
What it’s like to go into lockdown for the second time - pmontra
https://elemental.medium.com/what-its-like-to-go-into-lockdown-for-the-second-time-97f4d3bcdb5b
======
hprotagonist
I’ve not really come out of lockdown since late February.

Once there was any community transmission on the continent i knew the jig was
up, so we were pretty cloistered off about two weeks early.

State numbers look good but I’ve yet to substantially change my behavior since
I started working from home. Big restocking food trips several weeks apart,
no-contact outside activities only, etc.

We’ve only started doing any kind of outside-only-masks-except-when-eating
limited contact with family in the last 3 weeks or so, and even that is
fragile feeling.

~~~
hombre_fatal
Alternate explanation: you work from home (thus aren't forced out of the
house) and you are entertained enough by HN and Reddit and Netflix and
whatever you do to have no real desire to leave, and since you have _any_
concern about the virus, you confuse your indoor shut-in lifestyle (which most
of us have) as some positive premeditated rational character trait that
everyone else lacks.

I'd wager that explains almost all of the self-congratulating I see online.

~~~
monocasa
Or I'd really like to leave the house, go to concerts again, go to
restaurants, work at my desk at the office where I can better keep life and
work separate and have a great view of the mountains.

But I also know several fairly young people that have died with no
comorbidities (as young as 38), and several others that have survived but are
in a mental fog months later, and know the importance of staying in.

~~~
chromedev
You can't even go outside?

~~~
techsupporter
I'm not the person to whom you replied but my answer is: Sure, and I do, quite
a lot, but it's not the same. I've deleted 12 different things from my
calendar that my family was going to do between early March and now. A trip to
see friends in another country, three baseball games (just the ones we'd
bought in advance), two different conventions, and more.

All ruined because of this stupid virus.

None are replaced by a brisk walk outdoors.

------
pugio
I'm an American living in Melbourne right now (and, I guess, for the
foreseeable future) and I've been very impressed with the way the government
here has been handling restrictions. They're really doing everything they can
to impress the seriousness of this on the population, and of the paramount
importance of saving lives.

When I chat with my friends and family in the US, I find myself quietly
surprised when they mention things like travel or hanging out with friends.
"Oh right, not everyone is locked down like we are." It's tough in some ways -
my partner and I really miss hiking - but we're more than willing to keep this
up until it's clear that we've contained the spread.

~~~
cik2e
Out of curiosity, why can’t you go hiking? That seems like one of the few
activities where you can just about guarantee social distancing by going to
more remote areas. Is it explicitly prohibited? If so, I have to question the
logic behind that.

~~~
thinkingemote
You can only exercise for 1 hour a day, and you must wear a mask everywhere
outside and they have the police out in popular rural areas enforcing this.

I'm not sure if its allowed to drive 2 hours to walk for 1 hour or not. I
doubt it.

~~~
umvi
Sounds like a dystopian police state

~~~
cameldrv
A strict, short lockdown is far preferable to the five months so far of half
assed containment that has failed to even reduce cases relative to the
beginning of lockdown.

To make this work, there must be enforcement. From my observations, most
spread is coming from people not following guidelines.

------
beaunative
I once thought coronavirus is far away even with the level of mandatory
lockdown we've endured, none of my family member were affected. Until a few
days ago, a remote cousin of mine who was studying in NY died because of it,
and it felt real. I'd be so willingly under lockdown for so many more days if
that will bring her back. Even if we hardly met, it felt real, and so close.

------
fblp
This was written a day ago and it's annoying to see the author state "cases
are only going up" when it has been widely reported that the number of cases
in Victoria peaked around a week ago - thanks to the strict lockdown.

Victoria is also unique in that it is the only state in Australia with a large
outbreak. The government has huge economic and social incentives to contain
it.

