
TED 2004, Kunstler Dissects Suburbia - nir
http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/james_howard_kunstler_dissects_suburbia.html
======
anamax
Yawn.

Yet another "I don't like suburbs and/or people who do like them therefore
suburbs are evil and/or said people are cretins." screed.

If a puritan is someone who is mad because someone, somewhere is having fun,
what is the word for such people?

Note that he's pining for a past that (1) didn't really exist and (2) to the
extent that it existed, people (mostly) abandoned it for suburbia.

There are still some instances and he's welcome to live in one. He's even
welcome to build more, with his money. (If he's right, folks will flock to
them. If he's wrong, well, shouldn't he take the hit?) The folks in suburbia
won't mind.

And that's what makes them better than he is. They don't get pushed out of
shape when someone has different preferences.

~~~
ardit33
1) That past did really exist.

There was towns/cities, and rural land (with houses miles apart). Suburbia
tried to be a hybrid, something between country living and city living, but
failed at doing both miserably.

There are other social factors. At least, here in CA, there is a huge
adversity against building more density, (the NIMBY effect). A vocal group of
people are opposed to tall building/building anything close to their backyard,
creating a lack of density, and artificially limiting the free market and real
town-higher-density formation, at a reasonable price.

~~~
anamax
> 1) That past did really exist.

I'm referring to the delusions that he has about the "grand doings" of folks
in town squares. (I do like the town squares that have an artillery piece set
up by the local VFW chapter but I don't think that that's what he has in
mind.)

> Suburbia tried to be a hybrid, something between country living and city
> living, but failed at doing both miserably.

Failed according to whom? Not the folks who pick suburbia over towns/cities
and rural, which are still available for those who want to live in them.

> At least, here in CA, there is a huge adversity against building more
> density, (the NIMBY effect).

It's not NIMBY to point out that high density is often a disaster.

Besides - CA is a big and mostly empty state. There are plenty of places where
you can build high density that is no where near someone's back yard.

And, it's fair to point out that CA also has govt restrictions that
significantly reduce rural living.

~~~
bokonist
Many people did not choose the suburbs freely. They were driven out of the
cities by incredibly high levels of violence. The typical American city now
has a homicide rate 10X to 100X that of a Victorian era European city. That's
not a typo, 1990's DC had a homicide rate _100X_ that of London in 1900.

~~~
anamax
> The typical American city now has a homicide rate 10X to 100X that of a
> Victorian era European city. That's not a typo, 1990's DC had a homicide
> rate 100X that of London in 1900.

No, it's not a typo, it's an error. DC is not a typical American city and it
takes a considerable amount of ignorance (or ?) to claim that it is.

The comparison with the Victorian era is somewhat odd. DC's crime rate in the
90s was considerably higher than it is now or than it was in the Victorian
era. DC was proportionally less populated during the Victorian era than it was
in the 90s. (It may have become somewhat smaller since the 90s.)

Yes, US cities became more violent as they grew relative to suburbs and small
towns. The big increases in violence happened in the 60s, when the cities were
still growing. The shrinkage, where it has occurred, is very recent, since the
mid 90s (and violence started dropping soon after).

That said, violence in American cities that have significant violence is
highly localized in areas populated by people who, for the most part, can't
afford to move out. (That's not to say that folks don't move because of a fear
of violence.)

Note that folks who leave cities don't have to move to suburbs. They can move
to small towns. They don't. (Suburb isn't a "size", it's a kind of community
design. Big cities used to be surrounded by little cities. Those cities were
turned into suburbs by folks who prefered that.)

In fact, small towns lost population to suburbs and cities.

FWIW, DC's peak murder rate was less than 1/4th of the murder rate of East
Palo Alto during the same time. EPA is a suburb which borders Palo Alto (CA)
and Menlo Park. Those two suburbs have a murder between them every 5-7 years.
(EPA's murder rate has dropped a lot since its peak and may be under DC's
now.)

~~~
jacoblyles
A trick I picked up from Moldbug is to try to look at our times through the
eyes of someone living 100 years ago or 100 years in the future. It gives you
perspective and helps you escape the narrow view of people immersed in our
present squabbles and concerns.

I think the fact that someone living 100 years ago would view our times as
unspeakably violent is an interesting fact (and that is even including a drop
in crime in most places since the 70s).

~~~
anamax
While it's an interesting idea, in this case it isn't clear what the value is
as the typical risk of violence hasn't changed significantly.

The numbers are such that changes in tiny subpopulations have a big effect on
the averages. US cities are not "unspeakably violent" - certain blocks or
buildings are.

FWIW, the murder drop didn't start until the mid 90s.

------
martythemaniak
Suburbs are a bad design compromise, like an weird all-in-one tool that tries
to do 10 things and ends up doing nothing well. The dream was to combine the
convenience, excitement and diversity of cities with a relaxed, nature-centric
country living. The result unfortunately combined the worst of both - mind-
numbing conformity and boredom, isolated unwalkable neighbourhoods and hardly
a drop of much nature anywhere.

