

Ask HN: Three years to startup - matt1

I'm an aspiring startup founder and am looking for advice on how to proceed.<p>Due to some other obligations, I have about three years until I can pursue a startup full time, at which point I'll be 27. Until then, it's nights and weekends for me. For the last year I've been getting caught up on web development and am now limited more by a lack of strategy than a lack of technical competence.<p>In an ideal world, in late 2012 I'd like to have a profitable, growing startup that puts me in a good position to apply to YC and the other seed stage start programs. I'd also like to be in a position where I'm not entirely dependent on getting accepted in order to be successful.<p>I'm in a bit of a good position to gamble since time is on my side. Am I better off working on a a project that takes 4-6 month to build and launch or one that takes 18-24 months? With the former, I can take more risks and can simply start over if it doesn't work out, but I feel like there might be more long term value in picking an ambitious, 1-2 year project. The downside, of course, is that I'm essentially going all-in on a single endeavor.<p>Additional details which may be relevant:<p>My business knowledge is slightly above knowing the differences between an LLC and an S Corp, but below having created one or knowing what to do with it if I did. I've been slowly becoming fluent in business lingo, but usually if I have a choice between hacking and reading about business structures I choose the former.<p>Also, I'm not good with system administration. Again, given a choice between learning a framework/building an app and learning about load balancing and things like that, I've chosen the former.<p>In summary, I have three years of nights and weekends to prepare to found a startup and want to maximize my chances of success. What's my gameplan?<p>PS: If you're in a similar boat and want to try building something together, let me know.
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petervandijck
Ok: 1\. How can you know that you still want to do this same startup in 3
years? You might get married. Get a kid. Get a great job. Loose your legs.
Google might have launched your idea and killed your chances. Just saying. 2\.
A project that takes 2 years to launch is a recipe for failure. Really. A
startup should take, say, 6 months to launch first beta, another 6 months to
get really going and get users, during the second year you slowly realize it's
not going anywhere, try some alternative approached, in the 3th year you shut
it down. That's typical. No way you can work on something for 3 years, launch
it and not be hugely dissapointed by its reception on the market.

So taking 1 and 2 together: 1\. Accept that you won't know what you're doing
in 3 years. 2\. Accept that you can't plan a successful startup 3 years in
advance. 3\. Start a small project, one you can launch in 6 months, and
consider it a learning experience. Then, by the time your 3 years are over,
you'll be ready to start a new startup, fulltime, having learnt a lot.

Do NOT plan a 3-year commitment in advance for a startup.

~~~
matt1
Peter, this is really good advice, thank you.

I'm not sure where I'll be in three years, but it does help to have a
direction. I am married and we do want kids around the same time so that would
obviously complicate things, which is partly why I'm trying to figure this out
now. Again, thanks for the comments.

~~~
pm
Don't wait. Get an idea, get a co-founder and hit the ground running. Three
years sounds like plenty of time, but it took me eight years and four failed
attempts at the same goal to get where I wanted to go.

You can't count on having a perfect run. Experiment now while you still have
more time on your hands.

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rewind
I don't have comments regarding the entire post, but I definitely have one
regarding the size of the project: stick to something smaller that you can
push out (at least in limited form) in your four-to-six-month timetable. If
you choose something that will take you almost two years to launch but you
can't commit full-time to it, then there will (most-likely) always be others
with a similar idea who can work more hours or get their product out faster.
Even if you didn't see competitors for a whole year, you'll still be stuck in
part-time mode. On a two-year, part-time schedule, you won't be able to react
at all to movement or changes in the market you decide to go into.

That's why I'd suggest sticking with something a bit smaller and a bit more
manageable that can launch early and grow slowly over time, which is much
better-suited to your schedule and existing commitments.

~~~
alexsolo
Also keep in mind that your estimates may be way off (on the optimistic side).

For my startup, we initially thought the idea would take 2 weeks to do. In
reality, it took closer to 3 months. In my case, once we started working on
the idea, we discovered it was quite a bit more complex than we anticipated.

~~~
donw
I second this! I've taken to multiplying my time estimates by three as a way
of working around the problem, but things will always take longer than you
expect. There's debugging time, dealing with bugs in other peoples' code time,
brain reset time when you need to stop and think, and let's not forget
girlfriend time (they need attention, too).

The way that I've figured out how to deal with this, is to punt absolutely
everything that isn't absolutely necessary into the next 'version' after
launch. Throw all of those cool features into your feature bucket, and only
implement them once you've gotten the existing feature set working.

