
Tech workers consider escaping Silicon Valley’s sky-high rents - kjhughes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-14/tech-workers-consider-escaping-silicon-valley-s-sky-high-rents
======
aripickar
I'm pretty bearish on the pandemic actually leading to massive change in the
number of people permanently working from home. My boss put out a survey a
week or two ago among my org (30 or so people), and 70% said that they want to
work from the office, full time, 20% said some time or most of the time, and
10% said fully remote. And this is a group of people that would be largely
well suited to working from home during the pandemic (young, no kids, etc). I
just don't think that this will change much.

There is just too much detrimental effect one one's career from not being seen
at the office. For a company that's not fully remote (i.e. gitlab), people who
are fully remote are going to fall behind in promotions, etc. There's just not
enough benefit for people who don't hate the bay area.

~~~
_jal
> young, no kids, etc

There is your major reason for that survey result. Companies with median-older
workforces will see more enthusiasm for remote work.

~~~
capableweb
I read it the other way. Only people who are young with no distractions at
home, favor working at home. People who usually have family members at home,
get too distracted compared to a office environment, to prefer working at
home.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Mid 30s, partner, two kids, will only work from home. Will not consider a
commute or an office. Have worked remotely for almost a decade. Doing the
math, I've saved almost 3360 hours by not having to commute (~2 hr/workday),
not to mention wear and tear on a vehicle and the associated commute costs.

When my office door is closed, everyone knows I'm "at work". If you don't have
a separate physical space where you only work, I can see how this might be a
challenge.

~~~
cortesoft
Who is taking care of the kids when the 'door is closed'? I guess it depends
on how old your kids are... I have a 4 year old and a 1 year old, so someone
has to be watching them all the time.

Also, my house only has 3 bedrooms, and the kids take two of them. My office
is in the corner of the living room with no walls. I can't lock anyone out of
it.

Your house has to be large enough to support a home office to work from home
full time.

Although if I wasn't living in this city I could probably afford a bigger
house... we pay a premium to live within 10 minutes of work, so we don't have
to face that 'two hour commute' you speak of.

~~~
iso1631
> Who is taking care of the kids when the 'door is closed'?

Same person taking care of them when you're at work. Except for 3 hours a day
less

~~~
nradov
Most day care centers are still closed.

~~~
iso1631
You miss the point -- if you send your kids off to school/daycare/whatever
while you commute an hour to an office, spend 8 hours there, plus socialising,
then an hour back, you can send your kids off to school/daycare/whatever for 8
hours.

------
raldi
“I think it's fair to say that Silicon Valley is dead.” —Altavista founder,
1993

[https://groups.google.com/forum/#!original/alt.folklore.comp...](https://groups.google.com/forum/#!original/alt.folklore.computers/bvE0Ka5nCnM/NAIOQnrEyCAJ)

(Note: Google Groups links don’t work on mobile unless you Request Desktop
Site in Chrome)

~~~
rajnathani
Interesting, however he did have a point about prop 13.

------
epistasis
An evergreen headline...

In the 90s I remember hearing this too. Use the high salary and property value
increases to build a nestegg, but keep an eye out for other geographic
opportunities because the locals are determined to keep you out, as a class,
even if they are friendly one to one.

These days, the property value scam has been going so long that new high wage
workers are often locked out for many years, to the benefit of all prior
arrivals. But same story otherwise.

~~~
mikestew
_In the 90s I remember hearing this too._

What, that due to the fact that we're all working from home because of a
global pandemic, and my employer says I can WFH long-term, I'm thinking about
moving out of SV?

You must run with a different crowd than I do, because I don't recall a single
person saying that in the 90s.

~~~
epistasis
The headline is the evergreen part; certainly the specifics are different now
then they were back then!

Edit: also, check out Raldi's link to a 1993 post for complaints about housing
costs and more:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23181981](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23181981)

(That said, the housing costs are far worse now then in 1993 on a wage to land
price basis, I hear!)

~~~
ghaff
I didn't pursue a few job options during the 90s in the Bay Area in part
because of housing costs and companies that weren't offering enough to cover
the difference. As you say, relative prices are much worse now. But Bay Area
prices were high even then.

