
Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey - OJKoukaz
http://www.teslacost.com
======
dangero
I'm pretty skeptical about resale value on the Model S at 5 or more years out
just because their newer models will have major technical advances and the
cost of a battery replacement. It's hard to speculate on that right now since
the car is too new.

~~~
robomartin
For some reason I can't quite put my finger on I have been viewing everything
that comes out of Tesla with skepticism and distrust. I think it started with
the attempt to confuse people with "creative" financing options.

I know it is a good company. I was waiting for them to revolutionize the SUV
market with a true sports-utility electric vehicle. I would have been in line
to buy one. Instead they are putting out a bullshit Gucci gull-wing
contraption that is a total let-down. That's when I ceased to be interested in
Tesla.

For a number of reasons we recently purchased a used two-year-old low-mileage
BMW. For a little more money we got extended coverage that takes care of
everything for seven years. We even covered the (expensive) tires.

We could have bought more than one fully-covered low-mileage certified-pre-
owned BMW for the cost of a single Tesla.

My wife ran over something and punctured a tire a couple of months ago. Being
a "run flat" tire, she drove to the nearest BMW dealer. They gave her a loaner
car for the day and, for a $50 deductible, replaced the $500 tire and cleaned
and washed her car.

So I read an article like this and my first reaction is: Who are they trying
to fool?

~~~
warfangle
> Instead they are putting out a bullshit Gucci gull-wing contraption that is
> a total let-down.

What's a let-down about it? Legitimately curious.

~~~
bryanlarsen
Easy access to third row seating is a solved problem. But sliding doors aren't
"cool". So they either get replaced with over-engineered contraptions like
those silly gull wing doors, or even worse, they get replaced with standard
doors that pretty much render the third row useless, like most SUV's do.
(assuming child seats, which is the bulk of your 3 row market)

~~~
warfangle
The original parent implied strongly that it wasn't just the falcon-wing doors
(two-hinged; the e.g. delorean had only one hinge) that was a total let down.
Made me think they were let down by capacity or clearance or torque or Other
Criteria(tm) as well.

> or even worse, they get replaced with standard doors

But we're talking about the X here, which doesn't.

~~~
jdeibele
I think a big let-down is that there's still no pricing available for the car.
I see estimates from third parties that it's expected to be 5-10% more than a
comparable Model S but there's nothing official that I can find.

The doors seem silly. I drive an Odyssey and love sliding doors for the kids
or the dog or when I have an armload of groceries. I've seen the sliding doors
back up when they bump into something. I know they work. And they're
reasonably fast, which is important when you live in Oregon with the rain.

------
jsnk
Repost from 18 hours ago
([https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7583256](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7583256))

~~~
dang
I've buried this post as a dupe.

------
js2
Just to throw some maintenance numbers out there since I happen to own a 2003
Odyssey with over 170k miles and I've kept track of the costs in a
spreadsheet. So far I've spent just under $10k in maintenance.

The big annoying charge was ~ $4200 at 110k miles in 2010. The transmission
failed, so this charge was for a Honda remanufactured transmission and PCM,
plus the 105k maintenance (new timing belt).

The other significant charges are brakes and tires. It's almost $1k to replace
the tires and brake rotors, which on this vehicle have been around every 50k
miles.

SWAG at fuel costs: 170k / 20 mpg * $3 ~ $25k.

~~~
mrfusion
Isn't that early for the transmission to fail?

~~~
js2
Yes, but not uncommon for that generation:

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Odyssey_(North_America)#T...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Odyssey_\(North_America\)#Transmission_issues)

I probably won't purchase a Honda again.

~~~
anonhondaowner
Yikes. Do you think the 2014's are any better? I wonder if I can extend my
warranty beyond 100K?

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tasty_freeze
First: "I'd only purchased 3 cars before in my life. A Toyota Camry, that I
drove for 12 years. ... A Honda Odyssey, that we had owned for 6 years. And a
Nissan Leaf, that we had owned for 3 years. "

Then: "The RAV4 EV, which we had just purchased, decimated the pack."

These two statements aren't compatible. Or somehow I am repeatedly misreading
what he is saying.

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not_that_noob
As much as I admire Elon and Tesla, Consumer Reports rated Audi clean diesel
at a cheaper cost per mile than Tesla. So the comparison I'd really like to
see is Tesla against the Audis.

~~~
not_that_noob
My bad - I misremembered - this is the quote from CR: "When it comes to
efficiency, the Tesla is a runaway. The A7 gets an impressive 28 mpg overall,
but the Model S delivers the equivalent of 84 mpg. That translates into only
4.4 cents per mile for the Tesla (based on an electricity rate of 11 cents per
kilowatt- hour) vs. 14.3 cents for the Audi (based on diesel costing $4.00 per
gallon)."

As you were.

