
13,000 fall into homelessness every month in L.A. County - Futurebot
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-homeless-pathways-20150825-story.html
======
delecti
> The latest official homeless count found 44,000 people living in county
> streets in a three-day period in January, a 12% increase in two years

This means that the number of homeless is up from 39,285 (44,000/1.12) to
44,000 in 2 years. That's an average increase of about 196 per month. So out
of the 13,000 falling homeless each month, another 12,804 pull themselves out
of it. That's a much more sensible number.

I absolutely think this is a problem that needs attention, but it's not at
"the number of homeless is increasing by 13k each month" levels.

~~~
PythonicAlpha
> another 12,804 pull themselves out of it

That does only take the possibility of "pulling themselves out of it" into
regard as possibility to get out of the statistics. I can think of several
other ways to get out of the statistics: E.g. Dying, moving into an other area
...

I accept, that the numbers are not complete and somehow misleading, but simple
conclusions are too!

~~~
dogma1138
That would still mean that a single country, albeit the largest one turns
1.56% of it's population into homeless each year. Looking at statistics for
California as a whole there's no room to account for those homeless people so
it doesn't look like they are being dumped beyond the county lines.

So either they all died which would greatly skew the population statistics in
the US as a whole, moved out of California (which doesn't seem to be the case
since homelessness in adjutant states didn't sky rocket) or the truth is more
closer to what was stated than to yours.

(I would concede that perhaps that they might be in Mexico if you really want
to explore this further)

Also 9 million residents received "public assistance"? Even if it's over 8
years it's still a huge number considering that the LA county has a population
of about 10M, so unless going to school, voting, going to a hospital or being
borne counts as "public assistance" I would really like to see exactly how
they got to that number since the immigration statistics for that country
cannot account for a transfer of so many residents to have 9M requiring actual
"public assistance" over any reasonable period of time yet alone 8 years...

~~~
dreyfiz
It's not like the entire 9 million residents were on public assistance for the
entire 8 years. People come and go, most public assistance programs are time-
limited.

~~~
dogma1138
Yes I've addressed that but still 9M people out of 10M over 8 years is a huge
part of the population even when accounting for natural population changes and
migration patterns.

With ballpark numbers on migration[1] and natural population growth it would
mean that approximately 70% of the current LA county population today would've
used "public assistance" given the 9M figure.

This is why the definition of "public assistance" is very important since all
the statistics and the numbers in that article don't pass a simple smell test.

[1][https://www.census.gov/hhes/migration/files/acs/county-to-
co...](https://www.census.gov/hhes/migration/files/acs/county-to-
county/2007-2011/2007-2011_Flows_Working_Paper.pdf)

------
p_monk
According to a report that came out a few months ago, there has been a 12%
rise in homelessness in LA in the last 2 years. [1]

I believe that number is way underreported.

I don't have any evidence to point to. I've lived in Los Angeles my whole life
and have spent a lot of time in and around the skid row area since the late
90's.

All I can say is that in the last year, the population on skid row has
exploded. I don't know if its due to people being corralled into the area
because of development in the Arts District, LA Live, etc, but the radius of
skid row has at least doubled in the last year.

A couple weeks ago I drove through the area on a hot Sunday afternoon and I
had to pull over because I couldn't believe what I was seeing. Block after
block after block of streets full of homeless people. Not just the sidewalks,
but the streets were full of crowds too. I've been to plenty of third world
countries around the world, large and small, but never once have I seen so
much misery in one place as I saw in DTLA a couple weeks back.

1\. [http://circanews.com/news/us-homelessness-
recession-1](http://circanews.com/news/us-homelessness-recession-1)

~~~
carcamper
I'm curious how they do get accurate numbers on homeless. Is it just people
checking into shelters? I've been living in my car for 5 months now. I'm not
on any homeless radar/reports/etc. How many more people like me are there that
fly under the radar.

