

Nintendo Projects First Ever Annual Loss, Misses Half-Year Forecasts  - Impossible
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/38055/Nintendo_Projects_First_Ever_Annual_Loss_Misses_HalfYear_Forecasts.php

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Tiktaalik
There's a great deal more factors aside from the rise of the iOS platform that
are relevant to Nintendo's poor performance.

\- Extremely strong yen.

\- 3DS is an expensive platform in the youth space at a time of economic
uncertainty. (They've since price dropped to ~$169)

\- 3DS appears to be a mere Nintendo DS 0.5 update until you actually
experience the 3D in person.

\- Weak 3DS games.

\- Nintendo got over protective parents concerned by stating themselves that
young kids (Nintendo's core market) shouldn't play the device.

\- The Wii is dead.

The iOS platform is popular but we have to consider how many of the folks
engaging in iOS gaming were likely to buy a 3DS in the first place. I'm not
convinced yet that we're seeing a mass switch over. I think Nintendo does have
to treat this competition very seriously, but I think some of the other points
I listed above have had a larger negative impact on the 3DS and Nintendo's
recent performance than the rise of iOS gaming.

~~~
plnewman
I'm actually pretty underwhelmed by the 3D on the 3DS. I was really looking
forward to it but it doesn't seem to add anything to the games.

Market saturation is another one. Nintendo is traditionally strong in it's
home market, but I was watching a TV program in Japan prior to the 3DS launch
saying that one in four Japanese owns a DS. Hard to imagine they can sell more
hardware units.

~~~
jerf
The genres that ought to really benefit are mostly not out yet. Which is one
of the general problems the device has.

I'm going to end up getting one because my DS Lite is biting the dust after 5
years of service, and they've structured the prices so that I have no real
reason not to just go for it. (I have a significant enough DS backlog that it
isn't economical for me to just abandon it, either.) For me, the touchstone
game will actually be Super Mario 3D Land in mid-November. Does 3D solve some
of the problems that have plagued 3D platformers since day one, like the
extreme difficulty in judging depth that we've just sort of hacked around but
is still a problem, or not? If it doesn't add anything to that genre, stick a
fork in it, 3D is done, or at least portable 3D. But I'd like to see it before
I make that call.

Even Ocarina of Time isn't a good judge, because that was built for 3D-on-2D
screens like everything else. SM3DL will have been built for 3D from the
beginning. If that doesn't cut it, nothing will.

It's still possible for the 3DS to follow the DS trajectory of recovering from
an initial release slump, but only if there's some sort of real benefit to the
3D beyond the first two minutes.

~~~
w33ble
Nintendo has said that none of the games for the system are allowed to
_require_ 3D to play, so I don't know if you should expect anything too
groundbreaking there.

I think the 3DS's biggest problem is the overwhelming success of the original
DS. Damn near everyone owns one, so people are still making titles for it.
Aside from the 3D feature, this leaves little incentive to upgrade, unless
your original DS is on its last leg and you still want to play those games.
Otherwise, you've still got a working system, a stockpile of games and you
still have access to newly released titles. Until there are some worthy 3DS
exclusive titles, sales will continue to be pretty slow.

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untog
I really curious to see what Nintendo do in the face of devices like the iPod
Touch. Portable gaming has always been more casual than "static" gaming, and
the iPod Touch is absolutely dominating casual gaming. I sold my DS a long
time ago because I simply couldn't be bothered to carry it around any more- I
don't think I'm alone on that, and I'm not sure how Nintendo can solve that
problem.

I won't be surprised if we see them take an approach similar to Sony- partner
with a phone manufacturer to make a top tier casual gaming device that is also
a phone, connected to an app store.

~~~
forgottenpaswrd
They can't, it goes against the company core philosophy.

Anybody can program for the iPod, and anybody can program for the DS(with the
homebrew libs), but you can't officially do so for the DS without paying huge
amounts of money and "proving" that you are a professional(You can't program
in your house), and giving a big share of the profits to Nintendo.

So developers just go away and the only games you have are those made by
Nintendo itself: Zelda, Mario and the like...the same games over and over
again.

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kin
iOS is a gold mine for 3rd party. Someone needs to look at how well
Scribblenauts [http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/scribblenauts-
remix/id4448447...](http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/scribblenauts-
remix/id444844790?mt=8) is doing on iOS vs. DS as an example. This affects the
casual market for DS. Why spend $250 (can't believe they launched at that
heinous console-level price) to play casual games?

