
Elon Musk: Tesla cars will have “autopilot mode” by summer - rjshade
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/20/business/elon-musk-says-self-driving-tesla-cars-will-be-in-the-us-by-summer.html
======
AceJohnny2
Every time Elon Musk makes this kind of announcement, his engineering
departments groan.

As I understand, they have folks actively managing Musk trying to prevent him
from promising the moon :)

~~~
JulianMorrison
Too late, he promised Mars.

~~~
acqq
Anybody knows if any needed equipment is actually installed in his cars? From
what I've understood with Google cars, the cars would need quite a lot things
like high tech radars.

~~~
lylebarrere
They've been including the hardware in the cars since about 3 weeks before
they first announced these features earlier this year.

------
tfe
Wow, I didn't realize they had been building in the necessary sensors all
along. To just light this up one day for the existing fleet with an OTA update
is nothing short of astounding.

~~~
orblivion
Particularly since they didn't price the cars to include this feature.

~~~
ForHackernews
I mean, the cars are insanely expensive already. I think they're priced to
include plenty.

~~~
declan
Teslas are in line with other luxury sedans (of course you may view all of
those are insanely expensive). The 60 starts at $64K, cash price counting tax
credits, and the P85 is $96K.

Compare that with the starting prices of the BMW 5-series, $50K (base) to $94K
(M5). The Porsche Panamera is $78K to $180K starting price. The Model S has
been tested against the Mercedes S550, which starts at $94K.

If you look at the performance of the P85D, especially its horsepower and
torque, you arguably get far more for your money than you do with any petrol-
powered sedan. It's even quicker than the Panamera Turbo.

I prefer lighter vehicles -- the P85D is 50% heavier than my RWD manual
transmission'd sports car -- but if I needed a sedan Tesla would now be my
default choice.

~~~
rsync
Tesla performance is astounding - better than many cars that are $250k and
more.

Tesla interior/luxury/comfort is astonishingly low. All mid-ranged luxury cars
(A6, 5-Series, E-class, etc.) are much, much nicer cars to drive in, and many
of the lower end (3 series, C class) have nicer interiors as well.

~~~
declan
On the performance point, you're quite right on 0-60 speeds. Electric motors,
all-wheel drive, and smart launch control will give you excellent times.

On a track, though, where weight and handling matter so much, I wonder what
the performance would be. The Tesla Model S (Performance Model) and the Tesla
Roadster have essentially the same lap time around Laguna Seca as a humble VW
Golf and Ford Focus -- and all four are comfortably beaten by a $30K Subaru
WRX STi. Source: [http://my.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-laguna-
seca-l...](http://my.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-laguna-seca-lap-
times)

Now that was likely not the P85D, but that model's extra performance will be
offset by the extra 300lbs and curb weight of approximately 5000(!) lbs. It
may be helped by a more even front/rear weight distribution and AWD. (I admit
I've spent the last three days on the track at Laguna Seca, so I may be overly
fixated on lap times...)

This is not to take away from Tesla's remarkable accomplishments in such a
short time. The P85D is an amazing car.

~~~
Klathmon
The Model S actually doesn't do well on a track at all. Not because of any
weight/handling issues (i'm actually not sure about how it handles), but
because of overheating.

The electric motors can't dissipate heat that quick, and if the engines are
run at "full throttle" for too long it will slow performance significantly to
keep from overheating.

In reality this means you can't really complete a lap or 2 of most tracks.

~~~
declan
Ah, you're right. Thanks! Here's a story that describes the problem (and an
unsuccessful ice bath attempt):

[http://www.motortrend.com/roadtests/oneyear/alternative/1404...](http://www.motortrend.com/roadtests/oneyear/alternative/1404_2013_tesla_model_s_p85_update_4/)
_I coincidentally spoke with a Tesla engineer and explained what had happened.
"What you need to do is put the car in something like a big meat locker," he
suggested. "Cool it way down first."_

------
dakrisht
I'm not positive on this but I believe Tesla either uses technology or
licenses patents directly from Mercedes-Benz regarding their whole "self-
driving" and "autopilot" marketing here.

