
New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market - EndXA
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/01/new-coronavirus-spreading-between-humans-how-it-started/
======
sdiw
From what I've read it came from bats. Most probably bats being eaten.[1]

Bats have been the source of at least 4 pandemics. It's interesting to note
that current coronavirus spreading in China and the SARS outbreak of 2003 have
two things in common: Both are from the coronavirus family, and both were
passed from animals to humans in a wet market.[2]

I tried to put together a page for coronavirus in China here where I tried to
gather all the information in one place in order for us to easily follow stuff
([https://thestrife.co/wuhan-coronavirus-media-
coverage](https://thestrife.co/wuhan-coronavirus-media-coverage)) and
photos[3].

1\. [https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/xgqy3n/scientists-now-
thi...](https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/xgqy3n/scientists-now-think-they-
know-what-started-chinas-deadly-coronavirus-bats)

2\. [https://www.businessinsider.in/science/news/experts-think-
th...](https://www.businessinsider.in/science/news/experts-think-the-wuhan-
coronavirus-jumped-from-bats-to-snakes-to-people-bats-have-been-the-source-of-
at-least-4-pandemics-/articleshow/73569703.cms)

3\. [https://thestrife.co/wuhan-coronavirus-
gallery](https://thestrife.co/wuhan-coronavirus-gallery)

~~~
chrisco255
I've heard the bat eating theory, but the virus is airborne and infects the
lungs. So it seems that eating a bat probably didn't cause this.

~~~
echelon
Method of transmission does not stop bats from being a reservoir for the
virus.

It was already capable of making the species jump (else it wouldn't), and
could have further adapted to using other transmission routes once it got into
humans.

The long incubation time makes me think it takes awhile for the virus to get a
foothold.

------
throwawaylolx
How common is for SARS coronaviruses to share the same envelope proteins? I
downloaded 200 CoV envelope proteins from NCBI, and I couldn't find any pair
of identical proteins. As someone unfamiliar with virology, I'm curious if
there are any explanations for how come the protein envelope of 2019-nCoV[1]
is the same as the protein envelope described by the Institute of Military
Medicine Nanjing Command 2 years ago in the unpublished paper "Genomic
characterization and infectivity of a novel SARS-like coronavirus in Chinese
bats"[3]? Is it just a coincidence? The bats used in the paper were from
Zhejiang not Hubei.

[1]
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/protein/YP_009724392.1](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/protein/YP_009724392.1)

[2]
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/protein/AVP78033.1](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/protein/AVP78033.1)

[3]
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6135831/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6135831/)

~~~
akiselev
It's almost certainly a coincidence. Bats don't have an inflammatory response
to viral infections like other mammals [1] so viruses are basically harmless
to them and they are perfect carriers, with many species having life
expectancies reaching 2-3 decades. Studies of regional populations of bats
have found that if a virus makes it into a bat population, it will usually
spread to 50-90% of the total population (where virus = rabies and region =
Western Europe) [2]. This Wuhan virus evolving from another SARS-like virus
while maintaining surface markers is squarely in the realm of possibility.

[1]
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6410205/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6410205/)

[2]
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1539106/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1539106/)

------
EndXA
Key quote from the article:

> “If we were to shut the wildlife markets, a lot of these outbreaks would be
> a thing of the past,” says Ian Lipkin, director of Columbia University’s
> Center for Infection and Immunity, whose lab worked with Chinese officials
> to develop early diagnostic tests for SARS.

> That’s because both SARS and the new outbreak are zoonotic, meaning these
> diseases started in animals before spreading to humans. Zoonotic diseases
> rank among the world’s most infamous. HIV, Ebola, and H5N1 influenza, for
> example, all percolated in wildlife before close interactions with humans
> spawned international outbreaks. With SARS, food preparers and people who
> handled, killed, and sold wild animals made up nearly 40 percent of the
> first cases. The earliest episodes were also among people who were more
> likely to live within walking distance of wildlife markets.

