

Why US recovery will be bigger, faster, and stronger than economists expect? - cwan
http://www.slate.com/id/2250374/pagenum/all/

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cryptnoob
If you strip out all of his rewriting of history, you are left with a single
half paragraph that forms the evidence on which the premise of his article
rests.

    
    
         The Dow Jones industrial average, hovering near 
         11,000, is up 70 percent in the past year, and auto 
         sales in the first quarter were up 16 percent from 
         2009. The economy added 162,000 jobs in March, 
         including 17,000 in manufacturing. The dollar has 
         gained strength ...
    

I could comment on whether these four data points actually are real and
actually bode well or ill for long term economic health, but I don't need to.
Seeing them there, shivering alone in that single paragraph, unprotected by
flowery prose, should let you evaluate that for yourself.

~~~
pavs
I think it will be helpful if you could point out why you have a problem with
that statement and why that statement alone negates the whole article.

This is not the first time that everyone is screaming about the doom and gloom
of US economy and its standing in the world, it happens once in almost every
decade. While I don't agree with the author's choice of hyperbolic words but I
don't see any reason why USA can't get back to its way of dominating the world
economy.

I am not an economist so I could be wrong. But I also know that economic
predictions by some of the best economists in the world has been as good your
local whether channel guy. So when they all cry about how US is going down in
flames, it makes be a little happy knowing that how often they are wrong about
everything.

~~~
startuprules
1.) The Dow Jones industrial average, hovering near 11,000, is up 70 percent
in the past year - Low volume trading (most people have already bailed out of
stock market), mainly between JPM and GS computers (look at how much C and BA
comprises of the trading volume).

2.) Auto sales in the first quarter were up 16 percent from 2009. - Off 50%
lows in 2008.
[http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S410LoDr97I/AAAAAAAAHp...](http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S410LoDr97I/AAAAAAAAHpw/gu38MKWD0Rk/s1600-h/AutoFeb20102.jpg).
That's on top of massive deals from Toyota and the rest.

3.) The economy added 162,000 jobs in March, including 17,000 in
manufacturing. - 200,000 of those jobs were from Census.

4.) The dollar has gained strength - Because it is the reserve currency, it
will be the last to fall. All currency races to the bottom

Mainstream medias are for propagandas. Look elsewhere for real informations
(calculatedriskblog.com, zerohedge.com, mish's, etc)

~~~
pavs
Ok, thanks for the pointers. I don't actually watch TV or follow any
mainstream media (unless you consider NYT as one).

On number 3 I think you got your numbers wrong. On March economy did include
162k jobs, 200k from temp census jobs. Wouldn't the total be higher than 162k
jobs added?

~~~
thewileyone
Maybe because there was a loss of 238k jobs in other sectors ...

------
gruseom
For all the talk about the "Great Recession", most of the statistics I've seen
show that the recession of the early 1980s was as bad if not worse. So it does
seem as if this downturn has been somewhat oversold, perhaps because the drama
surrounding it was on a scale not seen since the 1930s. That seems reason
enough to predict that the recovery will be faster than many people are
expecting. The real question is more long-term. Will the structural problems
that created the crisis be addressed or will the foundation continue to rot?

~~~
startuprules
We’re in a great global depression, and it’s only the beginning. Many
countries are about to default (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Ireland,
Japan, US, England, etc), and there are overcapacity/overprinting everywhere.
The baby boomer generation, which constitutes the bulk of consumer segment, is
retiring. Automation/computers are reducing jobs permanently.

My point? Build your business to be lean, and get ready for 15+ years of rough
waters ahead.

~~~
evgen
<i>Many countries are about to default (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain,
Ireland, Japan, US, England, etc), and there are overcapacity/overprinting
everywhere.</i>

Unlikely. There will be financial instability as these countries are forced to
accept some fiscal responsibility, but the weak Euro zone countries will be
painfully/grudgingly propped up by Germany et al. while the US is starting to
slowly grow its way out of a lot of problems. Debt is a problem that will
obviously need to be addressed, but anyone who makes a big bet on wide-scale
currency defaults is going to lose their shirt.

<i>The baby boomer generation, which constitutes the bulk of consumer segment,
is retiring.</i>

You mean they are now leaving jobs and becoming full-time consumers? Oh
horror! Those jobs they are leaving will need replacement workers, and the
aging boomers will require new services (services which can't easily be
outsourced) from the remaining employment pool. The boomer retirement wave may
end up being a major win for the US economy in the next decade or two.

<i>Automation/computers are reducing jobs permanently.</i>

And creating completely new jobs and services. Large-scale manufacturing has
been dead in this country for more than a generation and no one is placing a
big bet on it returning. If automation gets better it is a threat for low-cost
manufacturing and ends up being a net win for the US.

