
How many jobs can be done at home? [pdf] - erentz
https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_White-Paper_Dingel_Neiman_3.2020.pdf
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0xFACEFEED
As someone who's worked from a lot and also worked from an office, I feel like
there's an important component missing when discussing WFH for professions
outside of tech.

One important issue IMO is just having a workspace. Software engineers are
kinda spoiled in this regard because we make the big bucks. We can afford to
retrofit areas of our homes to create good working conditions. We can take our
laptops to coffee shops in a pinch.

I recently upgraded my living situation by moving into a much nicer place, but
it's smaller so I ditched the "home office" setup I had before. Now with COVID
I'm working in my dining room and on my couch. It's so much worse. It might
sound silly but I'm putting a lot more wear/tear on my furniture by being
around all day.

My take on this is that homes aren't and never were designed for WFH
conditions. There are so many details about offices that we take for granted.
I found myself having to clean way more often and do way more dishes now that
the entire family is stuck in the house together.

Then there's a socialization aspect. Tech has a culture of "as long as you can
do the job, it doesn't matter how you behave/dress/interact" \-- this thinking
is applied along a spectrum, some companies are more extreme than others about
it. But a lot of professions like sales/legal/etc rely very heavily on close
social interaction. Tech is also unique in this regard IMO.

~~~
nostrademons
I've always preferred working from home (couch, bed, or floor - I don't do
tables and chairs) simply because programming was my hobby before it was my
job, and I always associated peak productivity with being able to be relaxed
and enjoy my surroundings rather than feel like I need to put on a physical
performance of working.

My take on it is that people will adjust, and that the most productive
environment is the one you're most familiar with. Many professions like sales,
legal, and investment banking rely on putting on a professional "front" to
make a good first impression. This is much harder to do when you're sitting on
a couch at home and have a couple kids screaming in the background. IMHO this
is a _good_ thing, because the constant impression-management needed in these
professions is a huge distraction from the actual substance of these jobs, and
anything that punctures the impression-management bubble and forces people to
deal with real human realities is an improvement. Already I'm seeing a big
normalization of things like childcare, screaming toddlers, two-parent
schedules, breastfeeding, and so on - this can't be shunted off as "woman's
work" and relegated to the home anymore, when the home becomes the workplace
and both parents generally need to trade off to make it work.

Basically I think our society before coronavirus was broken and coronavirus
lockdowns are simply forcing us to deal with the ways in which it was broken.
The old society isn't going to last much longer, and it's better to deal with
that and build a more resilient, more honest one than to try to preserve the
rituals that many industries had developed in 75 years of peace.

~~~
NikolaNovak
That is impressive; I could not possibly work like that though :<

1\. Never mind posturing, it's the posture - I get back and neck pain just
thinking of working from a couch or floor :(

2\. I like my multiple 27" monitors. Going back to just a single 14" feels
like a _huge_ productivity hit.

3\. Same thing with proper keyboard + mouse, vs just a touchpad or even the
trackpoint.

So I'll agree that there's a lot of posturing and professional front in this
and many professions; but even without that, I've always far far preferred my
home office to either proper office, or working from living areas.

\------------

The other aspects are more age dependent (though I believe so is the posture /
back pain;). It helps to distinguish "working area" and "non-working area",
triply so once you have family. There's a million things that I do better at
when I'm "in the zone" \- ingested the background, focused on the problem at
hand. Distractions reset that counter - I love my kid, I love my wife, but
there are aspects of my work that don't benefit from their presence :-). This
is probably part of why my personal most productive times tended to be late at
night when the world has settled down and distractions are at a minimum...

~~~
ornornor
This is a problem I have too. I don’t have a home office so I have to work
from the couch hunched over my laptop. It hurts. I’ve been doing it for a
month. I get tingles in my pinkie after a couple hours they last for the day
(ulnar nerve compression I think)

I don’t know how to cope. I can’t take the time off and not work for another
month, but I also don’t want to wear my body down and have pain all day every
day. I hated working in my office because it’s open space and noisy but I’d
love to go now that it’s deserted. I have two large displays there, a mouse, a
keyboard.

