
Can Mathematics Unlock the Secrets of Terrorism? - toni
http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2009/0324math_terrorism.shtml
======
adamBA
Im sorry, but unless this 'math' is going to educate these terrorists, it's
not going to do anything. How do you beat something that has no concern for
self preservation? Kind of sounds like the race to find psychics during the
World Wars...

------
giardini
I'm surprised to see decision trees referenced: they are unsuitable for
modeling real-world situations unless _every_ possible alternative can be
determined aforehand, something simply impossible for terrorism (or for most
human activity, for that matter).

~~~
trapper
Possible scenarios can easily be abstracted. E.g. Building attack, car bomb,
etc etc. They have the data.

~~~
giardini
Certainly scenarios can be and are described but not all possible scenarios
can be listed because they are infinite in number, And this is true in a non-
trivial sense.

When you say "They have the data." I assume you are speaking of statistics.
But

\- These are rare events and statistical analysis is at it's limits,

\- The past is no predictor of the future. Example: the introduction and
continued enhancement of IEDs in Iraq.

Although he doesn't elaborate on my first point above, I recommend that you
also read Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book, "The Black Swan".

------
__
"Can mathematics unlock the secrets of x?" seems to be equivalent to "does
science work?"

