
2011 Predictions - pelle
http://brianbreslin.com/2011-predictions/
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yan
These are all good and all, but does anyone see a reason for the "Likelihood:
Very likely" below each prediction? Every single one just says "likely" in
different wording.

Is it to make readers more agreeable? Is it to note authority?

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brianbreslin
I was told I should put my level of confidence in each one by a friend. I had
originally skipped that.

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gwern
If you've put enough thought into them to have a confidence level, why not
give a specific probability? Then you will be able to see (to some extent) how
you are poorly calibrated - overconfident, underconfident, etc.

For example, I have a ton of judged predictions on
<http://predictionbook.com/users/gwern> so you can see my problem - low self-
esteem. (I expect to take some losses when all my 2010 predictions expire in a
few days, but the overall trend of underconfidence will remain.)

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trotsky
Mac App store to do $1B in 2011? Seems pretty unlikely to me. Looks like the
mobile store in June '10 had done about ~1.3B in total since launch [1]. A key
difference here is choice and installed base - every iPhone app purchase has
to go through Apple's store, and nobody had a big existing library of software
they had purchased for the platform. I'm sure apple will do quite well with
their Mac store, but the dynamics are different enough that I wouldn't expect
them to soundly crush the mobile store in their first year - let alone an
incomplete calendar year.

[1]
[http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/breaking_down_apples_ap...](http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/breaking_down_apples_appstore_stats_infographic.php)

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brianbreslin
My guess is based on the fact apps will retail for more than iOS apps, so the
gross sales will hit $1B quicker. Think $20/app vs $2 though iOS apps probably
benefit from impulse shopping a lot

~~~
trotsky
What's the size of the OS X software market in total? Guesstimating* , it
looks like it was somewhere like $5B-$8B in 2008. Strip out OS sales, large
licensees, unsupported environments, unsupported regions and all non-SOHO
business sales and what do you figure is left? $2B-$3B maybe? Hard for me to
believe that Apple is going to be able to take a 50% chunk out of retail and
direct sales in the first year, especially on the high end packages like
office or photoshop.

* [http://www.bsa.org/country/Public%20Policy/~/media/Files/Pol...](http://www.bsa.org/country/Public%20Policy/~/media/Files/Policy/Security/General/sw_factsfigures.ashx)

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glhaynes
I agree with you that $1B seems optimistic for 2011, but consider also that
the Mac App Store may increase the total number of apps sold, perhaps
drastically. I certainly expect I'll buy more Mac apps when they're more
easily discoverable, more easily managed, and one-click-purchaseable.

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disruptivetech
Thanks for those predictions. Futurology, whether extrapolating trends or
trying to predict disruptions is pretty tricky. I've got a couple of old books
from the 1920's which attempt to show what the future holds. Here are some of
those images [scanned in and from AM LOW]:

[http://picasaweb.google.com/brettdonovan/AMLOW#5471538663829...](http://picasaweb.google.com/brettdonovan/AMLOW#5471538663829616354)

It would seem that one can extrapolate rather well. Particularly well on the
abundant communications, however as always - the flying car is out of reach.

~~~
treeface
Presumably the faucet hose recoils automatically? Wow that really IS
futuristic.

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gwern
1\. <http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2016>

2\. <http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2017>

3\. <http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2018>

4\. <http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2019>

5\. <http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2020>

6\. <http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2021>

7\. <http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2022>

8\. <http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2023>

9\. <http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2024>

10\. <http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2025>

(Also, looks like Brian forgot to ever do a wrap-up for his 2008 predictions -
<http://brianbreslin.com/2008-predictions/> and
<http://brianbreslin.com/category/predictions/> )

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brianbreslin
this is a follow up to <http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1983670>

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3pt14159
There already have been youtube millionaires. The auto-tune guys, who netted
500k on the "hide your kids, hide your wife" song and much more from the rest
of their tracks.

Also, Jon la Joie is up there too, as well as that girl who talks about 17
year old clothes and make up.

~~~
brianbreslin
I should have specified. I was thinking $ millionaire from youtube ad rev
share, nothing else. autotune guys did bank already.

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pan69
Does anyone have any links to 2010 predictions of this kind?

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kenjackson
<http://brianbreslin.com/10-predictions-for-2010/>

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kin
All of these are predictions of movements of existing products, which are
interesting. But, any opinion or predictions for new products such as Chrome
OS? Google Me? Emerging startups like Diaspora or Frid.ge trying to take out
Facebook? Social gaming skipping Facebook and doing something revolutionary?

~~~
brianbreslin
I'll make a prediction right now on several of those: diaspora and fridge
won't make it out of super niche.

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glhaynes
Apple has said that the Mac App Store will be available in early January for
Snow Leopard. Wouldn't be surprised to see it be "even better" on Lion once it
eventually ships, but Snow Leopard is definitely supported.

~~~
brianbreslin
I think a lot of people are still on regular leopard or older versions of OS
X. So it would make sense for apple to flood the market with Lion once its
out. Lion will have a tighter app store integration for sure.

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thinkcomp
Mobile payments will start to be popular. Obopay and Bling Nation will be left
behind.

