
Ubuntu Edge will miss $32M crowdfunding target - kshatrea
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/aug/02/ubuntu-edge-crowdfunding-prediction-miss
======
mtgx
Mistake #1: Pricing it over $600 unlocked. I know they feel very strongly
about the 128 GB of storage, but if doing that meant pricing it over what
seemed like the sweet spot of $600, then it was killer mistake.

Mistake #2: Not making it dead clear that they can return your money if for
whatever reason the phone doesn't get built or you don't like it. This is not
typical of such crowdfunding campaigns, and everyone assumed they could be
"risking their money" (in this case, a lot of money).

I bet a lot of people are now seeing that it probably won't reach the goal
(also these articles rubbing it in their faces aren't helping...) so even if
they considered it, now they won't bother because it looks like a dead project
that won't happen anyway - game theory and all.

~~~
wodenokoto
The iPhone is priced at over 600usd unlocked. From 720usd in Hong Kong, which
match US pricing very closely ( can't find it on apple's us store unlocked)

I don't think it's naive to price a high end phone above what is essentially
the most mainstream phone available. Which they didn't considering theirs have
128gb memory.

~~~
grey-area
The iPhone is 849 USD unlocked for the 64GB model. Scroll down on this page
after selecting a model:

[http://store.apple.com/us/buy/home/shop_iphone/family/iphone...](http://store.apple.com/us/buy/home/shop_iphone/family/iphone5)

------
WestCoastJustin
Here is the link to their crowdfunding page
[http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/ubuntu-
edge](http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/ubuntu-edge) for anyone interested.

------
6d0debc071
Computer hardware has a low replacement rate. And this:

4Gb of RAM and 128Gb of storage.

Is simultaneously too much for a phone and around the low end for any computer
released in at least the last half decade.

They've gone the wrong way, it seems to me. What was impressive was the fact
that you could move your user environment around in your pocket. They chose to
make the hardware a small computer to accomplish that though. People already
_have_ computers at their workplace already plugged in, they've either got
laptops or desktops at their homes.

You're not just asking them to get another phone, you're asking them to
replace their computers.

They've decided to compete in both the markets at once - and that only works
if you can leverage needs that overlap at the same time in both markets that
they don't natively address. Otherwise, you just end up crippling your ability
to optimise for both markets as individuals and the natives in those areas eat
you alive.

A saturated marketplace where people rarely replace their hardware and where
your features aren't impressive, I suspect - might be wrong, does not have
those features.

~~~
pestaa
One could also argue they are discovering a niche (developers who need to get
on the go really fast, really often), so they're entering a tiny fraction of
one market only. I guess it all comes down to perspective.

~~~
rsynnott
I'm not sure if this is a real niche. For the device to be any use to a
developer, you'd really need an external monitor and keyboard. So you're
looking at a developer who for some reason can bring a phone places, cannot
bring a Macbook Air or something places, and has monitors and keyboards
available everywhere they bring the phone. Does this actually fit anyone's
situation?

~~~
namlem
Maybe it'll become useful in the future with thin, flexible screens. You could
carry your 21" monitor in your backpack and your computer in your pocket.

~~~
jiggy2011
At that point you may as well just take a laptop. The only real advantage I
can see might be cost saving, but this is probably fairly negligible.

------
MarcScott
I get the impression (I am just speculating) that Canonical is running an
enormous focus group. Whether they hit 32m or just 16m, they have evidence for
the device manufacturers that there is a demand for a convergent and powerful
phone running an open OS.

~~~
eterm
Surely missing the target would demonstrate a lack of demand? It's pretty hard
to spin "We couldn't even get 30,000 contributers" asz success. Especially
given the strong existing brand, the news coverage, etc.

~~~
MarcScott
Again, I'm speculating but; hitting 16m at around 800 a phone equates to
20,000 phones. That's 20k potential sales of a phone that doesn't exist, using
an OS that's still in development, to a tiny subset of individuals willing to
engage in crowd sourcing. That's pretty impressive if you ask me. Imagine how
well a carrier-subsidised version would do?

~~~
skaevola
20k is nothing. Smartphone manufacturers will laugh at you for fewer than
hundreds of thousands. To get a good deal they want to see millions.

~~~
incision
Did you miss this part?

 _> "That's 20k potential sales of a phone that doesn't exist, using an OS
that's still in development, to a tiny subset of individuals willing to engage
in crowd sourcing."_

I think it's pretty clear what the parent means to say there. That
demonstrating that much demand after accounting for multiple, large limiting
factors could extrapolate to much larger numbers with those factors removed.

Cards Against Humanity collected $15.5K from 750 people via Kickstarter and
went on to make an estimated $12M with wide availability [0].

