
Usage of Masks “Flattened” Growth of Coronavirus Cases in Czech Republic - prostoalex
https://www.praguemorning.cz/usage-of-masks-flattened-growth-of-coronavirus-cases-in-czech-republic/
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en-us
I will not be surprised if mask usage becomes normalized in Western cultures
after this, just as happened in Asian cultures after SARS.

~~~
kzrdude
The idea will probably lodge itself in our minds, but in practice there are no
masks to buy, so we can't even start getting used to it.

~~~
yellowstuff
I imagine that just like my grandparents who lived through the Depression
hoarded ketchup packets despite being financially secure, as soon as N95 masks
are freely available I will keep a stash handy for the rest of my life,
regardless of whether I ever face another pandemic, or official organizations
advise against it.

~~~
jerf
One intriguing question that I can't answer today is whether or not this
global pandemic is the exception, or whether 100+ years _without_ a global
pandemic is the exception.

Not to mention, you look out over the next 50-100 years, you gotta be
concerned about biological warfare. Having a population that knows how to
handle a pandemic keeps the non-science-fiction viruses at bay pretty well.

~~~
eridan2
But we had influenza pandemics in 1957 and 1968, plus the swine flu in 2009...

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_ph_
Even the most basic face masks would have some obvious consequences:

\- preventing infected from spreading the virus via droplets

\- preventing touching mouth and nose with your hands

For that to be effective, for a while anyone would need to wear a mask, as the
virus is usually spread by people who don't feel sick yet. Wearing masks would
add another barrier to spreading the virus, especially everywhere where you
can't quite keep 2 meters of distance, e.g. shops, public transport and could
be vital for reopening factories.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Depending on the mask, eg any N95 I’ve ever tried, you’ll touch your face a
lot more to constantly readjust it because of skin irritation. Surgical masks
are much more comfortable since they don’t form a seal.

~~~
_ph_
I think, if we are talking about "masks for everyone" it can only be surgical
masks, which are relatively cheap and comfortable. Or homemade replacements
made from cloth, which can be washed and reused. Some German clothing
companies already have started producing cloth masks too.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Yes, but the effectiveness goes way down. If we are talking about air
pollution (why I had to wear them when I did), surgical masks are useless. I
guess in the pandemic context, they prevent some moisture from your mouth from
reaching other people.

~~~
James_Henry
It may be ideal to have the most at risk wear n95 masks (and ideally get them
as much training on wearing them and only adjusting them with freshly cleaned
hands) while the rest of the population wears surgical masks and makeshift
masks of cloth or paper towels.

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boomboomsubban
There were 560 cases the day they started the policy, and 2817 eleven days
later. That's a "flattened" growth?

It will be interesting to see the Czech Republic's data and attempt to isolate
the benefit of the policy, but I don't see how one could draw a conclusion at
this point.

~~~
Symmetry
You can't see the effects of an intervention stopping new coronavirus
infections until you wait past the end of the incubation period of the virus.
And if you're not testing very aggressively it'll take another week beyond
that for mild illnesses to turn into the sort of thing that gets people to the
hospital.

Also, technically, if you go from an exponentially increasing problem to
getting the same number of infections every day you've "flattened the growth"
even though you haven't flattened the number cases.

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gus_massa
Is the data available somewhere?

> _Howard claimed that “one of the key reasons for the decrease in the growth
> of the cases is a massive country-wide community initiative to create and
> wear home-made masks.”_

What are the other measures they took?

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lousken
The data is available e.g. on the offical czech ministry of health
[https://onemocneni-aktualne.mzcr.cz/covid-19](https://onemocneni-
aktualne.mzcr.cz/covid-19) (can be easily translated with google)

And here is the list of measures [https://www.vlada.cz/en/media-
centrum/aktualne/measures-adop...](https://www.vlada.cz/en/media-
centrum/aktualne/measures-adopted-by-the-czech-government-against-
coronavirus-180545/)

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collinmanderson
Seems to me we all need to assume we're asymptotic carriers, and then follow
WHO's (or CDC's) advice for sick people, which is to wear some sort of mask or
bandana.

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seanmcdirmid
That isn’t WHO or CDC advice. If you are sick, you should just not go out.

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collinmanderson
[https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-
sick/st...](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/steps-
when-sick.html)

CDC says if you "think you might have COVID-19", you should "wear a facemask"
"to help protect other people in your home and community." "You may need to
improvise a facemask using a scarf or bandana."

Seems to me we should assume we "might have COVID-19" and then follow CDC's
advice to wear a scarf or bandana to protect other people.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Then those are different advices for thinking you might be sick and being
actually sick. If you are sick, don’t go out. If you just think you might be
sick, then put some cloth in front of your face.

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James_Henry
No, the CDC says, on the linked page:

>If you are sick wear a facemask in the following situations, if available.

>\- If you are sick: You should wear a facemask, if available, when you are
around other people (including before you enter a healthcare provider’s
office).

>\- If you are caring for others: If the person who is sick is not able to
wear a facemask (for example, because it causes trouble breathing), then as
their caregiver, you should wear a facemask when in the same room with them.
Visitors, other than caregivers, are not recommended.

>Note: During a public health emergency, facemasks may be reserved for
healthcare workers. You may need to improvise a facemask using a scarf or
bandana.

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henriquez
I thought the World Health Organization said that masks don’t work. Why would
they have said that if the opposite is true?

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en-us
I have been asking myself the same question. I think it comes down to two
reasons:

1\. Masks are in short supply and they believed they could save them for
healthcare workers by convincing the general population they don't work.

2\. If you are measuring efficacy, the general population won't reach the same
level as a healthcare worker because they have not been professionally fitted
and trained in on/off procedures. So instead of reducing risk by 95% the
average person would see something like a 70% reduction, and they decided
"perfect is better than good enough".

