

Ask HN: how to tell when an idea is terrible or great? - BadassFractal

I've been ruminating for quite some time on this issue and can't seem to get anywhere with it, so I'm hoping you guys might throw in some interesting points of view I hadn't considered.<p>My peers and I have spent some time debating the worth of an idea a few of them had, and we're essentially in two different camps: some believe the idea is too complex, too vast and too risky for a team our size and with our expertise, others think the idea is the future and we should pursue it at all costs. According to this camp, even if we don't have the qualified manpower to execute on the idea, it's ok because once VCs take the bait, we'll have vast resources and hire a bunch of experts who will fill the vast gaps we currently have. Making smaller MVPs is also according to them impossible because it won't truly shine without all of the pieces in place, which is likely the work of several years.<p>This is the problem, on one hand you know that something like 90% of startups tank because they've bitten way more than they could chew, and were working on massive assumptions that didn't even bother validating. They're basically rolling the dice, and the odds are bad to say the least.
On the other hand, you don't want to be the grumpy conservative dude who doesn't want to take risks and cannot see a brilliant revolutionary idea when it's right in front of him. Yes, you have experience, you've seen projects fail over and over, you want to bootstrap and grow in predictable steps rather than making big leaps of faith. At the same time you suspect that if everybody around you was like you, nothing new would ever be done.<p>At this point I basically don't know how to address the issue. It seems like in these situations you have to rely on your gut and risk being wrong, or never know if that concept would have taken off. Even the trick of "asking 20 random people to see if all 20 are super excited about the idea before pursuing it" doesn't really help you if you're creating something that wasn't here before. The iPad was deemed foolish by most, only to become an unbelievably successful product. Also as I mentioned, if the team believes that Lean-style innovation accounting will be not applicable in your scenario, then you have one less way of answering questions early on.<p>Is there really no way to tell if an idea is brilliant or completely irresponsible? Any suggestions?
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DyumanBhatt
The VC taking the bait assumption is a bad one. They will look at the team you
have, and if you can't get the job done, they'll establish the terms in a way
they can push the founders out and replace them with a team that can get the
job done.

Can you convince a couple customers (businesses or consumers depending on your
project) to sign up for a pilot program? That is usually an easy way to tell
if it has merit and value. If you can convince a few of them to cut you a
check to be a part of it? Even better. Beyond anything else that will validate
if the product is of interest, and that your team can make the sales.

Reduce the concept to its core and eliminate all other features that are
unnecessary and see if that is within your means to develop.

If you can't get initial interest through a pilot program, or a prototype
built on your own it's probably not viable for your team.

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AznHisoka
If your chances of success relies on VC's taking the bait, it's probably a bad
idea... Why do you feel you need people to fill in the missing holes? This
should be an idea you feel you have the expertise and secret sauce to do
without any help (except peripheral help like a freelance, web designer, etc)

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steventruong
This.

EVERYONE (or at least a lot of people) thinks that once they get funding, that
means they'll be able to attract the _right_ talent that just knows what to
do. That is seldom true. If you can't attract talent to the team before
funding, getting funding won't change much other than being able to access a
bigger pool. And as many here can probably attest, attracting talent is
incredibly difficult as it is for many. Attracting specific talent if it
requires specialize in-depth knowledge in a particular area is even harder.
Don't rely on VC funding as if its the magic that makes your engine tick.

That said, I'm also extremely concerned by the fact that you refer to fund
raising as VC's taking the bait. They are an extension of your team and they
often play a much bigger role than just writing you guys a check. You should
reconsider this if that was the way you viewed VCs (angels too).

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paulhauggis
Do a small market test. Put up a one-page signup and try to gauge interest in
it.

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paulhauggis
uhh..this is a valid way to test an unsure idea. Not sure why I was down
voted....

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umenline
is there any way to do it free ? this one signup page .

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paulhauggis
Yeah. I recently found this service:

<http://launchrock.com/>

