
Seattle lab uncovered coronavirus outbreak only after defying federal regulators - btilly
https://theweek.com/speedreads/901405/seattle-lab-uncovered-washingtons-coronavirus-outbreak-only-after-defying-federal-regulators
======
btilly
The plural of anecdote is not data, but here is an anecdote that should give
pause.

Yesterday I took my sick daughter to a hospital to see a doctor with a fever,
cough and sore throat. We were screened for strep, told it was viral and sent
home with no further testing. Talking to my ex (an urgent care doctor) she
said that she is still trying to find out how she can even _get_ a test for
patients of hers who fit the symptoms for COVID-19.

This is in Orange County, CA. Which has only 5 confirmed cases, but lies
between Los Angeles and San Diego. Both with known community spread. I'm now
more amazed that doctors in Los Angeles and San Diego were able to get tests
to verify community spread than I am confident that Orange County does not.

There is a lot of theater around COVID-19. You can't even show up for a
hospital visit without being asked whether or not you have the symptoms for
coronavirus. But the show of looking for symptoms combined with the failure to
follow up when you find them makes me think that it is mostly theater. We are
taking lots of action to make you aware that we are containing the spread, but
we are also avoiding finding out any potential bad news that we don't want to
hear about.

Going forward I am calling this what it is. "Public health theater."

~~~
HumblyTossed
We're at war. War against the "foreign" coronavirus. But instead of fighting
the war, we're sticking our fingers in our ears and shouting "lalalalalala!"
because for some reason, lower numbers helps certain people politically.

It is criminal.

------
bart_spoon
Among the eye-opening deficiencies across our efforts to contain the disease,
the most stupefying is the the inability to conduct adequate testing. It would
appear there is a variety of factors at play, including red tape, bureaucracy,
logistical failure, and incompetent decision making. But it really has been
shocking at how utterly disastrous this aspect of the response has been.
Especially so given that the entity appearing deserving most of the blame for
this particular problem is the CDC, which I think many of us considered
unimpeachable up until now.

It's striking how the hubris and organizational failure in the decision making
process developing these tests seems to mimic some of the fiascos that occur
in the tech industry, though in hindsight I don't know why any large
organization wouldn't be susceptible.

~~~
HumblyTossed
The White House wouldn't let the WHO tests be used. They also delayed allowing
new tests to be developed.

I'm sure the CDC is to blame for some of this, but the WH is more so.

~~~
jfnixon
Cite, please. The FDA and CDC bureaucracies are the groups hewing to the
Business As Usual rule following. No need for the WH to reject WHO tests, the
FDA is happy to fill that role.

The WH is ultimately responsible for the FDA/CDC, but if the Cabinet level
needs to intervene to get the massive Federal government acting with urgency
to this sort of threat, we should eliminate Civil Service protections and give
Agency heads a bigger stick pour encourager les autres.

------
archi42
Not much better here: You're only tested for the virus if you had contact with
someone who has previously been tested positive. That's the policy. A
colleague comes back from an conference (embedded systems, international
attendees,...) and develops symptoms the next week - but because no-one at the
conference was a confirmed positive case, he's not tested (just sent home, no
quarantine). I'm now also in home office, but developed symptoms on the last
day at the office (not saying it's corona, more likely my slight cold just
spiked randomly).

I understand it's unlikely and not everyone who has a cold needs to be tested
[-> no need to test me], there is just not enough capacity. But missing a
single case like these conference-goers wreaks real havoc when combined with
that policy... Well, at least the number of infected in the state stayed at
14/1M the last few days. Not sure how that's possible with exponential spread
and the first general containment measures only starting next week (though
today it "finally" increased to 29).

~~~
Svip
Where is here? The Danish government has moved from testing people with
symptoms and people returning from high risk areas, to just testing people
with symptoms. And encouraging those with mild symptoms to avoid calling
hotlines, rather focusing on those who have severe symptoms, since the
government no longer believes it can contain the spread.

~~~
huffmsa
As they should. Most people will be okay following the same protocol as they
would the flu.

Stay hydrated, keep your fever down, relax. If your fever is uncontrollable
and you're having trouble breathing, you need more serious attention.

"Testing" and figuring out that the cause of your symptoms is/ is not
SARS2-CoV doesn't change the course of treatment. There's no wonder drug.

~~~
archi42
The difference is in the quarantine: If I have to assume it's SARS2-CoV, I
don't leave the house, my partner should stay at home as well because she's
most likely also infected by now; also we need to get someone to bring us
supplies some time the next week before ours run out. We just had that very
drill a month ago due to a viral infection (medication only eased symptoms,
all we had to sit it out and follow the usual hygienic/no-social-contacts
rules not infect others).

Question is: What's the threshold? Can I trust external data or do I need to
assume it's too imprecise?

