
Apple Plus – brand versus subscription - graeme
https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2019/4/4/apple-plus-brand-versus-subscription
======
_bxg1
> More interesting: Apple’s evolving brand promise. The old Apple promise was
> that you don't have to worry if the tech works. The new promise is you don't
> have to worry if the tech is scamming you. Everything Apple showed was about
> curation, safety and trust. No tracking, no scammy ads, no loot boxes, no
> weird credit card charges. And Oprah.

This is an extremely good point. I'm a technical person, I love open
technologies, but I've invested in Apple devices because right now we have no
choice but to put trust in one major tech company or another, and Apple is the
only one I have an iota of trust in not to screw me over. They're smartly
capitalizing on a culture shift of tech-skepticism, and I'm not ashamed to say
that that sales pitch works on me. Their competitors would be wise to take
notice.

~~~
m463
Unfortunately, they're playing both sides of the game.

If Apple would let you use their products anonymously, that would be a clear
indicator they were on the side of privacy.

a couple pointed questions:

\- do you know what apps on your iphone are doing? can you find out?

\- do you know who they contact?

\- do you know what technologies they are using? deep linking? ibeacons?

\- can you firewall your apps?

~~~
_bxg1
Nobody can totally prevent third-party apps from recording your interactions
with them, though Apple has made some effort
([https://techcrunch.com/2019/02/07/apple-glassbox-
apps/](https://techcrunch.com/2019/02/07/apple-glassbox-apps/)). Apple also
strongly enforces that third-party apps have to gracefully degrade when
individual permissions are denied. So that a delivery app, for example, can't
strong-arm you into enabling location services by refusing to work otherwise.

All of Apple's first-party services give detailed breakdowns of what
information Apple receives before it does so. Other than privately-stored
iCloud data, they send virtually zero non-anonymized data to Apple. And as
much as possible - especially with things like Maps - they keep data local to
your device.

So no, I don't always know who third-party apps are contacting, because nobody
can. But I do know (and have control over) every interaction they have with
the rest of my device and data. For first-party apps, I do know everyone they
contact and with what information, and it's kept to a reasonable minimum.

~~~
m463
> because nobody can

On my apple desktop, little snitch does tell me this information.

I think it would be totally reasonable to give interested users visibility
and/or control over this sort of thing on their phone.

~~~
_bxg1
As mentioned in another comment, any number of VPN services can accomplish
this (though of course VPNs, like any software that records and modifies your
traffic, pose a security risk themselves).

------
madrox
I led the build of an SVOD service at a large media company that was also
mentioned in this article. Negotiating with Apple at the time to get our
service approved, and then negotiating with them further on integration with
the TV app, it was clear their ambition was be a media company by the
concessions they wanted. This was years ago, mind you.

Which leads me to the other part of Apple's brand: they will make your life
hell if you play in a space they deem important to their survival. Any
developer on the app store knows this.

We're entering a world where it will be very, very difficult to survive as a
third party in an ecosystem, and the argument will be "our brand." For any
success you have, 30% of your gross revenue is going to help finance a
potential future competitor. We have to double down on mobile web in the next
decade if we want any semblance of competition in media.

~~~
scarface74
This is a very one sided story. We have an existence proof of there being
literally dozens of video on demand apps on iOS and tvOS - many of which don’t
allow people to subscribe within the app.

There are also a half dozen streaming music services.

------
graeme
Regarding stickiness. Apple introduced the following:

* News+

* Apple card

* Apple Arcade

* And they already have Apple music

Am leaving TV out of this list for now. Most people may not want a particular
service. But it’s highly likely a good chunk of apple customers will want at
least one or two of them.

And then that becomes a factor at switching time. For instance, I’ve
considered Android in the past. What has always stopped me are two thoughts:
‘What about privacy?” and “what about imessage?”

Note that these don’t need to be sticking points _for you_. I’m saying they’re
sticking pointed _for many_. Now, apple is adding three new service sticking
points, to add to their music sticking point.

People will think things like “I really like reading Apple News everyday/I
like getting the WSJ”. “Those games are so fun for my kids” “Ugh, I’d have to
get a new credit card if I switch phones?’

Apple already has a strong ecosystem effect, especially in the US. These will
add to it. The apple watch and airpods are another stickiness factor that’s
growing rapidly as well.

I left off TV: I’m not sure how it adds to stickiness. Apple is making it
widely available on third party devices. So you can still get a show you want
even with no apple hardware. Will there be some tie in to apple hardware
announced when the service launches? Or some kind of bundle price that itself
adds stickiness? Unclear, the strategy behind the TV service is still a bit
opaque.

Personally, I’m excited for Apple Arcade. Don’t know how the games will be
yet, but it has potential and will be a nice complement to having a nintendo
switch. News in Canada is....ok, though it’s unclear to me how much I’m
getting with paid vs the free version and I may not keep it. Depends how much
value I get from the wsj.

