

Competitor: Groupon is insolvent; could IPO be pulled? - jasonmcalacanis
http://launch.is/blog/groupon-panic-is-it-insolvent-and-could-ipo-get-pulled.html

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lVloose
Groupon is waaay over valued. They have until recently been giving tons of
stuff away. For example, everyone who signed up for emails telling them about
new deals in their area would receive a $10 or $20 Groupon cash gift to use.
This was widely exploited by people who frequent "cheating sites". These free
codes were also able to be stacked on accounts. People have used this method
to get everything from free dinners to free lasik eye surgery. All anyone had
to do was keep creating Groupon accts...and repeat. Im am 100% positive that
Groupon has been exploited for tens of thousands...maybe millions.

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anigbrowl
_People have used this method to get everything from free dinners to free
lasik eye surgery._

FX: disapproval with a tinge of jealousy 8-/

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rockya
Groupon specifically says in their S-1 that they do nothing to stop such
cheating.

Given that they are being valued based on subscribers and revenue, it's in
their interests not to stop cheating. If you want to create 100 accounts,
you're helping them sell this turd of an offering to the public.

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anigbrowl
I'm not seeing the News aspect here - there was extensive discussion of the
amended filings and the diminishing runway problem last week, and this article
doesn't do anything mroe than recycle existing speculation. I've been
skeptical of this IPO for a long time, but there's a lot of people milking the
firm's difficulties for pageviews rather than adding any meaningful content of
their own.

tl;dr this feels like a pile-on

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jasonmcalacanis
actually, this does have two very important pieces of information:

1\. an actual competitor going on record saying whey they are insolvent (and i
did that interview myself!)

2\. the quote from an investor who think the IPO might get pulled. (i got that
quote this weekend from someone deep in the industry).

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anigbrowl
OK, but:

1\. that interview was conducted 4 weeks ago - it's the first sentence of the
story, and the video has been on YouTube since July 25. So that doesn't seem
new to me. Plus, what he's saying is the conventional wisdom anyway based on
the prior IPO filings and as a competitor of Groupon he's obviously not a
neutral observer.

2\. 'A Respected Investor' saying something isn't a whole lotta news either;
it's just a sampling of the existing spectrum of opinion. Now, I know you have
to respect confidentiality, but without any context, how much weight should I
accord this investor? Is s/he respected in the tech sector, involved with the
company or its underwriters, has s/he invested in 1 successful IPO, 10, or
100? I'm sure you added this information because you consider the person's
judgment worth sharing, but in any sample of 10 professional investors you'll
be able to find a true believer and a skeptic.

I'm sorry my commentary came off as dismissive or hurtful. It just didn't
'click' with me, but maybe other people will find it useful in a way I didn't.

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jasonmcalacanis
1\. True it's from an older interview, but only 10-50k folks have probably
heard it. an additionally 10-50k folks know about it now. So, it's new to
them.

1a. It's newsworthy that a competitor would come out that strongly either way.

2\. If LAUNCH or I say it's a respected investor you can take that as a top 25
investor in the space. you know my rolodex right? :-)

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anigbrowl
Sure - I'm not out to argue, just clarify how I arrived at my opinion after
reading the piece. As you can see, I'm a pernickety fellow :-)

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jacekis
I bet $6bn from Google sounds pretty good around now.

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jasonmcalacanis
ya think?

