
Eric Schmidt Is Right: Google’s Glory Days Are Numbered - aaronbrethorst
http://techcrunch.com/2011/11/06/schmidt-right-google’s-glory-days-numbered/
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tensor
How much of Google's total revenue comes from iPhone searches that Siri would
possibly redirect? Let's not forget that Google gets revenue from a great
number of advertising markets.

They bought DoubleClick, YouTube, they have their own AdWords program. There
is also Google mobile ads for both mobile versions of websites as well as
Android. Android itself represents something like 40% of the mobile market.

Even on the iPhone itself, what does Siri redirect away from google?
Restaurant queries. Some question answering queries. Appointments, playing
music, setting timers, sending emails, none of those are relevant to this
argument. The remaining queries all still go to Google and google gets paid
for these either from it's API usage or from later ad impressions.

This argument was poor and full of hyperbole when it first appeared in the
scene and it surprises me to see it continuing to make the rounds.

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mindstab
I'm getting pretty tired of these "siri is our new savior" articles. Siri is a
lobotomized brain dead service outside of the states.

In canada? "siri, where can I buy a candy bar?" > I'm sorry, I can't search
for locations in canada "siri, where is the Tacoma dome" > I'm sorry, I cant
search for locations in canada

Pull out my ancient google phone, hit the voice command button "where is the
tacoma dome" > loads a google map centered on the tacoma dome

Google has had voice command for a long time now, they just didn't
anthropomorphize it, they didn't give it a name and some sarcasm.... they just
made it work... everywhere.

~~~
jayfuerstenberg
It's true, Google did made it work everywhere.

But I think Google should anthropomorphize theirs too. After all, people are
used to talking to people.

~~~
bookwormAT
But you cannot talk to Siri like you can talk to people.

The charade breaks after a short while. And after that, if you want to know
the weather, you stop saying "Siri, what's the weather like today?". Instead
you order "weather". Because you learned that this is what the "AI" triggers
to show you the weather.

I think the question if people want to talk to their phone is not relevant
today, because we do not have the technology yet to make the phone really
understand what we are saying.

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buddylw
There are problems with Google, and I don't disagree with the headline, but I
don't see Siri as the disruption. Google already has voice search, and I am
pretty sure they are working hard on getting it up to the user friendliness of
Siri. They will 'catch up'.

The real question has absolutely nothing to do with Siri and everything to do
with innovation in general. As long as Google continues to innovate they will
be on top. Historically all companies eventually get too large and gunk up
their own 'innovation machinery'. It's only a matter of time. Same goes for
Apple.

~~~
jtchang
Don't forget that companies are in the end made up of individuals. The key is
when those individuals find it difficult or impossible to innovate within the
confines of the company. This is what you should look for as it is the trigger
that results in the inevitable downfall. The individual starts to look
elsewhere (even starting their own company) and thus a new giant, monolithic
corporation is born.

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danielrhodes
Anybody with an Android can tell you the threat of Siri is vastly overstated.

~~~
mnutt
I have both an iPhone 4s and a Nexus S. The first thing I did when I got the
iPhone was to play with Siri for an hour.

Only tonight did I realize that Android also has voice recognition, and it's
pretty good. But the threat of Siri is very real, mostly due to Apple's
marketing.

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Achshar
Well all that is true until Google launches something like siri but better,
because they have been doing voice recognition and (of couse) search for long
time.

~~~
cop359
Unless Apple has it patented up the wazoo. Which they no doubt do.

(As an aside; I think this is a completely fair use of patents. You're
creative, you make a new patent, you get to exclusively use that technology
for the next X years to build market share)

~~~
monjaro
Which parts of Siri are so original that Apple deserves a monopoly on them for
20 years? Just take a second and think about how long 20 years is in software.
Do you really think that no one else would have invented a similar product
given 20 years?

~~~
cop359
Yes, patent lengths are rather absurd in this day and age. It should be on the
order of 3 years. While it's easy for Apple to catapult new software into the
market place, it can take several years for a small entrepreneur to market his
technology.

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rprime
Whoever wrote that article has only used an iPhone and the web just for some
time now. From my point of view Siri is just a toy, yes, is cool, funny, smart
but again, is just a toy, I couldn't really use it in real situation, probably
Siri could disrupt the GPS manufacturers market as the only place I feel
confortable talking with a device is in the car.

~~~
gfodor
Re-read your comment, it sounds like the type of statement that is just ripe
for foot-in-mouth syndrome 5 years from now.

~~~
rprime
Excuse my english, 5 in the morning, writing from a phone. Will try to
rephrase that later.

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masonlee
The ace up Apple's sleeve is their full hardware and operating system control
on iOS devices. Siri is just another example of this. Third-party software on
iPhone is sandboxed in many ways that give Apple apps a competitive advantage.

With regard to Siri and voice control, no third party app is allowed to
respond to the critical press-and-hold-home-button shortcut. Another example
is the hardware volume buttons, which Apple repurposes for Camera.app shutter
control, but access to which was denied for the popular third party Camera+
app for that same purpose. Only Apple's Camera.app gets a lock-screen
shortcut. Only Apple apps are allowed to access the carrier's SMS and
voicemail. Only iBooks got access to real brightness control (may have changed
in iOS 5). Only Apple apps can show a photo preview (e.g. MMS/iMessage) in a
notification. Only Apple apps get to put widgets in the iOS 5 Notifications
panel. The list goes on...

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jayfuerstenberg
Google has one advantage for the time being in being able to support more
languages and regions.

My Siri can't give me directions or maps in Japan yet which is a bit of a
disappointment. Hopefully it'll be rectified soon.

------
jayfuerstenberg
I think the threat Siri poses to Google is that it relegates Google to the
background.

People on Smartphones can ask a question of Siri in 2~3 seconds as opposed to
typing that question in Google within 10~20.

And if Siri can't answer the question she offers to send you to Google without
having to type that question again.

I've never used Android search before, but I hope it's as good as Siri if
Google wants to stay competitive.

~~~
SomeCallMeTim
>People on Smartphones can ask a question of Siri in 2~3 seconds as opposed to
typing that question in Google within 10~20.

Umm...Siri is cool, but that's not the advantage over Android. Android has had
awesome voice recognition built in for ... over a year now? Not sure exactly
how long, but my wife's dirt cheap ($150 with no contract) phone does voice
recognition really well. I haven't had to type in a search query (with a 3G or
WiFi connection active) since I got my new Android phone, either.

In addition to the basic Google search, it will send you to Google Navigation,
send SMS messages to a friend in your contacts, and other things (I don't have
the list in front of me). Siri adds to it by having a bit more context ("when
I get home", for instance). It's cool, but it's not the voice recognition
that's new. Except on the iPhone.

The big significance to Google is that it cuts them out of the iPhone search.
But there are more Android phones than iPhones already, and the Android is
growing faster, so that's becoming less relevant as well.

~~~
jayfuerstenberg
Sorry, maybe I didn't phrase my point correctly.

Since Apple controls the iPhone they can make it favorable for people to avoid
visiting google.com and typing in their query (of course they can dictate that
query too).

That's a very powerful position to be in.

Apple has demonstrated this by making Wolfram Alpha available for answering
some queries.

I see Apple continuing on this road and maybe aggregating results from various
search engines (including Google even) and presenting them outside of Google's
format.

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masonlee
Will Apple open Siri to third party developers before Siri is out of "beta"?
It would be nice to be able to ask Siri to do something that involves an
arbitrary third-party app. Maybe apps could register to respond to certain
voice "intents", similar to Android?

