
All His Life Has He Looked Away, to the Future... - danilocampos
http://daringfireball.net/2011/09/to_the_future
======
varunsrin
> "I simply wish to direct your attention at how utterly different the two
> companies are."

>"Me? I’d be appalled if Apple were to unveil something in the half- (if that)
finished state of Windows 8 for tablets. I enjoy writing about what’s real"

What Gruber claims to understand, but actually doesn't, is that the Microsoft
ecosystem is a very different beast than the Apple ecosystem. Microsoft,
unlike Apple, does not control the entire vertical stack. They don't really
have direct control over hardware or retail distribution (some notable
exceptions - Xbox, Microsoft stores etc., but you know what I mean - it's
nothing like Apple's top-down approach)

There are OEM's, partners, developers that need to get their hands on this
technology - to test it, to ensure compatibility with existing platforms.
There are IT admins that need to figure out how to start deploying this to
their orgs.

Windows can't just launch a new OS 'when its done'. Secrecy is a very Apple
approach, and it doesn't work for other companies that are reliant on many 3rd
parties to complete their ecosystem. Yes, Apple is reliant on devs to write
apps, but its not the same as needing hardware partners ot manufacture
devices. Not saying that either approach is better, you just need to
acknowledge in some cases, secrecy will work against you. Just look at the
fallout over the whole Silverlight / HTML5 issue after All Things D

There's a reason that Windows initially won the application development battle
with Mac OS, its because the company's commitment to backward compat, partners
& developers is solid. Windows is built on a legacy of backward compatibility
- Joel Spolsky has a fascinating article about this that explains things more
eloquently than I can - <http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/APIWar.html>

>"Show me something real, I say. Look at Amazon. Everyone knows they’re
building a tablet. What have they said, though? Nothing. What have they shown?
Nothing. When will they say something? When it’s done. What will they show?
Something real."

Amazon can afford to launch a new Kindle tablet in secrecy, because the 3rd
party ecosystem is not a main part of the kindle. How many authors need to
upgrade their books to support the new Kindle? Zero. Amazon will make sure of
that. Content creators & publishers need to do nothing to support the new
kindle. Amazon can afford to be secret, and is better off being secretive
until it launches. It works for them in this case.

[Disclaimer: MSFT employee]

~~~
ethank
Not to defend Gruber here (since for some reason he is unpopular on HN), but I
think that he does understand what you claim he doesn't.

The point of his polemic is not that Microsoft is fundamentally different than
Apple in approach and execution. Anyone can see that plain as day. It's not
obfuscated in the least.

The question is: which approach is right? Removing for a minute the
preconceptions of "that's just how they are," which produces better products?

I don't think its cut and dry really. Apple currently has some MS type
approaches with iOS because of their third party dependencies on software, and
Microsoft has Apple approaches (i.e., XBox) because of their lack of such.

~~~
recoiledsnake
>Not to defend Gruber here (since for some reason he is unpopular on HN)

Is that why many of Gruber's posts are consistently upvoted on HN?

Out of all that was displayed during the keynote, he got only one thing to
dwell on.

The demo tablet given out has a fan and gets hot? That is like criticizing
Windows because Dell makes a pink laptop. There's going to be immense choice.

And this going to put pressure on Intel and other OEMs to reduce heat and
power consumption to get closer to ARM.

What if you want a more powerful iPad? You're SOL.

~~~
ethank
Why was Microsoft in such a hurry as to release a preview of an OS before the
ecosystem was capable of handling it?

Explain how putting this out with substandard hardware does anything to
bolster confidence from either users or developers? Why not wait until an Arm
chassis was ready?

~~~
blinkingled
Because unless Microsoft shows what they can do with their OS - OEMs will not
have a clue to build new hardware capable of complementing the software.
Different ball game where tight secrecy doesn't really work - OEMs needs
access to what MSFT is doing, developers need it and there are a crazy number
of both of them and they need ample time and clear cut communication from
Microsoft in order to make and bake their plans.

Besides no one is explaining why is demoing a preview OS bad? Because it is
out of style? It's not like Microsoft is pushing the preview down the throats
of average Joes and Janes.

I actually like Microsoft's no surprises approach. It bolsters the confidence
of their OEM and Developer demographic. That's how they have been doing it
since long time. You would have to be too unrealistic a Microsoft Developer to
say "oh that Samsung tablet had a fan. I am just going to ignore Windows 8" -
it doesn't make any sense, it's a developer unit and for that it is pretty
nice - you can develop and debug on it!