The card makers of the world likely would have laughed at a game with 750
sales, but today I'm sure they'd all love to hold down the top 4 best-seller
spots on Amazon [1].

Yes, phones and card games aren't a direct comparison, but the parent had a
good point and focusing on one number is awfully myopic.

0: [http://www.chicagogrid.com/enterprise/cards-against-
humanity...](http://www.chicagogrid.com/enterprise/cards-against-humanity-
game-money/)

1: [http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/toys-and-
games/16623901...](http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/toys-and-
games/166239011/ref=pd_zg_hrsr_t_1_3_last)

------
seferphier
In my mind, they failed to miss their crowdfunding target because of a poorly
coordinated campaign.

1) lack of tiers - t shirts came way too late. They should have added phone
docks and exclusive first preview to their convergence.

2) pricing - the sweet spot for the pricing was about 650. they priced the
product way too high

~~~
grey-area
_the sweet spot for the pricing was about 650. they priced the product way too
high_

Price versus demand is not the only constraint here.

It is an incredibly ambitious piece of hardware, so obviously more expensive
to produce than say the iphone 5. The iPhone 5 costs $849 for the 64GB model.
That's half the memory, and more expensive than the Ubuntu edge even at these
higher price tiers. Unfortunately most people will probably compare the
subsidised price from a carrier instead, or cheaper hardware.

Just because they could sell more doesn't mean it would initially be cheaper
for them - there might be constraints imposed by their choice of supplier, who
can only handle a certain volume of a new experimental device for the
deadline. There are a lot of setup costs involved, and the greater the volume
they sell, the greater the risk - many kickstarter projects have run into this
issue - what is easy to do for a run of 10,000 just won't work for a run of
1,000,000, and if they had problems in their first batch, it could lead to
serious damage to their brand if they have a huge userbase angry and waiting
for hardware. So plenty of reasons for wanting to constrain supply.

So from Ubuntu's point of view, perhaps keeping the production run small was a
requirement - that would explain the higher price tiers, because that imposes
a higher average cost on them per device. They're probably making a loss on a
$600 sale given this is a new device and the specs. Without knowing the demand
curve in advance it must be quite hard to judge, but if nothing else I guess
this campaign will give them a very good idea of the demand curve for a phone
like this, so they will at least get that out of it if it fails.

~~~
seferphier
I agree with your points. I think to succeed they need a higher kickstarter
goal to have the economies of scales.

honestly, i foresaw that ubuntu edge would fail when they introduced the new
price tiers. If all the discounted price tiers would have sold out it would
have generated a few extra million. Once those are sold out - the people would
not buy a $825 phone and the campaign would be stuck

I would relaunch the campaign after knowing the elasticity of the curve.

------
Alterlife
Canoical has made the same mistakes Microsoft did by branding their phone and
tablet OS "Ubuntu"... It hurt Ubuntu desktop in the process with Unity.

Convergence might be the future, but the breakpoints in usability and public
imagination just haven't been hit yet.

I think Android and iOS have a better opportunity to scale up and meet desktop
needs without alienating users than Windows explorer, Gnome 2.0 or KDE have to
scale down and take over mobile while keeping true to their core UI patterns.

~~~
georgemcbay
I don't agree that either the Windows or Ubuntu names are really a negative
for the phone brands offered by each. I do think the phone OS market is a
tough nut to crack given the extremely wide penetration of iOS and Android,
but that persists regardless of OS name. You could call Windows Phone anything
you want and it still has all of the same problems with lack of apps, lack of
widespread handset maker support, etc, same with Ubuntu Mobile.

I'm personally still excited about the idea of Ubuntu Mobile, but I never had
an interest in the Edge because I just don't think the crowdfunding model
works in the phone space. I have less than zero interest in paying $830 (or
even the early $625 price) and receiving a phone a year from now that has very
vaguely defined specs at the time I'm paying for it.

But when Ubuntu Mobile is more fully baked I'll give it a lengthy try out as
my "daily driver" on my existing Nexus 4 (or whatever I may have after the N4
that is also supported, depending upon time frame).

~~~
Alterlife
I don't think that the desktop brand is a negative for the phone.

