
Seeing Future in Fuel Cells, Toyota Ends Tesla Deal - jbae29
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/13/business/energy-environment/seeing-future-in-fuel-cells-toyota-ends-tesla-deal.html?hpw&rref=automobiles&_r=0
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revelation
The RAV4 ev is a pure compliance car. It's only sold in California, it's a 3rd
party drivetrain and battery bolted onto the frame for a gas guzzler SUV.

So of course it's a terrible product. The only thing it excels at is getting
Toyota enough ZEV credits. They recently changed the credit scheme, so now
Toyota is switching to that:

[http://insideevs.com/carb-zev-program-changes-tesla-takes-
la...](http://insideevs.com/carb-zev-program-changes-tesla-takes-largest-hit/)

~~~
makomk
Interesting - if I'm reading that correctly, Tesla's battery-swap technology
substantially boosted the amount of ZEV credits they obtained and could resell
by allowing them to claim "fast recharging", despite the facilities to
actually swap batteries never actually being available to customers.

~~~
revelation
Yes, but to get the extra credits they only had to demonstrate battery swap
with a bunch of technicians. The large automated demo they did later on wasn't
for the ZEV credits.

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outworlder
So, instead of using the ubiquitous power grid, we'll need:

\- Hydrogen "manufacturing". Guess where most of it come from? Fossil fuels.
If you use water, you require a lot of energy input. Actually, in either case
you need energy input, so hydrogen is more like a battery, not an energy
source.

\- Hydrogen distribution/storage. At the refinery, between that and the 'gas'
stations, etc. Not all containers are suitable for that (hydrogen is quite
difficult to store) and no matter if liquid or gas, the tanks need to be much
bigger than a comparable gasoline tank (by energy).

\- Actually using the hydrogen. You are using fuel cells to generate
electricity, which will power electric engines. Why not skip the middle man?
You are using a much more complicated battery, really.

And that just to make the 'charging' faster? How long would it take to cover a
country the size of the US with hydrogen stations? I'd put all that
infrastructure money on battery research.

This is just Toyota giving up on EVs completely. They just don't want to say
it outright. Green companies and all that.

~~~
sliverstorm
What about range? Hydrogen might be less energy dense than gasoline, but what
about compared to batteries?

Range is the #1 crippling factor for EVs to most people I talk to.

~~~
outworlder
Range is a valid concern, but hydrogen has poor energy density per volume (if
compressed).

If you want compact hydrogen, hydrocarbons are your best bet.

~~~
drited
Hydrogen is better than batteries in this respect though, so when comparing
zero emission options it still appears to be a good bet for Toyota, if it can
be implemented on a large scale.

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_Adam
This is really surprising. What are they thinking? Hydrogen fuel cells STILL
have not been proven to be a viable power source for cars. Electricity has
been validated time and time again - even before Tesla, there was the EV1. And
now the technology is really starting to scale in production volume and
performance, along with the infrastructure.

Even if they can make a hydrogen vehicle with equal, or even slightly greater
performance than an electric of the same cost, then they still need to solve
the problem of the hydrogen infrastructure. That's really hard. You can
generate it on site, but the equipment to do so is expensive and complex.

I think Toyota just doesn't want to compete with Tesla.

~~~
threeseed
> I think Toyota just doesn't want to compete with Tesla.

Yes. I am sure Toyota is just terrified by a company that is haemorrhaging
money and only sells in a few countries.

~~~
outworlder
Is it? Source?

~~~
greglindahl
Just like politics, you can read anything you want into Tesla's financials.
They make a 25% margin building cars, which is excellent. They are a small car
company expanding their factory and designing a new model, which means they
lose money.

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hnnewguy
First we got to hear the ICE proponents spreading FUD about Electric Vehicles,
now we'll get to hear Electric Vehicle proponents spreading FUD about fuel
cells.

~~~
dublinben
Fuel cell vehicles have never made any sense. It's still being turned into
electricity anyway, so it's still an electric vehicle. There happens to
already be a distribution infrastructure for electricity almost everywhere.
The same can't be said for hydrogen.

According to the US Department of Energy, there are _eleven_ public hydrogen
stations in the US, almost all in Los Angeles. There are more compressed
natural gas stations in my state alone.

~~~
eshvk
> Fuel cell vehicles have never made any sense.

The only reason for me to get an Electric Vehicle is the green factor. If
instead of my car polluting the environment, there is an increase in say coal
factories, not sure how that helps the environment. So there is a need for
fuel cells.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Electric vehicles are more efficient well to wheel than gas engines, even if
powered by coal plants.

Do you want to manage the emissions from one generation source? Or 100K? Also,
as the electrical grid becomes more clean, EVs become cleaner. Not so with ICE
vehicles.

~~~
stonemetal
Actually a study from 2012 shows battery backed EVs getting 34 mpg "on the
nation’s dirtiest grid". A good diesel can do much better than that. It isn't
so cut and dried as you make it sound.

~~~
toomuchtodo
The share of wind and solar increases every year:
[http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec7_5.pdf](http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec7_5.pdf)

A diesel vehicle has a service life of at least 200K miles; assuming 12K/miles
a year, you're looking at ~16 years of burning petrol.

