
Bangalore has 12M residents and only 385 Covid-19 cases - utkarsh_apoorva
https://www.thequint.com/news/india/coronavirus-for-a-population-of-12-crore-why-bengaluru-has-only-300-covid-cases
======
Zenst
What has become clear is levels of testing and how deaths are recorded vary
greatly. So somebody in the UK who tested or even suspected of COVID-19 dieing
from a heart attack - that is recorded as covid-19 death, in somewhere like
Germany - that would be recorded as a heart attack, even if it is clear that
the illness caused the issue.

But one thing that has struck me as worrying, is the faily recorded cases -
looking at WHO data, always a spike on a friday! Why is that, backlog, testing
pattern or rush to get to the weekend - dunno, but a very clear trend until
recently and now seeing spike more common than that 7 day trend. IMHO, all the
signs of a second wave and a\ll the actions to enable it. Governments be
damned if they don't ease lockdown and damned if people still die.

But I do wished there was some better universal defined way deaths are
recorded as currently it is a fallacy to compare countries due to the nuances
of how deaths are recorded.

One thing I do know and been a concern of mine for months, once things ease -
how many poor postman and postwoman are going to be asked to record buildup of
mail at address - a solid indication that somebody died inside. Those deaths
are the ones which we are still to realise and they are out there awaiting to
be found.

[https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)
You can view the stats for daily cases there bottom right, expand that and hit
the daily cases tab - you can see the week trend most prominent and also the
changes to that recently that are not a good sign IMHO.

~~~
sjg007
Friday is probably a reporting deadline. You see similar spikes on Mondays
after the weekend. You would want to take a weekly average basically.. or some
do a 3 day rolling average.

------
stormdennis
In the UK non white ethnic groups and especially Bangladeshis have had the
highest mortality rate from Covid 19 and yet the countries they come from are
faring better than the UK is against the disease. The explanation for this
when it's found will be interesting, one factor might be climate and possible
vitamin D deficiency among these groups in Britain.

~~~
evbpcapfxy
The vitamin d connection might partially also explain why Sweden has a higher
mortality rate than its neighboring countries, because Sweden has accepted
more immigrants

~~~
FredrikMeyer
It is quite obvious that the reasons Sweden has > 3000 deaths and Norway has
less than 300 is because of much less severe restrictions. Sweden has twice
the population, but quite similar demographics.

~~~
ceilingcorner
Sweden has much more of an immigrant / foreign-born parent population. About
25%-30% vs. 13-15%.

 _As of 2017, Statistics Sweden reported that around 2,439,007 or 24.1% of the
inhabitants of Sweden were from a foreign background: that is, each such
person either had been born abroad or had been born in Sweden to two parents
who themselves had both been born abroad.[22] Also taking into account people
with only one parent born abroad, this number increases to almost a third in
2017._

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sweden#Migrati...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sweden#Migration)

Immigrants constituted 13% of the population at the start of 2015, and an
additional 2.6% were born in Norway by immigrant parents[12] (up from 8,3% and
1,5% in 2006[13]). The same year, 19% of births in Norway were to immigrant
parents.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Norway#Ethnici...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Norway#Ethnicity)

~~~
ikeyany
GP isn't denying they have more immigrants, they are saying it makes more
sense to point to their reaction to the pandemic than to point at their number
of immigrants. This explanation is both more simple and it doesn't have
strange racist undertones.

~~~
evbpcapfxy
Pointing out an observation in relation biology and vitamin d production, even
if totally incorrect, does not mean it's racist. If anything, if someone with
darker skin living in Sweden would get their vitamin d levels checked and
correct it because the comment above, it would help them.

~~~
ikeyany
> Sweden has much more of an immigrant / foreign-born parent population.

This was said in response to the statement that Sweden has 10x more deaths
than Norway.

------
latch
Vietnam at 0 deaths.

Singapore at 24 deaths (despite a relatively high number of cases).

There's a thread on the front page right now re Sweden's handling. A lot of
the comments seem to be trying to rate the performance of various European
countries against each other. I guess I'm missing something, because I'd just
categorize most of it as a disaster.

~~~
ceilingcorner
It seems more likely to me that the COVID reporting is shoddy, rather than the
implementation of some genius plan. Hundreds of thousands of people die every
year in Vietnam [1] and you're telling me there's a _zero_ percent chance that
some of them were miscategorized? Seems unlikely to me.

[https://www.statista.com/statistics/1101034/vietnam-
number-o...](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1101034/vietnam-number-of-
deaths/)

~~~
simion314
You can look at extra deaths and miscategorization is not a a giant problem.

~~~
ceilingcorner
The extra deaths thing also seems sketchy to me, this early after the
outbreak. If someone was within ±12 months of dying and the coronavirus got
them, then the death rates of the past month would be higher while the death
rates of the next year would still be the same. We are too early to make any
statements of fact about it.

~~~
simion314
You can wait a bit more and average things, but anyway this last point is not
part of miss-categorization point I was replying to.

