

Geographers Had Calculated 81% Chance That Osama Was in Abbottabad - benwerd
http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2011/05/geographers-had-calculated-81.html

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demallien
Woah! Massively misleading title - the paper actually predicts that he was in
a town called Parachinar, about 400km to the west of Abbottabad. The 81%
figure was simply based on a geographic decay calculation - that is, it is a
figure that represents the probability that Bin Laden was x km from his last
known location in the Tora Bora region. The larger x is, the lower the
probability.

Parachinar is just the other side of the Pakastani-Afghan border, next to Tora
Bora, about 50km away in fact. The real location was much further

