
Jaguar and Audi SUVs Fail to Dent Tesla’s Electric-Car Dominance - hhs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-19/jaguar-and-audi-suvs-fail-to-dent-tesla-s-electric-car-dominance
======
threeseed
Terrible article:

1) It's only about the US.

2) Tesla's big seller is the Model 3 which isn't a competitor for the Audi
e-tron and I-Pace. And given the size difference probably isn't a competitor
for the Model X either.

3) No one is claiming to be a Tesla killer since no one really has direct 3,
X, S, Y competitors. The existing car companies are all off doing their own
thing e.g. VW ID.3 (hatchback), Hyundai Kona (mini-SUV), Renault Zoe / Chevy
Bolt / Nissan Leaf / BMW i3 (small-car) etc.

~~~
pmorici
When Tesla's competitors stop designing and electric car and start designing a
really great car that just happens to be electric then Tesla will have
competition. Until then all the supposed Tesla competitors will be a joke.

For example it was recently reported that the Jaguar I-pace requires that you
drive 17 MPH with the climate control off to achieve the manufacture specified
range per charge. [0] They have 6 months worth of unsold inventory sitting on
dealer lots in the US.

Tesla's strength is in getting market share from buyers who first and foremost
want a great car. Everyone else is targeting suckers willing to make decisions
contrary to their economic interest to show they care about the environment.

[0] [https://cleantechnica.com/2019/08/13/jaguar-i-pace-sales-
hav...](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/08/13/jaguar-i-pace-sales-have-crashed-
dealer-inventory-exceeds-6-month-supply/)

~~~
LeonM
> When Tesla's competitors stop designing and electric car and start designing
> a really great car that just happens to be electric then Tesla will have
> competition. Until then all the supposed Tesla competitors will be a joke.

This.

I never understood why car manufacturers all make such weird wacky electric
cars. When the Model S came out it was such a relief that finally there was a
_normal_ looking electric car.

What I want is an electric 5-series, not the wacky i3. Don't change the
appearance, just the drive train.

~~~
kylecordes
Tesla is trying to make cars to compete with other makers’ non-electric cars.

Other makers are trying to make cars to compete with Tesla, without competing
with their own non-electric cars.

Currently, it is probably impossible to achieve a good profit margin on a
mass-market electric car. Battery costs are too high this early in the
manufacturing process. Tesla is willing to operate at the bare edge of fiscal
viability while they scale… maybe even below viability. Other makers would
have to take a gigantic drop in profit to compete with that.

~~~
solarkraft
Model 3 is estimated to be "solidly profitable":
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17542864](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17542864)

Tesla operates at no profit, but not because they couldn't with the hardware,
but rather because they still need to scale. The old manufacturers wouldn't
even need to do much of that.

------
kenhwang
That's an interesting interpretation of the data. To me, it looks like Model
S/X sales have noticeably dropped since the introduction of the Jaguar and
Audi.

I don't think there will be a singular Tesla killer, but rather, Tesla is
increasingly going to be attacked by all sides: Hyundai/Nissan/GM on the mass
market side, Jaguar/Audi/Mercedes/BMW on the luxury side, and Porsche on the
ultra luxury high end. The Model 3/Y is currently positioned in the premium
segment between mass market and luxury. That's sorta Honda/Toyota territory; I
think they'll need to bring out EVs for Tesla to be in serious trouble.

~~~
nimbius
Another aspect is repair. Speaking as someone who works full time as an engine
mechanic, sourcing parts or even being allowed to do repair work for a Tesla
is a tedious process. Everything comes from one factory with no distribution
network, so a door panel repair can take months to fix . In contrast, I can
get nearly any part for an Audi delivered to the shop in 2 days and the
digital books for service interval and installation are all at my fingertips.

~~~
alexkiritz
That's an issue Tesla has, but I don't think that would at all explain a drop
in Model 3 sales.

~~~
icelancer
I think it has some impact. People who would buy a Tesla are clued into doing
online research, and see the news about their repair problems.

I personally would have already leased/bought a Model 3 if I didn't have
serious concerns about their supply chain and repair issues brought to light
by people like Rich Rebuilds and others. I am waiting it out to see if it
improves, or if Tesla goes bankrupt/forced merged and their IP lives on
elsewhere.

------
MarkSweep
According to the article, they have less range than a Tesla Model 3 and cost
substantially more. That seems like a hard thing to sell.

