
Mark Zuckerberg on the next 10 years of Facebook - jrbedard
http://www.theverge.com/a/mark-zuckerberg-future-of-facebook
======
firasd
On Free Basics: _" We’ve learned a lot about how we need to interact with
governments and the political system and regulators, and build support in
order to have these things work. And I think we’ll take those lessons forward
on the future work we’re doing in Free Basics, which by the way is continuing
to roll out around the world. One day, once we’ve shown that it’s a successful
program around the world, I hope that we’ll get another chance to come back to
India and offer it there, too._"

Come on, Mark... your stubbornness sometimes works well in making product
decisions, but isn't working well in this strategic context. Free Basics
rolled out in all these other countries by interacting with 'the political
system', regulators, governments (not to mention telecoms.) But it was
grassroots activists who stopped you in India. And you still haven't learned
that what we want is not better management of regulators, but net neutrality.
It blows my mind.

It is exhausting enough to have to oppose telecom networks and other
industries in their efforts to turn the Internet into Cable TV (by creating
different tiers and segments of the internet), and meanwhile every few months
Mark wants to lunge into the conversation with this nonsense. Facebook should
be helping preserve net neutrality worldwide, not putting their energy and
resources into undermining it.

India wants the same Internet that Mark used to create Facebook in his Harvard
dorm room. Accept nothing less.

~~~
blowski
While I want them to, I don't know why they should. What's in it for them?

~~~
firasd
Most U.S. tech companies were strong proponents of the FCC's net neutrality
regulations because they don't want telecom networks to intervene between them
and their users by segmenting access based on pricing or speed. Although it
seems once you are as successful as Facebook (and now, Netflix) you start
thinking less of "what if the ISP wants to rip me off by differentiating
access to my app?" and more like "how can I partner with the ISP to get an
advantage by differentiating access to my app?"

~~~
badlucklottery
They gotta pull that ladder up behind them. If they don't they might actually
have to innovate and compete in the future.

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smokeyj
Something about Zuck just seems inauthentic and robotic. Maybe the style of
writing makes it sound like a sponsored PR piece, or maybe it's the incessant
corporate speak. I suspect the reality is Zuck is a strong CEO and weak
innovator. Facebook is established and boring, and now all that's left is to
entrench the world with proprietary Zuckernet. I strongly suspect Zuck will
become the characterized depiction of the robber baron, but that's just my
unfounded prediction.

~~~
elorant
I believe the problem with Mark lies in the fact that to many of us he hasn’t
build anything substantial. Sure, from a technical point of view Facebook is
spectacular. Other than that it’s a boring place adding no value whatsoever to
the Internet. There’s nothing innovative about it. He’s isn’t solving any kind
of problem. Compared to other giants of our industry he seems dull and
irrelevant. And so does his vision.

~~~
vecter
Facebook adds "no value whatsoever"? One billion people every day would
disagree with you.

Facebook is the primary method that billions of people across the world use to
stay in touch with family and friends. It's one of the most important pieces
of my life and something I come back to almost every single day.

And no, I've never worked there nor will I ever. I don't own a single share of
FB stock. I'm just a user who appreciates the value of what he uses, or at the
very least, can appreciate the value that other people get out of a product
that I myself may never use.

~~~
na85
>It's one of the most important pieces of my life

Reading this made me sad.

~~~
vecter
Why does that make you sad

~~~
erikbigelow
Cause it's just a tool. A tool that promotes laziness in communication and
personal contact. All for the low low cost of all your privacy so they can
sell you to whoever. It's a convenient tool though

~~~
mpbm
The point of tools is literally to enable laziness. Feel free to go back to
the telegraph if you really want to work harder.

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n72
Spread FB to everyone so he can deliver news in headlines absent of nuance
with the effect of reinforcing existing held beliefs, strengthening conspiracy
theories, and increasing polarization and radicalism. Thanks Mark! Glad your
hot or not prank worked out so well for you.

~~~
JayHost
Is facebook really not just an extension of Hot or Not.

It started as a place for dudes to see if girls had boyfriends. Now, it's all
about using people's baby pictures to sell advertisements.

I don't know why women would want to use a service that is so inherently anti-
woman.

