
Waymo One: The next step on our self-driving journey - yarapavan
https://medium.com/waymo/waymo-one-the-next-step-on-our-self-driving-journey-6d0c075b0e9b
======
a-wu
I can’t wait for wheelchair accessible vehicles to be equipped with this
technology. It looks like they’re using Chrysler Pacificas which already have
wheelchair ramp conversions from VMI and Braun. Since the self driving
equipment seems to be on the top of the vehicle, it seems trivial to mount it
on a converted Pacifica. As a quadriplegic who doesn’t drive (yet), the
possibilities with this excite me greatly.

~~~
creato
> It looks like they’re using Chrysler Pacificas which already have wheelchair
> ramp conversions from VMI and Braun.

How common is this for other makes/models? If it is rare, I wonder if it
influenced Google's choice of vehicle?

~~~
dsfyu404ed
Rear entry is probably going to have physical fitment issues depending on the
amount of space in the chassis to work with. Minivans are pretty homogeneous
now (it's not the late 80s anymore) so this isn't really an issue but I bet
there's a model or two out there that are simply a no-go because some
component that can't practically be relocated is in the way.

Side entry is going to be able to fit a wider range of vehicles because the
installation is less invasive so you can support more vehicles for cheaper
(kind of like how a static webpage can be viewed on basically anything but a
fancy web app has a narrower range of browsers).

You can get a rear entry kit for pretty much every minivan that's on the
market. You can get a side entry kit for that and more. I didn't bother
checking but I know I've seen side entry but never rear entry kits on full
size vans (also it makes sense that you can't put a rear entry kit on a full
size van because there's a frame in the way).

Fundamentally you're limited by head room. You can't have people smashing
their faces into the top of the door opening.

Google's choice was probably not influenced by the availability wheelchair van
conversion kits.

~~~
V99
The electronics for the self-driving are apparently in the trunk (the cars
have a sticker on the back that says rear storage is not available) so a rear
entry is not likely to happen.

------
cromwellian
Keeping the safety drivers in the beginning, scaling up, and getting a year or
more worth of actual real world use, before slowly scaling back the drivers is
what I'd call a very responsible choice.

IMHO, to do less would be reckless showboating that could do unimaginable
damage to the AV industry, as well as end up endangering lives.

In the tech industry, we don't like to wait, we like moving fast, taking
risks, shipping MVPs, learning by shipping, etc. And for the next great Camera
filter app, perhaps that makes sense, but not for cars, planes, or medical
equipment.

~~~
rsync
"Keeping the safety drivers in the beginning, scaling up, and getting a year
or more worth of actual real world use, before slowly scaling back the drivers
is what I'd call a very responsible choice."

A whole year! Truly sage-like wisdom from the MoveFastBreakThings generation
of technical development.

It is simultaneously comical, exasperating and sad to watch this tragedy
unfold.

We will slowly build our own, modern Deuteronomy - instead of forbidding the
consumption of shellfish or stipulating gifts for former slaves, ours will
talk about agency and skin-in-the-game and aligned incentives ...

Meanwhile, there will be a multi year (decade ?) period of experimentation
where we will all be terrified as we drive at highway speeds and another
vehicle approaches that road at a right-angle. Currently, _I know_ what that
vehicle will do, because all other choices lead to death-of-driver.

But in this near (and short lived) future, that other vehicle _could do
anything_.

~~~
bgentry
That’s funny, a month ago my car was totaled by a guy who fell asleep and blew
through a red light. That happened at a right angle but only at 30mph. Since
then I’ve been concerned at every intersection about what the other cars will
do.

I’m not sure how much of it can be blamed on cell phone use, but I swear that
human drivers have been getting substantially worse over the last few years
(at least in the Bay Area). It seems like every single week I avoid a major
accident from somebody doing something stupid or not paying attention. And I
don’t even drive that much!

So while Waymo continues improving, it appears that the bar for them to be
better than human drivers also keeps getting lowered.

