
Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last? - artsandsci
http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21731332-weaker-dollar-and-energy-boom-are-pushing-up-pay-blue-collar-wages-are-surging-can-it
======
tjpaudio
Data Scientist at major company here that was pounding nails in construction
circa 2005. This to me is no surprise. At the time I was early 20s and needed
that job that would be sort of an apprenticeship. The problem was, these jobs
just didn't exist. The young guys (me) got laid of every winter to keep on as
many senior crew members as possible and every spring the jobs were less
skilled and more labor (think demolition vs. the skills needed for finish
work). Young workers need a solid 5-7 years to develop those skills, but from
the years 2005 (yea, that early things started slowing down in construction)
to 2015 we didn't really train anyone new. My story was a common one; unable
to find work in the trades, I eventually gave up and looked for work
elsewhere. So there is a gap in the training of skilled labor. How long will
it take to recover? Easy, the same 5-10 years we took a break from training
new labor.

~~~
myegorov
Your career path (and its determinants) mirror mine to an uncanny degree.
Nonetheless, I disagree that there's a long-term shortage of skilled labor in
the US in general, or that any short-term shortage has its root cause in
underdeveloped supply channels. I saw first hand how easy it was to procure
non-union labor, even at the height of construction boom circa 2004 (when I
left construction trades) or 2015 (when I left the construction industry as a
licensed engineer). Like yourself, I couldn't compete (or refused to put up
with) what's essentially become a migrant work force. While it does take about
as long to become a skilled carpenter as it takes to become a software
developer (and a strikingly similar mindset too), it's infinitely easier to
employ migrant skilled workers, the workers are highly mobile, there's a ready
supply of them anywhere there's active construction going on, and everyone in
the construction business -- from employers to clients -- has de facto
acquiesced in the status quo where work permits are not enforced. Union labor
is indeed rather inelastic during the periods of boom and bust, but it's also
chronically underemployed, historically shrinking and in the big scheme of
things a tiny portion of the overall labor.

~~~
wyclif
I was a land surveyor from 2000-2008, it's a subset of civil engineering. But
unlike CE, there's a lot of field work and a small amount of office work. In
my case I'd say it was anywhere from 80-90% field and 10-20% office. But even
though surveying is hardly unskilled labour and usually requires a degree, it
was still subject to the same effects the grandparent comment mentions:
constant layoffs in winter, culminating in 2008 and the subprime mortgage
crash (which, surprisingly to some, affected commercial property) when all 12
staff surveyors at the office where I worked were laid off on the same day for
good, with no expectation of being called back ever again.

It will be no surprise to anyone reading this that land surveying is dead now,
especially two/three-man team land surveying. Nobody was trained during those
"gap" periods, and meanwhile the older generation of baby-boom surveyors (of
which there were many) retired. Furthermore, LiDAR, scanning, survey-grade
GPS, and robotic total stations meant that some engineering firms cut corners
and took a chance by sending CEs out into the field solo to do the field work.
That dynamic ensures no training of new surveyors in the field is possible.

EDIT: I'm a developer now.

~~~
roel_v
So what are you saying? Surveyor pay is booming now, or no surveying is needed
any more? ('Needed' as in, people are actually paying to get it done, not
'needed' as in 'people theorize that it would be useful')

~~~
wyclif
The point I'm trying to make is in support of the grandparent comment in this
thread: not many young people choose land surveying as a career because even
though it's hugely needed and necessary to create the built environment, it's
boom or bust. You can't be trained properly and stay in the job if you're
getting laid off every winter. And since LS is protected by a guild
(professional licensure), this drives prices up.

~~~
roel_v
Yes I got that. My point was: as far as I know, surveyors aren't raking in
$250k plus salaries (probably <$100? You probably know better than I do). And
also as far as I know, not all building has stopped because of a lack of
surveyors. So clearly, there are still enough surveyors, potentially using
more productive work methods than they used to to make up for the reduction in
labor supply. People in this thread (like GP) are spinning narratives of real
'choke points' in skill supply; for which there is simply no evidence on the
ground. Sure, some project managers' lives are harder because they have to
account for longer lead times and more uncertainty on resource availability;
and costs go up here and there; but in the end, these are simple issues of
supply and demand that don't even register over the medium (5-10 year) term.

'Labor shortage' is always 'I can't find people at the price I originally
thought I'd have to pay', modulo some time lag dependent on the exact skill
set (i.e., training time).

------
hyperion2010
I had a long talk with a guy getting his general contractor's license
yesterday. He told me that down in San Diego they are continually short on
construction workers, so much that one of his friends said that there is 10
years worth of construction that needs to be done and no one to do it. Wages
at ~$45/hr, and probably rising, some projects paying perdiems for commutes
from Orange County.

Strange.

