
Bitcoin and Ethereum tumble after renewed fears of regulatory crackdown - ismaelmc
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jan/16/bitcoin-ethereum-south-korea-fears-regulatory-crackdown-cryptocurrency-markets
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Maarten88
I wonder how the press is so sure that "fears of regulatory crackdown" are the
reason for the drop. Did they talk to big sellers? What is the source? The
story seems just as speculative as the BTC price itself.

Personally, I think it's just as likely that some big bitcoin players are
having their fun with the suckers who bought BTC futures. If I would have lots
of BTC I would have shorted those futures, as much as possible, and then right
before those futures expire (jan 18?) would dump lots of real BTC, crashing
the price and making money on those shorted futures.

Then, after the expiration, I'd start to buy back BTC at the lower price,
using the futures profits. Extra profit for buying futures for the next
expiration date (feb 18?) during the crash...

I don't understand how cash-settled futures are meant to provide price
stability to a market. They just seem to do the opposite to me.

~~~
jacques_chester
> _I wonder how the press is so sure that "fears of regulatory crackdown" are
> the reason for the drop._

You'll notice that this is true of all race-calling journalism.

"The market was down on news that the Fed ..."

"China's announcement caused the market to ..."

"Iron ore prices rose again after production figures from BHP and Rio Tinto
showed ..."

They're not performing exact science. They're hitting the daily quota and
moving on. Something that makes for a good, plausible story is usually the
limit of what you'll get from a journo in a hurry.

~~~
sjcsjc
I once saw this headline on the screen on the trading floor of a bank I was
working at. "Copper prices fall on fears copper prices too high".

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imron
So now it's what, only 10x what it was this time last year?

How will Bitcoin ever recover?!

I don't own any bitcoin, but I remember when it first hit $1,000 and a few
months later it was back down at $200 and I thought, hah, those people who
bought in at $1,000 will never make their money back.

If it drops down to $200 again, this time I might even be tempted to buy some.

~~~
robinduckett
You and everyone else, which will drive up demand and price, and thus the
cycle continues

~~~
bsaul
I guess bitcoin is a great tool for studying human psychology related to
speculation. As it is the most virtual asset one could imagine, backed by
absolutely nothing real, there is nothing you can base your analysis on other
than « what people think other people will do ».

~~~
olalonde
Fiat currencies are a bit similar in that regard (except taxes).

~~~
bsaul
Except they're the official money of a country. that is something the general
people often don't understand with fiat currency. The fact that they are the
official currency for a country, used to pay the salaries of state employees,
and to pay taxes, as well as the central bank policy. All of this gives it an
official utility, and thus an official value.

~~~
CPLX
It's way more than that. Currencies vary based on the entire productive
capacity of a country. When people decide that Japanese cars are reliable,
that Costa Rica's beaches are lovely, or that the Russian private banking
system can't be trusted, that dramatically affects the price of currencies.
Currencies are a proxy for a country's whole economy not just the public
sector.

~~~
bsaul
You could imagine the private sector running on a different economy than the
country’s one. It happens when the government has gone bankrupt ( because of
war or unsustainable debt, for example). But even in that case, the money
still has _some_ value, and can’t completely disappear, even if state
employees run to the bank to exchange their salary against us dollar. Their
value are correlated to the trust and ability to function of a state.

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toadkicker
It is currency and it should be regulated. Algorithmic pumping and dumping is
illegal in most countries, so why should cryptocurrencies be exempt?

~~~
r0fl
Do you have a source for algorithmic pumping and dumping being illegal? Any
sources showing the charges laid against those involved in such pumping and
dumping?

What would happen to me if I algorithmically pumped and dumped in the USA and
was found guilty of it? Some community service or hard jail time?

~~~
misja111
Is this good enough? [http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/pump-and-dump-
fraudul...](http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/pump-and-dump-fraudulent-
companies-fined-1.4239809)

Or just use Google by yourself.

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kabes
So much for the: 'not controlled by a government' argument of
cryptocurrencies.

~~~
asymmetric
That's a strange argument.

Them not being directly controlled by governments doesn't mean that they exist
in a vacuum. At the end of the day, it's people creating/buying/selling them,
so obviously they're affected by: governments, natural disasters, wars, ...

~~~
acdha
That’s true but this was a standard point of bitcoin marketing for years, and
a big reason why it was popular in libertarian circles. It was never true but
a lot of people wanted to believe — basically the economic equivalent of the
guys who think using strong encryption on their data means that a government
will give up.

~~~
krapp
> basically the economic equivalent of the guys who think using strong
> encryption on their data means that a government will give up.

Or Batman dressing like a bat because "criminals are a superstitious and
cowardly lot."

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singularity2001
yesterdays slide continues:
[https://cryptowat.ch/bitfinex/btcusd/30m](https://cryptowat.ch/bitfinex/btcusd/30m)

why is ether course virtually identical?
[https://cryptowat.ch/bitfinex/ethusd/30m](https://cryptowat.ch/bitfinex/ethusd/30m)

not just as a tendency but seemingly even micro movements.

~~~
Nursie
Yup, sub 10k now. This is going to be interesting to watch. There are already
a few sad faces around the office.

I hope nobody's bet the farm on this stuff.

~~~
imron
> There are already a few sad faces around the office.

The ones who only bought in to Bitcoin a month ago? Because Bitcoin's still up
for anyone who bought in the first 11 months of 2017.

~~~
Nursie
The ones who continued to invest over the last couple of months, convinced the
only way was up, yes. The people caught up in the boom reported by the press
and who believed all the hype. Those folks.

Plus, you know, it still seems to be falling. I'm not going to make any
predictions here, because that's next to impossible in a market driven almost
entirely by sentiment, but it's not going to take a lot to unwind time
considerably further.

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tluyben2
It was needed after the party of the past 30 days; all of it was just too
good. It will get back up though. And Yes, of course that is a gamble.

