
Study Links Uber and Lyft to Increase in U.S. Traffic Deaths - gotocake
http://www.thedrive.com/tech/24493/study-links-uber-and-lyft-to-increase-in-u-s-traffic-deaths
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jonchang
There's an interesting link to an analysis an (unaffiliated?) economist that
suggests the study's methodology is flawed, in that it doesn't properly
account for the simultaneous drop in gasoline prices (known to increase
driving and therefore traffic deaths) as well as being unable to explain rises
in death rates in both urban and rural areas (because Uber/Lyft are primarily
urban)

[http://cityobservatory.org/unsafe-uber-lethal-lyft-were-
skep...](http://cityobservatory.org/unsafe-uber-lethal-lyft-were-skeptical/)

~~~
antidesitter
Every time you see a claim like “study links X to Y” or “X is correlated with
Y”, you should _always always always_ remember that there are three
possibilities: X causes Y, Y causes X, or some third factor Z causes both X
and Y. I can’t understate the importance of thinking this way and not jumping
to unwarranted conclusions. You should also exercise your imagination by
trying to imagine _why_ each of these three possibilities might hold.

Edit: There's also the possibility of spurious correlations, as mentioned in
the comments below.

~~~
devonkim
I try to make this healthy skepticism / criticism a bit more succinct for
laymen by linking to spurious correlations [http://tylervigen.com/spurious-
correlations](http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations)

~~~
abathur
I see a lot of evidence that "thinking right" is astoundingly hard.

But I don't see very many statements from real humans of any field,
background, or level of intelligence/education that acknowledge the enormity
of the challenge.

I'm not sure it's "possible", but I think we're profoundly suffering for the
lack of an open-ended, recursive knowledge-production process more efficient
than what we've left up to the emergent behavior of a chaotic system.

~~~
sitkack
The Scientific Method can't be something we just learn and file away. Method
means it is being applied, we constantly need to practice and study in its
application. It is a way of being, not a fact.

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pmcollins
In my state, the phenomenon of attempting to drive while looking at and
manipulating one's phone is absolutely _epidemic_. When a light turns green,
the cars in front often don't move and the cars behind them often don't honk
because they're engaged with their smartphones too. It's particularly
disturbing when you're on a 50mph road with one lane in each direction and you
pass a car by a few feet going the other way at a closing speed of 100mph and
all you see is the other driver's eyelids and the top of their head.

The article mentions a 3% increase in deaths since 2011 despite cars getting
safer, but 2011 correlates to the start of the total ubiquity of the
smartphone as well.

On the other hand, I've had some very sketchy Uber/Lyft rides involving
extremely late lane changes, almost missing turns/offramps and trying to dive
in at the last second. The combination of often younger people who might end
up driving for Uber/Lyft, often driving unfamiliar routes, relying on the
instructions provided by a phone attached four feet away, while engaged in a
conversation with passengers, is probably generally not as safe as you driving
yourself along a familiar route.

But it would be quite a feat of analysis if anybody were able to disentangle
the effect of Uber/Lyft from other changes since 2011.

~~~
sitkack
Uber and Lyft also siphon off ridership from mass transit where the fatalities
are way lower.

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creato
I've had a lot of conversations with drivers that make me cringe. I've had a
few tell me about how they've been away from home driving for 24-48 hours,
sleeping in the car for a few hours at a time here and there. This article
doesn't seem to mention this as a factor but I wouldn't be surprised if
Uber/Lyft driver fatigue explains part of this study's findings.

My understanding is that the taxi medallion system originally came to be
because there was too much competition in the taxi business, leading to
corners being cut (e.g. maintenance) and overcrowding by taxis in certain
places. Maybe we're learning this lesson again? This level of competition has
brought a lot of convenience and comfort improvements over taxis. But from a
big picture point of view, I'm not sure that this level of competition is a
good thing. I almost wish Uber/Lyft were more expensive (and that money went
to drivers). I'd use them less, but I'd be happier about using it when I did.

~~~
majos
> almost wish Uber/Lyft were more expensive (and that money went to drivers).
> I'd use them less, but I'd be happier about using it when I did.

