
Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at risk - neversaydie
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51540981
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masayoshis_son
The conclusions are of little informational value as the same is going to
apply to practically any pathogen-borne disease (unless a vast group of the
elderly had the chance to acquire prior immunity, as is the case with some
strains of flu being similar to those from the past, in which case younger
people are at a relative disadvantage).

What is more important to realize about the virus is that (1) a death rate of
2% (20 times that of flu) would still be considerable given its relatively
high infectivity rate and long incubation period, and that (2) the fact that
20% of the cases require hospitalization would put a significant strain on
even the best healthcare systems should it become widespread.

Separately, any data-based inferences are only as good as the underlying data,
and there have been some doubts as to the completeness and veracity of data
available. Even the WHO chief has effectively spoken to that effect.

~~~
irq11
What is more important to realize is that the parameters you’re citing haven’t
been borne out outside of Hubei, and that everywhere else it has emerged, it’s
been...about as bad as the flu. You’re also citing numbers that every
_credible expert_ says are systematically inflated.

The death rate in China is very likely exaggerated, because (as you say) the
hospitals are overwhelmed with panicked locals (which tends to happen when you
turn a city the size of New York into a police state!) leading to systematic
under-reporting of minor cases. Anthony Faucci of NIAID was quoted in the
Washington Post a day or two ago, saying that the death rate will likely drop
to/below 1%:

 _” experts have said the coronavirus fatality rate is likely to decline
substantially as they compile a more accurate count of the people who contract
the virus and survive. At the Aspen Institute presentation, Anthony S. Fauci,
director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said he
hoped the rate could decline toward 1 percent.”_

Also from that article:

 _“The fact that there are so many mild cases is a real hallmark of this
disease and makes it so different from SARS,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, an
epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health’s Center
for Health Security. “It’s also really challenging. Most of our surveillance
is oriented around finding people who require medical intervention.”_

 _” For those who study viruses, the large number of mild cases is reason for
optimism. “This looks to be a bad, heightened cold — I think that’s a rational
way of thinking about it,” said Matthew Frieman, a virologist at the
University of Maryland School of Medicine. “Not to diminish its importance —
it’s in the middle between SARS and the common cold.”_

 _” Many experts have said early phases of outbreaks like this one tend to
have a large number of severe cases, as the sickest people flock to hospitals
and come to doctors’ attention. And in Wuhan, where the health-care system is
overwhelmed, people have complained they cannot find a hospital to test them
for the virus, let alone to treat their symptoms. So patients with milder
versions may be at home, uncounted, waiting out the epidemic.”_

[https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/most-coronavirus-
cases...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/most-coronavirus-cases-are-
mild-complicating-efforts-to-respond/2020/02/12/213603a4-4dc2-11ea-
bf44-f5043eb3918a_story.html)

Again and again, experts keep saying the same thing: the danger of this virus
is being exaggerated. But folks like you continue to spread these exaggerated
numbers, leading to panic and overreaction:

 _” Health experts question the timeliness and accuracy of China’s official
data, saying the testing system captured only a fraction of the cases in
China’s hospitals, particularly those that are poorly run.

Neil Ferguson, a professor of epidemiology at Imperial College London, said
only the most severe infections were being diagnosed and as few as 10 per cent
of cases were being properly detected, in a video released by the
university.”_

[https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/bb73bd9c-4d9...](https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/bb73bd9c-4d92-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5)

~~~
blywi
You are probably right that the numbers out of Hubei province are inflated and
less severe cases are underrepresented. Unfortunately, according to some
experts, the case fatality rate of ~2% seems to hold even for cases outside of
China.

Statistical modeling of the case fatality rate using only cases and deaths
reported from outside China was done by Christian L. Althaus (Institute of
Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern), this estimates the CFR
for COVID-19 at 2.1% although with a high uncertainty (95% confidence
interval: 0.5%-5.4%). Data and R code for his modeling are available on
Github: [https://github.com/calthaus/ncov-
cfr](https://github.com/calthaus/ncov-cfr)

A comment from Adam Kucharski (Associate Professor, London School of Hygiene &
Tropical Medicine) on Twitter:
[https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/122970801348691148...](https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1229708013486911488)

 _"... The upshot: the widely quoted 2% fatality for China is calculated
incorrectly, because it's based on data that is under-reported and doesn't
account for delays. But, confusingly, these errors may actually cancel out,
leading to an estimate that is right for the wrong reasons ..."_

~~~
irq11
You’re citing a cherry-picked study that supports your preconceptions.

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gshdg
Although this seems intuitive, it’s not true for all epidemics.

The 1918 flu disproportionately killed healthy young adults. Why? Their immune
systems reacted more strongly to the flu. But the immune reaction (fever and
phlegm) was so strong that it ultimately ended up killing the patients before
the pathogens.

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Ruhrbaron
What a revelation - who would have guessed.

~~~
martin_a
Pretty much what I thought. I think any illness is more dangerous to elderly
and sick people. What's the news here?

~~~
E14n
This was not the case with the Spanish flu, which disproportionately effected
young adults[1].

1\.
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3734171/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3734171/)

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subaru_shoe
Is this such a shock?

