
Ask HN: How are you preparing yourself for a recession? - samrohn
We know the recession is going to happen sooner or later. Are you concerned about this effecting your profession. How are you preparing yourself personally, professionally and financially.
======
angarg12
I know this is a non-answer, but if you have healthy financial habits, you
won't need specific preparation for a recession.

I believe you can't time the market so 'preparing for a recession' is a moot
point. Instead set financial goals that align with your risk tolerance and
that make you comfortable.

That being said, the advice that I would give is just standard stuff. I think
some sources do a much better job at explaining those so I'll let others
answer. Big strokes is just the usual stuff: prepare a emergency fund,
contribute up to your employer match (or more), set up a budget, etc.

One important point is, if you invest in the market, just keep investing, no
matter what others do.

~~~
mr_tristan
I was just going to say "I'm just getting off my ass and tightening up my
financial habits".

For those of you like me, who like spreadsheets but don't know exactly where
to start, I can recommend Tiller Money:
[https://tillerhq.com](https://tillerhq.com). Sometimes the best place to
start is just "knowing where you stand". But there's lots of great tools for
personal finance. Pick one and hop to it.

But there's no secret magic there, and I'm not even sure I'm doing anything
different now that I shouldn't have already been doing 2 years ago. I may not
have spent so much money... but that's a _me_ problem not the "result of a
recession" problem.

~~~
whycombagator
> I can recommend Tiller Money: [https://tillerhq.com](https://tillerhq.com)

Looks interesting. Appears to be sign in with Google only, which is a shame.

~~~
scohesc
Moneydance is another paid option (with free trial) - pay once, and you own
the software. No cloud connectivity other than uploading file to Dropbox
(Optional) for anyone who respects the privacy of their financial data.

------
UncleOxidant
I always try to have at least a year's worth of living expenses in my
emergency fund. And that's in cash not in stocks or index funds - a lot of
people on places like reddit criticize this ("You're missing out on much
higher returns you'd get if you had it in the market!") but on days (weeks)
like this I'm glad it's in cash.

Beyond that, I tend to live by this maxim: "When times are good prepare for
them to be bad. When times are bad prepare for them to be good."

So the question to ask soon is how will you prepare for the post-recession
recovery? Asking this will keep you from despairing. Yes, this recession could
last a while and be quite nasty, but it won't last forever.

~~~
Kaze404
Why not government bonds? Unless your country's government crashes, you're
guaranteed to have your money back.

~~~
JohnFen
> Unless your country's government crashes

To be perfectly honest, I think there's a high enough chance that this will
happen (although still a low chance) that I have to take it into account in my
emergency plans.

~~~
Kaze404
If your country collapses to the point where it can't return your bonds, your
money won't be worth anything anyway :p

~~~
richard78459
Exactly. That's the problem BitCoin solves.

~~~
Kaze404
Except bitcoin is speculation, not investing.

------
achenatx
We have been preparing my professional services company for recession for the
last year or two. Key steps

1) carry no "real" debt, build cash reserves.

2) focus on profitability over growth. Typically driving growth means hiring
sales/marketing in advance of the growth and spending profit to do it. Adding
new services staff requires carrying about 90 days of the employee costs due
to non billing the first month, and the 60-90 days until we receive cash from
their first billings. Focusing on profit means raising prices, shedding
overhead, getting long term contracts, driving efficiencies.

3) Focus on recession resistant industries.

4) Focus on acquiring more local businesses to reduce travel overhead required
to clients.

5) no long term purchasing contracts

6) maximize credit line. Renew in advance of recession. During recessions
banks kill lines of credit. As we start to get into a recession we will max
out our line and then move the cash to another bank.

Personally

1) Shed leveraged real estate assets, they are very hard to liquidate during a
recession

2) Reduce debt usage

3) increase lines of credit

4) build 2 years of cash reserves (min of 6 months during normal times). Lots
of money is made during recessions, you need ready cash to take advantage.

5) reduce spending now

~~~
shostack
>"Focus on recession resistant industries."

How have you approached identifying these?

