
How California is changing its roads for self-driving cars - kjhughes
http://www.scpr.org/programs/take-two/2017/07/12/57901/california-is-changing-its-roads-for-self-driving/
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ghaff
The last paragraph is the most interesting one from a policy perspective.

"I have a concern about it increasing Vehicle Miles Traveled because I don’t
have the capacity to handle that. We already don’t have enough capacity for
the number of miles that are being driven today."

Of course, they'll increase miles traveled _even if_ they're not allowed to
drive around empty (which, of course, negates their use as taxis, etc.). Make
something easier/cheaper/etc. and you get more of it. I expect this is still
quite a ways off before it's a real question but it's going to be a problem
for areas where infrastructure is already close to the limit.

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kileywm
I agree that Vehicle Miles Traveled will likely increase, but it's important
to note just _when_ that increase will occur. I suspect that increases
occurring in off-peak hours can be handled by current infrastructure.

~~~
fenwick67
Even if this is correct, an overall increase would increase road wear
proportionally.

~~~
maxerickson
Weathering and heavy vehicles do most of the damage that is done to roads, so
increasing passenger vehicle miles won't increase wear proportionally.

I guess if shipping increases that would increase road wear. But that is also
an easy to justify tax.

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Fricken
Brad Templeton, who was also in attendance at the automated vehicle synopsum
wrote:

"The AVS has a lot of governmental people, and they’re all very keen to
imagine their role, which they see as making the infrastructure “ready” for
robocars. There was a whole long session on the topic, and many people who
imagine there is a lot to do. This is the wrong impression. Robocars are being
designed to handle the infrastructure we already have, and only low-skill
robocar makers are suggesting we need to make significant changes to the
infrastructure to enable these vehicles."

~~~
devrandomguy
Holey hubris, Batman! I bet there will be large dark zones on the AV's maps,
where they dare not go, for reasons they cannot comprehend with their own
sensors.

~~~
ghaff
Then I expect they won't be going to those large dark zones. I largely agree
with his comment. It's not that we shouldn't do anything. (If it makes sense
to make lane markings a bit wider, why not?) But if we really need to change
large parts of infrastructure to accommodate automated vehicles, that's a non-
starter just as it was when that sort of thing was discussed in the 1960s.

~~~
wbl
California already has made massive infrastructure changes from streetcar
removal to building BART.

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jdhopeunique
When we see articles about AI needing to be regulated by CEOs like Elon Musk,
it's not because AIs are going to take over the world. It's because AIs alone
cannot work seamlessly in certain environments and regulations are needed to
make the environment(eg roads, signs, bicycles, pedestrians, other vehicles)
conform to the needs of AI.

See
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulatory_capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulatory_capture)

Hopefully, when these regulations are written, there will be rules added to
ensure drivers and mechanics can inspect and debug the computer code in their
vehicles.

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cscurmudgeon
> How do you delineate clearly?

> One area this comes into with California is we’ve been using those Botts'
> Dots. The automated vehicles [AVs] can follow lane lines. They can’t follow
> the Botts' Dots, so we’re actually changing our delineation standards to go
> away from the Botts' Dots which we’ve been using for decades because AVs
> have a difficult time following those.

That is very surprising due to claims of superhuman image recognition due to
deep learning. Is it because of speed issues?

~~~
ghaff
Lots of claims get made about AI capabilities that are... optimistic. From a
paper on the topic: "Botts’ dot marker detection is more difficult than that
for white lines because small, sparse, low contrast regions are mixed in with
road-texture noise."
[https://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=1253090](https://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=1253090)

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pif
No matter the technological progress, I know I'll hate the moment I'll cross a
vehicle whom I can't interact with.

~~~
neom
Why?

~~~
badthingfactory
I was driving to work one day and the light was broken at the busiest
intersection in town. People were able to make it through the intersection
using hand signals and flashing headlights. How does this work when half of
the cars are fully autonomous? How are computers going to understand what
those hand signals mean?

A bridge in my town is under construction and it is down to one lane. They put
up full stop lights at both ends of the lane closure to manage traffic. Every
two or three times I go over that bridge, someone coming from the other
direction goes on red because they can see no traffic is coming. I have to sit
and wait for that vehicle before going or no one will be able to move.

I love the idea of fully autonomous vehicles, but next time you drive
somewhere count the number of ambiguous situations that occur and ask yourself
if you think a computer could be programmed to handle all of it. I'm rather
skeptical.

~~~
adrianN
There will be a rather long period where auto-cars still have steering wheels
and can ask their occupants to take over.

~~~
ghaff
That's almost certainly the case.

However, as soon as you've said that, you now have a requirement that:

\- There be a sober, competent, licensed driver in the vehicle

\- There needs to be a reliable non-instantaneous handoff from the vehicle to
the snoozing driver

\- The driver is probably still ultimately responsible for actions taken by
the vehicle

Don't get me wrong. I'll take a reliable highway autopilot system. But this
does largely rule out many of the use cases that people are thinking about
when they say self-driving car.

~~~
adrianN
Those use cases can come after the technology has proven itself reliable. You
don't have to have the perfect solution with the first production car.

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lsh123
I think the self-driving plus electric cars will indeed change the
transportation model by reducing the public transportation appeal. As the
result the demand for more roads will only increase. Unfortunately, many
politicians (as many generals) are fighting the previous war and building
public transportation projects that will be abandoned even before completion
(e.g. Brown's bullet train). Instead, we should be building more roads or may
be more efficient roads (multilevel?) to acomodate the upcoming increase in
traffic.

~~~
TACIXAT
Studies have shown that increasing road capacity just causes more drivers to
join the party to meet the supply. [1] Multilevel roads would be sick though.
I'm hoping as vehicles become more autonomous they'll be able to move more
efficiently, reducing congestion. A lot of slowdowns are artificial, people
looking at an accident, a group driving slowly backing up a couple lanes.

1\. [https://www.wired.com/2014/06/wuwt-traffic-induced-
demand/](https://www.wired.com/2014/06/wuwt-traffic-induced-demand/)

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losteverything
<widen the lane lines from four inches to six inches so they are readable.

Time for Time/Life to publish a coffee table book. My interstate and secondary
roadway sysyem hasnt changed much. Accommodation will alter the feel.

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goda90
"Today, we know we can’t put magnets in the pavement everywhere for cars to
follow..."

Why not?

As someone from a Midwestern state, I fear that all the self-driving car
development in California is going to miss the important edge cases we
experience here. Snow, plows, salt, dirt, heavy rain, etc all destroy the
visibility of lane lines.

What we need is something that can be a marker for cars that doesn't require
line of sight, or else self driving cars aren't going to be able to navigate
at the lightest snowfall.

~~~
santaclaus
> As someone from a Midwestern state, I fear that all the self-driving car
> development in California is going to miss the important edge cases we
> experience here. Snow, plows, salt, dirt, heavy rain, etc all destroy the
> visibility of lane lines.

You overestimate the quality of roads in California. :) In San Francisco and
Oakland the roads are, quite literally, falling apart. Take a ride on 880 --
straight up four lane high way with virtually no road markings.

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TACIXAT
>You’ll be able to put more cars faster and closer together when they’re
autonomous.

I hate this misconception about driving. That being closer together (assuming
front to back) is somehow useful. That restricts lateral movement and is one
of the biggest causes of slowdowns on freeways. Say you're in the fast lane
and you need to exit. If there is a column of cars next to myou, driving less
than 1 car space apart, all of those cars need to slow down to adjust and let
you over (or you need to slow down significantly, slowing the column of cars
in your lane until you find an opening). Leaving space allows for lateral
movement with no adjustment of speed.

