
Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly - jseliger
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-08-31/electric-vehicles-in-california-their-day-will-come-suddenly
======
zizee
I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to
digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a
poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common
to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many
drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't
take long and digial cameras improved enough for it to be good enough for
happy-snaps. The serious photographers then moved the goalposts to "proper
photographers" won't use them because of reason X. From that point the
transition was very rapid.

I see the same arguments being made about electric cars. "The batteries are no
good in really cold climates", "They'll not a good replacement as I cannot
drive 1000 km in one stetch", "I live in an apartment, I can't charge one, on
the street".

There are so many obvious benefits of electric cars, as soon as they are close
to cost competitive, I bet the transition for new car sales will happen much
quicker than many people realize and the infrastructure will quickly follow
once the market has spoken.

~~~
Eric_WVGG
> "I live in an apartment, I can't charge one, on the street"

I agree with pretty much everything you said, but I still can't fathom how
electric cars are going to make more than a dent in NYC where most cars are
stored streetside.

~~~
astura
There's no physical reason why there can't be municipal on street charging,
even if it's "pay to charge." Think like parking meters.

There just needs to be a demand for the initial infrastructure to be built.

~~~
gambiting
So my local council doesn't even have the money to stay on top of fixing
potholes and uneven streets , but will somehow find the money and will to put
electric charging points everywhere? Yeah, I don't see that happening.

~~~
BurningFrog
They have money. They just don't care about potholes and uneven streets.

~~~
parkersweb
Sadly not true - father was a civil engineer in council highways dept before
he retired. For years he had been saying that funding was so small they were
having to patch roads where they should have been renewing the road bed. Now
they can't even afford to do all roads. It might be a problem of funding
allocation of course - but it wasn't a lack of desire.

~~~
BurningFrog
Yeah, I'm saying maintaining infrastructure is not a political priority,
because it doesn't win elections.

Not that the people working in infrastructure maintenance waste the money.

------
stellar678
They neglected a huge part of the coming electric vehicle picture:
lightweight, slow-speed electric vehicles.

Almost 60% of US car trips are 5 miles or shorter. (2017 ref:
[https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/ae/work/Job63697.html](https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/ae/work/Job63697.html),
2009 ref:
[https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/fatcat/2009/vt_TRPMILES.html](https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/fatcat/2009/vt_TRPMILES.html))

Scooters, e-bikes, and electric cargo bikes (not to mention the human-powered
versions!) will soak up an enormous portion of the current automobile demand,
and leave us with massively positive outcomes in terms of congestion,
pollution, road safety and community cohesion.

~~~
azeotropic
America is not the Bay Area. Those short trips are across town to pick up the
kids at school or take them to sports or go grocery shopping or other errands.
In the snow. Uphill. Both ways.

Nobody is going to use a scooter or an e-bike for that. If someone made an
electric minivan, sure, that might soak up most of those trips, but for some
reason nobody makes one.

~~~
HarryHirsch
It would be progress if the kids could get their own electric scooter to go to
school or soccer training. It would increase their social skills, it can't be
good to be dependent on the parents for _everything_ when cooped up in an
exurban paradise.

~~~
usaar333
Almost any kid that can use an electric scooter can already bicycle. A scooter
is barely even faster than a bike on flat ground.

A kid under the age of 8 (half the population of children) isn't going to be
taking solo trips.

~~~
soperj
The do in the Netherlands. Almost all school age kids were going to school
together when I was there.

~~~
usaar333
ah, what is the earliest age a kid will travel without adult supervision in
the Netherlands?

~~~
widforss
I don't know about Netherlands, but I know that I started to do that around
age 7 in Sweden. I think that is fairly typical.

------
kasey_junk
My big issue is that in the places that electric cars make the most sense
(cities) it’s hardest to own them. What am I going to do, run a really long
extension cord from my condo to the random parking spot I found around the
block?

~~~
newfocogi
This situation is when employers providing chargers in company parking will
become a notable work benefit.

