
Amazon Prime Air - wyclif
http://www.amazon.com/b?ref_=tsm_1_tw_s_amzn_mx3eqp&node=8037720011
======
jmduke
(Disclaimer: I work for Amazon, but not for anything related to this. This is
the first time I'm learning of Prime Air.)

I'm somewhat disheartened by the skepticism of a lot of comments from HN,
Reddit, and Twitter. Not stuff like "I wonder how they'll handle adverse
weather" (which I think is intellectually interesting) but stuff like "As soon
as one of these kills a dog it's done for". What merit is there in rooting for
failure for failure's sake? This feels like science fiction in the best way
possible.

I have no idea whether or not this will work, but I sure hope it does. It's
incredibly exciting.

~~~
esusatyo
Hacker News on Dropbox: Why would anyone want this? I can do this already with
my home PC, all I need to do is install package xyz and let it run in the
background. How does this handle duplicates, this is doomed to fail.

~~~
hnriot
Dropbox is for people that can't use rsync+git. For the unix-competent, it's
not particularly difficult and we managed for many years with the previous
tools, rsync+svn or even rsync+cvs

~~~
sanderjd
Yeah I really miss the good old days when I could take some pictures and all I
had to do to send them to my mom was provision a server with a static IP
address I could send her along with some links to rsync tutorials. Can't
believe Dropbox had to come around and make everything so much harder...

~~~
esusatyo
I'm not sure which one is sarcasm anymore.

------
kyro
This concept and forward thinking is of the type I make a conscious effort to
protect from skepticism and naysayers. Aside from any obvious or glaring
safety issues, ideas like this one, that teeter on the reality-joke line, are
the exact ones that bring about true disruption. And that's why I encourage
everyone around me to keep an open and forgiving mind, like you would with a
child.

Will Amazon Prime Air work? I don't know, but I hope so.

~~~
ruswick
Agreed. So far, I've seen nothing but specious fear-mongering and nonsensical
"what-if" arguments against this thing.

I can understand why people doubt the feasibility of drone delivery,
especially given the legal impediments to adoption. Frankly, I doubt that this
type of service will be practical within four years. What I can't understand
is why people openly reject the _idea_ of drones.

I don't see how Prime Air is any less safe or efficient than sending thousands
of five-ton metal boxes barreling down residential streets. I don't see why a
five-pound piece of plastic falling from the sky poses an appreciably greater
risk than a branch falling on you. I don't see how people can draw parallels
between small, low-altitude consumer drones and military UAVs. The level of
fear surrounding this announcement makes no sense.

The response to Prime Air goes far beyond skepticism. It's incoherent,
fanatical pessimism, and it's really dissapointing.

~~~
MWil
Law students (most) take a class called Criminal Procedure that heavily covers
4th, 5th, and (to a smaller extent) 6th amendment jurisprudence. I took it in
2011 when drones were really heavy in the news cycle. Our final exam was
solely on drones and how their adoption would effect/be effected by 4th
amendment considerations.

So with all that said, I really really hate the idea of drones. They get
places humans cannot. They're expected in places *humans cannot be. These
places are protected right now. Just putting drones in operation (especially
in the hands of the public) means every single bit of the public up to the
point of actually suctioning cup on your window is possibly fair game. Of
course, I hope that reasonable regulations are at play but I am pessimistic
about it. I think people will want their taco drones and their 30 min Amazon
delivery MORE than they want to hear how it might impact their privacy.

So it's not safety, it's not "oh no, they're like the military now". It's
purely the loss of private airspace that still remains and the potential to
abuse it audio/visual wise.

~~~
icambron
I can already buy a little quadcopter, attach a camera to it, and fly it
around; the relevant regulations here are just about commercial use, right?

That's actually a minor quibble with your argument, though. My real problem is
this: you're skeptical that they won't be regulated enough, so you want them
regulated out of existence? Your solution is a bit like saying, "well, the NSA
will be able to spy on our network connections, so let's just not have an
internet." If you want good tech policy, you need to _support good tech
policy_ , not just throw your hands up and say, "there could be adverse
consequences, so no new technology!" Otherwise we'll never get anywhere.

~~~
MWil
Yes, the relevant regulations are about commercial use which is COMPLETELY
backwards from a privacy standpoint.

To answer your question, no, I don't want drones to not exist and it would not
be worthwhile if I did. Since they obviously do and will continue to exist, we
should be thinking about the privacy considerations first with regards to how
you would restrict the government's use of drones and THEN go on to the
commercial considerations with those same restrictions in mind.

There's a little known set of 4th amendment jurisprudence attached to
technology that says something along the lines of "if the public can't
generally take advantage of the technology (have it be readily accessible to
them), neither can law enforcement when executing a 'search'" \- think super-
accurate heat sensors that can essentially x-ray the interior of homes,
etc...Well we are about to just hand an entire domain to them!

In short: law enforcement is salivating at the thought of commercial drone use
because they won't have any regulations applicable to them.

~~~
icambron
I assume you mean Kyllo, which I have a number of problems with (though I'm
somewhat reassured by some of Scalia's points in the majority opinion). But
maybe my imagination isn't good enough - what's the scary scenario with drones
that Kyllo makes legal?

------
scoot
[http://www.amazon.com/primeair](http://www.amazon.com/primeair)

 _When will I be able to choose Prime Air as a delivery option?_

 _A: We hope the FAA 's rules will be in place as early as sometime in 2015.
We will be ready at that time._

Sorry, but not a chance. I'm intimately familiar with the flight controller,
motor and batter technology behind multi-rotors, and I can state unequivocally
that this is just not ready for 'prime'-time (so-to-speak :)

There are multiple issues still to be addressed, not least of which is battery
energy density & power-to-weight ratio.

Battery recharge time - out for 15 mins flight? Recharge for 2 hours.

Flight time / payload - pick one. (20 mins with no payload is a stretch. Add
bigger batteries? Too much weight. Add bigger motors and props for more lift?
now you need bigger batteries...

No good in 'weather' of pretty much any kind.

Unstable with a failed motor / prop. Will fall out of the sky under numerous
failure scenarios.

The blades are lethal - can be shielded, but will add weight and reduce
efficiency.

GPS is unreliable at best, and is easily interfered with.

Current regulations in countries that have them typically require line-of-
sight operation; away from people and property (which rules out landing
outside someone's front door); no over-flight of persons; restrictions around
distances from the operator when taking off and landing. (And remember the
battery / weight issue? Go over a certain weight [~8KG], and the regulations
get even more onerous.)

Battery technology will improve, safety issues will be addressed, regulations
will change. But 2015? Jeff, I admire your optimism!

~~~
storborg
I'm also "intimately familiar" with multi rotors, and I don't think any of
these issues you've identified are valid, with the exception of regulations
(which Amazon admits won't happen).

> Battery recharge time - out for 15 mins flight? Recharge for 2 hours.

So? Swap out batteries. The whole drone doesn't have to be grounded for 2
hours.

> Flight time / payload - pick one. (20 mins with no payload is a stretch. Add
> bigger batteries? Too much weight. Add bigger motors and props for more
> lift? now you need bigger batteries...

That's wrong. There are many off the shelf platforms which can easily handle
5+ lb payloads for 20+ minute flights. Here's one:
[http://www.freeflysystems.com/products/cinestarHL.php](http://www.freeflysystems.com/products/cinestarHL.php)

> No good in 'weather' of pretty much any kind.

That's wrong, too. Multirotor flight speeds are 30+ knots. Modest wind is not
a big deal.

> Unstable with a failed motor / prop. Will fall out of the sky under numerous
> failure scenarios.

Most robust multirotor platforms have 8 or more motors/props, and can
trivially handle the failure of one or two. It's true that there are "numerous
failure scenarios" which will result in a UAV falling out of the sky, but the
same is true of passenger airliners: this will happen if the wings fall off.
To suggest that a UAV can't be made as reliable as a typical manned helicopter
is short-sighted.

> The blades are lethal - can be shielded, but will add weight and reduce
> efficiency.

This is only true in the absence of failsafe mechanisms: e.g. a device that
brakes the motor when below a certain altitude. Also, as you mentioned, they
can be shielded.

> GPS is unreliable at best, and is easily interfered with.

No, GPS is perfectly reliable "at best", and utterly nonfunctional at worst.
Fortunately, there are lots of alternatives for GPS.

> Current regulations in countries that have them typically require line-of-
> sight operation; away from people and property (which rules out landing
> outside someone's front door); no over-flight of persons; restrictions
> around distances from the operator when taking off and landing. (And
> remember the battery / weight issue? Go over a certain weight [~8KG], and
> the regulations get even more onerous.)

This is 100% valid. Regulations are a concern.

~~~
fosk
What are other good alternatives to GPS?

~~~
tcas
Inertial navigation systems[1] have been used for more years than GPS has
existed. Even now almost all military drones / rockets / ICBMs use very
precise inertial systems.

