
Proposal to fix NYC’s subway and broader transit system expected to cost $19B - cohaagen
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/22/nyregion/nyc-subway-byford-proposal.html
======
triggercut
It's a shame that the focus is always on the capital outlay and not on the
cost benefit potential to be realized (both economic and non-economic). This
sort of spending should always be seen as an investment.

For instance, modern/improved signaling and train control technology will
allow you to run rolling stock at greater speeds with more frequency,
requiring less on-track maintenance. In other systems, undergoing recent
upgrades (for example) you can run a train every 3 minutes as opposed to 6. As
a commuter knowing you only have to wait a max (n)minutes as opposed to max
2(n) can be the difference between deciding to take a train or using some
other means of transport, especially if you can shave a few minutes off your
commute as well.

It gives the operators much more control over how they design services and run
their business. It's a key enabler.

~~~
partiallypro
> It's a shame that the focus is always on the capital outlay and not on the
> cost benefit potential to be realized (both economic and non-economic). This
> sort of spending should always be seen as an investment.

Every major city hires economists, often from universities, to do cost/benefit
analysis of major capital projects. To say the focus is always on cost is
nonsense. I've had to do cost-benefit analysis work before on earmarks. One of
my professors did cost/benefit in Nashville for bringing the Titans to town in
the late 90s. He recommended against it, in fact I think most economists on
the board did...but they ignored it because cost is more often ignored or
understated (by politicians,) contrary to your post. Look at the "big dig" in
Boston for instance, or the California high speed rail, both exploded over 5x
their expected budget.

Those are just examples, there are many others. I am willing to bet this
number is a low ball, especially when contractors, regulators, etc get
involved.

~~~
triggercut
>Every major city hires economists, often from universities, to do
cost/benefit analysis of major capital projects.

To be clear I was referring to how the greater public are informed on such
matters by the media / politicians.

I'm well aware of the projects you mention. I'm a consultant on capital
program / project governance but not sure I understand the relevance, I wasn't
really talking about the validity of estimates at any stage, just the focus on
them.

~~~
stevep001
If you’re interested in cost benefit analysis of large public projects,
Megaprojects and Risk is a must-read.

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megaprojects_and_Risk](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megaprojects_and_Risk)

~~~
triggercut
Yes, a fantastic read.

If you're interested in how we can avoid this happening, I can't talk to the
US, but in other jurisdictions governments and authorities (and some private
sector giants) are slowly adopting more mature governance approaches.
Implementing a Benefits Realization methodology
[[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benefits_realisation_managemen...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benefits_realisation_management)]
in their Portfolio for instance, Alliance contracting procurement models and
Integrated Project Delivery to more fairly apportion risk and accountability.
I'm cautiously optimistic.

------
Toxygene
I'm a developer in the Midwest and my team participated in the signaling
contest for the MTA Genius Challenge[1]. I handled gathering the raw data from
our hardware and generating visualizations for testing, troubleshooting, and
eventually presentation. Using a variety of hardware (ranging hardware on the
train and through the subway tunnel, Ulta-wideband[2] transmitters for sending
data, ect), we developed a Communications-based train control[3] system that
would allow for moving block signaling[4].

It was a fascinating few months of problem solving and troubleshooting. I have
fond memories of sitting at a folding table on the 7th Ave platform during a
cold week in January.

That said, I don't envy those still working on this project. There are so many
problem -- old signaling hardware that breaks down frequently and has to be
manufactured by the MTA because no one produces the parts anymore, slower
train speeds, track fires, train malfunctions, passenger-related delays... the
list goes on and on. I hope they're able work it all out because I really
enjoyed riding and working on the subways, even if only for a couple of
months.

1 -
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMjSi0ftLjA](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMjSi0ftLjA)

2 - [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra-
wideband](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra-wideband)

3 - [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communications-
based_train_con...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communications-
based_train_control)

4 -
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_block](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_block)

~~~
randyrand
why not just use the same signals as the hong kong metro? which is leagues
better. This seems like a solved problem.

