
Silicon Valley’s “megacommute” even worse than L.A - cx1000
http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/11/02/job-boom-intensifies-traffic-and-housing-woes/
======
Schweigi
Better public transport would solve a lot of those problems. For such a dense
area the current offering is a joke.

I live in San Mateo and work in the south bay. By car it takes me 35-40min
(with no traffic) but with public transport it would be over 2h. After six
there isn't even any option available to go back home. No surprise that so
many people choose a car to commute.

~~~
jbob2000
Public transit works best for young healthy people. If you have kids or move a
little slowly due to health or old age, public transit is a straight up no-go.
And certain jobs necessitate a car. You won't convince a salesman to carry a
projector, screen, and a box of pamphlets on the bus and train.

And this says nothing of "comfort", which along with Time, is a rare commodity
for working people. I'm not sitting on a rough seat crammed next to 5 other
people for 2 hours. I'll take my car, with its 8-way adjustable seat, climate
control and cup holders, thank-you-very-much. I'd rather sit and wait in
traffic in my car than stand outside in the rain or snow waiting for a bus.

And on top of that, transit for me would be about $400/month. A car lease,
insurance, and gas per month would be about $600. I will happily pay $200 more
per month for the massively increased mobility and comfort that a car
provides. The value proposition for public transit really sucks.

~~~
CaptSpify
This is always so weird to me. These problems have already been pretty much
solved in other countries, but the US always thinks it's a special snowflake.
Public transport works pretty well for non-young healthy people in other
countries.

~~~
jbob2000
The US and Canada are geographically huge. Take the problems the other
countries solved and multiply it by 10. The climate here is also different.
When was the last time a hurricane or tornado hit Europe? Or an ice storm? Or
major snow storm? What about a heat wave over 100F?

Public transit is not resilient to these things. Our streetcars shut down in
Toronto during heavy snowfall because they'll derail if the tracks aren't
clear. Ice gets into the concrete supporting the tracks and they need to
constantly be repaired because of that.

Asphalt roads are cheap and easy to maintain. Hell, you don't even need
asphalt, cars are perfectly capable of driving on dirt or gravel. You can
drive a car on shitty, broken asphalt, but you can't drive a train on broken
tracks. There is a resiliency to road and cars that public transit just
doesn't have.

~~~
callmeal
But we're talking about Silicon Valley - which is smaller than most European
cities. And cities there handle snowstorms and heat waves just fine (or just
as well as American cities). For that matter - when was the last time a
hurricane or a snowstorm hit the Bay area?

~~~
jwhitlark
The SF Bay Area is 7000 square miles. London is 600, Paris is 40.

------
moultano
Literally everyone I know in the bay area who doesn't already own a house is
considering leaving.

As extreme as the shortage of housing is the shortage of childcare. 150 person
waitlists for 50 kid day-cares are common.

~~~
cx1000
When I visited the Seattle area, locals were complaining about all the Bay
Area people moving up there and driving the rent up. I wonder how big a
problem that might become for places that are appealing to Bay Area residents
like Seattle, Austin, Denver, etc.

~~~
brogrammernot
It'll be a large problem. The issue is that the concept of ownership is
changing in the "millennial" generation. There isn't a drive to own a car, a
house or other large purchases so the concept of paying $200-500/more a month
for leasing an apartment isn't as cumbersome as it was for the past
generation.

So as the technology folks from other cities move into these newly labeled
"tech hubs" they'll drive the rent up because the costs seem so much lower
than they actually are. It's a hard concept for some reason to grasp that they
can pay $1500/month for a 1 bedroom in other tech cities that's $2800/month in
SV/SF. However, what they don't realize is that it used to be $1100/month but
landlords take advantage of the fact that $400/more/month is not an issue for
someone coming from SF/SV

~~~
intopieces
>There isn't a drive to own a car, a house or other large purchases

It's not that millennials don't want to own these things, it's that they see
them as out of reach. It's an uncomfortable economic reality that gets
abstracted into "kids these days just want different things" like they're
hoarding stockpiles of money and refusing to spend it unless the thing-makers
read their minds.

~~~
cmdrfred
I believe that the truth is somewhere in between. I'm 27 and own my own home.
Where I live it's actually more economical to own if you can accept living
outside of the city. Many people my age refuse to make that compromise and
instead pay a few hundred extra a month to rent 15 minutes closer to the city.

