
Dear Ed Bott: No, Windows 8 is not the new XP - Toshio
http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2012/10/22/dear-ed-bott-no-windows-8-is-not-the-new-xp/
======
RyanMcGreal
> Microsoft needs to focus on what it is good at, and stop chasing Apple just
> because it wants to be good at what Apple is good at.

But the author spent the first half of the essay arguing that the market
Microsoft is good at is going away. If that's correct (and it's a big _if_ ),
Microsoft has no choice but to learn to be good at different things. You can
criticize how effectively Microsoft has done this - and that critique consumes
the latter half of the essay - but you can't simultaneously argue that
Microsoft needs to change what it does and that Microsoft needs to keep doing
what it's good at.

~~~
jbooth
The thing is, Microsoft _is_ doing what they're good at. They're good at
giving a consistent experience across whatever hardware, no matter what, and
damn any technical debt or consequences they incur in doing so. I think
someone posted a video of them actually running the upgrades from Windows 1.0
through to 7 on youtube somewhere.

Throwing touchscreen devices into the Windows wheelhouse and trying to write
one OS that runs across them and desktop machines is actually very much a bet
on MS's core competency.

~~~
Ntrails
"A consistent experience across whatever hardware?"

I take it you never tried to use one of the thousands of Vista laptops sold
with 1-1.5 gigs of RAM?

------
freehunter
>buying new PC hardware bundled with the Windows 8 “we won’t say Tax but
that’s what it is when you levy a fee on all products within a market because
you exercise dominion over it as a quasi-authority”)

Really? So does my car have a tire tax, just because it comes with tires on
it? If you're buying a PC, 99.99% of all people expect it to come with an OS.
In fact, it's cheaper to buy a PC preloaded with Windows ($35) than it is to
buy an unloaded PC and buy a copy of Windows ($150). There are major
manufacturers making Linux PCs. There are major manufacturers that will sell
you a box loaded with FreeDOS. There's even a major manufacturer that sells
pre-installed, well-supported, and beautiful Unix PCs (I've heard they're one
of the richest companies in the world). It's not like Microsoft is literally
taxing computers, they're charging an incredibly small amount of money and in
return you're getting their OS preinstalled like most of the market wants.

Can we get over the Windows Tax thing? It's pretty much akin to saying
Micro$oft. Funny in middle school, but it makes your argument much less
attractive now.

~~~
grimborg
I bought a ThinkPad recently in Europe, and there was no way for me not to buy
Windows. I don't need it and I don't want it. I don't even have it: I wiped
the hard disk immediately after getting it. I could choose what memory I
wanted, what screen I wanted or how much hard disk I wanted (SSD or regular
HDD), but I could not choose not to get Windows. The same is true for the
great majority of laptops.

Over the years I've wasted a lot of money buying copies of Windows that I
never used and that I never wanted.

I very much doubt that this is so because of convenience: it is so because it
gives more money to Microsoft.

It's outrageous.

So, yes, I wish we could get over the Microsoft Tax thing. Call it Microsoft
Mandatory Purchase or Microsoft Gratious Gift for Mere Pennies if you wish, it
doesn't matter.

~~~
steverb
Oddly enough, I bought a MacBook last year, and there was no way for me to not
buy OSX. I don't need it, and I don't want it. I installed Windows 7
immediately after getting it.

Of course, I knew that when buying a MacBook I would end up paying a small
amount for the development of OSX even though I had no intention of using it.

I had options, you had options. We chose the option we did because in balance
that was the best option for us respectively.

~~~
gnaffle
Is it wrong to point out that you would have had better options if
manufacturers made this bundling optional? And that the range of options seem
to decrease over time? (Eg. you can't buy Windows RT and install it on an
iPad).

~~~
freehunter
The ARM market is different due to many drivers and specs not being open-
sourced. In some cases, the drivers for the SoC are hidden behind an NDA and
you have to be a hardware partner to get access to these drivers. Trying to
install Windows RT on an iPad would likely result in finding driver
incompatibilities.