~~~
Johnny555
I don't understand why transit agencies seem to reinvent the wheel when it
comes to signalling, Caltrain spent $250M+ on a custom CBOSS PTC signalling
system.... which I think they recently abandoned in favor of a standard
signaling system.

~~~
bobthepanda
The precursor agencies and corporations in New York developed signalling
systems that were cutting edge in the '30s, since there weren't a lot of
multinational signalling suppliers back then, nor were there a lot of metro
systems.

The current situation is what happens when you don't fund a replacement for
several decades.

------
wwarner
$19B for a new signaling system? A true "sweeping overhall" will include a
hell of a lot more than that. There was a times article a few weeks ago that
sketched out a much more ambitious overhall, and pegged the price at $100B,
which still sounded low to me.

I'm a subway commuter, I really love the subway system, and my emotions want
to invest in it. And we should plan big. I think the greater NYC area could
double or triple in population as the world grows and be more stimulating and
productive than it's ever been. I guess my honest question is whether the
subways are a prerequisite for that outcome, or if more WeWorks, satellite
offices, telecommuting and suburban financial centers are more sane.

~~~
abraae
Genuine question - how could it possibly cost $100B to upgrade a "signalling
system"?

~~~
repolfx
It shouldn't cost that much, but signalling is surprisingly expensive because
pre-computerised signalling systems rely on large amounts of heavy equipment
installed trackside, and trains can't run without coherent signalling. So
changing it can only be done in small pieces, small parts at a time, yet
labour and equipment must be constantly available. For this reason the
productivity of railway workers is quite low but unavoidably so; they spend
most of their time just waiting for tracks to clear.

------
zcbenz
By contrast, the new Chuo Shinkansen connecting Tokyo and Nagoya, which is
286km maglev line, costs 46 billion U.S. dollars.

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chūō_Shinkansen](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chūō_Shinkansen)

~~~
codyb
A new above ground track comes nowhere near the cost of updating a subway
system below an extremely dense metropolis that will attempt to keep running
24/7/365?

Not much of a shocker there. That’s a true apples to oranges.

It is true that corruption has resulted in exorbitant cost over runs by the
MTA but I think this is a silly comparison.

------
cma
Works out to ~$2,111 per resident. About the same cost as a few years of car
insurance. That's including babies and stuff though, I'm not sure what it
works out to distributed among the regular ridership (which would also include
non-resident commuters).

~~~
gowld
<2 years of car insurance in NYC

[https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/insurance/cheapest-car-
insur...](https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/insurance/cheapest-car-insurance-in-
new-york-ny/)

But that number is only valid if the project delivers. Big if.

~~~
mayniac
Unrelated to the original article, but I find it unusual that young drivers
have cheaper insurance. In the UK younger people often pay over 2x more than
drivers in their 30s or 40s, mainly due to the 18-25 demographic having high
rates of reckless driving.

~~~
jessriedel
From the link: "Young drivers tend to need less coverage than motorists with
families or greater savings to protect, a factor that we included in our
analysis."

They are literally correcting for the fact that young driver's drive cheaper
cars less distance. It's definitely true in the US that car insurance is more
expensive for younger drivers when all other aspects are held fixed.

------
mindcrime
Yeah, expected to "cost" $19B, which means about $7B will actually be spent on
improving the infrastructure; while the rest will be back-channeled to the
coffers of various construction company executives, politicians, middlemen,
gangsters, etc.

------
lewis500
About 1.5 aircraft carriers or 3 bay bridge eastern span replacements. I have
various costs in my head to conceptualize how much things cost in terms of
what we could’ve bought. The last aircraft carrier the US bought cost about
$13 billion. The bay bridge eastern span cost 6.4 billion.

For smaller costs a good one is submarines: about $2.4 billion.

I did the math once and the war in Iraq directly cost about the replacement
value of the nyc subway but can’t recall the figures well.

