
Burying ‘One Child’ Limits, China Pushes Women to Have More Babies - ahmedalsudani
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/11/world/asia/china-one-child-policy-birthrate.html
======
Animats
China's one-child policy was a huge success. They avoided a big population
run-up in the gap the introduction of reasonably good medicine and a high
enough standard of living that birth rates went down. India didn't do that.

Now that China is developed enough that birth rates have gone down as a
result, they've backed off on the one-child policy. It did its job.

The country has a long history of famines. China's last famine was in 1985.
Remember, China has limited arable land and many mouths.

~~~
astebbin
The one-child policy also resulted in the worst gender imbalance in the world,
which "could lead to instability as more men remain unmarried, raising the
risks of anti-social and violent behavior."

[https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/china-says-its-
ge...](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/china-says-its-gender-
imbalance-most-serious-in-the-world/)

~~~
roenxi
A neat gender balance would be better for the people involved than an insanely
skewed gender balance that favours men.

That being said, one could substitute China -> America and, gender -> wealth,
unmarried -> jobless, and I think the accusation would be similar. I've had
Americans seriously tell me that the country is on the brink of civil war,
which seems about as bad as anything that could come from China's gender
imbalance. I'd link that to economic problems, it is the explanation that
makes the most sense to me.

Basically, there is a real concern; but I'm not sure it is an /unacceptable/
outcome of the One Child Policy. It might just be an outcome. The OCP can
easily be cast as a policy of courage and prudence; overpopulation carries a
real threat of starvation and collapse if it overshoots what the local
resources can support.

~~~
astebbin
I don't know what America has to do with anything, but China's income
inequality is also worse than America's, so there's that.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_eq...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality)

~~~
roenxi
Ah, sorry, should have linked my source.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_distribut...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_distribution_of_wealth)

Wealth, not income. Although I do now see the data is 2000 era, so the
situation might be different now. China was a very equal country by wealth
back then, though.

~~~
Animats
For China, the difference between 2000 and 2018 is huge. In everything.

------
Leary
Declining demographics is not only a problem in China, but many countries in
the world. Japan's government policies, for example, have had limited success.

[https://www.centreforpublicimpact.org/case-study/tackling-
de...](https://www.centreforpublicimpact.org/case-study/tackling-declining-
birth-rate-japan/)

China's backtrack is also reminiscent of Singapore's campaigns, which also had
problems raising its fertility rate after its "Stop-at-Two" campaign in the
60s.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_planning_in_Singapo...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_planning_in_Singapore)

A side effect of encouraging more births in a patriarchal society such as
China will be fewer selective female abortions.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Also, South Korea just went through the same backtracking.

------
mc32
>To put it bluntly, the birth of a baby is not only a matter of the family
itself, but also a state affair,” the official newspaper People’s Daily said

Lest anyone think otherwise, thd regime remains deeply authoritarian and has
echoes of early 20th cent. Progressive thinking from Europe and elsewhere.

~~~
rayiner
The idea that baby production is a community concern (it is literally
perpetuation of the community) is nearly universal. Modern western society is
the outlier in treating it as a personal affair. (And even in the U.S., people
who "choose" not to have kids are viewed skeptically.)

~~~
mc32
Yeah but progressivism and accompanying eugenics of early 20th cent were seen
favorably by both intrawar Germany and the SU and importantly to be controlled
by the central gov.

~~~
pvg
You went from a comment by an official about the state's interest in babies to
progressivism, eugenics, soviets and Nazis. It's word salad trollery and you
should, as they the thing says, 'eschew' it.

~~~
mc32
They all think they know best and want to tell people what to do.

------
NTDF9
I genuinely don't understand the constant push for population growth. Why does
population need to keep growing? GDP? Paying taxes for some social benefits
for the old?

How is this sustainable? When does the ever increasing growth end?

~~~
waterphone
Some see it as a cultural arms race. A "the other cultures aren't stopping
having children, so we need to out-populate them!" sort of deal.

What the fuck is with the idiotic voting going on here lately? Every single
comment I make, many simply pointing out facts or objectively mentioning
something uncontroversial, is getting downvoted lately. What I said in this
comment is absolutely the mindset of a lot of people. I am not one of those
people.

~~~
monocasa
For an example of this see the quiverfull movement in the US. Those "N Kids
and Counting" shows were about members of the quiverfull movement.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quiverfull](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quiverfull)

~~~
reaperducer
The linked article shows the number of "quiverfull" people is less than a
rounding error: 0.0025%.

So, not so much a "movement" as a reality TV show.

~~~
monocasa
They're the explicit part of a larger idea.

I grew up Baptist, and remember the preacher explicitly making the same
argument. There just were not a lot of people who defined their identity
around it; they still internalized the idea though.

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hn_throwaway_99
Once mass urbanization takes hold, it is especially difficult to counteract
declining birth rates. This is especially true in highly patriarchal societies
like China, Japan, and Italy, where motherhood and career is much more of an
"either/or" proposition and where men are much less likely to help out with
housework.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Classing China in with Japan and Italy on this is weird and probably
incorrect. Chinese women generally work after having kids, and take advantages
of lots of child care resources missing from the other two countries (grand
parents, lots of daycare/kindergartens). Chinese (especially Shanghainese) men
are more likely to be henpecked, and they will do house work.

------
jernfrost
I wonder if China will be forced to encourage immigration. Illegal immigration
is apparently already growing rapidly.

Companies can’t find workers anymore so they start smuggling in people to do
the job

At some point this illegal stream will become so large that one has to
consider legalization.

~~~
analyst74
China actually is in the process of establishing immigration agency and
relevant laws/policies to encourage immigration.

[https://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-
politics/article/21...](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-
politics/article/2137058/new-immigration-bureau-set-handle-growing-number)

~~~
seanmcdirmid
That has always been true for the last 10 years at least, at least they’ve
been talking about it. When it actually happens will be notable however.

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lamarpye
I am here to help

~~~
dang
Could you please stop posting unsubstantive comments to Hacker News?

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xuwu
It is not because of one child policy that results in male babies birth rate
higher than female’s. Actually，in China，this policy is not “powerful” to
everyone，especially in poor area.however，birth rate in poor area is much
severer（in many villages，it is possible that girls were killed when they were
born）.In ancient times，birth rate was still not equal（sometimes even worse
than today’ ）without one child policy.

