
The Mobile Downturn - arnauddri
http://avc.com/2014/04/the-mobile-downturn/
======
bambax
> _the smartphone emerging as the platform of choice vs the desktop browser_

This is repeated from blog to blog but is it really true?

Smartphones outsell desktops because you change phones every 18 months while a
desktop will last maybe a decade or more; but do people really _prefer_ to use
their phone if they have a choice?

It would seem to me people who use a phone most of the time are people who
don't have easy access to a desktop: young people, or people who don't have a
job or whose job keeps them away from a desk (lucky them!)

When I'm around people who use a smartphone, I never see them engaged in
anything more complex than listening to music, texting, or playing some super-
simple game such as CandyCrush; they're never "browsing" anything, searching,
writing, composing, etc.

So if you're doing social or communications, sure, mobile first makes a lot of
sense, but how about other domains?

Do people use Github from mobile platforms? The Github app for Android
apparently has "100,000+ downloads", which doesn't seem like a lot?

It would be interesting to know the numbers for Github (for example), of
mobile vs. desktop usage.

~~~
smacktoward
_> When I'm around people who use a smartphone, I never see them engaged in
anything more complex than listening to music, texting, or playing some super-
simple game such as CandyCrush; they're never "browsing" anything, searching,
writing, composing, etc._

The thing is, for the vast majority of people that's all they were doing with
their PCs anyway. They weren't composing librettos, they were just checking
email and playing Farmville. So to them it doesn't feel like they've lost
anything.

~~~
jarrett
That rings true, yet casual users are not the only profitable market for
software. Not by a long shot. Look at companies like Microsoft, Autodesk, and
Adobe. They do very well selling professional software--software that's never
going to translate well to a phone-sized screen.

~~~
trhway
>software that's never going to translate well to a phone-sized screen.

an here is the next multi-billion of dollars :)

------
Spearchucker
He lists the following as big innovations over the last 20 years:

TCP/IP, HTTP, the browser, search, social, mobile, and blockchains.

I know that it's got something to do with Bitcoin, but have no idea what a
blockchain is. Wikipedia only references it in a link to blockchain.info,
which talks about blocks but not blockchains. Nobody I've asked can explain it
to me either.

If it's such a massive innovation (is it?), what is it, and why isn't it easy
to discover what it is?

~~~
czr80
From:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#Block_chain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#Block_chain)

"Integral to Bitcoin is a sequential record of all transactions known as the
block chain. There is only one block chain, and it records bitcoin ownership
both present and at all points in the past. By keeping a record of all
transactions, the block chain mitigates double-spending, a core design
challenge of digital currency. Approximately every ten minutes a new bundle of
transactions, called a block, is added to the block chain."

If you need a more in depth explanation, which also covers how this relates to
a famous problem in distributed systems (the Byzantine Generals Problem), see:
[http://expectedpayoff.com/blog/2013/03/22/bitcoin-and-the-
by...](http://expectedpayoff.com/blog/2013/03/22/bitcoin-and-the-byzantine-
generals-problem/)

~~~
rst
Some further context:

Computers all over the world are competing to extend the block chain by
solving a problem involving cryptographic hashes. The reward for solving the
problem is that a wallet controlled by the machine that does it can claim a
Bitcoin reward. The reward is currently, I believe, 25btc --- but it's
scheduled to drop over time; eventually to zero, at which point, miners will
have to be compensated by claiming transaction fees.

The upshot is that Bitcoin has a system for maintaining a single, global log
which is consistent across all connected Bitcoin clients. And while Bitcoin
itself uses this as a transaction ledger, there are plenty of other things you
might want to use this construct for once you have it. Namecoin, for instance,
uses a Bitcoin-like block chain to manage a DNS-like naming scheme.

(There are some weaknesses to the design: most notably, if a single party has
more than half the mining compute capacity, they're able to pull off all sorts
of chicanery against the community as a whole...)

------
fredgrott
He missed something..

Let me explain, what are big networks buying? Think Yahoo, Facebook, Google,
MS, etc..

The mobile app now represents user data to buy...and that is what we are
seeing in some of the acquirehires buying sprees is that the mobile app is
kept alive after the buyout because the firm doing the buying is buying user
data.

Thus we still will see some $1B or more home runs if we know and understand
what they are buying

~~~
paulbaumgart
User data is useful for showing ads that convert well, but the fundamental
unit of value in consumer apps isn't _data_ , it's _attention_.

------
arnauddri
We surely reach a more mature phase in the 'mobile apps' market but I believe
products will gain in quality in the future and that there are still some
opportunities to be seized: \- there was a tremendous amount of apps released
over the last few years, it is no wonder that competition is getting fierce:
products will have to adapt in terms of quality with better and more curated
contents. \- there is still a lot of room for innovation in re-engagement
([http://tomtunguz.com/mobile-reengagement/](http://tomtunguz.com/mobile-
reengagement/)), deeplinks (www.urx.com) are a very good start

~~~
scholia
Aside from the fact that most apps are rubbish, the real problem is the move
from the open, free, creative web to heavily-censored walled gardens
controlled by giant corporations. Also, apps completely invade your privacy.

------
programminggeek
I really don't think the block chain is the next platform or even that
interesting. What exactly am I missing?