EDIT: Ok I now remember why I misremembered. The delta in operating cost is
about 10 cents/mile. The delta in price is $18,755 (ignoring rebates, credits,
etc.). So you would have to drive 187,550 miles for the Tesla to come out
ahead. In other words, the TDI A7 is at a similar TCO to the Tesla, but with
extended range and quick fueling.

~~~
TylerE
And then you can look at something like the BMW 328d that is "only" $42k and
gets 43mpg, or a VW Golf TDI (Disclaimer: I own one) for around $27k and
40-45mpg in the real world.

FWIW, my lifetime actual fuel costs have $0.110/mi over almost 40,000 miles,
and that's based on basiclly worst possible variables... auto transmission
instead of a stick, hot climate (lots of A/C usage, which is about a 2-5mpg
ding), and lots of city driving.

------
josephpmay
Not including insurance was a mistake. The Honda Odyssey has some of the
cheapest insurance of any car.

~~~
slantyyz
>> The Honda Odyssey has some of the cheapest insurance of any car.

That depends on where you live. I've been told that my insurance rates (clean
record) are high for my 2005 Odyssey because of the area I live in (I live
just outside of Toronto, Canada).

~~~
brk
Right, but the Odyssey would be cheaper to insure in your area than a Tesla
(theoretically).

Insurance costs are very localized, but for any 2 vehicles the coverage cost
spread between them is probably comparable in any given region. EG: an Odyssey
will always be cheaper to insure than a Model S in any specific region, BUT
insuring an Odyssey in Toronto might be more expensive than insuring a Model S
in Tulsa.

~~~
slantyyz
I wasn't disputing the Odyssey's insurance vs. a Tesla, but the claim that
"The Honda Odyssey has some of the cheapest insurance of any car."

I pay more for insurance than some people I know who drive newer, more
expensive cars.

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api
In the long run EVs have the potential to be radically cheaper than gasoline
cars: fewer moving parts, etc.

------
lafar6502
\- How do you service your Tesla? Do you have to go to Tesla-authorized shop
or can you do it in any workshop? How does it affect repair and maintenance
costs if you have no alternatives?

\- What about the 'guaranteed' buyback option? I'd be afraid that a buyback
will be the only option to sell your old Tesla, because they won't be re-
sellable on a free market without a costly hw/sw upgrade that can be done ONLY
by Tesla.

\- There's no way to reduce your costs by using third party replacement parts
or batteries.

\- A single failure can ruin your ROI calculations because the repair costs
are hard to predict.

\- The market for used Teslas is limited to areas where the charging network
is available

~~~
takeda
> How do you service your Tesla? Do you have to go to Tesla-authorized shop or
> can you do it in any workshop? How does it affect repair and maintenance
> costs if you have no alternatives?

There's not much to service, and normally you should do it once a year. The
mechanics currently don't have schematics for Model S so it probably feels
better to have it fixed at the company. I would imagine that you could get
brakes replaced at your local mechanic, but I can't think of anything else
they could do with it.

For example Tesla doesn't even have ODB-II port for diagnostics (it was
recently revealed that instead of CanBus they use Ethernet). Things like that
make the car is very different and the mechanic might know less about the car
than yourself.

~~~
manacit

        It was recently revealed that instead of CanBus they use Ethernet
    

If you're referring to the thread on teslamotorsclub.com[1], they are not
using Ethernet for any sort of communication aside from infotainment and there
is definitely a CAN bus[2].

There's been speculation that UDP broadcasts from the CAN bus are carried over
that network as well, but it's almost certainly used for displaying
information and informing various non-essential systems.

[1]:
[http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/28185-Successf...](http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/28185-Successful-
connection-on-the-Model-S-internal-Ethernet-network)

[2]:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7535589](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7535589)

------
pjschlic
Am I missing something here? I tried to use his number to run a net present
value assessment of a few example cars and came up with wildly different
numbers of NPV. I think a Tesla is cool, but if you are trying to save money
by buying a 93k Tesla rather than a 50k BMW, you might not be saving all you
think you are (assuming a 3% depreciation factor for future money, I didn't
see what he was using, looking only at the year 8 when the car is sold back):

Tesla S85:

[year one] 93,970+8222+1170

[Tax break] -(10000/1.03)

[resale] -(30,160/(1.03^8))

[electricity and maintenance]
+(600/1.03)+(1900/1.03)+(600/1.03^2)+(650/1.03^3)+(650/1.03^4)+(1300/1.03^5)+(1300/1.03^6)+(1350/1.03^7)+(1350/1.03^8)

= -78383 NPV

BMW 382d (ICE with greatest depreciation / maintenance):

[Year one] 50000+4480+1200

[Resale] -(15000/(1.03^8))

[Gas and maintenance]
+(1594/1.03)+(1631/1.03^2)+(1669/1.03^3)+(1706/1.03^4)+(2288/1.03^5)+(4327/1.03^6)+(2365/1.03^7)+(2404/1.03^8)

= -59385 NPV

Did I make a mistake here?

------
jstultz
I'm skeptical of his estimated electricity cost; as a Bay Area resident,
$0.12/kwh seemed low, so at first I thought he might be in an area of the
country with lower energy costs, but he states he's actually in Silicon
Valley.

I'm not sure how his particular usage and rates compare, but the rates for my
most recent PG&E bill are as follows:

$0.13627 for the first 487.20 kWh $0.15491 for the next 146.6 kWh $0.31949 for
the next 340.9 kWh and then up.

