

HP said to dump Microsoft ARM tablets over Surface - yread
http://semiaccurate.com/2012/06/29/hp-said-to-dump-microsoft-over-surface/#.T-2s75neWtA.hackernews

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MichaelGG
Microsoft is absolutely making the right move here. For years they've stayed
out of hardware, and let their OEMs mess it up. They wanted to "partner" to
deliver a good end user experience, and that's never worked out.

Microsoft has done a similar in the hosted services space with Office365. Did
that burn a lot of relationships? Oh most certainly - people are annoyed they
can't resell Exchange or O365 and make any serious money. But so what?
Microsoft is making their products available in a great way, and serving their
customers better.

If Microsoft had taken this approach a decade ago, perhaps Apple would not
have grown to twice MS's size simply by caring about the end-to-end user
experience.

~~~
prezjordan
Just out of curiosity, how is Apple twice Microsoft's size? I mean, Microsoft
products are still used all over business, right? How did it happen?

~~~
JackC
_How did it happen?_

Apparently there's a single-serving site for that: <http://barefigur.es/>

The short answer is the iPod, iPhone and iPad. Starting in 2004, Apple started
releasing hardware products so popular they made its previous unit sales look
like a rounding error, and then they kept doing that in new product categories
while continuing to sell the old ones, every three years like clockwork. In
each case they made huge bets to control the supply chain, keeping margins
amazingly high and keeping competitors technologically behind for crucial
months. Apple is now twice Microsoft's market cap because investors are
betting they can keep pulling off this trick. (We're due for another one in
2013 -- the Apple TV?)

The really interesting question is, how did _that_ happen? Personally I'm
inclined to buy into the Cult of Steve Jobs. Because the other company
reliably churning out blockbusters in the same time period, using surprisingly
similar organizational methods, was ... Pixar. But there were probably some
other people who contributed too.

~~~
huggyface
_The really interesting question is, how did that happen?_

A lot of Apple's enormous and well-deserved success could be attributed to
iTunes, I think. The iPod was a huge success, pulling people to use and start
to get locked into the iTunes universe. Around the time of the release of the
iPhone, iTunes was the benchmark and it was the massive differentiator of what
made the iPhone the device to have (it's all very curious now. I keep no music
on my device, using online sources like Rdio). The iPhone begat the iPad, etc.

~~~
cmoscoso
I don't think so. why?

When iTunes was not available in my country, I remember iPods were already
popular.

~~~
huggyface
iTunes the application wasn't available? It was essentially mandatory to have
it to use an iPod.

I'm not talking about the music sales. I'm talking purely about iTunes as a
way of managing music, including just the mp3s in your own collection.

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smackfu
Note that "dump" here means "won't make Windows ARM tablets".

I know everyone was waiting breathlessly for one of those from HP.

~~~
Splines
The mobile device org from top to bottom must still be smarting from the
touchpad.

------
adjwilli
Microsoft management may have destroyed their partnerships, but they're
certainly not imcompetent.

The Surface is the exact thing Microsoft needs to stay relevant for consumers.
And if Microsoft can start selling their own hardware, in the end they'll be
better and more profitable for it.

What does SemiArrucate thing Microsoft should do? Stay the same course that
has seen them losing marketshare for a decade?

~~~
josefresco
They've been losing market share for over a decade? I would love to see some
real numbers on that.

~~~
mbreese
It's probably more accurate to say they've lost mindshare. The amount of PC
marketshare they've lost to Apple is still pretty small.

But the biggest problem for Microsoft is that the market is shifting. Between
smartphones and tablets, people just don't need PCs as much. So Microsoft is
desperately trying to be a factor in those markets. Shrinking the PC down to
the size of the Surface isn't a bad idea, but it will make OEMs very
uncomfortable. They are feeling the same market pressure to get small and
mobile.

~~~
adjwilli
Mindshare is more what I meant than marketshare.

If you look at Wikipedia's statistics, Microsoft represents about 75% of
visitors:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_system...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_systems)

I imagine that in 2002, their share would have been hovering around 95%.

------
brudgers
Other than the certification requirements for Windows on ARM, everything else
is pretty much speculation (e.g. license prices and HP abandoning Windows) or
casting of the status quo as a sudden shift of the landscape (e.g. tablets
from anyone other than Apple run Android, today).

The fact that there is an existing commitment to Android tablets by all the
consumer electronics companies is probably the reason Microsoft is considering
making it's own hardware (not that HP was really seemed all that gung-ho on
partnering with Microsoft over the long term once they bought Palm to acquire
Web-OS).

Windows on ARM is not Windows Phone or the Windows OS in so far as economies
of scale. The tablet market is always going to be really small compared to the
size of the phone and PC markets due to the "third device" nature of tablets
and their orientation toward media consumption rather than productivity. HP
isn't selling a lot of tablets today - nobody is, other than Apple and only
because they don't have to share their slice of the pie with anyone else (i.e.
the Android slice of the market is shared among lots of competitors).

------
jusben1369
HP Exec: "That's IT! We need to go it on our own with our tablet strategy.
Dang, maybe we should acquire a really good mobile OS?"

~~~
excuse-me
No need - they found a really good deal on tablets at BestBuy, they just have
to go and buy them at $99 and resell them for $499

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mattmaroon
I was going to post that this seems like mere sensationalism, then I noticed
the blog's URL.

~~~
robert_nsu
I stopped reading when I got to the part about Windows RT become WART. This
guy has an axe to grind and he just wasted thrity seconds of my life that I
will never get back.

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asadotzler
If HP really abandons Windows, HP is doomed. Printers aren't enough for an
organization that size.

