
I Hope This Bubble Kills The App - acconrad
http://adamconrad.posterous.com/i-hope-this-bubble-kills-the-app
======
acconrad
DISCLAIMER: for the record, this is a rant I wrote at 3 am so please don't
take it too seriously. I'm mostly sharing it so you can have a good laugh,
because apparently a few people thought it was funny and said I should share
it.

~~~
cgrusden
Haha, I laughed so hard I pee'd a lil.

This is something that keeps me up at night. It gives me anxiety to think that
more and more useless apps are not only being developed, but funded. What the
fuck. The thing is, building something today that solves a problem, isn't
going to make you a "rockstar" if it's not sexy and social :(

~~~
rewind
I'd rather be a rich nobody than a poor rockstar. If you keep solving real
problems, I'm sure you'll be fine.

------
thetrumanshow
Ahem:
[http://www.cnn.com/2010/HEALTH/11/08/twinkie.diet.professor/...](http://www.cnn.com/2010/HEALTH/11/08/twinkie.diet.professor/index.html)
:)

Just sayin'. But, to your point, yes I would welcome a world where all the
ultra low-fi junk would disappear and where there was less noise in the app
marketplace... like 2003, except with today's consumer awareness.

But the exact opposite will happen. Right now, our peers are building tools to
allow ever lower-fidelity apps to enter the marketplace, that is, enabling
less and less qualified people to try their hand at building products.

I have yet to find the saving grace in this situation. I see two paths: 1)
create tools to help people build crap apps, and make money while I can, 2)
move up the value chain, and make money while I can.

~~~
jpadvo
Personally, I think democratizing technology is a really, really good thing.
Sure, we have to suffer through things like Comic Sans abuse and crappy apps,
but that is a minuscule price to pay for increasing the creative freedom of
humanity.

That's fundamentally why we build new tools -- to increase the freedom of
people to impact the world.

[Edit: Just read the article you linked. Losing 27 pounds by eating twinkies?
Priceless. :) ]

~~~
kragen
App stores do not democratize technology. App stores limit access to
technology to Officially Approved Developers who don't piss off the platform
owner.

~~~
moxiemk1
Democratizing technology isn't fundamentally about Freedom and Openness and
Fairness.

It's about making technology useable by everyday people.

You can do that by making everyone an engineer, or by placing arbitrary limits
that increase the likelihood of people using the thing, or any number of ways.
Limiting access to technology can absolutely democratize it.

------
peter78
Meh.

Apple first tried to push developers to the web. It was because of the hacking
community that apps got popular and they opened up the iPhone OS (now iOS).

Mobile apps are great for small and quick functional tasks. It's not a great
interface to do incredibly complicated actions unless they can be done at the
press of a button, minimal typing or by a swipe.

I agree there's a lot of crud out there but I'd like to see where Adam Conrad
has solved world hunger, ended climate change or stopped wars. He calls
everyone else out. Where's his contribution to solving HUGE problems? :)

I think small apps by small teams have to start from somewhere. However, we
probably don't need any more fart or lighter apps.

~~~
acconrad
I'm 25...Einstein didn't publish his theory of relativity until he was 26.
Give me a year...but seriously, I'm trying. I may not be mother Teresa, but I
volunteer at shelters and I've donated a fair amount to the acs and relay for
life. And I know my blood was uses to save someone's life. Baby steps. Change
one life at a time. Rome wasn't built in a day, but I'm pretty sure ifart was
(zing)

~~~
peter78
At 25 Zuckerberg was a billionaire. ;P

~~~
danssig
Not really, but ok.

------
kragen
Did the last bubble kill the website?

I mean, I remember when a website was something a company _had_ , not
something a company _was_.

