
Tesla’s New Car Smell - okket
https://mondaynote.com/teslas-new-car-smell-315c72c955d3
======
Hypx
> I couldn’t help check off the sins against the “Toyota Bible”, prescriptions
> for car manufacturers that are lucidly detailed in The Machine That Changed
> The World (a great and, in parts, sad read). In particular, one mustn’t
> stockpile parts on the floor, they must be fed in small quantities at small
> time intervals. If a part has a problem, only a small quantity needs to be
> shipped back to the supplier who can inspect, correct, and quickly adjust
> their own production process.

This isn't just a minor set of sins. Tesla apparently fundamentally does not
grasp the concept of Lean Manufacturing+ as developed by Toyota, also known as
the Toyota Production System++.

+[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lean_manufacturing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lean_manufacturing)

++[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Production_System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Production_System)

~~~
carlivar
What makes you think Tesla doesn't fundamentally grasp it? This anecdote? The
plural of anecdote is not data.

Your wikipedia link on the Toyota Production System says it was developed
between 1948 and 1975. So it look 27 years to develop. Working for a startup
myself, I'm very aware of Kanban and other TPS-inspired work processes.
Sometimes in startup-hair-on-fire-mode that all goes out the window and I
think that's where Tesla is in company maturity right now.

~~~
Hypx
It's pretty self-evident if you read the next two paragraphs:

> (Ironically, the Fremont plant is prominently featured in “The Machine…” as
> the locus of the ultimately failed GM-Toyota cooperation.)

> As I watched Tesla’s messy, hiccuping line, with workers dashing in to fix
> faulty parts in place, my mind travelled back to the Honda plant I had
> visited years ago in Marysville, Ohio. Clean, calm, everything moved
> smoothly. I was so shocked by the contrast that I imprudently voiced my
> concern. That didn’t go over well with my fellow Tesla owners. I was a
> killjoy, I was calling their choice into question.

So we have an actual first-hand description of the differences between Tesla's
and Toyota/Honda's understanding of lean manufacturing. Even in the very same
building in fact. And I'm pretty sure the author is describing the production
of Model S or X, not the new Model 3. Since those cars have been in production
for a while now, there's no way they wouldn't have implemented something like
the lean manufacturing system unless they simply don't understand it.

~~~
carlivar
I really find it hard to believe they don't understand the TPS. Sure. Maybe. I
don't know.

It seems more likely to me their "goal" (pun intended for those readers of
"The Goal") is the TPS but their particular supply chain may not currently
allow for it.

~~~
wpietri
> I really find it hard to believe they don't understand the TPS. Sure. Maybe.
> I don't know.

American carmakers didn't get it for decades. Even when they thought they did,
they performed Lean rituals without real understanding. This was despite
Toyota trying vigorously to teach them.

~~~
pja
History shows that knowledge transfer is really, really hard. Humans are just
not very good at it :(

(A similar story is told of the spread of the use of Feynman diagrams in
physics - I’ve read that their spread was far slower than you’d expect given
their utility: For whatever reason it wasn’t enough to be told that they were
an incredibly useful tool by people you trusted - it was only when non users
actually worked together on problems with Feynman diagram users, or were
taught by Feynman diagram users directly that their use actually spread. Both
of these transfer methods required physical proximity which restricted the use
of Feynman diagrams to a small number of labs for a surprisingly long time.)

~~~
mcherm
Fascinating story, do you have any idea where you read that?

~~~
pja
Nope, but a quick Google suggests that this paper:

“Spreading the Tools of Theory: Feynman Diagrams in the USA, Japan, and the
Soviet Union” by David Kaiser, Kenji Ito and Karl Hall

[http://web.mit.edu/dikaiser/www/Kaiser.SpreadingTools.pdf](http://web.mit.edu/dikaiser/www/Kaiser.SpreadingTools.pdf)

must have been the original source research.

edit: Also, there’s a book (by one of the authors of that paper): “Drawing
Theories Apart: The Dispersion Of Feynman Diagrams In Postwar Physics”
[https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B002Y5W2X2](https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B002Y5W2X2)

~~~
dctoedt
'pja, you should post the Kaiser et al. paper to HN on its own.

~~~
pja
That's a good idea. Done.

