
Tesla – Lithium-ion storage is ready to power the grid - djrogers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-30/tesla-s-battery-revolution-just-reached-critical-mass
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petra
There's a missing parameter here: the number of recharge cycles a battery can
have without losing large capacity , because over the long term - decades,
like done in this business, that's what determines the cost per kwh charge
stored and supplied, i.e. what end users pay for.

Without those numbers, it's not possibe to judge Tesla against the
competition, for example Alevo, which claims more the 50,000 charge cycles, vs
,i believe, 5000 charge cycles for Tesla.

For Alevo, the final cost per store/supplied should be ~3cents/kwh, over 20
earss lifespan, which should make grid storage very economical.

~~~
Nition
I also wonder how it compares in cost to pumped storage hydroelectric.

You can use excess power to pump water uphill and then release it to generate
hydro power when needed. Requires the right geography but it can essentially
store huge amounts of power and it's apparently pretty cost effective.

California already has at least a couple that I can see:

\- Helms Pumped Storage Plant[1] - 1.2GW capacity

\- Castaic Power Plant[2] - 1.5GW capacity

That's like 60+ tesla plants each.

[1][https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helms_Pumped_Storage_Plant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helms_Pumped_Storage_Plant)

[2][https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Castaic_Power_Plant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Castaic_Power_Plant)

~~~
secabeen
Pumped storage hydro is great, but it is limited to places that have the right
terrain.

~~~
Nition
I wonder what the cost would be of pumped storage in just like a massive water
tank on a hill, or a big manually dug out lake, rather than in somewhere that
could actually be a natural lake.

~~~
jccooper
Taum Sauk, an artificial pumped storage facility which famously failed, was
rebuilt to 3600 MW·h for $490 million. So that was like $136 per kwh capacity,
though I think they didn't have to do much for the lower reservoir (which was
built in the 60s). Seems to be a lot better than batteries, though still
requires appropriate terrain.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taum_Sauk_Hydroelectric_Power_...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taum_Sauk_Hydroelectric_Power_Station)

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matt2000
There seems to be some conflicting information in the article, I don't
understand how these quotes line up:

"...prices for lithium-ion batteries have fallen fast — by almost half just
since 2014." "But for the most part, according to a BNEF analysis, the costs
of new projects would need to drop by half in order to be profitable on a
wider scale in California, and that’s not likely to happen for another
decade."

The prices for the batteries dropped by half in 2 years, but it will take a
decade for them to drop by the same amount again? What am I missing here?

Also the chart seems to indicate the cost was $273/kWh to build a plant in
2016, but then they say "While Tesla declined to provide its pricing data, the
similarly sized Altagas project was expected to cost at least $40 million, or
$500 per kilowatt hour." I guess the costs unrelated to the battery cells
themselves added another ~$230/kWh in costs?

~~~
FooBarWidget
It says the cost of the project needs to drop by half not the cost of the
batteries. It could be that the cost of batteries is only a small amount of
the overall cost. That is what you see with solar, most of the cost comes from
installation.

~~~
stcredzero
_the cost of the project needs to drop by half not the cost of the batteries_

Manufacture larger self-contained units the size of a standard shipping
container?

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briffle
that would be awesome, but would be one heavy shipping container..

~~~
tw04
Well, given we ship around semi-trucks full (ok not completely full due to the
exact weight you describe) of lead-acid car batteries for recycling, it
wouldn't be unthinkable. Li-on, I believe, is roughly 200% lighter for the
same battery.

IE: [http://www.powertechsystems.eu/home/tech-corner/lithium-
ion-...](http://www.powertechsystems.eu/home/tech-corner/lithium-ion-vs-lead-
acid-battery/)

Not sure how that carries over to larger batteries as I've only really dealt
with them for ATV type use.

~~~
Rhinobird
Is 200% lighter half as heavy, or is it buoyant? Cause 100% lighter is
weightless. So 200% would be a negative weight. I am just confused.

~~~
andlier
You are correct, the link to powertechsystems.eu has those erroneous
percentage calculations.

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mike_eirinberg
Statistics aside, this is wonderful. It makes a teenager like me optimistic
about our energy future. Love the fast roll out too. In 50 years we will be
thanking Elon Musk for saving all our asses.

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lliiffee
Can anyone explain the logic behind having lots of small batteries, rather
than the power company buying a Big Battery and offering this as a service?

Two reasons occur to me:

1\. Situations off the grid or with unreliable power (eg blackouts) 2\.
Transmission costs are high, so it's better to have the storage close to the
source.

Even in the second case, it seems like the power company could distribute
these. I wonder if they are just more regulated/slow moving/immune to
marketing.

