
Ask HN: IF the Bitcoin bubble bursts, where would you invest next? - 1k
Assuming you sold before the bubble bursts
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0bsidian
I would buy more Bitcoin.

The world needs a censorship-resistant digital vault to store wealth. Bitcoin
is basically a very cheap "Swiss bank account as a service" for the world's
unbanked.

Some use cases I can think off the top of my head:

(1) You are from Syria and need to flee war and escape into Europe – however
bank transfers into Europe are almost impossible if you are a common Syrian.
Bitcoin allows you to take your wealth with you, in your brain, as you escape
across the border, by just memorising your twelve word private key.

(2) You are from Venezuela or Zimbabwe – The government has issued capital
controls and is devaluing currency by the day. You transfer your wealth into
Bitcoin in order to offset capital erosion due to hyper-inflation. When the
situation stabilises, you transfer your Bitcoin back into fiat.

(3) You are Saudi billionaire Al-Waleed bin Talal. The government freezes all
your assets in a political coup. If you have a portion of your wealth in
Bitcoin, you could protect them from government expropriation and anonymously
transfer them to associates or family members abroad.

I truly believe that Bitcoin will serve the unbanked of the world. We're not
there yet, but these are very early days for crypto.

Sorry for the long winded response, I get excited when talking about BTC.

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Tepix
What if there's a reason why its bubble bursts? Perhaps a single party manages
to have >51% hash power for a long time. Or Bitcoin exchanges get outlawed in
several important countries. Or fees keep rising to $50 or higher per
transaction.

These developments could make Bitcoin (mostly) unusable and thus worthless.
Would you still buy more?

~~~
neuralzen
Since BTC is paired with the blooming crypto markets and platforms of services
they provide, it would be easier to blow out a spark in a gently accelerating
hurricane of gasoline fumes and powdered creamer. It's not a bubble, it is the
pin pricking the paradigm.

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zaarn
Invest in Butter and Corn, when the Bitcoin Bubble inevitably bursts Popcorn
will be in high demand.

I think it would not be a bad idea to just follow investment advice; take a
well performing index or ETF and stick to that. Maybe invest some into bitcoin
again after the bubble has burst and it has a closer to reality value.

~~~
sunseb
Good sense of humor there :)

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BjoernKW
A small amount in Bitcoin is the only speculation I indulge in. For now
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are just that: Casino money.

In terms of real investment ETFs and - to a lesser extent - individual company
shares are still the way to go.

~~~
SnowingXIV
Very much so, I've had a few coworkers ask about Bitcoin and if they should
invest (because they've seen me use my lunch money). I say, it's an
interesting subject just like maybe a slot machine that has a theme you like
such as Game of Thrones. I do the same with some company stocks that look
promising _and_ I enjoy following but again - not viewing these as a true
investment.

I would love to strike gold, but it's complete gambling at this point and I'm
likely not putting in enough to see life changing dividends. I never would
recommend someone to invest in Bitcoin but if they have extra money and are
looking to gamble in an interesting way go for it.

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quickthrower2
I don't consider Bitcoin to be an investment per-se. More of a punt. If I need
an alternative way to punt, maybe some penny stocks?

~~~
vibrio
I came here to say this. Knowing the difference between an investment and a
gamble is my most important rule in money management. There is nothing wrong
with gambling-just know when and to what extent you are doing it.

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megadethz
I’d look into Monero and Zcash. Allow my wealth to be truly private.

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surreptitious00
Ethereum, the flippening will happen and when it does it will happen fast.
Ether transfers in seconds for a fraction of a penny, it's a better
cryptocurrency that bitcoin and that's not even its billing. It has far more
utility and will use far less energy with a hybrid Proof of Stake/Proof of
Work and eventual Proof of Stake consensus. So much more in the works,
Ethereum's brightest days are ahead. All that while bitcoin squabbling brings
it low, fork after fork after fork. It stands as an amazing proof of concept
does bitcoin, but in a short number of years it will be in a museum.

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onecooldev24
If the bubble bursts the right place to invest would be bitcoin itself.
Whether you like it or not BTC is here to stay and most likely going to be the
next currency.

