

The Lesson of Iraq (1958) - tokenadult
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1958/12/the-lesson-of-iraq/306494/?single_page=true

======
vincie
Frivolous, theoretical question: What would happen to the Middle East
situation if, say, the Western World suddenly switched to alternatives to oil,
en masse? Electric vehicles, nuclear power generation, bicycles - whatever. Is
there more to it than just oil?

~~~
cup
Based on my experience in the Middle East I would think something like the
following would happen.

Gulf states would switch to a financial economy as quick as possible, states
such as the UAE and Qatar would succeed but states such as KSA and Bahrain
would fail. In the immediate short term nothing would happen but within a year
there would be widescale protests through out KSA as public sector employs
realise they have no equity what so ever.

Outside of the gulf, North African countries would undergo massive social
upheaval as the ruling elite and powerclass fled and left behind those who are
unforunate enough to not be able to escape. The Levant would be sheltered
primarily due to their lack of reliance on petrochemical dollars though Syria
would degenerate.

Iran would diversify and overcome the situation. They've been under embargo
one way or another for nearly 30 years so they have experience in maintaing
the necessary cash flow to pay their citizens and avoid major economic
collapse.

In the medium term you would see the complete collapse within the gulf of the
ruling class. The royal families would flee and take as much money as they
could while their underlings would be handed the reigns. They would fail and
social anarchy would take over before the common people reverted back to
Islamic governance. For a generation at least you would see fundamentalist
Islamic theocracies pop up as people vied for power but no real governing
institution would rule.

Now that we're looking so far into the crystal ball things could go either way
but there is a possibility that the Arabs would return to a Kilafa style of
governance which would actually reunite the Arab World, see human rights (at
least an Islamic interpretation of it) flourish, education take off, economic
and social reform at a level never thought possible etc etc.

But really, at the end of the day shutting the oil off will probably only have
minor consquences. The Middle East has spent trillions of dollars diversifying
to protect themselves from the inevitable reduction in demand for oil.

~~~
fafner
> Iran would diversify and overcome the situation. They've been under embargo
> one way or another for nearly 30 years so they have experience in maintaing
> the necessary cash flow to pay their citizens and avoid major economic
> collapse.

Iran is quite an industrialised and high-tech nation with many skilled
engineers. I know they look a bit bad when they release videos of model
aircraft as fancy stealth bomber. But I have no doubt that they'd overcome
such a situation.

It looks much worse for the Arab oil nations because they lack industry,
skilled engineers or labour, or any kind of research. The financial market is
a fragile thing and well Dubai is build on sand. We've seen in the crisis that
nations with an industrialized base did much better than nations who were more
focused on financial markets.

In Arab oil countries the situation is that large projects are designed by
European, American, or East Asian engineers and architects and the
construction is done by basically South Asian slave labour. In the end the
building is left but nothing of the know how and skills that came with the
project.

Another big indicator is the lack of a Saudi space program. Usually if a
nation just has too much money a space program is a great way to boost
engineering, science, industry in the country. Even Nigeria has a space
program. Alternative would be a build up of the military. Which the Gulf
states are clearly doing. But they import all their weapons from Europe or the
US. Again no domestic research or industry. And military isn't really an
investment. Once you try to reduce the budget the fighting power decreases
dramatically and your past investments start to rot.

edit: My crystal ball is therefore rather showing negative picture. I believe
there will be huge social unrest. It won't happen immediately but gradually.
It will turn out similar to Egypt, Libya, or Syria. Currently the Saudis and
Gulf states are using radical Sunni Islamists as a way to fight Shia
Islam/Iran. They already used Islamism as a tool against Panarab Socialism but
their current support goes far beyond that. And this will all eventually come
back to them. There could even be an open war between Iran and the Gulf
States.

~~~
vincie
Something else I do not understand: Why does the violent antagonism between
Shia and Sunni branches still exist and so widespread? I am aware of the
antagonism between Protestants and Catholics in Northern Ireland, but that
seems to be also based on ethnic lines (native Irish versus English immigrant
stock) and everyone else in the Western World has moved on.

~~~
cup
Its a contentious theological issue which finds its history immediatly
following the death of the Prophet(saw).

I could go into detail if you would like but its a very complex and painful
story. The wikipedia page probably covers it rather well.

------
Tloewald
Like many foreign policy documents of the early cold war -- clearsighted and
to the point and very depressing.

------
AnthonBerg
Down atm?

Google cache:
[http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:grI6ylM...](http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:grI6ylMic7gJ:www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1958/12/the-
lesson-of-iraq/306494/+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=is)

------
cpleppert
It strikes me as being rather too naive politically. We can't expect perfect
hindsight but predicting how politics develops in states focused on the
extraction of natural resources and close ethnic ties isn't rocket science.
Highly organized ethnic groups take control and use oil resources to maintain
political support. It is why strongmen in the middle east so often come from
ethnic or religious minorities. (Syria, Iraq to name a few). Tribal structures
make it impossible for a liberal opposition to build a winning coalition.

Democracy isn't magic and just suggesting that we should help democratic
parties when we can is a 'no kidding' suggestion.

