
Magic Leap is a Tragic Heap - pain_perdu
http://palmerluckey.com/magic-leap-is-a-tragic-heap/
======
pain_perdu
For anyone who didn't happen to notice, it should be noted that this review
was written by Palmer Luckey, the founder of Oculus VR and designer of the
Oculus Rift.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palmer_Luckey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palmer_Luckey)

~~~
late2part
True. But his assertions are mostly fact based and support his thesis.

Who really thinks Magic Leap holds up to the hype and is really a good use of
its investment capital?

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Miredly
Nothing could hold up to the amount of hype Magic Leap got, but based on what
I've seen it's been an excellent use of its investment capital. They've been
experimenting with new technologies for years now and they finally have a
development kit that speaks to the path they plan to follow in the future.

I also wouldn't trust Palmer Lucky to have anything like an objective opinion
about it.

~~~
Lazare
> They've been experimenting with new technologies for years now

True.

> and they finally have a development kit that speaks to the path they plan to
> follow in the future.

...which is following the same path everyone else is, except further behind,
because all those new technologies failed to work out?

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AndrewKemendo
I've been in AR for almost a decade now and I have always been in the "we
really need Magic Leap to work" camp, as well as recognizing just how hard it
really is to do AR right. I'm also not a VR fan, but appreciate how its moved
the needle on these technologies broadly. That said, Palmer makes his best
points with these quotes:

 _sucked all the air out of the room in the AR space...allowed them to
monopolize funding in the AR investment community_

That is unquestionably what happened, as, if you talked with any major VC in
the last 5 years they would admit that they were waiting on Magic Leap to make
a move before they would really think about seriously funding anything else.
So in that sense, it's been a constant frustration.

I'm still hopeful that Apple, Microsoft, FB or Google can make something
compelling, and I think ML has been generally positively received - however
it's always caveated as "these are the early days." Which is true, but the
hype for ML has been unfortunate.

Again, consumer AR - especially HMD AR - is exceptionally hard to do right, so
my hat is off to ML and the amazing people they have. However even Rony
Abovitz (ML CEO) agrees that they were arrogant in their approach, and I think
the end result is that it's hurt the AR industry in the larger sense.

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Kapura
This blog is going right into my special bookmarks folder along with
"Microsoft Surface is on Slippery Ground" by Tim Cook and "Ford? More like
BORED!" by Elon Musk.

~~~
Sammi
Links?

I can't find anything relevant by googling those titles myself.

~~~
rossdavidh
I'm guessing that was sarcasm, meaning something along the lines of "would you
believe an article about Microsoft by Apple's CEO?"

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jazzyjackson
Been anticipating this teardown ever since this hackernews post [1] comparing
the promises with the patents and nailing the prediction that ML1 would be
yet-another LCOS headset.

Frankly I've been cheerleading their implosion ever since this farce of a TED
talk [2] in 2012. An opportunity to present their technology and they jump
around in monster costumes wasting everyone's time. Thwaxo's Strangely
Demented Space Fudge ? This was months after securing half a billion in
funding. Just left a really bad taste in my mouth.

[1] [https://hackernoon.com/what-is-magic-leap-
really-642e1660fcc...](https://hackernoon.com/what-is-magic-leap-
really-642e1660fcc4)

[2]
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8J5BWL8oJY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8J5BWL8oJY)

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sqs
I was blown away by Magic Leap when I tried it a couple weeks ago. I have no
affiliation with the company and was skeptical beforehand. Maybe there are
other things that are better, but it was really, really cool. It felt like a
new kind of thing entirely.

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mattnewport
What specifically blew you way compared to other AR headsets like HoloLens for
example?

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sqs
That’s the thing. I haven’t tried the others (except Google Glass 4-5 years
ago). They might be better.

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gameshot911
Let's assume for the sake of a conversation that this article is right, and
Magic Leap (ML) is lackluster. What is it exactly that makes VR tech so
difficult, then? ML had all the money in the world, and still (presumably)
couldn't hit the mark. What exactly is missing - is it the material sciences
for eye-projection systems? Ability to downsize the graphics and processing
tech into a small package?

What critical milestones are still missing that, when available, will allow
truly immeresive VR? And anyone dare predict when they will be available?

~~~
Kapura
So, AR is harder than VR because of things like surface detection and
occlusion. That being said, the problems with closed-headset VR are twofold:
the price and the arid software landscape.

A Vive Pro headset, the most advanced consumer-ready VR headset, costs $800,
plus a few hundred $ more for each of the base stations and controllers. On
top of that, you need a good PC to run any VR software. That's a lot of money
to invest.

And if you do, you're met with a bunch of weird experiments, a few weird
experiments with some polish, and a handful of games that offer a truly novel
experience in VR.

But because the barrier to getting into VR is so high, it doesn't make
financial sense for most companies to try to make software for the space. And
because there are too few games, there isn't a good reason to buy a headset,
so the whole ecosystem goes full ouroboros.

So, I guess the thing that is missing is the price falling low enough that the
VR ecosystem can become self-sustaining. Good VR systems totally exist; they
just cost $4000 and you can't do anything with them, lol.

~~~
rossdavidh
+1 for using the phrase "goes full ouroboros"

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xt00
Sadly Magic Leap I think had to ship something so they could start up a new
hype cycle and get more funding.

Give it 3 months and they will be talking about how they didn’t expect to sell
many of this first product anyway and now they are working on the “future for
sure this time”..

~~~
jonny_eh
I'm surprised they shipped anything. The hype was at perpetual motion machine
level.

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captain_perl
Ever notice the similarity between Bitcoin and VR blogs and comments? Always,
"it's early days," even after years of waiting for something useful.

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asciimo
Well, if the technology isn't impressive at least they still have Neal
Stephenson. He may be able to create experiences that no other VR platform
offers.

[https://magic-leap.reality.news/news/magic-leaps-neal-
stephe...](https://magic-leap.reality.news/news/magic-leaps-neal-stephenson-
reveals-what-its-like-create-content-for-secretive-startup-0183486/)

~~~
sbarre
FWIW Neal Stephenson also supported "Clang!" [0], a notorious early (2013)
Kickstarter project (also dealing with "virtual in the real") that failed
pretty miserably.

0:
[https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/260688528/clang/descrip...](https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/260688528/clang/description)

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mentos
Didn’t VR have the same hype train surrounding it that led to Facebook
dropping a cool billion on it to acquire Oculus? To date what do we really
have to show in VR?

How is Oculus/Palmer any less guilty than Magic Leap? Give it 5 more years and
I think we’ll call both initiatives a failure when compared against their
promises.

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pochamago
I don't think your assessment of the VR industry is particularly sharp.

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EpicEng
Why is that? As an outsider it seems like it launched as a neat gadget, but
lacked staying power due to sparse content and high cost to entry.

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stillmaned
I got as far as "I want what is best for VR" because in my opinion is a load
of crap coming from a sell-out.

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quxbar
Does anyone know why he left Facebook?

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mindcrash
He didn't leave. He was fired for unknown reasons.

But according to Zuck not due to "controversial political views" (Palmer is a
passionate libertarian who supported Donald Trump, several Republican senators
and the Republican party both in California and Washington.), but that's quite
interesting because after word got out he supported Trump he was silently
stripped of management responsibilities at Oculus ("In the wake of the
revelation, Luckey’s role at Facebook was quietly reduced." \--
[https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/mar/31/palmer-
lu...](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/mar/31/palmer-luckey-trump-
supporting-vr-pioneer-leaves-facebook) )

Also was a big disappointment for me personally, I got interested into Oculus
due to his work and that of Carmack.

