
WHO says coronavirus death rate is 3.4% globally, higher than previously thought - onetimemanytime
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html
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eveningcoffee
This rate is Case Fatality Rate (CFR) - that is total deaths / total
infections. Due to the rapid growth of infections this still is not the most
accurate prediction.

If the delay between getting infected and dying is taken into account then the
rate becomes 4-4.5%.

You can read more about the discussion on this topic here
[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-
death-...](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/)

------
viraptor
I think this number should really be accompanied by a split by age. See
[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-
se...](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-
demographics/) for example:

    
    
        80+ years old - 14.8%
        ...
        60-69 years old - 3.6%
        ...
        10-19 years old - 0.2%
    

The average across all population gives an interesting point for the virus
spread and various statistics. It doesn't really represent a risk for a given
person, which is what a common person is likely interested in.

~~~
eveningcoffee
So you get the virus and you will be fine but you will infect your grand
parents and kill them. Or you infect your old professor, go worker, your
friend who just had heart or lung issues and kill them too.

Is not about personal risk, it is about global risk.

~~~
onetimemanytime
I said in another thread...obviously a lot people in the 70's and 80's die
anyway. How do we calculate cause of death in that case? If, say, 15% of 85+
yo people die anyway a year, will it matter if they died from regular flu or
from this?

~~~
eveningcoffee
I think it matters if they have now higher likelihood to die (it looks like
surviving flu is more likely than covid-19) and if they do so in large numbers
overwhelming the healthcare system (so also other people have higher
likelihood to die).

~~~
onetimemanytime
Maybe I read it here or in an article, but quarantines might ensure that not
everyone gets it at the same time. So even if we are bound to get it, it pays
to get it in stages

~~~
eveningcoffee
I agree.

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neilwilson
I’m really surprised that WHO isn’t publishing the percentage of
hospitalisations that die.

That’s the only way you’re going to get an accurate denominator with a
confirmed diagnosis and which has a sufficiently standard filter to be
compared directly to seasonal flu.

Then we’ll genuinely know how dangerous this virus is compared to flu.

If anybody has seen this stat please link to it. I haven’t been able to find
it, yet it is available for flu.

~~~
onetimemanytime
>> _In comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those
infected, he said._

Probably this is it? Unless it was apples to apples, maybe he would not have
said so?

~~~
DarthGhandi
Given that 50 million catch the flu in the US each year would you say 1 in 6
people actually get tested for it or it's an estimation based on years of
data.

I'd be incredibly wary of anyone claiming to know how many have been infected
by a novel virus only discovered 3 months ago.

You simply can't estimate that with current data.

Not to mention the heavily tourist dependent countries in Asia that are
willfully ignoring testing and updating the media on statistics.

The 4th biggest country on Earth which has a large number of tourists for
Chinese New Year has reported 2 confirmed cases as of today. Tad doubtful.

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covidanon
Coronavirus looks like it might give American millennials everything they were
hoping to get from Bernie.

A virus which for young people just means they stay inside for a couple weeks,
while simultaneously triggering a massive transfer of wealth from rich old
people to younger people and the government (inheritance, taxes) , frees up
substantial amounts of housing, reduces the social security deficit and
replaces years or decades of medical care costs with a trivial temporary
spike.

This virus is looking like a dream scenario for left-wing / liberal ideologies
and people who have been craving 'Creative Destruction' of the current system.
While there is an initial emotional response that it feels bad to see the
upside in some elderly people losing the last few years of their life,
ethically it seems no different or maybe preferable to losing years of labor
to taxation to accomplish the same outcomes.

~~~
krapp
This isn't 4chan. Troll accounts aren't welcome here.

