
Belarus has shut down the internet amid a controversial election - ikse11
https://www.wired.com/story/belarus-internet-outage-election/
======
yabones
I have some close acquaintances in BY, so this has been hard.

We saw that (at least as of 8 PM UTC) outbound connections to HTTP servers
wasn't really a problem. A fresh ec2 box with a basic web server wasn't
effected.

So, early yesterday I set up an OpenVPN server on ec2 (eu-west-1) to try to
get some slow but functional internet access. What we saw was that about 15-30
seconds after the TLS handshake the connection would stall and drop out. To me
this says they're doing some deep packet inspection to find TLS and dropping
those firewall states. I also noticed while running `tcpdump` that almost
every tcp segment from a BY address had incorrect CRC's after the IDS kicked
in.

Tonight we're going to try using an xor tcp proxy to obfuscate the VPN
traffic. The system we're using has a name, but I'm not going to say it to
risk KGB (yes it's still called that there) creating IDS signatures and
killing our VPN. I'm sure that after a few hours it will start dropping these
connections as well, but if we can buy some time that's worth while.

This, really, is the real problem with the internet. In many small countries
there's only one IX, often under government ownership or supervision. You
might think that they know better than to do stuff like this, but push comes
to shove they'll all lock it down as soon as there's a threat to their
authority.

~~~
Waterluvian
What are the odds this is some western commercially packaged product that lets
them do all this? Like some Sandvine stuff or whatever.

~~~
stjohnswarts
The Chinese are also rather good at shutting down the internet as well. why
not blame all possible parties?

~~~
jariel
"why not blame all possible parties?"

10 years ago I would have said 'it's probably Western companies helping them'.

Now, I would say probably it's Chinese. Frankly, because it's going to be so,
so much cheaper, let alone it probably doesn't come with any potential
political headaches, and, they are developing a 'core competency' in this.

That said, Putin has serious geopolitical interest in Belarus, and himself is
supportive of the regime. Since the Russian state is also 'good at that stuff'
it could very well be a state-sponsored initiative.

Finally, Belarus is not Venezuela, wherein they might have difficulty
recruiting all the talent necessary to do this. Belarus has enough native
talent to contemplate the task.

But it'd be interesting to know 'who' is helping them do this.

~~~
sueuu3rid8
Frankly, I don't see why it matters who is selling or managing the equipment.
It's a pointless debate that misses the forest for the trees. Only children
thought refusing to produce and export this kind of expertise would stop it
from from proliferating. The demand and the money aren't going to go away
because anyone in particular took the high road. Refusing to participate just
means someone else gets the money.

------
SergeAx
Yesterday and day before editors of Telegram channel nexta_live [0] managed to
report events in Minsk and other cities in Belarus. They are now seeng
subscribers count boost from 300k to 1.1m in 2 days. The entire country
connection was badly shaped but still alive. Telegram is famous for it's
ability to work on a very thin bandwith, and also anti-blocking techniques.

Today all mobile data is switched off, but there are still small streams of
information, I think using sat connections.

[0] [https://t.me/nexta_live](https://t.me/nexta_live)

~~~
TrainedMonkey
To put this into context, population of Belarus is below 9.5m:
[https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/belarus-
popul...](https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/belarus-population/)

~~~
SergeAx
I think lots of subscribers there are from Russia (myself included), Ukraine
or other ex-USSR republics. But still.

BTW, it's 1.25m already. Gotta be 1.5m tomorrow. And those users are extremely
engaged - view counts on post from just an hour before is north of 0.5m.

------
caleb-allen
I have coworkers in Belarus who have been cut off from our (US based) company
since the weekend. I've been able to hear from one of them intermittently, but
it's a scary thing, I can't imagine what they're going through.

~~~
hamiltont
FYI - we have been able to get regular SMS and voice calls through (using
Google Fi as our carrier). It was great to go from "absolute zero
communication" to "we know you're currently OK"

~~~
3pt14159
Surely if there are telephone communications then someone can modem out? Or
are they scanning for non-human communication over telephony?

~~~
gpm
The number of people with the hardware and know how to send data over a
telephone line is probably very small.

~~~
tanatocenose
Slightly ironic since this was once the only way. Brb investing in a modem.

------
onetimemanytime
It's really simple and sad: he has been in power since 1995. God knows what he
has done as an absolute dictator. Also, to stay in power, tens or hundreds of
thousands of others have helped him and they have their own fiefdoms.