They made compromises to the desktop UI to meet mobile demands in the name of
'convergence' \-- justifying the use of the same brand... but as a result, UI
experience has suffered on both form factors.

~~~
georgemcbay
Ah, yes, I misunderstood the point you were making, sorry.

I would agree that the compromises they made for their desktop versions are a
negative, at least in the way they did them.

They could support both models fairly well (eg. in Microsoft's case with a few
tweaks to bring back the proper start-menu and an option to just not see the
metro screen for desktop users who really don't want it), but both seem to
have adopted the modern "Apple" style of making things as simple as possible
with no option for advanced usages, which I think is a mistake lots of
companies (including Google) are making these days.

The value to me of old Google products, old Microsoft products, and older
Ubuntu (which lives on in other Linux distros) was precisely that they _weren
't_ Apple-esque in terms of dictating to me how I'm supposed to use it for the
sake of ultra simplicity. Now that they are attempting to be Apple-esque they
are losing the hearts and minds of people like me, and not gaining much with
the other group (AFAICT), because no matter how bad they try to be Apple,
Apple is still a much better Apple than they are.

------
rogerbinns
HN discussion from two days about the report directly, not an interpretation
via the Guardian. The Guardian does have some updated data.
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6132686](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6132686)

There are some good comments about the rewards like "the early adopter bonus
shouldn't have been a cheaper phone it should have been a more expensive but
exclusive colourway"

~~~
phreeza
This analysis is a lot better than the one linked to in that thread.

------
scdoshi
I guess it doesn't really matter. It's win-win either ways.

If it gets funded, they get to make a showcase device.

If it doesn't, they still get better publicity than they could have bought,
and Canonical gets to be the company that tries new and interesting things.

------
t0
I don't think they ever planned on hitting $32m. This was simply a way to
gather information and see just how much interest there really is.

~~~
zombio
Mark Shuttleworth said in his Reddit AMA that if the project was not
successfully funded he would not close the gap. Are you suggesting he would
let the project die, only to reintroduce it later?

[http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/1j166z/hi_im_mark_shut...](http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/1j166z/hi_im_mark_shuttleworth_founder_of_ubuntu/cba2j53)

~~~
glesica
I don't think anyone is suggesting that he would let it fail and then
reintroduce it later. From what Canonical has said, if it fails, it fails.
They specifically say in the video that they _are not_ getting into the
hardware business. This is a one-time thing. This is sort of Canonical's
"Nexus" device, it isn't their primary strategy, just a demo.

~~~
loceng
One-time thing after putting all of the effort into manufacturing makes zero
sense, and more likely a marketing strategy.

------
badclient
Pretty sure they are coordinating with corporates behind the scenes and have
few million lined up in commitments that will turn into actual $ as we get
closer. That in itself makes this campaign unpredidented - I don't recall
another campaign with a $80,000 contribution level.

IMO they should be able to get 100 of the Fortune 500 companies to fork over
$80,0000 for an exclusive access to the new shiney thing in mobile.

Heck Marissa Mayer alone may just reimburse every Yahoo employee who decides
to get one going by her thirst for mobile ... and pr.

~~~
dan1234
> IMO they should be able to get 100 of the Fortune 500 companies to fork over
> $80,0000 for an exclusive access to the new shiney thing in mobile.

There are only 50 of those $80k bundles available. (Also, only 50 of the $10k)

> Heck Marissa Mayer alone may just reimburse every Yahoo employee who decides
> to get one going by her thirst for mobile ... and pr.

Why? What's in this for Yahoo?

------
Kequc
Lets see I can buy an Android phone for $300 that runs an operating system
that is state of the art and one of the world's largest tech giants is
currently spending a billion dollars developing. Or I can buy a $800 phone for
neckbeards that runs Ubuntu, an operating system that hasn't made headway in
approximately a decade.

~~~
MarcScott
"an operating system that hasn't made headway in approximately a decade."

I don't think Ubuntu existed a decade ago. So I think that from nothing to
being one of (if not the most) popular Linux distros on desktops can probably
be considered headway.

"I can buy an Android phone for $300"

Yes you can. It is unlikely to have 4Gb of RAM and 128Gb of storage though.

"neckbeards"

You got me. I'm going to go and shave.

~~~
gwilkes
Approximately a decade is close enough, it will be 9 years this October.

------
throwawayyyz
$32m seems like too much money to be crowdfunding at this point in time. Few
years too early.

~~~
venomsnake
Not at all for that kind of project - the 600 and 625$ sold like cupcakes -
the problem is they overshot the price of the device. 600$ seems about right.

~~~
throwawayyyz
I'm talking more about the indiegogo platform and others like it - there
aren't enough people on it to be raising $32m in a short period of time.

------
1O0101ll100O
The price is simply too high for something that seems still too half-baked.

I know that what is 'promised' for 600-800 dollars is great but they should
have proposed this phone with more solid specs. An actual demo phone would
have been nice to see. I also think it would help to have more of an idea of
how powerful the not-yet-named processor that I'd get next year will perform
versus a trend of the Edge's current competition's processor power growth.

