

Can Microsoft Salvage Windows Phone? - kirpekar
http://techcrunch.com/2011/10/13/can-microsoft-salvage-windows-phone/

======
eatporktoo
As a person who recently switched from Android to a Windows Phone, I believe
they can. The platform itself is fantastic. Once people start using the OS
they fall in love with it. The problem is that most people don't even know
that the OS exists. Most people I talk to think that it's Windows Mobile and
that's very difficult to get the past. Now that I have had this phone for over
a month, I must admit that I am not sure I could go back to Android. Android
seems to be missing a certain polish that WP7 and iOS have. It also doesn't
help that from a design perspective Android doesn't seem to have an identity.
Many Android phone interfaces look and act differently. As a programmer this
can be a nightmare but more so as a consumer I can't just tell someone to buy
an Android phone. I have to qualify it with a specific model since they are
all so different. Windows Phone almost has the opposite problem since there is
so little variance in design from one phone to the next, but I appreciate
that. It's like the way I wish PCs were shipped - without all of that OEM
garbage that can make a fast computer as slow as a netbook out of the box.

~~~
joebadmo
I agree that the problem doesn't seem to be quality so much as mindshare.
Seems like the same thing that happened with the Zune. The product was
compelling enough, but was ultimately too little, too late.

 _Many Android phone interfaces look and act differently. As a programmer this
can be a nightmare_

I've had a few Android phones, and I wouldn't call the differences drastic. I
don't see how visual tweaks to the interface would make a big difference to
developers. Seems like hardware and OS version differences would be a much
bigger issue.

 _but more so as a consumer I can't just tell someone to buy an Android
phone._

What? I wouldn't even ever recommend someone to just get any old iPhone. When
I recommend a phone, I recommend the specific model that I think would fit
their needs. Would you recommend someone to get any old Windows computer? Any
old Mac, even? Dishonest argument.

Even as a Google fanboy, I recognize that Android has plenty of drawbacks.
You've named only imaginary ones.

~~~
ChrisLTD
Playing devil's advocate here, I wouldn't hesitate to recommend any _new_ Mac
or any new _iPhone_ to an average computer or phone user. Even Apple's lowest
priced options are up to the task of all but the most demanding applications
(state of the art 3D games, video editing, multi-track music processing,
etc.).

~~~
joebadmo
So, you'd say, "Just grab any Mac in the Apple Store."? or any iPhone?

I just recently advised a friend very carefully on whether she should get a
Macbook Air or a Macbook Pro. It was a tough decision with a lot of
considerations.

There are now 3 iPhones available at different price points with substantial
differences in speed and capability.

This really doesn't seem like a line of reasoning worth advocating.

~~~
ChrisLTD
I guess I'm comparing it to what it was like in the early 2000s and 1990s. If
someone asked me what computer they should get, I'd have to think about the
quality of the manufacturer, the processor speed, the memory, the hard drive
space and the type of removable storage (floppy, cd, dvd).

These days you can go into an Apple Store and buy the cheapest Mac Mini they
make and know you'll walk out with a good computer. You simply can't buy a
severely compromised Mac anymore. Computer hardware just isn't getting better
at fast enough pace to worry about it.

I think we're reaching that point with phones as well. The 3GS may be a
tougher sell, but I still have one and it's snappy with IOS5 and does
everything I need it to do. There are very few reasons someone would "need" an
iPhone 4 or 4S. The same can't be said for something like the iPhone 1 or 3G,
those both became dog slow.

~~~
joebadmo
It's true that there is a much greater diversity of Android handsets than
there are iOS or Windows Phone handsets. You can read that as a feature or a
bug.

I, for one, would never simply tell anyone to just get the cheapest Mac Mini
at the Apple Store. If someone is coming to me for advice, it's because they
want my informed opinion, and my advice is going to be considered in the light
of their needs.

If you're saying that you're simply tired of having to think about things like
that, then, sure, Android is too hard. I disagree that that's a problem with
Android.

~~~
ChrisLTD
There are some cheap Android phones with ancient OS's and terrible screens.
Maybe you aren't likely to end up with one, I don't know.

I'd still give someone advice about which Mac to buy, but I don't think an
uninformed buyer is going to go wrong with any of the options.

