
How Google's Android Could Finally Crush Apple's iPhone - ytNumbers
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/11/16/how-googles-android-could-finally-crush-apples-iph.aspx
======
jaxytee
>"Unless you're a techie or demand a larger display, Apple's iPhone will offer
the better experience"

Apple IPhone offers a better experience? Maybe for the author. I have Android
phones and an IPhone. I find the IPhone's lack of a back button counter
intuitive. I also cringe at the idea of using Apple Maps. I don't know why
these tech writers keep claiming the superiority of Apple's UX as an objective
truth.

~~~
Zigurd
For a lot of people. My mother is a happy OSX and iPhone user and I would not
think of putting a Windows or Linux OS in front of her. Lots of people want
Apple's certainty and level of customer service at Apple stores.

The price difference to have these benefits is a few hundred dollars. Easily
worth it to Apple's customers who dread spending hours on a problem with no
Genius Bar to fall back on.

Android scored spectactular wins with OEMs and carriers, and someone ought to
put a statue of Andy Rubin on horseback on the Google campus. But, much of
Android's rapid growth can be accounted for with products and markets where
Apple has not gone and in many cases does not want to go. Conversely the
winning strategies highlighted in the article will take many years to mature.

I could make a case that Google has bungled Android tablet marketing, and
should be much farther along in having an enterprise strategy based on
tablets.

None of this spells doom for iPhone.

~~~
StavrosK
I don't understand what these claims are supposed to show. My dad is a happy
Ubuntu and Android user and I wouldn't put OS X and an iPhone in front of him.
So what?

------
confluence
2 years too late, as the financial press usually is. Apple has already been
crushed. It was obvious to anyone paying attention in 2010 (cue market/profit
arguments in 3..2..1 - fanboys unite!).

Lessons learned:

Don't read the financial news if you want to have an edge. They know nothing.
In fact they are so far behind you can't even see them in the rearview mirror.

Secondly, if your product is a commodity, make sure that your software owns
all the price levels (see MSFT in the 80s).

Thirdly, if your monopoly is under attack, cut prices and flood the market
(see Standard Oil).

And finally only the paranoid survive. Everyone is out to take your money. Be
prepared and respond to the threat before it destroys you.

~~~
bane
It hasn't helped that Apple has been awkwardly late to the game in all the
major platform sizes as well. A year late with a small tablet (price corrected
now so it isn't cannibalizing profits), and still no larger format phone and
no phablet format...which both sell like hotcakes in the smartphone market.

It'd be like if Honda refused to make a mid-sized sedan and minivan and piled
all of their efforts into the Civic.

~~~
stephenr
Sell like Hotcakes? They sell reasonably well in one country - South Korea. In
the rest of the world they’re at 7%.

~~~
bane
I would argue that most android phones sold have larger than iPhone screens
and most phones sold globally are android phones.

~~~
stephenr
I was referencing “Phablets” specifically but if you want to talk larger in
general:

Just over half (55%) have larger screens, so 45% have the same or smaller
screens. Given that a large number of Android phones are effectively “feature
phones”, the “most phones are android” is meaningless.

~~~
bane
Again, keep moving goal posts. The upgrade path from a crappy Android phone is
likely to be to a better Android phone in most of the world where Android is
absolutely dominant. As those areas move up the socioeconomic ladders, Apple
has to fight an uphill battle to enter those markets and then gain market
share, instead of the consumers bringing the brand up with them.

~~~
stephenr
Average consumers don't necessarily understand that cheap android phones are
shit because they're cheap, why would you assume they will just buy another
android phone?

~~~
bane
Because if that's all that's available in their home market that's what
they'll buy. When a line of products becomes entrenched, trying to enter such
a market is tough. I'm not even talking about developing world markets. The
iPhone sells poorly in South Korea for example and it's not because Koreans
_like_ Samsung (most people in SK don't like Samsung).

iPhones should be an easy sell with an appearance oriented audience willing to
spend large sums of disposable income on imported expensive goods almost to
the point of insanity and bankruptcy, yet iPhones are so rare you can spend
days in the heart of Seoul and count the iPhones you see on one hand.

You ask the typical South Korean why they aren't snatching up iPhones? It's
the arguments I've already presented: too small, not enough features, etc.
They feel like they're buying a phone from 2 or 3 generations ago, not a
modern forward looking device.

------
bane
_could_? According to latest figures, at least globally, _is_.

[http://www.siliconrepublic.com/business/item/34832-android-t...](http://www.siliconrepublic.com/business/item/34832-android-
takes-more-than/)

"'We believe the absence of a large-screen device may have contributed to
Apple’s inability to grow share in the third quarter,' said Ryan Reith, IDC’s
Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker programme director."

Also notice the average selling price. Android phones are right in the middle
of the pricing pack, with iPhones sitting at more then double.

Basically, Apple makes phones that are too small and too expensive to win in
the global market.

In the U.S. market Apple is the #1 manufacturer, but iOS is the #2 platform by
marketshare - but holding steady (grow some quarters, lose some quarters) -
not a great place to be, but not terrible either.

[http://bgr.com/2013/08/06/us-smartphone-market-
share-q2-2013...](http://bgr.com/2013/08/06/us-smartphone-market-
share-q2-2013-nielsen/)

Samsung is _almost_ as profitable as Apple as well.

[http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/11/14/apple-samsung-
take...](http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/11/14/apple-samsung-take-
massive-109-of-mobile-industry-profits-while-competitors-lose-money)

iOS7 may be the beginning of a new approach for Apple. But they're going to
have to launch a larger phone in addition to the already well selling smaller
phone size. It's no surprised that analysts are expecting such a device the
next go around.

