

North Korea declares war on South Korea - full declaration - richardjordan
http://live.reuters.com/Event/North_Korea/70001409

======
kapnobatairza
Just so I can defuse lots of the commentary that always comes up whenever
North Korea is mentioned:

1) Most of NK's artillery is not in range of Seoul, the few that are in range
of Seoul are in range of the northern part of Greater Seoul (essentially
suburbs), which are nowhere near as populated as Seoul proper. NK has a very
small amount mobile artillery which could be repositioned, but US/SK artillery
and reconnaissance will be able to hit mobile artillery attempted to move
within range of Seoul before it can get close enough to do any damage. Our
missiles go further, hit harder, hit more accurately, than theirs do.

2) North Korea will not engage in a mainland war before receiving
authorization or warning China, at which point Chinese tourists will be
recalled from Seoul and Jeju. China will not allow North Korea to threaten the
affluent Chinese tourists that frequent those area, and should North Korea
attempt to do so it will be facing an invasion from the Chinese border, and
most likely Russian border.

3) North Korea will likely try to hit a few small islands as part of their
saber rattling in order to receive aid and will not escalate any further
without North Korea losing everything in a matter of moments.

4) I'm in South Korea right now (Seoul actually) and I can tell you there is
no tension in the air over this issue on the part of Koreans.

5) North Korea has no way to remotely deliver a nuclear device. The only
countries that have developed miniturized nukes that the North Koreans could
"carry" into the country are the US, Soviet Union, and possibly Israel. They
have no "suitcase nuke" nor the technology to develop one. The only way they
could "nuke" Seoul is if they build one within Seoul.

~~~
EliRivers
You have a great deal of faith in China's ability to control the DPRK. Given
that China is now part of the international community behind the latest
sanctions (which this action is at least partly a response to), why do you
think the DPRK leadership will require Beijing's approval for their actions?

Have you visited the North? When I was there last year the Juche philosophy
was as much a part of everyone as the casual references to the Great Leader
being the Sun of the World; the attitude amongst the people I spoke to was
that China was, whilst a friendly neighbour, not necessary to the wellbeing of
the DPRK (no comment on how true that actually is - just on what I gathered of
people's attitudes).

As it is, I do agree this is just more sabre-rattling and it is to be taken as
seriously as all the previous sabre-rattling. The real announcement of
continuing the war will be troop movements and the like, which will be very
easily seen in advance.

~~~
fakeer
>> _why do you think the DPRK leadership will require Beijing's approval for
their actions?_

Well, food is one reason. China, NK being almost cut-off from most of world,
practically feeds NK and some other nations keep sending ration in aid from
time to time.

>> _no comment on how true that actually is_

China was one support that helped North Korean Kim family rule NK for so long
and strategically keep the nation cut-off from rest of the world, effectively
pushing it into a modern stone-age. Now, it's up to everyone to debate what
was China's ulterior motive behind this. Maybe they wanted a loose cannon or a
time bomb in the neighbourhood under their (virtual) control. But now, it
seems the pumpkin prince has actually lost it and if China is true in its
demonstration and expression that NK really doesn't listen to it anymore, it
is a matter of grave concern.

