
From Underwear to Cars, India’s Economy Is Fraying - known
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/21/business/economy/india-economy-trade.html
======
brainless
I am an Indian, in India. To be honest I think our current situation is not
just a slowdown. I feel the country has become largely divided when it comes
to day-to-day economics.

I am sitting in a co-working space in Bangalore, I do that in Kolkata often
and will head to Mumbai soon. I hardly see people talking about slowdown in
these spaces. The cities seemingly are powered more by funds from outside and
are alienated to the issues in agriculture or manufacturing.

Not just the government, but the well-to-do educated class have simply stopped
looking at the country as a whole - that is my feeling and I am guilty of the
same.

~~~
throw2343w2
This is hardly a new phenomenon.

India has for the past few hundred years been run by an elite linguistic
minority - the so called Macaulay's children. It's hardly a wonder that the
deep state in India both despises and organizes self-righteous protests
against local linguistic communities, all while simultaneously ensuring that
education, the bureaucracy and employment remain isolated to English speakers.
Little wonder that most of India's bright minds leave for the US right after
(or even before) graduation.

It's astonishing that Social 'Scientists' have paid such little attention to
such glaring structural disparities (compared to say China), while they go on
wrecking what's left of Indian society using theories entirely developed by
foreigners. Education has definitely gone downhill as a result over the past
few decades - while my parents tell us stories of great education in Public
schools (run, quite sensibly, in the local languages), I can see the abysmal
state of these today. The state has tried to offload its duties (while
imposing one of the highest tax rates in the world) by emburdening Hindu-run
schools (somehow this is 'secular') using RTE, but the competition and the
fees at some of the better schools has become quite absurd of late, costing
people close to ~$3000 annually, and an additional one time 'donation' which
will help cut the long queues for these schools.

Considering that this kind of colonial social structures are absent in most
countries, it is to be expected that the Indian economy can't really outgrow
its ~100 million elite, while the underclass remains bound in a sub-saharan
level educational and cognitive achievements (that is if they're even
literate).

It is very interesting that the self-labelled "Left" in India is at the helm
of further pushing these colonial policies, while the supposed "right", in
their bombastic arrogance, are happy to implement them (see Shiv Sena, BJP
etc., and also the DMKs in Tamil Nadu). It's very unlikely that India will
ever achieve parity with China in our lifetimes, considering its self-
destructive tendencies.

~~~
justforfunhere
>>> It's very unlikely that India will ever achieve parity with China in our
lifetimes, considering its self-destructive tendencies.

And to add to that, we don't really exist in the most peaceful part of the
world with at least two of our neighbors ( Ch, Pk ) having fought wars with us
in the last fifty years.

~~~
rapsey
I don't think that is all that relevant in this context (see Israel).

~~~
justforfunhere
I tend to agree with you that Israel, as a country of its size and kind of
neighbors its surrounded with, is not placed very pleasantly. But it is a
country far more homogeneous than India in all the respects that make a nation
( religious, social, demographically and economy wise ).

As GP pointed out that India has the potential to self-implode given the
inequality and poverty that has been bred for a long time ( hundreds of years
) by various rulers of the land.

The self destruction reaction might just fasten up if a catalyst is provided
by anyone of the hostile neighbors.

~~~
QuesnayJr
Israel is very far from being homogeneous. It's made up of people who
immigrated there from all over Europe and the Middle East. There is a big
cultural divide between the people from European backgrounds and people from
Middle Eastern backgrounds. It also has a significant Muslim population (17%).

------
intended
An absolutely avoidable problem.

On the day the Indian govt announced demonitization, the first phone calls I
made were to economists and to people with actual experience working in the
hinterlands.

Because the fact that was true in 1990, 2000, and the day of demonitization
was that more than 70% of India transacts through cash.

This has never changed. Demonitization meant that for those people, the
economy didn’t just stall, it stopped.

However, people are resilient and the belief was that people would recover.

Except that the govt followed up with a new tax regime that applied to
everyone - including these cash driven workers.

These are people who don’t have electricity, and aren’t even necessarily
literate.

I think most people can appreciate the cost to their razor thin margins when
the costs of compliance, translation, formal accounting and more get tacked
on.

The part that most people forget, because this govt has superb PR, was that
before The elections the largest protests by farmers was taking place in
Delhi.

Farmers commit suicide in india at some rate measurable in multiple dead
farmers per day. It was bad before and was getting worse.

However this was obscured A few days later, by India’s assault on terrorist
camps in Pakistan territory.

The dramatic and muscular response changed the focus- people went from
complaining to “I should endure, see what my country is doing to my enemies.”

In short : the signs have always been there, they have never been hidden, and
it’s likely the relatively more privileged classes who were unaware of what
was happening.

