
A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles - kaleazy
http://gohe.ro/1wVkvkj
======
diego
The article disregards the fact that a car has features that Uber doesn't. One
is mobile storage: you can store things in your car that you often need
wherever you go. This is particularly important for parents of young children.
Another one is instant availability for open-ended road trips. It's not
feasible to go visit a friend two hours away with the possibility of staying
overnight with an Uber.

If you're going to include the cost of car ownership disadvantages such as
tickets, you should also include the cost of Uber-dependency disadvantages
such as the occasional need to rent a car, always loading and unloading
everything you need to take with you, etc.

~~~
harpastum
This is a good point, but there are also several Uber benefits over car
ownership. For example, being able to travel when tired/inebriated. Also, not
being late if you have an engine issue or get a flat tire. This article tries
to enumerate the financial differences, the subjective ones are also very
important.

~~~
VLM
"Also, not being late if you have an engine issue or get a flat tire."

How does uber prevent that? I suppose with a fleet of cars, another could pick
you up, but you're still going to be late (just not as late)

(edited to add, and on the frontend, I can guarantee that about 45 seconds
after leaving the door at work, I'll be starting my car and moving out of the
lot, how does uber guarantee that a car will be ready to leave for work within
say 15 minutes, so I'd have to burn much more total commute time to make sure
theres a realistic chance I won't be late. TLDR is the std deviation of a
rental is going to be very large compared to an owned car.)

~~~
megablast
> I can guarantee that about 45 seconds after leaving the door at work, I'll
> be starting my car and moving out of the lot.

You can't guarantee that, since car problems to arise.

This is the same issue with bike share schemes. I don't have to worry about
anyone stealing my bike, or if the bike gets a puncture or has issues, I pick
another bike.

~~~
vacri
Car problems arise much less frequently than hire cars have availability
issues, unless you have a particularly crappy car.

------
bane
Geez, $12,744 _per year_?

I've had my current car since 2002, which I bought new for about $14,000
(including interest, which was low because I paid the car off as quickly as I
possibly could, short circuiting most of the interest payments).

I go through the exercise of the total lifetime cost of my car, gas,
insurance, maintenace, all told every year or two. And it's somewhere around
$.30-.40 per mile or about $1 cheaper than Uber.

I recently took it in for its 130,000 mile comprehensive check over and it
ended with my mechanic offering me $5,000 for the car (I didn't sell it).

It's expected that I should be able to get another 100,000 miles out of this
car easily. And at my current rate of driving, that'll be an easy 10 years.

I'm pretty sure I'm going to keep this car unless it needs _major_ mechanical
repairs, and so far it hasn't.

All this means is that my cost per mile keeps going down. I'm at well under
<$4k per year, all lifetime costs included, amortized over the time I've owned
this car and and that number is going down every year.

Right now I probably drive under 5,000 miles per year (telecommuting is
amazing) and even these astonishingly hopeful UberX costs (60 mph commute
times everywhere in cities _bah!_ ) are almost twice what it costs for me to
have my own car I do whatever I want with. More realistically, these commute
times could easily be tripled in most cities, making UberX even less of an
option.

The only thing this answers is "will taking Uber on the occasional 25 minute
or less trip cost less than owning a $50,000 MSRP luxury mid-sized sedan?"
then the answer is obviously yes.

Honestly, if your starting point is a Lexus, you're not really all that
concerned with your transport costs to start with.

 _edit_ I don't even think the math is right.

Let's assume his 24.2 mile commute in 25 minutes ( _haha!_ ). Uber charges
$1.10 + $.21 per minute or $1.31 per mile at 60mph. So let's just make the
numbers easier, 25 mile commute in 25 minutes, so the commute ~ $1.31 * 25 =
$32.75. But I have to go home again in the evening. * 2 = $65.50 per day. *
250 work days in the year = $16,375.

He's off by about $10,000 even _assuming_ these ridiculous commute times.

~~~
nawitus
Wow, car costs per mile are extremely cheap in the United State, if
$.30-.40/mile is typical. The government estimate in Finland is about
$.90/mile, and almost nobody has it that cheap. If I recall correctly, I
calculated my own costs at around $1/mile, and I drive a 14-year-old car which
requires very little maintenance.

