

Cops find five Indian Ocean practice runways in MH370 pilot’s simulator - hkphooey
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/cops-find-five-indian-ocean-practice-runways-in-mh370-pilots-simulator-bh-r

======
evanm
This article is so misleading, starting with the title.

"Cops find five Indian Ocean practice Runways..." seems to suggest these
runways were used for practice by Shah. This article says nothing more than
these were runway options (out of probably thousands) that were available for
simulation. There is no useful information from this piece at all, and it is
leading to completely unwarranted speculation, especially by folks who have no
knowledge of flying and simulators.

~~~
sentenza
It's not even like there is anyting suspicious about having a bunch of runways
close to his regular routes on his simulator to practice on.

I'd almost expect something like this from a pilot that takes his trade
seriously. After all, where do you have to land in case of emergency, if not
on some runway near your regular routes.

------
oxryly1
If a Malaysian pilot with a simulator DIDN'T have these airports readily
available in his simulator I'd be kinda shocked.

------
kjs3
Pilot who flies in the area of the Indian Ocean has Indian Ocean airports on
his practice setup. Obviously, a smoking gun. Also good that the defense
minister denied the plane landed at Diego Garcia, because who in the world
would notice it sitting there for a week?

What's Malay for "Keystone Kops".

~~~
hkphooey
Maybe there's something lost in translation but I guess the story was leaked
to journalists because the runways were specially designated i.e. bookmarked
or set-up for regular practice with waypoints similar to what investigators
have found.

I'm not a pilot, but I imagine if I were, I would want to try landing at
airports I normally wouldn't. So in the simulator I would probably pick the
world's toughest runways, the most scenic ones, runways on the other side of
the world...

The Malaysians are being criticized but I don't think many countries would do
that much better given the task in hand. Sure, the public relations and
messaging should be better, but I'm sure there's a lot of stuff going on that
we don't know about.

~~~
mikeash
I don't believe that idea that other countries wouldn't do better.

They had the military radar data the night the plane went missing, indicating
that the plane did not in fact crash near where the transponder shut down, but
flew west for over an hour before disappearing off the radar in that
direction.

Despite having this information available, they either ignored it or didn't
think to ask for it or _something_ , and as a result they wasted massive
amounts of time and effort (theirs and that of other countries) searching the
_wrong ocean_. For a _week_.

That military radar data is probably the most important information in the
investigation that wasn't immediately known. Yet it didn't actually come to
light until days later, and then when it did their immediate reaction was to
deny that it was true! It took another couple of days before they finally
settled down and admitted, yes, we tracked this plane flying completely out of
the search area and far away from where we've been telling everyone it is. And
we knew this for a couple of days, but we let everybody continue searching the
wrong place anyway. In fact, we'll _still_ let them keep searching for a
couple more days before we refocus.

There is some serious WTF going on. I _hope_ there is some massive coverup or
conspiracy going on, because they're verging on criminally incompetent
otherwise.

~~~
pge
To give them the benefit of the doubt, when a plane's transponder shuts down
over the ocean and isnt heard from again, it's very easy to leap to the
obvious conclusion that it went down and focus on marshaling recovery
resources, rather than thinking through how to test extremely low probability
hypotheses like "the pilot turned off the electronics and flew in a completely
different direction."

~~~
gradstudent
My understanding is that the military radar tracked the plane for hours after
the transponder went off. This raises some important questions:

1\. How did the military not know this plane disappeared from civilian
tracking systems?

2\. If they did know, why did they not scramble planes to check what's going
on?

3\. Why did they withhold for days the fact that the plane changed direction?

The GP is right: some serious WTF going on in Malaysia.

~~~
Zancarius
If it turned and were to follow established corridors, I can't imagine
neighboring militaries would be particularly concerned. Even if they were
paying attention to the transponders themselves, they might figure it was some
sort of technical trouble--as long as the aircraft stays in the corridor, who
cares? Some idiot flying along an established route without his transponder is
a problem for ATC, not air defense, and that seems to be the best explanation
for #1 and #3, probably even #2. Sure, Vietnam noticed and tried to inform
Malaysia, but countries upstream from the route might not have cared (they
probably wouldn't have seen it turn, either).

