
Windows 10 a failure by Microsoft's own metric - aceperry
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/07/15/microsoft_wont_hit_billion_win10_devices/
======
muraiki
I read another article that said that the failure to reach this metric was due
to the lack of sales of Win10 on phones.

When I tried a pre-Win10 Lumia in a store I actually found it very impressive,
but I heard that the Win10 mobile launch had a rocky start. It seems strange
to me that Microsoft was pushing for universal apps, and now that it's close
enough to finally happening they've given up on mobile.

Somewhat offtopic, but I wonder if performing the Win10 upgrade itself is
scary for users. For instance, on a relatively new i5 laptop the upgrade left
the screen entirely black for long periods of time. It also says things like
"your files are exactly where you left them" with a color changing background;
for me I know that Windows must still be installing, but for an average user
(like my dad) he had no clue what was going on at that point and thought that
the install had failed since it was stuck on that screen for multiple minutes.

Edit: I swear that I read the article, since the article itself mentions
mobile. I just haven't had any caffeine yet...

~~~
jasonkostempski
"Your files are exactly where you left them"

I found something very HALish about that screen. A vague somewhat reassuring
statement with an ominous tone. I mean, great, they're right where I left them
but will you grant me access them?

~~~
izzydata
The sad thing about that screen is when you login only discover windows has
uninstalled some of your software.

~~~
WayneBro
I've experienced more loss of data and programs when upgrading minor versions
of Android, iOS and OS X than I ever have upgrading to Windows 10, which is
running on no less than seven computers in my house.

My wife upgraded her laptop and the TV/Kodi computer that I built for her on
her own. She's an elementary school teacher and by no means is she a computer
professional. It wasn't scary at all. She didn't lose anything and she has a
LOT of apps on her laptop.

If she had lost something, it wouldn't have been lost for long because A) we
had backups and B) when Windows removes a program during an upgrade, it
doesn't remove all of the app data so at worst you have to run an
installer...big deal.

------
torgoguys
Yes, it will fail TO hit it's own metric (1 billion devices by mid 2018) and
thus is a "failure" _on that metric._ However, saying (as this headline does)
that Windows is a failure " _by_ Microsoft's own metric" implies it has failed
in the marketplace. Nope--it's reasonably popular (no doubt helped by the free
upgrade).

Windows 7 is still king by a long shot, but Apple, for example, would love if
MacOS/OSX's market share (all versions!) totalled as many computers as just
Windows 10--it would be an approximately 50% increase in Apple's
laptop/desktop market share. (Source is
[https://netmarketshare.com/](https://netmarketshare.com/). No direct link
available. Click on "Operating Systems" / "Desktop Share by Version" for
details.)

------
davidf18
In real dollars, the cost of Macs are extremely low. $1 in 2000 is about $1.40
now. So the cost of a $1000 13" Mac Air which is a very respectable laptop is
about $700 in 2000 dollars.

Even IBM has gone to using Macs today.
[http://www.computerworld.com/article/2998315/apple-
mac/every...](http://www.computerworld.com/article/2998315/apple-mac/every-
mac-we-buy-is-making-and-saving-ibm-money-ibm.html)

So the machines are very cheap, even to IBM they are easier to use and require
less tech support. For those that want to do some software development with
open source, very useful.

While Office 2016 Mac is not as good as Office 2016 Windows, it works fairly
well.

And if you really need the Windows 10 OS, you can invest in a Parallels
virtual machine.

Besides, for many of us, Apple has stores where we can take the computer into
a Genius Bar to get problems fixed.

In NYC, we even have a 24 hour/367 store (Fifth Avenue). There will be a
seventh store in Manhattan soon. There is one in Queens, Statin Island, and
one in Brooklyn soon.

Other cities have access as well of course.

So, except in certain important cases like gaming and certain specific
applications, or cases where the stylus and touch is really important and the
Microsoft Surface would be a best choice, a Mac is a better investment for
most.

~~~
SyneRyder
As much as I like my Macs, I don't think you can claim a Mac is cheap now. I
was in the market for a new MacBook Pro, but the machine I was looking at was
going to cost me over $4000 (Australian, but at today's exchange rates that's
still about $3200 USD). Apple really price gouge on SSD & RAM upgrades - there
is no way a 1TB SSD costs $800.

I ended up buying a fully-spec'd 2012 MBP instead (more affordable, better
keyboard & trackpad than the 2015s) - and shortly after, a friend bought an
identically spec'd HP for half the price of my new Mac. I'd love to say I'd
bought a more reliable machine, but this MBP has already been back to the
Apple Store twice for repairs in just 6 months. Frankly, it's become
embarrassing to buy Apple.