You were there. Can you comment the lifestyle and standard of living of common
people, middle class(if there's one) and the ruling elite(i.e. military
elite)? Or in what conditions the majority of people live? I see one reason to
keep the nation cut off from the world is that the ruling elite (other than
the Kims) can retain their status and aristocrat like clout in the country
while their kids studies overseas(current Kim probably studied in
Switzerland/Europe) and prospers.

~~~
EliRivers
"middle class(if there's one)"

Whilst Western definitions of middle-class tend to involve our economy in some
way, the best I could manage would be those living in the cities and towns.
They get (not brilliantly reliable) electricity, access to healthcare, housing
that varied from buildings genuinely I thought were abandoned up to blocks of
flats that weren't in too horrific shape. In the cities there was some
(overcrowded and often dark) public transport. Towns relied on bicycles and
lots of walking.

The majority of people were those living in villages. I passed these over and
over again on the roads (by which I mean, I could see them from the road -
they were usually NOT on the road network themselves, presumably by design).
Buildings were of brick or other such material. Vehicles extremely rare. Oxen
extremely rare (and clearly prized as ploughing tools). Three-person ploughing
teams depressing common (looked like a shovel and two ropes tied to the head -
one person jams it into the field, everyone lifts it and turns the earth,
everyone takes one step forwards and repeats, over and over and over again). I
didn't see much evidence of electricity in these villages. They're effectively
cut off; there's no way for Kim Citizen to decide to wander over to the next
village. Rivers used for washing clothes. People walking a long, long way to
the fields they were working. The number of people engaged in working the land
was enormous. For someone from the West used to the idea that a very small
percentage of the population need be engaged in actually growing the food,
it's a shock to see people in the 21st century farming effectively by hand.
The evidence of the famine and also massive deforestation is clear if you
look. Every scrap of land that someone can can reach and might support crops
is being farmed. There are vast, vast numbers of saplings with little white
stone circles around them (presumably to mark it). In the last decade, they
were clearly in a very bad way for solid fuel.

I agree that keeping the population in the dark is a very effective means of
control. The locals I met were very keen to flick through what magazines etc
I'd brought with me and wanted to know simple things about my life.

There was a famine before, and it didn't end the regime. There is a persistent
myth that if a people gets hungry enough, they have a revolution, but it
didn't happen in China and it didn't happen in the DPRK. I would be hesitant
to think that simply cutting off the food would be so effective in quickly
changing the DPRK foreign policy.

~~~
fakeer
Oh dear. Everywhere I read the horror stories and every person who has been
there says the same. The people their have actually no choice. That's the
reason they won't even have their _Korean spring_. In comparison Africa and
Arab is luxury then.

I guess the big emancipators ought to rather emancipate them first!

~~~
EliRivers
It's done in a number of small ways. I passed through military checkpoints
every time I left a town, and every time I arrived at one. In one, we had a
police escort to the hotel (although, to be honest, I suspect the policeman
just really wanted to turn on his siren and ride in front clearing the
pedestrians off the road - exciting day for him). If you don't have a mandated
reason to visit another town (or even leave your own town), you aren't doing
it. There will be no underground network of revolutionaries without the
ability to find each other or communicate.

Food; food was allocated (in the towns, at least - I don't know about
villages) by your official food distribution centre, which often seemed to be
the ground floor of the building you were living on. You got a few days in
advance at a time. If you ever decided to try something (be it make a run for
the border or have a revolution), you'd have three days' worth of food to make
it work. Speaking of running for the (north) border, you'd better be able to
make it on foot within a few days. You'll have to stay clear of the roads
(what roads there are) so it'll be yomping over fields.

The media is the state media. There are a number of smuggled radios etc on the
country. It's very hard to get figures on this; they seem to be clustered
towards the north border where they drift in from China, and in the cities.
The government control of the airwaves is not absolute, but they do engage in
jamming and so forth.

It is as people say. The country is to a large extent a prison camp. Some of
it is an "open" prison, some of it is working three generations of a family to
death, sentencing children alongside their grandparents because they upset
someone with power (or had something the powerful person wanted - many
Japanese of Korean origin who foolishly moved there found themselves stripped
of all the wealth they brought with them and reduced to poverty or simply
dispatched to a labour camp) or maybe just said the wrong thing (turning each
other in does not seem to be uncommon).

A DPRK spring in the style of the Arab spring is not, in my opinion, on the
cards.

------
goldfeld
It's interesting how every other story on HN's frontpage right now seems to
dwarf in relevance, compared to this. The full weight of a declaration of war
simply stated like this stopped me in my tracks. And coming from a completely
unpredictable and strongly armed regime, it's the stuff of legend, and a sorry
situation that the world has to see it become real.

I hope South Korea has a plan to minimize civilian casualties, if it comes to
that, and I wish the people didn't have to go through this; not the tension,
much less actual damage. South Korea is a modern country full of technology,
in those ways a peer to the US and other first world countries. Which makes it
even easier to put yourself in the south koreans' shoes. Gives you some
perspective.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Nobody is taking this seriously in the press. The DPRK says crap like this all
the time, its hard to tell if they are serious this time; it seems like they
probably aren't. Now that could change as we get more information, but for
now...its just the same-old-same-old. But us expats who live relatively near
the DPRK (in the PRC or ROK) will always pay attention to stuff like this.

