

Android Sales Overtake iPhone in the U.S. - yanw
http://gigaom.com/2010/08/02/android-sales-overtake-iphone-in-the-u-s/

======
byoung2
I think part of the loyalty numbers for iPhone users is the substantial
investment they make in other Apple hardware, software, and App Store apps.
Unfortunately, I don't have any hard data to back this up, but I imagine a
large percentage of iPhone users have at least one other piece of Apple
hardware, such as a Mac, iPad, iPod Touch, etc., that works seamlessly
alongside the iPhone and iTunes. That makes it tougher to break away from the
iPhone. My coworker is one such example. He has an iPhone, a Macbook, and a
Mac Mini. He loves the fact that iTunes ties them all together, and wouldn't
get a different phone because of it.

Android doesn't have that kind of integration, simply because there isn't that
tight integration. For example, my girlfriend and I both have Android phones,
but everything else we have is Microsoft (2 laptops on XP and Vista, a media
center PC and a Viliv S5 tablet on Windows 7, and an XBox 360). If Google
could get all of those other devices dependent on Google software like Apple
does with iTunes, they'd have a shot at keeping people loyal.

You'll also notice that Microsoft missed a big opportunity here. In addition
to all of that Microsoft hardware, we used to both have Windows Mobile phones,
but there was nothing to tie them all together like iTunes. I would have
thought something like XBox Live Marketplace could have worked (e.g. as a
central place to buy content for all my devices, share contacts and data,
etc.), but Microsoft never executed. Maybe with Windows Phone 7 they will...

~~~
axod
Google showcased a ton of this at Google I/O.

Android ties in really well to their webapps, Google TV (If that succeeds),
etc.

I remember one example was that you can go to maps.google.com and click on a
phone icon, and it just sends it straight to your phone which opens a map in
the same place. That's really useful integration. I forget the rest of the
examples, but they were all pretty 'wow'.

I think iTunes is an example of how _not_ to do things. The iPhone is reliant
on iTunes completely. With android, it stands on its own and can integrate
with other things when you want it to.

~~~
dannyr
If you have Android 2.2/Froyo, you can download both the Chrome Extensions &
Android app.

<http://code.google.com/p/chrometophone/downloads/list>

~~~
rodh257
if you don't have 2.2, download an app called 'linkpush' sits in chrome and
you click it, copies the url and then you can open the app on your phone to
open it.

------
melling
This trend was pretty easy to spot. Almost 6 months ago:

<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1129465>

The problem is that developers are making a lot more money on iPhone apps.
I've heard several developers complaining that their apps don't sell on
Android. Will this eventually change?

~~~
gregholland
I don't think it will change anytime soon.

1, The marketplace sucks compared to the app store in many ways. There are few
ways to feature your apps on the marketplace vs apple which has the "what
hot", "new and noteworthy", "top paid", "top grossing" categories. In
comparison, the android marketplace doesn't.

2, On the apple app store, you are given more promotion room on your app page
itself for more descriptive text and screenshots.

3, The android marketplace is FILLED with crap and spam apps, just go to the
"whats new" section of your android marketplace and its filled with 95% crap-
ware and those ringtone apps. There is no clear way for consumers to find good
apps vs these garbage apps. This destroys the user's experience in the
marketplace.

4, Related to above, the lack of regulation has fostered a system where
comment spamming other apps's page and creating apps that does shady things
with user's data is actually more profitable than creating quality apps. see
here: <http://tinyurl.com/2f3r4g9>

5, There is a culture of "free" and "opensource" in the entire Android
ecosystem and most apps are released for free or are ad-supported. Google seem
to love this since if you use their ad system, they get a cut and therefore
they don't seem to have an incentive to push paid apps to have wider
availability.

On the other hand, I'm looking forward to what Meego and Win7MO will bring for
us developers. I hope they will follow Apple's model of having tighter control
over their app stores rather than the mess that the Android marketplace is.

~~~
WilliamLP
It's ironic that what developers hate about iPhone is precisely what makes it
ideal for developers who want to make money. This being the walled garden, the
inability to easily install free third party programs, and also the fact that
there is a financial barrier to entry (a Mac, plus a dev fee) means that other
developers are reluctant to make their apps free in the first place - meaning
you don't have to compete with people giving their apps away!

It's a brilliant, (albeit arguably evil), strategy by Apple to create a
viscous circle where developers bind themselves to iPhone, which means the
good apps wind up there and thus users buy the product and pay for superior
apps, which makes it more lucrative to develop for, and so on. And they sell
some extra Macs and make money on dev fees, _and_ take a cut out of every app
store sale. It's really a simply ingenious grand strategy which has worked
unbelievably well for them, however unethical or limiting some people might
think it is.

