
Americans' fear of losing their jobs grows - hhs
https://www.axios.com/americans-jobs-surveys-fannie-may-ny-fed-7d3616d1-59c5-440a-bff7-f0fe1e283fde.html
======
glitchc
I think this reflects a general erosion of trust between employers and
employees, which I blame Corporate America for. It used to be a tacit
agreement in the workforce that if you worked hard, the boss and the company
would take care of you. This illusion has been shattered first by the
employers (outsourcing, at-will employment, gig economy), and now the
employees (ghosting, switching firms without notice).

The lack of trust on both sides engenders the feeling that any promotion is
unlikely and every position uncertain, so folks always have one foot out the
door. Once the trust is gone, it takes a long time to rebuild, so even if
corporations changed tack now, it's likely that employees will continue to
distrust them for the foreseeable future.

Edit: Clarity.

~~~
Ensorceled
> This illusion has been shattered first by the employers (outsourcing, at-
> will employment, gig economy), and now the employees (ghosting, switching
> firms without notice).

This wasn't an illusion, companies actually did take care of employees and had
pensions and full-time jobs and retraining and stuff.

Also, ghosting and employees bouncing is a symptom of the employers not
providing any loyalty to their employees. Boomers and GenX stayed for 30 years
when they had pensions, Millenials would too.

~~~
lotsofpulp
Is it possible that the existence of companies themselves is subject to more
volatility? How can they provide stability when they themselves have unstable
sources of income?

I've only been around for a little more than 3 decades, but I've seen many
markets and businesses be transformed. Vastly fewer numbers of travel agents,
many retail establishments, tv channels, secretaries, hotel front desk, self
check out are needed. Not to mention the effects of a drastic drop in
birthrates.

[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/04/business/shrinking-
stock-...](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/04/business/shrinking-stock-
market.html)

~~~
mjevans
That's just a reason why all of the benefits need to be government (and taxes
on corporations to pay for them) backed things that are retained across jobs.

~~~
eikenberry
They don't need to be government backed, just not tied to an employer/job.
Much like current retirement plans are not tied to a specific company.

~~~
brewdad
401k is government backed. The name itself refers to the law that brought them
into existence. Just as Roth IRAs are named for the Senator who proposed them.
Without the backing of the government, your retirement plan would solely
consist of what you save and you'd be taxed on it all along the way.

~~~
kyleperik
I'm not sure that's what was meant by government backed. The government
doesn't pay for your retirement fund, a Roth IRA just doesn't charge tax on
withdrawals.

~~~
mjevans
My intent was the entire benefits provisioning package outsourced to the
government. This way irrespective of if heath coverage (it's not really
insurance, which is a separate debate), paid time off of all kinds, and all
other pre-tax line items are an entirely separate income stream and go over to
the government managed pool of resources.

The compensation rate for all such items might thus become far more
standardized, and all of the bureaucratic conformance for such items would be
there as well.

This would be an exceedingly small business friendly move as suddenly a lot of
the headaches of employing someone would just be paid for with a simple 'tax'.

It would also be very worker friendly as all of those things and seniority/etc
would similarly be paid for with that 'tax'.

This does assume that there's a uniform allocation of resources per employee
(I know there isn't today), or that there's a standard appreciation track for
employees (there isn't today)... or that there might be multiple standard
ranks of benefits (which would need to be more clearly advertised in job
descriptions)...

However everything really would be easier for everyone if we actually had this
system; the only entities that would benefit from the status quo in a
meaningful way are large corporations with enough employees to justify full
time HR and legal staff.

------
cubano
I've stopped fearing losing a job because, frankly, it happens so often as a
remote webdev I basically never stop looking.

In fact, I am currently unemployed after I rather unwisely completed a 20-week
job in 11, and I was literally given no notice and a week's pay.

So now its back to the Upwork slog and trying to convince someone (again) that
yes, since I have been a professional programmer for 25 years I can _for sure_
fix those database issues and add those rather pedantic features to your app
or website.

Like I often want to shout..."Do you think I'm lying when you read the years
and years of experience on my CV that literally lay out me fixing the same
issues that you have, and much much more complex ones as well?"

Trying to pin the "blame" (whatever that even means) will get you
nowhere...it's like blaming the "wind" when a hurricane comes and blows off
you roof. Yes, the "wind" did cause your roof to fly away, but it was simply
the endpoint for a huge number of directly connected and unconnected forcess,
too many to measure, that were in place for that bit of wind to do its dirty
work.

I feel the only sane way to look at work nowadays is to always have an eye out
for opportunities that may work career-wise, and get better at interviewing.

[edits]

