
Analyst who exposed Vancouver's real estate disaster - surfallday
https://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/andy-yan-the-analyst-who-exposed-vancouvers-real-estate-disaster/
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viburnum
There are a handful of vibrant cities in the world that haven't been given
over to freeways and parking, and they're so rare and desirable that they've
become luxury goods that are speculated on, like they're paintings by Vincent
van Gogh. How sad is it that so far it's been impossible to simply make more
nice places for people instead of for cars?

~~~
api
I have to be contrarian in spite of aesthetically preferring the classical
city.

Nothing about the suburbs made sense to me until I had kids. Now everything
makes sense.

Young kids require a lot of gear. Hauling all that without a car is hard.
Walking and transit take time and kids have schedules or else you get
meltdowns. Kids also get bored.

Density helps transit time but kids need safe space to play and that is at a
premium in dense cities.

Unpacking and packing young kids into cars is painful. You have to get them
in, belted, etc., which for <5yos can be an ordeal each time. Enter the drive
through.

I could go all day.

Not saying you can't do kids in a city, just that the burbs make total sense
now.

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seanmcdirmid
I live in a downtown area atm specifically for my toddler. We go to the
grocery store everyday, we go to the nearby park, he doesn’t mind the transit
times. Ever since we changed his seat to face forward, he does love it when we
actually use the car, and sometimes demands it (kai che, kai che!), but it
isn’t really necessary unless we are going to the doctor or pool. We did
choose downtown Bellevue rather than downtown Seattle, however, which has a
huge park and not so many of the negatives of Seattle (homeless, drug needles,
etc...).

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gerbilly
> Yan says there may be some solution—a mix of remedies, new laws, purpose-
> built rental housing, tax adjustments and so on—that does not mean a
> collapse in Metro Vancouver’s real estate prices.

There never will be a solution because no one will vote for a government that
will bring down the value of their home.

~~~
ArchD
I never understood the point of having a 'high-value' home that you can't sell
anyway because you need a place to live.

Sure, you can say you can move somewhere cheaper and pocket the difference.
The problem is that until you actually do that, the cost of living will likely
follow the property price increase and hurt your wallet.

Unless most of the homeowners own more than one property.

~~~
vpribish
home prices have appreciated far faster than the cost of living during most of
people's lives.

~~~
pascalxus
don't expect this to continue. In the very very long term, price appreciation
of housing will always match inflation.

~~~
sgt101
In aggregate you might be right, but the issue is that people want to live in
specific places and are willing to spend their disposable income to get what
they want. As more and more people cross the threshold of absolute poverty
more and more money is chasing the same physical assets. Housing is not a
commodity asset.

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kitcar
It is frustrating as there are straightforward, cost-effective approaches the
government could take to better understand the problem and they have chosen
not to pursue in an expedited fashion either because of lack of effort or an
active desire to stay ignorant (due to upcoming election, impact on big
donors, etc...). Instead they just keep telling Canadians they will "allocate
funds to better research the issue", i.e. kick the can.

For example, a simple, 80/20 analysis they could perform: list at all real
estate held by holding companies in GVA and GTA and generate a list of their
corporate directors. Find people who are directors on a large number of those
holding companies, and check if they are related somehow to law firms,
banks/wealth managers, Real estate agents or immigration businesses. If so,
you now have a short list of potential properties being used for money
laundering that maybe merit further investigation.

Calling the top 25 people on that list should reveal some interesting
findings... Re-organize by property value if you want to catch bigger fish
first.

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nikanj
This was not a surprise exposure to anyone. Vancouver is a peculiar place,
where mobsters haul around duffel bags full of cash and various authorities
pretend everything is fine.

Lately gossip has mostly focused on the motivations of the various auditors
and authorities, who refuse to do their jobs. Leading theories include fear of
racism accusations, corruption, laziness, and of course gross incompetence.

~~~
Consultant32452
I suspect fear of winding up in one of those mobster duffle bags plays a part
too.

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xvf22
The mess has spread from Vancouver to Toronto and is now hitting Montreal hard
as well.

Article is from February 2018.

~~~
hi5eyes
its been getting CRAZY in toronto the past couple years

[https://globalnews.ca/video/5091538/ontario-police-search-
fo...](https://globalnews.ca/video/5091538/ontario-police-search-for-
kidnapped-chinese-national) just the past week

international students/people have been involved in some very frightening
crimes, this sort of stuff rarely happens much less to students.. i mean its
toronto/golden horseshoe for the most part its very safe

??? uhhh why am i getting downvoted?

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not_that_noob
Real estate remains one of last few asset classes where ownership can be
obfuscated reliably. This makes it ideal to park money of dubious provenance.
If you bring transparency to the system - much like know-your-customer did to
banking - this phenomenon will largely disappear. The local residents have
reached a point I think for this to happen in Vancouver - and it could spread
to other similar cities.

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bitxbit
What I find most interesting about the influx of Chinese money is that many
Chinese communities across North America were built by people who fled China
and its communist regime. One can argue that the beginning of the current
Vancouver housing boom was the Hong Kong transfer in 1997. And they built
tight-knit communities in Vancouver/Richmond area (not mention some of the
best Chinese restaurants in the world).

Now just one or two generations removed, these communities are facing the
consequences of the same communist regime they thought they left behind.

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propter_hoc
(2018) - this does not provide a complete picture of the current state of the
market.

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14
I wish they just did not sell to foreign investors. And yes I would be fine if
other countries did the same, why do I need to own a place in 'x' country?
This is, again, capitalism at the expense of the people who actually live in
the region. I am not against immigration and owning property but a person or
organization who are simply buying up property just to make a profit and have
no intention of ever living there should be stopped. Or at the least heavily
taxed to discourage the practice.

~~~
pascalxus
I don't understand, why can't we simply build more cities? If people are so
willing to pay for it, I'm sure there's people who want the jobs. It just
seems like such a waste of opportunity

~~~
bobthepanda
People don’t want a house, they want a specific property within a specific
location. It would be as if you responded to a shortage of iPhones by flooding
the market with Motorola Razrs.

