
Ask HN: Why is everyone I talk to in the real world so unperturbed by Covid-19? - handsomechad
It seems like most people I chat with on a day-to-day basis blithely brush off the risks or worry associated with coronavirus.  I myself am not the alarmist or prepper type, but what I see in the real world (big metro city with multiple cases confiremed nearby) is starkly different from the attitude I see espoused here and on twitter, which is that we may be in for a black swan event that could get worse before it gets better.<p>I hear a lot of &quot;it&#x27;s just the flu...&quot;, &quot;it&#x27;s just the media&quot;... etc.<p>What accounts for this difference, and who is more in touch with reality?  It is the case that I don&#x27;t work in tech any more, so maybe tech-centric communities err more on the &quot;expect the worst&quot; side.  But that begs the question of why?
======
reyntime
81% of cases are mild. Most (younger) people are unlikely to develop severe or
critical symptoms. However, it affects people more the older they are, and
people should still be wary of the virus and practice safe hygiene - wash
hands regularly with soap, use hand sanitiser, don't touch your face, sneeze
and cough into a tissue or your upper arm, and isolate yourself at home if
you're sick. Asymptomatic people can still carry the virus and pass it onto
people who can be severely affected.

So people are unperturbed because it's unlikely to be serious for them, but
they should worry about the effect it will have on the population at large.

------
WheelsAtLarge
We have not seen the impact of the virus and most people do not have a sense
of how fast it can spread.

We have not seen the impact it has on hospitals. People will start to get
scared once they see the hospitals getting full and the care workers starting
to burnout, given the 10+% hospitalization rate. Unfortunately by that time
most of us will be forced to stay home.

Look at what is happening in Italy. Only after they were forced to stay home
have they finally taken the situation seriously.

The CDC has said that most of us will eventually get it. We just hope we don't
all get it so fast that the hospital system is overwhelmed.

[https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html)

~~~
woodandsteel
If the hospitals get massively overloaded, then people who are not sick from
the coronavirus still won't be able to go because there will be no room for
them, even if they need to quite desperately.

------
jsjddbbwj
News fatigue probably. I no longer take news seriously. I know they are trying
to make me worry, that's how they make money. Whatever they say is probably
grossly exaggerated.

Someday it'll be like in "the boy who cried wolf", but what can I do.

------
alexmingoia
Because worry is not actionable. Worrying does not achieve anything.

The actions one can take with regards to SARS-CoV-2 are limited. One can avoid
being in crowded places close to others when possible, and practice careful
hygiene. A minority can work from home. Americans can avoid public transit,
but most urban dwellers outside the USA cannot.

------
elamje
I think it has a balanced chance of being overestimated or underestimated. The
psychology side of me recognizes the human tendency to end up in an echo
chamber(twitter, HN, etc), but the other side of me wonders if this time is
really different.

Only time will tell. The only thing I am certain of is that traditional news
and even twitter to a certain extent has lost a lot of credibility in my eyes,
long before coronavirus was a thing. One of the few industries that will
absolutely win during the next few weeks and months is news, so yeah, they
don’t have the best incentives to calm people’s fears.

------
vanusa
It's because they're still in the denial stage. The panic stage will follow
very shortly. It's just a matter of social contagion.

See also:

[https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/four-
thing...](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/four-things-you-
need-know-about-virus/607495/)

~~~
babygoat
Not really. Some people like to stock up on bottled water and toilet paper so
they can play zombie apocalypse, but taking appropriate safety measures to
prevent it from spreading is a sufficient response.

~~~
garren
The run on toilet paper is what I don’t understand. I heard about it happening
around the country on the radio. A guy being interviewed said something like,
“toilet paper is like gold during the apocalypse.” What?!

Then a relative called me this evening to tell me about people wheeling tp out
of Costco by the pallet. I was at a different store an hour ago to and the
entire bath tissue isle was empty. This is in Denver. My team lead and boss
(both in Toronto) were joking about it happening there too.

The only thing I can think of is that nobody wants to go into a full blown
panic, yet there’s a whole lot of pent up anxiety about the situation. Somehow
buying loads of tp is a kind of coping mechanism. Somebody started it, other
people followed, now no there’s no tp.

My concern is that such widespread odd behavior is just the slightest hint
hint of what a panic would bring.

~~~
JohnFen
In my part of the US, nobody's stocking up on toilet paper. In fact, nobody
appears to be panic-buying anything at all except for isopropyl alcohol, which
I discovered when I needed to get some for a project. There isn't a bottle of
IPA of any strength to be found.

------
JohnFen
I don't know about the people you're talking about, but I've been accused of
insufficient concern about it myself. I don't agree with that accusation.

I am not panicking or obsessing about it, though, and I think people perceive
that as being unconcerned. But it's not. I take it seriously, and engage in
reasonable protective behaviors, but I am not afraid. Why? In part because
there is little reason for me to be actively afraid (yet), and in part because
fear is unhelpful and counterproductive.