~~~
dctoedt
Excellent. I just upvoted it; I hope the time zone difference won't keep the
post from being seen.

~~~
pja
It got a second chance & got 33 votes the second time, but no discussion. Oh
well - maybe it needs an explanatory blogpost or two in order to draw people
in.

------
KKKKkkkk1
> As I watched Tesla’s messy, hiccuping line, with workers dashing in to fix
> faulty parts in place, my mind travelled back to the Honda plant I had
> visited years ago in Marysville, Ohio. Clean, calm, everything moved
> smoothly. I was so shocked by the contrast that I imprudently voiced my
> concern. That didn’t go over well with my fellow Tesla owners. I was a
> killjoy, I was calling their choice into question.

Well, it's exactly the experience you get when you criticize Tesla on HN.

~~~
joelthelion
The difference is that Honda doesn't make interesting cars. People are ready
to cut Tesla some slack because they are truly innovating.

~~~
selectodude
Because they put a battery in a car?

~~~
TeMPOraL
Because they single-handedly forced the market against its will to accept
electric cars, and we're all better off thanks to it, now that regular car
companies decided to join the party too.

~~~
Cthulhu_
Forced? Not really. They made a good battery-powered car and a lot of
governments heavily subsidized fully electric cars.

~~~
TeMPOraL
They made a first quality electric car that both solved the range problem and
was sexy enough to attract a wide enough audience, thus for the first time
making electric cars a viable and desirable alternative to ICE cars. The
subsidies followed.

~~~
selectodude
Federal subsidies in the US started in 2008, while the Model S wasn’t released
until 2012.

------
csours
Disclaimer up front: I work for a Tesla competitor.

People believe funny things about Tesla and Elon.

But before I talk about that, let me say: I've been extremely impressed with
Tesla and Elon for their ability to eventually deliver, and to build
unparalleled excitement around electric vehicles.

I believe Elon is truly a visionary.

Now for the funny things:

1\. You can throw money at problems to fix them: If you do this you end up
with a 1980's Jaguar - lovely and fast and fun, but unreliable, and overly
expensive, and your competition will eat your lunch.

2\. Tesla shouldn't be graded on cars or car production, they are an X company
(X= software, technology, etc): Whatever kind of company you think Tesla is,
right now they make cars and that's all you can grade them on right now. If
you want to make a bet about the future, go for it, but realize that it is a
bet.

3\. Automation will solve this: GM spent about $60 Billion on advanced
automation in the 1980's because they could not believe that Toyota was
building cars at the cost and quality with human labor (this is a gross
simplification). 10-15 years later, GM basically adopted the Toyota Production
System. It may be possible to build quality cars in a cost effective manner
with near 100% automation, but I do not believe it is possible to build them
BECAUSE OF automation. You must have a good quality process first. Elon's
previous comments about having a bed near the end of the production line rings
alarm bells for anyone who has been in manufacturing. You cannot inspect your
way to quality.

~~~
QAPereo
Just to 3

 _Unknown to analysts, investors and the hundreds of thousands of customers
who signed up to buy it, as recently as early September major portions of the
Model 3 were still being banged out by hand, away from the automated
production line, according to people familiar with the matter.”_

[https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-teslas-production-
delays...](https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-teslas-production-delays-parts-
of-model-3-were-being-made-by-hand-1507321057)

~~~
toomuchtodo
> still being banged out by hand, away from the automated production line,
> according to people familiar with the matter.”

The press is up and running:

[https://www.instagram.com/p/BaInXGBg9G7/](https://www.instagram.com/p/BaInXGBg9G7/)

Based on a 3.7 second cycle time, they can bang out 5,837,837 body panels per
year (assuming some math an automotive engineer on /r/teslamotors provided
that takes into account downtime and typical automotive labor scheduling: 50
weeks/year * 5 days/week * 24 hours/day * 3600 seconds/hour)/3.7 second panel
cycle

EDIT: csours: Thanks! I removed my grossly inaccurate prediction of per-
vehicle pressed components.

in_cahoots: Original response was to comment that Tesla is still banging out
components by hand; this is possible, my rebuttal is that they do have parts
of the line that are fully operational.

~~~
Animats
That's what stamping looks like. Here's Subaru banging out car doors.[1] About
the same cycle time, using automated loading and unloading.

[1] [https://youtu.be/r9byGJtbCws?t=63](https://youtu.be/r9byGJtbCws?t=63)

------
carlivar
The author is only comparing production ability and basic mechanical stats
with the Bolt and Leaf.

