
40 percent of college students say their next computer purchase will be a Mac - pg
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/08/03/26/morgan_stanley_40_of_college_students_plan_to_buy_macs.html
======
dusklight
I'm not sure this is a good thing.

As far as I can see, Apple is if anything even more tyrannical and
monopolistic than Microsoft, the main difference being that Apple is sexier.
Apple wants the computer to become like a household appliance, closed to
outside modification.

Looking at how they've run iTunes, the restrictive iPhone SDK, etc ... M$
wanted to control all your software but they at least gave you some choice on
hardware. If Apple becomes the new monopoly we won't even have any say on
that.

~~~
pg
That is a bit worrying, but at least it will be a monopoly they've earned one
user at a time, like Google, rather than an existing monopoly they took over
from the previous owner, like Microsoft.

That will tend to limit their misdeeds, because to do that a company has to
have a different type of employee. If Google wanted to start being evil,
they'd face an internal revolt. And Apple too, to some extent.

~~~
davidw
OS's have some network externalities, so "one user at a time" isn't entirely
accurate. There's a tipping point in there some where.

Have you read "In Search of Stupidity: Over 20 years of High Tech Marketing
Disasters" ? He makes a convincing case that a lot of the MS monopoly comes
not from brilliant products or evil genius, but by hitching a ride on a more
open platform, and having had less disasters than the competition.

I'm not sure I agree with him 100%, because once they got that toehold, they
sure exploited it to crush everyone else. I don't have many doubts that Jobs
has some crushing tendencies himself - exhibit #1 is the look and feel
lawsuit.

~~~
hollerith
Oops: I downmodded you by mistake when I meant to downmod the lame South Park
metaphor. Sorry!

------
henning
I think it will be interesting to see how many of them are willing to put
their money where their mouth is and plunk down $1000-2000 for an
email/Internet research/word processing machine.

Are we in fact entering circumstances where it's believed you need a Core 2
Duo machine with 1-2 GB RAM to run Word, Excel, and a web browser? (I'm
assuming most students aren't running or writing finite element codes,
simulations, and other computationally intensive programs where more cores and
more clock speed gives you huge gains.)

~~~
jgrahamc
I think jwz's "How will this software get me laid?" question applies (albeit
to hardware): <http://www.jwz.org/doc/groupware.html>

So, for $1,000 to $2,000 I get a really cool computer and an increased chance
of getting laid. I'd like to see Dell fight that value proposition.

~~~
hollerith
The argument that buying Mac will help you get laid is flimsy. It is not based
on anything worthy of the name "data".

The average college student is better off spending $150 for an old PC, putting
Linux on it, and spending the other $850 to $1,850 on hookers if he is
unsatisfied with his sex life.

This seems pretty obvious to me, and I would think would be obvious to anyone
else who stopped watching TV (and hence TV commercials) and listening to the
radio (and hence radio commercials) as long ago as I did (about 16 years ago).

------
martythemaniak
I kinda get why people would like mac notebooks, they seem to be pretty nice,
but I just can't get why techies/geeks/hackers like the iPhone. Yes the
hardware is pretty, but due to Apple's political decisions, it is one of the
most closed systems out there - restrictive API, restrictive distribution,
remote bricking, no unlocking. Hackers buying iPhones seems a bit like
Greenpeace donating money for Japanese whale "research" to me.

~~~
attack
But unlocking is easy if you're a hacker. It's the non-hackers that apple is
screwing the most.

The point of knowing how to hack stuff in this way is to get the most out of
your soft/hardware, not to support the most hacker-friendly company with your
completely insignificant amount of funds.

~~~
martythemaniak
I know you can jailbreak it, but you can ultimately hack anything to do
anything (ie, people putting linux on every damn piece of electronics out
there).

And yes, it matters a lot which company you support, since not only do a
significant number of insignificant funds add up, but you're giving them
mindshare and encouraging others to follow (which is kinda the point of pg's
mac essay).

Just to give you an idea of why I'm so mad at Apple, the project that I'm
working on right now needs a very good mobile component. Android is completely
open and lets you do everything you need, so the first version is based on
that. However, there can't be an iPhone app because Jobs is a control freak,
he has decreed that I should not have the ability to write what I want to
write.

So no, I just don't understand why people that supposedly value openness have
such adulation for one of the most restrictive platforms out there. The eye-
candy isn't worth it.

