
Toyota to Invest $1B in AI and Robotics R&D - mcspecter
http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/industrial-robots/toyota-to-invest-1-billion-in-ai-and-robotics-rd
======
ilurk
Back in the 80s and 90s there was a lot of media and memes (as in ideas, not
the funny images) that Japan was the land of robots. Even a Japanese version
of the human evolution chart where the last stage was a mecha.

But it seems to me that it has lost the race. And I don't know why.

South Korea robotics is as advanced as Japan's. And Google just bought all the
best people/companies that were out there.

The same thing happened with smartphones. Japan had the best smartphones a
decade or two ago. Blazing internet speed. TV on your mobile. Connection to
the washing machine (IoT anyone?).

Yet it lost it to iPhone and even Android. Sony is unable to compete with
Samsung.

This is purely my idea on things. I could be completely wrong as I don't have
numbers from some of my conceptions.

Would also love to known the opinion of someone who had lived in Japan on why
they can't; well, scale outside of Japan (english language bottleneck?).
@patio11 ???

~~~
cpprototypes
The common factor is lack of respect for software. They did very well when
focused on just hardware with simple software. For example the hardware part
of robotics and very advanced features phones. But the next stage requires
advanced software such as AI and the iPhone. This is an issue not just in
Japan, but Asia in general. Their history had a lot of hardware success, but
no major software success. In the US there is both Intel and Microsoft, major
success in both hardware and software.

This is actually a competitive advantage of software engineering in the US. We
have a history and culture of respecting software. This is passed down
generation to generation and allowed more success like Google and Facebook.

In Asia, software is a low status job with little pay and status.

~~~
raverbashing
More to the point, to have success in software development you need:

\- Independently minded people (incompatible with Japanese culture)

\- Flatter hierarchy (kind of relates to the previous point, and incompatible
with Japanese culture)

For simpler software, this is easier to overcome (Super Mario levels of
software complexity, let's say)

Steve Jobs didn't come up with the iPhone. He let people come up with great
ideas then filtered them.

In Japan, the structure goes: "What does the boss want?". And if the boss
doesn't know, they will go with the most conservative choice possible.

This set up is never going to win prizes.

~~~
my_username_is_
Can you explain why a flatter hierarchy is necessary for software development?

My background is in hardware engineering, and this strikes me as surprising
(although something I haven't ever given much thought to). What about software
makes it incompatible with hierarchy? Don't a lot of traditional software
companies have a sort of hierarchy?

~~~
raverbashing
Don't confuse lack of hierarchy with flatter hierarchy.

> Don't a lot of traditional software companies have a sort of hierarchy?

Yes, see what kind of crap they produce.

Of course, not all software companies, but the ones that really innovate can't
survive certain environments

> What about software makes it incompatible with hierarchy?

The sheer level of independence that every part needs.

In a hardware project you pick your parts (you have some requirements, some
limitations in size, power, vendor, etc so it might be a choice between a
handful of parts), then put it on a PCB, solve placing, routing, EM
compatibility, etc. It's complicated, but you don't have too many people doing
that. And more importantly, your boss knows more or less about everything and
if he doesn't believe it there are hard constraints that serve as guiding
(power consumption, EM emission, performance, etc)

Good? Now, you want to build the software for the iPhone. Or for the
Macintosh, same thing

Development is separated in many areas (design, base system, user APIs,
drivers, etc)

And the overlap between areas is _significant_. You need information flowing
freely so you can come up with the best solutions (this is not 'design by
committee')

You also need _independence_ and not justify every tiny decision (and why
didn't you go with the 'safe' solution).

This is the complete opposite of what happens in Japanese work culture

[http://www.hierarchystructure.com/japanese-business-
hierarch...](http://www.hierarchystructure.com/japanese-business-hierarchy/)

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onion2k
Whenever a company writes a press release with a large _sounding_ number in it
my first question is "Is that a lot?". I have no idea how much it costs to run
a robotics lab. As this is over the next five years, what would an average of
$200m/year actually buy you? Is that a team of 50 very clever people working
on cutting edge stuff, or is it 5 interns and a really expensive patent
lawyer?

Headline numbers are designed to appeal to our "Crumbs, I wish I was a
billionaire!" instincts, but without the context of what's being invested in
and the domain knowledge of how much the industry typically spends, this could
be awesome or it could be entirely non-newsworthy. I don't know.

~~~
csours
To give some context, a new automotive assembly plant could cost around a
billion[1]; or an old plant could be modernized with a billion[2] -- It is
well within the realm of a normal capital expenditure of an auto company.

Industrial Automation is more expensive than you may imagine. A robot arm may
be 100k to 200k or even more (hard to cite as prices are never listed on the
internet); you also have to have a controller (PLC) and all of the associated
sensors and connections.

We already have heavy duty robots capable of high precision positioning; the
area for expansion / improvement is in making these cheaper, and in "Internet
of Things" style automation.

Modern factories are heavily automated in the body welding processes and paint
application.

The only area of the plant unconquered by robotics is General Assembly, where
all the fiddly bits are put on - wire harness, carpet pad, carpet, etc. Robots
are famously bad at handling bendy things. [3]

1\. [http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-auto-makers-are-building-
new...](http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-auto-makers-are-building-new-
factories-in-mexico-not-the-u-s-1426645802) 2\.
[http://www.wfaa.com/story/news/local/tarrant-
county/2015/07/...](http://www.wfaa.com/story/news/local/tarrant-
county/2015/07/14/gm-to-announce-1-billion-investment-at-arlington-
plant/30139651/) 3\.
[http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/05/19/407736307/robot...](http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/05/19/407736307/robots-
are-really-bad-at-folding-towels)

Disclaimer - I used to work at Arlington Assembly, and still work for GM. Any
opinions are my own only.

~~~
oldmanjay
I guess you can disclaim speaking for your employer, but I don't get why you'd
disclaim your credentials.

~~~
csours
Suggest a better wording?

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martythemaniak
I suspect their heavy bet on hydrogen will sink them long before they see any
returns from AI and Robotics.

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dfcab
So they can invest $1B in this but not fix the spaghetti code in their cars
that causes unintended acceleration? Priorities!

~~~
ryanpetrich
Perhaps they're doing both?

~~~
dfcab
Hope so

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eachro
This is great to hear. I wonder if they're pumping some of this money into
TTI-C as part of this initiative.

