
Today’s Brexit Likelihood Score - yread
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/
======
sarreph
I love Bloomberg's flair and talent when it comes to producing rich articles
that feel like true web-based projects. In this story, for example, the way a
single star falls from the EU crest at the top, and also how the cursor X-axis
position acts as a guide for the marker on all charts on the page.

However, one chart I take a (small) issue with is their "Today’s Brexit
Likelihood Score" chart — surely it is much more intuitive to have the blue
('remain') bar filling up the inverse of what they're currently drawing? I.e.
76.27% filled

~~~
colinramsay
I came here to say this. It's incredibly confusing to the point where I wonder
if it's a mistake or bug.

~~~
sarreph
Yeah, but what makes me think it is a mistake is that they are focussing on a
'23% chance of Brexit' figure, using the same blue as the chart line. So
perhaps what they really ought to do is just swap the line around.

~~~
jeroen
They should use the same 3 colours as in the line chart below, and not add
undecided to remain.

------
philh
I'm more inclined to trust bookmakers than polls.
[http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-
refe...](http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-
referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result)

Currently, the best odds you can get for 'stay' are 4:9, and the best odds for
'leave' are 21:10, which suggests odds of about 2:1 for staying, i.e.
Bloomberg is overconfident.

~~~
corin_
Sure, after last year we definitely don't want to be too eager to assume that
pollsters know what's coming in the UK, and if they fail as spectacularly as
in the GE then certainly the bookies may prove to have been more accurate, but
then so could me picking chance percentages out of the air and telling people
they're my predictions.

What makes you think either the bookies or the punters have any clue what
accurate pricing would be for that market?

~~~
philh
The bookies' entire business model is to have a better clue than anyone else
about what the accurate pricing would be. If they fail at that, they don't
stay in business for very long.

~~~
Lio
Isn't a bookie's business model based around laying off one side of a bet
against the other rather than predicting the future?

When you win at long odds, in a perfect system, it's not the bookie's money
you're taking it's a share of money collected from the punters who bet on the
favourite (minus the bookmaker's margin).

The bookie shouldn't care what's likely to happen or not, their pricing should
be based on the collective opinions of the punters, right or wrong.

    
    
      > So how does a bookmaker set his original odds? We mentioned before that most of
      > the early bookmakers will have a number of experts in each sport and they will
      > come to a decision as to the opening prices. However, it is important to note
      > that the odds they set are not based on the true probability of the teams
      > winning, but rather what the general betting public perceive the true
      > probability to be.
    

[https://betting.betfair.com/the-art-of-
bookmaking.html](https://betting.betfair.com/the-art-of-bookmaking.html)

------
harel
This approach should be taken by both camps. By that I mean, use actual real
data to drive their point. At the moment all we get from both sides us
emotional opinions and speculation without a single data point to back it up.
I am on the fence regarding the eu (and I'm both British and European
nationality wise). I want to be persuaded this way or the other but not by
emotions. I want cold hard facts and analysis. And I'm getting none of that.

~~~
ed_blackburn
Absolutely. It's a head vs heart debate. I understand the heart bit. But the
head bit seems open-and-shut to me (remain). I've yet to see a convincing
argument to leave that doesn't lead with heart (immigration and the UK innate
supremacy over Europe).

There is a distinct lack of facts from both camps.

~~~
harel
For me its the opposite. My heart wants to stay, my head resists. To (maybe
badly) put it in code, its like a great interface provided by this wonderful
company people like to love, but the practical implementations of that
interface are so lacking it looks bad on the interface itself.

------
pdkl95
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMk6aVsl8Rs#t=66](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMk6aVsl8Rs#t=66)

If you're interested in this topic, I recommend this discussion with
(pragmatic) economist Mark Blyth and Yanis Varoufakis. They talk about brexit,
Greece, and what it will take to fix the economic mess in the EU.

------
Overtonwindow
Given the British' press ability to predict the last elections and political
outcomes, I remind everyone that nothing is set until the votes are tallied.
This article really gives us nothing but a snapshot that is probably already
outdated.

------
FedexNOLLY
nice

------
Kenji
It's funny how one might think that being in the EU is voluntary, but as it
seems, a country cannot get out, or really, regain any sovereignty, for fear
of economic problems. That is like saying "I cannot leave this abusive
relationship because I will be lonely and heartbroken." and continue to get
punched and scratched every day.

~~~
gambiting
If you are in a relationship with someone and you share rent for a flat,
breaking up with them would mean that now you live on your own and have to pay
2x as much. It's a serious economic concern, because it might cripple you
financially, at least until you find another roommate or move.

But, that doesn't mean that you are not free to break up with someone. You
just have to be an adult about it and live with the consequences.

~~~
arrrg
I mean, there is a more subtle point right there.

In actual abusive relationships this interdependency is one of the important
factors that keeps the abused in the relationship. It’s one of the things that
makes abusive relationships so hard to escape and consequently so horrific.

That said, interdependency is also just as much a part of non-abusive and
completely healthy relationships, i.e. the mere existence of interdependency
doesn’t decide whether a relationship is abusive or not.

To me the EU and UK relationship is a clearly non-abusive one. I wouldn’t call
it healthy, but mostly because the UK is frequently completely disengaged from
the process and disinterested in actually being part of the relationship. They
could have so much say and power … but they don’t want to. Rather they want to
spend all their time worrying and drawing up horror scenarios.

I do not want the UK to leave, but I also don’t think that a UK this
disengaged is not very productive to have inside the EU.

------
monk_e_boy
Should we stay or should we go? No one seems to have a clear idea. But the UK
is full of middle aged and the older generation who are scared shitless of
change. The younger generation (18 - 35) aren't in a position where the EU
membership effects them in any tangible way. So we'll end up staying for the
wrong reason. Fear.

Where I live we get a metric shit tonne of EU funding, but I assume that if we
left, the funding would just come from the government. Or we'd get none. Who
knows? Who knows if the EU funding will dry up if we stay? We are so powerless
it is unreal.

~~~
viraptor
> The younger generation (18 - 35) aren't in a position where the EU
> membership effects them in any tangible way

You mean the age group which actually travels, studies abroad, looks for new
jobs which right now they can choose from all over the EU, has more
international contacts than previous generations, etc. ? I'm sure they're more
affected in very practical ways than older generations.

I'm affected in at least 3 ways, and I'm not even in Europe anymore.

~~~
monk_e_boy
> the age group which actually travels, studies abroad, looks for new jobs
> which right now they can choose from all over the EU, has more international
> contacts than previous generations

Oh yeah, rich people stuff.

I don't know many people who've done that. I know one guy who left for the
USA, I know one or two older people who go on a regular holiday out of the UK
each year. 90% of my friends have been abroad once or twice, but it's not an
influence on their current EU debate.

~~~
viraptor
Not only rich people. 8 people from my first university class did a year
abroad on EU programs. (some couldn't afford it otherwise) At my last
university, most of the year was not from the UK, which was funny when a GCHQ
guy tried to recruit people - most of them not the right nationality to hire.

Or from another side, I expect most people from Poland are not going to work
in the UK because they're rich and can afford it. They move where the work is
and suddenly two parts of the family have a reason to travel internationally.
Exactly because they're not rich.

