
Study: White Police Officers Not More Likely to Shoot Minority Suspects (2019) - onetimemanytime
https://www.npr.org/2019/07/26/745731839/new-study-says-white-police-officers-are-not-more-likely-to-shoot-minority-suspe
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totalZero
The question should not be whether white cops shoot more minorities. It should
be whether minorities are killed disproportionately by police in situations
where lethal force is not justified, after controlling for race of suspects
generally in police encounters.

Eric Garner wasn't shot, and George Floyd wasn't shot either. So clearly, a
study of shootings alone cannot capture the full picture.

It would also be interesting to consider the statistics of disciplinary action
taken against black officers who kill innocent people, versus white officers
who kill innocent people.

~~~
Sacho
I disagree that your question is the only important one to answer on this
topic. Among other things, the study authors are seemingly trying to answer
the question if more racial diversity among police would reduce the amount of
shootings:

> Because racial disparities in FOIS do not vary based on officer race, hiring
> more diverse officers may not reduce racial disparities in FOIS. This is not
> to say that increasing officer diversity is without merit, as increasing
> officer diversity may broaden understanding of diverse communities and
> increase trust in law enforcement. However, these data suggest that
> increasing racial diversity would not meaningfully reduce racial disparity
> in fatal shootings

There was an NYT article quite a few years ago examining the topic of racial
disparity in police
departments([https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/09/03/us/the-
race-g...](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/09/03/us/the-race-gap-in-
americas-police-departments.html)) which contained a short blurb with a
similar conclusion:

> “Even if police officers of whatever race _enforce the law in relatively the
> same way_ , there is a huge image problem with a department that is so out
> of sync with the racial composition of the local population,”

Here's another article from the washington post on
it([https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/storyline/wp/2014/08/22/...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/storyline/wp/2014/08/22/do-
diverse-police-forces-treat-their-communities-more-fairly-than-all-white-ones-
like-fergusons/)):

> Some social scientists have taken a look at the racial disparities in the
> behavior of officers, but the topic is still being studied. And there is
> hardly any research at all on whether racial disparities exist between
> officers when they use force. ... > From the studies that have been done,
> however, there’s no conclusive evidence to show that white and black police
> officers treat suspects differently — if anything, some of the studies show
> that black officers can be can be harder on black criminal suspects.

Is this an obvious conclusion? I don't think so. It only took a quick google
search to find a site campaigning for police
reform([https://www.joincampaignzero.org/representation](https://www.joincampaignzero.org/representation))
which contains a study with a different conclusion:

> Moreover, research shows police departments with more black officers are
> less likely to kill black people.

To me it seems like the topic is still under active research, even if there
are already existing tentative conclusions - especially since the conclusions
are counter-intuitive, it makes sense that the authors would want to provide
more data to the subject.

~~~
totalZero
If you can't hold police officers responsible for bad actions, it doesn't
matter what their predispositions are. Plus, having a few black cops on 8th
Street does no good if a white cop on 9th Street is happy to bash a suspect's
head against the sidewalk after getting the handcuffs on. More generally,
there may be some groups of potential victims of brutality (eg the mentally
ill, or children) that you could never reasonably represent on a police force,
but you must still ensure that those people can have safe interactions with
police.

Extrajudicial violence by police (beyond what is appropriate to carry out the
job) is more a function of the way the police force operates and maintains
discipline, than a function of the predisposition of any individual officer.

I contend that you could structure a police force with the appropriate
training and disciplinary practices, such that it would operate fairly even if
all of its officers were white supremacists.

Conversely, you could put a group of good people into a police force with bad
institutional structure with poor oversight and no checks on bad behavior, and
they would end up doing bad things.

Instead of asking ourselves about individual predispositions, which are
neither observable nor predictable, we should talk about how to build
institutional culture and practices that safeguard against bad behavior.

~~~
mike503
Extremely well said, and basically what I have tried to relay in my attempts
to describe proper accountability and enforcement.

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beaker52
I really lament how difficult this conversation has become. I really lament it
because I'm in fear of saying anything more than that, for fear of friendly-
fire-by-pitchfork. It's a really, really awkward situation.

I can't see a world, where out of all the violence, suddenly everyone is
happy. All I can see is more conflict. What sucks the most is that I can
barely ask for restraint without encountering someone desperate to label me as
being on the wrong team.

~~~
princekolt
Now imagine how it feels for black folks. Imagine then that this is how it's
been for them for 400 years. Then you start to get a little bit of the anger
and desperation they feel right now.

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api
We have a broad problem with excessive police violence and brutality in the
USA. Minorities are disproportionately targeted but anyone can be a victim.
There are numerous cases of people of all ethnicities being killed even if
they're not under suspicion of any crime, such as via a paramilitary drug raid
on the wrong house. These sorts of events are so common you can usually search
and find one or two in the past month at any given time.

We have (recent extraordinary events aside) far lower crime rates today than
we did back in the 70s and 80s, but we seem to have just as much if not more
police violence and police militarization. It's become a kind of macho cargo
cult or maybe a bit of security theater that politicians can trumpet. Whatever
it is, it needs to be challenged. Police do need the ability to use force when
needed, but that should be rare. They are public safety servants not soldiers
in a war.

