
CO2 and Climate Task Force (AQ-9) (1980) [pdf] - andrewgioia
https://insideclimatenews.org/sites/default/files/documents/AQ-9%20Task%20Force%20Meeting%20%281980%29.pdf
======
jon37
From the conclusion:

"At a 3% per annum growth rate of CO2, a 2.5℃ rise brings world economic
growth to a halt in about 2025."

I wonder if attempts by the scientific community to persuade world leaders of
the severity of this problem would have been more successful if this had been
more emphasized, rather than inches of sea level rise, wildlife extinctions,
effects on poor populations, etc. If there is one thing political and
financial leaders understand, it is their own dependence on continued economic
growth - and continued _expectations_ of economic growth.

~~~
whatshisface
I don't think global warming is on track to bring world economic growth to a
halt by 2025, that's only 5.5 years away. As emphasized in the report, the
models of the time had a very wide cone of uncertainty - on one end you had
the immediate destruction of human civilization, on the other you had a slow
meandering towards harsher conditions. Fortunately for us we got off easy
relative to what could have been. (Although, it's not right to say we "got
off," we are continuing to put CO2 into the atmosphere and unless we stop we
will eventually push it far enough make good on every ghastly possibility they
considered in the 80s.)

~~~
djsumdog
The trouble is CO2 isn't even a pressing problem compared to everything else.
There are so man forms of pollution that are killing things right now. There
are the great garbage patches in both the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. There
are the lakes of sludge in factories cities in China. There are the coal fly
ash dams at coal plants all around the US (and dams like the one in Kingston
Fossil Plant that broke and contaminated the entire watershed between
Nashville and Knoxivlle), water supply contamination from fracking, the
ongoing ramifications from the BP oil spill in the Gulf that is still not
really cleaned up, but everyone has forgotten about.

To solve all these other very current sources of pollution that are killing us
right now, we need to consume less. We need more trains, fewer cars,
cellphones that are designed to last 8~12 years instead of 2~4, industry that
isn't based on infinite growth, more automation, less fear over loss to
automation, and just a huge change in the way we think about the world,
consumption and the economy.

All of these changes will reduce CO2, but CO2 is just a symptom of a much much
larger problem. People will continue to argue about CO2, and it'd a red
haring. Humanity needs to focus on the actual Flu and not the runny
nose/sniffles.

~~~
ncmncm
This is very far from correct.

CO2 is not just disrupting the climate, it is also acidifying the seas, which
will soon suffer an eco-collapse as shellfish and coral become unable to
precipitate calcium out of the water.

There is a nearly commensurate problem. If existing A/C and refrigeration
systems end up venting their HFCs, that will cause as much climate disruption
as CO2, and remain in the atmosphere for centuries. Somehow we have to drain
every failed compressor and incinerate it all.

------
martincollignon
Want to make a difference as a technologist?

Feel free to join these communities actively looking for support and with
ongoing projects (that are alive):

\- [https://climateaction.tech/](https://climateaction.tech/)

\- [https://techimpactmakers.com/](https://techimpactmakers.com/)

\- [https://www.tmrow.com/](https://www.tmrow.com/)

~~~
dietdrb
Thanks for posting this. I have a climate change related project that is
getting traction and its needs are exceeding my ability to keep up with the
dev work. Hopefully these communities have someone who would like to help. If
anyone on HN is interested in helping, you can find details in my profile.

------
NeedMoreTea
So very succinct.

"Timescale for significant impact, very roughly 50 years"

"1°C Rise (2005): Barely noticeable"

"2.5°C Rise (2038): Major economic consequences, Strong regional dependence"

"5°C Rise (2067): Globally Catastrophic effects"

The world has released more _since_ that document was produced, than in the
whole of human history before it.

~~~
hanniabu
> The world has released more since that document was produced, than in the
> whole of human history before it.

Unfortunately there's still a lot of people that think this is a natural cycle
and that it's not caused by humans. The sad truth is that for anything drastic
to happen we will probably need to wait another 20-30 years for (a) the
consequences to be right in your face, and (b) a majority of the old decision
makers holding us back to be dead, retired, or irrelevant (no longer have the
pull whisper in new decision maker's ears).

~~~
NeedMoreTea
20-30 years and we're in chaos, and have to go into reverse emissions.

In Europe there seems to be a growing public awareness and will to respond,
the EU might catch up to public opinion. It's been in our face consequence
wise for most of the last 10 years. Summers we expect once or twice in a
lifetime coming every 2 or 3 years is kinda hard to not notice...

~~~
hanniabu
Notable is difference from in your face. I'm referring to regions drastically
changing. I know it will be too late then, which absolutely sucks. This is why
I don't think we'll get through this as a majority of the population... and
this is coming from someone that's typically an optimist.

------
thinkcontext
This has been public for several years, any reason in particular to post it
here now?

------
alex_young
Anyone living in Europe now will tell you the problem is of dire importance
today. 2025 may have actually been a conservative estimate for the halt of
global economic growth.

Today we have a massive heat wave in June which threatens half a billion
people in the first world who have never needed air conditioning. France has
already seen high temps of 115 f.

It boggles the mind to think the American government is actively accelerating
this crisis.

~~~
jesssse
The sun is getting hotter, is America to blame for that too?

CO2 doesn't matter.

~~~
dang
Would you please stop posting flamebait to HN? We ban accounts that do this
repeatedly.

[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html)

