
Chinese Dominance of Rare-Earth Metals Threatens to Disrupt U.S. Manufacturing - ptmnds
https://globelynews.com/asia/chinese-dominance-of-rare-earth-metals-threatens-to-disrupt-u-s-manufacturing
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gamblor956
For about a month or two, after existing stocks have run down and before local
refineries have started up...

China's not the only source of rare earth metals...just the only location
currently willing to accept the environmental costs of _refining_ the ore to
extract the valuable stuff. Within the past week, 3 mining companies have
already announced plans for non-Chinese rare earth metal refineries, to be
sourced from the Mountain Pass mine in CA that provided nearly all of the
world's rare earth materials until the 1990s.

The mine is still very viable and was re-started several months ago. It was
originally shut down because it wasn't feasible to run with environmental
mitigation costs factored in...but now it's considered a strategic facility
and so it can count on the federal government to provide any financial support
needed on that front.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
They can be refined in environmental ways, it just costs a bit more money.
Domestic refiners shutdown because China underpriced them by not having sane
environmental regulations.

~~~
xyzzyz
_a bit more money_

Do you have any reference for how much exactly it would cost in less
environmentally harmful way?

~~~
tropo
Using made-up numbers, the problem goes roughly like this:

Start with a million tons of rock. Process it. Now you have 999998 tons of
very finely powdered rock, 1 ton of valuable product, and 1 ton of naturally
occurring radioactive waste. You aren't permitted to mix the radioactive waste
back into the rock, even though that is where it came from in the first place.

Among other things, you get thorium.

~~~
xref
The thorium itself possibly becoming a valuable commodity if Gen III/IV
nuclear reactors get built. It’s a very stable isotope (age of the universe
half-life so far) and doesn’t emit hard gamma radiation (though its daughters
do, but again very long half-life), store it up.

------
echelon
From what I've read, this looks like it's just posturing on China's part.
There are plenty of other sources that can be brought online quicky. The
bigger picture is what I'm trying to understand.

How real of a threat is the trade war to China? Could it cause a recession?
Worse? Will it have long-term effects for them?

Which party is likely to suffer the least, or gain the most?

Is the US planning on strong arming China long enough for other countries to
step in, eg. India, Vietnam, etc.?

What's the objective here? Is it to rebalance power, maintain the lead a
little longer, permanently knee-cap them, ...?

~~~
taiwanboy
It seems like once the old guards in the CCP rejected the reformist trade deal
in late May that the inevitable path for both countries is disentanglement.
Thus the 25% tariff hike on all Chinese imports possibly starting June 24.
Thus the crackdown on Chinese tech with ties to the Chinese government, such
as Huawei and DJI. We are now seeing the progression of complete separation of
US and China, economically and financially. Between two completely different
ideals: autocratic authoritarian, state sponsored economy vs republic, free
market

~~~
hxegon
I'd never thought about it like this... pretty scary. Our economic ties always
calmed my anxiety about a US-China war starting

~~~
taiwanboy
I wouldn’t worry, China is no shape to start a war with US. It is currently
facing 3 wars: political leadership - with Xi faction vs the old guards.
Internal population, with unrests in Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, and
economically suffering northeast and western region. And neighbors, with
Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, and India, over South sea. The CCP
doesn’t have the financial or political capital to fight any of the wars
currently.

A 4th war with the economic superpowers - US, EU, Japan would end with so
quickly with simply an economic sanction.

~~~
HillaryBriss
OTOH, we can say something similar about the US.

Trump has been battling investigations and possible impeachment hearings since
day one. Partisanship amongst voters is at a 40 year high. And the US is
waging the longest war in its entire history, with no proper resolution in
sight. Plus -- who knows? -- it might just start a brand new war against Iran.

The last thing the US needs is a military war with China.

