
China Is Building a Rain-Making System Three Times as Big as Spain - kawera
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2138866/china-needs-more-water-so-its-building-rain-making-network-three
======
ggm
Excluding systems which put water into the air, Atmospheric water is a zero
sum game AFAIK so if this causes rain to fall where the Chinese want it,
somebody else misses out.

Freshwater from high mountains in the India/China region is a hot topic.
They're running out of glaciers.

~~~
philipodonnell
Wouldn't higher temperatures and lower humidity due to water vapor extraction
lead to an increase the evaporation from the oceans to maintain the balance?

Not saying that wouldn't have other effects, just wondering if atmospheric
water is really a zero sum game.

Based on this [0], it looks like the weather systems head out over the pacific
after passing China, so should have ample time to refuel?

[0] [http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com/2012/02/jet-
stream...](http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com/2012/02/jet-stream.html)

~~~
crowbahr
It's not a 0 sum game so much as an equilibrium expression.

They're just putting their thumb on one side of the scale. Where the extra
evaporation comes from and how it affects global climates is too tricky to
predict but that's not going to stop them so we'll just have to live through
it.

------
alexc05

         Under the guidelines of the Clean Water Act by the 
         EPA, silver iodide is considered a hazardous 
         substance, a priority pollutant, and as a toxic 
         pollutant.(10) Some industries have learned this all 
         too well. ... If the toxicity manifests in pollution 
         and illnesses, the effects may not be reversible ...

[http://www.ranches.org/cloudseedingharmful.htm](http://www.ranches.org/cloudseedingharmful.htm)

So.... this doesn't seem like the best idea.

~~~
truculation
Regardless of the merits or demerits of this particular scheme, I admire the
spirit. With a fraction of such confidence we could revive the Neanderthals,
build an asteroid defence system, clean up the oceans, on and on. Instead
we're not trying much. We feel ashamed... because... why?

~~~
RobertRoberts
At what cost? Some cultures do not value the health and life of the every day
person. I don't think that is something to be honored or respected.

~~~
blacksmith_tb
While clearly true, I think we'd have to rephrase that as "all cultures" \-
here in the US people are sleeping on the sidewalk outside my office. In the
PRC, they're willing to gamble on geoengineering which could poison people
(just not people in power). I can't think of any current society that really
values every member - but we can keep working towards that goal...

~~~
deephoney
Scandinavian societies are pretty good at looking after everyone "in" the
society, though for outsiders things can be hit and miss.

------
panic
Googling around a bit, there seems to be a long history of weather-
modification news coming out of China.

In 2008, according to the Beijing Weather Modification Office, China used
rockets to make sure the Olympic opening ceremony was rain-free:
[https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/olympics/how-beijing-
use...](https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/olympics/how-beijing-used-rockets-
to-keep-opening-ceremony-dry-890294.html)

In 2013, China was producing "55 billion tons of artificial rain a year"
according to the China Meteorological Administration:
[https://qz.com/138141/china-creates-55-billion-tons-of-
artif...](https://qz.com/138141/china-creates-55-billion-tons-of-artificial-
rain-a-year-and-it-plans-to-quintuple-that/)

Last year, the CMA spent millions on airplanes and rockets to affect rainfall:
[http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-
politics/article/206...](http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-
politics/article/2064729/china-showers-y115b-rainmaking-project-parched)

That said, it's unclear whether cloud seeding actually works:
[https://cen.acs.org/articles/94/i22/Does-cloud-seeding-
reall...](https://cen.acs.org/articles/94/i22/Does-cloud-seeding-really-
work.html). An experiment in the US, the Wyoming Weather Modification Pilot
Program, gave somewhat positive but inconclusive results on the order of a 5
to 15 percent increase in precipitation amount:
[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-may-never-know-
how-w...](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-may-never-know-how-well-
cloud-seeding-works/)

And, sure enough, in 2011, China's rainmaking tech wasn't enough to fix the
Yangtze delta drought:
[https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/jun/01/china-
dr...](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/jun/01/china-drought-
weather-modifying-yangtze)

To me, all this rain-making news out of China seems like either propaganda or
some Chinese government bureau justifying its existence by inflating how much
this cloud-seeding technology can actually do. But that's just my feeling from
an hour of searching around and skimming articles -- I'd love to hear how I'm
wrong!

~~~
furyg3
> To me, all this rain-making news out of China seems like either propaganda

It's easier to organize a very public and sophisticated rain dance than it is
to properly manage water resources at scale.

------
bigbluedots
The potential environmental impact of loads of silver iodide on human and
other animal life is of concern. But it is China, so they probably don't care
about that aspect.