Case in point: my current car does a variety of self-driving tasks such as:

\- Autonomous braking

\- Active lane keeping assist to steer you in the lane if the radar and
cameras detect you are swerving

\- PRE-SAFE collision prevention plus that will autonomously brake if it
detects an imminent impact

\- Pedestrian awareness system that will autonomously brake if it detects a
pedestrian is entering the range of the long, medium and short range radar

\- Distronic Plus that will accelerate and brake according to both the vehicle
in front and behind you from 0 mph up to 100mph

\- Attention assist that employs various sensor to detect drowsiness and alert
the driver audibly and via haptic feedback if it's time to take a break.

\- Active blind spot assist that will audibly, visually and via haptic
feedback alert the driver that a car has entered your hotspot and prevent you
from entering that particular lane

So while the Tesla camp is and should be excited about "self-driving"
enhancements, Mercedes-Benz has been doing this for well over 2 years now with
some of the technology above even becoming standard features on non-high end
Mercedes vehicles such as the S-Class with the appropriate packages.

I don't really see much but hype with respect to Tesla's announcement.

Good link here:
[http://www.mbusa.com/mercedes/benz/safety](http://www.mbusa.com/mercedes/benz/safety)

~~~
deeviant
Yeah, there are some COTS parts available for various autonomous driving
functionality. My Ford fusion does pretty much all of the above, and I do not
think Ford implemented everything themselves, and the sensors look very
similar to various other implementations from different auto manufacturers.

~~~
dakrisht
Your Ford certainly doesn't do even most of the above. Your Ford has
pedestrian awareness and active lane departure systems? It has radar to brake
and accelerate during traffic? Definitely not.

~~~
deeviant
Yes, it has lane assist(this is resistive rather than active, it stiffens the
steering wheel making it harder to move in a direction that leaves the lane,
rather that correcting coarse actively), active breaking (with adaptive cruise
control, light/sound alerts otherwise) for collisions with car, terrain and
pedestrian.

It also has blind spot sensor, adaptive cruise control, driver wakefulness
alerts. It's adaptive cruise works beautiful, but unfortunately is designed to
cut out below 10 MPH, which is a bit annoying in stop and go traffic. It does
do automated parallel parking as well, and it rocks at that, it parks in spots
I wouldn't dare.

It really strikes a good balance between relying on human and computer-assist.

Also, I think you have a strange definition of "certainly".

------
acadien
"self-driving car" and "car capable driving itself on highway under optimal
conditions" are 2 totally different things. The real excitement comes when I
can tell my car to go pick up the kids from school or drop me off at the
airport and then drive itself back home. Anyways this is a great step in the
right direction but its not the game changing tech we're all waiting for.

~~~
stevecalifornia
I bought a new car in Sept 2014. It uses radar to do adaptive cruise control
all the way down to stop and go. It also uses camera's to sense the lanes and
steer to keep lane. Also handles emergency braking and people cutting me off.

So basically, I choose the on-ramp and off-ramp and the car does the rest on
the highway. I feel like it's the midpoint between a manual car and an
autonomous car.

After a few months of using this every day, driving in a normal car feels
different than it used to. It's like driving a manual instead of an automatic.

The car is a fully loaded 2015 Chrysler 200C.

~~~
ohsnap
Just curious, do you still keep your eyes on the road with adaptive cruise
control? Or do you tend to do other things?

