
Mockups for a free, ad-supported Uber service - andrew_null
http://andrewchen.co/this-is-what-free-ad-supported-uber-rides-might-look-like-mockups-economics-and-analysis/
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ayushgta
This reminded me of the future that Black Mirror's Fifteen Million Merits
envisions for us: "Everyday activities are constantly interrupted by
advertisements that cannot be skipped or ignored without financial penalty."
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifteen_Million_Merits](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifteen_Million_Merits)

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joshstrange
I've only seen the first season of Black Mirror but I already love the show. I
work in tech so some of the "possible futures" are a little scary/humbling. I
worry about "Pay $X to skip this ad" becoming common place and similar sensors
as were in that episode that detected when the human wasn't paying attention
and waited until they opened their eyes or looked back at screen to continue.

I highly recommend that everyone check out Black Mirror, it's less of a TV
show and more of a small collection (3 episodes per season) of mini-movies
that don't really connect to each other but show possible outcomes of certain
ideas taken to the extreme.

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joshuapants
Definitely seconding that recommendation. It is fantastic how uncomfortable it
makes me feel; I usually don't get too many emotions from media.

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jjulius
I pay for Netflix and Spotify so that I don't have to deal with ads. I'll
happily continue to pay for Uber and similar services for the very same
reason.

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lnlyplnt
there's no reason we can't have both. Uber can always have an option to
disable ads if the user isn't interested in saving money.

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rprospero
I thought you were going the other way around. There's no reason that we can't
have both: Uber could charge us and still show us ads. It works for Comcast.

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krschultz
There is also heavy advertising on existing transit. Subways, buses, and taxis
in New York are plastered with ads.

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Karunamon
Inevitable? I thought engagement with advertising was going _down_ all over
the world.

How would you ad-support a full ride, anyways? A ~$20 CPI is pretty insane.

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cwyers
I don't know if I've gone under $30 for an Uber ride more than once. So yeah,
I agree, I don't see how this becomes viable.

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yojo
FWIW, if you live in San Francisco it is common for your ride to be $10-12.
With the recent Uber Pool promos it was $5 (or now $7). So at least in one
market, there are many cheap rides being taken.

That said, in-app advertising is not the kind of premium/magical experience
that has so far defined the Uber brand. That clash of clans banner looks
downright painful. I don't expect ads any time soon; it's more the kind of
move I'd expect once they're done being a growth business and shift gears into
cash extraction. Years off at the soonest.

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pbreit
Advertising works best where the marginal cost of delivering the impression is
near-zero (i.e., TV, radio, newspaper, magazine, internet search, Facebook
newsfeed, etc).

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prawn
Half-bakery: Uber rides funded by menial tasks. You're in a van heading from A
to B, while ironing shirts or folding clothes or packing boxes.

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krschultz
One of the reasons that ad supported models work is that the marginal cost of
providing software is near zero. The marginal cost of providing rides is
decidedly non-zero. I would argue that the marginal cost of a ride is going to
increase from its present cost.

* There is a price war going on and some of the providers are losing money. In the short term this will continue, but long term it will correct itself.

* I believe the regulations on company -> contractors a la Uber will increase and that will cost Uber more per ride.

* Even if you think the drivers will be replaced with self driving cars, those cars will be more expensive than present day cars.

I don't think any of that is a problem for Uber as a business charging money.
I do think it precludes ad-supported rides.

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m52go
> Free, ad-supported Uber rides are inevitable

What? Why?

\------------------

While we're at it, why not post ads along the sides of houses and apartment
buildings in the Bay Area to reduce housing costs?

Maybe if we make the ads small enough, we could fit enough ads on a single
surface to make rent free!!!

