
2013: A Bad Year for the Tech Industry - RyanMcGreal
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/12/2013-a-terrible-horrible-no-good-very-bad-year-for-the-tech-industry/282656/?HN
======
yread
I was wondering what was the year like on HN. Here are some top posts from
this year

Aaron Swartz commits suicide (tech.mit.edu)

Heroku's Ugly Secret: The story of how the cloud-king turned its back on Rails
(rapgenius.com)

Breaking down Amazon's mega dropdown (bjk5.com)

XKeyscore: NSA program collects 'nearly everything a user does on the
internet' (theguardian.com)

Google Reader shutting down (googleblog.blogspot.com)

I'm learning to code by building 180 websites in 180 days. Today is day 115
(blog.jenniferdewalt.com)

A spreadsheet in fewer than 30 lines of JavaScript, no library used
(jsfiddle.net)

Bomberman massively multiplayer in HTML5 (bombermine.com)

Tearable Cloth Simulation in JavaScript (codepen.io)

Hello Firefox, this is Chrome calling (blog.chromium.org)

SteamOS (store.steampowered.com)

Amazon Prime Air (amazon.com)

Explain Shell (explainshell.com)

Sprite Lamp (spritelamp.com)

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer to retire within 12 months (microsoft.com)

Ubuntu Edge (indiegogo.com)

FBI raids alleged online drug market Silk Road, arrests owner (reuters.com)

Victory Lap for Ask Patents (joelonsoftware.com)

So, in a summary: some bad things, some good things. JS is getting more and
more powerful, NSA, BTC, lots of SV drama.

I apologize to HNSearch for DOSing them with my query

~~~
pjungwir
> Tearable Cloth Simulation in JavaScript

Not just that, but horrible, no good, and very bad, too.

~~~
pavlov
Tearable, hoarable, no goad, very baed?

------
bdfh42
Or to put it another way - 2013, a year that opened up myrriad opportunities
for disruption.

Mobile device penetration reached a point where we can rely upon the platform
for application distribution.

Wearables continued to look for a compelling app.

Former giants continued to make way for new technologies and companies.

M&A replaced innovation in big companies (great for the rest of us).

Technology leaders continued to be pr$$$s (so whats new?)

Social Media - again achieved platform status - ready to be used, abused and
replaced.

Media (and bitcoin) blah blah

NSA and GCHQ screw up the initial cloud business model and (again) open up new
opportunities.

Pretty good start point for a great 2014 I would say

~~~
Paul_S
Forgive the flippancy but it looks to me you'd see WW III as an opportunity
for entrepreneurial people. Step back and have a look yourself.

~~~
samelawrence
WWII (or any other time of turmoil) _was_ a huge opportunity for some
entrepreneurs, and we needed them to restore order and stability after the
conflict. Obviously there was some profiteering, but I don't see it as
inherently wrong to look at times of trouble as opportunities.

~~~
kristopolous
[http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rothschild_family#The_Napoleo...](http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rothschild_family#The_Napoleonic_Wars)
is my favorite example of this. brilliant at every move - like some chess
grandmaster of business.

------
mathattack
I disagree with all this negativism that is taking over lately. I think that
there are several very positive trends for the tech sector:

1 - Big data is coming age. People are becoming more realistic about what it
means, Data Science is becoming a profession, and the hype is being replaced
by results.

2 - It has gotten even easier to learn how to program. Udacity, Coursera and
StackExchange continue to improve. The resources available for the resourceful
have multiplied.

3 - The IPO market is back. Facebook's investors no longer feel burned.
Twitter's investors and employees are doing great. The better the IPO market,
the more money that gets recycled into technology.

4 - We are aware of the privacy beast. Some view this as terrible. Awareness
is actually the first path to fixing the problem.

5 - SF may be seeing hostility towards tech firms, but the tech scene is
thriving and being welcomed with open arms in NYC, Austin, Boston, and perhaps
even Tokyo.

6 - It's been a good year for gay marriage, which is the defining civil
liberties battle of the day.

7 - Computer Science is a trendy major. Stanford undergrads flock to it.
Harvard's cs50 competes with intro to economics as the most popular major.
Every that this occurs, our technological capability as a society increases.

Yes, there are a lot of reasons for 2013 to have been crappy, but I'm
optimistic about 2014.

~~~
saraid216
It's entirely unfair to put #6 on that list.

~~~
yurylifshits
Here is the logic behind #6 being in the list:

Many attractive markets are heavily regulated. Just ask Uber. Think of
customs, law enforcement, transportation, education, finance, health. So far,
tech industry is doing great in unregulated industries and has a lot of tough
barriers in government controlled areas.

Any step towards more liberties is a sign that new previously regulated
markets can open up for innovation.

~~~
saraid216
That's not an argument that it is good for the tech industry. That's an
argument that it is good for everyone-everywhere.

You may as well claim that the Emancipation Proclamation was good for the
timber industry.

------
Zigurd
The article's author is stretching to be cranky. Does anyone think wearables
have been figured out? They might someday disappoint, but the author doesn't
understand, or is being deliberately obtuse about why Samsung would ship a
bulky, half-baked watch.