~~~
Retric
There are over 100 million farmers in India. If India farmers had the US
suicide rate you would expect ~40 suicides per day.

~~~
intended
Unsurprising-

>The US farmer suicide crisis echoes a much larger farmer suicide crisis
happening globally: an Australian farmer dies by suicide every four days; in
the UK, one farmer a week takes his or her own life; in France, one farmer
dies by suicide every two days; in India, more than 270,000 farmers have died
by suicide since 1995

2015 had about 37 farmers killing themselves everyday if I’m not off.

[https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/06/why-are-
amer...](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/06/why-are-americas-
farmers-killing-themselves-in-record-numbers)

And Wikipedia article on Indian farmer suicides.

~~~
Retric
I get what your saying, but ~630 people per day commit suicide in India.
That's ~50 million people since 1995.

In other words Indian farmers are not unusual likely to commit suicide, it's
just a sick talking point.

~~~
NotSammyHagar
That works out to ~5 million, not 50m. Still horrible to think about. 5.518
million people killed themselves?

630 _365_ 24

~~~
Retric
Ops, had 5.5 million figured that was false precision, and somehow edited it
to 50 :(

------
noufalibrahim
I live and work in a Tier 3 city in India. I generally find it more
comfortable and liveable in (though perhaps a little too slow and boring).

Anyway, one of things that I've reading about and slowly beginning to align
with is the massiveness of the unorganised sector in the country. Lots of
transactions and activity takes place in a way that the central government and
planning agencies don't have direct visibility into.

To use a programming metaphor, it's a huge ball of legacy code with patches on
top of patches on top of workarounds and special cases. Trying to
systematically manipulate this is hard, to say the least. I'm not sure if the
push to digital transactions, the demonetisation and other things will change
this. I don't think it's likely but neverthless, it's an interesting thought
exercise.

One interesting podcast that recently discussed this is
[https://www.thinkpragati.com/podcast/the-seen-and-the-
unseen...](https://www.thinkpragati.com/podcast/the-seen-and-the-
unseen/7954/demystifying-gdp/). It specifically discusses GDP as a performance
measure, what its limitations are and how those are relevant to India.

~~~
sbmthakur
I live in a Tier 1 city and online transactions have gone up over the years.
Not sure how much of this is due to the Demonetization, but UPI has played a
significant part.[1]

1\. [https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/banking-
finance/in...](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/banking-
finance/india-loves-upi-90-crore-upi-transactions-so-far-10-crore-in-august-
alone/1697018/1).

~~~
noufalibrahim
My experience as well. A lot of people even in Tier 3 places ask whether if
you have Tez or something especially if they don't have change.

------
puranjay
India's policymakers seem to have no idea how the country actually works. Both
Demonetization and GST are classic examples, as is the constant back and forth
on taxes. The GST system is so draconian that most small businesses can't use
it without seeking outside help. And this outside help is expensive - at least
for a small trader making tiny profits.

The surcharge on FPIs is another example. Could the government not have
foreseen that there will be a flight of capital because of the surcharge? They
ended up retracting it anyway.

~~~
jorgen_is_alive
Formallization of economy does come at a price

~~~
puranjay
Does the price include weekly rule changes and the assumption that your
largely poorly educated population will somehow learn to use your poorly
designed, complicated software?

~~~
rohan_shah
Yes. Things that have never been done before on such large scale can be only
be perfected with incremental changes after gathering data.

