
America's window of opportunity to beat back Covid-19 is closing - aaronbrethorst
https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/10/winter-is-coming-as-flu-season-nears-americas-window-of-opportunity-to-beat-back-covid-19-is-narrowing/
======
NoOneNew
Look, 1 death is 1 too many. But let's step back for a moment from this "The
world is ending" dialogue.

Global deaths as of 08/10 according to the John Hopkins' tracker is at 732k.
It hasn't been a year yet, but lets say the world will be at 1.4mil by New
Years Eve. Double the current at a 9ish month rate to a 12 month rate. Just
for worst case scenario giggles.

That puts it roughly even with worldwide road injuries and under diabetes. A
bit more than the amount of people dying from diarrhea. I said it in another
post, 9+ million people die from heart disease due mostly from really poor
diets and lifestyles (the fat, lazy kind more than the malnourished kind). And
no one cared about any of those. If you're going to cry about the world is
going to end, don't you think those would red flag for that sentiment first?

[https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-
top-10-...](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-
top-10-causes-of-death)

[https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/topics/causes-of-
de...](https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/topics/causes-of-
death/GHO/causes-of-death)

Modern medicine is fucking awesome. This could have been a death sentence for
a hell of a lot more people. More people died in others pandemics and the
world kept spinning. Let's keep that in mind. Hell, the sheer fact we have
germ theory has fucking saved more lives than we can ever imagine. Yea, things
are bad, but they're no where near as bad as they could be. If folks in
history could see how we're emotionally reacting to our situation right now,
they'd laugh.

Yes, don't be stupid, cough into your elbow, wash your damn hands (it scares
me how many people did not wash their hands on a regular basis and admitted to
that before all of this) but stop crying and pretending the world is going to
end. That mentality doesn't help at all and you're equally the problem if you
toot around "The end is near" like a hobo on the side of the road with a
cardboard sign.

~~~
greedo
Simple math. Herd immunity requiring 50%. World population 7.6B. So 3.8B
infections. Hospitalization rate is roughly 10%, so 380M hospitalizations. IFR
is roughly 1%, so 38M fatalities.

So again, 3.8B infections, 380M hospitalizations, and 38M fatalities. Even
assuming a magnitude of error, we're still looking at 38M hospitalizations and
3.8M deaths.

Michael Osterholm had a really good analogy into COVID. We're wrong to thing
of it in waves; it's more like wildfire. Where it finds fuel, it will burn
until the fuel is gone.

~~~
nradov
It's a little more complex than that. The herd immunity threshold estimates
have assumed that everyone is equally susceptible. However the reality appears
to be that some people have at least partial immunity, perhaps based on
genetics or prior exposure to similar viruses. This is an active area of
research, and for now the level and extent of population immunity remains an
unknown variable.

The best estimate from the CDC indicates an IFR of 0.65% in the US. That's a
major difference from 1%.

[https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-
scena...](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-
scenarios.html)

A recent sero-prevalance study in Mumbai found that 57% of people in the slums
had antibodies, which would put those areas close to the theoretical herd
immunity threshold. Despite limited access to advanced healthcare there the
IFR was under 0.10%, although it's possible that some deaths weren't
accurately recorded.

[https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/57-sero-prevalence-in-
sl...](https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/57-sero-prevalence-in-slums-16-in-
non-slums-in-mumbai-says-survey-of-3-wards-6475141.htm)

~~~
greedo
A change from an IFR of 1% to 0.65% would still mean 25M fatalities. And
that's a CDC IFR from a country with vast, vast resources. As this circles the
globe looking for firewood, it's going to burn a long time.

I'm extremely skeptical of the link you provided. Small sample size and
there's no other supported data to indicate an IFR in line with influenza.

------
nradov
Realistically the window of opportunity already closed back in March. At this
point community transmission is so widespread that to actually "beat back
Covid-19" would take a long, strict lockdown (very few "essential" workers),
extensive testing and contract tracing, and closing the borders. Even if those
steps might leave us better off in the long run, they are simply no longer
politically feasible. Wishes won't change that reality.

------
jb775
According to the WHO, the virus shows no signs of seasonal patterns[1]. This
means that the spread and transmission of the virus doesn't change depending
on the time of year. So which organization is wrong?

Also, I've seen many posts claiming something like: "Study shows recent
protests with 300,000 ppl hanging off each other didn't cause spread of
coronavirus". If you believe this (and I actually do btw), why do you think it
will spread so easily in public, where basically everyone is wearing a mask
and bathing themselves in hand sanitizer?

Not trying to incite an argument, I'm asking real questions that I feel people
aren't asking themselves because it intersects with other aspects of their
beliefs.

[1] - [https://m.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-covid-19-shows-no-
sea...](https://m.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-covid-19-shows-no-seasonal-
pattern-warns-who/a-54506443)

