
Tesla Model 3 represented over 15% of September new car sales in The Netherlands - HNLurker2
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/03/the-netherlands-surpasses-wildest-predictions-for-tesla-model-3-sales/
======
socialdemocrat
Tesla is almost 25% of the sales in Norway. Counting Tesla's on the road has
started to become a bit silly.

Just walking up to my local grocery story in Oslo, I may see 6-7 Tesla's on
that short walk. I only realize how abnormal that is when it is when I travel
abroad. Spent several days in London and didn't see a single Tesla.

Spent a week in Spain and didn't even see an electric car at all. In Norway
there are Leafs, BMW i3, e-Golf, Teslas, Ionic, you name it going around all
the time.

What is interesting to observe is how it just accelerates. The more normal it
gets to drive electric the more people jump onboard. A lot of people are
reluctant to try something entirely different. But then they drive in their
friends electric car or sit in an electric cab etc and it all starts to look
really normal.

~~~
xyzzyz
That’s no surprise, since Norwegian government heavily penalizes ICE vehicles,
and advantages the electric cars. No VAT, no CO2 tax, and lots of other
incentives are involved.

If your goal is to upgrade your country’s vehicle fleet to electric, then
Norway is a good example that with enough government spending it can happen.
Don’t mistake it for “normal people jumping onboard electric train”, though,
they are jumping onboard tax incentives train.

~~~
cj
Also, price of gas is 2.5x higher in Norway than somewhere like the USA.

If you're in the USA and fill your tank once a week, you probably spend
~$2000/yr in gas. And that's how much you'd save in gas if you went electric.

In areas with higher fuel prices, the incentive is proportionally larger.

(That's ignoring the cost of paying your electric bill, not sure if that
changes the math much..)

~~~
free652
Yea, so the cost of electricity is 25c/kWh (NYC). 3 miles per kWh or 0.08 per
mile (not including charging efficiency).

City: 20 miles per gallon ($2.75/gal) or 0.13 per mile Highway: 30mpg or
0.09c. Hybrid: 40mpg or 0.07c.

Tesla is too expensive for a very little benefit, smaller EVs have tiny range.
Hybrids would be cheaper than a Tesla.

~~~
ramidarigaz
I had no idea electricity was so expensive in NYC. Also, I think 3 miles per
kWh is a bit pessimistic. Lifetime average for my Model 3 is 260 Wh/mi, which
works out to 3.8 mi/kWh. Given Colorado's ~$0.11/kWh, it all works out to just
under $0.03/mi which looks a lot more favorable against the other options.
It's still a heckin' expensive car though.

~~~
merpnderp
I pay the same rate, but if I switched to peak charging rates, I can pay only
$.025/kWh for most of the day. And then $.25/kWh during a few peak hours.
Making a Tesla a lot cheaper to drive.

------
tcmb
I live in an apartment complex in Berlin. We have a parking garage that
belongs to the complex. Unfortunately the housing company does not allow
installation of a wallbox in the garage, even if I paid for it myself. The
housing company is owned by the municipality. Large-scale adoption of electric
cars is unrealistic when the majority of people have nowhere to charge it.

~~~
hnarn
Anecdotally, around 40% of the electricity in Germany was generated from coal
in 2018, but in january 2019, a group of federal and state leaders as well as
industry representatives, environmentalists, and scientists made an agreement
to close all 84 coal plants in the country by 2038.[1]

Just as in many other parts of the world, expanding electrical consumption
through electric vehicles does not make sense if we also don't actively
decrease our dependency on fossil fuel.

[1]:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany#Coal_power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany#Coal_power)

~~~
ralusek
Isn't running an internal combustion engine in a car still substantially less
efficient than the power plant necessary to charge it, regardless of the fuel?

~~~
Faark
Not just that, ICE cars emit their shitty exhaust right where lots of people
live. Things are generally more complex than breaking it down to a single CO2
number make it appear, and I'm a bit uneasy that recent trend.

~~~
xyzzyz
Gasoline burns very cleanly in modern (that is, <10 years) vehicles, with
little to no emissions other than CO2, and most importantly, no particulate
pollution. Particulate pollution is much worse for diesel vehicles, though.

Compared to those two, though, coal power plants are dirty as hell, and I’d
take equivalent amount of car emissions to generate the same power over coal
any day.

