

A staggering migration – 250M people into Chinese cities in 12-15 years [video] - jaysonelliot
http://www.nytimes.com/video/2013/06/15/world/asia/100000002279849/in-china-a-staggering-migration.html?smid=pl-share

======
ohazi
If the Chinese government can pull this off effectively, without doing
anything too stupid (splitting up families, letting people starve to death,
destroying their inner city economies), then I would see this as a good thing.
The most efficient farming and food-production systems today produce a unit of
food using far fewer resources (people, labor, energy, etc) than were required
in previous decades.

The people who continue to live in rural areas should focus on farming
efficiently for large populations rather than for subsistence. If you can move
the subsistence farmers into cities, and if (this is a big "if") they can work
and earn a decent wage without obliterating the current economy, then they
will more than likely be better off personally, and will consume fewer
resources globally.

I happen to think that this is a very difficult thing to do, and that their
timeline is probably way too optimistic, but I don't think China should be
criticized for trying. They stand to gain tremendously if they can pull it
off.

~~~
austinz
I'm glad to see someone with this point of view. A lot of people don't seem to
realize that there is a huge difference between the idealized American farmer
and the lives of real peasants living in rural China. It's extremely difficult
to run roads, electricity, and water to all these villages, or to provide them
with modern schools and clinics (and corresponding staff) necessary to
implement social welfare that extends beyond the cities.

~~~
reeses
A tour of some of the planned urban areas of China (Chengdu, mentioned in the
article, is a fine example, plus pandas!) along with some of the smaller
villages makes it very clear that the 'average' Chinese farmer is far worse
off than one might expect.

I'm not really sure I have an example for the contemporary United States that
even comes close. I suspect you'd have to change the definition of 'farmer'.
Perhaps a family living in a dilapidated trailer, unemployed, growing cheap,
starchy foods in what little land they can rent, in an area with poor or
nonexistent utilities, would be a more accurate comparison.

Comparing a planned city such as Chengdu with a similar effort elsewhere, say
in India, is another surprise. Ahmedabad is a pretty good example.

I have come to the conclusion that communism is an impediment to human
excellence.[1] However, seeing the extreme levels of poverty that the central
government is trying to resolve, and has resolved to a certain degree, I can
understand the difference in prioritization.

There was a link to a book on cooltools years ago
[http://kk.org/cooltools/archives/461](http://kk.org/cooltools/archives/461)
that I just noticed was available on the Kindle. Poverty is _so_ outside the
understanding of most of us that it's not just about not having nice things.
Poverty in the developing world and in the undeveloped world is so much worse
that it's almost as if an impartial, uninformed observer would wonder if we
are the same species, and I don't base that on skin color, eye shape, gender,
etc.

[1] I don't care if you disagree on this point. I grant you a perpetual,
irrevocable, license to do so.

------
dcc1
You are all missing the point, China is in a construction boom, construction
is the best way to achieve double digit GDP growth, construction and sale of
apartments and houses also lines the pockets of the Party

But of course all of the comments so far have been about the environment, the
Chinese do not give 2 shits about pollution and sustainability, the motive is
clear KEEP THE PARTY IN CONTROL AT ALL COSTS

~~~
Volpe
Oh I'm glad there is now a spokemen for "The Chinese People". Didn't realise
you had a single voice, who frequented HN.

In all seriousness, some tips:

\- Stop being racist

\- go and learn a little bit about Chinese political landscape, and modern
history

\- Reduce your ignorance.

The Chinese (government) care greatly about the environment and the people,
and that is why they have year-on-year improved hundreds of millions of lives
in both health and wealth for the past 60 years.

Yes, they are a 1 party communist political system... but so what, judge by
action, not ideology.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Don't mind Volpe, he calls everyone who talks about China a racist. Its his
way of being friendly on hackernews.

Parent is wrong though, the CCP most definitely cares about the environment;
it has gotten so bad that they are in crisis mode right now. Xi just made a
speech about it this weekend, the gov is taking it very seriously and people
do care, especially here in Beijing.

Corruption, economy, and pollution (include food safety) are the biggest
threats to the CCP's grip on power.

~~~
Volpe
> the Chinese do not give 2 shits about pollution and sustainability

Are you saying that isn't racial prejudice?

I understand you may have a grudge, but how would you describe that?

~~~
untog
I'm pretty sure he was referring to the Chinese government, not individual
Chinese people.

~~~
dcc1
I was talking about the Chinese government, if its people do care about the
environment but try to do something about it they would get labelled as
dissidents and prosecuted. Thats what you get for living in an authoritarian
state keeping its people under thumb in order to further the party

And stop with the "racist" crap, in light of news of widespread NSA
surveilance and changes over last year the USA ain that far behind.

