

Italy Finds Scientists Guilty Of Manslaughter For 2009 Earthquake Forecast - septerr
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2012/10/22/163400917/italy-finds-scientists-guilty-of-manslaughter-for-2009-earthquake-forecast

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denzil_correa
Haven't heard something more stupid in a long, long time.

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retrogradeorbit
You're statement is actually much more stupid than the verdict. I can tell you
have not studied law. You should start with Babylonian law...

<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Code_of_Hammurabi>

Fortunately for humanity, such principles have been the foundation of
civilisation since the time of Babylon. What you think is stupid is actually a
part of the foundation of civil society.

I think the loss of principles such as these are a big part of the rot in our
society. Take for instance Wall Street. Once there is a disconnection between
the actions and behavior of people in positions of influence and authority and
the consequences of that behavior, you get an economic moral hazard and the
implicit license to do and say whatever pays your pockets for that day,
ignoring all the downside risk.

The correct answer the scientists should have given at the time is "yes, there
may be an earthquake. Or there might not be. We can't tell." Not just saying
what the politicians wanted to hear. Not just putting out a statement to
placate people and make them feel safe. That is certainly negligent. This is
not an attack on science. This is holding authority to account for their
negligence.

Personally I think the case should extend into the negligence of politicians
who forced the scientists to release the statement as well. Also negligent may
be the builders or building code authorities who allowed such fragile
buildings to be built in a high quake area. There is more than one negligent
party here.

Also not covered in the article is the fact they arrested the non-scientist
who made the prediction and locked him up, because he was driving around
trying to convince people to relocate before the earthquake hit.

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denzil_correa
> The correct answer the scientists should have given at the time is "yes,
> there may be an earthquake. Or there might not be. We can't tell." Not just
> saying what the politicians wanted to hear. Not just putting out a statement
> to placate people and make them feel safe. That is certainly negligent. This
> is not an attack on science. This is holding authority to account for their
> negligence.

Please post and tell us what the scientists said with authentic appropriate
references.

~~~
retrogradeorbit
Immediately after that meeting, De Bernardinis and Barberi, acting president
of the committee, held a press conference in L'Aquila, where De Bernardinis
told reporters that

 _"the scientific community tells us there is no danger, because there is an
ongoing discharge of energy. The situation looks favorable"._

No other members of the committee were at the press conference.

<http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100622/full/465992a.html>

~~~
denzil_correa
Selective amnesia? Here's another and more important snip from the article.

 _The minutes of the 31 March meeting, though, reveal that at no point did any
of the scientists say that there was "no danger" of a big quake. "A major
earthquake in the area is unlikely but cannot be ruled out," Boschi said.
Selvaggi is quoted as saying that "in recent times some recent earthquakes
have been preceded by minor shocks days or weeks beforehand, but on the other
hand many seismic swarms did not result in a major event". Eva added that
"because L'Aquila is in a high-risk zone it is impossible to say with
certainty that there will be no large earthquake". Summing up the meeting,
Barberi said, "there is no reason to believe that a swarm of minor events is a
sure predictor of a major shock". All the participants agreed that buildings
in the area should be monitored urgently, to assess their capacity to sustain
a major shock._