~~~
Dumblydorr
I code at a hospital, which is in a poor neighborhood. The garbage exhaust on
my walk in to work from cheap old cars is unbelievable, to say nothing of 18
wheelers and huge trucks rolling through this poor neighboring neighborhood
all day. Kids living there are straight up taking lung and brain damage from
that exhaust. So it does grind my gears when people talk about coal EVs being
dirtier, they just dont think of poor minority kids who bear the brunt of
local city emissions of dirty ICE and diesel.

~~~
tyfon
Also when it's cold outside the "clean" engines are really dirty as the
catalytic converter do almost nothing at low temperatures.

"One of its biggest shortcomings is that it only works at a fairly high
temperature. When you start your car cold, the catalytic converter does almost
nothing to reduce the pollution in your exhaust." [1]

And when it's cold the car usually starts at someone home around where other
people live and that's where the pollution ends up.

For diesel engines that operate at lower temperatures this is even worse.

[1] [https://auto.howstuffworks.com/catalytic-
converter3.htm](https://auto.howstuffworks.com/catalytic-converter3.htm)

------
skrebbel
I suspect this is primarily because the tax for leasing an EV is going to
double by January (from 4% to 8%, vs 22% for ICEs, but still, double). So
people whose work perks includes a lease car and who have been considering
electrical, are all getting one quickly now. And the Model 3 is one of the
better EVs on the market, so there you go.

Model 3 sales in NL will drop tremendously in 2020.

~~~
henkslaaf
I am at this crossroards. Either I spend the money now, before December, and
drive cheaply or I wait another five years.

~~~
martijn9612
You're probably too late, the ordering date to get a model 3 for this year has
(almost) passed. They're saying that the order has to be confirmed before
today 22:00 (oct 6), otherwise Tesla cannot guarantee the 2019 delivery date.

[https://www.mistergreen.nl/tesla-
model-3-lease](https://www.mistergreen.nl/tesla-model-3-lease)

~~~
goodcanadian
I'm ignorant of Dutch law, so I may be off base, but I find taxes usually
apply as of the date of the contract, not the date of the delivery. So, if you
have a firm order, you are probably fine.

~~~
martijn9612
I'm pretty sure that here in The Netherlands it applies to the date the
vehicle receives a license plate.

The only think to remark is that ?two? years ago the same situation occurred
with the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, thousands were ordered and the end of the
year was approaching. A couple of people worked around the clock to register
them all before the 1st of January to ensure the tax benefits (At least that
is what I heard at that time).

------
craigsmansion
Tesla also has a final assembly plant in the Netherlands[1], nominally making
the brand "native" (like Volvo before them). That usually results in better
brand recognition and higher sales as well.

I recently saw a post on social media where someone couldn't go to the dentist
because the car was updating software.

From the discussion I understand there is a "grace period" of 2 weeks before
automatic updates, and that the software is needed for advanced features.

It was also mentioned that basic braking and steering functionality were also
dependent on updatable software, making it unsafe to use it as a regular car
when a software update is occurring.

Does anyone have more information on this?

[1][https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_facilities_in_Tilburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_facilities_in_Tilburg)

~~~
mmsimanga
As an African I really want an electric car that just has a speedometer,
airbags, range meter and nothing else. I can do without air condition, outside
temperature sensor ... We already struggling to fix the modern petrol and
diesel cars full of electronics.

~~~
kmlx
get the honda e:
[https://www.honda.co.uk/cars/new/honda-e/overview.html](https://www.honda.co.uk/cars/new/honda-e/overview.html)

tested it and it's truly a marvel.

