
A Study That Bolsters the Lead-Crime Hypothesis - curtis
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/06/powerful-study-lead-crime-hypothesis
======
anigbrowl
It's a really strong study. N= ~1500, the cost-benefit ratio from remediation
in improved education outcomes and lower social costs of crime is 1.8.
Probably 1 million children across the US have been impacted by elevated blood
lead levels over the last 20 years. there is no good reason to postpone acting
on this problem, which is well understood by now.

[https://www.dropbox.com/s/07z65p9a5wdppfl/LifeAfterLead_AEJ_...](https://www.dropbox.com/s/07z65p9a5wdppfl/LifeAfterLead_AEJ_Revision_3_16_17.pdf?dl=0)

~~~
malandrew
Wow. Those are some remarkable results.

I've hypothesized for a while now that the Black Lives Matter movement might
be distracting us from what might be the true cause of the problems they seek
to address. Blaming the problem on "racist" cops by default instead of
performing a root cause analysis is leading us to overlook the likelihood that
poorer communities, that are often predominantly black, are more likely to be
exposed to lead.

[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/07/13/black-children-
at-r...](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/07/13/black-children-at-risk-for-
lead-poisoning-_n_7672920.html)

~~~
dragonwriter
> I've hypothesized for a while now that the Black Lives Matter movement might
> be distracting us from what might be the true cause of the problems they
> seek to address. Blaming the problem on "racist" cops by default

Since BLM focuses on a wide array of social, political, and economic, and
environmental issues (including interplay between issues in the various
domains) involved in the social dismissal of the value of black lives, and not
"racist cops by default" (indeed, the motivating event for BLM's formation
wasn't even a law-enforcement killing), I think your complaint is misdirected
and should instead be directed at whatever media channels you consume that
give you this distorted view of BLM.

~~~
malandrew
My sources here aren't media channels, but every single BLM member or
supporter I've engaged in debate with (n>100) until this comment (probably
because this is the first venue I've raised this where lead poisoning is the
primary topic of conversation). To date, not a single supporter or member I've
engaged with has acknowledged lead poisoning as a potential culprit when I try
to raise it (probably because acknowledging lead poisoning as a cause requires
one to also acknowledge the higher incidence of violent crime committed by
black men, which is inconvenient to the racist police narrative they are
pushing).

In these debates, I usually point to this table of FBI statistics, which shows
a significantly higher level of crime committed by both men (all races) and
black men in particular on a per capita basis as an explanation for the
disproportionate number of men and in particular black men shot by cops.

[https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-
the-u.s.-...](https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-
the-u.s.-2014/tables/table-43)

Cops are more aggressive with black people but don't actually kill them at a
greater rate relative to the number of violent crimes committed. Here is
Roland G. Fryer's research showing this:
[https://www.nber.org/papers/w22399](https://www.nber.org/papers/w22399)

I'm not discounting that black lives matter. I'm supportive of it. My point is
that if we really care about fixing the problems that result in increased
mortality in that demographic, we should instead be focusing on likely root
causes such as lead poisoning. Lead should be getting so much more attention
in the BLM debate, but it does not. Why?

~~~
briholt
BLMers will scream "murder" and "hands up don't shoot" at the top of their
lungs at every chance they get, but when confronted with the evidence that the
alleged victim of a police shooting was in fact a violent criminal living in
violent neighborhood, suddenly the movement is about social issues and body
cameras...until the next shooting and the cycle repeats.

A movement genuinely pushing for reasonable police reform and replacing lead
pipes (for all people of all colors) would be much better received. But the
problem is the movement is self-evidently not about actually solving problems.
It's about pushing racial narratives. I suspect responses to your comment will
further affirm this.

~~~
panic
It doesn't matter whether they're violent criminals. Our country has a court
system. The role of judge, jury and executioner does not belong to police
officers.

~~~
briholt
That's delusional. When a criminal reaches for a gun, or aims it at a person,
or even tackles an armed cop, cops absolutely have the right and the
obligation to shoot. And when BLM lies about criminals in the act of
threatening cops, they endanger both cops and the very communities which they
pretend to save.

~~~
panic
I was just speaking to the part about being a "violent criminal living in a
violent neighborhood" \-- that doesn't justify shooting someone.

Typically in these cases the victim wasn't threatening the police officer's
life in any way. Walter Scott was shot while running away. Freddie Gray was
already safely in police custody. Eric Garner was selling loose cigarettes,
not attacking anyone. Tamir Rice was a 12 year old playing with a toy gun.

