
Poaching Tesla - mercutio2
https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2018/9/6/poaching-tesla
======
AnthonyMouse
There are some errors here:

> The dramatic shift to SUVs in the U.S. is driven by consumers caring less
> about traditional car value metrics such as performance.

The cause of this was exactly the opposite -- the CAFE rules classify SUVs as
trucks and allow them to fall into a less stringent fuel economy standard. The
result allows SUVs to be mass-market gasoline-powered large vehicles with
powerful engines, which is no longer possible for things classified as cars.
That factor is primarily what caused (big-engined) SUVs to replace station
wagons and large performace sedans in the market, and the small car market is
as strong as it ever was.

He also calls Ives a visionary more than once, but that was Jobs. Apple has
done well under Ives because of his management ability, not his ability to
develop new product markets as Jobs did.

Project Titan is a huge gamble. They're essentially trying to buy their way
into a market where their competitors have a head start. Apple has the cash to
potentially succeed doing that, but they could also spend billions and have it
come to nothing, and it's not clear what they're adding that Waymo or Telsa or
Uber doesn't already have. It seems to be some combination of "Google is doing
it" and the fact that Steve Jobs saw that Telsa was onto something -- but
there has been ten years of progress between then and now.

And the speculation that Apple will focus on personalization is odd. Their
model is walled-garden, curation, single USB port on the MacBook, everything
soldered and nothing modular, any color you want as long as it's black. If
anything vehicle personalization is going to become _less_ prevalant with
autonomous vehicles as it makes it easier to share vehicles if they can show
up at the location of whichever part-owner needs it at a given time, or be
leased out for ride sharing when not in use.

~~~
takahisah
> Project Titan is a huge gamble.

Titan is not a gamble. It's a hobby. And from the eyes of a Trillion Dollar
Company, it's not even an expensive one.

What's the worst that can happen? They spend a few more years on it, poaching
talent from Tesla and other car companies and from internal teams, and end up
with nothing. Sure, they might spend a few billion in the process, but they
already did that building a spaceship, and spending at that level doesn't hurt
their books at all.

iPhone on the other hand, was a huge gamble at the time. It had the potential
to ruin the company by cannibalizing iPod sales, diluting the brand, and
destroying morale of top engineers who were at the time the "best" employees
they had.

What's the best thing that can happen? They launch the equivalent of an iPhone
in the auto industry, figure out how to scale, and change the way people go
from point a to b. They are recognized as the company that pulled off
something Tesla couldn't, and Tim Cook / Jony Ives get to put their names on a
revolutionary product that changed the world again.

So it's a low risk high return situation for them to work on it. Can they pull
it off? I would say much more likely than "traditional" auto companies but
less likely than Tesla. But again, it doesn't really matter to them (part of
why chances of success are lower), and competition is a good thing. As a
shareholder of TSLA, I don't want to see Elon Musk smoking weed on YouTube
anymore. Somebody please take away his Twitter account too.

~~~
Reedx
> As a shareholder of TSLA, I don't want to see Elon Musk smoking weed on
> YouTube anymore.

Much ado about nothing. One puff when it was offered to him. So what? He was
much more affected by the whiskey, but curiously no one has a problem with
that. He even made it clear that he doesn't use weed because he feels it
affects his productivity. All you're upset about is a nonsensical stigma.

Furthermore, the actual content of the interview was interesting.

Stop trying to turn Elon into a yet another fake CEO.

~~~
confiscate
smoking weed is not the problem

the problem is, he said he doesn't smoke weed because it decreases
productivity, and then smokes weed anyways.

Nothing he said makes sense anymore

~~~
riphay
He took one puff of weed on a casual podcast at ~11 p.m. local time. Not
certain this is the canary in the coal mine some people are making it out to
be... but I guess volatile stocks will find reasons to be volatile?

~~~
pm90
The problem is that most of the people who run the economy and the Government
are still from a generation that views cannabis consumption as dangerous,
anti-establishment drug use not appropriate for people they consider as
"proper". This view has been codified into law by Marijuana ban laws, and as I
realized just today, into banning it from being used by anyone with a security
clearance.

As far as we've come with legalizing marijuana and shifting societies
perception about cannabis, the vestiges of the old order still exist.

