
"Make sure we’re winning" - aaronbrethorst
http://www.marco.org/2012/02/27/make-sure-we-are-winning
======
dkulchenko
The Android tablet situation today seems awfully similar to the Android phone
situation a bit over two years ago.

Remember 2009? iOS was ahead by a wide margin. The HTC Hero had just been
released and Android was in that "this is cool, but could go either way"
period. I remember considering buying the Hero but holding back, unsure
whether the platform would take off.

It did. I don't see any reason why we won't see the same effect with the
tablet market. It's just a matter of time.

~~~
MaxGabriel
But _what_ was that effect? If you don't determine the causality of Android
phones' success, then its hard to apply it to Android tablets. For example,
John Gruber speculated today that the reason Android phones have been
successful is that when people go to a carrier retail store to get a phone,
they get handed an Android (not because they want an Android). Thus, the
Android tablet market won't act similarly.

Now, you might disagree with Gruber. That's perfectly reasonable. But his post
is illustrative: if you can't state more clearly _why_ Android phones have
been successful, you can't state with confidence the same effect will apply to
tablets.

[1]<http://daringfireball.net/linked/2012/02/27/android-tablets>

~~~
dman
Choice -

a)Phone with keyboard

b)One that will allow you to transfer music without a hefty itunes install

c)Phone with a large screen

d)Clamshell form factor

e)Slider form factor

f)Network effect - android phones are being sold in more places by a larger
number of manufacturers. This has an effect in developing countries.

g) Network effect #2 - Till the Iphone arrived on Verizon there were some
customers who had no choice but to go Android because what good is an Iphone
when you know your home gets lousy coverage from AT&T. Ditto for places where
Sprint or T-Mobile have a better network. The mobile network is not completely
commoditised - given a particular area usually there is a single network
company that provides perceptibly better coverage

h)Rate of change - something new is always launching which keeps the Android
hype machine going

~~~
MaxGabriel
Sure, but that only reinforces my point. If android phones sell because they
have a large form factor or a physical keyboard, I can hardly see how that
means Android tablets are going to take off. Maybe you're listing those things
because you dont think the success of android phone will apply to tablets?

I'm not convinced that android tablets won't, but it's fallacious to say they
will because the phones did, without identifying why the cause will apply to
both.

~~~
dman
I was merely trying to illustrate that there is more to android than customers
being fleeced at brick and mortar stores. As for why Android tablets might
have a chance -

a) Part of what made the iPhone and the iPod touch such tough devices to
compete against was the constraints imposed by the mobile form factor. Down at
600 Mhz on a 4 inch screen software efficiency and well designed software
matter a lot more than on a 10 inch screen with a 1.6 Gig dual core chip with
a large battery.

b) Form factors - Unless a smaller Ipad comes in.

c) Tablets are largely media consumption devices - either webpages, videos,
music, pdfs etc. I dont reach out to my tablet the way I reach out to my phone
to be my data connected interface in the real world. I switch it on when I
have some time available and I would like to consume some media. At this point
I find it easier to consume media on a Android device than I do on an iOS
device ( dont need to transcode every single video out there ) and
transferring files to the device is easy even on linux. Actually it would be
interesting to hear from others if there are differences in app usage patterns
between an ipad and an iphone of this is just a personal quirk on my part.

d) 4G - Unless Apple jumps onboard. I forgot to mention this on my earlier
post - I use my phone as a data modem all the time and once you are used to 4G
speeds, its really hard to go back to 3G.

~~~
halostatue
a) Everything that I've heard about the various Android tablets suggests that
despite being more "powerful" in absolute terms suggests that there's still
sluggishness in a lot of user interaction. That's anecdotal, though. I would
argue that well-designed software matters as much on a 10-inch screen as is
does on a 3 1/2-inch screen. You can't simply scale a 3 1/2-inch UI to a
10-inch display.

b) This is the only real advantage to Android tablets in the real world, but
smaller tablets are what you claim in (c): they're consumption devices.

c) Your use of tablets is as a media consumption device. That's not how the
iPad is used (heard about Photoshop Touch?). It's also not necessary to
transcode videos if you use tools like AirVideo.

d) Apple will use "4G" (that is, LTE) when the economics (price, availability,
and effect on battery life) make sense, just as they did with 3G. Personally,
I'll take a little slower speed now for more battery life.

Given what you've posted, I'd suggest stepping back a bit from your
assumptions: they're very geek-oriented. Just because you have a lot of video
you'd have to transcode doesn't mean that others do; just because you use your
phone as a data modem all the time doesn't mean that others do.

I'm quite often surprised at how people use their phones, and I don't think
that the iPhone is the right choice for everyone. We as geeks need to start
listening to how other people want their technology want to work for them.

