
What Experts Know About Covid-19 That They Didn't Know Then - elorant
https://elemental.medium.com/9-things-experts-know-about-covid-19-that-they-didnt-know-then-5f22819807c4
======
feralimal
Well, it is not a surprise that scientists converge on a more singular idea.
This is described in the Delphi method:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ap77w8FKYM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ap77w8FKYM)
where we see how people's minds are changed as they attempt to reach a
consensus.

But, we should remember that consensus on an answer doesn't actually mean it
is the right answer. It can be gamed - eg if you only choose scientists with a
particular background to respond in the consensus seeking process. The
selection of those inputting into the process needs to be free and open. If
not, and you select opinions from one group only, eg mechanical engineers, or
bacterial bioligists, you will get a very specific answer that reflects the
bias of those partaking in the process.

~~~
bookofjoe
FunFact: As an undergraduate at UCLA in the late 1960s, I answered an ad in
the Daily Bruin (school newspaper) for people to participate in a survey.

It turned out to be located at the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica, where on
Saturday mornings we participated in RAND's DELPHI project, which was
instrumental in establishing that non-experts working as a group could produce
estimates and predictions that were way more accurate than would be expected
about subjects they knew little or nothing about.

