

Luck is not a Factor - duggieawesome
http://heartmindcode.com/2013/09/03/luck-is-not-a-factor/

======
mpyne
While I firmly believe that one helps 'make their own luck', saying that
chance/luck/fate/what-have-you plays _no_ role is silly at best.

At worst, it tends to convince 'winners' that they had almost everything to do
with their victories, and correspondingly that the 'losers' also bear almost
all of the blame for their defeats. It's easy to say that someone should have
simply worked harder when you didn't notice that they had to work hard simply
to escape the grasp of bad luck and circumstance to limp to the starting
line...

------
iamwil
So the OP says that a lot of little experiences add up to being able to divine
the tiger in the brush.

My question is, how do you get that sixth sense? As far as I can tell, there's
no shortcut. You have to do a lot of things, and see a lot of different
scenarios, and get burned along the way. The only one I can think of is to
talk in confidence with people more experienced than you in a particular arena
as scenarios arise.

Has anyone else found another way to build or harness a sixth sense that the
OP is talking about?

~~~
marcosdumay
From my experience, whatching people around me, there is no shortcut, but most
people take needless long paths, doing lots of circles and going back from
time to time.

Just telling them that it is worth something to go forward is a huge help.

------
Fuzzwah
"The more you know, the more luck you have."

[http://quoteinvestigator.com/2010/07/14/luck/](http://quoteinvestigator.com/2010/07/14/luck/)

------
AznHisoka
Luck is not a factor.. except when it comes to getting hired by your dream
company, getting venture capital, getting acquired, and getting a hot girl to
say "Yes".

~~~
outworlder
And is any of that... "luck"?

What about the qualifications you had in order to be hired by the dream
company? What skills and networking have you had previously before being able
to convince VCs? If that hot girl said "yes", doesn't it mean you had to
approach her first and manage to convince her?

There are thousands of opportunities passing us by every year. But we are only
prepared to recognize a handful and even less prepared to take advantage of
them.

Now, the specific circunstances that lead to, say, Instagram's acquisition can
be called "luck", in hindsight. But they were in a position to take advantage
of the deal, it is not as if they just found a lottery ticket on the street.

~~~
mpyne
> What about the qualifications you had in order to be hired by the dream
> company?

Qualifications (and really, all the stuff you mention) simply punch you a
ticket to the race. But those things don't _give_ you victory, and you often
don't even know or get a chance to compete on many of the other factors that
get you chosen (consciously or unconsciously).

E.g. the 'hot girl', if you're 5'8" and she prefers a guy who is 6'2", good
luck "working hard" to overcome that. The same applies in reverse, how many
girls have been rejected because they are flat-chested or have the 'wrong'
hair color?

How many otherwise qualified candidates have been rejected because they didn't
have the right 'intangibles'? How many people have screwed up networking
because they ordered the wrong kind of drink? How many pitches have gone awry
because a carefully-rehearsed presentation team had the pitchman get sick in
the hotel? Sure, you could wear an anti-microbial mask to try to prevent that,
but at some point luck will track you down.

Operational Risk Management isn't about _eliminating_ chance, it's about
_mitigating_ it. But in the end you're still crossing your fingers, and that
applies everywhere in life.

------
gcatalfamo
I loved the storytelling, but I won't comment to avoid spoilers! well done sir

------
presidentender
I really want to read Rodney's blog post.

------
auggierose
You have two options: You can either believe in Luck, or in Faith. Choose your
poison.

~~~
lutusp
> You have two options: You can either believe in Luck, or in Faith.

That's called a false choice, but I think you knew that. :)

