

15 Bitcoin Predictions for 2015 - BTC_sx
http://i.imgur.com/G5SEtEZ.jpg

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blatchcorn
I believe that Bitcoin has just gone through a trough of disillusionment in
2014
[http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/94/Gar...](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/94/Gartner_Hype_Cycle.svg/2000px-
Gartner_Hype_Cycle.svg.png)

From here on we will start to see the benefits of Bitcoin and specific use
cases takehold

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davidgerard
Name three, that aren't illicit goods and money laundering. (As I note in my
other comment, it doesn't actually work out cheaper for remittances in real
life.) So far, I've found nothing it actually does better than conventional
systems.

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Sealy
Some good predictions which paint a bullish 2015 for bitcoin believers. My
money's on 2015 being a year which an industry-wide shakedown will occur. Weak
players as we've started seeing in the mining industry are going to fall by
the wayside to create a much stronger ecosystem.

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davidgerard
* There will continue to be nothing that Bitcoin does better than existing systems, apart from money laundering and purchasing illicit goods.

* No, not remittance. The expensive bit of Western Union is in fact that last mile. [http://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/2ne03g/the_buttcoi...](http://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/2ne03g/the_buttcoin_remittance_challenge/)

* It will remain difficult to turn your Bitcoins into conventional currency (which is the only reason there's such a spread between exchanges).

* It will get even harder to turn your conventional currency into Bitcoins, as any exchange not being run by blatant crooks puts you through the anti-money-laundering mill.

* The protocol problems will continue not to be fixed, unless Mircea Popescu can be convinced to go along with the Bitcoin Foundation. No 20-meg blocks for you!

* 99% of current hash power came online in 2014; this will be very price-sensitive, and much will go offline as the price drops, _maybe_ coming back next hash adjustment.

* Miners will continue to sell their coins immediately to cover costs: we are near equilibrium, where the cost of mining 1 BTC approaches 1 BTC.

* Transaction irreversibility will remain Bitcoin's sticking point, as speculators who are insufficiently computer-savvy keep getting burnt.

* More exchanges will get hacked and/or just take everyone's money.

* Everyone who bought in the last year and held is a bagholder. Their claims and speculation will get increasingly frenzied. Ask for numbers supporting _all_ claims, particularly the ones in this infographic.

* The bagholders and gambling addicts will continue to be taken by obvious scams, _e.g._ the two Ponzi scheme sites in just the last month.

* Altcoins will continue to be _even scammier_ than the Bitcoin ecosphere, boggled as I was to realise this.

* The price is presently being held up by speculation and wishful thinking. No new reason will come along.

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davidgerard
In miners: whoops, there goes CoinTerra! [http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-
mining-firm-cointerra-files-...](http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-mining-firm-
cointerra-files-chapter-7-bankruptcy/) That's chapter 7, by the way, not
chapter 11 - they don't think they even have a business any more, they're
cutting it up for scrap.

Oh yes, and another point for the above list:

* Nobody wants smart contracts. They know that the plot of _Dr. Strangelove_ is literally an unstoppable smart contract going wrong. Real companies want to retain the option of lawyering out of a stupid deal. The only people who would want smart contracts are businesses looking to screw over their customers even more than "mandatory arbitration" clauses do. This is about as appealing to customers as no chargebacks, for the same reason.

