
Analysis of the Nahid-1/Safir launch failure satellite image - bb88
https://github.com/cbassa/satellite_analysis/blob/master/nahid1_launch_failure_analysis.ipynb
======
DangerousPie
Very interesting analysis!

For more context: [https://www.npr.org/2019/08/30/755994591/president-trump-
twe...](https://www.npr.org/2019/08/30/755994591/president-trump-tweets-
sensitive-surveillance-image-of-iran)

~~~
rocqua
Combining the height of 382km from the notebook with the supposed resolution
of 20 cm from that link gives an angular resolution of 0.00003 degrees [1].
That is about 2.5 * the angular resolution of the Hubble telescope. However,
as that article notes, this image was taken through atmosphere.

I don't know much about telescopes, but some googling seemed to reveal earth
based telescopes with similar resolutions. Hence, it seems within the range of
possibility.

[1]
[https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=20cm+%2F+382+km+radian...](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=20cm+%2F+382+km+radians)

~~~
salty_biscuits
The interesting thing you can derive is what the lower bound is on the
diameter of the imaging system via the diffraction limit. I get about 1 meter
(but have fat fingers and sleep deprivation). Which is big, but not crazy big.

Edit. 224 is supposed to be a variation of this guy [1], which has a 2.4 metre
mirror (which should be more like 7cm on the ground).

[1][https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KH-11_Kennen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KH-11_Kennen)

~~~
rocqua
Does that 7cm figure include the effects of atmospheric dispersion?

~~~
salty_biscuits
That is the minimum possible resolution* (hence the lower bound on the
diameter). Atmospheric stuff will make it worse and be variable from day to
day (and depends on the length of the exposure, which would be a bigger
problem looking at stars than the earth). I think that is around 2
microradians for astronomical telescopes.

*there are tricks to get super-resolution, but ignore that stuff.

------
drmpeg
More discussion on the author's Twitter feed.

[https://twitter.com/cgbassa](https://twitter.com/cgbassa)

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tyingq
Any Farsi literate readers here? What's the writing on the concrete circle at
the bottom say?

Edit: Argh, it's in the article... _" The product of national empowerment"_.
Interested though, if that's accurate or has alternate interpretations. Seems
intended to be read by spy satellites...

~~~
knolax
> Seems intended to be read by spy satellites...

That seems like a stretch. If it was meant for spy satellites wouldn't it be
in English and have a message that's a little less generic?

~~~
tyingq
I'll bite. What other reason for such huge letters facing upwards? Based on
the trucks, they are 1-2 meters high.

~~~
jvanderbot
Launches are often filmed from aircraft for promotional purposes. So yes, they
are probably intended to be read from above, just nothing so drastic as spy
sats.

~~~
gus_massa
Just like the X in the SpaceX landing pads
[https://www.google.com/search?q=spacex+landing+pad&tbm=isch](https://www.google.com/search?q=spacex+landing+pad&tbm=isch)

~~~
ygra
They also had the drone ship names around the landing circle in the earlier
days. Seems pretty much to be the same point.

------
atdt
Wikipedia article on USA-224:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USA-224](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USA-224)

~~~
credit_guy
“USA-224 - the first of these two - was completed by Lockheed US$ 2 billion
under the initial budget estimate, and two years ahead of schedule”

That’s impressive.

~~~
philjohn
Depends if the initial budget and schedule were accurate, or massively padded.

Under promise, over deliver.

~~~
credit_guy
Sure, but have you ever heard of a procurement project where this happened? At
least to me it seems that you always hear delays and cost overruns of the type
of F35, Zumwalt, Osprey. The usual explanation is that this is the natural
outcome of a cost-plus modus operandi. How can a multi-billion project end up
2 billion below budget and 2 years ahead of schedule. We are talking about the
same manufacturer that brought us the F-35 after all...

~~~
jessaustin
My experience with highway construction is that a lot depends on the highway
inspectors (who are employed by the highway department, not by the firm doing
the construction). If they're lazy the highway will seem fine on day one, but
will be quite rough within a year. If they're diligent it will remain smooth
for a long time.

So, it seems possible that the military bureaucracy doesn't do a very good job
of supervising the work done by armaments manufacturers, while the spy-
satellite bureaucracy does an admirable job. I'm surprised!

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nichol4s
Well done! It would be interesting to look at the angle and length of the
shadow of one of those towers to estimate the time of day the picture has been
taken and verify the hypothesis that the picture has been taken around
09:44UTC

------
skunkworker
Here's a good associated reddit comment analyzing the resolution of the
satellite.

[https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/cxmfjd/president_...](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/cxmfjd/president_trump_tweets_sensitive_surveillance/eymf0w0/)

[https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/cxmfjd/president_...](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/cxmfjd/president_trump_tweets_sensitive_surveillance/eymxym2/)

tldr; potentially 15-20cm resolution taken on this angle. And if it's the
KH-11 (or later advanced kennen/kh-12), it is the first image since 1984
([https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/20/Janeskh1...](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/20/Janeskh11leakedphoto.jpg))

~~~
makomk
It sounds like, from the description of the previous image and non-classified
information about KH-11 such as that released when two surplus satellites were
released to NASA for possible conversion to telescopes, this pretty much just
matches up with what we already knew about its capabilities. If amateur
satellite-watchers hadn't already figured out this was a Keyhole satellite and
tracked its orbit closely this might have given that away and helped Iran
stage their launches to avoid its watchful eyes, but as it is I don't think
any great secrets are being revealed here.

------
krapp
OK. I have what is possibly a dumb question, but why is it even _possible_ to
connect to the open internet, much less send a tweet, from what I assume is
supposed to be a SCIF or some similarly secure room?

