
Covid-19 brought the 'largest criminology experiment in history' - harambae
https://nationalpost.com/news/paranoid-about-the-pandemic-how-covid-19-brought-the-largest-criminology-experiment-in-history/wcm/964870a2-86c8-4814-a34f-edf1bc76417e/
======
pwinnski
The key quote seems to be: "That drop in crime, though, has not been uniform
across types of offenses. Some crimes rose while others fell. A dissection of
the interplay of this rise and fall — at a time when human routines and
activities are largely frozen — may be the key, he says."

So crime is down dramatically, but not consistently, feeding one researcher's
favorite theory that crime is less about who is doing the crime and more about
circumstances. "His premise is crime happens when three things converge: a
capable offender, a suitable target and the absence of an appropriate
guardian."

~~~
sgc
But what a pedestrian, generic analysis that is. Based on that statement
offenders are just there, and the only thing we can do is get ever bigger,
more vigilant sticks since we are outside the situation and "it is what it
is". Sounds like the manifesto of broken modern policing.

Instead, places that work on social programs see crime drop, because even if
people are capable, they are not offenders since they have received the
intellectual, emotional, psychological, economic, etc assistance they needed.
Obviously some people will remain offenders and police are necessary. But by
now we should know better than this, and that type of statement should not be
the linchpin of any criminology.

~~~
cassianoleal
Yeah, my first thought when I read that was that it also takes a _willing_
offender.

I have been in many situations where I met all three criteria and still didn't
offend because I have the privilege of stronger morals, greater willpower and
a support network.

~~~
Izkata
Then you weren't an offender.

"Willing" is implied by the use of "offender" instead of "person".

------
crocodiletears
Our local PD has entirely stopped enforcing against low-level offenses unless
the perpetrator's name or location are known, and for several months were
dissallowed from performing traffic stops in order to keep the police healthy
for other more pressing calls.

If this is at all typical, I'm not certain how reliable any COVID-era crime
statistics are, and should probably be integrated into more generalized models
with the utmost care.

------
pyronik19
I'm more interested in the recidivism rates of criminals let out on COVID
compassionate release. In Maryland recently they released a rapist and he
murdered the victim. There are a bunch of anecdotes that warrant looking at
these dangerous policies and the risk we are putting towards the general
population to reduce the risk of exposure to criminals. I've thought it was a
foolhardy exercise to begin with.

------
tsherr
The National Post is Canada's Fox News. Read at your peril

------
buisi
Online crime is likely to rise with all the people who're locked at home with
nothing to do and are newly unemployed.

~~~
MaximumYComb
You also need to consider that the people with the skills to commit most
cybercrime are also likely to be working in roles where working from home is
suitable. It's the small businesses, retail/service workers and blue collar
areas that are being hit the hardest with unemployment due to covid.