I present Markham, a very typical suburb (exurbs are even worse) of Toronto:
[http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/14/Mar...](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/14/Markham-
suburbs.id.jpg.jpg/400px-Markham-suburbs.id.jpg.jpg)

As with other things, I'd take the UNIX philosophy here - small, powerful,
well-designed tools that can be combined. I'd take a small apartment in the
downtown and a small cottage in the middle of nowhere rather than one of the
houses above.

~~~
anamax
> As with other things, I'd take the UNIX philosophy here - small, powerful,
> well-designed tools that can be combined. I'd take a small apartment in the
> downtown and a small cottage in the middle of nowhere rather than one of the
> houses above.

Feel free - suburb folks aren't going to criticise your preferences.

However, many folks can't afford both of those things.

~~~
martythemaniak
A friend of mine's parents lived in the neighbourhood in that picture and they
recently sold their house for close to $400000, which can certainly afford you
both a decent apartment and a small place in the woods.

~~~
gravitycop
_$400000 [...] can [...] afford you both a decent apartment and a small place
in the woods._

$400,000 for an apartment alone would be pretty cheap in New York City.
[http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2009/01/30/new-york-
city-r...](http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2009/01/30/new-york-city-real-
estate-in-dramatic-slowdown-new-report-says)

 _From the first quarter, the average price of condos and co-ops fell 11.5%,
hitting $1.37 million in the fourth quarter. The median price for condos and
co-ops meanwhile, peaked in the second quarter at $920,000 before plunging
17.8% to $757,000 in the fourth quarter._

------
mhartl
His talk certainly is passionate, but there's not much evidence here. In
particular, I see no attempt to grapple with how unnatural cities are. Humans
evolved in small hunter-gatherer bands on the African savannah. Therefore
dense urban cores are needed to create a sense of place? _Non sequitur._

~~~
ardit33
I guess you ignore the last 20,000 years of humanity. Yes, maybe it wasn't
cities where people lived; but it was small towns, villages, or caves. Humans
have lived bunched up close together in groups for millenia. This isolation
that the suburbs inflicts on us is just un-natural.

There was a great story in Discovery channel, on how immigrants from Germany,
that moved in the USA mid-west, suffered heavily from depression. People were
used living in towns and villages, close to family, friends, and support. Now,
a lot of these german families, bought a lot of land in the middle of rural
midwest, where everything was miles (and hours) of walk to the next house or
town. People felt isolated, and women suffered the most.

In europe, houses are usually in hills, grouped together, with a town/village
center, and the farmed land is outside the town.

~~~
gravitycop
_In europe, houses are usually in hills, grouped together, with a town/village
center, and the farmed land is outside the town._

And there are/were no farmers? U.S. urban population share, 1800-2000:
<http://www.demographia.com/db-usrur1800.htm>

    
    
      1800   6.1%
      1850  15.3%
      1900  39.7%
      1950  59.0%
      2000  79.0%
    

<http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/eib3/eib3.htm>

_Early 20th century agriculture was labor intensive, and it took place on a
large number of small, diversified farms in rural areas where more than half
of the U.S. population lived. These farms employed close to half of the U.S.
workforce_

------
nir
Architecture and urban planning are very close to software IMHO, being about
form and function and complex systems. This one is a brilliant talk on that
subject.

~~~
nir
BTW no one gets spat on and he doesn't say how Twitter will make loads of cash
or why <some big company> will die, but it's really really a great talk.
Really. Please watch it. I promise it's a good use of your next 20 minutes.
You don't even have to upmod it. I will donate any karma points to charity.

~~~
gravitycop
_it's really really a great talk. Really._

He implies that Main Street shops are important, and states that the world is
running out of cheap oil. Do you believe these things?

~~~
nir
Yeah, I might have been a little excited when posting this, and a bit
frustrated at the type of material we've been seeing here recently.

To your question, 3 things:

1\. Even if you completely disagree with the message, Kunstler's delivery
alone is worth the 20 minutes.

2\. His urban planning arguments go a bit further than "Main Street shops are
important". In my view the suburbs are simply a bad design choice - he
explains how they came to be, what are their inherent problems, and why this
touches many issues of our society & life quality, well beyond energy
consumption.

3\. As for the world running out of cheap oil - I'm no expert, but as I
understand oil is found in nature rather than produced, so by definition its
total amount decreases when use it. Even if we have enough oil to last
thousands of years at affordable prices, the political and environmental
implications of using it still stand.

~~~
anamax
> 1\. Even if you completely disagree with the message, Kunstler's delivery
> alone is worth the 20 minutes.

If that's the standard, let's get Robin Williams, or Brando, reading the phone
book, the Boston phone book if class is relevant.

> In my view the suburbs are simply a bad design choice - he explains how they
> came to be, what are their inherent problems, and why this touches many
> issues of our society & life quality, well beyond energy consumption.

He doesn't actually explain so much as try to justify his combination of
disdain, digust, and pity for folks who live in them, folks who don't have the
good sense to flee in horror.

~~~
nir
>If that's the standard, let's get Robin Williams, or Brando, reading the
phone book

Ultimately it's vote-based site, so it has as much chance as anything.
Standard-wise, in a week where the top stories were about Arrington getting
spat in the face, I honestly don't think this submission is lowering the
average. But, again, it's a matter of taste.

~~~
anamax
I didn't say that it lowered the standard. I suggested that "great delivery"
is something of a cop-out.

I doubt that you posted thinking thinking "great delivery". I suspect that you
posted thinking "great message".

------
revorad
One of my all time TED favourites.

~~~
gravitycop
Transcript here: <http://blog.ted.com/2007/04/james_howard_ku_1.php#more>

