
1 in 68 children on autism spectrum, says US CDC - sebleon
https://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/autism/data.html
======
johnnyg
Prematurity is linked to developmental delay and is suspected to be correlated
with more pronounced Autism spectrum attributes.

I wonder, in addition to the likely chemical sources, how many more children
born early are saved than were in previous decades, and how they may be
contributing to this rise.

I know that Surfactant has been around for decades now and I suspect but don't
have data that it was the last truly game changing upgrade to NICUs.

The CDC has said with this data "this is up". I think the data is out there to
also give a range of reasons and a likelihood for each.

On a personal note, if you suspect your child may be at risk for Autism, early
therapy is available and effective. Get it, get it now, get as much of it for
your child as you can. My contact info is in my profile and I am happy to
point you to the data and assistance.

~~~
paulddraper
Multiple studies link parental age to autism. Teenage mothers, and to a much
greater extent older parents (especially fathers) have a higher chance of
autistic children.

[http://www.npr.org/sections/health-
shots/2015/06/10/41320592...](http://www.npr.org/sections/health-
shots/2015/06/10/413205921/more-evidence-that-parents-ages-could-influence-
autism-risk)

[https://www.autismspeaks.org/science/science-news/study-
ties...](https://www.autismspeaks.org/science/science-news/study-ties-
dad%E2%80%99s-age-risk-autism-other-mental-disorders-kids)

[https://www.autismspeaks.org/science/science-news/large-
stud...](https://www.autismspeaks.org/science/science-news/large-study-parent-
age-autism-finds-increased-risk-teen-moms)

It doesn't seem to be enough to account for the whole difference, but given
the increasing parental age at birth, it's an appealing theory. Lots of
developmental disorders, e.g. Down's syndrom, have already been linked to
older parents.

I know "45 is the new 25" is popular, but biology is harder to convince.

~~~
DenisM
Perhaps autistic fathers are taking more time to find a mate, and they also
pass on their genes.

~~~
nkrumm
The underlying biology of spermatogenesis is also involved. As males age, the
germ cells (~stem cells) that produce sperm are continuously dividing. One of
the daughter cells from the division becomes sperm, the other continues on as
a germ cell [0]. Over time and with aging, the germ cells accumulate new
mutations (primarily single nucleotide changes), which are then also passed on
in the newly created sperm. While it is also possible that a mother's eggs
carries a new mutation, these do not increase in frequency with aging because
her eggs are created in utero and do not undergo the lifetime of regeneration
that the father's sperm do.

These "de novo" mutations can sometimes affect or "break" genes important for
normal development, thus resulting in autism. They can be studied by
sequencing father/mother/child families and comparing the genetic sequence of
each. The de novo mutations show up in the child only. We can differentiate if
they arose in the father's sperm or the mother's eggs by examining the
"haplotype" around each of these mutations (basically, looking for other
nearby mutations that were _inherited_ by the child from either mom or dad).

For more on this, see this paper:
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22495309](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22495309)

[0]:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spermatogenesis#/media/File:Sp...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spermatogenesis#/media/File:Spermatocytogenesis.png)

------
Havoc
"on spectrum" is a pretty loose definition though. I bet a decent chunk of the
hn crowd could be made to fit onto the extra-mild side of the spectrum if one
tries (myself included).

That's not meant to trivialise a real problem...point is the cut-off point is
decidedly vague so stats like these are dicey at best.

~~~
sjg007
This is not true. There are specific indicators that are very well
established.

~~~
Havoc
Even indicators are a spectrum.

------
nl
The definition of autism has changed significantly over time[1] and many
studies[2] show this is correlated with the rate increased.

As it happens autism diagnosis is first possible around the same time as
certain vaccines are given[3].

[1] [http://www.unstrange.com/dsm1.html](http://www.unstrange.com/dsm1.html)

[2] eg
[http://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2015/01/05/majority-o...](http://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2015/01/05/majority-
of-autism-increase-due-to-diagnostic-changes-finds-new-study/)

[3]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia)

~~~
sjg007
They've actually found that you can diagnose autism in even younger children
e.g under a year. Way before vaccines are given. However such screening has
not yet become widespread.

I think an AI program could help screen here.

~~~
mgamache
Some vaccines are given at birth at many others by two months and still others
at 4 months (in the US). I am not aware of any test that can work that early.

[https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/hcp/imz/child-
adolesc...](https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/hcp/imz/child-
adolescent.html)

------
sjg007
This is a major public health crisis and there's not enough being done to help
these kids. Where treatment is available there are long waitlists. Also ABA
therapy is a huge growth industry. I encourage everyone to get involved. I
worry greatly that the repeal of the ACA will doom many of these children in
many states.

~~~
orik
Autistic individuals don't need treatment, they need accommodation from
society. (in my opinion, as an autist)

~~~
zzalpha
I think it unreasonable for you to claim to speak for everyone on the
spectrum.

Is what you say true for some? Sure.

But there are many far more severely impaired who desperately need better
support systems, as do their caregivers.

~~~
nsgi
(S)he has more right to speak for us than the majority of (neurotypical)
decision makers.

~~~
AnkhMorporkian
Only for those on the lighter edge of the spectrum. I have a severely autistic
sister who requires constant care and could never be functional in society. I
feel I have more right to speak for her than the OP does. The neurotypical or
neuroatypical decision makers argument doesn't really play when the
individuals we're discussing lack the ability to make decisions in their own
best interests.

