
Fukushima Emergency - mxfh
http://www.snopes.com/photos/technology/fukushima.asp
======
patrickg_zill
The map is easily debunked, but, the fact is that the reactor(s) are not
contained.

In addition to the needed nuclear materials for the reactor itself, there
were/are at least 89 tons of used rods, "hot" enough that they need to be
constantly cooled, stored on the Reactor 3 site.

You can read about the Reactor 4/5/6 spent fuel pools here:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_units_4,_5_an...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_units_4,_5_and_6#Spent_fuel_pool)

Read this January 3, 2014 Tepco press release and notice the use of the word
"assume" : [http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-
com/release/2014/123333...](http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-
com/release/2014/1233338_5892.html) ... it means "we don't know".

~~~
mpyne
> In addition to the needed nuclear materials for the reactor itself, there
> were/are at least 89 tons of used rods, "hot" enough that they need to be
> constantly cooled, stored on the Reactor 3 site.

There's no need to put "hot" in quotes, it's not a synonym for anything, it
means the spent fuel is _literally hot_ as in temperature.

It is true that the _reason_ they are hot is because of ongoing heat
generation from the fission fragment/decay products in the spent fuel. But
that is an issue at _literally every other_ uranium-fueled PWR or BWR reactor.
They _all_ need to be cooled until the decay heat finally dissipates.

Failing to cool the fuel rods would not turn them any more radioactive than
they already are. Rather, the loss of physical fuel integrity once the fuel
melts would release the existing radioactivity into the spent fuel pool (which
essentially means the nearby air, since the fuel pool would not have water in
it by definition in this scenario).

Luckily it's the easiest thing in the world to avert this; just keep water on
the fuel rods, and there is no problem. You can even avoid circulating the
water if you wish, the boiling water will remove heat just fine (but in this
case you must still pour more water in to maintain the level).

The loss of full containment is certainly unfortunate, but it's nothing more
than that. It's certainly better than having the entire reactor core
assemblies dumped out straight into the ocean, but even _that_ would not be
the disaster implied by many if you run the numbers.

~~~
patrickg_zill
If you read the links I posted, you would know that a safe temperature for the
surrounding water is up to 65C. Why don't you read the links to answer for
yourself, what happens if the water goes above that temperature?

(BTW I did use hot in quotes, to make it clear I was referring to the fact
that there is still low level fission occurring.)

~~~
mpyne
> Why don't you read the links to answer for yourself, what happens if the
> water goes above that temperature?

Because I have already told you how water temperatures are safe from a _heat
transfer_ perspective.

I should hope I don't have to remind you not to immerse yourself in water that
is too hot, but the fuel itself will be fine if it can be cooled, and it can
be cooled by nothing more than water immersion.

This is, after all, how the fuel rods at Unit 4 _were being cooled_ for a
short time during the Fukushima meltdown.

------
DanielBMarkham
It would be interesting to try to come up with some scenario that would
maximize the damage caused by Fukushima, then model whether that would be a
problem for any other county.

Explosion? Complete melt-down? Meteor strike? Super volcanic eruption?

Interestingly, worst-case might be to have the reactor limp along while
continuing to cool it with water that's being pumped back into the ocean. Like
they're doing now. Having it totally destroyed, or pushed under the sea,
although perhaps creating an bad initial spike, probably wouldn't release as
much radiation long-term.

This entire incident has become a test for how scientifically literate people
are. And most folks aren't hitting on much.

~~~
eponeponepon
> [...] Meteor strike? Super volcanic eruption?

Once your scenario reaches that kind of scale, I think the effect of Fukushima
itself is going to be fairly negligible... :)

~~~
nitrogen
I think the tsunami alone was large enough that we should consider the
Fukushima aftermath as negligible in comparison.

------
tezzer
Back of the envelope: If there are 100,000 gallons (400 tons) of radioactive
water leaking into the pacific ocean in Japan per day, to be diluted by the
187 quintillion gallons of water already there (not hyperbole, a reasonable
estimate based on 70 cubic million miles of water), than the ocean is 1
1,880,000,000,000,000th of a percent more radioactive per day. Or basically
zero. It would be interesting to calculate how much more radioactive the water
gets from alpha particles in sunlight shining on the water than from
Fukushima, but I'm not feeling up to it at the moment.

~~~
mikeash
"Alpha particles in sunlight"? Come on. This kind of nonsense just gives
ammunition to the crazies.

~~~
tezzer
Yeah, but at least if they're spouting total nonsense it's easier to identify
and ignore ;)

------
joshfraser
My dad keeps sending me links warning of the radiation that is hitting the
west coast. I think it's a sign of how little we trust our government and
media these days. Would the government tell us the truth if we were actually
at risk or would they lie to avoid the mass panic that would undoubtedly
ensue?

