
The decentralization of the web is unlikely - tannhaeuser
https://blog.dshr.org/2018/01/it-isnt-about-technology.html
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nil_pointer
...Failed? It's just getting started.

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erikpukinskis
I know, these people have no patience. “The web was displaced by apps”,
“Facebook will control our social lives forever”. “Bitcoin has failed we are
permanent slaves to global financial institutions”....

If the software revolution is a year, we are in late February. Rugged winter
plants are growing slowly. Most things haven’t sprouted, let alone bloomed.
Megafauna are still in hibernation.

The fitness landscape in which permacode will evolve doesn’t even exist yet.

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toss1
Assuming the start of the software revolution with the Jacquard loom in early
1800s, Turing in mid-1900s, widely available microcomputers in the 1980s or
the public Internet in the 1990s?

(my vote is for Jacquard, otherwise it's late January)

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erikpukinskis
Maybe, yeah. I said late February just because I think the next couple decades
will see an explosion.

(To answer your question, I would put the invention of software at COBOL
probably. Jaquard and Turing were developing operations, not developing on
operations.)

I think we’re currently laboring under unnecessary complexity, enforced by a
single-minded control system (generate software structures controllable by
financial funds).

We’re already past the point where we can operate in a lower energy state (a
factor of 10 less code underlying our user-facing apps and a factor of 100
more software writers) and it’s just a matter of when in the next decade the
nucleation site will form.

At the point we’ll be in what I believe is a software spring.

Also, the development of the handheld limitless visual networked computer, and
the even more limitless cloud, isn’t nothing.

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toss1
Incoming explosion for sure! Just not sure of the form.

It'd certainly be nice to clear out the mountains of unnecessary complexity,
which may sort of make it 'easier' to spin up apps, but just squanders
computing power. Just using desktop app responsiveness as a proxy, it really
feels like the most responsive time was just pre-Windows or early WinNT, and
despite ever-increasing processing speed, cache, and RAM, the responsiveness
just gets mushy. & config mgt almost takes more time than coding. I'm hoping
that as Moore's law tapers off, we get somewhat forced back into valuing
efficient systems.

So, yes, when that nucleation site forms, it'll be nice, and a big burst of
power!

I'm sort of hoping that one part of it might take the form of greater power in
the handhelds, pulling back some computing out of the cloud and onto a more
independent old-desktop-style stand-alone high-capability machine, but I'm not
holding my breath. I'd expect it'll still be tapping lots of big datasets/AI
in the cloud...

We can hope for fun times ahead!

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mackrevinack
Personally, i would have waited until the SafeNetwork was up and running for a
few years before writing off the whole idea, but what do i know.

