
How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops - edward
https://medium.com/@Sam_Floy/how-to-know-if-where-you-live-is-up-and-coming-fried-chicken-vs-coffee-shops-546080119f98
======
smikhanov
A more interesting indicator that authors may consider is how many people
living in the area do jogging.

When I moved to London's SE4 postcode three years ago (it's pretty close to
Peckham, FWIW), the regeneration of the area has just started and the more
middle-class looking people appeared around, the more men and women in running
gear were visible in the streets in the morning. Poor on average take worse
care of their health and fitness, so tapping into Runkeeper's data may prove
useful.

In the meanwhile, during these three years, the value of my home grew more
than 100%.

~~~
WildUtah
Jogging, fried chicken, and coffee shops.

Yup. You'd be paying fines and penalties if you posted this from the USA. I
doubt there'd be criminal prosecution under 42 USC unless you repeatedly
continued posting this kind of content after warnings, but that is not legal
advice.

It's illegal for anyone involved in the housing or real estate industries to
propagate racist information. Also it's illegal to advocate racist opinions
about housing policy in public discussions.

And jogging is just as obvious as fried chicken and coffee shops.

~~~
drdeca
Wait,

What?

There is a law against giving racist real estate advice?

That, isn't actually true, is it? You are joking?

Is that actually true?!

~~~
nsxwolf
I know that my wife isn't allowed to answer the question "Are the schools good
here?" with anything other than "This home is in school district 123", or
"you'll have to do your own research". It's considered "steering". (Because
Good Schools is considered a dog whistle for "white neighborhood")

~~~
dragonwriter
The policies enforced by particular offices (often based on an excess of
caution, and often based on mythology of law rather than actual legal advice)
are a different thing than the law. It absolutely is _not_ illegal to provide
answers to that question more directly when selling real estate (and, in fact,
most agents I've dealt with or encountered will, though rather than providing
their opinion they will rather directly provide statistical data which answers
that question -- and others -- with comparative information; the package I got
from the agent for the last house I considered buying included not only school
performance information for the neighborhood compared to other areas in the
region, but also income information, family size information, and other
demographics.)

Providing a bare and unsupported simple subjective "good" or "bad" answer is
probably more legally dangerous than providing factual information, _not_
because "good schools" is dog whistle for "white neighborhood" (in fact, its
neither illegal nor uncommon to provide factual information which fairly
directly gives information about ethnic/racial demographics), but because
someone else might convince a court that your description was slanted because
you were trying to steer the buyer based on _your_ perception of _their_
racial fit, rather than trying to provide them factual information about the
existing character of the neighborhood which might be relevant to their
decision.

~~~
protomyth
"It absolutely is not illegal to provide answers to that question more
directly when selling real estate"

As applied in the US (not the original article, but I suspect where nsxwolf is
talking about), the Federal Fair Housing Act (Title VIII of the Civil Rights
Act of 1968) would prohibit certain questions from being answered.

[http://www.jmls.edu/clinics/fairhousing/pdf/fair-housing-
pri...](http://www.jmls.edu/clinics/fairhousing/pdf/fair-housing-primer.pdf)

~~~
dragonwriter
> As applied in the US (not the original article, but I suspect where nsxwolf
> is talking about), the Federal Fair Housing Act (Title VIII of the Civil
> Rights Act of 1968) would prohibit certain questions from being answered.

I can't find anything in your source to support that claim that answering
questions would be prohibited, in fact, it seems to directly contradict the
claim about merely providing an opinion on school quality being prohibited as
steering (p. 12, "Racial steering is where a real estate agent steers white
persons to one community or area and minorities to another community or area.
[...] The Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals has held the proof of a
discriminatory motive is required in a steering case.")

~~~
protomyth
It comes under the racial steering section

