
Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf] - chollida1
http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/725970e6-eda5-47ab-96e1-422d4045f799
======
andrewmunsell
One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the
Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it
recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars.

Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger
network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many
places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having broken charging
stations. There's 4 ChargePoint stations in a garage near me that have been
broken and unmaintained for years, and they're out of warranty and the mall
doesn't have a financial incentive to fix them.

And then there's the DC fast chargers. I'm not aware of a single BEV (Volts or
other PHEVs are excluded here) that can travel across the US with a reasonable
route without worrying about finding chargers along the way. In fact, last
time I looked, there was no physical way I could do a road trip I've been
meaning to do through the western US in my i3 (my car, of course, has half the
battery range of a Bolt) because of a lack of chargers.

Tesla's Supercharger build out is extremely important to their future. Until
other companies step up and install DCFC stations everywhere (and figure out
the CCS vs CHAdeMO format war), Tesla is going to have a massive advantage.
Sure, not everyone is going to want to do a multi-thousand mile road trip, but
driving one of Tesla's cars might make them.

~~~
crwalker
How long do you think the current Supercharger network will be a large
competitive advantage?

I agree with Benedict Evan's point that electric charging will become a
commodity: [https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-
soft...](https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-software-and-
disruption)

~~~
olivermarks
Wouldn't it be awful if you could only buy Ford gasoline from Ford gas
stations? The lock in model is attractive until you think about broader
implication, I agree with Evans too that it will be a commodity race to the
bottom for recharging, with cost introduced for the power

~~~
Mongus
Tesla's aren't locked into using Tesla chargers. They do have a proprietary
connector on the vehicles but they come with several adapters including J1772.
Superchargers are a phenomenal perk, not a lock in.

~~~
saagarjha
Are Superchargers free to use by people who have not bought Teslas?

~~~
rconti
No, but the point is that this is not a reason Tesla won't succeed, it's just
a reason that superchargers suck for non-Tesla EV owners. From a business
standpoint, this is the right place to be; lock others out, but don't lock
your customers in.

~~~
Mongus
Exactly. I don't think Tesla would have anywhere near the sales they've had
without Superchargers. The other EV manufacturers need to figure out how to
offer something similar if they want any chance of competing.

------
kumarm
Congrats to Tesla and Musk. The numbers are just insane: "The electric car-
maker reported adjusted earnings of $2.90 per share on revenue of $6.82
billion, exceeding average analyst expectations of losses of 15 cents per
share on revenue of $6.32 billion."

~~~
Dwolb
Almost there but not out of the woods yet.

Good:

$1.3B cash from ops, $1B increase in receivables

Bad:

$2B current portion of debt coming due, $1.2B increase in payables

Still need stellar numbers (and cash) in Q4.

~~~
dragontamer
$2 Billion? I'm only aware of the $920 Million due in March 2019. Is there
another major bond worth discussing?

> $1.2B increase in payables

That's a yearly increase. $500M-ish increase between Q2 -> Q3. I think its
reasonable to expect payables to go up as they ramp up from 2000 M3/week to
4000 M3/week, but the number still gives me worry.

I think you're right to worry about these numbers. But its important to worry
about the CORRECT numbers.

~~~
btilly
Actually there are a lot of bonds outstanding

Per [http://ir.tesla.com/static-
files/6db4f56e-1532-4cd6-b8dc-3ff...](http://ir.tesla.com/static-
files/6db4f56e-1532-4cd6-b8dc-3ffbffe35e26) they have $230 million due in Nov
2018, $920 million due in March 2019, $560 million due in Nov 2019, $113
million due in Dec 2020, $1,380 million due March 2021, and $977.5 million due
in March 2022. Plus coupons on all of these payable regularly between now and
then.

By my count this totals $4.1805 billion. They claim to currently have $3
billion in cash and cash equivalents on hand. But there are various
outstanding liabilities.

Given a GAAP profit in the $300 million+ range this quarter, and a projected
European market twice the size of the American one, this may all be doable.
But it is still a balancing act.

