
Ask HN: How to kill Facebook? - nekopa
So I made a bet with a friend 2 years ago that Facebook would go the way of MySpace by 2018. Not that I thought it <i>should</i>, more that I thought it would.<p>Now it seems I may lose $5, Is there any way to speed Facebook&#x27;s demise? And, as a side note, now that Zuckerberg has pledged a lot of Facebook&#x27;s value to the good of humanity should I still try to work towards this goal?<p>Pros&#x2F;cons And strategies welcome
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CyberFonic
2 years is a very loooong time! Several things that are working in your
favour:

1\. Facebook makes revenue from advertising. People are being increasingly
turned off by advertising. As people close accounts, the management gets
worried and pushes advertising even more. Advertisers buy
eyeballs/clicks/impressions - whatever - it's all about the numbers. Less
users, means less value, hence less revenue to FB.

2\. The cool kids don't use what they parents and grandparents use. So as the
"oldies" join, the youngsters drop off. But the oldies don't like advertising
either ...

3\. FB does NOT pay dividends. So why would you buy shares other than to sell
at a profit? Which sooner or later ends up being a re-run of the Tulip Bulb
craze. As soon as there are no buyers to be found at a particular price point,
the prices collapse and increasing numbers of people try to offload which then
pushes prices further down.

Caveat: I'm an engineer not a stock broker nor an accountant, the following is
my back of the envelope calcs.

4\. If FB responds to market pressure and decides to pay a dividend, then
based on current revenues of $3b and 2.74b shares, you could expect a dividend
around 50c which, looking WPP Holdings 2014 financials for comparison (eps 85,
div 38, sp 1400), would have a FB share price approx $20 - compare this to
currently at $105 ($38 at IPO).

Based on the above, the users and investors will bring about the demise you
need to safeguard your bet.

BTW: Did you see the 1983 movie "Trading Places" with Eddie Murphy and Dan
Aykroyd?

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lakeeffect
I'm on the bus today and the lady behind me is talking to another about
facebook and how she finds it kind of scary that they are suggesting friends
to her that she knows and she hasn't given them any information about where
she went to school. Then when the wonderment and fear of friends of friends
didn't catch, she pivots to I hate facebook. The reason being that its such a
time sink.

MySpace was started so the guys could spam users with Viagra ads and diet
pills, seriously.

Facebook is keeping closer to its mission which is to let people find and
view/share the lives of their dare I say friends.

I strangely would love you to win your five bucks. However Facebook's cash
position and willingness to purchase everything that poses a threat isn't
changing. It's bizarre to me the number of people I know who are done with
facebook. Closed up account. I don't have facebook. I have instagram.

