
Robot cars on public roads? California says yes - vectorbunny
http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2012/08/robot-cars-on-public-roads-california-says-yes/
======
Jun8
This is fantastic! The adoption could be very fast, e.g. if insurance
companies give benefits if you drive a self-driving car.

One current roadblock is the price of the system: the LIDAR (the thing on the
top of the car in the picture) retails for ~$75K currently. There should be
significant volume to drive the price down. But a lot of people would buy them
for prestige, too (e.g. many early Prius adopters), so if the cost of the
system can be reduced to perhaps $4K-$5K levels people will seriously think
about this.

~~~
sv123
If everybody had a self-driving car, would insurance be obsolete?

~~~
emiliobumachar
Theft would still be an issue. Also, the bots may be less than perfect.

~~~
patrickk
An Orwellian version of autonomous car theft:

"PriusBot has detected you are not authorised to use this vehicle. In
accordance with law XYZ-00A, you are now being driven to the nearest police
station as a precaution."

~~~
brc
PriusBot would be unable to do much about being loaded on a tilt-tray, taken
to a chop-shop and relieved of the various sensors, air bags, catalytic
converters and body panels.

~~~
jrockway
Not to mention a hit from Mr. Short Circuit:
[http://ameblo.jp/ishinkaia/image-10951939627-11353773528.htm...](http://ameblo.jp/ishinkaia/image-10951939627-11353773528.html)

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tocomment
Does anyone know how a self driving car would potentially handle scenarios
like:

1\. A traffic light being out and cop is directing traffic? (Would it have to
learn hand gestures?)

2\. Stopping at a guard booth.

3\. Crossing a solid yellow line to pass a stopped car or a garbage truck?

~~~
bfrs
Looks like you are forgetting _manual override_.

~~~
natrius
Google employees pay attention to the road as the cars drive because that's
their job. Consumers will read the paper and go to sleep while the cars drive.
Manual override is not a solution to this problem. A panic mode that alerts
the driver to take over in uncertain situations could help.

~~~
Devilboy
The cars will be programmed to always ensure that there is enough room to stop
the car safely when something unexpected happens. BMW already has a system to
automatically stop the vehicle safely if the driver is suddenly incapacitated.
And Volvo has one that stops you rear-ending someone. Pretty soon we'll have
cars that are pretty tough to crash, even though the human will still drive it
almost 100% of the time.

That will be amazing, I can't wait!

------
eslachance
I'm very glad to see that this is spreading. It would have been really
annoying for Google to perfect their car and then have nowhere to drive it
because of silly legislations. It wouldn't be the first time senators were
afraid of change...

~~~
OstiaAntica
It isn't "fear" of change, it is that political systems get captured by status
quo interest groups that fight against change.

~~~
heretohelp
Where's the anti-robot car lobby? I doubt most cabbies are even aware of this.

Further, I would submit that this is mostly due to the legislators themselves.

~~~
ihsw
The anti-robot truck lobby will probably come out in full force soon.

A trucker that doesn't have to 1) eat 2) sleep 3) experience fatigue -- this
trucker is vastly superior. There is already a lot of analytics measuring
truck performance, metrics which would make autonomous trucks very feasible.

~~~
run4yourlives
And this is the true market for robotic vehicles (at least at the outset).

Transport trucks spend hours on interstates between points going in relatively
straight lines, at relatively low traffic times.

The trucking industry will be dead 5-10 years after robot trucks start
appearing on the road.

EDIT: Sorry "trucking industry" should be in quotes, as yes, by this I mean
the idea of people driving trucks, which is 90% of the "industry". The actual
industry itself isn't going anywhere, agreed. My fault in the
miscommunication.

~~~
camiller
I'm pretty sure that long-haul truckers are well under half the truck driving
profession. Pay attention to the number of semi-trucks delivering food and
other products to schools / restaurants / convenience stores etc. Oh and those
drivers have to unload the shipments as well. I don't think the truck industry
will disappear, but there will be a shift in the mix of long-haul vs. short-
haul truckers.

~~~
run4yourlives
The "shift" as you put it will be very temporary though. It will quite quickly
become common place for all commercial vehicles to be self directing once some
vehicles are. (Think FedEx, UPS leading this charge)

That said, that "shift" is when it's going to be a really, really shitty time
to be a truck driver, as the influx of people competing for fewer and fewer
jobs is going to drive prices (wages) down into pits of dark despair.

~~~
klipt
With FedEx and UPS you still need someone to drop the package in the
mailbox...

