
Tablets might be a flash in the pan: Microsoft global chief strategy officer - mjfern
http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/tablets/tablets-might-be-a-flash-in-the-pan-microsoft-global-chief-strategy-officer-20110330-1cfv2.html
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erikpukinskis
Tablets will eclipse laptops and desktops for the same reason people eat
dinner in kitchen/breakfast nook instead of the dining room. They are lazy and
will make do with what is in front of their face.

The iPad, because of its form factor, follows you around the house. It's
sitting on the kitchen counter. It's on the arm of your deck chair. It's
portable in a way that not even laptops are.

It's the book you read because it happened to be on the shelf at your parent's
house. It's dish you order at your husband's favorite restaurant. It's not the
most powerful computing device ever to grace this planet, but it's _there_.
It's immediate.

And maybe for the few of us who have a compelling need that forces us onto the
laptop (development, design, typing, etc) maybe this is less true. Because
once you're on the laptop, the immediacy of the iPad is sot of cancelled out.
But for the vast majority where the iPad offers an OK version of everything
they need, it will take over.

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bergie
The fact that it is not a development/work machine is exactly the reason I use
a tablet at home. Does wonders for work/life balance

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dotBen
Ok but wait there are two points to consider here.

First off, Mundie said that he wasn't sure whether the _big screen_ (12"+)
tablet market would remain successful. That's a fair question as we're seeing
a lot of other companies put their resources in the smaller 7"-9" screen
market (Kindle, being the most popular if you consider it a tablet). Not sure
I buy it, but with that statement he's not saying _all_ tablets.

Secondly, I'm minded that everyone in the mainstream world thought that the
NetBook was the next big thing - and that market has practically evaporated
(in the Western World, at least). Same could happen to tablets, especially
like NetBooks they don't actually replace an existing machine but instead try
to create a new tier of need.

For Microsoft their biggest market is still enterprise and I'm yet to be
convinced tablets have a massive value there given that we're seeing tablet
usage orientate around content + information consumption not productivity.

Ultimately, however, I do think this is a foolish decision if it represents
Microsoft's official position - they just cannot afford _not_ to hedge their
bets and have something in the tablet market even if they think the future is
ultimately gloomy.

~~~
po
Good points. I'm reminded of the palm pilot form factor. I used one for a
while. Thought it was great. Then after about a year I stopped using it. I
think a lot of people did that and therefore for a good two or three years it
looked like the future of computing.

I read Daring Fireball a lot and one thing I think he gets wrong consistently
(although he's not the only one) is pointing to the popularity of the iPad as
proof that it's not just a fad. The problem is that some fads are quite
popular. I think in the case of the iPad it probably isn't a fad but only time
can determine that conclusively.

And you're right... even if it's not "The Official Future" you can make a ton
of money selling them and Microsoft should be there. There's hype and then
there are fads. You can sell a lot of Handspring Visors and Palm Pilot cases
based on a fad.

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simonh
Paul Thurrott said it best. It was a verbal comment on Windows Weekly so I
don't have an exact quote, but it was something like:

"If you're a senior exec at Apple, and you're looking at these bumbling boobs
that are your competitors, you've got to be the happiest guy in the world."

I look forward to the Microsoft Computer Room

~~~
marakas
The computer room is an interesting idea but I am not sure I want my kid
running around in it at the same time as I am trying to use it. For that
reason there will always be a home on my coffee table for the iPad ( or what
ever tablet takes over the number 1 spot in the next few years )

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yannickmahe
> "instead of seeing a screen it can beam individual rays of light into your
> eyes right on your retina ... [so] you can look at your phone and see HDTV"

I'd would love to see that in action, assuming safety is not a problem, of
course. Making a "large screen" on something so small has a lot of
applications, and is just plain cool.

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danssig
A nice, concise explanation on why MS keeps missing revolution after
revolution.

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zwieback
One thing to consider is whether the tablets will quickly become commoditized
to the point where it doesn't really matter which one you buy. Unless the app
market really takes off the tablet could become a pure consumer device like a
TV - most people don't really care whether it's a Sony or Samsung. I often
can't even remember which one I have since I just click the button and watch.
In that sense it might not end up a big market for MS.

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JonoW
Interestingly, in the poll at the bottom of the article, 40% of 3800 people
said they don't think tablets are here to stay. A lot higher than you would
expect.

Personally I think they are here to stay, although I think their value is a
bit exagerated. I used an iPad for a few weeks and I really liked it, but I
didn't do anything I don't usually do on my smartphone. Doesn't mean I
wouldn't buy one though...

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danilocampos
He's just trolling, right?

I mean, this – there's absolutely no way in hell that this is something he
truly entertains as possible.

I cannot fully wrap my head around the sort of mental structure that would
allow someone to watch 2010 happen and then make these remarks. Of course,
when you don't actually have any sort of credible plan in place to deal with a
new, hot market, this sort of thing takes on the flavor of wishful thinking.

"Oh, no. The market realities haven't changed. We still get to keep making
money by doing the exact same things we have always done."

Sounds like Intel.

~~~
bergie
At least Intel is working on MeeGo to have something for the tablet space

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sandee
"I believe the successor to the desktop is the room, that instead of thinking
that the computer is just something on the desk that you go and sit in front
of, [in the] future basically the whole room is the computer and you go in
it."

Think he meant bathroom

~~~
danssig
They're still obsessed with this "whole house is a computer" idea it seems.
This isn't what people want. People like different devices to do different
things. This thing is for calling people, this (tablet) is for reading the
web, this thing is for music, this is for building software. It's what we're
used to.

I've never seen a hammer that was also a screw driver that was also a level.
The fact that I've never seen one I would have to assume that if anyone did
try to make such a thing no one bought it.

~~~
cullend
Or machining and design tools weren't good enough to make an interesting one.
Once physics figures out how to let me change the density/ mass of an object
at the press of a button, I'll have your screwdriver hammer level for you.

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michaelpinto
Given the Xbox I'd say that Microsoft should own a large chunk of the tablet
market — it would be sad if they just gave that up to Apple and Google.

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michaelcampbell
I don't see the relationship here; can you expand this thought a bit?

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michaelpinto
The xbox is a good example of Microsoft doing consumer hardware well — if they
created a tablet with this mindset instead of making something to run Office
2012 they could go after the iPad and win converts. The xbox is also a good
example of Microsoft letting go of their legacy and trying something really
new (including being in the hardware biz).

~~~
michaelcampbell
Ah yes, I see. Yeah, I agree with you.