~~~
EForEndeavour
I didn't know this existed - specs look interesting! ...But god, it looks _so
goofy_ for no reason whatsoever. The trend of intentionally unconventional-
looking EVs continues to baffle me. It's possible to stand out while not
looking dumpy/derpy.

~~~
Marsymars
I thought that was going to be much worse before clicking, akin to the VW XL1
for aerodynamics. To me, it looks pretty similar in "weirdness" to other small
cars like a Fiat 500 or Mini.

~~~
EForEndeavour
Whoa, I hadn't seen the VW XL1. The covered rear wheels look annoying, but my
first reaction to it is "cool!"

------
TicklishTiger
The one thing I really can not get over with Tesla is the dashboard. That
giant screen that looks so misplaced.

Cars always used to be the pinnacle of thought out design. And Tesla is
supposed to be catering the more stylish crowd I think.

I wonder how they decided to place a standard screen to the right of the
driver.

It will be interesting to see if other car manufacturers will adopt this
design decision. Then it would be a bit like in the smartphone world, where
ugly camera bumps on the back are the norm now.

There are almost no physical products that you can not get in a nice design
these days. Everything seems to exist in perfectly designed versions.
Headphones, tables, knifes, socks, glasses, lamps, bed sheets ... It's
fascinating that phones are the one type of product that fell off a cliff.
Will cars be next?

~~~
zaroth
I find the Tesla Model 3 aesthetically beautiful, and other cars rather
grotesque in comparison. It’s extremely forward thinking and intelligent
design, allowing for the user experience to constantly improve and be enhanced
with the regular software updates to come down.

There are now dozens of features in my car which didn’t even exist when I
bought it. UI refinements actually improve my driving experience one month to
the next. This is a level of service which is impossible to provide with a
hard-wired UI.

It’s also crucially important to acknowledge that all the main driving
interfaces are tactile buttons immediately within reach. Steering, blinkers,
wipers, high beams, gear select, AutoPilot, cruise speed, volume, track
selection, follow distance, windows, and hazard lights are all perfectly
positioned physical controls.

There is only a single control which might require a time sensitive activation
which is on the screen, and that is the defog.

Tesla also does a remarkable job automating away the need for many tasks which
in other cars might have you reaching for a knob or switch of some kind.

~~~
V_Terranova_Jr
Counterpoint, as a Model 3 owner.

The lack of tactile controls for things like climate controls, sound system,
etc., is very frustrating. I find myself having to mess around with the
touchscreen much more than I'd like while driving. You get used to the central
screen in lieu of a traditional dashboard pretty quickly, but I'd prefer more
traditional dashboard functions to be aligned to display(s) on the driver's
side.

I despise the lack of a traditional keyfob or non-phone means of
locking/unlocking the car other than the awkward keycard (only useful through
the driver's side).

It represents an extremely opinionated way of doing things. If you love life
with your iPhone and Apple's extremely opinionated way about how it should
work and how you should work with it, the Model 3 gives you something
approaching that. Smartphones have their utility, but I'm not the kind of
person that lives my digital life through one. I therefore have no love for
the idea of my car as a roadgoing smartphone. I also couldn't possibly give
less of a shit over Autopilot as we are so far away from that technology being
rigorous.

Interior materials, particularly the carpet, are cheap.

There are also significant privacy implications associated with the
connectivity, which Tesla does not do enough to address.

Things I do enjoy: the refreshing minimalism, the styling (though body panel
alignment still has room to improve), and the energy & drivetrain technology.
It is definitely enjoyable to drive. Driving our other combustion engine
hybrid is a steep step backward into a cruder era.

Bottom line: Tesla's energy & drivetrain technology are years ahead of other
manufacturers; if that matters to you, there is no current package like
Tesla's. I look forward to the time when more traditional auto manufacturers
catch up and I have well-engineered choices that don't require me to live with
Tesla/Elon's opinions on how an EV should work.

~~~
mulcahey
You can buy a key fob from Tesla that supports passive entry

[https://shop.tesla.com/product/model-3-key-
fob](https://shop.tesla.com/product/model-3-key-fob)

Personally, I am sticking with the phone, and I think that’s true for most
people.

~~~
V_Terranova_Jr
Cool, thanks! I hadn't spent any time researching options to deal with this
issue yet, so take this message as tempering that line of criticism.

