

Ask HN: Is Silicon Valley in a Boom Cycle? - 11thEarlOfMar

I&#x27;ve lived in The Valley for 25 years, arriving just in advance of a recession in 1991. Since then, we&#x27;ve had 2 boom cycles (1996-2000, 2004-2007) and 2 major busts in 2001 and 2008. From my perspective, Silicon Valley is currently in a boom cycle:<p>A. Traffic is the worst I&#x27;ve seen [0]<p>B. Multi-story office complexes are going up at an astonishing rate. A drive down 237 and 101 in Mountain View&#x2F;Sunnyvale&#x2F;Santa Clara passes more than a dozen major construction sites. And Facebook, Apple and LinkedIn all put up major new HQs in the last couple of years (Facebook just completed, Apple still in progress).<p>C. House prices are surging again. Santa Clara County median price is +11.1% YOY to US$1,000,000 [1]<p>D. Apartments in San Francisco are at all-time highs: Average $4,385 for 2 BR in the city [2]<p>E. The San Francisco Bay Area is now home to 5(?) of the top 20 US companies by 
market capitalization, including #1 and #2: AAPL, GOOG(L), WFC, FB, CVX. (ORCL have recently fallen out of top 20)<p>F. Unemployment in The Valley has dropped from 7.0% in July 2013 to 4.1% this month [3]<p>If we are in a boom, what are the underlying market factors specific to Silicon Valley, vs. the rest of the US? How sustainable is it?<p>If we are not in a boom, what are the indicators?<p>[0] http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.sigalert.com&#x2F;Map.asp#lat=37.55783&amp;lon=-122.138&amp;z=2
[1] http:&#x2F;&#x2F;scc.rereport.com&#x2F;market_reports
[2] https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.rentjungle.com&#x2F;average-rent-in-san-francisco-rent-trends
[3] http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.calmis.ca.gov&#x2F;file&#x2F;lfmonth&#x2F;sjos$pds.pdf
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enkiv2
It's not just the valley. The whole market crashes every ~8 years. Expect a
crash before mid-2017.

