
How to avoid getting stuck with the middle seat on a Ryanair flight - nathcun
http://www.nathancunn.com/2018-04-20-ryanair-seats/
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Guest9812398
I've taken a number of Ryanair flights this year. Assigning the middle seats
to non-paying passengers backfires sometimes.

I booked tickets with my girlfriend. Almost 50% of the seats were still
available (this was a month before the flight), but all the middle seats were
taken. We wanted to pay for seats beside each other, but that wasn't possible,
because they gave away all the middle seats. When there are three seats on
each side of the aisle, that means no two seats are available beside each
other. So, we didn't pay, we just took the random seats, and then asked people
to switch after we boarded. We probably could have paid for a window and aisle
seat, then asked the middle person to happily switch, but if we're paying for
seats, we shouldn't have to do that.

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dmurray
The article assumes that Ryanair always gives middle seats to the first
passengers who check in and don't pay for middle seats. The eventual
conclusion is that you should check in later to avoid getting the middle seat.
I don't see why the R analysis and pretty visualizations are necessary for
that.

Sadly the article lacks evidence that this is the algorithm Ryanair uses. They
could equally well hold back the middle seats and offer them to the passengers
most likely to pay for an upgrade. In fact, since on a full flight the
hypothesized algorithm (give middle seats to the first passengers to check in)
should not improve Ryanair's outcome over the old algorithm (give middle seats
to the last passengers to check in) I'd guess they are indeed doing something
like that.

~~~
mannykannot
The article specifically says that there is statistical evidence showing that
Ryanair does, in fact, preferentially allocate base-fare paying users to
middle seats. Though the article does not explicitly say that the evidence
supports a particular variant of the algorithm, your particular alternative
does not seem to alter the underlying reasoning here, which is that if you
check in late enough, all the middle seats have been allocated. Once that
happens, you are not going to be allocated a middle seat, regardless of how
the airline allocates the remainder. (This could, however, change your odds of
getting a middle seat earlier in the process, and whether a later check-in
leaves you more prone to being bumped (which I assume Ryanair does unless it
is forbidden by law) is another issue to consider.)

Update: I see that Ryanair does not overbook, which puts some perspective on
the complaints about it - I don't care about meals but I do about the risk of
being bumped.

Update 2: I overlooked one part of the alternative algorithm, but I think that
it actually makes it less likely: if they are holding back middle seats on the
chance of upselling to later arrivals, where are they going to put those
people? It seems that they are likely to end up with a bunch of middle seats
with no chance of upselling even to passengers who would have done so, or
possibly having (even more) disgruntled passengers who paid to choose but got
a middle seat anyway, depending on exactly how this scheme works.

~~~
vertex-four
Interestingly, Ryanair claim that they do not overbook their flights, and
claim to be the only airline in Europe which don't. See section 9 here:
[https://corporate.ryanair.com/about-us/passenger-
charter/](https://corporate.ryanair.com/about-us/passenger-charter/)

~~~
mannykannot
Yes - this seems to support that claim:
[https://conversation.which.co.uk/travel-leisure/flight-
airli...](https://conversation.which.co.uk/travel-leisure/flight-airline-
overbooking-bumped-compensation-benefits-easyjet-virgin/) This also mentions
that EasyJet claims to limit its overbooking to about 1%. You are probably
aware that overbooking has become a problem in the US - I don't know whether
European airlines are allowed to do it to the same extent.

~~~
plantain
The compensation for being bumped is defined in consumer law in the EU, and
it's very punitive - ~300 euros minimum.

~~~
TrickyRick
Yeah, thanks to 261/2004
([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_Compensation_Regulation...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_Compensation_Regulation_261/2004))
airlines generally have incentive to make sure people get to their destination
ASAP. Although it's kind of a prisoner's dilemma at the gate when they ask for
volunteers to take a later flight, if someone agrees to compensation which is
less than the regulated amount the airline will of course take that.

~~~
mannykannot
At least if someone volunteers for less, no-one can claim to have been
unfairly treated. I would argue that this is so even if the volunteer was
unaware that the regulated amount was higher.

