
China ‘Is the Only One in the Race’ to Make Electric Buses, Taxis and Trucks - jseliger
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-has-early-lead-on-electric-commercial-vehicles-1543755601
======
chillacy
Just came back from Shenzen, seemed like most of the taxis were electric. You
can tell because they're blue vs the red gas taxis. Another ingenious thing
they do is there's an added fee to ride red taxis, so people avoid them like
they're plague-ridden when they have other options. I thought that was a
brilliant use of taxing externalities, you let customers decide whether paying
the fee is worth it.

~~~
marvin
That type of taxation of externalities is really a no-brainer in the West too,
but there’s just not democratic majority for implementing it. A tragedy.
Tragedy of the commons, really, on a spectacular scale.

A general CO2 tax wouldn’t be hard to implement if we were a dictatorship.

~~~
ctdonath
_A general CO2 tax wouldn’t be hard to implement if we were a dictatorship._

It's ideas like this why Americans are heavily armed. Nobody can explain how a
"co2 tax" would actually do good, yet you implicitly advocate killing people
to enact it.

~~~
adrianN
A CO2 tax would do good because it would reduce demand for goods and services
that cause the release of CO2, proportional to how much they release, while
also providing the funds necessary to clean CO2 from the atmosphere.

Not that hard to explain.

------
SmellyGeekBoy
Even London's black cabs are going electric, thanks to the Chinese. The London
Taxi Company's Chinese owners (Geely) opened a £300m electric taxi factory in
Coventry, UK last year. I'm not sure how many of these are in active service
but I see them driving around all the time (presumably testing) as the factory
is not far from my office.

[https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/22/london-
taxi-...](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/22/london-taxi-company-
opens-300m-electric-black-cab-factory-coventry/)

~~~
Brakenshire
You see them regularly in London, I’d say 5% of taxis have switched or
thereabouts. It only launched in the last year.

~~~
SmellyGeekBoy
That's great to hear, I have to admit it's over a year since I was last in
London.

That said, the odds of getting run over by a black cab were already quite high
so hopefully they're not totally silent. ;)

~~~
Brakenshire
When I picture a black cab I don’t picture it actually moving, their
traditional role is surely to line the streets or sit in traffic with the
engine running, decorating the air with particulates.

~~~
isostatic
Also allow wealthy (usually white male) businessmen to beat the traffic by
clogging bus lanes.

------
paganel
Why don't we bring trolleybuses back? They rock! You don't need polluting
batteries in order to run them, just some copper to put the wires up, and
we've been master of this "technology" for almost a century now. Also, we
should extend or re-introduce the tram network.

~~~
D_Alex
Simply because electric buses are the superior technology right now.

Metro bus services is actually an ideal application for electric vehicles: The
needed range is short, charging facilities can be in one place (depot), stop-
start driving suits the propulsion system, and low noise and no emissions are
a bonus in the highly populated areas.

~~~
Nasrudith
Not to mention infastructutal redundancy - trolleys are a bit worst of both
worlds in that they require roads, tracks, and overhead wires while often
causing manuevering and congestion issues. They are kind of awkward road
sharing wise.

They are a way of dodging the battery expenses but unfortunately have their
own set of issues. If you already have a great cable car infastructure by all
means keep on doing it but they are rare and often more curiosities or
secondary transit components.

~~~
jbay808
Trolleybuses don't need tracks, they just need overhead cables.

We use them in Vancouver.
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_buses_in_Vancouver](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_buses_in_Vancouver)

------
Animats
New Flyer, the US's biggest bus maker, is making battery-electric buses. But
sales are low - 40 to Montreal, 10 to Toronto, 35 to Los Angeles. In
comparison, Shenzhen recently replaced 16,000 of its buses with electrics, all
from BYD.