~~~
puranjay
Easy for us to say sitting in our ivory towers my man. Draconian laws aren't
impacting our ability to feed and clothe ourselves.

~~~
sbmthakur
I'm not sure how complicated GST software impacted someone's ability to feed
and clothe ourselves.

Most of the key laws in India do impact many people in India because it's a
country with a huge population. Nowadays there is the talk of banning single-
use-plastic in the country. Companies are likely to lose business and some
people will be severely impacted. Does that mean we should continue to use
that kind of plastic(which harms the environment)?

------
rohan_shah
I've a theory but that is not backed by data.

Land prices in India are dropping rapidly. Here how (my hypothesis): People
for generations have thought that land prices will always increase. It might
have been true before Demonetization. But now it is almost impossible to do
anything with cash (expect the purchase of land). So if anyone thinks of
buying land for any residential, commercial or industrial purpose, they will
not able to use their cash in building because there are subsidies available
for those who take loans to finance such building. So people will use loans
(accounted money) to build their buildings. You cannot also buy cars with cash
(unaccounted cash).

Because of this, land purchases have either gone down or vanished (by
unaccounted cash which was majority of the purchases).

So the prices are rapidly falling as people decide on selling and don't find a
buyer at the perceived market rate. So they lower the prices and the vicious
downward cycle continues.

Put simply: There was a land price bubble because of black money. Now the
bubble is slowly bursting. IMO the bubble was so huge (as a % of the GDP), I
think we're in serious trouble with the spillover effect of fallen property
prices.

~~~
kamaal
>>There was a land price bubble because of black money. Now the bubble is
slowly bursting.

High value transactions were already tracked AND you can't register a property
anywhere in a city without a PAN card. So enough with this depicting investors
as cheats.

There is no bubble because India is in the beginning of urbanization phases,
and land rates are obviously high because the demand is way beyond the supply.
So the prices being high is basically Econ 101.

Instead of framing arguments this way, try understanding how some people are
able to anticipate and buy lands years in advance, while some people can't
even maintain discipline to invests in SIPs.

~~~
geodel
> High value transactions were already tracked AND you can't register a
> property anywhere in a city without a PAN card.

I don't how you never experienced or know that this PAN card requirement is
not much. A lot of land/home transaction involves large amount of unaccounted
cash and this does not reflect on registered property price. Also if land
price is 'obviously high' why rental yields are lowest in India compared to
price of property. Who would really buy real estate if bank fixed deposits
give better returns than rental income?

~~~
kamaal
>>I don't how you never experienced or know that this PAN card requirement is
not much.

You literally can't register a property in Bangalore without a PAN card. So
please... AND the registrations are online. Everything is tracked. And in fact
people themselves prefer its tracked because it prevents encroachment, double
registrations etc.

>>A lot of land/home transaction involves large amount of unaccounted cash and
this does not reflect on registered property price.

This was there long back. People keep repeating this, without any basis. The
government can evaluate every single property and its evaluation traded as of
at least 15 years now.

>>Also if land price is 'obviously high' why rental yields are lowest in India
compared to price of property.

Because of several things. Firstly Land prices are high because individual
people want them. Second when home units are built they are built several
units over a single piece of land. Thirdly rental yields are also dependent on
quality of construction, access to infrastructure, locality etc.

>>Who would really buy real estate if bank fixed deposits give better returns
than rental income?

Simple reason. If you put money in fixed deposits inflation will eat the
principle and you will eat the returns. Liquid money is easy to spend so it
goes fast. Real estate is hard to dispose, so it stays and can be transferred
over to the next generations.

Plus land rates appreciate, and you get rental yield and you can use the
deposit money to earn interest. Beyond this you get the advantage of owning a
piece of real estate in prime locations as time passes.

Stock investments require a lot of baby sitting and economic problems like
these its hard for people to make decisions. Money once gone cannot be
recovered easily. In case of real estate lands don't rot or vanish.

Looking at it from multiple vantage points, Land ownership is by far the best
investment you will make in a country like India.

------
sifar
This was due. It was disguised due the euphoria of the election year.

I think the current government is going to find out the hard way that one
cannot tame the economic beast. There are things like delays, feedback,
international events, the weather which you cannot control and can render your
models ineffective. Huge expenditures were lined up expecting increased tax
revenues which declined due to faulty policies/increasing compliance cost
leading to a downward spiral. No transparency in handling the NPAs. Instead we
get bank mergers, saddling good ones with the bad.

Also the increased exposure to sovereign debt denominated in foreign currency
will be a greater risk.

