
Microsoft Makes Clever Moves - chmars
http://www.mondaynote.com/2015/02/01/microsoft-makes-clever-moves/
======
_nedR
Microsoft is adopting the "Services, not devices" (or OSes) strategy envisaged
two years ago ([http://stratechery.com/2013/services-not-
devices/](http://stratechery.com/2013/services-not-devices/)).

Under Ballmer, Microsoft had a brief identity crisis, trying to be a
vertically integrated company like Apple. It is clear that Satya Nadella is
taking Microsoft the other way to become a horizontally-integrated company
like Google ([http://stratechery.com/2013/understanding-
google/)by](http://stratechery.com/2013/understanding-google/\)by) open-
sourcing .Net platform, to support competing platforms like Linux, releasing
Office and Outlook on all mobile platforms (Windows, iOS, Android), focusing
on cloud services, and deprioritizing Windows.

~~~
frozenport
>>like Google

But in an ironic way!

Both companies are the foundations upon which the digital age sits, everybody
runs Windows/Office and everybody uses Google search. MS and Google can do
whatever the heck they want and fail often without consequence.

~~~
CmonDev
_"...everybody runs Windows/Office and everybody uses Google search..."_

Several years ago you could add "...and everybody uses an iPhone...". Well,
not anymore.

~~~
slightmarginal
This was actually on Darging Fireball just the other day,

> It’s true that Samsung passed Apple in smartphone market share years ago,
> but “the crown” was never Apple’s to cede. In the years prior to Samsung’s
> rise in 2010, Nokia led the industry, by far, in smartphone market share.
> RIM, too, was ahead of Apple until 2010.

[http://daringfireball.net/linked/2015/01/31/chmieliewski-
sma...](http://daringfireball.net/linked/2015/01/31/chmieliewski-smartphone-
market-share)

------
FreakyT
I find it somewhat disingenuous when the CEO of Cyanogen makes claims about
people wanting use CyanogenMod without the Google Apps. Look at any custom-
built CyanogenMod roms out there -- every one of them includes instructions on
flashing the Google apps.

The only company that has had any success with a forked Android is Amazon, and
I suspect that's less about writing replacement apps (as I guess Cyanogen
plans to do) and more about Amazon's existing massive market power.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
> CEO of Cyanogen makes claims about people wanting use CyanogenMod without
> the Google Apps.

You know, China exists; Google apps are blocked in an entire country that just
happens to be the largest single country market for mobile.

> The only company that has had any success with a forked Android is Amazon

That is definitely not true. Xiaomi? Anyone selling Android in China (which
excludes Amazon)?

~~~
fpgeek
As you note, inside China is an important special case, but outside China,
Xiaomi includes Google apps. For that matter, even plenty of people in China
want Google. There's a practically a cottage industry of hacks to get the Play
Store on Chinese devices (including a shady app in the Mi Market, I believe).

~~~
seanmcdirmid
The situation is totally artificial: most Chinese would love to have Google on
their phone if the gov would allow it. But given the situation, it should be
no surprise that some of the biggest consumers of Cyanogen are OEMs making
phones for use in the PRC market.

~~~
fpgeek
Exactly. That demonstrates the fundamentally unstable foundation of Chinese
non-Google Android. China might decide to interfere with the non-Google
services being used (I suspect that's more if they come from a foreign company
like Microsoft), Google might negotiate a new agreement or something else
might scramble the playing field (China taking a hard line on device
encryption?).

------
anjc
I don't know why people would suggest that Microsoft fork Android. Windows
Phone is by far and away the best experience i've had on a phone, and my Lumia
930 is the nicest phone i've used (after coming from a series of iPhones).
Don't get me started on the Surface Pro 3, which is probably the most
impressive device i've ever had.

Microsoft's devices strategy wont be clear until after Windows 10 is launched,
I feel, and until a full product line is evident. And you'd be being very
silly to discount them at this stage.

