
Fitbit Files IPO - uptown
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1447599/000119312515176980/0001193125-15-176980-index.htm
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epmatsw
I used to be pretty on the FitBit train, but I don't think that I'm in their
camp any more. Refusing to integrate with Healthkit, purposefully building
their challenges feature to reject data input through their APIs, and charging
for access to raw data are enough to ensure that I'll never buy one of their
products again. Kind of a shame, their hardware, dashboard, and app are all
pretty great :(

~~~
bradgessler
It's really easy as an engineer to feel bearish about FitBit because of how
shitty their acting from our viewpoint, but to people outside our community
FitBit makes a statement "I care about my fitness and well-being", works on
Android and iOS, has an app that's more actionable than Apple's Health app
("get off your butt and get 2000 more steps in" vs "you have 8000 steps
today"), and has several price points below the $349 Apple Watch.

I too thought Fitbit was screwed when Apple announced its watch, but after
seeing the prices and Apple's eye towards high-end consumers in this market, I
wouldn't underestimate Fitbit as a business.

~~~
Nelson69
There is something to be said about focus.

I have a surge that I was given. I also have some high end training devices I
use on the bike, Polar, Suunto and Garmin. Fitbit doesn't compete with these,
neither does apple watch (at least not yet.) The fitbit is easy to use, I do
find myself looking at the numbers on and off during the day, maybe walking a
bit more. I'm curious about the aria integration, that seems like another
killer piece of the weight loss and basic fitness equation.

The geek in me would love to be able to pull my fitbit data in to Rubitrack or
something else, at the same time, it's really not that kind of data. It seems
like it adds data to all the places where I didn't keep it before, for good or
bad. Not sure how that helps me out exactly (I put a couple hundred miles on a
bike every week) but if you're trying to lose weight or just get started with
some basic fitness, I could easily see it being really valuable. They have a
social integration component, I might be too old or a different kind of bird
but a badge for climbing flights of stairs doesn't do it for me like a top 10
in a bike race, the younger set seem to enjoy that stuff.

Seems like a really immature industry as a whole. And FWIW, Apple builds
killer laptops but Dell and the others still make them too. Apple builds a
great phone but there are still dozens of competitors in the market and some
of them are very compelling. Apple Watch seems like a market maker more than a
market killer. It is proof that the wrist watch is interesting again, I don't
think they're going to put all the other watch makers out of business any time
soon.

I don't know. We have a weight problem as a country, anything that helps
people get out and move more and gives them some motivation and keeps them
honest about it seems good to me. I wish them good luck.

~~~
eitally
I'm like you. I have a Fitbit One in my pocket and use a Garmin watch for
running & cycling. I'm bullish on Fitbit, but what I really wish is that
Garmin would high some competent engineers to improve Connect. The current
Vivo series really has me second-guessing the Fitbit, since it really would be
useful to has a synthetic activity view that combined my athletic workouts and
my daily "background" activity.

Every company's trackers have some defect, though. Garmin's software totally
sucks and it can't do HR tracking in the water. Suunto can do that but it's
platform syncs with almost nothing. Polar, until recently, refused to use
Ant+. Nike+ had a low barrier to entry, but then they figured out it would be
impossible to compete with Suunto, Polar & Garmin so they pivoted to become
just a platform. I read DC Rainmaker with avid interest, but as with things
like cycling power meters there is way too much fragmentation in the activity
monitor segment.

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mikestew
I dunno, this kind of reminds me of the Flip video camera. Great little
device, inexpensive. I bought one. Shortly after, cell phones became just as
capable of being fits-in-a-pocket video recorders. Maybe not HD, but good
enough. (Though some would argue cell phones had nothing to do with the demise
of Flip. [0])

I see a similar pattern with FitBit. It's a 3-axis accelerometer with some
firmware and software. Someone smarter than me could probably get something
working in a weekend (though weekend prototype to production is admittedly a
_long_ road). Worse, plenty of things have accelerometers in them. My iPhone.
Your Samsung phone. My Pebble watch, which uses the Misfit app to count steps
and track sleep without requiring that I actually buy a Misfit device. Some
garage outfit may not put Fitbit out of business, but larger device
manufacturers might be just one software update away from doing so.

Fitbit will have to have some serious value-add to stave off competitors, I
think. Maybe I'm wrong, probably am. But I won't be buying their stock.

[0] [http://pogue.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/14/the-tragic-
death-o...](http://pogue.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/14/the-tragic-death-of-the-
flip/?_r=0)

~~~
krschultz
FitBit has a brand. You can't build that in a weekend.

In fact, you don't need to build one at all. AliBaba returns over 14k results
for "fitness tracker", and I imagine many of them are exact FitBit clones.