~~~
bane
As of 2014, the allowable tax deduction for business reimbursements for
personal vehicle usage is $.56 per mile, which is supposed to cover gas _and_
wear and tear on your personal vehicle.

Finland: according to Numbeo [1] fuel runs around 1.66 Euro per liter. In the
U.S. it's $.96 per liter (or .73 Euro).

I'm guessing there's probably some kind of auto tax in Finland which appears
to be fairly expensive. I've heard it's ~20% of the current cost of the car
per year, but I can't figure out the tax code from looking on-line. In the
U.S. it's complicated, but in places that have a personal property tax, it's
usually pretty low. I think the tax on my car is something like $250/year.

Wear and tear can cost a lot as well. I live in a pretty weather prone part of
the U.S., but I'm guessing it's nothing like the typical Finnish winter.

1 - [http://www.numbeo.com/gas-prices/](http://www.numbeo.com/gas-prices/)

~~~
nawitus
There's "usage tax" which is something like $200 - $400 per year. If the car
is a diesel, it's significantly higher (but diesel is taxed at a lower rate).
Diesel cars are cheaper only if you drive a certain amount of kilometers per
year.

There's also the 'car tax' you pay when you buy a new car, which is rather
high. A $31k car in the United States is about $48k in Finland.

Winter does increase car ownership. Cars rust more, and you also need two sets
of tires (and winter tires tend to wear out faster than summer tires).

------
earino
I live in Los Angeles, I have sold my car and now take UberX everywhere. I
have a number of reasons for this:

1) I am not a great driver. I learned to drive in a rural area where the
dynamics of sharing the road were simply different. It's not fun for me to
drive in LA.

2) Parking in this town is a challenge.

3) I telecommute.

4) When I go on a long-drive vacation, I simply rent a car.

For me and my family, in our calculations, for a family with a telecommuter in
Los Angeles, UberX is well worth it. We don't have to worry about parking when
we get somewhere, we don't have to worry about maintenance, and when we _do_
want to go on a long road trip, we simply rent a nice big car that makes sense
for that particular trip.

~~~
majormajor
LA is also a very bipolar town, car-wise. If you have a 5+ mile commute, it's
going to be way worse than the same distance in most US cities, because of the
traffic. But the flip side is that there is far more density to the LA suburbs
than most anywhere else in the country—it's hard to even use the same word to
describe suburban LA (7K/sqmile average for the whole urbanized area per
Wikipedia, with parts significantly higher) as, say, suburban DFW, where the
population density is half that for Dallas proper alone, let alone all the
suburbs.

So if you live near where you work, you can bike or walk or bus and there's a
decent chance you'll be in walking or biking distance of some shops and
restaurants as well. And then the occasional Uber or cab for longer trips (or
just bumming off of friends who have cars) is extremely practical.

But if you don't telecommute, being able to live near where you work is
something that's a lot easier for those without a family. And then those Ubers
would add up fast!

(The other thing I've anecdotally noticed since moving to LA, is that the
willingness to sit in traffic for an hour each way to commute seems way higher
in LA natives than in transplants—and the reverse is true of the willingness
to pay the premium to live close to work and avoid that.)

------
usaar333
Having done these calculations a while back, I was seriously thrown off by
this claim:

> However, Americans who drive less than 9,481 miles in a year should
> seriously consider ditching their car, because UberX will be cheaper.

Well, maybe. I drive 5k miles a year and determined that it would be more
expensive to shift to either UberX or Zipcar. Let's see what is up with the
math:

> Costs of ownership

The largest error is here, where the author uses a constant number regardless
of miles driven -- and then compares it to variable w/ miles UberX costs!. But
maintenance, insurance, depreciation, and fuel costs are all costs that
increase with miles driven.

Secondly, all these costs are taken from AAA numbers that are looking at 5
year depreciation of a new car. If you drive an older vehicle, your costs are
nowhere near this high. (if they are to be believed, my cars' annual
depreciation would be 80% of the value of my car!)

