
WSJ: Amazon Testing Smartphone - ONE37
http://one37.net/blog/2012/7/11/wsj-amazon-testing-smartphone.html
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ajays
The smartphone is the "browser" of the 21st century. Remember the old days
when tons of browsers were coming out? The situation is going to become like
that. By controlling the phone, you control the user's access to the 'net. You
decide which search engine s/he uses, which maps site, which IM client, etc.
You give prominence to your buttons (shopping in this case), while
denying/delaying competitors.

The whole browser war is going to play out over the next year or two, this
time via smartphones.

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programminggeek
I am actually looking forward to an Amazon phone. I think the media
consumption model is a good one for these devices. Amazon could easily become
the #2 or #3 Android phone maker behind Samsung and HTC. Also, in the US,
Amazon could do something like Straight Talk SIM and partner with AT&T,
Verizon, or Sprint and offer an "unlimited" talk/text/data plan for $45 a
month that runs direct through Amazon.com. They could even throw in Amazon
Prime on top or maybe for an extra $5 a month. Then for $50 a month you get
phone, internet, movie streaming, book rental, fast shipping...

That could be very compelling.

~~~
hell0_th3r3
i'm more pessimistic. i'm expecting something along the lines of a smaller
kindle fire....useless unless you are getting amazon e-content.

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wittekm
Ignoring the news for a second - am I the only one who thinks this dark grey
on slightly lighter grey makes for a terrible color scheme for reading?

~~~
jmduke
Dark grey on slighty lighter grey? Try light grey on slightly lighter grey.

The Readability (<http://www.readability.com>) bookmarklet comes in handy.

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deveac
Ok. They are testing a smartphone.

What is Amazon going to do here? I look at Palm, and saw an awesome OS that
rivaled (at the time) iOS in many ways. Yeah, the hardware was lacking (this
article cites Amazon shopping China and analogous hardware concerns, though
they couldn't be as bad I would hope), but in the end, it was a platform that
could not attract developers among other things. Didn't happen under HP. Look
at what has happened to RIM, another platform sans developers. It's the same
concern you hear repeated over and over again with Microsoft. Can they,
_somehow_ manage to make a convincing case to developers en masse?

And looking at Amazon's app store and forked Android strategy, all I've seen
with their Kindle platform is yet another tablet without developers.

I know they are all trying, but I have to wonder when one of them are going to
come up with some strategy that is so out of the box and different that we all
have collectively no choice but to say "Damn. That is exciting. This could get
them in the game."

I think that the value-add for someone else trying to get in the game has to
almost come outside of broad app offerings. They need to avoid the 'chicken-
egg' scenario by breaking in from the side.

For me, one of the little bouts of genius that Apple implemented on iOS was
that you could not download completely free apps unless you had a valid credit
card loaded into their system (yeah, I know you can get around this by
purchasing a 5$ gift card). Believe me when I say that I told myself that I
would _never_ actually buy an app from the Appstore, as free software covered
essentially all core functions and services in some form or another. But with
the mandatory credit card filing, breaking that promise was _effortless_ , and
break it I did. Many times. With a tap.

Amazon and Apple both have their customers connected to their stores, and they
both have terrific stores that are best in class, but while Apple sells media,
Amazon goes one better and sells real world goods. All goods. Everything you
can possible think of.

I think Amazon could benefit from this in a big way if they play their cards
right.

I didn't know this for years, but Amazon has a service that lets you set a
recurring schedule of products to be delivered at specific times, -could be
every week, month, etc. I thought "How cool, -I can completely eliminate my
trips to Target and just have all my non-perishable goods delivered to my back
door every month or two." Cleaning supplies, paper towels, shampoo, -you name
it.

It solves a problem for people, but it is hidden and not obvious or intuitive.
I think it would be at least interesting if Amazon took a service like this
right to the user and made it a prominent feature of their phone. What if,
part of setting up your Kindle phone you were prompted to set up your shopping
list, or at least had the option in a not to intrusive way? It wouldn't have
to be turned on, but with the push of the button the users knew they were
turning on a stream of goods, already effortlessly connected to their credit
card, that would eliminate a massive percentage of their shopping. What if
there was a grocery list app baked in (not a generic shopping app, but one
tailored to an IRL behavior specifically) where you could just jump to your
products and smash the 'send now' button when you run out of something and it
arrives the next day.

Having the phone be the hub that eliminates a lot of your shopping and manages
how you do that could be a big selling point if done right. While Amazon would
love to reap the benefits of more online sales, they shouldn't treat that as
the goal, -the whole experience would have to be focused on solving a problem
for consumers and providing a value, which would be eliminating as much time
spent on shopping IRL. It could be hard to do, but these are the kinds of
value adds that a player like Amazon might need to execute, and execute
exceedingly well, in order to get the platform beloved by consumers enough to
make developers one day sit up and pay attention.

