

Does confidence really breed success? - chestnut-tree
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-20756247

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MakeUsersWant
Accurate self-assessment boosts success. Inflated or too-low confidence in
your own abilities doesn't.

(Sorry I can't provide a source. I guess it's an article in Psychologie Heute
in the last 10 years.)

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DrQian
I have read otherwise recently, although I forget where (possibly Kahnemann -
Thinking Fast and Slow, although I don't think so).

I don't have sources to hand, but a quick google suggests the following:

Although people subjectively rate their performances better than an objective
observer would (see, e.g.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect>), being overconfident can
actually lead you to increase your perfomance, at least according to
<http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/lmumuenec/11885.htm>

"Abstract: This paper suggests a potential rationale for the recent empirical
finding that overconfident agents tend to self-select into more competitive
environments (e.g. Dohmen and Falk, forthcoming). In particular, it shows that
moderate overconfidence in a contest can improve the agent's performance
relative to an unbiased opponent and can even lead to an advantage for the
overconfident agent in absolute terms."

So that isn't overwhelming evidence, but it does suggest that what you wrote
might not be correct.

