
CDC says U.S. gatherings of over 50 people should be put off - infodocket
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-15/cdc-says-gatherings-over-50-people-should-be-delayed-eight-weeks
======
hirundo
> The advisory doesn’t apply to the day-to-day operation of organizations such
> as schools, institutes of higher learning, or businesses...

Why not? A theater playing Emma on a schedule isn't somehow safer than a movie
theater hosting a one-time corporate event, for the same number of people. Or
a normal day at a large restaurant versus the same restaurant reserved for a
private party. Why advise that the later be put off but not the former?

> Events of any size should only be continued if they can be carried out with
> adherence to guidelines for protecting vulnerable populations, hand hygiene,
> and social distancing

Say such a business tried to continue to hold events while adhering to the
guidelines. It seems that "protecting vulnerable populations" would mean not
admitting people with comorbidities, such as the elderly, obese, diabetic,
smokers, etc. I'd think that equal access laws such as the ADA would prevent
such an attempt.

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Taek
At first I was happy to see this. But now I am not happy to see this, because
it's making me realize that this is the only action that's going to be put in
place over the next few days.

Too little, too late. This type of regulation made sense 2 weeks ago, combined
with a halting of all international travel and an advisory against interstate
travel.

The virus got out of control though. We don't know how many are infected, but
we know our ground zero is 10-100x worse than the ground zero of nations that
managed to get things under control.

People need to brace for impact. The US medical system is going to be
overwhelmed by people in critical condition. The government has been too slow
to respond.

~~~
nvahalik
> People need to brace for impact. The US medical system is going to be
> overwhelmed by people in critical condition.

I'd just like to point out that when you say the "US medical system" you're
talking about a large area. It's not like a country like Italy which is
smaller than the state of California but 30% more people. The US is far more
spread apart and while that doesn't mean it will be better here, it does mean
that you can't think about the US just like a single country. Same with China,
too.

~~~
freehunter
You’re still only talking about 700,000 beds for a disease that will likely
cause 1,000,000 deaths and put huge numbers in the ICU and even more in
hospital care.

A bed in Maine does no good if the patient is in LA and the doctor is in North
Dakota.

~~~
Pacers31Colts18
Let's also not forget the trend for years has been to eliminate beds to save
$$$. Rural hospitals will be hit the worst by this, most are now just
outpatient hospitals with limited number of beds.

------
sitkack
Meetings over 1 should be avoided.

Wash hands. Cover coughs. Maintain a minimum of 6ft distance .

------
pmoriarty
The effectiveness of this warning on people who would not already limit their
gatherings is questionable. Many people are just in denial or deluded about
how serious this pandemic is, and are unlikely to significantly change their
behavior until and unless people start dropping dead all around them.

The most effective thing the CDC can do is just to dramatically increase the
amount of testing by hundreds or thousands of times over what it's doing now,
then publish the results. If people know how many others are infected all
around them it might give more of them pause.

The government also needs to do whatever it takes to increase ICU capacity at
hospitals, and give them more resources and support of every kind.

We are very likely on the brink of a collapse of the ability of our health
care system to take care of the most vulnerable, with a death toll that will
dwarf in American casualties any war the US has been in and the direst of
economic consequences if the pandemic is not slowed to a manageable level.

~~~
TravHatesMe
> We are very likely on the brink of a collapse of the ability of our health
> care system to take care of the most vulnerable, with a death toll that will
> dwarf in American casualties any war the US has been in and the direst of
> economic consequences if the pandemic is not slowed to a manageable level.

This seems over the top.

I thought the death rates are insignificant for those younger than 60, and
those who succumb to it already have pre-existing health/respiratory issues.
Doesn't influenza cause thousands of deaths per year?

I am mostly playing devil's advocate, I am genuinely curious to hear why you
have so much fear.

~~~
zaroth
For example, 97.1% of fatalities in Italy are over 60 years old, and 99.9% of
fatalities are over 50 years old.

The 65+ crowd isn’t living paycheck to paycheck and working every day to pay
for rent and groceries. There are a lot of people living paycheck to paycheck
who are at basically zero risk from this virus who should be allowed to work.

Since we’re talking about a few trillion dollars of economic damages, I would
expect something a bit less hysterical and a bit more focused on the actual
at-risk population.

~~~
crooked-v
"Let the young people go to work" means you now have to somehow completely
isolate everyone over 60... while still providing them health care from
uninfected people... while almost literally everyone else in the country is
getting infected.

