
Uber’s IPO means higher fares for rides - turtlegrids
https://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-uber-fare-increase-20190531-story.html
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dia80
The last time I had this feeling was when shorting groupon. The emperor has no
clothes, I can't see how UBER ends up being materially different from a donut.

~~~
arcticbull
The only thing I can see being successful for them is JUMP. It's an awesome
service, there's no better way to get around San Francisco -- and Seattle! I
assume it's as effective in other cities too. On the other hand scaling and
acceptance seem pretty far off.

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twelve40
you're kidding, right? I gave up on using jump bikes for my own travel needs
long time ago, better off just walking and getting some exercise instead of
hunting down some random thing in some random direction. But I try to use the
bikes (the actual ride is pretty good, if you manage to get one) to show my
friends around SF when they visit. In my experience, it's almost impossible to
get two (or more, god forbid) bikes without spending up to an hour dragging
through the dirties parts of Tenderloin just to hunt down the thing. By the
time we manage to line up two bikes, everyone is fed up and sick of shitty
neighborhoods, too - easier to just uber and go where we actually need to go.

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icebraining
Your difficulty in finding available bikes might be because they're very
popular and constantly in use, no?

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malandrew
It's also government artificially restricting supply to certain numbers.
Asymptotic regulations are bad regulations. Variable regulations are better.
For example, instead of saying that there can be N bikes allowed, they should
instead determine metrics they want to achieve like utilization (rides per
day) or complaints per number of bikes and let operators put as many bikes on
the streets so long as the quality of life metrics they establish are
satisfied.

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randyrand
"Uber's success has been based on two unsustainable tactics: subsidizing fares
and exploiting drivers"

Considering Uber loses a billion dollars a quarter, I think the only people
that are being 'exploited' are investors. Investor money is going straight to
drivers and riders.

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ivalm
Investors presumably know the risks involved. On the other hand, many drivers
are inexperienced and do not know the full cost of driving for Uber (vehicle
depreciation and increased liability).

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Gibbon1
> Investors presumably know the risks involved.

Except for working stiffs who are going to end up with Uber stock stuffed in
their retirement accounts by unscrupulous portfolio managers.

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solveit
That is absolutely a known risk of investing in anything other than very low-
risk investments (and index funds I guess?).

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sna1l
I forgot where I read the article, but someone mentioned that the Softbank
strategy seems to be to geared towards having 2 major players in
ridesharing/delivery in each market. The idea was that when these companies go
public, they will stop subsidizing rides as much in order to show profit, and
will become viable businesses.

Because these companies have a new war chest of money, if any new upstarts
come into the game, they can have a short-term price war to drive these
players out. The US seems to be the first market where this strategy will play
out.

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Moxdi
is that sustainable though?

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sna1l
Honestly, I have no idea.

Lots of people have gotten very used to taking Uber/Lyft places. Once the
prices go up, will that behavior change? The original iPhone sold at 500 to
1500 for the XSMax 512 GB. Obviously it isn't an apples to apples comparison,
but I think the crux of the strategy depends on how inelastic ridesharing is.

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Mistri
I've always used Uber because I've assumed that it's cheaper than Lyft and
other rideshare services. I just realized I have no idea how much it is
compared to others. Does anyone have a formal comparison up online?

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WrtCdEvrydy
In the ultimate 'fuck you' to customers, you will get cheaper rides on Uber
under Android if you have the Lyft app installed...

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omeid2
Because on iOS they can't detect apps, as far as I know.

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masonic
If Uber has access to file storage, can't it look for file names specific to
Lyft?

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omeid2
Uber does not, iOS apps are sandboxed.

Further more, if you use `canOpenURL` trick to check for anything but trying
to fallback when you're actually trying to open the url/app, they will flag
you during the review.

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temp129038
I mean higher fares happened a long time ago on both Uber and Lyft. I used to
take regular UberX all around SF for <$10. Now I never see a regular Uber for
less than $15 and regularly more than $20.

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icebraining
I won't, since I can already use Bolt, Kapten or Cabify. The idea that Uber
will somehow manage to keep people from building an app and competing is
silly. There's almost no barrier of entry.

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zaarn
There is a barrier to entry: building a network of drivers.

If there is no drives, nobody will buy a ride over your app, drivers will then
not install it because nobody is buying rides.

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arcticbull
Every driver drives for every service in each city. There's no cost to them
doing so. The only thing actually motivating them to stick to one service or
another is Uber and Lyft have quota-based payouts promotions. Make your quota,
get a bonus. Once they do, though, they're back at timesharing.

~~~
zaarn
There is the cost of signing up to each service and entering bank details for
payout. Additionally drivers aren't rational market players with perfect
information. The quota alone could be enough emotional incentive for a driver
to stick to only 2-3 apps.

