
Why I’m scared of the post-PC era. - hunterowens
http://sahillavingia.com/blog/why-im-scared-of-the-post-pc-era/
======
ary
In the presence of each and every person living in an industrialized society
are multiple devices running embedded software that is difficult to modify.
Those devices are programmed using more flexible systems which to this very
second are programmable any way you like. Where is the outrage over the hacker
unfriendliness of my refrigerator? The iPad, iPhone, Android, and comparable
devices are a hybrid of PC-like and embedded systems. The tradeoffs were made
for reasons outside of anyone's programming/hacking needs. Should you want
jailbreak a locked down device much of the work has already been done for you.

A hacker's "freedom" to poke around in the system has been traded for the
freedom of an average person to use the damn thing without worry. This
argument about post-PC devices and whether or not they're good for hackers is
_tired_. Be thankful that powerful, accessible devices are being put in the
hands of _millions_ of enthusiastic people that you have a chance to influence
and affect through software and services.

Finally, let's address the specter of censorship. This is brilliantly simple
(in the United States at least). Address the entity censoring you. If it's a
private entity then accept that they have no legal, ethical, or moral
obligation to give you any access to their customers (much less complete
access). Roll up your sleeves and compete. Should you be dealing with
government censorship then pursue justice in whatever way your heart guides
you.

But _please_ stop whining.

~~~
joebadmo
Personally I'd like it if I _could_ hack my fridge. And my thermostat. And my
dishwasher.

But those actually aren't as important as a computer because I don't use them
to make things.

I don't dismiss the power of giving access to information consumption devices
to the masses. But I would prefer if we could put the means of _production_
into their hands as well. So I agree to some degree with the author.

As for censorship, everything you say is true. It doesn't make fears of
censorship unfounded. The iPad has close to 100% marketshare for tablets. And
Apple actively censors its sole means of app distribution. That's a lot of
power for a private company to hold. Not illegal or immoral, but scary.

I think a future in which everyone chooses to live in Disneyland is kind of
scary, even if I can continue to choose not to live there. And the way to
fight it is to convince people that there are alternative visions of the
future. And that's how I read this post.

 _But please stop whining._ <\- This sounds more like whining to me than the
post did.

~~~
andrewflnr
I like this a lot. Just one thing:

    
    
      Not illegal or immoral, but scary.
    

I would go further. Illegality and immorality are very different. I think
people have a moral responsibility to use their power well, or at least not
abuse it, regardless of what the law requires of them. Using the law to
enforce this kind of morality is dangerous, but it still stands.

------
icandoitbetter
There's a surprising amount of belief in historical determinism in the
discussion here, which is utterly unjustified. It is easy to believe that the
future will fix itself on its own. But such beliefs are mostly the result of
not being able to imagine alternative histories in which things don't get to
be so rosy.

The truth is that so many things in the history of computing were improbable,
and made possible by a select few very strong-willed individuals. Personal
computing was improbable. The dominance of open source was improbable. etc.

It's up to us to ensure that the post-PC era won't be the era of walled
gardens, which is definitely where it's headed. And that would be perfectly
fine, if our walled gardens weren't so darn suboptimal.

<http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=3335>

~~~
gbog
Your last sentence is obscure to me, or revert what you say before.

------
nbashaw
True, our kids won't grow up hacking the same systems we did, just like we
didn't grow up hacking the same systems as our parents. But there is something
basic to the human spirit that guarantees as long as this branch of the gene
pool is still around, we'll still tinker and build and create. It's just that
the blocks are constantly changing. Which keeps things interesting, and is a
good thing.

~~~
lucasjake
Exactly. The end of the PC era doesn't give rise to the 'iPad era,' it gives
rise to Ubiquitous computing, and Apple knows this.

The trajectory goes: mainframe: one computer, many people personal computer:
one computer, one person ubiquitous computing: many computers to many people

If anything, people are going to be programming the shit out of everything in
the future, not pulling back.

~~~
5hoom
Agreed 100%.

Someone, somewhere will have to program all these wonderful gadgets.

While it is conceivable that all development will occur only inside big mega-
corps, I somehow doubt it. People have a voracious appetite for new content.

Smart money is on the tools to create new stuff becoming more widespread, not
less.

------
neild
My first computer booted into a BASIC interpreter. That was pretty awesome,
and gave me an early window into programming. On the other hand, it didn't
have a lot of things. It didn't have a text editor. It didn't have anything
other than a BASIC interpreter. I knew that the games I played on that machine
weren't written in BASIC, but I didn't know where to go to learn how they were
made.

My current computer, made by Apple, comes with interpreters for several
languages, all more powerful than BASIC. It comes with text editors. And, best
of all, it comes connected to an Internet from which I can not only download
interpreters and compilers for all sorts of languages, but find extensive
documentation on how to use them.

A child today has access to so much more in the way of programming tools than
I did. We live in a glorious golden age of hobbyist programming.

