
Solar and wind are coming. And the power sector isn’t ready - spenrose
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/5/18/17359730/wind-solar-power-grid-electricity-managers
======
diafygi
My favorite climate change joke: "They say we won't act until it's too late...
Luckily, it's too late!"

I have a startup in cleantech software, and often I feel very alone on HN.
Every time the energy transition or climate change comes up on HN, it seems
like most of the replies are either armchair-quarterbacking ("What they should
do is..."), dismissive ("They don't take into account..."), or futile ("This
isn't going to be fixed because...").

What I don't see is gravity for the magnitude of what's going to happen in the
next few decades. Over 80% of the world's energy currently comes from fossil
fuels[1], and the vast majority of that will switch to clean sources within
our careers. It's a $10.2 trillion dollar transition that will happen in just
a few decades[2].

So why the the lack of interest from "high growth" HN crowd? There's fuck ton
of money to be made in the energy transition, and I'm betting that much of it
is going to be in software. Intermittent solar/wind generation + storage
requires a ton of software to (1) deploy enough to displace fossil sources and
(2) actually work reliably. The energy transition isn't a research problem
anymore, it's a scaling problem, which means software opportunity.

Maybe it's the assumption that salaries aren't competitive? Maybe it's because
most business models in energy tech aren't compatible with VC? Maybe it's
because you have no idea what specific problems there are that need solving?
Maybe the assumption is that energy is super slow and bureaucratic?

Anyway, it's always sad to see the 2nd largest industry in the world (the 1st
largest is killing people over energy) always get so categorically poo-pooed
on HN. I'll keep posting[3][4] and hoping that attitude will eventually
change, because we could very much use your talent in making this transition
happen.

Because it really is too late.

[1]:
[https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=11951](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=11951)

[2]: [http://sdg.iisd.org/news/investments-in-renewable-energy-
to-...](http://sdg.iisd.org/news/investments-in-renewable-energy-to-top-
us7-trillion-by-2040/)

[3]:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13250336](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13250336)

[4]:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15127154](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15127154)

~~~
spenrose
Hi Dan!

0\. (We've met briefly; I work at a clean energy startup that relies on
Utility API; I posted this.) 1\. It is too late to prevent civilization-
impacting warming, but it is not too late to have an enormous effect on how
much impact happens how quickly. 2\. "Optimism isn’t principally an analysis
of present reality. It’s an ethic. It is not based on denial or rosy thinking.
It is a moral posture toward the world we find ourselves in." [1] 3\. Ken
Caldiera thinks that the tool-building you have done is the right kind of
work. [2] 4\. Ya, HN has noisy nay-sayers. A lot of them simply have outdated
mental models and excessive self-confidence. Can't do much about the latter,
but posts like yours can chip away at the latter. 5\. If you need a dose of
fact-based optimism, check out recent editions of Chris Goodall's amazing
mailing list. [3]

Your work matters. Keep on keeping on! Best, Sam

[1] [https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/observations-on-the-
day...](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/observations-on-the-day-after)
[2] [https://kencaldeira.wordpress.com/2018/07/21/on-choosing-
pro...](https://kencaldeira.wordpress.com/2018/07/21/on-choosing-problems-to-
work-on/) [3] [https://us9.campaign-
archive.com/home/?u=a336c39e55a6260d59a...](https://us9.campaign-
archive.com/home/?u=a336c39e55a6260d59adbffb0&id=ffb538443d)

~~~
diafygi
Howdy! Thanks for the links. I didn't mean to come off as so fatalistic. I'm
still very optimistic about our future, whether or not other people in tech
participate (it will just take longer, and we'll suffer more consequences).

My point was to mostly to impress that problems exist outside of web tech,
that web tech experts could help solve. The smartest people I know are in the
oil industry. They know how to literally go into Nigeria, bribe the right
gangs, and get the oil out. They are way better at "getting shit done" than
anyone I know in silicon valley. These are the people those of us in cleantech
are up against, so we're severely out-gunned.

We truly do need all the help we can get, even if it is from tech elites. I'm
willing to make that deal with Worry Free[1].

[1]: Reference to Sorry to Bother You:
[https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2018/07/so...](https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2018/07/sorry-
to-bother-you-has-an-eerily-familiar-villain/564698/)

------
jerluc
I'm a bit late to the discussion, but I'm glad to see so many comments here in
response to one of the Utility API founders.

Just wanted to note something very important:

As a co-founder of a very new cleantech software startup, and as a guy coming
into the energy industry initially with only a background in software, you
need to understand that the energy industry (especially in the US) is
incredibly diverse and is really an ecosystem in itself.

