
That 1970s Feeling - hhs
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/next-global-recession-hits-the-supply-side-by-kenneth-rogoff-2020-03
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karatestomp
Funny, I was just thinking yesterday "I wonder if what's happening in this
cycle will get its own word when we look back on it from some distance, like
'stagflation'"

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation)

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hammock
Stock market melt-up is one I've heard.

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sfblah
The “central bankers’ bubble” is another one I’ve heard.

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jerf
I wonder how a Just In Time world will impact a "supply side" shock. Normally
I'm a bit of a critic of it for making it too easy to cut all the margin out
of the supply chain, but once a normal situation resumes and random chunks of
the world aren't under quarantine, I wonder if there wouldn't be a radically
different response to a supply shock. While there are still some limitations
on how fast things can move around (container ships, for instance, introduce
certain unavoidable latency), the logistics world of 2020 is very different
from the logistics world of 1970. The flow of supply and demand indicators
through the economy of 2020 isn't going to be like 1970.

(Note I'm not saying this will be no problem, or that it is certain disaster;
I'm wondering about how it will be different in any manner or direction.)

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zdw
Author of this doesn't know how to use Excel and published incorrect results
which were used as austerity justification by the politically motivated:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_in_a_Time_of_Debt#Metho...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_in_a_Time_of_Debt#Methodological_flaws)

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llpg
That was quite an interesting read... I was astonished by how awful their
response to the criticism was:
[https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/16/reinhart-
rogoff...](https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/16/reinhart-rogoff-
continued/)

Personally, that just killed his credibility.

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majormajor
I was waiting to read more about "how the next global recession may be unlike
the last two" and then... didn't find much actual detail beyond "prices could
go up a lot"? E.g., prices on _what_ precisely, or other information that
would be useful if anyone's wanting to prepare.

The "get rid of the tarrifs with China" conclusion also feels very
disconnected from the rest, since if the supply chain could be broken and
there's nothing from China to buy, the tarrifs are the least of anyone's
worries?