Shenzhen also replaced all of its cabs with electrics.

~~~
pjc50
Edinburgh invested in electric and hybrid buses, but they turned out not to
have enough power for some of the steeper routes.

London is planning to have "Europe's largest electric bus fleet" next year ..
of 240 buses? [https://www.london.gov.uk/press-releases/mayoral/london-
to-h...](https://www.london.gov.uk/press-releases/mayoral/london-to-have-
europes-largest-electric-bus-fleet)

I'm not sure where Shenzen would manage to _run_ 16,000 buses given that
London's TFL only have 8,500. The streets must be absolutely full of them.

~~~
Lio
It surprises me about the steep hills in Edinburgh. I would have thought that
electric would be well suited to that.

You've got large amounts of torque from the electric motor to deal with the
steep gradient going up and then you get regenerative braking coming down the
other side.

It would be interesting to know the numbers involved.

~~~
dsfyu404ed
Hills, torque, all that crap is a non issue.

City buses, regardless of drive-train type, are limited in their acceleration
first by what passengers will put up with and second by the amount of friction
between the tires and the road. An old clapped out two stroke Detroit can
still leave a stop fast enough to result in the passengers complaining.

------
_Microft
I grant that there's a lack of electric buses and trucks in western countries
but how is a taxi different from a normal car? Build electric cars and you can
have electric taxis?

There are counter examples though. The _Deutsche Post_ , the german postal
service, wanted to electrify their fleet and bought the company _StreetScooter
GmbH_ [0] because there were no other eletric vans available to replace their
_VW Caddy_ s. They scaled up the production to 10000 vans a year in 2017 and a
second factory producing another 10000 vans per year should begin operations
in 2018. They are pretty common in cities and surrounding areas now but less
so in rural areas as they lack the necessary range.

Demand seems to exceed production at the moment, as far as I know they have
quite a number of other potential buyers for these cars.

[0]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/StreetScooter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/StreetScooter)

~~~
chiefalchemist
I'm not sure of the exact details but taxis are different. Think of any big
city taxi - NYC, London, etc. - you've ever gotten into. Bigger. Boxier. More
trunk space, etc.

Now consider GM's plant closing in the USA. Plants are configured to produce
certain vehicles. Volume matters.

Yes, cars and taxis are close, but for a number of reasons probably not as
close as you think.

~~~
kd5bjo
Until recently, the most common vehicle I saw being used as a taxi was a Ford
Crown Victoria -- a large standard sedan with an aftermarket partition between
the front and back seats.

~~~
ema
The taxis I have been driven in in Germany and Spain didn't even have a
partition between the front and back seats. Honestly I would feel weird
sitting in the back of a taxi when the shotgun seat is empty. Must be some
internalized egalitarianism.

~~~
rsynnott
In Ireland, it's normally, or at least common (it's not required) to sit in
the front seat if in a taxi on your own. I think it's similar in some other
countries.

------
tedshroyer
Chattanooga has operated electric buses since the 1990s. I would be surprised
if this wasn't known by many municipalities in the US, but still it hasn't
taken off. Numbers from late 90s indicate that fuel and maintenance costs
would be about 1/4 the cost of diesel(
[https://afdc.energy.gov/files/pdfs/chatt_cs.pdf](https://afdc.energy.gov/files/pdfs/chatt_cs.pdf)).
I guess range has been the problem stopping adoption.

~~~
z2
Buses seemed to me to be a rare case where they are so big and heavy anyway,
that low energy density from a cheap and old-fashioned lead acid battery could
still work. But you're right, I started searching, and found a 2005 US DOT
analysis that said otherwise:
[https://www.transit.dot.gov/sites/fta.dot.gov/files/Electric...](https://www.transit.dot.gov/sites/fta.dot.gov/files/Electric_Drive_Bus_Analysis_0.pdf)