------
uptown
I'm curious what others think about the vision for a more-connected world.
While I think the positives far outweigh the negatives in abstract, I wonder
if the relatively segregated and disconnected civilizations we've built until
now are equipped to deal with the complexities of a more-connected world.
Cultural differences, religious differences, ethical differences, etc. are all
potential points of friction when you begin connecting groups that had
previously been separated by geography but can now interface with one-another.
I think Mark's vision for a more-connected world is inevitable -- arguably,
it's something that's been happening for all time, albeit perhaps not at the
pace we see today, as digital connectivity provides the ability to connect
distant groups far easier than physical connectivity ever allowed. I just hope
the outcome is a net positive for humanity.

~~~
davidivadavid
What I'm curious to see is if anyone is going to take the opposite end of that
bet: Facebook's "openness"/"World is flat"/"End of history" vs. decentralized,
tribal, anonymized, balkanized social networks.

As Facebook keeps accumulating users, and as users accumulate "friends", the
SNR decreases and makes the product experience less valuable, notwithstanding
the efforts they make to "optimize" the feed. Mine is mostly filled with
things I'd rather never see.

Facebook is a social network that mostly reproduces geographic social
networks, but that doesn't connect people based on affinities. The people
discovery mechanism is close to non-existent. People in your Facebook
neighbourhood are people who most likely live in your current, past, or "work"
neighbourhood.

Are there any social networks that try to dynamically create
communities/"neighbourhoods" based on behavior? (e.g. upvote a post and you
get "closer" to the poster, with symmetric behavior for downvoting, and second
order effects propagating to other users based on their own upvote/downvote of
said post).

Apologies if that's too vague, I'm thinking out loud here.

~~~
sheac
The only systems that readily comes to mind is Reddit.

It's amazing how you can wind up on a subreddit and realise that you're
nowhere near the bottom of the rabbit hole that you've been calling a hobby
for the past n years.

I don't know if this qualifies for what you're after, though, because these
communities are:

* based on users actively seeking out forums based on what they consider themselves to be interested in, and

* each community is centred around a single topic. There might be a subreddit for people who love Fraggles and a subreddit for people who love pop-tarts, but no subreddit for people who love both Fraggles and pop-tarts.

~~~
davidivadavid
Reddit does have the affinity thing, but as you point out, it's not nearly as
granular as it could be.

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bedhead
Of all the household name tech leaders (Brin, Bezos, Musk, Jobs, etc),
Zuckerberg really does strike me as the least substantial and most likely to
be inauthentic. Obviously this is just a personal opinion but Facebook seems
so laughably inconsequential compared to all of the companies that have made
these other founders rich and famous. Apple invents incredible stuff. Google
has organized the world's information in astounding ways. Musk is trying to
change how energy is consumed (clown show aside). Facebook sells ads based on
viral videos of cats falling off furniture and provides yet another forum for
people to showcase their own vanity. It's not surprising to me that this is a
guy who right before Facebook, created a website to compete with "Hot or Not".

~~~
mpbm
You're underestimating how highly people value their own vanity. All Narcissus
needed was a puddle.

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johansch
The contrast to Elon Musk's plan is so striking.

Musk is trying to fix global climate change, avoid the 1 million+ yearly
traffic deaths and secure the future of the human race in case there is a
planetary-size disaster.

Zuck just wants more more users, "engagement" and in the end - opportunities
for monetization.

~~~
tcoppi
Google wants to organize the world's information. Elon wants to go to Mars,
reduce carbon emissions, save lives and increase efficiency with self-driving
cars. Zuckerberg wants more users and for us to sit in VR pods like zombies.

~~~
cryptoz
> Zuckerberg wants more users and for us to sit in VR pods like zombies.

[http://blogs-
images.forbes.com/parmyolson/files/2016/02/1271...](http://blogs-
images.forbes.com/parmyolson/files/2016/02/12719113_10102665120179591_3471165635858509622_o-1200x799.jpg)

He just looks so happy with his zombie army.

~~~
unfunco
My gosh, that is terrifying.

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JustSomeNobody
I'm not entirely convinced FB will exist in any significant form in 10 years.

