
Rampant misattributed paternity: creation of an urban myth [pdf] (2002) - bookofjoe
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f0e6/8a18bd173a390c97a8c49e678852eebb8f64.pdf?_ga=2.8148529.289584704.1561381037-1516775518.1561381037
======
belorn
Researchers could use the Swedish bio bank to get fairly accurate numbers as
the database was established in 1975 and include all that was born between
then and now.

As for the numbers in the study there is several factors that either increases
or decreases the rate. Those that decrease the rate are studies that requiring
informed consent, marriage, and high social economic status. For groups where
all three is true you get rates around or below 1%, and for paternity testing
labs which has the opposite of demographic you get around 20%. The true
average is thus hard to establish as almost all existing studies has biased
sampling from all of those factors.

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reagent_finder
Huh. I think I've run into the same 20-30% figures a lot and just sort of
filed them as Internet fact in the back of my head. It's heartwarming to know
that __actual __studies put the number around 0,5-3%

It doesn't take much thought to figure out why the 20-30% numbers are
trumpeted loud and wide: The implications are nasty and visceral and when
there's a number like that you feel like there's a point behind it, so you
start to wonder. Of course, it's the same as with any fear peddler; if you get
an emotional response to a news that seems to touch your life, you can be
pretty sure you're being sold snake oil for someone else's benefit.

Why not take the message of this research in a positive manner: Of those who
suspect false paternity, less than a third are correct.

~~~
dspillett
I suspect that it isn't just an "internet fact" (something made up and then
copied so many times it starts to look more truthful because of how many times
it is seen, because not all those sources can be wrong can they?).

The higher figures may well be real, but have been taken from biased sources.
If the figures come from paternity testing lab results then you are
automatically biasing the data towards those that are suspicious of a
paternity matter due to other correlated factors. People with no such
suspicions are excluded from the results because they don't take the tests,
and they would pull the average figure down if they took part in a test (but
why would they think to?).

~~~
lawlessone
There is one or two internet communities that would likely have an interest in
spreading this "internet fact"

~~~
dspillett
True. Though that doesn't mean the figure didn't have some basis in truth,
just with a collection of caveats (that those groups chose to, err, not
confuse their sheep with).

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michaelt
It makes sense that it would be hard to get reliable data on this: Paternity
testing labs would be biased towards people who were suspicious; studies
requiring informed consent would be biased against people with something to
hide; and any study at a hospital or suchlike would be biased by patient
demographics.

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alexryan
We have twice as many female ancestors as male. That's not a myth. It's an
uncomfortable truth.

~~~
s_kilk
Citation?

Also, why an "uncomfortable" truth? Doesn't bother me in the slightest. I
suspect there's an axe being ground here.

~~~
alexryan
New York Times The Missing Men in Your Family Tree, 2007 You might be right.
My partner got herself pregnant by another man and tried to convince me that I
was the father. If the woman who you thought loved you did this to you, it
might bother you slightly.

~~~
saagarjha
I feel like there might be a significant difference in emotional response for
false paternity ten generations up your family tree versus instances that
affect you personally.

~~~
alexryan
Fair. My understanding is that in each generation HALF of the males have their
genes exterminated. In "12 Rules for Life", Jordan Peterson says that human
female choosiness is the reason why humans evolved faster than chimpanzees, so
I guess this is for the best.

I suspect this is why rates of male suicide are so much higher than female
suicide. Why bother to live if you are genetically unfit?

Women know this. I suspect this is why the rates of postpartum depression in
women is nearly twice as high when the baby is a boy. They know there is a
high probability that their baby is destined for a life of suffering.

~~~
s_kilk
Peterson is a hack, and 12 rules is trash. Don't get taken in by that crap.

~~~
alexryan
Yeah. Personally, I think Peterson is in the business of offering false hope
to the condemned. A useful service to the elites. But the evidence is the
evidence. Suppressing the truth is not a good long term strategy in the age of
the internet.

~~~
0815test
Do you really think "false hope" is more common than "false hopelessness"?

(Related: [https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/06/09/all-debates-are-
braver...](https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/06/09/all-debates-are-bravery-
debates/) )

~~~
alexryan
Have you experienced having a woman you loved and who genuinely seemed to be
in love with you get pregnant by another man and try to convince you that you
that you are father?

There is nothing "false" about the hopelessness that you feel when this
happens to you.

~~~
mrguyorama
Do you not realize your reality might be a bit warped by this life altering
event?

~~~
alexryan
~50% of males have their genes exterminated each generation.

Their experience of reality is probably very different than yours.

That does not mean that their reality is not real.

If you are not part of this group, congrats on winning the genetic lottery.

Their reality may indeed seem very “warped” to you.

But the probability is high that either your sons or your grandsons will
experience this warped reality as well.

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SiempreViernes
This should be labelled 2005, as indicated in the footer and by the text
irself that references events in 2005.

Don’t know why the copyright statement on the first page says 2002, that’s a
bit weird.

