
Mary Meeker's 2016 Internet Trends Report [pdf] - conorh
http://www.kpcb.com/file/2016-internet-trends-report
======
_xander
The concept of Messenger becoming a second homescreen for the smartphone is an
interesting one. Suddenly their decision to separate Messenger from Facebook
on mobile makes a lot more sense. If you think of Messenger as a different
_type_ of interface, I think the value-add are the limitations it places on
providers: services have to be primarily text-based and updates will all
arrive as nested within one push notification (at least on android). Plus, as
the analysis mentioned, the threading, logs and identity functionality is
built-in. It's almost like having a terminal window for a bunch of rigid
functions that works in plain English and anyone can get to grips with.

Now I'm thinking about a parallel universe where text-based interfaces never
went away...

~~~
andrewmb
You should download and explore WeChat (微信）. It seems like facebook at this
point is now chasing functionality that's been present in Chinese apps for
several years. WeChat lets you order food, buy train tickets, etc in addition
to the messaging. The comparison I've heard is that in software B2C China is
ahead by 5 years, B2B USA leads by 5 years. And China is defining new C2C and
O2O. Hardware is a toss-up.

~~~
thirdsun
This is an essential piece if you're interested in this topic:
[http://dangrover.com/blog/2016/04/20/bots-wont-replace-
apps....](http://dangrover.com/blog/2016/04/20/bots-wont-replace-apps.html)

A lot of the features WeChat offers seem to make sense - it surprised me.

~~~
collinmanderson
What I want to know is, why hasn't WeChat been done in English yet?

~~~
inlandrookie
It has.

------
billhendricksjr
Was surprised to see Ring get mentioned so prominently in the deck. Then I saw
them on [http://www.kpcb.com/companies](http://www.kpcb.com/companies).

They disclosed it at the end of the deck, but that's some great pub for Ring.
If they wanted to use an example that resonated with more of the audience,
Nest would have been a better choice.

~~~
imjk
Same with a bunch of companies in there. Looker quickly comes to mind. Looker
is a great company IMO but there's a lot of other great companies in the
space.

~~~
iokevins
KPCB Looker page:

[http://www.kpcb.com/companies/looker](http://www.kpcb.com/companies/looker)

Looker Blog, noting Mary Meeker's inclusion of Looker:

[https://looker.com/blog/catching-third-
wave](https://looker.com/blog/catching-third-wave)

"Looker Secures $48 Million Series C Funding from Kleiner Perkins" (January
2016):

[https://looker.com/news/press/looker-secures-48-million-
seri...](https://looker.com/news/press/looker-secures-48-million-series-c-
funding-from-kleiner-perkins)

------
graycat
A good part: Suggestion that there may be a lot more emphasis in social media
on real time video. E.g., some bros in several cities watch the NBA playoffs
'together' except can't ask to pass a brewski and the chips and dip.

Not so good: For Silicon Valley interested in valuable innovations, there was
a lot of emphasis on the economy as a whole. Sure, maybe for a while some
entrepreneurs or companies got big financial returns basically taking existing
US/EU/Japan tech into countries that were still short on running water. Maybe.
But that's not really a Silicon Valley thing.

I believe that the big thing missing was innovation. That is, the report was
similar to the common statement of about 1900 that all the big discoveries in
physics were done with. Well, the report gave too little weight to what
innovation there could be in the next 10 years. I.e., the report placed much
more emphasis on population and GDP growth than innovation growth.

Part of the report turned me off: There was a lot of emphasis on digital
electronics in cars. I have a car, for all the reasons people have wanted cars
for a long time. I do like the digital electronics for management of fuel
mixture and ignition timing. Otherwise, I want NOTHING in my car digital -- I
don't want to use it, pay for it, or pay to maintain it. Besides, the US car
industry is not up to doing a good job with digital in the design and
manufacturing, and the maintenance part of the car industry is in much less
good shape with digital.

Digital was great to replace typewriters, ..., and bring us the Internet, but
I see nothing I want from digital in a car. The car that is $1 cheaper and has
as little digital as possible is the one I will buy.

------
12345671
Her Google Trends data analysis is bad - see
[http://www.seolondonsurrey.co.uk/blog/bad-google-trends-
data...](http://www.seolondonsurrey.co.uk/blog/bad-google-trends-data-analysis
--mary-meeker-2016-internet-trends-report)

------
mikeyouse
The same report in slide form and not PDF'd;

[http://www.kpcb.com/internet-trends](http://www.kpcb.com/internet-trends)

------
bogomipz
How does this woman still have a job?

Mary Meeker and Henry Blodget are symbols of greed from first dot com bust.
These two knowing cheered on worthless tech stocks that went bust, they did it
right until the end. These two hucksters walked away with small fortunes in
fees collected while analysts at Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch. They did
this as everyone else went belly up. If the ratings agencies were complicit in
the 2008 financial meltdown these two played the same supporting role in in
the 2001 dot com bust.

