
Electric Cars Soon Will Cost Less Than Gas Cars, Research Suggests - jseliger
http://www.industryweek.com/energy/electric-cars-soon-will-cost-less-gasoline-autos-research-shows
======
11thEarlOfMar
The premise turns on the batteries: They are still expensive and need
replacing every 7-10 years. If you're modeling the cost of ownership, you
should be factoring in a new battery pack after 10 years. (Message to ye who
covet 1,000,000 miles) Therefore, the rate of adoption will be somewhat
modulated by the ecosystem of lithium ion materials and production. It's
obvious Tesla sees this as a crux since they are investing billions in battery
production.

Li ion Battery cost per KWh has already been falling at about -14% annualized
over the last 10 years [0]. However, mass adoption of EV autos changes the
demand side considerably and we therefore cannot assume the same rate of
decline as we have seen recently. Perhaps we will, given the ramping
production, but if they don't move more or less in step, prices could be
somewhat stubborn.

[0] [https://cleantechnica.com/2015/03/26/ev-battery-costs-
alread...](https://cleantechnica.com/2015/03/26/ev-battery-costs-already-
probably-cheaper-than-2020-projections/)

~~~
jdietrich
Most internal combustion engines are only good for ~200,000 miles, even with
excellent maintenance. A worn-out engine is good only for scrap, but an EV
battery pack with 50% capacity is still very useful as a solar storage
battery.

Most of the 2011 Nissan Leafs are still going strong with ~80% capacity. Their
outright failure rate is less than 0.02%. Cell and battery pack technology has
improved dramatically since then, so I'd be very optimistic about the useful
lifespan of a brand new Model S or Chevy Bolt.

~~~
irrational
Well crap. Both of my cars have well north of 200,000 on them. I was really
hoping to keep driving them for a long time to come.

~~~
madengr
I had 250k on an +20 year old Toyota pickup, though things slowly start to
crap. Leaky carb diaphragms due to ethanol, harmonic balancer wearing out,
corroded brakes lines, bad clutch cylinder, dead ignition module. Donated that
after buying a new Toyota pickup. Had that for 12 years now with zero
problems.

Purchased a used 2015 Nissan Leaf recently and very happy with that. We'll see
how the battery holds up.

I think many will ditch their cars not due to engine wear, but for stupid
reasons like their smartphone not linking to the stereo.

~~~
wapz
I think a much better reason that people ditch their cars is the increased
safety in the newer models. Very few cars had side air bags and a decent
amount didn't have ABS 15 years ago. There are a lot of other improvements
surely made that I don't know about.

In Japan everyone junks their cars in 10 years because of the mandatory car
check-ups (we pay $400-$2000 every 2 years for the check-up then have to pay
every year once the car hits 10 years old). There are some exceptions and I
don't know all the rules as I just own one car.

------
eltoozero
I couldn't buy a Telsa for the total spent for my '03 Camry, currently pushing
380K miles, including fuel costs.

In the 12 years I've had it I've put on 350,000 miles. Even at a conservative
25 mpg and a generous average fuel cost of $3 that's:

$15,000 in car. $42,000 in gas.

This excludes maintenance etc, but I fail to see how I'm saving money buying
an electric car unless I'm already rocking solar.

Maybe it's cheaper by the mile but my assumption is any fuel savings will be
quickly erased in additional insurance costs.

~~~
mandude
It sounds like you bought it used? While I'm unsure of a Tesla's longevity, it
looks like you could buy a used Tesla for $35k these days. Which is cheaper
than your $15k + $42k. No gas -- but I'm not sure how much it would cost per
kilowatt hour. Now if you were to get a Tesla $35k and install a solar roof
for $10k then you're looking at $45k and a renewable energy system, taking
power out of the oil companies' hands and actually cheaper than the $57k...
and that would be "free" power indefinitely -- way cheaper than the fact that
you will have to continue to put oil and gas in your car.

Speaking of which, did you factor in the oil change costs? Assuming $30 an oil
change, you're looking at $12k in oil changes. That's now $69k for your Camry.

Plus, the Tesla looks cooler and has faster acceleration than your Camry.

