
Ask HN: When an iPhone is released how far off are Apple in the next gen iPhone? - user0x1d
e.g. the iPhone X was released September 12, 2017. At that same day, how much of the next gen iPhone (iPhone XS, released a year later) had Apple already built?
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PragmaticPulp
I've worked in hardware development for a long time, though not for Apple.

The answer can't really be reduced to a single number. At this scale, products
might released to manufacturing somewhere around 3 months prior to the launch
date to allow time for ramp-up. This means the design must be finalized and
tested several months before release to manufacturing.

The majority of hardware and software development doesn't require a complete
prototype that matches that final iPhone form factor. Early internal
development would be performed on large development boards. The original
iPhone prototype board was easily 10x the size of the final iPhone. Photos
available here: [https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/19/18263844/apple-iphone-
pro...](https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/19/18263844/apple-iphone-
prototype-m68-original-development-board-red)

Apple quotes the original iPhone development time as 2.5 years. Later models
are built as an evolution of previous models, so start to finish development
times are likely shorter for newer models. Development likely operates on a
rolling schedule, where each team moves on to their next generation iPhone
work as soon as they finish up most of their work on the upcoming model.

New features like face unlock or thumbprint fingerprint readers are likely
prototyped separately and will only be included in the upcoming iPhone model
if they're sufficiently far along when the design is locked down. If a new
feature is too risky or isn't mature enough, it can be pushed to a future
model, at least until the design is locked. This means that some features
could be in development for many years, across several iPhone generations.

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fraXis
Not sure about now, but when Steve Jobs passed in October 2011, the iPhone 4s
was about to be released, and CNET published an article saying that Steve Jobs
had already been involved with the final design of the iPhone 5, which didn't
launch until September 2012.

[https://www.cnet.com/news/steve-jobs-last-big-project-the-
ne...](https://www.cnet.com/news/steve-jobs-last-big-project-the-next-iphone/)

------
nrp
It’s typical for US based consumer electronics companies building products at
that scale and complexity to have prototypes (Protos) that are form and
function complete but made only partially with proper mass production
processes (e.g. some CNC parts instead of injection molded) at least a year
before launch. Places like Apple would have non-form factor boards, ID
mockups, and some key modules in place at least two years ahead of launch.

Some companies work on much more aggressive schedules though. Samsung for
example often has a bunch of paths running in parallel that they downselect
late on, and Xiaomi will compress a full development cycle into a year for
some products.

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ksec
Depends how you define as "already built".

The design is mostly done if not finish. The only wiggle room are spec and
components. Which can change depending on whether it is single sourced and
market demands. For example as per court Document during Apple Vs Qualcomm
Case, Apple state they required Modem Supply Agreement to be signed and
samples to be ready by no later than July for their next year's iPhone. ( That
of course only applies to new Modem )

Even the Apple Silicon for next year's iPhone are already finished.

Yes, that means they are already working on iPhone _14_.

And that is why the widely reported Rumours of Apple deciding not to ship the
iPhone SE _Plus_ in the last minute by certain famous twitter user or so
called leaker are complete horse shit.

~~~
martinesko36
How do you know this?

~~~
ksec
At the scale of iPhone production. There are just something in Supply Chain
and Production you cant change. Everything works in a tight schedule.

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dogma1138
At least on the SoC level the silicon for the next two chips has been more or
less finalized with the next one most likely being already taped out for
sampling.

Everything thing that Apple outsources has also likely already been finalized
for the next model at the least especially the screen.

Other components that are closely tied to the SoC like the memory have been
selected and contractually procured.

One year before launch PCBs are should already being finalized, fully
assembled phones with some features missing like maybe the next years cameras
also probably exist in labs.

Apple launches phones relatively very shortly after their announcement and
these phones need to be certified around the globe by various agencies a
process that can take months and probably around half a year if not longer,
other certifications like their IP rating also need to be completed well in
advance.

So overall on a yearly cycle the next model is pretty much already ready to
go, and the one after that is quite close to being finalized too.

------
bradknowles
Keep in mind that Apple still has “factories” here in the US for doing small-
scale prototype runs. This also helps them work out the processes that will be
required for manufacturing in the full scale facilities.

They will do prototypes that are as good quality with final fit and finish,
and build maybe a few hundred of them for testing before they give final sign
off to their partners overseas.

And they will do internal prototyping of dozens or hundreds of concepts before
they ever get to that final pre-production run.

Meanwhile, companies like Samsung squirt out 50+ models per year, at a rate of
about one per week, just to see what will stick. And then they test them on
the public, gather the information they need, and then effectively abandon
almost all of those units in place because they have to be ready for the next
model to come out next week.

------
blakesterz
I've always wondered is the iPhone X built Sept. 12th 2017 the exact same
hardware as one built on iPhone X 2018? Is the one built in 2018 better, do
they fix hardware issues on later builds?

~~~
spike021
If I remember correctly, back in the days of the... 4 or 4[s] there was a
change in screws that secured the case/enclosure. IIRC they went from regular
Philips screws to Torx?

Someone else can possibly correct me.

But I'd assume things like these happen during production over time. Probably
nothing significantly different.

~~~
moepstar
They've switched from Philips to Pentalobe screws:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentalobe_security_screw](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentalobe_security_screw)

------
orastor
Check out the MacRumors Buyer's Guide [1]. It has the number of days between
releases for most products.

[1] [https://buyersguide.macrumors.com/](https://buyersguide.macrumors.com/)

------
eknkc
Don't know about Apple but apparently OnePlus closes the next design 9 months
before launch ([https://youtu.be/W-VInHvlrZo](https://youtu.be/W-VInHvlrZo) at
16:40)

------
S_A_P
My uneducated guess- not much other than ideas on paper.

I suspect maybe new chip versions are in progress and maybe have engineering
samples of said chips, and probably a rough idea of the new design. I think
the software probably isn't more than a few months ahead of what will be
released.

as you get closer ~ 180 days from release you probably start seeing a more
complete device ready.

Totally a random guess though. I know movies hint that there are devices 2 and
3 generations ahead floating around in companies...

