

Building a predictive model for the World Cup - pranade
http://www.kimonolabs.com/predictor/

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minimaxir
The analysis provides a derivation of the model, but it does not even hint at
the _accuracy_ of a finished model, and there's plenty of data to do cross-
validation.

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pranade
Good point - thanks for the feedback! Yes, it's been about 75% on the R16
games. It's also fully interactive - so you can change the weights to explore
relationships with historical data that might be interesting.

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reillyse
France is beating Nigeria with 100% certainty, and Brazil beats Chile with 35%
probability i.e. loses with 65% probability.

I don't think the model is working great.

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pranade
Yes, that is with high certainty, but not 100%. We'll fix the messaging hear -
thanks for flagging. Also, it's interactive so you can change the weights and
see what happens

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joosters
They appear to have built just an empty black web page for me (Firefox/Mac)

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pranade
Thanks for catching - for now you'll have to view it in Chrome.

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mef51
france beats germany with 100% certainty?! D:

