

Can HEVC/h.265 save Netflix from future ISP shakedowns? - 9999
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/03/27/hevc_h_265_could_this_new_video_format_save_netflix_from_future_isp_shakedowns.html

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9999
Answer: Maybe in 6 years, and even then not so much. The author here plays
very fast and loose with the figures. The claim about h.265 encoded 720p video
vs. h.264 encoded video is particularly egregious. From the article:

"For example, a 720p movie transmitting in HEVC will only require 600 Kbps to
crisply stream, a connection speed drastically lower than the current average
of 4.5 Mbps."

Utter nonsense. The statement is phrased so it appears that they are comparing
the same video quality, when in reality, the best h.265 encoders will probably
only reduce 720p file size (for a given quality) by around 30% vs. x264
encoded h.264.

I do at least applaud the author for mentioning that hardware decoder support
is a ways off, but the citations he offers for actual decoder support are very
light on details. I seriously doubt we'll see hardware h.265 decoding support
in even half of newly marketed devices 2 years from now. Nevermind the heavily
entrenched existing install base that Netflix will still be servicing.
Software decoding h.265 will make a top of the line CPU scream right now.

And then there's the problem that encoding h.265 takes about 40 times as long
as h.264 which is hardly negligible but he just cursorily tosses off. His
conclusion is what really annoys me though:

"Despite these challenges, major ISPs working together with Netflix to adapt
its massive library into a data-friendly format is a better long-term solution
for every party involved."

Just how exactly will the US ISPs be involved here? Are they going to rent out
a few thousand EC2 instances and re-encode all of that content? No. Are they
going to donate substantial sums of money to x265 or any other effort to
develop encoders? No. Are they going to provide R&D funds to Qualcomm, Intel,
Nvidia, etc. to hasten the development of hardware decoders? Of course they
won't. They will do what they have always done: They will leverage the network
duopoly they've been handed by the US Government. They will never make good on
their commitment to build out a 45mbps/45mbps symmetrical network connection
to every end user that US tax payers paid for, and they will rely on actual
innovators to compensate for their lazy, unethical and greedy business model.
The truth is that HEVC is not primarily intended to make 720p content cheaper
to move about, it's intended to make 4K and 8K content streaming possible
given the wretched recalcitrance of US network providers.

