

The Key to Spotting Disruption Before it Happens - skmurphy
http://blogs.hbr.org/anthony/2010/05/the_key_to_spotting_disruption.html

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skmurphy
Some key paragraphs on why incumbents ignore disruptive technologies:

How could a relatively flat line be scary?

It just looked so eerily familiar. Go back and look at what happened to CD
sales from 1996 to 2001. Or check out newspaper company revenues from 1996 to
2005. Or Kodak's film sales during the 1990s. Or Blockbuster's revenues in the
early part of the 2000s. Or Digital Equipment Corporation's revenues in the
1980s. And on and on and on.

In the early days of transformation, market leaders tend not to feel deep
pain. The transformation takes root away from the mainstream, or in a
seemingly non-connected market. It's not yet good enough for mainstream
markets. Or, the overall increase in consumption acts as a "rising tide" that
lifts the boats in the mainstream market. This makes it easy for executives to
say, "I get what you are talking about. But my business is healthy! It's all
overblown."

