
Technological progress not slow or steady, but superexponential - olalonde
http://www.santafe.edu/news/item/technology-progress-superexponential/
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simonh
I wonder to what extent this is a case of a technology platform (integrated
circuit density) improving at an exponential rate, but then further
technologies built on top of that (e.g efficiency of computational algorithms)
are are themselves improving exponentially. The exponential rates multiply to
give a super-exponential rate in aggregate.

We're definitely still on the fast part of the curve, but I am one of those
that thinks inevitably the rate of advancement in some and eventually all of
these technologies will subside. There's nothing magical or special about IT.
All technologies eventually mature, but the world will be a very different
place than it was before the IT revolution by the time that happens. In fact,
it already is.

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finnw
FWIW multiplying two exponential functions together gives you another
exponential function (not a superexponential one.)

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6ren
In <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near>, Ray Kurzweil also
claims that growth is not only exponential (e.g. doubling every _x_ years),
but that this rate is itself increasing - which I guess is _superexponential_.

It's curious that Moore's Law (<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law>)
seems to be just plain ol' exponential. That is, doubling the number of
transistors on a chip every 2 years. That rate itself hasn't increased; it's
still 2 years, 47 years on. (BTW the 18 month figure is related, see link).
Why isn't Moore's Law superexponential?

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valisystem
Quick guess, Moore's law applies for capacity of silicon industry to improve
storage and processing of one production line.

If you include the increasing number of production lines, the total number of
simultaneously connected computers, capacity of producing software that solves
complex problems and the many others factors that are included in the global
processing power and relevancy of calculus, you might explain this super
exponential growth.

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radarsat1
Article: _Gonzales says this research suggests an accelerating rate of
improvement in technology... If these trends continue, he says, “in some ways
things will continue to get better. In that sense it is a hopeful paper.”_

Abstract: _In contrast, one cannot reject the hypothesis of superexponential
growth with decreasing doubling times. This raises questions about whether
past trends in the improvement of information technology are sustainable._

These seem to be two different conclusions, don't they?

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backrecord
I'd be interested to see a chart of something trying to more directly measure
"standard of living" alongside "information storage per unit volume,
communications bandwidth, and computation speed". I also wonder if the
relationship will change in the future. I guess standard of living depends on
more than just technological change though, in particular government policy.

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jrmg
I wonder how the number of people working on progressing technology affects
this - i.e., crudely, what (rate of technological progress) / (world
population) is.

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baddox
I wonder if the acceleration is increasing at a constant rate.

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realize
Didn't Ray Kurzweil write a book on this a few years ago?

~~~
xiaoma
He's written either a book or lengthy paper about this every few years since
he wrote _The Age of Intelligent Machines_ in the late 80s. At that time
mainstream opinion was that he was nuts. The book was especially ridiculed for
its predictions of a computer AI unseating a world chess champ by 1998 and of
the human genome being mapped out by the early 2000s.

Both happened ahead of schedule, and that's the primary reason I took his
later books seriously.

