
Social Bonds Are Fraying Fast in America’s Cities - longdefeat
https://thedispatch.com/p/social-bonds-are-fraying-fast-in
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eric_b
My prediction is COVID will precipitate a decline in major urban areas that
will last at least ten years.

The bargain urban cities made was that the residents got easy access to their
workplace, restaurants, bars, theaters, events etc, in exchange for living in
exorbitantly expensive tiny cramped apartments.

COVID has upended this deal and most pragmatic folks are thinking hard about
moving out. What is the point of living in a small box if you can't do
anything and you work from home? And if the government can shut it all down
any old time they want anyways? Add on top of that the increase in violent
crime/unrest and only the true believers will stay.

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leetcrew
I think it's much too early to say. my lease is up in 60 days and I don't have
any intention of moving. if things are still not back to normal a year after
that, I would probably consider leaving the city. FWIW, most bars and
restaurants in my area have been open for outdoor dining for quite some time
now, so it's really not a huge inconvenience. in any case, the ability to walk
home drunk is not my main reason for living in a city. I can still walk to
several lovely parks any time I want, and several of my friends live close
enough that they can walk to meet me there. in my experience, these casual
meetups are much more likely to happen when everyone can walk to the location,
but YMMV.

I don't think the fact that the government has temporarily closed a lot of
businesses during the worst pandemic in several decades implies this will be a
regular occurrence. to change one's entire lifestyle over temporary
restrictions during a rare crisis seems like the opposite of "pragmatic" to
me.

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renewiltord
Wild hypothesis derived from personal experience: I love cities, but I love my
friends more. American cities have experienced regulatory capture from local
homeowners. But local homeowners eventually die and their kids usually can't
buy in before they die. So their kids move out and when they die, the home
becomes remote-owned. This leads to a gradual sparsification of the long-term
residents of the place and a conversion to renter neighbourhoods.

I guess a way to test this hypothesis would be to see if the measure of social
bonding is the same in cities without restrictive housing policy.

Interesting note in the article, too: In the city, we usually hang out at
common city areas (pubs, bars, restaurants). In the suburbs, you usually hang
out at someone's home.

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throw51319
Mostly due to the media being very divisive. People get dragged unknowningly
(mostly) into these media/thought bubbles on IG and other platforms... of
course things will get divisive.

And it's self-perpetuating, because the leaders of each thoughtbubble are
getting paid/making income from posting the same bubble thoughts that their
followers love.

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mc32
This is more about bonds fraying due to quarantine induced isolation. Urban
dwellers tend to not know their physically proximate neighbors, whereas
suburban dwellers do, so given this imposition, urban dwellers feel more
isolated and alone than their suburban counterparts which is somewhat
counterintuitive given people’s preconception that suburban dwellers live in
isolation from each other.

~~~
ummonk
From the article, it appears urban and suburbans are roughly equally likely to
know their neighbors (56% -> 47% for urbanites and 48% -> 52% for
suburbanites). It's rural people that know their neighbors better.

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sillysaurusx
True in our experience. We’re considering moving back to the Midwest to be
around family, because the alternative is to be in a house alone all day every
day.

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mountainb
Why does the article not address the elephant in the room: cost of living?

What was already a poor use of money (being an urban renter) is now a much
worse use of money thanks to plague and other social ills. US urban quality of
life has not kept pace with international standards, also, with antiquated
infrastructure being one of the most significant issues combined with an anti-
development regressive political mindset.

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dpflan
I feel like this survey would benefit from asking about relationship status,
employment status, remote-working possibilities, etc.

~~~
ummonk
Right, I think the big confounding factor is that single childless people tend
to be urban apartment dwellers...

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cowboysauce
I'm extremely skeptical about the claims that COVID-19 is going to cause a
long term mass exodus from cities. Of course cities are less attractive places
to live when everything is closed down. But if that makes city living less
attractive, then why would moving to a place where those bars, restaurants,
etc don't even exist be attractive? I grew up in a place where the population
of the entire county was only 25,000 people and there are downsides to living
in such a place.

The biggest thing is that there is simply less to do. I remember that
meetup.com and similar sites had maybe a dozen things listed within 50 miles
and they were generally things like "Senior Citizen's nature walk" and "Small
Business owner social group". Finding a D&D group? Much more difficult and
you'd better be prepared to drive long distances? Makerspace/hackerspace? non-
existent. Your favorite musician is generally going to stop in the big cities
and you're going to have to drive to get there.

If you're a foodie then your choices are going to be restricted to fast-food,
a few traditional local places and maybe one or two Chinese restaurants. Food
trends might reach you a year or two after your friends in the city. And
hopefully the only Pho place within an hour drive will be decent. Museums will
be small and limited and sporting events will be limited to the local
recreational/high school teams.

Buying things will be more difficult. Your amazon packages will take longer to
there. Socially, you're much more limited. The dating scene is much more
difficult (which goes 10x if you're not straight). And the existing social
groups can be insular and difficult to break into.

That's not to say that it's all bad. Such places can be incredible if you tend
to be more introverted and love the outdoors.

Overall it strikes me as an "the green is always greener" situation. I think
that, at best, most people will try it out for a year or two and realize that
they miss trivia night at the bar/concerts/sporting events/parties and move
back.

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stx
Why was this flagged? Many stories which I am interested in get flagged and I
do not understand why.

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carabiner
Just move to the midwest or New Hampshire or Boise. Get a 4-bedroom house for
$200k close to a lake. If the nearest city has a Trader Joe's, Whole Foods,
and REI, that will probably indicate a population and lifestyle that is
compatible with most millennials, as those stores do a huge amount of research
before deciding to open a new location.

~~~
mountainb
You will not find a 4BR New Hampshire house by a lake at that price. You will
not find any lakeside property for $200k unless it is a shack. I know, I was
just up north in Coos County to do boating stuff and was checking prices. My
3BR in Northern NH is valued at $320k. We are near multiple boat launches and
a sizable lake, but it wouldn't be considered a lake property.

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alexashka
> this pandemic could trigger a spatial reordering where America moves back
> into countryside where people are more social, trusting, and would simply
> prefer to reside.

This is in the last paragraph.

The author tells a bunch of stats but seems unable to make actual sense of
them, beyond the surface level.

People go where the jobs are, not where they _prefer_ to be. With more people
than ever being out of jobs, the only way they magically move to the
countryside and stay there is if we place them on permanent welfare.

'The people' don't get to decide anything. They are sheep, for shepherds to
play with. Grapes of wrath by Steinbeck expressed this in a way an average
American can relate to.

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jshaqaw
If people recall all of these predictions were made after 9/11 and the
subsequent two decades were not exactly a period of decline for NYC. I live in
and love NYC. If it’s not your thing that’s fine. There doesn’t have to be one
way to live for everyone. I’ve been in the country three weeks now and it’s
lovely. I’m happy to be here another three weeks. But my god am I itching to
get back to the city.

I’d also point out that if we have a vaccine by year end or early 2021 which
isn’t a certainty but is hardly a trivial possibility then all of these grand
prognostications (which garner clicks) that life has changed forever will look
awfully silly.

