
Urban Living Might Just Survive Coronavirus - wallflower
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-15/urban-living-might-just-survive-coronavirus
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kgin
In my experience, “everyone” eventually leaves NYC. After 12 years, I have
only one friend left from when I moved here. The average tour of duty in NYC
is 5-6 years. Covid accelerated that timeline for many people, but they would
have left anyhow, eventually.

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jshaqaw
Still here 24 years later. Not everyone leaves but yes you do see waves. A lot
of people come for their 20s and then bail to go back where they came from to
settle down. Then ten years later another wave leaves for the suburbs when
their lifestyles no longer match up with urban living. And then there are
lifers like me who love it here and hope to be here forever.

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kgin
Definitely not everyone. But the percentages must be at least 90%. Maybe even
95%?

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omosubi
The exodus idea always seemed off to me - cities have the best culture, the
best services, the best educational institutions, and the best opportunities,
among other things. There's no small or even midsize town that can replicate
that.

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codyswann
I cringed when I read this comment. This is exactly why half of the United
States looks at the other half and calls them "out of touch elites." Saying
city culture is better than rural culture is such a haughty statement.

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omosubi
Yes you're right I should have said "more culture" \- not necessarily better.
But small places tend to have a singular culture with little variation. It's
great when you fit in, but if not, tough luck kid.

The other points I stand by though. A couple months ago I had an issue with my
ear and saw a world class ear doctor pretty easily. Good luck finding that in
the rural US.

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giacaglia
I was a bit skeptical at the beginning of people moving out of cities. But in
my building the occupancy rate went from 100% to 70% during the pandemic and
they are not going back. I've heard similar stories from friends that live in
apartment buildings. It might just be anecdotal, but we will see

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goatlover
Pandemics are temporary, while the attraction of city life persists over
millennia. If there any truth to such predictions, cities would have
permanently dwindled after previous pandemics. Most of which were deadlier
than Covid.

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DeonPenny
Most of the people in urban places are young. Many are completely ignoring the
lockdown orders or using parks as replacement bars.

I don't believing the max exodus even for tech. The whole idea of random ideas
sparking from random interactions is still an unappreciated benefit of
offices.

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gringoDan
Cities aren't dead. And a majority of people don't have the luxury of being
able to work remote or move away from their jobs.

There was never going to be a "mass exodus" from cities. Rather, a subset of
the people who could afford to leave and can work remote would leave. That is
driving down rents and attracting the young people who still want to live in
cities like New York.

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BobbyJo
While I don't think cities are dead, I think COVID has changed the balance of
how centralized society will be. It's added a cost that didn't exist
previously, and higher cost means lower demand.

As for the exodus, it is already happening to a degree in the Bay Area. People
may come along and fill the gap eventually, but given the new cost I don't
think demand will ever be what it used to be. Additionally, the Bay Areas
growth in the last decade was driven almost entirely by an industry who's job
are very easy to make remote, so there's an extra point against things
bouncing back to before, at least here in SV. I know New York has benefitted
from tech growth in the last decade as well, but it's still much more
diversified than SV and will likely get off a little easier.

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theklr
Love our media’s finest in speculating that it was the “end of cities” in less
than quarter. I despise how much our media depends on numbers that the blur
between gossip and news is dwindling further

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FuckButtons
If cities can survive the Black Death they will survive this.

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vmception
The reality is that people independently could observe that they simply don't
live in a nursing home.

The people that were [always] going to retreat to their at-risk parents house
and chance infecting them already did so at the beginning of shelter-in-place.

We are talking the most compliant people, the polar opposite from the "its
just a the flu" folks, they all independently observe the risk profile after
most of the vectors for dangerous spread left.

Not an endorsement. Good luck!

