
The IPO of Virgin Trains U.S.A. - pseudolus
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-01/two-billionaires-want-to-restore-the-glory-of-u-s-railroads
======
ChuckMcM
I did a deep dive into passenger train service at one time when I too was
advocating for such a venture (although I don't have billions so it wasn't
something I could just start).

One huge hurdle to successful passenger rail are the rails. They are "owned"
by the two or three massive freight companies. So using them with a passenger
service gives the passenger service second billing. If we could convince the
US to build the National Interstate Rail system (as we did for the highway
system) and used taxes to build and maintain the rails, and then allowed
anyone to use them with just the investment in the train equipment, it would
change the market hugely. And taxing the trains like we do with highways (more
weight means higher tax), would create an entirely different situation.

But to do that, we have to dislodge the Rail industry lobby which is literally
over a hundred years entrenched.

~~~
ryandrake
If you could dislodge the rail lobby, why waste time and money building a
parallel national rail system when there perfectly serviceable existing tracks
that can be converted to be operated for the public good? This is one of the
things Eminent Domain would be _good_ for, as opposed to seizing people’s
homes and giving them away to property developers.

~~~
tomatotomato37
The pre-existing rails are currently at capacity with freight trains, and for
good reason. We can't replace that without harming the logistical system that
keeps the central US at something approximating the first world.

It's better just to build more capacity and reserve it for passenger.

~~~
jcranmer
HSR for passenger already requires dedicated tracks. Mixing 220mph trains and
75mph trains tends not to work very well. (Not to mention the curvature
requirements precluding a lot of existing right of way).

The real problem is the lack of demand for passenger traffic. HSR ridership
falls off a cliff around 2-3 hours; in practice, you're limited to looking at
city pairs within around 500-700mi max, ideally all in a nice line, and
outside the NEC, there's just too few of these pairs.

~~~
bobthepanda
The pairs are more numerous than you'd think. Put 560 mile circles around
Atlanta, New York, Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles, and Seattle and you basically
cover most major metro areas in the US.

~~~
jcranmer
A single pair by itself is not enough to make the investment cost worth it.
(This is the Midwest conundrum--there's actually a decent selection of third
tier cities, but no three of them are close to collinear).

~~~
bobthepanda
Three of them can be collinear if you consider Chicago a viable third city
(e.g. Indianapolis - Milwaukee).

Some city pairs are kind of isolated (St Louis, Kansas City).

Some have decently sized cities that you can connect in a linear fashion
(Chicago > Indianapolis > Louisville > Nashville)

And some you can serve in a somewhat roundabout fashion while still being time
competitive (Chicago > Indianapolis > Cincinnati > Columbus > Pittsburgh).

------
jMyles
Step one: reduce the police-state nature of rail (and, for that matter, all)
travel within the United States. I had no idea until recently that the DEA
conducts horrifying, intimidating, completely suspicion-less raids on Amtrak
sleeper cars.

It happened to myself and my family last year, and although I'm planning to
take Amtrak again this coming week (as there is no other rail option), it's
scary to enter that environment again.

Wish us luck and safety.

[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/federal-
eye/wp/2014/08/1...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/federal-
eye/wp/2014/08/12/dea-paid-an-amtrak-secretary-for-confidential-passenger-
information/?utm_term=.66f79cc4ac56)

[https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/05/how-
the...](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/05/how-the-dea-
harasses-amtrak-passengers/393230/)

~~~
est31
> the DEA conducts horrifying, intimidating, completely suspicion-less raids
> on Amtrak sleeper cars.

It's still far less worse than airports, isn't it? I mean, there is a risk
that you are being searched but not everyone is. Compare that to airplanes
where everyone is being searched and you and can't even take a bottle of water
with you.

~~~
jMyles
Most of the time, it's much better than the airport. 90% of the time, Amtrak
is downright civilized.

However, as I found out the hard way, actually having your compartment raided
by the DEA is _much_ worse than going through the TSA line.

You're in your little (previously cozy) compartment with the door blocked by
DEA agents. It's just you and your family. They're barking orders and
demanding to search things. They're saying that you can be removed from the
train if you don't comply. They're smacking your camera out of your hands and
telling you to stop recording. They're telling you that if you don't submit to
a complete search, they'll bring a dog who might bite your child.

To be clear: they literally did all of those things in my case.

What do you do?

In my case, I held firm and told them that I wasn't going to answer any
questions or consent to any searches, and after an absolutely terrifying 10
minutes, during which they repeatedly threatened violence against myself and
my partner while our 3.5-year old wailed in terror, they finally went away.

