
Mobile is Eating the World - tomazstolfa
http://a16z.com/2014/10/28/mobile-is-eating-the-world/
======
cageface
_There is no point in drawing a distinction between the future of technology
and the future of mobile._

I find Evans' analysis of mobile a bit hyperbolic. Yes the growth of mobile is
explosive and, in some cases, it's displacing older technology. But for a lot
of use cases small touch screen devices are simply inadequate. It's probably
true that a lot of people that used to use desktop or laptop computers just to
check email and Facebook have shifted that activity to their phones and
tablets. But its equally true that these devices are still really only good
for quick, informal communication and browsing. Despite the best efforts of
Apple and Samsung to persuade us otherwise, tablets are lousy for getting real
work done.

So we find ourselves in the ironic situation of a domain that is experiencing
almost unprecedented growth but in which almost nobody is making money except
Facebook and the vendors of what are essentially gimmicky slot machine games.
My take on this is that the market for richer desktop/laptop software isn't
going anywhere soon. People that need to edit complex spreadsheets, compose
scores for films, analyze genomes, and render 3d effects need real computers.
As a developer this kind of customer is in many ways a better customer to
serve than a teen snapping selfies on a phone.

~~~
pfitzsimmons
If you look at the biomechanics, it does seem like a keyboard + mouse + >=20"
screen is the optimal setup for doing actual work. A keyboard is simply the
most efficient way to get information into a computer (the exception is that
some graphics editors work might work better with a multitouch screen, it will
be interesting to see if someone builds a touch-first photoshop killer). That
said, there might be a convergence where mobile devices learn to run desktop
software, and can be docked to a mouse/keyboard/monitor. But we are still a
long ways from that point, and there is no great incentive to build office
suites for mobile devices that are efficient for power/work users.

Mobile is great for 1) consuming content 2) interacting with your extended
environment when you are not grounded to a computer (summoning an Uber, paying
with an app, etc.) The money in content consumption will go to either the
content creators or the digital sharecroppers (Facebook).

So the question is, are there large untapped areas where a phone could be used
to interact with ones environment? What kind of day-to-day things could be
enhanced with internet connected software?

~~~
erikpukinskis
Your assumption, which I think is wrong, is that WPM (or maybe APM) is the
bottleneck for most work. I suspect reading/comprehension, problem solving,
planning, usability, and access to the right tool, discovery of tools,
responsiveness of tools, teamwork... These things are much more likely to be
the bottleneck.

As a programmer, I suspect I could probably type the entirity of a days work
into the computer in a half hour.

~~~
jacquesm
I can't even read a phone screen without reading glasses on, I absolutely
loathe reading more than a paragraph of text on one and I really couldn't
imagine getting any significant amount of work done on a mobile platform.

If we count tablets as mobile too (they're wireless after all and plenty of
them come with SIM slots) then the consumption part gets a bit better, in
landscape mode you can read PDFs on them but the part of work that requires
significant input would - for me - not be an option.

------
fidotron
Is this actually true? My perception is that the smartphone bubble is
bursting. Yes, there are lots more people to come online, but all they're
going to do is use WhatsApp and Facebook.

The big disappointment of mobile is that all this stuff doesn't seem to result
in enabling people to do their jobs better or more easily. Web apps really
exploded with things like Basecamp, but the most mobile has brought along for
that seems to be mobile email. (Edit to add, the only exceptions I can think
of to this are actually the SMS apps deployed in the places pegged to explode
in smartphone usage).

Having lots of people mindlessly addicted to notifications is not really that
interesting.

~~~
nickonline
Your focus on jobs and notifications is a little frustrating as there's a lot
more to life than working. For example, I just traveled to the USA for the
first time.

How do I get somewhere? Google maps will tell me the route, another app is
telling me when the bus next comes.

Where should I eat in this brand new city? Yelp will find me somewhere good.

Coffee (I'm not a fan of American style drip coffee)? Yelp again.

What should I check out today? Originally fully researched before leaving the
apartment/hotel, now I go to breakfast and look around, if it rains halfway
through the day I can come up with a new plan that involves being inside.

