
India will ban driverless cars in order to protect jobs - JumpCrisscross
https://www.engadget.com/2017/07/24/india-ban-driverless-cars-protect-jobs/
======
denzil_correa
Reminds me of this story

> The story goes that Milton Friedman was once taken to see a massive
> government project somewhere in Asia. Thousands of workers using shovels
> were building a canal. Friedman was puzzled. Why weren't there any
> excavators or any mechanized earth-moving equipment? A government official
> explained that using shovels created more jobs. Friedman's response: "Then
> why not use spoons instead of shovels?"

[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230407010457639...](http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304070104576399704275939640.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop)

The attribution for the quote is a bit disputed though :
[http://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/10/10/spoons-
shovels/](http://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/10/10/spoons-shovels/)

~~~
malchow
The brilliance of the Friedman anecdote is that it reveals something Higher-
Life-Form types like Nitin Gadkari, who propose to save you with the wonderful
power of regulation, miss. What they miss is that in their world there's _no_
logically sound riposte to Friedman's question. It _should_ be spoons.
Teaspoons, even. Creates more jobs.

But actually what works is, perhaps, shovels. And then, if you can afford it,
earth-moving equipment.

Who says shovels are best?

Prices say shovels are best. And then, later, prices say earth-moving
equipment is best. You don't have to be a Randian absolutist to conclude that
governments inevitably distort outcomes and impoverish people, even at the
margin, when they control prices.

I think what is implicit in a move like Gadkari's is a belief that the idea of
a "market-clearing price" is an economic textbook proposal that one is free to
adopt or not adopt. In fact these concepts are not theories but reality-
reflecting lenses. Prices are actual facts. The ban on driverless cars will
create grey markets, criminals, cartelize commercial driving, artificially
enhance transport costs, and, perhaps most insidiously, marginally nudge a
young man or woman on the edge of deciding between (say) driving and doing a
Masters degree, to drive.

~~~
zaptheimpaler
Prices don't simply say shovels are best. Economic theory says that under some
ideal conditions, prices reflect what is most efficient, and that whats most
efficient is best.

That is, your argument is more an assumption that ideal economic models apply
than a justification. Ideal economics don't always apply, prices aren't always
transparent, competition isn't always perfect, cows aren't spherical.

------
aphextron
"We won't allow any technology that takes away jobs. In a country where you
have unemployment, you can't have a technology that ends up taking people's
jobs"

I guess we should spin up the weaving looms when the next recession hits?

~~~
anoother
Serious question -- why not? What makes this a bad idea?

~~~
jlebar
Because automated weaving makes clothes a lot cheaper.

Put another way, when workers become more efficient -- one factory worker able
to control many weaving machines, or a relatively small group of programmers
able to control many cars -- people's standard of living increases.

Maybe you're willing to pay more for clothes, or transportation, or any one
thing. But paying more for _all_ of the things that have gotten cheaper due to
increases in efficiency since time X is tantamount to going back to the
standard of living of time X.

~~~
nashashmi
What's the point of making things cheaper when it centers the wealth on just a
few owners? When there are lots of workers working low income jobs versus just
a few workers working high income jobs, it creates a healthier more
distributed economy.

~~~
tomhoward
An estimated 2.3 Billion people now own smartphones. That number is growing at
about 10% per year. All those people have access to the sum of all human
knowledge and the ability to educate themselves almost as well as (some would
argue even better than) the students of the most expensive universities.

They can communicate with anyone else at almost zero marginal cost, and can
sell products and services to basically anyone else on the planet. All because
things keep getting cheaper.

That's the point of making things cheaper.

Sure, a consequence of that is that the founders and executives and financiers
of Google, Samsung, Apple etc are wildly rich. And that means they can (and
do) invest in new products and services to keep improving peoples' standard of
living, as well as funding benevolent projects.

It's pretty amazing if you ask me.

~~~
dorian-graph
> All those people have access to the sum of all human knowledge and the
> ability to educate themselves almost as well (some would argue even better)
> than students of the most expensive universities. They can communicate with
> anyone at almost no marginal cost, and can sell products and services to
> basically anyone else on the planet.

Is this even happening though?

~~~
tomhoward
_Out of Coursera 's 18 million registered learners, 1.3 million are from India
with top registered learners hailing from Bengaluru, Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai
and Hyderabad, the website said today.

