
I assume I'm below average - mahipal
http://sivers.org/below-average
======
HSO
It's a nice attitude to have in a perfect world but what about this one? In
many contexts, especially where there is high noise to signal, people will
tend to believe/bet on/buy/hire/have sex with the guy who seems so (possibly
over-) confident and makes lots of (possibly empty) promises over the guy who
is humble and annoyingly realistic. I can't remember which firm but the leader
of a cosmetics firm once said "we don't sell lipstick. we sell hope." I think
that's true for lots of social interactions. So this attitude is better to
have as a hat one can take on or off, depending on the situation. If you're
alone or dealing with knowledgable people, yes, wear your humble hat. If
you're selling something or yourself, wear the other one. Just to be clear, I
don't like it how it is. But at the moment, being intentionally misleading
sometimes, even to the point of eating your own BS, is a valid strategy for
worldly success if that is what you seek.

EDIT: Just to be clear, what I mean by "intentionally misleading" is more like
hyperbole than like lying. Steve Jobs claiming the "best phone in the world"
is hyperbole. Bernie Madoff claiming the "smoothest returns in the world" is
lying.

~~~
MicahWedemeyer
This is actually a very good point. Know when to be bold and confident, and
know when to keep your mouth shut.

I've actually found a good heuristic to know when to do which. If I'm
uncomfortable and insecure, it's time to be bold. And if I'm sure I'm right
and the other guy's wrong, it's probably time to shut up and listen. It
basically comes down to doing the opposite of my emotional response.

It's not easy, but when I follow that guideline, things tend to work out
better.

~~~
YonghoShin
When others are fearful, be greedy. When others are greedy, be fearful. -
Warren Buffett

------
gkoberger
My take on this is slightly different. I think people have different opinions
on what above average means.

Take the driving example. I may say I'm an above average driver, since I have
good reflexes and can drive at high speeds. However, someone else might say
they're a good driver because they follow the speed limit.

I think the reason everyone thinks they're above average is because they are-
they're just above average in different ways.

~~~
wheaties
That's an interesting thought. To say that 96% of people rate themselves a
better driver because they customize their criteria to reflect what they value
is quite insightful.

~~~
eru
Humans think they are on the apex of the shrub of live, because they have big
brains.

I guess fish would define sophistication as a nice swim bladder.

------
coryl
Reminds me about my experiences in martial arts; notably Brazilian Jiu Jitsu.
You will go in every day to train and spar and get your ass kicked by someone
smaller, bigger, weaker, stronger, newer, more experienced, etc. It gets
pretty rough on the ego, and if you're not smart enough to figure out that all
the ass kicking's don't really matter, then you'll be one of the guys who
drops out. But if you keep coming every day, commit to training despite losing
constantly, you'll be absorbing more and more information and progressing
faster than people who train strictly to "win" or stroke their egos.

This happens with everyone, nobody ever gets to the top by being the best from
the beginning. Thats why the best fighters in the world are very humble;
they've paid their dues and got their asses kicked every day to get to the
top.

There's something to learn from everyone, and learning never stops. The day
you think you're better than everyone else, or are "good enough", is the day
your results start declining.

------
mahipal
This article reminded me of this old gem from PG's "Great Hackers":

"I've found that people who are great at something are not so much convinced
of their own greatness as mystified at why everyone else seems so
incompetent."

~~~
chasingsparks
Tangentially related is one of my favorite Bertrand Russell quotes: _The
trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are
full of doubt._

~~~
micrypt
Also in the same vein: " _The best lack all conviction, while the worst, Are
full of passionate intensity._ " - William Butler Yeats

------
rmc
It's quite possible for more than 50% of people to be above average drivers.
If there are 100 people, and 80 of them cause no accidents, and the other 20
cause 10 accidents each, then there are 2 accidents per driver. 80% have less
than average accident rate. By the same logic it's possible for most people to
have a below average salary. Once extremes are possible, then averages start
being less applicable.

However for things that have no extrmeme (e.g. height, IQs), the above average
and below average rates are similar.,

~~~
thaumaturgy
Yes, you're exactly right. The quote that drives this home for me is, "Most
people have an above average number of legs."

------
wheels
I doubt Derek really believes this. At least for me it would be paralyzing to
think that I was below average at _everything_.

I assume what he really means is, "below average in _x_ , but I make up for
that with _y_."

I think it'd be hard to have done as well as Derek if you honestly managed to
convince yourself that you were below average intelligence, below average
skill in your profession, below average ability to motivate yourself and so
on. It sounds like he's setting the _y_ to "in being humble and willing to
learn from others".

Otherwise why would you try anything hard if you believed it to just be a
lottery with bad odds? Wouldn't it be better to leave it as an open question
so that you're self critical and are able to suss out your own weaknesses?