~~~
toomuchtodo
I'd love to hear details about why you're living out of your car.

~~~
RandomSeeded
Not that guy, but spent the last 6 months in my van.

Needed to leave my job, didn't have a new one lined up yet. Would have loved
to keep renting my place, but bay area rents are absurd. Bought a van, will
have lost about 1k after selling it, and so that was my 6mo of rent instead.

The amount of people living out of their vehicles is staggeringly high. Any
attempt to count the homeless, even in LA (which I understand does the best
job in the nation) will wildly undercount, as we're all doing our best to stay
out of sight and not get the cops called on us.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Thank you for sharing!

------
jorgenhorstink
"...and approximately 82,000 people are homeless on any given night." [1]

82,000 homeless on a population of 9,818,605 [2]; 0.835%

I just compared it to the 2012 stats for The Netherlands (highest homeless
count in 2012).

27,300 homeless [3] on a population of 16,779,575 [4]; 0.163%

That was a bit surprising to me. It looks like there are 5 times more homeless
per capita in LA than in The Netherlands...

[1]
[http://www.laalmanac.com/social/so14.htm](http://www.laalmanac.com/social/so14.htm)
[2]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles_County,_California](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles_County,_California)
[3] [http://www.cbs.nl/nl-
NL/menu/themas/bevolking/publicaties/ar...](http://www.cbs.nl/nl-
NL/menu/themas/bevolking/publicaties/artikelen/archief/2015/stijging-aantal-
daklozen-lijkt-voorbij.htm) [4]
[http://statline.cbs.nl/Statweb/publication/?VW=T&DM=SLNL&PA=...](http://statline.cbs.nl/Statweb/publication/?VW=T&DM=SLNL&PA=71090ned&HD=150827-2232)

~~~
hackuser
There should be zero homeless (or close to it) in the United States. The U.S.
is the richest country in the history of the world, by a long shot, and
growing wealthier every year. Certainly Americans can afford to provide basic
food and shelter (and healthcare) to _everyone_. We lose sight of concrete
reality when we get caught up in the economic and social philosophizing and
political conflict; nothing justifies leaving a human being on the street,
like a stray dog, when you can do something about it. There is no excuse.

~~~
simplyluke
This might not be popular here (and I'm not advocating it, merely bringing it
into the discussion), but Guaranteed minimum income
([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guaranteed_minimum_income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guaranteed_minimum_income))
has been proposed as a possible solution to homelessness in the US.

------
coderbrew
What is sad, a lot of homeless have serious mental health issues, anecdotal
evidence, I seem to see a lot of former military.

~~~
malkia
Same here, I often talk to them, give them money (you can't give them food, so
sometimes if they are nearby fast-food place or some store take them with you
and buy the things they need).

There was a guy years ago that lived outside a store across West-side
Pavillion (near Pico & Overland).

He talked to me that he was stationed in Germany long time ago, then came back
here, something happened, lost all of his documents, but something was going
to happen for him, and he really liked going back to Germany.

Years before this, somewhere on Ocean Park Blvd, across the Activision HQ,
there were these two homeless old dudes, drunk and barely walking - and we
said that we are programmers - and he asked as about "C" and that he worked at
AT&T long time ago with Denis Richie, Ken Thompson, etc... and I don't know
whether to believe him or not, but I doubt many people would know about the
founders of the "C" language.

~~~
marincounty
Going from employed to homeless can happen pretty quick--to most professions.
For some reason, I know too many homeless people who were former Programmers?

The stories are varied. One guy was screwed out of his contribution to Word
Star--I think? Another fell behind on his programming skills. The two are
trying to make the best of it, but will never be employable again. I have seen
them get jobs, but are fired after the first day. It seems like after you have
been homeless for a period of time, a suit from Goodwill and good intentions
are not enough?

People see these guys and ask the rude questions, like "Hay, I hear Google is
a great place to work!". They are well meaning, but don't have a clue to what
a winter homeless can do to a person.

The guys on the streets say around the one year mark of being homeless, your
personality changes. The stress of being homeless takes its toll. Being
harassed by Cops, daily, plays on your mind. Not having a safe, secure, legal
spot to make camp becomes very stressful. They all can't find a place to use
the restroom. If they happen to find a outhouse, you would think they found
gold.

The homeless guys, I know, just want a place to sleep that isn't illegial, and
a outhouse. They don't want much.

I think what too many people, in charge, don't realize is once you go
homeless, it practically impossible to be that rent paying, employee again?

People/Politicians mouth the words of help, but it's just words. Politicians
just want to rid their town of the homeless. I guess it's denial?

~~~
malkia
Actually I started working at Google (Los Angeles) almost a year ago, and our
office in Venice is full with homeless, but I haven't approached anyone yet.
I'll be there all the time, and I feel that awkward situations might arise.

I don't know how to help them really. There are tons of organizations
supposedly dealing and helping, but I don't know what really goes on.

