
The state of the restaurant industry - enraged_camel
https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry
======
cs702
Wow, 50-70% drop in online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-in
diners, compared to last year, in every country measured by OpenTable.

The restaurant sector generates $3 trillion in annual sales worldwide, and
provides employment to a vast number of individuals.[a]

Absent government intervention, the cascading economic impact from just this
one sector will be enormous.

[a] [https://medium.com/@CravyHQ/the-restaurant-industry-a-
global...](https://medium.com/@CravyHQ/the-restaurant-industry-a-global-
perspective-26cea1b91701)

~~~
repsilat
> _The restaurant sector generates $3 trillion in annual sales worldwide, and
> provides employment to a vast number of individuals_

Can someone with an economics background tell me whether this is a sound
argument? It _looks_ like it could be reasonable to me, but it also looks a
lot like the examples of deadweight losses in Bastiat's "That Which is Seen,
and That Which is Not Seen".

I would guess that we should count the $3T transferred as a cost on one side
of the book and as a benefit on the other side, and from an accounting
standpoint not care much either way. I'd also guess we should somehow try to
compare the relative value of the service on each side of the transaction to
gauge somw "surplus" value. People get food they value at $3.1T, and they pay
$3T, and the workers would have done the job for $2.9T, so society wins by
$200B in aggregate. Or something. But maybe that's nonsense?

I don't know if that's reasonable, but I am fairly convinced that we shouldn't
dig $3T worth of ditches just to fill them in. That _is_ deadweight loss.

At the very least I think we can assume that restaurants are not a deadweight
loss because they're profitable, though. People often choose to pay that
premium over cooking for themselves, and we should trust that those choices
reflect personal relative value well.

~~~
foota
I think the most important thing is that they're both a net wealth transfer to
local food service workers (who by and large are relatively low income) and
fuel demand down the road.

Most people will be able to cook for themselves just fine, but by doing so
they'll be saving money, which would otherwise have been spent locally. This
means that that money won't go on to restaurant workers to be spent, and the
remainder won't show up as profit for the restaurant. (Instead it'll go into
savings, which will likely have a negligible effect at best since money is
~free to borrow these days)

Locally this will lead to a depressed demand for everything and globally lead
to a decrease in paper GDP and profit for the companies (read: stonks go
down).

So honestly, I would argue that paying people to dig ditches (vs do literally
nothing else, though at that point you might as well just give them cash) is
in and of itself beneficial, though of course less so than doing something
that generates a benefit outside of that from the activity itself.

~~~
repsilat
> _So honestly, I would argue that paying people to dig ditches (vs do
> literally nothing else, though at that point you might as well just give
> them cash) is in and of itself beneficial_

This is the point -- paying people to dig ditches breaks down into two
activities:

\- Paying people, which is net zero benefit. (Otherwise we could all sit in a
circle and pay each other to riches.)

\- Doing useless work, which is net negative. (Effort, materials and time
spent that coukd have been spent on leisure or actually productive ends.)

GDP is obviously a bad measure here. For the same problem stated another way,
Google and Wikipedia are free, but increase productivity and aggregate
wellbeing immeasurably.

~~~
foota
Paying people is only net zero if the people being paid go and do the same
thing the people paying would have done with that money.

In this case, I'm arguing because of the economic class of the ditch diggers
that this is not the case. The ditch diggers will spend the money locally,
rather than saving it, on things that give them greater utility than what the
people paying for ditches would have gotten (which is most likely just saving
it).

I agree asking people to dig ditches for the money is stupid, but in reality
they'd either be doing something productive that wouldn't have otherwise been
done for structural reasons (building national parks, windmills, solar panels,
etc., things where there is a positive externality that prevents the market
from doing it) or receiving the money for free.

------
evo_9
My wife an I opened a nail and wax salon 6 months ago. Really don't know what
to do, so far they haven't asked us to shutdown. Business had been steadily
growing and we are about break-even. No idea how this will play-out, what if
anything the building owner can do to help out, or how the federal help might
work for a small business like ours.

The rent and payroll are our biggest expenses naturally, we can of course cut
hours and even close entirely; no idea what our staff will do with no income.

If this lasts more than 3-4 weeks (which is likely), yeah it's hard to say how
any business is going to survive.