~~~
mpyne
> Would the government tell us the truth if we were actually at risk or would
> they lie to avoid the mass panic that would undoubtedly ensue?

Another good question is, supposing that a mass panic would be elicited if
there were honestly a wave of harmful contamination approaching, which answer
_should_ the government give?

One might reasonably assume that the government should give the answer which
causes the least public disorder (and subsequent harm to the public).

But this doesn't mean you shouldn't trust the government _per se_ , this means
you should educate yourself so that you have some basic understanding of the
likelihood of things like Fukushima affecting the West Coast. It does no good
to say that you can't abdicate your rationality and trust to the government
exclusively, if you then simply abdicate those to whoever is screeching the
loudest.

------
gammarator
Not that xkcd is an authoritative source, but this chart helps give you the
right orders of magnitude:

[https://xkcd.com/radiation/](https://xkcd.com/radiation/)

The extra dose in Tokyo immediately after Fukushima was only twice a standard
chest x-ray, or one NYC->LA flight.

So any excess radiation reaching the US West Coast will be diluted to
negligibility.

~~~
snogglethorpe
Even that seems a bit questionable...

Living near Tokyo, after 3/11 I rather compulsively monitored the various web-
available radiation counters, and many of them also stored historical data.
The readings were almost universally so close to normal background radiation
levels that it was questionable whether there was any difference at all. There
was, as I recall, one notable spike at some point, but it was only notable
because it was above background level; it was _way_ too small to have any
health impact.

[Radiation levels were a little higher in places like Chiba that are closer to
Fukushima, but still quite firmly in the "no possible effect" region.]

~~~
saryant
I was traveling in Tokyo on 3/11 and _still_ have to fend off questions about
my health when I tell people about it.

I did cut my trip short, flew out on 3/15\. I wasn't worried about the
radiation, I just didn't feel comfortable taking up resources in a country
that had just suffered so much damage. In fact, I recently got back from a 3
week trip around Japan to finish my original trip.

------
snogglethorpe
Thank the heavens for snopes.com, a breath of fresh research in a rumor-and-
conspiracy-choked web...

~~~
ceejayoz
[http://xkcd.com/250/](http://xkcd.com/250/)

------
pella
more:

== 1 ==

 _" Nuclear Fallout Map

Claim: Message details effects of nuclear fallout from

Japan across the western United States."_ FALSE

[http://www.snopes.com/photos/technology/fallout.asp](http://www.snopes.com/photos/technology/fallout.asp)

== 2 ==

 _" Claim: Giant mutant killer hornets created by exposure

to radiation from the Fukushima nuclear plant have killed

several people in Nebraska. "_ FALSE

[http://www.snopes.com/politics/satire/hornets.asp](http://www.snopes.com/politics/satire/hornets.asp)

------
emmelaich
My favourite link for the current Fukushima 'news' is
[http://deepseanews.com/2013/11/true-facts-about-ocean-
radiat...](http://deepseanews.com/2013/11/true-facts-about-ocean-radiation-
and-the-fukushima-disaster/)

------
downandout
Some people have suggested (I have not personally researched it enough to take
a position) that a solicitation by the Department of Health and Human Services
for 14 million Potassium Iodide pills to be delivered by February 1 is proof
that the government believes that radiation is reaching the West Coast at
harmful levels.

[http://1.usa.gov/1eVKiQT](http://1.usa.gov/1eVKiQT)

I'm guessing it's not happening and this solicitation is unrelated, although
the time from the solicitation (December 6) to the delivery date is very
compressed for it to be a normal US government order. It reflects an urgent
desire to stock the pills for _some_ reason.

~~~
mikeash
I can sort of respect not taking a position if you haven't researched it...
but on the other hand, why even _mention_ it if you haven't researched it
enough to take a position? The claim smells like Grade A Bullshit, and while
that's not necessarily enough to dismiss it outright, it does mean that you
should check into it before spreading it around.

Some brief research indicates that there is a national stockpile of potassium
iodide maintained for emergency response to domestic nuclear disasters. The
tablets in this stockpile don't last forever, and have to be replenished. This
is probably just a stockpile replenishment.

More info here:

[http://www.nrc.gov/about-nrc/emerg-preparedness/about-
emerg-...](http://www.nrc.gov/about-nrc/emerg-preparedness/about-emerg-
preparedness/potassium-iodide.html)

~~~
downandout
I mentioned it because the solicitation is a fact that may have a place in the
discussion. Even if ultimately proven unrelated, I don't think it's
irresponsible to bring up hard facts that can add to the discussion.

------
benihana
Thanks for this, my 'skeptical' sister in law will believe snopes.

------
webwielder
Misreporting like this for me always drives home the idea that historical
veracity is laughable. We can't even get stuff happening now right!

