
Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall - tempsy
https://www.wsj.com/articles/remote-work-is-reshaping-san-francisco-as-tech-workers-flee-and-rents-fall-11597413602
======
captaincole
I am living in SF now and this confirms a very clear pattern that I have seen
emerging, particularly of tech workers. I would say that >50% of the people I
know who were living in the city have left, or are in the process of leaving.
Some examples (there are countless):

1) All three of the roommates that I had are choosing to leave either
permanently or temporarily.

2) A friend who works for google who is going on a 6 month road trip in a
camper van

3) A friend who is moving to Santa Cruz just to be closer to surf while we are
remote

4) A friend who moved home to Australia because of how the US is handling the
virus.

5) A friend who is going month to month in different cities, staying in
Airbnbs, and still paying less for housing then his one bedroom in the bay
area

6) A friend who moved to Austin to live with her sister

What I am seeing here is very clear also. The SIP order has removed many of
the greatest parts of SF, the food, the bars, the culture, the density to be
able to go anywhere and see your friends easily, and whats left are many of
the problems that the city has, trash, homelessness, and exorbitant housing
prices.

~~~
dongvsascript
i have an honest question here. i haven't lived in sf -just visited. i have
however been to most states and about 40 countries for comparison.

food - most of what i saw was not good food. hipsterish overpriced food made
by chefs trying to show off by putting a twist on dishes -not to be good, just
to be different or weird. tiny portions, not tasting above average, on a huge
plate. all presentation, not actual taste.

culture: there is no culture. culture was when i lived in versailles. sf is
all snooty people with no content, trying to show off. culture is down to
earth, with class.

bars -there are very few attractive girls at bars, or at offices, or even on
the street, compared to just about anywhere in the world. and if that's not
why you go to bars, i have to ask -you'd enjoy going to bars with mostly men?
because that's cool too -once in a rare while.

density is poor in sf. in good cities, you can walk where you want in a few
minutes. sf is uber heaven. i've lived in cities with amicable density -
without a car, and maybe grabbing a cab once a month. sf ain't it.

the weather's not bad, a little windy. and the ocean is close by. housing
prices are being kept artificially high by sf itself -not letting people build
housing.

so i can't see anything about sf that'd make people want to live there other
than higher salaries. and the first chance they have to earn that salary
elsewhere or remote, they jump on it.

so i think that's what's happening now. nothing to do with covid directly
-just people who would never live there in the 1st place if it wasn't for the
job, leaving as soon as the job lets them.

i think all this analysis of what people are doing and why weirdly avoids the
very simple explanation -everyone's just doing what work lets them do. it's
entirely dictated by employers.

~~~
mrgordon
If you think San Francisco has poor quality food, you clearly haven’t spent
much time there (as you admit) or you don’t have very discerning taste.
California grows the majority of the country’s produce and most everyone else
is getting the same ingredients a few days later. Farm to table is the
standard instead of something that starts at $25/plate like in most US cities

The city could be more dense in some areas but it’s far more walkable than
almost any US city outside of NY. Maybe go to the Mission next time and show
me how LA, Miami, etc. are more walkable after

~~~
artursapek
The majority of the _country 's_ produce? I call bullshit.

~~~
davidgay
[https://vegetablegrowersnews.com/news/3-states-
produced-76-p...](https://vegetablegrowersnews.com/news/3-states-
produced-76-percent-u-s-veggies-2017/)

------
kbos87
It seems very tough to draw any conclusions on this just yet. The media has
clearly latched onto a storyline of a mass exodus from American cities, but
the reality is probably much more complex.

It seems plausible that SF already had such low inventory numbers that any
change would look huge on a chart like this, though that doesn’t appear to be
the case in the other highly competitive markets seen here. I’d love to see
the actual monthly figures... maybe it’s true that there’s an exodus afoot, or
maybe SF was that much worse off from an inventory perspective until now.

It also seems plausible that SF has a unique combination of factors that put
it in a bad spot right now. It’s insanely expensive, quality of life has been
on the decline for some time, and the types of companies that made real estate
there so expensive in the first place are also likely to be the ones that
adopt remote work quickly and wholeheartedly.

SF aside, my best guess at this point is that many American cities are and
will continue to actually see some amount of people leaving for lower cost and
more spacious markets, especially if remote work optionality sticks in the way
it looks like it will. But cities have enduring appeal - proximity to people
and culture and things to do is just as much a factor as proximity to work. I
think any exodus we see in most markets will amount mostly to a pull-forward
of people who would have left cities anyway because of life stage, but did it
a year or two early if they could.

~~~
neltnerb
I was surprised that in SF of all places the impact of COVID on AirBNB rentals
wasn't even mentioned. I'd expect some people doing that have decided to just
rent it like normal housing and actually increase the housing stock.

But way too early to tell, I'm still never expecting to move back there.

~~~
rsynnott
I was wondering about that too. In Dublin, which has vaguely similar dynamics
(inadequate housing supply, very large presence of tech and other industries
which have gone all in on remote-for-now if not remote-forever) rental
inventory is up by 60%. Which sounds like a lot, until you look at how tiny it
is normally, and how much of what’s showing up to rent is very clearly hastily
decommissioned Airbnb stock.

~~~
disgruntledphd2
And house prices _still_ haven't started coming down...

~~~
rsynnott
They may not for a while. Except for new-builds outside Dublin (or marginally
in county Dublin but far from the city) they didn't drop much throughout 2008;
sales just slowed down. 2009-2011 was where there was really a big drop.

------
bamboozled
Have others noticed this kind of "revolt against cities" attitude lately too?

I do wonder if people consider the huge advantages city living can provide?

I'm reading constantly that current dream is buying a plot of land in the
middle no where, signing up for StarLink and growing watermelons while trying
to work a full time engineering job.

The thing is though, this is all just a temporary thing, even if this pandemic
meanders on for another 3-5 years. It's nothing in the course of
history.People will still go to cities because the best opportunities,
education, entertainment and social scenes will exist there. People who live
in cities will have advantages and children will want to move there from the
country to be with other young people.

I'm not saying that there aren't advantages to the country lifestyle, I've
spent time in rural areas too and had plenty of family who lived, I understand
the romantic allure of it.

But cities were popular before this, and they'll be popular after this too.

~~~
01100011
Why would I want to live in a city and compete with the best of the best? I
don't want my kids to go to a top school in an urban environment. I want them
to do well in an above-average suburban school and have access to recreational
activities outside the city. I want to live an affordable life that allows me
to save and build wealth. I want a good work/life balance. I don't see the
city providing me any of that. The city is for a special type of person. For
people like me, it's just constant stress.

