
The Prophecies of Q - WillDaSilva
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/06/qanon-nothing-can-stop-what-is-coming/610567/
======
tashi
Wait, Q started with a clear and verifiable prediction that a thing was about
to happen very soon, and then that thing 100% did not happen? And then it grew
from there? I thought I understood how the scam of fortune-telling worked, but
apparently I do not!

~~~
stillbourne
Not the first time a religion was started on the basis of a prophecy that
failed to deliver. A spin off of the Millerite Church predicted the end or the
world in 1844. The fact that it did not come to pass, a non event that later
became known as the Great Dissapointment, had many consequences including the
founding of the 7th Day Adventist church.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millerism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millerism)

QAnon is absolutely a cult derived from the ideals of Christian spiritual
warfare, apocalypticism, and associated eschatology.

The last time it was this bad was during the daycare panics of the 80's and
90's a movement I myself was a victim of.

~~~
betterunix2
+1

As soon as I heard the stuff about satanic rituals and drinking babies' blood
I immediately thought of the McMartin trial. Sorry to hear you were caught up
in the SRA mass hysteria, hope it is not still affecting your life.

~~~
stillbourne
Sadly its had a very profound effect on my life. From external appearances I
am a successful individual. On the inside, I am a depressed, anxious mess and
have trust issues with relationships.

------
verylittlemeat
The real hilarious conspiracy is how the media latches onto these troll
communities with breathless reporting. One of the founding beliefs of the
"movement" is that birds aren't real, they're government drones.

I can't wait until The New Yorker is telling me about how a new dangerous cult
is worshiping meme magic and praising at the altar of Kek. Honestly I wouldn't
be surprised if that's already happened.

It reminds me of when the NYTimes caught wind of the NPC meme* and their
initial reporting was along the lines of "ARE THESE RUSSIAN BOTS? IS OUR
DEMOCRACY BEING ATTACKED?." No you out of touch ivory tower fools, it's kids
in their 20s with too much time on their hands who love the attention you give
them.

As a side note, I know someone who fell deep into the gamergate hole as it was
happening and then realized how toxic it was and did a complete 180. Now they
spend all their time arguing with conspiracy theorists on the internet about
how their logic is faulty. There's a certain type of person that is
susceptible to this kind of stuff in general, for or against.

*[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/16/us/politics/npc-twitter-b...](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/16/us/politics/npc-twitter-ban.html)

~~~
MrDresden
My sentiment as well. This was an overly too deep a dive into an otherwise
uninteresting subgroup. An article 8th its length would have sufficed.

~~~
akhilcacharya
Its important because there's at least 1 QAnon supporter that's going to be
walking the halls of congress next year.

~~~
MrDresden
And the US seems to have a supporter already sitting in the oval office.

Frankly this group is not interesting. It is just another group of conspiracy
theorists that are spewing out a even more ill defined and crazy theory than
most have before.

What would be more interesting to look into is why they are getting traction
with people that previously were seemingly well informed ([n=1] the man in the
article that had watched CNN for years before switching). That is more
important. Why is it happening more and more that people get sucked into these
'obviously' lunatic groups and beliefs, and what can be done to make sure it
doesn't happen.

Deep diving into the nitty gritty of the posting history of this Q person was
way too much detail that did little to nothing for the article in my opinion.

------
0DHm2CxO7Lb3
I have no reason to believe these Q conspiracies but I understand why people
believe them, when we know about all the past shady activities like
COINTELPRO, MKUltra, WMDs in Iraq, all the involvement South America, NSA
spying, etc.

~~~
Barrin92
your bar is pretty low if you think the fact that actual conspiracies exist
justifies engaging in believing arbitrary conspiracy theories.

This is akin to believing that all women cheat just because it actually
happens to be the case that you met one that actually did, or thinking all
Jewish people are trying to get your money because you were once defrauded by
one.

The problem with paranoid mindsets is not that they're always incorrect, it's
that they're pathological in their structure.