~~~
ceilingcorner
> this last point is not part of miss-categorization point I was replying to

Yes, you're right, and I realized that just as I made the post. But I still
don't think that _normal rates of death_ automatically equal _coronavirus didn
't kill anyone._

~~~
simion314
You will have a margin of error , my main point is that even if some
politicians will push too miss=categorize the deaths, if the numbers are
sufficiently large things can't be hidden that way.

Do you have any statistics that show that if I die of COVID then this imply
that my probability to live 1 more year was very slim without COVID? This kind
of number as less then 1 year seems very non-scientific and more something you
would use to push your opinion, like yes 400K people died but 99% of them
would ahve been dead anyway in a few months

------
desikoder
In general, India has dealt unexpectedly well with this health crisis, given
it's lack of resources for health care (compared to other large economies).

Bengaluru, in particular, is better off because of relatively lesser number of
ghettos compared to other major cities in the country.

Considering it's a hub significantly driven by ITES money, what would be more
interesting to watch is how does it come out of it, now that it's quite
evident that IT processionals can quite capably work from home.

Would bengaluru still hold the crown of the IT of india or this will finally
incentivize the breaking down of budding metro cities?

~~~
onetimemanytime
>> _In general, India has dealt unexpectedly well with this health crisis,
given it 's lack of resources for health care (compared to other large
economies)._

Resources are overrated in these cases. Instead of modern police batons,
bamboo or simply wooden ones will work as well.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wNQ_V-
Ol78](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wNQ_V-Ol78) Let's how India does when
they have no option but to open up.

------
anilgulecha
Bangalorean here. What I saw was everyone followed the lockdown guidelines
very well when it was put in.

A bit worried now as it has relaxed, and the numbers are growing. Not sure if
the rate is lower or higher than similar cities. Anyone have data?

~~~
JoeAltmaier
According to data collected by Johns Hopkins, India has not yet had any effect
on controlling the geometric growth of Corona virus:

[https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

They do not have data broken down by region. Does India not report that?

~~~
klackerz
You can find regionwise data here.

[https://www.covid19india.org/](https://www.covid19india.org/)

------
ImaCake
I note the continued comments that are unable to believe that this virus can
be contained. While I am highly skeptical that India will be able to keep
cases down. Other wealthier countries certainly can.

Since I live in Australia, and hence in a country that has effectively
eliminated community spread. I would like to confirm that _we did actually
stop the virus_ and the government numbers are absolutely real. Lockdown is
basically over, people can socialise again, people are hiring, within-state
(but not inter-state) travel is now allowed almost everywhere. People are no
longer scared.

~~~
vcanales
What did Australia do? I can't help it but feel that my country is doing
everything absolutely wrong.

"As of 12:00 am June 3, 2020, Chile has 113,628 confirmed cases of COVID-19
within its borders. Chile remains in Phase 4 of the outbreak, i.e.,
uncontrolled and widespread community transmission."

~~~
jussij
> I can't help it but feel that my country is doing everything absolutely
> wrong.

Last year Australia suffer a horrendous year of nation wide bushfires
(wildfires) and the current government handled that response very badly.

For that disaster they where very slow to act and appeared to have very little
in the way of a plan.

I think they learnt a lot from that earlier mistake, because their handling of
the COVID-19 crisis has been almost perfect.

> What did Australia do?

The first response was to limit travel form overseas and to also require
anyone coming in from overseas to spend 14 days in quarantine.

The general public also went in lock down.

That meant you could only go outside to buy food, go to the doctor, go to the
chemist or go to work and you were also allowed 1 hour of limited exercise
every day.

Non essential business where force to close (pub, clubs gyms, restaurants,
etc).

Public spaces where people could congregate (i.e. beaches parks etc) where
also closed.

Businesses where encouraged to let their workers work from home where
possible.

All interstate travel basically came end as many states imposed border
closures.

Police would enforce these rules and they would also enforce social distancing
rules in public spaces.

For example if you where found to be outside of your local area you would get
a fine.

Also if you where found to be loitering in a public space you would get warned
and repeat offender fined.

Because of the forced business closures many people became instantly
unemployed.

To help with this disruption the government also introduced big changes to the
social welfare system to help people with this disruption.

It also introduce anti-eviction laws for renters.

These are just some of the changes made and they all helped the country get on
top of the virus.

Now after several months of these restrictions we are seeing the light at the
end of what has be a very dark tunnel.

~~~
ImaCake
This fits my own experience as an Australian. Nice clear write-up.

One thing I would add is that Australia had a plan ready to go before the
pandemic even hit [0]. Complete with already passed legislation.

0\.
[https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Cont...](https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/ohp-
ahmppi.htm)

------
francescopnpn
Reporting and testing across different countries is not equal by any means.
I'm always amazed by these headlines that mean literally nothing. Statistics
101? The conclusions you can actually derive by the deviation in deaths YoY
[https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#z-scores-by-
country](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#z-scores-by-country) are that
the least densely populated countries are the ones faring better. Germany
being the outlier. Taiwan did great because @n95s for every citizen.

------
manojlds
> The inability to control clusters like Dharavi in Mumbai, Koyambedu market
> in Chennai and the Tablighi Jamaat conference in Delhi, led to these
> respective city administrations losing control over COVID-19

Being a bit unfair to Chennai there, which was bombarded with both Tablighi
Jamaat cluster and Koyambedu (one of Asia's largest vegetable markets)

Also Chennai is testing highest in both units and per capita amongst Indian
cities, and death rate is at 0.8% compated to 2.3% for Bangalore which is not
mentioned.