------
subsubzero
One thing this doesn't mention is the pay cuts that happen if you do decide to
relocate to cheaper areas. Both me and my Wife's company have pay bands based
on geographical region(most employees know nothing about this and most
companies employ these salary COL changes for relocation) and certain regions
you can take a big pay cut. Say your salary in the bay area is 100k for
example, move to the South, say Florida and it typically drops 30%(typically
as low as they chop your salary) so your new salary is 70k, Denver area is 15%
paycut etc. These numbers change somewhat from company to company but they do
exist for most companies and should be factored in.

~~~
daenz
What's the rationale for this?

~~~
troydavis
Currently, the market for location-based labor is deeper than the market for
location-agnostic labor, so employers assume that their competition is local -
and often it is.

That's less true for the top 20% or so of tech candidates. A person with known
skills and a good network can obtain offers from multiple remote-friendly
companies today. There's already a location-ignorant market for their skills
(probably not at San Francisco comp, but also not at rural North Dakota comp).

As more remote jobs are available, more people will receive multiple remote
offers, that is, they'll find a deeper location-ignorant market for their
skills. Over time, one would expect this location-ignorant comp to settle
around the actual value added.

(Longer explanation in a related thread:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18900072#18903795](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18900072#18903795))

~~~
daenz
Interesting, thanks for the reading. I am tempted now to get a higher salary
in an expensive location, work on-site and then remotely from that location,
then quietly move away without telling anyone. As long as my hours are the
same and work quality don't change, nobody should be the wiser.

~~~
tyre
you have to have payroll run in the state where you work

so you couldn't do this without either updating with HR or tax fraud

~~~
daenz
Cost of living within a state can vary pretty greatly. eastern vs western
Washington for example. Spokane vs Seattle: [https://www.bestplaces.net/cost-
of-living/spokane-wa/seattle...](https://www.bestplaces.net/cost-of-
living/spokane-wa/seattle-wa/150000)

------
zaidf
People won't continue making their current SF salary by working out of
Farmville, Ohio. I think this point is missed by many

I fully expect Twitter, for example, to come out with salary adjustment
policies for people who want to work from home from an entirely different city
and state

~~~
ransom1538
Salary based on your locale even though everyone is remote: hilarious. "Oh you
live in Alabama you get 60k" "Oh you live in Manhattan on 65th street that is
150k". This will backfire into a political hell.

~~~
smnrchrds
Gitlab famously does this, is very open about it [0], and in general has
enjoyed more praise for their _all remote_ structure than hell for their
differing salaries. Maybe the companies won't rush to cut salaries of current
employees who go remote and move elsewhere. But I fully expect them to offer
new hires different salaries based on their location. After all, they already
do that with their non-remote offices. It's not like Google is paying the same
salaries to workers in their SF office and Toronto office.

[0] [https://about.gitlab.com/handbook/total-
rewards/compensation...](https://about.gitlab.com/handbook/total-
rewards/compensation/compensation-calculator/calculator/)

~~~
city41
Their SF salaries that anchor this tool seem pretty low. It states $160k for a
senior/staff level backend engineer and $185k for frontend.

~~~
true_religion
I would agree. Senior level developers in Virginia, can get 200k as a minimum.
The only downside I have found is that companies with high salaries either
have more difficult work, or poor work life balance.

------
dougmwne
It must be tempting to make even a short-term move out of the Bay area. If
your lease is coming due and you were planning on looking for a new place
anyway, why not move back in with family or get a short-term rental somewhere
further out. Rents will likely be going down over the next few years, not up,
so it's a terrible time to lock yourself into a new lease. And we can expect
re-opening to happen slowly, so there should be plenty of warning for most
workplaces before you're required to be in the office again. Based on my Zoom
calls, my co-workers have been fleeing the city, moving back in with parents,
moving into parents' second homes or picking up vacation rentals on the coast
or in the mountains.

~~~
timtam2
I live in SF but rented a vacation rental for May and June. No point to live
in my 600sqft condo when everything is closed and I can rent a 2000sqft house
with a pool for small change.

~~~
codemati
I'm planning to do the same. Put things into storage and get a better view.
Any advice finding a place?

