
Apple’s New iPhones Get a Lukewarm Reception from Buyers - andore_jr
https://www.wsj.com/articles/apples-new-iphones-get-a-lukewarm-reception-from-buyers-1513961130
======
jaxondu
If you visit Singapore telcos (SingTel, StarHub, M1) physical store, you will
see a signboard listing availability of iPhone models. For the past many
years, the stocks for new models are generally "Not Available" during
Christmas shopping season. So to buy iPhone at telco store during this period,
you have to queue up before the store open in order to get the daily limited
units released for sale. I just visited telco stores in a busy shopping mall
this evening, and all of them listed iPhone X as "Available" for all color and
memory size. This is clear sign that its not selling as well as expected here.

~~~
misframer
Couldn't they have gotten more of them too?

~~~
JustSomeNobody
Wouldn't that be a clear sign they aren't selling as well as expected?

~~~
CamelCaseName
It could also signal a shift in strategy by Apple to overproduce, or better
models that more accurately estimate demand.

~~~
_Codemonkeyism
It COULD also be a sign for the end of times.

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alkonaut
I'm on a 7, and it's nearly no improvement over my 6 (The only feature
noticable is the better water sealing). Not looking to upgrade any time soon.

And unlike previous generations my last phone is still so good that after a
battery change it will be a parent/sibling phone for 2 more years without
problem. That means that _they_ are less likely to get a new one too. They can
drop their iPhone4S and take my iPhone6, instead of going to the store to get
a 7/8.

I think this is great, and not surprising. There is a point when perf and
features give diminishing returns and we are there. Good!

~~~
maksimum
> There is a point when perf and features give diminishing returns and we are
> there. Good!

I don't understand how someone on hackernews can be excited about the
stagnation of innovation... lol

~~~
alkonaut
There is a lack of demand for innovation which means we are happy with the
technology. I think it’s great. I mean it’s just a smartphone, if I can keep
it longer and spend my money on some _other_ innovation that’s cool too.

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gnicholas
> _according to a survey of 300 iPhone buyers by technology-analysis firm
> Consumer Intelligence Research Partners_

Is 300 the right sample size? I recall reading that Apple sells over 500
iPhones every minute (on average), so I wonder if such a small sample is
appropriate here.

~~~
abakker
It really depends on the sampling characteristics and the observed population
distribution. If iPhone buyers are very consistent and follow a normal
distribution, it _could_ be ok.

~~~
trendia
They don't even need to follow a normal distribution; the central limit
theorem will apply to most naturally-occurring distributions.

------
TazeTSchnitzel
The problem with the iPhone X is its only selling point is the huge screen. It
looks cool, perhaps. But it doesn't really bring anything new or useful to the
design, and requires so many compromises: the (less secure and less
convenient) Face ID instead of Touch ID, no home button, all the basic OS
functionality having completely different gestures or button sequences than
before, the notch at the top covering the screen, reduced status bar size…

It's the epitome of form over function.

~~~
whoisjuan
I hate the freaking Face ID... With my iPhone 7 unlocking was second nature.
Almost never had to enter the pin. With the iPhone X I found my self, entering
the pin at least 50% of the times. Usually when I'm in bed and this thing
can't get a good shot of my face (because my face is smooshed into my pillow)
or when I'm at work and I have the phone flat on my desk. They can try to
defend Face ID as much as they want but it's a total UX nightmare.

~~~
jakobegger
It really depends, I guess.

Touch ID often failed for me. Every time my hands were ever so slightly damp
or sweaty, Touch ID failed.

Face ID almost always works. It works while running, while cooking, when
wearing gloves, and even in the bath tub.

