
Ron Conway’s Confidential Investment Guide: The Tech Megatrends - jasonlbaptiste
http://techcrunch.com/2010/09/13/ron-conways-confidential-investment-guide-the-tech-megatrends/
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dotBen
Am I the only one that looks at that chart and thinks _"huh?!? half those
spaces are already saturated"_?

Sure, that's his manifesto to fund now (ie companies funded today probably
were founded chosen 6+ months ago, and those ideas would be fresher then).
Plus he gets to pick the cream of the crop.

But would anyone on HN seriously consider starting a startup _today_ based
around check-ins or a Groupon clone? Both spaces seem totally done to me -
there are plenty of startups in those spaces and so you can only compete on
niche (thus smaller market) or if you can totally disrupt with a genius idea
(unlikely). And in both of those areas (and others in Conway's list) you have
first mover advantage and network effect against you.

Seems to me the trick is to consider what will be on his _next_ list and start
working on that now.

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gojomo
_But would anyone on HN seriously consider starting a startup today based
around check-ins or a Groupon clone?_

Maybe the steamrolling Zynga of the Groupon space hasn't yet arrived.

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flipp
its groupon

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JacobAldridge
I'm reminded of the Chinese Box discussion (related to Turing Tests?): put a
man in a box, and give him an English -> Chinese phrase book. Feed him phrases
on strips of paper in English - his job is to look up the phrase, write the
Chinese equivalent on the back, and hand the paper back. Voila - you have a
translating machine. But can we say the machine is able to translate from
English to Chinese?

Knowing Conway's investment guide in no way qualifies you to pick the right
people or ideas to invest in. It's a Chinese Box, and you don't speak Chinese.

(You know, for metaphorical instances of 'You' and 'Chinese'.)

Edit: It's the Chinese Room Argument by John Searle -
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room> . Searle saw it fit to give the
man a whole room to complete his tasks!

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Uhhrrr
Maybe it's because I've been reading HN, but this seems pretty backwards-
looking to me.

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rjurney
Can you name a portfolio that is more forwards-looking than Conway's?

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anthonyb
His real one.

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Uhhrrr
Above is a worthy question and one decent answer to it. I don't think Conway
is disinforming here, but he probably is indeed giving names of more well-
known companies and keeping some newer names closer to his chest.

I'd say Conway is also behind the HN curve because of what he does. An angel
usually comes into the picture months or years after the team has formed and a
few ideas have been hatched, iterated, and pivoted upon. So my answer to the
question is, probably YC and its clones, and a few companies like Google who
work very hard at fostering innovation - the common thread being a focus on
picking good people.

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healthyhippo
Agreed that its generally backwards looking and at times just strange (urban
entrepreneur?? really?), but there were a few points that resonated with me:
1) Conway's point that UI/UX is becoming far more important. Hipmunk seems
almost entirely based on taking a crappy UX and turning it into an awesome
one; there's lots more room for disruption in other industries as well 2)
Point that there's a data issue-- there's tons of social information and
monetization strategies are still work-in-process

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Stwerner
Do you think with all the screen scraping tools we're seeing come out these
days, that there will be a lot more of "taking a crappy UX and turning it into
an awesome one"? Not talking about to the heights that Hipmunk have taken it,
but maybe somewhere between Hipmunk and all the different instant search tools
we've seen.

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gojomo
I fear TC is going to dribble this out, one barely-readable slide JPEG at a
time.

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zalzally
Where does Flipboard fall in this chart?

Social? Flipboard is primarily a consumption experience with limited
commenting and sharing mechanisms. Granted, those features exist, but are not
the key focus.

Mobile? Because it's on an iPad? I wonder if Ron is actually talking about in-
your-pocket iPhone, Android, Blackberry, etc. and not larger laptop
replacement products such as tablets.

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albertsun
Hmmm... 6 out of 7 of those fit Foursquare. I'm not so sure that this is 7
megatrends and not just one or two.

