

Ask HN: Is the market efficient or not? - Ardit20

I suppose this is the defining question of our century. What do you guys think?
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rwolf
The EMH doesn't take in to account arbitrage risk
(<http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1292533>) among other
things.

Bonus questions: Is it so inefficient that models based on EMH should be
replaced? Is there a better assumption we can base finance on?

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tokenadult
The old saying attributed to John Maynard Keynes is that the market can remain
irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

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yan
I don't believe it is in the short term efficient nor that its self-
correcting, in the short term. In my opinion, the only way to reliably make
money is to have insider information. People day-trading with no non-public
information are trying to extract patterns from noise.

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thunk
A market's efficiency is inversely proportional to its complexity --
proportional, that is, to the average understanding of its participants.