Only good thing is I have a full time job for a major health company and our
mobile app usage this week has sky rocketed... so my day job is quite secure
at least.

~~~
linuxftw
> Really don't know what to do

People are trapped at home, itching to get out. You run aggressive promotions
right now to drive up your customer base since everyone is sitting at home
bored with nothing to do.

~~~
mft_
Would that be a socially appropriate action to take?

Encourage people out of their homes at a time when it seems that the exact
opposite is needed to start controlling the spread of the virus?

~~~
linuxftw
People are still going out and doing things. Grocery store is open, home
improvement stores are open, Walmart is open. It sounds like their business is
currently open, so they might as well bring in more customers.

------
smallgovt
Not to trivialize the numbers, but people still have to eat, so these dollars
are largely being re-allocated elsewhere, primarily to takeout, food delivery,
and grocery stores. Other sectors that are service-based represent real net
loss in GDP.

~~~
creato
Even delivered groceries are _significantly_ cheaper than eating out. That
difference is mostly the income of restaurant workers.

~~~
smallgovt
If there's a silver lining, it's that takeout is higher margin for restaurants
and I'm sure takeout revenue is spiking during city shutdowns.

~~~
enjo
In today’s world Uber eats, Grubhub, etc take 30% of the gross on an order. No
way it’s more profitable than having people in house buying alcohol.

~~~
karatestomp
The one time I bought on Grubhub I had trouble getting the price to something
reasonable even with the coupon I had (only reason I was trying it) because
all the menu prices were way higher than at the actual restaurants. Even with
(IIRC) the delivery fee waived and a significant % off (I wanna say 20 or 30?)
it was about the same as going in. Does Grubhub do the menu-price adjusting
part, or do the restaurants?

Unlike your average delivery joint the numbers kept getting worse the more you
added, too—no "two large two-topping pizzas and breadsticks at 70% menu price"
deals or anything like that.

~~~
frgotmylogin
I noticed the same thing a while back with DoorDash when trying to order some
Cracker Barrel breakfast. It was something like a 30-40% hike across the
board. I emailed DoorDash to ask what was going on with the prices and got a
super misleading response along the lines of "our partner restaurants set
their own prices" [1]- basically deflecting the blame back at the restaurant.
So I emailed Cracker Barrel, and they are not (or were not at the time)
partnered with any delivery service.

[1] actual text from email: "As stated in our Terms and Conditions, the prices
for menu items on DoorDash may differ from the prices on the restaurant's own
menu. For example, our restaurant partners are responsible for setting the
price of their menu items on DoorDash, and some restaurant partners choose to
set different prices than they offer for in-store diners."

~~~
karatestomp
Actually, it may have been DoorDash I used, now that you mention it. Seemed
like a really gross way to price delivery, giving fake, higher prices on every
single menu item. And then still a delivery fee on top of that! I seriously
had to shop around several of their restaurants and several menu combos to
find one where I wasn't still paying above-menu even with the fairly
"generous" coupon.

~~~
chillwaves
They charge a flat delivery fee, tip and an 11% "service fee". Not surprised
they also have deceptive pricing.

I used the app once because I had a free delivery (that's the 1.99 waived),
ending up costing a lot more than just picking it up myself.

------
DoreenMichele
I've been trying to encourage people to support local eateries by getting
takeout.

I have a compromised immune system. I don't do a lot of eating at restaurants.
I do get a lot of takeout and have for a lot of years now.

If you call ahead or order online and pick up, it minimizes your exposure to
other people. Little Caesar's has a _pizza portal_ where you can order online,
pay online, enter a code at the store and retrieve your own pizza from a
customer-facing warming oven without ever directly interacting with a person.

If you aren't sucking wind financially as a consequence of layoffs and shut
downs, getting takeout can help protect our economy from a total meltdown
while fostering new habits for a healthier future culture.

I'm still getting takeout and some staff at eateries are beginning to greet me
enthusiastically by my first name like I'm their best friend, apparently
thrilled to pieces to have a regular customer while business is hurting.

~~~
yibg
Anyone knowledge about the probabilities of getting infected from takeout /
delivered food? Either via handling at the restaurant itself or en route. All
indications are that the virus can survive quite a while on smooth surfaces
like plastic bags.