~~~
dougmwne
Check airbnb, vrbo, craigslist, or if you're looking at a vacation hotspot,
local realtors often do monthly vacation rentals. Monthly rentals are often
much cheaper on a per-day basis than weekly rentals. Your SF rent is going to
go extremely far just about anywhere else. I am renting a 2br vacation house
on the beach for less than the price of studio.

------
valar_m
Christy Lake, chief people officer at Twilio:

> “It’s probably not great business practice to pay Bay Area comps in
> Michigan,” Lake says. And when it comes time to promote, would those
> employees have the same opportunity to advance as everybody else? “We need
> to think proactively,” she says.

So, in case anyone is applying to Twilio, heads up, I guess.

~~~
talmr
To be fair -

I used to live in Ohio and my parents and I lived in a 2 bedroom apartment
that cost $600/mo about fifteen years ago. You could buy a 5 bedroom house for
$250k. The school district I attended was also top notch. It was a great
family area and I remember the mall, rec center, and numerous parks.

I checked zillow recently and 5 bedroom homes are ~$300k and apartments are
about $800/mo.

At the time, my dad was the sole breadwinner and he was earning about $40k a
year.

I'm out in California right now making a comfortable six figure salary, but I
can't really afford a 1+ million dollar house in a good area where I can send
my future kids to school.

If I was earning even $100k a year, I could comfortably afford to live in that
Ohio suburb about 15 miles from a major metro.

~~~
luckylion
So if you lived in that Ohio suburb, your code quality would be reduced vs
living in California?

~~~
reidjs
I'm going to take an unpopular/wrong sounding opinion and say it's possible.
If you leave the bubble filled with world-class programmers, techies and
entrepreneurs, it's possible your code quality will be 'reduced' because you
don't see the value in it as much compared to taking care of your kids,
building up your local community, etc. Peer pressure is important and if your
peers are teachers, cops, store managers, etc would you care more about
learning the ins and outs of the newest JS framework or about what dishes to
make at the BBQ you're throwing this weekend?

------
davidw
Another thought: those workers and their companies could contribute to
changing the situation in Silicon Valley and the rest of California:
[https://cayimby.org/](https://cayimby.org/)

Without a change in housing policy in the US, this just becomes a big game of
musical chairs:

Guy moves from Silicon Valley to Portland, Oregon. Portland gets too expensive
for some other family, who move to Boise, Idaho. And so on...

~~~
throwaway0a5e
>Guy moves from Silicon Valley to Portland, Oregon. Portland gets too
expensive for some other family, who move to Boise, Idaho. And so on...

Yup. It's a fundamental values problem that can't be fixed without a major
ideological shift. A large number of people do not believe that people have
the right to do more or less whatever they want on their property. Until that
is fixed you're always going to have people saying "but you shouldn't be able
to build that there".

~~~
lliamander
Another option could be that living in a big city becomes less necessary.

People flocked to these cities in the first place because they were seen as
sources of social opportunities (jobs, venture capital, social networks). I
would like to see the Internet disaggregate those opportunities.

~~~
davidw
I've worked remotely, and for creative, collaborative work, and chance
meetings and that sort of thing... I still think offices and cities win.

------
rootedbox
"In 2013, Yahoo Inc. decided its lax policies on working from home had
prevented it from innovating and required everyone to come back to the
office."

\-- and now in 2020 Yahoo is an innovative power house...

~~~
shuckles
Just have to be more innovative than the counterfactual, which was probably
the case.

------
vdnkh
I feel like most of HN is missing something here, of no fault of their own
because they're not in my demographic (20-something yuppie). Young people want
to live in cities. They're fun, exciting, and enable a robust social life.
Moving to rural Ohio or Michigan, or even a "lesser" metro in the midwest is
not the same as living in SF or NYC in terms of social opportunity. I work
remote and I live in Brooklyn and I think its great. I don't need a car or a
big house. But unlike most of the commenters here, I don't have kids or a
wife. Essentially, I put my money towards a better social life.

I'm not saying that my way is better, it's just that the whole "move to a big
cheap house in the midwest, bro" line that HN loves to throw out is not for
everyone.

