
Countries Where Windows Phone Outsells The iPhone - w1ntermute
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonkelly/2014/01/21/here-are-24-countries-where-windows-phone-outsells-the-iphone-and-why-it-does/
======
r0h1n
How long are Microsoft, and those who write about it, going to continue with
the delusion that Windows Phone's competition is Apple and iOS, instead of
Google and Android?

I had spoken to Horace Dediu of Asymco in December for a story on what options
Microsoft and Nokia had before them, and here are some of the relevant parts
he told me (the article itself doesn't seem to have been put online at Forbes
India, who I used to write for but no longer do):

>> Coming to the present, the biggest problem that Microsoft and Nokia will
face is that of timing. Specifically, at what stage are we when it comes to
global penetration of smartphones?

>> Today now that the market is over 1 billion users and going to very rapidly
saturate, the challenge for Microsoft is their assumption of wanting to keep
on trying hoping to succeed one day. It's hard to believe that after so many
tries and so much saturation, they can succeed. Worse, their strategies are
symmetric, meaning they compete against an Apple or an Android by claiming
their Lumia devices are better.

>> If Microsoft and Nokia can pivot and become a low-end competitor then there
may be an opportunity still available in emerging markets. But instead they’re
pouring tremendous resources into the US and Europe saying Lumia is better.
That will fail. _The door for Windows Phone is closing not because of Apple
and iOS but because of Google and Android._ Nokia, the bulk of whose phome
portfolio was in the mid-market, was defeated by Android. I could argue, with
difficulty, that they can still get into the late stage market but I haven’t
seen a message from them indicating that. They simply aren't humble enough to
see that market as their core, but still see their platform as superior to all
others.

~~~
tsurantino
This is likely to be contentious, but doesn't this effectively say that these
phones are basically substitutable products?

Are there not dimensions beyond price and volume still left to tap into the
smartphone market?

~~~
steven2012
If you've had an iPhone for 3 generations like me, there's no way you would
switch to another vendor, simply because of all of the apps that you've paid
for. If there were some way to get the Android version of an app if you bought
the iPhone version, that might make it a lot easier to switch, but without
that, I can't be bothered with spending money trying to recreate the same
environment I currently have.

~~~
nemtaro
I'm not convinced. While most people might have spent enough money on their
iOS apps to feel this way, I doubt that buying the same apps (if their free
alternatives don't exist) on Android would rack up more than a few tens of
dollars.

There are things that iPhone and Apple products still do better than their
Android counterparts. For example, you still can't do screen mirroring from
your android device to a Chromecast. Meanwhile, AppleTV works like a charm.

But, when it comes to SmartPhones independently, I'm of the opinion that
marketing is the only thing keeping iPhone alive. The list of things you get
for free with Android that you can't get with the iPhone even if you paid for
them are growing longer and longer... Off the top of my head, here are things
I've heard from friends who recently switched:

Woa, how did I ever go without Widgets!

Swyping is supported by default, _and_ I can change the default keyboard?!

I can charge my phone with any USB cable, _and_ upgrade my battery?!

You don't _have_ to use iTunes for everything?! ...

~~~
lostlogin
People use iTunes? Genuine question - what for? I live in an all Apple world,
work, home, friends (mostly) and family (mostly). I'm not sure any of them use
iTunes. With the exception of having to dump video into it to find it on the
AppleTV, I never use it. It is awful.

~~~
nemtaro
Don't you have to use the "iTunes store" to install apps on iDevices remotely?

Also, as an example use case, how else do you put music on your iDevices? I'm
under the impression that you have to use iTunes.

~~~
lostlogin
Music is via Spotify, or, rarely, via the music app which has content in the
cloud. Spotify stores my music locally. The App Store doesn't have iTunes in
its name on iOS devices (as far as I can see). If I wanted music on my device
via the music app, I'd buy it from the store. However if I owned a CD (not
sure how this would happen, binned them all ages ago) I would have to stick it
in a Mac (not mine, it hasn't got a drive), rip it, put them on a memory
stick, get it to my Mac, dump them in iTunes (argh), then wait for cloud sync.

------
girvo
Look. I don't hate Windows Phone, my girlfriend has the HTC 8X and adores it.
With the latest set of big apps ported (like Instagram and Snapchat), it's
quite nice. The interface is good, and fast on modest hardware. The browser is
pretty meh. PIM functionality is good, as you'd expect from Windows Mobiles
pedigree.

