
NASA images show China pollution clear amid slowdown - rusty__
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51691967
======
hprotagonist
During the plague years, airborne lead levels in Europe fell to 0.

 _When the sickness came, it caused massive social upheaval in the populations
it infected, shutting down entire human industries as ravaged communities went
into damage control.

One of these affected industries, according to historian Alexander More from
Harvard University, was lead mining and smelting by medieval workers – and
thanks to his team's new study, we've got more than historical records to show
that._

[https://www.sciencealert.com/ancient-ice-dating-from-the-
bla...](https://www.sciencealert.com/ancient-ice-dating-from-the-black-death-
challenges-the-idea-of-natural-lead-levels)

~~~
ajross
This was a little different. Lead levels were due to iron _smelting_ \-- the
production of new iron from ore. As the population dropped, it became more
economical to recycle already smelted iron that wasn't being used any more
(because its owners were, y'know, dead). So there was no market for ore for a
few decades.

The pollution levels in that case reflect a rapid change in a single industry
due to what amounts to a buffer overflow, not economic activity per se.

~~~
baybal2
> Lead levels were due to iron smelting

Not only iron, but silver as well

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xbmcuser
I have been saying for a while that the world is going to start getting
shortages for many items we use as China is somewhere in the value chain for
most of the world's production. China can't go back to full production anytime
soon as it has just now got some control of the virus spread and it would need
to stay in this mode for another 1-2 months if it wants to stop the spread.

~~~
solotronics
I sold all my tech stocks last Monday and went all in on SPY puts. This will
impact way more than 2008.

~~~
AnthonyMouse
There are a lot of things that are only produced in China, but how many of
those things can reasonably be produced somewhere else even if they're
currently not? Production issues in China are bad for China, but from an
economic perspective they may even stimulate the countries that production
moves to.

Also, the efficient market hypothesis says that any public information should
already be priced in.

~~~
xbmcuser
It takes years to set up industries. This is not a video game other countries
cant start producing in the next few months it will take time. And how willing
would someone be in investing billions today that might be useful in 1-2 years
but at the same time be aware that once china is full production they might
not be able to compete for price/quality. Even the machines to manufacture
stuff are mostly produced in china

~~~
AnthonyMouse
> It takes years to set up industries.

It takes years to set up industries from scratch in competition with
incumbents. How long does it take when you're the same company, have access to
the people who know how to do it and can spend more resources than normal
because low supply has resulted in high prices?

> And how willing would someone be in investing billions today that might be
> useful in 1-2 years but at the same time be aware that once china is full
> production they might not be able to compete for price/quality. Even the
> machines to manufacture stuff are mostly produced in china

It's events like this that cause reevaluation of supply chain diversity.
Companies don't want this to happen again, so they keep the new facilities
online even when the old ones come back to hedge against it happening again.

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parsimo2010
This reminds me of when all the planes in the USA (and several other
countries) were grounded after 9/11 and there was some evidence that it
affected our temperature variation because there weren't any contrails in the
sky.

[http://www.cnn.com/2002/TECH/science/08/07/contrails.climate...](http://www.cnn.com/2002/TECH/science/08/07/contrails.climate/index.html)

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kitsuac
It's crazy to think, if human civilization were to shut down the earth would
fairly rapidly become much better off. Other species would flourish again,
plants would slowly take over our cities. There'd be less bickering. Hm.

~~~
w-ll
“Many were increasingly of the opinion that they’d all made a big mistake in
coming down from the trees in the first place. And some said that even the
trees had been a bad move, and that no one should ever have left the oceans.”

― Douglas Adams

~~~
saagarjha
Also Douglas Adams:

“In the beginning the Universe was created. This had made many people very
angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move.“

~~~
w-ll
I had that quote on the tip of my tongue, but couldn't fully remember it.

I have the books, and original radio broadcasts, and I love the movie with
Martin Freeman and Mos Def, but my all time fav is the TV series
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hitchhiker%27s_Guide_to_th...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hitchhiker%27s_Guide_to_the_Galaxy_\(TV_series\))

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daxfohl
So much for the argument that cutting pollution would never be possible.

~~~
Damorian
You do realize the economy came to a halt with everybody isolated in
quarentines? I think we have to sacrifice air quality for the sake of progress
for now.

~~~
CountHackulus
Hmmm, survival of the planet vs progress of the economy.

~~~
ars
Killing progress of economy would make the planet much much worse off long
term.

Notice how the richest countries have the cleanest environments - that's not
by happenstance, it's because with basic needs met, people are willing to
spend effort on the environment.

~~~
hnews_account_1
What is this basic bullshit? Who makes China so polluted? Are the Chinese
themselves consuming all the shit they make that makes their cities polluted?
Or is it the rest of the world and China grew by being a massive net exporter?

This is like how the British lamented about the abject poverty in India after
raping the country for hundreds of years. "willing to spend effort on the
environment" my ass. Move the production chains back into those countries.
We'll see how long the air remains clear despite temperate latitudes having
the benefit of better weather systems.

~~~
xupybd
As China gets wealth they will reduce their environmental impact. They will
have the money to do so. It's not blaming them to state that poorer countries
don't have the resources to clean up their production. Progress is required to
develop clean energy, that will require economic activity.

~~~
yibg
There is a pretty strong correlation between wealth and environmental impact.
Wealthier countries are in general not great for the environment.

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gentleman11
I have read that lung diseases are common in China and that in big cities the
smog shortens the average lifespan by 5years. Could better air quality for one
year significantly improve people’s health, or is one year too short?

~~~
qqqwerty
This is entirely speculation, but I think the poor air quality could also
explain/contribute to the differences in COVID-19 mortality. I read somewhere
that smokers were more susceptible to the disease. It seems like populations
with poorer air quality could also be more susceptible.

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almost_usual
Not much changes without a forcing function.

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sturza
second order consequences