~~~
dangrossman
> Assuming $30 an oil change, you're looking at $12k in oil changes

If you change the oil every 5000 miles as suggested by Toyota, 350K miles is
70 oil changes, or $2100 not $12000.

~~~
cr0sh
You could go longer if you did periodic oil analysis plus put on a new filter
(and top up the remainder) between changes. Could probably double the figure
to 10k, depending on engine age.

------
r00fus
While this seems drastically unrealistic from the viewpoint of someone in the
US, from a European point of view, I can totally see that electrics become
very viable - take a look at the new cars from Citroen, Renault and Hyundai in
terms of decent to serious range (200-300km+) and Europe seems more likely to
push regulations than a Trump-administration US.

~~~
KirinDave
I have an electric car in the US and a 60+mi/day commute. My new electric car
is so so so much cheaper to operate. It's actually below half the cost of
using my older but still quite efficient Prius.

It'll still take time for me to see savings over a car in the $20-$30k range.
But in terms of daily operating costs for equivalent priced cars I'm there.
Gas prices can only go up and electrical storage is on a downward trend.

~~~
Aloha
You must own a home?

I live in a place that prides itself on being 'green' \- but at-home charging
stations for apartment dwellers are just a not-thing.

~~~
KirinDave
I rent a home right now (and I've rented a half house before). So yeah, that's
a challenge.

The other option (and I do this a lot) is to just go to whole foods and use
their monster-fast chargers. You can do a whole car in just a few hours with
an L3 charger, it's amazing. This is more expensive than using any kind of
outlet, but so is gas.

Please forgive the imposition, but if you live in the dense and expensive part
of the city, you probably are best off simply not owning a car.

~~~
walshemj
And you can fill a fuel tank with gas in 10 mins. Really wide spread adoption
of electric vehicles will require a Nobel prize winning jump in battery tech.

And governments will tax electric cars to make up for the loss of fuel duty.

~~~
mythrwy
10 minutes? 3 minutes.

I think widespread electric vehicle adaption will happen due to price but you
have a very valid point on recharge time.

Basically your car is unusable if low and being recharged and there is nothing
you can do about it. Unless swapping heavy batteries becomes practical.

~~~
jogjayr
If chargers become widely available then this is only a consideration for long
road trips. Otherwise your car can be charging at practically any time it's
not being driven. Meaning it stays near full battery most of the time you
start driving. That's not true for gas; you don't have a gas line connected to
your tank in every parking lot.

Teslas have a driving range of ~200 miles or something like that right? After
driving 200 miles, most people are happy to stop and stretch their legs for
15-20 minutes. Tesla superchargers take about 30 minutes to charge your
battery most of the way. Drive another 200 miles and you're ready for lunch or
dinner, which could be a ~1 hour break, if you're not getting drive-thru and a
chance for a much longer charge.

The only limiting factors I see are cost, the availability of charging options
(and density of locations) and charging for apartment dwellers. Charge times
are probably "good enough" already and likely to get better.

------
clock_tower
This wouldn't surprise me, although manufacturing lithium batteries is still a
bit complex. The railroads already use all-electric drivetrains; short-range
locomotives carry batteries only, while long-haul ones use diesel to generate
electricity and power the drivetrain. The big advantage of an electric
drivetrain is regenerative braking, which is just as useful in cars (think of
the Prius and its remarkable mileage) as in trains.

Over the medium term, I'd expect to see a car market that looks a bit like the
train market: all-electric cars for city driving, plus hybrids for traveling
in the country or in underdeveloped areas. Fossil fuels will probably never go
away entirely (certainly the military will always need them), but oil is good
for things other than fuel; 100 years from now, I expect electric cars will be
the usual option while gasoline-burning hybrids are an expensive curiosity.

(Or we might move to a mix of electricity and hydrogen fuel cells; Toyota's
betting on this, since natural-gas refining releases waste hydrogen. Safe
containment of hydrogen is harder than safe containment of gasoline,
though...)