~~~
kasey_junk
I commute via public transit, my employer doesn’t offer parking.

~~~
rorykoehler
I work from home. My employer doesn't have an office in the country i live in.

------
hutzlibu
As soon as there is a critical mass of electric cars, that the first citys can
dare to declare the (inner) city to be gasoline free - then I think the
turning point is reached.

Can't wait for it. I just returned from the wilderness to the city ... what a
huge improvement of city life it would be if the noise and smell of cars would
be gone ...

------
p1mrx
I'm currently attempting to install an EV charger in my condo carport. The
first step was to exchange parking spaces with another owner, in order to get
physically close enough to run conduit from my panel.

However, I found the property laws surrounding the modification of assigned
parking spaces to be pretty murky. It'd be nice if there were a state/nation-
wide effort to clarify this sort of transaction, because lots of maps and HOA
documents were written decades ago, with zero thought given to electrical
access.

There will always be some homes where EV charging is infeasible, but map
reordering could fix a lot of the marginal cases.

~~~
kart23
The question is not who will let you, but who will stop you.

~~~
p1mrx
The answer to that is, a current or future owner of the property that
originally held the space.

------
singularity2001
This day has already come, at least in China:

There are already 100 million (!) electro scooters in use in China:
[https://www.accessmagazine.org/fall-2010/electric-two-
wheele...](https://www.accessmagazine.org/fall-2010/electric-two-wheelers-
china-promise-progress-potential/) . This mega trend went pretty unnoticed in
the West.

"Having lived in China for the last year it’s pretty much 99.8% ebikes. Petrol
motorbikes don’t make an appearance except in very poor areas."

------
CalChris
I'm on my third EV (Leaf, S, M3). Never going back. Since the Model 3 is so
well built (after some startup hickups), I can recommend it on that alone.
Tesla is very vertically integrated now (they make their own seats) and so the
Model 3 is profitable for Tesla although the capital investment was quite
high.

Also, it's fun to drive next to a Viper and throw shade.

~~~
madengr
Ditto. I’m driving a Leaf and will never buy an ICE car again.

In the article, I’m surprised the EVs are about the same sales as hybrids. I
figured there would still be more hybrid sales.

~~~
radiorental
Was talking to staff at the rental counter in Phoenix. They said that they
stopped buying hybrids when gas dropped back down and the fact that they were
costly to maintain... (More moving parts).

Fleet sales were a big driver when gas prices were higher

Plus, hybrids are a gutless jack of all trades and master of none

~~~
justinph
Depends a lot on the hybrid. Prius is the most reliable car you can buy. When
I sold mine at 130k miles, it still had the original brake pads. You are right
about the jack of all trades, and IMHO that's a good thing.

~~~
ansible
The hybrid transaxle on the Prius is a technological marvel.

While the transaxle and battery pack add their own significant costs,
complexity, and failure modes, they also eliminate a lot of the components on
a conventional gas engine vehicle.

In my area, it is common to see a lot of hybrids used as taxis. Some of the
older ones I see likely have 500k miles.

------
chrisbrandow
Seems just as likely that the correct interpretation is that exponential
growth is difficult to appreciate when starting from a small base. The
“inflection point” cited in the article could easily be a continuation of the
exact growth rate present for the previous 10 years.

~~~
pankajdoharey
The prices have to come down too. the Electric cars are 5-6 times more
expensive than the normal cars. By cheap normal cars i meant Hyundai Accent
which costs $14,995, Or Toyota Yaris $16000 or Chevrolet Sonic $20K or a ford
fiesta $14K.

~~~
xyzzyz
What? A normal car costs something like $30k. Electric cars don't cost
$150-180k.

~~~
wwweston
If you're a lifelong buyer of used cars, the perception matches pretty
closely. I've never bought a car for more than $4000 (and FWIW the used buys
I've made have had a minimum reliable life of 5 years, and max repair costs
before abandonment of another $4k).

I don't know what the used EV market is like right now. I don't remember
seeing any. Then again, EVs are relatively new and rarer than ICEVs so I
wouldn't expect them to have a big profile in used vehicle listings.