Victoria charts: [https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/ten-graphs-
that-...](https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/ten-graphs-that-show-
victoria-s-coronavirus-trends-20200709-p55ajk.html)

I'm sorry that the writer is suffering, but as an Australian living in the US
id prefer to undergo several weeks of draconian lockdown enforced by the
police that could practically eliminate coroanavirus rather than what is
probably going to be at least 12 months of restrictions in the US, and
hundreds of thousands of deaths.

~~~
zaroth
There’s no evidence that a strict lockdown for several weeks can practically
eliminate coronavirus indefinitely without perfect control over a non-
permiable border.

As soon as people (or even goods) can move freely across the border of your
strictly locked down area you’re back to positive cases spreading through a
susceptible population.

~~~
gnat
The three essentials: strong borders, lots of testing & tracing, and social
distancing (including masks).

I've read epidemiologists saying that there's kinda a CAP theorem for
epidemiology. Namely, you can trade off one if you're strong on the others: if
you're going to have a greater risk of letting it in from weak border
controls, then you have to make it hard to catch (distancing) and detect &
eliminate it fast when it shows up (testing & tracing). Similarly, if you
don't want distance then you've got to be very strong keeping it out and
finding it if it shows up. And if you're slack on testing & tracing, then be
extremely vigilant on not getting it in the first place.

------
searchableguy
We gave up on lockdown here. Almost 70k cases daily making up a significant
chunk of the _total tested people_.

Specifically, where I live (India, some small part) - most have forgotten
about hand sanitizer or face masks.

I don't think a lockdown would be a good option for us but people can at least
maintain caution for themselves and others which they aren't.

------
gregoriol
We are pretty close to a second lockdown in France too, but I think this time
might be different: more local instead of whole country (by city/region?),
more tests, available masks and gel, better knowledge of the things to do,
remote work already well in place, ... It might end up being smoother.

~~~
alfiedotwtf
Melbourne tried that but it didn’t work :(

We had people leaving suburbs that had outbreaks, and when the army door
knocked positive cases, a large percentage weren’t home :angry:

People are selfish and will not self-isolate via the honour system. Melbourne
only saw cases drop after the threat of fines for leaving home happened.
Incentives matter.

------
dm319
Here in the UK the cases are going back up again. We're currently lower than
France, Spain (which seems to be really taking off), Belgium, Luxembourg and
Sweden, but have higher rates than Germany and the other Nordic countries.
We've had local lockdowns, but we'll have to see if that works. It's the
holiday month, and seaside towns are fully booked with tourists. People were
desperate for a holiday, my family included, but it seems premature, and these
busy seaside places are not suited to social distancing. Hospitals are trying
to get the elective work going again, but everyone's keeping an eye on the
numbers, which threaten to choke elective pathways. Generally, everyone seems
to be struggling a bit psychologically. People are slightly grumpier, slightly
more aggressive. Petty crime seems to be going up. My shoe trees were stolen
at work. Why? My wife has had to park her usual intellectuality stimulating
work and homeschool our children for several months now. She's done with that.
I totally empathize with the writer. This has become a war of attrition.