The trend toward per-project companies is, I think, fundamentally a good one.
It means less job security, but more creative freedom, and probably more money
going to the creators and less to managers.

~~~
Stormbringer
The job security is an illusion anyway.

------
deveren
This is the exact problem companies wishing to develop useful programs face
everyday. Now we have a consumer base that only buys because of hype/something
going "viral". If you do create something beneficial one of the only ways to
be noticed is to treat what you develop as one if those "candy" apps. The
words software, and programs have disappeared.

It's still a bit of a gold rush, and investors mean well. However, there needs
to be more innovative thinking on their end as well. We don't need a new photo
sharing program, or ways to post a picture online. It's funny that this
article uses weightless angle be because all of this technology has made us,
well bigger. Technology is great, but it's time we get back to solving real
problems.

BTW, I'm looking for an excellent programmer for a new project!

------
api
" _...Ninja Warrior Agile ScrumMaster and Incompetent MBA Popped Collar..._ "

Epic.

~~~
jacoblyles
Not really. Just stringing together buzzwords that irritate engineers.
Variants of this kind of stuff have been around forever.

~~~
borism
That's why it's epic.

------
klochner
Without twinkie apps he wouldn't have a hipster 8-bit twitter profile pic:

<https://twitter.com/adam_conrad>

~~~
acconrad
Oh noes, fallibility in my logic! How could I have not checked myself before I
wrecked myself! I should probably just close down my Posterous account right
now and save face. Never again will I indulge in anything less than pure,
unadulterated value. FFFUUUUU!

EDIT: I thought it was funny. I would totally call me out too haha. Ah man,
totally ruins my cred, you know, cause I had some to begin with :-p

~~~
klochner
Let he who is without sin cast the first stone.

Please come correct next time.

(I did appreciate "Incompetent MBA Popped Collar")

[edit] he really doesn't deserve negative karma for that, chill out people.

------
Cherian_Abraham
So does that mean that people should stop working on the problem domain that
is "social and sharing" ? I would say, not quite. But the "Me too" herd
mentality is not helping, not just in terms of the amount of capital that is
thrown at it, but talent that could have been better spent elsewhere now toils
away in making another Groupon clone because he has tunnel vision.

We are working in the domain of contextual discovery and there are a number of
juicy problems right there. Determining what is useful to you so that we can
deliver that alone, based on where you are, why you are there and who you are
with. Thats a meaty problem to solve. One of them, at least.

~~~
acconrad
I never said that. I said that there are real problems worth solving, and not
all of them are in the social space. There is still plenty of value to be
added to the social landscape, just don't forget the domains that aren't the
bees knees at the moment.

------
mraybman
Great read, but I think that if the VCs can resist the temptation of investing
too much too early there does exist a positive outcome.

We might just see feature development moving away from teams in big companies
into smaller, independent teams. These will raise small amounts of money from
angels and micro-VC's and get bought out en masse for mild sums by companies
looking to add features and products.

------
JabavuAdams
Incoherent drivel. I hope this bubble kills the content-free vanity blog post
/ spam.

Seriously, just don't write this crap. It's no good.

~~~
acconrad
Not only did you fail to read my disclaimer, but according to your profile you
make iPhone games. I guess I cut to the core of you, Baxter.

~~~
kreek
This reply like the article had vaguely immature tone to it, but it was also
the second time the author had me laughing today. I don't see it as any
different than Lewis Black going off on politicians. As long as you're smart
about it, and not just being crude for the sake of it, it works.

~~~
acconrad
Bingo. Cmon people just laugh and move on.

------
zmonkeyz
Don't blame Apple for the app. Originally they wanted people to develop web
apps and not software that runs on the phone. The people demanded it and they
went with it.

------
lwhi
I agree with some of this article, even though it seems it's fairly tongue-in-
cheek.

The problem isn't accessibility - the problem is (mindless) venture capital.
There are people with money (and low wisdom / experience) who have learnt that
you can invest in tech and make a huge return - in some cases, this has taken
the focus away from creating sustainable and useful businesses.

Perhaps hackers are simply the cogs in the wheels of modern finance?

------
gte910h
The idea that small useful programs should die and not be sold is a sad idea
IMO.

And app is not necessarily a business, but it isn't something that should die.

~~~
acconrad
Except you said "useful." I'm all for that. But you should keep building them.
Just cause a company builds a useful application does not mean they should
close up shop and start elsewhere with a new name.

------
aspir
My thoughts exactly. Doesn't anyone want to innovate, or "change the world"
anymore?