~~~
briefcomment
So what, we should disbelieve all conspiracy theories by default? In the rare
case it happens to be true, it'll probably be too late to act upon, just like
COINTELPRO and MKULTRA.

We can assign the possibility of Q being true without actually taking a side
and acting on it. I can say "this is both compelling and unlikely to be true,
but as I long as I don't have to act on it, it doesn't matter if I believe in
it or not". We can let the evidence over time build a stronger case for it or
destroy it.

The only reason I can see not to do that is if it introduces unacceptable
consequences in the meantime, as the article is suggesting, but it seems like
the reporting against it is ridiculously cherry picked and disingenuous.
There's probably a much stronger case for stopping BLM as a organization at
the moment, but I don't think I've seen an Atlantic article suggesting that.

For the time being, Q seems like a harmless movement. It would be a red flag
if Q denounced a group of people without justification, but Q has been pretty
specific about the things and people it denounces, and if things go according
to Q's plan the people it's denouncing are going to have their chance in court
.

~~~
drdeca
Our prior probability for most conspiracy theories should be low, and we
should update our probabilities in an approximately Bayesian way.

~~~
briefcomment
The point of my first post was to say we don't have to assign any
probabilities at the moment.

I'm just viewing it as compelling entertainment. Outside of this thread, I
haven't mentioned it to anyone. It's probably premature to unwaveringly
denounce or support it. When we have to actually act on it, or if it causes
actual crime in the real world, that's when it helps if you take a stand.

~~~
drdeca
If knowing for certain one way or the other would influence one’s choices, a
truly rational agent (which humans only approximate) must always at least
implicitly assign a probability.

Some people are appealing to people who believe it in their political
campaigns. I think this is sufficient to make it relevant.

------
Apocryphon
Q has become somewhat of a global phenomenon at this point:

[https://twitter.com/kos_data/status/1299746985554173952](https://twitter.com/kos_data/status/1299746985554173952)

------
meekmind
The public will usually not have to tools, expertise, or mindset to perform
more technical kinds of intelligence gathering/sharing. The public is,
therefore, generally limited to relying on human intelligence operations like
Q.

However, human intelligence has consistency and credibility problems which
make it easier to attack and undermine. The problems are magnified by
anonymity and the resulting lack of accountability.

I am not sure how to solve those problems. The Q faithful should remember the
inherent instability of that type of operation and work to solve it, not
attack anyone who is in any way critical of it.

------
me_me_me
So this is not Star Trek related?

Oh, you sweat summer child me.

------
epistasis
This type of fractured epistemology, where subgroups derive truth from truly
weird conspiracy theories, while other groups in society continue with a
connection to reality, is how a society falls apart, or becomes easily prayed
upon by dictators or outside forces.

When people no longer have any idea about what could be true, they have to
trust, usually a strong-man leader. This is how Putin maintains such control
of his country. It's how he spread discord in eastern Ukraine, with wild
stories about "they want to kill and eat your children." You hear Lukashenko
say the same sorts of things as he struggles to keep power in Belarus (the
villain being NATO forces...)

I beg of everybody on HN in the US: if you have family that starts to fall
into these conspiracy theories, hold on to your relationship with them and try
with all your night to bring them back to reality. We are at a scary stage
with a pandemic and economic disaster, and many people are quite vulnerable to
the false sense of order that these conspiracy theories provide. I think that
familial connections might be one of the only things stronger than the strange
pull of these conspiracy theories.

~~~
ehvatum
The situation in the US is exceptional. To put it mildly, US big corporate
media would prefer that the current government executive be someone else, and
their reporting is guided by that animus.

This creates an appetite for alternative sources of information, even if those
sources are of very low quality.

------
trasz
So, how is it different from other bs those folks used to believe in?

