
Unkown Unknowns: Why you should release early - danieka
https://www.danielk.se/post/releaseearly/
======
z3t4
One of my fears is that the first impression is so important. It's very hard
to make people try your product for a second time. Reviews get written and
it's not like people are gonna update their reviews when all the issues have
been fixed.

~~~
johns
There are a lot of people.

~~~
chrisper
If you get a 2 star average on yelp on grand opening of your new restaurant, a
lot of people won't even bother coming even if you fixed most of the
complaints.

~~~
ams6110
A lot of people don't use yelp.

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milesf
Clever title :) By releasing the article early, the typo is spotted quickly.

~~~
QuercusMax
I also enjoy that the HN title has a different typo than the article - "Unkown
Unknowns" vs "Unknown Unknows". And the heading in the article is "Unkown
Unknows". I can't tell if these are deliberate or not...

~~~
giancarlostoro
I was looking at this too, surprised it was not fixed on the HN side yet
considering how often submission titles get updated here.

~~~
grzm
Submission titles get updated if either the author (within a time limit) or a
mod notices that there's an error in the title. The mods don't see everything,
but do respond to email. If a title needs updating, you can contact the mods
via the Contact link in the footer.

------
nickpsecurity
I used to say you could release stuff often if it wasn't safety- or security-
critical. The latter should be reviewed & hit with various scenarios before
any release. The model of non-critical software seems to be purely time-to-
market, adding features, sometimes subtracting them as a differentiator, and
lock-in. This combo created several multi-billion dollar firms plus lots of
other shops raking in the big cash. Minus the lock-in, the model drives the
successful projects in FOSS. The bugs can be fixed later with patches which
can even be sold to customers. You win then win again.

These days I'll add any non-regulated, security-critical product to the list
of things to rush simply because most of them are crap. The likes of McAffee
and RSA Inc. got to the top with the security "features" w/ correct extra
stuff (eg tie-in's to Microsoft stack), sales teams, support, and so on. They
didn't do a lot on "assurance" that what they delivered was secure itself or
worked despite clever adversaries. So, if you want money or market share, just
do exactly what they did.

I will add that there's methods for developing software that still move
quickly while reducing defects. Particularly, if unreliability might hurt you,
follow Cleanroom methodology's take on testing by focusing on usage-driven
testing. Come up with as many scenarios as possible representing how users
will actually use the product. Make sure all those scenarios pass. That means
the defects that slip through are those average user might never see.
Obviously, things like memory-safe languages, interface checks, and quality
libraries from 3rd parties help, too. This collectively gets you better defect
rate than most of industry with hardly any extra work.

------
mooreds
And, as he mentions, release as much as possible without writing a single line
of code. Code gets expensive quickly. Expensive to scope, expensive to write,
expensive to change, expensive to maintain.

Write code when doing it manually is too painful.

~~~
tedmiston
In some sense this is the biggest strength of nontechnical cofounders:
defaulting to finding a way to test their hypotheses without writing code.

~~~
Mz
I wish I shared that sentiment. I am a non technical wannabe. I think I have
done a lot of important work so far in terms of figuring out what works, but I
feel like it will never get anywhere. Geez. And I envy the coders, who seem to
get so much more done.

The grass is always greener...

~~~
mooreds
Haha. Coders can get a lot of things done, but are they the right things?
Sometimes it can be so fun to build that you don't actually ship.

~~~
Mz
I am still not shipping. I also make a lot less money than coders.

Six of one, half dozen of the other...

~~~
mooreds
All I can tell you is that my co-founders weren't technical but the
relationships and market research they'd done made it far easier to build the
right product when I (as technical co-founder) came on board.

------
jdalt
> I know flossing is good, my dentist even claims it is essential. I don’t
> doubt he’s right.

The medical evidence for the efficacy of flossing is fairly scant:
[http://www.vox.com/2016/8/2/12352226/dental-floss-even-
work](http://www.vox.com/2016/8/2/12352226/dental-floss-even-work)

~~~
bouncingsoul
Yes. People might balk at your Vox link, but I'd advise anyone to look into it
themselves. There's little good research about flossing:
[http://skeptics.stackexchange.com/a/9611](http://skeptics.stackexchange.com/a/9611)