~~~
thestepafter
It sounds like you have trigger points building up. Stretch your arms,
shoulders, and back everyday. I recommend arm stretches for doing handstands.
Also, make sure your arms and upper body are warm, borderline hot. I wear
winter cycling sleeves because they are thin and don’t get in the way. Also
wear a thin smartwool sweater, and the heat is on 76. Completely reversed the
pain and discomfort I had been experiencing for years by doing the above
daily.

~~~
veggieburglar
I’m sweating just thinking about wearing a wool sweater with the heat on 76!

------
ravenstine
> Our classification implies that 34 percent of U.S. jobs can plausibly be
> performed at home.

If even 25% of jobs could be made remote, that would be huge. The reduction in
automobile traffic, the improved happiness of workers(who want to work
remote), as well as parents being around more for their kids, would benefit
society overall.

~~~
throw1234651234
I have a feeling that a low double-digit percent of jobs will permanently
convert to remote or partial remote after this experience.

I have been in two companies that went remote, and the bosses don't want to,
until they try and realize the convenience.

~~~
slg
>I have a feeling that a low double-digit percent of jobs will permanently
convert to remote or partial remote after this experience.

I am hesitant to draw too many conclusions from this work at home experience
because the pandemic is providing so many complicating factors that end up
distorting both the benefits and downsides of working from home. Some examples
to mind:

* It often is a benefit to get out of a distracting office, but now people are at home being distracted by kids who would otherwise be in school under normal circumstances.

* Work from home allows people the freedom to work form wherever they want. Now we are all stuck at home.

* Every company is being forced to be a remote-first organization so there is no face to face communication happening in the office that someone working from home might miss.

* The pandemic takes a mental toll on everyone. Many of us are probably not as productive right now as we would be otherwise and that has nothing to do with working form home, but will that decreased productivity be blamed on working from home?

~~~
Tade0
Here's another angle: office space is also a (significant at times) cost and
some companies may be low on cash soon.

~~~
cosmodisk
Won't change a thing- they are all tied into long term contracts..

~~~
unicornfinder
Indeed - my company has wanted to reduce office space for a while now but
we're in something like a six year contract.

~~~
ccozan
Well, every contract has a force majeure clause, so...

~~~
nradov
The typical _force majeure_ clauses won't allow commercial tenants to get out
of paying office leases.

------
somethoughts
All remote work is not created equal. I think an aspect of remote work being a
more seamless/smoother transition is for the distributed team to be in the
same time zone or have less than 1 hour time difference. At my current
company, we have conference calls between SF-Portland without much change in
work/life. We evan have virtual lunches together.

I recall having to do SF-Asia and even SF-Dallas and SF-Europe calls in my
previous job and I was burnt out real quick. Just trying to plan a meeting
that wasn't already a recurring scheduled meeting took about 2 days.

[EDIT] Based on the initial responses I changed it from the same time zone
being a _key_ aspect to an aspect which makes the transition
seamless/smoother.

~~~
sgift
I'm not sure it really is a key aspect, maybe it is a risk. With such a small
time difference you can continue - for the most part - as you did before. But
there's always the question if what you did before was really a good idea or
just "we always did it that way", e.g. many conference calls probably could
(and should?) be replaced by written text, which isn't as ephemeral and can be
worked on asynchronously.

That is a change at first, but not more of a change than going from a very
small company, where everyone talks to everyone and maybe even sits in the
same office, to a bigger one where you have to establish processes to ensure
information still reaches everyone in the company (if it needs to).

~~~
somethoughts
Agreed! Its not a key aspect, its just an aspect which makes the transition
more seamless/smoother. Made a brief update to my initial comment. For people
can for sure adapt to remote work across various timezones.

------
xt00
Many people have brought this up, but there are definitely things to consider
for a job to be done while working from home:

1) worker productivity (does it go up or down for all of these professions)

2) do companies want to pay you as much if you work from home?

3) is it sustainable for large swathes of people vs. small groups of people
who self-select to like this work-style

4) will people abuse the system such that it ruins it for everybody else

I can see a far more likely implementation of this would be a mixed case --
"work from home wednesdays" or something like that.. not friday or monday
because then basically people would assume there is a certain amount of abuse
of people working for 1 hour on Friday then starting their weekend early..

~~~
heymijo
> _2) do companies want to pay you as much if you work from home?_

Is there anyone out there with a good argument for why remote workers should
be paid less?

Especially interested in hearing from anyone not incentivized by this practice
(eg not the CEO or Chief People Officer of an org that practices this)

> _will people abuse the system such that it ruins it for everybody else_

An inevitable question and likely consequence.

A counter question: are the myriad ways in-office employees game/abuse the
system working materially worse than how remote workers might?

