

Ten Businesses Facing Extinction Within ten Years -- is There a Contrarian Play to be Made Here? - DanielBMarkham
http://smallbusiness.yahoo.com/r-article-a-112583-m-1-sc-12-10_businesses_facing_extinction_in_10_years-i

======
Goladus
_Record stores:_

Answer: Do for record stores what Barnes and Noble and Borders have done for
bookstores. Borders is a place to go sit, enjoy a sandwich (or a cup of your
favorite caffienated beverage), and browse books for fun. Make a 'record
store' a place that people can go to enjoy music. Have live music playing
during the day, like modern chamber music. Make the experience fun and
interactive. Add places to sit and relax. Have jukeboxes with big libraries of
quality music, that people can download to their ipods.

 _Newspapers:_

Technology will have to advance a lot in 10 years to replace newspapers, and
maybe it will. But the internet needs to be able to deliver something that
people can carry with them on the subway or in the airport with minimal fuss.
Personally, I'd like to see newspapers be smaller and more portable. I want
something like a magazine that I can hold in my hand and isn't gigantic
cumbersome mess like newsprint.

 _Used bookstores:_

Answer: Similar to the record store issue. Used bookstores have a problem in
that used books tend to be dusty and smelly. Extra steps need to be taken to
be sure that the experience of visiting a used bookstore is a pleasant one in
spite of this.

_Coin-operated arcades:_

Answer: Once again, the answer is a viable public space and pleasant customer
experience. That's what movie theaters and mini-golf courses have in common.
Do people really go play mini golf because the game is really that fun? Mini
golf is fun, bur more importantly it is a social event. That's what Arcades
were, when they were popular. I think theaters are declining partly because
catering to teens appears to be cheaper. So for most people, going to a
theater is not all that fun.

~~~
geebee
I agree with you about the record stores. Actually, Starbucks (believe it or
not) appears to be gearing up for this. They sell CD's now, but I read an
article (sorry, no link) a while back about how they were looking into
creating download stations where you can burn a CD while you have your coffee.

Can't say I like the starbucks vibe all that much, but it isn't a bad idea.

Thing is, do you think this would work for music as well as it does for books?
For now, music can be digitized and delivered over the web more readily than
books (I've bought a few ebooks, but I don't like them much). I do miss album
art, but I'm not sure it's enough to overcome the convenience of iTunes. I
suspect people would be more likely to stay in their dorm room/bedroom with
friends listening and downloading.

Live music might bring them out, though - that's a possibility. Record stores
have started to do this, too.

------
geebee
I'd say the contrarian play is in figuring out what need these places used to
fill, and understanding where the business is going to go.

For instance, record stores are almost certainly a shrinking business. Between
walmart picking up the high volume on top hits CD's and iTunes covering that
and everything else, it seems like it would be hard to get into the business
of selling hard copies of music...

But people still really like to get together to appreciate music. I'm old
enough to have browsed for hours at Tower Records - using a CD purchase as an
excuse to enjoy being in a record store, around all the other music geeks. The
90s were not exactly a match for the glory days of the 70s at record stores,
from what I've heard, but it was still pretty great, and I'm sad they're going
away.

Maybe this will create an opportunity somewhere new. Not in a record store,
but in something that will give people what they used to get from the record
store. iTunes and WalMart may very well take the business of selling copies of
music, but I doubt they can replace that atmosphere... so either it will go
away, or it will live someplace new. I'd bet on the second.

Of course, the new venu may just be some speakers in a dorm room, so this
isn't necessarily a business opportunity... maybe just a cultural shift.

~~~
zach
> I'm old enough to have browsed for hours at Tower Records - using a CD
> purchase as an excuse to enjoy being in a record store, around all the other
> music geeks. The 90s were not exactly a match for the glory days of the 70s
> at record stores, from what I've heard, but it was still pretty great, and
> I'm sad they're going away.

I know where you're coming from. Tower Records was just always a fun stop on
an evening or afternoon out doing nothing in particular. They had movies, they
had CDs, they had funky magazines. I'm just amazed how quickly they folded.
They were huge and seemed quite profitable. I never suspected in the 90's that
they would be gone in a decade. Then again, that's nothing compared to the
shock the record industry experienced...

------
dfranke
> Camera film manufacturing

Come on, do they really think that Kodak is just going to roll over and die?
They'll just adapt and move to a closely-related business, like photo paper.

------
DanielBMarkham
I know YC likes to see ideas with big potential markets, but I can't help
wondering if there is a sort of herd mentality that goes along with startup
ideas. Obviously, social networking is par for the course.

Is there a play to be made on ideas that are not in favor? Perhaps ideas that
are on the way out? For instance, based on this article, would there be a
business model in, say, creating custom vinyl records based on user's MP3
files and cover art?

Since these are declining businesses the huge numbers probably aren't there,
but they might make a nice place fora bootstrapper to go -- perhaps a little
safer than competing with the majority of investment money.

~~~
mechanical_fish
Picking through the pieces of dying business models seems like a poor way to
avoid "the herd". That's like trying to avoid competing with the lions by
hiding out among the sick and wounded antelope. ("Gosh, these antelope don't
look very dangerous, with their open wounds and their expressions of terror! I
am certainly safe from them!")

If you think you hate being part of a herd, imagine what it feels like to be
running away from one.

If you prefer to avoid the well-traveled path, you might prefer to look for a
healthy business that has not yet been mortally wounded, and try to compete
with _that_. Remember the words of Eric Sink
(<http://software.ericsink.com/Choose_Your_Competition.html>):

"The big problem with avoiding competition is that you are also avoiding
customers. The existence of a competitor indicates the existence of paying
customers. If you can't find anyone who is making money with your idea, you
really need to wonder if there is any money to be made there at all."

~~~
DanielBMarkham
I think maybe you missed the point.

If most people stop using and buying records, that's a "dying business model",
right? So riddle me this, Batman: are there people who are going to keep using
records? If so, it's certainly not for the ability to hear the music -- that
problem has been solved better. Is it a lifestyle choice? Is it because they
are anti-technology?

So while one definition of the record business shuts down, is there another
definition that will take its place? Hey -- the answer might very well be
"no". But if it is yes, it's certainly not the same business model that died.
It's a whole new market, with new drivers, new players, and new distribution
channels. It's also a market where there is going to be lots of talent lying
around that isn't being used any more (like how to design good covers, various
custom record production techniques, etc)

Continuing on in my example, if you could find 10 million folks all over the
world interested in something to do with records -- custom records, records as
bird houses, records as the new frisbees, whatever -- and you can market
something to them that they want, that's called a business.

Running away from the competition has nothing to do with it. I'm asking a
simple leverage question: given two markets of equal size and a limited
budget, do you compete with a hundred other small businesses, some of which
with a lot of funding? Or do you compete with 4 or 5 business, all of which
are figuring it out just like you are?

I'm not taking a position. In fact, my question was "is there a contrarian
play to be made?"