Getting my boarding pass? No longer do I need to print anything, just show
them my screen and they can scan the barcode off that.

Want to call home? No need for an expensive phone card, I can just use
whatsapp or viber to chat to my parents.

Get in a cab and don't want to be ripped off because of accent? Maps again
("please take the FDR, the traffic there isn't too bad").

For work: My contract is currently approaching it's end, I managed to set up
two interviews in my home from another country while on the go, never having
to stop and pull out my laptop

I would say that without my smartphone I would have had to spend a lot of time
asking locals, researching on a computer ahead of time, and generally looking
like a tourist with a massive tourist map (a good way to get pick pocketed).
As a result I was able to do most of my research on the move and really
streamline my holiday to something where I didn't need to sit down for a
couple hours each night to work out what to do tomorrow.

~~~
ececconi
This answer is excellent. It's also a great example of how technology just
disappears and allows you to get what you want to get done.

------
ams6110
From one of the slides: _Email is for grandparents_

I think this varies. I'm not a grandparent, but am close to 50 years old and
have been working in computer technology my entire adult life. I have an
Android smartphone (got my first one this year) but have not installed any
apps on it. Email, web browser, text messages, calendar, contacts, and maps
are all there and I can't really think of anything else useful I'd want it to
do.

My mother-in-law on the other hand IS a grandmother and she's constantly using
Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and half a dozen other things on her phone. I
don't see the point in any of it and don't use any of those things.

Not sure who is the outlier.

~~~
jrkelly
Yeah, my email usage at age 12-15 was also almost nil and that was in the 90s.
Doubt stats at 12-15 correlate well to whether those kids will use email when
they hit college.

~~~
jff
Agreed, I didn't have much use for email at 15, because I interacted with all
my classmates and teachers every day; coordinating things was simple, and all
my schoolwork was submitted in person. I primarily used email for asking
questions on Linux mailing lists, and even that pretty rarely--15 year old me
would probably be pretty shocked at my current level of email traffic.

------
Ologn
I mainly program Android apps, many for my side business.

Some people here have said "mobile has peaked". I go around with my Android
mobile phone, and I have trouble finding out what time stores close. I have
trouble finding nearby supermarkets. I certainly can't find out if
supermarkets have an item in stock, or if the item on sale. I can't find a
nearby bathroom to use.

We are nowhere near mobile peaking. Yes, there may be a little bubble now that
fizzles out before it comes back again. Kind of like how there was a website
bubble, which fizzled in 2000, and then four years later Facebook was started.
The day I can punch into my phone asking where I can buy a chair, and get back
most of the local stores, and what they have in stock, and for what price -
that is when the "smartphone bubble" is soon to "burst".

~~~
bbarn
And on that note, the more places mobile puts it's fingers, ultimately, the
more places that someone needs to make sure the finger points to the right
thing. Every google maps, yelp review, craigslist post, etc., needs someone
ultimately to vet it's place in reality before said reality can be made
useless by it. I think we're on the cusp of mobile overload, where we're going
to see more and more specialized mobile services made useless because we
simply don't have the manpower to wire them up well without taking that
manpower from something else.

So, while we may not be peaked in terms of what could be done, we're nearing
the point where what WILL be done is starting to look more and more focused on
the things that grab quick money.

Oddly, I think the next big revolution will be the generation that's tired of
being chained to their devices and subscriptions and services, and starts to
devolve back to actual interpersonal relationships. I'm seeing it every day
with those of us who grew up without it, had it, and realized that it's not
quite the silver bullet for living it marketed itself as.

Siri still sucks, Google maps still gets you lost, and visual studio still
blows on a touchscreen laptop.