~~~
dragontamer
A lot of companies have a lot of bonds out. Its not necessarily unhealthy to
keep some debt around, especially through the 2013 through 2017 timeframe when
interest rates were abnormally low.

Elon will have to roll over the debt somehow: either into stock offerings or
maybe into new bonds. The meager profits reported this quarter aren't anywhere
near the amount they need to pay off those debts... even if the profits grow
2x or 3x larger in Q4 and Q1-2019.

But, paying off some of those debts will put the company into a stronger
position.

~~~
btilly
According to financial theory, how you structure a company has no correlation
with its success. Therefore the kind of debt financing that Elon is using is
just fine.

Financial theory and reality tend to agree except in a crisis. Unfortunately
crises do tend to come along periodically. How TSLA weathers the next one will
be interesting to see.

~~~
soVeryTired
The Modigliani-Miller 'theorem' is dangerous nonsense. It proves a fact about
a model rather than a fact about the real world.

From Wikipedia " _The basic theorem states that in the absence of taxes,
bankruptcy costs, agency costs, and asymmetric information, and in an
efficient market, the value of a firm is unaffected by how that firm is
financed_ ". See anything wrong with this picture?

~~~
sah2ed
I agree with you that the grandparent misinterpreted the theorem as the
Wikipedia article includes something similar to your reply:

"These results might seem irrelevant (after all, none of the conditions are
met in the real world), but the theorem is still taught and studied because it
tells something very important. That is, capital structure matters precisely
because _one or more of these assumptions is violated_."

[0]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modigliani–Miller_theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modigliani–Miller_theorem)

~~~
soVeryTired
But it's already painfully obvious that one or more of the assumptions is
violated. That should only be surprising if you've spent years being
indoctrinated by academic finance or economics.

------
propman
Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars
sold in America. The electric revolution is here and it’s finally profitable!
Budget EVs with solid range are coming next year too with the 2019 leaf!

Convince congress to extend the federal tax rebate (no real increase in
spending just keeping what’s already there) by like 2 years which is just
maybe $1-2B more and electric will be the way to go for good!

~~~
antisthenes
What's just as amazing is that this whole revolution is done off the back of
the Li-Ion 18650/21700 battery cell.

Time will tell how good of a choice it is.

~~~
greglindahl
I recall reading many HN posters commenting that this cylindrical form factor
was a terrible choice for cars. Now several other carmakers have adopted it.

~~~
sliken
From an engineering perspective it's suboptimal since they have small surface
area relative to volume. That's probably why Telsa went with the 2170 instead
of the 26650, which has a larger diameter.

Despite this disadvantage the Telsa battery cost, power density, cost per kwh,
peak power, and longevity are unmatched. Especially as measure by real people
driving real cars on real roads.

So sure in theory batteries with more surface area would have greater package
efficiencies. So far nobody has managed to.

~~~
akira2501
> So sure in theory batteries with more surface area would have greater
> package efficiencies.

There's way more to a battery than just density; however, one of the things
that needs to be managed is the heat generated during charging. There might be
a case to be made for slightly suboptimal packaging strategies if it makes
cooling all those cells that much easier.

~~~
Gibbon1
I read an article that made the case that lithium of batteries are sensitive
to the direction of the heat gradient. Tried looking, can't find it. But the
upshot was you want the gradient parallel to the electrode layers not
perpendicular. Which means you want to remove the heat from the ends of the
cell.

~~~
ecpottinger
I can't find it either, but I remember reading it.