~~~
joebadmo
I think the author's point is that the post-PC era implies that the golden age
you're describing is dying, replaced with a clean future, wherein people don't
have computers with text editors and that can run interpreters and compilers
etc.

The children of the post-PC future will only have access to iPads. Or Kindle
Fires, as pure a consumption device as I can imagine.

~~~
neild
_The children of the post-PC future will only have access to iPads. Or Kindle
Fires, as pure a consumption device as I can imagine._

Why would you think that would happen?

And while I'm at it, why is "consumption device" an insult? _Books_ are
consumption devices. Nobody sneers at a child with a book.

~~~
joebadmo
Sorry, that part was hyperbolic. But it's true that what the author is
describing is the end of precisely the golden age you desribe. To whatever
degree consumption devices replace production devices, there will be less
exposure to them.

It's not an insult. But consumption devices are lamentable as far as they
replace production devices. I love books, and I don't sneer at children who
read them. But I would like all children to have access and exposure to
writing tools so they realize that they too make books.

------
mechanical_fish
This guy needs a better metaphor. Imagine a world where Legos didn't exist?
But Legos _do_ exist. It has probably never been easier to be a Lego hobbyist.

What this guy should do is come up with an _actual_ example of a hobby that
has died out because the parts are no longer available. Used Model-T Fords.
Urban horse infrastructure. Manual typewriters. Dial telephones.

What one realizes is that actual extinct things are only extinct because the
demand is gone. They are still making _vacuum tubes_ somewhere, for god's sake
- audiophiles can have passionate debates about how much better the tubes were
back in 1967, but apart from such quibbling 2011 is still a pretty good time
to build a tube amplifier. There are lots of plans on the Internet!

So I wouldn't count the PC out yet. Aren't they just about to release a tiny
PC for $25? It has _never been cheaper or easier to be a PC electronics
hobbyist_.

~~~
gergles
The point is that the "post-PC era" will make it so that being someone who
thinks that you can modify or change the computing experience is relegated to
"oddball hobby" status, like it would be if someone today wanted to start
playing with vacuum tubes.

The current PC ecosystem lets you explore and create and play and learn on the
same tools that you use to consume. You can build a lego kit with the
instructions, or you can use the pieces and make something that's uniquely
you. You can run the apps on Windows that you download, or you can write your
own without asking for anybody's permission.

In the magical "post-PC" world, where everyone is inexplicably using an iPad,
you can run what Apple says, period, and if you want to develop something they
don't approve of, welp, too bad.

This loss of flexibility, exploration, and sense of wonder is bad for future
computing developments and bad for future computer users.

~~~
rdouble
_The point is that the "post-PC era" will make it so that being someone who
thinks that you can modify or change the computing experience is relegated to
"oddball hobby" status_

It was like that during the pre post-PC era, anyway.

~~~
gbog
Don't agree. I know of many non geeky pc user who learnt to sysadmin their
machine and a lan in order to play CS.

------
xarien
Let me preface this by stating that much I'm about to post, I've learned from
my 18 month old boy.

Aside from the sentimentality of a parent watching his kid develop physical
and mental abilities, it's a very interesting phenomenon watching the way the
development occurs.

Kids basically learn one of two ways: imitation and exploration. Imitation
being quite simple, so I'll move right on the exploration. Now, there's
recently been a lot of discussion whether kids in America are being hampered
by overprotective parents. I believe that notion is quite correct.

My son has legos, but he also has access to my touchpad and android phone. To
him, they're not so different. Legos teach him that he can piece them together
to make new things or break them apart for the components (creativity). The
electronics teach him that there is a logical action and reaction (logic).

It's absolutely amazing the first time I saw his eyes light up because he
figured out how to wake the device from sleep or how to unlock it. It's a
physical indication that a neural connection has been made in his head. To me,
that indicates these types of tools will indeed facilitate a much earlier
exposure to logic we have not seen in previous generations.

So to come full circle, I don't think the death of legos (I don't really
foresee it happening) will hamper our kids because there will be other
mediums. As long as we don't hamper exploration, kids will develop both
creativity and logic.

