
No lockdown, please, we’re Swedish - alanfranz
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/no-lockdown-please-w-re-swedish
======
Pinus
These articles always give a sense that it's business as usual in Sweden. It
isn't. I have been working from home for three weeks now, but I have had to go
into central Stockholm a couple of times, and it is almost eerily empty.
Restaurants and cafés have a handful of clients, spread out in the corners, at
peak lunch time when they would normally be crammed full. Shops are open, but
the client-to-staff ratio is close to 1:1, and most have reduced their opening
hours. Some article mentioned that cinemas are open. This is technically true
-- they haven't been ordered to close -- but the big chain that runs most of
them has shut those down on their own initiative.

I don't claim that the level of restrictions is optimal, or that tighter
restrictions would not be beneficial, but business as usual it isn't.

~~~
DavidVoid
One of the reasons the government hasn't ordered a police-enforced lockdown
here is that it probably wouldn't make much of a difference. Most businesses
and people are already following the government's recommendations by staying
at home as much as possible.

That said, there are some laws in place. Since three days ago you are no
longer allowed to visit retirement homes for example.

[https://www.krisinformation.se/en/news/2020/march/national-b...](https://www.krisinformation.se/en/news/2020/march/national-
ban-on-visiting-retirement-homes)

------
jpdb
This whole article was pretty...odd to me.

I felt like it spread disinformation to glorify Sweden's decision to not
implement lockdown. The decision to not suspend civil liberties is a
complicated one, so I don't want to go into it; but lines like, "Stay at home
if you feel sick," are EXTREMELY dangerous because much of the danger of
COVID-19 is due to people being asymptomatic for such a long time, meaning
people potentially transfer the disease to others even though they don't feel
sick.

~~~
raducu
On one hand I wish nobody harm.

On the other hand I'm sick and tired of the highly polarized modern world
where you see idiots opposing common sense things such as vaccination -- maybe
those people really need to suffer the natural consequence of their stupidity;
swedish people seem to have a lot of common sense built into their society, so
maybe, hopefully this decision won't negatively affect them.

~~~
danielrpa
I hear what you are saying, but quite frequently it's not stupidity, just
ignorance.

It is true that in a highly connected world anyone could educate themselves on
the benefits of vaccines, but it can be hard to overcome long held beliefs
(passed down through education) or peer pressure (in communities that reject
certain scientific facts).

All that I'm saying is that while these people might now learn through pain
and suffering, I don't really feel they all deserve it.

------
flr03
I find this paper very undesirable, outrageous and borderline conspirational.

> "There are many experts in epidemiology and virology who are highly critical
> of the lockdown strategy. Few are willing to talk on record."

I mean that's a pretty easy statement to make. Surely if nobody speaks those
ideas can't be scientifically challenged.

> "This Swedish exceptionalism is about principle, not epidemiology."

The lockdown strategy is very country dependant, depends on how quickly the
infection spread, how much the health system can cope with. There is no
principle in that. Some countries are really struggling now and Sweden would
do exactly the same in these situation.

There is a certain "show off" attitude in this article which is highly
disrespectful in regard of the situation elsewhere.

~~~
cc81
And I don't think it reflects the sentiment here in Sweden either, there is a
lot of internal critique and a lot of people want harsher methods (regardless
if it actually does anything).

Sweden have rising deaths and will be hit hard like many countries and we have
some of the lowest amount of ICU beds per million inhabitants in Europe, they
are of course trying to build out but have problem staffing them as well.

I don't think Sweden will land on a low death toll but the question will be if
a more complete shutdown would have helped.

~~~
cpach
_“we have some of the lowest amount of ICU beds per million inhabitants in
Europe”_

Yep, that really sucks and for me that is more scary than the harshness (or
lack of harsness if you will) in the imposed restrictions.

AFAIK, after the cold war we got rid of most of our field hospitals that we
had.

 _[Edited to add comment about field hospitals]_

------
zarkov99
This is such bullshit. As soon as the body count starts to rise all this
nonsense is going to out the window and the "exceptional" Swedes will be
ordered to cower in their homes just like everybody else.

~~~
odshoifsdhfs
The thing is, at least for now, they seem to be in line with other countries
that took all the measures. Sweden has a very similar number of cases/deaths
and population as Portugal which locked schools 3 weeks ago, and the rest of
the country 2 weeks ago, but Sweden [1] had the initial reported cases many
weeks before then Portugal [2] (for deaths [3]). (I couldn't find number of
tests done in each country so that may be a variable there that may mess these
values)

I guess the next couple weeks will show which approach is better.

