
The Next Twenty Years: What Windows 8's Closed Distribution Means for Developers - doty
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/179420/
======
programminggeek
I wonder if MSFT will stop supporting SDK's that don't run through their store
long term. At some point will you only be able to write things that run on
Windows that go through the Windows store? It looks like Win RT is going to go
that route. I think it will be hard for MSFT to totally shut that down on
mainline Windows for a while, but longer term it might all look a lot like
walled garden distribution across all Windows.

I imagine that MSFT will have some kind of enterprise program where you can
run your own Windows Store Server to do enterprise deploys of Metro apps.

Either way, it looks like Linux might end up the one place where you can
install and run your own software over the long haul.

~~~
bradwestness
It's going to take a while, but they are definitely going to keep moving in
that direction. I think it's safe to expect future versions of Windows to
continually de-emphasize and virtualize the desktop (much like what they did
with DOS). Remember how they almost didn't release a version of Visual Studio
Express 2012 that could target the desktop?

~~~
silverbax88
If they do this - and they have always wanted to - it will open the door for
massive development on other platforms. I say this as a Microsoft developer.
After looking at what's coming, both in the mediocrity of the upcoming OS
releases and the push to put everything behind a MSFT wall, I've been actively
looking at whether we should be moving primarily to Linux.

~~~
bsphil
The only thing keeping me on Windows is the games. If Steam was on Linux with
a strong library to back it up, I'd switch right now.

~~~
SkyMarshal
Games, document formats, workforce familiarity, and pre-existing
infrastructure (Exchange, bureaucratic corporate IT depts, etc).

Still a fairly large hurdle to overcome, but I'm hoping Valve can at least
break down the games one.

~~~
gizmo686
Document formats don't seem to be a problem any more. Back when MS switched to
.docx people I knew continued using .doc to maintain compatibilty with old
versions. I actually got support for the 2007 formats before most of my
windows using friends. As long as you change your default file format to the
MS one, I don't think you'll run into issues on that front.

------
jiggy2011
I find it very impossible to believe that in 20 years there will be no "adult"
games available.

For one thing the XboX is a very closed platform run by Microsoft and there is
no lack of violent games available there. I imagine this part of the agreement
is simply an oversight that will be corrected in one form or another.

The only other possible way that this could play out if MS stubbornly don't
want to allow adult content on computers is that anybody who wants to play
games will switch to another platform, be it Android or Ubuntu or whatever.

The most likely dangerous thing that this could do for game developers would
be if MS took control of launch dates for third party games so that they
didn't clash with games they planned to heavily promote themselves or with
preferred partners.

So maybe if you're an Indie developer you can't launch a game during the Xmas
period if Halo 6 is due to come out or something like that.

~~~
bradwestness
Yeah, there's no way they don't make an exception for legitimate mature rated
games. The restrictions are just there so they have something they can point
to when they reject malware apps or apps that are blatantly promoting violence
or drug use or whatever.

They just released a Netflix app, and you can watch as many R-rated movies on
it as you like. You can certainly view adult content with any Metro-enabled
web browser. There's no way, as a corporation, that they're going to give up
the revenue stream that is mature rated PC games.

~~~
w1ntermute
> Yeah, there's no way they don't make an exception for legitimate mature
> rated games.

Why should they? They don't have any reason to allow mature games, which
certainly haven't been very common on consoles. It looks like PCs are headed
in the same direction. Chances are these sorts of products will simply follow
the path of least resistance and move to the web.

Edit: my bad, I'm not a big gamer, so I'm not familiar with the ratings
terminology. When I said "mature" games, I was referring to games with adult
content, not the games where you can shoot/kill people.

~~~
Arjuna
_"Why should they? They don't have any reason to allow mature games [...]"_

Can you elaborate on what you mean here? Microsoft publishes games that are
designated with the M (Mature) rating. For example, see the _Gears of War_
franchise, published by Microsoft Studios (formerly known as Microsoft Game
Studios).

