
Hyperloop is making progress - coob
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2014-12/19/elon-hyperloop
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tptacek
This evades most of the criticisms of Musk's Hyperloop plan by not being the
Hyperloop that Musk proposed. Specifically, and most importantly, it doesn't
connect SF and LA, and instead chooses a route to fit the budget, instead of
the other way around.

Musk's plan for the SF-LA Hyperloop was almost self-evidently fantastical, so
much so that it's easy to read it as a political tactic to discredit
California's HSR plan (which is also moving forward).

~~~
kbenson
Well, that's fairly hyperbolic. It wasn't near _self-evidently fantastical,_
unless you base that entirely on political willingness.

As for what you thought made it fantastical, I would love to hear a short
list. My last understanding of it was that there wasn't anything specifically
physical or technical that prevented it from being possible (albeit requiring
more real-world testing), and there was at least some effort put into
addressing the implementation details. If there are portions that are actually
impossible rather than just unlikely I would rather know than remain ignorant.

~~~
tptacek
No, it was fantastical. For instance: the cost estimates Musk provided were
premised on advancements in tunnel drilling and elevated track construction
costs that would have revolutionized all of civil engineering, not just
hyperlooping.

~~~
TrevorJ
The cost to build one mile of 6 lane interstate in an urban area is estimated
at 11 million dollars per mile. If you look at the estimated cost for the
hyperloop, it seems to come out at around 25 million per mile. This isn't
outside the realm of possibility at all, just a little more than twice that of
traditional methods.

~~~
tptacek
The hyperloop isn't a 6-lane interstate. It's an elevated track, some of it
tunneled through rock.

~~~
TrevorJ
The point I was making is that considering the huge upside, merely double the
cost of a traditional highway seems like a very reasonable price.

~~~
tptacek
It's not "double the cost". Nobody knows how much it's going to cost, but we
know it costs more than Musk says it does.

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transfire
1\. Don't see the point of economic class vs first class pods when the whole
point is to get you to your destination so fast you won't be in the pod for
very long. Mid-class pods for all makes more sense.

2\. Please don't emulate the airport model and build over priced malls within
a "security zone". A Hyperloop is supposed to get you from point A to point B
quickly. Following the airport model will add two hours to every trip.

~~~
tptacek
The need to follow the airport model is one of the unaccounted-for costs of
the Hyperloop, particularly on travel time. Because of the inevitable
catastrophe implicated in any passenger attack on an 800MPH elevated train, it
will absolutely have TSA-style security.

~~~
kbutler
Why bother with a passenger attack when the whole route is exposed?

Or did you mean "TSA-style security" as completely ineffectual?

~~~
tptacek
This is an incoherent argument, in that TSA-style security delays are just as
likely to be eliminated from air transit as from a "hyperloop". As long as
airports have them, any US "hyperloop" is also going to have security lines.

~~~
kbutler
So yes, TSA-style security theater.

~~~
tptacek
Yes:

[https://www.dropbox.com/s/jzp8htjdwj7htyn/Screenshot%202014-...](https://www.dropbox.com/s/jzp8htjdwj7htyn/Screenshot%202014-12-20%2016.00.12.png?dl=0)

What's your point?

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thrillgore
The Hyperloop remains a well-designed proposal that solves a problem a
Shinkansen/TGV model system solves, only it uses technologies that aren't
proven or evaluated.

Silicon Valley thinking at its finest.

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erikpukinskis
The issue I would most like to see progress on is thermal expansion of the the
tube. The best solution I have heard is slip joints at the stations but if
we're talking miles of slip, I still have a hard time imagining how that would
work.

~~~
lisper
This. Thermal expansion is the show-stopper. Unless and until they solve this
problem (and I don't see any practical solution) everything else is moot.

~~~
TrevorJ
Thermal expansion is also a well known property and something that is dealt
with in buildings and structures all the time. It would be a challenge, I
agree, but I don't think it will be an intractable one.

~~~
lisper
There's 2-3 orders of magnitude difference in the scale of ordinary structures
and the scale of the hyperloop. There may be a solution, but so far AFAICT no
one has actually come up with even a plausible-sounding story. You can't
simply say, well, we've solved the problem for small structures so surely
we'll be able to solve it for larger ones.