~~~
cdr
The editorial is specifically about HP abandoning Windows RT - linkbaitish
headline.

~~~
jusben1369
Agree. Horrible headline.

~~~
yread
fixed

------
freshrap6
Too bad they didn't keep webOS around...

~~~
fredleblanc
It's not too late to bring it back.

~~~
andyjohnson0
Its gone. HP lost its credibility with app developers - they've moved on and
they're not coming back.

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randomfool
This shouldn't be much of a surprise at all (if confirmed): \- Microsoft's
rumored pricing strategy leaves little room for profit for the HW
manufacturers. \- Before the Surface announcement Microsoft was seeing very
little traction with ARM device manufacturers. ARM devices have been
noticeably quiet during all of the tradeshows.

I'm guessing is that Microsoft prepared the Surface as a backup plan if they
weren't satisfied their HW partners. This turned into a reality and Microsoft
released the Surface knowing full well that they'd lose partners.

I wouldn't be surprised if the high rumored cost of Windows 8 is because
Microsoft calculated it's profit margin (and risk) if it went the Surface
route, then set the price based on that. If it's a zero-sum market (tablet
sale is either Surface or Brand X Windows RT machine) then this works out (and
Microsoft hubris does believe this is a zero-sum game).

------
johnohara
In all fairness to MS, HP's waffling over whether they were selling their
desktop/laptop/othertop business or not and Dell's acquisition of Perot
Systems to become a more services oriented company are flags worth noting.

MS isn't bleeding edge, but they seem to be reading the leaves pretty well.

------
powerslave12r
I hope they pick Linux based distributions or develop their own. That would be
the start of something great.

~~~
mtgx
Apparently Ubuntu is catching on fast in India, and Dell is selling Ubuntu
laptops at 850 retail stores in India now, so that might not be such a bad
plan for HP either.

[http://news.efytimes.com/e1/86247/Ubuntu-Adoption-Grew--
Per-...](http://news.efytimes.com/e1/86247/Ubuntu-Adoption-Grew--Per-Cent-In-
India-Last-Year)

With publishing houses like EA and Valve joining Ubuntu, and changing the
perception that "Linux/Ubuntu is not for mainstream users", and the potential
rejection of Windows 8 by the market, this could get interesting fast.

~~~
andyjohnson0
So 2012 could be The Year of Linux on the Desktop?

~~~
mdda
Google is registering 1,000,000 Linux machines a day. Small desktops, granted.
But (IMHO) the Year of the Desktop was really about the year of Consumer
Linux, which snuck up on everyone upwards, rather than flowing down in machine
size.

------
drivingmenuts
This might actually help Microsoft become more like Apple, if they can shed
some of the OEMs. MS may own the market in several areas, but Apple has the
buzz and the flexibility to do pretty much whatever they think they need to.

It's a pity that these OEMs aren't talking about Linux as a replacement -
accelerating the adoption of Linux would help pretty much everyone (including,
eventually, Microsoft by forcing them to be more innovative).

~~~
adjwilli
Android is a Linux. It's like Portland, the dream of the 90's.

~~~
ConstantineXVI
It's the Linux kernel, but above that it's totally incompatible with the
typical GNU/Linux stack. Linux in Android is just a convenient layer between
the hardware and Dalvik.

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pragmatic
I see someone changed the title?

The article is titled "HP said to dump Microsoft over Surface" which was the
original title posted here.

Now the link title has been changed to "HP said to dump Microsoft ARM tablets
over Surface."

So it was edited to try to make this look like a less inflammatory title? (As
someone pointed out, who is breathlessly waiting for HP ARM tablets with
Windows 8?)

Interesting.

~~~
huggyface
The editors (? is that the right title?) of HN frequently change headlines to
match the linked article, presumably to avoid the Reddit-like draw of linkbait
titles.

~~~
yread
I (the OP) edited it because the article is not about HP dumping MS but about
dumping MS ARM tablets. People were complaining about link-baity headline now
people are complaining about different headline. Oh well

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pmelendez
Honestly, I haven't been impressed by any HP product in a while and being a
big fan of Compaq / HP and an owner of a mobile workstation, it's a bit
frustrating.

I hope this will be a wake up call for them although it seems more like they
want to turn Google in the new Microsoft. I am not terribly eager to see that
happening...

~~~
rjv
Agreed. As a consumer I say good riddance to HP's products. What Vizio is
doing with their PC lineup is far more interesting and I think they'll have a
bright future partnering with Microsoft and their Signature series.

~~~
pmelendez
Thank you.. I didn't hear about Vizio before... indeed they look pretty nice
:)

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sageikosa
HP products only become popular anymore once they stop making them and sell
that at clearance.

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WrkInProgress
How is Surface any different than Google`s Nexus line .....

~~~
TwistedWeasel
Microsoft charges OEM's a significant amount of money to use Windows on their
hardware, Google gives Android away for free.

So, the Surface is able to undercut the OEM's on price significantly.

~~~
WrkInProgress
I was under the impression that Google does have licensing agreements with
OEMs, for the use of Google apps like GMail, Maps, Navigation, Play Store,
etc.

I'm sure it's not $85 per device for the license but the point still remains.

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jccodez
Microsoft is creating a baseline for vendors. HP will be on board. This is
fud.

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notatoad
well, that wasn't a biased article at all.

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Toshio
Nobody in Redmond seems to think of a plan B in case the surface is a flop in
the market.

~~~
kyberias
What makes you say that? I mean, what kind of signals would you expect to hear
from Redmond in case they did have a plan B? Obviously they do and just as
obviously plan B's are almost never public.

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stevejabs
Like HP is really in a position here to call shots? Clearly they are reallllly
successful with the tablet industry.

