

Ask HN: Thoughts on Kurzweil and Singularity - gregking

I don't have enough karma to create a poll, but with the upcoming movie releases of "Transcendent Man" and "The Singularity is Near" along with recent write-ups in WSJ, Time, etc.  I think the mass population is starting to get doses of Kurzweil's vision of Singularity.  I am currently reading 1999's "Age of Spiritual Machines" and was wondering what you guys think of his vision.. I for one believe his claims are plausible though a bit over optimistic even with exponential growth.  Do you think we will see the next evolution of mankind as he describes it?  Do you think hes gone off his rocker in old age?  Im interested in your thoughts!
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Femur
>Do you think we will see the next evolution of mankind as he describes it?

I have no idea and I don't believe anybody who says that they know. The future
is unpredictable; there are no crystal balls or formulas that can tell you
what is going to happen. We can always take guesses and make predictions and
perhaps some will be close, but I wouldnt count on it.

Who in 1920 foresaw the internet? Who in 1990 saw a second depression in
2008/9? Who in 1950 predicted the bankruptcy of GM?

Generally though, progress keeps progressing. Man keeps thinking up cool new
things and it seems, so far, to be happening at an ever increasing rate.

I think the future will continue be as unpredictable as it always is, and I do
think it will continue to be awesome.

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SecurityMatters

      To: Femur

Kurzweil does not claim to know what will happen. I have read several of his
books and he mostly seems to talk about how these trends will cause major
changes. He then outlines more than one possible outcome. And, he more
cautiously says what he thinks may happen. I think his analysis is a little
too simplistic in places, but that he is likely to be right about the general
trends.

If you are interested in learning more, I recommend "The Singularity is Near".
Or, for free, go to <http://singinst.org/media/singularitysummit2008> and
download videos from the conference last year.

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rw
gregking, I recommend reading the essays at <http://yudkowsky.net/singularity>
before having this discussion.