[1] [https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102203/cumulative-
coron...](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102203/cumulative-coronavirus-
cases-in-sweden/) [2]
[https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107359/coronavirus[-cas...](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107359/coronavirus\[-cases-
portugal-cumulative/) [3]
[https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102203/cumulative-
coron...](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102203/cumulative-coronavirus-
cases-in-sweden/)

~~~
_-___________-_
Yeah, I'm watching closely. There is no actual evidence supporting strict
lockdowns, despite everyone talking about them as if they're proven to be the
only solution. So far, Sweden is showing that perhaps a balanced approach that
doesn't destroy your economy can work equally well. Hopefully soon there will
be some evidence one way or another.

~~~
raducu
Sweden is quite different as a society and societal habits than the rest of
the world, I don't think we can apply much of what they are doing to India or
Iran, perhaps it's applicable to Norway or Finland.

~~~
_-___________-_
I think Stockholm / Copenhagen would be a pretty good comparison.

------
i_dont_know_
I live here and this is the first time I've heard of it framed in terms of
liberty.

When schools started closing across Europe, government officials started
talking keeping the schools open so health care workers wouldn't have to take
off work to care for their kids. This was also the rationale mentioned when
the chief epidemiologist, Anders Tagnell, was interviewed by the BBC the other
day.

Another point he made was about compliance: if you keep everything shut down
and on lockdown for too long, people will eventually just not comply anymore,
so you want to save it until it's necessary.

As cool as it would be to believe that we're just not doing it for liberty,
it's pretty clear we're not doing it for practical reasons, and that we're not
doing it _yet_.

As things escalate, it's pretty clear the same lockdown measures other
countries have implemented will also come to Sweden.

------
JoachimS
This is an opinon piece by Fredrik Erixon, who is not epidemiologist. The
article claim that "We can expect our Covid-19 death figures to rise faster
than our neighbours". This a statement by the author and is not supported by
facts, references presented in the article.

It is also the author that claim that the strategy taken by the Swedish
goverernment is about Swedish exceptionalism. Again this is not supported by
facts, for example references to actual statements.

~~~
Kiro
What are you saying exactly? He's praising the Swedish strategy but you take
the only counter-point out of context and make it sound like he's condemning
it.

~~~
JoachimS
I'm saying that this is an opinon piece that among other things state things
about how the epidemy will develop in Sweden without basing it on facts.

------
angarg12
> The theory of lockdown, after all, is pretty niche, deeply illiberal — and,
> until now, untested. It’s not Sweden that’s conducting a mass experiment.
> It’s everyone else.

I don't buy that. China did a lockdown, and (at least officially) it has
contained the disease. Also there are buckets of models and studies that
support this course of action.

> We can expect our Covid-19 death figures to rise faster than our neighbours’
> — still all within the confines of a bad winter flu, but these graphs can
> scare people.

Coronavirus is not 'like the flu'. There is so much data disproving this I
won't even bother linking them. Do a Google search 'is coronavirus like the
flu'.

> They publish their own models of the virus spread. It shows how many people
> will need hospital care: the system, they say, can cope. And when asked,
> they say they don’t think Imperial College has made a better call. > This
> Swedish exceptionalism is about principle, not epidemiology. > yes, they
> make us different to Italy and Spain

I feel like there is this narrative floating around that blames countries for
their fate regarding Coronavirus. Sure, governments have done a better or
worse job dealing with the outbreak, and different places were better or worse
prepared. But the veiled message that I get is "Italy and Spain got so many
deaths and their economy got wrecked because they are inferior".

~~~
gohbgl
> I don't buy that.

Well now you have a control group to compare against.

~~~
raverbashing
Control group analysis has been very problematic in this epidemic

A high % of people are asymptomatic or just has mild/moderate symptoms. People
might not have known what hit them.

Hence people might be tested (now) if they fit the symptoms. Might be tested,
and might or might not be classified as Covid-19 without the tests

And that's in countries with a good health system. Maybe some country with
hundreds of official cases is already in the millions. Who knows?!

------
standardUser
The impact of the pandemic varies from region to region and no one can explain
why yet. Japan has a very low transmission rate despite minimal government
action. Developing countries and/or areas with warmer climates seem to have a
lower transmission rate as well. In Western Europe and the US, cases double
every 2-3 days instead of every 5-6 days like in other regions. Except for
Iran, which had one of the earliest outbreaks. And Brazil, where the central
government has refused to take action.

There's a lot of unexplained variation and maybe the approach in Sweden will
enlighten us. But I wish the article talked a little more about what people
_are_ doing, because it may be more subtle actions that make the difference.
People talk about the lack of hand-shaking in Japan as a possible factor. What
peculiarities of Swedish life might be at play? Their transmission rate is in
line with similar nations (~doubling every 5 days) but their testing rate is
on the low end of Europe. Are they lucky or doing something right?

