
Professional sporting events increase seasonal influenza mortality in US cities - elsewhen
https://privpapers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3628649
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rossdavidh
Couldn't we go further, and just say "cities increase seasonal influenza
mortality"? I mean, anything that is social, is almost certain to involve
increased transmission of human-to-human infectious diseases. Live theater,
classrooms, church services, drag shows, you name it, if it involves bringing
a lot of people together, it's probably going to increase the spread of
infectious diseases that spread by human-to-human transmission.

~~~
threatofrain
It's good to quantify and ballpark that damage instead of leaving it as an
intuitive guess. If public policy demands the trading of lives, at least it
shouldn't be done by way of blind poker.

This study ballparks it around 10-20 deaths per year per 100k residents.

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bartread
> It's good to quantify and ballpark that damage instead of leaving it as an
> intuitive guess. If public policy demands the trading of lives, at least it
> shouldn't be done by way of blind poker.

Yes, except that once the COVID situation is under control (assuming it can be
controlled; some might say that's a big assumption), lots of people will be
monumentally pissed off if this kind of study is used to justify ongoing
restrictions on attending sporting events, concerts, etc.

Everything in life is a risk. What I am painfully aware of at the moment is
that whilst everyone I know is willing to follow government guidance related
to COVID and to continue doing so for as long as is necessary, we are _all_
craving a return to normality, and are unlikely to be tolerant of tenuous
justifications for continuing restrictions after the crisis has passed.

~~~
klyrs
> we are _all_ craving a return to normality

Not _all_. I'm not. I'm missing a couple of things, but I'm not looking
forward to "normality". Not wasting my life on commuting has made a huge
difference in my life. I tend to get several colds per year, even in the
summer, which has added up to a moderate benefit. I hope that our increased
awareness of disease prevention will be enduring.

~~~
bartread
> Not _all_.

Look at the rest of my comment. When I said "all" I was clearly talking about
people I know, not everbody everywhere. Specifically people that _I_ know.

> Not wasting my life on commuting has made a huge difference in my life.

That's fair but it's also again quite clearly not what I was talking about.
Read what I've actually said: I'm talking about leisure and social activities.

Seriously: stop picking random out of context fragments out of peoples'
comments and building strawmen out of them just for the sake of being
disagreeable.

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nitrogen
_Seriously: stop picking random out of context fragments out of peoples '
comments and building strawmen out of them just for the sake of being
disagreeable._

Sometimes people are replying for the sake of everyone else reading, rather
than just the specific comment to which their words are anchored. This is how
conversations work in person, too, where a small fragment of one point can
lead to a tangent just based on that fragment.

~~~
bartread
> Sometimes people are replying for the sake of everyone else reading, rather
> than just the specific comment to which their words are anchored.

Then you can start a new thread, or reply to a more directly related comment.

> This is how conversations work in person, too, where a small fragment of one
> point can lead to a tangent just based on that fragment.

I know, and in the wrong context that can be pretty annoying as well.

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daenz
Everything is connected. Everything we do has some impact that causes benefits
and harms, and if we dig deep enough, we can certainly go down the rabbit hole
of attempting to show that we're hurting the entire world by merely existing
and going about our daily lives.

The question that is most interesting to me is how much will people agree to
give up civil liberties in response to these discoveries? Another interesting
question is will we equally study the benefits associated with the thing that
also has a harmful result?

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seizethecheese
The money quote:

“The arrival of a new professional sports team in a city, and the commencement
of play by that team, increases flu mortality in the city. The largest effect
comes from a new NHL team. A new NHL team moving into a city and starting play
causes an increase in weekly influenza mortality of 0.382 per 100,000
residents per flu season compared to cities with no professional sports teams.
Based on the sample means on Table 1, this result represents a 24.6% increase
in weekly flu mortality per 100,000 residents or a total increase of about 20
flu deaths over a year in each treated city. A new NFL team moving into a city
causes an increase in annual influenza mortality rates of 0.249 per flu
season, a 17% increase, equivalent to about 13 additional flu deaths over 52
weeks. A city that becomes home to a new NBA team experiences an increase in
flu mortality rates of 0.066 which is a 4.7% increase. The effect of a new
team on flu mortality is smallest in MLB where the entry of a new team results
in an increase in flu mortality rates of 0.059 or 5.3% increase.”

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koolba
There’s clearly more impact from indoor winter sports, such as hockey, vs
outdoor summer sports like football.

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wiredfool
Football is a typical summer sport that runs from September through January.

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koolba
Ha! As I wrote that I was thinking about football vs baseball and meant the
latter.

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ttul
I can foresee that one of the consequences of the pandemic will be a permanent
change in the way that society views transmissible diseases. Prior to March,
it was okay to gather in large groups and just get sick a few times a year.
After the pandemic, I’m not sure people will be okay with that anymore.

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fullshark
So many forecasts i hear about the fallout of this, such as everyone living in
private fortresses in the suburbs working from home, not going into large
groups ever again, abandoning the cities, conferences, and universities for
online vocational training seem dystopian to be honest.

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wittyreference
And frankly, speaking from one of the hotspots: this isn't even in the
rearview yet, and there's a huge fraction of people already grabbing denial
with both hands and returning to life-as-usual. The idea that we won't get
there when this is in the rearview mirror is like... it's not even a
disagreeing forecast, it's actively ignoring _what 's happening right now_.

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every
My wife and I both qualify as being in the high-risk, elderly population. Once
we had some grasp of the situation, we were both in immediate agreement that
our lives would have to be very different until there was an efficacious
remedy. We even postponed our 40th anniversary celebration indefinitely, ala
Ringo Starr. In the temporal realm everything can be replaced or done without
except for life itself. It makes no difference to us what others say or do in
this regard. We have cast our lot with science and best practices...

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jungletime
Seems like solution is open air stadiums, and minimum seat size. Sun's UV
tends to kill germs, and fresh air dilutes them.

We should get a study on how much cramped seating contributes to blood clots.
This is definitely an issue on long flights. But probably in some stadiums
too.

I went to an NHL arena for a concert. Seats were so cramped, my feet were
hurting halfway through. It was torture.

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lmilcin
The title should really say: human contact causes viruses to spread.

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fooker
Stepping out of your home increases your chance of dying.

Why do people go out then?

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TheGrim-888
As an analogy, opening my window increases my chance of getting skin cancer by
letting more light in. Should I therefore always keep my window closed? Is the
increased risk of cancer worth the benefit of having my window open? Should we
all be forced to live underground, because that would definitely save a
multitude of lives from skin cancer.

Sports events will always increase deaths, even in non-covid times. More
people will die from the regular flu and other non-covid disases. More people
will die from the increased travelling and accidents from that. More people
will die from the extra pollution associated with the extra amount of
traveling. More people will die when stressing themselves physically to
perform at a high level at the sport event. The same arguments can be made
about anything humans do.

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macintux
Studying and being aware of the net impact isn’t the same as saying we need to
eliminate sports.

