
Google R&D team's goal: Make renewables cheaper than coal "in a few years" - elbrodeur
http://www.fastcompany.com/1757927/new-google-rd-team-charged-with-making-clean-renewable-energy-work-for-the-market
======
tomelders
This stuff is the reason I'll never hate google the way I hate Microsoft. Ok,
hate is a strong word, but I just don't like or trust microsoft. I think the
world is a worse place because of it. I Think the world is a better place
because of google, but there's still a healthy portion of sceptisim that comes
with that feeling.

The reason I mention this is because right now, it's all about google becoming
the next Microsoft, but I don't think that's fair on google.

~~~
InclinedPlane
I think your hatred of MS is misplaced. The world is almost certainly a better
place because of them. Maybe not as better a place as possible, but certainly
better. The "MS is evil" meme always struck me as an immature response to MS's
imperfections, few companies have done as much to put computing power into the
hands of people, and that has had an amazing impact on the world.

As far as google, they'll lose more and more of the fire from their early days
as they get bigger and older, but they still have a fairly strong ethical core
for any company their size and I think that will help as they age.

~~~
lsd5you
I don't think you are giving enough credit to the companies and services that
never were (because of Microsoft). Infact an uncharitable reading of what
you've written would be that you assume no microsoft means some kind of
industry void.

It is certainly pretty disputable that computing adoption was in anyway
accelerated by the exsistence of Microsoft since they have essentially been
rent collecting and pushing up prices for everyone to join in.

~~~
michaelchisari
_the companies and services that never were_

BeOS. Sweet lord, what BeOS could have been...

~~~
InclinedPlane
BeOS seemed like a very cool experiment but from what I've heard it was sunk
by its own faults, most especially from being nearly impossible to develop
for.

~~~
mburns
Be (the company) offered to give BeOS away for free to any OEM, but none would
touch it... because the contracts with Microsoft at the time meant they had to
pay a Windows license for every _machine_ sold, even if BeOS and (not Windows)
was installed on it.

It wasn't a good time to compete with Microsoft.

~~~
protomyth
That, not the whole Internet Explorer tangent, was the thing that ticked me
off the most. The thought that any money for the Intel box I bought to run
NeXTSTEP went to Microsoft was unbelievable. If the gov had put a stop to that
one practice earlier, it would have been a different game.

------
icefox
Getting solar this summer (live in MA which has very nice tax deals) and one
of the interesting things I noticed in the process was how much of the cost is
the install. Saw one company that is making the install process significantly
cheaper which results in a better win overall than if the cost of the cells
were dropped by half. Same goes with the idea of transparent cells. Even if
they have a very low rating they can go in every window and get installed for
"free" when the new windows are installed making the payback much faster.

~~~
brg
Do you have a breakdown of your own costs? Even in percentiles that would be
interesting.

~~~
icefox
Yah I did a full breakdown and worked out all the numbers* to calculate the
time period till payback (4-6 years) after which there will be some end large
profit from the tail end of the MA SREC's and then small but continuous
"profit" from very little to no electric bill (depending on my AC usage).
After all the work I did my numbers were very close to the quotes I got.

After the immediate state rebase + fed and state tax rebate I am only paying
~3cents/Watt

Any particular number you want to know? Say the system costs 24K, MA does a
straight rebate to the installer so you would only have to write a check for
say 18K, and come next tax year get 6K from the fed and 1K from MA back so the
24K system would cost you ~12K. The SRECS pay that back between 3-7 years and
that is guaranteed $300/MW till 2020 so by doing the install this summer I
should pay it off around 2018 and have extra income until 2020. Oh and it
doesn't count against property tax for 20 or 40 years (forget which).

The main reason I am doing the switch is that it is a small investment that is
_extremely_ stable with 1) a 100% return with interest in ~6 years on the
electricity 2) increasing the value of the house by ~20K (more than post tax
check!) and 3) will continue to generate electricity/tax free income for as
long as I live in the house potentially the equivalent to the initial cost
several times over. Not a bad small investment.

* Electric usage est, electric cost growth est (power costs more every year in MA), sun hours (obtained from various government sites) est, SREC payback est, power est, angle of house and roof.

~~~
brg
Thanks for the detailed response. I'm surprised by how much of the cost is
being deferred by subsidies, but maybe that will pay back in terms of spurring
innovation.

------
6ren
I think Gladwell is wrong. Historically, there have been many cases where
researchers have been unaware of relevant work, because it was done in a
different field. Search could improve there. If search is the quest for
knowledge, then the scope for improvement is unlimited.

Sinking to more consumer-oriented search, anticipating what you want before
you know you want it is another (creepy) way for search to improve, that
Google has specifically talked about.

------
Luyt
The goal is very noble and I'm all for it, but there is this problem that the
sun doesn't always shine and the wind doesn't always blow, and electricity
isn't infinitely transportable, nor easily stored.

~~~
patrickgzill
Someone I know who runs a nonprofit related to helping remote fishing villages
and the like in his Asian country, claims supercapacitors are less than 5
years away.

"If" that is true, then a time-shifting bank of such supercapacitors could
presumably solve the very real issues you raise.

~~~
karamazov
What do remote villages in Asia have to do with supercapacitors?

~~~
patrickgzill
He is someone who works full time in researching alternative energy solutions
for those fishing villages.

Wind or solar solutions that he specifies have to be rugged and easily
maintained without access to fancy tools, and batteries can wear out quickly
in high-temperature environments.

Thus he has been researching supercapacitors.

------
tomjen3
The problem with this is always that they are "a few years away", or that we
can run the entire economy from biofuels "in ten to twenty years".

It has been going on for what, 20 years now? It is never going to change until
we ignore them until they actually bring about their ideas.

~~~
ebiester
Yes, but in the last 30 years, we've went from prohibitively expensive 4.5%
efficency cells in 1954 and $1500/watt in 1955 to a test 500kW installation in
1977 to $9.00 in 2007 to, in an ideal situation, 8.5 cents per KWH today.

<http://inventors.about.com/od/timelines/a/Photovoltaics.htm>
[http://greenecon.net/understanding-the-cost-of-solar-
energy/...](http://greenecon.net/understanding-the-cost-of-solar-
energy/energy_economics.html)
[http://www.reddit.com/r/Frugal/comments/hn7jn/while_were_on_...](http://www.reddit.com/r/Frugal/comments/hn7jn/while_were_on_the_subject_of_solar_power_i_am_a/c1wqx9g)

We could start building a 100% solar/nuclear solution in the US today. The
technology is there, and it would only be the construction time. Our energy
costs would go up, but not significantly. However, if the technology keeps on
this curve, unsubsidized solar will be cheaper than coal soon.

We aren't doing this today because the power companies know that the curve is
coming soon. Why invest prematurely, outside basic research projects?

~~~
danielharan
Upvoted. Same with Wind. Learning curves are bringing costs down below that of
coal and nuclear.

Solar is already in plenty of niches - from highway signage to parking kiosks.
Every niche helps increase production, which reduces price per unit.

This is why I support subsidies - unlike for oil or nuclear, they're actually
working to get costs down.