I am on the Model 3 waiting list for the Autopilot. Heck, it could be gas
powered and I'd be on the waiting list for the Autopilot. I don't need full
autonomous. I just want the best system, and currently Tesla has it. So
hopefully they figure out their production issues.

I also just bought a 2018 Honda Odyssey as our main family car and it can't
even do adaptive cruise control under 20 mph. I think people underrate how far
ahead Tesla is in these areas. Their competition is currently Google and Uber,
not Chevy, Nissan, etc.

~~~
IcePenguino
I have to agree completely. Autopilot is miles ahead. While I'm waiting for my
3 preorder, I took a test drive a Model S. I haven't felt as moved by a
technology like Autopilot since I first swiped on the first iPhone.

Coincidentally, we're in the market for a 2018 Odyssey as our family car too.

~~~
siavosh
Off topic - but curious of why Odyssey > Sienna? ...as I'm having a hard time
deciding.

~~~
carlivar
Android Auto and Apple CarPlay is in Honda (and lots of other cars). Toyota is
currently in a state of rejecting these integrations, which I think is
foolish.

------
xenadu02
Manufacturing ramp-up is exactly this sort of thing. Building by-hand as you
work out the process and employ more automation. I'm not sure this is
unexpected?

As an investor I know full well Tesla has a ticking clock. They must achieve
scale before the giants can catch up. People underestimate how god-awful slow
the big car makers are. They haven't even come to terms with what Tesla is
really doing yet. None have anything like the software experience. My guess is
Tesla has 5 more years before the big makers can truly become competitive
(assuming they all fire their software engineers and hire new ones today).

Time will tell. If they're still fumbling a year from now then I'll start to
get concerned. If they can't churn out at least 250,000 vehicles per year
within two years I'll be very concerned.

~~~
Analemma_
> People underestimate how god-awful slow the big car makers are

I think it’s exactly the opposite. People enamoured with Tesla and Musk tend
to _over_ -estimate how slow the old car makers are, because they’re so used
to the “Silicon Valley story” that we will inevitably come in and take over
everything.

Look: it’s 2017. Everybody has read the Innovator’s Dilemma, everybody knows
how fast e.g. Palm, Nokia, etc. went out of business. The old companies aren’t
stupid, and they aren’t sitting around waiting for Tesla to eat their lunch.

> None have anything like the software experience.

GM is arguably in the lead right now as far as autonomous driving capability.
They’re at least tied with Google and certainly ahead of Tesla.

I’m going to be blunt: you don’t sound like a very good investor. You sound
like someone who makes decisions based on hype and wishful thinking instead of
real evidence. My recommendation would be to get out now before you lose your
shirt.

~~~
erk__
And companies like VW, BMW and Toyota are also investing a large amount om
money into autonomous driving, they just keep it more behind curtains than
Tesla.

~~~
Tiktaalik
Ditto with electric tech. You can buy an electric VW right now, and from
reviews I've read it's apparently a fantastic product. The difference is in
hype. VW very boringly made their existing dependable and well known Golf
electric.

------
DavidAdams
Tesla is trying to "lean startup" the Model 3. Not clear whether that was
originally their intention, but the fact that they're building parts of the
Model 3 by hand immediately brings to mind the kind of non-scaleable stuff
that people in the software industry do at early phases of their evolution
(things that are hailed as "the right thing to do). Maybe Tesla's undoing is
that there's a little too much of the Silicon Valley ethos going on there.

~~~
danmaz74
I don't think that's a fair comparison; I'm sure they had a plan for mass-
scale production for model 3 from the start, the problem is if that
plan/approach will work or not in a reasonable time.

The non-scaleable stuff was most likely done in parallel not to delay initial
deliveries, they don't need to validate the product idea.

------
andrewtbham
People that are caught up on this "miss" obviously do not follow the guidance
very closely. On the last conference call they repeatedly downplayed the
importance of the Q3 delivery guidance and repeatedly stated it would be
difficult to predict and that there was a high degree of uncertainty. They
repeated this ad nauseam.

Here is a sample: >So, I would simply urge people to not get too caught up in
what exactly falls within the exact calendar boundaries of a quarter, one
quarter or the next, because when you have an exponentially growing production
ramp, slight changes of a few weeks here or there can appear to have dramatic
changes, but that is simply because of the arbitrary nature of when a quarter
ends.

That is why there has been little stock movement despite this miss. Run rate
at the end of Q4 is a different story. That is very important guidance.

[https://seekingalpha.com/article/4094115-tesla-
tsla-q2-2017-...](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4094115-tesla-
tsla-q2-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript)

Also, another indication that this guy know anything about Tesla's goals or
guidane... Tesla has repeatedly stated they are not going to increase Model
S/X production beyond 25k per quarter. They think that's close to the total
addressable market and it's costly to expand production beyond that.

------
cateye
I really thought that the article was literally about the smell of the cars :)