~~~
murukesh_s
Not only China, but which large country cares about larger environmental
impact? Looking at the weapons the big countries are still building (man made
floods, tornadoes etc) I don't think it's fair to target China alone.

~~~
rattray
> which large country cares about larger environmental impact?

Germany and Japan come to mind.

~~~
titzer
Such irony. The losers of WWII now care about the fate of the planet more than
the "winners". I say "winners" because no one really wins a war. We all lose.

~~~
blauditore
Huh, what does this have to do with the _outcome_ of a war? That would imply
that someone can win a war by caring about the planet. Also, caring about
climate change does not necessarily have a strong correlation with views on
war.

Apart of that, generations have passed since then. The majority of people
alive now were born after the war, so shift in mindset is not too surprising.

~~~
titzer
> ...caring about climate change does not necessarily have a strong
> correlation with views on war.

I think the right side of the American political spectrum pretty much
disproves this one.

~~~
nugi
Thats funny, I have never met anyone from any political system, short of
nhilism, who doesen't care about climate change. The argument, whivh you seem
to be intentionally reframing, is about the cause of said change. Don't make
HN political, particularlly with petty, misleading quips like that.

~~~
titzer
No, I am not reframing. I'm sorry for your limited experience, but I have met
far too many conservatives that all but spell it out. I used to be one and
traveled in those circles. Look at people's actions. Conservatives in Congress
and the WH cut the EPA, they cut Climate Science budgets, and not only do they
offer all-out denial, they often just flat out state that a warmer planet
would be or could be a good thing. So if that doesn't qualify as "not caring"
about climate change, then we aren't seeing the same thing. Obviously, not
everyone on the right is a fire-breathing climate denialist, but the OP was
about correlation between views on war and views on climate change and IMHO
there is strong one.

~~~
merpnderp
Anecdote doesn't make data, otherwise my personal experience of never having
once met a conservative that doesn't care about clean air and water would
cancel out your experience.

Straw men and ad hominem don't make up for actual data.

~~~
titzer
I am not certain what model you use for reasoning, but if person A says "I
never saw X" and person B says "I saw X on occasions Y, Z, and W", then they
don't "cancel each other out," unless someone is lying. Literally the entire
rest of my comment was not about what I thought I saw, but what people have
actually done. E.g. I mentioned what conservatives in Congress have actually
_done_ (e.g. latest [https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-
environment/wp/20...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-
environment/wp/2018/02/12/trump-budget-seeks-23-percent-cut-at-epa-would-
eliminate-dozens-of-programs/)) and suddenly we are arguing about anecdotes
and I'm accused of offering strawmen. Uh, no.

------
cdepman
I think access to water resources has always been part, if not the bulk, of
modern China's Tibet play. And now they're starting to tap into those
resources. I wonder what the effects will be once they start pumping / rain-
making at an even more massive scale.

More on water resources in Tibet: [http://www.tibetnature.net/en/introduction-
water-resources/](http://www.tibetnature.net/en/introduction-water-resources/)

~~~
sametmax
Well yeah. It's a territory next to India, which is short on water, has a huge
population and the atomic bomb. So it was always about who would get it first
without getting busted.

------
zenmollusc
Where would this rain that's being diverted normally end up?

Is some other country going to have a drought because of this?

~~~
jcoffland
It's possible, even likely, that much of the rain would have fallen on the
ocean.

~~~
Thetawaves
Really? Because most of the moisture originated from the oceans in the first
place. Are you saying that after genesis, it travels for some time over land
before being deposited back in an ocean?

