
West’s incompetent response to pandemic will hasten the power-shift to the east - pseudolus
https://www.economist.com/open-future/2020/04/20/by-invitation-kishore-mahbubani
======
aivisol
> Today the quality of governance in East Asia sets the global standard. The
> leaders who turned their countries around, such as Deng Xiaoping in China
> and Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore, planted the seeds of knowledge,
> internationalism and order in their societies.

Am I reading The Economist or Pravda?

~~~
perpetualpatzer
You're reading the opinion section of The Economist, in which the featured
opinion is that of outside contributor, Kishore Mabubani, a former Singoporean
diplomat.

~~~
indemnity
Singapore is probably going to have a worse time of it than most, in the post-
globalisation future we’re hurtling towards.

------
scoot_718
And what about China's incompetent response?

~~~
monkeydreams
That was mentioned in the article - it was described as disastrous, at least
initially. Now? China has a firmer grasp on the problem of COVID-19 and are
battling it on many fronts, including the geopolitical.

Western governments (edit:those listed in the article such as the US and
European powers), on the other hand, have been beset by decades of political
parties attacking the legitimacy and foundations of the political system in
order to score points against their rivals. This has led to a widespread
unease and distrust among their voters, and a subsequent weakening of their
governmental controls and regulations.

I don't agree with all the points raised in this piece, and I suspect that
this weakness of the West is part of a longer cycle. But, for now, there is
some points raised in this article that we should ponder.

~~~
rumanator
> China has a firmer grasp on the problem of COVID-19

Between covering up the fact that their death rate was a few orders of
magnitude higher and deciding to intentionally leaving out infected but
asymptomatic cases from their infection statistics while boasting that new
cases occurred due to infected foreigners entering the country , it's patently
obvious that the Chinese regime does not and never had a good grasp on the
problem.

And if that does not convince you, let's not forget that the Chinese regime's
talking heads tried to pin the blame of their outbreak on Italy.

~~~
vosper
> it's patently obvious that the Chinese regime does not and never had a good
> grasp on the problem.

I think they had a good grasp on the problem, but the problem to them was (as
it always is for China’s leadership) firstly about maintaining control, and at
best secondarily about dealing with Covid.

~~~
furyg3
Let’s also not forget that it began there in the first place, and there is a
serious probability that this particular disease could have been completely
avoided in humans.

People have been saying, for years, that the ‘wet markets’ of exotic animals
are breeding grounds for inter-species diseases. The Chinese government did
not listen to these complaints for many reasons, including the fact that
‘medicinal remedies’ made from exotic animals are a status symbol for upper-
class Chinese.

------
vosper
> The crisis highlights the contrast between the competent responses of East
> Asian governments (notably China, South Korea and Singapore) and the
> incompetent responses of Western governments (such as Italy, Spain, France,
> Britain and America). The far lower death rates suffered by East Asian
> countries is a lesson to all. They reflect not just medical capabilities,
> but also the quality of governance and the cultural confidence of their
> societies.

Ooh, can I do some cherry-picking, too?

How about the incompetent response of the Japanese government, where it's
gotten so bad that healthcare workers warned their healthcare system may
collapse [0]

Singapore's having their own Covid resurgence [1], related to those underpaid
and exploited migrant workers, crammed into dormitories, which they'd like
everyone to continue to pretend don't exist (in Singapore the streets clean
themselves).

In the Phillipines Duterte has used the pandemic to seize even more power for
himself, heading in the direction of becoming a fully-fledged military
dictator. [2]

For Western governments, how about the lauded [3] response of New Zealand [4]
and, perhaps to a lesser extent, Australia?

This is an article that started with a thesis (China will use its power!),
cherry-picks a tiny amount of supporting evidence to tie in with Covid (so
topical right now), then wanders off down the well-trodden path of speculating
about future Chinese influence (despite the initial mentions of Singapore and
South Korea, this is article actually only about China) and the downfall of
the West.

