
How Many Tesla Model 3 Cars Have Been Made? - SREinSF
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/
======
Animats
Automobile final assembly lines produce about one car per minute. About 2400
per week for one shift. Some are slightly slower or faster, but not by a lot.

It's common to run two production shifts, but not three; one shift is needed
for line maintenance. 1,000 per week indicates the production line is running,
but having problems. This is much better than the few hundred per week from
December, which meant hand assembly.

One line should top out at 2 shifts, about 5000 vehicles per day, or about
100,000 per year. Then add a second production line.

If you really want to find out what's going on in Tesla's plant, find a United
Auto Workers organizer in a bar in Fremont and buy him a few beers.

~~~
reificator
If you ever want to get a feel for designing a plant that produces a car every
minute, I highly suggest taking a look at Factorio.

It's a little abstracted and a little gamey, but the core feel is there, and I
very much enjoy the logistics of it.

[https://www.factorio.com](https://www.factorio.com)

~~~
froindt
I'm an industrial engineer who also plays factorio. It does a _really_ good
job of teaching some of the core parts of running a factory.

* what happens when there are supply chain hiccups?

* how much inventory do I want? Converting too much iron to steel will waste resources. What is the right mix?

* where is my bottleneck? Making anything else faster doesn't matter for overall production.

* every process has different time, space, and energy requirements. Running off of entirely electricity or fossil fuels both have pros and cons.

I've thought a bit about how it could be used to teach students in the
classroom. It would be nice to have UI counters on the machines and setup a
small factory. The concept of quality would also be a cool extension.

It's also just fun to look at the resources required to build a product from
raw source. In real life the concept still applies - 10 lbs of ore will be a
fraction of that once refined and a small fraction of that once formed and
milled into a desk widget.

------
zyztem
Estimating production volume from serial numbers? Looks like a job for a
German tank problem:
[https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/20/german_tank_problem...](https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/20/german_tank_problem_and_leaky_data/)

~~~
fnayr
What do you do if Tesla is using a Linear Congruential Generator[1] to
generate their serial numbers? Then the highest number found gives no
information, even probabilistically. I don't know what the laws are on VINs
though, so maybe it's forced to be sequential.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_congruential_generator](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_congruential_generator)

~~~
dsr_
Here's the VIN decoder, valid since 1981.

[https://static.ogstatic.com/images/articles/2017/11/02232742...](https://static.ogstatic.com/images/articles/2017/11/02232742/vin_branded_2.png)

~~~
greenyoda
And more details here:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle_identification_number#...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle_identification_number#Components)

------
JohnJamesRambo
Maybe I missed it in the article but how many does Tesla need to make per day
to meet it's goals?

They are making 1,000 per week now (52k in a year at current rate) and have
500k reservations in line with $1,000 deposits?

So they need an order of magnitude increase in rate to fulfill the
reservations in a year?

I didn't know much about car numbers and it seems about 387k Toyota Camrys
were sold in 2017 for reference.

~~~
franciscop
The graphs show a clearly exponential grow rate. No idea how long it will keep
growing and when it'll start to plateau, but it does _not_ seem to be going to
suddenly, exactly this month stop growing. If they keep it like this apparent
10-20% increased production/week in 12 months they will be producing 3000-9000
cars/week.

So yeah, _IF_ (big if) they can keep it growing at the same exponential rate
it'd take around 65-34 weeks [0][1] to deliver 500k cars from now with 10% and
20% growth rates respectively:

[0]
[https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(1+%2B+1.2+%5E+x)+*+10...](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=\(1+%2B+1.2+%5E+x\)+*+1000++%3D+492000+from+0+to+80)

[1]
[https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(1+%2B+1.2+%5E+x)+*+10...](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=\(1+%2B+1.2+%5E+x\)+*+1000++%3D+492000+from+0+to+80)

~~~
intended
exponential growth rates in industrial production are HIGHLY unlikely.

At best you will have a step function as additional assembly lines come on.

OR you will have a max production ability, with various factors inhibiting
that production ability such as part issues, failures, faults and so on.

So either the plant is not at full capacity, and there are production issues.

OR the plants are at full capacity and more lines are being added.

(and you can have the worst of both)

~~~
icc97
It'll be an S-shape. Musk had images of it in his Model 3 presentation when he
first mentioned 'production hell'.

------
EwanToo
Nissan claim to have sold over 250,000 Leafs so far, and the new model has
range similar to the Model 3.

The race is definitely on, which is great news for those of us who just want
the best electric car :)

[https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-review/nissan/leaf/first-
drive...](https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-review/nissan/leaf/first-
drives/nissan-leaf-2018-review)

~~~
drewg123
I was excited by your comment, so I looked up the 2018 Leaf's range: 151mi in
the US vs 310mi for the Model 3.

Is there a different model in Leaf the UK? The article you link to says "235
miles (NEDC)/177 miles (WLTP combined)" for the Leaf. Or is the way EV's are
rated for range in the UK just different than is the US?