(If I were guessing, I'd speculate the economy choice for EVs right now might
be some kind of conversion of a failed/old ICEV, but that's uninformed
speculation...)

~~~
CamelCaseName
Any advice on models or tactics for buying a used car? I have been struggling
to find something for nearly 2 months now. All I really need is inexpensive.

~~~
wwweston
FWIW ~2 months has sometimes been time it's taken me to find the used car
deals I was looking for. Once I've been immensely lucky and stumbled on an
incredible deal quickly. More often it's in between.

I'm not an expert, but my tips: figure out your budget (mine is usually
$2-4k). Then cast a broad net for cars that have less than 120k miles. Many
cars made in the last 20 years have upwards of 150-200k in them. So starting
here is going to give you potential for ~50k at the cost of a down payment. It
can help if you have a few models in mind that you know tend to have
particularly long lives or tend to be undervalued (my favorite for a while was
the Geo Prizm, which is a rebadged and therefore discounted Corolla, I've also
had two Oldsmobile Cutlass Cieras that went into the 200k range... but these
were both discontinued 15-20 years ago and good ones are getting rare). Do
your own filtering on the health of the car. I'm not even an _amateur_ auto
mechanic but I have a few heuristics: is the temperature stable over a range
of driving conditions from idling to hill loads or freeway? What kind of oil
leaks do I see? Also I like visible brake & gas pedal wear as a proxy for
general vehicle wear. If a car doesn't have any obvious problems on these
points, fits my cost/miles profile, and I like it, then I take it to a
professional mechanic for a pre-purchase inspection and follow their advice.
If the mechanic notes some needed non-powertrain repairs that fit inside the
budget, I'll usually buy, perhaps after some negotiation.

There's a downside to this approach: it can be time-intensive. If you're well-
compensated with your job (or you're doing a startup, or you're a new parent,
or you have some other time-intensive thing going on in your life), your time
may more valuable than the economizing this approach can yield. It goes faster
if you let out the parameters a bit (bump up the budget and take down the
mileage). In most sufficiently large cities there's probably a <$10k Toyota
with less than 70k miles on it out there that you can find within a week that
will give you trouble-free driving for years.

If you want more tips, Google Greg Macke, who seems to have some sensible
advice about evaluating cars and has some recommended/lemon lists.

------
village-idiot
All major changes are always far off in the future until they suddenly aren't.
It's kind of amazing how often we keep being surprised by this.

~~~
grecy
Yep. The iPhone was only released in 2007, in reality the first mass-market
touch "smartphone".

Now only 11 years later a friend was almost denied entry to the US because the
border officials refused to believe she didn't have a smartphone she could use
to show them her bank account. She asked to use wifi and use her laptop, but
no, they demanded she use her (non-existent) smartphone.

In only 11 years the product has gone from not existing to being essentially
mandatory.

~~~
village-idiot
Try telling someone you didn't bring your phone. Most people actually tend to
get a bit anxious at the idea.

~~~
grecy
Oh, I don't have one. People confront me often - "what will you do in an
emergency?!"

~~~
village-idiot
I always laugh at this idea. I’ve never actually met someone who used their
phone in an emergency, only in an “emergency”.

------
ztjio
I won't buy another car that isn't an electric car. Even if I have to wait
years. I am so sick of the idiocy that is current gas cars. The complexity is
insane. You guys whine so much about repairability in tech gadgets and shit,
but cars? ho. lee. shit. Modern cars are insane. Well, modern gas cars.

I am never spending another $2000 on "labor" to change a gasket. Power
sources, being electric are cool, and I definitely appreciate the long term
benefits to the environment and all that shit. But honestly.

The real reason for electric cars is that they are simple. The drive train is
a few pieces requiring minimal management and maintenance. It's time for cars
to stop being a huge pain in the ass.

Tesla may be loved, hated, what3ever. but they proved cars don't have to be
huge garbage piles destroying the world and making our lives worse with stupid
maintenance costs that don't need to exist. Whether they live or die is up to
markets, sadly,. but it's up to us to make the world of personal conveyance a
thousand times better than it is now by choosing electric.

