

No, I’ll tell you the answer - aaronbrethorst
http://blog.asmartbear.com/advice-from-internet.html

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jasonlbaptiste
This is a really good article. There's no exact path, though startup media
likes to make you think there is. Raise tons of money? Raise no money? Ad
supported? SaaS? Is this trend over? None of it really matters. Go for what
you will commit yourself to, put a plan to it, and make sure that you're happy
with what it can produce. That's the biggest issue. Many founders will start
lifestyle businesses, want to turn them into VC backed ones, and start to
mutate what they're working on. During that mutation things go very awry. Know
who you are and embrace it.

~~~
quickpost
Great post. This reminds me of Tim Ferriss' description of identifying good
business ideas and / or approaches to learning new things (like languages).
Three simple questions (which I've defined in terms of business, but they are
broadly applicable):

1\. Effective - will the business actually make money?

2\. Adherence - is it a business you can stick with and commit to over the
long haul?

3\. Efficiency - will the business make you money in a way that uses time
efficiently.

Listed in priority order. Great way of evaluating potential business ideas for
me. #2 is particularly useful as a filter, as there are LOTS of ways to make
money, but a much more limited set of ideas that you actually want to do long
term.

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mattty
Good article highlighting the equally valid modes of rationalising different
options.

A useful book that can help one think through these (and many more) types of
decisions is "The Founder's Dilemmas"[1]. In it, Wasserman (former professor
of mine) explores the trade-offs one must make in founding, with examples.
Very helpful.

[1] [http://www.noamwasserman.com/book/](http://www.noamwasserman.com/book/)

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hacknat
I like this a lot. I'm really sick of the debates regarding appropriate
motivations that are so common on this site. It's not that motivation doesn't
matter, it's just that it's different for everybody. The one part of a start-
up that gets to be personal that gets to be yours, no matter what, is why
you're doing it. Everything else is icing on the cake.

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rohanprabhu
I am going to be a part of a startup in the near future (really the "near"
future.. 1-2 weeks to say) and the numbers although haven't deterred me, but I
will admit, I am a bit scared. So, I am just going to finally ask this. What
percentage of startups fail? I know that it is more likely I will fail rather
than succeed, but I would really like to know the odds.

~~~
timr
It's irrelevant to you. Even if 99.999% of risks fail, your chance of success
is independent of the the failures of other people.

The question you really want to ask is: what's the expected risk/reward ratio?
And if you're in any kind of demand for your professional skills, your risk is
your opportunity cost (which you can reasonably well predict), plus the small
chance of some horrible disaster that leaves you unable to finish (which you
can't predict, but applies mostly independently of the amount of career risk
you're taking). Then there's the the thing that people get hung up on: the
risk that the project will tank, and you'll have an inexplicable gap on your
resume. If you're in a place like the valley, this risk is largely imaginary
-- as long as you comport yourself professionally, taking a chance on a
startup isn't going to hurt your career.

Initially, assume your expected reward is near zero. You're walking on to the
casino floor, and you're there to have a good time. You want to keep the game
going as long as you can, but you're not prepared to gamble more than you can
afford to lose, and you assume that the house has the odds. Your calculation
is: how much am I willing to lose on this activity?

Later, if you achieve some success, you can modify your risk/reward
calculation. Is your project growing? Bump the expected reward. Did you raise
money, and can now afford to pay yourself? Reduce the risk. Decide where your
personal loss threshold is for this particular bet, and when you cross that
line, stop.

In my opinion, the thing you should worry about is not financial risk, but
_life_ risk: is this what you _really_ want to do with your one-and-only
youth? It's a much harder question to answer, but a good place to start is: do
you really, honestly, truly give a shit about the thing you're planning to
build? If not, stop now. No amount of "success" will make it worth the pain
you're going to endure. So if what you really want is comfort and a peaceful
life, get a job somewhere, and don't regret your decision. Otherwise, proceed
forward with the knowledge that you're doing something you _have_ to do, even
if only for a little while.

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noelwelsh
They are all correct, and would all be interesting lives to lead, which is
most of the goal to me.