~~~
james_s_tayler
Think about the point of market entry for a given product or service.

Electricity? Pretty recession proof most likely.

Toilet paper and nappies? Going to need those any time regardless of what's
going on in the economy.

Going to the movies? Can always say no and entertain yourself otherwise.

Got into a car accident and need repairs? Going to happen regardless of
whether it's a recession or not. I might only choose to do the minimum and not
splurge but I'm still going to have to spend the money.

Etc.

------
JohnFen
I fully expect a recession (and a pretty severe one), but I'm not doing
anything special to prepare for it. The financial and professional habits I
already have are what I would do in preparation anyway. Primarily, this boils
down to being (largely) debt-free, having a large cash reserve, and ensuring
that my skillset is up-to-date so that I can get work or start a business in
almost any climate.

~~~
akhilcacharya
How big of a cash reserve do you recommend?

~~~
Jtsummers
The cash reserve should depend on your particular situation. True cash
(e-fund) should probably be 3-6 months of your expenses (that is, you should
be able to live on it, not party on it, but live on it). More if you're in an
expensive area with a home you can't easily get rid of, or think you'll have
difficulty getting a new job or income source.

I have a very stable job, I have about 3 months reserve. I want more, but
that's what I feel I need. It's more to cover things like emergency expenses
for medical or other causes than job loss. Other money is invested and that's
what I would touch if I ever needed to, but hope not to.

I have a friend who spent years in the video game industry, he has generally
kept close to a year in reserve. He got laid off _a lot_ over the years as
game projects wound down and they didn't need the staff. That gave him the
ability to continue living without any real fear or discomfort.

If you're particularly risk averse but in a stable spot, you may want to push
towards that higher number too.

------
christiansakai
I'm a little bit concerned, but just a little bit. I'm primarily a software
engineer, but in the past I've worked other white collar jobs and also blue
collar odd jobs (sushi-man, deli-man, laundry, dry cleaning) and I'm used to
hard labor, waking up early, etc. I think I'm pretty adaptable.

Financially, I don't have that much savings because I use the money to help
family members. But again, I'm not concerned about myself. I'm more concerned
about them.

~~~
jaybeeayyy
same boat. I've made it through a lot of tough events in my life and have
worked at a bunch of different jobs...never had much of savings due to life
events anyway. Also have never really expected to retire so having my
minuscule 401k lose money isn't really hurting me.

~~~
non-entity
I just have absolutely atrocious financial habits, so losing job atm would
probably be game over for me. I'm not overly worried about it, as I dont
really see that happening, and if it does, there isnt much I can do but roll
with it

~~~
JohnFen
Recession or not, you should probably begin doing the needful to solidify your
financial situation.

------
helen___keller
I'm thinking of moving a couple silly side projects off EC2 to a spare home
server to save $10/mo

Eating out less, cooking at home with family instead

Sitting on almost a year's salary in cash

pay off major debt, but I finished that a couple years back. If you have a
mortgage, it's about to be a great time to refinance the way bond yields are
looking.

The big one though, trying to work up the resolve to put to bed either my
netflix subscription or my hulu subscription. Probably hulu. Haven't pulled
the trigger yet.

~~~
nerpderp82
The cultural and intellectual purchases are for me, the point of existence. So
while tightening up the necessary and utilitarian aspects of life, I think we
should not put ourselves under austerity.

For instance, skipping three restaurant meals can be exchanged for an amazing
home cooked meal, with top of the line ingredients and drinks, while being
less than the cost of a single restaurant meal. Have a friend over as well, we
don't have to cut off access to whole world.

Don't trade the restaurant meal and hulu for a package of top ramen and 4chan.
No one benefits.

------
DrNuke
It will hit hard and mostly people struggling already from the 2008 crisis,
which is only going to further social unrest and claims to fight inequalities,
rightly so. As for the people following this website, it should strengthen
their resolutions to innovate at local level, possibly implementing solutions
already validated in comparable environments and markets (e.g. here in Italy,
more smart working like in the Northern Europe and more cultural business like
in the UK).

~~~
dvdhnt
It's funny - not in the "haha" way.

I don't want others to suffer; who really does? But no one willfully gives up
power.

We're so very close to being technically capable in terms of eliminating
poverty or feeding all people. Hopefully, the upcoming recession will push
over the edge towards total solidarity.

