

The secret of the web (hint: it's a virtue) - yangyang42
http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2008/08/the-secret-of-t.html

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menloparkbum
The iPod was designed and manufactured in less than a year. It sold 125,000
units in the first month. That's his definition of a dud? Likewise, Google
went from being a stanford research project to the best search engine in less
than 3 years.

His premise is wrong and the article is an apologia for being slow. Every huge
success on the web, and in the computing/internet sector in general has been
the result of being better and faster than the competitors. 10 years is way
too long. If you haven't succeeded in 2-4 years you are doing something wrong.

 _The trap: sprint all day and run out of energy before the marathon even
starts._

Runners who _win_ marathons can run all day at a pace most people would
consider sprinting.

~~~
paul
By what year was Google a "huge success"? Do you realize that they started
working on it in 1996? (the company wasn't formed until late 98)

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menloparkbum
Google was a huge success by the time it went out of beta. I think this was
late 1999.

By 2004's IPO Google's success would be considered "the standard by which
success will be defined for the next 20 years" type of huge success rather
than merely another run-of-the-mill Silicon Valley $100M exit type of huge
success.

~~~
paul
By what metric was it a huge success in 1999? They had a good product, but
most people had never heard of the company. I remember having to explain that
it was "kind of like Yahoo, but with good search and none of the other
features", and they were always like, "well, good luck with that." (obviously
thinking to themselves, "another stupid .com")

~~~
netcan
I wonder if Google realised before adwords started growing like wildfire that
search was such a potentially powerful advertising platform.

I know that other pay per click & search marketing services were around and
were reasonably successful, but a lot of that was probably hard to seperate
from the bubble. I mean I don't think there were many plumbers advertising on
search in 99' & coca cola was never going to work.

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pistoriusp
This is actually similar to PG's "How Not to Die" essay:

<http://www.paulgraham.com/die.html>

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aneesh
From that essay: "It may take a while, but as long as you keep plugging away,
you'll win in the end. Both Blogger and Delicious did that. Both took years to
succeed. But both began with a core of fanatically devoted users, and all Evan
and Joshua had to do was grow that core incrementally."

As the saying goes, great minds ...

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michael_dorfman
Nice article, but what's the deal with the title? I mean, his point is that
patience is the secret of success-- the web doesn't really factor into his
argument at all....

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demallien
I think his point is that the web is no different from any other business,
even if it looks like things happen much faster, in reality you have to keep
working for a long time before things really go big.

Of course, I might be wrong :-)

~~~
Alex3917
Web or no web, the fastest way to become an overnight success is to put in ten
years of hard work.

~~~
jrockway
With enough coffee...

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hibrian
He makes an interesting/controversial point: "It still takes ten years to
become a success, web or no web." ... "Listen instead to your real customers,
to your vision and make something for the long haul."

I wonder how many people doing startups are prepared for success to take ten
years.

~~~
hooande
I've heard that it takes 10 years to achieve true mastery of any craft. He
said it took ten years to "become a success", but that isn't limited to just
one company. Personally, I plan on trying and failing as many times as
necessary over the next 10 years until I get to be really good.

~~~
stcredzero
10 years to achieve true mastery? Sounds about right. I've also often said it
takes 3 years to "get dangerous," in both senses. My data is from studying and
teaching music.

On an even shorter time frame: once you get to the point that you're enjoying
what you're doing, the only one who can stop you is yourself.

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richtaur
So this theory kind of screws over the popular startup mentality, right? A
friend of mine got $500k in financing for his startup, so he basically only
has a year. He can't afford to be patient...

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pius
I think the two views are compatible. The message I got from Seth here is to
take the broad, macroscopic view; if your first startup fails, don't quit, try
again. And again. And again, if need be. Be patient.

This essay was good, but I thought Ira Glass presented a related idea in a
much more powerful way here: <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hidvElQ0xE>.
Depending on where you are in your career/startup/creative life, this 5 minute
clip of Ira Glass could be the most important thing you watch all year.

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azharcs
I think this is very important for the entrepreneurs who say "I will make
millions and retire when i am 40". Once we start our business, it is really
impossible to retire unless we want to sell the business or go bankrupt. It is
a one way trip to Hell, which is Heaven is disguise.

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ericwan
So many people are focusing on the "10 years" thing. All he's actually saying
is it's gonna take longer than you think it will.

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13ren
_Listen instead ... to your vision_