~~~
dragonwriter
> It comes under the racial steering section

The racial steering section does not support the claim that answering
questions is prohibited (in fact, it specifically _as I quoted_ identifies
that courts have held that proof of discriminatory motive is required in
steering cases.)

~~~
protomyth
"9\. Many of my clients ask me questions about the neighborhood, such as: “Who
lives here? Are there any [fill in ethnic/racial group]?” How should I respond
to questions like these?

Let your clients know that you cannot provide information on racial, ethnic or
other protected class demographics under the fair housing laws, which prohibit
discrimination based on such factors. Consider giving all of your clients a
written statement about your commitment to fair housing when you first start
working with them. This statement also can let clients know what services you
can provide them and what information they’ll need to find out on their own.
When you discuss your commitment to fair housing early on, your clients may be
less likely to express their possible biases. Many agents give a resource
packet to all clients at the first meeting. The packet provides a broad range
of information, including online resources to locate up-to-date neighborhood
census information, community resources, local media, etc. By providing
general information to all of your clients, you make it easier for them to
find the perfect home. See Appendix B for some area resources for home buyers
to include in your own packet. For your own protection, make sure you document
any specific requests from your prospects and clients that you feel may have
fair housing implications. Keep a record in your files of both the request and
your response."

[http://www.kingcounty.gov/~/media/exec/civilrights/documents...](http://www.kingcounty.gov/~/media/exec/civilrights/documents/100QsRE.ashx?la=en)

------
Xophmeister
There's no justification for the assumption of a high coffee-to-chicken ratio
implying up-and-coming. It's not an unreasonable assumption, but it's
definitely anecdotal.

~~~
ubernostrum
It's anecdotal, but enough reliable anecdotes do actually turn into "data".

My personal marker has always been, when visiting a city for the first time,
to pay attention to the roadside advertisements I see on the ride from the
airport to the city center.

Aside from obvious things like payday/title loan shops, the most reliable
indicator I've seen of a neighborhood being badly off is ads for cheap
dentures and dental implants.

~~~
amyjess
For me, check cashing shops are a _huge_ sign I'm in a poor neighborhood.

Businesses with signs in Spanish is another, though that's probably specific
to Texas and the southwest, since we have a _lot_ of poor Hispanic
neighborhoods here. Unfortunately, the Hispanic neighborhoods here are almost
universally poor. You go farther north, there probably won't be many Hispanic
neighborhoods at all.

Put them together, and seeing "Cambiamos Cheques" is a huge red flag.

~~~
scarecrowbob
Your experience here is a bit anecdotal and might say a bit about what your
frame of reference for what it means to be "hispanic".

But of course, I don't know you, so feel free to ignore my point :D

However, if you walk around the (objectively affluent) La Cantera mall in San
Antonio, you'll hear maybe 1/3 of the conversations in Spanish.

About 30% of the folks in Texas speak Spanish, so if you're in Texas you're in
a hispanic area by definition....what you're describing are areas where people
are or aren't willing to pander to folks who aren't bilingual.

I don't know if that describes a line between affluence and poverty though.
It's possible, though I'm not sure if I believe it.

~~~
pdeuchler
As someone who lived in florida, those affluent hispanic areas don't have
billboards in spanish. Billboards in spanish signal a large amount of single-
language homes, and when that single language isn't the native tongue it
doesn't bode well for socio-economic prospects

------
huskyr
We made this (Dutch) dataviz a couple of months ago about the gentrification
of Amsterdam, and indeed, the number of yoga studios and coffee bars closely
resembled the gentrificated areas:

[http://www.volkskrant.nl/amsterdam](http://www.volkskrant.nl/amsterdam)

------
JackFr
This analysis is simplistic and flawed.

It asserts a correlation between the fried chicken/coffee shop ratio index and
home price, which is reasonable enough. It then assumes that homes that are
undervalued vis-a-vis their implied value by the FC/CS index are up and
coming. This likely makes sense in an environment of overall rising house
prices. However if house prices are falling or stagnant overall it may be the
coffee shops which are lagging the market.

~~~
thanatropism
The Fritsch-Waugh-Lovell theorem: if

y = a _x + b_ y + c _z + (zero-mean nuisance),

I can estimate a least-squares model of the form

y' = a_x + b*y + (zero-mean nuisance)

and get a correct estimate of b, as long as y and z are uncorrelated.

(Where this breaks down: for example, a regression of IQ on age and arm
length; omit age and you'll get longer arms (older kids) producing higher IQ
scores, because age and arm length are correlated.)

------
angdis
My "rule-of-thumb" indicator: whether or not there are a lot of check-cashing,
bail-bond and furniture rental establishments.

~~~
Implicated
Same principle applies to 'big chain' type retailers and such. If the local
grocery stores aren't large regional chain stores... likely not a good area.

~~~
nemo44x
What does "likely not a good area" mean? In NYC there are plenty of "nice
areas" that don't have major chain stores. In many cities this is the case.

