
How Are the Kids? Unemployed, Underwater, and Sinking - tswicegood
http://baselinescenario.com/2010/11/20/how-are-the-kids-unemployed-underwater-and-sinking/
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jakarta
Some of these unemployed liberal arts majors can be really frustrating to me.
A few months back, I was talking to an old roommate of mine, who graduated 1.5
years ago with a BA in PHL and a foreign language (3.9 GPA), who has not had
any luck finding a job.

So now he basically sits around surfing the internet all day and looking at
foreign films.

3 months ago, I told him I would help him by getting him the right materials
he would need so that he could pick up some design skills, since he seemed
really interested in graphic design. Initially, he seemed interested, but then
he refused because he didn't like the idea of using pirated materials such as
a copy of Photoshop or Lynda tutorials. At the same time though, he refused to
pay for anything that would actually teach him what he needed to know.

I just don't understand how someone can drift sideways like that for so long.
The guy is not picking up any new skills or making any real progression in his
life. The other day he complained because he thinks all the clerical jobs he
is applying for are automatically going to women. It's like he makes up
excuses to cover up for his own laziness.

~~~
jon_hendry
It's not clear that a self-trained design novice would have much more luck
finding work, unless he turns out to have a natural genius at it.

He'd be competing for work against experienced designers, and against newly-
graduated design students.

~~~
sudont
I've seen novices do amazing design work. (Usually they go on to a portfolio
school after working for a few year or building a studio, though.)

Practice and good taste is pretty much the only things in design. Low-end
design is pretty much just keeping up with the lowest common denominator in
design style, anybody moderately trained--or self trained--can do it.

~~~
jon_hendry
"I've seen novices do amazing design work."

Sure. It happens. But that's not the way to bet.

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jimbokun
"In order to combat such structural problems, the need for investment in
_education_ and jobs is clear."

Um, didn't they say just before this that 50% of Bachelor's graduates cannot
find jobs requiring that degree? So how is funding even more Bachelor's
degrees going to help in the current environment?

~~~
sanswork
There is more to education than Bachelor degrees. Investment in the trades and
advertising them as legitimate and respectful career paths is one path that
could use more funding. Too many people push for a BA due to external
pressures saying you need a university degree to be considered a success
today.

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meric
I should be careful when I say this (but I'm not so take it with a grain of
salt and don't be offended.) The crash in the housing market is definitely a
good thing for young people. Here in Australia the prices of houses are
getting so expensive I don't think I'll ever buy one at this price, ever; It'd
just mean mortgaging myself to the hilt just to make some baby boomer rich
enough to retire comfortably. A housing market with house prices kept high
artificially is called robbing the next generation.

~~~
dasil003
Well I live in America, and at 32 I suppose I'm more gen x than gen y, and to
me the offensive thing is how much the government has bent over and used _my_
tax dollars to prop up the housing market, even though the whole thing was
based on people buying houses with loans they couldn't afford. The constant
specter of "falling home values" makes me sick, since it essentially means
that I can't afford to buy a home so that people who already _did_ buy homes
they couldn't afford get to keep them.

This type of mentality is why the US will lose to China. The government and
Wall Street only care about how the numbers look on paper. As markets evolve
and become more and more sophisticated, there is an increasing disconnect with
what these numbers actually mean for public prosperity.

~~~
roel_v
"This type of mentality is why the US will lose to China. The government and
Wall Street only care about how the numbers look on paper."

I was with you on the first paragraph, but this I have to LOL at. Have a look
into China's property market if you have a spare hour somewhere. It's in a lot
worse shape than the US one is, except that the bubble hasn't burst yet. House
prices have gone up 100's of % (yes, that's two 0's, and it's not a typo) over
the last few years basically because Chinese have little to no other options
available to them to store value/wealth in. There are whole cities that lay
empty and whose owners only bought the real estate for 'investment' purposes,
forced government lending is being misappropriated for unproductive real
estate development, insolvent loans are kept on their feet by the government
by rolling them over. Taxi drivers and maids own two or three apartments - and
all over the place, in tier one Beijing and Shanghai but also tier two like
Kunming, I mean this is not just some localized big city phenomenon (Kunming
is still huge by my standards, but well ;) )

