
A $442B Money Manager Says Tech's Glory Days Are Over - HillaryBriss
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-05/a-442-billion-money-manager-says-tech-s-glory-days-are-over
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thtthings
What is the difference between her and an astrologer? If she is so sure, they
should return all their clients money(invested in tech) or put them in
defensive stocks. I kinda envy her for making a lot of money and being on TV
for i don't know what! no one can predict what's going to happen. Golden state
winning yesterday was a sure thing. But then didn't! and now i finally realize
that i or nobody has any idea what's going to happen.

Looking at the past we can say with certainty(if we assume it will repeat)
that stocks will crash someday. When that happens some money that can be
risked should be used to buy a well diversified ETF. Till then if you can't
hold on to cash then keeping buying every month.

~~~
0xDEFC0DE
>What is the difference between her and an astrologer?

To be fair, they don't let random astrologians on the curb manage $442
billion.

That said, this is likely just PR for her personal/firm's position against
tech and likely bullshit. If a recession happens tomorrow, tech would be
affected and she'll win even though the underlying cause probably wasn't tech.
I think the DOJ investigations will make tech more interesting at least, so I
really doubt the "glory days are over" when more glory opportunity comes along
(whatever the fuck glory means in tech).

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jimbob45
"Within sectors, Shah recommends utilities or real estate. Since the start of
May, the two classic bond proxies are the only S&P 500 sectors in the green.
Globally, she prefers U.S. stocks over emerging markets."

I keep reading on here that no real estate safeguards were put in place after
the 2008 crash. Why would anyone feel safe investing heavily in real estate
knowing that?

~~~
toomuchtodo
So late in the debt cycle, I’d avoid RE like the plague (although it appears
interest rate increases are off the table for the foreseeable future). And
utilities? With renewables being deployed and still coming down in cost? No no
no.

~~~
jsight
Why is progress in renewables a bad thing for utilities? Just in the past 10
years or so, coal prices have increased by ~50% while natural gas prices have
dropped at an even greater rate. Churn in the prices of underlying energy
generation technologies seems both inevitable and 100% normal for the
industry. I don't see any reason why this can't be profitable just because the
churn might be renewable during the next cycle.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Stranded assets, distributed solar, that sort of thing. Investor utilities are
no longer the gatekeepers they once were to electrons. You can put solar on
your roof, and depending where you are, payback period is low single digit
years.

~~~
jsight
I'm a fan of rooftop solar for quite a few reasons. One of those is that it is
effectively the only competitive choice that a consumer has for cases where
the utility charges excessive rates.

But lets not kid ourselves here. Utility rates in much of the country hover
around ~.12/KWh (less in many places, much more in some places). The levelized
cost of solar, inclusive of its initial outlay is often very close to this in
the best of circumstances.

For example, with a well placed (facing south) 5KW system in the southeast, I
can expect to produce ~7000 Kwh per year. At an initial system cost of $7000
(assuming a tax incentive of 50% and unincentivized cost of $3/KW), that
system will pay for itself in about 8 years.

If your rates are exhorbitant or your incentives are much higher then this all
changes. But higher rates also mean that the utility has a lot of room to
lower rates economically.

~~~
toomuchtodo
We’re not kidding ourselves. California now mandates solar for new
construction on residential roofs. The cost of solar will continue its
decline. It’s even easier if you wrap your system cost into a mortgage or
finance with home equity on a long amortization schedule at historically low
rates.

I don’t think utilities are going away, but I also don’t think they’ll be so
profitable as to invest in them as a retail investor (which was the initial
discussion above).

~~~
jsight
I mean, in a sense they really haven't been a big money-maker as an investment
in the past either, barring some exceptions. They are stable dividend stocks
and I don't really see that changing.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Keep in mind GE used to be a reliable dividend stock until they bet
incorrectly on natural gas instead of renewables (and lost hundreds of
millions of dollars in the process).

------
refurb
People talk a lot about what will be the trigger for the next recession. I
could see it being tech. Not the blow up of 2001, but rather a capping out of
growth by the big tech companies as they turn into giant, stable to slightly
contracting behemoths.

~~~
not_a_moth
Also possible tech trigger: extremely unprofitable tech companies going
public. Slack, Uber, Lyft, etc. In fact,

"In 2018, 81 percent of US companies were unprofitable in the year leading up
to their public offerings... That's a statistical dead heat with the rate in
2000, the year the dot-com bubble burst"[1]

[1] [https://www.vox.com/2019/3/6/18249997/lyft-uber-ipo-
public-p...](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/6/18249997/lyft-uber-ipo-public-
profit)

~~~
refurb
Yup! It's still a big unknown if those companies can actually live up to their
expectations with regards to profitability.

I have a sense as soon as the first one fails, the others will be under a lot
of pressure combined with negative sentiment.

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germanlee
"All Companies Are in the Tech Business Now"

[https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-05-08/all-
co...](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-05-08/all-companies-
are-in-the-tech-business-now)

"Every Company Is Now a Tech Company"

[https://www.wsj.com/articles/every-company-is-now-a-tech-
com...](https://www.wsj.com/articles/every-company-is-now-a-tech-
company-1543901207)

It's amazing how the story changes just within a few months or years. Tech is
the future of everything one day. The next, its glory days are behind it.

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_bxg1
Tech's growth has been riding on monopolies (FAANG) and useless, manipulative
apps (a large portion of SV startups) for the past decade. It's no surprise
that a correction is coming. Useful software will never stop being important,
but there's a whole lot of fat right now that's just waiting to be trimmed
from the industry.

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stantaylor
It's really about the top of the US tech sector. I'm not sure I buy the
thesis, but the problems that she highlights are real. The US is finally
beginning to lose its historic dominance in the market.

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lostmsu
Or maybe she just does not know which tech to invest into.

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debt
I always say that the gap between now and the future will be filled with
technology. So I don't know what she's referring to as the only path towards
the future is through technology.

~~~
kabes
Maybe try and read the article first. It's a she and it's about the US market.

