

Moore's Law Dead by 2022, Expert Says - lacero
http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1319330&

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H3g3m0n
Moore's law only states that the number of transistors doubles for a specific
size of silicon every 1.5 years.

When it does end, we will move onto other forms of computing, memristor based,
graphene, photonic/optical, quantum (only really useful for some classes of
problems), spintronics and such. Might have a bit of a dip off during the
change over but then it will be business as usual.

We could start to see computers with more and more processors in them. The
cost of producing a processor should continue to drop. Energy efficiency,
(reduced heat) and cooling improved systems will keep being developed. So
maybe we will end up with computers that are almost a solid mass of
processors. That scalability isn't fantastic though, but it would work for
maybe 10 years. Things like FPGA coprocessors could also help.

Finally we can look at breaking away from the current paradigms of computer
science into esoteric things like biological/dna computing.

Most desktop systems are as fast as most people will ever need them. Remember
now days all they are doing is opening a webbrowser and going to Facebook. The
UI's keep getting more and more simplified.

Graphics in games is about the most demanding thing that happens on a desktop,
which will likely keep going for some time until we have photo-realistic,
realtime raytracing at retina DPIs on large screens, in 3D (maybe with voxels
for some kind of future volumetric display).

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scoofy
As a student of analytic philosophy, this has always caused much confusion
when talking to students of logic without a philosophical background. Gordon
Earle Moore, of Moore's law, is incredibly frequently confused with George
Edward Moore, of the "here is one hand" proof of an external world.

Part of me will be happy when G.E. Moore (George) get's a little more
attention.

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jpwright
Of course Moore's Law will end eventually, but that doesn't mean that
improvements in processor technology won't come from somewhere other than
transistor density. Most likely, we'll see 2x+ improvements from one or more
of graphene transistors, 3D chips, optical circuits, quantum computing...

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lacero
The five performance bottlenecks: algorithms, programming language or
compiler, operating system, processor, I/O system and devices.

One almost down I'm sure the I/O system will reach a wall soon as well. Only
thing left is to optimize the software.

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rbanffy
While Moore's Law clearly cannot go on forever, everyone in this trade should
remember its end was prophesized many times before, every time backed up by
good science.

Time will tell.

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mullingitover
Ten years ago I was hearing that it was going to be dead before 2010, I think
I'll continue to take these types of claims with a grain of salt.

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PhantomGremlin
Exactly.

I went to a talk by an Intel engineer saying this very thing. Fortunately it's
not dead, and Intel has done more than anyone else to keep it from dying!!!

OTOH back about three decades ago I attended a talk by a Verbatim marketing
guy (they built floppy disks) that predicted that magnetic bubble memories
would soon kill floppies.

Well, he was right that floppies would die. But so did bubble memory.

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lurkinggrue
Again?

