
Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens-Coronavirus [pdf] - hourislate
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b68a4e4a2772c2a206180a1/t/5e2efaa2ff2cf27efbe8fc91/1580137123173/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Path.pdf
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rozim
"Historically based estimates of spreading rates for pandemics in general, and
for the current one in particular, underestimate the rate of spread because of
the rapid increases in transportation connectivity over recent years. This
means that expectations of the extent of harm are underestimates both because
events are inherently fat tailed, and because the tail is becoming fatter as
connectivity increases" ...

"Together, these observations lead to the necessity of a precautionary
approach to current and potential pandemic outbreaks that must include
constraining mobility patterns..."

"It will cost something to reduce mobility in the short term, but to fail do
so will eventually cost everything—if not from this event, then one in the
future...."