~~~
wccrawford
"Do you think I'm lying when you read the years and years of experience on my
CV ..."

Yes, they do. Because so many people _do_ lie on their resume and hiring a
liar is a very costly mistake. It doesn't matter that most people tell the
truth... The ones that lie are just too much of a risk.

When my father was looking for a new job, he would walk into the interview and
tell them all the problems they were having. When they asked how he could
possibly know that with so little information, he would tell them it was
because everyone who was hiring him had those same issues.

This helped reinforce that he understood the issues and had fixed them in the
past.

Perhaps some similar prescience on your part could help you answer their
questions quicker and easier? It's almost a party trick, but it really did
seem to be effective for him.

------
intopieces
My fear never went away. As someone who graduated at the very beginning of the
Great Recession, I have a constant feeling that this cannot be forever.

~~~
scruple
Even prior to that, many of us watched our parents _very unceremoniously_ lose
their "job for life" jobs in the 80s and 90s. The illusion of loyalty to an
employer and job security went up in smoke with those layoffs, for me
personally.

~~~
foenix
And statistics don't apply to the individual. I'm a 3rd generation programmer
and watched my own father get the boot by his company just because they wanted
to "restructure to Chicago". 27 years at that job -- it defined where we put
our roots down.

I really enjoy the people I work with, but I never take stability for granted.
Ensuring I'm always updating my resume and taking a couple interviews a year
is part of my professional ritual. If it were feasible, we'd move elsewhere,
but we both have good social networks and roots here -- which is arguably more
"expensive" to a working couple in their early thirties than gold.

~~~
noneeeed
Similar experience here. 25 years at a "job for life" and he got a carriage
clock. A couple of years later we move to the other side of the UK. A couple
of years later they shut down that office making dad redundant.

I am under no illusions about any company I might work for, no matter what
size or how much I like the individuals I work with or for.

------
SamReidHughes
The September who is hiring thread is much smaller than last year’s. Employers
are cutting back.

------
tathougies
Given how low unemployment is, it makes sense there are more people who fear
job loss. In the past, more people were unemployed and thus could not feel
afraid of losing something they didn't have.

------
newnewpdro
We live in a disposable world now, that extends to both employees and
corporations/employers. Everything's far more ephemeral than it used to be.

------
ramphastidae
I always thought job loss was something that happens to other people until I
got laid off despite being an ‘A player.’ Now I assume it is just a matter of
time no matter the role.

This is the reality for everyone under at-will employment. Even if you are the
best at your job, outside circumstances like changes in strategy, funding and
leadership can make you a target for ‘managed offboarding.’

~~~
mikelyons
What other types of employment are there?

~~~
ramphastidae
Contract employment? Unions?

~~~
mikelyons
Can't contracts always be terminated or union workers laid off?

~~~
ramphastidae
It depends on the specifics of the contract and the union's collective
bargaining agreement, but plenty of these types of agreements exist where
employment is not considered at-will.

------
mitchus
Interesting that the two data sources used concern housing and consumer
credit, not employment.

~~~
Someone1234
Employment figures don't tell you much about consumer confidence.

Decreased employment would be an indicator of an actual economic downturn,
this is focused on people _fearing_ an economic downturn which is very
different.