~~~
Yhippa
Why do you think that? I'm trying hard to think of something that would make
it go the way of Friendster.

~~~
gooseus
I had an idea the other day of creating a three-fold informational website.

1\. How to backup your Facebook content and delete your account.

2\. How to use non-Facebook services to share photos, organize events and talk
to friends.

3\. How to open an online trading account and purchase PUT options against FB.

In my delusion of grandeur I imagined this site going viral with the idea that
if a critical mass of users decided to follow through on those steps then
Facebook's network effect and user base would crumble and their stock price
would plummet.

All that lost stock value would flow directly into the hands of the users that
went through step 3... a legitimate capitalistic redistribution of wealth and
a new opportunity for the world to define social networking is done.

I still kind of have stars in my eyes when I talk about it.

~~~
RodgerTheGreat
I think the biggest challenge in doing something like this and making an
impact is a call to action.

Some users strongly dislike Facebook and already have the motivation necessary
to execute on something like this if you made the process easy. I suspect,
however, that most Facebook users are either indifferent or genuinely enjoy
the service, and it will be difficult to convince these people they should
cease using Facebook. Citing privacy concerns or some of Facebook's well-
publicized unethical behavior seems to me like it would mainly preach to the
choir.

So how do you sell this?

~~~
gooseus
Yeah, it's definitely not an easy sell and would require the right
presentation, but I think there is a strong undercurrent of fatigue and
discontent with Facebook that can be tapped into with the right message.

I think that message could energize and wake up a decent number of people and
if this generated momentum then it'd feed into itself.

The fact that a measurable decrease in users could create a panic in stock
price that can be profited from directly is another selling point. I'm not
well-versed in investment instruments, but I do believe that spending $100 on
PUT options before even a 10% drop in stock price would pay off quite
handsomely.

I mean, you may like Facebook... but it's not like you couldn't create a fresh
account after you make a little money, right? How much money have they
profited from sharing your personal information? Every large company can
benefit from a reality check...

Dunno if that message would play to more loyal users, but my mental
cost/benefit analysis for this idea seems pretty favorable.

~~~
RodgerTheGreat
I think for the average consumer the idea of purchasing stock on a whim, let
alone shorting a stock, is an alien and uninvitingly risky act. A site that
asks me to follow some instructions to spend $100 to help bring down big F
would send off all kinds of mental alarm bells. There could be money to be
made, but I think profiting from Facebook's loss muddies the issue.

~~~
gooseus
True, but like you said, most of the ethical arguments against Facebook are
preaching to the choir. Sad as it is, money (even the chance of it) typically
motivates more effectively than ethics.

I think if there are enough people willing to go through a convoluted process
to help a Nigerian prince that it becomes a meme, then there are plenty of
people who would be willing to go through the perfectly legitimate process of
opening an E-Trade or Charles-Schwabb account and buying PUT options.
Everything on the site would be verifiable by any financial advisor, though
they may not understand/agree with the overall strategy.

And really this is just my personal musings, I have plenty of my own doubts
otherwise I would be building this site and not openly sharing and commenting
about it on HN.

... Of course, if some people here did think it was viable I wouldn't take
much convincing to start putting it together...

------
Mendenhall
Facebook to me just looks like a service that wants to build as big of a
walled garden as it can and then feed the inhabitants whatever it wants to
further its agenda. Then they just speak of it in terms of "helping" everyone.

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mtgx
If he actually going to deliver "Internet access" with those drones, or is
this another one of his shenanigans trying to force-feed people Facebook as
the "Internet" in poor countries?

~~~
samsonradu
Not sure why you were downvoted. I think for the average, uneducated internet
consumer facebook is kind of becoming a one-stop shop.

~~~
chrisdbaldwin
Exactly, and I've started to look at the bright side of Facebook's
"centralization" of the internet: it allows niche communities (like Hacker
News) that aren't mainstream to thrive again. The end of the Eternal
September.

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perseusprime11
I am not able to buy into his 10 year vision without feeling like things are
getting muddled between charity and FB's business model.

------
cityzen
Nothing is free, not even the free internet you get from that massive, public,
for-profit advertising platform called Facebook.

------
tracker1
Prodigy Online - Facebook 2026 Edition.

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markwaldron
Good to see two of the more influential CEO's having globally positive 10 year
plans.

~~~
JustSomeNobody
Is Zuckerberg really all that influential?

Or are people just wiping his bottom because he happens to be making money
(for now)?

~~~
adrianlmm
>Is Zuckerberg really all that influential?

Yes.

