

What's the next product that will disrupt the smartphone industry? - cyrusradfar
http://kapuno.com/conversation/apu6f4yabslga

======
MSM
A little bit of a side story about something that really opened my eyes last
week.

I ordered a package that was shipping through UPS and when I called I was
dismayed that there wasn't a way to enter my tracking number (It was 15ish
alpha-numeric characters) besides speaking. So I thought "Okay, AAyyy--Fiivvee
--Geeee..." I was about half way through slowly saying the tracking number
when I was interrupted "Package not found, try again?"... Okay. "I must have
to rattle this off pretty quick" I thought, so I blew threw it. It immediately
found my package, told me where it was and when it was expected to arrive.

It was amazing. Voice recognition was good enough that UPS deems it fail-safe
enough to have it be the only way to find a package by phone. That was the
first time I really thought there might actually be a chance for an almost
fully speech operated phone without a traditional UI.

~~~
zobzu
As someone who doesn't have a very good english accent I find the speech
recognition isn't that good. People understand me just fine, but sometimes, no
matter how much effort I put into it, the software will not.

Most of them fall back on a human operator after 5+ tries ;-) Yeah that's how
I know... :(

~~~
cyrusradfar
I can't personally say I feel your pain; however, my mother does. She has a
thick middle-eastern accent. It's one of the funniest things seeing her try to
request directions by voice on her Nexus.

~~~
sachingulaya
One tip that might help her is to do an exaggerated impression of an american
accent when speaking to her phone.

When using my nexus I regularly mispronounce words and names so that the voice
recognition can make sense of it.

~~~
cyrusradfar
Thanks that's helpful, I'll pass it on.

------
acd
I imagine a future, where cafés has screens in the coffee tables your phone
will dock up to the larger display and take advantage of that. When you are
near a TV at a friends house you will be able to directly display pictures on
their TV or a hotel without hassle.

Airplanes will have USB chargers in the seat or near to the infotainment
screen. This will provide you with a fresh device charge so that you arrive to
your destination with full battery.

You will be able to be social with your phone and share things with your
friends. This will be much simpler than today.

When sitting at home the voice recognition in the phone will be able to pick
up places you talk about and show information relative to that, such as maps.
If you are discussing a trip the phone will be able to search for flight and
hotel information by listening to the conversations speech.

Augmented reality will help you remember faces, navigate through the city.
Show the best places where to go when in a foreign city.

Eventually there will be world global flat rate mobile internet. There will be
more high density mobile transmitters there is definitely the possibility to
integrate mobile transmitters in street light posts. So that the lamp posts
have standardized module connectors where mobile operators get power and fiber
connection to the Wi-Fi and mobile base stations.

Cell phones will be able to transmit your location to nearby cars to avoid
collisions.

------
marknutter
The thing about disruptive technologies that I've noticed is that they rarely
come from the originator of the technology. Instead it takes a company like
Apple to sit down and finally work out how to present the technology in a way
that the average person not only can use it but enjoys using it. The next
thing to disrupt the smartphone industry won't be some crazy new technology
noobdy has ever heard about but instead be a well assembled collection of
existing technologies made ultra intuitive and easy to use.

~~~
psbp
I think it's worth considering that Apple was particularly adept at developing
the products that have flourished for the past 6 years. You can't definitely
say who will be the best able to bring the next big thing.

------
QuantumGood
With scanning electron microscopes so cheap, materials science is moving very
quickly lately, e.g. Nanocrystalline cellulose (NCC). I think that makes it
that much harder to predict disruptive products, which not uncommonly include
a convergence of new(ish) technologies.
([http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21528786.100-why-
wood-...](http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21528786.100-why-wood-pulp-is-
worlds-new-wonder-material.html) )

But that said, form factor seems to be the most unresolved issue.

Each newly popular size (Samsung Tab, iPad mini, etc.) between the original
iPhone and iPad sizes is hailed in some corners as changing the way users look
at their devices ("I've stopped using my ___ because this new form factor does
everything I want"-style comments).

It seems to me that "highly portable" and "can use with a keyboard" are two
camps that seem will never converge...but IF they could, it would very
disruptive to other form factors.

A folding tablet with available keyboard could be one possibility to converge
those two form factors (which I posted about on HN quite awhile back at
<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3422295>).

But since the next disruption may rely on convergence between technologies
that aren't yet with us, who knows? And even things that look great (video
phones and flying cars famously having been around for a loooong time) who
knows if it will be something like Google Glasses or not? Hard to predict what
will be adopted, and what it will be competing with to get users to adopt it.

------
31reasons
Diverting a bit from the subject. Here is what author of the blog says about
himself: "Programming since I was 7 and built a lot of what you're using now."
Wish I had such confidence in promoting my self.