[1]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inertial_navigation_system](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inertial_navigation_system)

------
nh
The real surprising thing is that Amazon is accelerating the post industrial
age. The economy is growing but wages are stagnant. A demand for human labor
is declining while corporations are making massive profits. These drones are
an example where machines are replacing jobs that were once done by humans.

As we pull out of the recession in the US, the fastest growing job market is
the low wage/retail jobs. Walmart will have to match the technologies of
Amazon as they fight for market share. Leading to more and more automation of
human tasks. During this past thanksgiving there were worker strikes in some
Walmart stores for a living wage (~$15/hr). What happens to society when these
jobs are not even available?

The most interesting part of the 60 minutes interview was not the drones but
this:

Charlie Rose: Is Amazon ruthless in their pursuit of market share?

Jeff Bezos: The Internet is disrupting every media industry, Charlie, you
know, people can complain about that, but complaining is not a strategy. And
Amazon is not happening to book selling, the future is happening to book
selling.

~~~
brc
It's a common but incorrect assumption to think that replacing repetitive
human tasks with machines leads to wide-scale unemployment.

 _Of course_ the delivery person who is replaced by drones is out of a job
initially, but this doesn't doom everyone to unemployment. Higher productivity
through mechanisation leads to lower prices, which means more cash available
for other purchases, which leads to jobs growth in other areas and a rise in
living standards. There are always winners and losers in any technological
change, but the general quality of life for society as a whole improves when
menial repetitive tasks are replaced by automation.

There are more jobs around now than there was at the dawn of
industrialisation, and has been, every step of the way. This will continue to
be true, despite difficult adjustment periods for individuals and businesses
in effected industries. Stagnation is much worse than progress, and trying to
regulate away technological progress is even worse than that.

I think the major applications for this are in areas where people can't quite
imagine yet. Like the increase in internet speed and portable processors which
ran ahead of services to leverage it, this type of infrastructure may start by
delivering books, and end who-knows-where. Distributed aged-care with
medication and meals delivered in-home? Some bizarre physical-world words with
friends? The possibilities are quite exciting if it can be intelligently
standardized.

~~~
makomk
Higher productivity through mechanisation also leads to businesses being far
more capital-intensive and less reliant on humans, which means a large
proportion of the money coming in from those lower prices goes to members of
the capital owning class - who, in general, don't spend nearly as much of it -
which, in turn, means that spending power amongst the people who do actually
spend _will_ decrease faster than prices.

~~~
brc
Well, no, that's not what I am saying at all. The beneficiaries of lower
prices are the end customers, not the owners of the business. Most people live
on (relatively) fixed incomes - a gradual lowering of prices for things that
they buy simultaneously increases their quality of life by leaving a larger
share of income for other purchases.

This is easily tested by most people - inflation adjusted, owning a device
with the power of an iPhone is absurdly cheap by historical standards.

I would also argue that businesses are becoming less capital intensive in
general. Sure, specific types of business require multi-billion investments,
but many other businesses are launchable now with essentially 'zero down'.
That's a combination of automation allowing previously labor intensive tasks,
and of automation lowering the cost of capital goods. You can start a startup
now with just a single laptop and some open-source software, the capital
requirements are essentially nil. Ironically it is Amazon itself which carries
credit for some of this - by automating virtualised computing resources, it
has lowered the price of those resources and allowed more people to start
businesses.

I'm surprised I have to post that on HN, but it's true.

------
saryant
My personal theory is that Amazon hates being reliant on UPS and FedEx. I
can't see Bezos being thrilled that so much of his empire relies on the
Teamsters. Note that UPS's labor agreement with the Teamsters expires in the
next few years. That poses a big risk to Amazon's infrastructure if there's
labor unrest during the negotiation.

I've long suspected they were working towards a point where they could handle
the last mile in house—this development doesn't surprise me at all.

~~~
morgo
Totally agree. Even if this concept doesn't work perfectly, it puts pressure
on couriers to give Amazon the discounts they want.

Its kind of like how large enterprises use an Open Office support quote to
bring down the cost of their Microsoft office licensing.

------
wiremine
Just watched the 60 minutes segment: Bezos say they won't be ready until 2015
at the earliest, likely 2016. (Edit: as the commenter below pointed out, I
misheard the timeframe: is is 4-5 years out)

He said the range is 10 miles, which is good enough for most residential
areas. They are aiming for delivery in 30 minutes. The drones are autonomous:
you plug in the GPS coordinates and away they go.

The biggest challenge (again, according to Bezos) is the redundancy, "making
sure it doesn't land on people's heads."

My question is: why announce this now, 2 to 3 (or more) years out? Are they
gearing up to get governmental regulations?

~~~
tcohn
I think Bezos is wondering how society will respond. It is up to us. Some will
welcome this as an improvement in delivery efficiency and service. Some will
say it will make our cities crowded and noisy not only on the streets with
cars and trucks, but in the sky too.

I like my blue silent sky. I recall scenes of sci-fi worlds like the 5th
Element. I suggest we tax externalities. If you order by sky, you'll create
visual and noise pollution to many people, and you should pay a tax for this,
to be shared by the community as a whole.

My take is that Bezos wants to see how society will respond to this. A high
tax would kill his ROI, and he won't invest much in R&D. If we say "Nice! We
want this" he will double down.

~~~
stefan_kendall
You must live nowhere near anywhere. My sky is plenty filled with buildings,
airplanes, helicopters, and even the occasional hot air balloon.

You keep your taxes to yourself. I have a package that needs delivering in
under 30 minutes by drone.

~~~
wetmore
"needs"

------
lancewiggs
Responses that I have not yet seen in the comments.

1: These could deliver into my apartment on the nth floor by coming through an
open window, as well as the mentioned balconies and front yards or the roof.

2: We could not just set our delivery point up using a app on our smartphones
(GPS wtc), but those phones could also broadcast over the various radios to
the device and even use the camera to help the UAV navigate. Enter a few hints
about route and off we go.

3: The UAVs can be launched from delivery vans to save on the flight time from
the larger depot. Drive to a delivery area, deliver the big parcels by hand
while the little parcels are automatically delivered by UAVs operating from
the roof of the van.

4: The cost of UAVs will come down - significantly - so they may become semi-
disposable for the delivery company. In 2015 that may not be true, but by 2025
I can certainly see it.

5: The UAV's could, if they are set up with the right taxi-like business
model, be used by a variety of delivery actors, including individuals as well
as businesses. So after the Amazon delivery I use the drone to take a parcel
to the post office for delivery to an eBay buyer.

~~~
pbhjpbhj
The drones could hitch a lift on people's autonomous vehicles. Amazon would
give you a roof rack and pay you when it rides on; they can hook in to your
GPS and schedule to anticipate routing.

~~~
lancewiggs
Nice.

We all have windows - and many of those windows open. A basket that hangs
outside the window with a battery powered beacon is another option for
delivery. The baskets could even be secure and waterproof.

~~~
jaseg
Instead of a battery-powered beacon you would likely use fiducials [0].

The issue I see with delivery to windows is all the clutter that is commonly
found in front of windows such as power lines, tree branches etc. since that
cannot yet be easily detected with computer vision and inexpensive 3D sensors.

[0]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiduciary_marker](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiduciary_marker)

------
crusso
Apart from the Scifi-ness of having drones work well in the best of
conditions, the back-up infrastructure required to support bad conditions
would seem to make the whole venture unrealistic.

Let's say that a little drone could reliably carry a package to doorsteps 10
miles away. Let's assume that it can navigate past trees and power lines and
kite strings and so forth.

So Amazon builds up these service centers with hundreds of drones delivering
packages in a metro area to meet their delivery time commitments.

Then you get a few weeks of bad weather: regular daily thunderstorms, snow
storms, a great deal of gusty weather, etc.

Do the delivery time commitments have caveats for consistently bad weather?
Unless you live in California, you have to deal with days and days of rain or
other foul weather that will eliminate a drone's ability to fly safely, much
less be able to deliver a small package without damaging the contents.

When that happens, Amazon will need to maintain a fleet of trucks with drivers
to take over. Maintaining that capacity will deeply cut into the profit of
their business model.

~~~
toyg
It's just another option to add to the mix. Not everyone chooses next-day
delivery, not everyone will choose 30-min delivery; the classic delivery
infrastructure will likely remain in place. The service will just periodically
be disabled: "due to severe weather in your area, PrimeAir is currently not
available. Please check back later, or choose standard delivery."

~~~
crusso
It's still a question of capacity. Any drone deliveries that need to be made
will take away from other delivery capacity. Given that standard vehicle
delivery will be much more time consuming and much less parallelized than the
drone delivery, drone outages will place a thrashing level of load on standard
delivery unless a great deal of unutilized standard delivery capacity is kept
idle most of the time.

That costs money.

