

A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago - GBond
http://hoopsanalyst.com/blog/?p=487

======
bretthopper
Just some background for those not familiar with "Lin-sanity":

\- He was a great college player at Harvard but wasn't drafted.

\- He was cut by 2 NBA teams before the Knicks picked him up.

\- He was probably the 4th point guard on the Knicks depth chart.

\- The Knicks have been terrible this year and are currently without their 2
best players (Amare Stoudamire and Carmello Anthony)

\- The Knicks have now won 4 straight games with Jeremy Lin playing big
minutes (including 3 starts).

\- The 89 points he scored in his first three starts (including Friday) got
him a historical distinction. They are the most scored by an NBA player in his
first three starts since the NBA-ABA merger 1976-77.

\- Everyone loves him.

~~~
wisty
That's insane. It's been suggested he was passed over because he's of Chinese
decent. You'd think the teams would be climbing over themselves to get a good
player with a Chinese name, because that's a way to get tens (or hundreds) of
millions of Chinese fans.

He's not the next Yao (since he's American born, for starters), but he'd still
be worth a lot purely for the fans he'd draw.

While "hundreds of millions" is often just hyperbolic thinking, Chinese are
keener on the NBA than Americans. Unless the world cup (soccer) or Olympics is
on, it's the only spectator sport worth speaking of. And Chinese _love_ brand-
name goods, and sports memorabilia, though many are forged.

Plus, he's a good player.

~~~
ssharp
I highly doubt any team passed over him because of his ethnicity. That's
insanely counter-productive and something that doesn't happen in modern
sports, especially the NBA. Yao Ming was a #1 draft pick. The NBA knows it's
strong position in China.

~~~
jberryman
I don't know. That one Chinese player was highly sought after in the last
decade in the NBA does not convince me that unconscious racial bias hasn't
played a role here, not that I think malice has either.

It seems obvious that Lin's Chinese descent is at least still a novelty in the
NBA

~~~
ssharp
I still have a very hard time chalking it up to racial bias, whether conscious
or unconscious.

If the NBA is lacking in Chinese players, I'd amount it to:

1\. Chinese players' talents aren't good enough, or they simply don't fit into
the NBA style of play

2\. NBA teams are not good at transcribing their play to the NBA level

Lin is an American, however, and has been playing US-style basketball his
whole life.

Lin's had a streak of statistically good games, and a much larger sample of
below average play off the bench. I haven't watched his games and I don't know
how good he is on defense, or how he looks in operating an offense. But even
if he turns out to be a really great NBA player, it's not like he was the
first professional athlete to be overlooked/underrated. John Starks, former
Knick, who played a big role in the Knicks' success in the 90's was undrafted,
as was Ben Wallace, a premier defender for the championship Pistons in the
2000's.

The NFL also has a lot of once underrated talent. The Super Bowl losing
Patriots have future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady, who has been an elite
quarterback for about a decade now was the 199th player picked in his draft
class. And one of his prime targets the past few years has been undrafted Wes
Welker. Kurt Warner was undrafted, sign as a free agent, cut during the
preseason and had to play several years in the Arena League before becoming a
Super Bowl MVP and superstar quarterback.

~~~
Volpe
What's the difference between "US-style" basketball and "other" style? (i.e
"chinese-style"?)

Doesn't everyone play the same game/style?

~~~
gmichnikov
No. See <http://members.shaw.ca/jazzace/ace/hoop/rulediff.html> for a variety
of rule differences. See [http://www.raptorsforum.com/f/f6/differences-
between-nba-eur...](http://www.raptorsforum.com/f/f6/differences-between-nba-
europe-10180.html) for some more thoughts.

~~~
Volpe
Specifically "chinese-style"... Chinese are mad about NBA, do they really play
different rules?

~~~
ssharp
Maybe U.S.-style wasn't the correct term, but since the NBA is regarded as the
top basketball league in the country, it's what most people look up to.