The market is not just regulated utilities and their customers. There are
unregulated markets, power generators, ISOs, cleantech vendors, project
developers, installers, financiers, insurance companies, and plenty more
players in the space. Each of these actors serves a different role in the
process of getting a solar array or battery up and running on a building or
out in the field.

And to echo some other comments, the hardware is pretty much all there by now,
with prices getting lower by the month, and the only thing that's missing is
the right software to help scale deployment of capital, energy assets,
installation labor, etc.

[Impending plug is coming]

In fact, this is exactly what my company, Station A
([https://stationa.com](https://stationa.com)), is doing. We've realized that
in the commercial and industrial sectors, renewables are seeing slower
penetration because the high soft costs associated with project development
for the medium-to-small energy consumers. This stems primarily from a lack of
access to critical data, biased sales tactics (solar developers only want to
sell you solar, even if it won't make a difference), and the inability for
project developers to really find the right locations to develop with the
right technology in a scalable fashion.

This sector is ripe for disruption purely with software, as the hardware has
become so much more commoditized.

------
blendo
At our 40 acre walnut orchard in Northern California, we water via two wells
(30 foot water depth) powered by two PG&E-powered electric pumps (60hp and
20hp). There is an agricultural discount if we run them nights and weekends,
so we typically run them on weekends for 12-24 hours. Summer daytime temps are
often 90-95 degrees F. Nighttime watering is also helpful due to less water
evaporation.

But given the duck curve, I expect PG&E will at some point encourage 10am to
3pm power usage. Then it might be cheaper, electricity-wise, to run the pumps
3 times a week, during the heat of the day, instead of overnight on weekends.

Bad: More evaporation, so more water use.

Good: Maybe cheaper, and since trees reduce their photosynthesis when it gets
too hot (to decrease water loss), daytime watering may increase growth by
keeping the air temperature lower.

~~~
jfoutz
You’re in an interesting spot. You could generate your own power, since you
don’t need to store it.

I’d take a long look at how much power you need, and when 5 years of electric
bills are more expensive than your own installation. Maybe never, but prices
do keep falling.

------
michaeljbishop
For those of you skeptical that software can address this problem.

    
    
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_power_plant
    

Adding storage to the grid is one solution, but adding software that can
better influence the demand various customers put on the grid is also
surprisingly effective.

~~~
whatshisface
> _software that can better influence the demand various customers put on the
> grid is also surprisingly effective._

Every time the smart grid comes up, I imagine the power company turning off my
air conditioning because the ability to turn off my air conditioning made them
feel safe to under-provision.

~~~
ncallaway
What if you could set parameters under which the power company could turn off
your air conditioning, and you got paid as a result?

Such as:

* You may turn off my air-conditioning for $2.00/hour as long as my room's temperature is below 75 Fahrenheit.

* You may turn off my air-conditioning for $10.00/hour as long as my room's temperature is below 80 Fahrenheit.

* You may turn off my air conditioning for a maximum of 1-hour per day for $60.00/hour, as long as my room's temperature is below 85 Fahrenheit

* You may, at no point, turn off my air-conditioning between the hours of 10pm-6am.

~~~
1123581321
Anecdotally, we are paid $10/mo for the utility to have the option to disable
our A/C for up to a couple hours a day. They do not pay us for the time they
actually disable A/C, but I don’t it hasn’t actually happened yet, so we are
“winning” that bet. I think that customers would bid this option lower than
$10, given the option, but agree others wouldn’t touch it. I hope that the
price mitigated the real risk of supply planning skew mentioned by the GP.

------
LiamPa
Current UK status:

[http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/](http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/)

Is there a US equivalent?

~~~
toomuchtodo
Worldwide map:

[https://www.electricitymap.org/?page=map&solar=false&remote=...](https://www.electricitymap.org/?page=map&solar=false&remote=true&wind=false)

------
AdamM12
If they are expecting to lower energy costs then why do they want more
subsidies? Or on the other end a carbon tax to penalize competitors? I'm sure
there are policy prescriptions other than subsidies that can be beneficial to
the industry but the ones that seem to get the most discussion are production
tax credits and carbon tax.

