
Into Thin Error: Mountaineer Ed Viesturs on Making Mistakes (2010) - ColinWright
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2010/06/into-thin-error-mountaineer-ed-viesturs-on-making-mistakes.html
======
isaachawley
I've done a bit of climbing. I think it takes more bravery to accept that
conditions are bad and you need to turn around, than to continue on with the
rest of the group.

It's not clear-cut, either. If you turn around and the group continues, and
they don't die, it's really hard to accept that you made the right choice.
Just because they got lucky and survived, sometimes the right choice was still
to turn around. But there's no certainty, and it's hard not to second-guess
your choices.

~~~
Greek0
There is a fair amount of research into group dynamics and group decision
making, specifically in the context of alpinism. For example [1], written in
English, from the "Berg und Steigen" blog.

In general, I can't recommend German-language "Berg und Steigen" magazine
enough. It's focuses on safety and risk management in mountain-related
activities (mountaineering, indoor/outdoor climbing, skiing, ski touring,
mountain biking, ...). Older issues become completely freely accessible in
their archive [2].

[1] [https://www.bergundsteigen.blog/human-factor-and-decision-
ma...](https://www.bergundsteigen.blog/human-factor-and-decision-making-the-
next-steps/?lang=en) [2]
[https://www.bergundsteigen.at/?module=archiv/ausgaben](https://www.bergundsteigen.at/?module=archiv/ausgaben)

~~~
snowwrestler
The American Alpine Club produces an annual publication called "Accidents in
North American Mountaineering" that collects and presents case studies of
climbing[1] accidents, often with some analysis.

When I was a more active climber, I read it religiously every year. It was
very interesting and I definitely learned some important safety lessons I put
to good use in my own activities.

[1] All types, not just mountaineering

------
EdwardDiego
> a mistake is a mistake even if you get away with it.

I've had this exact same feeling making mistakes on a motorbike, didn't get
hurt, but scared me shitless for a few weeks nonetheless.

~~~
SethTro
This is something called "results oriented thinking" it can be very
destructive to learning in noise environments (e.g. poker, investing)

~~~
abduhl
Understanding that a mistake is a mistake regardless of the result is
literally the opposite of results oriented thinking.

~~~
dredmorbius
SethTro's comment might be read several ways and they've not clarified whether
they support or oppose cautious climbing practices.

One explainer of ROT uses poker as an analogy.
([https://www.masterclass.com/articles/what-is-results-
oriente...](https://www.masterclass.com/articles/what-is-results-oriented-
thinking-in-poker)) This is both a poor analogy, if read shallowly (follow a
strategy even if there are occasional setbacks), and a possibly useful one
(negative outcomes are far more consequential in mountaineering than at the
poker table).

In cards (or many financial investments) it's possible to amortize risk over
many bets --- you're rarely all-in on any one of them. In mountaineering,
you're all-in all the time, and an early minor miscalculation or unwise choice
may commit you to disaster. In the former case, taking small hits is sensible,
in the latter, it's avoiding any extraneous risk thatis the wise move --- luck
eventually runs out, and with high stakes, poor odds, and many bets, the
daredevil strategy fares poorly.

You can of course find similar situations in finance and business. Startups,
unlike VCs, are all-in on their specific venture. Funders can hedge bets,
founders cannot.

In personal finance, there's the question of what size a financial hit a
household can stand. For something like 40% of US households, finding funds
for an unexpected $400 expense within a month is beyond their means. In a
world with a steady rate of $400 shocks possible (medical bills, car repair,
towing/impound fees, appliance repair, lawsuit or fines, unemployment, etc.),
this means financial ruin is an everpresent looming threat.

~~~
reitzensteinm
I can't read his comment as anything but him agreeing with parent, i.e.
labeling the parent's quoted text as ROT.

I think we're so used to point->counter->point->counter nested trees that we
pattern match disagreement even when it's not there.