~~~
sivers
See the top of <http://sivers.org/book/ArtOfLearning>

The fixed theory of intelligence versus the growth/incremental.

You're right: no use to be an Eeyore and assume you're doomed.

But if you're dedicated to learning, then assuming you're currently below
average keeps you learning harder than if you assume you're most of the way
there.

~~~
wheels
The approach I find myself taking is to keep moving the goal posts by putting
myself in groups where I genuinely am below average, or at a minimum where
there are prominent examples around me of people much better than me at the
thing I'm trying to do.

There's also something about approaching one's limits that helps distill
genuine personal weaknesses and learn to either live with or work around them.

~~~
zackattack
Excellent comment. I also try to put myself in groups where I genuinely am
below average, and I think it accelerates my learning curve. But it's also
good to be Top Dog from time to time; the teacher often can learn more than
the student.

~~~
lsc
> But it's also good to be Top Dog from time to time; the teacher often can
> learn more than the student.

Even in those cases, I think there is an advantage to choosing people who have
the potential to become better than you are. It's really gratifying to teach
someone something, and then watch them grow to the point where they know more
than you do on the subject.

------
caryme
My high school psychology teacher taught us about illusory superiority by
another name (which is discussed on the Wikipedia page): the Lake Woebegone
Effect.

This refers, of course, to Garrison Keillor's _Lake Wobegone_ , where "all the
women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above
average."

Although that was years ago, I think about the effect often. Part of the
reason it had such a profound effect on me, I think, is because the name is
just so awesome.

------
evandijk70
Especially for driving, I think most people are above average. This is because
the distribution of driving ability is negatively skewed, meaning the tail on
the left is longer than the tail on the right.

If you were to put a number on driving ability, most people would get
something like a seven (out of a maximum of 10).

In my opinion, there would be a very small amount of two's and fives. There
would also be a small percentage that would get a one out of a maximum of a
ten. (The drivers that don't follow the speed limit, make dangerous overtaking
maneuvers, and are agressive towards other drivers).

I think those drivers make most people claim they have an "above average"
driving ability.

~~~
kgermino
I think you're right which is funny because many people (way more than half as
this article noted) would say they are above average _and_ say that only half
of drivers can be above average

Only 50% of students can be above average (median) but 80% may have above
average grades (mode)

People tend to confuse the two concepts

~~~
stoney
I think you meant mean not mode...

~~~
joubert
I think he meant mode, no? Mean, mode, median:
<http://www.purplemath.com/modules/meanmode.htm>

------
JangoSteve
_I've stopped thinking others are stupid. I assume most people are smarter
than me._

This reminds me of one of my favorite quotes:

    
    
      "Every man I meet is in some way my superior, and in that, I can learn from him."
      -Ralph Waldo Emerson
    

