
Bloomberg U.S. Startups Barometer - elsewhen
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/startup-barometer/
======
jedberg
I'm pretty sure the market is turning. I'm seeing more stories on TC about
companies shutting down than starting up.

Rich people are starting to hold their cash in anticipation of a market
dropout so they have reserves to buy up cheap assets.

~~~
awb
There graph shows a market correction back to mid-2018 levels.

I'm not sure what caused the dramatic boost in 2019, but that spike appears to
be more of an anomaly than a trend.

~~~
oddity
Without knowing the causes, I wouldn't be confident concluding that it's
simply a correction to 2018 levels. But yes, it's also not worth the panic
just yet.

------
oddity
What events correspond to the recent peaks in the chart? It looks like the VC
world was spooked around the start of December and nothing has changed its
mind ever since.

Given these are startups, I would expect much of the information to be
private, but it seems highly unlikely this is a complete black box.

Edit: The comments below raise good possibilities. My own (very naïve)
research yielded that there was a sharp dip in the the overnight repurchase
agreements at the start of December and a small rise a month later. I don't
think this is the cause, and I'm probably biased by media narrative more than
anything, but it might lead somewhere assuming there's a connection by way of
the amount of easy money floating around. The EFF rate also dropped around
24th of July and hasn't gone back up [2].

[1]
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPONTSYD](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPONTSYD)
[2]
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF)

~~~
birdyrooster
China Trade War: [https://www.seattlebusinessmag.com/finance/how-trumps-
trade-...](https://www.seattlebusinessmag.com/finance/how-trumps-trade-war-
china-will-affect-us-investment-markets)

Vision Fund Round 1 End: [https://news.crunchbase.com/news/the-vision-fund-
era-is-near...](https://news.crunchbase.com/news/the-vision-fund-era-is-
nearly-over/)

------
klik99
# of deals and # of first financings seem to be in a normal dec-feb drop
period, but I think the overall index is driven by insane amounts of money per
deal that peaked in june last year, making it look like a scary situation if
you look at the index alone. Taking the parts one-by-one this is looking quite
healthy

I wouldn't be surprised if the boom in deal amount was in turn driven by a
small number of crazy large deals, assuming softbank, which given some big
implosions last year has sobered up the amount given per deal. Again, this
points to a healthier, more sustainable outlook since there are obvious
longterm downsides to overinvesting in unicorns that can't possibly deliver.

------
sek
Vision Fund 1 from Softbank is at the end of it's lifecycle, now they still
try to raise for Vision Fund 2. You spend much more in the early phases of a
fund, so it's big enough to make all the difference here.

------
lawrencevillain
Hopefully the drop is from less people taking VC money.

~~~
abrax3141
Why would that drop precipitously? It might vary a bit, but up up up then
bang?

------
paxys
Someone please overlay that with a Bitcoin price chart

~~~
kanwisher
perhaps thats what the over supply of startups was in 2018

~~~
nexuist
There _were_ a ton of crypto startups around that time...haven’t seen any
press from them since, with the exclusion of Coinbase, which seems to be doing
well.

------
roschdal
The end is nigh.

~~~
scarejunba
What are you short?

