
Many Planes Are Still Flying, Nearly Empty - RickJWagner
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/heres-why-so-many-planes-are-still-flying-nearly-empty.html
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technicaldonut
I will be flying from east US to Germany this weekend. (Planned move and visa
is running out so no choice). So far I'm the only person on the transatlantic
plane. Interestingly enough the local US-US flight seems to still have a lot
of passengers on it (50ish%)

~~~
rwmj
In 2011 I took a flight to Boston which happened to be on the same day that
William and Kate got married. I don't know if that was the reason, but the
flight was almost empty (apparently under 30 passengers on a 737). It was
annoying for a couple of reasons: Firstly they didn't upgrade anyone, even
though first and business was basically empty. Secondly, the flight attendants
were constantly badgering me in case I wanted something, when really what I
wanted was a bigger seat and to be left alone. Anyway, good luck on your 1
passenger flight.

~~~
bluGill
They can't upgrade people on an empty flight without upsetting the balance of
the plane. I've been on flights where we didn't leave the gate until people
downgraded so the front wasn't overfull. (I was the only person flying
economy, first and economy plus was full so everybody was in front of the
wings)

~~~
lordlimecat
I'm having trouble believing that the margins are so close that the position
of a 200lb mass on a 68000 lb plane is a significant factor in anything. If
true it would suggest that using the lavatories would be a significant event
requiring coordination with the stewards and pilot.

~~~
quacked
30*150 = 4500 lb. There are cases of planes crashing because everyone rushed
to the front or the back to avoid smoke.

I know it's not the same as a commercial airliner, but I used to teach hang
gliding on the beach and we'd sometimes get a little packed sand in the back
of the keel (which is the name for the central bar that the wings were
mirrored across). The total weight of the student plus the glider could get up
to ~280 lb, and the amount of packed sand would be less than a pound or two,
but the flight characteristics of the gliders would change drastically, to the
point where we could barely get them in the air.

As another commenter notes below, the few people moving around the cabin is
less about control ability and safety than it is about fuel efficiency.

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kalium-xyz
There are people still trying to get home, this is a crucial service for them
and specialists who are required around the world to keep things running.

~~~
dkersten
I understand the desire to get home, but, doesn’t that defeat the whole
purpose if quarantine? The virus doesn’t care that you’re not at home.

~~~
standardUser
The "whole purpose" of lockdowns are to reduce the transmission rate to a
manageable level. Not to zero. Broad but imperfect compliance has proven to be
more than sufficient to achieve this. Many nations are now loosening
restrictions because the transmission rate has been pushed so low that there
is room to increase it without overwhelming healthcare capacity.

~~~
Zhyl
Yes, to put this in perspective, each person has 'x' transmission
opportunities on every journey to/from their lockdown base. 'x' can be
expressed as 'x = n + m' for n people they would meet along their journey plus
m people that have interacted and potentially infected every surface they
touch. n and m are smaller for every journey not taken. MUCH smaller if people
are broadly compliant with lockdown.

Therefore, even people breaking lockdown (justifiably or unjustifiably) are at
reduced risk of transmission if other people are obeying lockdown.

~~~
dkersten
Right, but at least anecdotally, all of the first ~20 or so cases where I am
were linked to people flying home from Italy.

~~~
Zhyl
Yeah, reality is a weird mix of probability (reducing trips and therefore
likelihood of catching 2019-nCov off of them) and actuality (the path the
virus actually takes - see Patient 31 [1]). Governments have to release
guidance based on the former, but individuals might want to protect against
the latter where possible.

[1] [https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-
CLUSTER...](https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-
CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html)

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tyingq
One of the conditions of the relief money the airlines took was to maintain
reasonable service to their existing US destinations. Another was to protect
jobs through the end of September.

So yes, the planes are empty, but September is the timeframe to watch.

~~~
kbr2000
Takes a deep breath: can anyone explain how costs of maintenaning a fleet like
that on the ground, would way up against flying empty? At what point would it
make sense to "mothball" airplanes for longer term storage?

~~~
tyingq
Doesn't give the costs you're looking for, but this article does a good job of
explaining that even the "mothball" protocol is fairly complicated:
[https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2019/08/12/boein...](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2019/08/12/boeing-737-max-
desert-storage/#11ca967b1e61)

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yodsanklai
I still see quite a few flights from France to international destinations. For
instance, right now AF342 - Paris - Montreal. Technically, France has been in
a rather strict lockdown for a month, and all non-essential trips are strongly
regulated. I really wonder who is in those planes. Canadians finally deciding
to go home? Can they even make it to the airport without getting fined? And
can French people even leave the Shengen area? Let say a French citizen wants
to go to some country that still accept them, can they find a flight and go
there somewhat legally?

~~~
t0mas88
Some are flying mostly for the cargo they transport, so the seats aren't very
full. And then indeed they would take Canadians (or Americans flying via
Canada) that want to go home. Cargo is also medical equipment etc that is
really necessary in other places.

If you look at a flight-tracking site you'll notice Atlantic crossings
starting at FL380 or even higher, for example now BA287 is at 40,000ft just
coasting out in Ireland. That's not the normal altitude, typically we enter
Oceanic airspace with an initial altitude of 35,000 or something similar with
maximum possible (but not efficient) being 36ish.

~~~
sleepychu
Is the implication that in this weight config (just cargo and empty seats) it
is efficient to fly at 40,000ft?