~~~
carlcarlcarl
Are you talking about the number of identified cases per 1 million or the
number of deaths per 1 million? Looking at the death tolls, you are only lower
than San Marino, Belgium, Peru, Andorra and Spain.

~~~
dm319
Cases. Yes, deaths still seem high. I find that a little strange, as it
doesn't fit the rate at all. It might be that the incidence has only just
dropped after a delay compared to the continent. Or maybe that these are
assummed COVID-19 cases that haven't been tested. But I also notice on the
latest data a -78.9 deaths/million two days ago. Not sure if that is a mistake
or a correction.

------
christkv
At least they can go out for an hour of exercise. In Spain during the lockdown
only a single person could go to the store a day. There won't be another mass
lockdown people won't accept it and cases are climbing again. However the good
news is that there does not seem to be equal explosion in hospitalisations or
death.

------
batt4good
As a resident of New York City I absolutely cannot fathom another lock-down,
and unfortunately I don't think a vast majority of residents my age would take
it "seriously".

A big reason the lock-down ever worked was the sheer exodus of people from
Manhattan. Brooklyn and outer boroughs never really had full-quarantine.
People hate to admit it, but my friends who live in neighborhoods with high
minority populations complained of constant block parties and drinking in the
streets - largely pointing to why queens and Williamsburg were hit hard.

I lived a mere three blocks from one of the hospitals that was overrun with
patients and for months had multiple chilled semi-trailers filled with dead
bodies.

New York has been absolutely decimated, I honestly don't see small business
and restaurants coming back in even two years, even if a vaccine is found. I'm
starting to shift to the side of finding a compromise to help working class
people get back on their feet. Government hand-outs will NOT fix this.

I whole-heartedly supported the first lock-down, but I no longer believe a
second lock-down would really help anyone. Obviously, masks should become a
social norm but I believe once daily testing before entering certain
businesses or buildings will become commonplace. It's already common practice
at hospitals and certain federal buildings.

~~~
zaroth
If they aren’t willing to lockdown protests then I can’t quite see the point
of locking down otherwise.

NYC is my canary in the coal mine. As long as NYC does not see a resurgence I
will believe that the level of herd immunity in NYC is enough, combined with
common sense hygiene practices, to keep Rt below 1.

~~~
batt4good
Winter will be interesting both in terms of the NYC economy and covid. Once
it's too cold for outdoor dining more businesses will likely close (there's
just no way to avoid this, as someone with family in the restaurant industry I
find it dumb that more people don't acknowledge how slim the margins of most
restaurants are).

It'll be interesting to see how the remaining population in the city fares. If
I wasn't waiting to see if I had an office in March or had a lease that I
couldn't break there's no way I'd be staying here.

------
marcus_holmes
Life's back to normal here in Berlin. Won't be for long - they're already
making noises about rising case numbers and a second lockdown.

Second one will be harder, I think.

~~~
pkaye
What things are not open or restricted for lockdowns in your area?

~~~
marcus_holmes
large gatherings of people (concerts, theatre, cinema) are still banned.

Most people don't go into restaurants and only eat at the outside tables, but
that's voluntary.

Shops need masks and some attempt at social distancing, but the spatis (kind
like corner shops but mostly selling cheap beer, very popular here) don't care
about masks.

------
kibibu
Just a heads up that the sex scandal mentioned was a completely
unsubstantiated rumour spread by Australia's Murdoch press, whose agenda is to
politicise this outbreak.

~~~
Lammy
I would confidently label myself a "Murdoch disliker", but I don't think
"media conglomerate pushes news stories that generate the most
anger/fear/hatred/etc (a.k.a. dollars)" is a partisan take in any way.

------
tsherr
During WW1 and WW2 people went off to war to die or at best come back scarred
from the experience, or people sent loved ones off to war. They grew victory
gardens. They lived with shortages.

They survived. For years. A few months of lockdown/masks/distancing and we're
crying like babies.

Come on. Life's tough. Wear a helmet (or in this case, a mask).

~~~
ojhughes
Using the language of war has been a common theme during the pandemic as a way
to justify draconian measures. This isn't a war, nurses are not like soldiers.
Lockdown is great if you work from home and can sip wine in the garden. Not so
attractive for small businesses owners watching their livelihoods go down the
drain or if you are stuck in a tiny high rise flat with 3 kids.

------
umvi
Total lockdown is overkill. Masks + social distancing are more than enough to
keep cases in my area below ICU capacity.

In places where people refuse to wear masks and social distance... Let them
die at slightly elevated rates, it's clearly what they want. I'm tired of the
government trying to save lives at any cost against people's will.

~~~
DennisP
The problem is that when people refuse to wear masks, it's often other people
who end up dying because of it, even when the other people took more care.