"Microsoft and Epic Games today announced that the Xbox 360 exclusive sold
more than three million copies in its first week since release, cementing
"Gears 3" as the biggest game of 2011 and catapulting the franchise beyond one
billion dollars in lifetime sales." [1]

[1] [http://epicgames.com/news/gears-of-war-3-soars-past-three-
mi...](http://epicgames.com/news/gears-of-war-3-soars-past-three-million-in-
first-week-sales-propels-franchi/)

Edit: w1ntermute & freehunter: Thanks for the clarification!

~~~
freehunter
Either it's sarcasm or he's thinking about AO (Adults Only) and saying Mature
by mistake. AO is uncommon because no major console maker will let AO games on
their system and no major store will stock them. Mature games are the most
popular category of console games.

------
apetrovic
I don't get it.

Everyone is gushing about the post-pc era, Eric Schmidt announced a few days
ago that Microsoft is irrelevant, and the article takes for granted that
Microsoft and PC as we know it will survive for next 20 years, and Windows
will be dominant platform on PC?

If history teach us anything, it's that there's always some solution for the
problem. If Windows 8 marketplace turns to be too restrictive, game developers
will turn to Steam on Linux. And with enough gamers on Linux, Asus or Gigabyte
will not be pressed to make only "compatible with Windows 8" UEFI-locked
motherboards.

Or the consumers (and the gamers) will find Win8 marketplace acceptable. Or
maybe in five or ten years some other player will sweep the market.

Looking at the current technology and lamenting about the end of the world is
just plain stupid.

~~~
cryptoz
Yeah. This is the "extrapolate one technology, ignore everything else and base
your future on that" syndrome.

Star Trek did that with spaceships and AI. You can explore the galaxy way past
lightspeed, but your computer can't put up the shields to save your life
unless your captain yells "Shields!". Right.

~~~
krapp
To be fair (and a pedant) that was for the sake of melodrama. The computers
exploded in a shower of sparks during battle for the same reason. Rule of
cool.

------
cabirum
FUD.

Desktop apps don't have to be distributed through Windows Store. In fact they
can not. Windows Store contains only Metro UI apps, available for both tablets
and desktops. All the software and games and stuff are installed exactly the
same way as in other Windowses, without any restrictions implied by the
article. Steam isn't going anywhere, Skyrim, Mass Effect are not, either. The
problem does not exist.

~~~
s_tec
The article argues that Metro apps are the future, not desktop apps. If the
past is any guide to the future, desktop apps will be unacceptable to
consumers in 10 years time and completely unusable in 20 years time (based on
the MS-DOS to Windows transition).

Steam and other apps may work fine now, but what happens in 10 years? That is
the long-term issue this article is trying to bring up.

~~~
jiggy2011
I'm still a bit sceptical of this. Metro only allows you to work with one app
on the screen at a time and you have to hit start every time you want to
switch apps instead of a taskbar.

If people want to use their desktop computers in such a way, why didn't they
build the UI this way years ago?

~~~
sukuriant
In Metro mode, you can have an application running and another application
running on the side. [1]

[1] [http://www.digitaltrends.com/wp-
content/uploads/2012/03/wind...](http://www.digitaltrends.com/wp-
content/uploads/2012/03/windows-8-consumer-preview-flow-then-bing.jpg)

~~~
Karunamon
So 2 at a time. Meanwhile I have..

 _counts_

24 windows open across 9 different applications.

~~~
sukuriant
That you're looking at at the same time?

~~~
Karunamon
I've long since opened and closed things since last comment, but I've got lets
see.. 5 windows visible on my screen right now. This browser, a XenCenter
session, an IRC client, a script for that IRC client, and a miniaturized
iTunes.

2 is such an absurdly low limit as to be virtually useless.

------
keyboardP
I talked to the author about this article, but I don't buy some of what was
said. I wrote up a rebuttal
([http://digitalbalance.tumblr.com/post/33276814981/windows-8-...](http://digitalbalance.tumblr.com/post/33276814981/windows-8-is-
just-as-open-as-windows-7)) when the author originally posted it.

Basically, IMO, the article didn't really have hard facts and was mainly just
pushing slippery slope arguments. Whilst there's potential for this to become
a closed platform, there's no evidence that it will be. The DOS/Win 3.0
similarity doesn't work because Win 3.0 did not close off the platform at all.
There's been no precedence set on the desktop to close the platform off
completely and I doubt it'd do MS any favours to do such a thing, especially
when gamers will soon have Steam on Linux (which is the one thing stopping
some gamers from moving from Windows to Linux).

