
The Electric Car - katm
http://blog.geoffralston.com/the-electric-car
======
reedlaw
I can't believe he's comparing a $70,000 electric car to a huge bucket labeled
"old-fashioned gasoline cars". Of course the $70,000 car is better in almost
every way. I've driven a lot of electric cars in the $5,000 to $10,000 range
and I assure you they are not better than "old-fashioned gasoline cars". Our
last gas-powered car was a used Lexus that cost us $8,000. It's an extremely
comfortable luxury car that seats 5 and can easily be driven across the
country. A new electric car [1], on the other hand, costs approximately the
same but can only seat 2 people and can travel 160 km on one charge. It's top
speed is 80 km/h. It takes 6 hours to fully charge. The costly lithium-ion
batteries will have to be replaced at some point. True, it is convenient for
trips around town without much luggage. I'm fairly confident that the used
Lexus will outlast and outrun the new electric car.

1\. This is the car: [http://chinaautoweb.com/car-models/zotye-zhidou-
zd-e20-ev/](http://chinaautoweb.com/car-models/zotye-zhidou-zd-e20-ev/)

~~~
sremani
For 10K (+3) if you live in USA, you can buy a Nissan Leaf that came out the 3
year lease, and it is a decent car that seats 5 people with a range of about
80+ miles. Batteries are expensive and will continue to be till the turn of
this decade and not a whole lot can be done. The better analogy would be
laptops vs desktops, laptops gave mobility but they were heavy did not have
the power etc. but by 2004 - 2006 they started to eclipse the desktops, EVs
will slowly eclipse, they are expensive with range limitations but as they
mature over couple of generations the efficiency gains coupled with economy of
scale would make them eclipse ICE. 10 years from now, you will not find a Pure
ICE vehicle in new cars, every car will have battery of some meaningful size.

~~~
chrisguilbeau
We just bought a used leaf for 12k at carmax. It was a 2013 with 16,000 miles
on it and it easily gets 80 miles to a charge. All of the great things you
read about them have all been true for us, super quiet, surprising
acceleration, convenience of charging at home. It was hard to get our hands on
one as they kept selling them as soon as they'd come in at carmax.

~~~
Brakenshire
Second hand electric cars, as long as the battery is solid, should be an
excellent deal if you're in the sweet spot for commuting distance. 50 miles a
day equates to $1000 a year in US gas costs, and £2000 ($3000) in UK petrol
costs. Especially in the UK, if you can get a used Leaf for £10-12k* , that's
going to be by far the most economical way of running a second/commuting car.

* That seems to be the going rate for a two year old Leaf on Autotrader.

------
harshaw
I wish people would be _slightly_ more honest about technological change.
Smartphones are very special. They are very cheap, easy to mass produce, and
you can iterate on them very quickly. Cars on the other hand have a much
longer life cycle, involve much more capital, and in general are going to
follow an elongated investment / replacement cycle. Comparing these two
systems, while enthusiastic and great for a college term paper, seems
premature.

I am really excited that there may be a fleet of self driving electric cars in
urban areas in 10 years. It's going to be awesome. But I am willing to bet for
the rest of us its going to be a more conservative change that is going to
evolve over decades.

~~~
patrickk
I hope things pan out the way the article predicts and I'm a massive optimist
for EV adoption in the long term. However, there's some obvious wrenches in
the plan for such quick adoption, including:

\- No great options currently for charging in apartments. Virtually the entire
world is on an urbanisation trend, so this segment of potential EV owners is
really important for adoption, and isn't being currently served.

\- People replace their cars at much slower rates than smartphones.

I think there is a lot of potential for disruption in the transportation
sector. Trucking companies and taxi fleets don't care if their vehicles are
big, ugly and heavy (as they would be if outfitted with batteries), cost is
the main factor. When EV running costs dip below the cost of ICE vehicles (and
when battery density improves the range sufficiently), these guys are going to
have a huge incentive to invest in EVs quickly.

Also, if someone figures out how to build an electric jet in the next few
decades, it will transform the airline industry who are currently held hostage
by the price of oil. Perhaps airlines can compete on service rather than price
gouging on "extras" that used to be covered by the cost of a ticket, to make
up for razor thin margins. Airports could also be built closer to city
centres, as the noise and air pollution concerns disappear.

~~~
Symmetry
I'm not sure why you'd expect that apartment owners wouldn't put chargers in
their garages? I'm guessing that a metering or coin operated overnight charger
wouldn't cost that much more than a normal charger. There's also the
possibility of workplaces providing chargers. Mine does but we're sort of
weird.

EDIT: Remember that a parking spot can easily cost over $10,000 so the extra
money for a charger isn't that much.

[http://shoup.bol.ucla.edu/HighCost.pdf](http://shoup.bol.ucla.edu/HighCost.pdf)

~~~
justinator
> I'm not sure why you'd expect that apartment owners wouldn't put chargers in
> their garages?

I've lived in many apartments, but I've never lived in an apartment that
included access to a garage. Many of the apartments I've lived in only had
parking available on the street.

~~~
Symmetry
I guess it's a matter of density? If you've only got two or three apartments
in a building street parking works but for more than that it's really not
feasible. If you like living in less dense areas that's great but my sense is
that most of the urbanization that's happening is at densities where street
parking isn't feasible.

------
JTon
> The reason electric cars will take over our roads is because consumers will
> DEMAND them. Electric cars will be better than any alternative, including
> the loud, inconvenient, gas-powered jalopy. The iPhone demonstrated that
> smartphones are infinitely better than the feature phones which dominated
> the world in 2007.

The smartphone revolution analogy makes me cringe. Electric cars are currently
playing catch up to their gasoline counterparts in almost every metric except
emissions. When the iPhone was released it quite literally leapfrogged the
competition (with the exception of battery life). What gives author?

~~~
higherpurpose
That's not quite true. In 2007 you would see 90% of the Internet comments talk
about how feature-less an iPhone was compared to the Nokia N95 (or whatever
was its Nokia competitor at the time). In fact there were some memes comparing
the iPhone with a _rock_.