The bursting of the Chinese bubble is going to hit China like a sledge hammer,
and I'm curious to see what their response is going to be. One way or the
other, it's going to affect the West in a major way, so I'm really hoping for
a soft landing, but we'll just have to wait and see.

~~~
dasil003
Good point. I am clearly ignorant about the Chinese housing market, and
probably Chinese economic weakness in general.

However I think my larger concern still holds, which is that fundamentally
Americans seem unwilling to face the reality of competing in a global economy.
Desperately clinging to bubble home valuations is but a minor symptom. China
has some bad problems to be sure (environment, demographic decline, etc), but
being competitive in the global marketplace isn't one of them.

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nickpinkston
Definitely correct that the great-recession is structural unemployment - not
just lack of demand.

The industrial revolution spawned public schools for giving all of society the
ability to take part - now we need another similar revolution.

However, whereas before it was the capitalist class doing this to get more
workers for their factories, it's now those very people trying to restrict
education into the same old mold.

We need a model that suits the emerging model: global, info rich, distributed,
open-source, democratized, etc.

This means we need: basic programming (using FOSS) for everyone, teach stats
before, teach FabLab tech, teach media literacy and research at a young age,
show them the vast amount of resources at their disposal.

Our kids really will be our future...

~~~
enjo
Or better, we need a generation of kids that are interested in science and
math and actually go into professions that _make_ things.

I haven't seen any specific numbers that break this down by degree. Given what
I've seen in computer science, I'd bet that engineers and other "hard" degrees
are doing just fine.

~~~
potatolicious
Generally yes, but not always.

The blind belief that getting a "hard" degree is a guaranteed path to gainful
employment is fraught with much of the same false logic as people getting
"soft" degrees. I saw much of this during my time in college.

The majority of the class did the work they were assigned and that was that.
There was very little effort put towards professional development, networking
with industry people, or building a solid portfolio of past work that is _key_
to succeeding in any enterprise.

When I left school, the people who were passionate about the subject - people
who pursued applications of their craft above and beyond the paltry
requirements of getting the degree, they were the ones who found jobs easily.
Of my peers from university, many are still underemployed today, or are
employed with poor prospects of either vertical or horizontal movement.

This goes beyond "hard" degrees. I'm heavily into photography besides being a
coder, and the number of people who go to art school for a photography degree,
clearly have not shot enough pictures, or put together a substantial
portfolio, but expecting to find employment or contracts is pretty absurd.

I see the same problem in CS and engineering - people who are under the
incredibly false presumption that just by finishing the degree that they are
employable. They're only _more_ employable right now because of the gigantic
shortage of qualified coders, but this situation won't last forever.

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nestlequ1k
The authors are so brainwashed by the system, they don't even know that the
policies they advocate for are the ones bringing the economy down. They
recommend more government investment in education, and a massive push for
government funded "Green Jobs". This seems ludicrous as government jobs tend
not to go to young people.

How about using scaling government back a bit to encourage a better business
climate? Look at the policy differences between Texas and California. It's no
surprise where the jobs migrate to.

Government needs to step back temporarily and let business flourish. A lower
corporate income tax and tax breaks for early stage startup investments seem
like it would go way farther than a huge push to add more government
employees.

~~~
Hoff
When government is in ascendence, the results are unstable.

When commercial interests are in ascendence, the results are equally unstable.

Neither lower taxes nor more regulations are a solution.

Nor higher taxes, nor less regulations.

And for those that hadn't noticed, government did step back from its
designated regulatory roles, and we then saw the largest economic crash in a
half century, we saw lies and fraud, profits from the increasing privatization
of two wars, and (what should be distressing to any capitalist) socialized
losses.

Reprehensible numbers of (legal) techniques for bypassing taxes, including the
so-called "Double Irish" of recent reports.

And what has been one of the largest transfers of wealth seen in the US.
(Which seems good if you're among the rich, until you realize you might not
have an economy nor enough potential customers.)

The numbers of corporate leaches is as troubling as the numbers of folks
claimed to be government leaches; commercial organizations that are
increasingly extractive, rather than productive.

As a startup, I want a level business playing field. As part of that, I want
cogent and adaptive regulation. And I don't choose to operate a business in
those regions that are increasingly or entirely commercially-focused; that
have ineffective or failing governments.

