
A First Try at ROI: Ranking 4,500 Colleges [pdf] - SQL2219
https://1gyhoq479ufd3yna29x7ubjn-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/College_ROI.pdf
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cowpig
So apparently this is using data from the Dept of Education, but I wasn't able
to find anything about their methodology on the site that the paper
referenced[1] (footnote #22 says that's the data they're using).

I am curious to know: how are earnings calculated? Are these numbers coming
from voluntary surveys or something more reliable?

In any case, this data is kind of interesting but it's certainly not anything
that would lead me to conclude that college is worth it. At the very least,
I'd want to see some attempt to control for what I'd assume are the most
powerful confounding variables:

* controlling for industry (in which industries to college grads make more than non-attendees?)

* controlling for socioeconomic background (do rich kids who don't go to school make less than those who do?)

* and controlling for opportunity (do students who are accepted into top schools but choose not to go make as much money as those who do?)

[1]
[https://collegescorecard.ed.gov/data/](https://collegescorecard.ed.gov/data/)

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lopmotr
While it's not perfect, it's surely far superior to counting the number of
citations of research papers published by the academic staff, who might not
even be teachers. Isn't that roughly how the popular rankings which
prospective students use to compare universities work?

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stazz1
Because number of citations equates to success how again? The university
obsession with number of citations is just as dubious as GDP

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f2000
A few potential issues I see:

1) Adjustments for cost of living geographic distribution of a college's
graduates when earnings is measured. This distribution would not be the same
for all colleges. E.g. Texas vs California - 100K/year in SF is not the same
standard of living as 100K in Dallas.

2) Is there any adjustment for the fact that for some colleges a high
percentage of 4 year degree holders go on to earn a graduate level degree.
That could certainly be the case for the Pharmacy schools where I'd bet that
many BS graduates go on to earn a Doctor of Pharmacy. You would end up
comparing the NPV of a pharmacy degree with a BS from say CSU, San Jose.

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theparanoid
NPV is more sensitive to major than college. A Berkeley liberal arts degree
has lower lifetime earnings than a Cal State nursing degree.

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awat
This is an important point. Also this list by it’s very nature favors schools
with less overall majors and more majors of a technical nature. Not sure how
useful this data really is considering the number of variables.

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thaumasiotes
> Also this list by it’s very nature favors schools with less overall majors
> and more majors of a technical nature.

That's true, but if your model of using the list is "someone is looking for
advice on how to make money by going to college", it is a desirable feature.
This person doesn't know what they want to do, and funneling them to a school
with only good options will guard them against choosing a bad major later,
when they've stopped looking at the list. Adjusting ROI to major availability
would make the list less accurate.

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clintonb
Here is a link to a summary, and a tool to search for colleges:
[https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-
reports/collegeroi/](https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/collegeroi/)

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clairity
or just download the data table in csv format since they wanna load all kinds
of social media tracking crap along with the tool:
[https://cewgeorgetown.github.io/collegeROI/ROIforWeb.csv](https://cewgeorgetown.github.io/collegeROI/ROIforWeb.csv)

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kbenson
Okay, what I'm getting from this is that pharmacists make lots of money, and
it's a really good bang-for-your-buck proposition.

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exclusiv
It's like 6 years to get a degree that AI should replace though.

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meesles
Not to undervalue a pharmacist's other functions, but you don't really need
AI... you just need a bot to pull orders off a shelf and file online insurance
forms.

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exclusiv
I'm thinking more for smart insight into possible drug interactions. Since
they may not know all the drugs you are on. My parents had doctors that both
prescribed things and neither we're aware of it. So if you just pull orders
you are doing the bulk of the busy work but not fully replacing the
pharmacist.

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ummonk
Good stuff. It should be noted though that it's not really calculating NPV for
the students themselves, as it can't measure what the students' earnings would
have been had they not gone to college (or gone to a different college). Much
of the difference in measured NPV across colleges will be due to the quality
of students, not the quality of education / opportunities provided by the
college.

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WoodenChair
One problem with this analysis is that it mixes the numbers for schools that
have fairly siloed online and traditional programs. For instance, one school I
am associated with is listed as having an average start age of 27. However, it
has completely separate online and traditional degree programs. The average
start age is 18 in the traditional program and probably in the 30s in the
online program. This averages to 27, but I imagine the ROI is quite different
for the traditional program versus the online program. Traditional students
take no online classes there.

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asdff
There are so many potential confounding variables that these sort of
comparisons are meaningless. A big one would be your confidence. Being able to
walk up to a recruiters table, feel comfortable, and make an impression could
get you your first internship and snowball your career from that brief moment.
Or making friends with a professor who encourages you to make a collaboration
with someone who one day hires you, or at the least inspires you.

The best thing a college applicant can do to better their odds is to make sure
they are going to a school where these types of events happen regularly. It
doesn't have to be berkeley; most state universities are just as excellent
even if us news says otherwise.

Are professors publishing/going to conferences/collaborating with the
field/spinning off companies? How many companies are present at career fairs?
Would you be able to do internships nearby? Does the department have a seminar
series with speakers from around the country? Do you have many opportunities
to do independent projects or research? Would you have a chance to do outside
research at another local institution? Are upper division classes covering
fundamentals as well as new technology, or has the course been the same for 25
years? These are questions potential students should be asking if they are
looking to maximize ROI, and that is ROI beyond just getting a healthcare
related degree and collecting the same 80k with the same title from when you
were hired to when you retire.

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HarryHirsch
That's how it ought to be, but in practice at your average college the best-
paying major is the nursing degree. That tells volumes about how far the
deindustrialization of the country has gone.

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tyingq
Was expecting to see Georgia Tech. $12k/year tuition for in-state, but
typically top 10 rated for their BSCS degree program.

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rootusrootus
They rank pretty well, #27. 1.7M 40-year NPV.

I wonder if it is possible to run a similar calculation for graduate degrees.
I'd like to see it for OMSCS. Probably need a lot more history before that
becomes plausible.

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bloaf
I'm surprised "free" colleges don't dominate the short term ROI.

[https://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/paying-for-
co...](https://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/paying-for-
college/slideshows/12-tuition-free-colleges)

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wayfromeast
You would think the various military academies would be pretty high on the
list with free tuition and an officer paycheck immediately following
graduation.

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IC4RUS
This isn't necessarily a problem with the analysis, but one thing to keep in
mind that the type of student that a college accepts might have a large
influence over their graduates income.

So, it's difficult to say whether or not selective schools (ivy league and
whatnot) actually prepare students better, or if they just tend to admit
people who have high earnings potential in the first place.

Might sound like a nitpick, but it's pretty relevant if you're comparing a
low-cost public school to a selective private one.

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penetrator
I should've gone to The Creative Circus, GA instead of Georgia Tech

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m0zg
What's with the super-high graduation rates for supposedly "hard" colleges
like MIT and Yale? In a "hard" college I went to the graduation rate was _at
best_ two thirds.

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sokoloff
MIT graduate here. It’s a hard school to get into. It’s not especially hard to
graduate from (given that you were admitted), as long as you’re willing to
grind out the work.

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m0zg
That's the thing though, few people are willing to "grind out the work" over
any extended period of time.

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kbenson
Well, being notoriously hard to get into, to the point that you have had to
grind out the work/studying and also be talented to get in, probably means
just keep on doing what you were.

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vishalzone2002
Is there a way to get the table as csv? This data is worth some charts and
analysis.

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philshem
[https://collegescorecard.ed.gov/data/](https://collegescorecard.ed.gov/data/)