------
fdavison
Because we are near full employment and they now have jobs to lose? From this
morning's Washington Post: "For the first time, most new working-age hires in
the U.S. are people of color"

[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/for-the-
firs...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/for-the-first-time-
ever-most-new-working-age-hires-in-the-us-are-people-of-
color/2019/09/09/8edc48a2-bd10-11e9-b873-63ace636af08_story.html)

------
matz1
That's why we need universal basic income

~~~
Someone1234
UBI is an interest concept but it wouldn't solve this. If you go from e.g.
$5K/month (job) to $1K/month (UBI) you'd still have to adjust your living
standards (and if people expect to lose their jobs, even with UBI, they'd
still make more cautious decisions which would still trigger the same
indicators).

UBI and other social safety nets are "good ideas." But they aren't a one size
fits all solution to every problem. It won't restore consumer confidence.

~~~
transreal
The point of UBI isn't that you will live off of $1000/month. Americans
generally don't want to live off the government dole, they want to work hard.

Perhaps they want to start their own businesses and live the American dream of
self sufficiency. But for most, this is out of the question unless you come
from a well to do family, so you are forced to work a crappy job for many
years just so you and your family don't starve.

If everyone gets UBI, you suddenly have choices. You can finally start that
business you've been dreaming about if your family invests their UBI in you
for some time, or if you get 10 friends together (if you have no family). And
if the business fails, you're not suddenly in debt to a bank and having to
declare bankruptcy and ruining your credit.

Or if starting a business is not for you, you can feel free to tell your boss
you're unhappy, because if you're fired, you're not suddenly unable to pay
rent (depending on where you live, you may need to save up a few months of UBI
for this). You won't be so mentally distraught at the idea of 0 income, and
corporations won't be able to so brazenly take advantage of workers, keeping
them on their toes with the constant threat of the axe falling down because
quarterly profits were down 10%.

~~~
dragontamer
Starting a new business during a recession is a fool's game.

The problem with a recession is that everyone has collectively decided to buy
less stuff. People are buying less stuff, which means factories need to make
fewer items, which means people get fired, which causes more people to buy
less stuff.

It also means that banks are less willing to fund new businesses, and
shareholders are less willing to buy up IPOs / etc. etc. Investors "flight to
safety" and buy up US Treasuries, while selling off "risky" properties.
Causing stock prices to drop, IPOs to fail, and the overall mechanisms of
growth to taper off.

UBI "solves" social issues, but doesn't seem to be a solution to the economic
/ recession issue. If a recession hits, there's pretty much nothing you can do
about it.

At the moment, there are some severely mixed signals: manufacturing seems to
be in decline, agriculture is also in decline. Futhermore, the yield curve has
inverted.

On the other hand: the unemployment rate remains low and general investor
sentiment also seems high. Investors are still investing into risky businesses
and focusing on a "Growth model" (see Uber, Lyft, Tesla, etc. etc.). So some
people are optimistic, while others are growing pessimistic. Its hard to tell
if a recession is on the way.

------
tempsy
I don't think I've ever felt scared about losing a job, though I think it has
always been a part of my personality to reject being slotted into some
corporate machine and have always had one foot out the door of a job, so to
speak.

------
outside1234
The recession is coming - save some money for the winter...

------
VonGuard
The United States is weird in that you are defined, here, by your job or
profession. TV shows put your job title under your name when you appear on
them. People's first question is always "What do you do?" at parties and at
events. In other countries, this isn't always the case. When I'm in Europe,
people ask where you're from, what's for dinner, and what's happening? The
question of your job is rarely asked up front, I find. It's how Americans
define themselves, which, in the end, generally comes down to how the US
doesn't value human life, only the potential earnings thereof.

~~~
blhack
These silly “American bad Europe good” comments always find their way into
these discussions, and they are as uninsightful as “if you aren’t the customer
you’re the product!”.

An equally uncharitable interpretation is: American culture, unlike European,
places incredible value on personal agency. We ask each other “what do you do”
because we actually have the socially enforced freedom to choose what the
answer to the question is. It’s always shocked me how little freedom Europeans
have in choosing the course of their own lives. You can see this playing out
when they don’t even bother to ask each other what they do for a living (it’s
a taboo to ask because most Europeans hate their jobs).

