
Will There Be a Draft? Young People Worry After Military Strike - vo2maxer
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/us/military-draft-world-war-3.html
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chriselles
Absolutely not.

Combat mass is no longer about raw human numbers.

Plus nomenclature and terminology around war is backwards and confusing.

Let me explain.

Conventional conflicts(WW1, WW2, Korea, Iran-Iraq 80-89, etc) requiring big
human numbers are incredibly and increasingly uncommon.

Unconventional conflicts(Iran-US, 40+ yearS and counting) requiring
fewer/better trained humans are incredibly and increasingly common.

This is an ongoing unconventional war entering its 5th decade with roots
extending back 7 decades(Mossadegh coup in 1953 Iran) and incongruent
ideological conflict extending back millenia.

And even IF there were a draft, the vast majority of fighting aged men and
women are dangerously unsuitable for military service due to very poor average
health and fitness.

IF there was a draft, the overwhelming majority would fail to meet minimum
entry health & fitness criteria.

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pyuser583
To get it out of the way: there isn’t going to be a draft.

Nevertheless, maybe there should be.

Not mass enlistment for large scale combat, but drafting people who have
critical technical skills should be considered.

The current approach of filling gaps in technical knowledge with contractors
is toxic.

If people have rare, technical knowledge necessary to safeguard our country,
they should be required to be in the reserves.

I believe Switzerland has a system where citizens hold a role in the military
analogous to the civilian position.

That’s a great freaking idea.

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zamadatix
So the pay goes down, the work becomes forced, and non-military technology
innovation continues to pay the same high rate as before and you think this
would be an efficiency gain? The government can't just will cheaper work into
existence by saying it, everything has its cost eventually.

If your goal is to cut costs then just lower budgets. If your goal is to get
people because nobody wants to then maybe you shouldn't be at war since nobody
wants to support it.

And yes, you're civilian skills are considered for your role in most any
military. Most places just don't have mandatory service.

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chriselles
I’m not a big fan of mandatory service.

But the 5 Eyes militaries don’t do a very good job of leveraging civilian
skillsets of their Reserve/National Guard soldiers, sailors, and airmen.

We talk about it all the time, and we try, but we haven’t been consistently
successful.

A few halo casts to brag about?

Absolutely.

But consistently?

Nope.

Tons of latent intellectual and SME value waiting to be captured and focused.

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simonblack
Of course there will be. "It may not happen overnight, but it will happen."

Wars of choice (i.e. most US wars) can be turned on and off when required.
Those can be waged without needing to use the draft.

Other wars, that continue with a determined opponent (Vietnamese War, for
example), can not be turned off unilaterally and must proceed till a defeat or
victory.

Those wars will always require a draft if "the war situation has developed not
necessarily to [the US's] advantage". (Paraphrasing Hirohito's Speech
regarding Japan's surrender.)

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bch132
No