However,
[http://jes.ecsdl.org/content/163/9/A1846.full](http://jes.ecsdl.org/content/163/9/A1846.full)
points out some of the details.

~~~
Gibbon1
That actually I think is what I was looking for.

Money quote: For automotive applications where 80% capacity is considered end-
of-life, using tab cooling rather than surface cooling would therefore be
equivalent to extending the lifetime of a pack by 3 times, or reducing the
lifetime cost by 66%.

Meaning battery packs that last not 150,000 miles, but 450,000 miles.

------
dgritsko
This is a really, really big deal. They've still got a long way to go (as I'm
sure Musk would be the first person to admit), but turning a profit is no
small feat and should be applauded as such.

~~~
dragontamer
I dunno. Its not yet a yearly profit. Its a quarterly profit (which is good
for sure!!) but they're -$1.5 Billion from Q1 and Q2 so far. So they're likely
going to be very negative on this year.

~~~
706f6f70
Agree. A lot of the numbers seem suspicious as well, mostly in the expense
around salaries. Time will tell if these are sustainable.

~~~
dragontamer
The only thing suspicious to me is the number of executives who have left the
company in Q3. Why would they leave if the numbers were going to be good?

~~~
mrguyorama
I'm sure many executive level people simply got tired of Musk's antics

------
fossuser
I picked up a Model 3 performance about a month ago, I'd recommend anyone
interested in Tesla go visit a store and test drive one.

They're so far beyond anything anyone else is making.

~~~
nikofeyn
when i visited china, it was filled with electric cars from multiple
manufacturers, and the fit and finish was just as good if not better than
tesla. i don't view tesla as beyond anyone. when other car manufacturers enter
the market, tesla might have a hard time keeping up because other
manufacturers know how to build cars and not just an okay car with an electric
motor.

~~~
rconti
There are a number of reasons those cars aren't sold in the US, and inability
to pass any kind of safety standard is certainly going to be one of them.

Of course, the fact that our market is (probably) smaller than theirs with way
more red tape (including the aforementioned safety standards) doesn't hurt.

~~~
nikofeyn
those are all excuses that, in my opinion, causes one to ignore the progress
over there. it's dangerous thinking. do you really think that tesla is as safe
as other established car manufacturers? (i am aware of their "ratings", which
i find hard to believe.)

edit: and you can see my other reply or do a google search to see that china's
car manufacturing revolution, including their massive and unparalleled surge
into electric vehicles, is something one cannot simply write off. i don't know
why people like you hold your opinions in the face of the history of brands
like hyundai and kia. kia used to make terrible cars, but is now one of the
top auto manufacturers in terms of value, execution, and design. just take a
look at the new kia stinger and huge success of the optima model line.

~~~
SmellyGeekBoy
> i am aware of their "ratings", which i find hard to believe.

Is this common among the anti-Tesla crowd? I think you're the first crash
rating conspiracy theorist I've come across. If anything I'd assume that the
organisations doing the testing would be deeply connected with traditional car
manufacturers and that Tesla (as a newcomer) would actually be at a
disadvantage.

Perhaps you know something we don't?

~~~
Faark
Some of Tesla's statements regarding safety were apparently a bit exaggerated,
in the way advertising often hides fine print to tell you they are the
absolute best.

Non the less does Tesla seem focused on safety and I also haven't come across
credible reports finding them unsafe, as GP is implying.

~~~
nikofeyn
i didn't imply they were unsafe. i said i felt they weren't _as_ safe. for
example, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety rates the model s below
the kia optima, which was landed their top safety rating. i simply call into
question elon musk simply claiming they are the safest car ever and the fact
that everyone seems to buy into that. there are a lot of stories and examples
of hurried and amateur designs at tesla, including examples from teardowns of
the vehicles. i simply have a hard time believing that "the best ever" safety
emerges from such stressed processes at tesla.

------
paulpauper
Amazing how quickly things can change with Tesla. Just a month ago the sky
seemed to be falling, with constant negative press news about the SEC,
concerns over Elon Musk's mental health, Tesla losing money, and so on. Had
someone shorted Tesla just a week ago based on the media's pessimism, they
would be down 20%. of course, Tesla could face problems, but this was a really
solid earning report that dispels a lot of the gloom we have been seeing
lately.