And even then, 3% fatalities under 60 with a 2% fatality rate means that 0.06%
of those people under 60 will die. In the US, that means a minimum of (napkin
math: 327 million * 85% * 0.06%) 1.66 million people, and almost certainly
much more than that, because all of those under-60 severe cases are wildly
overloading hospitals and so are unable to get the care they need.

All of this is the strategy that the UK is currently undertaking, which can be
generously described as "completely insane" because they don't have the
support system for all of those over-60 people to safely self-isolate or the
hospital capacity to handle the flood of severe under-60 cases that will show
up over the next month or so.

~~~
zaroth
It seems like the alternative is to completely isolate _everyone_ so I’m not
sure why isolating just the at-risk population is worse than that.

We have ~100 cases in MA currently. On April 20th when we have ~100 do we have
to lock down the state all over again?

~~~
pcestrada
Economic hardship does not kill those under 35. You need to focus on the
social good.

------
yters
This will become the new normal. A two week quarantine won't fix anything, and
the virus will spread all over again once the quarantine is lifted and a bunch
of not immune carries venture out in public again. Then we will go into
another lockdown and the cycle will repeat.

~~~
halfmatthalfcat
They won’t lift the lockdown until we’ve hit certain markers, I’m sure.

This is why de Blasio took so long (or rather was forced by Cuomo and other
state’s moves) to close schools. Once you close the schools, they aren’t
opening for the rest of the year and potentially into the next school year.

~~~
DoreenMichele
There may be many reasons to be reluctant to close schools.

Some kids get a lot of their food from school and go hungry when school is
closed.

A lot of parents are dependent on school as de facto daycare and can't afford
to pay for childcare when school isn't in session.

~~~
dwighttk
why would you need / how would you get

childcare when we're all quarantined at home?

~~~
DoreenMichele
If the parent isn't being ordered home yet by the government, state law says
"Your child is too young to leave home alone while you work" and they shut the
schools down under circumstances where you will find it nigh impossible to get
daycare at all because the entire city is dealing with the same issues, this
could get you fired (or charged with child neglect if you go to work and leave
your child home alone).

Lots of people are amazingly callous, but some aren't. Some are reluctant to
pull the trigger on a decision like that, knowing how many people will get
caught in the crossfire and have their lives essentially ruined even if we
magically come up with a cure for the virus tomorrow.

------
emkemp
Moderators: Here is the direct (non-paywalled) announcement from CDC:

[https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/large-
ev...](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/large-events/mass-
gatherings-ready-for-covid-19.html)

~~~
grej
This should be at the top

------
jackschultz
Put off for 8 weeks. Let's make the assumption that people follow the rule and
things seem to go well and we get to May 10th. What will they say for the next
max size gathering? 250? Small ramp ups? Or do you think they'll continue to
say stay below 50 and the 8 week time limit is all that can looked ahead to?

We really need well run prediction markets on this. Getting more accurate
forecasts on this is incredibly valuable.

~~~
jpster
I would love, love, love to learn more about whether and how China is
rebooting and how that is going. Haven’t seen much reporting on it. Aside from
Apple’s plans to reopen their stores there.

~~~
alisonatwork
Outside of Hubei, most people are back to work in some form or another now.

Throughout February white collar workers worked from home. Since March we've
been allowed back to the office, although there are draconian restrictions
(must not sit at same table, must wear mask, must report temperature etc).
Schools are still closed so many parents continue to work from home.

Blue collars have been going back to work for several weeks, although I
imagine they are facing similar or even harsher restrictions than white
collars.

I think pink collars have suffered the most of everybody. Many restaurants
have reopened, but in my neighborhood it's only this week that some
barbershops reopened, and there are still no bars open, no movie theaters, no
events venues etc.

My guess would be the country is about 60-70% back to work now, but those who
are back are definitely not operating at maximum efficiency due to the ongoing
travel restrictions, testing restrictions and closed up schools.

I would urge people in the west look at other countries in East Asia that
handled this without a massive lockdown. China is not really a great example
to follow.

------
jpster
I want those in leadership positions to stop saying “should” and start saying
“must”.

~~~
bdcravens
I suspect they are worried about backlash related to freedom of assembly or
freedom of religion.

