
Why Canada's cannabis bubble burst - RickJWagner
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50664578
======
dpflan
It seems that convenience is an important factor; access to retail in the most
populous province is low, so alternative means of access to the good are still
in favor (i.e. black market). Purport the bubble is bursting after examining
the system when it is functioning in a less constrained way that rivals the
current system (i.e. black market).

"This is especially true in Ontario, Canada's most populous province. Red tape
and a cap on the number of cannabis retail outlets have made rollout slow.
Retail licenses were awarded by lottery, and the province held the number of
licenses at 24, to serve a population of 14.5m."

"In December, the Ontario government announced that after a slow and fitful
start, the province will open itself up to more cannabis retail. It will do
away with the lottery system, the cap on the number of private stores and
cancel some pre-qualification requirements."

List of Canadian Provinces by Population:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Canadian_provinces_and...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Canadian_provinces_and_territories_by_population)

~~~
CoolGuySteve
Is it even constitutional for a province to sandbag a federal regulation like
this? Retail marijuana sales in Ontario are still effectively illegal.

~~~
herge
Because it is unconstitutional for the federal government to but into
commercial law that is not under it's purview?

~~~
derefr
Provinces aren’t states. The powers of the Canadian provincial governments are
delegated to them from the Canadian federal government, not the other way
around. Canada does not have a constitution that constrains federal power,
since it was not formed by the uniting of states wary of federal power, but
rather the uniting of colonies which all considered themselves to be under the
aegis of a single sovereignty (Britain).

Fun fact: rather than each province having a plain-old governor, Canada (as
any Commonwealth country) has one Governor General for the whole country; and
then each province has a Lieutenant Governor, _also_ appointed by the Queen,
to serve _under_ the Governor General.

~~~
herge
Provinces aren't states, but, for example, I live in a distinct nation to you
(I assume, if you are under the "aegis of Britain" ;)

There is no written constitution, but there are specific acts, charters and
traditions that form constitutional law, and define the clear divisions of
responsibility between the provincial and federal government. That includes my
government's right to set laws about signage of commercial establishments,
specific consumer rights I get, and also the commercial law around the sale of
both alcohol and cannabis.

~~~
derefr
> I assume, if you are under the "aegis of Britain" ;)

Not me, but certainly the provincial legislative assemblies of 1867 :)

> there are specific acts, charters and traditions that form constitutional
> law, and define the clear divisions of responsibility between the provincial
> and federal government

The difference is that these powers are a delegation of federal power _to_ the
provinces, rather than reservation of state power away _from_ a federation.

The relationship between the federal and provincial governments in Canada is a
lot like the relationship between the Queen and the parliament in Britain: in
practice, right now, the Queen is powerless; but technically, the parliament's
power derives from the Queen, and there's nothing _legally_ stopping a monarch
from revoking that delegation of power. In the current cultural climate,
that'd be unthinkable; but all it would take is "mere" sectarian shift to
allow for it.

~~~
eigenvector
No, that's not correct. Provincial and federal power are both derived equally
and in parallel from the Crown. One is not subordinate to the other.

------
Thriptic
You see the same problems in the American market too. Contrast the following
experiences. To buy legally, I have to go trek out to my local dispensary, sit
outside for 30 min - 1 hour, hope they have what I want when I get inside (no
way to check in advance as they have no inventory management), pay 100% more
than black market value per quantity, deal with ridiculously arbitrary
restrictions on how much and what I am allowed to buy, I have to pay with
cash, and I receive product with low potency.

If I want to buy illegally, I can call ping my friend, they tell me the whole
inventory in advance, I tell them what I want, they bring it to me for free, I
get very high quality product, it's very cheap, and we hang out for a few
hours.

Which experience do you think most people choose?

~~~
tashoecraft
Legal. I’m not a heavy user, but legal has been the amazing. I can pick up
edibles of known amounts of thc. The sales people are friendly and
knowledgeable.

Buying illegally was always sketchy, never knowing if someone would show up,
how good the product was, if it actually was indica or sativa or hybrid, it
was always just “good shit”, which wasn’t always true.

Prices feel the same and it’s defiantly not lower potency in my experience.

~~~
yocheckitdawg
I agree, I am in Australia so no legal weed here but I would happily pay more
to be able to buy edibles as well as know exactly what I am buying and what
the dosages are.

------
pmoriarty
Another reason for users turning to the black market that this article did not
mention but that I've heard mentioned elsewhere is that Canada purportedly
limits the potency of legal cannabis to relatively low levels, so the black
market remains the only source of high potency cannabis.

~~~
sandworm101
Maybe, but the real issue is that anyone is allowed to grow the stuff. And it
is really easy to grow. So everyone knows somebody who is growing. Why pay
commercial prices when your neighbor can provide you the same quality at a
fraction the cost? It may be a "black" market in the sense that it isn't the
regulated market, but those who smoke the stuff see little difference between
buying a neighbor's pot and buying carrots. They both come from the same
garden.

[https://aglc.ca/cannabis/using-cannabis-
responsibly/growing-...](https://aglc.ca/cannabis/using-cannabis-
responsibly/growing-storage-and-transportation)

~~~
9nGQluzmnq3M
Why also explains why rolling back Prohibition in the US was an unmitigated
failure, with everybody still drinking their buddies' homebrews and driving
all the pro breweries to bankruptcy.