I feel like people on tech sites/forums experience observation bias because
of, maybe, a tendency towards using OSX and Linux, and they seem to forget
that Microsoft are utterly dominant in many areas. They've also entered new
industries in the last decade and became dominant in short order too.

~~~
smacktoward
They suggest it because providing the best user experience appears not to
matter much, sales-wise. People keep on buying Android and iOS devices no
matter how good Windows Phone becomes.

In many ways Windows Phone reminds me of the rebooted Palm Inc. webOS provided
a far superior user experience to iOS and Android circa 2008-9, but in the end
"meh" hardware and limited carrier support weighed them down more than great
UX could lift them up. Microsoft has more money to burn trying to break that
cycle than Palm did, of course -- but on the other hand iOS and Android are
far more solidly entrenched in the top 2 positions than they were seven years
ago.

~~~
anjc
Yeah I get you with the Palm comparison, but I do think that the top end
Lumia's are definitely not 'meh' hardware.

I recently purchased the 930, so I can see a way Microsoft can increase sales
immediately, and you hit the nail on the head. Work with the bloody carriers,
but at all levels other than distribution. I went to several mobile phone
shops and every single one effectively said "don't buy a flagship windows
phone mate, have a look at this cheap shitty mess of an android one". Send
some bloody reps around, interact with carriers, incentivise them, and sales
will immediately go up.

------
damianknz
I made the switch from an Android Sony to a Lumia 530 this Christmas. Apart
from the LCD TN screen the Lumia is easily the best phone I've ever had at
half the price.

~~~
barrkel
You can't make a statement like that without qualifying it. Why is it easily
the best phone? What do you use your phone for?

I know I very rarely use my phone for phone calls. For me, it's all about apps
and the capabilities those apps have.

My own phones have all been Nexuses. The reasons being that I consider Apple
fascist[1], and Android is the only alternative with the combination of lots
of apps and a way of replacing both launcher and default applications with
third party apps.

As far as I know, Windows Phone's launcher can't be switched out, in fact I
just did a quick search and it seems like not even the default browser can be
replaced! It looks like Windows Phone is almost as restrictive as Apple,
except with fewer apps. How would that make for a better phone, never mind
"easily the best"?

Now, I'm no fan of Google, and I don't like the direction they're taking
Android in, cutting down the functionality of AOSP, and dragging more into
their proprietary apps and libraries. It's just that Android is the least
worst choice right, now, as I see it.[2]

[1] Controlling, capricious, patronizing, "do it our way or get lost"
mentality; and a brand that is a magnet for narcissists everywhere.

[2] MS primarily cares about money; it's copying Apple because it sees Apple
making money. But Apple doesn't care about money; it thinks it's better than
you, and it attracts people who like to think of themselves as better than
other people, with more discerning taste in expensive status symbols. Making
lots of money is a side-effect of Apple's strategy, because it's harnessing a
narcissism latent in modern individualistic consumer society. MS's strategy
won't work because it's not appealing to narcissists. Google, meanwhile, is
following Microsoft's 1980s strategy to Apple's 1980s strategy.

~~~
Kattywumpus
I'm not the OP, but I am a Windows Phone user, and I love it. Obviously, it
may not be your cup of tea, but it has an appeal other phones don't for me.

First, I don't think MS is "copying Apple". Using Live Tiles is a very
different experience than poking at icons on the iPhone. And MS isn't
marketing to "narcissists" \-- the best selling Windows Phones are all at the
very low end of the market. The fit and polish you can get on a low-end
Windows Phone are absolutely phenomenal. I bought one just to play with
because Amazon had the Lumia 520 for $29 during the holidays, and got hooked
on the platform. Now I'm buying a slightly higher-end model and passing along
the 520 to a relative who is still using a flip phone.

As a developer, there are a ton of opportunities on the Windows Phone market.
It's relatively small, but the key word there is relatively. There are a lot
of open niches and a userbase that is hungry and appreciative.

~~~
CmonDev
Actually, both Google and Apple are copying Microsoft now. I mean "Material
design"? C'mon, come up with something on your own!

~~~
0xFFC
Whats in Material design related to apple products ? I couldnt understand the
connection between two.

------
samspenc
I wasn't sure what to expect after seeing the title. But I will admit, the
author makes an interesting point about how <spoiler alert> Microsoft could
"embrace and extend" Android <end spoiler alert>.

