
Climate change can fuel wars - La-ang
https://www.economist.com/international/2019/05/23/how-climate-change-can-fuel-wars
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klenwell
I remember seeing a white paper (from some government agency or the RAND
institute) back in the 90's (actually probably learned about in some NPR
interview) that predicted wars over water starting around the point we are now
(approaching 2020). I've seen some news reports that this is already
happening. One example being tensions/conflict between Israel and Lebanon.
News reports generally treat it as an ideological conflict but this argues
looking at the material basis for the conflict.

Another lesser example being legal/political wrangling here in western US
among states over Colorado River rights.

It'd be interesting to dig up some of those white papers / predictions and see
how credible accurate their predictions like this were.

Not exactly the same thing as climate change but certainly connected.

~~~
WorldMaker
The Colorado River rights problems are exactly why "it could happen in the US
too" and it isn't just an "international problem" to US audiences. I wouldn't
call it a "lesser example" because mini wars (especially if you count
industrial sabotage) have been fought over it in the past, and sure
California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico are friends right now, but given a
few more years of droughts in the US southwest and that is likely to change.

~~~
mc32
Somewhere I’ve read California would like to pipe Great Lakes water into the
state... but the Great Lakes states entered into a compact with Canada to make
it difficult...

The idea has been kicked around for decades, but now even some notable
scientists have warmed up to the idea.

~~~
notfromhere
because piping water from a non-renewable lake to a desert is beyond stupid.
no need to subsidize building megacities in arid regions

~~~
mc32
I don’t think it'd be so much (the draught from the lakes) that the St
Lawrence becomes a dry wash.

Even if parts of Calif are a desert, they become a fertile deserts with water.

I imagine some revenue sharing scheme could entice some of the states to send
some water.

~~~
notfromhere
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aral_Sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aral_Sea)

People can't drink money.

~~~
mc32
I know that you’re saying but the Great Lakes basin is not arid like the Aral
Sea -whose tributaries were tapped for irrigation. The Great Lakes “overflow”
into the st Lawrence which discharges about 7000 m3/sec. at the Ontario
outflow.

~~~
notfromhere
If California gets great lakes water, every single southwestern state will
also ask for it. The intelligent solution is "dont build megacities in the
middle of the desert beyond their ability to sustain themselves" rather than
"lets invest tons of money into piping fresh water several thousand miles and
not address the initial root cause"

~~~
mc32
Whether people live in CA of the Midwest, water will be consumed. They might
even consume less in the arid areas if water has rationing policies. The main
obstacle would be infrastructure but it’s not too complicated. It would need
lots of pumps to get over the Rockies but it’s doable.

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eanzenberg
Actually the research experts say climate change is a small factor with
regards to increased conflict.

[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01830-2](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01830-2)

~~~
kiliantics
It's hardly a consensus. There is plenty of research suggesting climate change
has been a factor in conflicts even now, such as in the Syrian civil war:

[https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-0005...](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00059.1)

The Pentagon also has reports on climate change as national security risk.

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petermcneeley
Climate action can fuel revolutions.
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/frances-
proteste...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/frances-protesters-
are-part-of-a-global-backlash-against-climate-change-
taxes/2018/12/04/08365882-f723-11e8-863c-9e2f864d47e7_story.html)

~~~
innocentoldguy
France is good example of how governments use the concept of climate change to
increase taxes and government control over the masses, and how the masses
rebel against those attempts to usurp more and more money and control.

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united893
This was assessed by the Pentagon back in 2014 >
[https://web.archive.org/web/20141013222428/https://www.acq.o...](https://web.archive.org/web/20141013222428/https://www.acq.osd.mil/ie/download/CCARprint.pdf)

And it's pretty straightforward: as water, arable land and other resources
become scarcer, then groups facing severe shortages will fight over the
leftover resources.

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d--b
It's impossible to tell what the impact of climate change will be overall.
Maybe more wars, but maybe less wars...

Maybe food will be less scarce... Maybe Congo will have more wars, but maybe
by some random fashion, climate change will prevent some kind of world war
iii.

Climate change is a disaster for the fauna and flora of the world. It will
displace a lot of people. But anything more complex is impossible to say.

~~~
danans
> Climate change is a disaster for the fauna and flora of the world.

It's a disaster for the _current_ flora and fauna, and social structures of
the world. Something will follow, but on very different terms than what we
have been used to.

To hazard a guess, the bias will be toward flora and fauna (including people)
fighting to get in to, and defend shrinking habitable zones.

There is a theory that the desertification of the ancient Fertile Crescent,
and subsequent dispersal of agricultural and pastoral societies and people,
was the result of the their intense farming in a fragile environment.

Those people had a place to run to and carry on (the entire unknown-to-them
world). No such escape hatch for us.

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KangLi
Climate change as stated is not of course the main cause of wars, but its
increasingly becoming one. Fighting for resources is inevitable, even between
sages conflict would arise on who is entitled to what. Wait to see these
lunatic world leaders shifting their starvation from oil to water. As
mentioned it's already happening. To maximize the chaos politicians play this
as a card for their agenda, as scarcity reigns, they will use it to scrap
vote. There was an article mentioned earlier on HN about a city in India that
has completely ran out of drinkable water. I'd say things look pretty grim,
even for the optimist.

~~~
La-ang
Chennai

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innocentoldguy
Does anybody have a link to the full article? The introduction paragraphs
sound like the issues is more about Islamic extremism than climate change. How
does the article attempt to link these two concepts?

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madengr
Regarding the photo in the article, it doesn’t help when you force woman to
wear full body coverings in sweltering heat.

~~~
harimau777
Its possible that the protection from the sun outweighs the increased
insulation.

