
Mary Meeker Internet Trends Report 2018 - kbal11
https://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/internet-trends-report-2018-99574140
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bazizbaziz
Link to slides off KPCB's site without needing to sign up for an account:
[http://kpcbweb2.s3.amazonaws.com/files/121/INTERNET_TRENDS_R...](http://kpcbweb2.s3.amazonaws.com/files/121/INTERNET_TRENDS_REPORT_2018.pdf?1527701640)

[http://www.kpcb.com/internet-trends](http://www.kpcb.com/internet-trends)

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textmode
Link to slides without having to visit kpcb.com or amazonaws.com:

[http://web.archive.org/web/20180530170222/http://www.kpcb.co...](http://web.archive.org/web/20180530170222/http://www.kpcb.com/file/2018-internet-
trends-report)

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baxtr
I’ve always been very skeptical at this report. I’m not exactly sure why, but
I think because a) it is mainly a collection of a lots of data and b) it is
extremely popular with many business people who often have little knowledge on
the subject

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patkai
I'm also skeptical of reports where one seems to need 294 slides to identify a
trend. But drowning viewers in data and having no conclusions at the end is
all the data I need.

~~~
baxtr
True. What I don’t get though: Why is it sooo popular then?

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dfabulich
Mary Meeker became popular about seven or eight years ago, and at the time,
there was an executive summary: "mobile is much, much bigger than you
realize."

At the time, many people didn't realize that Android + iOS shipments had
dwarfed Wintel shipments until they saw this dramatic image in her 2012 slide
deck.
[https://image.slidesharecdn.com/internettrendsstanford120312...](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/internettrendsstanford120312final-121203181402-phpapp01/95/2012-kpcb-
internet-trends-yearend-update-24-638.jpg)

Since then, IMO, people keep showing up because they're looking for another
major shock. But there hasn't been a major shock like the rise of mobile since
then. Mobile is still big. China is still big. etc.

Now her presentations convey a feeling of comfort. "I believed all of this
already, because I am a smart, well-informed person, and here's the data to
prove it."

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matco11
Mary Meeker became popular in 1995. She was the lead internet equity research
analyst at Morgan Stanley and covered the IPO of Netscape. She was one of the
top equity research analysts in 1998-2000 covering EBay, Amazon, Drugstore.com
amongst others

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allenleein
Look at her report from five years ago before hyping her predictions. Most
successful predictions obvious (mobile, China). Lots of misses (AI, cloud
computing), and lots that’s wrong (everyone will be using wearables?).

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olefoo
If you count Apple Watch and various fitbit items a lot of people are.

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bufferoverflow
No. iOS in general has low market penetration, let alone wearable.

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godzillabrennus
They have 65% of all the profits: [https://dazeinfo.com/2017/10/06/global-
mobile-handset-profit...](https://dazeinfo.com/2017/10/06/global-mobile-
handset-profit-q2-apple-samsung/)

Amazing for one company.

~~~
testrun
Profits are not market penetration.

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redditmigrant
Most of the time, the value I derive from this report is to gain a directional
sense of the tech world that can then be combined with other insights to form
actionable items.

For e.g. in terms of investing, smartphone shipments are not growing, which
means that for companies like Apple that derive a significant piece of their
revenue from smartphones will probably have to find growth elsewhere, either
further up the stack or by launching newer products. This means that until a
significant non-handset source of revenue emerges, Apple would likely not grow
dramatically from this huge base.

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markivraknatap
No mention of blockchain or bitcoin or ethereum or cryptocurrencies. Really ?

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darzu
There's a slide on coinbase membership

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groby_b
Oh boy. That is one tortured slide. "We must have a hockey stick, find me
one".

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modi15
This was pretty good last year but this year isnt forward looking at all.

Also they missed the 100 mn new internet users which came online in India the
past year and the rock bottom mobile data rates which enabled it.

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melling
On slide 25, she claims Google Voice recognition has reached 95% accuracy,
which seems to be human level threshold.

“Google Machine Learning Word Accuracy”

Does this mean anything practical to users?

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bitexploder
The garbled voice mail translation I still see would beg to differ. Maybe on
clean audio sources they have? But they still translate some absolute nonsense
that I can easily understand in one listen.

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golem14
I'm not sure all Google products use the same voice recognition tech. Almost
sure that they're not.

In the NLP realm for instance, Google translate is (or used to be) based on a
much older statistical model rather than the hot deep learning models the cool
projects use nowadays.

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bahmboo
"0% new smartphone unit shipment growth in 2017"

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bufferoverflow
That, combined with the mobile market growth. Means people are happy with
their phones, find no reasons to upgrade.

~~~
csomar
There is no relation between growth and renewal. Say there is 3BN mobile users
and 3BN shipment a year. That's each user renewing every year. But next year
you only have 3BN shipment.

-> 0% growth + people upgrading every year.

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cm2012
Insane growth of all the messenger apps surprised me.

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victor106
Does anyone here know how her past trends compare? How would one use trends
like this to make daily or career choices or strategic decisions?

~~~
ljf
Last 5 years of reports and comments from Hacker News:
[https://hn.algolia.com/?query=Mary%20meeker&sort=byPopularit...](https://hn.algolia.com/?query=Mary%20meeker&sort=byPopularity&prefix&page=0&dateRange=all&type=story)

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apapli
Pretty light on in the enterprise computing section. I had expected more,
enterprise applications are far more than just dropbox/slack/some product I
never heard of before this report.

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aaavl2821
No mention of healthcare at least in the TOC this year, perhaps not surprising
given Beth seidenbergs recent departure. Anyone know if they're still doing HC
stuff?

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thinkling
There is definitely mention of health care, including speculation that tech
may help bend the cost curve down.

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throwaway6497
Will there be a presentation or commentary on these slides?

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jaydz
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdjcdZqODoE](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdjcdZqODoE)

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kinsomo
So, what's the context for this for those of us that don't know? Who's Mary
Meeker, and why should I care about her trendspotting? Just wondering if it's
worth it to wade through 300 slides.

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ghaff
If only there were a way to search for basic information. Sorry :-)

Mary was one of the early financial analysts to focus on the emerging
Internet. She's now at KPMG and this report is an annual distillation of a lot
of the current trends and data.

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ajiang
KPCB, but easy mistake

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ghaff
Never make a mistake in a snark :-)

I mess that particular one up all the time.

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davidivadavid
This report contains a lot of data. Is there a counterpart to it that, for
each slide, attempts to answer the question "So what?"

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cstanley
Does anyone have the tl;dr (summary)?

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markivraknatap
[https://techcrunch.com/2018/05/30/internet-
trends-2018/](https://techcrunch.com/2018/05/30/internet-trends-2018/)

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ianamartin
I have to vehemently disagree with slide 36: "It's Crucial to Manage For
Unintended Consequences . . . But It's Irresponsible to Stop Innovation +
Progress"

I'm afraid that's exactly backwards. It's Irresponsible not to manage for
unintended consequences... but it's crucial to keep innovation and progress
moving forward.

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camillomiller
American capitalism vs European capitalism at its best.

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baxtr
Can you eloborate on that? Things like “The Lean Startup” (de-risking as
principle) originated in the States

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allenz
Irresponsible implies a moral imperative. I think they're saying that
"unintended consequences" often harm other people, and therefore business have
the responsibility to minimize them. The stereotype is that American business
like Uber, Facebook, and Amazon tend to see shareholder value as their one and
only duty.

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russellbeattie
This report is always interesting, but watch out for Mary's right-wing
political views she likes to add in.

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eppsilon
A section on the US national debt/spending was the only remotely right-wing
thing I saw.

