
Electric Vehicles Cost Less Than Half as Much to Drive - rbanffy
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2018/01/14/electric-vehicles-cost-less-than-half-as-much-to-drive/#61ab5e023f97
======
dragontamer
So, I personally would consider electric for my next car, due 2025 if my
current car lasts 10 years. That's overall my goal for car replacements: once
per decade (or longer).

However, I have friends who lease cars, because they always want the latest
and greatest. Others, who are a bit less savvy with their money, simply sell
their cars (for a significant loss) and buy something new every 3 or 4 years.
Still others crash their cars and need a new one.

Which brings up the question: if an Electric Vehicle saves $650/year, maybe
$800/year once you include 2x oil changes + misc expenses per year, then an
Electric Vehicle only breaks even (over a period of 10 years) if its within
$8000 of the ICE car.

That's my case: where I hold the car for 10 years. The "big" maintenance
items: engine rebuilds or whatnot, don't seem to be necessary in the first 10
years of a modern car's life anymore. Tires are the next most expensive thing,
but electric cars also need their tires replaced.

If you're one of my friends who NEEDS a new car all the time (for some...
reason...), then even a $2400 premium would be too costly and it'd be better
to buy ICE.

~~~
aphextron
>If you're one of my friends who NEEDS a new car all the time (for some...
reason...), then even a $2400 premium would be too costly and it'd be better
to buy ICE.

It will not be a premium by 2025. EV's right now are where hybrids were at in
2005, and in 2025 they will be where hybrids are at now in terms of market
share. It will become a normal, sensible choice for people buying a new small
car. Cheap (<$20k) EV's with 200+ mile range will be commonplace within 5
years. Lithium battery prices have fallen by an order of magnitude over the
past 10 years, to below $140/kWh, and it's projected to cut that almost in
half by 2025. At that price, something with similar capabilities to a current
generation Nissan Leaf will sell for around $15-20k new. And with the battery
being the only meaningful component which can degrade, cars will now last
decades in dry climates with zero maintenance, perhaps needing a battery
switch at 10 year intervals.

~~~
singingboyo
This only works if EVs can be charged easily, everywhere.

That is not currently the case, and given that I currently see no planning
around this, I don't expect it to be the case by 2025 either. I briefly (very
briefly) considered either a plugin hybrid or a full-electric vehicle.
However, I can't charge anywhere - and that's a deal breaker. In 8 years,
there will probably be somewhere I can charge, but not easily, and not without
thinking about it ahead of time.

EVs may reach the point of economic viability, but the lack of infrastructure
sure looks like it will drag down their market share.

~~~
dragontamer
By "Electric" btw, my current expectation for 2025 is that I'll buy a plug-in
Hybrid at that time.

I can charge at home / go to work each day, but then use the gas station for
longer drives. IE: Volt or Prius have this sort of functionality. And surely
newer vehicles (by 2025) will also support a similar use case.

Tech probably will get better, but in my experience, long-term predictions
tend to be overly optimistic. Fusion has been 10 years away for 50 years,
electric cars too have been overly optimistic for quite some time. ($35,000
Model 3 doesn't exist yet. Only high-end ones as Tesla hasn't figured out the
kinks yet, despite "launching" last August)

Sometimes tech advances more quickly than expected (ie: high-speed internet).
So if a very widespread electric network were built (and no, Tesla's
supercharger isn't there yet for my use cases), then I might consider a pure
electric vehicle at that time. But 2025 is a long ways away, so its something
I'll just have to evaluate each year up to that point.

~~~
rbanffy
Pure EVs will be cheaper simply because they are easier to build. Wheel-
attached motors drive costs down significantly, removing hundreds of
manufacturing steps.