The original iPhone didn't have video recording, had only 2G support (Nokias
supported 3G for a while), didn't support MMS, and it didn't even have apps!
And of course something like 1/3 the battery life of Nokia phones with 2"
screens.

The iPhone at the time "only" had the benefits of a big screen, touch, and an
"easy to use interface". But that was about it - which of course _was_ game-
changing. But the point is it didn't have "many" benefits over the phones at
the time. Quite the opposite (especially from the perspective of
Nokia/Blackberry/etc phone users at the time - which were 99% of the people).

Electric cars have maximum torque (and usually much higher than your average
gas-powered car in the same class) from the moment you put your foot on the
pedal, they give smooth _liniar_ acceleration (no gear changing), are very
silent, cost much less to recharge (about 1/5), have 1/3 the maintenance
costs, an order of magnitude fewer parts that can break on you, and have the
potential to use 100% renewable energy in the future.

~~~
ekianjo
> and have the potential to use 100% renewable energy in the future.

Except when it comes to manufacturing them.

~~~
eru
Recycle them?

------
erikpukinskis
I don't think people full comprehend the price drop that is imminent. The
total cost of ownership per mile for a car in the U.S. right now is about
$0.60. I was watching a panel the other day where someone calculated the cost
per mile of a fleet of self-driving on-demand electric cars at $0.08.

That an 86% reduction. People might have their misgivings about any of this
stuff... electric, self-driving, carshare, and of course many people will go
their own way. But for an 86% reduction in your monthly auto bill, it's going
to be an avalanche.

~~~
powera
If a Tesla Model S costs $70000, even if electricity and maintenance are free
(and there's no premium for self-driving) you would have to drive it 875000
miles for it to cost $0.08/mile. This seems like the type of thing that is
literally unbelievable without more evidence than "I heard somebody on a panel
say this".

~~~
krschultz
What's crazy about 875,000 miles?

Most personal gasoline cars last approximately 200,000 miles, but people
rarely keep them that long because for the average driver the car is 10-20
years old. The interior will wear out long before the engine. If the car
manufacturers built the drivetrain to last 400,000 miles, they would just be
wasting money.

If the car is running 24/7 at 30 mph, you would top 250k miles per year. I
imagine they will design the cars to last more than a year, potentially a few,
so 750,000 miles is not off the table.

Also in the world where a car is an autonomous income producing asset, initial
cost matters a lot less and total lifetime cost matters a lot more. Businesses
will do the math and buy vehicles that minimize their cost. Automotive
engineers will put more effort into reliability because fleet owners will have
data to measure.

It's a different world. A lot of our current assumptions will get rethought.

~~~
phillc73
I find it hard to imagine a conventional petrol powered car only lasting
200,000 miles. Which manufacturers only build cars to last 200,000 miles?

I can't think of a car I, or my family, have owned which hasn't lasted at
least twice that long.

My current car is a 2002 BMW E39 530D. It has almost 900,000 kms on the clock
and is still going strong on the original engine. The cloth interior is still
in quite reasonable condition. There has of course been the need for minor
maintenance (rear shocks were required at the last inspection). Right now I
need new door seals and there is some minor rust attended to. However, at a
consumption of approximately 7 liters per 100 km on the autobahn, I don't see
any need to buy a newer car for quite some time yet.

~~~
erikpukinskis
In some sense, if a vehicle is well built, properly maintained, and driven
gently, it will last forever. You just replace the car part by part over time.

The issue is if it's poorly maintained or it's abused, or if it's not well
built. And a sizable percentage of cars in the fleet fall into at least one of
those categories. The number that we need to worry about from a policy
perspective is not the life of the car in the best case scenario, it's the
life of the car in the expected scenario.

------
hackuser
The real story my be that car sales may decline, gas or electric:

* People drive less; I saw a study showing that significantly fewer millenials are licensed to drive than their predecessors.

* More people live in cities, where the cost of cars is higher (insurance and parking) and the demand for them is less due to the proximity of destinations and the availability of alternatives (public transport, taxis, ride-sharing, car sharing, bicycling)

* Energy costs likely will increase.

* As awareness of climate change grows, people will be less willing to cause greenhouse gas emissions (and the energy in your electric car battery must come from somplace, probably a fossil-fuel in a power plant).

~~~
ghaff
According to FiveThirtyEight, the urbanization trend is largely exaggerated.
The more accurate statement is that college-educated millennials are somewhat
more likely to live in a handful of particularly dense urban locations (think
Brooklyn).[1]

In fact, among all adults 25-34 the percentage in urban locations overall has
actually declined. The data is a bit hard to interpret for a variety of
reasons but the bottom line is that, according to this data: "Millennials
overall, therefore, are not increasingly living in urban neighborhoods.
Rather, the most educated one-third of young adults are increasingly likely to
live in the densest urban neighborhoods. That’s great news for cities trying
to attract young graduates and a sign that urban neighborhoods have become
more desirable for those who can afford them. But the presence of more smart
young things in Brooklyn is not evidence that millennials are a more urban
generation."

[1] [http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-millennials-are-
less...](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-millennials-are-less-urban-
than-you-think/)

~~~
hackuser
Thanks; that's useful to know. I should point out that I wasn't only talking
about millennials.

~~~
ghaff
The urbanization trend outside millennials is even less however.

------
tikhonj
> _The Tesla Model S has demonstrated that a well made, well designed electric
> car is far superior to anything else on the road._

I think this is a bit of an exaggeration. What the Tesla Model S has
_actually_ shown is that a startup-designed $100k electric car can be
comparable to $100k luxury cars (S-class, 7-series... etc) and that classic
car makers got complacent on certain features (like electronic UI elements).
Much of what he said is true, or could easily be true, for $100k gasoline cars
too!

In fact, I think that's enough of an exaggeration for me to question his whole
conclusion. He made a good case for why _Tesla_ could be the next big thing,
but just like Android popped up against the iPhone, I could see gasoline cars
copying many of the advantages—anything that's not a direct result of an
electric drive-train.

This isn't to say that electric cars _won 't_ take over—I think they very well
might—but the blog post doesn't make the best case for it.

I also really dislike that whole argument style of cherry-picking a
"disruptive" innovation that happened to succeed but ignoring all the others
that either failed or didn't deliver for decades. You can't generalize the
smart-phone's success that easily! It feels like a pernicious case of what
poker players call "results oriented thinking"[1], which is something I see _a
lot_ in business analysis.

[1]: [http://www.toppokersites.com/strategy/results-oriented-
think...](http://www.toppokersites.com/strategy/results-oriented-thinking/)

~~~
chillingeffect
Too true. It's classic case of "seek and ye shall find."