~~~
fragmede
Who's competing? Stack rank firing went out in the 90's. Part of being the
best _I_ can be involves surrounding myself with the smartest people I can
find. I _don 't_ want to be the smartest person in the room, and I find I
learn more working alongside the best of the best, even (especially) if I'm
the dumbest person there.

~~~
john4534243
What better way is there other than online to find the smartest person or any
group ?

------
ravenstine
Putting any valid criticism of this article aside, anecdotally, I know a bunch
of people who have either left or are in the process of leaving California in
the last few months. One of them just left SF. In other news, one of my
cousins is seriously working towards moving out of NY. 3 of my team members
have moved to smaller parts of the country.

Simply speaking, my gut tells me this isn't just about San Francisco. They
don't have a monopoly on overexpensive housing, homelessness, drug problems,
feces, violence, or taxes.

Again, anecdotal, but I think the exodus is real, and it's not hard to see
why. We're going to soon hit a point where apologists for cities will no
longer be able to defend them. I would love to live in a city if it didn't
both punish success and fail to help those whom are truly in need.

~~~
johnyzee
This is a real and global trend. Same thing is happening in European capitals
right now. People, especially singles and young couples, are wondering why
they are paying a huge portion of their income in rent in order to be in the
city, when they can't go out anyway. Almost all big companies are working
remote. If you are not too tied down, it's obvious to make the move.

I don't think most people realize how similar the dynamics are in developed
economies across the world, and, consequently, what a big impact this, along
with everything else going on, could have on the global economy.

For sure, the immediate cause of the issue is the corona virus, but a large
economic impact might not be easy to just roll back, even after that
(hopefully) is resolved.

~~~
paganel
> when they can't go out anyway.

I live in such an European capital city (Bucharest) and in fact we can go out
to meet our friends and the like, outdoor restaurants and coffee shops are
open (they have been since the beginning of June), parks are open. Yes,
concerts are still heavily restricted (some do happen, but only outdoors and
with a limited number of spectators) and of course you cannot attend any
sporting event just yet, but that's pretty manageable.

------
bluedevil2k
It’s odd they don’t mention the sky high taxes in California as a driving
force for the exodus and the fact the Gavin Newsom wants to raise them even
more to cover Covid shortages. There’s only so much you can squeeze out of
people before they’ll pack up an go.

~~~
danhak
Property taxes in California are among the lowest in the nation.

~~~
jurassic
Property taxes are not that relevant for the masses who can't afford to buy
property.

~~~
x87678r
It is because a big chunk of your rent goes to property taxes. Where I am
property taxes are $1k a month for a $3k/mo apartment.

~~~
jeffbee
Property tax is not an input to setting the market rate of rental housing,
though. Changing the tax does not change the rent. Ask yourself if your rent
would decrease if they decreased the taxes. Rent is a simple supply/demand
system.

~~~
bluedevil2k
Totally false. Changing the tax rate will definitely change the rent. A
property tax increase will increase the floor that tenants (edit: meant
landlords) would be willing to rent their places out _across the entire city_
as they look to protect their profit margins. You don't think that a landlord
will see a property tax increase and think "oh well, I guess I'm going to make
less money from now on". Rent is definitely not a simple supply/demand
situation as there are many hands in on the equation (taxes, rent control,
zoning).

~~~
jeffbee
Nope, you're wrong. Your argument rests on the idea that landlords (I assume
you meant landlords where you said "tenants") have the ability to raise
prices. If they did, they would have already raised them. Landlords who are
not subject to rent controls charge whatever the market will bear, and no
less. Therefore property tax has no bearing on rent.

~~~
bluedevil2k
So if propert tax went up 50% you think rent wouldn’t change at all? C’mon,
you’re making a silly argument.

~~~
jeffbee
I'm not being silly and it's easy to see why. The differences between taxation
of otherwise-identical buildings are already much more than 50%, because of
Proposition 13. There are similar buildings on my block where the tax bills
differ by more than an order of magnitude. Does this have any effect on the
rents? It does not. The house paying $2000/year commands as high a rent as
does the house paying $20000/year.

~~~
stale2002
Lets take this even further, then, to demonstrate a point.

Lets say that property taxes were 1 million dollars a year, per apartment.

What do you think would happen? What I think would happen is that property
owners would abandon their property/destroy it/remove it from the market,
because they don't want to pay that 1 million dollars a year.

This would effect support of housing, meaning that price would go up.

Yes, rents are effected by supply and demand. And property taxes can have an
effect on supply. This is clear, in our extreme example of 1 million dollars a
year, per apartment.

~~~
jeffbee
OK, but in this context how does reductio ad absurdum help us? Actual property
taxes aren't flat fees, they are rates on the value, and the value is derived
from the gross rent the property commands. You are talking about a tax that
would be much greater than 100%, while actual San Francisco taxes are 1%. We
can talk about the small-signal response of this system, how it behaves if you
double or halve the tax, without having to think about whether our model holds
at the extremes. It doesn't matter if the model can't predict what happens if
the tax rate goes to infinity.

On the other hand we do know what happens if the tax rate goes to zero,
because there are many rental properties in San Francisco which are
essentially untaxed. These properties have the same rents as any other,
following the market price up and down. We can say with good empirical basis
that halving and doubling the property tax rate has no effect on rents.

~~~
stale2002
> OK, but in this context how does reductio ad absurdum help us?

It helps us at least establish that property taxes effect supply.

If there is an additional cost for holding a certain supply, then this will
discourage people from holding it.

For other examples, you can think about how it would discourage people from
building new supply because that supply is less valuable, due to the
additional costs of holding it.

> These properties have the same rents as any other

It is not about the effect on existing properties. Instead, this is about the
effect that at tax has on the supply of housing.

Higher costs and higher taxes disincentives the ownership of, or creation of
new supply.

> We can say with good empirical basis that halving and doubling the property
> tax rate has no effect on rents.

No. Because you are ignoring the effect that costs have on supply of housing.
The higher that costs are, for both building housing, holding housing, or any
other cost at all, means that owning that property is less valuable, and it
means that less future housing is produced, due to higher costs.

~~~
jeffbee
I'm not ignoring it. It seems like you must be making this argument from some
far-away place. There is no developer today who is waiting on the sidelines
for lower property taxes. Property tax rate has no bearing whatsoever on
supply of housing. What does control the supply of housing is that it is
forbidden by statute to build housing in 90% of San Francisco and a large
portion of the surrounding area, too. You could repeal the entire property tax
regime and it would have _no_ effect on rents.

~~~
stale2002
Ah, ok, I got caught too much into the hypotheticals. If you are going to say
that additional costs to holding housing, do not effect supply in San
Francisco, because the bottleneck is actually a supply cap, which makes it
illegal to build more, then I can agree with that.

But, in general, if there are not laws that put a maximum on housing supply in
the area, THEN property taxes would effect supply, as the bottleneck to new
housing is costs and profitability, and not laws.

