

The Current State of Spycraft - jakarta
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704479404575087621440351704.html?mod=WSJ_LifeStyle_LeadStoryNA

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JanezStupar
To me it seems that it's sort of a confirmation of subtext from the book "The
Secret History of the Mossad".

The thesis is that the Mossad is being seriously damaged by involvement of
politics. Mossad requires time to do things properly (getting the job done,
covering the trails, not leaving a trail to either operatives, Israel or
Mossad itself), but politicians, especially Benjamin Netanjahu required (in
90's) that Mossad perform more operations faster, or so to say "on demand"
whenever he needed a PR boost. Thus leading to a couple of spectacular
failures that left Mossad operatives demoralized and even got them to start
talking publicly about the ways of Mossad.

Fast forward 10 years. Bibi is in charge again and Mossad blew it again.
Hmm???

If this is Mossad this is a terrible failure - revealing identity of 25 agents
is horrible price to pay. Just imagine what kind of tow this will be on morale
of other operatives. Mossad operatives work(ed) so good because they know that
the organization will take care of them, that they will be protected and that
they are being appreciated (in hacker terms think MS, Google,...).

Kinda reminds me of how in IT when PHB type MBA's come around "demanding
results NOW!!!11one!", engineers loose morale, start leaving and everything
goes down the drain.

Edit:
[http://www.thejerusalemfund.org/ht/d/ContentDetails/i/9279/p...](http://www.thejerusalemfund.org/ht/d/ContentDetails/i/9279/pid/897)
\- describing the previous Netanyahues debacles.

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tokenadult
_Just imagine what kind of tow this will be on morale of other operatives._

Inquiries for employment on the Mossad website have reached levels never
before seen. Lots of young Israeli people evidently think that now is a great
time to become a Mossad operative.

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JanezStupar
I believe that there are quite some parallels between world of "spycraft" and
high technology.

I believe that personality traits and skill set for a successful spy are very
similar to those of a top-notch hacker.

Both require an excellent all rounder with a creative spirit and strong sense
for duty and loyalty. These are the kind of people, that can be relied upon to
carry out their job without micromanagement.

People like that are few and far in between. And more significantly, when you
start to displace them with mass produced "drones", they are the first who get
the cue and they start leaving (Elves have left middle earth).

So for a final parallel - there have never been more people sought after in
high-tech and the good ones have never been treated with more disrespect.
Incidentally there has never been a bigger supply of crappy code/tech than
today.

The difference is that business world can take such failures more easily -
companies turn over and that's it.

In world of Intelligence - like the assassination attempt on Khaled Mashal -
this is a failure of such magnitude that it will cost waaaay more than what
was gained. Both in money and in credibility and prestige.

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ryanwaggoner
It seems so very implausible to me that one of the most experienced and most
revered intelligence agencies in the world would fail to recognize _security
cameras_ as a viable threat to their operation. Seriously?

What seems more likely to me is that they were sending a very clear message:
even with one of the most advanced surveillance and counter-intelligence
networks in the world, we can still put two dozens operatives on the ground,
run a complex mission with military precision, kill the target, and disappear
before you know it's happened. There's nowhere you can hide from us.

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fnid2
Why would they jeopardize the identities of so many of their agents? Would
they have bothered with disguises at all if it was intentional to be "caught"?

I don't believe an intelligence agency like that would be dumb enough to be so
brazenly open. They didn't want to get caught, but they did.

I think they simply doubted the diligence on the part of the investigators. If
you watched the video, you'd know how hard it would have been to put all the
pieces together.

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cema
A great read, but... Most people says Israel did it even though nobody has a
proof of the case. Israel is the usual suspect in any death of a Palestinian
terrorist, and so far there has been little more than the usual suspicious. A
couple of Palestinians were arrested, that seems to be it.

The author says the lesson to whomever killed that guy is that nowadays you
cannot get away with it. My question is -- who exactly did not get away with
it this time?

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rdtsc
Oh, let's cut the fud.

