
'Nobody My Age Can Afford to Stay Here Forever' - cindyceleste
http://www.citylab.com/housing/2015/02/nobody-my-age-can-afford-to-stay-here-forever/385852/
======
srgvd
Single earner with 2 kids living in London on top-1 percentile income here.
60% of that monthly income is going towards rent, taxes and utilities for a
terrace in Zone 4, plus nursery charges for our toddler. My wife can't find a
job here, as she's an ex-journalist, and not a native speaker. No tax
allowances (due to £100k+/y income) and no recurse to public funds (I'm on
Visa, and not an EU citizen) doesn't help either. Apparently, I supposed to be
rich enough for London to be taxable on 50% of my income (effective tax rate:
41%).

Thought of buying a 2bd flat recently, but it'll take us two years of
struggling for every extra penny to just get a mortgage for a very moderate
£250k place.

Income means nothing in this city. Either you got your housing issue settled
15 years ago using 'right to buy' or some other form of government housing
subsidies, or you somehow generate wealth on a side (obviously, not through
the salary, as even £200k/y doesn't seems to be close enough), or you are
going to rent until you loose your source of income (i.e. due to old age) -
and then you'd probably die on a street.

An economy of landlords drawing the money from their own kids. In a few
decades all that accumulated wealth will be probably burned away on anti-
cancer treatments, and then heavily taxed and rented younger generation will
just quit on trying to build a welfare state, throwing their lives away only
to provide a comfort living for older people. Hope our grand-kids will be at
least able to start from blank.

~~~
pjc50
_Single yearner_

With great typo comes great wisdom.

~~~
smoyer
I'd say it might be a Freudian slip (but there's no sex involved) ... a
subconscious thought?

------
CalRobert
It's maddening that property owners can vote against new construction, when
they have a deep conflict of interest. The community may require housing, but
the homeowner has an interest in seeing housing prices go up forever.

It's similar to this ridiculous notion that expensive housing is a good thing.
We give absurd tax breaks to homeowners (why can't I deduct the lost interest
on my rent?), and people lament falling house prices, as though homelessness
were desirable.

Couple all that with building codes that make it illegal to build modest
(small with no parking) housing, and you have a situation where it's
impossible for most people to live in a city.

The above issues don't apply everywhere. London, thankfully, isn't dumb enough
to go for parking minimums, and doesn't offer a tax deduction on mortgage
interest. The general forces at play (landed incumbents voting to screw over
the young) are much the same, though.

~~~
joosters
What? London is full of new housing under construction. Many of the flats will
be tiny as well. The problem (for those trying to live in the city) is that
the houses will be hugely expensive.

For London in particular, the problem is that there are too many people who
want to own a house there. That's why the prices are high. You can't call the
place underdeveloped, it's not a lack of supply due to regulations.

If you want the prices to be lower, you need to reduce the demand.

~~~
irremediable
As I understand it, the problem is that new construction is outstripped by
increasing demand. Hence the increasing prices. I read an article in The
Economist's recent suburbs/cities issue where they said a lot of the problem
lies in how people are prevented from developing the green belt.

~~~
joosters
And rightly so, IMO. At some point you have to accept that you aren't in
London any more, and the green belt is as good a point as any to do this.

Much better than an interminable urban sprawl.

~~~
irremediable
I don't know. I know a few people who live in green belt areas and commute
every day to work in central London. Clearly, in some sense, London doesn't
end there; and it drives up costs for them and many others. At the same time,
I agree that it would be terrible to lose all the countryside vaguely near
London.

Perhaps your top-level comment was right: London has just reached capacity.
But I'm not convinced of that, either; there are plenty of bigger megacities.

------
peteretep
I also left London recently, although I moved due to the weather.

For every 29-year-old graphic designer who moves to Cambridge to buy a family
home, there's a 22-year-old who's just started their career who's willing to
live in a bedsit in Wood Green (as, coincidentally, I did at 17, trying to
break in to the big city).

