

Ask HN: Let's predict. What's your prediction for 2014? - sideproject

ok, so as usual, bloggers are starting to write their usual &quot;My prediction for 2014&quot; pieces.<p>e.g. 
http:&#x2F;&#x2F;readwrite.com&#x2F;2013&#x2F;12&#x2F;20&#x2F;mobile-smartwatches-google-glass-apple-android-ios-2014-predictions<p>Wanted to do something similar here and ask what others think 2014 will bring in startups&#x2F;tech industry.<p>Let&#x27;s keep it simple by only writing ONE prediction at a time. I&#x27;m thinking it might be slightly easier to discuss, share links and vote.
======
ambiate
SSD prices down to 25c/GB by 14Q3.

The advent of the Steam cube will probably increase sales for microatx/itx (I
want to shove $2,400 in hardware in a portable computer too).

Academics will still rely on Perl instead of GPUs.

Potentially the rebirth of engines. There has been a large amount of media
revolving around electric vehicles and conventional engine waste. Sometimes,
media can get the cogs flowing for the right person.

A large amount of misinformed HR reps during the reenrollment period!

144hz monitors utilizing Nvidia's GSYNC will be a huge game changer for gamers
(aha). Variable refresh will probably get us extremely close of the beauty of
the good ole 22inch CRT monitors.

Rift will hopefully be the iPhone of VR. Not the 'everyone needs one', but the
'this is something you have to see to believe' factor. We have been stale for
a bit on the electronic wow factor.

------
swalsh
The consumer version of the oculus rift, and google goggles are released
ultimately overshadowing the "smart watches" that are receiving much greater
publicity. The rift is underwhelming for some who expected much greater
things, but to most realize its the first step in something really bit. Google
goggles on the other hand is a much greater disappointment as people were
expecting true augmented reality, and received a head wearable camera and a
box that tells them they got a new email. Still there's enough potential in
there that tech nerds are excited.

Bitcoin has a yearly bubble, but the underpinnings of a possible successor are
born (but hardly noticed) that tries to embrace modern economic principals.

~~~
benburleson
Just to be clear, you mean Google Glass, right?

~~~
swalsh
Shoot, yes I did.

------
tokenadult
My prediction for 2014 is that at the end of 2014, someone on Hacker News will
ask for predictions of 2015. Have a happy new year.

------
TheCondor
A BRIC country will announce and maybe release a serious Intel processor
competitor for the desktop and server based on a 64bit ARM design.

It will be a serious effort to move their technology stack off American
technology, not an Arm on a blade type play

------
swombat
Blackberry is sold off in pieces or otherwise goes out of business. We see the
last of the Blackberry phones - a failure like all the ones they've released
recently.

~~~
highace
I actually quite like the Blackberry hardware (with the qwerty keyboards). But
the software is absolutely dire, they should try putting Android on it.

~~~
derekp7
Yeah, I would really love to get a device that embodies the keyboard-version
of the original Android prototypes.

------
benjaminwootton
I was having a chat with someone this morning and said that I thought stream
processing would be big in 2014 in response to reactive programming [1].

I'm checking out Kafka [2] and Storm [3] over the holidays in preperation for
this.

[1]
[https://www.coursera.org/course/reactive](https://www.coursera.org/course/reactive)
[2] [https://kafka.apache.org/](https://kafka.apache.org/) [3] [http://storm-
project.net/](http://storm-project.net/)

~~~
chollida1
Probably a good call.

CEP (Complex Event Processing) has been used in trading systems since about
2004, earliest I've heard of. By about 2008, it was widely in use in the
industry.

It's now considered an old technology, meaning it has to be part of your tool
box but no longer gives you any competitive advantage.

I don't see it going away, but the biggest problems with it now is its speed.

Solve how to you guarantee that a signal will flow through your system in a
guaranteed time and you can make some money.

Or put another way, trading systems are often like video games. Just like how
video games engines limit the time an engine has to draw a frame a trading
system will limit the time it takes to make a buy/sell decision based on an
input.

TL/DR CEP or streaming architectures often don't guarentee all rules will be
run over an input in a guarenteed time frame.

------
raldi
Imgur gets acquired, either by Yahoo, Reddit, or someone with reason to hurt
those companies by keeping Imgur out of their hands.

For example, imagine what a jumpstart it would be for the new Digg.

------
LarryMade2
Microsoft is going to live in "interesting times" in 2014 after XP support
expires in April. A lot of owners will demand Windows 7 computers over Windows
8. No one will be happy.

------
applecore
Price of a bitcoin rises to $10,000 by June 2014.

------
dccoolgai
Apple releases their next shocking piece of innovation: a tablet or phone that
is two inches larger or smaller than the last one they released with number++.

~~~
marquis
And makes an attempt to force all OSX developers to deliver via the App store.

------
zalew
The year of Linux desktop.

~~~
benjaminwootton
1998 called. They want their prediction back!

~~~
waps
This prediction seems to have limited chance of success :

[http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22linux%20desktop%22](http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22linux%20desktop%22)

(sad, really)

~~~
marcuskaz
I don't think people who want to switch or run Linux does a search for "linux
desktop" more likely they've heard of some and do a search for that.

For comparison:
[http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22linux%20desktop%22...](http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22linux%20desktop%22%2C%20ubuntu&cmpt=q)

~~~
sentenza
My first thought: What normal person uses the word "Desktop"?

It doesn't sound weird in the context of "Year of the linux desktop", because
we are so used to that meme, but otherwise, the word "desktop" seems old-
fashioned. See also[1].