~~~
gbog
This. When my kid will be big enough I'll buy him toys he can break, like
Legos, later I'll buy him gadgets he can break, like PCs, open garden tablets.
If it results in him having to fiddle the os in order to bypass the antiporn
barrier I'll setup, it will be all for the best.

------
comex
There are multiple BASIC and Scheme interpreters in the App Store, as well as
apps for writing HTML documents. If you want to write proper apps, an iOS
developer certificate costs money, but so did Visual Basic back in the day,
and on Android or a jailbroken iPhone it's free.

Post-PC devices _are_ inherently bad for programming because they don't have
proper keyboards, but by the same token you'll likely have access to a
keyboarded computer to do homework on, at least until someone invents a new
input method that's better for both. (Nuance dictation for code, anyone?)

~~~
randomdata
_Post-PC devices are inherently bad for programming because they don't have
proper keyboards_

I went on a road trip this summer and continued to do some programming while
on it. I found the iPad to be more comfortable than my laptop when sitting in
the passenger seat.

A keyboard is pretty hard to beat when you've got a desk in front of you, but
when you are left in weird positions, the iPad actually isn't that bad for
editing code.

------
raganwald
The author does sound like a retro-grouch. As I often say to hipsters on
fixies, “For you it’s retro, for me it’s nostalgia.” That being said, the
post-PC era does not mean that nobody has a PC, it means that people don’t
have to buy PCs to do non-PC things. Imagine if you needed a PC to watch
television. It’s the same thing with email, FB, and web browsing. Why do I
want to know how to format a hard drive to read Hacker News?

Steve Jobs described PCs as being like pickup trucks, and he described post-PC
devices as being like all the other vehicles people use, from bicycles to
SUVs. None of those made the pickup truck go away, and for that matter there
is a sizeable market of people who take pride in driving a pickup truck even
though they never haul anything bigger or dirtier than a chest of drawers in
it.

PCs will be the same way. Available and cheap if you need one, and also
available for those just like the status symbol of being a touch guy who
fdisks and bash scripts and thinks curl beats Firefox.

~~~
joebadmo
_the post-PC era does not mean that nobody has a PC, it means that people
don’t have to buy PCs to do non-PC things._

Fewer people needing to buy PCs to do non-PC things means fewer people buying
PCs. Fewer people buying PCs means fewer people exposed to the PC things early
on. Fewer people who are familiar with the things that you use to _make_
things.

Seems reasonably lamentable to me.

~~~
raganwald
This is like telling me that it's lamentable that I can't fix a car. Had I
been forced to spend many waking hours tuning and maintaining my car, I would
have learned something.

Well, I spent those hours programming, and the people who love cars are using
the time saved by their iPad to tinker ith internal combustion engines and
electric vehicles.

~~~
angus77
Who's forcing whom to do anything? Why is having the option to do something
such a bad thing? Windows gives its users plenty of opportunity to tinker.
Most of them don't bother. With the ipad, however, the option itself is taken
away.

------
steve8918
Meh. Unfounded fears. There will always be computers/desktops/laptops. Just
because tablets and smartphones are ubiquitous doesn't mean that they won't
exist.

