
Disaster in New York does not require the same policy everywhere - skmurphy
http://blueberrytown.com/index.php/2020/03/22/disaster-in-new-york-does-not-require-the-same-policy-everywhere/
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skmurphy
Key points

"As of approximately 4 pm CDT this afternoon, Italy has the highest confirmed
per capita infection rate of any substantial country. There are 978 Italians
confirmed with COVID-19 for every million people. Switzerland is not far
behind, at 864 per million."

"New York State has a whopping 810 cases per million residents, closing in on
both Italy and Switzerland fast. And the vast majority of those cases are
concentrated in the City and nearby commuter counties. Franklin County, in the
Adirondacks (and where your Editor has been known to spend some time) has not
yet had a single confirmed case."

"By contrast, the other 49 states combined, including such hot zones as
Washington and California, are at 54 cases per million residents. That puts
the per million infection rate in the “other 49” just between Australia and
North Macedeonia."

"The vast difference in the apparent rate of infection between downstate New
York and the rest of the country (and the considerable differences among the
remaining 49 states) suggests that we need not apply precisely the same
policies in every jurisdiction. Even in New York State, we do not understand
the logic, beyond mere political calculus, for imposing the same burdens on
the already poor towns of the Adirondacks as are the bare minimum, if that, in
the boroughs."

"We are doing enough damage to the economy as it is without doing more than is
necessary by treating everywhere, even everywhere in New York State, as if it
were the Times Square subway station. Poverty kills as surely as Covid-19, and
it may be the one thing we are producing as fast as virus particles."

"Fearless state and local leaders, please use a scalpel, not a hacksaw, even
if the Manhattan-headquartered national media demands a universal, maximum
response everywhere."

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nabla9
Major cities are first due to travel and busy airports. The spread of the
epidemic is in different phase in different areas.

Other areas have still time to prepare.

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Gibbon1
tl;dr: 'I'm incapable of understanding that doubling every six days means a
case rate of 50 per million becomes 1000 per million in ~25 days if nothing is
done.'

