
Flickr Co-founder Unveils Her New Startup: Hunch - Anon84
http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/flickr_co-founder_unveils_her_new_startup_hunch.php
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Anon84
This could possibly be the start of something huge, if you just look beneath
the surface a bit. In effect, the users of this site will be validating a
large number of machine learning algorithms.

Let's say you are a large internet advertising company _cough_ Google _cough_
and you are trying to customize your suggestions. You look at what you know
about any given user (their IP, geographical location, recent searches,
keyword that get used in their recent emails, etc) and formulate your
assumptions in terms of questions in a decision tree. You can then use
Hunch.com to test your results (since Hunch allows users to "correct" their
answers).

You can also use it the other way around (and this is where monetization comes
in). If all goes as planned, within a few months Hunch.com will have a LOT of
information about about people decide what to do. For instance "People that
give answer X,Y and Z to questions A, B and C think the best car for them is
XPTO model". How much would this information be worth for the makers of XPTO?
Or even for people getting paid to advertise the XPTO car?

Another possibility is to use it to improve search results. If you understand
the reasoning behind a sequence of queries, you can direct the person to what
they are looking for.

A model of how people think = A way to make money giving people what they
want.

~~~
shimon
In the shorter term, there might be some special sauce in this site that can
imbue a potentially boring task (creating and reading decision trees) with
enough emotional meaning to make it work.

For the decider, there is the appeal of having a system to approach a
difficult decision; of learning from others; of mastering a challenge and
having confidence in your decision.

For people responding to a question and refining the decision tree, there is
the appeal of demonstrating expertise and understanding how other people
think.

And there is a more abstract appeal for deciders, responders, and just plain
readers: validation that you're facing a challenge that you shouldn't be
ashamed of, that you can ask for help with, and that can be overcome.

I'm not sure if hunch really does appeal effectively in these ways (I've only
just requested an invite) but the potential is there. Starting with that sort
of potential and really listening to users seems to be how flickr evolved into
a product+community that is really prized by its members/customers, and
another app made with that same level of attention and attentiveness could
really earn a lot of devotion.

The large-scale analysis and AI could certainly be amazing -- but if you want
to learn from this as a model for your own future work, pay attention to how
well this app connects to the emotions of its users, and how they grow the
community around it. If you're making something that doesn't have a
straightforward save-time/money selling proposition, making those things work
is your biggest challenge.

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billydean
Anyone else think "Jump to Conclusions Mat" when they read this?

~~~
jpwagner
Yes but much worse when they try to monetize:

What should I eat for lunch?

A. McDonalds (sponsored by McDonalds)

B. You get the picture...

~~~
anuraggoel
From <http://www.hunch.com/fact-sheet/>

"The presence of a link to a retailer has no effect on the decision outcomes
Hunch proposes. Within a given decision topic, it's likely that some result
pages will link to an online retailer, and others won't. Some topics don't
have these sorts of links at all."

~~~
whatusername
What book should I read (linking to Amazon). What song should I listen to
(linking to iTunes)..

sounds fair enough - if they can stick to it.

(to clarify - If you are being sponsored/monitized by the retailer and not the
manufacturer - then some recommendations would be pretty legit (you'd have
incentive to suggest the best song/book)) Remembering though that any attempt
to ask "where should I buy my books / music - will then conflict with that
relationship with apple/amazon/etc.

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run4yourlives
I suppose this is what you do when your startup isn't required to support your
family. :-)

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gcheong
I wonder how invested she is in her concept. Flickr, as I understand it, was a
part of an online game originally, so if there are indications that the real
value here is some subset of functionality or is leading to something entirely
different, will she have the presence of mind to follow the hunch?

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jksmith
Geez. My brain is just not wired to have any passion for creating silly crap,
even if it made me lots of money. Some of these ideas for web apps represent
the watered-down domain that has been distilled on the iPhone. Look for a
native iPhone client for this app soon.

~~~
anuraggoel
Calling Hunch 'silly crap' is a bit harsh, especially if you haven't tried it
out yet. Let us ignore the fact that they have 'MIT scientists with
backgrounds in machine learning' on their team, and that they started working
on it in 2007 and launched only today. I just signed up to check it out, and
the results look promising even with the limited amount of data it has about
me and everyone/everything else.

Crowdsourced machine learning isn't new, but because Hunch has enough weight
behind it, it might eventually become much more useful than a lot of other
'silly crap' out there. A native iPhone client for Hunch would then be quite
welcome.

