

Why China will Rule Tech? - cwan
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9179008/Five_reasons_why_China_will_rule_tech

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Arun2009
While I wholeheartedly applaud all attempts at getting ANY government at all
to spend more on science, technology and education, I am baffled at the
constant American paranoia of its 'leadership' in science and math.

A couple of points:

1\. It is OK for America to not "rule tech".

China has the most number of humans in the world. Statistically speaking, it
shouldn't be surprising that they will eventually 'rule tech'.

American leadership in technology is an anomaly - it's representative of the
historical advantages that the US has had and the deprivations of rest of the
world. IOW, US is more like a one-eyed king in a country of the blind. As
others pull themselves up, it's natural that this anomaly will be corrected
somewhat.

2\. America is not really lagging anyway.

The world's top universities are American
([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academic_Ranking_of_World_Unive...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academic_Ranking_of_World_Universities)),
most of the Nobel laureates have been American
([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nobel_laureates_by_coun...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nobel_laureates_by_country)),
most of the high-tech companies are American (I don't even care to list), and
a lot of people who are technically savvy eventually become American anyway.
From outside at least, the US looks like a giant chain reaction of innovation
that has spun out of control!

I guess "America is doing great!" won't make as sensational a headline as this
one.

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eddieplan9
As someone born, raised and educated in China, I say this would never happen
unless China can treat IP protection more seriously. Piracy has already
destroyed the possibility of a strong music and movie industry. Non-existence
of protection against superficial copycat behaviors is hurting not only
foreign companies but also those few Chinese willing to innovate.

Another problem is that things rely too much on good will and efforts of the
government. However, government funds are put into projects mostly to make
government reports look good on paper and to allow government officials to get
promoted to higher level positions. Some universities put Wi-Fi in some areas
of the campus so that they can _report_ they have campus Wi-Fi. Things look
good and bright on paper. And that's because it is meant to be like that.

------
neutronicus
I have to wonder if people who write articles like this have ever actually
_worked_ with a Chinese company. I know my company (nuclear reactor software)
had a disastrous experience in partnering with Chinese programmers, and a
friend of mine in manufacturing had similar stories.

It is true, though, that we have essentially sold our technological soul in
exchange to the Chinese for a big contract (we're building some reactors
there, but we're selling them a bunch of IP).

I think it's less likely that China will 'rule tech' and more likely that
they'll simply stop depending on Western tech and become a self-contained
market.

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joejohnson
"Furthermore, only 2% of all U.S. 9th-grade boys and 1% of girls will go on to
attain an undergraduate science or engineering degree. In contrast to these
troubling numbers, Mr. Chairman, 42% of all college undergraduates in China
earn science or engineering degrees."

That's crazy. I wonder how many more undergraduates China has altogether.

~~~
vorg
To get into university in China is hard, but to finish it is easy, vice versa
to Western countries. A Chinese boasting an engineering degree from a good
university shows how well their parents got them to study for their Senior
High School finishing certificate (Gaokao) when they were 18 yrs old.

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usaar333
Wow, this article is terrible. While its thesis (China will rule tech
eventually may be correct), the arguments are very weak.

1) The US' :"Great Engineer" president (Herbert Hoover) was among its worst.
While it is a low sample size, I'm not sure how much evidence there is that
leaders with engineering degrees = better for society.

2) Everyone wants to out-innovate the US. Sheer R&D investment helps, but
other factors play a large part.

3) Outright misleading. Bleum is hiring a US workforce to work in China
([http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9178913/Chinese_outso...](http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9178913/Chinese_outsourcer_seeks_U.S._workers_with_IQ_of_125_and_up));
of course the workforce is orders of magnitude smaller. (Hint: IQ tests are
illegal to use for employment in the US).

The number of engineering degrees is also misleading, as the US typically has
higher standards to get them than in China.

Besides, the US has a huge talent pool advantage in that it accepts highly
skilled immigrants from all countries, something that occurs far less often in
China.

4) This argument compares US high school to Chinese undergraduates. While the
US certainly has its weak-spots with education for everyone, the top 10% (who
probably matter the most) get an excellent education

5) The strongest argument. Tech transfers have been going on for more than a
decade. It definitely helps China a lot (and helped the US massively in the
early 1800s), but China still does have awhile to go.

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theprodigy
Point one is irrelevant. Lawyers make good politicians because law and
creating policy are similar. JinTao's job is to be a politician provide
leadership and design policy that is benefitial for the country and not be an
engineer.

2\. Everyone wants to out innovate us. If you innovate you can create wealth
for your country. If your country cannot innovate then you are reliant on
foreign direct investment and jobs from richer countries because your country
cannot generate jobs and wealth itself. Innovation allows countries to control
its own destiny.

3\. I would agree that the pool is huge and advanced. Chinese students are
well discipled and they have a lot of pressure to get advanced education, do
well in school and get good jobs.The pool is so large that there are millions
students with advance degrees that are unemployed living in slums near
technological cities waiting for their big break because there are not enough
jobs for them.

4\. America is failing in science and math is a big worry. We need to create
better incentives around these fields.

5\. China is stealing our technology and improving on existing ones. If we
don't change I see a lot of middle tier engineering jobs going to India and
China.

China is good at copying technology and selling for cheaper or improving an
already existing product, but real innovation, such as creating new
technologies that create whole new indsutries still will be from americans.

Americans, culturally, are used to thinking outside the box, critically
thinking and using their imagination in applying what they learn in new and
intersting ways. Chinese work force are robotic and respect authority and have
a big fear of losing face or failing.

What i am trying to say is America will come out with real innovation and
china will copy it. China will also steal a lot of the low level to mid level
engineering jobs, which contributes in building our middle class.

The best way we can combat this is be good parents and don't let our kids be
self entitled lazy biatches and have them strive for higher education on the
technical side. We should also make sure we support policies that provides an
evironment that allows us to be competitve to with China and India in terms of
value or put pressure on chinese and indian businesses or the countries to
raise social standards of its people so the american worker is competitve.

