
Ask HN: What happens after no-deal Brexit? - aosaigh
This isn&#x27;t necessarily an ideal question for HN, but as an Irish person living in the UK I&#x27;m increasingly nervous of the fallout from the inevitable no-deal Brexit on the horizon and I trust the opinion of HN users.<p>What do you think the consequences of no-deal is going to be? Is it as bad as everyone thinks?<p>When I think it about it rationally it seems like it&#x27;s going to be absolutely chaotic and potentially violent in Northern Ireland.
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davedx
I think if it even happens (several people I know still don't believe it
will), it will in the long term lead to the dissolution of the Union. The
position of Scotland is pretty clear here, and I can't see that the status quo
will remain in Northern Ireland either. Personally as a British citizen I
would not be disappointed to see a united Ireland in my lifetime - Brexit was
a good chance to read up on all the history, and I do not believe NI should be
ruled from London.

I don't think there will be quite as much chaos and doom as some people
predict, but the ports situation will definitely be bad (if you listen to the
transport professionals, hauling companies etc. who actually _do_ cross
between the UK and mainland Europe regularly). Certain medicines will be in
very short supply. There's an endless list of things from mildly inconvenient
to downright terrible (if you depend on one of the medicines to live, for
example).

The economy is _already_ tipping into recession. Leaving the UK's biggest
trade union will make this worse. If the Tories somehow cling to power, expect
more cuts. Maybe the NHS will be privatised to save money. The poor and
disabled will be shat on even more than they already are.

The wealthy will as always find a way to do just fine. Tax evasion will
continue and probably grow (exemption from new EU tax directives and
policies).

 _More_ companies than have already left will move to the mainland.

 _More_ EU citizens will go back home (whether forcibly due to the draconian
rules or out of choice). Priti Patel will smile sweetly as the talent exodus
decimates entire sectors.

People will try and get on with their lives, but for many it will definitely
get harder.

I hate Brexit.

~~~
J-dawg
Related question: how would they decide who gets to be a citizen of
(independent) Scotland?

I expect that millions of people would try to find a link to Scotland for a
chance of regaining their EU citizenship.

~~~
bengale
My understanding is you can get Irish citizenship if you have Irish
grandparents. I'd expect that to be the same and for the Scottish government
to offer citizenship to current residents.

My hope is to use my wife's Scottish heritage to move there in the not too
distant future.

~~~
J-dawg
Any UK citizen can move there while it's still part of the UK. Do you think
there would be minimum residency requirements for citizenship?

It's a bizarre thought that we may be seeing English illegal migrants being
deported from Scotland in the not-too-distant future.

Also, how quickly could Scotland join the EU? I remember that being one of the
sticking points of the first independence referendum.

~~~
bengale
Honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see the Scottish government make it easy
to get citizenship, at least in the short term. It would be an easy PR win to
show large numbers of Brits requesting Scottish citizenship.

~~~
alex_hitchins
I hope so as I'd be one of those applying and moving. The whole Brexit mess is
very very depressing. I hope the mess we are making goes to bolster Europe as
a whole and show how it's so much better to just get along.

------
Simulacra
I am friends with an MP who is on the Remain side, and I've quizzed him off
and on for some time. He tells me there will be some movement in the currency
exchange markets, on the London stock exchange, but by and large life will
just keep moving along. Manufacturing agreements with Asia and the Americas
are in place, so no disruption to most of that. He thinks some food staples
might be in short supply but companies have been preparing for Brexit for a
year now, so disruption should be minimal. He believes the future of Britain
is within the Union, but he personally believes all talk of disruption and
shortages is just politics.

Personally, I believe him. I think a lot of politics is filled with doomsday
scenarios and fear mongering, but we're talking about a major, modern economy.
Brexit reminds me of Y2K. Lots of talk, lots of worry, but nothing really
happened.

