

Report: The iPad won’t go mass market anytime soon - whyleym
http://eu.techcrunch.com/2010/05/12/report-the-ipad-wont-go-mass-market-anytime-soon/

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mediaman
I recently went to work at a local cafe for a few hours over the weekend. It's
a cafe that is well situated for people to grab coffee and a snack, and then
sit down to get some work done.

What was striking to me was that I saw no fewer than three people pop open
their iPads and work for a few hours. And I'm not in the Valley.

To add to this, on my last business flight last week, I noticed two middle-
aged businesspeople with their iPads in their laps while I walked down the
aisle.

I don't know what definition of "mass market" the researchers are using, but
when you see multiple people casually use the same device in a random coffee
shop, and random businesspeople on a flight popping open the same device, it's
tough to argue it's not getting widespread adoption.

The market may have proven this report wrong before the proverbial ink was
dry.

~~~
spudlyo
I thought the same thing. For mother's day I got my 79 year old mother an
iPad, and so far she really loves it. I don't think I've ever seen her this
excited about a gadget. While I was at my parent's place for mother's day, I
got a chance to talk to my other siblings, who called. Turns out my older
sister also bought one and loves it. My mom and sister spent most of the call
talking about it.

~~~
mikeleeorg
These anecdotes remind me of the videos & articles of young children, teens,
and grandparents (and pets) using the iPad. They are definitely interesting
examples of possible early majority[1] members adopting this technology -
though perhaps it's more telling to look at the buyers of the technology (who
are probably early adopters) than the recipients of it.

My own experience in a suburban area of Southern California is that I have yet
to see someone using an iPad. That doesn't mean it's a failure anymore than
seeing it in a cafe mean it's a success, of course.

I think more time has to pass, and more data needs to be collected, before
anyone can declare the iPad a true success or failure with the mass market.

[1] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_lifecycle>

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yardie
Unfortunately, sales receipts and investment firms don't share your reticence.
What is mass market anyways? is it 1 million? 100 million? 1 billion sold? If
the mass market was just techbloggers you might be right, but now they are
looking like the new Cmdr Taco iPod review.

The mass market are people like my family and friends who don't know what it
does but know they have to have one. I don't need one and I plan on getting
one. Just waiting for v2, Apple has a history of v1 bugs I'd rather avoid.

If anything, Apple has already established the long tail. They've got apps and
add-ons. It's hard to find an alarm clock without an iPod dock these days. j/k

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chime
> “everything it does I can do on my PC or my phone right now.”

Right. But when your PC gets a virus/hardware-failure or your phone keypad is
too small to type up a paper, what would you buy? Maybe not this current
version of iPad but eventually the only computer my parents will use/buy will
be an iPad or a very similar device. It will be something that works like iPad
Wifi (3G not required), will connect to cameras, printers, and have live video
chat features.

If it runs Farmville, it addresses every single use-case for my parents. And
since it will be easy enough to move around the house, they will love it. I
bought them an iPad Wifi for now but hopefully will get them the iPad + USB +
Camera device sometime in the near future.

~~~
ajscherer
The article isn't asserting that people won't like an iPad if you buy it for
them. It is asserting that (most) people like your parents won't decide to go
buy an iPad.

Were your parents planning to buy an iPad anyway, or did you buy it for them
because you believed they wouldn't figure out that they wanted it?

~~~
chime
You're right in that regards. My dad had read all the newspaper articles (in
Kolkata, India) about the iPad and based on the tech-journalists'
observations, decided that the iPad is a toy and can't do anything useful.
When I told him I am thinking of buying an iPad for my mom for her birthday,
he said "No! iPad sucks. Just buy us a regular laptop."

I explained to him that for the first time in the history of computers, there
is now a low-priced portable computer that he doesn't need me to fix or setup.
It won't get viruses, it is easy enough that my grandma can use it, and it
just works like the iTouch that he is so familiar with. Suddenly it clicked in
his head. He asked "So this will let me go to Gmail, Facebook, all the news
sites?" I said yes. "And this will have games that your mom can play all day?
And it will let us read your blog and see your photos? All of it wirelessly?"
I said yes.

