
Cape Town could be the first city to run out of water - tonteldoos
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42626790
======
overlordalex
I live in Cape Town, and this article is missing some points about whats been
going on:

1\. "Day 0" has been moved forward - we're now expected to run out of water 21
April.

2\. The daily limit of water per person is 87l but only ~50% of consumers meet
this target

3\. This is considered a 1/1000 year event (in contrast to 1/100 experienced
elsewhere in the country recently). However due to increased population this
is being called "the new normal".

4\. Water allocation between residential/agriculture was done at some national
level, meaning the province wasn't able to manage the supplies correctly.

5\. 6/7 water relief projects are behind schedule - these include desalination
plants and aquifer pumps.

6\. We lose 15% of our water through leaks - much lower than the world average
but not as good as the best (around 10% in Australia and New Zealand)

Some other personal notes: 1\. There has been talk of tapping the aquifers for
decades - the studies haven't been prioritised and we still don't know how
much we can safely take. The outlying areas of Cape Town are essentially
marshes and during normal rainfall seasons are prone to flooding, so there is
definitely some space but noone knows how much.

2\. The city has lost R1.6b ($130m) in water fees due to reduced usage, so now
we're facing a "drought tax". To me this is bullshit but thats a whole other
post.

3\. The restrictions should not be eased once the dams are full - with climate
change and increasing population its only a matter of time until we run out of
water and no amount of rainfall is going to help

4\. When we run out of water there will be water trucks and collections
points, but there has been no talk of sanitation - I suspect a lot of people
are going to get really sick.

~~~
logingone
Regarding the policy being set at national level - I've seen mention of the
Western Cape seceding - how realistic was that, and has this had any effect on
that? I'm ex Durban/Johannesburg, abandoned the rainbow nation 20 or so years
ago with zero confidence in its future, and I'm afraid it was the right call;
part of me would love to return, and the WC (there's a pun there) seceding
would interest me for a move there.