[0] [https://www.bbc.com/news/world-
asia-52336388](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52336388)

[1]
[https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-new-...](https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-new-
cases-1426-foreign-workers-dormitory-citizen-pr-moh-12658250)

[2] [https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/20/opinions/duterte-
covid-19...](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/20/opinions/duterte-
covid-19-philippines-repression-hartung/index.html)

[3]
[https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/jacinda...](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/jacinda-
ardern-new-zealand-leadership-coronavirus/610237/)

[4] Disclosure: I'm a Kiwi, and think our government have done a reasonably
good job responding to the pandemic. I also think foreign press lavishes far
too much praise our on government and Prime Minister.

~~~
ShorsHammer
NZ and Aus wasn't in flu season already, this has a big impact on outcomes, we
got lucky in that respect with forewarning.

Singapore's resurgence is pretty unavoidable, there's simply nowhere else for
these foreign workers to go. Despite the case numbers deaths are remarkably
low, basically all of these dorms are getting tested leading to resurgence in
case numbers, it's tens of thousands of people.

So despite all the socio-political criticisms in your post how about
addressing the quoted comment?

They are far lower death rates, it's undeniable. Singapore has had 11 deaths.
Malaysia 90. South Korea and Japan ~230.

~~~
squiggleblaz
Since a coronavirus isn't an influenza virus, I don't see what it matters
whether Australia or New Zealand were in flu season. Moreover, it's now flu
season and people are tiring of the social distancing measures and new cases
per day are extremely low.

Australians and New Zealanders can rightly be annoyed that the responses were
not excellent - but the responses were basically adequate. They were just
enough and a little bit late - compared to europe which was too little too
late.

If diverse countries like Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia and Vietnam were
capable of mounting competent responses (during the Taiwanese/South Korean flu
season), there is no reason to say that Australia/New Zealand were somehow
incapable. It's far more likely that we were "lucky" because our timezone and
flight time was too far apart to become part of the conversations that lead to
social suicide, so our leaders made basically competent responses.

~~~
flohofwoe
One important goal of the "flatten the curve" actions in Germany was to delay
the CORVID-19 outbreak enough so that it will be separated from the flu season
(which apparently was also unusually bad this year)

This article is from 20-Feb-2020:

[https://www.dw.com/en/massive-flu-wave-grips-
germany/a-52445...](https://www.dw.com/en/massive-flu-wave-grips-
germany/a-52445643)

------
commandlinefan
"A policeman's job is only easy in a police state" \-- Touch of Evil

------
Bayart
>Few will forget that in the same week that the Trump administration banned
travel from Europe (without any advance notice), the Chinese government sent
medical equipment including masks, ventilators, protective suits and doctors
to Italy and Spain. This is why the Group of Seven countries resisted pressure
by America to call covid-19 the “Wuhan virus” in a communique after a virtual
meeting in March.

No, we ignored Trump's spin because it's on the nose nonsense and we've got
better things to do than turning everything into a tool for political gain.

Nobody's blind regarding China's « help », and we'd rather do without.

------
tradewarsonlyn
Is someone taking bets on whether this will happen? I would happily wager real
$ against this wildly cultivated opinion. Autocratic, authoritarian regimes
will never command global acceptance over democracy. I have that much belief
in humanity.

~~~
pasabagi
I'm also pretty optimistic about democracy. The problem with autocracies is
that while any given dictator can be dynamic and capable, and the
administration can work well for a while, autocratic regimes tend to stagnate
because there are no checks and balances to stop corruption and nepotism.

Also, democracy reduces the amount of violence necessary to keep a state going
in tough times. While violence itself isn't a problem in strictly pragmatic
terms, it does create a sort of moral malaise that leads to a dispirited,
cynical and corrupt governmental culture, that ultimately leads to regime
instability.

People often forget that autocracy is what democracy replaced - and the
autocracies were replaced not just because they were bad in a moral sense, but
that they were also badly run, dysfunctional, and uncompetitive.

------
aaron695
While Asia is hobbled by lockdowns for years the West has allowed it to go
rampant and will just pop out the other end.

Best case the West has also wiped out a generation of healthcare and pensions
to pay.

The West is also more nationalised than ever with a somewhat unified anti-
China stance.

The West has become more powerful relative to the East.

~~~
squiggleblaz
Herd immunity from this coronavirus remains an unproven hypothesis, and most
people claim it will only last 6-24 months. Is there any reason to believe we
get can it through 60-80% of our society within 12 months?

The death rate of people over 65 is still quite low. To say the West has wiped
out a generation of healthcare and pensions is just incredible. Most of these
retired people are still around.

Wishful thinking.

~~~
MarkusQ
> Is there any reason to believe we get can it through 60-80% of our society
> within 12 months?

Exponential growth. Suppose the doubling time is 10 days (it's probably less)
and there is one person loose who has it (there are probably more). One year
would be 35 doublings (actually, slightly more) which would be enough time for
2^35 = 34 billion people to get it. Since this is well over four times the
present world population, it's not unreasonable to suppose 60-80% of the
people will have had it by then.