~~~
ptr
Not shaking hands has been the norm for some weeks now in Sweden. I thought
this was the case everywhere?

~~~
standardUser
The US and much of Europe is practicing extreme social distancing. I haven't
had the opportunity to shake someone's hand in weeks due to the lockdown. In
fact, I haven't touched someone that is not a part of my household in at least
three weeks.

But Japan has been avoiding handshakes naturally since the start of the
outbreak, which may have helped suppress transmission rates before they even
knew the virus was spreading.

~~~
ptr
Most people that I know have been WFH for some time, myself for 4 weeks. It's
not like people are out and about like they used to -- the social distancing
is self-imposed.

------
justzisguyuknow
Ah the convenience of a not-too-densely populated country of homogeneous like-
minded people....

~~~
cpach
Yep, those factors probably explain a good part of why the Swedish authorities
have decided on these policies and recommendations.

Our State Epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, has been pretty explicit in stating
that these policies are not “one size fits all”, other countries will need to
set their own policies in accordance with their situation and conditions.

PS. IMHO, the homogeneity of the Swedish society is sometimes a bit
overstated. Believe or not but there is still some room left for having your
own opinions and lifestyle here ;-) And our society is probably less
conformist now than during the postwar/cold war era.

 _[Edited to add PS and fix spelling error.]_

~~~
JoachimS
Exactly. Sweden is quite probably the least homogeneous country in northern
Europe with huge changes in the population the last 10-15 years.

~~~
cpach
Yep. And we’ve also grown a bit. Norway/Finland/Denmark have ~5M inhabitants
each, while Sweden has twice as many.

------
raducu
Oh, please, I get it swedish society is different, but saying you are the last
free place in the world is too far fetched. I hope Swedens gamble works for
them, but this will be way worse than any flu season, even with their master
viking race immunity /s

~~~
JoachimS
You are responding to a claim by the author of the article, not something
claimed by Sweden.

~~~
raducu
Absolutely, I don't think Sweden is a single person so it can make such
claims.

------
Profan
The only worse thing than Sweden practically doing nothing (saying this as an
insufferable swede myself) are the insufferable articles somehow touting the
superiority of the approach, as some sort of underdog or challenger?

The mention of Swedish exceptionalism rings true and some self-awareness would
be helpful, not sure can you use that term unironically here..

~~~
cc81
Sweden has imposed several restrictions and Sweden will have problems
regardless of lock-down or not due to a very limited amount of ICU beds.

~~~
cpach
IMO all similar countries will have lots of deaths and tragedies during this
pandemic. It's a really tough virus.

------
bashwizard
What I find absolutely moronic is that a lot of employers here in Sweden keep
their employees at their workplaces even though their work could be basically
100% remote. They keep saying "stay home if you feel sick or show any symptom.
If not, then it's business as usual from the office".

A friend of mine works for one of the big insurance companies and all he does
is back office related work and according to him, all he needs is a VPN access
and he can do all his work from home. But no, he needs a doctors notice saying
that he belong to one of the risk groups before they let him work for home so
he's considering getting some doctor to sign a notice even though he's not in
a risk group because he doesn't want to risk getting infected at work or while
commuting.

~~~
cpach
Wow. That’s quite bad indeed, especially since the Public Health Agency has
strongly urged that anyone that can work from home ought to do so.

~~~
bashwizard
And do you know what their CEO and board said as their defense?

"We know and work with risk everyday. We know how to handle this"

Crazy.

------
shripadk
With 558.7 people per million confirmed cases Sweden is not doing a great job
[1]. I don't understand the tone of this article. What is there to feel
"exceptional" about? Sweden has 5616 confirmed cases and 309 deaths which is a
lot for its population [1]. Nothing "exceptional" except it is scary that it
is so high for a small country with a small population. It is these kind of
articles that cause slackness when you need to be extra vigilant. Lockdown
works. Don't battle science with crazy, stupid logics.

[1]:
[https://google.com/covid19-map/?hl=en](https://google.com/covid19-map/?hl=en)

~~~
cc81
Confirmed cases is difficult to measure as countries test so differently.

Sweden has a lot of deaths (though not exceptional if you look at per million
inhabitants) and I believe it will rise; the question is how much lag there is
and how much lock-downs work, what type you are talking about and how long you
can keep it up.

There is also random chance I feel. For example in Sweden we have something
called "sportlov", which is a week off from school (it is a different week for
different parts of the country) and for Stockholm it was end of February and a
many went to the Italian alps skiing for example.