~~~
stephenr
> Basically, Apple makes phones that are too small and too expensive to win in
> the global market.

So, having profits higher than any other player in the smartphone market, with
just 14% of market share, is “losing” is it?

Samsung had to sell nearly 2.5x as many devices to make LESS profit than
Apple.

Google’s profit from Android is purely about eyeballs - what happens when
people realise that Google actively watching everything they do is even more
creepy than the NSA watching for what a small percentage of people are doing?

> iOS7 may be the beginning of a new approach for Apple. But they're going to
> have to launch a larger phone in addition to the already well selling
> smaller phone size.

So you admit that the current phone sells well, and Apple’s profit share shows
that it is immensely profitable, and yet somehow Apple “must” launch something
different?

As for the general concept of “phablets” - have you ever fucking seen someone
using one? It’s like the 21st century version of someone walking around with a
boom box on their shoulder.

~~~
bane
Your ever moving fanboy goalposts are cute but irrelevant in the long term.
Apple is quickly becoming irrelevant in the global market and needs to step it
up to compete strategically. The smartphone market moves fantastically quickly
because of all the competition. Apple brings some of the best competition
there is but is increasingly starting to look old fashioned even among non
fashionable demographics.

Things are starting to change. iOS7 is an important step forward from the very
dated looking predecessor. But the phone format, or more specifically, the
single small format smartphone they are currently leading with is not
sustainable in the direction the vast majority of the market is hearing. Mark
my words apple will offer a larger format phone within the next 2 years. They
have no choice... Or they will fade into unfashionable irrelevance.

~~~
stephenr
OK sure. Let me know when Tim Cook gives you a call for your words of wisdom.
Or, you know, doesn’t.

------
paul_f
Just bought a Nexus 5 and switched from Verizon to T-Mobile. (1) I now find
the pricing tactics of Verizon, where I had been a happy customer for years,
to be brutally anti-consumer.

(2) The Nexus 5 was $350. An iPhone 5S $650.

These are quite problematic for Apple.

~~~
matwood
Not only that, but after using my N5 and then using a 5S, the brand new 5S
feels old. My friends who have iPhones are moving away. The few that are left
are only holding on because their other Apple gear.

I was an original iPhone owner. For years Android phones _were_ second class
in hardware and OS. Android 4.0 fixed the OS. The N4 and now N5 have fixed the
hardware (and removed the carrier crap).

~~~
bane
In a moment of lucidity, a friend of mine, when asked why he was so
steadfastly sticking with his iPhone (which he was growing increasingly
frustrated with) answered "I've bought too much media through iTunes to throw
away."

------
matthewmacleod
Someone described the smartphone market in interesting terms to me yesterday:
both Apple and Google are winners. And I think that's true: Google have a
higher global marketshare, and Apple are making money hand over fist.

Apple aren't a stupid company. If they think there is a market for mobile
devices with larger screens, then they'll introduce an iPhone with a larger
screen. If they don't think that'll result in increased sales, then they
won't.

As it stands, both platforms are in a pretty good place. Do we really need
either of them to "win"?

~~~
bane
No, and it's definitely the consumers that win in the end in such a hot
competitive marketplace.

------
varelse
Downside: it's a Motley Fool article. Tomorrow they'll likely say exactly the
opposite and explain in gory detail exactly why IOS is poised to finally crush
Android. I've long since abandoned them.

Upside: They have a point about techies. I have an Ipad Air that crushes every
Android tablet I've ever owned w/r to usability (Nexus 7, Kindle Fire, Kindle
Fire HD, Galaxy 10.1 and yes I know they're all at least a year-old but all of
them became janky* within months of buying them and stayed that way). Despite
that, I'll probably buy a Nexus 5 when the contract for my Galaxy Nexus (a
phone Google abandoned like Sergei Brin abandons marriage) because I find the
presentation of information on Android more intuitive to me and I'll just
assume I need to buy a new phone every year going forward therefore no more
contracts.

*[http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Talk:janky](http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Talk:janky)

~~~
cwisecarver
Full disclosure: I'm a developer there.

The Motley Fool doesn't have one view on a stock. Each contributor, staff
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Both buys and sells are included so if a premium service changes their opinion
of a stock we let our members know.