~~~
rconti
I think so much of it is just a scale issue. I grew up in a mid-sized suburb
in the Northwest just a couple decades ago. Most road were only 2, or maximum
4 lanes. The idea of driving around without your headlights on in the dark
would be unfathomable. And if you did, you'd get honked at, flashed, and
presumably at some point within 5 or 10 minutes, a police officer would see
you and stop you.

That area's gotten bigger, and I moved to the Bay Area, which is bigger still.
2 decades on, It's not even worth COUNTING the number of vehicles without
headlights on in the dark or rain. I never thought I'd be one to complain
about too few police, but I see at least 10-20x as many vehicles with no
headlights as I see cops (for example). Much of my commuting is on the
freeway, and CHP are few and far between but also police aren't so common on
surface streets either. And when they are there, they don't bother pulling
anyone over for "small potatoes" stuff like this. I don't know if they're
waiting for the next violent crime, or what, but it would be nice if they did
a little "broken windows" policing.

Why don't they bother? I don't know. Probably because everyone's busy,
everyone has a sob story, their stupid new car with its light-up instruments
on 24x7 makes it LOOK like the headlights are on, the daytime running lights
make you THINK the headlights are on, are you really going to give a ticket to
someone just trying to pick up their kid from school?

I wish the answer was YES, but it just feels like everyone's stopped knowing
or caring. When you don't own the same vehicle for 15 years, you have no idea
how the controls on this week's lease work, there are too many cars on the
road, the problem has gotten too big, tech has taken over too much of it..
everything just feels out of control.

~~~
UncleEntity
IIRC the #1 reason people get pulled over for drunk driving is because they
don't have their headlights on, the police for sure are on the lookout for
that.

In Arizona you pretty much have to make the cops do their job unless they
think they can get you for a DUI then they'll pull you over for the slightest
infraction. The things I've seen people do when there's a cop right next to me
at an intersection and not get stopped is mind boggling.

~~~
rconti
Yeah, the problem is, in the winter, no headlights during the early evening
hours, no big deal. 3am, they're out for blood if you don't have your lights
on, for sure.

------
gniv
The link at the bottom of that article is pointing to another Medium post with
details of the launch: [https://medium.com/waymo/riding-with-waymo-one-
today-9ac8164...](https://medium.com/waymo/riding-with-waymo-one-
today-9ac8164c5c0e)

Notably, "At the start, Waymo-trained drivers will be riding along to
supervise our vehicles for riders’ comfort and convenience."

Edit: Re-reading my comment, it sounds negative, so I want to acknowledge that
I think this is a big deal. No matter how "soft" this launch, it's still a
historic moment.

~~~
jbob2000
Mark these words, "At the start", because we'll be hearing them for the next
10 years until Waymo closes up shop. That they are going to market with
drivers in the car means that the business has pivoted from "can we do
driverless taxi" to "can we make money as uber-but-with-employees".

The next announcement from Waymo will be that they are cutting staff "mostly
from R&D". The announcement after that will be that they are opening up the
Waymo app for anyone to be a driver. The announcement after that will be that
they are closing up shop or being sold to Uber.

~~~
bryanlarsen
Mark these words. In 10 years time we'll still be hearing the same comments
about Waymo & their competitors because there still will be certain
combinations of passenger, route & conditions that Waymo will refuse to take
without a safety driver along.

But since Waymo will handle the vast majority of rides we'll just tune out
those comments.

Handling all rides & conditions is a very hard problem and it'll take decades
to solve.

But scaling from "a few" to "most" is a much easier problem and one that I
have confidence that Waymo will achieve. And "most" can be very useful &
profitable.

~~~
TomMarius
I assume we're talking about city driving. I'm not sure about the USA, but
being in Europe, the average speed my car says I go is 28.5 km/h. Do you think
we could not solve traffic for 10 years if we slowed cars down to 30 km/h?
With assumption being that a city-wide driverless system would easily 'swim'
through the city without encountering red lights or slowdowns due to
unpredictiveness of other drivers. We could even tolerate a little bit more
errors because accidents would not be harmful too much.

