
Our Love Affair With the Tablet Is Over - slackpad
http://recode.net/2014/02/06/our-love-affair-with-the-tablet-is-over/
======
dictum
My love affair with the tablet isn't over: I _love_ how it lets me browse the
web, read books and magazines, and watch videos in bed after a long day.
That's probably how most people use their tablets — secondary devices, mainly
for entertainment. After a working day, I don't want to use a PC, and the
tablet lets me use the web and other media comfortably, but I wouldn't try to
actually use it for work beyond initially planning projects.

It's much more _human_ , for lack of a better word — more intimate, more
ergonomic — than a PC for (browsing the web|reading ebooks or PDFs|watching
videos|making video calls).

~~~
NathanKP
This is exactly how I use my tablet too. I use my computer all day writing
code, so when its time to relax with some Netflix, or an ebook I grab my
tablet instead. Its perfect for laying on the couch or in bed.

A phone definitely works in that case as well, but the tiny screen isn't as
nice for reading and watching video. Not to mention by the end of the day my
phone is usually mostly dead and its time to put it on the charger for
tomorrow. So trying to use my phone in bed while its attached to a charger is
annoying. The tablet meanwhile is charged up (and usually lasts a full week
for me between charges, even during heavy Netflix usage).

~~~
stinos
_Its perfect for laying on the couch or in bed_

not for everyone though, as it emits light, and that is not what your body
wants late at night. See example HN thread:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7057575](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7057575)

edit: I'm simply indicating staring at a screen late at night might not be all
that good for us humans. Downvoting this doesn't make it any less true.

~~~
codelap
I suspect you're being down voted because article is discussing the merits
between 3 devices, PC's, tablets, and phones, with the conclusion that
phablets are the win in the end (with some fairly feeble 'evidence'). The fact
that all three affect some peoples circadian rhythm isn't overly valuable to
the conversation. Form factor is the discussion, and you're talking about
light sensitivity in insomniacs. Water is a solid at -30c at sea level is also
true, regardless of whether people down vote me. And neither are relevant to
the article or the discussion being had.

------
bhauer
Although I own three tablets, my love affair with the tablet as it exists
today never really took off the same way it did for so many consumers. The
primary reason is that I do not believe that tablets should be first-class
computing devices. Tablets, and in my opinion, the entirety of what we today
call "mobile," should be subservient to a general computing model of personal
omnipresent applications [1]. Put more concretely, I should only have one
e-mail application, one web browser, one IM client, one media player, and all
of my devices—wired, wireless, wifi, cellular, and everything in
between—should be views upon those singular applications and nothing more.

So although I have three tablets because I am a technology addict, I
simultaneously _do not_ want them because I do not want additional first-class
computing devices in my life.

If each additional tablet I purchased were just another input and output
device—an additional view—added to my arsenal, I would buy as many as I see
worthwhile to have scattered throughout my house and office. But as it is,
each additional tablet (or phone or computer) is a first-class device with
first-class expectations for my attention. Every device wants to be babied
with application installations, updates, configuration, local data, and the
works. Today's plain cloud is a meager, sticky, and altogether phony solution
to this problem.

It's interesting to see this and an article about decentralizing the Internet
(mischaracterized as "the web") as the top two articles at HN presently. I
recently ranted [2] that Mr. Nadella should seize the opportunity to take
Microsoft into a fundamentally different direction than what everyone is
telling him, including himself ("mobile first, cloud first"), rather focusing
on users and applications first. Particular views of applications, such as
mobile or desktop or living room, are _secondary_ matters.

I'd like to see Microsoft step up and become the only tech titan to stop
following today's mobile-first, cloud-first model and swing the pendulum back
to self-control with technology serving users, not companies.

[1] [http://tiamat.tsotech.com/pao](http://tiamat.tsotech.com/pao)

[2] [http://tiamat.tsotech.com/microsoft-carve-your-
path](http://tiamat.tsotech.com/microsoft-carve-your-path)

~~~
exelius
I agree with you (especially about Microsoft.) I've been saying for years that
there is a killer opportunity for Microsoft in the enterprise: develop a
single platform for serving applications that serves a tablet view to tablet
users, a desktop view to desktop users and a mobile view to mobile users.
Basically, enable the hell out of BYOD because the PC is disappearing. They
can make the money they lose in Windows licenses back on the server side: if
the PC industry is pushing all the workload and complexity to the server, the
costs should go there as well.

Basically, it should be RDP/VDI but the entire interface adjusts to the device
you're using it on. They have a great touch interface in the Metro (or
whatever they're calling it) -- their mistake was forcing users with a mouse
and keyboard to use it as well. I suspect that a lot of Microsoft's tablet
shenanigans have been because they were trying to make the Surface happen. IMO
the better tactic for them to take would have been "We don't care what
platform you access your business applications from, as long as your app
servers are running Windows."

Which is basically exactly what you're saying. So I agree with you.

~~~
erichocean
_I 've been saying for years that there is a killer opportunity for Microsoft
in the enterprise: develop a single platform for serving applications that
serves a tablet view to tablet users, a desktop view to desktop users and a
mobile view to mobile users._

My startup is doing things that way (although not for Microsoft products,
obviously). Being able to create an 'app' that is write once, run well on
Desktop/Tablet/Mobile, with efficient UIs on all of them, is pretty dang
useful, at least in the business market.