------
always_left
I’ve said it before, shame so many of you don’t appreciate SF. It’s not
perfect but it’s so much better than where I grew up. To be able to go to
Marin, Yosemite, Tahoe, Big Sur, etc. for a weekend is truly amazing. Granted
I’m privileged I can go there and I’m not a night life person, it’s truly a
dream for me. The city also has many pockets of nature that are huge
(presidio, gg Park). I hope you find a place that makes you happy though.

~~~
mtalantikite
Yeah, this article reminds me of the very worn out “is New York worth it
anymore?” trope the New York Times publishes yearly. Or the ones they run
profiling a young professional couple that has lived in the city for 5 years
and is moving somewhere cheaper.

Of course the pandemic is changing things considerably everywhere and it’s
definitely different this time, but the cities are still the cities. SF has
access to amazing nature and is a beautiful city. New York is going to be New
York. They’ll come back. I’m not mad at having a cheaper, weirder, grittier
city though. It’s the reason I fell in love with the city as a kid in the
first place.

------
dmode
Since this whole thread is based on anecdotal evidence. I will offer mine. I
work for a large unicorn where most employees live in SF or Bay Area. Almost
none have left SF permanently. Many people moved in with their parents or
relatives to take advantage of this WFH situation. Almost all of them plan to
be back when COVID is over. I have several friends in SF and the one trend
that is clear is that they are planning to move from their condos to homes
with backyards within SF. But there is massive demand for homes, and they are
not able to find anything under $2mn. I think this SF take is wildly premature

~~~
bezmenov
Nothing is more permanent than “temporary” arrangements; and nothing is more
temporary than “permanent” ones.

------
habosa
I moved out of SF in March. Not because of the virus, I just had a long-
planned move (to London) with interesting timing.

Unlike many of my tech peers, I love San Francisco and the Bay Area. It's a
beautiful city and surrounded in all directions by even more beautiful places.
The food, music, and art scenes are all amazing. Oh and it happens to have
near-unlimited job options for my career of choice.

The only reason I wasn't thinking about buying and staying forever was because
the economy there makes absolutely no sense. Housing prices are out of control
and the stock is of pretty low quality. Food, drink, and entertainment prices
are also super high with no low end at all. NYC might be just as expensive but
you can still get a dollar slice of pizza if you want it. You know SF is bad
when all I could think in my first month in central London was "wow it's so
cheap here".

If things come down to earth a little bit, even if it's still a Top-3 most
expensive city in the US, I think I'll go back to SF and stay there.

And I think the current exodus is a win-win. People who were only there
because their jobs forced them to be there were the source of a lot of the
natives-vs-techies clashes which made the environment seem hostile at times.

~~~
clappski
> all I could think in my first month in central London was "wow it's so cheap
> here".

I think you're possibly the first and last person to have that thought ;)

~~~
robk
London cost of living is really lower than SF nowadays. It's pretty shocking
but has been this way a while. Just avg eng salaries are lower but US expats
can command a premium and live very well.

------
shadowtree
Unpopular opinion - if you can simply move or work while traveling as an IC -
you are not an essential worker for your company.

The big productivity culling is coming, overhiring was so easy, all seemed
justified.

Careful of marking yourself as replaceable with remote labor. You might not
like just _how_ remote management will go :)

~~~
lbotos
With all due respect to janitors, by your logic, janitors are the most
essential workers at said company.

In earnest, whom did you actually envision to be "essential" then?

What will probably happen is the company will want to lower the workers salary
based on the local market that the IC is operating in. If you aren't trying to
wage arb, then you could keep your job, and potentially be happy.

~~~
sharkmerry
Im not OP. How do you measure level of essential-ness? How soon someone
complains about that work not being done? Janitor would be pretty high up
there.

-Mark

------
momokoko
I think you have to realize this is San Francisco specifically. Not the entire
Bay Area. A lot of people worked in places south of San Francisco and then
commuted south because SF is basically the only city nearby that isn’t awful.
But now that everything is closed down, all the good parts of SF are generally
gone. Who wants to live in a cramped apartment with too many roommates and no
yard? The trade was always that there were a lot of fun and interesting things
to do and interesting people to meet. All of that side of the bargain is gone.
With everything closed, most people would rather live in another part of the
Bay Area where you can at least have a small yard and more space indoors.

~~~
neltnerb
I suppose it's also extremely reasonable to not want to live in close quarters
with too many roommates you don't actually know all that well who may or may
not be adhering to the same level of safety as you want to.

But if that was it, why isn't NYC seeing the same? Are apartments actually
bigger there or more commonly single occupant or something?

~~~
mapgrep
NYC is absolutely seeing the same. Many people went to homes upstate and will
not come back. Rents are falling even if some of it is masked with hidden
rebates (no broker fee, free months).

It is going to be starkest probably in San Francisco though because 1. Rents
were actually higher there to begin with (though they had begun to
deteriorate) 2. The employers there are weighted more heavily toward companies
able and willing to embrace remote work (that is, tech companies).

------
myrandomcomment
It is not just SF, but the whole Bay Area. My power is out now for the 2nd
time in 3 days. The first 2pm Friday until 3am Saturday and now since around
3am Sunday until ... well it’s 6pm and no end in sight. The infrastructure is
crap here. I was on the edge before, but I am over now. 2 more years so the
kid can finish school and we are leaving. While it has been hard managing a
team without the ability to have a whiteboard session, we seem to be dealing
with it. No reason to stay anymore. I just hope I can sell my stupidly over
priced house for what I paid for it in 2 years.

~~~
tempsy
...and now Lyft and Uber might be shutting off service in CA this week.

~~~
SQueeeeeL
I mean, they won't (because lost revenue). And if they do 10 other major
companies will be starting in under a week who are willing to play ball with
the gov

~~~
andreilys
How will those 10 other major companies make money when both Uber and Lyft
have been deeply unprofitable?

~~~
SQueeeeeL
I mean, if there aren't competitors running their businesses at a loss,
presumably some more expensive actually profitable competitors will be able to
come in...?

------
dclusin
I got a job offer from Capital One several years ago in Richmond, VA. I liked
the location and the company but my current gig is paying over twice as much
in San Jose, CA. I just don't see this panning out on a large scale once
people realize that their paychecks will also drop significantly when they
move away.

~~~
cjlars
Three possibilities:

1\. All the bay area companies realize they can employ the best talent
remotely from around the country (globe?) successfully. The SF pay premium
drops.

2\. Bay Area companies pay according to cost of living, many remotely. Some
people move, some stay. SF pay premium holds.

3\. Everyone realizes the pre pandemic normal was right all along and having a
lot of talented people in the same building matters a lot for company success.
SF pay premium holds.

~~~
prostoalex
Feels like we've been through #1 with the wave of Indian outsourcing
prophesied to eat up US IT industry 20 years ago.

If Austin or Denver offer employees at a discount, why not Manila and
Bangalore?

~~~
khuey
Staying within North America largely eliminates the timezone problem.

~~~
kgermino
It also avoids a lot of cultural/communication problems. Even when everyone
speaks the same language, words have subtly different meanings in different
cultures. This is true across NA as well, but SF vs Atlanta is much closer
than Chicago vs India or Brazil. Not to mention that these are also big
countries with their own regional language variations.

~~~
__float
This doesn't make much sense either -- many companies will happily employ
people from India or Brazil if they live in SF or Chicago. Why are the
"cultural/communication problems" not present then?

~~~
toast0
People in the US from other countries have often assimilated at least some US
culture. Or will be expected to assimilate important cultural issues more
rapidly in an office in the US with mostly US cultured people than in an
office elsewhere with few US cultured people.

