
UK government releases scientific evidence supporting Covid-19 response - helsinkiandrew
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/coronavirus-covid-19-scientific-evidence-supporting-the-uk-government-response
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jpxw
I don’t think I’ve ever felt as proud of my university - Imperial - than right
now. Their research is making a big difference in the actions government is
taking, and it could save many thousands of lives.

~~~
zenlot
If you read/watch/listen to Peak Prosperity, Imperial pretty much copy/pasted
everything what was said before by them, plus added some charts which everyone
can understand. Nothing to be proud of to be honest, especially coming from
university.

Link: [https://www.peakprosperity.com/](https://www.peakprosperity.com/)

Edit: for downvoters, would be happy to hear your thoughts. Especially let me
know if you have followed Peak Prosperity info since January and if you read
Imperial report.

~~~
tpfour
With so much noise it's understandable that people are dismissing information
from less known third-party sources in favor of very well established higher
learning institutions. I am also critical of the way Western governments
handled the situation, but these are two orthogonal concerns. Maybe you could
link to particular information rather than their homepage. I am always willing
to give a fair chance but please help us first :)

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lukasm
Does anyone have access to good data? There is so much fake news that is hard
to trust any articles. If somone is 30 years old, healthy, workout, don't
smoke, what is the probability of hospitalization, serious injury, icu or
death?

Previous link [https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-
college/medicine/s...](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-
college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-
modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)

~~~
rimliu
In Italy there were no deaths for people under 30 so far.

~~~
jpxw
The youngest I’ve heard is a 14y/o in China.

~~~
lukasm
Are we able to know that for sure? What if he died of autoimmune disease, flu
etc. But just happen to have covid19?

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Mvandenbergh
Really interesting to watch the evolution of the advice on Behavioural and
Social interventions. It is absolutely clear from this that the idea of
"flattening the curve" rather than completely suppressing an outbreak was
being seriously considered until very recently. Luckily, this is not something
being pursued anymore and they moved away from it in time but you can
certainly understand the attraction when you consider the consequences of the
almost total shutdown required to suppress.

~~~
haunter
> It is absolutely clear from this that the idea of "flattening the curve"
> rather than completely suppressing an outbreak was being seriously
> considered until very recently

Wait I'm out of the loop. The #FlattenTheCurve campaign is already wrong?

~~~
Mvandenbergh
It's not wrong, necessarily, the issue is that ICU admission rates even in
young people are high enough that you need to flatten the curve an incredible
amount in order not to overwhelm ICU capacity. (They're not high in absolute
terms, but an arithmetically small change in a small number can have massive
effects)

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helsinkiandrew
This does give me some relief that Boris is taking little or no part in the
important decision making and just rubber stamping what experts agree on.

~~~
jpxw
I think our government is taking some good actions, but I’m concerned that
people aren’t actually complying. Their modelling relies on 75% decrease in
social interaction. I think some enforcement will be needed.

~~~
jonatron
There's no sports, no events, huge numbers working from home, pubs and
restaurants very quiet. Picadilly Circus currently has only a few people
walking about. I think more extreme measures would be counterproductive,
because clearly there's been a massive decrease in social interaction already,
and people are already panicing.

~~~
barry-cotter
Sounds fantastic. Glad most people are doing their part. If only Western
governments were encouraging their citizens to wear masks. I know there aren’t
enough even for healthcare workers but people in vulnerable groups should
really be encouraged to wear makeshift masks. There’s no shortage of tea
towels and if you strap one to you face you’re at 70% effectiveness catching
virus sized particles when surgical masks are just under 90%. Decreasing the
viral load that gets into your lungs decreases the possibility you’ll actually
get infected.

> Professional and Home-Made Face Masks Reduce Exposure to Respiratory
> Infections among the General Population

> Principal Findings

> All types of masks reduced aerosol exposure, relatively stable over time,
> unaffected by duration of wear or type of activity, but with a high degree
> of individual variation. Personal respirators were more efficient than
> surgical masks, which were more efficient than home-made masks. Regardless
> of mask type, children were less well protected. Outward protection (mask
> wearing by a mechanical head) was less effective than inward protection
> (mask wearing by healthy volunteers).

