

The Gambler's Fallacy of Customer Loyalty - handshakez
http://handshakez.com/the-gamblers-fallacy-of-customer-loyalty/

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Articulate
I really like this post, but I think the take away from the Gambler’s Fallacy
is something different... I think it says a lot more about causation. Like the
reason it should land on red is because it landed on black before this... you
were close with your examples but I think it really says something more about
believing that the reason A is happening because of B when really it isn't
that clearly linked.

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handshakezkid
Great point Articulate! It's certainly true that causation (or, with the
Gambler's Fallacy, falsely-presumed causation) plays a part in the post, but
at the same time the importance of statistics cannot be overplayed. The
correlation between preexisting and current trends is strongly emphasized;
this can lead to that falsely-presumed causation you mentioned, and that in
turn can lead to people treading water and ultimately failing. We're both in
agreement that A doesn't necessarily equate to B though, and that's the
overarching message behind the Gambler's Fallacy in sales and business. Just
because a customer has bought from you before doesn't necessarily mean that
they'll buy from you again; you need to wow them by being obsessed with them
and their problems.

