
Estimating the Effects of File-Sharing on Movie Box-Office - lainon
https://editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name=NASM2017&paper_id=216
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tzs
I wonder what effect it has on other forms of entertainment?

Suppose I'm looking for some entertainment this evening, and imagine piracy is
not available, and imagine that there is a current movie in theaters that I'd
like to see.

Let's say that tickets plus snacks would cost $20. If I decide that's more
than I'd like to spend on an evening's entertainment, I'm probably not going
to just sit at home doing nothing.

I might instead decide to watch a movie on pay-per-view for $5. There are
plenty of movies that I did not deem theater worthy but that I would like to
see, and would prefer not to wait until they show up on some channel that is
included in my cable package.

Or maybe I'll decide the reading is the way to go for my entertainment this
evening, and swing by Barnes & Noble or by Amazon's Kindle store and pick up a
book and start it. Or maybe I'll pick up a magazine or two.

Or maybe I'll take a longer term view and decide to buy a game for $50. Yes,
that's more than the $20 I don't want to spend on a movie, but the game will
provide entertainment for several evenings.

Or maybe I'll go to a club to see a concert.

Now let's change things so piracy is available, and I decide to pirate the
current movie. Since I would not have gone to the theater anyway, my choosing
piracy does not effect current box office. But it does affect my spending on
PPV or books or games or concerts.

I think to properly study the effects of piracy you may have to consider all
forms of entertainment together as a single category.

~~~
wolco
Without money and piracy I may commit a crime to obtain money. I may get
caught and have a crime record. This might force me into a life of crime.

To property study the effects you need to measure everything

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ddingus
People have a largely fixed entertainment budget. While it can flex some, it
won't generally double for the majority of Americans, at least.

The number one impact on box office sales is a shitty experience. I would pay
consistently for an Alamo Drafthouse type experience. I quit considering movie
theaters, because I just don't feel good about any of it.

Very large numbers of my peers have done the same. Wait for the movie, buy a
Disc, or download, make a great dinner, and it's a no contest choice. Costs
about the same too.

As for piracy, funny how that works. I'm told it's costing billions, when I
know better. I'm told it's theft when I know better too.

Buying media via download costs me roughly what physical media does, and I
can't trade and share with friends. Not a huge bother, but yet another
negative we don't need.

Honestly, I just found other experiences. It's hard to get me to even watch a
movie today, and forget TV.

I just don't need it, and rarely want it. As a group activity, a movie still
makes sense. I'll do that, but not in a poor environment, and I'm in no hurry.

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rdtsc
Noticed besides US, Australia and Sweden and Norway have high rate of file
sharing? Wonder why is that? Taxes / tariffs on media?

Conclusions are interesting as well:

"File-sharing reduces total revenue of the motion picture industry from box-
office by $ 90 million in total, 1.4% of the current box-office", and that's a
lower estimate from what the industry claims.

~~~
ekimekim
Speaking as an Australian, the anecdotal effects I see as contributing to high
piracy rates are:

* Online content is more expensive in Australia. This isn't due to taxes or anything, Australians just get charged more for the same products.[1]

* Content is very often not available legally in Australia by any means, or is delayed for months or years from the US release.

* (this one may be old, and is certainly actively changing) Poor internet speeds and data caps make streaming services not a viable option, whereas a download can be left running overnight so the final result can be stored and watched many times.

[1] [http://www.news.com.au/technology/australian-government-
rele...](http://www.news.com.au/technology/australian-government-releases-its-
report-into-it-pricing/news-story/d94bc5968b2dd690b2070cac903c3e58)

~~~
sqeaky
I think you have some causes and effect swapped. I suspect people pirate
because some things aren't available in your area not the other way around.

There are tons of cases where video game companies do things like release a
Russian translation on day 1 and for every other game from that studio it came
two weeks later, then for that one title Russian piracy is almost non-
existent.

~~~
ekimekim
> I suspect people pirate because some things aren't available in your area
> not the other way around.

Yes, that's what I'm saying. Listed above are what I believe might be causes
of high piracy rates, not effects.

~~~
sqeaky
Sorry, I misread you.