Your mileage may vary, of course. :)

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patio11
Three years into opening my business I'm at the point where, if I wanted, I
could go full-time with it and not worry too much about my ability to put food
on the table and a roof over my head. I suppose if I wanted to I could apply
to a seed-fund, although candidly speaking taking other people's money is not
something I see doing in my future unless it is in return for providing them
goods or services.

My suggestion for you and any other person who wants to work on nights and
weekends: above all else, _ship something fast_. Most people throw in the
towel because they can't get into the positive feedback loop, it seems like it
will take forever until they can get there, then ork gets busy and the baby
gets sick and... and then they've forgotten about it.

Nothing replaces paying customers for giving ongoing motivation, feedback as
to how to make your application better (via asking directly and reading the
data about how they actually use it), and giving money to fund buying the
things that you can't produce yourself (like, in your case, managed hosting).

Incidentally: although I'm definitely on the quick side of the bell curve, I
took money for a product which was written (including the website to sell it
and everything) in eight days. There is nothing wrong with taking six months
to write something, but if you could have broken that into Phase 1: 1 month
and Phase 2: 5 months you'd have money coming in, a website collecting links,
customers giving suggestions, and MUCH less risk of building something no one
wanted.

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MicahWedemeyer
I've been doing the nights & weekends thing for exactly 3 years today (9/11).
My project is <http://www.obsidianportal.com>

We're profitable but I still need a dayjob to pay the bills, so take my advice
for what it's worth.

1\. Shorter release schedule is always preferable. Like others have said 2
years to launch is a really bad idea. However, my question is: Where did you
come up with these numbers? Do you have 2 different projects, or are you
setting arbitrary timelines and want to fit a project to that timeline?

2\. Going all-in is not a bad thing. I'm currently a "parallel entrepreneur"
and it's very hard. It's much easier to focus on a single thing and hit it
100% rather than focus on a lot of things at 20%.

3\. Sysadmin is easy: sign up for a service where someone else handles it. As
a Ruby on Rails guy, I heavily recommend Blue Box hosting. It's like having a
sysadmin on the team, and it's not much more expensive than Slicehost. It's a
good skill to learn, but I'm with you: let someone else do that stuff.

4\. It sounds like you need an idea. I know everyone says it's the execution,
not the idea, but you need _some_ idea to execute on. I would suggest using
your time now to try and find 2 things: an idea and a co-founder. Going to
local meetups, talking to people, and such would be good things to do at this
stage. Find something you can be passionate about, or else you'll never find
the motivation to spend your nights & weekends on it.

~~~
matt1
Micah, thanks.

My original thought process was that it'd be better to pick a long term
ambitious project and launch a minimum viable product for it in two years (not
a full project like I think I implied in the original post). As you and others
pointed out though, I should shrink that even more until I have something that
I can release in months, not years.

I have plenty of ideas, but they're mostly, in pg's words, science projects,
not company ideas. See, for example, HNTrends.com. Neat idea, but not exactly
something that's going to put food on the table.

There's pros and cons to looking for a big idea. If I identify something that
I'm passionate about, execute it well, and lady luck is on my side, I'll be in
good shape. But, the longer I drag my feet looking for a big idea, the more I
increase the chances that I'll miss out by not simply executing a small idea
and gradually growing it into something big. All that said, I think your
initial direction matters a lot. I imagine many founders have had great ideas
that they wish they could execute but they can't because they've committed to
something else which is why I'm taking the time right now to figure things
out.

I suppose what it all boils down to doing exactly what you said: find
something you're passionate about. that'll take care of almost everything
else.

~~~
MicahWedemeyer
I'm definitely not an advocate of "big ideas" but I do think people need to
shoot higher than yet-another-twitter-app. There's a middle ground, where
stuff like Basecamp sits. Not "enterprisey" but also not just a bullshit re-
tweet bot.

And passion definitely won't take care of everything, but it will solve the
motivation problem, which I think is the biggest problem that a nights &
weekends company has. You still need to find customers and all that, and while
passion helps, so too does having a useful, viable product.

I would suggest trying to get outside of the HN geek echo chamber. Ignore
Twitter, the iPhone, and all the other hot stuff right now and try to find an
area or group that's totally underserved on the web. Ask friends, girlfriends,
family, etc. for ideas on things they hate about the Web. In my case, my wife
found that small plant nurseries are stuck in like 1996 when it comes to the
web, so we started <http://doleaf.com> Sure, it's not super-sexy, but it
solves a real problem for these people, and they're willing to pay for it.