I grow tired of the underlying racism people exhibit (such as yours) without
even being aware of it. You're probably not a blatant racist but I think a lot
of people from mainstream white culture need to start inspecting and
criticizing their view of the world a bit more.

There are a lot of good people living in what you call "not a good area".

~~~
defen
> What does "likely not a good area" mean

Street crime (muggings / random unprovoked assaults); petty vandalism;
burglary; schools where your kid will get beat up for exhibiting the slightest
amount of intellectual curiosity or non-standard behaviors / appearance.

------
mhax
"Not many outlets selling fried chicken"... in Peckham?? I'm not sure the
authors data is all that accurate.

~~~
jfg
Yeah, looking at the Google maps location of chicken shops in Peckham brings
up only about half the shops that are actually there.

~~~
macNchz
Not sure where the data for the article came from, but I'd guess that there is
some interesting socioeconomic skewing around the type of business and whether
it can be readily found on Google maps or Yelp, since much of the data is
crowdsourced.

~~~
sfloy
True... the data came from Google Maps API and so maybe be a little incomplete
compared to what's actually on the street at this moment

------
TeMPOraL
Well, China is definitely not an "up and coming" country. I've been here like
a week and I already don't want to ever look at chicken in my life again.

~~~
Zigurd
Be gentle but firm if the locals keep trying to feed you pizza and fried
chicken. Food in China is awesome. Ask to go where the people you are visiting
eat lunch normally.

~~~
UIZealot
(Restaurant) Food in China is terrible! The bigger the city you are in, the
more so. You probably like it because you're not used to the taste of MSG
which is used freely and generously in China to cover up stale ingredients.
Having eaten out daily in Shanghai and Guangzhou for a few years, I got pretty
sick of it.

~~~
mesozoic
I just started using MSG at home are you saying it will eventually stop making
everything taste better?

~~~
TeMPOraL
Could any of you please tell what's MSG?

~~~
mesozoic
Monosodium glutamate you can get it in a powder like salt. It is a seasoning
that provides "the essence of flavor" or umami flavoring which makes lots of
bland stuff taste way better without necessarily having lots of salt. Some
claim it is bad for the health or causes MSG symptom complex with an array of
common conditions like headaches but there's little to no scientific evidence
that this isn't psychosomatic.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monosodium_glutamate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monosodium_glutamate)

~~~
TeMPOraL
Oh so that's the powder that guy on the street is adding when preparing my
meal... Thanks. I didn't know about it before.

~~~
Zigurd
Street food can be good but it's pretty much the digestive equivalent of
hitting the double black diamonds at a new ski area on the first day.

------
acgourley
Wouldn't you want an area with both? I may be missing the context of London's
culture - but if 'up and coming' means 'being gentrified' wouldn't you want to
pick an area that has a barbell distribution of upper class and lower class
establishments?

~~~
toyg
Worst: some areas are very coffee-dense only because they're close to large
transportation hubs, which usually don't make for great areas. Chicken shops
gravitate towards entertainment areas, which may or may not be "up and
coming".

------
some1else
Peckham might be considered up and coming, but it doesn't look like much :-S

[https://www.google.com/maps/@51.4739728,-0.067718,3a,75y,268...](https://www.google.com/maps/@51.4739728,-0.067718,3a,75y,268.12h,90t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sCHT_LXgTtm5UYhcUDCg_uA!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo0.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3DCHT_LXgTtm5UYhcUDCg_uA%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D194.82999%26pitch%3D0!7i13312!8i6656!6m1!1e1)

~~~
octo_t
How can you say that when there's an Armani shop right in there on the
streetview!

------
dec0dedab0de
This was kind of interesting, I like the idea of using data like this, you
could probably get the same results with yoga studios and cash4gold's.

That being said I want coffee and fried chicken now.

------
SixSigma
I would say that "coffee" = daytime activity and "chicken" = night time
activity.

What a data scientist would have done is find the list of shops and property
prices and see which correlate.

Of course, you also need to do it over time because "up and coming" implies
the future state, not the current.

1\. Buy cheap housing in area that attracts new grads / creatives / artists

2\. Those people attract certain business types

3\. Hot area attracts richer people + people in 1 get more money

4\. Property prices rise

5\. Sell

------
Shivetya
So besides "chicken shops" which must be a regional indicator for poor or
undesirable what other establishments are also present? There should be an
obvious transition type of business that precedes the coffee shop. Combined
with chicken shops perhaps the availability of different businesses could give
entrepreneurs an indicator where to set up similar or buy up space?

