

Only $50B? Facebook Stock Is Still a Steal - rblion
http://gigaom.com/2011/01/15/only-50-billion-facebook-stock-is-still-a-steal/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+OmMalik+%28GigaOM%3A+Tech%29

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jdp23
"I don’t have any inside information about Facebook’s finances, and I’m not a
Goldman client. But I’m convinced that when we look back at this investment,
it will rank as one of the best stock opportunities available today — akin to
buying Apple stock just before the release of the iPod.... Disclosure: Ethan
has a very small position in a Facebook secondary vehicle, purchased in 2010."

Oh, well, at least it's an expert opinion from somebody who has no stake in
the matter.

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trotsky
_it will rank as one of the best stock opportunities available today — akin to
buying Apple stock just before the release of the iPod_

Just for laughs:

AAPL in 2001: ~$25 per share

AAPL today: $350 per share

Increase in value: 1400%

Facebook market cap today: $50B

Ethan's projected facebook market cap: $700B

Current largest US public company in market cap: XOM @ $380B

So yeah, he's only projecting facebook to become twice as valuable as the most
valuable US company is currently.

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TomOfTTB
While all the sarcastic responses are funny there is a serious point here. If
you're a technology VC you get a skewed view of the world because...

1\. Everyone you interact with (Entrepreneurs, Journalists, Fellow VCs,
etc...) is crazy for Social Networking which makes them very active.

2\. You see abstract statistics like "55% of all adults over 12 use Facebook"
or "73% of all U.S. Internet users are on Facebook"

These two facts lead you to believe Facebook is this massive, unstoppable
movement that will rule the world. But in my experience (as a passive Facebook
user myself) only about 10% of the people I've friended on Facebook actively
post material on a regular basis (maybe a little higher if you count status
updates alone as activity).

I saw this same thing when I worked in the Valley at the very end of the 90s.
The people there thought ideas like Webvan and the original Pets.com were
genius because everyone they knew wanted to do all their shopping online. Only
after those startups failed did we realize the rest of the world wasn't as
enamored as we were.

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beoba
The new decade's version of <http://www.amazon.com/dp/0735201374/>

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yanowitz
Facebook has yet to _really_ monetize it's 500mm users.

Example: in just a couple of years from when it chose to, it can eviscerate a
$37 billion company: eBay. Hell, it could do it as a hobby at first. Then it
can start to make real money. Imagine reputation based on your social graph,
auction ads/placement based on all the fine grained data they have (and then
once they have data on your past purchasing interest/decisions...), etc...

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decadentcactus
I see things like what you say, that "they just need to start trying" and it
makes it seem like if I said "I could just start training to be an athlete,
and in a couple of years I'd probably win [whatever]". They haven't really
done anything until they actually... do something.

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p90x
I'm wondering if equity markets are near some kind of top. The things that
make me thing that are facebook private placement, talk about a facebook IPO,
Li Ka-shing doing an IPO of his Chinese property development company.

They all seem to be cashing out.

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jdp23
hmm ... it's almost like it's a bubble or something ...

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patrickgzill
Attempt to provide an alternate POV:

"The truly staggering valuation of $50 billion that Goldman Sachs has placed
on Facebook, the Internet social networking website is significantly higher
than the estimated $30 billion value of silver held in [all] the vaults of the
world."

<http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1294236772.php>

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paulbaumgart
I really don't understand how the price of silver is related to Facebook's
valuation.

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artpop
All of the world's silver is supposedly worth less than a shitty social
networking site...

~~~
tptacek
I'd like to sell you some silver. Let's get on the phone soon.