Since that didn't actually happen, and I'm also buying my carrots at the
supermarket, we can probably deduce that it's not home-grown supply that's the
problem here.

~~~
koheripbal
Growing a plant in the backyard is several orders of magnitude easier than
buying the equipment and taking the time to brew beer.

... but your underlying point is correct. A better analogy is probably basil,
which a large percentage of buyers actually just keep their own plant at home.

~~~
brianwawok
Homebrewer and gardener. Home brewing is easier. Maybe requires a tad more
money up front.

~~~
markus92
Cannabis just requires seeds and some ground outside. Sure it won’t be the
best, but it won’t need any equipment or attention this way. Brewing beer
requires at least some active effort.

~~~
AstralStorm
Also requires no sense of smell. It stinks for kilometers.

~~~
yodsanklai
Not necessarily. It depends on the type of strain, and the number of plants.

------
moltar
You could also blame the government inefficiency in QC. The stores are
government ran. The one in Montreal on St Catherine has permanent bread lines
at any time of the day. Some of the product is sold out first thing in the
morning and you need to arrive an hour before opening. It’s like Soviet Union
of weed.

~~~
koheripbal
Quebec is always a special case of bureaucracy and government mismanagement.

Remember that all liquor stores in Quebec are government stores too. I suspect
they'll start distributing them there - possibly dependent upon neighborhood
approval.

I'll note that the neighborhood I'm in - the older folks are not happy about
the new constant pot smell around.

~~~
moltar
In ON the liquor is also controlled by LCBO, yet marijuana was given to the
private sector. I guess they learned their lesson with liquor control.

~~~
Deinumite
I wouldn't say so. The original plan was to have the LCBO handle sales of
marijuana as well.

The Liberal government that was drafting this plan lost the provincial
election and the Conservative government scrapped that it.

So it nobody learned any lessons, we just had interesting timing with our
election.

------
truebosko
The lack of edibles for the initial launch is a big blocker for casual
adoption IMO.

As per the visuals, cannabis use has not grown dramatically since
legalization. Oils and raw bud are simply not as accessible as a bar of
chocolate.

I imagine that won't cause a significant bump either, but at the least, it
opens up the market to the casual user -- which simply has not happened yet in
Canada.

------
lightedman
Way too much illegal vs legal supply for legal demand to keep up. Same glut
we're having in California, excepting half of that is caused directly by
zoning laws and such making it almost impossible to open a legal dispensary
despite it being legalized in the state.

~~~
teunispeters
Speaking as a Canadian (and utterly uninterested in cannabis) - this is
closest to accurate. Many jurisdictions are openly hostile Most parts of the
country limited access, supply and transportation.

It's hard to make a legal business work when most are still against it
functioning.

That said, it ain't dead yet.

------
conductr
Since 90s or so I’ve viewed Canada as quasi legal. Very low enforcement
compared to my US experience. It seemed like a larger amount of homegrown and
related technologies came out of Canada. Maybe I’m wrong. But if that is true,
for consumer there’s really no advantage to going retail and lots of
disadvantages as mentioned. So the “black market” sounds bad it’s really like
a local artisan. Not some terrorist funding cartel run thing. Just your friend
from down the road that shares his bounty.

~~~
SuperPaintMan
Very true, the RCMP in my hometown were rarely doing raids/busts or anything
of the sort. Unless you we're trying to muck around with hard drugs or driving
around in a hotboxed car.

There were multiple parents/working class people with tables/setups in their
garage. Come over for a cup of coffee, catch up about the kids, grab a few
grams until next week! Nothing nefarious.

On the consumer end the logistics is really the benefit of legal weed. You
don't have to know a guy, play a game of telephone, wait around. Instead you
can visit a professionally run store filled with people that know about the
products and gear that is stocked. Makes it much easier to add into the
routine right beside picking up groceries. That being said you pay a premium
for that, and there's still black-market services doing Amazon style home
delivery.

~~~
Scoundreller
Also, drug crimes in Canada are prosecuted by the feds, not your local
prosecutor. And I don't think there's been much federal prosecutorial interest
in those cases, even if your local RCMP thinks its a problem.

It likely explains why Toronto had to go the bylaw infraction route to close
down shops. Which was still a waste of money...

------
hi5eyes
another more hn reason

why would i bother putting my info into a govt database of people consuming
products that are illegal in most areas of the world?

my friend recently got banned from the us for having a small amount for
personal consumption

would rather get higher quality/better priced product from friends that get
shipped to me at my convenience than deal with the headache of legal weed

~~~
flycaliguy
Just for clarification, your friend tried to cross into the US with weed?

