

Hello HN: I am taking the plunge. What do you think? - irahul
http://blog.shopyist.com/let-the-madness-begin-3

======
peteforde
While I'll give a fellow-HN reader my best optimistic wishes, I tend to agree
that this is probably not going to be an out-of-the-park success. I have a
better idea than most just how much work it took to make Shopify what it is
today.

However, we should all be way less dick-ish about encouraging would-be
entrepreneurs regardless of how shallow their ideas appear. It reflects well
on us as a community if we encourage people before we put them down.

After all, how many posts about embracing failure get posted on this site,
right?

~~~
irahul
Thanks Peter. Coming from someone who has been there, it means a lot.

The reasons I am doing it is I am an average developer who doesn't have any
interesting ideas but who wants to foray into entrepreneurship and be his own
boss. I considered a lot of free services which would rely on ads to generate
revenue but I they didn't seem beneficial in terms of monetization.

So, I just thought about a lot of paid service and settled down on something
which has plausible profitability. I am not copying shopify but there sure
would be many features which work in the same way; after all, the ground
premise is the same. I do have some differentiators but it's too early to call
on them.

tl;dr My idea is not original or extra-ordinary; I am an average developer
looking to be my own boss and this suited me the best.

~~~
peteforde
Can I give you some advice?

On one hand, I agree with you that there's always room for another player in
SaaS. If your goals are modest then it's possible that you could reach your
goals. If you manage to line up 5-6 things over two years, that could be a
healthy income.

However, if you really want to create wealth — for yourself and for the world
— then you need to recognize that humans are really bad at identifying
problems that really need solving. You need to pack your virtual bags and go
deep into the country, looking for communities of users that you'd never
consider in your normal every day life.

Start researching industrial organizations, hobby clubs, non-technical groups
of all kinds. Lurk on their forums and pay attention to the problems that they
have. Take notes. Not every problem is a potential business, but there is a
world of opportunity out there.

Go in the opposite direction as everyone else. Recognize that often low-tech
solutions are best. Listen more than you speak. You will find people who
desperately need you to help them, and in doing that you will likely get
further ahead than building a Shopify also-ran.

Good luck.

~~~
petervandijck
I don't think the poster necessarily wants to "change the world", but rather
build something that will be of value and generate income. For which this idea
seems appropriate (although I haven't researched the create-a-shop space or
know much about it).

Your advice is excellent though, but I get the impression the poster is in
Asia? That would make it harder to do real-world research in the US (which is
the market he seems to be going after)?

Sometimes doing the same, just a little different/better, is not such a bad
idea.

------
mhartl
_The implementation isn't going to take much time._

Famous last words. :-)

~~~
irahul
Famous/notorious? May be, yes.

Last words? For sure, no:-).

------
ryanwaggoner
First, I applaud your enthusiasm, and for not responding in kind to some of
the negativity in the comments. While I'm sure that there are a few who are
just negative, most of the people offering criticism probably genuinely want
to help. You'd be wise to listen to them.

And in the spirit of offering advice, here's my two cents: read "Four Steps to
the Epiphany" and actually follow the advice. If that's too much, then just
call or email 100 potential customers, outline your idea, and ask them what
they think. These should be real potential customers who you envision would
really want your service, not friends who once sold a piece of furniture on
Craigslist. I can tell that you've got some emotional attachment to your idea,
so this step might be hard, because you could find after 10 or 20 calls that
things aren't quite the same from your customer's experience as you thought.
But just keep going. By the time you have talked to 100 potential customers,
you'll know exactly what they need, what they don't need, how they find new
products, how to market to them, etc.

Good luck, and please do keep us posted with your progress :)

~~~
irahul
Thanks for the feedback.

Talking to potential customers is surely something I am going to do.

> read "Four Steps to the Epiphany" and actually follow the advice.

First time I heard about this book. Looked at the review and summary at
amazon. Sounds interesting.

------
lrm242
Don't listen to the naysayers and nanny-poos. Be persistent and willing to
learn and you'll shift the odds in your favor. This is a personal journey as
much as anything else, and only you can walk it.

Just the the other day I was talking to a small boutique baker (cakes,
cookies, etc) and she was telling me how confusing it was to try to setup an
online store. I said, "Have you heard of shopify?" and she said, "Uhh, no".
You might find that your hardest part of this is getting to those customers
because they don't know what to look for.

Take care, good luck, and stay strong.

~~~
irahul
> Don't listen to the naysayers and nanny-poos.

I read a lot and I have developed a selective comprehension. For anyone whose
thoughts I admire, I found a lot I disagree with. For example, the recent
debate about "Linus vs C++", there is a lot to disagree in Linus's criticism
of C++, but from where I see, he is making some very valid points and if we
cut the flame, it's an interesting post.

I am trying to apply the same principle here. I am filtering the not-so-polite
words, pondering over what the critic has to say and then making the decision
if I agree or not. For example, I don't agree with "having a formal business
plan". I have considered it and I don't see the usefulness of it.

