
Moore's Law Is Not Ending Soon and the Reason May Surprise You - toddh
http://highscalability.com/blog/2020/2/19/moores-law-is-not-ending-soon-and-the-reason-may-surprise-yo.html
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SQueeeeeL
For some reason the clickbait title ender

"and the XYZ May Surprise You"

Bothers the hell out of me. I don't know why, it just feels so disengaged of
my time. Makes me feel like they think I'm a child. Is there any research as
this?

~~~
ducttape12
At this point, I assume any article that relies on click bait titles are
lacking in depth.

"Will this vegetable cure cancer?" No, it will not.

"This new productivity hack may surprise you!" Chances are it's just some
repacking of some old idea and won't surprise me.

~~~
thorwasdfasdf
A specific vegetable may not cure cancer but staying away from Class 1
carcinogens certainly will prevent it: things like Asbestos, Plutonium and
Processed Meat.

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pier25
Watch the interview, you won't regret it:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nb2tebYAaOA](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nb2tebYAaOA)

~~~
petermcneeley
I found this interview to be very entry level.

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rwallace
> A modern transistor is 1000 x 1000 x 1000 atoms.

Um? A silicon atom is something like 0.2 nanometers. 1000 times that is 200
nanometers. We passed that a long time ago. Am I missing something?

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deepnotderp
We can get more transistors by going 3D, but what about the heat? The real
tragedy has been the degradation (although not yet death) in Dennard Scaling.

And even then Landauer's limit will begin to rear it's head around
10,000-100,000X lower power. Reversible computing is an option, but does not
cover I/O and will furthermore set us back in performance and transistor
efficiency.

~~~
NotSammyHagar
Had to look up those two terms, from Wikipedia:

Dennard scaling, also known as MOSFET scaling, is a scaling law based on a
1974 paper co-authored by Robert H. Dennard, after whom it is named.[1]
Originally formulated for MOSFETs, it states, roughly, that as transistors get
smaller, their power density stays constant, so that the power use stays in
proportion with area; both voltage and current scale (downward) with length.

Landauer's principle is a physical principle pertaining to the lower
theoretical limit of energy consumption of computation. ...

At 20 °C ..., the Landauer limit represents an energy of approximately 0.0175
eV, or 2.805 zJ. Theoretically, room‑temperature computer memory operating at
the Landauer limit could be changed at a rate of one billion bits per second
with energy being converted to heat in the memory media at the rate of only
2.805 trillionths of a watt (that is, at a rate of only 2.805 pJ/s). Modern
computers use millions of times as much energy per second.

[But there's a limit to how far we can improve that leading to hitting it
around 2050].

~~~
deepnotderp
Modern computers using millions more is a little misleading, since a lot of
that goes to architectural overhead and other things than single bit
computations.

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ajuc
The podcast this was based on is brilliant BTW:
[https://lexfridman.com/ai/](https://lexfridman.com/ai/)

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zeristor
I thought the main issue was now heat dissipation.