People will always want huge monitors, and there will always be programmers.
Granted, in 20 years it might not be someone sitting in front of 3 LCD
screens, but it will be something.

~~~
groovy2shoes
Sure, but desktops and laptops are starting to become more and more like
tablets and smartphones. Look at the changes that started in Lion, especially
the Sandboxes. Look at what is in store for us with Windows 8. It seems to me
that if things keep heading in the same direction, laptops will end up just as
locked-down as tablets.

If you think that the market will never let it happen, realize that at least
80% of consumers only really use their computers for the web and/or for games.
What do you use your smartphone for?

------
kristopolous
In 1951 you could have whined, "With the rise of pro-grammable computers, the
Engineer can simply turn his brain off and let the computer do all the work.
The era of craftsmanship has come to a close. No, no need to think dear
friend, we have ourselves a Computer. Aughh!"

Then, in 1961 you could have sighed, "The knowledge of how to maintain a
computer will be gone forever with this increase in reliability. How will
someone ever know truly how computers work unless they have to fix them piece
by piece."

Then, in 1971 you could have pined, "With the rise of these time-share based
operating environments, the future programmer has all the hard things taken
care of for them. All that you need now is a data-bank administrator and
record input clerk. There is no future in computing!"

Then, in 1981 you could have lamented, "Baugh! The rise of these pre-built
micros means that the future generations won't know how to work a logic
analyzer or an oscilloscope. They will never use a soldering gun or know the
joy of assembling a memory board because they will just drop it in the slot.
Ug!"

Then, in 1991 you could have scoffed, "well with all these new fancy
compilers, nobody will appreciate the joys of directly manipulating registers
and stacks. Instead, they will spend their career in higher order abstractions
without ever truly knowing the soul of the machine."

Then, in 2001 you could have cried, "This era of the world wide web is
hastening the decline of single system software and entertainment consumption
is simply supplanting productivity for the largest use case of computing.
Programming has become nothing more then playing Oz in the Emerald City;
pulling pre-built levers as the scarecrows and tin-men of the world marvel on
the sidelines"

~~~
vacri
And if you did, you'd be missing the point. The explosion of computing in the
general public over the past 20 years has seen the explosion of innovation -
"the internet", as an industry, is really only 15 years old. Not even that.
And yet it's innovated and transformed forever our modern societies.

That innovation has been driven by the masses being able to create things on
their computers. Something that potentially restricts the ability to innovate
across the masses shouldn't just be handwaved away like yet another whine.

~~~
GHFigs
_That innovation has been driven by the masses being able to create things on
their computers._

Has it?

~~~
vacri
Where did everything that's on the internet exist before ~1995?

How did you access it?

~~~
GHFigs
I don't understand what you're driving at.

Software represents only a fraction of "everything that's on the Internet",
creators of software only a fraction of creators in general, and creators in
general being only a fraction of "the masses".

~~~
vacri
That there has been so much software written, and content created with that
software, and support structures to supply that content to you (like
networking or ecommerce) indicates that folks have to be able to innovate -
the greater the mass of people that can tinker, the greater the mass of
creators you get.

There was a much higher ratio of creators to users in the computer world in
the 60s. But there wasn't the sheer volume of innovation there has been since
the masses got involved - even though there's a lower ratio of creators, the
absolute number of creators is far higher - hell, we're even on a site that is
designed to do nothing but cater for this influx of creators, and it's getting
one application a minute.

The fewer people that have exposure to tinkering, the lower the number of
innovators overall.

~~~
GHFigs
_Writing software is not the only kind of creation._

~~~
vacri
Yes, and? Pretty much all the 'non-software' stuff you create with some form
of electronic device requires software to make it. If there are fewer software
writers, there are fewer kinds of software, and less non-software-cration
stuff you can do with it.

------
zdw
We already have this era right now. It's called the "Our computer classes are
typing and learning to use MS Office" era.

Nobody really learned how to do anything complex on the computer. CLI's are
scary. Programming is hard.

As a result, most computer users, many of whom are very intelligent people who
would easily be capable of basic programming and understanding unix pipes and
similar are never are exposed to it, and thus it's a foreign language.

Don't blame the iPad. Blame GUI software and the illusion of ease hiding
complexity for where we're at.

------
fleitz
I'm not. Just port a basic interpreter to iPad, or write Logo for iPad. No one
begets the fact that computers come preassembled now and no one needs to learn
how to solder to have a computer. Imagine a basic interpreter that DOESN'T
lose everything you typed in when you turn off your computer.

The opportunities iPad enables far outweighs the cost of having to learn to
program to use your computer. iPad will get more people using computers in
more ways which while reducing the percentage of computer users who can
program will vastly increase the overall number of programmers.

~~~
marbu
I agree that the device offers many opportunities. Nevertheless it's not just
about porting some interpreter, you also have to deal with apple policy which
is not that friendly to such ideas. See for example how Scratch was rejected
last year: <http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2010/04/apple-scratch-app/>.

~~~
william42
Apple doesn't control the Internet, and while HTML5 has its own limitations,
you could still probably port Logo to it, especially since Logo isn't all that
complicated.

