

What are your chances of getting into Congress, if you try? - BenjaminTodd
https://80000hours.org/2015/07/what-are-your-odds-of-getting-into-congress-if-you-try/

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ChuckMcM
Man this is a horrible article. I get that people think 'vote' -> 'elect' done
cycle but they really haven't thought it through and they have no idea how
things really work.

You don't just get 378,000 people to vote for you because you want to serve.
Why should they? They don't even know you and they sure as heck can't evaluate
your abilities.

As someone who decided to ask this question "for real" I can tell you the
process is straight forward, but time consuming.

Step one, run for city council or county supervisor. If you can't convince a
few hundred people to vote for you then you won't ever be able to convince
thousands to do so. And then serve your 1 - 2 years and get a feel for what it
takes to get things done. If you can't get anything done, or you can't resist
taking bribes, you should just decide it isn't for you.

But if you do survive, and you find that you can get energized by making a
difference then take on something a bit more controversial and make it happen.
Get a polluter sanctioned, right some long standing wrong, or just champion
some better ordinances that makes peoples lives better. Bottom line start
making a difference that people can see.

Do that enough (and it is not apparently a very high bar to jump over) and
then folks will start to come to you. Once you are starting to be effective
and people try to play you or coerce you into supporting their agendas, you
will get to see how well you are at dodging the slimier side of politics.

If you pass that test, you now have a whole city or county that knows what you
can do and what you stand for. You can try running for state representative or
congress (depending on how spread out your county is) Anna Eshoo for example,
my representative for a while jumped right from County Supervisor into
Congress.

All told its a 3 - 5 year process before you "graduate". And no, if you just
stick your name on the ballot (which you can do) you will probably not get
elected.

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robertwiblin
Dude I agree with what you're saying, and I don't think anything in the
article is suggesting that you just graduate from law school, stick your name
on a ballot and join some 1 in 40 lottery. The question is: if you do what
you're suggesting and take one of these routes into Congress, what are your
odds of doing so successfully?

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ChuckMcM
I was complaining about their methodology mostly. If you took the number of
people running for office who had previous political experience (which means
they had served in office) I would guess that there was a power log curve in
there. If they have served 5 or more years in another public office before
running for Congress I would expect they have a very solid chance to be
elected.

~~~
robertwiblin
Yeah, I wrote it. I agree with you completely - the post notes in passing that
being elected at a lower level is a very common route to getting elected to
Congress, and shows half of members did just that. Perhaps I should have
emphasised that more.

We currently advise people in their 20s so for them the question is more what
their first step should be, rather than what they should do once in their 30s.

