
Ask HN: What will be the stock of the 2020s? - chvid
So the 2010s were an uninterrupted bull-market in stocks and had Netflix delivering +4.000% in return. What will the best performing S&amp;P500 stock of the 2020s?
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ibaikov
Writing this for myself to check in few years:

Energy breakthrough making it cheaper - everything needs energy to function,
that's probably an obvious pick.

Internet in rural places - access to internet is needed for everything: new
jobs, entertainment, services, goods etc. If there'll be a way to access
internet in rural places all over the world - it'll probably be one of the
best companies (thinking starlink or something similar, since preferably
you'll need low latency).

Content production or content delivery - people will always want
entertainment, ie games, movies or streams. It is very far from ideal both in
production and delivery. Solving it will give insane reach and insane amounts
of money.

Reimagination of hiring and changing professions.

Probably another social network - people are not satisfied, someone has to
try.

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rahulchhabra07
> Probably another social network - people are not satisfied, someone has to
> try.

What do you expect out of the new social network?

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psv1
> What will the best performing S&P500 stock of the 2020s?

If you had asked the same question 10 years ago, no one would have guessed
Netflix... because it wasn't in the S&P500 at the time.

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robjan
If we knew then it wouldn't return 4k%. Anything that's already known is
priced in.

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xtracto
My take is on health tech related companies. Similar to frequency therapeutics
and their fx322. I think this decade we will see the commoditisation of health
improvements.

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tomhoward
This probably isn't the right audience for a discussion involving speculation
about speculation :)

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chvid
It is a once a decade question so I am hoping it is alright ...

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derision
AMD and many other semiconductors. I'm up 500% on my semiconductor portfolio
and it's still early, there's a lot of emerging smaller companies getting
involved now, from FPGAs to potential x86 competitors. The foundries and
supply chain are doing great too

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PascLeRasc
I'm putting together a spreadsheet of semiconductor and other hardware
manufacturing stocks and weighting them by Glassdoor rankings of company
culture, those will be my long-term picks. So far Analog Devices and Cirrus
Logic are looking very strong. And Apple of course.

~~~
derision
I've been building a position in Lattice since $6, it's $19 today. Jim
Anderson left AMD to be CEO there. I bought on the chance there's a future
merge/acquisition but they're doing great work regardless

~~~
PascLeRasc
Wow, you might be right, but I've never seen a P/E ratio that high (125). Do
you think it might be due for a correction?

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kangnkodos
MCD - McDonalds will manage to eke out a small gain over the decade, and be
the winner of the 2020's.

Following a recession, all new investors will panic and withdraw all their
money and keep it out for years. They didn't know the market could be down two
years in a row. Boomers reach a phase in their lives where they are only
taking money out of the stock market, and spending it on Chinese goods.
Inflation picks up, and smart money moves from stocks to gold and then bonds.
This combination will lead to one of the worst decades for stocks since the
great depression. 2028 and 2029 sees money starting to go back into the
market. But the decade as a whole sees low gains.

But even in a recession, people still treat themselves by eating out at
McDonalds and their new $5 Keto menu.

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p1esk
Some AI startup.

~~~
psv1
Very unlikely.

1\. The probability of some paradigm changing breakthrough in AI over the next
10 years - the kind that can potentially give you the massive market returns -
is extremely low.

2\. The breakthroughs that will happen will most likely come from the big
companies with massive budgets and talented research teams.

AI startup are fighting a losing battle.

~~~
p1esk
What you said has always been true, in every field.

Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Netflix, Facebook - all of them competed with big
companies when they started and none of them relied on any single paradigm
changing breakthrough, yet they managed to change paradigms.

