
Have we arrived in the post-Windows era? - jamesjyu
http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=16590
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andr
Yes, Windows has been commoditized, but Microsoft is not really suffering from
it. Even though most users don't care about the OS, they still need one. In
most cases, they go with Windows.

You can even say Microsoft won the battle by having everyone else compete on
the web and leave Windows alone. Think about it - Microsoft gets $100+ in
licensing fees from every PC user every 3-5 years. Add another $100 for that
user's PC at work. How many web businesses can make the same statement?

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SamAtt
The only thing that makes me think we aren't entering the post-Windows era is
that Office is still a cash cow for Microsoft. Because the situation Microsoft
is in now with Windows greatly resembles the one they were in with Office '97.
People kept buying new versions because no one else offered anything all that
different and it was preloaded

It comes down to the next great thing. Linux, OpenOffice, Google Apps and Zoho
are all trying to be just like Microsoft in their look and feel. But the only
thing that will draw people from Microsoft is the next evolution of the
desktop. Microsoft clearly can't provide it.

When I see that. Something that makes it worth the effort for people to ditch
Windows I'll know we're in the post-Windows era.

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anigbrowl
A foolish article - why the graphic about browser wars, when the real
comparison is between Office Enterprise and things like Google Docs (who will
surely be competing against Oracle + Sun now)?

Yes, the OS is less relevant now as many users don't _need_ more computing
power than a netbook + SAS can provide, but it still matters. High-powered
consoles won't kill PC games, I doubt I'll be editing HD video over the net
any time soon (although I wouldn't object), and no large corporation or medium
is going to outsource its operations to some third-party provider of cloud
services.

Just because something is commoditized doesn't make it irrelevant. Cars are
functionally identical for 90% of drivers but people still have preferences
there.

~~~
stcredzero
What about editing HD video on a high-powered game console? I should think
that there would be a _huge_ market for that!

~~~
anigbrowl
That would be interesting, for sure. I like some of the design tools found in
ps3 games - and yet again, I wonder why game consoles aren't made more
expandable. I'm sure it would transcode video faster than my PC, though I've
been disappointed at the scanty amount of code produced for Linux on PS3. I
thought there'd be a much more robust hobby scene around it by now, but Sony's
decision to wall off the GPU alienated a lot of people.

~~~
stcredzero
Sony could sell a ton of video editing software as a download. Maybe this is
why they walled it off.

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gamble
The importance of upgrades has always been overblown by a tech media written
by the kind of people who pay attention to new OS releases. For most people,
the OS isn't a product separate from the computer.

What's changed is the PC market reached saturation shortly after XP dropped in
2001. Older versions of Windows weren't upgraded voluntarily so much as swept
along with the exponential growth of the overall market. If Microsoft didn't
drop support and licensing of new copies to force upgrades, plenty of
companies would be happy to stick with XP for years to come.

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dflock
Hopefully we are moving back into an era of increased competition in the OS
market; that would be a good thing to see. personally I'm rooting for Plan9 :)

Having you product commoditized isn't so bad, provided that you've got high
volumes. Getting people to upgrade existing XP and Office installs is going to
be Microsofts biggest challenge, in a saturated market where sagging hardware
sales are no longer pushing new Windows licenses. Hence ever more aggressive
Windows Genuine Advantage stuff, I guess.

I don't know about you, but when people talk to me about upgrading their
'slow' old pc's now, I usually talk them into putting Linux on it. They are
generally astounded at the speed improvement over their mushy old, virus
addled, Windows install. No complaints from anyone yet.

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gojomo
With apologies to William Gibson: The post-Windows era is here, it's just not
evenly distributed yet.

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jf
Yes.

