
Predicted market correct last 13 days in row - dynofuz
https://twitter.com/dynofuz?src=hnws
======
joezydeco
It's the old stock scam! Someone needs to create 2048 twitter accounts
(AAPL0001, AAPL0002, etc), then make half say "AAPL closes UP today!", the
other half say "Down".

Delete the incorrect accounts the next day and repeat for the next 7 days...
You'll have one account left at the end, but it'll be exactly right.

~~~
cylinder
Or you can just post both outcomes each day, then go back and delete the
incorrect one. 14 days later you've got a "perfect track record."

~~~
joezydeco
Oh true, I forgot this was twitter.

------
hannibal5
One way to put things in perspective is to compare against predictor that
always chooses the most frequent label (higher in this case).

dynofuz made 14 predictions, 13 correct (at least they claim so) and their
predictor agrees with majority label predictor 10/14 = 71% of the time. The
difference is just 3 correct predictions.

correction: 13 predictions, 10/13 = 77% same as majority label predictor.

~~~
dynofuz
the 14th prediction is for today. I didnt want to jump the gun and say it was
correct. I agree with the majority label issue you brought up. You'll just
have to keep an eye on it for when the market begins turning down.

~~~
hannibal5
You have graph from last 3 months in the site and you claim that "We've been
correct about 60% of the time." Getting it 10% better than coin toss in
upwards trending market is not that hard.

~~~
dynofuz
Yeah the 60%+ is over the last 2+yrs. 60% is really not as easy as you'd think
as it gives you a 20% edge 60% right - 40% wrong. Also my model's learning
everyday and over the last few weeks has been doing pretty well as you can
see. I'm working on an account system right now and will soon update the site
with some more disclosure about my predictions and historical accuracy.

------
jeanjq
What's the probability of correctly predicting HIGHER/LOWER 13 days in a row?

(1/2)^13 = 1/8192

