
Face Masks Considerably Reduce Covid-19 Cases in Germany - zeristor
https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/13319/face-masks-considerably-reduce-covid-19-cases-in-germany-a-synthetic-control-method-approach
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vikramkr
It looks like this is the equivalent of a preprint. So, while an interesting
finding, a general reminder to take it with a grain of salt and recognize that
there might be issues in the statistics (maybe confounding variables that
weren't controlled for) that would lead to revised results if fixed, and we've
also seen peer reviewed publications like the Lancet paper that were also hit
with data integrity issues. It's a good data point to keep in mind, and you
should probably be wearing a mask, but we'll need a meta-analysis of a lot of
these studies over the next year or so to know to any level of certainty how
much they actually helped. That's not useful for our behavior right now of
course, but in terms of drawing conclusions, always keep in mind that initial
analyses lime this are just that, initial. From the paper:

"IZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to
encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its
provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the
author."

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KarlKemp
This is a completely vapid and entirely generic attack that could be posted,
verbatim, in any discussion of any research paper.

I'm barely exaggerating with "verbatim": remove the parenthetical ", and you
should probably be wearing a mask" as well as the quote at the end, and read
it again. It could be concern-trolling any statistics paper, ever!

And what's the point, exactly? Sometimes, results from research later turn out
to be wrong, and therefore it is best to completely ignore them? At some point
you'll deign enough time to have passed to allow some research to be useful.
But until then, you also recommend masks, because..? How is your hunch a
better barometer of truth than actual research using real-world data?

~~~
somewhereoutth
Indeed. The first response to anything challenging someone's (imprinted?)
worldview is to nit pick on some detail, in order to invalidate the
uncomfortable thesis with which they are presented.

~~~
vikramkr
This paper isn't challenging my worldview. It's supporting it. I posted the
disclaimer because the paper is a preprint and it's easy to not get that fact
when you just look at the title of this post and scroll through the comments.

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sjdrc
I can only speak to Frankfurt (am Main) and Munich, but particularly in the
last week as weather has improved the general public’s concern towards the
virus seems to be very low. Shopping areas are swamped with people, walking
around in groups, queueing outside stores with very little regard for keeping
even a polite distance from other people (even without a pandemic).
Anecdotally, in a train Station on Friday I was waiting outside a bubble tea
shop for around 10 minutes, and perhaps 5-10% of people were wearing masks
properly (if at all) and even attempting to keep more than a metre distance
from other people.

Bars and clubs have for some reason re-opened contrary to rules set by the
local governments, I have seen 0 proactive or reactive enforcement of any
rules by police or other authorities.

Some places are enforcing mask use, in supermarkets for example every customer
is required to wear a mask and take a trolley to try and keep distance between
customers, but the number of people wearing masks only over their mouths and
leaving their noses exposed, or simply abandoning their trolley once inside
and moving very close to other people is very high.

~~~
blub
Indeed, the confused and fragmented situation caused by each county inside
Germany having its own super-detailed and ridiculous rules is making
compliance plummet.

The 1.5-2m idea is anyway a failure:

* first of all, it only allows one to dodge larger droplets.

* second of all, it's humanly impossible to respect this rule. When meeting acquaintances or friends there's a constant unconscious pull to get closer - in practice the distance is 70cm and often less. Crowded areas and narrow corridors or pathways make a mockery of it likewise.

The obsessive focus on hard to implement personal distancing and aversion to
masks is embarrassing.

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seesawtron
It is indeed very surprising to see the sharp drop in Covid-19 cases in
Germany. If I understand correctly, this is also not a randomized trial. I am
not sure how they constructed the "control" group here to which they are
comparing. It is a synthetic group where they extrapolate cases from n-7 days
where n is the day of introduction of mandatory use of masks?

It is hard to not be tempted to think about several confounding variables that
could have played a role in the drop that is seen, like people being more
vigilant, following distance guidelines, working from home more often, the
list goes on. Nevertheless, it was an interesting read.

~~~
Lewton
> like people being more vigilant, following distance guidelines, working from
> home more often

Germany was in “lockdown” mode (in quotes because their lockdown never
actually needed to be that strict due to proactive reaction) way before
requiring masks, that’s why they’re such a good case study

All the things you’ve listed as potential confounding variables are much more
likely to have gone in the opposite direction due to lockdown fatigue. It’s
extremely unlikely that everyone suddenly got much more vigilant two months
into the pandemic

~~~
seesawtron
The opposite of "lockdown fatigue" could also happen where people get used to
and better at carrying out the necessary restrictions and precautionary
measures in their day to day life. There's just not enough hard evidence to be
sure what factors would cause what effect in any un-controlled experimental
setting.

Nevertheless, masks don't hurt so one should go with the Pascal's wager
argument.

~~~
blub
No, people just don't care any more, at least in my area. I think masks are
only worn now in in supermarkets and doctor's practices because it's mandatory
and people are not keeping distance any more, meeting friends, going out in
groups, etc.

If one didn't know better, it all looks like business as usual.

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tonyedgecombe
It’s probably both. Half of my close family is vulnerable and so we are still
taking it very seriously. Some of my neighbours have been casual about it all
the way through.

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somewhereoutth
There are clearly potential upsides (in terms of saving lives) of mandatory
public mask wearing. What are the potential downsides (in those same terms)?

~~~
redis_mlc
That's your opinion. I haven't seen anything proven yet.

And "saving lives" has become the new "think of the children" excuse for
irrational public policy and laws. All public policy requires a cost-benefit
analysis.

For example, banning cars would reduce automobile fatalities by 30,000/year in
the US. But we aren't banning cars.

~~~
seesawtron
We aren't banning cars because we understand the cause of automobile
fatalities. There are well defined laws and regulations implemented to curtail
those fatalities. But people still choose to drive irrationally, they choose
to disobey those regulations, violate the speed limits, so on and so forth
putting their and other's lives in danger.

Going by this analogy, implementing mandatory masks is one such regulation to
prevent covid infections and deaths as is implementing traffic rules to
prevent automobile fatalities.

Since we have not had enough time to deeply understand the spread of this
virus and its affect on all of us (unlike automobile fatalities), the state
has no choice but to follow the safest policy that seems to work. But, of
course, you are right to question whether this policy is the best we can do or
not which remains to be seen as we witness the coming months.

~~~
redis_mlc
> implementing mandatory masks is one such regulation to prevent covid
> infections

Again, we don't know that.

"Doing something, anything" is not better than doing nothing.

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rasz
Surprising considering hardly anyone wore them. <edit video link was from last
year>

