
The cold war between U.S. and China just got a lot hotter - lordmax
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/18/op-ed-the-cold-war-between-us-and-china-just-got-a-lot-hotter.html
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simonblack
The US is constricted by the two doctrines, the Wolfowitz Doctrine, and the
Thucydides Trap, into a hot war with China to prevent China from taking the
No.1 spot for military and economic power.

China is not under the same pressure. Its bigger growth in GDP means that
sooner or later, probably around 2025, it will automatically take that No. 1
spot anyway, thus relegating the US to the No.2 position.

That is unacceptable to people in the US, where nobody under about the age of
50 has personal experience of that situation ever happening before. It would
be unthinkable and mind-blowing for them. (For us older people, we can
remember when the Soviets were first into space, they had bigger H-bombs,
etc.)

Consequently, the US must embark on a hot war to prevent that happening.
Unfortunately for the US they lost their golden opportunity of initiating the
conflict before/during the Spring-Summer Campaign Season of 2020.

From here on in, the US will be under a declining probability of Victory,
while China has a growing probability of Victory in that war. Nevertheless,
the US will be forced to initiate the conflict which will very likely result
in huge damage, defeat or bankruptcy for the US.

Most Americans will refuse to see this outcome and will be angry that they
have been forced to see it happen.

~~~
082349872349872
If JFK were alive today, he might have half a mind to ask why that should be
unacceptable to people in the US.

His 1961 inaugural address not only suggested avoiding the Sith morality of
"one to embody power, the other to crave it"[1]:

> "And if a beachhead of cooperation may push back the jungle of suspicion,
> let both sides join in creating a new endeavor, not a new balance of power,
> but a new world of law, where the strong are just and the weak secure and
> the peace preserved."

but even referenced a chinese _chengyu_ , 騎虎難下:

> "remember that, in the past, those who foolishly sought power by riding the
> back of the tiger ended up inside."

(Cynics will note that both JFK and НСХ were cancelled, just a few seasons
later.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_John_F._Kenne...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_John_F._Kennedy#JFK_Act_and_Assassination_Records_Review_Board)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikita_Khrushchev#Removal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikita_Khrushchev#Removal)

An optimist would note both fates were better than being nailed to a tree for
saying how great it would be to be nice to people for a change.)

On a much lighter note, also from 1961, here's a musical number that starts
with a construction crew holiday party and ends with Sputnik (1m47):
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmTzvtLXB8s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmTzvtLXB8s)

[1] Anyone know how the Rule of Two is translated in chinese? (I've never
watched eps. 1-3, so I wouldn't even know what timestamps to check in subs.)
It seems like it'd be amenable to the _chengyu_ treatment, along the lines of
一霸一觊?