~~~
attack
No significant percentage of people actually value this form of openness.

~~~
martythemaniak
Really? Perhaps Apple should try selling their laptops with the same
restrictions then?

People may not use the same specific terms, but whether it's computing or
politics or anything else, they don't like to be arbitrarily told they can't
do what they want to do.

------
moog
This figure doesn't surprise me. Every day I see signs to suggest Apple will
soon be leaving Microsoft in the dust. Yesterday, a professional acquaintance
suddenly announced he was buying an iMac. If you knew this guy, who has
praised PCs and MS for _years_ , you would know how big a deal this is. I was
almost speechless. Time to go long on Apple, Inc.

------
mrtron
I should be personally getting paid by apple, or buy some stock.

3 of my friends have made the jump after playing with my Macbook.

It is taking a lot of willpower to not get an Air or MBP.

~~~
jgrahamc
The solution to your will power problem is that Apple should start just
selling subscriptions. You sign up for an iBuy subscription and send in $300 a
month. Apple randomly sends you cool stuff.

~~~
mrtron
I would be willing to pay 10x as much for such a service! :P

The problem with that service is I am far too cheap and picky to subscribe.

They need to stop releasing such great new products. You can't go play with a
Macbook Air and not consider purchasing it.

------
handelaar
Surveys where people say what they will do in the future, and an empty sack,
are worth about the same as a sack.

Come on, you measure what people do, not what they claim they'll do. And if
somebody came to YC with a piece like this in her quiver, you'd probably be
the first one to grill them about it...

------
antirez
So we are in trouble... I like a lot Macs, and it is what I suggest to
computer agnostic guys, but unless you plan to install a unix-like operating
system there it is very hard to think that an hacker can use this kind if user
interface.

Hackers are much smarter than the people apple have in mind when designing the
user interface, so the mac user interface is an obstacle between the computer
and the hacker.

------
eru
89 percent of college students say their next paper will be finished on time.
;)

------
randomhack
Mostly in the US. I dont see any evidence of Macs becoming more popular in
India for example. Any observations from Europe?

~~~
gumbah
Over here in Holland, Macs are definitely becoming more and more popular. Not
sure about the rest of europe though, but my guess is that it's the same all
over europe...

------
Spyckie
Just wondering - is anyone else seeing this as an entrepreneur opportunity?

This seems to me to be more of a sense of dissatisfaction with the current
(aesthetic, quality, speed, you-name-it) of the PC/laptop. The current mindset
of the Windows laptop industry (cutting quality of parts and shoving tons of
unneeded software on you to cut costs and improve short term sales) is killing
the industry from the inside out, and Macs, although much more costly than an
average PC laptop, values the satisfaction of the customer more than the price
point.

~~~
tokipin
in my case i just don't like vista. its DRM crap, plus the interface that
looks like it was designed by a committee of people checking things off a list
rather than a single artist who actually knows how it must be done

it's not enough for me to get a mac though. i'll stick with my XP Media Center
edition for the time being

------
cadalac
As a college student I estimate that 3 of 10 students use Macs. When I walk
through the cafeteria I like to see how many Macbooks there are, to see if PGs
10 year prediction will come true.

~~~
mixmax
For those of us that haven't heard, what's the prediction?

~~~
jgrahamc
<http://www.paulgraham.com/mac.html>

------
introitus
I grab a cup of coffee every morning from a local indy coffee shop who offers
free Wifi, and, over the past two years I have certainly noticed there are
more and more little glowing apple icons to go along with all the white ear-
bud cords.

I wish I could find the source where I read a comment about the ergonomics of
apple products. It was something along the line of a cross between a kitchen
appliance and a dildo. I still smile when I think of that.

------
gregwebs
I am probably going to get an Apple in a few days. I absolutely abhor windows
and am comfortable in Linux. Any advice? Is the pro worth it/necessary for
developing web apps? (I am comfortable using a smaller size laptop)

~~~
falsestprophet
I got a macbook last year. The massive student discount contributed most to my
decision. But, it does look really cool in my hemp messenger bag.

Running Ubuntu on it is a nightmare, so I am beginning to regret my decision.
Now, I just do all of my work over ssh on my server or my labs' boxes.

And a pro definitely is not nearly worth it (and doesn't look nearly as cool).

~~~
gregwebs
how are you trying to run Ubuntu? Parallels, boot camp, VMware? I was hoping
to be able to run Linux at least as running it through VMware on Windows.

~~~
hollywoodcole
Yes you can run Linux and Windows under OSX via VMware Fusion. I have a
Macbook Pro 2.4Ghz with 2gb Ram and its great for all my needs.

------
crisachow14
Macs are known as gorgeous pieces of hardware and that seems to be their main
functionality. As Neal Stephenson stated, they are polished and nice to look
at, hence why the prices are jacked up but that is all that they have going
for them. Nowadays, most things that are exuberantly expensive must be worth
something and are therefore sought out and it becomes a trend.