~~~
nikanj
The only thing I know, is the people making the food probably don’t get paid
sick leave. With the huge demand in place for delivery food, the pressure is
on from their bosses to keep coming in no matter how sick.

~~~
mikekchar
The opposite is likely true. For example, the big companies making bentos for
the Japanese railway are having their workers come in only 2 days a week.
There is no demand and therefore no work. If you are even remotely ill, there
is no way you are going to get to work -- there is a healthy person who is
desperate to get those hours.

~~~
DoreenMichele
I think this is true in this case.

I began trying to encourage people to get takeout because I heard staff
talking about cutting staff hours because their sales are so bad. The local
Denny's, normally open 24 hours, is only open 8am to 8pm. I saw one guy there
working the register. There's normally multiple staff during the day.

------
save_ferris
Is this really that surprising given that states and countries are now
explicitly prohibiting dine-in options and mandating restaurants to be takeout
only? I'd love to see this data overlaid against the changes in takeout
orders.

~~~
SlowRobotAhead
Absolutely. My town shut down restaurant eat in this week, but when I went my
favorite Thai place for pickup the owner said they had one of their busiest
Saturdays ever. Despite fear, rational or not, people still need to eat.

~~~
mcv
I heard of at least one fancy restaurant that announced they're going to offer
take-out and delivery soon. It's going to be the only way to survive.

~~~
Stratoscope
Here in the Bay Area, that's all _any_ restaurant is allowed to do.

~~~
jmb12686
Here in the _entire state_ of Ohio, literally every dine in restaurant and/or
bar operation has been shut down. Only take out / delivery is allowed:
[https://governor.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/governor/media/news...](https://governor.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/governor/media/news-
and-media/dewine-orders-ohio-bars-restaurants-to-close)

I believe other states / municipalities have started to follow suit, but
entire state shutdown has been surreal.

------
TylerE
Getting ready to nose dive totally.

Here in NC we just joined the list of states that have banned dine-in service
entirely. Curbside or delivery only, after 5PM today.

~~~
AnimalMuppet
In Utah it was 11 PM yesterday. Or at least in Salt Lake City.

~~~
radmarshallb
The governor made it statewide earlier today

------
justinmares
Crazy. Over the weekend my friend Brent and I built something to help -
[https://givelocal.co/](https://givelocal.co/)

Basically, a site that helps you buy gift cards and support your favorite
local restaurant through the COVID pandemic.

Would love community feedback!

------
rosybox
I feel for the industry, but I'm having a hard time seeing myself buying gift
cards at a moment when I'm wondering if I will have a job or food for my
family.

~~~
jpizagno
I was just laid off due to the virus. So yes, be careful.

That is the problem with "corona panic", it causes other people to panic and
behave irrationally

------
dlandis
Does that data indicate that seated reservations are only presently down 56%
YOY in the US ? That's pretty discouraging if that many people are still
ignoring standard guidance.

~~~
bertil
Can someone give money to OpenTable to support restaurant in difficult time?

I wanted to help a couple of local business but there’s nothing on-line:
Google Maps says that they are open (and my city in in lock-down).

~~~
autarch
If your favorite places offer gift certificates, that's a good way to support
them. You're basically giving them an interest-free loan for the amount that
you purchase. I've already done this with a bunch of my favorite local
restaurants.

~~~
mmanfrin
Sadly OT no longer has their old gift card program, which was my baby when I
worked there :<

------
wmeredith
That's about to completely crater. My city issued guidance just yesterday
(3/16) that all dining room service is to stop. Drive through, delivery, and
curbside only.

~~~
the_economist
What city?

~~~
chaoticmass
Not sure about above poster, but I can confirm Dallas did this yesterday.

~~~
bnjms
Ft. Worth cut capacity in half. No ones coming in anyway. The city is probably
just trying to buy a couple weeks before going all in.

------
KptMarchewa
I can't understand why would somebody think that putting latest data on the
left is a good idea.

~~~
milesskorpen
We did it because we've got quite a few days in there, and would prefer not to
have people scroll when we update the data on a daily basis.

~~~
starpilot
Have it by default show the rightmost portion, so that people can scroll to
the left if they want? This is how Yahoo Finance shows a stock chart.

~~~
milesskorpen
Could do that. Took less time to change the ordering so we could get this out.

------
jedberg
I noticed that the global line and the US line are pretty much within 1% of
each other the entire time.

So really this is US data, since it looks like almost all of their restaurants
are in the US. I wouldn't put much stock in the other countries.