In my area, according to my bill, average household usage (for the past month)
is 400kWh, and 250kWh for "efficient homes." I'd imagine average use is higher
in the summer months due to air conditioning, etc, and higher in the winter
months due to heating and lighting.

So, right off the bat, $0.12/kWh is low, but perhaps rates were a bit lower
when he did this analysis, or he lives in an area with cheaper rates? But
let's assume that he's an efficient user of electricity, and uses 250
kWh/month for things aside from the car. He estimated 15k miles per year, at 3
miles/kWh, that's 416 kWh per month, which works out to roughlly $65.50/month,
or $785/year, not $600.

If we instead assume he's an average user in a home that's not "efficient", it
goes way up to roughly $92/month, or about $1100/year.

Obviously I don't know this person's exact rates for electricity, or his
usage, and it may be the case that there are credits associated with having an
electric car that can bring his average rates down or prevent him from going
into the higher tiers (as he said, he could often charge for free at work),
but regardless an estimate of $0.12/kWh seems strikingly low. I'm sure there
are areas of the country where that's reasonable, or even high, but I don't
think the Bay Area is one of them.

Of all the cost analyses of Tesla ownership that I've seen (admittedly few), I
have yet to see one that attempts to take into account the higher marginal
electricity cost associated with using significantly more electricity.

~~~
stcredzero
_I 'm skeptical of his estimated electricity cost; as a Bay Area resident,
$0.12/kwh seemed low, so at first I thought he might be in an area of the
country with lower energy costs, but he states he's actually in Silicon
Valley._

Maybe he lives in Alameda?

~~~
jstultz
Do you mean Alameda county, or actually on Alameda, the island? If the former,
I live in Alameda county, so that wouldn't explain it. If Alameda the island,
why would costs be lower there? (honest question)

~~~
stcredzero
City owns the local power company and gives lower rates to the citizens.

------
giarc
Why exclude all North American manufacturers? I was hoping the author would
address the exclusion.

~~~
Deusdies
Well, generally the North American car manufacturers produce cars of much
poorer quality compared to the Japanese, Korean, and European car makers.

~~~
runako
I think this is a dated perception. JD Power shows a fair showing of American
cars in its 2013 initial quality study:

[http://autos.jdpower.com/ratings/quality/cars.htm](http://autos.jdpower.com/ratings/quality/cars.htm)

~~~
soperj
I've always found JD Power to be a bit biased towards American made cars.
Maybe because he worked for Ford and GM, I don't know, but even at their
worst, they always seemed to be featured by them.

~~~
gtaylor
I'm not sure about the American bias, as I see tons of non-US cars in the
sedans list, but their truck ratings are a travesty:

[http://autos.jdpower.com/ratings/quality/trucks.htm](http://autos.jdpower.com/ratings/quality/trucks.htm)

I have been utterly unimpressed with the Silverados and Avalanches. For that
kind of money, I expect a lot more than fragile/cheap interiors (Silverado)
and the crummy bed on the Avalanche.

------
justinph
I'm surprised a Prius V was not included in this matrix. It would seem to fit
favorably within the range of features the OP was looking for, but also is
efficient, low maintenance, and safe.

I love Tesla, but they are just not there yet on cost.

~~~
r00fus
I'd second this, but as someone who loves hybrids/EVs, I am very disappointed
that a minivan class hybrid doesn't exist in the US (it does in Japan: Toyota
Estima Hybrid is apparently a hybrid Sienna). Was forced to buy a standard
minivan (we chose Sienna) as the PriusV is too small for our needs.

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stretchwithme
I plugged some more realistic values into Tesla's TCO page and it still is way
more expensive than what the 14 year old Toyota I drive :-)

    
    
      http://www.teslamotors.com/true-cost-of-ownership

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anxman
As a 2013 Model S owner, even I am skeptical of the OP's calculation. The big
"what if", as mentioned by other posters, is the depreciation value of the
vehicle. EV vehicles typically depreciate more quickly than ICE vehicles and
we don't have enough trailing sales data to know appropriate numbers yet.

That being said, I love everything about Tesla and even if the car depreciates
more quickly than a Mercedes or BMW, I'd still be happy with it.

------
analyst74
I've also been very interested in true ownership cost of cars, and what I
noticed is that for new cars, cost of depreciation overshadows all other costs
combined for the first 2~3 years, longer for luxury brands.

So there is no point calculating the TCO of new car over more than 3 years,
because if you are OK driving an old car, it's always much cheaper to buy
used.

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skywhopper
What's up with the font on this site? In Google Chrome on Windows 7 it's
nearly unreadable. Most of the internal horizontal strokes are just missing
from the letters.

~~~
lucb1e
I haven't used Windows for close to a year, but last time I used Chrome on
Windows 7 the font rendering was horrible more often than not. Especially
blogs, they often want to have their own look with some web font (which then
tells google exactly who is visiting the site -- but whatever). They always
rendered horrible and I complained about it to a few sites, which then changed
it, but complaining to individuals doesn't scale of course.