------
adrr
Only thing we can do now is stop people from leaving their house for the next
4 weeks. We don't even have any testing capacity, nation should be shutting
down till we have the means to constrain the virus.

~~~
drstewart
Yeah, that would cause many times more deaths than Coronavirus ever would.
Unsurprisingly, people still need food and medicine to survive.

~~~
adrr
Worked for China. If we don't do anything we'll have 7% mortality rate that
Italy is reporting.

------
etxm
Does that mean you shouldn’t gather on, oh say an airplane?

~~~
grej
This is a legitimate question IMO. You’re in much tighter quarters for far
longer while flying most domestic routes.

~~~
etxm
Our family went on self quarantine a week ago because one of us is
immunocompromised, but we have travel plans for a wedding in 6 weeks.

------
zaroth
MA just announced a ban on all gatherings over 25 people. Restaurants are all
now take-out only. Health clubs closed. All shows and schools canceled. Etc..
Currently this is through April 7th.

I hope the government is also planning to pay people’s rent, mortgage,
electric, water, groceries, credit card interest, etc.

A friend of mine runs a small local restaurant. Not sure how he will pay rent.
All of his servers are now temporarily unemployed and have no way to buy food
or pay rent.

Another friend of mine is a personal trainer. Not sure how he will buy
groceries next week.

The vast majority of the people most directly impacted by all this are
essentially at zero risk of dying from COVID. And on April 7th it’s not like
COVID will cease to exist...

“Locking everything down” is an incredibly damaging and nonsensical action for
the vast majority of the population.

~~~
kirykl
>And on April 7th it’s not like COVID will cease to exist...

This is the most important part.

Its not clear whats being done to prep for the end of lockdowns. Once
everything resumes so will the spread (all) viruses

~~~
stephenbez
We've seen in examples like South Korea that it is possible to keep the virus
in check by doing extensive testing, contact tracing, and temperature checks.

We don't have those available right now and are looking at disaster if we
don't lock down. Our testing capacity will grow significantly and by later we
can take those measures and get back closer to normal life.

------
joejohnson
The Democratic National Committee needs to postpone the primaries scheduled
for this Tuesday.

~~~
mrfusion
I’d tend to agree but it could set a very dangerous precedent. I think that’s
one of the few things that’s worth not postponing.

~~~
halfmatthalfcat
Well, society has never faced an epidemic during an election year, so
unprecedented times might call for unprecedented measures.

~~~
0x8BADF00D
Might as well call off the election then. These are unprecedented times after
all.

~~~
AznHisoka
If the election was held in April, yes absolutely you should. Unless you have
virtual election options available.

------
kerng
Apparently Austria just banned any gatherings of 5+ people. Are we in the US
behind?

------
hurricanetc
Grocery stores? Pharmacies?

~~~
ajross
Should be minimized, but obviously can't be eliminated. There are some
services that can't be locked down, but that's OK as long as the community
transmission risk as a whole is suppressed enough. Herd immunity isn't only
about antibodies, the same mathematics works no matter how you reduce
transmission rate.

~~~
nvahalik
Some stores here are limiting hours to something reasonable: it gives them
time to re-stock and to clean. This seems not only reasonable but completely
sane. Close down for 8 hours a day minimally so that they can clean stores.

~~~
mrfusion
Although it also makes the times they are open more crowded.

~~~
fuzzfactor
I can assure you the fear in the faces of the Walmart workers Thursday
evening, as they had presided over emptier shelves every hour than any had
ever seen, was fear of rationing more so than fear of contracting disease.

That was the last day before they limited hours.

~~~
nvahalik
Perhaps. Around here this isn't something unusual when a hurricane or crazy
weather event is in the forecast.

Call it naive optimism, but hopefully in the next few days people will calm
down and things might sort-of go back to normal.

~~~
fuzzfactor
This was much worse shortage developing more rapidly than the anticipated
approach of more-accurately-predicted certain widespread destruction from
closely looming hurricanes like Ike and Harvey.

It only takes a small fraction of the population to act overly cautiously in
the face of perceived impending disaster, and you get throughput out the front
door in shopping carts greater than they are ready to keep up with from
truckloads in the back door.

Would be great if selection and available hours are broadened back to normal
soon

>hopefully in the next few days

but until then it looks like rationing has already started in the big city.

Within about the last 4 hours, the White House has addressed hoarding food as
the situation has become significant enough for them to go on record.

>_You don't have to buy so much,_ Trump said at a news conference. _Take it
easy. Just relax._

>Pence urged Americans to only buy the groceries they need for the week ahead.