~~~
chesimov
Well, there's an exodus from the rest of the country to the W. Cape. They call
it 'semigration'. Property was up 12% a while ago when all other provinces saw
a decline I think (except Gauteng; they were up 3%). As a young person of the
wrong demographic here though, myself and most of my friends are preparing for
possible departure for a few different reasons. If you are already established
in a field with an overseas nest egg that can't be touched by SA inflation
though, then Cape Town is probably one of the best cities to live in on the
planet. If you know what you're doing, living here is fantastic.

~~~
avn2109
Can you elaborate on what makes CT so good? My South African friends always
say this but I can't get a straight answer out of them why it's so great.

------
zingar
A few points from a Capetonian observing a potential disaster in slow motion:

(a) I don't know how claims about the % of users who are toeing the water
restriction line can possibly be accurate. what is the population of Cape Town
- last major census in 2011. What if there are actually 50 000 more people in
CT than we think?

(b) water production is at just about half of what it was at peak in Jan 2015
despite population growth. This is surely a remarkable achievement, presumably
a result of considerable collective action. Source (production graph here:
[http://resource.capetown.gov.za/documentcentre/Documents/Cit...](http://resource.capetown.gov.za/documentcentre/Documents/City%20research%20reports%20and%20review/damlevels.pdf))

(c) the most egregious users have had water restriction devices installed -
maybe the bar is too high and city should be stricter about when this measure
is taken.

(d) the daily production of water has been more or less constant since July.
This tells me that there is not that much more give. The only serious
reduction I could see is through very difficult to enforce measures e.g.
buckets only instead of showers. However I would prefer to do this now instead
of having dry taps in April.

On a personal note: many home owners have boreholes and full rainwater tanks
(it is difficult to store more than a few rainy days' worth of water). My
parents' tank is +- 20 days of water at 87l pp per day, although they do not
currently have a way to purify the water. My block has a plan to put borehole
water into the flats. I don't think anyone knows how long borehole water will
last though as there has been a massive spike in drilling.

------
igitur
We are a couple living in Cape Town. For the past 6 months we've been
averaging 60 litres per person per day, with a downward trend. We don't have a
swimming pool. We don't water the garden or lawn. It looks hideous, but those
steps were easy gains.

It's our water closet habits that had to change drastically. If it's yellow,
let it mellow. If it's brown, let it drown. We shower, very quickly, with 2
buckets and try to catch as much water as possible. We turn off the shower
while lathering up with soap and would dip our sponges in the buckets if we
need to add water to the mix. It's basically taking a bucket bath in a shower
and a quick rinse afterwards.

We use the gathered water to drown the brown. Sometimes a quick flush with
water from the cistern is necessary, but we can limit the flush by lifting the
lever (unlike older cisterns).

Other people have installed tanks in their backyards to collect rainwater from
the roof, but we don't have the space.

It's an inconvenience, but so far it hasn't been too difficult to get under
the 87 litre target. It just required some attention, and very importantly,
frequent monitoring. Frankly, I'm disgusted that more than half of my fellow
citizens couldn't reach the target.

------
mallin
For anyone wanting to read more about this, here are some articles and data
from the Climate System Analysis Group at the University of Cape Town.

This article explains the severity of the drought, and calculates that the
return interval for a two-year drought of this severity is 1150 years (!),
which mostly absolves the City of blame for not anticipating it:
[http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/2017/08/28/how-severe-is-this-
drou...](http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/2017/08/28/how-severe-is-this-drought-
really/)

Here, you can see an interactive plot of rainfall in Cape Town. Highlight
2017, 2016 and 2015 to see the reason for the current crisis:
[http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/current-seasons-rainfall-in-
cape-t...](http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/current-seasons-rainfall-in-cape-town/)

Addressing the scaremongering by the City around "the new normal":
[http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/2017/11/01/is-cape-towns-
drought-t...](http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/2017/11/01/is-cape-towns-drought-the-
new-normal-piotr-wolskis-article-for-groundup/)

Describing the difficulty of forecasting this drought:
[https://theconversation.com/why-cape-towns-drought-was-so-
ha...](https://theconversation.com/why-cape-towns-drought-was-so-hard-to-
forecast-84735)

~~~
ProblemFactory
> calculates that the return interval for a two-year drought of this severity
> is 1150 years (!)

This is however calculated based on historical weather data from 1920s
onwards. With climate change ongoing and increasing, we can't rely on
historical weather patterns staying accurate for future predictions. Old every
100 or 1000-year droughts can become every 10-year droughts.

------
jakewins
We've been looking at reducing water use this spring; someone else might find
these products useful:

OAS(1) showers cap water at 5-10L per use, no matter how long you shower.
Getting this installed also means we can swap our water heater to run on the
solar array entirely, since you're not flushing all that energy down the drain
while you shower.

Waterless urinals(2) use no water at all. They work by keeping a layer of oil
in the trap instead. Pee sinks under the oil layer and out of the trap, oil
stays in the trap since it floats on top. So, stays just as clean as a regular
toilet, with no water hookup.

Disclosure: None, I've got nothing to do with these companies, other than
buying their products for my cabin.

(1) [https://orbital-systems.com/](https://orbital-systems.com/)

