
Amazon Unveils Delivery By Drone - dfield
http://www.zdnet.com/amazon-unveils-delivery-by-drone-prime-air-no-seriously-7000023795/
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programminggeek
I think it's fair to say that between self driving cars and self guided
quadracopters, it is entirely possible to have a fully or nearly autonomous
end-to-end logistics system in the next 10-15 years. A lot of the problems
with longer distance quadracopters could be overcome with a self driving
delivery van, similar to an aircraft carrier with fighter jets.

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maxerickson
"How does the package get from the self driving car to your porch?"

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programminggeek
Like the aircraft carrier and aircraft, you could have a delivery vehicle that
acted as a quadracopter platform to take the item from van to house over
shorter distances.

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waterlesscloud
I'm imagining the code to plan the route of the autonomous truck as it
accounts for travel time/range in and out for each delivery.

The truck never stops, optimizing its route for all the drones it has in the
air.

Writing that code would be a pretty cool job.

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maxerickson
I imagine much of the time the best optimization would end up being a single
drone.

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electromagnetic
Only in major urban areas where you see a UPS/Fedex truck literally go a block
before stopping again would you likely see multiple drones.

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waterlesscloud
But the bigger picture here is to expand what you order from Amazon. The
eventual goal would be more along the lines of small singleton items you'd run
to a convenience/drug/grocery store for.

Even after you account for a minimum price to make it worthwhile, that's many,
many more deliveries than UPS/FedEx does.

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dsrguru
This is terrifying. If they successfully lobby to legalize commercial drones
in low-flying airspace, the peaceful sky will be polluted with flying robots
(we've destroyed the terrestrial environment already, seriously don't need to
destroy the sky too), businesses would have access to terrifying surveillance,
criminals/terrorists could remotely break into drones or fly their own
disguised to look like commercial ones (and load them with cameras or
weapons), etc. All so Amazon could be slightly faster than Instacart?

FYI I'm not a luddite and I recognize the increased convenience that faster
shipping would provide and the potential other gains that would come of
commercial drones. But the tradeoff just doesn't seem worth it here at all.

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chaz
Flying drones would offset the number of cars and trucks that are roaming
around our streets, highways, and bridge by putting them into the sky. Would
it be better or worse to replace all of those cars that come in/out of a Wal-
mart, Target, and Safeway with drones? I have no idea, but I'm excited to find
out.

Regarding your other concerns, there was an interesting episode of
Freakonomics with Clay Shirky about the Internet, and how it gets regulated
(or doesn't) by the fears of what it could do. A relevant exchange with the
host starts here [1] at 20:08. The audio transcript is also available and
Ctrl-F to "Let me ask you this kind of more." Shirky says:

"... there’s a large class of problems that you don’t solve until you have
them. Right? You hear all of the ethicists saying oh the technology is
outrunning ethics, to which the pragmatist answer is that’s exactly what we
want. If you and I were to sit down right now and say well let’s draw up
regulations for time travel and telekinesis we would, it’s a ridiculous
question."

[1] [http://freakonomics.com/2013/11/14/who-runs-the-internet-
a-n...](http://freakonomics.com/2013/11/14/who-runs-the-internet-a-new-
freakonomics-radio-podcast/)

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jmadsen
I think this is fascinating, both for what the world will look like a few
years down the road, as well as for all the questions that need to be
answered.

A few random thoughts:

1) "Safety questions" \- drones won't fly drunk, or while texting, or putting
on makeup, or...you get the point. We regularly engage in what is arguably the
most dangerous activity on the planet without batting an eye or thinking we
should clamp down on the number of barely-trained 16-yo's doing it, so I'm not
going to be moved by the safety concerns on this one. If for no other reason
than drones are expensive, and lawsuits more so, so you can expect a pretty
good safety record

2) "Noise/environment concerns" \- I was working in the SF Bay Area when 9/11
happened; it was weird to suddenly not have planes constantly taking off from
3 different airports. For a few days.

It will be strange to have this things buzzing around the sky - for a few
months. Then you'll stop looking up. I can't imaging them being worse than a
leaf blower or a big diesel delivery truck.

