
Show HN: A social platform to record and debate predictions of the future - tompec
https://www.predibly.com/
======
Emma_Goldman
The problem with this is that predictions should, ideally, be clearly
specified, offer a percentage estimate (0-100% likelihood), and have some
reliable method of validating the outcome.

The Good Judgement Project does all these things:
[https://www.gjopen.com/](https://www.gjopen.com/)

This website, on the other hand, seems to encourage none of these epistemic
virtues. It's people making more or less precise verbal predictions on twitter
and then assessing themselves.

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wiggler00m
Suggestion: require "skin in the game" ie. make predictors risk something of
value (with commensurate chance of gain if their prediction manifests).

This would likely increase prediction quality/accuracy.

~~~
unusximmortalis
Who will validate the predictions? Manual validation will not scale.

~~~
MRD85
Who will determine the odds of predictions?

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Y_Y
People can offer bets, those with differing views can take the bets. You can
even make a market with floating odds like BetFair used to.

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binaryorganic
My favorite prediction from a similar site:

[http://longbets.org/601/](http://longbets.org/601/)

Jeremy Keith bet that “The original URL for this prediction
(www.longbets.org/601) will no longer be available in eleven years.”

He looks set to lose, which is great news for him, honestly.

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tompec
Hi there, My friend Nathan and I recently launched Predibly.com: a social
platform to publicly share your predictions of the future and have interesting
conversations about them. Nathan had the idea last week, I build the MVP and
we'd love to know your thoughts!

~~~
anigbrowl
It's cool. Develop an abuse flagging policy early.

~~~
Y_Y
I predict this will be difficult.

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BeniBoy
A relevant episode of EconTalk[1]. If I remember correctly, Philip Tetlock is
running a continuous betting project to try to determine what characterize
good forecasters.

[1]:[https://www.econtalk.org/philip-tetlock-on-
superforecasting/...](https://www.econtalk.org/philip-tetlock-on-
superforecasting/?highlight=\[%22tetlock%22,%22on%22,%22superforecasting%22,%22%22\])

~~~
paulgb
Direct link to the project: [https://www.gjopen.com/](https://www.gjopen.com/)

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jobigoud
I like it! Love that you can sort by time of prediction or by time of
post/popularity. Sort by "controversial" could be nice.

As soon as you have more than a dozen you will need tags or category. Tech,
science, politics, sports... will cater to vastly different people and foster
different discussions.

I don't like the fact that Twitter is required to sign up.

~~~
tompec
Glad you like the idea! Categories are on our list of features to implement.
We're thinking about hashtags like Twitter does. Yeah, Signup with Twitter was
mostly to accelerate the development time but an email signup will be
introduced in the future as we're aware that some people prefer this way.

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mgraczyk
I have a similar site I've been working on, although ours is more focused on
betting and quantifying accuracy. It's
[https://hunches.app](https://hunches.app)

~~~
paulgb
Note for US users, this is buried in the TOS:

> If the User is a U.S. Person, User represents that user is an accredited
> investor

[https://hunches.app/terms-of-service](https://hunches.app/terms-of-service)

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zbuf
Nice idea! In case you haven't seen it, this site uses a similar concept:

[http://longbets.org/](http://longbets.org/)

~~~
unusximmortalis
Jeff (AWS) funded this one.

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danielscrubs
I really like the design!

I would like a filter for controversial, having people add: The earth will
still exist in 2020, is not so interesting.

I normally don't like leaderboards, but in this case, it would be nice if and
only if it was weighted by how controversial the prediction is.

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black_puppydog
Nobody suggest having a "prediction reputation" that keeps track of the
quality of people's predictions? Like, after the even should have taken place,
open it up for up/down votes or such?

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johnchristopher
Is there an API? Could I build a betting site around it?

~~~
tompec
Not yet sorry :) Maybe one day!

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lettergram
If you haven’t seen it, I recommend predictionbook.com.

Honestly, not as nice as what was shared from a UI perspective. However, the
user experience on predictionbook.com appears better.

[https://predictionbook.com/](https://predictionbook.com/)

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antpls
Interesting, but there is no legal disclaimer, about page, corporation, cookie
usage information, etc

Does that mean you don't log in anyway any information about visitor, and that
you share all gathered information by contributors with the public ? For
example, where can I download the whole database of prediction, with votes,
comments and history ?

If I can't, I'm assuming this is not fully public and you potentially use my
data as a visitor and/or contributor to make money, and you therefore need a
legal entity to represent the website.

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fiatjaf
C'mon, it's a side project. Let the person develop some functionality before
expecting him to add all this useless legal mumbo-jumbo.

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antpls
Sorry, but I care about my rights, even if you are only experimenting ideas.

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buzzerbetrayed
It isn’t your “right” to demand that he follows your countries local laws,
especially if he isn’t from your country.

He is well within his right to make the website exactly how it is, and you are
well within your rights not to visit it.

~~~
antpls
True, and I made my decision. I only wanted to warn about it to other people
who might browse here. The intent of the website is not clear.

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hestefisk
Nice. Imagine with a BTC betting api on top.

~~~
foundart
There’s such a system built on Ethereum:
[https://www.augur.net/](https://www.augur.net/)

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chdaniel
How about infinite scroll?

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azimovsky
Nice design.

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chobeat
I can't wait for all the STEMlords and edgy kids from r/futurology to blabber
about Elon bringing them to Mars.