~~~
dkubb
By "built a lot of what you're using now" he could mean he built a large part
of the site that hosts the article.

~~~
cyrusradfar
The product that the post was posted to was something I've been working on for
a while.

------
hkmurakami
Isn't this basically Google Glass in a different form factor? I guess the
advantage of a band is that it doesn't encumber one's appearance, while the
disadvantage is that you require some sort of external display device to read
your output.

(the inter-device connectivity/authentication seems like something that would
happen naturally via bluetooth to Google Glass)

~~~
cyrusradfar
Well, maybe, I haven't used glass. Think of the band as a hub that identifies
you and connects to the world

------
chmike
I fully share this view. There are already a few offers, but it still needs
some more work regarding thickness and autonomy.

The benefit is that the phone can stay in the pocket while we check for new
messages or new events or do some quick and simple actions. This would be much
less intrusive than a phone.

Puhing this idea further we can imagine sensors attached to the body and
connected to the phone. Same for cars and room we would frequently be in.

Bluetouth communication is underused.

What about using nfc and phones to control hiddden or smart locks ?

~~~
cyrusradfar
Check Lockitron out: <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQCJgx_kofo>

------
ChuckMcM
A number of folks have speculated on the connector 'rock' (something like a
wallet you carry around which connects you to the net) and then a variety of
peripherals which are service portals too it. I could imagine just pairing my
BT headset with an iPad and making phone calls on it. I don't really need to
hold the transmitter up to my head.

But the smartphone/tablets are in the process of disrupting the PC industry,
so I'm not sure they are ready for being themselves disrupted yet.

~~~
cyrusradfar
I'm a proponent of a device that you never take off. It needs to be
waterproof, comfortable, and robust. If that's true then people can design
assuming that it's always with you.

I don't think this is a pipe dream.

~~~
bigiain
I'm hoping the Pebble Watch will be at least a step in that direction. I'm
planning to downgrade to a not-very-smart Android phone to replace my iPhone
when my Pebble arrives - with the intention of the phone being mainly to make
and recieve calls, send text messages, and provide internet access to the
watch and my tablet. I suspect the watch and a tablet between them will do
everything my smartphone does, but better - apart, of course, from making
calls(though I have been known to use Skype on the iPad via shared-over-wifi
3G internet from the phone in my pocket). I doubt it exists right now, but I'm
imagining a tiny phone (the size of an old Nokia 3210 or a Sony Erickson
8210), with Siri-style voice recognition to deal with text messaging, and
maybe a decent-enough camera. Preferably with a week-long battery life.

~~~
xk_id
I have already downgraded to a Blackberry Curve 9360, because of getting an
iPad. I mostly use it for texting and calling. I really think you're right, at
least to me smartphones stopped making sense after I got an iPad. Thanks for
the shared-over-wifi 3G internet tip – can't believe I never thought of it.

------
eli
This reminds me of the Personal Area Network (PAN), which was supposed to be
the Next Big Thing in mobile technology 5 or 6 years ago. The idea was you'd
have a device that connects you to the cell tower and it would create a bubble
of BlueTooth or ZigBee connectivity that would allow you to get texts on your
wristwatch, connect your laptop to the internet, interact with other nearby
personal networks, etc.

~~~
cyrusradfar
I've never heard of that eli, you have a good link?

EDIT: Just used that Google machine:
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_area_network>

Interesting stuff. Thank you.

~~~
eli
Sure thing. I don't have a better link, but I was tangentially in the telecom
industry at that time.

