
“I Don’t Think the Virus Can Be Stopped Anymore”, Says Harvard Epidemiologist - elorant
https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/i-don-t-think-the-virus-can-be-stopped-anymore-a-03d404e6-762b-42fb-ac48-e4a8f03a2f2b
======
HocusLocus
An article closer to home with no Spiegel-Spritzen. I think the “I Don't Think
the Virus Can Be Stopped Anymore” is clickbait out of context to sell more Der
Spiegels, marketed to people who are waiting for some final pronouncement of
doom.

[https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/03/officials-
det...](https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/03/officials-detail-
universitys-move-to-online-learning-to-combat-coronavirus/)

Here is Marc Lipsitch quoted properly with a definition of "flattening the
curve" which is the rational way to present the idea that containment is no
longer possible.

[https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-
cases-...](https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-
quarantine-cancellation)

Containment is no longer possible because the disease is becoming globally
endemic and will probably survive in successive waves over several years and
the only thing under our control at this point is to prevent a spike of cases.
We must dispense with the idea that our parents or grandparents can be kept in
a perpetual bubble and will NEVER get the disease. We might however take steps
that ensure that it unfolds slowly enough that adequate medical care will be
available.

------
gzu
The time to act was weeks ago. We haven't even stopped international flights
in from Milan.

[https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAE205/history/20200310/...](https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAE205/history/20200310/1410Z/LIMC/KJFK)

~~~
hastes
It is interesting that this sentiment keeps popping up regarding the US
handling of the situation. The US was fast and early to react, especially
compared to the US handling of the swine flu... and people seem to just
completely ignore that fact or throw it out the window completely.

~~~
alphabettsy
Fast and early compared to whom? We knew it was coming and it seems like we’re
still making preparations and only started after we unloaded a ship of sick
passengers without proper planning.

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donohoe
This has been true for some time.

The priority now is that slow its spread as much as possible so medical
resources are not overwhelmed.

The scenario of a million people sick in one month is very very different from
a million people sick over 3 months.

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baxtr
Strange, I often read/hear that from German scientists too. But I wonder: why
has China succeeded in (maybe only temporarily) stopping and reversing the
exponential growth? South Korea seems also to be on the path of achieving
this.

Of course, there is the possibility that numbers jump again like crazy once
the heavy restrictions are lifted. But I still wonder why there is no second
Wuhan situation somewhere else in China.

~~~
me_me_me
> But I wonder: why has China succeeded in (maybe only temporarily) stopping
> and reversing the exponential growth?

I heard rumors that Chinese doctors got quotas of max cases they can report,
then they have to make something else up.

Plus all other stuff that they enforce there, like mass spraying, presonal
lockdowns etc. That must play role too.

Problem with China is that you can never trust what they report, as they are
not allowing any outside org in to check /help/advice.

~~~
baxtr
Yeah, you’re probably onto something. They’re probably keen on “shaping their
version of the whole story”

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caust1c
Weren't epidemiologists saying this in mid January after the first scientific
analyses came out of China?

Not sure there's anything novel here. Just another epidemiologist continuing
to try and get the word out and people continuing to ignore the science.

Maybe politicians will actually listen to someone from Harvard now though, one
can hope.

~~~
hastes
I really love how an opposing opinion to "the appeal to authority fallacy" has
somehow turned into "denying/ignoring the science!", can people not be allowed
to dissect and create an opposing opinion or conclusion of the facts that are
presented by these figures?

~~~
caust1c
Of course they can, but this is just click bait is my point.

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bachmeier
Is there any point in linking to articles we can't read?

~~~
elorant
How's that? I can read the article just fine.

~~~
kangnkodos
... after I turned on translate, and clicked on "Accept" (Akzeptieren).

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tranchms
The log flatlined. What does that tell us?

~~~
hastes
That people love to fearmonger for views and ratings, also they want someone
to blame that has absolutely nothing to do with the outbreak.

Personally I think this entire thing is blown extremely out of proportion by
the media (at least in the US, where we are rated #1 at preventing things like
this). Compare it at the same time to swine flu and the results are extremely
interesting.

~~~
QUFB
What do you think about Marc Lipsitch's analysis is overblown?

~~~
hastes
I wasn't referring directly to this article with the "fearmongering" opinion.
However, in regards to Lipsitch's analysis he uses a lot of "may be, we don't
know, etc.." speculation that seems to hint that even the experts don't quite
have the full grasp of the situation yet either.

I am all for safety and notifying the public of immediate threats, and taking
the correct precautions. But, at this point it seems increasingly that these
predictions and analysis are being too quickly released with not enough
information so you get great amounts of speculation which therein fuels panic.

------
haunter
-

~~~
Tepix
That is explained in the following sentences.

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the-peter
There never was any hope that it could be stopped. The goal is to slow down
the spread so the medical system isn't overwhelmed and people can be helped.

------
simias
Neither can the Coronavirus posts on HN it seems. There are a million trillion
websites where you can discuss your favourite doomsday theories about this
pandemic, can we please spare this place?

