

Black Swans and the Destruction of Western Civilization - cwan
http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/11915.html

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mistermann
I'm sorry, but this guy just lost me, and I read a large part of the article.

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patrocles
"It’s true that you have little to no ability to predict the future on your
own" -- the author misses Ferguson's point entirely. Ferguson would use
history to understand the present and to illumine the future.

However, a timeline's unpredictability (despite seeming like an obvious
concatenation of events) frustrates this goal and leaves us to hedge our bets
on the future.

The author has no such qualms, though. No matter how history turns out, he can
alway generate a fact-filled story that sounds completely reasonable.

