

Self-driving cars projected to reduce injuries by 90%, save $450B annually - alok-g
http://www.techspot.com/news/54458-self-driving-cars-projected-to-reduce-injuries-by-90-percent-save-450-billion-annually.html

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thesash
I can't wait to explain to my grandkids someday that back when I was young we
used to let humans drive big hunks of plastic and steel at breakneck speeds,
with nothing more than our laughably slow reflexes standing between life and
death. They'll rightfully think it was barbaric and tragic that we let
thousands of people died each year in accidents caused by distraction,
drunkenness, exhaustion, and plain old human error, all at the hands of people
granted the right to operate killing machines by way of a test passable by the
average teenager.

~~~
bolder88
Just to give a counterpoint (I know this opinion will be extremely unpopular
on HN)

I'd explain how there was a time when we were free to drive our own cars, and
make our own decisions. And simply hop in a car and drive.

Not like now where you get in the car and it asks you to download the latest
software update, then it monitors your every move, sending back data to the
car makers/NSA and showing you ads as you drive along at ridiculously slow
speeds. It'll probably also drive you past a certain shop if they pay the car
maker enough money! Oh no, the car has crashed. Better turn it off and on
again and hope for the best. Nothing like putting my life in some low paid
software engineers hands! Oh dear, the car maker has gone bust. Now you can't
get any software updates, and the software has stopped working as it can't
dial home anymore. Oh well, tough luck! You didn't really think you could
_buy_ a car to own and do what you want with did you? You can only pay
subscription fees for cars now.

Freedom is certainly a double edged sword. With freedom comes responsibility.
But taking away freedom isn't the answer. Making people more responsible is.

It's going to be pretty impossible to take away the peoples right to drive
cars (Even harder than taking away the right to bear arms in the US!) Stop
drinking the kool-aid. It's not going to happen.

I'm rooting for some massive disasters/scandals with self driven cars, to put
the idea to bed. And you can be pretty sure there will be some big disasters
if they ever get anywhere with it.

~~~
rubinelli
The attitude I see from younger generations is that the freedom to drive your
car is like the freedom to wash your dishes or balance your checkbook by hand.
Driving, specially in overcrowded cities, is increasingly seen as a chore and
a hassle. Getting rid of it means freeing up from one to four hours a day to
study, play, or talk to their friends.

If you want to keep driving as a hobby, I'm sure there will be some
accommodations made. But just as you can't tote a rifle in a downtown mall,
there will be some restrictions to make sure you don't endanger anyone.

~~~
jmccree
In many states, it'd be perfectly legal to tote a rifle in a downtown mall.

~~~
microcolonel
Good thing, those states have lower rates of murder with firearms I'd imagine.

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mmanfrin
I am really excited for the possible future of self-driving electric taxis.
All the pieces kind of fit together: you can use an app to dispatch and gauge
number of fleet vehicles to put out (Google just bought a huge stake in Uber),
self-driving cabs can return themselves for a recharge when low on batter and
another vehicle can replace it instantly, the amount of cars on the road can
scale with demand fluidly. There'd be no need for a car ever in a metro area.

~~~
jrs99
There would never be a need for a car in the suburbs. If i had an app that
would just bring me a car and be ready at an exact time right in front of my
house, bring me to a store and leave, and when twenty minutes before I'm done
shopping I order another taxi to be ready for me outside the store, not need
to go to the DMV or any auto shop, that would be a huge win for the suburbs.

~~~
cylinder
Being driverless doesn't mean this kind of thing is necessarily going to be
economically viable. You need density to optimize taxi operation and keep it
affordable. There would need to be a lot of taxis driving themselves around
for them to be so readily available in this kind of setting, and for that you
need widespread adoption.

~~~
DannoHung
Almost every non-rural area is going to be able to support the density
required. I mean, drive through any suburb and count the number of unoccupied
cars.

Honestly, the biggest issue (assuming the technology is flawless) is going to
be keeping them clean and maintained because of the very high usage rates.

~~~
cylinder
I think tech people are overestimating how much people enjoy having their own
car, as well as driving it. We see everything as something to be optimized,
and rightly see driving as a huge waste of time and energy. But, I'd venture
to say the majority won't give up their own cars in favor of driverless taxis.
Just think about how many people underutilize mass transit available to them
in favor of driving their own car.

~~~
pencilcheck
I think it's just a matter of perspective and whether they are used to the
tech, but I can see this technology being deployed in 10-20 years time, by
that time older people that don't trust tech will still not drive a car or use
a computer, those that wants to own a car would still owns a car, but I bet
the majority will hop on this new revenue of personal, car sharing system.

------
driver
One of the big advantages of completely self-driving cars will be for the
elderly. Thing about it, currently our grandparents and great-grandparents who
cannot drive anymore rely on family/ public transport and expensive taxis to
get around. Once we reach the age of our grandparents we will be much for
fortunate to be able to still travel independently wherever we want. This is a
massive plus to look forward to.

