
Tesla Model 3 Hits Production - mfrommil
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/07/03/business/tesla-model-3-elon-musk.html?action=click&module=Discovery&pgtype=Homepage
======
Munkum
There is no way on god's earth that Tesla can ramp up production like that. I
suspect the first cars that they sell will roll off the VP tools and not off
the main lines anyway. With a lack of product maturation the quality of the
first cars will be appalling too.

I'd bet that the guys at the coal face are wanting to kill their PR people
right now for making promises that they know will get broken.

Disclosure: work in the automotive industry designing high volume production
lines and planning vehicle launches.

~~~
stupidcar
I'm reminded a little of how the Blackberry board supposedly watched the
iPhone announcement and insisted it was fake, as there was "no way" someone
could build and profitably sell a phone with that feature-set.

Tesla might not do what they're promising. Hell, they _probably_ won't do what
they're promising. But pronouncing something impossible on the basis of
industry experience can be a dangerous thing. Some things are considered
unthinkable and impossible only until someone finds a way to do them, after
which they are retroactively declared obvious and inevitable.

Certainly, Tesla seem to have the right ideas: Electric cars are inherently
simpler, mechanically speaking, than gasoline cars, and they're leveraging
this further by reducing the options and variability on the Model 3 to the
absolute minimum. They also hired Peter Hochholdinger from Audi as VP of
production, and he is pursuing a pretty extreme form of Industry 4.0[1] — with
everything in their production process being instrumented, automated and
designed for easy replacement.[2]

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industry_4.0](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industry_4.0)
[2] [http://www.mljournal-
digital.com/meleadershipjournal/october...](http://www.mljournal-
digital.com/meleadershipjournal/october_2016?pg=1#pg1)

~~~
nradov
If electric cars are so simple, why is the Tesla Model S so unreliable?

[https://www.truedelta.com/Tesla-
Model-S/reliability-1095](https://www.truedelta.com/Tesla-
Model-S/reliability-1095)

Conversely, the Toyota Prius is one of the most reliable cars. Yet it is
mechanically complex with both an internal combustion engine _and_ an electric
motor, plus a CVT. So clearly engineering skill and manufacturing quality are
bigger factors than the drive train.

~~~
arethuza
How unreliable are ICEs these days - maybe its just me, but I've never had an
engine problem in nearly 20 years of owning cars. Electrical problems,
suspension problems, drainage problems - had all of them but never had a
problem with the actual engine.

~~~
Siecje
What is a drainage problem?

~~~
arethuza
I had a Passat a few years back and it had a design flaw where the tray that
holds the battery has drain holes that can get blocked and if they do it
overflows into the interior of the car.

I used to park my car under trees that dropped leaves which blocked the
battery compartment drainage holes and as I am in Scotland it can get quite
wet. Ended up with car filled with 1" of water.... Interior of car had to be
stripped, dried out and put back in by the dealer.

~~~
saturdaysaint
I'm always tempted to test drive stylish German cars but I swear 90% of the
maintenance horror stories I've heard in the last 15 years have involved a
German car.

~~~
Tloewald
VW in particular has a pretty poor reputation for long term reliability (also
see Consumer Reports et al). The stories I hear about American cars, by
contrast, tend to be poor reliability soon after purchase (followed by solid
long term reliability)

------
zerohp
Not that it means much, but I saw a semi trailer full of new Model 3 on I-80
heading east near Des Moines Iowa today. All of them were black and still had
factory wrap on the panels.

~~~
tcoppi
Model 3 or Model S? I suspect you mean Model S.

~~~
zerohp
The front ends were covered by plastic wrap but I am certain they were Model 3
by the shape of the headlights and the overall length of the car. I regret
that I didn't get a picture.

I assume they are press cars.

~~~
tcoppi
That is quite interesting. I didn't think they made anywhere near that many
beta Model 3s to be shipping them like that.

