
Ask HN: Where is the evidence that learning COBOL pays and is in demand? - ornornor
Recent events made the story that COBOL runs the world and yet only retiring old timers still know it, thus creating a massive shortage, high demand, high salaries make the rounds again.<p>But I’ve never been able to find actual evidence of this. Only people who keep repeating that it’s true and that people should learn COBOL.<p>I’m interested in learning because I’m tired of running on the JavaScript treadmill for the last 10 years. Has anyone got real data? When I search for cobol in the usual job websites I get very few results compared to java, JavaScript, etc.<p>When I look up rates and salary info, I only get nonspecific information like “6 figures yearly.” SE pay in the US and other firs world economies is around the 100k ballpark. Six figures isn’t specific to cobol.<p>What is it then? Does cobol really pay multiples more than any other language? Is the demand really there or is it all absorbed by consultancies like Deloitte and tata?
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zhte415
I've worked with companies that provide COBOL contractors and no, it does not
pay well. The vast amount of fees collected from clients go to consultancies
that train-up interns in South Asia (have huge staff turnover) and these
interns-cum-employees A: Stick with it in the hopes of being directly employed
by their client (which happens, a F500 job in South Asia remains a big deal
for many), or B: See those that did other technologies get paid much better
after only a couple of years but get locked-in to their vendor through wider
skills.

Niche technology skills can become suddenly in-demand, and in Y2k COBOL
certainly was. Is there another Y2k event hitting COBOL? The higher paying
jobs are only in architecture roles which means intimately knowing a vast
code-base (product-specific) rather than COBOL itself.

This is my anecdotal observation having worked with COBOL/CICS/DB2 teams over
a few years.

I also agree with the comments from smt88. Haskell would take a tad longer to
get proficient in but once so you could sneeze in the direction of a large
company that uses it like, I don't know, StanChart, and probably get a good
offer. COBOL's not like that. Unless you're particularly experienced on a
particular code base, it's easy to cycle-in a replacement (for any large
employer).

~~~
apohn
To support this, some anecdotal data. Back in 1997 somebody I knew with no
programming experience who joined a big Indian Consultancy. They trained him
on COBOL and some other technologies that were in high demand for Y2K stuff in
the US. He got placed in a lot of small towns where IT back-offices were
located (not sure why, maybe because the servers were there?). His US salary
was good, but not anything special compared to other developer salaries at the
time.

There were a lot of articles back then about how knowing COBOL was a ticket to
a great job and salary, but it wasn't all that true back then even with Y2K
getting closer.

So you are basically learning a niche language that may or may not last and
you may have to move to a less desirable (in terms of availability of tech
jobs) place.

The point is that even back then you could scour resumes from US based people
or you could contract with a large Indian company and they would make
contractual promises about a certain number of trained employees always being
on site.

Somebody is going to crib about the quality of these employees, but that isn't
the point. The point is that it's easier to hire them than it is to hire you.

------
smt88
I have one anecdote. It may not be enlightening for you at all.

My high school CS teacher made ~$50k per year doing quick contract jobs
working on COBOL, mostly for factories in the Ohio area.

These jobs were never posted online. Once the companies found a contractor to
fix the systems, they just kept using the same one, not unlike a homeowner who
has a favorite plumber.

It's very likely that the majority of the COBOL community is hidden from
online searches because churn is low and/or they don't use reddit,
StackOverflow, etc.

The things I've read about Haskell remind me of what people are saying about
COBOL now. Very few companies use Haskell, but the ones that are using it can
sometimes be desperate to find a Haskell expert and will pay a lot for one.

------
dragonwriter
COBOL doesn't have a lot of jobs; the systems that are still running are old,
stable, and get rare and mostly minor changes.

There is _little_ and _shrinking_ steady-state demand and that's mostly met by
the a dwindling pool of old-timers and internal staff that get trained by
their workplace to assist or replace the old-timers.

On the other hand, occasionally one of those big enterprises (public or
private) encounters an urgent, immediate need for some new work on one of
those systems, and it's those moments where there is an intense premium for
COBOL programmers because there's little idle capacity to take up a temporary
demand surge. (E.g., right now with some state unemployment systems suddenly
needing substantial rules changes and modifications to handle order-of-
magnitude volume increases over baseline capacity.)

~~~
apohn
If you look at the articles about NJ's unemployment systems, the governor is
asking for volunteers, not offering jobs with high pay. Read into that
whatever you want.

------
GoldenMonkey
Banking software developer here. Cobol is specialized and mainly for
maintenance. In banks. Has been mainly phased out, if it can be.

It is an investment in a dead/dying language. Why is that worth your time and
effort? Have you tried Cobol programming? Do you like it? I dropped out of my
Cobol class in college. Was mind-numbingly boring and archaic to work with.

Are you trying to find a viable alternative to JavaScript? That pays 6
figures? You could pivot your javascript skills into something like react-
native... mobile app development.

~~~
ornornor
> Are you trying to find a viable alternative to JavaScript? That pays 6
> figures? You could pivot your javascript skills into something like react-
> native... mobile app development.

I’m trying to find a slower alternative to JS. Il getting a bit tired of
having to constantly learn this week’s JS fashion just to stay relevant. I was
hoping to find something more niche and not as glamorous that would give me
more time to do things I enjoy instead of work.

I was considering cobol because the spec probably is rather stable, and if it
paid well and was in demand then it was a winning combination.

But from your comment and others, it doesn’t seem to be it because overseas
sweatshops are already filling the demand.

I wonder where do these people who say cobol pays well and is in demand get
their information from. There is no other evidence than “people say”

~~~
cpach
AFAICT there are lots of viable programming languages that has a more stable
ecosystem than JavaScript. Python, C#, Java, maybe Go, are a few that comes to
mind.

~~~
apohn
If you want a stable language that matches with lower stress jobs try Java and
work for an established B2B company. Lots of established B2B companies have
Java based products they built a few years ago and they need people to work on
those products. Assuming they have a healthy revenue stream, they are going to
be focused on keeping the system stable and keeping their customers happy.
They aren't going to be chasing the latest fad or the updating their Java
version as quickly as possible.

One benefit is that if you dislike your job, there are plenty of places
looking for Java programmers. Compare that to COBOL, where the market is tiny.

