

How to see into the future - webnrrd2k
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/3950604a-33bc-11e4-ba62-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3ClFR6nj1

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webnrrd2k
This isn't a new topic -- prediction markets have been poster here before.
However, this article also discusses some important issues about how people
_fail_ to see into the future. For example, pundits often use their prediction
as a method to present their world view in a way that would "otherwise be
impossible to explain."

Here is a good quote from the article: "This is because our predictions are
about the future only in the most superficial way. They are really
advertisements, conversation pieces, declarations of tribal loyalty – or, as
with Irving Fisher, statements of profound conviction about the logical
structure of the world. As Roger Babson explained, not without sympathy,
Fisher had failed because “he thinks the world is ruled by figures instead of
feelings, or by theories instead of styles”.

This emotional/social aspect is fascinating as it goes against my programmer-
engineer mindset, and it explains a lot about the world. I'd love to hear what
HN has to say about the non-prediction market aspect of this article.

