
The Everything Bubble Is Ready to Pop - romanhn
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/editorial/infographic-the-everything-bubble-is-ready-to-pop
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csomar
What if it is just the USD losing value against assets? You know, inflation
not reported correctly.

If "everything" is bubbling, then relatively speaking prices are the same.

~~~
psyc
This is exactly the first thing that occurred to me, but I'm far from an
economist. It does seem that if literally everything was in a bubble, that
would be equivalent to the dollar having less value. It would be wildly out of
line with CPI inflation, and I'm not sure what that means. Perhaps consumer
goods have just become very cheap.

Alternatively, maybe "everything bubble" means a very high amount of capital
investment.

~~~
csomar
I don't think consumer goods are getting cheaper. The iPhone is getting more
and more expensive (even not counting the iPhone X price bump).

But should consumer goods (food/small items) be small in developed economies?
Things like Rent, Transport (Car/Travel), Health Care, etc... should weigh
more.

Wait, these are all getting expensive or am I wrong?

~~~
majewsky
> I don't think consumer goods are getting cheaper. The iPhone is getting more
> and more expensive (even not counting the iPhone X price bump).

Oh please. What about food? Fuel/energy? Insurance? Clothing? Any single one
of these budgets is bigger for probably all of us than our smartphone budget.

As for myself, all of the above budgets (except for fuel/energy maybe) have
gotten slightly _cheaper_ in recent years. (I live in Germany.) And that
includes smartphones; the average smartphone is lasting longer and getting
cheaper unless you're looking at the flagships whose price is driven entirely
by market segmentation.

~~~
csomar
Interesting observation given that I had fuel/energy get cheaper while the
rest not. So it certainly depends on location.

But the point of measuring inflation is to have a specific thing/standard and
match it with other years. It would not be fair to say phones got cheaper
because you got your new Android-Samsung-Clone from China.

When you say clothing got cheaper, is it the same brand/item/time of the
season. Your insurance got cheaper? Is it because you didn't have accidents
and you got upgraded?

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freedomben
There's a really interesting book called "Fed Up" written by Danielle
DiMartino Booth, who worked inside the Fed for a number of years during the
last popping of a bubble.

[https://smile.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-
Reserve/dp/...](https://smile.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-
Reserve/dp/0735211655?sa-no-redirect=1)

She's done a number of interviews on podcasts as well. This one was decent:
[http://www.jasonstapleton.com/571-author-danielle-
dimartino-...](http://www.jasonstapleton.com/571-author-danielle-dimartino-
booth-and-her-book-fed-up/)

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sushisource
How can there be an "index" bubble like at the bottom of the infographic. Who
cares how the funds are invested? It's this exactly equivalent to saying
there's a general stock market bubble, which he says earlier? Why does it
matter if a large part of that money is being invested by index funds?

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rednerrus
You can't loan people huge sums of money with no interest and expect bubbles
not to arise.

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filereaper
This infographic was seen recently, previous HN conversation here:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15364537](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15364537)

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goodoldboys
The housing bubble part of the infographic made me laugh. Saying we’re in
another housing bubble because prices have risen dramatically since the bottom
of the last crash is laughable. We may very well be, but those numbers are
more indicative of a recovery not a bubble, imo. In a lot of markets the
median prices still are below what they were at the peak of the bubble 10
years ago, not even factoring in inflation.

We’re probably due for a correction but not related to real estate, though
home prices would certainly be affected.

~~~
Boxbot
If housing prices were indeed inflated then there's little difference between
a "recovery" and the bubble inflating again (assuming prices didn't crash to
something well below reasonable value).

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randomfinn
Two quotes from his newsletter:

> Passive investing is all the rage. Buy SPY, make regular contributions,
> retire. That’s today’s wisdom, and it’s completely wrong.

> Think like Warren Buffett for a second

I don't know what he's trying to sell, but I wouldn't take any financial
advice from him.

~~~
greenyoda
> Think like Warren Buffett for a second

Buffet is actually a fan of S&P 500 index funds, such as SPY:

 _Buffett wins $1M decade-old bet that the S &P500 would outperform
hedgefunds_

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15268726](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15268726)

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trebor
Are there any other sources corroborating this?

~~~
jacquesc
I think it's just a prediction. There's always people predicting a downturn
when things are frothy in the stock market. Inevitably someone gets it right
and looks like a genius when things crash.

~~~
trebor
Well, normal markets have a sawtooth growth pattern. It's only a matter of
time till each of the discussed markets reaches bubble-proportions, then pops.
History proves that with both the stock/real-estate markets. But I haven't
heard anyone else predicting 5 simultaneous bubbles like this.

