
The Price We Pay: How Little Most Bay Area Families Can Afford - rafaelc
https://extras.mercurynews.com/pricewepay/
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physcab
Story of my life. I’ve lived in SF for almost 9 years, my wife for 15 years,
and we have a toddler, 90 lb dog, and a baby on the way, making it work in
650sf apt on combined $120k. I’m immensely grateful that the only reason we
have savings at all is because my wife bought a below market rate condo with
the city when she was single making $40k a year.

It feels weird to make this much but feel so poor. That any hiccup in life
could make you miss bills. It’s been fine so far but as our family grows there
will be no choice but to leave. Childcare is just too expensive.

I love this city, but over time I’ve felt I’ve gotten less out of it in
exchange for more.

~~~
cylinder
Prevailing wage data indicates you should really be making north of $110k as a
database analyst or administrator with over a decade of experience...

~~~
physcab
I used to be an analyst, and used to make atleast double that. But to earn
that kind of salary you often sacrifice work life balance and experience all
consuming stress. I decided being poor was more healthy and quit.

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lquist
If you want SF to have a bright future long term, we need to build and not
just housing but infrastructure as well.

~~~
thanatos_dem
San Francisco needs to accept that you can’t declare entire neighborhoods
historic. You need to be able tear things down to make taller buildings,
bigger roads, more expansive public transit networks.

But they refuse because of “historic significance”. That’s one sure fire way
to get your city to be historically insignificant in the long run.

~~~
estebank
I'm with most of your points, but "bigger roads" stands out to me. Is there a
need for bigger roads anywhere in the city? I would say that most of the city
has pretty big roads already, if anything I'd like to see road slimming, or
turning two lane roads into 3 lanes with dedicated bus lanes or segregated
bike lanes.

~~~
thanatos_dem
Most of the roads are effectively single lane, two at most, once you subtract
the taxi/bus lane.

One truck parked in the middle of the road to deliver something, or one car
blocking the box at an intersection and it’s a standstill.

Also, Highway 101 turns into a residential street with stoplights for several
miles.

~~~
Bahamut
A better subway system that goes along more than one route would be more
worthwhile.

~~~
estebank
I'm pretty happy with the dedicated bus lane that goes for most of Geary after
divisadero, but it saddens me how it was fought tooth and nail by vocal people
on the neighborhood.

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killjoywashere
I feel like I read news in a way other people don't. Maybe I'm wrong? Here's
the lessons I take:

* Prices are crazy in the City. Lesson: don't try moving to the Bay area without $1-2M in cash on hand.

* Student loans are predatory. Lesson: avoid student loans. Study hard, get scholarships if it's obvious that you can, and otherwise plan for community college for the first couple of years. No one cares where you did English 101.

* Government research grants are shrinking. Lesson: don't waste time seek research support from the government. There are plenty of other folks looking for ways to spend their money. My job is to show them a way.

The most valuable things you have are time and health. Focus on conserving
those.

~~~
TaylorAlexander
> Prices are crazy in the City. Lesson: don't try moving to the Bay area
> without $1-2M in cash on hand.

This is not a reasonable expectation for 99% of the people in the country. If
your answer to the housing crisis is “be rich”, you’re not thinking of
solutions. Should only millionaires be able to live in San Francisco?

~~~
themoat
Of course not.

I don't think his numbers are super accurate in his comment, but of course he
isn't proposing a solution to the housing crisis, he's offering advice to
anyone thinking of moving to SF.

I offer similar advice to people who want to become commercial helicopter
pilots.

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mbesto
Home values are starting to peak:

[https://www.zillow.com/palo-alto-ca/home-
values/](https://www.zillow.com/palo-alto-ca/home-values/)

[https://www.zillow.com/redwood-city-ca/home-
values/](https://www.zillow.com/redwood-city-ca/home-values/)

[https://www.zillow.com/los-altos-ca/home-values/](https://www.zillow.com/los-
altos-ca/home-values/)

[https://www.zillow.com/mountain-view-ca/home-
values/](https://www.zillow.com/mountain-view-ca/home-values/)

Which basically tells you one thing...people are starting to move out because
it's too damn expensive.

~~~
gnicholas
Just two data points, but the houses we've seen go up for sale in our
neighborhood near Menlo Park were mobbed and went in a week. Prices were
higher than I expected, as someone who has been watching the market. Both
require massive ($200k+) renovations and/or retrofitting.

Having seen this, and with the coming IPOs, I'd guess prices will continue to
trend upward.

~~~
qqqwerty
I think it will largely depend on how the new stocks perform. The early
employees, senior engineers and upper management are probably already pulling
in large enough salaries where they could afford to buy if they wanted to. But
newer employees (last 3-4 years), HR, sales, etc.. might not have enough
appreciation in their options to move the needle much in this housing market
($400k-$500k windfall does not go nearly as far as it used to, and that is
probably on the high end for the median employee). This is somewhat due to the
fact that these companies have had sky high valuations for so long (Uber was
valued at $40B in 2014, projected to go public at $100-120B, so only 3x in 5
years).

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egypturnash
Every time I think about Bay Area rents I feel really sorry for my artist
friends who grew up there. They will never be able to move back home.

~~~
quickthrower2
If they moved away I can't feel sorry for them. They are probably living
somewhere more interesting and affordable.

~~~
cjhopman
It's too bad that you don't recognize the well established emotional
connection that people make to the places where they live.

