
Cyberpower crushes coup - rdl
https://medium.com/@thegrugq/cyberpower-crushes-coup-b247f3cca780#.zhc8scqqo
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JPKab
Very interesting write-up.

My concern with this coup is that the results of it failing are going to be
worse for the Turkish people than if it had succeeded.

[https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/4t4ke5/pro_erdogan_is...](https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/4t4ke5/pro_erdogan_islamists_torture_and_lynch/d5evqol)

~~~
CommanderData
My Turkish friend told me the Turks have been aware of attempts of destabilize
their country. It was mostly the general population that came out and stopped
the military coup.

The Turks don't want another Syria or Libia where western backed rebels have
made those places no-go countries. Turkey at least has a very friendly and
thriving tourism eco system.

~~~
Pica_soO
Yet they voted the same type of guy/party who ru(i)ned syria or libia to
power?

And enough of that evil western/jew outsiders scapegoats conspiracy theory's
to avoid the realization that a whole culture produces failing governments on
a regular basis.

Those rebels are mainly backed up by local powers- Saudi arabia, Iran and yes
turkey.

Something in these cultures is unable to keep institutions and democracy
alive. And the scapegoats all sound so old, shall i list them? The western
media, decadence, capitalism, socialism, christianity, judaism, budhism,
sports, TV, music, the internet the list of evildoers is endless. They where
all eliminated in experiments, and the evidence is there, that they are not
the things holding these societys back.

Why not for once, own these mistakes and realize all those creepy crawly's
from outside are just fleas biting a already diseased dog.

And yes, its everywhere the same symptom, in every country that becomes
islamic. And the deflection-method that the social reality produced by a
cultural system are not connected to the very system, has gone out of the
window too by the way.

Here is the question wanting a answer:

What in these culturs undermines institutions to work correctly?

What destroys the ability of judges to oppose governments?

What creates this wish to go back towards a perfect time- and time where the
lack of modern medicine would have killed half of those wishing back to these
times?

What undermines the concept of a human live being sacred?

I hate cheering for the military here, but they released turkey back into
democracy several times. Islamic dictators did this nowhere.

<edited to be less inflamatory.. i really want this discussed>

~~~
ohyes
Poverty, lack of education, and lack of opportunity would be my trio of
undermining traits. It's a lot harder to convince someone with a 9-5 job, a
family and a mortgage to overthrow the government.

If we think of this as _Islamic nationalism_ , it fits the pattern where
things get really bad for common people, and _someone_ rallies them against a
perceived _other_ in order to consolidate his own power.

Be wary of anyone who wants to blame an out-group for your economic issues, be
it Muslims, Mexicans, infidels, Jews, gypsies, homosexuals, etc. (Why I'm
afraid of Trump).

I think sitting at our cushy desk jobs in the west it is hard to empathize
with the real hardship people have been experiencing in that region for a long
time.

I have no knowledge of the causal direction here, honestly. I think there's an
assumption by some vocal pundits that it's Islam -> holy war -> poverty.

I don't think that's clear. More likely it's poverty -> malleable population
-> some cause promises to make things good again (Like they were in the
caliphate, like they were in any fabled past) -> people believe it and fight
for it. There's historical precedent for this.

(Which of course exacerbates the poverty because of wanton destruction of
capital/infrastructure, people not being able to leave home, intelligentsia
flight, etc). Eventually you get some version of an autocracy. The type of
autocracy is to some extent irrelevant, although theocratic autocracies appear
to be disproportionately brutal...

~~~
Pica_soO
Other parts of the world had the same loop and broke out of it. Money exists,
and even poverty is not universal to the region. Why is there no middle-
eastern- tiger state? Lack of Education is unconvincing, the Internet is now
available for 20 years. Education is in parts of the region actively rejected
as western influence. Late-Medieval Peasants where poor. Yet, in the citys the
Renaissance could happen. There is not even this "aristocratic" attempt for
improvement by "showing off" intellectual achievements or art showing in Saudi
Arabia. No "big familys" trying to outdo one another with the fame of there
universitys. And they could have done so.

