
Accuracy dominates bias and self-fulfilling prophecy [pdf] - mpweiher
http://internal.psychology.illinois.edu/~acimpian/reprints/jussim_BBS.pdf
======
nicolashahn
The title could have a hint that the paper is about social psychology in
particular. Here's my abstract of the abstract:

"Interpersonal expectations relate to social reality primarily because they
reflect rather than cause social reality. This is the case not only for
teacher expectations, but also for social stereotypes, both as perceptions of
groups, and as the bases of expectations regarding individuals. The time is
long overdue to replace cherry-picked and unjustified stories emphasizing
error, bias, the power of self-fulfilling prophecies, and the inaccuracy of
stereotypes, with conclusions that more closely correspond to the full range
of empirical findings."

I'm a layman when it comes to this but I'd be very interested in any
refutations of this paper.

~~~
virgilp
> I'm a layman when it comes to this but I'd be very interested in any
> refutations of this paper.

I doubt there can be refutation in the sense that "its conclusions are
obviously wrong".... the catch is how you interpret/act on those conclusions.

Yes, stereotypes become stereotypes because they are, or at least recently
were, "largely true" (in the statistical sense - i.e. not always but "too
often to ignore"). E.g., in my country, a lot of the petty criminals are
gypsies - it would be foolish to reject that truth. However, the stereotype
"gypsy = criminal" is still incredibly harmful (despite being grounded in
truth), both at the individual level (producing harm to innocents) and at the
group level (doesn't solve the problem, only contributes to making it worse).

The bigger problem is that people are ill-equipped to handle these thoughts in
the brain simultaneously: that a stereotype can be largely true, and yet it's
harmful/a bad idea to act instinctively based on the information it provides.
The correct responses to a stereotype are complex/should be based on reason -
those based on instincts/reflexes are very often wrong. But it's so hard to
resist the instincts, that often it's simpler to just dismiss the stereotype
as "false".

~~~
danieltillett
I am curious how ignoring the connection between being a Roma and your
likelihood of engaging in criminal activity is beneficial to anyone? It most
certainly doesn’t benefit the Roma.

~~~
yorwba
You don't have to _ignore_ it, but you need to take into account that a
stereotype that's say 60% accurate is still wrong 40% of the time. That
difference can affect the optimal course of action tremendously. E.g. if the
appropriate response to seeing a criminal is to call the police, applying the
"gypsy = criminal" stereotype would lead to the prosecution of many innocent
people.

Of course if you are able to accurately take probabilities and uncertainty
into account when making decisions, you can make good use of observed
correlations; but most people tend to be better at dealing with deterministic
rules (I certainly am) and need to consciously remind themselves not to
overestimate the accuracy of a stereotype.

~~~
danieltillett
It seems like you are arguing against stupidity, not ignoring empirical
evidence. Does anyone with an half a functional brain think all Roma are
criminals or the alternative that if a dozen Roma children descend on them on
the street that they are just wanting to say hello?

I try to treat everyone as an individual, but when I don’t have the
opportunity to do this I have no choice but to fall back on my life’s
experience. Sometimes this means I avoid people I wouldn’t if they looked or
acted differently, but I have no desire to be a victim to prove a point.

~~~
virgilp
People are stupid all the time. I am stupid. You are stupid. I'm sure even von
Neumann was being stupid all the time. Do not over-estimate your own
rationality - our instinctual responses are so frequent, that even if they're
right 90% of the time, they still make us behave badly/stupidly far more often
than we think we do.

> I have no desire to be a victim to prove a point.

This is not a dig against you. Humans - myself included - are incredibly
flawed (while being incredibly awesome at the same time). I just find it
helpful to keep this in mind. Personally, applying the stereotype as you say
is a very reasonable (even "rational") choice. I do it too. But, at the same
time, we should recognize the limitations of it - both you and I have probably
treated a gypsy unfairly. That's ok, I'm fine with that, I've given up hope
that I can be perfect - but, I still find that it helps to remind me that I'm
not. And what I'm doing is not helping them. I don't know how I could
_personally_ behave better (without harming myself) - but, that only means
that I don't believe a solution can be found at the "personal" level. I
believe "more of the same" will only work to reinforce the stereotype - so at
a policy level, I believe that policies are needed to actively help them raise
above their conditions (yes, maybe even positive discrimination is justified -
at least, it's _something_ ), while at the same time working to fight against
the symptoms (prevent the formation of "ghettos"/ their isolation in roma-only
communities).

But, I digress. This was about our own weaknesses, and how the stereotype,
even when grounded in truth, can be harmful, because of the positive feedback
loop it creates (which is very hard to break). In particular, a stereotype
tells you that e.g. gypsies used to be petty criminals (in large proportions),
but it does NOT tell you that they have to be so in the future. It does not
tell you the "why" \- maybe it's coded in their DNA. But what if (more likely,
IMO) it's actually coded in our social norms? Because those, we can change! It
takes effort, and time, but it's doable.

~~~
danieltillett
Lots of people with good (and bad) intentions have tried to “solve” the Roma
problem with very little success.

I don’t have any useful suggestions other than the observation that when Roma
immigrate to countries like the USA or Australia they completely changed their
culture and have been absorbed into the general population.

~~~
alexasmyths
"I don’t have any useful suggestions other than the observation that when Roma
immigrate to countries like the USA or Australia they completely changed their
culture and have been absorbed into the general population."

You cannot be a Gypsie/Roma in North America!

Their culture involves roaming in caravans from town to town, possibly doing
bits of labour, but mostly running scams. Kids don't go to school, they live
their lives as they please.

In France, I saw a Roma Caravan pull up on a local farmers property my French
friend indicated that if the farmer complained - he would get a physical
threat on his person and property (though I am aware that property rights /
routes are different in Europe).

Can you imagine a caravan pulling up on a Farmer's property in rural Alabama?
And threatening violence? They would be shot by the owner, or instantly run
out of town by the local cop who could give a rats behind about whatever their
'cultural status' might be.

The EU institutionally and systematically enables the 'Roma culture' \- which
is in and of itself nearly impossible to make civilized in the terms that we
understand. (Not necessarily saying anything against the culture other than we
don't know how to 'make it work' as the previous commenter observed)

How does the EU provide for the education of Roma children as they roam
through Europe? Health care? Taxation? Etc. etc..

I understand the impetus for the EU to protect culture, and also - you know -
history Nazism and all that - but the cultural situation may be 'implacable'.

Dissolving their cultural identity and putting them into a suburban school
getting accounting degrees might be the only way we know how to 'fix the
problem'. Which of course comes at the cost of cultural dissolution.

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marchenko
I know it is common practice in psychology to rely heavily on data from
student populations, but the tables 2 and 3 in the paper - the data on
stereotype accuracy - are almost entirely comprised of college students
(except for 1 low-n study that merely included students), predominantly
psychology undergraduates. Can we expect that these populations represent
average stereotype accuracy, or that their perceptions wouldn't calcify toward
exaggeration with time?

------
memebox3v
Everybody does hate me. I _knew_ it