[edit: typo fixed]

~~~
toyg
That's more of a question for FedEx and UPS. Of course existing contracts with
Amazon will require tweaking, but I don't see how drone-outage periods will be
much different from other volume spikes.

------
RuggeroAltair
I think that a lot of comments here are missing a crucial point: in the next
few years unmanned vehicles are going to play a major role in most of the
transportation landscape, whereas this is for people or objects.

Amazon here is trying to play the same role that Google has been playing for a
long time with their self driving cars. They are setting a standard and
pushing for regulations and laws.

It is not that difficult to think that the future of unmanned vehicles won't
be as naive as people may think. There will probably be a combination of
different sets of vehicles that would go around for large distances and/or
sizes, and different vehicles covering smaller distances and/or sizes. They
can be used in series to optimize the traveling salesman problem in terms of
what's powering these vehicles.

It's not that different from thinking of an ant-like distribution system.

And not that different from the Google approach of crawling the web, then
crawling the actual world with google street view cars, eventually moving into
self driving cars. Except you'll also get lots of metadata with it, that can
be used and sold.

Amazon is now part of the game, moving the attention to drones and self flying
objects.

~~~
aeturnum
I disagree that they're making the same play as Google. Google has never
claimed they're going to make a self-driving car, or offer it as a service. As
far as I can tell with a few minutes of googling, they don't even have a home
page for the project. It's a research project and a tool to "push" the law in
the direction Google wants.

Amazon, on the other hand, is 100% offering a product. It has a name, and they
indicate a plan to, "enter commercial operations as soon as the necessary
regulations are in place." This is partially about getting into the game
early, but it's also focused on a product in a way that Google's car isn't.

~~~
RuggeroAltair
I don't think we disagree on that. I'm not talking about the product side of
things. I said and mean that Amazon is pushing for standards, regulations,
laws etc. also by showing the possible demand side.

The reason why Google doesn't have a product, can be for multiple reasons, for
example because they may (who knows) only want to create an Android OS-like
self driving system, not necessarily building the cars. It's the same they did
with smart phones.

If they want to dominate the car OS market, they might not need to present it
as a product at this stage.

They just need, as Amazon, to push it enough to gain momentum and be one of
the early players.

------
fragsworth
Brick-and-mortar stores are doomed. I can only see a few types of products
remaining in brick-and-mortars: Clothes that you want to try for size, fruits
and vegetables that you want to sample, and restaurants... any others?

~~~
pattisapu
bookstores, where one can browse more than the cover and a few pages

~~~
RaphiePS
What prevents a company from offering a time-limited preview of an ebook?

~~~
lclarkmichalek
There's still a fairly large difference between a time limited preview of an
ebook and a time limited preview of a book.

~~~
RaphiePS
What differences, would you say? Of course an ebook is a little less readable,
but other than that, I can't think of any major differences.

------
snogglethorpe
It doesn't seem like the battery density exists for anything except fairly
short distances with very small packages. For the vast majority of deliveries,
this could only be a "last mile" mechanism, with the bulk of each delivery
happening via more traditional transport. 30-minute delivery from the
warehouse? Not going to be possible for 99% of purchases, even those that are
under the weight limits.

Moreover, you can't just have hoardes of flying vehicles randomly over
populated areas (and if this was at all practical, every company and its dog
company would be trying to do the same thing), so you'd need fairly strict
regulations on where they actually fly, and a system for managing them (e.g.
limiting the number of flights by all companies). They'd probably need to do
things like limit the paths that could be followed, maybe above public roads
(which would reduce the delivery radius). Whatever happens, the ( _necessary_
, because it involves public safety and contention for a limited common
resource) regulation and government control is going to slow the process down,
probably a lot more than Amazon's timeline suggests...

Even if they could grind through all the problems, get government support, and
setup a system to do final delivery of very small purchases by air... is the
investment required to do all this worth it to be able to deliver a
_vanishingly_ small proportion of packages more quickly?

What this _really_ looks like is an unintentional leak of Amazon's next April
1st gag...

~~~
Plasmoid
Actually, contention for air space wouldn't be that bad.

Modern airplanes have a pressure transponder which announces your flight id
and the air pressure at your location. From which you can determine a
direction, id, and altitude.

Create an automated ATC, some simple separation rules (100' vertical, 500'
horizontal), and order that drones flying east are on odd multiples of 100',
westbound flights on even multiples. You know where thing is and where it's
going. Maybe add in some prohibited zones around airports or tall buildings
and you are pretty much done.

~~~
snogglethorpe
The thing is, if this idea proves viable, there are going to be (or at least
there will be demand for) many orders of magnitude more of these than there
are traditional types of air vehicles... And because of the very short range,
much of that will probably be in dense urban areas (so it won't be anything
like evenly distributed).

So... I dunno if traditional approaches to avoiding airspace contention will
work so well...

~~~
Plasmoid
Perhaps, but would the air traffic be any worse than road traffic?

Say you had 5 flight levels each direction, so 10 'levels' in all. Would we
have more than an order of magnitude more flight traffic than road traffic? I
would argue no.

~~~
chongli
_Would we have more than an order of magnitude more flight traffic than road
traffic? I would argue no._

We might. This sort of disruptive innovation could be staggering in scope. I
could imagine putting in an order for a weekly grocery bill and having dozens
of drones deliver the items from all over the place. Currently, we have an
infrastructure that assumes we'll ship myriad items to a centralized clearing
house (hub topology). It'd actually be far more efficient to eliminate this
redundant, single point of failure and build something more akin to a mesh
network. Items such as locally grown produce may even be shipped directly from
farm to doorstep.

------
siglesias
I wonder whether this might necessitate the creation of a kind of "landing
pad" with bluetooth LE beacons to signal to the approaching drone where to
deliver the goods, that and/or a Santa's Chimney-like chute (I'm thinking
apartment complexes) that can obviate the need for the drone to "land" at
human level.

One also marvels at the possibility for home-to-home delivery, say, for used
items, or the ability to have returned items "picked-up" by these drones. A
fascinating avenue.

------
kiddz
Why would they announce it now. . . let's see a day before Cyber Monday and my
guess is that 1) they are sincerely doing this, but 2) they are aware up the
inevitable PR uptick the day before the busiest online shopping event of the
year. Nice move to garner a lot a free attention that will result in greater
overall (non-drone-delivered) sales.

------
grey-area
Great idea, for small items. A few other companies are exploring this, but
with the funding from Amazon, and the scale Amazon delivers at, it could make
a lot of sense for them - they could actually make this a reality. I'd try
this out just to see the Octocopter coming in to land.

Weight will be a problem I guess, as many of the things Amazon delivers are
larger and would be difficult to carry on a drone unless it was a significant
size. So small items only, at least initially.

I did also wonder about landing spots - these things are going to need a
guaranteed flat spot to land, so that they are not damaged and can take off
again, but I guess with a smartphone the user could indicate their preferred
landing spot via GPS.

And of course there is an issue with airspace and regulation, which I guess
will be their biggest hurdle - flight paths over cities could get pretty busy
quite quickly, and you'd need some sort of one way system or sophisticated
traffic control to avoid collisions, so a bit of a headache for authorities to
coordinate, but these are all soluble problems.

~~~
sentenza
Oh man, I started reading about this 20 minutes ago, and now already have a
mental image of the landing platform that I'll install on the roof of my
house.

They probably didn't say anything about when this will come to rural Germany,
did they?

------
orenjacob
Has anyone calculated the energy usage of sending a 1kg package 10km alongside
100s of other packages on a diesel powered UPS truck vs sending it by itself,
hanging below a battery powered octacopter? How much more/less energy does the
octacopter consume per package?

~~~
markvdb
Rather calculate the diesel powered truck doing 80% of the distance to
delivery place, and the drones flying the last 20% of the distance from the
truck.

------
tcdent
Well, not a day goes by that I don't already hear multiple airplanes and even
more gas powered leaf blowers from my back yard.

I expect drones will increase that form of ambient noise in my neighborhood
substantially.

Those who live in high vehicle traffic areas may not notice a difference.

------
msantos
Waterstones, one of UK's biggest bookseller has just announced its response to
Amazon's Prime Air: O.W.L.S = Ornithological Waterstones Landing Service

[http://www.waterstones.com/blog/2013/12/introducing-o-w-
l-s/](http://www.waterstones.com/blog/2013/12/introducing-o-w-l-s/)

------
backprojection
Will there be pirate drones that fly around looting the Amazon drones?