~~~
DanBC
But your sister, and her family, needs better accommodations from society.

~~~
AnkhMorporkian
She needs better treatment, so perhaps someday she could live something even
resembling a normal life. She already gets plenty of accomodations from the
government and society as a whole, living in a group home, etc. I don't know
what other accomodations could really be made.

------
clarkevans
There is an inspiring TED talk, "A new way to diagnose autism" (2012) on early
diagnosis using eye tracking by Ami Klin of the Marcus Autism Center:
[https://www.ted.com/speakers/ami_klin](https://www.ted.com/speakers/ami_klin)

Early diagnosis is critical for treatment and helping the affected child and
their family. The linked CDC site says average age of diagnosis is 4 years of
age, which is shown to be more expensive for society as a whole. We have
reliable ways to diagnose by 2 years now (and eye tracking could lower this
perhaps to 9 months or earlier). Early diagnosis should be standard of care.

------
pasbesoin
Here is a simple appeal. By some definitions, I may fall somewhere on this
spectrum.

I have always done very good work. But I need peace and quiet -- a
distraction-free environment -- to think for myself. I'm also capable of
interacting well with people and need some significant degree of it. But under
my control.

The world, however, has continually insisted I conform (mightily, and
exhaustingly, and stressfully) to its generalized, undifferentiated, trend-
influenced, and -- observing those around me -- not terribly effective model
of "randomly and noisily shoved together".

As I say, some amount of random, or at least different, and serendipity is
very beneficial.

But -- _whatever the cause_ \-- please just acknowledge what works for me.
Which I've figured out despite all the messaging, enculturation, and external
pressure to the contrary. _Just let me be._ And let me work effectively. Give
me a little quiet space in which to do so. It's not like society can't afford
it (certainly not, here in the U.S.).

 _Causes, causes, causes..._ Stop for a second, and just deal with the reality
at hand. Everyone will end up happier, and more productive.

------
saycheese
It would really interested in seeing a heat map of the "counts of autism by
zip code" overlaid with another heat map showing "counts of autism by zip code
as a percentage of the population" \- since it might show areas that are over
and under reporting.

------
labster
Technically aren't 68 out of 68 children on the spectrum? The point of a
spectrum is that it includes all values.

~~~
anotherevan
And it’s observations like that that someone on the spectrum would make.

Perhaps we could agree that “on the spectrum” in this case is a messy
neurotypical shorthand for being on the colourful end of the spectrum
(autistic) rather than the grey boring end (non-autistic).

------
drc0
the increase in prevalence here [0] is due to more accurate identification ?

[0]
[https://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/autism/images/addmnetworkprevalen...](https://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/autism/images/addmnetworkprevalence2016.jpg)

~~~
arcanus
And at what point does this become an overdiagnosis, versus an increase in
prevalence?

I'm by no means suggesting that autism can be an extremely serious disorder.
The question is if these numbers represent an increase in serious cases.

~~~
anigbrowl
Why not go and research that for yourself? I don't wish to be uncivil but I've
heard this question so often for the last 20 years that I now regard it as
little more than concern trolling. I get it, it's hard to make meaningful
quantitative statements about a behavioral disease whose clinical parameters
are hard to define.

But it's a naive point and this subject has been a topic of public debate for
a long time now, so the skeptical signalling gets really tedious after a
while. It's about as enjoyable as if I described your work as a computational
scientist as 'pushing buttons all day' or made some crack about it being an
excuse to play video games, as a way of signaling a lack of regard for nerdy
pursuits.

------
xherberta
Vaccines are life-saving and necessary. There is no evidence linking them to
autism.

But, WHY do children in the US need nearly 4x as many doses by age two as
compared with children in Germany and Finland? Since childhood diseases aren't
problematic in those countries, you'd think we could get similar results with
a streamlined schedule that looks more like Europe's.

Edit: thanks for the data. European schedules have changed since I knew them.

~~~
dpark
I don't know. Why do people make these sorts of fear-mongering claims with no
supporting data?

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccination_policy#/media/File...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccination_policy#/media/File:US_Vaccination_Schedule.png)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccination_policy#/media/File...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccination_policy#/media/File:Germany_Vaccination_Schedule.png)

From what I can tell, this claim is simply false. The biggest difference in
German vs US vaccination seems to be the lack of recommended flu vaccination
in Germany. Plus rotavirus, which is perhaps less prevalent in Germany?

------
nnyms2
There was a recent post about lack of Vitamin D. Link to my comment -
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13210531](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13210531)

~~~
AstralStorm
Yes, it could be that, or some environmental factor such as a material used in
buildings now more than ever.

Epidemiologists will have some trouble sorting this out though.

And afterwards, interventional studies have to be ran.

------
a_thro_away
Yeah! So lets pull from everyone basic, guaranteed health insurance, because
every 1 in 68 persons should be able to generate a buck, somehow. And the
other 27% of US population that has an existing condition too. Double good if
a child, let's bill their parents for decades under a high risk pool until
they too are broke and wards of the state. Let the downvotes rip, myopic
people who can't understand a dollar is an imaginary thing, subject to
whatever society says it is worth - not the other way around.

