
Ten Theses on Tablets - jackowayed
http://www.tbray.org/ongoing/When/201x/2010/10/09/Theses-on-Tablets
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lionhearted
Good article.

You know how people tend to forget their stupid ideas over time and think
they're smarter? I just want to publicly own that I thought tablets weren't
going to be a big deal before the iPad launch. I thought Apple fans would buy
it, but then it wouldn't take off. I was mistaken.

I'm already starting to re-write my memory with, "Oh yeah, of course it was
going to be big" so I wanted to publicly own my poor prediction before my mind
conveniently rewrites itself.

~~~
kenjackson
I think you're in good company. My thought process timeline:

Before Apple announces: Tablets are dead. Typing is just too convenient, and I
don't want an underpowered laptop (which a lot of tablets were, with touch
screens).

During the 1st half of the Apple announcement: This thing is ugly, and is
really just a big iPhone. FAIL.

During the 2nd half of the Apple announcement: Since when did the Apple tax
become the Apple discount? At those prices, I'll take two! And it slowly began
dawning on me that it being a "big iPhone" was actually genius. How did so few
people grok that this was the exact right thing to do? Now it's just common
knowledge that upsizing your touch phone OS is a smart thing to do.

After getting my first one: Two heavy, but it was clear that at 7" the iPad is
with me everywhere. Even at 10", while not ideal for me, I can see it being
great for a lot of people.

The evolution on how people feel about the tablet is an interesting and
complex one. I give Apple the credit for making me a believer.

~~~
glhaynes
Your timeline made me smile and remember my experience on iPad introduction
day.

5 minutes before keynote: "Well one thing we can be sure of, it's not just
gonna be a big iPhone! haha"

During: "Hmmmm... it's really just a big iPhone? Kinda cool for some people I
guess, but it's certainly not for me."

Later that evening, after thinking about it for a while: "Oh, of course! A big
iPhone! What else would it be?"

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stcredzero
I can't decide if Apple is going to come out with a 7" tablet or not. There's
definitely a place for something that fits into a labcoat but offers a lot
more screen real estate than a phone.

On the con side, there's also something to be said for concentrating one's
efforts on just a few offerings.

~~~
cletus
I disagree that Apple are going to come out with a 7" iPad in the short or
even medium term. Years from now? Who knows?

I think the divide with form factors is: does it fit in your pocket? 3-4"
phone? Yes. 10"? No. 7"? Still no.

I believe there are so many more use cases for 10" that Apple didn't just pick
that number out of a hat. For example, I own a Sony Reader (6"). Great for
reading novels. Terrible for technical books (and, by extension, textbooks).

I can hold my iPad on one hand. Thing is though, I don't. I really don't know
what the use case is for holding it one handed. It's always sitting on a table
or desk, on my lap or on my chest (if lying down).

~~~
natrius
I've recently acquired a... satchel? Man bag? Okay, it's basically a purse. My
iPad is slightly too big to fit inside comfortably. A 7" tablet would probably
be the perfect size for that.

~~~
bruceboughton
I've recently bought a new wallet. The iPad doesn't fit in that either...

~~~
natrius
If we assume that most people want the largest screen that they can
comfortably carry around with them, there are a lot of people who could fit 7"
in a purse-like sack, but can't fit the 10" iPad.

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seltzered
Let's assume the device is focused on creativity - drawing and writing (also
assume the device records pen input well and has a retina screen):

10" tablet screen size ~~ display size of a legal pad.

7" tablet screen size ~~ display size of a large todo pad.

I like using a legal pad already for drawing/note-taking, but if the fact that
it's electronic let's me express what I want with less screen space, It may be
worth getting something smaller.

###

I also can't get around the author's idea of carrying an EVO in my pocket.
Especially If I plan to use the same device while running/cramming into
jeans/etc. It's definately a great purse-able phone for women though.

~~~
smackfu
What kind of legal pad are you talking about? My iPad screen is about half the
size of a piece of paper, so that would be a junior legal pad at best.

