
Ask HN: Due to global warming, where would you move to or avoid? - spraak
I live on a Pacific island. I&#x27;ve been considering buying a house (instead of renting), but if I think about a timescale of more than 20 years, it seems like a poor investment, considering that it may be very uncomfortable to live here by then. Considering the climate changes, but also social and economic factors, where would you move, or where would you avoid (e.g. how I am considering avoiding living here long term)?
======
richjdsmith
This is something I have been putting a lot of thought into lately. My wife
and I have been fortunate to have lived in France, England and Spain over the
past decade, as well as being regular visitors (+6x/year) to the United
States.

The more places I see, the more I realize that the area of the world I grew up
in, the interior of British Columbia, Canada or where my wife grew up in
Alberta, Canada, are both better suited to handle the projected long-term
adverse climate changes than anywhere else I've ever been.

With the use of greenhouses, their easy access to abundant fresh water and
readily accessible energy I think they're both well-suited areas to long-term
stability.

~~~
thrower123
In general, temperate regions of the world are boring, but safe, and really
good places for humans to live. That's why I love New England; there's lots of
fresh water, there's no significant tectonic activity, you might catch the
remnants of a hurricane once a decade. There are nearly no poisonous animals.

It snows a little bit, that's about the worst you can say.

~~~
laxk
What is about Lyme disease?

~~~
freehunter
Lyme disease is a lot easier to avoid than a hurricane and easier to treat
than a high-rise collapsing on you during an earthquake.

------
username444
I think it's important to note that the proper term is climate change.

It's not just warming. It's rising sea levels. And where I live (in land,
northern hemisphere), we're seeing increased flooding due to higher rain fall.

Winters aren't necessarily colder, but the growing season for crops is
consistently out-of-whack and has ruined multiple crops over the year.

In-land, near lakes in the northern hemisphere may be hot less drastically,
but everywhere is being affected.

~~~
colek42
Grain yields in the US have on average increased every year since 1930. Global
warming is a real issue, but to say that farming is currently being effected
is not supported by much emperical evidence.
[https://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/timeless/yieldtren...](https://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/timeless/yieldtrends.html)

~~~
MH15
Flooding along the midwestern rivers has begun to destroy crop fields. Many
attribute these floods to climate change. [https://www.reuters.com/article/us-
usa-weather-agriculture/u...](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-
agriculture/us-farmers-face-devastation-following-midwest-floods-
idUSKCN1R12J0)

~~~
leereeves
The midwest has always experienced flooding. For example:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Mississippi_Flood_of_192...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Mississippi_Flood_of_1927)

------
marapuru
That's a very interesting question. Have you already been researching some
solutions? And if so, which resources did you use?

I'd say the most important aspects could be: \- Available fresh water

\- Population density

\- Job availability

\- Pollution (water / air / ground)

\- Political stability

\- Common spoken languages

This could make a nice base for a webapp where you can figure out where to go
for the next big migration :)

Some websites I found so far

\- [http://datasets.wri.org](http://datasets.wri.org) (datasets on many
earthly aspects :))

\-
[http://www.aneki.com/freshwater_countries.html](http://www.aneki.com/freshwater_countries.html)
(biggest bodies of fresh water)

\- [http://flood.firetree.net/](http://flood.firetree.net/) (water levels)

\-
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_ren...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_renewable_water_resources)

\- [https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/maps-and-graphics/most-
po...](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/maps-and-graphics/most-polluted-
countries/)

------
CondensedBrain
Climate refugees are going to be the big issue, not where to choose to move if
you have that freedom. Any question of where to go has to somehow answer "What
happens when everyone else who can tries to go there?"

~~~
tonyedgecombe
It seems inevitable that borders are going to harden over the coming decades,
I can't see the politics unfolding in any other way.

~~~
guidoism
I realize that this is the current trend in both Europe and the US, but I
wonder if this is the best (realpolitik) strategy.