Similarly, bitcoin seems hardly overhyped. Not since you had to install a
third-party TCP stack in Windows in order to get on the Internet have I seen
so many people be so motivated to overcome so much complexity to get something
they want.

~~~
MartinCron
_Not since you had to install a third-party TCP stack in Windows in order to
get on the Internet have I seen so many people be so motivated to overcome so
much complexity to get something they want._

Not that I personally remember the 19th century, but I still see artifacts of
people being very motivated to overcome the complexity of mining for gold in
the Yukon.

~~~
Zigurd
What can I say? Cliff Stoll is still making a living as a futurist.

------
electrichead
In terms of introducing new mind blowing things, I agree that 2013 was not
good at all (the new consoles deserve a special mention for completely failing
to generated any enthusiasm at all) I also think though, that it was an
incredible year for bridging a gap - specifically, the number of people
becoming _comfortable_ with using technology in their daily lives, and much
more common than 2012. The sheer number of gadgets I see on a daily basis on
my commute is unbelievable and very exciting. I think we have finally jumped
over a hump where even grandparents have at least one decent device (ipads
seem to be the most common). The coming years will only be more exciting
because of the legwork done by this year.

------
lmm
If smartphones are maturing and being commoditized that's a good thing. I no
longer upgrade my PC every 18 months; I'd quite like to stop doing that with
my phone too.

------
swalsh
2013 is the eye of the storm.

Mobile phones stagnated - Mobile phones now have desktop class processors in
them. The line between phone, and laptop is becoming simply a matter of form
factor. Something big might wiggle through, and 2013 is when the technology
got there.

Wearables were a letdown - We finally have the technology, we're just looking
for the right mix of form and application. There's a lot of potential there,
we just haven't found it yet. However the roots have been planted.

Former giants let down - They're learning their place. IBM has no business
making mobile phones, they cater to guys who need to do a lot of database
stuff quickly. Microsoft has no business making consumer products, now that
the line between producer and consumer is very clear. They're good at making a
platform that enabled business customers to quickly develop apps. Apple is
mobile. I have this theory, a company can only do one section of a market
well, or everything poorly. Whatever the result, they have finally embraced
open source tech like HTML 5, Angular JS, bootstrap etc. Microsoft is no
longer holding back the web. With a "sane" platform, we got some more rope to
hang ourselves with.

Social media became profitable - great, now the platform can pay for itself.

The rest is interesting, but not proof of a year of stagnation.

~~~
simonh
Agree completely, there was incremental movement on the outside, but powerful
forces are at work beneath the surface.

The iPhone 5s was widely derided as an incremental product, but it forced
every other smartphone and mobile processor designer in the industry to throw
out their entire technical roadmap for the next few years and start again from
scratch. It also introduced the first consumer application of a biometric
sensor that actually feels like it's part of our future here today.

Google Glass is highly controversial, but setting it's consumer acceptance
issues aside, the potential for the technology in a whole host of
industrial/business applications is stunning. Ditto for commercial drone
technology like that demonstrated by Amazon.

I can understand a non-tech journalist looking at all this and not getting
excited, but for a tech journalist to completely miss the implications of
these developments is just lazy.

------
jokoon
One bright side: kickstarter

I hope it will make people think twice about what is innovation, and how to
market innovation in a healthy fashion. Programmable computers are 95%
invention.

------
theorique
Does anybody really _care_ about smart watches?

I've talked to many friends who are generally delighted about their mobile
phones, and they have minimal interest in smart watches that cost close to a
mobile phone.

I suppose a category disruptor like the iPad could emerge, but I'm not holding
my breath. I think we're getting device fatigue.

(On the other hand, Google Glass and related devices are a bit different, and
may have more applications)

~~~
TillE
I think there's significant potential for a wristband fitness/health device,
like a more advanced Fitbit.

But yeah, anything like the Pebble is probably a dead end; in five years or
so, Glass will have replaced all its functionality and much more for anyone
who already wears eyeglasses.

~~~
uxp
I'm a trained watchmaker from WOSTEP, so you can trust that I know a thing or
two about watches. I picked up a Pebble because of "hot new tech", and
honestly couldn't find a use for it immediately. Only when I decided my normal
watch needed to be serviced did I actually commit to wearing the Pebble full
time for a couple weeks.

Agreed that any knockoff/clone of a Pebble is a dead end. The Pebble is a
great annoyance device. It's fun when I'm working at my computer to see what
order an iMessage from my Wife comes in on. Is it going to be my iPhone, then
Pebble and then my Mac, or the Mac, Pebble then iPhone? It's a fun game, if
you like receiving the same alert on 3 devices within a couple seconds of each
other. Any new product that is any old product with a screen and connecting to
the internet or another device over BTLE is going to be 2014's "It's X, but
social!" from a couple years ago. This includes Glass, since it does
absolutely nothing more than create an extension of your portable notification
device's screen projected up to your eye. It's quite literally "Eyeglasses,
but with a screen connected to the internet!". It doesn't make people more
connected, it makes the wearer disconnected from the world.