Everything is glossed over/tinged by nationalistic fervor which makes
admitting you were wrong or you made a mistake an anathema.

~~~
sbmthakur
> Also the increased exposure to sovereign debt denominated in foreign
> currency will be a greater risk.

Borrowing from outside could be good if the interest rates are lower.

~~~
sbmthakur
To expound further, the government borrows roughly INR 5 lakh crores net per
year. In the next year, the estimate of revenue that we want to collect just
taxes, Indians will collect about 16 lakh gross, the government will pay 6.5
lakh crores in debt interest payment. About 40% percent of all of money that
you're paying as a tax, is going not to build infrastructure, not to feed the
hungry, not to pay farmers for food. It's going towards interest payments on
the debt they borrowed in the past. Why would this be a problem? because we
borrow debt at extremely high rates part.[1]

1\.
[https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aHR0cDovL2NhcGl0YWxtaW5kLm...](https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aHR0cDovL2NhcGl0YWxtaW5kLmxpYnN5bi5jb20vcnNz&episode=NzM3YTRlNjc3NGFlNGU4MzhjMjk1MDU5NGFmYWNhYTI)

~~~
sifar
I know most of the revenue goes into interest payments. The solution to that
is not to borrow more at lower interest and waste on profligate projects which
won't generate revenue.

~~~
sbmthakur
We cannot exactly determine in advance if a project is going to be a waste.

The Government has to get more money in one or the other for purchasing
weapons, infrastructure building and financing social schemes. One way is to
increase taxes which we all hate, the other way is to borrow. So, why not
borrow at low interests?

~~~
sifar
>> We cannot exactly determine in advance if a project is going to be a waste.

Really ? Please stop the doublespeak.

Purchasing weapons, social schemes (read subsidies/guaranteed income), mega
infrastructure projects are all wasteful.

Borrowed money when not invested in revenue generation is an extra tax on
future generations.

~~~
sbmthakur
Obviously, those things will not bring in revenue and they are wasteful from
that perspective. But they are still required for national security,
upliftment of poor and to facilitate people of the country.

> Borrowed money when not invested in revenue generation is an extra tax on
> future generations.

That's true. But Government isn't a business, they've to finance a plethora of
things.

------
kamaal
This article states the symptoms without even remotely touching the root
causes. When the current government took control in 2014, they moved swiftly
and banned entirety of 1000 and 500 notes in circulation. This was a move
called _Demonetisation_. This effectively killed the economy. This was
originally hailed as an ace move by the government's supporters. Because it
was originally thought untaxed money(also known as black money) is the root
cause of India's illness. What happened in reality was a lot of capital
intensive businesses suffered as an immediate aftermath. The most important of
them being Real estate, which employees a huge section of people and drives a
lot of business. Cement, Paint, Plumbing, Electrical, Logistics etc etc.
Indian public is also very price sensitive. It's not considered wise to be
spending money buying cars if you don't even have a home. This was the first
blow.

Secondly, there was a tax policy called GST. This was the next big blunder
made by the government. The Indian economy is a result of tons of hacks
carefully evolved and put into place over decades. GST had a flawed execution
and with equally screwed up tax rates. Revisions are painful to impossible.
Quarterly filing is hard for small businesses and rates are just unworkable.
Combined with a lot of extortion like activities from Tax authorities. Tons of
start ups suffered too.

This is above and beyond the fact that the current government has possibly the
worst possible social policy. India's diversity is at risk. Choice of food or
religion can get you lynched. The government is planning a country wide
citizenship register, on the same lines of Reich Citizenship Law,
detention(concentration?) camps are already being built. This is a serious
threat to India's future on the very longer run. These experiments have never
worked anywhere in the world, and will be an even bigger disaster given how
big and diverse India is.

For what its worth stating, economy isn't even in the top ten list of
priorities this government has and its constituency doesn't care either.

~~~
uxcolumbo
RE: The government is planning a country wide citizenship register, on the
same lines of Reich Citizenship Law, detention(concentration?) camps are
already being built.

Can you expand on this? Why are these camps being built?

~~~
sbmthakur
It's typical fear mongering.

It deals with Assam which is a state in India that has suffered decades of
illegal immigration, so much that the locals have often resorted to violent
agitations to protest. Failure of successive governments to act on the issue
has further complicated the issue.