~~~
jessriedel
I'm not sure how the military devices help understand those numbers much.
Presumably, the idea is to take something whose impact is large and
_intuitively understood_ and identify it with the price, so that other things
which are nonintuitive with similarly large prices can be understood. (My
preferred version of this is "$1M is about the life's work of a median
American", in the sense of being the median salary over a lifetime minus what
a human needs to survive. $1M is a lot of money, but I can kind of imagine
what a man can build in his life.)

But military devices seem like things whose value is very _unintuitive_. (I've
made similar criticism of people who say "oh, $6B? That's just three B2
bombers.") Obviously, we have no real conception of how complicated and
expensive such devices are to build. But more importantly, few of us have a
good grasp of the value to world stability delivered by rarely-used weapons
that play a mostly deterrent role.

~~~
lewis500
Actually military figures are fine for this expenditure because they are very
large per unit, so easy to conceptualize in small integers. It doesn’t matter
if you can think about how complicated they are to build or their deterrent
role or whatever. Point is you can imagine an aircraft carrier. This is about
as expensive as 1.5 aircraft carriers or three bay bridge replacements.

~~~
jessriedel
If you aren't bothering with an interpretation in terms of value, and are just
using the military device as a physical object you can visualize, why not just
use "stack of 10 billion dollar bills" as a unit? Then you can think of the
subway upgrade as two of those.

------
kolbe
Should we multiply that number by six to be consistent with other
infrastructure cost overruns?

[https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/05/03/letter-bay-bridge-
cos...](https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/05/03/letter-bay-bridge-cost-overrun-
same-ratio-as-bostons-big-dig/)

~~~
repsilat
Don't account for cost overruns, you only make it worse. See Hofstadter's law:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofstadter%27s_law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofstadter%27s_law)

------
acjohnson55
I can imagine a world in which basically all of Manhattan's streets are open
only to autonomous vehicles. I wonder what sorts of redesigns we would do if
all trips were effectively one-way and most cars were the size of a Smart
fortwo.

I think we're many years and a couple trillion in infrastructure retooling
from this reality. But when my infant daughter is my age, I think this is what
NYC will be like, assuming society as we know it keeps progressing, while
diffusing the many potential catastrophes we've set up for ourselves.

~~~
hawski
I think that bicycles and other human powered (also with electric assist)
vehicles or small electric vehicles like scooters are the best short term
future we can ask for. And working public transport - who cares if it's
autonomous out not. There are already places that work with these.

I find it strange that you mention Smart Fortwo, which is not particularly
small when one compares it to VW Golf for example. Toyota IQ would be better
example, it's not much bigger than Fortwo, but has four seats.

~~~
acjohnson55
It was just the smallest car I could think of. Hmm, yeah, the idea of bike and
scooter vehicles makes some sense, although you would lose the shelter from
the elements, the ability to travel without your eyes on the road, and the
ability to travel in groups. So both options are probably needed, although
right of ways will be less efficient if heavily shared by autonomous vehicles
and human-powered transport.

------
hourislate
Andy Byford failed in fixing Toronto's transit problems although I don't think
it was his fault and more likely a dysfunctional city council and an
uncompromising transit union. Hopefully, he can help NYC fix their problems.

I just got back from Tokyo. What an incredible network of trains/subways. I
know every city has its own challenges but if there are any questions, ask the
Japanese because they seem to have figured it all out. Moving 10 million
people a day in Tokyo is a testament to their know-how.

~~~
latch
There's lesson to be learned everywhere, including Tokyo. But it's hardly a
perfect system. The main trains and stations are absurdly busy (to a degree
where it won't work in the US). Signage is awful, and many station are
confusing.

If you're looking to build something at the same scale of Tokyo (in terms of
KMs of track, and daily ridership) I think you need to do better. The system
feels like it's bursting at the seams.

