
Japan's PM to ask all schools to temporarily close - jdshaffer
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200227_49/
======
bouncycastle
I think what Japan really needs to do is to run a campaign to change the
culture. One of the problems is that they put too much confidence in face
masks. What they need to do is run a message that if you show any symptoms
then stay home and avoid contact altogether.

Most of these masks are just toys and not air tight at all. One experiment you
can do with the mask is go outside in cold weather, so that you can see the
steam when you breathe. You will notice that when you breathe, most of air is
actually escaping through the edges of the mask and around the nose.

Also, there is a culture of not staying home when you're sick. It's normal to
continue going to work with a cold / other infection, or school or shop. Sick
leave is frowned upon. Just put on a mask and you're all sweet, right? That
has to change.

~~~
Raphmedia
Masks in Japan are based on the desire of Japaneses not to infect others and
not to spread their own germs. They won't filter the air coming in or out, but
they'll catch a sneeze and a cough. They also make it so you don't put your
fingers in your mouth or nose. It's the sick that wear them. You barely see
them elsewhere because the idea of "wear something uncomfortable for the sake
of others" is a hard sell in the west.

~~~
fiblye
Yet I see people grab their mask and pull it down to let a huge sneeze or
cough out into the open, unprotected, all the time. I’ve even had convenience
store workers pull down their mask to cough into their hands right before
handing me something. Not to mention guys (not sure about women) pretty much
never wash their hands with soap and water after using the toilet. Most train
station bathrooms, excluding the Shinkansen stations, don’t even have soap—and
I’ve been to plenty of doctor’s offices and restaurants that have no soap in
or near their bathrooms.

Basic understand of disease spread and hygiene is lacking here. Changing into
slippers when entering a building and wearing decorative masks are all about
appearances, and that’s what’s most important in Japan. It’s even more evident
with that sham of a quarantine on the cruise ship before letting infected
people off.

~~~
sneak
I don’t think what you’re describing is specific to Japan.

I regularly see all of the unhygienic behaviors you have described in public
in Europe and in the US as well.

~~~
filoleg
Idk about Europe, but in my 10+ years in the US, I haven't seen a single
bathroom (whether public or in someone's home) that didn't have soap. And
that's across both coasts and a bunch of different states.

~~~
eric-hu
Check out a cash only gas station the next time you need to fill up and ask to
use the restroom.

~~~
perl4ever
In what country? I can't remember the last time I saw such a thing, so I think
it's at least been multiple decades. If I did, I would, you know, probably not
even attempt to use the restroom.

~~~
eric-hu
Arco and Valero in California are two chains that are effectively cash only
(they take debit cards but charge a fee that's high when pricing it into the
cost off gas). I no longer live in the US, but still visit family every year
and I've seen those on every visit.

~~~
perl4ever
Oh. But those are big chains, so I probably would expect the bathroom to be
decent.

~~~
eric-hu
I think these places are franchises so cleanliness and maintenance depends on
the owner.

------
reustle
For those of you curious about the state of COVID-19 in Japan, I created an
open source tracker that has gained a lot of momentum.

Source Code:
[https://github.com/reustle/covid19japan/](https://github.com/reustle/covid19japan/)

Tracker Itself: [https://covid19japan.com](https://covid19japan.com)

Twitter Thread:
[https://twitter.com/reustle/status/1229313493808992257](https://twitter.com/reustle/status/1229313493808992257)

(copied from another thread)

~~~
BookPage
Wow this is awesome, I would love for this to be a global thing. Are you aware
of any ports for other countries?

~~~
drclau
There are many, but I personally follow this one:

[https://covid19info.live/](https://covid19info.live/) (formerly wuflu.live)

Here’s a list of other similar websites/apps/telegram/whatsapp groups:

[https://github.com/abuuzayr/coronavirus-
apps/](https://github.com/abuuzayr/coronavirus-apps/)

