

The PC isn't dead - dendory
http://dendory.net/blog.php?id=5087558c

======
alwaysinshade
I sort of touched on this in a HN thread a few days ago [1]. I don’t think
that mobile devices are successfully replacing conventional PCs, more so
replacing objects and knickknacks that were single function devices. For
instance, my wife uses an ipad to read books because she can take her whole
library with her wherever she goes and download new books while sitting on the
train. I use an app that turns my phones flash into a torch when I’m looking
for something in the dark. My ~2 year old nephew uses a drum and piano app on
an ipad to play instruments, and animated book-like apps for entertainment.
Buying these objects now would be for almost purely ornamental reasons. Little
things that we use each day whether for utility or entertainment are being
supplanted by multi-function mobile devices because 1. We take them wherever
we go and 2. Touch screens/GUIs are excellent for emulating objects.

The power of the app, I think, is in emulating small things – not replacing
dedicated, powerful tools.

<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4681135>

~~~
jcfrei
Spot on. I believe in the long run smartphones are going to replace a huge
part of what are now separate devices or utilities. Yet the pc might be the
only prevailing device because some functionalities cannot be emulated on a
smartphone.

------
nhebb
Someone please tell Microsoft this. They're trying to compete in everyone
else's market, while kind of forgetting about the one they dominate.

Developers wanted a linker for .Net; they never got one. Viable market
penetration of any given version of the .NET framework always lagged several
years between the latest available. They've churned through multiple desktop
development technologies in the past decade, and winforms, the only one that
will meet the needs of most the market (XP -> 8), is no longer being updated.
And, Visual Studio 2012 doesn't even have a built-in project deployment tool
for desktop apps, instead relying on WiX or outside vendors. I realize that
Microsoft can't tread water forever, but if the PC desktop does die, part of
the blame will lay at Microsoft's own feet.

------
ryannielsen
Steve Jobs at D8: ‘PCs are going to be like trucks’

Yep. Not dead, not by any stretch of the imagination, but certainly not as
ubiquitous as other devices.

[http://blog.seattlepi.com/microsoft/2010/06/02/steve-jobs-
at...](http://blog.seattlepi.com/microsoft/2010/06/02/steve-jobs-at-d8-pcs-
are-going-to-be-like-trucks/)

~~~
epsylon
The problem with every analogy is that it's always a simplifying (hence
flawed) method of reasoning. Especially here, where it is easy to remark that
there are not only two kind of motorized vehicles but a wide range of them.
From small city cars to full size SUVs, going through family cars, luxury
cars, sports cars, sedans, motorcycles and scooters, three wheeled cars...

Tablets are great for small, specialized tasks. They are great because they
are lightweight, have good battery life and can be manipulated simply.

However I can't help but think that they are not fit for every job, just like
a small city car isn't something you want of you have a spouse and three
children. Multitasking, for example, isn't practical on a tablet : I have yet
to see a tablet that allows me to chat with video or text while doing research
on the web or browsing my mail, for example. And doing these tasks
simultaneously isn't some kind of niche or power user activity. I could find
countless simple things which are as of today only doable on tablet by going
through much pain. Moreover, I think that one of the biggest advantages of
tablets is that because they're somewhat more intuitive, they can reach a
wider audience, notably people who are less computer- _literate_. But making
technology accessible to our elders or less educated people is a good thing,
but let's not forget that the next generations are born in technology and will
be more accustomed to using it in its various forms, including the more
"complex" PCs (which they will most likely have to use for their work anyway).

All in all, tablets and PC will both evolve, and the gap between them will be
filled in. We are already seeing bigger screen, keyboards, more powerful CPUs
/ GPUs on tablets (which is exactly what the core i3 MS tablet will be), and
on the other hand, lowered power consumption CPUs, better battery lives,
weight reductions and smaller, touch-sensitive screens on PCs (again, there
are a lot of products more or less matching that description).