------
neya
Personally, I feel this author is far too biased. He spends too much time in
bringing Apple into context even when unnecessary. His theory that there is a
'Post-PC' era and iPads are replacing computers is just plain BS.

>Microsoft needs to focus on what it is good at, and stop chasing Apple just
because it wants to be good at what Apple is good at.

This line just destroyed his credibility. The false ideology that these
writers have, that is, everyone is chasing Apple these days should be
corrected. I think Microsoft is just trying to make their Windows Operating
systems better by introducing a new UI.

It is stupid to label anyone as a copycat of Apple just because they are
trying to perfect their products.

To support my arguments, here is another article explaining very well why
there is no 'post-pc' era:

[http://www.winsupersite.com/article/windows8/windows-rt-
redm...](http://www.winsupersite.com/article/windows8/windows-rt-redmond-
problem-144554)

It is actually not in support of Windows/Microsoft, but it explains very well
why there is no 'post-pc' era.

FYI: I own 2 windows based desktops, an iMac, an iPad and 4 Android phones.
There are a lot of things my iPad will never be able to do like my PC.

~~~
velodrome
I hate the use of the term "Post-PC Era". The PC is not going anywhere. The PC
is a tool. It's like you were using Swiss Army knife all this time and now you
have a dedicated Phillips head screwdriver and a real wrench now. We just have
better tools now for specific scenarios:

Are you going to use a spreadsheet on on your IPad?

Are you going to use your laptop to make a call you are stuck on the side of
the road?

Both Jobs' Truck/Car metaphor and Microsoft's "PCs are everywhere" are both
correct.

~~~
hilko
I see your point, but the phone example actually plays into the post-pc
argument. And when it comes to spreadsheets, I'd argue that there are tons of
people that don't do much with this. Sure, apple or whatever post-pc company
might appear might not take over the corporate world, but it might still be a
scary thought to microsoft that the post-pc devices, tailored to needs (iPad:
simpler creation and consumption, iPhone: on the road calls and other stuff)
could take a significant chunk of their revenue. Betting on just corporate,
and not the creative sector at that, might be putting too many eggs in one
basket.

So I agree that the post-pc device can never take over certain functions, but
it can replace enough to make microsoft worry.

------
tatsuke95
> _"But it’s worse that that. iPad sales have hit conventional PCs so hard"_

This is so over-blown. Apple has sold something like 80MM iPads since the
device was released. On the other hand, there were 90 million PCs sold _in the
first quarter_ of 2012.

Tablets are great, but they aren't replacing PCs any time soon. For all we
know, the market will be tablet-saturated after Christmas.

> _"Microsoft can’t command those prices anymore because of competition. Apple
> now hands out OS X upgrades for $29, forcing Microsoft to sell its new
> Windows 8 Pro upgrades for just $40."_

In 2001, Apple was selling OSX for $129. The low cost of operating system
upgrades was something that happened gradually, over time.

------
crag
"But he appears to be oblivious to a signifiant new problem facing Windows 8:
people and businesses aren’t buying as many PCs as they once were. They’re
buying iPads."

I don't know what office you work in.. but no; iPads have not replaced PC's.
Yet. There are too many applications that just don't work well enough on a
tablet device. This will change of course. But not today.

Granted a lot of people in the office have ipads, but most bought it
themselves. And use it with a PC. Not in place of.

~~~
rrrene
That's certainly true for the office. But, as the author points out later in
the article, many PCs were bought to serve as cash registers and info
terminals, and those are replaced by tablets more and more.

So IMHO it's not that far fetched to say that individuals and businesses are
buying _less_ PCs than they were when Win XP came along. Doesn't say they
aren't buying them anymore, just less.

~~~
crag
Really? I was just at the mail the other day, and I didn't see one iPad being
used as a cash register.

The only place I see people using their iPads to cash out are at the farmers
market. And that makes sense since you are outside and need something
portable.

