
Could gambling save science? (1990) - mathattack
http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/gamble.html
======
hamilyon2
>funding an automatic inventory-based [St] market-maker, which always offers
to buy or sell at prices determined solely by its current inventory, one gives
away money only to those who move the market price in the direction of its
final verdict. Interesting idea. So, by pumping money to such market, one
could establish current consensus without having to ask anyone and if current
consensus is on the wrong side, you just get some money as consolatory prize.

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tedsanders
This submission was probably sparked by the recent prediction market results
from the Social Science Replication Project. In this study, a prediction
market with 206 traders and $20,600 of incentives was able to predict whether
21 psychology studies would replicate with pretty astounding accuracy (5/5
bets with <50% predicted did not actually replicate, and 13/16 with >50% did -
and the 3 misses were predicted at like 51%, 52%, 53%).

Coverage by the Atlantic here:
[https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/08/scientis...](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/08/scientists-
can-collectively-sense-which-psychology-studies-are-weak/568630/)

Coverage by 538 on previous work by the same authors:
[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-to-tell-good-
studie...](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-to-tell-good-studies-from-
bad-bet-on-them/)

Commentary on LessWrong here:
[https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7w2tCRocphK9yW8rG/unknown-
kn...](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7w2tCRocphK9yW8rG/unknown-knowns)

And my own thoughts here:
[https://www.facebook.com/tedsanders/posts/10106092033737384](https://www.facebook.com/tedsanders/posts/10106092033737384)

For reference, I was one of the top prize winners on SciCast.org, an academic
science prediction market that Robin Hanson (author of linked article) was
involved in. I personally am excited by scientific prediction markets because
they are a systematic way of making hidden knowledge public.

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zone411
I was sad to see intrade.com close. predictit.org still offers political
prediction markets.

BTW, Robin Hanson's blog is a good read:
[http://www.overcomingbias.com/](http://www.overcomingbias.com/). He explores
in-depth the topic of "Ems" (people emulated on computers in a world where AGI
doesn't exist).

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MrEfficiency
>Yet little has really changed. Academia is still largely a medieval guild,
with a few powerful elites, many slave-like apprentices, and members who hold
a monopoly on the research patronage of princes and the teaching of their
sons. Outsiders still complain about bias, saying their evidence is ignored,
and many observers [Gh,Re,Syk,Tu] have noted some long-standing problems with
the research component of academia.

I dont consider 'research' science. I consider engineering more scientific.

You dont get to fudge data when you need things to work. Things need to work.
And if you did mess up, you will keep working until things 'work'.

Academia produces a paper and these are rarely verified.

~~~
octopoc
This is one of the points the author makes in the book "Antifragile: Things
That Gain From Disorder". He points out that one of the big examples of
something where theory came first, then application came afterwards is the
atomic bomb.

In a lot of other areas of practical invention, application comes first, then
people come in afterwards with a theory. And frequently, the theorists take
credit for the invention as if the theory had come first. He had some examples
of this happening.

~~~
MrEfficiency
This hits home the most in Industrial Engineering.

That field was not invented by academics, that was done by industry, and
academia realized there was demand to teach it.

Getting a PhD in Industrial Engineering seemed like a contradiction. The
studies my professors were pushing seemed useless and untestable. I tried to
make suggestions towards my interests, using big data on life at home, or
specific ergonomic issues were useful to every human alive.

When I left both my meetings with the professors, I realized I would be at
their whim for the next 4-6 years.

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yosyp
This is the same Robin Hanson that recently authored "The Elephant in the
Brain: Hidden Motives in Everyday Life". His physics background makes for
interesting economic analyses.

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webkike
Staking reputation does not reward people who are right, rather than it
rewards people who are good at being right

~~~
nafey
How are the two different when you talk about scientific theories?

~~~
pitt1980
PR and taking credit

