
Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided? - mgolanbari
http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/280/1754/20122845
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my_first_acct
Authors are Paul and Anne Ehrlich, authors of the famous 1968 book "The
Population Bomb" [1].

From early editions of that book: "The battle to feed all of humanity is over.
In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of
any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a
substantial increase in the world death rate."

Fortunately they were wrong, at least in their timing.

From their new article: "Environmental problems have contributed to numerous
collapses of civilizations in the past. Now, for the first time, a global
collapse appears likely. Overpopulation, overconsumption by the rich and poor
choices of technologies are major drivers; dramatic cultural change provides
the main hope of averting calamity."

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb)

~~~
astrodust
Based on available facts at the time it seemed like a reasonable conclusion
but they should have also realized the facts they did have were limited.

Chemical fertilizers, industrialization, mass production, these all got us out
of a jam. The full effect of early bio-engineering efforts had yet to play
out, and the work of Normal Borlaug
([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Borlaug](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Borlaug))
wasn't in full swing.

Today we're bumping up against different hard limits, like fresh water, which
could cause enormous problems if not dealt with before it reaches a critical
state.

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gumby
Ah yes, Erlichs, still after all these years trying to be right via the
stopped-clock technique:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon–Ehrlich_wager](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon–Ehrlich_wager)

------
buzzybee
For every age we will surely have a bogeyman in our impact, whether it's urban
streets covered in manure, excessive smog, food shortages, acid rain, the
depletion of the ozone layer, or climate change.

The point in reading a text like this shouldn't be to be scared, but to assert
yourself towards whatever the empirical evidence shows will improve matters.
After all, there's no trick that will let you escape this fate, whatever it
is.

------
backprop1989
Unfortunately, the world is never going to end; it's just going to keep
dragging on and on.