~~~
goldfeld
Well, if it is as you say, in a way it worries me more. Maybe they have
declared all-out war in these terms before, I wouldn't know. In any case, if
it isn't this time, for how long more? If nobody takes them seriously, the
defenses will be lowered when they finally strike. I have little doubt NK is a
country which could put all to risk because of it's dictator's crazy whims.
It's a high risk the world is taking by dismissing it.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Everyone takes them seriously, just no one pays attention to what they say
anymore, which is basically not useful information. We can only go by what
they actually do.

------
bayesianhorse
The unfunny thing about this is that North Korea is virtually declaring war,
and South Korea and its allies have to ignore it because of very valid
threats.

In any open conflict, thousands of South Koreans in Seoul would die within
hours because of artillery on the border. Any war activity in North Korea,
together with weaker border enforcement would send hundreds of thousands of
Fugitives north and south.

In a lot of ways, Kim can afford the provocation more than every one else can
afford to take the bluff.

~~~
richardjordan
Right. This is one of the realities a lot of people unfamiliar with the
geography of Korea fail to understand. The North has just a ton of rockets
pointed at, and within range of, Seoul.

The North declares war and we are all forced to treat it as a joke because
taking it seriously and actually letting the hot war start would be
devastating.

This is China's mess. China really needs to step in here and do something.
It's fence-sat with the North for too long. It has understandable concerns
about North Korean refugees flooding across its borders, but its tolerance of
bad behavior and resistance to taking stronger action to influence it's unruly
charge is leading to it losing face at best, and at worse being seen as
contributing to a needless conflict with great loss of life should it occur.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
What can China do? Damned if they do and damned if they don't. China doesn't
want war, but they don't want change either. They don't want DPRK to implode,
they like the status quo as it is. They don't want refugees flooding in to
Liaoning, and they don't want the Americans to cross that parallel in any
case. But if war comes, the PLA might just strike first across the Yalu and
end it quickly. The DPRK is extremely aware of this, it makes them more weary
to start anything because they have no real friends.

Do not think for a second that China has some sort of dictator that can decide
what side of the fence they want to be on. You have a lot of diversity in
thought on what to do about the DPRK in the PRC. Many of them still don't
trust the US, and its more important to check us than to preserve trade
relationships.

~~~
kapnobatairza
China doesn't want war. Period. I don't think you realize how many affluent
Chinese tourists there are in Seoul. The moment China lets North Korea cross
the DMZ is the moment China invades North Korea themselves and installs some
new puppet regime. I don't think you understand what kind of uproar would
occur in China should any Chinese casualties occur because of North Korea's
antics.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
> I don't think you realize how many affluent Chinese tourists there are in
> Seoul.

The PRC government could give a shit about a few tourists. Its more about the
trade relations they have with the ROK (and PSY is really popular here).

> The moment China lets North Korea cross the DMZ is the moment China invades
> North Korea themselves and installs some new puppet regime.

Reread my post, this is exactly what I said. If you didn't know, the Yalu
river forms the border between Liaoning and DPRK.

> I don't think you understand what kind of uproar would occur in China should
> any Chinese casualties occur because of North Korea's antics.

Now that is a weird statement to make. First of all, they are more concerned
with trade relations, think of all the PRC citizens that will starve to death
if the export factories have to close down because the PRC is in it bad with
the US?

~~~
kapnobatairza
You are incorrect that "they could [sic] give a shit" (you probably meant
couldn't) about wealthy Chinese citizens. With affluence comes influence.
Maybe if we were talking about factory labourers they would not care, but when
a country's wealthiest citizens are in mortal peril you can bet your ass there
will a swift response.

You are correct that trade relations are key here, and I omitted this 800
pound gorilla. Thank you for the addition.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
When its war, they aren't going to sacrifice any intelligence/surprise
advantage to preserve a few tourists, that is true for either side (PRC, ROK,
DPRK, USA). It doesn't matter who these citizens are actually, and its
probably not the "country's wealthiest citizens," those are either safely at
home or in Hong Kong. We are talking just about a few rich business men at
most.