~~~
intopieces
Unfortunately, the truth is not somewhere in between.

"The drop in homeownership is largely due to a delay in homebuying by the
millennials, who have the lowest ownership rate of their age group in history.
Millennials are not only burdened by student loan debt, but they have also
delayed life choices like marriage and parenthood, which are the primary
drivers of homeownership. "

[http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/28/millennials-cause-
homeownersh...](http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/28/millennials-cause-
homeownership-rate-to-drop-to-lowest-level-since-1965.html)

Can Millennials Afford The American Dream?

[http://www.forbes.com/sites/kerrizane/2016/01/24/will-
millen...](http://www.forbes.com/sites/kerrizane/2016/01/24/will-millennials-
afford-the-american-dream/#6f09feeb7379)

~~~
cmdrfred
As I said it actually costs less money to own where I live. With FHA loans
very little capital is required up front. You just don't get to live within
the city proper and instead have about a 15 - 20 minute commute. I've spoken
to dozens of young professionals (most of whom make much more than I) about
this, they'd like to own in center city but that isn't happening so they rent.

I'm a highschool dropout who has no familial support. If I can do it so can
someone with a college degree and better access to opportunities as long as
they are willing to make the same sacrifices.

------
noahlt
Fortunately, the election's just around the corner, and if you'd like to help
solve these problems, you can do so with your ballot.

[http://www.sfyimby.org/endorsements-
nov-2016](http://www.sfyimby.org/endorsements-nov-2016) Is a good pro-housing
voter guide for San Franciscans.

------
js_what_
Interesting that there is a claim of ~5% mega commuters in bay area. The 2012
census bureau study (using 2006-2010 data) had that number at about 2% [1].

On that note, you'll see that traffic/commute is worse than L.A. in many
cities. I think L.A. just gets the publicity but there are a lot of people
around the country suffering in silence.

[1] [https://www.census.gov/hhes/commuting/files/2012/Paper-
Poste...](https://www.census.gov/hhes/commuting/files/2012/Paper-
Poster_Megacommuting%20in%20the%20US.pdf)

~~~
bagacrap
percent "megacommutes" is a pretty odd metric. LA is "leading" in total time
wasted in traffic[1].

[1] [http://inrix.com/scorecard/](http://inrix.com/scorecard/)

------
orian
Oh, from the european perspective, the SV housing / transport seems little...
weird.

If you look at urban design & public transport it's amazing how well it works
despite all obstacles.

Public transport doesn't make sense in low population density areas and wide
road make the distances even bigger. I mean, some US cities managed to realize
a car-utopia Houston with 11 lane highway or Phoenix. The question is, does it
make sense?

I'm surprised that no one tried to buy a shit lot of land and create a more-
cityish city. In this context SFO is city with a city life, especially some
older districts.

~~~
amyjess
Because a lot of people don't _want_ to live in a more-cityish city. Some of
us prefer the suburbs.

A place like Houston or Phoenix is perfect for me. Actually, I live in
suburban Dallas (and I work farther out in the suburbs), and I have no desire
to move. Though it's possible I might have to move out of state next year, in
which case I'm seriously looking at St. Paul, MN.

~~~
chrisper
Yeah, but a "suburb" like San Jose is just annoying. It has the population of
a city, but the life of a suburb (=nothing going on). So basically the worst
of both.

I mean, I am like you, that I would rather live in a smallish community where
it's calm and everything over a city, but if you combine that feature with
"there are people everywhere" then it is not that great.

~~~
orian
Try visit Zurich. It's very much like village-city by an America' standards.
Slow life, quiet, know your neighbours etc. with all good inventions from XXI
century ;-)

~~~
chrisper
That is where I am planning to move to in May or so. Currently still in the
US, but I am missing home :P So back to Europe it goes.

~~~
orian
Congratz, I loved this city. Missing it a lot. However still living in Europe.

