
PyCon 2020 Update on Covid-19 - dbader
https://pycon.blogspot.com/2020/03/march-2-update-on-covid-19.html
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barbegal
The doubling period of Covid-19 is between 1.8 and 4.1 days where large scale
quarantine measures aren't being taken [1][2]. The conference is in 43 days so
without large scale quarantines and stopping large events then the number of
cases in the US could grow to as many as 800,000 assuming a doubling period of
3 days. It seems therefore fairly obvious that most large events in April will
have to be cancelled.

[1]
[https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs15010-020-01401...](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs15010-020-01401-y)
[2]
[https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jmv.25723](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jmv.25723)

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veganjay
Thanks for sharing the journal articles.

According to [1], on January 31, 2020 US had 6 cases of Covid-19. And
according to several news sites, as of March 2, 2020, there are 101 cases.

If I did the math correctly, that seems to be doubling about every four days
or so, which lines up with the doubling period mentioned.

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barbegal
Its difficult to tell because the US hasn't been doing as much testing as
other countries. You can look at the curves for various countries at
[https://covid.bio/](https://covid.bio/) Most countries that haven't initiated
large scale quarantines have a doubling period of between 1.5 and 5 days

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dnautics
On the other hand, one wonders if that curve measures not infection rates, but
testing kit manufacturing output.

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zenlot
> Currently, there have not been any COVID-19 cases in Pennsylvania

No boundaries to stupidity. Such arguments makes no sense at all, better check
how many people have been tested in PA. While everyone cancelling large scale
events there are few mohicans going forward seeing no risk.

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Leary
Maybe buy a few temperature guns and point them at people's foreheads before
they enter?

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lhl
Due to the long incubation period, infected people can be infectious even
while not presenting symptoms or relatively asymptomatic.

Bai, Yan, Lingsheng Yao, Tao Wei, Fei Tian, Dong-Yan Jin, Lijuan Chen, and
Meiyun Wang. “Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of COVID-19.” JAMA,
February 21, 2020.
[https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.2565](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.2565).

Guan, Wei-jie, Zheng-yi Ni, Yu Hu, Wen-hua Liang, Chun-quan Ou, Jian-xing He,
Lei Liu, et al. “Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in
China.” New England Journal of Medicine 0, no. 0 (February 28, 2020): null.
[https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032](https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032).

"Patients often presented without fever, and many did not have abnormal
radiologic findings. ... Fever was present in 43.8% of the patients on
admission but developed in 88.7% during hospitalization."

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Enginerrrd
While that's certainly true, viral load is important and this likely still
would be an effective risk reduction measure.

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benatkin
The biggest news here is that pycon still uses blogspot.

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kannan_mahi
Eagerly looking for the updates on this!

