

Secretive X-37B Military Space Plane Could Land in California Tuesday - jabo
http://news.yahoo.com/secretive-x-37b-military-space-plane-could-land-132030466.html

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Certified
TL;DR : I think the X-37 is nothing more spectacular than an upgradable spy
satellite that can change it's orbit of inclination giving it the ability to
spy on any part of the globe as quickly as possible.

Although the X-37B's mission is a closely guarded secret, many facts are
public knowledge. I compiled a quick timeline a while back and seeing as it is
in the news again, I am reviving it.

1998 : During the Clinton administration, Boeing test drops the X-40A, a test
vehicle that would later be developed into the X-37. The government's own
National museum of the US Air Force [freely
states]([http://www.nationalmuseum.af.mil/factsheets/factsheet.asp?id...](http://www.nationalmuseum.af.mil/factsheets/factsheet.asp?id=13873))
"The SMV program aimed at developing a new generation of small and reusable,
highly maneuverable space vehicles for deploying satellites, surveillance, and
logistics missions."

1999 : Public acknowledged start date of the X-37 project. Obvious
similarities between the X-40A, launched a year earlier, and the X-37 show
that work had already been started on the project, in one form or another.

2004 : The Bush administration decides to shake up nasa and outlines it's
[Vision for Space
Exploration]([http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/55583main_vision_space_exploration2....](http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/55583main_vision_space_exploration2.pdf)).
In it, they outline the future of spaceflight laying out the, later cancelled,
renewed efforts to send manned missions to the moon and later mars. In it they
talk about a new generation of launch vehicles. This document is the beginning
of the end for the already aging shuttle program. In it, they spell out that
the shuttle program's only continuing purpose would be to finish the
international space station.

2004 : Also in President George's plan is the further classification of the
X-37/X-40 projects as they are [moved from NASA to
Darpa]([http://www.space.com/337-nasa-transfers-37-project-
darpa.htm...](http://www.space.com/337-nasa-transfers-37-project-darpa.html))
where a tighter lid can be kept on the whole project.

2006 : First Drop test of the X-37

2009 : Barack Obama is elected POTUS

22Apr2010 : First launch of the first X-37, Mission USA-212, and lasted 225
days

5Mar2011 : A different X-37 is launched and lasted 469 days

11Dec2012 : Another X-37 is launched and is still in orbit at the time of
writing this. It is possibly that it is the same ship as was used in the first
launch. As of today it has been in orbit, 657 days. USA-240 Mission

8Oct2014 : [NASA Partners with X-37B Program for Use of Former Space Shuttle
Hangars]([http://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/october/nasa-partners-
with-x-...](http://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/october/nasa-partners-
with-x-37b-program-for-use-of-former-space-shuttle-hangars/#.VDaql6XF9K8))

13Oct2014 : [The X-37B is reportedly going to land in California
Tommorrow]([http://news.yahoo.com/secretive-x-37b-military-space-
plane-c...](http://news.yahoo.com/secretive-x-37b-military-space-plane-could-
land-132030466.html))

My personal conclusions on all this lead me to believe the following however I
highly recommend anyone with interest in the subject research it and make your
own conclusions as I might have missed something: Due to the long amount of
time they have kept each X-37 in orbit and the apparent desire to keep one in
orbit at any given time, I personally believe that the mission is ongoing and
of perceived strategic importance to the united states. Given that the US
government itself has described the X-37's predecessor as a "highly
maneuverable space vehicle for deploying satellites, surveillance, and
logistics missions" I believe this is exactly what it is doing. It is an
orbital space plane with a next generation optics and surveillance package
that has the added ability of being able to change it's orbital inclination in
the event that a certain spot on the earth needs observation urgently.
Changing your orbital inclination costs a lot of fuel so you still want to be
able to deorbit to be able to refuel and have another ready to take it's place
when you do this. This also gives your engineers at Boeing time to make
improvements and upgrades on one bird while the other is flying keeping your
optics and sensors at the cutting edge all the time.

~~~
Certified
Sorry for the Poor Formatting. I tried editing my post and Hacker News wont
take my changes. I suspect it is because I made a new account for this post.

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nnx
[http://www.dtic.mil/get-tr-doc/pdf?AD=ADA407255](http://www.dtic.mil/get-tr-
doc/pdf?AD=ADA407255)

This report explains the background, scope and goals of the X-37 project.

The title of the second part of the report sounds interesting: "Is Space the
next Pearl Harbor?"

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jonah
Is there any information or speculation on what kinds of package(s) it
carries?

With the payload bay the size of a pickup bed, it doesn't seem like it could
carry much.

~~~
contingencies
It's military. Other than surveillance devices, it likely contains weapons to
destroy, disable, or physically acquire portions of other satellites or
acquire/modify/inhibit their communications. Think deniable jamming, component
frying, physical acquisition of embedded encryption electronics.

~~~
codezero
I'm curious as to what anyone is speculating regarding the mission durations.
It seems that a small reusable craft shouldn't necessarily have a requirement
that it stay in orbit for one or two years.

Since the three tests that were done all had long durations, I really wonder
what the mission profile for this thing is.

Some sort of readiness is needed, that is, it needs to wait in orbit, rather
than relying on a launch schedule.

Launch -> deploy a payload -> wait -> capture a payload (either the one
already deployed or some other one) -> return to Earth

The longest shuttle mission was 17 days, and they deployed and recaptured two
satellites in that time.

It's possible these are used as a platform for servicing existing Air
Force/government assets in space.

If you look at Hubble as an example, it required servicing every 2-4 years.
Space instruments suffer pretty steady degradation, and various transient
events can cause that to degradation to accelerate.

If you spend a few billion to launch an instrument, and you need to replace it
entirely every few years, you're spending a lot of money on replacements, but
it may only be small parts that need to be replaced or repaired. Having a
"pick up truck" of modular, drop-in components waiting in orbit could greatly
extend the life of surveillance equipment and reduce the amount of downtime
(either out of commission, or operating with reduced coverage).

~~~
pokstad
[http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbital_Express](http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbital_Express)

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wwarren
So is this just a rapidly deployable surveillance platform? What's the
advantage over existing spy satellites?

~~~
akbar501
> What's the advantage over existing spy satellites?

The first nukes in a large scale war will be detonated in space to eliminate
communication, spy, and other satellites. If an opposing force has a
successful 1st strike then a rapidly deployable surveillance platform to re-
establish our capabilities would be highly valuable.

~~~
Sven7
Large scale war? Give me a break. The white flags will go up as soon as people
loose access to their facebook streams or hackernews for that matter.

~~~
akbar501
I never said that it would be a popular war...just large scale. Just because
something is not popular with the majority of a population (loss of FB) does
not mean it cannot/will not happen. Even in a democracy.

I must ask.

> Large scale war? Give me a break.

Are you suggesting that large scale war cannot ever happen in the future. That
it's completely outside the realm of possibility? Is it an impossibility?

~~~
Sven7
"Large scale wars" happen when both sides are equally balanced in resources.
When was the last time that happened?

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o0-0o
If it's secretive, why would any of this be out in the press?

~~~
syncsynchalt
In general, because you can't hide anything in LEO. X-37B's orbit (and orbital
changes) are well known.

That doesn't explain why we know it's coming down, but I'm guessing that
leaked or wasn't considered sensitive.