I used to find myself thinking others were less knowledgeable or less advanced
than me in a lot of subject areas. Now I always remind myself that if such a
great person could always find something in others better than himself, then
there's absolutely no excuse for me.

~~~
dlnovell
It also reminded me of my favorite quote:

"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are
stupider than that." -George Carlin

------
charlesju
I actually take the exact opposite approach on life. One of my favorite
entrepreneurial rhetorical questions is: "What would you do if you knew you
could not fail?". Confidence in your own abilities forces you to try and break
boundaries that you would otherwise fail to even start if you felt inadequate.
I am proud to have a massive ego and I work daily on breaking down my fears
and insecurities. The NUMBER ONE reason why entrepreneurs fail is because they
give up. No one gives up if they think they're above average, exceptional,
doing better than other startups. People GIVE UP because of fear,
insecurities, feeling they are below average.

Just look at all the hot shot entrepreneurs that we all admire, they're all
grade-A d-bags (Steve Jobs, Mark Cuban, Larry Ellison, Donald Trump, etc.) and
that's because they believed they were larger than life, they acted upon that
belief, and they actualized it.

------
metamemetics
How does this have 275 upvotes????

Was it a secret that humans like positive thinking?

Why even compare yourself to a nonexistent fictitious "average" in the first
place? Considering yourself greater OR less than average is a complete waste
of brain resources all together. Individuals selected at random will, on
average, be incredibly different from a theoretical individual of all
"average" qualities due to the incalculable number of possible quality-types a
person could possess.

The average person is a myth.

------
Raphael_Amiard
I think the real lesson from this is not assuming you are really below
average, but be aware of the people around you, of their ideas and ways of
thinking, and not dismiss them just because you think you're better than them,
even if at first those ideas seems stupid.

It is a really common problem with programming in my opinion. Nearly all the
brilliant programmers i've met have a self esteem problem. They think they're
really smarter than everybody else and that this makes it ok to dismiss most
of other people's ideas, completely missing the fact that they would become a
lot smarter if they paid closer attention. Now i guess this isn't a
generality, and very relative to my own experience, but, i guess the very fact
of doing somethings that almost nobody understands will make that bias grow
over time, if you don't pay attention.

------
billswift
I don't really pay much attention to the average, or to what other people
"know". I mostly compare what I know to what I don't know, or more accurately
- What I can do to what I can't but want to do. That is a sure way to keep
yourself fairly humble - no matter how smart I am, there is never time to
learn to do all the things I want to do.

------
dmillar
I think this way, too. I assume I'm a bad programmer, businessman,
communicator, etc. It has always served me well. It keeps me asking questions
and always striving to improve. Even in the unlikely event that I ever knew
what I was talking about, what would it have mattered? It's rule of the Price
is Right: you automatically disqualify yourself by going over.

------
elbrodeur
Wasn't there just a thread about the Dunning-Kruger effect recently?

Anyhow, yes; the more you know the more you know that you know little. The
more experienced you are the more you know that you lack experience.

But that doesn't mean that you're not knowledgeable or experienced. This kind
of worldview is a good basis for approaching anything, but it's not a good way
to make decisions.

------
afhof
Highly Relevant:
[https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Dunning%E2%80...](https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect)

~~~
elptacek
I am quite happy with my illusory inferiority. Deal with discontent by trying
to outrun it, and you'll never run out of things to do.

------
Alex3917
On the other hand, lack of optimism considered a sign of poor mental health,
seemingly regardless of the truth.

[http://www.mentalhelp.net/poc/view_doc.php?type=doc&id=5...](http://www.mentalhelp.net/poc/view_doc.php?type=doc&id=5789&cn=298)

~~~
codexon
Maybe they are optimistic because they know they are healthier.

------
ruang
The problem is how he defines 'smart'.

If you assume smart means you know more than an average person, it means you
know a superset of the data/facts they know, and thus you gain nothing by
asking them something.

However, if you assume smart means something different, like the ability to
learn quickly for example, then it follows that an average person can know
something useful that you don't already know, and thus you have something to
gain by asking them something.

------
rmundo
It pays to be able to flexibly switch my mindset in a way that is beneficial
to myself. On the one hand, I want to always feel there is room for
improvement. On the other, I don't want always be feeling inadequate compared
to other members of my comparison group. It's easy to keep measuring yourself
against an ever tighter, ever more elite group of people. The pressure is not
always worth it.

~~~
lemming
This is a great point - this is a really easy trap to fall into reading about
programming on the internet, for example.

------
r3570r3
"Most people are so worried about looking good that they never do anything
great.

Most people are so worried about doing something great that they never do
anything at all."

That was wow! Though, thinking you are below average outs constraints in some
people making them believe that certain bigger things are "not for me". That
can be devastating.

------
igravious
Always assuming you're above average is, of course, egotistical. You don't
need to have a Phd in introspection to become mindful of this. Being
egotistical is in most cultures regarded as a vice. It is easy to love
oneself. Also you are being ungenerous with regards to the abilities of others
around you.

Always assuming that you fall short of the median appears to be a conscious
exercise in humility. Being humble is usually regarded as a virtue. Being
humble is not so easy, cuz if it were the world would be a hell of a different
place. The problem with this approach is that you are being ungenerous towards
yourself and your own hard-won abilities.

But you know, there is a difference between assuming you are one thing or
another and how you project yourself to the world. I would imagine that what
is most difficult is accurately and generously assessing your own ability (in
different situations) and also fairly and generously assessing the abilities
of others. What is important then is that if you find that you are "better"
than someone at whatever that you are humble about it and that if you are
"worse" that you are not envious about it.

In short Derek I believe that you have swung from one extreme to another and
shot past the more difficult happy mean.

I also believe that there are any number of false dichotomies at play here. I
can assume (better yet, know) that I am above the average at something and
still not act like others around me are dumb. Same with asking questions.
Obviously if I think that I'm hot stuff it may appear that an instant
consequence of this is that I'll stop asking questions and stop listening but
it's very likely that these traits are needed to push you above the average in
the first place and it would be _dumb_ to abandon them when you're out in
front.

