

Nick Bostrom on Superintelligence - EconTalker
http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2014/12/nick_bostrom_on.html

======
georgeecollins
So in the vein of: "the future is already here, just not evenly distributed.."
Where is this superintelligence being built now? Where do the people here
think the first superintelligence come from?

~~~
AndrewKemendo
_Where do the people here think the first superintelligence come from?_

This question is actually the topic of my masters research which will be
published Summer of '15.

The top probability estimates are as follows in order of our likelihood:

1\. Private for-profit company

2\. State (Government/Military) laboratory

3\. University laboratory

4\. Open source project

5\. Lone Wolf developer

These are based largely on where incentives for AGI implementation lie, where
funding is most available and where activity is occurring.

~~~
georgeecollins
Great answer! Thank you. Since you seem to really have thought about this:
what would be the way we would have to know that Superintelligence had been
achieved?

I can imagine a situation where someone suspects that one of these projects
listed above is "superintelligent". What would be the test of that?

~~~
AndrewKemendo
_what would be the way we would have to know that Superintelligence had been
achieved?_

The AGI community hasn't agreed on a test or metric, however the best answer I
have found in a study is the work of José Hernández-Orallo and his "Anytime
intelligence test" [1]. Practically though, I personally think we will know
once enough people are convinced, a kind of "know it when I see it" [2]
situation.

[1]
[http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0004370210...](http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0004370210001554)
[2]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it)

------
warble
Just listened to this on my way in to work. I was intrigued by the point that
was made by the host that the real world is complex, and that increasing
intelligence has diminishing returns. Making something a million times more
intelligent than humans may only make it twice as effective. Something I
hadn't thought of before.

