

Job losses in six recessions: Percent decline in payroll employment from peak month - curtis
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2009/02/chart_of_the_day_-_2092009.html

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bluishgreen
It appears that if the fall is steep the recovery is also steep. Makes sense
if you think about it, and that is good news for the current recession.

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critic
The plots are symmetric, indeed. Best case scenario though, if we start
recovering immediately, full recovery is still 12 months away.

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njharman
Anyone have a theory why the more recent recessions had such long troughs and
slow recoveries?

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mattobrien
Because they were the result of bubbles bursting, not the Fed raising interest
rates. The 1981-82 recession was very steep, but the recovery was very quick,
precisely because the Fed induced the recession by raising rates, and then
ended it by lowering them. Our recent recessions have featured bubbles
bursting, so the Fed has ended up lowering rates to try to induce recovery,
although each time monetary policy has been less potent. As our mega credit
bubble has burst, we are now at a point at which monetary policy has no
traction - we've reached the zero bound, and are only left with more
unconventional measures like buying longer term Treasuries - so we can expect
a steep decline, and a slow recovery. At best we will have a U shaped
recession; at worst, an L shaped depression.