~~~
stevecalifornia
Mentally it's less stressful to get behind another car and just let the
computer control the speed and distance the whole way. You stop caring if they
are going 55 or 77. I just sit there and listen to podcasts. I stay alert
though, and I've avoided the urge to read or something.

~~~
RowanH
It would be an interesting experiment to measure actual alertness and ability
to react.... I would hazard that while you think you might be alert you're
probably less so as because you're not actively driving your brain is not
ready to react in the same way as if it's constantly processing while driving.

Case in point - I've got two cars, our boring diesel daily driver and
380hp:600kg track day weapon which you really have to be mentally prepared to
drive (no driver aids at all). Headed to the track one Saturday morning in
said track car, a car in front of me pulled out of the lane to avoid a big a--
bird in the road. Partly because I _have_ to be alert in that car and partly
the car itself I managed to treat the bird more like an obstacle course and
(narrowly) avoid it. The dumb thing started running off the road then back
into my lane(!). Anyway the point is in my Corolla no way would I have reacted
in time, while I think I'm conscientious I know my alertness level is way
higher in the track day car - it's low, small, has a brutally fast steering
rack - a single moment of inattention you'd get away with in Corolla would see
you in the ditch in the other car. 3 hours drive in both cars and one of them
I'm pretty happy to have a little break afterwards!

A byproduct of the environment, I think autonomous cars/controls are going to
reduce the level of awareness and concentration and you'll have some pretty
nasty "I don't know what happened" crashes when things happen that the systems
can't respond to and human has to drive out of it.

Of course the flip side of the coin, and I can fully appreciate is the
reduction of crashes where people doze off and plough right into the back of
other cars. So I guess it's a risk reduction numbers game of which is the
lesser of two evils?

~~~
reneherse
I was thinking of a similar possible problem during my commute this morning,
not with automated driving but with automatic equipment and systems in
general. Does convenience breed mental laziness and/or decay? In our
increasingly automated and comfortable existence, what experiences confront us
with the need for high focus and alertness, or systematic problem solving?
(Speaking of humans in general, not just engineers and other professionals who
benefit from this kind of activity in their work.) So many things have been
reduced (usually delightfully so) to point, click and enjoy.

Some physical environments for advanced age folks are designed with features
to promote extra physical exertion, to help maintain the occupants' fitness,
which in turn promotes safety. (Better balance, fewer falls.)

Similarly, we might consider building-in a baseline requirement of mental
activity for the operation of certain systems. In the short term, this might
increase alertness in the moment, as in the semi-autonomous driving example.
(In that case, perhaps a UI that requires maintaining a certain amount of eye
motion across the road, or particular posture.) In the long term, perhaps
other (more challenging?) in-built exercises will promote mental and
neurological health in people whose work and play would otherwise fail to be
stimulating.

~~~
agumonkey
There was an article about crash statistics on roads that used to be
surrounded by tree lanes [1]. There were as many accidents with or without the
trees. Removing the trees avoids the opportunities to crash into them, so now
people drive faster and carelessly.

I also think stress, in healthy dose, is necessary. I'd bet heavy on decay as
a result of removing it. Until the potential self-driving car future where
people won't even have to think about driving and will find other ways to be
proactive.

[1] [http://a395.idata.over-blog.com/1/74/49/41/SPECIALITES-
GOURM...](http://a395.idata.over-blog.com/1/74/49/41/SPECIALITES-
GOURMANDES/photo_parcours_cycle_01_504_mai2009.jpg)

~~~
eru
Same number of crashes, but people can drive faster? That's a win in my book.

~~~
agumonkey
Heh, fair point, we have different value systems. I'm for same speed / lower
accidents, especially dumber ones. These days speed gets all the rage but in
my mind we should aim for lower tempo, more density.

~~~
eru
Oh, lower accidents, same speed is also good. Anything that improves on the
pareto frontier!

------
cjensen
"Mostly self-driving" just seems crazy to me. As soon as the car is able to
drive on a major highway, you're going to have "asleep at the wheel" issues,
and the car cannot simply hand back control to the driver.

There have been times when I've misjudged my level of tiredness. Drifting out
of lane is a good marker that you've screwed up and need to pull over
immediately and sleep.

Does Tesla have some way to determine wakefulness or to safely pull over if
the driver fails to respond?

~~~
stdgy
A co-worker and I were just talking about this. My take on the situation is
that this could be partially alleviated if the car were to refuse to get off
of the highway until after the driver manually took it out of autopilot. If
the driver doesn't respond, skip the exit and stay on the highway sending out
alerts until the driver responds.

Not exactly optimal, but I feel it may be the safest route. It would be
interesting to see what other strategies people come up with.