~~~
Maascamp
Not sure why you're being down voted, the very first sentence in the article
is quite a stretching of the truth.

~~~
keyboardP
The whole article came off a bit sensationalist (do people really believe
there won't be any 18+ games in the future on PC?). I agree that MS _could_
close the platform, I felt the article assumed that it already has and built
it up from there. I guess people disagree with me here and do feel that it's
closed :/

~~~
marshray
The point isn't whether or not there will be a PC or whether or not there will
be 18+ games on it.

The point is whether or not there Microsoft will be on the PC loading them. If
so, how does Microsoft get from A to B? How do developers deal with the
restrictions in the meantime?

~~~
keyboardP
I mentioned the 18+ games part to highlight the hyperbolic nature of the
article. It assumed, based on current guidelines , that Skyrim et al. would
not be allowed by MS. But that situation is quite absurd because it assumes
the guidelines will never change and that MS is willing to lose money on the
biggest gaming franchises.

Using extremes like this doesn't support an argument. There is no actual
evidence (i.e. non-hypothetical) in the article that MS plans on losing the
hardcore gamer demographic on the PC. I don't see any restrictions on
developers that haven't existed before. Developers can still program desktop
games and avoid the store, just like they've been doing all these years.

I feel there's this illusion where it's either the old, "open", Microsoft
business model or the closed down Apple model. There can be a middle area
where certain form factors, such as tablets, can benefit profit-wise from a
closed down system (iPad, WinRT) and other form factors, like the desktop, can
benefit from a dual system (ie consumers can opt for the store, or just
download like normal). This notion that MS has and will fully lock down all
their platforms seems unlikely to me personally.

~~~
marshray
> I don't see any restrictions on developers that haven't existed before.

A developer can't write a program that integrates with the preferred UI on the
latest version of Windows without conforming to an approval process.

This is indeed a huge change for 3rd party developers on the Microsoft
platform.

~~~
keyboardP
That comment you quoted was in the context of hardcore games. I doubt the next
Elder Scrolls planned on being a Metro-style app.

However, that's a fair comment regarding apps in general, and I agree with
that. But developers aren't being forced to use the store, so if they don't
want to meet market demands (if there is any - Metro with a mouse has had
mixed reviews), that's their choice. MS has never been in a position to
dictate this sort of choice before, so it's impossible for that type of
restriction to have occurred before.

------
pedalpete
With one anti-trust case behind them, and a loss (packaging IE as the only
browser for those to young to remember), a single access point for all
software would likely raise similar flags.

Apple can get away with it (or close to it) because they are still not the
dominant platform.

I suspect we'll get to a point where the App Store, Google Play and Microsoft
Store (not sure what Microsoft's is called) will be considered monopolizing
the sales channel and be decoupled forcing competition in the store space, or
allowing software to be installed without going through a store at all.

Thankfully we've got history on our side with installing apps from any source
being the default behavior.

------
leeoniya
In what way are Windows 8 app certification requirements written in stone? If
there are hundreds of millions to be made from changing some text, trust me,
those rules will fall faster than Felix Baumgartner.

~~~
bo1024
Sure, and if there _aren't_ hundreds of millions to be made in some area, the
rules for that area might not change.

The point is that we should be very unexcited about the walled garden approach
because it will exclude a lot of cool and fun and useful software. Even if
they make an exception for high-grossing software, the whole idea is still a
bad one.

~~~
potatolicious
Indeed. The concern isn't for AAA-level games or multi-billion dollar software
industries, they will find their way.

The problem is: how many billion-dollar markets are we nipping in the bud
_because_ we operate strictly in a walled garden?

