
IIHS: Model S has higher collision claim frequencies than comparable luxury cars - otalp
http://www.iihs.org/iihs/sr/statusreport/article/52/4/4
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Someone1234
This isn't great news for Tesla. This 30 second video also recently surfaced
where someone reproduced the fatal accident involving autopilot from this
week:

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QCF8tVqM3I](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QCF8tVqM3I)

This could also be bad for Tesla if this is what occurred. Interestingly in
this video the chevron lines exist, something people have been claiming would
have averted the accident, also interesting that no warning alarm sounded at
any stage.

~~~
tristanj
Note: This isn't at the same location as last week's accident. Last week's
accident was in Mountain View, CA; while this one looks like it's in Lake
Station, Indiana.

 _Edit: it 's in Chicago not Indiana, see replies_

~~~
jcranmer
No, it's the 90/94 split on the Dan Ryan in Chicago:
[https://www.google.com/maps/@41.7763111,-87.6292446,3a,51.6y...](https://www.google.com/maps/@41.7763111,-87.6292446,3a,51.6y,148.26h,86.84t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sY2xCRS3ka-6fPKv9SGQJuw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656)

~~~
Symbiote
Those lane markins are awful. Ordinary paint, and worn out.

Compare some from the UK.

Bumpy paint, so the wheels vibrate and so they show up in the wet. Red
reflectors, and barriers that would push the car back onto the road rather
than into the bridge support.

[https://goo.gl/maps/TUf1xzLUN5N2](https://goo.gl/maps/TUf1xzLUN5N2)

This is normal, though they're aren't many roads like this within cities, so
there's usually space for a long, grassy strip.

~~~
tptacek
I have never in my entire life been more terrified than when I drove a car
from Edinburgh to Elgin; there is nobody in the world who will ever convince
me that UK roads are safer than those in the US. I don't understand how every
driver in the UK isn't already dead.

~~~
Symbiote
The UK is the 4th, 5th or 3rd safest country in the world for road fatalities,
depending which metric you prefer (per capita, per vehicle, by distance
driven).

Maybe you aren't used to concentrating while driving? (I'm only half joking,
an American friend one made a similar remark when he visited me.)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-r...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-
related_death_rate) (I ignored microstates when counting.)

~~~
tptacek
I was definitely concentrating, and also in a semi-permanent state of yelling
in terror. I don't understand why cars don't just fall off the sides of some
of those roads and down into the steep ravines that appear to be the UK's (or
at least Scotland's) answer to a shoulder.

------
aresant
The day that Musk decided to call his driver-assist system "Autopilot" he lost
my respect as an engineer and my business as a consumer.

It's a great brand for a L4 - L5 system, not for Tesla's realistic
capabilities as a L2 (1) - it sets a dangerous precedent in the consumer's
mind.

Their tepid response to this incident outlining that the driver was not fully
engaged so Tesla is not at fault, is EXACTLY how the system is used by the
average consumer due to the way it's branded and marketed.

(1) [https://www.caranddriver.com/features/path-to-autonomy-
self-...](https://www.caranddriver.com/features/path-to-autonomy-self-driving-
car-levels-0-to-5-explained-feature)

~~~
cycrutchfield
I would say it’s pretty accurate if you are familiar with how plane autopilots
actually work.

~~~
hn_throwaway_99
How many car drivers do you think are familiar with the details of how plane
autopilots really work?

If Tesla had called this something like "lane-assist adaptive cruise control"
I think your average Joe would have had much more realistic expectations
around how the technology actually functions.

~~~
maratd
> If Tesla had called this something like "lane-assist adaptive cruise
> control" I think your average Joe would have had much more realistic
> expectations around how the technology actually functions.

Which would be foolish on their part, since it would equate their system with
that found on other cars. The systems found on other cars are garbage to the
point of being unusable. The system that Tesla has is in a different class.

~~~
rtpg
Is this true? I thought other luxury car brands are now shipping with self
driving of similar capabilities to Tesla at this point.

Or maybe it's just the sensors being the same...

~~~
TAForObvReasons
Luxury car brands ship with a limited feature set that reflects an appropriate
conservatism. For example, they can detect cars in your blind spot and warn
you, and they can put the brakes if someone short stops ahead of you. They
have many of the required sensors but are waiting for the tech to mature

~~~
eclipxe
This is not true. BMW 5 and 7 series have adaptive cruise control and lane
centering. I had a Tesla and now have a 5 series and the 5 series Lane
centering is on par with Tesla’s autopilot. The only thing it lacks in the US
is auto lane change (but it works in other countries).