However, consumer product businesses are about way more than just the product
itself. Marketing matters. Distribution matters. Apple bought Beats not
because they couldn't create headphones, but because they wanted the brand.
FitBit is Beats for "3-axis accelerometers with some firmware and software
that you wear around your wrist".

~~~
encoderer
A separate fitness tracker is the PDA-and-flip-phone combo of 2015. Once there
are popular and mainstream wearable computers, I have no need for a separate
fitness tracker. And that will happen as surely as things will continue to get
smaller.

~~~
clarky07
It already exists. Apple watch does what fitbit does along with plenty of
other useful stuff. I can't imagine why anyone would use a fitbit instead,
other than perhaps cost. That's not a great thing to be your only way of
competing.

As it happens, while typing this comment, my watch let me know it was time to
stand up and move around :-P

~~~
commandar
> I can't imagine why anyone would use a fitbit instead, other than perhaps
> cost.

Battery life. Apple Watch will improve over time, but it's nowhere near
_there_ yet when it can't be worn overnight.

~~~
clarky07
For the sleep tracking component, or just in general?

Personally I have no problems charging my watch daily, just like my phone. But
it does present an issue if you want to wear it while sleeping. I've never
wanted to wear a watch sleeping though...

As a complete side note, i've been impressed by the battery life. I haven't
gone below 50% in a day yet, and I have so little concern that I will I took
battery percentage off of my watch face.

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eroo
Devices in millions [2011,2014]: 0.2, 1.3, 4.5, 10.9

Revenue in millions [2011,2014[: 14.5, 76.4, 271.1, 745.4

Paid active users in millions [2011,2014]: NULL, 0.6, 2.6, 6.7

I realize they sell more than just pedometers, but their core product is a
3-axis accelerometer that calculates a dubious step count w/o really
actionable insights. Imagine what this can be once there start to be useful
applications/more of the data.

~~~
hbhakhra
Believe me, I thought the FitBit was a stupid device when I heard about it,
but then I got one for free from work. Having it on your wrist all day and
tracking all your activity really did make a difference for me and for my
friends that have it - to the point where I convinced friends to get the
FitBit.

The effectiveness of the FitBit, just by my anecdote, is that it tracks all
your steps, even for little things such as walking to the bathroom, and shows
you your total activity. Second, is when at the end of the day your are close
to your target, its easy to convince yourself to go for a little walk to reach
the target. Without tracking, you wouldn't have done that extra walk at night.

I do agree with sentiments of others that the lock-in of data is pretty
annoying, but the device and app work great for what they do.

~~~
MBCook
> Second, is when at the end of the day your are close to your target, its
> easy to convince yourself to go for a little walk to reach the target.

Having an external locus of control can make a huge difference for some people
when it comes to exercising more or eating better. It helped for me.

> ...but the device and app work great for what they do.

That was NOT my experience with the app. I think it's pathetic they decided to
try to be their own ecosystem instead of being part of HealthKit, but that's
not their big sin.

In the two or so years I used a Fitbit the app only got worse. Food logging
was repeatedly changed, losing features, and getting harder and harder to use.
They later changed exercise entry to make it work better for runners and
harder for everything else. They took FOREVER to update from iOS 6 style
interfaces to iOS 7.

But the big thing, the KILLER thing, was that all my data was corrupted by a
bug they knew about and refused to fix. There was an option to adjust your
daily calorie goals based on activity (or something like that). Having that on
used to be the default, but it caused all sorts of problems. I only found that
out after noticing tons of my old data had almost exactly the same calorie
count each day. Like within 10 calories.

After numerous support emails (their support system was terrible) I was
finally told to turn that option off. They _knew_ it caused issues, that's why
they started turning it off by default. But they didn't tell people who had it
on about the issues it caused or detect if they were hitting the bug. They
fixed it for new users and left older users screwed.

So I have 2+ years of useless fitness data in FitBit. It doesn't matter if it
can be exported for free or put in HealthKit, the data is junk.

I don't remember having a single positive interaction with FitBit over support
or other problems. They were at best neutral. My opinion of them went lower
and lower and lower over time.

~~~
click170
To be fair, they make it nearly impossible to get your data out of their
servers to do anything interesting with anyway. Which is another huge failing
on their part IMO.

~~~
mkopinsky
They have a resilient, stable API. We use it for a number of clinical trials
evaluating incentives for walking, and it works fairly well. Better than most
of their competitors.

------
walterobm
Reading the "Risk Factors" in the From S-1 always proves to be educational.
Thanks to the SEC the disclosures tend to be very candid (if not partially
shrouded by legalese) and a good indicator of the structural weaknesses of a
company.

For FitBit the lack of subscription revenue (1% of total), the litigation
following product recalls, and the uncertainty from complying with FDA
regulations seem particularly noteworthy.

~~~
misteredison12
The problem is competition. FitBit's only hope, in my opinion, is to create an
Android-based/compatible multifunction device that becomes the competitor to
the Apple Watch.