~~~
run4yourlives
Sure, but now that person doesn't need a commercial drivers licence, or a
licence at all.

~~~
bathat
This is a very important point. Not just that, but the "offload person" won't
be a member of the teamster's union (seeing as how they aren't actually
driving the truck) and will have a more reasonable wage.

As chollida1 points out, UPS/Fedex may not be allowed to lift the CLD
requirement quite yet, but that will probably come in time.

------
yonran
Previous discussions of earlier versions of the bill: in March:
<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3688267>, and in May:
<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4010297>

Current bill text:
[http://leginfo.ca.gov/pub/11-12/bill/sen/sb_1251-1300/sb_129...](http://leginfo.ca.gov/pub/11-12/bill/sen/sb_1251-1300/sb_1298_bill_20120824_amended_asm_v93.html)

What seems to have changed since May:

\- The California DMV will set safety rules before 2015 instead of waiting for
NHTSA to allow production use,

\- The manufacturer must apply to the DMV before production use.

\- Cars must record sensor data for 30s before every collision.

What I don’t like about the bill is that it requires an operator to be able to
take manual control of the vehicle at any time. I’d imagine that as autonomous
vehicles develop in the coming years, this restriction will have to be
removed.

~~~
columbo
> What I don’t like about the bill is that it requires an operator to be able
> to take manual control of the vehicle at any time.

I'd feel very strange being in a car without a manual override of some sort.
Maybe in 10 years and only if the vast majority of cars are self driven it
will be a different story. I can't imagine trying to drive through Chicago
hoping that my little robot driver is aware of the two tow-trucks weaving
through traffic behind me at 90mph.

~~~
abruzzi
10 years seems optimistic to me. If autonomous vehicles take off, I doubt
they'll hit majority in less than 30 years, 50 more likely. These probably
won't even be purchasable for 10 years.

------
lunchbox
How is this different from what happened in May?

[http://articles.latimes.com/2012/may/21/business/la-fi-
autos...](http://articles.latimes.com/2012/may/21/business/la-fi-autos-
driverless-20120522)

"California Senate passes bill for self-driving cars"

~~~
mikeyouse
Legislature is an iterative process--

The votes:

Senate Floor (08/29/2012), Assembly Floor (08/28/2012), Assembly Floor
(08/24/2012), Assembly Committee (08/16/2012), Assembly Committee
(07/02/2012), Senate Floor (05/21/2012), Senate Committee (04/10/2012)

The senate approved a version in May, and sent it to the Assembly. The
Assembly added some markup. Only in the last week did the Senate and Assembly
vote on the same bill, which is the process needed to send a bill to the
governor.

(Full history here: [http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/cgi-
bin/postquery?bill_number=sb_1...](http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/cgi-
bin/postquery?bill_number=sb_1298&sess=CUR&house=B&author=padilla))

------
russell
I've been rear-ended 7 times in the past 5 years. I'll be glad when everyone
else has self-driving cars.

(My GF says I drive too fast and stop too quickly. She's probably right,
although 3 of those times I was moving at less than walking speed.)

~~~
aphyr
7 times sounds atypical; perhaps by changing your driving behavior you could
reduce your risk. You might try decelerating slowly, keeping 2-4 seconds of
following distance, checking your rear-view while braking, and leaving extra
space in front of your vehicle at a stop--moving forward as cars come in
behind.

~~~
mparlane
Don't be so logical. You sound like my defensive driving instructor! Killjoy!
:(

 _sarcasm intended_

------
base698
Audi, Cadillac, and Mercedes all have semi autonomous features on the horizon.

<http://www.engadget.com/2012/04/20/cadillac-super-cruise/>

[http://www.insideline.com/audi/audi-previews-traffic-jam-
ass...](http://www.insideline.com/audi/audi-previews-traffic-jam-assistant-
at-2012-ces.html)

[http://www.itnews.com.au/News/296907,rio-tinto-prepares-
mine...](http://www.itnews.com.au/News/296907,rio-tinto-prepares-mine-for-
driverless-trucks.aspx)

~~~
Devilboy
Autonomous trucks are already used in mines in Australia. They are apparently
more reliable than humans, because they never drive too fast, they never drive
too close to the edges, and of course they never get tired or distracted.

------
Sharma
Alright! New field of hacking,security and development will emerge now. People
will try to hack, other people will try to make it secure and some of us will
work on developing fancy apps for these vehicles.

