
Battery Pack Prices Fall As Market Ramps Up - howard941
https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-fall-as-market-ramps-up-with-market-average-at-156-kwh-in-2019/?sf113554299=1
======
Animats
As a rule of thumb, a 10x increase in production of something halves the
price. Purely through economies of scale. Much of what's been seen in lithium-
ion batteries is just that.

Has Tesla got their act together with their US "Gigafactory" in Nevada yet?
They had a lot of problems, most of them in plant management related to
starting up a big plant in an isolated area.[1] Plus feuding with
Panasonic.[2]

Eventually somebody will get this right, and there will be automated plants
with very few employees. This is the ideal situation for automation - making
huge numbers of identical products. It just takes a long time to get the
automation working.

A big problem in the US is that few people go into manufacturing engineering.
It's a big thing in China, but not in the US. Average pay for manufacturing
engineers is about $78K, according to Glassdoor. Senior level, maybe $82K.
This is for a job which today requires understanding real-time computer
control, electronics, mechanical engineering, and organizational behavior.

[1]
[https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2019/12/04/tesla-e...](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2019/12/04/tesla-
elon-musk-reno-gigafactory-theft-nevada-investigation-report/2610328001/)

[2] [https://electrek.co/2019/10/09/tesla-panasonic-
relationship-...](https://electrek.co/2019/10/09/tesla-panasonic-relationship-
hits-hard-times-tesla-make-own-batteries/)

~~~
mikorym
I am always surprised to hear how much programmers get paid in the US (third
world disclaimer: It's a lot!).

> Average pay for manufacturing engineers is about $78k

This is more on par with pay for (top) programmers or engineers that I know
of. In South Africa, actuaries get paid much more than programmers. From what
I have seen on HN, US based programmers (in top-ish companies) get paid
actuarial salaries. As a mathematician, I have a lot to say about actuaries,
but alas, that is for another day.

Maybe someone more knowledgeable can clarify this. Median pay at tech
companies is sometimes > $100k annually. In my view as a not-a-US-citizen,
that is a lot of money.

~~~
GuthL
Bear in mind you might not have the same way to report salaries. In France,
for instance, when employees report salary, they don't include the tax the
company pays for them. AFAIK, in the US, salaries are reported including them.
I still have a very hard time making apple to apple comparisons. If anyone has
a good methodology, please ping

~~~
Digory
In the US, salaries are not usually described including tax, are they?

When someone in the US says they make $100,000 per year, that is usually
exclusive of any tax paid by the company. It is also exclusive of other
benefits paid, with health insurance commonly being $10-20k paid by the
company, if provided. The employee is responsible for their own income tax.

There’s confusion because in the gig/entrepreneur/consultant world, people
will say they “make” $200,000 in business income. But then they bear taxes and
benefits out of that amount. So you may “make” more, but do worse than someone
who is an employee of a bigger company. That is why it takes a substantial
increase in income in the US to justify leaving a stable employer.

------
choeger
And we are not even close to the scale of an industry with world-wide
relevance. Semiconductors is a nearly 500billion$ industry for example. If
batteries reach 100billion$ we could probably expect prices well below
50$/kwh. That means you can put a sufficiently large powerwall into your home
for around the price of a new laptop. That in turn enables homeowners to
generate most of their energy needs themselves via (also cheap) pv arrays.
This technology has the chance to completely turn around the home energy
market.

~~~
stefan_
Oil is a $70 trillion industry and yet a barrel of crude is currently $60.

What does that mean? Nothing. You are just creating a faux correlation between
two prices with no justification.

~~~
cjohnson318
It currently costs about $10-12 million to drill and produce a well in West
Texas. The fact that a barrel of crude is only ~$60 is absolutely mind-
boggling.

~~~
toomuchtodo
The current crude price is due to a worldwide glut in the oil market along
with weakening demand growth, OPEC facing forces that are causing it to make
production missteps it has no choice but to make, and US shale having to pump
to service debt they've overextended themselves with.

