
This is probably the worst US flood storm ever, and I’ll never be the same - dreamcompiler
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/08/this-is-probably-the-worst-us-flood-storm-ever-and-ill-never-be-the-same/
======
randcraw
It's hard to get a complete picture of how much destruction Houston has seen.
The numbers that impressed me most:

\- Approx 30% of Harris County is underwater, maybe 50% of the city of
Houston. As the article said, only 20% of homeowners have flood insurance.

\- Estimate of damage to Houston is $160 billion. (In 2001, Allison damage
cost $5 billion.) Katrina damage ran $108 billion, and was spread over a
larger area than Harvey.

Houston will need a decade or longer to rebuild, based on the aftermaths of
Allison and Katrina.

~~~
efefefe
>only 20% of homeowners have flood insurance.

Whoa. So, what happens? You're up a creek without a paddle or do you sell the
land or...? Seems crippling to that 80% that live in Houston.

~~~
nvahalik
Most people will likely qualify for Disaster Assistance[1].

The issue is that flooding is a hard thing to cover because it's an expensive
risk to ensure. Plus unlike things like tornadoes, hail storms, or theft,
floods _always_ affect a large number of people. Private insurance pretty much
refuse to cover these types of things because it's hard to spread stuff out.
That's why stuff like the NFIP[2] and the TWIA[3] exist—because the government
can pool it over the entire area (at least, in theory).

[1]: [https://www.disasterassistance.gov](https://www.disasterassistance.gov)

[2]:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Flood_Insurance_Progr...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Flood_Insurance_Program)

[3]: [https://www.twia.org](https://www.twia.org)

------
Mz
For anyone thinking the pronouncement that Houston will never be the same is
mere hyperbole and hand-wringing: At one time, Galveston was a prominent,
prosperous city. Then it was hit by a hurricane and was never the same:

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galveston,_Texas](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galveston,_Texas)

 _On September 8, 1900, the island was struck by a devastating hurricane. This
event holds the record as the United States ' deadliest natural disaster. The
city was devastated, and an estimated 6,000 to 8,000 people on the island were
killed.

Despite attempts to draw investment to the city after the hurricane, Galveston
never returned to its levels of national importance or prosperity._

~~~
dreamcompiler
Okay, reality check time. Houston is the ninth busiest port in the US [0],
it's the epicenter of the biggest petroleum refining region in the US [1], it
has a huge banking and white-collar infrastructure, it contains a bunch of
world-class universities [2], and has the largest medical center in the world
[3].

None of this was true for Galveston in 1900 except the bit about being a port.
Houston has taken a big hit, but it's not leaving the global stage.

[0] [http://www.nglog.com/about-
us/the_usas_busiest_ports](http://www.nglog.com/about-
us/the_usas_busiest_ports)

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_refining_in_the_Unit...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_refining_in_the_United_States)

[2] [https://www.visithoustontexas.com/about-houston/colleges-
and...](https://www.visithoustontexas.com/about-houston/colleges-and-
universities/)

[3]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Medical_Center](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Medical_Center)

~~~
Mz
Saying _it will never be the same_ is not the same as saying _it will leave
the global stage._ I can't fathom where that leap of logic comes from. The
only point I was making is that cities can be permanently significantly
altered by a single disaster. It has happened before. Galveston is not the
only example, it just readily came to mind because it is close to Houston.

If you want another example: London was permanently altered by the Great Fire
of London, which is credited with helping make it one of the most modern and
powerful cities on the planet. But, in most cases, disasters don't
dramatically improve a city and most people find my Shirley Temple-esque
tendency to look on the bright side pretty offensive when they are having a
crisis. So, I try to keep that in mind.

~~~
dreamcompiler
> I can't fathom where that leap of logic comes from.

I came from your comparison with Galveston, which was quite prominent on the
world stage before 1900 but never was afterward. Of course Houston will be
changed by Harvey, but the kind of change that happened to Galveston is wholly
inapplicable to Houston.

~~~
Mz
We don't really know what the future of Houston will look like post Harvey.
Only time will tell how applicable the comparison to Galveston is in various
metrics. Humans are notoriously bad at predicting the future.

------
nvahalik
I wonder how many people will simply be unable to get insurance after this.
From SPECIAL PROCEDURES FOR TARGETED REPETITIVE LOSS PROPERTIES[1], there are
some reasons why a house that could be completely ineligible for flood
coverage:

> 1\. Four or more paid losses of more than $1,000 each; or

> 2\. Two losses within a 10-year period that, in the aggregate, equal or
> exceed the current value of the insured property; or

> 3\. Three or more losses that, in the aggregate, equal or exceed the current
> value of the insured property.

> The loss history includes all ownership of the property since 1978 or since
> the building’s construction if built after 1978.

Given the last 2 decades or so, that 20% may be a high water mark (forgive the
pun).

[1]:
[https://www.fema.gov/pdf/nfip/manual200505/20rl.pdf](https://www.fema.gov/pdf/nfip/manual200505/20rl.pdf)

~~~
Dylan16807
Those standards are really confusing.

Losing the house is okay if it's a single flood, but adding on a couple $1
losses will make you ineligible??

And $4000 is extremely low in comparison. You'd think someone that pays
>$500/year for insurance and has a $1000 claim every decade is a great
customer.

------
rini17
Economically speaking, I think the biggest threat was to refineries. Were they
seriously damaged? With due respect to victims, houses and offices are easier
to rebuild.

~~~
MrFoof
Houston also contains nearly 40% of all US polyethylene and nearly 50%
polypropylene production. That is a tremendous amount of production capacity
for plastic and polymers going offline.

~~~
cwkoss
Which companies do you think will pick up this demand? Do domestic companies
have capacity to scale up production, or will more be imported from overseas?

