
Tesla announces 90 sec battery swap - sbashyal
https://twitter.com/TeslaMotors/status/347925866061385728
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brownbat
I've seesawed on this over the last few years.

I. The Good

I was originally* a big fan, faster than gas stations, but still compatible
with at home "pumping" for city driving. It's basically a propane refill
model, shops could buy back your old battery while they sold you a new one, so
eventually you're really just paying for the energy at basically no wait.

II. The Bad

I grew more pessimistic as I started shopping for aftermarket cell phone
batteries, noticing that:

a) Batteries degrade over time (in terms of capacity or depth of discharge)

b) Batteries are expensive, especially car batteries (though this should
improve over time)

c) It's impossible to really know the exact capacity of a battery without a
power cycle or two

Would you be willing to swap phone batteries with a stranger? What if the
battery cost $4000? Who eats the cost of lemon batteries on the market? Does a
sort of Gresham's Law kick in where suddenly everyone's dumping a lemon in
every transaction?

Buying gas involves some trust, trust that they're not loading it up with
crud, that it really has the energy capacity it says it does, that it's not
30% ethanol instead of 0, 10, 15. But I believe, based on the factors above,
the trust relationship with a battery refill is a little more intense.

III. The Beautiful?

That said, now I'm of course swinging optimistic again. Car and Driver taught
us that Tesla's diagnostic tools are awesome. Serial individual batteries, let
the owner see its entire history, hidden lemon problem basically solved. Maybe
build some "insurance" into battery costs, guarantee certain lifespan, smoothe
out the cost of duds.

Musk can dodge some of the authentication problems by just keeping a tight
grip on the infrastructure and the technology, but for this to really take
off, Musk will want to allow competition, standardize battery swapping tech,
encourage mom and pop "battery stations" to quickly build out the
infrastructure in all the small towns he doesn't know are on the map. Not sure
if that's in his personality though...

* Originally = Few years back I sat on a few panels for energy and transportation, wrote some white papers, nothing big.

EDIT: formatting, headings

~~~
chad_oliver
I wouldn't be suprised if Tesla has added (or will add) a small monitoring
chip to the battery pack, which would track statistics on battery quality and
usage. That would make it very easy and quick to determine the relative value
of each battery.

~~~
bbq
I wonder if the economics will allow for an hacked battery market. Perhaps
organized crime goes around with batteries lying about their age to make some
$$$.

~~~
bradleyland
That would require a secondary market for the batteries. Tesla could fight
this by building the battery swap in to the cost of ownership, just like they
do with the free supercharger stations. In this scenario, the demand for
second-hand Tesla batteries would be very soft, so it wouldn't be worth the
criminal effort.

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adamtulinius
Interesting. Not long ago Better Place (at least in Denmark) went bankrupt,
and now the Renault Fluence-owners are having problems due to all chargers
(even home-installed onces) are/were connected to Better Place, and isn't
providing any electricity right now. There's also the entire problem with the
car-owners only renting the battery..

Anyways, Tesla were smart; they made a product people desired before building
expensive battery-swap infrastructure. In Denmark, only about 200-250 cars
that could use the battery-swap facilities were sold, so no wonder the company
went bankrupt.

~~~
gcb0
That may work for model s market... But even they came up with model cheap,
this will be all kinds of nightmare from smart ppl "returning" all sorts of
junk batteries.

~~~
kalleboo
If all batteries are built and sold by Tesla, it would be easy to put battery
health monitoring in there to test them before swapping them out. The cars are
already all online and pinging home their battery level (see the stories about
Tesla contacting owners who left their car in a garage and their battery is
about to be irrecoverably discharged)

~~~
gcb0
(cheap) nature will find a way

:)

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pixie_
All a gas station needs to do is hold enough batteries to match the rate of
customer arrival over the time it takes to recharge a battery, plus a safety
factor of X. Stations can add more batteries to their pool over time as more
people start driving electric vehicles. And instead of daily fuel tankers,
occasionally a truck comes to the station with replacement batteries for those
detected to be worn out. It could be a really great system if Tesla makes it
easy to setup and handles most of the work automatically delivering new
batteries when demand increases, and replacing worn out ones.

Someone should do the math of how many 'equivelent fill ups' it takes to pay
for a battery, and then subtract that from the total amount of fill ups
possible before wearing out and electricity cost. I have a feeling this could
be a very profitable investment.

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austenallred
I'm calling it a long, long way in advance, but Tesla has won. Game, set, and
match - in 50 years we will all be driving electric cars.

