

Military software predicts Greek default - chailatte
http://business.financialpost.com/2011/07/18/computer-program-predicts-greek-default/

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niels_olson
not to be too cynical, but any military, for lack of a better category, "fire-
control" software with an 85% success rate probably got that rate through very
conservative target selection and heavy-handed audit of results.

Full disclosure: I was a Navy Tactical Action Officer, the watchstander with
weapons release authority, on an aircraft carrier. It's pretty deeply
inculcated to not trust the machine. Is that blind job protectionism or
professionally sound paranoia? I don't know.

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dkokelley
That sounds like proper training. In life-and-death situations where the
luxury of at least some time is available, why would anyone trust the machine
without first manually evaluating the evidence. If our early warning system
for a nuclear attack from Russia gave us a warning, while it would be prudent
to automate some defensive measures like scrambling fighters and alerting our
forces, I doubt we would allow the defense system to have the authority to
retaliate on its own. It would need a human (several, actually) to verify the
information to the best of their ability and make the judgement calls
necessary to order any retaliation.

Given that this isn't a life-or-death situation, I think we can afford to go
with the machine's results until we see more evidence either supporting or
rejecting the Greek default.

BTW, that sounds like an incredibly cool job, although I imagine it was
probably more staying up all night with nothing going on. Still cool though.

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niels_olson
the issue of job protectionism comes up because there's some pretty decent
evidence that unmanned drones and missiles are better for certain jobs on the
offensive side, though we may come to that conclusion because it's not our
people dying in the blast (usually).

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antihero
I'm sure if we disregard ethics, and loss of human life can be taken as an
error calculation in a piece of software, then computer systems can be far
more efficient. However, I hope we're not at that point.

I mean if we were truly rational we could see that collateral damage could be
a factor in whether a campaign was successful, taking into account the
attitude of the conquered nation and how it may or may not affect insurgency
or resistance. Though I don't want to believe that's the reason we try to
preserve life.

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T_S_
Easy to scoff and funny too. However, note the input data used by the
software..

 _A release from the company explained that Senturion analyzed the positions
of leading EU officials, private financial institutions and Greek political
factions in the week following a critical parliamentary vote at the end of
June._

No balance sheet analysis, just verbiage. Combined with what?

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espeed
It's probably something similar to Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's game-theory
system, which is used by the CIA claims has a 90% success rate, even when the
experts who input the data get it wrong...

It only needs 4 types of input:

    
    
      1. Who has a stake in trying to shape the outcome.
      2. What they *say* they want.
      3. How focused they are on the issue compared to other issues.
      4. How much persuasive influence could they exert if they chose to engage on the issue.
    

[http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_pr...](http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_predicts_iran_s_future.html)

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StavrosK
In other news, military software predicts sun to rise tomorrow.

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vev
Genuine Greek sarcasm. :)

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StavrosK
At least we still have that :P

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hammock
LMAO at the photo caption: "Wherever Senturion is housed it probably looks a
lot like this, but more ominous and with blinkier lights."

~~~
TooSmugToFail
Thanks for this, completely missed it... :)

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TooSmugToFail
In theory, every issuer will eventually default. Question is whether it is
going to happen within the next 1, 5, 10 or 100 years.

What I'd like to know is at least what is their estimated probability of
default and the time horizon of this forecast e.g. "There's a X% chance that
Greece will default within the next Y months."

The CDS-implied probability of default (PD), as of July 8th, is roughly 41%
within the next 12 months, 66% within the next 2 years, 93% within the next 5
and 100% within the next 10 years.

So yeah, they're very likely to default soon(ish).

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btilly
I want to know about what this software predicts about whether the US
government will default next month...

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nburger
I stopped reading after glancing at the caption underneath the article's
image:

"Wherever Senturion is housed it probably looks a lot like this, but more
ominous and with blinkier lights."

That this statement is less than rigorous doesn't speak well for the remainder
of the article.

~~~
StavrosK
The remainder of the article is equally tongue-in-cheek.

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macmac
I wonder if the program was written by the guys behind the Patriot software...
<http://sydney.edu.au/engineering/it/~alum/patriot_bug.html>

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tomp
> It’s official: Greece is going to default, and there’s nothing anybody can
> do about it.

> That is, if you believe the word of a predictive software program

So that's how we define official now?

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run4yourlives
Blinkier lights. You can't explain that.

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clistctrl
From the markets point of view, I think the large majority of investors have
already assumed its going to happen.

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funkah
Yes, from everything I have read it seems to be a foregone conclusion.

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thematt
Yep, hence the need for intervention by other governments. The private sector
will no longer finance their debts (at least not with an interest rate they
can afford to pay).

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agento
You don't need military software for that. A bit of common sense and a healthy
skepticism of what officials try to tell you is enough.

They can delay the inevitable, but not save Greece' finances. You don't go out
of debt by taking on more debt while selling out your best assets at the same
time.

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mcantelon
The claims of any firm in the pay of the US military have to be taken with a
grain of salt (this may be propaganda to undermine the EU). That being said,
the prediction is likely correct.

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forgottenpaswrd
What about "common sense" predicts Greek default?

How is that this software do not predicts USA default too? USA is in the same
situation that Greece is and those Geniuses continue expending trillions in
Irak and Afghanistan.

Greece, USA, Japan, UK, Spain, Italy... those countries are going to default
one way or another because math is math and the magic of compound interest
exponential growing sometimes do not happen. They could use massive inflation
or face default, one way or another they are not going to pay what they
indebt.

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afterburner
"USA is in the same situation that Greece is"

Because that's not true. Check the debt loads vs GDP, for one. There is a
_stark_ difference. The US is far better off.