~~~
mynegation
In the first few line of TFA they mention not the seasonal pattern but the
fact that it is going to be more difficult to find COVID cases in the
background of flu and common cold that do have a seasonal pattern.

~~~
jb775
So why is this article framed as a doom & gloom coronavirus article if the
only thing they're trying to communicate is "it's gonna be hard to pick out
the corona patients"?

------
ForHackernews
There is no opportunity.

The Trump administration has already decided to surrender to this pandemic.
They're just betting that enough voters in key swing states are on board with
their alternative reality that they won't notice or care about their
grandparents and elderly neighbours dying.

~~~
isoprophlex
Covid has been the ultimate confirmation: we're in the post-truth age.

Lets hope we'll be able to look back on this period in history, and evolve to
be better than this.

~~~
magicsmoke
The dark side of this is that evolution works by culling the unfit to survive.
Might want to choose another term (or maybe that's exactly what you intended)

~~~
technothrasher
_evolution works by culling the unfit to survive_

No it doesn't. Evolution occurs due to change in allele frequency in a
population over time. Relative death rate of certain organisms in a given
environment is certainly a mechanism for this change in frequency, but it is
not necessary for evolution to occur.

~~~
arcticbull
Either (a) death of the unfit or (b) inability of the unfit to reproduce are
the core drivers of evolution. They're the negative feedback.

[edit] Rather, not the core drivers but the core direction-setters.

------
arcticbull
What I find so crazy about America's response is that it's been totally all
over the place with half-measures. America shut down 50% of the economy
instead of 90% like European countries -- enough to devastate the economy, but
leave COVID unscathed. Then, many people started to go outside anyways, giving
COVID more gas, which then triggered them to go back into the 50% lockdown
state that wasn't doing anything anyways.

This meant the end result was a devastated economy AND full-on COVID, worse
than anywhere on Earth other than Brazil.

You can make a case for a full-on economic shutdown, like the Europeans,
Australians, New Zealanders and even to a lesser extent Canadians. It seemed
to work out there.

You can make a case for leaving the economy open like Sweden did, knowing
they'd potentially have to pay a penalty in lives greater than countries that
got a vaccine before everyone caught it -- and they are down to zero deaths
now too. Sweden didn't shut down and COVID is done for them now. A total of
6,000 deaths for a population of 10,000,000.

But what you can't make a case for is HALF shutting down the economy -- not
enough to let people make money, and not enough to stop the virus, and not
really paying people enough to stay home, but somehow more than they were
making anyways. That's literally the worst of all worlds. Devastated economy.
Many dead people. It's a global embarrassment.

~~~
greedo
Saying that for Sweden "Covid is done for them now" is extremely disingenuous.
They have an incredible high CFR, and are averaging 400 new cases a day, with
72K still infected.

~~~
arcticbull
And roughly zero deaths in the last 3 weeks, and low double digit new cases
daily.

~~~
greedo
How is 400 average cases per day "low double digit"?

~~~
arcticbull
I was off in my math however, I'm seeing 250/day since 8/1 [1]. Yeah, I do
consider that to be negligible, since it's going down or staying flat, not
moving up, and the death rate remains zero.

[1]
[https://www.coronatracker.com/country/sweden/](https://www.coronatracker.com/country/sweden/)

~~~
greedo
There have been 23 deaths so far this month, a death rate of 2.3/day. Which
aligns CFR of 10%. And I'm sure the families of the dying consider all of this
"negligible."

