
Labor Costs Will Explode After the Pandemic. Here's How - zt
https://www.inc.com/geoffrey-james/labor-costs-will-explode-after-pandemic-here%C2%B9s-how.html
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RcouF1uZ4gsC
> While that might turn out to be true short-term, it ignores the lesson of
> history, which is that pandemics have always resulted in labor unrest--often
> to the point of armed insurrection.

The pandemics (except for the 1918 flu) listed actually caused demographic
collapse. It took over a hundred years for the populations to recover. I don’t
think anyone thinks COVID-19 will cause anything like that. In addition, those
pandemics killed a lot of young, previously healthy people, whereas with
COVID-19, the mortality rate among young, previously healthy people is really
low.

These pandemics in the past caused a labor shortage by killing a large
percentage of people in their prime. Again with the exception of 1918, the
economy of the day depended heavily on manual labor, hence the labor shortage
was felt more acutely. This is not the case now.

I think the article is making superficial comparisons to reach a conclusion
that is unwarranted.

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giantg2
I'm not sure if I would agree or disagree with the conclusion. I could see it
going either way.

I do agree with you that the examples the author gives do not directly support
the conclusion.

The first two examples were essentially about taxation. Sure, the reason taxes
went up was because people died and the rulers expected the same output, but
that was a choice by greedy leaders forced upon people (in a power structure
quite different from ours no less).

The third example has little to do with the pandemic. I would argue (just as
vaguely as the author has on their point) that the end of the war and other
catalysts simulated the economy into the roaring twenties. That stimulated
economy makes employers more likely to improve working conditions either
because they are more financially viable or there is more demand for labor
which gives laborers more power in negotiating.

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csense
The problem with unionizing and demanding better wages is that workers who do
it will be replaced with cheaper alternatives, namely, overseas workers or
robots.

People on the street recognize this, at least the overseas workers part. It's
a big reason why Trump was elected.

Biden seems to have figured it out; he recently released a quite hawkish
political ad accusing _Trump_ of being too pro-China.

Actually it's good if labor costs explode: That means ordinary people are
earning more, and a robust middle class is essential for a healthy society. It
might have painful consequences for quarterly P&L, but if the plebs can afford
a nice middle class lifestyle, they're unlikely to storm the mansions with
torches and pitchforks.

If you own a company, you should read "exploding labor costs" as "pitchfork
insurance."

