

Econophysicist Predicts Date of Chinese Stock Market Collapse--Part II - ca98am79
http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/24023/

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patio11
This is Nostradamus level BS: he predicted the data of the Chinese stock
market collapse _incorrectly_ , it then _later_ crashed, and people are giving
him credit for "calling it" in _hindsight of it actually crashing_.

I'm calling for a massive, rapid recovery of the US economy. It will happen,
hmm, next Thursday at noon. If it happens a few months or years later, well, I
called it, so what if the timing was a little off.

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mixmax
While I agree with your main point it _does_ seem pretty close. The right
thing to do would be to do some math and figure out what the probability is
that it's just a coincidence.

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biohacker42
I put the probably of it being coincidence at 100%.

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yummyfajitas
If he is right, he is a moron. Why doesn't he keep his mouth shut, short the
market, and get fabulously rich?

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Dilpil
It is interesting that they felt confident enough to nail down an exact date
for the crash- and not at all surprising that they were wrong.

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natch
The article, with stunning lack of insight, fails to mention the possibility
that a published prediction could be self-fulfilling.

It's possible that when the date passed, whispers on the Internet about the
prediction failing drew the attention of the rumor mill in Shanghai, leading
to paranoia and a belated crash. Asian markets are pretty twitchy, after all.

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Semiapies
"Several questions come to mind. Is this the fall that Sornette and company
were predicting or just a coincidence, a regression to the mean? _And if the
fall is related to their prediction, could the drop have been caused by it?_ "

Emphasis added.

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BearOfNH
Once again, the projected date is the timing for a TOP in the market, not a
LOW. The bubble has been pricked but, as in very slow motion, it still looks
like a bubble for a long time before breaking down.

The chart in the original article
([http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/files/31560/Shang...](http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/files/31560/Shanghai%20bubble.png))
clearly depicts (forecasts) topping action in late July. Plus, the chart
labels indicate a "100% range" of 10-Jul thru 10-Aug which actually works out
well given the current 4-Aug top.

I don't think we've seen any "crash" yet. We've seen big moves down but The
Shanghai Composite Index is characteristically volatile. Usually, to the
extent such a term has any meaning here, it's a 55-day trip from market top to
crash low. The heavy action happens near the low which works out to ( ...
counts on fingers ... ) 9/28/2009.

It's OK to ridicule voodoo forecasting. But common courtesy demands you to
first understand what is being said, before you declare it BS. (The people at
TR share some blame; they could have stated things more clearly.)

