
Flattenthecurve (Covid-19 Simulation) - viliam_jobko
https://flatten-the-curve.info/
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gus_massa
Some minor typos

"to fast" -> "too fast"

"Infection Rate" -> "Infection Ratio" ??? I'm not sure about this, but rate is
somewhat related to velocity instead of the % of the population. [Hi form
Argentina!]

Perhaps you should say near the top that the initial numbers are from Germany.
Most people will assume they are from USA, but I think Germany has a better
that ICU/Population than most countries.

I don't understand how the "Duration of Disease" affect the simulation. If I
use a stupid large number like 100 days, the spread of the infection is
delayed, but it must make the peak higher. You should calculate somewhere

total population * infection ratio * duration of disease = 83M * 70% * 7 days

so you need like 40M night in the ICU in the hospital.

People will blame you for using a Gaussian. It is not 100% accurate, but it is
a good enough approximation. The decay is too fast, so it may not fit the
initial and final values very well.

I don't like the "Last infected person" specially because the information says
"end of the bell curve", but the curve goes forever. My guess is that you are
using the day when the number of infected persons in the model is less than 1.

