
The alarming threat of Zika virus - kungfudoi
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-35370848
======
ptha
Beside by mosquito, apparently it can also be transmitted sexually: "In 2009,
Brian Foy, a biologist from the Arthropod-borne and Infectious Diseases
Laboratory at Colorado State University, sexually transmitted the Zika virus
to his wife. He visited Senegal to study mosquitoes and was bitten on a number
of occasions. A few days after returning to the United States, he fell ill
with Zika, but not before having had unprotected intercourse with his wife.
She subsequently showed symptoms of Zika infection with extreme sensitivity to
light. Foy is the first person known to have passed on an insect-borne virus
to another human by sexual contact.

In 2015, Zika virus RNA was detected in the amniotic fluid of two fetuses,
indicating that it crossed the placenta and could cause fetal infection. On 20
January 2016, scientists from the state of Paraná, Brazil, detected genetic
material of Zika virus in the placenta of a woman, who had undergone an
abortion due to the fetus' microcephaly, which confirmed that the virus is
able to pass the placenta."

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zika_virus#Transmission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zika_virus#Transmission)

~~~
woliveirajr
In Brazil there were public recommendations for women about avoiding getting
pregnant, specially in the NE region of the country.

In a terrible use of words, the minister of public health "wished" that every
girl got the Zika virus before beginning her... hum... "mature period", so
that she would be protect before having any possibility of getting pregnant.

~~~
sandworm101
Those don't sound like terrible words to me. That sounds like a rather
practical approach. And he brings up an interesting dynamic. Perhaps this wave
of birth defects is partially linked to mosquito eradication. With fewer bugs
around, or at least people being bitten less often, fewer girls get the
disease early. A childhood disease may be returning as something far more
dangerous in adults, like chickenpox. That would seem a possibility worth
investigating.

~~~
schoen
Brazilians generally believe that the disease was first introduced to the
country last year, which contradicts the hypothesis that acquired immunity
used to be common. (I was in Brazil three weeks ago and talked to several
people about zika.) Here is an item from European health authorities that
agrees that the disease is new to Brazil.

[http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications/Publications/rapid-
ris...](http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications/Publications/rapid-risk-
assessment-Zika%20virus-south-america-Brazil-2015.pdf)

Edit: the linked BBC article also states that it was first reported in Brazil
in May 2015 (at least in recent years).

------
rafaelm
I'm totally terrified by this thing right now because my wife is pregnant.
There's tons of mosquitoes here in Venezuela . She already got Haemorrhagic
Dengue about 10 months ago.

The worst part is that because of the terrible state of the economy here,
there's no insect repellent in the stores and no proper Zika test kits in the
hospitals. The sanitary situation here is getting worse everyday (constant
shortage of food and medicine).

Add to that the constant politization of everything, the govt hasn't even
issued any infection figures or warnings.

I had to ask a friend coming from the US to bring some DEET repellent. But not
everyone has the same opportunity.

~~~
jayess
Out of curiosity, what keeps you in Venezuela?

~~~
rafaelm
I ask myself that every day , especially now with a baby coming. 150%
inflation in 2015 from January to September. Food and medicine shortages. Huge
lines to buy food, diapers, baby formula.

Almost all of my closest friends have already left. I think about leaving
every day. I am teaching myself programming and studying for CCNA , thinking
that maybe I can get a job somewhere relatively quickly , even though I'm in
my mid-thirties and have limited experience in those areas.

~~~
hanniabu
Keep up the good fight, keep at it and you can do it

~~~
rafaelm
Thanks for the encouraging words!

------
betolink
This is getting serious here in southern Mexico, we just had a chikungunya
outbreak a year ago and now this. These situations remind me of a talk given
at Oscon Data by Steve Yegge about working on the things that matter[0]. Virus
are complex and modelling molecular biology requires CS expertise, it's kind
of sad that we're normally discussing the new JS frameworks instead of working
on the hard(and important)problems.

[0]
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKmQW_Nkfk8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKmQW_Nkfk8)

~~~
moonchrome
>it's kind of sad that we're normally discussing the new JS frameworks instead
of working on the hard(and important)problems.

What gives you the impression that people contributing to JS frameworks have
the potential to meaningfully contribute to "hard problems" in molecular
biology ?

~~~
vemv
On the micro level, you're right.

On the macro level, the new generations of smart talented folks are choosing
CS over other career choices.

~~~
moonchrome
>the new generations of smart talented folks are choosing CS over other career
choices

Umm... he is arguing that CS is exactly what people should be focusing because
CS (ML/data processing, etc.) applied to existing fields and data could lead
to new insights - so more smart people going to CS is a good thing (at least
according to Yegge).

