
San Francisco Residents Are Leaving at an Unprecedented Rate - rcarrigan87
https://www.movebuddha.com/blog/sf-outbound-surge-2020/
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exhilaration
Per the article, this is based on an analysis of 1,200 searches done on their
platform. It seems like a stretch to use those figures to reach conclusions
for a city of over 800,000 residents.

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einpoklum
But they are making a year-on-year relative analysis, so even for a non-
representative sample, you can identify a strong trend.

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dllthomas
Maybe it's a demographic shift between people who don't use their platform and
those who do.

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hellisothers
Or that people moving into the city/state are paying moving services while
those leaving are DIY moving.

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cmckn
> last year, there were 980 move searches involving the Bay Area [in the same
> time period]

This is microscopic data to make any sort of claim about migration patterns. I
live in Denver, and read a similar article a few years ago (more people were
moving out than moving in). Didn't seem to have much of an impact on housing
prices or the job market, because it wasn't a sustained, significant trend.

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gremlinsinc
Well, the difference is a bit bigger... so last year 57% were looking to move
out, or 558.

This year it's 1200 * 90% or 1080...that's nearly double.

This is just a sample size though because, I for one have never heard of the
site, so I doubt a ton of people use them for moving needs. A lot probably
will just use U-haul and other resources for their move.

I could see a lot of people wanting to move from SF esp, if they've been laid
off, how could you possibly afford rent in a recession in SF?

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dpeck
anecdotal, but I know some young folks who are planning to pack it up and head
out after their contractually obligated time is over and their lease is up.

My younger sibling, like many, is very annoyed that their early years of
marriage without kids/california adventure is mostly being stuck in a 800 sqft
apt and occasionally walking the dog. They love the bay, but having the small
apartments combined with quarantine has got them reevaluating where they are
and how their lives might look for the next $time while we figure out covid-19
as a country/species.

edit: my bad of the soft/sqft typo. seems my brain was trying to split the
different between small and sqft and flubbed the landing.

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einpoklum
What is an "800 soft" apartment? ... Oh, do you mean 800 square feet? For non-
US readers: That's 74.3 m^2 (square meters), but that figure could:

* include/not include walls

* include/not include balconies

etc.

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paxys
There is an article like this every month, yet the Bay Area is consistently
among the largest growing population centers in the country. I'll believe any
of the claims the author makes once there are numbers to back it up.

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opportune
I think a lot of is is also that if you are going to be WFH for the next
several months, you can save a lot of money by no longer paying San Francisco-
level rent. I know if my lease were expiring now I would not be living here
until my job started telling everyone to come back to the office. I feel like
that's going to have a much bigger effect than VC funding

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TACIXAT
This is exactly what my partner and I did. I'm remote and she is COVID-19
remote, so we're sheltering in place in a city we wanted to see. A furnished
unit is 1k cheaper than our Bay Area rent was. The weather is great and we get
to walk our dog in new parks.

It is an unprecedented time and we're having trouble coming up with reasons to
go back. We moved out there for a big n salary for me. That wasn't the work I
wanted to do so I'm part time now doing what I enjoy. That really throws off
the rent justification though.

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fosk
> But there are many reasons why the region could finally be experiencing a
> shrinking population:

And yet the author is missing the elephant in the room: the incredibly
deteriorating living conditions in a city crammed with drug addicts, human
feces and casual violent aggressions at all hours of the day. A city that
enables the "homeless lifestyle" without any accountability. Homelessness is -
for the most part in San Francisco - a choice and/or a result of mental
illness and drug addiction.

There is of course a certain amount of people that do become homeless because
of lack of housing, but for the most part the city administration has been
gaslighting us on the real causes: drug addiction and homeless lifestyle.

Most of them are not even native from San Francisco, but they come from
elsewhere. I suggest everybody reads this article to learn more about the long
history of criminality in San Francisco, enabled by the city officials:
[https://www.city-journal.org/san-francisco-homelessness](https://www.city-
journal.org/san-francisco-homelessness)

Edit: Everybody in San Francisco talks about the rights of the homeless, but
where are my rights as a lawful tax payer who cannot bring his son to the park
without risking his life by stepping on a needle?

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aaomidi
How do you propose to solve said drug addiction and homeless lifestyle?

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thrownaway954
give them the compassion and support that any one of us deserves as human
beings. if they are mental ill, then get them on the medication they need. if
they want a job, give them one. if they are on drugs, get them into a program
like NA and give them the medication to combat the withdrawl. everyone
deserves the help the desire. there is no reason why we should putting each
other down.

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ueueshitashita
> if they are mental ill, then get them on the medication they need.

What if they don't want to be on medication?

> if they are on drugs, get them into a program like NA and give them the
> medication to combat the withdrawl.

What if they have no interest in doing that?

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asdff
Right now, nothing. If you build enough shelter space, by law, you no longer
can make these decisions. If there is enough shelter space to house the
homeless population, the choices become go to the shelter or go to jail. This
is why we need to build more shelters as soon as possible.

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MattGaiser
A friend considered it after graduation. 3500 a month for a place in rent.

Eventually even with tech salaries that doesn’t make sense. He went to
Seattle.

