
IMF predicts slowest global economic growth since 2008 financial crisis - hhs
https://www.axios.com/imf-global-economic-growth-great-recession-financial-crisis-8ce86d7e-698a-4947-bddb-100f8548cf22.html
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acd
I am proposing that the newly printed money from central banks causes
deflation not inflation. Newly printed money flows to automation which lowers
consumer prices. Traditional central banks say that newly created money goes
to wage inflation but that is not fully true. Further we have globalization
which again lowers consumer prices and newly created local money by central
banks does not effect foreign wages.

"Under this policy approach the target is to keep inflation, under a
particular definition such as the Consumer Price Index, within a desired
range.

The inflation target is achieved through periodic adjustments to the central
bank interest rate target. The interest rate used is generally the overnight
rate at which banks lend to each other overnight for cash flow purposes.
Depending on the country this particular interest rate might be called the
cash rate or something similar." source:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_policy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_policy)

\- It is just wrong to think that you can control consumer price index on a
globalized market.

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notfromhere
Consumer prices aren't really going down, at least on things people care about
(food, housing, or education).

At least in the U.S., it seems like the consumer classes are pretty tapped out
in terms of consumption, and wages are stagnant so new consumption growth is
elusive. With the income inequality that the U.S. is current experience, there
just aren't enough consumers with resources that can keep spending
indefinitely.

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malandrew
I would imagine that consumer prices going down for everything but local,
supply constrained goods like housing, education and healthcare, is leaving
people with more disposable income to spend on local, supply constrained
goods, thereby making them more expensive.

~~~
notfromhere
From a micro perspective, the cost of consumer goods seems to be steady but
the cost of housing, education, and healthcare is increasing faster than
inflation.

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onlyrealcuzzo
Is _growth_ adjusted for inflation here? I.E. is it _real growth_?

A 0.8% increase does not keep up with inflation, so that would already be a
decline in real terms.

It seems like it does. The EU, US, and China are like 70% of global GDP. And
if they're growing at 1.2%, 2.4%, and 6.1% respectively, I don't know how
global growth could be only 0.8%. The rest of the world would need to be deep
in the red.

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tmn
I think you're posting a good question. I'm also curious. But inflation isn't
fixed. How can you conclude that is not keeping up with inflation.

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onlyrealcuzzo
I don't disagree with you, but I think Central Banks would.

It's basically their job to keep inflation steady.

On one hand, we can criticize them for not doing a good job. On the other
hand, if you compare the volatility of inflation vs equities vs house prices
vs just about anything -- they're doing pretty good.

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kristianp
I read recently that QE has disrupted capitalism's process of creative
destruction by keeping alive companies that would have died otherwise[1].
These low-growth zombie companies drag on the economy.

[1]. [https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/qe-would-kill-finance-
and...](https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/qe-would-kill-finance-and-
capitalism-mckibbin-warns-20191008-p52yov)

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jacquesm
Surprised it took this long given the way the US economy is being yanked left
and right on a moment's notice. Just think about how much money you could make
if you could affect the DJIA with a tweet.

~~~
ceejayoz
I wonder if it's legal for Twitter to make market moves prior to pushing out a
Trump tweet. Single-signal high frequency trading, basically.

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semi-extrinsic
Pretty sure the answer is no. US insider trading law is very much concerned
not just with whether you traded on material nonpublic information, but also
on whether your trading based on this information was a breach of trust
between you and the person giving you the information.

As far as I understand, overhearing a stranger discussing a deal at the local
Starbucks and trading on that, is perfectly legal. But overhearing your wife
discuss a deal and trading on that is illegal, as it is a breach of trust.

Edit: I managed to find the article I remember reading on this. Turns out it
was Matt Levine in Dec. 2018. To quote him:

> Famously, in American insider trading law, it’s legal to trade on inside
> information that you randomly overhear in a train station.

[https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-03/inside...](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-03/insider-
trading-in-the-potato-trade)

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opportune
Is a stranger talking on the phone in Starbucks really public information?

If so, I would start a SAAS that just puts a microphone in every Starbucks and
high end restaurant in ritzy corporate areas like Bellevue, Palo Alto,
Manhattan and sell that data to some quant fund. That signal could be worth
billions per year

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AznHisoka
If you start that, let me know. I'll then head to my local Nobu with a friend,
and pretend I'm from Adobe discussing an imminent deal to buy Docusign, while
holding Docusign shares :)

~~~
opportune
I take no responsibility for model drift and filtering adversarial data is the
responsibility of the consumer :)

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IanDrake
I'll take 2.4% growth all day long.

The title is misleading. I don't want incredible growth, I want sustainable
growth.

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seamyb88
Group of rich dudes tells world the poor are in for a rough time.

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anm89
Group of rich dudes forecast the weather...

How dare they try to model a thing which is not themselves!

