

How I Threw Hope Out The Window and Used Data to Build an Empire - pmichaud
http://www.petermichaud.com/essays/anchor-in-data-not-in-hope/

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Jabbles
The general point "don't put too much faith in estimations" is good, but
anyone who just assumes everything has a linear growth rate should probably
not be in business.

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pmichaud
Unfortunately that's how our brain software works! It's not necessarily a
conscious thing either--it's just an implicit assumption that we'll eventually
base either our excitement or disappointment on.

My point is to make your implicit assumption explicit, and to make it
realistic with data instead of bullshit.