Chesapeake Energy, previously an O&G industry darling, is struggling under $9
billion in crushing debt, and has made statements they may not be able to
continue as a going concern. At the same time, investors are not so interested
in overly optimistic and aggressive well depletion projections.

[https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec/opec-extends-
oil...](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec/opec-extends-oil-cut-to-
prop-up-prices-as-economy-weakens-idUSKCN1TW1LF) (OPEC extends oil cut to prop
up prices as economy weakens)

[https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-08/the-
wo...](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-08/the-world-s-oil-
glut-is-much-worse-than-it-looks) (The World’s Oil Glut Is Much Worse Than It
Looks)

~~~
tialaramex
It's not just the debt.

Climate concern means that instead of the choice being between selling your
oil for $1 today or hoping to get $2 tomorrow, now it's $1 today or get
lynched for pumping oil out of the ground tomorrow.

Worse, the producers don't know when exactly tomorrow is. Probably it's before
2050, but maybe it's before 2040. If enough people get scared it could be
sooner. This is one reason many in that industry actually supported global
carbon taxes. Having your entire industry phased out smoothly is a nice
predictable future. Sure, you'd rather continue to make money forever, but a
smooth exit is the next best thing.

Some readers have probably had garden leave, an employer terminates you but
pays you salary for a few months to stay home and not work - as an employee
you can't tell any secrets or work for someone else. It's unsatisfying, but
it's predictable, the mortgage gets paid. Much scarier to show up one morning
and find oh, the company went bankrupt, you won't get this month's pay and the
tax man hasn't received their cut for the last six months either. Same thing
with a gradually increasing system-side carbon tax. Using oil becomes
uneconomic, but gradually and predictably. The industry dies but the people
running it come out OK. We've opted for a world where it may all go very wrong
for them very quickly.

------
gok
In 2012 it was expected we'd be at $160/kWh by 2025[1]. Instead we're below
that by 2019. I wouldn't be surprised if that $100/kWh by 2023 prediction from
the source isn't too conservative.

[1] [https://www.mckinsey.com/business-
functions/sustainability/o...](https://www.mckinsey.com/business-
functions/sustainability/our-insights/battery-technology-charges-ahead)

~~~
woodandsteel
And once that happens, it is going to turn the auto industry upside down. Some
ice companies like VW realize this and are rushing like crazy to be ready when
it happens. The companies that aren't doing this today are likely going to go
bankrupt.

~~~
dangrossman
I don't think so. Things just don't move that fast in the auto industry. Each
car generation lasts 4-8 years. The average age of cars on the road right now
is 12 years old. It's taken 10 years to get to 2% EV market share in new
vehicle sales even with enormous subsidies. At $100/kWh, a car with 300 miles
of range will still have a $7500+ battery, which is too much for sub-$20K cars
to still be sub-$20K cars: unless every single auto maker abandons the low-end
of the market, someone's going to still be making gas cars for those buyers.
There won't be an electric car charger on every street and every parking spot
at every apartment building for decades at best, which means people without
their own garage to charge in will not be clamoring to switch to much less
convenient (for them) electric cars. People will still be buying and driving
gas cars and non-plugin hybrids for a very long time, no matter how fast
battery prices fall.

~~~
woodandsteel
I strongly disagree. One problem with your sub-20k market argument is that
battery prices are going to keep falling, so in a few more years ev sticker
prices are going to be equivalent. Another is that most sub-$20k manufacturers
make a large part of their income from more expensive cars, and so for that
reason will be in grave danger of bankruptcy.

As for chargers, the number is expanding rapidly, for a variety of reasons.
That means every year that goes buy there are more people who are in a
position to buy an ev.

Yes, ice's will keep selling, but the numbers will be going down which means
that the economies of scale that present manufacturers depend for profits will
no longer be there. They will also be stuck with fixed expenses. That means to
make a profit they will have to raise prices, which will just drive sales down
faster.

