

Google Retools Its Flu Prediction Engine After Getting It Wrong - jakek
http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/10/31/google-retools-its-flu-prediction-engine-after-getting-it-wrong/

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refurb
I had a chance to talk to a guy who worked in the pharmaceutical industry and
it's amazing how much effort is put into predicting the flu season. Hundreds
of millions of dollars are on the line not just predicting how many folks will
get the flu, but also what strains will be the issue.

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rtkwe
Trying to predict the strains makes perfect sense, the flu shot is only ever
effective against the specific spread of strains that it's created against. I
presume there's some fall off of effectiveness or large increase in cost
associated with creating a flu shot that targets more strains.

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ggchappell
I find it interesting that when the Google predictions match the CDC estimates
poorly, the conclusion must be that Google got it wrong. But the CDC estimates
are based on patient data that has been filtered through doctors' judgements,
and those doctors only got to see the people that made use of health-care
services. I think it is a quite reasonable possibility that Google's
predictions were on the mark, and the CDC estimates were where the problem
was.

Of course, this is a science article for the general population. I imagine
there is significant analysis that were not being told about. Perhaps there
are very good reasons to believe that it is Google, and not the CDC, whose
estimates fail to match reality.

Still, I have to wonder.