~~~
luckylion
> But no one willfully gives up power.

And they don't want to work hard to pay for others that don't work, either. If
_feeding_ the people is the goal, we can already do that. Trivially in first
world countries, but also world wide. It's getting everybody a high living
standard that's expensive and hard.

------
rayshan
I'm in the camp of more preparedness is better, and actions need to be taken.
For me it's about studying recession histories, stay calm, keep investing.

Sharing what I posted in another thread: my look into the 2008 Great Recession
was very helpful with my pattern matching. 98 out of 100 stocks lost money
during that recession, but most of them did super well during the longest
recovery period in U.S. history. Even AIG made people a bunch of money.

Here's the full dataset of 1363 mid cap + stocks that traded during the 2008
recession, and their performances: [https://shan.io/writing/learnings-from-
the-2008-great-recess...](https://shan.io/writing/learnings-from-
the-2008-great-recession/)

------
Ididntdothis
Stability is good. Think twice about joining the next hot startup. If VC
freezes up startups will run out of money quickly. Don’t take on debt.

I haven’t experienced it myself but from what I have observed it’s a bad time
to graduate from school once a recession hits. You won’t find a decent job and
when things get better companies will hire shiny new grads and the grads from
the years before will be left behind.

------
bluGill
Not really. I have a good emergency fund - something every good financial guru
has been preaching since before I was born. Beyond that, so long as I have my
job I'll keep living. If I lose my job - it won't be the first time - I'll
just cut my expenses and in the worst case I can flip burgers for something to
live on until this blows over.

------
eqdw
I am prepared by keeping 20 grand cash on hand.

I'm a foreigner on a work permit. I'll be fine _financially_ in a recession
but if I get laid off suddenly my legal residency is threatened, and I need to
have an emergency fund to deal with any fallout from that

------
markvdb
We bought a ridiculously cheap place in the countryside with over 2 hectares
(5 US non-SI units) of land in my significant other's native country. Holiday
house, place to meet friends _and_ dirt cheap insurance against many pitch
black swans.

~~~
yumraj
just curious, which country?

~~~
nerpderp82
Moldova

------
gao8a
Try to stay away from news and news aggregators :(

~~~
apineda
This is very very important.

------
decebalus1
Was working professionally through the last one and I'd say:

a) don't retire

b) if big corps are your thing, B2B big corps fare way better than consumer
oriented ones so if you need to decide between two job offers, pick the one
with the least chance of layoffs. There are no guarantees.

c) have cash standby. You should have this regardless of the state of the
market. If you need cash and a recession is coming, it becomes a self-
fulfilling prophecy. I learned to have at least one year of expenses in my
checking account after witnessing the layoffs in 2008-2009 and then the
trigger happy RIFs which followed well through the 2010's.

d) learn or be willing to learn or pivot your skills

~~~
ianbicking
I wonder if there's a good way to distinguish different B2B businesses that
are more or less effected.

For instance, my dad used to be a mechanical engineer designing large
construction equipment. Maybe 10% of equipment was replaced a year, so if
there was a demand for 10% more equipment one year then they'd have 2x sales.
But if there was a 10% decline in demand, then they'd have 0 sales, the broken
equipment was acceptable attrition.

So... that industry really sucked. But if the businesses have to pay for your
services just to keep running, then it won't be too bad. So server sales might
go up and down a lot, but AWS demand will be much smoother.

------
ipnon
As long as law and order doesn't dissolve I won't change anything. If anything
I would have more dynamic behavior in a bull market. I may be delaying a job
switch soon because my current employment is in a stable sector.

