
Ray Kurzweil: Why Solar Will Dominate Energy Within 12 Years - tim333
http://fortune.com/2016/04/16/ray-kurzweil-solar-will-dominate-energy-within-12-years/
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tim333
I know Kurzweil's a bit of a crank but thought the hypothesis that solar
output will double every two years interesting as a comparison to the recent
"Nuclear power is the fastest way to slash greenhouse gas emissions,
decarbonize" discussion
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19592771](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19592771)

I'd give better odds to an exponential take off of solar than a load of new
nukes.

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dv_dt
If you financially modeled the deployment of each: set aside the tech aspects
of solar and nuclear, and just take empirical data points and cost trends from
past solar and nuclear projects, modeling how the finances of each come
together as well as the pool of parties willing/able to finance projects, I
think you'd find the pure financial/project bandwidth available is several
orders magnitude higher for renewable than Nuclear.

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tim333
Certainly the trend has not been promising for nuclear:

>Nuclear’s share of global electricity production has fallen from 16.5 per
cent 20 years ago to barely 10 per cent today. (FT)

