
Engraving is now reportedly the most automated profession - bilifuduo
https://qz.com/962427/what-its-like-to-be-a-modern-engraver-the-most-automated-job-in-the-united-states/?utm_source=qzfb
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Pamar
The article is interesting and I am glad to see some contrarian point to the
main "automation will destroy jobs" narrative but...

But I think that they are comparing apples to oranges here. The engravers have
not been "automated away" \- in their case technology _augments_ them, so it's
not like "I used to be an engraver but now I have lost my job to a robot" but
- as the article says "I am an engraver and thanks to technology I have to say
_sorry but I can 't do that_ ten time less often than before".

Same goes for office automation in general. Technology have augmented human-
unassisted output (well, in case of office automation a lot of that has been
wasted on futzing around with fonts and so on, but still...).

But I wonder what would happen if self-service engraving (via web interface,
at a fraction of the cost and with your item delivered by drone or automated
van in case of larger packages) entered the market, and if they would keep the
same level of enthusiasm about automation.

I wonder what would they say

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twoodfin
If demand for engraving remained constant, then a 10X improvement in
productivity for an engraver would actually eliminate far more engraver jobs
than the final switch to full automation.

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Kluny
As engraving got cheaper though, the demand for it would increase. So there's
no sense assuming that it will remain constant.

~~~
twoodfin
Sure. Just like farming over the last 150 years. Far fewer jobs, more food,
and that's great for essentially everybody.

I just don't believe there's some cliff of automation effectiveness where it
goes from a good thing to a bad thing. Greater productivity always means
making more for less.

~~~
milcron
It's always a good thing, plus the additional "bad" side-effect of less work
for the populace to do, driving down the price of labor.

As the price of labor trends downwards, some cohorts are going to have a
harder time selling their labor to pay for necessities: food, shelter,
healthcare, etc.

A good amount of these problems could be mitigated by a strong welfare system
and/or basic income.

~~~
thaumasiotes
> It's always a good thing, plus the additional "bad" side-effect of less work
> for the populace to do, driving down the price of labor.

The price of labor tends to be lowest in the lowest-productivity areas. And
there are good theoretical reasons for that to be the case -- high labor
prices tend to cause productivity increases as a way to avoid paying them,
_and_ productivity increases increase the value of labor, which would tend to
lead to higher labor prices.

When everybody was a pitiful subsistence farmer, barely producing more than
they needed to eat themselves, the price of labor was very low. And where
that's still true... the price of labor is still very low.

Can you point to a current or historical example of the price of labor going
down as productivity rises?

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Retric
Fast food, if you look at the output in meals or revinue at peak times they
can have extreme productivity, but they make less than a short order cook.
There are many similar areas where productivity is economically less valuable
than flexibility.

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FrozenVoid
The difference is they own the means of production. Many workers in automated
industries do not.

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christkv
Well great article however two noteworthy things to point out. Over the last
10 years the hourly wage has stayed the same meaning the workers have lost
purchasing power due to inflation.

If the prices of the product have gone up with inflation this just means a
bigger part of the pie has gone to the owners of the business. Pretty much
what one would expect with automation.

This is not a sunshine story, even if they attempt to paint it as one, and
that's before one contemplates full automation where no workers are involved.

~~~
Gys
> If the prices of the product have gone up with inflation this just means a
> bigger part of the pie has gone to the owners of the business

Labor costs are not the only costs. In most cases there is also material
involved and less tangible costs like rent, IT, external accounting, VAT
increase that could not be forwarded (a common problem in Europe), etc.

Running a business is not simple. For most companies its a struggle. One day
you win some, the next day you loose some. I have done well in the end, but I
know many that did not.

~~~
musgrove
Lord...the pie analogy. The OP thinks there's a limited amount of pie, which
is a novice error. The pie itself can grow while remaining proportional, which
is another scenario he didn't consider.

~~~
coldtea
And the thing your example doesn't consider is that in human societies wealth
is relative. We don't think a family living in a trailer is doing great just
because the average house in 1860 used to be worse and have less amenities (no
electricity for one).

Hence, it's not the volume of the slice one gets that matters but its relation
to the overall size of the pie (e.g. whether your share grew, not whether the
slice grew).

And the situation we have is that while the pie is getting larger, the common
people's slices are getting either only slightly larger (not as much as the
change in the pie size), and they need to work a lot than they did in the 50s
and 60s to get a basic slice.

In other words, the society produces e.g. 2x or even 10x more wealth, but they
only get, say, 2x larger share of that or worse, despite working harder than
ever.

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brownbat
> “It’s not like you’re employing fewer people,” says Rader, who has about 10
> employees, including his bookkeeper. “I can just do more things. I can tell
> fewer people, ‘sorry, I can’t do that.’”

That was refreshing to hear.

There was another more detailed treatment of automation's impact in the
Economist a while back, which mentioned graphic design, a similar profession,
where human jobs weren't replaced, tasks simply became redefined as designers
started using more computer aids to let them perform more complex work:

[http://www.economist.com/news/special-
report/21700758-will-s...](http://www.economist.com/news/special-
report/21700758-will-smarter-machines-cause-mass-unemployment-automation-and-
anxiety)

David Autor had a long academic survey of the topic, it's detailed and in-
depth, but a good read if you're interested in this area, with a fascinating
discussion of how we quadrupled the number of bank tellers after the invention
of the ATM, and the role of good governance in mitigating labor shocks due to
sudden increases in roboticization.

[https://economics.mit.edu/files/11563](https://economics.mit.edu/files/11563)

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NicoJuicy
Automation is doing no manual labor. Technical improvement's mentioned in the
article is not automation. It's the same as a accountant who uses software. He
can do more in less time

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zepto
This seems absurdity polyannaish. Surely it's obvious that the parts that are
currently done by people - laying out the design, and handling handling
awkward shaped objects - can and will be automated. Developing such technology
specifically for the engraving industry probably isn't cost effective and so
for now humans remain employable in this industry, but those jobs exist so
commonly across industries that it's inevitable that they will be automated
away in due course.

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Tokkemon
As a music engraver, someone who creates scores on computer, no longer on
metal sheets, I feel like my niche industry dodged a bullet here. But alas, it
is less about the literal engraving part and more about the design of the
graphics involved and new software like Dorico is a big step forward for
increasing the output of the average engraver leading to more scores in
general.

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averagewall
Massive survivorship bias here. They only interviewed engravers who haven't
lost their job so of course they're not hurt by it. What about those 6 guys he
didn't need to hire because of the machine? What about businesses which shut
down since the advent of machines?

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mgkimsal
Taking a job from 2 hours to 20 minutes is ... impressive, but, as someone
else pointed out, it's augmentation, not really completely automated.

I will not be surprised if Amazon offers drone-based engraving in 10 years;
you'll just have someone drop the headstone, and their drone will do the rest.

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evan_
Great idea. If the drone gets sloppy and the headstone hits someone, that's
just another sale.

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paulddraper
At that point, I think you give that one for free.

