
Why I’m not backing you on Kickstarter - jheitzeb
http://www.danshapiro.com/blog/2012/11/this-is-why-im-not-backing-you-on-kickstarter/
======
jonnathanson
I don't necessarily agree with a lot of this post. But I will admit that
Kickstarter has a serious problem on its hands, namely, a growing dichotomy
between its emergent user behavior (preordering) and its intended user
behavior (crowdfunding).

The site has gone to great lengths in recent months to stamp out the former --
even going so far as to announce "We're not a store," and to impose a lot of
restrictions on project listings.

IMO, these moves have only exacerbated the problem at hand. Now you've got a
presumptive majority of users who still treat Kickstarter like a preordering
site, but who get even fewer details about what they think they're preodering.
Case in point: lots of blog posts like this one, which claim they grok the
idea that they're not preordering finished goods, but nevertheless complain
that they're not preordering finished goods. There's a very clear disconnect
between intellectual admission ("I realize I may not actually get this item")
and emotional expectation ("Where the f--- is my item???"). This is a recipe
for cognitive dissonance, and it leaves a lot of very vocal users frustrated.
Some of those users may be right, and others may be off base -- but they are
Kickstarter's problem, regardless.

Quite frankly, I don't think there's a fantastic solution to this problem. But
project categorization/tiering seems like at least a halfway decent step.
Kickstarter should ask its listers to choose which stage of the idea they're
in: early concept, prototype, pre-sale, etc. (I'm sure they can come up with
better names for these categories). And that stage would be made very clear to
the users/backers from the get go.

I don't think Kickstarter can continue to grow, or even last, without
preordering. That just seems to be the dominant use case most people have for
the site. It's here to stay. If Kickstarter shies away from it, some other
crowdfunding company will claim the space and leave Kickstarter in the dust.
Rather than trying to stamp it out, Kickstarter should embrace it -- but at
the same time, take steps to differentiate it from true kickstarting.

~~~
jebblue
Your post was thoughtful and articulate. I thought I'd check the site as
though I were considering starting a project there. First I checked the
Guidelines:

<http://www.kickstarter.com/help/guidelines>

Part of the first Guideline says:

"A project will eventually be completed, and something will be produced by it.
A project is not open-ended. Starting a business, for example, does not
qualify as a project."

If I were starting a project it seems clear that the expectation is that I
deliver something.

I'm not clear if that agrees with your view or not I guess I'm not clear what
the expectation of crowdsourcing is. Maybe it's just a buzzword.

~~~
saraid216
Two things:

1) A project is more clearly defined as something that the creators _intend_
an eventual completion. Or, perhaps better, a project is something that has a
hard ship date. A project is not necessarily successful: that is, it may fail
to make that ship date. If it fails, it may fail in such a way that it _never_
completes. That is the worst case scenario: your money went into a black hole.

2) There's a difference between crowdsourcing and crowdfunding. Crowdsourcing
is a riff off "outsourcing"; it's using "the crowd" to accomplish tasks.
Crowdfunding is a specific instance of this, in which the task is "give me
money".

------
ljd
I have a hard time taking opinion pieces like this blog seriously. The
verbiage is so strongly connected to his disdain that I can't hear anything
through the noise.

If you want to be hypercritical of companies using Kickstarter for the first
time, you should try to provide real feedback. Mindless comments such as the
following are as unhelpful as tips get:

"Pro tip: if I, who know your business as well as I know the feeding habits of
the Springbok Antelope, can come up with more risks than you can, you’re not
doing it right"

Here, let's try to write some generic, but probably more helpful feedback:

When first filling out the Risks and Challenges section your first inclination
will probably be to prove how there are no risks and no challenges. Instead of
taking this path, be open about what you feel the risks are and your plan for
minimizing them. Talk about the challenges you currently are facing and how
you've solved other challenges in the past. If I'm going to sail out to sea
with you on this voyage you'll be more likely to convince me you know how to
handle a storm than to tell me there won't be any storms at all.

If you are thinking about doing a kickstarter campaign and you come across
this blog it's not going to help you tackle any of the issues that he
outlines. At best, it's just the author posturing with, "If your campaign
doesn't meet my guidelines then I'll use social signaling to embarrass your
company."

I would rather see high quality writing about how to be successful in raising
money and delivering on Kickstarter.

~~~
raganwald
_When first filling out the Risks and Challenges section your first
inclination will probably be to prove how there are no risks and no
challenges. Instead of taking this path, be open about what you feel the risks
are and your plan for minimizing them. Talk about the challenges you currently
are facing and how you've solved other challenges in the past. If I'm going to
sail out to sea with you on this voyage you'll be more likely to convince me
you know how to handle a storm than to tell me there won't be any storms at
all._

What you suggest is another, different, and also valuable blog post. His
choice:

    
    
      Pro tip: if I, who know your business as well as I know the
      feeding habits of the Springbok Antelope, can come up with
      more risks than you can, you’re not doing it right.
    

It's disdainful, sure, and not to my taste, but it's memorable and cuts right
to the issue. He's trying to be George Carlin. There's some value overall in a
reasoned argument, and some value overall in a certain amount of hip hectoring
if the author can piggyback wisdom on entertainment.