~~~
xiphias
I wasn't sure, but now that I checked, it's clickbait, and flagged it

~~~
matt4077
It's not a very good article so I'm really not invested in this, but the title
isn't "clickbait". It's a play on words, a rather creative use of the
ambiguity of language.

------
bobbles
You can complain about Tesla missing a deadline by a year but you need to also
consider them pulling the rest of the industry forward by 10 years when they
do it

~~~
tptacek
That may be a compelling HN argument about the heroism of Elon Musk, but for a
competitive car company, "pulling the rest of the industry forward 10 years in
the span of 1 year" is a _very bad thing_.

------
QAPereo
I just kept thinking, “well yeah, but the optimists might be right, and Musk
has done amazing things before.” Then...

 _Unknown to analysts, investors and the hundreds of thousands of customers
who signed up to buy it, as recently as early September major portions of the
Model 3 were still being banged out by hand, away from the automated
production line, according to people familiar with the matter._

That reeks of fundamental issues at odds with _“It is important to emphasize
that there are no fundamental issues with the Model 3 production or supply
chain. We understand what needs to be fixed and we are confident of addressing
the manufacturing bottleneck issues in the near-term.”_

Maybe mass production is that one step too far.

------
abalone
_> What seriously worried me was a July 2016 visit to Tesla’s manufacturing
plant... In an exchange with a trusted industry observer, I found out that he
had had exactly the same experience only weeks ago, but he couldn’t write
about it by “virtue” of the NDA he’d signed._

Did Gassée's NDA expire or what? He's certainly divulging details about the
factory. He previously wrote that he couldn't write about his visit due to an
NDA.[1]

[1] [https://mondaynote.com/chairman-elons-great-leap-
forward-68f...](https://mondaynote.com/chairman-elons-great-leap-
forward-68f49ffde372)

------
LAMike
"If a part has a problem, only a small quantity needs to be shipped back to
the supplier who can inspect, correct, and quickly adjust their own production
process."

Isn't one of the advantages of having a minimal, electric vehicle that there
are fewer moving parts?

Telsa is in a interesting position as a software/car maker. There production
line is like an algorithm they are adjusting on the fly, and it's obviously
going to be messy when you don't have multiple decades of manufacturing
experience.

Still, Tesla's learning curve is steep, and the M3 is a much more simpler car.
Don't be against Elon, it's quite possible he'll be able to figure out how to
make 10K/week once the kinks are figured out.

~~~
dilemma
The world's leading assembler of cars, Toyota, doesn't use artificial
intelligence but human intelligence to make its processes run smooth and
continuously improve them. A large human component is necessary in production
and this idea of using software and full automation to optimize it is a
pipedream.

~~~
nostalgiac
Isn't a pipedream basically exactly what Elon is always trying to produce?

Why is this a bad thing and why isn't software/full automation achievable?

------
locusm
Makes some good points except for the competition, I think its weak. Always
wondered why Nissan intentionally made such an ugly car, I think the Leaf is
no longer sold in Australia due to poor numbers. Isn't the Bolt a hybrid?

~~~
shirro
No it is an EV. The Volt was the hybrid. Confusing naming. Decent range and
acceleration but no RHD model so not an option for Australia. Sad to have a GM
plant going idle in Adelaide and no electric car subsidies.

------
rtpg
I wonder if there are many side effects from this sort of schedule slippage
apart from just needing more time.

If the only result is the schedule slipping, then investors can continue
giving to Tesla with the assurance that things happen "eventually".

If this is actually indicative of greater disorganization, then perhaps we'll
see more issues later on. But my impression is that this is _the_ major issue
for Tesla... and ultimately it's an issue that can be solved with more money.

