

Why video chat will never succeed, by David Foster Wallace - noahlt
http://kottke.org/10/06/david-foster-wallace-on-iphone-4s-facetime?repost=true

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riffraff
I still feel confused: is it only the western european UMTS bubble that makes
video calls from mobile seem like old news?

Most 3g operators have marketed (possibly low quality) video calls for a few
years in europe, with varying level of success, so there is not a real need to
speculate, we could just look at the numbers, no?

~~~
Tyrannosaurs
Is the issue not one of network effects?

Facetime and Skype don't require you to own a video phone to make and receive
calls, you can do it on a laptop or desktop either to people with video
phones, or to other computer users.

Most of the network marketed video calls have been phone to phone meaning the
number of people you can call (which network effects tell us will have a
significant impact on uptake and popularity) is far far smaller.

So yes, you could pull the numbers, but it's not clear what they'd tell you
about the situation we find ourselves in now.

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marcocampos
Recently I watched a girl using sign language with another person via Facetime
and I though to myself "This shit is what technology is about." So, screw
this. Even if it doesn't succeed with everyone and everywhere it makes some
people's lives a lot easier.

~~~
juiceandjuice
Okay, here's the full lowdown on how deaf people communicate.

Currently, deaf people log somewhere close to 2 million VRS minutes a month.
These are services where they talk to a VI (video interpreter) to translate
sign language as they call somebody else. This is their native language, and I
assure you they prefer it more than any other mode of communication. Many of
them absolutely abhor TTY and often relate text messages with that. However
there are other services which piggy back off of AIM called IPRelay. This are
the only way to communicate on the go, so they are somewhat popular, but
nowhere near as popular as VRS.

Currently, the only real VRS solutions are point to point from their homes.
Some companies have tried to piggy back off of Facetime with little success,
largely due to constraints with the wifi and FCC regulations of logging
minutes (that's how they get paid)

In the coming months, Sorenson (previously the Sorenson in the Sorenson codec
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sorenson_codec>), the largest provider by far of
VRS services (more than a factor of 10) will start to unveil their full
onslaught of VRS communications to the deaf community. Deaf people will be
able to use VRS services on Android, iPhone, PCs and Macs. And not just on
wifi, the goal is deployment on 3G and 4G networks, the holy grail, especially
because wifi can get really tricky when users are behind firewalls.

What does it take for this deployment? Sorenson has a quality requirement of a
minimum of 12 fps and sub 1 second latency over 3G and 4G networks, but a goal
closer to 15fps. They've been able to meet their goals, and their video puts
Qik to shame.

Sprint is likely going to license Sorenson's technology because they also
provide some of their own branded VRS services.

So, will the hearing take to video chat? Maybe, maybe not. But the deaf will.
For the first time in their life they'll be able to call anyone from anywhere
you and I can, and talk to them in their native language, ASL.

I probably wouldn't have said any of this a month ago, but Sorenson started
pushing a video teaser for their nTouch brand, which is the brand name for
their entire solution (Mobile, PC, and TV based VRS systems)

~~~
jallmann
VRS vet here. Your email's not in your profile, can you get in touch with me?
Joshua dot allmann at gmail.

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motters
On the internet you are your own public relations agent, so I can imagine why
people wouldn't want to use video chat because I can think of reasons similar
to those described why I wouldn't want to video chat frequently. Video gives
out many more cues than audio only, or mere text, and if you're doing anything
in a professional capacity via the internet you might not want the person
you're communicating with to be able to easily obtain lots of incidental
information about your life. This will apply even moreso as jobs are
outsourced to poorer areas of the world.

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anthony_franco
There are different forms of communication depending on the type of
relationship you have with a person. Using the author's logic, email/texting
would be the only form of communication we'd use since it solves the "stress"
and "vanity" problem better than even telephones. But that's not the case.

Email/texting with acquaintances. Telephone with friends. And video chat with
close friends/family. We use the level of interaction commensurate with the
relationship at hand since at the end of the day we still yearn for that real
connection with other humans.

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bajsejohannes
Never is a strong word. People prefer to talk to each other face-to-face
rather than on opposite sides of a wall. For this reason video chat will
obviously succeed, once the technical solution is at a level where it is close
enough to the real thing. (Obvious current shortcoming: You don't look people
in the eye, but slightly below it).

Alternate title: "Why video chat on the iphone4 will not succeed". (Meta:
Should I flag the article because of this?)

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codeup
No you shouldn't flag the article because of this. The iPhone 4 is what
triggered Kottke's post but the point he's making is more general.

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kennywinker
This is so wrong. I imagine video cold-calling will be a faux pas for awhile
still, but many of my friends use video-skype on a daily basis.

"I've come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies:
1\. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and
is just a natural part of the way the world works. 2\. Anything that's
invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and
revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it. 3\. Anything invented
after you're thirty-five is against the natural order of things." — Douglas
Adams (The Salmon of Doubt: Hitchhiking the Galaxy One Last Time)

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djhworld
It's nice to see people on the other end though.

I moved away from my home city a few months ago and it's nice to be able to
chat to my parents via skype with webcams because we don't see each other as
often anymore.

~~~
motters
Communications with friends and family is the ideal application for video
chat.

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iwwr
Videochat failed because it tried to replace something the telephone was good
at and unique. However, it may work to mitigate the need to travel for face-
to-face meetings... or to uniquely provide common-space environments for
distributed offices. The second option would require large high-definition
screens and high-speed internet.

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MarkMc
Anybody who has has tried FaceTime with their kids, neices, nephews or
grandchildren knows how wrong this prediction is.

You can get an emotional response with video calling that the traditional
phone just cannot deliver - which is exactly what the Apple commercials drive
home.

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mcs
Video chat may never succeed, but video conferencing is live and kicking.

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juiceandjuice
The hearing can be so ignorant and short sighted.

Video chat is already succeeding: <http://www.sorensonvrs.com/>

~~~
jallmann
Hearing people do not communicate primarily through the visual modality.

~~~
juiceandjuice
My point is that deaf people log more than 2 million minutes a month of "video
chat" and that number is about to explode as mobile VRS services come online
in the next 3 months. (I worked for Sorenson communications recently)

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swiecki
Thanks for the interesting article. Readers should take care to notice that it
is dated summer of last year. It is still an interesting opinion.

~~~
igravious
Considering that David Foster Wallace killed himself in September 2008 it's
unlikely that he recently made these predictions. The article claims that the
thinking comes from Wallace's (critically acclaimed) novel Infinite Jest which
you may note was published in _1996_ so the ideas date from the last century,
not from last year.

Nice write up by Jason Kottke.

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Foster_Wallace>