The current Government is implenting NRC which was decided by a previous
government. Those who can't prove their citizenship as per NRC will probably
loose their citizenships.

~~~
pkphilip
It is not as simple as that because the government is deciding citizenship
based on religion as well. Multiple members of the government have made it
clear that Hindus will not face issues (implying that others will)

------
OJFord
It's tangential, but I hate sentences like:

> Dollar pays him a monthly salary of 12,000 rupees, or about $167, and
> provides lodging and some subsidized food.

It reads like it's supposed to illicit a 'Cor, just $167?' response, but what
do I know of what $167 means to him? How hard would it be to include alongside
it the retail cost of the underwear he's contributing to the manufacture of?

~~~
aviraldg
A couple of dollars: [https://www.amazon.in/Dollar-Bigboss-Cotton-
Trunks-890288931...](https://www.amazon.in/Dollar-Bigboss-Cotton-
Trunks-8902889315232_BB-LONG-COFFEE-90/dp/B01MRBV6GJ)

------
geodel
The fact is at average indian income level the consumption has drastically
increased compared to Income in last 2 decades. So slowdown like this
inevitable.

It is strange that some people claim GST is bad which is kind of forcing lot
of firms to pay taxes which otherwise operated in grey area for a long time
and never really being captured by existing tax mechanisms. As if not paying
taxes is better if well-off people continue buying more cars and eat out more
often.

Saving rates in India is much lower so it can not fund further economic
expansion. Government and financial media is generally obsessed with petty
money in form of Foreign investments for growth. No country has sustainably
developed just by foreign funds. It must have substantial saving level to
provide low cost funds for investments.

------
BAReF00t
Looking at the CO2 pollution charts ...

It's clear that India is the next China: The country that we order cheap
manufactured goods from, so our own CO2 numbers keep looking good and we don't
have to concern ourselves with worker rights, pollution, etc.

Also, what many people forget, that the country is so big, their middle class
(or even rich class) is bigger than their/my entire country.

------
abhi_kr
I think the average Indian consumer has become more aware and conservative in
their spending. Thanks to the wider reach of the internet, financial literacy
is gradually increasing. Combine that with an economic slowdown and people are
just more thoughtful about where they spend money. This is a natural
consequence of a slowdown as Indian people are very risk-averse.

Prices of Cars and Houses have increased at a much higher rate than the
Incomes, so people are delaying spending on expensive purchases. However, this
is probably just one of the factors.

Demonetisation has definitely had an adverse effect on small individual
businesses that operated on cash. Cash was the primary mode of transaction for
maximum number of Indian people, especially the non-urban population.
Unavailability of sufficient cash in the system for a long period of time has
hit them hard. You cannot expect a barely literate rural person to suddenly
start using digital form of payments.

------
sbmthakur
The Government has recently slashed Corporate tax.[1] We will have to see how
much it helps in addressing the economy.

1\. [https://www.livemint.com/news/india/govt-proposes-to-
slash-c...](https://www.livemint.com/news/india/govt-proposes-to-slash-
corporate-tax-rates-1568954944900.html)

~~~
0xmohit
Obligatory reading:

The IMF Confirms That ‘Trickle-Down’ Economics Is, Indeed, a Joke

[https://psmag.com/economics/trickle-down-economics-is-
indeed...](https://psmag.com/economics/trickle-down-economics-is-indeed-a-
joke)

------
naruvimama
I come from TN in India where it is an open secret that the politicians, their
thugs and benamis [proxy] own a large chunk of the economy. Nepotism had
become the norm.

Indian industries have also woefully lagged behind China in technology and
sophistication. And even new entrants like Vietnam & Bangladesh pushed on by
their export oriented economy have surged ahead.

The changes made since the new government took to power has shaken up this.
The backbone of the old network of big wigs thriving on subsidies and crony
capitalism has been broken.

This is both a short term pain and a great opportunity to fill the void with
more advanced industries. There is no fundamental reason India can not aim for
10+% growth rate, given its young population and the fact that it has a lot of
productivity growth to catch up with.

My own prognosis is that even with a global recession, this might be a
temporary realignment of industries.

Unlike many other commenters here, maintaining "Status quo" is not in India's
best interests.

