
Is The Guitar Market Really Dying? - himynamesdave
https://www.vintageguitarprice.com/blog/2017/is-the-guitar-market-really-dying/
======
iamcasen
As a life-long guitarist, and skeptic of capitalism, I have an anecdote: I own
a few high-quality guitars. They have served me well for many a decade, and
they are still in perfect condition. Why buy any more guitars?

Perhaps the total number of guitars in circulation is enough? Businesses seem
to think that there should be infinite growth forever, but that seems
ridiculous to me. I don't think capitalism has a good answer to this problem.
Obviously the manufacturers wish for people to buy more and more guitars every
year or they go out of business. How can we reward them for a job well done
now that more aren't needed?

~~~
jjtheblunt
Capitalism and the unrealistic idea of infinite sales growth is what gives
rise to "services" and "subscriptions", no?

~~~
qwerty_asdf
Hush! Don't speak of such things, or before you know it there will be DRM
enforced IoT dongles with 4G cellular radios, requiring a subscription plan
and annual fee before the guitar pick-ups will serialize their signal to a 1/4
inch patch cable.

~~~
navbaker
We regret to inform you that we will be discontinuing server support for your
myFender.

------
mgdo
Some interesting and related Google Trends:

\- "Learn Guitar":
[https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=learn%20...](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=learn%20guitar)

\- "Play Guitar":
[https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=play%20g...](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=play%20guitar)

\- "Guitar vs Piano":
[https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=guitar,p...](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=guitar,piano)

------
bherms
As a lifetime guitar player and owner of way too many, I think what I've seen
(and keep in mind this is only anecdotal) is that boutique guitar makers are
making a big comeback while traditional mass producers are seeing less
interest. If I'm going to spend $2500-7500 on a top of the line guitar (that
is often an art piece as well) I'd rather work with a craft builder and get
something unique to my specs versus a mass produced Fender strat or Gibson Les
Paul.

~~~
cr0sh
I can't speak to Gibson, but I know that if you have enough money, you can
certainly get Fender to work with you on a custom spec guitar.

~~~
bherms
Yeah all of the builders have custom shops, but usually when I see "custom
shop" come from big companies like Gibson, it's basically "modified les paul"
with cooler wood and different pickups.

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bagrow
Maybe, but isolating particular trends from overall changes in search
interests is challenging.

Here's the trend for "music":
[https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=music](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=music)

which is also decreasing. Is music dying?

~~~
brudgers
Software changed the industry. There are more efficient places to search for
music than Google. They are more efficient because from search to playing or
playlist is one click.

------
claudiulodro
Reverb.com was #18 on the Inc. 5000 this year, so there is definitely still
potential in selling musical instruments. Guitar is more niche than it used to
be, though. The rock stars these days are rappers and DJs and they don't play
guitar. You have to diversify your offerings (which I think the success of
Reverb.com shows)

~~~
micaksica
> The rock stars these days are rappers and DJs and they don't play guitar.

And nearly every kid can afford a shitty chinese USB->MIDI controller and a
cracked version of Live/Logic/FL Studio. The DAW and a controller is the
weapon of choice for today's pop music industry. The fact that guitar is dying
as "mainstream" shouldn't come as much of a surprise.

~~~
ams6110
We just need to wait a generation. Then digitally generated pop will be seen
as"mom and dad's music" and real instruments will be novel and interesting.

------
rapjr9
Maybe guitar makers are not innovating? Other stringed instruments have
basically remained the same for centuries, but electric guitars were born out
of modifications to standard guitars. Hendrix was a guitar hacker. Most of the
electric guitars on the market today are no different than those sold 30 years
ago. There are a few new ideas (midi accessories, built in effects, the Moog
guitar, more than 6 strings, Steinberger's, cryogenically treated strings,
better tremolo's, guitar synths) but few people are into hacking guitars any
more. Your mom and dad may play electric guitar, it isn't radical or
rebellious. And few are trying to invent new styles of playing either. So the
sound and use of guitars has remained fairly static for a long time (except
for Fred Frith!). Perhaps this explains the recent interest in Eurorack
synthesizers? A return to creating fundamentally new sounds by tinkering with
the basic elements of sound.

