
Tesla Executive Leaves for Waymo - dcgudeman
https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-executive-leaves-for-alphabet-self-driving-car-unit-waymo-1526160814
======
WisNorCan
The bigger picture is that Waymo is now the most interesting company in self-
driving technology. If you want to do real work that is the place to be. I
hear that people are also leaving Uber's efforts. I expect them to absorb the
best people in the industry and building a real business from here.

Waymo has established a multi-year technology advantage over Uber. The best
objections to Waymo winning are three-fold:

1) Google doesn't have the user-facing apps - The reality is that Google has a
far larger surface area than Uber to consumers. They own Calendar, Maps,
Assistant, Android, Gmail and each of these can be entry points into self-
driving. "I see you have an appointment in 15 minutes, want me to order you a
cab?"

2) Google doesn't have experience operating a physical business - This is
something they will have to learn. Google has the choice of
partnering/purchasing if needed to build fleet operations companies. There are
some unorthodox acquisitions to consider here (Avis?). However, Uber and Lyft
do not really have this experience either.

3) Google doesn't have a great track record of incubating new businesses -
Amazon has a far stronger track record than Uber of bringing up new lines of
business.

With the mismanagement of Uber over the past years, Uber is at significant
risk of missing the next technology wave, the way traditional taxi companies
missed the last shift. Uber might be holding the equivalent of second-
generation taxi medallions as the third generation takes off.

~~~
czardoz
How does Uber not have experience operating a physical business? They actually
have customer support etc (Google has it for minimal products).

~~~
WisNorCan
Answering the phone is very different than operating a local physical products
company. Mechanical failures, repairs, accidents, charging the vehicles,
vandalism, etc. etc.

Think about how hard it is for consumer companies to sell to enterprises.
Microsoft is terrible at consumer. Google is terrible at enterprise.

This is a much bigger leap than consumer -> enterprise. Uber and Waymo both
have a lot to learn here. That’s why I think companies like Avis etc are
potential unorthodox acquisitions that we will see.

~~~
mandeepj
> Microsoft is terrible at consumer.

care to explain more?

~~~
WisNorCan
IE, Messenger, Hotmail, Windows, Skype are all examples of products in the #1
position that Microsoft mismanaged and lost. Microsoft’s success in coming
from behind is even worse: Windows Phone, Zune, Spaces (!)

There are minor exceptions. Xbox was incubated in a different group and only
survived because they kept Microsoft’s crazy ideas out. Even there Xbox is
falling behind PS under Satya.

In Enterprise, Microsoft is incredible. Azure is serious competition for AWS.
Teams will take share in the slack category. Office is a monster business.

~~~
mandeepj
I'm sorry to say - you are a bit disconnected.

IE reincarnated as Edge

Hotmail -> Outlook (one of the best if not the best)

Windows (Hugely popular. Windows 10 is the best so far)

Skpye (Unreasonable baby cries)

Xbox one, Hololens - going good so far

~~~
havetocharge
What is Edge?

~~~
mandeepj
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Edge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Edge)

~~~
havetocharge
I see. Objectively, it has a long way to go in ways of adoption before it can
be deemed a success.

------
postmeta
WSJ uses Tesla articles to keep their old money media play alive, news at 11.
Hackers need not attend.

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god_bless_texas
Is working for Elon just awful? I heard SpaceX people flock to Virgin Galactic
because of this.

~~~
Robotbeat
It's harder work, if that's what you're asking. People who wish for more
work/life balance do tend to migrate to Virgin Galactic, etc. Of course, less
lucrative stock options and less exciting work.

~~~
SpecialistEMT
I think there's an added risk to the stock option from Tesla - the company's
future is very volatile - bubble based on Musk's persona

~~~
Robotbeat
Huge upside potential, too. Musk is really good at spotting opportunities and
taking risks. The downside is he often doesn't know how to leave well enough
alone and he takes risks. I think SpaceX does so well because Gwynne Shotwell
helps balance Musk's risk taking.

Tesla could go bankrupt (as GM and others have) or it could be worth a huge
amount of money if they crack automation and scale (and there are good
technical reasons why they might actually do that... traditional automakers
have not exhausted the trade space).

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lawrenceyan
You can see a clear correlation between the amount of Tesla stock being
shorted and the number of negative Tesla press that shows up on sites like
Hacker News / Reddit. It's surprising how blatant it is.

~~~
dbasedweeb
I can’t believe it, but I guess “correlation doesn’t imply causation” needs to
be said on a site that is nominally for hackers.

~~~
coolgeek
Also the possibility of confusing (reversing) cause and effect

~~~
lawrenceyan
The prior is assuming of course given the input that WSJ is biased towards
negative press against Tesla in general along with the massive short amounts
already, it would be in whoever's interest to try and ensure that they can
bring as much volatility to the situation in order to make a profit.