------
martythemaniak
If we agree that eventually (within 15 years or so) all phones will be
smartphones and that almost everyone on earth older than 10 will own one, you
can see why I'm still bullish on RIM and MS. A relatively small number of
companies (Apple, Google, RIM, MS) are fighting over a huge market which will
grow from millions today to hundreds of millions to billions in time. Managing
to capture or hold onto even 10% of that market will pay off handsomely.

~~~
recoiledsnake
The problem with that thinking is that this has become a war of ecosystems
from a battle of devices (to paraphrase Nokia's CEO). Only a few platforms can
hold developer attention and if you're a 10% player in 2015, the developers
might not care enough to make a version of an app for you. If the ecosystem is
not there, the users aren't, too. The desktop market exploded in the 90s, but
where were the incumbents in the mid 80s like Amiga?

This lead to Palm/HP's exit from the mobile business inspite of having a nice
product, the lack of ecosystem is quite damaging. This is the reason RIM is in
trouble too. MS has a better shot with their developer tools, developer
relations and perseverance(see XBox). Not to mention Android licensing fees
and the Windows/Office/Server cashcows. They were able to get developers to
write ~30,000 apps in less than a year for a nascent platform with zero users
one year ago.

Nokia wasn't going anywhere with Symbian, wanted to get Meego going, but it
wasn't ready fast enough on enough phones and wasn't confident on seeding yet
another new ecosystem, so they took the drastic decision of ditching it and
aligning with the WP ecosystem.

RIM is a one trick pony with nowhere to go, and the attempt to come out of the
decline with the Playbook seems to have gone badly wrong. BBM works for only
so long as a lock-in mechanism.

~~~
InclinedPlane
In the first phase of modern smartphones the core applications were enough of
a selling point: mail, browser, and maps. Now there are plenty of low-cost
phones which do all 3 of those well enough they aren't a differentiator, so
the decision point has switched to games, apps, and other features which has
put more emphasis on the ecosystem.

------
jinushaun
Like the article states, WP7 is a great OS with a polished user experience and
it should have more market share than it does, but why doesn't it? I blame
marketing.

For one, it's fucking called __Windows __Phone 7. Glad Microsoft didn't call
the XBox the Microsoft Windows Game Box. I also wonder how much of Android's
success in the US can be atributed to Verizon's Droid branding.

Secondly, Microsoft can't seem to sell coolness. Every laymen knows about the
latest hot Android or iPhone, but few know about a cool WP7 phone. You don't
have celebrities selling WP7 phones. Once again, look at Verizon and Droid.

And lastly, WP7 has very poor carrier support. Walk into any store and you'll
have Android phones lining the walls with maybe one or two WP7 phones in some
corner somewhere. Microsoft needs to convince/pay the carriers to support
their devices as first class citizens. Verizon and Android is another great
example. Or MS can pull a play from Apple's play book and sell from their own
retail stores.

------
charlesju
No. They have a fundamentally broken model. They're trying to sell a product
that is being given away for free by their competitor who has the lion share
of the market. Windows Mobile OS needs to be a step function better than its
competitors to justify the premium, and it just simply isn't that good. We
have to remember that smart phones these days are not only the user experience
of the OS, but also the apps.

I actually do think there is a way to salvage the Windows OS. And Microsoft is
not going to like it. It is to build the OS on top of Android and leverage
Android apps. Then offer a premium experience for enterprise and high-end
consumers. But Microsoft would never admit defeat in this way, and because of
that, they will fail.

~~~
woobar
Actually, that's not entirely accurate. Competitor's 'free' OS comes with
'patent fees' to MS. So if you are a HW manufacturer choosing between Android
and WP7 you will pay either way.

[1] [http://www.gottabemobile.com/2011/05/27/htc-pays-5-per-
andro...](http://www.gottabemobile.com/2011/05/27/htc-pays-5-per-android-
license-to-microsoft/)

[2] [http://fosspatents.blogspot.com/2011/09/samsung-takes-
androi...](http://fosspatents.blogspot.com/2011/09/samsung-takes-android-
patent-license.html)

~~~
bad_user
Patents are only a short term advantage and they know it - Google doesn't have
lots of patents but they have cash and, surprise, they have gone shopping
already.

