
Stick a fork in it: Windows is done  - wagtail
http://www.zdnet.com/windows-its-over-7000013964/
======
TheCapn
In a way journalists writing this type of article over and over puts a little
fear in my heart. I don't ever intend or want to pass up my PC or laptop in
favor of a phone or tablet interface; as a content developer its just not
something I could ever see myself wanting to change. Sure, I own a smartphone
and tablet but they're recreational at best and often used only for efficiency
in my life, never a replacement for my PC where work gets done.

But what I mean when I say I'm afraid is that people _listen_ to these
articles. They _believe_ what is said and trumpet it across the skies for
everyone to hear. I'd gamble more than 90% of the consumer market are content
consumers exclusively; they don't see the need or benefits to having a
powerful machine that lives upon your desk. Its not mobile, its not sleek.
What happens next? Manufacturers follow that market and begin to neglect the
ways of old.

I never would believe the PC ever disappears but what I can see happening is
it becoming a more niche market. Prices will go up and selection will go down
as a result. It wont be soon but it will eventually happen. Perhaps I'm just
afraid of change like my father before me. Perhaps I'm a bit too stubborn for
my own good but whatever the reason I fear the day when finding a PC and OS
modern enough to fit my needs isn't as easy as it is now. Until then I'm just
going to keep on hoping the strong PC gaming market keeps the platform afloat.

~~~
dkrich
I think this overlooks one fairly major fact and the reason Microsoft became
one of the most valuable companies in the world: businesses have employees.
Employees use productivity software. Productivity software cannot run on a
tablet in any practical sense. Even if it could, most large companies (which
are Dell and Microsoft's bread and butter) lag a good 10 years behind
technology trends. This is why most employees are running Windows XP or 7 and
the same stodgy Office productivity software they've been using for 20 years.
It works and is universally accepted.

If there is ever a drop in demand large enough that would render the desktop
computer market small enough to halt production, I would bet that you will
find that you no longer use it for productivity either. I'm a developer too
and that is not a niche market. It's easy to think of it as such but the
reality is that old-fashioned productivity isn't going anywhere. Tablets have
replaced non-consumption and at best complement desktop machines.

~~~
Samuel_Michon
_“Businesses have employees. Employees use productivity software. Productivity
software cannot run on a tablet in any practical sense.”_

Employees stuck in offices use productivity software. There are so many
settings in which notebooks and desktops aren't practical, but tablets are.
Places where specialized software is required. Tablets deployed in retail,
healthcare, defense, airplanes, hospitality, parcel delivery, onsite sales and
repair, city councils, classrooms, elderly homes, etc etc.

Also, even productivity software works better on tablets in some cases.
Nowadays, I use OmniPlan for iPad instead of Microsoft Project and Apple
Numbers for iPad instead of the OS X version. I make website mockups on the
iPad instead of on the desktop. For what I need to do, it's faster and more
convenient.

~~~
dkrich
" _There are so many settings in which notebooks and desktops aren't
practical, but tablets are. Places where specialized software is required.
Tablets deployed in retail, healthcare, defense, airplanes, hospitality,
parcel delivery, onsite sales and repair, city councils, classrooms, elderly
homes, etc etc._ "

This is partially what I meant by "non-consumption." In few if any of those
environments are tablets _replacing_ desktops. They're making those jobs
easier to do by integrating software where previously it wasn't possible.
Perhaps it's replacing a clipboard and pen, but not really a desktop.

" _Also, even productivity software works better on tablets in some cases.
Nowadays, I use OmniPlan for iPad instead of Microsoft Project and Apple
Numbers for iPad instead of the OS X version. I make website mockups on the
iPad instead of on the desktop. For what I need to do, it's faster and more
convenient._ "

This may be true, but I would argue that this is what would be defined as a
niche market. People in corporate America using Word and Excel is not.

However I do recognize that this might not always be the case. The tablet may
come to surpass the desktop in enabling productivity which is why I said that
if manufacturers ever halted desktop production, he/she would likely not be
using desktops for productivity anymore, either. Chances are what he/she does
isn't all that unique compared to the overall market.

------
kenjackson
This guy has seemingly made a career out of being wrong about Windows.

Here's a quote from one of his other articles, "I can't say that I've looked
at Windows 7 nearly as closely as Kennedy has, but I've looked at Windows 7
enough to know that it's no real improvement on Vista."

It's too bad that "journalists" can be consistently wrong with impunity.

That said, based on his track record, Windows will probably have a bright
future.

