
Europe's Record Youth Unemployment - vellum
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/05/europes-record-youth-unemployment-the-scariest-graph-in-the-world-just-got-scarier/276423/
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kposehn
Youths with nothing to lose are how bloody revolutions start, rarely turning
out well for any involved.

I find one thing about the unemployment rate in Europe truly scary:

There are a /lot/ of youths there with nothing to lose.

~~~
kposehn
And another thing: austerity is all that stands between Europe and total
collapse. They can't keep writing checks they cannot cash.

~~~
JamisonM
Actually, they can keep writing cheques and cashing them, they have their own
currency, it allows you to do that. The current problem is that the "core" of
the EU thinks it is in their best interest to keep inflation down and let the
other nations suffer. The best evidence we have so far indicates that this is
a very bad idea.

~~~
sliverstorm
_The best evidence we have so far indicates that this is a very bad idea._

Do we have evidence that indicates the alternative is any better? There's
nothing that says both options can't be terrible.

~~~
snowwrestler
The U.S. has not followed a program of austerity, and our economy and hiring
is recovering faster than Europe's.

~~~
sliverstorm
Apples and oranges. The U.S. didn't crash as hard, and doesn't have some of
the EU's unique challenges.

~~~
jckt
Likewise the converse statement is true and, I believe, important to mention
explicitly: the USA has a uniquely advantageous position in this world.

------
hkmurakami
This is scary, yes. But there's more to any unemployment story than just the
stats.

What are the prospects of an unemployed young person getting a job at any
point in the future, even when the economy recovers? Is there a strong bias
towards new grads, that would lead to a "lost generation" that permanently
suffers in the job market? How does society look on the unemployed? Do they
look at them with sympathy or scorn?

Lastly, how do the young unemployed _feel_? Are they angry? Are they carefree?
Or are they filled with despair and hopelessness?

~~~
jcrites
How are they making a living and otherwise providing for themselves? (Serious
question.)

Is homelessness also skyrocketing, or do the unemployed receive benefits of
some kind?

~~~
flexie
It's different from country to country, but in general lot's of them live with
their parents and most of them receive some welfare.

In Southern Europe it's not unnormal to live with your parents way into your
twenties or even early thirties. And it's not considered embarrassing either.
In the cafés of Barcelona, Rome, Athens, you will meet the well dressed 31
year old guy with a smart phone in his pocket a laptop on his knees and a
girlfriend by his side. He drives a nice little car, goes on vacations once or
twice a year, has a master in something soft, which he got for free, and he is
covered by free health care. He lives with his parents or - if he is lucky -
in one of their spare apartments (lots of Southern European families have more
than one home). He may have a low paid job or he may be unemployed living with
a bit of government welfare and occational help from daddy.

~~~
autodafe
Welfare, free health care, free education... Free to him but it has to be paid
for by someone. As more people rely on those benefits, the cost goes up for
those who contribute to the system. The frightening question is what happens
when the well runs dry?

~~~
zanny
Considering how, in the US at least, wealth and asset holdings has extremely
concentrated itself in the top fraction of the population in the last 30
years, probably not soon.

I mean, most of these states aren't raising taxes, but are playing with
monetary gears to keep money injection from spurring inflation (albeit they
have had huge taxes for decades).

~~~
autodafe
Just because the well runs deep, doesn't mean it's right to steal water from
it, unearned.

~~~
obstacle1
In the end capital ownership and property rights are just concepts we've
collectively agreed are legitimate. Once living conditions become dystopian
and wealth inequality skyrockets even more than it already has, I suspect
society will legitimize "stealing" from the well.

Notably, the well doesn't care whether or not you steal water from it. The
water was never 'owned' by it in the first place.

~~~
autodafe
I agree that ownership and property rights are an invention - though one of a
free society. And you are correct that society can just as easily decide that
these rights are no longer valid, though that is not a society I would ever
consider free. To a certain extent that is happening already. The day the
individual is forced to give up his last right and his last dollar to the ugly
greed of the 'collective good' will be a sad day indeed.