------
diltonm
My smartphone has 2 Gigs of RAM and most of it is wasted. Games on phones
aren't even interesting because my fingers slide right off the screen when the
action gets fast. Give me a PC with 2 Gigs of RAM and I can do amazing things
with it, a mouse and a keyboard. Every single phone app I use is an exercise
in futility or it feels that way. Touch is a terrible HID. Smart phones are
handy when you don't have anything else but man I really prefer anything else,
I'm considering buying a Chrome laptop or Surface if I can wipe them and
install Ubuntu on them and can plug in a SIM card; not a bigger phone, a real
computer.

~~~
CalRobert
Remember when phones had keyboards? Like, actual physical keyboards that slid
out when you needed them and tucked away neatly when you didn't?

I really miss them :-(

~~~
tacoman
Given how huge the mobile phone industry, it don't understand why some
manufacturer* hasn't carved out a niche for keyboard phones. Since all the
manufactures have arrived at the roughly the same form factor and spec, maybe
we'll start to see one of them try something different again.

* Other than Blackberry. Despite being a BB10 user, I can understand why the general population isn't attracted to it.

~~~
CalRobert
You know, maybe it's time to see about sourcing a small keyboard, 4.5" or so
display, and trying to squeeze down an Odroid to make your own phone. Might
even make sense to make it wifi only and rely on Voip for some use cases.

------
Cyther606
By these figures, 80% of the world will be carrying a mobile spy tool by 2020.
I refuse to do anything on a mobile phone that is conceivably worse than
PG-13. Until mobile hardware is free and open, I only view the proliferation
of mobile Internet as a tool for human enslavement.

~~~
general_failure
Its not like PC hardware is open fully.

~~~
dublinben
It can be though, and generally is more open than any mobile hardware.

[https://www.fsf.org/resources/hw/endorsement/gluglug](https://www.fsf.org/resources/hw/endorsement/gluglug)

------
jerf
The western world right now is in a bit of a defeatist mood and pessimism
reigns supreme. And while I can't deny that all things end and in some sense
civilization is scheduled for some receding, I find myself wondering what
impact this sort of technology will have on that process. Technology is
speeding everything up so much and so fast... what if technology speeds up our
next "dark age" from centuries to decades... or decade... or mere years? What
if we're even already halfway through the decline?

We know technology is a big game changer. Sometimes we overestimate that
impact, but sometimes we underestimate it too. What will it do for everyone to
have a smartphone? Heck if I know! But perhaps it's reason for at least a
smidge of hope.

~~~
sillysaurus3
Well, smartphones simply enable you to do things that you can't otherwise do.
I don't think they'll have much of an effect on how long our next Dark Ages
lasts. The dark ages were primarily due to culture, not ability. Smartphones
enable culture to morph in interesting ways, but they don't override it.
People will still be people.

~~~
diltonm
>> Well, smartphones simply enable you to do things that you can't otherwise
do.

No, that's not true at all. They are more compact and with the touch HID more
frustrating but certainly far from better.

~~~
sillysaurus3
People take exponentially more photos and videos now that they have
smartphones. That's the definition of "enable people to do something they
can't otherwise do."

~~~
diltonm
The guy said, "smartphones simply enable you to do things that you can't
otherwise do". People were taking pictures with their cameras long before
smartphones and uploading them. I was using Microsoft StreetMaps (I think that
was the name) and a $100 GPS serial device to map trips around the SFBA.
People have used a compass to navigate for thousands of years. So yes,
smartphones don't do things you can't do otherwise; they are just compact and
more fun, if you can them in your pocket. If you can't then you might want to
look at a small laptop or notebook, more bang for the buck.

~~~
sillysaurus3
I don't know why this is controversial. You aren't going to carry a camera
around with you everywhere you go, nor a GPS, nor a laptop. But you'll carry
your smartphone. So you can do more things because you have your smartphone
with you.

Anyway, my main point was that culture was the reason for the dark ages, not
ability to do things. And smartphones don't override culture.

~~~
pixl97
>And smartphones don't override culture.

What does override culture?

Talking to the people around you? Newspapers? Books? Telephones? Peoples
options? News?

 _Culture: the arts and other manifestations of human intellectual achievement
regarded collectively._

If you don't think that an instantaneous audio/graphical communications device
cannot be used as a means to effect culture you are highly confused about what
culture is.

~~~
sillysaurus3
Another day, another snarky HN comment...

