
Australia's high-speed rail dream leaves a bitter taste - lelf
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/05/too-good-to-be-true-australias-high-speed-rail-dream-leaves-a-bitter-taste
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discordance
Sydney <-> Melbourne (705km) is the second busiest domestic air route in the
world, with 9 million passengers in 2017 [0]. It definitely deserves a high
speed rail link. Here's hoping it doesn't get caught up in some sort of greasy
land/water buy back scam [1].

0:
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_busiest_passenger_ai...](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_busiest_passenger_air_routes)
1: [https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-are-water-
buyba...](https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-are-water-buybacks-and-
how-did-we-get-here-20190423-p51gla.html)

~~~
rayiner
A high speed rail line doesn’t even recoup its carbon footprint (I.e. the
carbon output from construction outweighs the savings from fewer airplane
trips) until 10 million passengers per year:
[https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2011/11/how-green-
hig...](https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2011/11/how-green-high-speed-
rail/492/)

~~~
fulafel
That references a study on a scenario where 10% of the distance is in tunnels.
That's a lot of tunnel boring. Is the Sydney-Melbourne flat or hilly?

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supernova87a
Well, aside from any dramas with the financing history of this Sydney-
Melbourne link, the distance is not the most favorable. People (those who
would pay / support such a service when it comes down to it) will generally
choose rail versus air based on the time city center to city center.

Sydney-Melbourne is 900 km. This is beyond the outer edge of where rail versus
air is highly competitive. By several hours.

Paris-London (500km) is about break even for the air/rail time tradeoff, and
there rail takes about 50% share. Barcelona-Madrid is a bit further (600km),
and has done really well also although that's a bit of a special case.

San Francisco-Los Angeles is 600km and you can see how poorly that project is
going -- which by the way is what this Australian project has the similar
feeling of.

So by the time you get to Sydney-Melbourne, you're talking 900 km and > 3
hours difference between the air/rail options and really not favored. Maybe
Canberra in the middle helps a little, but the volume of traffic of people
choosing this option is just not there.

~~~
quentindemetz
Beijing to Shanghai is 1200km and and the high-speed link there seems to
thrive just fine

~~~
lovemenot
I imagine it depends on the number and scale of existing intermediate cities.
The proposed route in Australia passes through nothing of note.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
The Beijing to Shanghai HSR is direct. But the same tracks support other lines
that stop at other cities along the way.

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this_is_not_you
Episode 3 of Utopia?

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utopia_(Australian_TV_series)#...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utopia_\(Australian_TV_series\)#Season_1_\(2014\))

~~~
shalmanese
One of the best TV shows I've ever watched. It was available on Netflix as
"Dreamland" but seems it's been removed.

~~~
omegabravo
next season will be broadcast in two weeks, I never saw it on Netflix. I did
consume it off ABC as soon as it was online though

~~~
raxxorrax
Awsome. Also of the opinion it is one of the best series in recent times and I
thought there wouldn't be a next season. I wonder why it was released under a
different name on Netflix.

Although I must say I like the ending of the series very much. Do you know
where it will air?

~~~
dagw
_I wonder why it was released under a different name on Netflix._

There already existed a UK show called Utopia, so it was renamed for its
initial UK release. The new name was then subsequently used for all its
international releases.

~~~
raxxorrax
Hm, maybe that explains why so many people didn't know what I was talking
about when I mentioned the series. I think the series was a bit of a niche,
but outside those I watched the series with, nobody seems to have ever heard
of it. Already thought of a conspiracy...

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lnsru
I read this article as a promise of an utopian future. The good guy comes,
builds high-speed railroad and cities on the side without government’s money.
Might be good chapter for some modern bible. It is just too good to be true.
There is longer Forbes reading about building new cities and it’s not going to
happen without will and government’s resources:
[https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2017/12/12/why-
hund...](https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2017/12/12/why-hundreds-of-
completely-new-cities-are-being-built-around-the-world/)

~~~
hutzlibu
Did you read the same article as me? I read, that the good guy failed to
mention his bankruptcy, while promising everybody, everything. So best case,
someone with a vision, but no cash and crossing the line, worst case, serious
scam to draw investment money.

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davidhyde
As long as you get local firms, local people and local resources to build your
new railway it doesn’t matter what it costs. It’s net free too the country.
Look at the massive high speed rail network China has built in the last
decade. Yet politicians will outsource such projects to other countries to
“save costs”.

~~~
benj111
What are the opportunity costs though? At the extreme you could have 100% of
your citizenry building houses, you can't then grow food, or build cars, etc,
etc.

Second, unless your economy is completely cut off from the outside world
you're going to get leakage away. The builder you're paying to build houses is
eventually going to want to show off his wealth by buying an iphone, or some
champagne, or a Ferrari.

To look at a more practical example lets look at the wood industry, and lets
say that Australia's wood industry is already large enough to actually absorb
this increase. The wood industry has the option of selling around the world,
but this development _has_ to buy from you. So you can sell them all the
rubbish stuff that can't be sold internationally. So what then? The government
doesn't want shoddy Australian houses being built so restricts exports of
wood. But now the supply of wood products doesn't really match the supply and
you've got teak being made into OSB, and your houses are made with high
quality Australian wood, but your wood industry has gone down the toilet
because the prices paid for OSB are nowhere near the prices paid for solid
lumps of teak.

Trade is good. It makes everyone _on balance_ better off, what you propose is
cutting off trade from the rest of the world, it's never going to end well.

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growlist
Apart from anything else, they're going to need a lot more water from
somewhere.

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Pete-Codes
Seems dodgy if Clara has no offices etc.

I didn't realise the plan was to build new cities though to fund it. The
trains in Oz are terrible so hopefully they come up with some high speed rail
project down the east coast.

~~~
jboles
It's not so much the trains that are terrible as the 1800s-era track geometry
that is terrible. There are mountains all the way down the east coast; any
high-speed line is going to be (a) necessarily built inland and separate from
any existing line and (b) phenomenally expensive.

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ggm
The finance model invites speculation on land. Then future rateable income
attracts government which wants the outcome and needs the money. It's really
hard to resist calls for "if you build it they will come" especially with
skyrocketing house costs in the big cities. Thing is.. it's a bit of a shell
game and I cannot stop thinking about ghost towers in China

~~~
astrange
A few too many buildings is not a serious issue.

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kleiba
Conan O'Brien argued that what they really need is a Monorail.

