
Solar Manufacturing Oversupply: Likely Exacerbating [pdf] - prostoalex
https://doc.research-and-analytics.csfb.com/docView?sourceid=em&document_id=x691349&serialid=L3f%2bdcbQOUfpFcJ2bz9CDEuCoQT2wz09vthmZKbV4oU%3d
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taneq
Hopefully an oversupply of solar panels will make grid-tied battery storage
even more attractive. This could in turn cause a positive feedback loop,
propping up the solar market as storage takes off.

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toomuchtodo
[http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/this-is-what-
the...](http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/this-is-what-the-utility-
death-spiral-looks-like)

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gravypod
That's not too much of a bad thing on the consumer end. Hopefully a few of the
smaller players won't catch on and fail.

Then we can all pick up solar panels for pennies on the dollars.

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epistasis
Yeah, as long as it doesn't systemically weaken the solar industry over the
next decade, which I don't think it will do, then it should probably be a
great thing.

There are new markets opening up as storage becomes cheaper too; lots of
people in developing countries will be able to power their homes and
businesses without having to wait for a grid to be built out. Having these
markets leapfrog straight to solar and wind will be great for everybody.

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marze
Considering we need about 30x the solar currently installed to made a real
dent in fossil fuel usage, I'd call what we have now an under supply.

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sna1l
Supply vs demand though. Even if we need 30x current solar capacity to make a
dent, if there isn't adequate demand, then it is still an over supply

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infogulch
Supply and demand are in equilibrium. As the supply increases the price will
drop and the demand will increase to match. This is exactly how we want it:
more solar panels sooner for cheaper.

While that's what we want from an ecological perspective, this price drop will
also drop the manufacturer's profits (possibly down to a loss), and from
_their_ perspective it really is an "oversupply".

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meric
It means for supply to continue to expand while maintaining equilibrium,
manufacturers must continue to lower its costs, year after year relentlessly.
The oversupply is a hint some of them are having trouble doing just that.

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meric
An oversupply means demand for solar panels that can be produced at a profit
is less than the supply of solar panels. If they can't produce the solar
panels for a profit, eventually the companies will be too broke to further
expand supply. The supply of solar panels will sit at an equilibrium, limiting
Humanity's move to solar energy.

Solar panel manufacturers must continue to become more efficient every year to
drive demand. An oversupply is not an economical problem - The world knows it
needs much more solar energy than it is currently using. The problem is a
technological one.

Solar panels must use less than a certain amount of goods and services
compared to existing energy sources for it to be economical for society to
switch to it. You could enact a law to forbid the use of coal energy tomorrow,
allowing only solar energy, but it would work as well as the Khmer Rouge
forcing city dwellers onto farms - which would only result in mass starvation
because city dwellers lack the skill to farm using less than a certain amount
of goods and services. i.e. profitably. The technology is not there yet in
terms of replacing all energy use with solar power.

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jimrandomh
Would a valid alternative interpretation be that capacity to perform
installations is lagging behind capacity to manufacture panels?

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maxerickson
It depends on if there is demand for the installations.