~~~
exelius
Yeah; but the biggest problem you'll encounter in launching this is that
you're not Microsoft. Microsoft has an extensive partner sales network and a
lot of companies already using many of its infrastructure products. They write
the SDKs and IDEs that developers use to develop Windows apps. They write the
software that the system admins run on the servers. They write the security
policy management systems that most companies use to manage their users,
applications and hardware. And they also write the most popular desktop
applications so they can show people how to _really_ implement something like
this.

I don't think anyone other than Microsoft can realistically do this. Which is
exactly why Microsoft should; it's a product that nobody could copy and they
would have a 90% market share on corporate BYOD management in under 5 years.
Nadella is the right guy to actually push something like that forward; I just
hope that the shiny consumer stuff doesn't remain a distraction. There's
nothing fundamentally cannibalistic about someone running MS Outlook on their
iPad: in order to do this, they still need a Windows user license, an Exchange
license and an Outlook license, so MS is still getting paid three times for
that user.

------
ChuckMcM
There is an interesting commonality here, everyone "grew up" with computers.
Tablets aren't computers, they are smart displays, and that dissonance seems
to grind sometimes.

The Kindle/Nook concept of a tablet is pretty straightforward, keep it as
cheap as possible and let be your portal into a bunch of pre-created content.
I used my iPad and my Nook HD this way, I've got 45 books I carry around in my
messenger bag that used to sit on the shelf at home. I've got over a 150
datasheet/appnote/technical manuals in PDF form which works ok on "large" (>=
9") screens. I've got Evernote to index stuff and 1dollarscan to convert
things that I can't purchase in a compatible format. I've got a few thousand
hours of music I like which I can stream to headphones to keep the noise of
the world out.

That is the stuff tablets are really good at. I've got a Lenovo laptop to do
code development and computing on. I don't bother trying to do that stuff on a
tablet because it makes no sense to me.

A long time ago, people would have a room in their house just to hold the
books and references they needed. That became less useful when information was
available on the network, but it has become useful again as the network
information has become polluted and sometimes vanishes inexplicably. The key
though is having an indexing system, which Evernote seems to be a good start
at.

~~~
dragontamer
Some of us wish for Tablets to be more than just a portable screen.

Fortunately for those of us who wish to push the boundaries of computing, some
companies are willing to go in that direction.

Content Creation Example:
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCKWn1zjejE](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCKWn1zjejE)

Surface Pro obviously, but the concept of a highly-accurate stylus has become
standard in Galaxy Note and Galaxy Tab as well. Android now supports multiple
users and multiple accounts (Windows8 and WinRT always supported this
feature).

There is no reason why Tablets _can't_ evolve into general purpose computing
devices. It is simply a Human-computer interaction problem.

Programming on a Tablet:
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XmxtIDWI_E](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XmxtIDWI_E)

AutoCAD has listed touch-support. The future of content creation can be
revolutionized by tablets, if only we had open enough minds to see the
potential.

[http://cadablog.blogspot.com/2013/03/whats-new-in-
autocad-20...](http://cadablog.blogspot.com/2013/03/whats-new-in-
autocad-2014.html)

~~~
ChuckMcM
I see where you are going with that.

One of the challenges of stylus' and tablets are the technology just isn't
there. I've not tried the Note yet but the Wacom stylus on the IREX Illiad V2
has been the closest thing to what I want, my current best approximation is
the JotScript and its not there yet in terms of lag or accuracy. So much to
get right, and so cheap to just use a pen to draw in a notebook.

I agree with you that there is probably some sort of evolution that will work,
but its not there yet for me.

~~~
dragontamer
Instead of trusting companies who are reinventing the wheel from the ground
up... try a _real_ Wacom stylus.

Try the Galaxy Note 2, Surface Pro, or Wacom's own $2,500 Cintiq 24HD.

[http://www.techindustriya.com/2011/11/11/wacom-launches-
the-...](http://www.techindustriya.com/2011/11/11/wacom-launches-the-
cintiq-24hd-for-creative-pros/)

Wacom has been making styluses for many years. They have perfected the art,
and their best-of-the-best perfectly mimics the most complicated and intricate
of pen movements. (including pen angle, rotation, thousands of levels of
pressure sensitivity, multi-pen and so forth).

The Surface Pro and Galaxy Note use the cheaper "Bamboo" class Wacom styluses,
which "only" have thouands of levels of pressure sensitivity. (but fail to
keep pen angle and rotation in check).

Nevertheless, if you've only used iPad crap styluses, you're in for a treat.
Both the Surface Pro and Galaxy Note know whether or not your "finger" is on
the screen, or if it is a stylus. In fact, you can use both. Your palm does
NOT mess up the advanced Wacom styluses on these tablets. Its totally on a
different league than JotScript.

\-------------------------

Anyway, the stylus is only one more tool that I hope will become standard
issue for tablets. But that isn't the part that matters. What is important is
for Tablets to continue to accelerate and become more and more useful.

Before the past couple of months... Tablets were nothing but toys. They were
as you said, but portable screens with a little bit of smarts to them.

But the industry is moving on. They are marching towards progress, and
eventually, content creation will become a real thing.

If you need a little bit of imagination to take you where we're going... it is
_currently_ possible (with enough hardware / software), to capture an object
with the Surface Pro's camera, import those images into a 3d model, manipulate
the model and then print it using the Makerbot 3d Printer.

All on nothing more than a "tablet".

------
mjt0229
I never really got tablets - too big to be portable and crippled by the lack
of usable input devices. My 11" Macbook Air is just about as portable as an
iPad, but is _way_ easier to use, not just for streaming, but even for coding,
etc. Of course, I've been wrong about things before and I'm not really a
typical consumer user, but I just can't imagine a future for tablets with
phones getting as good as they are, and small laptops being as slim and
powerful as they are.