That being said, this data certainly shows a devastating trend for the
restaurant industry.

~~~
j88439h84
'trend' doesn't seem like the right word

~~~
jedberg
Devastating collapse?

------
slg
The government has talked about bailouts for various industries from airlines,
to cruise ships, to shale companies. But almost every sector of the US economy
is going to be hit by this and I have no idea how we are going to react. Will
there be a restaurant bailout? What would that even look like? It is much
easier to work on bailing out a handful of airlines but how do you handle it
for literally thousands of small businesses?

~~~
baby
UBI is honestly the only solution here.

~~~
cycrutchfield
How about something a bit more targeted? Do we really need to give software
engineers working from home extra cash?

~~~
fma
That software engineer would spend it elsewhere in the industry, likely some
non-essential.

That hourly worker w/o a job will pay rent and food. Software engineer...a
carwash, new lawn equiment, or hell even a vacation.

Giving an airline a tax break won't drive them more customers. Giving their
customers more money will give them customers.

~~~
cycrutchfield
What? Nobody is going to be flying anywhere soon, regardless of whether you
give everybody $1000.

~~~
fma
$1000 a month per person...Trump has announced at least 2 months of it. I have
my salary still. My wife and I get $4000 of free money. What do you think
we're going to do with it?

You need to think long term what this money can do.

------
drpgq
I own a small share of a bar and we closed yesterday. Definitely hurts
financially before St. Patrick's Day. We're lucky that our rent is low and
we're a pretty small operation with limited food service. I can imagine for
places in downtowns where rent is bigger percentage of sales, that's going to
be tough.

~~~
mNovak
SBA will be distributing low-interest, long term loans, if it helps any.

[https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs/disaster-
assistance](https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs/disaster-assistance)

~~~
Ensorceled
Restaurants typically run at 3-5% margins, how low are these interest rates?

~~~
vxNsr
apparently 3.75%

------
acq_question
This is probably a good proxy of adherence to social distancing

------
aresant
I have a friend that owns a restaurant, doesn't sell gift cards online and no
idea how to do.

What's the fastest way to set up a Gift Card program?

~~~
CodeCube
I truly hope your friend can figure out a way through this ... however isn't
selling gift cards just kind of punting the problem down the road? If their
customers buy gift cards now, and then return to use then in X weeks/months,
wouldn't they just be working for "free" at that point (assuming all the funds
from the gift cards were used to get them through the customer-less time)?

~~~
koheripbal
It effectively acts as an interest free loan to the business.

------
brenden2
Presumably it should be -100% in cities like NYC where restaurants have been
ordered to shut down for in-restaurant dining.

~~~
pbourke
The OpenTable data includes takeout and delivery. I think NYC actually might
do a bit better than other markets, since there is a strong takeout and
delivery culture with most restaurants below the fine dining level.

------
Shermanium
We could turn all these empty hotel rooms into ICU beds if we upgrade to
negative pressure ventilation, and we could turn all these empty restaurants
into community testing and supply distribution centers staffed by the laid off
employees paid for with federal helicopter-drop funds. Think New Deal-level
changes.

~~~
Engineering-MD
Not real possible. ITU wards are highly specialised. However the UK is already
looking at moving the most well patients to hotels and then uograding wards to
ITUs.

~~~
Shermanium
THIS. Yes I'm aware of the challenges, not the least of which is ventilation.
But this is a great step towards a pivot. Thanks!

~~~
Shermanium
[https://www.hospitalityandcateringnews.com/2020/03/covid-19-...](https://www.hospitalityandcateringnews.com/2020/03/covid-19-hotels-
to-be-turned-into-hospitals/)

------
hammock
At this point, what good is "seated diners" data when every restaurant is
takeout and delivery only?

~~~
nemonemo
Though some of the major ones may have the restriction, not all US metros have
the regulation yet. It would be good to have a data on how much of the number
is under the regulation.

~~~
brewdad
I would expect these restrictions to be nationwide by this weekend, if not
sooner.

------
koolba
Losing 30% of retirement savings likely caused a chunk of this as well. Maybe
not the bulk but I’d bet it’s a factor in people pulling back on all spending.

~~~
linuxftw
Technically speaking, nobody should have lost 30% of their retirement savings.
Young people should have much more saving to do, so it will be a smaller
fraction of their overall retirement savings. Older folks should have been
pivoting into less risky assets already.