Could this be a "black swan" event? Sure, it could. But we're not there yet,
and losing sleep over it won't change the likelihood of it becoming that.

That said, what I see coming out of the US government, and particularly
Trump's statements, make it much more difficult to remain calm.

------
rossdavidh
Well, in my case, I was actually more worried in early February, when I did
not believe that authorities in Austin, TX where I live, would take it
seriously. However, they have in fact cancelled the SXSW music festival, so
that we don't have thousands of people flying in from all over, mixing their
air in planes, then spreading out throughout the city to breathe each other's
air in packed venues.

So in this case, the fact that the authorities are starting to panic a bit, is
reassuring to me.

Also, aside from not going out to big events myself, it's not like there's
much I can do. It's not "quit your job and head to the hills and live off the
land" time, yet, and other than washing my hands, not going to music
festivals, etc. there's not a lot I can do.

------
andrei_says_
[https://www.flattenthecurve.com/](https://www.flattenthecurve.com/) Is one of
the best resources I’ve found and should answer most of your questions.

------
ohiovr
Not everyone has an appreciation of exponential growth. Or the proper fear of
it.

~~~
shric
3blue1brown does: [https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg](https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg)

------
LUmBULtERA
I think it has largely to do with people not understanding the power of
exponential growth.[0] It doesn't help that the U.S. President ambiguously
referred to the coronavirus as "the new hoax".[1] Nor does it help, in my
mind, for the U.S. President, Surgeon General, and countless public health
officials to compare the _current_ deaths due to COVID-19 to flu deaths.[2]

[0]
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/10/coronavir...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/10/coronavirus-
what-matters-isnt-what-you-can-see-what-you-cant/)

[1] [https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/trump-and-the-new-
hoax/](https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/trump-and-the-new-hoax/)

[2] Check their official twitter accounts, press conferences, etc.

------
keiru
I found this so baffling that the best I can say is I don't know, and I've
found no explanation satisfactory. "Denial" doesn't cut it, it's mass
delusion. The first Chinese quarantine was a giant red flag that nearly
everyone ignored.

------
richardknop
This is my personal opinion and I could be 100% wrong. But I think this is no
worse than crazy cow disease or Zika virus or SARS.

Media, as always, cares about clicks and will publish sensational articles. In
China the virus has peaked and the president of China declared victory over
the virus today. We are 2-4 weeks behind China.

It is estimated the virus will peak in 2 weeks from now. So next 2 weeks get
ready for catastrophic headlines. Then eventually daily new reported cases in
Italy etc will start dropping and panic will be over.

I think I have contracted the Coronavirus but since I am a healthy 31 years
old person I have fought it off and defeated it.

~~~
muzani
How do you "think" you have it? Wouldn't you get quarantined if you were
likely to have it?

~~~
richardknop
Vast majority of people who contract the virus just have mild cold or flu
symptoms. Very small percentage of infected people end up going to hospitals.

~~~
flukus
> Very small percentage of infected people end up going to hospitals.

It's 10-20% according to most estimates, enough to flood every hospital system
in the world. Once that happens the death toll starts creeping towards 20% as
they can't treat patients and even people otherwise treatable problems can't
get treated. This is the scenario that needs to be avoided.

> Vast majority of people who contract the virus just have mild cold or flu
> symptoms.

Mild in the medical sense, everyone not hospitalized is considered mild. In
the everyday human sense this translates from nothing to extremely sick. If
your friend had pneumonia you'd be concerned for them wouldn't you? Well
that's a "mild" case.

------
muzani
Media fatigue/cynicism. In the past 10 years, we've had apocalyptic scenarios
about anti-vax, Trump, Brexit, IS, trade war, property crisis, recession,
climate change, US government shutdowns. Before that, there was cigarettes,
obesity, food industry, big pharma, nuclear war, 9/11\. We've also had Zika,
SARS, MERS, Ebola.

I have no idea how scary this is because the media cries wolf all the time.
Everyone cries wolf but life still goes on. So when something actually bad
does happen, everyone's been desensitized to it. It's even worse today now
that newsjacking is a thing.

------
throwaway78678
One good resource from scientists with a "measured" opinion :
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQdMHv026R0&t=637s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQdMHv026R0&t=637s)

------
jelliclesfarm
Interesting.

I would ask you this:

1\. Which part of the world you hail from 2. The people you talk to..are they
mathematically challenged or immersed in the world of numbers(doesnt
necessarily have to be tech/IT)

------
sergiotapia
Consider what the media stands to gain from all this frenzy. You think they
want people calm or reading/watching/consooming as much as possible all hours
of the day?