~~~
grecy
Have you ever seen a child use a tablet?

It's mind-blowing to see a 3 year old use one better than their parents.

I don't think tablets will ever replace laptops, but that's not the point of
consumption is it. They'd rather you buy a laptop for "work" a tablet for
"consumption" and a phone, and...

~~~
Zancarius
> Have you ever seen a child use a tablet?

Or your mother?

Seriously. It's actually kind of amazing.

I got my mum one a couple of years ago and she's hooked. She literally doesn't
leave the house without it if she's going anywhere that involves some manner
of waiting. Touch input is something far more intuitive to someone in her
generation (so it seems with my meager sample size of one) than mouse/menu-
driven input. Granted, I still have to occasionally show her how to perform
certain actions on the device, but save for the first few weeks, that's now
quite rare.

I think the thing with tablets is that they function for some adults as a
replacement for casual use--browsing, e-mail, videos, etc; a consumption
device, as you stated--but not for content creation. My mum still uses her
computer to _send_ e-mail, for instance, but everything else she does on her
tablet. Maybe it's because she's a touch typist, but I suspect there's
something about a keyboard that's a very difficult thing to replace.

~~~
rtpg
>Touch input is something far more intuitive to someone in her generation (so
it seems with my meager sample size of one) than mouse/menu-driven input

I would imagine most people find touch input more intuitive than mouse input,
if only for the reason that it accomplishes the same thing but _better_ (at
least on an intuitive level).

A mouse is like a pair of chopsticks. Sure, after a while, you can coordinate
it pretty well, but it's still a lot easier to build a house of cards directly
with your hands than with chopsticks.

I desperately want every screen to be a touch screen. There is no more direct
way of the "indicate something on a screen " action than touching it. Even
precision issues due to fingers being pretty big usually get solved through
decent heuristics or new gestures.

The only place that's still iffy is text editing. But even there some things
(rapidly , but roughly, going to a spot in your text) that could be a great
help.

~~~
Loughla
With enough of a screen, text editing is not bad either. I didn't realize how
terribly I wanted a touch screen for work until I worked with excel on a touch
screen with a keyboard. It was unbelievably fast. With my left hand I could
poke cells, the equation and scream around doing that. Meanwhile, my right
hand was typing letters and numbers. It was like the first time I heard the
Beatles. I was laughing to myself while working on the departmental budget.

It was so good that I sit at my desk at work now and just grump at the damned
stupid screen.

~~~
Zancarius
Interesting. I'd never considered spreadsheet use, but that sounds like an
area worth exploring for touch-based interaction. For some things, reaching
out and "grabbing" (for lack of a better term) seems to be a more natural
gesture than trying to isolate whether the UI expects left click, right click,
or some permutation of drag + clicking.

I wonder now how much cross over will eventually occur between keyboard +
touch interaction. One for input, one for manipulation. In essence, that
merges the best of both worlds.

~~~
Loughla
I've considered this. Multi-touch would be great for this. Pinch horizontally
to shrink the selection, anti-pinch (I've never really though about what that
motion of moving your fingers apart would be called) to expand the selection.
Pinch vertically to be able to drag it around and drop it where you want.

I can't wait for a 28" touchscreen at my desk with some software to make the
touch interface and excel, CSS and other random statistics programs work
together a little better. It will genuinely make work easier, and make me more
productive.

------
dankoss
The initial tablet market struck me as a very boomer focused device, one that
made computing easy for a limited subset of tasks.

I think he's wrong that tablets have peaked. As the software and hardware on
tablets catches up to the capability of a full laptop, they are a much more
compelling device for use at home or at work. Content creation, software
development and file management are still a challenge but these can be fixed.

I really hope the Surface and derivatives catch on in the enterprise, because
I'm tired of lugging a 7lb laptop to and from meetings.

~~~
loudmax
I'm a Linux user and very much addicted to the CLI. For any kind of work, a
tablet isn't really right for me. I'm getting by okay with two laptops at the
office: An MBP that weighs at least 7 lbs and a 2.2 lb ThinkPad. All my work
stuff is on my MBP which stays on my desk. I take my ThinkPad to meetings, and
if I need to reference something off the MBP I simply ssh into it. That would
be a pain without a keyboard.

So being a Linux CLI guy puts me at something like 1% of computer users. I
agree that the tablet content creation interface can be fixed for most of the
rest of the 99%. I expect that soon the only distinction between a tablet and
a laptop is whether or not the keyboard is attached.

~~~
coldtea
If you're addicted to the CLI why the MBP? A MBA would serve you just as well,
and be lighter.

