
Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO - coloneltcb
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/peloton-announces-confidential-submission-of-draft-registration-statement-for-proposed-initial-public-offering-300862485.html
======
codeulike
When I see Peloton now, I always think of this twitter thread that critiques
their adverts

[https://twitter.com/clueheywood/status/1089699762331217920](https://twitter.com/clueheywood/status/1089699762331217920)

~~~
spyspy
My sides. I have friends working there that have tried getting me to apply.
Glassdoor reviews indicated their backend interview is unnecessarily difficult
and I have little faith in their business model. How many people are willing
to spend thousands on an exercise bike? Let alone one that requires a
$40/month subscription? It feels the same as Blue Apron - the market is people
rich and lazy enough that don't want do the first half of the work (go to the
gym or the grocery store) but still want to do the hard part (actually cook
and exercise).

~~~
bstar77
This bike is for people that don't want to go to a gym and/or don't have lots
of time to leave the house on a daily basis. You can also finance the bike so
the hit isn't so bad. Additionally, there's no extra charge for multiple
accounts (up to 10), so if everyone in the house uses it, the cost makes more
sense.

I work out of home and this is the only way I get consistent exercise. My
fitness has gone up tremendously as has my quality of life. It's all about
what motivates you to take your health seriously... this bike does it for me
and a lot of other people. It's really hard to put a price on that.

~~~
wlesieutre
Semi-related, I just got a $400 Oculus Quest and burned 1900 calories playing
Beat Saber yesterday (as calculated by Apple Watch's "Other" workout type).

Much cheaper purchase and fun enough that I can enjoy playing it for hours a
day. I have an (admittedly shitty) exercise bike, and will probably be using
that a lot less now.

If anyone's looking for a home fitness gadget, give that a look. I'm told
BoxVR is a better workout than Beat Saber but I haven't bought that yet.

~~~
mrguyorama
>I just got a $400 Oculus Quest and burned 1900 calories playing Beat Saber

That's an absurd claim by your apple watch. An hour of expert level beat saber
is closer to 360 calories.

~~~
wlesieutre
I have a hunch that it's overestimating because you wave your arms around a
lot, but 360 seems like an underestimate. Average heart rate in 70% to 80%
range, and I'll have higher than average calorie expenditure because I'm
overweight.

EDIT - did a comparison against Runner's World's calorie burn calculator, and
the calories/hour burn rate lines up with a leisurely 11:30 minutes/mile pace
based on my weight.

It honestly seems about right.

------
bruceb
A friend of mine got a Peloton, and I as a good friend razzed him about it a
couple times. Like a $2k stationary bike, come on!

But now I get it. He is a busy professional who would not always have time to
go to the gym. He is also a bit of a special case as he legally blind and
could walk fast to exercise but could never ride a regular bike. This being
said he has lost a decent amount of weight.

Part of it is the instructors, they do a good job of making you feel connected
to the Peloton community. You see their friendly faces (who of course are all
good looking) every day encouraging you . The instructors get followed on
social platforms and there are active FB groups where users talk about their
own lives and trade/sell Peloton gear. I half joke it is like a good cult.

He has a few friends with accounts and they use his bike and chip in for the
monthly fee. This lead to one couple to eventually buy their own.

As a side note, the music lawsuit they are facing is a big deal, it is a major
part the experience. It doesn't work without the music. So they have to settle
that.

Would I buy the bike for $2k+? No. but I can see why people do. This isn't
Juiceroo.

~~~
bluedino
$2k isn't absurt for an exercise bike once you think about it. These are the
same people who buy a $10,000 bike for recreational riding, remember.

You are dead on with the point about the instructors. My wife hated biking but
they have Pelotons in her work gym, and she loves them, and talks about the
instructors like they are real people.

People are fitness crazy right now. Crossfit gyms are $100-200 a month, Rogue
has whole website of fitness equipment, you could easily spend $4,000
outfitting your house. And how many of us own a $600 blender?

~~~
pja
_talks about the instructors like they are real people_

That’s because they are real people! Working people who are doing a job, not
actual friends of course. But still: real living, breathing, actual human
beings.

Although I do wonder if buried somewhere in the business plan is the
expectation of replacing them with AI-equivalents that don’t cost as much &
don’t require pesky things like holidays or sick pay.

~~~
dqv
Probably what they mean is that she has a parasocial relationship[0] with the
instructors i.e. she knows the instructor but the instructor does not know
her.

[0]:[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parasocial_interaction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parasocial_interaction)

------
bedhead
Peloton has better legs than most, but the reality is that every fitness craze
has eventually died whether it’s equipment (eg Bowflex) or method (eg Tae Bo).
It’s just human nature, this and diet (eh Atkins) aren’t sustainable things
with how most people are wired. Peloton will fade one day just like all the
others before it as people inevitably get bored with it and doing it becomes a
drag.

~~~
sneak
The LCHF diet is not only sustainable, it has changed the lives of many people
I know, including people who claim it has improved their mental states,
emotional states, chronic pain, and weight gain.

I myself was pre-diabetic from the standard western diet of 2000kcal+ daily
refined carbohydrates, and have pulled back from the brink by going LCHF.

Don’t dismiss it without a little bit of experience. It’s a growing movement,
and it isn’t a fad. It has provided real results and real improvement to many,
many people, and has spawned dozens or hundreds of successful small
businesses.

