

Nothing is ever as risky as you think it is - sama
http://www.unschooled.org/2011/03/what-sam-altman-taught-me-about-risk/

======
MichaelGlass
Give us some concrete examples of tough decisions with obvious objective
upside?

Also: A lot of what makes it hard to be a founder is not the shame of failure,
but knowledge of lost time. If my company goes under, I'm not as disappointed
in my lack of success as I'm disappointed in time not spent more productively
elsewhere. There's a subtle distinction there.

~~~
nicholasjbs
Asking a woman out. Giving a lightning talk at a conference. Shutting down a
website to drastically change direction. Launching a product most people will
call a "toy" or "feature."

You're right that there are objective downsides to startups (e.g., time sunk
into something that doesn't pan out), but the lower bound is known and, to me
at least, not that bad. Working on a startup that fails isn't like shorting
stocks (which has a theoretically unlimited downside). In fact, I'd argue the
worst case is many times better than working two years at Microsoft or Google,
at least in terms of personal growth and development.

~~~
nostrademons
I founded a startup that failed and then worked for Google for 2 years (and
counting...). I'd say they were about equal in terms of personal growth and
development, but taught me very different things. Failing at a startup taught
me a lot about _myself_ , what I really value and want to do, what my
tolerance for ambiguity and stress and risk is, and so on. Working for Google
taught me a lot about _the world_ , what other people value and want to do,
user expectations and how they'll never be satisfied, plus a whole bunch of
technical skills. Hopefully, combining them together means the next startup
will succeed. :-)

It doesn't have to be an either/or. There's plenty of time to both fail at a
startup and work a couple years at Google.

------
shalmanese
What about doing drugs, having an affair with your secretary or trading in
"hedged" derivatives that could only lose money if the entire housing market
faced a downturn?

~~~
abstractbill
_What about doing drugs?_

Also (for many drugs) not as risky as most people think.

~~~
cubicle67
have you factored in your (assuming you're in the US) rather brutal judicial
system?

------
alecco
This is terrible advice. There are almost always unexpected unknowns.

There's a human (irrational) bias to be risk averse, but that doesn't mean
it's always safer than we think. We also have selection bias as a
counterpoint. There are plenty of similar posts with the opposing view based
on the later bias, too.

Instead, let's try to be more rational and understand probability:

Probability Theory: The Logic of Science
<http://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf> (draft)

[http://www.amazon.com/Probability-Theory-Logic-Science-
Vol/d...](http://www.amazon.com/Probability-Theory-Logic-Science-
Vol/dp/0521592712)

------
mkramlich
good short article

he's totally right in how he contrasts asking someone out vs riding a
motorcycle without helmet. and yes, starting a company has little physical
downside (if crafted with reasonable caution, by doing things like minimizing
expenses early until business model proven, etc) but a huge potential physical
upside (great wealth and freedom).

~~~
stcredzero
Sounds like something from lesswrong.com

------
billswift
There is a phrase I have used often: "Nothing is as good, or as bad, as it
first appears."

Similarly, "Nothing is as risky, or as safe, as it first seems."

Also, I disagree with his dismissal of subjective risk. If taking a particular
action feels bad to you, then it feels bad. A better course than trying to
deny that would be to learn to accept your feelings but to go on in spite of
them. Feelings are much easier to change over the longer term, usually by
short term acceptance - your unconscious will eventually realize that the
feelings are overblown (if they are) and you will come to react less strongly
with repetition, over time.

------
remnant
Regarding risk perception, I've always liked this quote from the book
'Adventures of a Dead Sea Smuggler' by Henry de Moinford:

"There was no use worrying about the possible difficulties to come, they
always loom very large and terrible in the distance, but when one arrives at
the foot of a wall there is always some foothold that enables one to climb
it."

