
Up to 17 F-22 Raptors may have been damaged or destroyed by Hurricane Michael - petethomas
https://twitter.com/nktpnd/status/1051607249209253888
======
obblekk
This feels like one of those events that historians will look back upon as a
signal of the decline of the American Empire that went unnoticed.

Yes, all the reasons listed in the article make sense. These reasons are the
proximate cause for why the aircraft could not be saved. However, what we’re
effectively saying is that we as a society have a defense system incapable of
prioritizing a few million dollars in hangar cost to protect a few hundred
million dollars in aircraft cost (think about how many weather events can be
expected to happen over the 50yr life of the F22).

When the military industrial complex starts making such poor resource
allocation decisions, something has gone horribly wrong. We’re just too afraid
to admit it.

~~~
obblekk
Not to mention, what’s the true capacity of the US defense network if there’s
a series of bad weather events? What happens if a hurricane hits the east
coast shortly after a major earthquake hits the west coast?

Are we training our enemies on our non-nuclear weak points?

~~~
rangibaby
> Are we training our enemies on our non-nuclear weak points?

ATM there is no nation in the world with the ability to launch a conventional
invasion of the USA, let alone have a chance of succeeding

------
LaMarseillaise
Since a lot of the comments on this are basically "Why weren't they flown
away?"

Many of the aircraft were flown away:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGHKLfXTwvc](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGHKLfXTwvc)

The aircraft that remained were likely unable to be evacuated:
[http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/24204/setting-the-
recor...](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/24204/setting-the-record-
straight-on-why-fighter-jets-cant-all-simply-fly-away-to-escape-storms)

~~~
scottLobster
Yeah, an F-22 isn't a Toyota Camry. Some quick googling shows they require 12
maintenance man-hours for every hour of flight time. Given how quickly Michael
ramped up, I wouldn't be surprised if those planes were simply caught in an
unflyable state.

------
ridgeguy
Given a 2009 flyaway cost of $150 million each [1], 17 F-22s lost is about $3B
in todays dollars. Seems like it's worth hardening Tyndall's buildings or
scrapping the base and moving inland.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-22_Raptor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-22_Raptor)

~~~
pasbesoin
All the talk about flying them away, or not. You're storing billions in
hardware next to a beach in hurricane country. Maybe drop 10 million -- hell,
even 100 million -- for an elevated bunker rated to survive the strongest
possible storm?

Maybe cancel a few band practices -- or, a dumb-ass DC parade -- to pay for
it.

The bunker doesn't have to be large enough to be a general working space. Just
a safe, to toss the crown jewels in, when warranted. (And elevated, because
storm surge, if that's a possible factor.)

~~~
cma
Builders of cheap, strong bunkers can't hire expensive lobbyists. And Lockheed
definitely isn't going to lobby for it.

------
gravy
Also worth reading (and is also included in the tweet chain) before any
discussions on moving them.

[http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/24204/setting-the-
recor...](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/24204/setting-the-record-
straight-on-why-fighter-jets-cant-all-simply-fly-away-to-escape-storms)

------
JamesCoyne
The thread goes on for a bit before the author says:

Fair. Technically correct would be 9% of Raptor airframes in the USAF
inventory. Appreciate the correction.

The caveat is that the damaged airframes could be trainers, as many combat
ready jets were moved prior to the storm.

------
zaroth
Any before/after pictures of the hanger? I guess not due to the sensitivity of
the intelligence, but hard to believe hangers holding a few billion of jets
weren’t fortified to withstand anything short of a nuclear blast.

~~~
pcurve
here is before. [http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/21133/florida-air-
base-...](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/21133/florida-air-base-hangar-
turns-into-a-raptors-nest-as-f-22s-take-refuge-from-alberto)

packed in pretty good.

AFter
[https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpRVHdvVAAADoHd.jpg:large](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpRVHdvVAAADoHd.jpg:large)

I see couple of F16 with orange marking, but in top left corner, there is F22
tail

~~~
zaroth
Thank you!

Wow, that hanger was completely destroyed. Unbelievably destructive storm.
Those planes are toast.

------
dba7dba
Not the first time this sort of thing happened.

[http://www.tailsthroughtime.com/2010/06/prior-to-arrival-
of-...](http://www.tailsthroughtime.com/2010/06/prior-to-arrival-of-
boeing-b-52.html)

The 1952 Carswell AFB Tornado

In 1952, 2/3 of the B-36 bomber force of USA knocked out in less than 30
minutes by tornados. And I'm pretty sure B-36 was the only strategic nuclear
weapon delivery system at the time, as this was before nuclear powered
submarines or ICBMs.

~~~
captain_perl
The B-29 was the first nuclear strategic bomber. They were decommissioned in
1960.

~~~
dingaling
The B-29 wasn't strategic in terms of Cold War capability against the USSR, in
fact SAC had downgraded it to 'medium bomber' in classification.

SAC did modify a few dozen with inflight refueling as the B-29MR but that
required stripping off nearly all defensive armament and giving over half of
the bomb capacity to fuel tanks. And even then the missions would be one-way:
[http://b-29.org/charlie/charlie1.html](http://b-29.org/charlie/charlie1.html)

The developed B-50 was semi-strategic and had inflight refuelling capability
from the outset.

------
blondie9x
This is one of the reasons The Pentagon needs to keep their eyes on climate
change. The politicization of the science needs to stop.

I am also surprised The Air-force did not move the entirety of the fleet as it
normally does when extreme weather is imminent.

~~~
sremani
If you have read down the twitter thread you would have perfectly found an
article explaining the reasons..

[http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/24204/setting-the-
recor...](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/24204/setting-the-record-
straight-on-why-fighter-jets-cant-all-simply-fly-away-to-escape-storms)

~~~
justin66
Does that author have any sort of military background, or is he just a
blogger?

~~~
nradov
Tyler Rogoway is a well known defense journalist and has been covering this
stuff for years. He's not just a blogger.

~~~
justin66
I tried to find a CV for him, to no avail. I am pretty unimpressed with the
tone of his comments (you fools just don't understand!).

~~~
nradov
I might take a snippy tone myself if ignorant people kept sending me the same
stupid suggestions and questions. Most of his articles are somewhat "inside
baseball" and assume that the reader has a certain baseline knowledge of
policy and technology rather than explaining every little thing.

~~~
justin66
> I might take a snippy tone myself if ignorant people kept sending me the
> same stupid suggestions and questions.

And in that hypothetical, I guess I'd point out that if you are affected by
such things, having a strong Twitter presence and making your web presence a
sub-blog on an automotive website might be the wrong way to go about things.

> Most of his articles are somewhat "inside baseball" and assume that the
> reader has a certain baseline knowledge of policy and technology rather than
> explaining every little thing.

I didn't exactly feel like I was reading Aviation Week or something when I
took a peek at his stuff. Hence my original question.

------
cozzyd
Does seem like a bad idea to have an air force base right on the coast.

~~~
CodeWriter23
The best idea is to have a geographically- and meterologically-diverse network
of bases, with enough capacity to shift your flyable assets in case of
emergency. Which is basically what we have. And you do want bases as close to
your borders as possible to gain the initiative when needed.

The failure here is the F-22 replacement parts supply chain, which is likely
exacerbated by cancelling the program after purchasing about half of the
promised aircraft.

------
mikeash
I’d have thought that military aircraft hangars could withstand a hurricane.
They are supposed to serve in times of war, after all. I’d think they’d be
built to survive a somewhat near miss from a nuke.