------
Kylekramer
"I'm not passing judgment on which strategy is superior. But here is 6 more
paragraphs about how Apple's way is superior"

I am fascinated how much the same people who rail on about how strange it is
when people don't understand the "Apple way" don't understand that there are
also other ways. Beyond drama, what real advantage is given by releasing a
product as soon as it is announced? For Apple, that secrecy and drama _is_ an
advantage. It is what brings the fans back, it is what drums up media
attention. But that isn't the Microsoft way. That isn't what sells Microsoft.
Microsoft doesn't need to win over consumers to sell a piece of hardware, they
need to convince OEMs and enterprise to jump on the latest greatest. And those
people need a decent lead time. Being nice to devs and manufacturers and
business is what makes Windows. Releasing a product as soon as it was
announced would be odd and slightly disconcerting. I'll bet a decent amount
that if it were to happen, the blog posts wouldn't be effusive praise, from
Gruber or Thurott or whomever. And that is okay.

Different strokes.

~~~
bane
You also forgot the preceding six paragraphs of snide comments and bloviated
opinion beating.

------
mycroftiv
>What strikes me about Thurrott’s tweet is that the two companies have
attracted the writers they deserve. Me? I’d be appalled if Apple were to
unveil something in the half- (if that) finished state of Windows 8 for
tablets. I enjoy writing about what’s real.

I can't believe that Gruber can write such self-satisfied tripe without more
self-awareness. His quote is more true than he realizes - the incredible
_smugness_ of both Gruber and Apple is very striking. Rabid fanboyishness
combined with pretension to some kind of superior aesthetic taste in how
product announcements are handled shows that DF is reaching the point of self-
parody.

~~~
Steko
I guess smugness is in the eye of the beholder.

It's not smug when Thurott says "Hello, Windows 8? This is iPad. You win."?

It's not smug when Ballmer dismisses every Apple product when it's released
only to watch that product become a smash hit?

Don't get me wrong Gruber's smug as all hell in this piece but Apple itself?
I'm not so sure that shoe fits although a couple examples come to mind (like
Steve's projection of Safari browser share).

~~~
dreww
they're both smug - what's confusing to me is why anyone who is not a major
shareholder of these enormous corporations has feelings about these relatively
boring narratives.

~~~
switch
because it's like becoming a devotee to a religion.

Most people, instead of being the star of their own lives, want to follow a
cult or religion or leader.

That's why people get such strong illogical feelings about a brand.

------
pavlov
_"I enjoy writing about what’s real."_

This is fairly ironic, when just a few paragraphs earlier he was discussing
the "as-yet-unannounced iPad 3".

Most Apple writers (Gruber included) spend a great deal of time writing about
imaginary products. They are in the business of compiling rumors, wish lists,
Taiwanese newspaper speculations and divinatory readings of Cupertino teacup
leftovers into a coherent whole that could be an Apple product in development.
There's nothing "real" about that process, though.

Windows 8 has a credible story, a visual identity, a unified API, and it's
available for download today. It's clearly a real product for developers, who
were the target audience of the Build conference.

------
Steko
At least Gruber is rightfully giving props to Microsoft for the very original
UI. Every time I see anything Metro based I'm struck at what a breath of fresh
air it is in mobile.

~~~
TomOfTTB
I'm not sure I agree with this. I mean, there are two aspects to consider
here.

The Metro "Theme" which is attractive but I wouldn't call it mind blowing. It
basically plays off a trend that had been developing since the web gained
prominence which is to ditch the pseudo-3d interfaces for a flatter look.
Again, I don't deny its attractive.

The Interface Elements - As far as the UI Metro doesn't change much. It
basically boils down to Widgets instead of icons. I mean, Android already had
desktop widgets. Again not saying what Microsoft is doing is bad (it isn't)
but is it really "a breath of fresh air"?

The real innovation of Metro in Windows Phone 7 is the wall concept where
people can scroll in every direction. But that doesn't seem to be present in
Windows 8.

~~~
doyoulikeworms
I think the reasoning behind the newer Windows phone OSes being a "breath of
fresh air" is not so much that they're 100% original (what is?) or mind
blowing.

It's refreshing because it is, simply put, _different_. Android and iOS much
more closely resemble each other than either resembles any recent Windows
phone OS.

That's my take, anyway.

~~~
sambeau
Android much more closely resembles iOS. That's my take, anyway.

~~~
FxChiP
My phone and Nook Color are both running CyanogenMod 7, which essentially
amounts to stock Android 2.3.3/2.3.4 with tweaks. I do not think they could
look _more_ different from iOS. Where is this "resemblance" theory coming
from?

EDIT: By "tweaks" I mean "under the hood", as far as I can tell.

