
If Trump Is Down in the Polls, Why Do So Many Americans Think He’ll Win? - samizdis
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/if-trump-is-down-in-the-polls-why-do-so-many-americans-think-hell-win/
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samizdis
A few interesting insights/theories in this (FiveThirtyEight weekly political
chat transcript):

\- _the polls had Clinton as the likely winner in 2016 and Trump won — so, of
course, some people are wary of the polls again._ , in other words, "once
bitten, twice shy".

\- _there’s also a sense that Trump is Teflon politically_

\- _... the reporting that Trump staffers X or Y or various senators or GOP
strategists think Trump is in trouble tells us little. I read those stories
from May to October 2016, and they often turn out to be wrong._

\- _... events still matter at the margins, and the margins could be decisive,
considering Trump won because of about 78,000 votes in three states in 2016._

But, sadly, the bottom line for me is:

 _... people are correct to be uncertain about the election. We are still six
months out._