------
HappySushiCo
The writer makes the wrong assumption that the current mobile devices (e.g.
iPad) will never have the creation tools that the previous generations of
computer have had. IMHO, it's only a matter of time. And in the same vein it's
never been more accessible to build something better than what's out there and
get it out to the public.

~~~
timwiseman
I think that may be a fairly safe assumption. The very form factor of the Ipad
and tables in their current incarnation makes them poorly suited for _most_
types of content creation.

However, among content producers tablets supplement rather than replace other
form factors of computers for the time being.

Also, docking stations are likely to improve and become more common. A future
tablet which would be more powerful than current generations with a solid
docking station that would support a full keyboard, mouse and second monitor
is a standard computer with the ability to undock it temporarily when not
doing real content creation...

~~~
forgottenpaswrd
"The very form factor of the Ipad and tables in their current incarnation
makes them poorly suited for most types of content creation."

Excuse me?

The Ipad and the tablets are excellent for content creations.

I created a program to analize the spectrum of voice in opengl, and multitouch
is way more natural to manipulating thousands of things at the same
time(realtime zoom, panning and selection). It feels like a highway for your
mind not to be constrained by language(that is so slow).

If you program using blocks it is way faster and easier than using keyboard.

Do you really think that keyboard are so good for content creation, if you
think so you need to look at this:
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Sholes_typewriter.jpg>

...look at the keys and then look at a computer keyboard.

teletypes used typewriter machines because people got used to it, and then
people made programming for teletypes as it was the only possible input on
these days.

It does not mean that it it the best input for a computer, far from it, you
just have to redesign everything(as iphone did with the iphone) in the
programming world too.

Of course, this takes work and good programmers are lazy.

------
jeiting
I grew up on Windows PCs, the barrier to entry for tinkering with apps on
Windows was way higher than building things with iOS SDK or HTML. I am not
worried at all about the children of tomorrow.

------
rbranson
The "post-PC era" is a myth. The only thing that's stayed constant about
computing is it's growing ubiquity.

~~~
mcantelon
Exactly... PCs and mobile devices have existed in parallel for some time.
"Post-PC" is a propaganda term.

~~~
vacri
I think it's more meant to be "bulk of computers people use in general won't
be traditional desktops/laptops" and less "desktops/laptops are going to be
eradicated"

------
Vivtek
Your iPad has a browser. That browser runs HTML5 and JavaScript. That's the
quick way to get to something programmable. If you want to get down and dirty,
drop thirty bucks on an Arduino.

Personally, I think the post-PC era is going to be even more awesome.

~~~
wanorris
Totally agree on the browser.

But as an aside, can you program an Arduino if all you have is an iPad? Or
would you have to go buy a general-purpose PC for somewhat more than $30?

~~~
Vivtek
_I_ could program an Arduino with a pair of tweezers, son.

...

Seriously, I have no idea. I suppose Apple's too cool for USB ports, but maybe
Wifi? That ups the cost of your Arduino setup, it's true, but still - there
has to be _something_ you can do to communicate between your iPad and your
Arduino that doesn't involve a general-purpose machine in between.

------
akat
The "post-PC era" is greatly exaggerated. It may eventually happen but only
for those kinds of consumers who would have never bothered with LEGO anyways.
For hackers, the PC (or Mac) isn't going anywhere.

In other words, if everyone uses the iPad, who creates iPads and all the apps?

------
antimora
Innovation will always happen. However as time progresses, the context of new
ideas and innovations will change.

New things will be invented in terms of existing ideas or viewpoints, as Alan
Kay likes to refer [1].

[1] - <http://tele-task.de/archive/video/flash/14029/>

Legos, I should remind, are existing technology, which didn't exist in 2
centuries ago. And I am sure stones and sticks were precursors to the
invention of Legos, and now Legos will be replaced with computers as a tinker
device.

------
brackin
Lots of innovation has come from post-PC devices, including all of the
development for these app stores and jail breaking. Playing with my iPhone 4S,
especially Siri. I know this is the future.

Laptops will still be around for a long time, Microsoft's vision is confusing
admittedly but I think not everyone needs a full computer. Those that do can
have both or continue to use their computers.

