
Angela Merkel estimates 60% to 70% of the German pop. will contract the virus - molmalo
https://www.businessinsider.com/angela-merkel-estimates-coronavirus-will-hit-large-majority-german-population-2020-3
======
JanSt
The estimate is from Prof. Drosten* of the Charité in Berlin, a highly
regarded virologe. His lab developed the first diagnostic corona test. Before
that they also developed the tests for SARS, Zika and MERS.

He also constantly warned to flatten the curve, spreading infection time as
long as possible - preferably over multiple years...

For those speaking german - there is a daily podcast update from Prof. Drosten
[https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLkKON9te6p3OpxqDskVsx...](https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLkKON9te6p3OpxqDskVsxXOmhfW0uPi1H)

*Head of the Institute for Virology at the Charité

~~~
molmalo
> preferably over multiple years...

Reminds me of a tweet I read today:

[https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/123742407086352384...](https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/1237424070863523841)

Even if this outbreak is contained, either because of social policies or
seasonal change, governments should prepare for a new wave next year (and the
southern hemisphere should be preparing for a hit in a few weeks/months).

~~~
DarthGhandi
Exactly what happened with SARS which was contained by the third year and now
no longer occurs

------
hannob
Christian Drosten, who's likely the origin of these numbers, has explained
them a few days ago in a podcast.

The math is incredibly simple. The idea is that right now you have an
estimated transmission rate of 3 people infected by one person. (Of course
this number has high uncertainties and can be changed by better isolating
patients, but let's assume it's roughly correct.) If you want to stop the
transmission this needs to go below one. The major thing that can stop
transmission is immunity from patients that already had the disease (assuming,
which is probably true, that most patients won't get infected twice, even
though it may happen in rare cases).

So getting from 3 to 1 means 2/3 of the population need to be immune.

~~~
gentleman11
The Spanish flu “only” infected about 1/4 or 1/3 of people. Why the higher
number for Covid?

~~~
oever
Probably because people travel much more now.

~~~
sauwan
The spanish flu happened during the first world war when many soldiers were
traveling significantly.

------
molmalo
Also, it seems that Germany and France are currently 7 or 8 days behind Italy,
when plotting the diagnosed cases...

[https://mobile.twitter.com/henrikenderlein/status/1236748772...](https://mobile.twitter.com/henrikenderlein/status/1236748772455170049)

(Several plots in the thread)

------
charlieflowers
Honest question -- I am trying to see how she and others arrive at these
numbers. (Believe me, I'm not a burying my head in the sand ... quite the
opposite. I'm very concerned.)

Italy has 8,500 who are still sick. And yet, reports are that their medical
system (which is good) is completely overwhelmed, to the point where treatable
elderly are not even diagnosed [1].

Yet the numbers indicate they have about 3 hospital beds per 1000, or 186,000
beds, which are normally 80% full. So that means, 37,000 beds available.

So, 8,500 cases (not all of whom are in the hospital) should not overwhelm
37,000 beds, right?

Perhaps the number of _doctors and nurses_ are overwhelmed? Anybody know where
to get reliable stats on that?

Anybody see what I'm missing? Or do you think I've gotten incorrect info?

I'm trying to arrive at a rational prediction of how bad things could be in
the US, and how soon.

[1]
[https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/123714289107769753...](https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538)

~~~
semi-extrinsic
Yeah, it's not the total number of hospital beds, it's the number of intensive
care hosptal beds with associated equipment like ventilators and intubation
equipment, chest x-ray capacity, and the number of doctors and nurses familiar
with that type of equipment.

In my country we have ~12 000 hospital beds total, but only ~400 intensive
care beds. Reportedly our capacity for immediately stretching that number is
that we can muster ~1 200 intensive care beds. If the need goes beyond that
(and everyone is seriously hoping it will not) then we will be overwhelmed
like Italy.

~~~
hcknwscommenter
Not only that, but these intensive care beds need to be isolated. Ever been to
an ICU? Isolation is not a thing. We can't just go in and tape a bunch of
plastic drapes to the walls/ceilings/floors and make these ICU beds isolated.
400 ICU beds is to a first approximation zero isolated ICU beds.

~~~
Engineering-MD
Well theatres can be used instead which will allow for isolation. In reality
the main HDU or ITU will become covid zone and theatres used for non Covid
admissions.