As I said, smartphones morph culture in interesting ways. That's a direct
product of having access to all of the things you mention. But people are
still fundamentally people. If the world believes that war is necessary,
smartphones aren't going to change that. And that belief was one of the main
reasons for the dark ages.

------
InclinedPlane
The evolution of mobile technology has ironically been held back by its
success. Today it's too easy to make money in mobile devices, just make things
thinner, shinier, faster, and prettier and you're most of the way there. And
then you can rake in massive profit margins in a market where people replace
their devices on a timeframe measured in months. It's practically raining cash
in the land of successful mobile manfuacturers.

But once we get past this early stage of mobile success people will be looking
to gain more productivity out of their devices. Today have the power and OS
chops to handle beefy tasks, but for the most part the UX and peripheral
experience isn't there. But that'll change. There will be more attachable
keyboards, more desktop docking stations, etc. And then the use of tablets and
smartphones in business will drive the manufacturers to service that market
more and more to meet those needs.

Meanwhile, the low end of mobile will get cheaper as the developing world
starts to gain access to computing and folks find out how valuable that market
is and figure out how to serve it.

This is the 2nd wave of the personal computing revolution and it's only just
barely started, what we'll see in the next 10 years will blow the doors off
the last decade.

------
ThomPete
This remind me of the race towards smaller phones we experienced in the pre-
smartphone era I don't see Sonys ultra small mobiles being in vogue anymore.
We seem to forget a simple fact.

The smartphone was not a better phone but a smaller computer. The idea that
mobile is somehow replacing most of the other platforms and their usage is
simply misplaced.

Mobile is part of a diverting technology trend not converging.

------
sinofsky
At every moment of disruption in technology people saying that the new
technology doesn't replace the incumbent. By definition disruptive
technologies are less functional and inadequate "replacements".

First, folks tend to talk about all the things that the new technology can't
do that the old one does do. In the Steve Jobs interview at All Things D
referenced in the comments, he goes on to talk about how software needs to get
written--"it is just software" he says. In the near term history we have seen
this same dynamic in the advent of the GUI relative to CUI or in the way
browser/HTML subsumed the GUI client-server apps. People are writing more code
all the time that is "mobile only" even if some of it reinvents or reimagines
the desktop/laptop world. I was struck by Adobe's recent developer conference
where they showed many mobile apps. As an always aspiring photog we can see
how the field is transitioning.

Second, people tend to underestimate the way that new tools, as ineffective as
they are, drive changes in the very definition of work. Said another way,
people forget that tools can also define the work and jobs people have. It
isn't like work was always "mail around a 10MB presentation before the
meeting". In fact a long time ago meeting agendas were typed out in courier by
a typist -- that job was defined by the Selectric. The tools that created
presentations, attachments, and follow up email defined a style of working.
While we're reading all this, the exponential rise of mobile is changing what
it means to work--to go to a meeting, to collaborate, to decide, to create,
etc.

What is so fascinating about this transition is that we might be seeing a
divide where creators of tools will use different tools, at least for some
time, than the masses that use tools. Let's not project the needs of
developers on to the whole space. We might reach a point where different tools
are needed. Two years ago I might have said this applies to a lot of fields,
but the rapid rise of mobile and tablet based software for many things is
making that argument weak. Cash registers, MRI machines, video annotation, and
more are all scenarios I have seen recently where one might have said "needs a
real OS" or "this need sa full PC". As with the the idea of underestimating
software, our own desire to find an anchor pushes us to view things through a
lens where our own work doesn't change.

All of this is happening. In parts of the world they are skipping over PCs
(Africa and China). Everyone is seeing their time in front of a screen go up
enormous amounts and most of that is additive, but for many there is a
substitute effect. This doesn't happen overnight or for everyone. TO deny it
though is to deny the very changes that led to supporting the idea that the
mouse, overlapping windows, and color once displaced other technologies where
people said those were not substitutes for the speed, efficiency, or
capabilities of what was in use.

~~~
purpletoned
If you're really Steven Sinofski, pretty damn amazing to see you on hn.
Watching you introduce Windows 8 at build two years back, I couldn't have ever
imagined seeing you post on hn or any other discussion forum for that matter.

