
H-1B: Government issues first-ever official estimate of visa population in U.S. - hanging
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/06/26/h-1b-government-issues-first-ever-official-estimate-of-visa-population-in-u-s/
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russellbeattie
The H-1B program definitely needs more regulation to prevent abuse by
companies (especially when it comes to salary negotiations). But if anything
we should increase the number - it's not like those people are just going to
not work if they don't come to the U.S. They'll just work in different
countries, either driving more offshoring of labor by American companies, or
just competing with them directly. It's in the U.S.'s best interest as a whole
to get as many of the best and the brightest in the world to work here, and
then do everything we can to get them to stay.

Currently, 48M+ people in the U.S. were born outside the U.S. and we welcome a
larger total number (like 1.2M+) of immigrants per year than any other country
in the world. By far - it's like double the closest country easily, year in
and year out. Basically all of Western Europe combined. Might as well have a
lot of them be PhDs and other highly skilled/educated people.

Besides, half of Silicon Valley was started by immigrants or children of
immigrants - maybe more. In my experience, third+ generation Americans tend to
take what they have for granted. If you've worked your ass off and crossed the
world to get to the U.S., you're the type of person we want here. It's been
that way for literally generations. To quote Hamilton (which I just saw this
weekend), "Immigrants. They get the job done."

~~~
29athrowaway
H-1B1 is not the visa type for the best and brightest. That visa type is EB-1.

H-1B is about skills in high demand not extraordinary ability.

Many personal friends of mine are H-1B and they would not be even considered
the best or brightest in their own household.

Of course, you have to be somewhat smart to meet the basic requirements:
bachelor's degree or equivalent. But that does not mean you are among the
_best_.

~~~
frostburg
I have a friend with an EB-1 visa. She's good ("alien of exceptional ability")
at her job I suppose, which is being a porn actress. Somewhat hilariously it
was rather easy for her to meet the criteria (international prizes, being
highly paid compared to peers, commercial success, being published in media
etc.).

~~~
bitbckt
More anecdata:

I’ve worked with a handful of EB-1 holders. I wouldn’t qualify a single one as
“exceptional.” Fine coworkers, sure, but to a one the justification for EB-1
strained credulity.

I have however worked with several H1-B holders of whom I would say the
opposite.

~~~
29athrowaway
The spirit of the visa is for Nobel prizes, Olympic medals and such, but in
practice, it is a visa for people with immigration lawyers of exceptional
ability.

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baby
The H-1B system is terrible. I applied twice to it while I was on an
internship visa, and ended up not getting through the lottery and had to leave
the US. Then had to wait a year and a half to get a greencard in order to come
back.

~~~
ideals
Is it worth it?

The more I read about this the more I question if it is actually worth the
trouble. However I am a US citizen, something which in these conversations
make me realize how lucky (privileged) I am to not endure this

~~~
ardit33
Of course.... for many it is, even though it is very abusive and a terrible
system. Let's be honest, it is a modern interpretation of 19th century 'in-
tenured servitude'. It is almost Feudal system by nature.

It is very similar to workers having to 'pay their immigration' debts, while
not directly, but by tying the visa to an employe, and making hard to move
employers if you are going through the green card process (it can reset you
green card process in many cases).

Who knew, the feudal system if live and well, in the 21st century. If you
don't like it, banishment/expulsion from the community. (aka, deportation) to
where you come from.

It is something that many put up, for a better life. If you are in the 'non
capped' countries, usually it is few years to endure it until you get the
green card, but for the caped countries, it can take decades to get the green
card.

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jacobriis
Looks like about 25% of software developers (broadly defined) are on H1B
visas.

254k/365k of H1B petitions in 2017 were for computer occupations (those are
predominantly in software development and computer programming). If we assume
the proportion of actual workers is similar to petitions, we would assume
there are about 400k H1B workers in software. About 1.5 million were employed
in software development and computer programming 2018.

~~~
woobar
Not sure why you only count two occupations from the BLS list [1] Total of all
Computer and IT jobs in 2018 was 4+ millions.

[1] [https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-
technology/...](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-
technology/home.htm)

~~~
jacobriis
H1B petitions in computer occupations are predominantly in software
development and computer programming.