~~~
camiller
Mario Kart IRL?

------
beedogs
Good. The first thing they should do is force anyone over 75 years of age to
use them.

[http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2012/08/fourteen-
injur...](http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2012/08/fourteen-injured-in-
crash-involving-motorist-100.html)

------
farinasa
I personally can't wait to read a book on the way to work.

~~~
jarek
> I personally can't wait to read a book on the way to work.

Yes, what wondrous technology it must be that enables this!

------
tolos
Have there been any studies on whether people actually want autonomous cars (a
quick google search only shows one: <http://www.alpineautotrans.com/?p=326>)?
I think it's a good idea, and I bet most people on HN would agree, but what's
the downside? How many people in the general public would trust a robot
driver? Can you still speed -- if you're late for work -- if you need
emergency medical care? Can you take manual control of the vehicle -- would
that raise insurance rates if you did so? How many people in the general
public would be ok with that?

~~~
tomsaffell
A robot-driven version of my personal car (and how I use it today), is
moderately appealing. But as a stepping stone to a future where an autonomous
robot-driven (flying?) cab pulls up curbside, picks me up, and smoothly,
safely speeds me through a city where the absence of any manually driven
vehicles allows for safer more efficient use of road-space, well, that's very
exciting to me.

~~~
gnaritas
> A robot-driven version of my personal car (and how I use it today), is
> moderately appealing.

Really... you wouldn't find never having to park again very appealing? Having
your car pick you up somewhere, or go get serviced while you're shopping?

~~~
tomsaffell
Moderately appealing. I guess I'd better give the context... I ride my bike
whenever I can, which is >90% of my journeys (I live in SF; the same was also
true in London). I've only ever commuted to work by car for a brief period of
time, and I plan on avoiding it in the future. I prefer to combine train
(CalTrain) and bike for commuting. I occasionally use my car to do a big
grocery shop - it's 5min each way, so I can take or leave a robot there. The
reason I own a car (Subaru) is to get to very remote places in the Sierra
Nevada mountains, to go white water kayaking. The drive across the Central
Valley is very boring, and for that I would love a robot. The bits on hairy
mountain roads (often broken dirt roads), I'd be amazed if we see a robot car
capable of that in my life time (we're talking reading individual boulders to
figure out the line through). What I really need is a helicopter, and pilot..

So that's why I'm only moderately excited for my personal car - I just avoid
using it so much that its not a big deal.

Now, if we could remove SF's rude and navigationally challenged taxi drivers*
from SF'd taxi's, then I'd be happy..

* - they arent _all_ rude..

~~~
gnaritas
Well of course if you don't drive much.

------
Reltair
Yes! Driving in traffic is mind-numbing.

It also doesn't help that traffic seems to be getting worse in the bay area.

~~~
rayiner
But think about how convenient your self-driving car will be when you're
sitting in traffic!

------
rynes
From the view of some consumers (I might be one,) a car may be considered to
be a black box that is used to transport someone/something(s) from point A to
point B. I do not automatically assume that it is always better to instrument
a machine to control such a box rather than having a qualified person control
it.

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chintan
I'm pretty sure you'll have to sign a 'terms & waiver' document similar to the
one before Sky Diving.

------
juiceandjuice
I've seen google's robotic cars already driven on the 280, specifically the
Lexus SUV.

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olalonde
On a related note, does anyone have an idea on how Google plans to
commercialize their technology?

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bsbechtel
What the hell happens when hackers manage to hijack control of these thing
going down the highway?

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sigzero
I love to drive in any kind of traffic. No thanks on the robot car. I want to
remain in control.

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AndrewKemendo
I can see it now: a Lidar and autonomous system integrated on my Tesla S.

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andreer
I'm all for this, but I'm a bit miffed about the terminology:
autonomous/robot/self-driving cars. "Autopilot" is shorter, simpler and well-
established - and IMHO more accurate, as long asa human driver ready to take
over at any time is still required.

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sslayer
I'm surprised we haven't heard from Hoffa.

