

The Bitcoin Swan Dive Was Utterly Predictable - ibsathish
http://techcrunch.com/2013/12/18/the-bitcoin-swan-dive-was-utterly-predictable/

======
enoch_r
If there's a 5% chance that BTC will become a major world currency, and a 95%
chance that it will fail miserably, and the equilibrium price of a BTC as a
major world currency is $40,000 and the equilibrium price of BTC as a
miserable failure is $0, then BTC is a good buy at $1000 _despite the fact
that the price will almost certainly decline precipitously._

Not that I necessarily believe in that particular scenario. But it's
worthwhile to remember things like this when reading smug blathering about
what's "obvious." Markets are complex. If the future price of something is
"obvious" to you, there'a a good chance you're not thinking hard enough, or at
all.

------
sjg007
This techcrunch article was utterly predictable.