~~~
intended
Mumbai and Delhi are also massive hubs for international travel, they were
going to be the gateways for the virus.

Not sure how to translate that list of cities.

~~~
manojlds
I was frankly surprised that Bangalore has been low given how much tech travel
within and outside India happens there. Hopefully things remain manageable as
lockdown eases more

~~~
intended
True! Bangalore has definitely gotten it right, making it a bright spot in the
news coming out of India.

I do remember one thing the Kerala Chief minister said to the Maharashtra CM
about the differences between their states and in particular Mumbai - Mumbai
has slums.

------
glaberficken
>"For a population of approximately 1.2 crores, Bengaluru city has had just
385 reported cases of COVID-19(...)"

TIL!
[https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/crore](https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/crore)

------
happy-go-lucky
During the lockdown, normally busy areas of the city have been largely
deserted.

Of course, there are concerns that the city likely is under-reporting the
incidence of infection, but as for fatality data you cannot hide mass deaths.

------
erfgh
It's because they don't test as much and they are not eager to mark deaths as
covid-19.

~~~
captain_price7
None of the countries who tried to hide it really succeeded, like Iran or
China. There is no reason to believe governments of India or Bangladesh are
more competent in this coverup business than those experts.

I'm a Bangladeshi and I don't trust my government a singe bit. Still, I
believe that while these numbers may not be exact, they are not wildly off the
mark either.

~~~
erfgh
It's not a coverup, they just don't care that much.

------
mytailorisrich
India's official numbers are exploding [1]. They were under lockdown, which
does not seem to have had any effect and which is now being relaxed. It does
not strike me as outstanding management.

I really don't know to make of official numbers in many countries, especially
when comparing among countries. They seem to go all over the place and it's
hard to make sense of them. Part of it, I think, is that we don't fully
understand the virus and I suspect a lot of natural causes will be found to
explain some of the differences.

[1]
[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/)

------
known
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Namibia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Namibia)
with 27 million population did even better. Just 23 cases and no deaths;

1st case was detected on 14th March; Same day Namibia suspended Air travel;

------
presiozo
> Apart from contact tracing, testing the right people helped the state keep a
> check on the spread.

I see this sentence a little problematic

------
icedchai
385 _reported_ cases. How many people have they tested?

~~~
umeshunni
It's right there in the article, if you could figure how to click on a link.

~~~
icedchai
A well written article would have it in the first paragraph.

------
lgleason
The warm climate probably helps the R numbers. That said, I don't think the
number is that low given the population density etc..

------
whoevercares
Ask any India or Vietnam people if they believe the number... don’t be so
naive those countries have every things to lose as well

~~~
coconut_crab
Vietnamese here, we totally trust the number because:

    
    
      - Every cases are documented and published on the medias (yes, I know that's not a good thing for privacy) to make contact tracing easier.
      - Vietnam is an authoritarian country with extensive public security apparatus so tracing and quarantining is easy. There have been cases that someone got quarantined because her friend who lives in other country tested positive, and that's after she returned to Vietnam.
      - Also the Communist Party of Vietnam has everything to lose if they can't handle this, so they are serious at containing covid 19. They even used cyber attacks on China to gain intel on how serious Ncov is back in December last year.
      - Most importantly, wartime like mass mobilization helped a lot. Every people did their part, the military set up quarantine camps and check points, disinfecting hotspot. The people cooperated with the guideline: avoiding going out, wearing mask or stay in quarantine if their areas has positive cases (the government will provided food and other necessities).
      - They do everything to keep the number of deaths at zero: The worst case, patient 91, was recently detached from ECMO after 2 months, his lung recovered from 10% to 40% capacity and he has woken up from coma. The cost for his treatment is $200k and counting, and he isn't even a Vietnam national!

~~~
whoevercares
Somehow I thought Vietnam was a democratic country.

------
nunez
...that we know of

------
ykevinator
Is this credible?

------
aerodog
Why were Jammu and Kashmir included in their chart? I thought that's not part
of India but a part their Hindu party is trying to forcibly take over.

~~~
crovona
Parts of the region are disputed between India, Pakistan and China. The state
of Jammu and Kashmir is a part of India, with regular elections and a
functioning assembly, although from time to time the central government keeps
intruding in state's affairs and has recently redefined certain parts as a
union territory. Citizens of J&K are citizens of India, but have certain
special rights.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jammu_and_Kashmir_(union_terri...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jammu_and_Kashmir_\(union_territory\))