It does fail when I‘m wearing a dust mask, but it‘s probably not a good idea
to bring the iPhone to the workshop anyway.

~~~
rconti
FaceID only fails for me when laying in bed and my face is half covered by the
pillow. It works brilliantly while riding my bike. Yup, sunglasses, helmet,
looking down at the phone while moving 15mph, flawless.

TouchID also almost always worked for me but failed when my hands were wet. My
wife has endless problems with TouchID on her phone.

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mikhailt
I think people are just holding on to their devices longer. The mobile market
is hitting that maturation point where people aren't upgrading the high-end
models every 1-2 years, it's turning into more like the PCs, they'll upgrade
every 3-5 years.

I used to upgrade every two years but stopped that since I got my iPhone 5S,
it's good enough for me. I didn't need anything until the battery life started
to decline and when ATT had a good deal for two iPhones for price of one
installment plan, I got an iPhone X. I would've stay on iPhone 5S for 5 years,
no doubt. I suspect the same for X, I will be staying with it for 5 years.

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rconti
I bought an iPhone X and it's my favorite iPhone I've ever owned. I've fallen
(back) in love with the iPhone and can't quite explain why.

A big part of it, to be honest, was my dislike of my past few phones. The 6
felt like the PERFECT form factor and was a good step up from my 5S, but it
unfortunately suffered from the battery issues Apple claimed "only" affected
the 6S. Once the 7 came out I realized my 6 was 2.5 years old and was
seriously showing the performance impact of an aging phone (typically I stick
to a 2 year cycle). I couldn't bring myself to spend the money on a 7 which I
felt was no real upgrade; the better camera on the 7+ was the only thing to
get me to "jump". Everyone I know who owns large Android or Apple phones
swears you'll love the big screen and never want to go back.

I gotta say, I never liked the 7+. I kept expecting I'd get used to it and
warm to it, but I never did. It was too big to operate with one hand, I always
had to adjust it in my pocket to put my leg up to tie my shoes or get in the
car or whatever, and the added screen size did nothing for me. Every time I
picked up my wife's 7 I thought "this is more like it".

So I bought the X because I didn't want to pay MORE money and "downgrade" to
the single lens camera on the 8; I felt like it was going to be let down. The
X was a bit of a gamble. I was sure I'd miss the home button and touchID; I
regularly used it to unlock my phone while lying flat on my desk and wouldn't
want to pick it up to face me, but thought why not get a big screen in a small
form factor?

The switch to the X was seamless. I have to say, within 5 minutes I had
forgotten all about the home button, in stark contrast to all of the tech
journos who said it took "weeks" to get used to. I'm in my late 30s so I'm
well into my "I feel like a luddite" years, and it takes me seemingly forever
to adapt to new technology, but the lack of a home button was a serious step
up. Every gesture on the X feels totally natural and it all makes sense again.

The form factor of the X is amazing, it's perfect for me and what I want. The
screen is brilliant, everything is just amazing. It's not enough to tell
someone to switch from Android or from an iPhone they already like, but for
the first time in years it feels like a serious step up in every way for
Apple.

Another nice thing is, as someone who doesn't really like to stand out, in a
black case (I use a QuadLock to attach to my bike handlebars), it looks like
absolutely nothing. It's totally featureless on the front and it's a small-ish
phone so it doesn't look flashy or draw attention to you.

------
33degrees
While this may be true, i’m very sceptical about what analysts say regarding
apple...

~~~
jrs95
I don't pay much attention to this sort of thing in general, but with how
often they're wrong about Apple, it makes me wonder if they're that inaccurate
about everything else too

~~~
33degrees
It’s particularly bad with apple because they’re highly successful due to or
despite not following common business wisdom, and many analysts seem convinced
it’s going to catch up with them any day now

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abakker
Sample size of 1: the iPhone X is a huge step up from the 6+. FaceID is very
nice to use, and the lack of a physical home button improves the ergonomics
considerably.

~~~
twoodfin
Agree. The biggest surprise to me was how simultaneously novel and polished
the gesture/flow interface was from the very beginning.

~~~
rmwaite
Also agree. When I pick up my wife's phone to do something I find myself
constantly triggering control center because the home gesture is so ingrained.

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Keyframe
What's the average upgrade cycle of iphone users? I feel like there's
diminishing features in every new iteration of phones in general now. I have a
few years old Xperia Z2 and have been looking at new phones in stores when I'm
near one. Cool screen, this and that, but in general absolutely nothing that I
would need to buy vs what I have, and I'm even inclined towards parting ways
with cash for it - just can't find any valid reason.

