
Momentum Isn’t Magic–Vindicating the Hot Hand with the Mathematics of Streaks - aldendaniels
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/momentum-isnt-magic-vindicating-the-hot-hand-with-the-mathematics-of-streaks/
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aldendaniels
> Even Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman affirmed this consensus: “The hot
> hand is a massive and widespread cognitive illusion.” > > Nevertheless,
> recent work has uncovered critical flaws in the research which underlies
> this consensus. In fact, these flaws are sufficient to not only invalidate
> the most compelling evidence against the hot hand, but even to vindicate the
> belief in streakiness.

The difficulty involves subtle misunderstanding of the probabilities involved
in random sequences: an error that is nearly "nearly equivalent to the famous
Monty Hall problem".