It's kind of like the smartphone market, the manufacturers have tried all the
easy improvements (bigger screens, faster CPU's, better GPU's, thin bodies)
but haven't tried the more difficult things (unusual sensors, regional
peer-2-peer communication, serious FDA approved medical sensing/apps, light
based communication, UWB links into IoT networks, etc.) Though AI chips may
result in some significant new ideas. Maybe deep learning AI chips for guitars
would rev the market? You teach your guitar some notes/chords and then it can
generate different arrangements/timings/bends for you that actually sound
interesting? Maybe not since deep learning can only mimic what it learns.

------
chiefalchemist
Music tastes run in cycles. If vinyl can make a comeback so might guitars.

That said, anecdotally, kids today don't do adversity; they want instant
gratification. Learning to play guitar takes time, lots of it. In the current
climate a comeback seems pretty unlikely.

~~~
mandelbrotwurst
Eh, get off my lawn with your generalizations about "kids today" =/

Maybe at least provide one of your anecdotes?

~~~
chiefalchemist
How about I get off your cloud? ;)

------
albutr
There's a surprising amount of cork-sniffing that goes on in the guitar world,
and I think that plays a role in slowing down the decline of the guitar
market.

Just try searching for advice on what guitar to buy, and you'll be inundated
with people claiming that tiny little differences (e.g. rosewood vs maple
fretboards or lacquer vs poly finishes on an electric) have huge effects on
the overall sounds, which is clearly not true. The idea that there's always
something better to buy drives some people to keep purchasing. I'm sure
there's some degree of this with other instruments, but guitar seems to be
particularly bad.

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stcredzero
I suspect that this should really be thought of as, "The biggest buying
opportunity, ever!" in the guitar market.

~~~
jasode
A lot of people are predicting an "ebay guitar apocalypse" as the mass effect
of guitar owners start passing away. Because "nobody plays them anymore", the
inheritors of dad's property will just put the guitar collection on ebay or
donate them.

Your dad's fancy Paul Reed Smith guitar that cost $3000 will only be worth a
fraction of that when a million other used PRS guitars flood the market.

It's an interesting prediction.

~~~
stcredzero
_Because "nobody plays them anymore", the inheritors of dad's property will
just put the guitar collection on ebay or donate them._

You already have this in instrument markets for traditional music. Trad
musicians are minorities in the general culture, but their market demand for
once-mainstream mass produced instruments of yesteryear can still support
prices. (Paolo Soprani B,C button accordion, anyone?) Sure, you still have the
occasional find, where someone sells something for 1/10th the price they could
have gotten out of ignorance.

I wonder if everyone is going to be satisfied with making music on a laptop? I
also wonder if playing a guitar is ever going to stop getting people laid? If
you have both of these conditions, then guitars might go the way of the
Flageolett. Historically, "outdated" instruments flooding markets at bargain
prices have tended to give rise to new musical opportunities in
underprivileged communities. Occasionally, they give rise to new genres.

------
exabrial
Did you know you can buy a $350 "Gibson Les Paul" that says "made in the USA"
on AliExpress? The guitar in question is CNC cut and then hand assembled. I
may speak from experience when I say the item is very high quality and is a
pretty danged good guitar.

The point here being that it's an industry what are the American players have
not modernized their manufacturing process... We live in an amazing age where
you can own an extraordinary instrument for very little money.

~~~
synthmeat
Link? [1] gives me no results for that price range and search keywords.

[1]
[https://www.aliexpress.com/wholesale?minPrice=300&maxPrice=4...](https://www.aliexpress.com/wholesale?minPrice=300&maxPrice=400&isBigSale=n&isFreeShip=n&isNew=n&isFavorite=n&isMobileExclusive=n&isLocalReturn=n&shipCountry=HR&shipFromCountry=&shipCompanies=&SearchText=gibson+les+paul&CatId=0&g=y&initiative_id=SB_20171117145736&needQuery=y)

