

U.S. Forecast as No. 2 Economy but Energy Independent - bejar37
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/11/world/china-to-be-no-1-economy-before-2030-study-says.html?pagewanted=1&_r=0&hp

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edj
_"The worst-case situation envisions a stalling of economic globalization that
would preclude any advancement of financial well-being around the world. That
would be a likely outcome after an outbreak of a health pandemic that, even if
short-lived, would result in closed borders and economic isolationism."_

If a reduction in globalization is the worst case scenario the authors
envision in the next 20 years, I think they may be lacking somewhat in
imagination.

~~~
yequalsx
Indeed. No mention of global warming and this omission makes me think that it
was written with a specific goal in mind. That is, to justify some program or
policy that powerful people are behind.

~~~
ChuckMcM
Or they just assume that global warming is a given. I think more interesting
questions is whether or not the current "debate"[1] about the role of religion
as government that is going on in the middle east will escalate into a world
wide conflict.

[1] Generally watching the Arab spring is like watching a referendum vote on
the principle of separating church and state. But done with guns, bombs, and
civilian casualties rather than a voting box.

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kriro
_"In an interview, Mr. Burrows noted that the audiences in China were far more
accepting of the American intelligence assessments — both those predicting
China’s economic ascendancy and those warning of political dangers if there
was no reform of governance in Beijing — than were audiences in Russia."_

Really, they project China as #1 and Russia on a major downwards trend.
Astonishing that this would be the reaction.

The whole cyber-attack warning reminds me of all the Ma Bell projections of
phone outages during the phreaking era :P

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bhousel
_"The study warns of the risk that terrorists could mount a computer-network
attack in which the casualties would be measured not by the hundreds or
thousands killed but by the millions severely affected by damaged
infrastructure, like electrical grids’ being taken down."_

I wonder about this. It seems like every study about the dangers of terrorism
mentions this kind of cyber-attack as a possibility, and I just don't see it
as being feasible. Hurricane Sandy cut out my own power for a week, and
several people I know were without power for 2 weeks, and we got through it. I
just don't believe that a cyber attack could damage the electrical
infrastructure so badly that it would kill thousands.

~~~
ChuckMcM
A number of folks have argued that if it so easy to do this level of damage
with a cyber attack why hasn't a terrorist done so in the last 10 years? Its
not like you have to 'sneak' into the country or get pass the security theatre
at the airport to mount such an attack. Hacking toolkits and websites are at
least as easy to find as bomb making web sites.

~~~
roc
Obscurity. It's not like these machines are clearly marked with signs and
access points as with Airports.

So the challenge is on par with saying "find a _particular_ unsecured box on
the internet". Without per-target research, you don't have a whole lot to go
on. You can find tons and tons of targets. But the odds of them being the one
you _wanted_ , or even _of the type_ you wanted, are pretty low.

Which isn't to say it's less a threat. But, rather, it's a threat that isn't
likely to be _casually_ exploited. Anyone who goes through the trouble of per-
target research and exploitation of a number of such targets, isn't likely to
pull the trigger for the lulz.

Even a "trial run" of an exploit would be a risk. You'd be inviting scrutiny
of the trial machine, including logs at the ISP (and NSA) going back cheney-
knows-how-far, and if nothing else, have drawn attention to the very problem
you're hoping continues to be ignored.

~~~
bhousel
So I suppose my original comment should have just outright asked: What can a
hacker actually do with (hypothetical) remote access to the electrical
infrastructure? Open switches under load to effect an arc blast? Blow up a few
substations?

Once hackers start mucking around with the grid, things start shutting down by
themselves (cascading failures like in the 2003 blackout that you mentioned in
another comment). In this situation, damaged equipment can be replaced fairly
quickly (far quicker than if, say, a $60 billion storm throws trees across the
wires).

I guess I was just looking more for responses from actual electrical engineers
with knowledge of the problem. Otherwise we're all just talking out our
collective asses, right?

------
_exec
DNI website seems to be down at the moment. Report mirror:
<http://www.scribd.com/doc/115962650/GlobalTrends-2030>