OP wanted to see all the reasons why something he hopes is true, and he found
them all.

He did _not_ want to see any reasons why his hopes might not be true, so he
sought none of them.

------
swombat
Interesting article, though it forgets the elephant in the room: self-driving
cars.

The two will probably work hand in hand, but it is unlikely, in my opinion,
that any electric cars will be charging at home very much, because most
electric cars will be owned by companies, not individuals. Why own a car when
you can pay a tiny percentage of a cab fare to go anywhere? When a journey
that currently costs $50 costs 20 cents, private car ownership will plummet.

~~~
philwelch
What if the self-driving electric cab gets soiled with the last passenger's
bodily fluids?

~~~
dragonwriter
It will probably have facilities for identifying that condition and either
self-cleaning or notifying the central dispatch system that it needs to be
taken out of the rotation until cleaned.

Pretty much the same thing as a human-driven cab.

 _Worst_ case, all those things fail, and a dirty cab shows up, and you reject
it on the hailing app with an explanation of why, leading to some delay till
you get the next available cab. Its not like unexpected failures and delays
don't happen with personally owned and operated owner-driven vehicles.

~~~
philwelch
People are still disincentivized from soiling taxis by the presence of the
driver. Though at the very least, you'll have to have a
membership/accountability system in place, and that becomes harder and harder
as you scale.

~~~
jannotti
Cars can drive autonomously, but they can't sense a spill?

~~~
Qwertious
Person has a drink inside their bag, no tech that let's the car see through
solid objects, it doesn't even know the drink is there.

That's unusual, butnot even the only problem. Someone needs to write something
to recognise a liquid container. Not just the one, but all of them, some of
which it's never seen before. Not simple.

~~~
dragonwriter
Doesn't need to recognize liquid containers, hidden or otherwise, just needs
to detect spills.

And, AFAIK, moisture sensors for the kinds of materials used in cat interiors
already exist, so it's not particularly novel.

------
stuaxo
"Ten years ago a prediction that this would be the future would have been met
with scorn or laughter"

... this sounds like bollocks, I guess I am an outlier as I worked on J2me
apps at the time, but mobile phones where _everywhere_ in 2005, the US was a
bit behind, but certainly in the UK mobile wasn't the future, but the present
- many of those people used apps and games, they just didn't know what an
'app' was although they used them.

~~~
sixothree
Specifically smartphones. The landscape for which in 2005 was absolutely
abysmal. The iPhone was revolutionary in almost every way down to the silence
switch and visual voicemail.

~~~
Aloha
The iPhone was evolutionary, not revolutionary, it pulled together a bunch of
ideas from a ton of different places (visual voicemail for example was seen in
various TAPI applications in the 90's) - what made the iPhone slick, was not
what it did - a 2006 era palm did everything the iPhone did - its that it
worked better than all of its progenitors.

------
mschuster91
While I agree with the author that electric vehicles will in not long time
dominate the car market, I strongly disagree with point #3:

> Gas stations will start to go out of business as many more electric cars are
> sold, making gasoline powered vehicles even more inconvenient.

Gas stations even today don't make money with gas, it's next to a loss leader
to get customers into the store and spend money on snacks and car parts that
won't go away with e-cars (windshield wipers, wiper fluid) - and in many
regions gas stations are exempt from normal store opening hours and serve as
24h-supermarket. The convenience of a readily available store, even with a
hefty markup, simply is too good to avoid it.

~~~
MattHeard
Aren't they convenient because they're only a few yards from your car? If you
no longer need to drive to the gas station to get fuel, it's a lot less
convenient, isn't it?

~~~
artursapek
They're convenient because they're right off the freeway. The gas pumps will
disappear and be replaced with superchargers.

------
JacobAldridge
One element Geoff doesn't cover in the comparison, which I think will slow the
take-up, is that the lifecycle of a phone (<2 years) versus the lifecycle of a
car (4-5 years?).

And those (from memory, please correct with data) are median averages. For
every person still toting an iPhone3 I imagine there are scores still driving
a 1993 Camry.

Smartphones exploded in use over the timeframe described, because the
technology improved rapidly AND consumers upgraded 2-3 times so could choose
the newest and best. Even if cars had similar tech trajectories, the market is
moving more slowly.

Of course, electric cars have a secondary market that's much stronger than
used phones, which will work against my numbers.

~~~
quanticle
4-5 years? Try more like 10. Cars have only gotten more and more reliable, and
that, combined with the economic recession have meant that people hold on to
cars for longer and longer.

------
beamatronic
I see a very simple story: Among friends and family, I don't know anyone who
would not get a Tesla, who doesn't already have one, once it reaches their
price range. I also want to add that most folks I know are planning to make
their cars last until such time as they can switch them out for a Tesla (
Model X preferably as a minivan replacement ).

~~~
mod
Once they release a true offroad type vehicle--preferably a pickup, I'll be
buying one. I'm not sure the model x does it for me, though it'll be a
"maybe."

I live in an area that can have limited access in bad weather, where 4x4 &
high clearance are requirements, and right now a Tesla wouldn't cut it.

------
reustle
> Thanks to Sam Altman for having read an earlier version of this post.

Does this add anything to the article, or is it just a way to say "I'm friends
with Sam". Do people proofreading a short article expect this sort of thing?

~~~
nicboobees
It's there to suggest that he agrees completely with the article, and if you
disagree with any of it, you must be crazy.

------
sgustard
An excellent but longer and more detailed piece in the same vein is "How Tesla
Will Change The World" at

[http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/06/how-tesla-will-change-your-
lif...](http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/06/how-tesla-will-change-your-life.html)

------
martinald
To be honest, this misses the point in urban areas (which is increasingly
where everyone wants to live).

There's too much congestion for cars to work in urban areas, at least for
commuting. It doesn't matter whether they are autonomous, electric, petrol,
hydrogen or whatever. The capacity of a multi-lane freeway vs a heavy rail
commuter line or metro is so small, even with carpooling.

Unless suddenly this trend reverses and everyone wants to live in the suburbs,
the car is really in trouble.

I use public transit nearly all the time and for the times I don't, I take an
uber. I tried uber once when there was a problem with transit, and the door to
door time was something like 4x the metro due to traffic. Never again.