Finally, to me, it seems easier to add the ability to make phone calls to my
favorite laptop/netbook/tablet than it would be to constrict my computer usage
capabilities to an smartphone on steriods performance level.

------
northwest
_" Ubuntu Edge will miss $32M crowdfunding target"_

The interesting underlying question:

Does creating a data-based model about the future, predicting the future and
publicly circulating this prediction invalidate the model itself (and thus the
prediction) or not?

~~~
spyder
Now that we know that it will not succeed we all can pledge to show our
support without paying. Oh wait... :)

------
zombio
Given the nature of this campaign the boost at the end will probably be
larger. There will be a lot of hype when the final day comes and everyone will
want to get their phones before it closes.

~~~
ceejayoz
There's not going to be hype if they're ten or twenty million dollars from the
goal on the last day.

------
kushagrawal
If they don't hit the $32m, I'm pretty sure they have some deals with telecom
giants lined up. This was probably an attempt to keep the ball in their own
court

~~~
DannyBee
Which will fail if they can't convince a telecom they will sell 45k devices
.....

------
ansible
I sort of agree with some of the ideas behind this product, but I would have
gone in a different direction.

The critical thing I want is to maintain my working context wherever I go.
Browser tabs, open documents, and so on. I'm not necessarily going to be doing
the same tasks when I'm out and about than when I'm at a desk.

I definitely don't want to be limited in terms of processing power and RAM to
what I can carry around in my pocket.

------
AndrewDucker
I am not convinced that crowdfunding suits high cost items.

If there were Edge phones on the market in six months time, when my phone runs
out of contract, I'd be interested.

But I do not have $700 completely spare to buy a phone that I will not get my
hands on until then.

~~~
smithzvk
Crowd funding, at its core, is a pay first system. This means that it is also
in some way speculative. You cannot price your device above what people are
willing to live without if the project fails spectacularly (or simply fails to
deliver on what they really wanted).

To be fair, if Ubuntu Edge is truly the F1 of phones, then it should be
marketed to people that don't bat an eye at spending $830 on a device they
have never held and have little guarantee that it will actually be suitable
for their needs. I just think that the intersection of those people and Ubuntu
users is significantly smaller than Canonical thought it was.

------
Mikeb85
While they are on pace to miss their target, it's not a foregone conclusion.
Interest will likely pick up once again as it nears its deadline...

Anyhow, I'm happy as long as it's installable on phones that are already
available...

------
davidgerard
It may have been a bad idea to have spent the past few years alienating their
old PC userbase.

------
charlesray
I don't know why anyone would want to use an Ubuntu smartphone, excluding the
obvious free software implications. It's guaranteed to be worse than virtually
everything else on the market. And why would Canonical even want to get into
this business. You're competing against Apple, Google, Microsoft and
Blackberry. They cannot win.

~~~
mikegioia
What a naive, ignorant comment.

> I don't know why anyone would want to use an Ubuntu smartphone, excluding
> the obvious free software implications.

So... you do know why.

> It's guaranteed to be worse than virtually everything else on the market.

This is a personal guess you made.

> And why would Canonical even want to get into this business. You're
> competing against Apple, Google, Microsoft and Blackberry. They cannot win.

This is what I don't get from the HN community: you want to have your cake and
eat it too. How many comments and posts over the last few weeks have been all
about the NSA snooping on your data with these big corps handing everything
over? Yet for some reason, you ONLY want Apple/Google/MS/BB to run the phone
market!

They cannot win if the world was full of people who thought and acted like
you, but I'd put my money that it isn't and that organizations like Canonical
can (and should) compete against big tech companies.

~~~
charlesray
>So... you do know why.

Oh shit, did I accidentally click on Reddit?

>How many comments and posts over the last few weeks have been all about the
NSA snooping on your data with these big corps handing everything over?

I don't know, I haven't written any of those comments.

>They cannot win if the world was full of people who thought and acted like
you, but I'd put my money that it isn't and that organizations like Canonical
can (and should) compete against big tech companies.

They can't win if the phone market is in any way based on merit. Canonical's
only hope lies in the massive success of a truly awful phone like the Galaxy S
series.

------
tuananh
They will def. miss the target. I read on Kickstart or somewhere. If a project
fails to meet 30% of the target on first day (or so), project will most def
fail.

------
snitko
They should buy bitcoins on some money they raised: it will surely spark a new
spike in price, but, hopefully, because they initiated it, they can later
profit from people who follow the trend by buying and raising the price even
more. That way, they can maybe reach $32m target and possibly even more.

~~~
TylerE
People like you are why I have a very hard time taking bitcoin seriously.

~~~
snitko
Why? Are you saying that speculating on Bitcoin somehow alters the core
properties of the technology?

