
HP To Apple: You Win. - ssclafani
http://techcrunch.com/2011/08/18/apple-wins-without-throwing-a-punch/
======
igorgue
"As I write this, I’m sitting in a cafe. Around me, there are five people on
laptops — four of them are MacBooks. Four other people are using tablets — all
four are iPads. Welcome to the Post-PC world."

Also you live in San Francisco, I'm sitting in a cafe in Florida, and we got 2
macs (me (developer) and another guy that is a designer apparently) and 10 PC,
welcome back to the PC era.

~~~
doctoboggan
Go sit in any college lecture hall and you will see at least 60% Apple
products. Apple heavily markets toward college students (Student discounts and
back to school promotions) and these same students will be buying Macs for
their homes and offices soon.

~~~
jbellis
Apple's been heavily marketing towards college students for 20 years. What's
different about it in 2011?

~~~
jseliger
Success, I suspect.

OSes have grown much closer to each other over the last five to eight years;
websites (or "the cloud" or whatever term you wish to refer to server-browser-
driven software) are much more important; the relative cost gap between Macs
and Windows machines is much smaller; Apple laptops appear to be vastly better
made than any mainstream Windows laptops save Thinkpads.

Take these together, and you'll see a lot of Aluminum MacBooks on campus.
Geeks like them because of the Terminal, GNU toolchain, and the fact that
other geeks have spent lots of time optimizing the general OS X programming
environment; everyone else likes them because they're more aesthetically
attractive than Windows laptops.

~~~
cageface
I agree that the obstacles to entry are much lower for Apple now. But there is
still a significant price premium for Apple laptops. Maybe it's not
consequential for people that can afford to pay tuition in a Western
university but for the rest of the world that premium is still decisive.

~~~
jshen
IPad. No price premium there.

~~~
cageface
Which is exactly why competing tablets haven't gained ground. Why buy a less
usable device for the same price? Things in the tablet market will only get
interesting when and if Android vendors can significantly undercut Apple.

~~~
jshen
It's funny you assume they can't make a more useable device ;) funny cause
it's true.

~~~
cageface
The dynamics of the Android ecosystem are such that its value proposition will
always be that you trade flexibility for polish.

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pagekalisedown
I love Apple products, but the lack of a monopoly is what's keeping Apple
innovating. Lets hope no other competitors decide to drop out.

~~~
ifthen
Hmm. Typically, it’s the opposite, no? There are plenty of companies who have
no reason to innovate once their competition is gone.

~~~
robtoo
Grand-parent has slightly clumsy phrasing, but you both agree: " _the lack of_
a monopoly is what's keeping Apple innovating"

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pandaassembly
My bet is, that the tablet sales will be good in terms of absolute numbers,
but not as high the industry had wished.

I still do not see the too many compelling usecases when comparing a tablet
with a smartphone + netbook/ultra leight weight laptop.

Hence the hugh success of the Ipad is in my opinion not much a result of its
advanced features or even its slick design but rather its clever position as a
must have status symbol.

~~~
pinaceae
the iPad sees record adoption among mobile field forces. big pharma is going
nuts over it, placing orders of 10.000+ ipads at once. it has no moving parts,
it is idiot proof. if it breaks, the rep can go into a best buy, buy a new
one, log+sync, done - everything works as before, including the apps. with
iOS5 and OTA upgrades this will be even easier.

the pain of fielding 10000 hp tablet pcs globally suddenly goes away. for a
cheaper device, that is lighter, faster, sturdier, with great battery life.
with a stable, consistent OS environment below it. no more OS images, driver
fuckups, etc etc etc.

the iPad will destroy headcounts in enterprise IT just like Exchange did in
the realm of secretaries.

~~~
xradionut
Really? How long have you worked in enterprise IT?

We been dealing with mobile users for decades and it's a small percentage of
our staff/budget that actually deals with in-field devices and issues. iPads
and smart phones are nice, but the sales force and folks at remote sites find
themselves more productive with a laptop that has a keyboard and the ability
to run "true applications".

As for HP, it hasn't been the HP of lore in decades.

~~~
pinaceae
some years by now actually. what is a "true application"? siebel? sap crm?
both dead dead dead.

combining crm and clm on the ipad rocks the world of the sales reps out there.
no more paper. digital signatures on a slim device.

i saw the hordes of IT needed to manage the windows tablets out there,
maintaining windows SMS servers or some 3rd party solutions, then also
patching and updating all that other "true apps". noticed that apple solved
that through the app store, once and for all?

servers are getting killed by SaaS, notebooks by the iPad. SAP has fielded
17000 iPads internally...

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dstein
So between Apple's ritzy kickass mobile PCs and the boatloads of sub-$100
chinese Androids that will flood the market soon, is there any room for a
third platform? I really don't see anything stopping RIM and Microsoft from
ending up at the same dead end.

