
Continued G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storming Observed - ashitlerferad
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/update-continued-g4-severe-geomagnetic-storming-observed
======
colanderman
Meaning of G4: [http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-
explanation](http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation)

"Power systems: Possible widespread voltage control problems and some
protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid.

Spacecraft operations: May experience surface charging and tracking problems,
corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems: Induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio
propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency
radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and
northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.)."

Apparently there are 100 of these per 11-year solar cycle.

~~~
meseznik
_Apparently there are 100 of these per 11-year solar cycle._

Seems that there are much more than 100 flares each cycle:
[https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/hessidata/dbase/hessi_flare_l...](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/hessidata/dbase/hessi_flare_list.txt)

It also seems that flares above X2.2 are quite rare. There have been only 10
of those since 2008:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_24#Events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_24#Events)

The latest flare, measured at X9.3 is VERY rare:
[https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-
activity/top-50-so...](https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-
activity/top-50-solar-flares)

I wouldn't downplay this

~~~
colanderman
G4 geomagnetic storms, not flares.

------
Animats
Checking the PJM power grid's alerts:

 _Warning: A Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning has been issued for 01:47 on
09.08.2017 through 17:00 on 09.08.2017 . A GMD warning of K7 or greater is in
effect for this period. Additional Comments: SpaceWeatherPredictionCenter
Extended original Warning of GMD Intensity of K7 or greater until 9 /8/17
21:00 UTC (17:00 EDT)._

 _Warning: A Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning has been issued for 19:21 on
09.07.2017 through 02:00 on 09.08.2017 . A GMD warning of K7 or greater or
greater is in effect for this period._

These are just warnings. No alarms or actions yet.

The effect of these events on the power grid is to induce DC currents between
grounded points far apart. This reduces the capacity of some transformers by
causing partial saturation. PJM monitors those currents at some substations,
and will take action if transformers start to saturate. There are routine
switching procedures for this.

For long-distance DC lines, it's a win; the system can use the power.

~~~
mrguyorama
How common are long-distance DC lines and what are they used for?

My understanding is that the vast majority of power infrastructure is AC, and
long distances are using High Voltage AC lines

~~~
detaro
For undersea connections, the water around it means the line has a lot higher
capacitance. An AC link has to load/unload that capacity all the time and
looses energy to it, a DC link doesn't.

Similar effects happen with normal power lines as well, so it also has
benefits on long-distance connections on land. Since you need conversion
equipment on all ends, it's typically used only for point-to-point links, not
for lines with branches in between - an example might be connection hydro
plants in the wilderness somewhere to more populated areas.

For links between non-synchronized networks, since conversion is needed
anyways to match between them.

Wikipedia: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-
voltage_direct_current](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-
voltage_direct_current) and
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_HVDC_projects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_HVDC_projects)

~~~
rdtsc
From that wiki link "Xinjiang - Anhui (China)" line is 1100kV, 10GW power!
That's impressive.

------
Sharlin
65°N 26°E last night:
[http://www.taivaanvahti.fi/observations/show/66829](http://www.taivaanvahti.fi/observations/show/66829)

I live at 61°30'N or so and there could have been a great show around these
parts as well but of course it had to be completely overcast last night. And
will most likely be the next couple of nights as well. Frustrating.

------
japhyr
I was going to ask if anyone knows whether these storms affect the accuracy of
GPS systems. Then I found this:

> In calm conditions, single frequency GPS systems can provide position
> information with an accuracy of a meter or less. During a severe space
> weather storm, these errors can increase to tens of meters or more. Dual
> frequency GPS systems can provide position information accurate to a few
> centimeters. In this case the two different GPS signals are used to better
> characterize the ionosphere and remove its impact on the position
> calculation. But when the ionosphere becomes highly disturbed, the GPS
> receiver cannot lock on the satellite signal and position information
> becomes inaccurate. [0]

I'm going to try to figure out whether the navigation system on my boat has a
dual frequency system or not. I'd hate to be "tens of meters" off when trying
to navigate between submerged rocks, and there are lots of submerged rocks
around here.

If anyone wants to share anything more about how these events affect the
accuracy of GPS systems, I'd love to hear it.

[0] - [http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/space-weather-and-gps-
syste...](http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/space-weather-and-gps-systems)

~~~
dscpls
Nice resource, thanks!

Note that this is exactly why they teach you not to rely on your gps for
navigation between rocks. You should be using sightings, log and compass. And
that's why you dont leave anchorage in fog.

------
olivermarks
Does anyone have any thoughts on any relationships between the recent solar
flares and magnetic storms and the hurricanes and Mexican earthquake? Is this
coincidence or does major space weather events result in major earth weather?
[https://www.space.com/38057-sun-unleashes-decades-
strongest-...](https://www.space.com/38057-sun-unleashes-decades-strongest-
solar-flare.html)

~~~
delegate
There's also the eclipse preceding these events.

Of course there are relationships, I just don't think most of us (scientists
or scientifically inclined) know how to see them, since some of the links are
not in the 'rational' space.

Shamans still have better answers than scientists to these kinds of questions,
but I don't think that most people want to hear the answers.

Either way something extraordinary is taking place, hopefully it will lead to
something positive in the end.

~~~
jacquesm
What a load of crock.

Eclipses have nothing whatsoever to do with solar flares, Shamans are con men
and have no answers to anything relevant that scientists could not answer
better and most people do not want to hear the answers any more than they want
to hear other random bullshit.