~~~
rubidium
Glad they provide a log scale. Shows China growth slowing down but the rest of
the world is exponential.

~~~
reustle
If you trust the reported numbers, and agree that the number of tests being
performed is adequate. In Japan, for example, the number of tests is far too
low (2,000 only so far).

Adding this metric to the tracker tonight, actually.

------
girlgeekinjapan
Sorry to change the topic but I'm really struggling with a decision to fly
from Tokyo (where I live) to the USA tomorrow for a wedding.

One of my closest friends is getting married. She says to come! Wedding is
Saturday. Day after I'd fly to another state to see mom. A few days after that
I'd fly to another state to see brother and dad. After that was supposed to be
GDC. May still go to SF or just stay with dad but current flight back is after
GDC.

I don't really want to miss my friends wedding and was really looking forward
to seeing family as I only get to seem them once every other year or so and
parents are healthy but ~80 so no so many chances left.

So, what do I do? Go and cross my fingers I don't catch it? Pray that I'm not
a carrier? No symptoms ATM. I currently work from home so haven't been
commuting in typical Tokyo rush hour trains but have been out at non-rush hour
2 out of 3 days a week.

Is it selfish to want to go? Is it selfish to not want to go? Is it
irresponsible to go? Is it stupid to be worried?

~~~
heimatau
If you're younger than 50. I'd go. Take basic precautions but don't worry.

If you're older than 50, still go but take extra precautions. And take any
symptoms very seriously.

~~~
andrei_says_
Not op but I’ve been wondering, if symptoms appear what can be done apart from
go home with the flu and hope it’ll pass and not kill me??

~~~
adventured
Right now they'll probably want to test and actively quarantine you, if you
really are showing symptoms.

In a more mass-spread scenario, where they can't really handle all the cases
with high attention - follow your symptoms each day closely and if you're
getting noticeably worse from one day to the next after the early symptoms
have appeared (after the first several days), go to the hospital and seek
treatment. It doesn't appear to be much different than having the flu in this
regard, it's that the mortality rate and virality appears to be far higher
(and a far higher percentage of patients are requiring intensive care).

There was an excellent 'inside the hot zone' article posted here on HN a few
weeks ago, that interviewed a doctor in China that had directly dealt with
many early cases of Covid. His input was that the people that died turned hard
south in the second week after symptoms presented, and would often die in the
third week. That pattern tended to repeat for patients that died. Seeking
treatment at a hospital as soon as possible if you see yourself turn for the
worse in the second week, appears to be critical.

~~~
mjevans
The pattern you describe should be everyone's standard practice already.

If symptoms are getting worse, particularly acutely, seek medical attention.

Importantly, if you think it might be something bad (like COVID-19 or another
contagious disease) make sure to make that known to the first and primary
medical contacts you make as you seek treatment.

------
patio11
n.b. This is being described domestically as 要請, which is “ask” in the sense
of “The IRS asks that you not lie on your tax return.”

~~~
arbuge
The US IRS can and will jail you if you do lie, so that might not be the best
analogy.

~~~
nkrisc
In terms of expressing the linguistic point being made, it seems like a fine
analogy.

The point is, apparently, that "ask" is a euphemism for something that you are
effectively obligated to do.

You're reading much too far into it.

~~~
andyjpb
As an English person I am finding this thread very confusing because I
encounter very few situations where "ask" doesn't mean exactly what patio11 is
describing.

This is especially true when the dialogue is between two people (or entities)
of different social status or power, but it's also pretty rude to not oblige
when you are close to the person.

The only time it is truly voluntary is when there is no relationship and
nothing to lose by declining.

~~~
roel_v
If the IRS would "ask" me about income in the same way that I "ask" my wife to
pass me the peas when we're having dinner, you can be sure I wouldn't be
paying any taxes...

------
Mountain_Skies
Our county school system has a remote learning platform in place that is used
for bad weather days. It keeps the schools from needing to do make up days. I
wonder how long it could be effective. It seems like an ok way to handle
lessons and coursework for a few days but I wonder if there would be a wide
gap in student achievement if it needed to go beyond that limited scope.