~~~
JacobAldridge
Isn't a big part of congestion due to inefficient human driving?

While it won't be v1.0, I could see autonomous vehicles taking half the cars
off the road (car pooling) and then providing much more efficient transit
regarding speed, lane changes, real time route selection etc.

This will definitely be more valuable for the suburbs, or cities with poor
public transport infrastructure. Perhaps in some places your autonomous Uber
will take you to a much more efficient bus hub (departing every 5 minutes) on
the city fringe, but I do believe it will work in urban areas as well.

And don't forget, comparing Uber in a time of transit problems isn't really a
fair comparison as those are the times when many other people, not used to
making that drive, flood the roads. If I drive to the right train station,
transit is about 30% faster for me during peak hour so I agree with your
point.

~~~
martinald
Maybe in some cities, but the roads in London are gridlocked all the time and
there is something like a 98:2 ratio of people using mass transit vs driving.
I would assume it is the same in NYC, etc. No amount of lane selection, car
pooling will ever make that better. And unless people carpool from the exact
same place to the same workplace, there's going to be duplication of drop off
points which probably makes things worse as they'll be downtown with the most
traffic.

And no, there was no surge on uber to get that journey. There was other
transit routes everyone else will take but I was in a real rush (even routing
round the disruption would've still been way faster than driving).

To be honest though, if you're driving to the transit station then you're
missing the point. I'm really talking to the masses of people that have giving
up/will give up their car entirely and rely on public transit & the occasional
taxi (uber, autonomous, whatever) for when they've been out partying or what
not.

------
elorant
If electric cars are going to become mainstream we certainly need something
far more affordable than Model S. With the money it costs I could buy a
Mercedes S-Class which is unparalleled in terms of quality and ride comfort.
Furthermore in regions like Europe you can run in all short of inconsistencies
with incompatible sockets/recharge stations. Just the other day I was watching
a video [1] of a car journalist who tried to make the trip from UK to
Amsterdam in a BMW i3 Rx and it took him twice the time it would with a
conventional car.

[1]
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0f0_hqWdTk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0f0_hqWdTk)

~~~
greglindahl
... no wonder several manufacturers are working on long-range cars more
affordable than the Model S. Examples: Tesla Model 3, Chevy Bolt, ...

------
toephu2
Seems that this article fails to mention that owning a house is a prerequisite
to buying an EV (electric vehicle). If you rent a room in a house, it's
unlikely the landlord is going to install a charger just for you, and the same
goes for apartment complexes. So that already excludes a large portion of the
population from buying an EV. I bet 90% of EV owners are not renting their
residence. (The other 10% can charge at work or other places, but relative to
the number of parking spaces, count how many charging stations there are at
BigCo)

~~~
butwhy
If you're just commuting; charge it at your workplace? park it anywhere you
can access a power outlet? If absolutely nothing is available, spend an hour
of your time on the weekend using a supercharger.

~~~
ams6110
Fine for the handful of spaces at work that have a charging outlet. Most
workplaces don't have any. Nor will they want to pay for the electricity to
charge everyone's car. It's all fun and games to do it for two or three cars
as a novelty. It will be an entirely different matter to do it for hundreds of
employees. And even if they wanted to do it, and have a payroll deduction or
something to pay for it, the electrical grid will need to be upgraded to
deliver that kind of power.

I believe that scaling up the electrical grid is going to be the biggest
impediment to mass adoption of electric cars. It may happen, but not in 10
years. It will take many decades.

------
aabajian
The original iPhone had a lot going for it, but I think it was the call-the-
Starbucks example that really sold it for me. Remember Steve Jobs on stage
looking up the GPS walking path to Starbucks, and having the phone number
ready with one-push? It just made perfect sense - a smart phone eliminates the
yellow pages.

I don't know if I can find such a feature for an electric car. It's nice that
you can plug it in at home, but this is just replacing one need (visit a gas
station) with another (remembering to plug it in / staying close to home).

------
darkstar999
Someone has to be working on battery swaps instead of charging, right? That
seems like such an easy solution to what most people consider the biggest
problem with electric.

~~~
ececconi
Tesla is working on battery swaps. The problem with it so far is that you have
to return to the location where you swapped your battery to retrieve your
original battery later, or be hit with a hefty fine.

~~~
greglindahl
Tesla has now apparently invited everyone who's ever charged at the Harris
Ranch charger, on I5 between LA and SF, to use it. Personally, I tend to stop
for dinner there, so supercharging isn't a problem.

------
SQL2219
One point not addressed in this article: gas will get cheaper and fuel
efficiencies will rise. Internal combustion will not just lay down and
disappear.

------
rickdale
My big qualm with the electric cars that I don't read about is the
40minute-1hour charging. People complain that charging stations aren't near
them, but the convenience of pulling into a gas station filling up and being
ready for another 400 miles in less than 5 minutes is hard to beat. Even if
the charging stations were all around, 5 versus 40-60 min is a big difference.

~~~
soperj
There's no way you fill your car in 5 minutes, and Superchargers are noted to
take 30 minutes, not 40-60.

~~~
beambot
It takes no more than 5 minutes from the moment I drive into a gas station to
the moment I drive out to refill my Honda civic (10 gal). EPA dictates a
maximum pump rate of 10 gal per minute [1].... so the actual pumping phase of
fill-ups is just 1 minute for my car.

