
The First Eclipse Prediction: Act of Genius, Brilliant Mistake, or Dumb Luck? - diodorus
http://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/thales-predicts-eclipse-mystery-ancient-greece
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celticninja
Reminds me of one of my favourite Tintin books, where he saves himself and his
companions from being burnt on a pyre by Incas when he uses an eclipse to make
them believe he can control the sun.

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoners_of_the_Sun](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoners_of_the_Sun)

~~~
tzs
I wonder if that would actually fool anyone?

I would expect that the Incas, and most other reasonably sophisticated
cultures from that era all the way back to ancient times would know what
eclipses actually are.

They were good observers of astronomical events. They would know that the Moon
passed near the Sun once a month. They would know that how close that pass was
varied month to month. They would know that eclipses only happen when the Moon
is close to the Sun. They would see that the shape that the Sun disappears in
as an eclipse progresses is circular and about the size of the Moon. All of
this should tip them off to eclipses simply being the Moon passing in front of
the Sun.

Furthermore, even if the motions of the Sun and Moon were too complicated for
them to handle well enough to make accurate predictions, they would know that
the reason they are too complicated is that they are made up of many different
simple motions happening together. In other words, they would know that the
motions are predictable in principle, and it is just that their mathematics is
not sophisticated enough to handle the complexity.

On top of that, as a particular eclipse approaches most of the components of
the Moons motion because less and less relevant. They should be able to see
days before that this time the Moon is not going to miss the Sun.

Thus, I would expect the conclusion from an outsider predicting an eclipse to
not be that he controls the Sun, but rather either "so what?" if the
prediction is less than a couple of days before the eclipse, or "wow, you've
got way better mathematics than we do!" if the prediction if the prediction is
long term.

~~~
setr
It also depends on _who_ in the community actually has this knowledge; in
other words, how generally accessible is it? Should the incan layman be
expected to have such information, when it likely has little effect on their
work?

Its not the community that has this information, but a particular sect of the
community, and the question how large is that section.

My expectation is not very, and was probably only known to whatever shaman
classes exist (who would actually be observing it).

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stillhere
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spherical_Earth#Greek_philosop...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spherical_Earth#Greek_philosophy)

