

The Leave - dave1619
http://daringfireball.net/2011/01/the_leave

======
keyle

         Jobs’s leave of absence is cause for concern — and for good thoughts and well-wishes. It is not cause for panic.
    

Like any shareholder would say.

~~~
isleyaardvark
> I do not own a single share of Apple Inc.; nor do I own stock in any other
> individual company I might write about on Daring Fireball. I do not expect
> this to change, but I pledge that if it does, I’ll disclose it here.
> (<http://daringfireball.net/2007/08/taking_stock>)

I haven't seen him disclose anything about owning Apple stock since 2007. I
wouldn't blame you for the assumption, but I don't think he's a shareholder.

~~~
lallysingh
I think Gruber's honest and sincere in his beliefs. But, even without shares
in AAPL, his own business is rather tied to apple's well being. He's the
huffington post for mac addicts.

I think Jobs has been engineering a healthy Apple that can withstand his
absence for some time now. Still, I don't know many better showmen than Jobs
in the tech sector.

------
mikeklaas
Gruber admits that Apple isn't the same without Jobs. The issues isn't whether
Apple can persist in the short term without him — obviously, it can — and it
will even continue making handsome profits well into the future.

The question is whether Apple can come up with the next ipod or iphone without
him. That, I sincerely doubt.

~~~
hugh3
Now now, who says they can come up with the next iPod or iPhone even _with_
him?

What other worlds are left for Apple to conquer? Where else in your life can
you possibly put an Apple product?

On top of your television? Maybe. The AppleTV is actually a damn good product,
but it still hasn't gained much traction. Many folks still aren't quite sure
what it does. Heck, I've used one and I'm still not quite sure what it does. I
know what it _won't_ do, though, and that's play my DVD collection.

Games consoles? I'm doubtful -- Apple's strength is in making better user
interfaces than everyone else, but when you play a game you're at the mercy of
the third party developer's interface. (And yes, they already failed at this
once).

~~~
swombat
Looking around the room at mass consumer electronics products which aren't
Apple yet:

\- Hifi

\- Printers

\- TVs (being done)

Looking at mass computer categories that aren't really done yet:

\- Wearable computers

Granted they're not all likely, or even probable, expansion points for Apple.
But if I can think of these in 2 minutes, I'm sure the crack team of product
designers at Apple can think of a lot more (before culling most of them and
picking the one most sexy option).

~~~
silvestrov
Hifi is iPod + AirPort Express. Apple tried to do speakers but found out they
didn't have the competence for doing that. Besides, there is not much profit
in selling speakers unless you are B&W. Amplifiers are an insignificant
detail, somewhat like cables.

Even B&W has realized this: see all their iPod speaker products. As more and
more teens become twenty-somethings with a wage, I expect this product line to
grow to be a significant part of B&Ws revenue.

Young people (e.g. teens) don't use CD players. A CD player for them is like
LP players: a historical artifact of old generations. Most radio channels
today don't have good content, and the good stuff is available over the net.
So no receiver either. The only source left for many young people is the
computer/iPod/iPad/iPhone.

So Apple has the Hifi solved. They're just waiting for the old generation to
get that CD players should be put into the trashbin like they did with the VCR
player.

~~~
hugh3
Except for people who are interested in actual _hi_ fi, as in high fidelity --
people who wouldn't be caught dead listening to anything as lossily compressed
as an mp3.

I'm no audio geek, but I can easily tell the difference between CD and mp3 for
some of the music I listen to. I even have a CD of Beethoven's Ninth which
I've never actually listened to because the audio equipment I have can't do it
justice.

~~~
silvestrov
For _hi_ fi, there is Apple Lossless (the reason my music is not on my
portable/iPod but on a MacMini with an external harddrive).

Still no CD player: you let iTunes rip the CD using Apple Lossless.

Besides, you assume mp3's are 128 Kbits. When you get to 320 Kbit mp3s, most
hi fi geeks can't make out the difference in _blind tests_. (they can always
if the test isn't blind and they know which source is which – just like wine
taste experiments).

------
hugh3
_More important than the holiday, though, is that Apple announces its
quarterly results tomorrow, and they’re expected to be excellent. Some smart
analysts are expecting Apple’s actual revenue to beat the consensus estimates
by $2 billion._

So what we're saying is that analysts expect the results to be better than
analysts expect the results to be?

What if it turns out that the results _aren't_ quite as good as expected? Or
that they're better than expected but not as much better than expected as is
apparently now expected? What'll _that_ do to the share price?

I should put in some buy orders at $200 just in case...

~~~
cwp
Oh, give me a break. You don't have to be an Apple fanboi to understand the
difference between "some smart analysts" and "the consensus." He's saying most
analysts predict X, while a few (smart ones, apparently) predict X + $2
billion.