Also resale prices will plummet, which will give drivers more of a motivation
to buy an ev. Also governments concerned with climate change, which is
basically every large developed country besides Russia and the present US
federal administration, will be pushing ev's and punishing ice's (like is
already going on in China).

As for your point the auto industry moves slowly, that is why many companies
will go bankrupt.

------
opwieurposiu
I have bought a few used electric car batteries for diy solar projects on ebay
recently. I have paid $200-$250/kwh.

For example a Tesla Model S battery module, 24V, 250Ah,5.2kWh, Panasonic 18650
3200mAh cell is going for $1,045.00 + 150 shipping.

That is $229/kwh shipped. For most of these batteries you will also have to
buy a BMS and/or cell balancer.

~~~
madaxe_again
That’s pricey per kWh - lithium tech generally is. I’ve just installed an off-
grid solar system, and ended up putting together a spreadsheet of a whole
bunch of battery options, got prices per kWh, and then built in a factor for
lifetime/max cycles.

Ignoring max cycles, the cheapest lead acid I found was £87/kWh. Lifetime was
poor, however.

The best bang for buck was OPzS lead acid cells - £115 per kWh, and a long,
long lifetime and high cycle count. They’re the most commonly used cell in new
grid-scale solar installs, and it turns out there’s a reason for that - over
15 years, they cost less than 20% of lithium over the same period.

~~~
evandev
Where are you finding these OPzS cells?

~~~
madaxe_again
In Europe - I bought 24 BAE Secura 6 (900Ah at C100) cells from an outfit
called merkasol - they’re pretty commoditised and the prices are similar from
different distributors. Went for those as they were the biggest OPzS cells I
could safely carry by myself, at 60kg, and 42kwh of storage is plenty.

------
Ididntdothis
Let’s hope at the same time we are building up a corresponding recycling
infrastructure and products to be recycled easily. Otherwise I am afraid we
are building up another trash problem.

~~~
Tade0
There was no such problem with lead-acid batteries, so I don't there will ever
be with li-ion.

~~~
hueving
Well nobody tried to use lead-acid batteries for storage of anything on the
significance of grid base-load and replacing a huge chunk of transportation
energy capacity.

~~~
wongarsu
For decades we have used lead-acid batteries in close to every backup power
solution of any size, plus at least one lead-acid battery per vehicle. Of
course we expect lithium-ion to surpass lead-acid in market size and number of
deployed batteries, but the amount of lead-acid batteries in the world is
nothing to sneeze at either.

------
Lramseyer
This makes me wonder how falling battery prices will affect the cost of used
electric vehicles. On one hand, the replacement battery costs will go down,
and in turn should make for better resale value (since the replacement cost of
a wearable part is factored into the resale value.) But on the other hand,
auto companies (especially Tesla) have been passing that savings down to the
customer, leading to cheaper brand new prices of vehicles.

While it may appear on the surface that Tesla has not reduced their prices all
that much, keep in mind that the only current offering for the Model S is the
100KWh battery. The Model 3 prices have been incrementally decreasing, while
simultaneously standardizing features like autopilot, which used to be a $2K
upgrade.

~~~
tway009
Another problem is the fast pace of innovation.

Tesla aside, most electric vehicles will be outdated in 3-5 years (I say that
as an e-Golf owner/lessee) because the next generation of vehicles will be
much better. I think we're in the iPhone 3G phase and have a couple
iterations/generations of fast evolution ahead until the market stabilizes.

~~~
mikestew
We own one of the first Nissan Leafs off the line. When we're done with it, I
will happily _give_ it to someone (because resale on these is already next to
nothing) if it replaces their ICE car. And an old electric is something that I
theorize would be _perfect_ for the less wealthy. An old beater ICE has to be
more trouble and expense than on old EV with a usable battery. Even if it only
goes 40 miles in its old age, at least it will do those 40 miles _reliably_.

~~~
exhilaration
I'm curious, why are do used Leafs have such low resale value?

