

Ask HN: How to measure the size of a market? - cmontgomeryb

I have an idea for a mobile app. I have been learning the Android platform recently, hoping for an idea to come along.<p>Working with a platform such as Android, rather than the web obviously limits the market to owners of Android devices - MUCH smaller than the amount of people with access to a web browser.<p>The market for the core functionality of my idea is huge - I haven't done the research in terms of numbers (that's today's job, I'm doing it now!) but it's on the news often.<p>How do I find out how many people are both in the market for my apps functionality, AND have an Android device (or "have an Android device AND would be willing to pay for an app")? Is there anything other than guesswork from combining the numbers of the 2 markets?
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heyrhett
How Big is Our Market? We searched on Google for the word “glove” and the
words “ice cream” and obtained these results: • Glove: 14,400,000 results •
Ice Cream: 32,60,0000 results How Big Is Our Market? 14,400,000 x 32,60,0000 =
46944,000000000 probable customers What If? If we sold our glove at $9.99...
Profits = $4,689,705,6000,000,000,000,000.00 What if we sold our glove at
$19.99... Profits = two times previous number

~~~
sandipagr
why would you take the product of glove and Ice cream, and not sum? just
asking.

~~~
toppy
should ask Ali G: <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkuOuxRD1Bc>

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willheim
It is virtually impossible to measure the size of the virtual market. The
number of people joining Android on a daily basis is increasing but then along
comes WP7 and that may change the rate of growth. Then you have out of those
people on Android the percent who share an interest in what you are
developing... but the only way to reach those people is by identifying who and
where they are. In-app advertisements and forum postings have been mentioned
but then even only the select few who may be interested in your subject will
click/participate. Yes, you face a virtual impossibility.

In our start-up world you simply cannot predict success on the measuring the
size of the market. It's impossible. Think back to 2007 and tell me: What is
the size of the market for Fart apps? And it will cost $0.99? My guess? Very,
very limited. Huh. Guess I missed the mark on that one. Now, think back to
2005. Tell me, what is the size of the market for people to blog in 140
characters or less? My guess, pretty small. I mean, Facebook can do that.
Oops. Missed that one, too. OK, now that Twitter is HUGE what is the size of
the market for people willing to pay for it? A ha! Studies show near zero.

So the size of the market willing to pay $0.99 for fart apps is far bigger
than that of Twitter. Amazing, eh?

So here's what you do: Go build an MVP, identify some leading influencers who
could be interested in it, beta test it out, and gather feedback. That's all
you really can do.

------
zaidf
Find a site or two dedicated to folks in your market. These are usually
forums/blogs etc. Since you say your core market is big, finding these should
not be an issue.

Buy some ad on those sites that links/shows a poll "Do you own an Android?" or
something to that nature.

That'll give you SOME idea. Also, don't forget that with a hot _and_ new
product like Android, the numbers are changing literally. Translation: don't
depend _too_ much on market size because it may literally change significantly
month to month in Android's case.

~~~
cmontgomeryb
I like the idea generally, and it would probably be the first place I'd look -
communities and such. The problem here is that the market isn't one that has
necessarily _chosen_ to be a part of the market and wouldn't for the most part
be interested in a community/forum/gathering place.

I think a good way to think about what I'm looking at is medication - how many
people are on medication? How many of those own Android devices - this is the
number I'm looking for. People "on medication" aren't a group like "people who
like skiing", and so mostly aren't to be found in online communities.

------
tpryme
A survey won't produce enough sample points to be statistically significant.
You'd get more statistically reliable numbers using Google Keyword Tool. For
example, if you're thinking of making a voip app for the android, GKT shows
9,900 global monthly searches for "voip android," which is a lot lower than
the 3.35M that voip searches get and the 13.6M that android searches get. Both
are big markets, and I can't imagine "guesswork" that would somehow arrive at
10k by combining the 2 market numbers of 3M and 13M. Google Keyword Tool would
be one of the most reliable ways to give you the confidence or warning signs
you need to dive in or avoid implementation.

------
Dylanb
This provides the methodology used to calculate the market size for an iPhone
app: [http://blog.jwegener.com/2009/08/03/million-dollar-iphone-
ap...](http://blog.jwegener.com/2009/08/03/million-dollar-iphone-app-market-
sizing/)

Keep in mind Android fragmentation as well:
<http://blog.tweetdeck.com/android-ecosystem>

~~~
gtani
<http://www.goldenson.com/?p=140>

besides Adwords, twitter ,adWords, goog trends to put numbers on potential
users/buyers/revenue (these are from searching HN on "market size":

<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1454221>

<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1476197>

<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1581008>

------
Ataraxy
Build a super simple web survey that's mobile friendly. Spend a few bucks
advertising on admob as if you were advertising the app. Collect feedback,
gauge interest. Don't forget to collect emails on the last page for those that
complete it.

------
BANSAL
It's nice that the app seems you promising but imho there are thousands of
apps which are just rolling in the sand, no meaning of their development but
on the other hand lots of apps are there developed with really nice idea in
mind, which created their own niche. So imho be assure that the app belongs to
the category that do create its own niche. and as other comments there are
appreciable too.

------
TomK32
Why not ask you friends and colleagues who have an Android phone? Show them a
mockup, what the app will do, ask them for feedback and wether they would pay
$xx for it. Watch them cosely and only count those who are competely into it,
divide that by the total number of people who asked and you have a rough
percentage that you can apply on the number of android users in the U.S or
elsewhere.

------
rkwz
You know that market for this is huge, but not the exact numbers. So, you can
test the waters by releasing the app with basic functionality (as a free
app?). See how the first few customers respond to it, _listen_ to them and
gradually improve your app. You can add some premium features in future and
charge for it.

~~~
cmontgomeryb
Hmm, I would have liked to have an idea of the market size before working too
much - though the size of the market for the core functionality is huge, I
have absolutely no idea about the crossover to those who also own Android
devices - it could be almost nonexistant for all I know.

I will mention that I have found an app on the Market that doesn some of my
idea. There were 4 reviews and 6 ratings. It had 2 stars, and all 4 reviews
were about the UI (which was indeed aweful). I wonder if the fact that there
is only 1 app currently (that I could find) there is no demand ... or it could
be that the demand is just not filled at present.

------
vaksel
i use Google Keyword tool to give me a rough estimate. It's not 100% accurate
since the data is a bit dated, but overall it'll give you a rough idea