~~~
kalleboo
Imagine a future where self-driving cars (=home delivery taking over retail),
3D printers, fully automated factories, and the death of
copyright/intellectual property has put 75% of the population out of work.
It's hard to imagine anything BUT some kind of socialist/communist system
required.

------
jcrites
It would be great if the US government provided an expedited Visa program for
college-educated foreign nationals who have received a job offer from a
company in the US. There is H1B, but that applies to specialty occupations.
(I'm not an immigration expert - perhaps this already exists and I don't know
about it?)

How many people from those countries immigrate to the US or wish to? If
they're willing to work, and a company here has offered them a job, I say
bring them over!

    
    
      Give me your tired, your poor,
      Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free;
      The wretched refuse of your teeming shore,
      Send these, the homeless,
      Tempest-tossed to me
      I lift my lamp beside the golden door!
    

(I do get the impression that Google, Microsoft, Amazon, etc. can hire the
candidates they want, but is that true for smaller companies as well?)

The article mentioned that about 30% are college educated. It would be
interesting to look at a breakdown of degrees. For example, many Science,
Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics graduates are highly sought after in
industry. Additionally, are the degrees reputable from an international
perspective and in fields suitable by commerce and industry?

~~~
mullingitover
As someone who'd like to drive down the value of my labor down to poverty
levels, this is a fantastic idea.

~~~
potatolicious
Oh, this is just hysteria. The kind of software engineers that Amazon, Google,
Facebook, et al are importing are _all_ above the six-figure threshold, many
of them _well_ above it.

This community really makes me facepalm sometimes. It is the only group that
can, while getting free massages, catered meals, free shuttles to/from work,
get paid _well_ into the six figures, and enjoys an incredibly high standard
of living even by its own country's standards, still make noises as if they're
the exploited proletariat that can't make ends meet.

Whatever the effect of skilled immigration - some argue it raises all boats,
others argue it suppresses wages, "down to poverty levels" is dishonest
hysterics when applied to our industry.

~~~
zalzane
Who says all those immigrants are going to be high-end google-worthy
engineers?

The chances are in favor that they would drive down the pay of the first
quartile of programmers based on quality, not the savants making 100k+/y.

~~~
zanny
This would suck. I got a crappy CS degree from a nobody college, got average
(3.5) gpa, got out in 3 years and didn't get any internships my first two
years (though I tried) so I've just been doing my own stuff for a year.

I'd hate for the job market to be even _harder_ for fresh CS grads _not_ out
of an Ivy League or state school. Most of my graduating class just gave up and
went for cheaper masters programs, I figured I'd learn more on my own (and I
was right, I learned half a dozen new languages, and a lot of the practical
parts of development like regexes, sql, unix commands and sysadmining, etc).

------
pyre
The graphs and the unemployment stats seem to be about people 25 and under,
but then when talking about how educated the workforce is, the author talks
about 20- and early-30-somethings. The 26 to early 30's part of that stat
means it's not directly comparable.

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sebkomianos
Another quite scary graph:
[http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/im...](http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/06/Europe%20unemployment%20country.jpg)

I hope it's getting clear to everyone that this is not a "union" anymore..

~~~
flexie
And then this is not a union either: [http://www.ncsl.org/issues-
research/labor/state-unemployment...](http://www.ncsl.org/issues-
research/labor/state-unemployment-update.aspx) The difference between
unemployment in North Dakota and Puerto Rico is 4 fold, not that different
from Austria vs. Greece.

Also, the figures for Greece are the February figures. The largest industry in
Greece, tourism, takes off right about now, and last year on the beach in
Greece there were plenty of young Greeks working the beaches, bars and hotels.
But of course, many of these jobs are unofficial so they may continue to count
as unemployed.

~~~
sebkomianos
I don't know as much about how the USA works as a union but, no, it sure
doesn't look like a union either. :) But they are not threatening to kick
California out of the US if it doesn't pay its debts, right?

As for tourism, yes, it's going to be slightly reduced in July, but do you
think it's nice to wait for 3-4 months to work?

