
The Cult of Elon Is Cracking - AndrewBissell
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/05/elon-musk-coronavirus-pandemic-tweets/611887/
======
throwawaysea
This article is strange. There are a few random anecdotes, which aren't useful
since they could be selectively picked to paint a certain narrative that fits
this headline. It's more interesting to focus on the things Elon has said that
this article chooses to call out. The article notes that Elon's claims are
false but that isn't true across all the examples shared in this article.

> In the past few months, Musk has downplayed the dangers of the virus,
> offered unfounded predictions about how many Americans it will infect, and
> falsely claimed that children are “essentially immune” to COVID-19.

Kids _are_ essentially "immune", although that word is being used somewhat
informally in this text, since they can still transmit the virus despite
almost always experiencing mild or no symptoms. Children have incredibly low
infection mortality rate from COVID-19. Case fatality rate for children 0-9 is
still _0_
([https://www.hopkinsguides.com/hopkins/view/Johns_Hopkins_ABX...](https://www.hopkinsguides.com/hopkins/view/Johns_Hopkins_ABX_Guide/540747/all/Coronavirus_COVID_19__SARS_CoV_2_)),
and other sources that disagree nevertheless report very low non-zero figures.
The recent reports of children exhibiting symptoms of Kawasaki disease due to
COVID are dubious and even if they are confirmed, the incidence rate would be
_incredibly_ low ([https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/no-severe-
inflammator...](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/no-severe-inflammatory-
symptoms-in-infected-children-here-moh)). The incidence of severe symptoms
required intensive care among children is as low as 0.58%, and this is among
those who are confirmed cases, which is a biased sample due to the lack of
universal testing ([https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coronavirus-
disease-2019-c...](https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coronavirus-
disease-2019-covid-19-considerations-in-children)).

> He has called, over and over again, for rolling back the widespread measures
> put in place to slow the spread of the virus, a move that public-health
> officials believe could be lethal.

There is nothing unreasonable about making the case for reopening. Many
countries have already taken various steps towards reopening, as early as over
a month ago ([https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-
updates/2020/0...](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-
updates/2020/04/14/834428062/in-europe-cautious-steps-away-from-coronavirus-
and-toward-normalcy)). Some US states relaxed their orders partially at the
beginning of May and they haven't seen spikes either
([https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-
usa/so...](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/so-far-
no-spike-in-coronavirus-in-places-reopening-us-health-secretary-says-
idUSKBN22T0HN)).

We wouldn't shut down society to save just one life - that would mean that we
need to just keep society shutdown even under normal (pre-COVID) conditions,
since there is always some degree of risk as we go about our lives. So clearly
there is a nonzero number of deaths that is acceptable, and there isn't going
to be one "correct number" for everyone. We all have different values,
worldviews, and risk tolerances. Additionally, vaccines are not a near term
solution. And keeping society in this shutdown state for 1-2 years is likely
unacceptable to most people. So we have to confront the reality of choosing
guidelines that allow a responsible reopening. Discussing or advocating for
that is OK and is not irresponsible. This isn't a binary choice between
complete shutdown and total normalcy.

> About two weeks later, Musk tweeted that, “based on current trends,” the
> United States would have “probably close to zero” new COVID-19 cases by the
> end of April. The prediction turned out to be wildly incorrect, but Musk
> didn’t acknowledge his error. That irked some of his fans, who trusted him
> to get it right.

This is about the only critique from this article that I think is fair. Elon
was incredibly off on this prediction, and hasn't owned up to it. But on the
other hand, I also think we should acknowledge the incorrectness of experts
and predictions made by sources we are told to trust. Many predicted doomsday
numbers that didn't come true. Models from sources like the IHME are
constantly revised, and figures have shifted wildly through these updates. The
WHO was wrong about there being no human to human transmission, and about the
efficacy of masks, and other aspects. So does it really make sense to be
outraged at just Elon Musk when everyone else isn't being held to the same
standard of perfection?

