
Ford to mass-produce a completely self-driving car within five years - sndean
http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/08/ford-to-mass-produce-a-completely-self-driving-car-within-five-years/
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semi-extrinsic
I think this is the key takeaway from this article:

<<Expect level 4 cars to take quite a while longer to reach private hands.
"The economics simply don't make sense," [Ford CTO] Nair said.>>

Indeed: how much more are you willing to pay for a car where you don't do
anything? Not much. How much more is a cab company prepared to pay for a car
that doesn't need a driver? A lot.

For private cars I expect we'll see more and more refinements of driver
assists in the premium market segment, but not much apart from the odd
trickle-down to cheaper cars. Reason being LIDAR, tons of sensors and data
processing power will still be very expensive, and in the cheap end of the
market, people are still skimping on carpets and electric windows.

One example that immediately springs to mind is the flashing warning light in
the mirror when another car is in your dead zone. Relatively simple, useful,
"stupid" (as opposed to "smart") tech. I expect it will be standard equipment
in five years.

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josv
Curious about what drives the cost difference vs. a "consumer" car. The sensor
suite? (Is it just lidar vs. radar?)

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TYPE_FASTER
Sensor suite, software licensing, and data licensing. If solid state lidar can
get there soon enough, that will help. Data licensing for extremely accurate
data for everything - traffic lights, stop signs, every single intersection,
etc.

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josv
Really interesting; thanks.

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stevehiehn
I think the important take-away here is that all the major players are now in
a public arms race. Which means autonomous cars are almost certainly going to
happen.

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jpeg_hero
I think we've all come to accept that Level 3 (return control to driver) is
just not feasible.

Without the sensory stimulus that comes from driving the average harried
American will be asleep in under 5 minutes.

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WalterSear
Apparently, 'just five short years away' is the new 'just ten short years
away' \- an mythically ambitious number, remains irrefutable because nobody,
including the people making the claim, can see that far into the research and
development process.

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xiphias
,,...Fields said, adding that ride-sharing would make more efficient use of
vehicles, with less time wasted for people and less pollution.''

If he would really care about pollution he would make sure that these shared
cars are electric.

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tbihl
I think you'd do the self-driving market a disservice by bundling it with
expensive range-limiting technology. If both are positive changes in their own
right, then they're better off keeping them available separate for maximum
adoption.

That's even more so the case with self-driving cars, since their ideal use
cases (highways) are the least ideal use case for vehicles with short ranges.

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revelation
It's like a Shit Elon Says quote, only Ford doesn't have any sorts of track
record here whatsoever.

"Twenty launches a year, is not a crazy number at all. We expect that to occur
without any miracles."

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emp_zealoth
What in the name of anything are you on about? Ford has been doing cars for
how long?

