
We’re Going to Need More Lithium - prostoalex
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-lithium-battery-future/
======
jeffdavis
This seems like a simple case of "demand increases, price increases in the
short term, production increases, things balance out" \-- a textbook example
of how a market is supposed to work. Did I miss something?

~~~
sametmax
Yes. You missed that it's an ad disguised as an article. Maybe someone need
people to invest in lithium, or to make lithium based companies look good, or
to divert attention to lithium from other things...

All in all, someone from an entity with a lot of money involved sent a PR guy
with a story to tell to journalists. And the journalists were happy to write
it down because it's interesting enough, serious enough, and doesn't require
too much work.

~~~
tonyedgecombe
It clearly worked as there are several questions here about where to invest,
we are easily manipulated aren't we.

~~~
NicoJuicy
I invested a year ago and it is a interesting resource. As all car companies
need Lithium.

Renewable energy is also in the same ballpark

~~~
sametmax
Well made ads are actually selling to people that would want to buy, not just
any target that could buy, so it makes sense.

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tomxor
> The next dozen years will drain less than 1 percent of the reserves in the
> ground

That's actually an extremely large portion for such a short length of time
(this is the entire planet we are talking about). That projection doesn't
paint a very sustainable future compared to oil (yes I hate oil), I hope it's
efficiently recycled or replaced with better tech.

~~~
thomasahle
1 percent for a dozen years, that's 120 years left. That's more than double of
oil: [https://www.seeker.com/how-much-oil-is-left-on-
earth-1792718...](https://www.seeker.com/how-much-oil-is-left-on-
earth-1792718444.html)

~~~
tomxor
Do you really think the consumption rate is linear?

...I didn't realise we were already at full EV adoption.

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robbrown451
How sure are we that some new tech won't replace lithium ion batteries? I'd
want to know that if I was investing in a mine.

~~~
nsnick
The reason lithium is used for batteries is that it is an excellent anode the
lightest metal. Lithium will always be used for batteries that need to be
light.

~~~
snowmaker
Relevant article from 11 days ago on sodium battery development:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15938642](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15938642)

~~~
Robotbeat
Sodium is not fundamentally better material than lithium, though. It's just a
bit more abundant (but lithium is very abundant and can be extracted from
actual ocean water, though because of lithium's abundance, that will never be
the cheapest way to get lithium).

Lithium is the third lightest element and the lightest (regular) metal. Sodium
is much heavier.

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Overtonwindow
A novel idea for lithium is that much of our lithium recycling is done in
other countries. If the government were to classify lithium as strategic
security material, it would severely limit its exportation. Ergo retaining
more of it domestically and encouraging domestic recycling. Lithium may arrive
but it can never leave, so to speak.

~~~
flexie
An idea that the EU, China or any of your other large trading partners would
never allow to fly for more than a split second without introducing reciprocal
measures.

~~~
disnsj
We live in reciprocal space now

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castle-bravo
Can anyone comment on the feasibility/state of the art for extracting lithium
from seawater?

I've found an article [0] which describes a specially made membrane which
allows lithium ions to pass, but nothing larger. If it's really possible to
scale this up cheaply, the supply of lithium will be constrained by the supply
of power, not scarce mineral deposits.

[0]
[http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0011916414...](http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0011916414006560)

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EGreg
This may be a silly question, but can't the lithium be recharged and reused?
Or it's discarded and useless after a battery is tossed? Why mine more?

~~~
lucaspiller
Typically when a lithium-ion battery is recycled some metal parts are
extracted (the battery contains metal plates which are relatively easily
separated), but the lithium usually is not as it’s a lot more complicated to
extract. Economically it is a lot cheaper just to mine new lithium, so proper
recycling facilities don’t often exist.

In the U.K. lithium-ion batteries are usually discarded in a landfill, and
often treated as hazardous waste:

[https://app.croneri.co.uk/feature-articles/dealing-waste-
lit...](https://app.croneri.co.uk/feature-articles/dealing-waste-lithium-
batteries-0)

~~~
dharma1
feels like such a waste.. would it be possible to design lithium-ion batteries
in a way that's easier/cheaper to recycle?

~~~
Robotbeat
Yes. Tesla's standardization on one or two cell types allows them to build
specialized machines that can efficiently and quickly disassemble and recycle
the components of the cell. (EDIT: That's the idea Musk presented, at least. I
do know Tesla has done some battery recycling, but I don't know if they've
implemented this method at scale, yet.)

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lev99
“People used to think gold was worth fightin’ over, and that shit gets made by
every supernova, which means pretty much every planet around a G2 star will
have some. Stars burn through lithium as fast as they make it. All the
available ore got made at the big bang, and we’re not doin’ another one of
those. Now that’s scarcity, friend.” ― James S.A. Corey, Cibola Burn

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pscsbs
If I wanted to invest in lithium, what companies or ETFs should I look at?

~~~
joshuamcginnis
Global X Lithium ETF (NYSE:LIT)

[https://www.globalxfunds.com/funds/lit/](https://www.globalxfunds.com/funds/lit/)

~~~
kogepathic
At 0.76% management fee and an average return over 5 years of 8.09%, you're
better off just investing in an index ETF.