~~~
elcct
Pawnshops, payday loan services, barber shops... And pubs closed down, because
it is too dangerous for them to operate. Also signs on restaurants "Customer
only toilets"

~~~
SpaghettiCat
Why barber shops? Don't well-to-do people also go to the barber to get their
hair cut?

~~~
somedudethere
Most have the barber come to them or have a private barber in the building. My
office has a separate room and a barber comes in every other week to cut hair.

~~~
ghaff
Seriously? That is certainly not anything approaching the norm in the US.

------
swalsh
As a lover of fried chicken, i'm not sure this is the right metric to use for
my housing search.

------
onion2k
You put a fried chicken shop in a place where lots of people go while you put
a coffee shop in places where there are few coffee shops. I'm sure that
correlates with 'up and coming', but it's not necessarily a signature. Some up
and coming places will have neither.

~~~
coldtea
> _You put a fried chicken shop in a place where lots of people go_

I think the idea of the article is that you put one in a place where lots of
the "wrong people" go.

E.g. that "up and coming" urban professionals et al, don't go much for "fried
chicken" \-- as I understand in the US it's associated with rednecks, blacks,
and the poor? (as opposed to Starbucks or Whole Foods).

~~~
ubernostrum
Yes, fried chicken is stereotypically a southern-US (poor part of the country,
for a variety of historical reasons) and even more stereotypically African-
American (poor segment of the population, similarly due to all sorts of
historical issues from slavery to overt discrimination to more recent covert
discrimination). Which means that fast-food restaurants specializing in fried
chicken are a pretty strong economic marker.

On the flip side, coffeeshops have a connotation of being more a middle-class
thing. So tracking coffeeshops vs. fried chicken would be a very obvious way
to map affluence in the US.

~~~
coldtea
In fact it sounds like a good premise for a Key and Peele sketch.

------
analyst74
He seems to be measuring current housing prices, but if his goal is to measure
"up and coming" areas, shouldn't he try to correlate between ratio of fried
chicken vs coffee shops in PREVIOUS years, and change of prices in the
following years?

~~~
mariodiana
I'm thinking that coffee shops are not a leading indicator, which is what he
should be looking for. I have no idea what would be leading indicator for up
and coming neighborhoods though.

------
sotoer
Another "up and coming"-ness indicator is the abundance of white guys walking
around the neighborhood wearing small shorts.

------
thinksocrates
This would not be an effective method for the Southern USA. Nashville, which
is most certainly up and coming, is also springing up "Hot Chicken" shacks
left and right in the hippest areas.

------
aembleton
Where did you get the data on coffee shops and chicken shops from?

~~~
aembleton
I've just realised that this wasn't a `Show HN` so the submitter and the
author may well be different people. I've left a comment on the medium
article.

The reason I ask is that I recently purchased a house in Manchester and as
part of that collected as much data as possible on things like crime stats,
walking time to nearest reailway station, cycling time to work, etc. I didn't
get data on coffee or chicken shops. I did consider it, and would have pulled
it from OSM but that data is very incomplete with regards to this sort of
data.

~~~
rezistik
Couldn't you use like, Google Maps?

~~~
aembleton
I don't know. Is there a way in the API of requesting all coffee shops?

~~~
dagw
yup. [https://developers.google.com/places/web-
service/](https://developers.google.com/places/web-service/)

------
EMRo
I would love to build/use an app that generates RE investment market
suggestions based on some of the datapoints you're mentioning. Maybe see if
there's some way to automate the analysis of socioeconomic status of the
neighborhood with the distribution of various types of businesses and then map
price/price delta over time. Might be some cool data in there. Re racism
comments...kinda.

------
timwaagh
the theory is worth very little. you could identify two other random density
factors (like cigarette butts and chelsea fans) and come up with some heatmap
to identify the best value houses. only time-series data could give some
indication and then you would still have to test it (and then the market would
price in your findings shortly after they are published. this kind of
arbitrage rarely lasts long).

