

Opinion: Why desktop Linux may have lost its chance - Sandman
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9132158/Opinion_Why_desktop_Linux_may_have_lost_its_chance?taxonomyId=122&pageNumber=1

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coconutrandom
Don't bother reading it. Here is the last paragraph.

    
    
      As apps and data move into the cloud, the traditional
      PC metaphors are beginning to lose their relevance.
      We're entering the age of the invisible PC: a world 
      where Windows may soon seem as archaic and limiting 
      as the mainframes of yesterday. The new computing 
      model is extending the digital workspace beyond 
      the desktop to a range of new devices -- including 
      smartphones, netbooks, and gadgets not even 
      invented yet. Some of these devices run Linux now, 
      and many more will in the future. The value 
      proposition of open source for hardware manufacturers 
      is such that Linux's future as a vital, thriving 
      client-side OS is all but assured. It just won't
      be on the desktop.
    

Don't bother reading that even. Here it is in a sentence.

    
    
      A lot of people don't use Linux.

~~~
stanleydrew
A lot of people don't use linux, but they will in the future, just not on the
desktop, cause nobody will use a desktop in the future?

~~~
coconutrandom
Right. This "client-side OS" that "is all but assured" will be running on
the... server perhaps? Haha!

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jsz0
It's hard to beat the home team. Microsoft (and Apple) created what we think
of as a desktop computer. It's not enough for Linux to be "just as good" and
not even enough for them to be "a little bit better" Linux would have to
totally redefine what a desktop computer is and how it works. I don't think
there's enough room for innovation in what we think of as a desktop computer
experience for that to ever happen. As this article rightly states Linux is on
the ground floor of the next wave and that's a good spot to be. Linux won't be
visible however. How many TIVO owners know they're running Linux? 1%? less?
It's a great product though because TIVO was able to focus on things like
usability, UI design, predictive recording, etc. Linux is a fantastic
foundation but someone else has to build the house.

~~~
thwarted
Yeah, there's always been a lot of "I can't use anything other than what I'm
used to because everything else is too different" and "Why would I switch to
that? It works exactly like what I already have". I've heard this from a
number of people over the years concerning even trying Linux, both usually
from the same person.

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nazgulnarsil
the main problem with linux is that it doesn't limit the users choices enough.
It's fine to keep all the choices available, but put them behind the scenes.
When someone boots up a linux distro for the first time they should see a
browser, a word processor, email, a media player, and an IM client...some
basic games too. ubuntu netbook remix is the best example of this that i've
seen. Once you get this down, polish polish polish. The average user doing
average tasks should _never_ see anything but a slick GUI. If you sit any non
computer savvy person down in front of it and they see anything else you have
failed and you need to do more tweaking.

this is why apple can charge a huge premium on their products. people sit down
and it _goes_.

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dan_the_welder
I have used Windows through many generations. I was happy. I began to feel
frustrated as a user because I felt constrained somehow. I could find tools
but actually making tools, i.e. programming, was out there somewhere that I
could not get a handle on. I grew up on machines with BASIC at the command
prompt and was initially just fine with Windows. I had a spreadsheet and email
and a browser, what more could I want? I initially tried Ubuntu Linux because
of a piece of software that was only available on Linux. I found Linux
incredibly frustrating. Where were my clickable GUIs? Command lines and sudo
and permissions drove me crazy. Eventually I became somewhat comfortable with
those things, found my way through the various forums, learned the file
hierarchy well enough to deal. Downloaded an IDE or 6, played with C and
Python and Ruby. Got to the point where I can fix a weird problem in an hour
or so. And.... I still have this legacy XP machine that my business runs on. A
machine I have grown to hate, that feels like a prison. That requires constant
registry cleaning, virus removing and endless invested time that does not lead
to any kind of progress.

But....I can't just jump on over to Linux completely. I have Quickbooks
holding me back. Eventually I will get SQL Register going or some other
solution running and slurp all the legacy data from two companies into it.

I am an earlyish adopter, not at the front of the curve but before the hump
for sure. I am not a typical user I am small business oriented, certainly not
a gamer or a casual user.

I believe that Linux will prevail in time. It is important to remember that
the widespread use of computers is barely a decade old. It may seem like an
eternity if you are living in the fast paced world of development and
business, but it has been only seconds for everyone else.

~~~
bensummers
Have you considered running your legacy Windows software in a VM? VirtualBox
is free.

~~~
vetinari
If the GPL version is enough, then yes, it is free. But the free as a beer
binary is not free for his purposes.

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hvs
I think the author makes some very valid arguments and presents them in a non-
dogmatic way (from either side). I use Linux at home and Windows at work and
am fairly happy in both environments. In general, I've found that Linux
applications tend to lack polish and Windows applications (and the OS) tend to
lack functionality (from a developer's POV).

I can also agree with the author that the fragmentation of the Linux market
poses a significant barrier to entry to most unintiated and nontechnical
users.

~~~
cema
Ubuntu has noticeably reduced fragmentation of the "user-visible" Linux
(client-side). Fragmentation of the server side Linux (Red Hat, SUSE etc) is
less important.

Ubuntu has also somewhat lowered the startup costs and the learning curve. Of
course, only so much can be done in this department.

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drhowarddrfine
I'd rather leave versions of Linux like Ubuntu and their ilk and keep the
amateurs out of our way as we use the professional setups and leave us alone.

~~~
ghshephard
Professional in terms of Enterprise Finance/HR - like Windows XP/Vista/7?
Professional in terms of Music/Design (OS X)? Professional in terms of Rock
Solid Reliability and Stability (AIX?) Professional in terms of Security?
(OpenBSD?)

I wonder which Profession choses Linux? Software Developers are all over the
map. Professional Startups? Professional SysAdmins?

~~~
pohl
I'm satisfied by "professional as in not a mere pundit". Why would it need to
be more specific than that? Yeah, I know pundits get paid. I figured it was
implied that we were limiting the scope to those who use the system in
question.