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arcticbull
True, though that hasn't been my experience in SF. I usually see most cars
with both Lyft and Uber stickers, and I'm relaying what each driver I've
spoken with has told me. Admittedly it's a small sample size.

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mattigames
Uber's competition is quickly growing and people is realizing is just a matter
of downloading an app and you get cheaper alternative, in Latin America a
service called beat is giving cheaper car rides, a service called pickup is
usin motorbikes instead of cars and is cheaper for both driver and users, all
in all Uber doesn't have a leg to stand on and is becoming clear all it is is
piramid scheme in a gigantic scale.

~~~
latchkey
Less expensive does not mean those other competitors are making money. For
example, Grab is burning through billions of investors cash, just like Uber
[1].

Uber has motorbikes in other countries. It had a huge presence in Vietnam,
until Grab took over their un-profitable business. It is just that it isn't
popular in the US to take a ride from someone on a motorbike.

[1] [https://techcrunch.com/2019/03/05/grab-vision-
fund/](https://techcrunch.com/2019/03/05/grab-vision-fund/)

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ubercow13
Grab is already more expensive than conventional taxis in some places I've
been recently.

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latchkey
...or is it that taxis have lowered their pricing to compete?

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ubercow13
Don't think so, for example in Bangkok the taxi rate is regulated and I
believe it hasn't changed for ages.

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neonate
[http://archive.is/WfBip](http://archive.is/WfBip)

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bayes_days
Mmmm... unlikely. Here is where the growth helps. More drivers => more
passengers => more productive use of car miles. The more time where a
passenger is in the car the better, and when you factor in shared rides it
gets better. Even if you factor in competition by "branding" as they say, the
increase in growth is a benefit even if promotions are scaled back. If there
is any place you will see increases in prices, it will probably be medium
sized cities where Uber/Lyft have not achieved a great driver count and don't
care to invest as much anymore.

Otherwise I would be surprised to see any major metropolitan areas ever be
more expensive in the future than they are now.

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Scoundreller
That and any upstart will have a tough time getting enough Pool-type fares to
keep everyone happy.

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sschueller
In the end you will have a service costing the same as a regular Taxi but
without all the benefits of them being licensed. Taxi licensing may be screwed
up and unfair in the US but in many parts of the world it works well.

~~~
kuzehanka
I'm fine with Uber costing the same as a regular taxi. Riding in a taxi is a
garbage experience compared to uber. Drivers making excuses not to take you
after learning your destination, rude drivers, drivers who have no clue how to
navigate, drivers who pretend the card machine is broken, or try to take you
on winding routes to increase the fare.

Despite all the supposed downsides of ridesharing, it continues to be
immensely more popular than the traditional taxi service even as the price gap
closes. Because the traditional taxi service is a garbage rent seeking
incumbent that needs to die for the good of all.

I catch cabs or ridesharing on a daily basis for work, and cabs are just
fucking awful compared to ridesharing.

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zaarn
In my country, a taxi driver is legally required to drive you to your
destination unless it exceeds reasonable distances (around 50km, which far
above what anyone would use a taxi for here). Drivers with broken cashier
machines or taxameters aren't allowed to take passengers, especially a broken
taxameter might mean that passenger will pay a very much reduced fare. Most of
them have GPS, and if they don't they can be liable for excess distance
travelled.

Most taxi services here have excellent apps themselves and are cheaper than
what Uber offered while they were allowed to operate (they are not just a
glorified taxi service since non-taxi drivers aren't allowed on their
service).

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kuzehanka
In my country, the driver is also legally required to drive you to your
destination. It doesn't stop them from making random excuses like 'oh sorry my
gps is broken'. That is an actual excuse I got from not one but two cab
drivers in a row when travelling between offices in the city.

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masonic
But such violations result in sanctions against the medallion holder via a
transparent process.

For example (last time I was there, and I doubt that it has changed much), if
you get in a cab at JFK, he _had_ to take you anywhere in Manhattan / Queens /
Brooklyn / Bronx, regardless of time of day, likelihood of a return fare,
disabilities, etc. Otherwise, the medallion faced sanctions.

A rideshare can simply decline.

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satellitec4t
Hopefully the increase goes to the drivers...

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Lazare
...the article is very, _very_ clear that it absolutely will not.

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minimaxir
...which will then push Uber customers to Lyft/Cabs. Uber doesn’t have
monopoly leverage.

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quickthrower2
As well as walk, bus, train, using own car and not drinking, etc.

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omeid2
Defs, I used to use Uber until it become cheaper to drive and pay for carpark,
and mind you, parking in Australia is extortionist.