~~~
lujim
I don't think those are random density factors. I don't believe that darts
were thrown at a wall with words written on them and they landed on "Coffee
Shops" and "Fried Chicken". I think the analysis started with the assumption
that Coffee shops would be found in nicer areas and Fried Chicken would be
found in rougher areas. Then the analysis was started to evaluate that
hypothesis. It's OK that areas of with different economic conditions may have
different types of businesses. Buying a house next to a check cashing shop or
a pay day lender will nearly 100% guarantee you aren't living in the best
neighborhood.

------
batuhanicoz
In Istanbul, this also holds true. But you would need to switch "friend
chicken" to "tavuk döner" (chicken döner) or to kebab places.

Looking for places that's gonna be "elite"? Switch coffee shops with third
wave coffee shops. At least in Istanbul.

------
sarreph
I don't necessarily agree with the premise of this article, as many other
commenters point out.

To offer an alternative, my own theory is that the 'up and coming' areas are
cropping up down the _Shoreditch fringe_ , i.e. Borough (which is seeing a lot
of commercial and residential development, and Elephant & Castle (same as
Borough, albeit more behind in completion). Such a 'fringe' also spills off
into the East, too.

You could extrapolate this trend to Peckham, one of the primary areas the
author has highlighted, however I doubt we're going to get anywhere near same
level of 'pop-up' commerce/entertainment in these much more southernly areas
for some time to come indeed.

~~~
dabeeeenster
Property in Borough would be insanely expensive compared to Peckham...

------
chishaku
I was thinking about yoga studios as a proxy for this type of analysis the
other day.

------
WorldMaker
Clearly this analysis would be a flawed approach to take for the American
South. Especially given that right now "hot chicken" places are a hipster fad
for the "up and coming" neighborhoods.

------
logfromblammo
In the U.S., a leading indicator of future development in suburban or rural
areas is often the self-storage business. They are often built out in the
middle of nowhere when land is cheap, and continue operating as other
businesses are built nearby.

Many of them are owned by large REITs that are speculating on land values. The
business pays the property taxes as the value of the land rises.

Chicken shops flipping to coffee shops may predict urban gentrification, but
the self-storage business predicts cornfields turning into Wal*Marts.

------
throwaway049
This analysis is too broad-brush. Although London has richer and poorer
neighborhoods, it is common for luxury property to be right across the street
from much cheaper property.

~~~
spacecowboy_lon
Much cheaper in London terms is course < 1 million for a 2 bed flat.

------
fowkswe
If the assumption is that fried chicken places are a relic of a poorer past,
then this metric does not work for New York City. Fried chicken is _the_ food
of the moment:

[http://www.villagevoice.com/restaurants/the-ten-best-
fried-c...](http://www.villagevoice.com/restaurants/the-ten-best-fried-
chicken-sandwiches-in-new-york-7406101)

~~~
benjsto
Yeah, confusingly, I live in a currently gentrifying hipster neighborhood of
Minneapolis, of all places, and there is a hot new fried chicken restaurant
that is always so full you have to wait 2 hours to get a table.

------
melgibo12
1\. This is not even wrong. 2\. Fried chicken and coffee shops seem like a
proxy for class and race in London and were deliberately chosen by the author.

Yuppies...

~~~
pc86
1\. I'm not sure what your #1 is supposed to mean.

2\. Of course they are and were.

------
gcb0
1\. buy cheap houses

2\. buy fried chicken places and convert them to coffee shops

3\. ???

4\. profit!

------
mattlutze
My office computer is blocking Medium for some reason, but, certainly the
choice of a fried chicken joint must be localized?

There's a few regions of the US I've lived where fried chicken isn't really a
thing, in general. I'm not sure that'd it would make sense to extend the model
to those locations at least.

~~~
azernik
In the US, fried chicken has very specific associations - it's a classic
marker of African-American ethnic food. So it might signify "up-and-coming",
but for a very different reason, reflecting racial and ethnic displacement
that comes with gentrification in historically-black neighborhoods.

~~~
aroch
I think you're probably right, the inverse is seen in the US.

In the South fast-food fried chicken is sometimes a marker for not-yet-
gentrified areas of a city, but often it isn't. Fried chicken is an ingrained
cultural tradition of the south, for both whites and blacks, and if you count
any place selling fried chicken in your analysis you're actually likely to see
_more_ fried chicken in richer areas. At least that's my anecdotal
observation. I live in a section of town that's becoming gentrified and while
chains like Zaxby's and Krystal are slowly disappearing, but pretty much every
"fine dining" and even casual dining (i.e. one step over Olive garden) place
that has some southern-cuisine related riff serves fried chicken

------
scottlilly
If you want to dig deeper into this, I suggest reading "The Clustering of
America", by Michael J. Weiss.

