
Guy Kawasaki: Can't spot a good investment, but he can run his mouth - transburgh
http://valleywag.com/tech/guy-kawasaki/cant-spot-a-good-investment-but-he-can-run-his-mouth-306166.php
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byrneseyeview
I wonder how useful a heuristic this is: when people who fail at something
tell you it's a crapshoot, and people who succeed tell you it's science.
[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]([http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-
Chance-Market...](http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-
Markets/dp/1587990717)) made some money in the market, but he says most
successful traders are lucky. But [John D.
Rockefeller]([http://www.amazon.com/Titan-Life-John-Rockefeller-
Sr/dp/0679...](http://www.amazon.com/Titan-Life-John-Rockefeller-
Sr/dp/0679438084)) made a lot more, and he said his money was foreordained.

Another data point: most successful gamblers seem to treat gambling as a
science; bad ones seem to have more OCD rituals to go along with their losing
streaks.

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jamesbritt
Taleb's books seem to make a good case, though, for market success featuring
considerable luck.

Also, a variation on this rule of thumb: When other people demonstrate a
remarkable skill (dancing, drawing, playing an instrument) it's talent. When
you can do it, it's hard work and practice.

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dcurtis
He's just a lucky guy with a valuable name and some intelligent things that he
regurgitates in his books.

Not very impressive. 250k old men with cats in their refrigerators? How
deluded do you have to be to think that about the blogosphere?

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chaostheory
he's pretty damn good at running his mouth though...