~~~
CydeWeys
Maybe (hopefully?) China will shut down these markets after this outbreak.
They've been known to take serious measures in the past when necessary. Surely
the benefit of these markets cannot outweigh their costs (including on the
local wildlife, not just infectious diseases).

~~~
verroq
Won’t that just drive it underground? Then nobody would even know where it
started when the next outbreak happens.

~~~
CydeWeys
Don't underestimate how effectively a totalitarian and surveillance state like
China can be in discouraging behaviors they don't want. People aren't willing
to risk their lives just to eat exotic animals. And that could be what's at
stake here; witness what happened to some of the people involved in the
melamine baby milk formula scandal.

~~~
verroq
Seems like they are already risking their lives eating exotic animals.

~~~
ddalex
Thinking that the wild animals are more healthy

------
thisistheend123
President Xi has warned that the virus is spreading. His intervention seems to
be unprecedented. Is it worse than what it seems to be?

They have quarantined whole cities and are building a hospital at war scale
especially for this.

Maybe the Chinese know something that the world doesn't know yet.

~~~
howmayiannoyyou
Anecdotal (not official) reports suggest as many as 100,000 infections in
Wuhan area. There are claims the virus may be spread through eyes as well as
inhalation. Additional unsubstantiated claims suggest low to no fever during
incubation period, making detection difficult. The most sensationalist claim
making the rounds is that a known Wuhan area PLA biolab may have failed to
contain this pathogen.

In the end none of the above matters at all. What matters is the willingness
globally to take political and economic action to contain transmission. The
World Health Organization's failure to declare this a global emergency is
risky if the characteristics stated above turn out to be accurate. Timing is
key.

~~~
refurb
Is transmission through eyes that odd?

The common cold already is. You rub your eyes, the virus enters your tears,
which drain to your nose.

~~~
howmayiannoyyou
It matters because face masks are not enough to prevent transmission, which
matters relative to the common cold only because this virus kills. The common
cold does not.

~~~
Fomite
But this is taken care of by face marks and hand washing, because what would
be happening is you touch your eyes.

If you're using a face mask, you should be washing your hands anyway, because
if you think it's working, the moment you touch it you've come in contact with
virus.

~~~
dbmueller
how long can a virus live on a face mask?

~~~
Fomite
For an enveloped virus like this? "Awhile". I'm sure there's estimates for
SARS or Influenza somewhere that are probably pretty correct for this too.

------
hisomehelppls
Can someone explain
[https://blast.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/Blast.cgi?RID=2PUA1EJK114&CMD...](https://blast.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/Blast.cgi?RID=2PUA1EJK114&CMD=Get)
to me?

This is a comparison between 'bat SARS-like coronavirus' and 'Wuhan seafood
market pneumonia virus'. Under Alignments, it looks like the envelope proteins
are identical. Wouldn't that be unlikely for a natural mutation? Would this
not lead credence to this being a leak from their BSL-4 lab about twenty miles
away from the Wuhan seafood market?

Thanks!

~~~
corporateslave5
Yes. There’s a biology from Harvard who has noticed this. I think people are
catching on it’s from the lab. I’ve seen PhD level biologists on twitter
making the same observations

Here it is:

Wuhan virus is essentially SARs [http://virological.org/t/missed-orfs-in-
ncov/345](http://virological.org/t/missed-orfs-in-ncov/345) "Anyone notice two
‘accessory’ ORFs not annotated in nCoV? Orf13 (aka 9b) (28284:28577) and Orf14
(28734:28955) . One is ~ 70% ID and other ~ 90% to syntenous ORFs in BAT SARS
2017 ?"

This was a lab break.

~~~
im3w1l
For non-biologists among us ORF = open reading frame. It has roughly the same
meaning as a gene.

------
runawaybottle
I saw this map on Reddit today, and I’m probably going to add to ignorant
hysteria:

[https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

I just can’t believe the real number of infected is as low as the reported
confirmed number based on that map. It’s got to be all of over China if the
confirmed cases are all over like that (not to mention it made to NA and
Europe).