I don't see the Floyd killing as just a race issue, though it undoubtedly is
that since blacks are disproportionately targeted. After watching that video I
personally (as a white male) feel at least a bit more nervous about police.
What happens if you catch a cop on a bad day, or one with psychological
problems, or one who has some reason to dislike you? Am I going to get beat up
or worse? Who would I call for help, the police?

This is not something that should concern me at all in a civilized country. Is
this a civilized country?

~~~
chrischen
If black people are more likely to be criminalized then having a police
brutality problem is certainly a bigger problem for black people...

There are many potential factors for why black people have higher
criminalization rates:

1) systemic racially targeted policies (even if not explicitly targeting). One
example may be going after “black people drugs” more than “white people
drugs”. Real world example was Nixon’s Drug war on black people and leftists.

2) Historic prejudice that reduces opportunities. If a certain group has
reduced opportunities, they’re sort of forced to find other means. Plus if you
think the system is rigged why would you work with the system?

3) compounding effects. If such effects like the ones above compound over
generations, at some point some people start thinking it’s endemic to the
race. This is a more direct racism, but honestly you’d have to willingly
ignore the above two to truly believe this. Examples are right wingers citing
black people being more likely to be incarcerated as a _reason_ for why they
are more likely to be criminals. A logical fallacy in itself.

3b) compounding effects also lead to in general more scrutiny on black people
for crimes.

3c) if your parents had a tough time you’re more likely to have a tough time.
If your parents were criminals or drug users, guess what’s gonna be normal for
you. On the opposite end of the same stick: things like legacy college admits
disadvantage those who never had anything close to such benefits. Seems like
it’s not harming anyone but guess who that fancy wall street job is more
likely to hire: name brand college grad or black guy from community college
(or no college at all because parents couldn’t afford it). SAT tests? Sorry
was making sure I wasn’t stabbed at my inner city school. Some these things
apply just in general to poor people, but remember black people don’t exactly
come from wealthy legacy of early Americans, and are systematically denied
opportunities over generations.

There’s probably more causes and factors I’m missing because America is just
so full of historically awful things done to black people that I, as a
(naturalized) non-black immigrant, am quite confounded how it’s still
generally acceptable that legacy power structures from people who benefited
off these awful things still exist.

So trying to pin criminalization rate abnormalities on black people as an
endemic racial thing would require willful ignorance that somehow over 400
years of institutionalized racism and prejudice, both from hateful people and
prejudicial policies, would somehow have no effect on current day black
people. One would have to be pretty willfully blind to not get _why_ black
people are more likely to be criminalized _today_.

I know you didn’t say it, but implying that it’s everyone’s problem subtly
suggests that black criminalization rate isn't the core of the issue, and
takes away from the inordinate targeted prejudice they are facing from such
police brutality policies. That being said, have you ever heard of a white guy
saying they felt less safe around cops?

EDIT: it seems you removed the “everyone’s problem bit”

> After watching that video I personally (as a white male) feel at least a bit
> more nervous about police.

I’m not black but I can tell you your nervousness probably means nothing real.
It’s also kind of insulting to insinuate that your concern for police would be
on any level equal to the concern a black person may have. They have honestly
much more of a real reason to fear police. Plus your argument about getting
beaten up by a crazy police officer makes no sense. You could just as likely
get beat up by _any_ crazy person. If your worry is getting shot by a crazy
police officer same thing, you’re probably more likely as a white guy to be
shot by a non police with a gun given how easy it is for anyone to obtain one.

~~~
api
A shorter version of my point: a brutal paramilitary police force with a
license to kill is not something anyone should tolerate, and it's everyone's
problem. Minorities are disproportionately victimized by it, but until people
realize it's everyone's problem nothing is going to be done.

~~~
chrischen
Except the police don’t actually have a license to kill. They are just
particularly dangerous to black people. Even if your claims that US police are
a trigger happy paramilitary force, they definitely do not affect non-black
races as much. I mean _yes_ any given white criminal may be subject to similar
risks, but there’s profiling done on anonymous black people and just in
general the rate of non-black criminality is lower so such problems will
affect the average non-black person much less. And if you don’t fit into the
profile of a criminal by a cop you’re pretty low in terms of chance of getting
harassed.

Across suburbia stores closed early and police patrols were increased amid
possible rioting. Imagine an SUV full of black men drives up to a suburban
strip mall during last night in such circumstances and imagine one full of
white teenage girls. If just due to the fact that a police goes by their gut
On the job, they’re more likely to profile the SUV full of black people as
potentially suspicious. Best case they just follow them and give them undue
attention; worst case they harass them or more.

I get where you are coming from, but I also think the cause is worthy even if
doesn’t affect one’s own race at any given time. I think it _could_ happen to
any race which is why it’s important to stop unequal treatment. I mean I’m
sure other groups get profiled too such as Muslims (as terrorists) and that
probably didn’t really start until 2001.

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dataworx
Quoting Jonathan Mummolo @jonmummolo

The article linked in this message claiming white officers are no more likely
than nonwhite officers to shoot racial minorities is based on a study that,
mathematically, cannot support its central claim. The authors have admitted
this.

[https://twitter.com/jonmummolo/status/1266184793244479500?s=...](https://twitter.com/jonmummolo/status/1266184793244479500?s=20)

------
b1tshift
Would be interesting to read the study itself and not an interview about it :/

