
Ask HN: Is there academic research on the effectiveness of estimation in scrum? - fjahr
It would be especially interesting to see results about improvement of accuracy over time.
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blcArmadillo
Not specific to scrum but I am reminded of a part from Peopleware:

"The most surprising part of the 1985 Jeffery-Lawrence study appeared at the
very end, when they investigated the productivity of 24 projects for which no
estimates were prepared at all. These projects far outperformed all the others
(see Table 5-3)."

    
    
      Table 5-3 Productivity by Estimation Approach (Full Result)
      -----------------------------------------------------------------------
      Effort Estimate Prepared by   Average Productivity   Number of Projects
      -----------------------------------------------------------------------
      Programmer alone                     8.0                    19
      Supervisor alone                     6.6                    23
      Promgrammer & supervisor             7.8                    16
      System analyst                       9.5                    21
      (no estimate)                       12.0                    24
    

Source: [https://www.amazon.com/Peopleware-Productive-Projects-
Teams-...](https://www.amazon.com/Peopleware-Productive-Projects-Teams-
Second/dp/0932633439)

~~~
usgroup
This doesn't surprise me tbh. It's the same situation except you're not
shackled by yesterday's commitments and free to act independently of them .

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elviejo
There is no correlation between time duration and task estimation.

[https://www.iancarroll.com/2016/04/18/no-correlation-
between...](https://www.iancarroll.com/2016/04/18/no-correlation-between-
estimated-size-and-actual-time-taken/)

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AnimalMuppet
Not scrum-specific, and I don't recall whether it was backed by academic
research, but one of the rules in XP is that estimates longer than 3 weeks
were (more) unreliable. So if the estimate was longer than 3 weeks, you had to
break it up into chunks, each of which was 3 weeks or smaller.

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shubb
There is very little accademic research on Scrum.

This person has done some stuff on some aspects:
[https://collaboration.csc.ncsu.edu/laurie/publicationsAll.ht...](https://collaboration.csc.ncsu.edu/laurie/publicationsAll.html#Agile)

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UK-AL
It's generally hard to do academic research on these sorts of things.

Since you need multiple teams, building similar software in order to compare.

