

DRM is going to live long - seshakiran
http://foftv.com/2013/09/23/digital-rights-managment-vs-free-content/

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brownbat
> DRM [will] exist as long as the content exists [for] any form of
> entertainment that is digitally transmitted.

It's a bit more complicated than that.

True, HDCP shows a pretty aggressive spread of content protection into wires.
BluRay doubled down on protecting physical discs even during the DeCSS art
movement, when most of us were starting to view such efforts as futile.

Smashwords and other indie ebook publishers vs. Amazon and Google Books...
it's a mixed field in eBooks, with DRM admittedly still largely dominant.

That's not wholly dissimilar to the status of AAC vs. mp3 in the marketplace
for the first six years of iTunes though. DRM lost that round.

Will that happen again though? It's really impossible to know.

That exception relied on the particular marketplace factors at the time, such
as Amazon's desire to spend a large amount of money to challenge Apple's
monopoly, relying on the working examples of other unencumbered music sellers,
like eMusic, to convince music publishers DRM wasn't necessary, and the
widespread use of mp3s prior to the development of the mature digital music
market.

We sometimes make the mistake of forecasting about technology based on first
principles, imagining a utopia or dystopia enabled by technology, then running
with it. It's easy to ignore the many contingencies involved, such as human
institutions, cultural factors, even chance.

Tangential, but relevant, a recent Freakonomics podcast on "The Folly of
Prediction:" [http://freakonomics.com/2011/09/14/new-freakonomics-radio-
po...](http://freakonomics.com/2011/09/14/new-freakonomics-radio-podcast-the-
folly-of-prediction/)

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seshakiran
Thanks for the comment and the link. Considering the situation the market has
been since some time resulted in my prediction. I am not saying we would be
stuck with DRM alone. Some sort of protection mechanism will be in place. The
problem is that we cannot compare music industry to video or broadcast
industry. The amount of money involved in each of these industries varies
much. The expensive your product is you would want to protect it.