~~~
monk_e_boy
We still have the occasional steam powered traction engine go past our house.
We live on a very steep hill, so there is a lot of stoking to get up pressure
before they attempt it. I'd say we see them 2 or 3 times a year. Really cool
beasts.

~~~
NegativeLatency
I'd love to see a video of that

~~~
monk_e_boy
I never thought to video them. There are rallies every year in our local town
where 20 or so get together and drive around.

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gbs5BfpbAH4](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gbs5BfpbAH4)

My father-in-law is a conductor on a local steam engine. My SO got to drive it
-- the lucky lady :)

~~~
monk_e_boy
[http://prestonservices.co.uk/category/steam-engines/road-
ste...](http://prestonservices.co.uk/category/steam-engines/road-
steam/traction-engines/road-locomotives/)

------
jepler
.. in part due to assuming that the price of the internal combustion engine is
"going to go up as a result of more stringent regulations especially regarding
to particulate regulations", but also assuming that the battery (A) accounts
for 50% of the sticker price today and (B) will drop by 77% by 2025. I
wouldn't bet on these being the case (particularly on there being effective
regulation in the US)

~~~
epistasis
All the evidence points to batteries dropping a huge amount in the coming
decade. What are you willing to bet?

Edit: somewhat minor, but you seem to be misquoting, they actually say:

>their prices will fall by about 77% between 2016 and 2030, the London-based
researcher said.

Wich is a 14 year time span, instead of the 8 year time span from now until
2025

~~~
Hasz
Even with mass production, the chemistry does not change. Limited Co supplies
and a decreasing, but still present need for rare earths will only prop up
prices.

Add to that new and exotic electrolytes and improved anode coatings, and it'll
be a wonder if prices come down at all.

~~~
maxerickson
The existing battery packs have (vaguely) reasonable performance
characteristics, I wouldn't think that manufacturers would adopt things that
increase costs more than they increase performance.

(In fact I would expect them to mostly adopt things that cut costs without
sacrificing performance)

------
theprop
1\. Gigantic longevity. Electric Vehicles will likely run 1 million miles or
more without requiring any significant repairs except a net battery pack.
Internal combustion engines develop all kinds of problems related to burning
petroleum for energy.

2\. No gas charges. For the $35k Tesla, if you get an invite from a current
Tesla owner, you can get $1k off and a free lifetime supercharger usage.
Supposing you always use a super-charger and had no gas charges, on 200k miles
you just saved $25k in gas charges...so your Tesla's net cost came in under
$10k!! And it's probably still got a long life ahead of it so would have far
more resale value than an internal combustion vehicle with similar mileage.

So it makes a lot of sense for everyone really to buy a Tesla :-D!

That said if electric vehicles do last far longer than traditional vehicles
you could reduce car sales by as much as 75%+...if you add in another trend of
transportation-as-a-service via on-demand vehicles (e.g. Uber), that could
reduce car sales by a similar amount.

Both combined could decimate the current car industry as we know it which has
a lot of impacts on inputs e.g. mining for metals, etc. which go into car
manufacturing. It does make the world a lot more efficient. If you look around
the US, all you see are parking lots and cars everywhere sitting around (for
like 97% of their life).

~~~
dangrossman
1\. Lots of things on cars wear out over the years other than the
engine/emission system. Some of the most expensive common car repairs are
water pumps, AC compressors, brake lines, suspension parts, wheel bearings and
brake parts, etc. EVs have all of those things, and they suffer no less wear-
and-tear than ICEs. Even a full transmission or engine costs far less than
replacing the battery in an EV, too.

2\. The referral program is only for the Model S and Model X, which start at
$70K. There is no discount and no free charging with the $35K Model 3.

~~~
outworlder
> EVs have all of those things, and they suffer no less wear-and-tear than
> ICEs.

Brakes suffer less wear and tear.

Water pumps may be present, but they are not for the engine. If present, they
are usually for an actively cooled battery. They are needed mostly for
charging operations and do not run all the time. Meaning less wear and tear on
them. They are also electrically operated, so there's no belt wear and tear.

Batteries very seldom suffer catastrophic failures, as opposed to, say, a
transmission.

EVs can be much simpler than ICEs. Currently some of them are not, but they
can be. The list of things that EVs do not have is even larger than the things
they do have in common with ICEs.