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mosselman
Ryanair is a horrible airline. If you add up random costs you are confronted
with during the whole process of flying with them they aren't even that much
cheaper. With which I mean expensive meals/drinks, costs for suitcases, costs
for checking in at the airport when you didn't have access to internet, etc.
Leg space and general facilities are crappy and their handling of cancelled
flights, etc is very poor. Whenever possible I don't fly with them en instead
choose a more 'expensive' option.

~~~
fwdpropaganda
> Ryanair is a horrible airline. If you add up random costs you are confronted
> with during the whole process of flying with them they aren't even that much
> cheaper. Withwhich I mean expensive meals/drinks, costs for suitcases, costs
> for checking in at the airport when you didn't have access to internet, etc.

Complete BS. Cost of expensive meals and cost for suitcases aren't "random
costs". They are entirely predictable and you have to make your decisions
based on that. The people who can't do that end up paying for the ones that
do.

~~~
gberger
I think he means arbitrary and unconventional, not random.

~~~
mseebach
They're not arbitrary, they are well know and well documented, to the point of
being really, really annoying for those of us who knows we don't want them.
They were perhaps a bit unconventional ten years ago, but perfectly middle of
the road today, even for legacy carriers.

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neonhomer
I don't understand the issue with paying to choose your seat on the budget
airlines. My wife and I recently flew Spirit to and Southwest from our
destination in the US. Even after adding bags and seat (we even paid for their
big front seats) it was still cheaper than Southwest.

~~~
dazc
From my experience, people in the UK see the charge for a designated seat as
scam, they don't understand the budget flight business model.

Ryanair (not a UK company btw) have been a pioneer in this area with
aggressive discounting of basic level airfares but with lots of 'upgrade'
options.

~~~
mehrdadn
> they don't understand the budget flight business model.

Does letting you choose your seat increase their costs? If not, then I can see
why people see it as a scam.

~~~
nathcun
they may be offsetting a cost elsewhere by doing this. If they wanted to make
the same money but allow people to choose their seats they could raise ticket
prices for everybody (which wouldn't be fair on those who really don't care
about their seat allocation).

~~~
mehrdadn
Yeah I get what they're doing (and I'm sure other people do too); I'm just
saying I see why people feel it's a rip-off nonetheless.

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leonk
Little trick that I do when travelling as a couple: Get one randomly allocated
seat, and then pay for the other one next to it (or as close by as possible).

~~~
dazc
You can't do that with some airlines though since random seats are allocated
at check-in, not when you book.

It seems like an obvious loophole I would have expected other airlines to have
spotted?

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KozmoNau7
Step 1: Don't fly on Ryanair. Just don't.

~~~
mrarjen
Flights I had on Ryanair are merely 1 or max 2 hours long, (not taking the
driving up and down the runways in account) and for this period of time some
discomfort is perfectly fine.

~~~
rusk
the driving up and down the runways can be a significant factor. Ryanair think
nothing of keeping their passengers on the tarmac for hours on end.

~~~
mugsie
Ryanair actually care a lot about keeping people on the tarmac - it costs them
money. Their financial model only works if the plane is in the air as much as
possible.

~~~
rusk
That is not true, as numerous documented cases will attest.

They get charged for using the gate, once they are on the tarmac "waiting for
a window" they don't suffer additional costs.

It's not that they decide to "park the plane on the tarmac" it's that the
interaction of various airport operational procedures make this the chepest
option in certain scenarios, which is what they'll choose every time.
Passengers bedamned.

In fairness though, I think though they've decided not to pursue this
particular type of "cost saving" more recently.

~~~
icebraining
_once they are on the tarmac "waiting for a window" they don't suffer
additional costs._

Nonsense, the crew has limited flying hours, and sitting there will burn them
up. I can assure you they don't want to have to cancel or delay a flight
because the crew can't fly anymore.

~~~
rusk
Like I say, this is subject to operational restrictions but they'll throw the
customer under the bus if and wherever it suits them.

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Aardwolf
Isn't aisle seat at least as annoying as middle seat? People walking through
the aisle bump into your shoulder all the time, and the stream of people
walking through it almost never stops. It's not like you can use it as leg
space.

Middle is worst of both worlds, except at least you don't get a constant
stream of moving people right next to you

~~~
nathcun
I'd say Window > Aisle > Middle. Middle definitely to be avoided.

~~~
KozmoNau7
People are generally ignorant of seat etiquette. Window seat gets the window,
obviously. Aisle seat gets the better legroom. Middle seat gets _both_ arm
rests.

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xab9
Afaik Wizz does the same randomization logic, it's a new "feature" though :(

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jmkd
You say you fly a lot with Ryanair, be great to add some real data to support
your plausible hypothesis.

~~~
nathcun
I'm not sure when this change came into play but I reckon I've had the middle
seat once, after flying Ryanair on average fortnightly for the last two years.
I don't get boarding passes emailed to me so I don't have access to them any
more, so can't give actual data unfortunately.