So even though I'm that guy who queued up for a day-one iPhone 4, wore Panic
Spinner t-shirts into the Apple Store & knew the staff, persuaded clients &
work to support Macs... I now recommend PCs and Windows 10 to friends instead.
I can't justify the 100% markup anymore. And since Apple stopped updating
macOS for my older Macs (a MacBook 1,1 and 3,1) I even run Windows 10 on my
old Macs - now I know I'll get security updates until 2020 on those machines,
even though Apple insists they're obsolete. (Win10 runs pretty well on them.)

~~~
jjawssd
tl;dr my friend's mac broke all macs suck

~~~
pbhjpbhj
He doesn't even mention a friend having a broken mac, I think you miss-parsed;
or maybe I did. "this" mac broke, not "his"?? Certainly you summary is wrong
as a synopsis of his comment.

~~~
SyneRyder
That's correct - by "this" Mac I meant the one I'm typing on now.

It works at the moment, but it has twice lost the startup drive & refused to
start without new replacement components from Apple - not something I expect
from brand new hardware bought direct from Apple.

~~~
davidf18
Very sorry to hear that you're having problems. Macs have had problems with
GPUs in the past in Macbook Pros (2011 version?) where Apple has ended up
replacing the entire insides (this happened recently on a friends 17" 2011).

But (knock on aluminum), I've had 4 macs since 2011 all without hardware
problems.

------
SeanDav
Ironically, Windows 10 is probably the Microsoft OS that is going to push me
full time to using Linux. Right now I use Linux for work, but home network,
and laptops (except 1 Mac) all run on Windows 7/8\. However the underhanded
tactics that Microsoft have resorted to in order to try force me to upgrade
and the fact that I lose significant (actually all) control on patching,
worries about MS spyware etc means that Windows 7/8 is the last Microsoft OS
for me.

~~~
brudgers
Windows 10 may be the Windows version that gets me to switch back to Windows
from Linux. The interface is gorgeous. I can run a Linux environment. It's got
multiple desktops.

Cannonical loves my data as much as Microsoft. Unlike Microsoft, they love
sending to Amazon for sales purposes and the search engine _du jure_ for
"personalization" and to websites to download their Ubuntu "app" things.

TANSTAAFL.

~~~
Nerdfest
Linux is not limited to Canonical/Ubuntu, and even if you do use Ubuntu, that
is opt-in (now) and only ever applied on the Unity desktop.

With Linux, there is a free lunch.

------
FussyZeus
I remember when 7 (and even Vista for a certain number of users who had a
powerful machine and the _right_ hardware) came out, there was a lot of them
saying how happy they were to upgrade from XP (and definitely Vista for
obvious reasons). Finding someone who loved 7 compared to Vista was easy, they
were everywhere.

Contrast that with 10, I think I've found maybe 2 people in my group of online
and offline friends who "like" it, not love, just like, and the rest are
varying degrees of indifference and of course there's a few people who
outright hate it.

One of my sysadmin friends is currently looking into if he can rebuild his
company laptop with 7 because he just can't stand 10.

I only bring this up because it seems like while people didn't like 8 hardly
at all, nobody really seems to love 10 either. They either shrug their
shoulders because they don't care, or they tolerate it because it's better
than nothing.

------
nimos
I think a big part of the problem is Windows 7 is so good. I have very little
incentive to switch at all. I'll probably do it sometime in the next week
because free upgrades end July 29th but only because I have Windows 10 on a
laptop and I've been happy with it. If I hadn't had that experience I wouldn't
risk it.

~~~
donny2015
Yes, Windows 7 is very good indeed, but after upgrading to Win 10 none of my
workflows changed, and my 7 year old laptop got noticeably snappier.

~~~
brudgers
That's my experience as well. Windows 10 is significantly less crufty than 7
or 8. The interface is gorgeous to boot. Not sure I'll switch from Ubuntu for
day to day, but it's possible.

------
0xcde4c3db
This says more about the prediction process than it does about Windows 10.
Overly optimistic sales projections are a dime a dozen.

~~~
tantalor
Sales? It was free. They can't give it away.

~~~
_Understated_
It's only free if you have a valid Windows 7 or 8 license that you have
already paid for so really, it's not free at all.

~~~
brudgers
Curious what sort of Windows license hasn't already been paid for.

~~~
type0
Well, I bout my workstation without it so it's not free for me. This is really
a big scam by Microsoft, for previous PC's I had to pay this Windows fee even
when it was of no use for me.

------
yoavm
Personally I find it very odd. I've been a Linux-only user for the past 13
years, and Windows 10 was the first time I actually considered trying Windows
as my main OS. I guess our metrics are different.

~~~
zerr
Similarly, but for me it was Vista. I'm still on Win7 until MS comes up with
"better 7", nothing so far...

~~~
noxToken
I plan on test driving 10 this weekend. From what I've heard (installation
tactics aside), it seems like Win10 is a better Win7. What about it doesn't
make it a better Win7?

Edit: Clarification.

~~~
plandis
My favorite part is the forced upgrades. Didn't want to reboot your computer?
WELL TOO BAD MICROSOFT KNOWS BEST.

~~~
WayneBro
They're hardly forced. I disabled automatic updates via a Group Policy
setting. Here are the instructions for the Pro version of Windows:

1\. Run `gpedit.msc`.

2\. Navigate to Computer Configuration\Administrative Templates\Windows
Components\Windows Update.