------
greenyoda
Previous discussion:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14688616](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14688616)

~~~
mfrommil
Thanks. Didn't see that post yesterday before posting this one.

------
Fej
So is it likely (or even possible) that TSLA really is the most shorted stock
on Earth? I've seen this tossed around repeatedly, although perhaps it's just
a rumor.

On the other hand,

> Tesla said that it's now "rare" for a new Model X to have "initial quality
> problems." [1]

doesn't sound very pretty.

[1] [http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/03/tesla-
delivers-22000-vehicles...](http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/03/tesla-
delivers-22000-vehicles-in-q2-2017.html)

~~~
_pmf_
Tying novel ideas in a mass road vehicle is a very, very bad idea. If these
ideas include supply chain and QC shortcuts, it pretty much guarantees
failure. I applaud Tesla for "making EV sexy" and pushing existing OEMs, but
unless Musk gets his ego in check and starts tackling the boring (no pun
intended) problems instead of trying to promote himself as autonomous driving
messiah, I don't see the first batch of mass produced 3s as having a high
chance of being acceptable.

~~~
aquadrop
Why do you think they don't know about "boring" problems? They've been
producing cars for years, it's their third model... Also, Musk isn't promoting
himself as autonomous driving messiah, but as Mars colonization messiah :)

~~~
kbob
Model 3 is the fourth model. Roadster, S, X, 3. Unless you're counting S and X
as one, since they share the same platform.

~~~
aquadrop
Yes, you're right it's 3rd or 4th model depending on the way you count, main
point still is it's not the first model :)

------
jondubois
I wonder if Tesla is worried that this new model might cannibalize its more
expensive, more profitable model S?

Also, I should think that the level of automation required to produce a mass
market car on the scale necessary to be profitable would be insane... And I
bet Toyota, GM and all the others have patents on many, if not all of these
production automation technologies.

~~~
cjrp
> I wonder if Tesla is worried that this new model might cannibalize its more
> expensive, more profitable model S?

Obligatory "If you don't cannibalise yourself, someone else will" Steve Jobs
quote! I see them aimed at different markets though; I could never justify
buying a Model S, but a Model 3 is definitely feasible (especially in the UK
where petrol prices are high).

~~~
mcv
We only buy cars second hand (I think we paid €11k for our Prius), so I'm
afraid we've got to wait a bit longer.

------
radious
HOV lanes in Bay Area will get so crowded...

~~~
pmalynin
Assuming they're not now. 8-9 AM work-days it seems that the HOV lane is only
marginally faster. Going back from Mountain View to San Jose at 4-5 is equally
as bad with traffic grinding to a halt near the Montegue Express exit in any
lane.

It's kind of ridiculous actually because even if you're in a 4 person carpool
its pretty horrific.

~~~
DannyBee
That's California for you:

The people who use the lanes, by and large, don't need them[1], and
simultaneously, California subsidizes and encourages electric car driving
while having, by far, the absolute worst electrical infrastructure in the
country, with no _real_ plan to improve it[2]

Don't worry, somehow, they are saving the environment in all this, despite the
fact that most cars these days probably put out less emissions than a family
that ate too many beans.

[1] They are pretty much rich people lanes. None of the very large number of
day laborers, etc, could afford an electric car (and there are no electric
trucks they could use), but also probably spend significantly more away from
their families than people who do use them.

[2] Yes, the math says that if everyone in california drove an electric car,
we'd be in trouble. Even if they only charge off peak. The same is even more
true of the US, I did the math out in an earlier HN post, IIRC it comes out to
something ridiculous like double or triple all current residential electric
usage on a yearly basis.

~~~
dfabulich
> Don't worry, somehow, they are saving the environment in all this, despite
> the fact that most cars these days probably put out less emissions than a
> family that ate too many beans.

First, this comparison is wrong. Cars generate roughly 5,000 liters of of CO2
per gallon. A human passes about one liter of gas per day, maybe two.

But even if you were right, what's the point of this comparison? We can
eliminate the CO2 emissions from cars, but we can't do that to people, and we
really need to cut these emissions a lot, or the earth will cook.