How much cleaner is the electric grid going to be over the next 16 years as
coal plants are shut down due to being unable to meet new emissions
guidelines? Electric vehicles future proof the energy required for mobility.

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protomyth
I would love to hear what the tipping point was for fuel cells. I suspect
Toyota doesn't believe that battery technology will get the point that
recharging gets close to normal gas station stops where hydrogen might.

Last I heard Hydrogen was still problematic in winter cold just like
batteries.

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cLeEOGPw
Electric car with battery pros:

* Can deliver full power instantly

* Does not produce CO2 at time of energy release (clean cities)

* Lesser moving parts

Electric car with battery cons:

* Range too small with current designs

* No charging stations (infrastructure problem)

* Battery needs to be replaced every several years

* Requires lithium, which reserves are very limited on earth

* Carbon tube based battery doesn't seem to be reality any time soon

Hydrogen on the other hand doesn't require any rare elements and also doesn't
pollute environment at the time of energy release.

Only downsides are it is more difficult to store as of now? How is it
different from liquid natural gas tanks that are already widely used? I've
never heard of any car exploding because of gas. What is the problem with
hydrogen then?

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tbrownaw
_Does not produce CO2 at time of energy release (clean cities)_

1\. Hydrogen (as opposed to (L|C)NG / gasoline / other hydrocarbons) wouldn't
either.

2\. I don't think the _where_ matters for CO2? Sure it's supposed to melt the
ice caps and put us all underwater, but I don't think there are any _local_
effects?

~~~
greglindahl
The reason California has all these ZEV (zero emission vehicle) regulations is
because of smog. It's better to burn stuff at a power plant than on a highway
in the middle of LA or the Bay Area. (And you're right, CO2 isn't the issue,
it's the other stuff.)

In this respect, batteries and fuel cells are similar.

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wil421
Electric cars IMHO are missing the point, which is to get off fossil fuels.
When you switch to an electric vehicle you are just shifting from Gas to Coal.
The US still relies heavily on fossil fuels to power the grid.

My question has always been: Does shifting from gas to depending on the
electrical grid actually help? Or are we just smoking cigars (or e-cigs)
instead of cigarettes?

Also, what is the downside to collecting Hydrogen?

~~~
outworlder
> Electric cars IMHO are missing the point, which is to get off fossil fuels.
> When you switch to an electric vehicle you are just shifting from Gas to
> Coal. The US still relies heavily on fossil fuels to power the grid.

Yes, because the whole world has the same reliance on fossil fuels as the US.
Homework: what's quicker to replace? A few power stations, or the whole
vehicle fleet? Also notice that electric engines are way more efficient than
gas engines.

> My question has always been: Does shifting from gas to depending on the
> electrical grid actually help? Or are we just smoking cigars (or e-cigs)
> instead of cigarettes?

Long or short term? Electrical vehicles do not care where the power comes
from. If you are that worried, power your EV yourself at home with
solar/wind/whatever power.

> Also, what is the downside to collecting Hydrogen?

If it is from fossil fuels, it is kinda obvious. It is apparently possible to
sequester CO2 from the process of extracting hydrogen from natural gas, but I
have no idea if it is even required by regulations, or economically viable.

If it is from water electrolysis, then you'll be using the same fossil fuel
power plants to split water.

Do not forget that electric cars have WAY less parts (the simplest conceptual
car is a battery and engine) and require much less environmentally unfriendly
stuff, such as lubricants, additives, etc.

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bryanlarsen
"Homework: what's quicker to replace? A few power stations, or the whole
vehicle fleet?"

average vehicle age in the US is 11.4 years.[1]

average power plant age in the US is over 30 years.[2]

1:
[http://www.autonews.com/article/20130806/RETAIL/130809922/av...](http://www.autonews.com/article/20130806/RETAIL/130809922/average-
age-of-u.s.-car-light-truck-on-road-hits-record-11.4-years)

2: [http://qz.com/61423/coal-fired-power-plants-near-
retirement/](http://qz.com/61423/coal-fired-power-plants-near-retirement/)

~~~
outworlder
Thanks for the data.

More number crunching is required however. See, we stopped producing all
gasoline vehicles today, based on your source, it would take 11.4 years in
average for the fleet to be replaced, so it would be an obvious win.

But we are not doing that. As this whole EV vehicle discussion proves, it is
very difficult to replace the fleet. And the infrastructure.

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NorthGuy1
Honda has been saying the same thing for years and has yet to produce a
product. It's cool tech but right now it's just vapourware.

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mrfusion
Just curious. Instead of having to build a hydrogen infrastructure couldn't we
use electricity to run the fuel cells in reverse to turn water into h20?

I saw it at a science fair once.

~~~
mfwarren
Right, so you can use electricity to make h2 at less than 100% efficiency then
lay pipes all around the city to move the h2 to the stations, or build giant
trucks that can transport the h2 on the roads (and pay drivers). On the other
hand you can transport the electricity directly into the car using copper
wires that are already in place

~~~
mrfusion
No, I mean connect your fuel cell car to a hose, and an electrical outlet at
the end of the day, and run the fuel cell in reverse to regenerate the H2.

I saw it in a science fair, they could switch directions of the fuel cell to
go either way.

