
How London Transport Is Preparing for Life After Lockdown - samizdis
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-london-cycling-streetspace
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chosenbreed37
This is probably going to be tricky. I don't see how the 2 meter rule (or
variant thereof) can be enforced on the underground trains at peak times. On a
slight tangent, given that everyone will be required to wear a mask doesn't
the risk of spreading/catching the virus diminish thereby eliminating the need
for the distance rule?

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georgespencer
Masks are not 100% effective even when worn properly. Think of it like an
airliner: smoking is banned, but they also have smoke alarms AND flame
retardant fittings.

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stupidcar
[https://usa.streetsblog.org/2020/05/29/feds-seek-
incentives-...](https://usa.streetsblog.org/2020/05/29/feds-seek-incentives-
to-encourage-driving-which-will-accelerate-the-other-pandemic-traffic-
violence/)

"Japan, which has the third highest rate of transit ridership in the world,
found no infection events linked to commuter trains after performing rigorous
contact tracing on almost 17,000 confirmed cases."

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georgespencer
On the surface I can't see why no instances of infection being traced to
travel on Japan's commuter trains has any relevance in a conversation about
London's strategy for decreasing infection risk.

From the article you linked:

"Oshitani says riders are usually alone and not talking to other passengers.
And lately, they are all wearing masks. “An infected individual can infect
others in such an environment, but it must be rare,” he says."

Tokyo has benefitted from both a fall in the volume of passengers on the
Metro, and an infection rate of 0.5 per capita. The virus is more than 500x as
prevalent in the UK as a whole, and more than 600x as prevalent in London.

~~~
stupidcar
The point is, in Japan's case masks appear to be 100% effective, or very close
to it, in eliminating transmission on public transport.

Do you have a reason to believe greater prevalence of the virus is linked to
lower mask effectiveness in this specific context?

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gok
Wearing masks being 100% effective is utterly impossible. The most positive
studies show them being more like 85% effective.

There simply are no infected people on Japan's transit, due to the country's
intensive, early quarantining procedures. (same with Korea and Taiwan)

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m0xte
I think they forgot the bit about withdrawing free transport for school
children and pushing it onto the local councils to pay for instead.

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iso1210
The national government has withdrawn free transport for children, not TFL

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m0xte
That’s a fair description. It was part of the terms of the bail out.

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iso1210
A bailout required because the national government ordered TFL to operate in
the way it did (80%+ service) while the customers had dropped to 10%.

While private firms were bailed out with no conditions, TFL wasn't, because
the national government wants to make the mayor (who's from the other party)
look bad for the next election.

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mkchoi212
I feel like the London subway carriages are a lot smaller than subway
carriages from other parts of the world; e.g South Korea. In addition, I’m not
sure how good the air circulation is in the tube as it doesn’t have the best
reputation for having a good AC system. Hope this emboldens the British gov to
make the necessary changes to the tube.

~~~
samizdis
Yes, they are smaller, but north of the border in Scotland, the Glasgow
underground system runs carriages that are smaller still.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_Subway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_Subway)

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RcouF1uZ4gsC
I think support for public transport will be one of the major casualties of
this pandemic. In general, with this pandemic combined with the civil unrest,
I think you may start seeing a lot of people fleeing the cities for the
suburbs.

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iso1631
There's no civil unrest in London, a few marches and protests in the city
centres

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georgespencer
The tl;dr seems to be that capacity will be 13-15% of the norm (the norm is 9m
people per day, so 1.17m-1.35m), and with double decker buses only able to
ferry 22% of their normal load around, and tube carriages only carrying 7% of
their normal load if 2m social distancing is maintained.

(Wouldn't put it past Bloomberg to have just added the 7% + 22% = 29% / 2 =
14.5% to arrive at their implied 13-15% range.)

The mayor is temporarily placing traffic restrictions in certain areas and
widening cycle lanes and pavements to encourage more bikes/pedestrian transit.

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cranekam
More than 50% of people drive to work in NYC? That is completely bonkers.

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vonmoltke
No. The map in this profile has the area Deloitte considers "New York" for the
index:
[https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/insights/us/articles/4...](https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/insights/us/articles/4331_Deloitte-
City-Mobility-Index/NewYork_GlobalCityMobility_WEB.pdf)

That it's _only_ 57% for that entire area speaks to how many people in it
commute into the City for work.

Here's the source for all their profiles:
[https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/focus/future-of-
mob...](https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/focus/future-of-
mobility/deloitte-urban-mobility-index-for-cities.html#google-map)

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dheera
I feel like doing this would completely eliminate the environmental AND
traffic benefits of public transportation -- you're effectively distancing
people at the same amount they would be if they were driving cars.

I don't have a solution, unfortunately, but I just hope that a vaccine will
allow us to break the 2 meter rule eventually.

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dannyw
There’s an unpopular option: herd immunity.

NYC is 1/3rd to 1/4th there. Would you trade 3-4x the deaths to get it over
with, completely? It’s not an easy decision. It’s hard to say yes.

But what if it’s Q4 2021 and there is still no vaccine?

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wackget
Wow, the animations on that page are not only annoying but prevent you from
actually focusing on the illustrations.

Whoever "designed" this needs to think about usability next time.

