

Carmack: Consoles could become a niche - mwilcox
https://www.develop-online.net/news/41038/E3-2012-John-Carmack-Consoles-could-become-a-specialist-niche

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larsberg
I'm somewhat surprised he isn't predicting something closer to a mix of the
OnLive strategy partnered with the last-mile provider (Comcast, AT&T, etc.).
It seems like some way of letting game makers or these services rent space in
data centers on the last mile (ala the datacenters at the CME, NYSE, NASDAQ,
etc.) might make it possible to deal with the fps latency issue and stream to
a fairly dumb client that runs on most console/set-top box platforms.

Certainly, if I were making a 5/10-year bet, that'd be it.

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agumonkey
The video-game idea, to me, is gone anyway. There's a unknown factor that has
disappeared. 80s and 90s machines were all surfing the edge of what could be
possible to render on a screen. And we, as consumers, had almost no idea.
You'd be blown away by 2.5D, transparency, polygons etc etc. The 'shaders' era
put an end to that race, even though the handheld constraints gives new room
to compete. Somehow it's good, it means games will be more about games and not
about making awesome HD-wallpapers-replay-demos; but at the same time I can't
shake the feeling that developpers needed the hardware limitations to fuel
their creativity. And also do people want more realism ? I'm more drawn to
impressionism these days...

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bitwize
Except the gaming equivalent of an audiophile is a PC gamer, constantly
fiddling with his "rig" to get THE most high-quality graphics at THE fastest
framerate he can manage.

Consoles are like Bose Wave Stereos.

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pwthornton
Next year's iPad will most likely be more powerful than the XBOX 360 and PS3
(it already has more ram and supports a higher resolution). That will be a big
deal. As it stands, it already does better graphics than last generation's
consoles. Add in the really high resolution display, and you can see why
console gaming will become more niche.

People have limited money to spend on electronics, and as gaming on consoles
becomes better, more people will play games on them instead of buying
dedicated gaming machines. With technology like AirPlay, consumers can play
tablet games on big TVs.

The same hardware that is in tablets makes its way to phones, which is going
to make portable gaming systems very niche. We may even see phones next year
that can create better looking games than the XBOX 360 and PS3.

Cloud gaming is on the way, and this will further erode consoles. You'll be
able to have a dumb terminal of a TV or set top box that uses servers to
render gaming content. Better looking games will naturally happen as servers
become cheaper and more powerful.

None of this will replace the console gaming experience for those that really
want that experience, but for the more casual audience, it will begin to erode
it. With tablets, AirPlay, cloud gaming, etc. what future does a console like
the Wii have? Phones can even be used as motion controllers with all of their
sensors built in.

There will be a future for XBOX 360 and PS3 style consoles, but I agree that
it will be more niche and that the next generation will last a long time.
Because of this, I hope the next generation of consoles are built to last a
long time.

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bad_user
It's rather interesting that contrary to the popular wisdom around here,
general purpose computers are still preferred over locked-down electronic
appliances. This is precisely the reason why iPads, iPhones and Androids are
probably going to eat into the gaming consoles market.

The biggest problem of PCs is the fast evolution of hardware. When you buy a
game for PS3, you know it will work well on your PS3. And when you buy a PS3,
you know you'll keep finding games for it, even in 3 years from now. And I bet
there are still titles released for PS2. That's the only advantage of console
gaming and is quite a big one.

The fast evolution of mobile devices is actually a disadvantage for the kind
of people that buy gaming consoles in the first place.

However, console gaming has been a niche for quite some time. This is not new.
The exception was Nintendo's Wii, but that was just a fluke.

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mccoyst
I'm really surprised that people think consoles are currently a niche market
for games, after an example like Call of Duty selling 8.4 million copies in
the US in a month, with almost all of the copies on consoles, not PC. And if
ever there was a PC-friendly genre, it's the first-person shooter.