(2) [https://www.waterless.com/](https://www.waterless.com/)

~~~
goda90
The economics of those OAS filters don't motivate me much, since two adults
taking 15 minute showers a day each would result in $40/month for filters
alone. 15 minute showers per day per person in a normal shower would cost me
less than $15/month in water bills.

Obviously there are use cases that need that more than I do, since I live in a
wet, temperate area with plentiful water tables, but I think it demonstrates
that our problems with water, and pollution, and other environmental issues
have come from taking the cheapest/easiest options, so we need to work hard to
make more attractive sustainable solutions for the average person.

------
tonteldoos
I'm currently in Brisbane, and arrived here while the big drought was still in
progress (around 2008). Numerous restrictions, legislation for water saving
measures, desal plants, etc were being implemented at the time, with pretty
astounding results in terms of average water consumption.

The drought broke in January 2011, and it's a little sad to see how much that
was learnt, has been forgotten in the last 7 years. Desal plants all but
mothballed, average consumption gone up (almost double the drought levels
again), etc. I really hope the drought in Cape Town breaks soon (I have many
friends there), but I hope they don't unlearn the lessons, and kill
infrastructure when it does.

Interestingly, late last year, it was pointed out by the authorities that the
dams are at warning (pre restriction) levels again here, so I dare say we will
see it all again.

~~~
mikro2nd
Very unlikely that the Cape Town drought will break any time soon. The city is
in a Winter rainfall region, so there's little chance of significant rains
before May or June, and even then -- and assuming that rainfall returns to
something resembling "normal" \-- it will take several years for dams to fully
restock. A single rainy season ain't gonna do it (unless there're some pretty
catastrophic rains. ;)

~~~
nevi-me
Which is sad, and shows the reality of climate change.

In Joburg we've had a few "100 year" floods in a year, so much water pouring
down that we're forgetting that we had a drought last year.

------
devnull791101
even though the dams are almost depleted the city's lack of water is more due
to political issues than water management. the government is insisting that
the local desalination plant manufacturer (which supplies australia and other
countries) operate through a "Black Economic Empowerment" partner which
heavily inflates the cost, and most likely will be tied to "the worlds most
corrupt presidents" partners in crime, the Gupta family.

~~~
lgleason
This is why this is happening. Everybody is quick to jump on the climate
change bandwagon, but the government in ZA is VERY inefficient, incompetent
and corrupt... to the point of making many other countries worst days look
like competence. If the land reform goes through without compensation expect
it to get a lot worse (which is being actively talked about by some of the
parties). The compensated land reform has already been a disaster. Farms that
were purchased and distributed went from being productive farms to producing
nothing in many cases. This is all about mis-management. The Western Cape
provincial government, which is where Cape Town is, is one of the more
functional governments in the country too.

------
snowwolf
This has also led to an interesting social experiment based on a theory
developed by the University of California
([http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272494414...](http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272494414001066))
where household water consumption has been made public
([https://citymaps.capetown.gov.za/waterviewer/](https://citymaps.capetown.gov.za/waterviewer/))
in order to apply social pressure on high users.

~~~
snthpy
Cape Town also has this now, although the usage levels are very granular:

[https://citymaps.capetown.gov.za/waterviewer/](https://citymaps.capetown.gov.za/waterviewer/)

~~~
chesimov
The heaviest offenders have also had mandatory electronic limiters fitted to
their properties, permitting no more than 350L per property per day (as of
now)

------
sgt
It's definitely a big problem, yet I see a lot of creative solutions which
gives us a bit of hope for the future. People are also working together to
keep water consumption at its lowest.

A lot of people are gathering rain water with big water tanks next to their
houses. I've personally built a setup connected to the gutters of my roof, and
it's amazing how much water you can gather like this.

It's also quite easy to keep your swimming pool topped up by simply getting a
cover for it so that water does not evaporate.

However the occasional light rains won't do much to affect the big dams that
supply drinking water to the wider population of Cape Town. There simply has
been too little rain these past winters to fill the dams up to an adequate
level.

I think the long term solutions for Cape Town will be increasing and improving
the water catchment areas so the dams can cope with the population increase,
possibly combined with desalination plants if it gets really bad.

~~~
pbhjpbhj
A pool must use a lot of water - perhaps heavy taxation on [water for] pools
would help in the future?

~~~
ti_ranger
It's been illegal to use municipal water in pools for a few months now. Most
municipal swimming pools are closed.

Before that (around March 2017), you were only allowed to do so if you had a
'pool blanket', which makes a huge difference.