~~~
bluGill
What do you get in SF that you can't get in Des Moines? I lived in Des Moines
until last year and I find most answers to this question are wrong: you can in
fact get it in Des Moines. Sometimes Des Moines is even better, though I'll
admit in most cases the vastly smaller size limits quantity of choices.

~~~
pb7
Diverse younger people from all around the world that are trying to reach
their full potential.

~~~
bluGill
You get that in Des Moines. Not nearly as many but they are there.

~~~
pb7
I have nothing against Des Moines so I'm trying to tread lightly here but I
have a hard time believing someone from say London, Amsterdam, Hong Kong, or
Sydney would move across the world to end up in Des Moines at even a fraction
of the rate as New York City, San Francisco, Los Angeles, etc. It's a fine
place, I'm sure, but it lacks global pull that would bring in talented people
from all corners of the earth.

~~~
bluGill
I agree there isn't much global pull. That is the point, even without any
global pull there is a diversity of people in the city. Not as many as SF by
any means, but on a small scale it is there.

------
mikeryan
When I read these I feel its way to early to start making determinations on
whether "Working for Home" is here to stay.

It's going to work for some and not for others, but a few exceptional months
with no clear forecasts on what happens next makes long term decisions
terribly difficult. I'll be fascinated to see how this workout for Google and
Microsoft coming into Q1 of 2021 compared to how things worked out for Yahoo!
when they banned working from home a few years ago.

I may be more of a bear on this than most on here but I don't think working
from home is going to be quite as successful as many think.

------
__sy__
"[Living in] a one-bedroom rental in South San Francisco, a short commute from
Facebook Inc.’s offices in Menlo Park"

\-- might want to edit the "short" part. I think that's at least a 1-hour
commute, EACH way :)

------
bradlys
Meh - people are going to be experiencing a wake up call in a couple years
when they lose that job and need another. I really doubt remote based jobs
will go up in income now. I expect them to fall - if anything. (Increased
supply of workers wanting to go remote cause housing too expensive in big
cities - can you imagine how many people are craving a bigger home now?)

Can't imagine how devastating it will be when you see your household income
fall from $500k+/yr to $200k/yr. Junior ain't going to private schools
anymore.

------
TrackerFF
Living and purchasing a home in a very high COL city feels like a marathon.
You know that you won't have paid off your home until many decades later, and
you need to maximize your earnings, while minimizing your risks of becoming
unemployed. In other words, it can motivate you to become really good at
something, but at the same time inducing a lot of stress.

Living in cheap areas, feels very different. I recently move back home, and
could pay off my home with two years worth of salary. That's it, no mortgage
or anything - just the occasional renovations / upgrades. On the other hand,
now that I'm not chained to a mortgage, I need to invest more of my money - in
the case I want to move back to somewhere expensive.

Job market isn't anywhere near the same, and salaries are much more
compressed. Mid 6 figure salaries are unheard-of, unless you own a company.
But it doesn't feel like a rat-race, where you need to hustle all the time.

------
Finnucane
If even a smallish fraction—say 15 or 20 percent— of the workers who could
move and work remotely do so, that could have a pretty significant impact on
local economies. Even if wages adjust some, you’d still see essentially a
redistribution of wealth from highly concentrated areas to those less so. A
shift of say, 2 percent in apartment vacancy rates is nontrivial. On the whole
it could be a net positive, for individuals and for stressed cities.

~~~
shuckles
1 in every 5 employees relocating is a huge proportion.

------
esotericn
The pairing of working in an office with a hellish commute is a bit odd.

Maybe SF really is a parallel universe. Here in the UK, basically anyone
earning a tech salary can afford to live within 10-20 mins cycle of work, even
if they want children.

You won't have a home with a garden and all the rest of the knick knacks,
sure, but that's a different discussion.

~~~
TulliusCicero
Most techies in SF could afford to live relatively close to work, or without
roommates, or both.

The reason why they don't is still due to the high rent though. When living
with a roommate or two, or living a bit further away means you get an extra
$1000+ a month to spend on other things, that can be very enticing.

~~~
phendrenad2
This isn't true, at least of all the tech workers I've worked with. None of
them could afford to live within a 30min commute of a downtown SF startup.

