
Bob Lutz thinks Tesla is doomed - jaysonelliot
http://www.roadandtrack.com/car-culture/a26859/bob-lutz-tesla/
======
OrwellianChild
Previous commentary here:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10454706](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10454706)

Re-posting my comment from the prior conversation:

Bob Lutz is the author. He's moonlighting as a talking head after being the
consummate insider of the automotive industry in the United States, having
worked for all of the Big 3 (GM, Ford, and Chrysler) as well as BMW [1]. This
is pretty much like taking your advice on smoking cigarettes from R.J.
Reynolds. [2]

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Lutz_(businessman)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Lutz_\(businessman\))

[2]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R._J._Reynolds](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R._J._Reynolds)

------
sandstrom
# Gasoline is cheap

True, though in Europe prices are 200-300% higher[1]. Mostly because European
countries tax gasoline heavily, because of it's negative environmental impact.

Probably not an issue for expensive vehicles (no-one buy them for fuel
savings), but will be for cheaper models.

# Battery tech isn't special

I think this is a good point. I'd guess other auto-makers can do this fairly
easily, as long as they do it at scale (and they are good at scale in other
areas).

# Company stores doesn't work

As I've understood it they don't carry inventory in their stores, it's only a
showroom -- even in countries where they are allowed to sell directly to
consumers (all except the US). Cars still ordered, i.e. no inventory (except
for test-drive).

# Model X won't sell

I guess it's a bit too early to tell, but it seems like they are mainly
production-limited right now (which is a problem in it's own right!).

===

I think a major factor is being overlooked, which will determine both the fate
of Tesla and other car-makers: software.

I'd guess 75% of innovation in cars during the next 10 years will be in
software. The company that does this best will do really well. Tesla should be
well-positioned.

[1] [http://autotraveler.ru/en/spravka/fuel-price-in-
europe.html#...](http://autotraveler.ru/en/spravka/fuel-price-in-
europe.html#.VjE6Ha6rSHs)

------
ztratar
His logic is relatively weak. His proposal for Tesla to build a hybrid is
laughable. This is why Bob Lutz is old guard.

~~~
halleym
Everything about the Tesla vehicles is based on them not being a hybrid. The
entire design would have to be scrapped. Ha ha ha.

