
Selection bias and bombers (2008) - awjr
http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/
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JacobAldridge
Interesting - I had always thought of this as an urban legend to demonstrate
survivor / selection bias. I always love to discover some source material -
[http://cna.org/sites/default/files/research/0204320000.pdf](http://cna.org/sites/default/files/research/0204320000.pdf)

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jacquesm
I liked this version:

[http://youarenotsosmart.com/2013/05/23/survivorship-
bias/](http://youarenotsosmart.com/2013/05/23/survivorship-bias/)

~~~
Stratoscope
Thanks for posting that link. It is a much better telling of the story, and a
much better explanation of survivorship bias.

~~~
circlefavshape
I _much_ prefer the johndcook article. No banging on about "geniuses", just a
to-the-point explanation

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chippy
Same with criminals.

Criminals are the ones that failed.

Successful criminals are unknown as we never get to know about them as they
are never captured.

(Insert edge cases about gangsters writing their memoirs, petty crime etc etc
)

~~~
awda
Or that successful criminals are like unicorns ;-).

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TillE
Nah. I'm not aware of the statistics for unsolved violent crime (it's
certainly not zero), but the ongoing drug trade is a pretty good example
itself.

Not just anyone can manufacture MDMA or LSD. There's the occasional bust, but
clearly smart people are getting away with it.

~~~
awda
MDMA is a lot easier than LSD, and dumb people get away with just selling Meth
(even easier) as MDMA. But ok, maybe some people get away with making
synthetic chemicals for some period of time. I don't know that it's
necessarily the same people, as opposed to an unending supply of people
willing to join the illegal trade. _shrug_

I expect long-term expected returns of the drug trade are negative, but people
aren't good at evaluating risk.

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biesnecker
Reminds me of setting goals for my team around "things that are not to
happen." How well have we done if none of those things did indeed happen? How
close were we to disaster and just didn't know it?

With, obviously, very different stakes.

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gohrt
Longer writeup with actual sources here:
[http://youarenotsosmart.com/2013/05/23/survivorship-
bias/](http://youarenotsosmart.com/2013/05/23/survivorship-bias/)

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npsimons
Reminds me of this (seen in /usr/bin/fortune):

 _Certain old men prefer to rise at dawn, taking a cold bath and a long walk
with an empty stomach and otherwise mortifying the flesh. They then point with
pride to these practices as the cause of their sturdy health and ripe years;
the truth being that they are hearty and old, not because of their habits, but
in spite of them. The reason we find only robust persons doing this thing is
that it has killed all the others who have tried it. \-- Ambrose Bierce, "The
Devil's Dictionary"_

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btilly
There is more to this story. If you have an hour, I highly recommend watching
The Secret History of Silicon Valley. See
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTC_RxWN_xo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTC_RxWN_xo)
for a link.

The other side of this story came up there. The real solution to the bomber
problem turned out to not be armor, but to start dumping strips of aluminum
foil out of the bombers to confuse enemy radar.

~~~
dfc

      > See ... for a link
    

Is the link you provide a link to the The Secret History of Silicon Valley? Or
should we listen to the presentation to find the link to The Secret History?

~~~
btilly
The presentation is the secret history.

For many hours of further education, see [http://steveblank.com/secret-
history/](http://steveblank.com/secret-history/) which links to the same
place, then has a blog series about how that one came to be, and the continued
history.

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Nogwater
This work by Wald is mentioned in this genetics lecture:
[http://youtu.be/BJm5jHhJNBI](http://youtu.be/BJm5jHhJNBI)

I recommend it if you're interested.

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mattmanser
He's updated his website. Looks much better. Though I did like the ship.