~~~
djannzjkzxn
I can see how this would be true for a ramen-stage startup but it’s not true
in the normal startup job market where engineers get paid six figures. Lots of
good places available downtown for <2k per bedroom. If you don’t want a
roommate you can get a decent small apartment for 3k or a lower-end place for
2k in other neighborhoods. You don’t need to leave the city, and you don’t
save all that much by doing so anyway. Good neighborhoods outside the city are
also expensive.

One good reason to leave the city would be if you prioritize renting a house
with a 6000 sqft suburban lot, which you can’t find in the city. Another would
be if you have kids and want a good school district.

------
city41
I am moving from San Jose to Michigan on Saturday. My company has allowed me
to continue working remotely. I know of a few others doing the same.

~~~
confounded
Care to talk about your motivations? Why Michigan?

~~~
city41
Mostly just for personal reasons. My wife and I are both from there and our
family is there too.

------
tylerjwilk00
First, these are NOT normal work from home times. This is currently the worst
time to experience what work from home is truely like.

Second, if your job requires a lot of face to face interaction them WFH will
NOT be a good fit.

Third, if your org tries to do remote communication in the same way it does
place based communication. It will not be a good fit.

BUT, if remote communication is first class citizen, conditions are back to
the normal state of 4 months ago, your job duties are well suited to
individual creative contributions, work from home CAN be a great fit.

------
starpilot
People are going to be moving Mountain House or Reno at farthest, not
Cleveland. Though the thought of buying a literal mansion near Boise with your
techbux is amusing.

~~~
Apocryphon
Idaho has been receiving a huge influx of Californians.

[https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-11-10/go-
back-...](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-11-10/go-back-to-
california-wave-of-newcomers-fuels-backlash-in-boise)

[https://www.idahostatesman.com/opinion/editorials/article237...](https://www.idahostatesman.com/opinion/editorials/article237245439.html)

[https://www.businessinsider.com/why-millennials-are-
moving-f...](https://www.businessinsider.com/why-millennials-are-moving-from-
california-to-boise-idaho-2019-12)

~~~
starpilot
Yep. I think the overall migration as been: Bay Area -> Seattle -> Boise ->
Nevada?

------
brenden2
Desirable areas will always be (relatively) more expensive. Even if we see
significant deflation (which is unlikely given the scale of money printing),
these areas (NYC, SF) will probably remain expensive so long as they remain
significant culturally and economically. When it becomes uncool to live in SF
or NYC, then perhaps people will move to places like Wyoming en masse.

~~~
jurassic
The cultural amenities of cities are in serious jeopardy, generally. Many of
the restaurants, clubs, theaters, museums, bars, etc that make the city a
desirable place may never reopen.

~~~
esoterica
Restaurants and bars require very little capital to open (the low barrier to
entry explains why margins are so low in the industry). Even if many of the
existing restaurants go out of business, new ones will quickly open up once
the pandemic is over and people start going out again (which might take a
little while, to be fair).

------
vinay_ys
For the 20-30 something with no kids who are showing higher productivity
working from home, once the outdoor/social life returns to normal, their
productivity will drop.

They will want a dedicated office space and discipline of going to an office
to reattain that productivity. As a solution to this, we could have lots of
satellite offices for people to come in and work but teams are still
distributed and remote to each other. This could potentially maintain
productivity levels as well as avoid high rents and horrible commutes.

This could work only if everyone is still remote to each other relatively. The
moment a few of the team members are co-located in the same office, they start
having in-person meetings and can collaborate in person, that stark difference
people in office vs people remote will emerge. Then it all falls apart.

------
throwawaysea
It's not just about the rents and finances. Escaping Silicon Valley is also
escaping a monoculture. Yes, the Bay has diversity in one sense (for example
ethnic backgrounds), but in other ways (diversity of thought) it is very
uniform. Urban living is also just one way of living. It's not the way
everyone wants or needs to live, and those who want more breathing room can
seek that out if they can work remotely. Politics also vary by geographic
location, and those who are tired of issues like SF's lack of law enforcement
and constant problems with homeless drug addicts have more viable alternatives
now. Those who have families/friends in other places will be freer to live
near them. I think this is going to be great and hope to see all tech
companies adopt remote work.

~~~
paxys
Do you really think you're escaping "monoculture" by moving to Ohio?