Many of the communication problems are rapidly addressed with constant
realtime communication that happens in a shared office but doesn't with teams
working separate hours.

~~~
khuey
There's also a big difference between one or two people from other places on
an American team, which will still behave like an American team, and a team of
people entirely from country X, which will behave like a country X team.

Exhibit A: [https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/01/tech/cisco-lawsuit-caste-
disc...](https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/01/tech/cisco-lawsuit-caste-
discrimination/index.html)

------
kelnos
I honestly don't mind this at all.

SF was a desirable place to live before all the techies (such as myself)
crowded in, and it will continue to be after many leave. I'm sticking around;
I love this city for reasons that can't be destroyed by a virus, despite all
its problems.

And it's not like other cities are doing great; at least in the US, all cities
are being damaged by covid-19 to varying degrees. Why would I move to NYC or
Chicago or Boston or Seattle or wherever else? They all have similar covid-
related problems, and they're unfamiliar places where I'd have no or a minimal
support network. I'm not a suburb/rural guy (grew up that way, not going
back), so I don't feel the pull to move out of a city entirely.

SF still has the same underlying problems it had before covid-19, and some of
them have worsened in recent months. It's going to be a difficult few years
getting out of this and figuring out what the next chapter will be, but this
is home for me. For the people who are leaving (who are only here because they
have to be for their job), that's fine; I'd rather be left with people who
actually care about this place enough to stick with it.

------
neonate
[https://archive.is/YPLCF](https://archive.is/YPLCF)

------
angarg12
Less dramatically, I'm planning to move to a more rural part of England, where
I will be able to rent a 2 bed house with garden for almost half of what I'm
paying now for a 1 bed flat.

But I'm fully aware this will be a temporary move, lest I give up most of my
career prospects. Job opportunities, networking, contacts... all of them are
way lower in the countryside compared to the big city. Also I do believe that
remote workers are at a disadvantage in terms of career progression compared
with collocated workers.

Unless company cultures change significantly and it is possible to have the
same career success fully remote, I won't be moving away for long anytime
soon.

~~~
s1t5
Similar situation - still sharing in London and thinking how for the same
amount I can have a whole flat to myself somewhere else in the UK. It's kind
of difficult to plan things if I expect to move back to London in 6 months or
so.

------
adjkant
These HN comments don't seem to grasp that there are two distinct groups of
people here, and these trends can/will counteract eachother: the ones that are
in the city for work, and the ones that are in the city because they love
cities. COVID creates an exodus of one, but people in the latter category are
also moving into cities as well as prices drop and they are no longer priced
out.

HN folks love to complain about the lack of value of cities (SF in
particular), but as someone in NYC, the pandemic has only affirmed that I want
to be here and see value in it. Even in the limited state, so many things I
have access to simply wouldn't be in other areas, and I know many people who
moved away temporarily for economic reasons who are very much not doing as
well mentally and are looking forward to being back in the city.

I don't see why we have to polarize or categorize this trend as it seems like
a win/win if this continues: people who don't like cities move out, that
lowers prices, and suddenly more people who do enjoy city living can afford
them. This has the potential to solve diversity issues in cities, both in
class/culture (potentially slowing or even reversing gentrification) and
industry (less tech people in SF). This sounds like it could be a second wave
of white flight, sans racism, and I'm here for it.

If you don't like cities, I am truly happy for you to move out, both for your
own mental state and happiness and for freeing up space in the city for people
who will be happier. How long this trend lasts as remote work lessens along
with the eventual (macro) end of the pandemic, we will have to wait and see.

~~~
rcpt
> as someone in NYC

NYC is a legit megacity - New York has been described as the cultural,
financial, and media capital of the world.

SF is small by comparison. Only a small portion of SF is walkable and even
then the blocks are long. Transit is sparse and dirty and most people end up
owning cars. Despite this housing is more expensive than NYC.

Unless you think it's reasonable to pay $4k a month for a one bedroom in
Indianapolis it doesn't make sense to stay in SF.

~~~
throwaway713
Except San Francisco has nature (and even more nature close by) which makes
all the difference to me. The few times I’ve been in NYC, I found the sheer
amount of gray concrete and steel to be unnerving and dystopian; I’m
legitimately amazed that humans can live in such an environment for so long
without becoming depressed. That’s not to disparage the city or people who
like it; there’s just many of us who need at least some amount of natural
beauty (and I don’t mean Central Park).

~~~
ghaff
Yes. It's really the combination of climate (usually) and relatively easy
access to water, mountains, etc. that set San Francisco apart. IMO, anyone who
lives in SF and basically never leaves the city except maybe to work is
passing up the main compensation for its high housing prices and many
problems. Take away its setting and it's pretty unremarkable.

[ADDED: OK. Not really fair but what make SF unique is very tied into its
geography.]

~~~
brendawalsh
I was there a few years ago, and saw several homes built in the same era as
mine, 1908.

I live in a rural city and paid less than $150k, I saw the equivalent home in
SF for $9mil.

Location matters for sure.

------
virginieAFP
Hello, I'm a correspondent in the bay area for AFP which is a global news
agency([https://www.afp.com/en/news-hub](https://www.afp.com/en/news-hub)) and
I'm looking for to talk with people who are moving out from San Francisco
because of the pandemic/remote work now accessible. Please, let me know if you
are interested or know someone who may be. Thanks, Virginie Goubier

------
steelframe
In my current company, I have a long history of exceptional performance, but
the job I'm currently in is turning out to be really stressful. A role has
recently opened up in my company that I am an absolute perfect match for. The
problem is that they are requiring me to relocate to the Bay area for it.

Relocating to the Bay area is completely out of the question for me,
especially now that so many tech companies will let me work remote due to
COVID-driven changes. The end result here is that my company is going to end
up losing me to a competitor who can accommodate me working where I am.

------
Tiktaalik
Stories I'm hearing from people in the real estate industry in Vancouver is
that the recreational property market is on fire right now, as tech workers
realize that there is a very good chance that WFH options will be permanent
and so accordingly they can buy some property on the Sunshine Coast, Tofino,
or by some lake in the Interior and go work there for large parts of the year.

The additional upside is that Vancouver real estate is so expensive that even
many relatively wealthy techies are locked out of buying, so this is an
opportunity for people to buy _something_.

~~~
elevenoh
I'm seeing a lotta condo dwellers who love cities in Toronto/Montreal/Calgary
looking to move to dt vancouver since covid. Better walkability, climate &
access to nature.

When nightclubs, irl events & meetups etc. reopen, I think there'll be a rush
back to healthy cities, as opposed to looking at remote spots. Humans tend to
love irl connection.

------
Cactus2018
A) The linked WSJ article claims "The median rent for a one-bedroom apartment
in San Francisco in the month of July dropped by 11% compared with the same
month a year prior, according to rental-listings platform Zumper, which
analyzed nearly 11,000 listings in the city and several surrounding areas."

[http://archive.is/CZeTm](http://archive.is/CZeTm)

However,

B) A different article, dated 8/3/2020, claims: "In San Francisco, Zillow says
rent prices declined 3.2 percent compared to the same time last year."

[https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/08/03/in-bay-areas-
co...](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/08/03/in-bay-areas-
covid-19-rental-market-renters-suddenly-have-more-negotiating-power/)

PadMapper shows the range for a 1 bedroom rental as ~$2k-$4k, and 2 bedrooms
as ~$3k-$5k.

A 3.2% drop on a $4k rental takes the price down to $3.9k. Not a big 'fall' in
the scheme of finding affordable housing.

[https://www.padmapper.com/apartments/san-francisco-
ca/2-beds...](https://www.padmapper.com/apartments/san-francisco-
ca/2-beds?property-categories=apartment,condo,house&max-days=6&exclude-airbnb)

~~~
tempsy
Rents have definitely gone down much more than "just a barely noticeable"
amount. Yes, this is anecdotal, but I check studios and 1-bedrooms almost
religiously on Craigslist and places in neighborhoods I check are at least 10%
cheaper from what I've found compared to last year and there are far more
concessions (e.g. free month of rent) than I've ever seen.

