

Norvig's Law - AndyBaker
http://norvig.com/norvigs-law.html

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TorKlingberg
While this law is obvious, it highlights how we are so obsessed with growth.

Everyone has a PC ==> PC is not growing ==> The PC is dying. Everyone runs
Windows ==> Windows isn't growing ==> Windows (and Microsoft) are dying.
Everyone has a Facebook account ==> Facebook cannot grow much more ==>
Facebook is stagnant and no longer interesting.

Maybe this is one reason why Facebook are so eager to buy smaller, growing
social networks like Instagram and Whatsapp: It almost allows them to count
the same users twice or three times.

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slazaro
You know, unless the numbers go down for a while and then they double again.

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cromulent
Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if wristwatches break this law in the future.

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patman81
This reminds me of "Herbert Stein's Law" which he expressed as "If something
cannot go on forever, it will stop".

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mapleoin
So Norvig's Law is a truism?

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sp332
Yes. It's useful for pointing out the fallacy of endless exponential growth.

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coherentpony
The bubble always bursts.

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hcarvalhoalves
I think the analogy would be a bubble that grows but never enough to pop.

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maaku
Unless the size of the market is also doubling.

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coherentpony
Nope. 50% is 50%. It doesn't matter how big the market is, and that's Norvig's
point. Once you penetrate 50% of the market, you're done.

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Joeri
He does admit that you can sell more than one item to the same customer, so
you can have > 100% if you compare units sold to potential customers.

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BenDaglish
Indeed - maybe a corollary should be "in the same colour".

