
Intel Tock-Ticks Chipsets Back to 22nm - rbanffy
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-14nm-shortage-h310c,37819.html
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AmVess
The long term issue is they are still two years away from a 10nm server chip
while TSMC are already shipping 7nm parts (roughly equivalent to Intel 10nm).
Further, a return to 22nm chipset production indicates a large disruption in
their product plans, as evidenced by Intel outsourcing production of some of
their 14nm products to TSMC!

Intel certainly gave away a two year process lead that is slipping to two
years behind their competitors, which will certainly put an end to their
lovely fat profit margins.

Intel aren't doomed, but they gave away and will have given away all of their
competitive advantage by sleeping at the wheel.

Further, AMD have abandoned production of their high end server parts at
Global Foundaries, so they will no longer be constrained in process capability
or supply as they were in the past.

It seems that no one in upper management have read the book, "Only the
Paranoid Survive." Maybe it should have been required reading.

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nickik
Its also interesting that this happens right at a time where the switch from
one node to another takes increasingly longer and viewer people adopt it.

And anybody can now make chips in the most advanced nodes. There are startups
now who are already working on TSMC7nm.

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kingosticks
Really!? What startup can afford those mask costs?

~~~
nickik
Esperanto Technologies

They are basically doing a AI chip with 8-16 general cores and 4000 floating
point vector cores (probably with Tensor Type support on the Vectors). All in
RISC-V.

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stirlo
It’s amazing to see the implications lay out first hand of a single
manufacturing defect. Intel was the undisputed king until 10nm and now they
are gasping for breath in the competitive environment. The stockholders must
be extremely discounted that a single process change could remove such a
massive competitive moat around their business

~~~
rbanffy
It looks like the 10nm process problems caught Intel very unprepared, which
suggests bad news were not traveling as quickly and as far as they should.
This is an issue with companies above a certain size.

~~~
barry0079
Nobody wants to be frank with the people above them.

~~~
Retric
Alternatively, people get to the top in part because they where lucky, which
makes them more optimistic than they should be.

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Nokinside
From stockholders point of view, this is still just a big glitch that is
possible to fix and recover.

Intel total revenue grew 14.9% in 20182Q, competition grew 18.08% in the same
quarter, so Intel is slowly losing ground and there is potential for trouble.
The real competitive moat is Intel's profit margin relative to the
competition. Intel has been undisputed king in the profit margins and still
continues to be. 60% Gross margin (20% above TSMC).

Intel has been beaten technologically before. AMD did it years ago. Intel
responded by lowering prices, and removing profits from AMD's technological
triumph. When AMD was financially in the ropes, Intel increased its profit
margins again.

As long as Intel maintains 10-15% margin over competition it can cut into
margins and compete with low price. Only after Intel loses the margins it will
become just another chip maker.

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kllrnohj
> Intel has been beaten technologically before. AMD did it years ago. Intel
> responded by lowering prices, and removing profits from AMD's technological
> triumph.

And, you know, with illegal anti-competitive practices (
[https://www.extremetech.com/computing/184323-intel-stuck-
wit...](https://www.extremetech.com/computing/184323-intel-stuck-
with-1-45-billion-fine-in-europe-for-unfair-and-damaging-practices-against-
amd) in the EU and
[https://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/05/technology/05chip.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/05/technology/05chip.html)
in the US)

So assuming they don't try that stunt again they're going to be in a tougher
spot competitively than they were last time.

~~~
Nokinside
You are mixing two things Intel does with low prices. One is legal and one is
not. Intel used both Against AMD during the Opteron and the Athlon 64 era.

Intel is absolutely allowed to compete with low prices and cutting into profit
margins.

Intel is not allowed to to pay rebates in exchange of being single supplier,
or attempting to restrict access from the competitors.

The difference is between “aggressive competition” and “antitrust abuse” as
the source you provide clarifies.

Intel has the margins that allow it to compete aggressively and legally.

~~~
Nomentatus
Actually, low prices can be illegal, too. It's illegal to lowball prices to
cost or below (dumping) either - and the rebates are part of what determines
cost, not just a possible offense themselves.

~~~
loeg
Do you have more information on that claim? It seems difficult to believe
given the plethora of VC-funded companies selling products below cost in order
to grow market share.

~~~
bradknowles
Private companies have much more freedom to do as they wish with regards to
price dumping in their local markets, as compared to public companies.

~~~
loeg
Can you point to a specific law here? Thanks.

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tomc1985
Wow, Ryzen has been cruising along at 14nm for a little while now. Sucks for
Intel... never thought I'd see the day when AMD chips are made with a smaller
process than Intel

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Joeri
This is the chipset, not the cpu, which is brought from 14nm back up to 22nm
to make room for more cpu production at 14nm.

From what I can tell AMD’s chipsets are at 55nm, so intel is still at a
smaller process node for chipsets.

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Tempest1981
Just hypothetically, to better understand chip fab:

If Intel wanted to fab a CPU using TSMC, what would be involved?

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kingosticks
A major redesign. TSMC will have different IP available, particularly IO and
RAM cells. Also different packaging options: they may not support the same die
and/or interposer sizes. The test methodology and tooling may also be very
different to what they are used to working with. Switching fab is a huge deal,
the time cost would be big. They can of course gobble up the financial costs
no problem. However, it does assume TSMC would even have sufficient capacity
for Intel.

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zelon88
Won't the move to TSMC give China the exact leverage it needs to steal Intel
technology like the DuPont discussion we had the other day?

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seanmcdirmid
TSMC is Taiwanese, not Chinese.