~~~
bryanlarsen
I'm a big fan of Sweden's Project Zero, one leg of which is setting and
enforcing a speed limit of 30 km/h on any road or street without fully
separated pedestrian & cycle infrastructure. I don't know if self-driving will
help accomplish this everywhere, but I'd be ecstatic if it did.

> We could even tolerate a little bit more errors because accidents would not
> be harmful too much.

instead of "harmful too much" you can simply use "fatal". 30km/h is a pretty
magic value: below that speed pedestrian collisions are very rarely fatal.
Serious perhaps, but not fatal. Above that speed they are often fatal.

~~~
njarboe
About the speed of a sprinting human, unsurprisingly.

~~~
Judgmentality
The average human cannot sprint that fast. I'd peg the average person
sprinting closer to half that (obviously there's a lot of variance, but I
think only the top 1% of athletes could run 30 kph even for 5 seconds). For a
frame of reference, try to run at the top speed of a treadmill (most max out
at 15 mph, and most people can't go that fast - at least not at the gym).

~~~
mr_toad
The fastest athletes can max out at nearly 45 kph when given a running start.

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Footspeed](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Footspeed)

But I’m not sure that the average human could even run 100m these days.

------
Tempest1981
One feature I like is the LCD displays for passengers, which (supposedly) show
what the Waymo car is "thinking".

So if the car stops unexpectedly, the display might show, "waiting for a
crossing pedestrian". Ideally with a simple map diagram of what's around the
vehicle.

~~~
munificent
This is both really cool, and really smart strategically.

I'm sure the Waymo folks know that one of the largest barriers to success for
automated vehicles is public perception and fear. Each time a rider rides in
one of these, they get a beautifully rendered window into the car's brain,
which helps build the trust needed to sell the technology.

------
talawahdotnet
> _Waymo One is rolling out in the Metro Phoenix area first. Over time, we
> hope to expand to new places and more people._

You can sign up to express interest using the form at the bottom of this
page[1] (asks for your gmail address, zip code and type of phone).

P.S. Why is the mobile experience on Medium so frustratingly bad? Between the
permanent heading plus the "please download our app" heading I find it
maddening. I also find the UX around reading comments to be unnecessarily
confusing.

1\. [https://waymo.com](https://waymo.com)

~~~
spuz
Don't worry, Medium on desktop is equally bad. Two persistent banners bottom
and top plus a "pardon the interruption" popup. I really wish companies
wouldn't use Medium as their blogging platform.

~~~
kuroguro
The web annoyances ultralist really helps :)

[https://github.com/yourduskquibbles/webannoyances](https://github.com/yourduskquibbles/webannoyances)

------
11thEarlOfMar
I know this is a heated debate, but it's interesting to see the divergent
approaches that are being taken to achieve self driving. In one corner, it's
lidar-based, equipping vehicles produced by other companies, organically and
incrementally growing the navigation technology.

In the other, it's video-based with now 100s of thousands of vehicles feeding
data to a massive neural net.

Each has very well thought-out arguments for the approach they are taking, and
I expect that both would ultimately 'work' by reducing the inherent risks of
taking a car ride by a substantial amount (90%?). I think the winner will be
the one who gets to that milestone soonest.

It's entertaining to watch.

~~~
aantix
Curious; If you train a neural net to drive a car with X number of samples,
and the car does something erratic, how do you determine which data item
introduced the erratic behavior and how do you go about untraining that
behavior?