~~~
nickik
The press, helped by Elon, started to ignore production when it really started
to do well. Funny how that happens.

Would have been interesting what would have happened if Elon hadn't fucked up.

~~~
lazyjones
It‘s not surprising that the reputation of the press is worsening when it
values drama around eccentric personalities higher than simple facts and
research.

------
jsight
I feel like the way that the press reports on corporate earnings in general is
in bad need of an overhaul. There is a lot of talk in here about "rare"
profits and the needs for financing, but little about why that might be the
case.

Does the reporter genuinely believe that a business like Tesla could be built
without doing those things? If you had to recreate Tesla from scratch
tomorrow, how much would it cost? And wouldn't you have even bigger loans and
debt than the business does?

There is just so much context that is not merely left out, but replaced with
confusion.

~~~
jacques_chester
I don't think anyone objects to Tesla taking on debt to finance its growth.
The thing is that if your debts are falling due and you don't have enough cash
to pay them, you will need to borrow money, sell shares or renegotiate the
debts. Your only other option is bankruptcy.

Elon Musk nailed his colours to the mast earlier in the year by saying Tesla
would not take on any new debt in 2018. And issuing shares has gotten a bit
less simple since his "taking Tesla private" tweet. Which leaves renegotiation
or bankruptcy. It remains to be seen whether creditors will renegotiate to
avoid the hassle of bankruptcy and the possibility of significant upside
through some kind of debt/equity deal. Or whether they will look at the $10Bn
of PPE on the assets side of the balance sheet and say "well we can probably
get $5Bn for that in a firesale to Toyota, Ford or GM and come out ahead".

------
40acres
Great numbers and congratulations to Tesla. If we as a country are going to
lessen our dependence on fossil fuels companies like Tesla will need to lead
the way.

Just a side note that Tesla received a ~$500m loan from the US government back
in 2009, which was paid back in 2013 (the loan went out to some other
automakers for electric vehicle R&D), and I believe the tax break on electric
cars are still valid. Tesla is a really nice example of there being a problem
that is both in the interest of the public and private sector to solve, and
those sectors working together to innovate.

~~~
mobilefriendly
The loan was a terrible deal for taxpayers. It enriched early Tesla equity
holders -- including foreign Mercedes-- at the public's expense. The govt was
taking on huge risk, the loan was vastly bigger than the company's revenues,
but taxpayers got no corresponding upside for that risk. A similar loan to
Fisker was a $139 million loss for the government.

~~~
b_tterc_p
Government and business aren’t known for considering externalities in their
decision making, but it seems noteworthy that the impact of the loan is not a
small return, but the survival of a successful electric car and battery
company. Would you be alright with providing equivalent money in grants to
produce this tech? Because I would argue loans to a business have a better
chance of reaching market successfully. Could they have gotten here without
that loan? Maybe. Could better terms have been arranged? Possibly. But I think
it was a praiseworthy investment nonetheless.

------
aphextron
Anyone paying any attention in the Bay Area over the last few months has known
what the Wall Street shorts and national media don't. Model 3 is an
unbelievably massive success. It went from zero on the road, to more common
than seeing a BMW 3 series in 6 months.

~~~
empath75
The bay area is a different planet from the rest of the world.

~~~
ecpottinger
I am in Ontario Canada, and I have seen a number of them here.

~~~
emptyfile
My country has no Tesla's registered. More anecdotes anyone?

~~~
olau
Due to lack of demand or lack of supply?

------
ChuckMcM
They have to be happy with those numbers, interesting question of whether they
continue to sell the S,X,3's and generate a pile of cash before they start
burning it on model Y development.

In general it should also muzzle a lot of the nay sayers, it isn't easy to lie
about money in the bank.