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debacle
The hyperloop is an incredible idea. One could travel, theoretically, 400
miles in a little under 5 minutes with reasonable, constant acceleration and
no maximum velocity in a straight line (so, unreasonable). That means I could
make it to NYC in a pinch and be back by dinner.

But I don't think the idea of an air rocket is one that will work. The cost
will be incredibly prohibitive. The concept of a "stop" on the hyperloop seems
to make the solution far more complex, and the cost of a single stop on the
route (assuming in the middle of the trip) is almost 50% additional travel
time.

~~~
deadfall
The article says "800 mph". Meaning it would be around 30 minutes. Not
including accel/decel. No? It takes a flight hour to hour and a half from LA
<> SF.

~~~
debacle
Yes, I was assuming constant acceleration. I mentioned that this was
unrealistic.

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trose
I don't understand why there is so much focus on doing this in California
where they have tons of development and the huge issue of earth quakes. Surely
there's somewhere else that could reap the benefits of fast travel. Off the
top of my head I would suggest doing this through the midwestern states which
are incredibly flat and mostly void of development for hundreds of miles. You
can pay ranchers and farmers for the right to build the support towers on
their land. You'd have to worry about tornados and hail storms though. I'm not
sure how much concern that would be. If this this is all steel and concrete it
should be strong enough right?

~~~
grecy
I think you also need the population density and a population that wants/needs
to travel from A to B regularly to make it viable.

Musk proposed LA->San Fran as a commuter route - i.e. people would take it
both ways 5 days a week.

How many people want/need to zip across the midwest both ways 5 days a week?

~~~
ChuckMcM
And while I could see that as a neat trick (I think Elon was going more for
the comparison to the High Speed Rail boondoggle) it would be much more
interesting if it could do something like Reno/SF or maybe Boise/SF so that
folks could live in a nice place and work in a trendy place. But the whole
notion of 'tasked' cities (living cities vs working cities) is still not well
developed.

~~~
HCIdivision17
This is, perhaps, the most obvious Jetsons-suburb style future we can attain.
It's so alluring and outlandish. I tend to work in plants, but I end up
commuting just to stay away from the soul crushing industry. (Or soul-crushing
industry, depending...) To be able to live in a nice garden village and then
take a 40 minute ride out of state to my plant would be an _utter joy_.

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jokoon
> At some point, Hyperloop Transportation Technologies will likely have to
> shift from this work-when-you-can-but-don't-expect-money model to something
> a bit more conventional with, you know, employees.

People need to understand that money is not the goal there, the goal is to
improve transport standards. I'm sure the best CEO and investors understand
that money is just an abstract measure, you can't dismiss money, so you must
insert money in your strategy, but it's just to make it compatible with the
current economic model. People in companies work not to say "look at my
paycheck" but rather "look at what I made".

The goal is to make something better. Who cares if the business model is shaky
or out of the box or unconventional, the goal is keeping research and
improvement makings going. Nobody likes to be an employees, but I don't see
everyone knowing enough engineering and having the initiative to design some
new technology like that.

~~~
vinkelhake
> People in companies work not to say "look at my paycheck" but rather "look
> at what I made".

People also work in order to, you know, pay bills and put food on the table.

~~~
fludlight
These aren't mutually exclusive when the labor market is sufficiently hot, as
it is right now for engineers of most specialties. The SpaceX guys are making
less than they could at boring Boeing, but that still comes out to a
respectable sum.

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pjungwir
> nearly all of them have day jobs at companies like Boeing, NASA, Yahoo!,
> Airbus, SpaceX, and Salesforce.

> A lot of the work is being done by 25 UCLA students.

Huh? So at least 25% of the group are students, but "nearly all" are employed
by name-brand companies?

~~~
trose
Maybe it's 25 students + 100 working professionals?

~~~
pjungwir
I thought so too, but then there is also this line:

> At some point, Hyperloop Transportation Technologies will likely have to
> shift from this work-when-you-can-but-don't-expect-money model to something
> a bit more conventional with, you know, employees.

So no one is actually full time.

I'm thrilled to see people working on this, but the article seems like a mess.

