
As China's workforce dwindles, the world scrambles for alternatives - anigbrowl
http://www.wsj.com/articles/as-chinas-workforce-dwindles-the-world-scrambles-for-alternatives-1448293942?tesla=y
======
jxramos
Wow, I find it really bold that WSJ has so openly dug into the demographic
issue. I've previously only heard about it so openly discussed in conservative
circles (eg [http://foreignpolicy.com/2009/10/20/the-return-of-
patriarchy...](http://foreignpolicy.com/2009/10/20/the-return-of-
patriarchy/)). They pretty much hit all the major areas with fertility and
women and all the other stuff lined up
[http://graphics.wsj.com/2050-demographic-
destiny/](http://graphics.wsj.com/2050-demographic-destiny/). It'll be an
interesting century with this unprecedented implosion.

~~~
djur
Marxists and other leftists have identified the need for cheap labor as a
major long-term weakness in capitalism for over a century. The question has
always been how long technological advances and increased globalization can
provide the growth necessary for social stability.

Liberals might not think about it in the same way, but they're unlikely to see
a reduction in population growth as a bad thing on its own terms. Certainly,
they're very unlikely to propose natalist policies as a solution.

~~~
afarrell
Isn't it also an even major weakness in socialism? After all, if your society
is committed to providing a minimum standard of living for the elderly and
disabled, that depends upon labor.

~~~
danharaj
How much labor do you think is needed to provide water, food, shelter,
clothing, electricity, household machines (even a 3d printer), computation,
and entertainment for everyone?

The hours I put into a CRUD app last week are wasted labor as far as I'm
concerned, but I need to pay rent to a landlord and the only people with money
are people who want me to make them even more money.

~~~
afarrell
Well, given that you have just described the vast majority of my household
expenses, I would say a lot of labor goes into providing that.

Also, you forgot healthcare.

------
dcw303
I'm skeptical that home 3D printing is going to have much impact on
manufacturing consumer goods. We've had inexpensive laser printers for a
couple of decades now, yet there's not many people printing out books at home.

The printers would have to be very user friendly and very fast to compete with
the convenience of buying finished goods.

~~~
cordite
As an owner and user of a 3D printer, I don't expect the scene to get to
regular household users within the next 5 years.

Difference in material qualities can totally influence how you prepare the
models for printing. For example, after I switched to a less brittle PLA
filament, breakaway is totally different. The model may have less
opportunities for failure during printing, but the plastic is less convenient
to remove after the print is finished. Further sanding is needed for breakaway
spots and arbitrary extrusion defects.

I also find that super glue is a bad idea for assembling what is larger than
can be printed at once.

On a side note, if there were an automated solution for breaking apart a
model, adding peg holes or woodwork inspired nailless/screwless mesh finger
pegs would really fulfill a need for users with small economic 3D printers

~~~
est
> I don't expect the scene to get to regular household users within the next 5
> years.

I don't expect any 3D modeling software get to regular household. Did anyone
really install Google Earth or something?

------
zhemao
> replacing dozens of workers who scrub Levi’s blue jeans with sandpaper to
> give them the worn look that American consumers find stylish

This really made me laugh. Levi paying Chinese workers to quite labor-
intensively lower the quality of their jeans because American consumers prefer
it that way. I really wonder what they must think of us.

------
peteretep
Let's hope it's an industrializing force for African nations...

~~~
ghaff
It hasn't so far--even prior to the rise of Chinese manufacturing--not sure
why it would now. Part of the problem is that although a lot of Chinese
manufacturing is obviously driven by low labor costs, there's also a stable
and investment-friendly (if hardly democratic) government, a well-developed
ecosystem around manufacturing, and capital.

As the article says, I expect more automation and I'll probably bet more on
further Pac Rim manufacturing than other areas.

~~~
alecco
Actually, the chinese are comfy bribing their way in african nations. And they
are changing the continent quite fast. It's the unreported story of the
decade.

Check out this lecture:

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycHsaGOModU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycHsaGOModU)

~~~
chipsy
I see Africa now like China in the late 80's or early 90's - the change is
there, but the perceptions haven't shifted yet and anyone doing business there
faces a situation of chaotic progress. A good place to be if you like extremes
of risk/reward.

~~~
jpatokal
Except that "Africa" is _way_ less coherent than China. There's not a lot in
common for doing business in, say, Rwanda (notionally clean & business-
friendly), Eritrea (autarchic dictatorship) and DR Congo (basically total
chaos).