~~~
riphay
You're absolutely right; but I have a hard time believing this depresses stock
valuations with so much smart money out there (by ~20% no less!).

Otherwise I think there's a serious market opportunity to be exploited.

~~~
jameskegel
This is not smart money fleeing, it is old money.

Why would all of today’s young engineers, who collectively consume marijuana
and concentrates by the ton, suddenly take issue with one of their foremost
peers partaking in the same activity? It makes more sense that the older
investors who are making a bet on this generation’s promising stallion, in
their eyes, are seeing what is to them, aberrant behavior. Given how often and
well honored the theme of “older generation not progressing with the times”
is, seems much more likely especially when thought in the same context as
Occam’s Assertion.

------
smilekzs
> Even acquisitions that included consumer-facing products like Beats, Beddit,
> and Shazam (pending approval) were ultimately about the technology behind
> the products.

I doubt the Beats acquisition is about the technology behind their headphones,
especially with their questionable acoustics engineering [1]. The music
service sounds more plausible, but then it wouldn't be about technology
either.

[1]: [https://www.designnews.com/gadget-freak/beats-dre-
teardown-w...](https://www.designnews.com/gadget-freak/beats-dre-teardown-
weak-engineering-meets-strong-marketing/113333861745594)

------
Animats
Financially, it doesn't make sense. Getting into the car business would pull
down Apple's stock. Apple is in a high-margin business. Autos are a low-margin
business. When a high-margin company buys a low-margin one, the return on
investment declines.

That's the reason Apple can't acquire other large companies. Few companies
have Apple's margins. Most acquisitions would drag them down. Even if they're
profitable.

~~~
IkmoIkmo
In a world where Apple chooses to invest scarce cash in A or B, with B being
low-margin, and then choosing B.

Not in a world where Apple's cash isn't so scarce that it has to choose
either, but can choose both.

The real question is, do investments in the car space get it a better return
than whatever the return they had on their cash, which was likely quite small,
too, and with no upside.

~~~
deafcalculus
Apple can always use that cash to buy back its stock. Spending it on Tesla has
to get better returns than buying back itself for it to be worthwhile.

------
bodas
> This lack of fresh perspective in automobile design is one factor likely
> fueling the growing interest in bikes and scooters in high density areas

Cars suffer from a tragedy of the commons, even if you have the best Apple
iCar in the world with self-driving, you will still get stuck in traffic
because of all the people who don't.

If Apple wants to improve the experience of cars they need to start a
political party because that is a local governance problem not a design
problem.

------
nutjob2
Why do people insist on using the word "poach" when referring to people who
were offered and accepted a new and usually better job or pay by a competing
firm? It gives a negative connotation to a happy event for someone.

~~~
taneq
You answered your own question. It's used to recast the employee as property
of their employer, and the act of offering them another job as dishonourable.

~~~
granshaw
The deck is already so stacked against workers - we shouldn’t be perpetuating
these terms

------
mulcahey
Once cars are shared and autonomous they're going to be like riding a private
bus, plane or train (or an Uber without a driver). You'll be staring at your
phone/laptop/iPad for the whole ride and will not be personalizing anything
but the sound playing over the speakers.

An Apple Care would be as if Apple wanted to get into the house market.
HomeKit+devices, Apple TV, HomePod etc. are analogous to what Apple could
achieve in the car space. I can't see them releasing anything better than a
fully autonomous Tesla that allows you to AirPlay to the center screen.

It almost saddens me to see them poaching talent from Tesla when Tesla has so
much momentum right now. I don't see Apple achieving anything Tesla won't in
the long term. Instead, they're just going to delay how long it takes Tesla to
get there.

------
newnewpdro
> Even acquisitions that included consumer-facing products like Beats, Beddit,
> and Shazam (pending approval) were ultimately about the technology behind
> the products.

Err, _Beats_? Their technology was shit, Apple bought a millenial brand.