But comparing an entire ecosystem of phones (with one of the biggest sellers
being the $100 Nokia 520) with iPhones limited range, is silly. Try again when
Apple release a true current gen budget smartphone perhaps. I've never
understood why we as consumers care about this stuff -- they're businesses for
christs sake, and they make billions of dollars of us. Why do we care if one
big business does better than their competitors? Why do we defend them? :/

~~~
cheald
Because as developers, you don't develop for a specific piece of mobile
hardware, you develop for an OS.

If Windows Phone is gaining ground in markets you care about, you'd best care
about it, regardless of the specific hardware being talked about. We're
comparing ecosystems here, not hardware. We can compare "Windows Phone Phones
vs iOS phones" if that makes you feel more comfortable.

~~~
girvo
Hey, yeah I agree with you that as developers it matters. Sorry, my post was
influenced by another discussion recently about this topic; I was looking at
it from a consumer perspective.

Now there are some arguments to be made as to why consumers would care as
well, but in my experience those arguments might hold true for people like us
on HN but not for your average commenter on The Verge (for example).

~~~
cheald
Well, it matters for consumers too - ecosystem familiarity and lock-in is a
big deal. If I buy a bunch of apps in one ecosystem, I have a sunk cost that's
going to keep me in that ecosystem. Another ecosystem gaining dominance might
mean any number of things as to how I use the device.

Consider, for example, if Chile becomes dominated by the Windows Phone. All
your good useful local apps - your local versions of Yelps, Zagats,
OpenTables, etc - are going to go Windows Phone first. The services that
matter most in the community you're in are going to go where the marketshare
is - and as an iPhone user, you might be left waiting to catch up.

------
kumarm
>> Italy and Finland aside, Windows Phone is primarily growing is poorer
nations where the iPhone is prohibitively expensive

The markets that Windows outsell iPhone are the markets where iPhone has less
than 10% market share and where people need cheaper phones. These are not the
markets that are attractive to developers (Revenue/user is much lower than
developed countries) and hence Windows will not see developer mindshare in
near future.

Notice other than Nokia Home base (Finland), Windows does not outsell Android
anywhere else.

~~~
kenjackson
WinPhone mindshare already has grown drastically. There are certainly app
gaps, but it closing fast. And before I'd ask companies if they had a win
phone app coming they'd say, "what?". Now it is almost always part of the
roadmap.

~~~
eclipxe
Citation needed

~~~
sliverstorm
It's clearly intended as anecdotal evidence. Citation request: WONTFIX

------
Steko
Trivia really. Apple and WP both sell smartphones but they don't really
compete against each other. Sure Nokia trots out a high end phone every 6
months or what have you but the sales on those models aren't moving the dial
on market share. The people who are in Apple's market ($400+ smartphones)
either buy an iPhone or a high end Android phone. The people buying 95% of
these WP's (510 is $150 unlocked, 520 is $200) are choosing between WP and low
end Android phones.

The author tries to anticipate this with:

"As such, it is possible for cynics to argue Windows Phone is gaining in
markets where the iPhone doesn’t compete and making little headway where it
does. Except this isn’t true either.

Windows Phone Is Fast Becoming A Hit In Europe"

But this is also bollocks. There are people everywhere that buy $200 phones,
it might be only 20% in the US and 30% in Europe (where many countries don't
use subsidies) instead of the 80%+ you might see in Mexico or Thailand but
that doesn't mean these people are choosing WP's over iPhones.

~~~
soperj
Sure it does. They're just choosing the WPs based on price.

~~~
Steko
Seems dodgy. Sure you could say that most people who buy Kia Optimas are
choosing them over a Mercedes on price but it honestly doesn't occur to most
of those people that a Benz is an option for them because it isn't. And anyone
saying Mercedes is losing market share to Kia would be laughed out of the
room.

------
hawkharris
I'm working on a project for a large company that recently made Windows Phone
8 its corporate standard.

I have to say that I've been impressed with the phone since I started using
one for development. The display, camera and interfaces feel smooth and fun to
use.

It's easy to bash Microsoft and dismiss its products altogether, but it's
important to give them a shot, if only to avoid the mistake of limiting
ourselves to the Apple / Google technology that is most prevalent.

~~~
melling
Why? We've pretty much limited ourselves to Apple and Microsoft on the desktop
for almost 2 decades. In fact, it has been pretty much limited to Microsoft.
They still have about 90% desktop market share, and almost 100% of the
corporate desktop.

Microsoft illegally killed off most desktop competition when they forced
hardware vendors to pay for DOS on every PC they shipped, regardless of which
OS they shipped.

Personally, I think we're better off with Google taking the place of Microsoft
in the mobile space.

