
Tesla's Long-Awaited, Lower-Priced Model 3 to Arrive Friday - gs7
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/07/03/535333378/the-tesla-for-the-masses-to-arrive-friday
======
Robotbeat
20,000 cars per month by December is an incredibly ambitious goal. If
achieved, they have a very good chance of getting their 500,000 cars in 2018,
something that virtually everyone (including myself) thought could not be
done.

So two things:

1) If you don't have a dog in this race, wait and see if Tesla really does
achieve these goals. Outrageous claims require strong evidence.

2) If you're a competitor, now is not the time to fold your arms, look down
your nose, and say it can't be done. Tesla has a 50/50 (30% chance? 60%
chance?) chance of eating your lunch, so it's a gamble to assume they won't
succeed. And if you're a luxury car maker, you don't need me to tell you that
as the Model S is already eating your (high profit margin) lunch: "Tesla’s
Model S outsells Mercedes S-Class, Porsche Panamera, and BMW 6/7 Series
combined in the US" [https://electrek.co/2017/05/26/tesls-model-s-leading-us-
larg...](https://electrek.co/2017/05/26/tesls-model-s-leading-us-large-luxury-
segment/)

If you're a competitor, you really have only one option: assume Tesla will
succeed and so try to compete like hell.

~~~
jacquesm
> Tesla’s Model S outsells Mercedes S-Class, Porsche Panamera, and BMW 6/7
> Series combined in the US

Those cars are not even in the same class, _of course_ Tesla would outsell
them. Compare sales of the model S in Germany with the C class, BMW 3 (or
maybe the 5) and just forget about Porsche.

Other cars you could compare it with are larger sedans of the premium variety
Japanese manufacturers (Toyota -> Lexus, Nissan -> Infinity).

I'm really happy to see Tesla make moves but if you're going to make
comparisons it helps if they're apples to apples otherwise you just make Tesla
look bad.

Downvoters are encouraged to spend some time behind the wheel of an S class
(even a 10 year old one will do) and then to go drive a Tesla for a bit.

~~~
FireBeyond
Not sure why you're downvoted, you're right.

Tesla S starts at $57K.

\- Mercedes S starts at $97K \- Panamera starts at $86K \- 6/7 series start at
$81K/$83K.

You're right, you're looking at mid-range Audis and the like. But having been
in a 2016 S and several Audis the interior quality is hugely different. The
Audi feels great, and the S felt like my eight year old Altima.

I don't want to sound like a hater - the Tesla is a lot of fun to drive, and I
like electric, but still.

~~~
Retric
That's just sticker price, many of those cars get sold at a a minor price
premium to a ~30% discount.

Which is why the monthly sales are all over the map:

[http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/porsche/porsche-
pa...](http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/porsche/porsche-panamera/)

    
    
      2016
      January 336 February 293 March 334 April 371 
      2017
      January 35 February 28 March 554 April 1098  <Likely discounts

~~~
Vik1ng

         <Likely discounts
    

Or you know they just introduced a new model...

~~~
Retric
EU sales show very different trends. [http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-
sales-data/Porsche/Pors...](http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-
data/Porsche/Porsche-Panamera/)

January 2016: 227 vs 2017: 660

~~~
Vik1ng
Yeah, because it takes time to get the cars to the US-

------
jonas21
> Musk also tweeted that production would increase "exponentially," with 100
> cars in August, more than 1,500 in September and 20,000 per month in
> December.

Finally, someone who says things will grow exponentially and actually means
it!

~~~
Brakenshire
I just worry how many cars they'll be producing in 5 years time.

~~~
taneq
Forget global warming, the real danger is the entire Earth being turned into
paperclips^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H Model 3s.

------
martincmartin
The U.S. $7500 tax credit for buying electric cars is cut in half two quarters
after a manufacturer hits 200,000 units. Two quarters later it is cut to 25
percent, and at the start of the sixth quarter after the limit is reached, the
credit disappears completely.

I wonder if enough people know about this to produce pressure to buy Model 3's
quickly?

[https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/how-does-the-electric-
ca...](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/how-does-the-electric-car-tax-
credit-work)

~~~
toomuchtodo
Tesla is planning deliveries to maximize the amount of owners who can receive
a credit.

Estimated phase out schedule:
[http://i.imgur.com/D3AoD18.png](http://i.imgur.com/D3AoD18.png)

------
jonknee
It's arriving Friday and they still haven't released official photos of the
interior nor have any options configurations. Really odd way to launch a
vehicle.

[https://www.tesla.com/model3](https://www.tesla.com/model3)

~~~
k3oni
The first model 3's won't have any extra options, Musk made that clear a while
ago by discussing the wrong release of the X with too many options that ended
up backing up the deliveries.

~~~
ClassyJacket
But they haven't even officially shown off the interior _at all_. The car
hasn't been fully shown, even in its one configuration.