Now if I knew that I'm most likely not infected (-> potential importers
tested) I would still stay at home (in home office now anyway) and reduce
social contact, but I could get supplies for family/friends who are
quarantined. If I knew I wasn't infected prior to staying at home (-> everyone
tested), and if I started developing symptoms, I would know that it's highly
unlikely that I was infected and could thus reduce the load on the
doctor/hospital (edit: I have "respiratory precondition", hence it seems I
can't just say "well, I'm young and healthy, worst case I sleep it out").

------
gmichnikov
The NYT article linked in this article has a lot more, posted here:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22542662](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22542662)

~~~
34679
The NYT article is behind a paywall.

~~~
samsolomon
Coronavirus coverage is no longer behind a paywall for the NYT. They've made
it free for everyone.

[https://www.nytimes.com/news-event/coronavirus](https://www.nytimes.com/news-
event/coronavirus)

~~~
34679
That may be, but when I click on the NYT link for the article, I get the
following: [https://imgur.com/aionwnv](https://imgur.com/aionwnv)

Not technically a paywall, but certainly a wall.

------
tmaly
What happens to all of the other people who need surgery if hospitals face a
thundering hurd problem when thousands of people find out they have COVID-19?

I am on the fence with knowing or not knowing. The lack of information is
causing panic buying. I went to Wholefoods this morning and people are
cleaning out the shelves. They are buying stuff they would not normally buy.
The butcher told be when they order 100 cases from a distributor they are only
getting 50 or less. This panic buying is really creating a problem. If shelves
go empty and stay empty, what happens?

~~~
jfnixon
The vast majority of infections are mild. Roughly 15% require medical
intervention (beyond self-quarantine), and of that, less than 1 in 3 require
ICU care. 100K infections is roughly 15K medical intervention, with 5K in the
ICU.

------
notacoward
When this is over, there will be a list of heroes who helped make this less
bad than it could have been. A lot of scientists are going to be on that list
- including Dr. Chu, the people who sequenced and characterized the virus, the
people who developed medications and vaccines, etc. Some will be governors and
mayors and health directors who also defied the national government to take
stronger measures than that government was recommending. Still others will be
doctors and epidemiologists on the front lines, physical therapists helping
people recover, industrial engineers and logistics specialists who increase
supply of necessities, etc.

I regret that I don't know many of the names, even those who have already made
noteworthy contributions. (Feel free to add some.) My real point is that, as
we stew in our collective fear/anxiety, we should also take solace in the fact
that this situation is also bringing out the _absolute best_ in a great many
people. Think of them.

------
WaxProlix
A possibly better source here [https://theweek.com/speedreads/901405/seattle-
lab-uncovered-...](https://theweek.com/speedreads/901405/seattle-lab-
uncovered-washingtons-coronavirus-outbreak-only-after-defying-federal-
regulators)

Mynorthwest is sort of an AM radio/crackpot theories/nasty racist comments
section kind of place. Some of their articles (and this seems to be one) are
solid, but as a rule it's a highly suspect source of news.

On topic: Hard to imagine how much more fucked we'd be if we hadn't sampled
and found the virus for another 2 weeks or whatever. Good on these guys, just
another way that the flu project is paying off up here.

~~~
throw7337
The week seems okish. I love article how Senegal in Africa can have test
results in 4 hours, and now they develop handheld device for testing

Not sure if it is real or parody.

------
claudeganon
Thankfully so because this likely forced officials hands to take stronger
action. Unfortunately, sick people, including those with direct COVID-19
exposure, are still being refused tests:

[https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/us/coronavirus-testing-
ch...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/us/coronavirus-testing-
challenges.html)

------
huffmsa
She broke HIPPAA and a variety of other laws regarding patient consent.

We shouldn't throw the rulebook out the window during a panic. That's how we
ended up with the TSA and Snowden in exile.

Congratulations nonetheless, Dr Chu.

~~~
bart_spoon
It is apparent that the rulebook as it stands is perhaps the largest factor in
impeding the ability to respond to this crisis, so yes, at least some of the
rulebook clearly needs to be thrown out.

~~~
huffmsa
I don't disagree. So call your congressman and tell him you want it changed

------
cryptica
It's possible that the government had to make sure that the Coronavirus would
take hold in the US first. Otherwise the Fed would not have had a sufficiently
good excuse to justify their $1.5 trillion cash injection into the financial
system.

~~~
shadowgovt
[citation needed]

~~~
cryptica
Citations require studies. Studies require funding. Funding requires
institutional support. These kinds of accusations against institutions are not
fundable; does that mean they're not worth discussing?

Speculation is better than silence because there are gaps in the system which
can easily be exploited by institutions to serve their own interests.

~~~
shadowgovt
In an era where people have demonstrated an inability to responsibly fact-
check for themselves, I think it's actually an open question whether
speculation is better than silence (depending on what forum one is operating
in).