~~~
bostonpete
The "nearly all of them have day jobs" seems to clearly refer to the 100
engineers mentioned earlier in the paragraph. I think trose's description of
them as working professionals is probably correct.

The 25 students would not be considered engineers -- in fact, it doesn't even
sound like they're studying to be engineers.

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niche
Hyperloop should be a freight system before a human system; makes everyone
happy; tis the season!

Also, tube transport in rivers would be nice...

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pinaceae
awesome.

so commuting from the east bay to palo alto or SF will take longer than travel
to LA.

instead of extending BART around the bay, full circle and across in more
places, let's invest billions in hyperloop.

~~~
ianbicking
There's nothing exclusive about the two. Good systems should be self-
justifying.

But if you want decent travel times the current BART can't provide them. You'd
need something like Personal Rapid Transit to get good trip times at the
intra-urban scale. But the same argument you are making here - envy of
something that doesn't even exist - is why we keep getting the same transit
systems that are hard to grow because they don't provide enough benefit to
enough people.

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mrfusion
Is anyone else bothered by the idea of being enclosed in a tube with no
possible way out for hundreds of miles?

I guess it's no worse than an airplane but for some reason it makes me feel
claustrophobic?

Perhaps there's a way to add an escape hatch every mile or five?

~~~
lando2319
From the original Alpha Document

4.5.3. Capsule Stranded in Tube "If a capsule were somehow to become stranded,
capsules ahead would continue their journeys to the destination unaffected.
Capsules behind the stranded one would be automatically instructed to deploy
their emergency mechanical braking systems. Once all capsules behind the
stranded capsule had been safely brought to rest, capsules would drive
themselves to safety using small onboard electric motors to power deployed
wheels. "

[http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/hyperloop_alpha-201...](http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/hyperloop_alpha-20130812.pdf)

~~~
jeffwass
That doesn't answer mrfusion's question about being in a stranded capsule for
100's of miles before the nearest exit or escape hatch.

How long does it take that electric motor to drive the stranded capsule 100's
of miles to safety? With the stranded passengers stuck in a small capsule with
no bathroom facilities or other amenities.

It's be first thing I thought about when the hyperloop plans were first
revealed.

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Animats
Not LA <-> Vegas again. An LA <-> Vegas monorail was proposed in the 1950s. A
maglev was proposed in the 1990s. All so morons can go to Vegas on weekends to
push the buttons on slot machines.

Maybe they can talk Google into funding a 1 mile link between Google HQ and
Google's private airport, Moffett Field.

~~~
tptacek
Las Vegas is the 38th largest economy in the US, and the 30th largest
population center. The economy of LV is larger than that of NOLA, of SLC, of
OKC, of Memphis, and of RTP. It's an easy lowbrow dismissal to talk about slot
machines, but an LA-LV line probably makes as much sense (cost-adjusted) as
SF-LA.

One point that's easy to miss is that big-city smaller-city pairings can be
uniquely economically productive. For instance, an actually-functional HSR
between Chicago and STL would allow companies to easily set up satellite
offices on either side of the line, taking advantage of the lower cost of
living on the smaller side and the larger market and commercial network on the
larger side.

~~~
seanflyon
> It's an easy lowbrow dismissal to talk about slot machines

According to Wikipedia "The primary drivers of the Las Vegas economy are
tourism, gaming and conventions, which in turn feed the retail and restaurant
industries."

So people traveling to LV to gamble is a big part of what makes it the 38th
largest economy.

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mrfusion
I've always thought a good enough high speed transport is a scheduled flight
that leaves every hour on the hour and you can buy tickets right before the
flight.

~~~
patcon
As i understand it, transporting humans via air is largely infeasible without
fossil fuels. It think the main benefit of a hyperloop is that it seems
possible to stick with it as we make the energy switch

EDIT: pretty convenient that it would benefit from batteries and solar, huh?
;)

~~~
visakanv
I'm a big Elon Musk fan and I think one of the best things he's got going for
him is marketing acumen. I think of the Hyperloop as fundamentally a marketing
story- doesn't matter whether it works or not, it gets the story out that the
person running Tesla/SpaceX is some sort of whiz. Very well played IMHO

