
Is Legal Pot Crippling Mexican Drug Trafficking Organisations? - mpweiher
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/01/legal-pot-crippling-mexican-drug-trafficking-organisations.html
======
randomdrake
Study: Is Legal Pot Crippling Mexican Drug Trafficking Organisations? The
Effect of Medical Marijuana Laws on US Crime

Citation: Gavrilova, E., Kamada, T. and Zoutman, F. (2017), Is Legal Pot
Crippling Mexican Drug Trafficking Organisations? The Effect of Medical
Marijuana Laws on US Crime. Econ J.

Link:
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12521](http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12521)

DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12521

Abstract: We show that the introduction of medical marijuana laws (MMLs) leads
to a decrease in violent crime in states that border Mexico. The reduction in
crime is strongest for counties close to the border (less than 350 kilometres)
and for crimes that relate to drug trafficking. In addition, we find that MMLs
in inland states lead to a reduction in crime in the nearest border state. Our
results are consistent with the theory that decriminalisation of the
production and distribution of marijuana leads to a reduction in violent crime
in markets that are traditionally controlled by Mexican drug trafficking
organisations.

------
olivermarks
No....

'The Sinaloa cartel can buy a kilo of cocaine in the highlands of Colombia or
Peru for around $2,000, then watch it accrue value as it makes its way to
market. In Mexico, that kilo fetches more than $10,000. Jump the border to the
United States, and it could sell wholesale for $30,000. Break it down into
grams to distribute retail, and that same kilo sells for upward of $100,000 —
more than its weight in gold. And that’s just cocaine. Alone among the Mexican
cartels, Sinaloa is both diversified and vertically integrated, producing and
exporting marijuana, heroin and methamphetamine as well.'
[http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/17/magazine/how-a-mexican-
dru...](http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/17/magazine/how-a-mexican-drug-cartel-
makes-its-billions.html??mtrref=undefined)

and that was in 2012...

~~~
bretpiatt
The marijuana market is twice the size in US Dollars vs. the cocaine market
and nearly half the volume of the overall drug trafficking.

[http://www.talkingdrugs.org/report-global-illegal-drug-
trade...](http://www.talkingdrugs.org/report-global-illegal-drug-trade-valued-
at-around-half-a-trillion-dollars)

~~~
13of40
Maybe this is a west coast perspective but I would have guessed that even
before it was legal the vast majority of the marijuana market was served by
domestic producers versus imports, whereas cocaine is all imported.

Edit: Some googling produces estimates ranging from 30 to 70 percent imports,
depending on the point the article is trying to make, so let's just call it
50% domestic nationwide.

~~~
nv-vn
Totally is. I live on the East Coast in an illegal state and all weed around
here is either imported from legal states or grown locally. It's not hard to
find grow ops or people who will ship weed here. In a world where mass
quantities of drugs are so easily available on the darknet, it seems
ridiculous to think the domestic MJ market is primarily run by cartels.

------
caro33
If the crime rate is decreasing in the U.S. this is not being reflected within
mexican borders. As Mexico has just been through its most violent year in
history. [https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-violence/mexico-
mu...](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-violence/mexico-murders-hit-
record-high-dealing-blow-to-president-idUSKBN1EH0LK?il=0)

------
partycoder
The US needed a lot of morphine during WW2. So it bought all the morphine
Mexico could produce.

After the war they were left with lots of crops but no legal market for them.
This led many of them to turn to the illegal market.

Cartels pay a lot of money in bribes and security which will not be necessary
with legalization. It is possible they just become legal growers.

------
ttul
Why doesn't Mexico just legalize heroin and cocaine distribution? Wouldn't
this put an end to the cartels?

~~~
philipkglass
I don't know how popular that would be with Mexican voters, even if it
drastically reduced the money flowing to cartels.

Probably more important than domestic sentiment is the inevitable retaliation
that would follow from the United States government if Mexico just legalized
all drugs. I wouldn't be surprised if the US government cut off trade with
Mexico and started running overt and covert operations to ensure Mexican
prohibitionist politicians take power again. In the worst case the US
government might even deploy armed forces across the border, to ensure that
American law is enforced in Mexico, like it did with Panama in 1989.

~~~
yazaddaruvala
Canada legalized marijuana, the US did not react.

Mexico could legalize marijuana with little US recourse.

Heroin and Cocaine might be problematic.

~~~
philipkglass
I don't think that the US government would react drastically if Mexico
legalized cannabis. I think that it would react drastically if Mexico
legalized "hard" drugs, as ttul suggested.

On further consideration, I don't know if legalizing all drugs _in Mexico_
would really hurt drug smuggling profits. The value of the product would still
be much higher on the US side of the border. Legalization would just decrease
the costs to source the drugs in Mexico. Lower barriers-to-entry into the
smuggling business might reduce profit margins for smugglers as a group,
depending on how violent the competition is. For a historical parallel, I
guess I should read up on how Canada's economy and violent crime rates were
affected by US Prohibition, when alcohol became much more valuable on the US
side of the border than the Canadian side.

~~~
ttul
Since production of alcohol in Canada was legal during the US prohibition,
presumably all of that production was done by legitimate businesses. Then
licorice macularis would be on the right side of the law until they cross the
border. Thus there would be no need for criminal activity until you reached
the border. Right?

