
Show HN: 2020 Presidential Forecast – 65.2% Biden win probability - plural_vote_
https://www.pluralvote.com/article/2020-forecast/
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ignoranceprior
Interesting, since prediction markets only give that outcome a 41% probability
of happening:

[https://www.electionbettingodds.com](https://www.electionbettingodds.com)

I wonder what could explain the discrepancy. This also implies that if you
believe the 65% prediction, you could make some money (in expectation) by
buying Yes shares for Biden on PredictIt.

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morninglight
OK, but haven't we heard this before?

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6Oczyk6nCw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6Oczyk6nCw)
.

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m0zg
That sort of means a huge Trump landslide though. A day before election
Hillary Clinton "had" 95% probability of winning. And she didn't have
Alzheimers and didn't sniff children.

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verdverm
Sniff children? Is that what they call cocaine in DC? or is that the other way
around... I honestly don't know what you are referring to

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m0zg
LMGTFY:
[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=biden+sniffing+...](https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=biden+sniffing+people)