[https://ollilaasanen.wordpress.com/2011/10/08/humans-cows-
me...](https://ollilaasanen.wordpress.com/2011/10/08/humans-cows-methane-and-
global-warming/) Humans pass 1L per day

[https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/greenhouse-gas-
emissions-t...](https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/greenhouse-gas-emissions-
typical-passenger-vehicle-0) Cars generate ~9kg CO2/gallon

[http://www.aqua-calc.com/calculate/volume-to-
weight/substanc...](http://www.aqua-calc.com/calculate/volume-to-
weight/substance/carbon-blank-dioxide) CO2 is 1.8 grams per liter

~~~
dlgeek
Furthermore, human CO2 emissions come from plants as part of the normal carbon
cycle - they're not an ecological problem. It's carbon-from-the-ground that's
a problem.

~~~
wyager
CO2 is fungible.

~~~
sadface
Yes, but surface-level biology is pretty much carbon neutral. All of the
carbon you exhale to the atmosphere comes from the food you eat, which gets
its carbon from the atmosphere via photosynthesis.

Obviously there are edge cases, but by and large Global Warming is happening
because we're pulling carbon out of the ground and putting it in the sky.

~~~
schiffern
The catch is, modern agriculture isn't limited to "surface-level biology."

> _All of the carbon you exhale to the atmosphere comes from the food you eat,
> which gets its carbon from the atmosphere via photosynthesis._

This is true, but also misleading. When you include the nitrous oxide,
methane, diesel fuel, and loss of soil carbon, agriculture is actually net
CO2e positive.

>Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (24% of 2010 global greenhouse gas
emissions): Greenhouse gas emissions from this sector come mostly from
agriculture (cultivation of crops and livestock) and deforestation. This
estimate does not include the CO2 that ecosystems remove from the atmosphere
by sequestering carbon in biomass, dead organic matter, and soils, _which
offset approximately 20% of emissions from this sector._

So in other words, globally our agriculture emits 5 units of CO2e for every 1
unit sequestered by photosynthesis.

[https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-
emiss...](https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-
data)

[https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/ghg_report/ghg_nit...](https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/ghg_report/ghg_nitrous.php)

When you include the entire supply chain from field-to-fork (agriculture,
transport, refrigeration, processing, preparation) the general rule of thumb
is that 10 kilocalories of fossil fuel energy go into making 1 kilocalorie of
food.

[https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-
in/10-calories-...](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-
in/10-calories-in-1-calorie-out-the-energy-we-spend-on-food/)

~~~
sadface
Great information here. This is well understood on my end. I just wanted to
make a quick point because the topic was on food consumption and I don't think
many people ever truly connect the dots between carbon atoms in the atmosphere
-> carbon atoms in their salad -> carbon atoms in their breath (atmosphere).

~~~
schiffern
Indeed, and I should have been clear that I was elaborating on your excellent
post, not suggesting any error/omission/ignorance on your part. My intent was
to comment on the _idea_ ("if you just consider this one fact, it could be
misleading"), not to say anything negative about you personally. My apologies
that it came across that way.

So no worries, and no criticism intended. After all, how could anyone say
_everything_ that's possibly relevant in one comment? And more to the point,
why in hell would anyone want to? :)

------
synaesthesisx
Any fellow reservation holders have an idea of when to start expecting our
units to roll out? I'm told the #'s are not sequential and correspond to
regions instead...

~~~
tachyonbeam
[https://teslanomics.co/model-3-delivery-
estimator](https://teslanomics.co/model-3-delivery-estimator)

And accompanying YouTube video:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcgvAYKro10&t=1648s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcgvAYKro10&t=1648s)

~~~
mparlane
An extra month delay if you are an existing tesla owner?

~~~
pkulak
You get it faster if you're already an owner.

~~~
mparlane
Yep, I clearly got my Yes/No around the wrong way....

------
ericfrederich
I've heard you're not supposed to buy these cars, but lease them somehow. The
article mentions the buying price, but what about leasing?

------
DigitalTraffic
The last time I felt like this was with Fiskar.

Here's hoping they are successful and safe too!

------
onetokeoverthe
How long do the batteries last? I've heard replacement batteries will be
$20,000.

~~~
Qub3d
According to Tesla [0], 8 years is the minimum expected lifetime. After that
point the battery will still work just fine, but the capacity can drop below
80% of total.

[0]: [https://www.tesla.com/blog/infinite-mile-
warranty](https://www.tesla.com/blog/infinite-mile-warranty)

------
columnm
Finally! Thanks for sharing.