~~~
hollerith
For many years now, the majority of Microsoft's revenue has come from
enterprise sales, and Apple and Google has a very long way to go to dominate
that market.

~~~
dstein
I meant I see Microsoft's Windows Phone platform ending up in the same place
the WebOS platform is in. Certainly Microsoft may stay in business selling
refreshed versions of Office and Exchange. But I don't see how that will
translate into success in an all-mobile + all-cloud computing world where
Microsoft has no strength.

~~~
wallflower
We use Windows 7 on our office workstations, and I was surprised and am daily
impressed at how Mac-like it is. It doesn't get in the way of what you're
trying to do.

Win 7 users: Try holding the combo Windows-key + Tab for a nice 3d carousel

~~~
zmmmmm
> Win 7 users: Try holding the combo Windows-key + Tab for a nice 3d carousel

It's interesting that you attribute that to Win7 when in fact it was
introduced in Vista.

~~~
wallflower
We skipped Vista, XP SP3? was around forever.

I will have to read up on Vista, like did it have the auto close programs
shutdown feature.

~~~
contextfree
Yep.

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MatthewPhillips
Glad to see MG switching things up from his usual screencaps of Gladiator. If
you're going to frame every tech story as a battle, Mike Tyson's Punch-Out
seems more appropriate.

~~~
Legion
I imagine HP will be dismayed to discover they were Glass Joe. They were
shooting for Super Macho Man but they thought they were at least Don Flamenco.

~~~
dolphenstein
The German Von Kaiser (WePad) seems to have been knocked out before even
getting in the ring. Look forward to the next round with Piston Honda (Sony?).
Of course in this new 2011 version it's not "Little Mac", it's "Absolutely
Domineering Mac".

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baggachipz
"The Post-PC device is about the combination of hardware and software all
built and integrated by one company. Google doesn’t get that."

Except that they create partnerships to put out a Google-branded phone, and
just bought the leading Android device manufacturer in order to more tightly
couple the experience, so that's exactly what the "get"... ( _Sees post
author_ ) Oh, nevermind. Look, I like Apple products as much as the next guy,
but at what point will this MG clown be happy? I hope Apple pays him a decent
salary.

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demallien
Does anyone else find the timing odd? At the start of the week, Google
announce that they are getting into the hardware game with Android. At the end
of the week, HP announce that they are getting out of the WebOS hardware game.
But note that they say they are looking at options to maximise the value of
the WebOS software. It makes me wonder if HTC / Samsung aren't hedging their
bets by looking to license WebOS.

I mean, it kind of makes sense - WebOS is acclaimed as being a solid piece of
software, it's certainly the most iPhone-esque of the competitors (Android,
Windows Mobile 7, RIM). At a minimum, I would think HTC/Samsung would have an
interest in maintaining a viable WebOS, even if it was just to be able to use
it as a bludgeon if ever Google stops playing nice with Android.

~~~
patd
But if HP is become an entreprise-software company, why would they want to
keep updating WebOS as a end-user software for smartphones and tablets ?

Licensing only makes sense if HP puts his weight behind WebOS as a good
alternative to iOS and Android.

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ansy
I am skeptical about Palm's IP finding its way to Amazon. Amazon seems to have
invested heavily in Android not only with its own store but a whole line of
tablets and phones coming out very, very soon. The talent might be good. But
the patents aren't critical and there is no way Amazon wants to go down the
same path that just failed for HP.

Really, Google would be the best suitor of Palm if anyone was going to buy it.
Google needs those patents bad. Google can use webOS code and engineers on
ChromeOS. The UI designers can go to the Android team. And Google just got a
hardware division that can absorb any remaining hardware guys.

If Google can get all that for $2 billion it should write the check tomorrow.
Bargain.

~~~
justincormack
The only thing is that Amazon mainly seems to want to run their own software,
and have their own app store. Having a different os might help. Seems
unnecessary for them though.

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tjmc
God I wish Nokia had bought Palm and WebOS. I used to work for Elop and I like
him, but my heart sank when he hitched Nokia's wagon to MS.

~~~
amartya916
An aside to this thread, but Windows Phone 7 isn't as bad as you might think.
I understand that you are mainly wary of the Microsoft slow moving / non-
exciting culture but Windows Phone 7 is quite exciting. Microsoft Research
does a lot of really fabulous HCI research and slowly but surely it is
percolating through the company despite having dinosaurs like Ballmer in
charge. To refer to a lame example, I was pleasantly surprised when I saw that
a phone UI actually used amodal completion in it's
design(<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amodal_perception>). A mobile phone with
its limited screen real estate is ideal for such a design and I believe this
came out of their research lab.

Anyway, Siegler's article had the interesting reference to Amazon. If Jeff
Bezos/Amazon picks up WebOS, it might just have a chance of survival.

------
grout
I believe that's "HP To Competent Businesses."

