Ask HN: POTUS Donald Trump; What this means to Silicon Valley - larryfole
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hal9000xp
I actually think there is a _possibility_ that it could be _easier_ to get
into US as highly skilled migrant under Trump presidency because of his anti-
immigrant polities.

If he raises a minimum income bar for H1B to 150K and keep the same cap, then
it would be much less qualified applicants for H1B visas and therefore there
would not be cap overflow with annoying lottery process.

Of course, I can't predict what Trump is going to do. He can also reduce cap
significantly (which would be very stupid move).

Let's admit current H1B requirements are stupid. For example, requirement to
have bachelor degree instead of high salary. There are lots and lots very
mediocre developers and almost all of them have degree. On the other hand,
there are pretty strong developers who do not have degree (i.e. smart drop-
outs).

P.S. I like this article:
[http://paulgraham.com/95.html](http://paulgraham.com/95.html)

~~~
wkoszek
You confuse skill with high salary. If you're a part of HN community and work
for a startup with some seed funding, good luck with (a) finding people (b)
paying them $150k.

Not sure how you the want government to evaluate chemical, mechanical,
aerospace etc. engineers. Right now it's formal education, since I think it's
hard to do it objectively otherwise. For software engineers you expected USCIS
will look at our ... GitHub accounts to evaluate it?

H1B as it is OK. Unfortunately big firms figured you can DDoS the application
system and flood it with applications, get some people, underpay them and use
them to replace more expensive and more qualified US people. This is a problem
and it needs to be solved.

Read this article as an example:
[http://www.infoworld.com/article/3004501/h1b/proof-
that-h-1b...](http://www.infoworld.com/article/3004501/h1b/proof-
that-h-1b-visa-abuse-is-rampant-in-tech.html)

~~~
alexmlamb2
I would advocate for using standardized test scores. If you're a smart
dropout, even high school dropout, you could take the tests within just a few
weeks.

Perhaps there does need to be some kind of flexibility for people who are not
native English speakers. For example, a very high math score should be able to
compensate for low verbal scores.

Using degrees seems like the worst possible option, since the standards are so
low these days, and the trend is for the standards to go even lower.

~~~
Can_Not
> standardized test scores

I think H1Bs should only be used for highly skilled specialist roles with a
minimum pay grade like 150k (adjusted for local cost of living). In that
scenario, a standardized test would either be no more useful than measuring by
degree possession, or would not be able to aid the search to employ highly
skilled niche specializations.

I am personally upset because my employer successfully hired an unskilled and
unqualified H1B "masters degree" (who also is not fluent in English) to
perform the duties equivalent to a 3rd year computer science student. Either
this person should have never been hired, or if they should have been hired,
they should have been hired by a better employer. Either we imported a bad
candidate, or we imported a good candidate and squandered his talent for work
we should have hired literally any fresh BS in CS candidate for. Of course, my
employer is happy because he's paying less than fair market value for entry
level work. This has undisputedly displaced a local citizen from work.

What upsets me the most about this is that there is a company willing to pay
to import a 150k+ highly skilled, rare, and valuable candidate and my employer
may have been responsible for blocking that.

------
simple10
That Peter Thiel is really good at picking winners and disruption.

~~~
internaut
Having watched and listened to Thiel for several years now, I came up with a
pet hypothesis I call 'The Wolfian World' that I feel describes what's going
on more accurately than the newspapers.

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12884413](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12884413)

~~~
vectorpush
I am an immense fan of BOTNS, it is perhaps the most cherished novel in my
collection, several years after reading it I still haven't read another novel
that has impacted me in a similar fashion (recommendations are welcome),
however, while I don't object to your analysis of some of the book's themes, I
think your connecting it to current political events is a pretty huge stretch
and really only accurate in a somewhat superficial sense. Still, I can't say
enough good things about that book so have an upvote.

~~~
internaut
My email is in my profile if you or anybody else wanted to talk about BOTNS
and why there's a deep connection between Peter Thiel's ideas and those of
Gene Wolfe.

I don't think it is a coincidence that Wolfe was an engineer during the same
period that Thiel has been scrutinizing. There are many intriguing
connections. The energy crisis in oil, the rejection of nuclear energy (the
New Sun). I fancy I see allegory. Maybe I'm mad but I am fascinated by both
sets of ideas and cannot help seeing a wonderful marriage. ;-)

------
tomdell
Data requests of Silicon Valley companies by the government may increase.

The list of people deemed "suspect" and spied on by the government using
private data may grow and the people spied on may become, on average, browner
and more Muslim.