~~~
eeeeeeeeeeeee
I disagree with those being sticky. I have a fleet of Apple devices and
iMessage and FaceTime are absolutely sticky but they just don’t compare to
what Apple introduced at the recent event, which I think was all pretty weak.

I was interested in News, because of the WSJ, but it’s not even the full
Journal.

I’m still amazed Apple is not doing anything about robocalls. This is an area
where software can improve the situation, and I do believe this is related to
privacy.

And instead we get the latest iOS with...more Animoji.

~~~
graeme
>I was interested in News, because of the WSJ, but it’s not even the full
Journal.

There was a lot of back and forth on this, but I think it is the full journal.
Is there a section that’s supposed to be excluded? You can go to an article,
hit share, and open it in apple news to test.

I didn’t mean these things will be _as_ sticky as imessage and face time. Just
that they are factors that expand the ecosystem for some users. Apple news has
been very popular in the US, so news+ will probably be a no brainer for _some_
people. If done well, games will be sticky for a ton of people, and so on.

The question isn’t “would I use that?” It’s whether others would.

~~~
eeeeeeeeeeeee
Yep I’m definitely considering others, not only myself, as best as I can. But
I don’t see these things being attractive to even non-technical users. Or not
enough of reasons to keep them on the Apple ecosystem. It seems like basically
up-sells to me to increase revenue off the existing customer base because they
know they cannot keep increasing iPhone sales YoY.

I do think News is probably the best bet. It’s something I’ve wanted for a
while because not many people are going to pay 5-10/month for numerous news
sources that are often regurgitating the same news. But I doubt it would keep
me on Apple. And isn’t this something that could eventually easily be
replicated by others?

~~~
graeme
Regular apple news has been wildly popular though....even without the paid
version it’s a sticking point for people whp use it frequently.

I’m not in the US, so I won’t have the card, but that got the most interest
post event by far. As for games, if they’re good I think it will be huge with
families. Parents will buy for their kids. And if some good games are
exclusive it will be a sticking point for sure. I’m almost certainly signing
up. I only game with a nintendo switch currently, but the Apple games look
similar: fun, lightweight indie games I can play in spare time.

------
AJRF
I think this was actually a surprisingly weak showcase from Apple. Something
in the TV space with a bit of bite at Netflix would have shown confidence in
themselves, a new avenue for creativity that consumers are so engrossed with
(i.e new Netflix shows and films are in themselves, events. People talk about
the newest Netflix show like a new product release).

Instead they showed a credit card, that look's nice, but I fail to see how Ben
think's that reduces churn (credit cards aren't sticky, incentives are - no
one will buy a new phone because they're middle of the road rewards are there)
and then a subscription that would have been a footnote in a Google or Samsung
keynote. Those subscriptions for news (and even more so for Games) are non-
events. They are so boring, so anti-sticky that they made me think this whole
thing was actually a failure - and Apple shouldn't have made a song and dance
of it and just talked about during the iPhone keynote.

~~~
scarface74
_Instead they showed a credit card, that look 's nice, but I fail to see how
Ben think's that reduces churn (credit cards aren't sticky, incentives are -
no one will buy a new phone because they're middle of the road rewards are
there)_

You just contradicted yourself. “Stickiness” by definition is not about people
getting “new” phones it’s about people staying in the ecosystem and spending
more. The whole idea behind services is to get people spending more money in
the ecosystem since they aren’t buying new phones as frequently.

The credit card is basically useless without the phone. If you track your
spending with the phone, you’re less likely to leave and you get simple cash
back with it that goes into your Apple Pay account.

Subscriptions for games are really a big deal. The whole ecosystem for games
is slimy with ads and in app purchases of gems and loot boxes. Games that are
bundle with the subscription are curated. If you have kids, signing up for a
games subscription and handing them a new $329 iPad or hand me down iPhone is
a no brainer. AppleTV+ won’t be a big deal, but get a subscription to Disney+
when it comes out and you have the perfect item to keep them busy.