Also, they are going to vote for an austerity measure to give seasonal workers
an unemployment aid not every year but every two years. At the same time a
former minister of defence, who is jailed for corruption scandals, is
receiving two pensions every month.

------
lignuist
Interesting, how Germany decoupled itself from the rest of Europe in this
graph.

~~~
pachydermic
It is. I think the reasons for it are pretty simple:

They didn't experience a huge housing bubble (like Spain) They don't have a
big productivity problem (like Greece) Their government's finances weren't
totally unsustainable (like Spain or Greece) They don't depend a great deal on
tourism (like Greece). No one seems to want to go on vacation to a rioting and
unstable country.

Hopefully things will improve for those countries... but it's pretty easy to
be a pessimist given the situation.

~~~
hkmurakami
The issue with Spain lies is the (private) banks, not government finances.
Unlike Greece, where the government needs to get bailed out, in Spain it is
the banks that are in trouble.

~~~
toomuchtodo
The banks were in trouble in Ireland, and Ireland stood behind them (which
destroyed them). The banks in Iceland were in trouble and Iceland walked away
from them. Much less pain in Iceland compared to what Ireland is going
through.

When in doubt and able, default.

~~~
kalleboo
Iceland had their own currency though, and from the looks of a graph I googled
up they inflated the ISK 100% since before the crisis. Ireland and Spain don't
have that option.

~~~
toomuchtodo
They do have the option; walk away from the Euro.

~~~
kalleboo
Technically? Yes, that's probably their best option. Politically? Very, very
difficult.

------
niles
What's a good website to directly target skilled workers in Spain / Greece /
Italy / etc? I'm always on the look for good design, code, marketing, writing,
really just about anything (even with a little language barrier).

oDesk and similar don't seem to attract what I would consider to be 70% of a
country's workforce. Any sense of if they have training / skills?

Where are these people looking for work (online)?

~~~
iaskwhy
As far as I know (I'm Portuguese), everything in Europe is very local so
people are looking for work on their countries local job sites. There's also
another problem that probably affect more the Portuguese people than the
others: if you had a job you were paid a really low salary (the average is
probaly around 800 EUR/month net), you were not able to save enough money to
go abroad so, for most people, that is not an option.

------
rafski
Nobody's hiring in Southern EU countries, because firing is too
difficult/expensive there. All the protectionist laws that were meant to keep
the employee secure naturally backfired and resulted in a steadily shrinking
job market.

Employing someone in EU is like accepting them into a kindergarten, you assume
full responsibility for them as if they weren't adults.

Matt Henderson gives an eye-opening first-hand report from Spain here:

[http://www.dafacto.com/2011/02/12/the-unfortunate-
consequenc...](http://www.dafacto.com/2011/02/12/the-unfortunate-consequence-
of-protective-social-laws-in-spain/)

Allow the employers to fire easily, they will have no problem hiring again.

------
Irishsteve
Just anecdotal stuff,

Friends in Greece who work for the government have not been paid for 6 - 9
months. But they stay in the job for whenever the pay day does come.

Friends in Spain work for cash in hand because their potential employers save
money on the various social insurance costs they have to put up, but cannot
afford because times are tight.

Local mid size companies are using the down turn as a great excuse to let
people go, while pushing their own salary up. (Noted from friends who work in
payroll who have access to that kinda info)

