

Real Life Prisoners Dilemma with $100k at Stake [vid] - bokonist
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3Uos2fzIJ0

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zealog
_Spoiler warning_

When watching this the first time the facial expression at 2:29 clearly gives
away the outcome. The pinched lips is a classic poker tell for discomfort in
honesty. While in a poker game an experienced player can hide or mix in false
tells, this completely jumped out at me.

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RiderOfGiraffes
Not actually the Prisoners' Dilemma - the payout matrix is wrong, but close
enough, and gut wrenching. From the interviews after it seems that there's
some baggage from the earlier parts of the game.

Interesting to see it (or something close enough) in action.

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ugh
Not the classic payoff matrix, right. But isn’t the end result the same? The
best answer to split is steal (100% > 50%). The best answer to steal? Well,
they look the same (you get 0% no matter what you pick), but you don’t know
what your partner picks. And steal is the dominant strategy. So in the end you
should pick steal. And that’s a classic prisoner’s dilemma. Any faults with my
logic?

(This all obviously assumes that your utility is equivalent to the amount of
money. It might not be. You might value not coming across as an asshole pretty
high.)

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spiffage
In general, yes. Stealing is the way to go.
<http://lesswrong.com/lw/tn/the_true_prisoners_dilemma/>

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mahmud
Wow, somebody is going to be friendless for a very long time. But in my
opinion, it's better to be betrayed than betray someone.

P.S. Please don't spoil it for those who haven't seen it yet.

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andybak
It's quite interesting how emotionally involved I got watching a couple of
these. I had to stop because it was making me angry.

When I first read about the Prisoner's Dilemma in a Douglas Hofstadter book
(probably Godel, Escher and Bach although I'm not sure) I went around reading
everything I could about it as I felt it was saying something important about
society. Today I'm not entirely sure that's the case but it still fascinates
me...

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brtzsnr
Can anybody explain what's the most rational decision?

I believe that you should always call "steal". On average (assuming you don't
know what the other person will choose) you get more money (1.0 if you steal
versus 0.5 if you split) and you can never be betrayed.

More than that: each player decides whether the other player takes any money
or not. However since the players decisions are independent it doesn't make
sense to say 'split'.

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bokonist
Yeah, stealing would be the most rational thing to do (in the strict sense,
disregarding any feelings of guilt a person might have).

This game really illustrates the importance of repeated games and quid pro quo
in human relationships. What makes human society function is that we can
actually create binding contracts, and that we increase trust with people over
time, on the basis of mutual give and take.

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ugh
“Yeah, stealing would be the most rational thing to do.”

But only if your utility (roughly) corresponds to the money involved. The sums
of money might just be big enough for that to be (roughly) true.

~~~
bokonist
Right.