3) "Airspace/regulations" \- this part is fascinating to me. How do you avoid
children's kites? Rival delivery drones? BB-guns? (I know that's what I'd be
doing - a lucky shot to a rotor, and I'm the Hero Slayer of the 6th Grade). It
is - literally (now that "literally" means anything you want it to, I can use
it without fear) - a new frontier, with the same types of questions we're
asking about Moon and Asteroid rights. I'm psyched we have these types of
technical questions to deal with now.

4) "Surveillance/terrorists/et al" \- whatever your concern - too late.

Start this post thinking to just think about & list my response to each major
point raised elsewhere; looks like I've come out pretty keen on this whole
thing. Hello, future! Isaac Asimov, you almost made it.

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chrischen
Drone's may not have uniquely human problems, but they will have uniquely
drone problems... plus, whatever advantages gained will simply mean drones
will be pushed to their limit, until new uniquely drone problems are exposed.
The only difference is that at this point the uniquely drone problems are new
and not as well understood.

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jmadsen
No, that wasn't my point - simply stating that any technology comes with its
own issues, so dismissing a tech because it has issues is silly. We accept the
perils of driving cars, we'll reach a point of acceptance with drones

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ratsbane
Roof-mounted miniature helipad mailboxes, painted with QR codes. Really, why
don't houses already have package receptacles for UPS and FedEx?

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prawn
I recently found myself looking at contemporary styled letter boxes, including
some at $900ish that were quickly ruled out. It felt utterly stupid to be
spending even $100 on something used to receive letters, all of which might be
bills, advertising or invitations too formal to arrive by email.

It's interesting that we aren't being pitched package boxes with one way
delivery and security keypads, etc.

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lostsock
A few months behind Australia, wonder who will be the first to actually start
using it in production.

[http://www.news.com.au/business/companies/aussie-company-
zoo...](http://www.news.com.au/business/companies/aussie-company-zookal-to-
launch-drone-delivery-service/story-fnda1bsz-1226740011043)

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founder4fun
For me and many it seems file this under hard to believe!

It begs me to wonder....

1\. Won't theft of packages run rampant or Amazon only will deploy drones to
customers currently home?

2\. Wouldn't the drones be subject to be shot or brought down?

3\. Will this only fly in good weather?

4\. The sky is going to be littered with these things flying around?

5\. Will there be a service where you can rent a drone to spy on your mate?
Divorce lawyers could sell it.

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alister
If you recast these questions according to how deliveries work right now, I
think you see that we already have all those problems and we manage to live
with them:

1\. Won't theft run rampant if UPS drops off your package at your door when
you're not home?

2\. Don't drivers of cars and trucks risk getting shot or stopped?

3\. Will cars and trucks travel only in good weather?

4\. The highways are going to be littered with cars and trucks driving around?
Won't this lead to "traffic jams"?

5\. Will there be a service where you can rent a car (or taxi) to spy on your
mate?

I'm not trying to be glib, but rephrasing the questions like this puts the
issues in a new light. You can see the potential problems and solutions.

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baddox
Also, it should be mentioned that the answer to those questions is that
thousands of packages get stolen and thousands of people get killed every year
in the current system, yet we still apparently find it acceptable. I find it
hard to imagine this drone delivery paradigm being worse.

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danenania
If these get mass adoption, won't it make for highly congested skies in urban
areas?

Another question is would they be a threat to birds?

The technology side is cool, but I don't relish the thought of looking out the
window and seeing the air packed with delivery drones going to and fro.

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baddox
I think that's a misplaced concern. I'd rather have them in the skies than on
the streets, competing with personal automobiles, pedestrians, bicyclists,
etc.

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bjg
Altering natura ecosystem further is more favorable than inconveniencing
people while they go about their days?

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baddox
I was thinking more about the killing of people than the inconveniencing of
them.

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yeukhon
Fun thought: Hey! We now can get an owl to deliver to us our letters! (Harry
Potter!)