~~~
Apocryphon
It would at least be a different monoculture. And depending on the city, even
less of one as East Coasters are fleeing their own respective sky-high rents
to Ohio:

[https://nypost.com/2018/04/25/ex-new-yorkers-are-flocking-
to...](https://nypost.com/2018/04/25/ex-new-yorkers-are-flocking-to-this-
midwest-sanctuary/)

~~~
asdff
I think people are imagining this will be pretty plug and play, but there will
be a shock for sure if your standards of living and expectations come from
larger and more diverse metros. I grew up in Cleveland, and lived in those
listed areas in Columbus. They feel small, like very small. The 'active'
walkable part of Columbus is like 2 miles on high street, where home prices
are the highest and continually higher with every year. North of this is Ohio
State, which I love but it's a weird place to hang out if you are over 25 and
a football game isn't going on. South of these two miles on high street are
downtown, which is empty after 5pm because it's all state government buildings
and offices, and the german village which is admittedly quaint but not worth
uprooting your life for imo, every city has a cute older area with $5 lattes.
The rest of the city is suburbs stretching out until it blurs with farmland,
indistinguishable from any of the other suburbs. Most of them don't even
bother building sidewalks they are so dependent on the car. Public transit in
Columbus is crap, basically a pity gesture from the city saying 'yes, we do
have buses' and that's about it.

Cleveland is an overall nicer city than Columbus. It has older bones and is
pretty well laid out on the east side with a few RTA rail lines. There are a
lot of older neighborhoods that date to when Rockefeller lived here and made
his fortune with Standard Oil along the riverbanks. You can get a mansion for
~$75k a bathroom right on the RTA line in Shaker Heights. The metropark system
is also enormous.

However, Cleveland never recovered from white flight. The population of the
greater metro area has been stagnant for 50 years, while the city proper has
lost half its population in that time. Despite the good bones, Cleveland feels
hollowed out as a result, and there is a lot of space now devoted to surface
parking lots that used to be an apartment building in a formerly lively
neighborhood. Still, there are a lot more walkable neighborhoods than Columbus
and more options for living, but the city isn't growing nearly as fast as
other metro areas and will not shore up the damage done to city life from
white flight in my lifetime imo. I'd say about half the people from my high
school class still live in Ohio, the rest took better positions elsewhere.

Coupled with the limited number of employers and therefore lack of jobs, and
the six months of depression (sometimes it would only snow once or twice, the
rest of winter everything will be grey and brown and muddy and dead, and
'scenic' autumn only lasts for like two weeks anyway), and I haven't looked
back since moving west. In terms of my career, physical health now that I can
be more active outdoors all year, and my mental health (Cleveland in
particular only gets 80 days of sunshine a year), this was the greatest
decision of my life. Plus I can actually get proper ethnic food, you should
see what they call a taco in Cleveland. If I want to visit, can't beat a 5hr
direct flight.

~~~
Apocryphon
Thanks for a very comprehensive description. It's a good response. Maybe
Pittsburgh compares better to Cleveland?

------
JoeAltmaier
I left a decade ago. And my standard of living went way up.

~~~
ruffrey
Where'd you go, if you don't mind me asking...?

~~~
JoeAltmaier
Midwest, college town, house in the country on 80 acres.

My kids grew up, they could walk around outside all day and still be at home.
They could invite friends to visit, do projects, shoot, saw, drive carts, dig
holes. All three are Eagle Scouts, Engineers, black belts.

Wife and I have 7 gardens plus landscaping projects. Two sheds 20X50, tractors
and implements. Orchard.

All for less than that old house in San Jose.

~~~
ruffrey
Incredible. I wonder, how different were sub-cultural an social aspects,
versus the Bay?

------
mips_avatar
I'm considering it. But I am pretty sure that once things open up, my office
culture is going back to one where all the important decisions get made in the
hallways after a meeting. Being remote in that scenario means you have no say,
and you miss out on important information.