> Parking costs at $1300/year

First off, the claim on ABC is "average American family", not "average
American" ([http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/average-american-
spends-1300...](http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/average-american-
spends-1300-year-parking-21216093)), so this is likely off by a factor of
nearly 2. Secondly, this is massively skewed by location. In dense locations
(say SF), this can shoot into $2000+ a year, but in lower density places (say
San Jose area), this may be well under $200. Finally, workplace parking can be
paid by pre-tax dollars which lowers this cost by another 30% or so.

> Opportunity costs

Where is the assumption that car driving is at 0% productivity and UberX
riding is at 50% productivity coming from? (I definitely don't believe this
empirically) Also note this is ignoring any opportunity cost of having to wait
for an UberX to arrive. The real opportunity cost difference may be
insignificant.

My own conclusion: A single article won't allow anyone to make a
determiniation. UberX may win in some cases over owning a car, but it is
highly dependent on individual behavior.

~~~
refurb
The only way i can see the average American paying $1300 per year or
$100/month is if they are including the added cost of have a parking space at
home. Remember, $1300 is the average. Most Americans pay nothing for parking
except for a few $10-20 parking fees when going to a big city.

I'm guessing the assumption is that if you rent a place for $1500 per month
and it has a parking space, $100 of that is the cost of the parking space.
Technically correct, but an odd way to look at it.

~~~
wj
I think the assumption was parking for work. Many times if you work in a city
you end up paying $8-$20 a day to park your car for the work day.

------
policenracism
I found his point of being a young black male and not having to be pulled over
again to be striking.

I am sure that black people are pulled over more times by the police then
whites are. What could be the reasoning and the solution(s). Is it because...

\- The cops are really racist? \- The cops are looking for a suspect that
matches those unfairly targeted? In which and unfortunately points to a
statistic that black males (those from low income areas & raised without a
parental unit(s)) are more prone to crime. In the area I live there are really
bad parts of town you do not want to enter due to high crime, gangs, murders,
etc and that part of town the majority is black.

Is there a solution because I know I would be pissed just because I am getting
pulled over because I resemble a suspect the cops are looking for.

Though maybe the cops are just racist?

I don't know just pondering here as this is a current affair topic one that is
being talked about more and more these days.

~~~
Aloha
Yes.

The cops really are that racist - I'm not black - I'm about as white as you
can get even (somewhere in my history there is a Norwegian bachelor-farmer
:-P) but I've asked my friends of color, how often they felt they had been
pulled over because they were a person of color in a place where a person of
color perhaps ought not be - and all of them, uniformly answered "Yes, at
least once a year, often more"

------
sixQuarks
His calculations are simply wrong. In his examples, the cost of annual car
ownership remains $12,744 despite the different mileage estimates.

If you drive only 5,000 miles per year, your ownership costs are going to be
much less than if you drive 13,000 miles. Why did he not adjust the cost of
ownership?

~~~
VLM
"In his examples, the cost of annual car ownership remains $12,744 despite the
different mileage estimates."

Its actually even worse. The ownership cost lists "Total cost per year
(assuming 15,000 miles driven a year)" and that 15K miles is compared to Uber
at 5K, 9K, and 13K miles. I am not surprised to discover that it costs more to
drive a car 15K miles than 5K miles.

There are other assumption problems. For example like almost all people I
can't will myself to generate $2500 of extra marginal after tax revenue while
driving (and all the math in the article assumes a zero percent income tax
rate, which seems optimistic). Frankly in a taxi I'd probably be about as
productive as I am in my car, listening to audiobooks. Parking costs tend to
be very binary, if you live and work urban its incredibly expensive and the
$1K/yr might only be a fond dream. For me, I'm lucky enough not to live urban
so its free. I'm mystified how he's both making car payments on an almost new
car and paying hundreds per year for maintenance at the same time. My '14
toyota came with a sales incentive or whatever its called such that I won't be
paying for anything but gas until the payments are done after which a couple
oil changes a year for the next 15 years aren't going to cost $400/yr. I just
paid my registration at $75 which is up from $25 two decades ago ago while
he's paying over $350. I do not pay property tax on my car, I don't put it
past the more uncivilized areas to try that, but its not an issue for me.
Maybe he's breaking down the fraction of gasoline fuel pump cost which is
taxes, I could believe the numbers in that case.