Driven by the vast interest coming from Bengaluru, technology hub, nearly half
of enrollments in the country are in technology courses such as computer
science (25 per cent) and data science (18 per cent)._

\-
[http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/services/educat...](http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/services/education/bengaluru-
tops-online-learning-in-india-coursera/articleshow/52078732.cms)

Top Freelancing countries on Elance:

India $312,865,112/649,566 freelancers

United States $310,023,579/1,123,935 freelancers

Ukraine $72,429,514/29,341 freelancers

Pakistan $71,061,107/176,011 freelancers

United Kingdom $35,320,646/126,670 freelancers

Canada $31,379,228/85,639 freelancers

Romania $28,062,831/44,305 freelancers

Russia $27,416,743/21,045 freelancers

Philippines $18,261,489/178,725 freelancers

Argentina $17,796,295

China $17,518,704/28,752 freelancers

Serbia $13,600,638/18,577 freelancers

Bangladesh $11,092,326/66,970 freelancers

[https://www.elance.com/trends/talent-
available/geo#GeoRankin...](https://www.elance.com/trends/talent-
available/geo#GeoRanking)

~~~
nashashmi
And when you try net income per person, you get:

    
    
       Ukraine  $2,468.54 
       Russia  $1,302.77 
       Serbia  $732.12 
       Romania  $633.40 
       China  $609.30

~~~
tomhoward
Thanks, I'm capable of using a calculator :D

There will naturally be a distribution of incomes among those people, with
some people earning little or nothing, and some people earning a lot.

The point is that whatever the income a given person is earning, that is
income that was unavailable to them before modern computing and communications
devices became affordable to them.

That's money that people are using to build better lives for themselves, their
families and their communities.

As I said, that is the point of making things cheaper.

------
blizkreeg
While a braindead statement, it's a bit of a moot point. Humans will likely
settle on Mars before self-driving tech can smoothly navigate India's traffic
and roads.

~~~
hn_throwaway_99
I consider myself a fully autonomous human being, and there is no way I would
ever try to navigate roads in India. If solving autonomous cars in, say,
Denmark is checkers, solving it in India is Go.

~~~
taneq
If driving in Denmark is checkers, driving in India is a tavern brawl.

(Disclaimer: I haven't been to India for a couple of decades... maybe it's
improved?)

------
dantiberian
You could see this as political posturing by the transport minister. As the
article mentions, with the state of India's roads, it was unlikely that it was
going to be getting self-driving cars in the short-term. Banning them now, and
removing the ban once the technology becomes feasible for India's environment
is very possible.

------
ShirsenduK
India has one of the highest number of road fatalities in the world (In top
5). 400 people die everyday on the road! 1000s of more accidents happen which
don't get tracked. People who did nothing wrong get killed because someone was
not paying attention.

Driverless cars or rather augmented driving will save lives but the minister
doesn't care for those. Driverless cars will create more jobs in engineering,
training and monitoring because driverless cars will not come one fine day but
over a period of 10 years.

As someone who is working on self driving tech, this saddens me.

India needs more eyes on this problem because of our roads and our bad traffic
sense. The fact that we don't drive on the same side of the road as the
western world means their tech won't be adaptable directly. So much potential
and opportunity but I guess the minister wants us to keep doing the cheap
menial jobs.

------
praving5
I live in India. Irrespective of whether the Government bans driverless cars
or not, Indian roads and traffic conditions are not suitable for driverless
cars. Period.

~~~
deepGem
I bet if we start testing self driving cars in India, we'll get there in
perhaps another 10-20 years. What's needed is an extremely good path planning
algorithm. Rest of the self driving tech SLAM et al is already solved.

However, the bigger problem on Indian roads is congestion. I think you need
smaller autonomous vehicles that can navigate through the crevices and cracks
( gallis ). Something smaller than the Tata Nano.

~~~
praving5
definitely a driverless toy car :)

------
Miner49er
I hope this doesn't set any sort of precedent. This is extremely short-
sighted. Jobs will be lost, but we should look for real solutions that don't
slow down the improvement of quality of life or the advancement of the human
race in general. Maybe basic income?

------
fellellor
It is easy to shit on the politician's statement, but at least try to
understand where they are coming from. India is facing massive crises on
multiple fronts. Huge number of youth enter the job market every year and
there simply aren't enough jobs to go around. Driving employs a lot of people
who vote, so he can't just ignore their concerns.