> Consequently, powering a full-size bus would require a battery pack that is
> unacceptably large and heavy, as well as too costly to make a battery-
> electric bus commercially competitive.

~~~
rtkwe
There's only a few places where lead acid batteries have really proven viable
for transportation and it's in forklifts where their weight is a benefit
instead of a detriment and the actual ranges being traveled are extremely
short. Everywhere else they're just way too heavy to get workable ranges at
reasonable weights.

------
benj111
So its interesting to think what will happen when they turn their gaze
outwards. How long will it take Chinese brands to be a force to be reckoned
with?

Yes they might be sniffed at to start with, but that's only the same as
Japanese cars in the 60s, Skoda in the 90s and most recently Kia, but other
manufacturers won't be able to get away with calling them cheap tat for long
(assuming they aren't).

I assume there are more barriers to entry compared to other industries. I know
Europe slaps duties on imported cars but Japan worked around that.

We're all looking at Tesla to bring electric cars to the masses. Should we be
looking at China instead?

~~~
rcMgD2BwE72F
>We're all looking at Tesla to bring electric cars to the masses. Should we be
looking at China instead?

Right now, Tesla consumes more than 60% of the word EV batteries and their
shares is still increasing. I'm sure most of the world's EVs will be Chinese
but the most high-end ones will probably be Teslas (made in Shanghai if need
be). One can draw a parallel with the smartphones market :)

~~~
toine_toine
> Right now, Tesla consumes more than 60% of the world EV batteries

Not sure where you heard that but that is completely false. BYD alone shipped
over 100,000 electric cars (not including buses) in the third quarter
(compared to Tesla's 83,000). Other Chinese car companies BAIC, Rowe, and Geel
all ship over 20k+ plug-ins per quarter.

~~~
benj111
I've heard it. Eg [https://www.inverse.com/article/47731-tesla-gigafactory-
now-...](https://www.inverse.com/article/47731-tesla-gigafactory-now-makes-
more-battery-power-than-all-automakers-combined)

But yeah I'm not sure whether China doesn't report battery construction, or
under reports or what because it sounds suspect to me also.

~~~
rsynnott
> It’s official: Tesla Gigafactory is now the largest annual producer of
> battery power in the automotive world

Official according to who? I suspect that, like much of the less critical
reporting on Tesla, it's just reprinting a press release. In any case, that
doesn't match the headline; it's just claiming it's the single biggest
factory. There's no substantiation of the headline at all, and looking at the
numbers it cannot be true.

~~~
benj111
Well theres a tweet from Tesla which is the original source I guess.

And you may have noticed how the internet gets, when Tesla/Elon says something
that isn't true, so I guess theres some basis to it.

The Tesla fanboyism goes both ways, there are many, many people waiting to
point out they are wrong.

------
jbay808
Recently returned from China. The abundance of electric vehicles of all types
was quite stunning. A lot of them seemed very high quality, too.

------
Uhrheber
I'm glad they do.

I always thought, when 1 Billion Chinese will start to drive cars instead of
bicycles, we're all toast (literally).

It seems, that also the Chinese government knows this, and they're doing the
right thing.

~~~
rch
They know that they'll have an easier time producing batteries and electricity
than gasoline, that's all.

~~~
RidingPegasus
Is the world running out of petrol? Chinese fuel prices are fairly cheap on a
global scale. It has far more to do with public discontent over air quality
than petro-politics.

~~~
rcMgD2BwE72F
We can have cheap oil and still run out of it.

That's what happens when you replace all ICE with EV until you don't have much
oil to extract _economically_.

"The Stone Age didn’t end for lack of stone, and the oil age will end long
before the world runs out of oil." \-- Sheikh Zaki Yamani

------
neonate
[https://outline.com/C7Nddc](https://outline.com/C7Nddc)

~~~
zizee
This is helpful because the article is behind a paywall, but it makes me
curious about the ethical/moral/legal questions that arise from a tool that
seemingly copies other site's content verbatim.

People might get annoyed with publishers like WJS for putting content behind a
paywall, but at least they are trying to find a sustainable model in this
post-web world. Putting up a paywall is a pretty gutsy move given the
abundance of free news options.

~~~
JumpCrisscross
> _it makes me curious about the ethical /moral/legal questions that arise
> from a tool that seemingly copies other site's content verbatim_

As someone who pays for journalism, and appreciates quality journalism over
clickbait, this thoroughly pisses me off. Particularly when you have users
such as this one who seem to single-mindedly comment with Outline links.

