

One step closer to a two-hour marathon - drekaus
http://strata.oreilly.com/2013/11/one-step-closer-to-a-two-hour-marathon.html

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clarky07
Interesting article, and I think a 2 hour marathon is certainly doable. I
mean, 3 minutes in a 26.2 mile 2 hour race seems like if someone just has a
great day they can do that. That being said, I'm not sure I agree with his
analysis of the data. The section of graphs that he says are all straight
lines, looks to me like several of them are curves going to a plateau.

We can always get better, but at some point there is a soft limit. Someone can
always do a little better, but I think we can all agree that there won't be
any 30 minute marathons any time soon. Suggesting that gaining 3 minutes in
30-40 years is simply linear progression seems kinda silly to me. I wouldn't
be surprised to see a 2 hour marathon tomorrow.

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gizmo686
His conclusion is contingent on the continued exponential growth of the runner
population. Obviously, this growth itself is not sustainable, but it seems
plausible that it will end before we start hitting the wall of human
performance.