But you're right, Malaysia hasn't done a stellar job organizing the search and
recovery (understatement of the year aware goes to...). The real problem,
though, is that no one has any idea what's going on.

I admit. There's something fantastical to consider about a plane, under
control of a rogue pilot (or pilots), clandestinely flying to a location for
possible future use in an elaborate terror plot. The only caveat is that the
logistics of such a thing would require so much preliminary planning in terms
of fueling, storing/hiding the plane somewhere, or outright repainting it,
that it very nearly requires the resources of a state actor or another
determined (and secretive) foe. And who would be the target? The simplest
solution, then, is to speculate that there was some sort of emergency on
board, the pilots became confused (or incapacitated and the plane was
operating on autopilot), and the aircraft is now at the bottom of the sea.

Returning to the article: It's easy to blame countries near the Indian Ocean
of being highly secretive about their capabilities. I'm sure they are, of
course, (and certainly need to be) but there's something about the elaborate
hijacking plot that seems amazingly complicated and difficult to pull off.
Moreover, as time wears on, the probability of being discovered increases, and
I'm sure other states (Israel) might be keeping an eye on potential suspects
(Iran) for such activity anyway, simply out of paranoia. Further, how easy is
it to disappear a plane and keep it hidden for weeks, months, or indefinitely?
One instance [1] comes to mind, but with 239 people on board...? That's to say
nothing about finding a runway large enough to land such a beast that is
_also_ not well monitored.

I'll say this: It'd make great fiction, certainly, but I think the crux of the
matter is something we don't do well as humans. We don't like to admit that we
don't know the answer. And this could become the _mystery of the century_ if
it's never found. However, I'm inclined to believe it was an emergency of some
sort (at least I hope). But, the only thing that doesn't mesh well with that
theory is the engine monitoring data, but we might very well discover there
was a valid reason for that (incapacitated pilots?).

For the sake of the families, I hope something is discovered soon--if only for
closure. I can't even begin to imagine the pain they're feeling not knowing
what became of their loved ones.

[1] [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N844AA](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N844AA)

~~~
lake_rogue
The effects of hypoxia are profound on human performance -- it's not as simple
as being unconscious and incapacitated, it can be irrational and incoherent.

As an example, listen to the incoherency of this professional pilot suffering
effects of hypoxia at 32,000 feet (flying a LearJet 25) -- he sounds falling
over drunk, complaining about flight control problems, oblivious to the
profound effects of hypoxia that he and his copilot are experiencing:

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IqWal_EmBg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IqWal_EmBg)

Then listen to him after being coached to descend to 11,000 feet when
everything really is "A-OK".

He sounds like a completely different person at 4:10.

The co-pilot who sounds young and spritely at 4:00 (who me? unconscious, nah,
just a micro-nap) had this written about him: "the unconscious first officer's
arm was moving violently and uncontrolled all the time kicking the controls
and thus disengaging the autopilot"). [1]

While I find all the wild speculation fascinating, sadly I believe the highest
probability explanation is still a fire or depressurization, resulting in a
pilot acting incoherently.

Of course, all stones should still be turned over in the search, but there's
been no evidence so far that changes the scenario above from being the highest
probability in my assessment.

[1]
[http://avherald.com/h?article=428a428b](http://avherald.com/h?article=428a428b)

~~~
Zancarius
Hypoxia is another consideration that's worth looking at and would certainly
explain the wild altitude changes. It's a shame that it's not being explored
as closely as some of the other theories.

Particularly when you consider it was responsible (at least partially) for the
downing of Helios flight 522 in 2005.

------
seanalltogether
And how many other practice runways were also on the simulator? Zero...one
hundred?

