
Temperature and Latitude to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID19 - DyslexicAtheist
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308
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mataug
PSA: There's a "download without registration" link on the bottom right of the
page, just in-case anyone missed it.

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SubiculumCode
Hard to know the extent to which likelihood to test for COVID-19 varies by
latitude. Still, apriori knowledge of these types of viruses makes this a
pretty good guess. Summer can't come fast enough.

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makomk
That depends. The thing that seems to be worrying public health professionals
is the potential for a second, larger resurgence in the autumn. If that hits
at the same time as an even moderately bad flu season, things will get really
ugly.

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aaron695
Africa and India seem to be proving this.

But it does mean countries coming into Winter should be worried.

Personally I think they should have been letting is spread before hand and
burning out as many paths in the network as possible while it's somewhat
containable.

I wouldn't want to be going into Winter.

That graph with the two lines one peaked the other flattened does leave out
the capacity of hospitals goes to very very low in flu season. It's designed
that way.

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everybodyknows
Apropos of this -- summer brings more UV light, which breaks a fair variety of
molecular bonds. But I've yet to come across any data on whether UV
deactivates coronavirus. Anyone?

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kadoban
Are there _any_ viruses not deactivated by UV pretty quickly?

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pengaru
Their March-April visualization shows Italy as being outside of the predicted
at-risk zone.

It's March 10th and Italy just announced a nation-wide quarantine, how does
this square with the model as predicted? Is it just too early to see? Will we
know by April if this model is useless if Italy continues to have covid-19
spreading?

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new_realist
The paper has Iran in the wrong zone.

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point78
Tldr: 10 - 15 degrees Celsius seems to be the hotspot.

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SubiculumCode
but also humidity is important.

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allovernow
I hope they're right but I worry these conclusions are premature.

There's evidence of community transmission in Singapore which currently has
rather warm and humid weather.

Honestly just look at the current world map[0] - it seems the statistics in
this paper may be out of date. Not to mention were starting to see early
spread in third world countries like India which are unlikely to
comprehensively test for it, at least not in the short term. The data in this
paper may be biased.

Given the relatively slow progression of the outbreaks, if Italy is any model,
India and South America are about to have a bad time in the next 3-6 weeks.
Let's hope otherwise.

0\.
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_...](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak_by_country_and_territory)

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point78
I've read a theory that the reason Singapore has so many is because of air
conditioning being used so much.

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cactus2093
What do you mean by "so many"? Singapore appears to be an amazing success
story in containing C19.

They are using aggressive contact tracing as part of that, so if it were
spreading like wildfire through A/C vents surely that wouldn't be effective
and they would have a much faster growth rate of cases.

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alonmower
I don't think the assertion is that it's spreading through vents, just that
spending time in a very air conditioned room mimics some of attributes of
winter that make the spread of respiratory viruses more likely (dry air, dry
nasal passages)

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lokedhs
There may be something to this. If you look at the actual cases in Singapore,
they seem to be clustered around two specific locations, one company and a
single event which I would presume was held inside a single big hall.

I'm in Singapore, and life here goes on pretty much as it always has. Except
for a larger than normal number of people wearing masks, you can't really tell
that this is ongoing.

That said, the government is doing a lot to keep it that way. There is
intensive contact tracing, and companies register people going in and out of
their offices (to help tracing), if you're sick you're supposed to stay at
home, and so on.

