
The Nightmare That Keeps Microsoft Awake: Android On The Desktop - mtgx
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ewanspence/2013/01/12/the-nightmare-that-keeps-microsoft-awake-android-on-the-desktop/
======
keithwarren
This is what happens when authors have quotas. They fill space. No analysis,
no research. No facts even, would not have taken but a few minutes to pull
data and do a juxtaposition on market shares of desktop PCs and the move to
tablets in the consumer space. The sad thing is, that guy got paid to write
those words.

~~~
maskedinvader
I agree, not sure the author knows what he is talking about ! not a single
number or research study result or even a trivia to support his claim, Mobile
OSes simply aren't designed for using the PC hardware ! A claim I can make by
simply looking at the Android SDK/ iOS SDK / windows phone SDK, none of them
truly can match up to what windows sdk has to offer !

------
mdasen
Google and Apple have both found great success in phones while Microsoft has
floundered and so the article logically asks, "what's to stop Google and Apple
from carving up the desktop (including laptop) space as they have with
phones?" The key is inertia. While Microsoft may have had a mobile OS before
Apple or Google, it never really caught on. There was no inertia in the
smartphone space. When Apple came along with iOS, almost no one had a
smartphone. Apple didn't have to convince users to switch from a mobile
platform they already felt was ok. Similarly, even when Android entered, the
majority of people didn't have to be convinced to switch. Most people didn't
have a smartphone.

Most people do have a desktop. They've invested years of time learning Windows
and have applications specifically written for it. Desktop Linux has been
around for years and hasn't made a dent in Windows. Why would a new desktop
Linux distribution change that?

In many ways Android Desktop would be inferior to most desktop Linux
distributions because it would be launching with few, if any, apps. Android
has many mobile apps, but just like iOS and OS X, we would really need
separate apps for both. Google could provide a Linux with Android APIs just as
Apple shares much of Cocoa between iOS and OS X. However, traditional linux
distributions are quite usable (my complaints about Gnome 3 and Unity aside)
and they haven't made much of a dent in Windows. If people don't want those,
why would they want Desktop Android?

Branding might help. People might hear Android and think, "oh, I've heard of
that or used that before". Still, the "Windows" brand hasn't been helping
Microsoft counter Google and Apple in the mobile space. In fact, looking at
the mobile space, we can see how important inertia is. Despite coming out with
a quite good mobile OS and getting Nokia to commit to exclusivity, that
combined force just can't make a dent in consumer inertia toward iOS and
Android. Even if Google came out with a premium desktop OS with the Android
brand that people know and love, would users change their inertia?

It just seems less likely to me. In mobile, Google and Apple weren't fighting
inertia. They were creating a new space.

~~~
rjtavares
While I don't disagree with your overall point:

> just like iOS and OS X, we would really need separate apps for both

Why? A desktop computer is powerful enough to emulate a smartphone, so
existing Android apps could be desktop compatible (especially tablet ready
apps).

~~~
svantana
Because in desktop apps we're expecting resizable windows, right-click
ability, menus, mouse-over etc. Apps made for fullscreen touch devices would
feel a bit crippled.

~~~
rjtavares
I'm not saying it would be perfect, but it would definitely be better than no
apps at all.

~~~
pretoriusB
"Better than no apps at all" hardly wins the desktop market -- which is what
we are discussing here...

------
johngalt
The future looks like a smartphone and docking station. The phones already
have the horsepower needed to run all but the most demanding apps. Add a full
size keyboard/monitor when in dock and people will switch in droves. The only
question is which of the big three will get the formula right.

Apple would have the best shot if that was their direction, but they seem to
be betting on multiple device sync rather that a single unified device. Also
they will be too pricey in the long run.

Microsoft is pushing for a unified device vision with win8 but windows phone
doesn't have market share. Win7 is good enough for desktop users. Clock is
ticking and MS needs a 'hit' crossover device. Doubtful that we will see one.

Google already has desktop mode for android devices and several phones with
HDMI output. Motorola and Samsung are making docking kits _today_. Also
android is by far the cheapest option. The only thing holding back Google is a
lack of salesmanship. If Steve Jobs had announced the Galaxy Note 2 and demoed
the dock/desktop functions this market would be locked up already.

