
Sensors detect rise in nuclear particles on Baltic Sea - BerislavLopac
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN23X2TN
======
Torkel
Now, this is probably nothing. The sensors are doing their thing and from time
to time there is a spike. On the other hand, this is how Chernobyl first was
reported...

For more radiation horror pease read about the ”Goiânia accident”:
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goiânia_accident](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goiânia_accident)
(Learned about it recently and wow. What a story.)

~~~
georgecmu
Or this:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kramatorsk_radiological_accide...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kramatorsk_radiological_accident)

In 1989, a small capsule containing highly radioactive caesium-137 was found
inside the concrete wall of an apartment building, with a surface gamma
radiation exposure dose rate of 1800 R/year.

The source, originally a part of a radiation level gauge, was lost in the
Karansky quarry. The gravel from the quarry was used in construction. The
cesium capsule ended up in the concrete panel of Apartment 85 of Building 7 on
Gvardeytsev Kantemirovtsev Street, between apartments 85 and 52.

Over 9 years, two families lived in Apartment 85. A child's bed was located
directly next to the wall containing the capsule. By the time the capsule was
discovered, 4 residents of the building had died from leukemia and 17 more had
received varying doses of radiation. The accident was detected only after the
residents requested that the level of radiation be measured in the apartment
by a health physicist. Part of the wall was removed and sent to the Institute
for Nuclear Research (NASU), where the cesium capsule was removed and disposed
of.

The total number of deaths is alternately reported as 2, 4 (3 children and one
adult), or 6 (4 children and 2 adults).

~~~
gambiting
It looks like China(and potentially other places) are willing to accept
incredibly dangerous(and expensive to recycle) material and melt it into their
main steel supply. After all, cobalt diluted into a supply of steel is
harmless, right?

[https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/radioactive-metal-
tiss...](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/radioactive-metal-tissue-box-
holder-bed-bath-beyond-pulled-
cobalt-60/1977257/#:~:text=Cobalt%2D60%2C%20a%20man%2D,ray%2C%20said%20state%20health%20officials).

I would really like to know how much of a problem is it, how much of global
steel supply is tainted. Can we be buying cars and other items made with steel
that's contaminated?

~~~
IfOnlyYouKnew
Back when the US was still interested in nuclear non-proliferation, they
sponsored (together with the EU) the installation of radiation detection
equipment at borders and other chokepoints, mostly in poorer countries.

These are fixed installations, monitoring mostly truck traffic 24/7, so their
effectiveness doesn't depend on available manpower or current interest.
Eastern Europe from Poland to the -stans has a lot of them, because former
soviet republics had a lot of radioactive material lying around that was
suddenly less important and even less guarded after the Cold War.

(Scientists were also suddenly out of work, and feared to be receptive to
corruption. Fun fact: George Soros spent dozens of millions of his own money
to empty a bunch of nuclear physicists in the 90s).

The point being: if it were a widespread problem, it would definitely be
noticed.

~~~
fludlight
How, exactly, does one “empty” a person?

~~~
xerox13ster
Psychologically abuse them for months or years, place impossible to meet
expectations in front of them and tell them that any attempt to meet them is
wrong before they've even started to make an effort. Let them be open and
vulnerable with you and punish them for it, then later demand they be open and
vulnerable and only randomly punish them for doing so. Oh and the entire time
you are putting them through this, trivialize their emotions and show them
that they're wrong for having them.

That should be a good start.

------
Mugwort
Do you think it might be related to this event? (linked below _) I 'm going to
make a guess, that there might have been a nuclear detonation. It probably
wasn't a test. This seems to be an accident. Not all weapons are accounted
for, e.g. there a American hydrogen bombs lost in Spain (I know... it sounds
crazy but look it up.). Could there have been a bomb laying around someone in
a place everyone forgot existed maybe some forgotten relic from the Soviet
day?

_ A GLOBAL MAGNETIC ANOMALY: On June 23rd, Earth’s quiet magnetic field was
unexpectedly disturbed by a wave of magnetism that rippled around much of the
globe. There was no solar storm or geomagnetic storm to cause the disturbance.
So what was it?

[https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/06/25/weird-out-of-
nowhere-...](https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/06/25/weird-out-of-nowhere-
something-just-rocked-earths-magnetic-field/)

~~~
cowboysauce
Almost certainly not. A nuclear detonation would also produce noticeable
seismic effects as well as release iodine-131, which was not detected.

~~~
etimberg
[https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2020/06/various-
re...](https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2020/06/various-reactor-
related-isotopes-measured-over-scandinavia-and-svalbard) reports that Iodine
131 was measured in Norway during the week of June 2-8.