I think some of the key indicators it used were number of bowling alleys,
liquor stores, and payphones (keep in mind, it was published in 1989).

------
agounaris
Inspiring assumption... I don't think Peckham is exactly your dream area :)

~~~
dagw
Not today. But quite possible in 5-10 years, which is kind of the point the
article was trying to make.

------
MisterBastahrd
Poor community: bail bonds, pawn shop, payday loans, dollar store, cash
checking

Affluent community: party planning, wine shop, dessert specialty shop,
boutique clothing, european car dealership

------
dbattaglia
Would be interesting to see this done for Brooklyn, which has a lot of "up-
and-coming" areas and a plethora of fried chicken and coffee shops.

~~~
GBond
Problem with Brooklyn is that high-end hipster friend chicken sandwiches is
the latest trendy food.

~~~
djtriptych
The problem with resilient neighborhoods in Brooklyn is high numbers of black
home ownership.

------
PeterStuer
You might also look at where the city plans to create new pedestrian areas and
bicycle lanes. Absence of car traffic makes real-estate prices soar.

------
sabujp
In the US it's school testing scores

------
rblstr
Wow. Our 'up and coming' excuse for living in South London is actually turning
out to be true.

------
softyeti
I would also look at the open dates for those businesses as well if available
for better trending.

------
artur_makly
back in the early 90's nyc , it was when you started seeing French bars.

------
squozzer
So who exactly eats fried chicken in the UK?

~~~
twic
People who don't drink a lot of coffee.

------
perrywky
ironically Peckham ranks the Most Dangerous Places in London
[http://www.thetoptens.com/most-dangerous-places-
london/](http://www.thetoptens.com/most-dangerous-places-london/)

------
ethbro
> Poor on average take worse care of their health and fitness

Not intended to be snarky, as I grok the intent of your comment, but poor also
don't typically have time to come home and go for an hour jog with frequency
during the week.

~~~
yummyfajitas
Is this true? The general stereotype when I lived in the UK is that the poor
were mostly non-workers who subsisted based on public assistance. If true,
then they have plenty of time.

In the US this is certainly true. The lowest earning category has 30
minutes/day more leisure time than the highest.

[http://www.bls.gov/news.release/atus.t11.htm](http://www.bls.gov/news.release/atus.t11.htm)

Anyone know where to find the UK equivalent of the ATUS?

~~~
bryondowd
In addition to the people working multiple part time minimum wage jobs to get
by, there are other time costs associated with being poor.

Poor often don't have a personal vehicle, so many hours per week can be spent
on a bus, bike, or walking, especially in places with less public transport.

Now the following probably doesn't apply to poor in cities, where you often
have amenities in easy walking distance, but in the area I live they are quite
applicable. Every time you need to go pick up groceries, you have to take
public transit to the grocery store, and you can only buy what you can carry
back, so you'll have to go more often than someone who can load up a trunk.
Add on the fact that many low end housing rentals don't have washer/dryer
units, the nearest may be miles away, so you get to take public transit with
your laundry and spend a couple hours at the laundromat.

Where I'm at, those two things alone could easily eat 10-20 hours of your
week.

~~~
yummyfajitas
If your theory were true, the poor should have less leisure time than the non-
poor. Yet according to the ATUS, they don't.

I'll break down why your theories are wrong. Most poor people don't work at
all, and many of those who do are only part time. So this idea of "multiple
part time minimum wage jobs" applies only to a very small number of people.

[http://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/cps/a-profile-of-the-
working...](http://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/cps/a-profile-of-the-working-
poor-2013.pdf)

74% of poor households actually do have a vehicle (compared to 92% of the
country), so that doesn't look like it's a big factor. 65% of the poor have a
washing machine (compared to 82% of the country), so again that's probably not
driving this gap.

[http://www.census.gov/prod/2008pubs/h150-07.pdf](http://www.census.gov/prod/2008pubs/h150-07.pdf)

Even if the premises of your theory were true, there would have to be some
countervailing factor since the conclusion (that the poor have less leisure
time) is wrong.

But maybe the UK is wildly different. Can you present any data sets to
demonstrate this?

