
The number one predictor of software bugs is organizational complexity: study - ingve
https://augustl.com/blog/2019/microsoft_predicts_software_bugs/
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tosh
> The distance to decision makers and the number of developers working on a
> project is clearly and unambiguously the issue that is the best predictor of
> future problems with a code base.

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franciscop
Could a mod please update the title to make it less click-bait?

"According to Microsoft, the number one predictor of software bugs is" sounds
like all those side/bottom extra articles.

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dang
I took a crack at it, but the article has been flagged at this point so it's a
bit moot.

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drewcoo
Take Conway's Law into account and it's maybe not so surprising.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conway's_law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conway's_law)

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yodon
The original paper on which this blog post is based is actually an explicit
experimental test of Conway's law (and it's also a paper which happens to have
found significant validity for Conway's law in the data they analyzed).

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valerij
> Another shocking discovery for me personally, is that the only one that I've
> actually used myself - code coverage - has the lowest recall. In other
> words, almost all the issues it predicted turned out to not be real issues.

sounds like survivorship bias to me

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drewcoo
I'd be willing to bet that it was sloppy coverage and those false positives
were along component/team boundaries.

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ngneer
The original tech report is from 2008. Anything newer?

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cilefen
Here is Google’s take on bug prediction from a while back: [https://google-
engtools.blogspot.com/2011/12/bug-prediction-...](https://google-
engtools.blogspot.com/2011/12/bug-prediction-at-google.html?m=1)

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rambojazz
clickbait level: buzzfeed