~~~
Thlom
Just curious, how extreme weather do you get where you live? We have some
rough weather at times, but I've never heard of closed anything due to bad
weather.

~~~
cka
I can't speak for the op, but in Minnesota (in the northern part of the US),
there are days in the winter when the temperature gets as low as -30F (~ -35C)
with very high winds. This can make for very dangerous travel. Occasionally
there are snow storms that make the roads impassable for part of the day.

On these sorts of days, the schools are sometimes closed to keep people off
the roads.

~~~
hermitdev
I grew up in Montana, same latitude as MN. The entirety of my K-12 schooling
was done there. We never once had our schools close for snow, but we did have
2 closures due to extreme cold. Once it was so cold, the school's boilers
couldn't keep up heating the buildings. The other, the boilers were going so
hard they actually managed to start a fire in the ceilings.

That said, there were days where snow prevented me from getting to school and
days where the drive home was treacherous (the only way to tell where the road
was the highway reflectors sticking out of the snow). I also learned how to
chain up the first year I had my license. Nearly every day in December that
year, I had to chain up to get home (water on ice and ~14% grade on the first
hill up to the house).

~~~
dboreham
Also in Montata. Our school has closed for one day in 30 years due to weather.
This was due to busses not being able to travel the town roads. Our kids would
have been at school since they don't ride the bus. They've failed to get to
school one day when my plow truck ended up stuck sideways across our road.

------
jackschultz
I don't see comments on this yet but I'll says some of that is because of the
Olympics based in Tokyo this summer. I heard the other day about how there's
kind of a cutoff point in May determining if it needs to be postponed, pushed,
or moved. The Olympics is still huge and if your country is hosting, I can see
them wanting to close schools to try anything to stop the possible spread for
people to trust and want to still go and compete.

~~~
0xffff2
Does the situation in Japan even really matter when you're making that call?
If the virus is still rampant in the rest of the world, surely they're still
going to cancel.

~~~
bluehex
I wouldn’t count on Japan acting logically after the way they handled the
Diamond Princess quarantine.

e.g. letting people disembark because they tested negative and _then_ spent
weeks in quarantine. [1]

[1]: [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/23/coronavirus-
wo...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/23/coronavirus-woman-on-
diamond-princess-cruise-ship-tested-positive-after-disembarking)

------
elicash
This is surprising given this epidemic seems to mostly affect people over 30.
Not saying it's wrong, I'm not a public health expert. Just surprised.

Is it because they might be likely to carry and spread it without ever showing
any symptoms?

~~~
giarc
There's a good discussion on today's episode of the Daily podcast (Feb 27).
Basically the theory is that children often get the 4x regular coronavirus
strains and this provides a bit of protection against the new coronavirus
strain. Therefore they tend to get subacute cases of coronavirus but can still
spread.

Here's an unintended consequence of closing schools though. Who often takes
care of children when schools are unexpectedly closed? Grandparents. So in a
way, they could be making this worse.

~~~
davidw
Kids staying at home with grandparents means far smaller groups of people
though.

When my daughter started preschool... boy did she ever bring home every type
of disease known to science. We ended up pulling her out and just having her
grandparents look after her, which worked out really well, because I kept
getting sick and missing work myself.

~~~
giarc
>Kids staying at home with grandparents means far smaller groups of people
though.

No, it means smaller groups of kids, but not for those seniors. They still go
about their day, visiting with friends etc.

~~~
davidw
They can choose to not do that. Kids can't just take care of themselves on
their own, they need an adult to take care of them. And seniors are a lot
better about washing their hands and other things than young kids in big
groups are.

------
refurb
Vietnam, who has only had 19 cases (and very few new ones lately), closed
their schools a few weeks back.

Last I heard that may be extended to the end of March.

~~~
NhanH
It was a bit easier for Vietnam, since the schools were closed for Lunar New
Year and we just kept it closed. However the government is discussing whether
to open it again next week... Potentially bad timing to do so.