------
bravoetch
I've been preparing for it since 2008 when my business was effectively killed.
Anyone that felt 2008 has been expecting this. I saved, I split my eggs into
many baskets, I made a spreadsheet.

~~~
apineda
Mind sharing which baskets or type of baskets?

------
Accujack
It's going to affect all professions somewhat.

Personally, a long time ago I realized that stuff happens, and you have to
both deal with an unpredictable world and change. You can't really prepare
except in general terms, so you mostly make the best of the situation you're
in. Keep an eye on where you want to go with your life, and do your best to
make it happen, but accept that it may not and there may not be anything you
can do about that.

Professionally, my skills will be in demand one way or another no matter what
happens. Whether I'm cheaper to hire than the competition will depend on what
I'm willing to do to earn a paycheck at various levels. I've always wanted to
optimize that so I can spend more time living and less working, so I'm
planning to cut my costs long term and live cheaper if I can.

Financially... there's not much I can start doing now that will insulate me
against a recession other than the above. I don't have long term investments
except in myself and my skills, and I don't expect to ever be able to retire.
I will probably change careers at some point, however. In a recession economy
I will still be able to find a job, just maybe not at the pay level I'd like
or in an area I want to work in, but I'll survive.

If your hope is that you can prepare and thus insulate yourself from the
effects of a bad economy... it's only partly true.

------
EnderMB
I'm going to try and remove any kind of political talk from this as I can.

To be honest, with Brexit looming and uncertainty around a possible election,
I've spent the last year preparing myself for a recession. Over the last few
years I've noticed a few businesses in Bristol contract their operations back
to the capital, and salaries for software engineers overall have dropped, so
I've largely been preparing for what I thought was the worst-case scenario:

1\. A bad Brexit, lots of uncertainty, job losses, etc.

2\. Increase in price of essential goods. We have a cupboard full of long-life
essentials to last a few weeks, so we definitely won't starve. We're lucky
enough to have enough room to store things in bulk, so we don't need to panic
buy - and quite frankly I don't see a point in buying a ton of stuff I might
not need when there are loads of people that will definitely need it.

3\. A quick access fund with enough money to last me and my wife a few months,
if needed.

4\. In the long-term, increasing my skills in case I need to find a new job in
short notice.

Many of these steps will help for Coronavirus, but a concern of ours is what
our "worst-case scenario" looks like with a Pandemic AND Brexit.

------
james_s_tayler
Well... Preparing for the recession is something you start doing 10 years
before the recession, not 10 weeks before the recession.

It's just good habits constantly.

------
yathrowawaywn
After my last startup failed 5 years ago, I planned to buy my first house
somewhere in 2021, hoping that by then some crisis would happen to lower house
prices and to give me some time to pile up a bit less than 400k$. I don't want
to spend more than that on a house even if I had more money, I don't like
mortgages and I had no idea in which country I wanted to live, so renting was
a convenient option. I had to decide whether to put it in indexes or to save
cash in tax free saving accounts. I went with the saving accounts so I'm
sitting on cash.

I often half regretted not going with indexes but having 5 years of time
before settling down wasn't enough time to risk it.

If I lose my job I'll start eating into my savings and get a smaller house /
delay the stable house plan. The good side of being laid off, would be
spending more time with my sons.

------
wyxuan
Snapping up gold in what I see as the inevitable return of inflation.

The US is aggressively deficit spending in the boom times and in order to keep
up this unsustainable spending in the bust times, the gov't will have no
choice but to juice inflation.

~~~
hwatkins
I agree, there is really no palatable option than for the government than to
run inflation high, much higher than the 2% target. The next downturn will see
some extraordinary measures, maybe it’s already starting with the 10-year
treasury at .5%.

Really the only other option is a deflationary bust and nobody’s political
career will survive that.

------
toohotatopic
I believe that there won't be a real recession until globalization and
especially the position between China and the West is settled. No side will be
willing to slow down. As a consequence, there will be full demand for whoever
is willing to get something done.

However, there will be countries that will lose contact to the state of art in
some areas. As a consequence, I am sorting my belongings to be able to move
freely should that happen to my niche.

In the still not so unlikely event of a recession, I hope that I can use that
opportunity to start something new when rent and wages are cheap and
governments try to stimulate the market.

