
ComScore: Android Passes iOS For Overall U.S. Smartphone Subscribers - ph0rque
http://techcrunch.com/2011/02/07/comscore-android-passes-ios-for-overall-u-s-smartphone-subscribers/
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whatusername
Meanwhile, in Australia......

The iPhone is _the_ dominant smart phone. (I heard a (unsubstantiated) rumour
that it is now the dominant phone with > 40% of the entire market)

Why? Because it's available on every carrier, $0 upfront, and when you
actually have decent networks -- Antenna-Gate becomes a non-issue.

That ATT exclusivity has really hurt Apple - it would be interesting to see
how much they can reverse the trend.

~~~
ZeroGravitas
Last time I looked at Australian figures Apple had slowly grown to just over
30% share after three years while android gained 15% _last quarter_ to give it
over 20%.

Android will need to grow past iPhone in sales before it can start to catch up
in installed base (just as the Nokia installed base is probably still higher
than iPhone right now), but due to market growth I'd give it a couple of
quarters once you pass in sales.

This trajectory hardly supports the "people only buy Android because iPhone
isn't on Verizon" theory.

Some Australian stats for Q3 last year provided by IDC:
[http://www.idc.com/about/viewpressrelease.jsp?containerId=pr...](http://www.idc.com/about/viewpressrelease.jsp?containerId=prAU22603210&sectionId=null&elementId=null&pageType=SYNOPSIS)

It seems to be roughly mimicking the US situation except lagged by a quarter
and with Nokia switching places with Rim as the fading leader.

Also, I liked this quote from the guy at IDC _"It's looking like next year
it's going to be close between Android and Apple but I would be inclined to
say that Apple will keep its lead, although we have been under pretty much
every quarter with our Android forecast so anything really is possible at this
stage," said Novosel. "Given the way that it is growing, this time next year
Android could be number one."_

~~~
ZeroGravitas
A more recent article (from today), same IDC analyst, he seems to have brought
forward his estimate for Android taking the lead by 6 months, and become more
sure of his prediction too:

 _"Novosel said he expected Android to become the number one smartphone
operating system in Australia by the middle of this year"_

[http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/mobiles/androids-
attack-g...](http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/mobiles/androids-attack-
google-nexus-s-to-hit-australia-20110208-1aknf.html)

~~~
whatusername
Thanks. The other analyst quoted in that article says 2013: "Foad Fadaghi,
telecommunications analyst at the Australian firm Telsyte, said he expected
Google's Android platform to "match or exceed" iPhone sales in Australia by
2013."

Are you seeing many android phones? (I assume you're in Aus)? I can think of
maybe 3 people who have one (all geeks - 2 of them Nexus1 imports).

I assume that Android will grow (and certainly in the lower-end, pre-paid
space...) But I'm really not seeing it.

~~~
ZeroGravitas
I'm not in Australia, I just happened to read an article a while back about
how well the iPhone was doing in Australia (on the occasion of them passing
Nokia) and I was somewhat amazed that the figures in that very article told a
completely different story from the headline. Particularly as I'd regularly
seen anecdotes online about how Australia was such an amazing market for the
iPhone.

It reminded me of Firefox passing IE in Europe recently, the real story was
Chrome rising and taking share from IE so it dropped while Firefox was mostly
flat. If you're a reporter you'd want to stick with the facts, and Firefox is
the most popular browser in Europe (by some measures) but as a tech watcher
the future trend is also interesting, though speculative.

As for "I don't see Androids" I've heard that from people in every country.
Market research surveys like IDC may have drawbacks and caveats, but they're
way beyond anecdotal observation. My anecdote is that the geeks bought iPhones
because they were the early market for a mobile browsing device but now they
are transitioning to Android. Android is also expanding the market at the low
end, leaving iPhone in the middle.

I noticed that other quote but I really wasn't sure what to make of it. IDC
are one of the standard guys that everyone quotes for global numbers when they
publish them. Telsyte I've never heard of. The fact that he's predicting a
number for the end of this year, that IDC is reporting as exceeded at the end
of Q3 last year is somewhat puzzling. Their actual press release they put out
is still quite positive about Android, just with less numbers and evidence
(their FAQ about their methodology simply says "Updating...").

 _Telsyte: Android smartphone sales to take off in 2011_

<http://www.telsyte.com.au/?p=957>

~~~
whatusername
If you're still following.. I just noticed this with some real numbers.

Responding to a question from a journalist, Thodey said Telstra had sold some
400,000 Apple iPhones in the second half of 2010 and registered some 70,000
iPads. New iPhones was 400,000, the CEO said. And if you want to keep going,
290,000-something Android smartphones in the first half as well.

So Androids is definately catching up.

Telstra are the Ex-Govt Monopoly and have an awful lot of land-line
customers.. But they have poured a bunch of money into their mobile network in
the last 5 years and dropped their prices enough that they are almost price-
competive + better coverage.... But it is still the expensive network --
someone like Vodaphone would likely skew cheaper (potentially leaning towards
Android some more)

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ajg1977
I wonder what the figures for iOS would be if you included non-phone devices
such as the iPod touch and iPad.

Come to think of it, maybe these should start to be classed as smartphones.
After all, if a smartphone is a phone that can act as a mobile computer then a
mobile computer that can act as a phone should qualify too.

~~~
recoiledsnake
Why don't we then add in the worldwide phone share and add windows laptops
because they are mobile computers too? That means Windows has like 80% of the
market cornered.

The headline specifically says US Smartphone marketshare and that statistic is
interesting in itself. There is no need to pollute it just because you don't
like the results.

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headShrinker
... 'Overall U.S. Smartphone Subscribers [that can't update their phones]'. I
am really tired of my new full time job trying to maintain my outdated $500
Android phone with is non-functioning GPS. Samsung is a shitty manufacturer. I
don't want to run their stupid Kies software... but I did. Samsung Galaxy S is
not capable with VM fusion. I don't own Windows native machine. I can't sync
my phone, I can't update my phone, It locksup and freezes, the GPS doesn't
work, I can't copy and paste, it's filled with bloatware and crapware, and on
and on and on. I really can't wait to get my iPhone back. I shouldn't have to
void my warranty, invest hours hacking hardware, and risk bricking just to get
a working communication device. Just to repeat a recent stat 'Android users
running newest version 0.4%. iOS users running the newest version 90%.'

~~~
tensor
On the flip side, the Nexus updates just fine. You don't even need a computer
to do it. Plus, syncing is automatic over the network. No need for itunes.

Finally, you dont' have to void your warranty and risk bricking it just to get
functionality like wireless hotspots, non-market app installation, carrier
unlocks, and new system components and UIs.

~~~
headShrinker
Yes I know. I gave my N1 to my boyfriend when I 'upgraded' to the 'more
advanced' phone. The majority of phone are like my galaxy S not the N1. The
environment seems to have a very deep flaw. Yet there are a bunch of diehards
that cling to the N1 and NS model as the representative of the majority. Then
there are the bunch that believe it's ideal to buy your phone then immediately
flash it with a hacked together unfinished mods running unofficial kernels
that guzzle battery and lockup like grandma's bowls.