~~~
city41
Being the only remote person on a team is really hard. I’ve both done it and
been on teams where someone else does it. It’s less than ideal for everyone.
It’s a constant nag that never goes away (oh did you remember to join the
hangout for Matt?) and pretty much no matter what you miss out on a good deal
of communication. I definitely think remote would work best when everyone is
doing it.

~~~
duderific
I'm really concerned about this. My Bay Area company is planning to go back to
the office soon, but my kids are still home so I need to be home to help out
with the child care. I'm one of the only ones on the team with little kids at
home, so I'm going to be "that guy" that they have to remember to dial in.
Hopefully the schools will get back open soon but it's not looking real good
for that.

------
rconti
Anecdotally, it surprises me how many people are still buying homes during the
pandemic.

Region-wide, prices fell 2.9% in the Bay Area in 2019; it "feels like" prices
merely held relatively steady, and the selling prices I'm seeing the past
month or so are on track with that.

------
schnevets
I know this article focused on established players, but I'm curious what the
pandemic means for early-phase startups based out of SV and NYC. When every
sales pitch and networking event is a Zoom call, you lose any benefit to
taking expensive space in a Mission District incubator.

If aspiring founders leave the city (even temporarily), they may still find
success, but are they going to relocate back to the pricey areas when it's
safe to open up?

I've spent the last 5 years hoping for a catalyst that moves tech out of the
two biggest players so it can actually help stimulate different regions of the
US. Maybe the quarantine will finally trigger this

~~~
gregwebs
I think a big factor to Silicon Valley is VCs wanting in person meetings with
founders and to have in person board meetings. If VCs realize they can take
pitches and do board meetings over Zoom they can start investing outside
Silicon Valley and startups don't have to start and then stay here.

------
lalaland1125
This could finally help solve the housing crisis in many of America's large
cities. Every employee who moves out frees up one apartment for everyone else.
30,000 employees leaving is equivalent to building 30,000 apartments.

~~~
mjg59
The number of tech workers in the bay who have zero roommates is a lot smaller
than you seem to think.

~~~
EVdotIO
Yeah, one of the reasons I left. A 30 year old with a 100k job needing
roommates is absurd.

------
mcguire
" _But the trend raises complicated questions. If employees move to a less
expensive location, should Twilio adjust their salaries accordingly? “It’s
probably not great business practice to pay Bay Area comps in Michigan,” Lake
says. And when it comes time to promote, would those employees have the same
opportunity to advance as everybody else? “We need to think proactively,” she
says._ "

I wouldn't sweat it. After the pandemic has died down, companies will be
requiring everybody back into the office and all those people moving to
Montana will be packing up again.

~~~
Apocryphon
Maybe companies will be forced to open offices in Billings if everyone is
moving to Montana.

------
egonschiele
I left SF a year ago to settle in the midwest. Best decision I ever made.

------
greendave
> Just as people can work from anywhere, employers can hire from anywhere.
> "The talent pool gets massive," he says. "Why would my employer pay me SF
> wages?"

This is sort of a non sequitur. These calculations are already happening and
becoming more common, regardless of whether some individuals choose to move or
not.

It's my hope that many people do move away though. Even setting aside the
horrible traffic and insane housing costs, it's just not healthy for the
region to be so highly dependent on tech jobs.

------
shibeouya
I can't think of anyone in my office who wants to permanently work from home.

We talk about it every week, and it's become clear that everyone is looking
forward to the day where offices reopen.

I really don't see this trend of people relocating. And for those considering
it, once they are made aware that salaries will scale with location it's
probably going to be a strong enough deterrent.

------
maxdo
How about competition, the biggest reason they got 200k+ a year was their
location. Now they will start competing with the non SV market.

------
hintymad
An honest question: isn't this what local governments want? I see cities and
counties implement two policies: rent control, and blocking development of
high-density residential areas. Both measurements will limit supplies (while
benefiting incumbents), so naturally people would move away.

------
Grimm1
Yeah, I'm an at risk group for this thing and I'm not commuting into an office
for the foreseeable future, my office has been good so far but if they don't
make an arrangement with me to continue this when our half baked state
reopenings happen then I'll find a place that will.

------
saagarjha
One interesting side effect is that local schools are already seeing declining
enrollment as families can't afford to live here. I have hear rumors that my
local school district, CUSD, may have to close a school and reduce staff
because they don't have enough students.

------
cactus2093
I'm certainly daydreaming about this, as someone living in SF right now. But
IMO things are still too uncertain to pull the trigger on making a huge move.
And I wonder if the likeliest scenario, is that everyone strongly considers
doing this, but then we all slowly get used to the "new normal" and by the
time it's clear one way or the other what the future is starting to look like,
we're past the peak of the virus (maybe it's early 2021 and there's a vaccine
starting to roll out) and everyone just kind of settles back into mostly the
same life they previously had due to inertia.

And anecdotally I've heard very few people say they now want to stay fully
remote forever. What I've heard instead is people talking about how they hope
that 2-3 days a week in the office might become the new normal. That might
open up your options a bit, maybe that makes you willing to commute 1 - 1.5hrs
instead of 30 min - 1 hr. But that wouldn't allow anyone to leave the metro
area. In fact, maybe this scenario actually _increases_ cost of living because
now you need to both be close enough to downtown to commute a few days a week,
and have enough space for a dedicated home office so you can work from home
productively the other few days a week.