~~~
Dylan16807
How do you feel about linking to the "you're leaving facebook" redirect page
that does the same thing, as far as getting access to the content without
paying?

------
Bjorkbat
So, resident of Albuquerque here. Our city embarked on a plan to modernize our
bus system by introducing a bus rapid transit (BRT) system down one of our
busiest streets. This plan included ordering 15 buses from Build Your Dreams
(BYD), a Chinese electric bus manufacturer.

Very recently, the city sent the buses back and demanded a refund after they
failed to meet their advertised miles traveled per charge. They were the only
thing keeping the new BRT route from becoming operational. Everything else was
in place.

Getting them out of the city was a bit of a challenge. One of the buses broke
down shortly after leaving.

China may be the only one in the race, but this experience has convinced me
that it could never lead the race.

~~~
deepVoid
Just to throw something out there. My city here in Ontario Canada has been
running BYD buses for a while. We have been very happy with BYD buses. These
buses are clean and don't emit the black smoke. We have had very positive
experiences.

~~~
flexie
And why would people downvote this comment? Agree or disagree, but downvoting
a completely harmless comment like this is just bad for the conversations
here.

~~~
axaxs
I did. And I don't mean to violate rules or to be insulting, but it set off my
skepticism side. The comment, to me, did not seem to be from someone who
writes English as a first language. The account is two days old, and has made
only two pro-China comments. I mean no offense to the poster, but I'll remain
skeptical for now.

~~~
knolax
Hacker News Guidelines: "Please don't impute astroturfing or shillage. That
degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're worried about it, email
us and we'll look at the data."

[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html)

------
Shivetya
I am all for electric buses, I have stated many times I think the best route
for that would be to Federally mandate replacing all school buses with such.
However while mass transit is very heavily subsidized by the Federal
Government the same is not true about school bus fleets, that should flip.
Fund the school buses and let mass transit pay for itself more. I like EVs in
general and think people should make a choice that fits their lifestyle, I own
a TM3 myself.

Still I will state that for the most this article overlooks the facts that one
of China's big exporters has had heaps of issues with its electric buses.
Recently [1] Albuquerque has had to reject their BYD buses because they don't
make their range claims and overheat in hot weather. This wasn't the only city
to have issues with these buses. so where are the American manufacturers at?
Proterra is the only one I have seen mentioned [2] and recently in Forbes
their name came up.

[1] [https://insideevs.com/albuquerque-reject-and-return-byd-
elec...](https://insideevs.com/albuquerque-reject-and-return-byd-electric-
buses/)

[2]
[https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2018/05/21/ele...](https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2018/05/21/electric-
buses-can-save-americas-local-governments-billions-chinas-showing-us-how-its-
done/#1bd2a3795f78)

~~~
onlyrealcuzzo
Wait. How are school bus fleets funded? You don't have to pay to ride the bus.
Or go to school. So -- from the outside -- it seems like they're completely
funded by tax dollars. Are you saying that's not true? How does it work?

------
elorant
We have electric buses in Greece since the mid 50s. The key difference with
modern era buses is that they don't work with batteries but rely on an
infrastructure of aerial power lines to which they connect with two antennas
protruding from the top of the vehicle. One thing I remember from whenever I
was on board them is how damn slow they move. Occasionally the antennas will
disconnect which means the driver will has to move to the back of the vehicle
and reconnect them. They're still in use as to this day.

Pictures of vehicles from various eras can be seen here:
[https://www.google.com/search?q=%CF%84%CF%81%CF%8C%CE%BB%CE%...](https://www.google.com/search?q=%CF%84%CF%81%CF%8C%CE%BB%CE%B5%CF%8A&&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwib_LXoxIPfAhWClCwKHTytAQcQ_AUIDigB&biw=1680&bih=838)

