
Why It Might Be Time to Rethink the Rules of Parole - ryan_j_naughton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-it-might-be-time-to-rethink-the-rules-of-parole/
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ScottBurson
Also I think we should stop making it a requirement of parole that the convict
admit to the crime of which they have been convicted.

I certainly understand why parole boards have required these admissions. If
someone has committed a crime but will take no responsibility for it, that
certainly does not bode well for their future behavior.

The problem is that the justice system is not perfect, and occasionally
convicts an innocent person. It's not right to demand that someone admit to a
crime they actually didn't commit, and to deny them parole until they do.

Accordingly I submit that the only consideration for parole should be the
convict's behavior while incarcerated.

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thatswrong0
> The problem is that the justice system is not perfect, and occasionally
> convicts an innocent person.

Occasionally? Given the 4% rate of false conviction for death penalty
defendents
([http://www.pnas.org/content/111/20/7230.abstract](http://www.pnas.org/content/111/20/7230.abstract))
and the fact that 97% percent of criminal cases dealt with in the U.S. don't
even go to trial, it's far more than occasionally. Often. Quite often.

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thaumasiotes
Without disagreeing, consider the following thought experiment:

The rate of conviction in Hypothetica is 100% for all crimes. If you're
charged, you get convicted.

What percentage of the convicted were convicted falsely?

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wanderingstan
On a related note, I was surprised to learn that there is NO parole for
federal crimes. It was eliminated under Reagan in 1984 as part of "getting
tough on crime".

[http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_parole_in_the_United_...](http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_parole_in_the_United_States)

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drivingmenuts
Changing the parole system is going to be a tough sell to politicians ("it's
always safe to be tougher on criminals"), law enforcement ("if you let them
out, they'll do it again"), the right wing ("burning them alive is too good
for them"), business ("we build prison five _cough_ hundred-thousand dolla!
incarcerate them long time") and victims (maybe the only people with the right
to say yay or nay).

Which pretty much leaves only the left of center and if the last elections are
any indicator, we'll be lucky not to get declared criminal by all of the
above.

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gizmo686
You also have over 1% of the adult population in prison (far over 1% in
certain demographics). These people cannot vote (which is its own problem),
however they have friends and relatives who can.

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roycoding
Bayes Impact (YC S14) is/was working on a project related to this, using risk
models to help predict recidivism.

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trhway
how about a risk model that given the evidence predicts/concludes guilty or
not. I wonder whether any trial lawyers running something like this.

