
What the Bagel Man Saw - An Accidental Glimpse at Human Nature - adam
http://www.stephenjdubner.com/journalism/bagelman.html
======
ajays
"Paul F. has noted a strong correlation between high payment rates and an
office where people seem to like their boss and their work."

I wonder if this could be a way for companies to figure out (surreptitiously)
how managers are doing: provide such a bagel service to each department, and
see where the theft rate is the highest. Of course, it has to be done
completely incognito, otherwise the managers would make sure that the cash box
is stuff full of cash....

~~~
Tyrannosaurs
Given that he also noticed a correlation with weather, overall economic
conditions, global events and myriad other factors, you'd need to work very
very hard to isolate only what was down to the manager.

Plus most people respond primarily to their direct manager and most direct
managers have relatively few reports (typically less than 20). Statistically
that's going to make it hard to find significant findings given the variation
that is normally seen.

Or think of a team which, for no reason of the manager's making had one
inherently dishonest employee who steals all the time. That manager is on -5%
before he does a thing - a big disadvantage given the variations being
discussed.

EDIT: Not to mention the fact that this is one of his "intuitive conclusions"
- which I'm reading as he has no solid data to support the level of liking /
not liking their boss, or possibly whether it was even true.

~~~
gcb
If you provide the service to a few teams/companies, you can rule out.the
noise

~~~
Tyrannosaurs
Given that he found a correlation between company size and industry you'd need
to find a few companies that matched in those regards too as well as geography
(weather) and other things.

Oh, and this wasn't something he had any data to support, it was just
something he felt was probably true.

Speaking as a manager, I'd like not to be fired on the hunch of a bagel
salesman / economist if that's OK.

~~~
gcb
He could use a dozen managers from the same company.

Also managers who doesn't get lame math jokes makes people steal more bagels.
Beware.

------
kghose
This was a very interesting article. I always find experiments involving honor
systems very fascinating. The bus system in Germany and some parts of the
Boston T (the trolleys when they are overground) are basically honor systems.
In Bonn, Germany people are very particular about paying the fare. In Boston,
not so much.

~~~
willyt
Rome has(had?) an honour system for public transport too. We didn't realise
that no one ever pays unless they see inspectors getting on the bus. Lots of
people would leap up and punch their biglietti when we punched ours because
they assumed we had seen some inspectors. I couldn't work out what was going
on until I read about it in the Time Out guide which explained that almost no
one pays :-)

London had exactly the same system and the same fare evasion problem on the
high traffic bendy bus routes. These routes were always overcrowded probably
because of the number of unrecorded passengers using them. They withdrew these
buses and replaced them with ones which take longer to board partly because of
the fare evasion and partly because a sort of bizarre bus xenophobia (hatred
of a foreign european style of bus) inspired by the Evening Standard which
resulted in an election promise by mayor Boris to get rid of them.

~~~
akadruid1
I can't speak for their motivation, but the what the Evening Standard (and
Metro et al) printed was not related to the origins of the bus. They claimed
they were dangerous to other road users. TfL disputes this.

Solving the overcrowding issue is more complicated than building higher
capacity buses - you have to think about the speed of boarding, route layout,
speed of navigating London's congested streets, fare evasion and more. In some
places, the bus stops allow for two bendy buses or 3-4 regular buses to board
at once, which means faster boarding on regular buses during peak times.

