
Steve Jobs to Obama: “You’re headed for a one-term presidency” - mtgred
http://9to5mac.com/2011/10/20/jobs-to-obama-youre-headed-for-a-one-term-presidency-because-the-us-cant-build-factories-and-us
======
protomyth
An 11 month school year would be a nightmare and screw up summer activities.
Plus, the misalignment of HS and College schedules will hurt advanced
students. School going to 6pm in the northland is a non-starter and dangerous.

(getting a little sick of the down votes without comment)

~~~
AlexandrB
Fair enough on the 6pm thing. However, there seems to be evidence [1] that the
typical 2 month summer break is hurting student performance - especially for
poorer students whose parents can't afford to put them into enrichment
activities in the summer. How, exactly, would 11 month school years be a
nightmare? Misalignment already exists - Colleges get 4 months off, don't
they?

I also recall seeing a talk about this exact topic, but I can't seem to find
it at the moment.

[1]
[http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/parenting/education/lear...](http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/parenting/education/learning/students-
in-year-round-schools-do-better-study-shows/article1663859/)

~~~
Zakharov
Here in Australia kids get 6 weeks off in summer, plus 2 weeks in autumn,
winter, and spring. This seems much more sensible than getting everything off
over the summer.

~~~
mlok
Here in France kids get 2 months off in summer, plus 1 week in autumn, 2 weeks
for Christmas, 2 weeks late winter, 2 weeks in spring. The best of both worlds
from the kids point of view.

------
hammock
On the subject of _"You’re headed for a one-term presidency because the US
can’t build factories"_ :

[http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/car-company-us-loan-builds-
car...](http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/car-company-us-loan-builds-cars-
finland/story?id=14770875)

With the approval of the Obama administration, an electric car company that
received a $529 million federal government stimulus loan guarantee is
assembling its first line of cars in Finland, saying it could not find a
facility in the United States capable of doing the work.

"There was no contract manufacturer in the U.S. that could actually produce
our vehicle," the car company's founder and namesake told ABC News. "They
don't exist here."

~~~
protomyth
It would seem that for $529 million they could build one. Isn't Tesla building
cars here?

~~~
Duff
Money is one issue, time is another.

In most US jurisdictions, dozens of entities have the ability to say "no" to a
development project. In states that are actively hostile to business, like New
York or California, there may be hundreds of people or groups that can slow
down projects.

Examples: Local Zoning Board; Whomever controls permits for running utilities;
State/local environmental boards (Lots and lots of $$$ permits); Land
speculators ("building a factory in this industrial park will ruin the views
from XXX piece of land that we own"); Historical preservation maniacs. ("That
collapsing house was was rented by Richard Nixon's maid"); Local politicians
("Oh, you need to build a 200,000 square foot building? Our master plan was
modified last week -- buildings are capped at 150,000 square feet.); Local
politicians in neighboring municipalities. ("Your project will generate too
much traffic"); Local real property tax boards.; State politicians; Local
construction unions. (Who will sabotage your project if you don't play
along.); State Labor Departments, acting as agents for the construction
unions.; Environmental pressure groups. ("Your stormwater mitigation strategy
is insufficient, you're getting sued"); Federal regulators.

In New York, things are so bad that any significant project is essentially
done under the aegis of the state government, usually via a public authority.
The government provides funding, and can cut through some of the red tape,
since the State is not subject to local zoning law. But there are usually
strings attached, and the process takes years.

In China or Brazil, you basically partner with a connected local, and build
your factory in a few months.

~~~
drzaiusapelord
>n states that are actively hostile to business, like New York or California

If you think things are easier in Finland, then you're wrong. Turns out this
is a specific case looking for a specific type of factory that could make a
specific car on a specific contract. Your right-wing screed is not as
convincing as you think it is. I'm not even going to point out how huge NY and
Cali economies are.

>n China or Brazil, you basically partner with a connected local, and build
your factory in a few months.