~~~
dman
Could you give your version of why people buy Android devices ?

~~~
halostatue
Honestly? I'm not sure, especially when it comes to the tablets.

There are the obvious reasons for phones:

\- Alice doesn't like Apple devices (whether those reasons are valid or
prejudice doesn't matter). Phones _are_ as much about personal preference as
technical quality.

\- Bob doesn't want to change carriers, and the only smartphones his carrier
has are Android devices.

\- Charlie just wants a phone and wants the cheapest device available. Until
the 3GS was made available for $0 on contract, iPhones _always_ cost more than
$0 up front.

\- Denise wants the cheapest phone off-contract. This is usually going to be
an Android device.

\- Eric is a specs junkie and buys things based on specs. He has to have the
fastest, biggest, most capacious thing.

\- Fran has been convinced over the years that specs matter, but she doesn't
have the technical knowledge to be able to tell the difference between specs
that matter and specs that don't. She's also the one who will buy a 15
megapixel pocket camera because she's been told time and again that megapixels
matter.

\- Gene genuinely prefers products by {HTC,Samsung,Motorola}. See the
discussion about Alice.

\- Harriet goes into the store and asks the salesperson what she should buy.
The salesperson (Ian) directs her to his choice in phone—which might be based
on the vig he gets, not on any particular benefit of the phone to the
consumer. Ian may also have any of the reasons noted above, or he might listen
to the customer's needs.

For tablets, the carriers don't matter. Price might matter, but most Android
devices aren't doing so well on the matter of price: the top tier tablets are
as much or more than the iPad, and the bottom tier Android tablets tend to be
crap. The only exceptions to the bottom tier "tending to be crap" appear to be
the Kindle Fire, Kobo Vox, and B&N Nook—and those aren't counted as "real"
Android tablets in any case.

Personally, I'd only recommend an Android phone if there weren't any iPhones
or WP7 phones on a person's carrier—and I'd seriously suggest changing
carriers if they could reasonably do so. I can't think of a single reason that
I'd _ever_ recommend an Android tablet (or a Playbook) other than _possibly_
the Vox, Fire, or Nook (and even there I'd make sure that the user really
wanted a tablet and not just a reader, in which case I'd recommend an eink
version). I keep watching and hoping that someone comes up with a good tablet
that gives Apple some competition—but it isn't there yet, and I don't see
anything happening in 2012 to change that.

------
GavinB
_I honestly have no idea what Google could meaningfully do about their tablet
problems._

Here's my simple suggestion: make Android Market gift cards. iTunes gift cards
are HUGE sellers and have become a standard gift, especially for people you
don't know well.

Someone with an Android Market gift card will be motivated to figure out how
to use the market and will get used to the idea of paying for apps. To me, the
lack of a gift card shows a lack of commitment to the Market ecosystem.

~~~
ctide
You really have to back that up with something substantial. I can't see how
any logical person would make the connection that android market gift cards
being available would suddenly cause people to start buying android tablets.
The android tablet problems are far more fundamental than 'not being motivated
to figure out how to use the market.'

~~~
cstejerean
I'm guessing here about a possible connection, although it's certainly not
sudden (nor guaranteed to work):

Android Market gift cards => more money being spent buying apps => more
incentive for developers to write apps => more great apps => more incentive to
buy an Android Tablet.

------
latch
To me there's parallel's here to Windows Phone (and Microsoft in general).
Positive reviews keep coming in, the company makes aggressive forecasts, yet
the phone doesn't sell. There's a disconnect between what Microsoft thinks and
what's actually happening. I'd use the exact same word as Marco and say that
it seems that Microsoft hopes to _will_ the product to succeed (and,
admittedly, the Nokia deal might just do that).

It's dangerous to be disillusioned because you never correct the problem. In
Microsoft's case, it seems largely driven by a lack of vision and serious
branding issues. I don't know what the deal with Google is, but they might
simply believe in their own greatness too much at this point.

There are countless examples of not realizing how bad your products are, but
GM and RIM are probably the most dramatic to me.

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bsphil
To me it's mainly a tablet dilemma. Phones are pocket-sized and pack the same
features, laptops are bigger and are far more functional and productive. "Just
carry a keyboard around with you in case!" Well then why have a tablet at all?

I can't help but shake the feeling that tablets are just expensive toys with
value only in the dewy eyes of Apple fans.

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wyclif
"More importantly, what _can_ Google do?"

That really goes a bit too far. Oh dear, oh dear, you can almost hear the
handwringing going on in Mountain View, because Google are _worried_ (!) about
iOS!

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gringomorcego
I'm waiting for the chrome tablet + notebook redux.

