

The fall of Big Paper - jbellis
http://www.forbes.com/sites/venkateshrao/2012/03/13/the-end-of-pax-papyra-and-the-fall-of-big-paper/

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blahedo
A big problem with this prediction of the imminent decline and fall of paper
is that it seems to neglect the fact that paper is soooooooo cheap. Also comes
with many affordances, sure, but it is _so cheap_. That makes it easy to use
for one-off notes, and it makes it easy to use lots of pieces of paper at the
same time. In contrast, although a laptop or tablet or smartphone is capable
of holding many more documents than would be convenient to carry in a stack of
papers, it has a hard time displaying them all _at the same time_ as is nearly
trivial with paper.

For instance: when giving certain sorts of exams (or other assignments), you
want the students to be able to have a reference sheet (for notation,
formulas, vocabulary, whatever) plus the sheet with the
question/problem/assignment on it, plus the sheet they're actually writing
their answer on. The same thing on even a large desktop screen will involve a
moderate amount of window swapping (and, as a result, cognitive context-
switching).

Even just for reading textbooks and technical material, only the larger
desktop monitors come close to replicating the amount of real estate available
in a two-page spread.

I think a lot of the technical issues are likely to be solved in a relatively
short time, as the author suggests. But I'm pretty sure the incredible
cheapness of paper (compared to anything electronic) will keep it in business
for many years to come.

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Stwerner
While programming I love scribbling down notes and ideas on a notepad. There
is something about the change in mindset or context from screen and keyboard
to pen and paper that helps me see the whole picture of what I am working on,
or even just get a thought out of my head temporarily to be able to stay on
the current task. Does anyone else do this, and have you found any piece of
technology to replace that?

~~~
zheng
I have a real desire for a ~ 8.5x11 (or A4, it doesn't really matter I guess)
size whiteboard built into my desk right in front of my keyboard. That could
probably replace paper for 95% of my ideas. If they could come out with a
finer tipped marker, I would be in heaven.

~~~
rflrob
I think the key idea you've hit on is that paper is relatively permanent, even
when we don't need it to be. For lots of moderate term stuff, it could easily
be replaced if only it weren't quite as cheap.

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BenoitEssiambre
I wonder if having multiple tablets so that we didn't have to switch apps so
much to take notes would render paper obsolete.

Imagine a student with three tablets open side by side, one in a note app, one
in a textbook app and a third one for other apps.

With tablet prices going down in prices, this isn't such an unbelievable
scenario.

I haven't seen anyone using multiple tablets yet. Has anyone else witnessed
it?

~~~
batista
_I wonder if having multiple tablets so that we didn't have to switch apps so
much to take notes would render paper obsolete._

Where does the assumption that we mostly use paper to take "notes" from things
we read in other computer media come from?

 _Imagine a student with three tablets open side by side, one in a note app,
one in a textbook app and a third one for other apps._

And why not imagine just one tablet with note-taking integrated or a way to
switch between apps momentarily?

It's not like you don't already divert your eyes and attention from the
physical book to the paper you take notes in in order to take a note. So, why
have two tablets?

Also why the third tablet? If the student is studying some textbook and
keeping notes, why would he have other apps open? So he could destroy his
attention span?

~~~
batista
Is multitasking controversial to HN?

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scarmig
What would solve a lot of my problems with paper and current electronic
solutions:

Imagine some kind of touch mirasol with a matte screen and very thin body. You
have a mode available where you can write on it with a stylus and can easily
erase using your finger.

As you write, you get instantaneous updates that simply show your handwriting,
making it look very similar to if you had written it on paper.

Certain motions also exist, however, to "neaten" a region of your notes
(change them into a form that, though not a font, is better aligned and more
readable) or to convert it outright to computer readable characters. Other
versions could add syntax highlighting or other use-specific features.

Options like automatic saving, simultaneous editing, or projecting your notes
are available.

How difficult is this with current technology? Would current generation e-ink
work?

Edited to add: folding is also key, though obviously not now ready for
primetime.

~~~
andrewflnr
I'm sure if someone started working on it now, the technology would be ready
in time, if it isn't already. It seems to me like the hardest part is getting
the body thin enough (though Kindles are pretty thin now), and maybe
refreshing fast enough that writing doesn't feel weird.

By folding, do you mean you want to be able to fold up the device?

~~~
scarmig
Yeah. One of the great advantages of tree paper is flexibility and durability.
I don't need to carry around a case to have a piece of paper to write on.

Sure, with tree paper it's annoying to have a fold in the paper, but even that
problem is solved when you use the kind of e-paper I'm imagining. Not an
absolute necessity, but something about having the ability to physically
manipulate the dimensions of what you're using is just so useful. Don't need
to use the entire screen? Fold it in half, and you're set.

~~~
andrewflnr
> Sure, with tree paper it's annoying to have a fold in the paper, but even
> that problem is solved when you use the kind of e-paper I'm imagining.

Meaning it resists permanent creases, or has actual hinges?

Anyway, I'm totally with you. I'm still waiting for flexible computers. For
some reason I keep seeing a pot-holder form factor; I must have been messing
with one when I was thinking about this a while ago.

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nathanlrivera
Paper manufacturers should start making consumables for 3d printers.

~~~
philwelch
If 3D printer consumables can be made from trees, that would be easily
possible. Otherwise, it's probably just a matter of doubling down on wood.

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tricolon
How strange: "Empire" in the subsection heading "The Decline and Fall of the
Paper Empire" links to <http://www.forbes.com/companies/empire/> for no
apparent reason. Perhaps an autolinker run amok?

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crag
The one paper still holds over any other "media", convenience.

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zby
Venkatesh Rao articles seem popular here :)

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kreate
paper is more basic. everyone can use a pen. you don't lose any time or
effort.

~~~
andrewflnr
But it's only a matter of time before pens become just as convenient on a
computer, with the added benefit of being able to store, copy, index, etc your
notes.