~~~
dejb
> It's a brilliant, (albeit arguably evil), strategy by Apple to create a
> viscous circle where developers bind themselves to iPhone, which means the
> good apps wind up there and thus users buy the product

The only problem with your theory is the 'Android Sales Overtake iPhone in the
U.S' part. Perhaps Android will need a bigger market share (double?) to really
start stealing the higher quality developers from iOS but if the trend
continues this will happen.

~~~
demallien
Not really. Firstly, if you're going to count all Android device sales against
the iPhone, you're going to also have to count all iOS devices, such as the
iPod Touch and the iPad. At this point, iOS is still well ahead of Android in
the US.

Secondly, the US is _not_ the whole world. Here in France I don't know anyone
other than tech geeks that have Android phones, but a majority of my friends
have iPhones or Blackberries.

Thirdly, you have to take into account the fact that Apple has created a
culture of users paying for content. They have also made paying for content as
painless as is humanly imaginable - select item, enter password, and it
downloads straight to your phone. Android devs have a long wait ahead before
they start to see the returns that iOS devs are seeing.

------
hop
This is pre iPhone 4 information, it doesn't take into account the biggest
phone launch in history.

[http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/08/02/nielson_androi...](http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/08/02/nielson_android_flourished_before_iphone_4_but_apple_most_desired.html)

~~~
cheald
Not to discount the size of the launch, but it's estimated that 77% of iPhone
4 purchases were upgrades from earlier-generation iPhones. Still an impressive
launch, but Apple didn't grow their marketshare by 3 million handsets.

[http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/06/25/77-of-
iphone-4-sales-...](http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/06/25/77-of-
iphone-4-sales-were-upgrades/)

~~~
nixy
And those iPhone 3G(S) that were being replaced were simply thrown in the bin?
Or were they passed on to the second hand market?

~~~
palish
My fiancee's 3GS was passed to me, and my iPhone 1 was thrown in the bin.

~~~
napierzaza
For sure iPhone 2Gs are being thrown out at this point. But are Android
phones' stale dates any better? They much much worse.

------
TrevorFancher
This is only interesting if you look at it the right way.

The way I see it is that there are many manufacturers of Android phones, while
every iPhone is manufactured by Apple.

Also, every phone that runs iOS has specifications much more the same than
that of every phone which runs Android. Apple's approach makes it easier for
developers to get their app running consistently on as many devices as
possible.

[http://gigaom.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/smartphone-
switch....](http://gigaom.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/smartphone-switch.jpg)
is interesting, though. If the data is to be believed, 20% of Android users
will buy a phone from Apple next time they make a purchase and 90% of iPhone
users will buy another iPhone.

~~~
wtallis
Those numbers for future purchases are pretty interesting, particularly if you
consider where they lead. If those numbers hold relatively steady, then it
suggests that Blackberry is doomed to drop below 10% of the installed base,
and that Android won't ever be able keep hold of an installed base even one
third the size of the iPhone's.

In reality, a platform declining as steeply as Blackberry will probably
accelerate it's decline until their only remaining customers are those who are
locked-in, unless they can make their phones much more enticing before they've
lost too many customers.

------
evilmushroom
Look-- even if you're a rabid iPhone fanboy, you should want Android to be
super successful. The more successful it is, the harder Apple will work to
make their product even better. Likewise Android fanboys should want iPhone to
be successful---- competition will keep these guys on their toes.

I say this looking at the blatantly Apple bias that floats on this site. Why
put down the other system? I prefer Android but think they're both great
phones. (I had a 3GS for awhile)

~~~
Samuel_Michon
"I say this looking at the blatantly Apple bias that floats on this site."

Interesting, given the upvoting behavior on HN suggests that there's a strong
Android preference. Maybe that can be explained by the fact that there are
currently more opportunities for _developers_ on the iOS, but a typical HN
_users_ might favor the perceived freedom an Android handset or jailbreaked
iPhone offers.

------
Xixi
Considering how much at&t seems to suck, this is hardly surprising. And indeed
Android seems to be a very US-centric thing so far.

Take France for instance, where all careers are selling the iPhone :

* iPhone : 2.25 million units currently in service

* Android : 220,000 units currently in service

That's a 10 to 1 ratio ! (as of April 2010, so pre iPhone 4 launch)

[http://www.geeketchic.fr/geek-blog/admob-android-vs-
iphone-o...](http://www.geeketchic.fr/geek-blog/admob-android-vs-iphone-
os.html)

Conclusion : study carefully your target market before deciding on which
platform to launch an app.