------
HarryHirsch
Good luck with that in the US, where school is often used as an alternative to
childcare.

~~~
steve_adams_86
I'd argue that US parents are so keen on schools staying open because often
their jobs depend on it. I expect it would be similar in Japan as well.

Maybe it seems like daycare because, in a sense, it does serve the function of
allowing parents to work. That doesn't mean it's an alternative to daycare.
The parents want their kids to have an education, but they also count on
school to be able to work.

Even here in Canada, if a school has a snow day and an employer doesn't, it
can be a little tense if you don't have anywhere to put your kids. People with
relaxed employers and good leave options are fine, but many people don't have
that.

~~~
magduf
>I'd argue that US parents are so keen on schools staying open because often
their jobs depend on it. I expect it would be similar in Japan as well.

Why would it be similar in Japan? In Japan, children walk themselves to school
(using public transit if necessary) as young as 6 years old. It's not like the
US where parents can be thrown in jail for "child neglect" if their children
don't have 24/7 adult supervision. I imagine that Japanese schoolkids can just
stay at home if the schools are closed.

~~~
dboreham
This is not the case everywhere in the US. E.g. in Montana there is no minimum
age to leave a child unsupervised. In our town young kids walk and bike to
school. Probably not aged 6 but certainly by 8-10.

~~~
magduf
Not everywhere, but Montana has a tiny, tiny fraction of the total population,
and no large cities at all. In much of the country, for most of the population
(which mostly lives in urban/suburban areas), it is as I described.

------
tasogare
I think next will be universities (we already cancelled a conference in mine).
Japan has taken the issue too lightly since the beginning, it's good they
finally start acting on it.

~~~
jdshaffer
Not sure if the universities will close, unless things get much worse. The
universities here are already on Spring Break -- the semester / year ended at
the start of February and the new school year won't start until the beginning
of April. So, it's most likely they universities will just stay as they are
and wait and see.

IF things get worse, I'm not sure what the universities will do here.

~~~
tasogare
It’s spring vacation for undergrad students only, not researchers, grads
students and administrative staff. Also contrary to Europe most service are
running at least minimally (libraries, a cafeteria, etc.) so there is still
some activity on campus.

So, if the virus keep spreading I hope they’ll close or that we can chose to
stay at home, which is OK for most of my job anyway.

------
pavon
In Japan who would typically take care of children in a situation like this?
In the US, because of the difficulty for parents to get off of work, I would
expect most of the children to be in large group settings anyway (day care,
staying with friends, large extended families, etc). It might limit spread a
little bit compared to school, but not a lot.

~~~
usaar333
Mothers. Japan is actually known for having very poor child support options
outside of family. The percent of married woman with children that work is
quite low.

~~~
fogetti
According to a government survey from 2017 or so, the number of single parent
families was hovering around 1.2 million. This is almost exactly 1 percent of
the population which doesn't seem much until you compare it to the number of
children under the age of 14 which is 15.53 million people. Now their ratio
gets closer to 8 percent.

That doesn't seem very low to me.

------
durpleDrank
Seriously though. That guy who comes into work sick to show us all he is 100%
committed is completely bonkers. WORK REMOTELY if you need to flex how big
your dedication is. Maybe throw a Calvin and Hobbes sticker on your car
windshield while you're being so insecure and putting peoples health at risk.

~~~
jdshaffer
Actually the pressure is a bit on the reverse... if you call off sick for
anything less that super-ill, it looks like you're not committed, and your
boss and co-workers will not think that favorably of you.

Even at the university I work at, as a teacher, there's a subtle pressure not
to call in sick or miss meetings or take a day off. I can only imagine how
much STRONGER that peer-pressure is in an office setting.

------
jdshaffer
Announced just about an hour ago, taking the country here (Japan) by surprise.
Most JHS and HS are in the middle of final exams, and public High School
entrance exams are next week. (Most university entrance exams are just
finishing, though).

A hopefully good move, but might have been nicer to have given teachers and
students more time to prepare (i.e., announce it a week earlier, perhaps?).

 _shrug_ Just my $0.02

~~~
pbhjpbhj
>Officials say 2 of the 15 new cases are children under 10 years of age.