Replace "regulatory bullshit" with just as much bullshit except involving
bribes, shakedowns, and forced contributions to political parties and dealing
with a level of corruption and labor conditions that are staggeringly awful
and depressing. My gf does work with BRIC economies all the time and the
lesson I want to somehow teach you is that civilization and
labor/environmental protections are worth it. They are waaaay worth it. I'm
afraid people like you purposely refuse to learn this basic lesson and are
otherwise spoiled by the Western privilege you refuse to share.

~~~
Duff
You've declared me a right-wing nut and then stuff words in my mouth. Thanks.

I'm not an expert in California, but I happen to live in Upstate NY and pay
careful attention to what is (or isn't) going on. The size of the New York
economy is an illusion in many ways; New York lives and dies on the back of a
single industry -- Finance. That wasn't true 30-40 years ago. The valleys and
lakefront between Buffalo and Albany were industrial powerhouses well into the
70s. In the early 20th century, Buffalo was one of the nations great cities,
today, it's more like Detroit.

I'd also suggest that you read about the major economic development project
going on in New York right now, the construction of a multi-billion dollar
chip fab for Global Foundries just outside of Saratoga Springs, NY. Total cost
of that project is something like $7 billion, with just under $3 billion being
provided by the State of New York under various guises. That's what it takes
to do manufacturing in the US today -- even with high-end manufacturing which
requires extremely skilled labor.

------
9999
>keep schools open until 6

Sounds great, how do you fund it?

>keep school in session 11 months out of the year

Ditto.

>let principals hire/fire based on merit

Seems legit, do we really have to BREAK the unions to do that? The teacher
unions have many legitimate reasons for their existence regardless of some of
their negative attributes.

>relax regulations on building factories

Is that really what's holding manufacturing back here? It's not the cost of
labor and providing benefits to workers? I can see how the additional costs of
creating factories here might make it slightly harder to manufacture things in
the U.S., but I find it highly dubious that Apple would suddenly start
manufacturing its machines here even if all zoning/health/environmental laws
were scrapped.

>turning Jobs down on making campaign ads

Crazy. Seriously. David Axelrod is a schmuck.

~~~
jerf
"Is that really what's holding manufacturing back here?"

While I also have various ideological preconceptions about the source of the
economic problems in the US and elsewhere, I would observe that when someone
like the CEO of Apple is expressing an opinion about what makes a factory
easier to open in China than in the US, someone who has actually been the guy-
who-can-say-yes to actual factories for which that decision was actually made,
it's probably worth listening to that opinion. Even if you can somehow prove
he's objectively wrong on the merits, his perception would still be a useful
data point.

On the other hand I wouldn't expect any particular insight into our school
problems from him, beyond what any reasonably skilled businessman could
present.

~~~
rayiner
Jobs was a businessman, not an economist.

There is a good reason regulation makes it more expensive to open factories in
the US: our regulations force companies to internalize the negative
externalities their businesses create. China effectively subsidizes industry
by forcing its citizens to bear the costs of pollution, injuries, etc,
inherent in such activities. US regulation forces companies to bear some of
these costs (hardly all of them).

In its retrospective study on the 1970 Clean Air Act, the EPA estimated that
the benefit of pollution control over the 20 year period was on the order of
$22 trillion. Relative to the "so-called 'no-control' case, an additional
205,000 Americans would have died prematurely and millions more would have
suffered illnesses ranging from mild respiratory symptoms to heart disease,
chronic bronchitis, asthma attacks, and other severe respiratory problems...
the lack of Clean Air Act controls on the use of leaded gasoline would have
resulted in major increases in child IQ loss and adult hypertension, heart
disease, and stroke." Meanwhile, "the actual costs of achieving the pollution
reductions observed over the 20 year period were $523 billion, a small
fraction of the estimated monetary benefits."

What's good for business isn't necessarily good for the economy. The things
that businessmen push for: deregulation, limitations on tort liability, etc,
create more in costs to society then they create in benefits to businesses.
Indeed, our measurements of things like GDP are so fundamentally flawed that
they encourage politicians to adopt such measures. If a factory's poisonous
emissions causes you to have lung problems, that doesn't count against GDP,
but when you seek medical attention for those problems GDP goes up!

~~~
anamax
> In its retrospective study on the 1970 Clean Air Act, the EPA estimated that
> the benefit of pollution control over the 20 year period was on the order of
> $22 trillion.

$22T/20 years is over $1T/year. US GDP in 1990 was under $6T. US GDP in 1970
was just over $1T.

> the lack of Clean Air Act controls on the use of leaded gasoline would have
> resulted in major increases in child IQ loss

Oh really? Why would leaded gas in 1980 cause more problems than leaded gas in
1950?

> Meanwhile, "the actual costs of achieving the pollution reductions observed
> over the 20 year period were $523 billion, a small fraction of the estimated
> monetary benefits."

Just as the benefits are not limited to the money not spent on medical care,
the money spent on pollution controls are not the only costs.

~~~
smithian
GDP does not account for the externalities that the study took into account.

~~~
anamax
> GDP does not account for the externalities that the study took into account.

Externality estimates and valuations are notorious for reflecting the biases
of the estimators.

Estimates that are a large fraction of GDP are very suspicious.

Do you seriously believe that the clean air act "saved" 1/6th of the US
economy?

~~~
smithian
I hear what you are saying, but I think you're mixing units. Since the study
is accounting for things that are not accounted for in GDP, It doesn't seem to
make much sense to compare the dollar figure reached in terms of GDP. If GDP
devalues human health as part of its basic assumptions, an analysis that does
not devalue human health will come to different numbers. It's almost a
tautology.

------
lambdasquirrel
"Conservative" or just gets shit done? Maybe the real reason why we don't get
shit done in this country is because we're so preoccupied with these worn-out
ideologies. What if Jobs was right? What if it's too damn hard to build
factories in America?

