

Bruce Schneier: Risk Intuition - gaika
http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2009/08/risk_intuition.html

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drewr
Not the focus of the article, but very poignant:

 _Children have surprisingly perceptive risk intuition. They know when parents
are serious about a threat and when their threats are empty. And they respond
to the real risks of parental punishment, not the inflated risks based on
parental rhetoric... There have to be real consequences._

~~~
andreyf
Hah, just had an argument with my mom over this the other day - I'm 23 (living
separately), my sister is 12 (living with mom), and her and my mom were
visiting. I had just emptied a piggy bank and my sister (12 yo) was counting
the coins. First my mom said "oi, those are dirty, you shouldn't touch them",
and was promptly ignored. She kept escalating her rhetoric, finally describing
the unimaginable diseases my sister could pick up. Still ignored, until she
raised her voice. At that point, I stepped in, and the argument turned into
whether or not I should question my mother's authority in front of my sis.
Whether or not my sister learned it, I still think that questioning authority
calmly and firmly is a great lesson. :)

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pwk
The concept of a "risk thermostat" is interesting -- people seem inclined to
maintain a more or less constant level of risk. I've noticed an effect that
interacts with that: my risk inclination seems to have some initial static
friction that changes to a lower level of kinetic friction once I'm moving.
Example: some years ago I was feeling a little hesitant to try snowboarding
because it seemed "risky" (I knew I'd fall a lot). The first time I tried it,
I was having so much fun that I pushed myself well into exhaustion and took
some crazy tumbles that didn't stop me from getting up and riding more. I
suppose my initial response might just have been an underestimation of the
"reward" part, rather than an incorrect estimation of the "risk" part.

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10ren
Aside: When I used to ride a motorbike, I found the combination exhilarating
of the more severe consequences of an accident, with greater ability to be
aware of it and greater ability to deal with it. Unlike a car, a motorbike has
a full field of vision, and you can also see over cars because you are higher.
It's also more agile: you can turn, brake and accelerate more quickly, it
being lighter; and of course you can pass through smaller gaps to get out of
trouble.

It's incredible fun.

But I limited my riding to a year, because you can't avoid some accidents, and
the consequences _are_ severe: a friend worked in prosthetics, and half of the
recipients are motorcycle riders.

~~~
bigiain
A friend of mine was in hospital for a quite serious motorcycle accident (as
in "lost half a leg" type serious), and was in a ward with 3 other motorcycle
accident patients. The four of them had a lot of fun, whenever any visitors
started questioning their intentions about continuing to ride, by pointing out
the the _next_ ward had four guys all of whom had fallen off ladders.

Yeah, motorcycling is dangerous - you're around 10 times more likely to be
hospitalised or killed per kilometer travelled according to local (Australian)
stats - but _life_ is dangerous, and not having fun isn't living...

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GavinB
One additional thing is that the punishments have to be realistic. If your
policy is to fire someone who is lax in security, your managers are likely to
cover up infractions so that they don't have to fire their employees.

You have to be willing to follow through.