Losing that and risking jail, isn't going to happen because people want
change. So people better be lucky, because if they lose this revolt, they will
be crushed mercilessly. Not sure EU /USA has any say over him, after all
staying in power is his goal.

------
obogobo
wondering what / if any impact "the space internet" (or like networks) will
have on national government's ability to disrupt comms. or if it just shifts
the goalposts to a different network operator

~~~
enkid
I don't see Starlink shutting down subscribers if the Belarussian government
asks them to, at least not very quickly. If the terminals are available, this
is going to make all of the national internet projects (Russia, China, Iran)
much more difficult to pull off.

~~~
toast0
My guess is Starlink isn't going to turn off subscribers for small countries,
but large countries like Russia and China may have more influence.

The real question is if there's going to be enough receivers to make a
difference.

~~~
est31
Any country which has the capability of shooting down satellites has more
influence than countries which can't do it. But even a country with like 100
million residents, if it doesn't have a space program (or someone protecting
it with a space program), it doesn't have much of a say.

~~~
enkid
Countries that have that capability can't shoot down 40000 of them.

~~~
sergeykish
A few hits would provide enough junk for runaway process

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome)

~~~
marvin
I don't think a country with space capability is seriously considering making
orbit useless over censorship. That'd be like shooting yourself in the foot
right after you've trained for a marathon, in order to ingratiate yourself
with firearms manufacturers.

~~~
sergeykish
And private company would not consider such risk either. Like with nuclear
weapon ability to shoot is enough. Funny how it works with

s/country/private company/

s/space/nuclear/, s/orbit/land/

------
kovek
I believe Briar can help the people if they believe in democracy. However, I
don't know how best to share knowledge of the Briar project to people in
Belarus.

[https://briarproject.org/](https://briarproject.org/)

~~~
dunefox
Only available for android, so it's kind of useless.

~~~
m-p-3
If the authorities forces Apple to block the hypothetical Briar app on iOS
from showing in that country then you're SOL, while you could sideload it
without any problem on Android.

This walled garden has its risks when dealing with freedom.

An alternative would be Bridgefy, but that's a closed-source product.

------
bitxbitxbitcoin
#KeepItOn.

Internet shutdowns are disastrous economically and the countries that need to
resort to them are just feeding fuel to the fire. There are countries that
simply shutdown access to certain social media platforms (not that that's
better) but shutting down the entire internet is the very definition of
desperate to me.

------
shmerl
One feed here: [https://news.liga.net/world/chronicle/vybory-prezidenta-
bela...](https://news.liga.net/world/chronicle/vybory-prezidenta-belarusi-vse-
glavnye-novosti---live)

Those fascists are really getting more and more brutal against people. And
population will soon start treating them as they treated fascists during WW2.

------
macinjosh
Almost 10 years ago I was working on a freelance contract job over Skype with
another contractor who lived in Belarus. One day he told me his country was
undergoing revolution and he had to go join. Hope that guy is OK out there.
News like this always makes me grateful for what I have.

Can these internet shutoff valves intercept dialup? Could be useful for at
least text based communication.

------
dmix
I've noticed this in other countries where there are accusations of rigging
the results that the ratios always super high, in this case 80%.

If you're going to fake an election result that had some legitimate measurable
opposition, why make it so extremely high? Does that mean nearly every vote
counting place is rigged and it's so bad they don't even bother hiding it?

Just like when Crimea voted to join Russia it was 97% [1]. People use it as
justification pretty widely but it's also hard to tell what's true in such an
environment. It's nearly impossible to trust such a number, even if a majority
potentially existed.

Note: I'm not suggesting it's at all accurate but it makes it all the more
outrageous and suspicious. The protests are then predictable.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_status_referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_status_referendum)

~~~
pydry
>Just like when Crimea voted to join Russia it was 97% [1].

In Crimea's case the majority of the population being ethnically russian, the
neglect from Ukraine, anger over the maidan, russia promising pension payments
and infrastructure investment and the opposition boycotting the vote probably
all contributed to this result.

As far as I know the main thrust of the argument against this vote from the EU
and Ukraine was that having the vote was illegal and/or unconstitutional and
thus null and void.

All Russia cared about was maintaining access to warm water ports.

~~~
linuxftw
Also, let's not forget, the Ukrainian government was just over thrown by a
western-backed coup. Of course, you won't know that from the Wikipedia cliff
notes, but that's what happened.

