
Renewables Surpass Coal in U.S. Power Mix - philipkglass
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-25/for-first-time-ever-renewables-surpass-coal-in-u-s-power-mix
======
philipkglass
Energy Information Agency: Planned U.S. Electric Generating Unit Retirements

[https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.ph...](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_6_06)

I count 4144.6 megawatts of coal retirements planned for 2019. But this table
was last updated in April.

2000 MW of coal retirements directed this week:

"Illinois directs Vistra to retire 2 GW coal by 2020"

[https://www.utilitydive.com/news/illinois-directs-vistra-
to-...](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/illinois-directs-vistra-to-
retire-2-gw-coal-by-2020/557452/)

 _The order directs Vistra to retire 2 GW of coal generation by the end of the
year. ... The process to retire so much coal by the end of the year must begin
very soon, as Vistra must notify the Midcontinent ISO (MISO) of any intended
retirements 180 days in advance._

Two weeks ago:

"In a Surprise Announcement, Colstrip Units 1 and 2 to Close by Year-End"

[https://www.powermag.com/in-a-surprise-announcement-
colstrip...](https://www.powermag.com/in-a-surprise-announcement-colstrip-
units-1-and-2-to-close-by-year-end/)

That's another 614 MW to retire by year's end.

------
BLKNSLVR
The growing disconnect between the politics and the reality of renewables
versus (specifically) coal is troubling.

The current Australian government has been denying climate change since they
came to power in 2013. They've been talking down renewables and placing
national-security-scale importance of the role of coal in Australia's future
economic success (which I actually find a significant worry because the bottom
will drop out of the coal market sooner rather than later). Without much
support from federal government policy (but with some support from state
governments), renewables in Australia have been steadily growing in their
contribution to the overall energy generation mix at a rate higher than
expectations, such is the purely commercial justification of renewables.

And yet politics is trying to (s|t)ell a different narrative without providing
any foundational reasoning other than motherhood statements about the
importance of coal to Australia's economy.

Either politicians know more than they're letting on about the fragile state
of Australia's economy and its fundamental over-dependence on a single
mineral, or the Australian powers-that-be are over-dependent on a single
mineral for their power base.

The more politicians talk down renewables, the more they damage their
legitimacy on any other topic; the more they advertise that their speeches are
for sale.

~~~
martythemaniak
I have to admit, Australia looks particularly weird from afar. I mean, you
guys are baking under intense light for huge parts of the year and yet someone
thought "I know, let's burn some coal". I mean, at least here in Canada people
have a sort of emotional attachment to burning things for heat.

Anyway, I just find it amusing.

~~~
crispinb
It's a complicated (and somewhat regional) story. But at the root of it is
something our politicians have known for a long time, which has made (for
example) constitutional alterations almost impossible to achieve: Australians
are very, very easy to scare when it comes to any change from the status quo.
All a politician has to do is hit the 'this will affect your standard of
living' riff (whether justified or not), repeat it endlessly, and a change is
usually nixed.

Why? It would require a book. Donald Horne's 'The Lucky Country' covered some
of it. My (highly contestable) short version is that Australian culture is
preturnaturally shallow. There is nothing that holds our society together
other than material consumption. Citizens are somewhat aware of this, and are
(perhaps subconsciously) terrified of what might happen if anything threatens
our lazy prosperity. We have nothing to fall back on - no heroic national
myths, no exceptionalism, no religion, no idealism, no common ground.

~~~
BLKNSLVR
_We have nothing to fall back on - no heroic national myths, no
exceptionalism, no religion, no idealism, no common ground._

That's all true, and yet Australians are very protective of what they consider
"theirs". Maybe it's because of this historic void meaning all they've got is
their material things and social status etc.

I'll have to have a read of The Lucky Country, thanks for the reference.

------
Fjolsvith
"The clean energy industry should enjoy this moment while it lasts. One of the
main reasons coal-fired power plants produced so little in April was because
some were down for routine, springtime maintenance. Coal is forecast to return
to its perch as the second-biggest source of electricity -- after natural gas
-- as those units return to service and demand peaks this summer."

~~~
jessaustin
Two noisy signals will cross many times before overall trends dominate.

~~~
smt88
Unfortunately, I don't think "nationwide, planned maintenance" could be
considered noise in the coal-output signal.

~~~
ajross
What's your point then? The point of the article is that the renewable share
of the energy production budget is growing (and coal isn't), and the notable
data point is that "for the first time ever, renewables surpass coal". That's
the way news works. It wants a fact to hang the trend on. And both the fact
and the trend are correctly reported.

The fact that this is a local maximum doesn't say anything about the shape of
the function on either side.

------
blix
I would like to see how the renewable section breaks down in to carbon-
intensive varieties vs others.

Non-solar, non-hydro renewables make up the bulk of renewable energy, and with
the notable exceptions of wind and geothermal, many of these methods are very
dirty. Burning of waste/biomass is probably not significantly better than coal
from an emissions or pollution standpoint.

~~~
msisk6
You can go here and download a spreadsheet of Fuel Mix Reports for the ERCOT
grid:
[http://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/generation](http://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/generation)

In ERCOT wind is 2nd in generation to Gas Combined-Cycle generation (basically
jet engines running natural gas). Coal is slightly behind wind and solar and
biomass is tiny.

~~~
blix
I dug a little deeper into the EIA reports and their non-hydro renewables
category is almost 90% wind. Wind and hydro alone are almost even with coal in
April, with the other contributions being quite small.

~~~
Robotbeat
Solar (if you include non-utility solar) was about 3.5% of the total
electricity produced in April. That's actually pretty significant. Solar only
scraped 1 percent starting in 2015.

(Although I worry about the second derivative... solar's growth is not as
impressive in the last 12 months as it was the 12 months prior.)

~~~
Spooky23
Solar punches higher than its weight because it produces marginal electricity
at times of peak demand.

~~~
Gibbon1
Yeah people compare solar pricing to subsidized baseload prices. Which is
unfavorable. Instead of the more lucrative peeking plant pricing which is
higher. Often a lot higher.

