

Toyota Expects Its First Loss in 70 Years - nikils
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/23/business/worldbusiness/23toyota.html?_r=1

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vitaminj
70 years sounds pretty good, but it doesn't tell the whole story. Toyota was
supported by the Japanese government (through subsidies, capital controls and
trade restrictions) for quite a few years after it switched over from textile
manufacturing to automobiles in 1933. It was even bailed out in 1949 when it
had major liquidity problems.

So while the 70 years of no operating losses is technically true, there was a
period of time where Toyota was practically propped up by the Japanese
government.

References:

(1) [http://www.shmula.com/291/toyota-motor-corporation-
company-h...](http://www.shmula.com/291/toyota-motor-corporation-company-
history)

(2) The economist Ha-Joon Chang also has some good discussion on the Japanese
government's involvement with Toyota (eg. [http://www.prospect-
magazine.co.uk/article_details.php?id=96...](http://www.prospect-
magazine.co.uk/article_details.php?id=9653))

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Retric
_The financial turmoil has also hurt carmakers by driving up the value of the
Japanese yen, which has risen some 25 percent since summer._

Without the dramatic change in the value of the yen Toyota would still have
made a profit. What's interesting is seeing how much faster they are
responding to a single missed year than GM is to there approaching bankruptcy.

PS: The the parent company is still posting a _$560 million_ profit so they
are a long way from real trouble.

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patio11
I work in the Nagoya, the Town Toyota Built, though not for Toyota. (Well, to
the extent that anyone in Nagoya can be said not to work for Toyota.)

The great thing about Japanese corporate discipline: when GM has a tough year,
GM blames the year. No way we could have predicted spiraling gas prices, a
down economy, and increased foreign competition. When Toyota has a tough year,
Toyota blames Toyota. You can bet that somewhere in the bowels of that
megacorp is a team of economists reevaluating their currency hedging strategy,
while another team is working 16 hour days coming up with a car that captures
the imagination of the American consumer but is priced to move as compared to
the Prius.

Keep doing this whole "Learn from failure and overcome it" thing for a few
decades and you end up the biggest car company in the world and make the
competition look like sniveling amateurs.

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invisible
There is definitely something to be said about being humble during a crisis. I
think if more companies took this view during this time, we'd like exit this
"down economy" faster.

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mdasen
Toyota can ride this out. With a larger non-US presence combined with their
cash stockpile they shouldn't be too worried about what's happening now.

The real problems would be: a) oil prices re-spike and people start moving
away from cars as a form of transportation toward things like trains/busses;
b) after this recession, people decide they don't need new cars that often and
hang onto their vehicles a lot longer; c) Chinese auto companies enter the
world stage.

I don't think the first two will happen since we'll be back to consumerist
exuberance in a year or two forgetting the whole "save for a rainy day" thing
and I think oil producing countries have realized that stable oil prices are
in their interest as nothing drives fervor for alternative energy like high
gas prices.

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vaksel
trains/buses thing won't happen...driving is too ingrained in our society

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puzzle-out
Young people in the UK seem less bothered about passing their driving test at
17 - university is ahead of them, so there is no point putting money into a
car - I went down this route, and am now 27 and still don't drive, and cannot
see this changing unless it becomes essential to work or family. The roads are
so congested where I live that the car is no longer a symbol of freedom like
it had been for my parents.

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gambling8nt
The UK has a much more effective public transit system than most of the US.
Also, the distance scale there lower than it is in the US. These factors
together mean that changing driving patterns in the UK may not be matched in
the US (personally, I know of anecdotal evidence in both directions, so I
expect the difference in the US to be very regional).

~~~
celoyd
By area, most of the US is hard to serve with mass transit. But by population
it's tractable -- you don't have to lay bus/rail mesh everywhere, only where
it's already dense. The 10 largest metro areas in the US are about 75% the
area of the UK with a population 5% larger.

(I'm 24, live in the US, and have never driven.)

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noelchurchill
“The change in the world economy is of a magnitude that comes once every
hundred years,” Toyota’s president, Katsuaki Watanabe, told a news conference.

Uhoh it's the once every 100 years talk. Sounds like Zuckerberg speak.