~~~
castratikron
Only place I've seen those in the US is in San Francisco.

~~~
r_klancer
There are also some trollebuses in Cambridge, Mass, heading west of Harvard
Square toward Watertown. as I understand it, they replaced regular trolleys
some decades ago (1950s?)

Also, Boston's Silver Line buses start their journey in a tunnel, running on
overhead power for several stops, then switch to CNG to complete their route
aboveground.

------
joncrane
I've heard that the environmental impact of building the vehicles (the
batteries in particular) and charging them outweighs the savings in emissions.

Basically batteries use lots of toxic chemicals and require LOTS of energy
during manufacture.

Also isn't most electricity generation in China still based on burning coal?

Have any experts done any analysis to see what environmental benefit this
brings, if any?

~~~
mikeash
They’re still a win even when you use coal to charge. It’s true that
manufacturing is more energy intensive, but the breakeven point is in the
neighborhood of 10-20,000 miles.

~~~
rohit2412
Win compared to old models of gasoline and deisel? probably yes.

Win compared to more efficient modern versions, I'm not sure.

Win compared to hybrids? No way.

~~~
mikeash
I don't think so. The added impact of battery manufacturing is quite small
compared to the impact of manufacturing any vehicle, and that in turn is a
fairly small proportion of the total impact of a vehicle over its lifetime.

Only looking at driving, a Prius emits about 238 grams of CO2 per mile. A
reasonably efficient EV charging from the US's current generation mix emits
about 150 grams/mile. If we assume they'll last 200,000 miles on average,
that's about 17 tonnes more CO2 for the Prius. The EV produces in the
neighborhood of 6 tonnes more CO2 during manufacture compared to a traditional
gas car, and this advantage will be slightly smaller compared to a hybrid.

~~~
rohit2412
I'm not sure why this guy doing a state by state breakdown comes to a
different conclusion than you have.

[https://youtu.be/6RhtiPefVzM](https://youtu.be/6RhtiPefVzM)

I can find you more sources that say the same thing he does.

~~~
mikeash
Do you have something that’s not a video? They’re very time consuming, and in
my experience the odds are small that a video used as a source in an online
discussion is actually worth a damn.

~~~
rohit2412
Look at the map in the video around 9:20

------
NicoJuicy
Well, actually in Belgium there is a coöperation between: VDL Bus Roeselare en
Van Hool .

They are not as big as BYD ofc, but the first one drove around the 1st of
October and i think Belgian/Europe quality > Chinese quality.

Other European alternatives: Finish Linkker OY en Swedish: Volvo Bushet.

PS. They are opening a construction site also in the US.

------
bobjordan
I've been in Shenzhen since 2009. They had electric buses here back then. I'm
pretty certain I saw my first electric taxi over five years ago. Now, they are
common. The ROW is behind China in several areas like this.

------
dev_dull
Has there been any research into safe, electrified highways? I imagine if the
car could cruise while essentially “plugged in” it would dramatically increase
the range and ability of EVs. Challenging task I admit.

~~~
jillesvangurp
Fixing infrastructure is expensive. Just look at the roads and bridges in e.g.
the US or Germany. Just to single out two countries with a mighty car lobby
and crumbling infrastructure.

------
starbeast
Mercedes-Benz are starting to get in on the act with their buses and trucks.

~~~
rcMgD2BwE72F
So they're defying the laws of physics, now? /s

[https://electrek.co/2018/02/21/tesla-semi-defies-laws-
physic...](https://electrek.co/2018/02/21/tesla-semi-defies-laws-physic-
daimlers/)

~~~
rasz
"But for now, the same laws of physics apply in Germany and in California."

He might want to have a talk with VW engineers about that.

------
lolive
Let's consider hydrogen cars are the next big thing. Is it a good move to go
massively towards electric cars? Especially regarding batteries that will have
to be massively replaced in 2 years?

~~~
benj111
Why 2 years?

Batteries last longer than that.

Hydrogen has problems, hydrogen embrittlement, its extremely hard to contain.

Additionally hydrogen's major strength, that it continues the current fill up
at a filling station dynamic* means that it needs to start making gains now,
while there are still petrol stations left, to make the switch to hydrogen.

Hydrogen may well 'win' but I don't think its an open and shut case.

*yes you can generate hydrogen at home. In that situation you basically you have the same tradeoffs as a standard battery

~~~
rcMgD2BwE72F
>Hydrogen may well 'win' but I don't think its an open and shut case.