~~~
jksmith
Ok, I'll sign up when I have time, but I doubt this will change my mind.
There's maybe a fine line between decision tools and banal self-indulgence,
and my guess is this app will encourage the latter. The issue is that somebody
has to ultimately take responsibility for a decision that's been made. What's
the disclaimer for bad decisions? Can the site be sued? And when this happens,
will the site be reprogrammed to ignore the subject it was sued over?

I assume the app will ultimately recommend that it not be used for anything
but novelty purposes.

Additionally, why is it more reasonable for a MIT scientist to make a decision
for you than for you to make your own? The issue I have with it has nothing to
do with who worked on this app, or for how long.

~~~
ShabbyDoo
It's not like you are contractually obligated to abide by the suggestion
presented. Do you ever consult others when considering something? Purchases,
etc. Isn't this site just a way of codifying the advice of many rather than a
few of your friends?

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Raphael
Could be a viable competitor to Yahoo Answers and other help forums.

~~~
blasdel
A kindergartner could outclass _how is babby formed_

~~~
paulgb
The problem with Yahoo Answers is that they got the incentives all wrong.
People found they could get more points with a bunch of bad answers than a few
good ones.

Google Answers was awesome for answer quality, if you were willing to pay.
Unfortunately, they no longer exist. I haven't found anything that fills the
void they left.

~~~
blasdel
No, the problem is having incentives at all!

The only viable option is for it to be a part of a larger self-policed
community, with no 'points' that count for anything:
<http://ask.metafilter.com>

~~~
paulgb
Google Answers had incentives and was much better for it.

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floozyspeak
eHarmony for your brain.

start with a dash of <http://www.youniverse.com/>

add a cup of mahalo+yahoo answers

insert probability that you can't make or won't make a decision for yourself

do fun analysis on the back end in hopes to find a way to monetize it

serve it up as fun thing to do

pray/beg for interaction

hope in time people become addicted to it

profit

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jayroh
someone explain this to me a little better.

Is this a web-app for people to pose questions because they're too wishy-washy
to weigh their options themselves?

If that's truly what it is then: 1 - I don't get how this is "HUGE". 2 - Must
be nice to have a huge name to tag onto some silly idea that'll make insane
money no matter what.

Someone prove me wrong so I can restore my faith in ... at least this
industry.

~~~
ShabbyDoo
I'd understand your sentiment if people sought advice on whether or not they
should break up with their significant others. However, there are tons of
complicated questions in life where others' experiences are worth a lot.
Epinions is quite popular, but it makes no attempt to structure or codify
advice on a particular product or need. Which smartphone is best for you?

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thorax
This is a pretty old idea-- it's a more practical spin on what
<http://www.20q.net/> was about.

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mjnaus
If you need something like this to guide you through life, you're a bit sad...

What's wrong with making your own decisions based on passed experience?

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ShabbyDoo
The "Should I buy a Mac?" example is good to consider. What if I have no life
experience with Macs? Isn't the experience of others worthy of consideration?
Perhaps others' experiences aren't relevant. I'm sure Macs help a guy talk up
more women at coffee shops, but a married guy wouldn't care so much.

~~~
unalone
Speaking as a guy who was single when he got a Mac, has dated since getting
his Mac, and is single once again, the Mac has nothing to do with dating
unless you're really desperate and willing to go after would-be hipsters. In
fact, dating has no consideration when getting a Mac. You get it because it's
a beautiful machine that feels wonderful.

I have a sinking suspicion that the people who are that sensitive to beautiful
things get more dates than people who have less taste in things, but the two
are not directly correlated.

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jamesbritt
"Look. Decision-making is difficult, and decisions have to be made constantly.
"

And the last thing you want to so is think for yourself. ;)

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gojomo
Hunch's decision trees seem vaguely reminiscent of the 'checklists to do
things right' genre, as well.

I considered doing a webapp in a similar vein a couple years ago, and even
reserved 'decidr.com' for it... so I find it amusing that now Ms. Flickr is
doing a 'decidr'.

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catch404
I certainly think the concept has the potential to be big! Sounds interesting.

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electromagnetic
So Ms. Fake announces a new project just a few days before April Fools Day...
that's either genius prank or tragic coincidence.