About 30% are for "computer systems analyst" or "computer occupations, other"
but I don't really buy most of those petitions aren't actually for devs. All
software developers on TN visas (NAFTA/USMCA visas) are officially "computer
systems analysts" for example.

~~~
woobar
Not sure where are you getting 32% from. The table on p. 15 has "Systems
Analysis And Programming" at 56% of all petitions. Other computer related
occupations are 10.4%

[https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/reports-
studies/Ch...](https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/reports-
studies/Characteristics_of_Specialty_Occupation_Workers_H-1B_Fiscal_Year_2018.pdf)

~~~
jacobriis
"Systems Analysis And Programming" (62.2%) and "Computer Occupations, Other"
(8.4%) are together 70.6% in 2017. That's the approximately the same
population as "254k/365k of H1B petitions in 2017 were for computer
occupations" which is about ~70%.

So 86% of of "Systems Analysis And Programming" and "Computer Occupations,
Other" are "Systems Analysis And Programming".

If you want to assume "Computer Occupations, Other" are not devs, which is not
a good assumption in my opinion then fine only 86% are devs.

~~~
woobar
Why are we switching to 2017 suddenly? Still, where are the 32% came from in
your previous comment?

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jypepin
"estimate"? How can they not know exactly how many people have H1bs?

~~~
vikramkr
They know how many have h1bs, but not how many of them are actually in the US.
Which is just amazing. We need to bend over and let them take our privacy away
so they can fight the terrorists apparently, but the same government doesnt
even keep track of how many h1b holders are in the country? If the data of who
every citizen is calling on their phones is so important for national
security- how is it not worth the government's time to collect and analyze
data to figure out who is actually in the country?

~~~
enraged_camel
When was the last time you traveled outside the USA? Did you notice how
Customs and Border Patrol did not check and stamp your passport, like they do
for incoming travelers?

Therefore, since there is no way to detect when an H1B worker leaves the
country, there is no easy way to estimate the number of H1Bs currently in the
country.

~~~
woobar
Common carriers used to collect paper I-94 forms when visitors were checking
in for their return flights. Now they transmit this information to CBP
electronically.

This site will let you search your own travel history with both arrival and
departure dates - [https://i94.cbp.dhs.gov/I94/#/history-
search](https://i94.cbp.dhs.gov/I94/#/history-search)

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alexmingoia
End the H1B and other work restrictions. Let Americans hire foreigners freely,
without fees and paperwork, without arbitrary limits, without inhumane
processes that take years.

Make America free again.

~~~
asdff
I wish borders and citizenship didn't really exist. Just pay taxes to your
current locality. It should be as simple to travel, live, or work between any
country and the U.S. as it is between any two U.S. states.

~~~
magicnubs
Make governments compete in a free market like companies. It's an interesting
idea, and compelling on its face. But that leaves open the question of how a
government could ever be expected to invest in it's people. The incentive for
other countries would be to not invest as much in education of their own,
since anyone could up and move to a country with lower taxes immediately once
they finished school. Or they wouldn't invest in healthcare, since you could
just "move" to a country that has healthcare, get treated, and then move back
to your low-tax country immediately after.

I expect we'd end up with a system pretty similar to the one we have now, with
each country demanding a certain "investment" from the prospective citizen
before they be granted the benefits of citizenship (e.g. certain number of
years spent there) or that they are bringing something valuable to the table
(e.g. in-demand skills or qualifications).

~~~
alexmingoia
I don’t want a government that invests in me, my education, my healthcare, my
retirement, tells me what to do, steals my money and gives it to others, and
changes the rules every year.

I want a company that protects my life and property, at a fixed cost, on a
contractual basis. There are many others like me, who see the purpose of
government as protecting life and property, not as central planners ruling
every aspect of their subjects’ lives.

~~~
magicnubs
A government _is_ basically a company, in the sense that they are both just
groups of people associating for their collective self-interest. The real
difference, at least in the US, is that the government is much more
transparent and everyone is granted an equal voting share at birth
(theoretically). Those are the biggest differences in the recipe, the outcomes
differ because of those ingredients.