------
zbjornson
I'm amazed that there's not a movement to stop eating and being around animals
as much world-wide, given that so much disease (and environmental damage)
comes from consumption of and proximity to animals:

\- MERS-CoV: bats via dromedary camels

\- nCoV-2019: bats or snakes?

\- Influenza: pigs, birds

\- E. coli O157:H7: cows and other farm animals.

...

(Edit: I mean along the lines of how safer sex is encouraged to prevent STDs,
hand washing is encouraged to prevent food-borne illnesses, ... I haven't seen
a call for the above.)

~~~
cm2187
The worst thing you can do to the human immune system is to cease to expose it
to pathogens.

~~~
ppseafield
It's not a dichotomy - removing animals from our diet does not leave a sterile
environment for humans. Humans and their environment are plenty filthy on
their own.

~~~
cm2187
Then this is purely a vegan argument unrelated to the virus.

~~~
nerdponx
Again, not a dichotomy. Humans will remain exposed to pathogens even if we
eliminate one source of new and dangerous ones.

------
mrb
Based on documented facts and best epidemiological guesses about the novel
coronavirus 2019-nCoV, I think it will _probably_ turn into a pandemic
affecting most countries. Let's review:

    
    
      • human-to-human transmission while asymptomatic, truly the killer feature [1]
      • 15% mortality rate in first patients (6 of 41 are dead) [2]
      • cases/deaths doubling every 2 days [public data]
      • epidemiologist predicts 100x more infections in 10 days [3]
    

Caveats:

• mortality rate sample is small (41) and the first patients are likely to be
the most severe cases (pre-existing conditions, weak immune systems, etc); so
the true rate could be less.

• public reports of cases/deaths could be increasing slower than reported
because Chinese authorities could be trying to be more truthful (IOW reported
numbers are finally catching up w/reality); or alternatively public reports
could be lagging reality because authorities could be increasingly hiding the
facts or simply be less and less able to report and monitor as Wuhan is
turning into a bigger unmanageable chaos every passing day

• availability of medicine may limit the outbreak. The pulmonologist who
discovered the SARS coronavirus says they have several medicines ready:
[https://twitter.com/hhh05146721/status/1220953373622534145](https://twitter.com/hhh05146721/status/1220953373622534145)

[1]
[https://thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(...](https://thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736\(20\)30154-9/fulltext)

[2]
[https://thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(...](https://thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736\(20\)30183-5/fulltext)

[3]
[https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1](https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1)

~~~
secondo
I don’t know if you do this intentionally or if Hanlon’s razor, but you
intermix source backed claims with made up ones. Nature does not claim the
mortality rate is 11%. They do make a comparison to SARS’ mortality rate which
was about 11% and argue that Wuhan coronavirus is lower in that regard[1].

[1]
[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00166-6](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00166-6)

~~~
mrb
You are right, I misremembered Nature's video
([https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00209-y](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00209-y)
claimed SARS, not nCoV-2019, had an 11% mortality rate.) I edited the comment.

------
nopinsight
Neil Ferguson, an epidemologist at Imperial College, suggested that the 2019
novel coronavirus’ Basic Reproduction Number (R0) [1] is about 2.5, which
aligns with figures from other research groups. The 1918 pandemic-causing
flu’s R0 was between 2 and 3 [1] while seasonal flu’s figure is only 1.3 [2].

This is not to say everyone should panic as the strict containment policy that
China and the Chinese adopted should help reduce the R0 significantly.
However, the asymptomatic period is long, thus it remains to be seen what the
full impact of this virus will be.

Other countries may need a better policy to track high-risk individuals
already in their territories.

“Neil_ferguson @neil_ferguson

R0 estimates for flu pandemics lie in the 1.5-2.5 range. Yes, Measles is much
higher (10-15). An epidemic with an R0 of 2.5 could still infect between 60%
and 90% of the population, depending on contact patterns and assuming no prior
immunity. Not all might be symptomatic though.”

