
A toilet paper run is like a bank run. The economic fixes are about the same - YeGoblynQueenne
https://theconversation.com/a-toilet-paper-run-is-like-a-bank-run-the-economic-fixes-are-about-the-same-133065
======
kwhitefoot
> Stocking up to prepare for a crisis isn't 'panic buying'. It's actually a
> pretty rational choice

That's because stocking up in preparation for a crisis happens when there is
no crisis and you buying a thousand rolls doesn't trigger other people to do
it; they just shake their heads and mutter 'prepper'.

Panic buying something when the crisis has already started just means that
uncritical people will also panic buy that thing and everyone, including you,
suffers because now there are queues just to get in to the supermarket even if
you don't want to buy that thing.

So it's only rational if you discount the rest of the system.

------
chewz
It is anecdotal but this morning I have stoped by the local supermarket and
everything is fully stocked including toilet paper. Not many customers. If I
didn't read the news I wouldn't notice that there is something going on.

We had few days of intensive buying here in Poland last week but it is over
now.

~~~
YeGoblynQueenne
I live in the UK and panic-buying is not anecdotal. Just today, the government
pleaded with shoppers to show responsibility and think of emergency personnel,
such as NHS staff, who can't go shopping early in the day and are left with
nothing in the evening:

[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/21/coronavirus-
uk...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/21/coronavirus-uk-panic-
buyers-urged-to-think-of-frontline-workers)

Also, supermarkets are imposing limits on goods to stop hoarding:

[https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/18/asda-
puts-r...](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/18/asda-puts-
restrictions-on-shoppers-to-limit-stockpiling-coronavirus)

And the governemtn is relaxing trade rules so that supermarkets can work
together to face the unfolding crisis:

[https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/19/food-
retail...](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/19/food-retailers-
urge-government-to-relax-regulations-coronavirus)

So in the UK at least, panic-buying is a thing.

Edit: and, btw, it's a thing that's hitting me hard because I refuse to go mad
along with everyone else and hoard. Unfortunately for me, the government and
supermarkets have plans in place to ensure vunlerable people have access to
goods, but there's no such provisions for people who have just not gone mad
yet. So I fear I might want for basic stuff as time goes by.

People are such shits when they're running scared.

~~~
mtrower
It's bad in the U.S. as well. At least in Wisconsin, toilet paper, bleach,
etc. Are nowhere to be found. Not in the supermarkets, not in the corner
stores, not in the hardware stores... Milk, flour and eggs are also scarce.
The limits are there but it's hard to say if it's helping.

Radio hosts are pleading with people to stop hoarding and just be reasonable.

Fortunately, my wife is a soapmaker, so we won't run out of at least that.

~~~
ryandrake
Pleading with people shouldn’t be part of the solution. Everyone responds to
incentives. The government can and should fine people for hoarding, fine them
for reselling, and fine companies for allowing it all by not having sensible
limits. This would eliminate the profit incentive (for both suppliers and
consumers) of bad behavior.

~~~
mtrower
A radio host is just a person, not the government.

There are limits being placed to combat hoarding and strict penalties against
reselling on major marketplaces. Attempts are being made. But I don't think
it's as simple as you suggest, at least in the U.S. (Which government? How do
you identify the hoarders? Where is the line which continues hoarding vs.
having sufficient stock?)

There was a case of someone hoarding massive amount of sanitizer with intent
to resell, who then couldn't resell any of it. I hear the government compelled
them to donate it (don't have a source, that part is just hearsay). But that's
an individual case. At scale I think the problem quickly changes.

~~~
kwhitefoot
The solution is neither fines nor radio hosts pleading. It is solidarity.

Unfortunately it is in shorter supply than toilet paper and takes generations
to build up but only decades to destroy.

People need to set an example to their neighbours and friends, make it
socially unacceptable to panic buy. It's not hoarding that is the problem it
is is the unnecessary high rate of purchase. You could hoard all you wanted if
you did it slowly in times when there is not a crisis.

Here in Norway we have a little more solidarity than most countries I believe
but even here there was a one or two day period at the beginning when people
went out to buy large quantities of toilet paper.

~~~
YeGoblynQueenne
It's like you say. Noam Chomsky has published a book a while ago, called
"Requiem for the American Dream: The 10 Principles of Concentration of Wealth
& Power". Chapters are given titles implying "laws" for the concentration of
wealth and power.

One chapter is titled "Attack Solidarity" and it describes how social
solidarity in the US was eroded in the previous decades, resulting in a poor
social state with almost no public health insurance, with no public higher
education and so on.

