

WorldCup Probabilistic Simulator - eridal
http://worldcup-simulator.de/

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gus_massa
* * With the original weights for the rules:

\- Simulation without information about already played games:

Brazil 25%, Spain 14%, Argentina 14%, Germany 14%, others <3% each

\- Simulation with information about already played games:

Brazil 29%, Argentina 17%, Germany 16 %, Netherlands 7%, others <5% each

* * I tried to find “better” weights. The only rule that said that Spain was not so good was the SPI (ESPN's Soccer Power Index), Let’s cheat and use ELO=0.5, SPI=1, Home=1 and the others = 0.

\- Simulation without information about already played games:

Brazil 26%, Argentina 15%, Germany 11%, Spain 10%, Chile 4%, others <3% each

\- Simulation with information about already played games:

Brazil 28%, Argentina 19%, Germany 14 %, France 7%, Netherlands 5%, others <4%
each

