
Facebook and Google want China, but China doesn’t want them - williswee
https://www.techinasia.com/facebook-googles-long-road-china
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marco_salvatori
My suspicion is that its very unlikely that Google and FB are going to be able
to establish the government relationships that would allow them to operate
successfully in China.Google collects massive amounts of citizen data and it
has close relations with the US military / security institutions. The
combination means Google will never be a trusted operator in China. Facebook
is in a worse position. In addition to being a data collection platform with
US government connections, it is a communications platform not under the
direct control of China, located in the US.And these US communications
platforms have a history now of being associated with movements of anti-
government dissent around the world.

More generally, I dont see how US tech companies are going to be able to have
it both ways -- be both willing partners in US government policy and also non
threatening to Chinese sovereignty.

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seanmcdirmid
I don't see how Chinese tech companies are going to be able to have it both
ways either if they ever actually want to leave China. This is one market (the
world) vs. another market (China), and they are increasingly becoming
separated at the Internet level.

Also, if China decides the only way it can keep competing is by blocking their
competition, then the rest of the world will just wag their finger at them
when they complain about export markets for their cultural products. If the
Chinese government were smart, they would find a way to let Facebook and
Google in while maintaining control over censorship AND keeping its anointed
tech companies with majority market shares.

~~~
marco_salvatori
Yes, strict separation will probably be the norm where there are sovereignty
issues. And it will be enforced both ways. So for example,I will make the
claim that if Alipay expanded into the US it would own the entire payments
market in one year. Alipay is just that much better than anything else
available in the US. Plausible or not, Alipay will never operate successfully
in the US because the US will not cede sovereignty over part of its financial
infrastructure to China.

I can not say if that is smart or not. That question is outside of my
technical sphere of competence. But I believe it's an accurate evaluation of
how states will operate, as soon as these systems start being used to project
power.

~~~
phobosdeimos
This is a good point. You can do things with your smartphone in China that not
even advanced markets in Europe have figured out. The US tech sector isn't the
only player anymore.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Again, it’s not that they haven’t figured it out, it’s that there is no need
to do it. I’ve seen how payments happen with the phone by exhanging QR codes,
it’s a nice trick, but how could anyone claim that is better than the chip,
swipe, and tap infrastructure already pervasive in the west? China basically
skipped credit and debit cards, the West didn’t.

~~~
phobosdeimos
The only thing that is pervasive in the US are creditcards and the less said
about those the better.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
That really isn't true at all. Ya, they have a high-ish merchant charge, but
you don't see that as a consumer.

You can also go with debit cards if you want to, the only extra step is
entering a PIN sometimes (for some purchases over some amount).

In Australia, they have it even better by having much more pervasive tap to
pay in place. Why would anyone choose Alipay over tap to pay? You would have
to be nuts.

~~~
hakfoo
There are some other issues, but I'm not sure they're fixable by technology
alone:

* Getting from zero to accepting payments is long and complicated. Some of this can be streamlined, but how much of it is limited by anti-money-laundering regulations?

* The concept of "you can initiate a charge as long as you have about 40 bits of information, and can do so for 2-5 years or until the card is revoked" is a model doomed to fraud problems.

* There's no legal requirement that all potential legal merchants get serviced or at fair rates. See the recent discussions about payments for the porn industry; plenty of processors will not want to work with gun dealers.

* There's no solid standardization, so you can't shop around providers freely because changing who you buy from may mean you have to replace your swipe machines or rebuild your cart to talk to the new vendor's gateway of choice.

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malandrew
The best thing both of them can do (and every other tech giant that is not
Chinese) is to put up a moat around China and contain all the competing
Chinese tech companies to only China. This means putting extra effort into
every country that borders China and every country with whom China has a
strong economic relationship.

