

Ask HN: What is the Future of Bitcoin? - vinchuco

In the following:
5 years
10 years
20 years
40+ years<p>Where do you base your predictions?
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justinireland
Its fairly simple to estimate future value of BTC. The supply is fixed - there
will never be more than 21,000,000 BTC in circulation so the only other factor
is how big you think Bitcoin will become relative to other currencies.

For example, there is about 1.22 Trillion USD in circulation. Right now BTC
has a market capitalization of $4B which puts it at about 0.3% of USD. If BTC
were to become even 5% of USD that would be a 16x increase over where it is
now ($330 x 16 = $5500). So if you believe that BTC could be at least 5% of
what USD is then you should expect BTC to be worth about $5500 ea.

I personally think that is a conservative estimate. I expect at least $10k in
the next 5 years.

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a3voices
This is my prediction. Exponential growth based on its history so far.

[http://i.imgur.com/GOYWUMo.png](http://i.imgur.com/GOYWUMo.png)

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vinchuco
not to dismiss your point, but [http://xkcd.com/605/](http://xkcd.com/605/)

~~~
a3voices
Nothing is totally predictable or unpredictable. Partly the reason we have
brains is so we can predict the future. With enough knowledge and
intelligence, you can do a decent job at it.

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yen223
My prediction: The fact that the supply of Bitcoins is fixed will bite it in
the ass in the future. Some major player will hoard enough Bitcoins to be able
to control the market, reducing people's trust in the currency and relegating
the currency to a niche. Bitcoin will almost definitely not displace the USD
within our lifetime.

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ra00l
At the current price (also growing as we speak), I think it's difficult to use
bitcoins for buying stuff. Everybody is hoarding them, hoping for increases;
hence the growth.

How much will you pay for a coffe or an icecream? .0045 BTC? I see btc as a
proof of concept that worked: easy, distributed way of transfering money.

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ferdo
The future price of Bitcoin will recapitulate the rise of information:

[http://peculium.net/2013/04/08/bitcoin-is-a-bubble-only-
if-y...](http://peculium.net/2013/04/08/bitcoin-is-a-bubble-only-if-you-think-
the-rise-of-information-is-a-bubble/)

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adamb_
Here's my speculative answer:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6687535](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6687535)

