

Android (and Windows 7 phones) leads to too much hardware choice - Kylekramer
http://www.marco.org/2730711751

======
51Cards
Nahhhhh... this is like saying "We have too many car manufacturers... we all
need to narrow down and settle on a couple key models"

While we as tech-heads tend to follow all of the market, the author is right,
most users don't. But to me this is what naturally focuses the choice. "I had
a Motorola, show me only those because I liked it" "I am on ATT, I'm not
moving, show me only ATT phones" "I want a big screen, I have poor eyesight,
make it big"

The average customer even without being a tech-head knows what they like and
will automatically self-limit their choices to a manageable field. The fact
that they may still have 2-4 devices that fit their general spec is a big plus
for Android, not a detriment because they still have choice. It is WE, those
of us who follow every possible model launch that start comparing specs and
plans and proto-types. I do admit this does become a little frustrating for
us... but never forget, WE are not the bulk of consumers.

~~~
thushan
Great points that you've made. One thing though, I would argue that we've seen
this issue in action: "Nahhhhh... this is like saying "We have too many car
manufacturers... we all need to narrow down and settle on a couple key models"

That is essentially what the reborn GM has done - it paired down a wide range
of models by their brands into just a handful. If the recovery of the company
is any indication, consumers responded well to a whittled down set of choices
over fragmentation set.

~~~
51Cards
True, but I would offer the difference between "Too many models" and "too many
models at a manufacturer (or in this case, per OS)".

GM fragmented their product line too much to offset the manufacturing and R&D
costs to support all of those models. Narrowing focus was more to save their
own skin than to make the consumer's life and easier. I would guess (this is
purely off the top of my head) that the number of GM's sold hasn't changed
that much... but what has changed is GM's profit margin per model, and thus
cost savings allow cost cuts to the consumer which may have increased sales.
HTC would have the same problem if they produced 2-3x the number of models
they do now.

To me the original article reads more like "cars with four wheels have too
many choices... one company needs to make four wheel ones, one needs to make
two wheel ones, and one needs to make unicycles". That's the jist I got from
it anyhow.

------
rlmw
This article is full of assertions without actually providing evidence behind
them. For example he makes the statement: "since then, very few non-geeks know
about individual Android handsets". He doesn't cite any surveys of consumers
that back this up. Its all very well making these assertions, but when they
are so lacking in evidence its hard to trust this article, its reasoning or
its conclusions.

On the other hand market share figures offer some evidence to the contrary.
Consumers are clearly buying Android phones - more so than any other platform.
Developers are clearly writing programs for Android phones - the market has
less programs than the iphone app store but its growing incredibly fast, and
its a clearly ahead of Windows Phone 7, Blackberry and Nokia's efforts.

In the tablet marketplace there has been clear demand shown for the Samsung
Galaxy Tab - despite the fact that the Android software isn't even tablet
ready. In other words people are buying a specific Android device for its
hardware - the exact antithesis of the argument in this blog post.

I find it really hard to believe that this article is motivated by anything
other than the author's liking of Apple products. Thats fine - its his
prerogative to take those stances - except that I find articles promoting
opinion that don't back them up with any real evidence to be incredibly
unconvincing and pretty much a waste of time. Its a real shame that this got
voted onto the front page of HN.

------
ryandvm
Also, all the different MP3 stores really make my head spin. Why cant we all
just buy music and video from iTunes? Give me a break. I bet walking down the
cereal isle at the grocery store is a nightmare for Marco.

This, like all of Gruber's work, is pure brand loyalty. Look - I get that a
lot of people _really_ like Apple products. I own several - they're slick. But
at the end of the day, Apple just puts way too much effort into insisting that
you operate entirely within its ecosystem. And it makes me uncomfortable using
their products.

Oh, you want an iPhone? Cool. Of course you'll have to use iTunes. Oh, and if
you're using iTunes you really should have a Mac because iTunes on Windows is
awful. And if you want to play it on a stereo you'll need one with a Apple
licensed connector. Oh, and if you want games on it just head over to our App
Store. And if you want to put your photos online, you'll just need a $99
Mac.com subscription...

