
Doomsday Clock at the shortest distance to midnight ever - scooter_de
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock
======
eplanit
It's time to heed the calls to finally retire the theater of the clock. Its
symbolic meaning has been stretched too far:

1\. [https://www.wsj.com/articles/time-to-stop-the-doomsday-
clock...](https://www.wsj.com/articles/time-to-stop-the-doomsday-
clock-11579734922)

2\. [https://thefederalist.com/2016/01/27/retire-the-doomsday-
clo...](https://thefederalist.com/2016/01/27/retire-the-doomsday-clock/)

3\.
[https://www.realclearscience.com/articles/2018/01/26/why_its...](https://www.realclearscience.com/articles/2018/01/26/why_its_time_to_retire_the_doomsday_clock_110529.html)

~~~
anakaine
When the clock is almost always midnight, surely we are either on the cusp, or
the time is set incorrectly. Although there are many things wrong I'd argue
that we are nowhere near as bad off as during the peak of the cold war, for
example.

~~~
dhosek
I'd argue that with climate change, we're worse off than during the cold war.
At least during the cold war, no one was arguing that nuclear annihilation
wasn't a problem.

~~~
allovernow
Even the worst predictions of runaway warming are going to take decades, if
not centuries, to manifest, and at worst we're probably talking about mass
migrations as arable regions shift. Earth turning into Venus or Mars is
unlikely and even if that is the case such a transformation would
realistically take so long that it's frankly hysteria to call it doomsday.

~~~
Sevrene
The worst possible outcome as far as humans are concerned is an economical
disaster which would lead to people with out money, food, or water. People die
with out those, so it's likely they would be willing to fight to death for
them. So the worst outcome in the distant future is probably a collapse of
society as we know it. Migrants already cause a lot of political instability.
Lack of resources already cause wars and deaths. This will be exacerbated by
climate change, and to some degree already is now. For example, a shortage of
food causes unrest and that unrest grows to the point it can be used to
justify a conflict.

We have to have a lot of inaction to get to that point from here, but it's
possible.

~~~
allovernow
The point is that none of this is going to happen overnight and though
millions may suffer or die, there will be time for mitigation. Civilization
won't end - which is the criteria for the doomsday clock. The inclusion of
climate change may be well intentioned but it is inappropriate.

~~~
Sevrene
I think you're right that people often over estimate the suddeness of climate
change, when in actual fact it is a slow process over a long period of time,
so change will come slowly not like a big disaster that people might have in
their heads.

But the economy and society can change suddenly. People denying anything is
wrong keeps it going. Everything is fine until it isn't, then change can come
suddenly. USSR I think is a good example of this.

The economy will run until the constraints make it fail. This already happens
now sometimes. We just have the means and the methods to fix it, or prevent
it. Global warming will cause those constraints and our abilities to change
and the economy is not just magically going to keep going, unless climate
change is deterred.

Lack of food, lack of money, lack of stable government, etc. I think these are
all conditions for civilisation ending. I don't think it will go from the
stability we have now to no stability over a very long period. It will be like
a pendulum and it will oscilate until one thing becomes too many and it will
be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

I want to make it clear I'm saying this is only a possibility, and only if no
change occurs. I don't think is the most likely outcome, merely that it's
possible.

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makerofspoons
While originally the Clock represented the threat of the power struggle
between superpowers, it's important to note that factors such as climate
change and bioterrorism are now factored into setting the Clock. The Clock's
current position was explained as follows:

'On 23 January 2020, the Clock was moved further, to 100 seconds (1 minute 40
seconds) before midnight, meaning that the Clock's status today is the closest
to midnight since the Clock's start in 1947. The Bulletin' executive chairman,
Jerry Brown, said "the dangerous rivalry and hostility among the superpowers
increases the likelihood of nuclear blunder... Climate change just compounds
the crisis".'

I think many can appreciate that the lack of appreciable action on climate
change is at least as worrisome as the the threat of a nuclear exchange and it
is looking increasingly likely we will miss our 1.5-2 degree targets.

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teruakohatu
Since 1991, so almost three decades, it has only been moved back once, and
then only by 1 second.

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oh_sigh
The Doomsday Clock is a PR piece for a group of politicized scientists.

The threat of a nuclear catastrophe is higher now than it was during the Cuban
missile crisis? That doesn't ring true.

~~~
dhosek
It's not just nuclear catastrophe that's being measured.

>"Midnight" has a deeper meaning to it besides the constant threat of war.
There are various things taken into consideration when the scientists from The
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists decide what Midnight and "global
catastrophe" really mean in a particular year. They might include "politics,
energy, weapons, diplomacy, and climate science"

~~~
oh_sigh
Even the worst projections of climate change are not "doomsday" events. Global
nuclear Holocaust is doomsday. Extreme weather and displaced people is not
doomsday. Which goes to exactly my point about the clock being used by
politicized scientists.

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bArray
How seriously should this be taken? It doesn't feel as if we're much closer
than we have been?

~~~
kaonashi
Virus pandemics affecting global trade, climate change is starting to build
steam and become irreversible, right-wing ethnocentric parties are taking over
in much of the developed world.

How can you not take it seriously?

~~~
SlowRobotAhead
I think you can take serious problems seriously without “Ok Doomer”.

If you are told you are seconds from annihilation all the time, someone is
playing with your emotions.

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S_A_P
Can we reference self fulfilling prophecy here? Subject-Expectancy Effect? I
am all for taking stock of our world and trying to fix problems. But IMHO,
seeing things like this is apt to make people say "F __K IT, BURN IT DOWN!!! "

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tedunangst
It's interesting that the precision of the clock increases as we approach
midnight.

~~~
simonsarris
Zeno's Doomsday Clock.

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ErikAugust
A clock probably isn't a very accurate device for measuring how close we are
to Doomsday.