~~~
stefan_kendall
Yes, just like there are pirate cars that drive around looting UPS trucks.

~~~
MichaelGG
I recall reading about shipments of Pentium (II?) processors being hijacked
from trucks. I believe some people were even killed. The value of a truckload
of new Intel processors is rather high though. Enough that someone may decide
the risk in an armed robbery is worth it.

------
sillysaurus2
A lot of people live in apartments. I assume they'll be excluded from this.

Also related: [http://tacocopter.com/](http://tacocopter.com/)

~~~
farnsworth
It would be great if it would drop packages on my balcony. Then I don't have
to be home but it's safe and I don't have to pick it up from the leasing
office when they open.

~~~
acchow
Safe? I'll send my drone to steal your balcony package seconds after Amazon
has left.

------
tlrobinson
The only way I could imagine this working in even moderately densely populated
areas is with some sort of landing pad. Maybe it's as simple as laying out a
~3' square cardboard pad with a QR code or some other fiducials, or maybe as
complex as an active beacon or GPS enabled pad.

Avoiding powerlines seems like a fairly tough problem as well. Are drone-sized
object sensors (ultrasonic? LIDAR?) accurate enough to see thin power lines?

------
brianbreslin
Let's take a strategic look at this. Its a shot across the bow at Google
Shopping Express, Ebay Now, InstaCart (to an extent), TaskRabbit (meh maybe),
and all the others focusing on the same day delivery business.

Its also a direct shot at Walmart, whose customers in non-dense cities all
have a store within 30 min drive of their location. Walmart isn't in the big
cities (in their normal fashion), walmart is suburbs. Target is suburbs.
Walgreens/CVS might worry about this too, as it could kill a bunch of impulse
or time sensitive shopping if amazon ran this 24/7.

Things to consider: \- what is the cost per drone? \- what is the cost to
operate? Fuel? are these fully autonomous?

This paired with self-driving cars is potentially shifting the dynamics of
delivery companies (imagine if the ups driver was just a guy in the truck, not
driving it). Or the truck had 2 delivery guys, neither one driving...

Anyway, I see this as a fascinating experiment.

Worth looking into as well: [http://matternet.us/](http://matternet.us/) this
has been around a while. I heard of it through singularity university people.

------
seiji
UAV quadcopters are kinda amazing and getting amazing-er by the year. (I spent
too long looking over [http://www.helipal.com](http://www.helipal.com) this
weekend.)

You can buy one for under $400 with auto-hover, GPS return-to-home, and built
in cameras (or a gopro gimble attachment). Sadly, they only get about 5 to 10
minutes of flight time.

~~~
makmanalp
The awesome part is, (and I'm pulling numbers out of my ass here) for a 10
dollar delivery fee, or maybe a 100 dollar subscription to prime air with an
average of ~10 items shipped), this thing would pay itself off within days.

I assume that the kind of quadcopter that could lift a few kg and had decent
flight time would probably run you 3-4k with today's tech, at consumer prices.
Even then, a fairly good investment. At bulk prices with 4 years in the future
tech, this thing would pay for itself in no time.

Hope they get the FAA on board!

------
pdknsk
I have two remarks or questions.

The person who receives the package doesn't have to (or cannot) sign for it
apparently.

How difficult is it to shoot down such a drone to get the loot, if you will.
Might become a sport for some folks.

~~~
toyg
Considering how signatures are mostly a farce (I routinely sign for my wife or
my neighbours, who do the same for me), that's not a big deal: you'll just
choose "classic" delivery via courier if you're really worried about that.

Interception is a real problem though, especially in high-crime areas. You
could reduce it with some sort of hardened container which can be opened only
with a certain code.

~~~
elithrar
> Interception is a real problem though, especially in high-crime areas. You
> could reduce it with some sort of hardened container which can be opened
> only with a certain code.

Any container that is sufficiently "hardened" enough to stop any trivial
access attempt would also be much heavier/larger (or have a smaller internal
volume) - which would require a larger drone or a shorter distance. And short
of carrying a safe, there's probably little you could do to prevent someone
from getting at the goods.

Interestingly enough, the country that is likely to allow the use of delivery
drones into regulations is also the country with the highest number of guns-
per-capita.

~~~
datacog
> Interestingly enough, the country that is likely to allow the use of
> delivery drones into regulations is also the country with the highest number
> of guns-per-capita. \- FAA roadmap mentioning Cargo transport via drones:
> [http://www.faa.gov/about/initiatives/uas/media/UAS_Roadmap_2...](http://www.faa.gov/about/initiatives/uas/media/UAS_Roadmap_2013.pdf).
> The correlation is absurd and doesnt make any sense.

------
TillE
Cool tech, but I question the practicality of it. This seems fraught with
problems that a human on a bike wouldn't have. They're also entirely
unsuitable for urban areas.

~~~
chad_oliver
No, they're not entirely unsuitable for urban areas. Instead, their
(relatively) short range means that they're unsuitable for anything except
urban areas.

If designed poorly, they would be very unsafe, but there are plenty of ways to
increase the safety. For example, notice that the drones have more than 4
rotors. This gives a bit of redundancy so that a motor can fail without
causing the drone to crash.

~~~
ams6110
Can't wait until the first time one shreds a customer's dog, (or face, child,
etc.) as it tries to deposit a package on her front porch.

~~~
dpcan
Why does this thing even have to land?

Can't it drop each package with a mini parachute from about roof-top level
with good accuracy? Or even 10ft, just above the height of most kids, dogs,
cars and adults.

~~~
cheapsteak
If we're talking about urban areas, and since most people in urban areas live
in highrises, where would it even land _on_?

I'm sure there's a solution, it's incredibly fun to think about.

edit: Maybe install a landing pad by the window? People are allowed to install
satelite receivers there right? Why not a small landing pad

~~~
RandallBrown
My apartment building has a large rooftop deck. It would be easy to set up a
package drop zone or something for the drones to use.

If the drones are _really_ good, I have a balcony they could easily land on to
deliver packages right to my place in a pretty secure way.

Also, given the timeframe (30 minutes), the drone could just text me to go
outside and I could pick it up on the sidewalk outside my apartment.

------
udkl
Why release this now ? Seems to be more of a marketing ploy to bump up prime
membership to compensate for the shrinking margins/revenue.

Highly interesting and forward thinking nonetheless !

~~~
rmoriz
People are probably sick of Black Friday by now and still need to buy holiday
presents. Excellent marketing timing. Kudos to Bezos.

------
mimighost
I think not only Amazon is investing in this. Some delivery companies in China
are already playing with drones for while:

[http://www.businessinsider.com/package-delivering-drones-
sta...](http://www.businessinsider.com/package-delivering-drones-start-trial-
runs-in-china-2013-9)

So why is this so surprising?

------
InclinedPlane
One point I'd like to make on this:

There's the obvious question, why bring up the subject now when they don't
even have the technology ready? The answer is easily revealed by the response:
to get over the giggle factor as early as possible. Right now much of the
commentary is about how ridiculous or silly this is, but that will fade with
exposure and with publicity of successes in testing.

There are lots of things that have the same problem. Legalized marijuana,
space tourism, reusable launch vehicles, manned mars missions, 3D printed
organs, etc. Often times it's as important to get over the giggle factor as it
is to build something that works. Personal computers and tablet computers ran
into the same problem, but once people stopped thinking of them as toys people
got down to the business of making practical use of them.

------
dakrisht
This is an awesome idea of course. It's a glimpse into the future.

I remember tweeting with Chris Anderson of 3D Robotics about a year ago about
autonomous package delivery from A > B. I'm sure Bezos and team started
nerding out on this concept years ago.

Eventually, "vehicles" the size of UPS trucks will be delivering packages
autonomously all over the world. This is definitely a glimpse into that day.

And it won't end at just packages, you're going to see food, produce,
perishables, medicine (bye bye pharmacy pickups) and many more products
delivered to the home via drone.

This is without a doubt the future.

However, like every awesome idea it comes with a boatload of challenges that
need to be addressed and I fear some will be extremely difficult if not
impossible to overcome.

Off the top of my head, I see a few issues with Amazon Prime Air, some will be
resolved, and some won't, but that's the beauty and uncertainty when taking on
rather innovative approaches to existing problems.

1\. The FAA situation. Drones are going to have _very_ restricted airspace
especially in populated metro areas, if the FAA grants them these privileges
at all. If you look at Los Angeles/SF/NYC/DC/Boston, you see airspace that is
so overcrowded that I just don't see how drones are going to be zipping around
here. BUT, most US cities are urban areas, so if we lose delivery to the dense
metropolis, this product could work very well. Just like you see in the video.

2\. Aside from airspace regulations in popular cities, you have building
density, apartments/condos that will make it tough to service (unless these
buildings have custom built "delivery stations" somewhere, and that's a cool
idea). So it's a glimpse into the replacement of the traditional mailbox. Now
that's cool.

3\. Package weight will certainly be a concern but Prime Air will still cover
an enormous amount of items from Amazon. And I believe Prime Air will allow
Amazon to actually expand their product catalog with previously-undeliverable
items via traditional freight (food, perishables, medicine, etc.)

4\. Humans. Humans are always a problem. You'll have kids/idiots trying to
steal and shoot these things down. This is a minor problem that won't
necessarily end, but people will get in trouble and they'll pay fines/etc.

5\. Safety. Safety is important, Amazon will do whatever it can to prevent
kids/adults from getting sliced by these blades but I think that this is
inevitable.

6\. Hardware failure. Sure, 4 rotors and redundancy. But we all know a few of
these things are going to drop out of the sky with a box of wrenches and slam
into someones car/face/house/bike/restaurant... That won't be good. But is it
even possible to ensure this doesn't happen? Boeing airplanes fall out of the
sky...

7\. Weather. Be in no doubt these drones will drop left and right, lose
course, altitude, etc. with sudden gusts of winds, environmental factors, etc.
They're getting better but it's physics at play here.

All in all there are plenty of challenges to an awesome and risky endeavor.

What I don't really understand is WHY. What's the net-gain for Amazon. Will
this ever fully replace UPS/USPS shipping for them? Maybe... But it will take
at least 20+ years.

I somewhat see this as an experiment for Bezos and company. The R&D and
hardware costs far exceed the pennies on the dollar they pay for UPS shipping.
But it has that COOL FACTOR to it. It smells like the future. Would you pay
extra for 30-minute delivery? Maybe a few times... I wonder about the utility
here...

