

The Digital Home of 2013: 10 consumer technologies that will succeed, and five that will fail - ilamont
http://www.thestandard.com/news/2008/06/24/what-your-future-really-looks-digital-home-2013

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derefr
This is all just a reply to the fanciful first paragraph of this article (I
won't bother replying to the article itself; it's mostly correct, save for the
fact that, no matter how online our permanent storage is, we still need
caches.)

I shouldn't have to unlock my garage; it should identify my car by the same
way my car identifies my keys as soon as it gets within range, and open
automatically.

The TV should only turn on if "watching TV" is what's on my web-published
calendar for the rest of the night; otherwise, it's just a distraction that
might suck me in while I'm trying to do something else. If my calendar says
"create presentation," though, by all means fire up Keynote just in time for
it to be ready and waiting to receive my input.

My favorite songs can already follow me from my living room to my kitchen--I
have very loud speakers. I want them to follow me _from my car_. Either by a
pair of cooperating satellite radio devices, a pair of 4G devices streaming
from my online music library account, or more likely just an MP3 player that,
upon being unplugged, scans for wifi audio speakers to start streaming to
(with the possible optimization that if it finds the computer it syncs with,
it can just command it to start playing the track where it left off, then shut
itself off.)

The phone should have already told me what it needed to tell me when it was in
my pocket; however, now that I take my cell into my home, I should be able to
answer the line of my cellphone's number on my home phone lines (without an
additional plan, and perhaps cheaper because it doesn't have to connect to a
cell tower but can instead ride my coax). My phone's (both cell and land, and
perhaps work as well) e-mail inbox should be my computer's e-mail inbox. I
should be able to use my cellphone as an extra screen, speaker, and microphone
for any and all of my computers, both over Bluetooth and securely connected
remotely.

My computers themselves should be able to intelligently know where I am,
locking themselves when I'm not sitting at them, and unlocking when I sit down
(unless they detect someone on the blacklist is also in the room with me--then
I'll need to use a password.) They should wake up when they detect my voice
(even from a different room, depending on what is said), just as if I'd moved
the mouse or pressed a key.

I should be able to use my cellphone to send hand gestures to devices from
anywhere, as if it was a Wiimote.

And the fridge really should have messaged me about the milk _when I was in
the store;_ that's why I carry the GPS locator, after all. It's too late now.
Maybe it could message one of my friends who is planning to come over that
they could do me a favor and pick it up if they're close.

~~~
mechanical_fish
_I shouldn't have to unlock my garage; it should identify my car by the same
way my car identifies my keys as soon as it gets within range, and open
automatically._

Think about this for a few more minutes and you will figure out the failure
modes. Here's one for free: You can no longer drive past your house without
the door opening, at which point you will have to press a button to _close_
the door.

I guess you could have the door close itself when it senses that you've gone
out of range. But: what if you own two cars, and the other one is parked in
the driveway? Consumers are not going to want to have to solve a logic puzzle
to figure out if their garage door is going to be open or closed.

~~~
Chris8535
Right thats the point to some degree. The technology won't be mind reading
perfection, some effort on the part of the user will still be required.
Without an affirmative user interaction, devices won't do anything be a
ridiculous amount of pre-configured scripts which will become more cumbersome
to manage than helpful.

The article could have been about how in the future everyone will live in
floating bubbles which will wireless control everything in the world, but that
is simply extrapolating on the on a trend that humans will physically interact
less. This analysis takes into account what might actually happen on the
horizon and what technologies are likely to make that happen.

It would be nice if the fridge had told the guy before he got home though.

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khill
Am I the only person still paranoid about having my operating system and all
my data stored on the Internet?

I'm sure there will be advances in how we store data and run applications over
the next five years. However, I still can't imagine moving all the data and
applications currently stored on my private home network to the cloud. That
seems to be a huge leap of faith in both the reliability of my net connection
and the security measures of my chosen data caretaker(s).

~~~
kirse
Nope, you're not alone. The only way I'll ever do this is if I run my own
server and am fully responsible for _my_ information. That way any loss /
snoops are entirely my own fault.

As far as the O/S transitioning to the web in 5 years, it's simply not going
to happen, so I wouldn't worry about it =).

Oh, and desktop PCs are not on the way out, this "laptop taking over the
desktop" claim has been around for as long as I can remember. Desktops will
continue to get smaller and more efficient, but they'll never lose their price
to performance edge over laptops.

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Chris8535
I'm keen on physical media failing, personally I thought bluray/HDDVD was a
step in the wrong direction. Stream good 720p content with digital audio and
I'll be happy.

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iloveyouocean
What your future really looks like -- reality edition:

After the dollar collapses, the major effects of Peak Oil kick in, the Oceans
die, the eternal War intensifies, global food shortages cause . . .

. . . you will enjoy streaming telepresence in every nook and cranny of your
techno-dreamhouse, and some of these electronic gizmos just might be SOLAR-
powered!

If our future actually looks like the one described in the article, it is only
at the expense of the planet and most of the other people on it. We need more
compassion, conservation, and mindfulness. Not more of other techie-crap.