~~~
ghaff
The Bay Area arguably doesn't lend itself as well to a part-time WFH situation
as other cities do. Given that it's not just the core city that's expensive
but the whole peninsula where most of the jobs are located and even most of
the surrounding areas. You _can_ get out of it with a long enough occasional
commute--though then you're probably also too far out to regularly take
advantage of urban culture, etc.

By contrast, somewhere like Boston assuming the jobs are even in the city
(many aren't), a drive that's 60-90 minutes depending on time of day puts you
into pretty reasonably priced exurbs.

------
kelvin0
Well for those who stay, the rent prices might plummet if there's enough of an
exodus.

------
phendrenad2
A lot of people came here to comment "you won't make the same salary". Yeah no
kidding, but the ratio of salary/COL will be a LOT higher regardless. Don't
believe me? Check the chart in the article.

------
alexose
I welcome anyone trying to leave SV to come live in beautiful Southern Oregon.
Great weather, not too crowded, and still drivable to Seattle and the bay.
Come help build our little tech scene!

------
option
If a company want to hire remote workers, why do that in US or Europe?

~~~
thehappypm
My company hires a lot of Croatian software engineers. Most of them speak
great English. 1/3 are very, very good, 1/3 OK, 1/3 literally terrible. But we
rotate the bad ones out and keep the good ones, and the rumor is they cost
about 1/3 or 1/2 of an American worker. I honestly feel that the American
software engineer may be in trouble if remote really does take off -- 2 solid
Croatian guys for the price of 1 tech bro is a very good deal.

~~~
asdff
I expect to see a lot of companies doing this. You read the same exact docs
whether you live in SF or Bulgaria. If anything you have better math skills
outside the U.S. which helps you more than a language barrier would matter.

Some might argue the best engineering is here, maybe that's correct maybe not,
but companies rarely want the best. They just want the cheapest possible tool
for the job they think they have. If a remote dev is significantly cheaper
than a U.S. based remote dev, no business will be paying that premium.

~~~
thehappypm
It's worth mentioning that none of our tech leads are outsourced. All of the
very demanding architecture work and decision making happens here. A lot of
that yields a spec that needs a hundred hours of dev time -- for example,
"update the iOS and Android apps to match the redesign we did on Mobile Web".
You don't need a US based engineer for that type of work, but you sure as hell
want the best possible guy designing the architecture and doing code review.

------
mobilio
Link to article: [http://archive.md/dhoUk](http://archive.md/dhoUk)

------
dfgtrhrer
And I'm considering to become a billionaire this year. So what?

------
kbrwn
This is constantly brought up on HN in the WFH threads.

Your employer cannot arbitrarily reduce your salary. The reduction has to be
agreed upon by the employee or the employer has to terminate employment and
rehire to reduce salary.

Very few big tech companies will update salary for a intra country move. It
seems to happen most often when an employee relocates to a new country rather
than a new state. This is because the new country requires a different work
agreement and must follow different labor laws.

~~~
nkohari
> Your employer cannot arbitrarily reduce your salary. The reduction has to be
> agreed upon by the employee or the employer has to terminate employment and
> rehire to reduce salary.

There might be state regulations to this effect -- and IANAL -- but there's no
such federal law in the US. An employer can cut an employee's pay at any point
to any value above the minimum wage, as long as they inform the employee their
pay has been cut.