Never buy a gas car. Ever. Again.

~~~
neuronic
I am completely with you, but would like to mention that batteries are also
produced somewhere and the process and required resources are anything but
environmentally friendly.

This is not to say that EVs are a gigantic improvement. Returning to them will
improve many things.

------
woodandsteel
I have read there will be two stages here. First the cars will get cheap
enough, and there will be enough charger stations, so they start to get bought
in mass.

And when this goes far enough, it will send the ICE into a death spiral due to
things like gas stations closing and fixed production costs per car getting
too high because they are spread over too few sold cars. Also people will be
won't be willing to spend as much for a given ICE model because they see the
future trends and know it will not bring as much when later sold used.

------
KozmoNau7
I think the first major tipping point is going to be electric buses. They run
relatively short, well-known routes, they have lots of space for batteries as
a replacement for the big diesel engine, they can have a charging pantograph
on the roof without seeming ugly (unlike on a passenger car), and they can
trickle charge for 5-10 minutes at either end of their route, keeping them
topped up enough to last a full day of driving.

In addition, they're also quieter, have less vibration and don't produce local
pollution in the form of diesel exhaust, which modern buses have lots of
costly systems installed in order to mitigate.

All public transit should be electrified, to set a good example.

------
syntaxing
I wholeheartedly believe, in order for electric vehicles to survive in the US,
we will need government intervention not just simply in car subsidy. We will
need some sort of infrastructure subsidy to make this happen. Either give
incentive to gas station or even corporate buildings. Companies that provide
more charging stations for employees to charge their cars during work gets
bigger tax cuts. Also, the US will need to get rid of the gas tax and
implement some sort of per mileage tax. Without these, I find it hard for
electric cars to survive without destroying our current infrastructure.

~~~
greglindahl
All of those things are already happening in parts of the US.

~~~
syntaxing
Hmm, I have I only heard about statewide efforts. Even statewide, only a
couple of states are investing in this technology (CA, NY, and TX). Are there
federal incentives that I overlooked?

~~~
greglindahl
Uh, no? Not sure how you thought that my mention of "parts of the US" might
mean federal.

~~~
syntaxing
I didn't. That's why I asked if there was in order to clairfy any points I
might of misunderstood. Unfortunately, the biggest transportation changes are
done through a federal level particularly through the NHSTA. For instance, the
highways system wash deemed foolish by many but we manage to make it a reality
through the cooperation in a federal and state level.

~~~
greglindahl
Ah. That kind of fake "reply" really wrecks conversation -- you left me
wondering if you had misunderstood, when instead you were just grinding your
axe.

~~~
syntaxing
Huh, not sure how and what I am grinding my axe for? I was genuinely curious
if there is a federal incentives provided that I don't know about which is
very possible. For instance, for the 3D printing industry there are specific
grants (free money essentially) to help small companies federally and state
wide. Not sure why you find my intent replusive or with a hidden purpose.

~~~
greglindahl
As I said before, I don't have any information about new federal incentives --
I have owned an EV for 5.5 years and know about state and local incentives for
everything you brought up... which is why I said "parts of the US".

Meanwhile, you made it clear in the other thread that you're mainly interested
in federal incentives, which is what I was referring to as your axe. Nothing
repulsive, just something unlikely to generate good conversation with people
who have nothing to say about federal incentives.

------
Animats
It is already coming suddenly in China. Beijing has a lottery for new car
license plates for ICE cars, and the quota goes down each year. Not for
electrics. More than half of new cars in Beijing are electric. Next,
Guangzhou. Shenzhen is already all electric buses.

~~~
Al-Khwarizmi
> More than half of new cars in Beijing are electric.

Do you have a link for that?

~~~
nielsole
[https://www.theatlas.com/charts/Skd1s2ig7](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/Skd1s2ig7)

Apparently the chart shows only the number of permits handed out, not the
number of cars actually admitted. (After you get the permit, you have a period
during which you actually need to buy a car, if I read it correctly)

------
newnewpdro
Given some definition of "suddenly".