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vijayr
_Am I better off working on a a project that takes 4-6 month to build and
launch or one that takes 18-24 months?_

Why not have both? What I mean is, take a big project, break it into smaller
pieces of 3 months each (features 1-10 in first iteration, 11-20 in the second
and so on). Since you'll be releasing early, you can gauge the response to
your app, and adjust the next iteration according to the feedback (or even
drop the project completely if needed)

~~~
chrisconley
Exactly. Having a three year timeline allows you to have an overall strategy
that you can incrementally build towards.

~~~
matt1
Speaking of iterating often, how's your project coming?

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raffi
I read some of the comments and others have probably said what I'm going to
say. I wanted to startup too but due to other obligations ( _cough_ military
service _cough_ ), I couldn't do it until I was... get this... 27. So I know
how you feel. It's weird to watch friends do things and be successful and feel
like you have to wait until your turn.

Every year I wanted to create something I called a cyber lemonade stand. Tim
Ferris calls these muse businesses. I call it something simple where I charge
money, people pay me, and I learn that I can do it. This is a big confidence
builder and something you can start doing right away.
<http://www.feedbackarmy.com> was my cyber lemonade stand, After the Deadline
<http://www.afterthedeadline.com> was my startup.

What I find interesting is that I wasn't willing to take the steps towards the
lemonade stand until I was out of the Air Force and had no job. If you're
serious about starting up though, I really recommend you start on this concept
right away. A small project will let you experiment with the things necessary
to get something off the ground (contacting bloggers to generate PR, hiring
out small stuff you can't do well yourself, etc).

Once you hit that magical time when you can startup--go for it. But you're
thinking the right way trying to get some training in before the big race.

~~~
matt1
Raffi you have a great story and one I hope to emulate one day. Best of luck
with everything and congrats on your recent acquisition.

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noodle
simple: your gameplan is to sit down and start working. push to get the
_minimum viable product_ \- the minimum product that will bring in
users/feedback/revenue. plan your initial timelines around this instead of the
time you need to do everything you want.

learn more about the things you need to know when they come up. you don't need
full-time availabitlity to make a startup happen.

~~~
matt1
Thanks. I'm halfway through Four Steps to Epiphany. Great book--made me
realize I've been doing a lot of things poorly. I can't tell you how many
times I've spent months working on an app with high expectations only to
launch it and realize it didn't solve the user's actual needs. Doh.

~~~
noodle
there's definitely something to be said for using tight
design/build/deploy/feedback loops.

lets you make sure you're doing what your users want, instead of what you
think they want. build and improve with their feedback in mind.

------
skolor
Do you have both a 4-6 month idea and a 1-2 year idea? If you do, pick the one
you are most passionate about. Keep in mind that 3 years is long time, its
likely that whatever time table you start out with will be completely warped
by the time you could commit full time to it.

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jeromec
As others have mentioned 3 years is a long time, especially in web technology.
You say you can't commit full-time for 3 years, but what happens if you launch
the 4-6 month one and it takes off (but is not profitable) and demands your
time? I don't know if your other obligations can be set aside. The 18-24 month
project may be better, since you can work on it for so long, but external
forces on that timeframe could either work for or against you. For example, if
your idea is so advanced that the market is not really ready for it then
waiting would be better. Conversely, the market could be so ripe someone else
is bound to release something similar before you.

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dustingetz
The general consensus seems to be, launch as fast as possible. Don't put a
year into something only to find that your idea isn't as monetizeable as you
thought.

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edw519
_My business knowledge is slightly above knowing the differences between an
LLC and an S Corp, but below having created one or knowing what to do with it
if I did. I've been slowly becoming fluent in business lingo, but usually if I
have a choice between hacking and reading about business structures I choose
the former._

Everything you mention in this paragraph about "business knowledge" falls into
my category, "Details to worry about later."

You omit, however, the single most important business issue of all, the only
one of concern for now, and in fact, one the you _must_ be concerned about
now: consumers. Whether you call them customers or users, _someone_ will be
using your software, right? Then you better find a way to get to know them
now. This is a critical component of application development, every bit as
important as the technology.

Lots of things about your consumers could change between now and deployment,
but you have plenty of time to incorporate them into your plan. So make sure
you do.

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alexmacgregor
Hi Matt, I understand your scenario. I am working a project on a part-time
basis that might interest you. My mail's in my profile if you want to discuss
it or anything else.

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felideon
So Domain Pigeon is just a side project for you?

~~~
matt1
Yes, primarily to learn Rails, among other things. Before I only had limited
web development experience, mostly with some simple PHP sites.

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secret
What markets/industries are you interested in?

~~~
matt1
I'm leaning towards something to do with online collaboration, though I'm
still working out the details and am open to new areas.

I think Twitter is kind of stupid too.

