
Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party - JumpCrisscross
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/12/world/asia/hong-kong-protests-communist-party.htmL
======
Aeolun
> “How do you think Beijing will think now?” he added. “Do you think they will
> want to give democracy to people when people are insulting their rule?”

What do you think Beijing thought before? What a good boy you were being?

Beijing doesn’t want to give you democracy regardless of what you are doing.
Now they just have to be way more overt about it.

~~~
joelx
Beijing will slaughter these protesters eventually either in public or
secretly. We have an absolute moral imperative to give everyone in Hong Kong
the option to evacuate to a free country.

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kenneth
So… a few thoughts. I live in HK (having semi-recently moved here from the Bay
Area, right before this all flared up).

First, there's a ton of misinformation out there. Few sources have entirely
accurate information, but the best English-language resource I've found on the
subject is the local paper South China Morning Post (scmp.com). They have
pretty accurate and unbiased live reporting of the protests as it flares up.
Twitter and private groups have unfiltered live information.

The movement is still described as "anti extradition bill," but has long
stopped being about the extradition bill that triggered it all. At this point,
it's simply a revolution against an increasingly worrying shift towards
Beijing-controlled authoritarianism.

The mood has intensified and darkened since the beginning of the movement in
June. There is a lot more disagreement now about whether the protester's
tactics are justified. The protests are losing a lot of general support, but
still attract overwhelmingly large crowds. Police has stepped up the
aggression, the gov't isn't budging, and dissidents are increasingly angry and
willing to resort to violence and guerrilla tactics. There's also the added
element of the white shirt counter-protesters (allegedly triads, allegedly
China-backed) inciting indiscriminate violence to attempt to scare the public
into distancing themselves from the movement.

Nobody has died yet, but the violence is getting worse and some people are
getting seriously hurt. Yesterday's flare-up at the airport was in response to
anger about a female medic protester being shot point-blank in the face by
police and losing an eye. There were some pretty horrific scenes of police
shooting tear gas rounds at close range in Kwai Fong MTR station (which is
against the rules for how to use tear gas and which endangers both protesters
and bystanders and MTR employees alike).

My life here hasn't been affected much, but I do make an effort to avoid the
protests area which aren't exactly safe. There have been quite a few of
regular transit disruption. I've definitely have had several days of cancelled
plans due to transportation issues. I've had friends crash with me because
their neighborhood was in the middle of a protest fight. I've had a friend get
tear gassed walking home a bit too close to a group of protesters.

Hope this all gets resolved peacefully soon, but let's be real… it won't. I
expect this will continue to escalate. I'm watching China's response
carefully, because there's a risk they make some pretty unprecedented moves.

For perspective, here's a comment I wrote the day of the first violent protest
on June 12th (which I attended):
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20167292](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20167292)

Happy to answer any questions from the perspective of an expat on the ground.

~~~
londons_explore
What do you think are the chances that the tanks roll in, all protestors are
shot or arrested, marshal law is declared for a few months, and eventually
Hong Kong becomes just another city in China without its own special
governance or laws?

~~~
Mengkudulangsat
There's a third way; getting "Singapore-d".

In the 1960s Singapore annoyed Malaysia so much they were essentially ejected
from the federation against their will.

It was a major shock at the time, but decades later the two countries are
still mostly amicable. I sincerely hope China would consider this route.

~~~
mytailorisrich
Why would China even consider "ejecting" a part of its territory that they
fought over for a long time to finally get back?

Recovery of lost territories and reunification of the country is a core policy
of the Chinese government(s) since 1912...

And as noted in the replies, striving for national unity is an ancient theme
of Chinese national psyche.

~~~
Mengkudulangsat
Which I find to be irrational.

Stamford Raffles "took" Singapore from the Malay sultanate in the 1820s. In
1963, we finally got it back, but let them go barely two years later due to
ingrained cultural differences that manifested during the meantime.

With the rise of so many capable cities on the mainland, perhaps pursuit of
unification is just not worth the trouble anymore.

~~~
nesadi
> With the rise of so many capable cities on the mainland, perhaps pursuit of
> unification is just not worth the trouble anymore.

