
An opinion piece: end of a PRC-USA trade war - baybal2
At G20, Xi Jingping conceded to Donald J Trump demands for end of the trade war.<p>At the surface, a win-win solution was achieved: more trade for both countries.<p>But in the political dimension, the conflict ended ruinously for Xi. Trump became a man who started and won this war. Xi took upon &quot;teaching America a lesson,&quot; and failed spectacularly at a great price to Chinese industry and middle class.<p>China lost its international standing, and US gained. Everybody sees that US can force its agenda in economic disputes even against China, and that China is a soft target.<p>Trump intentionally setup the conflict so Xi loses in any outcome: would Xi chicken out first, he will lose his strongman image; would he not, he will be seen as somebody who ruined Chinese economy to save his image. The only option where he could&#x27;ve won was to refuse both outcomes: start aggression on its own.<p>China has all things needed to not only hurt American rust belt and agricultural economy, but to totally ravage it. Besides being the biggest market for agricultural commodities, China has leverage in fertilisers, other agrochemicals, and veterinary supplies.<p>American tech companies became inseparable from China. Their very existence will be threatened if they loose China. That prospect alone can crash American stock market, and send pension funds into panic.<p>The conclusions here is that China has more to gain from breaking rules in international trade, than from continuing playing an unfair game.<p>Were China to succeed in trade war, it could&#x27;ve secured one more decade of prosperity and growth at cost of its relationship with US (which were doomed anyways.)<p>American needs China&#x27;s cheap exports and access to its economy more than China needs its exports to America. There are more avenues for growth for China if it breaks its engagement in US economy, and take initiative in building its own trade block, separate from WTO, and working according its own rules of the game.
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simonblack
Too soon to make definitive statements on what happened.

I see the US going ahead with 25% tariffs, no matter that there is supposed to
be a "truce".

I see China continuing to do things that upset the Americans.

I don't see the 'truce' as producing anything at all bar a press release.

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nutcracker46
No sympathy for China, or Xi's corrupt trade policies.