~~~
bherms
Didn't see any marketing themselves as Gibsons, but here's a "Gretsch" White
Falcon in that range: [https://www.aliexpress.com/item/Hot-selling-white-
Gretsch-fa...](https://www.aliexpress.com/item/Hot-selling-white-Gretsch-
falcon-jazz-guitar-semi-hollow-boby-electric-guitar-with-
bigsby/32790108832.html?spm=2114.search0104.3.136.01pKbC&ws_ab_test=searchweb0_0,searchweb201602_2_10152_10065_10151_10344_10068_10130_10345_10324_10342_10547_10325_10343_10546_10340_10341_10548_10545_10541_10562_10084_10083_10307_5680011_10178_10060_10155_10154_10539_10312_10059_10313_10314_10534_10533_100031_10103_10073_10594_10557_10558_10596_10595_10142_10107,searchweb201603_25,ppcSwitch_2&btsid=f3b80840-5bbc-4506-9b4a-ae0ab1dd7406&algo_expid=8d9d3bf4-8c33-4f11-8496-edd81b8b3334-17&algo_pvid=8d9d3bf4-8c33-4f11-8496-edd81b8b3334&rmStoreLevelAB=0)

------
mbroncano
Everything old is new again. I wasn't even a teenager when everybody was
convinced the guitar bands were gone for good. As mentioned somewhere else in
the thread, back in the sixties the same history.

I'm been playing for almost 30 years, and what I've seen in the last few ones
is, I can buy a guitar for 300 bucks that beats anything that I owned as a
teenager for that same price. And I'm not even touching the amp market, it's
crazy what the same money can buy in terms of quality and flexibility.

I'm hesitant about this, but I'm half sure this deflactionaty process is going
to actually popularize playing the guitar in the middle term.

------
rumblestrut
I would love to buy a new guitar. I had a PRS in the 90’s and loved it. I
never should have sold it.

A lot of guitars (PRS included) are now made cheaply overseas. They’re decent,
but to me they’re still not good enough. I think they’re crap.

It’s a shame the industry has fallen, but the industry did this to itself. But
rest assured, guitar rock will eventually make a comeback. Music trends in
waves.

Will the guitar industry be ready when it does?

------
MarceloBirnbach
at Bandhub ([http://bandhub.com](http://bandhub.com)) we try to solve a
fundamental problem most recreational musicians have... we give them a
community of like-minded people who care about their music, and the tools to
make music together online. Musicians who get engaged in Bandhub obtain
meaningful social experiences. We believe this market needs to be disrupted in
a similar way to what happened with online social gaming

------
sssilver
Relevant discussion --
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14627673](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14627673)

------
jamestimmins
Brings to mind the quote "Guitar groups are on their way out, Mr Epstein."

This was a music exec telling The Beatles' manager why he wouldn't sign them.

------
erichmond
Electronic samples are the new guitars.

~~~
npgatech
That is ridiculous. Electronic music production is a completely separate
market.

~~~
jonknee
A separate market that is taking market share from guitars...

------
AdmiralAsshat
Are we sure people aren't just shifting to buying more used guitars on
Craigslist or something?

~~~
jasode
On just about every observable measure ... including cruise ships[1], guitar
is dying in popularity. You might get a few minor bumps of new interest
because of recent artists like Taylor Swift but _overall_ , guitar is way
down.

I learned guitar and never imagined that the instrument would fade but that's
exactly what has happened. Electronic music and laptops are this generation's
instrument of choice.

[1] [https://www.forbes.com/sites/bobbyowsinski/2013/10/08/the-
de...](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bobbyowsinski/2013/10/08/the-demise-of-
the-electric-guitar-in-music/#7c61b27a2295)

~~~
mabub24
I think there are 3 reasons why the guitar is "dying" as the instrument of
choice:

1\. The explosion in popularity of EDM in the mid 00's to early 10's, and the
prevalence of EDM elements now dominating pop music rather than the notion of
a backing band; most pop bands now feature a guitarist, but the guitar is
secondary to synths and samples if it is heard at all.

2\. The rise of hip-hop, mixtape culture online, and hip-hop focused rock
music in the 90's and early 00's, shifted popular rock music and the cultural
zeitgeist away from a focus on guitar-driven rock music. Once again samples
and synths became the focus, even in punk music. This lead to a new focus:
"indie" rock and the internet could make anyone with a laptop famous.

3\. The general decline in rock music quality. I might be alone in this
opinion, but popular rock music in the early 00's to today remains bland and
the guitar equally so. This era also saw the rebirth of hardcore and more
extreme forms of metal where the guitar remains the focus, and creativity
abounds, but out of the public eye.

