

The B&N fallacy - mikecane
http://www.baldurbjarnason.com/notes/the-bn-fallacy/

======
Turing_Machine
"Anybody who thinks that a 300–400 dpi 4–5 inch smartphone isn’t a first class
reading device hasn’t laid their hands on one."

I have an iPhone with Retina display.

I still read on my eInk Kindle.

~~~
bryanlarsen
I've got a Kobo e-ink device, an iPad 1, a Nexus 7, a Nexus 4, and a Nexus
Galaxy.

The best device for reading novels IMO is the Nexus Galaxy. Most of my reading
is done in bed, lying down, and for that the OLED screen and one-handedness of
the small device wins by far. OLED is a lot better than LCD in the dark
because there's no backlight glow.

In bright light the eInk is obviously a better screen, but I still believe
that a 4.5" screen is a better size for reading novels than a 6" one.

~~~
NoPiece
One advantage of a dedicated e-ink device is the lack of distraction. I go to
bed with my iPad and end up checking email, browsing the web, playing a game.
I go to bed with my kindle, and I actually get some reading done. The
Paperwhite also works great in the dark.

------
SeoxyS
I stopped reading when the author wrote:

    
    
        > Anybody who thinks that a 300–400 dpi 4–5 inch
        > smartphone isn’t a first class reading device
        > hasn’t laid their hands on one.
    

The author's inability to understand how the experience of reading on paper,
e-ink, and a smartphone differ automatically nullifies any analysis he might
have had.

~~~
cpleppert
Well the author doesn't understand a lot; he wanted to talk about a quote but
it doesn't help when you aren't right on the technology. The suggestion that
B&N needs to focus on building a better a ebook reader and should license
someone else's is downright strange. No one buys ebooks because the quality of
the application on their smartphone isn't very good, buy them because of the
content network behind them. Additionally, the author doesn't understand an
ODM can't license what you have built to someone else. One of the advantages
that Kindle and Nook have over other tables is their builtin content
distribution network. That is the reason they can offer the tablet at all at
the prices they do.

~~~
Terretta
> _The suggestion that B &N needs to focus on building a better a ebook reader
> ... is downright strange._

Most people misread the article. That point was something he said others have
said, AND IS WRONG.

Please read the sentence AFTER those bullet points:

 _Those are all good but I’d argue that doing this wouldn’t solve B &N’s
problem in the long term._

His real bullet points are later.

~~~
danielweber
_Most people misread the article._

If "most people" misread something, the problem is very likely in the article.

~~~
Terretta
Yes, those bullet points were quite poorly introduced.

------
habosa
I don't see any market evidence to support these statements. The Kindle, Nook,
and ereaders in general have sold like crazy. Many people can and will read on
smartphones/tablets, but almost nobody prefers long-form reading on a backlit
device to an ereader (that's excluding comics and textbooks).

As Amazon continues to push the price frontier lower and lower, the ereader
will become practically an impulse buy. One can already purchase an Amazon
Kindle, the top name in the business, for $50-70. That's 1/3 the price of the
cheapest decent tablet.

People make comparisons to the iPod, how it was the best dedicated music
player before it, too, was cannibalized by the smartphone. And the same goes
for the low-end point and shoot. However the ereader is different in that it
is based entirely upon a technology (eink) which has made nearly zero
appearances in other devices. Until there is a tablet that can switch to eink
mode, there will always be a market for dedicated readers.

As for Barnes and Noble, it's never easy to compete with Amazon and as far as
I'm concerned that's all there is to it.

~~~
sarvinc
"Many people can and will read on smartphones/tablets, but almost nobody
prefers long-form reading on a backlit device to an ereader (that's excluding
comics and textbooks)."

I agree that e-ink is probably superior for reading but it's going to get
harder and harder to find customers who _only_ want to read on their devices.

"As Amazon continues to push the price frontier lower and lower, the ereader
will become practically an impulse buy. One can already purchase an Amazon
Kindle, the top name in the business, for $50-70. That's 1/3 the price of the
cheapest decent tablet."

True but the price point of other devices will also become impulse buys so
ereaders will still be competing with tablets etc.

"People make comparisons to the iPod, how it was the best dedicated music
player before it, too, was cannibalized by the smartphone. And the same goes
for the low-end point and shoot. However the ereader is different in that it
is based entirely upon a technology (eink) which has made nearly zero
appearances in other devices."

Right, iPod was based on a different technology (digital media) and the point
and shoot was based on a different technology (digital image capture).
Smartphones/tablets added both and now those markets are diminishing. How does
this make ereaders different?

------
glesica

      > Changing that would require firing everybody who 
      > currently works on the Nook and building a new, 
      > isolated and insulated, business unit elsewhere, 
      > preferably on the other side of the continent, 
      > and treat it like a well-funded startup.
    

Isn't that exactly what B&N did when they created the original Nook? I can't
find a link, but I'm pretty sure that they literally set up shop in California
and designed the thing like a startup.

~~~
Macsenour
You are correct

------
cpleppert
The author structured his article as a rant and it shows, so I won't respond
to every point. The central premise of his post is that B&N is in an
innovators dilemma situation and will find it impossible to build ereaders.
Then the author suggests it should build a reading app instead and just plow
all its resources into that. Except it would have no content network behind
it. Ergo:

>>Or, if B&N can talk publishers off the DRM ledge and onto the watermarking
perch, they could just switch to using iBooks when on iOS and have a book
delivery app that doesn’t do anything but notify people when new books are
ready to be copied into iBooks.

Wow, why isn't this guy CEO? So in other words Amazon and B&N should get rid
of their delivery networks and build a better reading application that will
compete against apple which has:

1) a device 2) a content delivery network 3) a proprietary delivery format
that they can add new features to 4) a builtin application

And the value proposition is the reader app is better? Well, it if its you
don't need to do anything the author suggests. You just need to improve your
e-reading application.

