
Pesticide link to long-term wild bee decline in 18 year study - chestnut-tree
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-37089385
======
Loic
You can download the study[0].

If you look at the model in equations (2), (3) and (4), you can see that they
force fit the decrease in population of the bees on the neonicotinoid
exposure. Because the decrease of the population _in this model_ is only
linked to pesticides, you need a very careful analysis of the confidence
intervals and the quality of the fit or you can fall into the spurious
correlation trap[1].

Also _" The authors acknowledge that their study finds an association and
doesn't prove a cause and effect link between the use of neonicotinoids and
the decline of bee populations."_. Which is good, it means they know the
limits of this study.

The other case is that around 2005, we had a shift to produce more biofuels by
doing more extensive single crop farming. This also had devastating effect on
the biodiversity needed for the bees, insects and the birds.

The last point is, why bees are going very well in Australia even so Australia
is the most extensive user of neonics?

The issues with bees is really a hard problem, most likely a combination of
many factors, so I do not want people to jump on a single factor (the neonics)
then claim victory and move to other things even so neonics are most likely
not the main factor.

This year was bad for our bees, 8 hives, just 1kg honey per hive...

[0]:
[http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160816/ncomms12459/pdf/nco...](http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160816/ncomms12459/pdf/ncomms12459.pdf)
[1]:
[http://tylervigen.com/view_correlation?id=1597](http://tylervigen.com/view_correlation?id=1597)

~~~
madaxe_again
A neighbour who used to keep hives here (France) until a few months ago has
had them repeatedly wiped out by fungal infections, as the combination of hot
and damp then suddenly cold then hot again isn't normal for this part of the
world. They had four false springs here this year - crops suffered too, and
foresters are having a heyday taking dead trees out of the forest.

Like you say, pesticide use alone is unlikely to be the issue - hell DDT and
friends are far less friendly to insects, and we're used far longer - so it's
likely a whole host of anthrogenic factors which are wiping out the bees, much
like many other species.

We're pretty much the worst thing since the cambrian-ordovician extinction
event for biodiversity.

~~~
pvaldes
Not to mention the expansion of the killer bee asiatic vesp in France.

~~~
madaxe_again
Yup - this sort of thing has happened before (parasites spreading outside of
their natural range - i.e.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phylloxera](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phylloxera)),
but as far as I'm aware this is the first time we've seen it happening due to
climatic shifts, rather than direct human involvement (gee, let's import cane
toads to get rid of those pesky beetles).

No amount of biosecurity can defeat threats that travel on the wind.

------
hoodoof
The strange thing is that the response will be "OK so lets create poisons that
kill all insects EXCEPT bees".

~~~
whyenot
We already have many, many, many pesticides that do this, but neonicotinoid
pesticides are really useful for a couple of reasons:

1\. Very low toxicity to mammals. Neonics are used in flea collars, and to
kill lice in farm animal bedding materials for this reason. Neonoics are also
very safe to apply by human applicators.

2\. Neonics are systemic pesticides in plants. They are absorbed into the
plant and provide long term protection against insects pests. Less pesticide
drift, less danger to applicators, BUT it also gets into floral nectar,
causing problems for bees and possibly other insect pollinators.

3\. Neonics are cheap. I can buy 5lbs of Marathon 1G, a neonic pesiticde for
about $80. Something more targeted, such as Rycar is more than $500 for a
similar quantity, and Rycar is not systemic, it has to be applied several
times.

There is a move towards more targeted pesticides such as Rycar, Floramite,
Kontos, etc. but they are expensive, and in many cases more difficult to use.
That's the darn problem. Neonics are terrible for bees, but for agriculture,
they are really useful and there is no clear replacement.

~~~
Joof
Ok, so lets make bees more resistant to Neonics.

:P

~~~
whyenot
the non-native bees shipped around the country (US) and that are the primary
pollinators in agriculture appear to already be fairly resistant to neonics.

~~~
tptacek
Honeybees are themselves non-native! They're an introduced species.

------
ForFreedom
It took 18 years to understand pesticide link to decline in bees!

~~~
jobigoud
Breaking: Insecticide Kills Insects!

------
tptacek
If neonicotinoids are causing a long-term decline in bee populations, why does
their introduction correspond with a global increase in beehives?

~~~
Ratufa
Active hives have increased because beekeepers have reacted to the increase in
bee die-offs by splitting hives and otherwise increasing the number of hives
they have. This causes an increase in demand for queens, and companies that
sell queens will have more hives in order to meet that demand. Also, simple
economic growth is a possible contributor to the increase in number of hives.