Use your judgement

~~~
mtnGoat
They don't have a shortage of things to hype up, never have, but the market
dropping actually hurts them.

I'll follow the money, and not conspiracy theories.

------
biolurker1
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias)

------
BooneJS
I coach youth sports and the forums are filled with angry people as high
schools and colleges cancel some spring seasons.

------
babygoat
How is getting perturbed going to help?

------
jjgreen
Would it help?

Rudolf Abel, Bridge of Spies (2015)

------
Maro
I think the reasons are:

1\. In most places, the absolute numbers are still very low. If you look at it
like "X in a million", X is still low, so it feels like there is no need to
panic.

2\. Continuing the above, if you compare X to something else, like "getting
hit by a car" or something similar, it feels rational to not worry about
Corona too much, since you're also not worrying about other things (you're
used to the risks).

3\. People like Trump are comparing it to the flu.

4\. For most healthy, non-smoking people under 50, the risks are relatively
low based on the data. Kids seem to be pretty safe from it.

5\. Based on official numbers it's contained in China: more people are coming
out of the disease than going in, the net number is negative, active cases is
declining. [2]

However, 1. + 2. above are only re-assuring if you use the "independent
events" mental model, which everyone defaults to. Eg. if you get hit by a car
or you get cancer, that doesn't increase my chances. So if the probabilities
are low (X in a million), and you and me getting it is independent and the
probability is not increasing, then the mental model works, and it's
reasonable not to worry. But this mental model is wrong here, because this is
viral growth. It's spreading exponentially outside China [1]. So you getting
it increases my chances of getting [eventually]. We are not indenependent.
It's like the flu in this sense, but it spreads more efficicently and kills
more people, so 3. above is also a wrong.

On point 4 above, let's hope this is the case. But, everyone has older/sick
relatives..

On point 5 above, it'll be interesting to see how liberal democracies respond,
whether they can pull the aggressive measures like curfewing the population
that China did. Also, China has a lot of economic resources, not sure how
smaller/weaker economies will hold up.

In conclusion, I don't think most people realize that for the next ~3 months
(imo for a lot more time), their lifestyles will be drastically different.
Until now we were in "1st world yolo" mode, now it'll be: no going to work, no
schools, no travel, no socializing, no gym, no events.. A lot of the things we
work for, live for, will be put on hold. See China, Italy.

[1] see [https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-
cases/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/), look
for "total cases outside of china", it's a beautiful exponential, the kind
that startuppers would kill for... "viral growth"

[2] see
[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/),
look for "active cases in china"

------
ta999999171
Try telling people many if not most large organizations and elite politicians
are corrupt.

They can't handle reality. Cattle, to be cliché.

------
p1esk
I looked at reported mortality rates and infection rates. Looks just like the
regular flu so far. Do you have some data that indicates otherwise?

~~~
karlh
As I understand it, the difference from flu is that it's much, much more
contagious. 10 pct hospitalized is very different if there are 100,000 cases
vs 100,000,000. There are roughly a million hospital beds in the U.S., I dont
know how many ventilators but a lot less. The healthcare system could be
easily buried if we can't "flatten the curve". The same number of people,
roughly, will get sick, just not as many at a time.

~~~
p1esk
But the data so far indicates it’s no more contagious than a common flu (R0:
2-4).

Are all of these 10% hospitalized were hospitalized because they are in a
serious condition or because of the panic?

The fact that the panic puts a stress on the healthcare system does not mean
the panic is justified.

I’m ok with the panic if the data says this is serious. So, again, do we have
such data?

~~~
dnqthao
The mortality rate is around 1% which is more than 10 times than flu. The
hospitalization rate is 15% and the ICU rate is much bigger than flu. If you
run out of ICU room, more people will die.

~~~
thu2111
We don't actually know the mortality rate. Or rather we don't know it defined
in the way people care about ("what is the likelihood that I might die"). The
closest data seems to be South Korea where they're doing mass testing, but
even then, are they really doing scientifically valid random testing or are
people still self selecting?

I've sort of swung back and forth on my concern levels about this, so I guess
I understand the OP's concern but also the lack of concern in the people he
talks to. I think it's a mix of things:

1\. People learn about this via the media but a lot of people (more than half)
deeply distrust the media. They think journalists lie all the time. Trust in
media polls have been in decline for a long time, so when reporters turn up
with "omg panic" type stories, people don't take it seriously anymore.

[https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/trust-in-media-
down.php](https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/trust-in-media-down.php)

2\. People have been receiving very mixed messages. It's a killer plague but
it's also kinda like having a bad cold. The death rate is way higher than
normal but it's 0.5% in the only country doing mass testing, which doesn't
sound high. It's incredibly dangerous but it's also harmless to children and
healthy adults. Thousands are dying but most of them were about to die of old
age anyway. It's going to crash the economy but that's because the government
is shutting everything down, not because people are actually unable to work.
It's so infectious a single touch can give it to you, but it also requires
standing around someone infected for 20 minutes to get it. It will infect the
entire world but China's cases have already peaked. Etc etc.

It's pretty hard for people to know what to make of all this. I'm not saying
the information people are getting is wrong, but it _sounds_ contradictory and
confusing.

3\. If you believe it's really so infectious then there isn't much you can do.
Nobody can self-isolate forever, and many can't self-isolate at all.

