

Ask PG: Is Ray Kurzweil full of it? - rpm4321

I've noticed that few other topics spark as much acrimony and mudslinging on HN as Ray Kurzweil and the Singularity -- maybe it's worse when the libertarian and liberal wings of HN go at it, or when the ongoing "language wars" flare up, but that's about it.<p>Ray seems to have a pretty impressive list of supporters - Marvin Minsky, Larry Page, Bill Gates, Dean Kamen, Peter Norvig, Rafael Reif, Tomaso Poggio, Stephen Wolfram, Dileep George, etc. - and some very high-profile detractors - Hofstadter, Kevin Kelly, Mitch Kapor, Gary Marcus, and Paul Allen.<p>Personally, I think a lot of his conclusions are probably inevitable in the long term - say 100 years out - but I'd guess that his timelines may be too optimistic to benefit any of us personally. It's also hard to ignore the parallels between the Singularity and religious belief, and how that might betray wishful thinking on the part of its adherents.<p>Anyway, I just thought it would be interesting to hear your take on it.<p><i>NOTE: this is a repost of http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5005630 - it looks like I was flagged for the colorful language in the title. Sorry about that, it didn't seem out of line when I was posting it.</i>
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pg
I have no opinion; I'm not familiar with his ideas.

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rpm4321
Hey Paul, thanks for responding.

Just in case you’re interested, this Time cover story on him from a couple of
years back actually does a reasonably good job on the broad strokes:
[http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2048299,00....](http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2048299,00.html)
as does this NY Times one:
<http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/13/business/13sing.html> \- there's also this
intro by Peter Norvig to a Google Talks event with Ray from a month ago:
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zihTWh5i2C4>

The basic idea is that exponential growth in tech will result in strong AI,
advanced nanotech, biotech, and neural interfaces that will lead to a near
utopian civilization (if things go smoothly) in less than forty years. As
outlandish as it seems, he actually makes a fairly convincing, well-researched
case, and has had a pretty impressive career as an inventor and tech
prognosticator. Needless to say, he’s a very polarizing figure.