~~~
WorldMaker
The impression I have: The first couple generations of Leafs don't have active
battery temperature management and so far most Leafs that have entered the
secondary market have done so in part because of large battery capacity
reductions (necessitating in some of those cases battery replacements, which
so far used dealers haven't been willing to finance at scale, so instead pass
the "savings" to the next buyer).

As more Leafs show up with better managed battery lifetimes and/or as more
used dealers get comfortable with battery replacements (and that gets
subsequently cheaper as an industry), it may be likely that the Leaf loses its
reputation as a "loss" on the secondary markets and maybe regains some of its
resale value. (Especially now that current generations have more active
battery management.)

But the entire secondary market for EVs is overall confused, because there are
fewer EVs in the secondary market than should be. (The average first lifetime
of an EV is way ahead of ICE "norms" right now, with average EV first owners
keeping cars 7-10 years.) It may take used EV sales a while to better readjust
prices to the actual marginal utility of a used EV (in light of overall
reduced maintenance costs of a secondary EV lifetime versus ICE averages that
used dealers have had decades of information about).

~~~
m463
After comparing leaf vs tesla I've come to a different opinion. It's not
really battery temperature management, I think it's the small battery.

An older tesla with 250 miles range * 2000 cycles would have 500k mile
lifetime.

An older leaf, 75 miles range * 2000 cycles = 150k miles lifetime.

Also, charge percentage vs battery health. Telsa recommends keeping the
battery between 20 and 80% charge, and charging defaults to 80% (adjustable)

Leafs usually charge to 100% unless you poke around and find the 80% setting.

Note that keeping the leaf between 20 and 80% will give you about 45 miles
range (and you need to be a careful driver to get the EPA range).

So - The range will decrease on both cars, but for the leaf, the range will
decrease and cycling will increase in an accelerating fashion.

~~~
WorldMaker
I definitely understand there is a snowball effect in place, but battery
research (and as one example, GM's field testing) makes it pretty clear that
degeneration occurs much faster when the Lithium-based batteries are used out
of operating temperatures, and that appears to be reflected in Leaf used sales
(areas prone to more extreme temperature ranges have worse used Leafs).

It's not entirely a fair apples-to-apples comparison, but GM's Volt has
generally worse range as comparable Leafs at each early generation, and Volts
are showing much less battery degradation when compared. (Certainly you may
argue that the range extender of the Volt will bring down cycle counts, but
even just comparing electric miles to electric miles the Volt is still
outperforming the Leaf on battery degradation.)

As for the 20%/80& thing, that is something that for instance GM's tech
actively manages and just bases its outputs as if the ~80% was "full" to avoid
consumer confusion. The issue there is not that charge percentage matters,
according to battery industry standards, but that individual cells have a
"directionality" that should be respected and a discharging cell never used to
charge until it has 100% discharged and vice versa. With regenerative breaking
it is useful to have cells always available "in the charging direction". It is
interesting that GM and Tesla took different approaches in marketing that to
car users.

~~~
m463
I read the worst degradation was at high temperature combined with high state
of charge.

But yeah, don't buy a leaf from dubai or phoenix:

[http://www.electricvehiclewiki.com/wiki/battery-capacity-
los...](http://www.electricvehiclewiki.com/wiki/battery-capacity-loss/)

Looking at the volt, it seems to battery thermal management plus it only uses
65% of the battery capacity (similar to the 20%..80% tesla recommendation). I
guess they can manage the battery capacity conservatively when there's a gas
motor available.

------
JimmyRuska
Laptop batteries can still be premium item. Especially Dell. If you don't buy
a business class laptop, it's very likely you cannot order the battery online.
You have to call dell support. Dell support is an India call center that will
ask for $70 for a shipping label so you can send the machine in to get
diagnosed, even if the bios is saying battery health is poor and you don't
need a diagnosis. They refuse to just sell you a new battery from the phone or
online. They refuse to give you a cost estimate because they want you to have
sunk cost before they give an expensive quote. You send in the machine and
it's $60 for battery and $80 for servicing. Aliexpress has the batteries for
$20 but there's horror stories about exploding batteries. You can easily pay
$200/yr if you want to keep your machines at 50% charge or better. Be sure to
see how easy it is to switch a battery before buying a new laptop.

