

India as a great power - JumpCrisscross
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21574458-india-poised-become-one-four-largest-military-powers-world-end

======
ashray
Uhh.. India buys so many tanks, aircrafts, etc. because politicians here take
a healthy cut on those deals. There's no strategy involved, it's pure
business. Also, pointing at Pakistan as the enemy works because of long term
cultural issues. The one time that the navy chief mentioned China's a worry -
everyone scoffed at him and he was almost fired.

Source: My father was a senior air force pilot and was being coerced into
buying obsolete airplanes from a dealer since the home minister's son was
involved in making the deal.

~~~
rikacomet
sorry no offence, but that story sounds like less believable to me for some
reasons. 1\. airplane deals are not cleared by anyone but the senior most of
general rank airforce officials, so can you please mention your father's exact
rank level again?

2\. Home minister's son you say? which home minister if you can mention?

3\. If my father was a such a senior air force pilot, I would rather not be
even mentioning this, because this is a accusation, and it really means a
great deal to do so without proof. A family member of a senior airforce
official, sounds a lot unbelievable to me. Sorry, but I can't believe your
'sources'

~~~
ashray
I'd rather not share any details even though my father passed away earlier
this month. Rest assured, when I say senior pilot, I mean at the highest
echelons of the forces. Yes, General Rank level indeed.

Maybe you don't know how deals work but they often require a recommendation
from the people who are going to actually USE the equipment.

I don't see why you seem to be so upset about this. It's hardly a secret in
India. I didn't say that my father agreed to be party to this, and neither do
many other senior military officials, but this is a dirty game and no one
denies that.

As for you not believing my sources, frankly, I don't really care.

For reference, this was within the last 10 years.

~~~
magicmike1123
I up-voted your parent and would down vote you if I could, here is why

(a) Defense deals are not the domain of the home minster, their oversight is
the responsibility of the defense ministry.

(b) There have been 2 home minsters in the last 10 years Shivraj Patil P
Chidambaram

Shivraj Patil and his children, Shailesh Patil and Archana Patil have faced
regular accusations of corruption. The reports of their corruption are in the
domain of land acquisition and obtaining permits for business that they would
not otherwise have likely received. This was largely done using their fathers
name and listing their home address as the home ministers residence in New
Delhi. But neither of them are involved in the business of arms.

Chidambaram has 1 son Karti Chidambaram, who likewise has benefited from his
fathers association. Chief among which was accusations that he received 5%
stake in Aircel as kickbacks for other approvals from his father. Quote from
wikipedia "according to The Pioneer and India Today reports, documents show
that approval to the foreign direct investment (FDI) proposal was indeed
delayed by about 7 months by P Chidambaram.". This was during the time that
Chidambaram held the position of Finance minister. It would be likely that
Karti benefited later from his father holding the home portfolio in the same
manner as Shivraj Patil's children.

(c) From your own admission in this response, your father was to only make
recommendations for purchase of equipment which is vastly different from have
the authority to make purchase, which is what you claim in the first. I take
it from the 2 comments that he recommended their purchase. Your comments show
poor form for claiming something that is clearly not true.

(d) Last but not the least, your father spoke about matters that he had no
reason to be addressing outside of his work place. The exceptions could be his
role as a whistle blower which is definitely not the case here.

As someone whose father worked as director of DRDO organization and had
purchasing authority for research equipment for a lab that employed 100000+
employees and 1000+ scientists, I can assure you my father never even in
passing mentioned any work related information outside of work for obvious
security implications.

EDIT: edited for formatting.

