

What are the odds that you exist? - jaequery
http://visual.ly/what-are-odds

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js2
_You know, the most amazing thing happened to me tonight. I was coming here,
on the way to the lecture, and I came in through the parking lot. And you
won't believe what happened. I saw a car with the license plate ARW 357. Can
you imagine? Of all the millions of license plates in the state, what was the
chance that I would see that particular one tonight? Amazing!_

    
    
      -- Richard Feynman

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goodside
I just asked irb to generate me a random string of decimals, and it gave me
"95307035382862516268483317510515387284259666415834482486542336". Jesus, the
odds of that happening are like a gazillion to one!

~~~
eogas
It's a miracle!

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tikhonj
The probability that something happens, in a vacuum, is pretty meaningless.
It's just a number that changes based on evidence you have. For example, if
you knew nothing at all about the universe, the probability that the sun would
go up tomorrow could be extremely low. The probability of the sun going up
tomorrow given our knowledge of the world is much more meaningful.

A perfect example of how this is significant is the very first assumption:
while your dad may have met 20,000 women, the probability that he would date
and then marry your mother given his qualities and preferences in women is
most likely much higher than 1/20,000.

Another example: let's say we have a loaded die. If we don't know anything
about it, the probability of getting a 6 is 1/6. If we know it's loaded, the
probability is something else. Which value is correct? If it's the latter,
then wouldn't the probability of your being born really be something like the
probability of your being born given a bunch of environmental factors and the
like?

Basically, the number presented here is mostly devoid of value. That said, the
visualization is very good and gets its point across both succinctly and
clearly.

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Rhapso
I have always looked at this sort of stuff from a Bayesian probability point
of view. What is the probability I exist? 1.0, 100% because I am bothering to
ask the question, and the probability of my existence given my existence is 1.

Now comes the nasty part. What is the probability of your existence given my
existence? Most of that info graphic does not come into question, as anything
that went into making me can be assumed true. So it is higher then zero, but
it is certainly not bigger then the initial 1 in 400 quadrillion number.

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substack
Doing probability backwards like this is not useful and leads to fallacious
conclusions and magical thinking. How is this any different from people
running around misapplying quantum terminology for feel-good conclusions?

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icandoitbetter
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle>

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skurry
The odds that I exist, per my definition ("cogito ergo sum"), are 100%. It's a
cute idea, but it doesn't really make sense. It's like asking, what are the
odds that this pile of sand is structured exactly the way it is now?

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zdw
Wait until they discover `uuidgen`

Minds will be blown.

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orangecat
On the other hand, there are theories that the universe is literally infinite
([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiverse#Tegmark.27s_classifi...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiverse#Tegmark.27s_classification)),
in which case the probability that you exist is 1. Actually, an infinite
number of copies of you.

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joshzayin
While this is technically true, it's one _hell_ of a selection bias. Clearly,
my ancestors all existed and got together. If they didn't, I wouldn't be
reading that poster. So, I don't really see the point of it...

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dpcan
What is the possibility that ANY OF US exist AT ALL?

I think it's fair to believe that we are the only intelligent beings in all
the universe.

What are the odds that some form of life evolved the same way we did over
billions of years to form something as complicated as human beings? Probably
Zero.

I guess the odds would have to be the same that there are also beings FAR MORE
intelligent than us as well.

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romymisra
Great way to show such large numbers using a visualization. The problem with
large numbers is that it's usually hard to relate to them at all - which this
graphic overcomes to a large degree.

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sofal
Please. Excuse me while I estimate the probability that all the hair follicles
on my arm would be arranged in the way that they are now. Life is just so full
of miracles.

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gburt
The first line says that he meets 10,000 women, then the next line says
there's a 1 in 2000 chance that he has kids with a woman he meets... that
means he had 5 wives?

~~~
dpcan
No, I think it shows that there's a chance he'll have kids with a woman he
never meets... somehow.

Shouldn't there be a 1 in 1 chance that he'll have his kids with a woman he
meets?

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donaq
Well, you sort of have to consider that you already exist (or you wouldn't be
reading that chart).

P(I exist|I already exist) = 1

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majmun
nice chart for a T-shirt, but what is the meaning of calculating probability
of events that already happended. their probability is always 100%.

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keisarit
Why am I here?

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j45
Love it.

Another question someone asked me once was:

1) if 99% of a molecule is space

2) if 99% of a molecules atoms are space

3) if 99% of an atom's sub atomic particles are space

4) if 99% of quarks are space..

We exist?

Or are we just the energy exerted in the forces between tiny bits of matter?

:)

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pantero
I guess I am lucky!

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aMoniker
This is neat, but the odds that I exist are 1 in 1 since this is the only
possible permutation of the universe.

Go ahead, prove it isn't.

