
Does China’s J-20 rival other stealth fighters? - protomyth
https://chinapower.csis.org/china-chengdu-j-20/
======
pravda
I look forward to the day when China will supply the USA with jet fighters. We
will save so much money!

~~~
greydius
That is not likely to ever happen. Defense spending in the US is mainly
welfare for US defense contractors.

~~~
Gravityloss
But you can pay them to slap a sticker on it.

------
sanjeetsuhag
For anyone interested in the rise of the Chinese military, I'd recommend you
read the Department of Defense report to Congress on 'Military and Security
Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2017':

[https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_...](https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF)

------
olympus
Some comments about the article and Chinese fighter development- some of these
points mentioned in the article but glossed over, some are implied but not
mentioned, and some completely absent:

1\. Stealth for fighters isn't about keeping the enemy from seeing you
entirely. That went away a long time ago. Stealth helps your survivability by
making it take a little longer for you to be seen. If you can see the enemy
from 50 miles away, but they can't see you until 20 miles away then you have a
huge advantage in being able to launch a missile first.

2\. Stealth is not just about RF, it's about visual and thermal cues too. The
latest generation of missiles are going to multi-mode seekers (RF + IR is one
possibility) so you need stealth in multiple domains to be effective.

3\. RF stealth can only be optimized for one band. So you might design your
coatings and structures to work against X-band (10GHz-ish) but be effectively
4th-gen non-stealth against early warning recievers that operate in the MHz
range and against short range radar in the Ka-band (40 GHz-ish). This is why
point 1 has become the way it is. The enemy will know you're there.

4\. China is great at some areas, and laughably bad at others. They haven't
put the WS-15 engine on the J-20 yet because they don't know how to make it
right. They are currently spending tons of money on researching metallurgy so
they can catch up with the rest of the developed world. It's funny that they
can develop their own advanced radar and jammers but they still have to buy
all their engines from Russia.

5\. Good missiles are a huge component in survivability- a long range missile
with lock on after launch capability can be fired in "the general direction"
of a target without you having to have your own lock on them. This is good if
you have an X-band radar on your jet but can get cues from a surveillance
radar in another band, and your missile seeker is also in another band. This
means your weak point that the enemy stealth was optimized for is covered by
the strengths of your other air power. China makes great missiles.

6\. Command, Control, and Communication (and Cyber, Intelligence,
Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) play a huge part in a major air battle. It's
not just a bunch of individuals trying to get their guy, but a coordinated
strategy. China is especially dependent on control and communication, since
their pilots are trained to follow orders from the ground. You need jam-
resistant communications for this. China is great with RF stuff.

7\. The article claims jets like the J-11 are 3rd gen equivalent and J-20 are
4th gen equivalent. This is almost surely an intentional downgrade because if
this D.C. based think tank revealed what they actually thought it might hint
that they know more about these jets than they want to. Calling a J-11 a 3rd
gen is laughable. The latest J-11B is basically 4.5 gen. It can match or even
outperform a fully upgraded F-15C in many areas. While it may not be better
overall than a F-15C, it is at least 4th gen, call it 4.25 gen to a new
F-15C's 4.5 gen. The same goes for the J-20, it is clearly better than 4th
gen, call it 4.9 gen to the F-22's 5th gen.

8\. While a J-20 might not match a F-22 one-on-one, if they can make the J-20
en masse, they will present a serious threat to the F-22. We only built 187
F-22s, haven't fully upgraded all of them (some don't need upgrading since
they are only used for training), have crashed a few, and cannabalized others
for parts. We'd be lucky to get 100 fully upgraded F-22s to a fight. We're
hoping that we can make enough F-35s to cover that small number, but China is
making the J-31 to counter.

In conclusion- Does China's J-20 rival other stealth fighters? Yes. Maybe they
aren't fully competing in the stealth category, but you should be afraid of it
because it has other strengths.

Edit: Danm, I almost forgot about electronic warfare (EW). Another alternative
to stealth is jamming the other guy's ears off. It makes you vulnerable to
anti-radiation missiles, but missile launch detection and a good on/off switch
makes jamming a great self-protection scheme. Coherent distributed jamming is
on the horizon, possibly to the point of fooling anti radiation missiles.
China's pretty good at EW, just like they are at radar and communication
stuff. The next all out war where developed countries throw all of their
technology at each other is going to suck.

~~~
justicezyx
> China is especially dependent on control and communication, since their
> pilots are trained to follow orders from the ground.

Not sure where this idea comes from. Air combat cannot be commanded. Or you
mean something else.

> The article claims jets like the J-11 are 3rd gen equivalent and J-20 are
> 4th gen equivalent.

US has 4-gen division, Russia uses 5 gen division. China uses the same
categorization as US, so J20 is 4th-gen, j-11 is gen 3.

Russian and India likes to use the 5-gen categorization, to some extent, that
makes Russian fighters looks nicer.

[edit] The article actually use 5-gen categorization but list j-11 as gen 3...
I have no idea how these people still have their jobs...

~~~
olympus
> Not sure where this idea comes from. Air combat cannot be commanded. Or you
> mean something else.