~~~
seldo
_China is good at copying technology and selling for cheaper or improving an
already existing product, but real innovation, such as creating new
technologies that create whole new indsutries still will be from americans._

This is exactly, to the letter, what America said about Japan, and it was
completely wrong.

~~~
theprodigy
Who invented the microprocessor?

where did these industries get started software, personal computer, internet,
airline, car, etc.

Americans were the ones that created these industries and created new
technologies, new needs, and new jobs. We are wealthier that other countries
not just because of WWII, but because of innovation and our ability to create
new industries that creates jobs and wealth.

IE, personal computers create so many jobs that no one would have thought
would have existed 80 years ago.

Americans are the ones that are the forerunners of innovation. We've have
created so much.

~~~
seldo
As it happens, the Intel 4004, the first microprocessor, was co-designed by
Intel and Busicom, a Japanese company. Busicom owned the rights.

Other Japanese inventions include: \- pocket calculators \- CDs \- the Walkman
\- Camcorders \- Blue lasers \- Glass integrated circuits \- Flash memory \-
The floppy disk \- Flat panel displays \- LCDs \- Plasma screens

I think they're doing okay.

------
kkshin
I don't think anyone disagrees that China will out pace the US in technology
at some point within the next two generations. They will probably outpace the
US in all business sectors. This has nothing to do with the failings of the
American education system or ineptitude of our leadership. No matter what our
policies, we are a natural disadvantage. China has more people. With more
people comes more consumers, larger markets, and ultimately more innovators.

Ultimately though, this doesn't matter. As the world becomes more globalized
it will matter less and less where companies physically exist. Global
companies will still hire the best minds from wherever in the world they
graduate from, and global companies/investment firms will still invest in the
best of ideas.

~~~
csomar
> China has more people.

Wrong. More people, more problems, the harder control will be. Think of a big
company, like Microsoft.

I think the article is crap, written by someone with degrees, who value
degrees and the article is based on the current education system.

> 1\. China's leadership understands engineering

Hahaha. We need leaders and not Engineers, sure they need a minimum knowledge,
but they don't need doctorate in Physics.

> 2\. China's leadership wants to out-innovate the U.S.

That's my dream too and the dream of France, England and the whole world.

> 3\. China's science and technical talent pool is vast

Again, he relies on the educational system. Who said China has a quality
educational system and that the 350K engineers know really what they should
know.

~~~
kkshin
The US is, by and large, successful because we have the largest market in the
world (forgetting for a moment the effects of WWII). We continue to be a
success because we have a huge population of affluent people who can spend
enormous amounts of money on consumer goods. The Chinese middle class is
already larger than the entirety of the US population* and will continue to
rise as the country increasingly becomes a first-world country.

There are of course issues with managing such a large population, but the
chance of any sort of collapse is the figment, and hope, of our pride and does
not reflect the realities of the situation.

* - Income of middle class in the US is higher, but cost of living is also substantially less in China.

------
johngalt
This article brings up none of the roadblocks that will prevent this.

1\. So the ruling party is headed by engineers? So I assume the taxi cabs are
driven by the blind, all the jockeys are tall, and the businesses are run by
physicists. Not matching skilled workers with their work is a disadvantage.

2\. The Chinese government (or any government) can't sit down and order up
long term technological advancement. What government program did Gates or Jobs
take part in?

3\. All the top talent will emigrate. The real innovators would prefer not to
be constrained by the local party official's rules.

4\. Complacency is a huge issue for us, but thankfully we make a good
destination for all those people from #3. The more the immigration door
remains open the less we have to worry about this.

5\. Low cost exporting is a house of cards. There is always a country that
will do it cheaper/more exploitatively. Hard to have a long term strategy
here. And you can't copy your way to first place. The copy can never be better
than the original.

