
Gavin Newsom: 56% of California will be infected with coronavirus in 8 weeks - revicon
https://www.santacruzsentinel.com/2020/03/19/gavin-newsom-56-percent-of-californians-projected-to-be-infected-with-coronavirus-in-8-week-period/
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chickenpotpie
Assuming this is true and mortality rate of 2%, that means 510,000
Californians will die.

~~~
scotty79
Average mortality according to recent analysis is 0.125%

[https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-
rates/](https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/)

Which is in consistent with the data from a cruise ship where all people could
be tested.

Which means 30k deaths not 500k. Still a lot I think.

Also pretty close to flu, which makes me distrustful of this mortality rate,
seeing how different it looks in Italy now compared to seasonal flu.

~~~
thu2111
Italy has been seeing overflowing hospitals in recent previous years as well
during peak influenza season. So that doesn't by itself imply something truly
unusual.

I wish I could find the source for this (it was a medical paper) but I've read
a lot of web pages lately and not bookmarked them all systematically.

Yesterday I pointed out that dramatic news of war-like conditions in
hospitals, running out of beds, erecting tents to hold extra patients and
warnings of imminent collapse have happened in the recent past in ...
California:

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22632440](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22632440)

If you look you can instantly find news stories that sound exactly like those
coming out of Italy at the moment, but from recent years in flu season, for
almost any country.

It's fair to say that hospitals running out of beds or putting people in
corridors, tents, hastily converted rooms isn't unusual. Perhaps we should ask
why there isn't enough peak capacity in western health systems to handle just
a bad flu season, let alone something like this.

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vearwhershuh
Ad free-ish at the Sac Bee:

[https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article241349341.htm...](https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article241349341.html)

If 56% of CA is infected in 2 months then we aren't being told something about
this virus.

~~~
xenocyon
Newsom's CA estimate is _roughly_ the same percentage as the nationwide
estimates by the CDC: "Between 160 million and 214 million people in the
United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic"
([https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-
est...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-
estimate.html))

~~~
vearwhershuh
I don't know where you live, but where I live they have issued a shelter in
place order and my understanding is that this is widespread.

If 56% of the state gets the virus under a shelter in place order, either we
all already have it or the virus is so virulent that even limited runs for
essentials is extremely risky.

~~~
WalterSear
Newsom's statement qualified that the calculations did not take shelter-in-
place into account.

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geuis
Can someone submit an article on this topic from a news source that doesn’t
completely cover up the story with ads, popovers when you have ad blocking
turned on, etc? This website plus Mercury news do the same bullshit.

~~~
wglb
Perhaps here
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22632739](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22632739)

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singularity2001
WOULD be infected if people kept partying. With containment measures and
medicine in the pipeline this scenario can be prevented as other countries
show.

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mirimir
Isn't it predictable that incidence of infection will be proportional to
population density? If so, isn 't the Northeast megalopolis most at risk?

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olivermarks
subscription panes free link
[https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/california-
coronaviru...](https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/california-coronavirus-
numbers-newsom-trump-15144169.php)

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black6
We (the public) are being misled about either the virulency, the morbidity
rate, or both, with regards to SARS-CoV-2. The real numbers simply do not
match the models.

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natalyarostova
This is completely unacceptable. If this happens tens of thousands will be
dying on the streets and in hospital parking lots. Meanwhile other areas are
able to suppress the virus, collectively buying ourselves time to develop
therapeutics and vaccines. Major Asian countries are succeeding.

