

Solar Panel Drops to $1 per Watt Milestone - cwan
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/research/4306443.html

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patio11
Is there an order form somewhere where I can pay someone $1,000 and get a kW
installed on my apartment this week?

(This somewhat cynical view of new technology announcements has generally
served me in good stead... with the exception of the HAL exoskeleton suit from
Cyberdyne, and yes, that is really what it is called. When I asked them about
commercial availability they asked if I had my credit card on me.)

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jimbokun
'Despite the buck-per-watt announcement, First Solar's share price plummeted
more than 20 percent on Wednesday, thanks to warnings from CEO Mike Ahearn
about the effect of the credit crisis on potential solar customers—as much as
10 to 15 percent of current orders might default. He recently told analysts in
a conference call that "as good as things look for the mid-term and beyond,
the short-term outlook for the solar industry in our view has never looked
more difficult."'

Sounds like a good time to buy and hold.

~~~
Eliezer
What do you think you know that other market participants don't?

You can't beat the stock market by buying companies that look like they'll do
well. <http://lesswrong.com/lw/yv/markets_are_antiinductive/>

~~~
streety
Wouldn't this only hold true in perfectly efficient markets? It also seems to
assume that every market participant is under the same influences. I don't
care how well my holdings are doing at the end of an accounting year but a
fund manager likely will.

~~~
rms
Try reading the linked post Eliezer linked to and see if you still have that
question

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streety
My comment was in response to having read the linked post.

Having just finished reading it for a second time I'm still not clear. Eliezer
does say, "Nobody believes the market is really "efficient" [...] but still,
the market does not leave hundred-dollar-bills on the table if everyone
believes in them." I'm possibly arguing against a position which has not been
given but I sense there is more than this and I can't identify it.

~~~
rms
OK, then I think the answer is that yes, of course it is possible for an
individual to beat the market. It just takes luck. It's nearly impossible for
you to know if you are winning because you are truly better at picking stocks
than the market or if it is just luck -- but most of the time, it's going to
be luck. It is a very rare investor that can consistently make much more than
the market as a value investor by buying and holding long.

~~~
streety
I can certainly agree with that. Not understanding that a choice can turn out
well despite being made for bad reasons and vice versa is a frequent source of
annoyance for me in others and, if I'm honest, myself.

Thanks for the follow up.

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olegkikin
These are manufacturing costs. Don't expect cheap solar panels.

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erik
"Even if the solar cell market were to grow at 56 percent a year for the next
10 years ... photovoltaics would still only account for about 2.5 percent of
global electricity"

Ray Kurzweil claims a similar doubling time, but thinks that solar will
approach 100% in ~16 years. I wonder who has better data.

[http://www.ted.com/talks/ray_kurzweil_announces_singularity_...](http://www.ted.com/talks/ray_kurzweil_announces_singularity_university.html)
(He talks about solar around 5:45)

Edit: Ah, fooled again by exponential grow. I did the math, and if 56% growth
held for for an additional 6 years, 2.5% would turn into 72%. Which is
surprisingly close to Kurzweil's predictions.

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onedognight
Last I looked, First Solar had an exclusive in the US with Solar City who in
turn will only rent/lease you the panels; i.e. you can't buy them.

