
History tells us what will happen next with Brexit and Trump - gnocchi
https://medium.com/@theonlytoby/history-tells-us-what-will-happen-next-with-brexit-trump-a3fefd154714
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jacquesm
The real problem is that prior to the assassination of Arch duke Ferdinand
there most likely were writings like these in well respected publications, and
yet it made no difference. An avalanche is not the direct result of the first
stone going downhill but of storing a bunch of potential energy in an unstable
configuration. After that all you need is a suitably large first shove
(activation energy) to unleash all of that potential energy.

Humanity has a lot of momentum and if enough deadwood accumulates in the
forest because of putting out small fires you end up with a (much) bigger one.

Chances are that we are already long past our 'Arch duke' moment we just don't
realize it yet. Historians have the advantage of being able to look at things
after the facts are in and if WWI/II had not happened nobody would have
assigned much in terms of significance to that particular assassination.

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venomsnake
> During the Centenary of the Battle of the Somme I was struck that it was a
> direct outcome of the assassination of an Austrian Arch Duke in Bosnia.

For an author that claims to know history that is laughingly bad. My 8th grade
teached told us - "if anyone of you says that this is the cause or reason for
WWI - you fail the whole year. It is a trigger."

> Trump says he will Make America Great Again, when in fact America is
> currently great, according to pretty well any statistics.

Except the only real measure of country greatness - its relative standing to
the others. It is "To rule in hell ..." when countries compare. The peak of US
greatness was 1945-1955. The US at the end of WWII was having half of the
world GDP, unmatched industrial base AND sole nuclear power. You just cannot
top that.

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jacquesm
> The peak of US greatness was 1945-1955. The US at the end of WWII was having
> half of the world GDP, unmatched industrial base AND sole nuclear power. You
> just cannot top that.

Indeed, but that only worked because most of the rest of the industrial world
was lying in ruins. By that measure 'making America great again' is scary
indeed.

