
Losing 80% of mobile users is normal - prostoalex
http://andrewchen.co/new-data-shows-why-losing-80-of-your-mobile-users-is-normal-and-that-the-best-apps-do-much-better/?utm_source=andrewchen&utm_campaign=3ae54ccc4f-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c1fae7e415-3ae54ccc4f-85701681
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bjoernbu
As a user that probably contributes a lot to the trends observed in the
article, I think I can explain my user-behavior pretty well.

I really need about ~5 apps on my phone (browser, mail, alarm, somehow
whatsapp managed to become one of those, and maybe few others I don't recall
now).

All other apps I download for a very specific use case:

\- Rent a bike a foreign city that I'll leave again pretty soon

\- Navigate during that one trip where I don't expect to be connected to the
internet

\- Play a game during the single train ride where my Kindle has no more
battery

\- Check scores during that one playday of soccer where I have no access to my
usual channels (TV, Friends, Browser)

\- etc

At the moment of downloading I often know for how long I will be using that
app. Most of the time it is only on that single day, otherwise for the
duration of a trip. I'm not sure there's too much App makers could do to keep
me as a user (aside from sending me a brand-new phone). I don't really like my
phone and I really prefer using my laptop or even desktop, whenever possible.

~~~
mastermojo
I agree!

An app developer needs to be mindful of if their app is a
daily/weekly/monthly/annual use case.

I have plenty of apps on my phone that I purposefully keep around but will
probably only use when I do that big trip once year: TripAdvisor, AirBnb,
WhatsApp, GoPro, EpicMix etc.

Other apps: Amazon, Shazam, Bank(to cash checks) I also keep around but use
rarely.

Under a conventional definition I've probably been marked as a "churned" user
many times over for Shazam. It keeps sending me notifications for random
things (Click here to find out the trending new hot single from Shakira!) so
I've turned them off.

I also hate when companies force you to download their app to do something.
United wouldn't let me check-in and print my boarding pass from my computer. I
had to download an app and scan my passport with my camera.

~~~
wlesieutre
> I also hate when companies force you to download their app to do something.
> United wouldn't let me check-in and print my boarding pass from my computer.
> I had to download an app and scan my passport with my camera.

I have a family member who still uses a dumbphone, so he's just SOL. These
arbitrary restrictions must be maddening, especially when they clearly _have_
an HTML/JS implementation already with a cross platform wrapper around it, and
they've deliberately chosen that nobody should ever be able to use it from a
computer.

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tragic
> Each of the scenarios above can have both a qualitative activation goal, as
> well as quantitive results to make sure it’s really happening. Whatever you
> do, sending a shitload of spammy email notifications with the subject line
> “We Miss You” is unlikely to bend the curve significantly.

> I hate those, and you should too.

For this reason, I hope he's right and Android developers pay attention.
Sometimes one upvote is not enough.

Alas, I expect that by the time you're in the long-tail of that curve, you
have simply nothing to lose by going the vexatious notification route.

~~~
Arnt
Also nothing to gain.

The time spent on implementing notification spam can be spent better on
analysis of what went wrong in the first days.

~~~
tragic
That may not be first thing on the mind of people trying desperately to keep
the dream alive.

Still, it's bloody irritating.

------
lucb1e
> Whatever you do, sending a shitload of spammy email notifications [...]

Yeah and thanks for that pop-up to prove your point.

------
brillenfux
Is there a uBlock filter to block subscription pop-ups?

~~~
avian
Isn't it funny how an article talking about user retention keeps throwing
annoying pop-ups in your face?

~~~
brillenfux
I would say he is just as unconvinced about the quality of his content like
the guys he's talking about. And this is the forceful, desperate result.

------
joaorj
The notification spam is affective on bending the curve for mysefl. Most of
the times I get them I uninstall the app within minutes.

~~~
ketralnis
I've had to ban some unfortunately good games from my phone because the
developer thinks that 2am is a good time to make my phone make a retention
noise or beg me to buy in-game currency.

I also note the dev studio and never download anything from them again because
these things are rarely one-offs.

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sdoering
Did you really post the link including the campaign-parameters? Oh will will
so screw his analytics ^^.

Kudos from an analyst.

~~~
prostoalex
I post via bookmarklet, so yeah, whatever's in the address bar. hn sometimes
trims most common parameters.

~~~
rplnt
I, on the other hand, always trim urls when sharing them. Sometimes I break
them :)

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betandr
There might be a certain amount of 'flag-planting' going on too. Especially
with a new social network, people can register, grab their favourite username,
then ignore the network for a while; only coming back when it has gained
enough traction for others to join. Ok, a small set of people, but a set
nevertheless.

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VLM
Wouldn't 50% retention of the top 50 apps imply most people use well over 25
apps? That is a figure that shocks me. Maybe there's a raw data problem?

The methodology claims to exclude popular preinstalled apps so my gmail, my
wifes facebook, and my son's youtube use wouldn't be counted, so its 25 apps
other than the popular ones.

I don't personally know anyone who uses more than about 10 apps on a daily
basis...

Some other conclusions can be determined financially, like 20% of top 100
retained implies installing and ignoring 80 apps per month? I think I
installed one or two?

~~~
aetherson
50% retention of people who download them in the first place. Not 50%
retention of the entire potential market.

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JohnyLy
This is normal but that doesn't mean it's good... or bad. Retention of 20% can
be good for some industries like education apps, but is low for social media
apps.

~~~
Mahn
It's bad in many cases. If you do mobile games with IAPs for instance, 20%
retention during the first 7 days, with the ever rising user acquisition costs
we have today, pretty much means you can't be profitable unless you explode
virally. And since in 99% of the cases this does not happen, this effectively
means the vast majority of developers doing mobile games _now_ will be out of
business in maybe a year or two. Which is a pretty depressing thought.

------
tempodox
My own experience leads me to guess that the retention curve on iOS would look
quite similar. Its overall form (≈ 1/x) is no surprise.

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codesushi42
No doubt the mobile app bubble will pop very soon. There are way too many apps
released that no one is using. I personally tie much of my activity to my
mobile web browser, unless I'm using Email/Twitter or Geo.

It's becoming a terrible idea to build a startup entirely on a mobile app.

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visarga
There are about 1.5 million apps in Google's and Apple's app stores. People
can only install on the order of 100 apps on a phone. Even if the devs would
implement techniques to capture users in their first days, on average, apps
can't possibly get much use.

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zecg
> The key to success is to get the users hooked during that critical first 3-7
> day period.

FOAD. The key is offering something useful, so you don't have to think like a
crack dealer. OSMand never lost me as a user.

~~~
untilHellbanned
So the top 100 Apps don't offer something useful? I think the point is that
regardless of how useful the app is, there is decreasing engagement right
away. It's best to not be demoralized by it and think through your onboarding.

The goal is not to shift the slope because that is similarly negative
regardless of how useful your app is. Rather, focus on day 1 where the
downslope starts at 75% vs. 50% vs. 25% retained users.

~~~
kamilszybalski
I would agree and think it's equally important to focus on flat lining
retention well within 30 days. Most products that fail, fail because retention
falls and falls until it hits 0. If you find product-market fit that
establishes a flat line of say, 10-30% retention within ~30 days, it likely
means you've found a user who actually values, and continues to value, using
your product. Just my 0.02