(I've been "homeless" by my choice early in my student years, but it was more
of a "beta" test done for fun and "education" \- I was no longer eligible for
the dormitory, back in Bulgaria - that would be one of the 40-50 high-rise
buildings, and I slept in the "library" room for about a year, but lots of
friends lived in the same building and I've used bathroom, even good bed,
etc.). It was easy, as I was careless, hadn't been in the army (which made me
a bit better in that respect), and lied to my family about my situation (they
were still sending money). So clearly not really homeless, and on my own, but
was able to touch little of the issues these people might hit, though very
little.

~~~
groby_b
Hey office mate :)

Most of them are decidedly harmless. I don't exactly have extended
conversations with them, but I treat them like I'd treat any neighbor - say
hi, give a nod when seeing them, and if they're interested in chatting, chat a
bit.

If you want to help in a non-personal way, St. Joseph's is a great place.
(Other homeless shelters:
[http://www.suntopia.org/venice/ca/homeless_shelters.php](http://www.suntopia.org/venice/ca/homeless_shelters.php)).

If you want to get a bit more involved, ping our community affairs people.

------
ilaksh
Are there any apps that A) make it easy for people to host homeless families
or individuals, or B) let people offer housing at reduced rent after some type
of qualification or just based on a profile or C) allow people to pay into
pools similar to Section 8 to sponsor housing and then access funds from them
-- sort of like a privatized streamlined Section 8 app.

~~~
hackuser
This is a very interesting idea. Airbnb (or the sharing economy in general)
for providing homeless housing in spare bedrooms.

Obviously a big problem is the fear many people have of poor people. I think
it's mostly just fear of people who are different, but someone would have to
give hosts confidence in their own safety. If you could solve that ...

~~~
Kalium
Safety, property, damages, etc.

When the homeless population in your area skews significantly mentally ill,
this ceases to be mere "fear of people who are different".

~~~
hackuser
> When the homeless population in your area skews significantly mentally ill,
> this ceases to be mere "fear of people who are different".

I think that's the same thing applied to mental illness; people don't
understand mental illness and fear it. Why is someone who is depressed or
bipolar threatening? What do we really know? Does mental illness make people
more likely to commit crimes?

* It's the wrong question, because if there is any effect (and I don't know that there is), it probably depends on the illness and its severity.

* Mentally ill people commit crimes, but so do mentally healthy people - in fact I expect that 99% of crimes are committed by the latter.

* What is mental 'illness'? It's not a binary condition; it's a continuum. Also, many people living in homes and probably working at your office are mentally ill; would you trust them in your guest bedroom?

* Finally, homeless people (especially those who are mentally ill) are often the weakest in our community, often poorly fed and unable to care for themselves. Those are not the people to fear (fear strong, healthy, bold young men). If the homeless people were criminal and had intiative, they wouldn't be living on the street.

~~~
Kalium
I understand mental illness. Judging by your rhetoric, perhaps better than
you. I know full well how dangerous someone suffering hallucinations can be.
You'll have to forgive me for not wanting to welcome such a person into my
home.

Please, spare me your "Not everyone suffering mental illness is violent!"
rhetoric. I know that. It's neither a helpful nor useful point in this
context. I also know that some are, that a given homeless person is
disproportionately likely to be such a person compared to the general
population, and that there's no reliable way for a layman to mitigate this
risk other than keeping the person at a reasonable distance.

Please, just for a moment, stop and consider that _maybe_ I am not just some
terrified waif, shaking in my boots because someone said "OH TEH NOES! MENTAL
ILLNESS!". Perhaps some of us have real concerns about what you propose.
Perhaps some of us are aware that being homeless, mentally ill, or both
doesn't magically render a person incapable of offering significant violence,
despite your claim.

Also, try being less condescending about it. I'm (poorly) fighting the urge to
tell you to go do something anatomically unlikely because of all the silly
things you just wrote.

------
Kinnard
I wonder how we could get a hold of this actual dataset. Additionally I wonder
how it compares to vacancy rates/data in LA County

~~~
mayneack
This is the person to ask:
[https://twitter.com/abhinemani](https://twitter.com/abhinemani)

------
iamleppert
This is an explanation forwarded by my mother, who knows a thing or two about
scraping by to make ends meet:

Being poor sucks.

Yes, that's right: being poor. I'm talking about the constant stresses placed
upon a person that is working a minimum wage job, barely able to afford their
rent. Constant stress about money.

Now imagine for a minute I could tell you that stress is a choice. The
alternative, the very scary "homelessness", "on the streets" \--- is it really
much worse? Could it actually be less stressful?

I think what happens is some of these people become homeless and realize that
it isn't all that bad. For a subset of the population who can already get by
on not a lot, not having a home (and the stress that comes with it) must be
welcome. They become homeless and realize "I can do this, this could be my
life. Let's live in a tent."

