
Weekly deaths in the US down by 7-10k for the week ending March 7 - nstj
https://twitter.com/sidsanghi/status/1244268782341799938
======
javagram
This data is not accurate. I flagged this post because the headline is
substantially wrong.

See
[https://twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status/1244433376741748736](https://twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status/1244433376741748736)
and also the link posted by rjtobin.

~~~
lvs
It's good that people are fast enough to error-correct bold claims before they
get too many eyeballs, but I am still shocked that smart people post these
things publicly with such authority without first thinking through how they
could be wrong. You're watching in real time what the value of the peer review
process is, even if it's slow.

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rjtobin
From the twitter thread, it seems like it’s a data error:
[https://mobile.twitter.com/mersenneary/status/12444399368766...](https://mobile.twitter.com/mersenneary/status/1244439936876654592)

At first it seems plausible, due to decreased traffic fatalities and so on.
But traffic fatalities are about ~3000 a month, this effect is 15-20x greater
than that. So it seems like there should be a high burden of proof here.

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partiallypro
Someone pointed out that this could be in part due to a backlog in reporting
from other causes of death due to the virus. I'm sure fewer accidents (auto,
medical, etc), also play a part. Even the OP (of the Tweet) admits this.

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adrianN
Where I live all nonessential medical interventions are on hold to free up
space in hospitals. I'd assume that lowers the death rate temporarily.

~~~
Exmoor
Perhaps in the short term, but in the long-term a weeks or months long delay
in care will likely cause an uptick in deaths. Many major issues are initially
caught as patients investigating what seem like minor issues, but turn out to
be cancer, etc.

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rasalas
Were the high numbers from early 2018 caused by bad winter weather?

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%9318_North_American...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%9318_North_American_winter)

edit: Or the flu season.

[https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html)
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%932018_United_State...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%932018_United_States_flu_season)

~~~
postalrat
Flu season. Also check out [http://www.euromomo.eu/](http://www.euromomo.eu/)

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nstj
@dang - I'm happy to pull this down, is there a correct mechanism for me to do
so? Or should I leave it as flagged.

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progfix
Ok, but with 150k covid infections already the numbers will rise sharply in
the next couple of weeks.

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sg47
Fewer accidents and mass shootings.

~~~
Proziam
You may know this already, but "mass shootings" account for a small number of
deaths per year compared to what the media portrays.

[1] In comparison, you're about 3x more likely to be killed by choking on your
food, 7x more likely to die in a fire, 91x more likely to die because of fall,
and 397x more likely to die in an accident of some kind.

[2]Overall, violence is becoming less common over time despite the [3]increase
in privately owned firearms in the US.

[1][https://www.businessinsider.com/us-gun-death-murder-risk-
sta...](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-gun-death-murder-risk-
statistics-2018-3)

[2][https://www.themarshallproject.org/2019/09/30/new-fbi-
data-v...](https://www.themarshallproject.org/2019/09/30/new-fbi-data-violent-
crime-still-falling)

[3][https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/19/there...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/19/there-
are-more-guns-than-people-in-the-united-states-according-to-a-new-study-of-
global-firearm-ownership/)

~~~
postalrat
At least in the USA if you are shot and killed odds are much higher you
committed suicide compared to getting shot by someone else.

~~~
Proziam
Even according to 'anti-gun' sources you're about twice as likely to commit
suicide with a firearm than to be a victim of a gun-related homicide.

[https://lawcenter.giffords.org/facts/gun-violence-
statistics...](https://lawcenter.giffords.org/facts/gun-violence-statistics/)

All deaths are tragic, but given that violence overall has been falling for
decades, at the same time that gun ownership is increasing, I find it
difficult to attribute the violence to firearms rather than to social factors.

I often think about how many of these deaths would be prevented if we took all
the 'anti-gun' money and poured it into our health care system to support
people with mental illnesses.