~~~
nemothekid
> _Brexit reminds me of Y2K. Lots of talk, lots of worry, but nothing really
> happened._

What an ominous analogy. I hope for the sake of those who live there nothing
happens - but the y2k bug was more than “lots of talk and worry”. People
identified the problem and worked diligently to get it fixed before shit hit
the fan - just because nothing happened doesn’t mean nothing was done. I don’t
think you should take a laid back attitude and assume someone else will do all
the work.

On a related note, I worry this is how climate change will be treated if
addressed. Some clueless peoples will simple hand wave the problem away and
ignore the years of energy change and research that had to be done because
“nothing bad happened”

~~~
Diederich
> just because nothing happened

There were substantial problems, but because of the high level of alert, they
were fixed very rapidly.

> People identified the problem and worked diligently to get it fixed before
> shit hit the fan

This, a thousand times.

------
bengale
More than likely the dissolution of the United Kingdom. Scotland will have
another referendum if we leave with no deal, and odds are they will vote yes
this time. A hard border in Ireland will more than likely result in a vote for
re-unification, and depending on how bad it goes for NI in a no deal scenario
it's not unlikely for that to happen too.

In the short term we'll probably struggle with logistical issues, getting
freight through the ports, shutting down motorways around Dover, etc. There
will be more pain for people travelling to the EU, especially for those that
do business there. Nothing apocalyptic there but definitely stuff we've not
had to think about for decades. We'll end up falling in line with their
regulation and things anyway I expect so I wouldn't expect to see any major
trade deals with the US any time soon.

Politically even if the U.K. somehow stays together the Conservative party is
going to end up bearing the blame for this. There is no real pathway to this
being successful for those people that are hurting the most, they were lied to
and even if they get what they think they want, they are going to pay the cost
of that. How that shakes out is anyones guess, I wouldn't be surprised to see
the country swing further to the right with the help of the tabloid press.
Especially when we have to increase immigration from non-eu countries to
bolster the people that leave, just within the NHS this is going to be
required. Couple that with stagnant growth and a continuation of austerity
there is going to be some real anger within the working class.

Essentially we're probably looking at another lost decade at least, a descent
into darker and darker politics and finally when we're back to the original
position when we entered the EU as the sick man of Europe we'll probably vote
to rejoin.

------
NeedMoreTea
I'm concerned, but mainly for the mid-term future than immediate starvation
and riots.

Borders and ports will cope - _only_ after a period of obviously not having
nearly enough customs and other staff for borders and checks. Temporarily
difficult then. Particularly as we have a government that doesn't want to
spend on any necessary service.

Good Friday agreement is my biggest short term concern. That requires a lack
of borders, and Brexit seems to require the impossible in NI. Mid-term I see
reunification. Short term could get ugly if there's border posts, and _just
one_ incident...

Mid term, it's destroyed UK's international reputation, it's boosted
independence thoughts across the nation, and our politicians of all colours
are clearly no longer fit for purpose. You tell me where that takes us. I see
a further decline of science and business as more goes to the EU than here.
Why would a project choose to locate in a post-Brexit UK with no EU agreement?

------
ptah
I think the UK will have to give up N.I. to Ireland at some point to avoid an
all out war. EU is good at keeping peace the last few decades, but Europe has
always been at war internally before that so it looks like it will be back to
BAU

~~~
crispyporkbites
The Northern Irish who identify as British would not be very happy there.
Pretty sure they would not accept this.

~~~
magduf
So are they ready to trash the Good Friday agreement and go back to The
Troubles? Because that's the alternative.

~~~
crispyporkbites
Why should they have to trash the good friday agreement in the first place? NI
voted to remain.

~~~
magduf
They have to trash the Good Friday agreement because it requires a customs-
free border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. This isn't possible with
Brexit: having a customs-free border means anyone can just import anything
into or out of the UK through NI.

Maybe one solution would be to have a county-by-county referendum, where each
county in NI gets to decide whether it wants to stay in NI or instead join
Ireland. This would make NI smaller, but would concentrate the UK loyalists in
it, and the number of Republicans (the ones who want to rejoin Ireland) would
decrease a lot (many would be in the counties that would leave, which are
probably mostly right on the border, and some might even move), so maybe re-
establishing a hard border would be more palatable then.

