
Cost-Reduction Roadmap for Residential Solar PV, 2017–2030 - ph0rque
https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/70748.pdf?utm_source=NREL+News&utm_campaign=7b614cb917-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_807f77e7f4-7b614cb917-282463161
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philipkglass
In Germany, with labor costs and protections at least as high as the US, per-
watt installation costs for residential solar are a small fraction of what
they are in the US:

[https://www.technologyreview.com/s/509196/why-solar-
installa...](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/509196/why-solar-
installations-cost-more-in-the-us-than-in-germany/)

That report is from 2012, but soft (non-hardware) costs have remained
stubbornly high in the US. Even with the recent solar tariffs, all-in costs
for a kWh of residential solar in the US would be significantly lower than in
Germany, if the US could get soft costs down to German levels. The solar
resources of most of the continental US are that much better than Germany.

Australia too has much lower installed costs than the US. A former residential
solar company CEO blames American red tape:

[https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/how-to-halve-
th...](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/how-to-halve-the-cost-of-
residential-solar-in-the-us)

~~~
gok
> A former residential solar company CEO blames American red tape

I'm sure there's an army who would call that red tape "important safety
protection regulation."

It's telling that the bureaucrats who put this NREL report together to reduce
costs look at market maturation, business model integration, product
innovation and economies of scale, but--shockingly!--not reducing regulatory
overhead. Inventing new forms of photovoltaics is considered more realistic
than addressing rent seeking.

~~~
philipkglass
I think that Germany and Australia are pretty safe too. "The cost of safety"
is a legitimate thing to consider vs. developing nations, but not vs. other
developed nations that seem to get more bang for the buck.

~~~
gok
To be clear I meant that to be sarcastic :) Obviously the regulations around
US solar deployments are excessive at best and very likely the result of rent
seeking.

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michaelbuckbee
An interesting passage from the report:

"Product innovation could take a variety of forms, such as reduced PV racking
and mounting, preassembled PV, and low-cost PV roofing tiles. An integrated PV
and roofing product, in particular, could yield significant cost savings,
especially if the roof and PV system could be shipped and installed in unison.
Although integrated products have low market share today, it is plausible that
they could reach the mass market by 2030. For example, several companies have
recently introduced or are developing integrated PV products (CertainTeed
2017, GAF 2017, Tesla 2017). Product innovation along these lines could
influence the labor, supply chain, and structural BOS cost categories."

Which would seem to be good new for Tesla roofs, etc. I hadn't really
considered how expensive traditional rooftop solar is in terms of both sales
(convincing a homeowner that the should install panels) and installation
(people physically going out on the roof).

From the report: Panel (module) pricing, Admin Overhead, Sales and Marketing
and Physical Installation are all roughly equivalent. PV roofing tiles take a
big chunk out the latter 3 which seems really promising.

~~~
aidenn0
Also, currently solar roofing can be a bit of a tax-code hack (depending on
where you live). If you buy a new roof, and then put solar panels on top, only
the panels get green-energy tax benefits, but if the roof _is_ the panels,
then the total cost of the roof is used for calculating your tax benefits.

Larger installs will usually hit caps on the benefits before this matters, but
smaller installs in places with high caps can collect more.

[edit] Reading other comments, it's apparently also a permit-hack, as panels
need to be permitted separately from the roof (and in HOAs may be subject to
board approval).

~~~
toomuchtodo
> (and in HOAs may be subject to board approval)

Can't speak to other states, but Florida state law specifically overrides HOAs
when it relates to solar panels on your roof. They are inhibited from
preventing you from installing solar on your roof.

~~~
aidenn0
This isn't true everywhere, and even where it is, the HOA can make you
miserable before you finally get it through.

Federal law overrides HOAs with regards to antennas, but I've still seen it
take years to be able to put an antenna up.

------
allears
This report doesn't take into account the probable upcoming tariff on imported
solar panels.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Upcoming tariff is minor. Only adds a few months to the payback period.

[https://solarpowerrocks.com/affordable-solar/donald-
trumps-s...](https://solarpowerrocks.com/affordable-solar/donald-trumps-solar-
tariff-isnt-bad-homeowners-want-install-solar/)

"When the tariffs take effect, February 7th, 2018, they’ll add 30% to the
price of most imported solar panels (aka modules). That’s a pretty huge
markup, but because module cost is only a small part of the overall cost of
installing a system, the final price you’d pay to a solar installer will only
go up by a little.

In an earlier article, we wrote about a typical 5-kW solar system costing
$15,000, with solar modules representing about $1,750. A 30% increase in
module price would translate to $525 more for the whole installation, which
can be erased by about half a year of the electricity produced by the panels.
That’s not so bad!

After 2018, the tariff will “step down” by 5% per year, ending at 15% through
2021. So that $500 premium goes down to about $250, and goes away after 2021,
but you shouldn’t wait that long to install, because of the “other ITC”."

~~~
220V_USKettle
If labor is the most expensive line-item...

~~~
cma
Then an increase in the other costs will affect jobs, if the manufacturing
part isn't labor heavy.

