
Nokia Projects Disastrous Losses as Shares Plunge 17% - ytNumbers
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17678806
======
r00fus
"No one could have predicted..." Classic head-in-the-sand, barely-reactive
executive "leadership".

Is this what Microsoft and the Nokia BoD planned when they hired Elop, who
scrapped Meego and their N9 (now N900 running WP7) and wiped out their entire
existing "burning platform" revenue stream from Symbian?

This was all planned - it's not a disaster. The problem is, the plans may have
been too successful.

~~~
ticks
When you say planned, do you mean for Microsoft to eventually purchase Nokia
on the cheap, or to simply obliterate them?

~~~
r00fus
The plan was to obliterate Symbian and replace it with Windows Phone. Symbian
probably died faster than they planned.

------
asmithmd1
Did anyone else see how they executed on the launch of the new product that if
not successful the company will die:

[http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/04/09/the-
very-s...](http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/04/09/the-very-strange-
easter-sunday-launch-of-the-nokia-lumia-900/)

Most stores closed on Easter Sunday and recordings talking about the iPhone
4S. I would say Nokia is done.

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forgottenpaswrd
I said it before, and I have not changed my opinion:

In the Microsoft -Nokia agreement Microsoft wins disproportionately and Nokia
loses even if it wins.

If Nokia wins e.g with tablets, other companies will use Windows, if it loses
stock price goes down and Microsoft buys it(now officially) for cheap.

Elop looked and looks like a MS insider designed for the transition from Nokia
to Microsoft subsidiary.

Funny how Samsumg and Apple margins are "disproportionate" when Nokia used to
carry those margins with their high quality phones.

~~~
buu700
_Microsoft buys it(now officially)_

I wonder what the implications would be for Qt and KDE. I know Microsoft has
made some Linux commits in the past (in regards to its own interests), but I
can't imagine how it would justify actively developing a product which has no
place on Windows Phone (yet?) and only serves to weaken Windows' stranglehold
on the desktop.

~~~
JoshTriplett
Take a look at the KDE Free Qt Foundation:
[http://www.kde.org/community/whatiskde/kdefreeqtfoundation.p...](http://www.kde.org/community/whatiskde/kdefreeqtfoundation.php)

~~~
buu700
Yep, I'm familiar with that, but licensing isn't what I'm concerned about
(LGPL is pretty permissive as-is; this agreement was mostly relevant in the
days of Trolltech when Qt was GPL/commercial).

My main concern is that, despite the open governance, to my knowledge the
development and direction of Qt is still primarily driven by employees of
Nokia. I'm sure Qt would still do a fine job of existing and evolving under
the leadership of KDE contributors, but it would nevertheless be a major blow
to the framework to see so much talent whisked away at this critical time.

------
mtkd
The full impact of a recession for a couple of quarters is usually not felt
until several years later.

What we're seeing with Nokia, BestBuy etc. is the companies that didn't adapt
facing extinction. It should be happening to more - but they're being propped
up artificially - that can't be sustained indefinitely.

If you think the valuation for Instagram was wild - look at their metric
trends against these monoliths.

"but Instagram don't make anything" - in the western world we don't really
need to consume physical products so much any more - I've got 5+ TVs in the
house and 3 fridges - our consumption is moving to non-physical products.

~~~
loverobots
Nokia did adapt, it made one hell of a move backed by lots of Microsoft and
AT&T cash for promotions and had /has a special relationship with Microsoft.
Their native OS was no where near ready and being another Android phone maker
wasn't appealing (Other than Samsung, is anyone else making money on
Android?).

Sometimes, it just doesn't work out.

~~~
nakkiel
"Their native OS was no where near ready"

By that, I suppose you mean Meego.

I have recently used a N9 phone running Meego for a couple of hours and it was
a real pleasure. In many regards it's better than Android has been until
recently. It's snappy and looks well finished although look-wise there's work
to make it compelling.

It's not really fair to give any real feedback on such a short utilization
span but I wouldn't say the OS is "nowhere near ready".

Had they spent the same effort on Meego rather than on integrating the Windows
OS, they would have a very, very good OS.

With Qt, they would also have very good technical fundation for developpers.
Love or hate it, Qt programmers are very loyal to the library and praise it.
With its ease of use, it _could_ have been a developper-frendly platform.

I'd write a Qt app over a Dalvic-Java or Obj-C one anyday.

What I'd like to note on this story is that most tech writers feared that if
Nokia didn't take this path, they would be shamed and welcomed their move.
Now, given the sales both Microsoft and Nokia are shamed for taking this path.

~~~
tcolliers
I agree. I've been using the N9 since its release and I think Meego is very
close to being consumer-ready. Great UI, fast, stable, great built-in
software. Some built-in software lacks some features, it doesn't quite have
the tweakability Maemo had and there are a few bugs and shortcomings here and
there. But considering the small market the N9 was deployed in, one can only
wonder what it could have been if it had gotten more attention from Nokia.

I was an N900 user before that. I hoped Nokia would be a shining beacon in the
mobile space, with an open operating system and a more GNU/Linux software
stack than just the kernel. But those hopes were shattered by Elop's turn. I
guess Microsoft will continue to drive Nokia's market price further into the
ground so they can buy them for a few pennies.

