

Ask HN: Is it too late to profit from Bitcoin? - bubblepop


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amish
I think the future is in this TYPE of currency, but I think the premise that
bitcoin is using to "generate" through mining is the wrong approach.

I've had in the back of my mind an idea for a long time that will take alot of
ingenuity to implement, but I'm fairly confident it will be the kind of
electronic currency that will sustain itself well after bitcoin.

The concept is based on the idea that there is no centralized or distributed
mechanism for determining who has "mined" the currency. Each individual just
creates an account, and over the lifetime of that account sustains itself
based on comparisons with others whom they've transacted with. The algorithm
would need to adapt to attempts to defraud it, but think about this.

If I am transacting with someone who has been spending the currency like a mad
man, their currency can be seen as less valuable to the overall population
(since they may be a statistical outlier in usage of the currency). When
someone has spent too little, this can also be a negative, since new and
unestablished accounts mean the person may be less trustworthy, etc.

I think the key to this may be in the ability to tie an account to a person's
real identity somehow.

The concept around it really puts everyone on even footing when the currency
first hits the market. None of this madness. Sure you can probably make money
for a while with Bitcoin, but I'm not willing to bet too much on the long-term
sustainability of it, just because it will be like most currencies in the
past. Some will start with alot, and some will be left out to dry with none.
It's simply not as appealing as a self-regulating currency.

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wmf
I'm tempted to say yes, but then I thought it was too late at $1, $33, and
$266.

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OafTobark
Given the short albeit brief history, although there is no way for me to know
for sure, I'd say it still has a lot of growth to go for a long time
considering Bitcoin's market position or lack thereof. Meaning, its only the
beginning.

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Morphling
I'm mad at myself for not having balls/faith in Bitcoin ~1 year ago. The price
was around $10 per BTC and I debated if I should buy 1 coin per month just in
case the price went up, but I didn't... I could have had a ton of money now if
I just had got the balls...

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richardkiss
21 million BTC divided by 7 billion people yields .003 BTC per human. That's 1
BTC for every 333 people.

There are fewer than 11.5 million addresses in use, so fewer than 11.5 million
people have any BTC. There is a lot more growth to come.

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williamle8300
You have to do your research.

Peter Blodget in the PandoDaily talk was pretty pessimistic about it. See:
pandodaily.com/2013/11/18/blodget-and-the-rarified-air-around-bitcoin/

I, for one, am somewhat pessimistic about it since it doesn't tie to a
national currency. Noble cause, but naîve, IMO.

Tech is about creating value for the long-term.

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RachelF
If I knew the answer to that I wouldn't be posting on HN :)

Seriously, though, you need to predict the behaviour of others - will they
think that it is going up?

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2810
there is no such thing as "too late".. the only thing you should be deciding
on, is how high/low will bitcoin be, end of next year. If you think the price
per BTC will soar up to $2000, then was it too late to buy now? Absolutely no!

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throwaway1979
The upside is much lower though if it goes to 2K at this point. I think a
bunch of us want to kick ourselves because the insane upside is gone. i.e.
100x. Those crazy returns were usually reserved for VCs :-p

I bought a small amount now. Total speculation. Not enough to ever make a
difference to me. I guess I'm like an entrepreneur who got heavily diluted.

My total guess is that there is a lot of pent up demand right now. A lot of
tech people have already got into it but a lot more "normals" will take time
to figure out how to get into bitcoin. Again, my guess is that it could
collapse once the last of the "normals" has gotten theirs. Some chance there
will be a day trading platform come out of it. Some chance it will become a
lot bigger ... global currency level big. Who knows?

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yitchelle
Given the volatility of Bitcoin, isn't this more like gambling rather than
investing?

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phaed
Short-term volatility.

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phaed
That's what they said every month for the past 3 years.

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officialjunk
is it too late to profit from [insert currency here]?

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krapp
yes.

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officialjunk
lol. on a more serious note, op's question is incomplete. i assume the
question is: "is it too late to buy and hold btc for a profit?," which is what
most of the answers here seem to be implying, but that's the not the only way
to profit...

