
Antirez (Redis creator): don’t believe this is just a flu - ptype
https://twitter.com/antirez/status/1237359829884243968
======
bb123
I find it strange that even on HN we seem to fall into the trap of holding up
people's opinions who ostensibly know nothing special about the subject. This
guy is an engineer not a public health expert, why are we holding his thoughts
and advice in particular esteem?

~~~
jpxw
Because he’s on the ground in one of the hardest hit areas, and has no (that I
can see) incentive to lie. The media, where he is getting his info from, also
has no (that I can see) incentive to overstate the situation. Sometimes you
have to consider anecdotal evidence - sometimes there is no other option in a
crisis like this.

~~~
bb123
That is a good point, I am still skeptical that he should be handing out
advice though. I would also disagree that the media has no incentive to
overstate the situation. The Italian PM has specifically asked them to tone
down their reporting as it was causing panic.

~~~
jpxw
> The Italian PM has specifically asked them to tone down their reporting as
> it was causing panic.

That doesn't mean they are being untruthful, though.

------
ramblerman
The rate at which this has spread in Italy is a two sided coin in my opinion.

It means the "found" cases are grossly under representative, and probably
deaths is a more meaningful statistic. But on the upside it also means the
virus is probably not as lethal as the 3% figure, as it has passed through
many people uncounted.

~~~
sagichmal
> But on the upside it also means the virus is probably not as lethal as the
> 3% figure, as it has passed through many people uncounted.

Lethality appears to be a function of the availability of health care.

> This is what you can conclude: countries that are prepared will see a
> fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China); countries that
> are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%.

[https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-
peop...](https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-
die-f4d3d9cd99ca)

------
heyflyguy
I read yesterday that the US infection rate is tracking that of Italy. If so,
we should all take note of his comments regarding isolation and culture.

~~~
jpxw
Sorry to say this, but the US is going to be even worse than Italy. You have
not been testing nearly enough people.

~~~
akie
Additionally, the US health care system is worse, people are not or under-
insured (so they have an incentive to avoid seeking care), and leading US
politicians are acting like it isn't really happening.

~~~
jpxw
I'm usually pretty libertarian and I think private healthcare can work. But
right now it really, really can't. Massive issues are down the road, and not
very far down the road (14 days).

~~~
amalter
And if private healthcare can’t work during a crisis, then what use is it?

A large public system cannot be conjured out of thin air to met each crisis.

We will see the large well funded social medical systems, with their
“inefficient” over capacity, over-perform the operating on thin margins
private systems.

I’m terrified here in the US.

(FWIW - give me 90% socialized medicine with room on the margins for private
clinics, like the vast majority of the 1st world)

------
bb123
Does anyone know where he is getting the number from? It is quite a striking
statistic, I would love to read more.

~~~
ptype
It’s in the thread: “Yes, it was reported yesterday by the authorities in the
Italian television, the director of one of the major hospitals also reported a
few severe cases with people under 30 otherwise totally healthy.”

~~~
stewbrew
Citation needed.

"The authorities ..." Which one? If it's an official statement there should be
better sources available.

"the director of one hospital ..." Which one?

~~~
akie
What is it with so many people being so dismissive of such reports? You think
he's just lying, that he just wants to mislead us, or what?

~~~
bb123
There is so much misinformation out there about this situation, I think
skepticism of any report is not an unreasonable position. The Italian media
has been criticised for drumming up panic.

~~~
akie
The health system is completely overloaded and unable to deal with this (1).
And that's in a health system that was rated as one of the best in the world
(2).

(1) Article in German, shared by Germany's top virologist (1b), the guy who
literally developed the test for the corona virus
[https://www.tagesspiegel.de/gesellschaft/panorama/aus-dem-
co...](https://www.tagesspiegel.de/gesellschaft/panorama/aus-dem-coronavirus-
krisengebiet-tsunami-der-uns-ueberwaeltigt-hat-der-verzweifelte-bericht-eines-
italienischen-arztes/25629010.html)

(1b)
[https://twitter.com/c_drosten/status/1237650201323737088](https://twitter.com/c_drosten/status/1237650201323737088)

(2) many sources, but see e.g.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Health_Organization_rank...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Health_Organization_ranking_of_health_systems_in_2000)

------
fasteo
Not trying to be negative, but this seems to me as a appeal to non-authority
bias, specially the way the title is written.

For the fun of it, let's reverse it:

Adhanom (OMS General Manager): Redis is way better than memcached

