

The 80/20 Rule of Technical Founders - scotch_drinker
http://www.softwarebyrob.com/2011/02/23/the-8020-rule-of-startup-founders/

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swombat
90% of tech blog authors want some cool statistics to quote

90% of those will be willing to make them up to get there

90% of those will add as many steps as it takes to make the point they were
trying to make, probably one about difficulty of getting from one step to the
next

90% of those will be willing to publish those made up statistics

100% of those will lose a chunk of credibility by doing so.

~~~
damoncali
I get your point, but I think you missed his.

~~~
mwsfc
Agreed....and I generally enjoy the article listings on Swombat too. Nothing
wrong with the application of the 80/20 "rule" here. No way to determine the
actual numbers but as a thought provoker 80/20 is just fine.... and an
identifiable concept many are already familiar with.

~~~
swombat
It's a very poor way to make a point. It's like if I used the fact that the
earth is flat to illustrate an otherwise good point. The point may be valid,
but using such a bad illustration is better than not making the point at all.

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travisp
Is this really the 80-20 rule? As I understood it, the 80-20 rule is that 80%
of the effects come from 20% of the causes. E.g. 80% of profits come from 20%
of your clients.

Here he's saying that 20% of developers want to launch a startup, and that you
can further subdivide each group into another group that is 20% of the size of
the previous group. That doesn't make sense to me as an application of the
80-20 rule other than that there's a 20% in there.

Edit: here's an explanation. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle>

~~~
endtime
I believe you're right, though the 80-20 law is just a very rough layman's
approximation of a Zipf distribution.

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RiderOfGiraffes
I remember seeing almost exactly the same analysis by a well-known author
concerning people who claim they want to write a book. I'll see if I can dig
it out - it's in one of my "Analog" magazines as an editorial.

ADDED IN EDIT: I think it was Heinlein .. stand by ...

Yup, here it is:

[http://technologydesignconsultants.com/InterestingDocuments/...](http://technologydesignconsultants.com/InterestingDocuments/RobertHeinleinSpeechAtAnnapolis.pdf)

I won't submit that link as a separate HN item because I don't want scribd to
get it.

He starts with an estimate of 100 million for the literate adult population,
and says that half claim they want to write.

* 90% never write, then

* 90% never finish, then

* 90% re-write endlessly, then

* 90% never put it on the market, then

* 90% don't keep it on the market.

That leaves 500. He then quotes that in a survey by the Authors' League of
America, 400 stated that they supported themselves and their families through
writing.

~~~
coffeedrinker
Writing (and finishing) a book is a lot of work.

I always admired people who did it (regardless of the final quality) because I
thought I could never do one myself.

Now I've written several.

And now back to my software projects.

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Jabbles
I'm very skeptical. I see no reason why all these factors should be the same,
nor a good method of measuring any of the variables mentioned. I doubt there's
any evidence to suggest that such a ratio exists, or that its effects are
visible against the small minority of entrepreneurs who succeed because they
are "lucky".

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atldev
Don't worry if you get 'filtered' out at any step along the way. You'll learn
something new that will prepare you for your next attempt. Learning is
progress and you'll probably be able to push through to the next barrier. Just
keep going and push a little further each time.

When I look back, I see a very clear pattern of working my way through this
funnel. A decade ago, I dropped an idea in an early stage because the
consulting $ was too good. Five years ago I built a product, but was nervous
to release it because it wasn't "perfect". Last week I launched a product at
Startup Riot and had a blast. It was an awesome experience.

Remember Edison. With each attempt, you get closer to success.

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markszcz
I'm printing this out and putting it up on my wall.

"Our best estimates put the number of developers in the world at around 5
million."

It would be nice to see how they got that estimate but for arguments sake, I
still like where the breakdown is going.

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pedalpete
I think there are some major flaws in the inputs. For instance, '20% have
enough motivation to start educating themselves' reduces the number of
successes significantly, but who's to say that is a valid input to overall
success?

I can come up with many random variables, and feed these numbers through it to
come up with the last 1.

of those, 20% have enough free-time to commit to the needs of their startup?

of those, 20% have the sales skill to get other people involved.

Of those, ...

I suspect there are far more than 1600 who have and will achieve 'some measure
of success'.

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jorkos
This makes no sense, arbitrarily applying the 80/20 rule to any and all
circumstances holds no grounds - really. The 80/20 fallacy is one of the most
overused and misunderstood concepts in stats...."applying the 80/20 we won't
worry about this aspect of our customer base....or this aspect of our
business...". It's pernicious, it really is.

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PaulHoule
"Finish" is a funny thing. Interactive community web sites, like say, Facebook
or Deviant Art aren't ever 'finished'.

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delano
_Of those, 20% (8,000) will actually finish building something_

Hey now, we can't all be Edsger Dijkstra.

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edw519
Hmmm, I smell a general case...

Our best estimates put the number of x in the world at around y.

Applying the 80/20 rule you can estimate:

Of those, 20% (y(.2)) want to z

Of those, 20% (y(.2)(.2)) have enough motivation to start educating themselves
about the process

Of those, 20% (y(.2)(.2)(.2)) will actually start building something

Of those, 20% (y(.2)(.2)(.2)(.2)) will actually finish building something

Of those, 20% (y(.2)(.2)(.2)(.2)(.2)) have prepared themselves enough to
achieve some measure of success

~~~
pingu
>20% (y(.2)(.2)(.2)(.2)(.2)) have _prepared themselves enough to achieve some
measure of success_

What does this prep entail? What more needs to be done apart from having the
motivation,starting and finishing building the damn thing?

~~~
Benjo
Yeah, the last factor I didn't quite follow. Seems like the original author
felt like 8000 was too large, so he needed a bullshit excuse to scale it down
one more time.

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jayro
It would be great if some enterprising designer created a poster out of this
concept with some cool graphic depicting a sequence of sieves. Going further I
think that you could create an entire collection of Hacker News posters that
would find a ready audience.

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jswinghammer
I wonder if the category you are really looking for is building something that
people want and like. Seems like if you have something that people really like
that making money from it will come with time.

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stdbrouw
Look, at first this kind of thing was all fun and inspirational, but Seth
Godin-style aphorisms have been demoded for about three to four years now.
Content with substance, please.

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jwb119
1,600 is way low

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jrussbowman
well, i've made it to the 40,000 group

