

Good judgments do not require complex cognition - ahalan
http://mpib5006.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/users/hardingcenter/images/stories/artikel_und_pressemeldungen/cognprocess-good_judgments.pdf

======
disgruntledphd2
This line of research is extremely interesting.

The final author, Gerd Gigerenzer is a legend (in my eyes anyway) for both his
writings on the abuse of statistics, and heuristic decision making. In fact,
in one of his papers, he talks about the use of complex models to predict
customer retention (pareto/negative binomial models) and how these types of
strategies were outperformed by a simple heuristic, the hiatus heuristic which
states that if a customer has purchased in the last X months (the example of 9
was given) they are active, otherwise inactive.

