
Russia and the Curse of Geography (2015) - DiabloD3
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/10/russia-geography-ukraine-syria/413248/?single_page=true
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Const-me
Before Russia attacked Ukraine, there was no NATO treat that side. Before the
war, vast majority (60-70%) of Ukrainians were against NATO:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations#Popular_opinion_in_Ukraine)

NATO is already directly at Russian borders: Norway, Estonia, Latvia, and
Lithuania. The distance between Moscow and closest point in Latvia is about
600 km = 375 miles. Between Moscow and closest point in Ukraine 460 km. Not a
big difference.

Finally, the Crimea is not the proper warm-water port for Russia, because
Turkey controls the straights at the exit of the black sea, and Turkey is a
NATO member state.

The main reason why Russia attacked Ukraine is internal. The two countries are
very close historically and culturally, and the number of immigrants is
millions both directions. Ukrainians were able to forcefully remove their
corrupt leader from power. This was extremely scary for Putin, as he knew he’s
likely the next. He started the war to teach Ukraine a lesson, and to alienate
Russians against Ukrainians so Russians will see Ukrainians as their enemy,
not the role model.

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squozzer
Another thing Russian leaders know pretty well -- every invasion from the West
ultimately failed. Invasions from the East, that's a different story.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_invasion_of_Rus%27](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_invasion_of_Rus%27)

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woodandsteel
Good article.

I would just add that Russia's geography has had an odd impact on its culture.
It is close to Europe, so it has had to modernize to have the economic and
military strength to resist invasion. But it is so vast and hence hard to
conquer that it could without going all the way and becoming a free market
liberal democracy. So the country is always going back and forth between
modernizing and returning to its authoritarian traditions.

