
Fragments of a wing washed up on Reunion could be wreckage from MH370 - curtis
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/11771229/MH370-wreckage-found-on-Reunion-matches-Malaysia-Airlines-flight.html
======
goodcanadian
Well, the ocean currents in the Indian Ocean seem broadly consistent with the
idea that wreckage could have drifted from the presumed crash site to Reunion:

[https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d5/Indian_O...](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d5/Indian_Ocean_Gyre.png)

~~~
curtis
It only now occurs to me that somebody should have purchased thousands of
rubber ducks[1], then traversed the 7th arc[2], tossing one* overboard every
mile or so.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendly_Floatees](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendly_Floatees)

[2]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analysis_of_Malaysia_Airlines_...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analysis_of_Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370_satellite_communications)

* Appropriately labeled with GPS coordinates of release, of course.

~~~
b_emery
Here's a pdf of a poster where someone did basically that, using computer
simulations of course. Their figure 5 shows debris zones [edit: actually
garbage patches] that are pretty close to Reunion

[http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Charitha_Pattiaratchi/pu...](http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Charitha_Pattiaratchi/publication/267631086_Particle_%28%27debris%27%29_tracking_at_possible_crash_sites_of_MH370/links/5454de2c0cf2bccc490cc541.pdf)

I'll update if I can find the other refs.

Update: To do this correctly, you'd need winds, and the approx windage of the
object. Coast Guard search and rescue simulations take this into account. Wind
can push objects on top of the ocean currents.

~~~
curtis
That's a good point about the windage. I'm skeptical that you can really
conclude much about the original impact site from a single piece of debris
anyway. On the other hand just being able to narrow the origin down to even
one half of the arc might be beneficial at this point.

------
3JPLW
I was surprised there wasn't a map! I'm not familiar with the current patterns
of the Indian ocean, but Reunion seems like a strange place for MH370 wreckage
to end up given the projected paths from the pings. In this map, Reunion is
just barely visible as the leftmost tiny white dot between the words "Indian
Ocean" and Madagascar.

[http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/532abdcaeab8ea0464d...](http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/532abdcaeab8ea0464d7c735-1200-/probability_map.jpg)

~~~
mikeash
It's had over a year to drift around from wherever the crash occurred.

~~~
3JPLW
Yup, I was going by the prevailing winds and current arrow on the linked
image. But if you superimpose the actual Indian ocean currents (as linked to
by goodcanadian)[0], it does make quite a bit of sense.

0\.
[https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d5/Indian_O...](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d5/Indian_Ocean_Gyre.png)

~~~
Klinky
I combined the images and marked Reunion on the map if anyone is interested.
Not a cartographer, so might be slightly off.

[http://i.imgur.com/o9qhMyo.png](http://i.imgur.com/o9qhMyo.png)

~~~
b_emery
Here's a really cool site that simulates the drift of plastics in the ocean:
[http://adrift.org.au](http://adrift.org.au)

When I pick points in the eastern indian ocean, they all end up hitting
africa!

------
melling
No one has confirmed a match. The article doesn't even confirm it.

~~~
smegel
[https://twitter.com/jonostrower](https://twitter.com/jonostrower)

~~~
melling
Did you read them? He says he can't confirm it either.

[https://mobile.twitter.com/jonostrower/status/62654627786247...](https://mobile.twitter.com/jonostrower/status/626546277862477825)

~~~
smegel
At the time I wrote that comment, his most recent tweet was "Okay, now where's
the rest of this Boeing 777?". Engineers have confirmed it is a 777 part...the
only confirmation now is a serial number match. And from his most recent
tweet, I can only gather the only way this _isn 't_ MH370 is if a 777 flaperon
was parted out to another kind of aircraft? Just haven't been that many 777
lost of the years.

~~~
rtkwe
That's not a confirmation that it's from MH370. It's always been highly likely
that it was part of MH370 if it was a 777 part but high likelihood !=
confirmation.

------
nicolewhite
> He said that there was much discussion over a code part of the wreckage:
> BB670. "The code is not that of a plane number plate, nor that or a serial
> number on machinery," he wrote.

Interesting. You'd think a code like that on a plane part would be immediately
identified.

------
AnimalMuppet
The headline of the article is exactly what the HN title says. But the sub-
headline says "Fragments of a wing washed up in the French island of Reunion
_could be_ wreckage from Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, says aviation expert"
(emphasis added).

The "matches" in the headline is only that it came from the same model (Boeing
777) as MH370 - not from the actual plane.

~~~
dingaling
> The "matches" in the headline is only that it came from the same model
> (Boeing 777) as MH370 - not from the actual plane.

There have only been three 777 crashes [0], and the other two were firmly on
land.

Well, the Asiana one at San Francisco clipped a _sea_ wall but the flaps
arrived on land. So unless someone has been throwing major 777 wing components
into the sea, this is a pretty compelling match.

* [0] Plus two other hull losses whilst static at airports _

~~~
enos
The BA crash in London was also on dry land.

------
swasheck
at least one poster on this jetphotos
([http://forums.jetphotos.net/showthread.php?t=55779&page=94](http://forums.jetphotos.net/showthread.php?t=55779&page=94))
aviation safety forum thread is skeptical that it's from a 777.

~~~
tyingq
This forum thread is worth watching as well. Mostly pilots on the forum:

[http://www.airliners.net/aviation-
forums/general_aviation/re...](http://www.airliners.net/aviation-
forums/general_aviation/read.main/6462442/)

~~~
mafribe
While there are some professional pilots on airliners.net, that forum is also
frequented by many ... how can I put this politely ... armchair pilots. Best
to take the discussion with a grain of salt.

In general, airline parts come with serial numbers and other means of
identification. It's best to wait a day or two until the origin of the part is
ascertained.

