
American Astronauts to Return to Moon Within 5 Years, VP Pence Pledges - slg
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/26/science/nasa-moon-pence.html
======
eesmith
I've heard this promise all my adult life, and some of my childhood.

Under George W. Bush, the NASA Authorization Act of 2005 directed the NASA
administer to "strive to achieve" milestones including "Return Americans to
the Moon no later than 2020" and "Launch the Crew Exploration Vehicle as close
to 2010 as possible" \-
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_Authorization_Act_of_2005](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_Authorization_Act_of_2005)

The Augustine Committee in 2009 determined that it would not be possible with
the budget available. "The Committee judged the 9-year old Constellation
program to be so behind schedule, underfunded and over budget that meeting any
of its goals would not be possible. President Obama removed the program from
the 2010 budget effectively canceling the program." \-
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Review_of_United_States_Human_...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Review_of_United_States_Human_Space_Flight_Plans_Committee)

Instead, Obama wanted "a U.S.-crewed orbital Mars mission by the mid-2030s,
preceded by an asteroid mission by 2025"
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_policy_of_the_Barack_Oba...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_policy_of_the_Barack_Obama_administration)

Going back in time, the Space Exploration Initiative was a policy in the
George H. W. Bush administration. "he described plans calling for constructing
Space Station Freedom, sending humans back to the Moon "to stay" and
ultimately sending astronauts to explore Mars." \-
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Exploration_Initiative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Exploration_Initiative)

So, excuse me while I screw up my face and point out that until I see a real
political push by the administration for actual, serious funding, I ain't
holding my breath. And the NYT piece says there is no such funding.

~~~
joemaller1
Agreed on all of that and maybe it's a mistake, but I'm actually kind of
hopeful this time.

Bush's made an empty campaign promise then Obama kicked the idea so far down
the road it was totally out of sight.

But five years? That's doable insane. Like, get Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and NASA
in a room ask them who wants this more.

~~~
eesmith
From what I can tell, this new proposal is more empty than that of George W.
Bush's administration.

1) Bush's does not seem to have been a campaign promise. While the vision was
proposed in an election year, it also received Congressional funding - $16.2
billion - and legislation in the same year.

Note that Trump started his reelection campaign when he entered office, so
anything he says about the future can be regarded as a campaign promise, yes?

2) There does not appear to be funding behind the Trump administration's
proposal. Quoting the NYT piece, "an accelerated pace has not been evident in
the Trump administration’s NASA budget requests to Congress, raising many
questions about how it will be possible for the agency to accomplish this
ambitious goal." Much less the White House pressure that the Bush
administration used to get their full budget through.

(Quoting
[https://web.archive.org/web/20050913093403/http://www.space....](https://web.archive.org/web/20050913093403/http://www.space.com/spacenews/archive04/congressarch_120604.html),
"The White House, which had threatened to veto a bill moving through the House
during the summer that would have cut $1.1 billion from NASA’s request, leaned
on appropriators during the closing days of the budget battle to make NASA a
high priority.")

3) I see no indication that Trump prioritizes this policy anywhere near as
high as Bush did.

As to "doable insane" for going to the Moon now, note that Bush announced in
his 2004 speech "Our second goal is to develop and test a new spacecraft, the
Crew Exploration Vehicle, by 2008, and to conduct the first manned mission no
later than 2014."

That was 4 years for a new spacecraft. Certainly that's more doable and sane
than going to the Moon, which was Bush's third goal. Yet it wasn't done.

No matter which of Musk, Bezos, or NASA might want it more, how much money do
you think they'll need, and where is that money?

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joemaller1
The last time a human being stood on anything but Earth was December 11, 1972
(Apollo 17). God, I hope they're serious and can pull this off.

------
foobarbazetc
Why?

~~~
joemaller1
Not because it's easy, but because it's hard. And because it's there.

~~~
gus_massa
50 years later, the reason is not that it is hard. The reason is that it is
easy[1] now, but it's still inspiring, so you get the votes anyway.

[1] Where "easy" means that they will have a 1% chance of dying, but that
almost a half of the risk of flying in the Space Shuttle.

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yogthos
on what budget?

