
Autonomous Trucks and the Future of the American Trucker - lawrenceyan
http://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/driverless/
======
twblalock
Driving the trucks is the most obvious part of a trucker's job, but not the
only one. They do a lot of other important stuff:
[https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/02/wi...](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/02/will-
truckers-automated-comments.html)

> These people have local knowledge that is not easily transferable. They know
> the quirks of the routes, they have relationships with customers, they learn
> how best to navigate through certain areas, they understand how to optimize
> by splitting loads or arranging for return loads at their destination, etc.
> They also learn which customers pay promptly, which ones provide their loads
> in a way that’s easy to get on the truck, which ones generally have their
> paperwork in order, etc. Loading docks are not all equal. Some are very ad-
> hoc and require serious judgement to be able to manoever large trucks around
> them. Never underestimate the importance of local knowledge.

I would expect that even if trucks became autonomous, a lot of truckers would
survive the transition because people would still need to do a lot of that
stuff.

~~~
crazynick4
There is also the situation of a truck breaking down and needing repairs,
which can happen relatively frequently, given the amount of miles it runs
daily. Separately, how would a truck handle running out of gas if it spends
too much time stuck in slow-moving traffic? I guess they would need electric
human-operated charging stations for autonomous trucks?

~~~
tCfD
Tires blowing out are a much bigger (in terms of simple cost and the thornier
problem of schedule optimization and ability to guarantee precise delivery
times) and much more common of a problem than mechanical breakdowns. They're
also a problem that does not go away with autonomous trucks or electric motors
or anything conceivably around the corner, outside of some miraculous
development in materials science.

As such, a (somewhat) well-organized industry has developed around getting
replacement supplies like tires and other accessories to the site of a
breakdown as quickly as possible, and this would simply need to be extended to
include whatever it is autonomous trucks would require that doesn't touch the
road.

~~~
jpm_sd
Why do tires blow out? Do they have a predictable lifespan? If there is a huge
cost savings associated with autonomous driving, could some of those $$$ be
put toward more frequent tire changes that prevent blowouts from happening?

(edit) Personal injury lawyers assert that it is largely a preventative
maintenance issue:

[http://www.kennedyhodges.com/library/the-dangers-of-a-
truck-...](http://www.kennedyhodges.com/library/the-dangers-of-a-truck-tire-
blowout.cfm)

[https://braunslaw.com/library/why-catastrophic-truck-tire-
bl...](https://braunslaw.com/library/why-catastrophic-truck-tire-blowout-
crashes-occur/)

[http://www.attorneystevelee.com/library/the-dangers-and-
caus...](http://www.attorneystevelee.com/library/the-dangers-and-causes-of-
big-rig-tire-blowouts.cfm)

~~~
louden
It is much more than a lack of maintenance. The weight of the cargo, the
temperature of the road, the way the cargo is distributed in/on the trailer
and manufacture defects can all contribute to blowouts of servicable tires.
Those issues also make the lifespan of identical tires vary by thousands of
miles traveled.

While replacing tires more frequently would reduce the number of blowouts, it
would be very wasteful. In the US, DOT inspections are frequent and they look
at the tires to make sure they are in good condition.

~~~
crazynick4
It's interesting that you bring up this point because these are all aspects
that would have to be taken into consideration before autonomous highway
driving is safe for trucks, tire blowouts aside.

Most people think of driving on a highway as the simplest thing there is, but
when you have tens of thousands of pounds, sometimes unevenly loaded,
sometimes as barrels of liquid that slosh around and change your center of
gravity, all that on a stormy, windy, icy day driving in the mountains, it can
make for very uncomfortable driving. Is it solvable? I don't see why not, but
I think it might be a bit more difficult than it sounds.

~~~
SEJeff
And 9% of the fatal driving incidents with big trucks are caused by distracted
drivers betweent 2014-2016:
[https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/sites/fmcsa.dot.gov/files/docs/saf...](https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/sites/fmcsa.dot.gov/files/docs/safety/data-
and-statistics/399386/people-tbl32-2016.xls)

Interesting compilation of stats: [https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/safety/data-and-
statistics/large-t...](https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/safety/data-and-
statistics/large-truck-and-bus-crash-facts-2016)

For every single liquid load, there are likely 50 non-liquid loads that can be
better if automated. Perhaps humans only did the "dangerous" loads such as
gasoline, or barrels of oil, etc? I think this isn't so black and white, but
really is more of a shade of grey. Some things humans can do well autonomous
trucks will do poorly. Some things humans do very poorly autonomous trucks
will do very well. One of the other things is simple economics. There will
likely never be autonomous truck unions picketing for shorter hours or higher
pay. Note that I've got nothing against truckers unions, but think the sheer
economics of the issue to carriers will inevitably force the issue eventually.
The first carrier to seriously use autonomous trucking will likely be capable
of delivering products to customers for cheaper, creating an imbalance in the
industry. Every other company will be forced to compete, with a downward race
on wages.