Serious thought: Nice. Though what safety precaution will be in place? How
many can be fly at the same time? How exactly do we pick up this drone? What
stops non-owner from picking up the delivery? What stops from someone
detouring the drone to a different location? How does it know where to drop?
How to drop? Some environment reader must be implemented in this robot.

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CamperBob2
Yay! Buy $8 DVD using stolen credit card, get free drone.

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greyshi
*get free jail time

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pretense
Considering the amount of money I pay in taxes, I wouldn't consider it free.
More like return on investment.

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sebcat
1) drone failure causing damage to people or property

2) limited operational capabilities in regards to weather conditions. As
someone who has flown ram air canopies in urban environments, I can tell you
that 10mph winds of a building creates some interesting vortices. What's the
air speed of a quad/octocopter-style drone?

3) shared airspace issues. These drones will probably fly pretty low
(<1000ft?) and they will not be alone. There will be many drones in the air,
from various manufacturers and companies. Imagine the ATC complexity in an
environment like that. There's no system for that today.

Solving problems like that would probably be very interesting.

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Skinney
> What's the air speed of a quad/octocopter-style drone?

Well, is it an american or european swall, er, drone?

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codex
Will these be gas powered? I hope not, but I don't see any way to get the
required energy density. Flying lawnmowers here we come.

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rottyguy
electric. youtube:
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98BIu9dpwHU](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98BIu9dpwHU)

~~~
codex
That sounds quite loud. Are you sure it's not gas?

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chaz
In the 60 Minutes interview said it's electric.

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dylandrop
My main concern is environmental impact. I'd be interested in an analysis of
the effects of producing these drones + environmental cost of powering them +
environmental cost of producing those yellow boxes vs. cost of delivery truck.

Edit: Sincerely curious as to why this got voted down. Is environmental impact
not a possible issue with this system?

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andrewflnr
This should be pretty awesome for returns, too. Ideally, I could actually
trade my old item for the new with a drone.

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dharma1
we've been flying with drones with heavy payloads for a while now -
[http://londonhelicam.co.uk](http://londonhelicam.co.uk)

The main thing is energy density - the batteries only allow for about 10-15
mins flight with a reasonable payload. Considering Amazon will have to do a
roundtrip, this will not give them a very long range.

The second thing is safety - we never fly above people. I don't think the
authorities will allow Amazon to fly over populated areas until the tech is
100% safe, which it isn't yet.

I think we're looking around the same time frame as with self driving electric
cars becoming commonplace.. Many of the problems with battery life and safety
are shared. Maybe 7 years?

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TimCinel
Just last week I was having what I thought was a fanciful conversation with a
friend about exactly this. I'm amazed to see this materialise and very
interested to see how the regulation process is handled.

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Houshalter
Crazy ridiculous idea: have the copters attached to a cable or pole that it
drags along the ground, or whatever is necessary so it isn't considered a
flying vehicle. Or just fly it really close to the ground.

Actually even just a UGV would be pretty useful.

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nyrina
I'll look forward to pulling that cable down and taking the contents of the
packages

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Houshalter
And it will probably record it and call the police on you. That drones
specifically will be targeted for crime is ridiculous. Do you steal packages
left out in front of people's houses or mail? What about ATMs and vending
machines that are full of cash and just left unattended?

Crime will happen, sure, but it won't be that common and there are easy things
that could be done to deter it.

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kiddz
I hate to think that my neighbor buying a hdmi cable means that my backyard
will get a fly over by a camera enabled amazon drone. This does seem magical
though.

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dghughes
I'd rather see pneumatic tubes deliver packages.

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xelipe
This means that the Mexican drug cartels might already be using drones to
traffic illicit drugs across the border...

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Houshalter
I believe I heard they were, though I can't confirm that. It's only legitimate
businesses that are affected by the drone ban, sadly.

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merryandrew
If this ever actually happens, delivery theft will be rampant.

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Tiktaalik
My first thought is that knocking drones out of the sky (not necessarily to
steal their contents) could become the new fun activity for bored juvenile
delinquents.

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e1l1
Not just juvenile delinquents. I am well into my 40s, and I am not sure I am
going to be able to resist take a shot at them.

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bepitulaz
Will it deliver across the world? xD

