

10 Ways We Get the Odds Wrong -- Our brains are terrible at assessing modern risks - lylia
http://www.psychologytoday.com/articles/index.php?term=pto-20071228-000005&print=1

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Goladus
Number four explains fear of flying, too. When you fly in a plane, you are
completely at the whim of the pilot and various crews. In a car, your actions
make a difference. I think that's a bigger factor than "spectacular and
unlikely."

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ibsulon
Salmonella doesn't kill you - it just makes you wish you were dead.

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michaelneale
Well I have had bad food poisoning. I did indeed wish for death.

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nreece
Reminds me of the book - Blink, which explores the power of the trained mind
to make split second decisions, the ability to think without thinking, or in
other words using instinct. It describes our ability to gauge what is really
important from a very narrow period of experience. In other words, spontaneous
decisions are often as good as - or even better than - carefully planned and
considered ones.

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dcurtis
Yeah, Malcom Gladwell is a great psychological economist.

The questions at the bottom of the article are fascinating-- it really puts
things in perspective.

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davidw
Gladwell is a journalist who happens to cite a lot of social science stuff,
not a psychologist or an economist.

I like his writing, but it tends to end up feeling like lots of anecdotes
strung together without too much actual meat, sometimes.

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pg
What difference does it make what kind of ist he is?

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robg
Gladwell is an excellent writer, but he does overstate his case in that book
to serve the interest of a very good, gut-level story. I didn't read the above
to ding him - just to set the record straight.

I feel very negative in this direction about Psychology Today - interesting
stories, but even less, much less, below the surface. Gladwell at least gives
footnotes and references actual researchers. He serves a critical function and
serves it very well. PT reads more like a tabloid of science journalism.

Regarding this article, people have won the Nobel Prize in Economics after
showing, at least twenty-five years ago, how bad we are at judging real-life
risks. The scientists doing that work? Psychologists.

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prospect_theory>

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wallflower
My sister's friend is an Emergency Room physician. After talking to her, you
would be scared to leave your apartment and do something risky like crossing a
city street.

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jonpappas
hmm