~~~
Karunamon
That depends on how high the walls are, and the argument could be made they're
not very high at all. A minor entry fee, hardware (don't count this highly,
someone wanting to develop for platform x likely already has platform x), and
an approvals process that blocks mostly porn and malware (plus a few more edge
cases).

~~~
jiggy2011
What's wrong with porn? I know there will be plenty available through the
browser anyway but it seems odd for an OS vendor to be in a position to take a
puritan stance.

The problem with not allowing for 'edge cases' is that a lot of popular
software probably started as a weird 'edge case'.

~~~
finnw
> _...there will be plenty available through the browser anyway..._

Except there won't.

Imagine:

1\. No third-party browsers.

2\. No non-whitelisted sites viewable in the default browser (except maybe in
"legacy mode", meaning no scripts, no videos and the browser censors the
text.)

3\. If you're lucky, there will be an "adult mode", where you can access URLs
with adult content (but the "guardians" will be notified of each URL in real-
time, along with your name and address. Not the NSA, and not in secret, but
one of the filtering companies we know today. And everyone living in the same
street as you will get a "Warning! pervert in neighbourhood!" alert.)

~~~
Karunamon
1\. Not happening 2\. Not happening 3\. Not happening in your wildest
nightmares.

This isn't a cyberpunk movie.

------
maguay
The original article link, from the author's own blog:
<http://mollyrocket.com/casey/index.html>

(happens to be much more readable there, too)

------
onli
So the point of the article is that because of the bundling of windows store
and Metro UI, Windows will become a closed platform. Like with DOS, in some
versions the desktop UI will vanish.

If that would happen, GNU/Linux would be the biggest remaining open (biggest
free it is already) operating system. That would be a good thing. If Microsoft
really tries to control Windows-Apps that much that they ban popular games,
they probably will kill Windows and games will adapt to Linux. Fine with me.

But it doesn't have to come that way. The comparison to DOS is probably
flawed. The new UI is, as far as i understood without being a windows
developer, just an UI (with maybe a new API). The classical desktop is not
like DOS an operating system Windows has to evolve from. Though it's quite
possible that they might try to kill it sometime, it is not the same technical
cause like the move away from DOS.

Anyway, before declaring Windows dead, let's wait how well Windows 8 sells and
how many will use the new UI and the Windows store.

~~~
AimHere
>If that would happen, GNU/Linux would be the biggest remaining open (biggest
free it is already) operating system.

OSX and Android are both open and both have larger install-bases than
GNU/Linux. Linux is fourth in the pecking order of open operating systems, or
third if you only mean desktop computers.

>Though it's quite possible that they might try to kill it sometime, it is not
the same technical cause like the move away from DOS.

It's not about any technical cause. The argument is that users will flock
towards the new method of interacting with computers, the same way they went
headlong towards the windows/mouse/icon thing and the developers will be
forced to follow suit, and thereby become slaved to Microsoft (or
alternatively, run off and join the GNU/Linux/Android circus).

The users didn't care whether DOS was an operating system or Windows 95 was
just a shell on DOS 6 point whatever. They just wanted to be able to run their
mission-critical applications like Word and Excel and Solitaire without having
to learn and then invoke inscrutable command line incantations like 'DIR' and
'FORMAT A:' and 'ECHO c:\XCOM\XCOM.EXE > c:\AUTOEXEC.BAT'.

Microsoft thinks the same thing is going to happen with our Brave New
Tabletized World; they'll keep the old desktop-style around as a legacy, but
they'll exert control over anything touchscreeny, and let nature take it's
course.

~~~
onli
OSX isn't even targeted for normal PCs and afaik not easily installable. And
it has means in place to close the system, see
<https://developer.apple.com/resources/developer-id/> and the consequences.
And yes, obviously talking about desktop-systems here, so Android is not
fitting (and in this context subset of Linux anyway).

And I still think the different technical situation influences the situation,
it is not only about the UI (and the jump not as big as the jump away from
DOS).

------
freehunter
> And these are just some of the features in this version of Windows. Who
> knows what new features Microsoft will add in future versions that will make
> desktop apps even less able to compete with native apps?

Slippery slopes are fun to think about, but are difficult to form a logical
and rational argument with. You can't base decisions on a slippery slope. All
we have are the facts currently available today.

Today we have one version of Windows being sold. Next week we'll have three
(Windows 7, Windows 8, Windows RT)! What if the week after that we end up with
six versions of Windows?!

