
Italy's Coronavirus Lockdown Tests the Limits of Democracy - JumpCrisscross
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-09/italy-s-coronavirus-lockdown-tests-the-limits-of-democracy
======
pmontra
Working from Milan, the last tests of the day are running in the terminal
below this browser.

I'm definitely not happy not to be able to move freely (I like to go bicycling
in the countryside and it's Spring) but, to be fair, the only way not to
spread the virus is not to let people move around too much. Some politicians
here want more restrictions in the areas they administer, others want less.
The bet seems to be: we take a big economic hit now instead of a larger one
later on if we let the virus run unchecked. Maybe other European countries are
taking the opposite bet by not testing for the virus extensively or they are
really only at the beginning of the curve. I don't have elements so I won't go
further into this. Maybe somebody from other countries will add information
about it.

About the reaction of the people here. I asked questions in chat groups of
people I meet in RL (Italy is a WhatsApp country). Some 80-90% support these
restrictions. Some want more, China style. The news today are that the
government will deploy patrols to check people crossing city borders and that
they are checking the people at train stations for fever.

The roads are much emptier than usual, probably like what they used to be
during the summer vacations many years ago. No problem finding a seat on any
kind of public transport. No more supermarket runs, that happened two weeks
ago. Restaurants and bars are open only 9-18 but they point is that once you
close theaters, cinemas, gims, etc, there is little for people to go to. It's
really home-work-home for most of us.

It's going to be a long March, maybe a long April too. Anyway, my parents did
they primary school during WW2 with bombs falling from the sky (10k people
dead in this city) so this doesn't look as bad.

~~~
donclark
May Gods grace be with you, your city, and your people. LOVE

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mytailorisrich
It does not.

Democracy does not mean doing whatever one wants with no possibility of
restrictions in exceptional circumstances.

I have seen several articles lately that try to paint quarantines, lock-downs,
or other temporary restrictions as anti-democratic. This is a fallacy and it
is not helpful at all.

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jshevek
> _Italy’s steps are less limiting than one might have anticipated. The
> government is letting people move around the affected areas, and even to
> leave them, for work- or health-related reasons. Rome says it will fine or
> arrest those who break the rules, but it will be difficult to patrol such a
> vast area. Individuals will only need a written statement to prove that
> they’re traveling for work — a system that’s open to abuse._

The last few words seem like an understatement. It looks like they are trying
to strike a balance between competing needs. Even if the attempts at
restriction are not effective at stopping motivated individuals from
traveling, at the very least these policies further bolster cultural norms
discouraging movement and encouraging social distancing.

~~~
pohit
More like politicians need to look like they are doing something.

These days it's hard being in charge when the herd starts panicing. You have
to cook up all kinds of bullshit whether it's possible or not to prevent mass
madness.

~~~
jshevek
Yes, absolutely. I wasn't trying to suggest the actual motive, just note a
possibly beneficial side effect.

At the same time, there will be massive unintended negative side effects
caused directly by the impeded movement, particular for people with existing
medical problems.

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shadowgovt
I've been trying to find a source to clarify and have come up empty: what
happened in Italy that they were hit so disproportionately hard relative to
other countries?

~~~
haunter
\- Older population

\- lot of heavy smokers

\- the typical european old people attitude (and i'm saying that as a european
too): "you don't take me anywhere". My grandparents passed away long ago but
they never went to doctor only in the very last minute all the time. It's a
kind of mentality and you can see that in the Italy cases. When they take
people to the hospital and they die the next day it means they had a heavy
fever for a week or more already. They have been sick for a long time but no,
we don't go to the hospital. That's why what South Korea does is important,
20k tests daily, and they have done 200k already.

~~~
jaclaz
All three may account for higher number of fatalities, but not for the speed
of the virus spreading.

There is no real evidence that smokers or older people more easily get the
virus, and of course if they stayed put at home they did not contribute to the
spreading (they had no or however less contacts).

