

Ask YC: To continue, or not to continue ... how do you know? - NSX2

I've been trying to put together a startup for a bit more than a year now based on an idea I've juggled in my head for about 6 years or so. At about the same time as I had the idea, I was able to observe it's application in an area where most people who would be capable of developing the idea would never even think to look. For the longest time I've had the hardest time even getting people to understand the relevance of what I was talking about. Plus finding people to help develop it is challenging as programmers seem to be in short supply these days.<p>I was just about to shrug the whole last 6 years off as a huge waste of my life, but I just learned that IBM recently put together a research group specifically dedicated to this idea. But no matter how much money or manpower they have, I know enough about this area to know that they missed some windows of observation that will neve be repeated, and I can count on one hand the people (aside from myself) who have intelligently documented this phenomenon and have given it enough thought to gain some possibly practical insight into the topic. So in a way, I finally feel vindicated.  As weird as the idea is, at least I'm not the only one who thinks it may have some profitable, practical application.<p>To throw in the towel in this uphill battle, or not?  Or pick up the phone and call IBM and see if they'll give me a consulting gig? In other words, something that 99% of people I've come across have considered a completely useless area of specialty has suddenly become interesting and I feel like I have the advantage since the insights I've gained are the result of unique events that will never be replicated.<p>I feel vindicated, yet the last 6 years or so have been soooo frustrating trying to convince people of something that seemed so intuitive and obvious to me, but left most people I spoke to scratching their heads.  And yet, I imagine that in the next few years, even more people will be looking into this area.<p>Anybody have any ideas?  Any perspective and experience in a similar position would be appreciated.  The "I told you so" factor is good ... but I've spent soo much time and personal resources on something that has progressed at a glacial pace. I guess what I'm saying is, throw in the towel and call IBM, or keep trying the startup attempt route?
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jyu
You spent 6 years on this idea with nothing to show for it[red flag]. You say
your bottlenecks are programmers, and that you couldn't convince anyone to
join you [red flag]. Why did they not buy into it?

Instead of having you convince people, why not have some evidence to do the
talking for you? Learn to put ideas into UI flow charts, functional specs.
Show a paper prototype to customers and see if it is something they would pay
for. Do whatever you can so that other programmers won't look at you like a
"dreaded idea guy that wants 99% equity."

As for call IBM or try the start-up route, I would at least call them to see
where they are with their research.

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thomasswift
Here's my take on the question as well as few of your responses throughout.

Stop worrying about programmers. If you have been toying with this idea for 6
years, take another one year and learn how to program. if you're cash strapped
there are plenty of online tutorials and good old manuals. If have some cash
outsource it to india or elance. if people are paid with money, they sometimes
tend not to 'care' what they are working on, but give results.

The fact that IBM is doing research in this field means that they think that
it might be worth it to work on this.

I think you need to act on it and if you spent that amount of time mulling it
over, checking into things. get it done and see what people think, let the
market decide. If someone doesn't get it, explain to them why they should.
people thought blogs were stupid, all the other search engines didn't buy into
google, now they wish they had.

I was in a similar thought process when i started my site, after i started it
i kept coming across competitors i never even heard of. the fact that people
are using my site and getting results was my 'vindication', after all there
are a lot of other services that guarantee so much but didn't work for some
people.

as far a i know ideas are worthless. pg talks about it some where. put it out
there and see what happens, if IBM looks into what you are doing and blatantly
copies you, sue them, but expect a long drawn-out legal battle that you won't
win.

Lastly, people might have a hard time helping you out here if you don't talk
about your idea. People might be interested in helping you out, by closely
guarding your idea people might not help out.

------
SwellJoe
If you couldn't pull it off in six years, do you think another year or two
will be enough? Do you think you can pull it together faster than IBM (and the
dozen other competitors that will spring up once IBMs work becomes more widely
known)? Ideas are worth practically nothing--you have no monopoly on your
idea, unless it sucks, and even then, you probably aren't the only person
working on it.

I ran my previous business for nearly seven years, before throwing in the
towel. It was profitable for about six of those seven years, and it kept me in
food and houses...but it wasn't a success, by my definition, and I won't twice
make the mistake of continuing a business that I don't believe can win in its
market...not just get by, but win. Perhaps you're not making that mistake, but
I'd suggest you change your tactics immediately. Six years is an awful long
time to have nothing to show.

------
omakase
Why don't you share your idea. This is might be a great place to find your
tech co-founder?!

