
Bitcoin breaks $200 - conductr
https://coinbase.com/charts
======
csomar
If anything to like about Bitcoin is that it has proved that almost everyone
else is wrong.

* SilkRoad shutting down? Bitcoin is doomed.

* Mt.gox is not paying in time or at all? Bitcoin doesn't work.

* Asics? There will be a flood of new coins.

And yet Bitcoin value continue to raise. If history repeats itself, we should
see 1 Bitcoin levels at around $2,000.

I think Bitcoin is an interesting phenomena to watch. Being too solid for the
quakes that it got, means it's going to stay for a longer period.

I'll be just watching, meanwhile.

~~~
ap22213
It's not surprising that it's rising in value. People are holding on to ~12M
coins (worth approx. $2.4B) and are hyping it up so that more people buy them.

The more people that buy them, the more the price will go up, the more that
they'll be worth, the more that people will buy them....

~~~
mrb
Ah, the old and false "holding" argument.

2 million coins have changed hands in the last 30 days:
[http://bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=30d](http://bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=30d)
And that is just on these exchanges, not even counting other places of
exchanges (coinbase which is probably the 2nd largest coins seller in the US),
or purchases (Bitpay signed up 10 thousand vendors!), etc.

If this rate is kept, the entire existent volume of bitcoins, a bit less than
12 million, would change hands in the next 6 months.

It doesn't matter if it is 1 coin changing hands 12 million times, or 12
million coins changing hands one time each. Volume is volume. And it proves
that not that many coins are being hoarded.

~~~
jaggederest
> It doesn't matter if it is 1 coin changing hands 12 million times, or 12
> million coins changing hands one time each. Volume is volume.

Correct

> And it proves that not that many coins are being hoarded.

False. There's nothing in what you said to give any logical or empirical
evidence that coins aren't being hoarded.

You'd be better off making the argument that it doesn't _matter_ that they're
being hoarded because the market is still liquid.

~~~
mrb
Strictly speaking, you are right. It is theoretically possible that 11,999,999
coins are hoarded, and only 1 coins is being exchanged many time.

I should have said simply that because the market is very liquid, it does not
seem to suffer from hoarding and/or hoarding does not matter.

~~~
XorNot
What you haven't shown is that the market is liquid when it comes to cashing
out. Not too long ago someone dumped a bunch of coins at once and the market
cratered in a matter of hours.

That's the only statistic that matters: how much USD-equivalent is being
injected into/out of system. That tells you whether they're being hoarded.

~~~
mrb
_" What you haven't shown is that the market is liquid when it comes to
cashing out"_.

I showed it. When 2 million coins are changing hands per month, it means 2
millions coins are _sold_ /"cashed out" (and 2 millions bought).

 _" That's the only statistic that matters: how much USD-equivalent is being
injected into/out of system. That tells you whether they're being hoarded."_

No. If the rate of transactions per user remains constant, and if the user
base grows, you would see exactly that: more USD being injected in the system,
than being taken out of it. This would not mean there is hoarding, but simply
that the economy is growing (which is exactly what is happening). Again when
you see a single Bitcoin payment processor like Bitpay reaching the "10
thousand vendors signed up" milestone, it is hard to reject the claim that the
Bitcoin economy is growing...

------
nazgulnarsil
Who wants to talk about china? Over the last few days the volume of
transactions on btcchina has doubled. Gov run chinese media outlets have been
surprisingly positive about btc. What is going on? One of the potential uses
of btc is capital flight, and that is something that china has been incredibly
strict about with their capital controls. Why aren't they clamping down?

edit: some commentary from someone in china familiar with the baidu subsidiary
announcement:
[https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=315380.0](https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=315380.0)

~~~
qoo
The Chinese will do anything to destabilize USD