>You might find that your hardest part of this is getting to those customers
because they don't know what to look for.

This. This is the biggest hurdle I have. I can pull off the technical aspects
of the product and I can work on the SEO and have it featured on Google search
results when you search for "online store". It might not concur exactly with
my plans but atleast I know how to go about it. But I have no damn clue how do
I reach the customer base who needs the service but is ignorant towards it.

I know there are a lot of people who want to have online stores. I know many
of them use shopify and I see that shopify advertises more than 6000 stores.
This puzzles me. 6000 is too small a number for the web. I might sound over
confident but frankly, I am not very concerned about shopify. I am willing to
compete over prices and features. But what concerns me is there is a huge
untapped market segment and I have no ideas how do I capture them.

~~~
lrm242
> But I have no damn clue how do I reach the customer base who needs the
> service but is ignorant towards it.

This is the key issue you need to dig into. Everything else is cursory. Don't
go randomly talk to customers. Don't do market research. Go find a group of
customers that you can effectively reach and then figure out how to find more
of them. Is it single person bakers, like the person I mentioned? If so, what
magazines do they read? Where do they buy their supplies? Do they hang out on
specific online forums? What channels can you use t get your unique message
across to them?

This is trial and error. Finding a niche like this will help you not
differentiate on price, but instead, differentiate on unique features your
niche is interested in.

------
Concours
Before you go further, I suggest you study your market with some market
research, and set a target audience, make some test on that niche, a "there's
enought room for everybody" approach is the wrong one. Good luck

~~~
ryanhuff
Good idea. A niche approach is a great way to start.

The most important thing he has going for him is that he is starting with
little expectations. As he begins to execute in the market, he can be
incredibly flexible to attack opportunities that reveal themselves. The trick
is to learn through testing as quickly as possible, rather than swing for the
fences on an idea that is half baked.

~~~
irahul
Thanks for your time. I am keeping my options open for now. FWIW the service
is largely going to remain same irrespective of what you are selling.

That's how I start building. I am considering some niches viz. cartoonists
selling merchandise, authors selling digital goods. I am talking to a couple
of potential customers about why they aren't doing it already.

------
jeffepp
I applaud anyone willing to quit their job to follow their own passions. Does
this guarantee success? Of course not.

However, do not underestimate the value of truly knowing that you control your
own destiny and do not have to 'grind it out' at some desk for the next 30
years.

FWIW, I believe that if you hard worker & are a kick-ass programmer you can
make up for a lot of supposed 'deficiencies' i.e.: market analysis, planning
and product development.

Good Luck!

~~~
irahul
Thanks.

Just checked your baby (zferral dot com) - looks good.

> a lot of supposed 'deficiencies' i.e.: market analysis, planning and product
> development.

Some of them are deficiencies viz. "no ideas how to market my product to
people who need the service but aren't using it" and some of them are by
choice. Eg: I don't believe doing market analysis of potential customers would
give me an edge. Shopify has 6000 active stores and I would say even a
constrained market analysis would come up with a number much, much bigger than
this.

------
kneath
I think you should probably work a bit more on why your service is going to be
better than your competitors. More than one competitor existing isn't really a
great business plan.

Imagine if Pepsi's marketing campaign revolved around "Because Pepsi isn't
Coke."

~~~
irahul
> service is going to be better than your competitors.

To each his own, but I am not going to do this. Internally yes, but I am not
going to compare to the competitors externally.

From what I know, comparing to the competitor is generally a bad idea. Current
users of the service take any comparison or criticism personally and all it
does is drive potential customers away.

For the new customers, I am willing to believe in the intelligence of the
human race. Prospective customers are smart enough to do their research before
settling on a service. My job would be to make the features lucid and clear
and highlight the differentiators. As I already mentioned, I do have some
differentiators in mind.

------
akadien
Big whoop. This kind of post pops up every few days. No business plan. No
market analysis. No real idea of who will use your shopping service and why.
No description of value, benefits, and features. Reads like wishful thinking
and dreams of grandeur. All you have is an idea and a domain name.

~~~
irahul
> No business plan.

I am not going to have one ever:-). On a more serious note, I am not selling
out or going to ask for capital ever. The only person that needs to be
convinced of the business value is me and I am convinced.

> No market analysis.

And that would affect me how? If there is an existing market for it, I am
tapping into it. There is an existing market; I didn't feel the need to do
research to prove that people are interested in selling things online and
e-commerce is hard and if you are a merchant, you are more interested in
selling thing than taking the pains of implementing it.

If there isn't an existing market for it(hypothetically speaking), I know
people want to sell things. If they aren't selling it online already, it's
only because the services aren't up to the mark, and that would be a good
thing for me.

> No real idea of who will use your shopping service and why.

No, there isn't a real idea. The idea will change every week with the
implementation and keep on changing until something clicks. But the ground
rules are laid out. The service is for anyone who wants to sell things online
and does not have the time/resource/interest to implement it himself.

