
Windows Phone is headed for a life of fragmentation - evo_9
http://www.extremetech.com/computing/126571-windows-phone-is-headed-for-a-life-of-fragmentation
======
JohnnyFlash
The only reason I haven't brought a Windows Phone is because I am stuck in a
contract at the moment. Once that expires I WAS going to get one.

I am not sure any more. I have an iPad and I am used to free system updates. I
expect to get IOS updates until it becomes impractical for the specifications
of my device to run the next IOS version. Basically, I expect IOS updates for
3-4 years.

I expected the same with my Android phone. Alas.. that didn't happen. I got
one update after a year and am still on some outdated version of Android. This
is why I won't be getting another Android device.

I figured Windows Phone would be more like the iPad where you get updates for
a couple of years. I thought that the cash cow was the app store, not the OS
so keeping everyone that can be on the same version of the OS would be very
beneficial.

In short.. if WP7 users get left behind it would really put me off getting a
Windows Phone 8 phone. What is the point when I will almost certainly be
abandoned by the next update.

~~~
ryanmolden
I don't believe the app store on any platform is a "cash cow". Apple makes the
vast majority of their profit selling the device itself, Microsoft charges
OEMs a per unit license fee. I suspect the app store, like iTunes, is break
even or even perhaps a net negative as far as financials go.

------
andyjohnson0
Not this again. Android devices are 'fragmented' but Android seems to be doing
okay as an OS. So are Windows pcs. And Linux PCs. And probably every hardware
type up to mainframes.

What __is __it with this obsession with OS fragmentation? I understand that it
makes apps harder to develop/test/support, but we've been dealing with this
situation for >20 years on PCs.

Is it just me, or are there a lot of articles criticising Windows Phone right
now? I'm happy with my Android phone and have no wish to go to WP, but it (WP)
seems like a reasonable OS to me. I wish MSFT/Nokia well with it.

This kind of FUD is disappointing.

~~~
fpgeek
I wouldn't say this article is generating FUD - it is pointing out FUD that
already exists. One of WP7's selling points over Android was supposed to be
consistency of updates. Now it looks like that is falling apart with carriers
blocking minor updates and no one on the record about upgrades to Windows
Phone 8 (and Microsoft passing up more than one opportunity to confirm
upgradeability).

Look, there are plenty of things you can say about Android's update situation,
but at least you can get manufacturers on the record saying they will upgrade
some devices to ICS. On the Windows Phone side, you can't even get that for
the most recently released flagship. That's pretty bad from a support
perspective whether or not you care about "fragmentation" (which I'll agree is
generally overblown).

------
protomyth
My worry about this isn't if the upgrade is going to happen as much as it is
about the lack of a definitive yes / no from Microsoft. I'm having a tough
time believing at this stage of development that someone inside Microsoft
doesn't know. If it was upgradable then a press release would probably
increase sales as fears would be eased.

If its not, I really wonder about Nokia and what they are thinking and what
the actual state of the Microsoft / Nokia relationship is. If its not
upgradeable, then they got the mindset of a lot of other companies that are
irritating their customers with a "buy a new phone to upgrade" attitude.

~~~
freehunter
I have a Focus right now, and was considering buying a Lumia, but the wavering
has me waiting. On the other hand, there might not be an answer because they
might not know. Windows 8 isn't finished, they may be pushing to reach their
goals. If it comes down to pushing back the release date or cutting features,
the Windows team has always erred on the side of cutting features. They have
enterprise customers depending on the set-in-stone release date.

WP8 will be relying on W8 to ship. If W8 is holding them back, they may not
yet know if they're going to be able to make the upgrade.

~~~
jwoah12
Didn't the Vista release date get delayed by almost a year? Don't get me
wrong, I think Microsoft has come a long way since that debacle, but I
wouldn't say that they have always erred on the side of cutting features (I
would say the opposite).

~~~
freehunter
Vista saw them cutting features (such as a new kernel and new file system).
Windows 7 saw them doing the same. They've always erred on that side, but
didn't always strictly adhere to it. They did cut features from Vista to make
their delayed release date.

------
97s
Articles like these are such a waste of writing. This is pure speculation as
jinushaun has said. I would assume Microsoft has learned their lesson now that
they are trying to force updates on IE. Why would they take a polished product
like WP7, and abandon it creating a ton of technical problems... My wife
absolutely loves her HTC Titan, and I hope she isn't forced to be stuck with
an old OS forever.

