
A Recession Before 2020 Is Likely - cgmil
https://ntguardian.wordpress.com/2018/04/19/a-recession-before-2020-is-likely-on-the-distribution-of-time-between-recessions/
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Bucephalus355
Recession would be caused by the fact that $10 trillion was poured into the
economy during the Global Financial Crisis. Yet all this money failed to
really stimulate GDP. The reasons it failed are extensive and likely were
beyond fixing by any Central Banking policy anyway.

It also was worsened by the fact that likely another $5-$10 trillion is
leaking into world’s economy, unreported, via opaque Chinese banking
regulations and currency schemes. One way this has been deduced is that if you
add up all the values of the world’s exports and imports...they should equal
each other right? But the thing is...they don’t, and they’re off by trillions
of dollars.

td;lr: it’s like a person taking steroids for the last 10 years, only bench
pressing a few more pounds by the end of it, all the while aging and building
disease on the inside. And also they’re committing wire fraud.

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wahern
There are over $200 trillion in global stock and bond assets, and over $300
trillion including loans. That should put QE into perspective.

The problem is that the world is awash in cash and not enough interesting-
enough investments. OTOH, in no other time in history could a company like
SpaceX have existed. OTOOH, companies like SpaceX, Amazon, etc, with huge
upsides set the bar really high. Nobody wants to invest in some low-yield
market when people believe (rightly or wrongly) they could quintuple their
money somewhere else.

It turns out that financial markets aren't anywhere close to being as fluid
and efficient as once believed. They're sticky and irrational in all the ways
people are elsewhere in the economy.

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brad0
This is really cool and I wish I knew more statistics to fully grasp it.

I can’t see what would cause the recession though. Interest rates are only
just starting to rise.

Though to be fair if the media says the economy is good then it’s time to pull
out. If the media says the economy is bad it’s time to invest.

