
Bitcoin Is an Escapist Safe Haven - pshaw
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-01-04/bitcoin-is-an-escapist-safe-haven
======
zanny
> Its decentralized nature means it's not part of any system

That... isn't true. The bitcoin blockchain is distributed, but the last two
years have functionally proven that bitcoin core IS bitcoin, and that
implementation (most of whoms developers are employed by Blockstream) is
centralized control by a corporate entity.

They can change what they want about bitcoin, and even after they force
controversial tech already in tree like RBF or proposals like Segwit there has
never been even close - by an order of magnitude - close to enough consensus
to transition away from bitcoin core by replacing it as the majority client,
and thus the implementation that controls the blockchain - the implementation
that controls the protocol.

That is where I lost faith in the bitcoin dream. It started out as a project
of idealists but has turned in large part into a for profit venture to create
a large exploitable fee machine for black market trading sites.

Its replacement will require the diligence of its idealists to stay in charge
and to not give the keys over to those whose objectives just involve profit.

~~~
wyager
The reason no one has countermanded the changes implemented in Bitcoin Core is
that none of the changes have been unreasonable.

~~~
pmorici
The most recent so called "segwit" change set that core pushed out recently
looks to have strong enough opposition to it that it will never activate and
the Bitcoin Ultimate implementation has strong support among a vocal and
growing group of users. I would be surprised if core holds the control it
currently does in a year or two.

~~~
xiphias
The important thing is on the ,,vocal'' part. For a lot of us Bitcoin is
working wonderfully, and we trust and respect the current leadership of
Bitcoin Core a lot. Still, we have other things to do in our lives, so don't
have time to argue with the vocal people who have one resource that we don't:
time.

------
Animats
Bitcoin is basically a way to get money out of China. 97% of the trading is in
yuan, as the article points out. All other uses are down in the noise.

~~~
bdcravens
Also I suspect why mining equipment is seemingly always a net-loss: if your
goal is to escape capital controls, you're willing to take a loss vis-a-vis
someone who is just trying to make more of the same currency. (USD->BTC->USD)

~~~
Animats
Because mining is "exporting", miners get breaks on power and loans. After
those, it's probably not a net loss.

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JumpCrisscross
Anyone have a source for cross-country Bitcoin flows? I am curious if it is
getting gentler treatment, in the U.S. and Europe, on account of it siphoning
wealth from South America, China and Russia into the former's economies.

------
tlrobinson
_" whatever danger you fear, Bitcoin has no direct exposure to it"_

Hah.

------
liquidise
Notable is that Ethereum is experiencing a lagging, but similar, increase in
value. According to Coinbase [1], it has gone from 8.30 -> 11.42 (37%) since
the 1st.

1\. [https://www.coinbase.com/charts](https://www.coinbase.com/charts)

~~~
lhl
Not just ETH, but most of the top alts have hit ATHs today. XMR is up over 50%
this week, and DASH is up 66%.

~~~
majewsky
Given enough jargon, most discussions sound like sports coverage. :)

------
latchkey
Don't forget India!

[http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/15/india-rupee-restriction-
boost...](http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/15/india-rupee-restriction-boost-
bitcoin-digital-currency.html)

------
parceltape
"The virtual currency's value rests, in the final analysis, on nothing but the
faith of the community that supports it.

The faith can be relatively easy to undermine, of course. In 2013, bitcoin
plummeted from its high because of a December move by the People's Bank of
China, which banned mainland banks from dealing in the cryptocurrency."

Is this not a contradiction? Clearly it shows the value of Bitcoin responds to
political events in the same way as any currency does.

~~~
runeks
It's a recursive definition, at least. They say the value rests on the faith
of the community, and that this faith can be undermined by a change in
value/price. But I guess this is an accurate description of the value of
money: it's worth something because it's worth something.

------
nzjrs
I always considered bitcoin a social network for a certain type of nerd. That
it can occasionally be used to buy things is a bonus.

------
rock57
Quoting from [http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-
january-4-2017-...](http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-
january-4-2017-2017-1)

Bitcoin's gains have been buoyed by renewed interest from China, where money
is rushing out of the country as its currency, the yuan, continues to
weaken...

According to a recent Business Insider Intelligence briefing, citing data from
Cryptocompare: "In the first 24 hours of the new year, over 5 million bitcoins
were bought in Chinese yuan, equating to $3.8 billion. In contrast, just
53,000 bitcoins were bought in US dollars."

~~~
elastic_church
1/3rd of the entire bitcoin supply changed hands in China in a 24 hour time
period?

Come on that doesn't even make sense. Perhaps a notional value of 5 million
bitcoin by volume were traded, but some phrases make more sense than others.