~~~
threeseed
They aren't competitors for the Model 3 but rather a Model Y.

And not sure why people are so obsessed with range. It's the
megapixels/megahertz spec nonsense again. People don't buy ICE cars based
purely on MPG but also for exterior/interior design, quality, comfort, brand,
support, seating capacity etc and most importantly what the car says about you
as a person.

~~~
onion2k
People buy ICE cars knowing the petrol delivery infrastructure means they'll
never run out of gas on a long trip. People are wary of short range electric
vehicles because they might not find a charger in time, or the chargers they
do find might be in use, and then they'll be stranded.

~~~
gibolt
Range anxiety is definitely a thing, especially if you've never driven an EV
and have heard it exists. The issue is a non-issue for most Tesla buyers who
have home charging.

The situation will hopefully resolve itself unquestionably in the next 2-3
years.

~~~
rlpb
As a potential EV buyer, what concerns me is that a quoted 200 mile range
sounds more like a 100 mile range after five years (so an older battery) in
winter (when I'll want heating). That would limit me to driving only 50 miles
from my home without having to alter my plans around charging, and I would
want to add some contingency so perhaps that'd end up being 30 miles in
practice.

Feel free to tell me that I'm being overly pessimistic, but that's how our
consumer-hostile marketing culture (in general and not specifically the EV
industry) has taught me to be. Rapid battery degradation in typical consumer
devices also influences my impression.

Perhaps regularly replacing/refurbishing batteries would help with this. How
would this affect the TCO when compared to a gasoline car? I don't know.
What's the resale value of an old EV likely to be given the rapid development
in the newest models, and how will that affect the TCO? Again, I don't know.

~~~
magicalhippo
My BMW i3 has an 8 year 80% battery warranty. Tesla does very well with their
battery management. Leaf is not so great, but far from 50% at 5 years unless
you mistreat it AFAIK.

Yes, winter will reduce range. I had a worst-case trip this year, it was
around -18 C outside and I had not had a chance to pre-heat the batteries. Car
was 99% charged, showing 200 km range initially. After some 135 km the car
showed about 10 km range left, when I finally got to a charger. This was with
two passengers, both front seat heaters on, as well as the cabin heater
working hard.

If we assume the estimated range left is somewhat accurate, that's about 63%
the typical summer range of about 230 km. Had I preheated the batteries it
would have been better, though I don't have any numbers.

Resale value is something I worry about too. That's part of the reason I went
with an i3 rather than a more expensive Model 3. Though at least here in
Norway, I expect EVs to be dominating soon, and with the price of gas I expect
ICE resale value will take a hit.

~~~
rlpb
Thank you for writing that up. It is useful to consider a real-world scenario
from an existing EV owner that has some real data.

> Leaf is not so great, but far from 50% at 5 years unless you mistreat it
> AFAIK.

I got to 50% by combining reduced range from an old battery with reduced range
from winter use.

> about 63%

So 80% (your battery warranty minimum) of 63% is 50.4%, so was my 50% guess
spot on then, or have I missed something?

~~~
magicalhippo
> so was my 50% guess spot on then

Yeah I misread your text slightly.

------
mothsonasloth
Ex Jaguar employee here:

The I-Pace is a great car however they can't produce enough of them for demand
(the waiting list was around 8 months when I left and was growing). The
tooling in most of the factories is still configured for ICE and they are now
repurposing some of the car factories in the midlands to be dedicated to
electric vehicles.

EVs are still luxury market focussed, even with my salary I couldn't afford an
E-Golf, unless I leased it.

~~~
skellington
Uh no, there is at least a six month supply of i-paces at US dealers now
because nobody is buying them. The i-pace is actually quite nice, but terrible
efficiency and no charger network makes it a tough sell.