~~~
palish
You seem to be suggesting that the choice of AT&T was a bad one. How quickly
we forget that AT&T was the only carrier that would allow Apple to develop the
phone almost completely without influence. Verizon was choice #1, but they
refused to allow Apple to have the control it wanted, then issued some kind of
silly statement along the lines of "We felt that the user experience was
beyond our control with the kinds of demands Apple was asking for". Which is
true, but something Verizon just couldn't bear the thought of.

------
moultano
I'm just glad android seems to have passed the threshold beyond which
companies have to care about it. A good android app is becoming a necessary
part of any consumer cloud-based service (kindle, nook, etc.) just as a good
iphone app has been for a while.

------
bajsejohannes
If the movement between the user groups remain the same, then in 10 years
time, it will have stabilized on around 6% blackberry, 70% iphones, and 24%
android (ignoring everyone going to "other smartphone os")

(Finally I got to use Markov chains! Code here for anyone interested:
<http://codepad.org/cstzwXbG> )

~~~
Dn_Ab
Unfortunately I must say that this method is flawed. The are two key implicit
assumptions that break the whole thing. The lesser one first -

You are assuming that the sample you have taken is a good estimate of the true
probabilities. You have assumed that the probabilities will remain the same.
This latter assumption is the next problem.

you heard of the black swan concept? The future is predictable except for the
unpredictable parts.

I say this because I too have been thinking about this and wondering what kind
of model would be the least worst indicator since all predictors are poor the
longer the timespan as a ratio of stability of system in study. I am thinking
something inspired by the N body problem and swarm based optimization would be
cool to look at. Alas, I have not the time to pursue this.

------
tvon
I wonder how much of a dent the iPod Touch would put into the numbers if it
were counted.

On a related note, it seems an iPod Touch sized clone for Android would be a
worthwhile device for a company to make (especially if it fit in all those
iPod Touch running armbands). I hear news snippets here and there, but you'd
think there would be a worthy competitor at this point... (there could well be
one I'm not aware of, but a quick google didn't turn much up).

edit: Samsung YP-MB2 seems to be iPod Touch sized and "coming soon":
[http://androidcommunity.com/samsung-yp-mb2-poses-for-
photo-2...](http://androidcommunity.com/samsung-yp-mb2-poses-for-
photo-20100802/)

~~~
awad
I'm totally ignorant of the Android landscape but does it have a music player
than can rival the iPod app music + iTunes syncing of an iPod Touch?

~~~
sandipc
Definitely don't think any of the Android music apps are up to the level of
the iPhone's iPod app / iPod touch's music app. Apple's UI for that app is
beautiful.

\- a current android user

~~~
ZeroGravitas
Am I the only one annoyed by the "iPod" App on my iPhone? They really should
split that into multiple apps for podcasts, audiobooks, video, music etc. I
suppose it just mirrors the confusion of iTunes on the desktop which, despite
the name, does a bit of everything these days.

------
jacquesm
Of course it did, it simply had to. Now the question is whether the android
ecosystem can keep its users as good as the apple one can.

I sure hope so, but it definitely isn't a given. Android is a big step in the
right direction but there are still plenty of things that need fixing before
they can compete with apple on anything else but units shipped.

When developers have to seriously think about which platform to support first
you can say they've achieved parity. That may be quite a while though.

~~~
abstractbill
_When developers have to seriously think about which platform to support first
you can say they've achieved parity._

I agree we're not quite at that point, but we are getting close. We
(justin.tv) are putting some serious resources into Android development right
now - not as much as for iPhone, but still, I'd say we're now treating them as
_nearly_ equally important platforms.

~~~
jacquesm
That's because you're looking at android as a delivery medium, but not because
you make money of your applications right ?

~~~
abstractbill
Yes that's a fair point - for now at least Android and iPhone are both
strategically important to us, but not at all for the purposes of generating
revenue.

------
gregholland
Unfortunately, the Android Marketplace as well as the SDK still sucks for us
developers. Buggy and inconsistent behavior across different devices; Bad
performance (MotionEvent anyone?); The lack of paid apps in different
countries and the prevalence of spammy crapware apps on the unregulated
marketplace. I wonder if google will do anything to address these issues as
Android gain a wider audience. Otherwise I can see this as a hindrance to the
adoption of Android.

~~~
muhfuhkuh
I agree. I would care so much more about this _iff_, as a software developer,
I could capitalize on it. Looking at numbers from various posts and outlets,
iPhone (or even iPad) app sales are orders of magnitude larger than
equivalents on Android Market.

If I were a _device_ manufacturer, the "Free as in Everything" aspect of
Android is definitely alluring, as it saves from Symbian or WinMo royalties.
That's where it matters: to the Motorolas, HTCs, and (eventually) Nokias of
the world.

