
Real-Time Stock Indices Futures - af16090
http://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
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nateberkopec
Worth remembering that the FTSE (UK stock index) crashed briefly after Brexit,
and is now up.

The markets priced in a Clinton win, and now that isn't happening. What we're
seeing is uncertainty and volatility getting priced into the market, not any
referendum on Trump. We'll see what happens in a week.

~~~
xenadu02
It's also worth remembering that no one has any idea what the long-term
consequences are either. Brexit might never happen, it might happen and be a
disaster, or it might happen and not really affect much.

Similarly with Trump we have no idea what might happen if he does win. He
could end up starting WW3, or call for the end of US Democracy and install
himself as dictator (and now we know 50% of the country is stupid enough to go
along with that).... or he might just end up a do-nothing president bounced
out after 4 years. For that matter maybe he's crazy like a fox and fed the Rs
bullshit so they'd get behind him, then turn around and push for a hugely
progressive agenda. You never know what Trump might do.

So yes, I predict a short-term crash, a recovery, but after that all bets are
off. We're also due for a recession at some point. In fact Trump could be a
blessing in disguise as he presides over a recession, bungles the response,
and gets him and the rest of the Rs tossed out in 2018 or 2020.

I'm torn about the whole thing because I will personally benefit from
Republican control. I've finally made it into the tax bracket where their
constant tax breaks for the rich personally benefit me. Long-term their rich-
get-richer strategy will lead to anemic growth.

Whoever said "may you live in interesting times" as a curse was right.

~~~
botexpert
> and now we know 50% of the country is stupid enough to go along with that

this kind of superiority isolationism leads to the problem. it lead to brexit
and to the election of many right-wing politicians in european countries.

when a large mass of people is isolated and unrepresented, they will strike.

~~~
tootie
There's no other explanation I can accept at this point. You can break down
how he appealed to voter sentiment better than liberals because he obviously
did, but you'll never convince me his policies won't go in the completely
wrong direction for everyone.

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swalsh
I think this is an emotional reaction, I have 60k of liquid cash ready to
invest tomorrow, where would be the best place to put it? My first thought is
a leveraged ETF... which I think for a short term trade is okay, but the
leveraged nature might magnify my losses more than I can tolerate if I'm
wrong. What are you guys looking at?

~~~
devbug
Go back in time and buy call options? Now... you're trying to time the market.
Good luck.

~~~
MoOmer
Ah, ye olde time inverted option

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AndrewKemendo
I've posted this elsewhere but about a year ago I was invited to a private
wealth management (PWM) round table luncheon with a bunch of the principals
from UBS PWM.

I asked them what they thought would happen if Trump was elected and they said
that because of his unpredictability, the markets would likely take a huge
hit. They went further, and said that when they spoke with leaders in politics
and business in other countries around the world, those leaders indicated
their biggest fears were if Trump won and they would have to reevaluate their
strategies with the US.

Interesting times.

~~~
throwaway5752
I'm not buying the dip tomorrow. This isn't a temporary issue. It's going to
cause a global power realignment in the ME, eastern Europe, and all countries
on the South China Sea. It's a huge victory for Russia on the heels of the
Brexit, and by extension China. If China close ended funds take a hit, buy
them. Hard to think of a floor on US equities that makes sense, but I don't
see why a 25% fall over the next year isn't possible.

~~~
slv77
Under Trump there is little chance that the US wouldn't enter a trade war with
China since Trump has already publically declared that he will leave China as
a currency manipulator. China is already struggling with massive over capacity
in about every industry and needs the export market to export the resulting
deflation. It is unlikely that China is going to see another market as large
or as willing to absorb imports as the US market has been.

China is struggling with massive amounts of bad debt and a sharp downturn in
trade could set China down the path of a deflationary depression. The end
result may be beneficial if China is able to rebalance its economy but _no_
economy that has grown debt as fast as China has recently has ever been able
to do it without massive deflationary disruption (including the US).

Generally the world seems to move toward greater integration and trade and
then step back in a two steps forward one step back pattern. Trade is
generally collapsing globally and this may be another shot across the bow.

This has the definite possibility of trying to catch a falling knife.