But I do agree, businesses are buying less PC's but not because they are
replacing them with iPads. Because they aren't spending the money. The glut in
the PC market is that everyone has one. It's saturated (I'm talking the
Western World here, not developing countries). Now you buy one as a upgrade.
And businesses only upgrade when they must.

MS's job is to provide a compelling reason to upgrade. Time will tell if
Windows 8 does this (I doubt it actually. Maybe when more apps are built for
it).

~~~
stinos
"Really? I was just at the mail the other day, and I didn't see one iPad being
used as a cash register."

the comment above you also talks about 'tablets', not 'ipads'. Tablet-style
things (ie rather small devices with a touch screen) have been used for cash
registers and as controls in the industry for quite some time. A lot of them
were merely PC's, running some sort of Windows. This might start changing now
since tablets are getting more widespread, hardware getting cheaper etc.

------
the_ancient
How many words do you need to write to say "Microsoft Bad-- Apple Do no wrong"
over and over?????

And all of those words and zero mention of Linux or Android...

~~~
Synaesthesia
Daniel Eran Dilger is a massive Apple apologist and fanboy. And I say this as
an Apple fanboy.

------
madoublet
Windows 8 is simply _better_ than what Apple and Google are offering now.
Enthusiasts such as Bott are having a hard time explaining this because they
are not use to Microsoft having a superior product. And, Apple apologists are
beside themselves trying to figure out how Microsoft designed a better looking
OS.

It is funny that our loyalties to brands make it difficult to just step back
and say "man, that is cool". So, let me do it for you: "man, Windows 8 is
cool".

------
aufreak3

        "Windows Phone is doing so badly that Nokia, Microsoft’s
        largest and staunchest mobile partner, actually sold more
        of its abandoned legacy Symbian devices (3.4 million) 
        than its new Windows Phone Lumia phones (2.9 million) in 
        the last quarter." 
    

That stat actually looks relatively impressive to me. 2.9 mil Lumia phones in
a quarter? Why is this stat presented as "doing badly"?

~~~
bergie

      2.9 mil Lumia phones in a quarter? Why is this stat presented as "doing badly"?
    

2.9mil smartphones is not a terribly good number if you consider how the
market has grown, and how big Nokia used to be. In Q1 2011 they sold 24mil
smartphones, and last quarter only about 6mil, over half of which were still
Symbian. So, a pure-WP Nokia would now be only about 10-15% of what the
company was in the "good old days".

Samsung sold about 10mil Galaxy Notes in a year (so, ~2.5mil/Q), and that
"phablet" is quite a niche device. And Verizon alone sold more iPhones in Q3
than Nokia sold Lumias worldwide.

Maybe WP8 will change this, but I'm doubtful.

~~~
aufreak3
I understand that the 2.9mil figure is small compared to the figures for the
other makers _today_ , however, what were these figures for, say, the second
or third generation of android devices? For a relatively new entrant, a market
take up of 2.9mil in a quarter makes me think MS might rise in the phone
space. Any economies of scale advantage that Apple might have bought itself
would likely put Android makers and WinPhone makers on the same footing,
margin wise. Can the market tolerate more than 2 major players? Quite easily,
i think (given symbian is kn its way out). If you include a country like India
where iphone calibre smartphones are not the dominant kind, it doesnt look
like a lost game for MS. Besides, they have other assets to leverage off, like
office sync (which i hear is good), azure, etc.

~~~
bergie
There are many open questions here, but for example I'm not putting a lot of
faith for WP in places like India or China, as the license costs and hardware
requirements make it targeted for the high end of smartphones (for now).

Also, the situation with young Android or iOS is not exactly comparable to the
one now, as then the markets were still dominated by featurephones, and so
there were lots of "new" customers to convert. Now for example in USA the
market is 50% smartphone, and people already have invested into one of the
ecosystems. Getting those users to switch is a lot harder.

~~~
bergie
I may have been wrong on this one, seems Nokia is indeed intent on bringing WP
to those countries: [http://www.slashgear.com/nokia-announces-inexpensive-
lumia-5...](http://www.slashgear.com/nokia-announces-inexpensive-
lumia-510-windows-smartphone-23253267/)

However, 200$ is still too much.