How much did that affect the spread? So while one learning is that I think
somewhere like South Korea is a role model, be more prepared and actually have
protective gear in storage units instead of relying on global supply chains
always working another thing is just how many with "just the flu" walked
around in the biggest cities in your country before it was taken seriously.

------
INTPenis
I know a lot of people are speaking out of their ass about this virus thing
but I do believe our temperature has been a bit too cold for it to spread from
objects, clothing and skin so far.

Also we've had amazing weather.

This last weekend I was in a 40 person pile up on a walking bridge near the
beach here. Because someone wanted to take a perfect Instagram picture with
his three dogs in the middle of the bridge.

I do also believe this virus thing is going to blow up in our faces soon, in
these two coming months when temperatures get closer to 10-12 C daily.

So in hindsight we shouldn't have gone into WFH mode until april-may. And in
June I believe it's going to be real heavy.

------
HenryBemis
I just hope that their stupidity doesn't cost them their grandparents,
majority of people with cancer/heart disease/etc. Swedish are fine, positive,
it will be a pitty.

Like on every pandemic, the game is over only when the cure/vaccine is
distributed to the whole planet. Until then it is way to risky to relax.

~~~
cpach
I don’t really understand this argument. In the countries with lockdowns, are
people not dying there from Covid-19? And as you can see from other comments
in this thread, it is _not_ business as usual in Sweden. There are lots of
restrictions in place in order to attempt to flatten the curve.

~~~
HenryBemis
Yes people are dying all over. But you have to check the ratios. If country A
with 20mil population has 10 deaths, and country B with 1mil population has
also 10 deaths, then country B is doing something far worse than country A
because they got x20 deaths (per 1mil of population). Any leader who wanted to
play 'mucho' has an accelerated infection rate in his country (Johnson, Trump,
Bolsonaro). And we are still in the beginning of damn thing.

So the joyous spirit of "we're good meeting and having lunch with friends"
will fade away with the funerals of old and sick. And I am 100% sure that
nobody wants their elders to pass before the latest possible. Swedes too love
their parents, their elderly, their sick. It is plain irresponsible.

From The Guardian: [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/catastrophe-
sw...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/catastrophe-sweden-
coronavirus-stoicism-lockdown-europe)

> On the beach and surrounding parkland at Sibbarp there were picnics and
> barbecues this weekend; the adjoining skate park and playground were rammed.
> No one was wearing a mask.

I too enjoy a BBQ, trust me I do.. a nice steak, a nice burger, some grilled
veggies.. but is this the best time to do this? Sweden is not an isolated
country in the middle of the ocean where they got no travelers. Are they
trying to win a race but helping the virus affect more?

I thought the purpose is to try (our) best to limit this exposure (flatten the
curve and all that) so we can save anyone who can be save. Helping this speed
up won't help them.

------
pgtan
This is how socialism "works". One pays enormous taxes his whole life, but
then, when it comes for government to protect one's health, they do nothing
and name this even "liberal".

~~~
zabana
We'll see how it turns out for them. But so far, it doesn't look like they're
about to be decimated anytime soon.

------
heartbeats
> Isn’t the real question why other countries aren’t doing the same?

Perhaps because they are not willing to take a gamble? This is, to put it
bluntly, idiotic - you do not play games with people's lives and hope it turns
out well.

~~~
kryptiskt
There is no safe choice, all anybody can do is to set some policies and hope
it turns out well.

~~~
cpach
As a fellow Swede I agree. Hospitals all over the world will be overwhelmed
because of the pandemic. Even countries doing lockdowns will have a really
hard time.

I sincerely believe that the Public Health Agency in Sweden are handling the
situation in a good way. Will we fare better or worse than other, similar
countries? We can’t know for sure, it’s only after it’s over that we can get a
verdict.

~~~
heartbeats
> Will we fare better or worse than other, similar countries? We can’t know
> for sure, it’s only after it’s over that we can get a verdict.

That is the whole point - they're taking a gamble. You can draw up a matrix.
If they don't do a lockdown, and it turns out to be not-very-dangerous, they
will have saved the economy.

If they don't do a lockdown, and it turns out to be very dangerous, they will
have the blood of hundreds of thousands on their hands. But the worst
consequence that they can suffer is not getting re-elected.

Think of it like Russian roulette. If the payouts are [+10, +10, +10, +10,
+10, -1000], your expected value is -158.3, but if your downside is limited to
-20, your expected value is +5. It is not morally justified to take a 20%
chance of killing 100'000 people for an 80% chance of raising GDP by 5% ($26
billion). That's 20'000 people for $21.2 billion, or $1.1 million per person.