------
Zombieball
In downtown Vancouver the government website only lists one “legal” cannabis
store yet a quick google search shows +20 listings:

[https://justice.gov.bc.ca/cannabislicensing/map](https://justice.gov.bc.ca/cannabislicensing/map)

I would suspect that many people purchasing on the black market are in fact
purchasing from stores (not just “their weed guy”) but don’t realize the store
is not properly licensed.

~~~
klyrs
Don't trust that; unlicensed shops have been closing down much faster than
google's been keeping up. Source: I'm a customer that preferred the unlicensed
shops because the product and pricing was better. I was never ignorant about
their legal status.

In licensed shops you get a very limited selection and typically, a low
inventory. They've got little sniffer pods where you're supposed to be able to
smell the product but it's nothing like the old shops where they'd have a
canister where you could really get a good whiff. Packaging requirements mean
that there's a limited selection of quantities; and typically, the packaging
is at least 3x bigger (and significantly more expensive) than previously.

My preferred purchasing pattern is to buy a single gram of a few unfamiliar
strains, test them out, and then come back in a few days to get an ounce of
the best one. With this pattern, I only need to go to the store a few times a
year. With the new shops, they don't carry single grams, and you can't save on
packaging by buying in bulk -- if you want an ounce, you'd have to buy 10 of
the 3.5g canisters.

I was pro-legalization for obvious reasons but now I wish I had a good black-
market hookup.

------
aurizon
The only reason cannabis cost $6-8 per gram was the illegality of it all.
There were paid shocktroops(The Police) helping the criminals keep the price
high. Grown on it's own it waould be a little more expensive than hay,
something that is grown from seed in fields acres in size can be waay under
$1. Some states have huge gluts. EVen the hybrid seeds where 10,000 seeds come
from one large plant, each one female, each one prefertilized (feminized)
[https://shop.ilovegrowingmarijuana.com/collections/feminized](https://shop.ilovegrowingmarijuana.com/collections/feminized)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoflowering_cannabis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoflowering_cannabis)

So the growers can always beat the legal price because the goverment has
encumbered the legal growers with red tape and other restrictions to help the
illegal market continue to prosper. Remove the limits = $1 a gram or even less

~~~
gdubs
I think you’re right about the market constraints, but in terms of a crop it’s
more labor intensive — more like strawberries or tomatoes than hay. It’d be
great to see a shift towards low input natural farming for cannabis, but at
present it’s very input and labor intensive.

------
sysbin
I’m under the impression that the market will grow with time. The product
happens to be great enough for my standards. The obvious downside is the
requirement from a person needing to explore the dosage intake themselves and
contrary to how everyone can dive into coffee for a different type of high.
I’m skeptical of the price being where it should be because I think it’s too
high resulting in the profits being worse then what could be achieved.
Interestingly all the high THC strains are usually all sold out online in my
province’s store but I think most people that would enjoy the benefits from
the high would prefer a low to medium THC or even CBD strain. Edibles are in
my opinion dangerous and I’m curious to see how that will likely make no
difference in sales. I think what needs to happen is the ability to micro dose
safely without any unpleasantness and be affordable. Vaping can make it
affordable but dosing isn’t as accurate as I believe it should be.

------
dumbfoundded
I don't think it burst because of the Canadian market. It burst due to the
Canadian LPs building out infrastructure like there was going to be this giant
international market in Europe and the US. The Canadians haven't been able to
penetrate either market. The US seems to be handling itself and the tiny legal
international cannabis export/import market is being targeted by Colombia
aggressively. The Canadians only ever had the advantage of first mover and now
that legal barrier is collapsing.

What else grows in Canada?

Check out these pics from Colombia: [https://medellinguru.com/colombia-
cannabis/](https://medellinguru.com/colombia-cannabis/)

In Colombia, you can grow year round with only tarps up to catch the rain.

------
jasoneckert
What I've noticed here in Ontario is that everyone is growing their own
instead of buying it. Even my mother's book club is basically 15 minutes of
book talk followed by 2 hours of people trading grower's tips.

~~~
mikehodgson
It is insanely easy to do. I even made clones, and gave them to anyone that
expressed interest in growing their own.

------
kresten
I’m guessing there’s a market if it’s available and convenient to buy and of
good quality and reasonably priced.

------
rublev
My dealer pulls up within half an hour of texting them, with a full ounce they
grew themselves. They know everything about the plant, and breed it for high
THC. No delivery fee. Friendly. Great weed. No packaging. No bullshit. And
great deals. Most dealer you buy from you won't be paying $280 ($10/h per O).
Why would I _ever_ go the "legal" route?

~~~
LemonAndroid
You don't have a guilty conscience for putting people behind bars by your
behavior?

~~~
jungletek
Shouldn't you be asking the law makers and law enforcers that question?

If you support such laws, shouldn't you ask yourself the same question?

Illegal != immoral, after all.

~~~
LemonAndroid
I don't support these laws

------
conchy
This story is really a parable for government involvement in anything vs. the
free market.

~~~
Synaesthesia
How about monopolies?