------
SlipperySlope
Microsoft-bashing zingers from the article ...

"The problem with the PC isn’t that the market desperately wants a new version
of Windows that looks different and has a higher version number. The real
problem is that the well has run dry, and new versions of Windows won’t fix
this. And really, if they’re too different, they’ll just accelerate the shift
to Post PC devices."

"There is not going to be huge annual increases in PC shipments anymore.
Everyone knows this. What they don’t always seem to see as clearly is that you
can have a personal computer without having a box under your desk blowing hot
air away from an Intel CPU."

"Windows Phone is not just unpopular, it’s so toxic it lethally crippled what
was not too long ago the world’s leading smartphone manufacturer."

"Not to worry, the Windows Enthusiasts tell us. Microsoft doesn’t need a lack
of competition, high ASPs, expanding revenues, nor even any support via Post-
PC devices. The legacy pile of PCs out there will magically blow money in
Microsoft’s direction once Windows 8 hits because that’s what happened in the
past."

"There are tremendous problems facing the Surface. The first: it’s based on a
lie. It’s called “Windows 8 RT,” but consumers associate “Windows” with two
things: a familiar interface and the ability to run Windows apps. Surface RT
supports neither."

"The non-RT, Intel x86 version of Surface not only isn’t available yet, but
it’s going to be too thick, expensive and heavy to compete with iPad, just
like any other Ultrabook or previous Windows Tablet."

"Saying that the Surface is a combination of Microsoft’s Xbox 360 hardware
savvy and its Windows Phone software savvy is like one of those jokes about a
train engineered by Italians, serving English food, managed by Portugal and
financed by Greece."

------
mtgx
_"Saying that the Surface is a combination of Microsoft’s Xbox 360 hardware
savvy and its Windows Phone software savvy is like one of those jokes about a
train engineered by Italians, serving English food, managed by Portugal and
financed by Greece."_

Good analogy.

~~~
josephlord
I think it is probably more than a little unfair although there is some truth
which makes it funny.

I independently commented quoting that sentence but deleted it when I saw you
beat me to it.

------
josteink
_And today, you’re already seeing cash registers, terminal emulation, and
other dummy tasks being performed by iPads rather than PCs._

Not arguing against the entire point of the article, but that seems like a
highly localized phenomenon. In fact, I haven't seen PCs used for this in over
10 years either.

Maybe I'm missing something.

Anyway. The article seem full of half-truths and inaccuracies intermixed with
opinion to support his point. I'm not saying he's _all_ wrong, but he has
enough wrong to lose most of his credibility.

~~~
stephengillie
_In fact, I haven't seen PCs used for this in over 10 years either._

I see them all the time, in Safeway, Albertson's, Wal-Mart, Kroger's, Rite-
Aid, etc. They're running custom register software & a network-boot OS, but
reboot them and they still run through the same bios POST and start-up
messages as today's desktop PCs.

------
brudgers
> _" There is not going to be huge annual increases in PC shipments anymore.
> Everyone knows this."_

It might make sense to point out that what everyone knew a few years ago was
that Apple was dead. It might make sense to point out that this week Microsoft
will begin shipping a true post PC operating system, Windows RT, to hardware
OEM's, and that Microsoft will have first mover advantage.

Yes, it might make sense to point out these things, but everyone knows them.

------
netcan
I would describe the danger to MS/Windows a little differently.

Windows was fairly protected by being a big natural monopoly. Making a good OS
is itself a difficult task. Making a good OS & getting an application market
to grow around it in a deal-breaker rich environment is nearly impossible.
There were no ways to climb the hill other than straight up the steep face.

Smartphones/tablets are an angle of attack. An easier way to climb the hill.
Android & iOS matured without having to compete with windows. Now two of MS's
most dangerous competitors can both launch new smartphone derived PC (keyboard
& mouse) operating systems with 80% of the work (in both OS building & in app
ecosystem building) already done.