~~~
tw04
A war with China won't be a war fought on the ground. It will almost assuredly
be a war of navies and cyber. The US can handle both in perpetuity. Neither
country wants to use nukes and the US has 0 interest in occupying China.

~~~
HillaryBriss
> The US can handle both in perpetuity

How can we be so sure?

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fma
Same thing happened in 2010. There were talks of restarting mining in the US
but obviously it didn't follow through. Those who do not learn history are
doomed to repeat it.

[https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2010/10/20/th...](https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2010/10/20/the-
truth-behind-the-chinese-rare-earths-embargo/#1290595f7846)

------
LargoLasskhyfv
So i remebered reading about this a few times in the last decade and thought
it would be good to give you clickety clicky links too:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_Pass_rare_earth_mine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_Pass_rare_earth_mine)

[https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/02/a-vis...](https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/02/a-visit-
to-the-only-american-mine-for-rare-earth-metals/253372/)

[https://www.hcn.org/articles/the-u-s-s-only-rare-earth-
mine-...](https://www.hcn.org/articles/the-u-s-s-only-rare-earth-mine-files-
bankruptcy)

[https://www.hcn.org/issues/47.11/why-rare-earth-mining-in-
th...](https://www.hcn.org/issues/47.11/why-rare-earth-mining-in-the-west-is-
a-bust)

[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-27/the-
calif...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-27/the-californian-
rare-earths-mine-caught-between-trump-and-china)

This is only a few miles away:

[https://www.viator.com/tours/Las-Vegas/Hidden-Valley-and-
Pri...](https://www.viator.com/tours/Las-Vegas/Hidden-Valley-and-Primm-Valley-
Extreme-RZR-Tour-from-Las-Vegas/d684-3501O0074)

[https://www.viator.com/tours/Las-Vegas/Hidden-Valley-and-
Pri...](https://www.viator.com/tours/Las-Vegas/Hidden-Valley-and-Primm-ATV-
Tour/d684-3501O0017)

[https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/125235906#map=11/35.5878/-...](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/125235906#map=11/35.5878/-115.3496)

Feel like MadMax!

/me wonders if they wash off the dust with spraying water, or something like
that afterwards for decontamination?

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cromwellian
Isn't it the case that some of these are waste materials of existing mining
activity and that some mines could tool up very quickly to refine them, only
it just wasn't economical to do so?

~~~
reasonablemann
Not sure if it's waste material, but yes, the only reason there isn't non-
Chinese supply is economics. If they ban export the economics changes quickly.

------
georgelyon
"However, a recent analysis of the current situation published by Barrons
suggests that alternative sourcing and better management of supply chains in
the rare-earth industry could help U.S. companies ward off a potential crisis"

Is buried at the end of the article as it undermines the whole clickbait
premise.

------
99_00
China is threatening to disrupt U.S. MANUFACTURING. If that's their response
to the blacklisting Huawei they are looking very weak and should just throw
int he towel.

~~~
Kapura
i don't recall China repeatedly stating that he wanted a trade war, then
unilaterally announcing tariffs on twitter leaving his own state department in
the lurch. I think there may have been another party doing all that stuff.

~~~
99_00
Correct, China would prefer to continue to not live up to its commitments for
20 more years.

------
hxegon
don't mean to make an offtopic request, but anyone have book or podcast
recommendations for learning more about the Chinese political situation?

~~~
mostlysimilar
I found Everything Under the Heavens to be rather enlightening.

[https://www.amazon.com/Everything-Under-Heavens-Chinas-
Globa...](https://www.amazon.com/Everything-Under-Heavens-Chinas-
Global/dp/0385353324)

~~~
hxegon
thanks, I'll check it out!

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MR4D
I think this is really unlikely to happen, because all Trump has to do is put
even higher tariffs on any goods that use said elements that are made in
China.

The impact would cripple Chinese exports to the US, which could put their
economy into recession - and a recession is the last thing that Xi wants to
deal with.

My gut tells me that the rare earths will be more subtle - such as export
slowdowns due to new paperwork requirements that magically appear. Much more
effective, and China doesn't have to look like the bad guy.

~~~
cududa
You’re assuming United States production facilities can just push a button and
they all turn on. Or that you can take what’s being produced in China and just
automatically produce it here?

~~~
MR4D
Neither actually.

I’m saying that if China bans the US for importing it that a trade war of
unimaginable consequences will be started.

Right now it’s just a scuffle.