------
CyberMonk
It's the "iPad Killer" syndrome all over again. How many times has the iPad's
or iPhone's death (and preceding that, Apple's) been predicted? And how many
times has it actually happened?

I feel like every journalist who expresses this sentiment is hoping beyond
hope that this time, this article, is the one that turns out to be timely and
correct. But it's been a stupid bet thus far.

------
sedev
A bit of historical perspective may prove helpful:
[http://daringfireball.net/linked/2011/04/15/thurrott-
claim-c...](http://daringfireball.net/linked/2011/04/15/thurrott-claim-
chowder)

Paul Thurott's track record when it comes to making predictions about the iPad
is _terrible._ There's simply no reason to take him seriously, and perhaps we
should really be criticizing Gruber for the tech blogging equivalent of being
a prominent biologist stooping to debating creationists.

------
shriphani
Ok this is radically entertaining. This is 2 people commenting on how someone
who created something decides to show it to the world and they have made a
penis-length measurement contest of it. And these 2 people made a net
contribution of 0 to the creations themselves.

There should be an "Analyst" flag on posts like this.

------
nl
The most important thing about Windows 8 is that it is Steven Sinofsky's
audition for the Microsoft CEO role.

If Windows 8 is a success he has a great chance to replace Ballmer. If (and
when) that happens is when people should start paying attention to what
Microsoft does again.

Sinofsky is no Steve Jobs, but he is one of the few people who are proving
able to consistently produce good products at Microsoft. If he ran the company
they'd be a force in the industry again.

~~~
cageface
It's pretty incredible in hindsight what a poor steward Ballmer has been for
MS. I can't complain because MS seems to have finally loosened its death grip
on the industry but if I were a shareholder I'd be pretty upset.

That said, I think a resurgent, non-monopolistic MS would be good for the
industry as a whole.

------
msg
tl; dr: Is Windows 8 vaporware? Meanwhile iPad is surrendering all the way to
the bank.

I lost a few brain cells on this one.

------
panicslowly
The Metro UI is great, but the hardware on the market isn't exactly stellar
(compared to iOS/Android offerings). If I were Microsoft, I'd be worried about
something similar happening in the tablet market.

How are they going to stand out in non-traditional PC markets?

~~~
georgemcbay
Hopefully they are working with ASUS to build something like the Transformer,
but running Windows 8 and with an x86 chip. Because that is absolutely 100%
what I want.

I love my current Asus Transformer -- the convertible notebook/tablet form
factor is the perfect system for doing the stuff tablets are good at while
also being usable for doing actual writing and content-creation type tasks.
The missing piece in the current Transformer is productivity software, like
real IDEs. Windows 8 + x86 fixes that. I've been an Android fanboy for the
past couple of years, but the promise of really melding mobile with desktop
has me super jazzed for Windows 8 and I really hope Microsoft pulls it off.

~~~
X-Istence
Windows 8 has been ported to ARM, so it doesn't even need to be x86.

~~~
illumin8
Although I'd be willing to bet you need an x86 processor to run a full blown
copy of Visual Studio 2012 or whatever release comes out with Windows 8.

It will be interesting to see how much of the first party software runs on ARM
tablets. Will we get a full featured Office, or will it be
PowerPoint/Word/Excel "lite" or viewers only? Will you need a stylus or will
they actually redo the interface to be touch compatible?

There is an awful lot of software ecosystem that is completely incompatible
with a touch UI. This is probably a bigger engineering task than the original
change from 16-bit to 32-bit for Windows 95. I'm not so confident that
Microsoft can pull it off in less than 18 months.

------
latch
This is a common problem with Microsoft. They announce products well before
they are available for purchase and end up disappointing everybody (including
themselves).

One of the Zunes (maybe ZuneHD? maybe the 1st one), was announced at a
specific price and they made it clear this was X dollars cheaper than an iPod.
Problem is, it wasn't shipping for another year..guess what Apple did?

They are in a hard position though (of their own doing)....they are far behind
[the tablet market], so they need to do something. Unfortunately, all they can
do is show something that'll be available later on.

------
0x12
This article misses out on one small detail: it is a lot easier to update
software than it is to update hardware after you ship it.

It was a silly tweet and I think that it may be a little bit too soon to call
the race run. For now iPad is solidly in the lead, let's see how it plays out.

Who releases what in which way is probably not a factor in the long run.

------
TorgoGuy
Gruber is no idiot. However, he missed the mark and has his Apple-blinders on
here. Apple pre-announces nearly all of its operating systems and give
developers access to betas. (Didn't I read Gruber talking about pre-release
versions of OSX Lion? How about his recent posts about iOS 5?) The vendors
have to provide information ahead of releases so that developers can write
applications for them.

