

IPv4 is depleted: Final five blocks allocated to registries - jedsmith
http://mailman.nanog.org/pipermail/nanog/2011-February/032107.html

======
JacobAldridge
I asked this question on a similar article that gained no traction here
recently: what do I, as a regular user of the internet, hosting no domains,
and with no real responsibility for any website technicals, need to do about
this? (Or what can I do about this?)

Do I need to request something from my ISP? Lobby them to see if _they_ take
it seriously? Or do I have little choice but to hang around, feeling smug
because I've heard of IPv6 before this week, but waiting for someone else to
ensure I transition?

~~~
jedsmith
> Do I need to request something from my ISP? Lobby them to see if they take
> it seriously?

Yes, but it's less crucial for you. Ask for a timeline for IPv6, if you'd
like, but don't expect much.

You can also set up IPv6 for yourself or your home network via a tunnel (which
is a pretty fun exercise), and get access to the IPv6-enabled Internet. All
recent operating systems have very good support for it -- even Windows 7 will
hear RA and autoconfigure itself.

Start here: <http://www.ipsidixit.net/2010/02/24/228/>

You can get a tunnel here: <http://tunnelbroker.net/main.php>

Other people use this, but I prefer HE: <http://www.sixxs.net/>

~~~
dfox
Or if you don't have static routable v4 address but have at least dynamically
allocated v4 routable address you can use 6to4.

I use this to configure my Debian-based router to change used v6 addresses to
match DHCP-allocated v4: <https://gist.github.com/806333> (bit of an ugly
hack)

~~~
slug
I strongly recommend this or 6RD. It's a very straightforward and easy way of
getting into IPv6 before ISPs start offering IPv6, as comcast did recently (
<http://www.comcast6.net/> ).

~~~
danudey
From the Comcast link:

 _Each user has been delegated a /64 block of approximately
18,446,744,073,709,551,616 (18 quintillion) unique IPv6 addresses._

This seems like a ridiculous number of addresses, until you realize that this
basically allows for 18 quintillion users, each with 18 quintillion addresses,
before we exhaust the IPv6 space.

~~~
rbranson
I think /64 was the guideline for the smallest divisible network an ISP should
hand out. It basically allows for a household or organization to grow
indefinitely while assigning anything that can hook up to the network a real
IP address, with little restrictions on topology and/or address allocation
layout. No need to reuse the addresses either, just give the new device a new
one.

EDIT: I forgot to add that it also allows network devices to use their 64-bit
link layer (ethernet/MAC) address as a host identifier.

~~~
dfox
Actually, /64 _is_ the smallest indivisible network. You can divide that
further, but then you lose this network/host identifier split and IPv6
features that require that (stateless autoconfiguration, privacy
extensions...). So in case of normal network, ISP handing out /64 restricts
topology of you network in that you can have only one network (with normal
end-user devices).

Using smaller networks than /64 is certainly possible, but it's not something
you want to do on end-user network and it's best left only for things like
point-to-point connections and intra-datacenter networks.

------
sshconnection
Best tweet of the morning: "I came here to kick ass and assign IPv4 addresses.
And I'm all out of IPv4 addresses."

~~~
tetsuo13
Source:
[https://twitter.com/#!/secretsquirrel/status/325967820137472...](https://twitter.com/#!/secretsquirrel/status/32596782013747200)

~~~
sshconnection
Thanks, someone retweeted it and I didn't have the link handy.

------
hapless
IPv4 is only "depleted" in a very technical sense. The last free /8 was
allocated to a regional authority. This does not mean no IPv4 addresses are
available.

The regional authorities (RIRs), the guys who actually allocate the addresses
to user organizations, still have many, many blocks to allocate. The first RIR
isn't expected to run out of ipv4 space until October.

That's when the shit really hits the fan -- requests for IPv4 space start to
be rejected, ISPs start deploying NAT or 6RD, network administrators start
jumping from windows etc.

~~~
jedsmith
APNIC is expected to run out sooner than October. October is on the high end
of predictions, with some predicting as early as May based on burn rate. Two
different sources:

<http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg> (probability distribution per-
month)

<http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.jpg>

The entire point of this exercise is to raise awareness. The IPv4 reserves are
depleted, and the five regions are now chewing on the crumbs. Granted, this
isn't shit hitting the fan -- however, preparations for shit hitting the fan
must be on everybody's radar right _now_.

Huge changes to infrastructure, which honestly should have been completed
years ago, do not happen overnight. That's why this is news.

------
jedsmith
Now it's up to the registries. From a nearby thread on NANOG, the forecasted
exhaustion dates of the individual registries:
<http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.jpg>

~~~
flyt
It's time to invade Africa and take all their precious IP addresses!