~~~
chrisper
Where do you live?

------
ryandrake
I live in Livermore, and my commute to the South Bay averages about 2 hours
each way. It sucks, but I've gotten used to it and you just have to accept it
because there's really nothing you can do about it. There are only a few major
road arteries, and the public transit options are a total joke--it takes
LONGER because you need to drive to the train station, then bike or take a bus
from the other train station to your work.

Honestly I have no idea what the solution is. Build more lanes on the highway
and more people will choose to commute, quickly using those new lanes up.

~~~
goostavos
>2 hours each way

Jesus, man. That's time you don't get back. I'd factor that into your salary,
take the difference off, and move somewhere sane.

~~~
ryandrake
I've lived in sane places. Problem there is you've got a handful of tech
employers in most of these places. If you lose your tech job in the Bay Area,
you can interview at dozens of local companies a week pretty much forever
until you find something. If you lose your job in SaneTown, USA, you can
exhaust the entire local hiring market in a week and if you come up empty
you're moving (probably to a different State).

~~~
istorical
In NYC you can find tons of employers but rent a room for 800-1000 (living
with roommates) with a 20-40 minute subway commute.

------
Tempest1981
Let's all work from home 1 or 2 days a week. But I suspect things still aren't
bad enough to consider any changes.

~~~
cmdrfred
I heard a executive scream "but face time!" somewhere in the distance. Results
only workplaces would make this possible but I don't see that happening.

~~~
norea-armozel
I never understood the need for face time in positions that aren't sales and
the like. When I write code it's mostly at my workstation without the need for
chit-chat. And meetings I do have can be done over a Skype conference call or
some shared whiteboard app. If anything, there needs to be a tax on employers
who force tech workers to be in an office.

~~~
Tempest1981
Long commutes = workers arriving at work exhausted. Not a great way to start
the day.

The other day, I worked from home... Made coffee, and was coding away at 8am.
By noon, I had a ton of work done. That never happens on a commute day.

~~~
norea-armozel
When I was stuck using the buses in Minneapolis to get to my job in Shoreview
that was the hardest commute I've ever done. I just couldn't get much done. I
was so tired.

------
smeyer
As someone in Boston but from California, the lack of commutes comparable to
the Bay Area or Silicon Valley always makes me grateful, even if there are
other downsides. For example, I split a 2 bedroom apartment in a nice, active
neighborhood a few minutes walk from downtown and about a 20 minute walk from
work for about $1,200.

~~~
userchris
You have a 2 bedroom in downtown Boston for $1200? Or do you mean $1200 each?

~~~
smeyer
$1200 each. But it still seems a lot better than my friends in and near the
Bay Area (and please correct me if I'm wrong).

~~~
abritinthebay
It would be in the low end in SF but I know several people paying that there.

Granted it's for a 4-600 sq ft place...

~~~
smeyer
As far as I can tell, the middle here tends to correspond more to the high end
there. The only friends I know paying substantially more are living in luxury
highrises, whereas on the low end I have friends paying more like $600 a month
to do something like a 4 way split of a 4 bedroom apartment a couple of stops
out on the T.

------
rckclmbr
I'm surprised nobody has mentioned e-bikes. As far as I can tell, that is
_the_ answer to the bay area traffic. Since I bought one roughly 5 months ago,
I've commuted almost 3000 miles. My commute is the same every day, and it is a
lot faster than a bad day of traffic. The bonus is that I don't have to change
into bike clothes or shower.

Details:

12 mile commute

40 minutes by ebike, every day

25 minutes by car, best day

50 minutes by car, average day

1 hour 40 minutes by car, average day

~~~
closeparen
What's the draw of an ebike vs. a low-end motorcycle?