I think having a lower barrier to entry is always good and think we have to
let the way we build things evolve otherwise it goes against this whole
ideology.

~~~
manojlds
He is talking about creating your own Siri and not "playing with Siri"

------
zachrose
Paraphrasing Kevin Kelly, there are more stone hammers being made today than
at any time in human history.

------
eren-tantekin
What he described is not really the post-pc era, but the Apple era.

------
kylemccann
I think I will be like those old men who still rave about their vinyl records
and would part with them. As long as Pc devices as we know them such as
desktops and laptops are produced and supported by websites and apps I will
use them. I believe there will always be a use for a more physical computing
experience..

------
programminggeek
What is ironic is that this post-PC era is driven largely by open source
software Unix,gcc toolchain,webkit,etc.(iOS), Linux,Java,Webkit(Android), with
"the cloud" built on top of Linux, Javascript, Ruby, PHP, Python, Java,
Apache, Nginx, git, svn, etc....

So many devices might be "closed systems" but they are almost all built on the
shoulders of open standards, open tools, and as a creator you have so many
more opportunities to do interesting things in both the hardware and software
space for next to no investment that it's incredible.

Post-PC might change how end-users consume our software, but it's not going to
make the tools to create it less available.

Stop whining about the theoretical future and build something.

------
netmute
You may be 18, but you sound like an ignorant old man. "Back in my day, we
wrote our own BASIC programs! That's how we got good!"

There will be new and unexpected ways to create and tinker with technology.
Don't give in to the "old man thinking", change is good.

~~~
orangecat
_change is good_

Improved technology is good. Companies attempting to dictate how you're
allowed to use that technology is bad.

~~~
ugh
But they don’t. They clearly don’t. Apple has no monopoly.

------
dr_
Why scared? There is nothing to stop someone from hacking a device - but then
do we want all devices to be hacked? If Siri is somehow integrated into my car
in the future, do I want my kid hacking into it and messing around with it,
potentially resulting in who knows what.

The ability to play around and change things is always gonna be there and in
fact with locked devices in some ways it's even better - you'll have to be
more enthusiastic and perhaps more talented to hack it, and that breeds and
entirely new generation of hackers.

And remember - even Apple ended up hiring the person who created his own
version of an iPhone notification system on his jailbroken phone.

------
ora600
Obviously the author doesn't have kids. I don't think anything can prevent
them from breaking and changing things. Maybe they won't do it with iPad
(although I doubt it), but they'll still do it. Part of being a human child
and all.

------
dendory
Is it bad that people no longer learn how an MBR works, or how useful command
lines are, or what real memory versus protected memory is, because we have GUI
operating systems?

Is there less people going to hack their own chips, connecting wires together
and learning how to write micro code, because we have devices that don't
require it?

Technology always works like that. Today's kids start with an iPad and iPhone.
A few years ago kids started with a GUI OS like Windows of MacOS. A few years
prior they started with DOS. Before that they started with a Commodore or
Amiga. It's just evolution, and every time you add another layer of
abstraction.

------
forgottenpaswrd
Well, the ipad is not definitive.

It is just a PC with multitouch support, this does not mean that all the tools
that create things are going to die, just because today they are designed for
the mouse.

When Apple started with the desktop paradigm, there were not tools for it. The
had to convince people to use mouse and clicks first, they even had to remove
the cursor keys so developers were forced to adapt their software.

Ipad has made a fantastic job convincing people that yes, people love the
multitouch interface so if you want to make money you need to adapt your
software. Adobe and others are listening to the signal.

And if everything fails, we will always have Linux.

------
InclinedPlane
What the writer is trying to get at is the idea that people will just accept
that computers work by magic. That's by far the dominant way most people view
automobiles today, for example.

And while this is distressing in some ways, I don't see it as _necessarily_ a
show stopper. People who are curious will find a way to peak under the veneer
of magic and fiddle with the internals. Maybe kids will tend not to learn
programming via command line apps written in basic, Java, python, or C, but
that won't stop them from learning Javascript. And it won't stop them from
learning C eventually either.

------
tuhin
So essentially the promise and dream of the post-PC era comes at the cost of
killing the current golden age of Computers? I would say we are being
hyperbolic here.

For what it is worth I, (and I know of so many other people) have an iPad but
end up spending my entire time (around 10-12 hours everyday) in front of a
Mac. This is not going to change anytime in the near future because quite
frankly the iPad is just not capable of doing all that I want to do on a
"computer".

So yes. there is a post-PC era, but think of it as a new species that co-
exists than an evolution that simply eliminates the last one.

------
angrycoder
This doesn't make any sense to me. The presence of post-pc devices doesn't
void the existence of the PC.

Today you can go on ebay and for a hundred bucks get a several year old laptop
and install a totally free operating system. You'll have access to dozens of
free programming languages, complete with free compilers/interpreters, tools,
and documentation. You can go on the internet and find tutorials, books, ask
questions, and have conversations with actual programmers. Things have never
been better for those with curiosity, kids or otherwise.

------
abuzzooz
Not sure if the Lego example is a good one. Lego has been available for over
60 years, and still going strong. According to his website, the OP is 18 years
old. If his fears had any basis, then Lego would have disappeared way before
he was born.

Another important point is that our experiences shape us in specific ways. Our
kids' experiences will shape them differently. Having iPads does not make them
any less inventive or curious. It's just that we can not imagine, today, what
they will think of in the future.

------
freejack
The First Law of Being a Kid states;

"If you can't break it, try harder. If that doesn't work, whack the shit out
of it."

You are 100% correct in your observation that tinkering leads to innovation. I
think that just means that we're going to see different kinds of tinkering in
the future.

When I was growing up, that meant overclocking chips because you didn't like
the speed of your machine. Today that means jailbreaking an iPhone because you
don't like Apple's rules.

I would have much rather been breaking iPhones than XTs when I was growing up
:)

------
jhermsmeyer
Those that are driven to make things will be _inspired_ by what the post-pc
landscape has to offer, not dissuaded.

I don't want to completely discount this short post, but the FUD here seems
misplaced. Many more people are being attracted to post-pc devices vs. pcs.
The fraction that go on to become engineers will make for a larger pool of
hackers, not a smaller one.

Things don't have to be hard to inspire one to hack. They just need to be
sufficiently interesting.

------
postscapes1
This guy is missing out on the possibilities of the Third Wave of computing
and the Makers Revolution.

Here are a couple of projects making this accessible to everyone.

<http://readiymate.com/>

<http://teagueduino.org/>

Arduino Tinker.it:
[http://store.arduino.cc/ww/index.php?main_page=index&cPa...](http://store.arduino.cc/ww/index.php?main_page=index&cPath=16)

------
parrots
People are _afraid_ of technology because of the crap tech from the past 20
years. What do you think happens when those people stop being afraid? Suddenly
software development feels accessible to a bunch more people.

I'd argue that people won't stop wanting to tinker, that in fact more people
will start to because they no longer think it's impossible.