But it's not just the US. This is happening in some other developed countries
also (though hopefully not all, like you say). What is happening now in the
UK, with the stockpiling situation, is absolutely the result of broken
societal bonds that has led people to mistrust authorities and each other and
adopt an attitude of "every man and every woman for themselves".

I should probably not blame people to be honest. They are acting like little
shits, but they are right to believe that, if anything happens to them, nobody
will take care of them and that they have to fend for themselves, in this
selfish, greedy society that is governed by incompetent idiots.

------
tenebrisalietum
I'm wondering how long it will take everyone to be at capacity for toilet
paper. I mean I can fill entire rooms with it but then it physically gets in
the way. There has to be a point of diminishing returns soon.

~~~
nogabebop23
It also seems crazy for it to be toilet paper in the first place.

Its (1) easy to make, (2) mostly produced in-country with no long, integrated
supply chain and (3) relatively new (talk to someone over 80 who grew up
rural, they probably switched from the sears catalog to toilet paper in their
life).

~~~
the8472
It's one of the bulkiest consumable products people buy. Which means a whole
shelf is only equivalent a few families worth of demand. So it only takes a
few buyers stocking up for a few weeks of use to empty the shelves. And once
the shelves are empty the panic sets in.

~~~
teambayleaf
Also due to its bulkiness, there is a limit on how many units can be delivered
per truck.

In short, toilet paper is a low margin, least-stocked product with difficulty
in transportation. Logistics matters.

------
SilasX
Uh, what? Did this get cut off somewhere? [1]

It sounds like the author's concluding that the fixes _aren 't_ the same.
Daley says that the fix for the bank run is for the government to step in as a
guarantor and provide the cash to depositors withdrawing, then says that
that's not possible for toilet paper, and thus it should do a quantity limit
... with no further economic analysis except that it worked somewhere.

Those are, like, the _opposite_ solutions. Government (or the central bank, in
this case[2]) can easily loan money out of thin air, but it can't do the same
for toilet paper. At most, it could commandeer suppliers or initiate its own
manufacturing, which breaks the economic similarity.

Similarly, the solution for toilet paper (quantity limit) doesn't apply to the
bank run case, as bank insurers don't do a quantity limit. Arguably, the
deposit insurance maximum is a kind of quantity limit, but Daley doesn't offer
it as such, and it's known in advance, and unrelated to customers' legal right
to how much they can access, so is non-analogous in several respects.

Since no defense of quantity limits is given beyond (as above) that it worked
once, the title is bad and the argument isn't well supported.

[1] For the record, here's what I see as the last paragraph so you know if I'm
missing something:

>The second solution is to ration the commodity – putting limits on the amount
a customer can buy. Imperfect though these buying limits are, they are
feasible, as shown by the restrictions put in place by Australia’s
supermarkets. [https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/coles-joins-
woolworths-...](https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/coles-joins-woolworths-
in-rationing-toilet-paper-20200305-p5471r)

[2] Let's not break into the debate about whether the Federal reserve is
private or not; it really doesn't matter for purposes of this topic.

~~~
YeGoblynQueenne
>> Those are, like, the opposite solutions. Government (or the central bank,
in this case[2]) can easily loan money out of thin air, but it can't do the
same for toilet paper.

If I may offer a brief moment of levity to relieve the tension of the moment,
I must point out that if the government can print money then it can create
toilet paper.

~~~
TheSpiceIsLife
That might not work here in Australia as our money is plastic!

~~~
YeGoblynQueenne
Plastic as in synthetic banknotes, or plastic as in credit and debit cards?
The latter might be a bit of a problem, indeed.

~~~
TheSpiceIsLife
Plastic notes

------
carapace
TP hoarders bemuse me.

I cannot imagine a scenario where things have gotten so bad that we can't make
toilet paper but our biggest problem is wiping our asses.

It's like, "Civilization is falling but at least I have a year's worth of TP!"
!?

\- - - -

There are all kinds of ways to clean your crack (bidets, showers) and making
paper is pretty straightforward.

The internet is failing me, but the old "rag trade" was all about collecting
old clothes and reprocessing them into new cloth and paper.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rag-and-
bone_man](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rag-and-bone_man)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cotton_paper](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cotton_paper)

~~~
WillPostForFood
I dunno, imagine being locked in your house for a month. Pretty much the only
absolutely necessary behavior is to eat, drink, sleep, pee and poop. If you
stock up on food for eating, you are going to need TP for pooping. You can
survive without TP, but it would be unpleasant.

