
Understanding financial levers – modeling the unit economics of Bird - m-watson
https://techcrunch.com/2018/04/10/how-to-understand-the-financial-levers-in-your-business/
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taneq
I'd be really interested in the real-life lifespan of scooters, including
theft, ditching (cue pictures of piles of ditched e-bikes sitting in a
stream), customers doing stupid things and breaking them etc. Also on real-
life utilisation percentage (ride length, rides/day). Together these could
make an order of magnitude change in the profit expected.

The article is making the point that changing the key parameters dramatically
varies your expected profit, but the message I'm taking away is you can make
any business model look arbitrarily good or bad by slightly tweaking your
estimates, and the more multipliers in your model, the more 'flexible' it is
in this way.

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gringoDan
I think it's great that the tech/startup industry as a whole has moved more
towards a "let's ensure the unit economics work" mentality vs. the "we'll grow
quickly and monetize through advertising later" mentality of ~5-7 years ago.

"Getting lots of users" is not a viable business model.

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greatamerican
This is a nice analysis. TechCrunch has been doing much better work recently.

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dharma1
Always wondered, given the profitability, as shown in this article (mainly due
to Chinese electric scooters being cheap) - why no scooter sharing startups in
London?

Does the subsidised bike sharing scheme make anything else unattractive?

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zhoujianfu
I’m sure it’s coming... bird just launched 7 months ago and raised serious
money in the last month, and all the copycats just launched last month!

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boffinism
I know this is a deliberately simple model, but treating "custom code" as a
variable cost that increases with each unit sold makes me sad.

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taneq
I thought that per-unit cost was for the GPS/3G hardware plus whatever custom
circuit board (or Arduino or whatever, heh) they use to tie it all together.
The "plus some custom code" bit was just a nod in the direction that some
software would be required, even if it's not been assigned a number.