I'm sure you'll come back with more "stats" that you misinterpret or perform
bad maths on. Normally I don't engage in ad-hominem, but your entire comment
history on COVID has been one of denial/dismissal/diminishment that one can't
help to assume you're commenting in bad faith.

[https://studylib.net/coronavirus#country-
se](https://studylib.net/coronavirus#country-se)

~~~
arcticbull
We disagree on a few key points.

1\. I don’t believe CFR is at all a useful metric. It’s not comparable across
countries or across time. What is it capturing? If Sweden isn’t testing anyone
who isn’t deathly ill of course it has a 10% CFR. If Singapore tests everyone
of course it has a 0.05% CFR (both numbers from your link). Same disease,
equally fatal in both places, yet you’re looking at a metric with a range of 3
orders of magnitude. If at this point those numbers haven’t started converging
worldwide it’s a bad metric.

2\. Of course how the disease affects families matters. The conversation isn’t
about that, though. Public health decisions impact people one way or the
other. People die one way or the other. The goal is to minimize deaths and
suffering. This is the kind of thinking that prevents prison reform: “but what
if we let someone out and they hurt someone else! Let’s just lock them up
forever instead, problem solved.”

3\. 1-2 deaths per day in a country of 10,000,000 is not a lot. By any
measure. It will never be zero. 1-2 deaths per day is similar to their road
fatalities (200-400 per year). It’s in line with their flu fatalities (500 per
year).

If 1-2 daily flu and 1-2 daily road fatalities don’t represent a catastrophe,
why does this?

4\. 200 cases per day in a country of 10,000,000 is not a lot when they’re not
trying to contain it. Like CFR though it’s not a useful metric for comparison
across countries because it doesn’t factor in testing methodology. I cite this
metric at all because of it’s pronounced exponential downtrend.

Factual inaccuracies in my posts preceding are my having looked at a graph
wrong, or a poor graph, not bad faith.

Yes, I think it's a serious disease. Yes, I wear a mask whenever I'm outside.
Yes, I think masking should be mandatory. Yes, I'll take the vaccine when it's
available. I do also think there's been an awful lot of sensationalism at
play.

------
D13Fd
I'm not sure sure this is right.

First, the "outdoor activities" seem to be a big part of the problem right
now. People hanging out at the beach, the playgrounds, the parks, eating in
groups in outdoor seating at restaurants, protesting, etc. all accelerate the
spread.

It may well turn out that people doing fewer of those things means that we
don't have a heavy second wave in the fall. I hope that's the case.

Second, the window isn't "closing," it's pretty much slammed shut. The genie
is out of the bottle for the U.S. and likely the planet. We're in the ballpark
of 50k diagnosed cases per day, plus between twice and ten times that number
of undiagnosed cases, if not more.

Contact tracing 50k cases a day would be a massive undertaking, and we'd still
be doing nothing about the 50k+ undiagnosed cases out there, most of which
represent people who are still spreading the virus.

The political will for additional lockdowns and preventative measures is all
but spent.

I hate to say it, but absent a very effective vaccine, COVID-19 is most likely
here to stay.

~~~
arcticbull
I don't know why people keep talking about this "second wave" in America.
Countries that have a second wave have one because they _ended the first wave_
and are on the look out for more. America has not ended the first wave, at
all. There can't be a second if the first is still here.

~~~
dtwest
There was a big acceleration of cases in March (largely in NYC), and a second,
even bigger acceleration (mostly in the Southern and Western regions) in June.
Your point is valid, but there were two large increases in new cases that some
people are calling waves, what would you prefer they be called?

~~~
mikem170
I would assume a "second wave" means that it has crested in the same place
twice. as opposed to calling Wuhan the first wave, Iran the second, Italy the
third, Spain the fourth, NYC the fifth, and so on.

If NYC is bad again I'd call that a second wave. Florida is 1500 miles away
and is experiencing their first wave, some time after NYC had theirs.

The optimist in me has noticed that no locality experiencing a bad first wave
has had a second wave yet. Perhaps that is a sign of herd immunity (helped by
T-cells, if so). Time will tell...

