
A majority of auto executives still think battery electric cars will fail - evo_9
https://electrek.co/2018/01/08/auto-executives-battery-electric-cars-fail-survey/
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gumby
Well. They might be right if they also believe that thr dominant model will
continue to be be individuals making large capital investments in rarely used
assets (i.e. continuing to purchase automobiles which are used less than 5% of
the time).

Recharge time, range anxiety and the like are irrelevant when you pay for the
ride, not the equipment.

Four months ago I got rid of my three cars, replacing them with a flat-rate
Uber pass and the occasional rental. Life has been easier and cheaper — and I
don’t live in a city.

The car companies themselves are screwed unless they switch, long term, to
selling rides as a service themselves. Nobody wants to be a seller of
commodity product to a monopsony.

~~~
orf
You had _three_ cars??

~~~
gumby
Yes, I live in California where it appears to be _de rigeur_ for a household
to have more automobiles than people.

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api
... and the majority of traditional aerospace execs still apparently think
reusable rockets will fail.

This is why sometimes you just have to "reboot" an industry or other system
and replace its institutions. IMHO the next industry that deserves a full
reboot is Hollywood.

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maxsilver
I can not fathom how they could experience riding/driving a modern electric
car and not instantly understand that this is the future of the automobile
(regardless of who owns them or what is driving them).

~~~
Spivak
Because the future belongs to fuel cells. Electric cars are undoubtedly the
future but batteries, at least in their current form, probably aren't. Huge
banks of batteries are a stop-gap until fuel cell tech matures.

* The practical range of an electric car isn't great. There's no foreseeable story for a <5 minute charge.

* (Compared to fuel cells) Banks of batteries are dangerous in a crash.

I think the Electrek authors are wrong in their take on the situation.
Distribution of the hydrogen will have razor thin margins just like gas
stations. They're right that the current process for hydrogen isn't exactly
efficient today, but that doesn't really sink the tech.

It might not be full fuel cell but a hybrid fuel cell battery car might end up
being the best of both worlds.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Was /s intended? Because electric battery costs are falling faster than solar
PV costs fell [1] [2], and there are EV charing stations anywhere there is
120/240 service.

There are 39 hydrogen fueling stations in the entire US [3]. There are 8500
Tesla Superchargers alone [4] (not to mention destination chargers, as well as
non-Tesla charging stations [5]).

[1] [https://electrek.co/2017/01/30/electric-vehicle-battery-
cost...](https://electrek.co/2017/01/30/electric-vehicle-battery-cost-
dropped-80-6-years-227kwh-tesla-190kwh/)

[2]
[https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2564](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2564)

[3]
[https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/hydrogen_locations.html](https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/hydrogen_locations.html)

[4] [https://www.tesla.com/supercharger](https://www.tesla.com/supercharger)

[5] [https://www.plugshare.com/](https://www.plugshare.com/)

~~~
maxerickson
There's an argument that running on methanol or ethanol is a requirement for a
broad market fuel cell.

Just because you can almost drop those directly into the infrastructure used
for gasoline. Hydrogen also sucks to store.

~~~
toomuchtodo
I'm unfamiliar with any mass production of methanol as a fuel, and I shudder
to think of how much more environmental damage we'd incur attempting to scale
up ethanol production (which is already a net negative if you're using corn;
there's really nowhere in the US that is conducive to growing sugar beats for
production [unlike in South America]).

Electricity is the way forward.

~~~
maxerickson
Methanol is produced at large scale already, using natural gas as a feedstock.
Can also use coal.

Electricity is probably cleaner.

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wynch
As long as we don't find a battery technology providing as much energy density
as gasoline, electric cars will only be a fad with no real economic advantage.

Regarding climate change and CO2 emissions, electric cars fail too : making
the car AND producing the electricity to run it still produces way to much
CO2. (most electricity still comes from coal)

If I had to make a bold prediction : in the future, individual cars (running
on gas or electricity) will be rare !

~~~
karthikb
> most electricity still comes from coal

Highly dependent on location. At the end of 2016, CA was is less than 5% usage
and 0.2% production of coal powered electricity. Many other places are
following as well.

~~~
wynch
Look at the broader picture. I'm talking about world consumption
([http://www.tsp-data-portal.org/Breakdown-of-Electricity-
Gene...](http://www.tsp-data-portal.org/Breakdown-of-Electricity-Generation-
by-Energy-Source#tspQvChart))

Fossil fuels (coal, gas - on which CA depends for more than half its
electricity production BTW) represent more than 60% of electricity produced
worldwide.

------
stamps
I tend to think hydrogen is going to be the winner.

------
lurr
> it’s even more depressing than we could have imagined.

I don't see it as depressing that they think this.

It's depressing that they could be right.

> “more than half (54%) of global auto executives say they believe these
> vehicles will fail commercially due to infrastructure challenges while 60
> percent say excessive recharging times will do them in.”

Sounds like valid arguments.

> According to the survey, which polled nearly 1,000 executives (including 90
> in the United States), more than three-quarters of executives think that
> fuel cell hydrogen vehicles will be the future.

So not depressing at all. They think the alternative fuel of the future will
be different, but still off of fossil fuels. That sounds fine.

This "article" is terrible.