~~~
fghh45sdfhr3
_You can't base decisions on a slippery slope. All we have are the facts
currently available today._

This kind of thinking is essential for a court system. That's why we say that
_justice is blind_. But if you are not in the middle of a lawsuit, you should
not use this type of thinking.

Thinking about trends and creating testable theories is essential for polity
planing. You can't prepare for the future if you don't make projections about
it.

~~~
freehunter
But this same line of thinking can be extrapolated on any system. OSX has a
software store! Sure they let you install third party software now, but who
knows what other restrictions they'll put on it later? Linux systems have
software repositories! Sure they let you install software outside of these
repos, but who knows what kind of restrictions they'll put on it later? The
new version of my laptop doesn't have a floppy drive! Sure there's a DVD drive
and USB, but who knows what other ports they're going to remove?

It's been a year since Microsoft announced Windows 8's restrictions. That's a
pretty darn good run-up time, industry-wide. If/when they do put in some new
restrictions, it's not going to be sprung on anyone overnight. All these
articles are doing is spreading fear, uncertainty, and doubt about something
that may or may not come to pass.

~~~
jiggy2011
Well it can be wise (if a little gloomy) to think about the worst case
scenario. I remember people having the same worries about OS X anyway.

At least with Linux you have multiple distributions and the source code
available so if you don't like a particular decision it can just be forked.

The article is talking more about 20 years down the line.

------
mark_l_watson
What about open source software? How about applications we might write for
ourselves?

OS X Mountain Lion is a little fussy about apps from the Internet that did not
come from the APple App Store, but it is easy enough to override this default
on an app by app basis.

I would hope that Microsoft would also allow users to override this
restriction. e.g., installing Emacs.

------
nilsbunger
How come I could install chrome and get a metro UI on windows 8, even though
it didn't go through Microsoft's store?

I keep reading that windows 8 distribution is limited to the ms store for apps
with metro UI , but that doesn't seem to be the case from my limited
experience.

Can anyone clarify?

~~~
gecko
_In general_ , Metro applications must go through Microsoft's app store.

There are three exceptions:

    
    
      1. You can add self-signed certificates and side-load.  This is actually quite
         easy for developers, but a no-go for most people;
      2. You can push corporate apps out to Windows 8 Enterprise devices; and finally,
         the way Chrome is doing this, which is
      3. Browsers are treated really, really specially.
    

Microsoft is still bound by the US anti-trust agreement to allow other
browsers on Intel computers. In order to facilitate that with the Metro
environment, on Intel-based Windows 8 computers _only_ (i.e., not Windows RT
tablets), _the DEFAULT browser may optionally provide a Metro interface, even
if that browser does not come through the Microsoft store._

It is this exception that Chrome (and, in beta, Firefox) is exploiting.

This trick _only_ works for browsers. And, further, the way it's implemented
is an insanely stupid horrible pain in the ass. I really like IE10 for tablet
browsing: it's very fast, it has outstanding touch support, and it's actually
a great rendering engine. On the other hand, you can pry Chrome out of my
cold, dead, festering corpse's fingers when I'm on Windows 8's desktop. So the
logical thing would be to use IE in Metro, and Chrome on the desktop.

But you know what? You can't sanely do that. Only the default browser gets to
live in Metro. And when I say default, I really mean default. If you set
Chrome as your default browser, then _you cannot launch Metro IE_ \--the ONLY
Metro browser you can launch is Chrome.

It's the little things like this that are making it REALLY hard for me to stay
a Windows 8 supporter. The more I use it, the more the little, idiotic things
like this are making me go crazy.

