
Japan's A-Bomb project - nkurz
https://sites.google.com/site/naziabomb/home/japan-s-a-bomb-project
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jrk
This does not read like the investigative work of someone who has actually
read any technical history on the subject. (The Making of the Atomic Bomb is
probably the best scientific history ever written—I cannot recommend it highly
enough.)

First, this totally fails to address the enormous industrial capacity required
for enrichment of sufficient fissile material. It is implausible that
1943-1945 Japan could have achieved anything like this, regardless of
technical expertise. The speculation of multiple stockpiled bombs and at least
one test is far beyond feasible; even if they could have afforded the required
scale of investment, the facilities and staff involved would be too large to
have hidden: it likely would have required literally tens of percent of the
entire Japanese industrial base over this period.

Second, the enriched uranium gun-based design (Little Boy) required more than
1000 tons of uranium oxide ore for the production of a single bomb, which is
as much as the entire supply the author cites (maybe) reaching Japan.

Third, the speculation about bomber delivery seems extremely out of touch.
Even the (much larger-capacity) B-29 required significant adaptation to
deliver the 5-ton Mk 3 (Fat Man) and Little Boy, and, beyond mass, the designs
could only barely fit within its fuselage dimensions.

Much more likely, all of the source reports were the result of rumors and
misunderstandings. The most they could feasibly have built, tested, or hoped
to deliver would have been small dirty bombs (a concept also well-known at the
time). Perhaps they did, and this was the origin of the rumors; perhaps it was
simply hearsay and speculation at a time of atomic fever.

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rdtsc
Speaking of A-Bomb and Japan. It seems modern Japan would be on one those
countries that should have nukes. I know legally they are probably prohibited
(just like they are supposed to have only defensive military forces). But
technologically with nuclear reactors and the level of industrial and
scientific development, it wouldn't take them very long to build one, it seems
to me.

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ceejayoz
I'd call Japan a de-facto nuclear power, as they've easily got the technical
know-how and the materials to become one at will. If they ever lost the US
nuclear umbrella, I suspect they'd have them in short order. It wouldn't be
particularly surprising if they have plans and some parts already in existence
for that contingency.

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bane
My understanding is that Japan hasn't been to successful in space launch,
which also happens to be the main delivery mechanism.

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dnautics
[http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-IIA](http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-IIA)

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jpgvm
For those that can't be bothered:

"The success rate of 95% of the H-2A is on a par with 96.4 percent for the
Atlas V of the United States and 94.9 percent for the European Ariane 5"

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Gravityloss
H-2A is a liquid rocket that is very large, uses finicky cryogenic fuels and
takes many days to prepare for launch.

The much smaller Japanese Mu series is a solid space launcher and provides a
much better technology base for missiles.
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mu_%28rocket%29](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mu_%28rocket%29)

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tedks
>Natsume said Soviets arrived so quickly that they captured seven key
scientists. Russians tortured the scientists by thrusting burning slivers
under their fingertips and _pouring water into their noses_.[20]

Waterboarding: Torture enough for the Soviets.

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mpyne
While I hesitate to add to the speculation, it's interesting in retrospect to
think of how Japan might have used bases they seized at Attu and Adak, Alaska
to help with the problem of making strategic bombing of the U.S. west coast
possible.

Of course, that wasn't the reason the U.S. bothered to eject Japan from the
Aleutian Islands in 1943, but if Japan had really been able to develop a bomb
that would certainly be a useful defensive move.

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Gravityloss
Lots of speculation.

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watersb
As I read this, I'm sitting in Los Alamos. Wow.

