
On The Near Impossibility Of Measuring Returns To Advertising (2013) [pdf] - mau
http://justinmrao.com/lewis_rao_nearimpossibility.pdf
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vdaniuk
>Our data sharing agreements allow us to sidestep the intermediate metrics
that are often used.

I've looked through the paper and this bit showed some inadequacy of the
research process. I may agree that branding campaigns are really hard to track
and the study conclusions may apply to them. Running branding campaigns
without a clear conversion event is dumb though.

On the other side of the spectrum performance-driven(cost per action, cost per
lead, cost per sale) campaigns that include monitoring of all parts of
customer journey* offer precise ROI data that doesn't need inference.

This study is limited in its scope and doesn't take into consideration the
best methods for tracking ROI for digital ads, concentrating on still popular
but outdated method of branded advertising.

*Stimulus-Visit-Lead-Repeat visit-Sale-Repeat sale-Recommendation

~~~
Gustomaximus
> Running branding campaigns without a clear conversion event is dumb though.

Branding is about raising awareness and building positive connection with a
company image, not about direct selling. If you have a clear conversion event
it isn't branding, it is direct response advertising.

~~~
vdaniuk
Nope. If you have a clear conversion event for branding campaign, then you
have more data about the efficiency of the raising awareness campaign.

For example, a visitor stayed more than 60 seconds on the about us page or a
visitor watched a product explanation video, or number of product searches in
Google or Bing increased.

You may argue semantics, though.

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jgmmo
1) I'm suprised that this kind of work is going on at Microsoft, Google,
Yahoo, etc. Maybe I'm just unaware, but I thought that was interesting.

2) The conclusion of this paper is daunting. It sounds like it's impossible to
reliably know if a campaign was -10/+10% ROI. Only if the campaign was =50%
was it then just 'difficult' and not impossible.

Very cool stuff Randall and Justin.