------
sjm
I'd guess it will be a harder sell to get software developers in Europe,
Australia, NZ, etc. to move to the US.

~~~
Normal_gaussian
Or easier. Hillary is a face of western corruption to much of the world. So
long as Trump delegates the tech stuff properly and doesn't do anything too
unusual the moral choice of the US should be easier.

~~~
janoc
Not true here in France or most of Europe, for that matter.

The only people happy about Trump is ultra-right wing/neo nazi panopticon of
odd figures - Wilders, Le Pen, Farage, Orban ... Really the "crème de la
crème" of Europe. And, of course, Putin.

The rest is worried now - people are seriously questioning what happens, for
example with NATO, after Trump's remarks on not unconditionally supporting the
allies. Is Trump going to divide Europe between himself and Putin, e.g. in
exchange for Syria? Is Putin going to have a free hand to invade Baltics now?
What about Ukraine, Moldavia? Are we going to go back to the Iron Curtain era
where Soviet "borders" were the ones with West Germany? These are serious
issues which you don't feel on the other side of the Atlantic, but for us
living there it is a big deal.

What about business? Trump made some remarks about erecting trade barriers to
protect American markets. So, of course, this concerns us too.

On the other hand, the misogynist, racist, xenophobic BS he was producing
during the last few months is mostly seen as disgusting, but finally mostly
your internal problem. I am sure someone like Merkel is not going to be
personally happy to have to sit next to him at some official function, but
people do respect the result of the election and are professionals. GWB was
not seen as the sharpest tool in the shed in Europe neither but everyone
survived it.

Clinton was seen as a continuation of the US policies, so naturally people
would have preferred her - nobody likes to rock the boat too much when it
comes to foreign policy or business. Trump is seen as unpredictable,
unreadable and incompetent in this regard, unfortunately.

~~~
cs02rm0
Tread carefully; while I suspect most of Europe doesn't care too much about
Trump, the media and rest of the left wing in the UK labelled anyone pro-
Brexit as ultra-right wing / neo Nazi types - they're still being called
uneducated and racist by presenters on TV as I'm typing this.

Then the vote for Brexit won a majority. They're not all scum at the extreme
end of a political spectrum.

If France goes down the same naive, name-calling route Le Pen will surely be
next to capitalise on it.

~~~
padraic7a
The media are not the left.

While individual publications might be exceptions to the rule generally the
media are to the right of centre in Europe.

~~~
throwaway1892
I don't where you get that from, but in France, most of the media are left-
center left, with a few to the right.

~~~
janoc
That's what you get when you generalize over all media and, especially, not
knowing any of them.

European media are on both sides of the aisle, you will find both left and
right leaning ones, including crazy tabloids.

However, what you likely won't find is something like Fox News, with
conspiracy theory pushing nutcases being regulars there.

BTW, this theory about a "media conspiracy" is not new, nor something that
Trump or Putin invented. Lügenpresse ("lying press") is a term widely
popularized by (not invented) and mostly associated with National Socialists
in Germany - in Hitler's Mein Kampf, for example.

Most people parroting this unfortunately don't care - anyone having a
different view has to be a part of some complot or aiding the "enemy" (whoever
that happens to be).

------
anc84
No one can reliably predict what it means.

~~~
idlewords
Oh my god, a sane comment in this thread. God bless you.

~~~
kraftman
Really? I think it's fairly obvious that no one knows what it means, and that
OP is asking for peoples opinions.

------
memossy
I don't think there will be significant negative drag to Silicon Valley as
anti-immigrant policies won't apply to skilled migrants.

Ultimately Trump is a chauvinist and economic with the truth sure, but that
just makes him a New York businessman. He is no ideologue and as long as he
doesn't kick off a trade war things should level out quite quickly as I note
here:

[https://governmentsandmarkets.com/trump-the-morning-after-
th...](https://governmentsandmarkets.com/trump-the-morning-after-the-night-
before-a6c711ae64e9#.ajb1p4y85)

We can also actually expect more support for startups as these are
acknowledged job creators. Where the danger comes is in enforcement of anti-
monopoly statutes for larger companies, although healthcare monopolies are
likely first on the plate.

------
panic
If Obamacare is repealed, I'll have to stop working independently and go back
to a "real" job to be able to afford health insurance.

------
SkyMarshal
With the GOP controlling both Congress and the Presidency, and a luddite
POTUS, encryption, digital privacy, and net neutrality are all in danger.

~~~
dreta
How are these things in danger NOW? Did you sleep through the whole Snowden
incident, and everything Assange published in the past decade? Trump can’t
take away what you don’t already have.

~~~
SkyMarshal
We've certainly lost some of these things, but we're about to lose all the
rest.

------
grandalf
It probably means very little. A president does not really have the power to
make significant change. It happens with collusion from congress and apathy
from the public.

