

Will Greece Will Exit the Eurozone in 2015? – Live Odds - lil_tee
http://www.gambletron2000.com/europe/12304/will-greece-exit-eurozone-in-2015

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sonium
...or one could resort to the implied risk at Greek government bonds. A bond
which matures in November next year trades at about 60% of the value you will
(or wont) receive at that date. In other words the odds are roughly 2:3 that
Greece defaults until then.

[http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/191049-Griechenland-
Anleihe](http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/191049-Griechenland-Anleihe)

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agiamas
if we don't, I will be really surprised...

You know nothing about our politicians..If you did, this wouldn't be 40-60 but
way more!

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djloche
Based on what I've heard from family that just got back from Greece, the
referendum will come in with a strong majority voting to reject the terms from
the EU/ECB/IMF, and the loans will be defaulted on.

Does this mean that the EU / EMU will vote to kick out GR from their unions?
Or that GR politicians will vote to leave EU / EMU ? As much as I personally
hope for the entire continent to reject the EMU and return to their own
currencies, these things are less clear.

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opcvx
Where does the data come from?

