

Same as It Ever Was: Why the Techno-Optimists Are Wrong - nkurz
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2015-06-16/same-it-ever-was?

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ageek123
Same as it ever was: articles with the PoV expressed in this headline
inevitably have the following sentence, or one nearly identical to it:
"Fourth, we may need to redistribute income and wealth on a large scale"

Only problem with this one is that you had to read a bunch of bloviation to
get to it.

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ewzimm
The arguments here are pretty well-considered, but I also disagree with almost
all of them. The problem is that it is using measurements invented by those
who rose to power through the industrial revolution to prove how it was more
impactful than recent revolutions. It's as if the author were trying to prove
how the first industrial revolution was a disappointment because it resulted
in slower growth in worldwide feudalism.

The invention of broadcast television and radio increased instant access to
information more than the Internet, but old media only allowed a few
broadcasters. As more people gained access, fewer had a voice. This trend
continues in recent times. In 2012, 6 companies controlled 90% of the American
media, down from 50 in 1982. [http://read.bi/16Yhrsh](http://read.bi/16Yhrsh)

But as old media was consolidating, the Internet was diversifying. People
upload 5 hours of video to YouTube every second, up from 1 hour per second in
2012. [http://bit.ly/1gMtN7t](http://bit.ly/1gMtN7t)

The Writers Guilds of America combined have around 25,000 members, but more
than 1 billion people across the world use YouTube and can reach nearly any
American. The top contributers are more popular with teenagers than mainstream
celebrities. [http://bit.ly/1aEn1vb](http://bit.ly/1aEn1vb)

So which has more impact: distributing a single story to many people, or
allowing more people to tell stories? The choice of what is measured
determines the value of the measurement, and not just in media penetration.

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talleyrand
I'm fascinated by this idea: " It would be possible, for example, for the
state to obtain an automatic share of the income from the intellectual
property it protects." Why shouldn't creators of IP pay for the protection
they receive, beyond the relatively small filing fee they currently pay?

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ams6110
The constitution provides for the protection of intellectual property "To
promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts," not to extract money from
it. Besides, financially successful inventions are already taxed in a variety
of ways.

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foundart
The article does a reasonable job of describing why our current innovations
are less significant than previous ones such as the internal combustion engine
and so forth, but is much weaker on predictions for the future. To cherry
pick: The author claims, without any support, that "Three-D Printing is a
niche activity-- fun, but unlikely to revolutionize manufacturing." The
reality here is that 3-D printing, by supporting rapid prototyping, is already
revolutionizing the development of products. See for example
[https://www.nsf.gov/about/history/nsf0050/manufacturing/rapi...](https://www.nsf.gov/about/history/nsf0050/manufacturing/rapid.htm)

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batbomb
Yes, but there's been no real singificant growth in the sector in the last ~2
years. See: DDD, SSYS, XONE, etc... All three companies are struggling very
hard when the future was so bright. Yes, there are other companies, but these
are the market leaders.

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ef4
I am convinced that people are dramatically underestimating the explosive
progress that is going on in basic life science right now. Our ability to
understand and manipulate biology is accelerating tremendously.

There is always a lag between the science and the applications, but I expect
to live to see revolutions in medicine and biological engineering.

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transfire
It may be more likely that we live to see the rise of Grey Goo.

~~~
ef4
I suspect that if it was easy to accidentally make Grey Goo evolution already
would have done it. Or more accurately, evolution already did, and we are the
Grey Goo's descendants.

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Terr_
Exactly: Any "successful" gray-too is going to require us to equip it with
some novel techniques or biochemistry...

I'd worry much more about us leaking a trait that existing bacteria could
transfer horizontally.

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tim333
This was up a few days ago
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9748195](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9748195)

