
New Studies Warn of Cataclysmic Solar Superstorms - hourislate
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-studies-warn-of-cataclysmic-solar-superstorms/
======
remarkEon
Link to the actual journal article[0] (which I don't have time to finish
reading this morning), because the writing in this is a little click-baity but
not too bad.

I'm curious if there is any serious analysis out there about dangers to the
electric grid that exist. It's hard to wade through a google search on the
topic and find a good round up of how bad things actually are.

[0]
[https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/201...](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019SW002250)

~~~
olivermarks
[https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&c...](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=10&ved=2ahUKEwiygqvq0vvkAhVWu54KHT6VBaEQFjAJegQIAhAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lloyds.com%2F~%2Fmedia%2Flloyds%2Freports%2Femerging-
risk-reports%2Fsolar-storm-risk-to-the-north-american-electric-
grid.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0Hg4EvoNAgqpCKI0oteQHI)

[Lloyds insurance pdf] Transformers are the fundamental problem. Once they are
fried it could take years to get grid back up and running. There was US
legislation proposed to mandate spares in the the event of a major solar
flare, don't have time to locate right now

~~~
adt2bt
I remember a few years back hearing that one reason we are studying the sun is
to hopefully detect such a powerful solar storm on the order of ~hours before
such a solar flare hits Earth. This might give grid operators enough time to
effectively shut off and disconnect those massive transformers to save them
from the brunt of the damage.

~~~
olivermarks
'... it is a problem the same way hurricanes are a problem. One can protect
oneself with advance information and proper precautions. During a hurricane
watch, a homeowner can stay put … or he can seal up the house, turn off the
electronics and get out of the way. Similarly, scientists at NASA and NOAA
give warnings to electric companies, spacecraft operators and airline pilots
before a CME comes to Earth so that these groups can take proper
precautions'.. [https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/flare-
impac...](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/flare-impacts.html)

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leggomylibro
Interestingly, it sounds like most predictions for solar cycle 25 [1] are that
it will likely be milder than average, like #24 is/was. Anyone who knows more
about this sort of thing care to comment?

It kind of sounds like this article is just saying that a big storm could be
harmful if it happens, but the headline seems to imply that a big storm is
more likely in the near future.

I do wonder if modern electronics are more prone to failure from this sort of
thing, though; the transistors keep getting smaller and more power-efficient,
which seems like it would also mean that they require less energy to switch.

[1]:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_25](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_25)

~~~
noir_lord
My understanding is that it's long conductors that are the problem (telegraph
wires etc) that are the most under threat, just unplugging most things would
protect them.

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korethr
So, tangental question. I have read about the Earth's magnetic poles moving in
the past. I have also read that the poles are likely to move or start moving
again sooner rather than later. Would a large geomagnetic storm influence
that? I.e. would it make the poles more likely to shift, or kick them into
motion? Would it make the poles less likely to shift or hold them in place?
Setting aside the disruption of a major change to the cardinal directions,
would a shift of the poles be disruptive to infrastructure like the storms in
the article are said to be?

~~~
njarboe
The Earth's magnetic field is created from electrodynamo activity in the
liquid iron core of the Earth. A solar super storm would have basically no
influence on the millions of cubic kilometers of conducting and convecting
iron. After the storm had passed, the magnetic field on the Earth's surface
would be unchanged.

As to your last question, when the Earth's field flips direction (polarity
reversal) or tries to flip but returns to the original polarity (magnetic
excursion), the Earth's magnetic field drops to around 10% of the normal field
strength and is no longer dipolar. This would cause many current satellites to
be destroyed by the solar wind, but since drops in the field to this level
takes hundreds or thousands of years, there is little to worry about.

------
HenryKissinger
Aren't modern electrical systems much better protected against solar storms
than in 1859 or 1921?

~~~
ryanmercer
In some countries with modern grids. The grid in the United States (with the
exception of most of Texas which is on its own independent grid) however is
not and is quite susceptible to this sort of event. Modern hardware that can
actually handle this sort of thing is simply largely lacking in the United
States as it's far cheaper to repair the occasional failed piece of equipment
than to redo the entire grid and the power companies are out to make profits
tomorrow not to prepare for "it might happen tomorrow or in 10,000 years"
types of events. Even losing a small percentage of the hardware to an event
like this could result in blackouts in entire regions and rolling blackouts
for quite some time until enough hardware could be replaced.

Worse, a lot of the hardware at that level (those big transformers and the
like) are not really kept in surplus and are effectively manufactured to order
and sourced outside of the United States. And while that's not a problem for
countries that are more modernized, if you took down the grid in the United
States the economic and food supply implications would be a global issue.

Similarly, if anything ever happened to GPS the logistics and agricultural
industries would topple as they are so incredibly dependent on GPS now it's
terrifying.

There have been attempts to modernize it and a plethora of articles exist on
the subject, here is a semi-decent one Forbes ran earlier this year

[https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2019/07/12/modern...](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2019/07/12/modernizing-
americas-energy-infrastructure-must-become-a-national-priority/#1a517ca1602f)

~~~
TeMPOraL
Honestly, reading this makes me nervous - it's scary just how fragile our
modern way of life is.

~~~
ryanmercer
It really is. We've become insanely dependent on the internet, massive
electrical grids and GPS.

GPS is especially interesting because the USAF didn't even want it and it
almost never happened yet ever shipping company, every cargo ship, every semi,
ever FedEx and UPS truck, many pieces of large farm vehicles and most of us
use GPS daily. The larger farming operations even use GPS to harvest as GPS is
far more accurate than a human being trying to make optimal rows and optimal
rows end up in huge time & fuel savings as each acre goes by.

