

Three rules for technological fixes: How to decide which problems will yield to technology - robg
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v456/n7224/full/456871a.html

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skmurphy
See
[http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081218094626.ht...](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081218094626.htm)
for a long summary that's no charge.

1\. The technology must address the cause-effect relationship connecting
problem to solution. For example, vaccines work with great reliability because
they address almost all of the important variables necessary for preventing
the disease.

2\. The effects of the technological fix must be unambiguous using
uncontroversial criteria: benefits must be obvious to all.

3\. R&D is more likely to solve a social problem when it improves an existing
technical core. It's less effective when exploring theoretical foundations,
causes or dynamics of a problem.

~~~
robg
Thanks. I was behind a firewall and couldn't test whether it was free.

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bootload
_"... Not all problems will yield to technology. Deciding which will and which
won't should be central to setting innovation policy .."_

Forget trying to read the article it's subscription.

But the question posed is a good one. My stab is to use trial and error,
cheaply. But there has to be more to it than that. Maybe a surfing analogy is
order. Riding the wave of problems only leads to technical breakthroughs if
you choose the right wave. Go to early and it you miss the break and ride over
the bump and miss it. Go to late and you also miss it. You have to exhibit
good timing (luck?) to enter the wave just at the right spot and hold on.

Some old salts who have been around for a long time, say that if you squint at
the market you can see those waves before everyone else and dabble and catch
them before they get big. But this only happens once and a while when you
least expect it.

