
Autonomous Vehicle Disengagement Reports 2017 - Shank
https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/disengagement_report_2017
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pdoege
Reading the reports is a bit disconcerting. Waymo appears to be about 60x
better at these measurements than their competition.

The Tesla report says "these are not autonomous vehicles nor have they been
driven in autonomous mode". This might surprise some Autopilot users.

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JamilD
In Waymo’s most recently reported month, November 2017, they reported over
30,000 miles driven with only a single disengagement. It’s hard to dispute
that they’re years ahead of the competition at this point.

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perl4ever
I don't doubt they are ahead, but on the other hand it appears there are about
1.25 fatalities per 100 million miles from human drivers. If you equate a
"disengagement" to a human releasing all the controls of a vehicle and
covering their eyes in panic, then I think it's reasonable to extrapolate the
Waymo figure to about 3300 fatalities per 100 million miles. Which is about
2600 times worse than the human average.

This seems a bit odd, considering the people in other threads about self-
driving cars vehemently arguing that we must switch to self-driving cars
immediately to save lives.

On the bright side, once Waymo works out the bugs, we should have enough data
to say their self-driving cars are _probably_ comparable to humans in
about...270 years of no failures (100M/30K/12).

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cbames89
Can anyone point me to article, or provide an argument, as to why we should
trust these self-reported numbers?

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j88439h84
If these estimates are not accurate, what process produces them?

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cbames89
a process which favors looking good to the general public when there is no
consequence of fudging the numbers.

