
How You Will Die - quantisan
http://flowingdata.com/2016/01/19/how-you-will-die/
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rdancer
These average predictors have always bugged me. While it may not be possible
to accurately predict the exact cause of my death, the risks for a wealthy
retired couple living a healthy lifestyle in a cottage in the rural
Switzerland is going to be different than those for a single retiree who
smokes, drinks whiskey, and lives in the centre of Beijing. There is no cause
of death that is meaningfully captured by averaging a coarse demographic.

The by far the most important determinant (more important than even sex and
race) is missing here: is your body fat level healthy? The median American is
overweight, and we'll soon reach the tipping point when the median American is
obese[1]. The huge % of deaths due to circulatory diseases is almost entirely
due to this (as is a fraction of the other causes). If you're healthy, the
data is too pessimistic. If you're too fat, the data is too optimistic.

[1] [http://stateofobesity.org/obesity-rates-trends-
overview/](http://stateofobesity.org/obesity-rates-trends-overview/)

