
VW Scandal Will Speed Up Diesel's Demise - dexen
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-22/vw-s-scandal-will-lead-to-the-demise-of-diesel
======
junto
I'd be interested to know what the US public opinion was on diesel engines
before the scandal.

British opinion on diesel was really positive and I know lots of people that
purchased diesel engined vehicles when (to my knowledge) they were unsuitable
for the type of driving those people were undertaking.

In Germany, people will not buy a diesel if they are mostly driving short
trips. It is common knowledge (here) that the air filters on diesel engines
need time (~15 minutes) to properly warm up to be able to burn off the soot in
the filter. Therefore, only the traditional fleet cars who are driven by
salesmen driving long stretches on the Autobahn tend to buy diesels.

Was this also the same in the US, because many of my friends that own diesels
in the UK had never heard of this?

~~~
VLM
Old diesels were filthy. Modern diesels are not filthy and were momentarily
the "king of high tech" until the hybrids came along and dethroned them.

Much as the anti-electric car (paid?) brigade goes nuts about how every red
blooded american needs to drive more than 500 miles without taking a break or
else the car is totally useless for everyone and will never sell, the anti-
diesel people living in Florida will rant and rave about how hard it is to
start a diesel engine in -30F weather with a nearly dead battery. There's an
american tradition that you never replace your starting battery until it
literally 0 volts and won't start the car at all, no matter how annoying it is
or expensive tow trucks are or how expensive it is to burn out starter motors
or how inconvenient; given that, the user experience of the last 1/3 or so of
battery life for diesels is much worse than gas cars.

Another common stereotype is euro car replacement parts are just like detroit
replacement parts coming from the same factory in China yet mysteriously the
euro car parts cost 3 to 10 times as much. Note that its not true, BMW brake
rotors cost the same as Lexus brake rotors, but it is a common perception.

~~~
cpeterso
I'm surprised that diesel hybrid automobiles did not become a thing.

~~~
mywittyname
If diesel hybrids were superior to gasoline hybrids, they would already be a
thing.

As it stands, diesel engines are fairly incompatible with hybrid technology.
The primary driver for fuel economy improvement with a hybrid is the ability
to turn the engine off for periods of time. Diesel engines do not handle
start-stop very well, as they are much more temperature sensitive. Other
optimizations, such as Akinson cycle engines, also cannot be applied to diesel
engines with any benefit.

Diesel fuel economy shines the most on the the highway. But highway fuel
economy for a Prius is already quite good. It's unlikely that you would find a
diesel hatchback of its size that returns better highway economy from the same
amount of HP.

There's really nothing to be gained from a diesel hybrid.

------
selimthegrim
It's frustrating to see another technology possibly go the way of nuclear for
the sake of politics and optics, when the tools to remediate emissions exist.
Granted emissions expenses for diesel are at first blush several times that of
petrol engines, but a full comparison would include a) at least 25% greater
carbon tax on petrol and b) gasoline particulate filter cost for complying
with forthcoming PM2.5 regs for petrol engines, esp. the GDI engines so
beloved on Audis.

~~~
TheCondor
Is the irony lost on you? The technology exists but the leading proponents of
diesel chose not to use it.

Same with nuclear, sure there are pebble bed reactors and other safe designs,
nobody proposes them on the industrial scale. Why is that? Efficient and cost
impact profit.

------
hit8run
It is so obvious what is happening at the moment. One vendor gets "busted" for
"optimizing" for a benchmark and everyone goes hysteric. Nothing really new
happened here. Especially for those of us working in IT. Yes it is not
honorable what they did and it is cheating but I bet that every vendor
optimizes for benchmarks no matter which industry is affected. VW is probably
only the first company in automotive that got busted. Others will follow
soon..

~~~
tptacek
They didn't "optimize" for the benchmark. They detected that the benchmark was
running, and then deliberately ran the car in a different, unrealistic mode.

~~~
trymas
It's just my opinion, but every major car manufacturer produces cars which
have very similar test results compared to cheating VW results (fuel
efficiency and such).

