

Cigarettes, damn cigarettes and statistics - Petiver
http://timharford.com/2015/04/cigarettes-damn-cigarettes-and-statistics/

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brianmcc
"Correlation is not causation", while true, is becoming a very tired response
to pretty much any suggested phenomenon here on HN. And it shuts down often
worthwhile "what if...?" conversations.

This is especially well put:

"We cannot rely on correlation alone, then. But insisting on absolute proof of
causation is too exacting a standard (arguably, an impossible one). Between
those two extremes, where does the right balance lie between trusting
correlations and looking for evidence of causation?"

~~~
raverbashing
That's what I was going to point out

"We should respect correlation but it is a _clue_ to a deeper truth, not the
end of our investigations."

It is a clue. It might mean nothing but it might lead onto something.

But of course a lot of people think they're smarter by quoting a phrase.

"Anecdote is not data" but it was anecdotes about people getting cowpox not
getting smallpox that led to the development of immunization.

~~~
brianmcc
Exactly. Perhaps it's time for a new catchphrase:

"Correlation not being causation does not require dismissal"

But it might just lead to:

"Correlation not being causation not requiring dismissal does not imply
truthiness"

and we're back where we started :-)

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jokoon
Sidenote about tobacco:

Each time I walk out in the city, and somebody is smoking around me and the
smoke reaches me, I feel like I need to hold my breath and change course to
absolutely avoid breathing that smoke. Feels like poison.

I guess it's psychological, but smoke seems to make me feel sick, even at low
doses. Even the smell of smoke from the neighbor's window will upset me.

I guess I either am a victim of anti tobacco ads, or that smokes is a real
legal poison that my body can't sustain.

~~~
collyw
Yet the traffic fumes won't bother you. I have seen a few places where they
say the pollution is equivalent to almost a pack of cigarettes.

[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/4401628.stm](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/4401628.stm)

~~~
ygra
I feel the same as GP, and it extends to pretty much all forms of smoke. Car
(or worse: scooter) in front of me while cycling often makes me choke and need
to slow down to catch my breath again. Incense works as well. In my case it's
very likely a psychological hypersensitivity, although given that smoke in any
form is rarely healthy it's not something I'd go to great lengths to fix.

~~~
collyw
Barcelona usually has a fair bit of wind, but when it stops blowing the
traffic fumes are terrible (as a cyclist). And I noticed that as a smoker.

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jeremysalwen
Interesting that Judea Pearl's work on inferring causality from data is not
mentioned. [http://bayes.cs.ucla.edu/BOOK-99/book-
toc.html](http://bayes.cs.ucla.edu/BOOK-99/book-toc.html)

~~~
pc2g4d
And don't forget the later "Causality" (2nd edition):
[http://www.amazon.com/Causality-Reasoning-Inference-Judea-
Pe...](http://www.amazon.com/Causality-Reasoning-Inference-Judea-
Pearl/dp/052189560X)

------
gwern
I like how every time someone tries to defend the status quo of swallowing
correlations pretty damn naively, they use smoking as an example; apparently
the best example dates from ~70 years ago, and they completely ignore the
continuous din of medical failures where correlative results failed to
transfer to randomized trials (most prominently, anything to do with diet).