~~~
Ardren
That's interesting, this[1] press release says:

    
    
        400 km  (248 miles) using a Japaneses standard JC08.
        241 km  (150 miles) with EPA
        380 km  (236 miles) with NEDC
    

That's quite a range.

[http://www.nissan.com.au/Discover/News/2017/September/06/The...](http://www.nissan.com.au/Discover/News/2017/September/06/The-
new-Nissan-LEAF-raising-the-bar-for-electric-vehicles)

~~~
namlem
I'm pretty sure you can't buy that version in the US.

~~~
daveguy
I think those are for the same car, just using different standards for
measuring range. Depends on which is most accurate. If the US measure for
Tesla 3 is 300+ then it's probably apples to apples. But it would be
interesting to see the same standard measurements for the model 3.

~~~
thijsb
Correct. And the EPA tends to be most accurate. I've never hit NEDC numbers in
any EV.

------
stupidcar
Despite the delays, the shape of the estimated production curve is pretty
encouraging.

~~~
melling
They claimed to approaching 1,000 cars a week around the end of the year. I
put the numbers from Bloomberg on my blog on Thursday to track the accuracy:

[http://h4labs.org/tesla-is-approaching-1000-model-3s-a-
week/](http://h4labs.org/tesla-is-approaching-1000-model-3s-a-week/)

------
ppbutt
Anybody else worried/cautious about giving a company even more data about
one's location, driving habits, etc. (also, without that company sharing that
data with the user whose data it is) - also, knowing that the company is truly
in control of the vehicle? I'm all for renewable energy and electric vehicles,
but it could be done without selling the user.

~~~
SEJeff
From [https://www.tesla.com/about/legal](https://www.tesla.com/about/legal):

"""If you no longer wish us to collect Telematics Log Data or any other data
from your Tesla vehicle, please contact us as indicated in the “How to Contact
Us” section below. Please note that, if you opt out from the collection of
Telematics Log Data or any other data from your Tesla vehicle (with the
exception of the Data Sharing setting detailed above), we will not be able to
notify you of issues applicable to your vehicle in real time, and this may
result in your vehicle suffering from reduced functionality, serious damage,
or inoperability, and it may also disable many features of your vehicle
including periodic software and firmware updates, remote services, and
interactivity with mobile applications and in-car features such as location
search, Internet radio, voice commands, and web browser functionality."""

------
jl6
Saved you a click: 8357 (estimated)

~~~
Hamuko
If that's all you want out of the article, might as well not even click on the
comments section.

~~~
jl6
I always click on the HN comments first, whenever an article title has even a
hint of clickbait to it, and I am nearly always well rewarded for it.

------
glaberficken
Really curious about what the production bottlenecks are for the Model 3. Is
it batteries? Would be thankful to anyone able to point me to further info on
this =)

~~~
kuschku
The bottleneck is automation.

Tesla is still producing cars completely manually.

This is why Musk bought the automation company Grohmann. But after he demanded
they work 100h weeks (instead of their previous 35h weeks), and said unions
would be unnecessary, almost the entire company quit and left.

That's the current bottleneck, automation of assembly.

~~~
gmueckl
Grohmann is a German company. Having employees work more than 40 or 50 hours a
week on a regular basis is hard to defend legally. Employee protection is
pretty strict about that. Heck, even working more than 10 hours straight is
borderline illegal and puts the boss (not the employee) in very hot water.

So I can hardly believe that 100h per week were actually demanded.

~~~
kuschku
Not just work, but unpaid overtime, as Musk demands from most employees.

This story of the 80-100h demands was actually in German news at the time,
plus of course the complaints of making Grohmann dependent on a single car
company.

~~~
gmueckl
I missed that, but I am curious. Do you have references for that?

~~~
intended
Found these -

[https://www.businessinsider.in/Tesla-is-having-some-
predicta...](https://www.businessinsider.in/Tesla-is-having-some-predictable-
union-problems/articleshow/58302515.cms)