A lot of people hate BTC on this forum cause they feel they missed out.

~~~
RantyDave
I do hate bitcoin and for exactly that reason. But I'm conflicted about it -
if I could make a huge amount of money and know, for a fact, that it was
caused by me being in the right place to take money off people who actually
earned it... is this a bad thing to do?

It's a confidence trick - is it bad to be a con artist? Or is relieving the
gullible of their hard earned cash a noble pastime? There certainly isn't any
actual value being created.

But if a bunch of greedy bastards wanted to pay off my mortgage, I can't see
I'd have a problem with it.

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raphaelj
Bitcoin is just pure speculation at this point. Like gold, Bitcoin's value
comes from the fact that more and more people are interested in buying it.
Unlike stocks, it does not generate real money through dividends. For every
person that got rich with Bitcoin, some other unlucky guy will lose the very
same amount of money. When the bubble will burst, it will be zero sum game.

Index-based ETFs should be the way to go for casual investors. Put some money
in half-a-dozen index funds from the US, EU and Asia, and you'll get a low-
fee, relatively stable and 7% average yearly ROI.

~~~
creatornator
I'm not sure if this is true--in Wall Street, too, there is a seller for every
buyer. Every time someone gets a killer deal on some stock, someone else got
equally ripped off. As far as I can tell, the distinction between BTC and
stocks is trivial--the price of both is driven by supply and demand.

~~~
johnwheeler
The accounting isn’t zero sum with stocks in that capital is supposed to beget
more capital through value creation. That’s the intrinsic value of company
shares. So, while there might be a winner and a loser, the world still ends up
with more ‘wealth’.

~~~
AznHisoka
the IPO is supposed to work this way.

After the IPO, all bets are off. It's just traders, machines, and ego's
trading exchanging among each other.

Once upon a time, having a share of a company always meant you were getting a
share of their revenue (dividends). Now, it's primarily hoping there's a
bigger fool. Which 99% of the time there is because a lot of us put money into
the stock market without consciously investing (ie. 401ks)

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bsvalley
If I could predict the future I could come up with a very helpful answer to
your question. Unfortunately... ;)

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matchmike1313
I would probably lump my money in my existing Wealthfront account. I invest
<5% of my disposable income in various cryptocurrencies, I view them as
volatile commodities.

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dabockster
The thing to keep in mind is that if the Bitcoin bubble bursts, then Bitcoin
will go down for sure. However, the altcoins will probably recover for a year
or two after the crash. The most drastic thing that would happen is that all
the altcoins would be valued against something other than BTC, and the market
would adjust accordingly.

At the time of this writing, I have investments in BTC, LTC, XMR (Monero),
ARK, and RDD (ReddCoin). While BTC does represent around half of my total
crypto investment, I wouldn't be completely screwed since one of the alts
would probably take its place. I could see either Monero or one of the Bitcoin
forks taking over in that scenario.

So, answering the question, I'd still invest in crypto. But I wouldn't invest
in Bitcoin directly anymore.

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shepardrtc
Ripple. Its more stable and is being adopted by financial institutions (AMEX
being one of the biggest so far). I honestly think it'll be the first widely
used crypto. Its a little different from Bitcoin, but I think it'll do well in
the long run.

~~~
welikethepark
What are your thoughts re: Stellar? I'd personally rather see them succeed
than Ripple.

~~~
shepardrtc
The idea pitched for Stellar is very feel-good, but there are a number of
drawbacks. First of all, the creator is a little sketchy. The way he acted
when he bailed on Ripple and set up Stellar was very childish. Second, the
non-profit status is questionable. There are a lot of unknown people that
stand to gain a lot of money if the currency increases in value. They claim to
give away a lot of their currency, but very few people actually claim it, so
in the end, the company itself gets to claim it (and set the stage for a
profit down the road). They did get IBM to throw their name in to the mix, but
even IBM said this was temporary.

I don't know. I just don't get a good feeling from them.

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mancerayder
Related question: If the Bitcoin bubble bursts, will capital exit the
cryptocurrency space, taking other currencies down with it (my hunch) or will
another coin, ETH or Litecoin (or another), replace it?

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mdotk
Why has it gone from P2P payments to store of wealth now?

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odonnellryan
This is a good question. What value does BTC have? The value to make
purchases.

If the transaction cost keeps going up, well, that value diminishes, doesn't
it?

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boobsbr
Does anyone spend BTC? Seems like these upward spikes in value would incourage
people to buy and hold indefinitely.

~~~
djellybeans
I spent some of mine on hobby electronics parts the last time it was about
$400 per BTC. Not even mad. Just doing my part in the currency's use for
goods.

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vinchuco
When the tulip craze happened, where did people invest next? (not claiming
it's the same)

~~~
qbrass
Real estate.

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Merthurian
The dip.

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cvaidya1986
Augmented reality.