I also negotiated my own rent down in my studio after my lease was up. Only 5%
but kept my month-to-month.

------
d2049
For the people leaving the bay area - I'm curious what your living situation
is.

I've been in SF or Palo Alto for 15 years since graduating. I'm single, most
of my friends are here and the rest are in NYC. I love the idea of moving
somewhere more spread out, maybe close to the beach or in the woods, but not
at the expense of being isolated. Sure, I know a couple people who've moved
away but the vast majority are staying in the city.

------
627467
For now my gut will just consider this trend to be of slowing down in
urbanization (of large metropolis) trend rather than a reversal or collapse of
large (quasi-)city-states.

If anything, this will improve the live of those who can't move out of big
cities. And cities will hopefully have some breathing room to make different
kind of decisions now that some of the citizens have left.

~~~
ghaff
>If anything, this will improve the live of those who can't move out of big
cities.

Maybe. Will that still be true if transit systems and city services generally
are in disarray and many of your nice restaurants, cafes, and bars shuttered?

~~~
627467
1\. While i can understand why certain levels of transit services required a
certain baseline of usage I really don't think the scale of the exodus is
sufficient to warrant mass disruption of existing transit lines (maybe disrupt
the development of new ones is more likely?)

2\. I always prefered large cities but I wouldn't say it was mostly due to
restaurants, bars and cafes. These I can find anywhere and are cheap to setup.
Large city facilities and institutions like museums, theatres, government
offices, sports venues, these are just some of the impossible to replace and
important things that large cities still and will always have.

~~~
ghaff
>museums, theatres, government offices, sports venues

I don't know. If I want museums and theatres, I can always take a long weekend
at one of the relative handful of cities that have world-class ones (that
doesn't really include SF). Though, in normal times, I do have a local theatre
that I attend a half-dozen times a year that's about an hour drive away. Don't
care about sports. I hope to not have to go into government offices.

I do like visiting nice cities but I don't need to live in one full-time to
take advantage of many of the amenities.

As for the transit, many cities are facing incredible budget crunches right
now. There's a story in the NYT just today. And it's not just the exodus;
people who don't have to aren't taking public transit. I've heard numbers like
75%+ decreases in ridership.

------
LatteLazy
It would be a really interesting world if people could pick where they lived
based on where they wanted to live rather than where their job is. For a long
time: we've had this dual blight of people having to leave places they love
for work AND pushing out others who want to stay in the place they're moving
to.

------
AIX2ESXI
Been a professional IT worker since 1999. Most of my sysadmin roles have
always been on site with occasional remote work. Over the years, I've been
able to swing working for a few weeks at a time while traveling abroad.

Currently based in Los Angeles and my organization is allowing us to work
remote. Looking to just move abroad to Ukraine and lower my costs of living
while immersing myself into a new culture and escaping the discord in my
homeland. Might never come back if remote work is not longer taboo for DevOps
and Infrastructure admins.

For those of you leaving the Metro areas, I encourage you to integrate in your
new communities and be open minded. You will be welcomed if you leave your old
ways behind and bring your talent and generosity to where you stay. Good luck!

(That WSJ Article comment section is hilarious btw, don't prove them right.)

~~~
kilroy123
Born and raised in California and I've been in the tech industry since 2007. I
have been living abroad for almost 6 years and couldn't recommend it enough.

It requires some flexibility but it's been an amazing adventure.

~~~
vmception
I live in SF

I bounced between hostels and luxury hotels and airbnbs in central Europe last
year, it was about $600 per month. With the luxury hotels being subsidized by
reward points.

I pay over 10x more than that for pretty decadent living in SF. Not a
complaint, I know what I'm doing. Just perspective.

I would highly recommend living abroad indefinitely.

~~~
AIX2ESXI
Much appreciated. Looking into now. Need to use my Chase Sapphire rewards more
or get an Amex travel card. Only Ukraine is open right now. Thinking about
Odessa so that I can study the classical arts in between Sysadmin duties and
life.

~~~
vmception
Croatia is open right now to Americans, which is decent and beautiful.

And from there you can get into Schengen if you aspire for that. Its not an
Schengen wide policy so I wont say more. There are a lot of relationships in
Europe.

Ukraine is probably cheaper but its up to you.

~~~
AIX2ESXI
Thanks for the advice. Will look into Schengen visa. What are the best portals
for finding work? I'll be remote until end of year with my current gig. But
the 10 hour timezone difference will catch up to me.

------
andromeduck
Having moved back to Vancouver for a few weeks it's honestly so refreshing to,
be back. Living in SF for a few years kind of makes you forget what being in a
half functioning city is like. It's safer, it's cleaner, the people
friendlier, the discourse less polarized/toxic, and the public transit isn't
garbage.

~~~
QuixoticQuibit
Yes, I already feel this despite not having moved out of the SFBA yet. I miss
more dense cities with functional transit systems and fewer on-the-street
issues. Still planning to stay here long term to save extra money. But as soon
as I hit my number, I’m moving out of this disaster in urban planning; there’s
just no future here.

~~~
andromeduck
Yeah. Turns out people don't just pack up their lives and leave without
reason. ️

Transit/zoning/policing is only half the story though IMO. The other half is
just how toxic a lot of the discourse here is. There seems to be an especially
strong preference here for private reason over public reason that I think
underpins much of the social issues here between rose tinted nostalgia for
bygone area, strong nativism and exclusionary localism that IMO is quite MAGA-
esque.

------
01100011
Has anyone ever looked at the curves for the cost of public services vs the
cost of living in a city? What I'm getting at is that if the tech workers flee
SF and are replaced by average income earners and lower property values, will
SF be more or less able to provide the basic city services it is currently
strugging with?

I suspect that the cost of providing basic services rises faster than CoL of
an area, just by looking at CA as a whole. Setting aside the possibility of
bad management, it seems that CA is incapable of providing basic
services(reliable electricity, well maintained roads, water, sewer, housing,
etc) despite being the 5th largest economy on the planet. Is CA a victim of
its success?

------
walamaking
I wonder what impact will WFH have on getting promotions, and the likelihood
of being laid off.

~~~
goldenManatee
Probably flux at first, and after some time an equilibrium. People get used to
all kinds of things - change or die, for companies and careers alike. Worrying
about this will be irrelevant after some time. Too much concern on this kind
of suggests to me that a significant portion of people’s pay is based on the
perception of productivity derived from interfacing with many people at work,
but not necessarily producing a lot more for the company than saliva.

