
Microsoft Prediction Lab - metermaid
https://www.prediction.microsoft.com/
======
tedsanders
I'm excited that Microsoft is dedicating some resources toward building a
prediction market platform. It joins the space now occupied by Foresight
Exchange, SciCast, Inkling Markets, Lumenogic, Predictious, Truthcoin, and
similar software platforms. Hopefully Microsoft will build a better product
and find more success, though so far it seems like the lack of prediction
market uptake seems to be the result of low demand, not low supply.

As a long-time participant in prediction markets, I'll a list of my initial
impressions of the Microsoft platform.

(1) I think it's big mistake to mix opinion polls with forecasts. It's quite
confusing when one set of questions asks for facts and another set asks for
opinions. It's also confusing when one set affects your score and another set
does not. I think users would have a better experience if the two categories
were totally separated (or if the opinion polls were just axed).

(2) The scoring method they're using is not at all transparent. I suspect it's
the logarithmic scoring rule (best for low-volume markets), but the interface
doesn't make it clear how the bets relate to the odds. (Look at SciCast.org
for one way of doing this.) I understand that the math behind betting can be
offputting to new users, but it's also tough to get engagement when new users
don't really understand the possible actions or their consequences.

(3) The default bet sizes are awful. 100 points out of a 1,000 point balance
means you'll be practically done with the site after 10 bets. Even if your
bets are accurate, you can't bet again until they resolve. The SciCast play
money market has had significant problems making accurate predictions because
of a lack of liquidity for its high-volume users, who also tend to be the most
accurate users.

(4) I think I've already run into some bugs. When I vote in polls, it looks
like my vote is being assigned to a choice different from the one I voted on.

(5) I thought the design looked nice at first, but there are some usability
problems. It's annoying how forecasts with three options require you to click
a small button to scroll from side to side. A big part of casual non-
algorithmic prediction market participation is quickly scanning over the
markets to look for obvious mistakes. Making it hard to scan over the
forecasts makes the market harder to use and less accurate.

Anyway, the momentum behind prediction markets has been growing for years.
Perhaps in the future more companies will try experimenting with internal
markets to predict things like whether projects will finish on time or on
budget.

I wish Microsoft success with this new product.

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freehunter
I'm not sure I understand. I have 1000 points, but I only have 400 points for
this week? When I spend my points on a bet, my available points don't
decrease? There are only three polls I can bet on, the rest are just free
opinion polls?

Not sure if I'm missing something.

~~~
freehunter
Ah I figured it out. Some of the polls are polls and some are predictions.
That's user un-friendly.

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andrewfong
Sounds similar to the Good Judgement Project:
[https://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/](https://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/)

Related article:
[http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/04/02/297839429/-so-...](http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/04/02/297839429/-so-
you-think-youre-smarter-than-a-cia-agent)

~~~
phreeza
I signed up for the next season of the GJP after reading that article when it
was on HN. Pretty excited to get started.

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amaks
Interesting. What's also interesting is that they allow signing in with the
Google+ accounts.

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briandh
Will data culled from here be used in Bing Predicts?

( [http://blogs.microsoft.com/next/2014/06/11/how-does-bing-
pre...](http://blogs.microsoft.com/next/2014/06/11/how-does-bing-predict-the-
future/) )

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Stronico
Oddly - I'm about to roll out my own prediction market next month. Does anyone
know if they have tried something like this before?

~~~
mappu
I understand prediction markets are illegal in some countries, but
ipredict.co.nz is very popular here and is often covered in mainstream media.

~~~
eru
If you let people predict with play money only, it should be legal in most
countries.

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ck2

          [HT Error] sessionStorage is null
    

(pro-tip: don't design around mandatory local storage, there is no good
reason)

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muyuu
Reminds me of [https://www.predictious.com/](https://www.predictious.com/)

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salimmadjd
this would make an ideal mobile experience. I wish they had provided an API to
build an app on top of it.

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AnnetteB
Alrighttt!! The Tec-giant is emerging again! Really excited to hear this news.

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csom
Maybe it can predict which Microsoft lab will be closed next? ;-)

