
The Latest Bull Case for Electric Cars: The Cheapest Batteries - prostoalex
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/latest-bull-case-for-electric-cars-the-cheapest-batteries-ever
======
simonsarris
I'm really grateful to Tesla/GM/Nissan and the people buying their cars. It
seems like even with all the missed milestones (mostly Tesla) they're still
dragging the industry forward by leaps. I wonder what it would look like
without them. Remember, the original cellphone cost $4000-something, before
inflation.

I don't even like cars, I like trains and walking and hate what cars have done
to our cities and villages, but electric cars are the first tech in a long
time that has given me a _sense of optimism_ for the future that I've only
ever felt looking at old advertisements[1] from before I was born.

If there were Beatitudes for technology, maybe they'd go like:

 _" Blessed are the early adopters, for they allow the meek-pocketbook'd to
inherit the earth."_

[1] [https://imgur.com/FRKdZ2o](https://imgur.com/FRKdZ2o) (Have you ever seen
an advertisement this positive? Ads these days mostly seem to fall into
categories like glib humor and narcissistic 'buy this because you deserve
it/you're the best/you can't be the best unless you have it'.)

~~~
gitah
This is a very Silicon Valley / US bubble mindset. Telsa/GM/Nissan have made
much contribution but your are missing the major factor driving the EV
industry forward which is government industrial policy.

The real reason is EU and China have announced their intention of banning ICE
vehicles around 2030 with China having very aggressive EV marketshare goals
starting next year. Companies that do not meet EV sale goals will have to buy
credits from others that do just like a carbon emission market. This is
causing all major automakers to not be complacent and invest heavily in EVs.

~~~
sandover
This is misleading. These (quite recent) changes in governmental policy have
come about as a result of things that Tesla managed to achieve, firstly, on
its own, and secondly, through its effects on the behavior of other
automakers. No major automaker was meaningfully working on EVs before Tesla;
now they all are.

Indeed, to a rare degree, the shift we're seeing in a major sector of the
world economy is the result of the unilateral actions of just one person: Elon
Musk.

~~~
gitah
This is typical Silicon Valley hype taking credit for everything. There were
many EV manufacturers around the same time as Tesla (ex. Nissan, BYD). Even
earlier, the supply chain for lithium batteries got momentum due to electric
buses and hybrid vehicle manufactures but no one gives them credit, only Tesla
for some reason. Currently, Tesla is only a small chunk of the entire EV and
battery market but still gets all the credit.

You can see this in the Tesla Semi or the Tesla battery pack announcement.
Companies have been mass producing them 4 years before and are already being
used in production today. However, being B2B, these products were largely low
key. But somehow Tesla gets all the credit these and "moving the industry
forward". Chinese and Korean battery manufactures have also been expanding
production like crazy and account for the vast majority of production but only
the GigaFactory gets any mention which cause some people think Tesla alone is
responsible for the decreasing price of batteries.

Major auto manufactures are working on EV mainly due to government policy. I
agree private companies seeing traction selling EVs is a large impetus for the
new government policies, but to only credit Tesla is over-exagerating it's
contributions. How much does Tesla influence Chinese policy when 95% of
Chinese EVs are made by domestic brands?

~~~
greglindahl
Can you give us a list of companies producing semi trucks with large range
starting 4 years ago? All of the ones I've seen have small ranges.

Likewise, can you tell us what BYD should be praised for? They keep on
announcing that they're going to compete with Tesla head-to-head with long-
range high-performance cars, but the only thing they've managed to get volume
on are low-performance, lower-range Chinese compliance cars. Tesla is praised
for making electric cars sexy; is BYD doing that?

Third, I'm sure you've noticed that at the lower end of the US market, the
Leaf gets a lot of credit, as does the Bolt.

~~~
gitah
1) New models will obviously have more range than ones 4 years ago... My point
was the Tesla Semi should be treated as incremental rather than revolutionary,
just like releasing a new smartphone model with more RAM than one 4 years ago.
Also the Tesla Semi hasn't even launched yet so they can easily overpromise
making comparisons with any existing offerings difficult.

2) As with Ford for ICE vehicles, affordable EVs selling higher volumes are
much more important to than the premium EVs offered by Tesla in terms bringing
the tech mainstream. In this way, BYD and Nissan should be credited much more
than Tesla. In terms of contribution, I would put BYD much higher than Tesla:
BYD manufacturers their own batteries, sell more vehicles, drive industry
competition in the much more relevant CN market, and their success influnced
the Chinese government to phase out ICE cars.

3) My post was specifically replying the the person above who was worshipping
Musk on a pedestal and giving all the credit to Tesla.

~~~
greglindahl
1) The first electric cars were from the early 1900s, everything since should
be treated as incremental, just like the iPhone wasn't that much of an advance
over other smartphones.

2) Halo products are a concept, but apparently not in cars. BYD's failed
attempts to introduce premium cars, followed by eventual success in me-too
compliance cars for the Chinese market deserves a participation award. Not
praise.