~~~
aclevernickname
refresh our memories: how is Windows 7 a real improvement on Vista?

~~~
RyanMcGreal
Off the top of my head: it boots faster, it operates faster, it's more stable,
the interface is less bad (I hesitate to write "better"), and it dials down
the panicky Cancel or Allow dialogs.

~~~
Millennium
If I recall correctly, it system requirements are actually lower than Windows
7's as well. Way to go against the grain.

But that said, Windows 8's improvements are pretty much all under the hood:
they're not user-facing. It's no wonder people don't see them, because the
improvements are not designed to be seen. Unfortunately, that also means they
can't really be marketed except in very niche scenarios.

------
PonyGumbo
I'm using Windows 8 with the aftermarket StarDock start menu, and I've pretty
much forgotten that I'm not using Win7 until I accidentally blunder back into
Metro. I thought Metro was really neat for the first 20 minutes after I
upgraded - until I realized that the mail indicator inexplicably doesn't
connect to Outlook. It works with Windows Live/Outlook.com/Hotmail, but not
Microsoft's flagship office software suite.

------
cadetzero
"Windows is done". What a final statement.

PC sales may be mostly done. A desktop that was bought 10 years ago can still
run fine today - and many still are.

We reached a point in computing where upgrading doesn't make that big of a
difference. You can use the same machine for a decade or more without problem
if you're an end user, especially given so many rich web apps that don't
require high processing power.

~~~
bluedino
A Pentium 4 or Athlon XP 2700+ from 10 years ago has been unusable for all but
the simplest tasks for years. It would have also needed to be upgraded along
the way - it came from the factory with just 256MB or 512MB RAM. You can still
edit office documents and do some light web-surfing, but for todays
interactive sites and content it falls far behind the experience that an iPad
can provide.

~~~
cadetzero
My mom still has no problem using QuickBooks and doing all the required web
stuff at work with a Pentium 4 and 512mb ram. She literally just bought a new
desktop because quickbooks requires it.

In an office environment, she really doesn't need more.

------
TheAnimus
So a guy who was wrong last time he said it, says it again. Ho humm.

Thing is I think we all believe that the demand for desktops or high end
laptops is probably going to flatline. The classic example is graphics cards
for games. 15 years ago, a generation of cards made a massive difference to
the quality of the games visuals. Running Half-Life with software rendering
was awful compared to my Voodoo2.

Nowadays the progress is purely a small refinement, my desktop from 3 years
ago is still more than adequate. Meanwhile the other end of the scale people
don't want a proper PC, they want a locked down, does what it can simply, with
no side-effects life.

But to suggest the end of Windows is to ignore their core business model.

------
AndrewDucker
The big question is - what else do we want a desktop to do that they can't
already do?

I struggle to think of anything that Windows could add to its functionality
that would make me want a new version.

~~~
protomyth
There are still things that would benefit from faster PCs (e.g. VFX).

What I'm looking for is a form factor change to be part of the next wave
(Post-PC as Apple says). Something I can carry around and have all my files on
and be connected then plug in for bigger screens and more power.

Keeping all my files in the cloud is still a backup thing and not a live
thing. Connections cost too much and aren't very reliable.

------
francispelland
I love how it says "but the numbers show that Windows is coming to a dead
end". So where are the numbers for Windows sales in this article, I just see
PC sales. Typical journalism.

------
alok-g
>> but you know what device we'll still be using for most of our interactions?
It will be a PC, simply because it's easier to enter data with a real keyboard
than any other interface.

Real keyboards are nearly gone from the smartphone space. Several people I
have spoken to assert that keyboards will also be gone from the workplace in a
few years.

I have some ideas on how to enhance a real keyboard to make it more productive
and ergonomic. My key motivation behind these comes from I myself wanting such
a thing. However, I have been having mixed feelings about pursuing these due
to mixed feedback from friends, primarily because they think keyboards/PCs are
going away, or that getting external funding in this space would be nearly
impossible.

Do you have any advice on whether this area is worth pursuing or not? Are PCs
and real keyboards going to go away, or there are here to stay as OP says?

------
untog
As the article itself suggests, the better title would be "the desktop OS is
dying (to an extent)".

The author states that desktop PC sales are declining, tablet sales are
increasing, yet also states that sticking with Metro makes MS "idiots". Are
they supposed to use the desktop UI on tablets? Of course not.

