
Coronavirus infections predicted to grow exponentially;first death outside China - bookofjoe
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-coronavirus-live-updates/2020/02/02/090d75d8-453d-11ea-99c7-1dfd4241a2fe_story.html
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gus_massa
Note that exponential grow is the usual initial grow in a new illness in a
very connected population (like a city with 11 millions of habitants). Jumping
from a city to another city is more difficult to model, and it depends on how
easy is to detect the ill people and isolate them.

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bookofjoe
>They found that as many as 75,815 people in Wuhan had been infected with the
coronavirus by Jan. 25, based on an assumption that each infected person could
have passed the virus onto 2.68 others. It also said that epidemic was
doubling every 6.4 days.