The NBA tends to run a very isolation-oriented offense. This means that a
point guard usually brings the ball to half-court, and if the PG is the main
iso guy, he keeps the ball, or he dumps the ball to the main iso guy. The rest
of the offense then spreads out so that iso guy is 1-on-1 with the defender.
He'll usually play 1-on-1 (taking a shot or driving to the basket if he can)
until there is 10 or so seconds left, and then the offense will start really
moving.

Being from Cleveland, we saw this in the extreme when Lebron James played for
the Cavs. We nicknamed this the "Lebronfense", because the entire offense
(especially in the playoffs) consisted of Lebron holding the ball for 15
seconds and then making a move. This generally doesn't happen as much in other
countries and leagues as it does in the NBA. Generally, guards and SF's who
score a lot in the NBA are iso-specialists.

I'm not well versed enough in basketball strategy, so I'm not sure why this
happens. It likely has to do with maximizing a superstar's athletic ability
and overall impact on the game, but that's just a guess.

------
michael_dorfman
Wouldn't it be more noteworthy if we _weren't_ able to find one analyst who
predicted Lin? With the number of amateur analysts, and the number of players,
you'd think that its likely there's a web page somewhere plugging _every_
prospect.

~~~
corin_
Reminds me of that classic scam of sending out sports (or anything else)
predictions to a huge mailing list, and basically AB testing in such a way
that after a little time there are at least x% who think your success rate is
incredible.

~~~
jimmybot
How is this anywhere the same?

In a scam, you don't have any way of making any future correct predictions--
it's just random. This analyst has a reasoned system that can be tested
against past players and against future prospects. Sure, there's going to be
_someone_ out there that picks Jeremy Lin. But the trick is, can you correctly
identify players who are already known to be good based on their college
stats, make the right call on Jeremy Lin, and go forward and continue to make
good calls on draft prospects?

I'm not saying this sabermetrician generally makes good calls; I haven't
looked. But dismissing his call as the result of a series of Bernoulli trials
is completely missing the point.

~~~
Retric
His point is the number of people making predictions is high enough that it
raises the bar for people to stand out from the pack. Basically run an ANOVA
test on 10 groups vs 10,000 groups and it takes a larger divination to stand
out from the pack.

PS: It does not matter if there is a system behind their predictions, what
matters is how well their predictions hold up over time. Otherwise your just:
<http://xkcd.com/904/>

~~~
mrobataille
That's my favorite xkcd - so simple, and true.

Ironic side note - I tried to use it as my ESPN.com forum account avatar, and
was denied.

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zheng
What surprises me most about this story isn't that it happened, but that
people still are surprised it works. A data-driven approach will always be
better than picking people by how good they "look", etc. Human scouts are
biased, make mistakes, and miss plays. Statistics don't lie. The one catch is
of course how you analyze those statistics makes all the difference.

~~~
mousa
NBA media and fans are much much more resistant to empirical stuff than
baseball. I think it's because the appeal of the game is more about emotions
and hype than baseball. There's this feeling that things can't be captured in
the numbers, but what they use instead is so inferior for judging players. I
mean the Knicks acquired Carmelo Anthony at the cost of all the efficient
players on the team. All of the stats guys were very skeptical the media
blared on and on about how they would be contenders and they were terrible
until this undrafted rookie came along.

Another example, what I've found interesting reading some of the NBA
statisticians blogs is this argument about "clutch". Most fans and media
insist that Kobe Bryant, a player who shoots a lot of shots at the end of
games and makes spectacular shots sometimes is the best closer in the game.
Meanwhile almost all statistical evidence points to Chris Paul, a player who
runs boring routine plays down the stretch, as by far the best closer in the
league in terms of actually winning close games.

Until the NBA stats can predict winners like baseball, the public will always
go by the "look." The teams themselves however, are almost all hiring
statisticians now.

~~~
brildum
Baseball is easier to predict from statistics when compared to most other
sports. Most plays in baseball occur in isolation (relatively).

For example: pitcher vs. batter -- each pitch is essentially a new, repeatable
experiment.

