
How the internet helped crack the Astros' sign-stealing case - danso
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28476354/how-internet-helped-crack-astros-sign-stealing-case
======
remarkEon
I assume there are some baseball fans here on HN ...

This is, in my opinion, a watershed moment here for how Baseball is going to
deal with technology. After the Moneyball "revolution" lots of people, both in
the game and casual fans, talked about how technology would again
"revolutionize" the sport[0]. Things like player evaluations and injury
prediction + prevention were what was mostly talked about (this was back in
~2014-2015 or so). There really hasn't been much talk about this since then,
as far as I can tell, or it's been kept as a trade secret by teams. What's
happened with this Astros scandal is something else entirely. This was not the
future of the game we wanted, and there will need to be a philosophical
discussion had in short order about what we're going to allow in the future
(what they did was not).

Complicating all of this is that Houston winning the last game of the season
in 2017 was largely viewed as a "victory" for the stats nerds over the
traditionalists[1], and was predicted in 2014[2]. So the idea that the
"technology" they used to do this wasn't _just_ learning things other teams
couldn't about their own players, but essentially a gimmick to steal signs not
only casts a shadow on the integrity of the game but also calls into question
the methodology itself to a certain extent - though to be honest I think the
argument is pretty much over at this point on stats vs traditionalists.

[0][https://www.si.com/mlb/2014/07/08/billy-beane-technology-
wil...](https://www.si.com/mlb/2014/07/08/billy-beane-technology-will-
revolutionize-baseball)

[1][https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/10/24/houston-astros-sports-
illu...](https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/10/24/houston-astros-sports-illustrated-
world-series-prediction)

[2][https://www.si.com/longform/astros/index.html](https://www.si.com/longform/astros/index.html)

~~~
redis_mlc
> casts a shadow on the integrity of the game

MLB. FIFA. OOC. ... let me know when you can see a difference, lol.

~~~
remarkEon
Well, the latter two seem institutionally corrupt in a way MLB is not - at
least today.

~~~
LanceH
The feigned shock at steroids. The shakedowns of cities for ballparks while
offering a suite to the city council and other politicians. The corruption is
just a local flavor.

~~~
remarkEon
>The feigned shock at steroids.

Barry Bonds still isn't in the Hall of Fame. Neither is Roger Clemons. The
institution seems to be reacting appropriately in my book.

>The shakedowns of cities...

Okay, you got me there I guess. Which stadium are you thinking of though? My
understanding of the Braves stadium deal(most recent stadium deal that comes
to mind) is that the team is required to pay off the county's bonds raised
over some period of time (I'm not from Atlanta, so this is just my
recollection). I suppose Target Field in Minneapolis was kind of a raw deal. I
can meet you half way on thinking that a lot of these projects are in fact
crap for local communities, but I think we've seen this phenomenon in the NFL
more than MLB. Teams like the Rams and the Chargers basically held their local
governments hostage for a new stadium and when they didn't get one they moved.
This hasn't happened in MLB for a long time.

~~~
SamReidHughes
The MLB isn't in charge of who gets into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

~~~
remarkEon
I’m not sure what you mean. Veteran players are basically the ones who decide.
The system works essentially as a check on the institution of Baseball itself.
If you mean to say that owners and administrators don’t have much say then,
yeah, I guess you’re right. But I wouldn’t change the system as it exists
today.

~~~
SamReidHughes
Basically I mean that, yeah, and it's the writers who do the voting -- Bonds
and Clemens are on the ballot.

------
CaliforniaKarl
Jomboy Media is worth checking out, even if you don’t follow or care about
baseball. His breakdowns are fun to watch.

For example: [https://youtu.be/W1pJRRJntUo](https://youtu.be/W1pJRRJntUo)

------
incompatible
For the uninitiated, how do you steal signs by making a banging noise? What is
a "sign", anyway? What electronics are involved? The article doesn't explain
anything.

