

Silicon Valley != The Internet (The CEO of Yammer says the darndest things) - diego
http://diegobasch.com/silicon-valley-the-internet-the-ceo-of-yammer-says-the-darndest-things

======
Stratoscope
Back around 1982, I went to a conference where Fred Gibbons of Software
Publishing Corporation stood up and said, "It's too late to start a new
software company."

I was shocked, but had to admit he was right. Who could possibly compete with
such titans of the industry as Software Publishing, Lotus, and VisiCorp?

~~~
drumdance
I remember Mitch Kapor saying the same thing after IBM bought Lotus.

~~~
astrodust
As each new market is locked up, new markets emerge. This is what's
fascinating about technology.

Fashion isn't changing the same way. People are still wearing shirts. They
don't need smaller shirts for some new appendage they didn't have six months
ago. In technology this happens all the time.

Now you need a spreadsheet for your phone but Excel is a bit too clumsy?
There's a whole new opportunity.

------
jonny_eh
I think he's just trying to explain why he doesn't think he has another Yammer
in him. Cognitive Dissonance explains all.

~~~
mrgreenfur
Totally agree here. The surprising part is his pessimism after he was
successful. He had his chance and now he's saying there's nothing left for
anyone to do? Seems like maybe he's depressed and needs to start over.

------
Synthetase
Human wants are a bottomless pit. Even if we automate every single industry,
people will still want something else. There is always an angle.

~~~
AznHisoka
So this explains why even though we've had so much technical innovation in
past 40 years, work hours have not decreased dramatically? Humans are such
assholes

~~~
xal
They haven't changed for the most productive people. They have certainly been
reduced for unskilled labor.

~~~
twelvechairs
I think there are some major logical flaws in what you are saying.

1 - 'The most productive people' is a weak description of anything. Producing
what? Money? If so, please just say 'the highest earners'. If not, please
remember that some 'unskilled labourers' could be 'the most productive people'
in their own fields (eg. construction). Some earn a lot of money too...

2 - Most 'unskilled labour' now happens in Asia. Work hours have probably
increased rather than decreased as compared to 40 years ago (in the factories
of the West, where at the time strong unionism led to better conditions).

------
bdcravens
I do feel there's a legit subtext here: we're going to see a ton of startups
operating at a micro level. The culture, and daresay the economy, of SV that
is based on big dreams and big VC may not always have enough wind behind it. I
don't think that time has come, but I don't believe that the winners will
always come out of SV, but we'll see more or more SaaS apps built by 1 or 2
people in Kansas or the Ukraine that generate a nice $200-300K revenue stream.

~~~
sayemm
I agree. Think we're going to see more and more winners among lean,
bootstrapped developers with good profitable niche ideas, esp as this
recession continues.

Sacks makes solid arguments though, as it relates to web startups. Trying to
make it as the next big thing among venture-backed internet startups is
becoming increasingly high-risk and extremely saturated, startup activity in
non-internet tech sectors will probably be more interesting and rewarding over
the coming years.

------
sgrove
Sack's comments really did surprise me when I realized he was serious - I
thought it was a joke the first time I read it, and laughed. There's just so
much inefficiency and scale in the world left, who could take it seriously?

There was big firm that made a similar bet on the internet (KPCB), and it
ended up costing them quite a bit - in addition to everyone chuckling a bit
whenever someone mentions "the (x) is dead!".

------
JoelMcCracken
I think the question is, what does he mean by "silicon valley as we know it"?

------
skrebbel
I agree with the article, but I wonder whether it'll mostly happen in the
Valley, in the way that internet companies very much mostly happened in the
Valley. Focusing so much on web web web web technology might have driven the
non-web engineers of many trades away from the Valley, to other places in the
world. Wouldn't these places be better equipped now to be the new "Silicon
Valley of <field>"?

------
y4m4
A facebook copy-cat does come out in weird fashion, fascinating :-)

~~~
astrodust
Facebook has an enormous empire, but like so many physical empires and virtual
ones before it, size is not always an asset. Facebook was built on the ashes
of MySpace which grew in the fertile remains of Geocities.

I can't wait until something takes root in the post-apocalyptic wasteland that
is Facebook's overly gentrified, douchebag-riddled internet experience.