~~~
emn13
Probably because until recently, only the MBP was retina - and that's a big
advantage (to me).

~~~
sdegutis
I agree.

------
DasIch
The problem with tablets is not that they are not useful, they are just not
good enough, yet.

They should be about as heavy as a sketch book, allow input as precise as a
pen on paper and preferably be foldable.

They need something like a filesystem that allows sharing documents between
applications. Instead of folders I want documents organized by metadata:
mimetype, a history with all times and locations at which I modified it and
when I want to open one I want to see the ones I'm most likely to open right
now based on whatever information the device has.

Most importantly though integration with other devices needs to be better. I
want no distinction between my notebook and my tablet when it comes to
accessing data. I shouldn't have to worry about backups or the contents of my
hard drive, the hard drive of any device should contain an operating system
and a cache and everything else I want encrypted in the cloud.

Switching from one device to the next should be seamless (as far as input
methods allow.)

As it stands tablets are glorified file viewers with some limited editing
facilities. What a tablet should be is a sketchbook for everything digital.

------
HillRat
Not sure how a nearly 30% YOY increase in tablet sales for Q4 translates to a
dead market, unless they thought tablets would end up as full replacements for
existing systems. Few people are replacing their other computing devices for
tablets, but obviously a large number of people see, and will continue to see,
tablets as good secondary devices. I suspect, however, that replacement cycles
for tablets will be longer than for phones (which cycle out on contracts) or
PCs (driven by corporate platforming schedules).

Anecdotally, I lug around a smartphone, laptop, iPad and Kindle, but I can
collapse the last three into the iPad for a lot of daily nontechnical tasks.
(Hell, I can even prototype Python on it.) It's not a necessary part of my
kit, but I'll keep one around for convenience alone.

------
zacinbusiness
I use my iPad all the time. From writing documentation to taking notes on
projects I'm working on. I also use it for wire framing designs and for
editing and passing on documents when I get an email and am away from my
computer. I also do these things with my iPhone, but the iPad makes it a
little easier with the larger screen.

So, some folks use them for one thing, and some folks use them for another
thing (or not at all).

That's the story for basically every product that exists....so....

In other words, re/code is trying to build up their content by using fluff
stuff like this - polarizing and gets page views by inciting flame wars.

------
bnolsen
I like tablets, but for very limited uses. They excel, especially for casual
puzzle type games that respond very well to touch. For light reading they work
fine as well.

Browsing the internet? Well not so great. Mobile versions of websites seem to
be always wanting and a lot of web pages are too target rich making it way too
easy to accidentally click on something like an advertisement or side bar
thingy. And I spend too much time zooming pages and waiting for reflows as
well. Overall a pretty irritating experience.

Data input? hehe, yeah right.

------
emehrkay
My 12 year old boy uses it as his main computing device despite having an iMac
on his desk. Often times I'd walk in on him where he is reading wikipedia,
watching youtube, or using it as a second screen while he plays video games.
To him it is a computer and his computer is a small tv. I think it is a
generation thing.

edit: and it isn't just a brand/technology thing, he uses the Surface RT that
we have in the same manner. Which leads to be believe that computing should be
as mobile and suited to the task as possible.

------
api
I am not surprised at all: a crippled, jailed, feudalized device that is too
large to be carried in your pocket like a phone but far too limited to replace
a laptop.

I don't think they'll go away. They're an acceptable "portable dumb terminal"
for certain kinds of work or for people who _only_ want web and e-mail and a
few apps. They also really kick butt for point of sale terminals and similar
kiosk applications.

------
nickbauman
Not so fast. Tablets have yet to impact businesses that don't even use
computers much. If you're in general contracting, a waitron, a delivery
person, a trucker, an auto-mechanic, a repair tech, an oil-field worker and a
host of other mostly paper-based or "non-computer" workflows, the tablet will
eventually enter this area. The implications of this change are through-going
and only barely begun. And it's mostly driven by cost / capability factors.

Furthermore there are other businesses that are just getting started using the
Tablet.

[http://venturebeat.com/2012/09/15/hardware-is-
dead/](http://venturebeat.com/2012/09/15/hardware-is-dead/)

------
dragontamer
On the contrary. Tablets are finally beginning to get good.

Android Tablets support multiple users. Active stylus support is becoming
natural (Surface Pro, Dell Venue Pro, Galaxy Note and Galaxy Tab Note).
Tablets are beginning to treat HTML5 pages more consistently.

Its still a while out before Tablets become amazing, but I'm going to be
grabbing one soon (Dell Venue Pro 8 + Active Stylus) because they're finally
good enough to be on my radar.

------
jblow
As soon as flexible screens become a thing, your phone and your tablet become
the same device; you just unfold it when you want a big screen.

In light of this, the size argument being made in this article is not really
meaningful in the medium-to-long term, unless these kinds of flexible screens
never happen. (But they are being actively worked on, so.)

~~~
craigvn
I think this is spot on. I am not sure how long it will take but there will be
a big revolution in screens, like the CRT to LCD one, in the next 20 years and
it will be around flexible and expandable displays. Possibly what we know
consider to be a screen will be totally changed.

------
normloman
Lots of sales people use it for presentations, since it weighs less than a
laptop, but has a bigger screen than a phone.

Also makes a great e-book reader.

Definitely not a laptop replacement.

------
analog31
I have a desktop PC, a notebook, a tablet, and a phone. All four of them were
getting long of tooth -- an inevitability given the rapid pace of
obsolescence. Which one did I upgrade, and why?

My phone, for two reasons:

1\. I needed to upgrade my phone in order to sign up with a new provider of
phone service. None of the other devices are tethered to a single (invariably
evil) service provider for mainstream use.