Those statistics appear to lack citations and are meaningless out of context
as well, but that's another thing.

I'm sorry but I'm not impressed at all and I feel that these posts of Mr
Siver's are framed in a superficial home-spun zen truths kind of way so as to
drive traffic towards Mr Siver's site and the fact that he links to his book
one of his comments below in this thread only serves to strengthen my belief
in this respect. I would welcome any comments if anyone else has felt the same
way or am I being in my own way ungenerous of Mr. Siver's motives. I don't
know the guy and have no axe to grind and maybe I'm being too cynical but if
someone wants to preach to such a wide audience I expect the bar to be set a
little higher, that's all.

------
macrael
It is really interesting to read the responses to this piece. I was surprised
to find many people saying that if they followed Derek's advice it would harm
their self-esteem. Assuming that others possess more skill than you does not
diminish the value of your own skill. I don't think it is a zero sum game. I
think the biggest realization for me recently is just that one should not
underestimate people. It is easy to think that others (especially faceless
others) aren't as good at something as you are. To quote the late great George
Carlin "Have you ever noticed that anybody driving slower than you is an
idiot, and anyone going faster than you is a maniac?" It is depressingly easy
to judge, and usually we judge negatively, and usually we judge wrong.

------
mkramlich
from the OA:

"To me, this was like finding out I'm a cylon, or this is the Matrix. Hard to
accept facts."

That's because 95% of cylons don't think they are cylons.

------
baddox
While many of these are probably valid points, some such as the "better than
average driver" one just doesn't seem valid personally. Unless you can
demonstrate that I'm _not_ average or better at driving, then just because
everyone _else_ also claims to be better than average doesn't mean that I'm
incorrect. I've never had a speeding ticket or been in an automobile accident,
and I've only been pulled over once (for a missing tail light in a truck I had
purchased just hours earlier). Please try to convince me I'm average or
worse—I think you'll fail.

------
lhnz
Why would you assume that you're "below average", "average", or "above
average" without any evidence? There's no sense in judging yourself with a
shot in the dark especially if you're hoping to improve.

------
robryan
I like to think of myself as above average in my areas on strong interest.
That being said though I love to meet people that are better than me, allows
me to learn a lot.

I hate working with people and knowing that there is much point asking them a
question because they will go through the same basic stuff I have already
tried. Much prefer to be surrounded by really smart people and feel like a
beginner than be the smartest person in the room and get some things done much
more slowly.

------
noonespecial
...until other people I trust to be objective tell me otherwise.

~~~
cschep
These people are very, very valuable. Hang on to them.

------
tmugavero
Inspiring stuff, but I don't think you have to necessarily assume you are
below average. You can assume you're great and create this state of mind
naturally if you strive to surround yourself with exceptional people. It
naturally creates a condition of student / teacher when the people around you
are experts. I guess it's just another way of looking at finding motivation to
learn. Great reminder regardless.

------
Goladus
I think it's better to learn how to make a realistic empirical estimation of
whether you're "above or below average" whatever that means in context, and
recognize when it doesn't matter at all-- like with driving skill-- than it is
to just assume you're below average. You can assume you're a bad driver or
assume you're a good driver and it won't likely make any difference at all in
your life.

------
alfredp
I think that is better to know exactly where you are at, rather than to assume
one way or another. That way, when it comes time to use your skill (or lack
thereof), you know exactly how far you can go.

The assuming that you're below average thing - it is just a reminder to be
humble and to constantly work on your basics - having a beginner's mind.

------
Tekhne
If you read the book "Learned Optimism," you'll see that the research shows
this to be a bad strategy. All things being equal, you're more likely to
succeed if you have an optimistic or best case view of things, unless the
consequences of being wrong are dire. Pessimistic views tend to be more
accurate, but also less successful.

------
hristov
This is a great mindset to have. For his next achievement, Mr. Sivers should
try to combine sentences in paragraphs.

~~~
sivers
Hey daddy-o, get with the times. Sentence is the new paragraph. :-)

------
haze
I believe its about attitude. One need consider him/herself to be below
average to be attentive to what others say and not consider others stupid.
Considering myself below average has not really worked for me, this has
actually hit my confidence and made me apprehensive about sharing my views

------
DavidSJ
Suppose there are three people, each of whom hold an opinion on some topic
which contradicts the other two. So two out of three think they are right, yet
at most one out of three actually is.