------
chrisBob
If this was deliberate, and that pilot is the one behind it, then he probably
put some thought into what was saved on his home flight simulator also. Anyone
who vanishes a 777 for over a week probably put a little effort into details
like that.

~~~
hkphooey
Good point, so any bookmarked runways could be a complete red herring...

------
andyjohnson0
Is it common for professional pilots to have flight simulators at home?

Edit: added "professional"

~~~
dingaling
I admittedly have a small sample set of two commercial pilots, but they're
much like any other corporate workers.

Once they're home they crash-out and relax. Make a meal, have a shower. Check
Facebook.

Their day job is pretty boring* and they're not particuarly interested in
replicating it on a computer.

* where did you fly today? Oh, a runway in Portugal and another one in Malta.

~~~
kjs3
This particular pilot made instructional flight videos for YouTube on his home
flight simulator. Not everyone hates their job.

------
fleitz
In other news inspecting Michael Schumacher's copy of GT5 indicates he
practiced on Formula 1 tracks.

~~~
kjs3
It's much worse...NASCAR. Clearly, he's involved somehow.

------
hkphooey
The five airports are located in the Maldives, Diego Garcia, India and Sri
Lanka.

News out today claims multiple eye-witnesses in the Maldives:

 _" Residents of the remote Maldives island of Kuda Huvadhoo in Dhaal Atoll
have reported seeing a "low flying jumbo jet" on the morning of the
disappearance of the Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

They said that it was a white aircraft, with red stripes across it – which is
what the Malaysia Airlines flights typically look like.

...

"I've never seen a jet flying so low over our island before. We've seen
seaplanes, but I'm sure that this was not one of those. I could even make out
the doors on the plane clearly," said an eyewitness.

"It's not just me either, several other residents have reported seeing the
exact same thing. Some people got out of their houses to see what was causing
the tremendous noise too."_

[http://www.haveeru.com.mv/news/54062](http://www.haveeru.com.mv/news/54062)

~~~
Shivetya
I was under the impression this is rule out because the timing is eight hours
after it vanished

~~~
hkphooey
The last INMARSAT ping was at 8:11am, the plane lost contact around 1:19am, so
it's possible.

[http://theaviationist.com/2014/03/16/satcom-acars-
explained/](http://theaviationist.com/2014/03/16/satcom-acars-explained/)

Note the comments in the above link, the authorities have only released the
INMARSAT ARC corresponding to a single ping. They have not released the ARCs
for all the pings which would indicate if the plane was flying West or not.

It may be that authorities are already investigating the Maldives and possible
follow-on destinations, but do not want to publicly alert the pilot/hijackers
that they are on their trail, so in public the focus has been on the northern
corridor and Kazakhstan.

------
revelation
The speculation around this seems rather pointless. Obviously, at this time,
the plane has neither crashed into anything or magically converted water into
fuel, nor has it landed anywhere it could fly off from again.

So how about we find it first (stuck in some jungle as its guaranteed to be)
and then let facts guide our wild speculations?

------
martinjones
This does sounds like a solid lead - maybe the most interesting news in the
last few days.

~~~
RobotCaleb
Breaking news. Most pilots with flight simulators have airports loaded into
them that fall within regions in which they might fly.

~~~
malandrew
I'm actually surprised that most simulators don't have many if not all major
runways (1000+ meters) loaded on them.

~~~
pubman
There are essentially two simulators that the majority of pilots use.
Microsoft FSX and Xplane. They both have pretty much all of the airports in
the world installed by default. The extras you install are the actual scenery,
but the airports are there without any manual installation.

------
beaner
What if it stopped there to refuel and then took off again?

~~~
notahacker
If you assume the conspiracy involves the Air Traffic Control and fuel
handling services at Male Airport, plus any tourists or Maldivians in the two
population centres a few hundred metres away, then the theory of them sneaking
a massive jet in and out of Male airport without anybody noticing becomes a
distinct possibility.

~~~
beaner
Just thinking out loud I guess.

Altneratively: it went to Diego Garcia, and the US military is in on it. No
civilians or public air services required. It refueled and launched again from
there.

Don't necessarily believe these are likely, it's just interesting to think
about.