I mean if VW got busted, with breaking NOx values by up to 20 times, for the
purpose of better acceleration, fuel efficiency and other parameters. So does
it mean that others somehow cheat, but do not get caught? Or VW, the biggest
car company group in the world, were producing much worse engines, than any
other car manufacturer (which sells cars in US) in the world. Somehow I think
it's the first one...

~~~
tptacek
I don't know, but when we think about computer hardware manufacturers
"cheating" benchmarks, those vendors virtually always have plausible
deniability. They game the benchmarks, optimizing part of their featureset to
improve scores in ways that don't carry over to real-world use.

That's not what happened here. VW has no plausible deniability in this case.

~~~
steve19
Samsung has for example been known to detect benchmarks and then over clock
the cpu and gpu. That is outright cheating.

://www.extremetech.com/computing/177841-samsungs-latest-android-update-no-
longer-cheats-on-benchmarks

~~~
duskwuff
Back around 2003, there was some controversy over similar benchmark cheating
for graphics drivers:

[http://www.geek.com/games/is-nvidia-cheating-on-
benchmarks-5...](http://www.geek.com/games/is-nvidia-cheating-on-
benchmarks-553389/)

------
whatwherehowwhy
Gee, I got sucked in big time and bought a diesel. I also lectured anyone and
everyone how I was being environmentally more responsible than they were etc.

~~~
TeMPOraL
Wasn't your fault. Vent your anger against VW and other copmanies and people
who deceive others. But please, above all, don't stop caring. We can have our
better world, but only if there's enough people who still care.

------
toolslive
what demise? [http://www.acea.be/statistics/tag/category/diesel-
penetratio...](http://www.acea.be/statistics/tag/category/diesel-penetration)

~~~
jacobolus
Note that (a) European NOx emissions standards for diesel cars were made more
than twice as strict in 2014, and (b) VW and perhaps other manufacturers were
cheating American diesel emissions standards.

It’s not an outrageous leap to suspect they may also have been cheating the
new European emissions standards. If those are properly enforced, diesel cars
could be in trouble.

cf.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_emission_standards#Em...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_emission_standards#Emission_standards_for_passenger_cars)

[http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-
transpo...](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-
transport/11881954/Volkswagen-emissions-scandal-Which-other-cars-fail-to-meet-
pollution-safety-limits.html)

------
xorcist
I am completely clueless about cars and their technology, so let me ask a
stupid question:

From what I understand, VW didn't technically cheat the benchmark in the
meaning that all the readings were truthful. What they did was enable a
benchmark mode in their engine software, so the engine ran differently under
those conditions. Or, framing the problem differently, they didn't let the
user run the engine with the same parameters as the benchmarks ran under.

So, what's stopping them? Why not give the users what they thought they paid
for?

I take it the engine would deliver less power with the economy parameters, but
isn't those values easier to get away with? You could even have an economy
mode button inside the vehicle (or perhaps they already do?) in which case all
they wouldn't have been liable for anything as all the benchmarks would have
been truthful.

~~~
zardo
It's not really a technology issue, its a regulatory one. They certified to
the EPA that they had disclosed all parameters that affect emissions in their
system. Which, not being true, was a criminal violation of the clean air act.

They can't let users switch between modes, where one more violates pollution
standards, the would still be considered a defeat device.

They can update the cars to meet emission standards, but it might actually be
the case that their cars can only pass the certification cycles in their
cheatmode, but won't actually pass an in use monitoring test.

Even if they can pass emissions, lowering the power and fuel economy is going
to mean class action lawsuits from their customers.

------
pi-err
Modern Diesel technology requires maintenance, fine tuning and specific
temperature ranges to live up to its hype. Outside of this envelope, the
engines run noisy and produce high amounts of particules.

Most people buy a diesel car because the fuel is cheaper, they will basically
not care about those 3 aspects.

