
HN Poll: Fads – Hype and Hope - tabtab
Vote for the top 3 most-hyped fads, and then the top 3 most likely to succeed. Example: Hype: A,B,C; Hope: D,E,F. Write-ins okay. Left-most letter considered ranked the highest.<p><pre><code>  A. AI
  B. Microservices
  C. IOT
  D. Blockchain&#x2F;Bitcoin
  E. Quantum computing
  F. Cloud
  G. Serverless&#x2F;Edge-Computing
  H. Detox&#x2F;De-Troll&#x2F;Fake-News-Cleaning
  I. Node.js&#x2F;JavaScript-everywhere
  J. Dark-Data&#x2F;Multi-tech Data Mining</code></pre>
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auganov
Hope:

D. Blockchain - I'd say the blockchain is overhyped by the mainstream but
severely underappreciated by Silicon Valley types. It works, it's
fundamentally novel. Money is a big deal and this changes money as we know it.
A huge challenge to governments and legal systems. It has this 90s Internet
feel to it.

H. Detox - Having a safe world where you can trust people is a catalyst for
all kinds of progress.

J. Dark data - It works and is underutilized.

Hype:

A. AI - It's great just don't see us hitting the Kurzweilian hypergrowth.

C. IOT - Mostly has to do with improving the legacy-world. Boring.

B. Microservices - whatever.

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tabtab
Blockchain is just glorified check-sums (on money value and content); I don't
see how it allows things that couldn't be done before. Was check-sum tech
simply too crappy or hack-able back then? Maybe I'm missing something.

Detox = bouncer/moderator. Again, I don't see what's new technology-wise. It's
a business decision to have scrubbers of some kind, and it takes resources to
scrub well. I could see it as a "business trend" or customer preference trend
maybe, but typically the pendulum swings back and forth on such.

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AnimalMuppet
Will you forgive me for putting AI on both lists? Because AI is, I think,
significantly over-hyped, and yet also is succeeding and will continue to do
so - just not enough to live up to the hype.

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tabtab
As far as AI, I suspect the limits of neural nets will become obvious and
there will be an AI slump as investors pull back. R&D will continue, but often
there's a lemming effect where if enough pull out at the same time, investors
in general get spooked and follow. There is too much R&D money in it right
now.

Neural nets will probably need to be combined with rule-bases, simulators,
etc. to give AI more "common sense". Powerful pattern-matching alone is not
enough, only part of the AI puzzle. There will be a slump until somebody
figures out how to combine these well.

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k4ch0w
Hyper: D, B, G; Hope: E, A, C

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gt2
Hype: C, H, I. Hope: E, A, G.

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mpetkevicius
Hype: D, I, B; Hope: C, A, E

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mlthoughts2018
Hype: D,G,C; Hope: A,B,E

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matchmike1313
Hype: C,B,D; Hope: A,E,G

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tabtab
Microservices burned our org. Make sure you have a clear need before diving
in. Microservice-like technologies have been around for roughly 3 decades. If
they were clearly a better general way, they'd have taken off back then. The
reasons they failed back then (as a general technique) are pretty much the
same reason they failed for us.