~~~
towndrunk
I upgraded to a Lumia 900 from an iPhone 4 and I'm really liking WP7. I'm
looking forward to WP 8 even if I have to buy a new phone to run it.

~~~
illumin8
How do you plan on upgrading this fall, when you're locked into a 2 year
contract and you're ineligible for a new device?

~~~
towndrunk
I will wait until I'm eligible for another phone obviously. Hopefully, by this
time some of the kinks will be worked out of the new WP8 software. I'm
completely happy with WP7 right now so I don't need an immediate update to
WP8. I can wait.

------
nextparadigms
I don't understand the allure of WP7. It's the worst of both worlds. If you
want long term updates and a simple interface, plus the biggest mobile app-
store with all the latest and hottest apps - get an iPhone.

If you want to pick whatever hardware you want, and through many variations,
with software that gives you maximum control over it, especially if you root
it - get an Android phone.

What does WP7 offer? Much weaker ecosystem, more expensive applications, less
visually appealing games, the hardware is pretty much the same on all the
phones (which makes me wonder why they even bother having multiple models),
the technology is at least 1 year behind, sometimes 2, and it doesn't even get
updates in the long term like the iPhone.

If Nokia didn't happen to make a nicely designed phone, we probably wouldn't
even be talking about WP7 at all right now, which also leads me to think what
a strategically poor decision Samsung and HTC took when they decided to
support WP7. Because Microsoft is now only helping Nokia and Nokia gets all
the credit for WP7. If they didn't support WP7 for a year, they could've
gotten rid of one of their largest competitors (Nokia) for good by now.

~~~
clarky07
I've developed apps for iPhone, Android, and WP7. While I use and prefer
iPhone myself, I find WP7 to be vastly superior to the Android devices I've
used. I'd recommend iPhone to people asking me, but for the people who just
don't like Apple I'd recommend WP7 over Android.

As for whether or not they give an upgrade to 8 frankly it doesn't matter from
a business standpoint. There just aren't enough people with WP7 phones at this
point. It's not the same as comparing Android 2.2 when WP7 only has 1% of the
smartphone market.

~~~
fpgeek
I don't think it is that simple. Yes, there aren't that many people using WP7,
but that also means that the user base they do have is mostly a core of
diehard fans, evangelists and developers. Pissing them off by not even
upgrading your brand-new, heavily-promoted flagship device isn't exactly
getting WP8 started off on the right foot now is it?

~~~
clarky07
Oh don't get me wrong I absolutely think they should be upgrading the WP7
phones to WP8. The fragmentation in Android is such a huge pain. Building apps
for 2.2 because I have to sucks when 4+ is out. I was just suggesting the
magnitude of the problem isn't as big as it is on Android, assuming they don't
make a habit of it and WP8 upgrades for a long time.

~~~
fpgeek
True, it is less of an issue for developers (especially since they're
promising forward compatibility for apps). I'm just saying from the broader
perspective of surprising and pissing of core fans, not updating to WP8
probably hurts WP more than the continuing update woes hurt Android (since at
least some devices are getting updates and the overall situation isn't a
surprise).

------
untog
I have a Windows Phone that I bought back in November, but I just ordered an
HTC One S and will be making my way back to Android. I want to love Windows
Phone, I really do. I'm a UI nerd and the WP UI is _fantastic_. But there are
too many little glitches and issues- not to mention the lack of third party
support for apps).

Not only that, the support structure is broken. For example, my phone has one
particularly annoying bug: the keyboard keeps disappearing when I type.
Microsoft saw the problem, and released an update to fix it. But AT&T have
decided that they're not going to implement it, so I'm stuck with a buggy
phone. With a track record like that, I might not get WP8 even if MS wants me
to.

The cellphone providers should have zero involvement in phone updates. It
should be like the iPhone- direct from the source. At least with Android it's
relatively easy to replace the ROM when the phone stops being supported...

~~~
kooshball
ATT have announced they will release that keyboard bug fix in an update.
[http://mobile.theverge.com/2012/4/11/2941969/att-planning-
wi...](http://mobile.theverge.com/2012/4/11/2941969/att-planning-windows-
phone-update-8107-and-more)

~~~
untog
Better than nothing I suppose, but the update was released in January and it's
still not here. Insane.

