
Top 10 Lessons from the Dot Com Meltdown - nonrecursive
http://www.businessplanarchive.org/whatwecanlearn/tenlessons.html
======
bootload
good reading right up to the last point ...

 _'... we need better predictive tools to plot the speed at which new
technologies will spread. Spreadsheet gymnastics by 20-something b-school
graduates should not dictate our investment decisions. We can produce better
predictions. We have the data - from decades of technology innovation. We have
the ability to analyze the data - after all, Everett Rogers wrote "Diffusion
of Innovations" 40 years ago ...'_ [0]

Baloney.

When will these analysts get it into their heads you cannot predict with
certainty by looking into the past figures. If this was the case there would
be a lot more people making a killing on the markets, insurance companies
would be rolling in dollars because they could reliably predict disasters et.,
al.

As for the solution or alternative I just don't know. Maybe closely observing
select influences in a Gladwellian sort of way [1]. Maybe something the way
O`Reilly keeps an eye on the Alpha Geeks to guide what trends are worth
investigating. [2]

Reference

[0] business plan archive, 'Top Ten Lessons from the Dot Com Meltdown, 10)
Prediction tools must improve', Ibid.

[1] Malcom Gladwell describes one such way you can make rapid decisions by
gathering less information on a subject and focusing on a few key indicators.
~ <http://www.gladwell.com/blink>

[2] Tim O`Reilly may well have read Gladwells book because seems to (publicly
anyway) pay close attention to "the alpha geeks" in the hope of understanding
gaps, opportunities and future directions in the tech market. ~
<http://www.itconversations.com/shows/detail197.html>

------
shsung
Free is folly? Google's gmail seems to be working out fine. And in fact,
YouTube seems to be working out fine (or at least Google thought so enough to
buy it), too. Free is only bad if you didn't think your plan through, I think.

