
U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird - theslurmmustflo
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-22/tyson-foods-to-indefinitely-suspend-waterloo-operations-k9bbgnr9
======
hpoe
This is what concerns as many people have acted like the economy only effects
rich people, or any move that trades the economy for lives is inherently
immoral.

Food falls under the economy, the economy isn't just the stock market or
things rich people do rich people things in. The economy is the vast network
stretching across the globe that works to supply goods and services in the
places they are needed, when the economy starts shutting down so do a lot of
things we need for daily life. All the government stimulus in the world isn't
going to help anyone if there aren't goods to purchase.

~~~
empath75
In fact, government stimulus will just cause hyperinflation as more money
chases less goods and services.

~~~
vkou
1\. We would need to print quadrillions of dollars to get hyperinflation.
Hyperinflation is a boogieman, unless this administration completely loses its
mind.

2\. Recessions cause the destruction of money (Due to defaults, and lack of
new loans). This causes deflation. If the new money created by the printing
press does not exceed these deflationary pressures, you won't even get
inflation, let alone hyperinflation.

3\. Deflation is horrible, and is much more dangerous than mild inflation.

4\. The printed money is currently chasing investment assets (Mostly stocks),
not flour and ground beef. Our previous experience with QE did not result in
the prices of commodities inflating - only the prices of investments.

Inflation is not the problem.

~~~
missedthecue
>1\. We would need to print quadrillions of dollars to get hyperinflation.

Is there actually a mathematical equation that proves this or is that your
conjecture?

~~~
vkou
Look at the MZM, which is a good proxy for 'all the money in the economy'. [1]

There's ~20 Trillion of it.

Hyperinflation is, by definition, 50% monthly, ~600% annual inflation.

The Fed has, so far in this crisis, printed ~2 Trillion that is staying in the
economy (The rest goes into very short term liquidity). It's not a
hyperinflationary scenario, even if they print another 2, or 4, or 6 trillion.

If they printed 20 trillion, that would be another story.

[1]
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MZM](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MZM)

------
ZainRiz
More stories about how covid19 is really screwing up other parts of the supply
chain

Farmers being forced to pour milk down the drain:

[https://twitter.com/freshairfarmer/status/124787620556452659...](https://twitter.com/freshairfarmer/status/1247876205564526593?s=21)

Retail toilet paper manufacturers not setup to handle load from people pooping
at home instead of work (and corporate TP factories don't know how to sell to
grocery stores):

[https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-
about...](https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-
toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0)

Covid testing blocked because of equipment regulations:

[https://twitter.com/paulmromer/status/1249115887413743616](https://twitter.com/paulmromer/status/1249115887413743616)

~~~
perl4ever
Obviously you got to distinguish between problems that are going to get better
over time and those that are going to get worse. It seems like people are just
randomly assigning things to those categories. I mean, switching products from
B2B to B2C (toilet paper, milk, flour, etc) is obviously something that can't
happen instantly, but must be taking place as fast as humanly possible, right?
So if you're writing an article about impending doom in the coming weeks and
months, surely you need to pick a different topic, I would think.

~~~
vkou
>. I mean, switching products from B2B to B2C (toilet paper, milk, flour, etc)
is obviously something that can't happen instantly, but must be taking place
as fast as humanly possible, right?

No, because half the business world thinks that we're going to all re-open in
two weeks, and isn't willing to spend money on any kind of
retooling/restructuring for such a short period of time.

~~~
mlyle
Certainly it is happening. My local stores have small amounts of yeast in
little beverage cups with improvised seals, made by yeast manufacturers that
usually sell large quantities to restaurants and industrial bread producers.

They've also briefly had shitty 1ply commercial toilet paper with big plastic
bag and twist-tie packaging.

~~~
eesmith
But is it "taking place as fast as humanly possible"? I believe vkou's comment
is that 1/2 of the companies are not switching products, not that none are.

------
IIAOPSW
One pet peeve I have with this article is that it doesn't explicitly state the
cause of the shutdowns are Corona virus infected employees until half way
through. I was 90% sure, but there was still a chance of coincidence.

Anyway the meat industry isn't special. The whole economy needs to run on
stocked up supplies and skeleton crews for a while. That's why its so
important to get this right the first time. If the lock down only consists of
half-measures and the crisis is prolonged there aren't enough supplies to take
another shot at it. Scarily, I'm seeing a whole lot of half-measures right
now.

~~~
mlyle
That's not how it's going to work. There's no reasonable way to extinguish
this in one swell foop.

We need to move (ASAP) in jurisdictions where the virus is largely under
control, to half-measures that are hopefully sufficient to prevent another
large incident wave and that provide economic output/lets us "stock up again".
This will allow a slow reduction in population susceptibility. And we need to
be ready to tighten again if it looks like we're going to run out of ICU
capacity.

As bad as New York's response has been, treading right next to disaster/health
care overload, they may have attained a magical proportion of the population
where Rt is greatly reduced. I'm betting that when we have the serology study,
we'll find 15-30%, or even more-- of the population of NYC has antibodies-- a
good chunk of the way to herd immunity and enough to greatly reduce the amount
of control measures needed to control the virus.