~~~
shahar2k
provided no other variables... considering it's 71% of the area of the planet,
I'd say it's 71% likely to rain on the ocean

~~~
collyw
That sounds kind of shortsighted reasoning. I know that in Scotland most of
the weather comes from the West, hits the mountains and falls as rain. Its
dryer on the east coast (though it still rains plenty).

~~~
logfromblammo
In the US, prevailing weather moves from west to east.

Moist air from the Pacific is immediately pushed up by the Rockies and rains
out. Almost the entire US West is in the rain shadow, and very dry. Weather
patterns pushing north from the Gulf of Mexico and passing over the Great
Lakes restore normal rainfall roughly between the Mississippi River and the
Appalachians. Since those are very old and weathered mountains, there is a
very slight rain shadow to their east, and proximity to the coast evens it out
shortly thereafter. Most of the deserts in the US Southwest only get rain from
the monsoon thunderstorms from Gulf of California and Gulf of Mexico, because
otherwise they're "behind" the mountains all the time.

Obviously, the oceans themselves don't have mountains that cast rain shadows.
But they have warm and cold currents. Cold currents have a sort of shadow,
because they evaporate less moisture into passing air masses. The warm/cold
current split is why San Diego is dry while San Francisco is wet.

Scotland's winds blow over the Norwegian branch of the North Atlantic warm
current, rain out over the highlands, and rain out a tiny bit less on the
lowlands. The patterns are entirely predictable from orography and oceanic
currents. All of Britain is warmer and wetter from the current, and Scotland
is where all the mountains are.

Both effects come together at the Atacama Desert, because it's in the
orographic rain shadow from the Andes _and_ has a dry coast from a cold ocean
current.

Even if the entire planet was covered in ocean, there would still be uneven
rainfall patterns, as the circulation currents would be influenced by
underwater ridges and seamounts, wind patterns, and seasons.

------
blondie9x
This should be regulated internationally by the UN. This solution is like
turning on the AC when it's hot out. It won't make it less hot outside and you
will need more and more electricity to power the AC as the world heats up from
increased CO2 levels.

This technology releases significant amounts of CO2 and as the Earth's
temperature rises from increased greenhouse gas concentrations, solutions such
as these will show diminishing returns because the technology they are built
upon only worsens the underlying problem by producing significant amounts of
the gas causing the problem in the first place.

Disappointing approach to solving climate change and mitigating it's impacts.

~~~
sametmax
What's more, local weather is always existing in a global context. When
they'll modify the meteorology at the scale of their country, it may very well
impact the climate of the entire planet. Water must come from somewhere. Air
current will be impacted. And temperature deltas.

It's very concerning.

~~~
unsigner
How dare they think of their own country! Those are trully irresponsible
national leaders.

~~~
sametmax
There is a huge gap between doing something that will improve your situation
only, and one that does at the expense of everyone else.

------
hyperpallium
I've always thought Australia should build a giant canal from the Great
Australia Bite up through central Australia. Perhaps forming a permanent
inland sea. The sea water evaporating would fall as rain (not sure _where_ ,
though...).

A question for this article is who would have gotten that rain had it not been
seeded.

~~~
akerr
Do you mean Lake Eyre?
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Eyre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Eyre)

There has been discussion about flooding it with sea water for years but it
seems impractical.

~~~
hyperpallium
Not specifically, more DIY inland sea.

I think the big problem is motivation: we have heaps of arable land, and
people are increasingly concentrated in cities.

EDIT thanks for the headsup, there's quite a bit online about it. I had this
idea pre-internet, but haven't had the idea of googling it. IANA millennial,
AMA (but I won't know).

------
rgrieselhuber
Interesting how quickly we went from “weather modification is a conspiracy
theory” to reporting about it on an increasingly regular basis.

~~~
hungerstrike
You're right. As a fan of conspiracy theory drama, I love it when I make this
discovery (how something went from conspiracy theory to non-conspiracy
theory). I had actually read about this before it had its own Wikipedia page
and people thought I was crazy if I chose to speak about it -
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Popeye](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Popeye)

Those who have a deep desire to be in control will try almost anything.

As far as actual conspiracy theories go, I don't see why some people have such
a hard time imagining that powerful, control-hungry people could form groups
and work together to feed their desires. I guess they just can't relate
because that's not how they think or they just don't want to think about it
because it makes them uncomfortable.

