
Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years? - hereiskkb
In relation to the Technological and Geo-political landscape.
======
virgilp
True story: inspired by some dude on the internet, I thought I'd try my hand
at "predictions". I made a post with my technology predictions for the next 10
or 15 years (not 50, I'm not THAT naive).

I don't have a personal website, so I placed that post on Google+, to have it
for future reference. Boy, do I suck at predictions.

~~~
gt2
What were they?

~~~
jvzr
Somehow, one involved Google+ staying alive.

------
monkeycantype
The ecosystem has collapsed, humanity's last holdout - the salesforce.com
trailhead Antarctica bunker is lifeless and silent, but hope is not lost - the
probe holding Elon Musk's semen journeys onward to alpha proxima.

------
notarized_off
The war on general purpose computing will arrive, finish quickly and be won by
the totalitarians.

Normal computers will not be permitted to produce code. All developers will
have to submit passport and dna before being allowed to work. Computers
capable of producing code will be accounted for centrally, it will be illegal
to own one without a licence.

Cash will be done away with by the following means or similar:

[https://blogs.imf.org/2019/02/05/cashing-in-how-to-make-
nega...](https://blogs.imf.org/2019/02/05/cashing-in-how-to-make-negative-
interest-rates-work/)

------
ggm
Significant dislocations of coastal population will cause shifts in
demographics and voting. Some regimes will fall because of it, the UN Charter
on refugees will be amended.

Resentment against entrenched industry shills and oligarchy will lead to extra
judicial acts of revenge. The actors behind this will not coalesce the way
religious fundamentalism has, but will be understood as a common root cause
much as luddism was.

A new small C conservatism will replace radically economic reductionism of the
Chicago school kind, massive public works and Keynesian intervention will
predominate. Low tax regimes will find the cost of corporatism in health and
lifestyle terms counter productive, extreme wealth taxes and punishments for
evasion will be international.

Literacy will not fall, but writing will be uncommon.

Google will be remembered fondly before dismemberment. Facebook will be
regarded as an aberation. Religions will compete on TV. Access to intelligent
agents (not aware ai but ubiquitous use of ai derived optimisation and machine
learning based systems) will be almost a right, where access to data is a
right, albeit only if identified. Use of VPN and data hiding will be a first
class felony in itself and linked to some kind of precrime with presumption of
innocence lost.

~~~
non-entity
> Literacy will not fall, but writing will be uncommon.

I wonder if this is already a reality for some. I can't remember the last time
I had to write more than my name.

~~~
bjourne
Think that through one more time. :)

------
CptFribble
Changing attitudes to advertisements and the upcoming generation's obsession
with "authenticity" will push all brands and ads further into "lifestyle"-type
presentation. Every furniture store and potato chip company will have social
accounts for sharing memes.

Brand loyalty will merge deeper into the human experience, and in the 50-100
year timescale few living humans will be able to conceive of brands and
products as separate from their personal identity. Boundaries between socio-
economic groups will become more strongly reinforced along product lines (I
believe this has already begun - see the Chik-fil-A/Hobby Lobby protests and
reaction, or the reaction from both sides to Nike's support of Colin
Kaepernick, and other recent corporate "woke" behavior).

Much more of the written words we consume in any form (newspaper, online
opinion articles, listicles, etc) will be secretly sponsored, written by and
for the benefit of a particular product, brand, or interest group. Even
seemingly unrelated things, like local news, will be used to manage global
brand visibility at scale as ML's ability to write comprehensibly comes into
its own and articles are produced algorithmically.

Similar algorithmic information delivery systems will be used to drive even
more granular opinion influence for things like state and county elections.
Exploitation of outdated laws and regulations, and things like gerrymandering,
will become even worse than we could have imagined as the tools to locate and
predict vote probabilities at the individual level becomes even more powerful.

------
werber
I'm hopeful for a more cooperative human centric future. I think we have the
technology to replace old systems and ideas. Things are getting better more
then they're getting worse for so many people and I really want to see that
pattern accelerate to the point all preventable disease is addressed and
access to medical care is universal, there is no risk of famine due to
technology advances in food production, there is no war, for obvious reasons.
And on the other hand, I worry that human beings will mostly be dead and areas
that are currently landlocked will be a costal town for the few remaining rich
people who have replaced the need for the lower classes by automation. But
mostly the former

~~~
perfunctory
> costal town for the few remaining rich people who have replaced the need for
> the lower classes by automation

In this scenario there will be no industry left to speak of to support the
automation. The remaining people, regardless of their initial wealth, will not
be rich.

