

Disruptive technologies: The parable of the telegraph - happybuy
http://www.asymco.com/2010/09/16/the-parable-of-the-telegraph/

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rsbrown
Though the concept of market validation (i.e., go ask prospective customers if
they will buy it before you build it) is often a good strategy, this article
does illustrate why it's important to be asking the right questions.

However, maybe the lesson is: with truly disruptive technologies it's
impossible to predict how the market will receive them.

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happybuy
Exactly, you have to make sure you ask the correct questions.

For instance, before the iPhone was revealed if you had asked prospective
smartphone customers if a hardware keyboard was a mandatory requirement you'd
probably get close to 100% agreement. However most customers do not think
through the whole design enough to realise what sort of trade-off that would
introduce (e.g. smaller screen to accommodate keyboard or less structural
integrity due to the need for a slider mechanism etc).

Once the iPhone has been used for a period of time by a user however, I'd
guess that less than 5% of users would say a hardware keyboard is a mandatory
requirement.

Therefore in such a case you probably asked the wrong question and need to
realise when you shouldn't listen to customers answers.

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iuyhgtfvgbhjn
Similar quote attributed to Henry Ford - "if I asked my customers what they
wanted, they would have said a faster horse"

