

Dow Closes Up 10.9%, Nasdaq up 9.5% - ksvs
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2008/10/28/briefing-closer-surge-markets-equity-cx_ss_1028markets39.html

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ctkrohn
I think you fade this rally. The only news to come out today was very
negative: consumer confidence came in at 38%, vs. the expected 52%. This was a
record low. The Case-Schiller home price index dropped by a record amount as
well. Other indicators looked bad as well: the CDX (an index of the credit
quality of investment-grade companies, as measured by the price of their
credit default swaps) was roughly unchanged, 10yr notes were only a little bit
lower, the yield on 2yr notes is still a ridiculously low 1.6%, the primary
mortgage rate remains well over 7%, etc.

So the question is, what good news drove this rally? I can't think of any. I
think you sell stocks here.

The biggest risk is the Fed meeting tomorrow. The market is expecting a 50
basis point cut in the Fed Funds target rate (currently at 1.5%). If the Fed
only goes 25bp, there will be a huge selloff. If the Fed goes 75bp, there's a
moderate rally. 50bp, I think we see a moderate selloff.

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tptacek
I've learned more trackable economic indicators over the last two months than
I have during the rest of my life. Case-Schiller? CDX? Neat! Thanks market
crash! Thanks, ctkrohn!

Can someone put together an aggregator for this stuff?

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tptacek
One of the largest ever percentage gains in the DJIA was in 1933, near the
bottom of the Great Depression. What does it all mean? Nothing.

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utnick
You don't even have to look that far back

Two weeks ago, October 13th, the DOW went up 11.1%, of course it gave that
whole 11.1% and more back in the days that followed

The market is crazy right now.

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icey
Dead cat bounce?

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kingkongrevenge
Short covering.

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icey
There was a big VW short squeeze today: [http://www.portfolio.com/news-
markets/top-5/2008/10/28/Volks...](http://www.portfolio.com/news-
markets/top-5/2008/10/28/Volkswagen-Is-the-Biggest-Company)

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ConradHex
Does a "VW short squeeze" have anything to do with clowns?

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twism
It should drop almost accordingly by the end of week due to profit taking.

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ctkrohn
I don't think so. The reason we kept bouncing off the low 8000s on the Dow is
because there are real money buyers who are buying stocks there based on
fundamentals like P/E ratio, expected earnings, etc. These guys are going to
hold on to their portfolios for a while, rather than sell out for a quick
buck. The type of guys who would take profit after today are hedge funds and
other fast money types -- but they have had to give back a ton of money to
investors, and their power to move the market is now limited. Even if those
guys take profit tomorrow, I don't think it will noticeably hurt the price.

~~~
nostrademons
How many of the fast-money momentum investors do you think are still in the
market? I would think that the large-scale losses have just begun (well, not
_just_ , but we still have more of them), because retail customers are
starting to get scared and pull their money out of funds. Even though the fund
managers themselves are value investors, they're only as strong as their
weakest backers, so they may be forced to sell shares (even when they'd rather
be buying) to meet redemptions. But then, you're closer to the market than I
am, so you'd have a better idea whether this is actually going on...

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markessien
What's up with the tech crowd and the negativity? The market is fine, people
with big money are just restructuring their investments because of some change
that is coming up - those people with access to market surveys and analysts
see something we don't.

Where do you think the cash from the crash went? You think Trump stuffed it in
his matrass? It's all there somewhere, and they will put it back in the market
- the question is just about where the money will be invested in.

Wake up sheeple :)

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davidw
Uh, yeah, we noticed. Not really interesting, though.

Those of us with a firm grasp of technology have figured out how to obtain
this information without it being posted here. And discussing it after the
fact is just hand waving and making up stories to tell ourselves. If you can
call movements like that beforehand with any degree of accuracy, feel free to
post, but otherwise, I hope we don't see a string of "dow up blah blah, dow
down blah blah, nikei up blah blah", and so on and so forth.

~~~
pg
I thought it was interesting. Ordinary daily random fluctuations aren't, but
something on this scale is. And while any reader here could easily obtain such
info, most probably don't check the market closes every day. I don't. So if
something dramatic happens it's handy to see it here.

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jncraton
I find it interesting that anytime pg posts a comment it gets upvoted like
crazy even if it isn't particularly brilliant. Honestly, I agree with him
about this subject. I didn't check the market close, and the second largest
daily increase in history is a great piece of information to be informed
about. However, if an average user would have posted that it would have
probably received a mix of agreement and "but it's not hacker news".

I realize that this is pretty much his site, and he makes the rules, but does
that mean that we should all be hitting that little up arrow next to his name
out of gratitude? Honestly, I don't think that he probably checks on the
number of upvotes we have given him when looking at yc applications. Although,
he may have some sweet filter algorithm that automatically takes that into
account...

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davidw
> I find it interesting that anytime pg posts a comment it gets upvoted like
> crazy even if it isn't particularly brilliant.

My comment started out at -1, got voted up to 5ish or so, and after pg made
his comment, got voted down again (not that I particularly care). He certainly
does have a lot of influence, but that's not a bad thing - I think many of us
arrived here because we like his writing and what he's done with this site.

~~~
jncraton
Agreed. I'm not saying that it's bad that pg has a lot of influence. It's just
interesting to me how quick we are to follow him even against the trend of the
community, and perhaps our own individual thinking.

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cbrinker
This isn't a bottom and a reversal, this is a bear rally. Tomorrow the fed
will be dropping interest rates 0.5% and we may see a slight rise or
stagnation. Thursday the government will be releasing some quarterly reports,
which will probably show just how bad things are getting and the market will
eat crap again (-4/500).

Prepare to hit the 7000's in the coming weeks as no one buys squat for xmas.
Sorry little Timmy, due to fiscal irresponsibility there's no Christmas this
year.

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cbrinker
Looks like my Wednesday prediction was spot-on. We'll see just how low we can
go tomorrow.

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charlesju
All the biggest market gains were in economic recessions and depressions.
Don't be fooled until the numbers come out positive for at least 2 quarters.

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bprater
Second largest point gain ever!

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ricree
This is the part that really starts to scare me. We keep seeing record or near
record swings, and it's starting to look like we'll get at least one per week.

Bad downturns happen, and there is plenty of reason to expect that we can
recover from them, yet I can't help but feel that these sorts of wild
oscillations show some sort of deeper trouble in the system itself.

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trjordan
Keep in mind that it's a record point gain, not a percentage gain. We're
constantly breaking those records because of inflation, and it's nothing to be
particularly concerned about.

If you keep hearing about record-breaking percentage swings, well, that's a
little more worrying.

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desaraev
ugh! I hate the recession!

<http://www.sniki.org>

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lallysingh
economy.fucked--;

( sleep(30); economy.fucked++ )?

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giardini
I don't visit Ycombinator for this kind of news.

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dmix
Then don't vote up.

It's just like capitalism, if your unhappy, don't buy the product.

~~~
davidw
You are free to air your views with producers in a capitalist system, you
know:-) Sometimes they even listen.

