
Ask HN: How long do you think the quarantine measures will last per country? - shadowprofile77
As many of the countries steadily more affected by the COVID pandemic enact social distancing and quarantine measures, there have been varied claims about how long these will last. I&#x27;ve heard estimates ranging from a couple weeks to months.<p>What this makes me ask is: first, for those of you who comment here and can make a better educated guess than some others, what strikes you as a plausible scenario in the following weeks?  Secondly, how can they be on the shorter end of that if the virus is still active and still without a vaccine or treatment. As soon as quarantines get ignored or lifted again, wouldn&#x27;t new infections simply retake their previous surge, causing new saturations?
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mathdev
Took Hubei nearly two months with a complete shutdown. The West cannot do
anything remotely close to a complete shutdown due to different social order
and there being multiple loci of infection. Therefore, the measures will be
exponentially less effective. So the lockdown will be indefinite - multiple
years at least.

Unless we let a small number of old people die of natural causes, we are
basically switching to a totalitarian system.

~~~
adventured
> So the lockdown will be indefinite - multiple years at least.

The lockdown can't last indefinitely. The US and EU will largely collapse,
literally, in that approach before a year is out. This will become very
apparent within a very short amount of time. The US and EU will go bankrupt
trying to maintain lockdown mode.

The West will do the exact opposite. Before a few months are up, the lockdowns
will end no matter what the circumstances are. The US and EU will switch to
lockdown / quarantine for only those most vulnerable.

It's far cheaper, and a lot more sane, to handle the ICU cases than to spend
$1 trillion every month on keeping the US or EU economies on life support.
We'll invert the context: everyone on lockdown at enormous total cost to
protect the most vulnerable, switched to a small percentage of the population
on lockdown / quaratine at a far smaller cost.

The virus is likely extremely widespread. The US probably has a million cases
of the virus already. China probably has had several million cases of it.

There is in fact no other possible scenario than to end the lockdowns, it will
not really be a choice, it will have to occur. Neither the US nor the EU can
sustain in perpetual lockdown mode, for obvious reasons related to food,
supplies, production.

What are countries like Spain going to do, run $200 billion financial programs
every other month? Of course not. It's obvious what the choice will be at this
point.

Herd immunity is already underway, due to the extreme number of undetected
cases. If any of the larger nations were really on top of this mess, they'd be
doing massive randomized testing to confirm the hyper spread of the virus.
Once that is confirmed, the only logical choice is to do what I've outlined.
Each day that goes by, it will become more apparent that the virus has already
hyper spread. Eventually that will be confirmed, right now it just appears
they're going to get to that point unnecessarily slowly.

~~~
shadowprofile77
With this you're saying, in effect, that the virus then has a much lower
mortality rate than currently indicated by most of the CFR numbers in the more
heavily affected countries? Not necessarily doubting your claim, it has
plausibility at this point, i'm just curious. And if it is the case, then
places like Italy must have an enormous number of undocumented cases to
justify their current death counts.

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redhale
This [1] was the most sobering article I've read on this question. I really
hope it is too pessimistic.

[1] [https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-
pandem...](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-
social-distancing-18-months/)

~~~
keiferski
The problem with analyses like this is that they don’t factor in human
psychology, whatsoever. Keeping people locked in their houses for 18 months
isn’t going to happen. Trying to force it will result in economic and social
unrest that dwarfs virus deaths.

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CM30
Depends on the country and what they're doing right now, as well as how far
the situation has come there. I think it's probably going to peak in places
like Italy soon enough, likely within the next month or two. In places where
it hasn't peaked yet or not much was done to contain it (like the US), I can
see it lasting about twice that time, maybe three times as long.

Either way, it'll likely be about July/August before things have started to
calm down worldwide, and a bit later before things have completely returned to
normal.

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krueger71
As individuals we need some reliable way to know if we are immune and not
contagious. We probably also need some way to prove this to others. People who
have this status should be able to operate normally together with others and
keep things running during a long lock-down. It wouldn't make sense to keep
people locked inside if they can't catch or transmit the disease.

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nicholas73
The bare minimum we can do is quarantine for a month until warmer weather
arrives. Then we can see if that has an effect.

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keiferski
Zero chance that this full lockdown goes on for more than a month or two at
the most. The economies of the US and EU would be entirely destroyed and we'd
be in the Second Great Depression.

We're likely looking at a slow rollback of the quarantine over the next six
months. Expect a dramatic increase in medical personnel and supplies,
temperature testing in public, especially for entry to structures like malls
and subway stations, continued quarantine of at-risk populations, postponement
of large gatherings, and a rollout of experimental vaccines and treatments.

For the "second wave" in Fall/Winter, the plan will be to have massive medical
resources ready to handle a surge incoming cases. After the current economic
situation, I wouldn't expect another shut-down.

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AnimalMuppet
Related question: In the US, are we going to see domestic travel restrictions?
If so, how soon? And for how long?

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davchana
At least in India, Punjab, they have quarantined each county, limiting every
non essential travel.

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raarts
For a great overview and analysis of all countries, which ones did better and
why: [https://link.medium.com/bS1mllol14](https://link.medium.com/bS1mllol14)

(also read the followup)

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DanBC
Measures will be in place until at least August.

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zzo38computer
Some people told me from two to eight weeks, but I don't know. I live in
British Columbia, so would want to know what to do in British Columbia.

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kozak
Year to year and a half, until vaccine arrives?

~~~
anigbrowl
I think there will be disruption through at least the end of the year. The
second-order effects mean we'll still be dealing with aftermath for at least 5
years. It won't be going back to normal. On the upside, a decrease in
pollution. On the downside, that probably means next winter will be unusually
cold by recent standards.

