
US Electric Car Sales Report - srameshc
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/04/big-auto-problem-us-electric-car-sales-report/
======
imglorp
> large automakers aren’t even trying

Despite the Bolt being MT car of the year in 2017, I found it very hard to get
a test drive. Some local Chevy dealers pretended not to know about it, which
is ludicrous: their business, and maybe their only value as middleman, is to
know every vehicle in the catalog forward and backward and then to leap to get
me what I ask for.

When I pointed out they were sitting on MTCOY the response was: don't believe
everything you read. Really?

Finally, after about 6 months of trying, I finally got a test drive in
January, and the salesman was knowlegeable and was ready to sell one from a
local inventory pool. His observation was, while there are still some lifetime
unknowns (8 yr/100 kmi warranty on the battery) it probably wouldn't ever need
as much maint as an ICE car.

And that might be part of the dealers' problem: the service side of the
business is going to take a hit in the long term. In the short term, the ICE
assembly lines will need retooling, after giant investments in 100 yo methods.

~~~
jarjoura
It might not be accurate to accuse GM dealerships of not wanting to sell
Bolts, and don't forget that it's a specialty, low-production vehicle, either
way you slice it. Specialty cars are usually handled by one person in a
dealership, or only at a bigger dealership in a region. Since everyone else is
still motivated to sell cars for their own personal commission, they get
greedy and try to convince you they know what's best for you since the
specialty salesperson is much more likely getting the sale.

You'll experience the same run-around for custom BTO cars and low production
halo models.

~~~
WorldMaker
The argument here is that the Bolt _shouldn 't be_ a specialty, low-production
vehicle. It has won major car awards, and priced right in a market sweet spot.
Dealerships should have them front-and-center and should be talking up how
awesome they are.

It might not be a "conspiracy" that sales people aren't hyping what is likely
still a low margin, hard to sell car, but they should at least know what it is
if people ask.

------
jread
I leased a Ford Focus Electric for 2 years before purchasing a used Tesla.
After just a few months it became apparent that the Focus was just a
compliance car afterthought. Instead of putting a little thought into battery
placement, they simply threw it into the hatchback which reduced storage and
left little weight in the front of a front wheel drive car. Instead of
converting the engine compartment into a frunk, there was a mass of loosely
placed tubes and wiring. The result was a car with limited storage that was
downright dangerous to drive on a wet road due to lack of traction, with an
effective range of about 50 miles (hope you don't have to use your heater or
AC). Ford Sync was also absolutely miserable to use - slow, unintuitive and
clunky.

On the contrary, the Tesla has been an absolute joy (perhaps even more so
after driving the Focus for 2 years). The performance, interface,
supercharging, storage, aesthetics and customer service are IMO far superior
to any other electric vehicle on the market today or even announced for
release in the next few years.

~~~
r00fus
I have a FFE 2017 and they fixed a lot of that.

1) Range is 110mi (winter: 80, summer: 130)

2) Acceleration is improved (I smoked a Porche Boxster between 2 very long
lights).

3) Sync3 is better, and they support Android Auto/ Apple Carplay.

4) DC Fast charging support = 30m recharge ( we have one at my office) to
about 80% from near-zero.

Some things are unchanged / still suck: traction due to it not being 4wd - is
the same. Battery position is the same (really unfortunate since it kneecaps
the benefit of having a hatchback. The radio always comes on if I disconnect
CarPlay - I wish I could disable it from every getting AM/FM as I find it
mostly ads and useless.

That said, I still really enjoy the car. It's more fun than my old Prius,
still fits 5 (3 kids in back) and I never visit a gas station. Of course, I'm
on the list for a Model 3.

------
astraelraen
We own a 2018 Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid (PHEV) Cost after 7500 tax credit was
comparable (slightly higher) than gas only variants with dealer discounts.
Winter mpg(e) was fairly unimpressive, about 24mpg(e) combined. Chrysler
programmed (?) the car to run heavy on the gas engine when temperatures drop.
There are no settings or overrides like the Volt (my only other PHEV
experience)

As it is warming up mpge is climbing up to 34mpge, however we havent owned it
for a summer or long enough during the warm season to comment on long term
warm mileage. Overall we are satisified. Our utility rates are about 11 cents
per kWh. We came from an Odyssey that could barely manage 19mpg around town,
so 34+ all the while utilizing cheaper electric rates as fuel makes me happy.
We don't drive much highway other than roadtrips. The one we have taken
resulted in about 27mpg, which was slightly better than our Odyssey could do,
but nothing earth shattering.

Driving in pure electric is interesting and even though the electric motor
alone produces nowhere near the horsepower as the V6 it still performs well.

I almost feel sorry for the automakers though in making PHEV vehicles. They
are complicated and I assume yield alot of complicated questions at the dealer
level. If Tesla made a van, I would have strongly considered it, however the
model X didn't meet our needs.

