
Is Climate Change Behind the Syrian Civil War? - Thevet
http://www.historicalclimatology.com/blog/is-climate-change-behind-the-syrian-civil-war
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acqq
Just don't look at the policy behind the curtain!

[https://sites.google.com/site/onedemocraticstatesite/archive...](https://sites.google.com/site/onedemocraticstatesite/archives/what-
wikileaks-showed-us-about-u-s-motivations-in-syria)

"This is a key reason that WikiLeaks’ publishing of U.S. diplomatic cables was
so important."

"A December 13, 2006 cable [1], “Influencing the SARG [Syrian government] in
the End of 2006,” indicates that _as far back as 2006_ – five years before
“Arab Spring” protests in Syria – _destabilizing the Syrian government was a
central motivation of U.S. policy._ "

Accidentally, also before the drought.

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hga
Who _didn 't_ have a policy of destabilizing Syria? Besides the Great and
perhaps the Little Satan, many Sunni entities, right? With the Kurds and Turks
as an additional wildcard.

At the very least, Assad's only allies right now are Russia and various Shia
groups willing to work with the Alawites, specifically Hezbollah, various
Iraqi Shia, and Iran....

~~~
acqq
The quote was about "destabilizing Syrian government" not simply "Syria."

And the important point is: five years before the protests.

U.S. happens to be the only remaining superpower, so others aren't that
relevant, especially to understand why Obama insisted so long that "Assad must
go" and why the "moderates" are "supported" or "trained."

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superpower)

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_of
The original paper [1] is more interesting to read.

"Whether it was a primary or substantial factor is impossible to know, but
drought can lead to devastating consequences when coupled with preexisting
acute vulnerability, caused by poor policies and unsustainable land use
practices in Syria’s case and perpetuated by the slow and ineffective response
of the Assad regime (13)"

[1]
[http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241.full.pdf](http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241.full.pdf)

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noja
Comic:
[http://yearsoflivingdangerously.tumblr.com/post/86898140738/...](http://yearsoflivingdangerously.tumblr.com/post/86898140738/this-
comic-was-produced-in-partnership-by-years-of)

~~~
roflchoppa
its like literally peaking into the future

~~~
SixSigma
May. 26 2014

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bjourne
Not like the drought is limited to the Syrian border. Israel is their neighbor
and they have been doing fine through the drought (the non-occupied part that
is, still sucks to be Palestinian) because they had the foresight to build
desalination plants: [http://www.haaretz.com/israel-
news/science/.premium-1.659949](http://www.haaretz.com/israel-
news/science/.premium-1.659949) Like wine yards in the middle of a freaking
desert: [http://www.israel21c.org/winemakers-revive-ancient-negev-
win...](http://www.israel21c.org/winemakers-revive-ancient-negev-wine-route/)
So maybe it is climate change's fault, maybe it is stupid politicians not
investing in the infrastructure their people need...

~~~
maxander
Syria's government is pretty indefensible, but its also worth noting that
their GDP was approximately a third of Israel's before the civil war began
[1]. In most circumstances, climate change primarily effects the poorest-
which is viciously ironic, since they typically had the least to do with
bringing it about.

[1]
[https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&...](https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:ISR:EGY:SYR&ifdim=region&hl=en&dl=en&ind=false)

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hga
While I don't remember any serious evidence behind a bit of what you can
legitimately call "right wing propaganda": when the Arab "Spring" started it
was proposed that one of the causes was how US policy of burning food as fuel
(corn ethanol) was driving up world food prices. This was in reference most
especially to Egypt, which has to import half its calories.

To the extent there may have been a secular increase in the price of basic
grains at the same time all this was happening through Syria, it's worth
considering.

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anovikov
But in general, we have less war in the world now than 60 or even 30 years
ago. So either there is no negative climate change, or this theory is far from
perfect.

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bad_user
I don't get the connection. Nobody is claiming that all wars in the last 30 to
60 years are due to climate change.

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ocschwar
There's historical precedent. The reason the American Revolution was in
Massachusetts was that Boston was full of apprentices sent in from the
countryside. Young men, barely paid, under pressure, and fully aware that of
7-8 apprentices in a house, only one can succeed the master. And at the age
when men think with their dongs.

~~~
acqq
I don't see that the article mentions explicitly: the population of Syria was
9 million in 1980, 12 million in 1990 and 20 million in 2010. So there were
certainly a lot of young people, including young men.

~~~
sonthonax
I didn't know Syria's population grew so much in that last 30 years. The
effects a nearly completely stagnant economy must have been really compounded
by that.

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colordrops
From Wikipedia:

Betteridge's law of headlines is an adage that states: "Any headline that ends
in a question mark can be answered by the word no."

This idea of climate change causing the Syrian civil war has been making the
rounds on various social media sites, and reeks of propaganda. Even the
slightest bit of research peeling back the history of events in Syria will
show that the war is mainly due to influence by external parties.

~~~
Daishiman
Syria became seriously unstable after having the largest drought in history.
That has obvious political and social consequences.

So no, what climate change does is create the conditions for greater
sensibility to the external actors' influence. There's nothing disputable in
that assertion.

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vaadu
Right, and the Benghazi attacks were the result of a video and if you like
your doctor, keep your doctor.