~~~
ForHackernews
Sandra Bland was an unarmed woman frustrated by a traffic stop.

------
douche
The lead-violence correlation is very, very interesting. What always makes me
wonder is how much historical effect environmental factors like this must have
had. Lead used to be ubiquitous, between paint, pipes, roofing, glass, solder
- the Romans even cooked in lead vessels at times.

There's probably no way of ever teasing out all the different factors, but
when you read accounts of what daily life was like in, say 18th century
London, and a.) violence was quite common-place, and b.) virtually everyone
kept themselves inebriated enough to fail a breathalyzer at all times.
Probably b.) contributed a good deal to a.), but if everybody is also
suffering from low-level chronic lead poisoning...

~~~
naasking
Crime and violence has been falling steadily over the past century too. Makes
you wonder if this significant social change isn't because of better
education, social programs, etc., but simply because of other factors like
this that we're simply unaware of.

~~~
Gibbon1
No one disputes that other factors are important. For instance cultural
attitudes about violence are important. As is the reach of civil government.
Not to mention that in the US violence is a particular problem because of
ready access to handguns.

My take having read about this theory for about ten years now it looks like
the preponderance of the evidence says that lead exposure is at least as
significant as the above. Meaning it's not just this study, it's all the other
ones as well. With the lead thoery you have the following.

1\. A known mechanism. Lead cause brain damage with poor impulse control. 2\.
Dose response correlation between lead exposure and violent crime.

Thing that freaks me out is what did exposure to lead and resulting poor
impulse control do to politics in the US.

------
jostmey
Scary that airplanes are still allowed to use leaded fuel.

Somehow society is stuck between the information age and the stupid age.

[https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/lead-in-
aviation-...](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/lead-in-aviation-
fuel/)

~~~
entee
A quick check on wikipedia quotes:

"Current aircraft engines feature valve gear components which are designed for
compatibility with the leaded ASTM D910 fuels. In such fuels, the lead acts as
a lubricant, coating the contact areas between the valve, guide, and seat. The
use of unleaded auto fuels with engines designed for leaded fuels can result
in excessive exhaust valve seat wear due to the lack of lead. The result can
be remarkable, with cylinder performance deteriorating to unacceptable levels
in under 10 hours."

[https://web.archive.org/web/20120413123438/http://www.tcmlin...](https://web.archive.org/web/20120413123438/http://www.tcmlink.com:80/visitors/carenfeed/engoperhdr.cfm)

Also lead is an anti-knock agent so it is used to get to the very high octane
ratings in Avgas.

And it seems the problem may be solved soon!

"By May 2012, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA Unleaded Avgas
Transition rulemaking committee) had put together a plan in conjunction with
industry to replace leaded avgas with an unleaded alternative within 11 years.
Given the progress already made on 100SF and G100UL, the replacement time
might be shorter than that 2023 estimate."

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avgas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avgas)

------
jbg_
Can anyone explain to me why the group that had high exposure but an
intervention that reduced their exposure to about 5 on the graph, has much
lower violent crime levels than the group that had an exposure of around 5 and
no intervention?

~~~
sloppycee
That does seem like an issue with the study, from the pdf:

 _" Two primary channels emerge through which intervention affects antisocial
behavior and cognitive outcomes. First, intervention may dramatically reduce
the amount of continued childhood exposure to the dangerous neurotoxin by
directly reducing exposure risks within the home environment. Second, long-
term benefits may occur through improvements in early-life health unrelated to
any changes in lead exposure. [11] ...

[11] The elevated BLL intervention package includes treatments previously
demonstrated to impact later-life outcomes such as: visits from health
workers; increased medical care; nutritional assessments and dietary
modifications; and referral to the Special Supplemental, Nutrition Program for
Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). Prior research documents long-term
benefits from programs similar to each of these elements ..."_

