
Coinbase Coronavirus Planning - coolswan
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1SRP4dnVCvKB7A5WXrESe-cL51i6_cg5nNGLNld6qch0/preview#
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anonsivalley652
Disclaimer: I think there's only a 5-8% chance of it becoming globally-
widespread, which is still a lot given its enormous _potential_ to kill
children and the elderly by the tens of millions globally.

The main issue in containment is seemingly healthy-but-contagious carriers are
unwittingly spreading the virus far-and-wide. In China and other places,
temperature monitoring checking-points are laughably-ineffective safety
theater that don't address the problem with a sufficient quarantine to close-
off certain regions sufficiently. It's this lack of quarantining travelers and
infected areas until they exceed the incubation interval to a sufficiently
narrow confidence interval that is playing a dangerous game of brinksmanship
with the world because of greed.

In this specific instance of Coinbase's plan, if 100 people are already
infected near their offices, that's much too late because surveillance of this
pathogen is always reactive based on presentations to hospitals, not proactive
anticipation of infections that exist at the current time. It would be wiser
to go to fully-remote working as soon as there are more than 4000 cases in any
one state or most than 2000 cases in two states because California is the most
populous state and SF is one of the most likely destinations apart from NYC.

A personal preparation Public Service Announcement™ would look like this:

0\. Be ready to self-quarantine _before_ it is widespread, since this
particular pathogen is easy to under-recognize. Stockpile a _reasonable_
amount of normal food and medication for say 3-5 months based on math (# of
meals * time), not guessing. Items that would get used normally anyhow. Panic
buying too much, too little or wrong products would be throwing money away,
taking them away from others who could've used them and/or being
un(der)prepared.

1\. Set sane, quantitive decision-point conditions to self-quarantine and
stick to it.

2\. PPE for individuals wouldn't really ever be necessary, most people don't
use them correctly and it takes supplies away from first responders and
tradespeople who need them. In the very unlikely circumstance that someone had
a life-threatening emergency during a pandemic, you can bet your bottom dollar
that an ambulance and ambulance crew is going to be fully decked-out in PPE
because they don't want to take any chances. Furthermore, a better solution
would be mandating quarantine of known infected individuals to stay away from
others rather than rudely and selfishly going out in public coughing and
sneezing on everyone else.

3\. Self-quarantining, should it ever become necessary, should also have a
decision end-point based on something reasonable like an acceleration of total
new cases falling rapidly towards zero (concave down). Waiting around for
absolutely zero risk would be wasteful.