~~~
macinjosh
Exactly, reminds me of when Asst. Sec. of State Victoria Nuland went and
handed out sandwiches to supporters of the coup in the Maidan! And we have the
nerve to be upset when other countries meddle in our affairs? How would we
feel if a high-level Russian diplomat went out on the streets in the DC
protests and handed out food to members of antifa or the alt-right?

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ztt72mpTPXA](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ztt72mpTPXA)

~~~
dmix
I inherently don't like these sorts whataboutism used in your comment, it's a
poor approach to questioning the morality/strategy of any country and but-the-
US-did-x-minor-thing has long been used by dictators and the like to justify
horrible things. Especially when it's not even top-down but a single phone
call of some mid-tier diplomat.

That said, after reading Nuland's Wikipedia her brazenness is something I'd
expect more from the old CIA than the modern state dept. It's rich hearing her
protest against Russian interference in the sovereignty of another country
while trying to play the cocky puppet-master role in the background over the
future leadership of Ukraine.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Nuland?oldformat=true...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Nuland?oldformat=true#Leaked_private_phone_conversation)

But the main forgiving grace is that she was only assistant for Europe which
isn't top tier and in other cases has demonstrated a maverick streak, not a
person receptive to operating under authority or established norms. She’s also
super pro-intervention in general which is less popular these days.

Most importantly this is not anywhere near the level of intervention shown by
Russia. Really, it's extremely insignificant by comparison.

Russia has long been grasping at straws to build the western intervention is
just as bad conspiracy. If all Russia has is some heavy-handed backroom phone
call by a minor diplomat then the US doesn't have much to worry about.

~~~
pydry
>Most importantly this is not anywhere near the level of intervention shown by
Russia.

A country that borders it and has been repeatedly invaded via it.

------
crispyporkbites
So hacker news, what’s the tech solution to this? P2P mesh networks? Encrypted
DNS?

How do we build a network today in peaceful countries that is resilient to
state actors?

~~~
DonCopal
Spread information via Bluetooth.

------
jarnix
I think it's going to be the same during the next elections in Russia. It's
really sad to see the declaration of the main opponent (Tikhanovskaya) (1)

Protesters are in jail (more than 2000 people), a guy has been killed by a
truck, etc.

1:
[https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1293127604330016769](https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1293127604330016769)

~~~
sam_lowry_
The first video in the twitter thread you link to was _extorted_ from the
winning opposition candidate by senior Belarusian officials in the office of
the Central Electoral Commission.

The declaration she made after arriving in Lithuania is here
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DzisJ388Xs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DzisJ388Xs)

In it, she roughly says "I thought I've been hardened by this campaign and
that I will handle it. But I am still the weak woman that I was initially. I
made a difficult decision. God save you from the kind of choice I had to make.
Take care of yourself. Kids are the most important thing that you have in
life."

And indeed, the internet is __completely __down in Belarus. Phone network
still works.

~~~
liability
Ah, so they threatened her kids. Sickening.

~~~
sam_lowry_
At some point in the past, she said that her kids were safe abroad, but it
does not take a big country to successfully track and extort people anywhere
in the world.

~~~
webkike
I believe her husband, who she has been running in the stead of after he was
(unjustly) disqualified, is currently imprisoned in Belarus. That is probably
one of her concerns.

~~~
sam_lowry_
This is true.

------
ciguy
This is incredibly sad. I spent a few weeks in Belarus last summer (2019) and
everyone seemed incredibly hopeful and positive. It's a beautiful country and
Minsk is a gorgeous city.

I've been able to contact a few of my friends there sporadically over the past
few days, but have heard nothing from them for 24 hours. Initially it seemed
like a block on communication apps like WhatsApp and they could get around it
with a VPN but now it seems that it's turned into a full internet shutdown.

~~~
madaxe_again
I was there in ‘17 - and nobody, _nobody_ I met had a good word to say about
the government. The main theme was “it’s going to change, soon” - which makes
the credibility of this result all the less probable.

Sure, it’s apocryphal, but after a month there travelling all over, the only
person I met who thought lukashenko was good for the country was a
multimillionaire from “business”.

~~~
ciguy
Yeah I got the impression that people really believed things would change next
election when I was there. And similar experience regarding general opinion of
the government. Though I always take that with a grain of salt because the
people I talk to are generally not a good random sampling of the population,
definitely selection bias at work.