~~~
philipkglass
That's the null hypothesis. It seems to make intuitive sense. I still need to
read up before I find out if that is how it actually worked.

------
bluedino
It's weird - it's very hard to find 'Mexican dirt weed' these days, since all
the medical dispensaries opened up.

The medical stuff costs a little bit more, but it is way better. But you can't
even find the old crap if you look.

~~~
eric_h
I stumbled upon stuff that was of a similar quality to 'Mexican dirt weed'
(though we called it 'Mexican brick weed' back in the day) on smaller islands
in the Bahamas and in a couple of places in Eastern Europe.

I agree, though, that I haven't seen anything even remotely close to that
garbage anywhere in the US in the last 10 years.

And the price for the really good stuff has actually come down a fair bit
(10-30%) in the last ~5 years (especially in the last 2), even on the black
market.

------
snarfy
Northwest Cannabis Solutions, one of the largest cannabis growers in
Washington State, is run by the Russian Mafia.

I'm not sure about Mexican cartels, but legalization certainly hasn't stop
organized crime involvement.

~~~
sunyata
Do you have a citation for that? Ive been to a shop or two that felt a little
sketchy but this interests me.

~~~
snarfy
No citation unfortunately. My friend who runs a dispensary told me.

~~~
Inostranetz
Comical, your source is "my friend told me"?

~~~
ianai
On the internet, that flies. It might not seem completely trustable but then
again nothing on the internet should be taken alone. Further, it’s not like
there are many safe ways to make such a claim.

~~~
zupreme
Agreed. Obviously the mafia doesn't participate in surveys so, barring
criminal charges or conviction, anecdotal evidence is the best one can hope
for.

------
aaron-lebo
PDFs:

[https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=39284158802843660...](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=3928415880284366038&hl=en&as_sdt=0,44)

~~~
tomrod
Awesome. Thanks!

------
disputatious
The traffickers and criminal organizations in Mexico are distinct. The cartels
responsible for trafficking today only use marijuana to enhance their people
smuggling bottom line. The big marijuana industry from Mexico and Colombia
were greatly diminished years ago. There is still a thriving local illegal
marijuana market in Mexico and Colombia as well today, the ounce costs around
$20-$50 depending where you are, there are some good wild strains too that
fetch high-dollar in the states among connoisseurs, that market is not cartel
controlled. Mexico's politics will be better determined based on what happens
in the United States and Canada in coming months. Marijuana was partially
legalized in Mexico in 2016, it is quite likely that Canada and Mexico will
collaborate closely on this.

------
matchagaucho
I recently had a candid conversation with an ex-Con about this very subject
while vacationing in MX.

Yes, pot _exports_ have declined, but MX is _importing_ the latest growing and
manufacturing processes from CO, WA, CA, OR innovators (and presumably serving
their domestic pot needs).

Coke still remains the biggest revenue generator.

------
tomohawk
If they really wanted to cripple the cartels, they would impose a tax on all
drugs sold by the cartels. This can be done without legalization. If caught
with drugs and no tax stamp, you get charged with tax evasion.

This would also raise needed revenues.

~~~
2_listerine_pls
You need to make it unprofitable by destroying their monopoly:

-Legalize production and possession. However, criminalize sales.

-Also, take the power to classify drugs away from the DEA.

------
pwaai
Will it just create another blackmarket with another organized crime taking
control? I'm not sure about legalized states in America but in Canada, from
what I hear all the dispensaries in Vancouver and beyond source it from the
black market.

Also unlikely that the overwhelming demand will be filled by the legal
producers after July 1st, it seems like such a long road to true legalization.

Tobacco is legal and yet allegedly about 1/3rd of tobacco sold in the Ontario
area are also smuggled from the US.

------
tomrod
The "Drug Trafficking Organizations" are the cartels. It is important to
remember they don't exist to traffic drugs, they exist for the top leader(s)
to obtain and maintain power, like a state-in-waiting. As other activities
become more profitable, they switch over to those. Marijuana loses its
profitability, they can switch to other drugs, guns, smuggling, "coyotes", or
legitimate enterprise.

This is what unfettered capitalism (anarcho-capitalism) looks like. I like
capitalism, generally, but divorcing morality (or, alternatively, failing to
separate socially-contracted power to coerce action) from economic gain
results in the violence and brutality.

~~~
michaelchisari
_Marijuana loses its profitability, they can switch to other drugs, guns,
smuggling, "coyotes", or legitimate enterprise._

Not disagreeing with your larger point, but the fact of the matter is that
it's a lot harder to sell people meth, coke, heroin, etc. than it is to sell
people pot.

If coca cola were made illegal, something that is bad for you by many metrics
but hardly life destroying, people are not going to switch to hard liquor in
the same way.

Kidnapping, hard drugs, smuggling, all of these are sources of income, but
they're dwarfed by pot sales. The hope is that the cartels can only maintain
the empires they have with a huge money maker like marijuana, and without it,
they may get more desperate and expand the worst of their operations, but they
will still shrink in their influence, power, geography and labor force.