~~~
tfe
And if the highway ends?

~~~
ewindisch
I envision a not-so-distant future where sleepy drivers wake up 5 states and
hundreds of miles away from home. At least with Tesla, drivers might find
themselves waking up at a Supercharger.

------
fab13n
The insurance / responsibility question really shows how moronic bureaucracy
has made us.

To rephrase naysayers in a more first degree way: "sure there would be less
accidents than when the vehicle is driven by a glorified ape, but for the
fewer people still killed or maimed, we wouldn't be sure whom to blaim. So
we'll keep killing more of them through ape drivers, rather than rush the
paperwork-rethinking trauma".

~~~
coldpie
Eh, a half-dozen really smart companies are pursuing self-driving technology.
If it were really a concern enough to keep it off the market, they wouldn't
continue working on it.

------
dchuk
An interesting implication of that statement is that all the hardware to make
this functionality work is already in the vehicle if it's just a software
update.

~~~
greglindahl
Why, yes, this blog posting from October 10, 2014, said that:

[http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/dual-motor-model-s-and-
autop...](http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/dual-motor-model-s-and-autopilot)

~~~
staunch
> _Every single Model S now rolling out of the factory includes a forward
> radar, 12 long range ultrasonic sensors positioned to sense 16 feet around
> the car in every direction at all speeds, a forward looking camera, and a
> high precision, digitally controlled electric assist braking system._

Does anyone know how their system might compare to the spinning Lidar
thingamajigs Google uses on their cars?

~~~
zik
The lidar that google uses provides a huge amount more information. Add that
to the detailed maps that the google vehicle uses and it's pretty clear that
these vehicles aren't really trying to do the same thing. Google's trying to
handle fully driverless operation but Tesla's going for a more immediately
commercializable middle ground.

------
n_blom
It's not likely that this "autopilot mode" is close to the state of the art.
See for example what kind of technique Audi has put into their prototype A7:

[http://www.motorauthority.com/news/1029470_autonomous-
audi-a...](http://www.motorauthority.com/news/1029470_autonomous-
audi-a7-concept-steers-itself-from-san-francisco-to-las-vegas-for-ces)

I can't believe Tesla has all these sensor already build in.

Plus Audi, Mercedes, etc. have all enormous experience in vehicle dynamics,
which is critical in handeling automatic reactions like full braking and
sudden fast steering at higher speeds.

The critical part is what does so car do if it requests driver interaction but
the driver does not response. Brake? On a highway?

Autopilot will come, but not in the three month. That's just hilarious.

~~~
mikeash
You're right that "autopilot" isn't the state of the art anymore. It's just
radar cruise control and automatic lane keeping. The radar cruise control
feature is already available in the Model S, and has been for a couple of
months. Lane keeping is the missing piece. You can buy cars right now with
automatic lane keeping, and Tesla has demoed it extensively in their cars, so
there's no real doubt about it coming soon to Tesla.

Three months is "hilarious" for a feature that's already been commercialized
by others and has been shown to be nearly done in Tesla's implementation? How
do you figure?

------
coliveira
It looks like Tesla is just trying to play catch up with some other companies.
Volvo already has a car with self driving technology, Chrysler also has a very
good near-self-driving system.

~~~
bobbles
As mentioned elsewhere, this will be rolled out as an OTA update, people wont
have to replace their cars for this

~~~
bri3d
Only cars made since late 2014: [http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/dual-motor-
model-s-and-autop...](http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/dual-motor-model-s-and-
autopilot) , so most current Tesla owners would have to upgrade.

This announcement is quite bubbly, IMO. Many luxury automakers have had the
capability for "highway autonomy" in the way Tesla seem to describe for
several years now: see this reckless Infiniti driver
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zY_zqEmKV1k](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zY_zqEmKV1k)
.

The "parking lot to parking lot" capability would be truly interesting (as
city driving presents a lot of interesting problems that aren't just "follow
lines and traffic") but as there's no announced timeline for it, there's no
sign Tesla are actually ahead of the numerous other automakers working on the
same capability.