If the links are not in rational space they do not exist, period.

~~~
delegate
Turns out, eclipses have everything to do with solar flares and every other
phenomena you observe: You.

All of these things happen to _you_. We've been trained to look at reality as
something 'out there', but truth is that reality happens inside your
consciousness and it's unclear where mind ends and 'reality' starts. It's
unclear if there's anything _but_ consciousness (note that the 'brain' might
also be a construct of consciousness).

Shamans - not the con men - devote their life to studying and sharing the
relationship between consciousness, mind, nature/universe, what was before
birth and what follows after.

There are tools and practices to take you on these voyages where physics and
rationality don't apply and if you go there once... to put it lightly, things
won't look the same as they did before.

Not a time and place to go deeper, some answers come when we go on to the next
stage, but there's a lot more than what the textbooks teach.

~~~
xtreme
Reality exists independent of the observer. If there is some relationship
between eclipses and hurricanes or between solar flares and seismic activity,
they existed long before life originated on earth and would continue to exist
far beyond our extinction. While we should not discount their possibility
without some research, there is not much reason to believe there is such a
connection without further evidence.

~~~
dingo_bat
> Reality exists independent of the observer.

Quantum mechanics would like a word with you.

~~~
dogma1138
Don't confuse localization with reality.

You also seem to infer observer is some form of intelligence, in reality an
observer or a measurement isn't anything more than a physical interaction.

~~~
dingo_bat
I am talking about this type of experiments: [http://newatlas.com/quantum-
theory-reality-anu/37866/](http://newatlas.com/quantum-theory-reality-
anu/37866/)

~~~
dogma1138
That is just bad journalism. This is localization, let's do a macro
entanglement experiment.

I take you and your friend and draw 2 cards out of a deck one red one black.

I give each one of you a card without you or myself knowing which one has
which.

You and your friend are now entangled, you share a unit of information if I
split you without measurement I "lose" or to be more exact cannot quantify the
information.

I know that each of you has a card, I know that together you have one red and
one black card and just like entangled particles the moment I measure one of
you by asking you to reveal a card the other knows which card they were
holding.

This is a very rough experiment but the point stands; reality doesn't change
and more importantly again a measurement isn't a scientist with a machine it's
a physical interaction.

The particle wasn't localized because a person measured it it was localized
because it had to interact with it another physical object which was the
detector there isn't a non physical way to measure anything any measurement
wil require an exchange of information which means that your system will
become localized.

Also hidden variable theories aside, Pilot Wave Theory does make the same
predictions as QM, explains the "weirdness"and is deterministic.

------
Diederich
[http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-
forecast](http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast) is a
nice resource.

------
samstave
I am starting to think that someone at HAARP went rogue....

~~~
nilved
Nobody has done that since patch 2.3.2.

~~~
samstave
I thought it was patch 322

------
god_bless_texas
I was flying both a manned aircraft yesterday as well as a very expensive
drone. I saw some really weird stuff all day long on both of them.

~~~
brandon272
Do solar flares affect commercial airliners?

------
fsloth
Historical reference: For example, there was a pretty big blackout in '89 due
to space weather
[https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/sun_darkness.html](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/sun_darkness.html)

------
3JPLW
Looks like they're predicting larger than usual aurora effects as a result:
[http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-
forecast](http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast)

Still not getting too far into the lower 48 states, but looks like there
should be good visibility throughout Canada and northern UK.

~~~
dawnerd
There was a period last night that there was a maybe small chance it was
viewable in WA/OR but naturally it was cloudy. So much for that.

------
kazinator
Do solar flares and or geomagnetic storms affect human health?

[https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/8367/do-
solar-f...](https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/8367/do-solar-flares-
and-or-geomagnetic-storms-affect-human-health)

------
tempestn
Possibly stupid question, but could this be related to the earthquake lights
seen in Mexico around the recent quake? IE could it be the reason the effect
was so pronounced?

------
daenney
So what does this mean?

~~~
colanderman
The scale is explained here: [http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-
explanation](http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation) (click on
"Geomagnetic storms")

~~~
daenney
Ah, lovely. Thanks for the pointer!

------
hyperion2010
Might want to drop the 'just' there, since the warning was over as of 11am EST
on Sept 8th (today).

------
eternalban
This guys [1] apparently predicted the Mexican quake last night. He has an
interesting theory regarding connection between Solar activity and
earthquakes. Let's hope he's a crank as he's predicting more events for the
weekend.

[1]:
[https://www.youtube.com/user/dutchsinse](https://www.youtube.com/user/dutchsinse)

~~~
rrmm
Selective recall? Those guys predict a lot of earthquakes. You really have to
look at it statistically in terms of all hits and misses of their predictions.

I can predict there will be an earthquake in the pacific ring of the fire in
the next 72 hours, but me being right doesn't mean I know anything except that
there are a lot of earthquakes in the ring of fire (which is something, but
not specific enough to do anything with).

Also, if there is a link between solar activity and earthquakes, earthquakes
should show an 11 year cyclic pattern, and they don't.

~~~
eternalban
I agree re. stats, but specific claims he is making is precisely this: for
every deep magnitude m there will be compensating shallow magnitude M (> m)
along the boundary conditions.

So it isn't just e.g. "earthquake in ring of fire" but rather "strong but
shallow earthquakes along west cost and central America". He had also
predicted a specific spot in Japan that apparently got hit today with a 4
something. (See his last video.)

Anyway, since now he is predicting a continuity along the fracking zones in
the center running East and up to East Coast in the next few days, I guess
we'll find out how good his methodology is.

The solar connection he is making is per his conjectured model of Earth (which
he claims does not have a solid spinning metal but rather a sort of plasma
that gets energy funnled to it via the mag. poles). So one would, as you say,
expect to see a pattern of heightened activity correlated with the solar
cycles. And I have no idea if that is in fact the case.

Let's see how things pan out.