------
muzani
There will always be jobs. Just less unnecessary ones, more jobs revolving
around saving money. Some people are getting rich off a recession, so people
will still spend on luxury jets and wagyu steak.

Advertising will still be hot - companies will need money, so FB, Google will
still do well. Anything that saves money will do well. Anything that raises
efficiency and doing more with less manpower will do well.

My wife sells cheap lasagna and her business is absolutely booming now,
especially since things like KFC has become a luxury.

It's also a good time to hold on to cash, gold, and possibly crypto if you
expect deflation.

------
_bxg1
For a couple years now I've kept the vast majority of my savings in
investments (Betterment) to keep them from depreciating, and because I can
withdraw them in an emergency given 3 days' notice.

Obviously we're entering a season where that's to be avoided. So I'll probably
start redirecting my surplus income to my regular savings account for a while
just to give myself an extra buffer. Not _withdrawing_ from the market, mind
you, just taking a break from depositing into it.

------
outside1234
Save extra money - my experience from the dot com crash and financial crash is
that you should assume you are going to need 6 months of runway and so build
up an extra rainy day fund that you will have when it hits.

For me, this means deferring big purchases etc. until this is built up again.

Note, this is in addition to your retirement, which you DO NOT WANT TO SPEND
during the recession, since the stock market will have crashed then and you
will be spending premium dollars there that you want invested for the
recovery.

------
thrwaway69
My dad is taking all the low interest business/housing loans before some of
the banks grinds to the ground.

Buying poor shares expected to bounce back. That's about it, I guess.

------
phendrenad2
By trying to find a job in tech again so I can start saving up an emergency
fund. Otherwise I'll have to move to a lower COL region.

------
scarface74
Keeping my network strong, keeping my skills in tune with the local market,
and keeping my fixed expenses low.

Companies were still hiring contractors during the last recession, but they
could be more picky and you had to be able to hit the ground running.

As far as benefits, my wife works for the state education department doing an
“essential service”. We can switch to her insurance if necessary.

------
all2
I'd love to say I'm setting aside cash to buy real-estate, tangible goods, and
promising stocks.

But I'm not. I'm at the tail end of my school 'career' and I'm praying I
graduate. I'm continually coming to terms with the fact that I'm not nearly as
smart as some of the kids I'm in classes with. Maybe it has to do with habits?

~~~
merkaloid
i was nowhere near the smartest kid in my school or my uni class but Im more
successful than them by miles. Don't let it discourage you.

------
badrabbit
What recession? A 8% loss in DJIA is not a recession. 1987 had bigger losses
and no recession for example. 2012 had similary terrible oil prices and
losses. Why is everyone so eager to jump on the panic train. Both on
corona,this,Iran crisis,etc... The panic is more dangerous than the event,let
us try to be level headed without being naive.

~~~
orasis
Preparation != Panic

~~~
badrabbit
Buying toilet paper to last a few weeks is preparing,a few months is panic

------
amithedumbest
Maybe I am the dumbest. The official world gouvernance plan for this time
is/was(?) to freeze paying dividends; debt-repayment, interest, ...

To accomplish the commanded view, the companys will stop given quarterly
reports to the share market and start to give half-yearly reports... yearly...
telling us: "We do this for your customer satisfaction" ?!

------
Trias11
\- Bought condo outside of USA for cash with renter already in place -
bringing ~$1k/mo

\- Sold vested Co shares - not at the top of the market but 25% ago - before
crash - and bought place in NV with much lower cost of living - moving out of
CA soon.

\- Some cash saved that with frugal living could keep us going for a year or
so with no issues.

------
alistairSH
Nothing new or different. Keep a 6-month cash reserve, save for retirement,
live within our means, and hope for the best. We have plenty of monthly
expenses we can cut if needed, but won't until forced to do so. Beyond that,
anything else feels like panicking.

------
icedchai
I have 2 years of living expenses in cash. Hoping for a nice vacation from the
industry...

------
jotm
No debt, enough savings, a house with a lot of land out in the boonies, a
willingness to do any job. The 2008 recession did affect me, but I managed.
Will manage this time, too. As long as you can learn and adapt, nothing's a
problem.

------
askmeanyting
Plant a vegtable garden! Learn to make your own kombucha, just kidding but
learn to grow onions. People will kill each other over neccessaties like
onions, matches and deoderant.

------
anonuser123456
2000 puts on SPY @210, 5/10.

Everything in cash/treasuries before the market crumbled.

This was eminently predictable from a payoff perspective. The market lagged
the info coming out of China for a long time.

------
unstatusthequo
Trading options that reflect market pullback and volatility. VIX being one
method in short term. Trading put vertical options on SPY as another.

------
RickJWagner
I have studied asset allocation (per Bogleheads.org) and understand my comfort
zone.

Recessions are inevitable. I hope I'm ready, I feel like I am.

------
alpineidyll3
I work for a hedge fund that inverses the market. I'm mostly buying properties
offshore, and trying not to get divorced.