He said "Ok. Get two then." I said it doesn't have webcam yet so I'll give you
one now and next year or so when it gets a webcam, I'll buy two. You'll get
one and I'll keep one and we can video-chat from our sofas across the world
(I'm in Florida). He was happy with that.

I think the real problem is that even though most tech-journalists aren't
programmers or engineers, they still align their interests with the techies
and try to think like Slashdotters: "No wireless. Less space than a nomad.
Lame." Good journalists see through the different layers and can more
realistically describe a technology for what it's worth. Yes, it sucks that
the iPad needs a regular computer before it can even be turned on and it sucks
that the iPad doesn't have a webcam. But think about it. Dynabook is finally
here: <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynabook> and it has a LOT more software
applications available than you could imagine. My dad doesn't care about USB
or even true multitasking. He just wants to go to a website, listen to music,
and play a game or two. iPad is a true consumer electronic product. A laptop
is not.

~~~
nooneelse
It is a wonderful step forward to be sure, and it is probably a great fit for
your parents and numerous other uses. But can you please not bastardize and
hollow out, in this "good journalist" zeal, the soul of the Dynabook ideal.
Not reduce that concept in service of making sound better this product which
uses, as fall-back position number one, in response to any criticisms, the
line "but it is for content consumption". This device could have been, and
still could be (if it were allowed) the embodiment of that ideal. But Apple
has held it back from crossing that line.

Maybe I'm being crotchety here, I can see that possibility. Maybe this coffee
buzz and this morning's urge to hold on to some piece of naïve idealism is
leading me astray, but there was something deeper in the ideal of the
Dynabook. Something noble and in line with the best of humanity in the
intention to free every individual to use the computer as an expansion of
themselves. Not just the narrower vision of the next step in couch-potato
consumption along controlled and approved channels. Do the journalists' eyes
not see the difference? Can't you?

------
bradleyland
I wasn't going to buy an iPad either. I'm a gadget geek, so I had all the same
feelings about the iPad that are outlined in the article. "It's just a big
iPhone," I thought. And I already had an iPhone, so why bother? Then release
date went by and I was sitting around using my tiny iPhone when I finally
realized: it sure would be cool if this thing had a bigger screen.

I went out and picked up an iPad, and I'm glad I did. People are wrong when
they say "it doesn't do anything my PC won't do right now." Your PC doesn't
fit in your hand. I owned a netbook for a short time as well. It's light, it's
small, and in a lot of ways it's similar to the iPad, but it still follows the
laptop format. By consequence, it's most comfortable on your lap. When I hold
my iPad I hold it at right at my sternum; just like you would a book. When I
used a netbook I'd try resting in the same location, but netbooks get pretty
warm, and it quickly becomes uncomfortable. The laptop form factor just isn't
built for casual consumption. They're built for a desk.

I agree with the assessment that the iPad won't go "mass market" any time
soon, but Apple has a long history of not caring about "mainstream". They only
care about making a good margin on a reasonable number of units. Mission
accomplished.

I'm hoping that more companies will roll out touch-based devices in a tablet
form factor. All Apple-fanboy-ism aside, I think the form-factor is incredible
exciting for personal computing. I'm finally untethered from my desk, and most
importantly, REALLY comfortable when using a computer in my comfy chair.
Unlike Apple, I'm not principally opposed to Flash. I'm principally opposed to
sacrificing good battery life, heat, and performance to Flash, but I think the
recent spat with Apple has lit a fire under Adobe. I won't hesitate to jump
ship when a better touch-tablet comes along.

------
melling
I had to order one online because all 4 Apple stores in Manhattan, and the
closest store in NJ, are sold out. I originally thought they would only sell 5
million in the first twelve months. Now I'm guessing 12-15 million. Let's see
what happens once you international units ship. 50 million units in 3 years?
Mass market? I guess it's hard to be held accountable if they don't define
exactly what they mean.

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pmccool
> It occupies too much territory already covered by > smartphones, PCs,
> laptops and traditional media.

For me, the question isn't whether it covers territory already covered by
existing electronic devices like netbooks or what have you, but whether it
covers a significant amount of the territory covered by _paper_. Can it
substitute my A4 notebook, or my diary, that's what I want to know. It won't
be the same, but will it be as good or better, all told?

As a substitute for a PC, netbook or smartphone, it's compromised in
important, possibly fundamental ways. I don't know if it is similarly
compromised as a paper substitute. If not, mass market acceptance awaits.

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FluidDjango
Interesting how the TechCrunch article cites the "qualitative research" of
simpsoncarpenter.com -- whose site my grandmother would _never_ navigate to
find whatever article Mr. Carpenter wrote about the iPad. I guess he knows
about what "won't go mass market anytime soon" from his own example.

For HNers purposes, _quantitative_ research might be more significant. Me, for
example. I don't care whether an iPad has no place in _my_ work/personal life.

I _do_ care whether enough (quantitatively) people are purchasing/using iPads
to influence my business decisions about how I target my app development work.
(I know, I'm a mercenary SOB, right?)

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mml
As an owner, I can say that it's only substantial drawback for me, is the
inability to access or manipulate shares of any kind. Seeing the world through
the iTunes keyhole is infuriating.

I have several hundred gb of media on AFP and cifs shares, and I hate that I
have to drag out the lappy to move them around, or even view them. On the
upside, lacking cell juice makes cracking the iPad much more attractive than
the iPhone.