~~~
SpicyLemonZest
I don't agree with the dichotomy here. There's no "more than" about it;
interfacing with people is one of the most important ways that white collar
professionals produce value for a company.

~~~
wandereronhn
Thankfully we have technologies now that have moved beyond smoke signals and
we can actually talk to people without being in visible range.

~~~
SpicyLemonZest
Most people I know, me included, are willing to go much further out of our way
to accommodate those we've met and interact with in person. That's a large
part of why things like industry conferences exist, despite how obvious it is
that they're an ineffective and tremendously expensive way to communicate
information.

------
rorykoehler
It's all a storm in a tea cup. People leave the city -> rents go down -> new
creative people are attracted by the cheap rents -> they create a new vibrancy
-> people want to move back. Rinse and repeat.

~~~
Nursie
But it can be a multi-decade cycle.

Also I've seen a few creative people that are admitting defeat on (say)
Detroit.

~~~
fragmede
One of my friends finally got unpacked after moving to Detroit and is working
on his latest album, in his basement studio space that would be unaffordable
after paying rent in Oakland.

~~~
Nursie
Good for him and I wish him luck!

------
rdlecler1
I’d be interesting in seeing a heat map where people are moving to
(Permanently). Is it just to outside the Bay Area, outside (high cost)
California, to other cities it to low cost suburbs.

------
arrty88
In big cities like SF and NYC a majority of people are on the summer lease
cycle. Every summer you either have to renew the same tired old place for a
2-5% increase, or you jump to a new landlord and spend promotion/bonus/raise
in a modern new building.

The past 2 months the streets in my NYC neighborhood have been littered with
moving vans and my floor has all but emptied out.

~~~
ghaff
Yes, although among (former) urban people I know, the difference is that for
those who were at least toying with the idea of moving out of the city the
current situation was the trigger to do something this cycle. This has
included everything from people renting an hour-plus out of the city or even
moving to rural areas hours away.

------
Ar-Curunir
The exodus is to the East Bay: rents are up 5-10% in Oakland, for example.

------
albacur
I've been wrestling with the idea of moving. If I do, I know it will be
extremely difficult to convince myself to ever move back. I haven't found this
city a desirable place to live for several years now, I'm priced out of the
peninsula, and life's too short to spend hours commuting every day from the
East Bay.

------
aminozuur
I applaud this trend. I am in the 60% of people[1] who prefer to work from
home, and spend more time with loved ones and less time rushing to get to the
office.

[1] [https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/business/pandemic-work-
fr...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/business/pandemic-work-from-home-
coronavirus.html)

~~~
amw-zero
I’m very skeptical that 60% of all people prefer to work from home. In my
experience, it’s a small but vocal minority who don’t value the social
component of an office. I think work from home should totally be optional, but
why do work-from-homers assume that everyone else likes to work that way? I do
not.

~~~
SpicyLemonZest
I think the factor you're missing is the large chunk of people who just...
aren't particularly fulfilled by their job. A lot of the people in that 60%
are perfectly fine with it if working from home means they're less productive
or achieve less of a personal connection with their coworkers - I know more
than a few people who'd be happier watching Youtube alone for 8 hours than
working.

~~~
randycupertino
Ha! On my worst days, I'll admit I'm in the group who would binge watch
youtube over filling out a spreadsheet. I've struggled keeping a good routine
during wfh, there are some days where I'm not as productive as in the office.

------
aussieguy1234
I disagree with the notion that the "rent seekers" add value to the economy.
All I can see is their parasitic influence on not only cost of living but also
wider social issues like homelessness, which the rest of the economy then has
to put up with and pay for

------
chiph
The departure of people from the bay area was also discussed about seven
months ago. At that time, I used the uhaul.com website to show the difference
in renting a 26' truck from Mountain View to Dallas Texas, and the reverse.
(U-Haul does dynamic pricing based on availability and demand). It was $4230
to leave California, vs. $846 to enter it.

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22080410](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22080410)

Looking at U-Haul's website today, that price has remained the same. Maybe
there's a upper limit on their rate calculator? Or maybe demand has stayed
mostly the same.

------
DevKoala
My company went remote first for all product and support roles. The people I
spoke to are not only leaving the Bay Area, but the state. People are now
buying property in Colorado and other states that are less expensive thank
California.

------
ozzyoli
San Francisco and cities like it are not oil wells; they are collaborative
social efforts that ideally involve participation from everyone involved.
Paying taxes (ie paying someone else to do something for you) is great, but
you always have the invitation to roll your sleeves up and participate in more
ways.

Have you ever picked up trash? Or helped build a trail? Or gone to a city town
hall meeting? Written to a local committee? Volunteered at the food bank?

If you’re like me and have the privilege of affording to live here, before and
during COVID, this is still a lovely place to live an interesting, fulfilling
and content life.

Be here, take part :)

------
systematical
It's not just SF. Why am I paying $2,000 for a 1BR apartment in DC when I now
work from home and there is nothing to do in the area? My lease is up in
November and I am going to month-to-month while I decide.

------
saos
I'm hoping to see something similar in London. I've already moved out of my
flat share to live with parent. Hoping to move out of London all together.
Thinking of moving to Bristol or Cornwall

------
api
Crises like these tend to pop bubbles. The "everyone has to be in one of 5 or
6 cities to have a career" bubble is popping.

It's terrible for the inhabitants of these cities as it makes them
unaffordable, and it's terrible for everyone else as it makes it impossible
for them to accumulate wealth and drains the rest of the country of talent.
The only beneficiaries are pre-existing property owners in these cities, and
banks to some extent.

------
tumanian
My partner and I capitalized on dropping rents and just moved into a large 1br
with amazing views and garage in SF, for a marginal increase in rent. I am
hoping that with tech moving out and commercial real estate getting cheaper,
the new generation of artists will come to the city, bringing with them the
weird culture, the creatives, the experimental. Its not the first boom of this
town and after every bust the city heals itself to something even better.

------
capkutay
> There are signs the exodus is finally happening. Silicon Valley, America’s
> signature hub of innovation, may never be the same.

I wouldn’t lump all of Silicon Valley in with San Francisco. The suburbs
outside the city still enjoy a high quality of life.

Not to mention companies like Apple, Facebook, Google spent billions on long
term leases in Silicon Valley. They will have their workers come back to the
office when it’s safe.

------
sushshshsh
Stuck here in NYC because landlord wanted a $13,000 break lease so I'm gonna
stuff the apartment full of people and let him figure it out. Bye!

------
spicyramen
For tech workers, living in SF is affordable, but not worth it. If you move to
a place and pay 1/4 of what you pay u can save for that house way faster.
Question is after summer 2021 what will happen. In South Bay specifically in
North San Jose you star seeing an alarming number of offices/buildings for
lease... definitely a crash in that area is happening soon.

------
m0zg
One thing about real estate (and therefore rents) is that it can go up _and_
down _at the same time_ in different segments. That's what I learned when
buying my house at the trough of the recession in 2009 or so. Higher end stuff
tends to be pretty much unaffected, but for the lower end the bottom falls
out. So I'd avoid drawing any broad generalizations.

------
throwaway713
I’m in tech, but I like the Bay Area for what it is. I plan on working remote
to be near family, but also intend to use the lower cost of living to save up
and purchase a house in SF at some point later in life, hopefully to retire
to. It’s a nice area and I think many people will be back after the pandemic
(tech people or not); it just doesn’t make economic sense to be here now.

------
brachika
I'm not even living in SF, but I can understand the reasons, and they are -
who would guessed it, mostly money related.

The last couple of months during the quarantine I saved more as double than I
did in the two years before that.

------
diogenescynic
A few of my friends have been asked to take pay cuts and/or relocate out of SF
so the company could avoid the city payroll tax. I imagine this will have
ripple effects. I already see more office space for lease signs, for rent, and
for sale signs than any other time I can remember. SF Bay Area is due for a
massive fall in real estate prices.

------
jmspring
As someone born and raised in the Bay Area, what I feel is the decline of SF
(cultural venues, long time restaurants, neighborhoods changing character)
some see as progress.

The exodus is interesting ... I don’t see a return of those displaced by tech.
But I hope there is some return to balance.

------
lobster45
[https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/remote-work-is-
reshap...](https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/remote-work-is-reshaping-
san-francisco-as-tech-workers-flee-and-rents-fall)

------
athiercelin
I left SF. I could afford living and buying in SF, the deal was just not worth
it anymore. It was getting there before the pandemic. It just made it much
worst much faster.

I'm not selling my decision. Be adults, make your own.

------
jeffbee
These inventory levels are comparable to 2009 and below 2010, both years in
which the population of San Francisco increased. They are also, as the article
obliquely indicates, still half the proportional levels of New York.

------
ChicagoDave
And corporate America will use this trend to push back against highly skilled
technology salaries. It really shouldn’t matter where we work or what the cost
of living is where we reside.

------
felipemnoa
I think this is no biggie. You move out, somebody else will move in. This will
probably end up being for the best. The city may end up more vibrant with the
new blood coming in.

------
627467
While couples and families are making (probably overdue) decision to live the
city I don't seen the magnet effect to die down for younger and single people
anytime soon.

------
emmelaich
sfgate article : [https://www.sfgate.com/living-in-sf/article/2020-San-
Francis...](https://www.sfgate.com/living-in-sf/article/2020-San-Francisco-
exodus-is-real-and-historic-15484785.php)

and Zillow report:

[https://www.zillow.com/research/2020-urb-suburb-market-
repor...](https://www.zillow.com/research/2020-urb-suburb-market-
report-27712/)

------
VectorLock
Maybe there is a glimmer of hope of getting the old awesome San Francisco
back, or has all the wonderful weird stuff been too diluted to make a
comeback?

------
blablabla123
I never lived in the Bay Area but as a tech worker of course this was
something that I had to think about. But to me the only point of living there
seems to be work. I cannot imagine a job that interesting to me to give up
anything else in live for it. To me the city planners messed up big time
because making sure low-cost living remaining possible is essential for a
great city and different kinds of people coming together. I hope this will be
a learning but maybe change will also now be driven differently

------
throw51319
Cities are overrated. You can leverage your salary and live somewhere actually
cool and carve your own path, while living like a king.

------
xtat
I spent the last decade in SV and the "rents are falling!" meme came up every
year or so. Good luck :)

------
WalterBright
> flee and rents fall

But I was assured rents are not affected by supply & demand :-)

------
nautilus12
Is there any way to get data about where these people are going?

