
Facebook’s Platform Opportunity - Amorymeltzer
https://stratechery.com/2020/facebooks-platform-opportunity/
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AndrewKemendo
I have a feeling that technology companies that have as their primary source
of income advertising (aka Google & FB) are going to encounter major problems
in the next decade for a couple of reasons.

1\. The growth period for distribution for digital ads is basically over.
We're firmly in the consolidation period and Google and FB have taken the
majority of the digital ad market. There's basically no room to grow into,
it's just about eating up the boundaries and new entrants.

2\. Regulation seems to be coming for user data and these big ad platforms.
Google and FB are trying to play the regulatory capture game so they stay in
business, but again it's not a growth business - it's playing defense.

It seems like Google is best positioned to actually pivot to selling
enterprise/consumers services with GCP and their services offerings. They also
have an opportunity in hardware.

Facebook on the other hand seems to only have hardware as it's future, but
they are up against Apple and Samsung and Google for that.

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mark_l_watson
I basically agree with you, disagreeing on just point: I think (and hope!)
that VR hardware like Oculus Quest and the accompanying media store might get
big. I rarely use FB (mostly for shamelessly plugging new books I write) but
the Oculus device pulled me back in a little. Currently, Oculus entertainment
like Lucas Arts’ Vader Immortal trilogy is such fine entertainment that it
blows me away. Other Oculus activities like watching Netflix and Amazon Prime
Video in a VR theater is cool, but the graphics resolution needs to increase
for that use case.

I can imagine a future Oculus Quest as being a primary way to interact with
the Internet, streaming entertainment, immersive 3D games, etc. I think FB has
a lot of headroom for how big this business could get.

Just to be transparent: in the distant past, I worked on VR for Disney and
SAIC, and games for Nintendo. So, I am prone to exuberant joy by any good VR
experience, so please take my opinions with the large dose of skepticism that
they deserve.

~~~
randomsearch
> I can imagine a future Oculus Quest as being a primary way to interact with
> the Internet, streaming entertainment, immersive 3D games, etc. I think FB
> has a lot of headroom for how big this business could get.

100%. if they get it right.

Facebook as a company was entirely doomed long-term until they bought Oculus
(should that have been allowed?). VR is going to explode in the next ten
years, and if Facebook plays its cards right it will become a VR platform
company instead of an ad company. And that VR will be far more stable than
faddish social networking or ad spam. For most people I know Facebook is dead,
and Instagram's demise is just one gimmicky app launch away (TikTok++).

I'm gutted about Facebook's purchase of Oculus personally, because (unlike the
article) I think Facebook's behaviour has been absolutely reprehensible,
including its refused to remove outright, hugely damaging, political
propaganda from its platform for the sake of profit. I really don't want a
company with that culture owning the VR space. I pray it won't.

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tomaszs
Facebook was a platform for several years. And most value came from 3rd
parties. Just to mention the wall as we know it today was a 3rd party
application.

So what happend to the platform? Facebook canibalized it. Copied better apps.
Blocked developers who was too good, bought others. Closed APIs when the
ecosystem started to grow.

Collected detailed information about ideas people had for applications.

For me, doing any app integrated with Facebook is something to be considered
as 100% risk. Either you fail, or you will be succeed and destroyed.

I will never participate in any "platform" made by Facebook. And i believe a
lots of developers who wrote anything using Facebook Platform share the same
feeling.

~~~
hienyimba
To me, Facebook was just first to the Cannibal party. Apple, Google, Amazon,
Netflix and most known platforms does the same thing too by cannibalizing
Third-party apps and products (Amazon). Will you never build on these too?

~~~
tomaszs
Never, correct. Especially nothing around FB, GOO. Moreover i am moving this
year away from all services provided by these companies.

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msoad
I'm not sure if investing in FAN will make Facebook less of what it is today
to avoid regulatory scrutiny. Author argues Google is a platform because of
DoubleClick but fails to mention how Google is moving away from that model as
fast as it can. See AMP and hotels as examples of Google trying to bring all
ads in house. There is also ad fraud that is a huge problem for 3rd party
properties which Facebook doesn't have to deal with.

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basch
I strongly believe Facebook is missing out on becoming a cloud platform.

I drew up my thoughts with Stratechery-like pictures.
[https://telegra.ph/Facebook-Social-Services-FbSS-a-missed-
op...](https://telegra.ph/Facebook-Social-Services-FbSS-a-missed-
opportunity-02-03)

~~~
randomsearch
My impression is that Facebook's engineers are unlikely to be able to compete
with Google's and Amazon's in that space. If so many of them are writing PHP,
how does that translate to building cloud infrastructure services, for
example?