------
im3w1l
What scares me about Q is what the narrative enables. If Trump overthrew the
institutions of democracy, and had his enemies killed and jailed, then all Q
would need to do is whisper is that the cabal has been defeated, and all the
Q-adherents would cheer.

~~~
briefcomment
I don't think there are enough of them to outweigh the rule of law. I would
drop Q in an instant if it operated outside of the courts.

------
ufmace
I'm starting to think that the media's breathless anti-Q reporting is more
dangerous than QAnon itself.

Okay Q is a wacky conspiracy theory. What's the headline real-world event here
though? Some kid walked into a pizza joint with a rifle. That's pretty much
it. He didn't shoot anyone, didn't explicitly threaten anyone, didn't break
anything. But that makes this cult a massive danger?

Meanwhile, hundreds of nationwide riots have been going on for months, burning
down thousands of businesses, destroying livelihoods, but don't you dare even
question the legitimacy of that.

~~~
Fjolsvith
> Okay Q is a wacky conspiracy theory. What's the headline real-world event
> here though? Some kid walked into a pizza joint with a rifle. That's pretty
> much it. He didn't shoot anyone, didn't explicitly threaten anyone, didn't
> break anything. But that makes this cult a massive danger?

People are red-pilling. Once they are awake, they cannot be put back asleep.
This is what makes this cult dangerous.

And its not just conservative America that's red-pilling:

[https://www.mesabitribune.com/news/6-greater-minnesota-
mayor...](https://www.mesabitribune.com/news/6-greater-minnesota-mayors-
endorse-trump-pence/article_7725e452-e96a-11ea-914e-e35a54938cf8.html)

[https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4852367/user-clip-democrat-
ca...](https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4852367/user-clip-democrat-call)

~~~
shadowgovt
Red pills are what they hand out in cults when Kool-Aid is too expensive.

When reality contradicts beliefs, the mind would rather adjust its filters on
reality than adjust its beliefs. I've spent enough time chatting with flat-
Earthers to watch the process in action.

~~~
Fjolsvith
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24180668](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24180668)

People are leaving the Democrat Party.

~~~
shadowgovt
Gallup numbers don't really bear out that hypothesis.
[https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-
affiliation.aspx](https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx)

The plurality of Americans declare themselves independents, but there are more
people affiliated to either major party than neither.

------
blindm
Q is probably infiltrated by secret CIA operatives and will probably be
dismantled soon, and will take on a new guise. Anyone remember the hacktivist
group Anonymous in their heyday? Completely infiltrated and dismantled, by who
knows? CIA?

~~~
creato
I doubt Anonymous was "dismantled" by anyone. Groups like this just aren't
stable. People get bored.

~~~
im3w1l
This was part of the story
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LulzSec](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LulzSec)

------
skindoe
Notice how only 1 post out of thousands by the so called Q we're shown in the
making this article?

Notice how immediately they point to one case of violence which was denounced
by Q. Seems like an attempt to emotionally connect Q with a single nutjob.

Do you think it would be fair to write articles about everyone based on the
actions of a single supporter with clear mental illness? Why the double
standard?

If what Q is saying is so dangerous then why not actually show that material
and debunk it directly?

Just like the podesta emails the content is always completely ignored because
the people writing these articles don't want you to be informed here. Ask
yourself why? What is their agenda here? Is it in your best interest?

Read the drops qmap.pub and think for yourself.

If you haven't read any of the drops how can anyone take your opinion
seriously on something you know nothing about?

~~~
ideals
Are you a believer in the Q contents?

Was there a defining a moment that made you believe in it, if you do?

I'm not going read drops or maps, I'm not even sure what that means and don't
plan to spend my weekend figuring that out, there's only so much time and we
have to pick and choose ya know, so if you could expand, please do.

~~~
greenie_beans
Look at their comment history. I’ve asked folks this question in other forums
and they never answer. But their comments always defend Q

~~~
Fjolsvith
If you announced you were QAnon, you'd probably be outed and end up fired,
maybe get death threats.

Its why the silent majority exists.

~~~
greenie_beans
QAnon is wayyyy too far out there for the silent majority...that’s just not a
fair comparison.

