
Auroracoin – Forked and Game Over - gionn
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=546338.0
======
chm
I am disappointed by you guys. No proof was given anywhere. This is just
scaremongering. No matter who BitcoinEXpress is, he didn't give proof.

This was a planned hard fork, as you can see on the Auroracoin forums[1]. The
fork was planned on block 5400, which happened today[2].

[1]
[http://forum.auroracoin.org/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=129](http://forum.auroracoin.org/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=129)

[2]
[http://blockexplorer.auroracoin.eu/block/74546cee7f93595d36a...](http://blockexplorer.auroracoin.eu/block/74546cee7f93595d36a4fb0f4fe62739ca5bced85eb4e368e4c6fee960e73476)

~~~
gus_massa
I was looking for more information, but I can’t find a site that has a
visualization of the forks in the blockchain. Something like this, but with
real numbers and more information:
[http://imgur.com/WNmNtaH](http://imgur.com/WNmNtaH)

Is there a visual representation available?

~~~
chm
Not that I know of, but you'd be welcome to make an app out of this!

I'm not sure it would be very profitable, but it definitely would be helpful
:)

------
rsync
I read a bit through the forum discussion and the part I find fascinating is
that new cryptocurrencies, with low hash rates, are seen as targets ... and
that there are high-hash-capability persons and organizations that will
attempt to "break the bank" so to speak ...

Which leads me to conclude that any new cryptocurrency would need to be
launched by an organization that had the computing power to defend the
currency (assuming it follows resource-intensive mining paradigms like bitcoin
et. al)

Can anyone comment on this interpretation ?

~~~
this_user
> " _Which leads me to conclude that any new cryptocurrency would need to be
> launched by an organization that had the computing power to defend the
> currency (assuming it follows resource-intensive mining paradigms like
> bitcoin et. al)_ "

So, you're saying that there should be some kind of powerful institution that
is capable of defending the currency against manipulation attempts if
necessary and thus ensures a reasonable level of stability in said currency?
This concept seems somewhat familiar, you might even consider it a crypto
currency's _Central Bank_.

What I find funny w.r.t. to BTC et al. is that people are slowly starting to
find out that living in the currency equivalent of the Wild West is not as
much fun as it sounds at first. First, there were calls for more government
regulation and a higher level of accountability on the side of infrastructure
operators and now even the idea of some entity defending the currency against
attacks seems like an attractive prospect.

My prediction is that at the end there will be an epiphany that our real world
currency system is constructed the way it is for a reason. It may not be
perfect, it certainly has some major flaws but at the end of the day it's
still better than the alternatives.

~~~
pkulak
I'm no fan of Bitcoin, in principal. I agree with you; it's flawed as hell
long term, for multiple reasons I won't go into here. But boy, is it ever nice
to work with. Several of the companies I have business with now support BTC
payments, and all I do is click on the link, which opens up my Coinbase
account with all the fields pre-filled, hit one more button and it's done.

Not easier than, say, Amazon, where I buy something every week at least, have
my card information saved and make sure I keep it updated when it expires,
etc. But, if it's a new place, where I just have to make a one-time payment,
I'll choose BTC every time if it's offered.

~~~
wcummings
>I'm no fan of Bitcoin

>I'll choose BTC every time if it's offered

I hate to break this to you, but you _might_ be a fan of Bitcoin

~~~
pkulak
Lot's of things are bad for the world, but personally convenient for me, so I
use them. I'm not saying it's one of my better qualities. :D

------
olalonde
This is "just" a scheduled hard fork that went bad. The developers made a
backwards incompatible change to the protocol and presumably, a sizable part
of the network forgot or refused to update their client.

While altcoins are more vulnerable to 51% attacks, 51% attacks do not result
in hard forks. Hard forks can only happen when two or more incompatible
clients are simultaneously used by the network participants.

51% attacks are easier to pull off during hard forks because the network's
hashing rate is essentially split between the chains but there is no evidence
that such an attack has occurred.

------
gojomo
Forum threads have announced 47 of the last 2 altcoin fatalities.

------
buryat
Everybody knew that it's going to die, no surprise.

Though I'm not disappointed: I made over 20000% on AUR.

~~~
tptacek
This casually written comment sums up most of what I think of cryptocurrencies
in general.

~~~
omegaham
If you'll permit me to put words into your mouth, I think that you're
expressing your disdain for this mindset.

Currency needs to be stable in order to have long-term prospects. The dollar
is stable because everyone believes that the dollar will be around in some
shape or form in 10, 20, 50, 100 years. I'm currently investing in a
retirement fund whose outlook is focused on 2055. Many other people are doing
the same.

If you don't have this stability, your currency isn't really a medium of
exchange; it's a commodity to be speculated on. And, well, as long as you GTFO
of the commodity, it's perfectly fine if its value plummets or goes to zero.
But something of this form will never become a currency because everyone
thinks like this. It's just going to be a way for smart people to separate
fools from their money.

~~~
tptacek
The root comment on this thread wasn't taking advantage of the instability of
Auroracoin; it was taking advantage of a gold rush of other opportunists and
the certitude (reasonable, and, as it turns out, correct) that the Auroracoin
experiment would fail, leaving anyone who bought and held the instruments
holding the bag. In other words, a pump-and-dump scheme.

~~~
compare
Is it similarly immoral for an investor to put money into a startup that they
"know" (highly suspect) will fail?

No one knows what will happen, even if they claim they do. The options aren't
only "know it will go up" or "know it will go down". That was my point that
you were so dismissive of.

~~~
tptacek
That's an interesting and, I think, complicated question. It's easy to
uncomplicate it though; for instance, posit that the "investor" not only
"invests" but also talks the "investment" up. Deliberate deception for profit
has another name: fraud.