This isn't too different to how Facebook conquered universities where it was
#2 to some other social network. Instead of trying to replace the social
network at that university (A) with Facebook, it focused on all the
universities (B, C, D, etc.) around that university (A) so that there would be
a strong social network composed of the secondary universities (B, C, D, etc.)
and that would lead students at the first university (A) to join Facebook when
they made friends with students at the secondary universities (B, C, D, etc.).

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lalos
Facebook and Google want that 1 billion of possible users to comply with the
thirst of the stock market that has been accustomed to user growth metrics as
a signal for sustainable tech company. They have already expanded on where
they can and you can smell the desperation. Specially with projects like Free
Basics, Internet.org, Aquila, Loon and Skybender which are not charity, they
just want more users with internet to adopt there platforms to keep with the
growth metrics. It's going to be an interesting next 10 years for Google and
Facebook.

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newnewpdro
If you were China, would you want these American companies having such
visibility into and influence over your people's lives?

Just look at how FB was abused in the last election, of course China doesn't
want a third party running the show.

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est
Of course China want Google and Facebook, but only the "obedient and
compliant" Google and Facebook.

~~~
sanxiyn
No, China does not want Google just like South Korea does not want Google.
Everybody uses Naver here. China and South Korea do not want Google because
local alternatives are superior.

~~~
sonnyblarney
Ok then, let China have access to regular Google and Facebook and then
everyone can make up their own minds, how about that?

Because my bet is that there are 100's of millions of Chinese who wouldn't
mind access to Facebook or Google.

~~~
sanxiyn
Yes, that would be lovely. My bet is that Google will be #2 lagging Baidu a
lot. You can look at South Korean search market for a preview.

~~~
sonnyblarney
If Google is allowed in 'unrestricted' obviously they will be #1 by a wide
margin. But all things being equal, sure, maybe Baidu may be #1 ... but in
either case it's absurd to say 'China doesn't want Google' to the point of
being almost propagandistic.

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andromedavision
This is the type thing that makes me support President Trump. The Chinese have
very unfair business practices and they require a strong President to deal
with them.

~~~
Spooky23
Trump’s rhetoric was intriguing in this area at one point. The actions not so
much.

As he cracks about “shithole” countries, China is building the infrastructure
to exploit their resources. As allies in the Pacific look for leadership to
contain China, we’re insulting NATO nations, who are for all intents US
military vassal states.

~~~
andromedavision
> China is building the infrastructure to exploit their resources

This is even worse. China will eat up the world in a similar way in which they
ate up Sri-Lanka's port. Build a ton of infra for the developing world and
then once they're unable to pay for it, they camp in your country forcibly.

The debt is mounting in most countries where China has 'invested' in
infrastructure. For instance in Kenya, each Kenyan is estimated to already owe
the Chinese roughly $100 and counting. May not mean much in the west but
certainly is a lot of debt out of the total $1000 every Kenyan owes. Even the
IMF is freakishly worried about Kenya's debt for crying out loud.

The Chinese will use unethical/unfair business practices to earn wealth from
the west and then use it to recolonize developing countries while screwing
over every other western country. Luckily, GEOTUS Trump will be able to stop
this!

~~~
amaccuish
> This is even worse. China will eat up the world in a similar way in which
> they ate up Sri-Lanka's port. Build a ton of infra for the developing world
> and then once they're unable to pay for it, they camp in your country
> forcibly.

The US did exactly the same, see
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Plan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Plan).

~~~
Spooky23
Are you referring to the concessions made by Germany & Italy for military
basing, extraterritorial rights, etc?

I don't think that was contingent on Marshall Plan aid. Those things are more
to do with the victor taking the spoils. US policy here was more nuanced and
recognized that an impoverished and devastated europe was ultimately a threat
to peace.

~~~
ardy42
> Are you referring to the concessions made by Germany & Italy for military
> basing, extraterritorial rights, etc?

If he's thinking of stuff like that, I think those had more to do with
countries like West Germany not wanting to become countries like East Germany,
due to a Soviet invasion.