[https://mobile.twitter.com/neil_ferguson/with_replies](https://mobile.twitter.com/neil_ferguson/with_replies)

[1]
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number)

[2] [https://www.newscientist.com/article/2231333-what-are-the-
sy...](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2231333-what-are-the-symptoms-of-
the-new-coronavirus-and-how-deadly-is-it/)

~~~
philliphaydon
> as the strict containment policy that China adopted should help reduce the
> R0 significantly

What strict containment policy?

~~~
nopinsight
Quarantine of 12 cities and 35 million residents. Suspension of tour groups
out of the whole country.

What more can you do?

[https://qz.com/1790891/china-expands-quarantine-
to-12-cities...](https://qz.com/1790891/china-expands-quarantine-to-12-cities-
and-35-million-residents/)

[https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/25/world/asia/china-
coronavi...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/25/world/asia/china-
coronavirus.html)

~~~
philliphaydon
They quarantined Wuhan, and announced it 8 hours before they did it, they
estimated 200k people left Wuhan in a rush. Yet people are still entering and
exiting Wuhan for CNY. So as far as I'm concerned this quarantine is just
political face.

~~~
nopinsight
That is still 98% quarantine rate and should significantly reduce the chance
the infection will establish in other cities.

------
DevX101
I'm bordering on conspiracy theory territory here, but I'd also like an real
investigation into whether the virus actually originated from the Wuhan
Biosafety Laboratory. It's the only level 4 (BSL-4 highest rating) lab in all
of China designated to handle the most dangerous pathogens. And it's located
20 miles from the reported epicenter in the wildlife market. It was first
opened two years ago and at the time multiple scientists worried that the lack
of an open culture could lead to potential security problems.

Was there some breach in containment security? Were experimented animals not
disposed of properly? We don't know.

There might be nothing here, but it's a hell of a coincidence and if there's
some broader security problem, it should be acknowledged and fixed.

Background on the lab: [https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-
poised-to...](https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-
study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487)

~~~
neffy
I think it's a perfectly valid question, although the wildlife market is
equally valid on the evidence we have. We know that the Chinese Government is
hugely overreacting to public information at this point in time - terrible as
the published numbers are they are not that out of whack with a normal bad flu
epidemic, which also causes significantly higher death rates.

So it's either the actual death rates are higher (well, almost certainly),
and/or they know or suspect something more serious.

Bearing in mind too, that even China doesn't trust China on reporting -
witness the central committee order a few days ago to the regions to be
accurate with reports or else.

~~~
reaperducer
_We know that the Chinese Government is hugely overreacting_

Do we know that? All of the criticism I've seen has been of the government
under-reacting. In fact, in a speech yesterday Xi told the local authorities
that they weren't doing enough.

Non-Chinese estimates (as of 24 January) are that there's 6,000 people
infected vs. 1,300 from the Chinese government.

The 6,000 figure comes from the Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and
Socio-technical Systems at Northeastern University in Boston:
[https://www.mobs-lab.org/2019ncov.html](https://www.mobs-
lab.org/2019ncov.html)

~~~
adamiscool8
It seems like the local government under-reacted, and now the central
government is (hopefully) over-reacting.

------
leeshire
I don't understand why people eat monkey or bats? if they have all these virus
or diseases in them. It's 2020 we have more food in the world than we did
years ago no need to eat a bat just grab an apple.

~~~
Zod666
We're talking about a place where this is common practice.