~~~
GlenTheMachine
During a game, the catcher and the pitcher have to both know what pitch is
being thrown so the catcher can catch it - it’s hard to catch breaking balls
unless you know to expect one. So the game has evolved that the catcher
normally “calls” games, eg decides what pitch the pitcher is going to throw.
Catchers make careers on how well they call games. They are the smartest
players on the field, and have to remember the stats and approaches for every
batter on the other team, not only for the starting pitcher that day but also
all the relievers that might be used in a game. They communicate the pitch to
be thrown to the pitcher using hand signals, normally with the non-catching
hand on the inside of their thigh so the batter can’t see the sign.

But anyone behind the pitcher can of course see the sign, and after seeing a
few tens of pitches at most can figure out which sign corresponds to which
pitch. Knowing what pitch is coming is a significant advantage to the hitter.

It’s legal for a runner on second to watch the catcher and convey those signs
to the pitcher, but in MLB it’s strictly illegal to use “technology” -
meaning, mostly, optics or electronics.

~~~
thawaway1837
To add to this, the Astros has basically installed cameras in their stadium
that allowed the coaches and players in the dugout to know which sign the
catcher has signalled (the dugouts are behind the catcher, so you cannot
normally see the catchers sign from there).

The dugout then used the drum banging method to convey that information to the
batter.

------
hncommenter13
I think the HN baseball fan crowd is the perfect audience for this paper,
entitled "A Mathematical Analysis of Catcher/Pitcher Encryption Schemes."

[https://courses.csail.mit.edu/6.857/2018/project/mlancast-
sa...](https://courses.csail.mit.edu/6.857/2018/project/mlancast-samird-mtwu-
Baseball.pdf)

~~~
remarkEon
Thanks, sharing this with my fantasy league.

------
tacon
If the Astros were using the standard public TV camera view, why can't there
be some real time image analysis that blurs the signs? If we can instantly
recognize millions of faces, it seems pretty simple to blur a catcher's hands
when making a sign.

~~~
interestica
There's no way they were using the TV feed - there'd be too much lag to be
useful. The 'bangs' were just way too fast. They might have been using a feed
destined for broadcast... Adding blur between camera and broadcast just adds a
layer of complexity. Nothing stops the team from installing their own camera.
The league shouldn't have to add technology censors to prevent a team from
cheating.

------
_31
As a long time baseball fan, the "punishment" is a joke. This is one of the
worst cheating scandals in baseball history and Rob Manfred (Commissioner of
MLB) basically gave a slap on the wrist. Every team/player in the league would
be willing to trade this "punishment" for a World Series title.

~~~
netwanderer3
They really should have stripped away Astro's championship title, not sure
what their justification was. Why would the Astros want to keep this
championship title in their cabinet anyway? To remind themselves and their
fans of what their team did that year?

------
wyxuan
I think the best part about the whole thing is that there are so many memes
accompanying the investigation.

I'm not sure however, that the internet really helped crack the case. Th
article shows that the internet came to similar conclusions as the real MLB
investigation.

~~~
wj
I read an article today from 2018 that mentioned the Astros banging trash
cans. Apparently MLB has known about these allegations for a while and didn't
investigate. It took it coming out on social media for them to finally launch
the investigation.

~~~
astura
Can you link to the article?

~~~
wj
Last paragraph: [https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-red-sox-warned-indians-
astr...](https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-red-sox-warned-indians-astros-
attempting-steal-signs-information-032027336.html)

------
SubiculumCode
I will just say this. I am a Dodgers fan and Houston's cheating may well have
ruined Kershaw's legacy, one of the best pitchers to have ever lived and
played baseball. Shame shame Shame.

~~~
freehunter
Similar for me as a Detroit fan with Justin Verlander. Half of me is glad to
see his World Series win wasn’t revoked, but the other half says he was party
to the cheating and should have been punished. But the shame is he’s one of
the best pitchers in the game _without_ cheating... why did he do it? Shame
indeed.

~~~
daseiner1
Well, yours is the converse, no? Kershaw lost in part to Houston's sign-
stealing, Verlander won.

~~~
rurban
And then Verlander lost against the Nationals, because they stole the signs to
him. This is the most plausible explanation for his losses. And the internet
didn't help there, rather the opposite.