~~~
Hydraulix989
Gradient descent is done in batches and over the aggregate collection of the
training data so it's pretty lossy. Usually the error is more of the fault of
the learned model itself, and then the culprit is attributed to neuron
"mis"-activations post-hoc. Often, problems take the form of generalization
error instead. And yes, all of these problems are still quite unsolved, which
is why we don't have end-to-end neural network-based self-driving cars, we
just have rule based systems with a perception framework that just uses
convnets for vision.

~~~
ghaff
I think there's this popular perception that you just stream in lots of data
from road vehicles and the driving just gets better over time--rather than
continuing to discover individual edge cases more or less manually and
updating rules based on those.

------
Animats
_" At first, Waymo-trained drivers will supervise our Waymo One vehicles."_

That's about where they've been for years now - almost autonomous, with a
safety driver. Back in November, Waymo started sending some cars out without a
safety driver. But they backed off on that.[1]

I'm disappointed. I thought Waymo was ready to launch a real self-driving
system. But no, not yet.

[1] [https://www.theinformation.com/articles/waymos-cars-play-
it-...](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/waymos-cars-play-it-safer-
after-incidents-and-driver-fatigue)

~~~
bryanlarsen
According to the article on the verge, they are testing and will continue
testing without human drivers via the Early Rider program.

~~~
oldgradstudent
Arstechnica[1] asked about it and Waymo did not deny:

> In fact, last week the Information's Amir Efrati reported that Waymo may
> actually have moved backward recently.

> "Within the past month or so, due to concerns about safety, the Alphabet
> company put so-called safety drivers back behind the wheel of its most
> advanced prototypes, ending a year-long period in which those people
> generally sat in the passenger or back seat," Efrati wrote.

> We asked Waymo about this, and a spokesperson dismissed the report as
> nothing new, saying that the company regularly changes the mix of cars with
> and without safety drivers.

[1] [https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/12/waymos-ambitious-
plans-...](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/12/waymos-ambitious-plans-for-
high-speed-taxis-could-be-holding-it-back/)

------
lawrenceyan
“Fares are based on time and distance, and customers can expect fares to be
roughly on par with what you'd pay for an Uber or Lyft trip—perhaps even a bit
lower. The above Waymo-provided screenshot shows a customer booking this trip,
which is 4.6 miles long and takes about 12 minutes. Waymo charges $7.32 for
the trip. I punched the same route into Lyft and Uber aps on Tuesday afternoon
and got quotes of $8.29 and $9.38, respectively.”

~~~
russdill
And there's absolutely no pressure to tip.

------
zaroth
I’m surprised to see, after what happened to Uber — the failure of their
safety driver to stay engaged enough to stop the car before striking a
pedestrian — that a safety driver who will be mostly disengaged from the
driving experience is still thought to add an appropriate safety margin?

~~~
UncleEntity
I'm surprised to see them use a location for the article's main photo that's
right down the street from where Uber's robocar hit that lady. The bridge in
the background is the actual street where it happened and the accident site is
not very far from there, couple hundred meters maybe?

------
notatoad
I'm confused as to what they're actually launching here. If i'm reading
correctly, their existing service which was branded as an "early rider"
program has been renamed to "waymo one", but the service hasn't actually
changed at all and is still limited to the same region and to existing users
of the early rider program?

~~~
Skunkleton
Maybe they will start charging money?

~~~
notatoad
ah, that's probably it. it does seem like they're charging now, i didn't
realize they weren't before.

------
bertil
They announced a change of brand a month ago. I guess adding “One” at the end
of the existing name counts, and I like the implication that they want to
communicate clearly on phases of the project but… Was it worth announcing a
brand change? I feel like I’m missing something.