You can do this already using the tips on both platforms, which go entirely to
the driver. Unless your wish is that it were more expensive on a macro level.

~~~
dorfsmay
Tips are an after the fact, unilateral, non negotiated contract. The only
function they provide is a power trip. They should be discouraged. Industry
where it has been traditional to tips take the freedom to cut nominal pay, and
let customers on a power trip decide for the worker salary. They should not
exist in the 21st century.

~~~
codyb
Maybe that's so, and I support a worker's right to earn a living wage as much
as the next guy, but getting back to the states after being in Europe for
three months I'm seriously impressed by how much more attentative to my needs
servers are here.

And you know what? It's really nice.

The only difference seems to be the tipping culture.

~~~
dorfsmay
But that's true for non-tip workers too. Service is a bigger thing in the US
than it is in Europe. It's a cultural thing. Tips doesn't change that.

~~~
kazen44
as a european who visited the US a while ago, the "fake happiness" as i called
it was very offputting to me.

Like, people working dead-end service jobs act way to happy even when they
have no reason to be happy. it seems so forced and fake that it actually gives
me an unpleasant feeling.

I see little need why a cashier who makes minimum wage should always smile,
they are people too and can have a shitty day too?

~~~
jackvalentine
The insincerity of servers in US restaurants is shocking as an outsider when
you first experience it!

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drb91
This can’t be a surprise to anyone. I frequently have a driver who is
obviously different than the one pictured in the app. Some of the drivers I
get have been in the country for a matter of weeks or even days, leaving me to
wonder how Lyft or Uber verified their ability to drive to sufficient
standards—I’m guessing they do virtually nothing beyond confirming the name
matches a valid driver’s license.

Talk about an industry that needs regulation!

~~~
rasteau
> _I frequently have a driver who is obviously different than the one pictured
> in the app._

Do you continue the ride? Do you inform the company?

> _Talk about an industry that needs regulation!_

I infer that you use Uber/Lyft/etc despite your concerns. Why not instead vote
with your wallet, and use one of those nice, government-regulated taxicabs?

~~~
drb91
I don’t know what my personal actions have to do with what I’ve
observed—smells like ad hominem.

~~~
jack9
It sounds like you are an atypical user or distorting facts. No one I know
(including ppl who have driven for these services) has ever experienced any of
the problems you describe. I live in large metropolitan areas in the west
coast.

~~~
drb91
I’m not sure why your single data point would affect mine.

~~~
fierro
well, you effectively said, "I don't know how this can be a surprise to anyone
based on my single data point".

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jetcata
I no longer use Uber or Lyft because I’ve had more rides with drivers who I
would consider to be a “dangerous driver” than those I consider safe.

Many times the driver is in too big a rush to get their next fare, and they
drive erratically and over the speed limit whilst using their phone. I even
had a driver whose breath smelt like he’d been drinking. I just don’t feel
safe, and I don’t think these companies regulate or check how safe their
drivers are driving. I wonder whether there could be something in their driver
app that monitors the speed or safety of the driver when they have a passenger
in the car. I know that some insurance companies have apps like these.

~~~
stephen_g
I've not ever used Uber (Lyft isn't in my country I don't think) but I have
noticed a surprisingly high number of really bad drivers with Uber stickers on
their cars... I feel like the general standard of driving seems to have
seriously decreased since I started seeing the stickers a year or so ago
(before that Uber was technically illegal, so while it did operate, drivers
didn't advertise so much).

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fyfy18
Add to this Uber Eats and Deliveroo. Here in London they are very popular, and
most drivers use mopeds, which require very little training to get a license.
I regularly see them driving through red lights, speeding, driving dangerously
in general, and parking where they shouldn't.

~~~
rahimnathwani
In China, approximately 100% of food delivery folks use electric mopeds, which
(at least in Beijing) don't require a licence and don't require registration
(although the latter is due to change soon).

They don't generally speed, and their adherence to other traffic rules,
courteous parking etc. are indistinguishable from other vehicle users.

~~~
VoidWhisperer
That is China in specific, which is not representative of the larger world in
general, where people on mopeds for these apps are generally significantly
less adherent to traffic laws.

