
The Bugs in Our Mindware - gbaygon
http://nautil.us/issue/24/error/the-bugs-in-our-mindware
======
mark-r
They lost me at the basketball story. The point would be valid if the scoring
baskets were uncorrelated events, but they're not - a player's physical and
mental state on the day of play will be similar for all of them, and different
than on another day.

Then immediately after he talks about the probability of dice rolls, without
realizing that rolling a 7 is much more likely than rolling a 2 if you're
using a pair of dice.

~~~
xixi77
And immediately follows that with an example where "four hits is no less
likely to happen by chance than two hits and two misses or three hits and one
miss" (perhaps if he said "two hits followed by two misses", but that would
make no sense in the context, so I think he meant exactly what he wrote, i.e.
that having 2 hits out of 4 is as likely as having 4 out of 4.)

Honestly, this is just ridiculous.

------
ultramancool
Why does this site show up so much on HN? It seems to be the same few pop-
science topics repeated and stretched out in new ways with questionable
studies and whatever flimsy thing they can use to grab attention with a new
headline.

~~~
dang
Most of the comparable sites are penalized * on HN, but Nautilus isn't because
we had the impression that their articles were of higher quality. Wrong?

* This penalty doesn't prevent stories from making the front page, it just requires more votes to do it, or a moderator to waive the penalty. It's the solution we came up with for media websites that put out reams of fluff but also the occasional solid story.

~~~
xixi77
Well, I'm not sure about other articles, but this one is rather bad (for
example, as noted in some comments here, statistical examples are
fundamentally wrong, and they are being used to support a substantial part of
the argument).

------
grabcocque
Those are not bugs they're just um...

Look over there! _my brain runs away giggling_

It's always struck me that it's odd we don't teach kids how to think. Basic
literacy and numeracy, no problems. Basic thinkacy? Unthinkable.

~~~
DiabloD3
For years I've talked to people about getting basic logic skills taught in
school. Everyone looks at me like I have a number of heads between 1 and 3.

~~~
jacquesm
Let's hope they at least go for integers. Otherwise you're in real trouble...
Logic really should be taught in school, but it is not in the best interest of
the teachers to create an army of little lawyers that will then apply this new
skill to each and every decision made by the school. Schools prefer obedient
little children, not children that think for themselves.

~~~
DiabloD3
"I will volunteer to teach at this school," said Diablo, while cackling madly.

------
ingenter
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases)

------
lsy
The author doesn't seem to spend any time addressing "Umpire #3", whose views
would apply important caveats to the rest of the article.

