

Solar crisis set to hit in 2010, 50% of solar manufacturers may not survive - cwan
http://www.digitimes.com/print/a20090903VL200.html

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cwan
I think it buries the lede. They point out that the solar manufacturers who
don't survive are the ones who sell at >$2 a watt (ie more or less obsolete as
far as tech goes) but then there's this:

"Average selling prices could drop below US$1 per watt in 2010 and US$0.50 in
2011. As many as 50% of the more than 200 solar manufacturers, mired in red
ink with current selling prices above US$2.00 per watt, may not survive, The
Information Network stated."

That's pretty exciting. $1 is supposed to be the magic number when it becomes
more cost effective to build solar than coal at an installation level and
there's no cost for the "fuel".

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scythe
I came here to post this. The solar "gold rush" of 2006-08 was precipitated by
companies like HelioVolt claiming they could achieve panel production for
under $1/watt.

Cheaper solar panels won't kill the industry, it will make it economically
viable on the large scale. If this article's predictions are correct, it's
probably time to invest--if you know the right company, that is.

~~~
rjurney
Very happy to hear this, as we have a solar startup building a massive
production facility in Atlanta - <http://suniva.com/>

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Devilboy
Could you comment on your cost per watt expectations please?

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rjurney
Well, considering that their units are supposed to be something like 20%+
efficient... I think it should be pretty good?

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Devilboy
The energy conversion efficiency is independent of the cost per watt. 20% is a
pretty good figure but not at a cost of $3 per watt for example.

~~~
rjurney
Yeah, I don't know what their cost per watt is. Here's to hoping its good.

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jack7890
How anticlimactic. Based on the title I thought the sun was due to slam into
the earth next year.

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papersmith
And I was wondering how the other 50% will manage to survive.

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Eliezer
They'll be protected by solar panels. Duh, what did you think "solar panels"
did?

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jhancock
Its interesting to see consumption so low. Its my understanding there is a
"last mile" problem with providing solar to homes and small business. There
are not enough companies making it easy for the small adopter. Its certainly
not at the home depot DIY level yet. Maybe panel costs is still a factor. I
know of a company going after this space in EU and U.S. I'm sure they're happy
to see price competition on the supply side.

~~~
jacquesm
disclaimer: I've built a solar & wind powered home.

The 'last mile' is literally the problem if you want to stay grid connected
and have solar on the side you have to jump through all kinds of regulatory
hoops depending on your local situation.

The biggest critical component of a solar installation that is grid connected
is the inverter and the disconnect setup, you will be spending a good bit of
money on that.

A typical inverter will set you back about $1/W.

So you have to calculate that in as well, solar panels alone do not make it
work, there is a large amount of money in mounting, inverters, cabling and
installation involved.

This is one of the factors that slow down adoption.

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sharpn
Here's some more colour on this from a US (investor) perspective:

[http://www.distressed-debt-investing.com/2009/09/possible-
eq...](http://www.distressed-debt-investing.com/2009/09/possible-equity-short-
opportunity-solar.html)

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eserorg
I don't see what's so surprising about this.

"Clean Tech" is one giant taxpayer-funded ponzi scheme.

Madoff would be proud.

~~~
potatolicious
From your profile: "Twitter account: @oil_and_gas"

Biased much?

