
Waymo Via - partingshots
https://waymo.com/waymo-via/
======
ckmiller
I competed in the DARPA Urban Challenge, back in 2007. While we were watching
the finalists trying to sort out the world's first fully-automated traffic
jam, the conversation turned to how easy it is to manipulate these vehicles.

Imagine a remote stretch of highway frequented by automated 18-wheelers. All
that's required to bring the truck to a screeching halt is a bedsheet and some
decent timing, at which point the vehicle has no way to prevent a robbery. The
truck could put in a remote distress call, but it will still be some time
before a human can get there. It's a new era for railroad heists!

We're no closer to solving this problem than in 2007; everybody is still
trying to manage the long tail of merely safe driving. Handling humans in
adversarial situations like the above is still completely off the map.

~~~
gretch
You can already do this to humans pretty much just as easily, I just need some
orange cones

Then what? You have 20 palettes of dog chew toys or asian pears....? Some of
the goods have serial/tracking numbers.

The reason people don't rob 18 wheelers or trains is because it's not a good
criminal enterprise

~~~
tachyonbeam
> Then what? You have 20 palettes of dog chew toys or asian pears....? Some of
> the goods have serial/tracking numbers.

Your comment made me laugh. Very true. Besides the fact that there is no black
market for 20 palettes of dog chew and asian pears, the other problem is that
unless you successfully steal a few highly valuable items, you would need one
or multiple trucks to carry what you've stolen from that semi. You probably
don't want to use the semi you just stopped, because it could have multiple
GPS trackers onboard.

If you knew that you were stopping a truck full of laptops, then maybe it
would be worth it somehow, but as you pointed out, laptops have serial
numbers... And then what, you load a few hundred laptops into a van, but your
van is now "burned". It's been photographed and you need to dump it somewhere,
further complicating your operation.

Then, I don't know, it seems to me like people just love to come up with
imaginary reasons why self-driving cars/trucks can't work. They seem to fail
to realize that, well, we can come up with even better safety measures. You
could make your automated truck very hard to open. It doesn't need to have a
lock that can be opened by a human with a physical key. It can have an
electronic lock inside the door, shielded behind a 5mm thick steel plate,
that's completely invisible from the outside.

You could also install a remote-controlled drone on top of the truck (value <
$1000). The truck has cameras all around that record continuously, and as soon
as the truck gets stopped (or even slightly before), it phones home. A remote
operator sees everything the cameras saw. The thieves waste precious time
opening and unloading the truck, and just when they're about to take off, the
remote controlled drone starts up and follows them around for as long as its
batteries will allow (~10-20 minutes), informing the authorities as to their
position.

If robberies of automated trucks became rampant, I'm pretty sure we could come
up with many ways to mitigate the problem. I mean, heck, we could even install
pepper sprayers around the truck. But the robbers can just wear full-face
masks, you say. Sure they can, but those masks aren't foolproof, and it's an
additional piece of logistics they need to deal with.

~~~
gwern
> Then, I don't know, it seems to me like people just love to come up with
> imaginary reasons why self-driving cars/trucks can't work.

The way I like to put it ([https://www.gwern.net/Complexity-vs-AI#technology-
forecastin...](https://www.gwern.net/Complexity-vs-AI#technology-forecasting-
errors-functional-fixedness-in-assuming-dependencies)) is: 'The critic asks
“can I think of any reason this system might not work?” and stops as soon as
they find one excuse, but the forecaster needs to ask, “can I think of any
system like this which could ever work?” and keep going.'

~~~
riversflow
I don’t think this is a fair characterization of adversarial attacks on AI.
People on _hacker news_ are simply forecasting the future of hacking. People
aren’t really saying ‘it won’t work, forget about it!’ they are simply
pointing out that historically technology and criminal enterprise have
followed a similar pattern to the garter snake and the rough skinned newt[1].
The more sophisticated deterrents evolve, the more clever adversarial
strategies become.

