
A call to honesty in pandemic modeling - mathdev
https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b
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woofie11
I think the assumption is that in 2 months, we'll have test capacity, lower
number of cases, and we'll be able to switch to containment.

But this assumption definitely needs to be articulated.

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lowdose
Such an assumption should be explicitly been represented in the prediction
model. Cutting off the time window of a model at an arbitrary period of 2
months is ambiguous at best when the model is about estimating the cumulative
outcome in time.

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lern_too_spel
The point of these models is to estimate peak utilization of health
facilities, not to predict outcomes of different remedies after the initial
suppression period.

