

There's a mini ice age coming, says man who beats weather experts - billswift
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/theres-a-mini-ice-age-coming-says-man-who-beats-weather-experts-20101221-1945a.html

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ceejayoz
There's a lot of "seems to beat" statements in this editorial. If he's beating
them with any sort of statistical significance, it should be pretty easy to
demonstrate.

edit: His Wikipedia page paints a different story.

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piers_Corbyn>

> Following criticism of Weather Action's forecasts in The Times and The
> Guardian, in particular from journalist Paul Simons, Piers Corbyn banned the
> use of any extracts of them in any articles unless they were approved by
> Corbyn. In addition the above newspapers and any publication which carried
> articles by Paul Simons were also explicitly forbidden from quoting them.

~~~
dansingerman
Sadly, "statistical significance" is a concept you will very rarely hear of in
mainstream newspapers.

Hyperbole and sensationalism rule there.

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ojbyrne
This is actually one of the potential scenarios predicted by global warming
theorists - namely the shutting down of the gulf stream, resulting in European
weather changing rapidly to what would be expected at their high latitudes:

[http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=12455&tid=282&cid=10...](http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=12455&tid=282&cid=10046)

~~~
Retric
There was even a reasonably high budget movie made about it, _The Day After
Tomorrow_ , not that it showed anything approaching a realistic depiction of
the results of that shutdown.

~~~
billswift
The weather effects in _The Day After Tomorrow_ were ripped off from the 1979
novel _The Sixth Winter_ by Douglas Orgill and John Gribbin. Specifically, the
super-cold storm centers were an "expanded for video" version of the "Ice
Dancer" storms from the novel; they are unique enough in my rather extensive
reading that I noticed the similarity immediately. (For that matter, the same
director's later movie, _2012_ , borrowed rather strongly from Don Pendleton's
1969 novel _Cataclysm_ , though from the credits that may have been
indirectly.)

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joh6nn
Why should we believe a guy who beats weather experts? Violence is no
indicator of trustworthiness.

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marknutter
Is it just me or could this article have been just as effective as 3
sentences?

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jsharpe
The connection between his successful prediction of current weather and his
attempted predictions of global weather patterns 25 years out seems unfounded
(at least in the article). His technique of comparing the Sun's behaviour with
previous years might work for current weather, but just because that may be
successful doesn't mean that he can be trusted when making a prediction
completely outside that particular area.

The difference between having a successful method for predicting this month's
weather is predicting this century's weather is ridiculously huge.

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arethuza
I saw this link on a Scottish skiing site - it predicts 50 years of severe
winters for the UK and Europe based on solar activity:

[http://www.reading.ac.uk/about/newsandevents/releases/pr3256...](http://www.reading.ac.uk/about/newsandevents/releases/pr325639.aspx)

------
J3L2404
See also:

The Triple Crown of Global Cooling: More Volcanic Activity, Lower Solar Output
and La Nina

[http://www.examiner.com/seminole-county-environmental-
news-i...](http://www.examiner.com/seminole-county-environmental-news-in-
orlando/triple-crown-of-global-cooling-could-pose-serious-threat-to-humanity)

------
maeon3
Global warming? Ice Age? I'm so confused. Is the world going to get warmer or
colder? It's as if someone is trying to scare me out of my money so they can
get rich! oh snap!

~~~
chrisbennet
The theory: Warming -> artic ice melts -> reduces salinity of north atlantic
-> stops "atlantic conveyer" (which bring warm water from southern hemisphere)
-> mini ice age for Europe at least.

"The latest climate models predict the overturning circulation will slow down
as greenhouse gases warm the planet and melting ice adds freshwater to the
ocean. "Warm, freshwater is lighter and sinks less readily than cold, salty
water," Willis explained.

For now, however, there are no signs of a slowdown in the circulation. "The
changes we're seeing in overturning strength are probably part of a natural
cycle," said Willis. "The slight increase in overturning since 1993 coincides
with a decades-long natural pattern of Atlantic heating and cooling." "
[http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/atlantic20100325.h...](http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/atlantic20100325.html)

