
Coronavirus may already have infected half of UK population – Oxford study - FartyMcFarter
https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b
======
larksimian
Link to the actual study: [https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-
COVID-19-Mod...](https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-
COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0)

The title is massive clickbait. The study models various possible parameters
for the disease and fits them to UK and Italian cases to try and infer a
mortality rate.

We already have a very solid mortality rate estimate from South Korea(0.6%),
where they likely managed to test everyone that actually had the virus.

If that's the 'true' mortality rate, then the UK can expect 5-10% of the
population to have the virus now(according to this model, which is bad).

------
phillipseamore
The Faroe Islands have tested about 4.7% of their population and found 122
infected (0.23% of population).

Similarly Iceland has tested about 2.9% of their population (both symptomatic
and asymptomatic) and found 648 (0.18% of pop). A study from Iceland is
expected in the Lancet soon.

~~~
Engineering-MD
Those are (as far as I’m aware) current infections. The test for viral RNA
will only be positive with an acute infection, and not otherwise. Therefore
previously infected and recovered cases will not show up.

~~~
phillipseamore
Correct, current infections.

------
robocat
Why is a paywall more important than disseminating information?

Do journalists or humanitarians get any say in how these businesses are run?

~~~
bookofjoe
Try this:
[https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea0557...](https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a)

