
[video] Why you shouldn’t trust successful people’s advice - FabianBeiner
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1k7jeQQdqPA
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Udo
I saw a documentary about the company behind Minecraft, and when they
interviewed the owner about what kind of advice he would give to a game
developer starting out, he replied: "don't listen to advice". I became an
instant fan.

When I was running my startup about 15 years ago, I totally subscribed to the
"never give up" mantras, and other myths about success. I read everything
there was to know about the titans of the software industry, and how many of
them managed to become successful after stretches of adversity.

This caused me to become very unreasonable and eventually drove the company
into bankruptcy. I ended up with a lot of debt that I never really recovered
from. Had I instead tried to connect to people who had failed before, I might
have learned things that are actually valuable, such as what the warning signs
of impending doom are, how to judge your prospects realistically, and when not
to put your personal fortune on the line.

Instead, in a delusional rush to compare myself with highly successful people,
I ignored how even in adversity _they_ had a lot of things going for them that
I and my company simply never had in the first place.

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kqr
I've always found the story about the British bomber airplanes during world
war two to be a powerful illustration of this. When the bomber airplanes
returned from Germany, some were quite badly shot up. They were riled with
bullet holes in the tail and wings. In the interest of ensuring more
successful bombing runs, the air force naturally wanted to put more armour on
these parts that were always so badly shot up.

...but that's not going to do any good. Airplanes that are shot in the tail
quite obviously are able to complete their mission and return home, since
you're able to observe them.

The airplanes that had bullet holes all over their cockpit never returned.
This is where the extra armour is needed.

~~~
nickik
That a similar story with helmets in WW1. After they introduced helmets the
amount of people with head wounds skyrocketed. So they wanted to remove
helmets again.

~~~
Vaskivo
There's a a theory that says the increased feeling of safety makes us act more
recklessly.

~~~
loco5niner
I think the point of the story is that wearing a helmet makes you more likely
to be not-dead when shot in the head (thus increasing the number of head
wounds).

~~~
nickik
Mostly getting a bunch of stones on your head, not bullets, but basically
correct.

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Lanari
Don't trust unsuccessful people too, they always assume that what they did was
wrong and the opposite is right.

I know a lot of successful people who did the opposite of what others did, and
both of them succeed.

~~~
agumonkey
Depends, if that person keeps trying (different strategies, not failing the
same way), it's a lesson in patience and courage.

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Htsthbjig
I know lots of successful people.

IMHO You should not trust successful people advice more than unsuccessful
people in general, but TRUST WHAT THEY DO.

I remember when I was young(16 or so) and wanted to learn from the best men
with the girls. There were men that were really great at dating the most
gorgeous women.

I approached them and asked. What they told me was generic and non sense. But
I started going out with them and doing what they did and man, what a change!.
I got to be as good as them or better(I am naturally athletic and tall but
before I met them I was average with women, I discovered for example that
being smart and intelligent(geek) could be the most attractive thing ever for
a women, but the smartest people use to be unattractive to women because they
don't know how ).

I discovered that most people good with women were "naturals", they did not
learn it, but for some other reasons they had acquired the abilities that made
them great.

They can't teach anything because they are not really conscious of what makes
them different. For them, it is completely natural, the way it should be.

The same happens in business. These people has a completely different mindset
from the rest of the world but for them the world is that way. They are not
conscious and can't teach you.

The way to learn is to live with them, not to do what they say, but do what
they do.

~~~
charlesism
I don't see the connection with the video, which was a nice explanation of
"survival bias." Not sure I agree that your love life has much to do with
business, either.

~~~
rpedela
I think he is saying that people who are naturally good at something
(successful) don't really know why they are good and therefore cannot teach
others (give advice).

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pella
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias)

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childifchaos
I think this is extremely important. We all want answers and want to know how
to do something and the Internet puts that information at our finger tips, the
problem is that it's 99% outright bad advice.

Watching some talks from Elon Musk lately trying to find "the secret" and it's
amazing how little secrets they seem to be from people that aren't trying to
sell you some kinda info product or brand in the long run.

~~~
mesozoic
Usually it seems the "secret" comes down to be lucky many times in a row. From
what I've seen this is many times the only thing that all successful
entrepreneurs have in common.

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CuriouslyC
In my experience, the people you should look to for advice are the ones that
succeeded despite lots of disadvantages, particularly those people who have
succeeded repeatedly in very different areas.

Often the people who succeed most spectacularly are either very gifted or
lucky. It is pretty rare for someone to be gifted/lucky in many different
areas.

~~~
childifchaos
Absolutely, always find the outliners and see how they did it.

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austinjp
As others have pointed out, perhaps it's the less-successful who offer the
valuable lessons. Fortunately some of their stories are available, and make
interesting reading:

[http://autopsy.io/](http://autopsy.io/)

[https://hn.algolia.com/?query=post%20mortem&sort=byDate&pref...](https://hn.algolia.com/?query=post%20mortem&sort=byDate&prefix&page=0&dateRange=all&type=story)

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kelukelugames
Never take dating advice from taller, better looking men.

~~~
hitekker
This is an interesting way to put survivorship bias into perspective. At least
for normal looking fellows.

~~~
stuxnet79
It really is. I believe I have been doing this for the past couple of months.
Thanks for the insight.

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csomar
There are two issues at play here (completely my opinion):

1\. The first is why people follow religion. People look for security even if
it's just an illusion. That's why they read and watch these stories.

2\. We don't know what the rich people (or successful) exactly did to get
there. Maybe they did fraud. Maybe they did tax evasion. Maybe they laundered
money. Maybe they ripped some customers or over-charged them. No successful
person is going to tell you that especially if it's a black-hat shit.

------
hitekker
Reminds me of:

[http://www.businessinsider.com/ben-horowitz-columbia-
graduat...](http://www.businessinsider.com/ben-horowitz-columbia-graduation-
speech-dont-follow-your-passion-2015-5)

Key quote (paraphrasing)

"Is it that they love doing what they're doing, or that they love being
successful?"