Anyway, I will concede the point as being generally true – there are lots of
other things that may break and are shared no matter how you power the car.

However, there's something that's harder to measure: everyday annoyances
caused by parts that are "working", but not as well as they should. Engines
with low compression, faulty spark plugs, or partially broken sensors feeding
incorrect data to the engine's control unit. Things like that make the car
feel "old", cause multiple annoying trips to repair shops, and lead people to
replace their cars. Modern AC motors will run much longer, and just as well as
when they were brand new. They are certain to outlast the battery that feeds
them.

~~~
dangrossman
I have a Nissan Leaf, which I think is the best-selling EV outside China. It
actually doesn't have an actively cooled battery, but like every other EV I'm
aware of, it has a water pump and coolant. The pump and fan can be pretty loud
actually, especially while charging.

It also has all those same problems you described. Noise from the suspension
that can't quite be pinpointed. Partially broken sensors feeding incorrect
data to the ECU (usually means the 12V battery voltage is low). Failing to
turn on then working just fine minutes later. Throwing error messages about
brakes, or "t/m malfunction", or going into "turtle mode" when the battery
isn't low, or other inscrutable conditions that usually solve themselves but
lead to multiple annoying trips to repair shops.

Don't you drive a Leaf too?

~~~
205guy
I have read forums and talked with many Leaf owners in researching my own
purchase, and while there have been a few niggles reported (random charging
problems, or noises, or ...), none have listed problems like this, and not all
in a single car. I suppose it is possible you got one car with that many
problems (or one undiagnosed issue causing many problems), but then you should
be returning the car as a lemon or taking the dealer/Nissan to court. For
example, going into turtle mode when the battery isn't low would be
inexcusable and cause for a complete fix under warranty.

But you can read the leaf forums as well as I, you know this is way out of the
norms, so why do you write like it's expected of every Leaf? I conclude this
is FUD.

~~~
dangrossman
I come across reports of similar problems all the time.

[https://www.reddit.com/r/leaf/comments/6eydi6/my_leaf_is_goi...](https://www.reddit.com/r/leaf/comments/6eydi6/my_leaf_is_going_into_turtle_mode_again_seems/)

[https://www.reddit.com/r/leaf/comments/67xw7l/help_needed_mo...](https://www.reddit.com/r/leaf/comments/67xw7l/help_needed_motor_power_is_limited_with_full/)

[https://www.reddit.com/r/leaf/comments/62h18v/tm_system_malf...](https://www.reddit.com/r/leaf/comments/62h18v/tm_system_malfunction_something_under_the_hood_is/)

[https://www.reddit.com/r/leaf/comments/5boton/tm_vehicle_sys...](https://www.reddit.com/r/leaf/comments/5boton/tm_vehicle_system_malfunction_warning_leaf_wont/)

[https://www.reddit.com/r/leaf/comments/41jmzu/i_got_the_turt...](https://www.reddit.com/r/leaf/comments/41jmzu/i_got_the_turtle_when_i_had_50_battery/)

[https://www.reddit.com/r/leaf/comments/4rooyw/ev_system_warn...](https://www.reddit.com/r/leaf/comments/4rooyw/ev_system_warning_light_coming_on_clears_each/)

 _Tons_ more similar stories on MNL and other forums. These are common
problems.

------
pfooti
One thing I'm surprised about is the way Gogoro scooters are being rolled out
and sold. The model 2 has a retail price of below $2,000 and is pretty much
ideal as a city commute scooter. But they're not selling them for individual
use, only in cities where they have their battery exchange charger stations
set up.

So I have to wonder: what kind of loss-leader is the cheap gogoro 2 scooter?
Because I guarantee I would buy one (and a charging station that let me
trickle-charge one set of batteries while I ride around on the other) if they
were for sale. I have a 10 year old vespa that I love, but is starting to get
long enough in the tooth that I'm considering a replacement.

But they're not going to be sold in san francisco (or pretty much anywhere
else in the US unless you're really optimistic), because they want to have a
citywide network of single-use battery exchange stations.

By single-use, I mean: only good for this one product. With gasoline, you can
fuel anything, but they are basically angling for a whole-city distribution of
a single thing: battery packs just for a scooter. This strikes me as a pretty
bad model, which circles me back to the start. I wonder how much the scooter
actually costs, if they're willing to leave this much market on the table for
individual bike / charger sales.

I suppose it could also be NTSB certification holding them up too.

[https://www.gogoro.com/](https://www.gogoro.com/)

------
olivermarks
'electric cars aren’t going to take over' there seem to be endless articles on
line pro and con electric vehicles [http://www.businessinsider.com/why-morgan-
stanley-wrong-abou...](http://www.businessinsider.com/why-morgan-stanley-
wrong-about-electric-cars-2017-5)

