
Robots Are Catching Up to Humans in the Jobs Race - pseudolus
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-04/jobs-data-robots-are-catching-up-to-humans-in-workforce
======
crdoconnor
Just once I'd like to see a balanced study on automation that:

* Properly takes into account jobs created by technology as well as destroyed.

* Properly takes into account jobs destroyed by austerity (e.g. government budget cuts).

* Doesn't conflate outsourcing with automation - e.g. statistically pretending that because a job no longer exists in the US, that it doesn't exist at all or (worse), as the ball state university study did, literally (and probably deliberately) mixing cost savings from automation and cost savings from outsourcing.

Instead all we get is the steady drumbeat of that old investor pipe dream -
the idea that employees are an unnecessary expense that will soon be dispensed
with as soon as we find a deep learning model thats sophisticated enough and
studies like the ball state U one that argue that the investor pipedream is
coming true at the same time as (weirdly) showing their political affiliations
by arguing for lower corporation taxes.

At the same time the investor automation hysteria has been good for my wages,
so... maybe I should just shut up.

~~~
chillacy
What's wrong with the ball state university study? Are there conflicting
studies which show the opposite?

It seems fairly obvious that any new automated technology removes more jobs
than it creates. A team of 20 engineers designs and maintains self service
checkouts, they're fabbed by maybe 100 more, and then thousands of grocery
workers have their shifts cut.

Here's the part which makes me feel a little guilty:

The self service machines are priced according to what the customer is willing
to pay, so as to be competitive with the labor they replace, so in effect the
money that used to be going to those thousands of grocery employees end up
being funneled to the handful who do the automating.

The economy becomes more and more winner-take-all, the gini coefficient rises
a little bit more, and like you said we all enjoy our wage increases.

~~~
imtringued
>It seems fairly obvious that any new automated technology removes more jobs
than it creates.

Widget A has $10 labor costs and $10 material costs. Widget B has $2 robot
costs (=robot engineers labor) and $10 material costs.

My budget is $200. When I buy 10 Widget B I will have $80 remaining that I can
spend on something else which will pay someone else's salary and therefore
create at least as many jobs as were destroyed by the robot.

~~~
chillacy
> I will have $80 remaining that I can spend on something else which will pay
> someone else's salary

Will you pay someone else's salary or will you issue a stock buyback?

So far it seems like the later is happening, and as a result wealth accrues at
the very top percentiles.

------
petra
There's also a recent trend - robots and automation as a service, i.e. rental.

This together with simple installation(since newer robots aren't risky to
humans and don't require a cage), and fast programming leaves relatively
little barriers for adoption of robots.

So it would be interesting to see what will happen.

~~~
ropman76
I used to work at a manufacturing company. I know the company tried renting
some robots for putting items on a rack and getting them off said rack. On the
surface it seemed like a good idea since this job is repetitive and boring for
a human. Sadly it didn’t work out. The amount of change in the parts being put
on the rack proved to be a challenge for the robot and the company ended up
ending the rental agreement.

------
dictum
This headline bothers me: it's simple, expedient and even whimsical, but it
describes the situation as if the robots have agency and an innate drive to
seek jobs, and by continuous self improvement, are closing in on human
candidates.

------
Animats
So why still so many people in offices? There are now a huge number of
employees for whom everything goes in and out over a wire. Those are the ones
who should be most vulnerable to automation.

~~~
monkeydust
Asked my barber last week...

You worried about brexit?

Barber said, nope hair still grows whether we're in Europe or not.

OK, you worried about a deep recession and mass unemployment?

Barber said, nope hair still grows and needs cutting especially if people are
interviewing more.

Ok, ok, so what about Automation?

Barber said...would you trust a robot to get this close to your ears with a
razor sharp blade?

Honesly, true story which might explain why 3 new hairdressers have opened up
in my high street in the last year. Also as someone who works in software and
has to deal with 'bugs' his last point made me really think!

~~~
anon1m0us
Honestly, that's why I'm moving into real estate. People will _always_ need a
home to live in. More affordable housing will always be in demand.

The price of homes is pushed up by everyone _except_ those who want to buy
their first one: Banks, Insurance companies, incumbent owners, construction
companies, land owners, real estate agents, governments.

Everyone wants higher home prices except people who don't own a home.

I _will_ work against that tide. I am going to build a company that will build
me an affordable house and then I will sell affordable houses to people.

~~~
Judgmentality
> I am going to build a company that will build me an affordable house and
> then I will sell affordable houses to people.

How?

~~~
joejerryronnie
With robots

------
vkaku
The way I read it - Bloomberg writes an alarmist article.

Nothing to worry about, unless you're invested in automation stock.

------
neonate
[https://outline.com/E6EL7W](https://outline.com/E6EL7W)

~~~
sm4rk0
Thanks! That's useful. Are you doing this manually or you programmed a bot?

~~~
neonate
Manually.

------
autokad
a little annoying they swap Mexico and Canada's keys in the two charts. Beyond
that, I didnt read anything that was particularly compelling. the tittle could
have just as well been: "Robots are getting cheaper" rather than "Robots Are
Catching Up to Humans in the Jobs Race"

~~~
chiefalchemist
And if you're a biz owner, and you're making hiring decisions, which of those
headlines is more compelling? Let's not be naive, they're the same.

~~~
crdoconnor
The question is can people change their taste in manufactured goods quicker
than a robot can adapt?

A robot that builds shoddy shoes that people don't particularly want any more
getting cheaper isn't compelling.

A robot that makes Budweiser 5% more efficiently isn't compelling if what
people really want is craft beer.

~~~
chiefalchemist
Yes. However. Changing tastes isn't very important if you have no
money...because the robot has your job.

The best example is autonomous long haul trucking. No drivers means no need to
truck stop food. No need for food means no dinner staff. Etc.

Replace a single job and multiple downstream jobs will be affected. That's
true everywhere.

It's coming. Can we adjust and readjust quick enough? At what point does
unemployment become permanent state? Then what?

~~~
crdoconnor
In the 1930s the answer was to create a job guarantee in the form of a massive
public works program. That's how stuff like the Brooklyn Bridge and the LA
Griffith Observatory got built.

The other option is to keep the retirement age down. I'd like to know why so
many people who believe in this automation revolution are instead advocating
for the exact opposite on the grounds that we actually _really_ have the
opposite problem...

You can't take both sides of this fence. Either the automation revolution is
real and retirement ages can be lowered or it isn't and articles like this are
spouting horseshit.

~~~
chiefalchemist
Yes. Now when are we going to have this discussion? It should have been a 2016
issue. 2016 had no issues. Does anyone reasonable expect 2020 to be different?

~~~
icebraining
It should have been a 2018 issue as well. Arguably these are legislative
matters, not executive.

~~~
chiefalchemist
Yes and no. The Executive branch can set vision and tone. JFK's "we're going
to the moon" always come to mind.

------
pygy_
Think resource extraction, transportation and processing, for self-
sustainance.

In that regard, there’s a 200 years old phenomenon where humanity is by the
day more reliant on the industry whereas the industry is less and less reliant
on humanity.

If it continues, it won’t end well.

[https://www.xkcd.com/605/](https://www.xkcd.com/605/)

