
How badly do most/all YCNews-ers suffer from confirmation bias? - fruscica

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ereldon
I can see this... but the best way to judge whether such bias exists (and is
also a bad thing) is by looking at the success or failure of our startups,
right? The free market ain't perfect, but it's better than most other methods
of deciding value. This point assumes that we take each other's advice here ;)

Also, I recall a BBC article a while back citing a study showing that ~half of
all scientific studies turn out wrong because they failed to exclude
variables. The study, below, needs to be supported by other studies in other
circumstances (and maybe those exist -- I don't read psy journals).

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fruscica
From <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias:>

In January 2006, Drew Westen and a team from Emory University announced at the
annual Society for Personality and Social Psychology conference in Palm
Springs, California the results of a study[2] showing the brain activity for
confirmation bias. Their results suggest the unconscious and emotion-driven
nature of this form of bias.

The study was carried out during the pre-electoral period of the 2004
presidential election on 30 men, half who described themselves as strong
Republicans and half as strong Democrats. During a functional magnetic
resonance imaging (fMRI) scan, the subjects were asked to assess contradictory
statements by both George W. Bush and John Kerry. The scans showed that the
part of the brain associated with reasoning, the dorsolateral prefrontal
cortex, was not involved when assessing the statements. Conversely, the most
active regions of the brain were those involved in processing emotions
(orbitofrontal cortex), conflict resolution (anterior cingulate cortex) and
making judgment about moral accountability (posterior cingulate cortex).[3]

Dr. Westen summarised the work:

"None of the circuits involved in conscious reasoning were particularly
engaged. Essentially, it appears as if partisans twirl the cognitive
kaleidoscope until they get the conclusions they want, and then they get
massively reinforced for it, with the elimination of negative emotional states
and activation of positive ones....

Everyone from executives and judges to scientists and politicians may reason
to emotionally biased judgments when they have a vested interest in how to
interpret 'the facts'."[4]

\---end of wikipedia excerpt---

As nearly as I can tell, this kind of bias afflicts most/all of the folks who
frequent YC News. To understand why I think this, review my previous
submissions and the non-response each received. It seems that (aspiring)
entrepreneurs who are pure tech (I'm a hybrid of comp sci & comedy writing)
just don't want to believe that, going forward, their companies will probably
have to market _profitably_ through branded entertainment to be competitive.

~~~
pg
This has to be the most elaborate gripe I've ever heard from someone whose
stuff got ignored on a social news site. I don't remember any of your other
submissions, but if they had as low a signal to noise ratio as this one, I can
see why they might not have got many votes.

Basically this post = "Everyone here is so deluded that they ignore me!" and
not even in your own words.

~~~
fruscica
I'm just positing a hypothesis. Why so gratuitously ad hominem? At least
gather some data first...

(But thanks for the interesting data point :-)

~~~
inklesspen
It's rather disingenuous to say "you all suffer from confirmation bias because
you ignore my posts" and then claim ad hominem attacks when people point out
that your posts are not that interesting. _You_ are the one who started the
conversation focusing on you and your posts.