~~~
koheripbal
Even losing 15% will cause you to cut spending.

------
jpizagno
Related to the restaurant industry, Yelp is laying people off due to the
corona virus. My contract with the Yelp has been withdrawn.

This "corona panic" will kill more people than the virus itself.

~~~
sosodev
Corona panic isn’t going to kill more people than the virus. Also, it
certainly will kill far less people than if we didn’t react at all.

~~~
jpizagno
"Corona panic isn’t going to kill more people than the virus"

I wish I could bet you on that. I could get rich fast

~~~
tomhoward
You can buy stocks/derivatives.

I'm tempted, though I don't have much cash - I keep putting it into startups
(my own and others').

------
ck2
It's not about industry, it's about the people.

We handle this like any other shuttered or suffering business though no fault
of their own, with safety nets for the people.

Problem is those safety nets have been destroyed in this country and people
voted for that to happen on purpose because darn if they are going to let one
single migrant get assistance. This is the result. People feeling they must go
into work sick because "no other choice".

------
spookthesunset
If this lasts more than two or three weeks, at least with out a crisp well
articulated end game, things are going to go downhill very fast.

~~~
ma2rten
I don't see how this can be over in less than 3 months.

~~~
spookthesunset
Based on what data?

If you think society will tolerate this kind of lockdown for more than a few
weeks, you need to rethink your stance.

If we are locked up for 3 months like this you _will_ have your doomsday
scenario. Our entire supply chain will fall apart. People won’t get food,
medicine, things that make them happy. Sporting events, social gatherings,
etc. People will become depressed and kill themselves. People will go nuts and
kill everybody around them.

You’ll have a situation on your hands much, much worse than this virus. Much
worse.

People have lost their damn minds and stopped thinking rationally. Snap out
it. Go on a damn walk. Nobody is gonna be locked down for three fucking
months. If we actually are, I suggest stocking up on guns and ammo now because
that _will_ devolve into a doomsday scenario. One much worse than anything
this virus can possibly dish out.

~~~
2019-nCoV
People in Hubei are closing in on 3 months of lockdown. Other provinces not
far behind. Are Americans really that uncivilised they cannot bear the thought
of several months locked down in the comfort of their own homes?

~~~
koyote
I am sure all the waiters, cooks, restaurant owners, shop owners, shop staff,
cleaning crew, construction workers, gardners, pilots, cabin crew, airport
staff, taxi drivers, dentists, haidressers and business operators staff for
all these businesses will be more than happy to stay at home for 3+ months
without pay.

~~~
2019-nCoV
Such is the reality when a large percentage of the workforce are in
dispensable jobs that are over-exposed to Black Swan events like this.

Countries with an adequate social security net in place have a (temporary)
answer at least.

------
nstj
It would be interesting to see how this lines up with incidence in
coronavirus/covid spread. Some places look to be slower on the uptake in
dropping restaurant reservations, which may portend a more severe onset of cv
in that community.

~~~
pbourke
There are some notable outliers, such as major Florida cities showing less of
a drop (maybe due to Spring Break?) despite Florida having active cases and I
believe a couple of deaths for over a week now.

------
csolorio
I run an online mobile ordering app for restaurants as a side project and have
never seen this many sign ups in one day. I have a full time job so had to
bring my gf on to help with customer support.

~~~
Melting_Harps
> I run an online mobile ordering app for restaurants as a side project and
> have never seen this many sign ups in one day. I have a full time job so had
> to bring my gf on to help with customer support.

Interesting, I'd like to see how the indie apps compete against the big guys
like Doordash and Uber Eats, especially now during this shutdown. What is your
biggest bottleneck, background checks and driver license verification? Bank
accounts?

Let me know if you want an extra hand from a remote worker, I used to have to
do tech support/emails for my startup, too. All while having a day job so I
can understand how overwhelming coming home to 77 unread emails while staring
at a backlog of unresolved tickets can be.

~~~
Melting_Harps
Interesting update:

[https://downdetector.com/status/doordash/](https://downdetector.com/status/doordash/)

------
runevault
I would love to see similar data for other industries as well. Any form of
retail is going to get hit by this. Those that don't have online ordering
setup are in for a world of hurt, and those that have it but don't advertise
it well may not change the message fast enough.

The long term impact for a lot of people is terrifying, but I don't see a way
to avoid it without instead badly damaging our healthcare system and
potentially killing a lot of people.