On a smaller scale, Taipei's subway is pretty damn impressive. Hong Kong's
octopus and airport express are still gold standards in payment and airport
link. Finally, in many way's Shanghai takes the cake, in large part because of
how it went from nothing to this massive system (largest by distance, I
believe), in a relatively short time. I believe Shanghai has roughly the same
daily ridership as Tokyo and, although it's also insane at peak hour, it's
better than the worst of the Yamanote line.

~~~
Johnny555
_There 's lesson to be learned everywhere, including Tokyo. But it's hardly a
perfect system. The main trains and stations are absurdly busy (to a degree
where it won't work in the US). Signage is awful, and many station are
confusing._

It's hard to make the case that an absurdly busy transit system is the sign of
a transit system that needs improvement. The stations can be confusing at
first (especially to a foreigner), but part of that is that the stations are
_huge_... though after a few trips it's much more navigable.

The thing that I like best about the Tokyo transit system (and Japanese
transit in general) is that it's so punctual and reliable. In the USA (SF Bay
Area) I need to take a train scheduled to reach my destination at least 30
minutes before I need to be there to account for inevitable delays. And in the
off hours, trains may only run every 30 or 60 minutes, meaning that I might be
padding my schedule up to 90 minutes to make sure I get there on time. While
in Tokyo, trains arrive almost to the second of their scheduled time.

------
meddlepal
Honestly $19B doesn't sound so bad considering in Boston we can't even build a
3 mile above ground extension to the Green Line for less than $2 Billion.

~~~
Alex3917
Given that keeping weed illegal is costing New York $2-3 billion per year,
it's really not that bad.

~~~
komali2
I'm not sure if this estimate includes police and judicial resources as well
as missed tax revenues, but it should

~~~
Alex3917
It does. The New York comptroller estimates that tax revenue alone would be
~1.3B per year. I couldn't find a good estimate on the judicial costs though.

------
ben_w
At that price… I’ve just been watching a video about Launch Loops, and a well-
costed design for one of those with existing tech costs only $2bn, which
implies it would be nearly ten times cheaper to make a 2,000km long, 80km tall
maglev train fling you all the way around the planet (wonder how hard it is to
aim for the right spot on the way down?) than to do public transport right in
what ought to be a perfect location. From what I remember when I visited,
possibly also faster.

~~~
yathern
> ought to be a perfect location

What about NYC makes it the perfect location?

~~~
ben_w
It’s a densely populated city. Lots of people using the same transport routes,
all of which are close enough in one place to where they live and to where
they work at another that the doors at each end can be pedestrian rather than
motor.

Can’t do that when the population is spread out. (Or the workplaces, but IDK
if that happens).

~~~
RandallBrown
It's a perfect location to have public transit, but it's an absolutely
terrible place to build it because you would have to disrupt so much existing
infrastructure and millions of people.

------
kbos87
If this is a problem that money can still fix its worth every penny.

------
somberi
A related read:

Andy Byford, who made a name for himself running transport systems in London,
Sydney and Toronto, is now in charge of turning around New York's Subway.

[http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-
canada-43561378](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43561378)

~~~
repolfx
Having read the article, the headline seems like exaggeration. He didn't run a
transport system in London. He was a station manager. And he was the COO in
Sydney, not the CEO.

Still - that doesn't mean he'll do a bad job. He has worked his way up and
spent his whole life working in public transport. And some fresh outside
thinking might be what the MTA needs.

~~~
tialaramex
"station manager" initially but he then ran the Kings Cross + St Pancras group
(a pair of large "terminus" stations next to each other in central London plus
a single huge underground interchange to connect them both to six different
"tube" lines).

It's not New York Subway, but it's already a large sprawling system just for
those two stations. In one way it's more complicated than the New York Subway
- St Pancras station needs immigration and customs control because it's
effectively a border with France. This is definitely a management job, taking
personal control over everything, as a station master might, just isn't
possible.

