
Jumping to Conclusions: When People Decide Based on Insufficient Information - m3nu
https://effectiviology.com/jumping-to-conclusions/
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lostmsu
This is a severely shortened and retold list of biases from Wikipedia:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases)
under a more clickbaity name.

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hmwhy
I don't think that's a fair judgement.

The Wikipedia page that you linked to lists 192 very specific types of
cognitive bias; even _if_ the information of the article were directly derived
from the Wikipedia page, the author still managed to distilled 192 entries
down to 7 categories.

In addition, the article also has advice on how to avoid jumping to
conclusions, and deal with people who tend to jump to conclusions. Those are
clearly not derived from the link you provided.

Edit: typo (conclusion --> conclusions).

~~~
lostmsu
I did not mean he took that list, and transformed it. But the result is the
same. The categorization offered is pretty arbitrary.

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11thEarlOfMar
Adams has a fun take on many cognitive biases in "Loserthink", which takes on
'unproductive ways of thinking'.

[https://www.amazon.com/Loserthink-Untrained-Brains-
Ruining-A...](https://www.amazon.com/Loserthink-Untrained-Brains-Ruining-
America/dp/0593083520)

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m3nu
My personal favorite:

> Inference-observation confusion. Inference-observation confusion involves
> mistaking something that you inferred using logic, for something that you
> observed.

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sitkack
Experiential idiots vs theoretical idiots.

Some people really can pattern match an order of magnitude better than other
folks, likewise I know folks who can logic better than Spock but they have
huge gaps in creative problem solving. Minds are amazing.

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sitkack
I think we always operate un insufficient information because we are blind to
so much. I don't know which neuroscientist philosopher said this, but that we
use our cognitive powers to defend the non-cognitive decisions we have already
made. We rationalize decisions vs make rational decisions. Same reason we
defend an idea even when we know well we shouldn't.

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styfle
Admittedly, I jumped to conclusions thinking someone finally made the Jump To
Conclusions game from Office Space :D

[https://youtu.be/sDEL4Ty950Q](https://youtu.be/sDEL4Ty950Q)

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jdkee
If only there was some kind of say, mat, that could guide us.