~~~
hawkharris
If you were a professional filmmaker, would you only watch movies made by
Steven Spielberg and Michael Bay? If you were a chef, would you refuse to eat
anything but lobster and filet mignon?

Apple and Google are the lobsters and the Steven Spielbergs of the technology
world, so to speak: they're highly respected, rich and popular. In a way,
there's nothing wrong with that: I use a Macbook, Gmail, etc., because I think
they're very well made.

My argument isn't that the software industry should jump into bed with
Microsoft; I'm saying that trying technologies like the Windows Phone is vital
to our professional development as software engineers.

If you consider yourself a creator in any given field, you can't keep up
without at least dabbling with different and sometimes lesser appreciated
products. New ideas often emerge when we deviate from standard tools and
practices.

~~~
melling
Yes, I agree and I completely understand. It would have been great if BeOS and
OS/2 survived, for example. Unfortunately, Microsoft killed off all
competition. Now we're stuck in a world where 90% of the world runs
Microsoft's operating system, and there's very little innovation. I'm all for
looking at Microsoft's ideas. I just feel safer with Google on 80% of the
world's phones. It'll add balance have another major player.

------
Zigurd
Most of the reason behind this grab-bag list of places Windows Phone has some
market share is that Nokia previously dominated sales in most of these places.
Nokia used to be "tier zero" of the handset business, in a class by itself,
and with a distribution network that reached where nobody else went.

It is a too-easy prediction that these numbers won't hold up as both upper-
tier Android OEMs and deep-discount Chinese OEMs invade every remaining corner
of the global handset market.

~~~
ZeroGravitas
This is the real reason behind these numbers, Nokia's brand and distribution
network.

Interestingly, Microsoft hasn't bought the Nokia brand for smart phones so
once the sale goes through all new phones will no longer be branded Nokia. And
after as short period of time Nokia will be able to licence the name to some
unpronouncable-to-westerners company from China and Nokia Androids will be on
the market to compete with Microsoft Lumias.

I'd love to know if Microsoft bought the distribution network. I don't know if
it's technically part of Nokia or just a network of partner companies.

~~~
Zigurd
Microsoft owns all of Nokia's handset assets now, and has the brand license
for a remarkably short time, as you point out. Nokia will continue to use
their brand for their infrastructure business as well as maps and other online
services.

Microsoft does own Nokia's distribution network, and even the factories that
make Series 30 handsets, and all the other odd stuff. Another headache for the
next Microsoft CEO.

My bet is that Nokia will get back in to the handset business, and possibly
other consumer electronics, once their non-competition agreement expires.
Nokia owns some of Jolla, and most of Jolla's employees are formerly Nokia
people. I think Jolla already uses Nokia's maps and media ecosystems.

------
sdegutis
Semi-related: As an Apple fan for the past few years, I have to say, I'm
really starting to like where Microsoft is heading. At least in terms of UI
and UX.

~~~
300bps
After three iPhones (3G, 4 and 4s), my Lumia 928 is the best phone I've ever
had.

~~~
sdegutis
Thanks for sharing. I'm getting tired of my iPhone's problems, so I'll
probably be in the market when my contract expires. I'll look into that one.

~~~
ps4fanboy
ios7 was the last straw for me

~~~
sdegutis
I actually really liked iOS 7 compared to iOS 6. But it's still not enough to
salvage the OS for me.

------
GigabyteCoin
Didn't Apple take a more gentrified approach to their sales?

I was under the impression that Apple didn't bother to market to any of the
markets listed in that article because they aren't THE LARGEST AND RICHEST
MARKETS IN THE WORLD.

It took them over 3 years to release ANY version of an iphone in finland (one
of the listed nations in the article):
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_iPhone#European_...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_iPhone#European_release)

U.S.A. Release: June 28, 2007

Finland Release: September 30, 2010

It took them over a year to get to Greece, etc...

People buy what's available and then stick to what they know, generally.

I am not surprised by the findings of this article.

~~~
pavlov
_It took them over 3 years to release ANY version of an iphone in finland (one
of the listed nations in the
article):[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_iPhone#European_...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_iPhone#European_..).
_

You're reading the Wikipedia article wrong. The iPhone was released in Finland
in 2008 when the 3G model came out, and that's stated in the article as well.