~~~
guerrilla
Ok, but that's two weeks off from this detection.

------
godelski
Since everyone is saying Russia, I just want to include a map of reactor
locations. It _may_ be Russia, but there are quite a few reactors in the area.

[https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e9/%D0%90%D...](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e9/%D0%90%D0%AD%D0%A1_%D0%95%D0%B2%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BF%D1%8B.png)

~~~
matthewdgreen
An unreported release of radionuclides from a Western European reactor would
be much more surprising.

~~~
legulere
In Germany they tried to use Chernobyl to hide a reactor accident
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/THTR-300](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/THTR-300)

~~~
redis_mlc
Thanks for the link, it's fascinating:

> some radioactive dust was released to the environment. This happened just a
> couple of days after the Chernobyl disaster. The operators played down the
> incident, which caused a loss of confidence in the regulatory authorities.

Radiactive dust is not a small problem, it's fatal if inhaled. Skin can stop a
lot of radiation, but dust in the lungs is a worst-case scenario.

> THTR-300 was only in full service for 423 days

It was dismantled after only 4(!) operating calendar years because of rising
costs and lack of faith in the regulation process. Of course, the government
is on the hook for the overruns. What a disaster.

Oh, exactly the same things the HN nuclear apologists gloss over.

The challenge in the US is that most reactors have their operating permits
rubber-stamped to extend 20 additional years. It means they're active much
longer than designed, inviting corrosion and brittleness problems, and the
operator can avoid paying for the decommissioning "until later," when it's
somebody else's problem, usually the tax payer.

Hence why nuclear reactors need to be stopped before construction even begins.

------
vilius
On the SE edge of the marked area Belarus is building a power plant. It is
scheduled to go online July 2020 [1]. Can it be that fuel loading took place
and somehow it got out and wind blew the particles towards east? (similar
direction as in Chernobyl's case)

Pure speculation, but I'm Lithuanian and I'm concerned about a foreign country
building a power plant 45km from my capital. CTBTO not disclosing their guess
about the source makes me think it's a sensitive geopolitical matter. I just
hope nothing serious has happened, but you never know with 2020.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astravets_Nuclear_Power_Plant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astravets_Nuclear_Power_Plant)

------
sradman
I understand the political reason for not naming the reactors/nation-states
most likely responsible for the release but I don't understand the lack of
context. Why wasn't short-lived iodine-131 detected along with the
caesium-134, caesium-137 and ruthenium-103? How do the measured levels of the
long-lived caesium/ruthenium isotopes compare to known events like Fukushima?
How do these measured levels compare to known nuclear weapon tests?

I'm worried about the geopolitical implications, not the global health
implications.

~~~
cowboysauce
The release likely happened during fuel reprocessing. Since fuel is left to
cool for at least several months before reprocessing, there’s essentially no
I-131 left at that point.

~~~
sradman
How does the spent fuel get aerosolized and into the atmosphere? Some of the
more recent comments link to a site that detected iodine-131 in Norway. Vented
hydrogen/steam from partially uncovered fuel rods (e.g. Three Mile Island,
Fukushima) in an active boiling water reactor is historically the most likely
source (I think) but iodine-131 should be abundant. The same principle should
apply to any nuclear powered submarine or ship. Other commenters point out
that Russia has nuclear powered missiles and torpedoes that emit radiation. I
expect the CTBTO to be able to categorize the nature of each radiation source
but maybe that type of analysis takes time.

~~~
cowboysauce
>How does the spent fuel get aerosolized and into the atmosphere?

I'm not an expert, but fuel reprocessing is generally done is an aqueous
state. The widely used PUREX process, for example, starts with dissolving the
spent fuel in nitric acid. Splashing or boiling the liquids involved will
cause the formation of aerosols. In particular, concentrated nitric acid tends
to react with things quite vigorously, generating a lot of heat. The process
also uses flammable liquids like kerosene and hydrazine.

Some radioisotopes also have compounds that are volatile. Ruthenium, in
particular can form Ruthenium Tetroxide which boils at only 40C.