[1] [https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/how-a-deadly-
camping-t...](https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/how-a-deadly-camping-trip-
revealed-an-arms-race-between-snakes-and-newts)

~~~
gwern
> The more sophisticated deterrents evolve, the more clever adversarial
> strategies become.

And yet, not clever enough to be so successful as to stop automation, or
economic development, or increasing global wealth, or...

------
Pfhreak
If Waymo is successful, there are potentially massive impacts to the
population of the US. Trucking is a major industry.

The Luddites weren't mad about the advancement of technology, they didn't
destroy looms out of religious or anti-technological ideals. Many of them were
skilled loom operators. They were squeezed out of their jobs by the race to
the bottom, and they were angry that there wasn't any consideration for the
paradigm shift they were experiencing.

If Waymo turns trucking into an automated business (or even just reduces the
number of humans needed to haul cargo), we could be in for a similar
situation. I wonder what Waymo is doing to help support the existing drivers,
regulating how we should care for the many millions of humans this could
impact, etc.

I believe automated vehicles will someday be safer and more desirable, but we
need to ensure that they aren't also the villains in the disenfranchisement of
millions of people.

~~~
paxys
These concerns are always overblown. The switch to autonomous vehicles isn't
happening overnight. It'll be a generational change, and the current drivers
will simply retire. If there's a young kid today who is dreaming of growing up
and becoming a truck driver - yeah he's in trouble.

~~~
wpietri
Depends on how fast it happens. Long-haul trucking is the most easily
automated driving, and it has the strongest financial incentive. The lifespan
of a semi truck is ~15 years, while the career of a trucker will be 40 years.
Even if 2/3rds of truckers retire before automation hurts them, that still
would leave us with more than a million long-term unemployed.

~~~
judge2020
I imagine last-mile driving on regular roads might be as big a hurdle here as
it is for parcel delivery.

~~~
wpietri
Only if they automate it. But they don't have to. They could have local
drivers rendezvous with long-haul trucks as they get close to destination
cities. That would still let them cut their labor costs by 90%.

------
markstos
As a bike/ped advocate, I believe self-driving cars will ultimately be safer
than humans. Yesterday I was nearly hit crossing street twice: once by an
inattentive driver and once by an intentionally reckless speeder.

Oh the other hand, my brother has done a fair amount of truck driving and I'm
aware it's a common job in the US.

Maybe now that Bloomberg has dropped out he get together with Yang and use his
billions to start providing a basic income to displaced truck drivers?

~~~
MuffinFlavored
> use his billions to start providing a basic income to displaced truck
> drivers?

Are there no other viable options to "truck drivers being replaced by
automation" than basic income? I've read a lot of pushback about basic income
online.

~~~
ska
I don't know the answer, but one problem is that truck driving is already
often a plan "B" (or "C", or ...), in that it provided a practical home for
workers displaced from other industries. Often one they didn't have to move to
get.

This has difficult implications if you are looking for things these folks can
do instead of trucking.

------
predictmktegirl
With how much money everyone is spending, wouldn't it just be cheaper to build
a private cross-country interstate where only AI drivers are allowed. Let
humans drive the trucks to this interstate then let the AI take over. It seems
like almost all the edge cases would be solved if you just got rid of other
human drivers and let the vehicles network with one another.

~~~
dcgudeman
When first reading this question I thought it was an obvious "no", but I
looked into it's surprisingly close.

Total cost of interstate highway system: $128.9 billion [1].

Total invested in self driving technology as of 2017: $80 billion [2].