Maybe to you? It's clear from China's actions that they think otherwise and
they're willing to do whatever it takes to ensure control and unification.

~~~
Aeolun
You can’t really have a bastion of free speech and democracy on your doorstep
as an authoritarian state.

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zeristor
What are the chances of the unrest spreading into China?

One hears of sporadic unrest through China, I take the economy hasn’t yet
faltered so people aren’t too disgruntled.

I take it this qualifies as “Interesting Times”

~~~
kmlx
0 to minimal chance. the brainwashing happening in mainland china makes those
protesters into terrorists supported by foreign governments. that’s the level
where china is at right now.

~~~
toxik
I think in the mind of the Chinese mainlanders, HK was always supposed to be a
part of China proper, just like Taiwan. These riots are seen as childish at
best, and at worst, a threat to the LEGITIMATE rule of the central Chinese
government. Again, this is their view on things. If that's what you think,
then of course you'd be for a harsher response, they're attacking what you
think is right and true.

Of course, in the West, we don't admit the CCP as truly rightful rulers of
China for many reasons, but mainly because they're not democratically elected.
There is no refusing, there is no dissent. The Chinese aren't dumb, they see
that too, but they see it as the price you pay for orderliness. And maybe it
is? This, coincidentally, is also used to justify censorship: it is the price
you pay for running a large society effectively. And maybe it is. We see
censorship on our side of the world too, in the name of combatting fake news,
child pornography and terrorism.... Exactly how you justify it in China.

The CCP's largest issues all stem from not truly being of the people and thus
lacking that pressure valve: unchecked corruption, and an inability to uphold
ethical standards. We've seen this with authoritarian regimes time and time
again, with the Nazis, with the Soviet, and now with the CCP.

This was a rant about nothing, thanks for reading.

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gondo
Carrie Lam, leader of Hong Kong, can’t answer whether she has the power to
withdraw the extradition bill:
[https://twitter.com/TheAPJournalist/status/11611029359228108...](https://twitter.com/TheAPJournalist/status/1161102935922810880)

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twhitmore
Everybody, this is a dangerous time. APCs are massing in Shenzhen (see other
thread).

Now is the time to email your local Chinese embassy. Carrie Lam, the top HK
politician. Michael Tien and Ronnie Wong, leading pro-establishment
politicians. Let them know dialogue & political solutions are needed, violence
is not acceptable, and that PEOPLE ARE WATCHING AND CARE.

Mention any connections to China you have. Your voice can make a difference to
the political calculus. But time is very short. Act now.

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julienreszka
Mainland China will implode by 2025. Debt + aging population.

~~~
tabtab
You just described the USA also.

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unityByFreedom
I highly recommend following and supporting the Hong Kong Free Press, an
independently funded online paper:

[https://www.hongkongfp.com/](https://www.hongkongfp.com/)

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brianpgordon
> China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, wants to make Hong Kong more like a mainland
> city, using economic incentives to buy happiness and propaganda to win
> loyalty. The protesters, who represent a wide swath of Hong Kong, want a
> government that looks out for their interests, not just Beijing’s, to help
> resolve problems like astronomical housing prices and low wages.

> The two sides no longer seem to recognize each other’s concerns.

This kind of language is why the NYT is the subject of so many centrism memes.
There are no "two sides" that can "recognize each other's concerns" and get
along. There are democracy and authoritarianism. I'm kind of flabbergasted
that they can't find the courage to take a stand on even such a black-and-
white issue. It's always "two sides."

~~~
mieseratte
> This kind of language is why the NYT is the subject of so many centrism
> memes. There are no "two sides" that can "recognize each other's concerns"
> and get along. There are democracy and authoritarianism.

They're a newspaper, not a political blog. This isn't an op-ed. They're not
meant to be "taking a side."

~~~
michaelt
In some situations there is an underlying truth, and opposing sides (who have
both public and private agendas) will gladly lie and spin in order to get
their way.

For example, perhaps Ukraine says they've been invaded by Russian troops
without insignias; and Russia says it isn't them.

Some would say the ideal in journalism would be not only to report the
conflicting statements, but also to _determine and report what the underlying
truth is_.

~~~
mieseratte
What underlying truth have they missed here? The only thing I see here is that
people are shitting on the NYT for not picking a side.

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Simulacra
Another Tiananmen Square massacre on the horizon...