The arithmetic in the article doesn't make much sense.

------
foobarqux
He completely omits the effect of surge pricing but expects you to use Uber to
commute to work.

------
RealGeek
The cost of car ownership in this article is inflated by almost 200%. It
accounts payments / depreciation + interest + registration as $5,561 yearly
for a mid sized sedan.

I've leased two mid-size sedans for $200/mo and $300/mo including interest,
all taxes, dmv / title / registration fees. So, I am paying $2,400 / year for
one car, and $3,600 /year for another, compared to $5,561 represented in the
article.

------
eks
Uber is great, but the biggest cost is that you need to pay for the services
of someone driving for you. I live in Montreal and regularly use
[http://communauto.com/](http://communauto.com/) They have two services, 1)
for ~$2,50/hour + $0,10/km, where you need to make a reservation, you get the
car from one specific parking lot and have to return it there. It's useful
only if you plan in advance, if you haven't reserved a car for the weekend by
Wednesday forget about it.

The 2) service though you just swipe your metro card on the panel for an auto-
mobile car parked somewhere, drive for $0,30/minute and leave the car anywhere
(in some very big zones in the cities). It's exactly like
[https://www.car2go.com/](https://www.car2go.com/) except their auto-mobile
vehicles (hybrids and electrics) have backseat, so we can go around with kids
(whereas you can't with a Smart).

I commute by bicycle to work, so we use this only on the weekends. It takes
around $7 to go from our place to the center, while public transport would be
$5, so it's really great for the convenience and speed.

By far it really beats owning a car in Montreal in cost and convenience.
Parking space is limited and very expensive ($8 for 2 hours in city center).
If you have a car you have also to keep changing parking even if you don't use
it because there are very few buildings with garage and they clean the streets
at least once or twice a week for the entire year. I've been car-free for over
20 years, it's a huge relief to not have to worry about taxes, maintenance,
robbery, etc etc that comes with the responsibility of owning a car.

Come self-driving cars, we might have only some very few people that will keep
owning their own vehicles due to some nostalgia feeling.

------
vkjv
Wow, I was floored by the average cost of ownership. Mine is nowhere near that
low:

1\. $0. I don't have payments is 15 years old, so it's not depreciating
significantly. 2\. $1250. I fill up about once every two weeks. Old cars have
less safety features, which me ans better fuel efficiency. 25 mpg. 3\. $0.
I've never had an auto loan. 4\. $300. Old car and perfect driving record.
Still have good coverage (uninsured motorist, etc.). 5\. $500. Here's where an
old car starts to bite. 6\. $355. I have no clue so I'll go with what they
said.

Total ownership: $2405. That's not significantly more than riding the bus
would cost.

~~~
MichaelApproved
Fewer safety features /= better fuel efficiency. New cars, loaded with safety
feature can get better fuel efficiency than 25mpg.

Regarding the 25mpg, is that a recent calculation or are you going off the
info sheet your car had when you purchased it. Unless you took excellent care
of your car, I'd bet you're not getting 25mpg.

~~~
mgkimsal
Not the OP, but...

My car is 10 years old - 170k miles on it - I still get > 25mpg, and I
calculate every fill-up. Long trips I get ~30mpg. Around town it's 26-28,
depending on how much I use the AC and at what times I'm driving.

Could I be off in my fill-up estimations? Possibly some now and then, but it's
been pretty consistent for the last several years.

~~~
VLM
I've been driving for awhile, and as I think back on all the mileage related
mechanical problems my 87 horizon had that would cause an insta ODB-II fail on
my 14 toyota, I'm thinking OP is older-ish like me.

My '87 was one of the last models with a carb (or am I thinking of the '81 ?)
and it had a mechanical choke that would get stuck on a regular basis in the
winter and the thermostat also broke / got confused. I think most of the time
I was driving around with what on a modern car would be at least 2 or 3 engine
code violations. It was reliable as in it always got me to work, but it was
not economic or efficient and was usually broken at one level or another.

Modern cars are just more reliable and self diagnose very effectively.

------
pkaye
He makes average assumptions about car ownership but then makes optimistic
assumptions about UberX. Like no surge pricing, productivity and wait times.

The biggest thing is of course Uber is available in a few cities. Places like
SF and Manhattan it might be convenient since everything is nearby but in LA
and Silicon Valley everything is spread out.