I suspect that if I had consented to a search, they'd have stolen cash from my
wallet (as has been reported by several other passengers, as you can see from
the links below) or worse, planted drugs in an effort to increase their
numbers and justify seizing other items.

Refusing to consent to a search is the obvious best thing to do in this
scenario.

But it's not easy, and definitely far worse than any TSA experience I've had,
which includes being singled out for "enhanced" pat-down and questioning.

I mean, it's the fucking DEA. Even the modicum of professionalism that you
have with the TSA is gone.

> can't even take a bottle of water with you.

I typically bring an empty mason jar through security and then fill it at a
water fountain.

~~~
swiley
Wow I didn’t know about the drug planting. I just assumed consenting sucked
but was the optimal thing to do.

~~~
jMyles
What's the advantage of consenting? It seems purely disadvantageous for the
passenger. It's not like you consent and they suddenly go away. I presume that
if you consent, they proceed to search all your stuff.

Even if they don't steal or plant anything, it's a huge invasion of privacy
and, if you have any delicate items, a risk that they'll be damaged.

~~~
dsfyu404ed
There is no advantage to consenting to a search or talking to police. Ever.

~~~
jjoonathan
Pissing off someone with considerable discretionary power to make your life
miserable has no disadvantages, ever?

~~~
jMyles
There may be cases where appeasing someone with discretionary power (real or
perceived) leads to a better outcome, but consenting to an otherwise illegal
search doesn't seem like it's possibly one of them to me.

Am I missing something?

~~~
sjjshzvuiajhz
Well, if we’re talking about corrupt cops who will plant drugs, might they
also lie about you consenting to the search? Maybe you’re better off doing
whatever it takes to make them like you, so they are less likely make you the
person they plant drugs on?

I don’t know what the right answer is, it seems like a tough call. I’m
skeptical of people who confidently say “consenting is never the right
answer”.

~~~
jMyles
Well, you also need to record the conversation. I think that goes without
saying.

------
Pharmakon
If they’re willing to pay for it, and put up everything they own as
collateral, then great. This however is a piss-in-the-wind IPO from Branson,
who is horrendous. If you ever come to England, Virgin will become a curse
word in your vocabulary. Rail can be great, but not Virgin rail.

Edit: Changed “one” to “wind”. Thanks for pointing that out!

~~~
daveguy
OT: I think the phrase is "piss in the wind" ... As in it will be a terrible
waste of time and you'll just end up with piss on you. May be a different
meaning over the pond.

On topic: Are there stories about how Branson/Virgin has screwed up industries
and companies in the UK? Have they already given him control over some rail
systems that were mismanaged? Would be interested to hear about the source of
Branson's poor reputation in his home country. As far as I know he has a
decent reputation here in the US.

~~~
Pharmakon
That was a typo, thanks for catching it. As to Virgin, yes the national rail
service was privatized, and various contracts to run it have been passed
around since. Notable for unreliable schedules due to underinvestment, apps
and systems so Byzantine even the people at the till can’t tell you what the
lowest fare is, bus replacement services galore, and a general lack of
profitability.

One place to read the horror stories would be:
[https://uk.trustpilot.com/review/www.virgintrains.co.uk](https://uk.trustpilot.com/review/www.virgintrains.co.uk)

A typical “whoopsie” on the fares here:
[https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/dec/21/virgin-
trains-...](https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/dec/21/virgin-trains-fares-
app-faulty-advance-ticket)

~~~
mstade
Definitely not going to argue about Virgin – they're useless – and this may be
an unpopular opinion but.. let's not pretend it's just Virgin. As an ex-pat
having lived in London for years it's my firm belief that this is just the way
business operates in the UK. Thames Water for instance double billed me for a
full year. They acknowledged their mistake, told me to pay the invoices anyway
to avoid automatic late charges and then refused to refund. First Direct won't
let me close my bank account, or transfer my funds unless it's to another UK
bank. Black cabs will short change you.. And the constant non-apologies, the
"we're sorry _if_ this causes you inconvenience" etc.. no one owns up to their
faults and mistakes there. I've sinced moved out, and I'm sorry to high jack
your thread, but that article on the fare "whoopsie" just made me cringe – par
for the course when it comes to English business, in my experience.

------
sparrish
More like two billionaires see opportunity to draw from US railway subsidies.

~~~
AnimalMuppet
As far as I can tell, _passenger_ rail is subsidized everywhere, not just in
the US. But there's not that much passenger rail in the US, and freight isn't
subsidized. (Quite the opposite, in fact - freight rail is the only transport
mode in the US that pays taxes on its right of way.)

------
RcouF1uZ4gsC
> Virgin Trains USA LLC, operator of a new east-coast Florida passenger
> express train, hopes to raise about $500 million in an initial public
> offering in coming weeks that would value the company at about $3 billion.
> Its line connecting Miami and West Palm Beach is the first major private
> intercity rail service built in more than a century (it was called
> Brightline until a recent re-branding).

It looks like the first leg will connect Miami and West Palm Beach. However,
the existing Tri-Rail system already does that [http://www.tri-
rail.com/](http://www.tri-rail.com/) . I don't see how another rail system
would be viable.

The Miami to Orlando connection does look interesting, but from the article it
seems it would be the second phase.

