

A visualization of real estate prices on the finnish market. (in finnish) - valtsu
http://kannattaakokauppa.fi

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sz4kerto
Similar one in Hungarian:
[http://otthonterkep.hu/?s=elado&o=ertekesites2014&lat=47.205...](http://otthonterkep.hu/?s=elado&o=ertekesites2014&lat=47.2051615&lng=19.5053826&z=8)

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scellus
Thanks to the Stan team for making the modelling feasible! [http://mc-
stan.org](http://mc-stan.org)

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phreeza
Would you care to elaborate on that? What is the model exactly, from the
visualisation I would have guessed it is just an aggregation of real estate
prices?

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scellus
Price data is sparse, often from a small number of sales, and censored when
number of sales is smaller than six. So the local price levels, and especially
trends are not at all clear from the raw data.

The model has three-level geographical hierarchy from zip-code prefixes, and
the local population density as a (hierarchical) covariate. There are also
covariances for price level, trend and trend change, and residual model takes
number of sales into account and adapts to outliers.

All this helps in getting a better idea of what really happens behind the more
or less random individual sales.

[http://louhos.github.io/figs/2015-05-07-asuntohintojen-
muuto...](http://louhos.github.io/figs/2015-05-07-asuntohintojen-
muutokset/raw-vs-model.png)

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ouzor
Here's a figure of the data before and after modeling, tells a lot:
[http://louhos.github.io/figs/2015-05-07-asuntohintojen-
muuto...](http://louhos.github.io/figs/2015-05-07-asuntohintojen-
muutokset/raw-vs-model.png)

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ouzor
Data and source code are indeed open, see here:
[https://github.com/reaktor/Neliohinnat](https://github.com/reaktor/Neliohinnat)

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crazynoodlehead
Is there anyway we can view the information in English? Google translate is
failing to translate it to English. I'm really interested in understanding all
the information presented

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Maakuth
For a short primer: trendi = trend, hinta = price, laskee = decreases, nousee
= increases. "Kannattaako kauppa" can be translated to "Is trade profitable?".
So the trend view shows in red where real estate prices are expected to fall
in 2016 and in cyan where they are expected to rise.

~~~
crazynoodlehead
This was helpful. Thank you! :)

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JohnDoe365
Using open data?