and then this

[https://qz.com/1107802/tesla-raises-wages-30-in-germany-
soon...](https://qz.com/1107802/tesla-raises-wages-30-in-germany-soon-after-
firing-its-us-workers/)

~~~
jsjohnst
None of those even vaguely hint at 100hr work weeks or anything even remotely
like that.

------
flexie
This is for once a great article about Tesla that is neither too critical, nor
too rosy. They actually do some intelligent estimations instead of just going
with whatever anonymous "analysts" or "experts" in the financial markets say.

It's a real issue for Tesla if they don't figure out how to build 500,000 cars
per year within the next 2-3 years because then they open up a flank for the
traditional car manufacturers who probably need 3-4 years before they can
market EVs that can compare in specs with model 3, most notably on range.

At around 200 miles/320 km, an EV has a range that makes it suitable as a
second car for the masses (as opposed to the passionate enthusiasts that might
buy in already at 100 miles or less). 200 miles is enough for driving around
the city. Currently, the Tesla models, Chevrolet Bolt, Renault Zoe, the new
Nissan Leafs, and Opel Ampera, have such ranges. This is the range segment
that the traditional car manufacturers are likely to open their first real
bids for competitive EVs in from this year and through the next 3-4 years.
Tesla can live with that since the segment is insufficient for the masses.
Average Joe will not buy an electric car with a 200 mile range. Ever.

At around 300 miles/480 km, an EV could be a real primary car if you live in
regions with sufficient charging stations. Currently, only the larger Teslas
and Model 3 are there. This is where Average Joe starts to buy. But the larger
Teslas are too expensive for Average Joe. As for model 3, it can hardly be
called a car for the masses until it is produced for the masses. And therein
lies the problem. If Tesla doesn't nail this range segment for higher end of
the medium priced cars produced at scale in the next 2-3 years, some of the
traditional car manufacturers may catch up. Don't forget that even if Tesla
reaches 350,000 cars in 2019, which is still a big if, they still leave most
of the chips at the table. They will have to go way beyond 1M cars yearly to
really close the upper medium price range for the traditional manufacturers.
Even 500,000 cars would leave most of the market for a handful of it's
competitors. And it would require one or two more Giga Factories to reach a
million, which they haven't started to build yet. As for the lower priced
cars, Tesla is not there yet, and the traditional car manufacturers may well
get there before Tesla if they get to experiment for 4-5 years with the medium
priced cars without loosing too much money. So Tesla really needs to hurry.

Around 400 miles/640 km, range is no longer an issue for almost any buyer. The
few exceptions are buyers in rural areas or buyers that need to commute very
far to and from work every day in cold weather or in mountain regions. A 100
mile commute to work in subzero temperatures, and/or in mountain regions would
mean that you would have to be very sure that your car is fully charged every
day, which would be too much of a hassle. But apart from such edge cases, most
people could skip charging for a full working week and still use a car with
400 miles range for commutes. And on road trips, they could drive as far as is
comfortable anyways, and if once every few years they needed to drive further
than 400 miles, they would likely have passed several charging stations on the
way. Currently, no cars are there, but Tesla will likely be first in this
segment with the larger models S and X, quite possibly within 1-2 years. Those
cars are not for the masses. It's not unreasonable to believe though, that
model 3 will have such range in 3-4 years.

At 500 miles/800 km, the range issue is solved for 99 percent of potential
buyers in the modern world. Tesla claims its new Roadster will have such
range. It is still to be seen whether that is true, but anyways, that car is
not for the masses. But maybe in 7-10 years, this will be standard in the
smaller Teslas...

~~~
madengr
I believe a 100 mile range is enough for a city car or secondary car. I have
an older Leaf and it’s fine for that. We’ll get a plug in hybrid soon to
replace the primary car (minivan).

Even at 300 mikes range, my wife would not drive an EV, due to range anxiety.
She won’t even drive my Leaf (she calls it a golf cart). This range anxiety is
all psychological, and it’s the main thing hindering EV adoption.

~~~
hexane360
Many cars don't even get 300 miles, although it's true you can "recharge" them
much quicker. One thing I'm not sure about: how long lasting are typical EV
batteries? Because I can see not wanting to buy a car that will have half its
range a few years down the road.

~~~
greglindahl
This article has an up-to-date chart with owner-reported data:

[https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1110149_tesla-model-
s-b...](https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1110149_tesla-model-s-battery-
life-what-the-data-show-so-far)

------
rdl
Why not just put a camera or other sensing system outside their one plant?
(People already do this using satellite photos of walmart parking lots, etc.
to get advance information about holiday sales.)

~~~
bvod
Who does this and do you have a source? It would be interesting to learn more

~~~
rdl
[https://www.theverge.com/2016/8/4/12369494/descartes-
artific...](https://www.theverge.com/2016/8/4/12369494/descartes-artificial-
intelligence-crop-predictions-usda)

[https://www.wsj.com/articles/startups-mine-market-moving-
dat...](https://www.wsj.com/articles/startups-mine-market-moving-data-from-
fields-parking-lotseven-shadows-1416502993)

[https://www.cnbc.com/id/38722872](https://www.cnbc.com/id/38722872)

------
mixmastamyk
Is that right they are encouraging people to record VINs and post them to a
website? Creepy.

~~~
sowbug
The potential creepiness is worse than that. VINs follow a specific
algorithmic format, so it's actually possible to make a website with _all_
VINs!

~~~
mixmastamyk
Same with credit card numbers, doesn't mean you'd want it tracked on a third-
party website.

