
Analysts put GM and Waymo far ahead in driverless car race - BerislavLopac
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/01/why-analysts-put-gm-and-waymo-far-ahead-of-tesla-in-driverless-car-race/
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sschueller
What is also interesting here is GM's Cruise doesn't need Uber to do what Uber
does.

However Uber needs cars to do what they do.

~~~
rcMgD2BwE72F
For now. Imagine that many people give up their personally-owed cars and rely
on subscriptions in the next few years.

Sales of cars would drop fast for manufacturers who don't have a on-demand
service network with a sufficient critical mass.

Don't forget that giants went close to bankruptcy around 2008 with only a few
% of global sales decrease.

Their market cap could drop low enough for Uber/Google/Apple (and their
investors) to acquire them on the cheap.

~~~
Retric
Uber has massively subsidized users for years, but they don't have the cash to
keep doing this for very long or buy a fleet of self driving cars. When self
driving cars do take off you can expect a spike of sales as people really want
that feature. So, Uber would need to survive ~15 years before any major car
companies feel the squeeze and I doubt they can make another 5.

~~~
encoderer
Uber would only need to raise fares 10% and not increase driver payouts to be
in the black. The dire predictions don’t seem connected to the balance sheet
I’ve looked at. Everybody wags their tongue at uber quarterly “loss” but they
pay no attention to the more important measure of free cash flow

~~~
Retric
Break even does not enable them to pay for massive investments. A 20% increase
would cost them significant ridership, but is more or less required to have
any significant profit.

~~~
nrhk
They would finance it through debt and equity, do it post IPO etc. There could
be a merger instead of an acquisition. Currently if they cut their R&D by a
bit and raise prices by 10% their more than healthy enough.

~~~
Retric
If they only raise prices by 10% it will cost them rides and drivers to Lyft /
taxi etc. It's hard to say how much market share this would cost them, but you
can't assume their numbers are going to be static with a price increase or
they would have already increased prices.

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chx
Well, golly. Google is rumored to spend over a billion yearly to maintain
their maps which are absolutely vital to a self driving car. That's a moat.

As for where the technology stands, it's no surprise they want to launch in
Phoenix first -- it doesn't rain there...

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theptip
Any candidate acquisitions for Waymo to buy the manufacturing capacity that it
needs? I don't know the car industry well, but looking at the market cap of
companies[1] it looks like you're talking at least $40-50B for an established
manufacturer (Nissan, Tesla are in that range). That is affordable for
Alphabet (~$80B cash on hand), but I'd be surprised if they went all-in like
that.

[1]:
[http://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/ind...](http://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/industry.asp?industry=53111)

~~~
csours
FCA (Fiat, Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Maserati, Alfa Romeo) wants to sell itself
or part of itself, but I can't imagine that Google would want to buy them.

Their share price/market cap has been going crazy lately, for no apparent
reason, perhaps indicating a buyer.

[https://ycharts.com/companies/FCAU/market_cap](https://ycharts.com/companies/FCAU/market_cap)

~~~
wcunning
Waymo is already partnered with Fiat-Chysler -- the current test platform is
the Chrysler Pacifica. Waymo also opened an office in Livonia, MI to be near
the University of Michigan MCity testing grounds and the Auburn Hills, MI
headquarters of their partner manufacturer.

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harlanji
Good! Competition is good. JVM was just-okay until .NET came along and forced
it to become great. I have my own car still because I don't like getting in
strange cars all the time. Most of time time it's okay, sometimes I am with
company and want privacy. Also when I need reliability it's worth paying $20
for parking in FiDi/SoMa (sometimes cheaper than a round trip from the
Sunset), and it's nice for group adventures to not have a stranger in the
car... slightly more/less convenient than rental options like Zip, depending
on personal factors.

Driverless taxi would make me a lot less likely to own I think, covers a few
more use cases. I still like cruising up Great Highway and through the park
(and the whole BA is beautiful), it'd be nice if they had a leisure mode for
the Sunday Drive, maybe even with parking to leave stuff while you venture
away.

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bckygldstn
Link to report: [http://fordmediacenter.nl/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/LB-
AV-1...](http://fordmediacenter.nl/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/LB-
AV-17-Navigant-Research_FINAL.pdf)

------
jacksmith21006
This will get to consumers through ride sharing services well before buying a
car with the capabilities. Transportation will just become more of a service.

The last numbers I have seen have Google still well ahead of everyone.

[https://www.wired.com/2017/02/california-dmv-autonomous-
car-...](https://www.wired.com/2017/02/california-dmv-autonomous-car-
disengagement/) Autonomous Vehicles Makers Report Disengagement Numbers in ...

------
dsfyu404ed
An aircraft carrier can't turn on a dime but once it turns you have a f-ing
aircraft carrier.

When GM or some other BigCo throws its weight behind something that something
gets done.

~~~
saas_co_de
They can't innovate but once other people innovate they can copy and buy up
their technology and commercialize it more successfully.

With self-driving cars the tech is only phase one. The legal/regulatory/social
issues come next and that is where a company like GM with all of its political
connections can really press their advantage.

Even a company like Google is small time compared to GM when it comes to
lobbying and political power with all of the unions, dealers, suppliers, trade
associations, etc they have built up over a 100 years.

~~~
cmrdporcupine
GM has been innovating just fine in the EV segment, with the Volt, Spark EV,
and now the Bolt. All three were extremely well engineered and relatively
affordable -- if not as 'hip' as a Tesla. And designed mostly in house (the
Bolt owes a lot to LG)

I'm fairly impressed. I'm sure like most BigCorps it's not a fun or terrible
nimble place to work, but it seems like they've got at least some aspects of
their engineering culture figured out.

~~~
ams6110
I'm surprised and a little disappointed that Ford hasn't done more. They have
the EV version of the Focus but AFAIK it's only sold in California.

Edit: 2018MY Focus Electric is a limited production model sold in select
states (CA/CT/MA/MD/ME/NJ/NY/OR/RI/VT) at Ford EV Certified Dealers

[https://www.ford.com/cars/focus/models/focus-
electric/?intcm...](https://www.ford.com/cars/focus/models/focus-
electric/?intcmp=fueleff-featcta-focus-electric)

~~~
cmrdporcupine
Yes, they have been very tepid (only selling in CARB type states) and actually
the quality of their EVs is subpar -- no active battery temperature
management, low range.

They're making noises about improving, but then they go and do the opposite.

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_Fricken
GM/Cruise developer here. GM's self-driving tech is a joke compared to
Waymo's. Don't be fooled by the advertising.

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thisisit
So, combining two expertise - first in form of self driving software and
second in form of hardware - is better than trying to build it alone like
Tesla or Apple.

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bob_theslob646
This same exact article was posted 20 hours ago.
([https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16171625](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16171625))

I am starting to get the impression that these websites, try and time when to
push articles to HN in order to bring in visitors to their site...

Some even change the title to get a more engaging tile.

~~~
dang
Overwhelmingly it's just regular users posting things they found interesting.
Reposts are ok if a story is good and it hasn't gotten attention yet:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html).

What you're talking about exists, but as far as we know it has little impact
on the site.

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Aoyagi
Eh. Cadillac's Supercruise™ technology doesn't seem to be that advanced,
really...