~~~
semi-extrinsic
> If Tesla made a van, I would have strongly considered it

I'm certain the reason they don't is that it would either have a sub-100 mile
range (like the actually existing Nissan NV200e electric van), or it would
have a 10 000 lbs curb weight and cost well north of $200k.

I mean, at highway speeds air resistance is what you're spending your
gas/electricity on fighting against.

For a Model S, measured drag coefficient and projected frontal area imply that
to maintain 70 mph for one hour you're spending 10 kWh.

For a Ford Transit van, the drag coefficient doubles and the projected area
increases by a whopping 5x, so you're looking at 100 kWh spent to maintain 70
mph for one hour.

This implies an electric full-size van with the range of a Model S would
require at least 600 kWh of battery capacity installed, giving a battery
weight alone of 7500 lbs (3500 kg)!!!

~~~
ccamrobertson
I think the answer is simpler than that; minivans aren't sexy. Tesla is
focused on gobbling up potential BMW and Audi buyers who have the budget for a
fully loaded X5 or Q7 and aren't willing to give up the sex appeal (at least
until kids 2-3 come along).

A Ford Transit van is a pretty big leap for someone who wants a vehicle to
cart around kids, pets and their associated gear.

The 2017 Chrysler Pacifica offers a drag coefficient of 0.30 vs. 0.24 for the
Model X. Given Tesla's aggressive reduction in drag and frontal area on the
Model X (with respect to other SUVs) I expect they could get away with a much
more modest bump in battery capacity if minivans became the next hot ticket.

~~~
semi-extrinsic
You're right that minivans aren't sexy. And that the Model X has significantly
better aerodynamics than a X5 or a Q7. But it doesn't match the carrying
capacity of either.

I mean, with a Q7 you can carry your three kids with just two seat rows, so
you can still fit two strollers and enough luggage for a three week holiday in
the trunk. With a Model X, not so much. And thanks to the fancy doors, forget
about compensating with a roofbox.

It's more comparable to a BMW X4 or a Mercedes GLC Coupe. And even then, the
Model X is almost 90 inches wide, same as a H1 Hummer, as opposed to 77 inches
for the "bigger" Q7.

------
rgbrenner
Just a reminder-- there were 1.15M light vehicle sales in the US last
month[0].

The total for all of these EV cars put together is a drop in the bucket..
12000/1.15M = 1%. So if big auto has a problem, they have a lot of time to
figure it out.

0\.
[http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html](http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html)

Edit: Corrected.. thanks to sremani for pointing out the error.

~~~
ggm
I'm coming at this from another domain, measuring IPv6 uptake. I've been doing
this for over 10 years now. The initial demand curve, was severely depressing.
It was painful to watch technology sitting at 1% growth. The thing is, that in
a logistic supply curve, the moment of change when something where the best-
fit is linear, and it goes into its exponential phase, its completely
unpredictable. You can stab at it, but its really best defined in arrears,
after the fact.

So we're on 1% of monthly sales against ICE? We might still be on 1% in 3
months time, or 6. But the progression from 1% to 5% to 16% to 40% will be
interesting. It might not happen that way, but in other domains, the uptake
curve is abrupt.

(and it doesn't have to reach 100%, there is no _must_ here, and its not a
physical law bound thing either: its a supply curve, a logistic curve.)

~~~
semi-extrinsic
The thing about tech uptake is that it faces very few hard physical
limitations on growth.

I mean, if Tesla were facing as few physical limitations (literally can't
build cars fast enough) as IPV6 uptake, they'd have sold millions of cars by
now.

