

Facts everyone should know about oil exploration - bumbledraven
http://www.quora.com/Oil-Exploration/What-are-the-top-five-facts-everyone-should-know-about-oil-exploration

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dredmorbius
This is a great piece for putting the energy problem into stark perspective. I
do quibble with a few of the arguments and some numbers.

Of the numbers presented by Ms. Carlyle, the one that's probably most arguable
is the growth rate of solar. Installed capacity (that's a measure of peak
output, not actual power production, more later) is doubling about every 3
years, not the 10 she suggests.

Solar energy _capacity_ (power output, in GW) translates to _energy output_
(GWh) based on capacity factor
(<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor>). This varies by type of solar
(it's higher for concentrated solar power, CSP, lower for photovoltaics, PV),
and siting. A low range of 13% for PV in Massachusets, a high of 75% for CSP
in Spain. Let's call it 15% on average (conservative but realistic).

Global solar capacity was around 69 GWm in 2012. Let's call that 7 GW after
capacity factor. Oil produces roughly 500x more power at present, or 9
doubling periods. If solar output doubles every 3 years, we might be able to
match existing oil capacity within 27 years.

That's not great, but it's within reason, and may be soon enough.

There are other tools in the toolbox: nuclear, particularly in the form of
thorium or TerraPower reactors. Wind. Perhaps even large-scale geothermal
development (Iceland, Kenya, Japan, New Zealand, Italy, Indonesia, the
Philippines, and US all have significant developments in the 500 - 3000 MW
range). Anathema though it might be to the wilderness crowd, the Yellowstone
caldera represents an immense potentially for development, and unlike many
other geothermal opportunities, is within transmission range of significant
population and industrial centers.

The other problem with oil, of course, is that nagging little climate problem.
Yonatan Zunger posted a charmingly bleak piece on that here:
[https://plus.google.com/103389452828130864950/posts/SgzQU5DM...](https://plus.google.com/103389452828130864950/posts/SgzQU5DM3LQ)

