
Something’s Odd About the Political Betting Markets - terryauerbach
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/moneybox/2016/07/why_political_betting_markets_are_failing.html
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PhantomGremlin
The article discusses the interplay between polling and betting. But there's
something that has changed recently, and that is polling. It's becoming very
difficult to do polling. The response rate is under 1%, which IMO completely
undermines the results.

Check out this article in Wired: [http://www.wired.com/2016/06/civis-election-
polling-clinton-...](http://www.wired.com/2016/06/civis-election-polling-
clinton-sanders-trump/)

Response rates to phone polls:

    
    
       1980 72%
       2000 61%
       2012  5.5%
       2016  0.9%
    

Good luck obtaining accurate data if fewer than 1 in 100 people answer the
phone when you call them.

