

World population projections: Growing pains - tokenadult
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/05/world_population_projections

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Tichy
Does it make any sense at all to project 100 years into the future? Like
Nigeria, do you really keep growing from 150 to 750 million people in a linear
fashion?

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angstrom
I think all you have to do is look at predictions from 1900 to answer that a
resounding "No".

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harshpotatoes
The chart sort of makes sense based on my limited knowledge on population
growth, but two things pop out at me.

1) Can the US really continue to expect such growth over the next 100 years? I
was under the impression that the fertility rate of the united states was
below replacement levels (perhaps near 2?), and that the immigrant population
makes up the difference to bring our fertility rate above replacement levels
(ie growth). With many states bringing in anti-immigration bills, I could see
this possibly hurting US population growth.

2) Why does Brazil have an odd inflection point near 2050?

As to the main topic regarding Africa's population. I can't help but wonder if
a more natural solution will find itself. With some many countries predicted
to have a declining population, I can't help but think immigration will be the
solution to fill the probable labor shortages caused by declining populations
in nearby countries (China, India, Russia, according to the graph).

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nandemo
Apparently they made the graph by taking estimates for 2050 and 2010 and
connecting the dots. Hence, the odd inflection points for Brazil, India and
China. Note also the big caveat:

 _Such forecasts need to be taken with a bucketload of salt: tiny shifts in
today’s birth rate extrapolated over 90 years produce huge changes._

I guess most of the countries depicted in the graph won't exist in the same
form in 2100. I also wonder if it's possible to have another 90 years without
a nuclear bomb attack somewhere.

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checker
The data is interesting, but it's unfortunate that the article doesn't
specifically mention any of the 'pains' that the title is referring to.

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flashingleds
That graph is screaming out for a log scale.

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tybris
and for equalizing the Y-axes.

