
US workers seeking jobless aid near 40M - sahin-boydas
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52758493
======
toomuchtodo
For context, this is roughy 25 percent of the US working age population (~157
million people [1]). BLS participation rate date can be found here [2], but
will have some lag to it.

[1] [https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/08/29/facts-
about...](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/08/29/facts-about-
american-workers/)

[2]
[https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000)

~~~
Izkata
For more context, the highest previously recorded was 24.9%, during the Great
Depression.

------
satysin
I'm not an economics nor employment expert so can someone who knows more about
this explain to me what the projections are for the next 6 months?

Are the majority of these people expected to find work again at the same (or
better) pay?

Are these lost jobs primarily "low skill" jobs? Or are there a lot of white
collar jobs being lost as well?

Obviously I see the stories about some tech companies letting people go but
the numbers are tiny compared to the numbers discussed in articles like this.

Just for clarification I am not American so I am asking as an outsider who is
quite shocked when I see statements like "a quarter of the US working age
population".

Where I am, France, there have been some job losses however nothing close to
the numbers I see in America. My gut reaction to such numbers is worrying,
perhaps even terrifying, but I know very little about how things work in
America so is this a case of the media playing with the numbers when in
reality that number will drop back to normal levels soon or is this a true
unemployment disaster for the long term?

~~~
andreilys
Many industries which employed these workers will not recover for a very long
time (if ever).

It also introduces the need for companies to automate operations, as a way to
hedge the risk of employees getting sick (or making customers feel safer
interacting with robots).

The other thing to consider is that during boom periods (like the previous
one), headcount is filled, regardless of whether the position is needed. Often
times one person can do the work of 6, but the department/company wants to
appear like it’s growing so it will hire 6. Now that economic belt is
tightening, we’ll see more bare bones skeleton crews.

So between those three things I think it will be highly unlikely that we
return to pre-covid unemployment levels for quite some time (if ever).

~~~
Theodores
David Graeber wrote about bullshit jobs - including those you describe.

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs)

We have all been in offices where there are bullshit jobs. If these jobs go
then it will be a while before they come back. These jobs are a bit like the
junk that collects on your computer, filling up space and doing nothing. All
of it was important once. But then you move to a new computer, install your
software and project files to get on with work never needing the detritus
again.

~~~
satysin
I had not heard of this book but just grabbed it on Kindle and read the
Preface and holy shit yes. So many bullshit jobs.

The first thing to pop into my head is a conversation with my wife a few weeks
ago about a couple of people she works with. They are "directors" in the
company but my wife has always commented that their jobs are literally
pointless. They "champion" things but never _actually_ get involved other than
to be updated on what is happening.

Basically they spent their time flying around the world for meetings but in
terms of real output they never actually had anything to show. They always
claimed to be "so busy it is crazy!" but never seemed to produce any
quantifiable results. It seemed the positions existed because it is just
_expected_ at a big video game company would have a lot of super talented
people at director level. Why I don't know, I guess because at some point they
were actually useful?

Since working from home and being unable to travel for these super important
meetings a few of these people are losing their minds as they have _nothing_
to do and surprise! everything else is going along just fine. The teams all
communicate as needed. Deliveries have still been made on time, etc. Sure
there has been some impacts with contractors and suppliers being shut but
nothing _internal_ has been impacted.

My wife is secretly hoping these positions evaporate as they have no
demonstrable benefit to the business. For almost 3 months these people have
done literally nothing and nobody has noticed.

------
Zenst
Makes you wonder if all the trials of universal basic income would be viewed
differently in light of current events as a model better suited to handle the
bumps in life and with that, overall make things more stable.

~~~
ThrowawayR2
A global economic collapse and mass unemployment is exactly when the funding
models for UBI undergo a catastrophic meltdown. So, we need wonder no more.

~~~
voisin
This response makes no sense. We don’t cancel unemployment, social security,
etc in these instances. UBI is meant to replace these programs and by giving
everyone a guaranteed income even in bad times, it allows some certainty at
the household level which reduces stress and keeps consumption higher to keep
the economy from melting down into a depression.

~~~
ThrowawayR2
Unemployment is pre-funded through unemployment insurance taxes for the
working years of the recipient. Social Security is pre-funded through SS taxes
for the working years of the recipient.

UBI is pre-funded by...? Nothing?

~~~
Zenst
Well, as UBI would moot unemployment payments and Social security payments,
then I'm curious why you would feel that nothing would fund it.

~~~
ChrisLomont
Those two don't even begin to cover anything near a UBI needs.

Do a simple estimate of how you think UBI would work and cost, and be sure
that it doesn't screw those already on SS, and post here. Every single place
I've seen the math worked out it needs either massive tax increases, screws
the needy already on some form of targeted assistance, or is woefully low.

And I've never seen one that is "universal." All are merely ways to tax the
working to fund the unworking.

~~~
Zenst
> Those two don't even begin to cover anything near a UBI needs.

Agreed, but then it's not a black hole as it will be spent, incurring sales
taxes, feed into companies, taxation again. So a fair percentage will already
feedback.

However, the tax system needs fixing before that and many loopholes need
closing and the whole system simplified as the current complexes mess just
creates loopholes that those with lots of money can and do abuse. So until the
whole tax system is sorted, many things will just fail or become another bolt-
on kludge and doomed to fail.

> be sure that it doesn't screw those already on SS, and post here

Not sure how you would discern that, but a rather glib thing to be saying and
naive at a time when many will be out of work. Though I'm sure that was not
the intention and probably better of with a quote by Margaret Thatcher “The
problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's
money.”