You're _meant_ to get older, and move out of the city. Circle of (urban) life.
Give it 50 years, and Reading will be a suburb of London, rather than just a
commuter town, CrossRail will have priced out current residents near the
stations, and the city will keep trundling on.

That you see yourself as being one of the "original" residents doesn't give
you some inherent right to below-market-prices in property. That the same
graphic designers and digital media folk who priced families out of Brick Lane
are now feeling the same effects of the gentrification cycle they were part of
is not meant to be a surprise.

I hear Peckham is the up-and-coming part of town at the moment, but there's no
damn way I'd live there, just like I wouldn't have lived in Brixton or Isle of
Dogs 15 years ago. But give it 15 years, and you won't be able to afford in
Peckham, either...

~~~
crdoconnor
>That you see yourself as being one of the "original" residents doesn't give
you some inherent right to below-market-prices in property.

It speaks volumes that you implicitly put the rights of Russian oligarchs and
Arab oil barons to buy property (which they often leave empty) _above_ those
of the working and middle classes of London.

I'll come back to London when they start taxing the wealthy again. Until then
I'll watch from afar as every last drip of culture and life is squeezed out of
every community by rising property prices.

~~~
jstanley
> It speaks volumes that you implicitly put the rights of Russian oligarchs
> and Arab oil barons to buy property (which they often leave empty) above
> those of the working and middle classes of London.

It's not about putting anyone's rights "above" anyone else's -- whoever is
willing to pay the most gets the property, that's all there is to it.

~~~
Zarkonnen
So you are putting the rights of people with more money above those with less
money. It's not a natural law that this is the case, it's still a political
decision.

~~~
crdoconnor
It's many political decisions, including, but not limited to:

* Perpetual QE

* Ultra low taxes on property (council tax)

* Rules that allow foreigners to buy property and not be taxed at all if they declare themselves non-resident.

* Rules that allow tax evaders in foreign countries to stash their wealth here unimpeded.

* Lower taxes on capital (dividends, capital gains) than labour (salaries).

* A reluctance to build social housing in London.

------
darkFunction
I'm leaving London with my girlfriend in a week, to move to Edinburgh. Been
here seven years, both on a good salary, yet we live in an impoverished area
and would never be able to afford to buy a decent place to live even where we
are now. Edinburgh offers us an objectively better standard of living in every
measurable aspect except proximity to Europe. I won't miss London.

~~~
smcl
I lived in Edinburgh for eight years, it's a beautiful place and you'll love
it there. If you're into beer, check out the Blue Blazer - it was my favourite
bar.

~~~
darkFunction
Thanks! I'm pretty familiar with Edinburgh already but haven't seen the Blue
Blazer. I'll check it out.

------
3princip
I spent my childhood in London, moving overseas after graduation - not
financially motivated. With two kids now I often entertain ideas of moving
back, primarily because it really is an amazing city and because of the
opportunities my children would have.

Unfortunately, even with the handsome salaries senior devs earn I cannot see
how I could possibly pay rent and support children.

So I often wonder where all this money is coming from? If a salary many
multiples the average would not cover living costs, who is pushing up prices?
Who is buying these houses?

~~~
chrisseaton
"even with the handsome salaries senior devs earn"

People working at Google etc think they're paid handsomely, but in reality in
London they are paid a fraction compared to what you can get in the financial
sector.

This article and the comments here talk about software developers and graphic
designers, and the reality is there's a whole community above you earning much
more. That's who's able to buy the houses.

~~~
3princip
That's what I suspect, but it's crazy. The average salary in London is £27k, a
senior dev will earn 3x that (I'm guessing). And that's still barely enough to
live comfortably.

I guess that's the point of the campaign in the linked article, but I can't
see how that will change, unless the financial bubble bursts.

~~~
willyt
I think £27k is the UK average or the southeast average? I thought the london
average was closer to £60k? I can't find a source for that though.

