
Peter Thiel – Full Speech – 2016 Republican National Convention - larryfole
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTJB8AkT1dk
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internaut
My explanation is here:

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12884413](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12884413)

FWIW I predicted Brexit and Trump. I made 4 predictions this year.

1\. Irish same sex marriage would succeed. 2\. Brexit would win (with
possibility of sabotage). 3\. Trump would win the presidency (with a high
chance of being assassinated). 4\. Civil conflict would break out in Europe
(2016-2017).

I'd like to be wrong about the 4th, but that's the one I'm most sure of.

~~~
pmoriarty
What convinced you to make these predictions? And how far ahead of these
events did you predict them?

~~~
internaut
> What convinced you to make these predictions?

I think this because I believe a great deal of what we call society is
cyclical. We're at a point where I think many old ideas are about to be
revived.

Talking explicitly about the last prediction will probably get me a hellban
but my email is in my profile if you wanted me to elaborate.

> And how far ahead of these events did you predict them?

This is rough, I didn't keep a notebook for them. To do it properly like Scott
Alexander I'd have to state a probability and some limit so a failed
prediction couldn't be weaseled into a 'prophesy'. To the best of my memory it
is this:

In the case of Brexit, at least six months, maybe a year. In the case of
Trump, close to half a year. In the case of the same sex marriage, as soon as
I heard it proposed, I don't remember when that was. And the civil conflict
prediction is about 1-2 years old. Those are highly random difficult to
predict events. I think I would have put it into a 'Five Year Plan', and 2016
would be Year 3, so that's 2 years 2 months to go. I increased my confidence
when I found out the CIA had the same prognosis on civil conflict in Europe
for the same time period.

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mankash666
Great year for Thiel. First Gawker, then Trump.

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presty
i prefer his most recent talk and q&a [https://youtu.be/ob-
LJqPQEJ4](https://youtu.be/ob-LJqPQEJ4)