Looking back, it seems like the people betting on "convergence" were right.
With iPads getting smaller and smartphones getting bigger it seems like we're
trending towards one device that's slightly too big to fit in a pocket.

(I think the PAN concept was also a bit overhyped by people who had a vested
interest in their particular flavor of networking technology)

------
nthitz
Better hope you don't lose your device. Or worse, better hope bad guys don't
kidnap you. Instant access to everything your band authenticates you to.

Maybe just your family photos, maybe access to your company's source code,
maybe unlocks the door to your house!

I think it's a great idea to be honest, but there are troublesome issues.

~~~
cyrusradfar
That's true, it's an issue; but I hope you'd agree one that's not
insurmountable.

For example, it could be incredibly easy to invalidate your band by, for
example, calling a number, going to a website or, from a mobile phone.

~~~
nthitz
Yes that would work for losing your band, similar to a credit card, makes
sense.

But with people walking around with the keys to their entire kingdom, I am
perhaps more worried about the kidnapping sort of scenario.. Maybe I've just
seen too many movies.

~~~
cyrusradfar
Re: Kidnapping, maybe it's all the marketing for Liam Neilson's Taken 2. For
f---'s sake, how many time can the guy's family get kidnapped!

With respect to banking and other auth, you could have a second level auth,
e.g. passkey's still.

------
hereonbusiness
Maybe the next big thing will be a shift to truly useful smartphones,
something that enables you to be productive instead of only being able to
consume apps and services.

Ubuntu for Android looks like a move in the right direction.
<http://www.ubuntu.com/devices/android>

------
WiseWeasel
Here's hoping it's a robotic bird or lizard perched on your shoulder, talking
into your ear.

------
hahahanononono
Here's a crazy one...what if it's "nothing?" No devices, no chips, nada.
Instead, everything around you will be smart enough to know you are there and
present you relevant information. Android does have facial recognition baked
in.

------
kode4fun
\- I think intelligent personal assistants. Something like Siri but better and
more useable.

~~~
cyrusradfar
Interesting, what do you actually use Siri for beyond messing with it to get a
funny response?

~~~
xk_id
Here's a list of some of my use cases; I'm sure I'll discover more with time.
I keep my iPad passlocked with a strong pass, so Siri is sometimes really
convenient. Also, I tend to keep the iPad next to my bed, because very often
when I go to sleep I get all those ideas about what I need to do the next day.

1) "wake me up at ..."

2) "Remind me to...

3) "Do I have any new emails?"

4) "What do I have to do today?"

5) "What is the EST time?" (the starting time of some live broadcasts were
given in EST and I'm in London)

6) "Set the timer for..." (when I study, or boil eggs), "Stop/resume the
timer"

I actually use Siri at least a couple of times every day.

~~~
cyrusradfar
I always feel odd talking to my phone in private. Honestly, I'm a tad scared
I'll start to like it. I only do it in public during debates over stupid
facts!

E.g. How old was Benjamin Franklin when he died?

~~~
xk_id
It's awesome :D

------
trotsky
one of the reasons you carry it around is because you're in control of it.
delegating temporary access to your personal data on a shared input device is
an unsolved problem, just ask facebook.

~~~
cyrusradfar
My thought was that it was proximity based. If you traveled to far away from
the screen/device the pairing would be broken and you'd be logged out. Much
like how bluetooth mice/keyboards work today.

~~~
trotsky
note that that's trust based

~~~
cyrusradfar
duly noted :)

------
aquarin
Merge between health monitoring devices and mobile phones.

------
tomrod
3d printing.

~~~
cyrusradfar
So you believe 3d printing will disrupt the smartphone?

~~~
tomrod
I must have been very tired when I wrote this. It could, but I thought the
question was more "what's the next big trend/killer app in smartphone tech"

~~~
cyrusradfar
Ha, no problem. I agree it's a breakthrough. You ever see the TedX talk on 3d
printing architecture. Talk about totally disrupting the construction market
:)

Here's a link: [http://thenextweb.com/shareables/2012/08/12/this-
giant-3d-pr...](http://thenextweb.com/shareables/2012/08/12/this-
giant-3d-printer-can-construct-house-little-20-hours/)

Hope you've got some rest!

