
Contact-tracing apps are not a solution to the Covid-19 crisis - vinnyglennon
https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/inaccurate-and-insecure-why-contact-tracing-apps-could-be-a-disaster/
======
lazylizard
Since "Some countries such as Singapore, South Korea and Israel have enlisted
technology" , tell us how is it not working over there? There are real case
studies. No need to speculate.

~~~
redis_mlc
> Since "Some countries such as Singapore, South Korea and Israel have
> enlisted technology"

Testing and tracing works only if you're not already overwhelmed with infected
people.

The US received 100,000 airline passengers per week directly from China
(including Wuhan and Shanghai) from Dec. 10 to Jan. 31, then a stream
indirectly after that via Europe and Africa.

With millions of cases in the US and inadequate testing and tracing,
technology isn't going to be a magic bullet.

(Also, I believe the CDC wasted 6 weeks developing their own test that didn't
actually work. This is documented in detail in the Frontline episode about US
Patient Zero in Seattle.)

This time around, the US lost to Mother Nature, and our only hope is herd
immunity at this point.

~~~
blablabla123
> Testing and tracing works only if you're not already overwhelmed with
> infected people.

Which is basically the normal mode of operation for institutions like the CDC
or similar organizations in other countries like the RKI in Germany. In the
past this was a very successful approach to keep really nasty diseases in
check. I have read that both RKI and CDC had a difficult time to switch from
contact tracing singular clusters into pandemic mode.

> This time around, the US lost to Mother Nature, and our only hope is herd
> immunity at this point.

I wouldn't phrase it so negatively, there is a major pandemic every 100 years.
Everybody is still doing far better than at any previous similar event. Even
if things seem to devolve into chaos, that's nothing in comparison. Already
the fact of omnipresent real-time news probably makes a huge difference. Even
without optimal government interventions, people come up with their own
precautions.

~~~
redis_mlc
> I wouldn't phrase it so negatively

I said herd immunity in a positive way.

Since we don't have a vaccine, that's all we get this year.

~~~
blablabla123
If that would happen in any country, it would actually be quite bad because it
would mean hospitals would be over capacity for a long period of time.
Developing herd immunity in a controlled way, i.e. not DoS'ing hospital
capacity, would take far longer.

------
danlugo92
It was a solution in search of a government check.