------
tim333
>The chambers burn solid fuel to produce silver iodide

seems a little off - most fuel doesn't contain silver or iodine. I expect what
happens is the put silver iodide on the fuel and then they heat produced
causes it to rise up in the manner of a hot air balloon.

Incidentally silver iodide seems to cost $300-$500 / kg but you don't need
very much of it

Wikipedia has "Approximately 50,000 kg are used for cloud seeding annually,
each seeding experiment consuming 10–50 grams."

------
aeroman
Unfortunately there is little evidence that cloud seeding is actually able to
increase the overall precipitation in most cases [0 - response to NRC report
on cloud seeding].

There are spectacular results when glaciating individual clouds [1] and there
is some evidence of glaciogenic cloud seeding (the kind done with silver
iodide) working in mountainous regions where supercooled clouds are common [2
- paywalled unfortunately]. However, much of the Tibetan plateau has high
amounts of dust, which means that the clouds already form ice at relatively
warm temperatures [3]. In this case, silver iodide might not be expected to
have a large effect on precipitation formation.

It is also very difficult to detect a change in precipitation, as it varies
strongly in both space and time, requiring long averaging periods to detect a
change. This will be an very useful experiment if it goes forward, but I
suspect that concerns over rain-stealing are rather overblown, as are hopes
that it could significantly enhance rainfall in arid regions.

[0] -
[https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-86-5-647](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-86-5-647)

[1] - [https://www.ge.com/reports/snow-men-cometh-kurt-vonnegut-
ice...](https://www.ge.com/reports/snow-men-cometh-kurt-vonnegut-ice-nine-
white-christmas-demand/)

[2] -
[http://www.pnas.org/content/115/6/1168](http://www.pnas.org/content/115/6/1168)

[3] -
[http://www.pnas.org/content/107/25/11211](http://www.pnas.org/content/107/25/11211)

------
jkw
This sounds like a potential military weapon as well

~~~
mc32
They mention the US, CN and then SU, now RU, had engaged in weather research
for offensive purposes --but at least some of that has turned to defensive
measures now, given pop growth and climate change.

------
gregw134
Really cool. It uses silver iodide though. How much silver would need to be
consumed to make this work? That probably won't be cheap.

------
maxgiraldo
Why not plant trees? [https://forestsnews.cifor.org/10316/make-it-rain-
planting-fo...](https://forestsnews.cifor.org/10316/make-it-rain-planting-
forests-to-help-drought-stricken-regions?fnl=en)

~~~
echevil
China is probably planting more trees than any other country in the world.

[http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/20305/20160321/china...](http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/20305/20160321/china-
reforestation-nasa-deforestation-efforts-pollution.htm)

“Based on the images captured by NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging
Spectroradiometer (MODIS), it was revealed that 1.6 percent of the total land
surface of China became heavily forested in a span of only ten years from 2000
to 2010.”

[http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/284/1854/2016...](http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/284/1854/20162559)

“China is investing immense resources for planting trees, totalling more than
US$ 100 billion in the past decade alone”

------
rdsubhas
Not being apocalyptic and all, but reminds me of this:

[http://matrix.wikia.com/wiki/Operation_Dark_Storm](http://matrix.wikia.com/wiki/Operation_Dark_Storm)

------
Digit-Al
Sounds like a bad idea [1] to me.

1\.
[http://www.ranches.org/cloudseedingharmful.htm](http://www.ranches.org/cloudseedingharmful.htm)

------
f_allwein
> The system, which involves an enormous network of fuel-burning chambers

Oh dear... Wonder what will be burned there?

------
_bxg1
> The chambers burn solid fuel to produce silver iodide, a cloud-seeding agent
> with a crystalline structure much like ice.

> ...releasing only vapours and carbon dioxide, which makes them suitable for
> use even in environmentally protected areas.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm

------
trophycase
I'm sure this will have no unintended consequences...

------
magwa101
What could go wrong?

------
Giorgi
What exactly is being burned to produce silver iodide?