~~~
gjem97
I always find it a bit strange when people talk about shortages of non-price-
controlled goods and services. When you say that the industry is "short on
construction workers", there's an implicit "who will work for what we used to
pay them." It seems to me like it's someone who hires in that industry trying
to entice more talent to come help lower the price again, rather than an
accurate description of the state of the world.

To be sure, bona-fide shortages can occur transiently. For example when a
natural disaster happens, it will take time for the local tradesmen to work
through the backlog. But at a relatively steady state, it seems silly to talk
about a shortage of construction workers. Pay a bit more than the next guy,
and my guess is, your shortage will quickly disappear.

~~~
zippergz
In my very limited personal experience, it's not _that_ hard to get a worker
to come do a job on my house. It is EXTREMELY hard to get someone who actually
does quality work and is reliable. You could argue that I'd get better and
more reliable people if I paid them more, but the fact is, I pay them what
they ask for. I have very low confidence that just offering to pay double
would make a bad worker into a good one.

~~~
ajross
Consumer services aren't really the point being made upthread, it's employers
looking for supervised labor who can tolerate some spread in skills.

But you can do this too: call up the elite contractors who you can't schedule
because they're "too busy" and give them a big number upfront. "I need my
carpets replaced, I figure this will be $30k, does that sound right?". They'll
be there.

But you have to do the work to know what the right wages are. Employers
already know this stuff, obviously.

~~~
ryandrake
If someone called me up and said, "I've got a software development contract
opportunity for you in Country X, $1000/hr, job should be about 6 months." My
ass would be on a plane that afternoon. So much for the shortage of software
developers.

~~~
GFischer
I would do that for $100/hr :) .

However, there's quite a lot of friction hiring unknown software developers
(so I guess that's why I don't get those offers - I'm not actively hunting for
them).

------
mikeokner
Another key factor is that a lot of baby boomers are reaching retirement age.
With every kid being told college is the only path to become "successful,"
there's going to be a lack of talent in the trades at least in the near term
that's going to continue driving wages higher.

~~~
megaman22
And the all-too-common problem is that firms haven't prepared for the
necessary knowledge transfer when those boomer workers do retire. If you've
got a millwright who's been working in the same plant for forty years since it
opened, he'll know every detail of how things work, where things don't match
the schematics, what's been tried and how well that worked out. You can't just
start that process when they turn in their two-weeks' notice; you've got to
have somebody or somebodies working as assistants, and you've got to pay them
adequately to keep them around. Nobody wants to do that.

~~~
RhodesianHunter
They'll pay for it all right, just down the road when it's some other
executive's problem.

------
pure_ambition
No it won't last, because as soon as the wages start coming up then the fed
will say "inflation is heating up" and raise interest rates, causing
businesses to spend more on debt service and less on employees.

~~~
smallnamespace
Higher rates only affects new issuances of bonds, rolling over of existing
debt, or bank loans (which are a small fraction of the total debt market in
developed economies).

The average maturity of a corporate bond is now 15+ years, and most bonds pay
a fixed interest rate that doesn't vary due to current rates [1].

That means that any change to rates will not have much of an immediate impact
on the interest expense line item. On the other hand, it will actually
_increase_ the interest income they receive on their cash balances.

[1]
[https://www.ft.com/content/41213b02-b87e-11e6-ba85-95d1533d9...](https://www.ft.com/content/41213b02-b87e-11e6-ba85-95d1533d9a62)

~~~
soVeryTired
You think rolling over of debt and new issuance is less important than
interest income?

~~~
smallnamespace
No, but the 15+ year plus maturity of existing debt stock means that on
average, borrowers won't need to go back to the capital markets any time soon.

Slightly oversimplified way to think about it: every year companies need to
refi only 1/T of their debt, where T is the average maturity.

------
PatientTrades
Illegal border crossings on the southern border are down 78% and blue collar
wages are rising. Of course correlation does not equal causation, but when
there are fewer available workers to hire/train and demand remains constant,
wages tend to rise.

------
neves
The article says no, but are there any dissented view that sees a causation
between Trump policies and the rise in blue collar wages?

Please, polite answers only. I'm just a foreigner that want to understand a
little more.

