
Covid-19 Cases Are Rising, So Why Are Deaths Flatlining? - Jtsummers
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/why-covid-death-rate-down/613945/
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soganess
First of all, deaths are on the rise[1]. That said, if the populations for new
cases stays about where it is now, the relative rate for new cases vs deaths
will likely still be lower than we saw in the "first wave". This is because
the population of individuals getting covid now is skewed toward young people.
Think of it as a large group of individual that have a low risk of death
engaging in behavior that has a high risk of getting them infected.

[1]:[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

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joezydeco
"The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are
decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the
result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion. A
thread:"

[https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880](https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880)

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Jtsummers
Right, while not explicitly discussed in terms of Simpson's paradox, part of
the article does discuss things by breaking down the numbers between AZ/FL/TX
(current US hotspots) and the rest of the US.

Also, unless you are @mbeckett on Twitter, I'd recommend changing your comment
to be a quote as you've repeated their content verbatim.

~~~
joezydeco
Thanks for pointing that out.

