
On the Future Computer Era: Modification of the American Character (1968) - dredmorbius
https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P3780.html
======
katzenjam
Extraordinary that the author of this prophetic piece of social commentary was
also one of the inventors of packet switching!

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Baran](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Baran)

The diagrams of centralised, decentralised and distributed networks from his
1963 RAND paper "Introduction to Distributed Communications" will be familiar
to many.

[https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/www/external/pubs/rese...](https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/www/external/pubs/research_memoranda/RM3420/fig1.GIF)

Here's the paper. If you ever hear someone say the Internet was designed to
survive a nuclear strike, this is the research they're talking about.

[https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM3420.html](https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM3420.html)

~~~
dredmorbius
As I've said previously: the next time someone asks "who could have predicted
the downsides of the Internet?", you can tell them: the guy who invented it,
in the 1960s.

------
drefanzor
I know people that committed crimes in the 60s-70s-80s and were convicted but
no one would ever know because the record keeping at the time was temporal.

My one felony from 12 years ago for smoking pot in public has cost me more
money/jobs/promotions/relationships from Google searches and background checks
than anything imaginable [in my opinion].

I believe that many criminals simply go back to crime since they're unhireable
now that information is at everyone's fingertips.

Debt to society is never paid anymore. We have the Chinese "social credit
system" in the U.S.; it's simply not announced the way theirs is.

~~~
alangibson
What state? Look in to asking/applying for a pardon if it really was just
possession.

~~~
drefanzor
Arizona; they do not pardon felonies. They will let you "restore your rights"
after a number of years; which I have done, but it was expensive and required
representation. I can vote, but I can't do much else.

~~~
pbourke
Why is it not unconstitutional in the US to disenfranchise those with a
criminal record who have served out their sentence?

~~~
zcid
The disenfranchisement is seen as part of the sentence. Traditionally, the
crimes deserving of this were very serious such as murder, rape, felony
robbery, etc. The people committing these crimes were considered as having
violated the social contract in such a manner that society could no longer
trust them.

Unfortunately, many less serious offences have been classified as more serious
in order to be "hard on crime" leading to many generally trustworthy citizens
losing rights.

------
johnohara
Page 9, The New Character Of The Citizen

 _" Those who have fallen from the rope, either accidentally or deliberately,
will find society not to their liking and won't have much to lose in open
hostility. These will be the alienated citizens of tomorrow."_

Page 1 Footnote:

 _" This Paper was presented at the MIT Club of Northern California in San
Francisco, 27 February 1968."_

Geez. The Tet Offensive had occurred a month earlier, The Monterey Pop
Festival 8 months earlier. The Jefferson Airplane, Grateful Dead, Who,
Hendrix, Joplin, etc. were all just starting out. MLK and RFK were still
addressing crowds of listeners and the DNC in Chicago was 6 months away.

Computers generated enormous heat, required 30 and 60 amp power, and filled
rooms wall-to-wall.

Abstracting the ideas presented in this paper with everything else going on in
the world is a testament to just how serious he viewed his role in developing
the use of communications and information technology. He didn't care a wit
about cat videos. He cared about whether quantitative decision making
contributed to hopelessness, despair and extreme anti-social behavior.

~~~
fit2rule
> He cared about whether quantitative decision making contributed to
> hopelessness, despair and extreme anti-social behavior.

Makes one wonder, how tall the giants on whose shoulders we rest, really are.

I mean, callous and anti-social behaviour existed before computers came about.
Computers are a force multiplier for almost everything at which they are
applied.

Page 11:

" _It may be appropriate that our profession, not normally given to
introspection, start to examine its own role to better appreciate the
contribution we might make. I believe those who understand future technology
have an obligation to act at least as an early warning system to the rest of
society._ "

Indeed, it seems those 'future technology' wizards need to constantly remind
themselves of such duties... and the delicate quandary is that what is old,
becomes new again meanwhile.

------
bdowling
Excerpt:

> From the earliest age the new child of America will probably be counseled
> to: "This above all--play it cool; keep your nose clean; don't take chances;
> do what you're told; don't argue with authority. And remember: _nothing you
> do will ever be forgotten_ and anything can be held against you. . . . Great
> pressure will be placed on American citizens to transform from free spirits
> who do not fear living their lives as men (with the assurance that if one
> fails one can always try again) into a new nation of tightrope walkers.

------
dredmorbius
This is just one of numerous monographs written by Paul Baran (co-)inventor of
packet switching, and cofounder of the Institute for the Future (IFTF).

I'd stumbled across these a couple of years ago and was proufoundly struck by
Baran's thoughts and concerns. The entire set of his writings at RAND have
been generously put online for free access:

[https://www.rand.org/pubs/authors/b/baran_paul.html](https://www.rand.org/pubs/authors/b/baran_paul.html)

There's very little from today's discussion not present in earlier periods.

------
alangibson
> A warning that unintended but disastrous effects on society have resulted
> from improved and computerized recordkeeping, owing to (1) the habit of
> limiting the number of variables considered to those easily quantified, (2)
> the tendency to use records and scores instead of judgment, and (3) the use
> of information to maximize private profit without regard to the damage
> inflicted by everybody doing this at once.

Sound familiar to anyone?

------
jstewartmobile
In the old days, they murdered prophets.

Today we are more efficient, and just bury their words in haystacks.

------
zeveb
Well, that’s prophetic.

> Of course, a paper degree never made an engineer, but it does eliminate the
> necessity for the personnel manager to be able to think.

I'm honestly surprised folks were talking about credentialism back in 1968.
Almost like they were just as smart as we are _grin_

