
Dear Nokia fans: you’re nuts - bdfh42
http://scobleizer.com/2011/02/11/dear-nokia-fans-youre-nuts/
======
sethg
To paraphrase Churchill, Nokia’s deal with Microsoft was the worst strategy
they could have come up with, except for all the available alternatives. It’s
a partnership born out of mutual desperation. Nokia needs an OS that doesn’t
suck to develop on (unlike Symbian) and that they can actually ship (unlike
Meego). Microsoft needs a revenue stream other than their Windows/Office
duopoly. Thus, they need each other.

Why isn’t Nokia going with Android? Because Google doesn’t _need_ anything
that Nokia can offer; Google will be happy to count their ad-clicks while
Samsung, Motorola, HTC, et al. drive down one another’s profit margins.

(Disclaimer: I work for Nokia and despise Microsoft as much as any self-
respecting Linux geek, so I think my biases cancel one another out.)

~~~
TomOfTTB
In some ways you are right but as a Nokia employee you should know Nokia's put
a decent amount of effort into embracing an "open" philosophy. In fact, the
make up and goals of MeeGo are not all that different from Android (Open
source OS run by a consortium of companies working to be the defacto standard
on all kinds of devices). This marketing push towards openness goes all the
way back to the decision to open source Symbian.

So for them to now do a 180 and embrace a proprietary operating system from
Microsoft flies in the face of everything they'd been selling to their
developers

------
TomOfTTB
It takes some impressive cognitive dissonance to say this...

 _So, should Nokia have gone Android? No way. That takes them through a real
commoditization (IE, non differentiated) minefield. One that Nokia execs
aren’t smart enough to get through._

and this...

 _Nothing matters in this world more than apps. Write that on your forehead.
Write that on the mirror on your bathroom wall. Write that on your car
windshield. Whatever it will take so you remember it._

in the same post (a post praising Nokia for picking the platform with
virtually no apps).

The rest of his points would be decent if Microsoft were in any way committing
to Nokia. But they're not so all those platform advantages are spread across
other hardware competitors.

Yes it will be 8 hardware competitors instead of the 40 they'd have to fight
on Android. But Android would at least give them the apps and if Nokia really
does have top notch hardware people they could find a way to perform in the
Android market.

~~~
wyuenho
While your logic is right, I think you have missed the point of the post.
While apps are certainly important, differentiation is probably going to be a
bigger factor because you only need a relatively small number of killer apps
to kick start an ecosystem. Just think of how the iPhone AppStore got started.
To this day I'm still using Bump and Urbanspoon. I think Nokia is betting on
that they can monetize from an ecosystem that they can control with a higher
profit margin, then just be a small fish in a big pond with not a whole lot of
control and thus ways to make money.

Remember what Elop said in the memo, the enemies are not fighting with devices
and apps, they are fighting with the entire ecosystem. Nokia doesn't have its
own now, and they need to create one. If they jump onto the Andriod ship, what
exactly can' they monetize from the ecosystem that Google can't even milk?

This is a really big gamble on Nokia's part, if it works it's going to pay off
big time. Palm tried that and failed but hey at least they got an exit to HP.
At worst Nokia is just going to repeat that and got folded in MS. What makes
you think going Android will end better for Nokia? I wouldn't underestimate 2
desperate turkeys with beaks.

------
maukdaddy
Dear HN Submitters: No more scobleizer blog posts!

~~~
bdfh42
Best post he has written for a long time - catches the Nokia/MS deal
absolutely right.

------
CodeMage
It's interesting to see that Scoble puts ESR's post in the same sack as the
rest of the "nuts", yet doesn't do much to refute it. It's almost as if he
read only the title.

~~~
nobody_nowhere
The ESR post has no basis in reality. The announcement will "split nokia in
half"? How does he think it's structured right now? Nokia is split sixteen
different ways inside already, it's a total mess of competing agendas and
technologies.

~~~
CodeMage
Eric's point is that Nokia's move does not do anything to address this and
might even make it worse.

------
brudgers
Scoble misses an important point about Nokia logistics. Nokia doesn't do all
its manufacturing in China (my Nokia was made in Finland). This removes a lot
of the uncertainty around evolving political, economic and trade
relationships.

