
We’re Not Ready for the Next Epidemic (2015) - sidhanthp
https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/We-Are-Not-Ready-for-the-Next-Epidemic
======
scarmig
And "How to respond to COVID-19":

[https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/How-to-respond-to-
COVID-19](https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/How-to-respond-to-COVID-19)

~~~
bamboozled
"In any crisis, leaders have two equally important responsibilities: solve the
immediate problem and keep it from happening again. "

First line here got me.

In the past, I think this is what was expected of leaders; However, in 2020?
It feels like the definition needs to be updated.

I'm not so sure what people expect of leaders these days. I remember what
_was_ expected of leaders, now look at the type of leaders that are getting
elected and see if that first sentence makes sense.

Maybe in 2020, leaders are supposed to just tell you what you want to hear.

I'd even argue that it's poor leadership that got us here in the first place.
Yes there is a virus, yes it is spreading, could it have been handled better?
Most likely.

~~~
CobrastanJorji
I agree with your sentiment on what leaders should be, but I suspect your
glorious rosy past of yesteryear does not exist. Terrible leaders focused
mostly on staying in power have been a thing since the days of bread and
circuses.

~~~
bamboozled
I guess you're right in saying that I probably only based my expectations on
the defintition as written in the dictionary:

 _a person or thing that leads._

I actually wonder if the reason we have so many issues with leadership is
because the definitions of a leader or leadership are out of step with
reality.

We're basically tricked by the word and it's meaning.

------
robomartin
What frustrates me is how hard it is to make people understand this is a very
serious matter.

R0 = 2.2 and CFR = 2.5%

It only takes ten minutes on Excel to understand the potential horror those
numbers represent.

How do you communicate this to an audience that is mathematically inept to the
point that calculating tip at the restaurant is hard work?

The best I’ve come up with is to say that, starting with one person, under
ideal conditions, this could infect the entire world population in a month.
OK, yes, ideal conditions, I know. How else do you drive the point about
exponential/geometric growth?

I’ve had the conversation with a few people. It’s amazing to me how many of
them were completely dismissive.

Is it that hard for average folks to understand? Ignorance is bliss?

~~~
sky_rw
I've been trying with earnest to wrap my head around the answer to your last
question. I saw the writing on the wall 4 weeks ago when the initial numbers
started coming out and the cell phone videos of the CCPs response leaked
through the firewall. I've been telling my friends and family what these
numbers mean and what the implications of this are both medically and
economically. The response I get is either "Stop watching fox news", "if it
was really that bad big companies would be freaking out", "its just a flu",
etc.

I've come to the conclusion that, at least in the suburban USA, our lives are
just so routine and comfortable that most of us cannot fathom any circumstance
that would change it. We relegate such thoughts to the realm of fantasy with
zombie movies and the like. It's either business as normal, or a situation you
have no hope to prepare for so why bother. Not a mindset I share, likely
because I didn't grow up with the guarantee of core needs.

4 weeks ago people would say "why would I keep a stock of n95 masks" like we
used to all say "why would you bother locking a cockpit door".

~~~
bamboozled
In an Asian mega-city right now.

Most people also don't seemed panicked, so I don't think it has much to do
with suburban life. Which does seem way safer anyway because it's much less
population dense.

Not sure I follow your sentiment really?

~~~
robomartin
And they have ONE case:

[https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-
zealand/2020/02/coronavir...](https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-
zealand/2020/02/coronavirus-queues-at-supermarkets-as-panic-buying-ramps-
up.html)

Panic is one of these binary things. A group of people can go from normal to
freaked-the-hell-out-panicked at the flip of a switch. Pulling them back to
normal is nearly impossible. That's why you want to get ready before the
switch flips. Because, if you don't, you might just have to be out there with
them, and things can get ugly fast. I have zero interest in that, less than
zero, actually.

~~~
bamboozled
There is some times during this thing where I have actually panicked for sure.

Its the first time in a while I could feel myself teetering on the edge of
losing control and succumbing to a full blown panic attack.

Reading the news is actually pretty scary. Even the way individual cases are
being reported is freaky.

I wonder how I'd feel if the same thing happened for every freak accident, flu
death etc.

Not trying to down play the severity of the virus, just amusing how much we
can be influenced by the media.

~~~
robomartin
Yes, I know exactly what you mean. I don't know what might be available to
you. I would urge you not to watch CNN, they are in full destroy-Trump fear
mongering mode. It's sick.

We are in the US. We watch BBC World News most of the time. Aside from that,
the CDC (cdc.gov) is covering this well. Basically, if you can absorb
reasonably scientific material the science news providers are a million times
better than any news organization.

Here's an interesting YouTube resource:

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quDYb_x54DM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quDYb_x54DM)

------
orkohunter
Please edit and add [2015]

------
drenginian
Instead of preparing, Trump disbanded the US pandemic response service.

------
arthens
They really need to either moderate comments on the blog post or disable them
altogether.

------
tc313
(2015)

------
joe_the_user
Paywalled

~~~
trevyn
Bill Gates’ blog is paywalled? What? Did the link change?

------
sombremesa
This is far too optimistic. Where is the hard data that a vaccine could (even
in a completely sunshine and rainbows scenario) be "ready" as early as June?
The best I've been able to estimate is 18 months. This includes manufacturing
and supply of course - a vaccine is useless if you can't get it to people at
reasonable cost.

~~~
rodneyg_
I see what you’re saying. I can see speed being a factor... and maybe I’m
uninformed... but I’m 99% sure in a true pandemic cost will not be a factor.

~~~
chrisco255
Yeah Congress has already earmarked billions for this virus.