~~~
Houshalter
>The FAA situation. Drones are going to have _very_ restricted airspace
especially in populated metro areas, if the FAA grants them these privileges
at all. If you look at Los Angeles/SF/NYC/DC/Boston, you see airspace that is
so overcrowded that I just don't see how drones are going to be zipping around
here.

How do you figure? Do you realize how big the sky is? For every square foot of
land there are tons of layers of airspace above it, and it's almost completely
unused except for a few tall buildings and a relatively small number of flying
vehicles (compared to what we manage to fit on the ground.)

Drones are fairly maneuverable and could be made with decent collision
avoidance and sensors.

~~~
xerophtye
Ummm.... I couldn't see that video (restrictions on work internet) but AFAIK
such small drones can fly up to a certain altitude. Sure you have an insanely
large amount of sky up their but can these machines access that?

~~~
Houshalter
Imagine how many of these could fit on a single flat road. Then imagine
stacking dozens of roads on top of that. Then imagine the roads are several
times wider because there isn't any property or buildings in the way up there
(with the exception of a few tall buildings in big cities.)

It will be a long, long, _long_ time before we run out of airspace. It isn't
the limiting resource at all.

~~~
xerophtye
I never doubted that we dont have enough of airspace, my question was can
these lightweight machines make proper use of all that open space? how high
can they fly? Because i am assuming these are relatively low-altitude
aircrafts.

------
rpedela
Here is a TED talk which discusses this technology, its cost, and how it is
already being used in Africa.

[http://www.ted.com/talks/andreas_raptopoulos_no_roads_there_...](http://www.ted.com/talks/andreas_raptopoulos_no_roads_there_s_a_drone_for_that.html)

~~~
fogleman
Thanks for the link, that was awesome. I think autonomous, helpful drones will
be in our future one way or another.

~~~
rpedela
Yep I agree.

------
shimon_e
We already have this in China. The SF Express has been testing these for
years. Just last year we got the drop off boxes that amazon has been
installing in 7-11s installed into our building. It's used for all package
deliveries not just amazon.

------
jcutrell
A possible solution for the location issues: why not have it deliver to a
predetermined booth-like location? Think: Redbox.

Of course, this would be much more valuable if it was set up as a open-source-
ish thing (where, for instance, an HOA could set up a "Amazon AirPad" for
free). But this would greatly reduce some of the problems otherwise inherent
in a delivery system like this, such as (but not limited to): Apartments (or
duplexes, for that matter), pet/child liabilities, cars, slightly-off
coordinates that result in your neighbor or your pool being the drop-off spot,
highly dense neighborhoods, highly wooded areas, no-doorstep apartments, etc.

------
mcphilip
One of my pet dogs growing up always chased the UPS truck (rural area). I
can't imagine what it would have done to delivery drones...

In a hypothetical situation where a delivery drone gets sniped by some kid
with a 22, what is Amazon's response?

~~~
psbp
Contact the police and send another.

~~~
jfb
"Amazon Fulfillment Center Alpha Bravo Six Six Ten, you are cleared hot pickle
-- repeat, cleared hot pickle. Good hunting."

~~~
psbp
It would be really cool if they sent a companion drone for high value items,
or maybe even a fleet. You know, for pictures, not artillery or anything..

------
ngoldbaum
Vernor Vinge described a similar rocket-based delivery system in his short
story "Fast Times at Fairmont High", which eventually became the novel
Rainbows End. Crazy to see this actually happening in the real world.

~~~
Flenser
That was the first thing that came to my mind. It would be interesting to know
if that was what inspired amazon or if there was some earlier source that
inspired both.

Edit:

Fast Times at Fairmont High was a reworking of an earlier short story
Synthetic Serendipity, which is available online:

[http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/networks/synthetic-
serend...](http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/networks/synthetic-serendipity)

> "But don't worry about us." Fred looked upward, somehow prayerful and smug
> at the same time. "'FedEx will provide, and just in time.'"

> "Jerry was looking upward, at the FedEx shipment falling toward his
> outstretched hands."

Vinge also has them doing things other than delivery:

> maintenance UAVs flitted like bats around the canyons, popping out nodes
> here and there.

------
mentos
Say you could navigate the package from the warehouse to a persons property,
how would you deliver the package while eliminating the risk of injury? My
thought would be to have the drone phone home so that a real human could
perform/oversee this last stage of delivery. In cities you could see if
delivering to a rooftop is feasible to avoid having to negotiate
sidewalks/people.

A lot of obstacles in the way here but I would love to see this succeed. I
envision a world where a table sized gas powered version of this could carry
more packages futher.

------
datacog
Pretty neat concept. But if the goal is to deliver within 30 minutes, I wonder
why does amazon need a drone? Domino's certainly dint need a drone to deliver
pizza's. Given the cost of research and manufacturing of the drone, I bet this
would be just a fancy R&D project. Plus dont forget the lack of accuracy the
drone would have, there has to be a manual interception thus questioning the
original concept itself. Musk is upto hyperloop, Bezos is upto drones; I think
the former one is far more realistic and needed.

~~~
randyrand
Who says amazon won't also deliver pizza?

~~~
datacog
thats not the point. The point being, there could be other alternatives which
could deliver in the same time and be actually developed faster without
waiting on FAA regulations to get approved

~~~
randyrand
My point was that maybe pizza (and by your extension most things) is better
delivered this way.

------
lemcoe9
I feel like this is the definition of "having too much money."

~~~
a3n
Thank you, that was the vague feeling I got when I saw it, you expressed my
feelings perfectly.

But I'm old and I'll be gone someday. Y'all have fun with it.

------
chuckp
The ire towards "drones" is quite puzzling to me, most technology came from an
initial military backing and soon this will be our daily lives.

Right now you can not legally fly a "drone" commercially, all flight by
multirotor UAS over US soil is classified as hobby, educational, or government
right now. That is where 2015 comes in, the FAA is suppose to make a ruling
dictating commercial flight regulations and processes.
([http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2012-02/under-
newly...](http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2012-02/under-newly-
authorized-airspace-rules-drones-will-fly-alongside-piloted-planes-2015))

Currently two vehicles have been certified for flight but they are in a ~20k
price range. The estimates on this vehicle are very reasonable for
technological advances in the next two years. The opensource community has
already created the software technology and a multirotor device of this size
could conceivably run for 30min especially with advances is battery and
motor/prop technologies.

Perhaps Amazon wants to attempt to shift America's focus on drones, and how
they can have positive effects on our lives. Sounds like a good plan
especially if they are able to provide emergency supplies to remote locations,
or just get us use to them assisting in daily activities.

Wonder what it costs to charge ~15000mah battery vs the driving cost.

------
lostsock
It's obviously not ever going on the same scale as Amazons service but there
is already something similar underway in Australia:
[http://www.smh.com.au/technology/sci-tech/push-for-
liftoff-o...](http://www.smh.com.au/technology/sci-tech/push-for-liftoff-on-
drone-deliveries-in-australia-20131014-2vixx.html)

Apparently we have very forward thinking laws in regards to UAVs

~~~
girvo
Any laws we have are forward thinking compared to our new Bikie laws. One step
forward for tech, two steps forward for the police state...

Sorry, I'm bitter still. My state is frustrating me.

------
eranation
I know they said it about the milkman, about the Ice delivery guy, about the
postman, the morse code telegram specialist, the travel agent and soon, the
bank clerk, and anything else brick and mortar. And I know I'm old fashioned
and sound like I'm against innovation and progress. (I'm not) But sadly all I
can think of is the unemployed delivery people this is going to replace

------
seshakiran
Guys, this is science fiction getting real and this is kick ass. This is
awesomeness. Kudos to JB. And I think this would work without having any big
issues. Reasons are:

1\. Amazon will wait for the FAA approval before deploying this . This means,
the max. weight a copter can carry at any given time would be limited. As some
one said, if AMZ starts shipping heavier packages beyond a certain limit there
is a risk that it might be dropped and causes injury or death.

2\. AMZ would not deliver it across cities. Pls. see the video. It's mentioned
that it would be within 30 mins of pressing buy button. This means the radius
of the delivery is controlled and monitored from either the fulfillment
centers or a central control center.

3\. Consider attaching a video camera for delivering the goods. It would also
record the whole delivery process for many aspects. It would have a visual
footage of who picked it up, whether it was delivered to the correct location
etc. This covers legal aspects as well.