~~~
ndiscussion
I read "How Not to Die" recently. By LCHF, are you referring to an "Atkins"
diet of sorts? High meat/animal fats, vegetables, low carb, low fruit?

I'd be interested in any sources that support that diet for anything other
than weight loss - I was under the impression it led to pretty poor health
outcomes (apart from bmi/diabetes management)

~~~
lawrenceyan
I recommend taking a look at how ketosis, and the utilization of ketones as an
energy source for the brain, affects cognition for more on potential benefits.

------
ConsumerLed
Incredible marketing from Peloton and they builds on the Spinning/Indoor
cycling trend that SoulCycle and FlyWheel started.

But I can't help but think a lot of people would be better off with a real
bike, a smart turbo trainer and an iPad to access a variety of training
programs (i.e. Zwift TrainerRoad). Less lock in, the ability to ride outside,
and all possible for a similar price to Peloton bike.

As a cyclist I've also heard the power-meter readings from Peloton aren't as
accurate as those from a Wahoo or Tacx turbo trainer.

Still congratulations to Peloton on the success and getting so many people
exercising at home.

~~~
freefal
Agree regarding preferring Zwift and a turbo but the sort of setup you
describe seems to appeal to cyclists whereas the Peloton seems to appeal to
the spin class crowd, many of who would never consider riding outside. The
market is weirdly bifurcated between the two without a ton of overlap.

~~~
spyspy
> seems to appeal to the spin class crowd

This is the reason I don't see this as a good long term investment. The market
seems to be people who are already really into spin classes and pay the
premiums they demand. To them, having their own equipment and a lower monthly
fee will seem like a good deal. But your average gym-goer won't be willing to
drop thousands upfront and more per month just on a nice exercise bike.

------
flexer2
We have a Peloton bike. We used to be Flywheel members, at $300/mo, and that's
pretty pricy. The bike pays for itself quickly if that's what you're
replacing.

The class content is good. It's available anytime. Our friends have one so we
can do rides together. And we're not paying $300/mo to Flywheel anymore.

Unfortunately we don't have a solarium to put it in, so we are really rubes.

------
KFC_Manager
They've executed so we'll on selling a $2000 exercise bike that locks you into
their subscription content.

Anyone who has bought one can comment on what the alternatives we're when you
purchased? The way they position the financing makes it feel like a monthly
membership fee to a gym or something.

~~~
servercobra
I'm using the Peloton iPad app without their bike and loving it so far. All
you need is any decent spin bike ($200-$600)[0], a bluetooth cadence [1] and
heart rate sensor ($90)[2], plus their cheaper $20/mo app and you get most of
the experience at a reasonable cost. You don't get the output number and can't
compete on the leaderboard, but that's fine for me.

[0] I went with:
[https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07FCJH59R/](https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07FCJH59R/)

[1] [https://www.amazon.com/Wahoo-Cycling-Cadence-Sensor-
Bluetoot...](https://www.amazon.com/Wahoo-Cycling-Cadence-Sensor-
Bluetooth/dp/B00L9XNFPY/)

[2] [https://www.amazon.com/Wahoo-TICKR-Heart-Monitor-
Bluetooth/d...](https://www.amazon.com/Wahoo-TICKR-Heart-Monitor-
Bluetooth/dp/B00INQVYZ8)

~~~
subpixel
I use a high-quality spin bike at the gym with my iPhone clipped on. I kick my
own ass quite fine without cadence or heart rate info. And I don’t pay Peloton
b/c I recorded a dozen or so classes when I had a subscription and stream them
from my own server.

I’m not their target customer but I do really enjoy the product.

------
abuckenheimer
Would highly suggest listening to the "How I built This" podcast[1] with the
peleton founder John Foley, really great story with usual tech themes like
doing things that don't scale and finding a niche but loyal customer base and
expanding organically.

[1]
[https://play.google.com/music/m/Dmjr6m5i4h3j6gaysgjd47ryhci?...](https://play.google.com/music/m/Dmjr6m5i4h3j6gaysgjd47ryhci?t=Live_Episode_Peloton_John_Foley-
How_I_Built_This_with_Guy_Raz)

~~~
froindt
I was shocked at how successful he described their mall marketing!

Rough quote from when I listened a week or two ago:

"If I could get someone to ride the bike, there was about a 50% chance I could
get them to buy it"

Also rough quote:

"People would ask what would happen if we went out of business. Since it was a
subscription, there was an annuity value in keeping the platform going.
Whoever ended up with our assets after a bankruptcy could use those revenues
to spin up an instance of AWS to host the videos. I had a whole line ready to
go about it."

------
ftio
Peloton's business model is breathtakingly good, but I wonder about the size
of their TAM and their ability to have sustained, multiplicative growth in the
future.