The new Routemasters, with 3 doors and 2 staircases, might prove to reduce
overcrowding despite their lower capacity.

~~~
willyt
There was plenty of research behind introducing bendy buses. The main argument
being that they transit the route faster overall because they have a much
shorter dwell time at stops. The introduction of bendy buses was a rational
evidence based decision, the campaign against them was mostly emotional
hubris, which resulted in them being replaced early at vast expense to the
taxpayer. The main reasonable complaint against them was that you were more
likely to have to stand up, but you often couldn't even get on the bus (e.g's
routes 73,38) before they were introduced so I don't know what's worse.

------
jackfoxy
> could any man resist the temptation of evil if he knew his acts could not be
> witnessed? ... Paul F. ... knows that the answer, at least 89 percent of the
> time, is yes.

Coincides remarkably with what a former fraud investigator once told me, that
11% of the population is sociopaths.

------
r00fus
I wonder how the payment rates would change if he simply mounted a non-
functional wireless camera plugged into a socket pointing at the bagel
location?

(ie, hinting to people that they are _not_ invisible as in the story of the
Ring of Gyges)

~~~
CWuestefeld
_I wonder how the payment rates would change if he simply mounted a ...
camera_

An interesting question. I wouldn't be surprised if the camera made it worse.
My guess is that people, when trusted, hold themselves to a higher standard.
But with a camera present, they're allowed to turn off their own consciences.
So people would be ingenious about palming a bagel so the camera wouldn't see,
and think that if the camera's not seeing it, they're home free.

~~~
JimDabell
This has actually been studied:

[http://www.staff.ncl.ac.uk/melissa.bateson/Bateson_etal_2006...](http://www.staff.ncl.ac.uk/melissa.bateson/Bateson_etal_2006.pdf)

> We examined the effect of an image of a pair of eyes on contributions to an
> honesty box used to collect money for drinks in a university coffee room.
> People paid nearly three times as much for their drinks when eyes were
> displayed rather than a control image. This finding provides the first
> evidence from a naturalistic setting of the importance of cues of being
> watched, and hence reputational concerns, on human cooperative behaviour.

~~~
matthavener
This is even more amazing, because the people _know_ they're not being
watched. I wonder how ingrained the image of eyes is? Could you achieve the
same effect with a picture of a CCTV camera?

~~~
cannuk
that is a really interesting idea. With a fake camera people can see what they
are supposed to avoid. With a picture of a camera, where they are unclear
exactly where the camera is, I wonder how that changes things.

------
jeff_5nines
Execs and higher paid people are less likely to carry cash on them as lower
paid people. I wonder if this make theft, not making it any more ethical, but
more likely to occur in moments of weakness. And what about the Whimpy effect
of 'gladly pay you Tuesday' for bagel today. Are there make up payments being
made?

------
dugmartin
I've read this story before and wondered then if he would have made a
cardboard cutout of himself smiling with outstretched hands and put it behind
the bagels (so it looked like he was offering them) if his payment rate would
have gone up.

------
chaostheory
Nice story, but how do we know it's real? There's no data and all the names
have been changed.

------
aaronharnly
What makes me sad in reading this article is that the man set out to respect
people's good nature with his honor system, but (at least in the telling)
became a bit of a nag, obsessed with measuring and haranguing cheats.

------
dpatru
I wonder if the theft rate is differs between donuts and bagels. Are people
who choose healthier food more honest?

~~~
SeanLuke
I think it would surprise you which has more calories, a plain bagel or a
glazed yeast donut.

~~~
robobenjie
about the same number of calories, (224 calories in a donut, 207 in a bagel)
but those calories come from sugar and fat in the donut (4 times the sugar and
12 times the amount of fat).

Sources:

<http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=calories+in+a+donut>
<http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=calories+in+a+bagel>

~~~
SeanLuke
That's a rather small bagel (75g). The issue here is mass. Bagels are _much_
denser than donuts. Calorie Count has 285 calories in a medium, plain toasted
bagel (100g) and 239 calories in a 60g medium glaze yeast donut.

[http://caloriecount.about.com/calories-bagels-
toasted-i18002...](http://caloriecount.about.com/calories-bagels-
toasted-i18002?size_grams=99.0)

------
corporalagumbo
Wow, I read this article and immediately thought: this is the future of
digital media economies.

It's obvious that in the long run, it will be impossible to force people to
pay for digital media. The only alternative is coercive, expensive, leak-prone
control of the internet by governments, and I just don't see that as feasible
in the long-term.