~~~
afterwalk
Assuming equal value created, companies should pay remote workers more: normal
pay + savings from not using office related overhead (rent + equipment +
amenities)

~~~
warkdarrior
The argument also goes the other way. The company pays you now for the work in
the office and for the inconvenience you incur from commuting. No more
commuting, so you should get paid less.

~~~
knathan
The company isn't paying for your time in the car but it is paying for the
space your desk in the office occupies. Would you argue that someone who
drives 30 minutes more to the office than an otherwise equivalent coworker
should be paid more?

~~~
Kalium
It's possible, isn't it? The person with the longer commute may be able to use
it to negotiate for a higher salary. Particularly if they have another option
with a shorter commute.

Perhaps I misunderstand you or have overlooked something.

------
badrabbit
Look, I am just gonna say it a certain way: It is better now but there were
long stretches in my life where the only in person human interaction I had was
at work or at stores(until delivery apps became a thing) would have sucked big
time if I did wfh then.

I also did wfh doing call support and now IT/infosec stuff. Night and day!

Team dynamics: not everyone can develop interpersonal relationships well when
wfh compared do in person. Imagine being the new guy and have a million
questions but your personality forces you to evaluate body language and
greetings in person before you are comfortable approaching someone.

Oh, and.. Some people have terrible home situation. I don't mean just kids but
sick people to care for, abusive people living with them,loud roommates,etc
....

WFH being the norm would suck,but companies should be much more accomodating
these days.

------
motohagiography
Head mounted displays that were immersive as a motorcycle helmet with
headphones could suddenly move from being a luxury product to a substitute for
a private space for an office in apartments with families.

If I were in the business, I'd be re-marketing HMDs as a work from home
privacy solution. What makes something mass market is it serves people and
solves a problem for them, not something that's just entertaining.

Edit: and someone's already there: [https://www.techradar.com/news/the-
cheapest-active-vr-headse...](https://www.techradar.com/news/the-cheapest-
active-vr-headset-could-be-the-perfect-remote-working-tool)

------
Ancalagon
I'm a little confused by their definition of "jobs" here. Is this the absolute
number of jobs? Or the types of jobs available? Looking at the article, they
use wages to get a more firm grasp on this (saying something like 44% of wages
could be made from home). If that's the case, what does that statistic say for
the unemployment rate in the US, should social-distancing remain long term?
Are we going to see >50% unemployment??

~~~
bdcravens
A large number of the remaining 56% are classified as "essential": grocery and
certain retail, public servants and first responders, healthcare, education,
automotive services, etc. In Houston, for example, many of the energy sector
jobs are classified as essential. Stay at home orders don't impact those jobs
(though many of them may be operating at partial capacity)

~~~
jbullock35
> A large number of the remaining 56% are classified as "essential": grocery
> and certain retail, public servants and first responders, healthcare,
> education [...]

The authors already code 82% of teachers as able to work from home, albeit
with difficulty. See the second footnote in the paper.

~~~
Noos
That's not just working from home if so, that's reassigning an industry from
face to face to virtual, and if history is any guide a lot of teachers may
lose their jobs as well as secondary jobs becoming lost too. Sort of a pyrrhic
victory.

------
ars
If you look at these images:
[https://www.google.com/search?q=piecework%20from%20home&tbm=...](https://www.google.com/search?q=piecework%20from%20home&tbm=isch&safe=active&safe=active&tbs=rimg%3ACWqKwee01nVqImAKKespCKpy84Lpx-
LFQC12RsF72suB7cM04zLOWQ4y3AmKrrcwnvf4KBFzUFAxIWPibqAZDSdWvoj87jzp_1dqcDDBbP8jpHRU7HSCChPkGhATYtBZgHxbOXtNVWHlXwZsqEgkKKespCKpy8xFOxgvhnHj9VCoSCYLpx-
LFQC12EWu1O3CAMWIaKhIJRsF72suB7cMRF8xan6t7XScqEgk04zLOWQ4y3BGxTADB5uCTvSoSCQmKrrcwnvf4ER0hkVsNyUc1KhIJKBFzUFAxIWMRIqvlkUsl1VoqEgnibqAZDSdWvhEnFcBNE5iLuyoSCYj87jzp_1dqcEfaNsu97gqSqKhIJDDBbP8jpHRURmBtDfyEzym8qEgk7HSCChPkGhBHgow1V8De_1DyoSCQTYtBZgHxbOERB9os9bK8rUKhIJXtNVWHlXwZsR49UApPak9C1hZMvRYm7JCpg&hl=en&ved=0CAIQrnZqFwoTCJjc4cvyx-
gCFQAAAAAdAAAAABAG&biw=1146&bih=1035)

You will see there is a lot more than can be done from home than people
realize. Obviously it doesn't all translate over, there's a lot more machinery
now.