~~~
defen
Getting divorced during a recession is the worst. The recession takes half
your money, your spouse takes half of what's left, and the lawyers take half
of what's left of what's left. So you end up with about 12.5% of what you
started with.

~~~
alpineidyll3
Why is a market crash worse than a divorce? You lose half your stuff and your
wife is still there!

(jk tho, everything is good at home and I'm #teamvirus.)

------
mothsonasloth
Savings

Financial prudence

A good stock of bare essentials

Ensure my car and house is well maintained (no costly surprises)

Make sure I am demonstrating and showing value in my place of work.

------
Der_Einzige
It's happening now. Today is "black monday".

I've got broad market puts (SPY) as well as puts on Square which are literally
printing me money right now. If puts are consistently making money, than
you're likely to be laid off in the next few months. I consider market shorts
to be a form of insurance for this reason. If I lose my investment, than it
means I keep my job. If my investment moons, than I'm about to lose my job.

~~~
senordevnyc
Why Square?

~~~
Der_Einzige
Only company that was up on the first day of market panic so the puts were
super cheap.

Ended up printing me money today though :)

------
swyx
I went through a few scenarios with a developer lens here:
[https://www.swyx.io/writing/coronavirus-
recession/](https://www.swyx.io/writing/coronavirus-recession/)

TLDR:

\- If you make buying decisions (e.g. running a company or a department):
think about how you can __turn fixed cost into variable cost __. If you were
kinda half remote anyway, maybe go full remote or swap the office for a
coworking space subscription. Hire contractors instead of full-time. __Buy
SaaS services instead of build internally. __Focus on conversion and retention
rather than inorganic user acquisition. \- If you are a freelancer or agency:
Think ahead to how your clients could be affected - you may need to
aggressively grow your funnel while also __planning for more downtime
__between work. \- If you are an employee: You can 't do much about your
options or 401k. But recognize that you are doubly long the economy in terms
of both your stock compensation and your job (and real estate in affected
states). \- If you work at a startup that has a cash burn necessitating future
fundraising, be aware that this can become very very relevant to you __if the
funds don 't materialize __, through no fault of the founders. Think through
second order effects - the funds may not materialize not just because VCs are
less willing to part with cash, but also because the startup itself may fail
to meet targets because of the broader economic environment.

------
OrgNet
Anyone think the housing market will also crash at the next recession?

------
davidw
I'm much more worried about the virus than a recession. The latter... is going
to suck, for a lot of people, but with the right policies in place, we can get
through it. The virus is simply going to kill a lot of people if it's not
checked.

~~~
pengaru
Not trying to be cold-hearted about it, but if the virus ultimately kills off
a lot of sick/edlerly people, wouldn't the aftermath of that be a boon for the
economy?

~~~
davidw
> boon for the economy

Maybe, but at best this means... buying a few more things, taking a few more
trips.

Whereas

> elderly people,

Is my mom and dad.

~~~
pengaru
> Maybe, but at best this means... buying a few more things, taking a few more
> trips.