Even worse, there may be room for new mobile OS' to get going. The market
isn't tending to the same kind of monopoly as PCs.

I predict that iOS, Android and/or yet-to-succeed OSs are going to hop from
tablets & phones to TVs and other devices. Its only a matter of time before we
see one gaining traction on laptops. Apple could probably release a $500 post-
PC PC within a year that will double (in units) Apple sales out of the gate.
Google could too (though it probably wouldn't hit the ground running as fast).

Eventually, this market will fold in on itself and we will have several OS
families. I would be surprised if any one (including windows) gets as firm a
grip on any market as microsoft did.

This doesn't mean that MS dies. They are (despite the criticisms) a very
competent company. It just means they compete with 2-5 different companies for
market share in a bigger market. consumers win.

------
natmaster
This is the reasoning behind Win8 being so bad. Microsoft has abandoned the
desktop in a fairy dream to chase the iPad.

~~~
stinos
Do they really have abandoned the desktop? Not so sure about that. Also read
discussion here: <http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4660072>. Is Windows 8
really that bad? Not sure either.. Opinions are at least mixed, so let's not
start calling things a fact yet, for something that not even has been widely
adopted.

------
precisioncoder
I am hoping that the same thing will happen with mobile devices as with pc's
and you will be able to buy a device and load it with the software you choose.
I don't like any of the mobile OS's they all feel too restrictive in terms of
storing and manipulating files and turning on and off functionality.

------
bztzt
(note: I work for Microsoft. but I certainly don't represent them and in fact
I think they'd probably rather I didn't run my mouth here :) Also just because
I work for Microsoft doesn't mean I know what I'm talking about when I talk
about Microsoft either, it's hard enough to even keep track of what the
specific team I'm on is really doing sometimes let alone the whole company so
keep that in mind :) also I'm drunk :) )

The frustrating thing about reading Daniel Dilger's articles is that he's
actually a good deal more knowledgeable than most tech pundits and
occasionally even insightful, but his worldview is so Apple-centric that he's
blind to having any idea what his blind spots are. This article is a case in
point, almost everything factual in it about Microsoft is wrong, to wit:

* Zune wasn't a low-budget project (it was actually funded fairly lavishly, in part because it _was_ meant partly as a kind of pilot project for developing new Microsoft design aesthetics / patterns / practices)

* Zune wasn't based on web technologies (it used Yet Another Internal UI Framework _). Neither is Windows 8 really (there is a web-based UI framework, along with a native one, but they both sit on top of native APIs)

_ Windows 8 has nothing in common with Zune codebase-wise, and UI/design-wise
though there's a family lineage between them it was developed independently
from the Zune->Windows Phone line (which itself has changed a lot over the
years) and diverged quite a bit

* he still apparently thinks the new Windows UI is a "thin layer" on top of old Windows, which I think he still imagines as Windows XP or whatever. in previous posts he was having fun comparing it to Bob. I think that's fundamentally wrong - while the new environment isn't really separate from existing Windows it's imo misleading to think of it as a "thin upper layer", because developing it involved making deeper changes & refactorings to every layer of the system (ARM support, window hardening, MoCOM, PLM, app model, async, etc.)

* see, not only does his ignorance lead taking jabs at MSFT that don't make sense, it leads to him missing out on potential avenues of attack that WOULD make sense - he could make fun of the ridiculous UI framework fragmentation problem Microsoft has, which is an area where Apple actually has its shit together and has for some time.

------
Sumaso
Honestly I think even Microsoft fan boys don't think that windows 8 will be an
immediate win.

Windows 8 is the painful stepping stone that windows needs to step on in order
to move forward and stay competitive.

~~~
pmelendez
Have you tried it? Because I did installed it at home since the public beta
and it is not painful at all. Actually it is very reliable and fast. We can
argue whether it would be successful or not but I can't see how it is painful.

~~~
lotso
I agree. I don't see any reasons why I would choose to use Windows 7 over
Windows 8. Even if you don't use the Metro interface for anything besides
launching apps, it is still a better OS.