As for the result, the article points to Paris: the city didn't have a smog
problem 20 years ago, and now spends half the year with smog warnings (60%
diesel cars in Paris area). Just walking by, you'll notice most cars are
noisier and smell much more than in a comparable situation in London or NYC.
By now, diesel cars in Paris area are the main particule emitters, ahead of
heating.

Diesel is a high price technology disguised as cost efficient by an
inconsiderate european strategy. Can't wait to see diesel go away - a large
scale environmental disaster.

~~~
fnordfnordfnord
>Modern Diesel technology requires maintenance, fine tuning and specific
temperature ranges to live up to its hype.

The same is true for petrol engines. Diesel requires little or no additional
maintenance.

>Most people buy a diesel car because the fuel is cheaper

Except the fuel isn't cheaper (in the US), even accounting for the higher
specific energy.
[http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/](http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/)

I like them because the engines last longer and get better fuel economy; and
in my pickup truck, higher power.

>As for the result, the article points to Paris: the city didn't have a smog
problem 20 years ago

The city didn't have as many of any kind of car 20 years ago. If you want less
smog (particulates) from diesels, then relax NOx standards.

~~~
selimthegrim
NOx generates smog

~~~
fnordfnordfnord
Smog is a general term, it can be composed of a variety of compounds including
nitrogen oxides.

------
gambiting
Meh. I've already decided my next car won't be a diesel. I bought a 1.6dCi
Nissan Qashqai in 2013 and that engine has only one advantage - ridiculously
low fuel consumption. Seriously, my usage is usually around 5L/100km or
less(56 UK MPG/47 US MPG). But - the engine is very noisy and rumbly, plus it
takes forever to warm up in winter. Seriously, I drive on the motorway on my
way to work and it's still a solid 10 minutes before any warm air starts to
enter the cabin. For the temperature indicator to get to the middle,
operational position, it's 20 minutes of driving. It's unacceptable. My
partner has a small petrol powered car, and she is warm within a minute of
starting it. The emissions scandal has only cemented my decision to not buy a
diesel in the future.

~~~
svalorzen
I'm not a car expert, but wouldn't the fact that the engine takes time to heat
up mean that it is more efficient?

~~~
ptaipale
Precisely that. Over here (Finland), modern diesels have heaters to compensate
for that (so, because the engine does not produce excess heat, the heater
burns some fuel to generate heat).

The UK models may be stripping off the heaters for cost. I hear people don't
even use winter tyres in Britain...

------
yason
I would be interested in driving a big naturally aspirated diesel engine for
its longevity and torque, but they don't make those anymore at least in
Europe. (Pollution restrictions.)

Diesels have gone from simple and nearly infinitely durable to complex and
easy to break constructs. There's EGR, DPF, direct injection, turbos, you name
it, and those are expensive to replace/repair.

On the other hand, modern diesels are quiet, they don't vibrate much, and they
deliver a crazy amount of power. But that's just something totally different
from what diesels used to be, and modern petrol engines are catching up, in a
good way. I could imagine driving a 3-cyl turbo petrol, PSA makes a few
surprisingly good ones.

------
ams6110
_It 's possible that the [tax] incentives were the result of oil industry
lobbying -- as the sales of fuel oil fell, refiners needed to sell more diesel
fuel, which is a similar type of product._

Unlikely. This may have been true a long time ago, but refining technology has
come a long way.

Diesel (or home heating oil, or kerosene, pretty much all the same thing) used
to be something of a waste product in the refining process. Thus it was
cheaper than gasoline, even though its energy content per volume unit is
higher.

Today, with improved cracking technology, refiners can make pretty much any
amount of gasoline or diesel they need from a barrel of crude oil -- what
waste is left is very heavy oil used for ship engines or industrial use.

------
rasz_pl
CO2 tax scam strikes again. I like how the Diesel craze in EU can be traced to
stupid CO2 tax and incentives, with total disregard of real actual pollutants
coming out of a tail pipe.

------
PinguTS
This article has also some misinformation. This article, as I read it, seems
to imply that the engineers where technically unable to comply with the
regulations, that why they cheating.

But it seems to be getting more clear over the last days it is the business
people - the one that read Bloomberg - that are also the cause. Because the
engineers where unable to do it within the given cost requirements. They told,
that they need a greater budget per car to comply with the regulations.

