

Ask HN: Do you want to get better at estimation? - rahimnathwani

The book &#x27;How to measure anything&#x27;[0] says that people can get better at estimation through practice.  Specifically, it says that practice and feedback can help people give better answer to questions like:<p>&quot;Estimate a range for the population of Nevada, with 80% confidence.&quot;<p>The book&#x27;s definition of &#x27;better&#x27; here is that, if asked a large number of questions:<p>- Right about 80% of the time: good calibration<p>- Right much more than 80% of the time: your upper&#x2F;lower bounds are too far apart, i.e. you&#x27;re being too conservative.  e.g. I could estimate the population as being between 0 and 7bn, and I&#x27;d be right, but not usefully right.<p>- Right much less than 80% of the time: too confident, with too narrow ranges.<p>Anyway, if there were a free app to train your calibration, would I be the only one who would use it?<p>I&#x27;m imagining something which presents you with a question, after which you enter an upper and lower bound.  You get asked a few questions and then shown the answers.  After you&#x27;ve answered more than, say, 20 questions, cumulatively (not per session) the app will start to show an indicator about whether you are over-confident, under-confident, or just right.  (The confidence intervals for each question need not be the same.)<p>[0] http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.amazon.com&#x2F;dp&#x2F;0470539399
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gtardini
[https://itunes.apple.com/it/app/updating-
game/id524916372?mt...](https://itunes.apple.com/it/app/updating-
game/id524916372?mt=8) i actually enjoy playing with it and would do it more
if it had a better ui

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rahimnathwani
Thanks! I tried it and it is indeed similar to what I had in mind.