With the battery swap Tesla has finally alleviated the "cross-country road
trip" problem in a way that superchargers really couldn't. Now when you are
comparing car vs. car you have no reason to turn your nose up at electric. And
with Tesla making the best cars ever in the luxury sedan price range, they
will likely do the same as they scale and create an economy car. The cost of
batteries and production will continue to drop until the only real choice
you're making is Tesla vs. Chevrolet. And Tesla makes better cars.

If I weren't a broke startup founder I would pour in all my money to Tesla
stock.

~~~
coolsunglasses
>Tesla has finally alleviated the "cross-country road trip" problem in a way
that superchargers really couldn't.

As someone who's taken a one-way cross-country trip before (NYC->SF), no, no
they haven't. The system only works if it's round trip.

Gas powered vehicles continue to be more practical unless you are firmly
confined to a 100 mile radius in your vehicular needs and can afford to
supplement your electric with an extra vehicle (the case for all Tesla owners
so far) and/or alternate modes of transport.

~~~
theguycalledtom
"Gas" powered cars are terrible. They choke up the roads with smog, they
require way too much maintenance and they can't be fuelled with solar, wind or
nuclear or other sustainable fuel sources.

> The system only works if it's round trip

Why?

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prawn
Similar to swap-n-go for BBQ gas bottles. You might've bought the original
tank, but after the first swap, it goes into the pool for refill and supply to
others.

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huhtenberg
I _bet_ that today's announcement is Tesla's first step towards full-blown
"battery as a service" offering. You will own the car, but not the battery.
Instead, you will lease it from Tesla with an option to swap it at will and as
frequently as you'd like. For example, on any charging station, in less than 2
minutes.

That'd be very Musk-like thing to do.

~~~
rurounijones
I don't really understand all this talk about "Your" battery, "My" battery
etc. since it doesn't seem to be the sane way to do things.

Sell me the car without battery, make me sign up for a battery service at $X
per month which guarantees access to batteries at the swap-stations (The first
'swap' being done when I get the car) and done.

Let me treat batteries like I treat AWS servers, totally replaceable cattle.
No ownership issues, no "swap YOUR good battery for a dud one" issues.

~~~
jhuckestein
The "Your" battery talk happens because Tesla charges extra for cars with
larger batteries. I agree, though, that this will likely not be the case one
or two generations down the line.

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mtgx
A camera recording of how it works:

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VH4JloWFEI&feature=youtu.be](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VH4JloWFEI&feature=youtu.be)

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jcdavis
I'm still confused on the details of this. Surely you'll be required to come
back on the way back and swap back into your original battery? (for warranty
reasons). Seems like a complex & expensive logistical nightmare (vs the
simplicity of superchargers)

~~~
eisen
Maybe I'm crazy but if it is a physical battery swap then this brings memories
of history class. Horses were swapped along the silk road to extend distance
in shorter range of time. Same goes for horses as do batteries I guess. They
get the job well on more available energy but take for ever to regain to keep
going. 2c of thought

~~~
sliverstorm
I really doubt horses were fungible. I don't know the actual details, but I
would expect when you swapped horses, you got off a company horse and got on
another company horse.

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iamshs
Wow. This is incredible. Nicely designed, electric power vehicles. Incredible.
Finally, after around 130 years of IC engine, we are onto the next step. And
this step is such a simple method to refuel. Better than spending 30 mins
recharging from ground up.

Why are we going towards electric vehicles? To reduce dependency upon
conventional fuels. From where will electricity come? Nuclear Energy.

Can long term derivative benefits and harm be predicted? Spent nuclear fuel
storage and getting rare earth minerals seem to be only obvious ones to me.

~~~
mikevm
>Why are we going towards electric vehicles? To reduce dependency upon
conventional fuels. From where will electricity come? Nuclear Energy.

Yeah, I don't really get the fuss about electric vehicles. They might move us
away from oil, but we mainly use fossil fuels to generate electricity... so
this is merely an indirection.

~~~
theguycalledtom
Is this a serious thought out comment or a joke?

Even coal powered electric plants are far more efficient than an ICE. So they
are a cheaper source of fuel for the consumer and are putting out less C02.
They are also far away from populated cities so the pollution isn't choking up
the air in the city.

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TannerLD
"Return the pack on your journey back or keep it & we'll bill you the
difference."

Are there different battery types/options available that cost different
prices?

~~~
sbashyal
Yes, there are a few batteries types with different capacities that give
various range to the car. So it sounds like the ones who bought a lower-
capacity battery can extend their range by swapping their battery while
traveling.

