
We all think our jobs are safe from automation - rbanffy
https://www.technologyreview.com/the-download/610067/we-all-think-our-jobs-are-safe-from-automation/?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_content=2018-01-25&utm_campaign=Technology+Review
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anfilt
I must be one heck of a cynic then. Working in the electronics industry I see
EDA tools doing more and more. When it comes to software developers try to
automate a lot work if they can. Heck just think of build scripts. We are now
using neural networks to build a model for algorithms we don't even know how
to code.

So far these all still involve a person operating them. However, what if
things get good enough that you don't need massive teams of people as before?
There are so many things that can be automated. There is no way the thought of
being safe from automation applies to 94% of people. Just shows how
naive/deluded we can be as people. If this poll's sample represents the
average population's view on the topic we are in for a rude awakening. If that
is the case it would seem majority of us are just coasting along in la-la land
instead of being aware.

~~~
zeckalpha
Idris’ codegen comes to mind... just write the types and automation will write
most of the code for you.

~~~
yorwba
That doesn't fundamentally change anything, though. It just puts the code that
matters in the types. Just like macros, or procedures, or assembly; it only
changes how a program is specified. It does not automate away the ability to
transform fuzzy business requirements into deterministic logic by describing a
way to achieve them in a formal language, i.e. "programming".

~~~
zeckalpha
It is a new layer of abstraction. A new “secret weapon”:
[http://www.paulgraham.com/avg.html](http://www.paulgraham.com/avg.html)

------
ThomPete
It is not without irony that AI is going to replace the radiologist before the
cleaning lady. First field of expertise requires specialized knowledge (which
AI is great at) latter requires general intelligence (which requires
Artificial general intelligence and is much harder)

~~~
govg
Well, Roombas do exist...

~~~
rbanffy
They don't clean walls. Or toilets.

~~~
myth_drannon
Or corners and stairs

~~~
coldcode
Or floors full of toys.

~~~
qbrass
Or dog poo.

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wakkaflokka
As a data scientist, I have the lingering fears of job automation. At least
for applications-oriented work (as opposed to research). There's no reason
Auto ML software couldn't take away most of the difficulty of model building
in simpler scenarios. I mean, the software is already here. Just not widely
used. And as computing power increases, no reason they can't tackle more of
the complex problems where you might need to call in an expert. Feature
generation based on the context of the industry, etc. Translation of findings
into business-understandable language. One new algorithm or software package
can automate much of what a data scientist might do. I mean, the unofficial
slogan for some of the data science positions I've found were to "automate
myself out of a job."

That's why, although I LOVE what I do, part of me thinks I need to make sure
I'm in a position to move into management at some point - because I see a lot
less ability for automation in areas that require "people" skills over the
next few decades. On the other hand, I LOVE what I do. What's that French
phrase? C'est la vie? I think it translates into "you're screwed, one way or
another."

~~~
amelius
Machine Learning today is where web-development was twenty years ago. As more
tools become available, everybody will be able to do it.

~~~
byte1918
I feel general ML is already extremely accesible. There are tons of frameworks
that trivialize impleneting various types of classifiers. I am actually
surprized it's not more popular. I think the only thing left is to make GPU
processing more available or find a cheap alternative to expensive Titan cards
(maybe Google's NPUs?) and not really a requirement but abstracting away some
of the configuration parameters could help the general population that doesn't
know or care about the math behind.

I can already see a future, a dark future, where pre-trained models on
pictures of people are sold on darkweb and you can just plug the model and
hook it up to some live cam in your area and stalk anyone. This is almost if
not already possible today and I can't imagine Facebook not already having
something caple of this.

~~~
rbanffy
I'd really love to see some GPU-like capacity integrated into the main CPU ISA
so one could be certain to find those instructions and cores as you can be
sure you'll find AVX.

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auxym
Another reason to strive for financial independence ASAP.

I have to wonder though: if >50% of people currently employed lose their jobs
to automation... who will be there to fuel the consumerist economy? Who will
buy ads on Facebook and Google that peddle widgets and services for which
there no more consumers with disposable income to market them to?

~~~
Double_a_92
If every single job was automated... What do you think would happen?

Ideally nobody has to work and everything you'd ever want is free.

~~~
chii
> Ideally nobody has to work and everything you'd ever want is free.

but in reality, people who don't have investments in the automation will just
starve and die, while people who _do_ have such investments reap many rewards.

~~~
disgruntledphd2
I think that, given the historical evidence (specifically the french
revolution being driven by the price of bread), it's more likely that there
will be mass unrest and those who own the robots may get executed to cheers of
those whose jobs have been automated.

~~~
dragonwriter
And, again judging by the French revolution (and the Russian, and numerous
others), an elite subset of the revolutionaries will seize control of the
robots, and the situation will return pretty much to _status quo ante_ ,
except for the identity of the owner of the boot stomping the average guy in
the face, and their philosophical justification for their exalted position.

------
vilya
Is anyone out there working to automate middle management?

