
Millennials to Small Cities: Ready or Not, Here We Come - SQL2219
http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2017/11/03/millennials-to-cities-ready-or-not-here-we-come
======
Nelkins
I think about this a lot, mostly about Rochester, NY (where I went to
college). It has world-class universities (and a renowned music
conservatory[1]!), great history, festivals, relatively low unemployment[2]
and the housing is dirt, dirt cheap[3].

The thing is, right now I make a pretty great salary in NYC and I don't know
that anything in Rochester could come close, even taking into account cost of
living. Even if everything is expensive here, and even if expenses might be
lower on a percentage basis in Rochester, I think I'm still able to save more
in absolute terms where I am now. Not sure about that though, would need to
run the numbers to confirm.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastman_School_of_Music](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastman_School_of_Music)

[2]
[https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.ny_rochester_msa.htm#eag_ny_roch...](https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.ny_rochester_msa.htm#eag_ny_rochester_msa.f.1)

[3]
[https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Rochester,-NY_rb/?from...](https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Rochester,-NY_rb/?fromHomePage=true&shouldFireSellPageImplicitClaimGA=false&fromHomePageTab=buy)

~~~
athenot
Affordable housing and good salaries are usually on the conflicting ends of
the same scale.

A place that has high-paying jobs will have residents out-bidding each other,
driving up the prices of the housing market. Conversely, super cheap housing
is usually an indicator that there really is no demand from affluent
residents.

As a counter-point to what I just said, more and more information-based jobs
can be done remotely in a very effective manner. This lets people enjoy these
small towns and their high salary. Two things could happen, though:

\- this could form communities with enough remote workers to start altering
the housing prices, and produce a similar effect to gentrification in that the
locals end up outpriced of their own town;

\- or this could encourage a better spread of higher-paid employees throughout
a lot of small towns, and end up not affecting those towns markets. And as a
bonus, this might even help relieve the housing pressure on the larger cities.

~~~
jimmaswell
I feel like if all work was suddenly remote, city residency would drop at
least 50% in a week. I hope remote eventually becomes the norm. There are
probably a lot more like me out there who even in their 20s only work in a
metro area solely out of necessity. I have a hard time imagining that all
these people I see on HN pining for city living and making suburbs out to be
worse than prison are more than a vocal minority.

~~~
namlem
I don't agree. Super dense cities like New York might fall out of favor, but
smaller cities will still be attractive. Being able to walk to wherever you
want to go is very nice. In the suburbs you have to drive 10 minutes to get
anywhere, which is quite annoying. Maybe that will change once self driving
cars become the norm though.

~~~
alexandercrohde
If you want to go to an actual grocery store and you live in a city you're
going to spend more than 10 minutes walking. Plus you won't even have access
to Walmart, Costco, etc.

~~~
saosebastiao
In the 6 apartments I’ve lived in in the 5 years I’ve lived in Seattle, I’ve
never had fewer than 3 grocery stores within a 10 minute walk.

~~~
alexandercrohde
Well I lived in SF and in NYC presently. Unless you count corner stores (and I
don't, because they are exorbinantly expensive) 10 minutes is better than
average for those two cities.

------
psadauskas
I did not ever expect to see my old hometown of 30k people on HN. Growing up
there in the 80s and 90s, it was a nice enough place, but basically 0 tech
jobs outside of doing basic IT or support. My parents still live there (my dad
an EE at the mentioned Cummins), but the fortunes of the town are tied to
Cummins' stock price. They've done a lot to revitalize the downtown in the
last decade, it used to be pretty run down. That said, its still in Indiana,
with hot muggy summers and wet cold winters where you don't see the sun for 4
months. People are generally friendly, as long as you're "normal". There's a
lot of casual racism and homophobia, I didn't even recognize it until I moved
away and had my eyes opened.

I moved to Indy to get a programming job in the early 2000s, and then to
Colorado a few years after that. I'm much happier with the climate, the
people, and the tech out here. However, the house I close on this month cost
3x what my parents' place is worth.

~~~
ctennis1
I think you'd be surprised. I moved to Columbus in the early 2000s after
college from another Indiana city. Perhaps I have blinders on, but I don't
ever recall any casual racism or homophobia. If anything I'd say it's a more
progressive city than many other small conservative midwestern towns. There is
considerable diversity in the city, given that many of the engineers who live
here have come from other countries. There was a recent presentation about the
problems of "conversion therapy", and the presbyterian church a few weeks ago
had a day of remembrance specifically for those who are transgender.

Not saying it's anything along the lines of Colorado, or the bay area, which
I've frequented the past decade - but I think 2017 Columbus IN is vastly
different than late 90s Columbus IN. The article really nails it.

