

Steady decline in burglaries because "Everybody has everything now" - mhb
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88074698

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pg
I've noticed this too. I think the decline has been going on longer than 30
years. It's because stuff isn't valuable anymore.

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Alex3917
As the value of stuff accelerates exponentially toward zero, the only thing
that matters is social status. I suspect that in the future most burglaries
will fall into one of two categories:

A) The object being stolen confers social status (e.g. iPhone)

B) The act of stealing confers social status in the individual's social circle

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BrandonM
In most non-hacker circles, an iPhone is just another cell phone, except that
it is advertised so much that many are getting annoyed with it. ("Okay, I get
it, it's a phone with a browser and it plays music....") For that reason, the
idea that an iPhone confers social status really jumps out at me, because it
just doesn't seem true.

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far33d
THe BART police in SF suggest you not wear white earphones because it might
get you robbed. This implies that there's still quite a bit of status
associated w/ iPods and iPhones.

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BrandonM
Does it have to imply status, or simply that it's easy to sell them quickly on
craigslist? I'm not saying an iPod or iPhone isn't the best solution for many
people, just that I don't really think of them as conferring status in the
same way that, say, a cell (car) phone did 10 years ago, or a Ferrari does
today.

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jedberg
What about the fact that it is far easier to steal your credit card/identity
and then just buy the stuff one wants, instead of trying to find someone with
the stuff you want and then stealing it.

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ojbyrne
Not one mention of the most likely cause, which is demographics. Break-ins are
a young person's game, the number of young people have declined.

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sohail
Freakonomics has an interesting perspective: It is due to the legalization of
abortion. The authors do make a good case for it. I tend to lean towards this
explanation which amounts to less poor young people.

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Tichy
That was for crime in general, though. The article here mentioned that the
statistics for other crimes were different from burglary.

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davidw
More here:

[http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2008/03...](http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2008/03/why-
have-burgla.html)

~~~
hernan7
Great link, thanks.

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mynameishere
Burglaries per:

    
    
     	United Kingdom:   	13.8321 per 1,000 people 
    
    	United States:   	7.09996 per 1,000 people
    

Murders per:

    
    
            United States:          0.042802 per 1,000 people
    
     	United Kingdom:   	0.0140633 per 1,000 people
    

My suggestion: The wide availability of guns makes murder easier in the United
States (for obvious reasons) and Burglary harder (...since so many homeowners
have guns, and shooting burglars is generally legal, burglars tend to avoid
the practice.)

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mhb
Or maybe window glass is thicker in the UK or one of another of the zillion
other possible explanations for this statistic.

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mynameishere
Heck, NPR is basing their theory on anecdotes from an ex-con. At least I'm
putting up some numbers. Obviously, statistics like the above are a result of
extremely complex systems. I tried to compare two countries with similar
population make-ups, similar economies, similar legal traditions, etc, but you
can only remove so many factors. Actual experimentation in social science, by
contrast, tends to result in unholy bloodbaths.

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ph0rque
I read a 365tomorrows story that talked about how burglaries of the future
will involve the burglars dumping trash in your residence, instead of stealing
something.

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cellis
Fear not, as one group of criminals falls, another rises. These new ones don't
know how to pick a (physical) lock, but they sure as hell are taking in some
serious cash via identity theft.

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ilamont
I can think of a lot of other reasons why burglaries have declined, such as
improved street policing and the sharp rise in other types of crime linked to
drug use, such as identity theft.

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ojbyrne
Oh, and just one counterexample to the "Everybody has everything now.":

Canon 1Ds Mark III - 21 megapixels, full frame sensor, $8k.

I lust for it, but don't own one.

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pmjordan
But how big is the black market for one of those?

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huherto
And how lucky do you have to be to steal one of those? Will you know it when
you see it?

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optimal
What about the availability of credit? It's probably easier to buy the big TV
on credit now than to steal it.

