
Biggest drop in US fertility rate in recent history - ddlatham
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/womens-health/americans-aren-t-making-enough-babies-replace-ourselves-n956931
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rjkennedy98
The sad reality is that its the poorest and most irresponsible that are having
kids. Its the most educated that aren't.

I was recently in India and my driver was my age (under 30) with 3 kids
already. He told me his kids' favorite thing is a bucket KFC which costs his
entire day's wages.

This kind of reversal is happening everywhere. No surprise that while US,
Japan, China and Europe having shrinking native populations, Africa is
expected to go from 1 to 4 billion people this century.

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shiftpgdn
This is terrible news and shows what I think a lot of folks already knew.
Falling birthrates are generally terrible for both the economy and society as
a while.

An aside: In my social circle I know dozens of older millennial couples who
would love to have children however due to massive student loan debts & high
rent/mortgage payments the concept is simply unaffordable.

The student loan crisis is going to result in a "lost generation."

~~~
lkrubner
The solution, for your friends and for the economy, is more immigration. If
the USA could some how get itself 5 million immigrants a year (an ambitious
target) then the economy would grow so fast that your friends, lifted by the
overall economy, should have an easier time paying off their debts. And also,
higher levels of immigration would help the USA avoid any of the negative
effects of falling fertility. All 4 of my grandparents came to the USA at a
time when the USA still had open borders and I’d like to think that they and
my parents made a positive contribution.

~~~
deogeo
> when the USA still had open borders

Even under Trump, US borders are more open than ever, so the past tense is
unwarranted. Sources:

[https://edition.cnn.com/2013/11/06/us/immigration-
statistics...](https://edition.cnn.com/2013/11/06/us/immigration-statistics-
fast-facts/index.html)

[https://cis.org/Report/US-Immigrant-Population-Hit-
Record-43...](https://cis.org/Report/US-Immigrant-Population-Hit-
Record-437-Million-2016)

~~~
lkrubner
Did you read the article you linked to? The sub title includes “Overall growth
slowed”. And anyway it’s talking about the total immigrant population that’s
built up over several decades, and even if that wasn’t an issue, it’s talking
about absolute numbers rather than percentages of the population. As a percent
of the population, immigration to the USA peaked in the early 20th century,
which is when my 4 grandparents arrived. Immigration to the USA, nowadays, is
just a small trickle, compared to what it used to be.

~~~
deogeo
From the chart in my second link, 2016 immigrant population (good proxy for
yearly immigration) was 13.5%. The highest it has been since 1900 is 14.7%.
How is that a trickle?

For comparison, in 2010, China's population was 0.04% immigrant - 300-times
less, per capita, than the US!

Edit: More international comparison: in 2015, India's population was 0.5%
immigrant, Japan's 1.9%, Brazil's 0.9%, South Korea's 2.9%, Mexico's 0.9%, and
Turkey's was 3.8%.

~~~
lkrubner
So, according to your own numbers, the peak was 119 years ago. So your own
numbers demonstrate why you were wrong when you wrote “ _Even under Trump, US
borders are more open than ever_ ”

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makerofspoons
This is great news- having fewer children is one of the best ways we can
decrease our impact on the environment. Additionally, with the expected
declines in quality of life over this century due to climate change it only
seems right to have fewer children as they will likely suffer due to the
widespread famine and water crises that are expected, especially as the
American bread basket turns into a desert.

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tenebrisalietum
\- It's too expensive; health care, child care, education, and housing costs
are too high.

\- Relationships at this point in time in the US are more volatile and
disposable than they have ever been.

\- No one wants to pay child support for years if a relationship doesn't work
out.

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jakebasile
Maybe more people are realizing that not having children offers an equally
valid life experience? I chose not to have children since I'd rather spend
what time I have in life concentrating on me and my wife's happiness, not a
child that didn't choose to be brought into an uncertain world. The financial
benefits are obvious as well, despite the government subsidies on having a
child that I miss out on (and pay for).

~~~
omilu
>>>a child that didn't choose to be brought into an uncertain world

why so negative? If ever there was a time to have children it's now, and it's
only going to get better. Don't plan your life around the highly improbable
and unlikely negative events in life. Of all the children born in the history
of the world none have it so good as those born today.

~~~
makerofspoons
But this is the peak- climate change will only shrink our economy and our
living standards from here on out. Why bring a child into the world that will
never be able to achieve the same quality of life that we enjoy today? A child
born today will turn 21 right around the time the IPCC expects the climate
crisis to be ramping up, and they are historically conservative:
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-
repo...](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-
report-2040.html)

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gumby
I like that this article was normative (didn't veer off into cheering or
bemoaning the data).

As it happens I consider this good news.

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jellicle
Completely unrelated: Real wages falling in 2018:
[https://www.cbsnews.com/news/feeling-poorer-thats-because-
re...](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/feeling-poorer-thats-because-real-wages-
fell-last-year/)

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souprock
Well, do your duty. No excuses! My 12th is due at the beginning of summer.

If you are a capable software developer or better, you can afford this. It
only takes one income of that type. You might need to trim back your expenses,
but you can definitely support a dozen kids.

~~~
rjkennedy98
underrated comment

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dragonwriter
I suspect the two biggest factors here are distributional aspects of the
economy and the opioid epidemic (the latter of which has already been
established to be driving the recent drop in life expectancy and skyrocketing
suicide rate.)

On its own, the drop in fertility isn't directly worrying (if I'm right about
it's causes, _they_ are, though), but it does make it a particularly bad time
to be making an anti-inflammatory drive; the economic consequences of an aging
society are something you should want to mitigate.

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momentmaker
"The rent is too damn high."

