
Japan’s 99% Conviction Rate [audio] - lifeisstillgood
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p080pgdy
======
olingern
Current resident of Tokyo. Can be a little scary when getting randomly
searched. I could argue, but my Japanese is intermediate and the police are
always right.

A youtuber interviewed a trial lawyer [1] last year and I thought it was
really good. I wasn't aware that the holding days could be extended for each
crime that you "commit." There's an entire scheme to this:

    
    
      3 days - initial detainment
    
      10 days - judge determines whether you can be charged or not
    
      10 days - possible extension.
    

If you commit two crimes, that could be up to 46 days in detainment.

Basically, don't come to Japan and do anything questionable and everything
should be fine. In the unlikely event you're in the wrong place at the wrong
time, you should know how to wield Japanese well to try to get yourself out of
it.

On the other hand, I watched an interaction between a couple of foriegners and
the police one day. They were drinking in the park one day (legal and common)
and the police were called on them for unknown reasons. After the police
arrived, they basically told the police to go away for an hour and refused to
show their resident's card (both also legal). Backups and backups of backups
were called and eventually they dispersed. I think this is a good example of
how there _is_ a lot of restraint with regards to police here. I believe in
most other countries jail would have been imminent out of disrespect.

The thing about Japan is that once you're caught up in the system, it has no
mercy.

1 -
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1ZLGqL1FMo&vl=en](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1ZLGqL1FMo&vl=en)

~~~
jamestnz
Interesting comment.

> I believe in most other countries jail would have been imminent out of
> disrespect.

Is this part accurate? In the (admittedly few) countries where I have spent a
lot of time and have gained any real experience dealing with the police, they
have proven to have a relatively genial and pro-community outlook, aiming more
to help people and prevent harm, rather than browbeating and abusing people.

My impression is that the so-called offence of "contempt of cop" (i.e. being
arrested for being a smart-ass or upsetting a cop's feelings, rather than any
genuine breach of the law or peace) is a bit of a North American phenomenon,
but no doubt my perception is being affected by sampling bias there, having
been exposed to American media etc.

In my (non-American) experience, you must push things _incredibly_ far to get
anything more than a sarcastic laugh or eye-roll or "move along, mate" from a
cop.

~~~
olingern
I come from small town America and NYC, so I'm jaded. There are a lot of good
cops out there who set out with good intentions, but I believe their training
is inadequate. In my experience, they do not act as stewards of a community,
but rather someone with power who is to be feared.

In regards to my comment of "most other countries," I believe 'most' could be
changed to 'many'

~~~
ryanlol
Will training really turn assholes into stewards of a community?

~~~
kekebo
It may alleviate some performance anxiety in a high pressure job with huge
responsibilities, but is up against a range of management decisions like quota
based policing and other systematic factors influencing policing away from
stewardship in a community. Trying to reduce it to a single factor may be
simplistic given the complexity of the problem.

------
fiblye
It's strange how Japan gets so much attention for this. It's about the same in
every country.

According to Wikipedia:

>In Canada, the national conviction rate is about 97%. This does not include
cases in which the charges are dropped, which comprise about one-third of
criminal cases. Absent Quebec, the province with the lowest conviction rate,
the figure is 99%.

If a country has a low conviction rate, it could be because cops are arresting
lots of innocent people. It could be because courts are being bribed and
letting people go. High conviction rates can mean anything from police only
arresting people when they know a person is guilty, to them picking up anyone
off the street and throwing them away without a fair trial. Percentage alone,
generally, isn't something worth looking into.

~~~
stupidcar
Seriously?

The linked audio is only 9 minutes long, and it addresses this exact point.
The Wikipedia figure for Canada is wrong. The straight acquittal rate is ~3%,
but the other 97% are not convictions, only about 60% are.

They also interview a professor who authored a book on the Japanese justice
system who explains why the conviction rate is so high. It turns out we can
answer questions like this _without_ relying on uninformed guesses by HN
commenters. Amazing.

~~~
elfexec
> The Wikipedia figure for Canada is wrong. The straight acquittal rate is
> ~3%, but the other 97% are not convictions, only about 60% are.

The wikipedia article isn't really wrong. Only 60% of the cases go before a
jury. The conviction rate for cases that get to the jury around the 95% rate.

> They also interview a professor who authored a book on the Japanese justice
> system who explains why the conviction rate is so high.

Yes. Pretty much prosecutors only prosecute cases they think they'll win and
have leverage over defendants. The same issue you have in Canada and we have
in the US.