~~~
fnordfnordfnord
>This article, as I read it, seems to imply that the engineers where
technically unable to comply with the regulations, that why they cheating.

They can comply, but fuel economy will plummet. Other negatives can happen as
well, the engines can get crudded up quickly, which has already been a problem
in VW diesels, and in some Mercedes models as well.

The EPA has also been criticized here as being a tool to prevent foreign
competition from high efficiency diesels available in Europe and Asia.

>They told, that they need a greater budget per car to comply with the
regulations.

The second problem I mentioned is caused by the EGR Exhaust Gas Recirculation
systems, which are primitive; so, yeah, throwing money at that would help.

Overall, I'm fairly confident that the VW mess is the tip of a huge iceberg.
Other mfrs have been caught doing this exact same thing before.

------
raur
I can't help but think that the whole 'clean coal' industry, and carbon
capture and storage as a whole, will go exactly the same way.

------
tefo-mohapi
Or perhaps also raise concerns about electric cars as they rely heavily on
software? More and more governments are investigating VW -->
[http://www.africantechroundup.com/volkswagen-up-in-smoke-
as-...](http://www.africantechroundup.com/volkswagen-up-in-smoke-as-the-south-
african-government-is-set-to-investigate/)

------
supahfly_remix
Just curious, does anyone know if VW vehicles running biodiesel pollute just
as badly as conventional diesel? If biodiesel is chemically identical to
regular diesel, than I'd guess it would have identical NOx emissions, but I'm
not sure if this is the case

~~~
bigethan
I drove a 2001 TDI Golf for 12 years and used mostly Biodiesel. Not a chemist.

The fuels pollute differently, as they aren't chemically identical. Bio
creates more soot when it burns as it's not as efficient of a burn. But the
main charm is that no/minimal greenhouse gasses are produced by the burning
(it's corn oil, not dinosaur oil).

But.

The new Clean Diesel's aren't very Biodiesel friendly due to the cleaning
process requiring a fuel that burns a little better than Biodiesel does. So it
is a hassle if you wanted to try Biodiesel in your Clean Diesel. Not many
people were trying it according to the folks at Dogpatch BioFuels, enough so
that they looking to find new buyers for their fuel.

I don't know what matters most to the EPA, and what VW was cheating at, to
know if the defeat device in a Bio car does worse things to the environment.

~~~
TheCondor
Pretty sure biodiesel emits carbon when it burns, the charm is that it's
renewable, so long as we can farm vegetables. It's not carbon that was
sequestered in the earth but it's still carbon

~~~
bigethan
Yep that's the soot part I mentioned.

------
alkonaut
We all know the future is in hydrid and electric, but new cars sold today
under requirements of 120g/km CO2 emissions will probably be mostly diesel.
I'm getting a new car and there is just no way I can get anything _other_ than
a diesel with current regulations and taxes.

~~~
jeromeflipo
Would vote for a tax on fossil fuel to make electric/hybrid a better choice?

------
jsudhams
All most all cars encouraged more and more. 48 US MPG is the norm for petrol
cars but the diesel is 25% less costly than petrol

------
1971genocide
During the financial crisis - everyone and their mom blamed the whole thing on
the big bad wall street bankers.

And during this one its again being blamed on a individual company.

The real blame lies with government. why did the US govt fail to properly test
a car made by a foreign company ?

~~~
tzmudzin
> why did the US govt fail to properly test a car made by a foreign company ?

I propose that we focus on what's right to do rather than who gets the pie,
so:

Why did the US govt fail to properly test a car that was destined for consumer
use (regardless of company origin)?

~~~
rdsnsca
The EPA has the same problems as almost every US government department, lack
of funding.

