
China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days - sagitariusrex
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2017/09/28/0401000000AEN20170928012000315.html
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gypsy_boots
This makes me nervous and I fear that Kim Jung Un will have to do something
big in order to save face. I hope we make him feel that he has a non-violent
way to posture for his people as that's really what this is all about:
posturing.

~~~
thevardanian
Honestly I don't get this sentiment. NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The NK
problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. This goes beyond mere
saving face, or diplomacy. This is simply about maintaining and expanding
power. That is sometimes you need to be confrontational. Sometimes you need to
stop being Chamberlain, and start being Churchill. Preferably before it's too
late.

What else is their development of nuclear arms about? NK is a signatory of the
NPT. They broke their promise. They've broken their promise multiple times.
What they're looking for isn't a resolution to their situation, if anything
they want to prolong it as long as possible. What they actually want is to
win, and emerge "victorious" in the face of US "oppression".

Personally I think while China's interests are in maintaining a peaceful
region, we must be wary of the relationship between NK and China. As there is
a possibility of another game being played. Perhaps China wants to annex NK.

~~~
jasonwatkinspdx
> NK isn't some rationalistic actor.

The way they're behaving is quite rational. They looked at what happened to
Gaddafi and Saddam, as well as how the new administration is seeking to tear
down the Iran deal, and came to the conclusion that the US/West could not be
trusted to honor a nuclear disarment deal long term.

This means a credible nuclear deterrent is the only way to ensure the regime's
survival.

Lest people think I'm engaging in apologetics, what they're doing to keep in
power is reprehensible. But they're not mad men looking for a symbolic "win"
at the cost of suicide.

~~~
AnimalMuppet
> They looked at what happened to Gaddafi and Saddam, as well as how the new
> administration is seeking to tear down the Iran deal, and came to the
> conclusion that the US/West could not be trusted to honor a nuclear
> disarment deal long term.

I believe that NK was untrustworthy long before the events you cite. They
didn't reach a rational conclusion. They always were belligerant,
untrustworthy, lying bullies.

~~~
chickenfries
> They always were belligerant, untrustworthy, lying bullies.

And US policy towards Korea has been something else?

~~~
krapp
South Korea seems to be doing just fine, and the US seems to be honest about
the contempt with which it views the North Korean regime, so I don't really
see the purpose of the equivocation you're trying to set, here.

~~~
chickenfries
I'm not trying to equivocate I'm trying to point out the a-historicism of
throwing our hands in the air and saying "well I guess there's just no
reasoning with them!"

The reason our diplomatic options are so poor now is because we have
constantly failed to deliver our end of the bargain when it comes to
nonproliferation in North Korea, see the Agreed Framework. Saying that they're
"just crazy bullies" has always been a stupid over simplification that gets us
nowhere closer to not blowing each other up.

> and the US seems to be honest about the contempt with which it views the
> North Korean regime

And DPRK is not? What are you even talking about? The DPRK literally uses
inflammatory rhetoric about the USA all the time.

------
markwaldron
Related BBC article with more information: www.bbc.com/news/world-
asia-41431057

~~~
athenot
Thanks, this has a bit more substance to it than the original link.

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cromwellian
Will it really be enforceable though? It seems relatively easy for firms in
China to change names, create shells, etc

If China can't effectively police their own fly-by-night domestic firms from
doing by things like selling industrial salts as fake table salt, how likely
is it they'll be able to shut down NK oriented firms, or even be aggressively
inclined to investigate and enforce this order? That is, perhaps this is
mostly for show to comply on paper with UN resolutions.

~~~
girzel
The enforcement of regulations in China is frighteningly efficient and
effective, _while the issue at hand is foremost in the minds of leaders_. The
government insists on retaining personal control over the country, and weakens
the country's autonomous systems, which means it must spend some of a limited
amount of attention to address any given issue. The moment the Eye of Sauron
turns to look at a particular problem, everything immediately falls into
order. The moment it turns away to something else, everyone gets up to their
old shenanigans. It's the trade-off of retaining personal control.

In this case, these NK firms will certainly be a topic of focus, and likely
remain so for quite a while.

~~~
nrp
On getting back to their old shenanigans, this is such a deeply rooted concept
in China that it inspired a phrase that has remained in common use for 700
years. "Heaven is high and the emperor is far away"
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tian_gao,_Huangdi_yuan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tian_gao,_Huangdi_yuan)

~~~
SimbaOnSteroids
This concept was also expressed in that Whitey Bulgar movie, Black Mass.

