
Bill Gates predicts there will be almost no poor countries by 2035 - Libertatea
http://qz.com/168341/bill-gates-predicts-there-will-be-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035/
======
dredmorbius
There are multiple problems with Gates's predition, but two of the biggest are
these:

1\. Growth in real economic wealth is very strongly tied to growth in real
resource consumption. The master resource is energy, but numerous other
resources are in tight supply, with a critical set being "bauxite whose
production peaked in 1943), copper (1998), iron ore (1951), magnesium (1966),
phosphate rock (1980), potash (1967), rare earth metals (1984), tin (1945),
titanium (1964), and zinc (1969)" (from Richard Heinberg's _The End of Growth_
[1])

I've explored the concept of decoupling in greater length using Wolfram+Alpha
data to show the relationship between energy use and GDP for the G8 nations
plus China, India, and Brazil, as well as global growth, in the periods of
2000 - 2010, 1990 - 2012, and 1980-2012 (not all data available for all
periods, though the 2000 - 2010 data are complete for all nations analyzed).
While there's some sign of _very_ weak decoupling of energy and GDP growth,
principally in Japan and the USA, for global GDP growth, there's a very strong
relationship between GDP and energy usage, and both have been increasing. With
limited exceptions, global per capita energy use has _also_ been increasing.

[http://www.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/1vlksg/economic...](http://www.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/1vlksg/economic_decoupling_the_recent_relationship/)

2\. The second major problem is that the so-called Demographic Transition
which Gates and Hans Rosling like to trumpet is little more than a largely
unexplained phenomenon observed in _some_ but not _all_ data series. Tom "Do
the Math" Murphy, UCSD physics professor, has specifically looked at this with
regards to oil states, and makes the observation that "surplus energy makes
babies"[2]. This is significant for two reasons: it means that the demographic
transition isn't being observed in all countries, and it means that population
growth, and hence domestic energy consumption growth, is highest in the major
oil exporting nations. Growing domestic consumption means reduced availability
of energy for export markets -- a phenomenon known as the "export lands
model". Other research suggests that the causality link between development
rates and birth rates is less clear than popularly portrayed[3].

I could bore (or terrify) you with numerous other challenges: flat or falling
agricultural productivity, EROEI deficiencies in virtually every non-fossil
energy alternative, pandemics risks. There's a reason I don't get invited to
parties much .... But I think these two will do.

While I have respect for some of Bill Gates's work (and I'm by no means an
uncritical fan of his), his optimism here seems misplaced and founded on a
very incomplete portrayal of the situation.

____________________________

Notes:

1\. Sources:
[http://minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140/](http://minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140/)
and
[http://www.culturechange.org/cms/content/view/597/2/](http://www.culturechange.org/cms/content/view/597/2/)

2\. "The Real Population Problem" [http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-
math/2013/09/the-real-populat...](http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-
math/2013/09/the-real-population-problem/)

3\. "Revisiting demographic transition: correlation and causation in the rate
of development and fertility decline."
[http://www.iussp.org/sites/default/files/event_call_for_pape...](http://www.iussp.org/sites/default/files/event_call_for_papers/OSullivan_IUSSP27_DemographicTransition_FullPaper.pdf)