~~~
novok
How about third party repair people like louis rossman? They will probably do
it for the proper price and not give you bullshit.

------
gilead2297
If there is anyone on here who works in the battery production, EV, or utility
industries, can you comment on exactly what is driving the dramatic cost/kWh
declines? Every article I've read seems to imply that the cost declines are
just being driven by economies of scale (massive fixed costs of plant
construction being averaged out over large production runs) and learning
economies ([https://rameznaam.com/2014/09/30/the-learning-curve-for-
ener...](https://rameznaam.com/2014/09/30/the-learning-curve-for-energy-
storage/)). Apart from these two forces, are there any innovations in
manufacturing processes or product components+architecture that are partly
responsible for the decline?

Edit: grammar.

~~~
ZeroGravitas
There was a paper that analysed the source of PV cost declines. Would be
interesting to see the same for batteries:

Evaluating the causes of cost reduction in photovoltaic modules

[https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2891516](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2891516)

------
AtlasBarfed
Has cost-effective density improvements stalled?

The last really significant announcement out of the main Tesla university
research group was in cycles lifetime.

The suggested range of many Tesla forthcoming models (truck, roadster2) seem
to assume a chemistry improvement, as well as other future announcements by
less experienced (in EV) manufacturers.

I personally speculate that the Nurburgring Model S prototype beat the Porsche
using a substantially lighter battery to get its 20 second advantage, but I
have no confirmation on that.

~~~
jsight
Its all relative... the Model 3 battery is significantly more energy dense
than the Model S battery and appears to be lighter weight. How much of this is
packaging (2170 vs 18650 form factors) vs chemistry improvements is really
hard to know. It is widely believed that the Model S prototype was using a
much larger battery with 2170 cells and likely at either the same or a
somewhat lower weight than the previous Model S.

The truck has the benefit of being tall, so the pack is multilevel. The
roadster will use at least two levels as well as it has a very thick pack, and
obviously at its price point they can afford to use the absolute highest
density cells on the market.

~~~
xiphias2
Tesla managed to halven the relative cobalt content in each iteration
(Roadster -> Model S -> Model 3), and Elon hinted that Tesla wants to go
Cobalt free, as it’s an expensive conflict mineral.

------
tehjoker
This is great news. Still, we must end support for the coup in Bolivia that is
in part driven by international hunger for lithium.

~~~
9HZZRfNlpR
That is stupid conspiracy theory, lithium is cheap. Cobalt is what makes the
price, so keep an eye on Congo. But done if the social problems thanks to
Cobalt are already welly known there.

------
ericvanular
Awesome news, storage is so crucial to decarbonization. Some really
interesting emerging energy storage tech has been presented and discussed over
at [https://collective.energy](https://collective.energy) if this kind of
stuff interests you

~~~
AtlasBarfed
[https://investors-corner.bnpparibas-am.com/investment-
themes...](https://investors-corner.bnpparibas-am.com/investment-
themes/sri/petrol-eroci-petroleum-age/)

That aligns with my theory that since all the easily extracted oil has been
exploited, the oil industry is saddled with a price floor, and once
alternatives beat that, the oil industry will rapidly collapse as supply is
more expensive than alternatives, and oil won't have any way to profitably
compete.

~~~
Gibbon1
If you look at the energy return on investment over time, it's something like
125:1 in 1920. Dropped into 25:1 in 1970. Now at less than 15:1 maybe lower.