First, the business model. They sell you a $2000+ bike, which includes a year
of live classes with some of the best spin instructors in the world.
Afterwards, you pay for a $40/month subscription in perpetuity to make your
$2000 investment more than a boring (although very high quality) stationary
bike. Whether you're hooked on the (excellent) service or not, if you're the
kind of person who's willing to drop $2000 on a bike, you're very, very likely
to be the kind of person who's willing to pay _just_ $40/month to make sure
your bike retains its value (i.e., access to live classes), even if you're not
using it that much. Doesn't hurt that in-person spin classes regularly cost
$30-40 for a single class.

I imagine Peloton's subscription churn is extremely low. This is excellent,
and I'm jealous.

But, growth.

How big is the market of people who are willing to spend $2000 on and have
space for an indoor bike? What happens when Peloton captures nearly all the
market? What happens when a lower-priced version of Peloton comes in and eats
their lunch at the "bottom end" (so to speak) of it?

Once you've effectively exhausted the market for selling new bikes (when new
customer acquisition slows), you've got three options: find a new market, sell
new things to your existing customers, or charge them more for the same
things.

Peloton's already doing the first two. They're trying to show investors that
they can cross-sell and/or establish new markets: they sell a $4000 treadmill.
(My theory about the treadmill is that nearly 100% of its purpose is to show
the market that cross-sell is possible — I have doubts about whether they're
selling). I have extreme doubts about the viability of this. I mean, how many
workout machines are you going to put in your house? Rough estimate: this
segment is no more than 10% of Peloton's existing customer base.

In addition to all this, they could (obviously) also raise prices, but at
$50-60/month for the subscription, you start to put those great churn numbers
at risk.

Either way, really interested to see what they do.

~~~
el_benhameen
I am asking this in earnest: what makes a spin instructor a "best-in-the-
world" instructor? I can see how an instructor for e.g. one of those classes
where you do workouts with a weighted bar might have better techniques or
routines than another, but from my naive perspective, it seems like a spin
instructor can just tell you to pedal faster or slower. But I'm not just
trying to dig at them! I really am curious. I'm more of a "get outside" type
of person, so I don't know a lot about this sort of thing.

~~~
ftio
They're entertainers and motivators.

They know exactly what to say and when to say it to help you push hard at
times when you're feeling ready to give up (at scale — they can't see you if
you're not in the studio). They choose fun, energetic songs to keep you
motivated throughout. They order their playlists in such a way that you push
yourself just past your limit and have just enough time to rest.

Being a good instructor is like being a good comedian or even stage actor,
where you're feeling the energy of the audience and optimizing for a given
outcome. In comedy, it's laughs. In fitness, it's energy. In either case,
people come back wanting more.

------
Animats
Here's where the remote trainer concept first appeared.[1] Orwell's "1984".

"6079 Smith W! Yes, you! Bend over! You're not trying!"

[1]
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCfW6HFP5cI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCfW6HFP5cI)

------
uptown
We haven't bought the $2k bike yet, but did roll our own Peloton with a lower-
end bike and their $11/month streaming subscription watched on an iPad. It
gets you most of the value without the pricey bike, though you miss out on the
gamification part of their platform. Both my wife and I are users - and may
eventually jump in for the integrated solution. It's a pretty well done
offering, particularly once you find a trainer you like with a good mix of
music and class structure.

~~~
timdorr
I'm a bike owner, but I've done this as an alternative to the $4k (!)
treadmill. I have a ~$900 treadmill with a tablet in place of the screen. It's
not anywhere near as nice and you miss out on the leaderboard (a great
motivator to push yourself), but I find it's a "good enough" option for my
non-riding workouts.

------
xchaotic
I really struggle as a potential investor in this (after IPO).

The business is real and lucrative and profitable. This is already so much
better than say Uber. But the equities market demands perpetual growth and I'm
not seeing enough audience for this in the future, who have not already bought
it. In other words I feel it would be a very nice private company but it might
struggle a bit as a public one.

~~~
nemonemo
What if the plan includes expanding to new markets, say China or Europe or
even West coast? When I used Peloton in a hotel at late night pacific time, it
did not have anything live going on until 2am or something. That made it less
attractive as an owl type person.

------
temp129038
Not to shill for Peloton (I don't have one), but the success of SoulCycle and
Barry's Bootcamp show that there's appetite for $32-$35/class "boutique"
fitness classes. If you would otherwise go to either/or 1x-2x/week then the
math does work in Peloton's favor when you factor in the class +
transportation to/from + removing temptation of buying a $10 smoothie too +
any "add-ons" you'd otherwise buy (e.g. water).

~~~
notyourday
Both are in person, not remote.

------
andrewgioia
These types of companies are really interesting to me, I had no idea they've
raised close to $1B over 5 rounds/7 years though[1]! Curious what they've
needed that for, I would presume they've sold quite a few of these plus the
whole subscription model.

[1] [https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/peloton-
interactive](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/peloton-interactive)

------
adrr
Why would they do a press release for a confidential filing?

~~~
omarchowdhury
To signal the action and intent to go public.

------
schwede
What factors into a company’s decision to file confidentially or not?