Also, one very simple answer is that the Bay Bridge isn't passable on anything
short of a 250cc motorcycle and won't be until 2018.

~~~
rckclmbr
> What's the draw of an ebike vs. a low-end motorcycle

Main draw is that e-bikes are usable on bike paths and through parks. You feel
like a kid again by taking "shortcuts".

------
1_2__3
It's hard not to see this as a life-and-death struggle between people who
think public transportation is the way of the future and people who think cars
are the future.

I know which way the HN crowd leans, but I feel compelled to point out that
while pro-transit folks may feel comfortable being ideologically "correct", in
practice this has just not worked out in the US and any argument about why
sounds like someone hammering a bell upon which is inscribed "no true
scotsman".

Either there's been a multi-decade cabal holding the entire country in its
grip and preventing us from leaping into our beautiful public transportation
future... Or Americans just do not want it, kicking and screaming about
sustainability to the contrary.

~~~
davidw
> Either there's been a multi-decade cabal holding the entire country in its
> grip and preventing us from leaping into our beautiful public transportation
> future... Or Americans just do not want it, kicking and screaming about
> sustainability to the contrary.

Zoning, basically. It makes density illegal in enough places that transit
isn't terribly practical. It also makes even walking to a corner store
something that is no longer an option in many new developments. If you'd like
to read all about it, this book is very thorough:

[http://amzn.to/2fz1hPI](http://amzn.to/2fz1hPI)

If you'd like something a bit more tl;dr, these are good:
[http://amzn.to/2erOJXL](http://amzn.to/2erOJXL)
[http://amzn.to/2fyXrpG](http://amzn.to/2fyXrpG)

~~~
ghaff
But "Zoning" (to the degree that's the central reason) was also not created by
a "multi-decade cabal". It's largely the summation of the preferences of
residents in different areas.

~~~
davidw
> It's largely the summation of the preferences of residents in different
> areas.

Yes. With the complicity of states/feds/courts etc... who have allowed
neighbors to run rampant over others' property rights to a degree that I think
has lead to a number of terrible consequences.

------
ChuckMcM
It would be interesting to understand _where_ they work. Back in the dot com
days there were people living in Livermore and driving into San Jose (aka "the
South Bay") but now it seems more people with "long" commutes are driving into
San Francisco. And one of the people who worked for me (at an office on the
peninsula) was thinking about moving to San Francisco, even though they
currently lived much closer because they enjoyed the more urban lifestyle
offered there.

As a result of all these different forces I realized how challenging it is to
_not_ have some bad commutes. And in Sunnyvale we're in the midst of a debate
started about choices the city council has made to allow more local housing to
be developed. There are a lot of apartments and condos being built and some
residents are complaining about traffic and change. It will be interesting to
see if folks approve additional transit dollars.

------
bsimpson
I'd be curious to know if distance is a factor they accounted for. Traffic in
LA is straight-up gridlock (or at least it was when I lived there). You could
spend an hour going 10 miles, and that's not even during commute hours.

If you spend 90 minutes driving from SF to Mountain View, traffic definitely
makes it slower/worse than it would otherwise be, but it'd still be a 45
minute drive without traffic.

People may spend more time driving in SF/SV, but that's largely a factor of
how far apart desirable housing and jobs are for many people. I wouldn't be
surprised if traffic on the Peninsula made commutes 2-3x longer than they'd be
without it, but in LA the factor's more like 6x.

~~~
muad
LAX is a perfect example.

It can take you over an hour to get from the off ramp to your terminal. Less
than 1 mile.

------
johan_larson
Tempting though it is to cry, "Let it burn!", we should be beyond such things,
and earnestly desist from anything that might be construed as wishing harm
(even indirectly) upon our honoured colleagues in the greater San Francisco
Bay area.

------
beachstartup
> _" even worse than LA"_

people in the bay area loves chiding LA like this.

but you are quickly starting to understand first hand how exactly LA came to
be the way it is. it was/is a mixture of extremely powerful political,
economic, and social forces exerted over generations.

unfortunately SF/the bay is doing nothing to fix it -- at long last LA is
building new housing, mixed-used real estate, and new light rail and other
public transit very aggressively.

it will probably take the bay area another 2-3 decades to overcome the
resistance, just like LA.

------
overcast
Every time I read these articles, I feel like I made the right decision
staying in the Northeast and not chasing the startup culture of the West. Sure
I make less money on paper, but my office is five minutes away, my large house
is only $1200(including the $6000 in escrow taxes!), only 36.5 hours a week,
no on call, totally flexible working hours, I get to travel all over the
world, and I live like a king. All that free time saved from virtually zero
commute, and no overtime required, adds up to A LOT of time for my personal
projects, and vacations. As I get older, I'm definitely valuing that over
"being in the industry".