~~~
megaremote
It still costs money to build this stuff. And you might be asking why does
coal and gas get subsidies?

~~~
AdamM12
They get deprecation like everyone else which helps subsidize the building of
facilities as well as certain on going capital expenditures. Why do they need
a production tax credit also (industry specific)? Talking simply renewables so
coal & gas is another discussion.

------
techbio
Power sector isn't ready, nor anyone else. Developing power to heavy usage
areas from available generation areas is like building new railroads. Success
will arise from new, large, government-granted monopoly operations and be slow
and pricey without political support at local levels and paying to or seizing
from the many literal NIMBY people affected.

[https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609766/how-to-get-
wyoming...](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609766/how-to-get-wyoming-wind-
to-california-and-cut-80-of-us-carbon-emissions/)

Alternatively, of course, solar roof tiles get mandated for new construction
and these problems go away.

~~~
test6554
I'm not really in favor of an energy production mandate for new homes, but
even if I was, I wouldn't want to be locked into solar, or even solar roof
tiles specifically by law or statute.

~~~
techbio
An economic mandate could be triggered by an imperative to balance climate-
control costs with passive home production systems.

------
spenrose
"The US electricity system is at an extremely sensitive and uncertain
juncture. More and more indicators point toward a future in which wind and
solar power play a large role. But that future is not locked in. It still
depends in large part on policies and economics that, while moving in the
right direction, aren’t there yet. And so the people who manage US electricity
markets and infrastructure, who must make decisions with 20-, 30-, even
50-year consequences, are stuck making high-stakes bets in a haze of
uncertainty."

~~~
mtgx
Anyone looking at the past 10 years of solar and wind growth and price
declines who is still "unsure" what the future will bring in the next 10 years
and what they should be betting on doesn't deserve to run the given power
companies.

~~~
Pica_soO
Its over- any attempt to delay solars victory with regulations, will result in
solar being deployed elsewhere (offshore/ south-america) and then delivered at
combat prices to the border, deforming a future energy grid even further.

~~~
lstodd
That's only so if you don't take transmission losses into account. Somehow
many people tend to forget that transmission isn't free or even cheap.

~~~
mmt
Indeed. Energy in chemical form is astonishingly cheap to transmit (and
store), but, as electricity, it's completely different. The storage problem is
part of the point of the article, of course.

I always thought this was one of the advantages of rooftop solar, that it
would reduce transmission costs by bringing generation closer to consumption,
especially at peak, and not necessarily because of costs due to losses in the
transmission lines, but costs due to maintaining the necessary capacity in
those lines (a challenge for both the SFBA and NYC, IIUC).

------
carapace
I apologize in advance for what is pretty much a tangent, but I wanted to
mention a kind of passive wind generator that has no moving parts:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaneless_ion_wind_generator](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaneless_ion_wind_generator)

It's basically one half of Lord Kelvin's Thunderstorm turned sideways and
powered by wind instead of gravity.

Imagine a conductive screen, like an aluminum screen door and, upwind of it, a
spray nozzle that emits mist. There is a conductive ring around the nozzle
that is DC-biased so that the mist droplets carry a charge. The wind moves the
droplets to the screen, collecting the charge.

There are no moving parts so you wouldn't injure birds.

~~~
whatshisface
At first glance it seems like this would constantly consume fresh water due to
evaporation.

~~~
ajmarcic
This link indicates the process relies on water's conductivity:
[http://www.amasci.com/emotor/kelvin.html](http://www.amasci.com/emotor/kelvin.html)

(and works in spite of the higher resistivity of fresh, or even deionized
water)

~~~
whatshisface
It would be very difficult to spray saltwater through nozzles, the evaporation
would cause salt buildup and clog them.

------
westurner
I don't know that fatalism and hopelessness are motivating for decision makers
(who are seeking greater margins regardless of policy and lobbies).

Is our transformation to 100% clean energy ASAP a certain eventuality? On a
long enough timescale, it would be irrational for utilities to not choose
_both_ lower cost _and_ more sustainable environmental impact ('price-
rational', 'environment-rational').

We should expect storage and generation costs to continue to fall as we
realize even just the current pipeline of capitalizable [storage] research.

Solar energy is free.

------
mrfusion
I’ve mentioned it before. I think I have a new low cost approach to
residential solar if anyone is interested in helping or teaming up.

------
eximius
At first glance I read "solar wind is coming" \- which is a more alarming and
perhaps even less prepared for condition.

------
childintime
For some perspective:

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxryv2XrnqM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxryv2XrnqM)

------
CosmicShadow
Aw, I misread as Solar Wind is coming, got excited for some strange new form
of electricity harvesting :(

------
agumonkey
> President Trump has embraced fossil fuels, ...

still unbelievable

