
The End of College? Not So Fast - ilamont
http://chronicle.com/article/The-End-of-College-Not-So/228937/?cid=wc&utm_source=wc&utm_medium=en
======
copsarebastards
Course completion percentages are a ridiculous measure of success. _Of course_
free online courses are going to have a lower course completion rate. I don't
know how anyone could be surprised by this, or why anyone would care.

This isn't a problem. If I start a MOOC and don't finish, I have gained a
little knowledge and lost nothing. College completion rates _are_ a problem,
because if I start college and don't finish, I'm saddled with thousands of
dollars in debt and no degree. Completion isn't a problem with MOOCs, it's an
_advantage_ of MOOCs.

Missing out on the other aspects of college life is a mixed bag. Networking
and lab work are definitely downsides to MOOCs, but these are potentially
solvable problems. But there are serious downsides to college life too. I
won't be sad to see the binge drinking and sexual assault culture of "greek"
life die out, and I'm not going to shed any tears for sports stars actually
having to focus on academics.

But the real crux here is that if trends continue, the cost of college is
going to make this all irrelevant. It already is for many people: the author's
quote that most students graduate with $30K of debt, as if that's a trivial
sum, shows a stunning lack of awareness.

What none of the author's facts capture are the students who either don't
start or don't finish because of cost. Tuition keeps rising and financial aid
continues to be inadequate. There are only two solutions I see to this
problem: funding gets better or we go with MOOCs. MOOCs aren't a perfect
solution, but it may be the only solution we get.

~~~
Lawtonfogle
For me the real benefit of college was being put with others into the same
class, the access to research labs, the face to face interactions with
professors, and the access to face to face academic focused student
organizations. (Honestly I should've done far more on the networking side of
things.)

Those are not going to be easy to replace, but there should be a compromise
where you can get these things without the greek life and less 'sports first
and foremost' culture and with a massively reduced cost. MOOCs can definitely
plan into this and even replace a lot of it for self starters, but I do think
I would have been worse off without the social aspects of my university years.

~~~
ritchiea
There are plenty of schools without greek life and sports first cultures. Most
liberal arts schools for example.

~~~
copsarebastards
That is true. But liberal arts schools are also the least likely to be priced
out by MOOCs. Liberal arts schools are more affordable than most, if you can
get in.

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munin
after running a few MOOC classes and contrasting them to brick and mortar
classes the real problem in my opinion is assessment. the material we prepared
was equal to what we would teach in a college class, but the assignment
quality is not. this is I think a fundamental problem of scale. the only
assessment tools that we have are multiple choice and regular expression
matching short answer quiz questions. coming up with challenging yet fair
multiple choice questions that let the learner express they have mastered a
concept is extremely difficult. and to make the class rigorous, MOOC
instructors would have to re-do that work for each class, which defeats
another scaling point.

I think that MOOCs solved the wrong problem and because of that aren't the
solution to the class. the MOOC is an iteration on the textbook. a domain
expert puts a lot of time into the layout, design and presentation of
materials and then creates a relatively static asset out of it. it's less
static than the old textbook, but you can't walk into the professors office
and ask questions for an hour face to face either.

we haven't figured out how to make assessment scale. we haven't moved far from
the model we used for thousands of years, which is to have a student stand and
talk to their instructors/mentors, and their mentors to make a judgement. how
can you get a deep sense of a students capabilities this way, online?

I don't think it can't be done, I just don't think that MOOCs have really
tried, and my current cynical understanding is that they don't really want to
try. Platforms like edX, coursera, and OCW seem to stop at "you got video and
text what more you want", and stuff like minerva is using technology but
keeping the same scaling factor between instructors and students.

