
Ai Weiwei: Can Hong Kong’s Resistance Win? - dtamhk
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/12/opinion/hong-kong-china-protests.html
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lostmymind66
Unless they have some sort of military, no. The resistance has no leverage
over China at the moment.

They may win temporarily, but Chinese party officials will now find ways to
use their censorship tactics and Orwellian state to completely destroy any
future ideas of resistance from within.

It's easy to find the leaders and make them disappear. Eventually, there will
be nobody left to resist because they are dead or too scared and it will be
back to business as usual.

I've been talking about the evils China for at least a decade. I've met too
many people that have this thought that the US is somehow worse than China, so
we shouldn't have a say when they stamp out religion, crush all resistance,
and murder groups and people that are deemed enemies of the state.

Future generations will look back and wonder why we never did anything about
these evils.

~~~
hker
The leverage Hong Kong has over China is the status as a financial hub for
capital flow, not military [1]. Also, given that China will keep its military
in barracks during this protest [2], the presence of military is irrelevant.

If the capital flow is restricted, it severely hurts China, especially when
she needs foreign capital where her credit expansion is unsustainable, not to
mention the ongoing trade tariffs.

The resistance knows this, that’s why they are supporting the “Hong Kong Human
Rights and Democracy Act of 2019”, a bipartisan bill introduced by US
Representative Jim McGovern and Senator Marco Rubio [3]. The bill demands true
democracy in Hong Kong—universal suffrage for the legislative council and the
chief executive—which is what the resistance wants. I read somewhere that the
bill is expected to pass by end of 2019.

In addition to real change in how elections will be done in Hong Kong, the
bill specifically targets Hong Kong officials and businesses who are
restricting the democracy in Hong Kong and will freeze their assets in the US.
It is fair to say that many businesses who are pro-Beijing do so out of
financial interests, so this bill will make them think twice before taking
side.

> It's easy to find the leaders and make them disappear.

The protest went on for so long because it has no leader [4] (this took me
some time to realize).

[1]: To see the importance of Hong Kong, let me quote “Economic and Trade
Information on China” of HKTDC ([https://hkmb.hktdc.com/en/1X09PHBA/hktdc-
research/Economic-a...](https://hkmb.hktdc.com/en/1X09PHBA/hktdc-
research/Economic-and-Trade-Information-on-China)):

Hong Kong is the largest source of overseas direct investment in the Chinese
Mainland. By the end of 2018, among all the overseas-funded projects approved
in the Chinese Mainland, 46.3% were tied to Hong Kong interests. Cumulative
utilised capital inflow from Hong Kong amounted to US$1,098.1 billion,
accounting for 54.1% of the national total.

Hong Kong is also the leading destination for China’s FDI outflow. According
to Chinese statistics, by 2017, the stock of FDI going to Hong Kong
accumulated to US$981.3billion, or 54.2% of the total outflow of FDI.

[2]: [https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-extradition-
pla-...](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-extradition-pla-
exclusive/exclusive-chinas-pla-signals-it-will-keep-hong-kong-based-troops-in-
barracks-idUSKCN1U40QR)

[3]: [https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/07/12/hongkongers-us-
launch-...](https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/07/12/hongkongers-us-launch-
campaign-urging-american-politicians-support-bill-citys-democracy-rights/)

[4]:
[https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-48802125](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-48802125)