~~~
grimgrin
I would imagine a lot of people are on 12 month upgrade cycles. Either going
straight through the carrier's 12 month program, or the iPhone Upgrade
Program.

~~~
pwinnski
In the US, most carriers push a 24-month upgrade cycle, and charge a lot more
for 12-month upgrades.

Even the Apple Upgrade program is a 24-month cycle. Although there is no real
penalty for upgrading after 12 months, there is a charge of more than $100.

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jseliger
If this is true, it makes sense to me:
[https://jakeseliger.com/2017/10/18/apple-isnt-selling-as-
man...](https://jakeseliger.com/2017/10/18/apple-isnt-selling-as-many-new-
iphones) . The most impressive one is too expensive; the others aren't worth
the upgrade.

~~~
andrewmcwatters
> The most impressive one is too expensive; the others aren't worth the
> upgrade.

Perfectly summarizes what Apple has been producing lately, and this isn't just
exclusive to their phones. I wonder when they'll make something worth buying?

------
zitterbewegung
This is a joke. I love my iPhone 8 and my brother has an X and he really like
it too. I see many people buying the X and the 8

~~~
byte1918
Solid argument.

~~~
pwinnski
It's anecdotal, but given the track record of industry analysts regarding
iPhone sales and demand, it's no less solid than the linked article, IMO.

~~~
byte1918
Ok, well, very few of my friends decided to get an X (because of price, some
missing features etc.), some even switched to Android. Does me saying this add
anything new to the discussion? Not really. I expect ycombinator to be more
than just people contradicting each other with anecdotal data.

~~~
pwinnski
My "anecdotal" label was not about "my friends," but because I was not willing
to provide a very, very, very long list of analysts consistently making
incredibly poor estimations of Apple shipping volumes. It's a concrete enough
history that I know I'm not alone in having seen it every year, but I don't
want to spend the hours providing links to prove it.

Apple does not release shipment or sales numbers mid-quarter, and analysts
have repeatedly demonstrated that they consistently misunderstand mid-quarter
indicators of shipping/sales volume.

I'm granting the benefit of the doubt there. It's also possible that there's
widespread market manipulation or deliberately-false headlines for clickbait,
but I'll assume they're just consistently wrong.

------
hitgeek
the cost of new phones has really changed my purchasing behavior.

when it was $200-$300 to upgrade with a contract renewal, I tended to get a
new phone with every iteration, regardless of the new features or condition of
my current phone.

Now that the latest phones are $700+, or $40+ per month with insurance, I
evaluate the purchase in the same way I've always looked at new
laptops/desktops. If the current model meets my needs and there are no new
features I will get much value from, I have no interest in upgrading.

have others experience this shift?

the only new feature that has me interested in a the iPhone X is portrait mode
in a smaller form factor.

~~~
rconti
The price hasn't changed, just your experience of the price.

I buy my phones unlocked for megabucks, and save $15/mo over 2 years (=$360),
don't have to deal with carrier locking restrictions, etc. Then when I
upgrade, I sell the old one.

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rdlecler1
The smaller screen width was a deal breaker for be. I'll wait for the next
iteration which purportedly will have a larger screen.

~~~
jrs95
I hadn't really thought about it but I suppose the current width is why I'm so
comfortable typing on it coming from an iPhone 7. If I'd had the Plus, it
might have felt like kind of a downgrade.

~~~
rconti
Hated every minute of my 7+, happy to have gone back to a sane size with the
X. I could see how someone with insanely huge hands, or someone who needs a
phone to "make a statement" wouldn't want something smaller, but for most of
us, it's great.