So, asking people to please be honest is basically the only alternative.

Look at Louis CK's experiment, or the Humble Indie Bundle, or Radiohead's In
Rainbows, all those years ago. What were they doing? They were leaving out a
bunch of bagels, and a box with a slot in it, and saying "Hey, we're not going
to watch you, but we'd really appreciate it if you paid for your bagel."

Some further thoughts:

1) With digital bagel selling, the bagels are infinite, and the potential
office size is the entire world.

2) With digital bagel selling, a recommended price can be asked for the bagel,
but customers are encouraged to pay as much as they feel willing to give.

3) Similarly, digital bagel sellers such as Louis CK have used guilt-tripping
to attempt to raise payment rates. Saying "I worked hard on this, I'm not
asking for that much, I would really appreciate it if you supported me" -
making an appeal to people's sense of fairness and generosity - must increase
payment rates (/decrease theft)

4) What other factors might influence payment rates in digital selling, and
might it be possible to account for these factors - to adjust selling
techniques depending on the "digital weather"? For instance, given enough
data, could you correlate payment rates to internet activity - maybe someone
who looks at lots of pictures of Lolcats is more likely to pay - or someone
who has read lots of depressing news articles is less likely to pay - or maybe
someone literally browsing in a place where the weather is shit is less likely
to pay? Could you tweak it so that someone is most likely to see an ad/link
for your digital bagels when the digital weather is optimal?

5) By always starting selling as digital bagels, sellers can prevent the worst
excesses of the torrent cycle. If you try and lock digital bagels into the
traditional payment model, they will almost certainly instantly appear in
torrents, at which point, all potential buyers will be faced with a choice -
buy at the set price from the standard outlet or sneak around to the backdoor
torrent outlet. By setting up a digital bagel shop, you can let those who
would not pay anyway do so, immediately, making it less likely for anyone to
set up a backdoor torrent. Why torrent a digital bagel when it can be
downloaded for free, in a pristine copy, from the official outlet? Preventing
the runaway torrent cycle means that all customers, payers and non-payers,
will be exposed to the optimum conditions for inducing payment - resulting in
the highest potential returns.

6) How do we calculate a reasonable return for digital bagel selling? Beyond
paying for hosting and bandwidth, there is no cost for selling/giving away
10,000 digital bagels vs 100,000 digital bagels. How much should creators of
media be paid - how do we calculate how much they deserve to be paid?

Much of this I am sure is what the people at Humble Indie Bundle spend a lot
of time thinking about. But it is clear to me that the SOPA-path is not a
tenable future for the internet (my native New Zealand has unfortunately
already gone down this path). Worldwide free or next-to-free circulation of
cultural goods is a net good for society. More people reading more, watching
more, thinking more, means potentially more people more educated and aware
than ever before - and people creating more fantastic things than ever before.

But we are being dragged away from this path by those who reaped fat rewards
from the old system, when commodity sold was linked to cost of production, and
physical formats meant IP enforcement was still feasible. The stalwarts of the
old system are not willing to consider the reformulations of basic economic
strategy necessary to take advantage of the new situation.

Hopefully we end up with a free internet, where everyone sells their own
digital bagels, and people are on the whole honest and generous! Fingers
crossed.

------
funkah
I remember reading this in Freakonomics but with a bit more embellishment. I
remember that when the payment rates started to sag, he would put a picture of
eyes by the money box, and that often helped the rate rise again.

A bored office worker could do a bit of his own experimentation in this vein
-- how many donuts do people buy when there's a fake rubber cockroach near the
box? A picture of a severely obese person, or a very fit person, or a salad?

------
funkah
I noticed there is quite a bit of speeding in this article which is concerned
with small crimes. Presumably that's OK because there isn't victim involved.

~~~
mc32
Speeding isn't a criminal offense. It's an infraction of the vehicle code.