An approach like this for coal miners in Appalachia could work:
[https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/05/06/47...](https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/05/06/477033781/from-
coal-to-code-a-new-path-for-laid-off-miners-in-kentucky)

------
thesimp
I'm by no means an expert on this, but I do follow some trucking vlogs on
youtube, but it amazes me how inefficient the loading and unloading process
is. Sometimes truckers have to waiting many hours just to get a place at a
loading dock and then again many hours just so that a dedicated team can
unload the trailer. What a waste of driver, truck, and trailer resources.

The autonomous truck will most likely happen but my prediction is that the
real revolution will be automated loading/unloading. And the automated
forklifts will unload into fully automated warehouses. And fully automated
pickers will pick orders for delivery to your doorstep via fully automated
drones. And driven from the doorstep to your fridge by a cargo roomba...

~~~
twblalock
I always thought it was odd that we standardized shipping containers and
pallets, but not truck trailers.

Shipping containers and pallets have owners, but nobody minds leaving them
behind at the point of delivery because they are interchangeable and they
circulate around.

If truckers could pull up to a loading dock, unhook the trailer and leave it
behind, and drive away with an empty trailer, that would be pretty cool.

~~~
jhayward
> _If truckers could pull up to a loading dock, unhook the trailer and leave
> it behind, and drive away with an empty trailer,_

That's called a 'hook and drop' load and they are very common. Usually used
within a large customer's trailer fleet, such as ones who have distribution
centers that then fan out to stores.

------
dmckeon
If the “Autonomous Truck Port” model becomes popular, I wonder if we will see
a highway-oriented version of the
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermodal_container](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermodal_container)
with a lower tare weight but the same twist-locks and dimensions?

This could mean that ATP-to-ATP trip segments would be done by trailers built
for containers, so load/unload operations could be automated, and
hookup/unhook of trailers to tractors would happen much less often.

Also, equipment to handle ocean port and ATP container movements would be
similar in specification.

~~~
ghaff
Not sure what you're asking for. A huge number of Intermodal containers
already travel by truck for part of their route.

~~~
dmckeon
Intermodal are built to stack 9 units high. I’m looking for a containerization
system to replace manual hook-and-drop of box trailers with an automatable
load, lock, and drive away process that has a lower tare weight penalty than
intermodal. A TEU has a tare weight of 5000 pounds, FEU is ~5500 pounds, which
is a lot to carry around if you don’t need to stack units 9 high for an ocean
trip.

~~~
mjevans
You'd probably be better off looking for an interface within an interface.

Just accept that the cost of changing from the existing 'intermodal' shipping
container as an OUTSIDE standard when on the ocean is too high.

Having a light weight inner unit, maybe something like a pallet sub-unit or
dimension-ed around being pallet compatible but expecting a long run to be
conveyed out quickly, then loaded in to something else quickly would be a
better place to begin from.

Then you'd only need to figure out a good boxing solution for THAT on an
existing trucking platform. Re-using the same intermodal locking interface for
existing trailers but with a lighter build on top could be useful,
particularly if the re-packing allows for a full container load to just go
somewhere.

However since unpacking is happening, automated pallet handling/routing might
also be a useful economic goal since there would then be an opportunity to
sort and re-pack/re-mix at the dock-side.

------
mjevans
A better solution would apply a minimum standard of living and benefits to ALL
workers - irrespective of the number of hours worked everyone should get
benefits (health, sick/vacation 'savings', unemployment) which follow a worker
and for which pro-rated jobs at least contribute a pro-rated portion.

Also, 'on call' or 'must be available' should be considered at least minimum
wage PLUS benefits idle time since the employee is being asked to be on
standby and not take other work. Schedules should also be known months in
advance so proper planning can be made.

------
comonad-colaboy
Can anybody expand on the link between autonomous car driving vs autonomous
truck driving in terms of challenges faced. If they are similar, not sure why
there is this kind of forecasting seeing how autonomous car driving is pretty
much far from over or even usable. If they are vastly different, I don't
imagine trucking is any easier than cars (maybe it is?)

~~~
rtkwe
Depends on where the truck is driving. If we restrict them to highway or
designed hubs off of highways the problem of trucks isn't much harder than
cars. When we start talking about maneuvering in smaller areas like city
streets and receiving areas at the destination it's definitely somewhat harder
just because there's so much more vehicle to handle and keep track of.