>Remember Johnny, if no one sees it, its like it never even happened.

------
xir78
It seems like KJU needs an enemy to stay in power to justify his rule, so he
can’t back down on his nuclear program. But now the options are narrowing even
more for him, and if he abdicated it doesn’t have anywhere to go. So he may
just force a war...

~~~
MBCook
In any war he’d be destroyed.

NK has to balance on the knife edge between being threatening enough to get
concessions but not so much other countries give up and ignore them (or level
them).

KJU doesn’t seem to know how to walk that line, and didn’t have enough time to
learn it from his father.

I’d say ‘we’re getting close to the end’ but no one who has ever made that
prediction has been right. It’s too unique (especially with Trump now) to be
able to get a good guess.

~~~
ihsw2
War? Please describe a scenario where Seoul doesn't get obliterated in the
first 30 minutes of fireworks starting.

If the DPRK doesn't achieve victory within 72 hours then yes of course they
will be flattened, but nonetheless a DPRK victory is within the realm of
possibility. Seoul may be reduced to a smoking heap, 20M dead and 10M having
emigrated, and it will be a Pyrrhic victory, but it could be a victory
nonetheless.

~~~
dingaling
Most North Korean artillery can't reach beyond the northern suburbs of Seoul.

It would cause mass casualties but by no means would the metropolis be
'obliterated'. There certainly wouldn't be 20 million dead unless everyone
within the Greater Seoul area rushed north and threw themselves into the
beaten-zone.

Assuming, of course, that the artillery troops follow their orders to fire.

~~~
pdelbarba
I have a hard time believing that the artillery would ever get the chance.
There's maybe ten square miles where they could place artillery to
successfully bombard Seoul. The entire area could easily be destroyed or
remotely turned into a minefield by a cruise missile salvo or judicious
application of artillery fire from a handful of batteries. I can't imagine
there aren't plans in place to handle this concern very rapidly should
tensions rise to that point.

Even assuming that there isn't a concentrated effort to destroy these
emplacements quickly, it seems the amount of damage they could cause would be
fairly limited by operational constraints[1]

[1] [http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/could-north-
korea-...](http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/could-north-korea-
annihilate-seoul-its-artillery-20345?page=2)

~~~
ckozlowski
There are plans, yes. Lots of artillery, but it's aging, and as was pointed
out earlier, the number of pieces they possess that can actually reach Seoul
(the 203mm Koksan) is not very great.

As soon as they open fire, the counter-battery game begins. You can be sure
the allies have photographed and analyzed every strip of dirt along the DMZ,
looking for prepared positions so they can anticipate where the guns are and
where they'd move to after a salvo. They'd be tracking the rounds as they come
in and plotting where it originated from. 72 hours is a good estimate for how
long that artillery battle would last; same estimate I've seen elsewhere.

But the concern of casualties are not necessarily from shells impacting, but
the panic and disruption in order that comes from it. NK can cause enormous
hardship just by flinging a few shells. They can hide many of their batteries
and string out the battle by revealing pieces on day 3, 4, etc,. Even if they
get destroyed, and even if they only get a few shells off, you'll have a news
report saying shells are still falling on Seoul, and it will be a tremendous
morale hit.

But the window is closing on how well the NK artillery will continue to be a
credible threat, hence the rush for nuclear weapons.

~~~
myrandomcomment
There would be no day 3 or 4. The US knowns in detail every inch of the DMZ
and the NK side. The US counter-battery is the best in the world. Every NK gun
that fires would be bracket and destroyed in the 1st 30 minutes. After they
are gone any other mapped location would be hit for good measure. The ROK Army
and the US Army would start to roll right over the DMZ in the 1st hour. The
Air Force and Army attack helicopters would wreck any armor the NK have very
very quickly. The NK Army around the DMZ will collapse in the 1st day.

The only real issue we would have to worry about is NK using a nuke on Seoul
or Tokyo. That is the major issue and it is why NK will never give up on their
weapons. It is the only effect threat they have.

The US planners have sorted out the conventional war issues a long time ago.
It is figuring out how to be 100% sure to remove the Nukes from the equation
that has stopped us from just stepping on Kim like a roach and he knows that.
That is the reason for the Nukes.

~~~
ckozlowski
I'd sure like to believe you're right. While I have every reason to believe
the allies would prevail, I'm also wary of overly optimistic timelines.

Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

~~~
myrandomcomment
I hope so too. For the most part people do not understand just how over
powered the US military is compared to the rest of the world. The worlds
largest Air Force is the USAF, the world 2nd largest Air Forces the US Army.