[http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2010/02...](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2010/02/23/AR2010022302237.html)

From Associated Press (link is to Washington Post):

    
    
      "Israel's parliamentary opposition leader on Tuesday praised the assassination of a Hamas commander in Dubai last month"
    
    

Let's think about it. This definetly caused a diplomatic blow to Israel. If
they indeed didn't do it, they would have revved up their propaganda machine
to the maximum denying everything. They are not, they are praising it. At this
point arguing if Israel did or not is a little silly I think.

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cema
"If they indeed didn't do it, they would have revved up their propaganda
machine to the maximum denying everything." This is a good argument, but I am
not sure how strong it is. I can easily imagine them not doing that.

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alexgartrell
I think that the author's point in claiming that such killings are
technologically implausible is kind of shaky. Better disguises and more
intelligent communication channels (select a hotspot in the city at random
every time you need to send a message, encrypt the data, and bounce it around
the globe for good measure. Hell, you could even use a bot net to do it so the
neutral parties were oblivious).

Or you can call it part of the war on terror and blow the individual up with a
remote controlled airplane.

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endtime
Agreed (first part). There's certainly plenty of tech out there that would
have made this more anonymous - these guys just didn't use it.

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ovi256
It should glad me that everyone seems to discuss this with objective
detachment. However, I am shocked that no one cared to touch the moral core of
the matter : assassination of civil or political leaders is a crime.

Can you remember the outrage when Rabin was assassinated ? Can you imagine the
outrage if Palestine assassinated an Israeli statesman ? What the Mossad did
is no different.

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tokenadult
_assassination of civil or political leaders is a crime_

Taking your wording as my guide to the morality of the situation, I'll note
that the Hamas person who was assassinated was not an elected political
leader, but rather a gun runner and apparent assassin himself. He wasn't
traveling under his real name in Dubai, it appears, nor was he traveling with
a diplomatic or official (that is, government official's) passport.

~~~
rdtsc
Alright, here is a better 'morality guide':

    
    
       Assassinating someone is a crime.

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jfornear
Robert Baer, the author of the article, is a good (and very qualified) writer
on intelligence issues. His book about his experiences in the CIA, See No
Evil, is one of my favorites: [http://www.amazon.com/See-No-Evil-Soldier-
Terrorism/dp/14000...](http://www.amazon.com/See-No-Evil-Soldier-
Terrorism/dp/140004684X/rawbjams-20)

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dublinclontarf
Interesting article, it also beings up the question(in my mind) how operatives
can operate in a hostile environment(not necessarily hostile, just one in
which they don't want to be caught).

How could US (or British for that matter) HUMINT operate in places such as PR-
China (which is beginning to operate such pervasive surveillance systems)
without leaving a trail. How can you be a real/digital ghost?

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tokenadult
_How could US (or British for that matter) HUMINT operate in places such as
PR-China_

By taking advantage of the pervasive corruption in China to bribe Chinese
nationals ("agents") who are cross-checked for their ability to provide the
U.S. or British citizens ("operatives") with information. That's how the
C.I.A. has long gathered a lot of its human intelligence in a lot of
countries. It doesn't always work, but neither do any other country's attempts
to gather intelligence always work against the United States or Britain.

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adelevie
> ... an embarrassing blunder for Tel Aviv.

Tel Aviv is not the capital of Israel.

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DanielBMarkham
I think the state-of-the-art is headed towards man-lethal, man-portable
stealth UAVs, either using lasers or some sort of projectile weapon to
assassinate targets. If you could have a much smaller team launch a small
vehicle which would then pick off a target by flying silently hundreds of
yards away at night? You could pick people off with a high degree of
deniability.

Big teams deployed in an urban environment are just not practicable anymore.

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varaon
Were it possible, a laser sniper rifle would be an intermediary step. Of
course, in both these cases, deniability is difficult when you're the only one
with the technology.

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DanielBMarkham
A sniper robot would be workable with off-the-shelf technology. You could hide
it in plain sight by simply making it look like a city garbage can or a
vending machine.

The problem with static, low-cost technology is ingress and egress: whatever
the mission, the idea is that there are no pieces for anybody to find once
it's over. Ideally the robot would move itself into position and get the heck
out of dodge with a high degree of invisibility. That's why man-portable UAVs
work so well. Heck, we're already using them for reconnaissance. (But you're
right about the technology problems. Only a few countries could mount such an
effort)