2\. Inefficiency and obsolescence such as sluggish performance carried the
highest price on the phone, because my need for the phone occurs in awkward
situations such as getting from A to B in my car, or deciding which product to
buy in the store.

If these are widespread patterns, then the result will be that the slickest,
newest computers in the typical household will be phones.

------
a-saleh
Adding myself tove the crowd "still in love \w my tablet" :)

My work laptop stays at work. At home, I have one windows machine, with steam
and nothing else.

Youtube, movies, articles, pdf-s, music ... all in my nexus7.

I stilll even use my kindle for reading longer texts (20+ pages)

Maybe the reason for all this, is that I am still in love with my nokia 3720c
dumbphone :P Battery on standby for a week, water, dust and shock resistant.

So in general, you are probably right, for most people in the near future,
smart-phone will be their primary personal computing device and laptop their
work-horse.

But there will be people like me, wanting to have their computing capabilities
more fine-grained.

------
jack-r-abbit
I rarely use the keyboard on my laptop. The laptop is part of a larger setup
that involves a larger external monitor (with the laptop screen being the
secondary display) and a wireless keyboard and mouse. I would love it if the
laptop was just a tablet "docked" to connect to the monitor and
keyboard/mouse. Then I could easily undock the tablet and use it as a tablet
when I wanted to. But then plug it back in for a more "traditional PC" feel.
Obviously it needs to be powerful enough for me to get my work done... and it
would need to run the apps I need to get my work done.

~~~
sethhochberg
Interestingly enough, you've pretty much described Microsoft's Surface /
Surface Pro. I think, debacle about the x86 vs ARM (Win RT) confusion aside,
they're onto something with the form factor and expandability.

~~~
jack-r-abbit
My current personal use laptop is less than a year old. I'm hoping by the time
I need to replace it things will have settled down a bit with the Surface...
or some other device that fits the description comes along.

------
fidotron
The more subtle point here about phablets being the death of tablets is, in my
experience, dead on. People still addicted to their 7inch+ tablets simply
haven't used a phablet.

I spent last year being much more impressed by single purpose devices anyway.
Stuff like the latest eink Kindles, the Chromecast and so on. Curiously they
all follow the same push style of content delivery, where it is pushed from
the network to the device for focused consumption, and I can't help thinking
this is the future.

------
maxerickson
I bought a tablet for travel because I don't really care if I have a smart
phone or not. I didn't really think it would replace things with keyboards and
I still really like it for travel.

The real problem is that cross device integration is so awful, hopefully the
future has us configuring environments instead of devices (environment there
being the software I want to see when I look at a small touch screen or the
software I want to see when I look at a large screen with a keyboard).

~~~
taternuts
I think the battery life is the one thing tablets are still great for, if I
traveled a lot I'd consider owning one for long media playback sessions a
necessity

------
appliedluck
I wonder how much of a factor the decline of middle class spending is
affecting the tablet consumer space. A phone is a more necessary gadget. A
tablet could be considered a luxury item. Maybe people just can't fit them in
their budget?

[http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/03/business/the-middle-
class-...](http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/03/business/the-middle-class-is-
steadily-eroding-just-ask-the-business-world.html?_r=0)

------
jmspring
My iPad is the my primary device for reading technical books, RFCs, and other
PDFs. It is often an accessory to when I am working on my laptop. Rather than
two different screens, one for development and one for reference info, the
iPad fills that role.

It is also typically what we use for watching movies at night while heading to
bed -- we have a decent digital media library.

I don't see the affair as being over, maybe the tablets people have are good
enough for their current uses.

------
zmmmmm
I kind of agree and disagree. I think tablets are here to stay and will be the
dominant form of computing device. As their price hits < $100 they are going
to be everywhere. The problem is, they are going to be boring - glorified
magazine readers. Their ultimate contribution to what we can do with our
devices in terms of novelty is going to be incredibly marginal.

Along the same lines, I think Apple has harmed the long term success for
tablets by refusing to embrace a stylus (I seem to remember "if you see a
stylus you failed" type remark?). After acquiring a Note 3 it truly transforms
the device - it's the "other half" of interaction that I have been missing. I
could never bring myself to type on a tablet in a meeting. Whether it's just a
social construct or not, I don't know - but I can write without feeling rude,
but not type. So many things I can sketch out with the "real" stylus but could
never do with a capacitive version. I have realized that my Note3 is the
perfect device for doing math. I mark up PDFs. I pull it out any time I need
more accuracy than the touch interface will provide. I'm seriously
contemplating now buying an 8" note just for the stylus function.

------
0xdeadbeefbabe
My love affair with touch screens is over. What a coincidence.

~~~
BlackDeath3
I have to agree with that. We pretty much all grew up before touchscreens were
widely available as they are now, and as such I think the allure of them was
in their novelty. The more I use touchscreens, the more I realize how
inefficient and inconsistent they tend to be (at least, the ones I've used).

~~~
freehunter
I feel the opposite. Whenever I'm using a computer without a touch screen and
the screen is close enough to touch (or in a convenient location to touch), I
have to fight instinct to touch the screen. Sometimes it's just easier (for me
at least) to jab your finger at the thing you want to click on than it is to
move the mouse to it.

~~~
BlackDeath3
I think it's really context-sensitive. Some things work best with a
touchscreen, I suppose. I do know one thing - I'd probably rather beat myself
to death with a tablet than try to program (or type _anything_ at all, for
that matter) on it.

