
Worst- and Best-Case Scenarios for Warming Less Likely, Study Finds - LinuxBender
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/worst-and-best-case-scenarios-for-warming-less-likely-groundbreaking-study-finds/
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sawaruna
For those looking for the changes: >The metric has existed for decades now. In
1979, a groundbreaking report led by Massachusetts Institute of Technology
scientist Jule Charney—dubbed the “Charney Report”—suggested the planet’s
climate sensitivity probably fell within a range of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius
for a doubling of CO2.

>The new study narrows the range at both ends, particularly the lower end. It
finds there’s a 66% chance that the sensitivity range falls between 2.6 and
3.9 C of warming (4.9 to 7 F).

Also the article mentions analyzing how the Earth reacts to change being a big
reason for the update, particularly clouds:

>Perhaps most importantly, the new study investigates multiple lines of
evidence when it comes to climate sensitivity. It uses global climate models,
which simulate large-scale processes across the whole world. It also uses
detailed, process-based models, which can simulate fine-scale events related
to the formation of clouds.

>The new report devotes a large chunk of its analysis exclusively to clouds.
It examines the growing body of science on how different types of clouds
respond to climate change, and how changes in these clouds may affect future
climate change.

Not only with clouds but feedback loops in general are the most interesting
aspect of these predictions for me. I'm sure it's insanely difficult to
calculate all factors, but I wonder how all-encompassing these models tend to
be. The article mentions this being a type of meta analysis, but for a single
study looking at clouds, for example, is the lowering of Earth's albedo due to
melting ice typically something they would take into account when studying
cloud predictions or not?