~~~
saryant
Yeah, there's a reason they're called a.nutters.

------
BuildTheRobots
Link to origional blog + images: [http://blog-peuravion.fr/2015/07/a-t-on-
retrouve-les-premier...](http://blog-peuravion.fr/2015/07/a-t-on-retrouve-les-
premiers-debris-du-mh370/#more-1453)

I'm being thick, but could someone show me where the code "BB-670" is actually
located? I'm amazed there isn't a closeup photo of it.

~~~
tostaki
Imgur mirror:
[https://i.imgur.com/DlRPT9j.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/DlRPT9j.jpg)

~~~
BuildTheRobots
Sorry, I obviously wasn't being clear enough. Having looked at that page a
couple of times now, which one of those photos shows where this code is
printed on the plane fragment?

------
Aloha
I think BB670 is a boeing part number -
[http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/aero_20/config...](http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/aero_20/configuration.pdf)
\- see indicated page 17 - BB670 would fit right wing major component.

~~~
Aloha
[http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/30/mh370-aircraft-...](http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/30/mh370-aircraft-
debris-in-la-reunion-almost-certainly-from-a-boeing-777) Looks like I got it
right - even if no one else noticed, this makes me feel pretty good!

------
LukaAl
If it is confirmed is part of MH370, could be a news for investigations (good
or bad depend on many factors). But, please, don't think this will stop
conspiracy theory. Why? This is my answer as a conspiracy theorist.

"But I landed the plane on island X, How much it would take me disassemble a
piece from the aircraft, hammer it a little bit to simulate an impact, and
drop it in the ocean in a place where will be probably washed ashore?"

That's one of the possible answer. Than it could be: "It isn't damaged enough
to be in the water for 1 year, they just soaked it and placed on the shore to
be found".

I don't believe in the conspiracy theory, but please, don't think this news
will debunk them (actually, it is highly improbable an object traveled so many
miles, it has been set up :-) )

~~~
jeroen
Let's just hope this will lead to closure for the families. And if we're
really lucky the cause will be found and improvements will be made that
prevent this from happening again.

------
devnonymous
According to the only comment (currently) on the original blog post, the code
part is not that of a boeing 777: [http://blog-peuravion.fr/2015/07/a-t-on-
retrouve-les-premier...](http://blog-peuravion.fr/2015/07/a-t-on-retrouve-les-
premiers-debris-du-mh370/#more-1453)

~~~
vonmoltke
First, that wing section cannot possibly be from a King Air 200.

Second, the referenced King Air 200 is currently on the tarmac in Las Vegas:
[https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N17VA](https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N17VA)

That number is a coincidence.

------
r721
The Associated Press: "US official: Debris in photo belongs to same type of
aircraft as the missing Malaysia plane"

[https://twitter.com/AP/status/626505570024079361](https://twitter.com/AP/status/626505570024079361)

------
tyingq
AP now seems to be pretty confident about it being from a 777.

"The official says investigators — including a Boeing air safety investigator
— have identified the component as a "flaperon" from the trailing edge of a
777 wing."

You can compare to a known 777 flaperon here:

New flaperon:
[http://www.airliners.net/profile/txspotter](http://www.airliners.net/profile/txspotter)
(scroll to bottom to see images) Found flaperon:
[http://imgur.com/a/8cQbm](http://imgur.com/a/8cQbm)

Keep in mind that trailing edge on the found flaperon appears to be
missing...ragged edges. Also, perspective isn't the same across the photos.

------
hermanmerman
It must be so hard to be one of the friends or family of someone who was in
MH370. Every now and then you get a new hope that you could get closure, but
until now it's just been speculations... Let's hope this one is different.

~~~
throwaway64908
The families are not hoping for closure - they're hoping their relatives are
still alive.

Regions new to passenger aviation cannot fathom that hundreds of people just
cease to exist in an air accident.

~~~
Gigablah
What do you mean "regions new to passenger aviation"? Both Malaysia and China
have domestic air flights operating way before the 1950s.

------
kctess5
If this is match, what might the implications be?

~~~
untog
For one, that it wasn't hijacked and taken to a secret location or whatever
the insane conspiracy theory was...

~~~
uptown
Don't you realize the people that believed that theory won't accept this wing
as authentic if it's found to be from the plane?

~~~
Steko
It really doesn't matter if they believe it. It will be convincing enough that
the rest of the world no longer needs to pay them any heed.

------
jaytaylor
The thing I can never get past with the Malaysia 370 incident was the super
weird flight path the plane took - like it was _trying_ to evade tracking
systems.

What a tradgedy.

~~~
Steko
I think this is just BS rationalizing by talking heads because evil suicide
muslim pilot makes for good tv ratings.

The path the plane took is known because of tracking systems it was supposedly
avoiding.

It flew right over one of the largest/busiest airports in Malaysia. If you
were trying to avoid radar would you have done that?

Would you have flown into Indonesian airspace or gone farther out before
turning south?

If you wanted to crash the airplane wouldn't you just crash the airplane?

The entire suicide pilot theory [1] has unfortunately jumped the rails and
become largely unfalsifiable and indistinguishable from CT, whatever the plane
is observed to do is instantly ascribed to the suicide pilots master plan
which there is zero real evidence for. Can't find the plane? All part of his
master plan.

[1] which is a perfectly good theory and one of the two most likely scenarios.

------
jcborro
Does it float?