------
rurban
To those saying it's nothing: Lookup the historical data and compare.
Chernobyl caused 0.1 mSv/h in radiation in Sweden, this incident caused 0.18
mSv/h in Helsinki. Only two short spikes over one week, Chernobyl was over two
weeks, but certainly not harmless. These are deadly poisons.
[https://www.stralsakerhetsmyndigheten.se/contentassets/66f4f...](https://www.stralsakerhetsmyndigheten.se/contentassets/66f4f029351d4baea989543f24414795/198612-chernobyl
---its-impact-on-sweden)

It's either one of the old Chernobyl-like pressure water reactors in Tallin or
St Petersburg. Really interesting is also why the control commission in Vienna
is not allowed to call them out.

~~~
ProblemFactory
> old Chernobyl-like pressure water reactors in Tallin or St Petersburg

You must be confusing Tallinn with some other city - Estonia does not and has
not had any nuclear power plants.

The map covers Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Russia. Estonia and Latvia
have no nuclear power or weapons programs, and the first four are EU countries
where staying silent about an incident would be very unlikely. That leaves
Russia.

Interestingly enough the possible source area includes the Arkhangelsk naval
base, where the Russian nuclear submarine fleet is stationed. An incident
there may explain the lack of information.

~~~
catalogia
I think Arkhangelsk being involved seems likely. The Russian ship "Akademik
Aleksandrov" aka _Project 20183_ was apparently in that area recently[1], and
seems obviously related to Poseidon[2]. If the source of the radiation were a
Poseidon, that would certainly explain the secrecy.

As for claims of the fission products coming from a "civil source", I don't
think enough is known about Poseidon's reactors to rule that out. I could be
wrong, but as far as I've read the details of that reactor are up in the air
(besides being small, obviously.)

[1]
[https://twitter.com/FrankBottema/status/1276930424170844162](https://twitter.com/FrankBottema/status/1276930424170844162)

[2] [http://www.hisutton.com/Akademik-
Aleksandrov.html](http://www.hisutton.com/Akademik-Aleksandrov.html)

------
aaron695
Russia, damaged fuel rod.

[https://www.rivm.nl/nieuws/radioactieve-stoffen-
gedetecteerd...](https://www.rivm.nl/nieuws/radioactieve-stoffen-gedetecteerd-
in-lucht-boven-noord-
europa?_ga=2.21439288.204026084.1593171260-1689041124.1593171260)

21st century and the current top comment on HN is it's a random spike. Even
though the article says it's not. This shouldn't be hard people.

~~~
guerrilla
This doesn't say that it was a damaged fuel rod, only that that is a
possibility and that it has been discovered to be the cause of similar
readings previously.

~~~
aaron695
I'm not sure what more you want exactly? What are you suggesting it could be?

You have the data from multiple agencies, what fits?

I'm happy for alternatives, but multiple agencies say it's civilian and
Russia. I want to leave this crazy, it's weapons and it's machine reading
malfunctions threads.

So given the data what are you saying it could be?

This is why the comment section exists, to work towards to better
understanding what is going on. Unless you are from Russia trying to sow
doubt, you have to give a plausible alternative that fits the data. Saying
it's possible it's something else is just sowing disinformation.

~~~
guerrilla
> I'm not sure what more you want exactly? What are you suggesting it could
> be?

Nothing. I'm pointing out the agency did not phrase it as strongly as you did
for people who can't or don't want to read the article.

> This is why the comment section exists, to work towards to better
> understanding what is going on. Unless you are from Russia trying to sow
> doubt, you have to give a plausible alternative that fits the data. Saying
> it's possible it's something else is just sowing disinformation.

I'm no expert and not capable of judging whether people commenting know what
they're talking about or not. All I see from official sources is that experts
are saying that a leak from Western Russia is a likely possibility. I can wait
until more concrete information comes out to make a judgement.

------
Smooth-Weather
Something weird is that from 21:50 the 24 of June, the weather captors in the
area reported a temperature of 60°C.

[https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-
meteo/temperatures.php...](https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-
meteo/temperatures.php?archive=1&heure=21&jour=24&mois=06&annee=2020&region=eur2)

~~~
fearingreprisal
It might be due to a local wildfire.

[https://www.bbc.com/weather/features/53014423](https://www.bbc.com/weather/features/53014423)

~~~
leighfuu
That seems much more likely

------
highenergystar
Could this be from the test of the nuclear powered hypersonic missile that
Russia is developing [0]? Those things aren't designed to 'land' no pun
intended

[0]
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/9M730_Burevestnik](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/9M730_Burevestnik)

~~~
catalogia
My first guess is their nuclear powered torpedo, 'Poseidon', aka STATUS-6, or
Kanyon:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status-6_Oceanic_Multipurpose_...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status-6_Oceanic_Multipurpose_System)

I'd sooner expect it in the Arctic Ocean, but who knows.

Edit: Some supporting evidence from twitter:
[https://twitter.com/FrankBottema/status/1276930424170844162](https://twitter.com/FrankBottema/status/1276930424170844162)

------
basicplus2
"The composition of the nuclides may indicate damage to a fuel element in a
nuclear power plant. RIVM has made calculations to find out what may have been
the origin of the detected radionuclides. These calculations show that the
radionuclides come from the direction of Western Russia."