~~~
fragmede
Uhaul publishes yearly migration trends, though they've not yet publicly
shared data on where people are moving for 2020.

here's the one for 2019 [https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/19966/U-Haul-
Migration-...](https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/19966/U-Haul-Migration-
Trends-Top-25-Growth-Cities-Of-2019/)

------
tzvsi
Will productivity decline due to remote work life shift?

------
pdx6
I've lived in San Francisco for 15 years, and I won't miss these tech workers
that are leaving. They can flee to their plot of land in Minnesota and make
everyone out there angry instead when rents rise and their carpetbagger ideas
show up on the local ballot.

Anyone moving away isn't set on urban living and the type of community that's
here. A city offers a mix of cultures, personalities, and ideas that don't
form around people sitting at home taking meetings over zoom and hyping up the
latest fad.

Those that stay and invest in the downturn caused by the pandemic are the ones
that belong here anyway. They'll be the ones getting once in a generation
housing discounts, leasing cheap retail store fronts and warehouses, and
building enriched relationships.

It is a boom and bust town, and for the savviest entrepreneurs, a bust is
worth more than a boom.

~~~
paxys
Please show me these "once in a generation housing discounts".

~~~
fragmede
The recession from 2009 to 2011, as shown in this graph, is the "once in a
generation" sort of thing. Unfortunately, we're on leading edge of seeing it
happen again, arguably within the same generation.

[https://paragonpublic.blob.core.windows.net/dash-v2-blog-
ima...](https://paragonpublic.blob.core.windows.net/dash-v2-blog-
images/185982/slide13-condo.jpg)

------
EricE
Wow - lack of demand affect the price of supply?

Who knew?!?

------
fermienrico
San Francisco (and the general bay area) is one of the shittiest places in the
US I have ever lived.

Not because there is trash everywhere, the infrastructure is crumbling, the
goverment is dysfunctional, the housing mafia won't let high rises rise and
provide public transportation for higher density - all these things are true,
but mainly because it stays shitty in this feedback loop - more talent leads
to more companies settling here which leads to more talent which leads to even
more companies settling here.

This feedback loop is the only reason SF bay area is surviving. Since for
decades things haven't improved, it is not surprising why people are leaving.
Once the feedback loop exits, it is a downward spiral from now on.

------
Shivetya
Somehow completely ignoring the issue with how the homeless have made many
areas of the city uninviting. The pandemic is being exploited by both business
and politicians alike to mask underlying issues in hopes of getting a free
pass. The old don't look behind the curtain. Protest violence isn't helping
any city; and the lie about Federal agents causing it was silences with
continued violence long after they left; and the long term change to where
people want to live from the confluence of the pandemic, protest violence, and
costs, is all coming to haunt our cities.

~~~
wwwwwwwww
> how the homeless have made many areas of the city uninviting

That's a very ugly sentence.

Its is not "the homeless" who made the city uninviting. That is like saying
"the sick made this hospital uninviting".

Homeless people need help. They are people in distress.

Those who made the city uninviting are self-centered voters, who apparently
can't give two shits about the situation, and keep voting people into power
who don't do anything to help those who need help.