~~~
ladzoppelin
Windows 8 phone will probably have the market share in due time. Nokia has
already reported increasing profits and personally I cant wait to switch out
my Droid 2 for one. Windows 8 on the desktop is also amazing once you step
back from the blogger cloud of BS and actually use it. Having the same OS on
both desktop and phone is a powerful idea which even Ubuntu developers are now
beginning to realize.

<http://www.ubuntu.com/devices/phone>

~~~
tellarin
I definitely agree that having the same OS on your phone and desktop has a lot
of potential.

But calling Win8 'amazing' on the desktop is a bit too much. It's about the
same as Win7, with faster boot times and those kind-of-out-of-place Metro
apps.

On a tablet, or on a laptop with a touch screen, on the other hand, then it is
not bad after you get used to it.

~~~
ladzoppelin
It is the GPU acceleration of the UI and font rendering in desktop mode, the
Hyper V integration, lower memory footprint and security enhancements that I
think make it amazing. Sorry I should of said that is just my personal
opinion. Yours is just as valid.

------
neya
I am an hardcore Android fan. But this is too much of a stretch. I've been
using Windows since Windows 95. I use OSX too, of course. And then Ubuntu too
- 10.04 LTS, 12.04, and 12.10. As for smartphones - 4 HTC phones with Android
2.3+, an iPhone and a Nokia Lumia. But, even if today Google releases Android
for the desktop, I wouldn't use it (as my main OS). Atleast not now.

There are somethings that are hard-coded within users like me. No matter what
we do, we will go back to windows, no matter how bad it is - be it Vista or
Longhorn or whatever. Because that's the influence of Windows. Bill gates made
sure Windows and PC's are in harmony with each other right from the beginning.
The number of applications, the vibrant developer community and the number of
epic GAMES!

You may not notice this pattern within the US where you will encounter a lot
of people on OSX. But the rest of the world, which is the majority, loves
Windows. It's not going to be like one fine day someone comes in and says hey,
you know what, Android's there for desktop, so you can stop using Windows.
That will never happen. One main reason is the enormous developer community
and applications available for Windows. Not to forget the fact that Windows is
the #1 most pirated OS of all time ESPECIALLY in countries like China, India,
etc. which is where the majority of the population lives (#1, #2
respectively). This means, if you take into account all the pirated copies
too, the user base is enormous and it only keeps growing with each day.
Because that was Bill Gates' vision and he has actually accomplished it. By no
means I'm an MSFT 'fanboy'. This is just from what I know, what I observe
around me, based on some analytical data derived from my business. In other
words, this article is a fluff.

~~~
Joeri
China may love windows, but they love ipads more. Tablet sales are booming and
pc sales are falling.

[http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/28/us-china-tablet-
ma...](http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/28/us-china-tablet-market-
idUSBRE8AR04K20121128)

[http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/08/31/apac_pc_sales_declin...](http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/08/31/apac_pc_sales_decline_china_loss/)

~~~
w1ntermute
A lot of Chinese people buy Apple products just to show them off. It's quite
common there to buy a Mac and install Windows on it, because they don't like
OS X.

~~~
tellarin
From what I've heard, the main issue with OS X is with Chinese input. MS seems
to do a much better job there.

I haven't tried writing in Chinese in a Mac though, so I can't say much there.
But on Windows it works quite nicely (from the point of view of a foreigner
trying to learn the language).

~~~
w1ntermute
> From what I've heard, the main issue with OS X is with Chinese input. MS
> seems to do a much better job there.