Solar City is a disappointment. I keep watching the solar roof tile business
to see if that goes anywhere. I'm getting close to putting in Powerwalls and
getting off the grid completely, the PG&E shenanigans are just that annoying
for grid tied solar systems.

~~~
dev_dull
Just a heads up. Make sure you get both solar and powerwall at the same time
if you don’t yet already have solar. I learned the hard way about the
additional cost associated with replacing the ac inverter.

Here we’re mandated by the city to be connected to the grid at ~$10 a month,
which (along with net metering) pretty much disincentives a powerwall.

~~~
ChuckMcM
I was early to the solar thing, I put in a 5kW system in 2002[1] and we've
replace one of the inverters when it failed with a single 6kW inverter. So any
Powerwall install is going to be either in addition to that, or as part of a
re-engineer to replace the panels with new panels that have more power for the
same footprint.

When you say 'mandated by the city' do you mean to say that you can't get a
permit to put up solar _unless_ you grid tie it? And if so does your power
company allow for an even 'watts in vs watts out' scheme?

[1] And yes it has paid for itself and is nominally cash flow positive at this
point.

------
Endama
My understanding is that the conditions inside of Tesla's manufacturing are
brutal. I have friends who work on the production side and they effectively
tell me corporate culture is driven by fear. I am definitely cheering Tesla on
for global warming reasons but I worry that Musk is running a Faustian bargain
that may bite him in the backside long term.

These numbers though are really exciting.

~~~
fossuser
I have friends that work there too and I've heard from some that they love it
and some that they didn't.

It's been enough of a spread that I suspect it's just normal "my manager is
bad" type of variety.

~~~
agumonkey
yeah, it was a big question around the 5000/week ramp up, but if nothing
cracked I guess everything is back to normal~.

------
shroom
Great news but I have to ask. Maybe someone here can share their view/opinion
about the market and what’s going on.

Musk can’t tweet about going private. So a major short seller sue him and
Tesla. Stock ”crash” during two months. Short seller completly turn around and
now long the stock which rises A DAY before this report?

Eyebrows should be raised so high everyone go bald. Where Will this end with
SEC? And How is this not manipulation from both sides?

Disclaimer: Sure I am a fan boy and we all ”knew” they were going to make a
profit soon. Great work and this is promising for the future!

~~~
compcoffee
This is called late economic cycle hysteria. No rules.

I've been through two of them, things get crazier.

~~~
dforrestwilson
How do you envision things getting crazier?

------
cagenut
such an amazing example of how reality and conventional wisdom on the internet
are so totally out of sync.

------
synaesthesisx
Amazing results - I am especially taking great pleasure in watching the shorts
get decimated.

The Model 3 is a game-changer for the masses. I walked past 6 of them just on
my way to get coffee this morning. We're truly witnessing the EV revolution.

~~~
threeseed
I will never understand why Tesla people are so obsessed with short sellers.

They exist for every company. And the majority of them would have hedged their
bets in some form so it's not like they are likely to lose substantial amounts
of money. Tesla almost seems to be similar to Trump in that they need a
fictitious enemy to distract the attention away from themselves.

~~~
mediaman
Everyone's got shorts, but Tesla's short position as percent of float is very
high, at almost 29%. GM, for example, is under 2%, and Ford around 3%. That
makes it a material point of discussion.

Second, yes, they are probably hedged. But usually they hedge against
correlated securities such as industry competitors so they can hedge away risk
they don't want to take (i.e., they have a position against Tesla, but no
position about car sales in general, so they hedge against the rest of the
industry to protect themselves against economic growth raising all car sales).
So if Tesla reports good numbers relative to the industry, it will absolutely
impact shorts and they are likely to lose substantial amounts of money. What
else would they be hedging with? Maybe their bonds, if you had some sort of
complicated capital structure arbitrage play, but I haven't seen much of a
case being made about the bonds being undervalued relative to equity.

