
Coronavirus ‘Hits All the Hot Buttons’ for How We Misjudge Risk - johnny313
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/world/asia/coronavirus-risk-interpreter.html
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crmrc114
Really? Another "Its just a flu bro" article? \- yes its not the end of the
world. But the death toll is already higher than the flu. We are already
trending worse than the 09 Swine Flu. No, its not the end of the world. Yes,
this is something we need to take caution to contain to keep it under control.

If you think the numbers we are getting from the CCP are accurate then I think
I have a bridge to sell you.

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tim333
Yeah. It's definitely true people misjudge risk but it works both ways.
Airliners - people worry because the see a scary crash but run the numbers and
it's pretty safe. Cornoavirus people think it's not a big deal because it's
like flu but run the numbers and there's some potentially scary shit eg.
[https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8005931/British-
sci...](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8005931/British-scientist-
leading-coronavirus-fight-says-forecasts-400-000-UK-deaths.html)

I mean on the pessimistic side 50% global infection with 1% mortality, while
not probable is a possibility to watch for, which would be like 35 million
deaths and about 300 million critical overloading the hospitals.

And while I guess those sort of numbers die through old age anyway, the
situation in Wuhan is not pretty and worth trying to avoid.

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koheripbal
If that many people try to get critical care at the hospital, the death toll
is going to be much higher than 1%.

There aren't enough mechanical ventilators for even 0.001% of the population.