~~~
sbmthakur
I think it's important that proper lessons are learned and reforms are taken.
Just like what happened in 1991.

[https://www.capitalmind.in/2019/09/dont-waste-a-slowdown-
par...](https://www.capitalmind.in/2019/09/dont-waste-a-slowdown-part-1-whats-
going-on/)

------
pkphilip
Indian economy is in a mess. The National Saving Scheme (NSS) which is where a
lot of people store their life savings has been raided by the present
government to fund the Food Corporation of India (FCI) in a very scandalous
way to artificially hide the fiscal deficit. The Life Insurance Corporation
(LIC) has also been plundered by the present government and most recently the
Reserve Bank's coffers have also been raided.

The GST collections have fallen, the employment figures have skyrocketed to
being the worst in over 45 years and now the govt has stopped releasing
unemployment data, all the largest industries are in turmoil. Commercial
vehicle sales have shown nearly a 60% dip.

But the govt continues to spin stories of how things are just wonderful. Modi
continues to fly on tax payer money to meet his overseas supporters and to hug
Trump.

------
forgotmypw
>Families are even skimping on the 7-cent packets of Parle biscuits that are a
staple of India’s morning milk and tea. They are turning instead to even
cheaper snacks made by local food vendors, according to Mayank Shah, a Parle
executive. Biscuit sales are down about 8 percent, he said, and if current
trends continue, the company may cut as many as 10,000 jobs.

Sounds like grave news for the "economy", and good news for India's next seven
generations of humans and their habitat.

~~~
DrKabab
How is this good for future generations?

~~~
forgotmypw
A smaller portion of their habitat will be ground up and reshaped into factory
farms.

------
m23khan
global economy is slowing down, it’s not just India.

------
abledon
skip-the-paywall link: [http://archive.is/IHh34](http://archive.is/IHh34)

------
robk
Funny to see how the nytimes manages to shoe horn in blaming Trump for this
somehow. Hard to find anything bad these days without trump to blame.

~~~
thombat
It's referencing the trade disputes between the current US administration &
India. So it's of relevance when talking about the Indian economy:

[https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-
watch...](https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/trumps-
mini-trade-war-india)

~~~
growlist
Problem is, for those of us that don't buy into the incessant 'Orange Man
Bad!' narrative it's becoming like The Boy That Cried Wolf trying to determine
the signal from the noise as regards Trump. And the fact you responded to
point out 'no, this one is actually true' suggests it's a genuine problem.

~~~
chillacy
Wait you're blaming the parent for self-inflicted burnout not reflecting
reality?

------
wtdata
Well, this might actually be very good for the environment. Like the
environmentalist keep repeating, the expectation of eternal economic growth is
having a big toll on the environment and India was set to almost double their
(already quite hight) CO2 emissions by 2030.

This might actually be a blessing for the environment.

[https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india/](https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india/)

~~~
familysized
Stupid statement. Nature doesn't care about country borders. Per capita
emissions from India are extremely low compared to countries like the US.

The same site says that the US has "critically insufficient" commitments
towards climate change.

[https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/usa/](https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/usa/)

Maybe look at your own country before blaming others. You have more work to do
towards climate change than the Indians.

~~~
wtdata
> Nature doesn't care about country borders.

You are right, what nature actually cares greatly, is about exponential
population growth with no regard for future sustainability.

Maybe we should look at India's over-population before demanding other
countries to sacrifice for India's (and many countries in South East Asia)
shortsightedness.

~~~
familysized
> You are right, what nature actually cares greatly, is about exponential
> population growth with no regard for future sustainability.

Perfect, I was waiting for you to say this. Now I have the chance to educate
you (which should have been done by your "superior western education" but
anyway).

Read these articles and you will find that exponential growth is a myth. We
are already close to replacement levels. The population is high in India and
China only because of historic reasons - they are one of the most fertile
lands on the planet.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_union_terri...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_union_territories_of_India_by_fertility_rate)

Then watch this video to understand the real trends in population growth.

