

Ask HN: What are the chances that Paul the Octopus could have 100% accuracy? - raheemm

For those wondering what I am talking about see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_the_Octopus&#60;p&#62;I am just amazed that Paul the octopus had a 100% accuracy with his predictions for the world cup matches. I am wondering what is the probability of that?&#60;p&#62;Could there be other explanations for Paul's forecasting accuracy? It may seem silly but 7 predictions in a row are accurate? Isn't that highly unusual?
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stoney
Derren Brown did a stunt where he flipped a coin and got heads ten times in a
row, which is even less likely than Paul the Octopus's 8 in a row success. How
did Derren do it? He made lots and lots of attempts. The point is that while
Paul the Octopus was improbably successful, how many other world cup
predictors tried and failed very early on? Selection bias in action.

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phe
It was 8 in a row for the 2010 World Cup which would lead to the odds being
0.5^8 or 0.39%.

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sdesol
It's statistically unlikely .5 * .5 * .5 ... but it's not magical.

To answer your question, it depends on how many guesses he makes.

I'm more curious about how the food was placed in the containers. Was it more
visible in one container? Does Paul have a preference with regards to left or
right.

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iacvlvs
I heard someone mention that octopodes are attracted to the colour red. I
don't know if that's true, but it would explain why Paul picked the German
flag, with its red central stripe, and the Spanish flag, with more red than
Germany's.

Or maybe he's in league with the Great Old Ones...

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philwelch
It's not true. Octopus are colorblind.

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philwelch
There's a possibility that after he started being well-known, the players gave
him more credit than he was worth and got psyched up, or psyched out, by his
predictions.

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photon_off
It certainly is true that there is a possibility. However, I'd suspect that
the impact a voting octopus has on players and the overall outcome of a game
where millions of people are stakeholders is very slight to say the least.

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forcetenhen
He made some wrong predictions 2 years ago for the European Championships so
he's not infallible, though he appears to be getting much better :)

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WalterGR
Did you not read the Wikipedia article you linked to? It seems to answer your
questions.

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raheemm
Yes I ended up reading it more fully after submitting my question here :)

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grasshoper
It's easy when you can see the future.