------
jimbobimbo
I bought Lumia 900 the day it was put up on sale online, and I'm not pissed
about the possibility of not getting an upgrade to WP8. This whole uncertainty
on Microsoft's side might be pointing to some issues with running WP8 on the
"old" hardware. And you know what - it's OK. I'd rather have an "obsolete"
solid phone rather that a bag of hurt in my pocket that I'll get just because
it's "latest and greatest". Surely, I'll appreciate having an upgrade path,
but its presence or absence is not something that would be deciding reason for
me.

Now, if Nokia would not react fast to the connectivity issues they had after
launch - that's something that would really upset me. But so far they were
very good.

~~~
gouranga
No issues with the 710 and it's a shit load cheaper!

------
jsz0
As bad as the Android OS update situation is at least there's a fairly good
chance you can root and install a custom ROM if you really want the latest &
greatest OS. This would be difficult or impossible with Windows Phone devices.
It's still unbelievable to me Apple is the only major player who supports all
their devices with software updates for an extended period of time. (not just
bug fixes but adding real value post-sale)

~~~
tseabrooks
I don't think the problem with the Android situation is that users don't get
the new OS. The bigger problem (for me at least) is the frustration of being
locked into 2.2 unless I want to greatly reduce my market size when writing
android apps. My iPhone apps can target 5.0 and get 95% of the market. If I go
to 2.3 I lose ~20+ percent of the market. Let's not even consider what you
lose by going to 3.0+.

~~~
clarky07
and the fact that 3 isn't current, 4 is. if you develop for the latest and
greatest you get what, like 5% of the market.

~~~
fpgeek
It really depends on what latest-and-greatest features you want for your app.
Google (and a few others) have invested a lot of effort in porting back new
Android features with compatibility libraries (e.g. Fragments) so what you
want is covered by them, there's little or no compromise. On the other side,
Google has also developed a careful reflection / late-binding framework that
often makes it straightforward for apps to gracefully degrade their uses of
new APIs. That gives developers another way to take advantage of new features
while retaining broad compatibility.

------
jinushaun
This is all speculation.

~~~
melling
Given Microsoft's position, wouldn't it be best if they simply announced that
the Lumia will be upgradable? If they want to win the "hearts and minds" of
people, they should make the extra effort to allay any and all worries.

~~~
mrsebastian
Aye, the fact that no official announcement has been made is telling, I think.
I suspect it's more likely that MS simply doesn't _know_ if it's going to
provide a WP7>WP8 upgrade path.

FWIW, WP8 is really quite different from WP7 -- as far as we know, it's based
on the Windows 8 kernel, and will presumably have the same/similar Metro/WinRT
app stack.

It might just be that the WP7 hardware spec (which is now 2-3 years old) just
won't reliably run WP8.

~~~
balakk
Could be a technical+political battle raging inside.

History shows that backward compatibility guys usually win in MS. I would be
really surprised if they decide to NOT support older devices.

------
brudgers
> _"Your device is forever stuck with Windows Phone 7."_

I've got a laptop from 2004 that is stuck with XP and one from 2001 that is
stuck with 2000. Both still do the limited tasks for which I use them. Closer
to home, I have a Nokia E71 running S60 Feature Pack 1. It too does everything
I need it to do when I use it.

Most people aren't gadget freaks. Microsoft has a strong track record of
helping consumers avoid upgrading their OS when their hardware won't support
it, e.g. Vista, 7, and 8 CP.

Microsoft may have sins, but they are not those of Google or Apple (e.g.
Siri).

------
gravitronic
Question for the crowd:

Can I write Windows Phone 7/8 apps in C/C++?

I have an app, DJPad, which from one codebase I've got running on HP TouchPad,
Android, and Playbook (and soon iOS). I would love to add framework support
for Windows Phone 7 via an SDL port but everywhere I look I only see .NET/XNA
programmability.

~~~
fpgeek
No (though I've heard that device manufacturers might be able to).

That being said, one of the other rumors floating around is that this might
change for Windows Phone 8.

------
zaptheimpaler
All this drama over one WP update when this happens every couple of months to
millions of Android users.

~~~
fpgeek
And doesn't happen to millions of others (particularly those who buy Nexus or
other higher-end devices).

In fact, it is entirely possible that there are more _ICS_ devices "in the
wild" than there are WP7 devices. If not, there will be soon (with the various
upgrades and new devices rolling out).