~~~
BrentOzar
> they can't produce enough of them for demand (the waiting list was around 8
> months when I left and was growing)

> there is at least a six month supply of i-paces at US dealers now

Both of those could have been true at different times: dealers ordered large
allocations of them thinking they'd dent Tesla's market, then the ex-Jaguar
employee left, and as the i-Paces arrived, they simply didn't sell. That
sounds logical with my own experiences with those - the early reviews sounded
like Jag had really nailed it, but when I saw my first i-Pace in person, man,
no way was I gonna buy one. It's just flat out not attractive, which is a
shocker for Jag.

~~~
mikestew
It happened to Nissan with the first-gen Leafs. Couldn’t make them fast
enough, until the early adopters ran out and Leafs started to pile up on
dealer lots.

------
King-Aaron
I wish consumers would take a liking to station wagons again.

SUV's are terrible.

~~~
gexla
I don't know if "looks cool" is the same thing as status (probably not) but
station wagons in the US have a history of being the ugliest thing on the
road. Maybe the only competitor for worst on the list of cool factor is the
mini van.

Much of the US is a truck culture. You can drive more places and carry more
cargo than anything else. In this case, status becomes proudly declaring
yourself as blue collar as opposed to being high status. And have you ever
seen a station wagon with a gun rack? SUV's are simply trucks for which the
cargo is the family rather than a lawnmower.

What are the manufacturers going to do when trucks and SUV's are so popular
and have a higher profit margin? Make more SUV's. Maybe car manufacturers even
make ridiculous looking compacts as sacrificial models to sell more SUV's. You
can have this ridiculous looking golf cart, or you can drive this magnificent
tank.

Outside the US, SUV's are even popular in SE Asia. Which again I think is part
culture (maybe US car culture transmitted through Hollywood) and manufacturer
incentive. One of the few dealerships in the fast growing city I live in
(Philippines) is loaded with SUV's. If that's all you see on the floor and
everyone else is driving one, then that's probably what you are going to drive
also.

~~~
systemtest
In Europe, SUVs and crossovers are bought by people with children, back
problems or those who think that it will make them look interesting. None of
those are “cool”. Unless you like to holler at single moms at the playground
boosting about the triple ISO fix childseat attachment.

Marketing does a great job into making you think that SUVs are for hip young
people with active urban lifestyles but in reality it’s mainly old folks and
parents who buy them.

~~~
LoSboccacc
europe has also a radically different road network. i.e. urban-suv are doing
better here than regular suv because of the difficulties in navigating cities
on larger cars and are eating up station wagons too because they get a
comparable load volume but none of the parking difficulties. (and they also
cost less than full sized suvs and europe has been in a two decade recession,
so there's that going for them too)

~~~
close04
Most CUVs (or urban SUVs) don't really have as much cargo space as a combi.
They are based on the platform of the "regular" sibling (sedan) but with the
bigger wheels and axles taking up some of the interior space. The higher
driving position comes at a price.

To put it in context, a VW Golf Combi or Peugeot 308 SW have 10+% more cargo
space in a package that's slightly longer and narrower than equivalent CUVs
like Skoda Karoq or Peugeot 3008 (2 of the roomiest CUVs out there). Whether
you find width to be a bigger problem than length when navigating depends on
where you live and how you drive. But the choice combi vs. CUV mostly comes
mostly to image.

~~~
Nashooo
Skoda Karoq however can come with very easy (independent) removable backseats
which creates a massive amount of cargo space.

~~~
close04
With most cars you get the option to fold the backseat. In the examples above
the 308 SW has 660/1775 liters, the Karoq has 521/1810 liters.

As you can see the Karoq offers marginally more space only with the seats
folded. But that to me feels like an exceptional usage scenario rather than
the rule. With the seats up the difference is pretty massive (the SW has ~30%
more cargo space) and I think this is the more useful number if you're
interested in cargo space. If you want a higher driving position, or better
ground clearance, etc. a SW won't really do it.

------
pandapower2
Feels like anyone going head to head with Tesla is in for a hard time. It must
be very hard to compete with the cachet of Tesla and the speed with which they
improve their vehicles.

~~~
fgonzag
the porsche taycan seems like the ideal electric car honestly. If the price is
not that ridiculous it'll probably be my first electric vehicle.

~~~
martin_bech
I myself was waiting for the Taycan, its looks stunning, and is very
impressive, but on pure specs, its actually the same size as a Model 3
Performance, and a little slower... So I just ordered a Model 3 Performance. I
currently drive a Model S.