No thanks. I'll take choice any day.

~~~
CountSessine
_Also, all the different MP3 stores really make my head spin. Why cant we all
just buy music and video from iTunes? Give me a break. I bet walking down the
cereal isle at the grocery store is a nightmare for Marco._

Well, I hate to quibble, and I mostly agree with what you're saying, but if
you remember back to the last time that Apple had to negotiate it's contracts
with Universal, Warner, Sony BMG, etc, the music studios weren't exactly
trying to negotiate the iTunes music store's prices _down_. In fact, they were
asking for a lot of fairly consumer-unfriendly stuff, like the option to jack-
up the price of singles in the first few weeks of release, and more album
'bonus tracks' (ie less a-la-carte song pricing).

In fact, it's Universal et. al. that own the rights to all this music. Do they
really have to sell any of it in the iTunes music store? Would they have to
sell any of it in the iTunes music store if the retail online market for music
was split evenly between a multiplicity of mp3 stores? Why don't they tell
Apple to take their $1.25 price point and shove it? The answer to that
question is the key to understanding the digital music market.

------
Kylekramer
Hardware diversity in an OS is almost never a flaw. Even Apple knows this:
look at the iPod line. The simple fact of the matter is no one device is going
to fit all the needs of all users, whether those needs are real or just
perceived. I agree with Marco on a lot of things and admire his work, but he
does have a weird blind spot when it comes to Android (like his opinion that
it is going to be much less relevant now that there is a Verizon iPhone).

The one device model does have its positives, of course. But the advantages
are either too niche or too minor to matter. Fragmentation is the favorite
knock, but outside of the tech world not that many care. A significant
percentage of iOS users don't even update cause they don't realized they can.
Software is somewhat easier to develop, but the advantages are overstated
here. Accessories are nice, but those are post sale for the most part. Very,
very few people buy phones based on a case or a dock. But even if people hate
choosing from similar devices, the manufacturer will win in the long run if
they have a plurality of the choices. And in the end, whether or not that is
good for the customers, that is what matters.

------
Zak
All that choice, and yet there isn't a GSM model with high specs, a 5-row
keyboard and a front-facing camera. Some of the author's points are valid, but
ultimately I think the market will be better served by _more_ choice than
what's currently available, not less.

A problem, as I see it is that there are so many nearly-identical devices out
there. Making a device just like the one the other guy is selling a lot of may
be an easy recipe for profit, but it's a bit lame. Manufacturers showing a bit
of originality might help them get ahead more than "me-too" devices.

------
nickpp
I think the accessory issue is really understated. Not sure how much it
matters to others, but to the subset of people I know, it is quite an
incentive to go for Apple.

I have a tremendous amount of available add-ons for my iPhone and iPad:
speakers, docks, cases, chargers. They are compatible with my car, my A/V
receiver and my bedside stereo/alarm clock.

Some of these I bought myself, some I got as gifts from family and friends
knowing I have the iDevices.

With Android? Not so much...

~~~
bane
> With Android? Not so much...

Headphone jacks are amazing things. Perhaps none of your equipment has one?

(usb is also quite cool)

One thing the iPod connector does have going for it is a better 2-way
interface. But in practice most devices just give me an optional, equivalent
screen, inches away from the iDevice anyways. It's like a wireless remote for
a car stereo.

------
bgruber
"But since then, very few non-geeks know about individual Android handsets.
They change so frequently, and are so numerous, that there’s never much of an
opportunity for a meaningful buzz to generate around any of them. Nobody’s
lining up to buy them. CNN’s not covering their launches. Consumer Reports
isn’t vigorously testing their antennas. The Daily Show isn’t making jokes
about them. So the mass market doesn’t really respond to individual devices."

These problems are for Android the BRAND, not Android itself. For ~15 years
the cellphone industry did just fine without people knowing/caring about
specific models (with a few minor exceptions). You walk into the store, look
at what's available and pick what you like, just like with PCs themselves. I'm
not really sold on the idea that Google cares all that much about the Android
brand. It is in their interest that phones become generic internet-consumption
devices, just like PCs have.