But if people _had_ to work from home, people would get creative and there's
more that could be done.

------
droithomme
> most jobs in finance, corporate management, and professional and scientific
> services could plausibly be performed at home

Or some of this could simply not be done at all.

> very few jobs in agriculture, hotels and restaurants, or retail

Au contraire, all agriculture work can be done at home when we raise our own
food. All teaching can also be done at home and currently is being done so.
The basic need of a hotel, a place to sleep, and restauranting, of preparing
and serving food, can be done at home. And retail is already done at home,
store clerks are largely obsolete. What can't be done at home yet is delivery
services and most manufacturing in its current state, but manufacturing
probably could be done at home through expanding micromanufacturing. Networks
of craftsmen shops running mini production lines can make a lot of things.

~~~
alricb
Micromanufacturing, aka the cottage industry. Everything old is new again.

------
shirro
I stopped going into the office a decade ago to be a home dad. I raised 3 kids
at home while doing home duties and casual web dev and server support. It is
very isolating and I think a lot of people are going to struggle with it. I
have always been socially awkward, I didn't grow up with siblings and have
always been comfortable with silence and something to read. But even I
struggled a bit. I think most people should make extra time to keep in touch
with colleagues and do video meetups and fun stuff with them. It might be
disruptive to work and some people might want to do something else instead but
I think the effort probably needs to be made.

------
JSavageOne
If you stare at a computer all day, ie. you have an office job, your job can
be done from home.

I really hope remote work becomes more accepted as an option. It's not even
just about individual productivity and happiness, it's better for the
environment.

What annoys me on these threads is when I see people say "I don't like WFH,
therefore other people shouldn't be able to WFH". There's nothing wrong with
preferring to go into the office, but who gives you the right to tell others
how they have to work? Everyone should have the freedom to work how they are
most comfortable, so long as they can get the work done.

~~~
non-entity
> "I don't like WFH, therefore other people shouldn't be able to WFH".

Could you point me to an example of this, because I dont think I've ever seen
this. The opposite, however I've seen pretty commonly where since "I like WFH
so everyone should WFH".

------
k__
I had the idea of an remote apprenticeship startup to educate people at home
in regulated jobs here in Germany.

Well, that was a few years ago, and I guess the market will be flooded now.

------
sabujp
I'll gladly WFH if the kids weren't here!

------
Animats
If it all goes in and out over a wire, a computer can probably do much of it
now and more of it soon.

------
CiPHPerCoder
> How many jobs can be done at home?

Infinite.

That's because the set of possible vocations is only bounded by human
imagination. This results in an uncountable set, which would resolve to a
value that approaches infinity.

A more insightful question is, "How many of the jobs _that people hold today_
can be done at home?" 34% seems like a reasonable metric.

~~~
eeZah7Ux
Despite the downvotes you make a good point.

The paper does not address the underlying assumption: jobs are fixed in number
and type and we can only change the location.

In reality, job markets are extremely elastic.

Case in point: millions of jobs in the world exist only because a human worker
is slightly cheaper than a machine at a given task.

------
brenden2
Keep in mind that those "work from home" jobs depend on people in China
labouring away to produce your cheap computer hardware.

~~~
kempbellt
I'd argue that a large majority of people who have "work from home" computer
jobs either already have a computer that they can use for work, or their
employer does. Or it can be purchased from already existing inventory (used or
new).

Also, a computer purchase for an employee isn't usually a frequent occurrence.
Maybe once during hire, and once a year to stay up to date (if that).

Computer manufacturers can probably take a break for a couple of months and
the tech industry will survive.

~~~
brenden2
It's naive to think the whole world can just "work from home" indefinitely.
Everything's interconnected, and the vast majority of jobs are still jobs that
can't be done without humans labouring in meatspace. If you want to pretend
the US is some magic island that doesn't depend on China, go for it.