~~~
rikacomet
point (D) mentioned by you is the exact reason, I first doubted him. This is
not something someone of that senior level usually does, nor does any of his
family members do the same.

~~~
magicmike1123
In his defense his father was in the Air force, he retired at the rank of Air
Vice marshal and I would guess at the time when he claims to have heard from
his father of the incident his father was the rank of Air commodore.

On "Air commodore" from wikipedia "Air commodore (Air Cdre in the RAF and IAF,
AIRCDRE in the RNZAF and RAAF, formerly A/C in the RCAF) is a one-star rank
and the most junior of the air-officer ranks". Note air-officer ranks are
fairly high and take a number of years of service to achieve. However these
ranks are fairly low when it comes to procuring equipment.

"Air Vice marshal" is one rank higher.

I do think he believes what he claims in his comments, I am just pointing out
that his beliefs are vastly exaggerated. His father was likely asked about his
recommendations of the aircraft but is unlikely to have any knowledge beyond
that about the reason that a particular aircraft was procured. Everything else
that he has heard is hear say.

Far more relevant is that the defense ministry has been headed by A.K. Antony
since 2006. Antony is known for his incorruptible record and simple personal
life, wikipedia has about 10+ references on where this claim originates from.
Antony like wise has a very low profile and is rarely in the news. For anyone
following Indian politics it is fairly well know that there are a handful of
non-corruptible politicians across all affiliations in India. Antony has
always been included amongst those.

~~~
ashray
Well, I would have rather not shared all this information but at the time my
father was an AVM (i.e. a two star general) and was also the head of the air
wing of the border security force. As head of an entire fleet, he pretty much
had the authority to decide and recommend what he pleased. Also, his
recommendations were of paramount importance, especially concerning new
purchases. Obviously he wasn't happy when he was asked to recommend something
in particular - and he didn't, that's probably why the deal failed.

So no, my beliefs are not highly exaggerated. They are just based on whatever
was going on at the time. Take it as hearsay, take it as whatever you want.

I do however request that you remove/edit your post as it is personally
identifiable and I will delete this post as well. I'd rather not have an
online archive of all these things directly related to my father.

~~~
oftenwrong
>I do however request that you remove/edit your post as it is personally
identifiable and I will delete this post as well. I'd rather not have an
online archive of all these things directly related to my father.

It would have been smarter to not post any information that could be linked to
your identity in the first place.

~~~
ashray
Yes, but I wasn't being specific for that very reason. It's one thing to say
"My dad was a senior official and had so and so experience" and it's another
to have other people post personally identifiable information.

But in retrospect, it's probably not worth it because I'm not as invested in
the argument as the other side. It was just to share an interesting story and
nothing more.

~~~
rikacomet
I will apologize right now, of my free accord, if I doubted you wrongly. I'm
going to be less of a skeptical person, and accept that yes he is what you
said.

But I do want to make a note, that the opinion stating, that corruption is
like bonfire in India, is wrong, it is not that rampant, it appears large,
because of recent wave of it getting much media and public attention. Its like
mud, it shouldn't be tossed in the air so it can fall on those who are not
corrupt. Its too easy to say everyone is corrupt, hard to recognize who is
corrupt and who is not. Plus point (D) above was something, I was not able to
put in more clear words myself. It is not a good behavior, something, a lot of
people in armed forces and alike avoid.

~~~
TheMagicHorsey
Are you joking? I travel to India frequently for business. I can assure you
corruption is rampant at all levels I've had the misfortune of being in
contact with (which is not very high level at all). You need to bribe everyone
in Indian govt. to get them to do their jobs, for which they already get a
salary.

------
plinkplonk
The article uses "great power" as a synonym for 'buys lots of weapons' or more
charitably "has a strong army". By these definitions, North Korea is a "great
power".