It is for you if you want to sell tee shirts with funny graffiti; it is for
you if you are a writer who is embracing new media and wants to sell his
ebooks; it is for you if you are selling anything online. You can either
attach the widget to your existing blog/site(would be helpful for web-
cartoonists or people who already run a high traffic site) or create a new
store and host us with us.

> No description of value, benefits, and features.

Value and benefits are what I have already detailed. I have just begun and
features would be finalized as we work on it. If that looks like bad planning
to you, so be it. That's the mode that suits me.

> Reads like wishful thinking and dreams of grandeur.

We will see about it:-).

> All you have is an idea and a domain name.

I didn't claim otherwise.

~~~
tansey
> On a more serious note, I am not selling out or going to ask for capital
> ever.

You are thinking a TON of steps ahead. You have nothing. Ideas are cheap.

> I didn't feel the need to do research to prove that people are interested in
> selling things online and e-commerce is hard and if you are a merchant

That is NOT what it means to do market research. There are always competitors
in 99.9% of startup businesses. And the 0.1% that actually are truly unique
don't just magically stake their claim and stay that way forever-- imitators
and competitors emerge.

The most basic market research you need to do is to identify the size of the
market you're attacking. Put a real number on that somehow. It may be
guesswork, but do some serious digging.

Then you want to figure out how much your competitors are making: estimate
their costs, their profit margins, etc.

Based on where your competitors fit in, you may decide that you can't compete
on price and that changes your whole approach. If you have an idea to open a
24/7 grocery store in a town that has a Wal-Mart, you're probably not going to
be able to beat a 2% profit margin coupled with specially negotiated prices.
You may however be able to cater to a niche audience like college students by
offering additional services, like making hot sandwiches (drunk kids love
chicken parms at 3am).

These are the kind of decisions that affect the _entire_ direction of the
company.

> If they aren't selling it online already, it's only because the services
> aren't up to the mark, and that would be a good thing for me.

No, actually there are myriad reasons why someone would not be selling online
right now. Maybe they haven't ever heard of Shopify? Or maybe they don't trust
Shopify to handle their setup? These are marketing challenges, not necessarily
technical ones. Just being a great, determined coder does not guarantee you
will be successful.

Also:

You mentioned you're quitting your job in 2 months to do this full time. Why?
Do you have a ton of cash that you can do that? When do you expect to break
even? How long can you survive on no salary? What are your expenses?

Don't let me (or anyone else here) discourage you. Just have a real plan and
put some real effort into the business side of things or make a disclaimer
that tells us you're rich and aren't in it for the money. :)

~~~
petervandijck
"The most basic market research you need to do is to identify the size of the
market you're attacking."

I'm sorry but that's wrong. These numbers you mention serve no purpose
whatsoever. "Online commerce is a x billion market and x% of people aren't
happy with current options", that's just marketing speak (and I mean that in a
bad way, this time).

~~~
tansey
I outlined other extensions, but that is the very start of all marketing
research. I don't see how you can possibly just launch into a project without
having any clue of how much money there is to be made in the area.

The approach above is important because you need to be able to estimate how
much revenue you should expect at various levels of growth. I suppose for me
it's about whether I just want to have faith that my product is viable because
I would use it, or I want to have a ballpark estimate that tells me how much I
can realistically expect to get out of the company.

How much can someone make at selling online commerce software? Don't you think
that's an important question to have some handle on?

~~~
irahul
> but that is the very start of all marketing research.

Call it marketing research, but I am just interested in the potential market.
I am reasonably sure there are many people who want to sell things and there
are many who already are trading online.

For me, the crux is how do I attract people who need this service but aren't
aware of it. Unfortunately, I don't know how to go about it. In other thread,
it is suggested it's mainly trial and error and I go with talking to actual
customers and figuring out why they aren't selling/buying online. Things would
be easier if I figure out my niche market and there needs.

I respectfully disagree with your number analysis. My analysis is going to be
vague. I have calculated the initial development cost(which is just the cost
of living of 2 partners; we are paying our own expenses, no overheads for the
product) and the server cost for initial days. I have plans for bootstrapping.
I am reasonably sure the number analysis or the focus group stuff never
translates to real figures. Shopify is at 6000 which is far, far less than any
number analysis will come up with. In short, I know my investment, I have a
vague idea how much I am going to charge and how long it will take for me to
break even. Other than this, the only research I will be putting on will be in
finding a way to reach out to potential customers.

> The approach above is important because you need to be able to estimate how
> much revenue you should expect at various levels of growth.

I would say that sounds good in theory but never works in practice. Can you
point out some evidence(anecdotal) that things worked out as per the
estimates? I am talking about the revenue estimation. I think there isn't a
way to actually, successfully predict it. You can make an educated guess, but
that's that.

> How much can someone make at selling online commerce software?

I honestly think there isn't a correct answer to that question. And I am not
selling commerce software, I am offering software as a service over the web.

------
aresant
A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step -the most important
thing to being a successful entrepreneur is to just start - so good luck and
roll with the punches!