------
dogma1138
I can’t say much about the accident rate but the loss can be attributed to the
fact that anything more than a scratch on a Tesla is often counted as a total
loss just look at the various Tesla salvage channels on YouTube and you’ll see
how silly it is.

This is what happens when no one can fix your car but Tesla and Tesla doesn’t
repair what most body shops would fix in a day.

~~~
lsc
but the non-tesla electric cars also had more severe (though fewer) claims.
Part of that is probably that an electric car is just plain more expensive
than it's ICE counterpart right now, and my experience is that repair cost of
a vehicle scales with the capital cost of a vehicle.

~~~
Spooky23
Tesla refuses to allow third party repair or parts and has difficulty making
things. So costs are crazy.

A colleague had to have his towed 300 miles and wait forever, for a rear end
fender bender which necessitates a claim as the cost was a few thousand bucks.
With a normal car, he’d probably just lay out of pocket to avoid the insurance
bullshittery.

~~~
FullyFunctional
This doesn't sound true. I had an accident and paid out of pocket at a
licensed body shop. Tesla performs ZERO body work for you.

~~~
akira2501
> Tesla performs ZERO body work for you.

And as such, has a very limited number of "approved" body shops that can
source the parts for repairs.

See:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18MItauAgKo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18MItauAgKo)

------
hpen
"...and it accumulates more miles on average per day than other battery-
powered vehicles, a new HLDI report shows."

Oh, no shit. A really fun to drive car, that can do ~300 miles per charge, is
driven more than the Nissan Leaf @ ~150 MPC

------
tpae
> The higher claim severity for the Tesla Model S may possibly be attributed
> to the battery replacement cost of approximately $16,000.

This seems pretty important metric to me.

> Injury related coverages were also not included due to the small numbers of
> claims associated with the electric vehicles.

I would like to see more of this with the comparison.

------
ggg9990
Tesla is the epitome of Silicon Valley thinking applied to manufacturing.
Tremendous achievements that no one thought possible, but tremendous ugliness
under the hood.

~~~
rohit2412
From what I can see, their achievements are selling costly cars with
manufacturing problems, bland interior to a dedicated fan base at a loss.

I can see why nobody thought it possible, but it isn't tremendous

~~~
ggg9990
Drive the car. It is tremendous.

------
zzzzzzzza
Interesting in light of tesla's claim that autopilot improves safety

~~~
newnewpdro
Tesla's PR department is obviously full of shit.

Edit: Which PR department isn't? Didn't Edward Bernays invent PR as a form of
commercial propaganda for use in times of peace?

~~~
buvanshak
> Tesla's PR department is obviously full of shit.

Elon Musk; Is full of shit.

Little by little more and more people ll come to understand that.

------
dangrossman
I'm not surprised. Tesla's Model S replaced Toyota's Prius as the eco-
conscious high-tech status symbol vehicle to own. Owner surveys show a lot of
people came over to Tesla from ordinary cars rather than from other luxury
cars or muscle cars. Someone coming from a compact hybrid that does 0-60 in 11
seconds, to a huge sports car that does it in 2.5 seconds, is probably more
likely than the average driver to get into an accident.

~~~
greglindahl
I've been to a talk by the Progressive guy with all of their data, and he says
the only strong predictor of accidents is sharp braking. Not acceleration. Do
you have any data points to offer?

~~~
mdorazio
I don't have actual statistics I can share, but work in the automotive
industry and have talked fairly extensively with insurance companies about
data sharing as part of usage based insurance. There are actually multiple
predictors of accident-prone drivers. Sharp braking is one, but so are
frequent lane changes, insufficient following distance, and abrupt speed
increases.

Distracted driving is a bigger issue than all of these, but is very hard to
actually detect as a first-order effect with current cabin sensors.

------
rconti
So, I don't care about the claim severity, as a consumer (unless we're talking
deaths versus scrapes). They're clearly talking about costs, which will drive
premiums, but are certainly related to parts/labor costs and availability,
which is solvable long-term.

Apparently I also don't care about claim FREQUENCY because the article notes
that the frequency difference goes down (but does NOT go away) when
controlling for miles travelled. What? How on earth does 'frequency' not have
miles as a denominator? Okay, fine, they must consider it on a per-day or per-
year basis, but as a consumer, again, I don't care.