~~~
ryanhuff
Ridiculous. Why would the Chinese want to destabilize their biggest debtor?

~~~
tsotha
Agreed. China is flush with dollar-denominated assets. Besides, if the dollar
weakens it will make Chinese goods more expensive in the US and cause labor
unrest in China.

------
Datsundere
I tried to buy bitcoins when they were $60. I look for sites that would sell
me bitcoins for USD. It was so hard and the ways to buy them were so damn
complicated. I had to sign up for a 3rd party site to import bitcoin to mtgox.
The 3rd party site needed me to upload my personal identity information to
verify my bank account. I was ready to do that as well, except they said it'd
take 10+ days to verify. Also someone explain to me how that is anonymous when
they have all my information if I had uploaded my driver's license and my bank
account information.

I got frustrated and just stopped looking to buy bitcoins. I was aware of irc
channels too but I just don't trust them. And then there was money gram, what
the actual fuck, the fees were so high. I could buy them, if I send my money
to an account in a foreign bank in japan. Such bullshit. And this fluctuating
price isn't very impressive either.

~~~
mrb
Sell something on craigslist for bitcoins, and let the buyer pay you in
bitcoins in person. Couldn't be simpler.

~~~
mrb
Why was I voted down? My suggestion is an often overlooked, very simple way to
acquire bitcoins. No signing up. No proving your identity. No linking bank
accounts. Just sell stuff for bitcoins.

------
Permit
Can't wait to see all the amateur investors wishing for an opportunity to
short Bitcoin like we saw in Jan/February when it hit $60.00.

[https://www.hnsearch.com/search#request/all&q=%22short+bitco...](https://www.hnsearch.com/search#request/all&q=%22short+bitcoin%22&start=0)

~~~
dwaltrip
Silly hyped up bitcoiners. Let's totally short this virtual imaginary currency
thing. I mean, just look at the graph! What goes up always comes down!

 _until it doesn 't_

Value is entirely subjective, all money is imaginary and built on a trust. For
bitcoin, this means trust that the network is healthy, the protocol works, the
transaction system is effective and has advantages to competing systems, and
that others understand and share these thoughts. However, bitcoin also reduces
the trust required in several areas (this is one of its advantages):
chargebacks, control of your account (it is immensely difficult for third
parties to seize bitcoins), and stability of the monetary policy (systemic
incentives were designed to strongly resist manipulation of the algorithm, and
seem to be working well so far).

Edit: This isn't to say bitcoin will go to the moon. It could very well fail
for a number of reasons. However, it is also something that deserves careful
consideration. It has shown surprising resilience. People are working hard at
building augmenting systems. It is programmable money. The potential
applications are hard to fully fathom.

------
jnbiche
The fact that the Gox gap is closing makes me suspect that a lot of this rise
is coming from new money. I'm guessing few new Bitcoin purchasers are buying
through Mt. Gox, which is driving the price up on other exchanges, and closing
the gap due to Gox's illiquidity.

~~~
mrb
Top 3 exchanges over the last 30 days:
[http://bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=30d](http://bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=30d)

    
    
      39% mtgox
      23% bitstamp
      17% btcchina
    

And over the last 24h:
[http://bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=24h](http://bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=24h)

    
    
      33% btcchina
      25% bitstamp
      23% mtgox
    

In other words, Bitcoin's popularity is _massively increasing in China_ , as
we speak, and this is what is causing a surge of the exchange rate. Other
observers have noted this as well:

[http://bitcoinmagazine.com/7615/bitcoin-breaks-1000-cny-
rall...](http://bitcoinmagazine.com/7615/bitcoin-breaks-1000-cny-rally-
continues/)

~~~
waterlesscloud
You can literally watch BTC China lead the way. Their price goes up before Gox
does.

Having said that, a lot more coins are on BTC China today than yesterday, so
this effect may decrease.

------
sliverstorm
For once my general laziness looks like it is paying off. Mined a couple
bitcoins years and years ago, and was too lazy to sell them at the time.

~~~
Phlarp
Aha, but did your general laziness prevent you from properly storing the keys?

