
H-1B reduced computer programmer employment by up to 11%, study finds - Jerry2
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/h-1b-reduced-computer-programmer-employment-by-up-to-11-study-finds-2017-02-13
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mywittyname
The study goes from 1994 to 2001, so during the aftermath of the dot-com bust.

That's like studying housing data from 2004 to 2011 and drawing the conclusion
that a reduction in the number of construction workers in 2004 would have
reduced housing price losses in 2011. It might be correct, but it's ignoring
some pretty important externalities.

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coralreef
I don't really understand.

 __" There would have been up to 11% more computer science jobs at wages up to
5% higher" __

How would the industry have created 11% _more_ jobs? Are foreigners so
efficient that they can handle multiple job roles?

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suchire
From the abstract of the paper itself: "In the absence of immigration, wages
for US computer scientists would have been 2.6% to 5.1% higher and employment
in computer science for US workers would have been 6.1% to 10.8% higher in
2001".

So focusing specifically on US workers, not immigrants.

~~~
coralreef
So basically if there was no visa system employing X amount of foreigners,
then X amount of US workers would have been employed. Seems obvious enough.

Anyone know what the unemployment rate for computer science workers is? Is
there 6.1% to 10.8% available and waiting?

~~~
rtpg
Comp Sci is the domain with the least unemployment out of any major sector of
employment. Basically at full employment levels (not just the US, but
worldwide).

Or at least, that was the case a couple years back.

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mavelikara
This paper is a work in progress, with the following abstract:

    
    
      Over the 1990s, the share of foreigners entering the US high-skill workforce 
      grew rapidly. This migration potentially had a significant effect on US workers, 
      consumers and firms. To study these effects, we construct a general equilibrium 
      model of the US economy and calibrate it using data from 1994 to 2001. Built into 
      the model are positive effects high skilled immigrants have on innovation. 
      Counterfactual simulations based on our model suggest that immigration increased the
      overall welfare of US natives, and had significant distributional consequences. In 
      the absence of immigration, wages for US computer scientists would have been 2.6% 
      to 5.1% higher and employment in computer science for US workers would have been 
      6.1% to 10.8% higher in 2001. On the other hand, complements in production benefited
      substantially from immigration, and immigration also lowered prices and raised the 
      output of IT goods by between 1.9% and 2.5%, thus benefiting consumers. Finally, 
      firms in the IT sector also earned substantially higher profits due to immigration.

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afinlayson
that those H1bs didn't work outside the US, causing increased spending on
food, and housing, and overall supporting American economy.

In a lot of cases H1bs could work in their home country, at a much lower wage
and build that countries economy instead.

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euyyn
H1-B increased my computer programmer employment by 100%.