------
AnimalMuppet
Maybe the "alternative" is higher wages for unskilled labor.

~~~
imron
That's one alternative, but it also skews the incentive of the workforce to
become non-skilled e.g. why spend X years studying at university to be a
lawyer, engineer, programmer, or whatever if you can do unskilled work for a
similar/higher wage.

It's not a problem initially, but will become so once you have a generation or
two of a largely unskilled workforce, especially if the work then dries up.

~~~
darawk
That's not really how economics works. If you raise the wages of unskilled
laborers, then indeed the effect you describe happens. However, the
marketplace still demands engineers, and so any drop in the supply will lead
to an increase in wages until some equilibrium point is reached.

~~~
klipt
And within 20 years engineers will be building robots to replace most
unskilled laborers anyway.

The real issue is, what happens when robots can replace engineers?

~~~
TeMPOraL
Freedom for all mankind, hopefully.

Or death and bloodshed as more and more people get excluded from the economy
and are left to starve. It's up to us to pick a direction, and the time for it
is starting now.

~~~
gnaritas
Yup, and it looks to be going the death and bloodshed route, but that's no
surprise, it's what we do.

------
RaSoJo
I found the fact, that a labour shortage is driving advancements in
technology, a big positive. The other way around would have been a catastrophe
- with millions having left their farms and then to be left without a job in
the city.

------
gcb0
wife studies sweatshops. China already feel way behind India. and most china
companies already outsource labour to south east Africa.

------
lukasm
[http://paulgraham.com/submarine.html](http://paulgraham.com/submarine.html)

~~~
slowernet
Ok, on whose behalf do you suspect this story was planted? Industrial robot
manufacturers? One of China's manufacturing rivals? Levis?

I have no inside information; I can't say whether it was or it wasn't. But
dropping a link like this and running is tantamount to writing "9/11 was an
inside job".

------
vonnik
Ever since News Corp. bought the WSJ in 2007, the nutjob conservatism of its
Op-Ed page has permeated and corrupted its formerly excellent and fairly
objective news reporting. A lot of the best journalists have left, and the
rest know which drummer they march to.

One aspect of US conservative thought today is nationalist hostility toward
China (cf. Trump), and schadenfreude over anything that takes China down a
notch. Unfortunately, WSJ reporters facing those incentives will have a harder
time being reality-based. They seek instead to flatter their readers'
sensibilities and obey their editors' orders. This leads to sloppy arguments.
Take this line, for example:

> By 2050, the working-age population will decline by 212 million, estimates
> the United Nations—> roughly as many people as live in Brazil, the world’s
> fifth most-populous nation.

I doubt that the UN report takes into account Beijing's decision, published
three weeks ago, to transform its one-child policy into a two-child policy,
which is just the latest in a series of moves intended to shift its
demographic outlook.

[http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/29/asia/china-one-child-
policy/](http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/29/asia/china-one-child-policy/)

China's rising wages are the inevitable, logical result of China getting
richer; i.e. they are a sign of China's success in modernizing itself.

~~~
blisterpeanuts
Could you give some examples of the journalists who have left? I've subscribed
on and off to the Journal since the late 80s, and pretty much continuously to
the online version since '99, and I have not detected a decline in quality.
The paper has certainly changed over the years, and seems less stuffy and
stodgy than it once was, reflecting the generational change in the readership
and the staff. It's about as conservative as it always was, though.

Regarding the two child announcement, the article pointed out that it was
unlikely to affect the population decline because not that many Chinese want
more than one child, and in any event it would take at least 16 years for the
policy to have an effect. I'm not convinced that people want just one child,
however. It seems likely that many couples who already have a girl will want
to try for a boy.

~~~
vonnik
> Could you give some examples of the journalists who have left?

There have been successive waves of departures, many of whom have left for the
WSJ's rivals in financial news: Reuters and Bloomberg. I was a journalist for
years, and this exodus is well known in the industry. For example, Laurie
Hayes, deputy managing editor at the WSJ, left for Bloomberg in 2008. The mass
departures of WSJ staff is credited with transforming Bloomberg internally.
Many more names are cited here:

[http://mediamatters.org/blog/2011/04/25/exodus-former-wsj-
st...](http://mediamatters.org/blog/2011/04/25/exodus-former-wsj-staffers-
speak-out-against-mu/179020)

[http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/01/more-wsj-
ve...](http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/01/more-wsj-veterans-
land-at-bloomberg/)

> in any event it would take at least 16 years for the policy to have an
> effect

I agree that it will take time for the policy to take effect, but the article
made a lot of predictions beyond that time horizon, which I believe are
overly, willfully pessimistic.

~~~
blisterpeanuts
Thanks for those links; that Media Matters article in particular was quite
informative. Sounds like there really has been a big turnover at the Journal;
a shame. I wonder, though, how much of the old Journal's approach would work
in this one-screen sound bite era that we live in?