4\. People would love to have this way of things delivered to them since they
would save a lot of time going to the store, spending on gas, waiting in lines
etc. oh..btw, this is good environment too. Less gas usage.

Now, the question is how would UPS, FedEx and USPS react to this? They would
still be delivering the goods via road to drone inaccessible locations. What
if the weather doesn't permit? Would not AMZ have a back up plan of delivering
only to the places where weather is not bad? Why would they send the drone
into a tornado effected area? Think my fellow HN readers. Think.

Now, the next aspect is security. Can someone spoof the GPS location and re-
route the packages? May be. If that's the case, the video recording would help
as mentioned earlier.

Walmart, you listening?

------
turar
FWIW, according to this article, Chinese e-retailer SFEXpress already tested
delivery by drones: [http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-
business/internatio...](http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-
business/international-business/in-china-online-retail-is-about-to-get-a-
whole-lot-bigger/article15688956/)

------
ChuckMcM
Do you get to keep the box? :-) That is a pretty bold vision for product
delivery. On the one hand we have "software eating the world" (everything is a
download) and on the other "hardware is cool again" (drone delivery). I
sometimes think though that this may become this generation's "jet pack."

~~~
enraged_camel
>>On the one hand we have "software eating the world" (everything is a
download) and on the other "hardware is cool again" (drone delivery).

The hardware in this case must be driven by incredibly complex software, both
on the drone and in the central HQ that controls the fleet. Without that
software, these things would be no different than regular RC quadcopters.

------
jordanthoms
This is awesome - It'll probably take someone like Amazon pushing things to
make this happen, and now the pressure is on the FAA to allow this (and figure
out how to regulate it).

Can't help but notice they announced this just before Cyber Monday, no doubt
it'll drive a lot of traffic - Bezos is a crafty one indeed.

------
blackdogie
I really don't see this coming before self drivinng cars/van will just drive
to your location and open up a hatch for you to collect your goods. Drones are
only good for short ranges, light products and not to dense populated
locations. Auto driving cars ars would be a hell of a lot more flexible.

------
msoad
Not a new idea. TacoCopter[1] had this idea as a ironic VC joke. It's amazing
to see this sort of things are becoming a reality.

Just wondering how much it will cost to be a member after all. Flying a
quadcopter is not cheap!

[1] [http://tacocopter.com/](http://tacocopter.com/)

~~~
backprojection
> Not a new idea.

Who cares? Why do people always feel compelled to make this kind of comment?

~~~
ajasmin
Why not?

TacoCopter sparked a lot of discussion about drone delivery just a while ago.
It's nice to be reminded of it, now.

It just goes to shows these ideas are "in the air" right now. In case you
weren't paying attention.

------
brownBananas
Hold on a second, what happens when some birds, winds, or malicious citizens
damage the drones? Does Amazon keep sending new ones?

How do the drones deliver to apartment buildings or any address that does not
have a lawn?

Would return service work the same way?

I love the product, but a little disappointed by the limited FAQ section.

~~~
toyg
I expect that, if the service is moderately successful, buildings will quickly
adapt somehow (roof landing pads, "drone flaps" etc).

I guess some of the answers related to actual Amazon policy will be clarified
whenever the service actually starts (i.e. 2015 at the least).

------
akulbe
It seems to me that if this is to seriously take off, it would require a
distribution center in every major city, at the very least.

If anyone can pull it off, I think Amazon can.

I wrote a term paper on them for my last class in school, based on the then -
predicted entry into grocery delivery.

I feel like Amazon is one of the few large companies that has been innovative
and has the possibility to be seriously disruptive to the economy.

Some of what was talked about... same-day delivery of groceries. They'd likely
have their own fleet. What does this mean for the existing big name grocers?
Same-day delivery of regular merchandise. What would this mean for UPS and/or
FedEx?

If I were a Mom & Pop shop, and I knew Amazon was coming to town, that would
make me lose sleep at night at least as much as Walmart, if not more.

------
evo_9
Isn't it more likely they'll use these drones inside their warehouses to fill
orders? Longterm maybe home delivery but they/Bezos have to be planning on
using this to process orders inside their warehouses.

so is this all misdirection, or really their longterm plan?

------
roel_v
So, this is the wave of the future. Now, how do I make money on this, apart
from buying Amazon stock or starting a drone company (which are going under in
droves, I should add)? Is this going to be a first-past-the-post thing? I
can't see how any other retailer will be able to compete with this, once they
start rolling it out, and assuming they won't be offering DDaaS (drone
delivery as a service - you heard it here first folks). I'm not sure how much
the marginal delivery costs for Amazon are going to be, but this might give
them a 10% (!) increased profit in an already very low-margin market? That
would _obliterate_ most competition.

------
latimer
There was a story a month or so ago about a company in Australia doing
something similar with textbooks:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6550765](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6550765)

------
dylandrop
My main concern is environmental impact. I'd be interested in an analysis of
the effects of producing these drones + environmental cost of powering them +
environmental cost of producing those yellow boxes vs. cost of delivery truck

------
richardlblair
To every person who thinks this won't work out...

...neither will your amazing photo sharing website.

------
gjmulhol
5-7 years out? I bet Bezos also has teleportation on the radar for sometime in
the 2200 timeframe. Why didn't he announce that?

All of this is nice, but until someone actually operationalizes this and
announces that I can actually have something delivered to my house in 30
minutes, then this means little. As it stands right now, I find Amazon's
promise of 2-day delivery to frequently fail (in the SF Bay Area, so a high
customer density) and find their non-existent customer support to be
frustrating. I would frankly be more excited if I could actually get my
packages in 2 days right now than over the future prospect of 30 minute
delivery.

------
oldmanjoe
To deal with the issues of landing Amazon Prime Air would best be served by
sending you a plastic "landing square" when you subscribe so that you
designate the place in your garden so that the Drone knows where to land and
you can keep an eye on it. With an iBeacon built into it it can guide the
drone landing and even use IR to warn the drone of nearby movement/people.
This would also serve as a signal to members of the public that it is a
potential landing zone (perhaps with a red flashing light when a drone is
making a land).

Amazon could even give you a discount if you allow the drone to recharge at
your landing point.

------
tokenadult
Good job on finding that URL. This is really cool to share with my Facebook
friends, and I have to like the tone of the ad copy that Amazon is preparing
on this page, which is still in testing, as it would appear.

~~~
pdknsk
> Good job on finding that URL.

[http://www.amazon.com/primeair](http://www.amazon.com/primeair)

------
juandopazo
If it's not a joke, the city of the future just got quite a bit noisier.

------
pmiller2
I didn't believe it was real until I saw this other submission:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6830583](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6830583)

------
gallerytungsten
A couple comments have addressed the issue of people potentially shooting down
the drones. I think this is very likely, as it appears even a decent slingshot
or arrow could take one down if the shooter was close enough.

But another scenario I didn't see mentioned is the potential for the drones to
be captured. Let's say a carder orders a delivery to an unoccupied house. When
the drone lands, the carder tosses a big net over the drone. Once it's
disabled, the control unit can disconnected and either replaced or re-
programmed.

------
cxviz
Expect deliveries by driverless cars before deliveries by drones

~~~
wavefunction
I think a drone is probably more realistic in the short term. A self-driving
car still has to get the package from the street to your porch, and while I'm
sure someone's working on a little robotic deliveryman, the drone combines
both transit and delivery in one package.

------
scrabble
Driverless cars. 3D printers. Unmanned drone deliveries. This is gearing up to
be the future I've always imagined. I couldn't be more excited and nervous.

------
bwilliams18
When I want to return something will a drone come by and pick up the return?
because that has A LOT of value.

Imagine being able to order something on amazon just to 'try it out', you get
an hour to make sure x part works, drone hangs around, and if it doesn't you
drop it back in the tupperware and the drone flies it back to the fulfillment
center and your card is never even charged

~~~
_s
I'm surprised I haven't seen more of this mentioned - especially for market
place sellers; just sold an item? there's a drone on it's way to collect it!

This will probably end up changing the inter-city courier / logistics greatly.

------
mgraczyk
This is the sort of thing that makes me very glad to be a part of the tech
industry. Reading this announcement literally made me giddy.

------
kevin818
Amazing, but scary, at the same time. Either way, kudos to the Amazon Team for
the idea, very interested to see how this will play out.

------
joering2
If you lookup the history you will learn that, for example, a I-highways in
the USA were build for military first, in order to quickly move people and
military around the states. Its only later on has been opened to the public.

I say the FAA will keep the air to police, fire departments, cia, fbi, etc,
before they open it up to private solutions. Most likely 10 years from now.

------
tqi
Any speculation on what the cost of delivery with this service will be (I'm
guessing very few people currently take advantage of the 1-day delivery
option, let alone same day, so I would guess this will need to be cheaper than
those to be commonplace)?

Also why is this better/faster/cheaper than just hiring someone to deliver
things on demand ala TaskRabbit?

------
javert
I don't understand how this would work without having distribution centers
that fully cover the nation to within 30 minutes, and having every item they
sell at every such center.

Even if you just want to cut UPS out of the last 30 minute radius and not
stock everything at every distribution center... that's still distribution
centers _everywhere._

~~~
akgerber
Wal-Mart and other big chains already has much of that infrastructure in
place.

~~~
javert
True. I suspect that most places with a fair number of people, even in semi-
rural or rural areas, in the US have a walmart within 30 minutes.

Since this service would defeat the purpose of Wal-Mart, I can't see Wal-Mart
supporing it, unless there were a merger with Amazon.

But the fact that there are so many Wal-Marts suggests that it might be
possible to build sufficient infrastructure that mostly covers the continental
US, for example.

------
trekky1700
I wonder how they'll stop this from being abused. From shooting them down with
pellet guns to capturing them as they land.