Just wait until Google, Samsung, HTC, LG and maybe smaller players like Acer
form a coalition and go after Microsoft - a company that is not a patent trol,
that can be attacked and that will take a stock market hit in the case of
failure.

What really works for Microsoft at this point is just plain old FUD, but that
doesn't lasts long.

~~~
recoiledsnake
>Just wait until Google, Samsung, HTC, LG and maybe smaller players like Acer
form a coalition and go after Microsoft

Google has never filed an offensive patent suit. Also, MS can retaliate
against almost every Google product out there.

Samsung, HTC are MS patent licensees and make Windows Phones. In fact, HTC
came into the world phone market by making WM phones.

LG makes Windows Phones.

Acer's biggest business is being a Windows OEM.

Why would they waste tens of millions of dollars trying to shake down MS? If
you think these are going to come together and file a patent lawsuit against
the biggest patenter, I suspect you're wrong.

>..will take a stock market hit in the case of failure

The dent in MS's revenues even in the case of successful patent suits against
it, compared to the cash brought in by their cashcows will be a blip on the
radar.

------
dagw
I'm waiting to see what Nokia comes up with before making a call one way or
the other. Personally I'm really intrigued by what I've seen of WP7 and would
definitely consider it for my next phone. The main thing holding me back at
the moment though is that the choice of hardware is very limited and the
little that does exists is rather uninspiring and quite expensive compared to
Android phones. HTC and Samsung seem totally uninterested in WP7 and are only
going through the motions with their handsets. Hopefully a company that is
100% behind the platform can breathe some life into the hardware side of the
equation.

------
markstahler
It appears that the software is well received but my question is where are the
handsets? I am looking forward to seeing Nokia's offerings as the LG and HTC
phones have not been very appealing.

------
curt
Think there is room for one more player in the market. Think Amazon, Facebook,
or a partnership between the two could really make a splash. Eventually when
the HTML5 frameworks become more developed and there's more fluidity between
the app stores, who knows how that will change the landscape. But I don't
think Microsoft can move fast enough anymore to compete in the ever quickening
marketplace.

------
tomkarlo
"...the only thing standing in the way of Microsoft’s ascendency is price when
compared to similarly outfitted Android and iOS models"

Uh, author just kind of threw that in there, unsupported. You could have said
the same thing about Apple back in about 1997, but it wouldn't have been true,
either.

------
quadyeast
the vertical scale of that graph does not make much sense

~~~
rwolf
Specifically, stacking means that that blackberry's dip makes symbian's drop
look far too drastic. Windows ~10% (eyeballing it) to ~0% seems significant
and relevant to the article, but it gets washed out in the graph.

------
InclinedPlane
It's not just the quality of the platform. Look at PalmPre for why that's not
the most important aspect. There are lots of complicated reasons why a
platform becomes popular or not.

Also, there very much is an aspect of trust involved. Apple and google built
up a lot of trust in different ways in providing excellent experiences to
users. Apple with OS/X and the iPod. Google with gmail, search, maps, chrome,
etc. When presented with the idea of an iPod phone or a google-apps phone a
lot of people had enough trust to buy into it. As those platforms have matured
that trust has only grown.

MS has the opposite problem. MS has built up distrust with its previous,
clunky iterations of windows mobile, and it hasn't built up sufficient trust
in its ability to even _deliver_ reliably. The problems with the Kin, Zune,
and Vista haven't helped.

~~~
contextfree
I agree, but that's actually an argument for persevering with the platform.
That trust problem can only be fixed with time and continuing investment, and
dropping platforms if they don't succeed right away would only compound the
trust deficit (especially with developers).

------
barista
Windows phone unfortunately has become the "Zune" of MP3 players. It was
better than iPod, the software was killer. The Zune pass was more conveniet
than clunky old itunes but nobody cared. The brand associated with it was not
cool and hence a superior product died a premature death.

As the article says, Windows phone is in the same boat. The interface is
innovative and functional. The app library has most of the essential apps.
Performance is pretty good and the reviews are great but the users don't crave
it.

Microsoft's marketing and partner efforts have clearly failed here.

~~~
mrspandex
I agree - I'm a proud owner of a Windows phone, but it was hard to even find a
store that sold one. I wonder if having the Metro UI in Windows 8 will help
Microsoft out with a little cross-pollination.