~~~
dlitz
My high school (1997-2001) reinforced this. They _suspended kids from school_
for tinkering. And by tinkering, I mean "bringing up a DOS prompt instead of
using the pre-canned IBM ICLAS menu system".

------
Hitchhiker
<http://futureoftheinternet.org> offers an expansive look at the problems
hinted in the parent link.

<http://futureoftheinternet.org/glossary> gives the key concepts around which
great fights will ensue.

------
chaostheory
Not everyone will get an iPad. Most people will eventually go Android, and
that's easy to root and replace with whatever you want.

Even if you get an iPad, you can always jailbreak it. Curious kids will always
find a way to break into something.

------
buff-a
"Why I'm scared...."

Don't be scared. Have fun! Make BASIC for the iPad or something silly like
that.

~~~
glassx
Exactly! And you don't even have to bother making something - there's already
a couple Basic interpreters... and Scheme... and Lua.

------
sunahsuh
My family didn't own a computer until after I had read my first programming
book (I was in 2nd grade, the computer in my classroom fascinated me, and the
public library had a book about BASIC.) Curiosity always finds a way.

------
orenmazor
This happened in cars ages ago. I'm the only one of my friends who knows how
to debug a carburetor.

hell, I'm the only one who cares.

and thats fine. not everybody cares. some people just want to drive.

~~~
gbog
The guy who wrote Zen and the art of motorcycle maintenance seem to think it
is Not Fine.

~~~
orenmazor
progress requires some kind of encapsulation. I dont need to make fire to boil
eggs… or even understand how the power gets to my house.

------
joebadmo
A recent discussion on this topic:
<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2955472>

------
geraldalewis
> do kids stop learning that things can break, and be changed

Maybe kids lose the expectation that software _should_ break.

------
nhughes
Better tools can increase an individual's potential.

------
stesch
We need Minecraft for iPad. :-)

------
dextorious
The opening line of the article:

> "Imagine if legos didn’t exist. I don’t think I would be where I am today".

Working at legoland?