~~~
throwaway7291
We have built a dashboard to do this sort of tracking
[https://www.econdb.com/covid/Italy/](https://www.econdb.com/covid/Italy/)
which will be improved gradually. Obtaining good proxies for economic activity
can be hard on some sectors.

~~~
batirch
Great insights. Thanks for your work!

------
pentae
I ate at a high end Korean steak house the other night in Bali and ALL guests
were temperature checked and made to use hand sanitizer on the way into the
restaurant. The servers all wore disposable gloves as well. It obviously
doesn't stop people who are asymptomatic but it seemed like a great step in
the right direction. I imagine if more restaurant venues did this they would
get more business during these times.

------
gerland
IMHO the state of the restaurant industry is - why does it still exist? I
would have expected it to move to a service oriented model a long time ago.
Taking into account how underpaid are the workers comapred to how overpriced
they usually are it's nothing short of a miracle. I guess there are SOME
restaurants that are necessay, but there is a few of them on almost every
street near the place I live in.

~~~
veggieburglar
Simple- people other than you enjoy going to restaurants and find value in
them.

------
yalogin
These will be the lingering repurcussions from this crisis. Restaurants might
bounce back but the people working in those places will have a tough time.

------
tkdkop
7shifts also posted yesterday about the effects they're seeing from COVID-19.
Their Seattle customers were hit extremely hard
[https://www.7shifts.com/blog/covid-19-for-
restaurants/](https://www.7shifts.com/blog/covid-19-for-restaurants/)

------
temporaryCocoon
Are the data available in more detail? I would like to see the finer
substructures of the data such as food types and changes in preference. My
business focuses on providing and building such models. If anyone here is from
OpenTable and is interested, feel free to reply to this comment.

------
zdw
Looking at this data, prior to asking people to isolate, I wonder if the day
to day variation is based on a weekly pattern - people culturally may eat out
more on weekends or weekdays, so the same calendar day may not be directly
comparable to the one in the previous year.

------
fimbulvetr
I'd like to see similar data for real estate, though I recognize that the data
is much more proprietary and there's a much longer lead time for some events
(like closings) but for things like showings, open houses, etc. it would be
nice to see.

------
mindfulgeek
Hubby and I own a coffee shop. We closed up on Monday. We have cash reserves
to pay our staff and rent for a month (As if they are still working). Praying
we’ll be able to increase online bean sales to cover payroll before then.

~~~
hedora
It might be better to lay them all off right now, and let them collect covid
unemployment benefits. Maybe give them a bonus on the way out the door if the
math doesn’t work out well enough for them.

That way, you’ll have the cash reserve left over to reliably reopen (and
rehire them) after the crisis.

------
swiley
We didn’t build, now that rent is insane no one will be able to pay it. What
happens next? Will _all_ the service workers end up homeless rather than a
decent fraction?

------
coldcode
In Orlando its 50% capacity, but no sales of booze except to go.

------
bdcravens
Houston, like many cities, banned dine-in, though takeout and delivery are
still options. Obviously Open Table's data won't reflect those sales.

------
Touche
Can anyone explain how you are supposed to pick up food (or have it delivered)
while still maintaining the 6-foot distance from other individuals?

~~~
yeswecatan
Leave it on a table?

~~~
Touche
Many restaurants are advertising curbside service. I assume this means they
bring it to your car. I'm just trying to understand how this all works.

------
chintan
Nice viz. the 102% increase in New Orleans on feb 25 could be explained due to
the ball game between Pelicans vs Lakers

~~~
jihadjihad
Far more likely that it's due to Mardi Gras (Feb 25, 2020)

------
ganoushoreilly
As I was reading this I got a notification that Uber Eats would be providing
$0 fee delivery for food in our area.

------
thom
I realise this is an entirely irrelevant point, but any ideas why Germany was
doing so well up until this crisis?

~~~
jedberg
My guess is that the have very few restaurants in Germany, so it's just noise.

~~~
netsharc
Opened opentable.de, they say they have 1744 restaurants in Berlin alone, 624
in Hamburg, and 1122 in Munich, plus many other cities/regions. I wonder why
only Munich and Hamburg are in the Cities table, and why there's e.g a jump of
19% in Munich for Sunday March 1.

