

At Least Half of Americans Diabetic or Pre-Diabetic by 2020 - kkleiner
http://singularityhub.com/2011/02/17/at-least-half-of-americans-diabetic-or-pre-diabetic-by-2020/

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jimrandomh
Here is the actual study (3 links deep):
<http://www.unitedhealthgroup.com/hrm/UNH_WorkingPaper5.pdf> . Take a look at
page 8, the one that contains this prediction. It was made by taking the rates
of diabetes and pre-diabetes in 2007 and in 2010 (37.0% and 39.9%
respectively), and drawing a line through them to get 51.9. That includes a
26.3% (2007) and 28.4% (2010) rate of "pre-diabetes", which really just means
a HbA1c test that was higher than average.

But between 2007 and 2010, the diagnostic test for pre-diabetes, the HbA1c,
got much cheaper and became part of routine screenings where it wasn't before,
so the slight uptick observed may actually be an artifact of increased
testing, and it is definitely _not_ part of a trend that can be linearly
extrapolated ten years out.

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getpost
It's true that obesity is a growing problem, and it is likely also true that
nearly all cases of type II diabetes can be prevented with dietary changes.
But, the article repeats the 'reduce saturated fat' meme, which lately has
been called into question.

Gary Taubes [http://higher-thought.net/complete-notes-to-good-calories-
ba...](http://higher-thought.net/complete-notes-to-good-calories-bad-
calories/)

Robert Lustig <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM>

Cynthia Kenyon [http://donmatesz.blogspot.com/2009/12/how-insulin-
controls-a...](http://donmatesz.blogspot.com/2009/12/how-insulin-controls-
aging.html)

Nutrition and Vision Research at Tufts (Allen Taylor)
[http://hnrc.tufts.edu/1192109687036/HNRCA-Page-
hnrca2ws_1192...](http://hnrc.tufts.edu/1192109687036/HNRCA-Page-
hnrca2ws_1192109688533.html)

Kurt Harris <http://www.paleonu.com/get-started>

Mike Eades <http://www.proteinpower.com/drmike/>

Uffe Ravnskov, "fat and cholesterol are good for you"
<http://www.ravnskov.nu/cholesterol.htm>

LivinLaVidaLowCarb <http://www.thelivinlowcarbshow.com/shownotes/>

Weston A Price [http://www.westonaprice.org/dentistry/289-invisible-
toothbru...](http://www.westonaprice.org/dentistry/289-invisible-
toothbrush.html)

William Davis <http://heartscanblog.blogspot.com/>

etc.

~~~
elptacek
Also, Marion Nestle: <http://www.foodpolitics.com/>

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elptacek
This article has a bad smell. One commenter said it best -- the author is
confusing 'risk factor' with 'cause'.

~~~
Derbasti
Which is less bad, but still bad and doesn't change the fact that obesiety is
a major problem that is growing rapidly.

~~~
elptacek
Curiously, problems aren't solved with weak methods of inquiry. They're also
not solved by pointing at them, jumping up and down, saying, "THIS IS A
PROBLEM! SOMEBODY FIX IT!"

There's this thing our parents said to us, "Whenever you point a finger,
there's three pointing back at you."

I guess they had a point, after all. Yes, there are FAT people. Yes, there are
MORE fat people than there used to be. There are also more alcoholics, drug
addicts, poorly educated children and incidents of road rage. These problems
have more in common than not. And one thing they have in common is that people
write articles about them using words like, "Scared yet?"

Useless tripe.

(eta: no pun intended)

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anamax
What fraction of "pre-diabetics" develop diabetes?

Note that people who live a long time actually consume more health care than
folks who don't. Yes, even if the oldsters are "healthy" because they get more
expensive and they keep consuming.

Black men in the US are pretty close to ideal from the public perspective.
Their biggest contribution is that they die right around retirement, so they
never see a dime of what they paid for govt retirement programs. However, not
only do they pay the taxes that the rest of us pay (SSI and medicare), they
also pay a disproportionate share of "lifestyle" taxes.

Yes, dying from lung cancer at 65 is cheaper from the public health
perspective than living to 95.

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Derbasti
Is this limited tomthe US or is this a global phenomenon?

I would guess that all developed countries suffer from these issues to some
degree, but the homeland of fast food and food franchises is probably world
champion.

Nevertheless, you can't really blame McDonalds--People choose what they do and
eat. Choose poorly, die young. But how can you argue for actual cooking with
fresh ingredients in a society that does not value these activities? How can
you make people see that fresh food actually tastes better _and_ literally
makes you a more happy person? How can you show people that light workout can
do more to enhance your life than any drug or TV show ever will?

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Joeri
What I don't get is why mcdonalds, with all their clout, doesn't make value
meals that are good for your health at the same time. People are lazy, so if
you allow them to be lazy and eat healthy food at the same time, there must be
a goldmine of potential revenue there. McDonalds could create a market for
healthy fast food and dominate it for decades to come, but they just sit there
like couch potatoes.

Typical innovator's dilemma I suppose.