~~~
benbreen
This is spot on. In fact (having TAed a 400-student intro course once) I'm not
even sure if assessment scales properly in the larger brick and mortar
classes. The professor was using an iClicker for pseudo-pop quizzes at the
beginning of class but I noticed that a lot of students would simply give the
same answers as their friends next to them. Likewise for the short essay
questions in the final and midterm, they had created a massive Google Docs
database combining lecture notes which (while on some level showing admirable
initiative) also resulted in a number of identical (and, indeed, identically-
wrong) answers. I've never taught a MOOC but it seems to me that this sort of
hive-mind tendency would be magnified.

~~~
munin
> I'm not even sure if assessment scales properly in the larger brick and
> mortar classes

you're right, it totally doesn't. the system lives with it because the huge
intro/survey classes deal with such a superficial level of information that
you can measure it with MC/short answer.

upper level classes deal with it by increasing the staff/student ratio, either
by lowering the number of students or increasing the number of staff.

so the MOOC classes where the answers can't be graded by programs, MC or short
answer, become this hybrid of advanced material with intro level assessments.
I don't think this is to the students benefit.

I also think that the MOOC process overall has been corrupted by the same
force that corrupted universities, so I don't see the system as providing a
more pro-student alternative anytime soon. I don't know what would.

------
habitue
Since he makes a lot of weaker arguments, I'll focus on his strongest
argument:

> To think that someone [...] with only a high-school diploma [...] could
> motivate himself to complete a large number of MOOCs is naïve [...]

He comes up with some spurious statistics to support this assertion (about
MOOC completion rates), but it's much more likely the reason he believes this
is because of his experience as an educator.

I think this is a valid criticism. One important aspect of college is that you
have something on the line (loans), and you're placed into an environment
where the social context is "this is what we're doing now, we're completing
courses and learning." And this social context propels people who would
otherwise not have the self discipline to learn on their own.

The problem here is that the author treats this challenge as evidence that
college is the best solution. If MOOCs can't answer it, college will continue
to be dominant. Once I've spelled it out like that it should be obvious he's
assuming a false choice.

What other options could we come up with to solve this interesting problem
he's posed? MOOCs in their current iteration don't compel you to keep
learning. But rather than assume college is the best option by default, let's
keep thinking of other ways we could figure out how learning could be
encouraged systematically.

------
henrik_w
I like MOOCs, but I am using them as continuing education while working, not
as a replacement for college. For that purpose, it works quite well [1].
However, one problem is when you study a subject and get a bit stuck
(currently taking Pricing Options [2], and there are a few tricky parts so
far). Ideally I would like to ask questions and based on the answers continue
to ask questions until I understand. As it is now, it is pretty painful to try
to use the forums, and maybe get an answer. In person (or live video) with a
professor or TA would help a lot. But of course that doesn't scale well.

Also, the fact that the completion rate for MOOCs is very low doesn't mean
much. It is free to sign up, so many (including me) sign up only to check out
a course, or to just watch the lectures.

[1] [http://henrikwarne.com/2012/05/08/coursera-algorithms-
course...](http://henrikwarne.com/2012/05/08/coursera-algorithms-course/)

[2] [https://www.edx.org/course/v2/pricing-options-
mathematical-m...](https://www.edx.org/course/v2/pricing-options-mathematical-
models-caltechx-bem1105x)

~~~
tom_z
Henrik_w, those are some good points. The potential of MOOCs to deliver low
cost education has been hurt somewhat by poor design choices. Classes have
been simply "scaled up" by professors without much change to their structure.
Without physical classroom interactions, learning online is much more
difficult and needs a a collaborative support community to aid that process.

A few friends of mine from high school and I build a company called StudyCloud
that plays in the space. To solve the issue of lackluster collaboration and
low retention, our product builds a social community for each individual
course, having other students and teachers there for support and
encouragement. These individual social communities are integrated together for
the student into a complete course overview. This allows a student to keep
track of all their classes, seeing easily how well they're progressing at a
moment's notice. This at-a-glance functionality is coupled with extensive
notifications that help bring students back to the platform regularly to
engage with one another more frequently than might typically occur.

We've been working on StudyCloud for over a year now, with most of our growth
in the Midwest. We are working with a few universities on hybrid course design
to further improve not only the product but best practices for teachers. I
would be happy to share more if you interested.

www.mystudycloud.com

~~~
redfalcon6
Very interesting. I have been on a kick recently on how to really attack the
college market with a different offering, and had thought of some of these
same points. (Which you are executing on! Well done!)

My concept was to try to create a study abroad program, which combined a
concentrated "learning community," along with some MOOCs, and on-site
tutors/navigators. I think you could run this at a RADICALLY different price
point than most colleges, and therefore nip at the edges of the market.
Basically take a semester or two share from traditional colleges.

Of course, the challenge is in accrediting and ensuring credits would transfer
back to the college. But it just seems when colleges are charging $40k / year
tuition that there is some room to attack this on the edges. And the college
students then get the benefit of a fun study abroad which would be even
cheaper than home....

------
imgabe
This seems like a lot of cherry-picked data that ignores many other possible
explanations.

MOOCs may have a low completion rate, but if there's no cost to enter, and no
penalty for leaving, then it's easy to attract a lot of people who might have
only had a passing interest and decided the subject wasn't for them, or who
got busy with other things and stopped paying attention to the course (I'm
guilty of that). It's not really an accurate comparison to a class where
people have thousands of dollars invested in getting a grade.

Also, the fact that one other country has college tuition prices that are
approaching the US ($14,000 is still relatively low, even for many public
schools if we're talking out of state tuition) is not a good argument that US
schools are reasonably priced.

