

Has The Cupcake Bubble Finally Popped? - cmaher
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/04/23/178612386/has-the-cupcake-bubble-finally-popped

======
dpiers
I am an internet-famous cupcake chef (see: <http://imgur.com/fFlC5>) and
former Czar of Cupcakes at ZeroCater, and I believe the bubble has popped.

You can only charge $4 for a cupcake for so long before the novelty wears off.
Maybe now people will stop telling me to quit my job and make cupcakes full-
time after they try my chocolate cupcakes w/ sriracha caramel frosting.

And, if you're looking to get in on the next fad sweet trend, donuts are the
new cupcakes.

~~~
siavosh
Is this just a repeat of the Krispy Kreme craze around the turn of the
millenium?

~~~
dpiers
Wasn't that just a repeat of the TCBY craze of the late 80s?

~~~
gbhn
Froyo is very boom/bust. There's been another big boom (around the tart
yogurts from Pinkberry et al) recently.

------
joezydeco
A client of mine manufactures frozen yogurt machines. They're making money
hand-over-fist right now with the explosion of these new DIY frozen yogurt
shops. Mostly because these shops purchase a multiple of machines as opposed
to a Dairy Queen that gets by with one.

But the client is convinced that this expansion will end soon. My town alone
has 5 or 6 of them (with 2 more slated to open this year) and there's just no
way even a town of my size (pop. 50,000) can sustain it.

~~~
PaulHoule
Frogurt's got that bubble feeling, but unlike cupcakes, it actually "crossed
the chasm" into the flyover cities where most Americans live.

I definitely see cupcake shops at chi-chi spots in NYC, LA and SF but I've
never seen one in a city with < 1M population or in a rural or posturban area.

~~~
FigBug
My city of 350,000 has 9 cup cake shops. I can't see how it will last.

~~~
VLM
You might be surprised. Lets say you have to haul in $1K/day to pay labor and
rent and just minimally keep open. Sounds like a miserable way to earn a
kilobuck, but if you get $5/customer and there's 365 days per year you need:
1000 / 5 * 365 = 74 thousand customer visits per year. So roughly 350K
citizens / about 10 shops = 35 thousand customers per shop. That means every
citizen needs to visit a mere twice per year. My guess is its more like 1 in
20 are hardcore carb/sugar addicts who visit every week and pig out.

Now a kilobuck a day isn't going to earn you a private island retirement.
That's for a hole in the wall in a cruddy area not a giant palace right off
the interstate and barely keeping in business and paying the bills. But it is
theoretically survivable.

WRT the fad itself disappearing, most small businesses collapse and are
replaced by other small businesses so in the long run they'll all eventually
disappear, to be replaced with the next new fad at about the same financial
and survival stats.

Its been interesting watching financial changes in my town since the housing
bubble popped, before the pop the purpose of a small business was to separate
a sucker from his home equity loan money, so the landlords didn't care about
infrastructure or parking, etc, but suddenly now that the amateurs are gone
from the market, once again CRE actually needs to appeal to be rented, parking
is not an option anymore, etc.

------
lnanek2
I hate walking into what look like bakeries and they don't have bread...or
heck sometimes even no simpler option like corn or bran muffins. ;/ Half the
time now I walk in and there's nothing but cupcakes and other sweets.

~~~
mikemac
It's amazing that you can walk through Boston, pass dozens of cupcake and
frozen yogurt businesses in high rent areas, but finding a baguette from a
local merchant is near impossible. It must not be profitable or the demand
just isn't there.

~~~
randallsquared
But a baguette is just a signal to the viewer that the holder has been food
shopping. No one actually _eats_ baguettes; they're just visual shorthand -- a
stand-in for food.

Right?

Right?

------
fsniper
I'm not sure if this story is a satire or a real one. ( not joking. I'm still
wondering if there can be a cupcake bubble?)

Replace cupcakes with some technology and you got yourself a technology blog
post.

~~~
rdouble
The cupcake bubble is all too real. Ask anyone who lived in Manhattan during
the 2000s as it finalized its transformation from "Escape from New York" to
the NYU/Sex in The City cupcake fantasyland of today. The guys who used to
have the cheap bagel and coffee trucks now sell cupcakes instead.

~~~
darkarmani
What's next? Muffin tops sold by a store called "Top of the Morning?"

~~~
rdouble
Macarons.

------
bluetidepro
I think if you wanted to stay in the same realm as cupcakes/desserts, as far
as the "new bubble" goes, it would probably be "Cake Pops". Those are becoming
huge now, and only getting bigger. Heck, even Starbucks now carries Cake Pops.

Here is just a general link of what Cake Pops are, if you are not familiar
with them: <http://www.bakerella.com/pops-bites/cake-pops/> \- Basically, just
a cupcake/cake on a stick that can have lots of designs around it.

~~~
joezydeco
I'm seeing a huge uptick in upscale donut shops. Chicago has 4 or 5 of them
now.

The Doughnut Vault (<http://thedoughnutvault.tumblr.com/>) probably is the
most well known with new arrivals like Do-Rite (<http://doritedonuts.com/>)
and Glazed and Infused (<http://www.goglazed.com/>). Had to include last that
one just for the awesome name.

~~~
JonnieCache
_> Had to include last that one just for the awesome name._

There's a kebab shop in south london called "Halal! Is it meat you're looking
for?"

------
9999
Short cupcakes, go long on brownies.

~~~
Samuel_Michon
I was thinking “Go long on shortbread”.

------
rayiner
How much growth is really left in the $5 cupcake market in a country where
wages are stagnating? The conventional wisdom is that you have to move up-
market in order to make any money, but you're targeting a shrinking customer
base...

~~~
dbrian
Starbucks has been doing well selling $5 coffee. I don't think the cupcake
market will ever be that size, but there is plenty of room for companies like
<https://www.heycupcake.com/>.

~~~
wavefunction
Coffee also has the advantage of a habit-forming substance.

~~~
Samuel_Michon
I'd say sugar qualifies.

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sugar_addiction>

------
mixmastamyk
Dunno, the trendy one in Beverly Hills still has lines down the street on a
weekday afternoon, just as it did the last couple of years. (At least from 6
months ago, last time I was there.)

It's not my scene, but is someone's.

------
gph
I feel so out of the loop, I didn't even know there was a cupcake fad going
on.

Either it never hit Baltimore or I just don't go to the trendy parts of town.

~~~
seeken
There was a cupcake shop in Canton next to ETC, but it didn't last long. I
went there once and was not impressed.

------
amanfredi
I think the real problem with Crumbs cupcakes is that they are actually pretty
bad...

------
untog
To think we all laugh at the tulip mania Holland experienced in the 1600s...

------
joshguthrie
Am I really the only one reading all this with s/cupcake/bitoin/ ?

------
gadders
Bring back Fairy Cakes!

------
incision
Speaking of bubbles, I wonder when food trucks are going to start disappearing
or whether it has already started and I'm just missing it?

~~~
don_draper
I've been hoping it was just getting started. I expected someone here to
create an app that makes it super easy to find good and cheap food from the
nearest food truck.

------
ferrantim
anyone remember flavored popcorn boutiques?