~~~
werber
I don't really think about this in a real way. I think we are going to be ok,
but like this is my fever dream

~~~
werber
Rather nightmare

------
timonoko
Nothing of real significance will happen. I know this for a fact this because
in 1967 I wrote about 2017. Nothing become true, Finland does not have Space
Forces, cars do not fly, lasers do remove space junk from orbit etcetc.

The Lasering of space junk was part of Finland's 100 year celebration, instead
of fireworks the worn-out space-vessel "Kokko" was destroyed with lasers.

~~~
username90
You think nothing of real significance happened between 1967 and 2017? The
90's was extreme with both internet and cellphones becoming mainstream,
suddenly you no longer needed several bookshelves full of encyclopedias just
to look up information and everyone was reachable from anywhere! 2000's and
2010's where pretty lackluster in comparison as they just fleshed out the
offerings from the 90's, but we could very well have another decade similar to
the 90's again.

~~~
timonoko
I had a personal computer in 1975. And radio amateurs had a pocketable device
he could make phone calls everywhere in Finland. The coverage was probably
better than cell-phones today, because at 7 Mhz. I also had internet address
in 1985: timonoko@nokia.fi.

Nothing much else has happened in last 30 years.

[https://www.flickr.com/photos/timonoko/102552851/in/album-72...](https://www.flickr.com/photos/timonoko/102552851/in/album-72057594100241331/)

~~~
username90
You having a computer or your friend having a cellphone didn't change the
world, internet and cellphones becoming cheap and mainstream did.

------
ronilan
It’s a little less than 50 years away by now, so the schedule is clearly
getting tight, and it is also a huge undertaking, so nothing should be taken
for granted, but given current technology, it might actually be possible for a
human to walk on the surface of the moon by July 20 2069.

------
Abishek_Muthian
Music(Songs) at-least in English language would be largely, completely machine
generated.

Reasoning: songs leading the charts are mostly written by same lyricists,
music is largely dependent on auto tunes, repetitive sections, machine
learning algorithms for audio processing is growing at a fast rate.

~~~
estomagordo
Possibly true for the horrendous muzak-like audial otyughs known as chart
music. People will never cease to make artistically meaningful music, though.

------
pgcj_poster
\- Google will continue to exist, but lose relevance to emerging companies,
similar to IBM.

\- Virtual reality headsets will replace both smartphones and desktop
computers.

\- Roe v. Wade will be overturned, but the constitution will be amended to
protect abortion rights.

\- Brexit will continue being delayed indefinitely.

\- San Francisco will start its own Navy.

\- White people will become a minority in the United States, but a majority in
Japan.

\- Cranston, Rhode Island exceed Paris, France in tourists/year, but not in
total revenue from tourism.

\- A saintly king[1] will take control of France, conquer Greece, and convert
the entire world to Catholicism.

\- The Higgs Boson particle will remain undiscovered.

\- Ohio will become a Marxist-Leninist one-party state.

\- The Jewish Messiah will arrive, and construct the 3rd temple. It will be
converted into a Walmart due to lack of attendance.

\- The Scandinavian language will split into three mutually unintelligible
dialects: Danish, Swedish, and Norwegian. In Iceland, everyone will just speak
English.

\- North and South Korea will be re-united, but subsequently re-partitioned
into East and West Korea due to partisan violence.

\- Harvard and MIT will be combined into a single institution, which will
exclusively grant degrees in "Religious Studies," "Computer Engineering," and
"Religious Studies And Computer Engineering."

\- London, Chicago, and several other major cities will cease to exist.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_Roman_Emperor#Catholic_tr...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_Roman_Emperor#Catholic_tradition)

------
tyzerdak
More regulations More border between authocratic countries and western More
military budgets, less economy grow More brainwashed people More monopolies in
hi-tech, although it won't be monopoly but in fact 99% will go to 1-5
companies. More protectonism, less global economic grow Oil will be slowly
going down in price. Although not that much for authocratic regime fall, they
just become more and more authocratic. But at least it should make them eat
themselves. Slowly percentage of retarded people will grow in such countries
as money flow from oil decreases. And clever people will immigrate to west.

Elon musk will make some cash on tourists to the moon but nothing
revolutional. Maybe they will make some hotel on moon for rich people to have
fun.

------
jdkee
Authoritarian states win against democracies.