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opportune
Should note that's basically the price for a full 1b to yourself in a nice and
convenient area in the city. Most people who move here after graduation are
probably paying closer to half that due to living with roommates/not in the
super convenient and expensive areas.

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MattGaiser
Fair, but he is paying $1500 for that same thing in Seattle.

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bernardom
As soon as COVID is over we're out.

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ulfw
I'm legit curious. What's your definition of "over"?

In a few years when vaccines have been found, 85% of people inoculated and no
more proven Covid-19 cases have been found for 30 days?

or...?

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gremlinsinc
I think the consensus of 'over' is when the world one way or the other goes
back to well...as normal as it's gonna get. Personally, I think that'll be
when there's better treatments for the effects of covid, I'm not too believing
of a vaccine hitting anytime under 2 years.

But if we could halve the death-rate or more, it'd be pretty good steps
towards getting back to normal. Also, if we could actually get people to wear
masks and take it seriously. That'd go a long way towards quelling it.

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lxe
How does this compare to MoveBuddha's "regular" numbers? Maybe only the people
who're moving out of SF are using MoveBuddha? It's an interesting insight, but
I think there's a high chance it doesn't reflect the situation at large.

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MattGaiser
> To put this into perspective, during the same period last year, there were
> 980 move searches involving the Bay Area on our moving cost calculator. Of
> those 980 requests, 57% were for outbound moves and 43% were for moves into
> the Bay Area. This is typical for any major city that has a lot of people
> coming in and out at any given time.

> But what we’re currently seeing is an incredible 90% of move searches
> involving the Bay Area are current residents looking to leave and only 10%
> are people looking to move into the region. That’s a very different picture
> from just last year.

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blakesterz
Interesting to see Columbus (I'm assuming OH) on that top 5 list. That means
about 60 people were looking at moving to Columbus I guess? The other cities
made sense to me, but Columbus was a stand out. The others just seemed like
cities people looking to leave SF that would use movebuddah would be looking
at.

I think it's still a major test market because it has the perfect demographics
for that kind of thing.

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mifreewil
I've heard great things about Columbus, OH. Never been there but sounds like a
great midwest city with an affordable cost of living and nice college town
(The Ohio State University).

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DamnYuppie
Brutal winters though if you are coming from CA.

Honestly one of the under rated large cities in the US is Cleveland. I have
had to travel a lot for work over the years and was impressed by the dining
options available and the general togetherness of the community there. Again
winters...bad...

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cpitman
I grew up wearing shorts while there was snow on the ground, but Cleveland was
the first city where I understood why scarves and gloves are a thing. Brutally
cold wind.

But on the flipside, their street maintenance was _amazing_. It was snowing
almost all the time during the winter, but the road were always clear.

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asdff
Grew up there. They plow the roads then don't fix the potholes the plows make
lol. The infrastructure maintenance budgets are shoestrings because the city
lost 60% of its population over the past 50 years.

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einpoklum
I wonder what the figures really are when you separate regular people (if
you'll forgive the loaded term) from the category of "super rich people who
can afford $3,000/month rent or whatever it is these days".

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RickJWagner
Layoffs, VC defunding, poop on the streets and city-corona troubles.

Yes, I can totally understand a strong outflow. (But in a little while it
might be time to buy in. I believe someday SF will again be a desirable place
to live.)

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paulcnichols
More content marketing

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kangnkodos
The headline is very misleading. The author says that web searches by people
thinking of moving out of San Francisco are up.

That's very different than actually leaving.

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shaan1
how many times will someone say the same thing ? Isn't this old news ?

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shp0ngle
I know this is hacker news nitpicking, but moveBuddha is incredibly
disrespectful name for a company to actual buddhists.

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paxys
Why? Is the name offensive in any way?

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shp0ngle
Because it uses a religious and holy figure to sell something banal.

Try to imagine naming moving service "movingJesus" in a deeply Christian
country, for example.

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golf3
Stay the hell out of Texas.

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brodouevencode
Stay the hell out of Georgia too.

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renewiltord
Haha, I don’t think you have to tell anyone this. They’ll do it themselves.

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brodouevencode
It was a joke, and you might be surprised. Traffic is an easy indication of
the rate of growth.

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renewiltord
I, too, was joking! Just bants.

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xhkkffbf
Sure, I've thought about leaving myself, but where else can you just take a
dump on a sidewalk whenever you feel like it? Or where else can you take
anything you want without legal repercussions, as long as it's worth less than
$950 misdemeanor limit?

San Francisco is a paradise!

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rockarage
Another reason not mentioned: An increase in Crime in the City, here's just a
few

[https://www.businessinsider.com/san-francisco-is-
proposing-r...](https://www.businessinsider.com/san-francisco-is-proposing-
reimbursing-car-break-in-victims-2020-2)

[https://www.ebar.com/news/crime//291784](https://www.ebar.com/news/crime//291784)

[https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/video-man-
defecates-...](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/video-man-defecates-in-
aisle-of-san-francisco-grocery-store)

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paxys
Linking to a couple of incidents isn't proof of increase in crime. Rate have
actually been steadily declining for years.

