
 Econophysicist Accurately Forecasts Gold Price Collapse  - Anon84
http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/25269/?ref=rss
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DennisP
The gold price has collapsed? I hadn't noticed.

Not saying his sealed prediction wasn't correct, but your headline seems to
ignore the fact that gold's currently at $1223/oz.

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hga
The headline is link-bait; as the article details, this is a system to detect
when some market is going to change "from superexponential growth to some
other regime (which may not necessarily be a collapse)."

It depends on detecting that the market is in a superexponential growth regime
in the first place (the article indicates that was hard/impossible earlier)
and matching the specific pattern of its behavior to human behavior model
stuff. I can well believe it works and it'll serious utility if it pans out.

Even if it changes the market(s) as good prediction systems tend to do, since
this is a particularly unhealthy type of market.

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jayruy
Macroeconomists have successfully predicted nine of the last five recessions.

