
Ask HN: What special offers do you see on the stock market right now? - wsieroci
Hi,<p>regarding coronavirus stocks declines, what special offers do you see on the stock market right now?<p>Cheers,
Wiktor
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nknealk
Many cruise lines are trading below the book value of equity. Carnival is one
example.

Oil probably won’t stay at $30ish/barrel for long. High quality oil companies
aren’t likely to go bankrupt (eg. Exxon, Valero, Chevron).

Senior assisted living REITs are in the gutter. VTR comes to mind.

However, if you’re thinking of investing I strongly recommend a broad-market
ETF. VOO for the S&P 500 or VTI to go even more broad are good bets.

~~~
neural_thing
Ahem. The same Carnival that has a quick ratio of about 0.2 and whose revenues
are going to decline by 90%? Hard pass. It's equity value is all in cruise
ships. Can you imagine those selling at anything close to par right now?

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kls
I shorted Royal Caribbean on the way down and am now buying shares. I figure
most of the impact is priced in, I am a long hold on them now and we will see
where it shakes out when it is all over. They have an extremely loyal customer
base.

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anonu
There's no free lunch.

Anyone with valuable stock tips will not share them here.

I will share one piece of investing advice though. Good fund managers - on
average - make their money on good sector selection and not so much on good
stock selection.

Other special offers: Free trading on every major brokerage platform. That's a
fundamental shift from just a year ago...

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throw51319
BTC is going to go up as an anti-inflationary store of value after the US
announces massive cash being injected at all angles into the system. Once this
virus passes in 18 months, there will be a ton more money and not a lot more
assets. Yet BTC will stay steady. So BTC/$ will go up.

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jumbopapa
just buy VTI. No use in speculating when VTI alone will go buy 50% to reach
the previous highs.

~~~
hak8or
You might as well go for vt at that point. It's the total global market. The
USA is a massive portion of this anways, so it's just extra diversification.

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rwmurrayVT
USO long dated calls. It's $1.76 a share for $5 strike price on Jan 2022.
That's a 36% increase from the current share price of $4.99. The 52 week high
is $13.86. I can't imagine the current oil war will continue for another 2
years.

~~~
anonu
You may be missing the forest for the trees. The oil market has fundamentally
shifted in the last decade. The US is energy independent with its massive oil
projects and unfettered access to fracking and tar sands and what not. Don't
catch a falling knife.

Case in point: Look at natural gas. We've been in a gas glut for a decade
plus+
([https://pages.etflogic.io/?ticker=UNG](https://pages.etflogic.io/?ticker=UNG)
for example,
[https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=m1](https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=m1)
). Big infrastructure builds and special cryo tanks are everywhere. Gas has
never recovered from its 2008 peak... The same has played out and is playing
out in crude.

~~~
rwmurrayVT
You're right. The market has shifted in the last decade. That's why USO
dropped from 60-100 before 2008, stayed around 40 until 2015, and then
maintained 10-13 ever since. There's no way it won't rebound slightly when
this ends.

If you're risk adverse the $2 calls Jan 21st, 2022 are $3.35. Required move to
break even is 9.91%. It dropped 50% MTD. I don't need a full recovery, just a
minimum of 10% over the next 2 years.

~~~
anonu
> just a minimum of 10% over the next 2 years.

Misleading... Sure breakeven is 10% if you assume all-else-equal. Your path to
profitability is path dependent. If it moved 10% tomorrow, you would probably
be hard-pressed to make any money considering spreads and other trading costs.
You really need a bigger move to breakeven in a short amount of time.

~~~
rwmurrayVT
That's not correct, nor misleading. The breakeven point would need to be met
on the day of expiration. If it shot up 10% tomorrow I would be profitable.
I'd still have the value associated with theta less volatility.

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Havoc
Give it another two three weeks at least

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lm28469
They wouldn't be "special" if they were discussed on public forums.

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Max-20
TBH thats bollocks as well as the frequent platitude that 'Its already priced
in..' or that the professional investors are so sophisticated that normal
people don‘t have a chance so why bother

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lm28469
A working strategy stops working the day everyone applies it. It's not that
you don't have a chance, simply don't expect people to tell you what to do.

~~~
marketgod
That's not really true. Mine has been working and I have been posting my
trades for people. What's funny is as the number of people following the trade
grows, the odds of the trade hitting has been going up since.

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quickthrower2
Star casino on the asx

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smarri
Why?

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wsieroci
To buy?

~~~
smarri
Best of luck.