~~~
bradleyland
I know how you feel, and you should still be backing this horse. The better
the iPad does, the more likely it is that other manufacturers will create a
touch-based tablet. Android is probably the best hope for a geek-friendly
touch-tablet in the near future. We just need a manufacturer with a commitment
to quality to produce one. Most of what we've seen so far has been junk.

------
evo_9
These are the same flawed reasons the iPad wasn't going to be a huge hit in
the US and we've seen how well those predictions worked out.

------
glhaynes
People can make theoretical arguments all day long, but nearly every person
that's seen my iPad has been interested in it, hesitantly asked if they could
pick it up, then stood there and played with it for as long as they could,
usually just saying "wow". Often punctuated with "I'm gonna buy one of these."

If Apple can continue to get these things into the hands of ordinary people
(and from reports about how many people are playing with them at their retail
stores, they're accomplishing that), they'll continue to sell amazingly well.
I've _never_ seen a product sell itself as easily as iPad does, including the
original iPod and iPhone.

~~~
protomyth
The whole store strategy makes sense based on what your saying. They got the
traffic and a good setup for demoing.

//my Dad bought 1 for himself. It is the first "computer" my Mom has used (MLB
app)

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angelbob
The iPod isn't trying to go mass-market by exposing a focus group for a short
time. It's trying to go mass-market by exposing a minority of vocal
earlyvangelists and having _them_ show people why it's useful.

So far it's working really, really well. The question is just whether they can
keep it up -- if the use cases continue to be interesting and compelling to,
say, 10% of the population rather than just 1% of it.

Still too early to tell.

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MWinther
I believe one of the most important ways for this to fit into people's lives
is by seeing others (especially non-tech people) using it. So yeah, it'll take
a while. I get the same kind of feeling as when the white headphones were
starting to appear, though.

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robryan
I think I'd fall into the impulsive group, have a desktop/ laptop/ netbook/
decentish phone but still could see myself buying the ipad if I had a bit more
money currently.

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perpetuity
Here is a clue: TechCrunch is a technology reporting tabloid. This article is
click bait. Prognostication at this level is no better than picking lint from
your navel.

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sabat
This reminds me of the initial opinion of the telephone 100+ years ago: nice
toy, but it has no practical business purpose.

