
Is 99% a reasonable probability? - nopinsight
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/06/is-99-a-reasonable-probability/#more-18522
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PaulHoule
I have thought a lot about confidence scores for search and classification,
particularly, returning a probability score instead of an arbitrary number.

One big problem is that if you try to bolt a probability estimator onto a
conventional search engine you get a maximum probability of 0.7 or so. It
would be game changing if we could tune this up to 0.95, but current systems
are never confident enough.

