
Why the 3D printing revolution won’t happen in your garage - evo_9
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/134833-why-the-3d-printing-revolution-wont-happen-in-your-garage
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OscarPOSEFY
I respectfully disagree with Ryan Whitwam's arguments and conclusions.

Personally, I do believe that the 3D printing revolution will happen at home.
The Internet has "democratized" the production of digital content at home
(photography, blogs, self-published ebooks, music, videos, podcasts...) and 3D
printing will similarly "democratize" the production of physical goods. If
people with creativity and the right tools have produced AMAZING digital
goods, given the appropriate framework they will produce AMAZING physical
goods.

The author's argument revolves around 2 key premises, both of which I disagree
with:

1) "The overwhelming majority of homes don’t need a 3D printer, and that’s not
really going to change."

The beauty of technology is that it is impossible ascertain in advance what
people do and do not need. The real beauty of innovation lies in providing
solutions to problemes that people don't even know they have, or create
products that they didn't believe they needed and now cannot live without
(Ford motor cars versus faster horses is the obvious example, but there are
many others). Anyone who knows even a little bit of technology should not say
things like "that's not really going to change" or "everything that could have
been invented has already been invented" (Charles Duell, commissioner of the
United States Patent and Trademark Office in 1899) because history has shown
us time and time again that humman innovation always surprises us. Beyond our
wildest dreams. Perhaps the overwhelming majority of homes don't KNOW what
they can do with a 3D printer TODAY, the same as they had no idea what they
could do with a "blog" 20 years ago.

2) "There’s always the hope that 3D printing will provide a way to fabricate
replacement parts when something breaks or wears out".

Why? This is a pretty leading statement, and there are definitely many other
applications for this 3D printing technology. Some people might go there
(domestic printing of replacement parts) but others will focus on creating
their own product lines such as <http://www.brickarms.com> or
<http://www.brickforge.com>. Flickr, YouTube, Blogger, WordPress and other
amazing companies have been successful because they have provided the means to
do something and then people's creativity took over and did the rest.

Sorry for the rant, but I'm quite passionate in this issue and I believe that
in a decade or two everyone will have a 3D printer at home.

------
forgingahead
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson,
chairman of IBM, 1943.

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stephengillie
The funny thing about new technologies is how people find new uses for them
once they own them. Microwaves come to mind as an incredibly popular limited-
scope device (all it does is reheat food) whose function just duplicates a
more common kitchen appliance (oven/stove/range).

The big thing with 3d printing will be the little things: cups, forks, plates,
bowls, battery covers, buttons, dice, car interior parts (dashboard panels,
clips, knobs, dials, etc). Maybe it's not interesting if everything you own is
new & you don't have kids, but these will come in very handy replacing lost
and hard-to-find parts for fixing up old things.

~~~
vannevar
But those 'little things' are precisely the things that are generally cheap
and easy to replace with the real thing, rather than some approximation made
of resin. Sure there are old parts that are hard to find, but that alone
probably won't justify everyone having the capacity to make their own. Jigsaws
have been around forever, but not everyone has a one, and they can make a lot
of things with more versatility in materials than a Makerbot.

I would agree that if there is a killer use for a Makerbot, it's probably
something the device was never intended for.

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tocomment
This is kind of sad. I'd love to hear a counter argument. Can anyone provide
one? I can't think of any faults with his argument.

~~~
OscarPOSEFY
I tried to provide a counter argument, and there are a couple of faults with
his original argument. Thanks!

