
China’s Xi Vows to Defend Maritime Interests, Sovereignty in ’17 - JumpCrisscross
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-31/china-s-xi-vows-to-defend-maritime-interests-sovereignty-in-17
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daly
Mahan ("The Influence of Sea Power upon History") argues that a nation that
depends on ocean-based commerce requires control of the seas. The long term
view requires China to exert such control. Apparently someone in China studies
history.

This must challenge the dominant force, the U.S. Navy.

It is only a matter of time and circumstance that guarantees an attempt to
shift of the balance of control and, as that shift is a fundamental power
struggle, it implies war.

Building a chain of islands in the South China Sea is clever. Islands are
harder to sink than carriers.

Destablizing support of forward deep water ports (the Phillipines) weakens the
ability to maintain a forward presence.

Building a "great firewall" against electronic attack minimizes the problem of
electronic infrastructure attacks.

Building nuclear and hydro power sources reduces the dependence on foreign
coal, making blockades less effective.

Slowly, the weakest points are being reduced, area denial/area defenses are
increasing.

The Navy knows this is happening. They will have alternative strategies. That
won't matter, of course, because the new administration "knows more than the
generals (admirals)". No doubt the new administration has a "secret plan"
which will solve all of the problems.

TPP was a diplomatic attempt to align many nations in an economic coalition
involving all of the end points of trade. The ability to throttle/cut off
trade by economic means rather than military means would allow a diplomatic
solution to the power struggle, avoiding war. "Economic coalition" is not a
term of art for the new administration. Diplomacy is not even in the new
dictionary.

It won't be "just a naval war over there". A power grid shutdown for a week
will lead to starvation rather quickly. You can't get food without trucks. You
can't get trucks without gas. You can't get gas without electicity. We can't
even distribute water to Flint WITH everything working. Feeding NYC without
power will be an impossible task. "Any Society is Three Square Meals away from
Anarchy".

We could avoid all of this with proper diplomacy, respect, and negotiation.
But we won't.

God save the King.