[1]
[https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/interstate/faq.cfm#question6](https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/interstate/faq.cfm#question6)

[2] [https://www.brookings.edu/research/gauging-investment-in-
sel...](https://www.brookings.edu/research/gauging-investment-in-self-driving-
cars/)

~~~
dntbnmpls
> Total cost of interstate highway system: $128.9 billion [1].

That's in 1991. So with inflation, it would be $244 billion today. Also, I
suspect the $128.9 billion figure itself was not inflation adjusted.

> Total invested in self driving technology as of 2017: $80 billion [2].

Wow, that's a lot more than I expected. But you have to keep in mind that once
self driving is "solved", it will work on all highways around the world. If
you think about how much it cost to build all the highways around the world,
it's way past the trillion dollar mark.

------
mushufasa
There's a rideshare company called Via. Is this intentionally designed to take
away their SEO?? I'd be surprised if there isn't a trademark challenge for
this, they're a competitor with Waymo.

~~~
bratawurst
It is the two-thousand-year old word for “road”, and an English _preposition_.

Anyone who picked it as a trademark for anything knew what they were getting
themselves into.

~~~
positr0n
That's not how trademark law works though. Just because apples are a common,
20 million year old fruit doesn't mean Apple can't trademark the brand Apple
in relation to computers and personal electronics.

~~~
dumbfoundded
Trademarks matter in context a lot. An Apple branded computer is a lot
stronger than an Apple branded apple.

They choose a brand name bordering on descriptive. If it's descriptive, ie
"Great Computer Co.", it's pretty weak. It'll be tough to own "Via" for
anything in transportation.

~~~
samatman
That would be like owning the trademark "General Electric" and selling
electrical equipment...

~~~
dumbfoundded
Well, General Electric predates many of the Supreme Court rulings that
establish American trademark law.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Supreme_...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Supreme_Court_trademark_case_law)

------
lolc
> No matter what you’re transporting or where it’s headed, Waymo Via will have
> you covered.

Lumber haulage, on forest tracks, in winter?

Snark aside, I'll be really impressed when they manage to get any service
going. But that page doesn't offer anything to convince me.

~~~
ttul
Lumber hauling off road may actually be one of the easier applications because
the road is usually dedicated to trucking. Logging trucks already assume they
can blast along at full speed because if you use a logging road, you’re
supposed to radio your position via CB to ensure the trucks know where you are
and don’t hit you.

~~~
thedance
Sigh. Forest roads are absolutely not dedicated to logging, they are
frequently used by hikers, backpackers, cyclists, and equestrians, and just
people driving to a picnic spot. At least in America working forests are also
public lands.

~~~
ttul
This is true, but nonetheless you’re supposed to carry a CB. On Canadian
logging roads, this is not something they take lightly - at least on the
signage!

------
VectorLock
Does a self-driving truck need a sleeper cab? Is the sleeper compartment
filled with equipment?

~~~
trenning
For long haul you'd still want someone riding in the cab who can do basic
maint I think, plus off loading the truck a lot of the times is the duty of
the driver. Some companies advertise 'never tarp again!' because tarping your
load on flatbeds is the driver's responsibility. Also for in-transit maint
airlines need repair, trailer power needs to be checked especially for
reefers. I'm not sure about otr truckers but for ltl the driver is offloading
trailer.

I can see the training and responsibilities shift as things become more
automated, but for what a driver costs, I can't see them getting rid of an
incab person for otr trips which leave the city. The response time and costs
for fixing minor maint like a broken air line would be crazy. Also someone
gotta fill those tanks up.

~~~
nostrademons
Why would you have the driver ride along for the long-haul, rather than have
the truck drive autonomously between cities and then pick up a driver once it
gets to the destination metro area for last-mile/unloading/maintenance?

The bulk of the time (= labor costs) from trucking is on the interstates, and
as an added perk, this would allow truckers to work 9-5 and stay close to
their families rather than being on the road all the time.

------
mkchoi212
From the placement of the LIDARs, I wonder how they solved the problem of
being able to look in the truck's blind spot. Or do they just attach a camera
on the back of the container every time they switch containers??

------
coral-snake
Copy nit:

> We’re currently testing our fleet of trucks in California and Arizona, and
> we’ll soon expand to Texas and New Mexico in the near future.

"soon <thing> in the near future" is a weird structure. It's repeating itself,
which either comes across as poorly constructed or _really_ emphasizing. I
doubt it is the latter....but if it were, I'd expect waymo to announce
Texas/NM support within a few weeks. (Which begs the question of "why publish
this blog now, instead of in 1-3 weeks when Texas/NM support launches?")

------
briefcomment
Would be awesome if they could make these electric.

------
chrisco255
Are these semis truly driverless or does the testing that Waymo is conducting
still require staff to monitor the drive? I want to parse through the hype
here.

Fully automated, point-to-point, driverless semis seem far off, as Hotz of
Comma.ai was pointing out. Am I wrong on this assumption?