I do agree that the paradox of choice thing can be a problem for purchasers,
but ultimately the market seems to think that it's not enough of a problem.
Every industry eventually moves to 50 varieties of spaghetti sauce, because
even the most popular variety doesn't appeal to millions of potential
customers.

Finally, this: "The manufacturers and carriers have very little incentive to
maintain the software on devices that are still relatively new and under
contract, because they want everyone buying the newest ones instead."

What? Even if they didn't want everyone buying the newest one instead, what
incentive do they have? The way the industry works now you are basically
married to your phone for 2 years, like it or not.

~~~
bane
_But since then, very few non-geeks know about individual Android handsets.
They change so frequently, and are so numerous, that there’s never much of an
opportunity for a meaningful buzz to generate around any of them. Nobody’s
lining up to buy them. CNN’s not covering their launches. Consumer Reports
isn’t vigorously testing their antennas. The Daily Show isn’t making jokes
about them. So the mass market doesn’t really respond to individual devices._

I thought this just made him sound impossibly old - as in some elderly man,
sitting out on his front porch, complaining about all the craziness the kids
these days are involved in. "Nobody gets dressed up to fly or go to the movies
these days! All these crazy restaurants, whatever happened to just a diner and
a bar! How'm I supposed to know about these new fangled color TVs! My wireless
Marconi radio never talks about 'em! What do you mean Eisenhower isn't
President anymore!"

------
protomyth
I would actually go the other way on this one. I really think we have too few
truly different mobile devices. Ignoring the OS, we seem to be in the chase-
the-iphone phase after a while in the chase-the-blackberry. It seems like we
are missing true differences. I was encouraged by some stuff at CES (mobile
phone is brains of laptop), but I really am looking for some wildly different
form factors.

~~~
jokermatt999
Not that it's anything new or radically different, but the choice of a
physical keyboard is a nice difference in form factor between the iPhone and
Android. It was certainly a deciding factor for me. Still, it seems like the
reason for the typical form factor's success is that it just makes sense. Wide
enough screen for occasional video watching, but not too large so that it's
awkward to hold. Buttons down the bottom, because they're out of the way, but
still easy to hit. Notification bar up top to show what's new, because that's
where menu bars typically are.

Do you have any particular ideas in mind when you're discussing wildly
different?

~~~
protomyth
I am intrigued by the idea of having something modular. I think plugging a
phone into a case to get a notebook or tablet is pretty cool. I guess I want a
block of cpu/memory/storage to be my portable home (kinda like some people
used their iPods for) that had docks and cases to become something else.
Probably a pipe dream, but it would be interesting.

Or maybe something designed with bluetooth as a known instead of an option.

------
jawee
Couldn't the same argument be made, even more so, with other areas of the
technology market? When is the last time there has been a _must_ have entry
level digital camera? Or that one laptop that everyone has to have (although
certain models stand out, keep in mind that the average consumer is spending
in the under $800 range). Even devices where this is less of a choice, such as
with iPods, there is still a range for what different feature choices people
want, as well as other moderately successful devices. I'm just not
understanding the point... walking into a Best Buy to get a gadget has always
been this way.

~~~
jokermatt999
If you really want a good example of where there is "too much choice" (in my
opinion of course), look at video cards. Unless you follow hardware, it's very
difficult to differentiate between models, or even have any sense of
comparison. It's all hidden behind strange model numbers which seem to have no
correlation between features.

(Well, either that, or I'm an idiot who just doesn't understand video cards.)

------
kbob
This fragmentation meme doesn't even pass the laugh test. So why does it keep
coming up?

My best hypothesis is that people who're invested in the iPhone are trying to
rationalize their desire to stay on Apple's platform. Is there a better
explanation?

------
guywithabike
I think HN commenters are _really_ missing Marco's point. He's talking about
what's beneficial for the company, not what's beneficial for consumers.