[http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/31995/Exclusive_Black_Ops...](http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/31995/Exclusive_Black_Ops_For_Xbox_360_Sells_Nearly_5_Million_In_US.php)

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stonemetal
_I'm really surprised that people think consoles are currently a niche market
for games_

<http://boardgames.about.com/od/monopolyfaq/f/copies_sold.htm>

According to Hasbro, as of early 2008, more than 250 million copies of
Monopoly have been sold worldwide. (As of early 2003, the estimate was "more
than 200 million copies.") The company estimates that nearly 500 million
people have played Monopoly.

Anyone want to guess how many decks of playing cards, or chess sets have been
sold?

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eavc
There are some very big numbers for the oldest and most classic video games as
well. Take a look at the estimated numbers for Super Mario Brothers. Or the
entire Mario franchise.

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debacle
The console market is already becoming a niche.

They're for social games (like WiiSports) that you play with friends and
family or story-driven games (RPGs, etc) that you don't need a PC to play.

Honestly, I don't know how anyone plays FPS games on consoles. I play Halo 3
with my son now and the controls are infuriating.

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CWIZO
I played many FPS on PCs, and was equally frustrated with my xbox when I first
got it. But once I got used to it, I can really say that playing FPSs with a
controller is better than with a mouse&keyboard.

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debacle
To each his own, I guess. I find a good mouse to be the best aiming tool there
is.

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Cushman
> ...consoles may soon become a niche product for highly dedicated, purist
> consumers.

Isn't that the role that high-end gaming PCs fill now? It sounds like he's
saying game consoles as we know them are just going to go away.

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Dirlewanger
Yeah, Carmack hasn't said the most intelligible things as of the past couple
years. Him and other PC acolytes from the 90s aren't all completely "there"
with their wonky prognostications. He seems to want to marginalize the
console's importance by dropping technology buzzwords into the same sentences
(I mean there is OnLive but that hasn't been too impressive). High-end gaming
on the PC is what is becoming-no, it already is a niche, who am I kidding?

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dfxm12
I tend to agree. My phone & laptop can play games, make calls, browse the web,
stream media and connect me to my friends, regardless of where I am. Why do I
want an expensive hunk of hardware sitting next to my TV (both of which) that
I barely use?

Consoles need to offer something different to stand out. I bought a PS3 to
play a specific game and because it was the cheapest Blu Ray player at the
time. With consoles getting less exclusives & more games I want to play
getting distributed to my phone & computer, I can't say the console really
offers me anything of worth...

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chriskingnet
The current generation of game-consoles have had a long lifecycle as it is.
The Xbox has now been around what, 7 years?

All consoles will definitely begin to become a niche product. I think the more
avid gamers will go back to using their PC. Don't get me wrong, I love using
my iPad.. but not for "serious" gaming. Angry Birds, yes. Halo, no.

I cannot see consoles living forever though, there are already so many ways to
have a "full media experience", which is what the current consoles are trying
to offer to make them a viable part of everyone's living room.

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JVIDEL
It wont for simple economic reasons: if (big IF) consoles really go down in
popularity that means there wont be enough users to justify selling units at a
loss, the main reason why consoles were always cheaper than gaming rigs.

Just look at the history of consoles, there were many models that had small
userbases and thus were a niche. All failed, no exceptions.

Nobody is going to subsidize a console if there aren't enough game sales to
get that investment back.

Similarly if people stopped buying smartphones then carriers would stop
subsidizing them, so iPhones would cost $600 and then who would want one? not
nearly enough people to justify current production levels, and BTW without
those it would be far more than $600 without a subsidy.

Hardcore gamers, "purists", are already using highend gaming rigs that cost
several times more than a console does. But they are a minority and sales
numbers prove it.

If all this happened then consoles would disappear, or morph into something
resembling the Phantom, which BTW failed big time.

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seanalltogether
On the one hand you have the growing trend of kids and teenagers investing
heavily in tablets and smartphones, and would see that as their go to standard
for gaming in the next 10 years.

One the other hand, the concept of the tv and a centralized hub of media and
entertainment continues to persist regardless of emerging technology markets.

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technoslut
I can't help but think that a service like Onlive will play a significant role
in this. People will just use Airplay, Smartglass, etc. to get their game on
the TV.