> It turns out we can answer questions like this without relying on uninformed
> guesses by HN commenters.

Too bad you didn't choose bother to answer any of the questions.

~~~
himinlomax
> The wikipedia article isn't really wrong. Only 60% of the cases go before a
> jury. The conviction rate for cases that get to the jury around the 95%
> rate.

You'd have a point if the stat about Japan was about the conviction rate of
people who go before a jury, but unless I'm mistaken, the conviction rate
we're talking about is that of people _charged_ overall.

That 60% figure in Canada is precisely referring to people who were charged,
and whose charges were later dropped. Over 99.4% of people charged in Japan
are eventually convicted.

Consider what it means to be charged. This allows for example the police to
gather more information by doing what would otherwise infringe on someone's
rights. So when you basically never drop charges, that means that either you
infringe on people's privacy before they're charged, or you routinely
disregard whatever exculpatory evidence you find. Either way, it's obviously
bad.

~~~
emn13
It is certainly the case that "being charged" does not mean exactly the same
thing in every country; the weight isn't the same everywhere, and the details
differ too. So I suppose it's also conceivable that the japanese police can
collect enough evidence without formal charges that the innocent go free
there.

And of course - nobody is entirely innocent. Knowing that once charged you're
almost certainly going to be convicted, perhaps suspects cooperate more in
hope for leniency.

I mean, I doubt law enforcement are angels in japan, but I can imagine fairly
benign factors contributing too.

Frankly - give how pervasive such high numbers are across much of the world,
I'd say the argument for the efficacy of a confrontational legal system is
undermined; clearly it's not working ideally.

------
thaumasiotes
Note that the US conviction rate is similar. See e.g.
[https://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/23/us/stronger-hand-for-
judg...](https://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/23/us/stronger-hand-for-judges-after-
rulings-on-plea-deals.html)

> [In 2009,] 97 percent of federal cases and 94 percent of state cases end in
> plea bargains, with defendants pleading guilty in exchange for a lesser
> sentence.

~~~
matsemann
I wonder how many innocent plead guilty in a plea bargain, just because they
don't have the resources to fight the charges. Quite perverse incentives.

~~~
vanniv
Very many.

Jury trials are _expensive as fuck_ , and you don't get a penny of it back if
you win.

The most common offenses charged are less-serious things like DUI, where first
offenders are likely to receive penalties like a fine, maybe a very short
community service, and probation.

If you go to trial, you always might lose, and you _will_ pay $50k of legal
fees.

If the prosecutor offers you a $10k fine, what're you going to do?

Even if you could raise the $50k -- of you go to trial and lose (which is
always possible), you are likely to get close to the maximum penalty for
having fought.

------
eliaspro
There was also a recent "Rare Earth" episode about this: "Why Every Japanese
Criminal is Guilty" \-
[https://youtu.be/IRn4xzaugbk](https://youtu.be/IRn4xzaugbk)

------
idoubtit
From the BBC audio, about Canada:

> In 2017-2018, 3.6 % of criminal cases in adult courts led to acquittal, but
> 62 % led in a guilty decision, and 1/3 were withdrawn or subject to a crown
> stay.

To be fair in their comparison, they should have mention withdrawals in the
Japanese courts. In 2016, 62.4% of the criminal charges were withdrawn[^1].

So, comparing the conviction rate on the initial charges (meaning that
withdrawal of charges in taken into account):

Canada: 62% of the initial charges led to a conviction

Japan: 38%

Comparing the conviction rate excluding withdrawal:

Canada: 95% (62 out of 65.6)

Japan: 99%

As noted in the BBC audio and pointed in the article, Japan's system is
unfair, but I think the rest of the comparison in the audio was biased.

[^1]: [https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-topics/c05401/order-in-
the-c...](https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-topics/c05401/order-in-the-court-
explaining-japan’s-99-9-conviction-rate.html)

[edit: messed up the 62% of Canada]

------
kstenerud
The biggest problem is their coercive and brutal interrogation tactics, which
result in false confessions.

There was a story a number of years ago about a cyber criminal who hacked
victims computers to commit crimes, and then taunted the police about it after
they forced false confessions from the hapless owners.

[https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-20810572](https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-20810572)

------
torgian
I find this interesting because a former coworker was in jail for about ten
days. He was released due to no charges being pressed. Thing is, he’s a
foreigner, and he hasn’t said anything about how he was treated.

