
Andrew Yang qualifies for first DNC debate with 65k unique donors - yasp
https://www.axios.com/andrew-yang-2020-democratic-primary-debate-6b64b6c5-b256-4056-8385-3d108038cd25.html
======
everdev
Another topic Yang brings up frequently besides the Freedom dividend is
retraining.

Automation in retail, driving, etc. has the potential to make jobs obsolete at
a rapid pace. Rather than trying to fight to save jobs that can be done by
machines the idea is to retrain people in these industries to do things
machines aren't good at.

The idea is to not slow down progress but also not abandon people who happen
to have built a life in a dying field.

~~~
Alex3917
He does frequently bring up retraining, but in the context that government-
sponsored retraining programs have between a 0% and a 15% success rate. E.g.
the graduation rate for former military employees who then go to college is
0%.

So retraining isn't a solution to jobs being lost by automation and even if we
get significantly better at retraining it's still probably not a solution.

~~~
bazooka_penguin
Are there any retraining programs that have more than a 50% success rate? Has
retraining ever been a realistic option for job loss? Seems more likely the
next generation would make up for the lost jobs on paper

~~~
elliekelly
I always hear about these “retraining programs” but I’ve never met anyone who
has done one. Where do these programs even happen? What are they training
people to do? Is it offered to people who file for unemployment or meant to be
more proactive?

~~~
abecode
I teach data science at a masters programs (University of St Thomas graduate
programs in software in the twin cities) and we have some students who are
part of retraining programs. Apparently if a big company lays off a
significant chunk of workforce and off-shores it, there are programs funded
through corporate taxes that the laid off workers can use to go to school. The
students in my anecdotal experience (2 semesters so far) are pretty good. I
think there must be more than one such program because some students required
a sign off from me but others didn't. It's just a few students that I know of
so it's not a super large scale but it's nice to know that such programs exist
at least.

~~~
elliekelly
Very interesting, thanks for sharing. I'm pleasantly surprised to hear the
programs include such high-level courses.

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ed_balls
Prediction: UBI won't go anywhere, because it has a branding problem. If we
rebrand it as a Negative Income Tax it may actually go somewhere.

~~~
chadmhorner
That's what the "Freedom Dividend" branding is all about!

~~~
ed_balls
I don't think that's good enough. Dividend still have a connotation that you
are getting a handout.

~~~
minton
UBI is a handout is it not?

~~~
_red
300M people x $1000 per month.

Where does that money come from? (taxes?). What will stop inflation from just
negating that 1000 gain?

UBI doesn't have a political problem. It has a math problem.

~~~
gremlinsinc
Let's look at the other side. 65% unemployment.

Everyone is homeless, or starving or both.

These people used to spend 100% of their paycheck at Walmart, local grocers,
fast food. Now they spend 0.

So big retail/fast food shops close, more jobs lost.

UBI puts money in people's hands --the people who spend it all in their own
local economy.

They can do more to get some of that back through taxes so it's more like
'recycling'. People with money aren't going to commit crimes to feed their
family. People w/ rent/food/health ins are happier, more productive, less
stressed, and more motivated to work on self-betterment.

Hell, if I had an extra 2-3k/month from a UBI program, I'd quit freelancing
and go all in my SaaS I'm building which if it's successful could have at
least 10-20 new jobs created. How many other entrepreneurs could have better
success if they didn't need to put in 50-60 hours a week on their day job?

You can say it'll never happen, because you think everything will always stay
the same, but that's just not the case. 40% of jobs never to be replaced by
2030 is a solid estimation.

What is your suggestion with what we should do w/ that sector? You can't
retrain when there aren't jobs for them to retrain to. Should we just
euthanize anyone who hasn't worked in the past year or two?

------
KuiN
You qualify for the debate by getting the right number of _donors_? Wow ...

~~~
MichaelApproved
How would you propose a network select candidates for a debate?

~~~
Steltek
I thought traditionally it was polling numbers. But maybe that was just the
RNC clown car from 2016...

~~~
rexaliquid
The DNC is using two criteria for qualifying for the debates. One is the
traditional polling above 1% in three separate recognized polls. The other is
a minimum number of donors (65k), with a minimum of 200 in each of 20
different states.

Meeting either criteria qualifies a candidate for the debate, and should the
field of qualifying candidates grow to more than twenty (gods forbid) priority
is given to candidates that meet both and then by polling average.

~~~
everdev
65k donors doesn't seem like a lot especially since there's no minimum
contribution. So raising $65,000 can put you on the DNC debate stage
regardless of how you poll?

A GoFundMe could raise more than that.

~~~
EpicEng
How easy do you imagine it is to get that many people to put their name on a
list saying they want you for president?