~~~
nkurz
Whether speeding is criminal depends on where you are, and the speed you are
travelling. One might make a similar argument that an 'honor box' is a
'suggested donation', and that one is simply choosing not to donate. You could
probably even argue that it _must_ be considered a voluntary donation as
evidenced by the failure to collect the required sales tax.

I think 'funkah' has a point. There are lots of things happening in this
article, and it's fair to look at the situation from a different perspective
than the primary. As a California business owner, I didn't notice the
speeding, but did wonder about whether or not DC required him to have health
and vending permits for each of his locations, and whether the legality of his
business should affect our conclusions: is it more or less ethically
acceptable to 'steal' a donut from an 'illegal' business?

~~~
mc32
But if you consider the honor box a suggested donation box, is that a
business, still?

The sales tax is likely included in the dollar amount. Like when you are
quoted 3.99/gallon of fuel. That price includes a number of taxes built in.

We (well, specifically, I) don't know if DC requires permits for re-selling
food-stuff. We do not know if he is on the level, were they to require such.
It probably depends on how much revenue is produced by each location. Just as
sidewalk Lemonade stands don't require permits, in most locales. Anyhow, all
that is speculative, unless you have facts.

Ethics. I think you are getting into relative ethics. If someone else goes
against ethics, does it grant me a waiver to act unethically?

~~~
nkurz
_if you consider the honor box a suggested donation box, is that a business_

A fine question, and an ongoing local issue near me:
<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123422026431565295.html> A local Thai temple
has a mandatory voluntary donation scheme that they use to skirt a lot of
laws. I love their food, but am against their sham.

 _The sales tax is likely included in the dollar amount._

Could be, but I'd bet that he's technically non-compliant. The rules are
mighty complex. Our next-door neighbor restaurant was recently fined heavily
for considering their sandwich purchases "take out" while providing unofficial
side-walk seating.

 _We (well, specifically, I) don't know if DC requires permits for re-selling
food-stuff._

If we are to consider it a "sale", then I think he would require a Vending
Machine License:
[http://dc.gov/DC/DCRA/For+Business/Apply+for+a+Business+Lice...](http://dc.gov/DC/DCRA/For+Business/Apply+for+a+Business+License/Retail+Food+License+Information/Get+a+Food+Vending+Machine+License)

 _It probably depends on how much revenue is produced by each location._

I deal with many such laws in California, and have not found many such
exclusions. Rather, like speeding, the behaviour is technically illegal but
regulated with only selective enforcement. I don't like selective enforcement.

 _Just as sidewalk Lemonade stands don't require permits, in most locales._

I think this is again mostly selective enforcement. It's been a big issue
lately: [http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2011/08/03/the-
inexplic...](http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2011/08/03/the-inexplicable-
war-on-lemonade-stands/)

 _Anyhow, all that is speculative, unless you have facts._

True. I can really only speak only to my experience running a food business in
California, where my opinion is that it is impossible to run a business
without breaking numerous laws. Heck, I just learned last month that all of my
employees are working illegally:
[http://sanfrancisco.grubstreet.com/2011/06/so_has_anyone_in_...](http://sanfrancisco.grubstreet.com/2011/06/so_has_anyone_in_california_he.html)

 _If someone else goes against ethics, does it grant me a waiver to act
unethically?_

This is indeed the real question. It certainly doesn't grant an unconditional
waiver, but I think there can be mitigating factors. Would it matter that the
Bagel Guy has the permission of the business (he does)? What if he was
representing it as a charity: [http://bulkvending.blogspot.com/2008/04/making-
money-from-ch...](http://bulkvending.blogspot.com/2008/04/making-money-from-
charity-boxes.html)

I think the question is ethics. While the article was entertaining, it didn't
delve deeply enough into the situation to be informative on ethics. I post to
HN hoping that discussion might be able to happen here...