For a hacker doing software, though, it just doesn't come close to the App
Store as far as outlets for monetization.

Also this: [http://www.netmarketshare.com/operating-system-market-
share....](http://www.netmarketshare.com/operating-system-market-
share.aspx?qprid=9&qpcustom=iPhone&sample=34)

It looks like Apple gains market share in web usage, and doubles Android in
growth, according to the report. So, it looks like even though Android may
overtake iPhone in sales, the users don't often use one of its primary
features as a smartphone. Is it the browser experience or laggy hardware that
stymies the growth?

------
andreyf
I don't understand why people compare sales volume of iPhone to Android. Isn't
that kind of like comparing MacBook Pro sales to Windows sales? People should
either compare iPhones to Droids, or iOS devices to Android devices.

~~~
jonknee
The iPhone is the only mobile phone running iOS so the only way to do market
share for mobile phone operating systems means just counting the iPhone. If
you're doing laptop OS marketshare it makes sense to just count Apple's
laptops even though the same OS runs on other devices.

~~~
rimantas
Uhm. iPhone is the only phone running iOS, but there are other devices running
it too, so if you count instalations of iOS you should consider iPod touch and
iPad, if you count only iOS on iPhones then the remark is valid: it's
comparing apples to oranges.

~~~
jonknee
... Their are other devices running OS X too, but if we're talking OS market
share for laptops those devices don't get counted. They are comparing Android
phones vs. iOS phones. Perfectly legit. Apples to apples.

------
0ptr
It doesn't matter whether this is based on pre-iPhone4 data or not. Trend is
quite clear and there's simple logic behind it.

Apple has quite narrow market segment. They are making more money with less
customers which is exactly the right thing to do from company perspective.
However Android is gaining new markets with new form factors, different
pricing points etc. That's why it is inevitable.

------
hop
If you want a smartphone and are already with Verizon, T-Mobile or Sprint,
you're options are pretty much limited to Android. When the iPhone expands
carriers, probably next year when AT&T and Verizon move to faster LTE
networks, it will be a different story. Verizon currently has 91.2 million
customers and AT&T has 87 million.

~~~
josefresco
Will it? I'm not so sure. The few million left who don't have an iPhone aren't
enoungh to slow androids snowballing (with increasing speed) growth. For
consumers now, a full touchscreen smartphone is enough, they don't care what
OS it has. The ones that do are AT&T customers already.

The real question now that android is the 'windows' of the mobile world is
where will Win phone 7 fit in the landscape? Premium offering to compete with
Apple? Or a consumer OS like desktop windows that will go against Android

~~~
hop
When every Verizon store, kiosk, and multitude of resellers are able to
finally show the iPhone next to an Android phone, Apple will take a big slice
of Android's pie. Verizon has 90M subscribers and the cell phone buying cycle
is only 1.5 years - Apple will sell millions to Verizon customers.

------
niccolop
I suppose this isn't at all surprising based on the iPhone/At&t tie up.

It would be interesting to compare other countries where carriers haven't
locked up the iPhone (e.g. UK or France).

No doubt android is an excellent platform, but the barriers to obtaining an
iPhone seem relatively higher than android.

~~~
bad_user
> _No doubt android is an excellent platform, but the barriers to obtaining an
> iPhone seem relatively higher than android._

That's a feature of Android, not something that just happens because of
factors outside the control of Apple or Google.

~~~
el_chapitan
Actually, it is something outside of the control of Google. Admittedly, they
made the right choices to allow the OS to spread (I was going to say easier,
but really they allowed it to spread at all). This didn't mean, however, that
anyone else was going to pick it up and use it.

~~~
bad_user
Picking up Android is only a matter of how open and capable it is.

Developing your in-house mobile OS is not easy or cheap. Companies like
HTC/Motorola can't compete with Apple/RIM/Nokia only on hardware quality.

Most phones are Java ME enabled for that reason, but it's a shitty platform
and everybody knows it.

------
malkia
I have Android phone just because it has keyboard, and I didn't want to move
our family plan to AT&T (I'm with T-Mobile).

I still like the keyboard more, but I wish the phone was more like an iPhone.

------
dotcoma
OR: Apple selling close to 10% of all mobile phones in the US with just 2
models (iPhone 3GS and 4) without spending a penny on ads in a market they
entered only three years ago...

<http://www.dotcoma.it/2010/08/03/in-news-that-isnt.html>

------
known

        Android = OS
        iPhone = Gadget

------
ghb
Shouldn't the headline read "Android Sales Overtake iOS in the U.S."?

~~~
Samuel_Michon
No, because it didn't. The iPhone is only about half of iOS device sales.
Besides, there are no Android devices that compete with the iPod touch and the
iPad.