And there you go, someone who has decided to become "chronically" homeless.

I'll have to say there is something to be said about releasing all the
conventional trappings of modern society: you no longer have to worry about
bills, responsibility. You get to be outdoors. Sure, there are other problems,
like where to find food and keep clean, and avoiding the police, but for some
that is better than competing in the rat race of life, at what is the very
hardest and poorest levels of society.

~~~
yardie
I have family that work for homeless shelters in NYC. Usually the ones he
works with are the fresh homeless. These are foster kids that age out of the
system, abused kids turned adults, and male spouses. The first 72 hours are
the most critical. After that they start to have a mental breakdown. Being
homeless becomes the new normal and they go feral. These are the homeless most
people think of. They can no longer function in society. They are antisocial,
unemployable, and have poor hygiene.

These homeless aren't living a hobo dream. They traded one form of stress for
another. Now instead of worrying about rent they have stress from lack of
sleep. The ones that choose to live in a tent because it is less stressful is
actually quite small group.

------
strathmeyer
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------
stefantalpalaru
> The latest official homeless count found 44,000 people living in county
> streets in a three-day period in January [...]

Sounds like most of those 13,000 newly homeless people are the same every
month - falling in and out of homelessness periodically.

> The group's analysis was based on records for 9 million county residents who
> received public assistance at any point between 2002 and 2010.

How can they have so many poor people when the total population of the county
was 9,818,605 in 2010 according to Wikipedia? Do they give "public assistance"
to rich people too?

~~~
civilian
This commenter's tone is flippant but he brings up a really good question! Why
do 9 mil people get benefits in a city of 10 million? I spent a few minutes
googling "la population churn" until I realized that sociologists use the more
polite term "turnover".

Between 1985 and 1990, the mean migration turnover rate was 35%.[1] And if you
look at the map, LA county is shaded the color of 41-65% turnover. Let's guess
50%.

So if we guess 50% turnover per 5 years still applies between 2002 and 2010,
then it's reasonable that 15million - 20million people have lived in LA county
during that time period. Given that 49% of the US population get government
benefits [2], this checks out. Especially since LA county has a higher poverty
rate than the rest of the country. [3]

[1] Migration Turnover Rates in United States Counties [2006]
[http://digitalcommons.usu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=13...](http://digitalcommons.usu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1327&context=eri)

[2] Census: 49% of Americans Get Gov’t Benefits; 82M in Households on Medicaid
[http://cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-
jeffrey/census-49-...](http://cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-
jeffrey/census-49-americans-get-gov-t-benefits-82m-households-medicaid)

[3] L.A. County leads California in poverty rate, new analysis shows
[http://articles.latimes.com/2013/sep/30/local/la-me-
poverty-...](http://articles.latimes.com/2013/sep/30/local/la-me-
poverty-20131001)

~~~
differentView
>Given that 49% of the US population get government benefits [2], this checks
out.

>[2] Census: 49% of Americans Get Gov’t Benefits; 82M in Households on
Medicaid [http://cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-
jeffrey/census-49-...](http://cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-
jeffrey/census-49-americans-get-gov-t-benefits-82m-households-medicaid)

According to that page, they included Social Security (49.9 million people)
and unemployment (5.1 million people) as government benefits.

------
kisstheblade
If I extrapolate that (44000 mentioned in another post) to the size of my
country we should have some 20000 homeless people here... Jeez, the US calls
itself the "richest country in the world"....

We have practically no homeless people, maybe a couple of hundred who don't
want the help.

How is it that you can't take care of the less fortunate even though you have
money to by all the crap in thew world? Sorry for being a harsh, smug, nordic
country resident, but sometimes the wonderland of the US does seem a little
cold.

~~~
rconti
Does the US call itself the "richest country in the world" more frequently
than anyone else does? Which country do you reside in, incidentally?

You'll also find people here claim the homeless "don't want help." It doesn't
mean they're correct in their assessment.

Speaking of a little cold, in some places being homeless is more feasible than
others. LA is certainly one of those places.

It also depends on your standards. I'm not saying we don't have a huge
homeless problem -- we absolutely do. I live in the San Francisco Bay Area,
home to some of the most expensive housing in the world, and there are many
homeless here (or at least in SF proper).

It also depends on who you consider a person. When I was living in France, I
once remarked that I was surprised that there were so many homeless people,
and that it seemed like there were almost as many as my hometown. The reply
was "oh, no, they're not homeless, they're Roma."