~~~
acqq
Discovering that Steven Sinofsky is now a board partner at a big VC firm, it's
not so surprising to see him here. Welcome.

~~~
sinofsky
It is me. I've always participated in forums like HN while at Microsoft (and
now). I think you can even find me on USENET archives :-)

------
jacquesm
Very hard to compare two worlds (mobile and 'immobile' computers) without
taking into account that the one is brand new and people seem to want one (and
there is a very large push to own the latest and greatest) and the other is
simply mature technology that works until the hardware dies. It's obvious
you're going to sell more of things that sit in peoples pockets that
_replaced_ their previous phone, something they were doing with some
regularity before smartphones appeared.

Smartphones and tablets are interesting, they may enable new applications,
they take over some of the functionality of desktops and laptops but it's more
of a continuum than a very strong difference, you go from small and on your
person to phablets (what a word), tablets, laptops, touch screen all-in-one
PCs, regular PCs all the way to servers.

So mobile simply completed the spectrum and as long as there is a fashion
element to it they'll be sold in very large numbers (the fact that the
batteries die is another push to upgrade them, ditto laptops).

In the longer term it will slow down a bit but mobile phones will always be
sold in larger numbers than desktop computers because of these reasons.

There is one way in which 'mobile is eating the world', which is in terms of
resources consumption, and that is going to be a real problem without better
and more structured ways of thinking about disposing phones during the design
phase as well as some kind of rebate program.

------
forgotAgain
Its worth it to keep in mind that A&H are in the business of selling investors
on their investment ideas. This is a marketing piece not a technology piece.

------
api
Don't disagree with the market numbers, but there's a problem with mobile. It
is best illustrated by the fact that I csnnot develop a mobile app on a mobile
device.

There won't be any "convergence" until mobile OSes are uncrippled.

I personally see a three device ecosystem. Mobile will cut into PC on the low
end, but it's really growing into a space not served by PC or server.
Computing in general is expanding.

~~~
Ologn
> I cannot develop a mobile app on a mobile device.

You can develop an Android app on an Android device.

[https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.aide.ui](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.aide.ui)

~~~
jgalt212
It's probably better stated:

cannot _effectively_ develop a mobile app on a mobile device.

Productivity largely correlates with screensize.

[https://www.google.com/#q=productivity+screen+size](https://www.google.com/#q=productivity+screen+size)

------
LVB
I don't get the "Tech Brands Are Huge" slide, specifically the comparison to
the same companies in 2004. Wouldnt you compare to the top four tech companies
at the time (MSFT, AOL, whatever) to demonstrate that the share of global
brand value in tech is much higher now?

------
mark_l_watson
I have been hoping for a world where developers and content creators produced
reactive HTML 5 web apps that worked beautifully on all devices from phones to
laptops to large screen desktops and TVs.

An analogy: writing and production tools have been getting better with output
to PDF, Kindle, iBook, and print books. The overhead for creativity decreases
so more effort goes to producing great content. This is what I would like for
interactive web applications.

There is a lot of niche content and special interests and there will continue
to be a wide range of devices. Lots very inexpensive phones in developing
countries and a wide range of devices upscale. Content providers and
application developers should have access to all users, world wide, with low
development overhead.

~~~
CmonDev
I am hoping for a world where developers have a choice of a technology,
without being limited to legacy semi-modernized languages like HTML and JS.

~~~
mark_l_watson
True! Of course technology choices are good.

------
ck2
Mobile is how I know I am old.

After 5 minutes on a iphone or android phone I am like f* this give me a damn
desktop.

~~~
mrweasel
I think my iPad ran out of battery three months ago, I haven't looked at it
since. If you don't use it for entertainment, it's pretty much useless.
Touchscreens and the fullscreen apps just doesn't work for me.

