
China Restricts Export of Drones, Supercomputers - mwytock
http://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-CJB-27405
======
zkhalique
What we should all be concerned about aren't the exports. It's the "imports"
\-- drones invading our airspace, built by no-name manufacturers and launched
by anonymous people, for who knows what purposes.

Even without nefarious goals, a drone can simply malfunction and drop on
someone's head, which is already dangerous. But if 1 out of 1000 drones is
programmed to do something malicious, how would our legal systems address it?
Do we even have a system that could prevent something like that? We've never
had to deal with autonomous robots roaming among people before.

What I'm most afraid of is the arms race of drones. It will happen before the
AI arms race that Hawking and Musk warn about:
[http://techcrunch.com/2015/07/27/artificially-assured-
destru...](http://techcrunch.com/2015/07/27/artificially-assured-destruction/)

~~~
kenrikm
Wow, I don't even know where to begin except.. [1]

There are already millions of "drones" out in the world more then capable of
doing all of the terrible things you can imagine and yet they don't because
there are easier ways to do evil and people who have the desire to do bad
things generally choose the easier route.

I would also like to point out Cars kill 38k+ people per year in the US and
could also be used for all sorts of bad things (like running people over)
should we be worried about all of those imported cars too? Autonomous cars
could be instructed to run over a lot of people! Ban Cars!

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear_mongering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear_mongering)

~~~
zkhalique
One word: autonomous.

Cars aren't.

~~~
dogma1138
Most modern cars have more electronics in them than any drone on the market.

The difference is that the auto industry is heavily regulated, and even then
you got recalls up to the wazoo.

------
johansch
China trying to get tech credibility by restricting exports of supercomputers
made using Intel chips? Hilarious.

~~~
igravious
I'm getting sick of the this sort of sardonic racism on HN, and it never gets
called out.

I'm from Europe and I can see what's happening. China starts making progress
so US starts jeering every twist and turn. Give it a rest already. Same
happened way back with Japan and all the jokes made back then.

Here's a story from 2011 about the Chinese building a supercomputer based on
its own tech. Name me how many countries have done that? So, can I just ask HN
comment people to please stop with the comments like this, it's gone beyond
tiresome to annoying.

[http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/29/world/asia/china-
unveils-s...](http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/29/world/asia/china-unveils-
supercomputer-based-on-its-own-microprocessor-chips.html)

~~~
Frozenlock
How is that racism?

~~~
igravious
Why shouldn't the largest economy in the world be able to produce high tech
microprocessors?

The suggestion that they'd be banning the export of Intel processors is dumb.

The "Hilarious" is just icing. To me the whole comment smacks of racism. What
would you call it? I knew I'd get down-voted for saying it, and I've held my
tongue in the past. But it's nearly every article about China now. These
sardonic off-the-cuff remarks. It's so accepted here, and it shouldn't be. So
I'm calling it out.

~~~
ajross
Just to be clear, I didn't read that as a statement of abstract capability but
of fact. China (still the second largest economy in the world by a large
margin, btw) is not, in fact, capable of manufacturing leading edge
microprocessors. They just don't have the fabs, nor industrial knowledge to
build them.

So if they want a supercomputer right now (or frankly at any point in the
coming decade or so), they need to do it with chips fabbed in the west. So
restricting "export" of that technology back to the west does seem kinda funny
to me. No?

~~~
sampo
> _China (still the second largest economy in the world by a large margin,
> btw)_

What is the largest?

~~~
seanmcdirmid
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_\(nominal\))

The EU if you count it as a country, otherwise the USA.