I don't understand why many people are so determined to keep their ideas
secret a secret. First off odds are somebody has also though of the same idea.
Not every great opportunity is immediately obvious in the early form of the
idea. An idea alone does not make a killer startup imo -- execution is very
important. Second, if only you have the expertise to make this idea work then
all the more reason to share it and hope to find someone that buys into your
dream.

Just my two cents worth. From my experience there is nothing more frustrating
then not iterating towards your goal.

------
Hexstream
One solution is to continue trying; Another is to "sell out" to BigCo;

Yet another is to publish your idea and possibly get hero status when someone
that understands the relevance of your idea and has the necessary
resources/skills to make it happen does so. You'd probably feel good about
those 6 years spent thinking about it and researching it not being completely
in vain.

I'm a bit freaked out thinking that great ideas can die with their originator
if they never publish...

~~~
NSX2
Or ... Or ... OOOORRR - you just gave me another idea in a way: What if I go
up to BigCo and _THREATEN_ to publish it online for free, thus rendering their
money spent on research/subsequent patent-based revenue streams completely
useless? Just walk up to IBM and say, "I know what you guys researching,
here's what you'll discover, now pay up or I'll write a white paper and just
put it on the internet ... or mail it to Microsoft or whatever!"

And since the legal departments of most major corporations use game theory in
analyzing transactions, their lawyers would easily tell them it's in their
favor to pay me what I ask for just to get me to agree to shut up.

That's just crazy enough to possibly work. I wish I could up vote you like 20
times for inspiring this thought.

~~~
Hexstream
As far as I can tell, it's probably better for your sanity to end your
involvement with this project, one way or another.

------
srp
You did not start a company in 6 years. You have been giving excuses (probably
valid) for most advice that people here are giving you. Don't suffer anymore.
Call IBM and ask for a job, show them you know more shit about this than all
of them put together. If you get hired atleast you will be working on
something you really like and also get credit for that.

------
playing_with
You have a market opportunity validated by IBM, with a 6 year head start in
research. Based only on what you've written, with proper support you should be
able to kick ass in an important market faster than they can. What's not to
like?

If what you know is as important as you say it is, then either (a) IBM should
be happy to pay you a handsome sum for it, possibly without needing you to
commit an endless day job, or (b) you will be able to raise money and finally
get that startup off the ground, provided that you can convince investors of
your personal ability to start the company. Both of these options are better
than what you had on your plate before IBM joined the fray, so I am puzzled by
the attitude that comes across in your writing. You sound like you're sulking,
which is not only very unattractive to any would-be co-founders or investors,
but also contradictory to a rational account of your situation: didn't you
just "win"?

* Also, _talking_ to IBM need not imply agreeing to what they want. Find out what they'd offer for your expertise, and what kind of commitment you'd have to make. If it sounds good, take it. If not, do it yourself. You don't lose any of your advantage until you actually spill the beans. Certainly don't use threatening language. Simply based on how you've written this posting and responded to comments, I already have a strong gut-based bias against working with you.