I don't see how doing away with our current company and hoping that more
opaque groups with more concentrated voting power could be expected to produce
any better results. It would essentially guarantee extreme concentration of
power and wealth. A group that includes everyone that are under it's power,
and taxation of those members, are the only ways to avoid the prisoner's
dilemma and ensure that everyone is contributing to things that are beneficial
to everyone instead of competing in ways that are detrimental to everyone
except the owners of the group. If the only situation the central government
could ever intervene in was direct threats to life and property (I assume you
are including contract enforcement?), then there is no incentive for companies
to avoid social traps [1]; anti-competitive behavior, price gouging,
indentured servitude (they signed the contract, after all!), pollution...
there is no amount of external cost too great as long as there is even a
modicum of internally-captured benefit. It makes the game not even zero-sum,
but negative-sum. The basic argument is that avoiding these issues in
education, healthcare and retirement are all already forms of protecting
everyone's life, property, and liberty. For instance, the only reason you're
even able to earn "your" money that you claim the government steals is because
of roads the government has built. What's to stop a company from buying the
sidewalk and road outside of your property and charging you half of your
salary as a subscription fee to use it? In fact, allow a company to buy up the
road networks across the nation and charge as much as people are willing to
pay; they'd make tons and tons of money, but introduce huge friction into the
entire economy (and likely destroy GDP).

Government control can cause problems and create inefficiencies, certainly. It
can create moral hazards too. And there is an argument to be made that the
control that the government currently has is too much, and dialing it back
could cause a wellspring of beneficial innovation. I think that's likely the
case in some industries (healthcare, especially). However, it would also cause
a huge surge in innovation in negative ways too; there's a lot of low-hanging
fruit in unsavory areas that companies haven't pursued because it's been
illegal to do so. Throwing out nearly all of the oversight, checks and
balances that have been devised can only make sense if you completely ignore
the outsize effects that everyone benefits from due to the controls that we do
have in place. The benefits are often invisible (or nearly invisible), so they
can be hard to see and so they are easy to ignore in crafting the ideal world
in one's head. When thinking of the government, we are naturally more often
going to think of the times it's failed us. I just urge you to reconsider.
There are places that are run on principles closer to the libertarian ideal,
and they tend to be run by power-hungry madmen and be much worse places to
live than democracies unless you're at the very, very, very top.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_trap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_trap)

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rpiguy
The H-1B program is terrible and needs to be reformed. It is supposed to
temporarily shore up the supply of critically skilled workers that are in
demand.

While it does this, when the program was envisioned no one imagined H-1B visa
holders working here for 10+ years.

If only there were a word for the importation of minority labor and locking
them into employment with their sponsor, effectively reducing their
negotiating power for salary to zero...

Not to mention by artificially suppressing H-1B salaries over time, it puts
negative wage pressure on US workers in similar positions.

I believe H-1B workers should be offered green cards if they are here for more
than 2-3 years, so they can negotiate on equal footing with US citizens.

~~~
arcticbull
> If only there were a word for the importation of minority labor and locking
> them into employment with their sponsor, effectively reducing their
> negotiating power for salary to zero...

It really doesn't do that. To be fair, H-1Bs are supposed to be in-demand
specialty workers, to meet the spirit of the program. That means they have, by
definition, negotiating power. I've spent a lot of time in H-1 status and I
have definitely negotiated my compensation -- with both current and
prospective employers.

This data is available for you to search, and it's all public record. You can
find my salary in the database. [1]

[1] [https://h1bdata.info/](https://h1bdata.info/)

~~~
ardit33
This is so wrong, it is comical. You have a lot less leverage, especially if
you want/are in the process of getting a green card.

As a former H1B holder (and currently on a Green Card), being on a H-1B has
prevented me:

1\. Not accepting a higher salary offer, but going with a more 'safe option'

2\. Having to negotiate for asap Green Card application, vs. salary

3\. Not being able to accept a promotion to a manager, as I had a ongoing
Green Card application as engineer/ic, and that would jeopardize my green card
application

4\. Not being able to create, or join a very early startup

5\. Having high anxiety, for all the paperwork required, and the RFE recieved
after switching jobs...

6\. Inability to switch jobs, if you have a Perm/Green Card application
ongoing, as it will rest it (even for non-capped countries, it might take 2+
years for the whole process to go through)

etc... etc..

You must be young and naive if you believe being on a H1B doesn't suppress
one's salary, or potential.

The current H1B system is in-tenured servitude, and a continuation of old
Feudal System, by tying the ability to work for a class of workers to their
employer. Yes, you can switch employers, but at great costs, and at risking
eventual deportation (if you don't play the immigration game right, and get
the Perm/Green Card in time).

~~~
Clubber
Not to be pedantic, but the term is indentured servitude, at least in regards
to Europeans coming to North America.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indentured_servitude](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indentured_servitude)