I've never heard of this before. Pinyin input is pretty straightforward, and
it works fine on OS X as far as I know. Is the predictive engine worse or
something?

~~~
tellarin
Guess so. But I haven't tried it. I'll ask around.

------
fh973
Again somebody seems to misunderstand what OS means. Only because Android OS
and Chrome OS are called operating systems does not mean they play in the same
category as Windows. Windows is a platform, because it has vendor-provided
high-quality drivers for basically any hardware device, wheres Android,
Chrome, and OS X are always a customization for a particular device or device
series. Drivers and a good driver model for the OS are hard.

If there was no Windows (or better anything like the x86-Windows PC platform),
there would likely be no hardware platform to run Linux on, and CPUs for OS X
would be way less powerful due to lack of the progress of a highly competitive
market over two decades.

For this reason, the potential demise of Windows is a nightmare that should
keep any IT professional awake. But I am optimistic: web apps have yet to
prove to be on par with desktop apps, and there seems always to be the next
desktop app when you think people are basically only using a web browser. I am
confident that in 10 years there still will be Windows PCs or Laptops in
private households, together with many other devices.

Or am I missing something?

------
kmfrk
Marco (hate him or love him) nailed the criticism of this a few years back:

    
    
        The joke of “next year will be the year of Linux on the
        desktop” is almost as old as the internet, but it’s
        true: desktop-Linux fans always say it’s “getting
        better”, and there’s always a major distribution update
        a few months away that’s about to be awesome. But it
        never is. And it never will be, because the reasons why
        desktop Linux isn’t awesome today will still hold
        tomorrow: it’s still an extremely fragmented
        development community for which the non-geek user
        experience is one of the lowest priorities.
    

Read the whole thing: <http://www.marco.org/2010/07/04/great-since-day-one>.

EDIT: I resubmitted it, because it is as relevant then as it is now:
<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5051152>.

~~~
graue
I've seen that article and I submit the Nexus 7 as a counter-example. (If
anyone didn't read the link: that quote's making an analogy between desktop
Linux and Android devices.) The Nexus 7 was widely agreed to be great on day
one, even by certain die-hard Apple fans. (I forget if Marco was one of
those.)

With that, Google now has a track record of achieving "great on day one".
Who's to say they can't repeat that on the desktop? In fact, they may be well
on their way with the new Samsung Chromebook, which seems to have received
mostly praise: the biggest remaining criticisms are with the concept, not the
execution.

~~~
dhugiaskmak
You can't have a "track record" of something after doing that thing only once.

~~~
graue
This comment does not contribute to the discussion.

<http://tirania.org/blog/archive/2011/Feb-17.html>

It was quite clear what I meant — they have proven by example that they can do
it.

------
petrel
Just a hot headline. Nothing will happen. Whether, Android on Surface or
Winodws / Ubuntu on Nexus or something else on some other device. There is
more world than just what Geeks do. Just a catchy headline and author have no
any justified reason for it.

~~~
digitalengineer
But there is something to it: Linux could use some Google attention and to
make Android/Linux run on laptops would be something Microsoft fears if it
catches on. The Samsung ChromeBook is the best selling laptop for Amazon
[http://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers-Computers-Accessories-
Lap...](http://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers-Computers-Accessories-
Laptop/zgbs/pc/565108) Why make Chrome OS and Android? Put the effort in
Android for desktop...

~~~
kenjackson
At one point WP7 devices dominated the Amazon cell phone list in terms of
sales. Due to the way people purchase and buy certain items (like desktops,
laptops, and cellphones) -- Amazon is not a good sample. It tends to reflect
niche groups that find a good deal on Amazon -- so everyone from
ChromeLovers.com goes to Amazon to buy the Chromebook, but it's not really
popular beyond that.

"Linux could use some Google attention" -- I'm not sure if you noticed, but
Google has been giving Linux its attention for the past 14 years.

~~~
digitalengineer
You've got me. I ment to say Linux/Android for regular desktop _users_ could
use some attention. MS has released their own version of Mobile/Desktop. What
if Google went the other way around and released an Android desktop version?
Powerful stuff me thinks.

~~~
zanny
Why would they try to force an entire application stack that has nothing to do
with windowing or full opengl and try to put it on x86?

The people who don't need desktops or laptops are already using ipads and
Android tablets as computing replacements. They get their web apps and that is
all they want. To write emails, they might get a bluetooth keyboard. To write
a document, they might use google docs. They have no use case for a full sized
x86 desktop or laptop anymore.

Meanwhile, productivity software like Photoshop or Sony Vegas is completely
off the table for Android. Both depend on directX, and unless Google outright
bought Adobe or Sony they wouldn't persuade them to rewrite the whole thing to
port it. That stuff won't show up on Windows RT either, even though porting
with DirectX intact would still be easier than porting to openGL. Same thing
with old games.

If Android x86 or just desktop ARM were put in stores tomorrow, no one would
buy it. Gamers would get Windows for games, artists would get Windows for
photoshop, grandparents would still buy tablets because they don't need a
desktop, and businesses would still get Windows because all their shoddy
business applications were written on Windows.

------
justinph
Can we please stop linking to forbes.com? They hardly post anything that isn't
un-researched trollbait, inflated hype, or outright plagiarism.