Surely the answer can't be that no one ever considered a sitting President
would expose classified intelligence just to shitpost on Iran?

~~~
rdtsc
> but why is it even possible to connect to the open internet, much less send
> a tweet, from what I assume is supposed to be a SCIF or some similarly
> secure room?

Just curious, how do you know this was tweeted from a SCIF?

~~~
krapp
I don't actually _know_ , I just assume any classified briefing like this has
to take place in a SCIF or someplace at least shielded from RF leakage. I may
be naive, though.

~~~
bb88
I'm not sure this is true. As the president is the original authority for
classified information, he can probably ask for classified briefings in non
classified areas or terminals.

------
everybodyknows
More, including technical history of Iran's satellite program:

[https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-
military/2019/08/31/...](https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-
military/2019/08/31/mysterious-iran-rocket-blast-draws-trump-tweet-tehran-
response/)

------
alins
Lucky for them the satellite (Nahid-1) was not loaded at the time of the
incident (which likely happened during fueling), and is in a lab ready for
another launch.

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joering2
I’m actually all for it. I don’t think it would be a big deal if unarmed
Iranian drones are flying above US airspace zone or above the orbit high
enough to consider it being outside of what atmosphere is considered. I mean
US drones fly above Afgqnistan skies all the time and they are even armed, so
I don’t see a problem so long as its done on some common agreed rules.

~~~
adestefan
For everyone down voting this framework already exists as the Treaty on Open
Skies. It was finalized in 1989, but started as a mutual agreement between
NATO and the USSR.

~~~
spamuel
Yeah, it appears that Iran is the country not wanting in on this one. Go
figure.

------
chvid
What’s the deal here? Is this a case of US high tech sabotage (like the famous
stuxnet) and Trump making a joke about it on Twitter?

~~~
rocqua
The fact that this reveals something about the optical surveillance
capabilities of the US. And notably, the fact that a sitting president is
sharing this (sensitive) information on twitter for apparently non-strategic
goals.

------
tyingq
The shadow Trump and his cellphone are casting on the image is the best part.
Guess nobody had the balls to tell him pictures aren't allowed in a briefing
of this nature?

~~~
anonu
The top left portion of the image is redacted. Which suggests it was cleared
for publishing.

Lots of people saying this was not a good move by the USA to publish this
image. But why? Yes, it's a fascinating image. But these high resolution
capabilities are pretty well known and expected...

~~~
rocqua
I think it is mostly people jumping on the bandwagon of 'trump bad'. That is,
the news here is not the secret info revealed, but that trump revealed secret
info.

~~~
krapp
Why do you think it isn't a problem that Trump revealed secret info?

~~~
rocqua
I do think that Trump is a problem. His treatment of classified material is a
good indicator of that. It's just that, in this case, the classified material
is not very revealing.

I do think people are exaggerating how bad this leak is to make it worse that
Trump leaked it.

And really, we should not be blowing Trump mistakes up. Because when he really
does do something horrible, we need the other side with us. If we keep blowing
things out of proportion, the other side will just be pushed into immediately
dismissing us every time.

~~~
krapp
>It's just that, in this case, the classified material is not very revealing.

It reveals that we were monitoring the launch, either by violating Iranian
airspace with a drone, or with a satellite whose optical capabilities appear
to be worthy of discussion.

It also reveals the likely position and identity of that satellite, which
reveals likely other candidates for American spy satellites.

>I do think people are exaggerating how bad this leak is to make it worse that
Trump leaked it.

The fact that he _tweeted slides from a classified intelligence briefing_ is
_already very bad._ The fact that his justification amounts to "I had the
right to, so I did" is very bad. It shouldn't even matter whether the material
leaked is "revealing." Do you think Trump actually cares?

FFS, people wanted Hillary Clinton sent to the electric chair for treason for
_far less._

>If we keep blowing things out of proportion, the other side will just be
pushed into immediately dismissing us every time.

The other side is composed of people like yourself willing to dismiss any
degree of outrage or anger at Trump as simply "jumping on the bandwagon of
'trump bad'." They already immediately dismiss us every time.

But... and I say this irrespective politics... Trump _is bad._

That's not liberal or Democratic sour grapes, or panic from the deep state or
leftist media establishment desperate to stop Trump from disrupting the status
quo, that's not jumping on a bandwagon because he's politically incorrect and
the country is full of SJWs clutching their pearls at the sight of a man who
tells it like it is. It's literal, documented, established, objective truth at
this point. Donald Trump is not a good person. He's not a good Republican.
He's not a good Conservative. He's not a good President.

Even if you support his populist agenda, wear a MAGA hat with pride, and would
bring your own hammer to build the damned wall yourself if you could, it
should be obvious at this point that continuing to support Trump is a fool's
errand. Anyone still drinking the Trump Kool-Aid has clearly gotten to the
poison and it's eaten their brains away.

~~~
nradov
The position and identity of all satellites is already public knowledge. It's
impossible to hide for long in orbit. It's the satellite _capabilities_ that
are classified.

~~~
krapp
>It's the satellite capabilities that are classified.

Welp... now the world knows the satellite's capabilities and that said
satellite was probably USA-244[0].

[0][https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USA-224](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USA-224)

~~~
makomk
All the amateur satellite watchers have known that this is USA-224 and that
it's a Keyhole imaging satellite pretty much since it launched, along with its
exact orbit and a good idea of its imaging capabilities. That's how everyone
managed to figure out how this was taken so quickly. Officially this is all
highly classified, but in reality it's been public knowledge for quite a
while.