------
standardUser
It's a fun and silly article, but it would take a vasty greater disruption to
actually cause a toilet paper shortage. The "problem" right now is that
deliveries don't happen every 3 hours, so if people buy out all the TP at a
store they have to wait for that TP to get restocked. It's not as if the
trucks have stopped coming or the toilet paper factories have shut down.
People just need to wait a few days, which is unusual but not really a
problem.

~~~
pdonis
_> People just need to wait a few days_

I have been unable to find TP at any store within a half hour's drive from my
house for about a week and a half now.

~~~
californical
I got desperate this morning and woke up early to wait in line outside of a
store before it opened (which on its own was insane), only to find that they
didn't have any stock come in overnight. Rushed over to the next store --
queue of people around the block waiting to get in. Drove to another town at
7:30am and tried their store, and they had TP but only small packages, limit
of one, and I got one of the last ones. Not looking forward to doing this
again in a week or so, but at least we got some.

------
p2detar
> The second solution is to ration the commodity – putting limits on the
> amount a customer can buy. Imperfect though these buying limits are, they
> are feasible, as shown by the restrictions put in place by Australia’s
> supermarkets.

The restrictions do not work, if not heavily supervised. And even then it’s
still a gamble. People would queue again at another cashier to buy another
pack of TP. I don’t think there is a solution, if actors are invested in
gaming it.

~~~
zxcvbn4038
Or implement surge pricing like uber so only the rich have toilet paper and
it’s cvs receipts and three sea shells for everyone else.

Issuing ration cards like WWII would be an option also and that solves a
number of the problems you mentioned, you could use the existing electronic
benefits infrastructure for that.

You’ll never have a completely unbeatable system but you can go a long way to
keep honest people honest. Even forbidding the resale of TP so people realize
they are stuck with whatever they buy can do a lot of good - people wont buy
eight thousand rolls of toilet paper if they know they’ll be stuck with it.

~~~
zxcvbn4038
Along that thought I imagine that if TP resale was forbidden then people would
have to pay the moffia to take the stuff and insert it into the supply chain
someplace so then it would be double penalty - you lock up significant
resources in TP or you take a loss to have someone sell it for you.

------
rsync
I am particularly disturbed by emergent behaviors and life decisions that are
now laid bare in this crisis.

As a Bay Area resident, it is _incumbent upon me_ to maintain, in perpetuity,
several weeks of food and drinking water as well as various other life
essentials. _I owe this_ to my family and everyone in my community as we all
live in a place where a tremendous natural disaster and accompanying social
dis-integration could occur _at any time_.

Of course I have had my suspicious ...

Now we see that most residents of the Bay Area are barely prepared to make
dinner _tomorrow_ and have supplies on-hand for a day or two. They don't have
contingency plans for the absence of water, electricity or gas and I suspect
very few are certified and practiced in even _basic_ CPR.

Shame on you.

There is going to be a day when even the grocery stores aren't open and the
water isn't going to flow. Possibly for weeks. I plead with you to spend your
quarantine time getting your shit together the way you've always been expected
to.

~~~
YeGoblynQueenne
>> As a Bay Area resident, it is incumbent upon me to maintain, in perpetuity,
several weeks of food and drinking water as well as various other life
essentials. I owe this to my family and everyone in my community as we all
live in a place where a tremendous natural disaster and accompanying social
dis-integration could occur at any time.

Sorry, but I'm missing the context to understand your comment. Can you
explain? What is the tremendous natural disaster that compels you to maintain
sevearl weeks of food and drinking water?

~~~
chrisfinne
Earthquake

------
dayofthedaleks
Create more toilet paper by fiat?

------
pascalxus
all this toilet paper nonsense got me thinking about how much TP people
actually use. I looked up the statistics and it said the average US person
uses 1 to 2 rolls per week!! I was floored. What are these people eating?

I'm mostly vegan and i do fast a lot, due to a slow metabolsim. But, I barely
use 1 roll per 2 months. We shop for costco TP, maybe once per year, if that
much.

Conclusion: people use a lot of TP.

~~~
qihqi
I guess you are a male. Half of the population uses 10x TP than the other half
due to using it for both #1 and #2.

~~~
pascalxus
as a male, i also use it for #1 and #2. but, i guess as a male you use less on
the #1.

~~~
WillPostForFood
In crisis situation, to save TP, men may want to limit themselves to tapping.

