
Predicting Winners of the Rugby World Cup - gk1
http://blog.dominodatalab.com/predicting-winners-of-the-rugby-world-cup/?r=1
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antod
Their prediction numbers seem a little off to someone with a passing knowledge
of rugby but not enough statistics knowledge to understand the analysis.

eg NZ having a higher probability of beating Argentina, than NZ has of beating
Namibia (or Georgia and Tonga too). Argentina is a much better team with a
higher world ranking than Namibia.

The numbers were probably skewed by NZ not playing against Namibia very often
(or even at all?), but they've played Argentina relatively often in the past.

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rangibaby
Their data should have included RWC matches or tiers or both.

Certain teams look quite good on paper; Japan have won about half their games
(ever) but only won one match in the RWC (ever) before their "biggest-ever
upset" victory against South Africa.

I guess this proves the importance of making a good estimate. If something is
obviously off with your result, it's worth checking your model.

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PhilWright
You don't need a fancy analysis. Just pick New Zealand every time and you will
do fine.

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harry8
Nous allons d'enfants de la patrie!

NZ in a world cup not at home. Record not so flash... :-P

Oh did you hear Richie finally got sent off for a professional foul. So he's
not a reality distortion field anymore and is going to get penalised like
everyone else who commits professional fouls all day? Worrying for the all
blacks. Very worrying.

In all seriousness if you're silly enough to bet rugby the thing to watch is
how much pressure is being put on the ref. Because, tragically, that is what
decides games between two strong sides. Some of it is blatant and public and
much of it isn't but it's there none the less. England are about the fourth
best rugby side in the world at best, but they're raging hot favourites
because you know that's what's going on. Tough to tell the difference between
rugby and professional wrestling sometimes.

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nzealand
So you are expecting France to face England in the semi's and the All Blacks
(of course) in the finals.

Tough lineup.

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mehwoot
Seems to vastly overestimate the chance of underdogs winning- for example it
has Uruguay at a 20% chance to beat Australia, but on betting markets it is
<1%.

Ditto Namibia is 10% chance to beat New Zealand, but it's around 0.1% on
betting markets.

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rodgerd
Yeah, I mean it _could_ happen. But when one considers that, say, Ireland have
_never_ beaten the All Blacks in over 100 years, 10% for Namibia seems pretty
ludicrous.

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dbcooper
A confounding factor with using 2015 data will be the nature of games played
relatively close to the RWC. Many teams will not play their top lineup, and
will not use their best/newest tactics. Indeed, they may approach the match as
much as a training exercise as a contest.

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mattlutze
Particularly as the 4-6 months leading up to the WC, the primary point of test
matches and friendlies testing new players for inclusion in the training
camps, and then testing for cuts or inclusion on the WC team.

Points scored is only one of many components, and often not the most
important, for what ranks a 1st-15 player.