~~~
mcv
This is clearly the big struggle of today. Will democracies survive in the
face of rising authoritarianism?

------
jacknews
Real dairy only comes from hobby farms - artificial milk is at least as good,
and tuned for it's final use as drinking milk, cream, cheese, etc, and
different health needs.

Many juices and even some pulps, flours etc, are also largely made using
engineered yeasts and bacteria. Fruit is reserved for eating directly, or
adding as an additive to gain a 'made with real fruit' label.

Similarly most real meat is more a speciality food, reserved for steaks,
roasts, ribs, etc, anything processed (minced beef, chicken fillets, soups,
curries, pies, sausages) is made using artificial meat. Much pasture is
reforested.

------
kalesh
We might have a cure to most diseases available to all or only a few would be
able to afford good healthcare & rest will have shorter lifespans.

Economic inequality would increase manifolds. There will be less poverty but a
whole lot of people struggling for basic healthcare & jobs.

Automation, Robots & AI will be an integral part of society.

Virtual worlds might be as important as real ones. Virtual real estate might
be worth more than physical real estate.

People will be dumber as no real problems or creative jobs to work on.

E-sports might be more popular than actual sport.

Some cities might be lost due to sea leval rise.

------
bkohlmann
In 50 years time, someone on this list will be mostly (or at least
directionally) right in their predictions. If they are still alive, they will
be lauded as a savant and sage. The more outlandish the 2019 prediction was,
if correct, the more recognition they will receive.

And thus all we will actually learn in 50 years time is that human nature
changes very little. We will still retrospectively reward success based on
chance alone, not distinctive insight.

In short, statistics will continue to be an underappreciated practice.

------
vfc1
I think a lot of applications will be built without the need for developers,
significantly reducing the number of professional developers needed.

Also, testing will be fully AI automated, other than some initial
configuration there won't be the need to write tests manually.

Anything that can be done by robots and AI will be done by robots and AI.
Things like driving, house cleaning and cooking (at least for restaurants)
will be fully done by robots.

~~~
lotsofpulp
I’ll take the opposite side of that prediction - driving, cooking, and
cleaning will be part of the jobs that people compete to get, as the data
entry and middle management jobs get wiped out.

I don’t think anything that involves physical variations (I.e. manual labor in
differing environments) will be automated for a long time.

------
Balgair
Tech: CRISPR-CAS9 and better bioengineering. It's slow going stuff, but hot
damn, is it ever powerful. By definition it plays well with itself. The 'cross
products' are tough to deal with, thus the slow going part, but when it does
mesh, man oh man!

Geo-Political: Africa's rise. ~2.5 Billion people are going to be born in
Africa in the next 50 years. By 2050, the median wage for a family in Africa
is going to be ~$65k/yr (in 2010 dollars). Most families will have 2 kids or
less there. Africa is transitioning from stage 1-2 into stage 3-4. From
walking and bicycles to cars and planes. Those markets and those young people
will be very thirsty for better goods, services, education, financial
planning, democratic representation, etc. Generally, the center of global
trade is going to shift from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean and the people
that ring the old monsoon markets. Addis Abba's already has a metro system
that serves ~700k people a day. The bullet train from Nairobi to Mombassa is
already going ~300km/hr. Kenya already has a ~600MW geothermal power station
(~1/3 of Hoover Dam). Nigeria's Eko Atlantic project is ~half done with
reclaiming ~200 Manhattan's worth of land area from the Atlantic Ocean. It's
'Great Wall of Africa' is mostly done now and is proofed to the worst climate
change can throw at it, due in part to the 8 weather satellites that Nigeria
has currently in orbit. Africa is going to be where a young, vibrant, well
educated, culturally diverse, middle class is trying to make it's mark and
improve the lives of their children. It is most assuredly not a place of
'shit-hole countries', and The Import-Export Bank of China knows this. The
West should know to shelve the racism, and fast, for the good of it's geo-
political future and it's pocket-book.

------
void_ita
1) developers won't be needed anymore ([https://medium.com/thron-tech/as-a-
service-offering-is-chang...](https://medium.com/thron-tech/as-a-service-
offering-is-changing-what-a-developer-is-ce56c653b041)) 2) population decline
will be huge, but not for the reasons most ppl talk about. It will be because
we will reach a "good enough" sex robot and that will end most physical
relationships between sexes 3) there will be just one or two languages in the
whole world, with a huge loss in diversity from a culture standpoint 4) we
will be augmented with tech and bio implants to enhance our perceptions
(better sight and hearing). Genetical imperfection will be only for poor
people 5) cars will be disappearing in favor of "transportation pods" that
will act as "transport-as-a-service" elements. 6) HUGE wars will arise because
of the crisis in capitalims. Work won't be a reason to get a salary anymore,
this will lead to the biggest social crisis ever and many more... but i'll
stop here :D