~~~
sliverstorm
You're sharp. That's exactly what I'm wondering right now. I think the answer
is yes though.

~~~
Phlarp
My pet theory is that a good amount of the early coins are effectively "dead"
with either the keys lost, brain wallets forgotten or the back-up USB keys
long since formatted (or you know, you got arrested and the encrypted wallet
is seized as evidence and revealing the key or otherwise moving the coins
would basically be an admission of guilt)

It's easy to set up triple redundant cold storage and promptly place multiple
paper backups in different safety deposit boxes now when the price is rounding
$200; but how many people went through this amount of effort when bitcoin was
still considered a joke or nifty social/economic experiment and traded below
$4 or even $.04

Even better; how many people stored them in an insecure manner and have since
lost them to a scam/virus/offline attack.

~~~
sktrdie
Those are all risks that come with using Bitcoin. I'm sure with time we'll see
lots of improvements. For now a good way to store coins is by using paper
wallets: [http://www.bitaddress.org/](http://www.bitaddress.org/) -you can
print them yourself using any printer. Some say your keys shouldn't even be on
any computer until you're ready to use them.

But for the rest Bitcoin is like cash. You lose the key you lose the cash.

~~~
Phlarp
Most times when one person "loses" cash another person "finds" it, leaving the
money supply unchanged. When a private key is lost all the coins in that
wallet are lost effectively forever. If this happens with large accounts the
potential for it to effect the overall economy cannot be ignored.

~~~
saym
What would the effect be?

~~~
kalleth
At a guess, the opposite of Quantitative Easing -- deflation and increasing a
bitcoins buying power.

Oh, but if it happens to a large enough account, a hit to the confidence of
people in bitcoins.

------
lectrick
I came here to bitch that the inflated MtGox price doesn't count... Then I
realized that is the non-MtGox price...

So it's officially a bubble? sigh

~~~
jaekwon
On a related note, ever heard of the bubble theory of money? The theory goes,
that good money is essentially a bubble that can't be popped easily. People
compare Bitcoin to the tulip mania, but that is a wrong analogy, given that
tulips can be cultivated by anyone to any degree -- whereas Bitcoins are
capped by design.

~~~
klochner
. . . but the quantity of all crypto-currencies is unlimited.

~~~
zachlatta
There will only ever be 21 million bitcoins. I recommend giving
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) a
read.

~~~
betterunix
Nothing stops anyone from making their own personal variant of Bitcoin,
however. Or 10 of those variants. Or a million. In other words, the limit
applies only within a single system, and there is no limit on the number of
such systems.

~~~
skriticos2
People care about Bitcoin. They don't care about other variants much. This
gives Bitcoin value and not the other variants.

In other words, creating another blockchain is easy but convincing enough
people that the variant coins are worth something is hard. Very hard.

~~~
betterunix
"convincing enough people that the variant coins are worth something is hard.
Very hard."

Somehow, people managed to be convinced that Bitcoin was worth something back
in 2009. What makes the current situation different? Whatever convinced people
that Bitcoin had any value in the first place might convince people that some
new alternative you started this morning has some value.

~~~
wmf
Obviously an altcoin would have to be as much better than Bitcoin (in the ways
people care about) as Bitcoin was better than the preceding stuff. A system
that is decentralized and doesn't require mining could have this property.

~~~
aaren
How would coins become valued without mining? Isn't this the way that bitcoins
actually become valued in terms of existing currency?

~~~
wmf
No, mining just prevents double-spending. The value comes from elsewhere.

~~~
aaren
People spend money on mining - power, equipment, time. This amounts to them
buying bitcoins (from the set that haven't been mined).

This gives bitcoins a value in terms of existing currency (dollars etc.).

They might accrue value in other ways (how?), but does this process not
bootstrap the bitcoins into having some initial value?

~~~
betterunix
"does this process not bootstrap the bitcoins into having some initial value?"

No, because nowhere in that explanation is there any mention of demand for the
mined bitcoins. If nobody were willing to accept a Bitcoin payment, the cost
of Bitcoin mining would be irrelevant because the value of Bitcoin would be
zero.

~~~
aaren
Ah, now I think I get it.

It is demand pull, not supply push - the miners are only willing to spend
money on mining because they think they can get that money back by selling.

Buying mining hardware is speculating on the future price of bitcoin.

------
simplemath
See you again at $1000 to talk about the bubble.