Obviously nobody commands the entire fight since the enemy also gets a say in
what happens.

What I meant is that Chinese pilots are trained to take direction from ground
controllers that are looking at the integrated air picture from all of their
surveillance systems. It's called ground controlled intercept (GCI). China and
the former Soviet Union countries are heavily reliant on GCI. The idea is that
the pilot is busy flying the plane and can't see the integrated picture in the
cockpit, so a person on the ground that can see the full picture and isn't
distracted by flying can make better tactical decisions about which targets to
engage, when to shoot, and when to go out (turn away). A Chinese pilot hears
on the radio "Callsign, turn to heading 170, Mach 0.9, target 5 miles" and
doesn't know what else is going on around him. The GCI style gets severely
degraded when communications go down, because the pilots lose the guidance in
their ear.

The comparison is that western pilots are told what the air picture looks like
and then the formation commander decides who to target. Western pilots hear
"Hostiles at x position, y position, and z position" and then mutually decide
who each person is going to target based on contracts (they pre-decided on the
ground that #1 and #2 in formation get the northern target and #3 and #4 get
the southern target, whoever is done first gets the trailing target) and then
listening to the formation commander to catch any mistakes. It's complicated
for the pilots but works better when communications go down.

~~~
Teever
It seems like the Chinese/Russian technique would work better over their own
territory and therefore implies that it's a technique developed from a
defensive strategy.

Is this a reasonable characterization?

------
orb_yt
Fun little note: The afterburning turbofan engines used in this aircraft are
supposedly similar in performance to the P&W F119 engines used in the Raptor.
The company behind the engine is/was working on a high bypass version which
aims to power the Y-20 [1]

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi%27an_Y-20](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi%27an_Y-20)

~~~
seanmcdirmid
There is speculation that those are still in the prototype stage and the
current ones are running on Russian Saturns. China is still catching up in
turbofans that have sufficient power and reliability (they can get one or the
other, but not both ATM).

~~~
jacquesm
They should team up with Renault.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
High performance turbofans and modern semiconductors are the most closely kept
technologies in the west and Russia. You can’t easily reverse engineer them
from end products, they are all about process. It’s reasonable that these are
the last technologies left for China to master.

Partnerships are out of the question.

------
smallstepforman
Speaking of modern jet fighters, here us a scary Fly-by of Su35 beside Su30 in
Syria (couple of days ago), at full speed meters apart:

[https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SlNyL9jxRP0](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SlNyL9jxRP0)

~~~
King-Aaron
Is the POV from the pilot of the 30 or the 35?

------
waiseristy
The real gold is the article linked halfway through

[http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-2011-03.html](http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-2011-03.html)

~~~
mr_spothawk
> This study has therefore established through Physical Optics simulation
> across nine radio-frequency bands, that no fundamental obstacles exist in
> the shaping design of the J-20 prototype precluding its development into a
> genuine Very Low Observable design.

~~~
waiseristy
Well I read that 3 or 4 times and still don't understand it, but the pictures
sure are pretty!

~~~
olympus
They turned all the pictures we have of the prototypes into a 3D model and ran
radar simulations on it. They concluded that China has developed an actual
stealth plane and not just one that looks pretty.

As opposed to the "stealth" plane that Iran unveiled a few years back that
doesn't fly and isn't shaped right. They were just imitating shapes they had
seen before and didn't put it together right.

------
Gravityloss
There are a lot of words but not much hard content. Less stealthy (especially
from the rear), more internal volume compared to the F-22.

Only about 11 produced so far.

------
Top19
I appreciate your post.

For those wondering, China is the place where companies across the world are
going to hide slave labor and incredible environmental devastation.

That is why their prices are so cheap and 6 million manufacturing jobs have
been lost. Slave labor and the greatest destruction of environment the world
has ever seen.

~~~
fabrice_d
Sure, but I'm not convinced that the crazy price of programs like the F-35 is
due to being environmentally responsible and respectful of labor rights. If
the US want to compete they also need to improve.

~~~
uncoder0
How many carrier strike groups can china deploy? How much power can they
project 3,000 miles from home? Is the answer none? why yes it most likely
is...

~~~
b0rsuk
China doesn't need to. It only needs to threaten Taiwan, Korea, Japan and
other US allies in the region. Then they will switch alliances.

~~~
hyperdunc
It's more likely they'll further militarize.

------
alexasmyths
A) Are we sure it even flies?

B) Do they have the very nuanced tech to handle the complexities of stealth?

C) Most important: it's a team, not a pilot. What makes US Air Power so
effective is the coordination, and multi-role availability etc. AWACS,
communications, meshed fighter groups, all sorts of strike packages from
cruise missiles to drones etc.. So when you need to go in stealth and do the
AA + Comms network, you can do that. When you need low-air with some jamming
support etc. you can do that. When you need to hit something way past the
horizon you can do that. When you want to linger forever you can re-fuel and
do that.

Hopefully it will never matter, but the ability to project power makes a
difference, even if it's not used.

Time to get some good gear into India ...