~~~
wolrah
> Are these semis truly driverless or does the testing that Waymo is
> conducting still require staff to monitor the drive?

I would assume they're planning to follow a similar trajectory to their
passenger vehicles.

There are almost certainly human monitors on the trucks that are running right
now, but the long term goal is to be driverless.

> Fully automated, point-to-point, driverless semis seem far off, as Hotz of
> Comma.ai was pointing out. Am I wrong on this assumption?

I think fully automated ___arbitrary_ __point-to-point anything is a long way
off at best and potentially impossible. Being able to handle any situation,
including those that often give human drivers trouble, seems like it very
likely could be a "hard AI" problem to me

I think that shrinking the problem space to a fixed route makes things a lot
simpler, especially for deliveries that aren't extremely time critical where
the vehicle could safely pull off if things got questionable. Think about
something like a load of cars being shipped from Detroit to Denver.

Even if the autonomous trucks are limited to interstate-class highways, it
could work like Turnpike Triples do here in Ohio where the autonomous truck
could handle the interstate part and then drop the trailer(s) in a transfer
lot located right at the exit. Human drivers could then pick them up from
there for the local portion of the haul. That seems like it'd be a win-win,
the companies get their loads able to drive any distance with no time limits
while the drivers get a nice local loop where they're home every night.

------
trhway
anybody knows - is that new slim sensor package a major upgrade to the
set/quality of sensors or just a re-packaging? They've only recently appeared
in MV, so i haven't been able to get a good look yet :) It is interesting that
it appeared on the wave of doubling of the Waymo staff in 1 year plus major
outside investment and all those new announcements. It makes one wonder
whether they've got major improvements or are only gearing toward it and/or
just preparing to expand the operations for one final push across the finish
line.

------
throwaway55554
I wonder how well it navigates weight stations.

What happens if it fails compliance? How will they tell the truck to park?

------
trenning
Does Phoenix have laws that make them more attractive for testing or just
location preference?

~~~
mikeyouse
Arizona basically threw their citizens to the wolves with a 2015 self-driving
car law that allowed anything and everything to go (you wouldn't even have to
register your cars as self-driving for a period). This attracted tons of firms
to test their cars in a lax regulatory environment but since the famous Uber
death and a number of self-driving accidents, they have tightened the rules
somewhat. I suspect they're still looser than average and there's some inertia
from everyone setting up shop there originally.

From the original press release:

> _" Part of what makes Arizona an ideal place for Uber and other companies to
> test autonomous vehicle technology is that there are no special permits or
> licensing required," the ADOT release said. "In Arizona, autonomous vehicles
> have the same registration requirements as any other vehicle, and nothing in
> state law prevents testing autonomous vehicles."_

Article with latest updates: [https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/maricopa-
county-sheriff...](https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/maricopa-county-
sheriff-election-arpaio-penzone-sheridan-2020-11446082)

~~~
darawk
Thrown their citizens to the wolves and caused all of one death, and no other
problems to speak of? Seems like they made a great call to me.

~~~
rleahy22
Yeah cause screw that person who died.

~~~
ebiester
Arizona allows drivers over 80, and I'd trust Waymo over the average
octogenarian driving.

~~~
thedance
Arizona also allows people under 30 to drive, and every age group under 30 has
a much higher accident rate than 80+. People under the age of 18 have
quadruple the accident rate of people aged 80. The reason people incorrectly
believe that octogenarians are bad drivers is they have a tendency to die in
even minor accidents.