~~~
osullivj
That amounts to repartioning Ireland. The original partition in 22 was
traumatic, and we're still living with the consequences today. The
partitioning of India in 47, and the British Mandate of Palestine in 48 were
also traumatic and bloody events. Partition generally causes forced population
transfer, which tends to lead to bloodshed.

~~~
magduf
Well, they're going to have bloodshed anyway, so wouldn't it be better to
minimize it? The IRA isn't going to stand for going back to the way things
were before the GF agreement.

~~~
ptah
there's already increased IRA activity
[https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17891935.londonderry-
bom...](https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17891935.londonderry-bomb-planted-
new-ira-targeted-police/)

------
downtide
Think Mad Max on mobility scooters. I've stock piled food. The Irish border is
already an issue, I was there recently when two bombs were found. I doubt it
will be pretty.

------
notkaiho
It would require a lot of agreed-upon things to continue as agreed rather than
end upon the overarching agreement (i.e. membership of the Union) coming to an
end. This is largely what Brexit-positive people seem to think would happen in
the case of a no-deal, i.e. "nothing much would change" because to rock the
boat would be too much.

------
J-dawg
What I fear is the UK government (and the press that support it) continuing
its policy of doing very little and blaming everything on the EU. For example:

1\. UK leaves without a deal, leaving an open EU border between Ireland and
NI. 2\. UK refuses to do anything to enforce this border or stop the movement
of goods and people across it. 3\. Ireland / the EU needs to protect its
borders so they put up fences and vehicle checkpoints. Perhaps even with help
from other EU countries' security forces. 4\. UK right wing press runs stories
full of angry language about the 'invasion'

I fear we'll see this process repeated every time there's a shortage of
anything - it will all be the EU's fault, and entering into any transitional
agreements with the EU (if they are gracious enough to grant us any) will be
'surrender' or 'capitulation'.

This is a worst case scenario, but I fear we are heading for serious civil
unrest and violence

------
cerealbad
Interest rate cuts by the BoE, the pound weakens, Asian foreign investment -
Japan and China would love to build high speed rail for an international
market. Companies like Huawei will offer turn key solutions to government
infrastructure projects. You can hedge by buying Swiss francs, Aussie dollars
or Japanese Yen. Or purchasing an investment property or a plot of land for
future development, immigration from Asia will see a rising demand in housing,
cheap accommodation. Long term the UK becomes a type of Hong Kong for wealthy
Europeans - tax haven and pivot point of entry into the European market. More
jobs will be created in tech, manufacturing and construction.

------
w_t_payne
I am quite close to a couple of people actually working on Brexit ... and
while of course they won't tell me any specifics, the message that I'm getting
from the body language, eye-rolls and exasperated sighs is ... pretty bleak.

------
DanBC
The Belfast Agreement / Good Friday Agreement will be trashed and we'll lose
the tenuous peace we had in NI.

Watch Raab talking about the Good Friday Agreement:
[https://twitter.com/deirdreheenan/status/1175701674767388672](https://twitter.com/deirdreheenan/status/1175701674767388672)

And here is the actual document that he hasn't read:
[https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-belfast-
agree...](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-belfast-agreement)

------
magduf
Renewed conflict in Northern Ireland, breaking the Good Friday agreement,
leading to open war between the EU and the UK, with Scotland seceding during
the chaos and joining the EU.

Or, renewed conflict in Northern Ireland and huge tensions between the EU and
UK leads to the Queen taking control since the UK obviously doesn't know how
to govern itself any more. Honestly, this seems like the best outcome; they'd
be better off with royal rule than what they've chosen.