------
rch
My iPad does sit around at home, waiting for me to test out some new UI, but
my Nexus 7 has replaced my phone altogether. I don't really make personal
calls, but I do a ton of casual reading and email. While the phone is nice to
have for the occasional call, the smaller form factor tablet works best for me
day-to-day.

If I could use a small Bluetooth headset to make calls through Google Voice,
I'd happily ditch the phone forever.

------
clarky07
This is silly. Expectations for phones and tablets are crazy, specifically
when talking about apple.

I read things daily that say apple is done for talking about both phones and
tablets. The market share numbers aren't THAT important when we are talking
about numbers as big as we are. In the mid 90's, when Microsoft "Won" and
Apple lost the global PC market was ~50 million. Apple alone sold more tablets
than that last year, and they sold more phones than that last quarter.

They don't have to sell 200 million tablets and phones per quarter. Apple is
going to die or get crushed because Android has more market share, and tablets
aren't going away either.

The only reason tablet sales haven't gone to the moon like some people
predicted, is that they misunderstood the replacement cycle. It's not
something that needs to be replaced every year or two like a phone. My iPad 2
is still just fine. I would love to have an iPad air because it is nicer, but
the functionality is pretty much the same. In another year or two it might get
to the point where i want/need to upgrade. But that is 4-5 year replacement
cycle, not 1-2.

------
hosh
Xerox PARC. "tabs, pads, and boards." They've experimented with these form
factors. Back in the '90s.

One thing they said back then, pads -- that is, tablets -- are not something
you carried around as a personal device like your phone. It would be more like
the tablets on Star Trek: The Next Generation. You left it in the room. You
logged in with your credentials (using your tab, the phone; or I suppose now,
it would be iBeacon). When you are done with the work, you left it in the room
and go elsewhere.

So you don't use it like a laptop or a phone. Duh.

It also means that, at some point, we should see multi-user tablets where
settings, files, etc. sync over the cloud, combined with sub-$99 tablets,
that's when this kind of a workflow will start emerging.

There's a similar romantic notion related to boards -- smart TVs. Eventually,
I suspect the use-cases will converge on that old Xerox PARC research. It's
when we start getting interactions among the three form factors we'll start to
see some interesting things.

------
bluedino
I love my iPad Mini. I don't regret moving to it from a regular iPad at all.
Now, only if Safari didn't crash once an hour...

~~~
merrua
The crashing is very annoying and very very common.

------
daigoba66
I got an iPad about 18 months ago. Since then I've not used a "PC" at home,
with the exception of when I use my work's laptop for doing work (programming)
at home. I do everything from the tablet: browsing the web, "social" stuff,
paying bills, e-mail, etc.

------
mark_l_watson
I mostly disagree with the article. True, I do watch Netflix on my Android
Samsung Galaxy III, and it is nice, but it is nicer on an iPad mini (or full
size iPad).

I keep the markdown files for my book projects in Dropbox, and while I can
read them and make small edits on my phone, writing is much nicer on my iPad
mini - so much so that I very often write on my iPad instead of on my MacBook
Air laptop.

I don't have a separate data plan for my iPad, rather I use a mobile hotspot
from my phone when necessary. Yeah, I am that cheap.

My MBA, phone, and iPad cover my needs for work, reading, watching video. I
would not want to be without any of them. I largely just use my MacBook Air
(with a huge external monitor) for writing code - just about everything else I
prefer to do on my two smaller devices.

------
pswenson
I think there is some truth to the article, but not that much.

Yeah, 5" devices are a nice size and make people somewhat less likely to reach
for their tablet when reading. But is a 5" screen going to replace a textbook?
or a magazine? or a kiosk? are people going to want to watch a movie on their
phone?

It's all of the above - phones, tablets, laptops. Depends on what you are
doing.

But fact is, many are now using tablets instead of laptops. Tablets are simply
a more pleasant experience for causal use. And a lot of computer use is casual
- reading, surfing the web, games, email, facebook.

So IMO tablets trend up in the long term, laptops trend down. But neither die.

------
LeicaLatte
Media's love affair with tablets is probably over. They have tried everything
and not able to continue/recreate the monopoly they enjoyed with paper. Not on
the web. Not on tablets.

For the rest of us, it is so getting started.

------
yodsanklai
I really don't get why people like tablets. I gave it a try with an ipad air,
but I sold it. There's nothing I can do on a tablet that I can't do more
efficiently on my laptop. As soon as typing is involved, the laptop is much
better.

Even for things that don't involve using the keyboard, I prefer my laptop. The
screen is much bigger and stays in place more easily.

Really, I don't see how anyone that knows how to use a keyboard could prefer a
tablet to a laptop. The only advantage I see is portability, and ease of use
for technophobics.

Well, maybe I'm getting old and can't adjust to new technology.