This year it was warm (for winter) and dry on that Sunday, and last year it
was presumably wet and dreary.

------
stronglikedan
On the bright side, I've never received better dine-in service than I have in
the past few days.

------
ape4
Opentable could help their "restaurant partners" by charging them smaller
amount.

------
jborichevskiy
Good data here. I would love to see Square publish something.

------
tinyhouse
Most restaurants moved to take out and delivery mode. Obv no one is doing
online reservations these days. I don't understand what's OpenTable trying to
say here.

------
changoplatanero
What happened in Nebraska in feb 22nd?

~~~
Jim-
The Wilder vs Fury fight? :p

------
dylan604
>the cascading economic impact from just this one sector will be enormous.

The entire hospitality industry is going to take a huge hit. I do work in the
convention, corporate travel/event space, and my calendar up until June has
been wiped out. Cascading is the key thing people seem to gloss over. Sure,
servers and kitchen staff are obvious. The food delivery people will not be
needed. Companies like Aramark that provide cleaning services for floor
mats/uniforms/etc are not needed. Down the line it goes.

~~~
mcv
Food delivery to homes will probably boom. That's going to be the replacement
for visiting a restaurant in the coming weeks or months.

But every luxury industry that involves going outside and meeting people will
be wiped out. The tourist industry is going to be completely dead for a while.
Hopefully it can be revived afterward. Hopefully the people involved can find
other jobs in the mean time. But it's going to be a harsh year for a lot of
people.

It's unbelievable how lucky I am that I can do my work from home.

~~~
bryanrasmussen
if you're home all day long one of the main spurs for going out to eat is
gone, at the end of the day you're no longer too tired to make food, you're
not getting home too late to make it at a good time, you don't need to save
time. Thus the only spur left to wanting to order food is eating something
tasty you can't make at home easily - I admit that is good but given that the
delivery is also a potential virus delivery I expect that it won't be the
replacement.

~~~
oarsinsync
There are a lot of us tech yuppies that either can’t cook or won’t cook. We
will continue to order in all our meals.

Of course that depends on the variety remaining. It may not. It’s been 3 weeks
and I’m already starting to tire of my local options.

Maybe I might end up learning to cook after all...

~~~
BenjiWiebe
If you like the technical aspects of "tech", you could learn to love the
technical aspects of cooking. You can treat cooking as a chore, an art, or a
science. Your choice!

~~~
mcv
Even if you love cooking as an art, it can still be a chore sometimes. It's
hard to deliver art when tired, picky children are screaming.

~~~
madcaptenor
Just like it's hard to deliver good code when tired, picky managers are
screaming.

------
neltnerb
I'm always a little surprised that so many people never picked up the ability
to even do basic cooking.

Of course, as recently as Sunday people like Nunes were telling people it was
important to support their local businesses by eating out as if it were their
patriotic duty. It might be different now that even Fox and Trump are saying
the same thing as the CDC finally.

Maybe not if people literally cannot feed themselves without eating out,
though I think that's pretty embarrassing.

~~~
save_ferris
> I'm always a little surprised that so many people never picked up the
> ability to even do basic cooking.

I'm not, unfortunately. For years now, cooking has been marketed as a waste of
time and effort like hand-washing clothes (think fast food advertising).

Just like anything else, cooking takes time, patience and structure to learn,
which many people don't ever have naturally. I was lucky to grow up in a
household that enjoyed cooking and I learned when I was kid and boy does it
pay off in adulthood, but I also see why so many of my peers don't do it.
Everything in our world is optimized for time now, and cooking takes time.

~~~
jmkb
> For years now, cooking has been marketed as a waste of time and effort like
> hand-washing clothes (think fast food advertising).

Maybe that's the marketing message that hits some demographics, but there's
also plenty of marketing push in the other direction: All the food channels on
cable & youtube, amateur cooking competitions, prosumer kitchen renovations,
gourmet grocery stores, dozens of cooking magazines and thousands of
cookbooks. Not to mention emphasis that cooking skills are desirable for those
in the dating scene.

(Now I'm looking forward to a competitive clothes-washing show... no, that's
too absurd. Maybe competitive tailoring.)

