

Oil prices: Is there an oil bubble? What will the future price of oil be? - yummyfajitas
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/06/the-future-of-o.html

======
sunshinegroopie
At least this guy is willing to admit that he was wrong once before.

But I'm afraid that he's wrong once again.

New crude is still constantly being discovered it's just that it's being
discovered at higher and higher break even prices.

Alberta tar sands are coming in at $15 per barrel of crude equivalent break
even.

Rocky Mountain Oil Shale is now being reported by Shell to come in at $30 per
barrel of crude equivalent break even.

There are still massive reserves in northern Alaska and off the pacific and
atlantic coasts. China is exploring in the Sudan and that african nation is
now cranking out half million barrels a day.

Oil only becomes non-renewable when all the energy companies stop exploring.
That is not happening.

~~~
timr
Price prediction is a fool's errand, if only because the ability to do it
would itself affect the dynamics of the market.

That said, it's also pretty difficult to predict prices of commodities that
are caught up in a bubble. How does one model irrational behavior?

------
farid3136
it s 200$ in next year

