

Mocked And Misunderstood - 8bitliving
http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2011/12/mocked-and-misunderstood.html

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Nate75Sanders
I think we have some problems with causation here.

Being mocked and misunderstood seems neither necessary nor sufficient to
making it big.

I think Fred is arguing that it's often necessary or quasi-necessary or
something.

This really seems more like an emotional reaction to negative press than
Fred's normal well-thought-out posts.

Also, is Twitter profitable yet? That gets asked way too much, but I still
don't know the answer yet.

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fredwilson
can't comment on the specific twitter question because that's confidential
info. but it is very much on its way to becoming a big and sustainable
business.

i think the flaw in my post is you need something more than being mocked and
misunderstood. you need traction, usage, momentum, etc.

but when you have that and continue to be mocked and misunderstood, that's a
very positive signal to me.

~~~
shaggy
Can you provide any sort of insight into what will make twitter profitable?
I'm not asking for numbers or anything, just some idea as to what will make it
a long lasting, sustainable business with a real business model? You're
original post and this comment are certainly on point in that twitter has
traction and it's use is massive and wide spread, but in the end it comes down
to who's paying for it? Will twitter move to an optional (freemium)
subscription model? Will it admit it's a marketing and advertising dream data
set and sell that? I personally don't use twitter and my own bias has always
left me not understanding the point (too much noise) but I'm certainly
interested in what the plan to become a real business is.

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fredwilson
twitter's revenue model is the promoted suite

<http://blog.twitter.com/2010/10/promoted-promotions.html>

that is what they have been focusing on for the past few years and it is
producing a lot of revenue now

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diego
So many cognitive biases here that I had to write a blog post.
[http://dbasch.posterous.com/vcs-also-succumb-to-cognitive-
bi...](http://dbasch.posterous.com/vcs-also-succumb-to-cognitive-biases)

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gnufs
At the end of the linked MSNBC video, the reporter (Kate Snow) is arguing that
nobody is policing the pledged projects and that she could theoretically "go
on there and say I'm gonna raise money to make a record album and then get all
the money. And, if I never make a record album, nobody knows any different."

Is that really so with Kickstarter?

~~~
yummyfajitas
Yes. To be listed on a public stock exchange (NASDAQ, NYSE, etc) a company
must be extensively audited (e.g., "does this factory really exist? lets go
look") and is subject to various regulations (e.g. Sarbox).

When Chuggy G. raises money for an album on kickstarter, you might be
surprised to discover that Accenture does not actually audit her.

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MrMatters
If your business is "mocked and misunderstood," it isn't guaranteed to fail.
It's not anymore likely to succeed because of that though...

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Maro
Twitter has established itself as the social PR tool on the web. Any brand on
the web that wants to signal effort and understanding of the game must have a
Twitter account with daily updates.

The value for marketers is clear. It's an inexpensive way to build organic
traction.

The value for individual users, who are the product, is less clear. Twitter is
immensely noisy, and is becoming more noisy as it's use as a PR tool
increases. It's not clear to me why, overall, it's worth it for people to read
their Twitter feeds. I certainly don't read mine, I just push out a tweet a
day to signal I'm trendy.

For example, Fred Wilson's Twitter updates are links to his blog posts plus
some (for me) out of context public messages to people I don't know, ie. junk
(for me). I might as well unsubscribe and add his RSS to Google Reader and
save myself the noise. Just did.

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Tichy
OK, but I suspect that is more of a superstition thing, like "on a full moon
more babies are born" - people tend to remember the births on the full moon,
but there are not really more babies. Likewise it might be more memorable if a
mocked company becomes successful.

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sathishmanohar
One thing Fred missed to say is, while getting mocked and misunderstood may be
the pattern (pattern derived from twitter alone (I kid you not, twitter was
the only example in the article)), it doesn't mean all mocked and
misunderstood companies will be successful.

~~~
fredwilson
you are correct. that is the flaw in the post

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gry
The economist Lant Pritchett notes big ideas follow this pattern:

    
    
       silly -> controversial -> progressive -> obvious
    

<http://kottke.org/09/06/big-ideas-from-silly-to-obvious>

Fred's post touches on the silly part. I haven't been able to find much more
of Lant's model other than the slide Kottke links to.

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PaulHoule
I've come to this conclusion.

When I was in graduate school I was timid. If I had an idea that people didn't
get right away, I wouldn't stick with it.

Today if I'm working on something and people don't think I'm crazy, I think
I'm wasting my time. If everybody understands the value of something, you're
getting in too late.

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moocow01
Personally, the most mocked and misunderstood web service I can think of
within the last couple years is Chatroullette. I guess this rule passed over
them.

~~~
earbitscom
I would say AirBNB is one of the most mocked and misunderstood companies in
the last couple years and it's a great example of a breakout success. A whole
lot of people thought nobody would invite strangers into their house.

~~~
icebraining
Which is a bit ridiculous, considering Couch Surfing has been doing that for
years, way before AirBNB launched.

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majani
I'm currently mocking and misunderstanding Foursquare and Turntable.fm. Which
startups are you mocking right now?

~~~
fredwilson
That makes me feel better about those investments. Thanks for sharing that

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david927
I'm surprised at how few here are understanding what Fred is saying. He's
saying if it's so far out of people's context that they have a hard time
understanding it, that you _might be_ changing the context to something
completely new. You might have a whole new ballpark.

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colinm
KickStarter is gonna be big? I kinda thought is was already a success.

~~~
tricolon
We live in a bubble. Does your mother know about KickStarter? Does she
understand it? Has she used it?

~~~
jroseattle
Depends on your definition of successful, I suppose.

My mother doesn't know shinola about Dropbox, yet I'd say they're successful.

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funkah
I have to say, I do get a certain kick out of seeing the success of things I
use, which started out being ridiculed.

Twitter is an excellent example -- in its earlier days it really was something
special, but people mocked it in the manner he describes. And of course now
it's indispensable. Basically everything Apple made in the last 10 years or so
would be another example.

I think it's because to ridicule this things is to imply that their users are
essentially idiots, whereas the one doing the ridiculing is a free-thinking
skeptic. Then, slowly, you watch them all get iPods and Macbooks and Twitter
accounts...