~~~
ljd
I get that's his play. I still want to discourage people from writing this
way. George Carlin's cutting humor was profound. It's my humble opinion that
unless you intend to write as well as George Carlin, you should be less
adversarial in your comments of others.

~~~
danshapiro
Author here. I appreciate both your perspectives; not all writing can be for
everyone, of course. As it happens I'm in the middle of writing a very long
essay in a much more restrained style and decided to kick out this as a fun
blog post to take a break. It's nice to see some people are enjoying it. At
the same time I understand why you may not, as well.

Truthfully, the whole post is really just two points: think hard about your
business, then be honest with what you know. But sometimes writing about
antelopes is fun too.

~~~
wsul
One of the exciting things about building companies now is that everyone has a
voice. We appreciate the candid critique.

~~~
wsul
Dan, we'd love your support. We're sizing for small to extra large on this
first run with a couple fits/micro-sizes, including one specifically for the
Governator and the tall/lean, which are typically overlooked by apparel
companies.

~~~
danshapiro
I think the updates you've made to your page are exemplary. I've updated my
blog post with a note at the end, and bought some shirts.

------
azundo
I'd like to see Kickstarter cap the maximum amount a project can raise at some
(low) multiple of the minimum goal. I think projects get into a lot of trouble
when they raise 6x or 100x more than they expected. That traction is exciting
so people dream big and make promises when the cash is rolling in before
they've even executed on the core idea.

If a project estimates correctly, they should be able to 'kickstart' once the
funding goal has been met. After that they can set up their own sales and
marketing channels to sell to follow-on customers after the original
Kickstarter backers get their rewards. To me this matches the original intent
of Kickstarter.

Obviously capping funding amounts cuts into Kickstarter's short-term gains. In
the long run however I think it would minimize the risk of a high-profile
project (or several) failing to deliver and sinking their whole model.

~~~
EwanToo
I agree 100%.

If anything, an enforced cap will increase the exclusivity of an offer, and
reduce the number of people who hold off until the last day to back a project
- they're the people who are really preordering a product name, not backing an
idea.

~~~
wsul
I think an enforced cap and the exclusivity of an offer is a great idea, I'd
love to use that in the future.

------
wsul
Hey all, I started the company formerly known as From Holden (we're renaming),
and wrote all the copy for the Kickstarter campaign. I posted a reply on Dan's
blog, would love to answer any other questions or hear any other thoughts
there or here!

[http://www.danshapiro.com/blog/2012/11/this-is-why-im-not-
ba...](http://www.danshapiro.com/blog/2012/11/this-is-why-im-not-backing-you-
on-kickstarter/#comment-711853394)

~~~
tg3
In that post, your response to the risks section is that "there is literally
no chance we're going to fail at delivering incredibly crafted shirts to all
our backers." That is so completely disconnected from the world of reality
that it shows a tremendous lack of foresight. Read literally any prospectus
for companies much more proven and stable than yours and you'll see a litany
of legitimate risks surrounding the business. Yours is no different. As a
company who has, by definition, never done this before, your risks are quite
high.

What if the fabric from your supplier is inconsistent in quality, do you have
another supplier? What if your estimates are off, and labor+fabric costs more
than $8, will your margins allow you to deliver? What if every other large
manufacturer has discovered that the cheaper labor available overseas more
than offsets the increased shipping costs? What if your manufacturer has a
work stoppage, do you have another manufacturer you can turn to of high
quality? What if their factory burns down? What if their quality is
inconsistent? What if they don't deliver finished goods on time? What if your
fabric gets damaged en route, do you have insurance?

I know next to nothing about clothing manufacturing, and I just listed more
risks than you did. The risks section is not intended to be an exercise in
braggadocio.

~~~
wsul
Trey, I'm not saying there are no risks -- there are. I promise there will be
hiccups along the way, anything you mentioned could happen. As an
entrepreneur, I work as hard as I can to mitigate these risks by having
multiple mills, sewing contractors, etc. but shit WILL happen. What I meant is
that, no matter what happens, I'm going to make and deliver high quality
shirts. Small hiccups will happen, but the only thing that makes us fail is me
giving up, and that isn't going to happen.

~~~
smacktoward
_shit WILL happen._

The reason why the question about risks is asked is because one way you can
tell a person with experience from a person without is that the person with
experience can speak about risks in more detail than "shit happens." They can
enumerate specific risks, make general predictions about which risks are more
likely to hit them than others, and estimate the costs that would be incurred
should such a hit happen. This indicates that the person has been around the
block a few times and knows how to differentiate between large, real,
business-killing risks and more theoretical ones.

The opposite approach is to make bold statements like "no matter what happens,
I'm going to make and deliver high quality shirts" with an obligatory
disclaimer like "small hiccups will happen" tacked on afterwards. This
communicates that you're aware that risks exist, but not what exactly they
are, or which ones are the most dangerous to your business. Which sends the
message that you _haven't_ been around the block a few times. To be frank, it
sounds like amateur hour.

It doesn't surprise me that a potential backer would prefer the first type of
response over the second. I would too.