As with all things, balance. Less government is as bad as more government. But
that's just not a good sound bite.

~~~
anamax
> And for those that hadn't noticed, government did step back from its
> designated regulatory roles,

In what universe is pushing mortgages "stepping back from regulation"?

Regulation is systemic risk.

------
elptacek
"Even with good credentials, it is difficult for young people to find work and
keep themselves afloat."

I would like to see this statement better qualified. Of the dozens of people
I've worked with over the years, I can think of exactly three who had good
credentials out of college. Of those three, I know for a fact that at least
one had good credentials going in.

Conversely, some industries are still healthy and hiring. But it seems that
training and qualification often lag demand. I remember trying to peddle my
(albeit infant) UNIX skills in 1993 (also an economic recession). It took me a
while to get myself into the a geographic location with sufficient demand for
my skills. After which, I had zero trouble paying the monthly on my loans.
Fast forward to 2003, and the systems administrations market is glutted with a
bunch of fresh, young faces who've installed Ubuntu a few times and are
willing to work 80+ hours a week for 30K a year. That was my clue that it was
time to move on. One of them, anyway.

Kinda comes across as "F--- you, Jack, I got mine," I guess. But I don't like
this sort of doom and gloom pity party.

~~~
knieveltech
You might come across as indifferent to others but I choose to interpret your
post as an straightforward reminder that for most of us resume pips don't mean
shit. A degree's nice, internships are cute, but with or without them you've
got to hustle to make it.

Ten years ago I was intermittently working in the trades between bouts of
pizza delivery and crashing unemployed on a friend's couch. I get paid mostly
to write open source plugins for web CMS's these days. Occasionally I consult
if the project's interesting. I've got a decent house and an incredible wife.
My change of fortune is utterly unremarkable. No luck involved, just 10 years
of hustling, looking for the next angle, working on my skills and networking.

------
patrickgzill
Student loans are not able to be discharged in bankruptcy, is that right?
Assuming so, what will be the likely result if the current situation keeps up
for say 5 years - no job means no payments on the student loans, and at even a
low rate of interest, not making payments on the loan for 5 years will greatly
increase the amount due.

Some amount of defaults/resetting will be likely - the question is, who will
take the haircut when the loans are not repaid?

~~~
jon_hendry
The government, because't the loans are likely underwritten by the government.

~~~
pzxc
You mean the citizens, because the government doesn't have any money of its
own.

------
richcollins
Author's problem description: Students went too far into debt getting an
education that didn't lead to jobs

Author's solution: Invest more in the same education system

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cjy
Problem: No one is hiring people with degrees Proposed Solution: Spend more
money on education so that more people have degrees.

How does this make any sense? Shifting supply to the right will only reduce
the equilibrium wage.

~~~
jon_hendry
Alternately, the solution might be to spend money on education so that the
same people have more degrees.

Of course, when they get their second, or third, and still can't find work...

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alexwestholm
Is it really that astonishing, given that kids are all but pushed through 'til
they get "their" BA? Degrees are used as a quick proxy for minimum competency,
right? Well, if our highschools act as little more than babysitting systems
that push kids through no matter what (qualification to say this: I date a
public highschool teacher in Maryland, which is supposedly the best public
school system in the country. Consequently, I see it first-hand.), HS diplomas
will be rendered irrelevant.

This, in turn, means that college degrees become the base level qualification
required for a showing of minimum competency. Compare the ability of a recent
college graduate to secure employment with that of a high school graduate in
the 1970s, and I'd bet they're not far off...

~~~
jon_hendry
The 1970s high school grad likely had it better, as there were more decent-
paying factory jobs then.

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jhrobert
in our increasingly technological society, jobs require better logic skills,
that's a big change for humanity, social skills used to matter more.

------
yason
And who says there actually is genuine need for such masses of employees? Many
say that there ought to be, or that they wish there were, but that isn't the
same.

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phamilton
Not to boast, but merely to inform.

Technical degrees (like engineering) don't have problems like this. I'm a
Junior with ample internship offers for next summer, and my friends who are
seniors all have job offers coming in. Last I checked our school was ranked in
the 80s nationally, so it's not like we are MIT or Stanford.

------
jwhitlark
If you aren't, (or worse, can't even imagine), doing something without being
paid, people won't want to pay you to do it unless it's a real shitty job.
People call this "passion"; I call it being what you say you are. Otherwise,
you're just phoning it in.