Not to mention the moral issues surrounding letting tens of millions suffer
and die because we don't want to help people.

Can you really keep out tens of millions of people with a wall?

~~~
AnimalMuppet
Can you really keep out tens of millions of people with a wall? Absolutely, if
you're willing to enforce it. You may have to kill some of those people to do
so, though. Which puts us right back at your second paragraph.

------
thisone
I'd move somewhere where the government and people actively care about climate
change and don't just say "it's someone else's problem" or "nothing I can do
as an individual will make a difference" or "you first!"

~~~
tuesday20
Where can I find a list of such places?

~~~
8draco8
IMHO countries like Finland, Norway, Sweden. They are pretty hilly countries
with a lot of natural resources and they are actively working for being as
much environmentally friendly as it is possible for a country.

Unfortunately money rules this world so it's a good tactic to start paying
taxes in place where government cares about environment. Hopefully at some
point other countries will realize that investing in ecology is actually
profitable.

------
kaushikt
Definitely avoid Bangladesh :)

[https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/the-
unfoldin...](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/the-unfolding-
tragedy-of-climate-change-in-bangladesh/)

Almost 30 million people will be displaced because of just 3 foot sea level
rise in Bangladesh. This is expected to happen in the next 20years or so.

Most of these people might migrate to India. Maybe avoid India too for similar
reason.

~~~
quickthrower2
India: That and possibly in future being jailed for holding crypto, a human
rights violation IMO. People should be free to trade in general without
government interference except when it causes harm to other people.

~~~
phakding
It's not like crypto hasn't been used for ransoms and such. This gubment is
bad bullshit from libertarian idiots needs to go away.

------
ArtWomb
Bloomberg just did a piece on Boston Seaport development and how expensive
strategies for climate mitigation are already being priced in.

Construction and design of 21st Century seawalls is certainly one of the "hard
tech" challenges of our lifetimes.

Boston Built a New Waterfront Just in Time for the Apocalypse

[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-18/boston-
bu...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-18/boston-built-a-new-
waterfront-just-in-time-for-the-apocalypse)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seawall](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seawall)

------
eb0la
Avoid the mediterranean. Old IPCC models "predicted" tornados in the
mediterranean - there are very brief tornados (google for cap de fiblo) every
now and then near Minorca island (I saw 2 myself).

------
valarauko
I've wondered about this and based on my own personal criteria, I narrowed
down to Canada or New Zealand.

My criteria: * Friendly to immigration * Access to currently untapped
freshwater resources * Not too densely populated * Preferably English speaking

~~~
zuzzurro
Very similar to my thoughts. I'm also considering the possibility to defend
myself. This may be provided by the "not too densely populated" one (but
things are supposed to change in that respect in case of the big trouble). So
potentially an elevated, or hidden place?

~~~
valarauko
I've wondered about the likelihood of needing to defend myself, but since I'm
completely incompetent in that regard, I'll have to opt for security by
obfuscation.

In my musings, the two things that most worry me is an acute shortage of fresh
water, and that any hospitable place I choose is also going to attract hordes
of other climate refugees that will outcompete me. There are places like the
Pacific North West of the US that are likely to fare relatively well in the
Climate Wars. Yet these regions will also attract climate refugees from
elsewhere in the country. Canada has a lot more amenable landmass to work
with, and relatively fewer people to compete with. Ironically, Canada's
acceptance of refugees with open arms gives me pause, since it suggests a
likely destination for global climate refugees (ghastly of me, I know). In
that respect, NZ's geographical isolation and sparse population strike me as
huge pluses.

------
pryelluw
I had to move from Puerto Rico to Atlanta, Georgia after hurricane Maria. It
has worked out ok.

------
RocketSyntax
Move to Raleigh, NC. When the sea level rises, the research triangle will
still be dry. Check this map:
[https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/](https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/)

------
mrfusion
Probably the only safe place would be pretty far underground.

------
Spooky23
Northeast US.

