
How the iPad Went from Massive to ‘Meh’ in 5 Short Years - shahocean
http://www.wired.com/2015/01/ipad-went-massive-meh-5-short-years/
======
GoofballJones
Saturation and people are satisfied with what they have.

Take my mother-in-law (please) for example. She does _everything_ on her iPad.
Banking, email, surfing the web. She literally (yes, literally) hasn't touched
her desktop computer in years.

But, she's still only on an iPad 2. She'll run that into the ground before
she'll get another. She loves it, but isn't on any "upgrade cycle", the same
for many people.

Now, it would be different if iPad sales were down 18%, yet Android or Windows
tablet sales were rising to fill in that gap. As it is, _all_ tablet sales are
down.

~~~
aetherson
Yes, clearly a factor in the tablet sales slowdown is:

Frequent computer users do not feel comfortable replacing their laptops with
tablets. They bring their laptops with them. And then they say, "Do I really
want to tote around a tablet as well?" The answer is no, their tablets
languish at home, and they don't upgrade.

Very casual computer users may largely or entirely replace their computers
with tablets... but they're very casual users. They don't want to be on an
upgrade treadmill, and their needs are modest. An old tablet works fine.

~~~
Derbasti
When I go on a trip, I always take my tablet instead of laptop, just because
its smaller and I won't be tempted to work.

My tablet can't replace my laptop at all, but it's a great device for
traveling, reading, and watching videos.

------
forcer
I am a father of 2 year old. I did not experience being a parent before iPad
arrived but I suspect it changed the parenthood completely. These days I see
all kids of all ages interacting with tablets. My son started using one before
he was 1 year old, now he is experienced user, able to start, launch games he
likes and videos he wants to see on youtube. Its so powerful as it is scary.
Everyone from parents is scared what it will do to kids. Parents are split on
this, I embrace it (because its so easy to have a break from hyperactive son)
but some fight it furiously and swear by it. How many parents are there in the
world, how many kids are there? Is there a way for Apple to serve this market
better?

~~~
facepalm
I'm in the same boat, my tablet gets most use from my son. For kids it's a
great hing. Before reading age, though - once he can read he'll get a proper
computer and I'll teach him programming...

------
pitchups
The article misses a more likely reason for the declining sales: maybe sales
of the iPad are declining - not because the iPad has lost its appeal - but
because the market is saturating and most people who wanted an iPad, have
already got one. Folks who have iPads that are 3 or 4 year old are not in the
market for newer models - as the old ones are working just fine.

~~~
graeme
Indeed. I use an iPad to make drawings for online lessons. It made drawings
well when I got it in 2012, and it continues to make drawings well.

I won't ever upgrade unless it breaks or software updates junk it. Why would
I?

It would be a mistake to view my reluctance to upgrade as a bad thing, from
apple's perspective. I've bought two MacBook airs since (I needed an upgrade
for work projects). The fact that the iPad is so reliable is one of the
reasons I buy apple products without much though. So far, they work, and they
last. I'm writing this message on an iPhone 4 from 2010. Still works
wonderfully. (only because I'm running iOS 5 though)

~~~
avinassh
> Indeed. I use an iPad to make drawings for online lessons. It made drawings
> well when I got it in 2012, and it continues to make drawings well.

What all tools/apps/stylus you use? What's the entire process is like? Can you
show some of your videos?

~~~
graeme
They're just drawings to illustrate what I'm talking about, nothing fancy.

I use jotwithme, a whiteboard app, and an alupen stylus.

I'm actually planning to use these to make some online videos. I tried a Wacom
tablet but ha no drawing skills with it. I haven't found a better drawing app
that lets me project to the screen. It's a little messy, but I think in my
niche (education) it actually goes over well.

Btw, bought my first iPad the year I started my business, when money was
short. But it let me teach people online, so it paid for itself in a couple
months, and then is pure profit. The ROI to owning it for my limited use case
has been astronomical.

