
The European Union Is Facing Its Worst Recession Ever. Watch Out, World - elsewhen
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/06/business/coronavirus-europe-reopening-recession.html
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littlestymaar
I don't really understand all the fear around “the current recession”: so far
the countries have been locked down, which means almost freezing the economies
for 2 month (in France, more than half of the private sector employees were
idle, and paid by the government to stay home). Indeed as a result the
12-month GDP including this period is lower, but that doesn't really mean
anything: it's just what you get when you average a normal period with a
frozen one.

Of course I'am worried about what's next, because when we are reopening not
everything will reopened (tourism, restaurants, and many things are going to
stay closed for a looong time) and then we will see long-term damage. But the
current figures just sounds like a calculation artifact to me.

Edit: in fact, I'm even worried that the fear around the “artificial
recession” is going to create a real one: many countries are currently
reopening because they are afraid of the recession, but it's way too early so
they won't reopen completely and they may even face a “second wave” which
could probably have been avoided if the lockdown was sustained enough to
eradicate the disease in the country.

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pjmlp
Everyone that isn't able to work from home, and lives on the edge of their
economies really understands it.

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littlestymaar
In the US I guess, but in France and AFAIK in most Europe, people are being
paid even when they can't work (not 100% of their salaries, but it's still 3/4
of it here in France + benefits for the lower incomes).

I this kind of crisis, what's remain of the welfare state is immensely
valuable, too bad many American citizens have been brainwashed by cold war
propaganda and consider this as socialism…

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grandmczeb
Unemployment in the US is currently $600/week, which incidentally is almost
exactly the median household income in France. On top of that there’s also
state benefits (up to $450/week in California).

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evgen
And how much of that is going to be spent on COBRA payments to continue your
health insurance so you don’t become homeless if you happen to get hit with
covid-19?

~~~
grandmczeb
Depending on your situation, you can get a heavily subsidized plan through the
healthcare marketplace (e.g. a bronze Kaiser HMO is ~$300/month for two 55
year olds making 70k) or Medi-Cal, which is free.

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downerending
Suspect they'll be in good company.

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CryptoPunk
Every percentage drop in per capita GDP is associated with a loss in life
expectancy.

The response to the coronavirus pandemic, of mandatory lockdowns of nearly the
entire population, for several weeks, may prove to be one of the most
egregious cases of self-inflicted social harm the world has ever seen.

~~~
tonyedgecombe
It's hard to see any other course of action when we saw what was happening in
Northern Italy. In fact if anything I would say most Western countries didn't
lock down early or hard enough.

Countries that ease the lockdown before they have a handle on the virus are in
for a lot of pain further down the road. Probably more economic damage as
well.

~~~
LastZactionHero
As an example, 9 million people die each year due to hunger or hunger-related
issues, many of them children. 135 million face food insecurity. Due to
lockdowns and recession, the World Food Program estimates the toll will
_double_ this year. And hunger is just _one_ cause of death that a recession
can lead to (suicides, substance abuse, etc).

Lockdowns might save lives, and I can't blame public health officials for
protecting their community, but I personally fear more lives will be lost due
to economic costs. They just might be poorer, quieter lives. And while death
is, of course, final, suffering in life should count for something too.

[https://www.wfp.org/news/covid-19-will-double-number-
people-...](https://www.wfp.org/news/covid-19-will-double-number-people-
facing-food-crises-unless-swift-action-taken)

~~~
dragonwriter
> Lockdowns might save lives, and I can't blame public health officials for
> protecting their community, but I personally fear more lives will be lost
> due to economic costs. They just might be poorer, quieter lives.

That's a real issue in the developing world; in the developed world the
resources exist to buffer the temporary additional low-end economic impact;
not doing so effectively is a policy choice (and, in practice, a deliberate
active one made when the alternative of providing the aid is presented), not
an inherent corollary of lockdowns.

~~~
LastZactionHero
> That's a real issue in the developing world; in the developed world the
> resources exist to buffer the temporary additional low-end economic impact

That seems like a pretty sterile way to describe it.

Right now, in the (presumably) developed US, 1 in 5 children don't have enough
food, 3x the amount during 2008. That's a result of years of policy choices,
but one particularly policy choice caused it to spike. If there's a resource
buffer, it's not buffering.

[https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/05/06/the-
covid...](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/05/06/the-
covid-19-crisis-has-already-left-too-many-children-hungry-in-america/)

~~~
dragonwriter
> Right now, in the (presumably) developed US, 1 in 5 children don't have
> enough food, 3x the amount during 2008. That's a result of years of policy
> choices, but one particularly policy choice caused it to spike.

Yes, the policy choice not provide the kind of mass aid (whether directly to
citizens or through firms in a way which reasons the mass of the citizenry to
protect empmoyment and pay) to the population that pretty much every other
industrialized country facing this crisis has, even the ones (like Sweden)
without mandatory lockdowns.

The US federal response to COVID-19, both in narrow public health measures and
broader, including economic policy, measures (and structurally much of this
has to be done at the federal level because of the way state and federal
financing works) has been nothing short of mass murder by depraved
indifference.

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notechback
Original report and PR:

[https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_...](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_799)

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zaro
And the rest of the world not?

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aaron695
How about we call it what it is, a Depression.

And let people make the argument if "it's just a Recession Bro"

What time line do people expect for this to be "just a Recession"?

When do people expect business to stop being legally stopped from opening and
people wanting to use them across the world. So when will all borders reopen
for instance? Vaccines _might_ be 2 years. So this is the best case, the world
let's C19 run it's natural course.

Then after that, we will have to pull out of a global financial slump.

We have both a lack of financial confidence combined with a fear of a virus to
deal with.