~~~
zaptheimpaler
The fact remains that if it does happen to millions of users, something is
terribly wrong.

It's pretty likely that there are more ICS devices than there are WP devices,
but then again, they've been in the market for longer and ICS devices
represent phones from many handset manufacturers as opposed to just one. It's
like comparing browsers which use WebKit to IE alone, it's an apples to
oranges comparison that won't tell you much. Besides, I'm not arguing that WP7
is superior, just that the article isn't stating all the facts that it should.

~~~
fpgeek
> The fact remains that if it does happen to millions of users, something is
> terribly wrong.

Not necessarily. Android targets a much wider range of price points than any
other smartphone OS (tied with or lower-end than Symbian all the way up to
flagship iPhone competitors). Personally, I'm not terribly troubled if the
sub-$100 no-contract Android (down to $49.99 last time I checked) that someone
bought for prepaid use never gets updated (and there are millions of those).
In fact, if someone wants to make that trade-off (explicitly or implicitly)
for a dirt-cheap device, why shouldn't they be able to?

That being said, I'm not saying there aren't plenty of examples carriers and
manufacturers not making the effort they should. There clearly are (the
original Galaxy S is probably the most prominent example of this). I'm just
saying that millions of devices not getting updated is not by itself an
indication of a problem. To me, the real indication of a problem is that there
are too many contract-subsidized and/or higher-end devices not getting
reasonable updates (or, in the worst cases, any updates at all).

------
Flemlord
They're talking about a one-time break in forward (but not backward)
compatibility as they consolidate Phone OS into the main Windows 8 code base.
Certainly not a "life of fragmentation". If anything this guarantees there
won't be fragmentation going forward since phones will be running standard
Windows. A consolidated code base where Windows apps run on phones, tablets
and desktops is worth the hassle IMHO.

~~~
fpgeek
One-time break? Did you forget that no Windows Mobile 6.5 devices got an
upgrade to Windows Phone 7? That's starting to look like a pattern.

~~~
gouranga
That's a technical constraint. Totally different ARM architecture, platform
and hardware specification!

~~~
fpgeek
Um, the developers over at XDA seem to have gotten a solid WP7.5 build working
on the HTC HD2. That says to me that there weren't any technical barriers to
upgrading at least one WM 6.5 device...

~~~
gouranga
That's not really a typical 6.5 device tbh.

------
melling
How will the API's change? Small update like going from iOS4 to iOS5?

~~~
gouranga
Probably very little change. MS are pretty good with API stability.

I'm using the same .Net APIs as 2002 in a current LOB application.

------
recoiledsnake
This reminds of the whole 'MS is killing .NET' articles that were taken for
fact a few months ago.

Eg: "Are .NET programmers going extinct?" "Are .NET developers the next buggy
whip makers?" <http://radar.oreilly.com/2011/06/devwir-net-java-html5.html>

There are rumors both ways about whether existing WP7 devices will get WP8:

[http://wmpoweruser.com/rumor-windows-phone-8-being-tested-
on...](http://wmpoweruser.com/rumor-windows-phone-8-being-tested-on-nokia-
lumia-800-new-features-detailed/)

For good or bad, MS is being tightlipped about a lot of things these days, and
taking speculation for granted hits the credibility of the article writers.

~~~
freehunter
I really wish people would stop submitting ExtremeTech articles. Their writing
is bullshit, their reporting is speculative, and their staff doesn't seem to
care about facts or legitimacy. They're the Perez Hilton of tech journalism.
They make Gizmodo seem like a bastion of integrity.

~~~
DanBC
> _I really wish people would stop submitting ExtremeTech articles._

I agree.

There are only a few people submitting ExtremeTech articles.

[http://www.hnsearch.com/search#request/all&q=%28extremet...](http://www.hnsearch.com/search#request/all&q=%28extremetech.com%29)

~~~
freehunter
I actually saw one ExtremeTech article that was submitted by the author. I
really would have liked to have a conversation with the author and figure out
if it's the editorial staff or the writers who decide what to post and how
much they're going to support it with facts.

Unfortunately (fortunately?) the article that was submitted was actually of a
decent quality level and I couldn't find anything to disagree with. I didn't
want to call out the author to make them speak ill of his/her coworkers, so
I've been waiting to see another article submitted by the author of said
article, who then also comments on it.