~~~
psadauskas
Oh sure, Columbus is way more progressive than just about anywhere else in
southern Indiana, save Bloomington (home of Indiana University). But still, my
high school graduating class of 350 had one black kid and a couple Hispanics.
There were more Japanese than any other minority, and that was because Cummins
had hired their parents from the manufacturing powerhouses there.

Several of my friends had lived their entire lives in the area, the type of
family where both of their grandparents lived within 30 minutes, and they had
no will or desire to leave and explore the rest of the country. Most of them
grew up in racist and homophobic families, so making remarks and jokes was
commonplace. It didn't seem so at the time, but now having left I realize just
how rampant it was, and I'm actually a little ashamed to have taken part in
it.

------
blacksqr
It's funny how deeply they buried the lead in this article. The real story of
Columbus is: stable manufacturing jobs + corporate commitment to community =
good quality of life.

This story is so alien to us now in America that we don't even recognize it
when it's staring us in the face.

~~~
mlevental
[https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/bury_the_lede](https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/bury_the_lede)

------
Entangled
> “The 18- to 35-year-olds expect something like that, but they just didn’t
> have it,” said Tyler Hodge, 32, who used crowdfunding to help finance the
> shop. The same tactic was used for a rock climbing gym opened in September
> by a group of young engineers who, like Hodge, spend their weekdays working
> at Cummins Inc., the diesel engine company that is the city’s largest
> employer.

Crowdfunding for brick-and-mortar? Now that's interesting, any links?

~~~
rev_bird
A brewpub in Minneapolis crowdfunded about $250k, though the actual financial
arrangement seems a little funky, as you'd imagine:
[http://www.startribune.com/beer-for-life-brewpub-for-
all/171...](http://www.startribune.com/beer-for-life-brewpub-for-
all/171627341/)

If you invested $1,000, you got free beer for life.

------
froindt
Surprised to see Cedar Rapids, IA on the list. I grew up in the area and it
was not very appealing to stay in the area. Growing up, everybody's parents
worked at Rockwell Collins, and not many of my peers had intentions of staying
in the area. Few did.

In the last few years I have noticed changes around the city. Some big
investments downtown, new developments for commercial and shopping space, etc.

I doubt Cedar Rapids would have been on the list if it it wasn't for the 2008
flood. Nothing could get done at a city level because people were always
against it for some reason or another. It was a kick in the pants city wide to
get stuff done.

Rockwell, the largest employer in the city, has always had a tough time
recruiting. Perhaps it will be easier for them to get young talent in the
coming years?

~~~
FLUX-YOU
>In the last few years I have noticed changes around the city. Some big
investments downtown, new developments for commercial and shopping space, etc.

I guess investors have the big cities' real estate markets locked down. Now
they're trying the same gentrification game in small towns to get rents
raised?

~~~
wbl
The people who raise rents ard the ones who limit the supply of housing.

------
cableshaft
A little surprised to see my hometown, Bloomington, IL on the list. There's
two universities in town, so I know they bring in a lot of young people, but
unless you want to open a restaurant or work at State Farm your whole life,
there doesn't seem to be a whole ton of opportunities there, especially now
that the Mitsubishi plant closed down.

It is still a very affordable place to live, that part is certainly true.

~~~
mikepurvis
Isn't the point that the "here we come" millenials are bringing their own
startups with them, or working remotely? So you can live in a boring,
inexpensive college town somewhere, but still have exciting, well-paid work.

~~~
cableshaft
Well sure. I do have a friend who's trying to get a 3D print studio startup
going that lives in the area, even. But there's not a huge market there for
new businesses outside of restaurants (seriously, it's a test market for new
restaurants and it has one of the highest amount of restaurants per capita in
the US), as far as I can tell at least.

If you work completely remotely that's fine, but at least the article was
saying more that millennial were moving to these places because the existing
demand for workers was there, especially knowledge workers, and that's just
not really true here unless you want to work at the headquarters for a giant
insurance company.

The scope of the article is generally true, I was just surprised to see my
hometown included, is all. If you're just looking for cheap places to live and
work completely remotely, there are tons of other towns nearby that are much
cheaper. Hell, just go 20 miles outside of Bloomington and you can get a house
at about half the price that you would in Bloomington, in much smaller towns.
I have old high school buddies that do exactly that.

~~~
KGIII
Do you have any more info on the restaurants per capita? Google isn't very
helpful.

I ask only out of mild interest. The village closest to me has ~30 and just
1200 residents. However, it's a tourist town and there are zero franchise fast
food places, or the likes.

Wait, mostly disregard this. I was looking for the wrong town and now have a
bunch of information.

~~~
cableshaft
I don't have hard data, it's just something that's known about the city. With
a google search I can find some people mentioning it online, but not with any
hard data.

------
Apocryphon
I'm wondering where's the equivalent for California. Sacramento is too
significant and big a city to be comparable. I'm thinking Bakersfield and Elk
Grove.