(The little amount of rain we have received over the past few weeks is
sufficient to keep the levels high enough in our pool to keep the water level
above the weir, without having used other water)

------
pure-awesome
Watch out for Waterseer. Not sure I trust that company after their ludicrous
misjudgement in their first invention:

[Thunderfoot
Video]([https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVsqIjAeeXw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVsqIjAeeXw))

[Lindybeige
Video]([https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zfYAXWODUs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zfYAXWODUs))

Side-note: I live in the Cape Town area. We got on international news! Yay
us...?

Honestly, I'm pretty worried.

------
ilitirit
For visitors to CPT, it may not seem like a city that is undergoing a drought.
Indeed, CPT still gets a fair bit of rain, if lower than previous years. The
problem is we do not get rain in areas where our dams that provide drinking
water are situated.

------
baxtr
Here’s the link to the official “Day 0” page:

[http://coct.co/water-dashboard/](http://coct.co/water-dashboard/)

------
pfarnsworth
The irony I've found is that when you cut water usage, the water company will
INCREASE your fees because they're not making enough money. They tell us to
save water, and then turn around and charge us more for using less, it's very
angering.

~~~
jedberg
Equally angering is when they set the conservation target as a percent of your
previous usage.

I _already_ conserve water, drought or not, because I'm cheap. When you tell
me I'm not meeting my conservation targets because I can't go down _another_
20%, that infuriates me, especially since my usage is already 50% lower than
my neighbors!

------
ainiriand
Governments should be aware that to produce 1 pound of beef you need 50000
liters of fresh water, and if they are aware, stop lying to the population.
But yes, I guess you could try to save 40 liters per day with your oil urinal.

~~~
kiliantics
State subsidy of certain agriculture, particularly beef and dairy, is
definitely one of the biggest crimes of our times.

------
candiodari
That last paragraph, literally following the statement before it just makes me
mad :

"But there is a sense that much of this technology is merely tinkering at the
edges. The overarching issue is the potentially devastating effect of global
warming on water availability and how we, collectively, endeavour to tackle
it."

Unfortunately this statement is absurd. The real cause:

"Most recent projections suggest that its water could run out as early as
March. The crisis has been caused by three years of very low rainfall, coupled
with increasing consumption by a growing population."

So an extremely rare event is causing a water shortage. How has climate change
affected this ? Well, it has moved the average of the distribution of rainfall
by a few percent (at most).

How far are we from the average ? Close to 3 sigma away from it, and
increasing every day. If the city actually runs out of water we'll be closer
to 4 sigma before it happens.

So how much influence does climate change have on it. Opening my python client
I feel like it can be distributed as such:

1) 99.99999% is a coincidence (a series of unrelated events spanning 4+ years
causing a lack of rainfall in the area)

2) 0.00001% is climate change

In other words, if you solved climate change today, nothing at all would
change for this city. And yet that claim from the BBC gets inserted there.

------
SideburnsOfDoom
Cape Town has had some record high temperatures in recent years (1) along with
the multi-year drought.

To what extent is this likely to be due to climate change?

1)

[http://www.traveller24.com/News/Alerts/sa-summer-heat-
breaks...](http://www.traveller24.com/News/Alerts/sa-summer-heat-breaks-
records-whats-going-on-with-the-weather-20160113)

[http://ewn.co.za/2017/12/07/heatwave-brings-record-
setting-t...](http://ewn.co.za/2017/12/07/heatwave-brings-record-setting-
temperatures-across-wc)

------
skc
It's a scary situation. Cape Town is a very popular tourist destination and
one wonders if that industry as a whole is managing to comply with the
restrictions (thus adversely affecting business)

------
dzhiurgis
Devices like WaterSeer have been debunked a while ago by guys like Dave from
EEVBlog. Basically the math behind them do not check out at all.

Does anyone got alternative views?

