

Imminent Iran nuclear threat? A timeline of warnings since 1979. - kephra
http://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/print/content/view/print/422252

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muraiki
I've been trying to understand why Russia, and particularly China, have been
backing Iran and Syria so strongly. What is it that gives Iran and Syria such
influential roles in Russian and Chinese foreign policy that they are willing
to flaunt NATO so badly? If US and Israeli intel sources both agree that Iran
has not even decided to pursue a nuclear weapon, why is the US and Isreal on
the brink of war with them?

Then I read an article which talks about the New Silk Road that lies in
Eurasian oil and natural gas pipelines that the US, Russia, and China have
long been fighting over. I had no idea that Iran holds the world's second
largest reserves of natural gas, and that China had signed a $120 billion gas
exploration and supply deal with Iran -- one which China is seriously banking
on as their energy needs are skyrocketing.

I'm not familiar with the writer of the article, but the data seems to be
pretty convincing. The beginning of the article seems to interpret some quotes
a little loosely and almost made me stop reading, but I think that the thesis
the author goes on to explain is quite compelling. I don't think that this is
the only reason we are seeing what we are seeing, but it might play quite a
role in it.

"Are the Wars in the Middle East and North Africa Really About Oil?"
<http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/8558>

Edit: Citation for US and Israeli intel agreement on Iran not having decided
to pursue a nuclear program:
[http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/18/world/middleeast/iran-
inte...](http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/18/world/middleeast/iran-intelligence-
crisis-showed-difficulty-of-assessing-nuclear-data.html?_r=0) Note that
President Obama is having MEK removed from the US list of terrorist
organizations, perhaps to give them greater freedom to get intel (or simply
damage things)

~~~
stevesearer
It is also of interest to note that Afghanistan is sitting atop a huge lode of
rare earth minerals: <http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2936>

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leoh
This article is very misleading. While it's true that we have been concerned
about Iran's nuclear capabilities for quite a long time, the article omits
several concentrated efforts that have prevented the country from developing
nuclear capabilities over the years. For example, in the late eighties, Israel
bombed a nuclear reactor before its completion. If Israel's bombing or other
efforts hadn't been carried out over the years, Iran would have nuclear
capability. Several times over the last 25 years, Iran has in fact been close
to having nuclear capabilities.

~~~
stevesearer
I'm not crying foul on what you've stated, but I'd be interested in reading
some accounts of those efforts.

The one attack that I thought was against Iran was actually against Iraq:
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera>

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mattmaroon
That doesn't mean the current threat isn't real. This is an implied cum hoc
fallacy.

~~~
Herring
You're quite right! In fact the one reliable way to be sure the current threat
isn't real is to invade.

~~~
pyre
Once we've invaded, then we can also say, "Well, they _would_ have been a
threat had we not invaded," if we don't find anything! It's fool-proof!

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kephra
So the Iran nuclear threat is a 'cry wolf' for 33 years.

Two side notes:

\- The Iran has a light water reactor that is not suited for breeding a bomb.
You need a Russian type graphite moderated reactor, or even better a cold
heavy water reactor for this.

\- Enrichment is a requirement of this reactor type, but enrichment is the
slowest and most expensive way for producing the bomb. It would be stupid to
use centrifuges for enrichment, if you can produce heavy water much cheaper to
breed a bomb.

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serverhorror
Honestly I think the biggest nuclear threat comes from:

* US * Russia * France * China

I don't see why one country in the posession of nuclear weapons is less a
threat than any other.

Someone please explain that to me.

Especially since I know of only one (1) country that actually used nuclear
weapons in war....

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cotsuka
This doesn't even belong on the main page.

~~~
macspoofing
Politics have been slowly but surely creeping in to Hacker News.

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jonaldomo
Non print link: [http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-
East/2011/1108/Imminen...](http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-
East/2011/1108/Imminent-Iran-nuclear-threat-A-timeline-of-warnings-
since-1979/Earliest-warnings-1979-84)

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Tycho
Why can none of none of these countries make H-bombs?