------
dasil003
It's crazy how out of whack people's expectations for Apple have become.

I mean after the string of iMac => iPod => iTunes => iPhone, people were just
expecting iPad to split the earth in half or I don't know what. Not that the
article's reasoning is wrong about the ultimate utility of an iPad, but I find
it really hard to describe it as a "meh" product. Remember tablets before the
iPad? There were a lot of them but you probably don't remember any because
none got any market traction whatsoever.

~~~
semi-extrinsic
I'm not convinced that the iPad was all that revolutionary, I think that
2009/10 was the year when the hardware needed to build a successful tablet
became cheap enough to build a profitable one. The equally successful Galaxy
Tab launched just half a year later, and Samsung obviously didn't start
working on it after the iPad launch. It really was an "obvious" thing given
the wild success of smartphones (not that the engineering/software/UX work was
in any way trivial).

~~~
Derbasti
you might want to google "equally successful"
([http://appleinsider.com/articles/14/04/11/exclusive-apple-
vs...](http://appleinsider.com/articles/14/04/11/exclusive-apple-vs-samsung-
docs-reveal-galaxy-tab-was-a-flop-and-samsung-knew-it)).

------
kzanul
I think thats just natural maturity of the product. Novelty has worn off but
there's still enough utility to drive steady mainstream demand. 'Meh' is a bit
harsh. It's just become a standard piece of your house like a TV or coffee
maker that you now assume is probably going to be present. Not a bad place to
be for Apple for a five year old product.

------
ghaff
As others have said, a lot of people already own iPads and there's nothing
about the current concept/design that encourages especially upgrade cycles.
Not that there's anything wrong with that from a consumer perspective. It does
what it does pretty well and doesn't really call out for incremental
improvements to battery life/resolution/processor power/etc. although those do
naturally come about with each iteration. And, of course, the carriers don't
subsidize upgrade cycles as they do with phones.

Being able to share data plans with phones at nominal cost would be one
interesting upgrade driver but that's really in the hands of the carriers and
is unlikely.

The other interesting possibility across both Macbook and iPad lines would be
some sort of reconvergence of tablet and laptop experience but Apple got to
where it is by doing the precise opposite so I'm not sure Apple feels a big
impetus to shift up the playing field right now. (Microsoft OTOH has been
trying to parlay its desktop strength with tablets that are more tightly
coupled but with somewhat limited success--to say nothing of the fact that
Windows 8 was largely a product of this thinking.)

~~~
bigiain
Anecdotal data point: I'm typing this reply on an original iPad I bought on
release day, and haven't yet felt the need to upgrade.

And in response to the last snarky line in the article - who buys magazines
that pile up on the coffee table any more? I used to have a $60 or $70 a month
magazine habit - its been years since I bought a magazine. About a grand for
this iPad (Australian price ing), plus maybe another $900 in 3G connection, I
reckon I saved all that in under two years of iPad ownership in savings from
not needing to buy 5 or 10 magazines a month to have something to read over
lunch.

~~~
ghaff
I gave my original to my dad--who loves it and this is someone who could never
really use a computer. Given that I'm tech support, best present (for me) that
I ever gave :-) If I hadn't given it away I suspect I'd still be using it and
just thinking about upgrading.

I do still buy magazines--but very selectively. Partly because, oddly, I can
get some paper magazines cheaper than I can get digital subscriptions. I also
just prefer flipping through some magazines than sitting down to read them
digitally.

~~~
Terretta
If you subscribe to several magazines, paper or digital, check out "Next
Issue".

I agree paper is cheaper than digital when you subscribe at those sweepstakes
type rates. Next Issue inverts that again, brings 150 magazines for
$10-15/month and a lot less clutter.

~~~
ghaff
Thanks. I'll check it out. Invariably I go through these cycles where I'm
tempted by $5-10 subscriptions and the stuff just piles up unread especially
when I travel.