>The latest cases bring the number of confirmed infections in Hokkaido to 54,
the most in Japan.

How were they supposed to know last week that this would happen? Or are you
proposing be can stop the spread of the virus for a week to give people chance
to get ready??

~~~
jdshaffer
No, I simply mean it would have been nice last week to let the schools know
he's considering cancelling schools. By making this a sudden announcement he's
caught all the schools on the hop, you might say. Today (Friday) is the one
and only day left to wrap up the school year (school years end in March and
start in April here). So final exams will be cancelled, maybe graduation
ceremonies will be cancelled, students have to empty out their desks (they
don't have lockers here).

Basically, teachers and students have to finish up the school year TODAY, with
no advanced warning or time to plan.

So, I completely agree with Abe-san's desire to curb the spread of the virus,
but being in the education system myself (and having 3 kids affected by his
decision), a bit of an advanced warning would have GREATLY helped the schools,
the kids, and the parents.

 _shrug_ But as I said, it's just my thoughts and hopes and desires as a
father being affected by it! :-)

------
jdshaffer
Japanese Source:
[https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200227/k10012304751000.ht...](https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200227/k10012304751000.html)

------
psychlops
They plan to close them until spring holidays late next month. We can expect
much of the US to do the same if the virus comes in during the winter season.

This is a big reason why the stock market is dropping.

~~~
vorpalhex
> This is a big reason why the stock market is dropping.

That's.. a gross over simplification. The market sees a lot of perceived risk,
whether that's school closures or factories shuttering temporarily, disruption
in travel or other effects.

The move towards investing more in gold bullion is both reactionary and
indicates the market perceives a heightened risk of crash. Note that the
market perceiving something doesn't make it true or inevitable, anymore than
your aunt Jill perceiving she's allergic to bad chakras.

> We can expect much of the US to do the same...

Maybe. That depends heavily on how any given local body is willing to admit
the problem exists, federal pressure on them one way or another, and general
population beliefs. I'd expect California to close a few schools if they see
more cases, but I wouldn't expect Alabama to.

~~~
perl4ever
"The move towards investing more in gold bullion is both reactionary"

The market seems to be moving towards US Treasuries too.

------
nestlequ1k
More than 900 cases of infection have been confirmed. Damn, that's alarming.

~~~
kingosticks
But, as the rest of the sentence mentions, more than 700 of those were from
the cruise ship.

I think you really need to keep that in mind when considering the Japanese
infection count.

------
acoderhasnoname
too late to do that now? it's already in the community

~~~
dredmorbius
The point of epidemiological containment is to reduce the R value such that
R<1\. Once this is done, eventually, inevitably, the epidemic will burn out.

Yes, more people will become infected, yes, some will die.

But the level of person-to-person transmission will have fallen below the
level necessary for the epidemic to sustain itself, and it will slowly decline
and fade out.

Perfect containment, 100% effective vaccines, 100% vaccination rates, (neither
of which apply here: there is not yet a vaccine), 100% travel and contact
curtailment, 100% sanitation, 100% filtration, are not required. Only
sufficiently effective methods to reduce transmission.

Of which, strong, effective, and widespread gathering and travel restrictions
_within or from epidemic zones_ are a very sensible tool.

~~~
wtdo
I can't find any relevant data, but I wonder what effects previous quarantines
(eg during Spanish flu) had on other infectious agents (eg common cold,
norovirus, etc). Nobody was being quarantined for those other diseases, but
I'd think a general quarantine would have had an effect on them as well. Maybe
there ought to be a monthly quarantine every year, kinda like the Jewish year
of jubilee.

------
BurningFrog
Somewhere, a demonic Japanese child's spell has finally succeeded.

~~~
anticensor
This is Japan. Parallel schools would appear :)