------
aetherson
What is the sensor package being leveraged here?

~~~
manicdee
[http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/dual-motor-model-s-and-
autop...](http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/dual-motor-model-s-and-autopilot)

Forward radar, forward camera, 12 long range ultrasonic sensors with coverage
in "every direction at all speeds".

------
danielweber
_To Musk, highway speeds are not the challenge; the complexity of the
landscape is. “Highway cruise is easy, low speed is easy, it’s medium that 's
hard. Being able to recognize what you’re seeing and make the right decision
in that suburban environment in that 10 mph to 50 mph zone is the challenging
portion.”_

[http://www.pcworld.com/article/2898118/elon-musk-teslas-
coul...](http://www.pcworld.com/article/2898118/elon-musk-teslas-could-drive-
themselves-today.html)

------
joshschreuder
Somewhat off-topic, but what are the filesizes like for the OTA updates for
the Tesla?

------
waterlesscloud
Two points in the article bring up an interesting thought- Will autonomous
highway driving make the recharging stops more or less annoying? If you're not
actively driving the car, will you have less fatigue and so less need or
desire for a 30 minute recharging break every few hundred miles?

~~~
tbrownaw
On long trips now, is it the driver or the passengers who are more interested
in rest stops?

~~~
waterlesscloud
Depends on the drivers and the passengers. But there's a difference between a
5-10 minute restroom stop and a 30 minute recharging stop.

Random thought- the drivers on long distance trips self-select for people who
like to keep going.

~~~
pqomdv
The difference is small if you take the whole trip into account. Assuming one
stop, over 6 hours of total trip time, the difference become less than 5%.

I wonder how much a 10 minute stop charges a Tesla S. Probably a third. Once
the superchargers become common enough, you can do several shorter stops
instead.

------
mixmastamyk
Sounds great, but I'd prefer a simple slow/stop crash avoidance when there is
an object slowing/stopped in front of the car. What is he status on that,
anyone know?

The Tesla forums on the subject are filled with geniuses advising people to
drive better, in lieu of such important safety features.

------
mark_integerdsv
So torn on this because I fall into the chest beating, love to drive my car
set but I also remember how much reading I got done when I was younger and
used to use the train to commute.

Having that time back is a very seductive proposition.

What I do wonder though is what's the point of having your own car, if all
cars are autonomous then isn't that essentially a tram system? How long would
it take before there are established routes and taking _your_ car to a given
location is no different to hopping on any one of the other cars that are
heading there anyway?

Surely the one of the first businesses to be radically impacted by widespread
autonomous vehicles is the taxi industry?

I can't see an outcome where pretty soon it's not just a fancy tramway.

------
gdubs
I'm looking forward to summoning my self-driving car from my Apple Watch and
living out my childhood Knight Rider fantasies. (I know, only on private
property in the early stages -- but still, pretty darn cool.)

------
Sakes
Did they already resolve the legal issues on a state by state basis?

~~~
cloudwalking
Nope, these Teslas will only self-drive on private property. Or if you fall
asleep at the wheel.

Source: listened to the call this morning.

~~~
abalone
The private property restriction is only for Batmobile mode where you summon
the car and it drives to you all by itself.

The autopilot / cruise control 2.0 / lean back mode where it handles all the
driving on the highway, but you're still behind the wheel.. That's the main
thing. I'm also curious whether there are state law issues.

~~~
delive
Do they use GPS location to determine private property? Curious if I could get
out of the Tesla in my driveway and have it park itself in the (narrow)
garage.

~~~
cmdrfred
That would be a neat feature, pull up to the front of a building on private
property release the driver and go find a parking spot.

------
chrisBob
Does anyone know what my car insurance rate would do if I got a car that will
let me nap or read a book on the way to work? That is one major issue I
haven't seen addressed.

~~~
cowsandmilk
I don't think insurance companies know how to price it yet. If it works,
insurance costs should go down. If it fails randomly, well....

~~~
cmdrfred
Auto insurance is already insane, I'd love to see this take out the big
automakers and the insurance companies with it.

~~~
cookingrobot
Self-driving cars should come with insurance included, since accidents aren't
the owners fault.

