

Google-funded startup builds search engine + API for predicting the future - dstorrs
http://www.technologyreview.com/computing/26452/

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dododo
i wonder what happens when journalists start paying for access to recorded
future and put those predictions on the internet. i suppose it will create
prediction bubbles that are disjoint from reality. wikipedia cyclic-
reinforcement all over again.

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benologist
They already do it - just look at all the Apple blogs. The only question is
whether they'll pay for predictions vs. pull it out of their ass for pure
profit.

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olegkikin
If it really could predict the future, why don't they trade stocks using it?

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dualogy
Could be a sign that stocks are not part of the future =)

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mahmud
OT: but I really think someone perverted should create a derivative market for
people's Farmville "wealth" and other video game scores/assets.

I haven't played video games since Street Fighter II, and can't make a better
informed argument, but if the scores are public for some huge games, I think
it would be fun to bet on them (even if for "virtual currency".) Say, offer
the games in "baskets", ranging from Farmville to MindCraft to WW. Bet on
today's top score, biggest losers, etc. I say basket because individual score
picks might be gamed.

Something like this might encourage more economic and financial research into
video games, helping make the dismal science more attractive to "kids".

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bluedevil2k
In theory, this shouldn't be able to predict future financial information or
stock prices, because the stock prices should already reflect any information
that would be used in the prediction model (efficient market hypothesis). Of
course, that's just a theory. Thousands of traders think they can beat the
market with tools, models, and prediction engines of their own (though few
actually do) So, in the end, this site may attract that type of crowd, people
who think they are gleaning information to help them "win" - in actuality, I'd
be skeptical about its ability to do that though.

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olegkikin
Jane Street is an example of a company that builds models and predicts stock
prices (short term only) successfully.

<http://vimeo.com/14317442>

They made $2 billion last year, I think.

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mjcohen
Take a look at Urban Survival (<http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm>) and the
peoplenomics and halfpasthuman sites referred to there.

George Ure says some weird things, but I find the discussions and predictions
there fascinating.

All I can say is, I don't know what's going on.

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greenlblue
In times like these I think Knuth's earth shaking announcement is a good
rebuttal: <http://river-valley.tv/tug-2010/an-earthshaking-announcement>

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eddanger
This is to figure out what Apple plans to do before they do it, right?

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faragon
YAHS (Yet another Hari Seldon).