While Dr. Anthony Fauci,

>the government's top infectious disease expert said he would like to see
aggressive measures such as a 14-day national shutdown that would require
Americans to hunker down even more to help slow the spread of the coronavirus.

------
senordevnyc
They need to just bite the bullet and lock everything down. We are way, way
behind the curve here and cases and deaths are going to skyrocket no matter
what we do at this point. But if we lock down now, we might be able to see the
numbers plateau in a few weeks.

~~~
meritt
The US has major public leaders [1] and news organizations actively suggesting
to people this is overblown and that they should go continue about their
normal lives. We are so completely far from that step happening on a national
level.

Edit: Source added.

[1] [https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-
updates/2020/03/devi...](https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-
updates/2020/03/devin-nunes-this-is-why-we-cant-have-nice-things-coronavirus/)

~~~
AlexCoventry
What's the most recent example? It seems to me as though any diminution of the
crisis stopped this weekend.

~~~
mikeyouse
Literally several Republicans today. The Governor of Oklahoma tweeted a pic of
himself at a busy restaurant last night
([https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETHs_hQUcAAu3Ep?format=jpg](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETHs_hQUcAAu3Ep?format=jpg)).

Sheriff David Clarke, who has nearly a million followers on Twitter just said
this a few hours ago and got thousands of retweets and favorites:

> _It is now evident that this is an orchestrated attempt to destroy
> CAPITALISM. First sports, then schools and finally commercial businesses.
> Time to RISE UP and push back. Bars and restaurants should defy the order.
> Let people decide if they want to go out._

> _GO INTO THE STREETS FOLKS. Visit bars, restaurants, shopping malls,
> CHURCHES and demand that your schools re-open. NOW! If government doesn’t
> stop this foolishness...STAY IN THE STREETS. END GOVERNEMNT CONTROL OVER OUR
> LIVES. IF NOT NOW, WHEN?_

[https://twitter.com/SheriffClarke/status/1239324440934133760](https://twitter.com/SheriffClarke/status/1239324440934133760)

These people are psychotic and should be expelled from polite society.

~~~
anigbrowl
You shouldn't be downvoted for sharing facts.

~~~
pdonis
He didn't just share facts, he expressed an extreme personal opinion.

~~~
SpicyLemonZest
I think that popular figures trying to exacerbate a pandemic by sowing public
distrust deserve a bit of vitriol in response. It's not a subject that's
really amenable to polite argument; Sherrif Clarke is killing people, as
surely as if he walked up and shot them in the head.

~~~
mikeyouse
As OP -- One of my really good friends (and a mother of 3) is currently
undergoing chemo to knock out her immune system and prep her for a bone marrow
transplant since she discovered she has severe aplastic anemia on Christmas,
several of my family members work in primary care in hospitals, I have a large
very close-knit family with ~10 uncles/aunts with significant Covid19
comorbidities and a 90-year old grandfather who lives in an urban center. If
"Expelling people from polite society" for directly endangering all of their
lives is extreme then I'm glad I didn't share my true opinion of what should
happen to these charlatans.

------
buboard
you d think that public service announcements would not be put behind a
paywall

~~~
pengaru
The CDC web site is not behind a paywall.

~~~
buboard
Public service announcements are meant to be broadcast by the media

~~~
pengaru
PSAs are meant to be broadcast to all audiences.

On a subscription service, the audience is the subscribers.

There's no requirement that I'm aware of for subscription services to offer
non-subscribers any content of any sort, including PSAs.

------
lazyant
It's 5 in Australia

~~~
EE84M3i
Did you mean Austria?

[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-15/austria-c...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-15/austria-
clamps-down-on-public-life-as-coronavirus-cases-soar)

------
threatofrain
Oh now they say it? What a lack of leadership.

~~~
swsieber
You'd rather they not say it all?

~~~
ceejayoz
I'd rather they said it a week or two ago.

------
ck2
So 49 people in a small room is okay? Like a classroom? WTF

Same CDC that refused the working tests from WHO, then made their own tests
incorrectly, then produced so few tests that we have no idea who is infecting
hundreds of others for days, weeks.

The post-analysis of this is going to be jaw-dropping. Like worse than
"determined to fly airplanes into buildings" report that was ignored before
9/11

~~~
friedman23
The purpose of these restrictions are to keep spread of the virus within
communities and to avoid inter community infection. This helps significantly
flatten the curve.

