
Bitcoin Adoption Right on Schedule - cs702
http://cs702.wordpress.com/2012/12/02/bitcoin-adoption-right-on-schedule/
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quanticle

        >As financial, economic, and political crises of all kinds continue to erupt 
        >all over the planet from time to time, demand for Bitcoin as a currency or 
        >store of value of last resort should gradually expand from niche markets to 
        >the broader population.
    

I don't buy that argument. There are all sorts of measures that people take
during crises (barter, for example) that they don't continue with when the
crisis fades. A true test of Bitcoin would be to determine if Iranians are
_still_ using Bitcoin after the current crisis fades and the sanctions have
receded somewhat. If they're still using Bitcoin then, you can make the case
that Bitcoin is displacing the Iranian real as the currency of choice in Iran.
But otherwise, all this proves is that Bitcoin is temporarily more convenient
than the current currency system, which isn't a very strong assertion at all.

~~~
cs702
quanticle: If Bitcoin survives the present crisis in Iran, surely it will gain
credibility in the minds of Iranians as a medium of exchange and store of
value _that can survive crises_. That's undeniable.

Next time there's a crisis, or even risk of crisis, more Iranians will turn to
Bitcoin, just as they will turn to gold, silver, and the US dollar. Their
thinking will be, "well, if it survived the last crisis, it will probably
survive this new crisis too."

As a decentralized virtual asset, Bitcoin not only can survive financial
crises, collapsed economies, toppled governments, and military conflicts; it's
also SUPERIOR to the alternatives - easier to subdivide, recombine, store,
secure, and transport than precious metals and hard currencies. One cannot
encrypt an ounce of gold or upload silver to a remote server, let alone hide a
dollar inside a jpeg file!

Over the coming years and decades, if Bitcoin successfully survives crisis
after crisis, nothing prevents it from eventually gaining as much credibility
in the public's mind as, say, gold.

~~~
quanticle

        >Over the coming years and decades, if Bitcoin successfully survives crisis 
        >after crisis, nothing prevents it from eventually gaining as much credibility 
        >in the public's mind as, say, gold.
    

You unintentionally prove my point. How much bullion do you have under your
figurative mattress right now?

~~~
cs702
quanticle: before I answer your question, I'm glad you're willing to compare
gold to Bitcoin, because the world's total supply of gold, ~171,000 tons, is
currently worth ~US$9.4 trillion,[1] whereas the total supply of Bitcoin is
currently worth only ~US$130 million.[2] If Bitcoin ever gains anywhere near
as much credibility as gold, the potential for appreciation is mind-boggling.

As it turns out, I do own a bit of physical gold (as well as some bitcoins),
but that's irrelevant, because I'm one of the lucky people in this planet who
currently lives in an advanced economy, so I'm not constantly worrying about
impending financial, economic, governmental, or societal collapse. I have the
luxury of taking it for granted that things will continue to function normally
every day.

However, I have lived and/or worked in several so-called 'developing'
economies, and have personally experienced hyper-inflation, and can tell you
_with certainty_ that when people lose faith in their government-issued
currency, they turn to _any alternative_ that can survive the crisis while
retaining its value.

\--

[1]
[http://www.gold.org/about_gold/story_of_gold/numbers_and_fac...](http://www.gold.org/about_gold/story_of_gold/numbers_and_facts)

[2] <http://www.bitcoincharts.com/bitcoin/>

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contingencies
At present, Bitcoin is primarily useful for moving funds between alternate
asset types (ie. as a means of settlement) and NOT as a store of value or
investment. This has been independently stated by formal financial bodies,
plus by the Bitcoin lead developer. People need to understand this.

See also the three primary functions of money at
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money>

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w1ntermute
Isn't the Iranian govt planning on cutting the country off from the worldwide
internet? Wouldn't that make the use of BTC much more difficult?

~~~
hippich
I would imagine few rogue machines connected somehow to outside internet and
sharing blocks on iranian intranet. something like this. But yeah - it would
be more dificult to deal with transactions which involve coins "from outside",
but it should be fine for coins "from inside"

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armored_mammal
I still think the fact that there's hard cap on the eventual total number of
bitcoins will make them long run deflationary, create a strong incentive to
horde, and eventually act as a restraint on their use in commerce - after all
inflation is a prime motivator when it comes to spending what you have now.

~~~
lukesandberg
I disagree. inflation is _a_ motivator for exchanging currency for other
assets/services. But i don't think it is a primary motivator.
Inflation/deflation is only a strong motivator in abnormal circumstances. With
2-3% inflation my primary motivation for buying things is way more about the
transaction itself (do i want this thing) than any concerns about finding a
durable store of value.

~~~
meric
Bitcoin has much higher than 2-3% deflation. It's value is increasing at a
very fast rate relative to the increase of the price of goods.

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tonfa
The original article is very fuzzy and it isn't clear at all whether bitcoins
are used in Iran (it's mostly about how bitcoins _could_ be useful).

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joejohnson
So I have a bunch of bitcoins, and I get to Iran, how do I withdraw some
bitcoins to have local currency while abroad? Do I need to transfer to Dwalla
first, and then wait for a bank transfer? Does anyone know the best way to
convert my BTCs back into gov-backed currency when I need it?

~~~
kiba
You could use localbitcoins.com to find local people to exchange currency
with.

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cypherpunks01
Link to original article:

[http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-29/dollar-
less-...](http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-29/dollar-less-
iranians-discover-virtual-currency)

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spoiledtechie
Are there any APIs to have people buy products and services with bitcoins?
Also, How can I turn them into cash once people have bought services with
those bitcoins?

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BrianPetro
Does anyone have any good resources for Bitcoin in business?

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taligent
Supporters of Bitcoin really are their own worst enemy.

You only have to look at the comments to see why most normal people aren't
going to touch it with a forty foot pole.

~~~
habitue
Examples? Your comment is basically content free here.

~~~
taligent
Let's start with the most popular: "Bitcoin is to the USD (and all fiat) what
Kryptonite is to Superman."

People don't want a massive upheaval of the status quo. They don't want an
anarchist, anything goes, regulation free environment. They want government
involved in ensuring a level playing field.

~~~
codexon
If you ignore the anarcho-capitalism fanatics, you can see bitcoin has its
uses. It is great for international trade without having to use Paypal. And
there are no chargebacks.

The big problem with Bitcoin is that it is really slow to verify a transaction
so it is not going to replace current solutions in the next decade. But it
definitely has a niche.

However the price of bitcoins barely risen by $1 so I doubt Iranians have
bought more than $10,000 worth of bitcoins.

~~~
politician
"really slow to verify a transaction"

10 minutes to get into the block chain + 50 minutes (5 additional rounds) to
shift the probabilities of a fraudulent transaction (e.g. double-spending)
down near 0.

This may or may not be too slow depending on the transaction.

~~~
xyproto
Not too slow for must purchases over the internet, one would think.

~~~
codexon
When you can buy something instantly with paypal on a competitor's site, it is
too slow.

~~~
politician
On the other had, for something like automatic subscription renewals it's
fine.