------
rrival
I once spent 2 years on an idea that never got off the ground. I wouldn't do
that again. At 6 years you should either do it right now and stop screwing
around (what was that post? Do it fucking now?) or put it to bed forever. The
try and fail route is more rewarding imho.

~~~
NSX2
But what if on the last day of the second year, just as you were about to say,
"The hell with this", you found out that people are just starting to look into
it? Surely all the insight you gained over the course of your 2 years of
trying is useful - question is, what to do with it? Keep plugging away, or
"sell out" and go the corporate route?

One of the guys running the project works at an office on Madison Ave. I'd
love to start a startup based on this, because I just _know_ it'll be cool,
yet I can't say since finding out about this recent development I haven't
spent, oh, 5 hours or so since fantasizing about what it would be like to pay
off all my credit cards, have health insurance, benefits, etc. and go to work
on Madison avenue near Central Park every day.

And instead of arguing with people about the idea, I would be in an
environment where people who understand it would appreciate the insights I
have. Plus they have a pretty big budget to play with from what I understand.

Just getting paid to do what I've been doing for fun ... and appreciated for
once instead of seeing the usual "What the _hell_ are you talking about?" look
on people's faces when I've tried to discuss it.

> The try and fail route is more rewarding imho.

I suppose you're right in a way. Maybe both? Maybe, "I've tried, it didn't
work out because of timing, but now I can apply my insights and sell out in
style!" (?)

------
mixmax
I've had a similar experience that you may learn from.

In 96 I did my first startup, based on an algorithmic way of sorting links.
Basically somewhere in between Google and del.icio.us. Me and my partner
thought that Altavista, which at the time was the best search engine out
there, fell short. We secured seed founding in the amount of ca. $100.000 and
developed a working prototype of the technology. After this we needed venture
capital to create and promote the product. This proved impossible to get. We
talked to every VC out there, but the result was the same: "nobody needs
another search engine", and "you can't make money on that" I was, however,
convinced that the idea was sound so I carried on for almost 1½ years after
funding ran out. In the end I had to give up.

It seems to me like you are in a similar situation.

Based on my experience what I think you should do is assess the situation
seriously, and have someone you trust help you do this. When you're in the
middle of it it is really hard to see the pitfalls and shortcomings of an
idea. Look at what alternatives you have, try and write them down with pros
and cons of each. Then take a decision. And do it.

Most important: Once you've made the decision don't look back.

------
NoBSWebDesign
Perhaps one of the reasons that you haven't been able to drum up interest is
because you won't share what it is. If you indeed have this great knowledge
and insight that no one can replicate, then there should be absolutely nothing
holding you back from telling us what this idea or field is. This would really
allow us to help you in a way that is meaningful.

Another observation I'd like to point out is that in 6 years, you could have
learned to program and done it yourself. I've learned to program and started 3
companies in the past 4 years.

So, my question for you is, do you really believe in this idea enough to do
what it takes to make it happen? If not, then go to IBM and milk what you can
of it.

------
izak30
OK, I may be missing something, but the fact that they put together a research
group doesn't mean that they just started; or that the other people in the
research group are less interested or motivated or experience than you. Maybe
explain your special circumstances.

When I started, I was initially a bit distraught at the fact that there were a
lot of people taking, and making a lot of money in my space; Everybody with
any experience told me "They are solidifying the fact that there is value in
that space, go do it better"; If you honestly believe that you can do it
better, and you have the option, eh, why not?

~~~
NSX2
Well, they could be motivated and interested, but I doubt they have the
experience, otherwise they would have, with their resources, started a long
time ago.

About the do it better part, a bit harder. They have resources, but if they're
just now starting to figure out what to do ... I know exactly what to do, but
... kinda hard to do it. So far it's a draw outcome wise, but they're making
nice salaries doing something I like, meanwhile I lose interest in my gig
while I spend more and more time doing this as a side project for free.

------
rms
What's your idea?

~~~
NSX2
How does that make a difference? Let's just say it's something that I know
more about than however many PhDs they have looking into it and no matter how
smart they are or what their budget is, it will be impossible to replicate the
conditions that led to the insights I've gained about why things developed as
they did and how to apply it to the business world.

Not saying it's because I'm smarter or anything, it's just a freak accident
that resulted from my background and personal interests which came together in
some unexpected ways to give me insight into what was worth paying to in this
area while most people would have dismissed the whole area as not worth paying
serious attention to to begin with.

So - question is:

a) Screw it, it's taking too long

or

b) It may be an uphill struggle but this is a good sign that it's at least
worth continuing

~~~
aswanson
Think about your life now, and your life at 75. What decision do you think
your 75 year old self would wish you had made? Do what the old man tells you
to do.

~~~
NSX2
But that's the thing. My life now sucks because I've spent most of my spare
time researching this. And progress has been so slow. Friends have drifted
away, etc.

If I give up and sell out, at least I'll have a comfy position at a
respectable company where people smarter than me would respect what I have to
offer because I have 6 years worth of thinking about the problem on them.

But the startup route ... hell I can't even find any programmers to put a demo
together ...

I could make a career out of this "there" ... or just keep fumbling in the
dark making teeny tiny progress (if any) while my personal/professional life
suffers.

I don't know anymore. That's why I posted this, I guess.

Quite frankly the "75" year old me is saying, "Do what you want, but keep in
mind you're going to need good health insurance as you grow older."

~~~
aswanson
_If I give up and sell out, at least I'll have a comfy position at a
respectable company where people smarter than me would respect what I have to
offer because I have 6 years worth of thinking about the problem on them._

No they won't. You'll be a part of a dispirited bureauacracy, and nobody will
care. They probably won't even finish the project.