~~~
SamReidHughes
One way that Trump helped is that the illegal migration rate dropped as soon
as he came into office. He scared people out of even trying. You've also got
his halt to the ever-expanding regulatory environment and his opposition to
the TPP.

~~~
eru
Did they actually drop? From what I remember, illegal migration has been
dropping for years now.

------
xefer
Since this article focuses on the U.S., how much of this is related to the
slowdown in illegal immigration?

~~~
danielvf
Probably none [edit: in manufacturing]. Most illegal immigrants don’t work
manufacturing. The three most common jobs for illegals around here are
construction, yardcare, and building cleaning via nested subcontractors.
Manufactures have hard assets they could loose. Sketchy subcontractors can
just disappear and rename.

The growth is from the demand side - people are buying more right now.

~~~
hiram112
Did you even read the article:

>In some industries the labour shortage seems acute. Now is not a good time
for Americans to remodel their bathrooms: tile and terrazzo contractors earn
11% more per hour than a year ago (and fully one-third more than in 2014).

This is exactly the type of jobs that have been flooded by immigrants from
Latin America - both illegal and legal - for decades. I speak Spanish and
often talk with immigrants at bars or wherever, and they work in numerous
industries.

The one thing that changed my view of the whole system was realizing that
absolutely no company gives a shit about the laws. Guys who had been here a
year or less, couldn't speak any English, were hired for government
contracting jobs on roads and the metro paying tons of overtime at near-union
wages.

Also, labor markets are fluid. If a citizen can make more in construction, he
might quit his shitty manufacturing job.

But, hey, anything to continue with the absurd narrative that massive
immigration hasn't been a very major part of wage destruction for both blue-
collar and also white-collar jobs via H1Bs, OPT, L1, etc.

~~~
snarf21
You are right but there are other factors too. We've been pushing mediocre
students through colleges at an exorbitant price when 30 years ago a lot of
these people would have gone into the trades. Supply and demand plays into it
domestically too. I agree that immigrants are filling the gap right now.
Nature abhors a vacuum.

------
jamesmp98
I keep hearing how great blue collar josb are, but looking at glassdoor, most
of them seem to be in the $30k - $50k range in my state

~~~
PopsiclePete
Heh. $50k isn't too bad, is it? Don't nurses start at that?

~~~
jamesmp98
I mean, it depends on where you live I guess. Out here, you can probably live
well on $50k

------
tamrix
Is anyone else finding a lot of these comments are overly exaggerated? It's
like everyone's ego suddenly came out.

~~~
dang
Anything wage-related seems reliably to do that. I suppose it triggers both
survival instincts and status issues.

------
ocschwar
Plumbers can't telecommute.

~~~
onion2k
I imagine there's an opportunity for a startup that let's someone who wants to
do a simple job themselves Facetime with a plumber to talk them through the
work. No idea if there's any profit in it though.

~~~
matt_wulfeck
DIY always breaks down when you need to purchase an expensive tool that you
only use once.

~~~
dcherman
Define expensive. 200$? That's the cost of the plumber's time, and now I've
got that tool forever. That and I've gained knowledge and know how to fix or
build something that I didn't before which is something I take pride in.

In my experience, there's been very few things where it makes more sense long
term to just pay someone else to do it so long as you're willing to do a
little bit of learning.

------
tryingagainbro
I guess 3-4% is better than less /nothing, but seriously, this needs to be
going on for 20-30 years.

