
Dear Volkswagen: you are probably doomed (but not because of diesel) - marcelsalathe
http://blog.salathe.com/dear-volkswagen-you-are-probably-doomed-but-not-because-of-diesel
======
infinotize
> Many of your top executives will go to jail.

So naiive. I would be very very surprised if anyone goes to jail over this. VW
is going to take a huge hit but doomed? Puhleeze... companies have survived
worse.

~~~
Maarten88
This is written from a US centric viewpoint by someone who sees VW as a niche
brand for environmentally aware people. But we are talking about the largest
car manufacturer in the world. In Europe VW is a mainstream car, people buy
them because they are economical and well built. I think most people in EU see
VW less as an especially "Green" brand so the reputation damage in their home
markets might be less severe.

And WV reacted like Lance Armstrong caught with doping: like cycling I'm
assuming all the other manufacturers are doing the same. Maybe they were less
aggressive or maybe they were just were not as successful with it, therefore
they were not caught, yet.

~~~
DanBC
The mainstream nature of diesel in EU makes the problem worse; dirty diesel
kills many people each year (about 9,000 in London alone) so VW have killed
(and contributed to the deaths of) many people over the years this fraud has
happened. This has cost the various health services billions of Euro.

~~~
jbapple
> dirty diesel kills many people each year (about 9,000 in London alone)

Here is a paper I found related to that claim:

"Understanding the Health Impacts of Air Pollution in London"

[https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/HIAinLondon_Ki...](https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/HIAinLondon_KingsReport_14072015_final_0.pdf)

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frungee
> Second, you haven't just duped millions of people into buying a product they
> would never have bought had they known the truth

This one made me laugh the most. All the potential buyers couldnt care less.

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vlehto
The weird part of this is that if you accept higher NOx emission, you can cut
fuel usage by ~20%. Since matter does not disappear, this also has to cut CO2
emissions by similar amount.

CO2 has global warming potential for at least hundred year scale. NOx has
chemical half life of decade or two.

WHO isn't really sure how much NOx you have to emit before it's dangerous.
Heating is however more culpable right now than vehicles.

I can't decide if Volkswagen is shitty thief or hero. It seems to be that the
NOx fuss might be overblown and the costs in CO2 emissions could be far worse.
Or not. Could someone enlighten me?

~~~
selimthegrim
Exactly my thoughts. I wish VW had had the balls to use this to lead a
discussion about lowering the cost of SCR on vehicles.

That and the complete lack of regulation of particulate emissions on the
supposed alternative GDI engines really galls me as a 2014 Jetta TDI owner

~~~
vlehto
Yes it seems weird. "We use this NO2 as indicator of particulate, as it's too
difficult to measure directly.."

Frankly I would not be surprised if Exxon, BP and Shell would have lobbied
these emission regulations. After all they get to sell 20% more diesel.

But again I might be completely wrong.

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planetjones
So the solution is to hire software engineers, abandon the motor car and build
autonomous vehicles.

I may be wrong but I just don't see self driving vehicles being the norm in
the next 30 years. If I were VW I wouldn't abandon the traditional motorcar
just yet.

~~~
melling
By 2045 we won't have figured out a way to have autonomous cars? If we can't
solve the problem by then I'd guess that we'll make the problem easier to
solve by adding smart roads.

~~~
planetjones
Smart roads? In the UK the councils are struggling to maintain the existing
roads. there is a huge difference from what would be possible with unlimited
resources and what will actually happen in the real world.

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Havoc
Seems a little over-dramatic.

Remember the GM switch story? Also had active deception for over a decade &
and worse people actually died (169) as a result. That cost them just over a
billion.

Even if the American regulator wants to make an example of them I doubt it'll
exceed 10bn. As for jail: I doubt anyone will end up in jail let alone "many"
of their executives.

