

Predicting the Next Twitter - mattyb
http://www.telecoms.com/10511/predicting-the-next-twitter

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mburnett
An interesting viewpoint on what it takes to "predict" such influential events
(including the adoption of a particular product/service) is the _black swan
theory_. Nassim Nicholas Taleb seems to be very closely associated with it.

Basically, Taleb says the event must be:

1\. Quite difficult to predict

2\. Have an significant impact

3\. Be able to be explained rationally, after the fact

Examples include September 11th attacks, the personal computer, Google and
others.

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Read more about at your desired level of interest:

wiki: <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory>

video: <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDbuJtAiABA>

pdf: <http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ARTE.pdf>

book: [http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-
Improbable/dp...](http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-
Improbable/dp/1400063515)

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Note: I found the writing style of the author to be a little quirky. You may
want to read a sample chapter at local bookstore before going all in.