Having said that, I think shorts play an important role in the economy to keep
companies honest.

~~~
FireBeyond
> Tesla's short position as percent of float is very high, at almost 29%. GM,
> for example, is under 2%, and Ford around 3%.

Auto comparisons are worthwhile, but equally valid are comparisons to
companies of a similar age, not just established stalwarts (for better or
worse).

------
iamgopal
Even the largest automakers of the world will be like bug hit by a windshield.
This is Nokia vs Apple all over again.

------
sidcool
This is massive for Tesla. I cannot imagine they have achieved this after the
tumultuous last few months. Tesla is bigger than Musk, that's the key to its
success. I agree that Musk's blind ambition and hubris has made this possible,
but now is a good time for Tesla to get a veteran COO to take things to the
next level.

Congrats Tesla. Your growth is a source of inspiration for me.

------
myth_buster
I wasn't following it closely but it does tickle me that the headline couple
of hours earlier was __Tesla stock skyrockets after legendary short seller
goes long__ [0].

[0] [https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stock-skyrockets-
aft...](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stock-skyrockets-after-
legendary-short-seller-goes-long-2018-10-23)

------
chollida1
One thing to consider that an analyst pointed out. Telsa has alot of net 60
and 90 and 120 day relationships with suppliers, but gets paid from car sales
much quicker. This means that they can "financially engineer" quarters to make
their cash flow look much better than it would if the payment periods were all
net 30.

Pre Close:

\- bit of a perfect storm for Tesla to make a profit

    
    
      - Model X ramp up spend is mostly done, Model Y ramp up spend hasn't really started yet.
    
      - Model Y ramp up could be $250 million/quarter drag 
    
      - Started selling dual motor Model X, more than single motor, (probalby push for more expensive cars first to try and get profitable)
    
      - this will mean we'll ahve to watch per car margins going forward as less profitable models are rolled out.
      

\- Solar weighing on results, Spent 2 Billion to buy Solar City, and assumed
alot of debt in the transaction

    
    
      - solar installations have fallen through the floor since then,  
    
      - Tesla is no longer largest solar company in the US
    
      - with multiple layoffs in Solar City division
      

\- The Model 3 outsold all but four sedans in the U.S. last quarter.

\- Tesla Junk Bonds trading at 86 cents on dollar, an 8% Yield, not too spicy,
probably means bond market expects to be paid off in cash not shares.

\- Good quote from car analyst "So Tesla going from 0% to 1% U.S. market share
and not profitable or cash-flow positive for the ytd -- `Yay, Tesla!' \-- but
let's not get crazy. This is still a niche brand building vehicles by hand in
a tent."

Numbers:

\- 3Q Adj EPS $2.90, Est. Loss/Shr 15c

\- 3Q revenue $6.82 billion, estimate $6.31 billion

\- 3Q capex $510.3 million, estimate $612.9 million

\- 3Q adj. automotive gross margin +25.5%, estimate +19.5% (BD

\- 3Q Free Cash Flow $881.0M, Est. $280.0M __holy shit that 's incredible __

\- Tesla has made money!!! net income of $300 million, now can they show that
they didn 't just cook the books for a quarter?

\- back to 3 Billion of cash in the bank

\- even without ZEV(Zero emission credits) Tesla would still be well into the
black

Misc:

\- 15 days of inventory, for Model 3, about a quarter of what other companies
have

\- building an average of 4,300 Model 3's per week

\- labour hours are down on the assembly line by 30%

\- little under 20% of Model 3 pre orders have cancelled

\- Musk said he wants to start producing cars in China next year, this is a
put up or shut-up situation as they've sat on the factory and done nothing
since announcing it.

\- China acceleration seems to be pretty darn Tariff driven

AutoPilot:

\- now on software upgrade 9.0, which can change lanes and exit highways on
its own.

~~~
gvhst
I take issue with your market share comment. You are referring to an installed
base of 1%.

