
MH370 – what happened - sabon
http://mh370lost.tumblr.com/
======
jpdus
This theory is not plausible as Malaysian authorities announced that primary
radar returns suggest the plane turned SSW.[1] Additionally the airspace at
the Chinese coast is most likely closely monitored 24/7.

Another good source for information/speculation is the Airliners Thread,
currently at part 12: [http://www.airliners.net/aviation-
forums/general_aviation/re...](http://www.airliners.net/aviation-
forums/general_aviation/read.main/6018054)

[1] [http://www.frequentbusinesstraveler.com/2014/03/search-
for-m...](http://www.frequentbusinesstraveler.com/2014/03/search-for-missing-
malaysia-airlines-jet-moves-to-strait-of-malacca/)

~~~
apaprocki
If they managed to turn around partially before they understood what was going
on, autopilot could have continued in that direction as well. That could
possibly be why they're looking at the Malacca straights now instead of the
original search zone since primary radar supposedly detected the plane in that
vicinity at 2:40am, an hour after it went dark.

~~~
dhimes
Seems like they would have donned O2 masks, lowered altitude, and made for an
emergency landing.

------
bobbles
Interesting development on this flight. The co-pilot has a history of
welcoming people into the cockpit:

[http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-
updates/mh370-mystery-i...](http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-
updates/mh370-mystery-investigation-shifts-focus-to-thailand-crime-gangs-as-
debris-discarded-as-evidence/story-fnizu68q-1226850965067)

------
verde
Even if there was a slow decompression to 13,500 ft cabin altitude, almost no
one would be unconscious. Hypoxia begins to set in as early as 5000 ft, but
oxygen isn't even required in aircraft until you spend more than 30 minutes
about 12,500 ft. Above 15,000 ft the average time of useful consciousness is
still 30+ minutes.

~~~
ev0lution
Pilots are trained to 'detect' hypoxia but it is still /incredibly/ difficult.

 _> Even if there was a slow decompression to 13,500 ft cabin altitude, almost
no one would be unconscious._

This person's theory claims that the autopilot would /maintain/ the aircraft's
altitude. The cabin may slowly depressurise, but the altitude remains the
same. TUC at 35,000 feet - normal cruise altitude - is only 30 to 60 seconds
(on average!), which is nowhere near the 30 minute mark that it would be at
<15,000 feet.

I am not experienced enough to comment on the plausibility of other aspects of
this person's theory, but in terms of unconsciousness caused by decompression,
it definitely seems plausible.

~~~
verde
Though this article is likely dead I'll respond anyways. As the author notes,
when cabin altitude reaches 13,500 ft, oxygen masks automatically deploy. This
pretty much destroys the entire theory.

I agree about detecting hypoxia, it is very hard.

------
Shivetya
Considering China sent ships into the suspected area others are in I tend to
discount the idea they would have RADAR logs of it flying beyond that point.
They have no reason to lie about this one unless we have an incident similar
to the Russian shoot down of KAL 007

------
ohwp
Some pilots report debris @ N9.72 E107.42
[https://www.google.com/maps/place/9°43'12.0"N+107°25'12.0"E](https://www.google.com/maps/place/9°43'12.0"N+107°25'12.0"E))

Edit: satellite images are provided for a search:
[http://www.tomnod.com/nod/challenge/malaysiaairsar2014](http://www.tomnod.com/nod/challenge/malaysiaairsar2014)

------
bcraven
This suggestion mentions "300nm" and "50nm" distances. To my eye these are
'nanometres', so is this a typo or am I missing something?

~~~
t__r
It's a nautical mile (about 1.8 km). A standard unit of distance in aviation.

------
classicsnoot
A few thoughts:

Anyone here who is stating categorically 'this' or 'that' cannot/must happen
is uWotm8ing you. There is no compendium of mistakes. The systems layers of a
modern jumbo jet are so fantastically complex there will be unknown bugs for a
long time. The things cannot be flown or landed very well with out a computer
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HuGYrbSSP4](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HuGYrbSSP4)

The concept of flight is still enigmatic. Like Zicam, it is known only that it
works most times. How things fly is still a bit of a mystery.

If we are going to use '70s era analog blackboxes, where are going to keep
having these '70s era horror stories. I am completely miffed as to how NSA can
gather so much data from a relatively cheap and simple device, but blackbox
tech is still where it is at.

If you have the time,look into the US Military's crash record [if you can find
data...]. on the face of it, it would appear the war branches of american
diplomacy are slamming expensive gear into the ground almost daily. Are their
pilots shitty? Are the aircraft obsolete? No and yes, but the second one is
super interesting because even in the face of massive obsolescence the wreck
rate is relatively low. Also, the more shit you have up in the air, the more
likely it becomes that something will hit the ground. No matter the skill of
your Operators, if you fly birds constantly you will have constant issues.

If there was one thing that would change this particular situation, it would
be telemetry, but the facts of the matter are that there are places on our
planet that are unreachable, there are bugs and errors of which we are unaware
that we are unaware, and if you use outdated tech you give outdated info.

------
ColinWright
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7377690](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7377690)

------
hippoman
If oxygen masks don't deploy when cabin pressure falls enough to make the
passengers unconscious, then what is their purpose? It's hard to believe they
could have such a massive design fault. Is there no sensor that could detect
the depressurization?

