

The New Nostradamus (2007) - ca98am79
http://www.good.is/post/the-new-nostradamus/

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jsomers
A list of the predictions this guy got right (at the end of the article, and
sprinkled throughout) is near useless when unaccompanied by a list of
everything he got wrong.

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JacobAldridge
Absolutely. Loses credibility by not discussing what he got wrong, and then
calling this a prediction:

"Predicted China’s reclaiming of Hong Kong and the exact manner the handover
would take place, 12 years before it happened."

Britain had a 99 year lease which began in 1898. Predicting it would end in
1997 requires slightly-more-simple math than game theory. I would posit most
people could have predicted that more than 12 years before it happened.

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varjag
It is interesting that the Republican candidate (which he apparently backed)
did not make it through last year despite all voodoo and magic.

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Confusion
As always in such cases, the article is devoid of relevant content that could
actually bring a scientific mind to even remotely consider the possibility
that it might be true. The fundamental questions that always prop up are not
being answered: how many predictions were made and what were the exact
phrasings?

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almost
Exactly, the article is full of impressive sounding stuff but no real
information. So what if random-guy-I've-never-heard-of was impressed by his
predictions, even if said guy does/did work for the CIA.

This would appear to be a very simple matter to settle, show a bunch of
predictions and see how many are correct and how many fail. Even showing a few
of his previous predictions would be interesting, along as you didn't do
something absolutely moronic like cherry pick the ones that turned out to be
correct (but oh what a surprise, the journalist goes and does that exact thing
at the bottom of the article).

So most likely just a bunch of bullshit reported by and incredulous reporter
with no notion of critical thinking.

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yters
I want to know how his technique works. Anyone have links?

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itistoday
This story is straight out of Asimov's Foundation.

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hari_Seldon>

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_%28fictional%29>

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kragen
How far ahead is Bueno de Mesquita forecasting? Two years?