~~~
lanna
Try using your laptop in bed, or in the toilet, or in the subway, the bus, the
waiting room in the doctor's office...

~~~
yodsanklai
"Try using your laptop in bed"

Actually, that's one place where I much prefer using my laptop. It's sitting
on my belly, with the screen standing vertically. I just couldn't do the same
with a tablet.

------
tluyben2
More and more people are switching to tablets only; almost all managers, sales
people, account managers, project managers I know are not using tablets
anymore but have iPads. Don't see it dying soon as these people don't need
laptops and won't use laptops anymore. Then there is non professionals who all
buy tablets instead of laptops; my neighbour who swore she would never buy 'a
computer' now walks around with her E50 Android tablet all the time. I think
sales will only go up.

------
johngalt
It's easy to see that 5-10 years from now we will all be walking around with
phablet style devices in the 5-7" form factor. Docking with a larger fixed
display or external keyboard/mouse when needed.

It's been in progress for years. Talk to non-tech people _today_ and you'll
find they live their lives on smartphones/tablets. Sure they keep an old XP
machine around for when they need to type something lengthy or run some old
software, but that's driven by necessity not desire.

------
gopalv
Some factor of "Everyone who wants one - has one" applies.

And then there's this -
[http://thedoghousediaries.com/5608](http://thedoghousediaries.com/5608)

Once you hit the "content consumption from toilet" first world problem, the
rest of the market actually would like a smaller device with the same
connectivity.

That said, I'm a recent tablet user because with a Nexus7 and a Chromecast, my
screen is actually big, 10 feet away and doesn't need me to hold it.

------
kailuowang
His main analysis is this: "It comes down to size. The vast majority of the
hundreds of millions of people who use tech every day are just fine with
having two primary computing devices: One for your pocket and one for your
desk. " And in his opinion Tablet is neither.

My guess is that he hasn't extensively used a Nexus 7 tablet. It fits fine in
my front and back pockets. I used it way more than my smartphone. And I rarely
have the need to pick up my 10 inch tablet.

------
Yhippa
Someone who is actually in the trenches can probably answer this but my guess
is that a lot of the newest and hottest apps tend to be released for phones
first and then later on a tablet version comes along. The lowest common
denominator is going to be the phone since so many people have them and I have
to pull it out to be able to use app X. It might not be available yet for my
tablet or it is and it's not as feature-packed or as easy to use.

------
gnicholas
"PCs took a full three decades to reach market saturation, whereas tablets may
have already topped off at the four-year mark."

True, but this is probably due in part to the price differential—early
computers were 2x to 10x the price of early tablets, so it's not surprising
that tablets reached saturation faster. I do agree with the general gist of
the article, as my aging iPad 2 (which I will probably replace with the next
iPad Air) can attest to.

------
10feet
> We teamed up with HP, Toshiba, NEC and Fujitsu, all of whom spent millions
> alongside Microsoft, and failed to create a bona fide category at the time.
> Why? “Tablet PCs,” as they were known, required a stylus (versus today’s
> touch-interaction model), and more importantly, only had a few tablet-
> optimized apps. We now know that’s a recipe for disaster.

Yeah, and even more importantly they cost $2000 to $3000, and were very big
and heavy.

------
Zigurd
The article is wrong in at least two ways:

1\. The Bad Experience cited is with Windows tablets. This ignores how hard it
is to move a non-touch system to tablets.

2\. He cites Netflix "losing momentum" on tablets. If this was true for media
use on tablets in general, Amazon would not be pouring as much effort as they
are into tablets.

Google has done a bad job marketing Android on tablets. Apple has done a great
job with iPad. YMMV.

~~~
fpgeek
> If this was true for media use on tablets in general, Amazon would not be
> pouring as much effort as they are into tablets.

Amazon, unlike Netflix, is worried about being kicked out of the iOS
ecosystem. Kindle (and all the other major eBook apps) already came close at
least once. Unless Amazon was convinced that media use on tablets was going to
collapse (not just plateau), they desperately need the deterrent and the
insurance policy.

------
ecocentrik
Battery life is probably as important as size for merging the tablet and phone
markets. My tablet is effectively an extended battery for my phone. I could
probably use my phone for everything I do on my tablet, but if I did, I'd be
charging my phone 2-3 times a day.

As soon as the size gets more usable and battery life improves sufficiently,
tablets will probably turn into a fringe device.

------
jarjoura
What does this have to do with desktops?

This article is saying that as people apparently migrate to larger phones they
will then find tablets unnecessary.

I think there is room in the world for people to have both a small one-hand
useable phone coupled with a larger multipurpose tablet. There is also room
for people to buy devices like the Sony 6" phablet that works both as a phone
and a "tablet."

------
rdl
I use my tablet (iPad 4 with LTE for $10/mo) for a fair number of specific
tasks, but I prefer a laptop/desktop generally.

It rocks on planes, as a car nav system in a rental car, for reviewing
applications (...), for instapaper, for bathroom computing, for reading PDFs
(although sometimes I use a Kindle DX), etc.

Maybe I'm old, but using an iPhone 5S for reading long articles is kind of
painful.

------
Grue3
This is a product, the demand for which was singlehandedly created by one
company. Before Apple, nobody wanted a tablet. And nobody needed a tablet. But
Apple-fans would have bought anything if Steve Jobs said so. And then other
people thought they wanted one too. It's much like De Boers and diamonds.
Fortunately, tech fads pass rather quickly.

------
taopao
Why do things have to be boiled down into winner-take-all narratives? I feel
that the public has no capacity for nuance anymore.

Look, the tablet has its place - usually situations that don't require high-
bandwidth HIDs such as keyboards. The computer user of the future will have
many devices spanning many different form factors. It's OK.