~~~
kaitai
Looking at free MOOCs only is indeed cherry-picking data. Instead, one
interesting example is remedial math at San Jose State University: a class
students paid for and needed for college, implemented by Udacity. It went so
poorly that the experiment was stopped [1]. The pass rates and test scores
were so low that the university couldn't, in conscience, continue.

There were some implementation problems, which have been addressed in a summer
2014 implementation [2]. It's worth noting that SJSU let 40% of students drop
the summer course, which really increased the pass rate!

[1] [http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_23688069/mooc-mashup-san-
jose-...](http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_23688069/mooc-mashup-san-jose-state-
university-udacity-experiment) [2]
[http://www.informationweek.com/software/mooc-math-
students-b...](http://www.informationweek.com/software/mooc-math-students-
beat-on-campus-pass-rate/d/d-id/1111335)?

~~~
ceejayoz
They tried a MOOC for _remedial_ classes? That's really baffling to me.

~~~
kaitai
Yes :( Unfortunately, a lot of politicians and administrators figure MOOCs are
best targeted at the classes that have vast herds of students coming through,
like remedial math and writing, rather than those little upper-level classes
for advanced students (that profs love to teach!). But you can see the
problem: the major predictor for success in a MOOC is study skills + maturity.
The major predictor for being in a remedial math class? The lack of effective
study skills. If these kids had great math self-teaching ability, they would
have taught themselves out of remedial math a while ago (like half the kids in
calculus).

------
kbrwn
The end of this article describes a "future situation" that is actually the
current situation exactly:

"Students with means of their own will have the option of attending a four-
year institution and obtaining all the benefits that come with it. Poorer
students will obtain their postsecondary education from MOOCs and their
credentials through badges."

How is this any different than what exists right now? The availability of
student loans allows low-income students to attend college but brings with it
a lot of the ills of MOOCs. Low completion rates being the most common
example.

~~~
copsarebastards
Why should anyone care about low completion rates for MOOCs?

~~~
kbrwn
Completion rates don't matter as much when the content is free. I've signed up
for 10+ of MOOC courses but only completed 2. I meant to just point out that
if you consider a low completion rate a negative factor than the current
system of easy debt for low income students has a similar problem.

------
falcolas
I don't think this future is implausible, but I think the MOOCs will not be
able to be free. There are costs associated with creating a good online
course, and those costs have to be deferred somehow.

Perhaps these MOOC developers will be able to attract patrons who will cover
the large up-front cost, and ads could cover the ongoing support, but one way
or another they won't be completely free.

As for whether recent highschool graduates will be able to complete a
traditional college degree worth of MOOC courses, it will depend on how much
they actually help those graduates get jobs. We went to college on the
insistance of our parents that it would improve our quality of life above
theirs, and the promises from colleges that a degree would make our careers.

For some of us, that was true. For others (particularly in recent years), not
so much. MOOC badges will have to offer more than just promises to justify the
time and money we put into them.

~~~
Lawtonfogle
There are costs assorted with creating good software as well but the community
have found ways to still make FOSS a viable reality. Is there any reason the
same methods can't be modified for MOOCs?

~~~
ghaff
There effectively is a model today where you can take the course for free but
you pay for a "verified certificate." The problem (as is often the case with
freemium) is that it's not clear what the value of a verified certificate is
for the vast majority of people. There may be scenarios such as employers
wanting to see proof of continuing education but they're the minority.

------
lateguy
I feel author somehow saying just badges for crediblity is wrong, it has to be
compared what we have today in university as credibility. It is just a pdf
certificate and a grade point with university name. It doesn't distinguishes
student very well.

With people moving towards online education there will be much better
education data gathering and much better way to present them. Kevin carey
pointed out this
[https://accredible.com/10000005](https://accredible.com/10000005) for
replacement of current education certificate for data gathering about student
learning and then using the data collected in better way for analyzing student
performance and for employablity. P.S (I work at accredible as SE)

------
jessaustin
I don't disagree with any of the other criticisms here, but seeing the
headline and source together was enough. It calls to mind a harness-maker
sneering "Horseless carriages? Nobody will ever want to drive those!" Who are
they trying to convince?

------
johnmarinelli
"To think that someone almost three decades younger, with only a high-school
diploma (or perhaps even less education) could motivate himself to complete a
large number of MOOCs is naïve, and is not borne out by the evidence."

Why is this naive? I think this attitude is prime evidence of the REAL problem
of the education system today - that we don't motivate younger people enough
to be curious. no amount of MOOCs will solve that, only good and devoted
teachers combined with a renewed curriculum will. MOOCs are great for subjects
involving computers and mathematics, but for subjects like sociology and
biology I would deign to argue that even traditional college is better
equipped.