My point is that CS has practically nothing to do with writing JS frameworks
and frankly I doubt that most people doing JS development are the kind of
people that could make significant contributions to CS or mentioned sciences -
maybe a fraction of the top % - but JS is a low barrier to entry, easy to get
simple things done, sufficient to solve real world problems like automating
CRUD TPS reports - because someone needs to do that as well. I've had the
misfortune of working with that platform - JS is by far the lowest quality
ecosystem I've seen* (I never really got into PHP so I can't compare).

IMO Yegge makes a stronger point suggesting that data science people are being
driven to "catbook" projects instead of "important stuff" \- but those people
are not your everyday JS developers.

~~~
betolink
Correct, not everybody can do significant contributions to say molecular
biology. My point is that we need more smart people working on the problems
that matter and right now we have a lot of smart people working on
[http://(buzzwords).io](http://\(buzzwords\).io)

------
ohitsdom
Another example case that could be solved by exterminating mosquitoes. We have
the ability, and as best we know there would be little to no side effects.
Humans are already drastically altering evolution and survival of the fittest,
we might as well be smart about it.

~~~
Someone1234
Cost is the largest reason. While you're right in saying that we can
exterminate mosquitoes, the question remains how costly that would be.

For example if we used the infertile male mosquito method, we'd need to bread
billions of them and release them very carefully for maximum effect. That's
do-able but a massive undertaking.

Plus we could spend tens to hundreds of millions of dollars on this (perhaps
more) and have them spring back up a few years later just from a single missed
colony (keep in mind they can breed in almost ALL still water, from a puddle,
to a lake, to a water holding tank).

In the Americas you'd have to wipe them out in massive areas of jungle, every
island, every country (even ones with bad relations), it is just mind boggling
once you start thinking about it.

It is totally possible but would be the single largest human undertaking in
our history.

PS - Indefinite population control might be more viable than literal
extinction. Then you just release infertile males every season in the hopes of
dropping their numbers in half or better.

~~~
ethbro
With the possibility of being able to insert inherited traits via recent
genetic advances, I believe more modern methods are looking at genetic
combinations that are repressed in the parent, but lethal to any offspring (or
cause infertility in offspring). [1]

[1]
[http://www.bbc.com/news/health-35024794](http://www.bbc.com/news/health-35024794)

------
XFrequentist
The definition of microcephaly is actually head circumference less than 32cm
(not 42cm - that's like the 99th percentile). Brazil changed their definition
from 33cm during this event, so their case count includes some borderline
babies.

------
josu
It's not only Zika, the Chikungunya [1] virus has also reappeared in Latin
America, which is also spread by the same mosquito.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chikungunya](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chikungunya)

~~~
shas3
Chikungunya is a horrible malaise. It is very prevalent in India. While not
deadly, it can cripple you for days and also leave lasting damage to joints in
older people. Every adult in my family in India has gone through a bout of it.
It is a recent phenomenon, viral-arthritis type diseases were rare till
chikangunya made an appearance. I dread visiting India because of the
widespread prevalence of this disease and dengue.

~~~
josu
It's very prevalent in Mexico too, however it has mainly affected low and
middle-low income families, my guess is that due to poor sanitation and the
areas where they live (near likes and swamps). What about in India? Because
from what I can infer from your comment it seems that is much more widespread
over there.

~~~
shas3
The problem in India is that the poor and the rich don't necessarily live in
very different sanitary conditions. In my experience, the situation is likely
worse in poorer neighborhoods, but it is still very, very bad in rich
neighborhoods. Unlike countries with similar economic development metrics,
India is particularly filthy. So much so that, 'Swacch Bharat' aka 'Clean
India' is a big effort by the current Government.

This study from Johns Hopkins University, for example details how the
prevalence mosquito-borne fevers does not follow income/class:
www.jhsph.edu/news/news-releases/2015/burden-of-dengue-chikungunya-in-india-
far-worse-than-understood.html

To quote, " Researchers estimated that on average, 23 percent of those who
have not yet been infected become infected by dengue every year, corresponding
to roughly 228,000 infections per year in Chennai alone. “This rate of
infection is extremely high, almost three times higher than in areas of Brazil
and Thailand where transmission was thought to be high,” says Rodríguez-
Barraquer. They also found that the rate of infection in Chennai was similar
in poor communities as in more affluent neighborhoods. The research is
believed to be the first to systematically measure dengue and chikungunya
infection rates in India. “If you don’t understand the extent of the problem,
you can’t address it,” she says. "