[http://kedc.com/kern-county-fast-becoming-a-mecca-for-
millen...](http://kedc.com/kern-county-fast-becoming-a-mecca-for-millennials/)

[https://www.marketwatch.com/story/4-cities-where-
millennials...](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/4-cities-where-millennials-
actually-act-like-grown-ups-2017-01-10)

~~~
Mz
I don't think there really is an equivalent in California. I searched for a
small town with affordable housing and some minimal level of infrastructure. I
found what I needed in another state.

I work remotely, so my income is portable. I could potentially go anywhere in
the US. I couldn't find anything in California that met my needs.

------
sverige
My town is on the list and still incredibly affordable. I guess it's time to
buy up some properties so I can gouge these youngsters later. Not a bad
retirement plan, actually. It will be nice to be on the other end of the
transaction for the first time in my life.

~~~
humanrebar
Don't feel too guilty. Most of these small towns are in areas where people can
move outside of town a bit if they don't care to be gouged. With minimal
impact on commute times.

Though amenities like affordable high speed internet drop off pretty
precipitously if you get too far out.

~~~
Johnny555
_With minimal impact on commute times_

That works up to a point, but eventually as more people move out of downtown
to less expensive suburbs, roads start to clog and the community can't afford
the billions of dollars it would take to build more freeways or public
transit.

~~~
humanrebar
In small towns businesses are also often smaller and it's easier to get the
boss or owner to OK a work schedule that avoids rush hour traffic.

~~~
vanilla_nut
[citation needed]

------
matt_wulfeck
This article is 5 or 7 years too late. We already moved to cities. Now we want
to be married and do things that require yards. Or at least own a small piece
of the city and no longer be at the mercy of landlords (non-rent controlled
renters).

Most importantly, I’ve learned the joy and importance being near my family and
spending time with them. These are all things I never cared about in my 20s.

~~~
josephpmay
Did you read the article? Pretty sure the vast majority of people living in
Columbus, IN are in single-family homes.

------
eric_b
The financial crisis delayed the usual process of marriage, having children,
and house buying for millenials. Instead of doing it in their mid/late 20's,
they held off until late 20's/early 30s.

Everyone likes to be young and in the city. It's fun. You can go out and have
unlimited options for things to do, places to eat, etc.

The exorbitant rent charges for luxury apartments is something that becomes
unpalatable once you get sick of living with roommates, or want to have a
family. As people get older they generally go out less and appreciate nature,
personal space, and quiet more. (Obviously a generalization but in aggregate
is true)

It's also easier than ever to take an Uber in to the city, should you wish, to
avoid parking and drinking and driving.

------
novaRom
Move abroad. That's simple. Lots of places with much better quality of life.
European Union is terrific place: multiple nations, different climates,
various cultures, freedom of speech, parlamentary democracy, clean ecology,
safety, good education, inexpensive housing.

~~~
mavhc
Won't you have to pay taxes twice if you're from USA though?

~~~
gumby
No, you deduct the taxes paid in your place of residence from what you pay in
the US. Since taxes are lower in the US than in most developed countries you
end up owing the US nothing -- but you still have to file.

Of course, though your taxes may be higher, other expenses may be lower (e.g.
telecoms, health care, housing) so you'll probably end up with more in your
pocket.

~~~
jdhn
This is correct, up to a point. Once you pass the threshold of around $90k,
you can no longer write the income tax you pay on your foreign income off. For
example, if you make the equivalent of $100k in Europe, you can write off the
income tax on the first $90k. However, you then have to pay US income tax on
that remaining $10k.

------
nfriedly
My wife and I spent some time in the Bay Area in our twenties. It was nice and
I'm glad we did it, but I am _so happy_ that we moved back to a small town in
Ohio before beginning to raise a family. SF is a nice place to visit, but Ohio
is home.

It definitely helps that programming can be done remotely, but I think I'd
still prefer it here, even if it meant working for a local shop at half my
current salary.

------
don_draper
Real estate is one of the biggest intergenerational scams ever. Be smart and
just buy a cheaper house and then work less. pretty simple

~~~
aantix
"ever"? We live in an affluent neighborhood surrounded by Doctors and CPAs.
Our kids see that every day. That's their normal.

And if/when there are major budget changes to the district, who do you think
are the first parents in line advocating for their school?

You literally buy your kids a chance at a better future.

~~~
sitkack
School funds should be distributed equally across the entire population. If we
were a democracy, rich neighborhoods wouldn't have better schools.

~~~
selectodude
The wealthiest school districts in the country tend to be the worst.

~~~
s0rce
Definitely not the case in the Bay Area -- Palo Alto, Piedmont, Orinda are
wealthy and have some of the best schools.