------
Ericson2314
Can we call this the "Kashmir playbook"? Or is there a better earlier example
of a temporary-induced communications blackout vs what e.g. the PRC does.

~~~
2Gkashmiri
yes. This is more like the kashmir playbook. stopping internet to prevent
people from communicating, to prevent an uprising where external agencies can
provide information, assistance, attacks and such. This same thing is
happening in kashmir the moment i write this so its hardly surprising more
countries havent done it yet because it is a kill switch and governments are
willing to push it if it threatens them

------
Abishek_Muthian
I presume the ISPs had shut it down on the Govt. orders. But how does VSAT
providers act in such situations? e.g. if Starlink had subscribers there,
would it need to comply with Govt. orders or would Govt.(except U.S.) have no
control over it and has to physically cease the devices(and ban it from
selling it further).

Anyways, VSAT + WiFi nodes for non-cellular mobile Internet[1] seems to be a
good case for protecting the freedom of Internet.

[1][https://needgap.com/problems/51-non-cellular-network-
mobile-...](https://needgap.com/problems/51-non-cellular-network-mobile-
internet-telecom-internet)

------
tapvt
A case where I feel amateur (ham) radio would be a potential lifeline to the
outside world.

~~~
Mediterraneo10
By international treaty, hams cannot discuss politics (like chaos following
dubious elections) over the air. In fact, in many countries it is the custom
for hams to avoid any topics that might be seen as "serious", instead they
limit their remarks to general technical matters or the weather.

~~~
tylermenezes
I'm not really sure where you've gotten that from. Can you post an actual
citation?

Here in the US, communications just need to be "of a personal nature." Part 97
prohibits (with some exceptions) commercial communications, encrypted
communications, music, and things which are otherwise illegal. It's also not
the licensing test.

It's not unusual for the US to ignore a treaty, of course, but I can't find
anything about this online either.

I've always heard "don't discuss politics" as a sort of unspoken agreement.

(KG7TUJ)

------
qserasera
US foreign policy on telecoms, freedom of speech, ect is full on clown car
right now.

Special interests are so cram packed we cant even see the windshield of the
car we're driving.

Im starting to agree that US should or potentially could have a larger share
on the legwork for telecoms, fiber, and community servicing. I'm not sure how
long starlink ect will be competitive with the bandwith, total information
speeds in the future.

------
sulam
We have an office there and people were able to use normal internet services
on Monday (albeit over VPN in some cases). Some people did have home network
service interrupted.

I haven't heard of any escalations today, but obviously my sample size is
limited (70 people in Minsk).

------
M2Ys4U
"Controversial Election"? Now that's an understatement if I've ever seen
one...

I don't think elections in Belarus have _ever_ been seen to be free and fair.

~~~
Nginx487
So-called "elections" after 5th-6th term are a bad joke. Face it, ex-Soviet
republics Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan never seazed to be totalitarian regimes
with pathetic tries to convince the world they adopted some democracy.

~~~
foepys
I don't think it's impossible for elected officials to be liked for 5 or 6
terms. In Germany Merkel is so well liked that most people (>70% according to
polls) are actually sad that she doesn't want to run for a 5th term.

~~~
dgellow
I think it’s worth pointing out that a German chancellor has very limited
power when compared to the Belorussian president.

------
yurlungur
About 20 years ago there was this optimism that Internet is this new
unstoppable thing that will liberate the world to have free communication and
knowledge sharing. Unfortunate that turned out to be such a false idea.
Probably the infrastructure of it all simply wouldn't allow it...maybe that's
what needs to change.

~~~
jaggirs
Peer to peer internet is what is missing I suppose.

~~~
betterunix2
The Internet is peer to peer by design, even if the most popular user-facing
applications do not take full advantage of peer to peer architecture.

------
kebman
I wonder how satellite links and p2p devices could circumvent state-controlled
ISPs. For instance I saw some interesting work on how to make HAM radio into
packet radio. On the other hand, there was a dark time in Norway when you
could be sentenced to death for owning the wrong type of radio.

------
ajuc
This is a full blown dictatorship imprisoning innocent people, beating up
protesters, blackmailing opposition candidate to escape the country by
imprisoning her husband.

There are already dead protesters.