Are any Android manufacturer's making as much of a killing as Apple is right
now, globally? I'm talking about profits -- not unit sales.

~~~
guywithabike
The diversity can be bad for consumers, too. Marco makes a great point: How
many 6 month old Android phones are never going to see an Android update? How
many Android phones available right now will never get Honeycomb?

With an iPhone, you know you're going to get iOS updates for at least a few
years, to the extent that the hardware can support various features. I've got
an iPhone 3GS that's over a year and a half old and I'm running the latest and
greatest iOS.

(Honest question: How many Android phones released in the summer of 2009 --
Android 1.5 days -- can now run Android 2.3?)

~~~
bryanlarsen
Rumours are that the iPhone 3G (which was the top model until the summer of
2009) won't be able to run iOS 4.3. If Google supports Android 2.4 on the
Nexus One they'll support it with upgrades longer than Apple supported the 3G.

~~~
YooLi
Nexus One was released Jan. 5 2010 - <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nexus_One>

iPhone 3G was released Jun. 9 2008 - <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iphone_3g>

How are you doing your math?

~~~
bryanlarsen
Sorry, I got fixated on "summer 2009" date in the original comment and got
confused. My original point stands in much reduced form: A Nexus 1 should have
a similar support period to an Apple phone. Better? probably not.

------
dualboot
"People hate choosing between similar things. The more choice we have at the
time of purchase, the more stress we feel making the choice, and the less
satisfied we feel afterward because we’re worried that we made the wrong
choice."

That is so very true. When you get an iPhone you have the comfort of knowing
that the iPhones in Japan aren't better. The iPhones with the carrier on the
other side of hte fence aren't better.

You have the best iPhone (presuming you have the latest) available. It's
consistent and treats the hardware as a platform in addition to the software
which makes sense with a cellphone.

The people who buy a phone for it's operating system are a minority. They're
shooting themselves in the foot by trying to make the cellphone market like
the 1980's PC market.

------
vsiva68
This paradox of choice is very real.

The situation is no different than with laptops. You can expect certain
quality standards out of Macbook's. You might be able to get something far
cheaper, with more features from others, but there is clearly a market for
Macbooks..

I don't know if users of Android care whether Android is open or not. Now
there will always be geeks who will run nothing by Linux or *BSD, but most
others don't care.

------
Tichy
Most of these phones could be weeded out by simple criteria (like no updates
to recent Android versions). Unfortunately it is difficult to get that
information among all the noise.

~~~
booticon
You also can't predict whether the phones you're considering will get updated
to newer versions of Android. I got burned by this when Froyo came out _three
months_ after I got a phone, and the manufacturer would not update it.

~~~
seanx
Nearly every phone gets updated to newer Androids, just often not by the
manufacturer. <http://www.xda-developers.com/> is your friend.

------
makeramen
It's somewhat true. If you listen to Barry Schwartz's TED talk "the paradox of
choice," he cites a few studies that show if you give a consumer too many
choices, there's a better chance they won't buy anything at all. I think
that's a definite advantage Apple has had over its competitors: the product
lines are clear and simple.

link to talk:
[http://www.ted.com/talks/barry_schwartz_on_the_paradox_of_ch...](http://www.ted.com/talks/barry_schwartz_on_the_paradox_of_choice.html)

------
m0nastic
I think choice is somewhat of a red herring (although I do recommend reading
"The Paradox of Choice")

Speaking for myself, I don't really care about "choice" (it falls slightly
higher than "openness" as a criteria for selection; although both are pretty
much at the bottom).

Ultimately, there is either a phone that meets my needs; or one that doesn't.
A choice between one phone which doesn't meed my requirements, and thirty
phones which don't meet my requirements isn't much of a choice.

So I don't think the fact that there are a multitude of Android phones is
inherently good or bad. I agree on the accessory issue, although I'm not sure
how much that really effects people's purchasing decisions (I for one probably
wouldn't buy a phone based on the docks available for it).

I do think that the large accessory ecosystem is a big benefit for Apple, but
probably not as big as Marco postulates.

Although in that sense, I just saw a post about this today:
<http://www.akaipro.com/synthstation49> and I'm incredibly excited about
buying it (and wonder when we'll start to see similar things for Android show
up).

