
Would You Go to China on Business Now? - imartin2k
https://shift.newco.co/2018/12/06/would-you-go-to-china-on-business-now/
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5trokerac3
Before we assume that this is "a high stakes game of geopolitical poker to
divert from Mueller", as the author suggests, let's see exactly what a C-level
executive of one of the world's largest tech companies allegedly offered to
the Iranians and _for what purpose_. Hypothetically, for all we know she was
offering to use the company to launder money made from selling nuclear weapons
tech on the black market.

It's not only possible, but likely, that this arrest was the result of months
of covert work put in by DOJ and State Department officials, and is the result
of a legitimate investigation.

~~~
fhood
I agree, skepticism is important, but I am willing to believe that this arrest
was for basically the reasons stated, and I think to assume that it is
completely otherwise would be overly cynical.

That said, I would not be terribly surprised if the Chinese felt forced to
retaliate in some way.

~~~
creaghpatr
You need to read "The Chickenshit Club" which details the long, agonizing
process the DOJ goes through before making an indictment (and subsequent
arrest) because you seem to be laboring under the delusion that one person or
persons decided "oh let's just arrest someone important from China"

Edit: I want to add that China is an amazing place everyone should visit at
least once in their life and I hope the author does not let his fanatical
political theories get in the way of what could be a life-expanding trip.

~~~
clubm8
>I want to add that China is an amazing place everyone should visit at least
once in their life and I hope the author does not let his fanatical political
theories get in the way of what could be a life-expanding trip.

Well, having to buy a cheap chromebook I'd throw away/sell after the trip is a
bit of a drag. Not being able to bring my mobile is a drag. Worrying that my
public history of being pro-democracy, pro-free speech, and pro-Tor may result
in harassment is a draq.

I had a lovely time when I went to Tokyo, without any visas, special
electronics, or other considerations beyond the usual "don't leave your phone
in the hotel room untattended" and "use a VPN" type opsec I always use
traveling.

Why should I give my tourism dollars to a state that will at best tolerate and
at worst actively harass me?

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rrggrr
I don't go anymore and here are the reasons why:

1\. Arbitrage gone. The China arb on price has largely closed (as it should
have) and its not a viable business strategy anymore for the markets I serve.

2\. Vendor disinterest. Again, as it should have, the domestic Chinese market
has grown such that export business in my markets is more trouble than its
worth to my Chinese vendors. Those who do export find it easier to trade with
Russia, China, Pakistan, and SE Asia where the technical requirements are
fewer.

3\. Pollution. I found myself getting sicker each time I went. I'm sensitive
to smog, smoke, etc. It just became too painful.

4\. Principle. As I get older I have an increasing need to trade with partners
who stand for something more than profit. I want to do business with people
who believe in making the world a cleaner, safer, more verdant and just place.
China isn't there yet. Mercantilism, tribalism and ambition remain the
dominant philosophies. I wish for Chinese leadership in a better world in my
lifetime, and I'm realistic about its likelihood.

5\. Hostility. I maintain a few good personal relationships where I still
trade effectively. Those aside, China's prosperity and domestic rhetoric has
not resulted in a kinder and gentler approach to Westerners, particularly
those of us in America. I see this situation further deteriorating in the
coming months and years.

~~~
bilbo0s
Number 5 is what kills it for me.

Don't underestimate number 5. It's very true. At least right now there are a
few there who will still adhere to the niceties of just being courteous, but
the hostility between the US and China is growing, and the number of people
like that will decrease precipitously over time.

All that said, I think there are certain classes of Westerners who may find it
easier than others in China in the future. I think the average Chinese person
is _starting_ to be more nuanced in their views. So _maybe_ they see a big
difference between a German guy and an American guy? I can't say, but I think
that may be true??? Also, if you're high enough on the food chain, you're
obviously a lot easier to tolerate. But that's a very small number of
Americans. And, as always, the basketball players will likely always be able
to make a go of it in China, it's kind of like Iran with the basketball guys.

But yeah, if you're a regular Joe-American, the tides are definitely shifting.
But Captain Obvious could tell you that.

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kenneth
As someone who goes to China for business regularly…

I am not feeling the trade war much. It comes up in conversation— the Chinese
business community is not happy and worried about the economy. Otherwise, it's
business as usual.

I have zero worries that I'll be abducted on my next trip as retaliation.
Granted— I'm a Swiss citizen and not a public company C-level. Generally,
there's a lot of interactions between Chinese and Americans in my field, and I
don't think that'll end because of the political difficulties. I'd be very
worried if it did.