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Goladus
I think consoles will become niche because networks will eventually get fast
enough so that you see the same dynamic with games that you see with blue-
ray/movies. Instead of players needing to buy expensive, specialized graphics
rendering equipment they can just connect to a service using whatever user-
input/video-playing device they have. Sites like onlive are already trying to
do this (though obviously, they aren't really there yet)

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peeters
I'm not convinced (at least, not for real-time games). Streaming non-
interactive video requires advances in bandwidth. Streaming interactive video
requires near-zero latency if the rendering is done in the cloud. Without it,
there will be a noticeable and frustrating gap between action and feedback.

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Goladus
> Streaming non-interactive video requires advances in bandwidth.

Of course, and also throughput and latency. There is money to be made solving
these problems, though, independent of the gaming industry. Compare the state
of streaming video now to the state it was 5 years ago and 10 years ago.

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cletus
It's clear that the console market is at a turning point.

The Xbox360, PS3 and Wii have all (AFAIK) gone well beyond the lifespans of
their predecessors. It's just taking longer and longer to recoup that
investment.

When they came out they were much better (in price-performance terms) than
their PC equivalents. As expected, this lasts no longer than 6-12 months.

Rumor has it that the next Playstation will be subpar compared tot he PCs of
that time [1] (read the whole thing).

One issue with the PS3/Xbox style gaming is that we're hitting a wall when it
comes to improved graphics. Graphics are getting better but not at a rate that
people tend to care about. The bigger problem is that those improved graphics
come at the cost of content creation (meaning it's more expensive to develop a
"level" with more complex models, higher res textures and so forth). Games are
getting shorter [2].

At the same time mobile gaming is taking off. Tablets (and possibly phones)
are becoming the new consoles. The current iPad has 1GB of RAM and some pretty
impressive graphics (given the form factor). And it's only getting better for
the foreseeable future.

Mobile gaming I think will hurt Nintendo the most and I see a not
insignificant possibility that Nintendo will end up like Sega and just be a
software house. I seem to remember reading something about their investors
questioning them not bringing their valuable franchises to iOS.

[1]:
[http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2012/04/the-x86-playstation-4-...](http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2012/04/the-x86-playstation-4-signals-
a-sea-change-in-the-console-industry/)

[2]: [http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2011/04/the-incredible-
shrinki...](http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2011/04/the-incredible-shrinking-
game-the-truth-of-game-length-in-the-modern-industry/)

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rbn
I don't understand why people compare tablets and phones to console. It's like
you have never played a console game before. Console gaming is about big
screens, epic scenery. people having fun together. xbox is turning into the
living room PC, eventually gaming will be a just feature. They have already
announced IE for xbox. they are going to add more and more live tv options and
apps in the future. It is backed by WP, Windows..ect.

However I'm not sure about Wii and PS. They have no Platform to compete with
Apple TV and Google TV.

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vibrunazo
Put a powerful cpu, gpu and an usb controller and there's no technical
difference between a tablet and a console. Console games have only
historically had different graphics and gameplay because of historical
limitations of mobile hardware. Not because there's anything magically special
about an xbox. You give mobile devices similar hardware and consoles become
dumb pipes.

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rbn
There is no technical difference between a laptop, console, desktop either.
But who would want a tablet that is as thick as a laptop, with fans and 1 hour
battery life. You can't just stick a i7 and quadcore GPU in a tablet. Your
iPad is good for casual games. People are playing lots of casual games but
those games are unrelated to games like COD, Battlefield, Elder Scrolls, GTA,
FIFA, Madden. It's like comparing a TV show to a big blockbuster movie.

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aqme28
The argument people keep making that mobile devices are only for "casual"
gamers does not hold water. While largely true today, there is no reason this
will continue to be the case. Look at the console market and you'll see that
all early games were what anyone would describe as "casual" today.

Let the mobile gaming market mature, and you'll find it filling niches you
hadn't thought possible.

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mtgx
If they want to keep their own mainstream market, consoles will need to keep
innovating, rather than just offer pretty much what a PC/laptop/tablet is
offering, with varying degrees of visual graphics.

