
I’m Going Long Right Now - jasonlbaptiste
http://blogmaverick.com/2008/10/08/im-going-long-right-now/
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JoelSutherland
This seems much less organized than a typical Cuban post.

Most disappointingly, he didn't give any supporting thoughts on his most
interesting opinion:

"All that said. The stock market can humble me or anyone in a nano second. It
could go a lot lower. I DO NOT SEE IT GOING DRAMATICALLY HIGHER. NO CHANCE IT
GETS BACK TO 11k anytime soon."

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beaudeal
6 months ago when I put 90% of my savings into CDs, people around me told me I
was playing it too safe...let me tell you, right now I am one happy person.

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newaccountname
You should have put it all into the highest yielding (and thus riskiest) money
market accounts. The government ended up giving them the same coverage as your
CDs (not that you could have known that would happen...).

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tocomment
He recommends CDs but I've always wondered about bonds. Here are the questions
I have:

Are there reasonably safe bonds that pay say 6-9%?

What's the probability of a grade B bond defaulting in a given year?

Where does one buy bonds, just through an Etrade account? What do you do if
you don't get paid the interest?

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ojbyrne
Two days ago Jim Cramer said "sell everything." I can think of no better buy
signal.

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LPTS
I remember when Jim Cramer was saying "Bear Stearns is fine. These people who
say Bear Stearns is failing are crazy." and then Bear Stearns crashed 10
minutes later.

I wish I could fuck up as bad as Jim Cramer does all the time and still have
people take me seriously.

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steveplace
You have to remember he's in the entertainment industry, and not the finance
industry.

Anyone who trades based off his ideas can go ahead and write me a check.

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mynameishere
_Why ? Because there are some good companies, in good businesses where I think
the dividend is safe, and 6pct , plust hopefully future dividend increases is
a good thing._

I hope he wasn't that drunk when he put his money down.

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steveplace
We've probably hit an intermediate term capitulative low here.

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kingkongrevenge
His advice that the average person should not speculate in equities is sound,
but he kind of ignores the fact that if you're 100% CDs you're a currency
speculator. You're betting on the dollar and the US banking system. There is
no true safe haven.

The more history I experience the more sense Harry Browne's old "Permanent
Portfolio" makes. He said (if I recall correctly): A third equity indexes, a
third bonds (weighted sovereign), a third gold, and make sure a third of the
whole mix is not only internationally diversified but actually outside the
control of your government. Rebalance once a year.

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eru
How about substitution of real estate for gold? Real estate might not be en
vogue right now - but at least you can grow food on a farm.

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kingkongrevenge
Owning real estate is more like taking on a part time job than a passive
investment.

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netcan
Which is why it's attractive to middle income investors.

Apart from the fact that they can make big bold moves like leverage 10/1,
control an asset worth 5X their yearly income, etc.

But a bigger reason is that it gives them a way of relatively easily combining
time & money investments without giving up their normal income.