~~~
haunter
As bryanrasmussen pointed out physical contact is also more common on meeting,
especially kiss on the cheek. Like that's how you greet everyone and the best
way to spread viruses

I've never been to the US but I don't think kiss on the cheek is that common
there.

~~~
lacker
I see a kiss on the cheek as a greeting in the US about once a year, usually
between two visiting Europeans.

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devit
I think they are not enough, and that instead everyone should be forced to
stay home and only go out if it's essential for their own or for other
people's survival (e.g. buying food, working at jobs related to medicine,
food, utilities, etc.); furthermore all non-essential travel (i.e. pretty much
everything except delivering supplies) should also be blocked.

Currently people are, in part, still going to work even at non-essential jobs,
non-essential shops are still open and enforcement is very limited.

~~~
jshevek
I agree this would be a good policy in this case, but in my opinion the real
issue is "what should our general policy be for empowering leaders to make
this decision, and on what basis."

I support the lock down in Italy because I am convinced of the threat of the
virus. However, I can imagine an alternative scenario in which a viral threat
is exaggerated and a lock down is used to consolidate political power.

~~~
devit
A transmissible disease that has already overwhelmed hospitals in another
country and is spreading uncontrollably in yours seems a good criteria.

~~~
jshevek
Yes, and we would need to either clearly, objectively define "overwhelmed" and
"uncontrollably" or designate people authorized to make this categorization.
(Or both).

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forkexec
Watch LegalEagle's video. Quarantining people is completely legal in the US.

------
ramblerman
I think Bloomberg misses the basics of human psychology here.

People look for strong leadership in times of panic and fear. Sometimes to
their detriment. But I would be surprised if a majority is not for stronger
measures when they think of their loved ones, and themselves.

------
neonate
[https://archive.md/KNzyq](https://archive.md/KNzyq)

------
allovernow
Wait until we make attempts to control the spread in the US. Things are about
to get really interesting. Based on timelines from other countries, we're
probably 1-6, closer to 1-3 weeks away from full outbreak and severe
containment measures.

~~~
shadowgovt
The likeliest scenario in the US is that (at the federal level at least) we
won't try to contain it beyond perfunctory measures. People will just get sick
and die. Hospitals will experience shortages and we'll try to back-stop those
shortages via capitalistic solutions. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of
even stories of straight-up bribery for hospital access to come up some years
after this is all over.

Be it cancer or COVID-19, the US default attitude to healthcare in general is
very "Whatever happens to a person, happens. Can't control it." One could
even, uncharitably, point to the origins of the country and suggest that
there's a critical mass of people who look at health crises, shrug, and go
"God's will."

~~~
vorpalhex
Right now the US in a relatively short span of time has gone from having no
testing (due almost exclusively to government regulation) to having broad
testing availability (thanks to free markets).

> People will just get sick and die

People may get COVID-19, but in general I would anticipate the rate of severe
outcomes to be lower than we've seen given both the physical distance between
people in the US versus more dense areas and the higher distribution of
healthcare - we just have a lot more hospitals per person than China does.

> Hospitals will experience shortages and we'll try to back-stop those
> shortages via capitalistic solutions

That may happen, but Hospitals are also free to invest heavily in having their
own supplies and we've already seen companies start shipping supplies in bulk.
We are better positioned to address shortages than most other nations.

> I wouldn't rule out the possibility of even stories of straight-up bribery
> for hospital access to come up some years after this is all over.

That is far fetched and not tied to reality.

> we won't try to contain it beyond perfunctory measures

It would be surprising to see a formal quarantine. It is more likely some
areas will have recommended quarantines and in general social distancing will
be heavily encouraged.

~~~
cstejerean
We do not have more hospital beds than China does. China is at 4.3 hospital
beds per 1,000 people. In the US we are at 2.7. Italy is at 3.18.
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_ho...](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds)

There’s been no evidence so far that our social distancing measures have done
anything to slow this down, and at the rate it’s growing we will absolutely
run out of hospital capacity at some point (and that’s just regular beds, not
to mention oxygen, masks and PPE for the hospital staff, or ICU beds for the
critically ill).

A formal quarantine is just a matter of time.

~~~
malandrew
Comparing quantity of hospital beds is a bit of a red herring. Having been in
hospital beds in three countries on three continents (US, Brazil and China),
I'd take the US hospital beds over the other two every single time. Much
better beds, much better equipment, much better training, much better
practices, processes and protocols.

~~~
i_haz_rabies
It doesn't really matter how good the bed is if there isn't one left for you.