If your best friend has a $3000 Mac monitor, why shouldn't you have one?

In my opinion, Dells are pretty sturdy machines though a bit hefty. I would
like to get my hands on an HP computer though. That is a beaut.

------
c1sc0
Run Linux, OSX & XP on a single machine, without rebooting. That's bliss for
web dev like me. Sure, those college students may be lured by the 'ooo, shiny
...' factor but they stay for the power & ease of use.

One of the keys to Apple's success is the marriage of open and closed systems:
*NIX at the bottom with a well thought-out and (closed) UI on top. Good design
(& designers) tend to be dictatorial because difficult decisions need to be
made (which features to leave out). Hence the closed GUI system.

------
hassy
I know 5 students who bought new laptops in the last 2 years, 3 of them chose
a Mac. Also, most laptops at a local Starbucks popular with students are Macs.
PG was right.

------
wumi
why is everyone so smitten with Macs? the average college student does not
need one and would be better served by buying an iPhone and a $400 dell

------
Maven911
In some of my arts classes, if you sit in the back, all you see is a sea of
white Macs.

------
hello_moto
Superiority and ease of use aside.

People's taste always change once in a while. We've been living in the world
of Windows for 10-15 years. People got bored with Windows and Dell.

Mac gives them a new "toy" (not literally, but gadget wise).

------
run4yourlives
I'd venture a guess that 15-20% of the entire population's next computer will
be a mac. I know I'm making the switch.

------
nazgulnarsil
if you aren't going to be running osx what is the point of buying a mac?
especially now that they run on intel cores?

------
anupamkapoor
apple is the new (or soon to be) windows. the king is dead. long live the
king.

------
LPTS
This is great news. It's great to see people waking up. I've personally
converted 7 people to Apple. I hate using a windows pc anymore. I switched to
compose music. It's a huge difference. This bodes well for the taste of the
upcoming generation.

The only time I have missed my PC was when I wanted to delete forward from the
cursor. Then I learned that fn + del deletes forward and I have been a
faithful convert ever since.

------
weegee
The concept of simplicity is the foundation of Mac's and Apple products and is
why they are gaining ground. _nix is for is for "Geeks" (Yes, I'm a Geek). It
has always been about Geeks, it will always be about geeks. The additional
benefit of OS X is that it still has the underlying Geekland that the_ nix
crowd loves. For those that aren't at the Geek level of TechKnowledgy
(Copyright 200-now), Macs will keep on purring with minimal fuss.

------
kingkongrevenge
AAPL is probably a great stock to short now. Expensive discretionary consumer
fluff. It'll tank in the year ahead.

------
weegee
our next computer will be a Mac as well, when our old Dell desktop finally
dies. When you can run OSX and Windows on one machine, why ever buy a PC again
unless you're a hard-core gamer?

~~~
davidw
To run Linux, of course!

~~~
weegee
I know you're probably joking, but in the limited experience I've had with
Linux, I've never had a more negative experience with an operating system than
I did with Linux. I'd run Windows XP way before I'd consider running Linux. At
least XP works. OSX has tons of advantages over Linux, including a window
interface that runs smoothly, OSX has way more software available and there is
no discussion whatsoever to be had in this area, and OSX has a lot better tech
support available to users. I could go on and on. Linux is a hobby OS at best.

~~~
davidw
"Hobby OS"? Is this some sort of April fool's troll?

~~~
weegee
No, there are actually people who think Linux sucks when compared to OSX.

~~~
davidw
Yes, but on a site labeled "hacker news", you'd hope to find people at least
willing to consider that different OS's have different advantages, and that
for hackers, Linux has a lot of them. Being able to hack the kernel is handy
(yes, I have). Being able to debug pretty much any aspect of the system is
handy. Not being in any way a second class citizen on your own computer is
great. The freedom to take the whole thing and repurpose it if needs be, to
create all kinds of interesting special purpose systems, from servers to
Android type embedded devices is a huge business advantage.

But, being an observant guy, it's easy to see that Mac OS has its own
strengths as well. My parents run it, for instance, and I'm sure it's better
for them.

Comments like "hobby OS" and "linux sucks", though, are not indicative of
serious thinking on the matter.

~~~
weegee
of course you are correct. I've been a Mac user since 1984 so I am horribly
biased :-) In my three attempts to get Linux to run on a PC, I had three
tremendous failures so I've given up. I can run most popular free apps like
OpenOffice on OSX anyway (and I do) so I don't have a need for Linux. But for
cheap hardware and the ultimate ability to tinker without big brother looking
over your shoulder, Linux is fantastic.

------
michjeanty
Mac rock, I still don't own one, but I use them all the till. They super cool.

