
Lose It or Lose It - Why, How, and How Much - dchs
http://forge38.com/blog/2009/12/lose-it-or-lose-it-why-how-and-how-much
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lachyg
This is brilliant. I love how he shared his milestones, and costings. What do
you guys think of the app? Do you think he will get venture or angel?

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MichaelSalib
I have no idea if he will be successful in a business sense. However, I do
think it is unlikely that he will help many people. The economists at Marginal
Revolution point to research indicating that betting on weight loss is
generally ineffective: people don't lose the weight:
[http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/09...](http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/09/should-
you-bet-on-your-own-ability-to-lose-weight.html)

Ultimately, if you're taking money from people with the expectation that the
vast majority of them will fail, well, that doesn't seem like the kind of
business that will generate lots of referrals from happy customers. People
generally don't like to share their personal failures. Beyond that, focusing
on weight per se seems problematic from a public health perspective. It is
extremely difficult to lose weight but also not strictly necessary for health
benefits. If you can run 10 miles in an hour, it really doesn't matter what
your weight is, and the ability to do is a much better predictor of future
health.

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Watts
I used this site starting around February of this year. I thought it was
really helpful and I ended up losing close to 30lbs in 10 weeks because of it
(I've also kept it off since then, too). It wasn't really the money that
mattered - I guess I saw it as sort of a game and it was fun to try and beat
the goals from week to week. Also, having my friends cheer me on helped a lot
(you have to have a couple of friends sign up with you to keep you honest).
Perhaps I could have done it on my own without this site but the idea really
worked for me.

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ivankirigin
Is there a <http://withings.com> integration? If not, why? That seems mind-
numbingly obvious. I would consider doing this if there was an integration.

Note that the user experience would be much better too. Rather than need to
upload photos, I would just use my scale normally.

Also, you could incentivize the photos by reducing the amount you lose. You
could lose less of your bid when you miss a weigh-in by, for example, getting
people to join the service. They could then follow your progress to make sure
you don't miss your next one.

Finally, I'd make this about a charity and only take a cut of the losses.
There isn't much reason you deserve hundreds of dollars for lazy people. This
might decrease the success rate but increase your signup rate.

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tikaro
Hey, this is John, I'm Randy's minority partner in the site (and so far, I've
lost 43 pounds, though as someone with an interest in the site, my own success
isn't really relevant.)

Anyhow, I like the actual foot _photo_, not just an integration. It might just
be personal preference. I use a withings scale, and weigh in daily, but then I
"capture" that with accountability by taking an actual photo of my actual
feet. It's a trivial task for a once-a-week thing, and it brings that integer
number into the real world.

As far as the "why not charity", people often ask that. Our feeling is that if
you want to donate to charity, great! Donate to charity! Don't entangle that
with your goals. Besides, then your interest and the charity's interest are at
odds. Consider donating your _winnings_ to charity, so your interests are
aligned! You can check out the FAQ on the site for more of our thoughts on
that.

~~~
ivankirigin
I wouldn't consider uploading a photo trivial yet.

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Revisor
14K for a design and 5K for the initial legal work seems pretty steep to me
for a completely new, unproven web. Surely it could have been done an order of
magnitude cheaper for similar quality, no?

Anyway I'm glad he shared the data.

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r38y
It could have been done for cheaper, especially legal. However, I don't think
the design would have been as good for cheaper. Keep in mind those were
"retail", I had some "friend discounts" I didn't want to make public.

Legal is tough, the weight loss industry can be kind of scary because people
can get hurt. It is especially scary if you are doing something "weird". Most
new websites or businesses will not need a custom TOS, PP, etc. They can tweak
one that already exists.

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lachyg
I definitely think the design could of been cheaper. You have to hire people
for their strengths and it seems these guys' strength is design. I would then
outsource the PSD2HTML to a company like P2H.com, or a freelance (who would
probably charge less!).

I imagine the design could of been done for half the price, if you spent a bit
of time looking on Dribbble or similar, and outsourced the code.

I've come from a background of having to find the cheapest person, but also
equally as high in quality, and you find some great places and tricks.

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atomical
I think this startup would be a great partner for the Biggest Loser TV show.
The show could provide the contestant with money and each week the contestant
would make money if he/she lost weight. You could incorporate the original
idea by forcing them to give some of the money back if they regain weight.

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turtle4
Considering the way you'll make money, I would get a good laugh if you added
some advertising to your site for fast food / ice cream places.

Kidding aside, this is an interesting post. I feel like I might have committed
less on the design side and then revisited it at some point, but I understand
where you're coming from too. Good luck!

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JangoSteve
This seems really cool and I'm always glad to see entrepreneurs making
progress. The only thing that seems kind of odd is that it's a service meant
to help you lose weight, yet it directly benefits if you don't lose weight.
Though, I'm sure that's what the tips are meant to offset.

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tikaro
Yup. We call the tips "happy" money, and the penalties "sad" money. We like
happy money! Plus: what's more valuable -- a site that skims a couple of bucks
off of failure, or a demonstrated and proven way for folks to achieve their
weight-loss goals? Hell, we'll write a book and get our faces on Oprah! :)

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smallegan
Two things I thought of....

1) Can I lie and say that I lost the weight in order to get my money back?

2) Is there anything out there that works with positive reinforcement for
weight loss? In other words, instead of punishing people (which may work for
some), reward people with prizes (money, gifts, etc..)

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r38y
1) You weigh in by taking a picture of your feet on the scale. Sure, you can
photoshop it or lean on a table (it's actually kind of hard to do that), but
in the end, if you cheat, all you do is get your money back, you don't make
money.

2) Pretty much everything out there is positive reinforcement. We try our best
to help you succeed, we would rather get a tip than keep your money because
you failed to make your goals. For years I would try to lose weight for a
couple of weeks and then my life would go back to normal. I wanted something
where my life would be WORSE if I failed so I made LIOLI.

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patana
I don't read the post, but from the comment I think that in order to lose
weight there is an easy solution:

Eat less and move more.

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r38y
Yup! That's right! That's why we don't tell our users HOW to lose weight, but
help them set reasonable weekly goals and "punish" them if they don't stick to
them.

I know how to lose weight, it's the sticking to it over a long period of time
and not procrastinating that is hard. I built this for myself, and it is
working great!

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patana
Punishing your clients is not a good way for they to lose weight. I propose
another solution, when they stick to their goals they should receive a reward
that's a better solution, try it and tell us about it. Don't downmod yourself.