~~~
ulfw
How is that even remotely similar? Wow

~~~
martin_bech
The Model 3 Performance and the Taycan? They are about the same size, 0-100,
top speed, range, charge rate etc etc.

I'll admit that the Taycan will be very nice looking, but it will also be
about twice the price, if going for the same performance.

~~~
adrr
You don't buy a Porsche for 0 to 100 performance as there are better cars on
the market for that. You buy a Porsche because you want the fastest track cars
that will best any other car on the Nurburgring. The Taycan will be the
fastest production electric car on the Ring.

~~~
martin_bech
I think there is a very high chance, that it will be, but right now the M3P,
is beating even the BMW M3 and Mercedes C63 AMG around tracks, as shown by Top
Gear and others. I do however think that people buy them, because they are
performance luxury cars, with a great interior, and great features. Thats why
I was looking at it anyway. Unfortunately because of the danish tax system,
and when the car will be available, the Model 3 Performance, makes much better
sense for me..

------
lovemenot
Longer term, expect Tesla's stronger EV competition in global markets from
another EV-native. One based in China.

~~~
icelancer
This is definitely the most likely scenario. This has wider implications
beyond car delivery, of course. If Chinese EV cars are acceptable to American
consumers, then a lot has happened between now and then which is going to have
serious impact on global trade.

------
acd
Toyota and Volkswagen will make more affordable higher quality main stream
electric cars.

~~~
icelancer
This assumes those companies will solve the energy storage issue in a
reasonable amount of time.

I wouldn't be so sure of that. Tesla does a lot of shit wrong, but Musk is
ahead of people RE: batteries and energy storage importance.

I am reminded of Bezos saying that their headstart in AWS with no viable
competitor for years and years on end is what catapulted Amazon to what it is
today. Tesla has a shot of making that true with regard to batteries.

~~~
tonyedgecombe
I'm not convinced. My prediction is Tesla will be a subsidiary of one of the
big car companies within a decade, probably one of the laggards.

~~~
icelancer
I actually think this is the most likely outcome as well.

------
mikl
It'll be a few more years before you can realistically start talking about
failure.

No one reasonably expected the old car companies to leapfrog Tesla in a year
or two. This is going to be a long battle for market share. It'll take a while
for the "newcomers" to get the consumer trust in their electric cars that
Tesla already enjoys.

------
lazyjones
What I'd like to know is how much money they're losing per car sold on these
models. Jaguar have acknowledged that they're deeper in the red due to higher
than expected i-Pace costs. If they have negative margins on these cars,
perhaps they don't really want to sell more than the budgeted 10K/year or so.

------
Finnucane
Why do they need to 'kill' Tesla? The long-term potential market for electric
cars is presumably large enough for a number of competitors to exist in it. If
it isn't, then it's going to be hard for anyone to make money at it.

~~~
llampx
My cynical side says that if they manage to kill Tesla, they can go back to
the leisurely pace of updates that suits them. Say hello to 100km batteries
being standard, with 300km and 400km packs sold as premium extras.

------
leeoniya
saw this recently:
[https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TP9kokeyxGU](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TP9kokeyxGU)

seems like they're aiming for Model S level pticing, too.

------
paggle
Tesla is only incidentally a car company, it is primarily a battery company.
If any of these competitors really scale up it will be because Tesla chose to
sell them the batteries.

------
petre
This is the first time I hear about the Jaguar I-Pace.

~~~
serpix
Just saw one in the back country in Finland. Really deep in the sticks and on
a small road. Was a great moment seeing it there. The electric revolution is
coming along and unstoppably. Now would be a great time to get a career going
in electrification. Electric installation / Solar power installation you name
it, the demand will skyrocket.

~~~
dagw
_Solar power installation you name it, the demand will skyrocket._

I work tangentially to that field and the problem is that the competition is
fierce. Every old roofing company is now a solar installation company and a
new solar panel company (reselling the same Chinese panels with thinner and
thinner margins) is popping up every week. The only place I can see any
margins is specializing in designing and setting up large industrial scale
setups.

