

Entrepreneurs Don't Have an Optimism Bias - smit
http://blogs.hbr.org/2014/02/entrepreneurs-dont-have-an-optimism-bias-you-have-a-pessimism-bias/

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codex
The high failure rates of startups suggest otherwise.

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cookingrobot
Not so. The payoff of a successful startup is so high that it's often a good
bet even with a high chance of failure.

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codex
Expected value only enters the picture if you can play many, many times. It's
more realistic to look at the median outcome, yet every entrepreneur is
transfixed by the big exits. If that's not optimism I don't know what is.

