

Analysis of E(V) of working for a startup - jameslin101
http://jasongowans.net/2013/09/27/joining-a-startup-think-slow/#!

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abbazabba
_Those are the companies that were actually accepted to Y-Combinator. The
Y-Combintor acceptance rate is said to be 3%. So, your odds of success are now
more like 3%_ 7% = 0.2%*

All of this hinges on the assumption:

Y-combinator is a proxy for the start-up population.

 _Even taking the optimistic Y-Combinator outcome, would you be willing to
accept a 7% chance of making $400K?_

This is assuming you only get paid in that 1% equity while assuming the 40MM
exit. If I got paid a SALARY I can accept + 1%, why wouldn't I take that
chance? It is +EV. Compare this to the lottery, which carries a -EV.

~~~
gazarsgo
also assumes y-combinator acceptance increases your survival odds, right ?

~~~
abbazabba
HA.

Yes, but hey if someone's got the evidence to support it, it wouldn't hurt
anyone to see it.

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gazarsgo
I like the general tone of this piece, but how many salaries are below market
rate at a startup these days? The fringe benefits are pretty insane right now
too.

IMO, the biggest concern for an employee is dilution. Sometimes this happens
in non-obvious ways, like on exit what happens to undistributed shares
allocated to the employee grant pool?

