

Apple Is Doomed - relation
http://daringfireball.net/linked/2012/11/09/sobotta

======
bitcartel
Skip the punditry and read the original article here:

[http://readwrite.com/2012/11/08/whats-it-like-to-work-for-
ti...](http://readwrite.com/2012/11/08/whats-it-like-to-work-for-tim-cook-a-
former-sales-exec-dishes)

~~~
JuDue
He links to the original article at the very begining.

And you mean, skip the analysis and read the punditry?

------
fjorder
The truth probably lies somewhere in between what the flaming fanboy and
Mr.Disgruntled are saying.

Apple seems to make the most money when they open up a new market and lock out
the competition for a long period of time, as they did with the iPod. The
iPhone's dominance was challenged quicker than the iPod's, and the iPad's
quicker still. If you consider 7" tablets their own market, Apple is actually
late to the party. Why are other manufacturers catching up quicker or even
taking the lead? _They all remember the iPod._

So what does this mean for Apple? The profits aren't going to come as easy as
they did before because the competition moves a lot quicker than they used to.
If Apple opens up a new market they're going to face competition in it almost
immediately because the competition knows they have to move _fast_ and is
capable of doing so. No more decades of dominance and easy-money. Does that
mean Apple is doomed? Absolutely not. Apple is still wildly profitable even
though they are no longer completely dominant in even one market they make
products for. Their production chain is lean enough that they _can_ compete in
markets dominated by commodity pricing. That focus on production efficiency is
not going to change under Tim Cook. Quite the opposite!

There does seem to be evidence that we'll see an extended period of decline
for Apple under Cook though. In the last couple years Apple has released
several half-baked products and polish seems to be declining. e.g. OSX Lion
and Mountain Lion have both had an aberrant number of bugs, even by the
standards of other OS's. Jobs, unlike what many people think, was never an
idea man. His value was in knowing who to copy and when to say "No", and Cook
needed to say no to things like Apple Maps, or at least give them more time to
bake. Even if Cook has truly horrible tech instincts it will probably take a
very long time for Apple to decline to the point of losing money. Despite how
far MS fell in some people's eyes, they never failed to turn a profit. Apple
is also sitting on such a gargantuan pile of cash that they could lose money
hand-over-fist for decades before running into real trouble.

Apple might not continue to be the leading juggernaut it's been for the last
decade, but they're in no danger of going out of business.

~~~
JuDue
"Apple seems to make the most money when they open up a new market and lock
out the competition for a long period of time"

They are doing quite well on PCs in the modern era.

~~~
beloch
[http://www.trustedreviews.com/news/ios-devices-account-
for-7...](http://www.trustedreviews.com/news/ios-devices-account-
for-76-percent-of-apple-revenue)

iTunes is probably a significant chunk of the remaining quarter.

------
sidcool
Another blog spelling doom for Apple. A few months back there was one similar
for Google, then there was the Microsoft one. I must say 'Blogosphere is
Doomed'

EDIT - I was close to reporting the story, but then even though trite, it's an
opinion.

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timeshifter
Apple is doomed because they're not focusing on desktop computers? Um.....
_what_?

Alternately: Apple is ignoring desktop computers because _the market is mobile
and laptops_ , and really it's just corporations and enthusiasts that will go
out of their way for a desktop... ya know, the kinds of people that aren't
going to buy a Mac anyway. So why _should_ Apple focus on a market that
they're making obselete?

~~~
JuDue
They're not exactly failing at making profitable and successful desktop
machines.

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cmccabe
$COMPANY is doomed because they're ignoring $BUZZWORD. It's sort of like
$INANE_ANALOGY.

I give them 3 months, tops.