My personal belief is that flossing does _something_ since you can clearly see
food bits or whatever on used floss, but that's different from believing those
food bits wouldn't be removed by normal brushing anyway or that they even
cause harm.

~~~
tedmiston
Anecdata of course but my dentist always seems to remove little food bits
flossing during a checkup that weren't removed in brushing just before.

After the last checkup he recommended an automatic flossing machine
(Waterpik).

------
a3n
Mark Twain apparently did not say the opening quote.

[https://newrepublic.com/minutes/126677/it-aint-dont-know-
get...](https://newrepublic.com/minutes/126677/it-aint-dont-know-gets-trouble-
must-big-short-opens-fake-mark-twain-quote)

The link within the link: [http://quoteinvestigator.com/2015/05/30/better-
know/](http://quoteinvestigator.com/2015/05/30/better-know/)

------
acjohnson55
This reminds me of an article I read about a week ago:
[https://hackernoon.com/the-mvp-is-dead-long-live-the-
rat-233...](https://hackernoon.com/the-mvp-is-dead-long-live-the-
rat-233d5d16ab02)

~~~
mixmastamyk
Reads like the spiral dev model.

------
legulere
Unknown unknowns also is a reason for the opposite - to be more careful
releasing things that might be dangerous.

Often dangerous failures that happen are unknown unknowns. Fukushima is just
one example for this.

~~~
acidburnNSA
Fukushima wasn't an unknown unknown. The consequences of that event were
fairly preventable.

[http://mdcsystems.com/fukushima-dai-ichi-black-swan-event-
or...](http://mdcsystems.com/fukushima-dai-ichi-black-swan-event-or-
engineering-design-error/)

~~~
doall
It was preventable, but as the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office says,
it was not predictable. Aftermath is easy :)

~~~
Alex3917
> it was not predictable

How do you explain the fact that this exact scenario was predicted in advance
then? E.g.: [https://news.usc.edu/86362/fukushima-disaster-was-
preventabl...](https://news.usc.edu/86362/fukushima-disaster-was-preventable-
new-study-finds/)

~~~
pella
it is better: Taleb (2009)
[https://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb09/taleb09_index.html](https://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb09/taleb09_index.html)

TEN PRINCIPLES FOR A BLACK-SWAN-ROBUST WORLD

 _" 4\. Do not let someone making an “incentive” bonus manage a nuclear plant
– or your financial risks. Odds are he would cut every corner on safety to
show “profits” while claiming to be “conservative”. Bonuses do not accommodate
the hidden risks of blow-ups. It is the asymmetry of the bonus system that got
us here. No incentives without disincentives: capitalism is about rewards and
punishments, not just rewards."_

------
derwiki
> Your browser does not support grids. Upgrade or suffer the subpar layout.

Chrome? But OK, snark at me anyway..

~~~
stan_rogers
Have you restarted it recently? CSS Grid support without flags in mainstream
is very recent (last week?).

~~~
spectistcles
37% isn't exactly mainstream... to contrast, flexbox is at 97%

[http://caniuse.com/#search=grid](http://caniuse.com/#search=grid)

~~~
thejosh
latest version, not mainstream as in a lot of browsers support it.

------
mjevans
How I would define 'early':

    
    
      * First minimum viable product (core features) - clearly label as such
      * Take feedback from /customers/ (and those who claim they'd be if X were a feature; 'market research')
      * If possible use any existing off the shelf process**
    

__if there 's a concept of how the process might be streamlined / optimized /
customized / automated in full.

------
Bino
Don't confuse this with releasing buggy code (don't do that, it's really hard
to recover from), it's about features.

------
z3t4
Sometimes you'll have a really good product, that no one wants ... See Silicon
Valley TV series.

~~~
tedmiston
It's unclear what product or company on Silicon Valley or the show itself you
are referring to.

~~~
z3t4
I'm referring to the fictional PiedPiper product in the show
[http://www.piedpiper.com/](http://www.piedpiper.com/)

The show itself is also great.

------
GoToRO
The problem with realeasing early is that -early- is not clearly defined for
your project...

------
wadeboggs
Typo

~~~
franciscop
Typo: "your wrong" => "you're wrong".

Modern CSS that doesn't support my browser but the author is still a human (;

~~~
danieka
Thank you for pointing out the typo, after devastating shame I have now fixed
all instance of it, I hope :)

One benefit of running your own blog is being able to use the CSS you want ;)

~~~
nerdy
Nope. Any place "you are" makes sense should be "you're":

\- "If your not a domain expert..."

\- "No, it’s not the techniques your lacking."

~~~
danieka
Thank you for pointing that out, next time I publish I'll make sure to have a
friend proofread before hitting submit.

------
ge96
What if you don't even know what your "market" is or your "value" ie. what
you're selling?

edit: haha Dunning-Krueger effect, been a while since I used/looked at that
"word"

You don't floss? Gross haha. Can't say all the time but inevitably there's
crap in between your teeth. Oh well to each his own. I guess it depends where
you are/if floss is common thing to have.

Why did you separate A K A? Is that how it's written, time to Google.

