
Gary Becker's biggest mistake - smollett
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/09/what-was-gary-beckers-biggest-mistake.html
======
littlewing
One of the more successful, though still brutal, experiments in handling
crime, in my opinion, was the penal colony in New South Wales, Australia:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_New_South_Wales](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_New_South_Wales)

From 1788-1792, it started out tough with thousands of professional criminals
ill-fitted for the skills required. 1/4 of the 2nd fleet lost their lives. The
rest survived near starvation. However, between 1810-1821, it transitioned
from a penal colony to a budding free society.

I can't think of many successes like that in our history where so many career
criminals were reformed so quickly, the sacrifices of lives not withstanding.

~~~
idlewords
A lot of those criminals were people who were transported for trifling
offenses like theft. The real driver behind Australian settlement was
overpopulation in Britain, not the need to get rid of some hardened criminal
class. _The Fatal Shore_ is a good, readable history of this social
experiment.

Note also that this "budding free society" was responsible for horrible
atrocities against the native population until fairly recent times.

~~~
littlewing
> Note also that this "budding free society" was responsible for horrible
> atrocities against the native population until fairly recent times.

Doesn't excuse it, but I can't think of a first world country that hasn't
committed atrocities to native people or forced people into slavery. In many
ways, the world is much better today than it was before.

~~~
tptacek
It's interesting how attempting to reconcile a "much better world" with
multiple genocides forces you to evaluate what it means for the world to be
"better" or "worse". If we can destroy a whole culture and virtually all its
people to make room for settlers, what other forms of progress might invoke
the same "eminent domain" against us?

The world is certainly a nicer place for us to live in than it was for the
pre-colonial Australian aborigines, or the pre-Columbian Iroquois. I like
antibiotics, plumbing, and electricity too. But too: there are lots of other
niceties that would be much easier to dole out to our friends and fellow
citizens if we could simply eliminate pesky rival people. Were constitutional
democracy, English common law, and industrialization the key improvements that
justified our ancestors perpetration of genocide? Are we done now?

------
josu
tl;dr: His mistake: longer sentences didn’t reduce crime as much as expected
because criminals aren’t good at thinking about the future; criminal types
have problems forecasting and they have difficulty regulating their emotions
and controlling their impulses.

------
jbapple
I think the notion that "more police on the street [makes] punishment more
quick, clear, and consistent" needs supporting evidence.

------
erikpukinskis
This is a harder sell in the connected age, because every time someone on
early release commits a serious crime it is widely reported and proof in the
public's eye that longer sentences make sense.

But when someone is released early and quietly finishes out their life that
doesn't make the news.

------
gcb0
> he argues that an optimal punishment system would combine a low probability
> of being punished with a high level of punishment if caught

the Trailer Park Boys series has an episode were small criminals decide to
lower their crimes even more so police would ignore them.

------
skywhopper
> "models are to be used but not to be believed."

Data scientists, please take note.