This, of course, is absurd. People all over the world ask each other what they
do because it’s useful information to know how somebody spends their time, and
may provide additional conversation topics.

~~~
bluntfang
>We ask each other “what do you do” because we actually have the socially
enforced freedom to choose what the answer to the question is.

No we don't, or at least most people don't. People of disenfranchised
communities don't choose to not go to college or get a job in software
development. This makes up most people.

~~~
dx87
Saying that if people had a choice they'd go to college or get a job as a
software developer is quite an assumption. There's nothing wrong with wanting
to go to do something like a trade school. I've got some younger cousins that
are earning the same amount as apprentice electricians as my wife with a
masters degree.

~~~
bluntfang
This is a strawman. Disenfranchised communities don't have a choice to go to a
trade school either.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cycle_of_poverty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cycle_of_poverty)

------
readhn
Well, we had amazing 10 year bull market run so far. just look at your 401Ks
performance from 2009 to 2019!

1-2-3 year shake down / or a mini recession would be technically completely
normal and totally expected. at least by me.

get your things/portfolios in order fellas ;)

------
pysxul
> Americans' fear of losing their jobs

Unemployment rate in the US is only 3.7% (July 2019) Employee fears that they
are replaceable and the truth is that most of them are. So they are working
hard, they perform, they are productive and economy is better than it has ever
been!

I am french and where I worked it is nearly impossible to fire a long-term
contract employes (CDI). Most of them do less than the bare minimum at work.
Then entire company is taking a hit.

So IMO the fear to loose their job is a great boost!

~~~
SnarkAsh
Unemployment rate is an essentially-fraudlent statistic.

Changes in the labour force participation rate are more revealing:
[https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000)

~~~
bzbarsky
Zooming that graph out to start in 1980 shows that there is a trend there that
did not start in 2009 but closer to 2000.

Also, that specific graph is of limited utility because it is the over-16
labor force participation rate, not the prime-age one. Which means that as the
age distribution skews more toward post-retirement-age people it will
automatically drop. Which is exactly what's been happening, by the way, as the
baby boomers have started retiring. This rate will also drop as more people go
to college instead of starting work immediately after high school.

[https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2017/employment-population-
rati...](https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2017/employment-population-ratio-and-
labor-force-participation-rate-by-age.htm) has a chart that lets you see a
breakdown by age group, sort of, for 2007-2017. Note the huge differences in
the rate between the age buckets and where the overall rate falls compared to
the 25-54 rate.

------
simplecomplex
Save some money, then you don’t need to fear losing your job. Fear of losing
your job is a result of poor personal finances.

There’s no need to fear if you have your personal finances in order.

~~~
H1Supreme
Apparently you've never lived "paycheck to paycheck" before. I can remember a
time in my life where I would be so happy just to have an extra $100 at the
end of the month. This was living with roommates, never going out, and
bringing my lunch everyday. No frivolous spending at all.

God forbid you have to fix your car, or some other unexpected expense. That
$1,000 it took you 6 months to save is gone in an instant.

While I'm much better off these days, lots of Americans live the way I just
described. You can't save what you don't have.

~~~
simplecomplex
I have. If someone can’t save a few hundred bucks a month something is wrong.

Let’s use Dallas TX for example, even just waiting on tables you can make at
least twice rent. Forgo a car and you’d be able to pocket $500 / mo or more if
one was frugal.

It’s even more critical to save when at the bottom of the economic ladder,
because it allows one freedom to pursue or invest in other opportunities
(paying for school, moving, weathering unemployment, etc.)

~~~
threwawasy1228
This is an absolutely incorrect and unrealistic estimation for the majority of
the people waiting tables. I started writing up a long thing calculating this
out and stopped myself. I am going to assume you are commenting in good faith,
so I'll just state the correct information would be extremely quick for you to
research with a few google searches..

