

Is Erdogan going to start a war? - joyofdata

&quot;Turkey downs Syria military jet &#x27;in airspace violation&#x27;&quot;<p>(BBC: http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bbc.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;world-middle-east-26706417)<p>------------------------------------<p>A quick summary from IMDB of the movie &quot;Wag The Dog&quot;:<p>&quot;Shortly before an election, a spin-doctor and a Hollywood producer join efforts to fabricate a war in order to cover up a presidential sex scandal.&quot;<p>(IMDB: http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.imdb.com&#x2F;title&#x2F;tt0120885&#x2F;)<p>------------------------------------<p>&quot;Everyone, it seems, is waiting for compromising sex tapes to emerge, a tawdry phenomenon with a history in Turkish politics, especially at election time. Already, sex tapes supposedly involving high-level officials have been delivered to some news organizations, which, for now, have shown restraint. It is probably only a matter of time before they begin showing up on social media.&quot;<p>(NY Times: http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;02&#x2F;26&#x2F;world&#x2F;europe&#x2F;turks-are-glued-to-a-sensational-drama-this-one-political.html)
======
seanccox
No.

It just wouldn't be politically feasible, and since Turkey is arming the
rebels, there isn't a reason to risk an outright confrontation with the Assad
regime. Not that Turkey wouldn't be capable, but the fallout at home (during a
critical election season) would be significant.

Rumors about sex tapes have floated around for several months, and myself and
others are expecting that the biggest revelations against the PM/AKP will
happen this week, just before the election. I'm not certain that they will be
quite so titillating, however.

Interestingly, tapes revealing obscene levels of corruption haven't done
nearly the level of damage that many expected. So far, the Turkish political
environment has shown an astonishing tolerance for abuses of power. So, there
really isn't any need for a 'Wag the Dog' event.

------
ebiester
Syria isn't in a position where they even could attack. Further, intervention
would be insanely unpopular. I'm thinking that while the region is in a
precarious position, this is less likely to be a flashpoint.