------
calmoo
I'd highly recommend reading Ed Viesturs' account of his ascent of K2 - "K2:
Life and Death on the World's Most Dangerous Mountain", it also details the
history of K2 mountaineering, amazing read.

~~~
mbostleman
One of my favorite mountaineering photos is one of Ed Viesturs navigating a
long traverse across a > 50 degree snowfield high on K2 with Scott Fisher
kneeling in the background on belay. Can't seem to find it now but I think I
first saw in this book.

~~~
calmoo
Doesn't seem to be in my copy of the book - there are a few of Viesturs and
Fisher but none with belaying. If you're eager to find it, Viesturs seems
pretty active on Instagram, he might be able to find it for you.

------
dredmorbius
Charles Perrow's _Normal Accidents_ addresses this concept of risk from a
complex systems (and complex organisations) perspective. The title comes from
the fact that accidents arise _from normal operations_ \--- these systems are
always operationg at the borders of control, often previous incidents have
reduced perceptions of risk, further shaving safety margins, until there are
none.

[https://www.worldcat.org/title/normal-
accidents/oclc/1102386...](https://www.worldcat.org/title/normal-
accidents/oclc/1102386873)

------
awinter-py
love how cool he is about missing his first attempt

> The weather was deteriorating, we’d used all of the rope we’d brought with
> us, the conditions were getting worse and worse by the minute. That
> umbilical cord of safety was stretched and maybe almost broken, and we
> figured we might be able to get to the top, but no way were we going to get
> down. And climbing a mountain has to be a round trip.

a plan isn't a strategy unless it accounts for resource trends and
contingencies

this is why people tabletop / wargame things when they're important + involve
uncertainty

------
saiya-jin
I like that guy a lot, humble overachiever, he was described by other elite
mountaineers as calm at practically every situation. Not huge ego like many in
that business.

That being said, there is survivorship bias with guys like him or Messner -
they risked so many times and came out alive that they are by no means
representative, rather an exception. Many folks like them lie frozen up there
in some crevasse, just because of tiny mistake that you don't even realize
you're doing, or simply unlucky with being at bad place at bad time.

~~~
082349872349872
Shorter "American Alpine Journal" (circa 1970s): we were tired, hungry, cold,
low on oxygen, and that's when we made this stupid mistake and ${colleague}
died.

I don't know what current standards may be; around the turn of the century
there was a proposal that a team should include someone at base camp radioing
simple math questions "6 times 9" and timing the response. If the response
time increased significantly, they'd say it was time to turn back.

(Viesturs on how to train to climb without supplemental oxygen: he doesn't
think he trained to do it, he's just lucky to be a freak)

~~~
MaxBarraclough
42\. Easy.

~~~
MontagFTB
This is the right answer. I read it in a book once.

------
YeGoblynQueenne
>> But on a mountain, sometimes it is black and white, right? I mean, you can
be as rah-rah relativism as you want, but sometimes the world makes it very
clear that you’ve made a mistake. All else being equal, if you survive and the
other guy doesn’t, your decision was right and his was wrong.

>> Yeah. But I make a point of not judging people. You can’t go up to them and
say, “Nyah, nyah, I was right and you were wrong.”

Especially if the other guy doesn't survive. Then, no, you can't go up to them
and say that. I mean, presumably if they're dead they didn't even come back
down the mountain, so what are you going to do? Climb back up and thumb your
nose at them?

------
nogabebop23
Alex Honnold has some great advice on risk mitigation and erros as well. For a
guy who get's promoted as a huge risk taker it's just not really true when he
explains what goes into a big wall solo. For example he stated that if he
could only do one type of climbing it would be typical sport climbing so he
could actually take chances and work right at the point of failure; not where
you want to be in the middle of a free solo.

~~~
rurp
I can't find a link right now but there's a great interview out there that
Honnold and Peter Croft did together talking about their different approaches
to free soloing. It was interesting to hear the contrasts in their styles.

------
mauvehaus
Couple of book recommendations if you find mountaineering and its associated
safety culture interesting:

Forever on the Mountain is a pretty in-depth reporting of a spectacularly
deadly mountaineering disaster on Denali (or McKinley), which Ed Viesturs has
climbed ~200 times per the article. I know it's easy to say with the benefit
of knowing how it ends, but you can just watch the mistakes pile up.