~~~
cpncrunch
No, the guy is just misinformed. You won't become unconscious at 12500ft. In
fact it's perfectly legal to fly at 12000ft for 30 mins. Pikes Peak is 14115ft
and I don't think people are all becoming unconscious up there. Also there
will always be a very obvious alarm sounding when there is a depressurization.
In the Helios flight they just thought the warning was something else (i.e.
pilot error / incompetence).

------
imakesnowflakes
_Summary: It’s plausible that a fuselage section near the SATCOM antenna
adapter failed, disabling satellite based - GPS, ACARS, and ADS-B /C -
communications, and leading to a slow decompression that left all occupants
unconscious. If such decompression left the aircraft intact, then the
autopilot would have flown the planned route or otherwise maintained its
heading/altitude until fuel exhaustion._

May be I am wrong, but If the gps failed, how can the autopilot work?

~~~
stackcollision
Autpilots existed long before GPS. Most of an aircraft's sensors would be
considered primitive by the standards of this site, including measuring
airspeed by literally sticking a straw out of the nose.

I'm not too familiar with modern autopilots, but afaik the systems are not the
magic machines people think they are. All they do is hold course and speed by
monitoring sensors such as the pitot tube, air density gauge, gyroscope, and
compass.

When the summary says "planned route", they probably mean inputted heading and
altitude. The aircraft would carry enough fuel to complete the route from
start to finish, so we can infer that he means it will fly in a straight line
until it ran out of fuel, not that it would land at the destination airport
itself.

------
robokos
An aircraft flying unresponsive and undetetected into the most militarised
areas on the planet (China, North Korea, Vietnam etc) does not sound
plausible.

------
tonylemesmer
Would all the occupants of the aircraft suffer at the same time? I think not,
someone would notice and raise an alarm.

~~~
ev0lution
Hypoxia isn't friendly like that. You don't feel like you're losing oxygen,
you will just fall unconscious.

~~~
tonylemesmer
All 240? There would be some distribution.

------
snake_plissken
It seems crazy that 15 years after Payne Stewart's plane went down for this
exact reason, there are no cabin sensors (measuring partial-pressure of the
oxygen?) to alert the crew that there is a small leak. Am I missing something?

~~~
robryk
When an aircraft decompresses, the total pressure drops, so pressure sensors
are just as useful as oxygen partial pressure sensors. There are pressure
sensors in the cabin -- they are used to control the pressurization system,
sound low pressure alarms and deploy passenger air masks.

------
goatforce5
I guess spy satellites aren't as good as Hollywood has made out...

I would have imagined it wouldn't be that hard to point some satellites at the
search area and look for something on the surface of the water, or a new
impact area on land.

~~~
acheron
I'm sure Hollywood's depictions of spy satellites are just as accurate as its
depictions of hacking.

------
bruceb
Most planes do not crash because of terrorism/hijacking. It is unlikely this
one did either. Annoying to see media some stories harping on the possibility
it was hijacked when there is zero evidence.

------
coherentpony
Again, this is nothing more than wild speculation. We should just wait until
we find it and analyse the material on the black box.

------
brohee
Does he _seriously_ assume that the cabin pressure is not monitored?

------
clouds
This guy was onto something. The plane was last seen by military at Mallaca
Strait, opposite direction of search area.

Malaysian Military official tells Reuters plane flew for more than an hour
after vanishing from air traffic control screens

[http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/11/malaysia-
airlines-...](http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/11/malaysia-airlines-
military-idUSL3N0M835C20140311)