------
product50
In other news, in San Francisco, the NIMBYs won an agitation to prevent a 4
school building from being constructed.

I am kidding..maybe.

In all honestly, I think the time for US to create large scale construction
projects that serve humanity (at the expense of environment) are over. We are
lucky that the interstates got build in 1950s, that the NYC Subway was formed
in late 19th century etc. Today, the regulations and outrage is so strong that
none of these would have been possible.

It is good to see other countries such as China being on the cutting edge to
see what is possible.

~~~
tomcooks
Not an engineer but, if your infrastructure is that old first of all I'd focus
on maintenance, rather than having dick measuring contests with countries that
have questionable attitudes towards pollution, safety and nature.

~~~
spiderfarmer
The condition of the roads and infrastructure in a large part of the US is
very, very bad when compared to countries like the Netherlands. It’s like the
US is a superpower with third world infrastructure.

~~~
arien
Maintenance of old infrastructure in large projects is difficult and budget
for this purpose is hard to justify, while building new things gets harder due
to (self imposed) new regulations and higher costs (outsourcing might be
cheaper, but always has some risks...).

I don't know, sounds very familiar :)

~~~
tomcooks
While I agree with you 101% I think that politics play a huge factor on this:
no administration wants to do its homeworks, only for the next one to profit
from the shiny new infrastructure.

I believe this is a stronger factor in countries that have a maximum amount of
mandates per administration.

------
trisimix
_steals tibet_ _fucks it up with silver iodide_

~~~
dang
Please don't do internet tropes here. They're bad for discussion quality. On
HN the idea is to (a) have a substantive point to make and (b) make it
thoughtfully.

[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html)

------
thinkloop
MIT figured out fusion this month, water shortages are on the verge of being
solved since water is not scarce, just dirty/salty - it's an energy problem.

~~~
dx034
I think the recent 200GW solar power deal between Saudi Arabia and SoftBank
has more potential to solve desalination problems than Fusion (at least over
the medium term).

~~~
thinkloop
That too, although solar still has relatively high costs per watt. Fusion can
make energy nearly free.

~~~
rgbrenner
No, fusion wont make energy nearly free.

Let's pretend a fusion plant is completely free to build, maintain, operate,
and decommission.

50% of the cost of electricity is from transmission and distribution. Those
costs aren't going anywhere.

So at most, you'll get a 50% savings. But you're not getting that either,
because that fusion plant definitely wont be free.

~~~
fspeech
For the purported usage (desalination) distribution is not an issue. But
obviously fusion generated electricity won't be free, though marginal cost of
production may approach that (if it ever becomes a reality).

~~~
dx034
But for AC, you have both distribution and variable demand. Not sure how easy
fusion plants will be able to react to demand. If they're like nuclear plants,
you'll need a sizeable amount of peaker capacity as well (not that solar
wouldn't need that).

------
speeq
This is total conspiracy theory stuff and I'll probably get downvoted into
oblivion but has anyone else in London found it really strange on how on the
day of the Brexit referendum - we had these sudden overnight thunderstorms
which resulted in many roads being flooded, polling stations being
inaccessible and huge delays / suspensions of the Tube? Just a coincidence and
bad luck?

* [http://uk.businessinsider.com/polls-open-britain-eu-referend...](http://uk.businessinsider.com/polls-open-britain-eu-referendum-london-weather-2016-6)

* [https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/22...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/22/brexit-heavy-rain-with-a-chance-of-leaving-the-e-u/?utm_term=.bcafd7f1b002)

* [https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-commuters-u...](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-commuters-urged-go-8262824)

The next morning it all cleared away and it was a beautiful sunny day to the
point where even Nigel Farage had to make a comment / joke about it
[[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLCb1cGROAw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLCb1cGROAw)].

If localized rain-making on a massive scale like this is possible, I wonder if
it was used to manipulate the referendum by whoever might be interested in
that.

~~~
baxtr
Rain coming down over London is really strange and noteworthy.

~~~
speeq
> The issues were caused after the South East was struck by a massive
> thunderstorm, which saw a month's worth of rain fall in an hour, in the
> early hours of EU referendum day.

I've lived in London for a while, it was definitely not your usual bit of
rain.