~~~
bksenior
Ive long said that a good enough/affordable sex robot is more dangerous to the
western civilization than literally any weapon of mass destruction.

~~~
majewsky
I want a scifi novel where those "good enough sex robots" end up being dropped
into foreign countries as a weapon of mass depopulation.

------
tomjen3
For the US:

With lab-grown meat agriculture has mostly collapsed, since most of it was
either meat or food for meat production.

Most small cities are essentially dead, at least in terms of opportunities to
improve ones life, since there are no jobs for low skilled workers. Those jobs
were mostly meat plants or trucking and transport is done with automated
trucks. There were other jobs but those where mostly in support of those jobs,
or incidental to peoples life.

High Skilled workers have moved to the cities, but most of their income is
eaten up by rent. Those who got there earlier and got a reasonably affordable
place to live are making a lot of money.

Both suffer a lot less because things have continued to get cheaper -- you
don't need to travel the world with good enough 3d glasses, most things we
have physically today are available in "phones" (though nobody knows why they
are called that anymore, as nobody use them to make old style phone calls).
Without meat production, most oil-based transport and most stuff the
environment is doing okay. It helps that not too many babies are being born
(turns out, 3d porn is just that much nicer).

On an international scene things are looking much better: most of the world
has cached up to the standard of living the US had in 1980, with the exception
of basket case countries that are essentially still basket cases (North Korea,
Eritrea). China has court up with the US and are beginning to face the same
problems the US had, though somewhat dampened by the lack of freedom. Despite
this, they have had to find make work projects for their people, and have had
to grant more and more freedom to stay in power.

In short the world will be a lot freer, a lot more equal, but inside countries
there will be a lot less hope and those countries will be much less equal.

------
estomagordo
Since at least medieval times, civilization as a whole has tended to move
towards freer, more democratic societies - almost without any meaningful,
lengthy changes. This is particularly true since the industrial revolution.
(Correct me if I'm wrong above.)

Given this, I find it hard to believe that future societies would somehow
become more oppressive. Rather, I think true democracy will have reached
virtually, if not practically, all of the world. Menial tasks have largely
become automated. Most people are well fed, secure and have access to
education and information. Brick and mortar stores (be they for clothing,
groceries or anything else) are largely a thing of luxury.

Speaking of education, most societies do not emphasize a traditional
educational path involving 3-5 years at universities like they do now. Higher
institutions now play a larger role but the benefits of technology in
information diffusion and communication now means we have more meaningful and
regarded ways of acquiring knowledge in other places, in other periods of life
and at different paces.

~~~
badpun
> Since at least medieval times, civilization as a whole has tended to move
> towards freer, more democratic societies - almost without any meaningful,
> lengthy changes. This is particularly true since the industrial revolution.
> (Correct me if I'm wrong above.)

This is a very Eurocentric view. In the rest of the world, this mostly wasn't
(and still isn't) the case.

~~~
estomagordo
Yeah, I realize I'm being rather eurocentric. The setbacks have been longer
and more plentiful in Africa and Asia, but I maintain that the trend is also
true there.

~~~
badpun
Where exactly? I'd say that democracies took root only in places (such as
India, Japan) which were conquered and then organized by western countries.
Other than that, not so much.

~~~
estomagordo
I don't know of any African countries where the people's democratic freedoms
are much more prevalent today than they were centuries ago.

------
matthewfelgate

      - All transport is electric and self-driving
      - Most meat is made artificially or non-meat substitutes 
      - New world order will be USA-India-Japan-Iran Vs China-Russia-Vietnam. (Europe to stay neutral)
      - Home robots doing chores
      - Lots of jobs have been automated leading to change in work
      - Maximum workweek hours reduced to 4-days or flexible working
      - Trips to the moon as regular as satellite launches and ISS trips are today
      - Underground (and undersea( road tunnels connecting most of the world
      - Advances in tracking and objective measurement of *everything* (Health, happiness etc)
      - World energy needs mostly run off renewable resources (wind, solar, hydro)
      - Borderless travel for most people across most countries
      - Spread and establishment of liberal democracy across most countries
      - World population more stable

------
davex
I agree on most of the arguments in the book "The Sovereign Individual" on
what will most probably happen in the next decades. Summary:
[https://www.nateliason.com/notes/sovereign-
individual](https://www.nateliason.com/notes/sovereign-individual)

