
Can we survive extreme heat? - anigbrowl
https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/climate-crisis-goodell-survive-extreme-heat-875198/
======
fulafel
It's puzzling that this focuses on the US. It's framing the question so that
those of "we" in the most vulnerable regions are not even considered.

~~~
anigbrowl
Most of Rolling Stone's readership is in the US.

------
cheald
Phoenix seems like an odd choice of example here. It's hot here. We're used to
it, we have a lot of systems in place to deal with it, and we're one of the
best places in the country to weather temperature increases because of our
extremely low humidity.

> Flights may be delayed at Sky Harbor International Airport because the
> planes can’t get enough lift in the thin, hot air.

This isn't actually the reason - the reason is liability. It makes a fun
story, but nah (another local variant of the story is that the blacktop is so
hot that the planes' tires melt. Also a myth.) The aircraft were certified to
operate at temperatures of up to 117.86F. Beyond that, if there's an accident
(even if completely unrelated to heat), the airline exposes themselves to
liability for operating outside of certified ranges. The FAA recently
recertified the CRJ700 and CRJ900 for operating temperatues of up to 123.8F -
and they're flying just fine. Physics didn't change.

[https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix-
weather/2...](https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix-
weather/2018/07/24/phoenix-flights-never-too-hot-fly-out-sky-harbor-airport-
american-airlines/827871002/)

> Last year, there were 181 heat-related deaths in Arizona’s Maricopa County,
> nearly three times the number from four years earlier.

4 years earlier was a local minimum. 2 years before that, there were 110 heat
deaths. Also not discussed: the correlated increase in drug-related heat-
linked deaths, and the higher prevalence of heat death among the elderly
coupled with an aging population. 2017/2018 were very clear statistical
outliers. This is a textbook example of the univariate fallacy combined with
cherry-picking to lie with statistics.

[https://www.maricopa.gov/ArchiveCenter/ViewFile/Item/3492](https://www.maricopa.gov/ArchiveCenter/ViewFile/Item/3492)

> According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, between 2004
> and 2017, about a quarter of all weather-related deaths were caused by
> excessive heat, far more than other natural disasters such as hurricanes and
> tornadoes.

But less than flash floods and tropical storms. Why were hurricanes and
tornadoes chosen for comparison?

[https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/home-and-community/safety-
topics...](https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/home-and-community/safety-
topics/weather-related-deaths-and-injuries/)

Or why wasn't it mentioned that the CDC reports a higher rate of cold-related
deaths than heat related deaths?

> Based on information from death certificates, 10,649 deaths were attributed
> to weather-related causes in the United States during 2006–2010. Nearly one-
> third of the deaths were attributed to excessive natural heat, and almost
> two-thirds were attributed to excessive natural cold.

[https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr076.pdf](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr076.pdf)

> A pedestrian uses an umbrella to get some relief from the sun as she walks
> past a sign displaying the temperature

Because the main source of discomfort out here is direct solar radiation (due
to geography and lower humidity resulting in lower diffusion) - not ambient
air temperature (ie, a primary effect of carbon-driven heat retention). Once
you're out of direct sunlight, it's significantly less unpleasant. Also,
because skin cancer is a concern due to the significantly higher solar
intensity - our direct normal solar irradiance is around the highest in the
nation. Keep out of direct sunlight and the environment is significantly less
awful, even pleasant.

[https://www.nrel.gov/gis/assets/pdfs/solar_dni_2018_01.pdf](https://www.nrel.gov/gis/assets/pdfs/solar_dni_2018_01.pdf)

I could go on, but I think it's clear that based on just the opening
paragraphs, I don't think the article is very honestly presented.

I don't mean to imply that there aren't challenges to be solved - there
certainly are. But, Phoenix isn't "just like where you live, except hotter".
It's a fundamentally different kind of climate, one that doesn't really do
well with extrapolation from your upstate New York climate with the
temperature dial ratcheted up 20 degrees, and it's an environment where humans
have built the entire infrastructure around the reality of extreme heat. Using
it as a scary bogeyman vision of the future where we're just one blackout away
from mass deaths, to a readership who live in temperate, humid climates just
makes me roll my eyes.

------
lordnacho
Certainly a grim picture of the dangers of higher temperatures, but won't we
also avoid a lot of people freezing to death?

~~~
Eric_WVGG
A lot of people live along the equator. Statistically nobody lives at the
poles.

~~~
eikenberry
Obviously if the inhabitable region of the planet changes, people will
eventually shift to live in those regions. So fewer people at the equator,
more people living near poles.

~~~
jacobolus
It definitely won’t be a problem if 2 billion people become climate refugees
and move to higher latitudes....

~~~
eikenberry
Never said it would be smooth sailing. Just that over time, we'd adjust. But
that time would be bloody.

------
lazyjones
I don't even bother reading this kind of alarmist nonsense anymore. We are
well-prepared for a few more degrees K, but they are not expected during the
next century or so. We have much more pressing problems and this stuff is
taking up a far too large part of our daily attention.

~~~
antisthenes
> We are well-prepared for a few more degrees K, but they are not expected
> during the next century or so.

This is just flat out false, considering we have gone from 0 to 1 degree of
warming in ~35 years; 40, if you're generous.

We are well on track for _at least_ another 2 degree warming by end the
century.

~~~
lazyjones
> _we have gone from 0 to 1 degree of warming in ~35 years; 40, if you 're
> generous._

Because it got colder between 1950 and 1975. See:

> _The Earth is generally regarded as having warmed about about 1° C (1.8° F)
> since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, around 1750. In 2017, two
> professional papers generated much debate in both the popular press and
> professional literature about whether this figure is correct. Schurer, et
> al. argued the rise is 1.2° C (2.2° F) and Millar, et al. claimed the rise
> is 0.9° C (1.6° F)._

[https://www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2018/09/07/exactly-
how...](https://www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2018/09/07/exactly-how-much-has-
the-earth-warmed-and-does-it-matter/)