~~~
cjhopman
Or, for that matter, the extensive loss in social connections/cohesion that
results from such a move.

~~~
quickthrower2
I live 10500 miles from where I grew up ... so maybe I do.

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pxeboot
Until some major legislative changes or another recession occur, housing
prices are likely to continue getting worse until people collectively agree it
would be more desirable to live somewhere else for a lower price.

~~~
mevile
Why do you think a state legislature or city government will be able to solve
a complex problem like housing prices? Do you know of any successful examples
of a government intervention in housing prices?

The closest I've seen is recent rules letting developers ignore city zoning
rules to combat NIMBY attitudes that prevent additional housing development.

~~~
grandmczeb
It’s largely a government caused problem, so why couldn’t there be a
government solution as well? Repeal prop-13, reduce permitting costs/time,
require statewide by-right, force up zoning, etc. Those are government
solutions that would have significant impact if there was political will.

~~~
Tempest1981
Prop 13 was a ballot measure, and requires another ballot measure to repeal.
Government can't help with that.

But it's an uphill battle, vs groups like California Chamber of Commerce and
Howard Jarvis. And they've convinced businesses that higher consumer taxes
will hurt their profits, which could be true. So you have strong lobbying
against repeal.

~~~
grandmczeb
I'm aware that prop 13 requires a ballot measure to repeal -- I think we may
disagree on the semantics of what constitutes a "government solution" though.

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rayiner
I don’t understand why we care so much. High Bay Area housing prices mainly
affect (1) people who already live there, whose anti-development voting
patterns created this mess to begin with; or (2) rich people who can afford to
move in.

There are a lot of communities around the country that don’t hate development.
For a map of desirable places to live, consider Google Fiber cities. (Not just
because of the fiber, but the pro-development, low regulation attitudes that
attracted Google in the first place.)

~~~
burlesona
It comes down to your definition of "we." People who live in the Bay Area and
would like to stay have an obvious reason to care. And since the tech industry
is so concentrated in the Bay Area, there's a very large contingent of HN
posters who care.

I'll also say, I moved to the Bay Area, with my family of 4, from much more
affordable North Carolina, to take a very good engineering job. It's been a
huge boon for my career, and basically everything about it -- except for
housing -- has been great.

That said, it is frustrating to make solid six figure incomes and work the
kind of awesome job that is very hard to find elsewhere, and yet not be able
to afford what would constitute a "nice middle class home" anywhere else. Note
that I don't mean a suburban house necessarily, I just mean 3-4 bedrooms and
1200-1800 sure feet or so, reasonably new and well maintained. You pretty much
need to be a millionaire to get that in the BA.

Or to put it another way: it's nuts to think that you'd go to work every day
in a beautiful city with an amazing job surrounded by interesting people
making great money, and still find yourself wondering if you'd rather ditch it
all for a third bedroom in another state. Surely we could find a way to build
more housing here and make this place work, couldn't we?

~~~
cylinder
because there are lots of good jobs paying six figures there. land prices go
for a percentage of incomes, always. you probably need to go back to your
employer and say that you aren't being adequately compensated. I'm confused
why you think you are making great money if it doesn't afford you a modest
home? these companies are making huge amounts off our backs and they either
need to pay more or they need to move the jobs elsewhere. until employees
start being more demanding it won't happen.

~~~
burlesona
Because I can afford mediocre housing and put 50-100k per year in savings,
which to me is a lot of money.

However, when the townhome next door sells for $4 million, that savings rate
isn’t getting me anywhere (here) very quickly.

And thus I’m playing the same game everyone else I know here is playing:
stockpile savings that are worth a little here and in a few years take them
somewhere that they’re worth a lot.

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funkaster
> A host of major San Francisco-based companies such as Airbnb, Pinterest,
> Slack, Uber and Lyft have gone or plan to go public this year, minting
> thousands of new millionaires overnight

I always wonder how much truth is in that statement vs FUD. Are there numbers
on the (expected number of) people that will get >$2e6 for instance? My bet
would be that the majority will be in the < $1e6 bucket: you could make it for
a good down-payment, but maybe you could also just live a really good life
somewhere else. Still, it would be interesting to get some numbers on that.

At least, that's my thought: if I ever have the money to be able to buy in
cash a decent house in SF, I'm out of here :P

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dawhizkid
I've seen some 1 bedroom apartments that I can actually afford that, with some
walls, could probably be a 2 bedroom. Does anyone have experience with that
kind of upgrade/renovation? Even if it's just false walls (nothing
structural)?

~~~
arosier
I installed a “sleeping loft” in our 375SF studio apartment to make a bit more
room for my wife and son. 11ft ceilings make a big difference there.

I’ve also been looking into getting a 1bd and installing false walls to make
it a 2 bedroom.

~~~
quickthrower2
Wow. 375SF is tiny for a family. Even with a sleeping loft.

~~~
arosier
Ya, definitely not your traditional style of living but it works for us. We
really take advantage of the SF weather and public areas to "extend" our
living space outside for most of the year.

We're a young family (1.5 Y/o) so probably won't last too long, although I do
like the idea of seeing how creative we can get with the space especially if
we have another kid.

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Pokepokalypse
Naw.

Just keep paying workers more.

End of problem.

~~~
Tempest1981
It is an interesting juxtaposition -- companies worth hundreds of billions,
whose workforce can't afford a place to live.

And who gets richer when those companies' profits surge? Well, the richest 10%
of Americans own 84% of all stocks.

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skookumchuck
The web page is too clever for me. It just hangs.