~~~
magnetic
Why is that a problem? They've gotten a ton of Model 3 reservations before
people even knew what it looked like. These are faith buyers.

~~~
dx034
Because Tesla still wants to exist in 10 years. If they disappoint eager
buyers now it could be the last Tesla they'll buy. Next time they have to
decide, most car companies will have a fully electric range.

------
ramshanker
I just wonder, how much bandwidth these cars send home (Tesla HQ) as learning
data.

~~~
ASpring
Also curious about this. Tesla has the ability to to hoard millions of hours
of driving experience per year. Data seems to trump all in ML applications so
far and Tesla definitely has the most available to harvest.

At the same time, Tesla is primarily video based and it is likely quite
difficult to call home with gigabytes of video every night.

~~~
krick
Is it possible to disable reporting? If, say, I'm not thrilled by idea telling
the guys from Tesla where I'm heading to?

~~~
ec109685
Yes

~~~
xillion
How? Even Tesla's with autopilot equipped (but not purchased) capture data.

~~~
ec109685
You get a chance to decide if you want to send the data to them.

------
Shivetya
Grats to them. Really curious what the configuration of the cars to be
delivered on the 28th are. Also will be very interesting over the next year
with two 200+ "affordable" EVs on the market and another pair to be announced
in September if those early adopters on this end of the market will think of
their purchases a few months down the road

~~~
Shank
The configuration is a really good question. The website doesn't allow any
customization right now because it's so early -- so I assume these 30 initial
shipments are people who've been in contact with Tesla directly about being
the first batch.

Elon has said in the past that too much customization really put a damper on
Model X, so I wouldn't be surprised if these are all nearly identical except
for color. There's also no all wheel drive model yet
([https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/845284390397665280](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/845284390397665280))
and therefore no "performance" option either.

~~~
jsight
Yeah, from what I am hearing the initial batches will only have a few options:

\- Wheels

\- Paint

\- "Autopilot"

~~~
bryanlarsen
According to the article wheels and paint are the only options. However auto
pilot is probably a software only option at this point in time, not affecting
the build complexity, so you might be right about that too.

------
yalogin
Even if they hit their production targets, everything hinges on how well and
how soon they can get their autnomous feature to work. If Google gets theirs
to work and into a production car before Tesla does it will be tough for
Tesla. Until then the stock will have good momentum.

~~~
davedx
I don't agree with this analysis. The Model 3 is a superior mass market
electric car to almost all competitors (only the Chevy Bolt is comparable on
cost and range).

Autonomous driving will be a game changer, but it's also vitally important for
Tesla to capture the electric vehicle mass market.

~~~
BoorishBears
The Volt is a more practical competitor to the Model 3, which is part of why I
dropped my model 3 reservation for a 2017.

Other reasons include a lackluster test drive of a Model S and my increasing
skepticism of Tesla's practices as a company (aggressively selling cars before
adding new features at a completely random cadence but claiming model years
are unnecessary, promises like AP2 parity, QC failures at 20k cars over
several months while also planning to make 20k cars a month, etc.)

But I digress, 40-50 mile range on EV only mode means most people can complete
their commutes on EV only with a Volt. I charge at work and at home, so I can
get 50 miles to work, 50 miles by lunch, and another 50 miles to go home.

A Volt specced out like mine has a Mobileye sensor for lane keeping assist,
ACC, an interior not as needlessly spartan as the 3, 0-30 times slightly
faster than last year's Model S 85, and a hatchback.

After driving the Volt I'm really saddened that GM won't push the Volt more.
Not a single Model 3 reservation I know wouldn't be better served by a Volt,
but most of them had no idea about stuff like the improved 50 mile range. Some
even write it off as a hybrid (which it technically is, but they think 1-2
mile range, not 50)

~~~
zionic
The volt is a great car, just wish they made a cool looking one.

~~~
BoorishBears
The Gen 2 looks pretty modern. I don't know if it qualifies as cool (I think
it does but I bought it already so I'm biased), but it's pleasant to look at
and not-Aztec-like the way the Gen 1 was.

------
canada_dry
Given the recent stories behind the scenes of Musk's companies... I can't help
but imagine that there are hundreds of almost broken, spent, and exhausted
young people (many of them very low paid "interns") who have been working for
peanuts making this happen.

------
Roritharr
I really wonder how the top-speed is on those cars in their various
configurations. For me this is the deal breaker on all other "affordable"
solutions thus far.

~~~
jacquesm
I don't think _any_ car I've ever owned has spent more than a minute or two at
its top rated speed. Even acceleration is only important up to a minimum to
get along in traffic. Even in Germany where cars are allowed to go pretty
quick in some areas hardly any of them go at or near their rated top speed.

~~~
narrowtux
True, because it takes long to actually get to that speed.

But imagine if you'd like to drive 160 km/h on the highway all the time, you
probably need a car that has a rated top speed of at least 180 km/h.

~~~
sidcool
Then you would also buy a high end car. Model S, perhaps??

~~~
ferongr
An 125HP car of normal weight (on American landbarge or anything) surpasses
180km/h and can easily maintain a cruising speed of 160km/h with tolerable
noise, but mediocre fuel consumption.

