
Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Decades - makerofspoons
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/akzn5a/theoretical-physicists-say-90-chance-of-societal-collapse-within-several-decades
======
eindiran
The original paper is here:
[https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63657-6](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63657-6)

I disagree with their approach and conclusion ("Deforestation will continue
accelerating at the same rate forever! Technology will continue accelerating
at the same rate forever! Population growth will continue at the same rate
forever!"), which strikes me as being misguided in a classically Malthusian
way. But the paper is worth taking a look at, as there is an interesting
discussion of the Fermi paradox, where we lie on the Kardashev scale, and the
possibility that societal collapse due to overconsumption of resources is the
Great Filter[0].

[0]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter)

~~~
monkeydreams
The problems with the Fermi Paradox are so foundational that using it as the
basis of any assumption about the distribution of extra-terrestrial life, let
alone extra-terrestrial intelligence, is futile. We just don't know what other
life will look like, where it will live, on what timescale it operates, or,
well, anything. And this is before we then take into account the changes that
intelligence will wrought. An advanced, intelligent race could appear as
nearly, literally anything it chooses.

We are basing these ideas of Great Filters, Dark Forests, etc on the idea that
the universe is apparently empty. It could be obviously teeming with life that
we are unable to see because it operates outside of our lifespans and
contexts. They might have noticed that Earth has recently developed a
petroleum and concrete surface scum and are frantically (for their frame of
reference) inquiring as to whether Earth is OK or if it has a disease.

------
tqi
Why is it that physicists, along with economists, seem to be especially prone
to ultracrepidarianism?

~~~
throwawaysea
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultracrepidarianism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultracrepidarianism)

> Ultracrepidarianism is the habit of giving opinions and advice on matters
> outside of one's knowledge.

------
eli_gottlieb
That's a clickbait title if I ever saw one, and the actual paper is not much
better. Flagged.

------
gandalfian
Two of them.

------
curation
I say there is a 100% chance that the epoch of Empire is over.

------
bsd44
So how come they didn't publish this in February?

~~~
tolbish
The paper was received in November and published in May. The peer-review
process usually takes at least months before a paper is published.

------
ncmncm
When even the theoretical physicists are sounding the alarm, it is past time
to pay attention.

~~~
themonoid
The physicists in the article are trying to predict the behavior of Earth, by
modeling it as a simple forest, and then adding some secondary terms to
account for technology with the potential to improve humanity's access to
energy. [https://xkcd.com/793/](https://xkcd.com/793/)