[http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB984003129896660782](http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB984003129896660782)

Blodget is just as much of a scum bag:

[http://www.lawyershop.com/practice-areas/criminal-
law/white-...](http://www.lawyershop.com/practice-areas/criminal-law/white-
collar-crimes/securities-fraud/lawsuits/merrill-lynch)

~~~
WoodenChair
I read the WSJ article you linked to. Undoubtedly she made some very bad calls
during the Internet bubble - as did most analysts - that's why it's a
'bubble.' However, we shouldn't permanently marginalize/attack somebody for
mistakes they made in their career 15 years ago. This slide deck IMHO is
amazing, and surely mostly compiled by researchers/interns, not Ms. Meeker.

~~~
bogomipz
Are you joking? We shouldn't blame the analyst who was actively recommending
people buy garbage but we should blame her interns? The buck stops with her.
If she hadn't looked at the data then she had no business recommending other
people to buy something. People lost real money and lots of it. Saying she
made "some bad calls" is an insane understatement. She profited heavily from
other peoples losses. So yes we should continue to hold in low regard someone
who so willfully misled the public for her own gain. And no its not a bubble
because someone made "some bad calls."

------
jonstewart
"Millennials: Want To Be Discovered"

"Gen Z: Want To Work For Success"

The graphs are great, but there's a lot of drivel like this. It is a curious
combination of pessimism (global growth drivers are dying), optimism (Houzz!),
hard data, and glittering generalities.

~~~
kristianc
'Generation Z' are what, 15 now?

~~~
jonstewart
Just a generation of hustlers, mowing lawns and babysitting.

~~~
miguelrochefort
I'm fascinated by generation Z.

I wonder what comes next.

~~~
jonathankoren
If it's anything like named storms[0], Generation Alpha.

I'd also like to go on record as saying that all of the recent generations are
just poor imitations to the original letter generation, Gen X. We complained
about lack of decent jobs, debt, and emptiness the wealthy, long before you
kids, and we did it better music too. You're welcome.

[0]
[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames_history.shtml](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames_history.shtml)

------
wslh
Adblocking is part of the report now. Adblocking can be a nightmare and it was
reported on Google reports before.

~~~
B1FF_PSUVM
Arrived. Where's the pic Maciej used for the coming implosion?

Ah, here we go:
[http://www.idlewords.com/2015/11/the_advertising_bubble.htm](http://www.idlewords.com/2015/11/the_advertising_bubble.htm)

------
whysonot
Interesting to see not a single mention of VR/AR

~~~
shogun21
I think that industry is still too young. We don't yet know if it'll take off
or just be a fad.

~~~
feverishaaron
Kind of like the internet in 1992

~~~
potatolicious
Or the tamagotchi in 1998...

The fact that [uncertain thing] became a huge, lasting hit doesn't really give
us information about [different uncertain thing], except the knowledge that
the probability of being a hit is non-zero.

~~~
feverishaaron
I don't think that's totally accurate. If you consider the popularity of
adjacent technologies (games, mobile devices, entertainment), it's logical to
predict that a certain technology will also be noteworthy.

------
miguelrochefort
I don't believe speech or text is the future of communication. Videos and
images are much better candidates, but they will need to be augmented with
something else.

I believe that we'll see a new visual language arrive soon enough, and it will
be adopted faster than any previous language in history by generation Z (and
the next). I suspect needs in AR will lead to the design of such a language. I
wouldn't be surprised to see it prove the Sapir-Whorf hypothesis.

~~~
MichaelGG
Well it's sadly arriving in the form of emoji. Search by emoji! Type sentences
with emoji! And on and on. Reminds me of A Young Lady's Illustrated Primer.
She's illiterate, but still uses her molecular assemblers and other appliances
just by tapping in icons.

------
georgewsinger
Has she given a video presentation on this yet? If so, link?

~~~
ryanburk
[http://www.recode.net/2016/6/1/11826256/mary-
meeker-2016-int...](http://www.recode.net/2016/6/1/11826256/mary-
meeker-2016-internet-trends-report)

there is video from her at the code conference

------
anotherhacker
The powerpoint format tells you it prioritizes presentation ( appeal to suits
), over content. A document / paper would have been much better.

[https://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/powerpoint](https://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/powerpoint)

~~~
pboutros
Two points to keep in mind:

\- It's a deck with 200+ slides, so it's going to probably have decent content
in there somewhere.

\- A document / paper would have been better for you, but you're not really
the intended audience.

The whole idea behind these syndicated reports is to drive business to their
firm either by being consumed by 'suits' who commission those reports, or by
being cited in presentations delivered to other 'suits' who might go on to
commission a report from them.

------
11thEarlOfMar
Sometimes, I like to take a step back and think about this.

If I have something to say, I can build a web page of some sort and
3,000,000,000 human beings can see what I put there.

Thanks to translation services, most of them will even be able to read it.

I mean, 3,000,000,000 people can read this comment.

Does that astonish anyone else?

~~~
amasad
Working with these kind of number of users is kind of insane. Not exactly 3B
but during my first quarter at FB I broke some obscure flow for uploading
photos that people going to the website using phones that opt out of the
mobile site might end up in. I would've never figured out that I needed to
test it. And within the hour it affected 25 million people!

------
meeper16
We should be calling these something different now.