In many states, unemployed youth are likely to create a law and order crisis
or exacerbate one that already exists. Neither does India have a huge amount
of money lying around to fund something like UBI.

However, this situation didn't just happen on its own. Indian bureaucracy
stifles private businesses by all kinds of vague regulations. A lot of effort
is needed to rectify this and some people in power understand this, though it
would take some time for them to bring the rest of them on board.

Secondly, the automobile industry in India is extremely significant. I believe
they also bring in a substantial amount of foreign exchange now. If the global
market is moving towards driverless technology, then India's corporates can't
afford to be left behind. And they will put a lot of pressure on the law
makers.

Finally, these politicians aren't very principled people. They will definitely
change their tune under the right circumstances.

~~~
hn_throwaway_99
I think it's already the case that there are _tons_ of "make work" jobs in
India. When I visited, in the hotel I stayed at there were like 4 doorman at
the entrance. In the shared office building where I was working, there were
_2_ people manning the copier - if you wanted to copy something, you had to
hand it to the copier attendant, who would make your copies and then bring
them back to you.

I think your comment is pretty accurate. It's one thing for us to laugh at the
minister, but we don't really have any other solution for the huge numbers of
people who will be put out of work if driverless cars take off in India.

------
Brajeshwar
A long-ish read.

In Indian malls, there are so many helpers standing around that if you lift up
a merchandise, you'll be jump scared by someone asking you how she can help
you. People are also used to asking the prices of the items, even though just
flipping around would reveal the tags that clearly earmarks the final price
(all tax and details). Indian are more used to DIFM (Do it for Me) than the
western DIY culture.

Personally, I usually go on weekdays and I can have about 3+ people buzzing
around me trying to help me decide what I want to buy. They all are my
personal Siri for that location and context.

The labor market is also so cheap that Indians can afford to get much cheaper
manual solutions than the one time bigger investment in automation and
technology. Most people also know that it is more economical in the long run
but don't really want to wait for the far-future gain.

If I hire a wash-helper to just wash my clothes twice a week, it will cost me
just about ₹1000 ($15) (or even less) a month in Bangalore. A good washing
machine (no dryer) will set you back by about ₹30,000($466). At that rate, I
can have the wash-helper wash my clothes without failing or consuming
electricity for 2+ years.

Very similar with a Dishwasher. A dishwash-helper can equivalently go on for
3+ years without any mechanical failure, no electricity consumption and you
can talk to her. No annual maintenance needed either.

In early 2005, I was speaking at my first international conference and had my
first US culture experience. There was a big mall opposite the Hyatt, Dearborn
(forgot the name). I went in at a store and there was nobody to help me. The
unmarked labels didn't help either. I did realize that I had to scan the
barcode with a scanner (attached at quite convenient locations) and shows me
the price details including the state tax. Manual labor is costly stateside
and automation and modernization can bring in huge ROI. In India, anything
that is a DIY needs someone to show them the DIY to the people.

So, when the transport minister says what he says, it is so easy for him to
look for all the easier and more comfortable routes - just get someone to do
it, "drive the car". We are a country where if Ikea comes in, my advice will
be to have an army that can go and assemble their furniture at the customer
location.

You, me and the people who think about automation, thinking 10 years ahead etc
are far and few in between, especially in India, so he will very likely win.

Hell, many other politicians and fanatics are fighting over the exclusion of
the word "cow" in public exhibitions such as movies.

~~~
kamaal
Clarifying a few things so that people get a perspective on your post is
about.

>>In Indian malls, there are so many helpers standing around that if you lift
up a merchandise, you'll be jump scared by someone asking you how she can help
you.

This is because most people can't use these things properly. Its easier(and
cheaper) to put a lift operator than to have people damage lift and having it
repaired/replaced.

>>People are also used to asking the prices of the items, even though just
flipping around would reveal the tags that clearly earmarks the final price
(all tax and details).

Very few do this. Those people who ask generally do it because we are price
conscious, absolutely nothing wrong with that.

Look at the wester society, bulk of the personal finance problems there arise
because people spend money they don't have.

>>Personally, I usually go on weekdays and I can have about 3+ people buzzing
around me trying to help me decide what I want to buy.