I would get Apple News just for one of two magazines that I care about.

~~~
mgreg
The subscription based services (News, Games) are an important step forward
but don't do enough to change things meaningfully for game developers and news
publishers. On the plus side Apple relieves the burden of managing an ad
ecosystem and the slimy feeling of selling out customers' attention to the
highest bidder.

On the minus side the publishers and developers are still compensated by the
amount of time users spend in their articles/games so the incentive is still
to develop addictive and time hogging services or click bait. To be fair this
is a difficult problem as there's not an objective measure for quality that
compensation could be based on. Perhaps more thought could have gone into this
though.

~~~
scarface74
We don’t know how the game publishers are compensated. We do know that Apple
is paying some game developers up front and funding games. That reduces the
risk of an indy developer a lot.

Even if the game is addictive, at least it isn’t tracking you or trying to
take advantage of you financially.

~~~
b_tterc_p
Do we know that? That seems astounding to me. This is a difficult industry
with high risk where they’re primarily just competing with their own free apps
for what will probably be cannibalizing user time.

~~~
scarface74
There is a reason none of the big companies are on board. It takes a lot for
an indy developer to break through the noise.

[https://venturebeat.com/2019/03/25/apple-will-fund-
exclusive...](https://venturebeat.com/2019/03/25/apple-will-fund-exclusives-
for-apple-arcade-game-subscription/)

------
paultopia
Hmm. Re: _" Apple’s evolving brand promise. The old Apple promise was that you
don't have to worry if the tech works. The new promise is you don't have to
worry if the tech is scamming you. Everything Apple showed was about curation,
safety and trust. No tracking, no scammy ads, no loot boxes, no weird credit
card charges."_

The evolving brand promise thing seems right to me as a general principle, but
it doesn't seem either new or particularly applicable to these services. Apple
has always had a major competitive advantage in being relatively free of scams
and attacks---much less malware than windows, zero OEM-installed garbage
compared to windows or android, SIP and App Store curation, etc. etc. But I'm
not sure how that point applies to the rollout of services that are competing
with established and legitimate players. Nobody's going to choose Apple over
Netflix or Steam or the like on the theory that Netflix/Steam is "scammy."

~~~
bunnycorn
> Nobody's going to choose Apple over Netflix or Steam or the like on the
> theory that Netflix/Steam is "scammy."

No.

In the same way people won't be choosing Netflix over HBO because HBO is
scammy.

The whole article doesn't make any sense.

When you buy a computer or a phone, you buy just one and that's it, having
more than a computer or phone doesn't make much sense as it's worse than
having only one. So Apple needs to make a decidedly (for the costumer) better
product.

While in art/entertainment, there's no "better", people consume the content
they want, and can have more than one subscription.

You can have Netflix and Apple and HBO and many others, or none at all.

The only thing Apple needs is to produce content good enough that people are
willing to spend the mensality.

------
clay_the_ripper
It seems really weird to me that with services their new “thing”, why they
won’t allow me to back up my computer to iCloud. Not iCloud Drive, I mean a
time machine backup in the cloud that I could restore an entire computer from
with migration assistant.

Maybe they can’t figure out a way for it to be cost effective? It just seems
word to me you can do this with your iphone but not a computer.

~~~
votepaunchy
macOS apps’ local data is synchronized and can be versioned in iCloud
containers. Plus Documents and Desktop are synchronized as legacy dumping
grounds for files. Actual app installations are not backed up on either
system, though iOS does reinstall on restore. It isn’t necessary to backup the
entire drive.

------
Despegar
While I agree that's the new brand message, I don't think that necessarily
means that Apple's TV content is only going to be family oriented. Some of the
clips they showed in the video don't look like it would be appropriate for
kids.

They were negotiating to get a violent TV show according to CNBC [1]. And
Apple's iTunes store has already sold movies and TV shows that were for mature
audiences, so I doubt they're going to place any restrictions on what kind of
content they're going to buy.

[1] [https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/06/apple-pursuing-violent-
israe...](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/06/apple-pursuing-violent-israeli-show-
nevelot-richard-gere-to-star.html)

~~~
tinus_hn
I was surprised to even spot someone smoking a cigarette!

------
screye
I sometimes feel like Government should mandate that subscription expenses be
reported and advertised in strictly annual costs.

I've meet too many people who feel like paying $100 for a service annually is
too much, but $10 a month is acceptable. These subscription fees add up, often
without users ever realizing.

------
shittyadmin
Google should just kill the YouTube app for iOS and see how long this
exclusive bullshit lasts.

~~~
scarface74
So Google is both going to continue paying Apple a reported $12 billion a year
to be the default search engine on iOS and lose more than half of its audience
in the US and lose most of its more affluent audience?