------
vadimberman
But, but, but... automation! Singularity! Boston Dynamics robot backflips!

~~~
Strom
If backflipping robots do the easier work, then what is left for humans is the
more complex well paying work. When you remove the lower paying jobs from the
average calculation, the average will rise. Indeed the article even states
that _at 89%, male prime-age [labour market] participation remains close to a
record low_. The article also has an opinion quote stating that _some of the
recent wage gains are misleading, because they have occurred in industries,
such as textile manufacturing, in which employment continues to fall_.

~~~
vadimberman
That's the point, it will take A LOT longer for the robots to replace these
menial jobs. (And they are not all as low-paying.)

I remember articles from one or two decades ago about the attempts to automate
a very dangerous and not even low-paying job of window washing in the high
rise buildings. It is a real problem, it does not require HAL-9000 grade AI
that can analyse Shakespeare, it is economically viable, and neither then nor
now it is completely automated. I see that in Australia, window washing jobs
are paid as high as low to midrange software development.

I am not even going to mention more complex tasks like a work of a plumber, a
gardener, a janitor. Is the work of a janitor the more lucrative occupation?

It takes very long to get from the first demos to a prototype working most of
the time, and even longer from the prototype to a system that can be relied
upon in a mission critical environment (a category that most applications of
robotics fall into). The Silicon Valley prophets got it all backwards.

------
amriksohata
The gap is closing but it means amenities are getting more expensive and since
the people in the middle aren't getting raises it just isn't attractive to
work in a smarter role

~~~
TheAdamAndChe
Right, and as fewer people go into middle class jobs, demand for those workers
will increase and will lead to increased wages.

This is what inflation is. It's all a function of supply and demand.

~~~
thrillgore
It'll be either an increase in wages, or increase in visas for that kind of
labor from overseas.

~~~
amriksohata
Or worse the businesses decide to open shop abroad the jobs disappear from the
local market

~~~
TheAdamAndChe
Hence the growing disdain for globalization. It's a race to the bottom to see
what country will provide the lowest wages and quality of life for its
workers.

~~~
amriksohata
Interesting way of looking at it, and capitalism in general

------
sandworm101
I'm unclear from this article whether wages are going up or _costs_. Wages are
take-home earnings of workers. That is something different than costs to
employers. I need clarification as to whether insurance/tax costs are part of
this math.

Ideally, in such articles I want to see actual numbers. I want to see "the
average wage for a carpenters in 2015 was X, and today is is X+10%". I'm not
so sure that those numbers are changing all that much.

------
anovikov
Maybe this is simple fact of exhausting of 'Chinese advantage' of lower wages
in developing countries, that used to drive jobs abroad? Even about 2007,
there were forecasts that Chinese wages will rise to the level which no longer
drives American jobs away - to ~20% of American level, rest is compensated by
lower productivity - by about 2015. It was long ago expected to be a
turnaround year. So why are everyone surprised?

------
m0llusk
It is interesting that wages spiked and yet hourly rate is being considered
the only relevant factor by many. Most of these jobs require behaving in a
servile manner toward some assholes who have zero respect or commitment and
start the process with a drug test in order to make the fundamental lack of
trust explicit. The way corporate America treats candidates and employees is
unacceptable at any price for many people.

~~~
linkregister
Have you ever worked a construction or labor job? I don't recall ever having
to act in a servile way.

Service jobs on the other hand were the most humiliating experiences of my
life. We were expected to take harsh abuse from customers while issuing
apologies.

------
roseburg
It's a labor shortage more than anything else they listed. It's not an energy
boom, weak dollar, Trump etc.

The question should be "why is this a surprise?"

Does our culture esteem people that work with their hands? Do parents
encourage their children to aspire to learn trade skills? Does our educational
system encourage students to learn trade skills and explore the trades as
highly viable alternatives to going to college?

We've looked down at the trades and blue-collar work for decades. The evidence
is everywhere. Of course there is a shortage, students have been listening to
the adults in their lives, their peers, media outside of Mike Rowe etc and
have heard the message loud and clear.

Solutions; I see two things that need to happen.

First, we need to reach and communicate to students and adults across the
country that trade skills are valuable and a career in the trades is an
outstanding option.

Create a more efficient, affordable and accessible resources for people to
learn trade skills, no matter their location, age, income, nationality etc. We
need to make it 10x easier for people to learn the skills that are in demand.

