
Are We in a Social Networking Bubble? - leepnet
http://rogerandmike.com/post/15563392521/technology-waves-and-valuations-are-we-in-a-social
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jjguy
_> For entrepreneurs, the key message is to be really careful about doing a
social networking startup in 2012. The social networking wave is about to
crest. There are very few ideas and opportunities in this space that aren’t
crowded. _

We take a too-narrow definition of social networking. If we want to find the
next big thing in the Internet, we need to take a step up the stack of
abstraction and think more broadly about connections.

Human beings are wired to connect. It's fundamental human nature, and the
subject of the still-new social neuroscience field. [1]

Evidence of this is pervasive throughout our culture. Relationships, marriage,
cities, tribes, fan clubs, Hacker News itself - _connecting_ in a meaningful
way with other people is what we do.

The Internet's success is it's ability to facilitate connections, making them
easier, more personal and more meaningful: email, IRC, instant messaging,
gopher, the web, facebook, twitter - it's not just facebook and twitter that
are "social networking," every successful Internet communications technology
has improved the state-of-the-art in allowing us to connect with each other.

So don't consider "what's next for social networking" -- or "the social
networking wave is about to crest." The label restricts your mind. Ignore
labels, think big. Consider human nature, relationships and how you can
connect us to each other in a more meaningful way. Perhaps you'll find the
essence of what the pundits will call 'web 3.0.'

1 - [http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2006/10/22/how-to-
read...](http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2006/10/22/how-to-read-a-
face.html)

~~~
moocow01
"The Internet's success is it's ability to facilitate connections, making them
easier, more personal and more meaningful"

I agree that the internet can better facilitate connections but in what regard
do you feel that the internet has made interpersonal relationships more
personal and meaningful? In my opinion it has done dramatically the opposite.
In fact Id argue that the internet doesn't have a role in having a personal
and meaningful relationship with someone.

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DougN7
Agree completely. I think the quantity of our relationships have gone up,
while the quality seems to be going down.

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ImprovedSilence
Honestly I think this line of thinking is a load of baloney. Creating
meaningful personal relationships is up to you, not some internet site. You
can still call, send a letter, show up at a door, grab a bite to eat, get some
drinks, take a walk in the park, play stickball in the street. It's up to
_you_ to maintain close relationships. Granted, it's impossible to have "1430"
close friends like on FB, but it's not bad having a wider, loose connection
with thousands of people ontop of that.

Also, it's still up to you to call your mom, meet up with old old friends once
or twice a year, go out to your hometown bar the night before Thanksgiving.
Facebook doesn't take away those "moments you'll never remember with the
friends you'll never forget." It just lets you keep in touch with those who
might otherwise have dropped off the face of the earth. Don't blame some
"social media". Also, kids these days, are just kids, let them socialize, it's
probably not any worse than video games or TV, and you can't stop adolescent
girls from gossiping, even if you take away their text messaging.

~~~
moocow01
That actually is an interesting point. I agree with you pretty much completely
from an individualistic perspective - you are responsible for maintaining your
own relationships and Facebook is not forcing your relationships onto a
digital wall.

I think the only contradictory point Id make is that Facebook (and other
networks) makes it convenient to get lazy and boil more of your relationships
down to just being digital which likely degrades the meaningfulness and
quality of a relationship. For example, talking to or going out with a friend
is many times triggered by wondering how that friend is doing or whats new.
Facebook removes or degrades that trigger in that you can find out whats new
with your friend through their profile without any interpersonal contact.