~~~
tptacek
Do I properly understand your argument, like the one below, to be that despite
the increase in beehives, there are fewer live bees in the US?

~~~
Ratufa
When you talk about "increase in beehives", are you referring to hives that
are managed by a beekeeper, or hives created by wild bees, and not managed by
a human? When you talk about "fewer live bees", are you referring to wild
bees, or bees in a managed hive? In my previous post, I was only referring to
managed hives.

~~~
tptacek
There _are no feral honeybees_ in the US. They were wiped out, not by neonics,
but by the varroa mite, 30 years ago.

(Before we colonized this place, there were no wild honeybees: they're an
introduced species).

Honeybees are livestock, not wildlife.

~~~
ameliaikeda
As an amateur beekeeper, I can tell you that honeybees _are_ wild, in a sense.
A captured swarm is just a wild colony with the queen trapped in an excluder
box in your hive.

They can't be domesticated, and containing them after they swarm involves
tricking the bees into thinking they are the ones making a decision (you can
turn their hive 90 degrees after they swarm in summer and they will return in
most cases, assuming they've found a new spot for a hive).

Also, mites (and foul brood) are still a pain in the ass and I can see why
bees need a beekeeper to even stand a chance.

~~~
tptacek
I did a little more clicking around, and learned (wait for it) that native
feral honeybees are probably gone in the UK as well. Honeybees in both the UK
and North America are livestock, not wildlife.

~~~
jly
Honeybees are indeed a non-native species to the US, but that doesn't mean
there are not feral honeybees. They can survive just fine in the wild without
us, as they did before they were domesticated, and they continue to do so as
descendants of domesticated apis melifera and other species. This is the same
as the wild boar which has existed in a feral state for centuries in the
southern US, originally from domesticated pigs brought from Europeans. Calling
apis melifera 'not wildlife' does not seem anywhere near accurate.

------
caub
As a fruit lover, I always choose old fruits, the damaged ones, because I
can't bear waste. Most people don't have this behavior, they want shiny,
clean, solid fruits, the ones obtained with pesticides. It's often the
opposite of tasty, but people are stupid

~~~
dmix
What correlation is there between damaged/old fruit and not having pesticides?
They weren't treated exactly the same as the other fruit in the harvest?

------
toodlebunions
Pesticides are linked to insect deaths? What a surprise.

~~~
bArray
Saw that coming. Nothing will be done of course.

------
Zelmor
We have known this the last 20 years, people just don't give a fuck unless the
after-effects are cutting into their profit.

I will miss the bees. I will not miss the people.

~~~
Zelmor
Also, it is fungicide what is the big issue here. It has the same effect on
bees as if you were constantly washing your hands in sanitizers. You remove
the beneficial bacteria (or in the case of bees, fungi AND bacteria) from
their hives, so disruptive and aggressive fungi can invade and destroy them
from the inside.

I've read this in an article when I was 11 years old. The problem, as in most
cases, are the humans. Some days I am wishing for a huge ecological
disruption, famine and another Spanish flu to wipe 50-70% of the globe, even
though I know I too might be one to go in such an event.

In fact, that is what the Gates Foundation is expecting to be a coin-flip
scenario in their lifetime, which is what, the next 20 years or so! So yeah,
prepping in a WW2 bunker with broadband internet and half a year of supplies
in the mountains doesn't sound so crazy after all. When shit hits the fan,
shoot on sight and salt the meat.

------
randomdata
.

~~~
exhilaration
It is not meant to be kept in the ground (few pests come from there anyway) it
is meant to be in any part of the plant that an insect might feed on.

------
Aelinsaar
"We're shocked!" -No One

Seriously though, outside of a few desperate libertarians on the internet who
needed not to believe it, I've never met a serious person who didn't see that
likely connection.

~~~
refurb
There is evidence that neonicotinoids are harmful to bees and there is also
evidence that they aren't. Why makes you so sure it's a slam dunk explanation?

Hell, even the EPA and Dept of Agriculture conducted a massive study and said
it's pretty far down the list of factors in the decline of the honey bee
population.

[1][http://www.usda.gov/documents/ReportHoneyBeeHealth.pdf](http://www.usda.gov/documents/ReportHoneyBeeHealth.pdf)

~~~
Aelinsaar
Just to see if I'm still batting a perfect game here, do you describe yourself
as "Libertarian"?

~~~
refurb
That's your reply to a well thoughtout counter argument?

~~~
Aelinsaar
Your characterization of your two sentences and a link as a "Well thought out
counter-argument" aside... it was a question you've dodged, so thanks for the
answer. ;)