/sarc

~~~
mpeg
milliondollarapartment.com

I'm selling some ad space on my terrace at $1 per pixel, in 10x10 increments.
DPI negotiable.

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kak9
I'm fine with ads. But I see much more promise for ads before getting in car,
then after. While waiting for Uber/Lyft I check my phone non-stop. The second
I'm in the car the last app I'm opening is Uber/Lyft.

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mbesto
Some of the ideas of "why it would work" make sense, but the economics are way
off.

> _For example, targeting travelers who are arriving from the airport, to
> target them with highly personalized hotel /tour offers. Or targeting
> hardcore movie or concert-goers for their next night out._

This is the basic premise of the OP's advertising argument. Does anyone book
hotel or conferences ad hoc? Anything that is "event" based selling
opportunity is a no go, because most event organizers want high up front
guarantees of attendees (due to high fixed costs) and usually sell last minute
excess at very low margins, so paying a converted CPM at $20 (or heck even
$10) is most likely going to bring a negative return.

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WhitneyLand
I think there is a bit of a fallacy around certain business models. We're
constantly amazed at how much is free or low priced due to being ad supported
(Google), Moores Law et al (Dropbox), or strategically subsidized (Amazon).

The fallacy is that these apply to everything or that it seems easier to apply
than it actually is.

In the case of free Uber, the most I can stretch is to imagine it's possible
when the targeting gets so good that a lead is very valuable (weren't cancer
class action click throughs going for $200 at one point?). Or as part of some
partnership with another company such that other economics are at work besides
watch ad = ride free.

So not only is it not inevitable, it would require some pretty special
conditions.

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dotcoma
Remember the New Economy? No, a lot of us don't. See, that's the problem.

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sebastialonso
I've welcome Uber's business plan. Ads are not the answer for everything.
Quite the contrary, I'd argue that ads are the answer for very few problems.

Money or any monetary transactions plays two roles in these kind of business.
The unrecognized one is that it plays the role of guarantee (ideally, but in
reality is something like 'more or less'). What guarantee do I have as a
driver or as a client if I use an ad-supported billing system, which we all
know is next to crap? This is a really poorly-thought idea. Uber's strength is
in the elegance of its business model.

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yellowapple
I'd be fine with this as long as there's a way to turn this off (or better
yet, to make it something entirely opt-in and have to turn it _on_ ). I
wouldn't want to be bombarded with ads if I'm not interested in them
subsidizing my ride.

Also, is there a way to make these companies just pay _me_ to look at their
ads? It'd cut out the middlemen, and seeing how many ads I'd probably be
confronted with on a daily basis without things like AdBlock Plus, I could
probably turn it into a career if the figures in this article are accurate.

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BIair
Why do you think Google has invested so much in self-driving cars?

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nijiko
That's not free. You're spending time in exchange for goods. Time you
otherwise could save by just spending a few dollars.

The real annoyance is surge pricing.

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gojomo
"Due to extremely high demand, surge pricing is in effect. Your ride will now
cost a 30-minute timeshare presentation, by a sales agent who'll be riding
along with you."

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brianbreslin
Honestly I hate the idea of MORE ads.

Also the install driven ad market has its limits. These are all funded by
startups buying customers with their VC money.

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bgnm2000
Weird to see all this hate in the comments. Ads aren't the devil. More options
to paying for something of value is always beneficial.

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niche
An accessible business model that anyone can openly innovate on. Certainly,
this must contribute to the $24B valuation...

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codazoda
I can imagine these being offered free by companies who want an ear to talk
to. If I'm selling time shares, for example, I might want to give free rides
and tell people about it on the way. If you got a multi-thousand dollar sell
every 100 rides, maybe it's worth it.

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xb
Wow, now having looked at the mockup images under the Redirection heading,
this does really seem inevitable. Free might be a stretch, but I'd bet that
we'll see these types of ads when using rideshare services in the very near
future.

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pjc50
There are some countries where the taxi drivers will "advertise" businesses by
taxing you to them whether you asked them or not. That's pretty much the only
way you could make ad-supported taxis work.

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ghobs91
We're getting to a point where it's just services supported by ads for other
services which are supported by ads for other services and so on.

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wdr1
s/getting/returning/

This was a driving force in the dotcom crash. dotcom revenue was based on
advertising other dotcoms.

The problem with castles in the air is they always come crashing down.

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aslewofmice
I don't get the hate, I think it's a great idea. It's completely opt-in and
both sides win.

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nfoz
"Both sides win" when a consumer chooses to spend their money on gambling.
They're getting what they pay for, of their own volition.

I consider advertising to be offensive, and think it's appropriate for a
society (big or small) to control what forms of ads are allowed via law. I'd
like to see limits on what sorts of trade-offs we can make with respect to
ads, so that the life experience of a citizen need not be drowning in
advertisement.

Riding a taxi in NYC (where ads are built-in to the cabs and cannot be
stopped) is a distinctly unpleasant experience compared to elsewhere. We can
only have so many forms of transit available to the people of NYC. I would
rather we choose to remove the ads and pay for the transportation system via
direct-monetary transfer, or taxation, or some combination. _shrug_

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phdp
Hit the button on the bottom right corner of the screen. First thing I do when
I get in a taxi.

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nfoz
It doesn't turn off the screen, and it doesn't turn off the ads. It stops the
moving video and audio, and replaces it with a mostly-static blue screen with
a few ads that jump position on the screen now and then.

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mitul_45
This makes me sad. The mock-ups, I don't like them much.

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igammarays
ugh