If you think he (or the "smart analysts") are wildly optimistic, fine. No need
to beat up on strawmen; simple skepticism will suffice.

~~~
hugh3
Presumably there are some also-smart analysts who are predicting X - $2
billion, then?

All I'm saying is that we should also be prepared for the possibility that the
earnings report is less, rather than more, than expected. If it were not so,
then they wouldn't be very sensible expectations.

~~~
halostatue
The early indicators that I'm seeing from iOS app developers suggests
otherwise. "Best Christmas Ever" is not an uncommon descriptor, suggesting
major iPod touch purchases, plus.

I know at work we've been seeing a lot more formerly Windows-only households
adding Macs this past quarter.

------
aristidb
Another American ignoring the rest of the world: no need to speculate how the
news will affect the stock price after the US holiday ends when you can just
look how Apple performed in European markets, which were open during the time
of the announcement (and reacted immediately with a 7% drop).

Sorry for the rant, but this is the second time I see something like this
today, and it pisses me off to no end.

~~~
po
Other markets have nowhere near the liquidity of the market where AAPL shares
are actually bought and sold. If you think the US market will wind up where
the european one did then go ahead and make that trade.

The opinion of _the market_ will change as time goes on and people process the
information available and more information becomes available.

I don't think its fair to say "another American ignoring the rest of the
world" when his whole point is that what matters is how apple does on the
NASDAQ _after_ the earnings announcements. In this case, how Apple stock
traded in european markets over the holiday _really is_ irrelevant to AAPL.
It's nothing personal.

~~~
aristidb
Wow, your comment made mine go from +7 to +1.

Trading on Xetra was quite active yesterday, but certainly less than a typical
Nasdaq day. You should not discount that price movement as irrelevant.

And Gruber's point on earnings releases was a separate one, IMO.

~~~
po
_Wow, your comment made mine go from +7 to +1._

Ha. Sorry about that! I usually only downvote things that are materially wrong
or offensive but I know lots of people use it as a vote to say they disagree.
Your comment also had a sort of "typical American" derogatory feel to it which
you can only get away with until someone points it out. Most people reading HN
are probably Americans you know. ;-)

As for the price movement, it is relevant only in that it is exactly the sort
of knee-jerk reaction that Apple was avoiding by announcing on a holiday
weekend. The movement we see when the market opens will be different given
that people have had time to absorb the news, even without the earnings
announcement.

~~~
aristidb
It WAS supposed to be a rant.

And sure, the price movement was a "knee-jerk" reaction, and the price on US
open will likely move higher - or lower. An instant drop followed by a flat
market pretty much is a textbook example of the stock market reacting to
unexpected events, though.

~~~
po
Maybe: "Don't rant about ignorant Americans to Americans unless you're willing
to burn karma"? I guess they're all asleep now so you can get away with it.
But this one is in Tokyo!

The German market just opened and Apple is now going up:

[http://www.boerse-
frankfurt.de/EN/index.aspx?pageID=35&I...](http://www.boerse-
frankfurt.de/EN/index.aspx?pageID=35&ISIN=US0378331005)

------
scrame
Why do people read this drivel? Its Corporate PR in the form of a blog.

The collective "fuck" that he felt had nothing to do with steve job's health
and everything to do with hoping there is an iPad mini unveiled at the next
keynote.

While he idolizes steve jobs, it is apple that brings him his beloved
products, so he is hoping that one of his Kowtow yes-men will be able to step
up and be the narcissistic "rock-star" and keep delivering updates of his
overpriced yuppie toys.

------
JacobAldridge
Not a particularly detailed article over at Slate posed the question as to
whether details of Jobs' health should be disclosed as "material" to
stockholders under the spirit (though not the letter) of SEC laws.

I don't really know, so, discuss...

[<http://www.slate.com/id/2281452/> \- as I said, not that detailed so I
didn't submit it separately]

------
mattwdelong
_More important than the holiday, though, is that Apple announces its
quarterly results tomorrow, and they’re expected to be excellent._

I've seen this guy write some pretty stupid things, but this takes the cake.

~~~
guywithabike
What's stupid about it? Or are we just slinging mud because we're an ad agency
and that's what any respectable ad agency does?

~~~
mattwdelong
First of all, I have no clue where that knee-jerk response came from.

Secondly, I cannot believe that Gruber would state that Apples quarterly
report has more importance than a day that remembers a remarkable man. I think
Martin Luther King JR day is pretty damn important one. But that`s just me,
and my opinion.

~~~
gregstoll
I don't think he meant more important than the holiday itself, but more
important than the fact that the markets are closed today, with respect to how
Apple's stock price fares.

~~~
mattwdelong
I suppose, reading into the larger context of the article, that would make
sense. Cheers for the clarification.