~~~
JoeAltmaier
I think folks think 80+ drivers are bad, is they drive conservatively and
carefully. Its annoying to 20-something drivers who want to race around and
take chances.

{not an 80+ driver}

------
Rebelgecko
Are these pictures just renderings or actual things that exist?

~~~
goldenchrome
They're real. I've seen them around the Bay Area.

~~~
foota
I'm surprised that I hadn't seen leaks about this, if they were visible in
public.

~~~
thedance
I've been wondering for years why nobody mentions this. I saw them on the road
in Sunnyvale in 2018. Maybe people assume they are just regular trucks used to
transport Waymo cars or something.

~~~
paxys
Maybe it was actually a self driving truck transporting a self driving car.

~~~
thedance
Well I did find this 2017 article so I guess they have been covered a bit.

[https://techcrunch.com/2017/06/27/these-are-the-
autonomous-t...](https://techcrunch.com/2017/06/27/these-are-the-autonomous-
trucks-that-googles-waymo-is-testing/)

------
stefan_
Just from looking at it there seem to be obvious sensor dead zones,
particularly behind it.

~~~
olex
Less than with a human driver, who can't see anything immediately in front and
partially to the sides of the cab as well.

------
ccktlmazeltov
Andrew Yang was right.

------
mdszy
>and we’ll soon expand to Texas and New Mexico in the near future

pedantic but, as opposed to soon expanding in the far future? A little
redundant.

~~~
ageyfman
I think they mean Texas soon, and New Mexico in the near future. Maybe better
to have written:

and we'll soon expand to Texas, and New Mexico in the near future

------
elicash
Edit: wrong story!

~~~
asdfasgasdgasdg
You're commenting on the wrong story. You meant to click on the Uber story but
this one is about waymo.

------
Uhhrrr
Are they selling this? If not, why waste effort making a page for it?

~~~
cryptoz
You see HN comments all the time telling startups to put up a page before
their product is ready. It's super common advice. Here are a few offhand
reasons I can suggest it's not a waste even if the product is not for sale.

Marketing. Lead times for delivery contracts are probably long. Expanding your
marketing, making your target audience aware of the product ahead of time, is
useful. It makes future sales cycles easier, as your potential customers may
already know about your new product.

Hype. Self-driving cars and trucks already have lots of hype, but not usually
for the big 18wheeler delivery style. Waymo may need to increase not just
awareness but also excitement.

Testing for product-market fit. While a purchaser won't make a decision based
on this page alone, Waymo can make some decisions and learn some things based
on people's reactions to this.

I could keep going, there are thousands of reasons that making a page for a
product or service not yet for sale can be a good idea and not a waste.

------
justicezyx
Everyone (Pony.ai started trucking as well) is converging to trucking as the
canonical use cases. Let's see how this affect the existing self-driving
firms.

~~~
umeshunni
In hindsight, trucking seems on the more obvious usecase for autonomous
vehicles rather than daily commutes or ridesharing.

1\. Most time spent and miles driven are on freeways rather than city streets.
Last mile can still be done via human drivers meeting at an off-freeway ramp
hub.

2\. The cost and availability of labor is a significant damper on trucking.
Remember during the oil boom in Alberta, Canada, how truckers were making six-
figures and higher due to the high demand.

3\. Humans get tired, can't drive for more than 8 hours due to legal
restrictions and safety concerns. These are problem that machines can solve.

4\. (Mostly) don't have to deal with pedestrians, bicycles, bad weather and
other complexities. If there's a snowstorm, trucks can just do what they do
now, wait it out at a truck stop.

~~~
ska
> In hindsight

In foresight too. This has been part of the conversation since the very
beginning; pointing out that the most likely initial targets for "real"
commercial use at scale was long haul trucking, with people for either end.
Usually predicated by heavy machinery in places like mines, where variants are
already done.