------
hkmurakami
_"Shipments of Symbian devices are declining faster than we anticipated"_

Why management thought that consumers considering a Nokia smartphone (perhaps
generously?) over a bevy of competitors would pull the trigger instead of
waiting until a Windows8 phone is ready.

~~~
nextparadigms
Why would Windows Phone 8 make any difference? I don't think announcing they
will go WP7 is what killed their Symbian market. It would've died anyway.
They've lost more than half their market share in China last year alone.
Android has a market share of almost 70% in China now:

[http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/10/net-us-android-
app...](http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/10/net-us-android-apple-
idUSBRE8390AK20120410)

~~~
pagekalisedown
Seems like they hitched their wagon to the wrong horse going with WP7 over
Android.

~~~
kooshball
Your logic seems a little off there.

Just because Andriod has gained a huge market share in China does not imply
Nokia would have sold a lot of phones if they have gone with Andriod.

~~~
redthrowaway
I don't think his claim was predicated on the success of Android in China, but
rather upon the general success of OEMs shipping Android phones. It has users
and an ecosystem which WP7, interesting though it is, can't claim.

Many people would have lept at a Nokia smartphone running Android, given the
consumer goodwill they've built up over the years. Few seem willing to do so
for Nokias running WP7. Android was a proven platform with wide adoption when
they announced their support for WP7; their decision to hitch their wagon to
MS can only be seen as a grave mistake.

Maybe things will turn around, but it doesn't look likely at this point.

------
HTelrunya
1\. Android would be short term profits. Let's just take Chinese market. China
has 70% Android. Now, I am coming to the market and building a new Android
phone. It's awesome and everything but how do I stand apart from HTC, Samsung,
Moto and low cost options like ZTE? Imagine a Lumia running Android. Would I
be able to beat HTC and Moto and Samsung with that?

2\. I guess we will start seeing the Nokia MS partnership success going
forward when Nokia really has a chance of adding value to MS products.

I agree that Nokia took on the insane task of reviving themselves as well as
MS. But if they can get some sort of adoption with WP7, they can continue to
survive and add value to the ecosystem going forward with WP8. They have to
continue on life support until their true strategy kicks in to place.

~~~
Tuna-Fish
> I guess we will start seeing the Nokia MS partnership success going forward
> when Nokia really has a chance of adding value to MS products.

I doubt that. The biggest change was that the mobile devices turned from
devices (that people buy and use, but rarely get 3rd-party software for) into
platforms (that people buy to have access to 3rd-party software). The big
difference is that there are not that much positive externalities for market
share for devices, but positive network effects absolutely determine the
platform market.

That's why Windows rules the desktop, and that is why Android will do so in
the handset. I predict that all competitors will effectively be dead in 2
years, and only Android and iOS remain.

------
nextstep
This will make Nokia even cheaper when Microsoft decides to buy them. This
whole scenario reminds me of an old editorial cartoon which lampooned two
companies (HP maybe?) as two sinking ships tossing a rope to each other.

------
bnolsen
"Nokia's challenges have been exacerbated by rampant competition - notably
from Apple and Samsung who are extracting a disproportionate amount of margin
from the industry at present,"

Disproportionately high or low ? I guess what they are saying is that
smartphone profitability is falling due to lower margins.

MS/Nokia are in huge trouble, especialy after seeing that report that google
makes almost _no_ money off smartphones. It seems the only way for Nokia/MS to
really compete with google is to also make _no_ money. Sounds like Nokia is
now in the wrong business.

~~~
excuse-me
"competition" - that's the solution then. Once RIM have managed to destroy
themselves in the corporate world you are left with the choice of buy
Microsoft

MSFT's only hope in mobile, and their only reason for going there is to be the
standard business solution - the only one that works with MS-exchange, MS-
domain-emperor(or whatever it's called today) and MS-office cloud.

Once you ensure that corporates/government only allow MS mobile devices onto
their networks you have a pretty nice market sewn up. And one that doesn't
care about price and buys new kit regularly

The only tricky bit is persuading all those corporate and government customers
that they haven't had a perfectly workable blackberry solution for years, and
that they shouldn't save money by allowing workers to use their own iPhones.

~~~
Duff
You're thinking in terms of a 2005 business model.

Even government organizations are buying lots of iPhones, even though Apple is
an obnoxious vendor for those organizations to deal with.

Microsoft sells stuff these days by bundling product licensing. So unless
Apple does something really dumb, you're not going to see enterprises
mandating anything Microsoft mobile other than ActiveSync anytime soon.

~~~
AutoCorrect
ehh, Microsoft will fall back on the old tried and true: Change apis for each
successive version of Exchange, and make minor api changes during patches -
just enough to cause Apple products to work inconsistently, and make sure
Windows Phone X stays up to date with the changes. Corporations are too stupid
as a group to see what's being done to them, so they will drop Apple like
yesterday's news and join the Microsoft death-cult.

~~~
tomkarlo
Good luck telling corporate users that just a few years after you've allowed
iPhones and/or Android phones as their devices on your exchange server, you're
going to ban them.

It was easier for things like this to happen back when everyone was carrying a
company-issue blackberry (because blackberries were too expensive for most
consumers.)

These days, companies are increasingly just letting their employees connect
personal devices onto their exchange servers (with policy management) and
enjoying the savings from not having to pay for the device, data, or both. I
can't see either group (companies and employees) being happy about reversing
this trend.

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sekou
I don't know how much market share Apple has in India or the more prosperous
African countries, but without selling any kind of low-priced/low-tech phone
Apple doesn't compete at all with Nokia or Samsung in that market segment. I
wonder if Nokia is talking about lower sales specifically in the smartphone
segment or lower sales due to "competition" in other segments as well.

------
joejohnson
I wonder how much of this is related to the bug and subsequent price drop for
the Lumia 900. I was hoping for this phone to become a successful competitor
to Android in the lower-end smartphone market.