[https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zrv78nG9R04&feature=youtu.be](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zrv78nG9R04&feature=youtu.be)

~~~
toomuchtodo
Supposedly the Chinese government is paying for the output from this
sewage/gutter oil process (for combustion in power plants) in order to prevent
it from ending up in the food supply chain as cooking oil. Attempts at being
resourceful can have some unintended consequences/second order effects.

[https://www.reddit.com/r/videos/comments/et981n/this_is_how_...](https://www.reddit.com/r/videos/comments/et981n/this_is_how_chinese_recycle_sewage_oil_into/fff8d1o/)

------
reaperducer
For those of you into charts and graphs, here's a little tool from a reputable
source that shows the risk of each country getting a case:

[https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/e693c1f9-13fa-42...](https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/e693c1f9-13fa-42f6-86e6-c637b159a742/page/CIXCB)

------
MichaelRazum
Let's assume the worst-case scenario. It has a high mortality rate and is
spreading with a high reinfection rate. Other cities will lock off shortly
like in china. What are the steps to survive? How do you think the world will
react? Will this lead to collapse? At least in the first step for tourism.

------
blackrock
A recent Time article [1] is theorizing that the source may come from wet
markets.

It also theorized that the source of the SARS virus might have originated from
an infected cat. And Ebola may have originated from infected bat feces, that
might have landed on a girl’s toy, which she then put into her mouth. And the
MERS virus in the Middle East may have come from an infected camel.

This appears to be a logical and scientific deduction.

So for this Coronavirus, it appears to follow the same pattern. Infected
animal feces mutated into some virus, that made the transmission to humans.

My theory, is that perhaps an infected animal’s feces, may have mixed with
other fluids, like blood, from freshly slaughtered animals, and mutated into
something that infected a human with a weakened immune system (easy target),
who then transmitted it to other healthy humans by contact.

On one hand, it does seem that the best way to guarantee that you’re sourcing
your meat from a fresh and healthy animal, is to pick the animal that you
want, and to slaughter it on the spot. This means that the meat vendor does
not have to maintain a refrigeration system, and you don’t introduce other
chemicals or salts to preserve your meat.

But the problem is that you have to keep the animals in captivity, and the
meat vendor must handle, and clean all their urine and feces. And when animals
get sick, their feces and urine gets infected, thus you increase the
probability of an outbreak like this.

What’s the solution? Maybe China must begin eliminating wet markets, and
eliminate the practice of keeping live animals in captivity, in order to
minimize the incubation, mutation, and the transmission of such viruses. And
instead, to begin using a refrigeration system, to preserve slaughtered
animals.

[1] [https://time.com/5770904/wuhan-coronavirus-wild-
animals/](https://time.com/5770904/wuhan-coronavirus-wild-animals/)

------
fulldecent2
The official name for this is 2019-nCoV.

And for Twitter that is #2019nCoV.

Using the correct name (or including it in parenthesis somewhere) is a way to
help your publications stay connected to the wider discussion.

------
jamesblonde
According to a former Harvard public health researcher, the Wuhan coronavirus
has a R0 value of 3.8. That is significantly higher than SARS (estimated at
between 2-4). This means is will spread rapidly unless transport in/out of
Wuhan is completely stopped:

[https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1220919589623803905.html](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1220919589623803905.html)

~~~
SubiculumCode
That 3.8 may have since been revised downward....looking for the link again.

~~~
jamesblonde
Different research groups are providing different estimates. But the estimates
of estimates (model averaging) indicates that this epidemic has a good chance
of sweeping the globe. Containment is needed to prevent it sweeping the globe,
so we are at the mercy of the Chinese authorities...

~~~
Fomite
My group's estimated R0 for MERS was very securely in the same ballpark.
There's a lot more needed for "sweeping the globe" than a single R0
measurement in a single context (R0 isn't actually a biological constant,
despite people treating it like it is).

------
ageofwant
I get a fair number of mail and packages from China, living in Australia. Some
virus' can survive quite a while on non-porous surfaces like plastic,
especially if the contents itsef is contaminated.

I now open packages outside of the house and spray the contents down with
alkohol.

Yea keep those sneaky vectors in mind.

------
ngcc_hk
Very strange. Given HK is the 2nd most affected (and most affected last time)
why it was not mentioned.

As regards to the source we really hoped it is not from the lab in Wu han, one
of the few la e in the world with category 4 lab handling sars etc.

------
ngcc_hk
Latest figure is 56 death out of 1900. About 3%. Not high but that is the
problem. The spread and low death rate meant widespread. Hope closing the
cities would work.