~~~
squarefoot
Yup. I wouldn't give up my three K141s for a truck loaded with Beats phones,
but try asking to any teen out there.

~~~
dogma1138
I remember someone tearing down fake beats and finding more expensive drivers
in them than in the original thing beats are garbage.

------
0x8BADF00D
I have a feeling that:

a) Elon is having a mental breakdown

b) Titan will die because of design by committee

~~~
briandear
Nothing is designed by committee at Apple. That isn’t how they work.

~~~
MBCook
Which, ironically, seems to be one of the big issues now with many of their
products. Division going into them seems to be a little _too_ singular.

------
giacaglia
Apple entering the space would benefit consumers, but if Apple can't deliver a
simple power mat (Airpower), it is hard to believe that they would be able to
develop a car. Doug Field left Tesla probably because he couldn't scale the
manufacturing plant for them. Apple doesn't build the hardware themselves but
hires third-parties to do it, like Foxconn. It would be hard to imagine a
company designing cars and letting third-parties build for them

~~~
Rinzler89
Actually, it's more common than you think for a major brand to design a car
and outsource the building to a third party or even to outsource the whole
design and development of a model entirely.

For example, Magna Steyr builds the E-Pace for Jaguar, the Countryman for Mini
and the G-Wagon for Daimler in Graz, Austria. It also developed several cars
on behalf of manufacturers such as the Audi TT, Fiat Bravo and Peugeot RCZ[1].

There were even rumors in Graz that execs from Cupertino have flown here to
discuss the possibility of Magna building a car for Apple.

[1][https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magna_Steyr](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magna_Steyr)

~~~
dingdongding
Apple won't outsource its products design to someone else. That's not Apple

~~~
cmelbye
The comment you’re replying to doesn’t say anything about outsourcing design.

------
beloch
Performance... Style... Price...

 _Reliability_.

Reliability is not just a part of performance. When it comes to cars,
reliability is its own category and it's every bit as important as the others.
How many cars are great performers but are rendered impractical by their lack
of reliability? For many people, reliability trumps all other considerations.
Personally, I'll pay extra and put up with a slower, clunkier vehicle if _just
works_.

Apple no longer produces particularly reliable software or hardware. Tesla is
having problems doing that themselves. The marriage of the two? It would take
a _lot_ to make me trust a vehicle made by these two companies in partnership.

If anything, Apple needs to acquire or partner with a proven auto company with
a track-record of producing reliable designs. Quite frankly, Tesla would
benefit from doing the same. Their vehicles are exciting in terms of their
performance, but the reliability just isn't there yet.

~~~
stephengillie
> * Personally, I'll pay extra and put up with a slower, clunkier vehicle if
> just works.*

Toyota Camry is the car with the track record for reliability.

------
Camillo
I don't understand what they mean when they say that "personalization" is the
most important thing for customers when buying cars.

------
skookumchuck
I never thought I'd miss station wagons. Even classic car collectors/restorers
avoid them.

------
madengr
Apple has run out of steam. What do we have to look forward too; the iPhone
20?

~~~
daeken
A trillion dollar market cap can support the production of a hell of a lot of
steam.

I can't stand Apple's products of the last ~7 years, but I wouldn't bet
against them in nearly any regard. They have the resources to weather any
storm.

~~~
madengr
I should have said innovation. At this point they are more like a utility
company.

~~~
zaroth
I’m not sure if you’re trolling. Have a scroll through this article and say
that again;

[https://www.bloomberg.com/features/apple-iphone-
guts/](https://www.bloomberg.com/features/apple-iphone-guts/)

There’s certainly a dearth of groundbreaking category defining new products,
but you have to be blind to what is actually going into the intervals of each
successive iPhone model to claim there’s no _innovation_ happening.

Personally I think the level of expertise, technology, and craftsmanship which
has gone into the iPhone line is astounding. They have absolutely mastered the
form factor to the point where you take it completely for granted.

~~~
jimmaswell
Who could ignore such innovation as the removal of the headphone jack?

~~~
zaroth
I’ve missed it on occasion, but once I added a Bluetooth adaptor [1] to my old
QC15s I haven’t given it a second thought. And now my QC15s also pair to the
Apple TV which is great for watching late night Netflix while the family is
sleeping.

But my point isn’t at all that you have to agree with every outward design
decision. My point is that the _internals_ reveal an incredible amount of
engineering prowess of their own right. The stacked circuit boards in the X,
along with the FaceID suite of sensors, and I’m particularly fond of how well
it all integrates with the secure element, for example.

Also have to mention the camera — the “portrait” mode pictures are so
beautiful and _easy_ — all my favorite photos were shot on iPhone while my EOS
collects dust.