Calling these elections "controversial" is like calling WW2 "a disagreement".

~~~
gorbypark
The husband was the original candidate, who was arrested and his wife ran in
his place.

------
McDyver
I had already commented this 7 months ago when Russia did the same thing.

"In the interest of the people everywhere in the world, there should always be
dial-up access points available, in different countries.

The "national interest", for whichever country, should always be the people's
interest; and restricted information has never been of any benefit except for
those restricting it"

Someone had raised the point that with the current technology, modems might
not work internationally anymore.

Is that the case? Can such a system still be put in place?

~~~
stefan_
Of course ISPs can stop modems from working. But nothing to stop a directed,
tracking satellite system like Starlink (except somewhat triangulate senders).

~~~
McDyver
The problem with relying on a single private company like SpaceX is that it
still is a single point of failure.

Who's to say that Musk, or whoever will own Starlink next, won't side with an
authoritarian regime, and do the same?

~~~
actuator
That is not even an if. He like most humans would do anything to secure his
profits. He has been mum on anything related to HK but wouldn't hesitate to
drop statements like this.[1]

[1] [https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-china-
ro...](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-china-rocks-us-
full-of-entitlement.html)

------
Cyclone_
Good example of why decentralized power is important

------
brightball
This is why I’m excited about Starlink.

~~~
sschueller
Starlink is not the solution. A private entity then decides who gets what and
the US government will also meddle in what is allowed.

Do you think Starlink would be allowed to route TikTok traffic if it got
banned?

~~~
brightball
I think people in China would be able to use Starlink without the great
firewall being in the way. Just having access not be routed through ground
based, hardwired facilities will go a long way toward preventing this type of
thing.

There's no reason to ban TikTok or other apps if people in China have
unrestricted access to US companies.

------
2Gkashmiri
this is nothing. shameless plug. I am a kashmiri typing this from 2G internet
which apprently is the only acceptable thing for the indian government to
allow me. 4G access has been stopped since 5 AUGUST 2019. a freaking year has
passed and no high speed internet. I didnt have 2G for like 7 months.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revocation_of_the_special_stat...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revocation_of_the_special_status_of_Jammu_and_Kashmir)
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_in_Kashmir#Censorsh...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_in_Kashmir#Censorship_on_internet)
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932020_Jammu_and_Ka...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932020_Jammu_and_Kashmir_lockdown)
belarus can stop internet for all they want, as long as they want. they have
the legal precedent to do so aka india via kashmir

~~~
jammucoder
I'm typing this from Jammu. Since 370 abrogation last year, number of terror
incidents in J&K is down by 40%. Every story has two sides. While I hope the
govt brings back full 4G connectivity soon, I am grateful to them for taking
the terror situation seriously.

~~~
arcticbull
Do you have any evidence limited speeds are the reason for a reduction in
terrorist incidents?

Unless you have some hard evidence that's a weak-sauce claim. Correlation _at
best_.

~~~
2Gkashmiri
children havent gone to school since 5 august 2019 in kashmir. while the world
is enjoying the benefits of zoom and stuff, everyone is stuck with 2G. that
means no zoom parties, no conference calls, recorded classes are sent via
voice notes on whatsapp groups for each class and children write simple exams
on paper and photo a picture. things are THAT DEPLORABLE and the narrative
"stopping terrorism" is given as an excuse to prevent 8 million people from
internet? what gives?

~~~
jammucoder
My friend, although I feel the same as you about the 2G connectivity issue, I
should remind you that just 3 years before 370 abrogation, schools in Kashmir
were shut for 8 Months [1] after the killing of Terrorist by security forces.
This is the J&K I have grown up in. "Stopping terrorism" sounds like just
another narrative, but not to those who have lived with its consequences.

[1] [https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/kashmir-schools-
reopen...](https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/kashmir-schools-reopen-
burhan-wani-encounter-winter-vacations-963272-2017-03-01)

~~~
2Gkashmiri
what is your point? that its okay to actively prevent schoolchildren from
studying? how does it matter schools were shut for 8 months 3 years ago. the
point is, with the current pandemic, schoolchildren are stuck at home anyways
and denying them high speed internet is denying them access to education.
plain and simple. you argue because its been done before so everyone is used
to it and thats somehow okay? its not

~~~
actuator
Although a very unfair comparison, and I don't agree with it. But I think his
point was three years back people were more than willing to protest for an
"armed millitant"[1] and a lot of that was organized through social media.