India is decades away from being a 'great power'. Lots of internal problems to
solve first (said as an Indian living in India)

~~~
jostmey
I have never been to India but my girlfriend spent six months there. She would
laugh at the title of this article. In her eyes, India has to radically change
culturally before the country may blossom. For example, one cultural problem
is that too many people just acquiesce in the face of difficulty.

------
lenkite
"Great power" ROFL. We are a nation where most of the country lives in poverty
and have a truckload of economic and social problems that we like to sweep
under the carpet. Importing weapons does not make us a "great power".

------
ajays
India is trying to be a "great power" in the 50s Soviet-era style.

Today's world is about soft power. India is woefully lacking there. It is
beset by internal strife (the entire Northeast has been under some form of
"martial law" (AFSPA) for 50 years). The central-western region has the
Naxalite problem, which keeps on simmering and growing. And then there's
Kashmir.

Aside from Bhutan, none of India's neighbors take it seriously. If India can't
even project its power on its own borders, how will it do anything beyond?

The reality is: India's defence budget is basically a piggybank for political
parties to fund the elections (and pad the bank accounts of senior
politicians). The first thing a party does when it comes to power is sign some
major defence deals (or "modify" deals in the pipeline, so they can get their
cut also).

------
brownbat
Companion piece, India's political system is nonfunctioning:

[http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/21/zakaria-i...](http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/21/zakaria-
india-as-the-broken-bric/)

I think it even subsumes and helps explain the lack of a coherent military
strategy - there's a lack of any direction at the highest levels of
governance.

"If it doesn't get its act together, 10 years from now people might still be
praising the BRICs, except that the "I" in BRIC might stand for Indonesia, not
India."

------
suprgeek
Having personally experienced the massive dysfunction at all levels in India,
this article makes almost no sense. India's is ruled by corrupt and
incompetent bunch of sycophants & dynasties that are incapable of thinking
strategically at any level. The massive and entrenched corruption means that
rather than tanks and planes, all an adversary needs is a chunk of cash - they
could paralyze any decision making and ensure a Military dominance.

------
wmalik
It's a pity that India and Pakistan both prefer spending insane amounts of
money and effort in upgrading their military toys, rather than improving
quality of education, health, and life in general for their citizens. In both
countries, poverty rates, education standards and quality of life are among
the worst in the world.

Pakistan and India need to invest more money and effort in being partners
rather than enemies, they share almost the same grass root problems, so an
increased cooperation will only improve the situation. I say this as a
patriotic Pakistani who has spent his entire life (except for the last three
years) in Pakistan.

Peace.

------
batgaijin
eh this is useless postering getting reported for no reason.

why does importing tech ever matter? especially tanks? they need to have
independent defense contractors within india fighting for contracts fairly;
until then this is useless reporting because it won't even mention the
incentives for politicians for importing this tech.

~~~
vacri
What happens when your importer cuts off supply? For a small country, you
really have no option, but India is a huge country that is more than capable
of domestic supply.

What if India was dependent on US arms, and war erupted with China? And what
if the US, wanting to keep China and Pakistan onside for their own affairs,
bottlenecks the supply of arms to keep them happy?

Or currently, with 50% of India's arms coming from Russia - overland they've
either got to go through hostile Pakistan or China itself. By sea it's
vulnerable to a strong navy, and you'd see a lot of Chinese naval activity
east of Africa. With satellites and other modern tech, you can't play the
hide-and-seek naval supply of yesteryear - surface shipping is incredibly
vulnerable.

~~~
fakeer
For a short notice (such an) event India might be in trouble unless some other
nation/supplier comes forward with a better cost or commitment to some sort of
alliance/favour or support and solidarity.

If it happens not in a war like situation then the contract was broken by the
supplier and India is fully capable of using those manufacturer's patents and
manual as recipe book just like China has been doing for decades. Now, that
country can't go their government or Indian government and say - "hey, look we
screwed India and now it's screwing us back".

If you wanted a short an final answer - then yes, India will be in trouble.

~~~
vacri
They were rhetorical questions in response to 'why should it be an issue'.

 _India is fully capable of using those manufacturer's patents and manual as
recipe book_