I don't think the PC will die anytime soon.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Argument subverted. "PCs are no longer a growing market, and the PC market
will begin to shrink" != "PCs are dead." Ya, home PCs are not being replaced
as much anymore because we are using our iPads more on the couch or in bed, so
maybe I can replace that laptop every 4 years instead of every 2, and when was
the last time anyone turned on that desktop. And at work...they seem to be
replacing PCs left often also, so the PC market is definitely going through
some big "adjustments."

I'm completely computer literate and use my iPad exclusively when at home; I
have stacks of laptops that don't get any use anymore. Its just more
convenient to use for what I do at home, I will not be replacing my home PCs
for a very very long time. And...kids today will grow up using mostly iPads
and facebook, they won't experience the joys of a BASIC command prompt like we
did. Given the proliferation of canned content, they are unlikely to get their
hands really dirty with flexible/configurable computing until they reach
college!

------
jseliger
I've been arguing a variation of this for a while:
[http://jseliger.wordpress.com/2011/10/09/desktop-pcs-
arent-g...](http://jseliger.wordpress.com/2011/10/09/desktop-pcs-arent-going-
anywhere-despite-the-growth-of-phones-and-tablets%E2%80%94because-theyre-
cheap/) . The basic issue is simple: PCs are really, really cheap, and cheap
is good.

~~~
fpgeek
But will PCs _stay_ cheap?

If more and more people find it simpler and easier to satisfy their computing
needs with devices like smartphones and tablets, there could easily come a
point where economies of scale start working against PCs, accelerating a
decline into a niche "producer" device.

Personally, I think hybrid devices are likely to prevent that because they'll
be a better fit for the many users who primarily consume but still
occasionally produce, but that's a separate argument.

~~~
zanny
As long as Google exists, commodity hardware has a place on a massive scale
that can somewhat eclipse any decline in consumer sales by how datacenters are
using this stuff in massive deployments for server farms.

Also consider the ingredients of the modern PC. The chipsets and motherboards
are Intel / AMD, and Intel won't slow down since it basically owns business
workstations. AMD is kind of stuck. The motherboard makers already have entire
product lines of extremely niche products (see the x79 chipset) and sata disks
/ DDR memory are used in mobile devices, just at different form factors. They
still need wireless / usb controllers, maybe the cases get more expensive?

Point is, the two markets are very tightly coupled, and there is a diverse
enough pc component market that consumer demand dropping doesn't phase it
_too_ much. Worst case scenario is less R&D goes into high end parts since
there is less demand for them, which is already happening (look at Ivy Bridge,
barely upped performance but cut power consumption a ton).

~~~
epsylon
I think you are exaggerating Google's impact on commodity hardware — or even
the impact of the whole data-center-on-commodity-hardware trend. Estimates put
Google's server count around the million mark [1].

Worldwide PC sales are estimated about 320 millions, _per year_ , and more
than 1.5 billions PC are estimated to be in use currently [2].

[1]
[http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2009/05/14/whos-...](http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2009/05/14/whos-
got-the-most-web-servers/) [2]
[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000087239639044465780457804...](http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444657804578048981461803220.html)
and <http://www.etforecasts.com/products/ES_pcww1203.htm>

------
angusgr
A few weeks ago I would have largely agreed with the post, but recently I had
a bubble-bursting experience.

I'm currently in the middle of running an "Arduino for Beginners" workshop
series at our local hackerspace. We have 25 attendees, 24 of them are brand
new to the hackerspace. All the attendees are technically literate and
interested, but only one or two are programmers or heavily into technology.
Everyone brings their own laptop.

The first hour of the first session was almost entirely spent with everyone
setting up their laptop with the Arduino software. At least 3 of the attendees
took closer to two hours, both with weird Windows problems and driver issues
and random slowdowns, unexpected software alerts, etc. One took more than the
workshop's 3 hours to get running smoothly, her laptop finally deciding it
needed to install many dozen security updates.

All four of the people whose Windows computers caused them such slowdowns told
me "I barely ever turn this on any more, I just use my iPad/tablet and phone
at home."

This is purely anecdotal and it's a small sample size, could easily be non-
representative. But it did make me think, if I wasn't a geek and a hobby
programmer/tinkerer then I'd pretty much just do email & web browsing at home,
occasionally update/print my resume or write a small flyer. Would I need a PC?
Why would I bother to own one, especially if PC maintenance was of no interest
to me?

