
Ask HN: How will more corporate acceptance of remote work play out? - taurath
Given that Facebook, Google, Twitter, Shopify, Coinbase, and many more companies are announcing long term plans to allow for vastly more remote positions, what do you think the effects will be to:<p>* The economy overall?<p>* High priced localities (SV, SF, NYC, Seattle, etc)?<p>* Rural economies?<p>* Engineer pay?<p>* Workers on visas, H1Bs?
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grumple
I'm in a big city, but my company is fully remote. My salary is already on the
high end for my city.

I see a lot of people concerned about wages going down. I suspect wages will
go UP for most people as we're no longer trapped working with companies in our
cities. There might be some slight downward pressure at big tech as people
leave the bay for less expensive locales and are willing to accept less money
to work at those companies if they get to stay in, say, Texas or other cheaper
locales.

But in my opinion this is the greatest opportunity for workers in history -
your options for employment are now unlimited. Companies are going to have to
compete a lot harder to get the best talent when they now have to compete with
every other company in the world. I've seen some suggest that the opposite
would be true - companies can now get employees from anywhere. While true,
companies have always had more power to hire from wherever they want - it's
always been much harder as an individual to pick up and move your family
across the country. You'll probably find it easier to get remote contracting
work, too.

I expect this will cause some downward pressure on bigger city property
values. Might cause a slight uptick for smaller cities and suburban areas.
Rural areas might not have good enough internet yet and are spacious enough
that they won't be very affected.

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droptablemain
This is a rather optimistic view. Historically speaking, the capitalist class
generally wields enough financial and political power to prevent a massive
transfer of power to workers. We've seen this with the buildup and erosion of
labor movements in the 20th century and since.

So whatever inherit or natural benefits may come about for workers due to the
remote work boom, it's likely these gains will be purposefully offset.

~~~
take_a_breath
I think the really question here is, what is the motivation for corporations
to make this type of shift? History shows us it often isn’t to do what’s best
for workers in the long-run.

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rayhendricks
I’d be curious about the potential for remote work in somewhere like NW or
even central Mexico for remote positions? It would be possible to use zoom
meetings for most things and when Covid is over it’s not that far from most
places on the west coast. I’d think this would be a much better alternative to
Eeu/Russia/India.

There are of course the cartels which need to be dealt with.

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twunde
Workers on vias, H1Bs aren't really affected by remote work too much. They are
affected by the rules that the administration has put in place around them.
Visas are not being issued currently (I've got one co-worker stranded in his
home country when he was getting ready to do his final GC interview). This
really means that individuals on existing visas won't move jobs, foreign
students graduating won't be able to get jobs within the US, and foreign
citizens won't be able to get jobs within the US. Essentially, a significant
portion of engineers in the hiring pool are no longer available. This may
result in high engineer pay, although that's probably cancelled out by the
number of companies who've had to do large layoffs.

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kondu
Can you please elaborate? what new rules by the administration are you talking
about?

~~~
Spooky23
In April, green card registration and issuance was suspended.

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tmaly
I think there will be some interesting dynamics between states.

Look at places like Florida or Texas without income tax, they are going to be
able to draw away workers from states with higher income taxes.

This will create some revenue issues for states that rely on higher income
taxes. I believe this will put further pressure on businesses and others that
cannot perform work remotely.

~~~
NotSammyHagar
The pay in Seattle is generally about the same as bay area pay based on my exp
(although people have quibbled with this). We have no state income tax, so
wouldn't that be appealing? Texas is hot, Seattle is cooler and rainier,
Florida is Florida ;-), everything has tradeoffs. If you just lived ~30 miles
outside of seattle you'd be able to get a very inexpensive house and pass the
"arguably working in seattle area" test.

My question is still what's the limit on 'claiming to work in <big city> area'
when I'm fully remote. If I was working in a vacation house 30 miles away and
my company is fully remote, then my tax situation is the same. I'm not moving
there, it's my vac home say. Facebook et al need to define what working in the
big city means? 50.1% or 183 or 4 days in the city? I know someone who was
commuting into Seattle for 1.5 hours each way every other day, working at a
seattle company. He's happy working from home now. Would he be working in
seattle if he was at facebook?

I want the freedom to live in a cabin in the woods for a month with good
internet.

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s09dfhks
well FB just announced that engineers keen on moving out of CA will get salary
adjustments. Itd be silly to think you can move to rural Idaho and keep your
500k/yr TC

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grumple
If Google is willing to pay 500 but FB says you get cut to 250... you're going
to work for Google. The companies will pay out as long as they get good
returns on the money. Location will become irrelevant for pay.

If companies say you'll get a pay cut, it presents an excellent opportunity to
poach some talent.

~~~
shakkhar
Once Google realizes that people are willing to work for 250k, there really is
no reason for them to continue to offer 500k. The salary inflation in the Bay
area is at least partially fueled by a shortage of people willing to move
there. There really is no way of extending the hiring pool while keeping
salary at Bay area level.

~~~
s09dfhks
Thats a very good point!

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sirmoveon
The game will shift to a competition among state and local government
policies. We already know how this game ends. More profit for corporate; less
rights for the workforce.

~~~
NotSammyHagar
I disagree. What state or local govt policies matter, except maybe taxes?
There are a bunch of states with no state income tax, probably even more with
less state & local taxes than Cali. People already move to Seattle from SF
because of no state income taxes and similar salaries (it's exp. in seattle
but cheaper than sf, it's crowded in seattle but less than sf, etc).

I think there are about 5 tiers.

1\. High taxes & many jobs and high salary (SF, NY),

2\. None or minimal state/local taxes and semicrowded (Florida?) and medium or
lower salary,

3\. no taxes but high salary area (Seattle), high expenses,

4\. some taxes but medium salary (Portland),

5\. less or no taxes and more rural and not much remote work (most of the
midwest or south outside big cities), much lower comp today.

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buboard
bad news for equal opportunity in hiring

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andarleen
I may add to this list:

Workers mental health?

Workers standard of living?

