
SpaceX Launch Targeting 6:03pm ET, Extreme Weather Preventing First Stage Recovery - bsmith
http://www.spacex.com/press/2015/02/11/dscovr-launch-update
======
b_emery
Map of significant wave height in feet for the Atlantic:

[https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-
bin/wxmap_single.cg...](https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-
bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ww3_atlantic&dtg=2015021112&prod=sgwvht&tau=000)

tldr: Not a good day for boating

------
soperj
That sucks, I really was looking forward to the first stage recovery attempt.
Does this mean in the future(if they ever manage to do it) that they'll scrap
first stage recoveries in terrible weather?

~~~
sandstrom
They want to return the first stage to land in the future (at least when
possible, depends on the launch trajectory etc iirc). So high waves won't be
an issue when they start returning the rocket to the launch site.

Also, I guess if reuse becomes routine and they need to land in the sea
(because there aren't enough fuel to return to land) they could build a huge
vessel capable of handling high waves.

~~~
joezydeco
If reuse becomes routine and the necessary authorities approve, they'll land
on solid ground near the launch site. The floating rig was just for the
initial tests.

~~~
sandworm
Near the launch site? That seems a little ambitious, and expensive. Are they
planning on doing a u-turn in high atmo? The energy required would be massive.
Or are they planning on doing an orbit of some sort?

Doesn't the falcon heavy animation show the stages all landing at a different
facility?

Given that most every launch will point in a different direction from the
launch site (different inclinations), boats would seem the best option. They
could then haul the stage back to base by sea.

~~~
elmin
Yes, it's called a boostback burn, and it's been a part of every landing
attempt thus far. The first stage has burned so much fuel at the stage
separation that it takes much less to return it home than it did to accelerate
it. You are correct though that it limits the payload capacity of the
platform.

I believe the Falcon Heavy animation shows the rockets returning to the launch
site.

~~~
pbreit
Also, aren't they planning to launch from California and/or Texas in the
future?

~~~
mikeash
They've already launched from California, at Vandenberg AFB. They've begun
constructing a drone ship for landing future rockets launched from Vandenberg,
named Of Course I Still Love You (the one currently in use for KSC launches is
called Just Read the Instructions).

And yes, they are currently constructing a new spaceport in Texas near
Brownsville at the far southeastern corner of the state. Completion and first
launches are anticipated in 2016. I'd guess they might use the current drone
ship for landings from that one as well, but a lot can change in 2+ years so
we'll have to see.

------
senko
> _The rocket will still attempt a soft landing in the water through the storm
> (producing valuable landing data),_

The waves only prevent attempt at landing on the barge. They can still test
the stabilization (under very adverse conditions!).

So while this may not be as exciting for us observers, it'll still be very
useful for SpaceX.

------
krschultz
They're not kidding, significant wave height in that area is 20 feet at the
moment. Yikes.

[http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047](http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047)

------
kodis
I was really looking forward to watching the landing attempt. At this point,
I'm hoping for another launch delay pushing the attempt back to the 20th.

------
Tossrock
I don't understand the reasoning here; how could launching today with a
guaranteed failure to recover possibly be more valuable than delaying another
day or two with a shot at recovery? The only way it makes sense to me is if
sea heights are predicted to remain unmanageably high for unacceptably long,
or the chance of recovery was very low to begin with.

~~~
dabeeeenster
Probably because someone is paying them to launch a satellite into orbit?

Not trying to be snarky - I have no idea! But that could be reason?

~~~
Tossrock
Someone who's already been delayed twice. Clearly they are willing to accept
some margin of delay. The question I was posing is, how could delaying one
more day be worth more (ie cost to SpaceX) than the value of the recovered
rocket times the probability of recovery. And the correct answer is in the top
response, which is that due to the moon's position, it would be a delay of
over a week, not just another day.

~~~
dandelany
> Someone who's already been delayed twice.

Yeah, due to weather and technical problems. Obviously there's no way of
getting around those. It would be a much bigger deal to the customer to delay
just because "SpaceX wants to".

> how could delaying one more day be worth more (ie cost to SpaceX) than the
> value of the recovered rocket times the probability of recovery. And the
> correct answer is ... it would be a delay of over a week, not just another
> day

No, even if they had a launch window tomorrow, they would not have delayed
another day. The correct answer is that the _price_ of delaying just to
conduct an optional test is _decreased confidence_ from potential launch
customers that their payloads will not be delayed due to SpaceX's whims,
customers who already question SpaceX's ability to launch on time. When
someone pays you tens of millions of dollars, you don't get to delay their
flight just because you want to test something experimental - it doesn't work
that way. SpaceX will have many more opportunities to test their landing
procedures, it's not worth pissing off a customer just to be more aggressive
on the recovery timeline.

------
trose
This is really disappointing. I've been psyching myself up for the landing for
weeks now. :(

~~~
astrodust
This will not be the last attempt. There's a dozen launches slated this year:
[http://spacexstats.com/upcoming.php](http://spacexstats.com/upcoming.php)

I can't wait to see how the Heavy turns out.

------
AYBABTME
Wonder when they plan their next attempt, I think they seek support from their
customers before attempting recoveries, so maybe they couldn't turn around and
try again next launch. Hopefully I'm wrong.

~~~
Sanddancer
Given it's an instantaneous launch window, I think just proving that they can
launch satellites right on the nose is a useful demonstration on its own.
While it's a shame that the rocket won't be recovered, they'll still get
telemetrics from the landing, they just won't get to try a refurbishment.

~~~
elmin
This isn't their first instantaneous launch window.

~~~
mikeash
Specifically, ISS launches have an instantaneous window, and SpaceX has done
five of those so far.