The surgical dismantling of the air defenses around Baghdad in the 1st gulf
war was a complete and udder-shock to the Russians. It was the 3rd largest and
sophistcated in the world. We removed it in 48 hours for almost no loss. That
was with 1980 tech where you needed someone to hold the lasers on target.

We could have ended the 2nd Iraq war and Afganistain in a few months if the
military was under the same rules of engagement as WW2. However the
destruction and civilian death would be appalling. If there is a war started
by NK it is very likely the military would not have the constrains placed on
it like Iraq or Afganistain. It would most likely look like WW2. Think
Dresden.

The job of the military is to kill people and break things. When they are told
to win without the limits we place on them now it would be terrifying.

PS. I know people will ask. Let’s say you are in a city and there are baddies
in a building shooting at you. Right now because of constrains to civilian
damage, you get the fun job of attacking the location to clear them out with
your squad. It sucks and someone on your team is likely to get wounded. If the
limits are removed, you call in a fire mission, building is removed from
planet, move on to next one. That is what a war with NK would look like. Are
we evil for doing this? I am not sure. I believe that fighting this way will
end a conflict much quicker over all and in the long term be better for all
those involved.

------
devdoomari
I've been wary about the Chinese gov's honesty after the economic reparations
after THAAD deployment in Korea. (NK made nukes, so US deployed THAAD to
defend against NK nukes, and PRC gov. got angry for some defense-only
'weapon')

Moreover, the Chinese gov. has been sending NK refugees back to NK, even
though it knows those people won't end well.

But anyway, +1 for Chinese gov. on this stance - I guess this might be a start
for a morally better China, a real Big Man country.

~~~
sangnoir
> NK nukes, and PRC gov. got angry for some defense-only 'weapon'

This "defense-only" weapon upsets the decade-old nuclear balance of M.A.D.
because the THAAD radar is sensitivity and location weaken China's nuclear
retaliatory ability.

~~~
devdoomari
then the Chinese gov. should have forced NK to give up its nukes in the first
place. It can, but didn't, so US and Korea have the reason to deploy THAAD.

Chinese gov. should explain why it let NK have nukes before blaming 'power
balance'

------
Veelox
Question, will this have a noticeable impact on the N.K. economy or is it more
of an inconvenience?

~~~
bgun
I don't know about the economy at large, but this will certainly be more than
an inconvenience to many of the Kim family's wealthy and influential friends.

~~~
adanto6840
This is borderline off-topic, maybe a bit naive even, but I can't help but ask
as I'm genuinely curious and don't know.

What do the 'wealthy' look like in NK? Is there an upper class of non-
relatives and, if so, via what means -- government ties (business or
personal)? What do they do on a daily basis, for work, fun, etc? It just seems
to isolated, and perhaps that's my internet adoration speaking -- but is there
a class of wealth in NK, what does it look like, how does it come to be?

And I'm honestly curious: if there is a wealthy class, what do they do for
fun/enjoyment/entertainment purposes -- and how will this impact that?

~~~
no1youknowz
I was watching a portion of Michael Malice with Joe Rogan[0]. Michael wrote
"Dear Reader: The Unauthorized Autobiography of Kim Jong Il". He actually
mentions the upper class in NK.

It's over 2 and a half hours long, but I like Rogan's interviews they go by
pretty fast.

[0]:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5B_idqiEoUE](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5B_idqiEoUE)

------
JustSomeNobody
Most of his behavior is junk behavior and can be ignored. Obviously, if he
does something harmful, that should not be ignored, but most everything else
can and should be. Give him no response that he can use to put in front of his
people; Nothing he can use to spin to show how powerful he is. Ignore it. Take
the control away from him.

But always keep an eye out for him doing something even remotely good and
praise him for that. Send over food or whatever else his country may need.
Reward the behavior you want to see. Ignore the behavior you don't.

------
agumonkey
Not long ago I was shown this:

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyqUw0WYwoc](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyqUw0WYwoc)

Interview of 2 ex-NorthKorean. It's informative (not much pathos or
sensationalism even considering the context)

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marcoperaza
I won't believe that China is actually serious about reining in North Korea
until they stop all imports from North Korea.

------
longcheng
Historically Korea had been a loyal vassal state of China for thousands of
year. China had defended Korea against various barbarians from Mongolia
plateau, Japan(multiple times) and America more recently.

The reason NK still exists is not USA's mercy or NK's nuke, it's because it's
neighboring with China & Russia. Same thing applies to Vietnam.