Edit: I should add — it was removing the _Home_ button which actually is my
favorite part of the X. I love swiping all around the phone and not having
that clunky button to click, or worse, double click.

[1] -
[https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0786VF6PS/](https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0786VF6PS/)

~~~
MBCook
AirPods are an amazing feat of technology. Incredibly tiny, easy to use, and
they sound great. They almost never cut out for me (a problem many Bluetooth
devices are supposed to have).

There was nothing close to them on the market when they came out. You either
had to have terrible battery life, much larger headphones, or pay a TON more
money.

I’m with you on the camera. If Apple made a camera I’d buy it in a heartbeat.
The responsiveness and quality they can get out of that ridiculously tiny
sensor is extremely impressive. Imagine what they could do with an APS-C or
Micro 4/3s.

You already mentioned some of their other amazing tech like Face ID. The role
they’ve been on with the A-series chips since they started taking the designs
in house has also been pretty incredible.

~~~
zaroth
If only they stayed in my ear!

I bought these [1] which lock them in perfectly but defeats their ease-of-use
because you have to remove them to fit them back in the charger-case of
course.

Some people have had luck with hole-punch sized waterproof tape [2] which I
haven’t tried but has the advantage of not interfering with the case.

[1] -
[https://www.amazon.com/dp/B019BREFE4](https://www.amazon.com/dp/B019BREFE4)

[2] - [https://lifehacker.com/keep-your-airpods-in-your-ears-
with-t...](https://lifehacker.com/keep-your-airpods-in-your-ears-with-this-
hack-1821187020)

~~~
specialist
I despaired over which bluetooth earbuds to buy. I don't like either the
Jaybird or Beats form factor. And especially not the Airpod/Earpod style.

I greatly prefer the Shure line (style) of earbuds. The shape works great for
my ears. But I had grown weary of the tethered cable. (And the jack is going
away.)

It took me way too long to figure out the MMCX connector allows me to mix &
match.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMCX_connector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMCX_connector)

There's a few different styles and mfg of bluetooth audio cables. And of
course a zillion earbuds.

Here's the low-end Shure SE215 [http://a.co/d/39g7Mbr](http://a.co/d/39g7Mbr)

Here's one of the cheapo ($20) cables I bought Luxray
[http://a.co/d/8ux9eg7](http://a.co/d/8ux9eg7)

The Luxray is meh, okay. Fantastic for $20. But I'd like something more
modern, full featured.

A generic MMCX & bluetooth & codec base cable would be a great kickstarter
project. I'd happily pay $200 for something that was robust, (firmware)
upgradeable.

I envision the same base electronics available in different form factors, eg
Jaybird-style necklace, Bose-style neck horseshoe, lanyard-style dangly thing.

When comparing bluetooth cables, be mindful of the codecs supported. The
cheapos I bought support AAC, allegedly best (preferred) for my Apple gear.
I've read that aptX (and later) is best for Android.

------
jacques_chester
> _Accordingly, some have concluded that Apple should acquire Tesla as a way
> of quickly jumping into the transportation industry._

I produce salty remarks. McDonald's produces salty food. Therefore McDonald's
should buy me out as a way of quickly jumping into the HN snark industry.

~~~
Phlarp
To be fair, if McDonald's did want to move into the HN snark space, buying out
existing contributors would be an effective way to go about doing it.

~~~
jacques_chester
I will stand by for the screenshot of my smiling mug on _Our Incredible
Journey_.

------
mothsonasloth
I have been given a job offer with a car company to work in their research
division in which they plan to develop more electric vehicles to take on
Tesla.

I am still on the fence but the job sounds interesting, its just that its a
big corporate and I am skeptical they will be able to take on Tesla's monopoly
on electric vehicles.

~~~
tomjakubowski
In January, Nissan passed the 300,000 unit mark for deliveries of the Leaf
worldwide. Tesla reached 300,000 deliveries across all models a month later.
No one has a monopoly on electric vehicles.

~~~
mothsonasloth
Ok I think I'll take the job then

~~~
user5994461
You should go for it. Don't bother to think about Tesla, it's a small company
that doesn't even have a presence outside the US. They just enjoy nice news
because the David vs Goliath archetype sells in media.

Any major manufacturer can roll out an equivalent car globally anytime and get
in front of a Tesla in a heartbeat. I bet your new company will give you
anything you need to do just that.