~~~
gweinberg
Looking forward to it. Bitcoin almost certainly will crash sooner or later,
and the pricks who have been insisting that bitcoin is JUST a bubble will all
be patting themselves on the back for being "right all along", even if t never
falls to what they were saying were vastly inflated values, and even if it
recovers again soon after. Which it likely will.

There are two things that can kill bitcoin: a dteermined attack by a major
world government, and something clearly better (from the point of view of its
users). I'm betting on the second.

~~~
simplemath
i agree that there is likely something better down the pipe, but at this point
almost 5 years on, BTC is finally gaining traction and awareness from even non
tech savvy people. The entire ecosystem is not going to be easy to duplicate.

------
MarcusBrutus
Bitcoin is fiat, it's not backed by anything of real value and doesn't have a
government or a strong (and I mean national-government-kind strong) player
behind it that is willing to devote actual resources to prop it up (which is
what all other fiat monies have and which is why they usually stay around for
a century or so, after that they either become obsolete or their value greatly
diminishes due to inflation). It has all of the Aristotelian properties of
money (durable, portable, fungible), and some extra ones too, except intrinsic
value. So it's not money according to Aristotle. When a better system comes
along (and it would be trivially easy for that to eventuate, imagine, e.g.
China or a major corporation or - even better - an industry association
offering an altcoin backed by gold, agricultural land, shares, face time with
celebrities, mentoring time - hey these are good ones! etc.), the value of
bitcoins will go to zero as everybody will want the new, better altcoin that
has at least some intrinsic value. The same death spiral cannot happen in the
case of government-backed fiats when a new fiat is introduced, for a number of
reasons. Bitcoin is inertia-backed fiat. I'll take the government-backed
variety any time.

~~~
kinghajj
There is no such thing as intrinsic value, all value is subjective, and
Bitcoin most definitely has subjective value; otherwise it would not be
exchanged! If you define "intrinsic value" as something like "has subjective
value for a great majority of individuals," then Bitcoin does have intrinsic
value as a way to easily and quietly send wealth without requiring a central
middle man. There are also numerous theoretical ways in which it could be made
useful (colored coins, for instance.) I don't understand how people can look
at Bitcoin and not see that it has some use, even if they believe that use is
overblown.

------
Fuzzwah
All those new ASIC miners coming online?

The difficulty jump over the last month is intense:
[http://bitcoindifficulty.com](http://bitcoindifficulty.com)

edit: This is a pretty good quick wrap up of what I think is going on here:
[http://chralash.wordpress.com/2013/09/17/the-new-pseudo-
bubb...](http://chralash.wordpress.com/2013/09/17/the-new-pseudo-bubble-
bitcoin-mining/)

~~~
simplemath
I personally think critical mass has been reached, and unless someone actually
cracks the protocol (which I seriously doubt) and brings down the txn network,
BTC is here to stay.

Quibbling about the current valuation misses the point. The secure transfer
mechanism is the real value, and is not getting shoved back in the bag. Bet
long on BTC and I doubt very highly you'll regret it, even if you get in at
200US and lose over the next few months.

~~~
TylerE
That's what the btc crowd has said every time it bubbles

How about you guys go 12 months without losing 25%+ of value in a single day
before you start talking about being "here to stay".

~~~
simplemath
Again if you're looking at BTC as e-gold you're missing the point.

The value is the txn network and that isn't going away. Price volatility is
irrelevant to the long term value of it as a transaction vector of last resort
for a huge number of applications.

~~~
betterunix
I would not have so much confidence in a system that, in your own words, is a
_last resort_.

~~~
simplemath
Last resort on a global scale is still a gigantic market.

------
yvishyar
the price is up because the miners cannot sell at prices lower than this as
the mining difficulty has gone up immensely...same as gold...if you have to do
sophisticated digging then you will do it only when the price of digging is
less than the price of gold...it will only go up more if the mining difficulty
continues at the same pace

------
theklub
I'm afraid that when bitcoin becomes more mainstream there is going to be
serious amounts of fraud and scamming.