------
Animats
Here's the US January car sales data for all marques, not just electrics.[1]
Tesla is in 27th place, below Lincoln and ahead of Volvo.

[1] [http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2018/02/u-s-auto-sales-brand-
ra...](http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2018/02/u-s-auto-sales-brand-rankings-
january-2018-ytd/#1)

~~~
jacquesm
Why the big discrepancy between the two reports? (8500 vs 6000 for Tesla)

~~~
Animats
The data by brand comes, I think, from motor vehicle registration data. That
means out the door and on the road in customer hands. Manufacturer-provided
data often counts cars as they are produced. The original article also says
that Tesla data is "estimated".

------
themistocle
The only people I know who have an electric car own or have pre-ordered
Teslas. They are all status symbols. I don’t know anyone who _needs_ an
electric car. Maybe the problem is just as much lack of demand as it is lack
of big auto commitment?

~~~
mikeash
Most cars beyond the bare-bones econoboxes aren’t about _needs_. Nobody needs
an electric car, but they can be really nice to own in various ways.

~~~
freehunter
I agree. If you're buying anything more expensive than the $13k Nissan Versa,
you're buying features you don't _need_. So saying people don't _need_ an
electric car so there's no point in buying them is kind of a silly statement.

~~~
gregimba
I think you are vastly underestimating what some people use their vehicles
for. Where I drove today would have totaled a Nissan Versa. Trucks and other
utility vehicles have their place.

~~~
freehunter
Yes, and the wide variety of all-electric trucks and utility vehicles on the
market prove that your use case is a direct and unquestionable comparison to
what we're talking about right now, which is vehicles that are directly
comparable to a Tesla or Bolt or Volt or Leaf.

You know, I think the Prius is really underrated as a pickup truck.

------
gatola
There were 50% more BMWs sold this January than all electric cars combined.

I have a hard time believing any headstart on sales alone will be
representative.

Technology, services (including charging) are definitely advantages of
pioneers like Tesla by the way, the only non-"big auto" member of the top ev
sellers list.

~~~
toomuchtodo
I bought a Tesla primarily for the Supercharger network. Any other EV is DOA
if you need to long distance travel in a reasonable amount of time (I do like
the Leaf and Bolt, but they are not practical outside of a commuter car).

The operating costs are less than half of the Tundra pickup truck it replaced.

~~~
brightball
That’s why I love the Volt. It’s just tremendously more practical to use
electric for the commute but still have access to gas for long trips.

------
anovikov
I have a totally different conclusion from it: U.S. electric car industry is
stuck while everyone in the world is rushing to fill the market. Worldwide
growth in 2017 was ca. 58%.

------
klondike_
I don't think electric car manufacturers are considering the huge amount of
the US population that lives in the Midwest/Northeast part of the country.

In the winter the decreased battery life (especially when running the heater)
could be a deal breaker for many people. Also, most electric cars being
manufactured are compacts, which would do a poor job of handling snowy roads
even considering the increased torque of an electric motor.

~~~
tomhschmidt
[https://electrek.co/2017/12/19/tesla-breaks-new-records-
norw...](https://electrek.co/2017/12/19/tesla-breaks-new-records-norway-most-
popular-automaker/)

~~~
Avshalom
Minnesota has as many people as Norway and is colder. Outside of the inland
north Norway isn't actually very cold.

on a general note:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardiness_zone#/media/File:201...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardiness_zone#/media/File:2012_USDA_Plant_Hardiness_Zone_Map_\(USA\).jpg)

[http://www.plantmaps.com/interactive-norway-plant-
hardiness-...](http://www.plantmaps.com/interactive-norway-plant-hardiness-
zone-map-celsius.php)

------
oneshot908
I have a lovely internal combustion sportscar that Dom Toretto or his wife
(were they real) would enjoy driving.

And if anyone can deliver the same performance for $50,000 (or less) I'll
transition to electric. GM says 2020, Ford says (I think) 2023. And meanwhile,
Teslas are nice, but I hate their interiors with the whole one.big.screen and
they cost too much. All IMO of course.

~~~
eugay
This is how I see it:
[https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJOaS7lWAAM8kHe.jpg](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJOaS7lWAAM8kHe.jpg)