~~~
edw519
_I 'm definitely valuing that over "being in the industry"._

You ARE in the industry.

For every programmer in Silicon Valley, there are x of us not in Silicon
Valley. And there's probably little correlation between whether or not you're
in Silicon Valley and the coolness and value of whatever you're building.

I love visiting but I can't imagine living there.

~~~
overcast
There's no denying the connections in that part of the country. I guess that's
what I was eluding to. I'm just finding it's not worth it for most.

------
11thEarlOfMar
I'm wondering specifically about the Warm Springs District in Fremont. This is
where:

\- A new BART station is set to open shortly, and,

\- Across the street, a new single family housing development with 4,000 (yes,
four thousand) new housing units is under construction [0],

\- And, next door, Tesla will be building 500,000 Model 3s annually with 3,000
additional workers.

The AM commutes via I-680 / Pleasanton and I-880 / Oakland are already Hell on
Earth. It's going to get much worse before it gets better.

[0] [https://www.fremont.gov/1515/Warm-SpringsSouth-
Fremont](https://www.fremont.gov/1515/Warm-SpringsSouth-Fremont)

~~~
ryandrake
Still ultra-expensive. That area is highly desirable due to the factors you
listed. Cheapest homes you're going to find in that area start at $1M. Check
out this charming little starter home: [1]

1: [https://www.redfin.com/CA/Fremont/47040-Havasu-
St-94539/home...](https://www.redfin.com/CA/Fremont/47040-Havasu-
St-94539/home/1789960)

------
honkhonkpants
The article makes disingenuous claims about measure B. The county plans to
spend nearly all of that money on freeways, which history has shown will not
relieve traffic. Their plan calls for almost nothing for public transit.

~~~
toast0
> The county plans to spend nearly all of that money on freeways, which
> history has shown will not relieve traffic.

Additional freeway lanes improve throughput, but don't remove congestion at
peak: it will reduce the duration of congestion. If you want to handle peak
traffic without congestion, you would have to build a lot more capacity than
is reasonable (or significantly reduce demand).

Since demand for transit is increasing continuously (as more people move to
the area), and supply of transit increases slowly and only in steps, it's no
surprise that the new supply is quickly matched with demand. Lots of people
would like to go places during rush hour, but the freeways are full for
several hours, and Caltrain is too.

------
justinzollars
I had to sell my house in Berkeley because my commute to San Francisco was
eating up 3 hours every day - the time I allocated to side projects.

Our politicians have given up, no one even talks about making our transit
system better. Total losers.

(12 miles)

~~~
Tempest1981
We should assign the problem to engineers, instead of politicians. Are there
any such efforts? Or have they given up just because of the costs?

~~~
justinzollars
Exactly. This is exactly the problem. In the 50's congress was made up of
Engineers today its made up of attorneys.

~~~
punctilio
Source for "In the 50's congress was made up of Engineers"?

------
bluedino
Remember Scott Collins (of Netscape) commute in 'Code Rush'? He lived in
_Michigan_ and commuted via airplane every 2 weeks to Silicon Valley

~~~
johan_larson
The LA area has people who fly in every week from someplace further east,
maybe Nevada. They spend the week in shared apartments that probably contain
nothing but bunk-beds and a microwave. Then they fly home for the weekend, and
still come out ahead.

------
ohstopitu
Just out of curiosity: How's the public transport situation in the same area?
(I mean, Public Transport + car pooling would help reduce this issue no?)

------
Tempest1981
Will self driving cars be the panacea? Or merely a tool to make painful
commutes more tolerable, for those who can afford them?