------
S_A_P
A few questions: 1) at best this happens at~50% of the games. The Astros won
the series in LA that year. Did they find a way to cheat everywhere? 2) what
is the end game here? The Astros have won exactly 1 World Series. Hardly a
huge disparity. 3) do you think they’re the only team??? 4) what rules were
broken? 5) is it wrong for a base runner to scream change-up if they are on
2nd base? Disclaimer: I’m from Houston and of course I want the Astros to win
but I don’t think a huge advantage was had here. One could easily get just as
outraged by the Yankees having a bottomless bank account to pay their
salaries. They Yankees paid 218mm vs 168mm for the Astros. Both teams are on
the larger end of the spectrum but I would argue that smaller markets have a
huge disadvantage vs the major cities.

I’m disappointed that the Astros lost this year but I don’t feel compelled to
find a reason the Nationals beat us this year. At the end of the day our
pitchers failed(ahem Verlander) and our batters couldn’t hit the superior
pitchers in dc. Ironically the “cheaters” couldn’t cheat their way to a second
victory. This seems like another case of Twitter and social media amplifying
things that don’t matter.

~~~
sintaxi
> 1) at best this happens at~50% of the games.

That is an assumption. We don't know all the facts yet. Some are suggesting
the camera could have been nothing more than a smartphone and there is a
source from within the Astros org that say some of the players wore electronic
buzzers under their shoulder to signal the call to them. There is no reason to
rule out signals were known on the road as well.

> 2) what is the end game here?

Stop cheaters from winning titles and saving the sport from ruin like cheating
did to the sport of boxing.

> 3) do you think they’re the only team?

Probably not but both existing and former Astros speaking up tells us Astros
were doing it at an unprecedented level.

> 4) what rules were broken?

First of all sign stealing using technology goes all the way back to 1876.
Illegal sign stealing involves mechanical or electronic technology; the rules
regarding this have become more stringent over time and continue to evolve.
This is also why an 8 second delay was added to the broadcast feed.

> 5) is it wrong for a base runner to scream change-up if they are on 2nd
> base?

Screaming anything while the opposing pitcher is about to throw I suspect is
against the rules but stealing and signalling the signs in other ways is
permitted. This is typically done by the base runner using closed fist or open
hands.

> I don’t think a huge advantage was had here.

The Astros obviously thought it was enough of an advantage to break the rules
to do it. The Astros went from dead last in the AL in strikeout rate in 2016
to 1st in '17 and their strikeout to walk ratio was an extreme outlier
compared to the rest of the league.

> Ironically the “cheaters” couldn’t cheat their way to a second victory.

Ironic how? Teams were onto them by then. Once you know your opponent is
stealing your signs you can use that against them.

------
b06tmm
I don't see this as an issue, unless expressively forbidden.

The goal is to win, by all means necessary. Like war.

I'm almost 60 now, but in my twenties I thought "why don't teams have people
in the stands to do just this, steal the signs."

I was a phreaker back then and always wanted to call the Twins dugout just to
see if I could.

~~~
danso
Sports is explicitly not like war. There's actual rulebooks, and regulators
with the power to completely ban teams and players.

------
remote_phone
I’m waiting for machine learning to predict play calls for baseball and
football. It shouldn’t be too hard if it hasn’t already been done. Based on
the offensive coordinator and things like field position, etc it should be
easy to make predictions as to what that human would make based on past
choices.

I wonder if that would be considered cheating though If they only used past
performance and not real time signal stealing.

~~~
anigbrowl
Why not just use a cannon to shoot the ball?

Ideas like yours take all the fun out of play and ruin it for everyone else.
We all know we can build machines to do things better than humans, but so
what? It's the uncertainty and imperfection and second guessing that makes a
game enjoyable to watch or play in the first place.

~~~
akiselev
There's a lot of money and ego at stake in sports world. Enjoyment is a very
distant concern.

~~~
anigbrowl
Enjoyment is _why_ attention and money flows toward sports. Hence the
swingeing penalties now that this misbehavior have come to light. If the game
isn't relatable to enough fans it starts to die.