------
jcromartie
It seems that microcephaly is associated with onset of Zika during the first
trimester of pregnancy. Considering the mild nature of the illness, couldn't
the virus be its own vaccine? Could a woman proactively contract the virus
while postponing pregnancy, in order to thwart it?

~~~
hemicyclium
I expect the situation is similar to the flu: once you contract a strain, you
develop immunity to that specific strain, but as soon as the disease, which is
under highly selective pressure to mutate, mutates, you are once again
susceptible to the new strain. It might work for a short while, but not a full
pregnancy.

------
corybrown
This is quite scary. Various countries now telling the entire population to
stop having kids. There could be a lost generation effect.

------
McKayDavis
I live in Hawaii and last week saw the first confirmed case of Zika virus in
the United States in a child born with microcephaly on the Big Island. [1]

The mother had recently traveled to Brazil and thankfully neither her nor the
baby are infectious -- but, living in the tropics, it seems to be only a
matter of time until we see mosquitoes carrying Zika here.

[1] [http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/31007233/hawaii-health-
of...](http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/31007233/hawaii-health-officials-
worried-about-potential-threat-from-zika-virus)

------
epx
A grandnephew of my wife was born with microcephaly, likely one of the first
victims of Zika virus, when the surge of the birth defect was still not
detected by public health.

I can just imagine the social cost of that -- how many persons in family will
have to dedicate to care, work just to supply money for the necessary medical
treatments, and/or losing professional opportunities because of this. I
estimate the impact in 10:1.

------
kolanos
An illness that I thought was influenza just swept through my household and
included pretty severe pink eye / conjunctivitis type symptoms. Are there any
other viruses circulating North America that would have such symptoms? I live
in the Sierra mountains where mosquitos are rare, so I find this all very
interesting/confusing.

------
LyndsySimon
The answer here seems obvious - DDT.

~~~
cjensen
There's a weird urban legend going around that DDT would solve mosquito
problems -- usually with the implication that environmentalists are evil for
banning this terrific substance. You appear to have succumbed to this urban
legend.

The story is just not true. DDT was banned not because of blind chemical-
phobia, but because the molecule is way too stable. It stays in the food chain
and environment for decades. Eventually, it builds up in certain predators and
wipes them out.

There are plenty of insecticides which are perfectly usable, but without DDT's
problematic stability. Stability does not help with mosquito control, so the
lack of stability does not hurt effectiveness.

Consider the Silicon Valley. 150 years ago the land that Facebook is on was
considered uninhabitable due to mosquitos. If DDT was that crucial to killing
mosquitos, then mosquitos should have recovered in the 40 years since the ban.

[0] [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DDT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DDT)

~~~
refurb
Stability is not a help with mosquito control? Of course it is. You can dust
your dwelling and not have to treat again for a month due to the stability. It
certainly is a benefit.

Yes, DDT builds up in organisms and can cause reproductive issues in some
birds. The point the OP is trying to make is that we as a society decided that
bird health is more important than human health.

And I'm not sure I understand your Silicon Valley example. The land that
Facebook was on was drained and backfilled. No standing water, no mosquitos.
What does DDT have to do with it?

~~~
pvaldes
Not. We banned DDT also because we care about human health.

There is evidence of adverse human health effects resulting from long-term
exposure to DDT, including reproductive health effects at birth (preterm birth
and low birth weight); growth reduction in boys, earlier puberty in girls and
neurodevelopmental impairment in infants.

There is also evidence of neurotoxic effects in adults. Adverse pregnancies
and breast cancer in women; and reduction in semen quality and development of
pancreatic cancers in men.

Source:
[http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780444522...](http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780444522726004554)

~~~
refurb
DDT was banned in 1972 in the US. The paper you cite is from 2011.

The fact remains that no pesticide is completely non-toxic. Compared to other
pesticides, DDT is actually quite safe.

If you look at the wikipedia summary of the current position on long-term
toxicity, you can see that it's not a settled issue.[1]

 _" Overall, in spite of some positive associations for some cancers within
certain subgroups of people, there is no clear evidence that exposure to
DDT/DDE causes cancer in humans."_

[1][https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DDT#Chronic_toxicity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DDT#Chronic_toxicity)

~~~
pvaldes
DDT intake in US peaked in 1965, but in Mexico was not banned until 2000 for
example, therefore is relevant to have a recent review here. We have learned a
lot and clearly linked the substance with lots of unwanted and undesired
effects since 1972.

Women develop breast cancer typically around 50 years age ( the median age at
diagnostics is 61) with around 230.000 new cases in US in 2015, and at a
relatively stable rate (~12% of women). Thus we are far away to see the real
results of DDT banning in US. Maybe we will not have a clear answer until
2022, when the women born in 1972 will reach 50 years.

------
dfar1
Brazil can't get their mosquitoes under control. They have been struggling to
eradicate Dengue (breakbone fever) for years. Health authority is too slow,
too unprepared, and lacking budget. The government is corrupt and the people
don't seem to care.

~~~
forinti
"people don't seem to care."

That's the real problem from which all others derive.