The author confuses needing to understand where the market is going with
making up a fantasy world where nothing you have done to support your existing
business should be accepted.

~~~
Terretta
> _So in other words Amazon and B &N should get rid of their delivery networks
> and build a better reading application..._

On the contrary, he says that's what B&N should _not_ do. My guess is you
misread the bullet points in the middle of the article as being his
recommendation, when in fact they're another set of bullet points he says are
mistaken. His final set of bullet points are the real ones, wherein he says
B&N and Amazon should discontinue tablets _and_ reader applications, and make
better storefronts, letting Apple or third parties make the better reader.

------
BklynJay
eInk is easier on the eyes than the highest resolution display available on
any smart-device. I have half a dozen smart devices and still choose to read
(books, not comics or web-pages) on my eInk device when given the opportunity.

~~~
lukifer
eInk devices are also crazy-light, even compared to a paperback, and the
battery life is measured in weeks.

------
traeblain
I feel like I stumbled into a stuffy country club to find this guy sitting
cross-legged in a leather chair with a monocle and a cigar. After a long
diatribe about how he wouldn't be caught dead in my jeans and t-shirt attire,
he decides to relate his feelings on B&N.

The smugness is palpable, although I'm catching some points and have issues
with others, I'm not allowed to speak until he's said his peace. At one point,
I'm told that since I didn't ask a question when he mention "value network",
I'm immediately told I know nothing about it and therefore required to listen
to him site a book I've already read.

Finally when it is all over and done, when I finally have a moment to parlay
my rebuttal, I let him know he's missing a number of points and confusing some
issues. But instead of listening and countering, he waves his hand and stamps
out his cigar. And as he walks away mutters "Arsehole" in that under-your-
breath manner that is still loud and obviously intended for you to hear.

As I turn back, I see that a card has been placed on my chair. It informs me
who this monocled figure was that felt the need to not simply inform, but
belittle me and my opinions. Then on the back is inscribed, "But of course you
already knew who I was..."

Although, it's true I don't fully subscribe to his points. The way this piece
was written made me feel I wasn't allowed to have a dissenting thought. It's
like he went out of his way to deny you your critical thinking, and therefore
difficult to take seriously. Just my couple cents...

------
Terretta
@mikecane: In your Fallacy of the B&N Fallacy response, you quote and reply to
bullet points baldur is already saying are fallacy. I'm copying my comment[1]
on that HN post here:

\--

mike cane, you excerpted the wrong bit of the original article:

• _Create a first rate storefront+reader on Android and the web._

• _Shift more resources into the iOS app and make it better than anybody
else’s._

• _Perform a series of commerce-oriented experiments, e.g. subscriptions,
bundling, in-book payments, etc._

The bit you quoted and respond to is what he said _other_ people's advice was.

Note the sentence AFTER those bullet points: _"Those are all good but I’d
argue that doing this wouldn’t solve B &N’s problem in the long term."_

The actual advice was to exit the app business entirely:

• _Discontinue the tablets._

• _Milk the e-ink cow until it topples over._

• _Make an awesome storefront._

• _Discontinue the reading app and license somebody else’s._

\--

1\. Crosspost of <http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5299419>

------
saturdaysaint
I agree, mostly because the technology is finally there for a multi-purpose
device to be a first-rate reader. You need high resolution, low enough weight
for pleasant one-handed use, and decent scale (both size and aspect ratio). In
B & N's defense, their current 9" model is far and away the best thing on the
market for hitting all these sweet spots (it's about 10% lighter than the
comparable Kindle and has a slightly wider screen). But yeah, a "retina" iPad
mini is going to kill the dedicated reading device.

Aside: I'm a big e-ink fan (I've owned 4 generations of Kindles) and heavy
reader that's slowly being brought around to the value of hi-DPI LCD screens.
For all the explanations of e-ink's virtues, I think the main advantage was
the lack of aliasing and other artifacts that text suffers on sub-200 dPi
screens.

------
lnanek2
He thinks amazon should be scared their ODM will replace them, but the ODM
doesn't have a brand, doesn't have services, doesn't have a digital storefront
to sell with. You could throw a clone of the Kindle on the market right now
for a lower price, but without amazon selling it and services to feed it
content, it isn't going to go anywhere. Heck, there were countless e-readers
that didn't make it before amazon.

------
programminggeek
Um, B&N should keep making hardware and they probably will. They are doing
well and have a built in market. If they lose hardware, they won't have a
strong enough software distribution mechanism and will lose by default to
Amazon.

It would be stupid, bordering on insane to give up the one good thing B&N has
going for it. Without Nook, B&N is Tower Records. Nook software is pointless
without hardware, same as Kindle software.

~~~
bergie
A question is how much Microsoft wants to be in the business of making Android
tablets... [http://www.zdnet.com/microsoft-barnes-and-noble-joint-
ventur...](http://www.zdnet.com/microsoft-barnes-and-noble-joint-venture-
finalized-and-named-7000005252/)

------
Zigurd
I hope nobody is surprised to find that B&N's management is not incompetent
and has made the correct decision: B&N can't become a viable player in e-books
and e-book reading devices, much less media and media playback devices in the
broader sense, which is likely required for success.

Bookstores will continue to decline, but there is a place for the last man
standing. College bookstores are dominated by B&N and focusing on where you
are winning is a good decision.

At best, Microsoft could buy Nook and the B&N e-book infrastructure and turn
it into a software component for Windows 8 devices. At worst, it's doomed to
not become viable.

If Nook does become viable it will do so mostly outside the US.

