

2011 Prediction #10: Apple Buys Time Warner Cable - rfreytag
http://www.cringely.com/2011/01/2011-prediction-10-apple-buys-time-warner-cable/

======
bluedevil2k
I think another quickly growing internet company did the same thing in 2000
and was never the same after. Buying Time Warner will become analogous to
invading Russia.

I'll throw out a good idea for Apple - buy Tivo. Price tag is right (around
$1B). Access to a TON of good IP. Access to good software they can build off
of and customize for Apple TV. Combine the good of Apple TV (streaming
services, iTunes integration), the good of Tivo (great user interface, good
hardware, apps), add an App Store...you might have a good product there.

~~~
brianbreslin
$1b seems awfully high for TiVo. I'd peg them at half that or less. Their
product although arguably superior to their competitors has been commoditized
to no end. How can people buy ticks when comcast or directv offer their DVr
"free"

~~~
umjames
I buy TiVos when I can get a lifetime subscription. One price, no recurring
monthly or yearly bills. This usually happens around Christmas and for older
models (Series 3 TiVo and earlier nowadays). Also, the box is mine.

I'm sure if I got a DVR from a cable or satellite provider, the monthly
service cost would be included in my bill for as long as I have the device (a
never-ending cost). I am essentially renting a DVR from the cable company. No
thanks.

------
MichaelApproved
As laughable as Microsoft buying Rimm. Why do people think these big companies
will spend all their money on one big "splash"?

There's a zero percent chance this will happen.

~~~
Jun8
OK, maybe not TW but the idea of Apple or Google buying a large content
company is not so far fetched. In fact, given how quickly the cable + content
guys grouped up and pretty much killed Google TV, I think the only way for iTV
or Google TV to succeed is if they can break the stronghold by buying one a TV
content company.

~~~
MichaelApproved
It would be one thing if TW were the only content provider out there but
they're not. If apple were to buy any media company the others would be less
likely to deal with them and start cutting them off. Apple creates products to
view content with, they don't create content themselves.

~~~
procyon
If apple were to buy TW and I am not saying Apple will, but if they do, the
market will be driven by customer demand. Enabling part of the market true
IPTV experience will start pressuring cable companies to open up. Since IPTV
is arguably superior technology customers will demand and in case when they
have choice will prefer true Apple TV like services over traditional cable.

At the right price point, buying a current content provide would turn out to
be a good move.

------
wriq
Why do people think Apple will make a huge acquisition? There biggest purchase
by far was NeXT for 400m back in '97 with PA Semi and Quattro coming in
2nd/3rd at ~275m. A 30 Billion dollar purchase doesn't seem at all in their
nature. Apple builds products and purchase companies as talent/ip acquisitions
to help them reach their goals.

~~~
smackfu
Because they aren't paying dividends and just building up mounds of cash.
Which is a pretty weird way to run a business.

~~~
MichaelApproved
Most of the big tech companies have massive amounts of cash. Sure some give a
dividend but its small amout and once you do that you stop being seen as
growth company.

------
lambda
Has Cringely ever made an accurate prediction? I've seen him linked to so many
times, and each time it's with some eye-rollingly ridiculous claim, that no
one ever seems to follow up on (or sometimes claims that are obvious to anyone
paying any attention at all, or so ill-specified that you can never really
call them right or wrong). I don't really understand why anyone links to him;
he's not a particularly interesting writer, and he doesn't have a very good
track record of making predictions or revealing anything that's not commonly
known.

------
brudgers
If Apple buys anyone big, it will be Disney. [prediction #1]

~~~
jfager
Why would they do that? Disney already does pretty much anything Apple asks
them to, and acquiring them would make Apple direct competitors with the other
media companies whose content fills out iTunes. The two companies have very
little overlap, so there's not much of a case for doing it to eliminate
competition or to make the joint operation more efficient. And Jobs already
sits on the board at Disney and owns a ton of shares, so where's his
motivation to push for the deal coming from, given that he already has a great
deal of power and money from the current setup without the day-to-day
headaches of managing a massive media company?

~~~
brudgers
I'm not betting on a $5 billion+ acquisition by Apple any time soon. But my
prediction is that Disney is the target IF Apple spends billions on a big
acquisition.

Apple would buy Disney for the same reason Ted Turner bought MGM/UA. If you
are going to be a media distribution company (which is where Apple is headed)
and you want total control (which Jobs always does), then owning content is
part of the strategy.

The fact that Jobs sits on the board and owns a bunch of stock is evidence of
his personal interest in Disney, not evidence against it. From a branding
standpoint there is no better combination than Apple and Disney - don't be
like Cringly and live between the Atlantic and Pacific - think worldwide. Jobs
isn't insane enough to spend billions on a US cable network just to shut it
down on the off chance that everyone in North Carolina will start using
MobileMe 2.0.

BTW, Owning Disney would allow Jobs to dictate terms to other content
distribution channels.

~~~
barredo
> then owning content is part of the strategy.

Why doesn't Apple buy the companies behind the best iPad/iPhone apps to make
them iOS-only?

I mean, it would make sense in a way, and in the "Console Wars" console-makers
have been doing this since the Nintendo-Sega days, buying studios and making
exclusive games.

~~~
brudgers
They don't buy them because: 1\. iOS apps don't cost Apple anything to
develop. 2\. iOS app sales provide Apple with a 30% margin. 3\. The
distribution of iOS apps is completely under Apple's control. 4\. They can
always incorporate any important functionality into iOS. 5\. iOS apps aren't
content.

~~~
endtime
>iOS apps aren't content.

Under what reasonable definition of content is this true? Angry Birds and
Plants vs Zombies sure feel like content to me.

~~~
brudgers
Does someone collect a license fee every time they are presented?

