
Isaac Newton's prediction that the world would not end before 2060 (2015) - Hooke
http://www.openculture.com/2015/10/in-1704-isaac-newton-predicts-the-world-will-end-in-2060.html
======
Jun8
If you're interested in this topic, you should also have a look at this
article
([https://www.neh.gov/humanities/2011/januaryfebruary/feature/...](https://www.neh.gov/humanities/2011/januaryfebruary/feature/newton-
the-last-magician)) and Keynes' wonderful lecture on the topic. In fact Newton
was pre-Newtonian in terms of scientific rigor. You can perhaps say similar
things about most revolutionary scientists, i.e. rarely do they fully realize
the y have wrought.

I think Newton being the "Last Magician" fascinates/frustrates people because
currently we (think) that there is such a clear divide between scientists and
mubo-jumboists, the latter perceived to be rather idiotic. In fact, most
topics have pretty clear labels classifying them into one or the other:
diffraction - science, tarot - MJ, etc. How could Newton, the epitome of
reason and the greatest scientist ever lived, dabble in the latter? Of course,
the labels were not so clear at his time.

~~~
jerf
I recently encountered this video about an interesting possible reaction that
could have been done by alchemists that might explain where the idea of
turning lead to gold came from (in particular, wanting gold as an end product
is no surprise, but why _lead_ specifically as the source?):
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzsdORUPk48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzsdORUPk48)
It doesn't quite use period materials, for safety and convenience reasons, but
I was satisfied that the described reaction could have been done, with more
effort. And it does take "lead" and turn it into something that seems awfully
close to gold. If you don't have an atomic theory of matter and understand how
elements work, you know, I would submit that it's not even that "magical" of a
thought to think that you're so close and surely there's just one or two last
tweaks you can do to get there.

It's very easy to imagine that as being part of the inner mysteries of a
mystery religion: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greco-
Roman_mysteries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greco-Roman_mysteries)

Now turning lead into gold is pure 100% unmitigated magic, because we know a
lot more stuff. But if we didn't know that stuff, it would not be an obviously
magical belief.

~~~
copperx
I now worry that coming up with a cure for all cancers is a magical belief.

~~~
Babooster
Don't worry: there's no requirement for one single cure-all.

------
ChuckMcM
Complaints about the headline aside, it is the perfect sort of doomsday
prophecy story. It is far enough away that the people who pulled it out of
Newton's writing will be forgotten, its near enough that the reader could
imagine being alive at that time and wondering what would happen. Erich von
Däniken exploited this in his "Ancient Astronauts" stuff, predicting the
Mayan's called it with a 2012 extinction event (whoops :-).

Since you only get _one_ end of the world prophesy (when it passes you're a
crackpot and everyone who believed you now hates you intensely) you need to
pick it to land post retirement at least since you'll not have any credibility
afterward. Predicting '2060' (and yes I know Newton wrote no earlier than) as
the folks who have used Newton's works to date it, being a bit more than 40
years away will have all of these folks retired by then. My guess is they will
really try to milk it for all it is worth in the 2040's.

~~~
taprun
This idea was explored at the beginning of Ghostbutsters II when Venkman
interviewed someone who didn't leave enough time to print paperbacks of his
prophesy. One should always think about the economics of a doomsday before
committing to a specific date.

------
crispinb
If knowledge is, as one common philosophical notion goes, 'true, justified
belief', then Newton clearly 'knew' nothing about 2060 as he fell severely
short of justification.

It's a shame we can't be equally confident about the prediction also failing
the 'truth' aspect. Depending on what exactly one might mean by 'world', it's
uncertain to an uncomfortable degree that _our_ world won't end by 2060.

------
negamax
Wasn't something happening in 1999 and then in 2012? There's a Wikipedia page
on failed doomsday prophesies. Check it out.

~~~
jzymbaluk
Here's a link for the lazy:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dates_predicted_for_ap...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dates_predicted_for_apocalyptic_events)

------
danharaj
Reminds me of Kepler's Mysterium Cosmographicum:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mysterium_Cosmographicum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mysterium_Cosmographicum)

------
lurcio
O, so it's not going to be Sep 23, 2017 then.

From the Christian perspective, what Newton is referring to is less about the
world that's ending than what will be beginning.

------
tryingagainbro
In other words: Newton, brilliant of a lot of things, not so on many other
things. We need to accept that, as his attempts to produce gold and invest his
money show.

For the record, something very bad will happen by the third Sunday, of the
third month, of the 2033 year. Not necessarily on that day, but by then.

~~~
pan69
> as his attempts to produce gold and invest his money show.

Isn't that just called an "entrepreneur" these days?

~~~
tryingagainbro
On the gold thing maybe I was too harsh...shouldn't judge him because I read
Wikipedia some 300 later.

But, basically a great actor or scientist's opinion, outside his field,
shouldn't be given extra attention or credibility.

------
godelmachine
There seem to be some misgivings in the headline. Newton predicted the world
will certainly not end before 2060. So the headline should be, "In 1704, Isaac
Newton predicts the world will not end before 2060"

~~~
thecity2
Sure, but then I wouldn't have clicked.

~~~
surrey-fringe
Please don't post jokes on HN.

~~~
thecity2
Unfortunately, that wasn't a joke.

------
ComputerGuru
Flagged because the title isn't just misleading, but completely wrong. Newton
did not predict the world would end in 2060, he claimed that the end of the
world would not happen until at least 2060, precisely to challenge claims that
it _would_ end in the nearer future (way back in the 1700s).

~~~
Hooke
I agree the headline shows unnecessary certainty. Likewise, "world ending" and
"apocalypse" aren't necessarily the same thing, especially when it comes to
someone with nonconformist religious views like Newton. But I would counter
that it isn't "completely wrong," at least based on Prof. Snobelin's
commentary, which the article links to:

[https://isaac-newton.org/statement-on-the-date-2060/](https://isaac-
newton.org/statement-on-the-date-2060/)

Here's a relevant quote:

"Since Newton believed that the 1260 years corresponded to the duration of the
corruption of the Church, he added 1260 to 800 A.D. and arrived at the date
2060 for the “fall of Babylon” or cessation of the apostate Church. It seems
that Newton believed the fall could perhaps begin somewhat before the end of
the 1260-year period and continue for a short time afterward. Whatever the
precise chronology, Newton believed that sometime shortly after the fall of
the corrupt (Trinitarian, Catholic) Church, Christ would return and set up a
1000-year Kingdom of God on earth."

So yes, it would be more accurate to say that "Newton predicted the apocalypse
would happen sometime around the year 2060," but I don't think the headline is
completely off base here.

------
daniel-cussen
Headline is very misleading.

It is true that, as an unorthodox theologian, Newton investigated the bible
for signs of when the world would end, and announced it certainly would not
end before 2060 to dispel continually recurring myths (from the Christian
standpoint) that it would end soon.

------
CamperBob2
(Almost) obligatory:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yis7GzlXNM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yis7GzlXNM)

 _... hiding up inside his attic on some Harry Potter business / The Universe
is infinite, but this battle is finished_