~~~
michaelhoffman
London Underground, where Byford worked, does not control the surface stations
at King's Cross and St. Pancras, so immigration and customs control wouldn't
be part of his job. Still, King's Cross St. Pancras London Underground station
alone is one of the most complex in the London Underground system, with six
lines, three ticket halls, and 95 million entries and exits per year.

~~~
tialaramex
Aha, yes I see. So that's a smaller job than I thought. Thanks.

~~~
michaelhoffman
Yes. But he had other jobs with increasing responsibility in London up to
being operations director for a passenger railway before moving to Sydney. I
think people are omitting that.

------
spikels
$19 billion for a train signaling system and 50 elevators seems outrageously
expensive.

There are less than 1,000 trains in the entire system and their movements are
highly constrained. A WiFi based system could both easily communicate with and
locate (WPS) each train. Modeling the entire system in real-time seems doable.
Lastly there would need a UI for the driver (or eliminate the driver
completely) and various hardware interconnections.

The core of the system would appear to be a WiFi network, servers, tables and
custom interconnects to train controls, trip stops, switches, etc. Sure it has
to be incredibly reliable but $19 billion?!

Seems like a great business opportunity.

~~~
cryptonector
I don't know why you got downvoted.

I've toyed with the idea of doing a popular subway improvement project where
we'd make battery-powered devices (arduino, rpi, whatever -- the biggest cost
irl would be labor) to plant on subway cars and stations for tracking trains.
A proof of concept could be done with just a few tens of such devices. They'd
use the subway wifi to transmit train locations.

Of course, there are complications. There's no such thing as a head train car
-- these things get mixed and matched. So ensuring that every train has such a
device might mean ensuring that every car has one or that every train gets a
car that has one, and this seems difficult. But even so, this could cost just
in the millions done right.

~~~
stephen_g
Obviously the price tag for the NY system is crazy, but honestly so is what
you guys are proposing... It's almost completely impossible to certify a
safety critical system with WiFi and Arduino/RPi. This kind of engineering is
a whole different ball game, and for good reason (train crashes and
derailments are really not pretty).

For an informational system (i.e. telling passengers how long trains are away
or for statistics gathering), sure. You could absolutely do that like you say.
But as soon as it involves controlling the train or anything to do with
signalling, it just can't be done like that.

------
wokky
Will the new signals work when all the track is underwater, I wonder.

------
stephencoyner
A self driving car can't beat the subway, spend the money NYC.

------
exabrial
Fta: Signal system? In 2018 why is the conductor doing anything but pressing a
"leave station" button? Who is driving the requirements for this?

~~~
hak8or
MTA union, it's an extremely powerful union. The L line for example is set up
to be fully automated, but they are still required to have staff for the
train.

~~~
untog
The unions aren't the main reason, it's that the signal system in the NYC
subway is decades old and won't allow automated trains. It needs to be
upgraded, but that costs money that so far no one has been willing to spend.

From what I understand, the L train is one of few that has the necessary
upgrades, primarily because it doesn't really intersect with other lines,
which makes it a lot easier to deploy. If I recall, the L functions with only
one conductor when the other lines use two. I agree that the union could be
more progressive and embrace change... but the big problem is money, and
consequently, state politics.

~~~
InitialLastName
The L would function with no conductors, but it requires two per train to
press a "keep the union happy" button every 30 seconds.

------
sjg007
Hopefully they do the job right. My problem with construction is that everyone
takes short cuts except where things are inspected (and even then...).

------
rossdavidh
How much would it cost to pay a bunch of New Yorkers to move to small towns in
the midwest where it's not so crowded? Kidding, I'm kidding.

------
rdlecler1
To put this into perspective this is about $2k/New Yorker. Not bad if you
think about the cost of car ownership.

------
nerpderp83
That is a pretty good deal.

------
tekmaven
It’s time for the MTA to release an ICO.

~~~
flukus
Jokes aside, the ability to buy rides with the currency would give it more
real world value than most.

------
dyukqu
_Just_ the same price with a few-megabytes mobile messaging app. I wonder, how
much does the app weigh...