------
Barrin92
Seems to be a prediction at the dramatic end in particular if the quick
lockdowns and quarantines are kept up. As China has shown it's very possible
to bring the numbers down.

Either way though even if it turns out to be a too high a prediction at least
she speaks plainly and I guess electing a physicist who understands how these
dynamics can work was a good idea.

~~~
molmalo
>Seems to be a prediction at the dramatic end in particular if the quick
lockdowns and quarantines are kept up.

I've read several epidemiologists that said stuff among the lines that, while
the objective is not to generate panic, leaders should not minimize the scale
of this outbreak, and the consequences of downplaying it are severe. When
politicians say stuff like "this is just another flu", then lots of people
continue their lives as usual, and thus, it gets almost impossible to slow
down the propagation.

Maybe it's OK to throw those numbers, as a wake up call for society. If the
government ordered a full lock-down, many people that still think "it's just a
flu" would get mad... but if she first announces this, then maybe the rest of
society would be more open to accept the consequences of a lock-down. In the
end, it's politics.

~~~
m0zg
How long do you propose we maintain this "lockdown"?

~~~
molmalo
I would look into China's experience for guidance. I know the costs would be
monumental, so it's not an easy decision, and would not like to be in her
shoes right now. But if the alternative is what Merkel suggests...

~~~
m0zg
But this virus won't go away until a significant fraction of the population
gets infected and heals. It'll come back in the fall when it's colder and hit
again. I'm afraid the only principled solution here is to develop vaccines and
working antivirals in the next few months, which by "normal" standards is
completely unprecedented.

~~~
belltaco
The best way forward is to flatten the curve as much as possible while other
means are worked on.

------
gentleman11
Ireland quoted 50-60% in a CBC article I read earlier today:

[https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-coronavirus-
quaran...](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-coronavirus-quarantine-
europe-1.5492967)

------
strangeloops85
This is completely unwarranted fatalism. Taiwan and Singapore bent the curve,
and Korea is doing it now as well. Learn from them and implement! Really don't
understand this logic at all - containment is possible.

~~~
dusklight
If you said this last week about Singapore I would agree with you. Have you
looked at their graph in the last few days?

~~~
hatenberg
It's still mostly contained (most cases are connected to existing clusters)
but the government is foreshadowing that containment is becoming a major
problem without being able to rely on geographic travel screening. Many
imported cases (UK, Italy, Thailand) in the last few days.

The curve is still very much bent when we look at how early this started in
the country and it will continue to be flatter than in any place not putting
distancing and testing in place on time

------
adrr
Would it make sense to do controlled infections of younger medical staff to
build immunity against the disease so they can do their jobs when masks and
gloves become scarce? Ethics aside just from a pure optimal outcome
perspective. Italy is already reporting a shortage of masks.

~~~
belltaco
There is nothing called a controlled infection outside of a vaccine. As we saw
in Wuhan, several youngish doctors and medical staff died as well. When some
of the "controlled infections" turn severe, now you have to take care of them
as well(probably with a higher priority since they volunteered for the good of
the community), which adds to the burden.

~~~
beatgammit
Well, there is. You infect them and keep them isolated until they recover. If
you do that before the problem becomes rampant, you will have more healthy
doctors available. However, if the virus mutates significantly, they may just
get sick again.

It's possible, but probably not ethical.

------
ofrzeta
"Merkel went on to tell lawmakers that more events and large gatherings could
be canceled, depending on the severity of the outbreak.

Postponing parliamentary proceedings is also a possibility, Merkel said."

wtf. This is what they are planning to do about it?

~~~
ofrzeta
What's to downvote? I mean they are essentially doing nothing. Allegedly this
is also due to the federal system where constituent states get to decide such
policies. The federal health minister can only "recommend" stuff but this is
not the way to contain the spread of a virus.

Neighbour states such as Austria are closing universities while in Germany
they are still playing football matches in arenas with 50.000 people
(yesterday).

~~~
tastroder
> yesterday

I hate the "it's a dynamic situation" wording but yes, days matter here. Also
yesterday, NRW, one of the most affected states put out the official
recommendation to cancel major events with more than 1000 persons. Austria
closed some universities at this point but many are scheduled to close next
Monday.

------
jdkee
This is the end.

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VScSEXRwUqQ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VScSEXRwUqQ)

~~~
dang
Maybe so, but please don't post unsubstantive comments to Hacker News.

