
New Climate Maps Show a Transformed United States - mzs
https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/
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mzs
Future of the human climate niche Chi Xu, Timothy A. Kohler, Timothy M.
Lenton, Jens-Christian Svenning, and Marten Scheffer PNAS May 26, 2020 117
(21) 11350-11355; first published May 4, 2020
[https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117)
Contributed by Marten Scheffer, October 27, 2019 (sent for review June 12,
2019; reviewed by Victor Galaz and Luke Kemp)

[https://www.pnas.org/content/117/21/11350](https://www.pnas.org/content/117/21/11350)

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EricE
This is still a big freaking country - I don't see population shifts as
cataclysmic. They have happened all throughout our history.

Also I think it's folly to assume people will congregate in large metropolitan
areas like they have in the past. One of the blessings of COVID-19 is many
companies have woken up to the power and benefits of remote work. I expect our
society to decentralize and if this study is accurate I'd see it as just
another factor accelerating some of these trends.

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ideals
The date ranges they show are 2040-2060. Mortgages are typically 30years. If
you buy a house this year you'll be right in the middle of this outcome when
your mortgage is paid off and at an age where you'll be looking at retirement.

I'm imagining it being much harder to sell a house in an area with many web
bulb days and resulting in a cratering real estate market in those areas most
affected.

How long until climate change starts driving real estateprices and also where
people decide to start a career or family?

The USG does pretty much everything it can to prop up home prices as well,
possibly as a counter argument to the above question. Will that trend continue
when it becomes overwhelmingly difficult to live/farm in those areas?

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mzs
It's already happening. It became virtually impossible to buy private home
owner's insurance in parts of CA after wildfires. CA gov stepped in and
created a one year moratorium on insurance COs cancelling those policies. That
is about to lapse and what happens next is really up in the air. It certainly
will be quite more difficult to sell a home difficult/expensive to insure.

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rayiner
> Populous cities with expensive real estate, including Houston A and Miami B,
> will see damage tallied in the billions — losses worth several percentage
> points of GDP — largely driven by storms, sea level rise and deaths from
> high heat, Hess said. Climate will have a larger proportional impact in
> rural places like Gulf County, Florida C, which might lose half its economy.

Even in the high emissions scenario, apart from some hard hit gulf coast
areas, the losses will be a couple of percent loss in GDP. With some places
even increasing in GDP due to better suitability for agriculture? Why do we
need a “total economic mobilization” to avoid this?

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dctoedt
You're pretty optimistic about the net effect.

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rayiner
I’m just going by the map in the article.