~~~
rahimnathwani
It may not be representative of the US, UK and Western Europe. But I'd be
surprised if China is unique.

Anyone here from Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand or India? Do food delivery riders
ride less cautiously/courteously than the general 2-wheeled population?

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elvirs
Uber and Lyft definitely put more shitty drivers out on the road constantly
cruising looking to pickup or drop off their riders in most not suitable
places with 0 regards to traffic, especially in NYC and suburbs. Uber and Lyft
pays so little that most of their drivers are definitely not qualified to
drive professionally but are doing it because they can't get any other job. I
forgot to mention that these drivers work for multiple ride-sharing companies
(at least 2 but sometimes up to 4 in NYC) and have multiple smartphones docked
to their dashboard constantly distracting them.

~~~
ralmidani
So is it the fault of Uber and Lift that the gig economy has become a thing?

I have a friend who fled Assad's genocide in Syria, has an accounting degree,
and is currently looking for a job. Guess what he's doing in the meantime...

~~~
elvirs
oh he fled Assad, that makes it okay for him to offer professional driver
services in a country where he just arrived with 0 assessment of his driving
skills. and in the meantime if he ends up causing an accident or two by
putting everyone's life in danger its okay because, remember, he fled Assad.

~~~
ralmidani
Who said he just arrived? Assad has been murdering people for almost 8 years.

A driver's license may not be a good indicator of driving skills, but it's
more than "0 assessment".

~~~
_justpassingby_
Just what was the point of giving his backstory?

~~~
ralmidani
Because he could have had a real job right now in Syria. I'm guessing most
people with accounting degrees would rather work as accountants than Uber
drivers.

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bougiefever
I would like to know how they eliminated confounding. Was there an increase in
other risky behaviors at the same time, like texting while driving? How many
of the deaths caused by accidents involved Uber or Lyft drivers? Maybe it's
click-baity.

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awakeasleep
Interesting how the Lyft spokesperson doesnt directly address the study’s
claims.

Instead they make other, unrelated claims about drunk driving safety
increases.

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m0dest
VMT = Vehicle Miles Traveled

The article makes extensive use of this acronym without defining it.

------
heydenberk
Anecdotally, as a cyclist, it sure feels like Uber drivers are trying to kill
me!

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bgutierrez
Shouldn't it be easy to see how many fatal accidents there were during rides?
Isn't there some kind of tracking of this by Lyft and Uber?

~~~
EvilTerran
They almost certainly track accident data for internal use, but I can't
imagine they'd ever want to share it.

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rticesterp
There’s also been an increase in smart phone use during the same period. I
cringe at the number of drivers I see that are fully engaged in their phones
while driving. It’s too bad that distracted driving has virtually cancelled
out any gains in safety that modern technology has provided (auto breaking,
blind spot assist, etc,) during the same time period.

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Tiktaalik
Unsurprising as we know that Lyft and Uber increase the amount of cars on the
road, and cars are dangerous and drivers kill people all the time.

We've known this for a century and yet we still do nothing about it.

The only way to make our cities safer is to reduce the amount of cars on the
road by limiting road expansion and creating transportation alternatives to
the car.

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PopeDotNinja
I wonder how many ridesharing deaths are related passengers not wearing
seatbelts. I certainly didn't wear seatbelts when I first got in Lyft and Uber
rides. I think was that because I never got into the habit of wearing
seatbelts in taxis for some reason.

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Neil44
The world is a big complicated place and it seems to me very hard to lay a
small shift in that metric on a specific companies doorstep. It's one of those
extrordinary claims / extrordinary proof things, and as such I find it
unproven.

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icotyl
When I'm crossing a street and a car flies through the intersection nearly
hitting me, it's usually an Uber driver. Were taxi drivers so desperate to
speed through cities and reach their next fare as quickly as possible?

~~~
aeternus
Yes, Taxi drivers were much worse about this. This is a gross generalization
but based on my experience Taxi drivers drive much more aggressively and have
more disregard for traffic laws, but are also generally more skilled.

