
Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball? - emamd
http://graphics.latimes.com/powerball-simulator/
======
jonpaine
A lottery ticket doesn't buy a chance, it buys a pleasant daydream. It buys a
mental escape hatch. It buys the 'what would I do' game for another week.

A movie costs $12 in a theater for 2 hrs of enjoyment. A lottery ticket costs
$1 for a week of intermittent enjoyment. For certain segments of the
population, a lottery ticket is a downright bargain.

Math problems are easy. Real world problems are difficult.

As an aside, it's so important that people who care enough about a social
challenge like the lottery/gambling addiction are able to find the ACTUAL root
cause to address. I'm not blaming the LA Times. I LOVE content like this - and
not all content needs a purpose. BUT - if the purpose was supposed to be
helping people who play the lottery see their folly, this probably isn't the
right tack.

~~~
ikeboy
What do you think of
[http://lesswrong.com/lw/hl/lotteries_a_waste_of_hope/](http://lesswrong.com/lw/hl/lotteries_a_waste_of_hope/)
and
[http://lesswrong.com/lw/hm/new_improved_lottery/](http://lesswrong.com/lw/hm/new_improved_lottery/)?

~~~
ChicagoBoy11
I don't know what he thinks of it, but everyone should give these two pieces
(especially the second one) a read. I was absolutely ready to hate it given
the title of the first one (I, too, am in the "buying a dream" rationality
camp), but the second piece especially was just too damn good.

~~~
scotty79
We have lotteries that give you this hope over period of time (albeit
shorter).

It's radio lotteries. You send them text (paid). And they pick few people to
call back and to inform them that they won.

------
baldeagle
Isn't this the wrong problem? It lets you enter X dollars, then it simulates
if you played $1 on X numbers of sequential drawings... which would have
terrible odds. Wouldn't it be better to simulate X numbers on Y draws, which
would lead you to know the number of times/people would have to play to win.

I don't think probability is communicative, is it?

EDIT: It would also be neat to simulate the number of winners you would have
to share the prize with, based on numbers entered in the form from users.

~~~
QuotedForTruth
Its not exactly the same but its pretty close when the chances are so low
anyways.

Playing 10,000 times in 1 drawing gives you the probability of winning the
jackpot:

0.00003422297813=10000/292201338

Playing 10,000 times in 10,000 drawings gives you the probability of winning
the jackpot:

0.00003422239258=1-((292201338-1)/292201338)^10000

The difference gets more significant if you play more. For 10 million plays
its:

.0342 vs .0336

If you play only 100 times the probability of a jackpot is the same to 7
significant digits.

-edit I put it on $1M and let it run. I hit the 5 numbers, $1M prize, at some point around $150k spent.

~~~
bradleyjg
If you play quickdraw you could get the same numbers twice. I think with that
caveat the odds should be the same.

~~~
ethbro
To be fair, wouldn't the odds of QuickDraw picking the same numbers twice
(even if there weren't a built in limit against that) be the same odds as
winning the jackpot in the first place?

~~~
QuotedForTruth
Only if you are only picking two sets of numbers. If you are doing 10k sets,
the last set has a 9999/292M chance of being the same numbers as one of the
other sets.

~~~
bradleyjg
Right, that's the birthday problem.

------
codazoda
I started with their $100 "gift", then moved to a paycheck, then to my annual
salary. By the time I was in that deep I decided what the heck and got a
second mortgage on my house. TIL I have a gambling problem.

~~~
pc86
Don't worry, your luck is bound to turn around. Any day now.

------
jdhawk
Buy a $2 ticket for entertainment, not "investment."

Spend 10 minutes imagining what you'd do with $496M. It might be fun.

~~~
jaynos
Join lottery pool at work. Might lose $2, but won't have to kill myself if
everyone at the office wins and I have to show up everyday remembering that
fact.

~~~
redcalculator
I find that it's more enjoyable to not join the pool and then buy myself a
lunch when the participants inevitably lose. I make sure that everyone knows
that it's a celebratory lunch. And then I wonder why I don't have any friends.

~~~
willis77
I'd like to see the mathematicians ascribe an expected value on the bitter,
icy glare of your envious colleagues as you eat that sweet victory lunch.

------
glenntzke
I'm genuinely surprised by the popular opinion that people play lotto only to
win a nearly impossible jackpot. I rarely play, but when I do it's during the
big frenzies like this just for kicks but with decent chances making my money
back with a bit extra. I spent $3 (powerball single + multiplier). I won $4
last night by getting just the multiplier right (1:39 odds).