I’m working on both those solutions at Tradeskills.io Definitely a lot to
figure out!

------
fredgrott
it's just a repeat...something goes up and everyone jumps not realizing that
the boiling water has already started to simmer...I am referring to the
general lack of economic growth per country...the longer that goes on..the
worse the boiling water will feel at the end..will we be boiled or will we
finally understand our grave future economic peril

------
dsfyu404ed
ITT a bunch of white collar software engineers discuss subjects about which
most have zero familiarity.

~~~
cylinder
When blue collar wages rise it is due to flawed economic policies!

When white collar tech wages rise it is because they are creating an
incredible amount of economic value and deserve all of it! It is absolutely
all because of their own genius!

------
danielvf
I worked with small / medium manufacturers in the prosperous part of the
Southeast. Hiring is brutal currently.

Last week one company setup interviews with 20 possible new workers. One
showed up for his interview, and one wandered in the next day. 18 nonshows.

Another local company is seeing 50% of new hires failing their first drug
test.

Anecdotaly, about 20% of new hires under 30 don’t understand the concept of
showing up on time (or at all) even after that’s explained as a part of
orientation.

Sub $160,000 houses (3-4 bedrooms, land, average schools, 15-30 minute
commute) are now selling in 1-3 days, compared with 3-6 months five years ago.
There’s definitely a boom getting started here.

~~~
lostlogin
I hate the drug testing bs. How is that relevant? If the worker is present, is
sober, and not hungover what business is it of the employers what the employee
does on their own time? The drugs that are readily detectable are mostly the
ones that don’t matter too, while the ones that are more concerning (to me
anyway) are either not tested for or are not detectable fairly fast. And
alcohol is ok to abuse. Why?

It would be interesting to test white collar workers.

~~~
VLM
stealth intelligence test. For a variety of interesting historical reasons,
the government hates intelligence tests as a hiring criteria and this is the
blue collar stealth/workaround IQ test. Its the blue collar equivalent of
fizzbuzz or a gitlab repo.

Look, you got one task, one task only, it's not even hard to figure out, do
not, repeat, do not, get high the week or two before your pee test. That
simple. There are human bipeds burning valuable oxygen right now, who can't
follow a test that elaborate and complicated. They are literally the kind of
people where if you told them not to lick a circuit breaker, would turn around
and an hour later electrocute themselves and probably a coworker or two by
licking a circuit breaker on the jobsite. Whats the minimum IQ and discipline
level necessary to pass a pee test? Not much, but there are failures out there
walking around...

Its interesting that as far as I know this is the first strictly chemistry
based IQ test. AFAIK there is no "pee in a bottle to determine if you can
fizzbuzz" test for code monkey work. No chemical marker that can identify if
you know the modulus operator... not yet...

~~~
discreteevent
> who can't follow a test that elaborate and complicated.

There's also the possibility that giving up an addiction is not an
intellectual activity (if you think about it a little!)

~~~
Simon_says
Maybe ...

But the process of getting addicted certainly involves making some choices
poorly.

~~~
lostlogin
My addiction to coffee involved no poor choices, I don’t regret it and it
makes me a better person. Lack of it makes my performance much worse, I get a
migraine with vertigo and vomiting.

~~~
Simon_says
You seem to be confusing physical dependence with addiction. By your
definition, you'd be addicted to food, as I'm sure you'd have adverse
consequences, including worse performance, in its absence.

Addiction is continued use in the face of adverse consequences. [1] You may
have a physical dependence on coffee, but it doesn't sound like you're
experiencing negative consequences in your life from its use.

[1] [https://www.addictioninfo.org/articles/2216/1/Addiction-
Do-Y...](https://www.addictioninfo.org/articles/2216/1/Addiction-Do-You-Need-
Help/Page1.html)

------
thanatropism
This comment (not by me; the poster name isn't even visible anymore):

> Illegal border crossings on the southern border are down 78% and blue collar
> wages are rising. Of course correlation does not equal causation, but when
> there are fewer available workers to hire/train and demand remains constant,
> wages tend to rise.

was marked dead. Why? Is the illegal crossing number wrong/fake news?

