

Golfers More Likely To Make Par Putt than Birdie Putt of Same Length - lukas
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/16/sports/golf/16study.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=putting%20risk%20aversion&st=cse

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bkbleikamp
I golf a lot, and this seems like A "No kidding..." type of statement to me.

Birdie putts are less common, even for great golfers, and so when it comes up
everyone tends to put a little bit more pressure on themselves, consciously or
unconsciously, to capitalize on the birdie putt.

Even when you have a short one (less than 5 feet) you friends will say "Oh,
don't miss..." etc.

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johnnybgoode
The point of the article is that great golfers are OK with _not_ capitalizing
on the birdie putt, but a bogey is to be avoided.

Edit: Apparently I should clarify. The golfers are putting more pressure on
themselves to make par and avoid a bogey score. On the putt for birdie, they
are not putting too much pressure on themselves; instead they are OK with
settling for a par score so they take shots that aren't as risky. In other
words, it's more important to them to avoid a bogey score than it is to
capitalize on the birdie putt.

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something
you want to avoid a bogey because it starts a vicious cycle. assuming you are
at par, a bogey requires a birdie just to get back to par. going for that
birdie risks another bogie that would require another birdie to balance, and
so on. playing in this highly volatile manner you run a higher risk of having
to make great shots in order to end up with an average score. it's more in
your favor to wait until you make a great shot (say a great second shot on a
par 4 that leaves you two feet from the hole) and then capitalize on the
"free" consequence (the two foot birdie putt) that actually takes you above
average than to be forced to sink a 50 foot birdie just to stay at average
(because you missed par on the previous hole).

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mattmaroon
Maybe I don't understand because I'm bad at golf and don't get a whole lot of
birdie putts, but when I do I always go for it because getting a birdie is
great, and getting a bogie is pretty average for me. I've never once just
hoped to get it close, even for an eagle.

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johnnybgoode
I think this can be explained by the different level of competition. It sounds
like you're a more casual player, at least when compared to the players
mentioned in the article.

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johnnybgoode
This article shows a tendency among many of today's economists to make the
mistake of thinking they know it all. For all they know, there is some hidden
benefit to avoiding bogeys and settling for pars. Maybe even one bogey would
hurt your morale far more than a birdie would help it, especially if you're a
great player. Maybe there isn't an easy way to avoid that effect, and it
affects how well you play. Who knows? That could easily serve as a rational
justification for this behavior. But most economists have bought in to the
idea that they know exactly what is rational and what isn't.

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jerf
Are you getting this from economists, or news article about economists? The
entire foundation of economics is variable preferences, after all. (Well, the
sensible, measurable bits, anyhow.)

It's still an observed difference between what the human claims to value and
what their actions say they actually value, and that's still a worthy topic of
study.

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johnnybgoode
_Are you getting this from economists, or news article about economists?_

Both. It's tempting to gloss over uncertainties sometimes.

 _The entire foundation of economics is variable preferences, after all.
(Well, the sensible, measurable bits, anyhow.)_

I agree, especially with your parenthetical.

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tophat02
Maybe because they're so excited that they might make birdie on the hole that
they lose their concentration?

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johnnybgoode
If you read the article, this doesn't seem to be the reason. Many golfers
admit that they're more interested in avoiding bogey than making birdie.