~~~
glhaynes
I had to hold up a piece of letter sized paper to my iPad to verify this.
Funny, I think of the iPad as more like 80% of the size of a piece of paper,
but in actuality, you're right: it's more like 50%.

~~~
seltzered
doh, I meant a steno pad ~~ ipad. They measure 6" x 9" - pythagorean says this
is about a 10.8" screen. Ipad screen size is 9.7".

pic of steno pad: <http://content.etilize.com/500/1010042931.jpg>

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bergie
I've completely stopped using my laptop at home in favor of the iPad. Tablet
is for casual browsing and eBooks, the laptop is for "real work". This
distinction helps quite a bit with the work-life balance.

Now tablets are obviously quite a new form factor, and so I'm waiting with
interest on when there will be actual "work apps" for one of them. I've
already done a bit of on-device software development with my N900 phone (there
is even Git available there!), but the input devices can be limited for this.
Maybe a win for "special character -free" languages like Python and Genie ;-)

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jrockway
Copenhagen has a wrong part?

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cletus
When the iPad was announced I was on the fence but what became apparent rather
quickly was that there was an clear divide in opinion between those who had
used the device and those that hadn't. Many pundits argued against its success
on the basis that it couldn't replace any existing niche. While true, it
created its own niche and replaced several devices for _some_ of their
functions.

But in no way did I predict the runaway success of the iPad.

After that became apparent I did make one prediction that I'll stand by: many
clones will be announced, only a few of them will ship and they'll suck for at
least the first year. Maybe two.

We're in year what? 9? of the iPod and yet the competition still isn't as
slick. I see the same future for the iPad. There will be the iPad and "the
rest".

As for Tim's arguments:

1\. Phones aren't going away: agreed.

2\. Pocket creep: disagree. I like the size of the iPhone 4. The 4"+ phones
just seem a little too big;

3\. 10" for sharing: I don't really accept the premise. I view the iPad as a
very personal (even intimate) computing device. Passing it back and forth
isn't really what I'd call sharing. You can do that with anything you can pick
up. Sharing I would view as two or more people looking at it at the same time;

4\. 7" for personal: disagree. Many people, myself include, love the size of
the iPad. Eyesight comes into this as well, particularly for older users. 7"
to me fails the pocket test and (imho) the pocket test will be the
differentiator in form factors.

Also regarding weight: on the couch it sits on your lap. When lying down you
rest it on your chest. When at a desk or table it's on that surface. On a
plane I rest my arm on the armrest or lap and hold the iPad. Basically I'm
never holding it in the air. I believe this is a common "beginner mistake".
It's natural but you quickly learn better. Another common error: holding it by
it's edge rather than your hand underneath in the center of gravity, which is
much much easier.

5\. No bigger: agree.

6\. Battery life: agree. It seems Apple will be the king of battery life for
some time to come.

7\. Cameras: disagree. Cameras work for PCs and notebooks because the position
(at the top of the screen, typically) is eye level. In none of the
aforementioned positions would a front facing camera be at a natural or
flattering position. I'm not saying cameras won't be added but I don't think
the use case is as compelling as some make out.

Basically, who wants to look up someone's nostrils?

As for rear cameras, the weight issue once again comes into play. No one wants
to hold it up.

8\. Creativity: creative people will do creative things on tablets. Uncreative
people won't. It's really as simple as that. Frankly, I found the argument
that the iPad is purely a consumption device to be condescending, even
pretentious. I do agree that you won't see any serious programming done on
tablets. You need a keyboard, mouse and large display for that.

9\. Aspect ratio: I can't see these things going to 16:10 or 16:9. They simply
don't have the height for it (I make the same argument when some people
inexplicably buy 19" widescreen monitors: they're letter boxes).

10\. Games: tablets are great for these. I certainly play Angry Birds on my
iPad.

Where I believe the Galaxy Tab really falls down is that _it seems_ to be tied
to carriers and a 2 year contract. That's a big fail right there and something
the iPad got absolutely right.

Leaked prices also suggest it's $399... on a 2 year contract.

~~~
bergie
For home sharing some sort of accounts support would be great for a tablet.
Contractually I'm not allowed to have even family members accessing my
calendar, email, browser passwords etc.

~~~
cletus
Apple has a similar problem in some ways to what Windows had: Windows
developed as a GUI layer on top of DOS. DOS and early Windows were single user
operating systems. All the multi-user stuff that has come to Windows since has
felt tacked on. *nix on the other hand was built from the ground up as a
multi-user OS.

The iPad is less elegant in this scenario. I believe this highlights Apple's
philosophy that the iPad is a personal computing device more than anything
else. So rather than creating a complicated multi-user system, they opted for
simplicity.

On a side note: your calendar and mail problem can probably be solved by using
restrictions to put passwords on those apps, which you should probably have
anyway if the content is sensitive.

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zacharypinter
I'd be curious to try out a 7" tablet. Right now, the iPad seems like the
perfect size for reading technical PDF's. I don't think (but am not sure) that
a 7" tablet would accomplish that well.

~~~
smackfu
Even on the iPad, the display is only the size of a half-sheet of paper.

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glhaynes
I found it surprising how little experience he seems to have with the iPad —
he even says he hasn't played _any_ games on one. If I were in his position
I'd have dabbled with every major genre of app _at least_ a little bit to get
a feel for what this new category of devices is like and what the
possibilities/strengths/weaknesses are... hell, I've done that and I'm just a
consumer/pretend-iPad-developer.

