
Dow rallies more than 700 points after record surge in U.S. jobs - blueblisters
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
======
koheripbal
I don't understand why Wall Street estimated that unemployment would continue
to 20% (would have been a post-WWII high), despite the news that multiple
states had already opened back up.

Anecdotally, I can attest that the married couples in our suburb are desperate
to go out on date-nights again. I imagine that's similar everywhere - and the
news certainly confirms that people aren't afraid of the virus (even if they
should be). ...and since restaurants are desperate to re-open to pay the
bills, it seems clear that they'd want to re-hire staff.

The real question is whether the re-openings and/or the protests will cause a
large enough 2nd peak of the virus to cause additional closures over the
summer - or impact the expectation of closures again in the fall.

~~~
SpicyLemonZest
The desire to go out is very unevenly distributed. I know people who are
desperate to go out, but I also know people who plan to mostly stay in until
there's a vaccine, and they struggle to believe the first group really means
what they're saying. ("They must be trolling", I've heard from multiple
friends.)

~~~
guscost
We are not. You’re free to throw away another year of your life cooped up
indoors because of a miniscule (for most people) risk that is not going
anywhere, but most people will choose otherwise.

~~~
ethbro
Realistically appraising risks, there are 3 reasons for limiting activity:

1) You're in a high-risk demographic: 70+, have health problems, lack access
to high-level health care facilities.

2) You interact with people who are in high-risk demographics: nursing home
staff, service industry where your customers are elderly, medical staff.

3) You want to support broader transmission mitigation. Mask-everwhere is the
most obvious action here, but limiting high-risk activities helps too.

It's easy to forget that tragedy of the commons also means opportunity for the
individual.

Some of us, despite not being in (1) or (2), feel good about doing what we
_individually_ can to avoid another broad lockdown. Decreasing R_t through
personal choices is going to be a big component of the aggregate number.

~~~
guscost
My honest reaction to this is fury, but let me instead only say that we do not
agree about what is best for the commons, and I will never allow you to coerce
me into going along with your plan.

~~~
nkozyra
I read the parent comment like four times and did not see any hint of
coercion. It is expressed as a personal approach.

~~~
guscost
Just being candid, in case anyone is under the delusion that it might be worth
trying.

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jmisavage
This is kind of strange considering that new jobless claims were 1.877 million
and continuing claims are 21.5 million for last week. Which is a rise from the
week before. There was a big dip 2 weeks ago so maybe that's it.

Anyway these job reports always get revised months later when more complete
data is gathered.

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empath75
Is it that shocking that some jobs bounced back quickly? I'd think even bears
would expect a lot of retail jobs to come back right away.

~~~
game_the0ry
It's shocking that jobs came back _before_ the lockdown ended nationally.

Especially shocking that retail hiring would pick up as protestors shut down
streets and rioters loot and burn down retail businesses.

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bwooceli
this reeks of "throw some good news at the cycle to boost up just enough to
soften your recent losses and then brace for impact"

------
game_the0ry
The data are likely bunk and wall street is trying to convince main street
that all is well [1].

I certainly do not share the optimism of the participants in the market. I
think many people are in a state of denial and willfully ignorant optimism,
which is understandable since people get irrational with their own money at
risk (I've been there). The US (and arguably the world) is going through a lot
of pain right now and it's tempting to look at this article (or any sign of
hope, no matter how trivial) and think "everything is fine."

^^ Take a moment to reflect on the above - did it upset you? Are you smashing
your keyboard in reply? Before you do, consider: that's exactly how rational
markets become irrational, how markets crashed in 2000-2002 and 2008, and how
they'll boom and crash in the future - unchecked emotional reaction to fear.
If you need to take it out, just downvote and get it out of your system.

[1] [https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nothing-has-happened-
shock...](https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nothing-has-happened-shocked-wall-
street-responds-payrolls-offers-3-options-what-happened)

------
xoxoy
Seems like a lot of rehires using PPP money.

Odd that 10% of jobs were dental office workers. I can see why they’d rehire
staff for PPP but why aren’t other healthcare specialties similarly
overrepresented?

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pwdisswordfish2
"The unemployment rate in May was 13.3%, beating estimates of 19.5%, according
to the Labor Department."

~~~
game_the0ry
Am I the only one who doesn't feel warm and fuzzy from this info? I guess so,
since the market is hotter than the corner liquor store I saw get burned down
the other night.

------
dayofthedaleks
Looking forward to learning how the DoL juked these stats. This doesn't pass
the smell test, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPnow still predicting a 50%+
contraction through Q2.

~~~
koheripbal
Do you have any evidence that the numbers have been falsified or is your
comment pure cynicism?

~~~
mylons
what evidence do you have that they’re accurate other than taking the news’
word for it?

~~~
riffraff
The default state is that statistics bureaus can be trusted to report mostly
correct numbers even if they spin them (e.g. report employment vs unemployment
according to what's better).

So if someone says "they are fake numbers" they should be ready to corroborate
that with evidence, it's not on the people who believe the institutions to
prove that they are correct.

~~~
mylons
kind of strange that the BLS would release this on a weekend when it wouldn't
effect markets. lol.
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/05/may-2020-...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/05/may-2020-jobs-
report-misclassification-error/)

