

SEO Is Mostly Quack Science - tumult
http://teddziuba.com/2010/06/seo-is-mostly-quack-science.html

======
randfish
I don't typically like to argue on a third party site, but the post in
question sadly doesn't allow comments. The original post, however, does -
[http://www.seomoz.org/blog/google-vs-bing-correlation-
analys...](http://www.seomoz.org/blog/google-vs-bing-correlation-analysis-of-
ranking-elements) \- and I wish Ted had taken up this discussion there so as
to permit/invite feedback.

The research itself was presented in, what I (and many, many others) believe
to be precisely the right fashion. We pulled page 1 results from 11,000+
search results, then looked at Spearman's correlation co-efficient for each
element.

This blogger pulled out a small section of the post and disagreed with the
recommendations we made, which I think is perfectly fine and reasonable.
However, to discount/discourage future research or suggest an entire field is
illegitimate seems inappropriate.

It would seem, for example, highly subjective to include the bit he did
without also including this portion:

Methodology

\- We collected 11,351 search results from both Google & Bing via Google
AdWords suggest data for the various categories (you can see these keywords
yourself via Google's AdWords tool)

\- We looked only at the first page of results (which typically included 10
results, but sometimes contained a higher or lower number). We ignored all no-
standard results (meaning universal or vertical results such as video, images,
local or "instant answers")

\- The correlations relate to higher/lower positional ranking on page 1 of the
search results

\- We controlled for search results where all (or none) of the results matched
the metric. Thus, for example, if we were looking for correlation with .gov
domains and no results in the set included a .gov domain, we didn't use that
SERP for that dataset.

\- We've used Spearman's correlation coefficient, as it is the standard (and
in our opinion, best choice) for ranked datasets. You can read more about this
selection via Ben's comments here and here.

and this:

Understanding Correlation Significance

The correlation numbers we show range between -0.2 and 0.35, where a perfect
correlation would be 1.0 and no correlation would be 0.0.

The standard error for each result set is also included, but tends to be so
low in most cases that displaying it on the bar graph would make it nearly
invisible. This is thanks to the large number of results collected - we've got
very high confidence in the statistical significance of these.

Correlation ≠ Causation

It's long been held in statistical analysis that even very high correlations
do not necessarily mean one data set is the cause of the other. People holding
umbrellas don't cause rain. Ice cream sales don't cause hot weather.

For example, the more I wear suits, the more I speak on panels about SEO. Does
it therefore follow that wearing suits gets me onto panels about SEO?

It's critical to know that the data below, like data from other types of SEO
tests, requires careful consideration and analysis. Parsing a bigger
correlation as a direct sign that one should do X or Y more would be a
fallacy.

I guess I'm just a little frustrated because this topic has been discussed
over and over again, yet old stereotypes and ad hominem attacks still pervade.

See previous pieces:

<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1402544>

[http://searchengineland.com/an-open-letter-to-derek-
powazek-...](http://searchengineland.com/an-open-letter-to-derek-powazek-on-
the-value-of-seo-27680)

[http://searchengineland.com/from-my-inbox-more-defense-of-
se...](http://searchengineland.com/from-my-inbox-more-defense-of-seo-11189)

<http://searchengineland.com/defending-seo-yet-again-10163>

<http://ycombinator.posterous.com/the-first-yc-conference>

------
jeffreyrusso
Google isn't some "great equalizer" that ranks content purely on its merit.
There is an entire economy working behind the scenes that determines which
pages end up at the top of the search results. On top of that, there are a
huge number of complex technical issues that regularly get in the way of
worthy content being ranked. Understanding how this process works and how to
best present your content is not manipulative at all. If anything, SEO is only
going to grow as competition for rankings becomes more fierce and search
becomes more complicated.

I also think the author chose the wrong article to pick on. There are so many
poorly written and poorly researched pieces of advice on SEO out there - the
article they chose isn't one of them.

------
Aaronontheweb
I disagree with the title of this Hacker News item, but not so much the
contents of the article.

Fundamentally speaking, SEO is about three things:

1\. Making an information architecture that makes it easy for spiders and
humans to find what they want (301 redirects, good top-level navigation,
sitemaps, clean URLs, etc...);

2\. Sending strong contextual signals to spiders about what a page / piece of
content is about through anchor text, alt attributes, good title tags, and
basic good web design;

3\. Strategically building links to key pages.

