

Losing the best player on a team can improve it - dangoldin
http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/23997/
Actual paper: http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0908/0908.1801v1.pdf
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dkarl
Unlike the Braess Effect for drivers, this is a phenomenon that a team can
collectively understand and overcome. After all, if all the players pretended
that the star was just an average player, the result would be better than if
he really was an average player.

And that isn't even the optimum way to handle it. In the pathological case, a
team is like a codependent spouse that obsesses over the star and contrives
ways to be dependent on him even in situations where he shouldn't be involved.
In the healthy case, a team collaborates to exploit their best player by _not_
depending on him. When the defense adapts to shut down their best scorer, his
teammates get more openings. Trivial example: when the defense double-teams
the best offensive player, the remaining offensive players get to play 4-on-3.
The presence of a stellar offensive player makes it _easier_ for his teammates
to score. The Chicago Bulls with Jordan were a great example. If it didn't
work for the Knicks with Ewing, don't blame the presence of the star. Blame
the coach and the players for not using him effectively.

Why a pro team would be unable to do this is perhaps a more interesting
problem. Properly coached high school teams understand this and can execute
it. Establish that Joe is an inside threat, then exploit the defensive
adaptation by scoring from the outside. A pro team with a thoroughly scouted
star gets to skip the "establish the threat" step and skip straight to
exploitation. Why can't they do it? Maybe it has something to do with the
Shane Battier article that appeared on HN several months ago -- if NBA teams
and players are obsessed with individual statistics, perhaps they think like
drivers in the Braess Paradox instead of thinking like a team.

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jwb119
Ewing Theory 101: <http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=1193711>

~~~
dangoldin
Thanks for the link, I just finished the arxiv paper and it refers to the ESPN
article.

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zach
Oh boy, Malcolm Gladwell must be 3,000 words into a new essay already. This is
right in his wheelhouse.

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v3rt
The article mentioned that closing main roads temporarily could have a similar
effect - could teams thus experiment with benching star players , or altering
plays to "mix it up" more, without actually losing the player? This would seem
to be the best of both worlds, by using the star optimally.

In general, this seems like a lesson to not focus so much on the "strongest
point", but try to squeeze out more returns from weaker points before
diminishing returns set in so heavily. E.g. - don't make your strongest
developer in a small team do _all_ of the hard work, even if his code is much
better than others'. His ninth hour of work is less productive than another
developer's second.

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jcl
This article reminds me of another posted to HN about a basketball player with
mediocre stats who greatly increased the effectiveness of his teammates:

<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=481392>

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akd
The shot fraction graph doesn't hold any water. Ray Allen's shot fraction is
likely to be the highest when his teammates are performing poorly -- thus he
has to take on more of the burden himself. The effect may not be due to him at
all, but rather that when 4 players are playing poorly, the team tends to
lose.

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dangoldin
Actual paper (maybe a moderator can point to it?)
<http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0908/0908.1801v1.pdf>

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callmeed
The key word is "can" ... I'm sure there are more examples of a team losing
their best player and getting worse.

Does anyone really think Davidson will be better next year without Stephen
Curry?

Also, "best player" is so subjective in sports like baseball and football
where players have specialized roles. Who is the Red Sox best player? You
could argue 3+ different people.

~~~
DannoHung
Perhaps Football would be applicable if you had a star receiver or running
back. Not sure about a QB getting taken out.

Perhaps in Baseball the first base position or maybe a DH or reliever?

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jpwagner
_"For example, the actions of the defense aren't modeled at all."_

That's where I stop reading...luckily it was near the end.

