

Earth dodged a massive magnetic eruption from Sun that could have wreaked havoc - linux_devil
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/science/Earth-dodged-a-massive-magnetic-eruption-from-Sun-that-could-have-wreaked-havoc/articleshow/32305688.cms

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onion2k
Somewhat less melodramatic space.com article about it:
[http://www.space.com/17103-sun-eruption-fastest-solar-
plasma...](http://www.space.com/17103-sun-eruption-fastest-solar-plasma-
cloud.html)

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CWuestefeld
_One Second After_ is a novel describing the possible outcome of such an event
[1]. It's a pretty good read.

 _Months before publication, One Second After has already been cited on the
floor of Congress as a book all Americans should read, a book already being
discussed in the corridors of the Pentagon as a truly realistic look at a
weapon and its awesome power to destroy the entire United States, literally
within one second. It is a weapon that the Wall Street Journal warns could
shatter America. In the tradition of On the Beach, Fail Safe and Testament,
this book, set in a typical American town, is a dire warning of what might be
our future...and our end._

[1] [http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/4922079-one-second-
after](http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/4922079-one-second-after) (note that
the synopsis given is wrong, I think. I recall that the event in the book was
from a war, but simply unexplained because the normal folks had no way of
knowing what the source of the EMP was.)

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TrainedMonkey
I got few questions:

Do we have any kind of recovery plan from this? As I understand almost all
electronics would be deep fried, including machinery used in factories that
make electronics we need to replace.

Would impact be localized to part of the planet facing sun?

What kind of shielding would be required on most sensitive infrastructure to
protect it?

How deep data center would need to be to avoid data on hard drives being
wiped?

~~~
xpda
1\. It depends on who "we" are. For almost everybody, it would be a non-event
but for the hype in the media. Electronics would not be deep fried. Some
damage would occur to satellites, but few would be permanently affected.

2\. "Impact" would be from the sun. The magnetic effect can wrap around the
earth to some extent.

3\. Most "infrastructure" would require no shielding. The atmosphere does a
good job, except for certain circumstances.

4\. No hard drives would come close to being wiped by the CME, even it was
directed at earth.

This CME was rated about 80 nanoTesla. The "Carrington Event" of 1859 was
about 50 percent stronger. This CME is notable primarily because of its speed,
not its size or destructive potential (except when used for selling
newspapers).

~~~
fhars
A non-event, but for the minor annoyance of:

 _Impacts would be felt on interdependent infrastructures, with, for example,
potable water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and
medications lost in about 12-24 hours; and immediate or eventual loss of
heating /air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, transportation,
fuel resupply, and so on. Kappenman stated that the effects on these
interdependent infrastructures could persist for multiple years, with a
potential for significant societal impacts and with economic costs that could
be measurable in the several-trillion-dollars-per-year range._
[http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12507&page=77](http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12507&page=77)

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pavel_lishin
> good fortune prevailed on the blue planet which was placed on the other side
> of the sun at the time.

> Had the eruption come nine days earlier, it would have hit Earth

Wait, the year is 18 days long now?

~~~
JoeAltmaier
The sun rotates! Every 25 days.
[http://www.windows2universe.org/sun/Solar_interior/Sun_layer...](http://www.windows2universe.org/sun/Solar_interior/Sun_layers/differential_rotation.html)

~~~
pavel_lishin
Oh, I see, that makes a lot more sense. Thanks!

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waqf
"… could have _wrought_ …"

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scj
Hypothetically, what could be done to reduce the impact?

~~~
computer
Well, hypothetically: unplug everything on that side of the planet right
before it hits, especially the main power lines.

~~~
BrandonMarc
I like how damn near every article can have a related XKCD comic ...

[https://xkcd.com/509/](https://xkcd.com/509/)

~~~
deletes
A common misconception. Ha, try finding that one...

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mark-r
What is the projection angle or area of one of these storms? I'd guess that
the vast majority miss Earth.

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clamprecht
This reminds me of a conversation I had with a friend once. I said, "I avoid
accidents while driving all the time." He replied, "you avoid an infinite
number of accidents!" I guess similarly, the earth avoids an infinite number
of interstellar events?

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cordite
I wonder how many would die because freezers and microwaves stopped
functioning.

~~~
Phlarp
It's not just that; transportation and production would be affected as well.

The trucks that move food and the tractors that plant it would stop working
just the same as the freezers and microwaves. In addition, payment networks
would be dead so you'd be left with the cash in your pocket and no way to get
more. Not hard to see how quickly society would start to collapse at that
point.

~~~
smokinjoe
You have low standards for society if you it would crumble that quickly.

Granted there would be some chaos, but I really don't think people would so
rapidly 'devolve'.

~~~
_archon_
I propose that GP is closer to the truth than you may believe. All of the
modern logistical systems in place (in the US) are based on embedded controls.
Train switching is hugely important for freight, and there hasn't been an
18-wheeler manufactured in the last 15 years (at least) without electronic
engine and braking controls. Those together are the lifeblood of American
logistics. If these control systems are simultaneously borked and not
repaired/replaced, grocery stores would show empty shelf sections within weeks
and would have to adjust their business models quickly to stay open.

Industrial food machinery would be likely disabled by anything strong enough
to affect logistical systems. No more pasteurized milk from automated systems,
there goes >80% of supply. Anything not driven by a belt or shaft would be
taken out. That means that the farming machines in use today which allow a
farmer to produce orders of magnitude more food than a century ago "may" work,
depending on how they're controlled. Most modern systems have electronic
controls of ancillary systems, but many farmers can get around that sort of
thing in a pinch.

Also, anyone on life support would die. Anyone requiring dialysis would likely
die. Hospitals would have power from generators, but their power distribution
and control systems would be fried. Doctors are able to use modern knowledge
but have to look everything up in books. Digital patient records are
inaccessible. Medicine supplies are restricted to what is on hand, which
likely amounts to less than a month's stock. This is due to logistics, but
also to the control systems in place at pharma manufacturing plants being
fried.

This is just food and medicine. All programmers who can't hardware hack become
farmers and traffic control officers until power comes back, which could take
time considering the machinery to make modern transformers has digital
controls.

This assumes that factories have inadequate EMF shielding, which is the
premise of the situation.

~~~
smokinjoe
Does this assumption also include the other half of the World ignoring the
affected? You raise some excellent points, but I think for chaos levels to
reach society-crumbling status, it'd need to stop the whole World.

Then absolutely, it would be devastating and the resulting power-struggle when
trying to maintain order within so many ranks of authority throughout various
Governments would end in disaster.

However, if the other half of the World is relatively unscathed, I don't think
they would _let_ the other half just fall into oblivion.

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logfromblammo
You would think that after 5.5 billion years of playing, the Sun would know
that it needs to lead its targets when shooting.

~~~
krapp
You don't need to be accurate shooting a fish in a barrel, you just need to be
patient.

------
briantakita
A heuristic to mitigate this problem: decentralization. Decentralize power
production. Decentralize food production. Decentralize communication networks.
Decentralize manufacturing.

Decentralize also creates robust systems which will make it easier to recover
from such an event.

