

Ask YC:  How scientific is the YC selection process? - amichail

Since YC is all about seed funding, I wonder how they make predictions as to whether a startup will succeed.  Is it mostly a gut feeling about whether users will want the service or do they actually look at real-world data?<p>If a startup already has growing traffic, then that could be promising.  But what if it is not at that stage yet?  Does YC consider the traffic growth of the most closely related startups?<p>On a related note, check out this blog post about how to identify promising web app ideas:<p>http://www.allfacebook.com/2007/11/mindrosia-app-ideas-generated-through-horseplay/
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pg
We look at the founders, if that counts as real world data. We don't look at
much else.

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sharpshoot
No one cares about the idea. In fact we applied with a different idea to
snaptalent but it was the team that mattered.

We could change our idea again and be confident of smashing it out the park
because our team is super solid, motivated and hell bent on success.

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amichail
Isn't that risky? After all, it matters to you whether you are pursuing your
own idea. If not, then it's like working for someone else.

So if you can change your idea at any time (or are encouraged to do so), how
do you know it would change to something that you have contributed to? Isn't
an idea change likely to break up the group?

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SwellJoe
You've misinterpreted his comment. YC doesn't tell founders what to work on.
No one is going to pg and saying, "OK, you said our idea sucks, so what do we
work on now?" Instead, pg says, "Your idea sucks." And the founders either
say, "We disagree, but why do you think so?" or "Yeah, we noticed. We're
thinking about switching to this...what do you think?"

In fact, pg is very likely to think your idea sucks at some point in the
process. I still think he's a little iffy about ours over a year later.

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NewWorldOrder
I think Sequoia Capital has some decent guidelines for what to look for:
<http://sequoiacap.com/ideas/> However, if you were to ask Marc Andreessen the
only thing that matters is the market: <http://blog.pmarca.com/2007/06/the-
pmarca-gu-2.html> \-- according to Marc, the team doesn't have to be
superstars, they just have to be "good enough"

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ivankirigin
The question every investor would like asked is how to distinguish good
startups from bad. I think most collect hueristics applied to a few numbers
and gut feelings.

Founders seem to not get along? Seem not passionate enough? Market too small?
Market too hard to win? Not builders?

All lame.

Persistence, vision, and flexibility are things I've repeatedly heard help
predict winners.

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skmurphy
In the sense that the YC folks explicitly state their hypotheses and have
publicly revised some of their guidelines in light of experience (e.g.
stressing need for teams, adjusting minimum age range upward) it's more
scientific than most of what other VC's disclose.

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samwise
The things that usually bring down startups tend to be team related. Even
though having a good idea is important it's not as critical. By focusing on
the team YC is attempting to combat what is most likely to hinder success.

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john_gunther
I believe YC uses the same criteria that Walmart uses to select its suppliers
and vendors. Or maybe CostCo!!!

