
BMW: All Models Electric Within Decade - Doubleguitars
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/bmw-all-models-electric-within-decade-20150629-00597
======
mdorazio
Ok, it's important to note that they're not saying all cars will be true all-
electric, but rather that they will all have at least some kind of electric
assist to increase MPG across the fleet. Even so, that would be very difficult
to pull off in just 10 years given how long car design and production cycles
are. It's a commendable goal, though.

~~~
ThePhysicist
I think BMW has been working on technologies for electric cars for a very long
time already, probably even longer than all-electric car manufacturers like
Tesla have existed. In Munich you already see quite a lot of electric BMWs and
charging stations, so the technology seems to be pretty mature as far as I can
tell.

I think the main reason they did not make the transition to (partially)
electric cars earlier is that they did not want to cannibalize their business
with non-electric cars. Another point is the still-missing charging
infrastructure and the (to my limited knowledge) lack of some universal
standard for charging stations. The final point is that today potential buyers
of electric cars still have many good alternatives that are as much or even
more ecological than all-electric cars. If you look e.g. at the new models
from Volkswagen or BMW, many of the smaller ones use 4 liters of gasoline /
100 km or less (i.e. > 71 MPG), which is pretty hard to beat in terms of eco-
friendliness and efficiency considering that electricity is still much more
expensive than gasoline in terms of energy / price.

One driving factor in the transition to partially electric cars might be that
there are not many other possibilities left to further increase the efficiency
of conventional engines. In fact, most of the increase in efficiency that we
have seen in the last decade was not due to better thermodynamic design of the
motor block but better control of e.g. the fuel injection through more
advanced sensors and electronics. As this optimization path seems to have
reached is maximum potential it probably makes a lot of sense to use electric
motors to e.g. recover braking energy, which should shave off another few
percent in fuel consumption (Toyota already proved the feasibility of this
very successfully with their Prius series).

~~~
lispm
BMW is making lots of money with eco-unfriendly cars: 7, huge SUV, over
powered limousines, ...

In their home market in Germany electric cars have very little acceptance:
expensive, low range, electricity is mostly generated with coal, no
infrastructure, ...

The program of the German government to have a million electric cars is
largely a failure.

Before there will be a million electric cars in Germany, there will be ten
million electric bicycles.

~~~
ThePhysicist
Well even the big limousines are actually quite fuel-efficient these days. For
example, the series 7 BMW 730 with its 250 horse powers uses only 5.6 l / 100
km
([http://www.bmw.com/com/de/newvehicles/7series/sedan/2012/sho...](http://www.bmw.com/com/de/newvehicles/7series/sedan/2012/showroom/technical-
data/?)).

BTW coal makes up for only 20 % of the electricity production in Germany, and
most of the coal-based power plants are quite "clean" in the sense that they
make good use of the available energy (in most cases the heat waste is used
industrially and emissions are heavily filtered).

As I said before, adoption here is mostly a question of availability, cost and
efficiency, all three of which need to be improved before customers will see
electric cars as a "reasonable" choice.

~~~
lispm
> Well even the big limousines are actually quite fuel-efficient these days.
> For example, the series 7 BMW 730 with its 250 horse powers uses only 5.6 l
> / 100 km
> ([http://www.bmw.com/com/de/newvehicles/7series/sedan/2012/sho...](http://www.bmw.com/com/de/newvehicles/7series/sedan/2012/sho...)).

These are unrealistic industry-produced numbers. This is widely discussed in
Germany that these numbers are a joke.

Also forget the massive amount of energy going into the production of these
cars and the materials they use. The huge space and infrastructure they are
using... we still have air problems in the cities because of the diesel cars.

> 20 % of the electricity production in Germany

Coal has a share of 43.6% of electricity production in Germany.

> in most cases the heat waste is used industrially and emissions are heavily
> filtered).

The filter ash is going where? The coal is coming from where?