As the consumer, I really care about whether passengers fare worse in the
average collision, or are more likely to be in a collision.

Again, parts costs will come into line over the long term. This is a game the
established manufacturers are already good at, Tesla will have to step up to
catch up.

------
datamingle
> On average, Teslas travel three more miles per day than other large luxury
> cars, HLDI found

Would like to know what is 3 miles in percentage terms. Could account for
higher collision claim frequencies.

~~~
marcell
3 x 365 = 1095 extra miles a year. A typical person drives 10,000-15,000 miles
per year (USA).

------
lafar6502
What has changed since Tesla claimed their cars are so much safer that the
insurance costs can be lowered below standard rates?

------
omarforgotpwd
All the comments in this thread seem to be implying that AutoPilot causes
crashes, thus leading to higher insurance claims. I don't know if that's true,
but that's not what this post says.

Correlation does not imply causation. It can be true that Teslas cost more to
insure without Tesla being "at fault" for the discrepancy. When they compared
electric vehicles with their ICE counterparts, they found that "the seven
electric vehicles with exact conventional counterparts had lower claim
frequencies and higher claim severities than their comparison vehicles".
Electric vehicles had less claims, but when there was a claim they tended to
be more severe. I assume this is because if there is damage to the battery
pack replacing that part is extremely expensive. So it's not surprising that
when Teslas crash they can be expensive to fix given that "crash severity"
tends to be higher with electric cars, and that Tesla is a small luxury car
maker.

The other thing you have to think about is selection bias. All the groups
you're sampling are not equal. Because Tesla's are known for being extremely
fast, they might tend to attract people who want to... drive their car fast.
To make a scientific comparison you'd want to randomly assign people to a
Tesla or Non-Tesla to get a comparable sample population.

The other thing they mention is that "Teslas also are on the road more than
comparable large luxury cars. On average, Teslas travel three more miles per
day than other large luxury cars, HLDI found." Obviously, if a car drives
three times as much as another car it's going to be roughly three times as
likely to crash given a consistent probability of collision per mile, right?
Since Teslas don't need gas, the more miles you drive the more money you save
-- and the more financial sense they make. Therefore it's not surprising that
Tesla owners tend to drive their cars much more as the financial incentives
would tend to favor people who drive more -- especially with free unlimited
supercharging in early Model S and X. Even someone who might not have driven a
lot before will be more likely to drive more if the price of doing so is
reduced -- that's just the basic law of demand. Plus, if you had a Tesla
wouldn't you want to drive it all the time? People are leaving their Bolt in
the garage while they drive their Telas three times as much as comparable
luxury cars, and yet what we take away from the data is "AutoPilot is causing
crashes".

I know this won't make a difference in how the media and public perceive this,
and this line of thinking will just be seen as a defense of Tesla, but I don't
think that higher claim frequencies for Model S means Tesla has necessarily
done anything wrong, just on a purely statistical basis.

~~~
Fins
I find it hard to believe that people who can afford a Tesla are _that_
concerned about the price of gas.

~~~
omarforgotpwd
They're probably less concerned about the cost of driving on average, but
knowing that something costs less does tend to make you do it more all other
things being equal.

~~~
Fins
If that extra driving averages to only 3 miles a day it might as well be
explained by people in SFBA (Tesla's major market as I understand) just not
being able to afford to live within a reasonable commuting distance.

------
yeukhon
I prefer battery-tested tech than something so shiny with such high risks. I
hypothesize riding a horse is safer than driving a Telsa.

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koolba
> Under collision and property damage liability coverages, the seven electric
> vehicles with exact conventional counterparts had lower claim frequencies
> and higher claim severities than their comparison vehicles.

I bet the higher frequency of claims is either because people who buy
electrics are worse drivers or simply more litigious. Probably both.

~~~
lsc
>I bet the higher frequency of claims is either because people who buy
electrics are worse drivers or simply more litigious. Probably both.

I think you should re-read what you are quoting. My reading is that the
electric cars that were not made by Tesla had fewer claims than their ICE
counterparts.

~~~
koolba
Indeed. I misread it as “higher” on both. In that case it’d be the reverse,
with electric drivers being statistical better drivers.

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MentallyRetired
What's up with the hatchet job? Is that normal for IIHS?

