

Can we predict the future using a temporal version of the Copernican principle? [pdf] - amichail
http://info.phys.unm.edu/papers/2000/Caves2000a.pdf

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koolmoe
Upvoted for this mathematician's-gauntlet-throwing snippet near the end:

"I sent an e-mail on 21 October 1999 and again on 2 December 1999 to my
department's most comprehensive e-mail alias, which includes faculty, staff,
and graduate students, requesting information on pet dogs. The responses were
compiled and checked for accuracy on 6 December; a notarized list of the 24
dogs, including each dog's name, date of birth, and breed, and the caretaker's
name, was deposited in my departmental personnel file on 21 December 1999.
Gott's rule predicts that each dog will survive to twice its present age with
probability 1/2. For each of the 6 dogs above 10 years old on the list, I am
offering to bet Gott $1,000 US, at odds of 2:1 in his favor, that the dog will
not survive to twice its age on 3 December 1999. The reason for weighting the
odds in Gott's favor is to test his belief in his own predictions: given the
odds, his rule says that his expected gain, at $1,000 per bet, is $6,000;
moreover, the probability that he will be a net loser (by losing five or more
of the six bets) is 7/64=0.109."

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amichail
Here's the New Yorker article mentioned in the paper:

[http://www.newyorker.com/archive/1999/07/12/1999_07_12_035_T...](http://www.newyorker.com/archive/1999/07/12/1999_07_12_035_TNY_LIBRY_000018591)

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arto
The subject being discussed is better-known as the Doomsday Argument, btw:

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument>