------
Yuval_Halevi
As someone who lived in Amsterdam for one year (I'm originally from Israel)

I was extremely impressed by how the government create a solid infrastructure
for electric car owners to charge their car batteries.

~~~
buboard
That sounds a bit like they are solving rich people's problems

~~~
_ph_
Of all countries, the Netherlands would have an especially large incentive to
combat climate change, as large parts are already below the sea level. Also
pollution and noise due to car usage, are everyones problems. The government
isn't giving electric cars away, but providing infrastructure seems like a
good idea to me, as this is more difficult to provide as an individual. Also,
electric cars are not limited to "the rich". They are well available in the
price range most new cars are bought and even an used vehicle market is
developing.

~~~
buboard
It is absolutely great to reduce car usage. Amsterdam is already making it
very hard to own a car. But encouraging EVs actually increases car usage, EV
or not. There s the question of industry standards, whether the technologies
of today are final, and whether the electricity network can accomodate the
massive needs for electric power. This might be premature optimization. And
yeah, non-toy EVs are still a luxury item.

> Of all countries, the Netherlands would have an especially large incentive
> to combat climate change

OTOH they are the best in the world in dealing with sea levels. They 're
already up to 6-7m below sea level. The worst predictions for rising sea
levels are within average 2m. The Dutch are so good at it that countries
employ them to build their artificial islands.

~~~
contravariant
There's just the one place 6-7m below sea level really. If I recall correctly
the current infrastructure is capable of protecting against sea levels 6
meters _above_ average, but that includes tides and storms. A 2m rise in sea
levels could mean that all parts of the defence need to be raised a further
2m, and some of the natural defences (dunes etc.) might no longer be adequate.

------
baxtr
I worked for a large telco ten years back. When they wanted to look into the
future they always looked at the Netherlands, because they were usually 3-5
yrs ahead. Back then they realized that WhatsApp would kill all their SMS
revenues. However, they never acted on this insight...

------
timwaagh
at my (dutch) company, a relatively large number of employees is able to get
this car under the company lease program. which means they don't cost a thing,
except for the increase in income tax which is much lower for electric cars.
even people who do not care about environmental things at all get it because
it's fast, its sleek and its easy to operate.

~~~
tyfon
> even people who do not care about environmental things at all get it because
> it's fast, its sleek and its easy to operate.

This is the stated goal of Tesla. Make people buy electric cars because
they're better, not because of the environment. Then the environmental stuff
will follow but you can never convince the general population to give up
comfort for the greater good.

------
jacquesm
As soon as the tax situation normalizes this will drop back down again. There
is simply a limited time for people to act and get the full benefit of buying
an electric vehicle. This situation happens over and over again in different
places in the world whenever a particular tax advantage is about to end.

~~~
gok
That was also expected in the US but sales are up as the incentives have
phased out. (BEVs in general, not just Tesla)

~~~
rootusrootus
Well, the price has been dropping as well. I just bought a Tesla for about 55k
that was 72k a couple years ago. Even with less of a tax break it's still a
much better value.

------
sdan
Not surprising given the heavy taxes on gas cars and the Model 3's accuracy on
the luxury/price/features sweet spot.

~~~
ZeroGravitas
Not surprising due to electric cars being fundamentally better, in several
important ways, than the alternative and so beginning to climb the S curve to
inevitable total domination of the market.

That's the underlying reality that drives both the sales, the incentives and
Tesla's pricing and product decisions.

------
mindcrash
Someone who lives in the Netlerhands here:

This probably has something to do with the fact the discounted additional tax
liability for leased Teslas will go away soon and everybody planning to lease
a Tesla from that moment will need to pay more taxes.

So everybody who wants a Tesla is signing leasing contracts for them like
crazy right now.