Your best bet is to get a bunch of young college age programmers to work with
you. They are unemployed and are ready to hit it out of the park. If I was in
NYC I would hear you out and try to help. Start looking for talent where the
people are hungry.

~~~
NSX2
> our best bet is to get a bunch of young college age > programmers to work
> with you.

Columbia couldn't seem to care less, and the entire NYU structure has so far
gotten ... hold your breath ... 2 resumes. Only one of which was remotely
relevant, but not experienced enough to take initiative on this.

And since I'm not a programmer, I don't have the experience to provide
guidance in that department.

I don't know why, but NY is not very start-uppity at all. People here
fantasize about going to work for the IT dept. of Morgan Stanley or something.

~~~
trevelyan
Give up. You're six years into a development project that requires programmers
but you don't have any programmers. You seem to think that a company will hire
you because you have experience - if your work is really that valuable why
haven't they hired you already?

Get a job and continue to work on this in your spare time. Fund development
and be smart about making what you build as generally-useful as possible (an
enabling technology rather than a solution). If the market pans out for this
other company, there will be opportunities for you... assuming you executed.

------
Prrometheus
I’ve had a similar frustration, which is why I’m learning to code. I’ve never
really wanted to code per se, but I want to be able to do things, to mock up a
prototype. People seem to understand ideas better when you show them something
than when you tell them something, and people want to work with other people
who can add value.

And hey, I like applied math, so I’ll probably enjoy coding well enough.

------
aneesh
If you haven't done it in 6 years, I don't think you care enough about this
particular idea. I'd be more than happy to be proved wrong though :)

~~~
NSX2
If I didn't care I think I would have shrugged it off a long time ago. Not
trying to do it until recently has been more the result of massive amount of
change in this area which I found I just barely kept up with. I just barely
got to the point a year ago or so where I had time to reflect and think how
this can translate into something useful.

So it was more like 6 years observation and thinking in a sort of real-world
lab experiment, and only the last year or so of "apply lessons learned".

But since I'm not a programmer, and most programmers I've come across are
working on their own projects, I couldn't figure out exactly how to proceed
... and based on the limited feed back I got, whether it was even worth
proceeding or if I was just fooling myself and seeing an oasis.

Plus regardless of whether I cared enough, now that I found this out I realize
it's a valid thing to more than just me. So now I care more. It's just been a
long, unrewarding (except the intellectual curiosity part), clumsy, guideless
trip so far.

My "adult" self tells me to give up and move on, or perhaps profit from it by
working for "the man" ... but then again, what if I wind up 10 years ago in a
situation where I say, "Dammit - I should have tried for just one more year -
but instead I gave up and _now_ look what happened - it took off right after I
gave up and somebody else is doing it."

------
misterbwong
Your situation is seems similar to Guy Kawasaki's Truemors experiment. You
have something that you believe is interesting/useful but the market didn't
believe you. IBM looking into it signals a market change in your favor. Since
that's the case, I say do it.

However, it sounds like you need two things (er...people). A star programmer
and a star evangelist. The first can be had (for a price). The second is
harder to find. Either you need to become one or you need to hire someone that
already is one.

Reference: <http://blog.guykawasaki.com/2007/06/by_the_numbers_.html>

~~~
NSX2
Well, these are good points. I guess I could do the evangelist part or let
someone else do it, but really I think it could speak for itself. As for the
article in your link, I could be wrong since I'm not him, but something tells
me his reputation had something to do with that "I got my application built
for $12,000" equation.

Even if the market hasn't changed yet, I'd say that them devoting
brainpower/budgets into looking into it full-time might meand that they, too
suspect it may change this way. Quite honestly I can't believe it didn't
change this way a long time ago.

------
rms
Hey, you have "email me" in your profile info, but a feature of this site is
that the email box in your profile only shows up to administrators. So you
need to write your email address again in your about me.

------
Prrometheus
Do what you can to implement your idea, even if you make less money off of it.
People seldom have only one good idea in life, and then you can point to that
implementation as an example of what you can do next time around.

------
curi
Why not call IBM? You might enjoy it. More resources. Maybe you can make
progress faster.

Going it alone is hard. It's necessary if no one agrees with you, or no one
else would do it right. But here? I don't see the compelling reason not to
team up with IBM. You'll cooperate with people and see valuable work done;
you'll be part of something good and effective.

~~~
NSX2
That might work. If it doesn't, I'll threaten to publish everything online for
free, thus negating their own efforts and rendering their money spent into a
black-hole of no return.

~~~
curi
if you haven't noticed, your thread is dead. also my votes don't count now
like rms'.

btw don't make threats lightly, and maybe you shouldn't post about them in
public in advance.

edit: i don't know why it's dead. and your reply to this is dead too and i
can't reply to it. but the parent of this comment is not dead.