~~~
aioprisan
That was not willful deception, along the lines of "we have the best ignition
system in the world!" and people bought those cars because of specific
features that were fraudulently and willfully marketed as such. How many more
people will now get cancer due to the carcinogens released by a 40x increase
in pollution from VW cars? It's out there to affect all of us now, thanks VW!

~~~
Havoc
>That was not willful deception

No? They realised a fault in their cars were actively killing people and opted
to not do anything about it. Thats closer to murder than wilful deception
really. As for the deception part - they silently redesigned the part but kept
the old part number so that it would fly under the radar.

Neither VW nor GM's behaviour is acceptable. Just pointing out that various
car manufacturers have a history of sketchy behaviour & I'd expect the fine
for this instance to be broadly in line with previous examples.

>cancer due to the carcinogens released by a 40x increase in pollution

I don't think N2O is significantly carcinogenic. The primary risk is
greenhouse effect risk as far as I understand. As I understand it the other
pollutants all made it below the thresholds without software sorcery, though
frankly who knows at this stage.

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return0
If americans cared about their car emissions america would be a different
country by now. People trust VW cars for their safety mainly, and this is not
a safety issue. Watch for VW sales in the next months. Autonomous cars may be
good for countries with good infrastructure, but they would be dangerous for
many european cities. In any case, now is a good time to buy VW stocks.

~~~
aioprisan
That's great that you can speak for all people and why they trust VW cars. Do
you still think they trust VW now?

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3pt14159
What _should_ happen, is that the claimants should tally up the damages and if
it is greater than cash on hand, Volkswagen should issue shares to make up the
difference. If that does not make up the difference, then the claimants should
get a pro-rata portion of the company stock and all original share holders
should lose their shares.

The reason for this is simple: the idea of a corporation is to shield
investors from personal liability - NOT - to shield them from loss due to
fraud.

What will actually happen is that the German government will meet with their
trading partners around the world and pressure them into limiting the damage
in order to protect German interests / pension funds.

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jpkeisala
Doomed? Like all other corporations that had been caught on false advertising
and frauds?

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hebdo
Volkswagen will certainly take a hit, but it is not going to collapse - the
German government will bail it any time it's necessary. An ordinary German
loves and cares about the national car-making industry, and quite rightfully
so.

~~~
aioprisan
VW stock plunged 40%, they've set aside billions but that won't be enough for
the lawsuits and massive fines that will get levied. Let's do some math. VW
has a $50B cap now. No one is going to buy VW cars for a while, so the
bleeding will continue. With 11 million cars affected and an average price of
$20-30k, even a $5k reimbursement or fine or fixes per car that's involved,
that's $55B that's gone up in smoke. Do you think that I, as a VW owner, will
be able to get a good car resale value, even after a fix that will likely
leave my car less powerful or get worse fuel economy? Those are your only two
options. The amount of willful deception and fraud that needed to take place
at all levels of this company's management will make a great study for what
not to do for decades to come. This company is done, the only option is for
the German government to step in and bankroll a large bailout package.

~~~
hebdo
You overestimate the damage. First, it only affects diesel engines.

Second, I'm not sure that 25% of the sticker price is an adequate
compensation. After all what needs to be done is these cars need to be
permanently reprogrammed, and as you say it means power reduction and worse
fuel economy. But by how much? It has been a few years now that we (as
customers) have to deal with the common industry practice of advertising
unrealistic fuel consumption statistics, so I'd say to some extent more car-
makers are similarly boned here.

Third, Volkswagen is a group, and owns quite a lot of brands: Audi, Bentley,
Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda, Volkswagen, Ducati, MAN, Scania,
Neoplan and Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles.