------
Feniks
Amusing since Cape Town was founded by the Dutch as a place to resupply for
the long voyage to the Spice Islands. Including clean drinking water.

~~~
ambivalence
Saying it's "ironic" would be somewhat harsh (but would still get the point
across), saying it's "amusing" is just cruel. You know there's real people
affected and the ones hurt will likely not be the ones responsible, right?

A bit of empathy would go a long way.

------
baxtr
I always wondered why you can buy a lot of H2O filled fruits like grapes from
South Africa in Europa. They must have some enourmous amounts of water if they
can export it. Maybe the price of water isn’t high enough yet or can’t be
paid?

~~~
21
South Africa is not a desert -
[http://www.grainsa.co.za/images/Articles/2012-08/reenval_fig...](http://www.grainsa.co.za/images/Articles/2012-08/reenval_fig02.jpg)

~~~
whatusername
And it’s bigger in area than any two European countries (excluding Russia)
combined. Just because there’s a drought in one part of Spain __ there might
be plenty of water somewhere in France.

~~~
baxtr
My point is: if there’s a case to fly water (in form of grapes) to Europe, why
would they not move water from one place in SA to another?

~~~
TallGuyShort
No one's consuming liters of grapes every day to survive - it's a nice-to-have
and not a staple. Transporting it in massive quantities (like enough to make a
dent in how much Cape Town consumes every day) changes the equation somewhat,
making it prohibitively expensive to do (compared to options like, hoping for
rain). Of course, this also changes the equation if we do get to the point
that many lives imminently depend on it - people don't riot to be first in
line to get grapes.

------
Synaesthesia
Surely Gaza ran out of water a long time ago ...

------
spodek
Just finished reading Affluence Without Abundance
[https://www.amazon.com/Affluence-Without-Abundance-
Disappear...](https://www.amazon.com/Affluence-Without-Abundance-Disappearing-
Bushmen/dp/1632865726) about bushmen who live in southern Africa.

It turns out people have lived in southern Africa for _200,000 years_ ,
hunting and gathering.

Westerners show up, run out of water in a couple hundred years, and call them
"developing."

The book is an eye-opener.

~~~
crankylinuxuser
Yes, but hunting and gathering in the bush doesn't do a damn about increasing
technology and getting us off this planet. All it takes is one planetary scale
disaster, and we're done for.

~~~
goldenkey
Actually from what I've read, hunter gatherers had 8+ hours of free time per
day. They weren't constantly running in fear of predators as usually thought.
There was plenty of time for invention if inclined.

------
pjc50
Sanaa, the capital city of Yemen, has already run out of water.
[https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-
blockade-r...](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-blockade-
redcross/2-5-million-yemenis-now-lack-access-to-clean-water-red-cross-
idUSKBN1DK1ZP)

There were serious problems before the war, but now it's just a disaster area.
The US supports this.

~~~
SideburnsOfDoom
The difference is, Cape Town is not in war time. I can't think of the last
time there was literal war in Cape Town, there's nothing in recent times. My
best guess would be "a small but significant military engagement" on 8 January
1806 (1).

Unrest in the late 1980s doesn't count.

As far as I know, there were no military engagements in Cape Town during the
Anglo-Boer wars (1880 - 1881 and 1899 – 1902).

1 )
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Blaauwberg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Blaauwberg)

~~~
overlordalex
There was some action in World War 2 with shipping around the peninsula, but
nothing in the city itself

~~~
chesimov
Yes, U-boats sank merchant shipping in Table Bay

------
timellis-smith
The largest of the dams supplying Cape Town (Theewaterskloof) has a massive
surface area (around 5000 ha). Given that the area also tends to be very windy
due to its altitude and the prevailing South Easter that blows right
throughout summer, evaporation must be really high. Also desalination is
energy intensive.

For political reasons I'm pretty sure this would be impossible, but I wonder
how practical it would be to cover it with solar panels and use the energy for
desalination.

