
The TV Industry Will Unravel Faster Than People Think - Doubleguitars
https://medium.com/lightspeed-venture-partners/the-tv-industry-will-unravel-faster-than-you-think-283485420ca6#.dai145ph7
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two2two
While TV mega-conglomerates transition into the future focusing on what they
think works best for their business model to maintain/increase revenue, others
like myself see what it should be, access to everything whenever access is
wanted.

"Unraveling" television isn't what's happening, it's a huge knot that needs to
be cut out. Netflix is now successful as a content producer, not just a
distributor. Netflix has become a channel, and I'm okay with a handful of
channels that collectively have all of the content that I get to choose which
I subscribe. Make it simple:

Two all you can eat options: 1) Subscription w/ no ads 2) No subscription w/
ads.

\- Any pre-recorded video content should be on demand through a subscription
service or rental service.

\- Any live content should be streamed online, with rental/purchase access for
the time of the content, unless content is under one of the subscription
umbrellas

\- Implement better filtering systems to find content based on studio, talent,
reviews/ratings, date, and the other categories already established

\- Major networks need to pull the bandaid off, and stop this confusing
business of licensing per device (content removal after expiration, only on
web not on mobile)

While I understand this is easier said than done, we all know what the best
experience would be in the end, and eventually we'll get there, but
communicating that to the TV heads of yesterday shouldn't take stripping them
of viewers and revenue by moving over to services such as Netflix. It's such a
slow transition this way.

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ebbv
I think the idea that Facebook, Snapchat and Twitter would be the biggest
beneficiaries is mistaken. Facebook is obviously a behemoth in anything it
does just because its user base is so huge right now, but it is in decline.
The future of anything is not in Facebook. Young people know Facebook isn't
cool.

Snapchat is cute but it's never going to be the dominant anything. It's an app
for seeing pictures of naked girls that people also use to share pictures of
food and stuff.

Twitter has also stagnated and Periscope was a still birth.

Youtube is the king of online video, and will continue to be so for some time.
Twitch is the king of streaming live gaming video, and will continue to
dominate that space. Its efforts to expand into other areas have been hindered
by the fact that a) the audience for watching people do other stuff besides
play games live is not as big and b) for things that might have some audience
appeal like say cooking or whatever, Twitch hasn't reached those audiences
(and its not friendly to those audiences since everything about Twitch screams
gaming. Which it should since that's where its money is.)

The place where Youtube and Twitch fall flat is narrative entertainment video.
Netflix, Hulu and Amazon obviously dominate that space. I agree with the
analysis that the current industry mindset of "We all make our own apps and
make our own money!" is not the future. Everybody's only limiting their own
audiences there. If anyone can manage to bundle multiple quality video
subscription services (e.g. if Amazon could bundle Hulu + HBO) _of your
choosing_ they would see massive subscriber increases.

That's the thing that's missing right now, is a la cart bundling. And why the
cable industry is dying. We by default have a la cart bundling online right
now but there's no discount for doing multiple. If someone can manage that
(i.e. Apple) they're in a good state.

~~~
untog
> The future of anything is not in Facebook. Young people know Facebook isn't
> cool.

The future doesn't have to be cool, though. Facebook is nearing the position
of just being a universal social platform. Not "buzzy" and "cool", but
nonetheless something everyone uses.

> Snapchat is cute but it's never going to be the dominant anything. It's an
> app for seeing pictures of naked girls that people also use to share
> pictures of food and stuff.

OK, you lost me there. I don't use Snapchat myself, but even at a quick glance
it's clear that the younger generation use it obsessively, for everything. The
"naked pics" argument hasn't been true in years.

~~~
ebbv
It's past the point of being something everybody uses, that's what I was
getting at. Young people don't use Facebook and more and more people are
leaving it. I think we are past Peak Facebook. :)

Snapchat has high usage right now but it's like Instagram or Flickr or Yahoo
Images before it, it's not a social network and it's easily abandoned at a
moment. In fact, even more easily than any of those since you don't have a
library of content on it that you are tied to.

~~~
panglott
It's not that FB isn't cool. Facebook is something for people who have
established identities. It's not a place where you can experiment with
different identities. Young people have FB accounts, but they don't spend much
time there b/c youth is the time you have to establish an identity of your
own.

~~~
ebbv
That's not it at all. FB is just lame. It's the place where your grandma posts
rants about Obama being Hitler. It's the place where your mom comments on all
your pictures with your friends.

It has nothing to do with establishing an identity and everything to do with
it being the online equivalent of your Aunt's living room on Thanksgiving.

~~~
panglott
Defining and expressing "coolness" is an essential part of articulating an
identity. As is curating your relationships to different audiences.

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cylinder
All that's changing is the medium. The media aren't even that different -- the
same coaxial I plugged into for television and internet now gives me just
internet which I use to view the same content as before via Netflix, PSVue,
HBO Go, etc.

As for financial news, I watch Bloomberg which has already streamed on many
devices including Roku for years.

I don't want to watch television on my laptop or phone either. I want it on my
television.

~~~
sintaxi
> All that's changing is the medium.

This is not a minor thing. The competitive landscape and barrier to entry is
completely different on an open platform like the web.

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grillvogel
this is just a blog post from an investor who wants this to happen.

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serge2k
> It seeks to reinvent financials news for the millennial generation.

Is it horribly cynical to think this is just going to be an even worse version
of something like CNN?

~~~
theandrewbailey
Am I completely off by thinking that good content will be popular across
generations without needing to focus on only one?

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n36345342
I just wish I could pay 20-30 bucks per month, and stream all sport live.

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soyiuz
> The most obvious beneficiaries of the decline of old TV media will be the
> dominant social networks who nail video: Facebook, Snapchat,* and perhaps
> Twitter, if the whole Periscope thing works out.

I did a double take at this. Snapchat and Twitter? Where are Youtube, Netflix,
Hulu, or Twitch?

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guimarin
I am not able to load chedder.com, hopefully they can bounce back relatively
quickly. [1]

Generally, I think this is a pretty good analysis. I think that it's very
difficult to predict when this shift is going to happen though. Clearly the
demographics are not in traditional TVs favor, but there are still significant
lock-in effects due to sports and other live events. There is also a
tremendous amount of media content that is owned by these traditional
networks, and on top of that they seem to be verticalizing.

As a milllenial, I don't have a cable TV subscription, I pay for
Netflix/Amazon due to the amazing original content and the non-stupid delivery
on my internet devices. I do watch a ton of TV shows through 'alternative'
means. For live sports, I either opt-out of the sport altogether, go to a bar,
or go to excruciating lengths to pick up an online stream. There is no easy
way to be a cord cutter due to a cluster-f __* of blackouts, poor distribution
systems, and ancient players trying desperately to cling to their old business
models. My household is probably worth another $20-$50 a month for a competent
streaming service. I will check out Cheddar. I 'm also not alone, basically
everyone in my income, age, and geographic breakdown is the same.

1\. I work for the CDN Fastly, if you are from Chedder we can help get your
site back online, email me at [myusername] @ fastly.com if you need
assistance.

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marrone12
it's [http://www.cheddar.com/](http://www.cheddar.com/) not chedder.

~~~
guimarin
Ahh, I see that now, Thank you! I went off the spelling and the link from the
Medium article.