> Conclusions/Significance

> Any type of general mask use is likely to decrease viral exposure and
> infection risk on a population level, in spite of imperfect fit and
> imperfect adherence, personal respirators providing most protection. Masks
> worn by patients may not offer as great a degree of protection against
> aerosol transmission.

[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2440799/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2440799/)

~~~
whatshisface
It might be difficult for governments to admit that they were "lying to you
for your own good." No official is going to want to suffer that embarrassment,
and even though this is an emergency situation the normal laws of
bureaucracies (avoid embarrassment at all costs) still apply.

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dirtyid
There's 100+ undeveloped/underdeveloped countries that Covid is currently
ravaging through. Their response will be the same as the Spanish Flu. They
have no adequate medical authority to test and release numbers for the media
to currently obsess over, but in a few weeks (months?), we're going to get
status on how post herd-immune countries are doing. Their demographic pyramid
skews young, so the numbers might not look as bleak. That said, many countries
are going to have to start seriously considering the unpleasant calculus
between (old) lives and economic cost because it's increasingly obvious we're
not capable of enforcing a proper quarantine.

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ukabwlsbeux
People seem really positive about this, but I don’t see anything here that
seems actionable or materially different from what we’ve seen elsewhere. Can
someone point out why this is noteworthy?

~~~
hardlianotion
It's important because it is political. There have been widespread calls for
government to show it's working, and a really determined campaign to show that
the strategy is ineffective and is the thing of the prime minister. The
document is a chance for the government to try and change some of these
perceptions.

~~~
dustinmoris
Also it is pretty impressive how transaprent the UK prime minister has been in
dealing with this pandemic.

\- 100% scientific driven approach

\- Daily briefings and updates addressed to the public

\- Daily Q&A where the PM addresses questions from the press

\- Publication of all scientific papers and studies conducated in this short
amount of time which are fundamental in decision making

Nobody has a crystal ball to look into the future and therefore nobody can say
if what the UK gov has done so far and when they have done it and how they
have done it was any good or bad, but I rather have a government which takes
such a scientific and transparent approach than anything contrary.

Mistakes can happen regardless which approach one takes, but I rather have a
mistake done based on best scientific effort than through negligence.

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boomboomsubban
This title is a bit confusing. It sounds like this provides evidence showing
that their response was effective, but it is the evidence they used to draw up
their response.

~~~
dustinmoris
It's not misleading if the former is logically impossible and therefore it is
clear that the latter is clearly what is meant.

No single country can at this point in time yet provide any evidence if their
response was effective, because in order to do that you'd need:

\- Be past the pandemic

\- Have other data points of other countries to compare

Both are not true yet.

~~~
boomboomsubban
It is confusing though, my initial reaction was that such evidence should not
exist and I only realized my error after browsing it for a few minutes.

Replacing "supporting" with "provided to draft" would prevent my problem.

~~~
rusk
I agree … it seems like a poor word choice, given nothing can really be
certain at this stage. I think a term like _rationale_ would be more suitable
…

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cm2187
To illustrate why this lockdown really needs to stay as short as possible and
why Trump and Boris are aggressively pushing for a test and anti-viral
alternative, economists are forecasting jobless claims in the US to be in the
2-3m region next week vs 150-200k a normal month.

~~~
vegardx
To put things into perspective, in tiny Norway companies have issued warnings
to 170k, in one week. In six days they received 105k applications for
unemployment benefits.

The government is paying full salary (capped at ~600k) for the first 20 days.
After that you receive either 62,4% of your salary up to 600k, and if you make
less than 300k you receive 80%.

But it's not just Trump and Boris pushing for it. Trials of anti-virals are
pushed heavily by the WHO in all countries.

~~~
cm2187
Not in all countries. In France the gvt and newspapers have been downplaying
the benefits of these anti-viral drugs. They are launching trials but it feels
like it is doing under the pressure of the opinion. They are adament that
lockdowns are the only efficient long term solution.