~~~
toomuchtodo
I find the pebble excels at not, "Here is your message" but just vibrating
while I'm doing something to alert me that I have received a message.

~~~
georgemcbay
The only way pebble can get external messages is through your smartphone,
which almost certainly has a vibrate option?

------
simondedalus
This article is preposterous sensationalist stupidity.

"Mobile Phones Stagnated" \- backed up not by sales figures or technological
hurdles, but "things aren't innovative enough," ie "I don't like this batch of
smart phones." Bad year for tech... because I don't like profitable, more
powerful smart phones.

"Wearables Were a Letdown" \- more opinions without sales figures, but at
least not as contentious ones.

"Former Giants Continued Their Inglorious Decline" \- a corporate capitalist
struggle between large companies is "a bad year for tech" because some of
those companies are losing the struggle (while others are winning). Mobile
still on the rise (see first reason why the year was bad for tech (???)) with
desktop declining, which is here presented as overall negative for tech
industry... because...?

"M&A Replaced Innovation" \- which is somehow code for "corporate giants did
normal corporate things." Microsoft bought Nokia instead of "innovating."
Think about that. What in the world does the first half of the sentence have
to do with the second? The tech industry is failing because Microsoft didn't
invent a new smart phone, and they bought Nokia? That is a very compelling...
argument.

"The Arrogance of Technology’s Ruling Class Increased" \- and the explanation
is that technology is taking the place of menial labor. Bad year for tech when
_tech continues to be more productive and accomplishes a wider variety of
tasks_. Bad year because _advances are being made_. Re: no jobs, I don't care
what your political or economic ideology is, if you think wealth inequality is
a direct consequence of technological advancement you're a moron. Maybe such
an A -> B is a little simplistic? Maybe not quite up to what should be the
standards of serious journalism (or casual thought!)?

"Social Media Became Profitable, If Not Compelling" \- Unpacked as "neither I
nor anyone else likes social media, but the profits are back up." How does
that work?

"Media Ravenous for Stories Bought Into Techno-Hype" \- by far the most
ruinously idiotic bullet point. The suggestion that covering bitcoin was
"hype" and not legitimate news... the author should be embarrassed. Suggesting
that bitcoin is a phenomenon of sensationalism is a child's idea of how
economic value works. Yes, and we all buy smart phones because we read tech
blogs that sensationalized them.

"The NSA Spying Scandal Put a Chill on the Biggest Technological Shifts of
Coming Years" \- news stories bring surges of interest in cryptography,
interest in tech in general, and shape future implementations of large-scale
tech. Sounds like a Bad Year for the Tech Industry yes?

Printing this trash anywhere outside of "My blog about my feelings" is
irresponsible and embarrassing.

------
thehme
Ok, just started to read the article, and already I am not agreeing with
"Samsung’s update to history’s best-selling Android phone, the Galaxy S
series, delivered on the technical specifications but continued the line’s
“unpleasant, cheap design.”" The Galaxy S series is to me by far better than
the ongoing iPhone look. The only thing keeping me to getting the Galaxy now
is a contract.

~~~
thehme
So, now I read about the "phablets" and the first thing that came to my mind
was the then sleep Palm Pre, which already allowed me to call, take pictures,
and use it a tablet, where I could use my stylus to do many tasks I can hardly
do on the iPhone. "Phablet" is definitely a bad name, I say we call it like
the "Walkie-talkie", a "Walkie-talkie-browsie-typie" device.

~~~
MartinCron
_Walkie-talkie-browsie-typie_

I'm going to respectfully disagree with you on that name. "Phablet" is bad,
but you've gone from bad to worse.

------
vezzy-fnord
_Innovation was replaced by financial engineering, mergers and acquisitions,
and evasion of regulations._

Wait, this is new?

------
socialnerdia
there is NO such thing as a "lost year for tech"

[https://medium.com/p/fe1e46b8c02f](https://medium.com/p/fe1e46b8c02f)

------
michaelochurch
My take on this:
[http://michaelochurch.wordpress.com/2013/12/26/was-2013-a-te...](http://michaelochurch.wordpress.com/2013/12/26/was-2013-a-terrible-
year-for-technology/)

~~~
Dirlewanger
I completely get your attacking the superfluity of the Atlantic article. It's
expected from outlets like them. It's the end of the year. But you don't
exactly give any reasons why this year was special, or whose work right now is
going to come to fruition in 2030, or any other concrete reasons as to why
2013 wasn't, on the whole, an embarrassing year.

~~~
michaelochurch
2013 was an _incredibly_ embarrassing year for the technology industry. And
no, I don't think the positive accomplishments of this year were, on the
whole, special in comparison to those in other years. At least, we won't know
if any were until a long time from now.

My point is that it wasn't a _lost_ year. Done right, technology is about hard
work, year after year, and getting rich slowly. The fact that a few jackasses
made public embarrassments of themselves is mostly irrelevant to the people
doing that work.

Moreover, the embarrassingness of the Valley's 2013 is a _great_ thing for
humanity in the long run, because it might move the technical focus outside of
the Valley and the VC-funded world, and back into places that are more
hospitable to Real Technology.