------
marknutter
Mobile is not the future. We're in that future right now, and it's largely
stabilized. I fully believe VR is the future. Anyone who's tried the Oculus
and who has even an ounce of entrepreneurial imagination would agree. Just
like when the iPhone came out in '07, the right convergence of technology has
made it possible for truly convincing VR to make it into the mainstream. It
will revolutionize gaming, commerce, socialization, productivity, and more.
Those who understand this are already skating towards that puck. Everyone else
is fighting over the few remaining scraps that the mobile table has to offer.

~~~
megablast
> Anyone who's tried the Oculus and who has even an ounce of entrepreneurial
> imagination would agree.

People have been saying exactly the same thing since the first VR came about.
For some reason, VR really excited some people. Even though there is no way it
is replacing a computer or a smartphone, since they have different uses.

Unless you are suggesting VR will improve writing emails or entering data into
a spreadsheet?

~~~
marknutter
>Even though there is no way it is replacing a computer or a smartphone, since
they have different uses.

Of course VR won't replace a smartphone or a computer. It's a completely
different tool solving a completely different problem.

>Unless you are suggesting VR will improve writing emails or entering data
into a spreadsheet?

Reminds me of the comments people first made about the iPhone when it came
out; like "how are you supposed to type without a physical keyboard?" It's an
inability to think creatively. VR isn't going to improve writing emails or
entering data into a spreadsheet, those activities are already well served by
laptops. Use your imagination. VR will help you buy your next car because you
can actually sit and test drive hundreds before you try the real thing. VR
will let you visit other countries before you plan an expensive vacation. VR
will let you connect with your friends across the world in ways you simply
cannot do today. VR will let you walk around in your custom built home before
a single nail is driven.

> People have been saying exactly the same thing since the first VR came
> about.

So the value is obvious, then. It's just that the technology hasn't been there
to make it viable. People were talking up handheld devices for _years_ as
well, but it wasn't until it became technologically feasible to create a user
friendly experience that it finally exploded in popularity.

~~~
dingaling
>Reminds me of the comments people first made about the iPhone when it came
out; like "how are you supposed to type without a physical keyboard?"

I don't know if that was a common conception at the time; after all touch-
screen kiosks have been common since the 1990s. And Palm had discarded
physical keyboards in their PDAs as far back as 1996.

More it was a case of 'typing will be much less efficient without a keyboard',
which was true and has only been addressed by lateral thinking such as
Swype[0], an analogue of which Apple have finally implemented after five
generations.

[0] _or, as I 've just been reminded, Graffiti on the Palm PDAs_

------
hownottowrite
Actually, we are eating the world.

[http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=population%20of%20the%2...](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=population%20of%20the%20earth)

------
wslh
The problem is the definition of mobile. Mobile seems to be more like a form
factor than an operating system. If at the end I can convert a tablet into a
full featured PC (i.e Microsoft Surface running Visual Studio) or I can plug a
future mobile phone to a keyboard and monitor and run Microsoft Office there
then there is no division between mobile, desktop PC, and web.

------
joshrael
I'm not sure I understand the "three phases of technology deployment" slide.
Specifically, I can't think of a good example of a company that writes a check
to buy technology (or the analogy to a plant on the following slide). Are
these three types of companies distinct?

------
lnanek2
Did a double take at the "Glass is eating the world" slide before finally
realizing they were talking about LCDs and not Google's failed wearable.

------
ddbb01
Technology gets cheaper and easier to use - a consistent story over time.
Interestin stats.

------
chevas
I doubt this presentation was created on a mobile device.

------
fanssex
probably because PCs had already eaten the world

------
lazylizard
but batteries?

------
sstas
Hmm, Good Information ...

------
maxsavin
I saw Eric Schmidt's quote "By the summer of 2012, the majority of the
televisions you see in stores will have Google TV embedded" and stopped there.

~~~
burkaman
I really hate comments like this. What is the point of leaving this "review"?
Are you proud of not spending the 2 minutes to finish the slideshow? You
mention a quote you didn't like, but then immediately invalidate the criticism
by saying you didn't keep reading to see if there was anything further to back
it up or refute it.

I'm not disagreeing with your complaint, I just really hate the way you framed
it.

~~~
maxsavin
It makes me question the entire context of the presentation.

