
Low correlation of predictions and outcomes is no evidence against hot hand - nafizh
http://andrewgelman.com/2016/12/19/30759/?utm_content=bufferab985&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
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protomyth
Does "Hot Hand" mean something different to statisticians than then sport's
participants? I ask because I'm seeing code in the article's comments that
doesn't correspond to what I would think is the definition.

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tingletech
This is from the abstract to the "original paper" according to the comments:
"We investigate the origin and the validity of common beliefs regarding “the
hot hand” and “streak shooting” in the game of basketball. Basketball players
and fans alike tend to believe that a player’s chance of hitting a shot are
greater following a hit than following a miss on the previous shot."

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protomyth
> Basketball players and fans alike tend to believe that a player’s chance of
> hitting a shot are greater following a hit than following a miss on the
> previous shot.

Interesting. That's certainly not what I believe, but I guess they've done the
research. In my circle, it was the belief that sometime you get in a zone and
really are having a good day, feeling good, and shooting well. I certainly
have had basketball and golf games where I made some shots, but didn't think I
had the hot hand. I've also been on the floor when I felt really well and hit
quite a few in a row. That's the hot hand from a player's perspective.

This really sounds like a simplified scenario that doesn't really have
anything to do with what players talk about.