From TFA:

"These high-altitude mountains are one of the few places on the planet where
there is literally no help. If you screw up and break a leg, it’s up to your
partner to get you down."

Touching the Void recounts an accident in which this was exactly the case. The
author broke his leg on the way down at altitude, and things got (much) worse
from there. Spoiler alert, he survived to write the book. Pick a time when you
can finish it in one sitting. Once you get about 1/3 of the way in, you likely
won't be able to put it down.

Everest the Hard Way is a telling of a successful Everest expedition, but
provides a good look into the planning and decision making that makes that
happen.

Deep Survival is also worth a read. It doesn't focus exclusively on
mountaineering, but as I recall, some of the case-studies are mountaineering.
Sorry, it's been a while.

Into Thin Air, from which the article riffs on the title, covers the 1996
Everest disaster. It's been even longer since I read that, but it's worth a
read.

I'd be interested in a book recommendation if anybody has one that talks about
how safety culture is spread. I'm a rock climber (as distinct from
mountaineering), and one of the things I observe is that the safety culture in
the sport _sucks_ [0], [1]. I'd be curious what the climbing community can do
to better spread or develop a safety culture within the rapidly growing sport,
especially as fewer people are being brought in by experienced mentors and are
instead getting into it via rock gyms.

My admittedly outside understanding is that mountaineering has a much more
developed and widespread safety culture, perhaps because the barriers to entry
almost require getting into the sport via a mentor.

[0] I saw somebody (top rope) belaying outside while lying in a hammock. This
was on a single pitch route with ample space to stand. Even if you have to be
anchored, there's just no reason to impede your hand and arm mobility like
that.

[1] A representative for a major gear manufacturer (if you climb, you've heard
of them) was explaining a new safety feature on a new model of their belay
device. He was telling me about it and started giving an example of where it
would be valuable by saying something along the lines of "suppose you were
climbing and your belayer didn't know what they were doing".

It's telling and disappointing that a major gear manufacturer seems to have
accepted that the safety culture in the sport has allowed this scenario to be
plausible and/or common.

~~~
isaachawley
Annapurna - Maurice Herzog. One of my favorites.

Rock climbing: I was very happy about all the coverage around the Dawn Wall
project, with Caldwell and Jorgeson. A big part of that climb was finding ways
to do it safely, protected all the way. Great contrast with all the free solo
hype that had gotten so much coverage before.

One of the worst experiences of my life was trying to spot and move pads
around for a buddy trying to climb a super-highball in the Buttermilks.
Horrifying. I didn't want to help but nobody else was around.

~~~
liversage
When I read Annapurna: First Conquest of an 8000-meter Peak many years ago I
was blown away by the story which was both a huge victory in that era of
mountaineering but also a personal tragedy for Herzog. This book together with
Touching the Void and Eiger Dreams by Jon Krakauer are very captivating books
even if you are not so much into mountaineering.

However, I have later read True Summit: What Really Happened on the Legendary
Ascent of Annapurna by David Roberts which provides a different perspective on
the Annapurna expedition.

And to reply to the grandparent post: Joe Simpson has written a number of
books and while they are not specifically about safety culture they often
touch on the ethics and dilemmas of high altitude climbing just as Touching
the Void did by telling a story where the rope was cut.

~~~
isaachawley
Interesting! Would you compare Roberts' book with Boukreev's response to Into
Thin Air, The Climb?

~~~
liversage
Honestly, it's many years since I read these books so my memory is a bit hazy,
but from what I remember Boukreev's book was a response to what he saw as
Krakauer's criticism of his actions as a climbing leader during the fatal 1996
Everest disaster.

Roberts is more like a historian with the perspective that Herzog perhaps
wasn't so heroic after all but instead, despite poor leadership and reckless
decision-making, was saved by his companions that were the true unsung heroes
of the expedition.

The first book is a rebuttal, the second is trying to reveal what really
happened many years ago.

------
bernardlunn
Love it, applies to many domains