Market share is a sales based number, which according to the document the
Model 3 is the number 1 selling car in America by revenue over the last
quarter.

~~~
rconti
I had the same question and ran the numbers in my head, but I don't think
that's accurate; there are 253m cars on the road in the US according to the
googles, they're nowhere near 1% installed base.

But it's also disingenuous to compare a single electric car from a single
carmaker to the entire body of every kind of passenger car for sale in the US.
At least compare ALL electric car sales to ALL gas car sales.

------
cs702
It appears Tesla shorts have _lost_.

* Free cash flow of $881M for the quarter equates to $3.5B annualized. Current market cap is around $50B, so Tesla is trading for $50B / $3.5B = 14.3x annualized free cash flow. Even if this figure is not sustainable in the short to medium term, Tesla no longer looks _that_ expensive.

* $3.0B of cash and cash equivalents at quarter-end, increasing by $731M during the quarter -- consistent with reported free cash flow. Tesla no longer seems to be facing a cash crunch in the near term.

Very impressive.

It remains to be seen whether this kind of profitability is sustainable,
especially as more competition enters the market for EVs... but for now, Musk,
his team, and his shareholders are looking like big winners.

~~~
kylec
Why is there this obsession with trying to defeat shorts in the Tesla
community? Every negative comment or story about Tesla or Elon is accused of
being fake news purpotrated by shorts. It’s really weird, I’ve never seen it
in any other community, and it doesn’t seem healthy.

~~~
drexlspivey
Because it is the most shorted stock in the history of the stock market.

~~~
RivieraKid
It's not, there are and were many other stocks with higher short/long ratios.

------
zaroth
Absolutely positively jaw dropping numbers. So much for predictions of
bankruptcy!

Hopefully this will give pause to the hate campaign, but for some reason I
think it’ll just make them scream louder.

Couldn’t be happier to be scheduled to take delivery of my Model 3 in 2.5
weeks. Should have bought shares too!

------
consumer451
For anyone interested, here is a link to the earnings call:
[https://edge.media-server.com/m6/p/omd73p8r](https://edge.media-
server.com/m6/p/omd73p8r)

------
rdl
It would be interesting if they bought Workhorse, the electric delivery drone
and pickup and van company. Low market cap, lots of good projects out, and
possibly complementary capabilities.

------
joering2
Congrats not only to Musk, but the whole team that pulled this off!

------
lechiffre10
NON-Gaap reports are a joke. Honestly, why are they still legal? All reports
should be GAAP. Accounting mechanics make it easy for non-gaap to show a
profit!

~~~
ddoolin
They give both in this report, and GAAP first, why the complaint?

------
hydroreadsstuff
The revenue for one quarter seems high. Did they carry over some sales from
the past or is there something it drawing from future quarters?

Edit: Congratz!

~~~
samfisher83
Well You can't count future sales as revenue. To recognize revenue you have to
deliver the product.

Here are the things from wikipedia:

    
    
        Risks and rewards have been transferred from the seller to the buyer
        The seller has no control over the goods sold
        Collection of payment is reasonably assured
        The amount of revenue can be reasonably measured
        Costs of earning the revenue can be reasonably measured

~~~
hydro2
I see, thanks. So you could delay deliveries.

They claim to remain profitable next quarter. Which is a good sign. I just
couldn’t help noticing. I also don’t see an expected revenue for next quarter.

Crossing my fingers for them.

------
dwighttk
I was confused because my ticker shows TSLA down about 2%, but it is up ~12%
in after hours trading.

------
onemoresoop
Congrats Elon. Now go get some sleep

------
andrewmunsell
Cross posting from the other thread:

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the
Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it
recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric
car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers
and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and
Blink is notorious for having broken charging stations. There's 4 ChargePoint
stations in a garage near me that have been broken and unmaintained for years,
and they're out of warranty and the mall doesn't have a financial incentive to
fix them.

And then there's the DC fast chargers. I'm not aware of a single BEV (Volts or
other PHEVs are excluded here) that can travel across the US with a reasonable
route without worrying about finding chargers along the way. In fact, last
time I looked, there was no physical way I could do a road trip I've been
meaning to do through the western US in my i3 (my car, of course, has half the
battery range of a Bolt) because of a lack of chargers.

Tesla's Supercharger build out is extremely important to their future. Until
other companies step up and install DCFC stations everywhere (and figure out
the CCS vs CHAdeMO format war), Tesla is going to have a massive advantage.
Sure, not everyone is going to want to do a multi-thousand mile road trip, but
driving one of Tesla's cars might make them.