3) Uh, OK. Never mind the facts, let's focus on opposing Musk worship.

~~~
gitah
Don't think I can ever convince people like you. In terms of scale, driving
down costs and adoption, Tesla is a shrimp.

Keep being arrogant and think the world revolves around Silicon Valley tech
companies. When EVs completely replaces ICE, people like you will think Musk
did by himself against dumb incumbents while completely ignoring the much much
greater contributions of everyone else.

I'll just leave with this statistic [1]:

> China’s demand for electric bus batteries is almost equal to that of demand
> for all electric vehicle batteries

[1] [https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-08/china-
goe...](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-08/china-goes-all-in-
on-the-transit-revolution)

~~~
greglindahl
Huh, you just made up a bunch of stuff and said I believe it. I'm not the
strawman you were attempting to beat.

------
matt_wulfeck
One of the greatest things about owning electric car is the absolutely
_minimal_ maintenance. It's actually a simple machine even though it's got a
lot of technology in it. With less moving parts there's less things breaking.

This is great news for the battery. The $209 price puts a new Leaf's battery
in the $5k range, which is slightly more than what Nissan currently charges to
replace it. At $100 then a new battery costs just $2400, even less with a
trade in. I can imagine pay that amount every 8 years.

~~~
manmal
What I don’t understand about the Leaf though - it’s about €13k more expensive
than my car when it was new 2y ago (Kia Ceed SW), which even has more extras
than the basic Leaf. If the 40kwh battery costs about 8k now, and the rest of
the car is cheaper to build - where does the remaining 5k go? Nissan’s
pockets? Or is this owed to lower unit production?

~~~
dangrossman
Nissan could almost certainly sell the Leaf for much less. When they wanted to
clear out 2017 inventory, they offered $10000 discounts on top of all the
government incentives. People took a brand new "$32,000" car home for $11,500
or less.

But the market's currently willing to bear the price they're asking, so why
not ask it? They sold over 20,000 units of the new 2018 Leaf in its first
month on the market, and government incentives around the world make the
actual buying price much lower than the sticker price for many buyers.

I also have to disagree about the Kia Ceed being nicer than a basic Leaf.
There's many years of fuel savings to factor in as well.

~~~
ec109685
They lowered the prices because they needed to sell a certain number for
compliance reasons, so it was a better deal to sell them at a loss:

Nissan says that lands the Leaf in a sweet spot between so-called compliance
EVs—low-cost electrics with relatively limited range that manufacturers
produce to meet certain regulations—and Chevrolet’s Bolt EV and Tesla’s Model
3, both of which offer greater than 200 miles of range but at a higher cost.

[https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2018-nissan-leaf-
first-...](https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2018-nissan-leaf-first-drive-
review)

~~~
dangrossman
That'd be a plausible explanation if they didn't run the $10K discounts
outside CARB states, which they did. There were no "compliance" benefits to
offset any theoretical losses on those sales.

------
saturdaysaint
The new Nissan Leaf looks like an impressive step forward. Double the driving
range and around a third more horsepower from last year's model for the same
price.

[https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2018-nissan-leaf-
first-...](https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2018-nissan-leaf-first-drive-
review)

~~~
dangrossman
It's only 25-40% more range than last year's model, not double. The battery
went from 30 kWh to 40 kWh.

~~~
mywittyname
The first generation battery was 24.0kWh, the 30.0 came a few years later as
an option. The original range was 73 miles, then 105 miles, to now 150 miles.

The OP was apparently comparing 2011 figures to 2018 ones.

------
CalChris
I have a 2013 Nissan Leaf which is down to about 70 miles of range which is
annoying. And still, I'd _never_ buy another ICE again. My next car will be a
Tesla or a Bolt. I don't think the 2018 Leaf is in the picture but maybe if
Nissan gave me a good trade-in.

~~~
vvanders
I never found out if the new leafs actually use proper thermal management with
a coolant loop on the pack. It's a shame the never did it on the original and
battery life suffers because of it.

~~~
dangrossman
> I never found out if the new leafs actually use proper thermal management
> with a coolant loop on the pack.

It does not. It's just a 25% larger version of last year's battery.

A 60 kWh battery pack manufactured by LG Chem is slated for later in 2018. LG
Chem's battery packs for other EVs are liquid cooled.

My uninformed theory is that Nissan contracted to buy far more batteries from
AESC than they ended up needing for the Leaf's sales volume, and is still
getting rid of them.

~~~
vvanders
Damn, that's unfortunate. It has a bad side-effect of giving EVs a worse name
then the deserve.