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Nokinside
Tesla has been losing executives. VP of finance, Chris Lattner (autopilot),
Kelty (batteries).

~~~
dandr01d
Chris Lattner was at Tesla for the blink of an eye

~~~
shanghaiaway
Yep, couldn't stand it longer. Says something about how bad working for Musk
is.

~~~
HNthrow22
see the interview with his first wife:

 _As we danced at our wedding reception, Elon told me, "I am the alpha in this
relationship." I shrugged it off, just as I would later shrug off signing the
postnuptial agreement, but as time went on, I learned that he was serious.

_...the will to compete and dominate that made him so successful in business
did not magically shut off when he came home. This, and the vast economic
imbalance between us, meant that in the months following our wedding, a
certain dynamic began to take hold. Elon's judgment overruled mine, and he was
constantly remarking on the ways he found me lacking. "I am your wife," I told
him repeatedly, "not your employee." "If you were my employee," he said just
as often, "I would fire you."

 _And no matter how many highlights I got, Elon pushed me to be blonder. "Go
platinum," he kept saying, and I kept refusing._

If that's how he managed his wife imagine what his execs deal with.

*[https://www.marieclaire.com/sex-love/a5380/millionaire-start...](https://www.marieclaire.com/sex-love/a5380/millionaire-starter-wife/)

~~~
JustSomeNobody
That is a textbook abusive relationship. Pathetic.

~~~
dethstar
Well, the guy claims he needs to be in a relationship to be happy. Not the
healthiest thing.

>If I'm not in love, if I'm not with a long-term companion, I cannot be
happy," he told Rolling Stone. "I will never be happy without having someone.
Going to sleep alone kills me. It's not like I don't know what that feels
like: Being in a big empty house, and the footsteps echoing through the
hallway, no one there -- and no one on the pillow next to you. F--. How do you
make yourself happy in a situation like that?"

[https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/elon-musk-
personal-...](https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/elon-musk-personal-
life-love-relationship-wife-marriage-happy-talulah-riley-a8058611.html)

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matte_black
What on Earth is going on at this company?

~~~
rco8786
Nothing. They’re just the focus of the media. Like shark attacks a few years
back.

~~~
rando444
Anyone else notice that it's also specifically the Wall Street Journal trying
to run this angle?

~~~
falcon620
That's funny, the Tesla fans keep hating on Bloomberg. Could it be that
everyone who writes critical pieces on their financials are hostiles?

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asdsa5325
Unsurprising, Tesla is going downhill fast... If a recession occurs before
they get their shit together, they will vanish.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Surely they’re going downhill as their Model 3 production rate accelerates /s

People leave companies, no news here.

I can’t imagine it’ll be too hard to find someone to replace this role. Is
Elon or JB Straubel dead? No? Carry on.

~~~
gamblor956
A bunch of high-level executives leaving a company in a short span is always a
bad sign. These executives were all privy to data that outsiders do not have
access to, and it seems that they all decided that the data is bad enough to
jump ship despite apparent signs that the ship is righting itself.

~~~
plankers
It could also mean that the project they were leading is transitioning into a
phase that they're no longer interested in working on.

Same thing happened as Waymo started ramping up a year or so ago and nobody
was freaking out about that.

~~~
gamblor956
Same thing happened to Theranos...time will tell whether Tesla is a Theranos
or a Waymo.

------
paulsutter
Personally I wish Elon would focus on The Boring Company and SpaceX. Tesla
just isn’t going to matter that much in the long run, it’s never going to
solve our transportation problems in the way TBC can.

I’d rather see 500,000 new homes in (or within 10 minutes of) San Francisco
and cars just won’t make that possible.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Tesla does not exist to solve just transportation issues. It exists to drive
down the cost of utility scale battery storage to allow for renewables alone
to supply power to grids.

~~~
paulsutter
You’re entirely right, but he’s taken the long path to get there due to
overdesign and it’s just eating up too much of his time. The model X was a
fiasco and the 3 isn’t looking much better. He’s solving too many minor design
issues and not shipping enough cars.

~~~
toomuchtodo
It’s my understanding that the Model 3 ramp is the fastest cold ramp in auto
production history. “Not looking much better” doesn’t describe the situation.

~~~
gamblor956
Considering the QC on the Model 3 has been extremely subpar, being the
"fastest cold ramp in auto production history" really just makes Tesla look
like the prime example of why you don't do a fast cold ramp.

If Musk had been willing to wait one more year to begin commercial production,
the Model 3 could have been _amazing_. Instead, it's a 90s era Kia with a body
and a better-looking body.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Besides fit and finish, multiple sources have showered praise on the quality
of the skateboard (battery, power components, motor, suspension, etc). Fit and
finish will improve, and major issues can be corrected in the field post
delivery.