[1] [http://www.epa.gov/OMS/regs/ld-
hwy/evap/spitback.txt](http://www.epa.gov/OMS/regs/ld-hwy/evap/spitback.txt)

------
laurentoget
If this prediction is right, the electric grid will have a tough time catching
up. Power plants take a long time to plan, fund and build.

~~~
D_Alex
But the electric car can be the tool to enable wider use of intermittent-
supply renewable energy, like wind or solar! With some smarts, the cars can be
charged at high supply/low demand times, and even feed energy back to the grid
when demand is high and supply is low.

There is money to be made in making this happen, people!

Also, I did the math once on how much extra power a city will need if all cars
go electric. It is not that much: take Perth, Australia, as an example. We
have about 5.5 GW installed power generation capacity (there is a huge gap
between this and the actual usage which peaks at less than 3.5 GW usually, but
that is another story...). We have say 500,000 cars, driving 40 km/d on
average... that's 20 million km driven, at 5 kwhr/km we need an extra 4
million kwhr/day. If the charging is spread over 20 hours, that is an extra
200 MW required to supply them all. A 200 MW power station is small-ish.

------
jebblue
"The iPhone demonstrated that smartphones are infinitely better than the
feature phones which dominated the world in 2007."

The iPhone had predecessors, some Apple, some Microsoft, many tiny companies
with good ideas but no business brains. It like the electric car stood on the
shoulders of giants.

The electric car still has two major hurdles (I wish it weren't true I really
wish that the prediction comes true): 1) the Oil industry is powerful 2)
batteries.

With a car, if I want to take a short trip to the local gas me up station then
decide to drive 300 miles just to say hey to a friend...I could do that. With
an electric car and today's batteries, each "filling" station would have to be
able to provide a fully charged, safe battery pack that is compatible with my
vehicle.

If better batteries could be made with oil, adoption for electric cars would
be overnight and the prediction manifested.

------
higherpurpose
> Gas stations will start to go out of business as many more electric cars are
> sold, making gasoline powered vehicles even more inconvenient.

That's a great point that I've never considered before.

> On the other hand, the potential exists for a huge rollout of home solar
> power over the next decade.

Electric cars will convince their owners to install rooftop solar panels, too,
which will then convince them to get Powerwall-like batteries for backup,
which will then decrease the price of batteries, which will then make electric
cars cheaper and more appealing to more people.

It's a beautiful feedback loop.

And wow DOE's predictions are _terrible_ (first source). It's almost as if
they went around surveying car manufacturers about their plans to make
electric cars in 2013 and then made their predictions for _27 years later_
based on _that_. Just terrible.

And 11% cars will be using ethanol in 2040? Really? I'll be surprised if 0.11%
of them will use ethanol by then.

> The current range of a Model S tops out at about 300 miles. Even GM is
> extending it's Volt to 200 miles to effectively compete with Tesla.

Volt is the range-extender, and it doesn't come near that (for battery
mileage). You're thinking "Bolt" which is not really meant to be the successor
to Volt, because it's a full EV and doesn't have a range extender. That's what
they claim it will do on battery alone. It will compete with Model 3, not S.

> Battery technology is difficult, but it would be extremely surprising if the
> available ranges don't double again in 5 years or less.

I agree. Part of it will be from the natural evolution of Li-ion batteries,
and part from Tesla's Gigafactory coming online. I expect battery prices to
drop in half again to around $100 in another 5 years, after Apple has launched
its electric car, too, and Tesla has made a couple more Gigafactories + the
natural progress in density of the batteries. After that we might need some
breakthroughs to go to $50 or less per kWh.

$100/kWh should be enough to switch the "Early Majority" to EVs, which is half
the population. The other half will need batteries to be $50/kWh (or less) to
make EVs cheap enough but also with long enough range for the more
conservative gas-powered car drivers, who probably won't accept anything less
than a (real) 500 mile range on an EV.

------
skc
Must be nice to live in the first world.

I've always wondered if the realization of this electric car utopia in the
first world will eventually lead to Lamborghinis and Porches being dumped on
us poor people in the third world like hand me down clothes.

------
lvs
I can't imagine what the iPhone has to do with an electric car. The post just
refers to a software interface (which all cars now have), a network
conncetion, and automatic updates. None of these relies on the powertrain of
the car.

~~~
rosser
TFA is drawing a parallel between the way smartphones, as heralded by the
iPhone, transformed the mobile phone market, and the way electric cars, as
heralded by the Model S, will do to the car market.

That's what the one has to do with the other.

~~~
rhino369
But it's a really poor parallel. People wanted a smartphone because it was a
total game changer. Electric cars are not.

I'm an electrical engineer and I only sort of give a shit what kind of
powertrain by car has. My mom? Doesn't know or care how her car works. My dad?
Probably against electrical out of old man-back in my dad behavior.

Cost will be the big change. Once an electric car is cheaper than gas, the
public will switch. But that is not why people switched to smartphones.

Also part of the reason for the smartphone revolution is the market psychology
behind carriers subsidizing very expensive phones. People think their iPhone 6
costs 200 bucks.

Finally, the short upgrade cycle for phones is totally different than cars
which last for like 15 years on average.

~~~
snogglethorpe
Smartphones _weren 't_ a "total game changer", they were a jump in CPU power
and interface smoothness, but the trends were already there (maybe not in the
U.S., I dunno).

------
dangrossman
The future's already here. A 2-3 year old Nissan Leaf, top trim with all the
features, with 10-20K miles on it and a 7-year factory CPO warranty, costs
just $10-12K. That's thousands less than the average price paid for a used car
last month. If your commute's less than 40-50 miles each way, you can have all
the advantages of owning an EV today, not X years down the line. Zero gas,
zero maintenance, zero emission inspections, and damn fun to drive. And you
don't need any special charging hardware; you can plug it into any old 120V
wall socket overnight.

~~~
chc
Eh, I'm not sure the Leaf is the future for most people. Based on what I've
heard from Leaf owners, even a commute of 35 miles can be iffy depending on
travel conditions. And even if your Leaf can make the trip today, common
levels of battery degradation on the Leaf will place that commute out of your
range within a couple of years (the users at mynissanleaf.com estimate that a
battery can be expected to lose about 10% of its capacity after one year, 15%
after two years and 26% after five years under moderate conditions).

------
ph0rque
For gas stations, the profit from gas is ~1%, but the profit from snacks etc.
is much higher. So gas stations could easily add electric charging stations
and continue making profit. Source: worked at Sheetz during high school and
college, sat through their corporate presentations from time to time.

Now, it is true that the electric charging stations have to compete with an
additional category: people charging at home, so there will be gas station
closings. The first franchise to add electric chargers should still be
profitable, though.

------
stellar678
While I'm all on-board for the importance and awesomeness of a wholesale
transition to electric transportation, I think this essay leaves out some
important considerations.

The primary one that pops to mind for me: people replace their phones every
2-3 years. ([http://www.phonearena.com/news/Americans-replace-their-
cell-...](http://www.phonearena.com/news/Americans-replace-their-cell-phones-
every-2-years-Finns--every-six-a-study-claims_id20255))

How often do people replace their car?

