

How customer development prevented another failure - todd3834
http://toddwilliams.me/how-customer-development-prevented-another-fa

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elgato75
this is really flawed logic. i hope no one takes this advice. including todd.
here is sample size calculator - <http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm>

if he had 100 clicks and 3 buys, then his margin of error with 95% certainty
is +/- 3.4% - maybe that's enough to make a difference?

but more importantly, companies like twitter never happen under this
methodology. i guess this may be sort of ok to use for incremental products,
but nothing big will ever be developed this way.

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rokhayakebe
I find CD to be very dangerous. Let's say you have a decent idea. After
creating the landing page you toy with 300 dollars worth of adwords, facebook
ads and other media buys. Lets say you end up with 3000 visits. The problem is
that you are not likely to get the right sample with that small amount of
visitors. You probably need to go through a multitude of ad variations and
segmentations to find the right market.

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todd3834
I agree and in fact was starting to wonder if I was developing false
negatives. However, if you get a positive response it is less likely to be a
false positive.

