
Facebook Usage Declines for the First Time in Infinite Dial History - sharjeelsayed
https://www.edisonresearch.com/facebook-declines-first-time-infinite-dial-history/
======
AndrewKemendo
My mind is boggled that technology analysts still haven't figured out that
Facebook the company completely expected that Facebook the product would
eventually wane.

So they acquired what they thought would be the future and would push growth
there, which is exactly what is happening.

~~~
Nicksil
What's to say "technology analysts" haven't figured that out? All we're seeing
here is that _a thing happened_ and somebody is reporting on said happening.

~~~
AndrewKemendo
It's certainly possible that reporters know this and are leaving it out of
reporting intentionally, because it would make the story less juicy. In which
case they are intentionally making a story that lacks context in order to
drive clicks and should be called out as such.

Or they don't know it and are lacking in contextualuzation.

Either way it's bad journalism.

~~~
nkozyra
Is it? This is about Facebook the product. Suggesting that this is planned by
Facebook is not based in fact or supported by sources.

As best I can tell this is not a news organization, they're simply showing an
interesting data point

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TorKlingberg
I keep thinking I should go and short Facebook, even though I never trade
individual stocks. It's just so clear to me that Facebook will crash and burn
in the next couple of years. They are like Nokia in 2008: Still a high market
share, but doomed.

Then I remember that Facebook owns Instagram and WhatsApp. They're doing
great, partially because nobody thinks of Instagram as Facebook.

~~~
chime
Oculus Quest is coming soon too. Unlike all other VR offerings, this one might
actually breakthrough into the living rooms across the world because of the
balance between performance and ease of use.

~~~
chaosbutters
HTC Vive is so much better than Oculus but anything that drives VR adoption I
appreciate. Vive is set up so much quicker, has a wireless capability now and
has a bigger platform in industry.

A competition between Vive, OR, and hololens in the AR/VR market would be much
appreciated.

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smallgovt
>> A total of 2,000 persons were interviewed to explore Americans’ use of
digital platforms and new media. From January 4, 2018 to February 11, 2018,
telephone interviews were conducted with respondents age 12 and older who were
selected via Random Digit Dial (RDD) sampling for both cell phones and
landlines.

That's it? 2,000 people surveyed? I actually don't doubt the conclusions, but
given the shoddy website, old publication date, and duplicative pieces with
negative outlook ([https://www.edisonresearch.com/infinite-
dial-2019/](https://www.edisonresearch.com/infinite-dial-2019/) and
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19322448](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19322448)),
this seems like the work of someone with an ulterior motive.

I would bet serious money with even odds that this article was upvoted with
fraudulent HN accounts. I wish I could help investigate.

~~~
Axsuul
This are how polls are conducted. You don't need to ask the entire country
cause statistically all you need to do is survey a diverse enough subset. A
low single digit margin of error is simply not worth surveying orders of
magnitude more people over.

This is similar to how presidential approval ratings are conducted, for
example, by Gallup in which their sample sizes are even smaller.

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samfisher83
I think I read in another study they are just moving to Instagram.

~~~
j79
You are correct.

From their study, they show that while Facebook dropped, Instagram increased
(34, 36, and 39% from 2017 - 2019, respectively).

WhatsApp doesn't have tracking data for 2017/18, but 2019 shows it at 18%.

Here's their downloadable presentation with additional info:
[http://www.edisonresearch.com/wp-
content/uploads/2019/03/Inf...](http://www.edisonresearch.com/wp-
content/uploads/2019/03/Infinite-Dial-2019-PDF-1.pdf)

~~~
graeme
Am seeing early signs of an instagram decrease. People are deleting their
accounts, posting less, and unfollowing people.

I think the switch to stories had an impact. Positive at first, but negative
indirectly, as it introduced the “mute” mechanism. At first you could just do
this with stories, but now you can mute someone’s posts while still
“following” them.

Before, on instagram, if someone followed you, you really knew they followed
you. So people sort of self-policed their posts, as they knew they’d get
unfollowed if they were excessive. And there was a lot of engagement on posts,
because 100% of followers saw it.

But now you can follow but not follow. So on the one hand some people are
pushing more posts, on the other hand you have a lot of non-genuine followers.
This discourages posting.

I have more followers but fewer likes than before, and I also follow more
people and see less. The platform feels more hollow than it used to, in the
same way facebook does.

~~~
fumar
I left Instagram for 8 months. I came back last month and noticed every 3 or 4
posts is now an ad. That was not the case when I stopped using it. As ads
increase the hallow feeling increases. This is the same as visiting a blog or
site with zero ads vs the extreme of visiting a site with ads in every nook
and cranny. I am not against ads but there should be a conservative approach
to embedding paid messaging.

Also similar to FB, the instagram algorithm is always changing. The fact that
your feed is less real-time removes part of the essence of instagram. I liked
knowing that my feed was a 1:1 connection to the real world. Now it is less
that and more a collection of posts from the people I follow. One of my core
ideas around young folks leaving facebook is for the same exact reason.

When you are in grade school, life moments occur everyday and sometimes within
a few hours. Think of nailing your first skateboard trick, joining bands, or
making the varsity team, etc. Those are all potential posts on any social
channel. If you are the consumer of those posts, assuming the same age as the
poster, you want to see them in a real-life sequence. It would feel fake or
hollow to see the posts (that happened in your school, maybe at your game)
contextualized against ads or in a wrong order.

~~~
bamboozled
I came to say the same, I can already feel myself being pulled towards
removing my account as the ads are lame and the algorithm sucks, I miss things
I wanted to see all the time.

I like it but it’s also being filled with drivel and self-promotion to the
point of becoming monotonous.

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sdinsn
> the portion of Americans reporting that they currently ever use the service

Am I dumb or does anyone else not understand what "currently ever use" means
exactly in this context? How is that different than just saying "currently
use"?

"Ever" implies independence of time, but matched with "currently" it means
what?

(English is my first and only language; I might just be dumb)

~~~
tantalor
One interpretation: "ever" as in "anytime in a time interval", "current" as in
"the last 60 days".

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Bombthecat
Facebook will just buy the new competitors. Just like they did with Instagram
and WhatsApp.

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bamboozled
This was published a year ago!

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Bud
Dated 21 Feb 2018.

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jibanes
where are the facebook users going to?

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dec0dedab0de
I didnt read the article, but has anyone else noticed a ton of ads for the
Facebook app lately?

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Simon_says
You're asking the wrong forum.