~~~
distances
I managed to read the summary. Sounded like blockchain-sovereign citizen
crossover fanfic.

~~~
davex
the book was written in 1999, far before a blockchain existed

------
solresol
\- Demographic projections say that we'll be reaching "peak human" where
depopulation starts happening, and the urbanisation of humanity should be just
about finished. So that should end real estate as being a valuable investment;
it becomes a liability where liveable accommodation goes derelict because
there's no-one to live in it.

\- If we have fusion power, even if the reactor is the size of a battleship,
every country's military will have a space program.

\- Transportation continues to become cheaper, faster and more autonomous.
There's no point in owning anything any more because you can rent it and have
it delivered as quickly as you could get it out of a cupboard. You just pay a
flat monthly fee depending on what levels of luxury you want, and that
entitles you to whatever you need.

------
nostrademons
After Second American Civil War of 2025 and the following Drone Wars across
the globe, the nation-state system will fall. It'll be replaced by a mix of
city-states near the coasts and corporate territories in the hinterlands, with
the two existing in an uneasy tension.

Several city-states (notably SFBay, NYC DC, Pearl River, Amsterdam, Venice,
Florida, and Houston) will be wiped off the map, either by the Drone Wars or
by rising sea levels and increasingly violent storms. Also, regions like the
American Midwest, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and the
Bengal/Burma/Myanmar area will be severely depopulated as regional conflicts
and border skirmishes lead to the near-extinction of the local populace from
drone cleansing efforts. Sub-Saharan Africa (now split between the Corporate
States of Alcoa, DeBeers, and BP) will still be populated, but not by
Africans. The Corporate State of ExxonMobil in Northern Athabasca will be a
rising power, as will be the Corporate States of Monsanto in Canada and
Russia. The City States of Barrow, Cambridge Bay, Taloyoak, and Fort Ross will
be rising economic powers on the Arctic Ocean, as will be there lesser-
populated equivalents in Siberia. The Corporate State of SpaceX will just be
establishing the first Mars colony.

Standards of living for the survivors will be high. The near complete
destruction of existing infrastructure in the Drone Wars will allow surviving
cities to rebuild with more modern technology; in particular, the widespread
adoption of robotics in that conflict means that most daily transportation and
logistic problems are taken care of by machines. Everything is electrified,
powered by renewable solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal sources. The severe
depopulation in the Drone Wars means that the survivors are able to bargain
for higher wages and better working conditions, and many Corporate States are
run as egalitarian worker collectives (albeit at the cost of oppressing or
exterminating the native populations they displace). City States face
continued inequality, though, as they struggle to care for skill-less refugees
that were not killed in the Drone Wars.

------
mutant_rvalue2
Food gets expensive, everything else gets cheap. No jobs. High skilled
freelances paying huge amounts of money. Everyone has a bot, and bots are more
popular than cars. Cars become just fun. Temporary public service grants
minimal food. Almost no crime, everything is tracked. Web become VR and too
deep to have a human guide, google VR guide is the most popular. Google and
Facebook become gov in some territories. A wide range of variety of electronic
devices in sizes and formats, weareable. And.... bots are not that smart yet,
not like a money machine. But smart enough to play anything together. PRO
CPU/GPUS's only in the cloud for rent.

------
oicu812
The best book I've read on this topic is Homo Deus: A Brief History of
Tomorrow. [1]

It really got me thinking about the next 50 years now that famine, disease and
war are all manageable. The next 50 years will have super human AI, billions
of superfluous people and eternal life for the privileged few. [2]

[1] [https://www.amazon.com/Homo-Deus-Brief-History-Tomorrow-
dp-0...](https://www.amazon.com/Homo-Deus-Brief-History-Tomorrow-
dp-0062464310/dp/0062464310/)

[2] [https://www.getabstract.com/en/summary/homo-
deus/28074](https://www.getabstract.com/en/summary/homo-deus/28074)

~~~
ChristianGeek
The best movie on this topic is “Idiocracy,” a fantastic documentary.