~~~
redial
Of course, they are also not supposed to use a tablet UI on the desktop...

------
programminggeek
Windows isn't dead or dying. Laptop and desktop form factors aren't seen as
the primary or only way to interact with software anymore. Windows is the king
of desktop and laptop machines (by volume). iPad is the king of tablet/touch
computing. Android via cheaper tablets is taking the lower end. So, where does
Windows live on touch devices? Does it go head to head with the iPad or
Android? I don't think it has the apps or mindshare to do that.

Desktop and laptops are shrinking as the primary platform of computing, and
with it Windows. Shrinking, not dying.

------
evanhamilton
I don't think Windows is done because there's always going to be a market for
cheap(er) laptops and desktops. My girlfriend is a teacher. She can't afford a
Mac. She doesn't want a Chromebook because she spends time in locations with
no internet connection. She'll be buying a Windows machine for THOSE reasons.

Someone could absolutely disrupt Microsoft in the low-price market (and who
knows, Chromebook might get there) but we're not going to see everyone switch
to Macs just because the new Windows isn't great.

~~~
benburleson
I feel like there's some other alternative there...just having a hard time
putting my finger on it...I heard it's really cheap, maybe even free?

------
mariusmg
Yes, the OS with +90% market share is done. Idiot....

~~~
redial
I believe the point is that the market is shrinking, so Microsoft is now the
leader in a segment that gets more irrelevant every quarter while unable to
enter in any meaningful way to the mobile race.

~~~
WayneDB
Unable? I don't think so at all... Have you tried a Surface device? I got the
Pro - it's a full operating system in a device the size of an iPad, with Intel
i5 CPU and graphics. What's not to love?

I predict that Windows is going to be increasingly more available on smaller
mobile devices. Not much of a prediction because to me it's obvious that's the
direction they're heading in.

------
forgotAgain
A PC isn't a tablet nor is it a phone.

Microsoft should have their Windows people concentrate on the PC. Make it the
best desktop device possible.

They need a separate mobile group. Keep Balmer as CEO but when it comes to
mobile do the opposite of whatever he says. It worked for George:
<http://www.tv.com/shows/seinfeld/the-opposite-2326/>

------
RoryH
The huge market may keep Windows in the game longer than anticipated is the
often-overlooked monopoly they have with DirectX, and graphic drivers that
work (reference to my recent experience using Ubuntu for a while with nVidia
hardware)

------
protomyth
"Done" in the sense mainframes are done.

~~~
JimmaDaRustla
Very true; coding some COBOL in the background right now...

------
cafard
"I'm sure many people in 1491 thought that the Earth was flat, too."

You could look it up...

------
JungleGymSam
Why is this on HN?

------
recoiledsnake
It will be interesting to see Apple's Mac sales numbers this quarter. Last
quarter they were down close to 20% year-over-year.

My personal theory for some of the loss in sales is that PCs are lasting much
much longer than they used to. I just recently retired a laptop after using it
for 6 years and am still rocking a quad core PC that is over 5 years old. My
earlier computers were replaced earlier.

~~~
Terretta
> _My personal theory..._

"The Real Reason No One's Buying PCs Anymore: They've Gotten Too Good" —
[http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2013/04/12/why_pc_sa...](http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2013/04/12/why_pc_sales_are_declining_old_pcs_still_work_just_fine.html)

------
cooldeal
Does this mean it's time to lift the anti-monopoly restrictions on Microsoft
and Windows?

~~~
wyager
It might, if the article weren't so ridiculously overstated.

------
aclevernickname
It's a great time to be a Linux user.

10 Years ago, if you had told me that a linux-based OS would be beating Apple
and Microsoft's offerings, I would have called you a pie-in-the-sky dreamer.
Today, we're celebrating the natural conclusion of the Halloween Documents in
pure Ghandi style; They ignored us, then they laughed at us, then they fought
us. Now we've won.

