
Italy’s Covid-19 deaths are staggering. They may be more preview than anomaly - dmitriy_ko
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/why-is-coronavirus-so-bad-in-italy/2020/03/23/90d306d0-6c85-11ea-a156-0048b62cdb51_story.html
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nabla9
It seems that the US is on the the path of no mitigation approach
[https://neherlab.org/covid19/?%7B%22population%22%3A%7B%22po...](https://neherlab.org/covid19/?%7B%22population%22%3A%7B%22populationServed%22%3A330000000%2C%22country%22%3A%22United%20States%20of%20America%22%2C%22hospitalBeds%22%3A1485000%2C%22ICUBeds%22%3A49499%2C%22suspectedCasesToday%22%3A6638%2C%22importsPerDay%22%3A20%2C%22cases%22%3A%22United%20States%20of%20America%22%7D%2C%22epidemiological%22%3A%7B%22r0%22%3A3.2%2C%22incubationTime%22%3A4%2C%22infectiousPeriod%22%3A3%2C%22lengthHospitalStay%22%3A4%2C%22lengthICUStay%22%3A14%2C%22seasonalForcing%22%3A0.2%2C%22peakMonth%22%3A6%2C%22overflowSeverity%22%3A2%7D%2C%22simulation%22%3A%7B%22simulationTimeRange%22%3A%7B%22tMin%22%3A%222020-02-29T22%3A00%3A00.000Z%22%2C%22tMax%22%3A%222021-04-30T09%3A00%3A00.000Z%22%7D%2C%22numberStochasticRuns%22%3A0%7D%2C%22containment%22%3A%5B%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222020-02-29T22%3A00%3A00.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222020-04-17T04%3A33%3A20.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222020-06-03T11%3A06%3A40.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222020-07-20T17%3A40%3A00.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222020-09-06T00%3A13%3A20.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222020-10-23T06%3A46%3A40.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222020-12-09T13%3A20%3A00.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222021-01-25T19%3A53%3A20.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222021-03-14T02%3A26%3A40.000Z%22%7D%2C%7B%22y%22%3A1%2C%22t%22%3A%222021-04-30T09%3A00%3A00.000Z%22%7D%5D%2C%22current%22%3A%7B%22overall%22%3A%22Custom%22%2C%22population%22%3A%22United%20States%20of%20America%22%2C%22epidemiological%22%3A%22Fast%2FSouth%22%2C%22containment%22%3A%22No%20mitigation%22%7D%7D)

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anonsubmit2671
You don't know what you're talking about. Not even close. The H0 is now well
below 1.0 in the most populous states. Stop fear-mongering. What's happening
is severe cases are being identified but new cases in the future (would've be
two weeks from now) aren't happening at nearly the same rates. The extreme
shutdowns take time to resolve existing cases and for transmission to die out
to almost nothing.

Paraphrasing Bill Gates speaking to Chris Anderson: testing needs to be
comprehensive and enduring shutdowns long enough to work is the prescription
for losing control.

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new_realist
Source for the H0 stats?

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Arnt
Aftenposten (a Norwegian broadsheet) published an opinion piece today arguing
that the high number of deaths is partly due to the multiresistant bacteria
that are endemic to many Italian hospitals.

Abbreviating: Italy has 11k deaths per year due to multiresistent bacteria.
Severe pneumonia often/usually features secondary infections that need
antibiotics. A large wave of pneumonia, particularly a form with which the
hospitals have little experience, offers those multiresistant bacteria a Great
Chance.

~~~
commandlinefan
That would suggest that you actually have a better chance of surviving if you
stay away from the hospital.

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Arnt
Your response assumes that suffering from an ~untreated hospital-worthy
primary disease is better than a treated primary disease plus a difficult
secondary infection.