Again easier to help you shop quickly this way, than having tens of people
pile up in the store.

>>If I hire a wash-helper to just wash my clothes twice a week, it will cost
me just about ₹1000 ($15) (or even less) a month in Bangalore.

Most people would and do buy a Washing machine for something like this. You
must be rich.

\-----

Let's be frank this no-driverless cars is just political talk. When those cars
arrive, these people will be the first ones trying to convince public about
it.

~~~
Brajeshwar
LOL. Very true about the lifts. People, even many educated ones still ask
which way the lift is going. I sometimes questioned, "Which button did you
press?" They believe they should be "calling the lift" and not
"pointing/pressing" which way need to go.

Being rich, is kinda subjective. No, I'm not rich.

------
avallark
Given India's infrastructure and assuming it will be not a 100% driverless
cars , this is not an issue indian legislators need to worry about. At least
until India can achieve a 100% literacy rate and assure driving licenses given
out are genuine.

------
bellBivDinesh
What a shame. The mortality rate for car accidents in India is staggering.

~~~
Pxtl
I'm honestly surprised it's not a bigger deal, particularly since it's easy to
draw vehicular safety along class lines - rich people have big safe cars and
drivers and poor people don't. I'd think India's class-conscious politicians
would make some noise.

------
deepGem
Ah, another ban. Welcome to the new age governance in India. Some government
official in Karnataka wanted to ban ride sharing as well. I hear the
government's sentiment about creating jobs, but hey have these guys ever sat
in that shitty truck and driven all night ? Fucking armchair politicians.

Anyways, I used to think why hasn't any company invested in self driving tech
in India - and now the answer becomes pretty clear. One can possibly take the
government head on and challenge the ban in the Supreme court.

------
justboxing
Forget the part about protecting jobs, how confident will the driverless cars
companies be even otherwise, sending their cars out into the chaotic traffic
in India, where you routinely share the road with bicycles, motorcycles,
scooters, rickshaws, handcarts, buses, lorries (trucks), cows and the
occasional sheep and donkeys?

Related video => [2006] India Driving
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjrEQaG5jPM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjrEQaG5jPM)

~~~
perfectstorm
I remember reading about an Indian startup making autonomous vehicles. I
believe they were bought out by TATA or funded by some big company. This was
couple years back.

Edit:
[https://www.google.com/amp/s/thenextweb.com/cars/2017/06/12/...](https://www.google.com/amp/s/thenextweb.com/cars/2017/06/12/dr-
roshy-john-on-turning-a-3500-car-autonomous-and-the-future-of-self-driving-
vehicles-in-india/%3famp=1)

------
rmason
India's exports have to compete against those of other countries. If India
places itself at a competitive disadvantage as this Transportation official
proposes they will lose sales and thus jobs.

Sure they can manipulate the currency but that places a tax on what everyone
buys from overseas and lowers standards of living.

------
mlechha
I find this discussion pointless as driverless cars that can drive on Indian
roads are a long way from becoming a reality.

------
harhsrvabne
A complete joke, India can't even supply 24/7 electricity and water to the
majority of their population, they may as well be discussing the outlawing of
thermodynamics. It is as if a child showed up to a dissertation discuss
astrophysics, what a bunch of clowns.

------
jordache
human costs are so cheap there.. the ROI threshold is much more challenging to
achieve

~~~
zghst
In a darker aspect, it seems the gov’t values the lives of their citizens so
little that they can’t be afforded modern technological gains. The rich of
India will sure experience it, as they travel abroad.

------
miguelrochefort
These ideas seem to come up a lot. I see people advocating these ideas
everywhere, even on HN.

How can anyone think that job creation is better than job elimination?

------
theprop
What a complete idiot in soooo many ways...now you can understand the
situation of India's development when such utter morons are "leaders" of
India! India actually needs driverless cars more desperately than any country
in the world given it's world-leading 200,000 fatalities every year.

~~~
rgbrenner
China had 260k:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-r...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-
related_death_rate)

If you sort that by per 100k people or vehicles, India isn't doing too badly.
They just have a lot of people.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
And it's not even the main reason they need it, which is to optimize the usage
of much more limited road infrastructure. Even china has been building roads
like crazy, there is only so much space to put them when population density is
so high....

------
throwawayxyz709
Given the infrastructure in India, this is probably a wise decision.