I can think of some better effects than that. How about a bunch of California
homes coming on the market and collecting property taxes proportional to their
current value for the first time in decades?

~~~
csa
IIRC, it is common for houses to be inherited after the owner’s death, and the
tax basis is inherited with the house.

As such (at least in my area on the Central Coast), many of these houses just
become (high) market rate rentals with no change in tax status.

I could be wrong about this, but I know some people who own some properties in
the area who tell me that’s the case.

------
person_of_color
Putting my USD in an 2.63% Indian FCNR(B) account

------
unlinked_dll
make sure you're someplace with a few quarters of runway and make yourself too
valuable to lay off

------
mister_hn
just buy so much dip as you can

------
znpy
If you know that you have to prepare for the incoming recession it's probably
too late to do it.

~~~
theandrewbailey
It depends on how far out you're looking. If you started preparing when the
yield curve inverted over a year ago[0], you've had plenty of time to prepare.

[0] [https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-03/u-s-
yi...](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-03/u-s-yield-curve-
just-inverted-that-s-huge)

------
zackmorris
My recession started around this time last year due to some health issues I
wasn't aware of, causing the most severe burnout I've ever had, which led to a
falling out with my job. So take what I'm saying with a grain of salt:

* Don't count on contracting or remote work as a fallback. I've been trying my luck at it without success. The last time I did it was 5 years ago but it's totally saturated now, with most of the clients going through upwork.com and freelancer.com with 10-50 applications per gig. Go see for yourself under common searches like PHP or React.

* The jobs really will all dry up. Go on something like indeed.com right now and see how many there are. Now imagine the same scenario after everyone has cut their workforce by 10-50% like after the dot bomb in 2000 or the housing bubble popping in 2008. Your selection may change from software developer to driving a delivery truck so it's good to have something you can fall back on. In my case it's moving furniture, but, at 42 I'm getting too old to do it. There will probably always be work in warehouses and restaurants though, like in the old ITT tech commercial.

* Assume that any possessions other than big ticket items like a home or car are only worth 10% of their value. You can get 25% at a pawn shop generally, but not after a recession when everything gets dumped on the market in triplicate. So all of the consumer electronics in your home are probably worth less than $1000 and won’t sustain you for long even if you sell all of them.

* Find your poorest friends or relatives right now and ask them how they get by. This is a good time to learn about donating plasma, collecting unemployment insurance, signing up for food stamps, etc. You’ll be able to make about $300-600 per month through these sorts of tools, but it will take all of your time. The US no longer has an operational social safety net (compared to healthy economies in, say, Europe) so the psychological toll of poverty has a way of locking people into its cycle by paying just barely enough to keep you in a state of slow decline. Best to avoid that by arming yourself with knowledge and knowing your rights.

* Consider getting involved in politics. The problems looming in this next recession are severe and exacerbated by the fact that no real legislation happened to correct the original causes of the 2008 great recession. Expect there to be no cash or credit available. Millions of people will be calling for reforms and there could be ways to help in causes like a new version of Occupy Wall Street. Assume that politicians are asleep at the wheel on this so any help from them will either not come or be too little too late. We’ll have to pick ourselves up by our bootstraps again.

This will be the third severe recession I’ve gone through since I graduated
from college in 1999. Unfortunately my brain has adapted for survival instead
of contributing to society at the level I had hoped for. I’m planning on the
next recession lasting at least 3 years, starting around the time of the
election. If it starts by summer, then Trump will almost certainly lose, so in
the meantime we can count on an influx of capital from the private sector to
keep us afloat. But next winter could be quite grim. Try to have enough money
on hand to make rent until spring, roughly $3-6,000 for the average American.
Note that the bottom half of the country has no savings, so there’s nothing
they can really do to hedge against what’s coming.

------
fortran77
I'm learning Rust. It helps to have a recession-proof skill. And there's a lot
of software that will be re-written in Rust over the next decade to make the
world safer in general.

~~~
probably_wrong
If you need a recession-proof skill, I believe you should be learning Python
or Java.

~~~
stOneskull
catching pythons and making cups of java

