
Over 2,000 Italian health workers infected - pmoriarty
http://www.ansa.it/english/news/general_news/2020/03/16/over-2000-health-workers-infected_97a0363f-e2e8-478a-be26-bc08d4d2983b.html
======
neals
I'm infected. As are many more than any official number out there. I infected
my SO, of course. She's having a worse time than me, with a nasty cough that
goes right through my soul.

We haven't bothered with getting tested since we'll probably be OK and can sit
this one out from home.

I'm a healthy 34 year male without any further conditions. I couldn't find
anything about the duration or livecycle of the disease so for those
wondering: For me, it started as getting a regular 'flu'. A tingle down my
spine, a little light headed, a little hotter. No actual fever. No coughing
(for me). No sneezing. And now, day 5, my lungs are acting up. Difficulty
breathing. Feeling like I've just ran up the stairs. Last night I woke up out
of breath with light pain in my chest.

There are so little accounts of people describing how bad it is going to get
or how long it is going to take... I wish more people would share.

I can, however still do remote development work. Besides the breathing issues,
my head is clear and sitting still (and typing) is the only thing I feel like
doing. Really.

[Edit] thanks everybody for your concern. These are scary times for everybody.
Our country policy is "sit it out unless you have fever". I don't have a fever
but can assure you I'm taking my temperature hourly and will check myself in
when it hits 38°C.

~~~
notahacker
Similar here (also untested because my government has a policy of not testing
non-hospitalised cases, but none of the symptoms [or absence of symptoms]
feels like other respiratory infections I've had before)

Symptoms somewhat similar to yours; I'm also the same age. No proper fever
[some of my sleep is the slightly fitful sleep I'd associate with fighting off
mild infections, but my temperature is normal or very close], I've coughed
only a literal handful of times and not painfully, so clearly sufficiently
mild to miss those characteristic responses, no headache and only occasional
feelings of fatigue and a bit more sleep than usual. Just inflamed lungs which
are more uncomfortable than painful. Back when I felt completely healthy last
Wednesday and went for a 3k outdoor run (no more uncomfortable or slower than
I'd have expected considering I haven't run much this year) I obviously felt
like I was breathing a bit too shallowly and breathing deoxygenated air. This
is basically that same feeling coming back the following day, except with a
normal breathing rate [and heart rate]. I can still take a deeper breath
whenever I want and I'm far from worrying I'm about to run out of oxygen, but
just feels uncomfortable and I can imagine how it can cause much more serious
problems for people with more severe symptoms, pre-existing lung conditions or
immune system issues. It's been steady for most of this period.

I appear to be one of the lucky ones. Expect to make a full recovery, able to
work from home and if the run helped accelerate symptoms showing then I'm
quite glad it saved me from passing it on to other people.

~~~
neals
Thanks for sharing. May I ask what day you are on?

~~~
notahacker
Uncertain. Four days have elapsed since I first showed symptoms, but unclear
how long I had it before then since it normally has a long incubation period
and I doubt I actually _caught_ it whilst running round a park in the evening
on Weds which was the only time I crossed the threshold that day

Best guess is I caught it last Monday (train ride through London). Would
prefer that to earlier since I was travelling back from seeing my parents and
my brother's young family in a lower risk area then...

Also possible I caught it from a coworker the previous week when actually in
the office: she is self isolating but exhibiting very different symptoms.

------
simonsarris
The data is so strange. Malaysia has had an outbreak since well before Italy,
with zero deaths so far. Vietnam and Thailand are similar. I'm beginning to
suspect that sunshine/vitamin D is a good proxy for how hard-hit different
regions are and the huge discrepancy. It's an awfully optimistic theory, since
it suggests things will start to get better in the northern hemisphere
regardless of intervention and since everyone can individually supplement with
Vitamin D immediately.

Some data collected here, I welcome any additions or good counterexamples, but
we won't have much more for a few weeks when we can better observe countries
that are "behind" Italy, like Spain:
[https://simonsarris.com/sunlight](https://simonsarris.com/sunlight)