------
xorand
Started as a joke here on HN, there is a series of predictions based on a
numerical correspondence between the intervals [1436,+\infty) and
[1969,+\infty), where:

\- 1436 is the invention of the printing press and

\- 1969 is the start of the ARPANET.

Many of them are postdictions (to validate the correspondence) but the funny
thing is that the series ends in the year 2024, where there is a sort of
singularity, because the interval [1436,1969] maps to [1969,2024].

[https://mbuliga.github.io/gutenberg-
net.html](https://mbuliga.github.io/gutenberg-net.html)

------
crusty511
50 years seems to medium term predictions, which is near impossible to
predict.

For everything else.

[https://www.futuretimeline.net/](https://www.futuretimeline.net/)

------
geowwy
WRT technology, I expect a technological plateau within our lifetime.

In geo-politics, USA will not be the sole superpower anymore:

* China will continue to regain its historical prominence/prestige

* EU will seek more and more independence from the US

* Turkey will look to form its own union of states in the Eastern Mediterranean (kind of a neo-byzantine/neo-ottoman empire)

* Brazil and India will continue to do well

* Russia and Iran's future not so certain

I think the transition will _probably_ be relatively smooth, but we'll have to
wait and see.

------
ramblerman
\- VR will make it, and become commonplace

\- Deep fake ai type technology will allow for quasi automatic generation of
landscapes, castles and people making creating your own video game or movie a
matter of story writing, and letting the computer fill in the details.

\- China's growth will slow down drastically as more and more reach the middle
class.

\- Most middle eastern dictatorships will get into trouble with the loss of
oil money.

\- South America grows as a market, and becomes more stable

------
bobbydreamer
World will get hotter, ice will melt. Sea water conversion to drinking water
will become major project.

Air conditioner/purifier business will grow.

Artificial foods will give rise to new diseases. Cancers will rise.

Cars will be detachables.

More loners than ever.

Real estates will boom in VR.

------
newyankee
China US cold war at some point of time ? In 5 - 10 years China may become
powerful enough to be able to bully all nations bar US to pursue its
interests. Economic colonisation of weaker states in Africa and elsewhere
(e.g. Pakistan) by China will lead to interesting geopolitical scenarios.

~~~
jjakque
My forecast for near future geopolitics is grim as collateral damages will
happen in most countries, first world or not, west or not.

I am also pessimistic about open initiatives (open source, open data, open
standards etc) as benefiters will exponentially overweight contributors, to a
point contributors will sick of people eating free lunches. It may also become
more and more illegal to disclose security risks and software vulnerabilities.

------
fergie
The coming population decline crisis

[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/27/what-goes-
up-p...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/27/what-goes-up-
population-crisis-wrong-fertility-rates-decline)

------
Felz
Be careful trying to forecast that far into the future. Historically, most
people have ended up very wrong.

------
olalonde
I predict human level AI will come about. What comes after I'm not sure but I
tend to be optimistic.

~~~
davidmichael4u
I feel the "I, Robot" film became a true

------
_nalply
There's a joke about weather forecast: "Kräht der Hahn auf dem Mist wird es
morgen schön oder nicht" (If the cock is crowing on the midden weather will be
either fine tomorrow or not). In this vein, my prediction:

Humans are mostly extinct or they are on their way to paradise.

------
jakeogh
Traditional society management via myth will fail (the 3 NYC CD's will be
common knowledge).

The 1st and 2nd Amendments will be further adopted outside the United States.

Open, non-DRM 3D printers will be as common as a 2D printer is today in the
US.

Personal wayback machines will be standard computing kit.

Cash will still exist.

------
neverminder
* SpaceX will land people on Mars and establish a base.

* VR will take off and evolve into some Matrix-like form.

* Electric energy will push out oil from most sectors.

* Gene manipulation will take off big time.

* None of the above will happen because accelerating global warming will cause the 3rd world war.

------
Animats
\- The Great Dieoff near the equator. Large parts of India and the Middle East
become uninhabitable. Hundreds of millions die. The countries further from the
equator do not let them in. World population will be lower than it is now.
Most of the dieoff will be older people.

\- US loses Miami and New Orleans to sea level rise, but otherwise does OK.

\- "Machines should think, people should work" \- computers will be doing many
management jobs, including direct supervision. Physical robots will still be
niche.

\- More strongmen. Types like Putin, Netanyahu, Li Keqiang, and Trump will be
the new normal.

\- Intense surveillance, with behavioral tracking and evaluation, is the new
normal. Government and business will cooperate in this.