Now (while again I completely agree that we as individuals are responsible for
ourselves) on a macro level when you have billions of people being nudged
toward this direction Id say it does create a pretty significant impact on the
overall level of quality relationships within our society.

~~~
dkubb
A friend told me one time about a theory he read about, that has to do with
how the brain interprets goal accomplishment with sharing your goals.
Apparently, the idea is that if you go around telling people about your goals
the brain gets the same kind of "high" as if you had actually accomplished
them. This diminishes the likelihood of you completing them because in your
mind you've already gotten the benefit and the rest is just a lot of extra
effort.

I wonder if it's the same thing with Facebook and other social networks. By
"socializing" on FB the brain gets the same kind of high as if you had
actually spoken to the person, thus making you feel satisfied with the social
interaction so you don't seek them out.

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larrys
"In the early phases of a technology wave, massively powerful gathering forces
exist below the surface, but only a handful of visionary technologists,
entrepreneurs, and investors really see what’s starting to happen."

As someone who might be considered "visionary" in that I bought many domain
names way back in the non-obvious mid 90's I don't even agree with what this
statement says.

You think something is going to happen and you take a gamble that you are
right and try to limit your downside risk. If you knew you were going to be
right you would gamble even more. But rest assured that for that gamble to
work out many things would have to happen and the payoff is certainly not
quick and certain. Most importantly if enough people take enough chances in
different areas statistically some are going to be correct in their
assumptions because of things beyond their control and many will fail for the
same reason.

And statements like this stating that you should stay away from the froth and
"Generally, [you] are better off finding the next gathering wave and a blue
ocean of opportunity" are worthless. Essentially find something new to gamble
on and you might be the one that guesses correctly about the new new thing. If
it were only that easy. It's not.

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feralchimp
All other things being equal, yes, it's better to get in on the next thing
early than to get in on the current thing late.

But the variables that go into a) when you came up with your idea and b) how
convinced you are that the idea is worth pursuing are Not Independent of the
wave functions discussed in the article!

Part of the reason you're convinced that your social networking idea is sound
is that there are concrete examples of successful businesses operating in the
space.

At the end of the day, you either believe in your idea's potential to create
value for investors in virtue of creating new/increased value for users, or
you don't.

If you do, go for it and live with the wave phase you're dealt.

If you don't, waiting around hoping to pitch it in Next Thing terms probably
isn't going to help you.

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InclinedPlane
Yes, but no.

Let's remember that "social networking" is a very, very big thing. In essence
it is the foundation of most major communication networks, including the old
phone network and the modern internet. It is more than just the little windows
into socialization and networking that twitter, facebook, linkedin, etc.
represent.

People trying to make the "next facebook" or twitter or what-have-you are
going to have problems due to the saturation of very capable competition. But
that doesn't mean we've plumbed the depths of facilitating social interactions
through software, there's still plenty of room for innovation and disruption.

~~~
randomdata
I agree with you. To me, Facebook's success has been from their ability to
become the internet's "telephone book."

You're probably going to have a really hard time building a better telephone
book, but the telephone book didn't stop email or any later forms of
communication from coming to be.

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fufulabs
Google, Facebook, iPhone, Android, Tumblr, etc. had markets that seemed all
stitched up (i.e. search, social network, smartphones, iOS dominated
smartphone market, blogging).

I would hazard a guess that in 2012-2014. Facebook would have taught the mass
market of the concept of social network and grease up adoption of more
specialized ones thereby widening the addressable userbase for players that
have a great product.

We can see this happening with Instagram, Pinterest, Etsy, Reddit which are
all social networks with 1 or few social objects at the center.

For example, Facebook has 800M and Instagram has 15M. thats 1.8%. I would
guess that as Facebook gets more and more bloated - that ratio (1.8%) will get
bigger as more & more users will need a more insular group and specialized
features. In turn, niche social networks will have a higher ceiling of XX% of
800M/1B total social-network-exposed people (courtesy of Facebook - the social
network gateway drug so to speak)

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alain94040
Worth reading, from someone who has a bit more insight than your average
blogger.

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rhizome
I hate to go Napoleon Dynamite, but you can't know from inside the bubble. The
question to ask is whether there is anything for social networking to grow
into? What are its horizontals and verticals?

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dreamdu5t
No more "bubble" talk until you actually define what you mean by "bubble."

~~~
leoedin
Did you read the article? The author defined quite clearly how they thought
the overvaluing and market correction (ie bursting of the bubble) would
progress. They even made a graph!

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djbender
before reading: emphatically yes.

