

July 2013 Mattermark Startup Index – Top 20 Startups by Stage of Investment - dmor
http://mattermark.com/july-2013-mattermark-startup-index-top-20-startups-by-stage-of-investment/

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rdl
I haven't heard of 3/4 of these (particularly no-known-funding, but even many
of the the Series D+). I wonder if that means it's an effective index,
surfacing things outside my "bubble", or if there's a problem with the
selection process (or a problem with my perception of the industry, which is
pretty focused on security and b2b, but I do use b2c stuff and have a pretty
good memory for new services.)

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not_that_noob
dmor - nice work. Is it possible to backtest your algorithm? Would it be
possible to use wayback or something similar, go back two years and see what
the algorithm predicts, and compare to actual? I'm sure this has predictive
abilities, but wondering how strong it is.

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dmor
I'm actually not sure it is predictive yet, but I am not sure how much that
matters. It is more useful for validating reality as it currently is today -
startups are anything but reliable when it comes to generating consistent
growth. I would imagine the later the stage, the closer to predictive this
becomes but I wouldn't make any future claims on outcomes based on this. I
think you could probably use it to determine the next round of funding though,
so it is useful in the short term.

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ares2012
The problem with this index is that it ignores B2B companies whose traction is
not publicly visible. Companies like Box, Cloudera and others whose services
are consumed by other companies under-index. For example, there is no way
23andMe would top Box.

