

6 Y Combinator Startups I Would Have Invested In Back Then - markbao
http://onstartups.com/home/tabid/3339/bid/6119/6-Y-Combinator-Startups-I-Would-Have-Invested-In-Back-Then.aspx

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fallentimes
Kind of a 20/20 hindsight thing too. I wish people would write these type of
posts right after the startup launches.

It's very easy to bash startups and think you're an expert because you picked
who would fail (the vast majority of them do). It's much harder to pick
winners.

~~~
nostrademons
I've written them right after the startup launches. My track record:

1.) Reddit. The day after it launched: "Well, this is interesting, but I can't
ever see myself using it." 3 months later, after I started using it: "Well, I
use it, but I can't ever see it getting popular." Early 2006, in response to
PG's comment about "This sucker's profitable": "But are they profitable enough
to cover the opportunity cost's of the founder's salaries?" Mid 2006: "Okay,
they're profitable through bizdev deals, but I can't imagine them ever getting
bought." I believe they were acquired on Halloween 2006.

2.) Infogami: I thought they were the most likely of the SFP05 startups to be
successful, right until they launched.

3.) Wufoo, when it came out: "I don't get what the point is." About 9 months
later: "Incidentally, I'd put Wufoo, VirtualMin, and DropBox at the bottom of
the deadpool, i.e. most likely to succeed."

4.) Xobni: "Personally, I'd put Xobni at the top of the YC deadpool."
<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=51982>

5.) VirtualMin: Already mentioned that this is one I'd invest in if I actually
had money. I'd used Webmin for previous websites; there's a lot of money in
easy-to-use server admin tools for folks who don't really know what they're
doing.

6.) RescueTime: Loved it from the moment I heard about it. Immediately
recommended it to friends; if I had money, I'd invest.

7.) Thinkature: I thought this was really cool when it came out, and that it'd
be one of the survivors of its batch.

8.) Flagr: Thought this was succeeding for sure when one of my RL friends
linked me to a Flagr map.

9.) Justin.TV. "This is pointless, I can't believe YC gave these guys $50K,
I'll probably never visit it again."

Somebody remind me never to become a VC.

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dshah
That's not bad.

And for the record, most VCs should never have become VCs.

~~~
ericwan
neither of you guys mentioned loopt, but it is supposed to be one of the
startups that PG has the most expectation. do you guys think it won't succeed,
or what is it?

personally, I don't get it either.

~~~
nostrademons
I'm on record as saying that it won't - I could very well be wrong (just look
at my track record ;-), but that's my prediction.

~~~
ericwan
we'll see. =) i'd say it won't too, or it morphs into something totally
different and succeed.

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gm
Shoulda/woulda/coulda... Is that worth anything?

~~~
dshah
Well, I'm biased (being the author of the article), but it was worth something
to me for two reasons:

1\. Writing it helped me think about the topic.

2\. I got a chance to compliment some folks that I think deserved it without
seeming overly silly.

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Anon84
Dupe. <http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=264139>

Well... that's one more bug in the duplication detection routine. Apparently
adding a "/" to a url causes it to count as a different one.

~~~
dshah
Well, technically, adding a "/" at the end of something _is_ a different URL.

~~~
xlnt
The point is that we don't want duplicate content, even if it's at slightly
different URLs.

~~~
boucher
I think the counter-point was that it may actually be different content. How
often that is the case, I don't know, but assuming it will never happen
doesn't necessarily seem like a great idea.

~~~
xlnt
Maybe the system should actually check what's at each page.

And you should read more carefully. I did not suggest the thing you say is a
bad idea.

------
Tichy
Boring