~~~
rogerbinns
Linked to this is deliveries. They can be made to your door front at any time
(eg the vehicle can require you use a code or scan something to unlock your
delivery). The drastically lower delivery costs would reduce the need to have
to go to various places.

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mistercow
And perversely, if accidents happened one tenth as often, they'd become news,
and people would think they were more common and dangerous than they do now.
The question is whether we can get to a point of no return with self-driving
cars before that effect takes hold.

~~~
freyrs3
I think most rational people would come to realize that even if the 1/10 of
deaths are caused by computer errors then at least the problem can be fixed
over time. With human error, there's not much you can do.

~~~
objclxt
> _if the 1 /10 of deaths are caused by computer errors then at least the
> problem can be fixed over time._

This only follows through if you don't introduce new technology and
innovations to your software (and thus new bugs), which isn't going to happen.

If you look at air travel, the number of fatal accidents occurring each decade
since the 1950s has stayed around the same, even though we've significantly
improved automated systems and reduced the potential for pilot error.

~~~
loolo
The number of accidents has perhaps stayed roughly the same but there's a hell
of a lot more planes flying every day now. So it's highly likely that the
accident rate per flight has dropped dramatically. (Though I don't have the
data handy to support either hypothesis).

~~~
jonmrodriguez
visakanv wrote this good comment: "This is correct. The better our flight
technology gets, the more we push our planes to fly in rough weather, etc."

visavanv, it looks like you got hellbanned between 10~14 days ago, possibly
because of:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6548892](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6548892)

------
jballanc
I think a lot of the objections/concerns in this thread would more-or-less
melt away when you consider that we already have practically self-flying
planes. Crashes? Contingency protocols? Hacking? Bugs? All these have and are
continuing to be addressed by the airline industry.

In fact, while I don't know this for a fact, I would highly suspect that the
number of airline accidents that are the result of a flaw in the automated
systems is _dwarfed_ by the number of accidents caused by humans overriding
the automated systems.

(If you want a feel for just _how_ automated flying has become, I particularly
like this video of an A380 landing at SFO:
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3HKN-
FWNq0](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3HKN-FWNq0) . Just look at how much the
pilots _aren 't_ doing.)

~~~
glibgil
The objections will melt away when my self driving car pulls up to the curb, I
roll out of the bed I had installed in place of the back seat and I toss my
martini glass into the bin. The person next to me will care fuckall for safety
when they see all that comfort and distraction.

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rogerbinns
I wonder how the cars will deal with inevitable accidents - what does the self
driving car prioritise? If there is no choice but to hit one of two different
cars does it pick the one with the fewest occupants? Is there calculation of
likely injuries (eg bounce off two cars causing less severe injuries to both
than hitting one harder). Avoid all other vehicles resulting in more severe
injuries to the occupant?

Cars can't stop instantly and the energy has to go somewhere.

~~~
hrjet
This. I am reminded of Isaac Asimov's three robot rules.

I am also led to wonder, who will be implicated if an accident happens? What
if the auto-driving car has a bug? Or if it was infected with a virus or
hacked? What if the driver deliberately modified a self-driving car to cause
injury to a target?

~~~
loup-vaillant
> _What if the driver deliberately modified a self-driving car to cause injury
> to a target?_

The same as what would happen today if someone mess with the brakes?

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jl6
It's important to note that that $450bn isn't just ploughed into the ground
each year. That's the wages of taxi drivers, truck drivers, mechanics,
engineers, and all their associated support. While losing all that will be a
net win for the economy, we're talking about millions of people becoming
unemployed.

This is not a new problem. Automation has already rendered a very large part
of the world's population economically unnecessary.

~~~
PeterisP
As far as I understand from the article, they are talking about the estimated
benefit from _crashes_. If in the end we need less ER surgeons and less cars
go to junkyards then that is still clearly a good thing, as per classic
'broken window' economic thesis.

Anyway, truck driving is exactly the kind of job (e.g.,
[http://io9.com/5933246/why-truck-driving-is-one-of-the-
most-...](http://io9.com/5933246/why-truck-driving-is-one-of-the-most-
unhealthy-jobs-in-america) ) that we _should_ make sure that no homo sapiens
should be forced to do in the future.

------
landryraccoon
Does anyone think that self driving cars will lead to increased traffic? I
think they're an amazingly good idea, but a lot of people live close to the
city center and take public transportation because a long driving commute is a
pain. If you can work or surf the web while commuting, why not have an hour
and a half commute both ways? This could actually lead to way more driving and
way more petrol burned.