How? My understanding is that hydrogen is either produced from fossil fuels
(aka non-renewable) or from electrolysis but the latter won't be economical
for many decades AFAIK.

Worst, all things considered, hydrogen cars are still far less efficient that
battery EV: [https://insideevs.com/efficiency-compared-battery-
electric-7...](https://insideevs.com/efficiency-compared-battery-
electric-73-hydrogen-22-ice-13/)

~~~
NeedMoreTea
Orkney are in the early stages of moving to hydrogen from electrolysis for the
ferries. To replace diesel and because they've already reached 100% of power
from renewables so they're actively looking for other fossil uses they can
move to renewable.

Germany has some similar projects creating hydrogen as storage for renewables,
and replacing some diesel trains with hydrogen.

I'm less convinced it will replace petrol, but there is definitely a case for
it replacing many uses of diesel.

------
cauldron
Western media can't see through the veneer, it's true that China has vast
amounts of eletric vehicle, but it's due in part to the tax cut and subsidies
offered, the vehicles are generally of low quality and little effort put in,
some look like ugly plastic toys, no real technology edge across-the-board.

Some cars are just cobbled together to claim subsidies or even defraud the
government, since the subsidies are kinda huge, they can ask sky high prices
for those garbage cars and make staggering amounts of profit. Just search
China EV Subsidy Fraud.

You can say on application side, China is ahead, but on technology side, the
US is years ahead.

~~~
yread
They are used in Europe as well, for example Liverpool has a fleet of BYD
electrical buses

[https://www.masstransitmag.com/home/press-
release/12371883/b...](https://www.masstransitmag.com/home/press-
release/12371883/byd-motors-llc-latest-adl-byd-electric-bus-fleet-arrives-in-
liverpool)

And they don't look that bad.

> ugly plastic toys

You were thinking of Teslas, perhaps? _ducks_

~~~
hadrien01
We had an electric bus in my city for testing purposes made by Yutong (another
Chinese company), and it really looked like plastic: [https://www.ville-rail-
transports.com/wp-content/uploads/Cap...](https://www.ville-rail-
transports.com/wp-
content/uploads/Captured%E2%80%99e%CC%81cran2016-05-10a%CC%8013.12.05-768x465.png)

I have no idea why it was not retained for further tests, and I never tried
it.

~~~
megablast
Who cares if it looks like plastic? Or is plastic?

------
xmly
This is simply because China does not control oil supply, so they do not have
a choice.

~~~
molteanu
Uzbekistan does not control the oil supply either.

~~~
nordsieck
> Uzbekistan does not control the oil supply either.

Uzbekistan does not have ambitions to become a world power.

~~~
bushin
Tamerlan is going to rise from the dead and conquer the world.

------
timwaagh
strange. my city got electric buses last year or so. it could be they are
chinese of course.

------
_Microft
If you run against the paywall, use one of the links posted on Twitter.
Twitter seems to be a referrer that gets through the paywall.

[https://twitter.com/search?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Fart...](https://twitter.com/search?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Fchina-
has-early-lead-on-electric-commercial-vehicles-1543755601)

------
mk926
how can I read this article?

------
purpleidea
Can we add some sort of HN rule that bans sites with paywalls?

~~~
dang
This is in the FAQ at
[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html)
and there's more explanation here:

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10178989](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10178989)

[https://hn.algolia.com/?query=by:dang%20paywall&sort=byDate&...](https://hn.algolia.com/?query=by:dang%20paywall&sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comment&storyText=false&prefix&page=0)

------
thwy12321
Write China scare article -> Get more page clicks.

Are we done with this yet?

