

Ultrabooks are dead?  Then why are they outselling Apple's entire laptop line? - 001sky
http://thenextweb.com/insider/2012/10/02/lets-take-another-look-ultrabook-numbers/

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terrywilcox
After cutting Ultrabook shipping forecasts by 50% for the year, the 4th
quarter shipments are supposed to be larger than the sum of shipments in the
first three quarters?

And in this one quarter alone, those shipments will exceed the sales of
Apple's laptop line.

Using the numbers in the article (6 out of 12 million in Q4), that makes
Utltrabook shipments about 2 million each in Qs 1-3.

Apple sells (not ships) abut 3 million laptops per quarter. That means Apple
regularly sells 50% more laptops than the entire PC industry ships Ultrabooks.

Cherry picking that one quarter and conflating sales with shipments still
can't make a compelling case for Ultrabooks.

So Ultrabook sales have been dismal and manufacturers are dumping inventory.
That won't improve sales unless they slash their prices, which already suffer
from razor thin margins.

I don't see the story. Comparing one company's sales to an industry's output
(not sales) in one quarter of an otherwise dismal year is meaningless.

~~~
001sky
You're analysis is a bit flawed, as well though.

[http://cdn.thenextweb.com/wp-
content/blogs.dir/1/files/2012/...](http://cdn.thenextweb.com/wp-
content/blogs.dir/1/files/2012/10/Screen-Shot-2012-10-01-at-3.29.16-PM.png)

Q3 (actual) data should show near 1.0x coverage (eyball ~ 3.0)

Also, You're mixing apples and oranges (excuse the pun). The Apple data
includes mature MacBook pro + MacBook Air. The non-Apple data is for a newly
launched product that has steep QoQ growth ~100% per (regardless of level
deltas). Normalized Q1 2013 (projected) is 2x covered. Even if its half-off,
its 1.0x covered. which is 1.Nx covered for direct comparison to MBAs.

So, the main takeaway is that the MBA form factor is legit. The Author of this
piece (he admits) just bought one, etc. I can't imaging lugging around a 4-5
lbs to regularly travel/leave the office. They are like the old 17incher. Like
boat anchors, now =].

So, Intel called the pitch right (they knew what to expect). It remains to be
seen if the can hit the ball, get on/and around the bases (ie, make a long-
term business line). The Intel "branding" of ultrabook and tech specs, etc is
sort of a side-show and is cool as insider-y gossip, but really missing the
point.

Like the iPad, Apple created a form-factor that is better for many (most)
specific uses. If you need a keyboard, to work on images, or other "real" uses
tha require a "proper OS" while traveling, MBA is the winner. Only if you need
gaming/video editing, complete image/work from the office, etc, must you bring
a 2kgs of MBP. IMHO.

~~~
terrywilcox
It's OK if my analysis is flawed because I'm not trolling for page hits. I did
write that on my Air though.

~~~
001sky
It doesn't matter why its flawed, its just worth thinking things through
clearly. I'm always wondering how these articles are re-butted within 6 hours
by another counterpoint. More likely than not, these are PR plants. I cant
imagine who else would be sitting around on their ass waiting to write these
stories. But what do I know.