In basketball, I would guess that there are very few repeatable experiments.
(Different players, strategies, locations, etc). It is a much more fluid game
and therefore determining an indicator of success is much more difficult.

~~~
darksaga
Agreed. Also keep in mind baseball probably keeps track of more stats than any
other sport, making it easier to spot potential.

I once read an interview with a Major League scout who said he relied heavily
on the numbers. He basically said, "We can get any stats, on any of these
guys, at any minute, and find out exactly where they are, and if they have the
numbers for the big leagues."

Talk about pressure. . it was an eye opener.

------
noelwelsh
I love Jeremy Lin as a player and I really hope he succeeds. However, it must
be said: Four games does not a statistically significant sample make. Read the
NBA Playbook breakdown of his game:

<http://nbaplaybook.com/2012/02/08/a-look-at-jeremy-lin/>

In summary, he isn't good going left or shooting from distance. So far he
hasn't played an elite defensive team. The true test will come if he can
sustain his performance over the season and against good defence. Let's hope
he does it!

~~~
steve8918
So what if he hasn't played against an elite defensive team. That is
irrelevant to determine whether or not he will succeed. How many players would
do well against an elite defense team? Probably not a lot, otherwise they
wouldn't be an elite defensive team.

No one is saying that he's going to be another Stockton, Nash, Wade (although
Magic Johnson did say that Lin reminded him of Stockton and Nash), and he
doesn't need to be in order to succeed. If he can keep the caliber of his game
up to NBA standards, he can accomplish what he wanted, which is to play in the
NBA, and that's all that matters. His performance over the past 4 games is
saying pretty strongly that he can play at this level.

Remember, he just played against over 10% of the league already and has been
the best player on the court. If the Knicks elite players can get their act
together, then Lin only needs to contribute positively in order to maintain a
strong career.

~~~
noelwelsh
You make some good points. Lin has probably already done enough to have a
decent NBA career and retire with millions in the bank. However the hype
surrounding Lin is that's he more than that. The main point I wanted to make
is that four games is not enough data to make that conclusion.

He's certainly lucky to play for D'Antoni, who is just about the only coach in
the NBA who'd let a point guard freelance like Lin has. He's also lucky that
the Knicks' star players are out so he doesn't have the pressure to just pass
them the rock, which wouldn't showcase his skills. It will be interesting to
see how Lin plays with Amare and especially Carmelo. We know from Phoenix that
Amare is perfectly happy running the pick-and-roll with a good point guard.
'Melo prefers to handle the ball more, so there could be conflict there.

------
bilbo0s
Hmm...

I looked into his stats because I don't pay much attention to the Knicks.

At any rate I think Jeremy Lin is definitely going to have a good deal of
trouble succeeding long term. There are a number of concerns there, but by far
the biggest is TOs. In each game he's played, he has had the most TOs of any
player. You can coach that away but one of two things will happen, his FGs
will go up and his ASSTs will go down, or his ASSTs will go up and his FGs
will go down. What you want, for a lot of reasons that most of you probably
already know, is for the latter to happen. What seems to be happening is the
former. There is a reason it is called a Point Guard. That needs to be fixed
or other coaches will definitely take advantage of it when it counts.

You say, "well no problem...when Stoudemire and Anthony get back the problem
will ameliorate." It may. I don't know. I would have to revisit his stats at
that time. If I had to bet, I would bet that it will get better. But other
young PGs struggle with the same issue...to the detriment of their teams in my
opinion.

I guess what I am saying is that success in basketball, as measured in rings,
requires stats optimized for balance and flexibility rather than strength.
When Jason Williams finally got to Miami he was a more balanced PG. IIRC,
during the 2006 finals he averaged 12 points and 7 ASSTs. Critically, at that
point in his career TOs were under control. Jason Williams peaked at,
somewhere around 3.5 a game. Jeremy Lin is averaging twice that at least. Not
good. And consider, Jason Williams could make some of that up on the back end
with steals. Not so much with Jeremy.

So I can see why a lot of statisticians would look at Jeremy Lin and
say,"...well with my personnel...I'll have to pass on this guy." Of course if
we scour the web we will find one guy who rated him highly, that is the nature
of the beast. But there are a lot of good reasons that a lot of good scouts
did not rate him highly. And most strategists probably see a lot of those
reasons every time he plays.

All that said, Jason Williams, after initially playing a lot like Jeremy,
achieved a REALLY good ASST/TO rating. If it wasn't THE highest...it was
close. But again, that's the 12 points 7 ASSTs Jason Williams, which is what
you want in a PG if you want to get to a ring.