------
anon1m0us
This has not been my experience as a consumer trying to buy 18650 batteries
for my 3.3V ESP-8266 projects. Is there a good place to buy these? Searching
Amazon for them shows me tons of AA and AAA batteries but no actual 18650's.
In the past couple years, the price has gone up for me and the availability
down.

Are there better options? I've read about 26650's but I have never tried them.
Do they last longer? Are they safer? Can I charge them in my NiteCore charger
that works great for 18650's?

How can a consumer/tinkerer wanting to scale up production take advantage of
these options? The prices may have gone down at Tesla scale, but not at
consumer scale.

~~~
ripexz
Wild guess here but maybe those specific types of batteries went up due to
popularity of vaping as they're standard in most mods.

~~~
cududa
I mean, people at first scoffed at the idea of GPU prices rising in 2013 and
2017/18 due to crypto mining (both times!)

------
smh58
Yet somehow AA and AAA battery prices remain constant through generations.

~~~
myself248
Anyone still using non-rechargeable AA's and AAA's deserves it.

~~~
SigmundA
Sorry I have tried to get off them but for infrequently used devices they are
much better, they can be stored for long periods and are still good,
rechargeable will self discharge and be dead when you go to use and probably
wont recharge anymore. Rechargeables require a float charge if being stored.

I just replaced a 9v in my infrared thermometer that finally died after 4
years...

~~~
ericd
That's not true anymore, the new nimh cells like Panasonic eneloops can sit on
a shelf for 10+ years and have most of their charge left (70% after 10 years
according to their packaging).

------
1-6
Better personal transportation devices, warm coats, extra-long battery life on
all electronics. I sense a nomadic lifestyle for everyone.

~~~
readhn
excellent point! and falling real estate prices - people will distribute out
of the cities in search of lower land prices and "cleaner" life style.

------
m0zg
Semi-relevant question: there are many battery-based "generators" up to 500Wh
on Amazon. Are there any in the 1.5-2KWh range? We often get outages during
winter and it'd be good to have something that could drive a furnace for a day
or so.

------
uoaei
The situation in Bolivia probably had a significant effect.

There's lots of lithium mines there. The new (read: coup) government knows
this I'm sure and is looking to get rich off of it at the expense of the
indigenous population.

~~~
sek
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_lithium_p...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_lithium_production)

Right now Bolivia only has huge reserves. You also have to be able to extract
it efficiently.

Look at Venezuela, their reserves are huge but their oil is much more
difficult to extract.

Also the lithium market is complex, there are many different grades. The
impact of raw lithium price on battery prices are just ~30%.

So the current political situation has probably no effect at all.

~~~
uoaei
Ah, I was mistaken. I thought they were extracting it.

------
subject117
Besides more electric cars, what else could we expect from “electrification”?

~~~
WorldMaker
Potentially more decentralized or at least time-smoothed electric grids. More
batteries can mean greater independence between production means and
consumption time. (The obvious case is better time shifting of things like
wind or solar power.)

~~~
layoric
"time-smoothed electric grids". Exactly, this is actually where Lithium
batteries make the most sense, especially with solar. It isn't to provide 100%
backup output at a grid/utility scale but to make output more consistent when
it comes to voltage variance and output. Time shifting power output even by
minutes via storage combined with solar forecasting (disclaimer: I work for a
solar forecasting company), from what I can tell, can remove a large chunk of
uncertainty. The better the forecasting, the smaller the battery can be whilst
maintaining low levels of uncertainty.

Grid scale "backup" via Lithium batteries IMO, doesn't make any sense.
Generating hydrogen from excess power for grid scale generation actually does
make sense. As power generation gets cheaper still and the "now" value of it
also becomes less, I think it will make financial sense to locally "bank"
energy in the form of hydrogen for versatile use during peak times where grids
are overloaded with renewable energy (and wholesale price is 0 or negative
which is common quite often in some networks).

------
readhn
This is interesting times we live in.