------
coldcode
Or not. Wait until Samsung decides finally to abandon Android because they
can't stand basing their entire business on a US competitor's work. Also so
far Google is making very little on Android and on their own phones while
Samsung and Apple are making all the profits. Eventually these two forces will
force a change. Everyone wants to rule the world and every wants to be like
Apple and control everything. Expect an ugly split into three mostly
incompatible camps (plus Windows/Nokia as a minicamp). The dream of an "open"
mobile OS is a temporary period not long for this world.

------
dc2447
I want to love Android. I really, genuinely do.

I have tried and tried many times but three of my four issues are unresolved.

1\. Lagging (fixed I think) 2\. No good email client that supports Exchange[1]
3\. Plasticky build quality [2] 4\. Very, very weak keyboard input

[1] Plus having to encrypt SD card makes Android slower [2] Yes, HTC One is
better

~~~
bane
1) Lagging is still frustratingly there. Don't know if it's improved in the
latest version.

2) Most of my Android devices have come with a default mail app that works
perfectly with Exchange.

3) I've dropped my last 4 Android devices frequently and they've never broken
(not saying they won't, they do, but it takes a bit of gusto to do it). I
don't know a single iPhone user who hasn't had to replace their phone once a
generation because they dropped it and the glass broke.

4) Keyboard input is definitely not the problem on Android, there are more
keyboards available, and several are widely regarded as better than iOS's.
Swype like keyboarding, which I think the new default Google one has supported
for a while, is transformative.

~~~
donatzsky
1) Lag is mostly a thing of the past now, but depends a lot on the hardware.
My Nexus 4 rarely lags, whereas my Nexus 7 (2012) lags all the time. Some
poorly made apps can also cause lag (Facebook used to be pretty bad).

2) It works fine with Exchange, but is lacking in features. It has, however,
received a major overhaul in KitKat, so perhaps it's better now (haven't tried
it yet).

------
utopkara
First of all, I will short any stock you pick. It is always a good bet to
predict that a company will soon be in a downslide.

Secondly, your personal feelings about the iPhone UX doesn't matter.

And finally, despite the earlier "expert predictions", somehow Apple have been
posting record iPhone sales per quarter. Whoever these experts are, they such
at prediction. [https://www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/10/28Apple-Reports-
Fou...](https://www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/10/28Apple-Reports-Fourth-
Quarter-Results.html)

~~~
mcintyre1994
Apple are posting record sales every quarter because the smartphone market is
growing way faster (39.9% year-on-year) than Apple's share of the market is
declining (1.5% year-on-year).
[http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS24442013](http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS24442013)

~~~
Zigurd
The market share numbers are true, but only Apple and Samsung (some of which
is attributable to Samsung's unique vertical integration) have a significant
_share of profit_ from smartphones.

------
stephenr
Non american here. Can someone help me make sense of the premise for this
article?

By “month to month” is the author refering to a post-paid service (i.e. you
get a bill to pay at the end of each month, which may or may not be more than
your monthly minimum depending on usage), or “pre-paid/pay as you go” accounts
(where you buy “credit” or “top up" every month/when it runs out?)

The author suggests “month to month” is better value than the contracts to the
tune of $40/month, but I’ve never heard of any telecom anywhere offering worse
value for money on any kind of post-paid account, compared to a pre-paid/pay-
as-you-go account.

Im aware the majority of americans have long been suckling at the teat of
carried locked/carrier specific phones (i.e. pick your network then see what
phones are available) but is paying $600 vs paying $200 really _that_ much of
an inconvenience, if the difference is $40 a MONTH!?

Please, someone explain this crazy industry you have - I grew up in Australia
- when I got an iPhone 4, it was a small amount upfront, and the “device
payment” added about $10 or $15 a month (on a 2 year contract) to the monthly
cost - at that rate, the phone cost me about $400, for what was > $1K outright
purchase.

I’m now living in Thailand, where even _with_ a contract, smartphones are not
subsidised, but sometimes a slightly better contract (which can generally be
broken without penalty as I understand it) is available if you purchase a
phone via the telecom.

Can someone shed some light on the US sitation that this guy is talking about?

------
yalogin
Why is the freedom from carriers thought of a great advantage for consumers in
the US? There is no advantage as I see it. All the carriers have the same
price for a data plan. And more importantly it has only increased since the
iPhone's inception. Only T-Mobile because its desperate is offering $50 plans
now. And if the other carriers see it as an advantage they will offer it too.
But I would guess that once T-Mobile gains enough customers they will start
jacking up their rates again.

------
darkmirage
I like how there are two comments on the article right now:

Comment 1: "This has to be the stupidest article just to bash Apple which this
author continually does. I only read him to laugh at his misguided comments."

Comment 2: "Sam Mattera sounds like a gigantic Apple troll. Android is 1000x
times better looking and more useful than the Fisher Price looking Apple iOS."

You can never win...

~~~
trimbo
Motley Fool gets more clicks... Mission accomplished.

------
joelgrus
"Why would you ever buy an Android phone?"

He doesn't even mention the most important reason -- so that you never have to
use iTunes again!

~~~
paul_f
Until Apple makes a 5inch iPhone, they are simply too small for a large chunk
of the population.

~~~
_Simon
Bullshit.

