

Metcalfe to Unveil 'New Ethernet' - davidkhess
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=217276&f_src=lightreading_gnews

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gojomo
Finally, something to help us rebuild after the great Internet collapse of
1996!

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Metcalfe#Incorrect_predi...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Metcalfe#Incorrect_predictions)

(I am in fact a fan of Metcalfe's writing, and he did literally 'eat his
words' after that wrong prediction, but this deserves mentionining in the
context of a 'new Ethernet'.)

~~~
Zikes
I see no information on the basis of his prediction. Does anyone know if he
gave any reasons for a supposed collapse, or if it was mere conjecture?

~~~
wmf
[http://web.archive.org/web/19991023010820/http://www.infowor...](http://web.archive.org/web/19991023010820/http://www.infoworld.com/archives/html/dt_IWE49-95_23.htm)

This was around the time Internet traffic doubled in 100 days, a rate that
outstripped any possible capacity buildout. Fortunately for the Internet, that
rate of demand growth did not continue.
[http://firstmonday.org/htbin/cgiwrap/bin/ojs/index.php/fm/ar...](http://firstmonday.org/htbin/cgiwrap/bin/ojs/index.php/fm/article/view/3142/2603)