[http://www.theatlantic.com/video/index/491501/will-the-
middl...](http://www.theatlantic.com/video/index/491501/will-the-middle-east-
ever-be-secular/)

~~~
safeignorance
Israel is a relatively rich middle-eastern democracy. Jordan should probably
count too (it has its problems, yes, but so do most of the tiger states).
Qatar too, to a much lesser extent and esp. if you prioritize wealth/stability
over democracy per se. And Saudi Arabia is at least stable and wealthy, if not
ticking off the other boxes.

But it's also worth pointing out that outside of the west and regions where
the local population was so thoroughly decimated as to make the population
effectively European (e.g., US and Canada), free market secular democracies
are pretty rare.

~~~
Pica_soO
Actually Iran and Turkey would be on my list for close but not yet "Tiger
States"\- Israel falls under "displaced, but Europe", even in the DVD-Release
market.

I know some pretty awesome Pakistani programmers- but they all left there
home-country to live somewhere else. They had some "doing well" family
background though.

If poverty eats it all, via corruption, would it help to help founders in
these states to hide there (relative) "wealth", and the existence of there
company/products? Could IP be protected from illegal seezing of governments,
by market pressure? Is that even possible - a stealth startup?

------
douche
Ataturk must be rolling over in his grave. It's a damned shame that the coup
didn't succeed - Turkey has been one of the few reasonably successful Muslim
countries at Westernizing, brought about because of the colossal failures of
the old Ottoman Empire. Erdogan's backsliding into the same theocratic-tinged
islamist government is especially troubling for a NATO member, and one that is
slated to join the EU eventually.

~~~
joesmo
I hope that the EU will stop all proceedings on this now that it's crystal
clear Turkey cannot be a candidate. You can't have an EU country that can't
even govern itself as part of the EU. Turkey is neither free nor stable. It's
arguably not even in Europe. If the coup had succeeded, maybe it could
eventually have been a country worthy of EU membership, but I'm pretty sure
Erdogan is not going to lean back towards liberty after these incidents and
make the country even worse. Not to mention the extreme unpopularity of this
idea in Europe.

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powertower
Some political analysts are saying that this coup was staged by Erdogan to get
rid of the remaining opposition.

Basically the theory is that there was a very weak plan in effect that the
government knew about, and helped move it along (to get it started). While
being completely prepared to deal with it.

[http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-16/erdogans-counter-
co...](http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-16/erdogans-counter-coup-begins-
turkey-purges-2745-judges-prosecutors-arrests-hundreds)

~~~
calibraxis
Another possibility is "he was about to do a mass purge of military & judges,
& some of the military revolted in desperation".
([https://twitter.com/davidgraeber/status/754417469641617412](https://twitter.com/davidgraeber/status/754417469641617412))

Could also be a hybrid: anyone in power in Turkey who pisses off enough people
would expect a coup at any point, and therefore not only protect against it,
but have a few ideas on how to greatly benefit. Like Saddam Hussein after
failed coups.

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DanielBMarkham
In the age of the internet, you can't simply act when the leaders are outside
the country. It's far too easy to rouse the populace from wherever you are.
You have to have physical possession of the political leadership -- ideally
the top 3-5 people (as many top folks as the average person could easily
identify with)

For a NATO-trained military, this was a horrible coup. It was so bad that I
seriously wonder if it's not a false flag operation. I doubt it, but I wonder.

The NATO allies have a real mess on their hands. If the people of Turkey truly
support an endless reign of a single party that's slowly causing more and more
destabilization in the region, and is purging the courts and military of
educated, secular actors? This is about as bad as it gets long-term. Turkey is
slowly ditching Attaturk.

Oddly, because of the coup failure, assuming we have a Chavez-style
"democracy" now, the only recourse for social change is assassination. So
there'll be a bloody purge, and then social change, when it does happen (from
either outside or inside factors), will be much more bloody than this simple
coup this time around would have been.

This is all kinds of bad. Very sad for the people of Turkey.

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sremani
Even the though the Title is a bit more strong, the coup in turkey would be
successful if the entire army acted in unison, its a faction of army that
acted and they do not have good allies outside of it.

There are multiple factors here.

This is article does wear some rose colored glasses given the info sec
background of the author about the prominence of cyberpower (he may have a
point, but that is not primary point of failure).

Coups are possibly in modern day, take a look at Egypt.

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Animats
The medium that seems to have been most effective in getting people into the
streets was the public address systems of mosques. The traditional call to
prayer involved a muezzin in a minaret (that's what minarets on mosques are
for). But now mosques use a PA system, often with considerable audio power.
That's available for other purposes.

------
mmaunder
Great article from Grugq. He's main focus is opsec if you don't know who he
is.

