

Technological Progress Happens via Simulated Annealing - blackswan
http://blog.figuringshitout.com/technological-progress-happens-via-simulated-annealing/

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Groxx
I think this misses a key phase in technological progress which _doesn't_
match simulated annealing:

Once you get to that final minimum, where you can only iterate to improve,
people see it as the every-day, and start latching onto a new round of fluid
creation (and there's the fight-The-Man attitude, too).

I'll call the growth-after-optimum a "flowering" period, where things shoot
off in all directions. Frequently, they're based on that optimum, but not
always (seeds spread).

(and how exactly is the Windows / Command key a major innovation? there have
been function keys longer than there have been computer keyboards)

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DavidSJ
I'm surprised to see no mention of the iPhone and iPad as departures from the
Alto UI paradigms.

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hga
Read the second comment, which is by the author; it ends with " _This post is
laying the foundation for what is to become my argument for why the iPad could
be the largest mistake that Apple ever made._ "

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DavidSJ
Whatever the argument, it will need to somehow apply only to the iPad, and not
the iPhone.

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Herring
It's sort of a tautology. If innovation happens in a mature section, it
creates something different so it's happening in a different field. If no
innovation happens, well then it's still the same field. Next year he could be
talking about the rapid rate of innovation in dumbed-down tablets.

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mixmax
I can't find the source right now, but I remember reading a paper where it was
assessed that a new technology needs to be roughly twice as good as what it's
replacing if it is to be successful due to the inertia the post describes.

The post also makes you realise that marketing and evangelizing is a very
important aspect of doing a startup, especially if your product is
groundbreaking and threatening to the status qou.

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shalmanese
The first comment in the post references that paper:
[http://blog.figuringshitout.com/technological-progress-
happe...](http://blog.figuringshitout.com/technological-progress-happens-via-
simulated-annealing/#comment-34329589)

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chancho
Except for progress in metallurgy and materials science. That's real
annealing.

