
Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning (1973) [pdf] - eternalban
http://www.sympoetic.net/Managing_Complexity/complexity_files/1973%20Rittel%20and%20Webber%20Wicked%20Problems.pdf
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Bartweiss
I would propose a name change here, perhaps from the article title to the the
pdf title of "Rittel and Webber - Wicked Problems (1973) [pdf]".

For those unfamiliar, this is the social policy paper which formalized the
concept of 'wicked problems'; complex issues where possible solutions are
innumerable, costly, and impossible to prove except by demonstration. Most
famously, these are issues like ozone depletion or pandemic outbreaks which
demand urgent, large-scale responses and don't leave room for sequential
attempts. But they also include cases like high crime rates, where the root of
the issue is disputed and every attempt at a solution changes the nature of
the problem.

It's an extremely interesting work, and a seminal (if often ignored) part of
the switch from High Modernist attempts at direct social planning to
complexity-respecting ideas like New Urbanism.

~~~
tunesmith
Is this the same sort of thing where a solution may require several necessary
prerequisites, none of which are sufficient? Meaning, you may successfully
complete eight prerequisites and see no change in the problem, which would be
discouraging, until you finish the 9th final prerequisite at which point it
would be solved.

~~~
Bartweiss
Those situations are certainly _relevant_ to 'wicked problems', yes. I grabbed
a few highlights from what was formally a ten-point definition; Rittel and
Webber managed to be impressively restrictive while still including a lot of
problems.

I think several of the rules they give imply wicked problems are likely,
though not necessarily, multi-causal issues like you describe:

 _1\. There is no definitive formulation of a wicked problem.

2\. Wicked problems have no stopping rule.

4\. There is no immediate and no ultimate test of a solution to a wicked
problem.

6\. Wicked problems do not have an enumerable (or an exhaustively describable)
set of potential solutions, nor is there a well-described set of permissible
operations that may be incorporated into the plan.

8\. Every wicked problem can be considered to be a symptom of another problem.

9\. The existence of a discrepancy representing a wicked problem can be
explained in numerous ways. The choice of explanation determines the nature of
the problem's resolution._

1, 8, and 9 imply that the scope of wicked problems is undefined and linked to
the choice of solution, so we should problems with multiple causes. 2, 4, and
6 imply that we can't be sure when a solution is adequately tested or a
solution space is exhausted, so we can never eliminate the possibility that
the solution is "all our measures plus one more." What's more, the difficulty
of assessment means we might never _know_ if a solved wicked problem was
multicausal, or if the final measure which produced change might have sufficed
on its own.

And you're definitely right that multi-factor solutions are a big part of what
makes this harder. It's not enough to run antismoking ads, or raise tobacco
taxes, or implement black box warnings; it could always be some combination
that mattered. And if you try all three and smoking rates drop, you can't
backtrack to find out, because the problem might be hysteresic - what if the
taxes stopped smoking, but the ads plus warnings prevent it?

The implications for ongoing problems, from drug addiction to gun violence,
aren't terribly comforting. Not only can we not try _each_ solution, we can't
be sure a measure we've _already_ tried unsuccessfully is safe to dismiss.

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tsunamifury
Along side of this theory is "All Watched over by Machines of Loving Grace" by
Adam Curtis, which more artistically proposes that ecosystem management with
discrete measurement was the way to manage complex dilemmas. Ultimately he
concludes that each change to the ecosystem so fundamentally changes its
components (which couldn't really be measured in the first place) such that
the problem erratically changes and outcomes are unpredictable. He uses this
to suppose that AI is a failed attempt to optimize these sort-of-NP complete
problems of cooperation.

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zacharyaustin11
tl;dr but think I will read the whole thing later.

"Planning is a component of politics. There is no escaping that truism."

homogeneity is the false assumption behind many issues. a personal favourite
is the pilot seat designed for the average man that fit no-one

"Wicked problems are unique."

Complex systems deserve time unfortunately political systems are not aligned
with time scales neccassary to solve most if not all wicked problems

