

When space weather attacks  - stevewillows
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/07/13/when-space-weather-attacks/

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brownbat
High-impact low frequency stuff is always hard to discuss, it always devolves
into two camps accusing each other of exaggerating or understating the danger.

One of the more productive approaches you can take to sidestep all that is to
look at mitigation strategies that help against other types of harm. So, sure,
putting every long line in a Faraday cage is probably a waste of money. But it
wouldn't be a bad idea to make sure there's some sort of ready supply of large
transformers.

The major transformers aren't just costly, they have a long lead time, and
there are a handful of unlikely events that can wipe a lot of them all at
once. (And some more likely events that take them out a few at a time.)

One complicating factor is that for every 10 transformers, there are probably
9 designs, you pretty much design these things from scratch each time.

Some manufacturers can repurpose pre-owned transformers... it's not cheap, but
it might be faster than building a new one from scratch. The biggest obstacle
to that approach is just knowing what's out there to be repurposed.

NERC's trying to maintain a spare equipment database to help the industry
figure that out, but it's voluntary, so it's not clear how comprehensive it
will be.

I thought there was a mobile transformer supply being maintained by the
industry too, but can't find reference to it at this time... maybe the spare
equipment database is as far as they've gotten.

NY Times coverage of a quick transformer replacement drill last year:
[http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/15/business/energy-
environmen...](http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/15/business/energy-
environment/electric-industry-runs-transformer-replacement-test.html?_r=0)

DOE paper on large power transformer replacement hurdles:
[http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/Large%20Power%20Transform...](http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/Large%20Power%20Transformer%20Study%20-%20June%202012_0.pdf)

NERC's outline for the spare equipment database:
[http://www.nerc.com/docs/pc/sedtf/SEDTF_Report_Draft_PC_Meet...](http://www.nerc.com/docs/pc/sedtf/SEDTF_Report_Draft_PC_Meeting_2.pdf)

If generators get knocked out, maybe get one of these Russian nuclear power
stations to float by and hook up to the grid:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_floating_nuclear_power_...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_floating_nuclear_power_station)

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ChuckMcM
This is the rub isn't it. If you are a public utility and you have a dozen
brand new transformers sitting in a warehouse you've never used, it can be
presented as a 'big scandal.'

That said, while the typical production of things like transformers is long
(since the manufacturer is optimizing for the maximum of the materials and
warehouse space) emergency manufacturing is "fast" (as in start today and in a
month we've got the raw materials, and 14 days later the first transformer
comes off the line and they keep coming as long as we feed them materials).

Will it impact everyone horribly? Sure. Will it be expensive and disruptive?
That too. But we have proven that given the incentive to do so, both the US
and Chinese manufacturing sectors can do extraordinary things.

So given that, nobody is willing to spend the money to look "prepared" if the
"event" isn't going to happen while they can still take credit for it.

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jrockway
"it could leave 20 million to 40 million people in the Northeast without power
— possibly for years"

Want to make a bet? If 20 million people are without power 2 years after a
"space weather event", then I lose the bet. Otherwise, I win. (Considering how
fast Cuomo was going to revoke the LIPA's charter because of their slow
repairs after Sandy, I'm guessing _someone_ will figure out how to replace a
few transformers quickly.)

As for the flight diversions, I read that as, "if we had better warnings, we
could just cancel the flight rather than use more fuel to stay within non-
skywave radio range". Great! (Why do they use HF, anyway, and not satellites?)

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jacoblyles
I've been reading over-the-top warnings about this kind of thing for more than
a decade. Hasn't happened yet. People have an overactive imagination for the
apocalyptic.

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stephengillie
Chicken little secretly _wants_ the sky to fall.

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jzs
I'm getting a bit fed up with US media. Calling a natural occurring phenomenon
an attack is just fear mongering. Is it time to bring out the tinfoil hats ?

That being said it's an interesting topic which certainly needs more research.
Some of us would certainly be without jobs if the power network went bust :)

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krapp
_Calling a natural occurring phenomenon an attack is just fear mongering._

You're being too literal. It's just a callback to the titles of old sci-fi and
action movies.

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stephengillie
Off-topic - Why is the top 1/3 of this page blank whitespace?

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mparlane
It's not for me.... check your adblock or extensions aren't filtering some
div?

