
Japan machinery orders fall most in eight months - hhs
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-orders/japan-machinery-orders-fall-most-in-eight-months-in-worrying-sign-for-economy-idUSKCN1U301J
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cletus
So 8 months ago was a bigger drop. Why should we panic now? Was 8 months ago
an aberration due to extraordinary events and now isn't? Is there something
else we're missing?

Whenever I see a story like this I always wonder "well, what were they saying
when this happened the last time?". Here's one example [1].

This article actually seems more focused on "what does this mean for Japan?"
and seems to use this data point from a self-proclaimed "highly volatile"
series as a stalking horse for the planned sales tax hike, assumedly to argue
it'll hurt the economy.

[1] [https://www.euronews.com/2018/11/02/japan-september-
machiner...](https://www.euronews.com/2018/11/02/japan-september-machinery-
orders-set-to-drop-but-firms-capex-seen-staying-firm-reuters-poll)

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tabtab
All the usual signs have been pointing toward a US recession for quite a
while. (US recessions generally result in a global recession.) However, the
bottom has yet to fall out. Nobody is sure why, but based on historical
record, I wouldn't bet against the bottom not falling out.

Lack of inflation seems to play a role. It allows the Federal Reserve to keep
interest rates relatively low. However, it also means that interest rates may
no longer be a good tool to regulate the economy in terms of smoothing booms
and busts. That could be a problem after a crash because other stimulus tools
are weakened due to the deficit. The next slump will be interesting...

~~~
apta
Relying on interest is a predatory and harmful behavior in the economy. Any
economy based on interest is inherently unstable and un-equal. It's no wonder
the Abrahamic religions outright banned interest (i.e. usury).