~~~
bryanlarsen
They promised a public launch by the end of the year, and they're delivering
on their promise even if there are no substantive changes.

~~~
Fricken
It isn't public, randos in Chandler can't download the app and take a ride,
they need to be approved as members of the easy rider program. Waymo has
lifted their NDAs, so now they can talk openly about their experiences.

------
ajennings
It is interesting that the main photo on that article seems to be taken about
200 yards from where the Uber accident happened in Tempe, AZ.

------
bertil
We still do not have much clarity on the price point. The screenshot (see
gniv’s link) shows that a 24-min ride could cost around $8, with an apparent
20% rebate.

I suspect that they won’t try to under-cut Uber too dramatically but the long-
term costs are bound to be much lower if you don’t need to pay a driver. That
illustrative price seems to match this. They certainly have copied Uber’s
focus on identifying the best pick-up and drop-off based on many factors,
notably road setup. I’m less sure about child seats: their copy and photo seem
to imply that there are infant raisers. However, it would be unusual to have
those in every car. I’m not seeing a way to indicate that you want one in the
interface, and presumably, that’s a request per journey, not an account
permanent status.

People have suggested advertising but I’m not seeing any of it in the
screenshot, nor do I expect to see it any time soon, until their model has
imposed itself.

~~~
coffeedrinker
I expect the funding model for self driving taxis will be like validated
parking. You ride free (or reduced) if you spend $x at whatever business,
shopping mall, etc.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Why though? Even in places with cheap labor (so cheap drivers), they still
don’t have things like that, taxis are just cheaper.

~~~
coffeedrinker
Because if I'm Safeway and I can get elderly people to come to my business
(for shopping, prescriptions, etc.) they won't be shopping somewhere else. The
business gains/retains the clientele by providing the driving service.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Just fund a minibus from the retirement home. I think many people do that
already?

Ok, so it’s an interesting idea to use personal transit, but it could be done
already without self driving vehicles, it might be economical. But it would be
pretty niche.

~~~
coffeedrinker
It's just a thought, not a business plan :)

~~~
mft_
I think you're bang on - but it needn't be limited to driverless cars.

Honestly, I'm surprised it's not something that Google have already built
heavily into Maps. People often search for what they want (e.g. burger, pizza)
- this would be an obvious time to offer deals or discounts to drive customers
to particular businesses. You then expand to compete with particular retailers
- someone searches for Nike specifically, they get offers from the nearby
Adidas store.

This is not really any different to what happens with Google searches, where
advertisers can buy keywords related to their competitors.

------
brianbreslin
I hope they roll this out in Miami soon. Miami has some of the laxest AV
regulations in the country. Also would happily pay to not drive in this mess
every day.

~~~
asdkhadsj
As excited as I am for self driving, it makes me sad that I get car/motion
sick. I can't exploit self driving to do laptop work, reading, gaming, etc
without getting sick - all I can do is sleep basically lol.

It will be bittersweet in a self driving car realizing that since I don't have
to pay attention, I can do so much more with my time!.. and then promptly
stare out the window for an hour.

~~~
83457
Is it the motion or seeing movement out of your peripheral vision?

~~~
nashashmi
As someone who has experienced both, it is the sudden unexpected movements
that cause motion sickness. And if I am tired, my mind cannot coordinate
between the movement I see to the movement I feel.

And now I realize that in the first case, it is a personality issue where if I
am stubborn/stiff/unyielding, I will get annoyed at unexpected movements. I
find this to be true also with my wife :D

------
vyrotek
Super excited to try it soon. I've been watching them test their vehicles
around our office in Tempe all year. Hoping to take one to lunch one day.

------
tonyquart
I have read a little bit about this topic at [https://www.lemberglaw.com/self-
driving-autonomous-car-accid...](https://www.lemberglaw.com/self-driving-
autonomous-car-accident-injury-lawyers-attorneys/). I think it's interesting
to talk about this future tech. However, I personally won't risk myself to
ride inside one of these prototype. It needs to be 99% safe before I would by
one of it.

------
aresant
What zip codes is the trial / beta accepting?

I'm in AZ often enough that I'd love to try it out for purely experiential
reasons.

------
whyaduck
Is the NDA preventing pictures, video, or even discussion of the service in
effect for paying customers?

------
drewvolpe
Does anyone know if each of these has a remote operator as, I believe, the
ones in CA do?

------
spiderPig
RIP Uber.