~~~
kapnobatairza
The situation is not so delicate that China would be able to brush off these
deaths for strategic reasons. I'm not even sure what you think a strategic
reason for China biding it's time would be. A vague reference to
intelligence/surprise attack doesn't really mean anything. A rapid response
from the north is an automatic loss for North Korea, there will be no waiting.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
There would be no wait actually. If DPRK warned the PRC that they were really
going to attack, the PRC would just invade DPRK immediately, they might warn
their tourists but this is only a secondary thought.

------
uvdiv
Here's the Korean version, in case the North Korean website goes down, or for
South Koreans whose country is blocking it: (apologies if I've damaged the
formatting)

[https://gist.github.com/anonymous/5276280/raw/4ce722bf2f5cc4...](https://gist.github.com/anonymous/5276280/raw/4ce722bf2f5cc4ad677752db62c2341bf2d5adac/gistfile1.txt)

The English version seems to be a North Korean translation. The KCNA site
published it in 5 languages. It's on page 2 of the main list of articles (page
NaN actually, but it's second in navigation).

No copyright infringement intended.

------
claudius
And yet the World Food Programme continues shipping food and other basic
supplies to North Korea to avoid further famines.

Surely such famines would not be particularly nice, but on the other hand,
recent events in the Middle East have demonstrated yet again that no
government can establish itself permanently without the support of its people;
hence rendering the North Korean people responsible for these nuclear threats
just as much as their government.

~~~
EliRivers
Have you been there? It seems a stretch to hold people responsible for the
actions of their government when they are born and die in the same village,
need permission to leave that village (and "wanting to go on a trip" doesn't
count), have no way to communicate with anyone outside the village, have
effectively no way to influence their government whatsoever, and the only
source of information they have is the official government version of
everything. You have as much influence over the DPRK government as they do.

~~~
claudius
Lack of freedom is maybe a reason to reject responsibility for one’s own
society, but neither a justification nor an excuse. Being allowed to reject
such responsibility on the basis of a lack of freedom would make it too easy
for the general public to blame a select few for crimes committed by the state
whilst enjoying their results just as well.

~~~
EliRivers
_Lack of freedom is maybe a reason to reject responsibility for one’s own
society, but neither a justification nor an excuse._

They're not rejecting responsibility. It's not as if they used to be fully in
control and one day decided that they'd have a go instead at being prisoners
of the state, utterly powerless, to see how that went. Nobody _allowed_ them
to reject responsibility.

 _Being allowed to reject such responsibility on the basis of a lack of
freedom would make it too easy for the general public to blame a select few
for crimes_

Are you serious? You want to hold people responsible for something they didn't
do and had absolutely no control over? If that's how it is, then YOU are also
to be held responsible.

------
donpark
Unfortunately, there is nothing further South Korea can do until North Korea
actually launches a full attack. Seoul can't be moved. South Korea can't
attack preemptively unless North appears to be preparing a nuclear launch.
Death in tens of thousands within first three days of war is expected and
accepted. Horrible, yes. But years of threats have tempered reactions and
people must go on with their lives.

Chances are NK will launch a restrained attack on one of the islands near
border, inviting a response which I'm told will be measured yet quite strong.
What they want is a stage to put on a display of thuggery because all they're
getting is a busy signal, ruining their Gangbook style.

Anyway, IMO and all that.

------
hp50g
I don't know why they even think they'd get away with this. All strategic
targets will be flattened in 30 minutes flat and the rest of the country will
just starve to death or die from the fallout. I assume they know this will
happen?

I genuinely feel sorry for the people on both sides Of this conflict as
they're all going to suffer if it kicks off.

If the international community gets involved as well, its going to drag out
even longer than Afghanistan or Iraq.

Its ugly whatever happens.

~~~
jeswin
They have a better chance of getting away with this than anyone else has had
in recent past.

\- The North Korean military is a serious conventional force.