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Bucephalus355
Background on the Japanese and Americans in WWII stranded in each other’s
respective country.

Americans were pretty much able to get out of Japan after December 7th. I
believe the police arrived to talk and quarantine them all, but all the
reporters I know made it out on their own easily within the next month or two.

Same thing in Germany. William Shirer was reporting from Berlin as an American
up until early 1942.

The Japanese Embassy in the US was arrested en-masse and put into a hotel for
the duration of the war. A fun game the State Department would play is
encouraging them to file requests for better conditions, equalizing their
treatment with the Germans (who got better treatment since they did not
surprise attack), and then rebuking them in a face to face meeting for all
their requests (violates saving face norm of Japanese society).

~~~
opo
Do you have any sources for any of this?

For example:

>...Americans were pretty much able to get out of Japan after December 7th.

Well... I didn't see any references specially on Japan itself, but when Japan
took over Guam, they interned:

>...and 100 civilian men, including businessmen and the American Catholic
priests, as well as the Spanish Catholic Bishop, Miguel Olano. According to
official records nineteen of them died while they were prisoners. All of them
suffered from malnutrition and exposure.

[https://www.guampedia.com/wwii-prisoners-of-war-sent-to-
japa...](https://www.guampedia.com/wwii-prisoners-of-war-sent-to-japan/)

>...Same thing in Germany. William Shirer was reporting from Berlin as an
American up until early 1942.

According to wikipedia:

>...subsequently tipped off that the Gestapo was building an espionage case
against him, which carried the death penalty. Shirer began making arrangements
to leave Germany, which he did in December 1940.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_L._Shirer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_L._Shirer)

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leroy_masochist
Off-the-cuff reaction to the question in the article title is that the author
is not important enough to be worried (saying that respectfully, not to be a
dick).

I definitely wouldn't go if I were Tim Cook or Zuck or someone like that.

Will be interesting/scary to see what China does in response.

~~~
forkLding
Ironically, major Chinese executives are thinking the same thought about
coming to US these couple weeks because one of their own got arrested

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mikeyzhe
Ask people what they want to do != what people actually will do.

Image you ask people if they want to exercise more and eat less junk food.

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groby_b
> a scion of global capitalism is now in jail for geopolitical crimes, a first
> in the modern history of the western hemisphere, as far as I can tell.

That's mostly an indication this doesn't happen often enough. The world just
might be a better place if we started actually jailing "scions of global
capitalism" for the crimes they commit.

Also, is it only me, or is this rather close to a completely unhinged rant?

~~~
tathougies
Completely unhinged rant by someone who thinks they're knowledgeable but is
rather ignorant of the history of nations.

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yet112233
Chinese government has been holding three American citizens for ranson for a
few months now. Most likely this the US response.

Canada agreed to the arrest because they have big problems in Vancouver. The
city has become the playground of the party elite and local Chinese/Taiwanese
are routinely intimidated.

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tathougies
I would not go to china to do business. I won't do business with Maoists, and
I don't care how cheap their labor is. And I don't particularly care that the
woman arrested is the daughter of a prominent Chinese man. I don't expect the
United States government to look out for the interest of prominent chinese
citizens.

> There won’t be a single senior US technology executive going to China for
> the next week or two, if not longer

Good. Not only is it an environmental disaster to travel to China frequently,
continuously producing goods in a state that is the top contributor to global
pollution is hardly a good thing. Not to mention the illiberalism.

~~~
5trokerac3
Yeah, why offshore your cheap labor when you can get an American non-violent
drug offender to build it for less than $1 an hour. Then you can slap that
sweet Made In The USA label on your product too. /s

~~~
tathougies
This is a rather low-effort comment, which sets up a false dichotomy.

~~~
5trokerac3
It's far from a false dichotomy. Non-violent drug offenses are the modern day
equivalent of vagrancy laws and private enterprise making use of prison labor
the equivalent of the chain gang.

Just because China is unquestionably more authoritarian doesn't mean that we
don't have similar arrangements in America.

~~~
tathougies
Sure, but someone who's principled enough to not do business in China is
likely principled enough to not do business with private prisons / other cheap
labor schemes.

That's why your response sets up a false dichotomy; it pre-supposes that
anyone not using China for cheap labor is necessarily looking for cheap labor
somewhere else.