~~~
WalterSear
The other biggest thing: uber is a one company, and a startup. They may be
forced to radically change their business models, their service may turn to
shit, and they might even go up in smoke overnight.

~~~
krschultz
And if that happens, there are plenty of car dealers ready to take your money.
It only takes 2-3 days to buy a car, people do it all the time.

------
medius
"In fact, he believes one day all the Uber cars on the road may be driving
themselves."

What piece of "cars driving themselves" does Uber have? Uber has an app.
Google has self driving cars and they can also build an app. So he is
basically describing Google's future, not Uber's.

~~~
baddox
Once self-driving cars are available, Uber would be a major company deploying
them (assuming Uber is still around and similarly positioned). They could
either buy their own cars, or somehow allow private "drivers" to deploy their
cars on the Uber network.

~~~
krschultz
That is certainly the thesis behind the wild valuation of Uber - but so far
Uber hasn't really shown the ability to lock customers into its taxi network.
Whoever develops the self driving cars can build the Uber app/network part of
the system much more easily than Uber will be able to build the self driving
car part of the system.

~~~
pjc50
It's not clear how you _could_ lock someone into a taxi network - by
definition, each taxi journey is a separate purchase, unaffected by previous
decisions (once you've installed the app in the first place).

Prepay discount mentioned above is about the only legitimate possibility.
There are plenty of not-so-legitimate possibilities (see the Uber vs Lyft
poaching discussion)

------
cpprototypes
For Los Angeles, UberX, Lyft, and others have the potential to solve the "last
mile" issue of public transit. Especially with newer carpool features like
UberPool and Lyft Line.

LA is currently investing a lot into building more light rail infrastructure.
However, regardless of how much LA invests in rail, for most commuters the
rail will only get them most of the way to their workplace. Before UberX and
Lyft, the only options for the last leg of the trip were bicycle (which has a
lot of limits), bus (too unreliable), and taxi (too expensive).

UberX and Lyft provide an option that didn't exist before. And it's cheap and
reliable enough to a be a very good option. As LA continues to build more
rail, I think it has the potential to greatly change commuting in the future.
Maybe it will become common for young single people to not own a car and rely
on Uber/Lyft combined with rail. And then when they get married and have kids,
then buying one car makes sense. The result would also greatly reduce traffic
and air pollution.

~~~
jusben1369
Great points! I actually fear that investment in light rail is going to look
misplaced in just 10 years when automated electric cars operated by private
companies like Uber and Lyft and whomever are going to scoot multiple people
between two common points.

~~~
wj
Potentially. But LA has millions of daily commuters. Automated electric cars
will still clog up the freeways (thought hopefully less so due to less
accidents, etc.) but the light rail should hopefully move more people quickly
for 80% of their trips with Uber and Lyft providing the last mile.

I personally think they should stop construction on the subway to the sea and
roll our light rail across the city.

~~~
jusben1369
I hear what you're saying. But what is light rail but several electric cars
daisy chained? If you can put 4 people in one (a la car pooling) and give them
a dedicated HOV lane between places.......

~~~
delg
Jesus, I guess, but compare the space efficiency of a rush hour train in an
urban area to 4 people in an electric car. Not that I would want to sit in a
car with 3 strangers, or my spouse and baby with 2...

------
jusben1369
This is great work! Most comments here are always going to go negative on the
data he collects. "This is not true! I own a 1981 VW diesel with 220,000 miles
on it and the only thing I've had to fix...."