------
smtf
I really hope WebOS finds safe harbor. We lost Maemo or Meego or whatever it's
(was) called last week and now this. The players are dropping out too early.
Maybe the iPad "won" but the space will be big enough to support other
players. I want more choices at this early stage, not fewer.

------
rblion
"I’ve said this before, but thought it was worth repeating: It’s in Apple’s
DNA that technology alone is not enough. That it’s technology married with
liberal arts, married with the humanities, that yields us the result that
makes our hearts sing." - Steve Jobs

~~~
cageface
That guy is such a cheesy salesman. Apple has been lucky to face incompetent
competitors.

~~~
rblion
You are such a cheesy hater. Steve is a hacker and a pioneer in many fields.
Why do you hate him?

~~~
cageface
I've been in the same room with him mid-rant. I'm guessing you haven't.

~~~
rblion
I have not. I don't know him personally. What about him repulses so many
people? I am genuinely curious. Please share, I'm sure a lot of us are
wondering the same thing.

~~~
rblion
OK, that is what many different people say about him. Must be true. I wonder
if he has changed any after being kicked out?

I guess there is no genius without some form of madness. I respect him mainly
because he is a product of the 60's counterculture and was able to infuse
"cosmic consciousness" into technology.

I'm glad you don't. So many people take it way too far. It's just a computer
man.

~~~
cageface
If I could ask him one question I would really like to know how he sees his
life's work from the perspective of his inspirations from the 60s. In some
respects what he's done seems very much in keeping with those ideals
(fostering creativity and an appreciation for beauty) and in others totally
antithetical (creating walled gardens, using the legal system as a cudgel). It
goes to the heart of my own ambivalence about Apple. I like their products but
I'm finding it hard to like the company lately.

~~~
darkandbrooding
After one-or-another of Dick Cheney's heart attacks, the news media spent some
time quoting research about the way that life-threatening illnesses can change
one's personality; how (of course) people react differently to such crises,
but also how driven, egocentric men tend to refine and focus their priorities,
and even to jettison qualms that they might have previously carried.

It's not surprising to me that an ambitious man like Jobs, who (arguably)
failed with Apple the first time around, then failed with NeXT, then became
seriously ill while leading a resurgent Apple, might decide that the touchy-
feely bits of his youthful worldview are less important than a more tangible
legacy.

I'm not saying it's the correct choice, or laudable, but it is understandable.

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buro9
This is a real shame, at the high end HP produced workstations that are truly
superlative. I have a Z800 sat next to me that has smaller than a Mac Pro,
more silent, more powerful, and IMHO looks fabulous.

The work I do means that I can't see me getting rid of a workstation in a long
while even though I recognise the that consumer desktop market has been
obliterated over these past 5 or 10 years (laptops > ultra-portables >
netbooks > tablets) I really hope that the more business focused part of HP
remain intact and churning out incredible products.

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fuzzythinker
Very nicely articulated article from MG on this. Although I may be biased
since it pretty much echoes every point I believe as well. Anyone think
otherwise?

~~~
recoiledsnake
The opening line of extrapolating a SFO cafe to a Post-PC _world_ was pretty
cheesy. This guy has no idea how things work in the world, especially Asia.

Also no mention of how Carly Fiorina got rid of the R&D teams to cut costs,
leading to the current disaster. Siegler comes across as a shallow fanboy,
atleast Gruber can put some better spin on things.

~~~
fuzzythinker
Don't want to turn this into flame, but I disagree with your argument. I
thought it is Asia that is more PC-less than US & Europe. And it is impossible
to tell if the R&D teams really stay and did a good job, would it really make
webOS flourish or would it just prolong its dismise. Can webOS even win 3rd
place without a true believing CEO that bet the company behind it? That is why
I believe that details about how it got into this "mess" is irrelevant to the
article.

~~~
cooldeal
>I thought it is Asia that is more PC-less than US & Europe

Huh what? Have you looked at Mac penetration in Asia?

Look at Safari usage in North America vs. Asia

<http://gs.statcounter.com/#browser-as-monthly-201007-201107>

Sales of PCs in China grew 11% last quarter year over year.

~~~
megablast
Nothing you have said counters fuzzyfinger point 'I thought it is Asia that is
more PC-less than US & Europe.'

Yes, Asia may have more macs, and they may be growing more, but we are after
statistics showing more people use mobile devices for internet access than
PCs.

~~~
thezilch
It's not clear what you are trying to say, but I think you at least should
have changed the statistic on the same graph:
[http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_browser-as-
monthly-201007-...](http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_browser-as-
monthly-201007-201107)

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aufreak3
Biased techcrunch reporting apart, I felt a bit saddened by the announcement
because I actually thought HP had a chance at being "one of the three" in the
devices space. I liked their webos demos and their devices seemed pleasing to
use. Oh well.

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jp
Translation: Apple VS Samsung/Motorola.