~~~
ssharp
Assuming every person replaces their car with a self-driving car, how much
would roadway throughput improve as a result of smarter communal driving? The
assumption is that the self-driving cars are a 1:1 replacement of human-driven
cars and ride sharing does not increase or decrease.

~~~
amyjess
The idea is that you'd use your commute time to do something other than drive.
You could read a book, watch a TV show, play video games, etc. You could even
take a nap if you wanted to.

~~~
sampo
So buying a house behind even a 2-3 hours commute will become doable. So
people will start doing it. Perhaps briefly wake up after 5 hours of sleep,
hop on and get the rest 2 hours of sleep in the car.

------
CydeWeys
Anyone know what the % drag on SF's economy caused by the lack of housing is
up to?

SF has had a shortage of housing for decades, and it just gets worse and
worse. Is there any point at which the NIMBYs will be defeated and zoning
policy adjusted to allow real densification? Or is power stacked so much in
their favor that it will never happen?

------
11thEarlOfMar
And even the coffee shops are more crowded as folks hang out waiting for
traffic to ease before heading home in the evening.

------
FT_intern
the commute is very relaxing if you're on a corporate bus

~~~
orian
As far as being forced to sit in corporate bus for over hour is relaxing ;-)

~~~
amyjess
Bring a book (or an e-reader) or a handheld gaming console.

Don't think of it as a commute; thinking of it as blocking out two hours every
day to play video games!

~~~
splintercell
I have an hour commute daily, and I use that time to read technical books,
papers, watch videos (like Lynda.com training videos), or even code (if I can
get place to sit during off peak hours).

------
forbin_meet_hal
When I was in the Bay Area during the '90s dot-boom, it took me 90-100 minutes
to get from Fremont to Palo Alto. During the dot-bust, it was more like 40
minutes. I cannot imagine what it's like now.

I regret that I didn't use that time to learn Japanese or something.

------
dkhenry
After visiting the Palo Alto region for work I don't understand why anyone
would drive anywhere. It was so extremely friendly to biking, I could get from
Menlo Park to Redwood city and even across the bay to Freemont with no trouble
whatsoever.

~~~
chrisper
Because you can't get anywhere without a car here. At least in San Jose. And
to be honest, I would not ride a bike here after seeing how people drive
around here.

How do you get your stuff home from Costco? I mean there is delivery, but
still.

~~~
dkhenry
I was able to get everywhere I needed to go, granted I was staying at an
AirBnB so I didn't need to go shopping, but I rode past a safeway during my
adventures and I can put plenty of stuff in saddle baskets.

About the people driving, I also found that there are tons of roads right off
the main through fairs that are very very bike friendly, very little traffic
and lots of bike lanes. I think you underestimate just how far you can get on
a bike in a reasonable time. Like I said I commuted from Menlo park to Redwood
city and to Freemont ( across the bay ) with no trouble whatsoever.

------
Tempest1981
We need to encourage clustering/density/jobs in more remote areas where
housing is cheaper, instead of downtown SF/SJ/Oakland. Wouldn't that help? Or
just result in broader sprawl -- I'm picturing LA.

------
iblaine
By 2010, the commute in SF was worse than LA. While caltrain & bart do help in
SF, when it breaks, you got problems. Bart is pretty reliable but Caltrain
seems to break or hit something/someone a few times a month.

------
11thEarlOfMar
Public transportation is not going to come to the rescue. The communities
involved won't tolerate the additional taxes, nor will they cooperate in
making an efficient system.

Can we pin any hopes on fully autonomous vehicles?

~~~
CaptSpify
> ...nor will they cooperate in making an efficient system.

You mean like the rest of the world has already proven to be doable? What
makes this area unique?

------
natch
Just choose where you live carefully (and pay the big bucks and sacrifice
space) and work close. I've never had a bad commute in SV but then I don't
live in a palace.

------
eip
If you sit in traffic for hours to get to and from work where you sit in front
of a computer all day then you are living in the past.

------
1_2__3
Anyone living here could have told you this years ago.