The Mega Millions games has 1:14.71 odds of winning. I'll play both Powerball
and MM once or twice a year and my loose accounting on my winnings lands me
around +$4. Basically nothing over the years but I have enjoyed the frenzy.

I don't think I fall into "stupid tax" territory and I _do_ understand the
probability of a jackpot win. I just don't care about it and enjoy the little
rush of the chance.

------
maxerickson
This is a fascinating sentence:

 _While the large jackpot prize may be tempting, it 's extremely hard to have
that one ticket in 292 million._

I think my favorite part is that _extremely hard_ isn't a very accurate
description of how unlikely it is.

~~~
WA
This image removed any temptation for gambling once and for all, because after
all, a 1:292,201,338 chance really isn't anything one can grasp easily:

A car goes from San Diego to New Orleans and the driver throws a quarter out
of his window at some point in time.

Now you drive the same route. You get the chance to stop once on this route.
If your front tire comes to a halt at the exact same spot of that quarter, you
hit the jackpot.

How likely does that feel?

~~~
kamaal
Very likely if 292,201,338 took the challenge.

People do win lotteries at times, don't they?

~~~
WA
Sure, someone will probably be stuck in a traffic jam right next to the
quarter at some point, but does that help anyone to win this challenge on
purpose? :)

------
worried_citizen
I recently purchased a OneRNG trng and decided to give it a chance at guessing
the right number with its quantum-noise super powers. Reading from it
overnight produced 24 million guesses and no winner. Though several were just
one number off. Too bad so sad.

I'm really curious what RNG the registers use when people say "let the
computer guess for me". I'm pretty sure they don't all have a TRNG installed
on the circuit...

~~~
mulmen
Is there reason to believe that a TRNG would somehow select numbers with a
better chance of winning than any other method?

I can see the method impacting the number of dollars you win but surely any
valid set of numbers has the same chance to win as any other.

It's not like your TRNG is actually emulating the behavior of the balls in the
machine.

~~~
worried_citizen
I can't say if a TRNG has a better chance, but I don't think I'm leaping too
far to say a broken, predictable RNG has a _worse_ chance of winning.

~~~
mbreese
Maybe worse over the long term, but wouldn't you have the same odds for any
given draw.

------
hebleb
I think most of us realize that they're not going to win, but when the jackpot
becomes a national event every 6 months or whatever, there's usually some joy
in buying a ticket anyway

~~~
oniMaker
There's more joy in giving $2 to a person who needs it.

~~~
hebleb
Those things aren't mutually exclusive

~~~
oniMaker
Unless your goal is to maximize joy.

------
aus_
Free YC 2016 application:

Build website to crowdsource $292,201,338. Buy all the lotto tickets. Pay back
investors 150% of their investment. Make ~ $69.5M.

(assuming lotto tickets are a $1) (someone else can figure out the break even
point after taxes)

~~~
dreaminvm
Would not work unless it ballooned into 10 figures. Lump sum taxes would take
most of the gains away and that assumes you are the only winner.

~~~
woobar
And the advertised Jackpot isa 30 years annuity. The lump sum is ~62% of the
advertised Jackpot before taxes.

~~~
Wingman4l7
Used to be, the lump sum wasn't offered -- you had to sell your legal rights
to the annuity to an investor to get it. You could still do this -- perhaps
have open bidding on it; might net more than 62%.

------
mmanfrin
Question: With a jackpot of $800mil and the chances of winning 1 in ~300mil,
could you not buy 300mil tickets? (Excepting, of course, the risk that someone
else wins and the cost of taxes).

~~~
jbondeson
The cash payout is ~$500 million, and after taxes you _may_ end up with $309
million.

So, yeah, probably not a winning strategy.

~~~
nandhp
Well, it sounds like you'd be at least $9 million richer than you were before.
And gambling losses are tax deductable, up to the amount of your winnings, so
if I understand tax deductions correctly wouldn't you be taxed only on about
$200 million of the cash payout?

[https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc419.html](https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc419.html)
[https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tools/tax-
tips/Taxes-101/Can...](https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tools/tax-
tips/Taxes-101/Can-You-Claim-Gambling-Losses-on-Your-Taxes-/INF14370.html)

------
cableshaft
The comment on the site where some people play when it's a high payout more
for wanting to participate in the cultural event (i.e. go see Star Wars in
theaters) than the expectation that they'll win makes a lot of sense.

