
Don't Expect Millions to Die from Coronavirus, Says Richard Epstein - fortran77
https://reason.com/video/dont-expect-millions-to-die-from-coronavirus-says-richard-epstein/
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tengbretson
In the US, I suspect a few thousand, perhaps in the 10s of thousands, will die
from Coronavirus.

The people touting all sorts of preventative measures trying "flatten the
curve" will claim victory and pat themselves on the back.

The people saying "its just the flu but with extra hype" will look at the
final numbers, determine that they were right and pat themselves on the back.

And the different factions in this country will go back to their regularly
scheduled shouting past each other and calling their respective out-groups
idiots.

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sharemywin
I think the number of ventilators in the US is like 200K and hopefully with
"flattening the curve" the goal is to keep deaths near a million in the US.

[https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/a-new-
analysi...](https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/a-new-analysis-
predicts-1-1-million-coronavirus-deaths-in-a-medium-case-scenario/)

And if they're wrong I'm sure they will be happy they were wrong.

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t-writescode
A 1% death rate is 3 million people in the US, assuming 100% infection rate. A
.3% death rate is about 1 million. I hope we’re so fortunate to keep it below
1 million.

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forkexec
Hope isn't reality. Overall 20%-50% infection rate is most likely because of
the multiple infection waves due to cycles of shutdowns and the extreme
infectivity that will occur before a safe and effective vaccine candidate can
be manufactured. That maybe 3-5 years. Also, post-resolution immunity duration
is unknown.

Furthermore, infection rates in the US aren't being tracked so the CFR
denominator is completely unknown.

And, focusing on CFR alone is myopic because of the serious, potentially
permanent lung damage that occurs from this virus in those who have "mild"
symptoms. There are a plethora of reports of unknown-lasting reductions in
lung function by 20-30%.

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tonyedgecombe
Why would I listen to a law professor for information on epidemiology?