------
badman_ting
No, I think it is just beginning. I bought an iPad in 2011 and didn't even
really know why, mostly because I felt I should know what's going on with this
new class of device. I ended up using it all the time, and still do (though I
bought a new one). The phone is too small to use comfortably for more than a
short while.

------
theg2
I just got my first tablet in the form of a Dell Venue Pro 8 and I absolutely
love it but I think a large part of it has to do with the ability to run full
apps and the fact its 7in form factor lets me put it in my pocket.

Tablets used to refer to larger phones that ran the same apps but that
ecosystem is hopefully changing.

------
blueskin_
I really didn't see much of the point in tablets.

They're too big to be properly portable like a phone, needing some kind of
case or bag, but lack the OS, real keyboard, and general power of a laptop.
Being stuck between the two doesn't seem appealing even without their general
lack of mobile data capability.

------
INTPenis
My N7 is used for exactly these things, alarm clock, iTunes remote, Telldus
remote (this controls lights and power outlets around the apartment) and
browser for when my computer is being used by someone else or when I'm playing
a game on it.

So it's not worthless, but I can easily imagine how I lived before it. :)

------
the_watcher
I really like my iPad a lot for second screen viewing. I think there is still
a ton of untapped potential there (sports in particular could have all kinds
of cool things built for tablets involving motion tracking). I really don't
use it for anything else but movies when travelling.

------
SunboX
After long time Smartphone user I bought a tablet last year for three reasons
- and only these reasons: A browsing device for the Couch, a reader for the
evening and a photo viewer (holiday photos aso.) I love it. Works great for
these three things, better than a phone or notebook.

------
kleptco
The author is right. No one wants to hold their computer for extended use. The
phablet is the right compromise, it does everything a tablet does and more
while still being light, small and always with you. Also, having 1 device is
much less expensive and cumbersome than having 2.

------
killertypo
I read all my comics on my tablet device. it is the perfect size screen /
interface. I have the same marvel/dc app on my iphone and it's not the same
experience. It tries to be, but the real estate makes it impossible to enjoy
in the same fashion.

------
polarix
This may be accurate, for the most part, at least until voice recognition
passes the turing test. Depending on when that happens, it's not clear whether
we'll have input devices close enough to children's brains to bypass
decorated-glass entirely.

------
danmaz74
My tablet gradually became my three-years-old daughter's tablet. I almost
never miss it :)

------
gress
This seems like a weirdly narrow experience to base writing off tablets in
general on. It also is contradicted by the massive volume of android tablets
being specifically sold as _tv_ replacements.

Seems like he's been deluded by taking numbers out of context.

------
foohbarbaz
"Our" affair is over? Gee, too bad my household does not know it yet and a 2
year old laptop has been demoted to kids machine for playing Minecraft...
_Our_ love affair with a PC is over. Likely will never buy again.

------
angryasian
This is just a rehashing of the netbook. As phones get bigger and/or something
else replaces the need of casual consumption in a different or more appealing
form factor, we'll say bye to the tablet as well.

~~~
r00fus
The original (OLPC-derived) netbook was a thing of beauty.

Once Microsoft and Intel got their claws into it, it became a cheap PC with
poor inputs that didn't do anything well (by design - an ARM/Linux netbook
threatened the WinTel dominance of the day).

------
mathattack
I was an early adopter of the iPad too, but now get more use out of a very
tiny MacBook Air. The laptop slimmed down to meet it, rather than the phone
moving up. For me the key has been the ability to type.

~~~
giantrobothead
Agreed. Any device that limits my ability to communicate effectively is not
for me.

Also, as an avid CLI user, a tablet is next to useless for me. I don't really
feel like buying a bluetooth keyboard for a tablet just to optimize text
input.

~~~
mathattack
I think the iPad is most efficient as a 1 way device. Great for reading and
viewing, but not good for responding. Hence the airplane use call. Laptops
have gotten convenient enough (and strong enough batteries) to compete though.

~~~
giantrobothead
I can see the utility of the tablet as a browsing/reading/listening device.
However, I am a bit of a curmudgeon and will clutch my laptop to myself as
long as possible.

------
CmonDev
It's very good for gaming. It's a good device for your home.

------
acqq
His "love affair" is over. I'm using iPad at this very moment and no I don't
want it smaller. Just as light as possible. So my next will certainly be iPad
Air.

------
josephlord
Watch video on a TV, read on a tablet and write on a keyboard. Mobile when I'm
out or only have one hand free.

It isn't quite that simple but it isn't far off.

------
misuba
The article's right that most people want one small device and one big one.
It's just wrong that the big one most people want is a laptop or PC.

------
zalzally
I'm really enjoying the healthy debate here. It's certainly a divisive topic
with people seemingly very strong on either side.

------
lechevalierd3on
I've never cheated on my MacBook Air...

------
stevewilhelm
Tablets are great for children and seniors to casually consume email, news,
books, movies, and games.

------
alexeisadeski3
For my personal use, the Macbook Air line and Kindle have destroyed any non-
game tablet utlity.

------
tomrod
I just wish things weren't so leggy on tablets. Netflix included.

------
randomafrican
what if sales have peaked not because don't buy new tablets but rather because
people don't replace them that often ?

------
brosco45
He really likes to drop names.

------
riffic
tl;dr Gartner's trough of disillusionment.

------
marquis
Doesn't have kids..

------
Eleutheria
My kids love it.

So fuck adults and don't mess with our fun.

