

EMusic Says Data Supports Long Tail Theory - lnguyen
http://blog.wired.com/business/2009/01/emusic-data-sup.html

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SwellJoe
I just wanted to add that I _love_ eMusic. Holy crap, what a bunch of awesome
it is. I've been a subscriber since the first year it started, and I've never
hesitated to re-up each year, as the selection just gets bigger, and the site
just gets better and better at helping me find cool new music. Growing up, I
was the kind of kid that made the rounds of independent record stores every
week just to check out the new releases and pick up a few underground classics
from the used bins. eMusic is like a drug for someone like me...and I spend as
much each year as I used to spend per month at record stores, and end up with
at least as much music that I love (because previewing is more efficient,
reviews are right in front of me, and the cost per track is a bit lower than
the average used CD).

The interesting thing to me is that it only took one study by a somewhat
biased organization that believes strongly in, relies on, and supports, the
"blockbuster" version of the music industry, for a large number of people to
call "the long tail" bunk. When you already know what outcome you want to see,
and you have a very strongly vested interest in seeing that outcome, it'd be
foolish for folks to take those results at face value...and yet, a lot of
people have.

~~~
trapper
Agreed emusic is great.

On your last point; now we have another study, from a somewhat biased
organization that believes strongly in, relies on, and supports, the "long
tail" version of the music industry to support the long tail theory.

Another thing that may bias emusics data is that people buy a subscription to
emusic. You practically have to try out new music once you get all the music
you know. Compare that to a per-tune fee. It's a very different dataset in the
way it was constructed.

Also, sales data doesn't lie. If amazon's and others data doesn't support the
long tail theory, then why believe it? Faith? Just because you want something
to be real doesn't mean it is.

Hopefully it is real though, as a lot of business models are based on it :)

~~~
SwellJoe
_On your last point; now we have another study, from a somewhat biased
organization that believes strongly in, relies on, and supports, the "long
tail" version of the music industry to support the long tail theory._

You're absolutely right. I don't think the facts have quite come out yet. I do
think it has a lot to do with the models of the businesses doing the research.
I bet you'd find that Hulu has a pretty interesting long tail (and plenty of
blockbusters, as well), because I go there a couple of times a week, and I'm
sometimes surprised by what has bubbled to the top 50 results--quite a lot of
back catalog stuff. Even stuff that has been out of regular syndication for
years, like the original Battlestar Galactica, and other old, somewhat
forgotten shows, and shows that didn't make it very long on TV, like Firefly
and John Doe.

I don't know, as I haven't studied things very closely--I saw Anderson give
his long tail talk a few years ago, and I've read the article when it was
published, but I haven't paid it too much mind. I do know that my tastes are
squarely in the long tail. I don't watch blockbuster movies, I don't buy
blockbuster records, and I don't read blockbuster books, in general. But, I
also know that I'm not "normal" or "average" in my tastes, so I am and outlier
and not a reliable predictor of anything the average consumer is going to do.
I will point out, though, that there are more independent records being made,
more independent films being produced, and more independent literature being
produced than at any time in history. That has to be explainable _somehow_ ,
though I don't know if the long tail is the right way to explain it. Maybe
it's just bigger populations plus the Internet equals "everybody gets to makes
records/movies/literature" now.