Afaik he’s still in the country looking for work. So maybe it’s different for
foreigners ( I wouldn’t he surprised if that’s the case )

------
totalZero
I wonder if there are PR firms that have been hired by high-profile
individuals to disparage the Japanese justice system.

~~~
Danieru
Indeed, perhaps individuals with large volumes of undeclared earnings one
might wonder.

------
Merrill
The conviction rate in criminal trials should be high, perhaps 90% or higher.

A low conviction rate implies that a lot of shaky cases with poor evidence are
being brought. This exposes innocent people to the inconvenience and expense
of mounting a defense and to the possibility of a false conviction.

------
mellosouls
This is a BBC programme so should probably link to the BBC page:

[https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p080pgdy](https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p080pgdy)

~~~
lifeisstillgood
Thanks - but getting that original link is harder in my apple podcast app. at
least with only one thumb free...

------
narrator
India, on the other hand, has a low conviction rate:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conviction_rate#India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conviction_rate#India)

"The national conviction rate in India for offences of the Indian Penal Code
is around 46%. This tends to vary state by state. The state with the highest
conviction rate is Kerala, at about 84%, while the one with the lowest rate is
Bihar, at around 10%."

------
selfishgene
Suspiciously high conviction rate in light of this:

[https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/asia-pacific/japan-
s-c...](https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/asia-pacific/japan-s-crime-
problem-too-many-police-not-enough-criminals-1.3451997)

------
MrDrDr
Interesting programme. I guess the policy of a country - and it’s conviction
rate - needs to balance the risk of innocent people jailed against the guilty
walking free. I presume different countries legislate according to which they
find more acceptable.

------
exdsq
I can't listen to this right now but am really interested about the title.
Could you tldr the reason why the conviction rate is 99% in Japan?

~~~
kstenerud
They only prosecute cases they think they can win, and then they beat and
torture and sleep deprive a confession out of the suspect. If he doesn't
confess, they keep him in jail for months of more torture and then convict him
anyway. You generally only get out not-guilty if you pay a LOT of money to
your lawyer, and even then it's a crap shoot. Also, you'll be unemployable
regardless of the outcome, but it'll be much worse in society if you didn't
confess, because now you're guilty and unpenitent.

Of course it's much more complex in reality, but that's the gist.

~~~
claudiawerner
>and then they beat and torture and sleep deprive a confession out of the
suspect

Horrible, and seemingly unconstitutional:

"No person shall be compelled to testify against himself. Confession made
under compulsion, torture or threat, or after prolonged arrest or detention
shall not be admitted in evidence. No person shall be convicted or punished in
cases where the only proof against him is his own confession."[0]

[0] Article 38 of the Japanese Constitution:
[https://japan.kantei.go.jp/constitution_and_government_of_ja...](https://japan.kantei.go.jp/constitution_and_government_of_japan/constitution_e.html)

------
tus88
Always funny watching the UK - where it was described that perverting the
course of justice is an instrument of public policy - criticizing other
countries legal systems. And bear in mind the UKs 80% (?) conviction rate
occurs with a DPP that likes to "engage with risk". Whatever that means.

~~~
mellosouls
This is an extremely good programme that deserves more credit than sensitivity
of that sort.

It's whole point is to delve _neutrally_ into the numbers put out by different
organisations to evaluate and explain the claims.

Given that scrutiny of UK organisations is the norm for it, and that a 99%
conviction rate is a headline figure that would more normally be associated
with somewhere like North Korea and which begs explanation, it's difficult to
see what the problem is here?

~~~
tus88
I'm pretty sure scrutiny of the UK system is down to about the Daily Mail and
not much else. The BBC is more likely to criticize such scrutiny than engage
in it itself.

And you make a lot of assumptions. 99% could mean a terrible system, or one
where only solid cases are pursued. 80% could mean a robust trial system, or
lots of shoddy cases pursued by a risk taking, politicized prosecution system.

~~~
mellosouls
If the 99% figure has merit, that is what the programme is intended to
uncover.

Your point about the Daily Mail is lost on me - perhaps you could point to an
alternative podcast on statistics that does a less biased job, so I can see
the same nationalist perspective as you are seeing, and understand the value
of your objection?

~~~
GordonS
If you're not from the UK, you won't have heard of the Daily Mail - it's a
tabloid rag, known for spewing hate, xenophobia (often borderline racism), and
outrage, pandering to people's insecurities and using them to whip them up
into a frenzy. I find it to be a destructive force in the UK.

I find the notion that it has resulted in anything positive _at all_ in the
UK, to be quite ludicrous.