~~~
schiffern
There are actually only two batteries – 85 kWh and 60 kWh. The 40 kWh was
discontinued.

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danboarder
I wonder if they have licensed technology from Better Place, which has been
doing battery-swap electric car fill-up stations for several years now (see
[http://www.betterplace.com/](http://www.betterplace.com/) ).

~~~
schiffern
They went bankrupt. Also this:
[https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/347005150860283905](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/347005150860283905)

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sbashyal
This sounds like the future of automobile - why do we still need to step out
of our cars to refuel?

~~~
dave5104
You don't in New Jersey and Oregon. Gas attendants do that for you.

~~~
sbashyal
That's even more backwards in my opinion. The fact that it takes a human to
fuel the car was my point.

~~~
zalew
Depends how you look at it. In hi-tech Japan low-level dull jobs are
encouraged because they prefer that to unemployment. Thus there are 3 people
servicing your car on the gas station (I only read about it, not sure if still
true), every one of them has healthcare, etc. Nation-wide, in the long run
supporting such jobs may be cheaper than dealing with the side-effects of
unemployment.

As a different example, in GCC countries immigrants also tank your car, but
there it's just cheap means of comfort.

~~~
learc83
It's _much_ more efficient to just give the money out directly via a negative
income tax, or a guaranteed basic income if that's your goal.

~~~
zalew
I'm yet to hear of an example where giving money away to the unemployed cured
socio-economical problems, especially in cultures where there is a social
stigma attached to joblessness and living off benefits. Hiring for low wage
jobs doesn't necessarily raise financial status, but gives access to social
services and prevents side-effects like detachment from the job market, petty
crimes, mental illnesses and addictions. Or to put it more simply: do you
prefer an unemployed who's got cash for booze and nothing to do, or would you
prefer him to be at work like all his peers and family?

~~~
learc83
Well there was that recent program that was posted about here where the basic
income worked splendidly in a an African village.

>specially in cultures where there is a social stigma attached to joblessness
and living off benefits

That's part of the point of a basic income as opposed to other means tested
programs, there is no social stigma attached because everyone gets the basic
income.

> prevents side-effects like detachment from the job market, petty crimes,
> mental illnesses and addictions.

How does low wage menial labor prevent mental illness or addictions. Sure
people who are mentally ill or are addicted to hard drugs are are less likely
to hold jobs, but the causality is in the opposite direction.

>do you prefer an unemployed who's got cash for booze and nothing to do, or
would you prefer him to be at work like all his peers and family?

I'd prefer people do meaningful work that benefits the economy, instead of
useless menial labor. Gas station attendants are almost completely nonexistent
in other states, so clearly they aren't needed or wanted by the market.

Here's a proposal that should mesh with that ideology. Enact regulation that
says that grass must be cut by hand with scissors. Watch companies spring up
overnight to employ tens of thousands of low wage laborers.

Economists on all sides from Milton Friedman to Keynesians, to die hard
socialists support some kind of basic income over our current welfare system.
These are people who are diametrically opposed on almost every other issue yet
they agree on this.

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sown
So I guess the near-term future is to commoditize the battery like Blue Rhino
propane tanks you can swap around at the grocery store?

~~~
Jach
That's what I thought, though "bill you the difference" indicates they're not
treating their batteries like propane tanks. Hopefully someday.

~~~
cdash
Yeah, it sounds like you have a couple options. You can return to the station
you swapped your battery at and get your old one back. You can also decide to
keep the battery and you will either end up paying a certain amount of money
that is determined in how much better condition the battery you have now is
than your old battery or you can pay to have your old battery shipped to
wherever you are.

~~~
tmzt
If that's the case how they avoid storage costs for the batteries in the
automated retrieval system? What's the upper limit on batteries that can be
kept at a single location? What about a two week plus trip?

~~~
cdash
I don't know what the limit is but I think they said 50 batteries to start
with more added at a later date as needed. But yeah, I would assume they might
need to end up charging for leaving your battery there for an extended length
of time.

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cicloid
I'm still waiting for Mr. Fusion in my car.

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sliverstorm
Heh, _approaching_ the fill time of my 2-gallon motorcycle in college. :)

~~~
codfrantic
I have a 4-gallon motorcycle and I love not getting off / taking off helmet at
pumps where I pay through a terminal at the pump :-D

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ck2
This is great but remember no existing model can do a battery swap.

Only the next gen which has been re-engineered will be able.

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durkie
Not so sure about that:
[https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/347082201596321794](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/347082201596321794)

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ck2
Oh wow, okay I guess what I read the other day was incorrect.