~~~
jseliger
>But it did make me think, if I wasn't a total geek and a hobby
programmer/tinkerer then I'd pretty much just do email & web browsing at home,
occasionally update/print my resume or write a small flyer. Would I need a PC?
Why would I bother to own one, especially if PC maintenance was of no interest
to me?

I think this embodies a larger distinction: Are you mostly a consumer or a
producer? The line isn't firm, but for someone who mostly consumes, a tablet
or equivalent makes total sense for the reasons you enumerate.

For almost anyone who produces or aspires to produce, however, I don't think
that laptop/laptop-with-docking-stations/desktop-style machines are going
anywhere, for the reasons that are being articulated throughout this thread. I
especially like the guy with four monitors. Personally, I only have two, but
one is very large, and even then I'd like to imagine that it's not the size,
but how you use it.[1]

Again, I don't think this distinction is hard and fast, so the person who just
wrote their own operating system, followed by a 1,000 page fantasy novel, on
their iPad can reframe the comment they're about to make. But I do think the
distinction serves a useful purpose in talking about where things are going.

[1]Technology porn photos, for interested parties:
[http://jseliger.wordpress.com/2012/09/23/the-geekdesk-
writin...](http://jseliger.wordpress.com/2012/09/23/the-geekdesk-writing-
space-post/) .

------
lmm
>Finally, let's look at something that may seem more like average people would
do

Yes, let's.

>I hate on-screen keyboards, all of them, and type much slower on them than on
a full size keyboard.

Same here - but we're both a lot faster than average people on a keyboard.

>And if you compare working with a mouse versus working with a touch screen,
again there's no comparison of speed.

Actually I find a touch screen much faster for most things. Has the author
tried it enough?

>Finally, my PC has a 19'' display, why go down to a 10'' or 4'' one?

Why not? It's not like you get more pixels on the 19" these days. Given two
same-resolution screens, I'll take the more portable one please.

>As for the cloud, I used Google Docs, but personally find it extremely
lacking. If you ever try to use a template, you quickly find out how broken
their system is. The templates they offer break all over the place.

"Average people" don't even know what a template is.

> ask any accountant or book author who tried to use online spreadsheets or
> word processors to do heavy duty work what they thought of it.

I wrote a novel in google docs. It was great. I especially liked the part
where one of the computers I was using broke halfway through and it made no
difference to me at all.

~~~
Retric
_Actually I find a touch screen much faster for most things. Has the author
tried it enough?_

No, increase your mouse sensitivity I can't physically move my hand as fast as
I move the mouse because the full screen is only 1 inch travel distance on my
mouse. Most of this is from playing games but high DPI mice on a good surface
are vary precise.

------
zyb09
I think at every workplace, where PCs aren't the main thing workers interact
with while working, but rather only assist them, tablets will eventually
replace PCs (for example hospitals, schools, workshops or retail). But if the
work consists of mainly interacting with a PC, tablets are by design inferior
and won't replace the PC.

------
batiudrami
The end game that I see, is that your tablet is your PC. We've had dockable
laptops forever - a dockable tablet that hooks up with your wireless mouse and
keyboard and your 27" monitor at home, and when you need to go you just pull
it out and have all your stuff with you, I think only a small step away.

Sure, the hardware isn't quite there yet (especially if you want to be able to
use it for gaming - gaming PCs are still monsters), but I think that's where
PCs are headed, and where Microsoft thinks they're going also. It explains the
surface, and Windows 8 perfectly - and if I (and they) are right, it gives
them a huge head start.

------
infinii
The "PC is dead" line is usually referring to general consumers. Obviously it
doesn't apply to power users (which are a very small %). For content creators,
a PC is still a necessity. For content consumers, mobile or tablets are
suffice.

The only argument OP makes that applies to general consumers is gaming, and
that can be moved to a console.