~~~
jonknee
Like everything else in a civilized country--laws and insurance. Does UPS have
a problem with drivers being ambushed or held hostage?

~~~
trekky1700
A driver and a truck is a lot larger and completely different from a smaller
autonomous device.

And apparently they do occasionally:
[http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2013/11/25/search-underway-
af...](http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2013/11/25/search-underway-after-ups-
driver-robbed-in-azusa/) [http://www.wjla.com/articles/2013/01/ups-driver-
robbed-polic...](http://www.wjla.com/articles/2013/01/ups-driver-robbed-
police-say-83641.html)
[http://www.ksdk.com/story/news/2013/10/20/3091049/](http://www.ksdk.com/story/news/2013/10/20/3091049/)
[http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/delco/Cops-UPS-driver-
kid...](http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/delco/Cops-UPS-driver-kidnapped-
robbed.html)

This just makes the robbings easier, as you don't have to deal with a human
driver. Much less risk involved, and lower prison sentences when you're not
threatening a human and just stealing property.

------
rottyguy
In the 60min piece, Bezos mentioned 85% of their sold products are 5lbs or
less... (wonder if that includes the digital stuff?)

~~~
rottyguy
Wouldn't it be something if the drones could wait around for a few mins to
allow you to inspect the items for return? :-)

------
qq66
One thing to note is that this isn't technologically far-fetched: military
UAVs can deliver multi-hundred-kilogram payloads today. Making this a reality
won't require unthinkable technology -- it will require steep reductions in
cost, which Amazon is very good at, and acceptance by regulators and the
public (anyone's guess).

------
adamnemecek
Dibs on Drone-Santa-Claus-as-a-service startup.

------
toyg
I wonder if this will impact their relationship with couriers.

I guess it's mostly been smooth sailing until now (as Amazon grew, so did
they), but this is an actual threat to their business model. Amazon would
still need a large amount of classic logistics, but couriers would lose the
_final mile_.

Courier drivers might want to consider a career change very soon.

------
spydum
[http://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazon-unveils-futuristic-
plan-d...](http://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazon-unveils-futuristic-plan-
delivery-by-drone/) So guess this just aired, didn't realize.. Here is link to
cbs 60 minutes.. Doesn't give much better info than amazons site though.

------
Xdes
Well if this becomes a thing then the NSA will be golden once everyone is
conditioned to drones flying all over the place.

------
jerryhuang100
Next on eBay: PrimeAir the Ripper, automatically targeting, scanning, RF
jamming, hijacking PrimeAir delivery drone for your next Macbook.

I mean, even Iranians or someone in the mid-east could hijack US drone(s), how
difficult would it be for a 15 yo in the US to figure out how to crack a Prime
Air in his/her backyard?

------
BigBalli
Ehm… you know it's just a marketing stunt for CyberMonday, right??
[http://amzn.to/1k6StXg](http://amzn.to/1k6StXg)

"Putting Prime Air into commercial use will take some number of years as we
advance the technology and wait for the necessary FAA rules and regulations."

------
abdullahisham
Domino’s trials new drone delivery system for pizzas... I think they didnt get
the kind of PR Amazon got...

[http://metro.co.uk/2013/06/05/dominos-trials-new-drone-
deliv...](http://metro.co.uk/2013/06/05/dominos-trials-new-drone-delivery-
system-for-pizzas-3829035/)

------
dharma1
we've been flying with drones (mainly octos) with heavy payloads for a while
now - [http://londonhelicam.co.uk](http://londonhelicam.co.uk) . RED Epics,
Phantom high speed cameras, a lot of expensive and heavy cameras.

The main thing is energy density - the current gen LiPo batteries only allow
for about 10-15 mins flight with a reasonable payload. Considering Amazon will
have to do a roundtrip, this will not give them a very long range.

The second thing is safety - we never fly above people. I don't think the
authorities will allow Amazon to fly over populated areas until the tech is
100% safe, which it isn't yet.

I think we're looking around the same time frame as with self driving electric
cars becoming commonplace. Many of the problems with battery life and safety
are shared. Maybe around 7 years?

~~~
benjamincburns
Energy density combined with mechanical efficiency. I could see something like
this being viable if they could find a way to make it a hyper-efficient VTOL
fixed-wing craft, but quad/hex/octo-copters from an efficiency standpoint are
really quite poor electricity-to-thrust converters.

------
cooc
Not so much people have heard of Matternet, a general delivery drones system.
The TED talk worth a watch:
[http://www.ted.com/talks/andreas_raptopoulos_no_roads_there_...](http://www.ted.com/talks/andreas_raptopoulos_no_roads_there_s_a_drone_for_that.html)

------
vkatluri
I guess we are getting closer and closer to the Pizza delivery technologies
described in Neal Stephenson's Snow Crash. Entire industries dedicated to
getting things into consumer's hands faster and faster. The "now" in "I want
it now" keeps getting shorter and shorter.

------
stanmancan
I really hope they can pull this off, I think it would be amazing. Not only
would it be great from a customer's stand point, but think about how much
better it would be for the environment. Millions of miles driven by delivery
trucks polluting the air being replaced by drones. Outstanding!

------
konaseer
what if someone shoots downs these drones for invasion of
privacy/trespassing/target shooting etc ?

~~~
wpietri
What if they do that with Amazon's current delivery vehicles? Same answer.

~~~
konaseer
they cant/dont encroach into your property

~~~
wpietri
I think your theory here must be the common-law view that if one owns
property, one owns it from the core of the earth up to the edge of space. But
that hasn't been true since the invention of the airplane:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_rights#United_States](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_rights#United_States)

------
RexM
I can't help but think of the Domino's video[1] from about 6 months ago. This
would be pretty cool, but I don't understand why everyone is so amazed by
this...

[1]
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDXuGQRpvs4](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDXuGQRpvs4)

------
infinitebattery
I see many potential problems to this- such as, what if the weather is very
bad (wind, rain, ect). Also, what if a thief catches the drone?

It's definitely an interesting concept. I love it. I doubt Amazon has it all
figured out but I also doubt they are foolish. Kudos to Amazon for being bold.

------
dlgeek
I knew Amazon was serious about Cloud Computing, but I didn't realize they
took it so literally...

------
matthiasb
Imagine the Amazon mothership flying above your city with hundreds of drones
doing the deliveries.

------
cwilson
Drone piracy. Think about it.

On one hand, totally awesome. On the other, how does Amazon defend against it?

Let the drone wars begin!

------
pirateking
I hope eventually drones will just deliver raw materials and resources for
product materialization (next generation manufacturing) at home or on-site,
using both commercial and open source product materialization specifications
distributed electronically.

------
nashequilibrium
The only concern i have is the propellers, can they be encased to avoid
accidental injury? I remember having this conversations when "taco copter"
made HN front page, i am assuming by now there is a way to make the propellers
collision safe.

------
jackcwang
Late to the discussion, but I'm surprised no one is discussing the non-
technical implications of drones. Even if safety/security/etc can be
guaranteed 100%, personally I wouldn't want my view of the sky to be littered
by drones.

------
pjan
While technologically fascinating, is it just me or are we creating a really
sad sad world, where we eliminate all human interaction and pollute or skies
with these ugly annoying things. I wholeheartedly hopes this fails as hard as
possible.

~~~
Nicholas_C
>where we eliminate all human interaction

As you post this to a message board on the Internet where hundreds
(thousands?) of people will read it. Only face-to-face human interaction is
decreasing, while total human interaction is increasing.

------
caiob
I think this is great news. It's innovation and will cause a even bigger
revolution in the retail business. Obviously, there's a lot to be considered
before actually putting it out there, but I believe this will be very
successful.

------
thesimpsons1022
I for one am awaiting the time that we can finally look up and see nothing but
thousands of drones hovering ahead, eclipsing the sky.

one question.

1\. whats to stop some hooligan from throwing a rock at one or standing on his
roof and catching one and stealing the package.

------
sheabo
Im working with UAV's in Afghanistan right now and just saw the video for
this. Im just wondering where i need to apply to get into this job as soon as
i can. Anyone know where i should try to contact or look for the job listings?

