

El Niño Could Grow Into a Monster, New Data Show - mightybrenden
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/04/07/el_nino_2014_2015_forecasts_show_it_could_grow_into_a_monster.html

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mach5
or not. from NOAA:

The model predictions of ENSO for this summer and beyond are relatively
unchanged from last month. Almost all the models indicate that ENSO-neutral
(Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) will persist through the rest of the
Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (Fig. 6). While all models predict warming in
the tropical Pacific, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether El Niño
will develop during the summer or fall. If westerly winds continue to emerge
in the western equatorial Pacific, the development of El Niño would become
more likely. However, the lower forecast skill during the spring and overall
propensity for cooler conditions over the last decade still justify
significant probabilities for ENSO-neutral. The consensus forecast is for
ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, with
about a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall (click
CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

sooo flip a coin i guess?

[http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/en...](http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html)
[http://iri.columbia.edu/our-
expertise/climate/forecasts/enso...](http://iri.columbia.edu/our-
expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume)