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78)

Great! You finally rid yourself of these myths.

~~~
wtdata
> We are already close to replacement levels

We are at those levels for almost 50 years now in "the west". Guess you are
conveniently disregarding the mess you created over this last half century(and
long before when the growth in India was 6 children per couple while in the
USA it was 3).

Here is a novel idea for you: you use the resources available by your
territory as you see fit as long as you don't destroy the rest of the planet
for us. If you choose to do it with double your population or half your
population, is solely your sovereign choice and we have nothing to say about
it. The same way you shouldn't have anything to say about how we use our
resources with our - in check - population where people - for a very long time
now - mostly think twice about if they can actually support a child with the
resources available (natural or economic) before having it.

~~~
familysized
> We are at those levels for almost 50 years now in "the west".

Even with 1/4th of the population of India, and having access to latest
technology, the US has emitted obscene levels of CO2 in the last 50 years [0]
and has not shown much signs of improvement. And you are blaming a 70-year old
country that was in post-colonial shambles 50 years ago. You should be ashamed
of yourself.

> don't destroy the rest of the planet for us.

Peak arrogance. Isn't it you who is destroying the planet with your luxury
lifestyle? Take a look at [0]. You expect poor people that barely have enough
food on their plate to reduce their living standards? That's never going to
happen - it is you who needs to do that. The people in India will continue to
work towards improving their living standards, as they deserve to.

[0]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_di...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)

~~~
wtdata
> Good luck stopping us.

It's so sad that you don't even realize that:

1\. You are doming us all, you included.

2\. India will actually be one of the first countries to deeply suffer from an
increase in temperature.

> Guess why that happened? Because of illiteracy due to poverty - because of
> your colonising ancestors.

Mugal empire reaps the territory for over 400 years, nobody bats an eye.
British are there for 90 years... suddenly everything is their fault, even if
India continues with their totally backward ways 70 years after the British
left them to rule themselves as they see fit.

P.S.: I don't know why you continue to wave the anti USA flag. I have nothing
to do with the USA (or UK for that matter). So sad.

~~~
familysized
> You are doming us all, you included.

Nope. India's rise was always going to happen. It's not their fault if they
want to increase their living standards. Thus, India is not "dooming us all".

But if you are from a country that has high per-capita emissions (I'm assuming
you are from one) then your country is much more responsible for the problem.
So _you_ are dooming us all, because you can do something about it but you
choose not to (because of your selfish need to live luxuriously).

> India will actually be one of the first countries to deeply suffer from an
> increase in temperature.

That's the harsh reality, but we have to accept it. Because of the large
population, many will still survive. And I hope they then get to have the same
lifestyle enjoyed by others in the developed world. Being a massive country,
India has a lot resources and will prevail even after such a disaster happens.

> Mugal empire reaps the territory for over 400 years, nobody bats an eye.
> British are there for 90 years... suddenly everything is their fault

Another chance to educate yourself :) Please read [1]. Unlike British, Mughals
(not Mugals) stayed in India. So this did not really result in wealth flowing
out of the country.

[1] [https://www.quora.com/Who-hurt-India-the-most-the-British-
or...](https://www.quora.com/Who-hurt-India-the-most-the-British-or-the-
Mughals)

~~~
wtdata
> But if you are from a country that has high per-capita emissions (I'm
> assuming you are from one) then your country is much more responsible for
> the problem.

It's interesting that you expect someone in a country that has 1 brother and 2
children and 4x times more natural resources per capita (our population
density is 1/4 of a India's), to enjoy the same level of life of someone in
India that has 4 brothers and 3 children.

Now is my turn to say it: good luck with that.

~~~
dang
We've banned this account for proliferating flamewar on this site. That is not
allowed here.

[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html)

------
aduana
India just like any developing country needs outside funds to run projects.
Not easy, but that is just the way it is.

------
patientplatypus
Oh...and India is running of water.

[https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/27/india/india-water-crisis-
intl...](https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/27/india/india-water-crisis-intl-
hnk/index.html)

You don't know scary until 1.3 billion people all decide they have to leave
India at once or they'll die of thirst.

And India has nuclear weapons.

~~~
modi15
No its not. India has a ridiculous number of rivers and surrounded by ocean on
all sides.

What India is facing is distribution issues and there are already broadly
understood solutions to the problem.

~~~
aitchnyu
Many of the ridiculous number of rivers depend on disappearing glaciers and
worsening erratic rainfall patterns though.

