

Putin Blames Outside Forces for Economic Woes - timmilton
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/19/world/europe/vladimir-putin-annual-press-conference.html

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bhouston
The sanctions (because of the Ukraine liberation/invasion/annexation --
depends on your perspective) are part of the issue, so he isn't wrong.

It is sort of nice to see economic sanctions being effective (even if that is
only part of the story.) They also seemed to have a real effect on Iran in
getting them to change their behavior. I think that Israel may be next on the
list (although primarily from Europe, US is likely to sit out that fight), the
wind is sure blowing in that direction.

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cpursley
For those Russians trying to go about their daily lives, the sanctions are
economic terrorism. How is this nice at all?

Let's turn this around ~ what if the world put similar sanctions on the US
after the Iraq/Afghanistan blunders?

~~~
bhouston
> what if the world put similar sanctions on the US after the Iraq/Afghanistan
> blunders?

Actually it probably would have been a good idea to use the threat of economic
sanctions to stop the US invasion of Iraq based on false pretenses (remember
it was about WMD) -- it was a mess all around, hugely costly in terms of Iraqi
life (aren't the estimates in the +100,000 range these days?) and US money (2
trillion if I remember correctly) and US credibility.

I doubt you could have gotten wide support for sanctions regarding stopping
the larger multinational force in Afghanistan.

Ironically, it is likely because of the Iraq debacle that the US is in favor
of economic sanctions.

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kamme
To be honest Putin is correct, it are outside factors that are contributing to
the decline. For example the US has drastically increased oil production the
last few years[1] in order to drop oil prices. Around the end of 2011 oil
production really went up, and tensions began to form between the countries.
My guess is the US saw the approaching re-election[2] of Putin as a bad move
and decided to take action.

Of course I'm not pointing fingers or blaming any side, it's just strange to
see history is repeating itself all over again. The news about the NASA budget
increase was no surprise for me anyway...

[1]
[http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MC...](http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS1&f=M)
[2]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia–United_States_relations#...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia–United_States_relations#Putin.27s_third_term)

~~~
jsmcgd
I don't think the US increased oil production to decrease oil prices. It has
had a very successful increase in shale gas production due to new
technologies. This has affected the oil prices, and Saudi Arabia in turn isn't
liking the competition, so it has massively increased its oil production as a
matter of policy. This will eliminate a lot of new, marginally profitable
energy producers, across the globe, including Russia. Once they've collapsed,
expect the taps to close again. I think the current situation is more of a
happy accident for US Foreign Policy. A lot of American producers will be
burnt by the current price of oil as well.

~~~
kamme
Your theory sounds logical, and that action by OPEC would also seem logical.

... but the numbers suggest otherwise. The last few years there is no increase
in production by OPEC countries:
[http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=5&pi...](http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=53&aid=1&cid=r1,CG9,&syid=2010&eyid=2013&unit=TBPD)

~~~
saryant
Saudi Arabia hasn't increased production, but they also haven't decreased
production. Within OPEC, the Saudis are supposed to be the swing producer,
adjusting their output up and down to maintain price targets. That arrangement
has largely broken down as it relied on the other members to respect their
quotas. OPEC has found (many times) that when prices drop too far, their
members ignore the quotas and feud for marketshare instead.

The Saudis used to keep to their role as swing producer but this time they're
letting the rest of OPEC sweat. They've got currency reserves to weather this
storm but most of the other OPEC members do not (save for the rich Gulf
emirates). The Saudis are trying to teach the rest of OPEC a lesson and bring
them back in line.

Couple that with the phenomenal increase in American oil and gas output due to
fracking and horizontal drilling and you've got a situation in which two major
producers, the US and Saudi Arabia, are flooding the market. Since there's no
central authority over American producers, they'll drill whenever the market
price will sustain their project. America is unique in that mineral resources
are privately held rather than owned by the state, giving private enterprise
the incentive to drill as much as possible until the price renders a given
well uneconomical.

The end result is that the Saudis have abdicated their role (not for the first
time, but this may be the last) and the Americans have picked up.

America is now the world's swing producer. No one saw that coming.

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binarymax
Breaking news: Politician blames external factors for problems, assumes no
responsibility.

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longlivegnu
I'm just curious why does everyone (a lot of westerners) not like Russia?

~~~
bhouston
I don't find that Westerners don't like Russia in general -- at least not the
circles I run in. But the Ukraine invasion/liberation/annexation was perceived
widely in the West as an aggressive and unnecessary move. So I think it is
mostly Russia's recent actions that have caused the negative perception.

Here is some polling numbers that show that Russia has gained a lot of
negative perception:

[http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/country-rating-
poll.p...](http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/country-rating-poll.pdf)

EDIT: I do think that Russia is viewed as having a corruption/mobster issue in
the West, even before the Ukraine issue.

~~~
throwaway90446
_was perceived widely in the West_

Because of our propaganda. We heard all kinds of things about Russian military
mobilization, conspiracy theories about who shot down the airliner, how much
Putin hates gays, how horrible living conditions were at the Sochi olympic
village, how "rigged" the Crimean referendum was, etc.

But we have heard _nothing_ about NATO breaking its post-wall promise, of the
enormous rise of nazism on Russia's borders( actual nazism, not the soft
nationalism you see in France ), the outrageous corruption and duplicity of
the players responsible for the ouster of Yanukovych, the ethnic and political
divisions between the Crimea and Ukraine proper, etc.

I continue to be astounded that HN is so virulently anti-russia, mainly
because I thought this group would be the most immune to propaganda and most
likely to question the official narrative.

~~~
bhouston
> Russian military mobilization

The military mobilization on Ukraine's borders did happen.

> conspiracy theories about who shot down the airliner

It was likely the rebels with Russian technology.

> how much Putin hates gays

He did that to himself.

> how horrible living conditions were at the Sochi olympic village

I don't think that is a major factor.

> nazism on Russia's borders

Please explain.

> outrageous corruption and duplicity of the players responsible for the
> ouster of Yanukovych

Please explain.

> the ethnic and political divisions between the Crimea and Ukraine proper

I am aware of that. But doing an invasion first and then asking for permission
or doing a referendum is not usually how these things are done in the modern
era. That was an aggressive move. Usually there is an independence movement
and votes are held and permission is sought, it is a long process but a doable
one if it is peaceful.

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kingkawn
Before Crimea did he blame outside forces for economic joy?

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kirushik
So, that Rosneft $40bn affair [1] is not a big deal then?

[1]
[http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/15eb42e6-852e-11e4-ab4e-00144...](http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/15eb42e6-852e-11e4-ab4e-00144feabdc0.html)

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mikhailt
Really? If the country's economy is solely affected by outsiders, then you
really have a bigger problem and should only blame yourself.

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ihsw
Outside forces are responsible for economic woes, but Putin is responsible for
economic successes.

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Aoyagi
Is anyone surprised?