CO2 is not filtered.

~~~
sgt
I agree, the numbers tend to go towards 10L/100km for these cars, based on
typical driving habits.

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rmason
In Michigan the Big 3 are still funding hydrogen car projects and making
primarily hybrids. Industry guys I know are not taking battery powered cars
that seriously. They passed a law banning Tesla from having showrooms in the
state.

[http://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/news.detail.html/content/...](http://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/news.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2014/May/0507-fuel-
cell.html)

[http://corporate.ford.com/microsites/sustainability-
report-2...](http://corporate.ford.com/microsites/sustainability-
report-2013-14/environment-products-plan-migration-fcv.html)

[http://www.autoblog.com/2015/07/30/fiat-chrysler-exec-
future...](http://www.autoblog.com/2015/07/30/fiat-chrysler-exec-future-fuel-
cells/)

~~~
threeseed
I am looking at apartments to buy here in Sydney and not a single one has
available power sockets in the car parking garage. Likewise at work. Which
obviously makes charging impossible. The problem here is the chicken/egg
situation. Building owners aren't going to install per bay power without cars.
And people aren't going to buy cars they can't charge.

As land becomes more and more expensive housing density is increasing
worldwide. This means fewer houses will have dedicated garages/driveways and
apartments are going to become more popular. This increases the chances that
your car will not be within distance of a power socket.

Hydrogen doesn't have this problem. It works exactly like petrol does today.
It doesn't require much education or really any change in user behaviour. It
is simply another nozzle at the gas station just like when LPG/Natural Gas was
introduced.

~~~
nkoren
Hydrogen is not simply a drop-in for petrol, like LPG/Natural gas. It is
considerably more challenging to store and pump, and its infrastructure is
_orders of magnitude_ harder to install than electric charging points.

~~~
threeseed
But as a customer I don't know or care how the hydrogen gets there.

I just know that I will drive to the same gas station, use the same hardware
to put it into my car, wait the same amount of time and pay for it exactly the
same way I do today. Only it will be clean. And I won't involving changing my
life to fit my car.

~~~
nkoren
I honestly don't mean to sound antagonistic, but literally every single point
you make is wrong.

> use the same hardware to put it into my car

It is not the same hardware: hydrogen pumps are far more complicated,
difficult, and expensive than gasoline pumps.
([http://ssj3gohan.tweakblogs.net/blog/11493/why-fuel-cell-
car...](http://ssj3gohan.tweakblogs.net/blog/11493/why-fuel-cell-cars-dont-
work-part-2)).

> wait the same amount of time

Hydrogen cars will always have very poor range compared to hydrocarbon-fueled
cars. So for the range that you get, you will spend much more time pumping.
See the blog-post series above for more on that.

> and pay for it exactly the same way I do today

Because the infrastructure is many times more expensive than petroleum
infrastructure -- and this is not just a matter of relative economies of
scale, but a fundamental attribute of hydrogen -- you will need to pay much
more to recoup those capital costs. Again, read the blog post series above
(I'll stop repeating this, but it holds true for every point).

> Only it will be clean.

Only at your tailpipe, which is a false form of cleanliness. Systemically,
Hydrogen is dirty. Hydrogen production is _spectacularly_ inefficient. The
only remotely efficient way of producing it is to extract it from hydrocarbons
-- in which case it would actually be cleaner to generate work by burning the
hydrocarbons directly. Truly "clean" methods of hydrogen production
(electrolysis of H2O) require copious amounts of electricity, which must come
from somewhere, and again would be better used directly, via a battery-
electric vehicle. Basically, any energy source which produces hydrogen could
be used to directly power a vehicle, and would be 5x-10x cleaner by doing so.

> And I won't involving changing my life to fit my car.

You have _already_ changed your life to fit your car -- by driving to gas
stations! Home-charging is a feature, not a bug.

Besides, if you really want to drive to a remote location to get a complete
top-up of your range -- that's what battery-swap is for. Battery-swap stations
are far cheaper to build than hydrogen filling stations, and can give you more
range, more quickly, than hydrogen pumping. And they are _truly_ clean, not
imaginarily clean.

~~~
threeseed
You are missing the point. Look at it from the consumer's perspective. It will
be identical to how they fill up their car today. Nothing new to learn. No
change in behaviour. No finding new stations out of the way. No proprietary
battery swaps that exist only at specific stations.

