
End Game: Cringely's predictions for 2009 - naish
http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2008/pulpit_20081216_005509.html
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bootload
_"... and Season 2 of NerdTV never appeared ..."_

sigh...

anyone care to have a stab at VC's becoming banks & tech becoming self
financing?

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hendler
"11) ... While investments in technology will continue, the really smart VCs
will realize there is a much better and more certain way to make a ton of
money in the short term: start a bank. ..."

I think he's right, in a way. I don't think we're talking about traditional
banks, but more like a federally sanctioned micro-loan enterprise. These
smaller lending facilities can be much more specialized. When I worked to get
a _secured_ loan in 1995 to start a multi-media business the bank officer
"didn't get it". And for that bank, it was the right choice. Mostly, I'd
really just like to see something replace credit cards as my loan device. When
money is near 0% and credit cards are nearing 30% (amortized daily accrual) -
these "banks" would have my interest.... err, I mean, business.

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Raphael
Individuals should just be allowed to borrow directly from the Fed.

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stcredzero
How do you vet them? I've run into a lot of people who would do that then
purposely default.

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nazgulnarsil
a micro-loan bank that lends only to college graduates in the tech sector
would probably be ultra competitive because default rates would so much lower
than average that they could give awesome rates.

who wants to start a 100% reserve bank, make profits in this manner and start
the honest banking revolution?

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olefoo
> because default rates would so much lower than average that they could give
> awesome rates.

That assumption should be questioned.

First off, most if not all new ventures lose money.

Second, if you are giving away free money you will attract scam artists.

Third, do normal banks consider engineers to be a better credit risk than say
lawyers?

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nazgulnarsil
I envision a YC like diligence process. More intensive than normal loans. But
people do it for the low rates.

