
Climate Change Predictions Have Suddenly Gone Catastrophic. This Is Why - nwrk
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/9393jd/climate-change-predictions-have-suddenly-gone-catastrophic-this-is-why
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foxyv
The difficulty in simulating any non-linear system like clouds, climate, and
weather is that it will either tell you what you want to hear, or exactly what
your empirical data points to. The system can literally do ANYTHING. The only
option is to create an array of probable states and look for the one that is
more likely than the others.

At a large scale we have some metastable states that are kinda synced to some
large linear input. But for all our predictions, the math says we could be
experiencing 200C by September, and -80C by December.

The only reason to believe that these states are unlikely is they haven't
happened in the past. At the same time, there hasn't been a carbon dump into
the atmosphere at this scale so consistently for the entirety of our recorded
history. So we are kind of entering unknown territory.

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RickJWagner
I predict the predictions will remain very dire until December 2020. Then they
will back off, probably with little note of explanation.

The predictions will again become shrill in February of 2024. Then they will
back off in December.

The predictions will again become louder in February of 2028...

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tmikaeld
TLDR; Clouds reflect light depending on the amount and how high they are, this
contribute to greenhouse effects. Apparently, this wasn't part of the models
before.