~~~
chrisBob
You already have the option of paying extra for accidents that aren't your
fault. Why would that be free now?

~~~
cookingrobot
Currently insurance is on the driver, because accidents are their fault. In a
self driving car, accidents are the manufacturers fault, so they should have
the burden of insurance.

With a self driving car, you're really just a passenger, so you shouldn't need
your own insurance to ride in one.

------
joeyspn
Well, it's pretty clear that the headline is a bait for page views... Anyways,
steps in the good direction, but far from the self-driving cars we all have on
our minds...

------
Fando
This feature is great. Perhaps once such cars become the majority on the road,
traffic flow could be optimized resulting in a faster commute during rush
hours.

------
Shivetya
I am not sure I agree on the two hundred mile threshold, maybe for the family
commuter car. however no electric of that range will ever replace the car for
trips to grandmas.

let alone the price differential between an equivalent gas powered car is
going to have to be a lot closer to justify the limitations of an electric.

~~~
AnthonyMouse
You're missing the self-driving feature. Once there are self-driving cars
there will be _cheap_ self-driving cabs. That's what you take to grandma's
house. And of course the cab can run on gasoline. Or run on electricity and
when it runs out of power it stops somewhere you can get some food and a
freshly charged cab.

------
patcon
I'm sceptical that they'll be allowed to deploy this.

But hey -- They should just push the update with a harcoded feature toggle
keeping the functionality off. Then the line they tow is "Oops! Someone rooted
their car and overrode our safety!"

~~~
bri3d
Why not? Every luxury carmaker has had this level of highway autonomy for
quite some time now - here's an example of an Infiniti where the (completely
reckless) driver literally gets into the passenger's seat while the car is
driving:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zY_zqEmKV1k](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zY_zqEmKV1k)

Most European automakers have systems with similar capability (Audi and
Mercedes have systems that even work down to 0mph in traffic) but maintain a
"one hand on the wheel" sensor to prevent stunts like this.

The purported "parking lot to parking lot" capability is what's really
interesting, but it sounds like Tesla have no timeline to actually deploy it
yet.

------
Animats
The Tesla Model S has forward-looking radar, ultrasonic sensors on all sides,
and a forward-looking camera. That's marginally enough for automatic driving
in routine freeway situations.

~~~
fab13n
That's way more sensors than a human driver enjoys.

------
suyash
I thought self driving cars were 5 years away.

------
jbryant1221
Just add in some built in wifi and you could get a lot of work done while on
you are going somewhere.

------
wahsd
So basically the intelligent cruise-control that Mercedes developed in the
early 90s?

------
throwawaykf05
Hmm, I thought Musk would be concerned that his autopilot would try to destroy
him.

------
ulfw
Over promise, under deliver. The PR machine at work again.

------
jupake
Too late. The latest S-Class Mercedes already has something like this.

------
bronz
Does the autopilot handle bridge inspections?

------
Domenic_S
I love Tesla, but Musk's starting to smell a little like Peter Molyneux --
promising the world and delivering little. Get the Model X out (2 years late
and counting...)

~~~
mikeash
If you get past the tremendously misleading headline, you'd see that his
statement isn't so crazy. All this article is about is Musk saying that Tesla
Model S firmware version 7, out within a few months, will include full
"autopilot" functionality, which means traffic-aware cruise control and
automatic lane keeping. The former is already enabled (I just used it half an
hour ago) and the latter has been demoed extensively and there's no reason to
doubt it will ship when claimed.

~~~
aetherson
I don't think that's what the article says. I mean, maybe that's what it
actually means, but what it _says_ is the cars will "navigate" themselves. It
uses the term a bunch of times. Nowhere does it hint that "navigation" is
limited to "not rear-ending the car in front of you and staying in the lane,"
and I don't think that's the plain reading of "company drivers letting the car
navigate the West Coast largely unassisted."

It's _certainly_ not the plain reading of "the self-driving technology was
'technically capable of going from parking lot to parking lot,' meaning
through cities as well."

If what all that actually means is "adaptive cruise control + lane keeping,"
then either the GP poster is right that Musk is overpromising and
underdelivering, or the journalist completely misconstrued Musk.

~~~
mikeash
All Musk promised in the near term for autonomous driving is lane keeping.
Everything else was either wishy-washy "eventually, someday" or imagined by
the article's author.