------
melling
68 million devices last year is meh? It's not a big deal because everyone in
the world doesn't want one? A decade ago Apple was only selling 4m-5m Macs a
year. Now hundreds of millions buy Apple "computers" creating a massive
ecosystem. When they only sell 5 million watches in the next 12 months, I hope
we don't waste too much time with the meh's.

~~~
wodenokoto
In business, number of units sold is not as important as number of units more
sold.

It's meh because it isn't increasing in sales, not because its sales are low.
If they sold 20 million last quarter, but had an constant year-over-year
increase in sales, it wouldn't be considered meh.

I'm not sure I agree with this thinking either, but that's the explanation at
least.

------
danso
I waited in line for the iPad, and I bought two iPad 3s (because I lost one of
them)....I really enjoyed the iPad, and it did feel revolutionary.

But in a twist of timing, shortly after I bought my first iPad, I also got a
Macbook Air...and that was both so portable and such a delight to use that the
iPad was relegated to novelty and gaming device. I barely use my iPad 3
anymore, except as a time-waster for reading websites...and it's not bad at
that (in fact, I'll sometimes stow it away, as it's too tempting to just take
it out and read in bed)...it's just that it doesn't fundamentally change how I
interact with the world. It's simplicity was beautiful...but it ended up being
too simple for me...and I'm pretty relieved that it hasn't taken over the
world. There are just too many things in computing and in the general work of
creation that require more than multi-touch gestures. I hope the keyboard is
here to stay for a long while.

~~~
hvidgaard
I think people have different expectations. I use my iPad for couch surfing,
checking the news, reading email, Facebook, simple stuff where I do not need a
computer. It's perfect for that. I don't fool myself thinking it can be used
seriously.

------
lmedinas
In my opinion the problem with iPad is iOS. Not saying that iOS is bad it's
just not as good enough for tablets. The iPad Air 2, for example, has a huge
amount of power in it's CPU and it's not by far being used on OS level
functionality like multitasking. Until Apple makes iOS more appealing and
functional for tablets people will find it boring or "just another version of
an iPhone/iPod with big screen". Also there are some good and cheaper Android
tablets in the market. For these reasons people don't feel excited about iPad
as they were before.