~~~
gambler
Is Italian population deficient in vitamin D compared to those other countries
you mentioned?

~~~
simonsarris
Did you look at the sunshine data? Bergamo has low sunshine in Feb and March
comparatively.

Places hard hit:

* Wuhan: 100 (In Feb)

* Paris: 79-129 (Feb-March, North France harder it by # of cases, cannot find death info)

* Bergamo Italy: 100-150 (Feb-March average)

* Seattle WA: 100-150 (Feb-March)

* Iran sunshine varies a lot by locale. But some places like Rasht, its _very_ low light: 90, 78, 71, 113 for Jan, Feb, Mar, April

Places less hard hit:

* Bangkok 250-275 (Feb-March)

* Kuala Lumpur 185, 192, 208 (Jan Feb March)

* Ho Chi Minh City, 272 (March)

* Seoul: 175-200 (Feb-March) South Korea contained it of course, but their lethality numbers are also lower, and its the lethality that I find odd in all this.

~~~
haunter
Following this pattern we should see similar numbers all over Europe, heck
significantly more in the nordic countries but that's not the case.

~~~
gambler
_heck significantly more in the nordic countries_

I think some of them instituted programs to fix vitamin D deficiency a while
ago:

[https://www.nutraingredients.com/Article/2015/05/28/Sweden-t...](https://www.nutraingredients.com/Article/2015/05/28/Sweden-
to-expand-mandatory-vitamin-D-fortification)

Damn, one would think in our data-crazy world stats like vitamin D deficiency
by country would be one search away. But in reality, it's pretty hard to find
and even harder to verify.

------
jansan
And currently there are about 20 new infections per day in all of China. How
is this even plausible? What are we doing totally wrong in Europe that China
has done right? Or is there something fundamentally wrong with the numbers?

~~~
theseadroid
Sorry for me spamming this but this is extraordinary times:

For people who are curious what living in China feels like now (video uploaded
Mar 14th), from a Japanese director living in Nanjing, China:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM)

Things are getting back to normal, with tons of precautions.

There are a few other youtube channels run by westerners vlogging on the
current situation in China. e.g.
[https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1XG7bJnYqta_ezr12WZp7w](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1XG7bJnYqta_ezr12WZp7w)

Also, from someone lived in Wuhan: [https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/more-
likely-to-get-sick-i...](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/more-likely-to-
get-sick-in-dublin-than-wuhan-says-teacher-ben-kavanagh-pxsvpdt8z)

~~~
enitihas
I will recommend everyone to watch the Nanjing video. That is an insane amount
of precautions. Keep in mind that it is about Nanjing, which was nowhere near
Wuhan numbers. Some examples:

1\. Every place is taking temperature of people. Every place

2\. You have to register your presence everywhere. Boarding the metro train
you have to scan a QR

3\. Takeout is totally touchless, and contains the names of the employees
involved in making it.

4\. Cabs have a plastic seal between driver and passenger sides.

5\. Restaurants have physical barriers between seats, so even if you go
together with someone, you can't eat the food while looking at each other.

There are just some examples, the video shows many more.

To top it all, everyone is wearing masks. Everyone.

~~~
chippy
Just to update as this changes from day to day as things get relaxed (in
Nanjing)

> 1\. Every place is taking temperature of people. Every place

Not every places anymore. Most shops, supermarkets or malls no longer have
dedicated temperature staff. However entrances to living areas
(neighbourhoods) and official infrastructure would have

> 2\. You have to register your presence everywhere. Boarding the metro train
> you have to scan a QR

Not everywhere, like shops etc. However some cafes and restaurants required
you to scan in to let you sit down. Additionally the app checked your face
with your ID so you cant just share your qr code.

> Takeout is touchless

Also deliveries to your door are not back yet. Deliveries get dropped in a
designated area where you go to pick them up.

> 4\. Cabs have a plastic seal between driver and passenger sides.

However their version of "Uber" has no seals and is normal.

> 5\. Restaurants have physical barriers between seats, so even if you go
> together with someone, you can't eat the food while looking at each other.

