
Ask HN: What's the end game for Covid-19? - whack
When we first started taking precautions against the virus, I figured the goal was to halt its spread. However, the more recent consensus seems to be that we are doing this to &quot;flatten the curve&quot;. Ie, we know that the virus cannot be contained, but we can slow down its spread, so that our hospitals do not get overwhelmed.<p>Somewhat paradoxically, the more successful we are at flattening the curve, the longer we will need to be in a state of shutdown. The estimates I&#x27;ve been hearing from experts is that 20-60% of Americans will eventually get infected. And that if we&#x27;re successful in &quot;flattening the curve&quot;, it will take 12-18 months before the virus plateaus off. Which is roughly when a vaccine will be ready for mass-use as well.<p>Assuming that the current shutdown measures are successful and we flatten the curve over a 12-18 month period, what exactly is our end game here? Are we going to sustain our current lockdowns for the entire upcoming year?<p>As a tech worker who is happily working from home, I don&#x27;t mind at all. But what about all the people working retail, dining, entertainment, tourism, and similar industries? Are we willing to accept putting them out of work for an entire year? The shutdown has barely been in place for 2 weeks, and people are already suffering under the financial burden. The $1000 payout being considered will certainly help... but only temporarily. Can we really handle extending the status quo for an entire year?
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anigbrowl
Literally nobody knows. Assuming that as an epidemic it will burn itself out
(perhaps killing many, with most of the survivors gaining immunity), the
enormous economic dislocation and disproportionate demographic impacts will
likely result in political turbulence, as those who were less well off under
the rapidly disappearing status quo have no reason to assist in its re-
establishment.

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mytailorisrich
Lockdowns do not have to last that long.

Once the epidemic is under control they can be lifted, but precautions and
strict procedures must remain, which depend on the people being diligent and
with a strong civic sense.

See China, Korea, etc.

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cmurf
What percent of each of these populations is infected? Wuhan has been in
lockdown for six weeks, its not lifted. And obviously they still have many
millions older than 65 who haven't been infected, they have no immunity. Lift
the lockdown with even one infected person escaping, and the epidemic ignites
again.

And this is way more problematic in the U.S. are we going to have lockdowns
everyone there's a flare up? How's that going to work?

