

Was Moore's Law Inevitable? - cwan
http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2009/07/was_moores_law.php

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eyecon
kk site hacked! Too bad, because it's a good question that deserves thought.
Assuming KK considers both critical dimensions of this phenomenon -- capacity
and cost -- then the argument for inevitability actually hinges on the much
broader and more controversial question of whether markets always work, i.e.,
whether (1) the emergence of competition and related market dynamics is
inevitable in all digital technology product markets, and whether (2) those
dynamics are certain to assure that such products will continue to be
available to the rest of the market at prices that consistently track their
ever-diminishing production costs.

Given the fact that pricing for many products and services that are subject to
Moore's Law effects varies hugely by geography -- and the fact that many such
variations cannot be explained away based on other factors (e.g., availability
of other inputs, transportation costs, national regulations, etc.), it seems
to me that the argument for inevitability (esp. continued inevitability)
requires a level of optimism that borders on the irrational, a.k.a. "wishful
thinking."