True Energy independence could turn world politics upside down.

The only solution for big oil to survive is to take over big battery business.
Interesting what they will come up with!

~~~
aphextron
>True Energy independence could turn world politics upside down.

We have true energy independence in the US. And it _has_ turned world politics
upside down. Fracking and LNG has made the US a net energy exporter over the
last 10 years.

~~~
readhn
US is not whole world. It will be interesting to see when smaller nations
(outside of G8) become truly energy independent. THAT will turn everything
upside down once more.

------
jupp0r
No mention of Lithium and Cobalt rare earth mining. Are these resources
abundant enough to support this ramp up without counter balancing economics of
scale savings?

------
frankus
If this scales down to under a kilowatt-hour it means even a large
ebike/scooter/etc. pack could move to double-digit US dollars in the next few
years.

~~~
StudentStuff
Most eBike batteries are half to 3/4ths a kilowatt hour, though if prices were
lower you'd almost certainly see 1kwh & 2kwh batteries becoming standard.

The market is already headed this way, EM3ev keeps putting out larger and
larger packs at the same price points year after year.

------
jacquesm
Consider that I paid $US 7500 for a 48KWh lead-acid battery pack not that long
ago, this is a very impressive development.

------
dang
Url changed from [https://www.utilitydive.com/news/battery-prices-fall-
nearly-...](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/battery-prices-fall-
nearly-50-in-3-years-spurring-more-electrification-b/568363/), which points to
this.

------
batterystd
Tangential but I hope some standards body would at least standardize phone
batteries. Maybe 10 different sizes going by lbh? Right now every single phone
has it's own specific battery.

~~~
minhazm
To what benefit? Companies make their own batteries so they can fit exactly
how much they want/need. The real estate in a phone is very valuable and even
a few percent difference in the battery size can be enough to impact what
other components they put in.

------
deepsun
By 2030, dollar inflation can easily make $100 battery to cost $60 alone.

~~~
mediaman
Deflation would result in lower nominal prices, not inflation.

~~~
deepsun
My mistake, thank you.

------
colechristensen
What happens when that much energy is so cheap and every home has what amounts
to a sizable bomb inside?

There will sure be plenty of them which aren't actually certified and the
failure rate of any consumer product is never zero.

How are the positives of a distributed storage grid offset by the negatives of
the technologies?

~~~
jackweirdy
You can disconnect the other sizeable bomb - gas

[https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/bristol-
hous...](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/bristol-house-gas-
explosion-trampoline-woman-injuries-burn-a8794726.html)

[https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-
suffolk-48190598](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-48190598)

[https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/27/man-
killed-e...](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/27/man-killed-
explosion-house-collapse-andover-hampshire)

[https://www.theguardian.com/uk-
news/2016/apr/06/birmingham-h...](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-
news/2016/apr/06/birmingham-house-destroyed-by-gas-explosion)

[https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/house-
de...](https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/house-
destroyed-3-injured-huge-14023006)

~~~
colechristensen
You probably couldn't though.

Gas is fairly clean energy, and many of the inefficiencies of electricity
distribution don't apply.

It will be quite a long while before people in cold climates who need to heat
their homes would switch to all electric or have anything close to local
generation capable of heating their homes.

~~~
audunw
> You probably couldn't though.

Well, you clearly can. Norway hasn't used gas. At home people have used mostly
electric heaters and wood. They're now switching out oil burning furnaces and
wood burning furnaces in many areas with heat pumps.

Sweden is burning trash for electricity and piping heat from those powerplants
to nearby areas.

In most areas you'd need cheaper electricity, and heat pumps should be cheaper
as well. But it's definitely possible.

~~~
colechristensen
Norway is 99% hydroelectric because of geography and low population. Sweden is
40% hydro, 40% nuclear.

In neither are renewables used in significantly large ways (maybe excepting
the few percent of Swedish trash burning) that are applicable to the rest of
the world.