Avoiding those ratholes for a moment I want to look at the other side. The
Uber economics. Uber's pricing is based on the assumption that you're not
using Uber as your full time car replacement. Put another way, I'm waiting for
the Uber monthly subscription that gives me up to X miles per month for Y
cost. If I commit to that many miles I'm pretty sure that can drive down the
cost per mile in a meaningful way....say 20 - 30% vs the current "pay as you
go on demand model"

Lastly I think the first logical place to look is the 2 car family. You can
shelve one and still have your own car for long family vacation trips or other
immediate requirements while using Uber for that person that's got a pretty
predictable 5 day a week commute etc.

~~~
afafsd
>This is great work! Most comments here are always going to go negative on the
data he collects

That's because the "data" is crap. He's picked numbers to get an unreasonably
high idea of the cost of owning a car, then used rosy assumptions to show that
Uber is cheaper.

Change the input and you change the conclusions, so I'm not going to give the
guy a pat on the head just for effort.

------
gameshot911
The model assumes 50% of full working productivity while taking an UberX ride.
I doubt many people are going to meet that over the course of all their rides,
not to mention that if you're salaried you aren't losing wages by not working
in the car.

~~~
willhinsa
You may not be losing wages, but you are losing time. I think that the 50%
assumption in the model is wrong, too, but in the opposite direction. There
are activities that many people can do while riding in a vehicle with no loss
of quality, like reading.

Randy Pausch - Time Management
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTugjssqOT0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTugjssqOT0)

~~~
gameshot911
Good point, I didn't think about the value of being able to do other
activities. Hard to quantify with a monetary value though!

~~~
willhinsa
Actually it's not difficult. Calculate your hourly wage (salary +
benefits)/hours_worked, and value all of your time as such. It will help you a
lot to avoid wasting time doing stuff you don't like that you can pay people
to do for you at a lower cost to you.

~~~
ghaff
That makes the assumption that you can earn that wage in the incremental time
you gain by having someone do a task for you. Maybe if you're an independent
consultant or otherwise have a business where you bill by the hour and are
turning down work you simply don't have time to do but would otherwise be
happy to take it. But that doesn't describe most people.

I do pay to have a number of things done for me on a regular basis that I
either don't like to do or don't consistently have the time to do (like
getting my lawn cut), but it's more about how much I'm willing to pay for the
service as opposed to how the $/hour compares to what I earn.

~~~
VLM
"like getting my lawn cut"

This is a particularly bad example, because not only would I have to pay
someone to mow my lawn for me, to get my light exercise I'd also have to pay
to use someone else's treadmill to get my exercise. This is starting to get
expensive and rapidly looking cheaper to just mow my own lawn.

"turning down work" \- If I have 8 hrs of work per day and waste 2 hrs of time
per day on the internet, I'd rather waste internet time on the couch at home,
than try to sneak it in at work because I did some of my work elsewhere. If I
work extra hard for free, my great-great-great-grand-boss might get a bigger
bonus, but all I'll get is less free time in my life, absolutely nothing more.

------
cj
The biggest flaw is the assumption that people who live in cities where Uber
is available drive an average of 13,476 miles per year (with avg commute
distance of 25 miles).

Those numbers are the national average, but I'd guess the average miles per
year is significantly lower for people living in major cities.

When I lived in rural New York I easily drove 10-20k miles in a year. But now
that I live and work in San Francisco, I drive about 3-4k miles per year, with
a daily commute of 7 miles round trip.

It'd be interesting to see a similar analysis that limits the data set to
people who live and work in major cities where Uber is available.

~~~
IvyMike
> I'd guess the average miles per year is significantly lower for people
> living in major cities.

I'll agree, with the exception of Los Angeles, which is atypical in how spread
out it is. 13.5k is perfectly believable.

[http://laist.com/2012/06/30/map_how_many_major_us_cities_can...](http://laist.com/2012/06/30/map_how_many_major_us_cities_can_fi.php)

------
wj
Every article about Uber, Lyft, and electric vehicles ends up with the
majority of the comments saying something along the lines of, "This is stupid
because it doesn't fit my situation."

For what is usually such an open-minded group of individuals it seems as if
personal transportation is the topic where that open-mindedness doesn't
extend.

(Though that might be true for the population as a whole--gas prices is a
legitimate political issue.)

~~~
sokoloff
Opining about the negative convenience aspects of relying on a car service is
hardly being closed-minded, IMO. There are very legitimate hurdles to Über et
al displacing private cars. Talking about those hurdles (aside from the joking
alpaca one) is normal, not evidence of closed-mindedness.

------
rdl
I will probably remain a holdout for personal vehicle ownership even if the
economics don't work out, but I think in my case they don't, anyway.

