
We're Entering a Post-Device Era - jonbaer
http://www.fastcompany.com/3061084/were-way-past-steve-jobs-post-pc-era-and-headed-for-a-post-device-future
======
jbandela1
There are 2 main issues with this - latency and software innovation. And they
are related.

The first issue is latency. Information can only be transmitted as fast as the
speed of light. Thus for a given distance - there is a hard lower limit on
latency.

The second issue is software innovation. People are constantly coming up with
new ways to use computing power - and often latency is a big deal. Take for
example shell vs GUI. If you are just typing commands in a line oriented
manner, a dumb terminal works great. If you try to run Excel fully remotely
with a round trip every time you edit a cell - you will go crazy.

Another example will be artificial intelligence. A lot of the algorithms are
compute intensive. As AI becomes more prevalent and more used by people, an
experience that has a lower latency will become an advantage. To achieve this
- more computing will need to be done on the device to avoid server round-trip
latencies.

If you look at the history of computing, it seems that just about the time
when everybody seems assured that centralized servers with dumb terminals will
win the day - some new innovation comes that tips the balance towards powerful
devices. I suspect it will be this way again.

------
delecti
This has worked in cycles between thin and fat clients since computers
started. We're not in a post-device era any more than we were in a post-server
era as mainframes gave way to PCs.

~~~
jasonkostempski
Thinking about the behavior in the mobile market drives me insane. When the
tech is hard to make small, we go for the smallest possible devices. When it's
easy to make small we go for the biggest possible devices in the name of
screen size. When storage is finally pennies per GB with super small media, we
loose removable media slots and accept paying $100 per storage tier and then
pay even more to store everything in the cloud. I'm hoping eventually we'll
hit a cycle where 4" screens, removable batteries, removable SD and hardware
keyboard comes back in style and is available in an unlocked phone that can
run Cyanogenmod. If that happens, I'll buy 3 of them with a life time supply
of batteries.

~~~
marcosdumay
My current phone has the optimum width and height to fit in a pocket. I
wouldn't look for any one with a very different size. Although it could be
thicker if it comes with some gain, making it thinner wouldn't be of any use
for me. I also would loss nothing if it weighted twice as much.

By the way, it has a removable battery and SD. I'd get a hardware keyboard
only if it did not reduce the screen.

But that is me. My wife, for example prefer smaller phones because she does
not carry it in a pocket.

Outside of the Apple realm, phones have some diversity. And while
manufacturers completely refuse to offer some features (like big batteries)
for reasonable prices, one is able to get approximately what he wants.

------
FussyZeus
Bunk. Illogical bunk from people who have no idea how this stuff works.

The iPhone didn't end the PC, the tablet didn't end the PC, the laptop didn't
end the PC. All of these things are still around and all of these things are
still used for a variety of purposes by a variety of professionals. The only
people who ever come up with this "end of X tool" are thin users, people who
never leave a web browser and are convinced because they don't need a dual cpu
workstation with 64 gig of ram and four video cards to type their nonsense,
that no one else does either.

So tiring.

~~~
majkinetor
How true! Context is everything.

------
elgabogringo
Whoa, for a minute I thought this was a 2010 "Death of the PC" article,
because the arguments are at times almost verbatim.

In my opinion, this is not "peak-smartphone" in the way it is "peak-PC". PC
growth slowed because people were buying/using Smartphones instead.

Smartphone growth (especially iPhone growth) has slowed because the high
penetration rate among those who could afford a smartphone. However, nothing
is replacing smartphones at the moment.

~~~
jackmaney
PC growth also slowed because, in general, hardware upgrades aren't needed as
frequently as they used to.

~~~
elgabogringo
The move to the cloud is a big factor here too. I now generally judge a
machine based on how many browser tabs I can have open at a time while still
getting good performance.

------
xlayn
This is what drives tech bubbles, catchy phrases, how would you make use of
your computerized information services if it's not making use of a device?

Pc's never went away, smartphones will never go away, server side programming
never went away, big data, JS, the cloud (which translates to my server on
someone else location) never took away.

Different tools have different uses, that's here to stay.

~~~
alanwatts
No tools have ever gone extinct in human history

[http://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2011/02/04/133188723/to...](http://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2011/02/04/133188723/tools-
never-die-waddaya-mean-never)

------
jackmaney
Post-device era? I'm still waiting for that alleged "Post-PC era" to arrive.
I'm not holding my breath.

~~~
vvanders
Wait what, why didn't anyone tell me? Here I was thinking this was the year of
Linux on the desktop.

------
noddingham
Garbage article by some author that just wants to be able to claim 'I told you
so' or 'I said it first'. Given that the author runs a market research /
consulting firm this is basically a shill piece to help drum up business.

------
Unbeliever69
Yeah, and I'm typing this comment on my netbook...NOT!