[1]
[http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Desktop&cmpt=q](http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Desktop&cmpt=q)

------
raldi
Twitch will get their shit together and reach a point where, from a technical
perspective, storing and watching video game recordings works as well there as
it does on YouTube.

Then they'll start using their tremendous influence on the gaming world, and
their willingness to offer a UX tuned precisely for this one purpose, to
actually convince a significant share of the gaming (and game-watching)
community to make the switch.

This, combined with the massively-underappreciated size of the video-game-
watching community, will make them a must-have acquisition for either YouTube
or someone who wants to hurt YouTube.

~~~
mcintyre1994
I wonder what happens to the Youtube/Twitch dynamic after a huge amount of
video game content got claimed on Youtube. It seems that if they can do it to
Youtube they'll be able to do it to Twitch if them creators just move there.

------
SimonPStevens
Bitcoin to collapse to under $0.1, or lower It's just a pyramid scheme anyway.

------
mcintyre1994
Apple releases the iWatch marketed as a fitness tool (like readwrite said),
flops because it's not a perfect watch replacement in other situations,
analysts claim Apple is dying, Apple makes record profit and ends the year as
the most valuable company.

Probably led by Samsung, Android dominates a product category that probably
doesn't exist yet by the end of the year. Readwrite are probably right about
Samsung taking Android 64-bit first, although they probably won't release
anything on Android with > 4gb RAM next year (but will probably be first to
market with one in 2015).

Moonshot prediction: Bitcoin explodes on rumours of Amazon adoption, only for
Amazon to create their own virtual/cryptocurrency. Bitcoin falls apart and
Amazon's coin sees more transaction value almost immediately. This is
seriously unlikely, but I've seen speculation about what happens if Amazon
adopts, and don't think people consider that they'd probably prefer to
control.

------
adnam
First crowd-sourced politician.

~~~
sentenza
Was already tried here in Germany (Pirate Party), and failed miserably. Turns
out, having the raging party yelling at you at all times leads to quasi-
instant burnout.

------
SimonPStevens
Bitcoin to reach $10000 usd. It increased 10 times in 2013, so why not again.

~~~
jraines
Simpsons' funny take on why extrapolating from past results can be bad:
[https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BcCWP8wCIAA4LQw.jpg](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BcCWP8wCIAA4LQw.jpg)

~~~
SimonPStevens
Nice. This is mainly the reason I find kurzweil's predictions hard to swallow.
Although he essentially argues that a series of s-curves for each separate
technology add together to form never ending exponential growth overall. Not
sure I buy it. I mean you could look at the music industry growth as a series
of s-curves for each genre, which have produced good overall growth, but then
that growth has now stalled.

------
TelmoMenezes
War on Bitcoin.

------
badclient
Google+ boss Vic Gundotra will be fired.

------
stevenj
Snapchat is acquired for $4+ billion.

~~~
antr
2015 prediction: Snapchat acquirer writes-off 95% of the +$4 bn price tag ;-)

------
waterlesscloud
Amazon delivery drones are demonstrated in limited, controlled tests.

If I'm only getting one prediction, I'll make it my wildest. ;-)

~~~
petervandijck
That's your wildest? :) The sun's polarity switches and NYC is drowned by a
giant wave.

------
mildtrepidation
The only one I ever find reliable is "more of the same." It's a pretty safe
bet, regardless of what you're trying to predict.

------
Jach
[http://predictionbook.com](http://predictionbook.com) is a better place to do
this...

------
SimonPStevens
And now for my real prediction.....

VIrtual reality headsets (either Oculus, or whoever) go mainstream and become
the future of gaming. If one console gets a device released significantly
ahead of the other (or even exclusively via some deal) will win this
generations console war.

------
lion0
My prediction is that I will buy a new laptop, probably a MacBook Pro 13
retina. :)

~~~
benburleson
In 2014, Apple continues to sell overpriced hardware.

------
adnam
Snowden comes in from the cold, while Assange stalemate ends in a dramatic
way.

~~~
raldi
Your Snowden prediction could be interpreted a number of ways. Which one do
you mean?

------
raldi
Facebook releases another phone, and this time, it actually does pretty well.

------
__alexs
A non-CALEA US sponsored hardware backdoor is discovered in actual equipment.

------
anuraj
Retail Indoor Locationing (aka iBeacons) and their applications in stores will
become mainstream. We are moving towards the intelligent store that talks back
to you and offer personalized service.

~~~
dchichkov
Retail Indoor Locationing (aka iBeacons) and their applications in stores will
not become mainstream.

------
raldi
SF's tech industry organizes some sort of campaign to get residents to realize
that the solution to high rent is not to burn effigies of corporate shuttles,
but rather to build more housing.

------
raldi
The next Nest product will be a home security system. If you already own Nest
thermostats or smoke detectors, their motion sensors will do double-duty as
security alarms.

------
paulhodge
We'll start seeing new, stricter laws about when you're allowed to
photograph/film others and share those recordings online. (in reaction to
Google Glass & co)

------
rmason
Microsoft will introduce a phone with a keyboard and hardened security to grab
some of Blackberry’s fading market share.

------
arxpoetica
Human aging is reversed.

------
adfm
Contextual Signaling gets noticed, dESP common by 2018.

------
darksuiyoken
Cryptocurrency.

------
joshavant
2014 will finally be the year for Linux.

------
nmeofthestate
iPhone 6.