~~~
King-Aaron
a) yes

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_CK3N8mOXs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_CK3N8mOXs)

b ) you can probably assume, considering the vast tech industry in China, that
if they haven't yet they will soon.

c) Why would you assume their operational and strategic capabilities are
lacking in these areas? The Chinese have a very capable armed forces

[https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-
de...](https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-
detail.asp?country_id=china)

[https://www.lowyinstitute.org/issues/chinese-
military](https://www.lowyinstitute.org/issues/chinese-military)

~~~
alexasmyths
a) Just because you show a video of an airframe in the air, does not remotely
mean that the Jet specified, with all it's gear, is flying and operable.

b) No - stealth for jets is a very, very specific thing with lots of nuance
that has no civilian counterpart. What 'tech' does China make that surpasses
most of the world? Almost none. The article today about their car factories:
all Swedish and Swiss robots. So they're not even at that stage. Same thing
with Engines - a very key component that most nations do not seem to be able
to do on their own. Apparently the new US F series have surfaces tweaked down
to the mm, bigger than that, it's not stealthy. And it requires a lot of
specialized maintenance.

c) The Chinese have no experience whatsoever operating in the kinds of systems
that the US has. Those things take experience and time to develop. Can the
Chinese AF effectively deploy drones 1/2 way around the world now? That's not
'one tech' \- that's a whole pile of tech and operational abilities rolled
into one. And that's just drones. How many re-fuellers do they have ready? How
many Aircraft carriers (really, 0). How many forward stations can they deploy
to in an instant?

No, as far as they have come along the last 20 years, this is one area they
are going to be quite far behind in, for still some time yet. I roughly say
they are about where they are with their aircraft carrier.

~~~
justicezyx
> a) Just because you show a video of an airframe in the air, does not
> remotely mean that the Jet specified, with all it's gear, is flying and
> operable.

So it acutally cannot fly, that's what you are saying.

> What 'tech' does China make that surpasses most of the world? Almost none.

China tech is among the world's most advanced. Let's not confuse being the
absolute #1 with just being advanced.

> c) The Chinese have no experience whatsoever operating in the kinds of
> systems that the US has.

"had" They used to have a despicable internet economy, look at what they are
doing now.

~~~
alexasmyths
a) I'm not saying one way or the other, I'm saying we don't really have lot of
info on what it actually is and does.

b) China is not among the world's most advanced in the series of technical
bits necessary for this: stealth, jet aircraft engine, weapons systems,
underlying operational capabilities.

c) China hasn't dropped live munitions on an actual target in what, decades?
Do they have a single AFB out of their borders? Do they have an operable
aircraft carrier? Do they interoperate with dozens of other nations? Have they
flown actual stealth missions?

You have to do all of that to get good at it.

I will be a long while.

~~~
olympus
The stance you're taking is one that is dangerous. China has a billion people
and a lot of really smart ones.

a) The J-20 does fly, but it isn't fully operational. But functioning
prototypes do exist and have fired missiles. If you aren't satisfied with
pictures and videos I guess you'll just have to join the PLAAF and become a
pilot yourself.

b) China may bad at engine construction and lag in stealth, but they are world
class at designing weapons and their operational ability. The PL-12 and
upcoming PL-15 are extremely advanced and their integrated air defense is
seriously good.

c) China has drops live munitions on regular occasion. They do it during
training and during weapons development. Just because the US and Russia are
dropping bombs in Syria doesn't mean they are getting good practice out of it.
China's aerospace development is far beyond their aircraft carrier
development. Don't think that just because they can't project power across the
globe that they are impotent. The ability to operate carriers and resupply
underway is exclusive to the USA. Literally every other country has to stop at
a friendly port to resupply. China threatens plenty of countries within its
range.

The thing about war with China is that it's asymmetric, so they don't have to
be as good as the USA to cause problems. If China attacks Taiwan (a commonly
hypothesized scenario) they have a huge home team advantage while the USA has
to drag everything halfway across the world. The USA can't rest because as
soon as they are close enough to defend Taiwan they are under 24/7 threat from
Chinese subs, ships, cruise missiles, and planes. China gets to use 100% of
it's military for that fight, and the USA cannot use 100% because of the long
logistical tail.

~~~
alexasmyths
"China has a billion people and a lot of really smart ones."

So does India. So does Africa.

1) "But functioning prototypes do exist and have fired missiles." I agree, but
what do those prototypes actually do? Is the real question.

2) " they are world class at designing weapons and their operational ability."
\- how many real targets have they hit i the last decade? I'm sure they are
smart. But not even the Chinese know how their gear will work in the field.

3) "China has drops live munitions on regular occasion. They do it during
training and during weapons development. Just because the US and Russia are
dropping bombs in Syria doesn't mean they are getting good practice out of it.
"

Uhh, yes - it does. And when I'm referring to 'dropping munitions' \- I'm
referring to the massive machine of operations support and tech that underlie
'the dropping of those bombs'.

Do they have the forward air controllers? Are they good? If not - Air Force is
severely hampered. Do they have the AWACS capabilities - or will their entire
AF be rendered useless in the blink of an eye by e-warfare. The list goes on
and on.