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7xCbmkWKkw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7xCbmkWKkw)

~~~
nkoren
Did you even read what I wrote, or follow the sources? Hydrogen pumping is
_absolutely not_ identical to how people fill up their cars today. And you
can't simply retrofit a standard gas station to pump hydrogen: you need to
build an entirely new facility. Just like a battery-swap station, except much
more expensive (and therefore rarer and further out of the way).

If you could simply replace gasoline with hydrogen, then your arguments might
have some merit (although it still wouldn't be "clean" by any real measure).
But you can't, and therefore your arguments don't.

~~~
ams6110
It's identical in that you pull up to a pump, insert a credit card, connect a
hose to your car, and in about 5 minutes you are on your way.

All your other complaints are irrelevant to the consumer.

------
exabrial
Really really need nuclear power to actually make this a "clean" technology.
And I hope we're paying attention to the environmental impact of lithium
mining too while we're at it. And rare earth minerals.

~~~
irrlichthn
Everytime I read a comment like this (claiming nuclear is clean, ignoring the
atomic waste contaminating your land with radiation for the next hundreds of
thousands of years, which is starting to become a severe problem for example
here in Germany), I notice that the commenter is usually from the US. I wonder
why this is?

~~~
necrodawg
Nuclear is pretty clean if the waste is dealt with properly and stored safely,
until we figure out how to use it.

My understanding is that the radiation problem in Germany is since
Chernobyl...

I don't think people's viewpoint on this issue has anything to do with
nationality.

~~~
germanier
Germany started their nuclear power phase-out in 2002, well before Fukushima.
In 2010 the Merkel government decided to extend the lifetime of the existing
power plants by 8 to 14 years, which was heavily criticized at that time. The
only thing the Fukushima 2011 incident resulted in was that the phase out was
accelerated but it would have occurred nonetheless.

> if the waste is dealt with properly and stored safely

At least in Germany, nobody figured out yet how to store the waste properly
for a long-time. Remember, that the country is densely populated. For example,
take a look at the Asse II mine.

~~~
necrodawg
Fukushima had a big impact on nuclear policy in Germany. I'm just saying it
doesn't make sense given its geological stability.

There's a world outside Germany. Pay someone outside Germany to deal with it.

~~~
germanier
Nobody has yet built a storage site for high-level waste. There are three
attempts, the two German ones failed. WIPP in New Mexico looks promising but
is far from perfect. Even for less-radioactive waste, the current situation
doesn't look too good.

The thing is: No matter how often it is repeated, there is currently no safe
place to store a sufficient volume of nuclear waste securely anywhere in the
world. It's not just a simple question of "paying someone else".

Developing those sites seems possible but the solution to the waste problem
isn't there yet.

~~~
jpalomaki
There's a storage site being build in Finland. Should ne ready to start
accepting waste around 2020. The waste will ne stored in bedrock, around 450m
below surface.

[http://www.posiva.fi/en/final_disposal/onkalo](http://www.posiva.fi/en/final_disposal/onkalo)

------
hackuser
The climate change deniers may be costing the US a chance to be a center an
enormous future industry, clean tech.

The article says BMW's move is in anticipation of stricter environmental laws
in the EU. The situation could give Europe or certain regions there a 'first-
mover' advantage, if it hasn't already.

Once the 'Silicon Valley' or valleys of clean tech are established, where all
the talent, capital, services and infrastructure are and where business is
done over a beer/wine/etc, it's not going to suddenly shift to the US when
Americans catch up on climate change issues, especially if Europe offers a
large 'single market' for this technology. China could also be building an
insurmountable lead.

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gchokov
I am going to miss the conventional engines.. getting old perhaps.

~~~
crystalgiver
Do you also miss when it was common for people to smoke in public spaces?

~~~
gchokov
We still do it in Bulgaria but I hate smoking.

------
yason
To me it is obvious that the way to go would be to abstract out the power
source by using an electric drivetrain regardless of the engine. When the car
has electric motors connected directly to drive shafts you can eliminate lots
of the mechanical linkage and you are also free to redesign and relocate the
power source as you wish.