The Silicon Valley outcry about Trump was mostly a social signal intended to
make people seem enlightened -- how enlightened does one really have to be to
be disappointed a presidential candidate makes rude/racist remarks?

~~~
andygates
With the same party wearing all three hats, the chance of change is increased.

~~~
humanrebar
I seriously doubt the republicans and Trump will be on the same page much.
Plus the democrats are slightly stronger in the senate, so the filibuster
should slow many changes down a bit.

------
imh
Complete uninformed speculation: The stock market doesn't seem to like him. If
that continues, the big markets may be less appealing as investments, interest
rates may stay low, and so VC may be a (relatively) more appealing place to
throw money. That would fuel money towards more startups, but it's a wildly
uneducated guess.

~~~
phmagic
I think the market will self correct shortly.

------
jedberg
The only policy position he really made clear that would affect SV was that he
said he would find a way to severely punish Apple for making their devices in
China.

Whether he follows through and has congressional support is to be seen.

~~~
rimantas
No other US company makes anything in China?

~~~
ubertaco
For instance, various Trump brands manufacture heavily in China.

------
dudul
Probably won't be able to hire all those cheap H1Bs (and that's coming from a
former H1B!)

~~~
mikeyouse
Trump loves cheap H1Bs.. Who do you think works on his resorts for minimum
wage?

~~~
WildUtah
Those are H-2Bs.

~~~
mikeyouse
Good point, I should've said he loves cheap H1Bs, who do you think works for
the Trump Modeling agency for minimum wage..

------
manav
I think he will be fine for the H1B and and other skilled immigrant programs.

Lower corporate taxes would be good, but I don't think it will be realistic.
However, some kind of deal for tax repatriation for large multinationals might
be possible. This could bring a lot of money back into the country by the
likes of Apple and others.

Tariffs might have some impact as well depending on the type of company/labor
and source countries affected (China/Mexico).

------
partycoder
I think for the most part, Pence would be the most experienced in the
Trump/Pence duo. I would look into Pence's government style.

~~~
weihaw
Pence is the VP which constitutionally has next to no power (Lookup VP John
Nance) President-elect Trump will be running the executive via his cabinet
appointments. It'll be Governor Christie, who's running the transition and
finding those cabinet appointments, that you should be pinning your hopes on.

~~~
kibibu
Yeee-es, but then would you say Cheney had no power?

------
yurikokoko
Srsly, if you want a highly skilled worker who is paid >$100k in the States,
you got to have them start working here early when they are not that
sophisticated and maybe is paid $70k or so. if I start my career in my home
country I wouldn't give sh*t about working in the States after a few years
when I'm already successful.

------
Jach
Peter Thiel has his ear, predict based on what you would think Thiel would
suggest. My guesses, not that I have a great model of Thiel's mind, are less
regulation but more data collection, probably not much change w.r.t H1B.

------
edblarney
I predict that not that much will change WRT valley issues.

His bombastic statements were populist, I don't see anything on the policy
agenda that seems it will hit the Valley in any meaningful way.

Even if there are some trade-barbs with China ... the Valley doesn't export
much there ...

~~~
willvarfar
American tech manufacturing is outsourced to Asia, right? Will a trade war
with China, for example, impact gadget production and raise costs and lower
demand for the gadgets that the valley produces and profits from? If there are
trade-barbs with China then I would expect that to hit the valley hard.

~~~
tajen
Low factory jobs may come back to US, hopefull with better pay than in China
and selling gadgets at a higher price point, while China starts focussing on
producing for their own population. I look at this quite optimistically, as it
makes end-user price closer to the real cost of production, and it makes
production local which brings the concerns for extremely-poor workers closer
to the consumer.

In other words, no-one cared for Chinese slaving away, but reimporting those
jobs and having Americans factory workers in the same indecent position may
trigger more empathy, or at least more health/education budget is available to
cater for them. Maybe we'll even charge 10x for IoT gadgets (or kid games, or
Ikea lamps), so that workers get a decent situation. It will hit the Valley
hard, but only startups who distribute moderately useful gadgets that rely on
the poverty of the Chinese workforce.

Maybe it will go as far as paying the Macbook price for a PC, but that's ok if
workers get proper working conditions.

~~~
sangnoir
> while China starts focussing on producing for their own population

It's already doing that, which is why US companies are tripping over
themselves as they scramble to get in on the Chinese market

------
id122015
Why would I move to US/Silicon Valley ? Is it because Donald Trump won ? But
what will change about taxes and freedom ?

------
ne0n
Shouldn't we be talking about this shit before the election? It's not like
California had anything to do with Trump, but still.