~~~
glhaynes
_someone with insanely huge hands, or someone who needs a phone to "make a
statement"_

Or somebody who prefers a larger screen and finds that to outweigh the
drawbacks that come from it... I know lots of people with Plusses and none
have particularly large hands and, more often than wanting to "make a
statement", they count it as a drawback that it appears so large.

~~~
rconti
Yes, I have friends who liked the larger phone who (say) commuted on the train
and did lots of reading with it. I never found it particularly easier to read
on the larger screen, but to each their own. I wasn't trying to malign the
phone as just for those looking to stand out, just that I felt there weren't
many other advantages -- other than, in the case of the 7, the dual camera
system.

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IdontRememberIt
So how can we explain that the delivery delay in most countries (apple.com) is
very short? And was only a few weeks after the launch? Apple is very strong
with financial: I suspect they replaced a decreased volume of sales by a
higher margin per product.

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quantumofmalice
The iPhone SE is more than enough phone for 90% of the people out there.

I wish they'd make a smaller version of it.

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caycep
that being said, the article is comparing it to 2015 which I think was
consider an usually high outlier peak given the intro of the 6 and the large
screen models

~~~
danieldk
It seems so. This graph gives a nice overview of worldwide iPhone sales over
the year:

[https://www.statista.com/statistics/263401/global-apple-
ipho...](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263401/global-apple-iphone-sales-
since-3rd-quarter-2007/)

Sales are still great, but the growth has become stagnant.

------
beamatronic
I'll buy a $3000 MacBook Pro if you bring back USB ports, an SD slot, an HDMI
port, a user replaceable battery. And the escape key.

But no, why don't you just leave this money on the table instead and I'll make
do with the 2013 model.

You go on ahead, Apple, wondering how to ignite more revenue growth.

~~~
yequalsx
It's possible that Apple has analyzed the market and done some research and
concluded that what you want would not generate enough profit vs. their
current offerings. Your money that they left on the table is most likely
dwarfed by the new found money they are getting. At least, if their research
is correct.

~~~
torstenvl
Unit sales and revenue for notebooks fell for Apple from 2015 to 2016. It
picked back up in 2017, but not enough to bring it back to 2015 levels.

That suggests that the shitty keyboard (which improved mildly in 2017) is a
not insignificant factor at the margins.

~~~
yequalsx
Laptop sales have been declining overall since 2011. I’m not sure looking at
unit sales declining is enough evidence that they have made a mistake. I got
no dog in this fight. I don’t care either way but it seems foolish to think
they haven’t thought things through. If they made a mistake, and they quite
possibly did, they’ll try to correct it. In general assuming that personal
tastes are normative can lead to incorrect conclusions. Put another way, Apple
has way more data points to inform their decisions than you or I. Doesn’t mean
they get right though.

------
junkscience2017
Apple's getting lazy. Clearly drowning in money doesn't do much to motivate
employees.

Given Apple's deep pockets and platform ownership, how is it that Spotify is
still alive? How is it the Apple Maps is still lagging Google Maps so
profoundly? Or that Apple can't muster any response to Netflix at all? Let's
not even get into the farcical self-driving car project they aborted

Apple has now had years and unlimited funds to compete in these service
markets, but still is behind. Tim Cook needs to do some exec shuffling, the
company is coasting. Shareholders and analysts won't ask tough questions,
everyone is making money and they don't want to jeopardize access

~~~
mcphage
> how is it that Spotify is still alive? How is it the Apple Maps is still
> lagging Google Maps so profoundly?

It could be that tech expertise and data aren't fungible.

> Or that Apple can't muster any response to Netflix at all?

Nor have they mustered a response to Johnson & Johnson—hell, they haven't even
overtaken Snapple, who are only the _third_ largest soft drink business in the
US.

> Let's not even get into the farcical self-driving car project they aborted

Actually, let's. I'd love to hear what you know about it.

------
creaghpatr
I hope people hurry up and buy them. I have an iPhone 6 and soon they'll slow
down my iOS unless they sell enough new phones!

~~~
sp00ls
That isn't true at all.