~~~
chipotle_coyote
Hmm. My assumption was that Brightline (Virgin Trains USA) would be a _lot_
faster than Tri-Rail for the WPB-Miami run; it's actually about an hour and
fifteen minutes compared to around an hour and forty minutes, though, so how
big a savings that is depends on how much of a hurry you're in. The Brightline
trains and stations are almost certainly nicer, but the fares are _much_
higher: $17 (for the cheapest Brightline one-way ticket) vs. $6.90.

So...yeah. I'm not entirely sure why they aren't targeting a market that _isn
't_ served adequately by an existing option, like Miami or Tampa to Orlando.

------
FTA
I recently took the Brightline train between Miami and Fort Lauderdale and was
absolutely impressed. It felt as if I had been transported to Europe and
aboard a DB train. Staff were professional and competent, stations were bright
and clean, and the train was quite fast (in some places). I have an optimistic
outlook for their SoCal train.

This is all in stark contrast to my experiences on Amtrak, full of half-caring
staff and dirty cars on a train that would be hours behind. I get it, they
don't have ROW since they don't own the tracks, but if the long distance
trains left stations nearly on time, then they would be able to meet most of
the scheduled sidings and pass with ease.

~~~
gok
Yeah honestly the fact that Amtrak doesn't run anywhere near "high speed"
isn't its biggest problem. Just updating the rolling stock and on-board
amenities would be huge.

------
sharph
I can't recommend enough this recent video by youtuber donoteat01, which goes
into depth about (everything wrong with) Elon Musk's underground highway
system, and then about privately funded "public transportation," including
train projects like this, in general.

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dn6ZVpJLxs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dn6ZVpJLxs)

"Be suspicious of privately owned or funded 'public transportation' projects"
is at 23:20

~~~
xyzzyz
The guy makes a lot of good points about why the Musk's idea (at least as he
describes it) doesn't make sense, but the political inserts he does only
detract from his point, and shows his own biases and blind spots.

------
leroy_masochist
Can they take over Metro North next? Literally anything would be better.

The recent DOT change that allows Euro-style trains [0] makes privatization-
driven rail expansion even more exciting....the potential rolling stock just
got WAY faster, cheaper, and more energy efficient.

[0]: [https://usa.streetsblog.org/2018/11/23/u-s-finally-
legalizes...](https://usa.streetsblog.org/2018/11/23/u-s-finally-legalizes-
modern-european-style-train-cars/)

------
niftich
If the Brightline project can't make this work, then no one can in the US.
Florida has a large population, its densest clusters of population lie along a
small number of linear corridors, and it attracts many tourists and a fair
number of business travelers. It has attractions and busy airports that will
be nodes in such a system. It also has ideal rights-of-way mostly
unobstructed.

In the northeast there's infrastructure baggage, in the southwest there's
unforgiving geography, and in the Midwest there's not a co-linear arrangement
of multi-million-population metros, and in the Piedmont there's not a
fortunate right-of-way for truly high-speed rail. Texas is the only other
place to make this work, and they're trying too.

But the problem is always that construction costs for these kinds of projects
are way too high. In Europe, EU-wide transportation funds pay for renovating
and building EU-designated corridors. Individual countries subsidize it too --
much like you'd expect with roads. This structural subsidy would be absent
here, and US construction costs (including materials and wages) are high as
well. This is a significant financial hurdle that neither road-based transport
nor air transport has to contend with.

~~~
jcranmer
You need the demand to make it worthwhile. It's been a long time since I
looked at any city pair traffic estimates, but my recollection is that there's
just not enough demand for intra-Florida traffic, compared to such routes as
SF-LA, Texas Triangle, NEC, or even Midwest.

------
chasingthewind
One of my favorite railroading business yarns is the opposite of an IPO: the
dissolution of the Reading Railroad. When the railroad started to collapse a
group of savvy investors bought a controlling share for pennies on the dollar
because they realized that the company owned a fortune in real estate and
facilities. They then sold off those assets to finance a group of movie
theaters in Australia and New Zealand which still exists today.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reading_Company#Post-
railroad:...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reading_Company#Post-
railroad:_1976%E2%80%93present)

------
diogenescynic
Put a high speed rail from SF to Tahoe please! I don’t know why this hasn’t
happened... so much traffic every weekend all the way to Tahoe. Put in some
rail! Even if it was private it would be profitable.

------
lgats
SEC S-1 Filing:
[https://sec.report/Document/0001140361-18-043289](https://sec.report/Document/0001140361-18-043289)

------
blueboo
Google: how to short ipo

------
LarryDarrell
Everyone hoping that the whims of the ultra-rich will once in a while align
with a common good is no way to structure a society.