Fourth, it is common that such investigations go on for years without end.
Microsoft f.eg. did not pay a single penny for the IE antitrust case.

~~~
aioprisan
> First, it only affects diesel engines.

According to VW, it affects 11 million cars with type EA 189 engines: "In its
new statement, VW gave more details, admitting that "discrepancies" related to
vehicles with Type EA 189 engines and involved some 11 million vehicles
worldwide."
([http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/volkswagen-11-million-...](http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/volkswagen-11-million-
vehicles-could-have-suspect-software-emissions-scandal-n431456)).

>It has been a few years now that we (as customers) have to deal with the
common industry practice of advertising unrealistic fuel consumption
statistics, so I'd say to some extent more car-makers are similarly boned
here.

No, that would be fraud. Care to cite examples of such "common industry
practice"?

> Third, Volkswagen is a group

That won't make them less open to litigation.

> Fourth, it is common that such investigations go on for years without end.

Yes, investigation and litigation will take years, but effects will be felt
suddenly, such as VW cars not being able to get re-registered and driven on
roads since they don't comply with emission standards, causing economic
hardship and potentially larger lawsuits against VW. I think juries will be
rather sympathetic to a few testimonies to that effect.

------
mcphage
> Frankly, it's hard to see how you can come out of this alive.

If you can't see how VW will going to come out of this alive, then I'd stay
away from prognosticating. Also: clean off your glasses.

------
lispm
and I thought hacking the diesel engine is coal, I mean, cool:

[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/06/rolling-coal-
photos...](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/06/rolling-coal-photos-
video_n_5561477.html)

------
Programmatic
I own a TDI myself and this article seems a bit hasty in its logic. I have
mixed feelings at present, but the author's feelings don't seem to be well
thought out:

> As someone who just recently bought at VW diesel - my first VW ever, and
> almost certainly my last - I can of course only speak for myself. But
> everyone I've talked to feels pretty much exactly as I do. And if after some
> more independent analysis, the numbers come back and they are even close to
> what we currently read in the press (10-40x more pollutants than
> advertised), I will sell the car immediately even if it is at an almost
> total loss.

I agree not to reward Volkswagen's fraudulent behavior, but if everyone is
made whole as a result of this saga I am not sure that I have an issue with
Volkswagen moving forward. I certainly would not sell my car. The only actions
that make sense through the author's lens of wanting to be environmentally
conscious would be to fix the emissions or crush it. Selling it appears to
just move the problem to someone else.

>There is one, and only one reason why I would consider buying a VW in the
future: massively beat Tesla at their game. Abandon all fuel-powered
development today and invest every single cent into long-range electric cars,
and build the electric charging infrastructure throughout Europe and the US
(and the rest of the world). In addition, the development of the self-driving
car has to be your top priority. The car of the future has no human driver in
it, and of course you know this (anyone at VW who doesn't, let go of them
immediately).

The author believes that an entity engaged in a scandal for shady software
cheats should engage in making software that once again has the ability to
impact people other than their owners in order to make amends for their
current software cheat?

I can't say as I agree. I believe the amends that they need to make are: 1)
fix the emissions issues in all current and future cars, 2) make the
environment whole to the fullest extent possible. I'm not sure what options
are available for this, but fines and funding third party research would fit
the bill if nothing else, 3) make the owners of the cars whole: If the
emissions fix alters the car's attributes negatively I want to be compensated
for the delta from the car I actually bought.

> The new CEO, Matthias Müller from Porsche, thinks autonomous vehicles are an
> unjustifiable hype. I wish I was kidding, but I'm not: the VW board thought
> that the best person to replace the guy who oversaw the cheating software
> scandal (or was unaware of it) is a guy who seems to have even less
> appreciation of the ongoing software revolution.

Finally at the end of the article we get to some actual meat!! That is
unfortunate, and would be worth putting at the top of the article and
expanding on.

~~~
marcelsalathe
Appreciate your thoughts. A few comments:

\- I have thought about destroying / recycling the car. I am not sure this
would be the most meaningful action. At this point, I simply want to go to the
seller and return a product that is not as advertised.

\- I certainly agree that there are some intermediary steps that need to be
taken with the existing pipeline. I simply wanted to express that the future
has to be about batteries & software, and radically so given the current
scandal.

\- Adding a TLDR to the article now.

~~~
Programmatic
Appreciate it, the tl;dr focuses it quite a bit! Being able to return the
product would be the simplest way for the buyer to be made whole, and would be
incredible of VW to offer. I'd personally wait to see what the emissions fix
looks like before exercising it if they offered it.

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sajaki9
what a bunch of american Fud.

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sajaki9
american propaganda.

~~~
pavornyoh
@Sajaki9, did you even read the article? How is this an American propaganda?

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suryon
SW as a product is hard. No matter how good your backend or frontend if the
whole package does not fit perfectly together.

The germans are the most boring "innovators".