~~~
dendory
This is exactly the type of argument that doesn't hold. "tablets will suffice"
Why should someone go for something that will be inferior, and simply suffice?
"move to the console" Why would I want to play on a 7 year old console, which
means lower graphic games? Your definition of general consumers actually
applies to a very small amount, people who never do anything that could, in
some way, be better off on a larger display, full sized keyboard, and more
processor power.

~~~
alwaysinshade
> Why would I want to play on a 7 year old console, which means lower graphic
> games?

I think that's the reason why I love consoles - I haven't had to upgrade my
gaming machine since 2006. And looking at the games I've enjoyed in the last
12 months - Skyrim and MW3 (for purely multiplayer funsies) I don't feel like
I've missed anything having an ancient machine.

And don’t think I haven’t logged many hours playing either. A console doesn’t
mean I’m just casually playing games - I take a deep delight in sitting down
on my couch with a beer, dog by my side, and blapping annoying teenagers
online whenever I get the chance.

~~~
tsotha
>And looking at the games I've enjoyed in the last 12 months - Skyrim and MW3
(for purely multiplayer funsies) I don't feel like I've missed anything having
an ancient machine.

As a PC gamer this is what pisses me off. You aren't missing anything because
publishers won't write games that don't run on consoles. The graphics and CPU
power on my desktop dwarfs a console, but it's all wasted power.

------
scottscanlon
Also, I've got used to my 4 monitors... not sure I could give those up yet.

~~~
astrodust
What if the monitors themselves were computers of a sort and they could be
linked together in an arbitrary fashion, sharing resources transparently?

You're thinking of a PC as some box you plug things in to, but in the future
that could be as antiquated as the old mainframe.

~~~
scottscanlon
Now that would be sweet, or instead of my 4 monitors, I had the wall, and I
could scale, expand, place various screens in different placements. This
effectively is how we use multiple monitors now, at least I do. That would
solve it... although still need a way to hide certain browsers, tabs, etc.

~~~
commieneko
The joke back in the 80s was that what we really wanted was to buy 4x8 sheets
of monitor at the store and cut and panel as needed. Then one day my brother
said that he simply wanted a can of monitor paint ...

For an interesting short animated science fiction film that gives you a
glimpse of ubiquitous computer displays check out _Pale Cocoon_ :

<http://www.crunchyroll.com/pale-cocoon/episode-1-ova-1-20698>

------
Semaphor
> Web based productivity is only good for very simple tasks

There are some very nice LaTeX editors found online and they aren't that bad.

------
xiaolai
Wait... 1) Who said PC is dead? 2) Who cares?

------
bluedanieru
> _And if you compare working with a mouse versus working with a touch screen,
> again there's no comparison of speed._

If you're comparing touchscreens on the desktop with mice on the desktop, this
is certainly true. But touchscreen input on a tablet device holds up pretty
well against a mouse on a desktop. Maybe beats it.

~~~
thomasz
For what tasks? Call someone on Skype? Maybe. Change the order of two
paragraphs in a text, browsing hn or reddit? No way in hell

~~~
6ren
Exactly. I've tried selecting text on an iPad, and it's not easy. Maybe you
can perfect rolling your finger to do it, with practice, but it's not as
intuitive as a mouse _for precise selection_. Fingers are too big. Actually,
just having cursor keys on an iPad would be an improvement.

However... game console controllers are also not as good as a mouse, and yet
they now drive game sales and development.

~~~
ekianjo
> game console controllers are also not as good as a mouse

I guess you mean for FPS, only ? For platform games, for fighting games, these
controllers are perfectly adequate. The reason why console FPS have become
more popular on consoles than on PCs is simply associated to market share of
console hardware, big budget exclusive titles (Halo, Killzone, Gears of War)
and is not even remotely linked to how good the controls are.