~~~
ahlatimer
Just shy of 6 years for a new car: [http://www.kbb.com/car-news/all-the-
latest/average-length-of...](http://www.kbb.com/car-news/all-the-
latest/average-length-of-us-vehicle-ownership-hit-an-all_time-
high/2000007854/)

Obviously a significant portion of those cars remain on the road, just with
new drivers. As of 2012, the average age of cars on the road is 11 years:
[https://www.mainstreet.com/article/how-long-do-you-keep-
car-...](https://www.mainstreet.com/article/how-long-do-you-keep-car-
americans-are-driving-them-ground)

------
gambiting
Eeeeeee, coming from a country where average age of a car on the road is 10+
years, I would say absolutely no. And about fuel stations becoming less
profitable and closing...how do you think stations survive in remote places of
the world where there is very few cars? They increase their prices. And some
of us will still gladly pay those prices,because we have to drive
petrol/diesel powered cars(trucks are not going to be electric powered for a
long time).

------
staunch
I find even this view to be pessimistic and limited, because it assumes we
need to keep fairly conventional (but electric) cars around, which we don't!

It's likely we'll rapidly end up with something like the computer controlled
"carpods" Google is building, which could be radically cheaper than any car
people have to be able to drive. Even if they can only go 45mph, that's enough
to navigate most major cities at an optimal speed.

~~~
eru
Vehicles driving at most 25 mph are regulated much lighter than `cars' in the
USA, that's why Google chose that speed limit for their `carpods'.

------
Corrado
I have test driven a Model S and I will strive to never purchase a ICE driven
car again. I, quite literally, changed my perspective on transportation and my
life. Previously, I've been lusting after a used 911 or S4 but no more.

Tesla has my business, especially if they can pull off a ~$35k in a couple of
years. All I have to do is make my current A4 & Honda Odyssey make it a bit
longer. :)

------
kumarski
I think this is a tough discussion to have without discussing the following
engineering realities and understanding how the needle moves for each of them
over time.

Key Metrics:

Specific Energy Density

Cost/ Unit of Specific Energy Density

Liquid Hydrocarbin Energy Density vs. Galvanic Battery Density

Simplicity and Maintainability

[http://qr.ae/7L89on](http://qr.ae/7L89on) (everyone should read this post.)

------
sharemywin
Part of the iPhones success was the base of iPod users with music collections
in the ecosystem that could only get it on the their phone with an "upgrade".
No such thing exists for Telsa. Now when someone figures out drive as a
service and it cost <$200/mo for the average user with a commute. You have a
disruptive scenario.

------
sosuke
We just need to add outlets everywhere. I'd love one, but I don't have a place
to charge it.

~~~
mahyarm
The electric car is actually fairly inconvenient if you don't have a garage or
a parking spot that you rent / cannot install an outlet on.

The cycle time on vehicles is far higher than a cheap smartphone mainly due to
their expense. And a large amount of the article's bullet points are not
something that would be unique to an electric car.

When you take public transit, as long as the train/bus isn't loud, would you
care to notice if it was electric or gas based? Or how fast it got you where
you wanted to go with comfort?

~~~
cowsandmilk
Boston has added hybrid buses to their fleet. They are much quieter. I'm a
fan.

But I agree about the parking spaces. Even now in new construction, it is
considered forward thinking to have 2 or 3 spaces with outlets out of 100. For
the future of electric cars, they should at least have conduit to spaces where
outlets could be installed.

~~~
greglindahl
New construction in Palo Alto, including single family homes, is required to
have that sort of thing pre-installed. Conduit only for single-family homes, a
lot of conduit and some actual chargers for multi-family and commercial
buildings.

~~~
mahyarm
If you own a single family home, then electric cars are ok. If you live in a
multiunit, rent, do not have a garage or similar, then charging at home is not
practical.

~~~
greglindahl
Well, you just responded to a Tesla owner who rents in a multi-unit apartment.
I charge, overnight once per week, in a city garage 1 block away. I didn't say
it was easy or common, but that it's possible and getting more common.

(And if I ever get short, there's a new supercharger in Mountain View.)

Palo Alto's new law mandating chargers in new construction just recently
passed; in a few years it will begin to take effect. And they'll probably
extend it to renovations of older buildings, etc etc.

~~~
sosuke
I want a Tesla, but you are far and away more dedicated to the idea that I am.

------
joars
I though the lesson from the iphone's success was that a product with less
features, easier to use and more integrated make great products. With that
reasoning plug-in hybrids are the future, although I'm personally rooting for
pure electric to win in the end.

------
Istof
To me the best parts of an electric car is that the power-train assembly is
much simpler then with a gas powered one and it can be powered with pretty
much any kind of energy... whatever feeds your home. and the downfall is of
course the range.

------
callesgg
A big problem is that battery's require lithium, which is quite rare(not
supper rare but still rare enough for it to be a problem).

My prediction is that sales if electric cars wont become exponential until we
get cheaper and greener battery technology.

~~~
RedCrowbar
That lithium is rare is a common misconception. It is actually one of the more
abundant elements on Earth, especially in seawater [1].