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nl
As a cyclist, I long for the day when all cars (and especially heavy trucks!)
are self driving.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
What about self driving bicycles? You just need to peddle, and the integrated
road traffic system removed the error prone human element completely from the
equation.

~~~
recursive
A bicyclist must adjust his weight to handle the bike. That seems tough to
automate away.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Gyros can do amazing things these days...i have no doubt we'll see something
like this in our lifetime (I'm hoping for a self balancing unicycle).

~~~
mike_esspe
It's called Solowheel: [http://solowheel.com/](http://solowheel.com/)

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papandrinko
When roads are fully automatic and electric, children will be able to play
outside again; roads and cities will become quiet places in which to think and
breathe

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TIJ
I am closely following the development of self driving cars specially at
google and i can assure everyone of its sophistication that it's the best
driver you can get for your car. I know you all would be aware of the fact but
i want to take this opportunity to state that is has covered thousands of
miles without a single accident isn't that an extraordinary achievement for a
car without a driver(but a computer instead) I will start to use the car the
first it launches if it fits my budget but i must say these are one of the
best developments of 21st century.

~~~
grogenaut
so in all of those thousands of miles no one has rear ended the cars?

Also call me when they get to tens of millions of miles, eg what's driven
every day in the US.

~~~
jpau
Quoth Wikpeida: "In August 2011, a human-controlled Google driverless car was
involved in a crash near Google headquarters in Mountain View, CA. Google has
stated that the car was being driven manually at the time of the accident. A
previous incident involved a Google driverless car being rear-ended while
stopped at a traffic light."

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_driverless_car#Incidents](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_driverless_car#Incidents)

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pjbrunet
Self-driving cars = more time online = $GOOG profit

~~~
rathish_g
Thats exactly that they are looking for.

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EricDeb
As someone who just had occipital nerve decompression surgery due to a
whiplash injury, I can say I am very excited for self-driving cars. The amount
of scar tissue the surgeon removed from those nerves was horrifying, and it
was a relatively minor accident.

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jrs99
one thing: I do NOT like the idea of riding in a self-driven car when the
majority of other cars are driven by humans. That doesn't seem ideal to me. I
worry about a self-driving car driving exactly the speed limit and not being
able to speed up whenever you need to, to either keep up with the traffic, or
when someone is tailgating you. Especially at night, when you are driving and
tired people drive straight up to you and don't slow down until the last
second. I want to speed up in those instances.

~~~
kevinnk
I think a solution for this would be to have the "self driving" speed limit be
10-15mph faster then the normal limit on highways. Since driverless cars can
react faster this wouldn't cause more accidents and it would allow driverless
cars to keep up with traffic. Plus, if traffic slows there's nothing stopping
the driverless car from slowing down as well.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Right. Speed limited are for humans. A computer could be allowed to
objectively select a safe speed to travel.

~~~
kingkilr
Speed limits aren't even for people, modern highway speed limits in the US
were set based on gas efficiency.

------
Osiris
It'll probably take at least 40-50 years before autonomous vehicles become the
norm. The interesting thing will be what happens in the meantime, when there's
a mix of autonomous and human driven vehicles.

Will the laws change to have 'autonomous only' lanes? Will they replace HOV
lanes? Will autonomous vehicles be allowed to make maneuvers that human driven
cars cannot in order to improve traffic flow, such as driving through red
lights if determined safe?

~~~
theblackswan
The tech can make it possible in just 5-7 years what matters is how much time
govt will take to formalize a law.. which probably you rightly said 40/50
years.

~~~
mattlutze
Also, getting people to buy them. There are still many, many cars from the mid
80's on the road, chugging along. The used car market is nothing to shake a
stick at.

I'm really, really hoping the manual drive cars abandoned for autonomous cars
are maximally recycled and not just left to rot in myriad junk yards.

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tikhonj
I also imagine that some sort of centralized routing could significantly
improve traffic and avoid major traffic jams. Networking protocols, but in the
real world :P.

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vladikoff
We can't even implement NFC payments because carriers are interested in the
percentage of the revenue. Sadly judging from this, there's no way self-
driving are going to be in mainstream reality. With all the insurance, oil and
other companies in the way.... I hope I'm proven wrong.

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DannoHung
I have a question that is possibly very simply answered: How do multiple LIDAR
systems interact when they are in a very close vicinity? Say bumper to bumper
traffic in NYC at rush hour?

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theblackswan
With this there would be huge possibilities of new age designer automatic-cars
as you will have all the place to yourself. Don't assume it to look anything
like regular cars. Infact some designs will enable people to live in it. It
would probably be auto-driven homes.

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theblackswan
It has some great cost advantages especially for those who run the business
with multiple taxi. You can grow your fleet without worrying about the human
resource.

Sadly technologies like these have not even point percentage acceptance.
Trains and planes are capable of auto driven since ages but we don't actually
see them put to use.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Auto pilots have been used on trains and planes for a long time. We just
haven't gotten rid of the human pilots on planes and most trains yet.

