
The idea maze - mh_
http://cdixon.org/2013/08/04/the-idea-maze/
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kloncks
There are times when reasoning by analogy isn't optimal. Elon Musk famously
preferred going through "first principles" and I find this likely leads to a
better more innovative end product.

Take payments (my industry) for example. There are countless startups that are
working on something that enhances or optimizes whatever pre-existing solution
we have today. That's thinking by analogy. It's faster and easier but you're
constrained by the limits of whatever you're comparing to.

Then there's thinking from first principles. From scratch. Take what Dwolla is
trying to build for example. "If we were to build the Visa or Mastercard
network today, what would it look like?"

A lot of the new innovative systems in payments, like Bitcoins, started by
thinking of first principles rather than analogy.

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OvidNaso
Analogy is probably not the right word for what you are describing. Analogy
deals with subjects in separate domains. It's the application of information
or a relationship from one domain to an unrelated one. Bitcoins applied the
relationships that encrypted information share to monetary transactions. A
perfect example of analogous thinking.

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noelwelsh
I like to think of startups as research projects. You start with a hypothesis,
which is usually "there is sufficient market for <idea>". Then you do the
experiments to prove the hypothesis, which is the actual startup. How you go
about proving the hypothesis is just as important as the hypothesis you start
with. In the world of science, if your experiments have flaws they won't be
accepted as proof of your hypothesis. In the startup world, flaws don't
necessarily discredit the hypothesis, but then fail to prove it when you go
bust.

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ghc
This is the foundation for the Lean Startup methodology espoused by Steve
Blank, Eric Reis, Ash Maurya and others, but until recently it has been
articulated in the jargon of the business community such that it is difficult
to see in terms of the scientific method.

I think Ash Maurya's upcoming book, "The Customer Factory", is perhaps the
first attempt to codify the Lean Startup entirely in terms of how a scientist
builds and tests models. As a technical person, not a business person, I am
eagerly awaiting this book in hopes that it frames the startup process in the
same ways that I tend to see the world (in terms of axioms, hypotheses and
experiments).

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lobotryas
Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're looking forward to this book reinforcing
your worldview instead of challenging it?

That's fine, I'm just surprised if my interpretation is correct.

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ghc
Well, I don't expect _The Customer Factory_ to be a philosophy book. Instead,
I expect it to be full of practical ideas and tools. Most business books, even
those about Lean, start from what I see as an alien perspective. Sure, I can
glean some valuable insight and maybe put it into practice, but it doesn't
speak my language. A practical book on business models that speaks my language
would be a valuable thing indeed.

~~~
lobotryas
Ah, I understand now, that's a good point! When it comes to "ideas as tools",
finding a source that's on the same wavelength as you does make a huge
difference.

And hey, if we end up reaching your goals, then who cares what book helped us
get there? We win and just like with a firefight, who is left standing is all
that matters at the end of the day.

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ajhit406
I have always described the process of finding product-market fit as an
"elucidation" of sorts, so I use the Legend of Zelda maps as my analogy
instead of a maze.

For those (unfortunate few) who aren't familiar, the Zelda level maps would be
separated into separate blocks or "screens" that presented a unique stage of
gameplay. After visiting a screen, that particular segment would become
visible on your map.

I prefer this analogy because it encourages looking at the entire map (3rd
person) instead of thinking only of your current position in the "maze/level"
(1st person).

Chris naturally made this abstraction when considering how to "map out the
idea maze", but I think it's an important distinction.

I think the most efficient manner of elucidating squares on your map is by
engaging customers. Engaging them with a prototype is a phenomenal exercise,
but requires more time and resources then just engaging them with a
questionnaire over coffee or via an online survey. The manner in which we most
efficiently uncover these "maps" is substantial enough for its own essay.
Chris touched on a few of them but I think they are varied and infinitely
complex.

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dheer01
This is the wrong/dangerous way about thinking about startups. The right way
is the Elon Musk - first principle way.

There is really no point figuring out the maze - it won't help you in your
startup. Even the best founders get the big breaks very very rarely - and
often it is a result of the founders personal motivations/vision articulating
in a product for which the world is ready (for no mistake/contributions of the
founders). History is littered with the best founders who wasted years pursing
an idea whose time hasn't come or were not able to reach scale due to some
quirk of the markets. (Steve Jobs, Larry Page - Google Plus )

The best and the only strategy for founders is to think by first principles -
with a healthy disdain for all rules that mankind has found till now. This
will not guarantee that you will not waste years of your life - that is an
occupational hazard and "to stare into the abyss and chew glass" comes with
the territory - but as a strategy this is your best shot.

~~~
filip01
Agree - to assume based on analogy seems risky. Taking the Musk "first
principle" road and then navigating based on feedback the "lean" way is what
makes the most sense to me.

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mashmac2
Seems like a similar idea to seeing the future because you're living in it -
domain knowledge and connections are a powerful thing; the 'Self' part of PG's
essay on startup ideas
([http://paulgraham.com/startupideas.html](http://paulgraham.com/startupideas.html))
is about this, albeit from a different angle.

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mathattack
An early mentor of mine stressed the importance of judgment, and pattern
recognition. I think that's the point here. In the end, despite all the data
you still have to have the right intuition. It can come from intelligence, and
it can come from experience. Usually it's good intelligence applied to bad
experiences.

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ganeumann
This is awesome advice. All of the popular company-starting frameworks out
there right now are popularizations of the age-old idea of de-risking. Shed
risk as quickly and cheaply as you can; if you are going to fail, fail fast.
But the one thing both Blank and Ries seem to gloss over is that the cheapest
way to de-risk is to do it before you have a MVP, before you start doing
customer discovery. Do it by knowing the industry and market and customer
you're targeting. 50% of this can often be done in a few days of reading stuff
you've searched on the Web. And an additional 30% of it can be done by talking
to knowledgable people and asking them what they think of your idea. (The
other 20% you have to learn the hard way, by doing.)

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newernpguy
We have seen that the premium on ideas is going down - it is all boiling down
to execution slowly. Our experience with Firespotting has shown that people
are increasingly sharing good quality ideas.

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devgutt
> The benefits of learning about the maze generally far outweigh the risks of
> having your idea stolen.

Any evidence for that? Stealth mode seems to work pretty well in big companies

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pbreit
The author is an entrepreneur and vc...presumably drawing on a wealth of
experience. The article is specifically about small, not big, companies.

The whole meme of "evidence please" is annoying. A blog post is not a research
paper.

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devgutt
This is not a meme, if can't back up EVERYTHING you claim, please, keep for
yourself. Evidence is mandatory always, in any situation, no exception.

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pbreit
Do you have any evidence to back up that assertion?

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devgutt
yes:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method)

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daemon13
Good article except for the stealth mode advice.

The best answer to "What's your secret sauce?" \- domain experience...

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ojbyrne
Just that phrase is the best thing about the startup engineering course.

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dylanhassinger
awesome post!!!