[https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&...](https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&nv=1&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://www.rivm.nl/nieuws/radioactieve-
stoffen-gedetecteerd-in-lucht-boven-noord-
europa%3F_ga%3D2.21439288.204026084.1593171260-1689041124.1593171260&usg=ALkJrhh-
TIF9k2nJoLZNi32MU-I5FaFOPg)

------
albntomat0
What's the base rate for this type of detection? Another commenter mentioned
this is how Chernobyl was first reported, but I can't find anything on how
often such things happen randomly without a catastrophic root cause.

~~~
lifeisstillgood
I am quite disturbed to find that this is not a zero level base rate.

I remember the "CIA Whole Earth" from Snow Crash. I always thought that Google
Earth would be something like that - some cross between a weather station and
wikipedia.

~~~
serf
> I am quite disturbed to find that this is not a zero level base rate.

speaking of disturbing factoids about radiation.. This is one of those nerdy
cocktail topics I spout out about when i'm bored at a bar.[0]

[0]:[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low-
background_steel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low-background_steel)

~~~
booleandilemma
Relevant xkcd: [https://xkcd.com/2321/](https://xkcd.com/2321/)

------
noja
Nuclear energy is very safe, but to be safe it relies on the systems that
support it. One of those systems is the economic system. I hope nothing bad
has happened.

------
chronicsunshine
Probable sources would be:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kola_Nuclear_Power_Plant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kola_Nuclear_Power_Plant)
or
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leningrad_Nuclear_Power_Plant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leningrad_Nuclear_Power_Plant)

Notably the second uses RBMK-1000 reactors, the same as used in Chernobyl.

~~~
guerrilla
TASS says the operators of those claim that they are fine
[https://tass.com/world/1172279](https://tass.com/world/1172279)

------
thiagocsf
EDIT: apologies; I commented under the parent when I meant to do under this
comment about the Goiânia accident:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23662601](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23662601)

My aunt still lives next door to the “Vigilância Sanitária” place where the
material was quarantined.

At the time I was spending school holidays with my cousins and, after a day
out, we came home to find the whole street blocked. Naturally we drove around
the block and managed to get to their condo - a unit out of a set of three
buildings.

We didn’t see any neighbours and it was only when we turned on the TV that we
found out why. I guess the authorities forgot to block the entrance to the car
park. So out we went again to get tested for radiation.

Going back to school in Rio was fun. My friends were giving me all sorts of
ribbing and some kids refused to sit next to me for a while.

------
mongol
I saw this tweet a short while back. It does not add anything to the article
but is an official source

[https://twitter.com/SSM_Nyheter/status/1275416038755139584](https://twitter.com/SSM_Nyheter/status/1275416038755139584)

~~~
guerrilla
Tack. Do they have a live map like Finland does [1]?

[1]. [https://www.stuk.fi/aiheet/sateily-
ymparistossa/sateilytilan...](https://www.stuk.fi/aiheet/sateily-
ymparistossa/sateilytilanne-tanaan)

~~~
mongol
Not that I am aware of. Kind of disappointed actually.

~~~
guerrilla
Yeah, same. I found a couple [1][2] of live maps but I'm not really sure how
seriously to take them. Especially since they don't appear to show this spike.

[1]. [http://radioactiveathome.org/map/](http://radioactiveathome.org/map/)

[2]. [https://radmon.org/index.php](https://radmon.org/index.php)

------
PovilasID
This is probably just leakage to due to mismanagement. Russian government may
prioritize well being of population but nuclear accident would drop land price
economy would suffer and people who have power would suffer from, so I hope
self-interest and The lesson of all lessons make me hopeful that the rain
outside my window not radioactive (in Lithuania not Russia but still in the
path)

------
m3kw9
Wouldn’t be surprised if nuclear fission waste is being dumped

~~~
catalogia
I would be surprised if they were doing that in the Baltic Ocean.
Traditionally Russia has dumped their nuclear waste near Novaya Zemlya, into
the Arctic Ocean.

------
chiefalchemist
Has this been verified / confirmed by a second or third sensors location?
Wouldn't multiple locationns help pin point the possible source?

------
GekkePrutser
I wonder where this is from. First thought was Fukushima. As they say it's
from a civil nature. It's very far from the Baltic though. Wouldn't really be
possible.

Or one of the many nuclear subs that have sank perhaps? I believe most ship
reactors are quite similar in design to civil power plants, just much smaller.

------
unnouinceput
Quote: "We are able to indicate the likely region of the source..."