~~~
everdev
Exponentially easier than polling 1% nationally.

~~~
EpicEng
The comparison was to a random GoFundMe, not national polling. Besides, the
field is limited to 20. A candidate may still have to meet the polling
threshold depending on how the field does.

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thanatropism
The Republican field had daytime and nighttime debates in 15. But that meant
that the daytime people only debated with daytime people trying to get a spot
on the nighttime. The debates were horribly crowded too.

The best situation would be something like n-fold cross-validation. With 20
candidates you have 1140 possible arrangements for three-way debates. You have
what, 40 to 60 weeks to converge on a candidate? Enumerate those 1140
arrangements, pick M integers from a lottery with white balls and hold weekly
debates, preferably all over the country.

For any given candidate, his probability of being on any single debate is
14,26% [0]. The probability that he's in at least one of 40 debates is 99,78%.
If this happens, give this candidate an extra slot in the very last debate
before primaries.

[0]
[https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1%2F20+%2B+(19%2F20)*(...](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1%2F20+%2B+\(19%2F20\)*\(1%2F20\)%2B\(1%2F20\)*\(19%2F20\)%5E2)

------
beat
I'm currently reading Yang's book _The War on Normal People_ and it is kind of
terrifying. I highly, highly recommend it in preparation for this presidential
race, whether or not you're a Yang supporter. There is a great deal of food
for thought. (full disclosure: I'm a Yang supporter and donated twenty bucks)

So, a few observations about him as a candidate. First, I think he's the only
candidate really looking outside the box. It seems to me the political debate
in this country is basically liberals saying the solution to our problems is
more 1960s welfare and 1970s regulation, and conservatives saying the solution
is less 1960s welfare and less 1970s regulation. We're stuck with a 50 year
old model for the domestic responsibilities of our government.

Andrew Yang is one of us. He's from the startup community, and has seen up
close how disruption works. He understands technology, and he understands
numbers. And what he sees as a result of this understanding is grim - tens of
millions of working-class and middle-class jobs slated for obsolescence in the
next couple of decades, and no real alternatives in place for those about to
lose their livelihoods. The social implications are terrifying. Don't like his
UBI solution? Come up with something else, or commit to ignoring the problem
until there are bread riots.

Another thing that strikes me is how he comes across. He reminds me of two
important recent politicians - Barack Obama, and Bernie Sanders. Obama,
because he's so clearly a _nerd_. It's such a rare pleasure to listen to a
politician that I think is actually much smarter than me and not pretending
otherwise. And Bernie, because Bernie's superpower isn't his policies - it's
his integrity. You _know_ deep down that Bernie isn't lying to you. I get that
same vibe from Yang, and that's a very powerful thing these days.

Anyway, just some observations.

~~~
normal_man
The goal of government is to create the most stable, safe, and happy
environment as possible for as much of the population as possible. What about
the startup community, who obsessively chase endless growth, "innovation" and
"disruption", makes you think they would be good at achieving that goal?

~~~
sundbry
That's in fact not the stated purpose of the government at all. It is not a
utilitarian construct.

~~~
beat
We, the People of the United States, in order to form a more perfect Union,
establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common
defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to
ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the
United States of America.

There you go. Stated purpose of our government. And I think several of those
clauses apply to using UBI as a solution to our rapid economic dislocations.

------
Simulacra
I gave money to Yang for this because I think having an Asian American on the
stage would be a good thing for the debate.

------
pastor_elm
The neoliberal media is already trying to paint him as the white nationalist
darling candidate[0]

It is getting ridiculous.

[0][https://www.vox.com/2019/3/11/18256198/andrew-yang-gang-
pres...](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/11/18256198/andrew-yang-gang-presidential-
policies-universal-basic-income-joe-rogan)

~~~
krapp
That article doesn't seem to be trying to paint Andrew Yang as a white
nationalist. It literally quotes him disavowing support from white
supremacists and their beliefs.

It does say that his popularity on the internet extends to 4chan, where
racists make racist memes about him, and it quotes a tweet[0] by him regarding
a New York Times article[1] about death rates among white people, but I don't
really see that as white supremacist.

[0][https://twitter.com/andrewyangvfa/status/1010207553324806150](https://twitter.com/andrewyangvfa/status/1010207553324806150)

[1][https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/20/us/white-minority-
populat...](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/20/us/white-minority-
population.html)

------
OrgNet
The Superdelegates are OK with it, I guess... or are the Superdelegates (AKA
supercitizens) still a thing since the 2016 fiasco?

~~~
Someone1234
They still exist, but they now only get to vote on the second round if the
first round fails.

The biggest problem with them from 2016 wasn't their actual vote, it was that
many media outlets (including Google) listed Superdelegates non-binding
preference as a delegate in the totals, making one candidate seem far ahead
before many states had even voted.

