
Flying: It’s Worse Than You Think - pseudolus
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/05/is-flying-safe-coronavirus/611335/
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chkaloon
In times like these what society needs is a leader who appeals to our better
angels, who pushes everyone toward the greater good. Instead we have one that
puts the worst of human foibles on full display, thinking only of getting the
blame elsewhere so ratings don't suffer. It normalizes that behavior across
society.

It will take a long time to recover from that. We will still be suffering for
it long after the virus is tamed.

~~~
basch
>Instead we have one that puts the worst of human foibles on full display

How did we get here? What drove the worldwide populist uprising? It's not like
this event was unique to the USA, it happened all around the world, near
simultaneously.

Did people get left behind by globalism and a few influential people in the
limelight (Wall Street, Hollywood in America)? Politics started speaking
towards a narrower and narrower sect of the populations, confusing the loudest
for the most. Or was it hate weaponized by a different elite, who themselves
felt they were being left behind? Sort of a chicken and the egg.

~~~
chkaloon
All of the above. I would add a breakdown of local community institutions -
churches/temples/mosques, fraternal clubs, unions, etc., and the switch to
online "communities" with no real human contact.

~~~
AnimalMuppet
And the pandemic didn't make that better. "No human contact" is maybe the
toughest part of sheltering in place for many people.

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siberianbear
There's something that I'm not getting in all this: given the R0 for this
virus, the situation isn't going to disappear until about 70% of the
population has developed immunity.

The purpose of all these isolation and social distancing measures is to slow
down the process in order not to overwhelm hospitals. But the news reports
I've been reading about hospitals is that in general, in developed countries,
the hospitals aren't overwhelmed.

If 70% or so haven't developed immunity, then the pandemic will just re-emerge
as soon as the restrictions are lifted. It seems to me that eventually 70% are
going to get it. Shouldn't we just let it loose and go through our destined
suffering faster?

So why are we making ourselves go through all this? ELI5?

~~~
magneticnorth
I'm not an epidemiologist or involved in government policy decisions, but I
agree with your assessment that we won't be able to truly go back to normal
until we have 70%+ immunity, be that through infection or vaccine (2+ years
away). My guess as to what is driving current policy decisions is that a few
factors are in play:

1) If we just "let it loose" then we will quickly overwhelm hospitals and see
greater loss of life than is necessary

2) We may be able to delay widespread infection until there are more effective
treatments. And, given how much we don't know, it is almost certainly the case
that a delay of a few months until widespread infection means that we will
have a better understanding of how effective our current treatments are,
allowing better treatment and better allocation of hospital resources

3) Slowly reopening allows high-risk groups to keep themselves safer, while
people who are eager to get haircuts and play sports and aren't worried about
the risk can volunteer themselves to be part of our herd immunity group.

~~~
basch
Something like 80-90% of the deaths in some states are age 80+ and or at
communal living situations. Is there a takeaway here, about more surgically
precise lockdowns?

Also, many projections appear to predict spread uniformly. Should spread be
modeled more by frequency of travel and interaction, moreso assuming that
people with frequent interactions are likely to be infected first?

There has to be a way to model, predict, and account for the ebb and flow of
which demographics are getting hit, and how to shape the spread with regard to
capacity and risk. Hospitals are empty, open the gates a bit. Opening up
restrictions on the lowest risk populations first, and tightening them back up
as cases rise too fast. This would likely be predicated on a stronger welfare
state, more equipped to serve people they are asking to stay locked down.
"Stay inside, but we got your back" coupled with "your risk is low, go build
herd immunity, stay away from the vulnerable."

Maybe something like a pollen or wildfire indicator, or defcon, county by
county. "Free to do anything. Slightly elevated risk. High risk quarantine.
Quarantine for all" with week by week or day by day updates. I understand that
such a volatile type of lockdown would be hard for businesses to adapt to.

~~~
magneticnorth
Yeah, it seems that daily or weekly indicators like we currently do for
pollen, wildfire smoke, smog etc could be very helpful. In order for that to
work, though, we'll need very widespread testing - currently we're observing
spread with a 1-2 week lag once symptomatic people get their test results
back.

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Simulacra
So I flew on Delta from National Airport to Atlanta and it was one of the best
flights I've ever had. There was no one in the middle seat, everything was
very clean, the airport was mostly empty and quiet, no children, and my drink,
snack, and complementary Purell wipe was given to me in a plastic bag. It was
surreal to be sure, I'd never been treated so well on an airplane.

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mindslight
That picture of the dude in the full face respirator - he appears to have the
mercury/chlorine gas cartridges with no particulate filters? Sigh.

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MiguelVieira
Has there been a single peep from the federal government about how to make
airports and air travel safe?

~~~
qppo
How about "don't."

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chkaloon
This Vox Weeds episode pretty much sums up my anger at this point in history.
[https://megaphone.link/VMP6490531372](https://megaphone.link/VMP6490531372)

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huy-nguyen
> The things we miss most about our pre-pandemic lives—dine-in restaurants and
> recreational travel, karaoke nights and baseball games—require more than
> government permission to be enjoyed. These activities are predicated not
> only on close human contact but mutual affection and good-natured patience,
> on our ability to put up with one another. Governors can lift restrictions
> and companies can implement public-health protocols. But until we stop
> reflexively seeing people as viral threats, those old small pleasures we
> crave are likely to remain elusive.

At this rate, life will not fully return to normal until a substantial share
of the population has been vaccinated.

~~~
eloisant
I don't think life will ever return to what it was before.

Just like 9/11 changed air travel forever, this pandemic will have long
lasting effects on how we live as a society.

~~~
kmbfjr
I used to think that we'd emerge a cleaner more considerate society. I was
naive.

Too many Americans are far too selfish and inconsiderate not to return to the
"way things were". We're already seeing the 1%'ers of that class coming out of
their caves demanding a return to normalcy regardless of the costs in lives.

When, is answered by either when there is a vaccine or the virus has touch
pretty much everyone. Given the political distaste for doing things like other
countries or upon the advice of people who know about pandemics, my money is
on the latter.

~~~
erik_seaberg
I'm not worried about normalcy, I'm worried about running out of replacement
parts for the huge distributed system that we all rely on for food and energy
and communication. We're draining the queue right now, and I don't believe a
command economy can replace the continuously tuned marketplace we halted.

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techslave
this is a silly, perhaps stupid, touchy feely article, done poorly in obvious
haste. zero insight. don’t waste your time.

~~~
Lammy
Agreed; the headline made me hope for an evaluation of the worldwide climate
impact or air travel.