------
raganwald
Not a great article, but I'll play along. If it happens, I don;t see Android
on the desktop. I see android tablets replacing desktops in the future, with
people docking a tablet or perhaps they're cheap enough that people have a 15"
tablet more-or-less permanently docked at their desk but able to roam into a
meeting, along with a 7" tablet in their briefcase or purse. And a phone, of
course.

~~~
rbanffy
I can easily see Android brains built into every monitor and TV. TVs already
have reasonable brains and most of them run Linux. From that to running
Android (and bringing a whole app ecosystem along) is a small step (some extra
DRAM, some extra flash).

When every monitor runs a full Android environment, you may just log on to
your monitor and have your Google-hosted data and applications ready.

For Microsoft, this is not only a nightmare scenario. It's a doomsday
scenario.

------
nicholassmith
Would a medium to large business go Android over Windows? I really, really
doubt it. Yes, there's Office apps and that's fine, but a lot of businesses
run on oddball software or strange marriages of various bits and pieces that
are Windows only for whatever reason. They won't, and that'll keep the cash
going for Microsoft.

Microsoft needs to worry about being relevant with modern consumers, not about
Android. It could be anything that'll eat their marketshare.

~~~
martinced
But large businesses represents less than 50% of the GDP (of either the U.S.
or Europe).

Contrarily to popular belief the real backbone of the economy is not
"corporate america". They're just very vocal.

Think of it this way: BlackBerry was still ruling king in the corporate world
(with some companies buying _thousands_ of BlackBerries at once for their
employees) and yet everybody knew the writing was on the wall: nothing would
stop the iPhone and Android. What's the result now? Employees are crying to
use their iPhone and Android phones at work and so they're allowed to.

I'm sure, say, corporate America is still high on Excel and Powerpoint and
Exchange... But that is not exactly helping Microsoft deal with the fact that
year-to-year sales of PCs worlwide have dropped 3.5% from 2011 to 2012 while,
meanwhile, smartphones and tablets sales have skyrocketed.

~~~
nicholassmith
Oh I know that, but whilst the count for less than 50% of GDP they're also one
of the biggest customer sectors for Microsoft, and one that is unlikely to dry
up and disappear. They'll have a market there for as long as the market is
there, and that's dependent on enterprise developers wanting to move
development platforms to whatever the new hotness is.

For consumers it's all a 'it depends'. It depends on whether it's good enough,
rather than whether it does everything they could ever possibly need to.

------
jelled
In case anyone wants to run Android on their desktop today check out androvm:
<http://androvm.org/blog/download/>. It runs much faster then the emulator
that comes with the android SDK.

~~~
VLM
A couple years ago I installed androidx86 on an old netbook. Works pretty
well. <http://www.android-x86.org/>

------
vamur
I'd say they should be more worried about ChromeOS, as the Samsung Chromebook
is still #1 on Amazon laptops despite all the marketing money spent on Windows
8.

For Android, if Google added desktop mode and improved performance, and well-
known OEMs released stick PCs with 4GB RAM and quad-core ARM A15, then Android
could become a serious contender in the low-end market.

------
krutulis
The nightmare that keeps Microsoft awake is that the idea of "the desktop"
might become irrelevant.

While the metaphor was useful in its day, the trend-setters I encounter (who
are not programmers) seem far more concerned with new notions of "presence,"
they view my focus on controlling my own little world as quaint, and they
resent being tied to any particular device.

------
meaty
And unicorns and monkeys will start flying out of my butt...

There is absolutely no possibility that Android or any bastardisation of it
can or will be used for anything involving moderate productivity apart from a
geek niche.

Why?

People really don't have the time or inclination to meddle around and learn
new interface paradigms for the sake of anything other than consuming. For
people who earn cash or actually have to get shit done, it's too much of a
context switch to get over. Not only that, it actually wrecks productivity.

It's hard enough for people to move from Windows to Linux.

And don't say about OSX market share or penetration as an example - there are
precisely sod all Macs in the majority of businesses.

People aren't even buying Windows 8 because it's too different.

People actually really like Windows XP-7 and Office 97-2010 and don't want
anything else. Sorry if this is painful news.

Even smartphones are starting to piss people off. I've seen so many people
switching back to feature-phones like Nokia Asha and cheap Samsungs recently,
it's unreal.