Beyond that though, is terrible timing and business decisions on Nintendo's
part. Remember the DS Phat? The 3DS actually sold really well initially
relative to the DS phat. What did well before were titles like Mario Kart,
Tetris, and Jump Superstars in Japan timed during peak season with the release
of the aesthetically pleasing DS Lite + the convenience of the r4. Then
Nintendo went ahead and released 2 new versions to annoy customers. Now they
release a 3DS and expect early adopters? Their main titles come now during the
holidays and we'll see how well the system sells before making a firm opinion.

Additionally they're shelling tons of cash on Wii U whose innovation is
nowhere near as revolutionary as the Wii. I demo-ed it @ E3 and there's simply
nothing but a tech demo to showcase anything worthy of hype.

So, I think they've realized their mistakes. And it's not surprising at all
that they've projected an annual loss. Also, 1st party games ported out?
Never, I don't know why people keep bringing that idea up.

~~~
w33ble
Nintendo has always done that with their handheld game systems though, at
least the successful ones. They iterate the thing to death and then come out
with something new. The 3DS's problem is that it looks like simply another
iteration of the original DS, not something new. Whether or not that's really
true, that's definitely how it looks. Games don't look significantly better,
they are lacking any "must have" 3DS titles (the holidays might change this,
time will tell) and the 3D feature doesn't really add that much to the games
(in my case, I get a headache after a few minutes with 3D enabled).

~~~
kin
Graphically speaking it's actualy a pretty huge jump from the DS. But yes,
you're right, there's nothing added. Most people play it with 3D turned off.
Augmented reality isn't used at all. And yep, we'll have to wait until their
core titles come out to really see what's up.

For me though, I told myself "I'm playing Zelda 3D. That's what's happening
next". But, I still haven't bought the damn system and game yet. It just
doesn't feel right to early adopt it.

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mwill
I'm curious, how far back does 'First Ever Annual Loss' run? I remember
hearing Nintendo used to make toys and playing cards, long before the NES,
does this refer to pre video game Nintendo?

~~~
larrik
The articles says 1981, when they first started reporting financials.

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vannevar
Nintendo's days as an independent company may be numbered. With no clear path
forward on either the handheld or the console side, their greatest strength is
their content. Possible suitors? Their neighbor Microsoft might benefit. Or
Apple, which is rumored to be entering the console space. Sony seems to have
its hands full right now. How about Disney, they'd love to add Mario and
company to their IP. Out of left field, maybe Samsung would jump in.

~~~
michaelchisari
I think Apple+Nintendo would probably be the best fit in terms of corporate
culture, much more than Sony, and Disney is a maybe, but that's really an
industry they don't have much internal knowledge of.

That said, Apple+Nintendo may never happen due to nationalism. I can't imagine
a Japanese national treasure like Nintendo being sold to a uniquely American
company like Apple. I'm not saying it's impossible. It would just be a very
big deal if it did happen.

~~~
fluidcruft
If we're talking Japanese cultural ego, America > Korea >> China.

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saturdaysaint
It's not going to get any easier for them: iPhone 4S and iPad2 apps that play
with Apple TV look to encroach on living room consoles.
[http://www.engadget.com/2011/10/07/real-racing-2-shows-
off-i...](http://www.engadget.com/2011/10/07/real-racing-2-shows-off-
iphone-4s-graphical-chops-brings-split/) Fortunately for them, the iPod Touch
can't do the mirroring so they have a year to defend the living room.

Project forward a generation or two, though, with improved and widespread
Apple TV and better graphics, and it's hard to see how the Xbox and
Playstation won't be affected - the Infinity Blade 2 demo might not be state
of the art, but it be enough for functionally similar ports of console games.
I think we're at most 3 years away from having iOS be the lead platform for
Madden and/or FIFA.

~~~
zyb09
Only if Apple (and not some random third party) releases a wireless gamepad as
an accessory for iOS devices. Then it could really take of.

~~~
saturdaysaint
Did you watch the video? If the game video is beamed to the TV, the iPad and
even iPhone can be very competent controllers. Once you can use the
gyroscope/accelerometer freely and use the entire screen for gestures (without
worrying you're obscuring the gameplay), they can make fantastic gamepads.
Plus, since every kid is using their own device, everyone has instant access
to their preferences.

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haydenevans
Nobody wants to carry around another gaming device in addition to phones that
are completely capable of doing the same things. 3DS' 3D abilities seem more
gimmicky than useful. Putting classic titles on the App Store and Android
Marketplace (that are no longer being sold or generating revenue) seems like a
no brainer to me.

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micah63
2 words: iPod Touch

~~~
DodgyEggplant
4 words: Port Everything. Sell Apps.

~~~
pkamb
For $0.99? Or $29.99? That's the question.

