

Ask HN: What does the next 10-20 years look like in tech/engineering? - paulnelligan

Specific questions I'm thinking of:<p>- Is it all facebook and google from here on in?
- Are we going to solve the energy crisis?, How about the climate crisis?
- Flying cars? seriously?
- How will quantum computers change things?
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- And anything else you want to discuss ...<p>I'm not necessarily looking for hard facts.  Vague opinions can also be interesting.
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gvb
I've been reading my way through Project Gutenberg's Science Fiction
bookshelf.
[http://www.gutenberg.org/wiki/Science_Fiction_%28Bookshelf%2...](http://www.gutenberg.org/wiki/Science_Fiction_%28Bookshelf%29)

Much, maybe most, of this is short stories from the 1950s and 1960s. What
stands out for me is the big stuff has not happened and how much all the
mundane stuff has changed.

Some things that are common (and don't violate known laws of physics) that not
happened:

* Space travel.

* Atomic powered rockets. And airplanes. And cars. And toasters (see next).

* Ubiquitous, essentially free power, typically atomic. Mass to energy converters are popular in the stories. Fission/fusion reactors are extremely small and safe in the stories.

What is really interesting is how many things that are written into the
scenarios as assumptions, just normal life, have changed.

* Phones had wires and operators (and rotary dials). They typically had a video feed as well - video is available today but not prevalent for everyday use (no thanks, I don't need to see my boss).

* Smoking. Smoking. Smoking. Smoking in closed spaceship systems. More smoking.

* All computers are huge.

* Typewriters, telegraphs, etc.

* Phone booths.

Misses:

* The concept of a cell phone is totally absent.

* Data transfer between computers (e.g. internet) is nearly totally absent.

* The computer power and size of todays computers is so much greater than the power of the (huge) computers envisioned is so far different as to be effectively a miss.

My conclusion: speculating is fun, but the things that you think will be real
in 20-50 years will still be will-o-wisps. On the other hand, all the things
you take for granted will be so different that it will make your grandkids
laugh at you.

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msluyter
Ahhh, idle speculation...

Re: flying cars -- I think that even if all technical problems were resolved,
an economic/legal problem would remain. In a car, if you crash, the
externality is usually limited to the cars around you -- other drivers who
have implicitly agreed to share in the risk of driving via insurance and
whatnot.

In a flying car world, the externality of crashing (not sure if that's the
right economic phraseology) is now shared by everyone below you -- people who
want nothing to do with that risk. This isn't a huge problem with airplanes
because we have a vast regulatory apparatus to mitigate the risk. Would be
feasible with individuals routinely flying their cars over populated areas?
Seems doubtful.

TL;DR - I wouldn't trust my neighbor to fly over my house, much less my kid's
school.

Now, if all flying cars were AI controlled, that might be another story...

------
david927
I give Facebook five years before it shares the fate of MySpace. I give Google
ten years before it becomes a Yahoo -- still around but not a leading light,
by any means.

I think we will absolutely be rolling out clean energy in ten years, with 70%
of new cars as fully electric cars at that time.

The climate will continue to be changing dramatically. That's a large car
without brakes; nothing is going to stop it. We'll have cut CO2 emissions
significantly but the main damage will have already been done. I think it will
be the main focus of concern for people.

I think we'll see the Semantic Web come into full bloom and most will view the
web in terms of it, rather than the text we know today.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was at some point a large war involving
multiple countries, stopping just short of a world war. Martial law in the
United States, for example.

Huge changes in the next ten years, simply huge. But despite the negatives,
it's a great time to be alive.

~~~
paulnelligan
"I give Facebook five years before it shares the fate of MySpace. I give
Google ten years before it becomes a Yahoo -- still around but not a leading
light, by any means."

Personally, I find that very hard to envision.

~~~
waterlesscloud
I think it's more likely Google becomes a Yahoo (or even more likely, a
Microsoft) than Facebook becomes Myspace.

Facebook has avoided many of the things that made the fall of Myspace
possible, and their network is much larger, including people who came to
social networks late and are very unlikely to ever care about changing to
another one.

Google, on the other hand, already shows the early signs of Microsoftism.
Taking themselves too seriously, trying everything and excelling at nothing,
massive employee growth (which has to lower average quality). 5 years from
now, they'll be well into a downward slide.

~~~
david927
FB's _network is much larger, including people who came to social networks
late and are very unlikely to ever care about changing to another one_

Exactly. And that's why I'm right. Facebook isn't a generic solution, like
email. People don't use it for business, for example. It also has a strong
branding and part of that is in terms of "coolness". Now it is something that
your mom uses. How long do you think the early adopters -- students and
teenagers -- are going to put up with that before it gets organically
rebranded as uncool? And, as we know from the Diffusion of Innovation, if the
head of the snake dies (the early adopters go away or go somewhere else en
masse), it's only a matter of time before it, well, becomes MySpace.

 _Google ... trying everything and excelling at nothing_

That's it. Hot startups are like child stars. If all the idolization seeps
into their ego, you can guarantee they'll be shooting porn by 20. Why? Because
they think they're entitled to what they have, but what they have _will
change_. And their sense of entitlement means they won't take the change
seriously and even as they watch it go away, they'll just assume it will come
back. Google has a serious case of the egos. It doesn't matter how many people
love them now -- they don't stand a chance.

------
paulnelligan
For posterity sake, I'd better answer my own questions:

\- yes, unfortunately we're no longer building for the web, we're building for
the facebook and google platforms, and it pisses me off no end, because more
innovation is required. I only hope Google open up their API completely so
that developers like me can build some cool shit on their platform

\- energy crisis, I have no clue. But I really hope so. Climate crisis, same.

\- Flying cars, seriously!
[http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/109522/20110207/flying-
cars-...](http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/109522/20110207/flying-cars-
terrafugia.htm) ... will probably never 'take off' though.

\- Quantum Computers. I can only wildly imagine some crazy mind-reading
computer who has nothing but benevolence and love for me so that I may be
hooked up to it's matrix and suck on it's glorious god-like nipple. Google be
thy name. Don't bloody wake me up!

------
bartonfink
I expect that, in 20 years, self-driving cars will be just about to "cross the
chasm", so to speak. I see them roughly analogous to what the Leaf and other
electric cars are today. I don't think these cars will fly, but I do think
that they will be on the cusp of mass-market consumption.

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mbuckbee
Before there is a rise in flying cars I think we're going to see the gradual
evolution of driving aids (adaptive cruise control and automated emergency
braking) into structured automated driving (there is a set lane on the highway
that while you're in it your car drives for you) to eventual full on automated
driving (you get in the car and say "grocery store" and it drives while you
watch the latest episode of 'Ow! My Balls!').

------
brudgers
Less energy use, smaller form factors, and mobility - i.e. just a continuation
of the transistor revolution.