This is expected, when people disagree about the world. There is no need to
bring psychological biases into it.

------
ellyagg
It's best not to worry about whether you're average or above average or below
average. Instead, winners focus on setting personal goals and incrementally
improving their performance against objective standards. Let others do the
comparisons.

------
jamesseda
It is matter of opinion. Someone who always drives the speed limit may believe
they are better than all the people driving over the speed limit. And someone
who drives over the limit my scoff at the parking ability of the slow driver.

------
cgoddard
Sources? It's nice to just throw out percentages but where is the data to back
this up?

------
MarkBook
If current trends continue soon everyone will be above average. Go education
system!

------
shughes
If you're overly confident, assume you're just average. If you lack
confidence, assume you're better than everyone else.

I think it's a matter of knowing where you stand in the range of low to high
confidence, and then trying to balance it out.

~~~
JangoSteve
Lacking confidence _and_ thinking you're better than everyone else can lead to
very bad things.

~~~
shughes
More confidence? I guess it not so simple since you're interpreting it in a
different way than I am.

~~~
JangoSteve
Confidence does not mean thinking you're better than everyone else. It means
realizing it doesn't matter.

~~~
shughes
That is not always the case. When I have to present programming technical
designs to a room of clients and upper management, I know that it matters. I
completely know that it matters. But I research to the point I'm convinced I
know more than everyone in the room. Therefore, I go into the meeting
confident. And it's nothing to do with, "realizing it doesn't matter."

Convincing yourself it doesn't matter and then having confidence, is much more
difficult to do than knowing and understanding each scenario and then having
confidence. And that accounts for almost all scenarios. A social situation,
presenting in front of clients, dating a girl.

Take them as extremes, using a speech as an example. Let's say all you think
about is realizing it doesn't matter. Then you stand up to present and you are
convinced it doesn't matter, but you start to realize you forgot to think
about the speech. So you don't know what to talk about. Your heart starts
racing, and your voice starts cracking, and all you can think about is your
nerves.

Now let's say all you think about is the content of the speech. You stand up
to give your speech, and realize you know everything there is to know about
the topic. So your mind becomes engaged in the topic, and you forget any
nerves that you may have had.

~~~
JangoSteve
I think you're misunderstanding me. If you replace "thinking you're better
than everyone" with "being more knowledgable on a subject than everyone else,"
then I agree with your comments.

------
paulnelligan
There's a great David Bowie song about this:

'Don't believe in yourself, Don't deceive with Belief. Knowledge comes with
Death's release'

I think he was trying to say: Don't assume anything, just be!

I really enjoyed reading this submission, thanks!

~~~
jacquesm
That's from the hunky dory album, a song called 'quicksand'.

~~~
paulnelligan
I do know that ...

------
gcr
Average is seldom the right measuring stick. For example, I, having two legs,
actually have more than the average number of legs. (I've seen a few humans
with only one leg, but never three.)

------
jseliger
So you're assume that you're above average in the category of assumptions
about one's averages.

One the one hand, I don't want to call someone falsely modest, but on the
other, that tag fits awfully well.

------
mburney
Thinking that you're smarter than average can also hurt your social life in
more ways than imaginable.

------
Tichy
Is it even possible to assume that, or is it ultimately a subconscious thing?

------
aymeric
This guy always comes up with insightful yet humble posts.

------
Natural2190
Seriously, though, I'm above average.

------
georgieporgie
It seems to me that the benefit that the author describes comes from listening
and seeking to learn, rather than by viewing oneself as inferior. I have a
particularly hard time believing that you can sustain a successful career if
you're not able to sell yourself, something you can't do effectively with a
negative self image.

------
galois
I would often assume people I met were smarter than I was. I was proven wrong
time and time again.

~~~
lincolnq
Is it better to be right more often, or to assume the best of anyone you meet?

------
jw84
The smarter you are the higher up you go in perspective the more you realize
how much more information and work you need. But I wager this is not always a
good or healthy frame.

Some days I feel unhappy because I beat myself up for failing my own
standards. Some people live in the moment and they're happy, some people
aren't. In the end it's finding a balance in life.

------
confuzatron
Like Derek Sivers, I can only be sure of being more humble than average.

------
lmaonade
could we go one day on this site without a blog that contains the epiphany
that being less egotistical results in better social skills?

not to mention the condescending, lecturing tone in the post makes me want to
vomit

~~~
mkramlich
I'm going to submit a blog piece about how the less vomiting you do, the
better social skills you'll have.

