
The Future of Europe: An Interview with George Soros - ivancdg
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/apr/24/future-europe-interview-george-soros/?insrc=hpss
======
gbog
It is funny to see the construction of Europe, which is arguably the first
time in human history that different groups of people willingly tend towards a
common political entity without external threat and blood spilled all over,
criticised from inside and outside by the likes of Soros, who will never
understand that finance is a tool and not an end. I hope Merkel and other
Eurocrats will firmly continue to not listen to his "well-intentioned free
advices".

All proportions aside, it is a bit like those who criticize Wikipedia, which
is one of the greatest production of human minds, just because some of their
edits have been reverted.

~~~
Atropos
I really don't get the amount of hate and derision the European Union is
always getting from US commentators. Culturally and geographically, for
example Finland and Greece do not have much in common - yet Finland is willing
to help them out, despite the "NO BAILOUT" clause explicitly implemented in
the construction of the eurozone.

Meanwhile the USA has neighboring countries like Mexico or Cuba with huge
problems like drug wars or lack of democratic elections (Cuba only) and which
are poorer GDP/capita wise than countries like Poland, which were practically
communist colonies of Russia until 1990! Sorry but it seems to me that the
European Union is much more beneficial to the European continent than the USA
for the American continent.

~~~
dageshi
The rest of europe bailed out Greece due to forced self interest, they shared
the same currency and effectively the same banking system, had they not bailed
out Greece the repercussions would have found their way back to all the other
countries inside the eurozone in short order.

If you share the same currency and banking system you end up being responsible
for each others debts whether you liked it or agreed to it in the first place,
the "NO BAILOUT" clause was effectively worthless and irrelevant.

~~~
Atropos
That may be the official US/UK media narrative, but it is nonsense to anyone
who looks at the underlying data. Do you realize that a restructuring of
Greece debt has already happened with Greece private creditors incurring
around 53.5% face value losses? And guess what - the Eurozone is fine.
Furthermore Greece GDP and banking is tiny compared to the Eurozone. Does
sharing the same currency mean that mean that the USA is forced to bail out
the city of Detroit?

If the mantra "Same currency - responsible for all debts" was true, it would
be impossible to explain why the yields of German/Austrian/Finnish bonds are
trading at a vastly different level than the Italien/Spanish/Portuguese etc...
bonds!

~~~
dageshi
It was the precedent that mattered not the size of the Greek economy, in the
same way that the size of Lehman brothers in the US didn't matter individually
but the precedent that the US government would no longer write blank cheques
to bailout failing institutions did. With Greece the precedent was set that
what "NO BAILOUT" actually meant was "NO BAILOUT" if the problem is small
enough to not impact anyone else.

~~~
waps
I think the big elephant in the room argument is right. They legislated their
debt out of existence, and ... the market didn't care.

So the US can do the same, with the same result. Declare all US
debt/treasuries to only have 50% of the nominal value. Immediate result :
large drop, followed by recovery. Longer-term result : nothing.

So the Cyprus and Greece crises made this a valid policy option. It doesn't
look like it will be necessary any time soon, but it has gone from
inconceivable to "will happen at some point in the future".

The market doesn't actually want you to pay back your debt. They care, but not
enough for real consequences for the debtor. Why ? Simple : there's no other
place to put money if you have very low interest rates everywhere.

------
k0mplex
If you don't read the New York Review of Books already, and you like
periodicals like the New Yorker and Economist, I recommend adding it to your
list - and this article is a good example of why.

Also, this was such a great point by Soros from the interview: "According to
Max Planck, among others, subatomic phenomena have a dual character: they can
manifest themselves as particles or waves. Something similar applies to human
beings: they are part freestanding individuals or particles and partly
components of larger entities that behave like waves. The impact they make on
reality depends on which alternative dominates their behavior. There are
potential tipping points from one alternative to the other but it is uncertain
when they will occur and the uncertainty can be resolved only in retrospect."

~~~
spikels
Soros is wrong here. Max Planck was actually strongly against the duality
interpretation and his influence suppressed Einstein and others correct
interpretation for several decades.

[http://books.google.com/books?id=xsSv3kSDEd8C&lpg=PA8&ots=9L...](http://books.google.com/books?id=xsSv3kSDEd8C&lpg=PA8&ots=9LKS3lWB50&dq=planck%20rejected%20duality&pg=PA8#v=onepage&q=planck%20rejected%20duality&f=false)

------
spikels
Don't waste your time trying to understand the rantings of this lunatic. Like
many of the uber rich he made his money from being lucky and political
connections not from actually learning anything new. His incoherent theories
(e.g. reflexivity) are simply cover for whatever scheme he is currently
perusing to gain even more weath and power.

~~~
cynicalkane
This is a textbook ad hominem attack. It's trying to discredit someone using
insults, and it is considered a logical fallacy. It's not the insult that
makes an ad hominem, it's using with insults as an excuse to dismiss someone's
arguments.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem)

It doesn't help that the OP's insult premise, despite its frothing anger, is
your garden-variety, vaguely conspiratorial hate of evil rich people. This
sort of stuff should come with a big [CITATION NEEDED] for those of us who
don't believe the rich are a big conspiracy of fortunate sons, out to get the
common people.

But what's most ironic is that Soros being one of the world's top finance guys
gives him more credibility, not less; unless you believe he has a nefarious
plot to make billions by lying in magazine interviews or something.

~~~
yread
I think it is correct not to trust what he says. He has a history of currency
speculations, so stuff he says publicly might be just him trying to stir some
shit. Is he short on euro again like with pound in 1992? If he discloses his
positions, perhaps we can take what he says at face value.

------
anigbrowl
This is a bit off the beaten track for HN, but thanks for posting it. It's
rare to see this sort of in-depth policy analysis in the click-driven daily
news media. This is a very interesting time historically, but also a dangerous
one. The Economist has also had some excellent coverage of these issues
recently, not least a lengthy essay on democracy:
[http://www.economist.com/news/essays/21596796-democracy-
was-...](http://www.economist.com/news/essays/21596796-democracy-was-most-
successful-political-idea-20th-century-why-has-it-run-trouble-and-what-can-be-
do) and this editorial:
[http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21591853-century-
there...](http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21591853-century-there-are-
uncomfortable-parallels-era-led-outbreak)

~~~
kzahel
I would hardly call that an essay. I would call it propaganda straight out of
a public high school civics/US History textbook.

------
lispm
Soros has been manipulating markets for his financial advantage. What's new?
He has speculated against the Euro and now he is unhappy with the outcome.

------
pessimizer
Soros: "The incestuous relationship between national authorities and bank
managements [is what's wrong with European banking.] France in particular is
famous for its inspecteurs de finance, who end up running its major banks.
Germany has its Landesbanken and Spain its caixas, which have unhealthy
connections with provincial politicians. These relationships were a major
source of weakness in the European banking system and played an important part
in the banking crisis that is still weighing on the eurozone. The proposed
banking union should have eliminated them, but they were largely preserved,
mainly at German insistence."

------
Bpal
Soros juggles the facts in his favour -that's for sure, but the general
geopolitical picture is given about right. Like Germany being the dominant
player in Europe and Russia helping out with Middle East chemical weapon.
These are well-known facts, what would be really great to find out is what
bonus the leader of the country brings to the table of his own nation and at
what cost. Not sure, we'll ever find out.

------
dharma1
for someone who's 83, that's pretty clear thinking. thanks for posting.

~~~
lispm
his 'clear' thinking is based on three m-words:

me

more

money