~~~
mandude
For now. In 5-10 years the debate will be "why do we have gas cars at all now
that electric cars are all faster, drive farther, don't pollute, and are solar
powered."

In my opinion, not having to deal with oil spills and carbon emissions will
certainly win out in the long run.

~~~
elihu
Kind of a tangent regarding solar-powered cars:

Putting solar panels on a car is a good idea that sounds like a dumb idea that
sounds like a good idea.

Solar panels don't actually generate anywhere near enough power to supply a
car continuously. (1 horse power is about 700 watts. If it takes 10 HP to
maintain highway speeds, that's about 7000 watts, more than most rooftop solar
installations.) So, driving forever on a sunny day without stopping isn't
something that's attainable except on specially-built cars with tiny motors
and giant bodies and don't move at highway speed.

However, if I think about how I use my own car on a typical day, I drive a
couple miles to work, park in the sun for about 8 hours, and then drive a
couple miles home. Maybe stop on the way for groceries. If I had an electric
car with a solar panel generating a hundred watts or so while it sits in the
parking lot, that might be enough to keep the battery topped off.

I'd still have to plug in once in awhile if I drive around more than average
or if I'm going on a long trip, but if it noticeably reduces the number of
times I plug in per year, that's probably worth the added weight and cost.

(I realize that by "solar powered" you probably meant rooftop solar and
charging at home or perhaps utility-scale solar.)

(I also realize that I could just ride a bike, but I'm lazy and technological
cost-benefit analyses are more fun.)

~~~
epistasis
I'd be surprised if you could get a full kWh per day out of solar panels on a
car itself; they're at a non-ideal angle, can be parked in half sun half
shade, etc.

Most cars get really close to 3.3 mi/kWh. So unless your commute is really
short, it's not going to make a huge impact on the number of times you need to
plug in.

~~~
elihu
My commute is really short. I don't drive long distances very often, so I
think it would make a difference.

Another way to look at it is if I could get one extra kWh per day from solar
and can go 3.3 miles per kWh, that's about 100 extra miles of range per month.
I typically drive maybe 200 or 300 miles per month, so that's a pretty big
reduction in total plug-in power that I would need. (In our Oregon winters it
might not help so much, or if I can't reliably find sunny parking spots.)

------
Angostura
I'd love one. Unfortunately, I - and quite a few like me in large cities in
the UK only have on-street parking, so no way to charge at home.

Once some of the large supermarkets start offering charging in a large
proportion of their parking spaces, it'll get more interesting.

~~~
pi-rat
We're slowly but surely getting there in Norway. Most supermarkets offer free
charging, and fast chargers are being put up all over the mayor cities ( ex:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k73-rYe82lI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k73-rYe82lI)
). Some parking spaces have 100s of chargers:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktNKWLwjQJM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktNKWLwjQJM)

It's totally feasible to own an EV without home charging in Norway now,
especially if you get one of the longer range ones like Opel Ampera-e (/
Bolt).