I don't expect everyone to run out and buy brand new cars off the showroom
floor en-masse the instant the economics favor the newly available flavor of
shiny.

Cars are big ticket items often involving financing, they're sticky. This is
why it's pretty damn urgent that we get the competitive EVs on the market
ASAP. Every new ICE vehicle we add will be on the roads for quite some time,
especially with how mature/reliable they are today. My 94 Japanese econobox
has nearly 300,000 miles and still runs great.

The other issue is as increasing numbers of ICE vehicles get replaced by EVs,
the gasoline demand drops, and the prices may correspondingly drop. In the
words of a friend of mine: "All the oil in the world will be burned."

------
agumonkey
In Paris I can already see the number of Renault Zoe rising. I ask family
members, they saw that too.

------
skookumchuck
What'll really kill gas cars is when gas stations start becoming scarce. It'll
be a vicious (virtuous?) cycle as that'll cause more gas stations to shut
down.

------
Merad
I don’t see EVs taking off for average Americans until there’s an exponential
increase in charging infrastructure. I live in a place where it would make
great sense to have an EV (only commute 12 miles each day), but I can’t charge
at home (townhouse) and I’m not aware of any chargers in my immediate area.
There’s also the issue of travel, meaning an EV can’t really be your only car
or else you need to be prepared to rent any time you go on a trip.

~~~
telchar
I think you're underestimating the Tesla supercharger network. It basically
solves both of those problems (if you have a Tesla) and live in the vicinity
of one - if you don't live near one then it still solves the second issue.

The infrastructure is expanding rapidly, so your "unless" is a fairly safe
bet.

~~~
falcolas
What do you do if you don’t have a Tesla? They’re not exactly a mass produced
value car. And that’s what you need for real penetration to the car market.

~~~
bobsil1
$35K Model 3 out early next year, the average selling price of a US car.

~~~
sokoloff
I've been hearing promises of the $35K Model 3 for 2.5 years now. I'm still
taking the "over" on early next year for broad availability of a $35K Model 3.

------
pankajdoharey
That day will only come if they produce a cheaper car, just like Android
ecosystem with Samsung makes cheap phones. TESLA cant do it, because their per
unit car profits are too high. We need a new car manufacturer that keeps its
per car sale margins low and rely of volume.

~~~
deepnotderp
Or GM?

~~~
pankajdoharey
Actually Nissan or GM actually are well equipped to build cars, their
production pipeline is time tested, you must have heard that TESLA was finding
it difficult to assemble a efficient assembly line to meet the demand. It
still is way behind on its schedule for delivery and unable to meet the
demand. If only GM or Nissan actually produce a compelling enough car i am
sure they can beat TESLA on prices, simply because they have yrs on investment
already paid off on their assembly lines. TESLA would take many many yrs to
get paid on the new assembly line they are putting in place that too with the
inflation of 2018.

------
sabujp
If we can get a sedan (e.g. camry) that does 400-500 mpc, charges in ~5mins,
does well in cold weather also, and costs ~15k for a slightly used model, gas
will be dead for cars.

------
saudioger
The only thing holding back EVs are/were batteries/charging times. Aside from
that they're easier to maintain and perform better — on paper they're loads
more practical.

~~~
ad_hominem
That's not the only thing. How about having to drop ~$8K every 6 years to buy
all new batteries after the originals have severely degraded.

I think battery tech has to improve quite a bit before EVs can truly overcome
ICE vehicles in the mainstream.

~~~
srtjstjsj
It's already under $6K for a LEAF battery replacement. ICE drivers have to
drop at least ~8K every 6 years for gasoline and engine maintenance and
repair. And "severely degraded" is -30% capacity, not really severe except in
the older lowest-capacity batteries.

