
Robot Car Wars: Nissan Jumps Into the Fray With Driverless Car by 2020 - olalonde
http://singularityhub.com/2013/09/09/robot-car-wars-nissan-jumps-into-the-fray-with-driverless-car-by-2020/
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redact207
I feel sorry for all those poor automotive marketers that can no longer pitch
based on how well a car handles, performs and drives. What a car actually _is_
will change once they're completely automated, particularly seating
configurations and ride comfort more than anything else.

Also the need to own a car diminishes, replaced with an on-demand go-anywhere
taxi service. Don't need a car? Don't need car garages. Don't need a driveway.
Don't need traffic lights or signals or pedestrian crossings.

Though there will be the transition period when a glitch launches some poor
sod off a bridge. The news will eat it up as how the technology can't be
trusted, but will ignore the statistics of casualties from manual vs automated
drivers.

The same technology will filter through to everything from the military to the
pizza delivery guy - just as it already has for the massive mining trucks
driving themselves around Australian mine sites.

The impact of a 100% driverless car on city layouts would be profound. At some
point I'm sure the OH&S arm of the governments will ban all manual-driver cars
on the road and such modern day classics we be held in showrooms or farmyard
sheds, available only on private roads where no insurer will dare cover.

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Qworg
Chris Bangle had the idea that future cars will be fleet based, but people
will own customizable interiors. These would deploy into the vehicle. You
could also have self-assembling cars - individual electric autonomous units of
drivetrain. Two wheels and an axle - you call up as many as you'd like.

While very future looking, I think these address both the ownership desire and
the efficiency benefits.

~~~
eru
But then you'd have to keep your interior around.

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rdl
I have a pretty low bar -- I just want something which can drive on I-5 (and a
few other interstates) in good weather without me actively controlling the
car, such that I could safely use a laptop or tablet. I'd still be a licensed
driver and in the seat ready to take over with 3-5 seconds notice.

If I can have that by 2020 in a car like the Model S AWD, I'd be quite happy.

The next big jump in functionality for me would be pretty far -- a car which
can operate genuinely autonomously, so I can get out and it doesn't require me
to find a parking spot. I imagine doing that in an urban environment will be
the last thing a self-driving car is technically or legally able to do.

Something which can self-drive for 30 minutes to drive from SF to PA doesn't
get me a huge amount. It'd be nice to be able to use a tablet or something
instead of driving, but it would be a lot cheaper/easier to just make a
halfway decent audio-only (and maybe trivial HUD and chording keyboard)
computer for the car, rather than self-driving tech. _that_ we could have done
15 years ago; self driving probably wasn't feasible until 5-10 years ago.

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glibgil
When driving from SF to Palo Alto you want to talk to a computer or perhaps
look at a computer screen through your windshield and type on a one-handed
keyboard? You are easy to please. I'd much rather have a wank from the back
seat of my self driving car. And then a nap.

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rdl
What I _really_ want is a transporter which instantly beams me from Palo Alto
to Seattle, never having to go north of Redwood City. I was trying to be
realistic.

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jkldotio
I think the main threat to the advancement of self-driving cars was always
going to be big companies without a product using lobbyists and regulatory
capture to hamstring those with a product. So an announcement like this from a
big player is a very good thing and will accelerate the product plans of the
others too.

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zizee
Absolutely, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the big car manufacturers
pursue both avenues.

Fully automated cars will decimate consumer demand for vehicles as people find
it much more practical to share vehicles when they don't have to stay in the
same place when you are not using them.

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arethuza
I don't think consumers are quite that rational - a lot of people I know,
myself included, would be far better of financially by using taxis and hiring
a car on the occasions when we need to drive a longer distance.

However, for that extra wee bit of convenience (and no doubt other purely
emotional factors) we all buy our own cars....

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zizee
Renting a car is inconvenient because you have to go somewhere and pick it up
and fill in forms, try to rip you off with insurance and petrol charges.

Taxi's are inconvenient as they can take a long time to arrive and are
relatively expensive for the time you are using them. They don't always turn
up when you request them because the human drivers have motivations of their
own. Added to this is some people don't love interacting with the drivers.

These factors are not a "wee bit" of an inconvenience. They are a pain in the
ass.

Driverless cars will solve a lot of these issues. They will arrive more
reliably, they will be far cheaper, they don't have a driver that makes you
feel uncomfortable if you don't want to talk. They will be ordered with a few
clicks of your smart phone.

Sure, some people will want to continue to own a car. But a large percentage
will opt for the the convenience of getting "short term rentals", especially
in big city's where parking is at a premium. How large a percentage? I guess
that is the point of contention. I think it will be larger than you think.

Personally, I can't wait to get rid of my car: [http://jamespmcgrath.com/why-
i-am-not-buying-an-autonomous-c...](http://jamespmcgrath.com/why-i-am-not-
buying-an-autonomous-car/)

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arethuza
Where I am the taxi service is about as good as it could be (iPhone app or
IVR, payment through Chip-N-Pin or account) - similarly I went for a while
renting cars and the would come and drop the car off at my office and pick it
up again from there.

I still ended up buying my own car.

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zizee
2 things. 1. You do not represent everybody. 2. Even the best current systems
are not representative of what automated cars will bring. What you are talking
about are still way more expensive than the automated solution will be (I have
to make some assumptions) and organising someone to drop the car off at a
specific time is not the same as being able to make the decision 5 minutes
before you need it.

At the end of the day, even if I am half right, car production will see a huge
drop.

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mkramlich
The value I place on an announcement that a certain product, especially a
bleeding edge tech one, will be available by 2020, is, well, close to zero.
Let's see it when/if it exists. Long term _precise_ predictions are about as
valid as long term precise weather forecasting. There are just too many
variables at play, too many actors in motion, too many random events that can
happen.

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eru
2020 isn't that long term any more.

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rwmj
I'm looking forward to the car I buy next year being the very last car I have
to drive. For me, driving is stressful micromanagement which I don't want or
enjoy doing.

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vermontdevil
As long as they don't install that automated robot in the taxi from Total
Recall, I'm all for this.

I can see how traffic flows would dramatically improve if all cars were
automated. Biggest factor for traffic is human driving.

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ladzoppelin
So basically car companies have to decide in electric, driver-less
technologies or both to be competitive in the future. Will driver-less tech
kill the electric car movement?

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ramidarigaz
I don't think the two technologies are mutually exclusive.

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arethuza
I think they might work rather well together. For example where I live I doubt
there will be charging points at street level for a long time (if ever, due to
conservation restrictions) - but if a self driving electric car can take
itself off somewhere else to get charged at night or during the day then it
might make things rather more practical.

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andygates
Exactly like a big Roomba: do your work, go off to charge itself, come back
for more.

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fsckin
A big Roomba with valet service everywhere.

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ZoF
Also; it won't be a vacuum.