------
pkulak
As far as I'm concerned, there have been two Android phones: the Nexus One and
Nexus S.

~~~
bryanlarsen
Don't forget the ADP-1.

------
revorad
commodity (noun) /kəˈmɒd.ə.ti/ Undifferentiated goods characterized by a low
profit margin, as distinguished from branded products.

------
Tichy
Could it be that most of those phones are actually OK, so that one could pick
after other criteria, like design?

------
trotsky
Some people made this argument about the Bell system breakup in 1974. Doubt
they still feel that way.

------
sdh
I'm more worried about developing mobile apps for all these different phones.
Minor differences between hardware profiles and firmware versions can lead to
major headaches for an app developer. If that concern leads to fewer apps,
then it sucks for the consumer.

------
mcknz
Seemed to work out ok for Wintels.

~~~
dualboot
But with computers you have a keyboard, monitor.. eventually mouse.

These things were pretty universal and even carried over from machine to
machine.

Even then the marketing was more about the OEM branding than Microsoft for a
long time.

------
bane
And Apple products lead to too little. Am I destined to forever be stuck in
Nokia land?

(really, is it too much to ask for an SD card slot and a standard usb
connector on an iDevice?)

------
jsz0
The one strange thing about the overload of Android phones is there seems to
be very little choice in the <4" touchscreen only model category. I'm not sure
if the handset makers are conceding this market to the iPhone or they just
don't sell very well?

------
artsrc
400 models of cars would have a problem if they could not standardize on a
single kind of road or petrol.

The accessory issue is about a standard connector and protocol.

There are heaps of iPods and iPhones, but one connector and protocol.

------
thomasknowles
Too much, too little, death of one thing, year of another. Anyone else getting
tired of some of these pointless opinion threads?

------
shimi
Since when in the USA there is a thing of too much choice?

------
ergo98
An alternating circus of asymco, marco, and daring fireball all trying to spin
everything in the iPhone's favor, each referencing each other as moral
support.

~~~
GHFigs
The post references neither Asymco or Daring Fireball. It's almost like you
commented on something you didn't read, but I know that can't be the case
because that would be childish.

~~~
ergo98
No, it's like I've paid attention to the various posts by Asymco, Daring
Fireball, and Marco over the past couple of months. I fully anticipate Gruber
will link to Marco's piece, Asymco will add some sort of twisted perversion of
data that supports it, and so on.

I read the piece and thought it added nothing that hasn't been debated and
discussed countless times before.

Yet, the market has spoken, hasn't it? A year ago such was the argument about
why Android could never succeed, with so many confusing choices and options
against the iPhone's simplicity. Android has done pretty good for itself in
spite of that, I suppose. In fact I thought the current angle was " _of
course_ Android would do well with so many handsets and so many options".

~~~
Pewpewarrows
I agree, it's been pretty amusing watching and reading the re-structuring and
re-wording of arguments on the Apple circle-jerk of blogs this past year.

It's similar to the current "browser wars." We're all over-privileged and
spoiled to have 4 (soon to be 5) standards-compliant, fast, extend-able
browsers to choose from on any platform we want. It's basically just nit-
picking and personal preference at this point.

It's the same way with smartphones now. We have dozens of handsets that come
in a bunch of different flavors (Android, iOS, Windows Phone) that are for the
most part very well designed. We're just as spoiled with them as we are with
browsers right now. Isn't it enough that we can all choose our favorite
equally-awesome version of a smartphone without having to trash the slightly
different competitor and write dissertation after dissertation over-analyzing
how the other will fail or is bad (when clearly they are succeeding and a
large portion of the market enjoys the product)?

Marco, Gruber, and co: you can stop. We get it, you like Apple. Good for you,
not everyone else does. Isn't there something more productive you can be doing
with your time?

~~~
martythemaniak
>Marco, Gruber, and co: you can stop. We get it, you like Apple. Good for you,
not everyone else does. Isn't there something more productive you can be doing
with your time?

No they don't, and I'm not being facetious. They are all Apple Tech Writers,
not Tech Writers. They don't understand or care much about technology beyond
Apple, so if they didn't glowing pro-Apple articles, they wouldn't have much
to write about.