~~~
jkestner
On the other hand, they present a cross-platform alternative. I bought
Fitbit's scale because it had a Windows Phone app, something that Apple or
Samsung won't give me.

~~~
misteredison12
I just don't think a pedometer gets the job done. I think the winners in this
space will be much broader, multifunction devices. Something like I expect to
see out of Apple Watch 3.0.

~~~
jkestner
An interesting comparison is Misfit. They sell pedometers but also offer a
free app for Pebble and Apple Watch. How do they intend to make money? Selling
Shine to people who are interested in the jewelry aspect? Getting people into
their ecosystem and selling them the bed sensor or other future specialized
sensors?

~~~
BinaryIdiot
I've been really curious about the Misfit business model. It's neat that they
offer their software on two watches now but it's free. You only pay for
devices and last I looked they didn't have any services.

Does anyone have any insights there since I'm curious?

~~~
jkestner
Partial answer: [http://www.wareable.com/fitness-trackers/health-insurer-
pay-...](http://www.wareable.com/fitness-trackers/health-insurer-pay-you-to-
get-fit-with-misfit-flash-563)

~~~
BinaryIdiot
Ohh that makes good sense. I wonder what the money looks like versus other
models like what Jawbone and Fitbit use. Thanks for the insight.

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Sirey4
Reading through the comment thus far, I'm seeing a lot of negative sentiment
towards the product. In the end, the demographic of the type of people on
Hacker News is still vastly different from the majority.

I don't think it matters that refusing to integrate with Healthkit or
rejecting data through their API matters. Check out the App Store. The Fitbit
app is usually in the top 100 apps, let alone tops in the health category.

Some of you are bringing up the Apple Watch or products from Garmin and such,
but again these are completely different. I recently got a Charge HR myself
from fitbit and the requirements for me were some base functionality,
acceptable battery life, and above all size and lightness. I've had the Charge
HR for about 3 months and I hardly notice it except when I'm in competition
with friends on the Fitbit app. I've had more than just a handful of friends
also getting Fitbits because of the ecosystem.

I'm a believer, and barring a ridiculous price after the IPO, I'll likely be
an investor.

------
djloche
2014 was an incredible year for them revenue/profit wise, and the first 3
months are already showing impressive growth.

2013 - 271M revenue, 51M loss.

2014 - 745M revenue, 131M profit.

Q1 2014 - 108M revenue, 8M profit.

Q1 2015 - 336M revenue, 47M profit.

These are fantastic numbers - I don't blame them deciding to go public now.

~~~
misteredison12
The only way an IPO makes sense is if they're going to raise money to compete
with the Apple Watch or to move into a completely different product category.

~~~
Narkov
...or to get out.

------
RossP
I like the Fitbit hardware (I use a Surge and love running with it) and their
software is decent, but their customer service is atrocious.

I found a bug triggered by hitting the "Pause" button during a run.
Effectively the device paused on the display, but the underlying data they use
to build maps, calculate pace, etc keeps calculating. So if you run for 10
minutes, pause for 10 when you unexpectedly meet a friend, then run for 10
minutes all of your stats are based on a 30-minute run which isn't what most
runners are interested in.

I documented this in excruciating detail (including showing errors in their
.TCX file exports) and sent it off to their helpdesk.

First response: "That is a carrier issue, but don't worry we are still
counting your steps.". There was no acknowledgement of the content I'd sent or
the attachments I'd included.

Second response: Insisted it was a carrier or GPS issue, and not a software
bug.

Third response: They asked me to call their 800-number. After I declined due
to being in Australia, they replied and insisted that the call would be free,
because it's to an 800-number.

Fourth response: THey are "Blessed" I contacted them. No acknowledgement of
understanding of my issue.

It seems clear that their customer service team are not familiar with day to
day use cases of their products, particularly the high-end running watch. The
free phone call stuff is amusing but hints at a team that aren't aware of who
their customers are.

Again, I like my Surge watch and their software is pretty good. Integration to
Strava is great. But there's a pretty good chance they'll be overtaken by a
future Apple watch with GPS in it.

[Edited to be less snarky]

~~~
brlewis
Can you get in touch with me personally? I'd like to escalate your case. At
fitbit.com I'm blewis.

~~~
RossP
Thank you for responding, I've sent through some details about my case.

------
visarga
Are they still here? My FitBit is almost useless for me. It rots in a drawer.
When I bought it I had trouble using it with my Samsung S4 - unsupported phone
because Bluetooth something yada yada. Maybe they evolved since.

Their website was ugly and hard to use. Their apps too, and they banned
specific phone models and countries from installing the app. Very vexing to be
left out on purpose, after buying the damned thing.

Sleep tracking? I had to TELL it when I went to sleep and woke up (the magical
five-times-tapping). So, basically, it's the same thing I could do with a
notepad and a pen on the nightstand.

I use my phone to track my calories since.