~~~
amelius
If you use the Dilbert comic for training data, I suppose you could get pretty
far.

In fact, turns out Scott Adams wrote a post on the topic: [1]

> ... My prediction that robots will dominate management before they dominate
> blue collar jobs is based on The Dilbert Principle which observes that the
> least skilled employees are promoted to management. You need your most
> skilled people doing interface design, engineering, and the hard stuff.
> Management is mostly about optimizing resource allocation, and that is
> something a robot can learn relatively easily, at least compared to most
> skilled jobs.

> You might wonder if a robot can have enough leadership qualities to be a
> manager. I would point out that most humans in management have zero
> leadership skills, so the bar isn’t set high ...

[1] [http://blog.dilbert.com/2012/12/19/the-future-of-middle-
mana...](http://blog.dilbert.com/2012/12/19/the-future-of-middle-management/)

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ckluis
There is a particular slide in this talk I gave which was mindblowing -
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEnFBHqHJT8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEnFBHqHJT8)

Slide 58 to be exact - [https://www.slideshare.net/mintek/future-of-
engineering-and-...](https://www.slideshare.net/mintek/future-of-engineering-
and-disruption-in-maintenance-81522488)

Between 2015 and 2022 most of the industries on the list are expected to go
from a 5-10% automation rate to a 60-90% automation rate.

~~~
Joe-Z
slide 55 only says "50 billion machines will be connected on the internet by
2020"

~~~
ckluis
Doh, slide 58.

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benrmatthews
I work in digital marketing and really think my job will go in the next 10
years due to automation (if not in the next 5 years).

I'm trying to stay a step ahead and work "above the algorithm" \- learning
skills that will always be needed and can't be automated (creativity, team
management, translating analytics into actionable insight).

It's difficult to tell how quickly the need to adapt is and the best way to
adapt to automation.

~~~
petra
I've been thinking of getting into the field, so this is very interesting. Can
you please explain a bit about how do you see digital marketing becoming
automated ?

~~~
jacobush
I'm guessing when they have your inputs and outputs matched in a hypercubed
skinnerbox, "marketing" would seem as quaint as "alchemy" of yore.

(If that is not clear enough - a scientific way to extract all your available
economic margin by ways of manipulating you. Of course in a race with
competitors to the bottom, knifing each other with the same algorithms. I
should write a dystopic scifi book.)

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6d6b73
I don't think my job is safe from automation, and I'm an automation engineer
:)

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malgama
Outsourcing is a greater threat for software engineers. Why pay wages that
reflect the costs of living of a city with first-world standards when you can
just pick anyone in the world?

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_pmf_
Some developer communities are very active in securing their employment by
convincing the managerial tier that their yak shaving is essential work.

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GoToRO
The problem is not that your job will be automated, the problem is that it
will happen too fast and people will not have time to adapt. The disrupt
mantra for startups can generate lots of money with the side effect that it
hurts people's lives. If the changes comes slowly, across one generation, then
people do not suffer because they already retired.

~~~
eesmith
"too fast and people will not have enough time to adapt"

Thing is, this has been the case for at least 200 years, dating from the
Luddites. Quoting
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luddite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luddite)
, "Luddites feared that the time spent learning the skills of their craft
would go to waste as machines would replace their role in the industry. ...
The Luddites were not afraid of technology and did not attempt to eliminate
technology out of fear. Their goal was instead to gain a better bargaining
position with their employers."

(As a reminder, "It is a misconception that the Luddites protested against the
machinery itself in an attempt to halt the progress of technology.")

Or Phil Ochs "Automation Song" from 1964,
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbSTnuXv_3Y](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbSTnuXv_3Y)

    
    
      Now you've got new machines for to take my place
      And you tell me it's not mine to share.
    

Both of those point out that the advantages of automation go to a subset of
the people - capitalists, in Marxist terms. But that doesn't have to be the
case.

A strong labor union, or a more socialist form of government interested in
supporting labor and workers, could help reduce the hurt of disruption, either
by effective trade negotiations or higher taxes on those profiting from
automation.

------
crusso
The less your job requires understanding advanced ML concepts, the more likely
you won't comprehend what it's capable of or where the technology is going.

That's why your average dishwasher is blissfully unaware of what's coming for
a job function that's relatively simple while computer programmers may be
similarly optimistic - but for good reason.

------
coldcode
Over a long enough timeframe everything will potentially be automatable. The
only timeframe I care about though is the one between me and retirement. For
now I am quite safe no automaton can manage to deal with my daily nightmare
without pulling its own plug.

