
Airbnb valued at $13B ahead of staff stock sale - prostoalex
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102117120
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quaunaut
I always see these people commenting on how they don't see the value in
Airbnb. I've gotta say, after staying at a few places, I don't see the value
anywhere else.

* Hilton Worldwide has yearly revenues of $9.7b.

* Marriott International has yearly revenues of $11.8b.

* Best Western has yearly revenues of $6b.

Now, I don't know what their current revenues are. Based on how many people
from all over the US I've spoken to that use them frequently already, I'd
assume they're growing at a decent clip. Furthermore, they have virality on
their side, where their competitors just plain don't. It takes years to open a
new hotel. If Airbnb wants to deploy to Casper, WY, they only have to make the
effort insofar as basic background checks. If they want to do a stronger
deployment, they find maid services and anything else they might need to
support local hosts.

Furthermore, as much as there are local law issues in places like NYC against
them, I don't anticipate those lasting long or having a large effect on their
revenues. The same way that if you're in Uber's way you get painted as being
anti-jobs, Airbnb gets to say the same thing. And that's in the few places
that have them.

I think they've got a long way to grow. I look at $13b, and part of me thinks
that might even be soft, especially if they look into starting their own
hotels, to provide a higher 'minimum' to a given city, which allows Airbnb to
maintain itself as a premium brand(as yet, I've never stayed or heard anyone
else staying anywhere that wasn't a much better deal than anything else
nearby), even if their prices don't reflect it.

Remember: These valuations aren't for what a company is _currently_ worth.
Otherwise, there's no point to investment. They valuations are for where they
see the company going, and more probably, growing past.

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supergirl
what about future competition? what's to stop 100 other people starting
similar websites?

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rwmj
Sadly, network effects. The same reason that eBay doesn't have any serious
competitors, despite the awful experience they offer.

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canvia
What's so awful about eBay? I have always been able to find pretty much
exactly what I want at a reasonable price.

~~~
avalaunch
It's great for buyers. It's awful for sellers. They charge massive fees and
offer virtually no protection against buyer fraud.

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smackfu
We all consider AirBnb old hat, but I'm constantly running into people who
have never heard of it when we mention we used it on a recent vacation. Even
an Uber driver we used on that trip, in Seattle, had never heard of AirBnb.

That suggests a lot of future growth.

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DougN7
Does it seem like we're in another Internet bubble to anyone else?

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arfliw
If we are, it should be called the Facebook Bubble. After their IPO when the
stock lost half it's value, there was a severe market correction in VC as
well. It got a lot harder to raise money. Now that the stock is up like 400%
from its bottom, the money is flowing again. Want to know when the market will
again correct? Just watch the price of FB. Or the new breed once they go
public (Uber/Airbnb/Dropbox/Square etc).

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easytiger
The FB stock dive was largely emotional investing and happens every time when
you get an IPO of a brand the general public identify with. I saw it hit about
19 and bought, even if a bit too timidly. I don't think you can read too much
into that initial cock up RE facebook's value.

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troels
I wonder how common it is for investors to allow a partial cashout of employee
stockholders like this? And how are they going to distribute the cash? pro-
rata?

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DanBlake
Its extremely common around the later stages (D and up)

Logic is this : At that stage of a business, you want founders who are looking
for a IPO or billion dollar business. If that founder still has a mortgage on
his house, he is going to indirectly steer the company in more 'safe' ways to
ensure his nestegg retains value. If you just give that founder a few million,
hes no longer motivated by that initial cash payment and only has the moon to
shoot for now.

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troels
Thanks - That makes sense.