[https://electrek.co/2018/03/26/nissan-leaf-battery-pack-
repl...](https://electrek.co/2018/03/26/nissan-leaf-battery-pack-replacement-
program/)

~~~
ad_hominem
Except along with that -30% capacity drop, there is also increased internal
resistance in the battery that is also going to affect range (lower
miles/kWh). It's not just -30% capacity = -30% range. E.g. this Leaf owner
who, after 5 years, had -37% capacity but -50% effective range:
[https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-life-expectancy-of-a-
Nissa...](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-life-expectancy-of-a-Nissan-LEAF-
battery/answer/Lance-Pickup)

I won't dispute the $8K/6 years for ICE vehicles (although I am curious if
that's legit) but if you look at the savings rate of the average American I
think you'll see ICEs' steady expense rate of gas fillups, oil change, etc.
suit it better than EVs' lower day-to-day but eventual massive hit.

------
CardenB
When did Norway begin to add incentives for electric vehicles?

~~~
JBiserkov
1990

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-
in_electric_vehicles_in_N...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-
in_electric_vehicles_in_Norway#Government_goals_and_incentives)

------
Entangled
Wake me up when I can get an electric two-seater like this [1] or this [2] for
under ten grand. No A/C, no windows, no nothing, just a cool buggy to run
errands and cruise all day in sunny Florida.

[https://i.imgur.com/gQDPqOn.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/gQDPqOn.jpg)

[https://i.imgur.com/tCXxiRm.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/tCXxiRm.jpg)

~~~
_ph_
The Renault Twizy has been on the market for some years now and sets two
persons. Its under 10 grand.

~~~
GW150914
That is legally and in every other sense, a quad bike.
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault_Twizy#/media/File%3A...](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault_Twizy#/media/File%3ARenault_Twizy.jpg)

He showed a picture of two very small cars, and you offered an electric quad
with a body kit. It has a 61mi range, and a top speed (which it struggles to
reach) of 50mph. He also mentioned Florida, where other people will be driving
giant SUV’s that wouldn’t even notice if they ran that thing over. From a
practical, safety, aesthetic, and functional perspective I don’t think that
fits, especially when $10k can buy a lot of used car, including a Nissan Leaf.

------
decafbad
How can they say that biomass is a form of zero-carbon energy?

------
spiritcat
Sell your ICE's now!

~~~
bougiefever
I would have bought an electric car when I needed a new car, but there are not
enough charging stations. I need to occasionally drive 400 mi, and it's just
not feasible.

------
snarfy
I predict any large shift in the EV market will be tempered by the growth of
the electric grid as a whole.

The grid is already strained. It can barely handle new AC units in the summer.
The large 500KV lines that connect cities to plants are near or over capacity
already. Upgrading is a delicate balance of income vs cost. Upgrade or run
them hotter.

They won't upgrade the backbone due to cost, now imagine the cost of trying to
upgrade the substations and last mile connections. We seriously need better
power distribution for EV to take over the market. Not everybody in the
neighborhood can upgrade their meter to 300A+ without upgrading the network
too.

~~~
dagss
In neighborhoods you charge cars slowly during night when consumption for
other electrical equipment is lower. Certainly no need for 300A+.

------
whatever1
Try to sell a 5 year old vehicle of let’s say 35k original price when it needs
an $10k repair to get a new battery and dump the half tone of environmentally
friendly junk.

More importantly, convince the truck drivers with 150k miles per year that
they will have to dispose their truck ever 2-3 years (1000 charges).

Electric vehicles will take over when a battery breakthrough occurs, one that
affects recharge time, weight and longevity.

~~~
Tuxer
The first model Ss that have hit 10 years and 200k miles have shown an average
of 3% battery capacity decrease.

Car batteries aren't phone batteries :)

~~~
FullyFunctional
AND, that used battery is highly valuable still (useful for power walls). That
line of argument is pure unconcealed FUD.

~~~
whatever1
Why then the manufacturers don’t just buy them back and give you the new one
for peanuts ?

~~~
FullyFunctional
They _do_ buy them back, but the new one isn't peanuts [EDIT: I don't exactly
know the current cost of a new battery]. Also: it's not a sudden cliff, but a
gradual degradation and 10 years is very conservative. BTW: I have read that
there is a big demand for used Tesla batteries from a sizable DIY powerwall
crowd.

