
Warning of blackouts if wind, sun added to grid - gibsonf1
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2008/11/10/MNHJ141BID.DTL
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lutorm
That's quite funny coming from a CA paper. Like we don't already have warnings
of blackouts... ;-)

But yeah, the grid obviously has to be improved. I thought this was an
interesting idea: Electrify the freight rail lines (much more efficient that
diesel-electric), and since the rail lines will need power across the country,
build a modern grid along their rights of way.
<http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4301>

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anamax
Electric is significantly more efficient than diesel-electric only when the
diesel-electric has to do a lot of braking. (Electrics have regenerative
braking, so stopping one train can be used to power another.) That means
either lots of stops or hills; a train going down can power a train going up.

While trains spend a lot of money on fuel, it isn't a big fraction of their
costs, so even free fuel can't make a huge difference in total train costs.

Moreover, electrification is very expensive. It's so expensive that
electrification plan for the CalTrain corridor (San Jose to San Francisco),
which is pretty much a best-case for electrification due to the frequent
stops, doesn't mention cost-savings as a reason. They'll probably never
recover the capital costs.

Electrification might pay for itself over the Rockies, but it's a loss
throughout much of the US.

Since fuel-savings is pure profit, the freight-train companies are very
motivated and constantly look at these things.

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paulhart
This isn't FUD as another commenter suggested. There are significant issues
with transmission management when you start adding significant percentages of
renewables into your electricity mix.

The folks that manage real-time demand (i.e. ERCOT, SPP, MISO, IESO etc)
haven't yet figured out how to deal with the huge transmission swings that
come from large-scale wind generation. They're used to much smaller problems,
like a transmission line going down, or a generation facility going offline
unexpectedly. The idea of a ~30% swing in generation within a matter of
minutes is new.

As for problems with the transmission infrastructure, there are two big
issues. First, infrastructure doesn't exist where it's needed when it comes to
renewables (you don't do capital investment in the middle of nowhere for no
reason). Secondly, there's going to be a huge workforce crunch in the next
10-15 years in this sector - electricity isn't a 'sexy' industry these days,
and a large (50%?) percentage of the workforce will be at retirement age in
the next decade or two.

A smaller transmission issue is related to the rules currently in place for
approving build outs - one representative of a regional transmission operator
claimed they had over 1000 years of backlog in their transmission request
queue if the existing rules were fully applied.

My 'day' job involves working with a variety of companies that are in the
electricity sector, both wholesale and residential. This specific problem was
the subject of a talk at a trade conference I was at a few months ago, lots of
concern in the room.

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justindz
I didn't think it was FUD, but the article did confuse me so maybe it was just
poorly written (or I suck). Here's what I read:

Title: Warming of blackouts if wind, sun added to grid [note: I think this was
supposed to be "warning"]

Opener: Adding electricity from the wind and the sun could increase the
frequency of blackouts and reduce the reliability of the nation's electrical
grid, an industry report says.

Body: The North American Electric Reliability Corp. says in a report scheduled
for release today that unless appropriate measures are taken to improve
transmission of electricity, rules reducing carbon dioxide emissions by
utilities could impair the reliability of the power grid.

They went from warning about alternatives to discussing issues with emission
reduction rules. Those two weren't connected in the article, so maybe I'm just
not up on SF legislation. Am I to understand that the emission reduction rules
mandate the use of some solar and wind and that the result of that could
impair reliability because of the swings you mentioned (not mentioned in the
article)? Help :-)

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paulhart
Yes, lots of jurisdictions are implementing "percentage by year" legislation
that mandates (for instance) 20% renewables by 2020. The industry is trying to
understand what all the impacts of this are, and there's a negative impact on
reliability when you have a large percentage of unreliable (i.e. you can't
guarantee it's sunny or windy) supply in your mix.

~~~
justindz
Right on. I think the article would have been a lot better if that link was
explicitly stated. For those of use outside the industry. Thanks!

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josefresco
Classic FUD.