And take the internet... all of those delivery/freight companies use the
internet to manage their shipments all across the world and to adjust routes
on the fly, and most commerce is conducted via the internet either via
websites or servers.

Then power. If you don't have power you don't have water pressure, you can't
pump gasoline, you can't make gasoline, you can't use the internet, etc. If
you even just manage to take down one region (like happened in Canada in 1989
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm)
) for even a day you have a massive disruption.

It can honestly be terrifying if you let your mind obsess about it, just how
fragile our technological civilization is. More and more I want to live as
simply as possible but man, it's hard, we rely so much on gadgets and SAAS and
the general convenience of an electricity/GPS/internet driven society.

~~~
TeMPOraL
I'd much prefer if things were more self-contained and self-reliant rather
than so deeply interconnected; I don't yearn much for simple (pre-industrial)
life. But given the reality we have, it makes it extremely important to
protect our civilization from shocks and reinforce the most fragile aspects of
it. That's why I often speak up against revolutionary changes, for good or
bad. I'm for more gradual changes, and strongly against those that risk
breaking civilization, because that would be game over for everyone.

~~~
epiphanitus
I wholeheartedly agree. Society has it's fair share of flaws (and they
absolutely should be fixed!) but all of the alternatives are way worse.

------
hnburnsy
DHS Recovery Transformer Program

[https://www.dhs.gov/science-and-
technology/rec-x](https://www.dhs.gov/science-and-technology/rec-x)

~~~
hnburnsy
Interesting that DHS has a term for things like this, HILF.

>Various agencies have emphasized, and recent events have demonstrated, the
critical nature of power transformers in the face of possible high-impact,
low-frequency (HILF) events. HILF events include intentional malicious events
(e.g., physical attacks, cyberattacks, coordinated attacks, electromagnetic
pulse weapons, and others), natural disasters (e.g., hurricanes, earthquakes,
severe geomagnetic disturbances, etc.), and non-intentional or accidental
events such as nuclear power plant accidents.

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peter303
Solar superstorms can create enhanced atmospheric isotopes of carbon 14,
beryllium 10 and chlorine 39. High resolution lake sediments and ice cores can
discover earlier extreme solar events. Many studies point to 774 AD as the
largest know solar storm event. Perhaps additional events in 993 and 660 BC.

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dwd
This is an interesting read from 2012.

[https://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/the-smarter-
grid/a-perfect-...](https://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/the-smarter-
grid/a-perfect-storm-of-planetary-proportions)

He discusses how they can build in protections but the issue was the
technology available in 2012 failed to kick in quickly enough. Is this still
the case?

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e2le
Is there any early warning system that provides an API for this sort of thing?
It might be cool to use this for automated shutdown of sensitive equipment and
<favourite chat application> notifications.

~~~
ablation
There are some very useful/interesting apps with early warning information
built in. For example, AuroraWatch:
[https://apps.apple.com/gb/app/aurorawatch-uk-aurora-
alerts/i...](https://apps.apple.com/gb/app/aurorawatch-uk-aurora-
alerts/id946141347)

Perhaps closer examination of where they source their data could yield an API
or similar?

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Mountain_Skies
Is it time for Elon Musk to create self driving boring machines to put the
electrical grid completely underground? Mostly joking but not entirely.

~~~
jandrese
Buried power lines are definitely a thing. They're common in cities where you
don't want a tangle of wires overhead and in more affluent suburbs for the
same reason.

They're pretty nice because you rarely lose power in bad weather, the power
tends to only go out on nice days when the backhoes are active.

Long distance HV lines are always overhead though. They would require
relatively expensive insulation to be run underground.

~~~
Bombthecat
German here, almost all power lines are underground. Except the super high
voltage ones :)

~~~
noir_lord
UK as well.

Other than the high voltage backbone links I've pretty much never seen power
on an overhead.

~~~
xxpor
I have to suspect they're more common than you think. I just pulled up this
random lane in the middle of England and:

[https://www.google.com/maps/@51.8095473,-1.3123044,3a,89.9y,...](https://www.google.com/maps/@51.8095473,-1.3123044,3a,89.9y,0.61h,113.54t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sDbwWd3DqtV5YnKCSbJSiPw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656)

~~~
grokys
They look like telephone poles to me.

~~~
MrEldritch
Then why the high-voltage warning stickers?

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seamyb88
They tricked me with how close "cataclysmic" is to "catastrophic".

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leoh
What's the best way to prepare for something like this on a personal level?

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btbuildem
Welp, don't be on a flight when a solar storm happens.

~~~
Filligree
We'd have at least a few hours' warning. Enough time to land, for sure.

~~~
jly
ETOPS flights are regularly flown 3+ hours from a suitable place to land
(single-engine flying time). Considering they are up to 370 minutes (about 6
hours) in some extreme cases, I can certainly see this being a problem. If you
had a 3h warning at any given moment, there's a strong possibility that some
jetliner somewhere in the world is over an ocean and could not land in time.

~~~
garmaine
It could fly low.

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KibbutzDalia
Is this because of rising CO2 emissions?

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lgats
Is there a set of stocks which I should be shorting in the moments up to the
next carrington event?

~~~
ohiovr
Might be tricky to spend the money.

~~~
geggam
What money ?

Unless you are buying gold or silver and taking possession you and everyone
else has nothing.

~~~
fhars
In a civilisation collapse scenario, vodka is a far more valuable and liquid
investment vehicle than gold or silver.

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el_don_almighty
Scientific "Teen Beat" American... This is the worst kind of click-bait
sensational journalism I have seen from Scientific American. Honestly, what a
pile of scary hokum.