~~~
paul_f
Semantics, we all know what the poster meant. Whatever the cause, the homeless
make large swaths of San Francisco unappealing, especially for people with
young families. BTW, quite the irony that the most liberal city in the country
has the biggest homeless problem. Whatever they're doing isn't working, maybe
they should try something different?

~~~
jeffdn
San Francisco may be the most liberal city in the country (or at least one of
them -- Washington, D.C. is pretty liberal, too), but it absolutely does not
have the worst homeless problem:
[https://www.usnews.com/news/cities/slideshows/cities-with-
th...](https://www.usnews.com/news/cities/slideshows/cities-with-the-most-
homelessness-in-the-us?slide=2)

~~~
reducesuffering
Only if you’re using the literal definition of “absolute.” I think most people
would find per-capita a much better metric for the “worst homeless problem.”

------
fanatic2pope
Good time to buy real estate.

~~~
paxys
Just before the bubble bursts?

------
tekkiweb
exactly, remote work is reshaping the industries of San Francisco

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AzzieElbab
the dead golden goose bridge

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effingwewt
So I decided to take a road trip, just me and my dogs recently. Went from
California to Southern Texas, up to New Mexico, over to Arizona, Nevada, back
to California, up to Oregon, Washington, hit the upper border, came back down
to southern California.

What I saw astounded me. It was like the scene from Grapes of Wrath, crossed
with the Beverley Hillbillies, crossed with Tokyo Drift.

I saw people leaving in droves but nowhere was it as bad as in California.
There is a mass exodus of the state and no one seems to notice it.

People/families are buying vans, even ford/chevy service vans to live in due
to them looking commercial(less hassle from people /police), and having
blacked out windows. They are also far cheaper than an rv.

Speaking of rvs some people are having to buy non running ones cheap and
permapark somewhere. This includes families with pets, with no other recourse.

Every rest stop/flying j was people leaving or homeless people permacamped. I
spoke to them regularly and the stories were truly heart wrenching.

I also saw more paper plates (license plates) than regular ones (this is
hyperbole but not far off the truth I'm sure even people not traveling have
noticed this). Many of these people seemed to not know or care how to drive. I
can't begin to guess as to the reasons but people in cars with paper plates
were 90 percent of the time a-holes on the road, and I saw many of them in
accidents.

I'm sorry for the rant, I just am trying to say I've traveled the US
extensively over my 40 years, but this one broke me. We have failed as a
society, we do nothing for our most vulnerable, and its hurting us all.

I advise everyone to (when its safe) go to your local rest stops and flying
j/pilot/whatever rest stop and talk to some of these people. Those homeless
people I see so many complain about here (they're crazy, druggies, they
stink!) <-all can be true, but they are still human deserving of your
understanding and empathy, and I say this as someone who had a homeless guy
threaten to eat my dogs. Obviously he had issues so I just left, but someone
called the cops. Thankfully Santa Monica has mental health professionals the
local police can rely on for such issues, so when I told them he did not
threaten me or my life, he was left alone until mental health services could
arrive. But I've seen far worse from the police in regards to homelessness in
say, Bakersfield.

Also you will meet regular families, many now homeless, who have children with
them or grandparents. Who worked their whole lives, some were even approved
for unemployment months ago but never got a dime. Most families in the US
can't weather missing a single paycheck and these folks were asked to wait
indefinitely, and its already been what, 6 months?

Or just talk to the ones who are moving, but don't know where. Did you know
that many property rental companies, at least in California, now demand 3
recent check stubs and proof of work, unemployment does not count. We
literally have families who have money and still have to move out of state
because by the time they got their money its been months since they last
worked?

The moratorium on evictions was supposed to help people but guess what? Just
like everything else it was perverted into something to hurt the people it was
meant to help. Now no one wants a tenant that even may possibly be a risk in
the future. We will see how long their properties are vacant before they begin
begging for those families back.

Im sorry, I'm done, just all of this is so heartbreaking.

 __super late edit to add- the sheer volume of people I 've met who were
absolutely convinced coronavirus isnt real was mind blogging, especially since
I lost several people close to me and know many others who were sick. These
people came from all walks of life, all races and creeds. But all were
positive it was all some big conspiracy. I didn't ever speak on it myself
because how do you respond without anger when you've had people taken by it?

Edited for spelling and clarity and to add some stuff.

~~~
biztos
I too am appalled by the rapidly growing poverty, which has accelerated in the
pandemic of course but was already incredibly visible to me when returning to
California every six months while the economy was supposedly going great.

If many of these people are leaving California, where are they going, and why?
Did any of them tell you?

It seems to me that if you're down and out you are probably better off
actually staying in California, but not in a big city, because we have a
pretty big tradition of tolerance and state aid. Are they hoping for better in
Nevada or Arizona?

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x87678r
Whenever I see % increase as a headline you can be confident that its using
percentages in order to make a misleading point.

Sure enough a few paragraphs down:

> It should be noted that San Francisco had an unusually low inventory
> relative to other large cities prior to the pandemic.

Maybe there are a lot of people selling, but you can ignore this particular
stat.

~~~
SpicyLemonZest
I’m not sure it’s reasonable to entirely ignore a statistic because it could
be skewed by other factors. There’s no quick way to directly measure the net
outflow, so if we want to anticipate the problem in advance potentially
misleading data is all we’ve got.

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pyrrhotech
Not sure why anyone would choose to live in SF except for geographic-specific
opportunities. It's a dirty, overcrowded and high tax pit, and everyone living
there that isn't in tech or finance hates you for your success.

~~~
tmpz22
It's still got pockets of extreme beauty where you can for the most part
ignore the problems, there's also a strong contingent of "lifers" who would go
down with the ship if a small comet was headed to destroy the city.

Also a lot of people hanging on to their property values as their entire nest
egg.

~~~
pyrrhotech
Oh yea, I agree the natural beauty is astounding. It's the extreme left wing,
near Bolshevik culture and attitude that has destroyed it for me. I say this
as a lifelong democrat.

~~~
fermienrico
I agree, SF/Oakland/Berkeley do not resonate with me as a life-long democrat
as well.

Extreme-left wingers in my view stand head to head with extreme-right wingers.
These people are the cancer of the society IMO.

~~~
crooked-v
One bit of broader context to keep in mind is that "extreme" left-wingers in
the US are merely 'the left' by, say, European standards, where the US as a
whole is seen as a right-leaning country.

~~~
natechols
We have actual Maoists in the bay area - they're a tiny faction and utterly
irrelevant, but they're very good at getting attention and they like to poison
the atmosphere for everyone. There are no Maoist governing parties in Europe
that I'm aware of, and hardly any Marxists either.

~~~
peacefulhat
Communist parties in America are nothing but there are communist parties with
seats in national legislatures throughout Europe. They’re not specifically
Maoist because that doesn’t make any sense for developed countries.

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exabrial
Please just keep the bad ideas there. There was complete control of the local,
county, and state government with an unlimited budget fueled by reckless and
out of control taxation. If the ideas pandered there couldn't work in that
Utopia then it won't work anywhere else.

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ogdusk
Whenever an article like this comes out, I can’t help but wonder if the
reporters considered talking to people with more diverse backgrounds. Since
the pandemic started, my partner and I have talked about moving to lower cost
of living areas, but inevitably we have to ask ourselves: “what would it
_really_ be like to live in <X small town> for people who look like us?” In an
ideal world, decency and merit win out over appearance and race in terms of
how people are treated, but unfortunately that’s not the reality for many
folks in tech.