\- Energy will not be a problem. Some materials will be more expensive, but no
mined material exhaustion in the next 50 years. Except for water.

\- Food will only be a problem where water is a problem.

\- Many antibiotics will stop working. There will be alternatives in the
developed world, but they will cost more and be more complicated and custom.

~~~
methusala8
-Large parts of India and the Middle East become uninhabitable

Any particular data/research to support this particular assertion?

~~~
KnightOfWords
Certainly not within 50 years, but this is based on projected wet-bulb
temperatures around the equator. The limit for human survivability is the
equivalent of 35C at 100% humidity.

"A sustained wet-bulb temperature exceeding 35 °C (95 °F) is likely to be
fatal even to fit and healthy people, unclothed in the shade next to a fan; at
this temperature our bodies switch from shedding heat to the environment, to
gaining heat from it. Thus 35 °C (95 °F) is the threshold beyond which the
body is no longer able to adequately cool itself. A study by NOAA from 2013
concluded that heat stress will reduce labor capacity considerably under
current emissions scenarios.

A 2010 study concluded that under a worst-case scenario for global warming
with temperatures 12 °C (22 °F) higher than 2007, the wet-bulb temperature
limit for humans could be exceeded around much of the world in future
centuries. A 2015 study concluded that parts of the globe could become
uninhabitable. An example of the threshold at which the human body is no
longer able to cool itself and begins to overheat is a humidity level of 50%
and a high heat of 46 °C (115 °F), as this would indicate a wet-bulb
temperature of 35 °C (95 °F)."

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature#Wet-
bulb_...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature#Wet-
bulb_temperature_and_health)

------
Gerthak
You'll have a guaranteed next World War considering the current decouplings
and many countries exiting from international treaties that provide
stabilisation.

I have no idea what will be the the post-war order so impossible to predict.

------
sethammons
My Grandma went from riding a horse to town to space travel, the internet, and
smart TVs.

I'd love to see that kind of expansion, but I mostly expect to see the end of
Trick or Treating.

------
Abishek_Muthian
Many genetic mutations for new born could be predicted even before conceiving
and plausible remedial measures could be taken during early development of the
fetus.

------
KozmoNau7
Massive unrest due to climate change, leading to waves of mass immigration,
humanitarian disasters, atrocities, genocide and a rise in authoritarianism.

All because of our greed.

~~~
yamrzou
Sadly, I agree.

Let me quote
[https://collapseos.org/why.html](https://collapseos.org/why.html) here :

“I expect our global supply chain to collapse before we reach 2030. With this
collapse, we won't be able to produce most of our electronics because it
depends on a very complex supply chain that we won't be able to achieve again
for decades (ever?).”

And a related discussion :
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21183805](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21183805)

I might disagree with the given date, but I think some sort of industrial
collapse will probably happen in the next century, basically because the earth
has finite resources, and we have been consuming them at an unprecedented rate
in the human history. Added to the climate change, it will lead to a massive
unrest that we are not ready to deal with.

~~~
usrusr
Rebuilding computing could really turn out surprisingly difficult: the first
time "we" did it, hardware manufacturing was bootstrapped by the type of
customer epitomized by "world market for about five computers" and then gently
followed the price/demand curve until we reached cheap smartphones. If it had
to be repeated, all the potential customers on the beginner-friendly end of
said curve will have access to vastly superior legacy hardware. The kind of
customer that was amongst the first who could afford computers in the original
ramp-up would be the last who could afford increasingly rare remnant hardware
after a supply chain collapse (the same problem that makes it impossible to
bootstrap a domestic _anything_ industry when you don't already have one, all
the deep-pocketed buyers can afford superior imports). Basically "Saddam's
PlayStation 2 supercomputer" turned reality.

------
daman
Euthanasia will become legal worldwide, and legally supported suicide for non-
medical reasons will increase suicide rates by a 10x or higher factor.

------
notelonmusk
Self-driving cats

------
Jaruzel
Nothing will change significantly over the next 50 years, despite people
constantly predicting otherwise.

My personal take is that we've reached peak humanity. Without some large shock
to the global eco-system there will be no significant progress in anything
meaningful. The 20th century only resulted in major advances in many fields of
research due to two world wars. War is the driver for change.

If you want a better human race, have another war.

------
komoreba
We will talk a lot about the weather.

------
RickJWagner
Programming will still exist.