Unclear if that issue is resolve, because it is up to the media. This article
as a screenshot from 2016/discussion:

[https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/sanders-vs-clinton-
delegat...](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/sanders-vs-clinton-delegate-
count/)

------
i_am_nomad
Ha ha ha ha, no. He qualifies for the first debate because the DNC allows him
to. If they didn’t want him there, they’d bend and rewrite the rules to
prevent it. Witness Larry Lessig’s experience with this:

[https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/2015/1...](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/2015/11/2/9659014/lawrence-
lessig-quits-presidential)

~~~
snowwrestler
My recollection is that Lessig was pretty clear from the start that he was
running just to raise the prominence of his position on campaign finance, not
to actually become president. IIRC he said he would resign after passing one
bill.

I can see why party leadership would choose not to participate in what was,
from their perspective, a stunt--not a serious campaign for the White House.

~~~
millettjon
The point is that they changed the rules out from under him.

~~~
Latteland
It's correct that they changed the rules to exclude him and most people don't
like that in principal. But it's also true that he was not a serious candidate
because he said he wanted one bill passed and then he'd resign the presidency,
and that one bill wouldn't make it through congress anyway.

~~~
dllthomas
> that one bill wouldn't make it through congress anyway

To be fair to Lessig, if the single issue "pass this bill" candidate was
actually elected President, congress would feel a lot of pressure to comply.

~~~
dragonwriter
To be fair to accuracy, members of Congress who campaigned against the bill
(as any who planned to oppose it would likely to be forced to of a major party
nominee had it as their entire platform, since the question would be
undodgeable) would face no meaningful pressure to vote for it, as their
constituents would have weighed and accepted their opposition.

~~~
dllthomas
Yes, anyone who is elected actively campaigning against the bill would
presumably not feel any pressure to vote for it.

------
clarkevans
Andrew Yang is popular for his promotion of Universal Basic Income ("UBI").
I've had success framing UBI as monthly compensation from government for the
portion of natural space which has been reallocated to private ownership. In
that regard, UBI could be funded though a national land value tax and though
copyright/patent fees, both being government granted monopolies, carved from
what would otherwise be public space.

EDIT: One of the common critiques of UBI is that it's a "give away". Instead,
I see UBI as a payment for natural rights (to walk, hunt, eat and sleep where
ever one wishes) that are taken by society though its allocation and
enforcement of private property. Hence, in my view, the concept of private
property and UBI are intrinsically linked. Given this frame, what this natural
right is worth is an important discussion to have -- should society provide
basic shelter and sustenance in exchange? Free market perspective gives us an
option, it could just be cash without any strings or requirements. But
importantly, it's not a "hand out", it's compensation for a taking.

~~~
IfOnlyYouKnew
I think you’re being downvoted for the mental gymnastics you’re attempting to
haphazardly tie UBI to your personal obsession with land taxation.

------
onlydeadheroes
This is the guy whose site showed 65k after you changed your local date/time
to the debate date, correct?

~~~
gridlockd
It's actually reasonable. There's a little animation that show "live" updates
to donation value.

If you were to implement this, would you have every active client update live
on the actual amount of donations, or would you just calculate the trajectory
from past donations?

Unless the user is going to keep the browser tab open for days on end without
reloading, this is going to be a fair and efficient approximation of the
actual value.

~~~
onlydeadheroes
I don't disagree with you, querying for every page served could easily get out
hand.

Strictly speaking, I didn't even write the comment above. Someone else did, it
got censored, and I found that disgusting, so I copy pasted and posted it. You
can find the original at the bottom if you have showdead.

------
anth_anm
Change the rules please.

or don't and I'm giving Matt Christman a dollar.

------
bigbadgoose
Is he a stalking horse for UBI, _ahem_ Freedom Dividend™?

~~~
guipsp
What?

~~~
bigbadgoose
Apparently, testing revealed that "Freedom Dividend" polled higher with
conservatives than "Universal Basic Income". So, in a ham-fisted wide appeal
play, he's rebranded UBI as "The Freedom Dividend"

[https://www.yang2020.com/policies/the-freedom-
dividend/](https://www.yang2020.com/policies/the-freedom-dividend/)

––

This brings us to our second point, which is a conjecture that such a move has
a sniff of witting or unwitting use as a test candidate, not for serious
contention of nomination, but as an indicator of conservative support for such
a concept. ("stalking horse")

------
intrasight
I have a different spin on UBI to address automation. I proposed that any
human job done by an automaton must be backed by a license holding human. And
humans can only own a single license. But a license is something that you are
- not something that you own (no sell/transfer/inherit). So for example to
"build" a truck driving automaton, you must also "hire" the license holding
human.

~~~
mr_spothawk
it's a clever mechanic, but recursively... what if you want to automate
automaton creation? must you then develop a licensing body for automaton
creators? and who will administrate this most important committee?

~~~
intrasight
it automaton licenses all the way down ;)