~~~
dilemma
Production issues in car manufacturing can be solved by adding more resources
just like adding more programmers to a software project can. Nope, not at all.

~~~
rtpg
What I'm saying isn't that the production issues get solved. What I'm saying
is that if you have enough money, delays aren't as much of an issue in itself.
You can wait things out.

Valve surely has a lot of developement issues leading to delays, but they
still got Half Life 2 out and made a bunch of money off of it.

~~~
dilemma
No, you did say that money solves production issues.

~~~
rtpg
to clarify, what I meant by "issue" is production delays. There are underlying
issues for sure, and those won't be solved just with money.

But many side effects of delays are mitigated by throwing money at it. And
spending money is usually an easy option, if you have a lot of it.

~~~
dilemma
It's getting less and less clear.

------
sschueller
A greater problem may be the insider trading that might be going on according
to the author.

~~~
matt4077
That allegation is completely unproven. An with that set of facts ("some
people know more than others", "the stock price changes") you can literally
find "insider trading" for any given stock, in any given week.

------
RickJWagner
Hmmmmm. If I were a short seller, this might help me make my game plan.

Or not. Markets aren't rational, it could be costly.

------
phipa
I worked for Tesla for 5 years, joining with a cohort a few months before
Model S launch in 2012 and departing recently to take a rest. My role involved
architecting, developing, and helping support many software systems focused in
the financial domain. These systems process all of the downstream events
arising from sales, procurement, production, and other activities of the
company with financial effect.

Many often wonder why large software system projects are difficult. Many often
wonder why running large organizations such as governments is difficult. In
this topic some wonder why large scale vehicle manufacturing processes are
difficult. These fundamentally share properties.

One key challenge is that system, organization, and process complexity do not
grow in a linear manner. If you have ever tried to estimate software
development time for larger projects you understand how wildly inaccurate it
can be. The number of interaction points multiply with growth. Progress feels
extremely fast at the beginning. As the system surface area grows it becomes
increasing difficult to push incremental improvements forward. A single person
or small team comprehensively understanding the entire system and keeping
enough of it in working memory becomes a challenge. There are design and
management strategies to combat the challenge but in my opinion only time and
iteration can truly overcome.

The single most important long-term factor here is whether quality and
continuing improvement is part of the culture or not. I believe they are, as
suggested by the production target miss. A process of prioritizing and then
fixing sub-optimal system and process interaction points, both internally and
externally, will drive the company to high output while maintaining quality
over time. TPS [0] concepts are well known but one doesn't simply download and
install it in an afternoon. It can take decades to optimize.

The single _worst_ decision the company could make is to pump out vehicles to
meet a production target metric while sacrificing quality. That has been tried
before in this country (and at the same factory several decades ago no less
[1]) and did not work out well.

For perspective: Competitive threats are just not a very big deal. Globally,
72 million cars were produced last year [2]. If Tesla captures just 1% of that
market it is still a huge achievement - 720k cars per year. Even if we assume
they sell only the lowest price Model 3 at $35k and ignore all other vehicle
and energy products that would equate to over $25 billion in revenue - 10
times the 2016 annual figure. The market will also grow as the global economy
does. _There is plenty of room_.

[0]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Production_System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Production_System)
[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NUMMI#Background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NUMMI#Background)
[2] [https://www.statista.com/statistics/262747/worldwide-
automob...](https://www.statista.com/statistics/262747/worldwide-automobile-
production-since-2000/)

------
matt4077
_In taking delivery of my wife’s Model S, we were treated to a group tour of
the site. Everyone marveled at the robot porn,[...]

Everyone but yours truly. I couldn’t help check off the sins against the
“Toyota Bible”_

And I can't help but notice that his truly is still putting his wife's truly
into a Tesla, not a Toyota.

There seems to be a wave of stories critical of Musk currently, and most seem
to be rooted in some sort of ill will towards the man. Other than that, I just
can't wrap my head around these alarmist screeds, considering a few months'
delay is, if anything, so little one wonders if Musk is spending too much time
on production...

It's annoying for customers, but hey: at least you're not one of those
customers whose vehicle gets blown up 5 miles off the coast of Florida.

I ca

~~~
majormajor
If you've got money you might also buy a Rolls Royce, Aston Martin, Lambo,
BMW, Jaguar, etc, instead of a Toyota too, because who cares about things like
quality control at that point, and you want something different, but you'd be
laughed out of the room if you said "I know Alfa Romeos are better made than
Toyotas because they're fancier and cost more."

