
Everything you need to know about Strategy in 6 mins- solving prisoner's dilemma - alexpatton
http://ozeanmedia.com/political-consulting/political-strategy-master-lesson-in-6-minutes/
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zissou
Despite this clip being a classic classroom example in a game theory course,
it's _technically_ not a prisoner's dilemma, for a couple reasons. First, in
the PD the players cannot communicate. The ability to communicate makes it
more of a signalling game since a player can say/do something to alter the
other players' beliefs about their type.

Secondly, in the PD both players have an incentive to defect from their
cooperative strategy (stay silent), which results in a Nash equilibrium where
both players are worse off. This is, after all, why the prisoner's dilemma is
so interesting -- by playing their dominant strategies, both players end up in
a worse situation.

In this clip, stealing is a weakly dominant strategy. That is, if I know the
other guy is going to steal, I can't be made any better or worse by changing
my choice to split or steal. If I know the other guy is splitting, then I of
course would want to steal (which is why splitting is an unstable strategy).

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diab0lic
Players cannot communicate in a prisoners dilemma, however the notion of a
Precommitment Strategy[0] is very real in game theory and the player in the
linked video is doing just that; committing to a strategy in advance of the
actual decision making.

[0]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precommitment](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precommitment)

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hcarvalhoalves
By telling his strategy (“100%, I’m going to steal”), the first player forced
the endgame he wanted. The second player had no option other than choose split
in the hope he gets something. If the first player had instead manifested his
interest in splitting, the second player would have no rational reason to
_not_ choosing to steal.

It's an interesting twist on the prisoner's dilemma, and the first player
played it accordingly.

Even more interesting is this other video, which shows how cooperation without
punishment doesn't work:

[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=flPaDwiqP_o#t=149](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=flPaDwiqP_o#t=149)

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cJ0th
Perhaps he had no rational reason to choose steal. But the actual issue is
this: Is the other guy trustworthy?

Now if the "guy who had no choice" can't help but label the other guy
untrustworthy because he has amazingly good people skills he could very well
consider stealing to take revenge.

btw: your video is interesting as well. I think the convo gave a pretty good
clue as to who was the honest one. I couldn't sense any real emotions in her.
He on the other hand came across almost desperate.

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jere
Certainly an intersting clip, but not an instance of prisoner's dilemma:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Balls#Split_or_Steal.3F](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Balls#Split_or_Steal.3F)

And it's a completely ridiculous claim that it's "everything you need to know
about strategy"...

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chacham15
As others have pointed out this is not a true prisoners dilemna. Nonetheless,
an interesting side-note is after saying that he was going to steal the whole
time, he had to choose split (under the assumption that he is acting as a team
player). This is because it would be inefficient if the other player chose
steal simply out of spite/distrust and the team walks away with nothing.

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wavesounds
So is this the guy that's advised the Republicans in congress to ruin our
country's credit rating as a bargaining maneuver with the stupid 'Debt Ceiling
Debate'?

"Alex Patton is a media & communications expert, Republican political
consultant"

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do-it-good
The Congress is a political puppet theater. The is no difference between
Republicans and Democrats, the same masters are pulling their strings.

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breakyerself
We've based an economy around a schizophrenics depraved game of chicken.
That's what all this shit boils down to.

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eli_gottlieb
A fair point. When trying to model what _human beings_ will do, and thus how
_human beings_ should strategize with respect to each-other, throwing out the
pro-social super-rational aspects of human psychology and devolving to the
sociopathic "logic" of a "rational agent" is a pretty dumb idea.

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mathattack
I like the original title _Political Strategy Master Session in 6 Minutes_
better than this one, but so be it.

Deeply understanding prisoner's dilemma helps explain a lot of office
politics. Why are people at software firms more willing to ruffle feathers
than at insurance companies? Because their prisoners dilemma games are
shorter. How do you make sure that someone doesn't reneg on a deal? Make sure
they see the game is longer than just 1.

It's not the be-all end all of strategy, but it's very interesting.

Further reading on coopetition:

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coopetition](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coopetition)

[http://www.amazon.com/Co-Opetition-Adam-M-
Brandenburger/dp/0...](http://www.amazon.com/Co-Opetition-Adam-M-
Brandenburger/dp/0385479506)

I hate the word co-opetition, because it's a much deeper topic than "Why can't
we all get along?" or "Why can't we manipulate each other into not competing?"
That said, it's worth understanding.

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alexpatton
As we all know, most illustrative game theory exercises are highly simplistic.
I should have been more careful in my language choice stating that this was a
variation of the classic prisoner's dilemma.

Why this is a master's lesson in strategy is two fold: 1) It cuts to the heart
of the matter that all strategy is based on credibility. One would just need
to look around at current events to see this play out. 2) It also illustrates
that making the punishment guaranteed and removing all doubt of
misunderstanding are essential.

Thanks all for the comments. As far as wavesounds, you jump to conclusions.

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thomasahle
In fact I don't think there's a reason for the second player not to trust the
"steal" guy. After all its a verbal contract with thousands of witnesses.

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tempestn
There's no way you could say a legally enforceable contract was formed in the
context of a game show where they're expected to potentially lie to each
other.

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moinvirani
This is absolutely brilliant! Thanks for sharing Alex.

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justin66
In addition to some of the other issues people have noted, it's mysterious
that someone would think the prisoner's dilemma is a "master lesson" in
political strategy. Probably more interesting and relevant would be a more
complicated example explaining why both strong and weak political players are
rewarded by voting in coalitions.

(I didn't watch the video)

