

The Official March Madness Predictive Analytics Challenge - imleeeee
http://blog.smellthedata.com/2010/03/official-march-madness-predictive.html

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dtran
"must be based on historical data"... what about crowdsourced predictive
analysis? Something like stocktwits for real-time investment ideas - analyze
what people think about games for Twitter, although that would only work
during each successive round and not for filling out a bracket at the very
beginning. I could see that working since anyone who takes the time to tweet
"team x over team y" is self-filtering for game predictive knowledge.
Thoughts?

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danger
your idea sounds interesting, but i think it's getting at a different
comparison. as presented, the contest is about who can design an algorithm to
get the most out of a set (but large) quantity of data.

what you're suggesting is where to get the best data from. i think it's also
an interesting question, but it would need to be in a separate category at the
very least. also, wouldn't the best bet (pun intended) just be to go with the
bookie odds? people who are putting money on the games presumably have better
information than somebody just tweeting their prediction.

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Aron
If I went to the effort of doing this I'd probably also find somewhere to bet
real money on my picks.

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danger
You think you can build a model that is better than the bookies's?

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Aron
Highly unlikely. I might be able to beat the local bar's betting circle
though.

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penismightier
Awesome