Why didn't they control for the other intervention treatments? One where they
reduce BLL + other treatments, and one where they didn't reduce BLL but still
gave the other treatments?

~~~
btilly
This is a reasonable question which has some very good answers.

The data is from a program that aimed to mitigate problems from high lead. The
program's primary aim wasn't to allow papers to be published about their
research goal many years later. You make the best use that you can of the data
that you've got. And don't insist on the perfect data that you don't have.

But even if this had been designed as a pure research program, the design that
you suggest would never be approved on ethical grounds. We accumulated enough
data many years ago on the negative impact of lead that we cannot in good
conscience withhold treatment for the sake of collecting better data. Review
the history of the Tuskegee Study for an example of why such ethical
guidelines were put in place.

------
erentz
This still affects a lot of communities in California. [1] (And, of course
elsewhere across the country.)

[1] [http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-lead-california-
exclus...](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-lead-california-exclusive-
idUSKBN16T18Y)

------
lsiebert
Efforts to reduce lead exposure in the 1980s arguably were behind much of the
lower crime rates in the 1990s and 2000's that we've seen. There are other
studies cited in relevant wikipedia articles like
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#cit...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#cite_note-13)

And yes, crime rates are significantly lower adjusting for population, though
that's not always conveyed accurately by those in authority and the news
media.

------
theprop
Wow, yes, could be very true!! Could be related to higher crime rates by
certain minority groups that may tend to live in old homes with lead paint.

Historically, the great great great painter Caravaggio was quite
violent/irritable and died sadly so so young (30 something) and many theories
are that he was quite irritable/violent because of lead poisoning (he was
prolific, working all the time with lead points).

~~~
anigbrowl
Definitely true. Nowadays painters use bleached titanium to get a brilliant
white, but until the late 19th century lead salts were the norm. Basically you
hammer out ingots of lead into flat strips, roll them up into a cylinder, and
seal them in ceramic jars full of vinegar for 6 months. When you take them out
the lead has turned white and is them ground up into powder and mixed with
oil.

You can still get this from a few specialty suppliers and it's reasonably safe
to use as long as you wear gloves paint slowly enough that you don't get it
all over your skin. Ingested lead is much more dangerous than skin contact,
and of course the process of grinding the treated strips of lead into powder
was a respiratory and gastric disaster - although people were not completely
clueless and apprentices in art studios would often cover their lower face
with a wet cloth.

------
renega3
Considering it's the basis of the entire hypothesis, here's the nature of the
intervention:

All cases with two BLL tests exceeding the alert threshold (10 ug/dL) trigger
eligibility for an intervention which includes the following actions:
education for caregivers (which includes nutritional advice and information
about reducing exposure in the home); a voluntary home environment
investigation; and a referral to lead remediation services. A more intensive
intervention can be triggered by tests over 15 ug/dL or 20 ug/dL. In addition
to educating caregivers and providing a referral to remediation services, the
intensive intervention typically includes: a mandatory home environment
investigation; nutritional assessment; medical evaluation; developmental
assessment; and a referral to the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for
Women, Infants, and Children (WIC)

------
alexilliamson
From the article: "The statistical significance of the drop is extremely
strong"

I haven't read the source paper yet, but the way this is phrased makes me
skeptical of the strength of these findings. Having worked briefly on a lead
remediation project for a city government who has been in the news recently
for lead, I can tell you that this is a really tough question and the
confounding factors are huge. The political consequences mean that folks have
incentive to seriously overstate (or understate) the importance and validity
of a study like this.

~~~
nabla9
There have been several studies over the years and the evidence is strong.

Crime rates seem to drop with 20 year lag after TEL phaseout in gasoline
starts. Different countries banned TEL at different times and it's very hard
to deny connection.

------
Bakary
It's sad how deterministic our lives really are.

------
nerpderp83
Chicago needs to fix this.

------
rntz
The article title on the original site was changed from "... Confirms the
Lead-Crime Hypothesis" to "... _Bolsters_ the Lead-Crime Hypothesis", since
"It's a good study, but it's still just one more study." Title here should be
changed likewise.

~~~
sctb
Thank you, we've updated the headline here.

------
Romanulus
Isn't this just a roundabout way of saying that people with lower IQs are more
prone to criminal activity?

~~~
nerpderp83
No.

Look at people with Down-Syndrome, they are extremely thoughtful and nice.
Least likely to commit a violent act or partake in criminal activity.

~~~
VladKovac
there's a sweet spot, obviously if you go too low you're talking about barely
autonomous people

------
mrfusion
comment deleted

~~~
astrodust
If only there were some kind of service where one could type in queries like
this and receive answers...

~~~
HankB99
There are! I Googled for "online query answerer" and there were 131,000
results.