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Terrestrial](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Terrestrial)

~~~
D_Alex
Also, the on-land lithium deposits considered commercial already have enough
lithium to make every car in the world electric, plus provide battery storage
(like tesla power wall) for every home in the world. See:

[http://lesswrong.com/lw/m4r/stupid_questions_may_2015/cbjf](http://lesswrong.com/lw/m4r/stupid_questions_may_2015/cbjf)

------
dnautics
> In fact, in 2005 few if any of the futurists would have even been able to
> imagine the kind of device most of us now depend upon.

Well, let's be honest, mod the implementation details, Star Trek pretty much
got this correct with the PADD.

~~~
toomuchtodo
If I may nerd out for a moment, the technical manual [+] for the Enterprise
(NCC-1701-D) even specified that the entire craft could be piloted from a
PADD. This is entirely reasonable based on today's mobile device hardware (I'd
argue, if you're offloading computationally expensive tasks to a central
processor and using a mobile device solely for taking in aggregated sensor
data and outputting navigational commands).

[+] [https://cudebi.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/franchise-star-
tr...](https://cudebi.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/franchise-star-trek-tng-
technical-manual1.pdf)

------
vamur
Without cheap batteries, electric cars are a niche product, unfortunately. And
with the Iran deal, oil and natural gas are going to be even cheaper so
electric cars would become even more expensive.

------
tomtang0514
I can't believe he said electric cars are more fun to drive. There're fun to
drive electric cars such as tesla and fiat 500e, but they're never more fun to
drive than most (if not all) other cars in it's price range. The only
advantage of an electric car in terms of performance is torque. And it doesn't
necessary has more torque. Yes electric cars has maximum torque at 0 rpm, but
do anyone actually bother looking at it's torque curve? Different from
gasoline cars, the torque of electric cars goes DOWN when rpm goes up. I do
believe electric cars make a lot of sense for normal people, especially
commuters, but please do not say it's more fun to drive because it's
absolutely not.

~~~
krschultz
Do you own one? Everyone I know that owns a Tesla says it's insanely fun to
drive. That includes a couple guys I know that own gasoline powered race cars
in the same price range as well as Teslas.

~~~
tomtang0514
I've test driven one and that's why I didn't bought it. Look at all those car
medias who put good words on Tesla, is there any one of them said it's more
fun to drive than things like the new Mercedes S class? I don't even compare
it to sports cars in that price range like corvette or 911. What kind of "race
car" are your friends talking about? A charger?

------
philwelch
This _might_ happen, but I think Geoff is a little too breathless here.
Smartphones cost up to $200 with contract. (Approximately nobody buys unlocked
phones in the US.) Almost anybody could scrape up $200, and for those who
can't, there are $0-with-contract smartphones by now and <$50 prepaid
smartphones.

The Tesla Model S costs $69,900. That is a hilarious amount of money to spend
on a car. That's $18,000 more than a Mercedes-Benz E-Class. $20,000 more than
an Audi A6. $45,000 more than a Toyota Prius. $50,000 more than a Volkswagen
Jetta. You could buy a different, damn good used car for every day of the work
week for the cost of a single Tesla Model S.

OK, you say, but the iPhone launched at a high price too. The difference is,
the iPhone's price came down in a couple of years and the Tesla's price is
still extremely high, even for a luxury car, seven years after the launch of
the Roadster. Is the price of a Tesla going to drop $50,000 in the next five
to ten years?

Has the Tesla sold well? About 50,000 Teslas have been sold in the United
States since 2012[1]. In contrast, Toyota sold over four times that number of
cars in June 2015 alone.[2] "Struggling" Volkswagen sold 30,000 cars in
April.[3] Even in the luxury category, BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus all sell in
excess of 300,000 cars a year[4]. 300,000 cars a year, vs. 50,000 cars in
three years.

The author also notes a number of advantages of the Tesla:

> It’s more fun to drive, with smooth, transmission-less acceleration. For
> most of us it is the fastest car we have ever owned.

> It’s quieter at all times and nearly silent at low speeds.

> It allows you to drive in the carpool lane

> It’s more roomy and has a trunk in the front (the “frunk”) AND a spacious
> back.

I agree with these.

> [It allows you] to sign up for a cheaper energy usage plan at home.

> It is always “full” every morning one drives it and you never need to go to
> a gas station.

This is true for people who live in detached houses. People who are
ecologically conscious often prefer not to do this, and that makes it harder
to gain a foothold among early adopters. In fact, among this segment, and
among the younger segment overall, Tesla's biggest competition isn't going to
be other car makers; it's going to be the decision not to own a car in the
first place. Once Tesla reaches a point of economical mass production, they
should seriously consider partnering with Zipcar to install charging stations
at Zipcar lots and provide Teslas as Zipcar fleet vehicles; in the long run,
they might get more Tesla drivers that way than they ever would selling
vehicles to individual buyers.

If electric cars are the future, I'm going to despair that in the 21st
century, we're still hauling around individual 300 pound Americans in 4,000
pound, 16 foot long cars. The trends towards young people returning to the
city center and not owning cars are both better trends to encourage and more
powerful trends than the trend of selling a really nice, $70,000 electric
luxury car.

> It has a user interface - including, notably, its navigation system - as
> superior to that of other cars as the iPhone was to earlier phones.

> It is connected to the Internet.

> It continuously gets better with automatic updates and software
> improvements.

> It comes with an app that allows you to manage the car from your phone.

None of these are inherent to electric cars, and any luxury marque should be
able to copy these, just like they've been copying from each other for years.
And once the luxury marques copy these features, they will filter down to all
new cars. (This is even assuming that the last three points are a positive,
which I don't think they are.)

> Gas stations will start to go out of business as many more electric cars are
> sold, making gasoline powered vehicles even more inconvenient.

On the contrary, I think not actually having to sell as much gas would be a
boon to the gas station. Gas stations make next to zero margin on actual
gasoline, and all of their margin on the convenience store. People on road
trips will still have to take breaks, use the restroom, and buy a Red Bull.
The gas station doesn't really care whether you refuel your car along the way,
but as long as they still exist and provide the service of refueling the
driver (and how hard is it to set up some sort of metered power jack for your
electric car at the gas station, too?), the business of actually selling fuel
will be subsidized.