If someone's going to go through all of the labor to make a copy of groupon or
an iFart app or a twitter API mashup just for the cash, they should just write
a Forex trading algorithm. They'll make more money that way, and their models
will be infinitely more computationally unique than any consumer copycat.

~~~
praptak
_"If someone's going to go through all of the labor to make a copy of groupon
or an iFart app or a twitter API mashup just for the cash, they should just
write a Forex trading algorithm."_

You mean writing one that makes money? That's infinitely harder than the
examples you provided.

Quite a lot of smart guys put nontrivial effort into that. You need to be as
good as them, preferably even a little better. Good luck.

~~~
borism
Smart guys don't trade Forex.

------
mindball
but wait I thought apps were all the rage? :s
[http://mashable.com/2011/03/23/mobile-by-the-numbers-
infogrp...](http://mashable.com/2011/03/23/mobile-by-the-numbers-infogrpahic)

------
dakrisht
Great read

------
sabat
There is no stock market bubble.

 _News flash: coupons are still boring and I don’t want to give out my email
address to a service I don’t even know I’ll benefit from. So now we have an
App Store that serves nothing but candy, and we all love candy don’t we?_

The OP is not the intended audience for most/all of the apps he's talking
about. I don't think he understands that.

There are apps and companies that seem to be absolutely superfluous -- how
many Groupon clones do we need? (Do we even really need Groupon?)

But the market will decide that. Not us nerds.

~~~
borism
_There is no stock market bubble._

nobody said there was a _stock market_ bubble. but I suggest you to check few
graphs on Google/Yahoo Finance.

 _But the market will decide that. Not us nerds._

I hope _us nerds_ are a little bit more aware about stuff going on than _Mr.
Market_.

~~~
sabat
_nobody said there was a stock market bubble_

That's what the word "bubble" refers to, though. If the OP didn't mean a stock
market bubble, he should explain what he does mean. A "bubble" of investing?
Why would it warrant the analogy of a bubble? What horrible things happen if
and when VC investments don't pan out?

What people are trying to call a bubble is actually just an increase in
investment by VCs, sometimes good investments, sometimes bad, and sometimes
there are overvaluations.

But if you think we're in a bubble, you either don't remember the real bubble
of 1999 or you misunderstood what the problem was.

 _I suggest you to check few graphs on Google/Yahoo Finance_

Considering the deep trough we just came out of, it makes sense that we see a
stock market uptick. Moving up != inherently bad.

~~~
borism
_That's what the word "bubble" refers to, though_

why? not at all. last spectacular bubble was in real estate - it was
accompanied by stock market rise but not by any means stock market bubble.

~~~
Tycho
Was the real estate itself part of the bubble? I thought there was lots of
trading of mortgage-backed assets that went on the ridiculous assumption that
house prices would continue to rise indefinitely, then when they stopped
rising the derived (high-volume) trading was exposed as irresponsible. So the
bubble would be in credit-default-swaps or whatever you call them, not in
actual property.

Someone who knows what they're talking about explain please!

~~~
wrs
Yes, the bubble was in real estate. "People believe the value of X will rise
indefinitely" is pretty much the definition of "there's a bubble in X". A lot
of dumb things, not just selling exotic derivatives, were done based on the
assumption that house prices could not fall. For example, people used crazy
leverage to buy houses, figuring its value had to go up. Now they are
underwater on their zero-down adjustable mortgages.

------
fleitz
Uh... speaking of being the next Mark Zuckerberg have you heard of Facemash?
It's exactly the kind of crap the lean startup movement is trying to foster.
That's exactly the idea, that any idiot can make a website, scrape some
content and become a billionaire.

Yes, today Facebook has scaling issues but seriously any idiot with a book on
PHP could make the original Facebook (the tech side, Facebook is all about
execution and not tech).

Regarding companies being the app, have you heard of Microsoft, Oracle or SAP?
Ok, granted Microsoft has two apps Windows AND Office, but why do you think
Microsoft started branding everything Windows? All those companies are built
off of a single 'app'.

Microsoft = DOS then Windows Oracle = Oracle DB SAP = SAP

One company who embodies the one app.