3\. Locate the “Configure Automatic Updates” setting in the right pane and
double-click it. Set it to “Enabled,” and then select your preferred setting.
For example, you can choose “Auto download and notify for install” or “Notify
for download and notify for install.” Save the change.

If you're running Windows 10 Home you can simply set your ethernet/wifi
connection as a metered connection which results in the same exact policy
being applied - you get to choose when to install updates...

------
smrtinsert
Surprising given that I've really been enjoying Windows 10. Built a recently
and I put it on it just figuring it was stable enough. I'm really liking it
and find it so pleasant and seamless I haven't even disabled UAC!

------
lanevorockz
Microsft metrics were always a bit dubious, they used to claim sales for
pirated Windows copies as well as any copies that were given away or claimed
on MSDN. Anyway, monopoly is not a healthy state for any market and honestly
in the near future the exclusivity of Apps will fade and the choice of OS
should be based on personal preference. Or how much better they are, not
because software is only built for platform X.

------
wangchow
I've been using the Lumia 650 for a couple months now and it's a solid device.
If only it was their first iteration! Also, for those used to using a
Macbook/Ipad/Iphone, consider the Surface lineup is really tablet-and-laptop
in one. I have been using a Surface Pro 3 for about 2 years now and really
swear by the device. There's nothing like it on the market. The anniversary
Win10 update is coming soon too.

Tough to say what their goals are in the mobile space though.. It's a
saturated market and people are already plugged into ecosystems so it's tough
to pull them out. The plus with Windows 10 Universal though is that for
developers, why not make it universal and get added mobile/desktop app for
free?

Hard to say where they're going.. The entire market has sort of reached a
strange place with shifts to the cloud and attempts at AI (I disable cortana
by the way because she eats battery for breakfast).

------
dingo_bat
I think this says more about Microsoft's changed mobile strategy than any
deficiencies in the OS. Earlier they were planning to keep pushing mobile and
making new devices. Now they've given up. 350 million PCs in just less than a
year is no joke.

------
arbuge
Ever since I installed it on my work laptop, it's been crashing the file
manager every few days, requiring a reboot. Sometimes more often.

I've been refraining from installing it on a bunch of other PCs since then.

~~~
Frank2312
If you have Clover installed, that may be the issue.

As soon as I uninstalled it, no more problem.

One of my friends also had Clover installed, but he had no problems.

~~~
arbuge
>> If you have Clover installed, that may be the issue.

I don't, so that's not it...

------
kirkdouglas
Microsoft's plan for Windows 10 deployment looks very optimistic. Seems that's
why they pushing users to upgrade to Windows 10 so hard.

------
Piskvorrr
Sssh! Don't tell them now, else they'll just force-install their _thing_ on
Patch Tuesday after June 29 (and claim that the "free upgrade" meant "you are
free to decide _when_").

~~~
daveguy
I'm not sure why this is getting downvoted so badly. The top comments to the
linked article are about how atrocious MS has been in force-upgrading / no
upgrade control / no-option telemetry. I think this is a primary reason MS
won't meet their goal. By all other measures and reviews it is a top notch OS.
The fact that they are using shady tactics with this OS to start vendor lockin
and to jumpstart their only-by-subscription options is why people are jumping
ship to the viable alternatives.

~~~
adventured
It's likely getting downvoted so badly because of the use of "crapware" to
describe the product - which is a negative contribution to the discussion
here.

~~~
Piskvorrr
There. Better now? Not triggering anyone?

(See this for context - IMNSHO a program which does this fully deserves its
accolades, no matter if it's pushed by the OS vendor or not:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11846198](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11846198)
)

------
jason46
Any one think they are cutting off the free upgrade at the deadline?

~~~
Noseshine
Why not? Arguments in favor of dropping the free program as promised:

\- It would be the same as before.

\- Continuing a failed strategy won't suddenly be any more successful. Why
should those who didn't upgrade until now suddenly do it? The most likely
reason will be because they _have to_ \- in which case letting them pay is the
better business strategy.

\- It sets a bad precedent for the future (from their POV), nobody would take
similar announcements seriously any more.

That said, _my_ reason for not upgrading my PC thus far is that on my
officially Windows 10 supported Dell XPS 13 9333 (from 2014) ultrabook (which
I bought with Windows 8.1) I have quite severe sound driver crash issues (the
actual Realtek driver is even worse, but with only the Microsoft High
Definition Audio Device driver I have them too, and I'm not alone), and I have
to restart explorer.exe (the window manager) occasionally because something
hangs. No chance to get anything done from Dell, even though they officially
support the upgrade. On my XPS 8500 PC - two years older - it isn't even
officially supported, and it also has a Realtek audio chip. So I'm really
reluctant to start the upgrade. I'll do it just before end of the month, but
I'll be sure to have everything backed up even if they say I will be able to
revert the installation.

------
herbst
A metrix where windows does not look like a failure has to be created first.
Not even them are able to do so.

~~~
majewsky
What about desktop market share?

~~~
herbst
If constant decline does not say failure for you i don't know ether.

Given its slow, but consistent non the less.