------
ajb
Anyone know how the transition in China is going? My employer sells networking
products there, and all Chinese customers require IPv6 support. It would be
interesting to know if it's rolled out to consumers yet.

------
51Cards
I always thought that when we ran out of IP4, that some of the companies
holding on to Class A blocks would release parts of those for use. I'm not a
master of how blocks are assigned or if addressing wise it would be feasible
but really, does Ford fully use its Class A block? Prudential Insurance? Eli
Lilly? GE?

~~~
jedsmith
They could be playing the long view and realizing how much that address space
is worth. If I were in charge of IT at those companies, I'd renumber out of
the block and start thinking about selling the space, once it gets tight.

I've noticed that the perceived view in the netops community -- backed up by
mailing list messages today, even -- is that such an IPv4 broker market is an
inevitability no matter what the RIRs do. There are policies about it, but
some regions (i.e., APNIC) have a model that encourages reselling space
without their involvement.

~~~
oasisbob
Many people don't realize how non-trivial renumbering a network is. I
transitioned the resnet at a public university from a /19 to a new /18, and it
took several months of planning to pull off.

90% of the space was assigned via DHCP, but that remaining 10% which was
statically assigned was a lot of work. Imagine tracking down every device
assigned an IP address, scattered across a college campus.

Our routing configuration was trivial (single super-net, single site, &c),
compacting an enterprise /8 would be an insane amount of work.

The long view isn't making a quick buck off v4, it's moving to v6 as quickly
as possible.

~~~
wmf
OTOH, legacy /8s may contain whole /16s that have never been used and thus can
be sold off without renumbering.

------
yread
An IPv4 address space walks into a bar. He says to the bartender, "A strong
CIDR please. I'm exhausted."

------
kbyers
Enough with the fear mongering headlines already. Yes, IANA allocated the last
5 /8's to the regional registries. IPv4 is not going anywhere anytime soon.

~~~
taylorbuley
People have been beating the same "IPv4's time is running out" drum since the
late 90's apparently

~~~
jedsmith
It isn't running out. It _is_ out.

I edited out _over_ and replaced it with _depleted_ to satisfy the concern
about the headline, but I didn't even like doing that. The cavalier attitude
that "nothing is really wrong, keep doing what we're doing" has been an
extensive contributor to the problematic situation we're in right now.

People have been beating the drum, as you say, because this day was foreseen
more than a decade ago. IPv6 has been in use for far longer than a decade. It
was anticipated that we'd be most of the way through the transition by now,
but we're not, partially due to "nothing's wrong" attitudes.

Edit: By _it_ in the first sentence, I meant IPv4's time (and was responding
to the parent's usage of _time running out_ ). I don't mean IPv4 addresses
have been exhausted, as I'm quite aware they're not. However, IPv4 has reached
the end of its usefulness, is the underlying root of my meaning.

~~~
axod
> "It isn't running out. It is out."

I think that's an unfair assessment.

When every ipv4 address is actually _used_ , it'll have run out. We're a long
long way away from that scenario though.

Vast ranges are "allocated" but "unused".

~~~
michaelbuckbee
That's actually something I've been having a hard time finding: What
percentage of IPv4 addresses are currently in use.

~~~
axod
Probably wouldn't take too long to check what % are pingable, which would give
you a lower bound.

~~~
jefe78
I'm willing to bet it would ;)

~~~
axod
By my calculations, you'd only need to spin up 50 or so amazon instances, and
they could cover the entire IP space in a day doing 1k pings/second each.

That's pretty doable.

~~~
zaphoyd
These guys have been mapping the IPv4 space via ping over time (since 2003)
and have an interactive browsable map that also shows blocks marked for
localhost/private networks/multicast, etc and which registrars control which
regions. It is pretty neat. Most recent data is Nov 2010. Since then the 11 /8
blocks that show as free have been allocated.

<http://www.isi.edu/ant/address/>

------
snipsnipsnip
<http://xkcd.com/195/> IPv4 space, 2006

------
BoppreH
Let me get some popcorn.

Any ideas of what will happen next? How far are we until some home users with
outdated ISPs be blocked from the internet?