~~~
Symmetry
If they say "Masks work" when it only works 70% of the time then a lot of
people will get sick despite wearing masks, there'll be a big public outcry,
and people won't trust the WHO in the future.

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mnm1
Maybe. Or they can just lose all trust instantly by claiming like the CDC,
that they don't work. Now people who think will never trust the CDC ever
again. Not sure what the WHO's wording was, but any organization not
encouraging mass mask use cannot be trusted by anyone with a brain. Just
because something isn't 100% effective, doesn't mean it's not effective. Only
children and idiots think so. Unfortunately, we're surrounded by idiots.

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zerof1l
No doubts about usefulness of masks, however its too early to call Czech
Republic curve flat. Its anything but flat. Look at daily cases. There's not
enough data points yet. Italian curve looks more promising. For last 11 days,
there has been around 6,000 cases daily. Though, its likely from lack of
testing.

~~~
megous
Here's the official data: [https://onemocneni-
aktualne.mzcr.cz/covid-19](https://onemocneni-aktualne.mzcr.cz/covid-19)

It shows various trends, numbers of tests, numbers of new positive people,
etc.

Looks like the latest datapoints (fewer new cases) coincides with less
testing. But it's hard to interpret. It may be the weekend (very nice
weather), or it may be that less people are asking to get tested because there
are fewer serious cases.

We'll see soon how it develops further.

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mensetmanusman
This could be tried if there were enough masks. China prevented western N95
manufacturers from exporting masks out of their China facilities in February,
so they will get first dibs on attempting this strategy. One of the unforeseen
risks of globalization.

~~~
tres
The article states that they're using homemade masks -- even t-shirts wrapped
around their face.

It's not about filtering... there's something else happening here... I'd guess
that the mask is a constant reminder to keep your hands off your face.

~~~
megous
The messaging here around the improvised masks was not about filtering
(protecting yourself), it was about protecting the other people from bigger
droplets. By proxy that also protects yourself somewhat if pretty much
everyone is wearing something on their face.

This is of course only meaningful if almost everyone wears something. This is
true at the moment.

Anyway, even improvised masks have some filtering capability. It just varies a
lot based on many factors, and would not be something to depend on when you
want predictability from PPE in a hospital. It's just that regular people
should not have an excuse to spread their sputum everywhere just because they
can't buy medical grade PPE.

~~~
James_Henry
>This is of course only meaningful if almost everyone wears something. This is
true at the moment.

It's not true that you need almost everyone wearing something. Jeremy Howard
wrote

>Studies have documented definitively that in controlled environments like
airplanes, people with masks rarely infect others and rarely become infected
themselves, while those without masks more easily infect others or become
infected themselves.

>Masks don’t have to be complex to be effective. A 2013 paper tested a variety
of household materials and found that something as simple as two layers of a
cotton T-shirt is highly effective at blocking virus particles of a wide range
of sizes. Oxford University found evidence this month for the effectiveness of
simple fabric mouth and nose covers to be so compelling they now are
officially acceptable for use in a hospital in many situations.

[http://archive.vn/Dlabz#selection-1639.0-1653.170](http://archive.vn/Dlabz#selection-1639.0-1653.170)

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megous
Does that assume that infected people know who they are?

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James_Henry
Sorry, I think I was confused by the "This" in your sentence that I quoted. I
meant to point out that a mask protects you directly (if you are not sick) and
not just by lowering the spread of the disease throughout the population. It
seems that you actually agree and I misunderstood.

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g8oz
N95s are technically called Particulate Respirators. What the Czechs are
pushing for mass adoption are surgical masks or any type of mouth covering
even scarves. Less effective, but sufficient to flatten the curve. And you can
make them at home if you have sewing skills.

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neves
I can't recommend enough this video of Jeremy Howard (from Fast.ai fame):
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoDwXwZXsDI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoDwXwZXsDI)

There's a lot of scientific evidence that masks are useful.

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megous
Also some random arguments for masks are here:

[https://aiki.info/masks/](https://aiki.info/masks/)

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aaron695
The evidence is not clear yet, it will take ~ two weeks from implementation.

Graph -

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_t...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_Czech_Republic)

But you will also need lots of testing and contact tracing.

All these should decrease R0 and allow society to function.