But: I personally don't see that happening. Even if Microsoft was able to
influence the forked versions of Android, how would that help Microsoft's
bottom line?

And at this stage, how much damage could they inflict to the real Android,
which is now running on almost all smartphones except those from Microsoft or
Apple?

The PC industry in the late 80s was a competitive marketplace, and there were
real competitors to Microsoft's business till it basically took over the PC
market. I think the mobile industry has pretty much entered that phase now.

~~~
Alterlife
The big problem with Android is the lack of updates for popular phones. Love
it, or hate it, cyanogen does address that.

More significantly, manufacturers have tested the waters with cyanogenmod
devices -- oneplus one, Oppo n1, Micromax's Yu Yureka. I for one would be more
likely to buy a cyanogenmod supported phone than a 'touchwiz', 'optimus' or
"Windows 8" phone if I was assured of two year updatability.

And how would this help Microsoft's bottom line? Android... with Bing.

~~~
fpgeek
For popular devices, the bottleneck with Android updates isn't really the
resources to develop them, it's the carrier certification process. You can see
that when the same device gets updates on some countries/carriers and not
others. CyanogenMod doesn't address that, it just evades it via unlocked
bootloaders and flashing. The more official they try to be, the more they will
run into the same problems.

~~~
yuliyp
Why is carrier certification a thing? The carrier supplies a SIM card and as
long as the device cna properly use its antenna and the SIM card the carrier
should not need to do anything else.

~~~
Infinitesimus
Among other things, 'carrier certification' also includes installing 5-10 apps
the user will never use and adding restrictions they deem fit. Plus, the
certification is to make sure that the device updated doesn't bork the phone's
service (or so I'm told, no experience in that industry)

------
sheetjs
> While Microsoft Office for mobile is a satisfying success ...

Are there numbers supporting this claim? A cursory search revealed no publicly
released usage statistics

~~~
Zigurd
It works. It's a little bigger and slower than Drive apps. But not bloated.
There were a couple oddities like OneDrive having a separate account. But
nothing that would turn me off. The free version had not been crippled.
Microsoft appears to be serious about monetizing via their ecosystem and are
not holding back on features. The UI is clean and truly "touch first."
Microsoft did a great job.

------
Olivier26
They do with Cyanogen what they did with Xenix:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenix](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenix)

~~~
rasz_pl
Just like they did with Nokia what they did with Sendo:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sendo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sendo)

------
7ewis
I really don't want Microsoft to start controlling Cyanogen.

I like it the way it is - with Google services and apps!

------
shmerl
_> Perhaps they’ve been looking in the wrong direction and can return to their
“trusted” Embrace and Extend tactics._

Does he refer to the despicable practice of "embrace, extend and
extinguish"[1]? It's one of the most disgusting stains on Microsoft's
reputation (along with their lock-in and standards hijacking practices). I'm
surprised author even suggests to do that as something acceptable.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embrace,_extend_and_extinguish](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embrace,_extend_and_extinguish)

~~~
chriscub
I frankly think that Microsoft more nefarious tactics have hurt them more than
helped them over the long run.

Take the browser wars as an example. Bundling IE got massive share which then
bred arrogance, stagnation, and lack of standards compatibility. That set that
stage for IE becoming reviled for all of those things and the rise of
Chrome/FireFox.

There was certainly a bad ride for consumers along the way, but the situation
worked itself out. It probably would have had the same outcome even if the DOJ
and the EU didn't get involved.

Full disclosure: I worked at Microsoft for eight years and left a couple of
years ago. I'm typing this on Chrome on my Mac now.

~~~
TheCondor
Those tactics took them from being a big PC software company to one of the
largest and most powerful corporations on the planet, that was just printing
money under the "flat years" of Ballmer.

Are you suggesting that those tactics are so ingrained that they cannot be
repaired? Sure ie isn't the thought leader, but who gives a shit when you are
printing money like they are? I think the hipster chic only matters for
growth, they are a dividend company now. They've shown an incredible
resiliency and the industry is such that mistakes are costly. I just can't
imagine counting them out.

~~~
shmerl
_> They've shown an incredible resiliency_

Resiliency in crooked tactics is not a good trait.