~~~
unfunco
> it's a lot harder to sell people meth, coke, heroin, etc. than it is to sell
> people pot.

Only the first time. Then the opposite is true.

~~~
freeflight
On what basis are you making such a statement?

Afaik many people use meth for performance enhancement and as a cheaper
alternative to coke, heroin mostly comes in with people who've built up an
opiate addiction through prescription opiates and a cheap escapist solution.

Add in a generally very crappy living situation, where these substances are
used as means of escapism from reality, and most of the habit boils down to
all kinds of circumstances, but very rarely to this urban myth of "it's just
so addictive that you can't stop after the first time", as most of it has to
do with building habits on top of an already destructive lifestyle.

Case in point: I've done meth and coke more than once, and never did I feel
the need to "keep on doing it due to withdrawal". If anything, the side-
effects of something like meth make it very unpleasant to regularly use due to
being physically and mentally very taxing.

That's why I don't think there's some kind of "large untapped market" for
substances like these. Most people are still rational actors and if otherwise
content and happy with their life won't start with destructive behavior on the
sole basis of a substance being "super addictive".

~~~
Fnoord
> On what basis are you making such a statement?

That's whats being thought on _elementary_ school traditionally, haha.

You don't have to look far though. Look at the usage of Khat by Somalians and
Kratom by Thai. If its easily available and socially accepted, its gonna fly
and will be very difficult to get rid of.

I can't wrap my head around using meth. Speed alone makes my head swirl and
everything go fast. Exactly which performance would be enhanced by an even
stronger upper? Or is it people with undiagnosed ADHD who resort to meth?

In Europe though, I know drugs like these are used in clubs, but so is XTC
(MDMA & relatives) and GHB. XTC seems to be more rare in Eastern Europe where
speed is more rampant. Whereas heroin usage is on an all time low. But theres
people who go to clubs Thu/Fri/Sat (yeah, it starts on Thu for some reason).
And if they use multiple times a week, yep then it goes quickly downhill.

> That's why I don't think there's some kind of "large untapped market" for
> substances like these. Most people are still rational actors and if
> otherwise content and happy with their life won't start with destructive
> behavior on the sole basis of a substance being "super addictive".

Oh, I do! All these young goths who automutilate themselves (though a niche
subculture, I admit), teenagers in general cause of being unsure as well as
having to perform (study). If its more widely and easier available, its also
cheaper, and more accepted.

To be fair, I've also seen people addicted to booze, weed, and cigarettes. Its
just that these drugs are more socially accepted.

~~~
freeflight
> Exactly which performance would be enhanced by an even stronger upper? Or is
> it people with undiagnosed ADHD who resort to meth?

I've seen it very popular with people working in shifts doing physically very
taxing work, like warehouse workers in logistics, often combined with alcohol
as a downer.

I have atypical ADHS and a small line will keep me up (and mentally super
focused) for 3 days straight. But the crash that follows is really nasty and
can last for up to 2 days. Not something I'd want to go through regularly, I
can count on one hand how often I do that in a year.

That's snorting tho, I've heard and read that smoking it is way different and
more comparable to a heroin high (short, very intense, mostly fading away).
Nothing I would want to do if I want a downer I'm happy enough with some
Indica cannabis.

> teenagers in general cause of being unsure as well as having to perform
> (study). If its more widely and easier available, its also cheaper, and more
> accepted.

Imho this whole phenomenon of "experimenting teenagers overdoing it" is the
direct result of decades-long prohibition and stigmatization politics.
Educators and adults keep telling young people "Using this will make you
instantly go crazy and addicted, all your teeth will fall out!". But when they
try it they notice how it's not that bad, so they underestimate the actual
long-term effects and consider them as "just more fear-mongering", which then
leads to irresponsible long-term abuse.

The other side of that is the abuse of legal drugs, where people often overdo
them as they consider them "safer" due to being legal. For whatever reason way
too many people think this whole legal/illegal distinction is made on a
scientific basis of the substances actual effects when it really isn't.

~~~
saiya-jin
You are correct, but also overestimate how rational young&desperate perceive
these self-destructing habits. It's far more emotional, desire to give big FU
to all adults and their rules, and not giving a slightest damn about
consequences on one's body.

When you're 15, you don't care how your life will look like when you are 30.
It feels like talking about retirement.

God I am glad this period is long over, life can be so good now (and apart
from alcohol, a bit of weed and few spectacular mushroom trips I didn't do any
other substance).

------
aceon48
Hopefully

------
Donzo
I must admit I only read the headline, but I'm sure the organizations are
making due with the thin, tight-margins off black market cocaine, heroine, and
methamphetamine sales.

~~~
simonh
I'm really sorry for being pedantic, I'm uusally not like this, but I have
seen this frequently on HN. It's making do, not making due.

~~~
Donzo
In all seriousness, I greatly appreciate corrections like this in a way that
so few people do.

~~~
jedberg
Technically your "that" is superfluous. ;)

> In all seriousness, I greatly appreciate corrections like this in a way so
> few people do.

~~~
Donzo
I upvoted you.

