

Defunct Soviet reconnaissance satellite may hit Earth today - ColinWright
http://www.n2yo.com/?s=12054

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dTal
The site now has an infobox stating "It has been reported that COSMOS 1220 has
reentered the atmospehere [sic]".

No other reports that I can find, but this site[1] seems to have a lot of good
info. Oddly, I get a completely different orbital inclination when I click on
"To see where this object is expected to fall click here." (and, rather
alarmingly, an impact site next to me) The main page and NORAD both agree
however that it's currently still in orbit and currently somewhere around Cape
Horn.

It's hard to tell whether a particular map is using live data or extrapolating
a stable trajectory. At this point I imagine there'd be a large discrepancy.

[1][http://www.satview.org/decay.php](http://www.satview.org/decay.php)

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phest
Here's the forecast:

[http://www.satview.org/spacejunk.php?sat_id=12054U](http://www.satview.org/spacejunk.php?sat_id=12054U)

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joliv
Well, that's the ISS. Here's the link to the ACTUAL decayed satellite (COSMOS
1220):
[http://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=12054](http://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=12054)

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ColinWright
Yes - same satellite number, your link includes the word "satellite," and it
appears that the site defaults to the space station if you do something wrong,
with no indication.

Very helpful.

The site also thinks it's now decayed or re-entered and no longer actually
plots the track. Which is a shame.

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Gravityloss
The link leads to a page that tracks the international space station. As far
as I know, it's not going to come down for years, if not decades...

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lelf
[http://www.satview.org/?sat_id=12054U](http://www.satview.org/?sat_id=12054U)

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hartator
Do we know where is it gonna to crash?

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ChuckMcM
In a general sense, no. However once its orbit decays to the point where
friction with the upper atmosphere can impart a couple of kilonewtons of
delta-v you can then create a probability ellipse and lay that on the globe.
One of the interesting confounding factors is how much "side" force
(perpindicular to the orbit) is created by the various parts sticking out
burning up. A satellite where its appendages burn off cleanly quickly becomes
ballistic and its impact point is fairly tightly constrained, one which still
has onboard propellant will sometimes get a kick in some random direction by
that tank exploding, and satellites which, in their deployment configuration,
are prone to spinning, can be spun by atmospheric re-entry to the point where
they are ripped apart by the centripetal forces generated. But even in that
case, the things that are likely to make it all the way to the ground (like
tungsten fuel tanks) are pretty small and constrained again by the ballistic
footprint from where it started.

From a pure statistics point of view you can say "in the water" and be more
likely correct than incorrect. If that helps.

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daniel-cussen
It's just taking a close-up.

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flibertgibit
Here is the last spot tracked:
[http://www.satflare.com/track.asp?q=12054](http://www.satflare.com/track.asp?q=12054)

~~~
baking
So Saudi Arabia? Edit: Or Europe or the South Pacific depending on which
website and where I click.