~~~
stemc43
illegals dont have SSNs. EMployers have to run ssn verification before they
hire you. These checks are instant and this will popup immediately. Can they
still hire you - well maybe for janitorial -> manufacturing jobs I'd say
highly unlikely.

~~~
smallnamespace
This is definitely not the case. E-Verify has existed for a long time, but is
still not mandatory [1].

Employers are supposed to have employees fill out an I-9 form that verifies
employment eligibility, but the penalties for noncompliance are at most $1,100
per form -- basically slap on the wrist territory [2].

The irony here is that the anti-immigration wing of the Republican party is
now in open conflict with the business wing of the party, which benefits
heavily from hiring ineligible workers for low wages.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-Verify#Operations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-Verify#Operations)

[2] [https://www.thebalance.com/i-9-form-employment-
eligibility-v...](https://www.thebalance.com/i-9-form-employment-eligibility-
verification-form-1918902)

~~~
ryanmarsh
I've never used E-verify. I just use people's I-9. Everyone I've ever hired
was born in the US so I never thought about this.

------
margorczynski
Does every paragraph needs to rephrase that it isn't thanks to Trump? Maybe
I'm wrong but lately it seems every US media outlet needs to mention him this
way or another in every topic possible (positive or negative light)

~~~
rm999
I think you may be underestimating the importance of this article to US
politics. One of the biggest issues in the 2016 election was stagnating blue-
collar wages - it was one of Trump's main platforms, and one of the main
factors that made him President. If the economy continues to do well across
all income levels, regardless of why, and regardless of how unpopular Trump
remains, there is a good chance we will see a second Trump term. As much as I
dislike him, Scott Adams made this exact argument recently:
[http://blog.dilbert.com/2017/10/14/low-public-approval-of-
pr...](http://blog.dilbert.com/2017/10/14/low-public-approval-of-president-
trump-yet-unusually-high-consumer-confidence-hmmm/)

As Bill Clinton said, "it's the economy, stupid".

~~~
thanatropism
Did you begin disliking Scott Adams when he became a Trump booster, or...?

~~~
victor106
No. When he let it out that 1\. He supports the NRA even after the recent gun
violence 2\. When he supported Trumps statements during Charlottesville 3\.
When he keeps saying on Twitter how the alt-right is so correct.

------
dionidium
I work at a medium-sized software company. We've had similar problems with
younger employees. Guys literally posting in company-wide Slack channels that
they're "feeling a little sleepy this morning, gonna be in later."

Can you even imagine somebody saying that to their boss in some black-and-
white movie from the 1940s? "Hey, how about instead of coming in later you hit
the bricks and never come back?"

The culture has _definitely_ changed. It's wild.

~~~
bluedino
>> "feeling a little sleepy this morning, gonna be in later."

Most clients don't want to deal with that kind of behavior.

"It's been 3 hours, why is the site still down?"

"The developer isn't in yet to fix it."

Being reliable and showing up to work on time is a job skill as much as good
communication, being a hard worker, etc

I realize that you should be flexible with workers' hours but people also need
to realize coverage is needed.

~~~
johngalt
There certainly was an element of punctuality that has been lost, but it goes
both ways. Clients don't want to deal with this either: "Sorry it's 5:01pm.
The dev will be back tomorrow morning. Enjoy being down for the next 16hrs."

I'm all-in for the _kids these days sheesh_ comments, but if you think 'back
in the day' workers had the constant availability expectation that we have in
the modern era with cell phones, that's just factually incorrect. It wasn't
only employees that reliably adhered to the schedule, it was also management.
If that changes, both sides should accept the trade offs, otherwise you are
expecting the employee to treat the schedule as sacred, while the employer
treats the schedule as something which is changed on a whim.

Lazy unreliable people certainly exist, but they don't usually last that long
in any role. Poisonous management practices that set people up for failure
have a much longer shelf life and do more damage.

~~~
bluedino
>> "Sorry it's 5:01pm. The dev will be back tomorrow morning. Enjoy being down
for the next 16hrs."

For better or for worse, it's not expected to receive service after hours.

But first thing in morning...