2006 Audi A4, paid off (worth about $12k as it sits), with 126k miles. $300/yr
reg, $600/yr comprehensive/collision/liability insurance. I spent about $600
every 2 years on tires (so, $300/yr), $500-1000/yr on maintenance otherwise,
and drive about 20k miles/yr. Free parking at home; $260/mo parking in SF, and
$4-6 bridge tolls about 20 times a month. I get about 22mpg with premium gas,
so $4.20/gal or so in California. I think my costs are around $0.40/mi. In any
case, less than $0.57/mi, so it's "free" when reimbursed. Plus I actually like
driving.

Being able to go from home to office in 17 minutes off-peak, or ~30 minutes
98th percentile traffic, vs. 50+ miles via transit, and not having to be
around SF people for 2h/day: worth every penny.

(Also, having earthquake, colo-emergency, etc. stuff stashed in the trunk all
the time, and a _huge_ battery and generator for laptop, cell, etc.)

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webwright
Should've run the numbers with Car2Go.

Uber in LA costs 67 cents per minute (avg. speed in LA is 26MPH). Car2Go in LA
costs 25-41 cents per minute (41 per minute with a max of $15/hr).

Unsurprisingly, one of the more expensive parts about Uber is having a human
being driving the car for you. Car2Go (if you don't mind driving janky little
SmartCars) trims that cost now.

~~~
TTPrograms
You can't work during the commute in that case, however - the author referred
to this as an opportunity cost of driving. Working in tech one would imagine
in many cases work would be much more productive than driving.

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contingencies
I lived in LA for a year and don't even have a license. I bought a road bike
and cycled to and from work, though if drinking was (frequently) involved I'd
throw my bike in the back of a cab. Assuming the average fare was around $60,
and I used a cab five times per week, that was $300/week. I was considering
buying a motorbike to evade this rising fee when our company was bought by
HTC, the company reshuffled, by job disappeared, and I was suddenly placed in
to a US visa expiry grace period where I had 10 days to get out of the country
or face being an illegal immigrant (despite many people wanting to employ me,
I had to leave and return to comply with their visa rules). I opted out (once
bitten, twice shy re: visas), and was very glad that I only had to sell my
road bike at a loss... rather than a car.

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Aloha
I grew up in LA - Uber is a practical car replacement option if you stay
largely within your neighborhood or city.

This isn't how most people in the basin live however - many (if not most) live
at least 10, but usually closer to 20-25 miles from work, and rely on the
freeway to get them to work - 50+ miles a day even in an UberX is not
practical from a cost basis - not when you consider the large number of people
who don't go out and buy a large luxury car, but instead pick up a beater
economy car from craigslist, or something that they bought new a decade or
more prior.

The comparison however does work when you consider someone who commutes under
10 miles each way a day, and buys a new car every 3-5 years.

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chrismcb
The math in this article is awful. Constant cost despite varying the miles
driven. Making money out of thin air. Yes you can talk about intangibles, such
as the ability to do work while not driving. You can even give that a monetary
value to do comparisons. But I'm not going to make more money by working while
not driving, so don't add this opportunity cost to the cost of the car. Or
maybe you should add up the opportunity cost of waiting for the uber car. You
also can't just ignore surge pricing. Not everyone needs to own a car. But
there are a lot of advantages, some that are hard to put a dollar figure on.

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Aloha
"About two years ago I sold my Lexus GS 300 and replaced it with a sleek
single-speed Pure Fix commuter bike"

This brought a vision of someone trying to descend from capitol hill here in
seattle on a fixie (something I saw the last week) - a fixie, while still
stupid is at least workable in LA (though I'd still never own one, I prefer
gears), it still seems wholly impractical for seattle.

~~~
bbrian
I see single-speed bikers as the luddites of cycling. I live in a relatively
flat city, Dublin, but I am still constantly shifting gears. I think a lot of
people don't understand how good gears really are. In a similar way, there are
a lot of people cycling mountain bikes around the city, and I didn't
appreciate how much better actual road bikes are while I still had my hybrid.
And for non-cyclists: 15 mph (25 kmph) is a fairly reasonable commuting speed.

~~~
Aloha
neo-luddites perhaps, when I was an active cyclist a bit more than a decade
ago the fixie was an unknown thing. There were single speed bikes then - the
well known beach cruiser - it was a single speed, yes, but it also could idle
along without peddling and had a rear drum brake - I can see a place for that
kind of thing - no one has been able to explain to me how a direct drive fixed
gear bicycle is better than even that option.

