

Shooting yourself out of the game? The 3 pointer and the Binomial Distribution - honksillet
https://medium.com/@alex.white/shooting-yourself-out-of-the-game-the-3-pointer-and-the-binomial-distribution-2344d41c91bf

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madcaptenor
When I do the simulation, I get 47.5% Rockets win, 48.2% Kings win, 4.3% ties.
It's not quite as bad as the post makes it sound. That being said it is
interesting that the problem isn't symmetric. The distribution of x (points
scored by the Rockets, who are shooting 3s in this example) is skewed, while
the distribution of y isn't. In general three-point results will be more
skewed than two-point results, because shooting percentages are generally less
than 50 percent, and three-point shooting percentages are lower than two-point
shooting percentages, therefore further from 50 percent.

