
Japan Has a New Emperor and a New Era, but a Dark Future - spking
https://www.thedailybeast.com/japan-has-a-new-emperor-naruhito-and-a-new-era-but-a-dark-future-under-shinzo-abe
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sonnyblarney
So a relatively peaceful, orderly society with little violent crime, health
care for pretty much everyone, fairly robust institutions ... is a 'dark
future' ... compared to say, any time in Japan's past? I mean, you don't have
to go back very far ...

~~~
Ultramanoid
What's 'relative' about it ? Every trip we've made in recent years to a
Western country has been truly scary or depressingly sobering.

I get told often I could be earning several times more in Europe and even more
in the U.S. but this coming 'dark future' seems much more reasonable and safe
to me than moving to a country with gun statistics belonging to war, not to
civil society, or the mess of unemployment and sluggishness that was, is, and
will be the EU.

As with the stories about 'stagnant economy' and 'aging society' constantly
being thrown around since the 80s, the scaremongering doesn't match actual
daily life, sorry. Give me deflation any time, happy to buy something for the
same price every year, or pay the same exact rent in any central city in Tokyo
Metro decade after decade.

I just can't see anyone we know living better, being safer or happier in the
West, now or in their immediate future, dark or not.

~~~
sonnyblarney
"I just can't see anyone we know living better, being safer or happier in the
West, now or in their immediate future"

This is basically wrong, by almost every material measure.

So the question then becomes, why do so many feel this way?

I didn't realize that tons of people felt that way about life until I started
reading forums etc.

It's hard to explain but it's possible that people don't have a basis of
comparison - they weren't alive 50 years ago, or those what were, know we are
materially better off. Even the 'complainers' know that 'heart bypass' 25
years ago was a major, dangerous operation, but now a lot of it is trivial.

If you are living in Europe, consider that 2 generations ago 1/2 of it was
_flattened by bombs_. That 6 million were executed. 10's of millions dead. If
you were male, aged 18-30, probably a 20% chance you'd die in war. A greater
chance you'd lose maybe everything.

So just from that ... 'things are unequivocally better'.

At the start of the last century there was no health care insurance (save
maybe German government officials). Most medical operations were amputations,
and we didn't have antibiotics so you would probably die of that, or any other
thing.

My father did not have plumbing or electricity when he was born! Only as a
child did they get that, and they were the first in town to get it, i.e. not
poor.

Very few people had cars back in the day, and they were dangerous and crap.
Now everyone has them.

Flying was for rich people, now working class people can fly.

The number of hours we work is down. Working conditions are considerably
safer. Men and women have career choices never heard of. Homes are way bigger.
Everyone has air conditioning (which nobody had until a generation ago, and
then it was a luxury).

My god man, just the _produce_ available to us - amazing fruits and vegetables
all year around! That's a _new_ things.

Any kind of music, entertainment, at your fingertips!

Any number of electronic wizardly and time-saving things.

You can contact anyone in the world with a thing that sits in your pocket!
This would have 'blown my mind' (and everyone else's) just 25 years ago, when
I was a kid.

Major wars have stopped, the cold war is over, even with the 2007 downturn we
have very good economic stability. In previous recessions a lot of people
starved!

If you're gay, you can be that now. Even get married.

I could go on and on.

So there are many things that we need to look out for, and I feel we lack a
lot of social cohesion and community - but materially, most things are good -
and will be.

FYI - 'deflation' is not just prices going down, it can cause economic 'death
spirals' \- it's just just a number. And population evaporation has some
other, culturally existential spooky things such as _extinction_ of culture,
which is scary. Though I don't think that will happen.

Also - going from 3x workers for every 1 retired, to 1 worker for every 3
retired is a hugely existential economic thing. It will be a problem to
address.

~~~
Ultramanoid
Sure, we can compare life in the EU now with the 1800s too. Or 1492 if you
prefer. And Japan today with Japan in 1945.

That's not the discussion. Let's talk about living standards 15 years ago and
now. Many EU countries are just reaching parity ( finally 11 years later ! )
with 2008 levels. Life was measurably better here in 2008, and since then
until now. The grim dark future of Japan has been predicted again and again
for decades now.

Edit : 'measurably' meaning pick any metric you like. Unemployment, health,
life expectancy, technology, education, safety / crime, cost of living, real
estate... This list can also go on and on.

And this is not to say Japan does not have problems. It's not Paradise at all.