~~~
wsul
I posted an updated Risks section and will be continuing to add to it and
edit. Any feedback very welcome!

------
polskibus
Lots of trolling and ranting. I mean seriously, kickstarter is an incubator.
If you don't like it, don't participate. No need to whine about it loud.
Instead of being really constructive in his critique, the author provides
shallow critique.

~~~
duiker101
I agree, the article might not be the best critique ever but I think there is
a need to rise some noise about Kickstarter, not because I hate it or
whatever, but because it made noise and now people are using it in the wrong
way so to educate it's users we must give a strong, clear message of how to
use it. And it should be a message both for founders and backers.

What I get from the article is that this guys had an idea and 24 hours later
they created the Kickstarter. This is partly wrong, what is totally wrong is
people supporting them(please note this is just my opinion) because you can
find everywhere cheap shirts, even good ones. There a huge market about it
what would make you think that some random guy can do better? Just because
they say so? If this would make any money companies would have already adopted
this.

When approaching Kickstarter I think one(with an idea or a prototype) should
make it clear what he wants to achieve without the "I will make the best at
the lowest price" attitude. Remember the users that backing the project it's a
donation with a possible gift and not a preorder. Also you should have thought
about it more than 1 day. The day you realize that you can't maintain your
promises your reputation might end up destroyed.

I think that it's important that we use Kickstarter the correct way because we
risk ruining it, when too many people will realize that they will not get what
they paid for people will not use it any more, resulting a bad reputation for
kickstarter and therefore other projects that might be worth checking.

~~~
wsul
I've been preparing for this Kickstarter campaign for six months. I'm doing it
because I'm truly passionate about fixing a very broken retail/apparel
manufacturing model that hasn't changed much in 50 years. I think there is a
truly better way to make and sell the best men's clothes, and that is why I'm
building this company. Kickstarter happens to be an incredibly efficient way
to gain the resources required to continue down this path.

~~~
intended
Out of curiosity, what were you focusing on during that period? Also whats
your background - retail or IT?

~~~
wsul
My background is in technology. I've built a few software companies. I focused
on understanding the manufacturing process, designing the first line, sourcing
materials, finding partners, working on fit, thinking about how to market the
company in the future, etc. All the things you'd expect. It has been
incredibly fun.

------
jermaink
Oh no, not another 'Why I' article. This is at least the 5th on the frontpage
today. I'm getting tired of these stories... HN starts to feel like being in
Groundhog Day.

------
kamaal
Lets be frank kickstarter sort of really blows up in the face of many VC's and
traditional investors. Watching a project you would never fund get super
successful and go on to do profit especially in order of millions(in case of
Pebble watch) can be very frustrating for a VC/investor.

Its like watching a rebel guy you didn't like and thought will never to well,
go to work for the guy you hate and then both do amazingly well.

Besides this whole model of skipping a VC/investor to go directly to customers
and then make super profits is a disruptive trend for investors.

~~~
timjahn
"Besides this whole model of skipping a VC/investor to go directly to
customers and then make super profits is a disruptive trend for investors."

Having customers pre-order a product and pay directly for it isn't exactly
disruptive.

~~~
wsul
I think Kickstarter's innovation is in building a brand that people/press know
and trust, their design of forcing time constraints, and the ability to add
demand for an offering. My money is that they continue amping up social
features to allow more gamified sharing and the like which will only increase
the attractiveness of their proposition.

~~~
intended
Heh if I could, I would be shorting kick starter stock.

This is like the sales pitches pre-real estate collapse. "The markets have
steadily risen at 5-10% so its safe to take a 4.5-8% variable interest
mortgage!"

Then things go wrong.

I lose my bet if KS can dodge a hit to their reputation, by ensuring that
their system doesn't get gamed or become a target for cons.

Edit: Incidentally the reason VCs and others don't invest in some ideas is
because of ticket size of the initial investment and final ability to knock it
out of the park. (the 9 in 10 fail, but the 10th is Google rule)

So VCs are never going to be worried about losing out on KS projects except
very rarely.

On the other hand, I know that I can create a sales pitch for a vapor ware
product which sounds good enough to at least get some funding, and use that to
create more believable KS pitches.

Speculation of course - I assume that this is something KS has worked on.

------
dutchbrit
To answer your question regarding 'Who', it's William Sulinski. Company is
Shareaholic.

I know, you could find this out too. But if they mention things, they should
mention it properly since it's not clear at all.

I quite like this idea by the way, I just can't back them since I refuse to
get a Credit Card :)

~~~
lerouxb
Then get some other kind of account with a Visa/Mastercard number?

------
jamesmcn
Can someone explain the whole frozen jeans thing? That sounds weirdly awesome.
Particularly in the summer.

------
crusso
While we're on a Kickstarter thread, I have a GREAT idea for a Kickstarter
project. It's really unique and has never been done before.

I'm suggesting right here and now that someone create a Kickstarter project
for a 3D printer. With such a unique and interesting offering, how could such
a project not succeed?

Don't forget to give me credit for the idea when you eventually see it appear
on Kickstarter.

[for the humor impaired, the above is sarcasm]

