
Scottish independence referendum poll tracker - Sami_Lehtinen
http://www.bbc.com/news/events/scotland-decides/poll-tracker
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michel-slm
Kudos to the BBC and the UK as a whole, there are not many countries in which
the state broadcasting unit seems to be covering a move to secede with
reasonable impartiality.

cf. the shock to the Indonesian political elite when East Timor voted
overwhelmingly to secede - there is a downside to a press that is too docile

~~~
klmr
The BBC is technically independent [1], not a “state broadcast” – that’s the
whole point of being funded via TV license [2]. … Of course, in reality people
accuse the BBC of all kinds of biases, amongst them being pro-government (I
find myself in that camp, but there are few hard numbers [3]). It’s also been
accused of bias by both sides of the referendum debate [4].

[1]:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC#Governance_and_Corporate_St...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC#Governance_and_Corporate_Structure)
[2]:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_licence#History](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_licence#History)
[3]: [http://www.newstatesman.com/broadcast/2013/08/hard-
evidence-...](http://www.newstatesman.com/broadcast/2013/08/hard-evidence-how-
biased-bbc) [4]:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_BBC#Scottish_i...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_BBC#Scottish_independence_referendum)

~~~
atmosx
BBC is (always were) pro government. That said, IMHO is the state-of-art TV
broadcast network.

~~~
asuffield
"Pro government" is maybe a little strong. The BBC is funded by the government
under an "arms length" arrangement with license fees; it is (understandably)
nervous about doing anything that annoys the government enough to make it
reconsider this status.

That doesn't mean that the BBC actively endorses the government of the time,
but rather that it tends to prefer not to rock the boat too hard. It's never
been - and never will be - a hotbed of edgy, controversial content. You could
describe its objective as "quality content that isn't going to be hated by too
many people".

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gabemart
Odds at online bookmakers and betting exchanges still rate a "No" vote as
around twice a likely as a "Yes" vote.

[http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-
politics/scottis...](http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-
politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome)

~~~
jebus989
As well they should. This one poll gives the appearance of a trend towards Yes
and a dramatic close finish, but Yes have always been behind by a fairly
consistent margin [0]. Just so happens the odd poll (~2/50 now) finds a Yes
majority by crook or by hook (e.g. SNP commission a poll) and it makes a nice
news piece. I did a quick analysis of that polling data should anyone be
interested [1].

[0] [http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence-
referendu...](http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence-referendum)

[1] [http://blm.io/blog/scottish-independence-
polls/](http://blm.io/blog/scottish-independence-polls/)

~~~
klmr
Phenomenal work, well done. I was slightly disappointed that the (beautiful)
blog post was not authored in R Markdown. ;-)

One comment, your analysis only takes into account data up to July of this
year. It is entirely plausible that the recent debates could have affected the
polls dramatically (there’s precedence for this, prime example being the
Kennedy–Nixon debate), something that the BBC data is consistent with.

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blueskin_
It's worth noting that YouGov polls have been the most cited, especially
recently, while there has been a coordinated effort by the pro-independence
campaign to start registering their people on there in bulk to inflate their
numbers in the polls (YouGov allows anyone to register to participate).

~~~
allegory
YouGov allows everyone to register but selects panels based on approximate
population distribution rather than surveying everyone.

Disclaimer: used to work in that sector.

~~~
michaelt
Assuming support for Scottish independence is randomly distributed among the
Scottish population, what criteria would you use to select a representative
panel?

~~~
allegory
I'm not sure what they would use myself but based on the prequel questions
they ask people plus some heuristics they can determine roughly were you sit
within the populous on a number of aspects between age, class, income,
location and political inclination etc.

If a poll is biased towards political inclination they can exclude that from
the selection criteria to avoid result bias.

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crapshoot101
Would be shocked if this actually happens. Most Scottish business will move
down south (they've said as much loudly), they will not be able to use the
pound, and because of the EU's "any member can veto policy", I think EU
membership will be harder, not easier for Scotland to get - Spain, for one
(with Catalonia or the Basque region), is not going to want this precedent
set.

Still, will be interesting to watch. Money is still on "No", but stranger
things have happened.

~~~
arethuza
I think it's perhaps more accurate to say that business leaders in Scotland
are split just the same way that the rest of the population is:

[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-
business-2896...](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-
business-28960729)

[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28944255](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28944255)

Also worth noting that the SNP wants to _lower_ corporation tax rates to
attract large companies here.

~~~
Alphasite_
The UK already has very low corporate taxes, so Putting it even lower could be
interesting.

~~~
justincormack
Ireland already has lower taxes than the UK, it would probably have a similar
effect, although the EU is quite keen to get rid of the ways to evade even the
low official rates in Ireland.

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zoner
As a foreigner, living in Scotland the whole debate seems left wing-ish to me.
SNP shows they are nationalistic, but wants to be an independent republic, not
having the Queen (or restore their own historical realm).

There are also a lot of very good things I see, but there's no sign of the
same nationalistic spirit as I can see in Poland, Croatia or Hungary.

Beautiful landscape anyway, they could be rich and smart when independent. In
fact, after Russia, Scotland will be the most manliest country in the world
with more culture and gentleman than Russia :)

I will be also very sad an other Kingdom will be smaller in case they became
independent.

Despite I have the right to vote, I can't say aye or naw yet, but silently
observing the thing to learn from it. Hope Transylmania one day will have the
same opportunity.

~~~
frozenport
Pretty sure the Isle-of-Man is the manliest country.

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atmosx
That's probably the most interesting thing that will happen in 2014,
especially if Scotland votes 'YES' (which I believe will do, I don't trust
pools anyway).

Generally speaking, after 2008 and the policies the EU choose to endorse,
Europe is heading towards right-wing, nationalistic governments, who speak
against a unified EU. That's because where the EU was seen as a _good thing_
before, it was used by liberals to kill effectively every social protection
Europe had to offer[1]. That doesn't apply to Scotland as much as other
countries, but I believe it does affect the vote indirectly.

[1] From Spain to Turkey, every country that had to do a non-popular, usually
anti-social reform, used Brussels as the main reason.

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tchai_
The fact is that no non-Scottish UK citizen really gives a toss. It's Scotland
vs Westminster and the rest of the UK couldn't give a fuck what they do.

~~~
vixin
Not true. They will once they understand the significance of the Westminster
parliament losing 52 Scottish Labour MPs which would leave the rest of the UK
with a strong Tory majority.

If the vote is YES the Prime Minister in office when independence takes effect
(most likely to be Labour) would certainly have to resign.

~~~
vidarh
As far as I understand, there's only been a couple of elections where losing
the Labour majority in Scotland would have made a difference for Labour.

It's true that a Labour government would likely have a far smaller majority
without the Scottish MPs, but when Labour has won, it has usually been with
far greater majorities than that.

~~~
blueskin_
It would have in the most recent general election, while the general consensus
is that hung parliaments[1] are only going to become more common if not the
norm in future.

[1]That is, no clear majority, requiring a coalition government