~~~
rst
Nothing happens _immediately_ \--- the regional authorities still have some
free space left, although some are planning to get more stingy. (The
discussion here --- <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4_address_exhaustion>
\--- is at least a starting point for the curious. FWIW, the first that's
likely to really run out is APNIC, for the Asia/Pacific region, within the
next three to six months; the RIRs for Europe and North America expect to run
out in maybe a year or so, and those for Africa and Latin America expect a
couple of years' left of run room.)

Once congestion hits (a few months to a year), I think ISPs natting ipv4
clients, or demanding a premium price from anyone who wants a routable
address, is likely to happen somewhat more quickly than ipv6 to the home. But
that's based on no inside information...

~~~
tocomment
What I don't understand is what happens to website hosting? Will the cost of a
Linode go up? Will they be able to get IP addresses for new customers?

~~~
xearl
That's a question probably best asked directly to Linode (esp. if you are a
paying customer).

As a basis for making up your own mind: Linode has, at the moment, nine /20's
allocated. At 80% utilisation, that means roughly 30'000 IPv4 addresses.

------
noonespecial
Get used to 192.168.x.x y'all.

~~~
calloc
Pfft. 10.x.x.x for me.

<http://www.faqs.org/rfcs/rfc1918.html>

    
    
         10.0.0.0        -   10.255.255.255  (10/8 prefix)
         172.16.0.0      -   172.31.255.255  (172.16/12 prefix)
         192.168.0.0     -   192.168.255.255 (192.168/16 prefix)

~~~
noonespecial
Yeah, take your pick. It was kind of a joke but the reality is already
starting to make itself known. It used to be that every cable modem and many
DSLs got public addresses even if they weren't static. It's getting more and
more rare.

IPv4 won't die overnight, or even any time soon but there is likely to be an
uncomfortable transition period where it becomes difficult for people like me
who like to have static publics to get them cheaply, or at all.

~~~
danudey
I did a traceroute from my cable modem a few years ago, and found that my
traffic went from my internal network to my public-facing IPv4 address
(assigned to my router), then through several 10.x hops before finally hitting
the public internet again. Quite a sane use of resources, I thought.

------
sprachspiel
I wonder how long it will take until there is a market for IP addresses. I
suspect once such a market is in place IPv6 will not see widespread adoption,
since most IPv4 addresses are not really used.

~~~
wmf
The market is here:
<https://www.arin.net/resources/transfer_listing/index.html>

~~~
clistctrl
do you know if goldman sachs or some other financial entity has created an
investment vehicle that I can use to speculate in the market with?

~~~
wmf
I suspect you're joking, but the old timers _really_ don't like IP
speculation. It took them years to agree on the current pseudo-market because
they had to figure out how to keep out speculators.

------
pdx
I can't wait till everybody has an IPv6 modem/router. No more of this NAT hole
punching or long polling crap for pushing notifications.

~~~
calloc
Each person is supposed to get assigned a /64 from their ISP, which will be
then assigned to any downstream devices.

~~~
rcbuse
Then you get your bill from your isp, $5 extra per device.

~~~
mauriciob
I can seriously see this happening.

~~~
Lennie
I don't.

In the past you paid for the extra's because the ISP had to do extra work for
it.

But if the ISP sets everything up so all users have enough from the start.
Like a /48. You won't have to bother them.

------
eekfuh
I heard Egypt isn't using theirs.

(edit: i can feel the down-voting coming)

------
nuxi
There's still the complete 240.0.0.0/4 range left (class E), but unfortunately
it's probably too late to make use of them now.

------
yummybear
I suspect some workaround for IPv4 depletion will be created so ISPs wont have
to upgrade to IPv6.

~~~
xxpor
NAT?

~~~
theBobMcCormick
Most likely. My understanding is that some ISP's are already giving customers
RFC 1918 private addresses and NAT'ing them out to the Internet.

~~~
Lennie
As far as I know only for mobile.

------
squeed
A lot of the mobile telcos are going to be using DS-Lite or NAT64. What does
this mean? Well, NAT64 relies on modifying dns entries. So, take this as a
reminder to NEVER EVER hardcode pubic-facing ip addresses if possible!

~~~
iwwr
Always remember to shave your pubic-facing IP addresses.

------
Perihelion
Panic! At the RIR