~~~
nabla9
Either they are going to be autonomous or this will be very expensive delivery
system. One man attending one package delivery for 20-30 minutes will not do.

If they have human involvement, it's just checking the drop point. In any
case, it will be extremely low paid job.

------
bendmorris
Adagio Tea has a similar idea with their Teacopter:
[http://www.adagio.com/teacopter/](http://www.adagio.com/teacopter/)

I have a little more confidence in Amazon being able to pull this off, though.

------
jroseattle
Not only do I hope this succeeds, but -- assuming this would be available for
third parties -- it would actually advance my wife's business plan immensely.
To use an overstated phrase, it would be a real game-changer.

------
leoc
UK bookseller Waterstones response:
[http://www.waterstones.com/blog/2013/12/introducing-o-w-
l-s/](http://www.waterstones.com/blog/2013/12/introducing-o-w-l-s/)

------
codex
Loud jumbo mosquitoes constantly buzzing around my neighborhood, ruining my
view and endangering my kids? I want 30 minute delivery, but not that badly. I
can plan ahead and exercise patience, or use a bike messenger.

------
ChikkaChiChi
As much as I love UAV technology, we live in a nanny state where even the
slightest risk of injury is outlawed to prevent citizen stupidity.

The second someone gets within three feet of a UAV rotor as it tries to land,
this gets banned.

------
nobrains
[http://www.ted.com/talks/andreas_raptopoulos_no_roads_there_...](http://www.ted.com/talks/andreas_raptopoulos_no_roads_there_s_a_drone_for_that.html)

------
mark12
This video explains how drone delivery will change the world,
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch5tts4B4FE](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch5tts4B4FE)

------
imahboob
Funny how an article on dinners killing kids across the world does not make
headlines, but drones delivering cheap Chinese made toys makes it too the
headlines of every major publication..

------
Aloha
If it were not December, I would assume this was an april fools joke.

------
joshaidan
Regarding the whole dog thing. I guess if you're ordering something by drone,
it will arrive within 30 minutes. So why not just keep the dog inside or in
the kennel for 30 minutes?

------
glord
haha awesome, sweet video and a great project. Its kind of like the refugee
camp pill delivery quad we prototyped at MHacks. 2 big questions: 1) how do
they handle motor failure, drones falling out of the sky? 2)How do they auto
land? Its too soon for some sort of real time obstacle avoidance / image
processing / auto landing without heavy lidar, and a lot of compute. What
about range? These drones only fly for max 20 minutes at 20mph so you'd have
to live within 3 ish miles.

------
csmajorfive
Are there any startups working on anti-piracy technology for drones? Imagine
criminals targeting high value deliveries and knocking these guys out of the
air with their own drones.

------
LeicaLatte
This vision for last mile of deliveries looks right. Looking forward to
buildings having "chute systems" that organize and automate deliveries to
individual recipients.

------
danielharan
I'm curious why all these delivery vehicles use helicopter designs instead of
blimps. Wouldn't the better safety and added flight time compensate for
increased drag?

------
kclay
So this explains why Amazon built a center not even 10mins away from my
house(Schertz,TX). If they are offering it here I'm going to order something
random just cause.

------
exit
there was a conspicuous display of human labor at the beginning

------
spydum
I can't tell, would the delivery drones be Autonomous or human piloted? This
definitely sounds too sci-fi to be true. Hard to imagine the cost associated
here too..

~~~
bryanl
The drones would be autonomous. According to the 60 Minutes piece, it sounds
like it is five years out. With a 10 mile radius, this could be an interesting
proposition.

~~~
spydum
10 mile radius? Where are you getting that figure? Also, I thought the
distribution centers were usually a bit farther out than most metro areas,
making that less practical?

~~~
bryanl
Bezos mentioned this in his 60 Minutes interview.

------
31reasons
Lets assume this technology took off! With thousands of drones flying in the
sky , the urban sky will look so ugly. Do we really need to use drone for
parcel delivery ?

------
alexmarcy
This seems like a cool technological problem to solve that is completely
unnecessary. Is waiting a 1-2 days to receive something in the mail that big
of a deal?

------
scovetta
I can't wait for the parody videos to show up on this.

------
jgalt212
NFW does this not run into all sorts of regulatory hurdles.

~~~
Anechoic
This will be a huge issue, even if Amazon gets this through the FAA, there are
going to be all kinds of local interests expressing their concerns. What
happens when one of these gets tied up in an overhead power lines? Did folks
living near the fulfillment centers (assuming the warehouse were there first)
sign up to live near a heliport, with dozens+ of aerial noise sources buzzing
off every day? What about trees, etc?

This looks cool, and Amazon has some smart folks so this will likely work
itself out over time, but there is going to be a lot to overcome.

------
jasonlotito
My first thought when reading this was Amazon selling this as a service to
local businesses as well. Allow them to use this to sell & deliver products.

------
MushCraze
All I can say is HAHAHAHAHA! Too much work for a single package. If ever this
will push through, I wonder how much a delivery would cost.

------
jpmatz
Sounds good to me, as far as they put some emergency delivery shortcuts in the
header: \- ironed shirt \- phone charger \- toilet paper

------
iaminsane
Some guys from Russia (CopterExpress) already tested that idea in Moscow
during this summer. They had negative experience as i know

------
wehadfun
Make these things fly 5 feet off the ground only over roads and they wont pose
any more danger then what already exist on roads.

------
locusm
I thought this would come but in the form of how military drones are flown
today - with a pilot sitting back at Amazon HQ.

------
avenger123
This is amazing.

I was reminded of the Back to the Future movies watching the video for this.

This looks to be the first steps towards that dream.

------
rafeed
Welcome to the future. This is incredible, although it looks like a page
Google would put up for April Fools.

------
AndrewDucker
I wonder how much they will charge for this - what's the efficiency like
compared to delivery vans?

------
prawn
Will we see private ownership of drones that are used to do pick-ups from
supermarkets, warehouses, etc?

------
init0
If this comes true, I shall order a book and get a bot for free [If you know
what I'm saying :D]

------
nivals
If it can handle picking up a return package that would mean never having to
go the UPS store again.

------
lanbird
I will shoot this one , if i see the drones. You can get a camera, a gps and a
hover for free!

------
soheil
I live in a high rise with a balcony can I just leave the door open and have
it come inside.

------
samograd
This is so awesome to see the robots coming and not having them being
programmed kill people.

Thanks Jeff.

------
ctdonath
Ok, so what's the cost of delivering a one pound payload one mile by drone?

------
jerius
They better start selling tacos as well, or I'm going to be disappointed.

------
ck2
April fools was months ago.

~~~
rmoriz
but Cyber Monday is today. Awesome marketing stunt to get free TV ads and
media coverage the day before.

~~~
ck2
"cyber monday" _is_ the april fools of marketing, there aren't actually any
good sales today, it is meant for people who feel left out from the
consumerism

But does Amazon even need marketing like this? I mean everyone price checks
Amazon, even especially while looking in a physical store.

~~~
rmoriz
I don't think there is a point where you don't try to get as much as marketing
as possible and Jeff Bezos is a very ambitious person who likes to be seen as
"crazy but very successful innovator". As far as I can see, Amazon has only
two major man-in-the-middle parties left: the parcel services and banks.

My guess is that Amazon tries to buy or build their own parcel service company
in areas where parcel services don't compete enough (= not cheap and fast
enough for Amazon).

This PrimeAir marketing stunt could therefor be a message to their current
parcel services to get faster and cheaper OR amazon will enter the market and
do it themselves.

------
verytrivial
This looks like a rather cheap way to "buy" drone components.

------
benbojangles
I want my items delivered by RC pulsejet. Go big, or go home.

------
espitia
the days when the comments added value to the topic are long gone...

* i know I'm being part of that but I usually never comment, I learn from you people! (or use to)

------
pocketstar
Shoot it out of the sky or spoof GPS, get free stuff!

------
cxviz
Markerting stunt

~~~
dredmorbius
Timed on the eve of Cyber Monday. Yathink?

Pretty damned obvious.

------
DonGateley
Sportsmen will have a blast with this.

------
sarreph
Three letters:

E.M.P.

~~~
andyhmltn
Unless you are proposing a nuclear bomb, most EMP devices wouldn't make any
difference when they are flying high in the sky at 20mph

------
jigneshg
incredible product and looking forward to start such facility in India

------
justplay
i guess they will charge heavy for this delivery.

------
roozbeh18
haha will the package they put it in be mine or should i return it if so how?

~~~
stefan_kendall
How do you return an amazon package left at your doorstep that isn't yours?
How often does this happen?

------
indus
I'm shorting UPS, FDX!

------
justplay
totally stunning.

------
antocv
If it works as it does, this would be a great way to hoard those small boxes
that come along with the package, and later resell them :D

~~~
easy_rider
or just resell the drone

------
loceng
I can imagine these will become a nuisance.

~~~
lacion
i have my own hobby UAV's and the more i see about prime air the more i think
its a joke.