~~~
Derbasti
Fat, salt and sugar make stuff taste 'good' because these were rare resources
when humanity was young. This is the simple recipy of McDonalds and it is true
for all food, including healthy stuff. If McDonalds were to use less fat and
sugar they would have to use more delicate and more expensive ingredients to
keep it yummie.

Sadly, many people care more for simple and cheap (i.e. fat and sugar) than
delicate and healthy (i.e. unprocessed food). Even though every doctor, cook
and common sense would advise otherwise.

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yummyfajitas
This article also links to the following article on "Blue Zones", which is
also very interesting:

[http://singularityhub.com/2009/07/20/blue-zones-places-in-
th...](http://singularityhub.com/2009/07/20/blue-zones-places-in-the-world-
where-people-live-to-100-and-stay-healthy/)

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kiba
Do you know how difficult and motivate oneself to an exercise routine, much
less change diet to a healthy and more expensive one?

Yes, it's the individual's fault that he didn't do much about it. However, we
must also recognize the obstacles that made it difficult for individuals to do
something about it.

I drive to school. I don't ride bikes or walk to school. The road aren't bike
friendly. The suburban landscape in which I live in, doesn't have sidewalks to
anywhere. There are sidewalks, and there's the uncomfortable feeling of
walking too close to traffics.

Whose fault is to promote and subsidize the car industry at the expense of
human health and everything else?

Someday, I will move to a town where I can walk and ride bikes to my heart's
content. Until then, I am focusing on becoming a viable programming
freelancer.

Meanwhile, million of Americans don't have the same option. They got a house
mortgage to pay, family to take care of..

~~~
Mz
FWIW: I have lived without a car for about three years. There are precious few
sidewalks where I live. I considered getting a bike but decided that would be
far worse than walking. At one point, I purchased a skateboard but failed to
learn to use it. I leave for work on foot every morning and we do our shopping
regularly on foot. Humans developed the ability to walk long before sidewalks
were invented. They aren't really necessary, though, certainly, some terrain
is more pedestrian-friendly than others.

If you are "unmotivated" and think it's hard, then it's possible you are
already more unhealthy than you think: Lack of energy and mental focus for
accomplishing goals is an early indicator of not really being well. And if you
think eating healthier is too expensive, you should look into what it costs
for medical care for a really serious chronic condition like diabetes. Google
"diabetic ulcer". People get their feet amputated after these ulcers have
eaten away flesh all the way to the bone. I guess having one or both feet
amputated is a good reason to not walk anywhere. I would rather keep my feet
though.

Giving up my car turned out to be wildly anti-climactic. The transition was
really not that big a deal -- though I already lived close to work and
shopping, so not everyone can just do it. But the first time I walked with my
sons to the local grocery store, on the way back, my oldest said "That's IT?"
He really thought it would be a lot longer walk than it was. My sons both
prefer walking to being in a car. They get out more now than when we owned a
car.

Peace.

~~~
kiba
_Giving up my car turned out to be wildly anti-climactic. The transition was
really not that big a deal -- though I already lived close to work and
shopping, so not everyone can just do it. But the first time I walked with my
sons to the local grocery store, on the way back, my oldest said "That's IT?"
He really thought it would be a lot longer walk than it was. My sons both
prefer walking to being in a car. They get out more now than when we owned a
car._

It took me 20 miles to drive to school. I can't imagine walking there.

BTW, I love to walk.

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Mz
As I said: Not everyone can just do it. But you did not initially state "it's
20 miles to school". Your objections were things like lack of sidewalks, which
I have found to be quite insignificant. Walking long stretches on pavement is
actually quite hard on the feet and joints. My sons and I have endless
criticisms of the "pedestrian highway" our city created. We have scathing
things to say about most of their "improvements", which essentially turned a
perfectly serviceable walking route into a bike path. Sigh.

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miles
Two highly-recommended resources for those struggling with diabetes:

<http://www.rawfor30days.com/> <http://www.drfuhrman.com/>

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known
Take 1000 mg Metformin twice a day. Walk 30 minutes every day. You'll be fine.