~~~
iaskwhy
I don't think the cash in hand thing is happening in Portugal which is kind of
surprising giving the small salary you get per month and the amount of taxes
you pay now. Maybe they have some catch up to do.

~~~
disgruntledphd2
There's a lot of it in Ireland, but then, there was a lot of it in Ireland
even when times were good. We have this sense, as a nation, that if you can
beat the system and get money for nothing, then you should. Probably a
holdover from colonial times, which is sad.

------
brownbat
The conventional (conservative/economic liberal/libertarian) wisdom is that
employers are reluctant to hire new youths because these states mandate so
many employer provided protections for any new hires. Employers become risk
averse, unwilling to give anyone untested a first shot at the labor market.

Evidence is somewhat mixed based on this chart. The UK has traditionally had
lower severance ("redundancy") pay requirements, and is lower on the chart,
but close to the EU average. Germany is fairly low on the chart as well, so...
maybe youth unemployment is driven more by GDP / worker productivity /
promotion of internships / demographics, any number of confounding factors.

The risk of even discussing this idea, even agnostically, is it can beg
attacks on the social safety net, so everyone drowns in the quicksand of
passionate partisan shouting.

Maybe there's a way to sidestep the traditional arguments and get something
out of the discussion. Say we assume the European safety net is non-
negotiable, but say we also believe that employee protections may make
employers reluctant to hire. Is there a way to implement the same social
protections that would blunt the unintended consequences?

~~~
anonymous
That's pretty much entirely false, at least as I can see it. Employers can and
do hire young, inexperienced people on contracts that say "we can fire you
when we want and we don't owe you". Those aren't proper long-term labour
contracts, true, but it's precisely what you want for someone who's getting a
job for the very first time in their life.

Edit: for the record, I'm from Bulgaria and our unemployment rate for under 25
years-olds is 28%, according to latest Eurostat data. Back in 2008 we were at
nearly German levels (11% vs 10%). Interestingly, Germany is the only country
whose rate has gone down rather than up in the last few years. Their graph is
almost perfectly asymmetrical with the ones for countries of Eastern Europe.

~~~
claudius
That’s because Germany implemented the necessary social reforms before the
crash (around 2005), rather than after. It also still has a superior education
programme with apprenticeships for standard jobs, as well as cheap university
access with extra funding for poorer people.

Edit: You can even see this in the graph. German youth unemployment peaked in
2005, well before the financial crisis but after a decade of slow growth, also
cf. [0].

[0] <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sick_man_of_Europe#Modern_use>

------
sidcool
News of this kind makes me confused, scared and angry. Confused because of
questions like 'Is Government directly responsible for jobs?', 'What is the
skill set of the youth?' etc. Scared because the youth have families to feed,
they have ambitions and this leads to a rise in suicides among the youth.
Angry because the government, due to their poor economic choices, have ruined
the dreams of the youth. The government is responsible for providing
opportunities and freedom, if not employment. But they fail, for various
reasons, including corruption, dirty politics, poor economic choices etc.

------
422long
Is there a correlation between high-unemployment countries and the
availability/quality of off-shore tech labor?

Sure the local market may be in shambles, and the level of effort/risk to
bring on new permanent employees may be out of whack. Assuming the talent and
drive exists, shouldn't this drive the freelancing segment?

~~~
zanny
As someone trying to get into freelancing out of college, it _really_ blows
without a portfolio, and can take years to make one, and most of my freelancer
friends left 9-5 (more like 6-10) jobs in the industry to do freelance, and
used their years of experience and connections from the job as a jumping off
point.

------
mtgx
Usually job growth comes from startups, especially in tough times. If Europe
had a stronger startup culture, it could've helped, especially for young
people.

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pinaceae
it's bad, but not as bad as these stats make it seem.

a lot of those youths do have jobs, but simply are paid cash in hand. when
asked, they are unemployed for tax and insurance reasons. as long as illegal
immigrant workers are working on the fields of spain, uneomployment simply
cannot be that bad.

nobody is starving. roads, bars, stadiums are full. money is circulating in
the system. it just is black, untaxed.

~~~
gaius
You've hit the nail on the head there. Go to any cafe or bar in London and the
chances are you will be served by a Pole. Think about that for a second: the
labour situation in the UK is such that we have to import workers from 600
miles away to make coffee. Now these people aren't being paid under the table,
they are legal employees or legitimate companies. So where are the Brits who
could be doing these jobs? For whatever reason, unavailable.

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1morepassword
Take one look at that graphic and tell me that there is such a thing as
"Europe", other than as a continent on a map.

~~~
EliRivers
I could say the same thing about the US by looking at Detroit and New York,
for example.