------
inred9
the darkest time of coronavirus crisis is over，[https://wubigo.com/post/the-
darkest-time-of-coronavirus-cris...](https://wubigo.com/post/the-darkest-time-
of-coronavirus-crisis-is-over/)

------
seanmcdirmid
What exacerbates the spread of these viruses is the lack of indoor heating in
South China during the winter. I wonder how much china could reduce these
problems by just allowing people to heat their homes the way they do up north?

------
monkpit
Signup wall?

~~~
fnord77
not for me. maybe cookie based? try a private/incognito window

------
busymom0
Comparison between "Bat SARS-like coronavirus" and the "Wuhan seafood market
pneumonia virus" seems to show a 100% match:

[https://blast.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/Blast.cgi?RID=2PUA1EJK114&CMD...](https://blast.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/Blast.cgi?RID=2PUA1EJK114&CMD=Get)

Bat SARS-like coronavirus WIV1 has been known since at least 2013.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bat_SARS-
like_coronavirus_WIV1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bat_SARS-
like_coronavirus_WIV1)

In 2019, CBC reported "Canadian government scientist under investigation
trained staff at Level 4 lab in China"

> A Canadian government scientist at the National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg
> made at least five trips to China in 2017-18, including one to train
> scientists and technicians at China's newly certified Level 4 lab, which
> does research with the most deadly pathogens, according to travel documents
> obtained by CBC News.

> Xiangguo Qiu — who was escorted out of the Winnipeg lab in July amid an RCMP
> investigation into what's being described by Public Health Agency of Canada
> as a possible "policy breach" — was invited to go to the Wuhan National
> Biosafety Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences twice a year for two
> years, for up to two weeks each time.

[https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/national-
microbiolog...](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/national-microbiology-
lab-scientist-investigation-china-1.5307424)

> Canadian lab's shipment of Ebola, Henipah viruses to China raises questions.
> Shipment may be part of RCMP investigation into researchers evicted from
> National Microbiology Lab. Scientists at the National Microbiology Lab sent
> live Ebola and Henipah viruses to Beijing on an Air Canada flight March 31,
> and while the Public Health Agency of Canada says all federal policies were
> followed, there are questions about whether that shipment is part of an
> ongoing RCMP investigation. Ebola and Henipah are Level 4 pathogens, meaning
> they're some of the deadliest viruses in the world. They must be contained
> in a lab with the highest level of biosafety control, such as the one in
> Winnipeg.

[https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/ebola-henipah-
china-...](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/ebola-henipah-
china-1.5232674)

"Wuhan" is the center of this outbreak too. It's too much of a coincidence.

[https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/24/virus-
hit-w...](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/24/virus-hit-wuhan-
has-two-laboratories-linked-chines/)

> Mr. Shoham, now with the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar
> Ilan University in Israel, said the virology institute is the only declared
> site in China known as P4 for Pathogen Level 4, a status indicating it uses
> the strictest safety standards to prevent the spread of the most dangerous
> and exotic microbes being studied.

> The former Israeli military intelligence doctor also said suspicions were
> raised about the Wuhan Institute of Virology when a group of Chinese
> virologists working in Canada improperly sent samples to China of what he
> said were some of the deadliest viruses on earth, including the Ebola virus.
> In a July article in the journal Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses,
> Mr. Shoham said the Wuhan institute was one of four Chinese laboratories
> engaged in some aspects of the biological weapons development. He identified
> the secure Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory at the institute as engaged
> in research on the Ebola, Nipah, and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever
> viruses. The Wuhan virology institute is under the Chinese Academy of
> Sciences. But certain laboratories within it “have linkage with the PLA or
> BW-related elements within the Chinese defense establishment,” he said. In
> 1993, China declared a second facility, the Wuhan Institute of Biological
> Products, as one of eight biological warfare research facilities covered by
> the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) which China joined in 1985.

[https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7922379/Chinas-
la...](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7922379/Chinas-lab-studying-
SARS-Ebola-Wuhan-outbreaks-center.html)

> China built a lab to study SARS and Ebola in Wuhan - and US biosafety
> experts warned in 2017 that a virus could 'escape' the facility that's
> become key in fighting the outbreak

> The Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory is the only lab in China designated
> for studying dangerous pathogens like SARS and Ebola

> Ahead of its January 2018 opening, biosafety experts and scientists from the
> US expressed concerns that a virus could escape the lab

> In 2004, a SARS virus 'leaked' from a lab in Beijing

> Experts say the coronavirus that's infected more than 800 people mutated in
> animals and became capable of infecting humans at the Wuhan seafood market

> But a 2017 article warned of the unpredictability of lab animals that
> scientists at the Wuhan lab intended to inject with viruses