~~~
Karunamon
I ended up doing the self-sign-certificate-sideload thing to get a prerelease
leak of Skype for the Metro UI loaded. It was no harder than running a
provided batch file. Once someone sets up a simple application to handle this
(and you can bet they will), the whole "closed store" thing goes away.

~~~
Herring
Until next version of windows when it's completely locked down. Look, if
you're Microsoft & you want to own the entire platform like Apple, you can't
just lock it down from day 1. You need to slowly "educate" the users and
measure how much resistance there is to a gradual tightening of restrictions.
You do things like lower the price to increase adoption. In another 10 years
it might be completely normal, just like it's normal for people to post
personal stuff on facebook.

~~~
Karunamon
>Until next version of windows when it's completely locked down.

Excuse me while I go pick up my eyes that rolled across the office floor.

Please. This sort of slippery slope fearmongering belongs in a Gutmann
article, not a HN comment. It's BS when someone says it about Apple, and it's
BS when someone says it about Microsoft. There will always be a need for
general purpose computers that can run anything.

------
nissimk
is there really no way to "side-load?" According to this, that will be enabled
in the Server and Enterprise editions:

[http://stackoverflow.com/questions/12008252/sideloading-
apps...](http://stackoverflow.com/questions/12008252/sideloading-apps-on-
windows-8-pro)

Between this and UEFI secure boot these guys are really messing up the PC
ecosystem.

~~~
freehunter
What about the UEFI secure boot is messing up the PC ecosystem? You're
referring to the widely-spread but extremely false rumor that secure boot is
turned on, can't be turned off, and Microsoft has to approve any other OS you
want to install?

Because that's not true. Secure boot is turned on, but for Windows 8
certification, it _must_ be able to be disabled by the user. Microsoft is
mandating that PC builders give you the option to disable secure boot. So I
don't see how this is changing really anything. Maybe you can explain.

~~~
marshray
Last I heard any manufacturer of an ARM device capable of running Windows RT
would be required to prevent the loading any other OSes via secure boot, or
the disabling of secure boot.

~~~
freehunter
But that's not messing up the PC ecosystem. PCs running Windows will be just
like PCs running Windows always have been. Tablets and other ARM devices will
be just like tablets and other ARM devices traditionally have been; the OS
that comes preinstalled is the OS you have. You've really never been able to
install, for example, Linux overtop of Windows on an ARM device before. The
status quo isn't changing.

The only exception to the ARM rule in recent years has been Android, in a
niche market, and only on some devices. That's not changing either.

~~~
marshray
> You've really never been able to install, for example, Linux overtop of
> Windows on an ARM device before.

Only because there's never been a port of Windows to ARM before.

If you want to claim locked-bootloader Windows RT devices represent a new
class of hardware like, say, the Kindle, then I guess we'll have to see how
they end up relating to the rest of the market.

------
bitwize
Windows 8 is the Oogieloves of operating systems: no one wants it, but that
doesn't stop its creator from pushing it hard.

~~~
mariusmg
Actually Win 8 is a great OS (from my personal point of view is Ms best OS so
far). So saying no one wants it it a stretch.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
I like Win 8, I work for Microsoft, but we will have to wait until its
released to see how the market accepts it (and pass judgement). So saying
either way is a bit early so far, its definitely a risky bet.

------
Spearchucker
In my opinion the only reason a closed system like Windows is still so
dominant is the open nature of it's software distribution. Close that and the
masses will move away. I write Windows apps purely because there are no
restrictions on distribution/deployment, and because of the huge user base.
When the status quo changes, I move.

------
ekyo777
is it legal to make an installer that would explicitly add a self-signed
certificate to be able to add the application?

 _assuming there would be a way to distribute that installer other than
microsoft's store_

------
hayksaakian
We shit on Microsoft for this but with iOS it's somehow OK?

------
cmccabe
Saying that closed software ecosystems are bad because they hurt games is like
saying the Nazis were bad because they made it harder to find good Jewish rye
bread. It's like... um... way to focus on the important stuff, Mr. Muratori.