Then tell us who. And since they didn't said it in the first place, I bet is
mother Russia again.

~~~
norenh
They do indicate the region, and it does include sweden, finland, large parts
of baltics and certain areas in russia:
[https://mobile.twitter.com/SinaZerbo/status/1276559857731153...](https://mobile.twitter.com/SinaZerbo/status/1276559857731153921/photo/1)

Had you included the full quote you would have known why they did not point
out the exact location: "We are able to indicate the likely region of the
source, but it’s outside the CTBTO’s mandate to identify the exact origin"

If I interpret it correctly it means that they do not know the exact location
and other organisations will now have to investigate it further to get the
exact origin.

~~~
ip26
_If I interpret it correctly_

Sounds more like they are pretty sure where but aren't allowed to say.

~~~
davrosthedalek
I think that's the point. They are only "pretty" sure. There is always room
for error, and not pointing out the likely culprit protects them from
retaliation.

~~~
BurningFrog
Or they _are_ sure, but relations with the guilty party are not conducive to
revealing it.

------
Nginx487
Can't even guess, who's riding the horse with the naked torso could be
responsible.

~~~
rantwasp
that’s speculation. i could be a horse, it could be a bear, a moose, you name
it

~~~
Nginx487
That's common sense. The only authoritarian state in the region refusing to
share information for common security. In 2019 they already tried to hide
radioactive leak on the nuclear test site [0]

After the accident, people with the radioactive syndrome were admitted to a
general hospital, alongside with children and pregnant women. Doctors were
threatened by FSB not to disclose information about accident. Chernobyl did
not teach them anything.

[0] [https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/12/security-brief-
russia-w...](https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/12/security-brief-russia-
weapon-nuclear-test-radiation-leaks-bolton-visits-london-yemen-saudi-
coalition/)

------
rurban
So they know where the emission originated from, but they are not telling it??
Please. Are we still in the 80ies?

~~~
user_50123890
[https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbdAa9qXQAYji-z?format=jpg&name=...](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbdAa9qXQAYji-z?format=jpg&name=medium)

Spoiler: 99% chance it's from Russia.

~~~
rurban
50/50 Either Tallin or St Petersburg. One of them is not in Russia, but both
are Russian-style (ie Chernobyl) water pressure reactors. One of them leaked
in a massive scale, but thanksfully only twice.

~~~
Nginx487
Estonia would have immediately shared the information about the accident with
the allies. Russia always (without exceptions) tries to hide it from the world

[https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/12/security-brief-
russia-w...](https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/12/security-brief-russia-
weapon-nuclear-test-radiation-leaks-bolton-visits-london-yemen-saudi-
coalition/)

~~~
rurban
Yes, I was wrong. The 2nd nearby is Murmansk, and that's to far away for that
measurements. So it's clear that it was from the stone aged St Petersburg
plant, a design before Chernobyl 3+4 (which was iter 2). Their broken Unit 1
is shut down, but the old 2-4 are still online, plus 4 modern ones.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leningrad_Nuclear_Power_Plant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leningrad_Nuclear_Power_Plant)

Or that military ship Akademik Aleksandrov which was nearby at that time.
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23664056](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23664056)

------
Nodraak
The original data seems to be available at [^1] but I dont see any spike
around the 22-23 of June ... Let's wait to know more before saying anything
stupid (looking at you Greenpeace)

[^1] [https://www.stuk.fi/aiheet/sateily-
ymparistossa/sateilytilan...](https://www.stuk.fi/aiheet/sateily-
ymparistossa/sateilytilanne-tanaan)

~~~
syvanen
That system you linked only measures radiation. While the sensor in Sweden
actually sample the air to detect certain isotopes. STUK does have this type
of sensors also and did see these same type of isotopes in the air[1]. [1]
Announcement in Finnish [https://www.stuk.fi/-/helsingin-ilmassa-pienia-
maaria-keinot...](https://www.stuk.fi/-/helsingin-ilmassa-pienia-maaria-
keinotekoisia-radioaktiivisia-aineita-viime-viikolla)

------
theophrastus
This couldn't be the leakage from that nuclear powered cruise missile 'test'
lost by the Russians 2017-2018[1]? That is, is Barents sea too far from the
Baltic for a couple of years of tides?

[1] [https://www.theverge.com/2018/8/21/17766426/russia-
nuclear-p...](https://www.theverge.com/2018/8/21/17766426/russia-nuclear-
powered-cruise-missile-lost-barents-sea)

~~~
eitland
If it was transmitted through the sea, then more or less (depending on where
in the Barents) the whole Norwegian coast and then some is between the Barents
sea and the Baltic.

And the Norwegian coast is long. Really long.

That said this seems to be airborne.

