
Predictions as a Substitute for Reviews - luu
https://acesounderglass.com/2020/08/06/predictions-as-a-substitute-for-reviews/
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wildmanx
> Introduction

> There is a lot of praise for weekly reviews. [...]

What are you talking about? Reviews of what? Predictions for what?

I finished reading the "Introduction" completely clueless what this article is
about. I continued "Benefits", still not having a clue what the article is
about. After another paragraph I closed the tab.

Sorry, this article seems to be targeted at some niche audience, and I'm not
in it. It would be great to have some actual introduction to indicate what you
are talking about.

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k_sze
I didn't close the tab outright, but I agree that the author should be more
forthcoming about what exactly they are talking about.

The whole "weekly review" thing just absolutely lacks context. Like, are they
talking about the "weekly review" in the GTD methodology? Or in something like
Scrum? Or something else entirely?

~~~
k_sze
So I left a comment on that blog and the author replied that the "weekly
review" is the one in GTD.

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kqr
This feels like the sort of thing economists would latch on to: when in doubt,
either create an auction to find out more about preferences, or make it a
betting market to get a decent estimation.

It's also something I've read about recently, that we frequently make
decisions implicitly based on probabilities and expected values, only we very
rarely make these numbers explicit. If we did, we might act more rationally.

I like the idea of this a lot. I have trouble seeing how I would "get better"
at predicting stuff solely through this, but perhaps forcing myself to think
it through would be sufficient.

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jrib
> It's also something I've read about recently, that we frequently make
> decisions implicitly based on probabilities and expected values, only we
> very rarely make these numbers explicit. If we did, we might act more
> rationally.

Do you recall where? I'd be interested in reading it

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kqr
Most recently in _The Undercover Economist_ by Tim Harford.

I can't give a full recommendation because it's recent enough that I'm still
only about halfway through it, but overall it has been worth a read so far. (I
found some chapters dull -- in particular the bits about the 2008 financial
crisis have just not interested me -- but I have high hopes it will regain my
interest again in the rest of the chapters.)

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mola
If you decide against action because of your prediction, how can you evaluate
your decision/prediction?

~~~
unionpivo
You can't.

I use something similar to fix( work in progress ) my problem of having hard
time saying no to people and things.

So by having predictions you can cut down on your choices. Just seeing the
list with chances you have attributed to them it's sometimes enough to clarify
what will be best value for your time.

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m3kw9
Skip to the example section then read back up top. I couldn’t get anything
till I skipped to it

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exo762
On seeing the title my mind immediately jumped to _prediction_ markets as a
tool that should replace scientific papers' _reviews_. Which is a bad idea
because of tiny amount of specialists in any scientific field and resulting
minuscule size of potential prediction market.

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ahgx10
This is an advertisement fluff piece that links to some "prediction book" URL.

~~~
bschne
The prediction book site mentioned in the article is free to sign up for (with
no unusual info requested), and its code is open source (published on GitHub).
The article explains how the author uses said website within his
productivity-/time management habits.

What about it made you classify it as advertisement fluff?

~~~
ekianjo
You can just as well do it on paper or virtually anywhere. No point using such
a service.

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m3kw9
The value proposition of isn’t easily found or understood.

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rainpain
This is some real insight. The website is a bit unwieldy.

Would be keen on an app