It didnt take long for members of the Ministry of Truth to popup and try to
"reeducate" readers regarding my earlier comments.

~~~
Volpe
> in light of news of widespread NSA surveilance and changes over last year
> the USA ain that far behind.

Oh I see, so we can just generalise about any country because the US is doing
horrible things.

> It didnt take long for members of the Ministry of Truth to popup and try to
> "reeducate" readers regarding my earlier comments.

More wumao bullshit. Just because someone doesn't buy into the US constructed
narrative of "US is good, cares about it's people and the environment, China
is evil and just wants to control the world" they have to be Chinese shills...

How about showing me some data that proves I'm wrong?

EDIT: Here is some that shows I'm right:

[http://www.gapminder.org/world/#$majorMode=chart$is;shi=t;ly...](http://www.gapminder.org/world/#$majorMode=chart$is;shi=t;ly=2003;lb=f;il=t;fs=11;al=30;stl=t;st=t;nsl=t;se=t$wst;tts=C$ts;sp=5.59290322580644;ti=2011$zpv;v=0$inc_x;mmid=XCOORDS;iid=phAwcNAVuyj1jiMAkmq1iMg;by=ind$inc_y;mmid=YCOORDS;iid=phAwcNAVuyj2tPLxKvvnNPA;by=ind$inc_s;uniValue=8.21;iid=phAwcNAVuyj0XOoBL_n5tAQ;by=ind$inc_c;uniValue=255;gid=CATID0;by=grp$map_x;scale=log;dataMin=283;dataMax=110808$map_y;scale=lin;dataMin=18;dataMax=87$map_s;sma=1;smi=1$cd;bd=0$inds=i239_t001970,,,,;i44_t001970,,,,;modified=75)

~~~
dcc1
I never made such an argument, you are the one building strawmen and going off
on a tangent trying to deflect from my point which hits the bullsye

The "Party" (calling them Communist is a bit of a joke by now) only cares
about its own survival and continuing grip on power and control of 1/6th of
the worlds population.

~~~
Volpe
If it only cared about control then why wouldn't it just be doing what North
Korea is doing? Why would it be working so hard to improve things?

It's not a strawman it's very pertinent.

I think you need to read Capital (Marx), before judging whether they are
communist/socialist, either way they call themselves that.

------
milfot
[http://johnquiggin.com/2013/06/16/urbanization-in-
china/](http://johnquiggin.com/2013/06/16/urbanization-in-china/)

clarification by a guy who does numbers for a living..

------
Jack000
Some of my poorer relatives still live on subsistence farms. When I visit my
grandmother she would kill a chicken and cook it for us.

as land values rise in these rural areas some people have become rich very
quickly. People in my hometown have started to fence up land that was
previously unmarked (and worthless). It's an interesting phenomenon.

Not sure what conclusions to draw from the video, just an interesting
anecdote. Things are happening quickly in China, for better or worse - there
are huge differences every time I visit.

------
krob
if people thought Beijing was polluted, wait till this happens. It will be a
permanent fog/smog cloud hovering indefinitely over this plane. If the focus
is on making sure that there are long term "green" goals of making sure people
use human-powered transportation w/ large public transit systems like subways,
trains, bussing systems, then there is potential for this to happen and be
maintainable. Generally speaking the Chinese have done much better than than
Indians have with their supposed democracy in moving their economy along.
India on the other hand has been a general failure, especially in raising the
general population into a better life-cycle. If china does this, and is
successful, it will be a foundation for other large countries to follow.

I'm presuming they are doing something good, and not considering all the cons
that will ensue.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
I doubt those people are coming to Beijing, it just can't take anymore people,
and you have only a limited capacity for jobs and such. More likely they are
going to 2nd/3rd tier cities where crowding/pollution issues are still severe,
just not as bad as Beijing.

------
leke
We can kiss the global environment goodbye now. Why are we even trying to save
it?

~~~
Zigurd
Education of girls and urbanization are the most effective ways to slow the
birth rate. Without doing that, environmental preservation is not going to be
possible.

~~~
rdl
China doesn't have a huge problem with birth rate now. It just has a huge
population.

~~~
leoc
In fact it has the other kind of birth-rate problem, a looming demographic
crunch due in large part to the one-child policy. And of course a mysteeerious
gender imbalance to go with it.

------
ferdo
Because population control always works out so well for the population.

/s

------
blaeks
hehe, source: open street map ^_^