Thurrott isn't an idiot either. He has long been frustrated by Microsoft's
boneheaded mistakes and tweeting his excitement over all the things Microsoft
seems to be _finally_ getting right with Windows 8 in a humorous way doesn't
equal some kind of prediction. However, he conflated a software-only platform
(Windows 8) with an integrated hardware/software platform (iPad/iOS). No doubt
decent tablet hardware will arrive for Windows 8, but we'll see how well
they'll work together.

------
saturdaysaint
I like Gruber, but this isn't his best piece. He's trying too hard to argue
something that's _obvious_ \- Windows 8 is coming out in a year or more, so
placing it in the competitive landscape probably requires a fairly harsh
assessment. If you make a few modest projections about where the iPad and
Android will be in a year (both in market/mindshare and in terms of product
advancement), Windows 8 will probably be at a hard disadvantage in the
consumer space.

There's a lot to discuss/praise/criticize about Windows 8 so it's a shame he
got into the discussion by rising to flamebait and flailing at something
resembling a criticism of MS's strategy.

------
trebor
Strategies like "release early, release often" and "version 0.1" don't work
for massive corporations that can afford to finish a product before actively
hyping it.

I'd respect Microsoft more if they'd actually imitate that facet of Apple.

~~~
kkowalczyk
This is apples (iPad - a hardware device) to oranges (an operating system).

Apple is doing exactly the same thing as Microsoft when it comes to os. First
beta version of iOS 5 was released 3 months ago at WWDC, Apple's equivalent of
Build conference, and is not shipping yet. The same goes for Mac OS X - beta
builds are available to developers long before the final retail build. Neither
Microsoft nor Apple can just ship their OS without giving developers enough
time to test their apps for compatibility and fix inevitable issues.

As to why Microsoft doesn't follow Apple's hardware release strategy: it's
because Microsoft doesn't do hardware. They don't make PCs. They don't make
tablets. They don't make phones.

The release strategy for hardware is up to the companies that do make the
hardware: Dell, Sony, HP, HTC, Samsung etc.

~~~
trebor
That is true.

Yet I constantly think about the various companies that hype their Windows-
powered tablets which never are released. Due to that happening a number of
times with HP, and others, I've been expecting Microsoft to one-up the
hardware companies and make their own tablet. Just get done with it. Or, stop
the idiots from hyping incomplete products.

That's why I mixed issues like that together.

------
epo
Thurott has been called a Microsoft fanboy, and Gruber has been called an
Apple fanboy. If it matters, read and agree with whichever one reinforces your
own personal prejudices.

For me the Thurott comments are just Microsoft vapourware being cheered on by
an MS groupie. I'll believe in the Windows 8 tablet when I see it, and if I
ever see it I'll compare it to whatever is available from other suppliers at
the time.

For now the iPad has no credible competitor. When, if, a Windows 8 tablet
comes along I will be astonished if that claim can be made about that product.

------
aufreak3
Tired of this kind of speculation. Let the doers do.

Microsoft seems to be, for once, trying to make something nice and different
from the rest of me-too pads out there. Even if it were to launch two years
from now, what if they have something so differentiated from the iPad at that
point that it might attract its own following? Is iPad the end of all
computing innovation?

I'd say Go Microsoft! Give Apple a run for its money if you can!

------
ahi
Design is about constraints. Throw battery life, processor power, and price
out the window and it's easy to produce something incredible.

------
tambourine_man
A great title for a mediocre article. Had he simply answered Paul's tweet with
Yoda's quote, little could be said against it. Instead, he elaborated poorly
on obviousness.

------
ihaveaquestion
Microsoft = All talk and no cock!

------
recoiledsnake
>"I enjoy writing about what’s real."

Then why was he writing about iOS 5 from a long time?

And I guess the below is a figment of my imagination.

[http://wdp.dlws.microsoft.com/WDPDL/9B8DFDFF736C5B1DBF956B89...](http://wdp.dlws.microsoft.com/WDPDL/9B8DFDFF736C5B1DBF956B89D8A9D4FD925DACD2/WindowsDeveloperPreview-64bit-
English-Developer.iso)

~~~
dhbanes
Is this a link to just the tablet or does it come with extra batteries & a
charger as well?

------
barista
Funny how he turned the conversation to whose approach is better. Both Apple
and Microsoft have followed their respective approaches for years and I doubt
they are going to change it.

What is important to me is to realize how quickly microsoft has reacted and
how convincing the reply sounds. Compare what they showed today to the
vaporware of Vista. Microsoft has come a long way since then and its
impressive turnaround for a company that size and that has such legacy
baggage.

------
absconditus
Again, what about it is better?