------
eighthnate
I could have sworn this same article was one the front of HN a few days ago...

------
ransom1538
>> "Anecdotaly, about 20% of new hires under 30 don’t understand the concept
of showing up on time (or at all)"

Don't kid yourself. Those new hires are at other jobs making more money. I am
booked for a roofer in feb 2018 (fingers crossed - friend of a friend). Blue
skills are in extremely high demand. And those guys are working extremely hard
making really high incomes (400k+). These guys are highly paid and are not
messing around -- most saw 2008. They drive nice trucks, own their company,
have rude secretaries and wont look at your email until feb 18 (fingers
crossed). Look at a blue collar guys' current circumstance: no competition
(know anyone learning HVAC?), a HUGE housing boom in cali, pass through low
tax income, 2k homes burned (wtf), no outsourcing (try outsourcing a plumber)
-- as my mentor said: "Harvest time".

~~~
southphillyman
Where can one go to learn these "blue collar" skills? As a recent home owner
I'm learning first hand how valuable these skills are by way of my wallet.
Seems like most people I meet who do these kinds of jobs were "born into it",
and learned by helping a family member who was already in the industry. Are
there IIT type schools which teach these kinds of things on a part time basis?

~~~
giobox
For a great many, youtube is surprisingly awesome. My normal approach to home
DIY now is to watch as many youtube videos of the process I want to try as
possible, then make a determination if it is something I still want
professional help with or can try to do myself.

~~~
avasylev
YouTube is awesome for DIY, I moved to older house two years ago and with
youtube helps I've added crown moldings, repainted all rooms, replaced
baseboard, built patio, deck - lots of fun, I think without youtube I wouldn't
done any of it, zero experience before. Funny, my dad did a lot of
renovations, and a lot of times I'd get more details/better tips on youtube
than asking him :) But youtube is great for common DIY projects - how to add
crown molding - tens of really good detailed videos. But if project is less
commonly done by DIY folks, not that much info - I've needed to replace
exterior window trim - not that much, people usually hire for that.

DIY subreddit is also a good place to search and ask questions.

~~~
Y7ZCQtNo39
Would you say, for example, your painting is good as a professionals (e.g.,
paint lines are straight with respect to adjacent walls / ceiling, etc)? As
someone who anticipates being a homeowner in a few years, I wonder if it's
possible the first time you learn how to do something (without having the best
technique for the skill) to get the best outcome.

I wouldn't want my home improvement projects to look half-assed just because I
wasn't experienced or knew the "best practices" for the given home improvement
task.

~~~
phil21
I think you'll find that it varies by the job and your own personal level of
"halfassed".

I can do most home maintenance stuff - electrical, most plumbing, fixtures,
appliance repair, etc. I pay someone to do drywall work or painting - because
I'm pretty picky and I can always see where my work falls short.

I think you'll find for finishing work practice makes perfect and is where
professionals shine. You can certainly do professional quality work, but
expect a learning curve and to be re-doing sections of projects that don't
turn out too well. I know several homeowners who have re-done bathrooms
themselves, and only one would I say turned out professional looking in
quality. That guy is simply a perfectionist who spent an inordinate amount of
time on the project.

~~~
Y7ZCQtNo39
Yeah, I'd imagine as a homeowner, I'd want projects (at least those where the
outcome matters visually), to have that professionalism.

I kind of would want to be a bit further up the learning curve, but if you
only have 1 or 2 bedrooms, you don't have much by way to learn, so it seems
like having a professional is probably worth the premium vs. your own labor
(if you're like me and highly value the aesthetic end result).

------
seibelj
I keep reading that AI is going to eliminate all the jobs. Yet unemployment is
at record lows and wages are rising across the board.

Could it be possible that AI will instead free people to work on new jobs in
new industries? Amazing! It’s almost like this time is not any different from
any other time.

~~~
Density
Overwhelming number of jobs created in the last decade are very low quality
gig economy jobs. People work, but they're severely underemployed.

~~~
humanrebar
> ...very low quality gig economy jobs...

Gig jobs are fine if people can provide their own emergency fund and pay out
of pocket for their own benefits. That is, the difference between "gig job"
and a "successful sole proprietorship" is how much money one makes.

