
Tesla Model 3 Is Replacing Toyota Prius as Green Car of Choice - prostoalex
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brookecrothers/2018/08/05/tesla-model-3-elon-musk-tesla-earnings-toyota-prius-2018-prius-prime-2018-toyota-rav4/#85938a849da8
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newfocogi
The author supports the title of the article based on the Tesla Q2 report that
the Prius has been the most common trade-in for the model 3.

When I drive daily in a sea of Prii (pl. of Prius), and I get excited when I
see a few model 3's a week, I feel like it's too early to make that strong of
a statement.

~~~
jackhack
These two competing cars aim at very, very different markets. Forbes'
breathless prediction of Toyota's hybrid market demise is a myopic opinion
piece and a stretch of wishful thinking.

The lower-tier Prius' are profoundly less expensive than even the mythical
base-model Model 3 (which the article points out, isn't available; Tesla has
said they hope to offer the base model by the end of the year). A 2017/2018
Toyota Prius can be driven off the lot for $20,000. The Model 3s that have
been sold are $40,000+. That makes A Prius Prime plug-in hybrid the most
direct competitor. I trust the sales figures quoted are accurate.

But there's more to it: Price, availability, utility, and maintainability are
big considerations once you leave the ultra-luxury price range (100k+) that is
Tesla's core market. The Toyota wins in all these aspects, in my opinion.
Where Toyota does not compete is the "status symbol" market.

~~~
Alex3917
> A 2017/2018 Toyota Prius can be driven off the lot for $20,000. The Model 3s
> that have been sold are $40,000+.

The Prius is basically the best car on the market if what you care about is
the combination of safety, mileage, and cost. Until the model 3 able to pass
the NHTSA safety testing, I don't see Tesla being able to make any serious
inroads into the core Prius demographic. FWIW this is their current 'rating':

[https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2018/TESLA/MODEL%2525203/4%252...](https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2018/TESLA/MODEL%2525203/4%252520DR/RWD)

~~~
thenewwazoo
NHTSA hasn't crash-rated the car, but the IIHS has:
[http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/vehicle/v/tesla/model-3-4-d...](http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/vehicle/v/tesla/model-3-4-door-
sedan)

~~~
Alex3917
The page you linked to shows that the IIHS _hasn 't_ crash rated the car. The
only thing 'rated' was front crash prevention. None of the six crash tests
they normally do were conducted.

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rlglwx
What everyone is overlooking is that of course the Prius would be a top trade-
in how many have been produced in the last 20 years? It's like saying that the
CAR X is the new Camry, because the number one trade-in is the Camry. The
Camry being the best selling passenger car for the last 25 years...

What's number two on the list? The BMW 3 Series, which is way more in line
with what you'd expect and certainly not a "green car" by any stretch of the
imagination.

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notjustanymike
The last time Forbes was a credible news source was when the Prius was just
coming out.

~~~
TAForObvReasons
it's interesting how a discussion about the SEC possibly investigating Musk
and Tesla over Twitter comments was flagged by HN moderators and this blog
post presenting a rosy view of Tesla showed up in its wake

~~~
DmenshunlAnlsis
As far as I can tell there are just two moderators, and this is a big website.
Is it possible that they’re just focusing on what gets the most flags and not
scouring every post? Maybe the pro-Tesla people flag articles critical of the
brand in a way that gets moderator attention more than everyone else flags a
post like this?

It seems more likely to me than any other explanation.

~~~
TAForObvReasons
So HN already has certain voting ring detectors -- shouldn't the moderators be
able to detect the pro-tesla/pro-musk voting ring?

~~~
DmenshunlAnlsis
I don't know anything about that, but if it’s not coordinated behavior then
why would it run afoul of a detector? Maybe Muskies are just way more easily
angered than everyone else, so their actions coordinate, but they’re doing it
spontaneously?

I could be wrong, I just doubt that this adds up to more than the moderators
being overworked and overwhelmed.