One reason to think it'll happen much quicker in trucking is because the
economic incentive is much higher for a trucking company to replace it's
drivers than for a single person to use an autonomous car.

------
a3n
> Many other freight-moving jobs will be created in their place, perhaps even
> more than will be lost, but these new jobs will be local driving and last-
> mile delivery jobs that—absent proactive public policy—will likely be
> misclassified independent contractors and have lower wages and poor working
> conditions.

I'm sure the industry would want that, but I wonder how many people are going
to go to the trouble of getting a commercial driver's license for a shit job.

Having a CDL is particularly risky, for a number of reasons. For example the
blood alcohol content necessary for a DUI is only .04 for a CDL holder, and
that's regardless if you're at work or driving your personal vehicle. It's
usually twice that in most States.

And even if you test below .04, if it's detectable at all law enforcement can
ground you for 24 hours. And that won't look good to your employer.

For most people, if they lose their license for any reason, they can still
figure out a way to get to work. But if you're making your living on your CDL,
it doesn't matter if you figure out how to get to work, because you can't
work.

Depending on your circumstances, it can be quite a lot of trouble and expense
to get a CDL. Why go through all that and take that risk, when it's just as
easy to be a helper on a roofing truck or a fast food worker.

------
SEJeff
Truck Driver is also the most common job title in more than 1/2 of the US:

[https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-...](https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-
the-most-common-job-in-every-state)

This would be devastating for some of the poorer states like say KY or MO.

~~~
jdpigeon
Hence the importance of pro-active policy measures. It'll be interesting to
see this play out in the next few years as protecting truck driver jobs with
regulations should (hopefully?) receive bipartisan support.

------
Aloha
I think the autopilot scenario listed is the most likely adoption path to
autonomous trucks in the short term. I think the proponents of this technology
are _very_ optimistic about the adoption timescale. I also see almost no
adoption in local trucking in the near future.

The platooning mechanism may see more use outside of North America, maybe in
the LTL fields here - but it would be a pretty disruptive change in the way
that freight is sent and routed compared to current use.

------
TekMol

        ...truck makers racing to build autonomous trucks.
        This trend has led to dozens of reports and news
        articles suggesting that automation could effectively
        eliminate the truck-driving profession.
    

Could you beat around the bush more then this?

'trend' 'suggesting' 'could' 'effectively'

Driving is being automated and then the truck-driving profession will be gone.

The rest of the article seems similarely bloated. With it's scenarios and
diagrams and stuff.

~~~
exhilaration
_Driving is being automated and then the truck-driving profession will be
gone._

Not for a 100 years, don't believe the self-driving hype. That's what the rest
of the article is about, the long distance highway truck driving jobs will
(mostly) disappear but there's going to be a ton of city truck driving jobs
that are likely to remain the domain of humans for decades to come.

~~~
dsfyu404ed
>but there's going to be a ton of city truck driving jobs that are likely to
remain the domain of humans for decades to come.

This. Someone has to wheel around that pallet jack loaded with beer. Someone
has to hand the clipboard and pen to the person signing for the delivery.
Someone has to tarp the load.

At some point the tech will get good enough, a switch will flip and meat based
steering wheel holders sitting in front of dry vans on interstate highways
will be replaced with semiconductor based steering wheel holders.

Everything else will change much more slowly.

------
nopinsight
Would technicians, construction/renovation workers, and the likes be good
alternative career paths for the current truck drivers?

If so, there should be policy support/subsidy to help train those who wish to
shift to these options which, to my knowledge, pay pretty well and will
continue to be in demand for the foreseeable future (little automation is
likely, given the limits of current technology.)

~~~
vlehto
You don't get many good carpenters out of unemployed truck drivers. Good
carpenters are born to be good carpenters.

That's the problem with most difficult to automate jobs that don't require
college degree. They sound like anybody could do it. But there is huge
difference between good renovation and bad renovation. The kind of guy who can
do good job consistently is rare. The job requires passion and good attitude
and personality that matches the job.

It's kinda sad how many men are passionate about driving a car. It's bit like
how many women used to be passionate about weaving.

~~~
nopinsight
Since the US might need to build over a million affordable housing units to
address its homeless problems, ‘newbie’ builders, carpenters, and other
technicians might help to reduce the unit budget requirements to a level which
a large quantity could be built within a realistic fiscal constraint.

Artisan carpenters/master technicians would still be in high demand but those
transitioned to the new careers would serve a different market and needs.

------
newnewpdro
Keep the truck drivers, use the autonomous features to drive while they rest.

