
Tour de France: Estimating the Probability of Doping as a Function of Power - braythwayt
http://veloclinic.com/estimating-the-probability-of-doping-as-a-function-of-power/
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firebones
One thing I don't like from the start in this analysis is the assumption of a
Gaussian distribution for power. If you're riding in the Tour de France,
you're in the tail of a distribution of power generation of the human race. To
assume it falls off symmetrically balanced in each direction from the mean of
qualifying riders is wrong. The cutoff to even be able to ride in the Tour is
far to the right on a Gaussian curve.

I'm not saying there isn't a way to model what the poster is talking about,
but I don't think this is it.

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ablation
Indeed. While the peloton is undoubtedly not clean, I'm very, very sceptical
of this kind of power analysis and modelling by armchair experts.

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meatysnapper
Everybody is doping and has not stopped. The numbers guys are doing up big
climbs do not lie. This goes for every sport.

In cycling, look at what the Brits have been doing the past few years- they
look like zombies, but they stay healthy and can put out superhuman power.
Revolutionary stuff!

Re Lance: Everybody was. Lance was just an exceptional asshole who ruined
other people's careers and was widely disliked. Contador, Nibali, Wiggins...
not huge assholes. Liars, yes, but not assholes.

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braythwayt
Astana and Sky are ridiculously good. They go to the front of the peloton and
start putting out the power, and the other teams are shattered. One by one the
domestiques drop off like flies until the leaders from the other teams are
isolated.

Astana have had a series of embarrassing drug busts, and were supposed to be
dropped from World Tour status as punishment, but they bought their way back
in. Sky alone manages to remain untainted by drug busts.

Presumably, their “incremental gains” are as good as everyone else’s nighttime
EPO micro-dosing out of pig’s bladders.

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rurban
Sky most likely has similar protection as the US team had in the last decade.

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zw123456
Maybe a bit OT here but... The thing I always wondered about what the
probability that Lance Armstrong was the only one doping. I know some others
have been caught but it did seem to me like there was a second agenda there.

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_mgr
Literally everyone in professional cycling at that level was taking PEDs.
Think of it in the same way everyone knew the NSA was spying on us. When proof
came to light we all just shrugged our shoulders.

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jon-wood
Can we have an equivalent of Godwin's Law for the NSA please?

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bootload
a good follow-up read, _" The Power of the Tour de France 2013: Performance
analysis groundwork"_ ~ [http://sportsscientists.com/2013/07/the-power-of-the-
tour-de...](http://sportsscientists.com/2013/07/the-power-of-the-tour-de-
france-performance-analysis-groundwork/)