~~~
kobeya
Which isn't surprising at all, because many of the Chinese exchanges have no
trading fees. So of course you have massive volumes.

------
edblarney
I don't see anything 'safe' about bitcoin ownership, it's quite volatile and
risky, and not backed by any asset. So, not really safe in any classical
sense.

~~~
kobeya
What asset backs dollars?

~~~
MagnumOpus
The tax-collecting power of the US federal government, backed by the world's
largest military.

~~~
monort
Russian ruble was backed by a tax-collecting power and a large military too,
but they still had a hyperinflation period during 90s. It's easy to mismanage
a currency for the precise reason, that it is not backed by anything.

------
cdevs
That was the most optimistic article ever. I don't think Richard Simmons is as
excited about exercising as this guy is about bitcoin.

------
nameisu
cant believe its over 1k again

------
beedogs
Contrast that with this _utterly terrible_ FT article (login required, but you
can search for the title on Google and bypass it):

[https://www.ft.com/content/b5d66ed8-d1b3-11e6-b06b-680c49b4b...](https://www.ft.com/content/b5d66ed8-d1b3-11e6-b06b-680c49b4b4c0)

------
MarcusBrutus
Bitcoin fails to satisfactorily answer von Mises' regression theorem. It also
has no scarcity since it can face competition by an infinite number of similar
conceivable algorithms / block-chains / virtual currencies that offer much the
same features, regardless of how hard its own mining gets. Not to mention that
once it is perceived as more than just a nuisance by some major government it
will be shut down in a heartbeat. Future generations will laugh at our
incredulity just like we make fun of the Tulip mania (which had more substance
to boot). There is real, almost insatiable global demand for a currency with
intrinsic value and scarcity that cannot be inflated by fiat. But given that
such a currency will antagonize major governments it will likely not be a
crypto-currency but rather a currency backed by some sufficiently powerful
country. I am actually expecting the Russians or Chinese to launch a 100%
gold-backed currency within the next 5 years. Failing that, when the EU breaks
up the new Deutsche mark will be a good alternative. Any of these developments
will pop Bitcoin's bubble.

~~~
FellowTraveler
> once it is perceived as more than just a nuisance by some major government
> it will be shut down in a heartbeat

Actually, the unique feature that makes Bitcoin special is specifically its
censorship-resistance. That's why people value it -- because it cannot be shut
down.

~~~
elif
It is resistant to confiscation, but the IRS can still make you a fugitive in
most of the developed world.

~~~
stale2002
Not if they don't know that you own an account.

~~~
ubernostrum
The IRS got Switzerland to open up previously-confidential banking records.

You think they're not going to find a way to identify Bitcoin users? "It's on
_the internet_ , that makes it untraceable" is magical thinking that does not
survive contact with sufficiently dedicated real-world agencies.

~~~
stale2002
The IRS got people to give up the identities of other people.

With bitcoin, if you take the right precautions, it is impossible for anyone
to know which account is yours.

It is a TECHNICAL solution. It doesn't matter how many people the IRS
threaten.

Can the US government tell everyone in the world to think of a random number,
then these citizens don't tell anybody what number they chose, and then can
the government arrest everyone who chooses the number 10? No, it cannot do
this.

And if it can't do that, then it can't arrest all the bitcoin owners.

~~~
ubernostrum
OK. So buy something with Bitcoin _without_ :

* Ever appearing at a retail establishment with security cameras

* Ever scheduling a product for delivery to any address, period

* Ever scheduling a service to be provided at any location, period

* Ever communicating with the other party via any means whatsoever, including placing an order online, not even via Tor behind seven proxies

And tell me how it goes. Because all of those things above are vectors for
identifying you that big random numbers won't solve.

~~~
catuscoti
Ultimately, all of this assumes that the IRS are willing to prove that they
will risk their lives and die for what they believe in. They will not, because
they expect the police force to do that, who in turn will not, because they
expect the army to do that. And that is how it all went wrong so often in the
past.

~~~
ubernostrum
Why would the IRS need to risk their lives to conduct a legal investigation?
If you're caught on a CCTV camera somewhere, they're going to be able to find
out about it without getting killed.

And if somebody plans to kill IRS agents, well, that _is_ going to bring out
the heavy forces, and will not end well for the tax evader.

