

Google’s New Business Model - pmcpinto
http://stratechery.com/2014/googles-new-business-model/

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reader5000
Whether they know it or not, and they probably do, their actual business is
replacing individual human decision making with the ultra-optimal decision
making of the cloud.

The best metaphor is the Navigate function of Google Maps.

Not only does Google Maps know more about real-time traffic patterns than your
primitive human senses can access, but it can also best crunch that real-time
data into optimal route finding way better than your primitive human brain.

Extrapolate from there into all areas of human life. Not saying this
extrapolation is technologically straightforward, but this is what is
happening.

Google isn't the only one in this space obviously. IBM and medical decision
making is another big example.

Computers can make better decisions than you can. Not yet, but soon.

~~~
_mulder_
The Navigation example is a not a typical 'human decision'. We can't decide to
avoid traffic if we don't know it's there, Google provides a method of
detecting and analysing traffic that Humans could never do. Admittedly, it
does then automatically recalculate the next most optimal route (sometimes).

A better example of a human decision would be, which "T-Shirt shall I buy?" or
"What shall I have for dinner?". Google can't yet replace this decision making
because it doesn't have flare. It can detect patterns and analyse them very
well, but it can't be original. Yes, if you have Pizza for dinner every Tues
then Google can tell you this, but if you do that every Tues then it's not
really a 'decision' that Google is replacing, just highlighting a pattern. But
until Google can read minds, or sense and analyse human hormones, it's not
going to know if you would rather eat Indian or Mexican for dinner. It could
suggest either, possibly based on previous eating habits, but it would just be
a suggestion, and a guess at that.

As a further side-note, how does replacing human decision making translate
into a business model?

~~~
pekk
It doesn't matter that much which t-shirt or which dinner. People choose bad
t-shirts and bad dinners all the time.

Even when people choose these things well, it isn't because they are
"original" but because they are attending to context, e.g.: an automatically
generated t-shirt on Amazon referencing rape is not appropriate to wear in
public, and if I eat pizza so often I may develop diabetes.

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normloman
"A great number of Internet users today were not raised with computers; it’s
fair to question how many of those clicking on Google ads falls in this
group."

This "digital native" myth has got to end. I teach young children, and they
ain't the technological whiz kids like the ones portrayed in media. I could
see most of them clicking a Google ad at some point in their life.

~~~
RivieraKid
Why do you think it's a myth?

~~~
normloman
Observation. I've worked with hundreds of kids aged 8-16 from all different
backgrounds, all part of the "digital native" generation, yet hardly any can
tell the difference between a web browser and the internet. The more
technically inclined ones know how to rip mp3s from youtube videos, but none
have heard of bit torrent or file-locker sites. Most of them are surprised to
learn that webpages are made up of computer code, and more surprised to learn
that anyone can learn this code and make their own websites.

Yet the parents all watch in awe as their kid swipes their tablet to play
Angry Birds or Candy Crush. And then they remark "Man, kids these days. Just
give them a tablet, and they're already figuring out how to use them. Guess
the younger generation's just better at computers. Better than I'll ever hope
to be!"

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ihsw
For those curious about whether this is a repost -- this link goes to the
actual blog entry instead of the blog's homepage. It would probably be best of
the other submission[1] went to the linked article.

[1]
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7059548](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7059548)

~~~
ben336
That was my mistake. I posted it after reading, and didn't notice I was on the
home page.

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neals
The mind-boggling amount of money Google is making on their current
businessmodel. How are they ever going to "top" that? Is it even possible to
come close to anything so successful?

I think it's more circumstance that has lead to this success: the right people
working on the right project in the right time: Google is born. But now? It's
more about survival in the long run, the way I look at it.

~~~
hkmurakami
>"The mind-boggling amount of money Google is making on their current
businessmodel. How are they ever going to "top" that? Is it even possible to
come close to anything so successful?"

Well Apple makes more money than them, so while this observation will be
trite, yes, it should be "possible" to make something as successful as their
current business.

~~~
neals
Yes, I agree. Apple did re-invent themselves a with the iPod and iPhone a
couple of times and were successful in new markets when already being a large
company. I guess there is still hope for Google then :) Thanks.

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corresation
This story was still on the front page, with the identical title, when this
submission was made.

~~~
psbp
It's not even a good blog post. That Google is expanding its strategy is
pretty obvious. Actually proposing what it might be would have been
interesting.

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wavesounds
"this is Google’s first true attempt to diversify its business, in this case
into consumer devices."

Uh no its not, I own a Nexus 4 and Nexus 7 both of which were designed by
Google, sold on Google's online store and run an operating system developed by
Google.

Android now has more users then iOS, it's foolish to say they are just now
starting to diversify their business from online ads.

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blueskin_
Google's business model: "Invading privacy for fun^H^H^H^H the NSA and
profit."