~~~
RealityVoid
I agree with you, but looking all along history, the whims of the ultra rich
or the ultra powerfully or the ultra influent _have_ structured the world. All
this time, the people with the means to shape the world have shaped it. So,
maybe, no matter what we do, there is no escaping this. Only maybe filtering
the poeple who get the power somehow.

~~~
antt
Only in the Anglosphere and only since the Restoration in Britain. One need
only look to the English, French and Russian revolutions to see the outsized
influence the declasse have had on history.

Not even talking about Prussia/pre-WWI Germany in which the most powerful
people were a non elected incredibly poor class of generals and civil
servants.

~~~
RealityVoid
> Not even talking about Prussia/pre-WWI Germany in which the most powerful
> people were a non elected incredibly poor class of generals and civil
> servants.

Power manifests itself in many forms, whether it be through money or
persuasion or charm or tactical prowess. The point remains, decisions are made
by the few for the many. And simply being good as something, does not make you
a benevolent force.

That now, we decide the criterion is money as opposed to honor or holiness, is
of little importance. They can all be perverted as soon as their utility is
obvious.

~~~
antt
>Power manifests itself in many forms, whether it be through money or
persuasion or charm or tactical prowess. The point remains, decisions are made
by the few for the many. And simply being good as something, does not make you
a benevolent force.

Tautology is tautological.

Those with power in France in 1798, 1808 and 1818 were using completely
different systems of merit. You could not have predicted Napoleon using the
old system of power, nor could you have predicted the Bourbon Restoration
using the revolutionary system of power.

That hierarchy is used by and large in all organizations is due to the fact
we're limited by technology, not an inherit law of nature. The original
Soviets (not the USSR) and Catalonian anarchists, had they survived, would
have been examples of the many deciding for the many. Depending on how much
you believe the literary canon classical Athens was a successful example of
that for close to a century.

~~~
RealityVoid
> Tautology is tautological.

I believe you had a point with this, but it eluded me. Can you explain (at the
risk of destroying the joke?)

> The original Soviets (not the USSR) and Catalonian anarchists, had they
> survived, would have been examples of the many deciding for the many.

But they didn't, and the fact that they did not pushes the balance towards the
possibility that this might not be such a practical idea.

I think that hierarchy is not necessarily a law of nature, but is so common
one might be excused for thinking it so. If there is some alternative, I can
not conceive it in my mind - not at least in a realistic form - and I would be
very pleased to have it explained to me.

I think there is some sort of a circular reasoning regarding this, in my mind.
I think that in order to have a more egalitarian and self-directed society you
need self-directed individuals. And yet,(according to my mental model) these
individuals are the result of the society that produces them.

~~~
antt
The point your making is that those with power have power. Which is a
tautology. The point I'm making is that the qualifications for having power
change constantly and unpredictably.

I do not think power being concentrated has anything to do with human nature,
just the difficulty in taking action as a group. If you've even been in a
meeting with a dozen people roughly of the same standing it takes a long while
to decide anything. If this was a revolutionary situation you'd have the
authoritarians already taking over the tv and radio stations before you've
read the minutes from the last collectivist group meeting.

Even Athens and Rome realized this and would elect or appoint people with
extraordinary power in a crisis.

When direct brain communication is invented I doubt we will see single
individuals rise to power again.

------
Apocryphon
Reality continues to parody Atlas Shrugged

~~~
dang
Maybe so, but please don't post unsubstantive comments here.

------
dfilppi
Why stop there. Next restore the glory of the horse drawn carriage.

~~~
dang
Could you please stop posting unsubstantive comments to Hacker News? You've
done it a lot, and we ban accounts that do that.

In addition to
[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html),
you might find these links helpful for getting an idea of the spirit of this
site:

[https://news.ycombinator.com/newswelcome.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newswelcome.html)

[https://news.ycombinator.com/hackernews.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/hackernews.html)

[http://www.paulgraham.com/hackernews.html](http://www.paulgraham.com/hackernews.html)

[http://www.paulgraham.com/trolls.html](http://www.paulgraham.com/trolls.html)

------
matco11
Finally! Do airports next. ;-)