In fact, here's another way to look at it: diesel-powered cars are fairly rare
in the US, and yet it's still easy to find a gas station that pumps diesel.
Not every gas station does it, but it's not a barrier to diesel fuel sales.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S#Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S#Global)

[2]
[http://toyotanews.pressroom.toyota.com/releases/toyota+lexus...](http://toyotanews.pressroom.toyota.com/releases/toyota+lexus+scion+june+2015+sales+release.htm)

[3] [http://media.vw.com/release/976/](http://media.vw.com/release/976/)

[4] [http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/05/us-usa-autos-
luxur...](http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/05/us-usa-autos-luxury-
idUSKBN0KE1RG20150105)

~~~
wagner12
<i> $20,000 more than an Audi A6. </i>

I don't know where you're getting your numbers, but my A6 I bought 8 YEARS AGO
cost more than $49,900. $70k is a lot of money without a doubt, but it's not
out of line for a mid-range luxury car. Unfortunately I don't find the Model S
to be as nice to drive or ride in (except in terms of acceleration) as the
gasoline cars in the same price bracket. That will change, it's not a knock
against electric cars in general, but I don't think the Model S is there yet
for the price.

~~~
philwelch
I literally googled "Audi A6". The base MSRP starts at $44,800.

------
roflchoppa
Eh. i would like to see independent garages retrofitting batteries into
classic cars.

but man, theres nothing like hearing carburetors on v8's.

~~~
jakejake
There does seem to be a small group of hot-rodder hackers who are doing that,
like this guy
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=369h-SEBXd8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=369h-SEBXd8)
\- the related videos on the side have a few more who are racing electric cars
in old bodies. I haven't seen one with a really classic hot rod body, but that
would be really cool.

~~~
roflchoppa
Yeah i've seen that car, theres also this classic mustang that this texas
company was working on. I think the biggest issue (like always) is battery
location and storage.

------
suprgeek
Shell, Exxon, BP will pour massive lobby dollars to slow down the spread of
electric cars. GM, Ford, Honda & Toyota (and the Dealer network) will get in
on the lobbying action against electric cars when they see their current
monopolies eroding.

Comparing the spread of the Smartphone (digital device by definition) to the
Spread of the Car (physical) and then extrapolating a best case future is
wishful thinking.

~~~
soperj
Smartphones are physical. They exist in my hand.

------
SQL2219
Then there is the whole theory that car ownership will go away as driverless
cars take over.

------
MattHeard
> Current predictions of the future of electric cars are as wrong as any
> predictions about the future of mobile phones made in 2005.

I find it odd that Mr. Ralston says this while predicting the future of
electric cars. Surely he meant "Everyone else's current predictions…"

------
pierotofy
I would still buy a gasoline car just because there are no charging stations
near where I live. Yeah you can charge at home, but if I have to take a longer
trip? At least for me, I will wait until charging stations become more
available. Could be a chicken and egg problem.

~~~
yesimahuman
Interesting to think about small towns that lack electric car infrastructure:
if many of those rely on tourism (thinking a remote seasonal vacation town),
as their customers increasingly drive electric cars, they will have to change,
which will bring more infrastructure to the whole city.

~~~
jrapdx3
I'm thinking about visiting a friend ~8 years ago. He lives in a rural area,
and back then cell phone signal coverage was _terribly_ spotty. Couldn't go
around a curve without risk of losing coverage.

But the situation improved. When I visited a few months back, what a huge
difference there was. I was amazed that out in the boondocks mobile phones
worked just about everywhere. (Well, at least in that locality.)

Seems to suggest that once the demand for electric vehicle recharging begins
to ramp up, the charge-station infrastructure will improve just as rapidly as
cell phone towers have proliferated.

Tourism may be one motivator but seems predictable that once electric vehicles
are good enough and affordable, small town residents themselves will generate
the bulk of the demand for this infrastructure.

------
lectrick
> and to sign up for a cheaper energy usage plan at home

Wait... What is this??

------
darkstar999
> The future of automotive transportation is an electric one and you can
> expect that future to be here soon.

The future is electric _driverless_ cars. How long until they are mandatory?

------
curiousjorge
I think the article is overly optimistic and derives some sort of future
prediction based on a simplified past performance of a totally different
market. Tesla is a luxury , many of us can't afford it and if we could we
would most likely opt for BMW or Benz.

The reason these other car makers aren't moving yet is they are learning from
Tesla. You don't want to be a first mover in this industry, you want to move
so slightly close to what everyone is doing but still differentiate yourself
on brand. Cars today have vastly improved across the board regardless of make.
To say gas stations will go out of business is ludicrous at best, Tesla will
go out of business sooner as established car brands move in and hurt bottom
line for Tesla. In the short while the euphoria towards Tesla will continue
but it's headed for a not so pleasant ending. Great for humanity, bad for
Musk.

~~~
monk_e_boy
I think people in the 2nd hand car market (like me) will quickly switch to
electric. They are simpler to fix and cheaper to fix. Nearly all my cars die
with head gasket issues, or oil leaks or timing belt issues. _does quick
count_ so that's 4 of my cars and 2 of my partners.

Electric engines won't die like that. And when they do, just grab a used one
from a junked car and off you go. With 'in wheel' electric motors, this may be
as simple as changing a wheel. This is huge for the 2nd hand market. Most
people I know who aren't 'techies' are really looking forward to electric
cars.

~~~
mikexstudios
True, but there's at least one really expensive component of electric cars
that needs replacement every 8 to 10 years: the battery. I think the current
price is about $10000 for the battery if you order from Tesla in advance.

Maintenance and repair costs of a gasoline vehicle over 10 years can be less
than that.

~~~
jessriedel
That's not a very good comparison, is it? After 10 years you'd have a nearly-
new electric car (from a reliability/repair standpoint) but you'd have a gas
car that was vastly more likely to break down and need costly repairs than
when you first bought it.

~~~
ams6110
So the electric car doesn't have an interior that will be worn out? Or worn
suspension components like ball joints, tie rods, bushings, steering rack? Or
air conditioning?

Electric cars also have highly sophisticated power control equipment. In 10
years of sysadmin work, the overwhelmingly most common failures I've seen have
been power supplies, voltage regulators, and capacitors. Remains to be seen
how well these components will hold up in real-world use in electric cars.