~~~
bsder
> a good chunk of the way to herd immunity

Herd immunity isn't a solution if your immunity only lasts 6 months. This is
_NOT_ a flu virus--this is a Coronavirus--immunity is generally limited for
Coronaviruses(virii?).

If it's under 12 months, every flu season will likely also be Covid-19 season.

Cornavirus immunity seems to top out at about 24-36 months--if you're lucky.
SARS seems to be 24, IIRC.

~~~
mlyle
I think a reasonable somewhat pessimistic (but not worst-case) assumption is
that immunity is similar to common-cold coronaviruses; lifelong partial
protection, total protection for 24-36 months, some degree of cross-strain
reactivity.

Kissler et al published a really good analysis of kinematics and transmission
dynamics in Science based on what we know about human coronaviruses, cross-
immunity, etc. (Now that we are beginning to believe infection rates are even
higher in comparison to case counts than we believed before, it looks
pessimistic in various ways).

The research I've read on SARS-COV-1 shows a slower fall in antibody titers
than other human coronaviruses. Though, unfortunately, I'm unaware of any
study that followed patients past 3 years.

I believe that if you took one of the existing common cold coronaviruses, and
introduced it to an immunologically naive population, you'd get a huge
incident wave and a whole lot of excess death.

~~~
bsder
> I believe that if you took one of the existing common cold coronaviruses,
> and introduced it to an immunologically naive population, you'd get a huge
> incident wave and a whole lot of excess death.

Doubtful or you'd see waves of death in children from cold viruses. Common
cold viruses have had lots of time to evolve so that they transmit well but
don't kill very much.

Presumably it's also why our immune systems don't waste time building up
permanent immunity against them. There's much more of an evolutionary pressure
to be permanently immune to something that can kill or maim you, if you
survive.

~~~
mlyle
> Doubtful or you'd see waves of death in children from cold viruses.

We don't see waves of death in children from COVID-19. The juvenile immune
system is different. Children right now have the opportunity to pick up SARS-
COV-2 antibodies without a whole lot of personal risk. Elderly adults, not so
much.

> Doubtful or you'd see waves of death in children from cold viruses. Common
> cold viruses have had lots of time to evolve so that they transmit well but
> don't kill very much.

Everyone assumes that viruses evolve towards lower virulence, but this is only
one direction that things can be pressured to evolve. COVID-19 manages to have
a very high R0 by a high latent period. Producing a higher viral load enhances
spread / R0 but also causes eventual severe illness.

COVID-19's fatality rate is only a disadvantage inasmuch as it causes
population-wide behavior changes. It doesn't make people get excessively sick
and stay home in a way that they spread the disease less, so we can't really
be sure that it will evolve towards lower pathogenicity/virulence.

> There's much more of an evolutionary pressure to be permanently immune to
> something that can kill or maim you, if you survive.

We have plenty of things we don't build permanent immunity to that kill or
maim us-- including SARS-COV-2, MERS, malaria, etc. I doubt this is mankind's
first encounter with a really nasty coronavirus.

------
mlyle
One thing no one has mentioned in all these articles I've read. Everyone
mentions we have about a week of meat in cold storage, and that the level of
meat production is falling below typical demand.

But it's not like the spigot is turning off / we're stopping all production.
What's it falling to? If it's 85% of typical demand, that storage will stretch
for awhile, especially because many people may be choosing cheaper staples to
consume.

------
ortusdux
I am concerned that efforts to mitigate the damage from Covid-19 might open a
window for African Swine Flu to spread to the US. China has culled 40% of
their 440M pig population fighting the virus. There are promising vaccines in
the works, but until they come to market a domestic pork viral outbreak could
easily get out of hand while we are focused on C19.

[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00742-w](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00742-w)

------
flomk
I wonder if a meat shortage that causes people who previously hadn't eaten
plant substitutes, will be enough to let plant substitute companies take a
bigger chunk of the meat market for good.