~~~
an_ko
PDF of the paper:
[https://5315b3c7-4fd2-421c-be7a-cbaa4348a7c2.filesusr.com/ug...](https://5315b3c7-4fd2-421c-be7a-cbaa4348a7c2.filesusr.com/ugd/b44013_a5fc6189326849fab031bc3fedae7c3d.pdf)

A more casual explanation, by the primary author:
[https://www.cesariolab.com/race-bias-in-
shooting](https://www.cesariolab.com/race-bias-in-shooting)

------
threatofrain
Complicating the picture is that city policing has been trending toward safer
interaction, while rural and more notably suburban areas have been trending
towards more dangerous policing.

[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/police-are-killing-
fewe...](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/police-are-killing-fewer-people-
in-big-cities-but-more-in-suburban-and-rural-america/)

------
iovrthoughtthis
This is a very white take on the problem. Seeking individual racist actions so
as to find individuals to blame.

This side steps the issues of systemic racism with few individual acts of
racism but rather large systems which are inherently racist.

It matters not whether each individual cop shoots more minorities but whether
more minorities are shot by cops.

~~~
chrischen
Yes, and I’d like to add a system that has racism baked in is much like a deep
learning model with racism baked in. For the model you’d obviously want to
compensate those prejudicial factors because they imply an incorrect bias with
the model. It’s like if you trained your hot dog detector with only pictures
of hot dogs with buns. It’s not going to recognize hot dogs for what they
truly are so you’d have to correct the input bias to fix it.

------
Jonnax
I've extracted the end quote here.

It seems the study puts forward the idea that police in general are more
likely to shoot minorities.

"FRIDELL: The defenders of police, of course, will cherry-pick the studies
that show no bias. And the other side will cherry-pick the ones that do. But
we don't have any definitive studies on this.

KASTE: She thinks people should be more open to the idea that bias and
demographics can both play a role. And that's something that the authors of
the paper and their critics both seem to agree on.

The real question here is not whether race is a factor in police shootings,
but when? Is it beforehand in all the things that might lead up to a shooting,
such as drug laws or racial profiling? Or does it come down to the skin color
of the individual cop holding the gun?"

~~~
loopz
Racism should demand citation and proofs.

 _Inequality_ is a given, and require leadership.

------
Thorrez
Confusing title. It should say "than non-white police officers are" at the
end. This distinguishes it from "than non-minority subjects".

------
ashleyn
The best way I heard this articulated:

* Black Americans have increased interactions with the police, variously due to profiling and/or material conditions * The police in the US are exceedingly quick to use deadly force compared to other nations

~~~
sgt
Material conditions is key. If you grow up in a neighborhood with high crime
rates, the likelihood of you being exposed to crime and taking part of it
simply rises. It's very unfortunate, and acts as a vicious circle keeping many
minority communities pushed down. It's ironic that the protests and riots
going on are just doing more harm to minorities than ever before, by damaging
downtown businesses.

------
onetimemanytime
Not baiting, just pointing out that prob there's more than race when it comes
to discrimination. Social class matters too.

~~~
princekolt
While ignoring the entire argumentation of the article. Not inflammatory at
all!

~~~
totalZero
It's fair to consider confounding variables when discussing a statistical
analysis.

------
sadmann1
What if they shoot everyone? Would that be a satisfying conclusion? I've been
looking at how the riot police is handling civilians and it's plain to see
most are veterans that still think they're in Iraq. From the 'light them up'
when people are watching from their house to how they murdered that guy in the
hotel two years ago because he couldn't crawl towards them with his hands
behind his back. Something is very wrong with American policemen

~~~
svrtknst
> What if they shoot everyone? Would that be a satisfying conclusion?

Obviously not, and it's weird that you'd go there of all places.

------
chrischen
The final sentence summarizes the flaw of any conclusions over racism that one
may come to from this study:

> The real question here is not whether race is a factor in police shootings,
> but when? Is it beforehand in all the things that might lead up to a
> shooting, such as drug laws or racial profiling? Or does it come down to the
> skin color of the individual cop holding the gun?

But it also misses another question, which is whether or not the chances
increase starting from much earlier in time. Is it a buildup of all things
leading up to when a shooting may occur? Is it the environment of the child’s
upbringing? All the negative externalities in one’s life can add up to bring
someone to a point of criminality. But the real question is could that have
been avoided at _any_ time leading up to it happening? Because certain races
in America have a _lot of_ prejudice that lead to a lot of externalities on
any given individual that definitely shape their life course in a way that
isn’t natural.