~~~
agumonkey
It goes both ways, current information is full of noise and reach for people
who have neither time or knowledge to filter/integrate what come to them.
History is sometimes made by dedicated people who try to deduce quite
mathematically from very small pieces of different kind of information that
cross check each other (when possible). In either cases, patience is needed.

~~~
mpyne
Indeed, even today there are good historical books being written about events
as far away as WWII. And I'm not talking about new books that restate old
research, often they'll have unique insight to provide from detailed
historical study on topics that had been incorrectly assumed to be fully
fleshed-out.

------
davvid
Is radiation caused by Fukushima being found in fish sold in the US? Yes. Is
it a cause for concern? Probably not.

Source: [http://news.stanford.edu/news/2012/may/tuna-radioactive-
mate...](http://news.stanford.edu/news/2012/may/tuna-radioactive-
materials-053012.html)

------
dlazerka
Wow the article map measures contamination in "cm"? I never knew contamination
is measured in centimeters, what a discovery!

------
pella
better maps

"A numerical simulation of global transport of atmospheric particles emitted
from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant"

[http://www-aos.eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp/nakamura_lab/PDF/Takemura...](http://www-
aos.eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp/nakamura_lab/PDF/Takemura_et_al_SOLA2011_v2.1.pdf)

and

[http://www.pnas.org/content/108/35/14422/F2.expansion.html](http://www.pnas.org/content/108/35/14422/F2.expansion.html)

[http://www.pnas.org/content/108/35/14422/F3.expansion.html](http://www.pnas.org/content/108/35/14422/F3.expansion.html)

------
spacemanmatt
Argh, I can't believe this image continues to resurface out of context. How
entirely frustrating.

------
iterationx
starfish are all dying. is there a snopes and an cute xkcd for that as well?

~~~
mpyne
Well a good start would be to figure out why are they dying? Or better yet,
_which_ starfish are dying? Where are they at? What is the death rate? What
_other_ factors have changed in the habitat? Etc. etc.

------
clockworkelf
I'm calling bullshit on this article. Despite misdeeds, wrongdoings,
corruption and outright lies by TEPCO and IAEA this article poo-poos the long-
term impact of this international disaster.

"No matter what happens in Fukushima, it's not going to be a problem over
here." \-- Eric Norman

NO MATTER WHAT?? That's a pretty big statement. Especially since that, when
radiation levels were detected to increase, the EPA just raised the minimum
level of harmful radiation to a higher level. See?? Not a problem anymore.

[http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/01/governments-
worldwide...](http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/01/governments-worldwide-
raise-acceptable-radiation-levels-based-upon-politics-not-science.html)

"With the amount of dilution that would occur, any kind of release in Japan
would be non-detectable here," said David Yogi

But it has been detected...

[http://www.nbcnews.com/science/leaky-fukushima-nuclear-
plant...](http://www.nbcnews.com/science/leaky-fukushima-nuclear-plant-raises-
seafood-poisoning-concerns-6C10963427)

TEPCO is likely connected to the japanese mob:

[http://rt.com/news/fukushima-workers-violations-
yakuza-730/](http://rt.com/news/fukushima-workers-violations-yakuza-730/)

The IAEA is there is promote nuclear power:

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISu7O47d1Ko](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISu7O47d1Ko)

US sailors claim cancer from Fukushima assistance:

[http://www.foxnews.com/us/2013/12/20/sickened-by-service-
mor...](http://www.foxnews.com/us/2013/12/20/sickened-by-service-more-us-
sailors-claim-cancer-from-helping-at-fukushima/)

Finally, the worst part of the cleanup is still yet to happen:

[http://fairewinds.org/media/in-the-news/mission-
impossible-f...](http://fairewinds.org/media/in-the-news/mission-impossible-
fukushima-scientists-brace-for-riskiest-nuclear-fuel-clean-up-yet)

The snopes article is a form of deceptive propaganda and is all-around
bullshit.

~~~
ParkerK
Your arguments of TEPCO links to the Japanese Mob is irrelevant, as the Snopes
article discusses on whether or not the radiation levels are effecting the US.

Also, the link you gave on the US raising safe level markings is not a
respected news source, and the article only links to other articles from the
site as "sources". If's fine to call BS on an article on HN, but make sure you
give proper backing to your claims, the post you just wrote doesn't.

