

The Draper Curve - kdivvela
http://kdivvela.posterous.com/im-52-years-old-so-you-cant-say-i-dont-have-a

======
alextingle
Where's the historical evidence for this? Can I draw a graph like that for
steam engines? The plough? Telephones?

Without that it's just an optimistic line on a whiteboard that means "there
won't be another dot.com crash, this time it's to real".

~~~
jmount
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_Mania>

------
enko
This looks like a graphical interpretation of the well-known quote: "We tend
to overestimate the short term impact of a technology and underestimate the
long term impact." (Dr. Francis Collins - Director of the Human Genome
Project)

------
hallowtech
I wonder what the Donald Draper curve is like.

~~~
technomancy
Personally I was hoping for John Draper.

------
nprincigalli
Better explained here: <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle> and some
examples here: <http://www.floor.nl/ebiz/gartnershypecycle.htm>

------
rogerallen
Did he really claim ownership of the idea? Sounds exactly like what Moore
pointed out in 1991 via "Crossing the Chasm".
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossing_the_Chasm>

------
sloanie
Was there, mans a genius. Enough said.

------
nikcub
I can't think of where this holds true outside of the dotcom bubble.

For eg. the curve with social just keeps going up

~~~
zyfo
The second sentence of yours hardly speaks against a hype curve. Rather the
opposite, given recent valuations and the little market doubt/backlash.