~~~
lafar6502
? man what are you talking about? Its normal battery degradation and the car
doesnt need any special thermal management or whatever you call it. Besides,
if anyone believes in the leaps in battery capacity and charging speeds, you
should throw away your old battery every 2 years because it's already old, too
heavy and not environmentally friendly enough.

~~~
dangrossman
> Its normal battery degradation and the car doesnt need any special thermal
> management or whatever you call it.

Sorry but you're wrong on this. The Nissan Leaf's battery degradation is not
normal; it's so abnormal that Nissan was forced to _retroactively_ add a
warranty for it, and redesign the battery pack twice within the first
generation to try to slow it down. Cars driven in hot climates lost upwards of
30% of their battery capacity in 1-2 years because the battery has no real
thermal management, which virtually every other EV on the road has.

Tesla's vehicles, for example, have been on the road as long as the Leaf. They
lose about 5% battery capacity in the first 50,000 miles and less than 10%
after 100,000 miles on average. Chevrolet has had zero warranty claims in the
entire life of the Volt vehicle program for battery degradation.

Meanwhile, my Nissan Leaf has 23,000 miles on the odometer and has lost over
25% of its original battery capacity.

> Besides, if anyone believes in the leaps in battery capacity and charging
> speeds, you should throw away your old battery every 2 years because it's
> already old, too heavy and not environmentally friendly enough.

You're being disingenuous, right? The batteries don't change that much that
quickly, and there's no environmental case for throwing away $5000+ in working
batteries every other year. There's nobody selling upgraded replacement
batteries for EVs anyway.

------
Animats
That's just assuming ordinary mass production economies, not improved battery
technology. This is just a 50% price decrease on increased manufacturing
volume, which is not unusual.

Battery cells are a good item for automated manufacturing. They're all the
same, and they're made by the millions. (For some reason, Panasonic is having
troubles at their battery cell plant in Nevada, but they should get past that.
Panasonic makes the cells, Tesla assembles them into packs.)

That also holds for recycling. Taking apart packs and recycling them should be
an efficient process. It already is for lead-acid batteries.

------
itchyjunk
Hey didn't I see an article on the same website claiming Musk made some claim
about semi which can't be true because of battery costs? I'm on phone so I
couldn't double check it easily. Apologies if my memories are failing me.

------
haberman
I just can't bring myself to replace my aging 2003 Subaru when I know cars are
going to improve so much in the next 5 years.

Between electric drivetrain technology and self-driving, it seems like things
are going to improve rapidly in the next 5-10 years.

~~~
BuckRogers
If you get a Model 3 with the option, you're prepared for autonomous driving.
Stretching out an 03 another 10 years will be a trying affair. It'll be a 24
year old car. Just buy one when you feel it needs to be replaced, which I'd
assume should be soon. Be glad that there is an option out there that covers
you, at least on the autonomous driving front. Tesla will enable it as soon as
the legal situation it is sorted out. We're past the days of worrying about
getting the battery chemistry good-enough too.

I'd say you actually stretched that car out just the right amount of time to
reap the benefits, perfect timing. I'm holding onto my '07 till I get my own
Model 3, so I'm in a similar boat.

------
cr0sh
Isn't there a limited amount of easily minable lithium metal, though? I could
have sworn I read that somewhere...

~~~
beefield
It does not matter. You need less than a dollar's worth of lithium to a kWh of
battery thay costs 200 dollars. Once you increase a price of commodity by an
order of magnitude - which we can here easily afford - all current reserve
estimates are worthless due to massive new interest in research and
development in mining technology and deposit discovery.

~~~
rad_gruchalski
What you are saying leads me to the following thought: lithium will be the new
oil. With all the same consequences that oil has now.

~~~
scythe
This is simply false. The amount of lithium in a battery is about 400 g/kWh

[http://www.meridian-int-
res.com/Projects/How_Much_Lithium_Pe...](http://www.meridian-int-
res.com/Projects/How_Much_Lithium_Per_Battery.pdf)

Putting a 100 kWh battery in a car would then require 40 kg of lithium, and
with 2bn cars (projection for mid-21st century) you're looking at 80 million
tonnes of lithium. The ocean contains about 240 _billion_ tonnes of lithium,
3000x requirements, and extracting lithium from seawater costs about $30/kg:

[http://gas2.org/2008/10/13/lithium-counterpoint-no-
shortage-...](http://gas2.org/2008/10/13/lithium-counterpoint-no-shortage-for-
electric-cars/)

so the total value of that lithium comes to _less than_ $2.4T. While not a
small figure, this is miniscule compared to the global oil industry, which
brings in more than that _per year_ :

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_oil_and_gas_co...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_oil_and_gas_companies_by_revenue)

and that's using some of the most pessimistic numbers for lithium costs and
requirements that I can find. The actual operation of the global lithium
market will probably bring the total cost well below $1T, and seawater
extraction will probably never be necessary:

[https://gigaom.com/2010/03/10/will-seawater-stave-off-a-
lith...](https://gigaom.com/2010/03/10/will-seawater-stave-off-a-lithium-
squeeze/)

Lithium absolutely will not, ever, be in any way comparable to oil in terms of
price, environmental damage, or political impact. Lithium Chicken-Littling is
not helpful to anyone.

~~~
rad_gruchalski
I was explicitly referring to the topic of mining and discovering new
reserves. But thanks for resources.

