
Economist puts dent in optimism: bigger crash is coming - newacc
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/22/2604466.htm?section=australia
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grandpa
Oh... _an_ economist, not _The_ Economist :)

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tybris
That's what I thought for a second.

I guess in the financial world being right once makes you a genius, being
right twice makes you a prophet.

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CalmQuiet
So... cute [ "the economist"'s name is Harry Dent.

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Dent> suggests he has some substantial
credentials.

And (but) he seems to make his publishing income from doom books (see titles
in wikipedia).

However, regarding his omniscience (apparently valued by abc.net.au (=
_australian broadcasting_ , not _abc.com_ ), check out his 1998 title:

The Great Depression Ahead (2009)

The Next Great Bubble Boom (2004)

The Roaring 2000s Investor (1999)

The Roaring 2000s (1998)

The Great Jobs Ahead (1995)

The Great Boom Ahead (1993)

Our Power to Predict (1989)

Not exactly prescient-looking any more to refer to "The Roaring 2000s"

Which economist will stand up and quote Shakespeare: "Believe none of us. We
are errant rogues and knaves all." ?

[/cynicism]

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Kadin
I don't think that "The Roaring 2000s" is really inapt. I suspect that when
people look back on the decade from 50 years hence, they will see it as a boom
time that ran out of steam pretty spectacularly towards the end.

The events of the first few years in any decade seem to be weighted more
heavily when that decade is summed up later than events that occur in the
latter years.

I don't have an opinion either way on Dent, but the titles and publication
dates of his books don't make him look that bad.

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yardie
You know what I gave up on all these predictors a long time ago. People are
losing their minds over the smallest bump in the market and most of it appears
to be just speculators running from one extreme to the next.

At this point I figure the guys on wallstreet have way more to lose than I do.
I may lose my job but I know electronics, I know basic electricity, plumbing
and car repair. I'll be okay because I can fend for myself. The guys on wall
street only have the luxury of working on Wall Street. If the market dives
they'll be out of a job and won't be able to pay for shit. So the state of the
economy is a minor inconvenience for me, it's a huge problem for them. I
assume they'll eventually fix this mess not out of any altruism but because
their life depends on it.

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edw519
"People are losing their minds over the smallest bump in the market and most
of it appears to be just speculators running from one extreme to the next."

Did you read the article?

OP's primary argument is well established: demographics.

This is nothing new. For 30 years, people have been saying, "Here's a good
business to be in: whereever the bulk of baby boomers are buying. (See fast
food, autos, etc.) For the past 10 years we've been warned about the period
2008 to 2016, when 70 million baby boomers are scheduled for retirement. We've
never seen numbers like that before, so it won't be painless.

The only thing OP has added is that we haven't hit bottom yet. Anyone really
that surprised?

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khafra
Senescent care and the mortuary business are growth industries.

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sokoloff
But repeat business is harder to come by.

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Retric
I expect people will continue to get older for a while.

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tezza
Can anyone say that another additional shock and after-shocks could be
sustained easily?

.

[ Insert List of possible shocks here[1] ]

.

* Inflation spike as people incorrectly believe recession over

* Action against North Korea

* Action against Iran

\----

[1] There is a risk of becoming too much like HousePriceCrash.co.uk and other
doom websites (tho I added to the doom)

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kleevr
I don't know how you feel about counter histories; but, based on the keyword
density of your post, I'll go ahead and recommend "The Shock Doctrine, the
rise of disaster capitalism" (by Naomi Klien).

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berntb
I had lots of fun reading this analysis of the fact handling in the Shock
Doctrine:

<http://www.cato.org/pubs/bp/bp102.pdf>

My thesis about life, if I have one, is that idealists lie.

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dgallagher
Something that worries me is the value of the dollar, long-term. Right now the
government is essentially printing dollar bills and handing them out to
citizens and companies.

Economic history teaches us that this is the correct response in the short and
medium run (given our limited economic data set currently available - 100
years isn't terribly long of a time). It stimulates the economy, and keeps
things from contracting "too much" like they did in the 1930's. There is a
long-term cost to printing dollars, however, which could be high inflation
(prices for everything increase, meaning your dollars have less buying power
than before).

I'm not sure how this will all play out, but I'm sure we can all agree that
it's not sustainable for a terribly long time. Maybe a year or two and that's
it.

Has anyone come across anything written by an economist who has thought things
out beyond the next year or two?

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Flemlord
This the same Harry Dent who said the DOW would be at 30,000+ by 2012. Dent is
a fascinating speaker but he has a tendency to go overboard in his
predictions. I'm a fan of his and (at one time) subscribed to his newsletter,
but don't give this prediction the same weight as one made by somebody like
Krugman or Roubini.

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dinkumthinkum
The argument, the so-called "Ageing population" factor, smacks of the
manufactured stuff that 24/7 cable news producers come up with on slow news
days.

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gojomo
Except to his credit, Dent's been pushing this generational theory for around
two decades, and while his predictions have been somewhat extreme, they've
also fit broad patterns well.

So I wouldn't take it as gospel but it's a perspective that has shown some
value.

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erdemozkan
Summer time is always good for the economy. The risk is still but hope is
important.

