

I see dead startups - TristanKromer
http://vlaskovits.com/2011/05/i-see-dead-startups/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Vlaskovits+%28Vlaskovits%29

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staunch
This is by far the most difficult problem in startups: Should you persevere or
pivot?

I think Paul Buchheit's advice is probably the best way to decide. He says to
(paraphrasing) "find 100 people that love your product".

It's not enough for you, or a tiny number of people to say your thing is good.
You need a sizable (but still very small) number of people to _love_ your
product.

It's kind of a "wisdom of the crowds" solution. You might be wrong, your
friends might be wrong, but if 100 people _love_ your product it's very likely
that you're on to something.

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tmcneal
Yes, but are these people friends/family/colleagues, or actual stakeholders or
potential users? Obviously more weight should be given to the later.

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bitsm
The problem with the metaphor "you're dead but you don't know it" is that at
the end of the movie, Willis' character accepts his situation -- pretty
easily, in fact. The startup founder is unlikely to see the light so quickly.

How to break free of the delusion? Maybe by pondering the opportunity costs of
not pursuing a new startup worth at least 2x (pick a reasonable concrete
number) of your current one? Using real, achievable numbers might make it
easier to take that leap of faith.

I think most dead startups suffer from "a bird in the hand is worth two in the
bush" syndrome (sorry, had to toss in a metaphor of my own) -- knowing how
difficult it was to get the "dead" startup off the ground, it's difficult to
face starting over.

I was a cofounder of what I used to call "the most successful startup that
could never make any money". We got press consistently, did some cool
partnerships with big companies (always free), and were driving steadily away
from any kind of a revenue model. My partner got stubborn and, frankly,
arrogant about the business, despite its professional amateur status, and I
had to finally leave. He could not be made to see the light, no matter what I
or anyone else said. Now he runs it as a calling card to get himself speaking
gigs at conferences.

After writing this down, I'm not sure there was anything I could have said to
convince him to spend his time any other way. He's not a math person, so
opportunity costs are lost on him. There was nothing I could do but let him
man the boat alone and drift off into the night.

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sovande
We are running a "startup" which is not a success nor a failure. This is the
worst because we are not dead, but neither are we quite alive either;

We have a (fairly well known) product, but with only 263 customers acquired
over 2 years. It brings in about $6,500 per month. The income does not
increase much from month to month, but seems relative stable. We are two
people working on this and the small income reduces this to more or less a
hobby project.

So to keep with the analogy, I guess you could call us a zombie startup.

I realize that there are to few data points, but I would love to learn if
others have been in the same situation and what they have done.

~~~
thaumaturgy
What you have there may not actually be a "zombie startup"; projects like
yours were once known as "businesses", although that's a term that's fallen
out of favor in the last internet-decade ("calendar year") on post-modern
journalist hubs like TechCrunch and community forums like HackerNews.

I quickly went over to my "bookshelves" and dusted off some ancient
collections of business knowledge, and it seems that, prior to the current
internet-decade, the classical advice was to simply continue operating,
looking for slow, steady growth, and enjoy having your own "business" rather
than working for someone else. Clearly, this sort of advice isn't valid
anymore; if a startup doesn't lead to a $100 million dollar exit in 3 years,
then it has failed and just doesn't know it yet. I think most startups would
advise you to abandon your customers and build a social network, as those seem
to have good odds these days of leading to success ($100m in 3 years).

(...with tongue firmly in cheek. :-) )

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JoeAltmaier
I don't see the lesson - nothing is offered to help distinguish the walking
dead from the wounded warriors. Sure, if we all had a crystal ball we'd stop
fruitless pursuits lots quicker. So what?

~~~
thaumaturgy
Yeah, this thing was miserably devoid of any content -- just some new names
for the same ol' thing, driving traffic to some dude's blog to collect some
internet fame (and a little money for the ads that my browser doesn't
display).

And I fell for it. Phooey. Guess this means I should get to work this morning.

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ern
Since he uses The Sixth Sense as his main metaphor, I should point out that I
figured out "the twist" before seeing the movie, since I watched it after many
other people. Everyone talking mysteriously about "THE TWIST", made it pretty
obvious, in combination with the trailer.

I suppose we could extend this experience to startups. Everyone who hears the
constant "bubble" talk, and knows about the .com crash would probably be wary
of being dead already.

[edit: Serves me right for trying to constructively engage a tortured analogy]

~~~
sliverstorm
What, exactly, does bragging about how you foresaw the major plot point of a
10 year old movie add to this discussion?

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ern
TFA uses the metaphor of a ten year old movie, not me. In fact it presents the
plot twist as part of its main argument - people don't realize that they are
trapped in a dead business model, and are shocked when they find out.

The fact is that these "twists" are not particularly surprising after everyone
talks about them all the time. If you are shocked by the _possibility_ of
having a dud business, then you are a fool.

And no, I wasn't bragging about figuring out the plot. I was pointing out that
a "twist" loses effectiveness, if everyone knows that it exists, and is
looking for it.

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saraid216
Is the concept offered by this article so difficult that a new analogy needs
to be on the table to help people understand it?

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rglover
I'm sorry but that was a pointless article. I get the point and the author
makes a good statement, but was the Sixth Sense business really necessary? Boo
hiss.