------
code4tee
It will be bad, although with the complete inability of UK leaders to get
anything done or make decisions much damage has already been done.

~~~
panpanna
Funny you wrote that.

The whole point of brexit was to be able to make their own decisions.

Didn't start off that well.

------
CraneWorm
Isn't "remain" option possible?

Pardon my kidnapping the thread, but I don't think HN would appreciate
splitting the discussion.

~~~
aosaigh
Yep, it's still possible but increasingly unlikely at this point. The U.K.
government have made an ultimatum today that the E.U. either accepts their
"new" deal, or they leave with none. This deal isn't acceptable to the E.U. so
there is an impasse.

~~~
J-dawg
Except that under the Benn act, the PM is legally obliged to seek an extension
from the EU if a deal isn't agreed.

~~~
aosaigh
Yes, good point. While I hope that this is the case, my feeling after today is
that the PM etc. doesn't care

~~~
J-dawg
Sadly that's my feeling too. He's already publicly said he would rather 'die
in a ditch' than ask for the extension

~~~
bengale
If the Liberal Democrats back down on Corbyn running a caretaker government we
could very well see a second referendum that would more than likely return a
remain result.

It certainly doesn't settle things, we're going to have these issues for years
to come, but may take us away from the cliff edge.

------
crispyporkbites
In NI:

\- Irish border posts are setup

\- Lots of confusion at the border

\- Small groups of young men throw rocks at the border guards

\- Escalations occur

\- People die

\- New era of the troubles ushered in

\- 10 years later and thousands killed / displaced

Meanwhile in scotland

\- Scottish referendum tabled

\- Overwhelming support to leave the UK and rejoin the EU

\- Referendum passes (just)

\- UK dissolves into England, Wales and NI

NHS still underfunded.

------
audessuscest
nothing special

~~~
aosaigh
Can you elaborate on why you think this? Genuine question

~~~
audessuscest
most important treaties will be negotiated under new treaties, as it's in
interest of both parties (people tend to forgot it's not in U.E. interest to
have no deal at all). If there was a real threat, The City would have already
left somewhere else, and it's not the case. Actually, it's pretty obvious that
U.E. makes everything they can to impeach the Brexit that's why I tend to
think the real threat is more for U.E. (as an institution) than for UK.

~~~
panpanna
Even if you were correct, negotiating treaties takes time and the British
politicians have already demonstrated major lack of skills in this area.

EU tried for 30 years to come to agreement with Brits. they dragged their feet
and caused lots of friction even when they had great offers. Why would things
be better this time?

~~~
audessuscest
U.E. has already treaty with many countries or others unions (like UE), so it
might be pretty easy. Also looks at economical situation in UE, they are not
in a situation where they can be in economical conflict with (or at least
isolated from) a country like UK

~~~
panpanna
Seriously, what is U.E. ?

~~~
audessuscest
...well, i'm french, it's written that way, but i can't seriously believe you
didn't guess. Right ? ;)

------
goatinaboat
We know exactly what happens because it’s actually defined in treaties,
specifically WTO rules will apply. The UK is a full member of WTO
independently of the EU. It’s important to remember that “the deal” isn’t a
thing that was mentioned on the pamphlet that went through everyone’s door
before the referendum. That just said that the government will implement
whatever the people vote for (which was to leave). It’s entirely something the
necessity of which was made up after the fact, as a face-saving measure by a
political class that badly misjudged the national mood.

It is obvious to anyone who has ever negotiated for anything, ever, that no
deal is better than a bad deal. Ask yourself why Remainers are so keen to take
that option off the table and keep asking for extensions indefinitely.

~~~
cannam
> It’s important to remember that “the deal” isn’t a thing that was mentioned
> on the pamphlet that went through everyone’s door before the referendum.

This was the pamphlet of the official Leave campaign:

[http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/our_case.html](http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/our_case.html)

It said "There is a free trade zone from Iceland to Turkey and the Russian
border and we will be part of it", and "Taking back control is a careful
change, not a sudden stop - we will negotiate the terms of a new deal before
we start any legal process to leave".