That's it - SEO in its totality isn't junk science, it's just that the hair-
splitting crap that goes on at places like SEOMoz is just that: hair-splitting
over minutia that really makes no practical difference at all.

~~~
pbhjpbhj
>Non-brain-damaged web design and link building are 100% of SEO.

You largely echo this sentiment of the article. However you're missing on 2
very important points IMO.

One is that there are hidden algorithms used to determine where a page ranks
in the SERPs. By testing and iterating one can determine sufficient detail to
game the algorithm and produce better rankings. This is science. Hypothesise,
test, analyse, improve, iterate.

Two is that a minute difference in page "score" can be a lot in terms of rank
and hence expected return assuming visits can be turned to sales.

Certain SEOs can and do acquire and maintain top rankings. They're not doing
it by doing the same as everyone else, the algo's shift and these SEOs
maintain their positions.

Those minutiae you're hair-splitting are like deviations to the fine-structure
constant, the results cascade to greater final effects.

~~~
Aaronontheweb
"By testing and iterating one can determine sufficient detail to game the
algorithm and produce better rankings. This is science. Hypothesise, test,
analyse, improve, iterate."

The point of the article is that the people who conduct this type of research
get the science wrong more often than not.

~~~
pbhjpbhj
Do you mean they don't follow the logical conclusion of the results or do you
mean their hypotheses are poor? The latter is not wrong science.

------
mootothemax
I view SEO along the exact same lines as cover letters and CVs; if you portray
youself well enough then you'll get your foot in the door: the rest is down to
_you_.

The real difficulty is in conversions. For example, I'm looking for a full-
time job in my recently-adopted homeland of Poland. I know that I am a kick-
ass programmer, but the fact that I struggle with the Polish language means
that I'm un-optimized.

I'm now working on the language side of things, and yeah, you'd better expect
that 12 months from now I'm gonna kick a metric shedload of ass!

So, take the same view of your website - what's wrong, what doesn't convert,
and _why_ \- and you'll be sorted.

All it takes hard work, but it is by no means insurmountable.

------
gbrindisi
I think SEO is a dead disciple walking, it's like cheating to me. Should be
Search Engine business to find out the best websites for your searches, not
your business to make your pages suited for X or Y searches even if they are
poorly interesting.

~~~
patio11
SEO is to search engines as PR is to journalists. There is a whole spectrum of
cynicism, but at the less cynical end, "They won't cover your product unless
you wrap it up in an appealing story."

I have often thought that one of Google's great coups in marketing is
convincing many programmers that there algorithm, unique among all others
known to man, has _moral authority_. Nobody ever says that about travelling
salesman heuristic approaches... Maybe this is due to the pervasive
misconception that search engine algorithms actually measure quality of
content, or that they could.

~~~
pw
You've said this before about Google, but I only just now realized what you're
getting at: What's to say that my (hypothetical) site that shows up #9 on
Google shouldn't be #1 and that users wouldn't benefit from it being #1? Maybe
it should, maybe it shouldn't, but _that is_ an argument one can make.

~~~
patio11
Right. (Sorry if I didn't make that explicit before: I take for granted that
SEO can provide value for users, too.)

A very optimistic person could say that the search results are due not just to
Google's algorithms but the cooperation of Google's algorithms and webmasters
optimizing for them, and that without both of these elements, the Internet
would be a much poorer place than it is currently.

One example is meta description tags. That is useful for site owners (good
snippets increase CTR), useful for users (good snippets make the search
results magically better by telling you what you're going to get before the
click), _and_ useful for Google. Good meta description tags _only exist
because of SEOs_ and do not follow under the frequently argued "Meh, that is
just a common web usability guideline" shibboleth. To the best of my knowledge
no common user agent surfaces them anywhere users can see them. They exist
because they're used for search engine result pages, and that's all.

------
rizzy
Rankings are money and money makes the world go round. As long as there are
search engines there will always be SEOs. There is a lot of science involved.
If you don't think so then your only kidding yourself.

------
billswift
The author missed one of the more subtle signs of quackery:

Research intended to "show the validity" of a hypothesis, rather than to
disprove it.

~~~
randfish
The goal of this research was not intended to prove any hypothesis, it was
exploratory in nature, designed to show the differences in ranking
correlations between results on Google vs. Bing. One might argue that the
hypothesis being tested was "Google and Bing use very different ranking
algorithms" and the results would suggest that differences certainly exist,
but maybe be more subtle than what's generally assumed.

Of course, that statement only applies to the items looked at in the research.
We don't, for example, know how the two engines may value different links
differently.

------
blasdel
Congratulations, SeoMoz, you're king of the shitpile!

~~~
randfish
Hey Fred - I'm the CEO & founder at SEOmoz. We're here in Seattle, too, but
don't quite think of ourselves this way. If you're ever around and interested,
our offices are a block from Pike Place Market and I'd be happy to buy you a
coffee (or other beverage of choice) and chat about how and why SEO helps real
people, companies and websites do great things all the time.