Their own comparison shows the index matching or beating the Lithium ETF in
every metric.

* LIT since inception: 38.48%

* Index over same period: 45.82%

You also have zero diversification with a resource ETF. If you really want to
buy into only Lithium then I won't try to talk you out of it.

But maybe consider Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG), the average return over 5 years
is 14.4%, or nearly double that of LIT. [1]

[1]
[https://institutional.vanguard.com/iippdf/pdfs/FS967R.pdf](https://institutional.vanguard.com/iippdf/pdfs/FS967R.pdf)

~~~
jwblackwell
You’re assuming OP wants to invest all of his money in Lithuum. And that past
performance remains the same

~~~
saguro
He's also assuming that ETF is going to perform the same way in the future,
when the whole point of TFA is that lithium demand is about to surge.

~~~
kogepathic
There was another quote in TFA about the potential to over build mining
capacity and flood the market.

But sure, buy this and hope it "surges" more than the general market. Given
that billions of devices already have lithium cells in them and the historical
performance of the Lithium ETF is still quite disappointing compared to the
broader market, I wouldn't hold my breath that this time is any different.

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Manglano
Pneumatic cars.

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nickthemagicman
Sounds like these companies are good investment opportunities? No?

~~~
jogjayr
Doesn't the efficient market theory ensure that any outsized future returns
are already reflected in the price?

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baq
an efficient market is a model that assumes the same information is available
for all players, so don't put too much weight on it. it's an approximation
that's sometimes useful.

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QAPereo
It might cost more, but it’s certainly abundant; we’re not going to run out of
it. No I would even go so far as to say that a rise in the price of
terrestrial lithium would be a good thing. In the short term it will hurt, but
there’s a lot of runway in that graph before we hit serious scarcity. As the
price rises I could honestly see someone like Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos finally
astroid money off the ground. I don’t have much hope for Mars in our lives,
but asteroid mining absolutely could happen.

This could be a safe source of pressure, partly political if people realize it
will be easier to move in space than Afghanistan, to make that happen. For
those of us you dreaming of a future for the species beyond Earth, I think
this might be the realistic start.

~~~
zzzzzzzza
mining asteroids in our lifetimes would primarily be useful for harvesting raw
materials for constructing things in space, not sending the materials back
down to earth.

~~~
azernik
It may be useful for _some_ raw materials - for example, osmium ($13,000/kg),
rhenium ($2,750/kg), and iridium ($30,000/kg). All three of those are elements
that are probably common in the Earth's mantle, but nowhere near the surface,
and are mostly found in meteorites; all of them are used in high-performance
alloys (high-temperature, corrosion-resistant, etc.)

Doubling the world production of any of these would greatly reduce the prices
of aerospace engines and electronics (iridium is used for crucibles growing
high-quality semiconductor crystals). And that's easy, because the quantities
involved are so low - under 1 ton of osmium per year, 10 tons of iridium, and
40 tons of rhenium.

There are other materials like that. It's all about searching for the
competitive advantage, the materials that _can 't_ be found on Earth in
reasonable quantities. All the nickel and iron and titanium will indeed
probably stay up for in-space use.

~~~
dozzie
> It may be useful for some raw materials - for example, osmium ($13,000/kg),
> rhenium ($2,750/kg), and iridium ($30,000/kg).

Or tungsten, in the form of cylinders 6m long and 30cm in radius, transported
gravitationally to their place of use.

~~~
DiabloD3
Rods from God?

~~~
Turing_Machine
Yep.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_bombardment#Project_Th...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_bombardment#Project_Thor)

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MrBorough
This is why the imperialists countries like USA, Britain, France etc are going
to foment war in countries like Congo where people live like animals and work
for peanuts to dig out cobalt:

[http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4764208/Child-
miners...](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4764208/Child-miners-aged-
four-living-hell-Earth.html)

Let's make a million dollars no matter who dies. It aggravates me that I don't
see any comments here relating to what is happening in Congo and all the
multinationals supported by the all good US/Britain/France etc. Why do you
think the arena of war is being shifted to Africa? Are you ready to wake up?
Or do you care about what is happening as long as you have a new toy/mobile to
play?

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GordonS
Do you have a more... reputable source than the daily mail?

~~~
totalZero
_THE COBALT PIPELINE: Tracing the path from deadly hand-dug mines in Congo to
consumers’ phones and laptops._

[https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/business/batteries/c...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/business/batteries/congo-
cobalt-mining-for-lithium-ion-battery/)

