
Years of life lost due to the psychosocial consequences of COVID19 mitigation - Exmoor
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069716v3
======
lm28469
> Additionally, the present projection is not all- encompassing concerning
> potential effects of confinement: such as (prolonged) grief, elder abuse,
> this version posted May 2, 2020. The copyright holder for this preprint
> (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has
> granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made
> available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license . increase of
> sedentary lifestyle or change of diet. The pandemic is also likely to have
> multiple additional consequences including distress due to job losses and
> financial hardship. The projection also does not model potentially positive
> changes in behaviour, for example reductions in car accidents and air
> pollution. Due to frequent co-occurrence of certain phenomena it is possible
> that a single individual may be affected by more than one of the factors
> presented. When possible, data were adjusted for age, sex and
> socioeconomics. However, for several factors, possibilities to do so were
> impeded by virtue of limitations of the current literature

So basically "look at these nice numbers, they might or might not have a
meaning".

There are so many covariables, I have a hard time believing we have the tools
to even gather the data we'd need to produce useable results on that topic.

~~~
Exmoor
Yes, it's certainly a very rough estimate based on questionable analogs. It
is, however, the first attempt I've seen to make a scientific estimate of the
question I've seen asked so many times in HN threads over the last few months.

------
Exmoor
> Results: The study projects that the average person would suffer 0.205 YLL
> due to psychosocial consequence of COVID-19 mitigation measures. However,
> this loss would be entirely borne by 2.1% of the population, who will suffer
> an average 9.79 YLL.

Doing the math for the US, based on a population estimate of 330 million:

0.205 * 330million = 68,265,000 years of life lost based on the data lost
based on the data from this study.

68,265,000 / 78.6 years (Average life expectancy of the US [0]) = 866,511
lifetimes lost. IE, the same impact as this many 1 day old babies dying.

68,265,000 / 38.2 year (Median age of US resident [1]) = 1,787,041. IE, the
same impact as this many median age residents dying.

[0] [https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/life-
expectancy.htm](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/life-expectancy.htm)

[1] [https://www.statista.com/statistics/241494/median-age-of-
the...](https://www.statista.com/statistics/241494/median-age-of-the-us-
population/)

------
essence_sentry
They simply sum all the years of life lost. That would only be valid if the
causes of life lost were independent which is not the case.

