
Total Covid-19 Mortality in Italy: Excess Mortality and Age Dependence - gpderetta
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074v2
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gpderetta
Full title: Total COVID-19 Mortality in Italy: Excess Mortality and Age
Dependence through Time-Series Analysis.

tl;dr

estimated fatalities from excess mortality in Italy: 52,000 ± 2000. Population
fatality Rate: 0.22% in Lombardia (0.57% in the most affected towns) which put
a lower bound on the IFR. Infection rate probably 60-70% in the most affected
towns and herd immunity should now be present.

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gpderetta
I think they might be overestimating the infection rate though (but then
again, they have huge error bars).

They use the PFR computed from the excess mortality (which is fine), but that
includes a lot of people that have died on their home, which were more
probably more likely to die (but with an unknown factor) that those that died
in an hospital (whose CFR can be estimated). But they use the CFR from
Princess Diamond, correcting for the age group but not for the fact that all
the cases form Princess Diamond were treated in an hospital.

It is probably not a big deal as the major result of the paper is an
estimation of the PFR.