Tesla didn’t have a year to wait. That’s why you sell to fanatics and those
passionate first. Early adopters are more forgiving. I’ll worry if quality
isn’t high after the preorders are cleared out.

~~~
gamblor956
Fit and finish are the hardest parts of the process to improve. The skateboard
is generally machined and put together by heavily automated/standardized
processes. Fit and finish can be automated, but the final quality control
steps are done by hand.

Fit and finish is also the most important elements to most buyers. Nobody
cares if the skateboard has oodles of praise if the dashboard panels are
misaligned and the window makes a squeaking noise and Bob next door has a much
cheaper car with a much nicer interior.

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wffurr
I will never understand why people care so much about execs. It's not like
they are the ones actually building and testing stuff or developing the new
technology.

~~~
Retric
Investors care because exec's have inside information and a mass exit is a bad
sign.

In the case of individuals it's mostly just noise, but investing is often
trying to read tea leaves slightly better than the next guy.

------
neonate
[http://archive.is/03Zon](http://archive.is/03Zon), though there isn't much
there.

------
sebringj
When you work for very intelligent and driven people, they tend to be
disgusted with incompetence or in my case lack of drive, which is the same
thing, I noticed. It is completely counter to what they are. This happened to
me when I did not have the same passion as one of my supervisors (as a remote
contractor working for other clients as well) and did not want to put the same
level of care/hours and extremism as this person had. The intelligence part
was debatable but he has his skills etc but I know he was certainly obsessed
with moving forward as fast as possible and was a standout in his company
because of it. You cannot blame him for his drive as in the end it brings
results and its who he is from the core. But of course, I disliked him and
still do. Regardless, so what. He still is doing well I'm sure. Elon is
probably the most amazing human being to ever have lived in terms of
intellect/drive/passion/ability etc that I've heard maybe besides Ghengis Khan
so of course he is going to be so much more like that to absolutely repel
others not inline with his pace and vision. He could be no other way.

~~~
xevb3k
What evidence can you provide that Elon is highly intelligent and skilled?

Really appears to have quite mediocre ability to me. Has focused on some quite
interesting problems, but mostly his ability seems like PR/marketing.

~~~
coralreef
Cofounded PayPal...started a reusable rocket company in SpaceX. Brought
electric cars to the mainstream with Tesla...was in a PhD physics program at
Stanford and dropped out.

Like, those results don't qualify to you as someone who is intelligent and
skilled?

~~~
xevb3k
Not “most amazing human being to ever have lived” as the parent poster
suggested, no.

I guess this isn’t the place to suggest it, but really in success like PayPal
there is a large element of luck at play. He maybe reasonably smart, but the
way some people treat him like the most amazing person who has ever lived is
ridiculous.

~~~
confiscate
sure "most amazing" is debatable

but that's not what you said. You said he is mediocre. What made you say he is
mediocre?

~~~
xevb3k
Hyperloop?

I don’t see this (or any of his other ideas) as coming from someone with an
abnormal level of intelligence.

He may have the ability to hire people who can execute well on ideas (though I
also think that Tesla’s achievement are over-hyped). He may have good business
sense, and the ability to raise money. But I don’t see him as having an
amazing intellect... so I’d be interested in evidence that shows that...

~~~
confiscate
Nice!

So you look at Elon's entire history of ideas, and the one thing that caught
your eye first was Hyperloop?

Why did you name the Hyperloop? Is Elon working on a Hyperloop company?

Those things you mentioned "hire people who execute well on ideas", "good
business sense", "ability to raise money". Those are medicore skills?

We don't know each other in person, but from online-chatting with you, you
sound like you have good intelligence. Can you do any of those?

~~~
xevb3k
Hyperloop is a mediocre (well, actually bad) idea. It indicates that Elon is
not some genius level engineer.

I think you underestimate the degree to which luck plays a role in the
development of companies.

~~~
Retric
Hyperloop as presented is a good idea, but perhaps not great idea.

High vacuums are expencive to maintain and take longer to achieve after a
leak, but would allow for faster speeds. They also force maglev or something
like it to achieve those speeds which is expensive. It also forces you to
carry an indecent air supply, and cooling becomes a significant issue.

At STP you just have a normal train which is limited to a few hundred miles an
hour.

Between those extremes you need to deal with some air but you can compress it
for passengers. Further, you can quickly pump down the air pressure using
fewer pumps. You can fly / use ground effect avoiding the mag lev issues.

Heat is really the largest issue, compressing air heats it as does friction,
and your passengers / equipment also generate heat. So, you would want the air
kept at very low temperates.

Why not just use nag lev? You get faster speeds and as strange as it sounds
lower cost per mile of track.

TLDR; Lots of useful trade offs.

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make3
the departure of one pretty low level executive makes valid news now?