The reason, of course, is that masks are only partial protection for the
people wearing them.

~~~
umvi
> The problem is that when people refuse to wear masks, it's often other
> people who end up dying because of it, even when the other people took more
> care.

Yep, just like lots of other things. 41,000 people die of second hand smoke
per year because of the actions of others around them. Yet we do not take
drastic measures to prevent these deaths. Having freedom means the people
might abuse it to harm others, even by inaction. Novel viruses like covid come
once every century. A century of second hand smoke deaths is well over 4
million deaths for the US alone, even higher in Europe.

~~~
hh3k0
> Yet we do not take drastic measures to prevent these deaths.

We do, actually. A virus like COVID-19 and second-hand smoke are only
comparable to a certain degree, though. For example, smoking in public indoor
spaces is banned in many, many countries in the world. I'm sure the measures
would be even more drastic if inhaling second-hand smoke once could a) kill
you within ~2 weeks if your health was already compromised b) cause brain
damage within ~2 weeks if you were an otherwise healthy individual.

------
aaron695
How does economic theory apply to Learned Helplessness?

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Learned_helplessness](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Learned_helplessness)

This will continue to happen regularly in countries like Australia over the
next few years under their current plan.

------
ojhughes
Why so many of us accept authoritarian lockdown rulings is beyond me. It’s
even more alarming how willing many are to report their neighbours for
perceived infringements. Freedom of movement is sacred and people should be
able to make their own choices based on the information available.

~~~
gregoriol
"your rights end where mine begin" => you can't use your freedom to endanger
others

~~~
ojhughes
If we both wear a mask then we pose very little danger to each other. We pose
a far greater danger to others driving a car and having a collision

~~~
gregoriol
In France for example, there has been ~35'000 deaths because of COVID-19 in ~6
months of 2020, while there has been ~3'500 deaths on the roads in ~12 months
of 2019.

Your "if we both" is a very big if => without making it mandatory, people
don't wear them and ill people can propagate the virus to many, making COVID
propagation possibly more dangerous than a car accident they could create.

~~~
ojhughes
Making mask usage mandatory and actually policing it would be a much lighter
touch and the evidence from Japan suggests the virus can be kept under control
without lockdowns. If you take the numbers in Japan in your example, driving
is more dangerous

------
wslh
In Buenos Aires, Argentina we are in lockdown since middle March. Never
stopped.

------
kaladinstorm
This is insanity. Why are these people letting their government put them under
house arrest.

------
dddddddddd_sd
[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/)

Sweden has proved that lockdown is total propaganda ran by special interest.

P.S. I am going to get downvoted. But that’s okey. People don’t want hear
truth!

~~~
ptx
Only seven countries have done worse than Sweden[1] in terms of
deaths/population. It's worse than the US, 4 times worse than Germany, 95
times worse than South Korea and 1895 times worse than Taiwan. Despite having
plenty of advance warning and (wasted) opportunity to learn from what other
countries had done.

[1]
[https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality)

~~~
dddddddddd_sd
Give it a few months. We will discuss about it. Let the those countries have
their second wave they will be same as Sweden but with broken economy!

~~~
finger
The Swedish economy is already suffering. The swedish economy fell by (8.6%)
2nd quarter [1] compared to Denmark (7.4%) [2].

[1]: [https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/statistik-efter-
amne/nati...](https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/statistik-efter-
amne/nationalrakenskaper/nationalrakenskaper/nationalrakenskaper-kvartals-och-
arsberakningar/pong/statistiknyhet/nationalrakenskaper-2a-kvartalet-2020/)

[2]: [https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/penge/historisk-stort-fald-i-
bnp-c...](https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/penge/historisk-stort-fald-i-bnp-
coronakrisen-faar-dansk-oekonomi-til-skrumpe)

~~~
dddddddddd_sd
Your conclusion is wrong. Sweden is going to fully open since COVID19 is
solved issue now.

Denmark is going to suffer months, not years still.