~~~
olalonde
Bitcoin can be seen as a sort of digital gold. Credit cards / Paypal / etc.
could work exactly the same but be backed by Bitcoins instead of USD. See
[http://undergroundeconomist.com/post/36076277512](http://undergroundeconomist.com/post/36076277512)

~~~
brazzy
Funny you should mention gold... remember all those "digital gold currencies"
in the early 2000s? And how they were used in all kinds of frauds and scams?

------
stokedmartin
Don't get why the rate has risen? What factors have triggered the demand?
Also[1], stated that there is a while before corporations will start adopting
it.

[1]
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6589067](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6589067)

------
moccajoghurt
What about that guy that spent all his money on bitcoins? Is he rich now? Any
news about that guy?

~~~
epaga
"I originally went all in at $7, went out at the same price on the way down,
and went back all in at about $3. I've done extensive (bad) trading, and don't
have my entire initial position, and far from enough to make me financially
independent, but still a substantial amount (more than a year's average net
pay, to give a ballpark number). I'm currently all in."

[http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/1owf4v/im_rick_falkvin...](http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/1owf4v/im_rick_falkvinge_founder_of_the_first_pirate/)

------
swswsw
This is a chart on coinbase.com. Interesting, for a while, coinbase prices
seem to be following with bitstamp price. but at this moment, it seems to be
closer to mt. gox price.

At the very moment, I see mt. gox and coinbase price at $202. And bitstamp
price at $194.

------
dllthomas
I've been wondering whether people benefiting from bitcoin stability (silk
road?) mightn't have been manipulating exchange rates. This seems to be weak
evidence in support of that (though I still wouldn't say it seems likely).

~~~
narcissus
For what it's worth, Silk Road provided it's own system for guaranteeing
stability of price (that is to say, there were guaranteed exchange rates if
desired). I don't think there was any need for SR users (well, sellers at
least) to manipulate the price for that reason.

~~~
dllthomas
Interesting; have you more detail on that system?

~~~
gwern
Google its 'hedging' system; now that it's down, the documentation will be
harder to come by but there should still be clearnet discussions of it.

------
rdmcfee
I wonder why the coinbase prices are inflated to almost the GOX price. Are
there market makers and scalp traders driving up the coinbase prices now? From
my experience coinbase doesn't have the withdrawal issues like gox

------
salamandratech
This dashboard is very nice to see what's happening in the bitcoin world, in
real time : [http://realtimebitcoin.info/](http://realtimebitcoin.info/)

~~~
jafaku
I like this one better:
[https://bitcoinaverage.com/#USD](https://bitcoinaverage.com/#USD)

------
ksrm
So is there a good exchange for UK people that doesn't require ridiculous
amounts of identification like mt.gox?

~~~
dan1234
It's not an exchange (more of an escrow), and I've not used it but
[https://bitbargain.co.uk](https://bitbargain.co.uk) looks OK. They make the
right noises regarding security and the prices seem reasonable.

------
gesman
US default now-or-later squabble certainly fueled bitcoin.

It is becoming de-facto plan B for big players.

~~~
oscargrouch
wow! that will have big implications.. but i wonder what would do vey rich
people invest in bitcoins instead of gold wich is probably safer right now?

Thats not my area, but i would like to know if BC could get more attractive
than gold in a fallout economy scenario?

~~~
jaekwon
Bitcoin is more useful than gold in a society that has the internet.

If you want to prepare for a situation where we no longer have the internet,
then gold might be a viable option. But I don't care to consider that
possibility, for the same reason I don't care to prepare for a nuclear
holocaust. I believe my expected utility/happiness is greater this way.

------
brenfrow
I just sold all of my bitcoins. Here's to hoping the bubble burst.

~~~
TallboyOne
Same here. Now it's up another $30 :|

------
immad
Back down to $195.