~~~
3princip
My mistake, I just looked at wikipedia

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_in_the_United_Kingdom#In...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_in_the_United_Kingdom#Income_distribution_across_UK_regions_2007)

It's 2007 and income distribution is probably per capita rather than average
salary. In that case it's not as extreme as I've implied.

EDIT: A newspaper article from last year claims the UK average is 26k, so
London is probably significantly higher. [http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-
news/uk-average-salary-26500...](http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-
average-salary-26500-figures-3002995)

------
bruceb
Reminds me of this article talking about living in Barcelona and commuting to
London being cheaper than living in London:
[https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/cheaper-to-live-in-
barcelo...](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/cheaper-to-live-in-barcelona-
and-commute-than-rent-in-london-081937638.html)

~~~
SandB0x
The cost of living in London is insane and it is a really interesting thought
experiment. A lot of my friends are moving out of the city and I can't see
myself staying here more than another year or two.

But for some context, West Hampstead is a fairly nice suburb on three
different train and tube lines.

The rent for a one-bed flat is high as they are bid up by couples who are both
earning. You are at a big disadvantage looking on your own. In my experience
there is not much difference between prices for a one or two bed flat.

I think a big problem is the price of national rail transport into London from
the commuter belt. It can easily cost £4,000 a year for a season ticket,
wiping out most of the saving on rent or mortgage payments compared to living
in the city.

~~~
rjaco31
How can rail transport be that expensive? (I'm genuinely asking)

~~~
jon-wood
You'd be even more incredulous if you had to ride on a London bound commuter
train every morning. If you're lucky you'll get to stand in a space large
enough that you don't have to stick your head in someone's armpit. If you're
_incredibly_ lucky, or get on at one of the first stops on the line, you might
even get a seat.

~~~
willyt
London Underground standard 'crush loads' are 4 people per square meter of
floor space for the entire floor area of the train carriage.

~~~
jon-wood
I'm really not sure that's a fact I wanted to know.

------
tensorproduct
I have sort of a different experience. I just moved to London, from Dublin, a
few months ago. I make a good, but not outrageous, salary: pretty close to a
reported average for software developers in London.

I live in a somewhat rundown area, just outside zone 1. The rent is expensive,
but not unmanageable. I have flatmates; the area feels safe; its close enough
to bus and tube lines that getting around is simple. I live fairly frugally
otherwise. I don't at all feel like I can't afford to live in the city, and I
can't imagine having the access to the range and depth of culture and social
events anywhere else.

Maybe it's that I don't have any interest in buying a home, but I feel like so
much of this doesn't apply to me. Maybe it's also that I moved here from
Dublin, another very expensive city, that I don't feel like it's so bad.

~~~
camillomiller
How old are you? You mention that you have flatmates, but not everybody wants
to live in a shared apartment far into their thirties, especially if you would
like to find a place for you and your partner. The problem is that housing in
London looks like a commodity that big sharks trade like many other long-term
investment commodities. Problem is, that's the places where people would
actually like to live that you're trading like it was crude oil barrels. How
is that even barely sustainable for a city in the long term? Not limiting that
by rules of law is a big mistake, but no politicians would be ever called into
account for that.

~~~
tensorproduct
I'm late-twenties/early-thirties. I'm probably just on the old side to still
be perfectly happy to rent a room in a shared apartment. If I find myself in a
long-term relationship then I imagine my priorities will change, but part of
the reason I moved to London was because I thought it would be easier to meet
romantic prospects.

I completely agree that property prices in London are insane, and that the
political system is doing nothing to reign it in (quite the opposite, from my
point of view).

But, from what I've experienced, if you don't want to buy your own property,
then it's perfectly possible to live in London without earning crazy hedge
fund money.

------
Fiahil
Messages are listed here:
[http://www.londonischanging.org/review_billboards](http://www.londonischanging.org/review_billboards)

------
wallflower
My former coworker from across the pond talks about his fellow college grads
who either had the foresight or luck to buy flats in London after graduating
in the late 90's. At the time, I think they were in the $200k range. I shudder
to think of the valuations now.

------
doc_holliday
Well, all bubbles burst and things always change. Give it another financial
crisis, housing crash or big change in UK housing policy (unlikely to happen
before a crash) and London might calm down again.

During the 80s, people couldn't leave the place quick enough.

------
noelwelsh
I can empathise with these messages. We left London after two years when I
moved to start a PhD. I was sad to leave the city but life is so much easier
away from London. We could afford to buy a house when I was studying, and once
I graduated we could afford for me to earn very little while I started a
business. I love the energy of London but, now we have 2 kids, I can't imagine
we could ever afford to move back.

------
jwmoz
London is silly. I'm a contractor on a good rate and I can't afford to live
where I want around Hackney. A 3 bed is ~600k, a 2 bed ~500k.

------
yeureka
This is depressingly true.

I just exchanged contracts on a 2 bed flat in zone 4 that will leave me and my
gf with a 300k debt.

If it wasn't for her stable job in town I would think about going somewhere
else.

And we know that we will probably never be able to upgrade to a bigger place
if prices keep rising at this rate since our income will not increase at the
same speed.

I wonder if London will become a boring rich people playground.