~~~
bentcorner
> _Maybe competitive tailoring_

That exists (kind of). I'm familiar with Project Runway, although that's more
fashion oriented but has a strong technical tailoring aspect to it. I'm sure
there's more Bob Ross-style shows around sewing/tailoring too.

------
76543210
It's a useless industry, it's a disposable luxury. I feel for the workers, but
as a whole, less disposable luxuries sounds good for fiscal responsibility and
productivity.

~~~
blazespin
That's unnecessarily harsh, but I do agree we might want to consider
developing an economy less based on such types of consumer spending. If a
particularly bad flu can take us out like these, we are very fragile indeed.

------
zaroth
Siting at a table with your family that is wiped down just before you sit
seems to me like an incredibly low risk activity.

As in, less risky than picking up food from a grocery store where infected
people are shopping and touching things on a daily basis.

~~~
magduf
I don't see how it's low-risk to have an infected person preparing your food
in the kitchen.

At least with a grocery store, you can wash off the produce before you use it.
With a restaurant, there's nothing covering the food at all.

And remember, the chefs in the kitchen are paid peanuts, and have no safety
net whatsoever, so there's zero incentive for them to get tested or to stay
out of work if they get sick. This is also the case during normal times.
Eating out is a good way to catch something in a country where we think it's a
great idea to fire cooks and other low-wage workers when they call in sick.

~~~
mdavidn
A large number of unknown people from the general public have been in contact
with the dine-in table. Only a handful of kitchen staff are in contact with
surfaces involved in preparing takeout.

Eating at home is still a better idea for the reasons you state, but takeout
is an acceptable if less-ideal alternative.

~~~
magduf
I'm not disputing the fact about unknown people from the general public being
in contact with the table. That's enough of a reason to not dine-in. I'm just
pointing out that I have no trust at all that the cooks aren't infected, and
they're coming into intimate contact with your food.

------
threatofrain
Perhaps US eat-out culture will die, and those who worked those jobs will just
have to find some other means by which to negotiate value from the economy.

~~~
aniro
Remarkable how quickly you were able to dehumanize the economic impact on
millions of lives and yet simultaneously anthropomorphize the “economy”. A
single sentence.

~~~
threatofrain
The restaurant industry is brittle and consolidating, and the the American
middle class might not be strong enough to support it anymore. Recent events
just magnify the weaknesses of the existing system.

We could talk about things like the expansion of government programs, or we
could talk about your theory of how I'm stripping people's humanities away.
You would also presume quite poorly if you thought I haven't worked in the
food industry.

If you have something interesting to offer to the scenario of collapsing
American restaurants, go ahead. Such as more discussion on dehumanization.

~~~
wozniacki
Whats more remarkable is that no one has made a peep about RENTAL PAYMENT
DEFERRALS or SUSPENSIONS to even COMMERCIAL LANDLORDS of APARTMENTS / SINGLE
FAMILY HOMES yet somehow sit-down restaurants and their health are a top
concern.

These priorities are lop-sided at best.

Restaurants are not a critical component of your basic sustenance. They never
were, in the course of human history. Heavy dependence on them for ones
immediate sustenance needs is a very recent development.

On the other hand, shelter is.

~~~
milesskorpen
Probably because the buildings aren't going anywhere. Landlords will lose
money, but they're less likely to lay off tons of people.

Restaurants employ ~10% of working Americans. A lot of people are going to
lose jobs.

~~~
wozniacki

      Restaurants employ ~10% of working Americans. A lot of
      people are going to lose jobs.
    

No one disputes that. Although that 10% figure needs corroboration. As other
comments have pointed out restaurants have switched to take-out and delivery
and will need ample workers for those operations.

But meanwhile what happens to the other 90% Americans who are working who face
uncertain futures - some even in underrepresented sectors or even non-union
sectors? How do they make rent or their mortgage payments?

All I'm asking is why are restaurant workers deserving of such singular
attention and their concerns need such elevation over the rest of the entire
working classes of America including other blue & white collar workers?

~~~
milesskorpen
It's a SINGLE INDUSTRY that represents 10% of our workforce; I think that's
more than any other. Overwhelmingly they are non-unionized. Profit margins for
restaurants are very slim (avg. around 5%). Take-out/delivery is not going to
come close to replacing the lost business. Many restaurants will close - many
already have.

This is not to say other industries (like hotels) won't also be badly hurt.
But restaurants are probably the single largest highly effected sector.