Maybe it's a terrible idea, but I just have this nagging feeling that new
players are gonna keep failing unless they find a hook that leverages some
other asset. I think Microsoft has a similar opportunity with their phone and
the xBox, and while I know they see it too, it remains to be seen whether or
not they will exploit it to the hilt.

~~~
saturdaysaint
You're overlooking Amazon's go-to weapon: price.

Price is tricky - you can already get free subsidized phones - so I'll be
interested to see what they do here. They'll really need to work with a
carrier (Virgin? Cricket? Sprint?) to offer a breakthrough value. In any case,
I don't think they'll put something on the market that doesn't have attention
grabbing value.

I don't think the OS is that important. %90 of people use computers much like
they used them 10 years ago, and we're nearing that point with smartphones. If
it has a browser, e-mail, a camera, maps, and good hardware most people will
be happy.

The OS wasn't the Pre's problem - it had questionable hardware (slow, tiny
screen) and was attached to a dorky brand. If it had a 4" screen and said
"Sony" on the back, it could have been a hit in 2008.

~~~
deveac
" I don't think they'll put something on the market that doesn't have
attention grabbing value."

I would submit that having attention grabbing value isn't remotely enough. It
has to have _actual_ value, hopefully in a way that goes beyond price. The
Kindle Fire is a perfect example. They won't say how many they have sold, but
at the end of the day, it yet another Android tablet with a crappy, laggy
software experience and an App store that lacks broad developer support. You
_can_ argue that it does provide good price value.

"I don't think the OS is that important. "

I don't agree. For a myriad of reasons the OS is important. You can't just
have email, a camera, a map, and good hardware, but rather you need to have an
ecosystem and content delivery machine (at the very least good partnerships).
And how this ecosystem is executed on every level is crucial. Not only that,
but none of that even matters if you don't have developer support for apps.
Sans that, your platform is going to die eventually, if it ever even scales to
begin with, no question. I think providing some additional value is needed in
order to get adoption up to the point where developers start delivering the
broad app offerings that are required.

But I do agree with you that price is a great weapon in Amazon's arsenal. If
they let consumers have them free or cheap, keeping their margins near zero
with the aid of the carrier subsidy, that could be huge, especially if they
deliver an experience competitive with newer, non-forked Android offerings.
But the Kindle Fire hasn't exactly spoken much to this point thus far.

Regarding Palm, the OS was the only thing good about it, as I mentioned. The
problems were no apps and poor hardware. I'd put all my money on it failing if
it had a 4" screen and said 'Sony'. Sony is one of the last companies I could
see bringing a new mobile OS to market. Not to pan them, but I'm trying to
think of the last innovative initiative they've executed. All that comes to
mind is a clear demonstration of their inability to handle content delivery
with the inexcusable Playstation debacle, their flailing 'Sony Style' stores
that nobody goes to, and a hope to return to profitability this year (the
company made no money last year, registering a loss of 67.3 billion). HP had a
much better shot, but they failed too.

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nirvana
One thing to know about Amazon is that they use PR to leak things.

I think there's an ethical problem in reporters not revealing that a "leak" is
coming from a PR agency. "people familiar with the situation said" conveys a
very different impression than "according to amazon PR off the record."

When I worked there, they released dozens of products a year. They would have
teams work for 6 months to create a product for a press release and then the
team would dissipate over the next 6 months, the "product" would simply get
stale and eventually be cut.

Amazon movie times, local menus, catalog ordering, etc. Amazon is a hype
machine, driven to keep their PE in the stratosphere. I understood this in the
1990s, I have not understood it since, but that's how they operate. They do
have a solid business in Amazon.com (but notice how the international
expansion stopped dead. Easy to do a big PR campaign about going worldwide,
but then you don't have to follow thru).

All those kindle fire rumors before it was announced? They came from Amazon
PR. This is how MG got his hands on one early... it wasn't some amazon
employee that snuck it out of the building, it was an amazon PR Flack that
handed it to him.

This is how they also say things like "The kindle fire is selling like crazy"
to create that perception, without actually releasing any numbers. If they
released numbers it would allow direct comparisons and be embarrassing. If
they released fraudulent numbers it would be actionable in a shareholder
lawsuit. But they can release whatever "Whispers" they want and create the
perception that the kindle fire is selling like crazy... because Amazon PR
said so.

I can't say it doesn't work though. These rumors come out, the stock price is
goosed. They eventually release a phone, the stock price is goosed. By the
time they give up on the phone, people will have generally forgotten about it
anyway. Or it might be one of those few products that does make some money.
(or that they figure is a sufficient PR generator to keep pouring money into--
if legions of people will call every leaked upcoming kindle fire an "iPad
killer" then maybe the PR value is sufficient.)

Frankly, I think it is a form of fraud. They have way mislead people about
amazon fire sales. Some people even think they sell as many fires as Apple
sells iPads. But that's the kind of company they are.

~~~
roc
> _""people familiar with the situation said" conveys a very different
> impression than "according to amazon PR off the record.""_

Well "according to amazon PR off the record" is a contradiction in terms. If
you identify them as the source, they're _on_ the record in every way that
matters.

That said, I completely agree that the press has long been horrible at passing
along glorified press releases as 'news' and it ought to stop.

I just can't think of any feasible system to stop it. Even a community attempt
to catalog and shame people out of it would just force the practice to evolve
into using intermediaries, however deep as necessary, to establish plausible
deniability.