------
jbverschoor
Taxes will increase x2 in 2020 when leasing an electric car.

~~~
the-dude
More accurate : the EV tax deduction will be dialed back. There has been some
controversy about the deduction as it has totalled way more than projected.

And it is interpreted by some ( me too ) as a tax relief for rich people.

------
patfla
Tesla can now, more or less, build cars in volume and that's great.

The problem is profitability and, at present levels of profitability, the
current stock price is not at all justified.

------
mogadsheu
>The Dutch numbers are inflated by lavish incentives. In the next fiscal year,
the incentives in the UK will be even more lavish.

Norway was an early adopter of large subsidies/driving perks for EVs. It looks
like other countries are following suit.

This obviously bodes well for Tesla—-I wonder if anybody has insight about
what this could mean for Chinese EVs if they make it to Europe.

~~~
tyfon
There are basically no subsidies for EVs in Norway, only tax relief. The
government is not paying anyone to use EVs.

Some municipals have free public charging stations but that's up to the locals
to decide.

~~~
martinald
Tax relief is pretty much exactly the same as subsidies though. If the
Norwegian govt didn't bother doing EV tax relief, they would get another x
billion NOK in taxes sitting in the treasury. It's no different to giving the
billions of NOK as a discount on the purchase price like other countries.

~~~
tyfon
There is a huge difference. In one instance they government pays direct money
to make something cheaper.

In the other they do not collect tax on something. The argument that the
"could have had" the money is moot because they never had it in the first
place like with subsidies.

It's like saying the US government is subsidising iphones since they could
have had 100% sales tax on them but do not.

And lastly, the tax they collect on the ICE cars is a pollution and/or CO2 tax
so it is not applicable to EVs anyway as they do not have an indirect cost to
society in form of pollution. I think they should tax ICE cars even more and
same with petrol and CO2 release in general.

------
jpalomaki
Note that the chart is about the specific models. For example VW and Ford have
two models on this list.

------
spodek
Given Holland and that the site is for clean technology, I'm curious its
fraction of total _vehicle_ sales, including bicycles.

------
Jsharm
Whats the UK incentive coming next year they are referring to?

------
amelius
At what point will it become a safety issue if X% of cars in a multi-story
garage are electric, considering both the fire-safety of batteries and their
weight?

~~~
steelframe
> considering both the fire-safety

Some people may jump on you about the fire-safety of Tesla cars (or BEVs in
general), but I want to get ahead of that with a link to the Highway Loss Data
Institute's December 2018 report for 2016-2018 motor vehicles, where the Tesla
Model X had a RCF (Relative Claim Frequency) of 192, the second-worse score
for vehicles in its class, and the Tesla Model S had a RCF of 140, the worst
in its class.

Because the report covers model years 2016-2018, the Model 3 wasn't included
in the analysis. Regardless, the point about the relative aptitude of Tesla-
manufactured BEVs to catch fire in non-crash scenarios is well made by that
report.

[https://www.iihs.org/media/c93b98d8-6a7d-44a1-810e-4468ec539...](https://www.iihs.org/media/c93b98d8-6a7d-44a1-810e-4468ec539e05/uIu4tg/HLDI%20Research/Fire%20losses/HLDI_FireLosses_1218.pdf)

~~~
kjksf
There's lies, damn lies and statistics.

Yes, Model X (at 192) is second highest in its class.

It's also better than any passenger car in top 10 (lowest at 204) and better
than any pickup truck in top 10 (lowest at 205).

So if we care about fire safety, we should replace every passenger car and
pick up with the "terrible" Model X.

Also worth noting that, to my knowledge, there wasn't a single non-crash fire
in Model 3, which points to a dramatic improvement in battery safety from
Model S/X to Model 3, even from the baseline of "much better than most
passenger cars and pick up trucks".

~~~
steelframe
> Also worth noting that, to my knowledge, there wasn't a single non-crash
> fire in Model 3

Before the HLDI report came out, were you aware that there were 20 insurance
claims for non-crash fires between the Model S and the Model X over 2 years of
time?

Not everybody goes running to social media when their car catches on fire.
Perhaps we should wait until the next HLDI report comes out for 2019-2020
before we make presumptions about how often the Model 3 catches fire.

------
99chrisbard
Everyone should be driving electric-bicycles. Cars only for special occasions.

