

Developing for the iPhone AppStore is betting your money on horses - nader
http://www.brandinfection.com/2009/08/08/the-iphone-appstore-disaster-why-developing-your-companys-app-for-it-is-as-safe-as-betting-on-horses/

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jpcx01
Hopefully Cydia will gain traction. I've bought a couple apps on it already
and its been a positive experience.

It has the potential to be huge, however no VC firm will touch it since it
also has the potential to be sued out of existence. I doubt it will have the
resources to build things up enough where it can scale up and get a mainstream
marketshare.

Android seems to be the only real alternative to Apple's appstore madness.
I'll definitely be supporting that platform in the future. Getting an iPhone
3g last year was a really boneheaded move.

~~~
jodrellblank
It doesn't really have the potential to be huge - yes there are a lot of
iPhones out there, but they are not all potential Cydia users. You need people
who are technical enough to jailbreak, interested enough to jailbreak, willing
to do some care and maintenance and maybe re-jailbreak every time an upgrade
is released and who are unhappy with the AppStore.

Given that the marketing for the iPhone is about how easy to use it is and how
comprehensive the AppStore is, the iPhone target market is pretty much
entirely excluding the Cydia market. The crossover is a chance happening that
geeky people like the iPhone too, and the iPhone is actually a nice gadget
dressed up as a phone.

~~~
alex_c
I think you're oversimplifying the divide between geeky and non-geeky people.
Or, to be more specific, you'd be surprised at the lengths "non-geeky" people
would go to to get what they want. "You mean I can get more free apps for my
iPhone? Show me!!"

~~~
Zev
"You mean I have to go to this ad-infested site and follow this long list of
instructions? All for something I'll use once and forget about?"

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aswanson
Until someone develops a phone thats as easy-to-use, feature rich, and as
pretty as the iPhone, the smart money will be to develop for the platform,
evil as the approval process is.

The simple fact is that Apple is light-years ahead of the competition with the
iPhone and looks to remain in that position for the forseeable future. And I
say that as an Android owner with no Macs in my house.

~~~
bcl
I am not convinced the approval process is 'evil'. Capricious? yes. Opaque?
You bet. But not evil. They have made some dumb decisions that are getting a
good amount of press coverage in tech circles, but the general iPhone user
doesn't care about most of that.

I also don't think the article's author made a good case for iPhone
development being as bad as gambling. Writing software for any platform can
look like a crap-shoot from the outside. But success depends on a good product
and a market to be served. Many of the iPhone apps are neither so that makes
it more difficult to determine what the chances of success are.

I think that iPhone development has a higher chance of success than for any
other current platform. You have a audience that is willing to spend
disposable income, and a place where they can easily find apps to serve their
needs.

~~~
m404
You misunderstood the comparison with gambling. It's obvious bad software
usually isn't gonna be too successful, no matter the platform and its
policies. But the way Apple is letting you know only AFTER you are done with
development whether you'll be even allowed (!) to sell it, that is definitely
NOT the conventional risk you take when you decide to develop an application
or not. And there are numerous hints at Apple not approving an application
citing a certain policy that is in no way related to the actual reason for not
approving the app. A developer is, by definition, unable to make 100% sure
that his app will be approved by Apple. _That_ is the actual reference to
gambling.

~~~
elai
You can say a similar thing when government legislates your business as
illegal. Large amount of regulators can be very opaque, and you only find out
after the fact a month or two after you've started business.

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m404
Android is gonna have to fight the old war of OpenSource platforms that go
commercial (a fight that has been won only very seldom in the past). If it
succeeds at that, its future is going to be very bright. Cydia will never be
as popular and/or successful as the AppStore. But then again, it never was
supposed to be. Cydia is supposed to be an open platform welcomming any kind
of developer without restrictions and/or fees. The idea itself is meant for an
outsider-position. Saurik is doing an awesome job at maintaining the Cydia
store, but his much more important work consists in bringing *nix software to
the iPhone platform. Cydia is only one of these advantages ;-)

~~~
rbanffy
"Android is gonna have to fight the old war of OpenSource platforms that go
commercial (a fight that has been won only very seldom in the past). If it
succeeds at that, its future is going to be very bright."

Care to explain that? Google does not intend to make money directly out of
Android sales and just about all the applications users buy are proprietary.
It's more or less the same as someone buying Oracle to run on Linux - the OS
is open-source, but the application is not.

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natch
This article was very disappointing - thin, old news, and generalizes to all
developers from two very specific and unique examples. Not to mention the
jarring its/it's usage. I do not come to HN to get this kind of blogspam.
Sorry to be so negative, but something is broken here. I suspect people are
upvoting simply for the easy-to-agree-with headline. Please don't do that,
without actually looking at the article first. I want those two minutes back,
and I wish HN had a way to prevent this kind of thing in the future.

ObTopic: It still comes down to writing a good app, and not tempting fate by
straying close to Apple's sensitive spots.

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cesare
I thought that all this bad publicity wouldn't hurt Apple and the App Store
model, but in the last few days I've heard many people how aren't geeks and
who don't even own an iPhone talking about Cydia.

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stevoski
Developing _anything_ for _anything_ is a big gamble, akin to betting on
horses. Talent, enthusiasm, and perserverance all play a role, but luck also
stands behind success.

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wyclif
"Its" not "it's." This is not rocket surgery, people.

