
The most surprising demographic crisis - spottiness
http://www.economist.com/node/18651512
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w1ntermute
It'll be very interesting to see how the Chinese government deals with (1) the
gender imbalance, once the surplus of males reach marrying age and (2) the
dearth of young people.

I wouldn't be surprised if they easily solved problem #2 by paying poor people
to have more kids (though there will still be a period of labor shortage,
during which they'll probably bring in migrant workers that they'll
unceremoniously boot out when they're no longer needed), but the solution to
#1 will be very interesting to observe.

There are few things that stir as much civil unrest as not being able to find
a woman to marry. They will have to either (a) subsidize the import of women
from Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, North Korea, Mongolia and other poor
neighbors, or (b) kill the surplus men. Given the modern Chinese government's
penchant for a foreign policy of non-interference, (b) seems like the most
likely option. But even China's economic hegemony at the time may not be
enough to suppress the inevitable cries of outrage from abroad (and perhaps
even at home) at the mass murder of millions of young men.

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arkitaip
Import women or kill the surplus men?! Could we please tone down the vitriol?
Frankly, the barbarism your "solutions" presupposes is quite offensive.

~~~
w1ntermute
Then do you have any alternate solutions? I highly doubt that all those men
will be satisfied with sexbots, no matter how realistic the Japanese will have
made them by then.

My presuppositions were purely based on the Chinese government's history of
human rights violations. Given that the government is dominated by engineers,
it's actually not that surprising that they focus on the ends rather than the
means. I did not intend to inject any vitriol; I was simply giving some
probable solutions based on an objective assessment of the situation.

~~~
m-photonic
>I highly doubt that all those men will be satisfied with sexbots, no matter
how realistic the Japanese will have made them by then.

It doesn't matter if they're satisfied or not, so long as they don't become
criminal or violent. Porn and video games seem to be pretty good at
distracting sexless men from more destructive pursuits, let alone sexbots.

Don't get me wrong, the gender imbalance is going to make life pretty awful
for Chinese men, but I think the vast majority of those men will suffer
quietly. The effect on the culture is going to be more subtle than what some
people are envisioning.

~~~
w1ntermute
> It doesn't matter if they're satisfied or not, so long as they don't become
> criminal or violent. Porn and video games seem to be pretty good at
> distracting sexless men from more destructive pursuits, let alone sexbots.

My point was that not restorting to violence depends upon their being
satsified. Porn and video games work for a very small percentage of the
population that is anti-social anyway. The desire to find a mate and reproduce
is at the core of human psychology. For most men, a porn, video games, or even
a sexbot won't be enough.

> I think the vast majority of those men will suffer quietly. The effect on
> the culture is going to be more subtle than what some people are
> envisioning.

Like it says here[0], the number of surplus men will be 32 million. So what if
90% of the men stay quiet? 3 million pissed off men is enough to make all hell
break loose.

0: <https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/11/world/asia/11china.html>

~~~
m-photonic
Well for one thing, you shouldn't look at it as an issue of "32 million
surplus men." The hurt is going to be distributed more broadly throughout the
entire male population. It's not like things like serial monogamy don't exist
in China. What will happen is that relationships will simply be fewer and more
far between for the average man than the average woman.

Interestingly, this is actually already the case in Western countries; in the
US, there are roughly 55 single men for every 45 single women[0]. This is, of
course, due to the younger average marital age of women than men.

Naturally, there's a lot more slack in the system as regards non-marital
relationships than marital relationships; in the latter case the gender
imbalance will indeed be a fundamental difference between China and other
countries. But by the time the dating market shifts conclusively towards
marriage, a lot of men will have aged out of the key crime demographic (ie,
males aged 15-30, who commit such a hugely disproportionate number of crimes
that overall crime rates are mostly a reflection of trends within this group).

I do expect that there will be a little more crime, as well as all kinds of
other unpleasant effects that we can't even predict, but it won't be in
anything resembling a linear fashion, and a lot will depend on other factors.

>Porn and video games work for a very small percentage of the population that
is anti-social anyway.

What do you mean "work?" I'm not saying they can substitute for a real
relationship. The relevant comparison isn't porn and video games vs. a living,
breathing woman, it's porn and video games vs. jail time. And even if their
existence doesn't make crime any less attractive, I think they'll still have
an enervating effect that will make at-risk men less of a danger to others.

0: <http://www.halfsigma.com/2008/04/unmarried-mal-1.html> (look at the bottom
row in the table)

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hugh3
It really _shouldn't_ be surprising that after a few decades of one-child
policy you're going to wind up with far more old people than young people. If
they didn't see this one coming then I'd be very surprised.

Most Western countries are facing a similar problem with aging populations,
though on a lesser scale demographically. On the other hand, the Chinese
government is much happier to leave folks to fend for themselves, while
Western governments run into problems as the old folks demand ever-increasing
spending on pensions and health care.

~~~
vidar
They do see it coming and that is why they are working like crazy to boost the
economy before the inevitable slowdown.

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bryanh
I've often wondering what would happen to populations if/when gerontology
researchers like Aubrey de Grey do find a way to delay death from old age or
even stop it completely.

Would a replacement rate of 2 just result in an ever increasing population or
would other forms of death step in to limit populations? How much bigger could
we expect populations to get if we had a replacement rate of 2 and an average
life span of 1000 years?

I only ask because it seems China is going to be an interesting showcase of
the pros and cons of population control.

~~~
rsheridan6
It would result in increased population growth not just because of decreased
mortality, but because of increased fertility due to the timer on the
biological clock becoming less than an issue, Lots of women don't get around
to having as many children as they like, especially in this era, when many
people are still receiving their education and then trapped under a mortgage
and student loan payments during their fertile years.

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eyeforgotmyname
The gender imbalance is a real problem. Historically cultures that have an
overabundance of males end up at war. I really would hate to be a typical male
in that culture right now. But it's good that their birthrate is decreasing.

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lautenbach
Interesting when you compare the argument made in the ranking article right
now (<http://www.spacex.com/updates.php>) to the one made here in the
Economist. China is at a crossroads it would seem. Further, the potential for
China to have an even greater healthcare-cost problem than the US seems pretty
obvious now, no?

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Sudarshan
I suddenly realized by accident that Chinese children do not have brothers and
sisters. I mean just imagine a whole country... hundreds of millions of
children... not one has a brother or a sister. Imagine a sixth of a population
of the planet shudder when it hears words like "brotherly affection". Life
must be so different there.

~~~
w1ntermute
It's called Little Emperor Syndrome[0]. The kids are spoiled rotten, but they
also have immense pressure to succeed academically.

0:
[https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Little_Empero...](https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Little_Emperor_Syndrome)

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robryan
Health advances may negate some of the problem, if a 60 year old in the future
is as healthy and as active as a 30 year old now no reason why they can't
still be making great contributions to the workforce. In China this may be
harder given how much of the work force is engaged in manual labor type
positions.

