

Use Probability Models to Predict Pebble Sales (and win a Pebble) - pospischil
http://blog.custora.com/2012/04/competiton-projecting-pebble-sales/

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mattmillr
I seem to recall reading somewhere that most kickstarter projects get the bulk
of their support at the very beginning and end, with a "trough" in the middle.
It seems like a good prediction model would take this into account, perhaps by
integrating data from a number of similar projects that have finished funding
(big-$$ games, other hardware projects, etc.)

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akavi
My suspicion is that the wave of support at the end is for projects that
haven't yet reached the funding threshold (thus, backers have an incentive to
push friends/family/twitter followers to also fund the project).

I'd be somewhat surprised if said final wave occurred for projects like this,
which blow past the threshold well before the deadline.

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jgeralnik
On the other hand it may be people who are on the fence about supporting or
not and with the time whittling down decide to go for it.

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gauravk92
As well that many people end up wanting to see if this is really going to get
the support and actually happen, because only then is it really worth pledging
their money.

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pdhborges
If I make the best guess by just looking at the current chart without using
any tool/model do I qualify for the prize?

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anuraj
My guess is $10m. We shall see what we shall see. I will extrapolate post
facto.