~~~
jschmitz28
In response to the turnovers, I want to mention that there are a couple
reasons for that.

The first is that he's playing PG and has to handle the ball a lot more than
anyone else on the team right now. Combined with his minutes, that's generally
going to give you more TO's just because of the amount of time with the ball
and the probability of a player of his skill level losing it (although this
point doesn't account for other PG's who average way fewer TO's).

Second, he's just started to play a ridiculous amount of minutes over the past
week and hasn't had enough time to refine himself yet. Did you watch the first
couple weeks of games this season? Because of the lockout this year, there
were almost no preseason games and it showed. Turnover rates were extremely
high for pretty much every team, so I'm inclined to think that Lin can get his
turnovers down throughout the rest of the season assuming they keep playing
him.

My last point is a pretty obvious one, but he's still young. A few more years
of experience and I expect to see turnovers go down. I watched his 38 point
game last night, and while he played pretty amazing, he did have moments where
he looked confused and flustered when running the offense.

~~~
dmragone
Aren't we also talking about a tiny sample size with the Knicks? And one of
those games I believe he had 8 turnovers. That could easily be skewing these
early numbers.

Is there any evidence of turnover concern from his time at Harvard?

~~~
ssharp
Yes - way too small of a sample and given that, some of the hype in this topic
is completely unwarranted. Comparing his PER to Lebron? Let's see him hold a
PER close to 30 for a full season, or over multiple seasons.

I hope he continues to do well, but some of the comparisons that are being
made are without merit.

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fluorescentLAMP
I'm involved in the startup scene for soccer "moneyball" metric development.
If anyone has any interest, contact me.

~~~
marklabedz
Definitely interested. Mind putting your contact info in your profile?

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minouye
How is he calculating RSB40? I'm guessing its some sort of weighted average of
rebounds, steals, and blocks but I can't find a solid definition.

~~~
jcliff85
(Rebounds + Steals + Blocks) / (40 mins)

~~~
jimmybot
I know what you mean, but technically, it's: (Rebounds + Steals + Blocks) *
(40 mins) / (minutes played)

~~~
GigabyteCoin
I think he meant that more as an english statement than a mathematical one. It
is indeed the number of rebounds, steals and blocks PER 40 minute interval.

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achompas
I'm learning/reviewing MCMC methods now for work and...how about a MCMC
algorithm that takes in basketball box scores and attempts to generate
estimates of each player's ability?

You'd probably have to deal with too many parameters (one for each player in
the league)...or maybe not?

Pardon the vagueness, I'm only suggesting this as a theoretical exercise.

EDIT: well, that didn't take long. [http://www-
stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~zhangk/2010%20Scoring%20a...](http://www-
stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~zhangk/2010%20Scoring%20and%20Shooting%20Abilities%20of%20NBA%20Players.pdf)

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ecounysis
How many false positives has this statistician had over their career?

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mathattack
The original post suggests he will be a lottery pick, perhaps first overall.
Whoops. The writer caught his being undervalued but overestimated the math
skills of basketball GMs.

It's hard to avoid the Linsanity now.

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milhous
It's spelled 'statistician'.

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ivanzhao
Noticed the article was written a year ago (May 13, 2010), and Lin went
undrafted that year.

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stevengg
here is a good article about how players leverage stats to force the other
team into low percentage shots and plays
[http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html?...](http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html?pagewanted=all)

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BeeLee
Great find, GBond. I found it an interesting read. Thanks!

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carguy1983
HN-related factoid: Jeremy Lin was born in southern CA, grew up in Palo Alto
and both of his parents are immigrant engineers.