------
gillianseed
Hmmm.. isn't the problem that Windows 8 is facing at the moment that the
consumers are rejecting the notion of a mobile style interface on the desktop?

Why retool Android for 'desktop use' when they already have ChromeOS which
apparently sold very well this christmas in the guise of Chromebook's and is
already a desktop oriented OS.

------
fatbird
Whenever I speculate with colleagues on what replaces Windows in businesses in
five years, it's a Dell or HP machine that's just monitor, keyboard and mouse,
running an upsized version of Android that accesses a cloud based office
suite. That would keep me up at night, at MS.

~~~
Joeri
If it runs office, they'll still make their dime on it.

Ah and look what we have here:
[http://www.theverge.com/2012/11/7/3612422/microsoft-
office-m...](http://www.theverge.com/2012/11/7/3612422/microsoft-office-
mobile-ipad-iphone-android-screenshots)

They might still do ok on the corporate desktop. Windows rt is competitive
with android in functionality and price (when you look only at the sort of
tablets corporations would buy.) The lack of apps is not a showstopper for
tablets that will be locked down anyway.

Also, the PC market is getting replaced largely with tablets, so PC vendors
who aren't big players in the tablet space face an uphill battle. HP is done
for. Dell has some tablet expertise, and betting on windows 8 is smart in case
it succeeds, but they will have to fight hard to not be driven out of the
market by asus, samsung and google.

~~~
fatbird
Replacing Office is really the fatal blow, and that's where I wonder when
we'll see someone like Dell or HP selling a cheap, business class iMac-like
running Android on Arm in an effort to restore margins on high volume business
channel sales. The obvious drop-in replacement in that case is Google Apps,
and I'm sure Google would be happy to partner with an OEM to develop such a
complete device.

The trick there is that the OEM needs to feel like MS won't or can't crush
them. The aura of invulnerability of MS has to be broken, and when I look at
the extended pratfall that is Windows phone and tablet, I can't help but think
that OEM execs are feeling a bit drooly.

~~~
rprasad
Aside from the collaboration functionality which is now present in Office
2013, Google Apps is about where Office was in 2000. It has a long way to go
before it is a suitable replacement for anything except the simplest business
uses.

~~~
lmm
Businesses in 2000 managed just fine with that version of Office; as an
occasional user at work I don't really see what's changed since then.

------
mark_l_watson
Android is great for touch screen devices but I am not so sure about using it
on a desktop with a mouse without all my software running on it.

I spent almost a month with just my Galaxy S III on a trip up the Amazon
River. I grew to really love the Android experience in general and my S III in
specific. Great interface, great for reading eBooks, great for communications
when around a wifi hotspot, great for taking pictures and videos. When I got
home, it took me a while to start liking my iPad again.

I have been looking at Android docking devices. With more powerful devices and
future software Android support for Emacs, IntelliJ, etc., why not.

~~~
mark_l_watson
Actually, wireless docking, Bluetooth keyboard, and using the phone for a
touchpad would work. Still need Emacs, IntelliJ, good terminal, GNU utilities,
etc.

------
Zigurd
Here is the killer quote:

"I’ve no information on the likelihood if an Android OS will ever have an
official desktop version, but then neither does Microsoft."

Pumping up Android into a desktop OS, although it is theoretically possible,
makes as much sense as dragging a bulky decades-old desktop OS into tablets
and handsets.

The article also lacks technical depth: The speculation might have even been
fascinating, though still baseless, if it compared, for example, what it took
to make Android multi-user versus a hypothetical desktop multi-window UI with
all the attendant lifecycle modifications.

------
f4stjack
Um. Doesn't anybody find a little funny that the word "linux" does not
mentioned in the article? I mean, considering android is built upon linux
kernel, a linux on a desktop pc can be called as android on the desktop
technically, right?

~~~
jackalope
No. Although Android uses a Linux kernel, it bears almost no resemblance to
other Linux-based operating systems.

~~~
f4stjack
Fair enough. Thank you for the information.

------
rprasad
Until Android can run an office suite that doesn't horribly mangle basic
formatting, Microsoft has nothing to worry about.

------
transitionality
You can install Android on an x86 desktop now and even run binary ARM Android
apps on it.

<http://android-x86.sceners.org/en/?p=580>

