
Microsoft Reveals the Science Behind Project Natal for Xbox 360 - stakent
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=microsoft-project-natal
======
jselzer
I worked in computer vision for my MSc three years ago, and based on the
state-of-the-art at that time I would be surprised if Natal going to be as
robust as the mass market expects. This kind of thing is notoriously hard and
error-prone. The information coming in from cameras is often so noisy and
incomplete it is very difficult to tell what you are seeing.

When Natal was unveiled at E3, it was having exactly the kind of issues I
expected: <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKtpJW9pg84>

Also the rumour that they have chopped Natal's onboard CPU and moved most of
the processing to the Xbox 360 CPU does not fill me with optimism... Prove me
wrong, Microsoft, prove me wrong!

~~~
memoryfault
I got to play the Natal Ricochet game this summer and I must say that it
worked flawlessly. The only thing that didn't feel natural was the response
time, which they said they were trying to improve.

~~~
jselzer
Maybe, but performing well in controlled press tour and demo environments is
very different than performing well in a million different kinds of living
room and lighting configurations. I'm not saying the tech is going to utterly
fail, but these things typically do present a lot of problems for computer
vision technology.

------
memetichazard
One thing I want to see done is a good swordfighting game. The Wii hasn't
achieved that yet, but some of the videos for Red Steel 2 show promise.
Overall, it seems that even with good motion sensing for swinging the sword,
footwork is still an integral part of the whole experience, which the Wii
can't manage. So in this case, perhaps Project Natal will be the first to
manage it?

Then again, perhaps rather than wait for a game to simulate it, it would be
better to do the real thing instead.

~~~
mrcharles
The problem with that is twofold. First, the Wii doesn't support absolute 3d
positioning. So it can't map an in game object 1:1 with the controller. From
there, it is left looking at your acceleration data and then after the fact
matching it to a predetermined set and playing the move. It becomes a weak
substitute for pressing a button.

The second one is how to handle tactile feedback. Ideally, when your sword
hits another sword, you'd want the player's sword to stop. You might be able
to vibrate as a cue to stop moving, but hard to say how that would work. You
could work around it by having the on-screen character tween back to the real-
life position after a period of time, but it still leaves a lot to be desired.

Long way to go before you can sword fight realistically in a game.

~~~
elblanco
It can with the new add-on thing (the wii motion plus or whatever it's
called).

~~~
mrcharles
Actually, it can't. That adds more precision to the acceleration measurements,
but it still can't do proper absolute positioning.

------
mckilljoy
Natal definitely has potential to revolutionize HCI, but I find it hard to
believe it will help Xbox match the success of the Wii.

I cringe every time I see that video from E3 of that poor woman flailing on
stage, swatting virtual dodge balls. Like Tony Hawk: Ride, when games start
becoming too real, they tend to stop being fun.

Also, consider amputee or wheel-chair bound gamers who don't fit the typical
body shape. Perhaps a small market, but a potential PR nightmare when Iraq
veterans are told they don't have enough points of articulation for Natal.

------
jcnnghm
I wonder if this is a tactical error. While the Wii sells well, there really
isn't a lot of compelling software for it. Often the interface adds little, or
even takes away from gameplay. Perhaps it's just really hard to get right.

disclaimer: I own a Wii

~~~
sparky
I think that the fact that Natal is coming out several years after the 360's
introduction will help. The Wiimote/accelerometer-based-control has been
marketed as an integral part (probably the most recognizable part) of the Wii
experience. In keeping with that, most people don't own Gamecube-style
controllers, so making games that use a more traditional interface is a losing
proposition on the Wii.

In contrast, Natal is a purely optional add-on, and I'm not sure on this but
I'm not sure it will be possible to control non-Natal-enabled games or the
Xbox 360 dashboard without a traditional controller. This way, game developers
can choose the controller paradigm that makes sense for the game, and the
Natal ecosystem can grow organically, rather than have it foisted upon people.
Maybe this is a recipe for languishing and fragmentation, but I can see how
this strategy could work out better for Microsoft than Nintendo's did for
them.

The technology could also be intrinsically much better, who knows?

~~~
Splines
Optional peripherals are a chicken-and-egg problem. Consumers won't buy it if
there are no compelling games for it, and publishers aren't willing to commit
to the peripheral (e.g., controllers not allowed) if there are not enough
consumers that own the peripheral.

Microsoft can address this by stepping up and making Natal a required
accessory for some hit game. The trick then is finding Natal's "killer app",
which we have yet to really see.

It's going to be tough - see Microsoft's FF Steering wheel and the 360 webcam
as evidence. The wheel is confined to racing games and isn't useful for much
more, and the webcam is fun for a few nights but doesn't have a lasting
appeal. The only webcam game I'm aware of was the one shipped by MS, and it's
not very fun (and very tiring on the arms). Both devices are successful in
their own scenarios, but are still niche products (how many games have you
seen that use the camera?).

------
jfarmer
I'm only interested if it comes with a Wolfmother soundtrack.

~~~
jfarmer
Ahem.

<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2qlHoxPioM#t=0m22s>
<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKjV_bWnFCM#t=0m39s>

------
bbsabelli
They taught a computer to perceive the world? Most misleading title ever.

~~~
sparky
What? Maybe this comment was intended for a different story; the title seems
fairly explanatory to me.

------
rbanffy
I think this sums it up pretty well ;-)

<http://image.tutorvista.com/content/heat/water-cycle.jpeg>