~~~
suvelx
> 2 bed flat in zone 4 that will leave me and my gf with a 300k debt.

Sounds like you got lucky then.

~~~
yeureka
Well, both of us are in our late thirties, earn above average and used up
almost all of our combined savings of the last 10 years to finance the
deposit, taxes and fees to be able to get this mortgage.

------
blowski
I'm 32 and I recently moved out of London when my wife and I had our first
child. Although London has the best of everything, if you can't afford the
best, you often get the worst. At least where we are now (Southend on Sea, in
the Thames estuary) the public services are excellent, it's safe and there's a
strong community.

------
hipaulshi
I love to hear a comparable argument on NYC.

------
ukigumo
Relevant BBC documentary:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2BiuW93bos](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2BiuW93bos)

What would it take to create a a public transparency database mapping real
estate investments to tax evasion tactics?

------
xefer
I'm curious: what is considered "London" in this context? Wikipedia breaks
down the demographics into Inner, Outer and Greater London. In each case the
population has been growing rapidly, so who exactly is moving in and who is
moving away?

~~~
blowski
Few ordinary people live in 'inner London'. That's like the West End, the
City. I imagine most people are moaning about Greater London - Shoreditch
(where the "Silicon Roundabout" is based), Stratford (where the Olympics were,
is part of the wider Tech City initiative), and other trendy neighbourhoods
like Kensington, Camden, Fulham, etc. However, even Outer London (typically
anywhere that's Zone 3-6 on the tube) is starting to become ridiculously
expensive.

------
markokrajnc
Similar situation in Munich! The only one who can afford to live here - with
average salary - is the lucky one whose parents are ready to help with a
donation of 200,000€. For the rest they will take a loan at the bank...

------
joosters
The billboard's impact is weakened by the fact that almost half of the
messages are about people 'planning' to relocate outside of London.

So the situation is bad yet they still haven't left? That kind of implies that
there are still advantages to living there and they haven't outweighed the
disadvantages. Why didn't the billboard creators just stick to people who
_have_ moved away? Their actions would speak louder than the words of those
who may just like to moan!

------
youonlyliveonce
There are plenty of places to relocate.

~~~
CalRobert
"Are there no prisons?" "Plenty of prisons..." "And the Union workhouses."
demanded Scrooge. "Are they still in operation?" "Both very busy, sir..."
"Those who are badly off must go there." "Many can't go there; and many would
rather die." "If they would rather die," said Scrooge, "they had better do it,
and decrease the surplus population."

This isn't JUST about privileged young would-be urbanites having to live a few
stops further from Shoreditch. It's about having a city that isn't just a
playground for the rich but that has a healthy mix of professions and
lifestyles.

~~~
youonlyliveonce
I understand your point but I think that they can go to cheaper localities and
start life there. New places will develop consequently. Many times that's how
new cities form.

