
BMW’s EV roadmap detailed, includes full autonomy by 2025 - tambourine_man
https://techcrunch.com/2016/08/11/bmws-ev-roadmap-detailed-includes-full-autonomy-by-2025/?ncid=rss&utm_content=buffer86389&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
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cmurf
I put Ford's 2021 and BMW's 2025 and so on, into the autonomy is novelty
category; just like the Roomba (yes the robot vacuum cleaner). There is no
possible way in that time frame that either the software, or public
infrastructure, or laws and regulations, and insurance are all going to
magically go "full autonomy" in major cities, let alone outside of them, in
that time frame. We've been trying to do this with trains and planes for a
long time and while highly automated to a degree that might surprise some
people, they are not fully autonomous. And yet they don't have to share
infrastructure with significantly sized objects that not only don't use the
same software, but not even the same spec including fault tolerance.

And another reason why I'm gonna be a bit negative Nancy on this, is because
the entire software industry sucks when it comes to software updates. About
the best at it has been Apple and iOS. The worst is a toss up between the
automotive industry's own proprietary navigation systems (crap UI/Ux, crap
nearly non-existent ship it and forget it update) and mobile device
manufacturers. There will need to be software updates for more than a decade
for cars, to account for all the unknown unknowns as infrastructure and rules
all change, to account for interactions with other proprietary systems, as
well as humans. But this industry sucks at software updates.

Anyway, good luck with that BMW.

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vvanders
> But this industry sucks at software updates.

Except Tesla.

I think we're going to see a race from two ends of the spectrum: Can Tesla
ramp up production faster than traditional manufacturers learn how to build
software?

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etendue
I'd bet on the legacy manufacturers.

Musk has a reputation for firing senior managers that give him answers he
doesn't like, or that fail to meet his unreasonable demands. That level of
management meddling doesn't bode well for Tesla's manufacturing future. Nor
does "putting parts in the car knowing [they] are bad", if the accusation (by
a departed employee) is true. ([http://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-sets-
ambitious-goals-a...](http://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-sets-ambitious-
goals-at-teslaand-often-falls-short-1471275436)) I have previously questioned,
and still do, Tesla's PLM.

Legacy manufacturers do know how to do software, despite the general lousy
state of in-car entertainment systems arguing otherwise. They also know how to
manufacture a quality product at scale. It's an easier task for them to
bolster their software than for Tesla to learn what they already know about
manufacturing _and_ ramp up manufacturing.

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snewk
youre making the assumption that the software problems (not yet solved) have
easier solutions than the manufacturing problems (solved multiple times).

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rsync
Same old same old "EV roadmap" that we've been seeing since 2005 from
BMW/audi/porsche/etc. Just increase all the dates by four years and you can
re-release the same old press release over and over again.

Promises of actual EVs in (four years from now) while continuing to roll out
half-assed hybrid cars powered by ridiculous little lanwmower engines.

BMW is particularly guilty, given that their flagship "i" vehicle is not an EV
at all and contains a clownish three-cylinder engine.

Truly, a hallmark of technology.

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orourkek
I see the current crop of "half-assed hybrid cars" as a necessary step on the
road to EV market acceptance; Public charging infrastructure is not at an
acceptable level for the average consumer, so automakers found a way to
capitalize on the success of their existing ICE products and production lines,
while gradually introducing electric technology in a usable-in-the-real-world
package. Capitalism 101.

Furthermore BMW never claimed that the BMWi brand was exclusively EVs, nor
have they ever marketed the i8 as anything but a plug-in hybrid.

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ebbv
If BMW doesn't update the i3 significantly before 2022 they are going to be
left in the dust.

Chevy has the Bolt coming out this year which will offer 200+ mile range on a
EV w/no ICE.

Nissan has said they have a 35kWh Leaf coming out for 2017 which will boost
the Leaf to ~130 miles, with rumors that a 200+ mile model will be coming in
2018.

Plus Tesla is supposed to be coming out with the Model 3 in late 2017/early
2018 with 200+ mile range.

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orourkek
Valid points, but the i3 still has a niche in the market in that it's the only
series-hybrid offering out there. For certain buyers that's enough to tip the
needle, 200 mile range competitors or not.

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ebbv
Yeah I mean I loved my BMW and I would love to buy a BMW EV, but the i3 is not
in contention with the Bolt or the Leaf for me right now (and I will be
getting a new one in 2017.)