The article gives some examples of India failing to do exactly that. "It'll be
alright on the night" is okay in theatre productions, because the worst that
can happen is an evening's spoiled entertainment and you get a do-over the
next night. Doesn't really work that way with national security if you're
expecting it'll all come together once a war sparks.

~~~
fakeer
>> _The article gives some examples of India failing to do exactly that._

No, it doesn't. It mentions DRDO being not very efficient but that's because
politicians are more interested in buying than start manufacturing. Engineers
are made to sit duck, do bullshit PPTs and just sign the papers, oversee
tenders and purchases. And I don't know about tank story. DRDO cannot start
making copies of Ak47 and GE engines on a whim. State decides that.

>> _Tejas_

It's a pretty good fighter plane. You can see it in action on tube :-)

>> _It'll be alright on the night_

Atleast I never said that. Fine if you are making a general benevolent
observation.

That article talks about a lot of things that stands good and there other
(majority) which pure speculative bull.

------
mark_l_watson
I don't claim much knowledge of the far east, so this is just a gut reaction:
to me (in the USA) I have always looked at India as being a very good partner
for the USA. I think both countries share a lot of common values and have
aligned interests.

I hope for an as good as possible relationships with China, but it seems like
China's interests are not so well aligned with ours. (I am still waiting for
China to join with possibly Russia, South America, and other regions to jump
off of the US$ as their reserve currency.)

------
rikacomet
India, or rather its military expansion/presence is in my view as an Indian
citizen, is in the right direction. Firstly this is in line with the fact,
that we are a founder of Non Alignment Movement (1961), a movement, that in
the shadows, kept the rest of the world powers out of the Cold War, as many
might not know or think, NAM is one of the actual reason, that a war between
the West Bloc and East Bloc never really happened. So yes, today, if we are
not positioned as a anti-matter to any country, it is because of our roots. In
fact, the whole conflict against Pakistan is passive, if we were US, we might
have made permanent bases in Pakistan to keep them in check, like US did in
Japan, but we didn't. With China, growing, we do not share the same sense of
hostility as some do in the west. Anything India does is just actually a
strategic action to balance its interest between this hostility. No offence,
meant.

Anyways, the spending over the last few years in India, has rather been of
modernizing nature than expansive nature. An example of that is 1.5 billion
spent on a SECOND HAND aircraft carrier by India, of which we have near zero.

India as a great power? yes, India is becoming a great power military,
politically, economically , socially, etc, but we would rather like the world
to see our opinion on handling our military. This is actually a good article
about India to make frontpage, since it allows the opportunity for us to
showcase, that this is the land of Gandhi, we could have done a lot of things
to Pakistan, but we knew, that our differences are deeper than any military
discord.

As a muslim, I have also realized, that over the years, the problems of
muslims of pakistan is NOT the problems of muslims of India, and they really
need to work a lot of things up in Socio-Economic factors. A stable democratic
govt, free from military control is one. We never had any coup, but pakistan
did quite a few. This I'm saying not to offend anyone, but to highlight, how
in India, Military and Civil establishments are parallel close lines, but in
Pakistan, they are intersecting lines.

with proper education, the next generation of Indians and Pakistanis, will see
and solve our basic problem of discord, that is to say, if other countries
(none named) do not intervene for their own interest, which are quite a few,
for example, a amalgamation of India-Pakistan would almost instantly increase
our cotton production capacities, which are fundamentally supplementary to
each other, and today are actually struggling because of our relations.
Besides, we have near about same economic standards, and it would be like a
catapulting India ahead of China almost instantly. But this is something, a
lot of people don't see.

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-Aligned_Movement>

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-
Pakistani_wars_and_conflic...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-
Pakistani_wars_and_conflicts)

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aircraft_carrier#India>

~~~
Uchikoma
"NAM is one of the actual reason, that a war between the West Bloc and East
Bloc never really happened."

This seems to be a view not widely held outside of NAM countries. Do you have
any facts, events e.g. to support that claim? e.g. how NAM countries worked
during the Cuban crisis? Or how NAM countries helped during the Able Archer
crisis? Or how they were involved in the Berlin crisis of 61 with the T-54 and
M-48 tank standoffs? (three events that come to mind where the cold war was
nearly going hot)

~~~
rikacomet
yes, Please read the NAM wiki. The design of the NAM was actually for as per
the official definition, was to break the cold war. And ever since, it so
happened, it has been struck with a lack of direction.

Well, isn't it obvious? During cold war, countries were being pressed to join
either of the blocs, but NAM provided a barrier against this pressing, when
countries unanimously agreed to stay neutral and share the opinion.

Due to its nature, that whatever was happening, was on a diplomatic behind
closed doors basis, where discussions were being held about stances hiding it
from both US and USSR bloc, it is very hard to trace, what they really did,
and how they did it. But, with a attendance of 55% or 115 countries, you
cannot rule it out as just another organization.

EDIT: <http://mealib.nic.in/?2029>

please check out this official foreign policy extract from 1983, it was a big
event in world politics. reading only the Introduction will let you know.