~~~
nneonneo
Sorry, this is wild speculation, not fact. The “100% match” you cited is for
_one protein_ (and a small one, at that - just 75 amino acids long) which
proves absolutely nothing (individual proteins can often be highly conserved -
and amino acid alignment doesn’t guarantee that the underlying genes are even
the same).

SARS and MERS, highly similar viruses which emerged over the last 20 years,
have a very similar emergence pattern to the new nCoV virus. Wuhan has a
seafood market which has been known to house animals other than seafood.
Initial cases were from those seafood markets. There’s quite literally no
evidence to suggest that the Wuhan lab had anything to do with this outbreak.

~~~
busymom0
> Wuhan lab had anything to do with this outbreak

The Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory is the only lab in China designated
for studying dangerous pathogens like SARS and Ebola. What are the chances of
coincidence that Wuhan is also the center of this current outbreak?

Maybe one of the lab animals somehow leaked and ended up in the food market.

~~~
hatenberg
Occams razor would posit that the presence of illegal food markets may be a
higher predictor of illnesses than a BSL4 lab

------
nodemaker
I'm surprised no one has commented on how unhealthy, unhygienic and to some
level immoral the consumption of genetically similar animals is. One more
reason we should only eat creatures very genetically dissimilar to us. Eating
bats, cows, rats, pigs etc will give you nasty results indeed because their
pathogens can attack you very easily as opposed to a fish. (Actually eating
undercooked fish can give you a nasty thing called liver flukes so even thats
not safe)

------
ggm
Is HN now part of the misinformation bubble? The paranoia, national agenda
anti China hate brigade are strong here.

Seriously, can people take a chill pill and stop spreading fud?

I read [https://promedmail.org](https://promedmail.org) and I'm waiting for
them to panic before I invoke contagion metaphors. It's way too early to state
the infection and mortality rates

------
tzs
Viruses are scary. My company switched to work at home maybe 18 months ago, so
I no longer am exposed to the viruses of my coworkers.

At the grocery stores at which I buy most of my food I use the self checkout,
so no interacting with humans there.

At McDonalds I order and pay at the kiosks, so no human interaction there
except when they hand me the bag with my food. At Burger King and Wendy's I do
order at the counter, so I am talking to another human who is maybe a meter or
so in front of me.

Every three months I have to pick up prescription re-fills so deal with a
human at the pharmacy, and perhaps stand in line there with other humans.

I live in a house in a low density neighborhood, with no other house nearer
than 40 meters, although my neighbors on one side have an RV in their front
yard that is only about 15 meters from me, with an older couple (their parents
presumably) living in it. No human interaction here other than occasionally
waving at someone walking their dog on the street in front of my house (about
20 meters away).

Yet I still get the occasional cold-like or flu-like illness in the winter.
Who is passing on these viruses to me?

~~~
mprev
Are you avoiding human contact because you are worried about infection?

~~~
tzs
I’m not avoiding human contact. I use the self checkout because it is faster,
not to avoid cashiers. Most of my social activities are online or solitary
because those are what I enjoy, not because other activities would involve in
person contact.

So when we switched to work at home, and so I was no longer in daily contact
with people with school children (a big factor in spreading viruses), I hoped
maybe it would mean much fewer colds and such.