------
grandalf
I've made this point before and people are always skeptical. Consider how many
fewer moving parts an electric car has. It's like the difference between solid
state electronics and vacuum tube electronics.

~~~
gens
Tangents:

Vacuum tubes can work a very long time without breaking, if they are never
turned off.

Wankel engines have less moving parts then piston engines and can last longer
because of it. Problem with Wankel engines is that they need heat and a good
seal to be efficient.

Stirling engines could, in theory, be superior to bout piston and Wankel
engines, in efficiency and lifespan. [0]

Fuel cells used to power electrical engines is yet another alternative that
combines the high energy density of liquid fuel with robustness of very few
moving parts.

[0]
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_Vnxapd5fs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_Vnxapd5fs)

------
rjdagost
This projection that electric cars will soon become cheaper than gas cars
assumes an exponential decay in cost. All exponential trends ultimately cease
due to some physical limiting factor. We're seeing Moore's law sputter to a
halt because it is getting more expensive (and not less) to make smaller
features on microprocessors- semiconductor manufacturing processes are just
not scaling the way they have for decades. Nevertheless Moore's law was a
truly exceptional exponential ramp unrivaled in the history of technology.
Does battery manufacturing have the same advantages that will allow for a
tremendous long-term exponential ramp analogous to Moore's law? I am wondering
how long it will take for battery technology to "hit the wall". Hopefully
batteries will become significantly cheaper, safer, and faster to charge but I
am skeptical that we will be able to ride this exponential curve for anywhere
near as long as we've benefited from Moore's law. I hope I am wrong.

~~~
madengr
Though I don't think it needs to drop exponentially. Take any of the new EV
(Leaf, Bolt, Model 3) that are $35k and drop the price by 2/3, keep the 200
mile range, and ICE car sales will die fast. ICE car prices are not dropping.
EV only need to drop below ICE, not a continuous Moore's law.

I bought a used 2015 Leaf recently for $8500. Yes, it's only 80 mile range,
but that gets me to work for two days without charging. It's nearly free to
drive; $0.02/mile energy costs, or nothing if I charge for free at local
charge stations.

~~~
WorldMaker
There's the flipside to consider too: ICE car prices are as low as they are
today because of huge efficiencies of scale in existing engine supply chains
and also a large inventory of used cars. Used car inventory is something that
will market align over time. Engine supply chain disruptions are hard to
predict, but can snowball quickly.

------
guscost
⃰Unfortunately, still only after factoring in regulations.

~~~
KirinDave
The dual of this for gas cars is, "Unfortunately, still holding gas prices at
their current lows and ignoring any supply issues."

~~~
guscost
At first I was just upset seeing another piece of speculative PR, I guess, so
I had to make a salty comment. Of course your example is true too.

------
appleiigs
> “On an upfront basis, these things will start to get cheaper and people will
> start to adopt them more as price parity gets closer,” said Colin
> McKerracher, analyst at the London-based researcher. “After that it gets
> even more compelling.”

"Research" needs to include repairs for accidents (even though I've never been
in an accident in my own cars). Because I'm OK with the upfront basis, but
definitely not OK with the after. I've seen many articles regarding rare parts
and long repair times with Tesla. I've put in $5K of repairs in past 2 years
for my aging gas car... about 10% of what I plan to spend on my next car, so
repairs are a big deal and even more so when (not if) I get into an accident.

------
olivermarks
...'will be cheaper to buy in the U.S. and Europe as soon as 2025'...is the
sub head. The article makes a number of assumptions to reach this conclusion

~~~
epistasis
How would one prognosticate about the future _without_ making assumptions?

~~~
gravypod
The parent is saying that these assumptions will be incorrect in other parts
of the world. If you limit the statement in the title to US/EU then it becomes
a more reasonable claim.

~~~
jasonlotito
That's literally what the article is claiming though. If you limit the
statement to just the title here, it's not an article, it's just a headline,
and headlines are not there to tell you the entire story.

~~~
gravypod
The title implies that the cars are actually getting cheaper, not that social
costs are being externalized into this market.

The suggestion to change the title is valid. It's not the cars that are
getting cheaper, it's the laws that are getting more expensive. That has
nothing to do with the efficiency of the production or operation of EVs. It
has everything to do with social policy surrounding the use of fossil fuels.

~~~
epistasis
>It's not the cars that are getting cheaper, it's the laws that are getting
more expensive

Not quite, it _is_ the case that electric cars are getting cheaper, and that
analysts expect them to continue getting cheaper. From the article:

>“One is EV technology cost reductions because there are more breakthroughs in
the cost of technology and more volume, so the cost of EVs will go down. ICE
going to go up as a result of more stringent regulations especially regarding
to particulate regulations.”