But this doesn't mean it is right, internet is a fundamental right at this
point. You can't just deprive people from it with a blanket ban.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burhan_Wani](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burhan_Wani)

~~~
2Gkashmiri
your words, "people were more than willing to protest for an "armed millitant"
"

where do you say terrorism in that sentence? did hongkong stop internet when
there were protests? or BLM which were protests organised on social media,
telegram, whatsapp, facebook? or do rules apply differently when protests are
against injustices in usa and kashmir?

~~~
actuator
As I said, I support restoring internet access but giving the HK example wrt
Kashmir is more like a strawman argument. HK situation is nowhere what
Kashmir's is. HKers are fighting for democratically elected government. Look
at what the guy in question was fighting for, here is a statement from his
Wikipedia page. [1]

> He oft-elaborated about the idea of India being entirely incompatible with
> Islam thus mandating a destruction at any cost, and aimed of unfurling the
> flag of Islam on Delhi’s Red Fort.

This is the exact sort of sentiment that have been used by the current Indian
government and many others around the world to stoke fear and champion for
their ideology.

I honestly think you do disservice to your genuine concerns when you defend
people like him and this makes it easy for your real concerns to be muddled
with such bigotry. Same with the protests. This will not help your cause and I
honestly believe whether it is Xinjiang or Kashmir, armed separatism is not
the answer and is never going to succeed. Both the countries do really need to
find a better way to deal with it though.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burhan_Wani#Biography](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burhan_Wani#Biography)

------
danielam
I just posted a link[0] with some of Friedman's response to what's going on.
TLDR: aside from Belarus' geopolitical importance and predicament, it sounds
like what's going on is largely a matter of speculation, though the events of
the last decade read in light of geopolitical realities seem to suggest
Russian involvement.

[0]
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24121275](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24121275)

~~~
bitL
It looks plausible that Russia is trying to follow the US playbook in Ukraine,
i.e. a controllable quasi-chaotic removal of a person in power that goes
against their interests and outlived his usefulness (this time enlarging
Russia), while getting a popular support for it and making sure the other
party (US) can't do the same. I don't think Russia can afford losing another
buffer separating it from EU, so anything is possible.

~~~
adventured
You say the US re Ukraine. It's actually Western European powers, which have
dramatically more influence over the situation in Ukraine - they always have,
and they always will - than the US does.

It's hilarious that people think the US controls every aspect of planet Earth,
such that it can just point its finger at things and make them the way it
wants them to be. The bipolar response to US capabilities is the amusing part,
the US is either a god toppling governments at will or entirely incompetent,
depending on whatever narrative the anti-US contingent needs to push.

~~~
bitL
I still remember the leaked Nuland's call saying "F __* the EU " implying that
US was the main change agent and the other caller expressing views that EU was
too weak to do anything and they had to act. It looks like Russia has learned
from that, manufactured consent to get rid of Lukashenko utilizing his
weaknesses and expected actions (i.e. unable to resist corrupting the
elections, suppressing protests by force) and had trained people in the
background ready to take over. I guess Russia decided to preempt any potential
US/EU action by simply replaying the same scenario they saw in Ukraine,
Georgia etc. with the ability to steer its outcome at a time that is favorable
to them (COVID-19, economy down).

~~~
gdy
Russian state-controlled TV channels are portraying protesters in a very
negative light.

~~~
bitL
I might have overestimated how smart they were or they managed to strike an
agreement with Lukashenko after a live demo of a color revolution.

~~~
gdy
Or maybe they just don't do that kind of thing. Color revolution are American
specialty.

------
ck2
wow that headline/article really hedges like there are somehow other
possibilities and they are supposed to be inclusive? I mean he's an
authoritarian in power since 1991, it's a tyrants lifelong dream

I wonder how the USA's 2020 is going to be written by outsiders hedging how it
all could have been somehow legitimate.

------
linuxftw
Shutting down the internet is more or less as the major online platforms
colluding to shutdown one side of the political spectrum.

Sometimes it's the government, sometimes it's people that aspire to be in the
government and aren't yet. It's all about control.

------
throw1234651234
Context: Russian Mercs in Belarus:
[https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/belarus-arrests-
dozen...](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/belarus-arrests-dozens-
russian-mercenaries-state-media-200729143155990.html)

~~~
OnACoffeeBreak
There's no context in the above link.

~~~
throw1234651234
It's background to the situation. Direct background.