~~~
vacri
Worn-out ideologies? Pretty much everything that Jobs is credited with saying
in the article is a worn-out ideology.

Bust unions! Remove regulations and cut workers' rates! Government needs to be
more business-friendly! And what's more, I don't like the menu!

Hardly fresh thinking, let alone innovative and non-ideological.

~~~
rick888
When many regulations and unions that won't fire bad teachers are the norm,
it's fresh thinking.

------
mattparcher
Perhaps most relevant to the current United States political climate:

 _Steve Jobs was infuriated by “[Obama’s] focus on the reasons that things
can't get done.”_

------
genieyclo
I really hate all these politics links polluting the frontpage lately. If I
could flag again, I'd do so quietly and not comment, but this is a little
ridiculous.

Perhaps I need another long break from HN.

~~~
dolphenstein
This isn't a political post. It's a "Steve Jobs yada yada" post. :-)

------
larrik
Shouldn't have asked for Steve's opinion if you didn't _really_ want it.

~~~
vailripper
It doesn't say anything about how Obama reacted, besides continuing the
conversation with him. Who is to say he didn't appreciate the candor?

------
dennisgorelik
That's interesting to see that Jobs treated Obama like a peer.

~~~
cdwhite
Yes. For Jobs to treat Obama otherwise seems somehow anti-republican: the fact
that Obama is Jobs' peer---and indeed yours and mine---is, I think, a notion
deeply rooted in American political culture. Considering the possibility of
Jobs showing deference certainly raises my hackles. At the same time, it's
natural to be overawed by a man like Obama, with so much political authority
(and however much remains of the tremendous moral authority he had when
elected).

~~~
vacri
Jobs was one of the captains of US industry - who else should the head of
government turn to for specialist advice on business? If your head of
government _isn't_ talking to the captains of industry, then there's something
wrong - it's not just a US thing.

------
Pheter
_Jobs exhibited his notorious attention to detail, telling venture capitalist
John Doerr that the menu of shrimp, cod and lentil salad was "far too fancy"._

Attention to detail and a certain bluntness has been attributed as part of
Steve Jobs' immense success, but this come across as plain rude. It doesn't
matter if Jobs is right or not, it's bad etiquette to criticise another's work
in this context.

Of course, I am assuming that his opinion wasn't asked, and I know nothing of
the relationship that Jobs and Doerr shared.

------
zalew
hey people, do a spinoff <http://stevejobsoldquotesne.ws> and give hn a break.

------
DavidSJ
_Jobs proposed … that schools stay open until 6 p.m. and that they be open 11
months a year._

"He had walked several kilometres over pavements, and his varicose ulcer was
throbbing. This was the second time in three weeks that he had missed an
evening at the Community Centre: a rash act, since you could be certain that
the number of your attendances at the Centre was carefully checked. In
principle a Party member had no spare time, and was never alone except in bed.
It was assumed that when he was not working, eating, or sleeping he would be
taking part in some kind of communal recreation: to do anything that suggested
a taste for solitude, even to go for a walk by yourself, was always slightly
dangerous. There was a word for it in Newspeak: OWNLIFE, it was called,
meaning individualism and eccentricity."

------
jonmc12
Regarding China factory regulations vs US factory regulations, does anyone
have a good point of view regarding working conditions at Apple's factories in
Asia? ie, [http://www.tomshardware.com/news/hexyl-hydride-n-hexane-
pois...](http://www.tomshardware.com/news/hexyl-hydride-n-hexane-poison-
factory,12256.html)

------
ajays
Well, if staying in school longer (till 6pm, 11 months/year) is such a great
idea, why didn't he stay in Reed longer?

------
forgottenpaswrd
Wow, what Jobs really loved was getting in charge, a control freak. It became
the face in the 1984 wall telling everybody what to do.

If you want to send your children to boarding school so you don't have to
educate them, more power to you.

But if you want the state to become your nanny and top-down micromanaging how
children gets results I beg to differ, specially when the person that want to
control it is a dropout and risk taker but wants anybody else to get into
conformity.

------
badclient
What goes unstated is that Jobs' put his social beliefs above business. Obama
is far from the ideal candidate to support if you'd like unions abandoned. And
yet that is who Jobs' seemed to be rooting for.

------
badclient
Here's what I'm reading: Jobs, like many salesmen, tries to instill fear in
Obama then offers to help with his campaign

It's super sad that will never happen. It's crazy imagining what a Jobs final
product towards a political campaign may have looked like.

~~~
wuster
Re: what it would look like? I am guessing just like a typical Apple ad?

* white or blurred background, putting the focus on product or user * clean graphics and visuals * montage of products in use, in real situations * subtlely snarky towards the competition