~~~
t0mas88
Yes, entering Oceanic you basically tell them: "Request track Delta, Flight
level 350, Able 370, second choice track Charly"

Translation: I want this route, the best altitude for me is 35,000 ft and at
my current weight the maximum I can climb to is 37,000 ft. That optimum
altitude is calculated by the flight management system.

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gbronner
I bought a jfk sfo ticket last week. By Sunday, Delta had lopped off almost
all of the transcontinental service, had eliminated red eyes, and replaced
most planes with a220s, which are the smallest main line jet they use.

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tim333
I wonder how much comes down to the legalities of refunds and compensation. If
the flight goes and you don't get on it then you lose your ticket money
usually but if the airline cancels then they have to refund I think.

In my own case I have a flight from Singapore to London on May 30 approx with
BA and I can't get to Singapore as it's closed for transit. If BA fly and I
can't get there I'm not sure I can do much but if they don't fly I can
probably get compensation like the EU standard 600 euro for a delayed flight.
I think BA are still flying emptyish at the moment.

~~~
dsego
According to this pilot on youtube, that is one of the reasons, they don't
have to refund. Another reason is to keep the crew and planes current and not
have to retrain pilots or do additional maintenance checks on the planes later
on. These seem to be required by law after a longer period of not flying.

*[https://youtu.be/x5HNUjVEPyQ](https://youtu.be/x5HNUjVEPyQ)

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chawco
Everyone is focusing on the aircraft, but the pilots are also super important
here. They need to maintain a certain number of hours every 90 days, IIRC, in
order to be flight ready. If not, they need to do a refresher in a simulator.
As I’m sure everyone is familiar after the 737 max debacle, there is a
shortage of simulators. This would mean it would take months or perhaps even a
year to get all pilots recertified for commercial flight. That’s not a great
situation to be in, and easily solved by keeping them flying.

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aazaa
Shortly after 9/11 was a period of reduced air travel that affected air
quality in measurable ways.

Has air traffic dropped off enough to log similar changes?

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chmaynard
Perhaps these airlines and their partners could repurpose some of their large
jets for freight and acquire smaller jets to ferry passengers around. Small
commercial aircraft manufacturers such as Embraer might turn out to be a good
investment.

~~~
tyingq
The air freight market isn't doing so well either:
[https://www.aircargonews.net/data/worldacd-march-a-month-
lik...](https://www.aircargonews.net/data/worldacd-march-a-month-like-no-
other-in-aviation-history/)

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ryguytilidie
I understand a lot of the repatriation flights, but I'm still seeing multiple
OAK-LAS/SFO-LAS per day. Who is flying between these cities right now...?

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bjelkeman-again
Sweden’s largest airport at Stockholm now has a total of seven flights between
now and the end of the day (another five hours). All regional flights. We
normally get at least one flight every two minutes, just landing on one runway
(I live under one of the flight paths). Normally they carry 71000 passengers
per day and have 17500 employees at the airport.

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drewg123
How far in advance are the airlines cancelling flights? I've looked at flight
cancellations lately, and it looks like about 30-50% of US domestic flights
are being cancelled. I haven't really seen anybody talking about this.

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dayofthedaleks
Can any recent airline passengers comment on whether airports are using the
reduced volume to enforce social distancing in customs, boarding, and TSA
lineups?

I flew back from Mexico mid-March and going through the sweaty scrum unmasked
felt a bit like being in Brunner's _The Sheep Look Up_.

~~~
tyingq
They are, but the problem is much easier. Typical load factors (% of filled
seats) were 80% prior to all this.

They are now single digits. And, that's after massive amounts of reductions to
flight schedules.

Boarding 10 people onto a plane with 130 seats with social distancing isn't so
hard.

Similar for the ticket counters and TSA.

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ForHackernews
God, what a waste. Airplanes are bad enough for climate change when they
actually carry people.

~~~
iso1631
Many flights around the world that are continuing to carry cargo

For example

"The number of cargo-only flights at Heathrow has surged to five times normal
levels, with the airport now saying it is prioritising medical supplies as
passenger travel grinds to a halt."

[https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/14/heathrow-
pas...](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/14/heathrow-passenger-
demand-expected-to-plunge-by-90-per-cent-in-april-covid-19)

~~~
ForHackernews
This article is about empty passenger flights, not cargo flights carrying
vital medical supplies.

~~~
afterburner
Passenger flights also carry cargo.

~~~
ForHackernews
According to the article, these flights are running empty for legal and
regulatory reasons, not because they are carrying cargo.

~~~
iso1631
So you're saying "flights running empty for legal and regulatory reasons are
running empty for legal and regulatory reasons"

There may be some that are, although this article says the flights are upto
10% full. Given the average car is only 20% full that doesn't sound a terribly
low amount.

The article also says

* One reason to keep so many flights going is to help the airlines implement their policies that promote social distancing

* Some travel is essential and it’s important that people who truly need to travel by air retain a way to do it.

It then goes on to say that many of the "13 Washignton-Boston flights" will be
cancelled. Indeed of the 10 arrivals currently listed on [0], 5 have been
cancelled.

[0] [https://www.massport.com/logan-airport/flights/flight-
status...](https://www.massport.com/logan-airport/flights/flight-status/)

