
Ask HN: How will the world change after the global coronavirus pandemic? - maremmano
What future scenarios can we hypothesize? how will people behave in everyday life? how will the scenario of travel and consumption change? I am very interested to hear your opinion.
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sumgame
What we are seeing is an unprecedent level of supply and demand shock. What
this means is that there is going to be much lesser spending and businesses
making much lesser money.

If this reflexive loop kicks in people have lesser disposable income and a lot
of people will get unemployed ( we can see the early signs in the hospitality
and airline industry already)

If this continues, then there will be foreclosures. Asset prices are going to
go down. We will enter a recession. If Banks stay alive and liquidity is
pumped into the system by the Fed, then we could see a reversal, if the shock
persists for longer and finding the vaccine takes more time, we could head
towards a depression.

Obviously there are tons of moving parts and there is no way to predict the
future, but its likely that we will have a recession. There is a low
probability that this will head to a depression because the Fed has been
printing loads of money, but if this stops working, they have no more tools in
their arsenal to revive the economy.