No longer the case as a rule. Most restaurants are not open for seating it
seems currently, but those that do you can sit next to or opposite people now.
However originally it was one person per seat when they first re-opened.

Rules are being relaxed daily. In Nanjing there hasnt been a case of the virus
for 2 weeks.

~~~
harmmonica
This may seem redundant, but can you confirm that the video from the Japanese
resident of Nanjing is a fairly accurate representation of what it was like in
Nanjing before the restrictions were loosened? Also, you didn't say it, but I
assume you actually _live_ in Nanjing currently?

I have read countless comments online asking how can it be possible for
China's case numbers to be nearly non-existent at this point and the Nanjing
video paints the picture completely for me, an average American.

Another comment in this thread talks about symptoms and what it's like
actually having the virus.

If a series of videos existed that showed a) what it's like having the disease
(I haven't seen any videos showing that but the top comment on this thread as
of now is a good first-person explanation of a "mild" case) and b) the
lockdown response necessary to keep the numbers down or eliminate them
altogether I feel like more people would be able to take this seriously here.

Of course I also watch that Nanjing video and realize that I don't see how
it's possible that Americans would ever go for such extreme measures, which
makes one think that the UK "let them get sick to get herd immunity" starts to
make more sense.

~~~
theseadroid
Plz keep in mind that with all those measures employed in China, we don't know
exactly which ones are effective and how effective they are. Also S.K. Taiwan,
and Singapore has a different set of measures that seems to work. What I
wanted from posting that video is to show the virus is containable once
everyone is onboard.

And as a Chinese I know everyone is onboard on day 1. Tons of volunteers. Tons
of volunteering health workers from day 1. The people keep temperature
readings from many communities and neighbourhoods are volunteers. Many elderly
volunteered to do that. Everyone is onboard to contain the virus on day 1 by
themselves, not forced. Ask any Chinese you know, I guarantee you no one
thinks it's just a flu. I would bet that people from S.K. Taiwan, Hong Kong,
Singapore all share the same attitude.

In startup world we say people would achieve wonders once the vision is clear
and everyone is onboard. It's the same with this pandemic.

------
turingbook
Sad. This number has exceeded China's.

~~~
justicezyx
And it's after what had happened in China.

I just hope other countries do not repeat what happens here, and be more
decisive in their measures.

------
gambler
My question is, why all the numbers look so different in Italy and South
Korea? The countries are roughly the same size. They both have modern,
socialized medical systems AFAIK. But the stats are completely different.
We're not talking about percentages. We're talking about order of magnitude
difference in everything, including relative stats.

Is this difference due to some property of population (e.g. average age,
smoking rates) or the response?

~~~
bugzz
I've also been thinking about this. From what I can tell, a big part of it is
the most of South Korea's cases so far were skewed young and female (both
demographics less likely to die). Stats for ages in SK cases here:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019%E2%80%9320_coron...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic_data/South_Korea_medical_cases)

Additionally, it seems SK has picked up cases much earlier in their
progression than Italy (and most other countries except perhaps Singapore).
This means we'll likely see more deaths as those cases resolve (and
deaths/cases in SK has been increasing, was 0.6% a week ago, now 0.9%).

Another factor is it seems SK picked up a majority of their cases, mild and
serious, due to extensive testing, while Italy has likely not detected many
mild cases.

Finally, death rates are much higher in places where health systems are
overwhelmed, such as northern Italy.

------
nostromo
Does every article about a canceled event, or some new infections need to be
posted?

[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html)

> If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-topic.

~~~
TeMPOraL
Historically, in practice, this guideline never applied to events that
directly threaten livelihoods _and_ lives of many of us and our families.

------
glouwbug
That's more than North America has tested for infected. How fucked is North
America then? Italy is skinny as hell. The states suffers from an obesity
epidemic.

~~~
imownbey
The US has tested more than 2k people each day since March 8th. This is just
wrong and misinformation at a time like this is really really dangerous.
[https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-
updates/test...](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-
updates/testing-in-us.html)

~~~
glouwbug
My bad if I wasn't clear - I meant daily. My point is America's obesity rate
will just make things worse than what we are seeing in Italy.