~~~
erikpukinskis
I am not any kind of battery engineer, but...

My understanding is a primary limitation for these batteries is cooling.
Cooling ability is relative to the surface area of the battery. One giant
battery has much lower surface area than a bunch of small ones.

Also having a large number of batteries lets you put different cells on
different recharge cycles to maximize battery life. You can use a small number
of worn out cells for brief minute-to-minute fluctuations while you keep
fresher cells on longer cycle that optimizes lifetime. With one big battery
you're just stuck with whatever wear characteristics the usage curve gives
you.

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synicalx
I'm curious - if you take a normal Li-ion battery out of a phone (for example)
and whack it with a hammer it'll put on a pretty decent and dangerous show.
Can the same thing happen to a big battery?

I'd imagine they wouldn't be as 'flimsy' as the ones in a phone, and weight
isn't really an issue so they could happily have some kind of extra
insulation/shielding.

~~~
greglindahl
Why yes, there's engineering that goes into stopping a fire from spreading.
Here's some info about a fire safety test done to a Tesla Powerpack:

[https://electrek.co/2016/12/19/tesla-fire-powerpack-test-
saf...](https://electrek.co/2016/12/19/tesla-fire-powerpack-test-safety/)

~~~
synicalx
Nice, thanks for the link, I was sort of hoping it would explode violently but
probably good that it didn't.

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simulate
This is slightly OT since it deals with home batteries, not gigawatts, but
here is a simulation of the Tesla Powerwall including putting power back on
the grid: [https://forio.com/app/powersim/powerwall-
simulation/](https://forio.com/app/powersim/powerwall-simulation/)

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Neliquat
It seems like once they get their costs nailed down leasing them, and
basically taking the first X% profit, giving 'green' thinking people new tech
to show off, leverageable during power events at a profit if done in concert
with energy companies.

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basicplus2
for about $57,000 American you can get 370kwh centrifugal energy storage from
Beacon Power excluding inverter, with a design life of 100 years bearing
service every 20 years. that's about $154/kwh and 100 year life.

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supermatt
"battery plants take up a much smaller footprint than gas-powered plants"

Im pretty confused by this. The energy density of LPG is 10x that of lithium-
ion, so why isn't the footprint smaller?

~~~
karyon
just guessing, maybe they mean the whole facility.

~~~
agumonkey
Kinda like nuclear core vs nuclear plant ?

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sctb
Recent discussion:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13467572](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13467572)

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aplomb
Says Tesla who bet the farm on lithium-based batteries.

There are better processes and chemistries hitting the market in the next year
- they just need to reach volume.

~~~
jbhatab
Curious, what kind of stuff is coming out that's better than Tesla?

I'd imagine there's all types of companies trying to solve this in different
ways.

~~~
philipkglass
High energy density matters a lot for electric vehicles but very little for
stationary grid-tied storage, so many more chemistries are potentially viable
for grid tied storage. The really interesting question is whether one or more
of them will reach sufficient volume to overcome the head start of lithium
ion.

A lot of thin film solar PV companies were quite sure that their costs would
be lower than the incumbent, crystalline silicon, once the manufacturing
volume got high enough. Most went bankrupt because their manufacturing volume
never grew fast enough for their designs' advantages to overcome the handicap
of smaller scale production. Tesla's chemistry uses cobalt, which is
expensive, but I don't know if low raw material costs alone are enough for
(e.g.) sodium ion batteries to win over something like lithium iron phosphate
batteries.

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newyankee
It will be interesting to see the old v new businesses powerplay with
technologies like these coming up so fast.

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mycall
Is there such a thing as "conflict free lithium"?

~~~
philipkglass
Conflict free lithium is just called lithium. None of the top producers have
active conflicts.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_lithium_p...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_lithium_production)

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Proven
"But for the most part, according to a BNEF analysis, the costs of new
projects would need to drop by half in order to be profitable on a wider scale
in California, and that’s not likely to happen for another decade"

The plunder continues...