I think that's mainly why I get a few tickets sometimes when it gets super
high, even though I know my chances of winning are significantly worse and my
chances of winning at all are almost nothing.

~~~
Splines
More people buying doesn't change your chances - it potentially lowers your
payout.

Makes me wonder if getting more people to play higher jackpots ends up evening
things out in the end.

~~~
Vraxx
It may even out from an expected value for the purchaser point of view, but
the profits keep climbing for Powerball the more people that hop on the
bandwagon.

------
lotsoflumens
The awful paradox of lotteries is that every week somebody wins, but every
week that will not be you.

------
onion2k
I ran the $1000 simulation, and then just before running a $100,000 simulation
I stopped myself because I'd be distressed if my simulated numbers came up and
I didn't actually get the prize.

I'm bad at maths.

------
Zikes
Here's some interesting insight into the random numbers behind this toy, if
you're on Chrome: [http://v8project.blogspot.com/2015/12/theres-mathrandom-
and-...](http://v8project.blogspot.com/2015/12/theres-mathrandom-and-then-
theres.html)

------
rdtsc
The obvious equivalent for the HN crowd:

"Here is $50k. Now quit your job and start a start-up"

Difficulty bonus -- startup idea is generated by a Markov chain and could be
anything -- "Uber for dogs", "Taxidermied pets as drones" etc.

~~~
guelo
1\. The odds of succeeding at a startup are a lot better than 292 million to
1.

2\. You get a paycheck, even if it's less than market rate.

3\. It's fun and exciting to use someone else's money to try to come up with a
new business type.

~~~
pcmaffey
4\. You're much more likely to learn and grow professionally tackling problems
you likely wouldn't otherwise face (or at least at a higher rate).

~~~
pc86
4A. Buying a $2 lottery ticket is faster.

------
JayJee
Sooo I hit the $50,000 after only $2,000. Apparently that is almost 1 in a
million. Scary

~~~
neogodless
Whoa, I'm still working on spending $100k...

Spent $62,630 Won $5,793 Win/loss $56,837

Hovering consistently just below losing 90 cents on each dollar.

------
nikolay
I'm sure if you put $100 in stocks, you get much better odds to make a
fortune!

------
charlieflowers
I clicked "play $100" 4 times and lost. So I clicked "bet paycheck" and
entered $10,000 (no I don't really make that much).

And boom, I won $1,000,000. So I guess I should start playing the lottery?

(I suspect there's a bug).

~~~
santaclause33
I am in the hole 250k

~~~
scotty79
500k down the drain

91% of invested money lost

------
sandworm101
Is this an article or an attempt to harvest paycheck information?

~~~
baldeagle
If it is, it is going to be skewed. I just put in $292,201,338 (the 1 in ....
odds for the jackpot).

~~~
Vraxx
And funny enough this doesn't guarantee that you'll even hit the jackpot in
that total. Man the lottery can be fun!

(to be clear I'm not implying that you said that total will guarantee a
jackpot win)

~~~
baldeagle
I suspect the simulator will run until well after the actual drawing (it just
doesn't play fast enough to burn through that much cash).

~~~
jonknee
And it chooses new winning numbers every time so you likely will never win.

------
juddlyon
I saw the headline and thought it was a startup parable with the $100
representing VC money and $800M a huge exit. I need to be less cynical!

------
dplgk
I better approach is to pick numbers and then show how those numbers would
have never hit a jackpot since lottery's inception.

------
dakr
Given the long odds, I find that just imagining winning the lottery is still
fun and decidedly cheaper than the real thing.

------
elwell
If only real life had chrome dev tools console such to modify global vars like
"winTotal = 100000000".

~~~
csours
Well, kinda:
[http://www.fox5ny.com/news/63367774-story](http://www.fox5ny.com/news/63367774-story)

------
scotty79
Little more than 90% of money lost. Still beats some of my stock market
investments.

------
ericfrederich
Here's the year 2016, can you make a site that works on mobile?

------
tortilla
I lost my entire paycheck.

------
HugoDaniel
I won!!

------
lintiness
yes we can!

------
ixtli
Lottery is a progressive tax on stupidity.

~~~
ssharp
That's a pretty reductive way of saying it.

~~~
ixtli
I agree though if you've worked in the casino industry as long as I have
there's precious few other ways to reason about what's going on in the minds
of people who don't understand gambler's fallacy.

------
MrKristopher
Spent $115,698 Won $10,598 Win/loss $-105,100 Balance $0

ROI: ~10%

~~~
blatherard
The ROI would be (10,598 - 115, 698) / 115,698 = ~-90%

