
Silicon Valley's obscure unicorns could boost 2017 IPO market - SmkyMt
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-technology-ipos-idUSKBN14J0GY
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nostromo
Pretty sure this article gets written every new year. :) Here was last year's:

[http://www.reuters.com/article/us-atlassian-ipo-analysis-
idU...](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-atlassian-ipo-analysis-
idUSKBN0TS2DV20151209)

> Atlassian's public offering this week, among the most highly valued IPOs of
> the year, is expected to renew Wall Street's faith in some tech unicorns and
> prime the market for more companies to go public. In Atlassian, investors
> see more of what they want - profits and disciplined spending - which may be
> just the confidence boost they need to embrace more tech IPOs in 2016,
> according to bankers, fund managers and investors.

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empath75
Or they could bomb and make the bottom drop out of the market. Let's not count
our chickens.

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ChuckMcM
This is so true. People want another Facebook not another Zynga or Groupon.

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nullnilvoid
Does that imply the housing prices will grow even more in 2017? The new riches
will buy houses, which will raise the housing prices even more?

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twblalock
The number of new rich people created by IPOs is a minority of the aggregate
demand for housing. Plenty more people are moving to the area from elsewhere.

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aetherson
In terms of driving housing prices up, I'd expect growth in the stock prices
of the bigger companies to be a bigger deal. If Google's stock appreciates 20%
(or Apple's, or Microsoft's, or a rising market helps lots of companies out
5%), that affects a much larger number of people with equity than does adding
maybe 100 millionaires.

Especially if the main thing keeping a lot of people out of the market is
raising a down payment, not affording the monthly mortgage. To make a down
payment, you "only" need a few 100k, not millions. It's in reach for people
receiving significant equity value from their employers along with strong
salaries, you don't need to get boosted into the ultra-rich.

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mathattack
Some of it is geographic too. Apple/Google/LinkedIn impacts Mountain View,
Sunnyvale and Cupertino. (Palo Alto is already through the roof) Less of an
impact in the city where other dynamics are also in play.

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IvarTheHomeless
And San francisco

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withdavidli
> The handful of technology companies that managed to go public near the end
> of 2016 have shown strong stock performances. Twilio Inc (TWLO.N), Coupa
> Software Inc (COUP.O), Nutanix Inc (NTNX.O) and Blackline Inc (BL.O) are now
> trading above their offer prices, boosting the confidence of their private
> peers that there is pent-up demand for such IPOs.

This is misleading. I just looked at these companies and 3 out of 4 are
trading below first days closing with a clear down trend. They did see the
first day pop, peaked around Q3 and falling.

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yalogin
Is snapchat good enough? It looks like everyone is assuming it's a solid
business and that the IPO is going to be ok. Is it correct?

~~~
almostApatriot1
how many people you know own a pair of Spectacles?

~~~
xzel
Since it was a limited release, I think a better question is how many people
do you know that want/wanted a pair of Spectacles? How many people were
willing to pay above retail for a pair?

~~~
s3r3nity
This - I live on the East Coast (where they are RARE) and I'm pretty excited
to get one. I learned that a bunch of my co-workers are as well --
surprisingly across the age spectrum. One is a mother in mid-30's that loves
the idea of effortlessly capturing moments with her kids.

Last year I was a Snap skeptic, but their marketing is on-point.

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bsder
> One is a mother in mid-30's that loves the idea of effortlessly capturing
> moments with her kids.

Then they need to IPO _immediately_.

The moment its demographic moves from tweens to adults is the moment a social
network begins its downfall.

~~~
twblalock
> The moment its demographic moves from tweens to adults is the moment a
> social network begins its downfall.

Facebook is doing better than ever and its demographics continue to skew
older.

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Axiverse
Why are IPOs so important? Is this what investors are looking towards
primarily for ROI? I suppose SV IPOs and the housing market?

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kspaans
Generally speaking, without an IPO, all of the employees that have equity have
no way of selling it and cashing out their earnings[0].

And then there is all of the prestige and hype around an IPO (if it goes
well).

0 - Sure, sometimes companies will allow employees to sell their shares to
someone, usually an existing investor.

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sbuttgereit
Don't forget acquisitions though, you don't need to be public to be acquired
and those deals also cash out vested employees.

We can talk about if that's favorable or not relative to an IPO, but public
offering isn't the only way out. Actually, I expect acquisition is probably a
more common exit for employees than IPOs.

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dharma1
General question - how early/late on average do you have to join a company as
an employee to benefit from an exit?

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withdavidli
Never worked at a tech start up so take with grain of salt. I have been in
recruiting for a few years so seen how it affects candidates monetarily. I'm
answering this question based on benefit = money. Depends on the company. If
the company is unstable (no profit or losing money as is a lot of tech) it's
never certain. If they are already showing profit or a way to profitability I
would do a year or so before you think they'll IPO. This gives you likely
upside on the stock, you'll vest a portion of your stock and be able to sell
after the employee lockup period. This isn't a guarantee, look at Zynga's IPO
and flop right after.

My opinion maximizes on safety before an IPO exit. You likely don't want to
play acquisition unless you know you'll get a retention offer from the new
company (you run the key feature/product for the acquired company).

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Hydraulix989
Isn't "obscure unicorn" an oxymoron?

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kelukelugames
Obscure is the a catchy marketing word like weird. For example, "10 obscure
tricks to do x". We should remove it from the title.

~~~
Hydraulix989
Yes, and that's not the actual meaning of the word.