The primary reason for not releasing the original iPhone in European markets
was the lack of 3G. A 2G-only smartphone would have been a hard sell in
European markets back in 2007-08 when 3G was already widely deployed and used.

------
dschiptsov
Such a fucking paid nonsense. I an in India right now. It is Samsung and
iPhone country. It was Nokia _Symbian_ country before Samsung and Android era,
and you would never see a Lumina phone outside a shop window. Low level Nokia
Asha phones are selling well, but they are S40.

~~~
CGudapati
I am also in India and I have to say that while Lumias are not everywhere,
they definitely have a decent market share. and iPhone country? I don't think
so.

------
outside1234
I was in Vietnam last year and it was like being in this bizarro world where
Microsoft dominated mobile.

~~~
snorrish
I live in Vietnam. Windows phone is certainly popular here, but I believe
(relying on my own biased observations) that iPhone is vastly more popular.
While iPhones are sold by official vendors, it's far more popular to buy "hand
carry" phones that are imported by individuals. Of the ~10 people I know with
iPhones, all are hand carried. They are cheaper than the official vendors (and
not recognized in the IDC report).

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Gray market imports are probably distorting numbers in the other countries as
well.

~~~
wila
Which makes me wonder where all those sold windows phones are. Android and
iPhone is what I see around here in Bangkok.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Nokia has better low end distribution channels. I would assume all those
Windows Phones are in the rest of Thailand.

------
j_s
Is this an opportunity for app devs where the app store isn't as crowded so a
quality app can really shine?

~~~
quaffapint
It's not 'as crowded', but it's actually grown quite a lot recently with
decent app alternatives, so there's not as much available as there used to be,
but it's still better in terms of app vs phone quantity.

------
dexen
Re: Poland, it seems to me Windows Phone's relative success is thanks to the
Nokia brand, and also to iPhone being considered overpriced upmarket gadget
and/or hipster symbol.

Nokia has long enjoyed very good opinion and popularity in Poland -- as _the_
go-to vendor, thanks to decently-priced, user-friendly and rugged phones. The
second-hand market is huge, spare parts and accessories abound and experienced
repair shops common.

Having said that, a few of my friends have gotten Windows Phone and all of
them were disappointed, most of them returned them back in exchange for
anything Android. Common complain was OS being disappointing for daily use,
and app selection was lacking.

tl;dr

In Poland Windows Phone may outsell iPhones, but it still remains niche -- and
you should also subtract frequent returns to get actual user base.

------
10feet
Australia is interesting, where Android actually fell 5.5%, and both iPhone
and Windows gained. Even BB gained in Australia. Every other country has
Android gaining. With so much competition in Android space, there are some
great offers available.

~~~
apapli
What numbers are you referring to? Curious, I live in AU too and all I am
observing is the rise of android against a stagnant MS and dwindling iPhone
and BB market shares..

~~~
sien
It's in the data in the article.

------
cft
This is good news for HTML5 webapps developers. Are there any on HN?

~~~
thekingshorses
IE browser on the wp8 is good, but wp8 as a platform sucks. So many features
are not supported or has issues when rendering HTML5 app on wp8 platform.

My HN mobile client works fine on WP8/IE, but so many hacks required to work
as an HTML5 WP8 app.

------
adamnemecek
"Czech Republic Finland" is my favorite country.

------
Pelayo
Here in Chile, I'm not sure where those phones are. You see iPhone and Android
everywhere.

My best guess would be people upgrading from a feature phone to a smartphone
for the first time. They might buy a really low end Windows phone because of
Nokia (they dominated the market for ages) but I have never seen a high end
one here in the wild.

------
blueskin_
Finland can likely be explained exclusively by Nokia. Interesting to see what
happens now they are to all intents and purposes a part of MS.

Shame really, back in the pre-smartphone days I always had a Nokia as they
made the best hardware by far. Nokia phones with CyanogenMod would have been a
perfect combination.

------
CmonDev
"accounts for 93.2 percent of all Windows Phone handset sales highlighting
little traction or interest from companies where Microsoft does not have
control" \- more like companies incapable of building something better then
current Nokia products.

------
mousefad
There was me expecting a map... If you want something doing right...
[http://i.imgur.com/HqLIJ3q.png](http://i.imgur.com/HqLIJ3q.png)

------
abe_duarte
I find it hard to believe that Microsoft is outselling iPhone in Colombia.
Even if that was the case iPhone is vastly more popular.

