
America has more new spaceships on the way - samizdis
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/06/after-dragons-historic-docking-america-has-more-new-spaceships-on-the-way/
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mabbo
Starship has a real potential to be accelerated beyond the schedule given
because of the return to the moon.

NASA gave SpaceX a lump of cash a couple of months ago to fully spec out a
Moon-lander variant of Starship, along with two other companies. It's
outlandishly large compared to its competitors, but SpaceX has this knack for
doing things cheaply.

Imagine what happens if NASA looks at all three plans and says "They're all
equal in terms of meeting our goals, except that Starship has many times the
payload capacity and is cheaper than the others". Add in SpaceX's pretty good
record for success, and it could make the decision interesting.

If they are selected, suddenly there would be a lot more money in SpaceX's
hands dedicated to developing Starship even faster. They could blow up 2
prototypes per month instead of just 1.

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thePunisher
I don't see Starship landing on the Moon. It's just too big and unwieldy and
will likely topple upon touchdown.

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dfee
Are you an aerospace engineer? Because the credibility of your comment hinges
on that.

~~~
LolWolf
Hey, Kerbal Space Program is a perfectly valid alternative to a degree in
Aerospace engineering!

EDIT: Obviously kidding.

~~~
beckingz
Resume: -Designed and simulated entire spacecraft and rocket system for
hypothetical moon landing. -Simulated thousands of spacecraft lithobraking
events to assess spacecraft durability

~~~
stcredzero
Lithobraking might well become viable with some combination of tethers and
electromagnetic accelerators to mediate.

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twic
It's fun to read articles from a few years ago [1]:

> With SpaceX projecting a first Falcon Heavy flight in 2015, even with some
> slippage it seems reasonable to suppose that Falcon Heavy will be at least
> as “operational” in 2018–19 as the SLS. Both craft should have made at least
> one flight, allowing mission planners to ground future efforts in reality
> rather than speculation.

My prediction is that the SLS will never fly. Development might not be
cancelled for a long time, because it's a jobs programme, but it will never
fly.

If Orion ever goes to the moon, i think it will start the journey on a SpaceX
rocket. If Starship works out, then on that. If not, then on Falcon Heavy with
extensive in-orbit assembly before the trip. Or perhaps even some four-booster
Falcon Super Heavy, although probably not.

[1]
[https://thespacereview.com/article/2737/1](https://thespacereview.com/article/2737/1)

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martythemaniak
It'll definitely fly once, but probably not more than that.

The first rocket, scheduled for an unmanned flight in late 2021, is ready-ish.
The second flight is currently scheduled for 2023 and I would agree that one
will never fly. With both Starship, and to a lesser extent New Glenn flying by
then, it would be sheer lunacy to continue with it.

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aerophilic
Interesting they didn’t also include Blue Origin in the mix:
[https://www.blueorigin.com/](https://www.blueorigin.com/)

In my opinion, we should see crewed sub-orbital flights from them within the
year, and possibly crewed orbital flights in the 4-8 year time frame... where
those crewed orbital flights may have capacity to go all the way to the moon.

~~~
valuearb
BO has been testing New Shepherd for four years with little visible progress,
hoping for crewed flights this year is audacious. It’s unclear whether New
Shepherd will even be continued based on all the other projects on their
plate, and the likely limited demand for their minimal joyrides.

And calling them sub-orbital is being generous. Mercury suborbital flights
flew much higher and faster, and actually covered hundreds of miles in a
parabolic arc. By comparison New Shepherd is a toy, a very expensive
trampoline.

~~~
JumpCrisscross
> _with little visible progress_

They've been making a lot of progress. The BE-4 engine is under development.
And their orbital rocket and lunar lander were announced within the last few
years.

It's a slow-and-steady approach, sure, but they're making tangible progress.

~~~
valuearb
Press releases aren’t progress.

Work on the New Glenn started in 2012. It was publicly announced in 2016. It’s
still at least a year from flight.

Work on the BE-4 started in 2011. It’s first public planned release date was
2017, it’s at least 4 years late.

~~~
mr_toad
Raptor engine development started in 2009. It took ten years for one to
actually fly.

~~~
valuearb
The Raptor was a tiny project at SpaceX, behind the Merlin, Falcon 9, and
Falcon Heavy in investment in its first years, and commercial crew in later
years.

BE-4 is the #1 project at BO, which is funding R&D at $1B a year.

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thePunisher
I wonder how much effort it would take to enable Crew Dragon to fly people to
the Moon and pull the rug from under Orion's feet?

A slightly improved heat-shield and some rad-hard electronics would do it
IMHO. That would save NASA another $10 billion or so.

I find the statement that there's a public desire for a winged spaceship
silly. I haven't heard anyone call out for such a vehicle, certainly no chant
from the general public. The dream of an airliner-like space shuttle died when
Columbia disintegrated upon reentry.

~~~
aphextron
>"I find the statement that there's a public desire for a winged spaceship
silly."

I have to disagree. For all the technological achievements of SpaceX, we still
don't have the capabilities lost with the Shuttle. No other spacecraft before
or since has had the ability to launch 8 astronauts and return multi-ton
cargos from LEO. There was also just something so cool about having a freaking
_spaceship_ that capsule designs will never have, and that shouldn't be
discounted. I couldn't help but feel somewhat depressed watching the Dragon
launch like we have regressed as a society, no longer daring to push the
limits and strive for absurdley ambitious things like the Shuttle did.

~~~
maccam94
Upmass is way more important right now than downmass. If you want more
inspiration, know that SpaceX is making a significant profit on these flights
despite their price being a small fraction of shuttle flights. And they're
pouring it into their next generation rocket, Starship, which they plan to
launch around the Moon in a few years.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship)

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fasteddie31003
Can someone explain to me why NASA did not use Orion to get crew to the ISS?

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bryanlarsen
\- Orion doesn't have the necessary docking adapter.

\- Orion costs well over $1 billion per capsule, plus almost another $2
billion for the SLS rocket to ride on. In total that's more than the $2.6B
they paid SpaceX for NRE + 6 flights. (NRE on Orion was $20billion and SLS
will be even more)

\- The SLS rocket isn't ready yet.

\- Boeing can't build more than one SLS per year.

~~~
kanox
> Orion doesn't have the necessary docking adapter.

NASA actually enforced a standard docking systems for all capsules:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_Docking_System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_Docking_System)
. In theory it's androgynous so it might even be possible to dock capsules to
each other.

Orion is extremely heavy (26 tons fully fueled) so it would need a Falcon
Heavy or D4 Heavy. This would make it very expensive.

It's also politics: since the early 2010s SLS has been the only "supported"
vehicle for Orion thus tying the two programs together.

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am_lu
I would love if we were going to space united. Humans of Terra got new
spaceships on the way.

~~~
skissane
Most countries don’t invest much in space. As a percentage of GDP, US is
second only to Russia in government civilian space funding. (Given US GDP is
over 12 times that of Russia, US spending is higher than Russia in absolute
terms.) For your dream to come true, other countries have to increase their
expenditure. (My own country Australia is among the guiltiest here - the
Australian Space Agency’s budget is less than 10 million a year - it should be
a hundred times that.)

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SeanFerree
Love it!