~~~
joeguilmette
It's like a manual vs an automatic vehicle. You aren't forced to constantly
pedal, so much as your legs must move at the same speed as the pedals. At low
speeds you are much more connected to the bicycle. Taking a low speed, sharp
turn is more akin to walking and feels much more natural.

Also, it enforces good form, like pedaling thru turns.

Small speed adjustments are natural and easy. Also, when accelerating, the
pedals are moving regardless of input, so you can simply tap them down on the
downstroke, hovering your foot above the pedal on the up stroke.

There is a reason a fixed gear is a popular configuration and it has little to
do with being cool or hip.

~~~
tedunangst
Why do I want to pedal through turns? I've never ridden a bike that way.

~~~
joeguilmette
It's like accelerating thru a turn while driving, it's proper form.

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stevenhubertron
The calculations also aren't factoring in resell. Sure I might buy a car for
$25,000, but when I sell it I am going to get at least $10,000 back out of it
so the car itself only costs $15,00.

If you combine that with buying used, better gas milages in cars and piece of
mind the calculation becomes harder. Especially if your in an urban city with
multiple transportation options.

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cpolis
The numbers are skewed because the car ownership costs are based on national
averages(lower than LA averages, presumably).

I think any Angeleno would kill to pay the national average for fuel costs and
commute 25.2 miles in 25 minutes.

~~~
fawnzworth
I live in LA, we're LUCKY to go 10 miles in in 25 minutes.

~~~
Aloha
a decade ago when I still lived in the basin - I found 30 miles an hour bumper
to bumper was a pretty normal commute - its better than seattle still :-P

------
pacaro
None of this is relevant if you have a child or dog. I know that Uber are
starting to make provisions for children but there's a long way to go. But try
getting a 140lb dog to the vet without your own car...

~~~
thrownaway2424
Why do people insist on bringing up things like this that are totally
irrelevant to the common case? Only half of American households own dogs and
140lbs is a 99.9th-percentile dog body weight so this little issue of yours is
relevant to at most one of every 2000 households.

You also can't haul an alpaca in uber, since we're enumerating corner cases.

~~~
pacaro
Hahahaha, true I have a ridiculous dog, but the classic family pet (I'm
thinking lab, retriever, pit, etc.) is easily in the 40-90 lb range. I have no
idea what taxi or Uber policies are for this situation, I know that they turn
a blind eye to dogs small enough to be held on your lap. To literally replace
the family car all these cases need to be covered, not just the convenient
single urbanite cases

~~~
thrownaway2424
To make a huge positive benefit in our transportation system and built
environment we need only take 10% of cars off the road, so I think they won't
come to take away your family car just yet. Certainly there are many excellent
reasons to own one. But on the other hand the impossibility of car-free and
car-light lifestyles are overstated.

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mstdokumaci
25.2 miles in 25 minutes in average? it means 60.48 mph or 97.33 km/h. doesn't
sound right to me. you can't have that overall average even you always travel
intercity.

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lucberlin
Who drives less than 5k miles/year? And if you do, public transportation is
probably excellent?

------
mathgladiator
This is a great start. I would love to see a calculator similar to NY times
mortgage calculator.

------
ilaksh
Lyft is actually a little cheaper isn't it? So how does that affect the
calculation?

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taksintik
Self driving car = best of both worlds

------
notastartup

        This brings total costs to $18,115 per year ($1509 per 
        month) if you used UberX to drive everywhere. 
        Unfortunately, even without car payments and 
        depreciation, fuel costs, interest, insurance, 
        maintenance and repairs, registration and taxes, parking 
        fees, speeding tickets and opportunity costs, Uber is 
        still slightly more expensive for the average American 
        who drives 13,476 miles per year. In this case, it would 
        be cheaper to own and drive the medium-sized sedan.

