
Tuesday Shouldn't Change the Narrative - bdr
http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/11/07/tuesday-shouldnt-change-the-narrative/
======
internaut
I think this is only true if the election results are both fair (irrelevant
levels of cheating or human error) and close.

Should Trump win by a significant margin e.g. > 4%, that _should_ cause you to
ask whether systemic bias exists in polling. I think most of us in Europe
concluded something like this when Brexit occurred. Some people were claiming
the polling was accurate but the reporting was inaccurate, however when I
doubled checked the polling I could see no discrepancy. Most of that weeks
polls were very wrong and so were the bookmakers, the people with strong
incentives to discern truth from bullshit.

Take a look:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Standard_polling_on_EU_membership)

It is really remarkable. Internet polls are accurate?!! Who knew! Depending on
your reasons for believing in a significant prejudice in polling, that could
indeed change the narrative.