~~~
dokuda
> it's the same thing I could do with a notepad and a pen on the nightstand.

I think you might have misunderstood the sleep tracking feature. It also
tracks when you're awake or restless while you're sleeping so you can
understand if you slept well or not.

Last time I checked, my notepad and pen didn't do that.

~~~
visarga
True, about tracking agitation during sleep.

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wrd
When it comes down to it the wearable fitness tracker market has essentially
no barrier to entry.

Can someone else make a similar device? Yes. Is there any reason someone _has_
to use FitBit? No. Can someone else operate more efficiently? Probably. Does
another company out there in the same space have better customer loyalty than
FitBit? For sure.

This all spells major trouble for FitBit. Apple could easily achieve a much
better economy of scale than FitBit and in the long run win a war of
attrition. Even if Apple doesn't succeed in this space, the fact that the
barriers to entry are low suggests that FitBit will never be wildly
profitable. Any competitive advantage it currently has will not last.

------
sremani
Between Apple Watch from lifestyle perspective and Microsoft Band from fitness
functional perspective, FitBit is being squeezed. They can still be
profitable, but if Microsoft continues to refine and hone Band, FitBit is in
serious trouble.

~~~
ben1040
I'm really curious what the second or third iteration of the MS Band looks
like.

I tried one on and the whole hw/software combination right now seems like a
public beta. But it's showing they've got some really good ideas.

What I'd really like is a stress management feature from one of these sensor
bands that can glean more info from my daily life. It seems like a perfect fit
for MS to look at my Outlook calendar for the day and my heart rate and then
point out to me a meeting that may have gotten heated.

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ucha
With revenue tripling every year and projected net income around or over 200M
this year, I wouldn't be surprised if Fitbit was valued at a P/E over 50. They
would be worth $10+ B which is a huge surprise to say the least.

~~~
visarga
They put a product out a little before the curve, but now all cell phones can
run accelerometer logs in background and there are more prestigious and
advanced smart watches.

Maybe if they played nice and opened their API / allowed devs to play with the
damn thing, they could compete more with Apple, which does the same for its
products.

------
vtail
I used to be a Fitbit fan, but now I switched to Garmin Vivofit (and later
Vivofit 2) and never looked back. My data is open, I have a battery that lasts
a year+(!), a watch and an HR monitor (with a strap) in one device.

~~~
DenisM
That's two devices, not one - a watch, and a strap.

~~~
vtail
Yes, but everything other than HRM is available in the vivid it itself.

------
cdcarter
Many of the comments on this thread have been about their Surge product and
comparisons to the Apple Watch. Though the Surge is their "flagship", in
reality I see the One and Zip a LOT more. For people who aren't interested in
a smart-watch or wearable (and believe me, there are many people who don't
believe in the value of one yet) the Fitbit One fills a great market between a
high end fitness tracker, and a cheap free pedometer that you got from work.

------
source99
Can someone explain the purpose of step counting?

From all the academic research I have seen regarding nutrition and exercise
getting a few thousand extra steps will have no meaningful affect on your
weight and health.

Is the pedometer really just a psychological trick to get people thinking
about their weight and health more often which leads to people actually eating
less?

~~~
ejain
It is a "psychological trick", especially when combined with other incentives
like badges, leaderboards or rewards.

Keep in mind that many people struggle to get even a few thousand steps.
Beyond that, it's a great status symbol, or at least it was, until the Apple
Watch came out :-)

Also, the data can be interesting, both for researchers, and for yourself--if
you're the kind of person who wonders e.g. if getting a lot of steps late in
the evening rather than in the morning affects your sleep...

------
swagmeister
Fitbit is now the underdog. I'm excited to see where this ends up now that the
market is willing to give them cash to fight Apple, Google, and Microsoft

------
fotbr
Having (very briefly) owned a fitbit flex (I think -- it's the one that got
recalled for giving people a rash), does anyone know of a similar device with
fairly high time resolution, that does NOT require an account, subscription,
or connection to a website/service to work? Specifically, something you can
pull the data directly off the device in some usable form? OS requirement for
the device connection is irrelevant, I've got the common ones (ios, osx,
android, windows, linux) covered.

------
pinaceae
FitBit is to Apple Watch/Android Wear as TomTom/Garmin is to Smartphones with
GPS.

They're fucked, erm, 'disrupted'.

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jeremiahlee
To all the commenters using intraCapitalization: it's "Fitbit" not "FitBit".

------
_nullandnull_
I'll buy their stock. I have bought four Fitbits for my family and they all
love them.

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ejain
So they want to raise $100M, but the more interesting question is at what
valuation?