And people will be forecasting the demise of programming, coming soon.

------
davidmichael4u
AI, bot or robots these 3 can rule every human.

------
sys_64738
The Soviets will walk on Mars within 20 years.

------
dvh
No permanent human base beyond leo.

------
architect
My predictions have a tendency to come true. Consider yourselves privileged to
have received this information years in advance

Things that won't happen:

\- There will NEVER be a 3rd "World War" with major countries rolling tanks
across each others borders and millions dead. There will be lots of conflict
though, but never a direct confrontation between major nations like u.s.
china, Russia, etc

\- There will also never be a nuclear attack on a live target. The worst that
could ever happen would be a "test" deterrent on uninhabited land and even
that is highly doubtful

\- Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will not be adopted by the mainstream on a
large scale such that you could use it to buy groceries, pay rent, pay for
everyday expenses, etc

\- But they will also not disappear. Cryptocurrencies are here to stay

\- There won't be any major youth cultural movement such as punks in the 70s,
skinheads, hippies, ravers, etc. Big concerts and events will slowly become
smaller/fizzle out. These movements of the past were driven by the children of
factory workers and working classes. Deindustrialization is causing the
decline of youth culture

\- Cold fusion

\- "Room temperature" superconductors

\- Manned Moon landing. Not in 2024, 34, or in our lifetime (sorry)

\- Manned Mars landing. This one will ESPECIALLY not happen! And even if it
did, nobody is going to believe it

\- "Storm Area 51" or any similar such event. Wont happen

\- "Aliens" won't come

\- Massive decline in national sports. People will not associate themselves
with any particular sports team. For similar reasons which made youth music
movements disappear, people will also lose interest in soccer, basketball,
etc. FIFA, NBA, UEFA and others will be riddled with scandal after scandal

\- +11bn. We have only so much planet to go around. Something will give...

Things that will happen:

\- Costs of living will continue to rise, driven primarily by housing costs.
Both, buying and renting, will continue to go up indefinitely making not just
owning a home, but even sleeping inside a building with 4 solid walls
increasingly unaffordable for a large majority of the population. First in
western countries such as the u.s. and Europe, but also increasingly in places
such as Asia and South America and many other places in the world

\- As a consequence, cities will become thinly populated by a minority who can
still afford to live in them and their servants, while large number of
buildings, well maintained on the outside, will deteriorate on the inside.

\- Empty luxury towers will be dotting cities all over the world with
automatic light switches to make them appear occupied at night

\- Van living will become BIG BUSINESS!!

\- Major car manufacturers will be too stupid/bureaucratic to pick up (heh) on
the opportunity

\- People will adopt. Having a nicely fitted van/rv will be the new "middle
class"

\- If you hope that there will be another "burst" of the housing bubble, good
luck. Things in history never happen twice. Maybe its time to get comfortable
in your tent!

\- Gym memberships will continue to go up

\- The US dollar/Euro will continue to rise against most other currencies for
quite some time. No hyperinflation any time soon

\- Continued decline in fossil fuel production

\- "Digital Nomad" places such as Bali, Chiang Mai, etc will become VERY
popular. Even more so than they are today

\- Many new places like that will arise all around the world. The famous
Nomadlist is just an indication of what's to come

\- Nation states will disappear. People will be divided into two major groups:
Those who can adjust to a world in with the geography of your birth will no
longer carry relevance to how you conduct your life. And those who will fail
to adjust to a new narrative in which nationality no longer plays a role. This
second group will be the Left Behinds. Many of them will become violent
against the first and amongst each other. You can already see this happening
with the (futile) rise of nationalism around the world. These people can't
adopt, and will be wiped out

\- Record cold winters

\- Extreme heat wave summers

\- Collapse of food production in many parts of the world at least during some
periods with all the nasty consequences

\- Continued decline in birth rates. World wide

\- Splintering of the "United" States of America. Numerous groups fighting to
claim the title, with others fighting to reject it

\- Transition of the U.S and Europe from 1st world to 3rd world

\- Save havens will emerge around the world who will accept refugees from the
Declining West who were smart enough to foresee these developments in advance.
The future won't be bad for those who can see what's coming

I also have some more predictions about the decline of the nations state.
These are rather dark and involve things such as alliances between the deep
state and street gangs. "Law enforcement" becoming criminals and turning
against their own population etc. But that's enough for now, you get the
picture...

------
hntddt1
Detroit:Become Human

------
sneak
Sadly, war.