~~~
meric
I think the use of PPP is more appropriate than nominal - the former measures
how much goods and services the country produces while the latter measures how
many US dollars those goods and services sell for. A hamburger is a hamburger
- Last time I tried it actually tasted better in a Chinese McDonald's than the
Aussie counterpart.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
A hamburger at McDonalds often costs more than in the states. Many things are
more expensive here. You want to drive a car? Ah, that will be $60k please. We
spent 120 RMB on a bottle of shampoo and conditioner last week..I told my wife
that is almost $20!

~~~
meric
You're in Beijing - that's like someone living in NYC complaining US house
prices are $0.9m each. Accurate for where he lives, but cannot be generalised
to the entire country as a whole, where median US house price is only $0.2m
each. Things are a lot more affordable out in places like Foshan (where I had
my Maccas).

EDIT: Reply to below:

You're talking from your Beijing experience and I'm talking from my visiting
relatives in Shunde experience...Maybe it'll be hard for us to agree. Rents,
Food, Public Transport, Clothing, Education are all quite cheap compared to
the U.S. and those goods are what enable people to carry out their day to day
lives. Walmart made-in-china goods are naturally cheaper in China than in U.S.
House prices, Car taxes, Luxury taxes are part of government policy in
managing monetary policy and exchange rates with the U.S. and has as much
relevance as the nominal GDP - not much when you're measuring the average
person's income and the goods and services they can purchase. And remember,
China's population is several times that of the U.S.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Please, let's not even get into housing...I can never buy a house here. But at
least rents are cheap!

Quality goods in China are expensive period. If you are in a second or third
tier city, its even worse. We schedule trips to Hong Kong for shopping...we
aren't the only ones also! Cars are expensive all over China as they are
heavily taxed. Only food could be considered a bit cheaper, but you have to
avoid the low end completely over food safety concerns (e.g. gutter oil).

All in all, I would save money by moving back to Seattle, I think. More to pay
in rent, but houses are cheaper to buy, food is more expensive, but groceries
would be cheaper. Taxis are much more expensive, but I could actually own my
own car and park it legally without paying a whole bunch of money.

------
dkarapetyan
This is silly. They are not acting in their own best interests by doing this.
The only thing this does is open up the opportunity for someone else to step
in. It's not like they are leading in either drone or supercomputer
technology.

It would make sense if they were so ahead of the curve that everyone was
clamoring to get the stuff and in which case the restrictions on the top end
stuff would make sense but as it is I don't think they're in that kind of
position. Manufacturing wise they might be but not in terms of R&D.

~~~
hiou
And the race to build rockets in the US was only about going to space 50 years
ago... You might want to read up a bit about the reasons for Chinese
industrialization. It's a means to an end. I've yet to read anything talking
about China wanting to join the global economy beyond it's internal goals. You
seriously think China's end game is building cheap stuff for Western
consumers?

~~~
dkarapetyan
I didn't say anything about building cheap stuff for "western consumers",
those are your words not mine. All I said was their manufacturing capabilities
are currently unmatched but they are in no way leading in terms of the cutting
edge stuff when it comes to either technology. It just seems counter-intuitive
to me that being in that position they are limiting exports of supercomputers
and drones.

For that matter I'm really curious which countries are clamoring for Chinese
supercomputers and drones?

As for the history of Chinese industrialization I honestly don't see how that
matters when it comes to setting export limits. It is purely a trade issue and
usually when exports are limited in this fashion it is because the technology
is perceived to provide some kind of advantage to whoever has it. Cryptography
software comes to mind as a good example of something that the U.S. government
tried to control with export laws for a long time. Carrying that analogy
forward I don't see how supercomputers or drones provide any kind of advantage
since most countries I can think of that could benefit from buying the
technology from China do not pose a threat to it and those that wouldn't be
buying from China and instead building things in-house are already equal to or
beyond China's capabilities. The export limit in both instances is counter-
intuitive because nobody wins from this arrangement.

~~~
hiou
So you believe that US manufacturing could equal China's output in both drones
and supercomputers if there was an immediate and urgent need for them?

~~~
dkarapetyan
I don't think there is a shortage of manufacturing capabilities when it comes
to drones and supercomputers in any place that cares enough for any of those
two things, U.S. or otherwise.

------
dzhiurgis
Mac Pro achieves 7 teraflops.

Also pictured in article are toy quadcopters.

~~~
mrpollo
an Inspire 1 is hardly a toy, it's a professional drone.

~~~
dzhiurgis
Professional filming, not a killing machine.

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mapt
If by "restrict" they mean "prohibit", then this unilateral action just
destroyed most of the world's hobbyist & prosumer UAV trade flows, which were
driven by Shenzhen factories big and small.

~~~
mapt
Looking further, the problem isn't so extreme:
[http://www.suasnews.com/2015/08/37585/china-tightens-
control...](http://www.suasnews.com/2015/08/37585/china-tightens-controls-on-
drone-and-powerful-computer-exports/)

"From August 15, manufacturers of certain powerful drones and computers will
have to give technical details to the authorities to obtain a licence prior to
export, Xinhua news agency says.

The new regulations from the Ministry of Commerce and the General
Administration of Customs are aimed in particular at drones which can fly for
more than one hour and at heights of more than 15,420 metres."

So basically, drones powered by internal combustion engines need to be design-
certified.

~~~
hrrsn
So despite the article talking about DJI heavily, none of DJI's products will
be impacted.