I agree with most points and I'd say that simply cutting power to major cities
in Turkey during this event could have changed the outcome. It would have
provided a total communication blackout which would have neutralized social or
'cyber' as he calls it and would have created fear (more than pre internet
because we're so reliant on it) which would have put the military in a
position to 'restore order'.

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Zigurd
Considering it was the response of the people that was a large factor in the
coup failing, there's a lot of people here wishing the Deep State (a name
which was coined to describe the situation in Turkey) succeeded, against the
will of the people.

But on other days, people here are concerned about interlinked security and
military liaisons constituting a Deep State in their own countries, limiting
autonomy and democracy.

Have you considered that the rise of Islamism is in part caused by the fact
that secular military and security services in Islamic countries were coopted
to some degree, and that religious-based politics is harder to subvert in that
way?

~~~
internaut
You're right, it is an interesting conundrum.

~~~
Zigurd
What's sauce for the Turks is sauce for the Swedes. The Deep State in Sweden
seems to make their security services and at least some prosecutors an arm of
the US hunt for Assange. If you would support greater autonomy among US
allies, so they behave less like vassals, it's hard to support the Deep State
in Turkey.

Anyway, the Deep State has proven to be brittle, unreliable, and prone to
blowback.

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Theodores
Sometimes with big political events one sees something that just does not sit
right with one's overall understanding of events. If the events were a movie
or teevee series you would consider these things to be flaws in the plot.

Initially I was open to the idea that the coup was what the mainstream media
said it was, however, the internet has opened me up to the idea that the whole
thing was staged. This analysis better fits my earlier private observation
that things weren't quite what they seemed to be.

So, my thinking is that the new internet medium (new for coups) will work
against the 'President' because word on the street will be that he faked the
coup. This word on the street will be spread by internet and messenger chat.
If this becomes all pervasive then the 'President' really does end up getting
himself killed, his regime completely overthrown, game over. I also believe he
is one of those leaders that the U.S. can let go of, Turkey may be NATO but
the leader is interchangeable.

~~~
patates
Don't underestimate his supporters unwillingness to hear anything that doesn't
align with their beliefs.

He went against his best ally at the time, the fallout was both sides having
their secrets made public by the other. However, he increased his votes in the
next election as his supporters, with his leadership created a nation-wide
"OMG he's being framed please ignore all the evidence saying otherwise"
campaign.

He is also missing a university diploma without which he can't be the
president and the one he has used till the news broke has been shown to be
fake (dates, signature and department do not match). The government's TV
channel removed all the videos of him talking about his university days and no
news channel other than the ones who are labeled as "conspiracy theorists"
dared to publish anything about it.

And some of my friends still ask me if I want to go back to Turkey...

------
zebogen
So? It's not surprising that the internet played a significant role in the
coup. It plays a significant role in everything.

The only evidence I see here of "cyberpower" stopping the coup is Erdogan
having given a statement via FaceTime on television. Yes, that's amusing to
see, but it doesn't tell us anything about coups.

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T0T0R0
Cutting power? Hmmm, not so much.

Batteries, generators and wi-fi, coupled with low-power operation modes for
modern equipment, are going to be a quick answer to that strategy.

Cutting power will buy less than a week of opportunity, and piss off LOTS of
other ordinarily unmotivated, apolitical people.

~~~
j0rd
I was in TH for latest coup, took under a couple hours to happen, less than a
day to be enforced across country en mass.

And I live in the oppositions main stronghold when it happened.

Couple hours of lack of information is all you need, and is easiest way to cut
all with a single switch.

If your power cut out right now, how long till you have net? Your neighbors?
Your block? Weeks.

~~~
j0rd
YouTube video of start of TH 2014 coup.

Was rather brilliant to be honest.

[https://youtu.be/BWoKTEPF5nk](https://youtu.be/BWoKTEPF5nk)

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SideburnsOfDoom
This article (1) calls it "an attempt to grab the reins of a complex society
with the almost quaintly antediluvian tactics of seizing the state television
station and rolling some tanks on to the streets. It is as if the plotters had
never heard of social media"

so what would be modern coup tactics? The medium article mentions that there
are more communication channels that need seizing in order to be effective.

1)
[https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/16/turkey...](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/16/turkey-
coup-army-erdogan)

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ryanmarsh
Various Forms of Media Crush Coup

FTFY

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fatihpense
Lesson learned specific to Turkey: Don't try that again.