~~~
bryondowd
Your first link is talking about a more specific group of people than I was
referring to. It references about 7% of the population, people working at
least half of the year who are below the poverty line. The 2013 poverty line
was $11,490 for individuals, $23,550 for a family of four. I'd consider twice
that to still be poor by any reasonable definition. In my area (around
Atlantic City, New Jersey) you'd be lucky to find a two bedroom apartment for
$1000/mo. So if a family of four crams into a two bedroom apartment, or an
individual splits one with a roommate, that's half the 'poverty level' in
rent. Without covering utilities, transportation, food, etc.

As to your second point, I'm sorry, but I simply don't have the time to do the
proper research on that one. You may be correct. I was primarily basing on
anecdotal evidence from what I've seen and experienced in my local area. The
statistics may also not be as clear as one would think. As I said, in my area,
someone at twice the poverty level would still struggle to get by, and in many
cities, I expect it is significantly more. At the same time, in many rural or
semi-rural areas, housing costs become a much smaller factor, which leaves
more room for things like a vehicle. Looking at the poor based on the amount
of income, without looking at circumstances at an almost individual level is a
difficult prospect.

I will also say that it is easy to overlook things that go from a non-issue to
a time and effort consuming problem when lack of resources is involved. Lack
of transportation or a washer were just two examples that came to mind. Also
note that if 74% of poor households have a vehicle, that means 26% do not.
That is a fairly significant number, in my eyes.

~~~
yummyfajitas
_I 'd consider twice that to still be poor by any reasonable definition._

$47,100 is poor? If so, then basically the entire world is poor. The only
nations in the world with a _median_ family income (adjusted for cost of
living) higher than $47,100 are Luxemborg, Norway and Sweden.

I don't find this definition remotely reasonable.

Anyway, your anecdotal evidence seems to be leading you astray. The actual
stats show a) the poor have more free time for exercise or TV watching, b)
they prefer TV watching to exercise, c) they don't have a job and d) when they
do have a job they don't have a long commute (see table 4-24 in my AHS link).

What evidence, if any, would convince you that your theories about the
lifestyle of the poor are wrong?

------
DannoHung
This analysis would be tremendously racist in America.

~~~
rockmeamedee
I don't think it would be.

Yes, the basis for the hypothesis is fried chicken -> black people and craft
coffee -> white hipsters. But that's actually what happens with
gentrification. Diverse neighbourhoods get plowed over with rich white people.

Using race in an analysis doesn't make it racist. OP saying they wouldn't want
to live in the places with fried chicken, in the context above (KFC->black
people) would be.

I'd say the piece itself rides the line. It has a sarcastic tone throughout
the piece, more of a "let's find out where the gentrification is" than "let's
go live there".

~~~
djtriptych
Ask a black person if that sounds racist to them. Or does that not matter?

~~~
Zergy
Doesn't matter. A particular group doesn't get to define racism for the rest
of the population.

~~~
ThrustVectoring
That's empirically false. "Racism" is whatever speech will convince enough
people to call you "racist", and one person in twenty is more than enough to
do it.

~~~
Zergy
Whats empirically false changes person to person and culture to culture as
demonstrated by your arbitrary definition of racism. I do not define Racism as
actions other find racist.

~~~
ThrustVectoring
I'm not interested in a debate about the meaning of truth - replace empirical
correctness with everyday practicality and my point stands. You're free to
define the term "racism" however you want to. However, you might regret
ignoring your personal and cultural context if you care about not getting
called racist.

------
pinaceae
hmm, this is local.

for cities in central europe like berlin, munich, vienna the indicators for
poor neighborhoods are mobile-phone repairshops, internet cafés and
kebab/döner/falafel places. immigrants from the south-east, from turkey to
afghanistan shaping these areas.

as nicely illustrated in the current episodes of Homeland.

------
branchless
Knew this would be the UK before I even clicked on it from the phrase.

Choose carefully as your housing "investment" will mean as much as your
ability to program to your life outcome.

------
beachstartup
in greater LA, fried chicken is actually a new trend in higher-end casual
dining, because of the east asian influence on local cuisine (korean,
japanese, taiwanese).

oftentimes it's served out of coffee shops. or tea houses. go figure.