~~~
selectodude
Not wealthy residents. Wealthy school districts. LAUSD spends substantially
more than Palo Alto per student.

------
sscarduzio
Just open your own business (products or freelance) and move to Mexico to work
remotely for US customers. Super cheap, better food, tropical climate. 90% of
HN readers would be smart enough to do this and sustain themselves
beautifully.

~~~
aaron-lebo
Is that the same Mexico with 100k+ killed in the drug war since 2005? Maybe
it's an unreasonable fear, but conducting business and sticking out as a
foreigner seem like a risk.

~~~
sscarduzio
I’m saying to conduct a 100% online us/eu based business. You get 6 months
visa for Mexico anyway.

Get yourself an American style condo in Cancún and that’s it. Mexico is not
all uniformly violent, unlike US.

~~~
JBlue42
The violence seems avoidable but is bad Internet? I've heard its not so great
down there.

~~~
always_good
No worse than the pitiful connections I had over the course of 7 years in
Austin. American internet is not a high bar.

------
FiveSquared
What about Sacramento? The city is seeing more and more people moving to it,
due to the warm climate and the location close to the Bay.

~~~
junkscience2017
Sacramento has all of the disadvantages of living in California (high taxes,
regulation, etc) but none of the advantages (great weather, scenery, awesome
job market).

You mention the weather... Sacramento's is awful. The heat is unbearable.

You might as well just keep on 80 until you hit Reno.

~~~
jdhn
>You might as well just keep on 80 until you hit Reno.

There's quite a few people who have done just that. I feel like every 3rd
person in Reno is a California expat.

------
kwoff
I wouldn't have expected North Dakota, West Virginia, Idaho, or South Dakota..

“At The Pew Charitable Trusts, return on investment is not measured in profits
but in long-lasting, positive, powerful change.”

Is this one of those "philanthropic" tax dodges that very wealthy people put
their money in?

------
5ourpuss
I'm from the Midwest, from the Cedar Rapids area, moved to Chicago, and I have
to say I would NEVER EVER move back there.

People from these areas are extremely conservative and xenophobic.

The restaurants and any business you might frequent are of lower quality.

These cities are not world class cities. Claiming that they are is just
ignorant. You end up trapped in a little bubble with nowhere to escape to,
surrounded by boring white people.

There is NOTHING TO DO.

What if you want to go out on Friday night and see a rock show? Or get a
decent dinner? I hope you like commuting to Chicago...

You will be surrounded by insurance salesmen with none of the diversity and
vibrancy a larger city offer.

That is to say: These places have no culture. No diversity. They have nothing
going on, nobody creating anything, no one performing anything. Just going
about their little lives selling insurance.

Additionally: Their nature sucks. I hope you're fine with never hiking through
any interesting terrain, going skiing, or rock climbing, or really doing any
interesting outdoor activities. ( I guess hunting is popular? )

Also.. where are you going to work? I'm a software developer: Where am I going
to work in Cedar Rapids, IA? Some insurance firm doing meaningless banking
bullshit?

"But I moved there for my kids!"

What if your kid wants to start a rock band, or be a painter, or do anything
creative or interesting? Or, what if they are extremely intelligent and want
to progress through a decent, competitive school system?

I can answer this one from personal experience: They will be completely alone
surrounded by mediocre, extremely homogeneous racially and otherwise, people
with no community of peers driving each other forward.

There will be no friday-night rock shows, no musical culture in general, no
museums or after-school clubs or protests to attend. Nowhere to go. Nothing to
do. Nowhere to explore.

So, after all I've said: What's left to inspire you, or your kids, in these
mediocre little cities?

So I guess if you're willing to do nothing and be nowhere and be nothing,
wasting your days watching television, moving to a smaller city is a great
bet. Personally, I'd rather live in a decent city than slouch though a
mediocre one.

~~~
shostack
Oddly enough, I lived in Chicago most of my life and moved up the Bay Area.
I'd be hard pressed to ever move back despite the network of family and
friends there.

The weather is beyond awful. The crime rate is through the roof. Rents and
house prices have gone through the roof, while comp has not. The city is broke
and horribly corrupt.

Don't get me wrong... There's a lot of amazing things about Chicago and it
will always have a place in my heart. And the food is indeed good (if leaning
towards the super unhealthy and indulgent side). But I'd be hard-pressed to
ever move back from my overpriced starter home in the Bay.

~~~
5ourpuss
I agree with you, Chicago is brutal. I'm actually moving out west in a few
months for the exact reasons you listed! But, as I said, I grew up in the
rural midwest. I would caution people against considering it a cheap-land
utopia.

Also, I would not equate moving to a small city in the midwest to moving to a
small city in the Bay Area. You have at least a proximity to larger cities,
and there is beautiful nature and weather to enjoy, along with better culture
in general.

