
Tesla Q3 2018 Vehicle Safety Report - elsewhen
https://www.tesla.com/blog/q3-2018-vehicle-safety-report
======
wcoenen
Too bad that they are still comparing crashes per autopilot mile vs crashes
per non-autopilot mile without taking road type into account. If autopilot is
mostly used on highways then that isn't a good comparison. A comparison
between autopilot and non-autopilot for highway miles only would be more
interesting.

~~~
thebluehawk
Also demographics. All Tesla cars (at least the ones with autopilot) are less
than 5 years old, and typically driven by a subset of the national demographic
due to their price. But they are comparing crash rates of ALL cars, including
30 year old clunkers with few safety features.

I wonder how the numbers would differ if they were to, for example, only
compare to cars of similar years, or filter so the comparison is of the same
demographic, or at the very minimum compared to cars of the same class/price.

With all that said, I love what Tesla is doing to advance safety features and
technology. But these kinds of numbers leave a bad taste in my mouth.

~~~
prostoalex
But the safety features that would prevent a collision (lane control, adaptive
cruise control, blind spot monitoring) are still not prevalent in mainstream
vehicles though.

Seems that most cars' safety packages are built around mitigating a crash -
better bumpers, more airbags.

~~~
threeseed
> lane control, adaptive cruise control, blind spot monitoring

Not sure about the US but here in Australia at least these features are
available in some very low end cars.

And quite widespread in most cars sold today.

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daeken
I'm curious if the stats for accidents while Autopilot is engaged includes
those that occur when it disengaged within, say, 15s of the accident
occurring. Excluding that might have a big impact on the numbers. (Big Tesla
fan, just wondering.)

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gluxon
> _For those driving without Autopilot, we registered one accident or crash-
> like event for every 1.92 million miles driven. By comparison, the National
> Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) most recent data shows that
> in the United States, there is an automobile crash every 492,000 miles.
> While NHTSA’s data includes accidents that have occurred, our records
> include accidents as well as near misses (what we are calling crash-like
> events)._

I'm not quite sure what to make of this data. How is it that Tesla cars
(without autopilot) are in 4x less accidents than average?

~~~
nolok
Because the NHTSA data includes all car, including the very cheap cars with
bare minimum safety/help systems, old restored cars, ...

For it to have any value, it should compare each Tesla cars to modern/similar
age car of the same category and price range.

~~~
AnthonyMouse
> Because the NHTSA data includes all car, including the very cheap cars with
> bare minimum safety/help systems, old restored cars, ...

[https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/...](https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812115)

94% of crashes were caused by drivers, 2% by vehicle failures. This implies
that the age or state of the vehicle has minimal influence (only the 2% that
actually failed) outside of the propensity for older vehicles to have less
safety features.

And comparing the new safety features that reduce or mitigate the driver error
to those of the average vehicle is exactly the point -- the difference in
outcomes is _large_. This actually matters even across price ranges because
people may be willing to pay more for a car if it's more than four times less
likely to kill them or their family.

It would be nice to have a comparison separated by class as well (obviously
that data would have to come from the government rather than Tesla), but the
comparison to the average still has value because it at least informs you
whether a more expensive car is worth it.

~~~
plasticchris
Would switching lanes into another vehicle be an accident caused by a driver?
Blind spot warnings. These safety features do reduce accidents caused by
drivers.

~~~
AnthonyMouse
> Would switching lanes into another vehicle be an accident caused by a
> driver? Blind spot warnings. These safety features do reduce accidents
> caused by drivers.

That's the point.

The comparison to existing vehicles is valuable because the first requirement
before someone is interested in a new car is that it be sufficiently better
than their existing car. A difference of that magnitude is relevant.

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imandride
The amount of Teslas that show up on salvage auctions with rear wheels snapped
off is actually quite concerning.

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woodandsteel
No doubt the fossil fuel boosters, the ICE auto companies, and the Tesla
shorters will come up with some way to argue this report proves Tesla is a
danger to the world and is going bankrupt any day now.