But, most importantly, once you accept the slight inefficiencies in converting
energy to electricity and then to radial forces, you are free to experiment
with whatever power source you like:

\- use batteries like Tesla: you can simply fill with batteries any
compartments of the body that you wish. The car runs as long as the batteries
have charge.

\- use fuel cells if those ever become viable.

\- design a small, self-contained turbocharged diesel engine that runs at the
optimum RPM to drive a generator when the batteries need charging: put it in
the boot or the front bay, but you don't need to consider how it connects with
the wheels mechanically, and it can be lighter and doesn't have to support a
wide range of RPMs like current engines.

\- or maybe linear generator engines powered by gasoline or diesel (like what
Toyota has been developing) turn out to be optimal for mobile electricity
generation for some period in the future.

\- or maybe a low-cost turbine engine hooked to a generator like the Whisper
concept car: the engine can burn nearly anything and provides high power
output at high RPM that would otherwise be in the impractical range for a car.

But if you combine any power source _and_ a small battery, that allows you to
buffer energy and only use the combustion engine to occasionally recharge the
battery. You can drive the rush hour traffic or a downtown route using mostly
electric power only, and rely on the combustion engine to recharge the battery
when parked (but not plugged in to mains) or while driving during longer
trips. A reasonable compromise for range anxiety would be to drop down to
limited power when the battery runs out and you need to rely on the combustion
engine only. You could still reach your destination but at slower speeds.

Nevertheless, the options are quite unlimited. Buffering of energy is more
useful than raw power in the future just like an Android phone is more useful
than a desktop PC in the general case even if it's slower and runs only a day
or so without charging. Only serious usage warrants desktop PCs with
stationary power supplies: most online activities can be done with a low-power
device that runs on energy buffered in the battery.

~~~
brc
Good ideas but those different power plants all have very different coolong
and exhaust requirements. Hard to design something that can adapt to all that.

------
Quequau
I really wish that BMW would produce a low cost single seat city car that
competed more directly with the Renault Twizzy. The i3 is great but for my
needs it's honestly way too much and so too expensive.

~~~
sschueller
The Twizzy is not very low cost and for that is has no windows I wouldn't even
consider it a car.

~~~
lazyjones
Twizy is technically an ATV ("quad") and doors and windows are available as
optional features from Renault.

------
yc1010
Hmm I would love an electric car and the i8 is beautiful after seeing it local
car dealer and drooling

but the price is incredible at north of €120K! you can buy an apartment/home
here for that lol, and it wont depreciate as much

So in meantime i will continue to drive my decade old gaz guzling m-sports x5,
i now wonder if should hold onto it another 10 years and keep in my garage,
decades from now it could be a collectors item for those who want/nostalgic
fpr v8 petrol muscle cars.

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fictivmade
It's going to be interesting to see how car companies adapt to the stricter
standards and whether people are willing to give up the speed and power to go
electric.

~~~
masklinn
Electric is not slower or less powerful, electric's issue is the low energy
density wrt petroleum fuels, so you need much more volume dedicated to
batteries and you still get a much lower range. See the recent news about a
hypermiler getting 452 miles out of a Model S (on 0-grade roads at 25mph), the
hypermiling record on a production petroleum car is more than 1600 miles.

This is exacerbated by the much longer refueling times, a supercharger needs
~20mn for a 50% charge, an at-home 240V/40A does ~10%/hour.

~~~
mullingitover
Hypermiling isn't necessarily a valid comparison method. How do they compare
in stop and go traffic where the gas powered car is wasting power that the
electric car can retain via regenerative braking?

~~~
qbrass
2016 Toyota Camry: 25mpg city * 17gallon fuel tank = 425 mile range just city
driving.

If you still want regenerative braking, the hybrid version is rated at 43mpg
city and has the same size fuel tank.

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london888
Misleading headline slightly...

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crystalgiver
A fully electric Los Angeles would be encouraging. Paris, Shanghai, and
Beijing too.

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thirdreplicator
Wonderful!