~~~
wtallis
Are any of those plant substitute companies in a position to help offset a
meat supply shortfall in any meaningful way? Are the substitutes less labor-
intensive to produce or otherwise less affected by the coronavirus?

~~~
HuShifang
Impossible Foods is expanding its grocery store presence right now, and says
that its production plant is less susceptible than meatpacking plants due to
increased amounts of automation....

[https://www.sfchronicle.com/food/amp/Impossible-Burger-
comes...](https://www.sfchronicle.com/food/amp/Impossible-Burger-comes-to-Bay-
Area-grocery-15205534.php)

------
sjg007
Looks like I’ll be doing a lot of fishing this summer...

------
ZainRiz
Ramadan is starting just in time

------
cmurf
"the economy" is not any one thing, and this additional story is not enhancing
any "the economy" argument. It correctly means everyone should be getting in
line to sacrifice. And quite seriously HNers haven't sacrificed near enough.
Most are working from home. Most are getting paid. Most have decent health
care plans they don't have to worry about.

I've been reading HN for six years, and near as I can tell the vast majority
don't support any health care rights, let alone universal health care. It's
generally acceptable on HN that companies can fire people for being sick for
too many days. There's no federally mandated sick leave at all. HNer's don't
care about that.

I have more sympathy for HN interns who have lost their internships, except
about 10 seconds later I remember just how young they are. They'll be fine.

And there are all the delivery persons, sacrificing more than most anyone that
has the luxury of reading or writing here.

Very little is made on HN about how disproportionately health care workers are
sacrificing family, sanity, health, and their lives. For no extra pay. They
don't tend to get things like bonus pay at the end of the year, common among
the HN crowd. Essential workers, most especially the ones stocking grocery
stores full of jerks who refuse to wear masks or socially distance, likewise
have no health care rights. They don't get bonus pay. If they get sick and are
out of work for two months, they aren't assured they will be paid for time
they didn't work. HN doesn't care about that. Routinely arguing against
"socialist" laws that should try and make life actually fair, as contrary to
the free market. Whatever that is.

And very little is recognized on HN about the consequences about "reopening"
or "resuming" the economy on health care workers. It is a defacto demand: we
own you; you are our slaves; you must work to protect us; work harder;
sacrifice your lives; and above all, when the inevitably higher case load
explodes you will choose who lives and dies. That is your job. To decide. And
live with the scar of having chosen who lives and who dies. Deal with it. That
is the demand behind every single "reopen" argument.

Maybe let's try to avoid freaking out about maybe not having dead pig on our
sandwiches? It's degrading.

Those workers at shut down plants? They should have unemployment benefits pay
them in the vicinity of 80%, at the least. That is not the system we have.
HNer's don't care about that. It would be a competitive disincentive to free
markets if the government were to compete with shit jobs no one really wants.

You know, and then there's the minority who consider universal basic income
and universal health care from time to time. And I'm not talking about them.
They're they minority on HN, near as I can tell.

South Korea has twice the population of NY state, and yet NY state has 62x the
deaths. ROK and the U.S. had their first confirmed cases a day apart. It
should humiliate every American what has transpired. Federal, state, parties,
free market - across the board the result of deaths proves a culture wide
incompetency. It's embarrassing.

------
pascalxus
It's not commonly known but Vegetables, Grains and Beans are extremely
excellent sources of protein. Most of them have between 10-20% or more of
their calories from protein. if you want exact numbers, check out this:
[https://kale.world/c](https://kale.world/c)

And, if people reduce their meat consumption form these shortages, it could
have excellent results on people's health. The last time a country went
completely without meat or dairy was in durring the world war, when the Nazis
took all the dairy and meat from Sweden. Their rate of heart disease went down
dramatically for many years. As soon as the war ended and meat returned, the
rate of heart disease sky rocketed back to the original numbers. (source:
Forks over knives, a netflix documentary).

~~~
nscalf
Protein from those sources are not as bioavailable, and are therefore not
“extremely excellent sources of protein”. Also, forks over knives has been
disproven a hundred times over. Not saying everything in that doc is wrong,
but it has enough wrong that it is not a credible source of information.

~~~
pascalxus
The China Study, one of the largest ever undertaken has been vetted and
reviewed by 100s and thousands of scientists.

The case studies presented in the documentary are accurate and credible, with
numerous historical facts.

As for bioavailability, the difference isn't very huge and you'll get more
then enough amino acids from plant based sources without all the carcinogens
that come from animal based sources.

Animals do Not make their own protein. They all get it from plants. Plants
make the protein. Then the animals eat it. When you eat an animal, your just
eating recycled protein. So, why not just cut out the middle man.

Meat has many problems. Dr. Milton Mills a stanford doctor, explains it here:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nti7JrBOQAk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nti7JrBOQAk)

Also, the people who live in the blue zones (the 100yr+ zones) typically eat
very little or no meat/dairy.

