
Ask HN: Is there any serious discussion about the stock market online? - FreeHugs
To me it often seems, HN is the only intelligent site on the net. At least for posts that get a lot of votes. Then usually some substantial comments get voted to the top and the nonsense tends to sink to the bottom.<p>I think a lot about the stock market and would love to read some discussion about company valuations. But I have found nothing so far. Neither on social media, nor on classic newspaper sites. All I found so far is cheap nonsense.<p>Is there anything out there worth reading?
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Lorenz-Kraft
Personally, it think you allready understood most of what's happening: Its
mostly nonsense. Its all "Future Bets" und "Future Expectations" that are all
explained by "Experts" and plain lies from CEOs about actual value. As every
toddler can tell you: Nobody can tell you the future.

Or do you want to grasp the "inner workings" like "Ratings" and stuff?

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cyberdrunk
You can at least try discussing real valuations of various securities (aka
fundamental analysis). Then, whenever current market insanity brings the price
below the real valuation, you buy. Fundamental analysis looks like full time
work though.

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PaulHoule
The great hedge fund manager John Maynard Keynes said "Markets can remain
irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent."

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PaulHoule
No.

If I knew something about the stock market that was valuable and I told people
for free i would destroy the value of that knowledge.

Thus 'those who know don't talk and those who talk don't know'.

This is math and you can't get around it. By definition somebody pontificating
on the stock market is doing it for self-aggrandizement or to fool you to make
bad trades.

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janbernhart
If someone 'knows/sees' product X is over/under valued, he/she will act on it
(buy or sell it) which will bend the price to that new value.

Now there are no absolute certainties, and the knowledge that come close to
absolute certainty and aren't publicly known, are usually pretty illegal to
share.

What's left it mostly speculation. Which is fine, that is how this all works.

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PaulHoule
You can definitely win money at the thoroughbred or harness racing track, not
by picking "the best horse", but by waiting for a bet that is terrifically
mispriced. Maybe once a day there is one that is so clear to me that I can do
the math in my head, otherwise it's a game of running my model on my
calculator, applying Kelly to decide bets, etc.

The "dollars get left on the floor" because the opportunity is limited there.
At my local track I'd estimate that a bet more than about $50 would move the
odds into a bad place for me. If I have a big bankroll I can't make Kelly bets
anymore and my rate of return goes down. People who are good at this and
serious about making money start their own sports books, trade derivatives, or
something.

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imakwana
Not exactly stocks but for wide ranging topics in terms of Asset Allocation
this forum is highly recommended: Bogleheads sub-forum Investing Theory, News
and General :
[https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewforum.php?f=10](https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewforum.php?f=10)

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logicslave
Honestly, r/wallstreetbets has the most realistic information. You have to
parse through a ton of bs. But theres some good market perspective if you look
for it. Otherwise, I have found nothing, maybe r/investing or r/stockmarket,
but those are naive.

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marketgod
Try r/thewallstreet not too bad either but better following me with options :)

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akg_67
If you are interested in valuations, /r/securityanalysis might be good
subreddit. There are lot of different niche subreddits covering different
aspects of stock market so look around.

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scott31
No ignore any discussion and put all your money in an index fund

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arsahraei
+1 there is a lot of good discussions on Bogleheads forum/wiki if you just
want to invest in highly diversified funds:
[https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/index.php](https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/index.php)