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rocky1138
I'd love to trade in the Prius to get a Tesla but there's no way in hell I'm
doing that when they are so expensive. You can get a used Prius for about
CAD$14,000. Maybe in another 5 or 6 years.

~~~
whataboutism
You can get a pre-owned Model S right now for $43,600

Source: [https://ev-cpo.com/hunter/](https://ev-cpo.com/hunter/)

~~~
mikestew
So only about three times the quoted CAD$14K of a used Prius? What about used
Tesla Model S's, again?

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mmanfrin
Anecdotal, but: my hometown of Orinda is a good bellweather; when the Prius
first came out, the small downtown area felt like 1/3rd of the cars were Prii.
In the past couple years, every time I visit I see many, many Teslas. It's an
affluent but liberal town in the Bay Area, a lot of people who buy in to
green-but-luxury brands.

~~~
rconti
In some ways it's far more impressive that the Prius is as ubiquitous in the
Bay Area as it is. People who would never buy a Corolla flocked to it.

The 3 is also a generic transportation appliance, but it's a much nicer one.

~~~
mmanfrin
Watching traffic in downtown SF is a game of seeing if the total sum of non-
Prius cars outnumber the Priuses or not.

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brightball
Still don't understand why anyone would get either option over a Volt, from a
purely "green" standpoint.

I absolutely get the appeal of Tesla from a quality and technology standpoint
though.

~~~
Jeremy1026
Telsa over Volt is easy for me, no carrying around a gas engine that I don't
need. I actually don't even have a Tesla, but I do drive an all electric. I
didn't want to carry around added weight in an ICE engine and have more room
for batteries.

~~~
brightball
Not sure why. Not having range anxiety is great. I’ve had mine for 2 years and
I’m getting 124mpg over the lifetime.

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smsm42
Tesla 3 costs (at least) twice of the Prius, doesn't it? Are we talking about
multimillionaires with zero sensitivity to price, of is $25K in California now
considered pocket change not worth mentioning? If not, I don't see how that
could be true.

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blacksmith_tb
Hmm, this seems like an apples to oranges comparison. EV customers are not
hybrid customers (even PHEV models like the Prius Prime - full disclosure, I
drive a Prime). It's odd to see Forbes claiming people bought Teslas instead
of Primes - they're not very similar... It would be more relevant to compare
Model 3 sales to the Nissan Leaf[1] and Chevy Bolt[2].

1:
[https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastianblanco/2018/01/09/niss...](https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastianblanco/2018/01/09/nissan-
leaf-300000-sales-global/)

2: [https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gm-sells-more-
than-20000-c...](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gm-sells-more-
than-20000-chevy-bolts-in-2017-2018-01-03)

~~~
stcredzero
_Hmm, this seems like an apples to oranges comparison. EV customers are not
hybrid customers_

Citation? I'm considering both an EV and a hybrid for my next car.

~~~
blacksmith_tb
You are hereby allowed to buy whatever car you'd like to! What that suggests
(and what Forbes doesn't quite seem to be getting at) is that more people are
buying EVs in general - they make a lot of sense for in-town / commuting use.

~~~
outworlder
> they make a lot of sense for in-town / commuting use.

And a lot of sense for a bunch of other things. These are higher end Model
3's, they have a pretty decent range.

~~~
blacksmith_tb
Yes, clearly the Teslas are standout EVs (but at standout prices). The steady
sales of the Leaf and Bolt suggest to me that more people are inclined to
choose them as budget EVs with "good enough" range.

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woodandsteel
What is much more important is the Model 3 replacing pure ICE cars, that is
the real revolution.

~~~
dingaling
That is what hybrids have been doing for 20 years.

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h4b4n3r0
Didn't even read the article: calling BS. Model 3 is easily twice as
expensive. It is a better car by all accounts, but the steep price
differential will make it safe from becoming the "green car of choice".

~~~
cryptozeus
Lol exactly my thought...they are not even in one price range. No one is
thinking of buying prius or tesla