~~~
jacquesm
I have a plush toy on my desk here that keeps my town from being hit by
asteroids. It works fantastic, no asteroids have hit this town since I put it
there.

~~~
rikacomet
I'm judging that you are trying to say something in a sarcastic manner, but
can you elaborate please? It did not connect.

~~~
jacquesm
My claim that a plush toy has been keeping this town from being hit by
asteroids is roughly equivalent to your claim that NAM countries were "the
actual reason that a war between the West Bloc and the East Bloc never really
happened".

~~~
rikacomet
A plush toy, is only a non-living thing, that sits and do nothing, NAM is a
115 country strong organization, most of which are countries that joined it to
not align based on military issues, but on development issues, with someone
like India, who have also been under colonial rule like them

~~~
olh
> NAM is a 115 country strong organization

Thus not India.

------
contingencies
I have spent 13 years in the area and am currently/mostly in China's south-
western area bordering Myanmar (very close to the disputed region in far
north-eastern India). I am very lazily writing a history on the area, purely
out of personal interest.

It's probaly worth pointing out that all of the borders in this area are
essentially modern / historically largely irrelevant, dating basically from
colonial times, and falling arbitrarily across significant ethnographic and
cultural boundaries. In addition, the proxy economic/diplomatic conflict in
Myanmar (nicely summarized at
[http://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/03/china-
didnt...](http://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/03/china-didnt-see-
this-coming/274042/)) is a serious concern for all parties at present, and
entirely excluded from the article.

The US is deeply involved there, and not for the first time, having operated a
dangerous, famous and still well remembered and locally celebrated air route
over the Himalayan foothills from eastern India known as 'The Hump' in support
of Chinese resistance against the Japanese.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hump>

Still earlier, the Americans were also to be chief suppliers of the ultimately
failed English Myanmar-China train project much discussed in early 20th
century English parliament (they were pretty jiffed the French beat them to it
from Northern Vietnam). <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yunnan-Burma_Railway> (I
snapped the pic there!)

I don't see India projecting any influence in this part of China, really.
There are few Indian businesses, commercial envoys or students (unlike
Bangladeshi, Burmese, Korean, Thai, etc.). Of late the eastern Indian area
(Brahmaputra valley) at which the northern section exists the greater disputed
area has been mostly opened to tourists for the first time. Most of the
'Burmese' present here are actually Bangladeshi Muslim traders who have
acquired Burmese documentation. Buddhists are few and far between.

My understanding is that local governors of that part of India are keen to
trade with China and re-open the (American-army-corps engineered, but largely
local labourer-built) Stillwell Road ("Burma Road"), and there have been
India/China discussions to that effect for many years now. No action though,
and the proxy political conflict in Burma is probably going to result in
further delays. Though plans have been announced for railways to Myanmar from
China (and early political posturing for onward links to Bangladesh), nothing
seems to have moved and recent politicking probably means long delays on any
concrete development.

This is all further complicated by Chinese relations with the Kachin, Wa and
Shan armies along Myanmar's northern periphery, their not insignificant
presence on the Chinese side of the border (especially the Wa and
Shan/Dai/Tai), the presence of opium, the China government's widely assumed
and somewhat evidenced involvement in its large-scale trans-shipment, the
historical presence of nationalist (Taiwanese) anti-communist warlords in the
region.

NB. Earlier in my career I had some experience dealing with the Indian
Military. Lots of posturing culminated in untold swathes of military officials
listening to technical presentations for which they obviously had no
competency (asking irrelevant questions, etc.)

