
Ask HN: Why is Italy hit so hard with the Covid-19 virus? - danielovichdk
Why is it Italy that is hit hardest right after China?
======
sfusato
1\. You can't find it if you don't look for it. Italy did more tests than the
rest of Europe combined. Source as of 2nd of March (a bit old by now, but
hey):
[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/)

2\. Italy was the first country in Europe to ban direct flights with China.

3\. Really took some hard, unpopular decisions regarding quarantine and
containment. Lombardy and Veneto are the main engine of the country.

4\. Together with Japan, has one of the oldest, age wise, populations on the
planet, the most fragile in this moment (reason for the high mortality rate).

5\. Schools and university closed until April. Entire provinces will be in
quarantine (no entry/exit unless for urgent reasons) .etc.

I hope other countries in Europe won't be in a worse situation in a few weeks
time due to the delayed start they had. I think Italy did the best by
searching as wide as possible even if this wrongly painted them as the source
of the spreading in Europe. But, in the long run, it was for the best.

------
DrNuke
Because the North of the country is as productive as Germany and one of the
most used East-West passage route. Add to this the highest number of tests in
Western Europe, which are free and covered by the national health system, and
a lot asymptomatic cases. Still, today’s numbers are really worrying, with the
government measures still unable to contain the spread and northern hospitals
now going into real pressure.

~~~
lainga
The high number of tests is the key. Italy has a high number of reported
cases. But that is not the same as actual incidence of the disease. As an
illustrative example: is it really probable that nobody in central Asia has
the disease?

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znpy
1\. Italy did a lot more testing

2\. We only know about china's infection rate what china wants us to know.
given that there is no free press there, anyone talking about coronavirus in
china should take china-provided information with a grain of salt.

3\. as soon as other countries start properly testing, they'll get "hit" too.

------
ramblerman
I’m not sure it is. Look up tests per capita. As of March 2nd Italy was at 386
and USA was at 1

To look at found cases and assume that is a reflection of reality at this
point is wishful thinking

~~~
Someone
They also have more reported deaths than other countries that aren’t China
(233 so far). I don’t think the USA or other countries in Europe significantly
underreport those.

------
italianquestion
There is something weird going on. There are only ~4000 confirmed cases in
Italy but people in multiple countries returning back from Italy bring the
virus with them.

How they manage to find these infected people out millions of Italians?

Can somebody explain this to non-virologist?

~~~
thinkingemote
I'm also puzzled. Maybe there is a super spreader in the airport?

------
anotheryou
Judging by this graph (log scale... ):
[https://preview.redd.it/bcvp26b3g4l41.png?width=1055&format=...](https://preview.redd.it/bcvp26b3g4l41.png?width=1055&format=png&auto=webp&s=268968c8b877888aa6b964f123d20f7ca6d946a8)

It just got hit the earliest so it's already that bad. It will hit more at the
same strength.

source:
[https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fekqib/daily_gra...](https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fekqib/daily_graphic_20200306_development_of_case/)

~~~
fuzzfactor
Looks like it's exponential growth and Italy just started early.

------
eanthy
Because italian/spanish love to kiss each other as a salute and hug and all
kinds of physical contact as opposed to english for example who wouldn't.
Hence virus is easier to spread there.

~~~
gbrindisi
This is ludicrous. If that was true then why Spain is not (yet) hit as hard?

(Am I on reddit?)

~~~
eanthy
it's among the hardest hit ones, there's a reason why more developed countries
don't get it as bad

------
superflit
Because of Hand-to-Hand contact.

Have you ever seen Italians speaking?

They speak and use their hands to support the talk, doing explanations and
emphasis on hands gestures.

As they speak saliva goes in the air and land in the hands and as they touch
other surfaces contaminating it.

~~~
gbrindisi
When you wrote on your profile page "Just a simple guy..." you were not
kidding.

~~~
superflit
I am glad you can detect sarcasm.

From Trento with love!

------
streetcat1
Because Italy economy is driven by tourism, which means that it cannot ban
flight from china (or other places).

Hence the virus has a chance to migrate to different locations.

Also, tourists, tend to travel (a lot) within the country, which means that
the virus rapidly migrates inside the country.

And, it also cannot mandate complete public shutdown, which gave the virus a
chance to start a community spread.

Once a community spreads starts, this is effectively a denial of service
attack on the health care system, and this is what happening now.

~~~
dotcoma
Actually, Italy banned direct flights from China more than a month ago, well
before the outbreak, and took harsh criticism from China.

[https://www.aerospace-technology.com/news/italy-israel-
ban-f...](https://www.aerospace-technology.com/news/italy-israel-ban-flights-
china/)

~~~
netsharc
Didn't China ban their tourist groups from departing?

But that happened a while after the outbreak became well known, to speculate
an answer to the Ask HN question, maybe there was a tourist group from Wuhan
that got many Italians infected.

A German blogger (fefe) is also asking if the Chinese "sweatshops" in Italy
might have something to do with it (article about these textile factories:
[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/02/italys-
biggest...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/02/italys-biggest-
chinese-community-clashes-with-police-near-florence) )

~~~
dotcoma
As far as I know, China stopped flights only from the Wuhan and the other main
cities that were affected; Italy stopped all flights from China.

Did the problem originate from Chinese tourists in Italy? Two cases in Rome,
as far as I know, about a month ago; both were treated and have recovered.

There are no major problems in the city of Prato; also, as far as I know,
there are no large Chinese communities in the areas where things are really
bad.