~~~
dang
> Cross posting from the other thread

Please don't. It lowers the signal/noise ratio and makes it harder (a lot
harder!) to merge threads.

Instead, let us know at hn@ycombinator.com if there are two discussions going
on about the same thing. We'll happily move your comment over along with the
other on-topic ones.

------
scotchio
Congrats to Tesla!

This is HILARIOUS to see after the thousands and thousands of negative
articles and press over the last year.

~~~
akira2501
> This is HILARIOUS to see after the thousands and thousands of negative
> articles and press over the last year.

I wouldn't hold your breath just yet, the last quarter posted a loss, the one
before a gain, and the one before that was a loss.

Tesla is showing some signs of long-term capability here, but they're far from
out of the woods and into a complete success story.

~~~
rconti
They will absolutely continue to print money for another quarter or three.

They need sustained demand domestically, though.

Followed by international sales (lots of pent-up international demand already,
so that's not an issue in the short-mid term)

Of course, then they need to start gearing up (read: sink massive piles of
cash into) to produce the Model Y, and the Roadster, and refresh/redesign the
S and the X.

And scale superchargers.

And scale the repair network.

They're certainly not out of the woods, but I think this is one of the best
signs yet that they will make it.

------
colordrops
The last few big Tesla threads on HN were non-stop piling the shit onto Tesla
talking about how untenable they are, bad business model, inability to scale,
etc, etc. Is that just an indication that the short sellers have sock puppets
here on HN as well? HN happens to be an important source of Tesla news.

~~~
adventured
I got smacked with waves of downvotes for repeatedly stating a few obvious
things: the Model 3 would sell at least 100,000 units this year and that Tesla
wasn't going bankrupt anytime soon or going to run out of money soon. These
outcomes were not difficult to compute at all. I was mocked for it here, the
responses were wildly emotional in nature instead of rational and analytical.
You basically couldn't hold a disciplined conversation about Tesla on HN at
the time. Despite that abnormal behavior (abnormal for HN), I don't think the
very aggressively negative posters on HN were shills at all, they were merely
incapable of being objective about Musk & Tesla, falling back on emotional
reaction instead. Musk generates an unusually strong negative reaction in some
people, they either plainly dislike his personality, or are just falling into
the common psychological trap of wanting to see someone brought low (cutting
the tall poppies). That reaction then colors how they see Tesla and how they
judge the facts of a situation. Failure to correctly assess a situation is
almost always a better explanation than something malevolent as motivation.

------
i_phish_cats
Saudi Crown Prince is pleased with his investment.

------
_zachs
Just shows how fake all of the "expert analysis" is. It's so painfully obvious
that all of the expectations of losses of 15 cents/share were just paid for by
either the govt./big oil.

~~~
dgritsko
Or maybe that "expert analysis" is really difficult, with a lot of complicated
factors that are hard to reason about effectively?

~~~
onemoresoop
That's what they say when getting it wrong. Yes it's complicated, I agree, and
all predictions should be taken with a boulder of salt

------
ArtWomb
Massive beat. Free cash flow chart demonstrates the magnitude:

[https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqTLT1SU8AA92uB.jpg](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqTLT1SU8AA92uB.jpg)

My prediction is they ramp up R&D spend and hoist a slew of consumer products.
Or even get into aviation. Such as this drone spinoff from a former battery
engineer.

If you are a recent engineering grad, next couple of years will be a great
time to join ;)

[https://impossible.aero/](https://impossible.aero/)

