

Google is the new Microsoft - tristan_louis
http://www.tnl.net/blog/2011/10/09/google-is-the-new-microsoft/

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yariang
I took the overly sensational title as a warning flag and I was right. The
article seems to take weak premises and then founds size-able claims on them.

For example:

"Mean­while, Apple may obvi­ate the need for Google alto­gether with Siri as
it intro­duced a rad­i­cal new way to han­dle search on a mobile device (and
with the major­ity of Google mobile searches com­ing from iOS devices, the
search giant has to worry about this intrusion)."

That Siri utterly kills the need for Google on a mobile device (not even on
iPhones, on mobile devices) is complete lunacy. Not to mention that Siri is
not a radical way to handle search. Voice search has been around for a while--
see Vlingo and Google Voice Commands.

The rest of the article is just as bad about making tall claims with weak
evidence.

Another quote: "Mean­while, Google will con­tinue mak­ing large amounts of
money (prob­a­bly bil­lions) on its cur­rent offer­ing but may find it hard to
show the gen­eral pub­lic how it is rel­e­vant today."

Let's analyse a typical day in my life. (Although I will add, that I don't
think this behavior is limited to power users, but I'm sure plenty of non-geek
users share similar behavior.)

Wake up and check gmail. Use my Android phone to track my bike to work Check
Google calendar for any appointments Look up a good barbershop on Google Maps
after work Video chat with my mom using google chat at night

Maybe the article is right...Google is so irrelevant.

Edit: Wanted to add a link re: the article's last point
<http://venturebeat.com/2010/10/14/google-earnings-q3/>

~~~
tristan_louis
What I mean in the article is about cultural relevance. Much like Microosoft
today is making gobs of money but has been written off by many in the tech
community as an also ran (I'd love to create an also ran that's worth over
$100 billion :) ).

My suspicion is that, on a 10 year basis, Google may be headed in the same
direction.

One point I disagree with you on is about Siri. I strongly feel that Siri will
drive some mobile business away from Google and thus lower its hold on the
mobile search market. I suspect that it's only a question of time before
someone else creates a Siri-like feature on Android phones that bypasses
Google searches there. And remember that search is still what drives Google's
ad engine and targeting. When less searches are performed, Google might have a
harder time with targeting.

~~~
yariang
We're not disagreeing on Siri. The problem is there's a difference between it
driving some business away and it removing the need for Google entirely, as
your article first claimed. And then, once it's established that it will
remove some business, comes the question of how much business, in numbers.

As I said before, "Siri-like features" already exist, and they're out there--
used by a lot of people.

Besides, you claim the article is about cultural-relevance but you spend half
the time talking about sales and possible lost advertising-revenue in the
future.

Last thing, I didn't know what also-ran so I looked it up:

American Heritage Dictionary: al·so-ran A horse that does not win, place, or
show in a race. A loser in a competition, as in an election: "had enough
support to place him in the middle of the also-rans" (George F. Will). One
that has little talent or success: just an also-ran in the art world.

The first and last don't really apply. As for the second, only time will tell
I presume, but right now, my money is with Google. And although you claim the
tech community has written Google off, I don't see that happening. The
brightest software engineers who are not doing startups tend to view Google in
a positive light or as a place they'd like to work. In fact, it's become so
positive that the default in college campuses has become everyone wanting to
work for Google (or at least saying so). Not to mention Google has their hand
on a number of future-facing projects like the self-driving cars.

I would focus such articles more if I were you. If you're talking about
cultural-relevance, do so. If it's bad business forecasts, then do that. If
your prediction is for 10 years from now make that clear, and don't use a
title phrased in the present tense.

------
endtime
Having worked at Microsoft (which I pretty much only have nice things to say
about - it was a great environment in many ways) and now being at Google, I
have to say that they feel very very different. I feel like I have far more
ability to make things happen/be creative/take initiative at Google;
admittedly, I happen to be on a new, small team, but I don't think my
experience is _that_ unusual.

~~~
tristan_louis
An interesting insight and thanks for sharing it. A quick question for you:
were you at Microsoft before or after the antitrust lawsuit? I remember
dealing with Microsoft people before the lawsuit and it looked like the
environment was similar to Google today. After the lawsuit, people seemed more
tentative and process-bound. But maybe I have a wrong read. So an insider's
view is helpful.

~~~
endtime
Not that long ago - 2009. So, after the lawsuit.