I owned an iPad 3 and now an Air 2 and i can say that the hardware is top
notch and it still continues to be probably the best tablet of the market
overall. I also use an Android Phone. :)

~~~
jballanc
I agree, but I also think this falls into the category of "good problems to
have". The unfortunate reality is that all software has the tendency to
accumulate "features" like a katamari. Apple knows this, and so I think they
are being deliberately slow about introducing new features to iOS. Remember
how long it took to get copy/paste? The introduction of extensions,
notification center widgets, custom keyboards, etc. in iOS 8 shows that Apple
knows they still are light on features and are willing to add them, even if
the pace of addition is glacial...

------
colemorrison
I was just discussing this with someone the other night. I got the first iPad
and for the first 2 years, I was a junkie for new apps. Little pieces of
software that specialize in 1 thing? GREAT!

Nowdays though, even with the newest iPad, I barely use it for anything beyond
browsing, video, and books. I know they keep pushing it to be a tool, but when
I want to do real work, I go to my computer.

------
borgchick
It's good for light gaming, I play driving games all the time on it, but I
would never bother with driving games on my PC.

It's good for light computing, I see my husband on the couch with his iPad air
all the time writing emails, reading the news, browsing Youtube etc. Yes he
can do that in front of his computer, but the couch is much more comfy.

------
sitharus
I got an iPad soon after they were released. I never really used it much, and
for a few years I pretty much ignored the tablet scene.

Then I took a long overseas holiday. It was great having something bigger than
my phone, but easier to transport than my laptop. I soon bought the new iPad
Mini, and I've combined it with a Wacom Creative Stylus 2. Now I can draw and
take notes on my iPad. It's really changed the way I work.

I would suspect market saturation has been reached though. Also there are few
new features that would compel an upgrade. That's been true of a lot of tech
though - my laptop is three years old and I don't intend to replace it this
year.

------
shenoyroopesh
"Meh!"? Really?

Apple has a product portfolio. I agree iPhones are doing much better right now
in terms of growth, but I have no doubt that the completeness of their
portfolio (from macs to ipads to iphones) is what keeps sales for all product
categories going just a bit more.

I bought an ipad first, and then bought a macbook. The next phone I buy might
be an iPhone - which I never would have, if I had not bought the iPad.

And amongst tablets, I don't understand which other tablet is better than an
iPad.

For a category defining product that still sells millions of units per year, I
think calling it "Meh" is just passing an opinion for journalism.

------
jestar_jokin
iPads are still massive for music production. Having a standalone piece of
hardware that can act as multiple synths & effects, a vocoder, even a DAW, at
an acceptable latency, is a huge boon.

------
larzang
I wonder what the sales numbers look like if isolated solely to
commercial/education/government purchases. The small business I work for is
one of a number in the area that has transitioned to an iPad solution (Square
stand) for all our POS needs in the last year, and there are a lot of other
business use cases where tablets make far more sense than the alternatives,
much more so than for people at home.

------
blahbap
There is definetely some truth to the article that the IPad does not really
serve any very useful purpose. I have 3 IPads lying around at home, so I just
made a "family calendar" web application for IPad and put it up on the wall.
The app shows the weather forecast, today's events from the Google family
calendar, a notice board, and also serves as light switch for Phillips Hue
scenes.

------
area51org
You can only be _avant-garde_ for so long before you're just _garde_. But it's
still a fine tablet, and the iPad really opened up the tablet market for the
first time.

------
blueskin_
Doesn't even need an article.

Year 1: Apple fans buy it because they always buy everything apple sells.

Year 2: Some other rich people buy it, because they were shown it by apple
fans.

Year 3: People buy it because other tablets aren't as mature; people start
realising that doing normal day to day tasks on a tablet sucks.

Year 4: "Everyone has one", while at the same time most are actually shoved
into cupboards or buried under desk clutter.

Year 5: People have realised tablets are impractical. For serious tasks, a
computer is better, while for portability, a phone is better. Sales are now
driven by replacement with new models and the 2nd world consumers buying their
first, while most ipads are sitting in a cupboard or on a shelf somewhere.

~~~
ghaff
Or they're sitting on the table in their living room and they still work
perfectly fine on a daily basis. Personally I carry both my computer and a
full-size tablet (though sometimes just an e-reader) and a phone when I travel
on business. OTOH, I just take the tablet and phone on vacation. Each has
their uses even if the tablet is the least necessary of the three.

------
bsaul
The vast majority of the app i'm now developping for the ipad are professional
ones. I think the pro market still has a huge growth potential.

------
lizavp
The price points don't allow most of their customers to purchase the new
versions so quickly.

------
nostromo
iPad and iPhone were once pretty different. But with iPad mini and iPhone
biggy, they're all but the same product line now.

I'm almost certain that Apple knew a big iPhone might cannibalize some sales
of the iPad mini.

------
comrade1
I think most people don't have the need to push their iPad particularly hard
and so hardware as old as the iPad 2 is probably good enough.

Myself, I upgraded from 'The New Ipad' (whatever number that one was) to the
latest iPad Air 2 for the massive performance boost. I'm a software developer
and use my iPad for the Omni tools (OmniPlan, OmniFocus, OmniGraffle) and also
for Keynote. My older iPad was having trouble switching apps because of its
limited RAM.

BTW, if you're thinking about getting the Omni tools be prepared to spend some
money. They work best when you have them on all three devices -
laptop/desktop, iPad, and iPhone. Each has a different UI devoted to that
platform and somewhat different functionality.

Sometimes when I fly I don't even break out my laptop. I instead do planning
on my iPad using my logitech bluetooth keyboard.