\- Their army is considered to be highly motivated, given the years of
indoctrination and virtually no access to a real news channel. They will
probably fight to death.

\- They have an over-sized, capable special ops team.

\- Nukes. It may or may not work well, but the rest of the world can't take
this chance. We (rest of the world) are also just guessing how many they have.

\- Seoul is within range of artillery fire. Also will be the first thing to
get flattened. About 24 million people live in and around it.

\- I doubt if their strategic targets will be sitting ducks for aerial
bombing. Given that war and military is the only thing that country thinks
about.

So yeah, the truth is that the rest of the world is just very scared. South
Korean defense personnel have been repeated targeted in recent years; and
nothing could be done. :(

~~~
weavejester
It takes a lot of artillery to flattern a city, and the DPRK doesn't have that
many guns that can reach that far, or many artillery positions within 55km of
Seoul. While they also probably have nuclear weapons, it's unlikely they have
any means of delivering them yet.

The DPRK could potentially cause a lot of damage to civilians, but they cannot
win an offensive war. The question is whether they're crazy enough to try.

------
csense
Why doesn't Russia make a devil's deal with China to backstab NK, launch a
surprise attack, and carve up the territory between them? With some nebulous
hand-waving about their rhetoric leading to "global nuclear destabilization"
or somesuch (even if it's clear from the lack of troop movements that the
rhetoric is just rhetoric). They wouldn't have to deal with a popular
rebellion in Iraq/Afghanistan, just send the people a little bit of food and
start modernizing the countryside and they will be hailed as liberators.

Best to do it now, before they have to deal with another nuke club member in
their backyard that's a total wild card...

And if Seoul gets demolished, South Korea isn't _their_ ally, so that's
Somebody Else's Problem.

------
awaechter
There is something I don't get in this move. What's the purpose of Kim Yung-
un? Is he mad enough to believe he can underdog the rest of the world with his
dilapidated army? Does he believe that China will support him vs South Korea
allies even if he launches an attack? Is it just a means to make the media of
the rest of the world focus on him? Why? Does he want to be in position to
negotiate an opening and say to his people: look and they are afraid of us and
ready to talk? I rather believe in the latter option. Otherwise the only
solution is to send him a sniper with a syringe of antipsychotics to pacify
him.

------
espinchi
The word "nuclear" appears 9 times in the text. This is scary.

~~~
richardjordan
Right. Nuclear in the context of regime with a history of irrational behavior
that's been insulated from the consequences of its actions for so long it may
actually believe some of the nonsense its official communications machinery
puts out.

~~~
coldtea
> _Nuclear in the context of regime with a history of irrational behavior
> that's been insulated from the consequences of its actions for so long it
> may actually believe some of the nonsense its official communications
> machinery puts out._

Funny how all this could also translate directly to the US.

~~~
hippobravo
Only the powerless public. The guys at the top seem to behave very rationally
in their looting of the country.

------
richardjordan
So I think this situation merits some attention.

While I am sure it's mostly bluster, it's still a rather disturbing escalation
of rhetoric from an unpredictable and dangerous regime, unlikely to be the
most reliable of rational actors in times of high tension.

In case Reuters is down again - the BBC: <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-
asia-21979127>

------
TeMPOraL
Serious question, because everyone seems to be talking about how NK doesn't
have means to deliver a nuclear device over to SK. If they can hit Seoul with
conventional weapons, why couldn't they retrofit some of that tech to carry a
nuclear bomb?

~~~
j4_james
From an article on NPR ([http://www.npr.org/2013/01/28/170473476/north-koreas-
rhetori...](http://www.npr.org/2013/01/28/170473476/north-koreas-rhetoric-and-
capabilities)): "The toughest technology in the nuclear world is to shrink a
nuclear weapon down to something that is light enough to fit on a warhead and
that can detonate at the right place and so forth."

------
fakeer
Is the war declaration as in actually a war where North Korea has already
started firing guns, shells, rockets, charging with bayonets or whatever; or
this is just a declaration "declaration" of war against South Korea?

Because this:

>> _From this moment, the north-south relations will be put at the state of
war ...._

speaks of the latter it seems.