~~~
saretired
As of September, China held $1.22 trillion of US Treasury bonds. Something to
keep in mind before launching a trade war.

~~~
slv77
So what?

The world is literally starving for high quality assets with yield right now.
Ten year bonds in Japan have _zero_ yield and a lot of bonds are trading with
_negative_ yield. If China were to convert all those bonds into cash in a fire
sale there would be investors literally lining up to purchase them.

Then all that China has done is traded one form of USD debt (bonds) for
another form (cash). To get out of the USD it would need to exchange that for
something else of value. What? Bonds denominated in Euro? Ten?

How do you think the ECB or JCB would react if their currencies started to
soar relative to the USD as a result? Do you think Germany would sit idly by
as their manufacturing was decimated due to the strong currency? Would Japan?

So what if instead they went on a shopping spree and bought US produced goods.
Would the US be aghast as demand soared and factories were expanded and wages
rise and imports from China sank?

There are certainly people that would get hurt in that scenario. Retirees
would be crushed; retail would be crushed; real estate would be crushed; US
government spending would be crushed; Wall Street banks would be crushed; US
advertising would be crushed.

But at the same time farmers would soar; manufacturing would soar; oil
producers would soar; miners would soar;

Look at the US electoral map and see if how many Trump states would be on the
wrong side of that outcome.

~~~
kasey_junk
> Retirees would be crushed; retail would be crushed; real estate would be
> crushed; US government spending would be crushed; Wall Street banks would be
> crushed; US advertising would be crushed.

> But at the same time farmers would soar; manufacturing would soar; oil
> producers would soar; miners would soar;

Interestingly, the industries you are suggesting would crash employ most of
the people in _all_ states and the ones you suggest would soar are not large
employers (with the exception of oil/mining that might come back online).

Oil and mining actually might get wrecked as well if the US/China relationship
gets worse as Chinese demand is so important to those industries globally. Its
hard to tell what the equilibrium point in those markets would look like.

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theuri
Look at the VIX - up 42% at the moment... A sign of major volatility expected
ahead.

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SeanAnderson
Does the stock market traditionally drop around election time? Uncertainty is
usually bad for the market, yeah?

~~~
CydeWeys
No, it doesn't traditionally drop -- it only drops when the "wrong" candidate
wins (as determined by who the markets would prefer). It dropped because
Trump's stated economic, trade, and diplomatic policies are anti-globalization
and would be bad for business. The markets were riding lower for weeks on
fears of Trump winning, then recovered yesterday when Hillary had that final
uptick. Now they've lost all that and then some.

~~~
brianlash
I'll be very interested to see whether this interpretation comes to bear. The
more likely explanation, I think, is that something unexpected is happening,
and markets don't like uncertainty. A little reductionist? Maybe. But maybe
not.

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swsh
Does this imply that the well educated wall street folk might be out of touch
with 'America'?

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madengr
I have $8k waiting to dump into my kids ESA; been waiting for market to drop.

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rdtsc
Time to buy then?

(Half kidding, I know they say to never time the market and such).

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hristov
It seems that the biggest beneficiary at this point is Turkey. Make Turkey
great again???

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hackaflocka
A 300 point drop in the Dow is an "almost normal" day.

700 point is nothing to worry about.

~~~
saretired
There have only been 2 drops greater than 700 points. The third largest fall
was 684 points.

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return0
Hey did anyone mention it's because TRUMP HAS WON?

~~~
noobermin
I believe this is implicit.

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branchless
4% isn't much. Good site though, so thx.

~~~
af16090
The percent the S&P 500 futures can fall before they stop trading is 5%[1]. So
this is a big drop.

[1]: [http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/faq-
sp-500-pric...](http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/faq-sp-500-price-
limits.html)

~~~
branchless
How's the market doing? Did you dump it all at the bottom?