~~~
omegaham
I think that's what a lot of these alternate cryptocurrencies are doing.
People get in early and hope that there are enough fools who get in late to
sell their massive holdings to them. Then these same people try to do the same
to other people down the line. Eventually, it becomes clear that there are no
more people to buy into the alternate currency, and the entire thing shits the
bed.

I'm not sure where you draw the line between a "currency" like this and
Bitcoin, but I think it's important to look at what the bulk of transactions
are for. Bitcoin, despite rampant speculation, is still _used_ for some things
- avoiding Paypal, drug transactions, etc. Litecoin is more on the speculation
side, but still has a fair amount of use. Dogecoin has its use on Reddit. But
a lot of these other coins are only for speculation, and it's basically
gambling to put money into them and hope that you get out before everyone goes
"Well, that's all, folks! We're done here!"

------
Kiro
I don't understand. Why is this game over?

~~~
smtddr
Think of it this way, you create a bunch of purple 20 dollar bills and
convince most(51%) of the population that your purple bills are the only legit
ones. So people begin transactions with only the purple bills and green bills
are worthless outside their little town(subnet)... but then someone else
splits up these people again and convinces 51% that red bills are the only
legit one.

So now we have this mess where transactions and various business deals were
made with green, purple and red bills and everyone is arguing about which
color to accept.

There's no sensible way to resolve this without nearly two-thirds of people
being screwed... so you need to wipe everything out and start from the
beginning. Which is lost resources for almost everyone.

So there's no good ending. Any solution to this will cause over 50% of
Auroracoin-holders to lose everything.... this is absolute worse-case doomsday
scenario, assuming someone did a 51% attack with their own blockchain that may
or may not be based on the original. If it's a fork of original, those who
didn't trade and have their coins in offline wallets will be on all forks.

~~~
skybrian
That's an exaggeration. People who haven't traded since the fork haven't lost
anything. If it's caught quickly and resolved, only some of the people who did
trade since the fork lost something.

An obvious workaround would be for the major exchanges to make sure they're on
the same fork and stop all trades if anything goes wrong, until it can be
fixed.

Of course, the secondary effects from loss of reputation are a big problem.

~~~
smtddr
So, there are some caveats here.

 _> >People who haven't traded since the fork haven't lost anything. If it's
caught quickly and resolved, only some of the people who did trade since the
fork lost something._

T̶h̶e̶ ̶p̶e̶o̶p̶l̶e̶ ̶w̶h̶o̶ ̶h̶a̶v̶e̶n̶'̶t̶ ̶t̶r̶a̶d̶e̶d̶ ̶s̶i̶n̶c̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶
̶f̶o̶r̶k̶ ̶w̶o̶n̶'̶t̶ ̶l̶o̶s̶e̶ ̶a̶n̶y̶t̶h̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶_̶I̶F̶_̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶k̶
̶t̶h̶e̶i̶r̶ ̶c̶o̶i̶n̶s̶ ̶a̶r̶e̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶o̶n̶e̶ ̶c̶h̶o̶s̶e̶n̶
̶a̶s̶ ̶l̶e̶g̶i̶t̶. Also, the people who keep coins in exchanges _(against
advise to do otherwise)_ , if the exchange is operating on a losing fork...
all costumers are kinda screwed.

But you're right that if action is swift enough and some authorative-group of
people can say _" use this fork and ignore the other two"_, then minimal
damage will be done.

If this is not dealt with early enough.... ever second that goes by all kinds
of transactions are taking place and if all major exchanges are not on the
same fork, the exchanges running on a losing fork(and all its costumers) are
in for some bad times. My guess is they'll probably have to pick the fork that
has the most exchanges running on it. Or, if what I've read is correct and
Auroracoin is premined... then those premined coins must be rescued.

We'll see in the days to come what ends up happening...

EDIT: To those who replied below me, you're right. If you haven't traded your
coins are on all forks.

~~~
LoganCale
If someone hasn't traded since the fork, their coins are on both forks and it
doesn't matter which fork is chosen.

------
vsayer
It's FUD guys. Scare tactics to make you dump your coins so scammers can buy
low. Just please be sure to update your wallets.

------
User54
It was just one person who stated there was multiple forks, it was several
posting on Reddit and Bitcointalk. A few them are developers. The hash rate
jumped instantly from 1.6 GBS to more than 50gbs in a matter of a minute or
two. There were clearly multiple forks for a time.

------
e3pi
coinmarketcap.com charts over 190 altcoins.

30 day chart:

[http://coinmarketcap.com/aur_30.html](http://coinmarketcap.com/aur_30.html)

7 day chart:

[http://coinmarketcap.com/aur_7.html](http://coinmarketcap.com/aur_7.html)

~~~
gus_massa
Yes, it’s sinking, but this drop is caused by another problem.

The pessimistic interpretation says that this is caused by a pump and dump
scheme.

The optimistic interpretation says that Auroracoin was heavily (50%) premined.
The premined coins were stored and the amount was approximately 100x the
amount of the new coins. In the last 4 days they started to distribute the
premined coins to the Islanders. So the amount of circulation coins increased
heavily, and the price dropped. It’s like inflation.

I don’t have the actual numbers, but I think that the distribution of the
coins was unsuccessful. If it were successful the price would have fallen even
more.

------
victormx
Just FUD, it's a hard fork, bitcoin has passed for this situations

------
ing33k
dogecoin faced some issues like this, but community is strong and people
promptly update their clients when announced .

------
runn1ng
phpBB threads are so painful to read.

------
solve
Linkbait garbage. I don't like AUR much either, but this title is linkbait
garbage.

