
Show HN: Trigger – IFTTT for the stock market - rachelita
https://www.triggerfinance.com/
======
qf303rjr3
I work for a quantitative hedge fund. I program computers to trade securities
for a living. On any given day, code that I have written trades hundreds of
millions of dollars worth of stock, futures and options.

I feel very confident in saying that for 99.9% of people, using this service
will be a terrible, terrible idea that will only cost them money in the long
run.

If you want to get into the stock market, buy a low-cost index fund and hold
it for the next twenty years. That's the best advice I can give you.

~~~
alva
This service is purposefully targeting people who know next to nothing about
the stock market, and making them feel like they have some sort of clever
control of the outcome of their investments.

I have criticised this idea elsewhere in the thread so this will be my last
post on it. I hope all HN folk reading this thread will look into it and
discover how parasitical this sort of venture is.

~~~
princeb
it's a free country and people are free to trade however they want (with
restrictions haha).

they just need to be aware that retail traders are not going to get the same
kind of competitive advantages that the big boys like Citadel or GETCO have.

it's not a "rigged" game in the same way Walmart being able to buy wholesale
apples cheap and flip it to us richer is not a "rigged" game.

~~~
alva
You are correct, if people want to risk their money then that is their right
(providing they have been supplied all the legal warnings designed to protect
people from losing money in a game they don't understand).

This service is the equivalent of putting an amateur chess player in front of
Kasparov and suggesting they bet real money on winning because you taught them
a basic opening move.

~~~
princeb
i don't think this company is suggesting anything of that kind, because this
myth has been perpetuated since the start of retail financial markets, and
possibly both the brokerages and other retail investors are to blame for this.

everyone in this thread here seems to have the common sense to say "don't try
to compete in the same strategies as the HFT specialists". that's absolutely
true.

but then this idea that financial markets cannot be anything else other than a
HFT's playground doesn't seem to go away, even in this thread. that's not a
fair assessment.

if you are a retail investor, if you pick a portfolio allocation appropriate
to your risk appetite, if you pick a reallocation and reinvestment policy that
you can get a good handle on, and you stick to it without fail, then you are
half of the way to what pensions/insurances/savings plans implement for you,
except now you don't pay fees, and you don't have to wait 20 years for the
investment to "mature". in fact, because retail fees are so high, retail
investors are better off using a minimal rebalancing policy: trading less,
tweaking less, getting less fidgety about their trades - and that is a good
thing. trading less and getting better returns usually comes together.

if you are happy with more risk, and you take controlled bets with options
structures going out several weeks or a few months, you can get away with some
good wins and a hopefully fewer losses and may still come out ok even after
spreads/fees.

if you try to compete with HFTs on the sub second horizon without any of the
equipment/services that the HFTs pay for, then you will lose. don't do that,
that space is not for you.

------
rachelita
Hey everyone! I’m co-founder and CEO of Trigger Finance, which I’m thrilled to
share with you today :)

Trigger is simplifying the world of stock investing by reducing everything to
an “IF THIS, THEN THAT” statement, called a ‘trigger’. You can create triggers
to track all sorts of things happening in the market -- for example, if a
stock drops suddenly, or if Apple announces earnings at a certain level, or if
the Fed is raising interest rates. You can use Trigger to be notified (in
real-time) when important events affecting your portfolio occur, and in the
future, can execute automated trades through our platform.

We currently integrate with 8 different brokerages (including eTrade,
Fidelity, and TDAmeritrade) for account read-access. We hope to expand this
list in the future (looking at you, Robinhood!).

Our mission is to help the individual investor take a more disciplined, rules-
based approach to managing their portfolio. Please help us deliver on that
promise by giving us your feedback!

Please let us know if you have any questions - we’re here to answer them,
Rachel

~~~
Analemma_
I'm not terribly well-versed in stocks and trading, so forgive me if this is
an obvious question, but:

My broker (Fidelity) charges me something like $7/day/stock to keep a stop
order open. Presumably I could accomplish the same thing for free with
Trigger. Is there some major difference between a "sell if below X" Trigger
and a stop order, or is Fidelity just bilking me?

~~~
hellcow
For what it's worth, Robinhood allows free stop orders without any time limit.

~~~
Analemma_
Interesting, I guess I just need a new broker. Amusingly, after I finished my
comment I figured I'd log into my Fidelity account (which I hadn't done in a
while), and I couldn't because it turns out they don't allow certain
characters in their passwords and so the last time I changed my password it
_silently_ failed without telling me.

Still, Trigger sounds pretty neat even if you do have a non-crappy broker. As
soon as HN picks it apart to make sure there are no obvious pitfalls, I'll
definitely take a look.

~~~
tedmiston
There's a huge obvious pitfall with Trigger: information arrives several
orders of magnitude too late vs. HFT. Investing in a style that mimics them
but at hundreds (maybe thousands) of times slower is inherently flawed.

And if it helps inform your broker research, Robinhood is the exception to the
rule when it comes to commission-free trades.

------
alva
Mixed feelings on this. In some ways, I quite like it. Certainly adds some
more automation to the process and makes it simple. Nice UI.

On the other hand, I am sure you are well aware of just how many amateurs lose
money because they think they can actively manage and "play the stock market".
My fear is that letting people make extremely, and these are extremely simple
rules will make them feel even more in control and "smart" about their
investments decisions.

Every rule examples presented are horrific simplifications that are somewhat
intuitive (the dangerous kind!), giving confidence to the user, but would
never pass for a sensible trading strategy. I think you are misleading users
into thinking they are much more in control than they actually are.

From CEO in this comment thread

>"Trigger is trying to take the emotion out of investing, as the pros do."

>"As a former trader..."

As a former trader you must understand how complex trading and analysis is.

~~~
maerF0x0
Could go for value based things, if P/E of S&P 500 is below 10 buy $1000 of
${ETF}

~~~
alva
If you can come up with a systematic strategy in a one-liner, that gives you
consistent, good risk-adjusted returns, let me know as I quite fancy being a
billionaire.

Saying that, "Buy Low, Sell High" isn't a bad strategy ;)

~~~
unclebucknasty
Yeah, can't quite shake the feeling that if it was really that good, you'd
just use it vs. (eventually) sell it.

------
chillydawg
Remember, the stock market is just gambling. Fancy tools and triggers just let
you kid yourself you know what you're doing. Unless you do it as a full time
job, you probably should not ever directly trade individual stocks. What do
you know that the pros do not?

~~~
gnaritas
> Remember, the stock market is just gambling.

That's quite a claim, where's the evidence to back it? There are funds[1] that
have consistently beat the market every year for decades, their very existence
disproves the gambling hypothesis.

> What do you know that the pros do not?

You're not playing the same game as the pro's so it doesn't really matter.
Hedge fund/mutual fund managers are playing with millions/billions of dollars
which requires massive liquidity and carefully planned entries and exits over
a period of time in order to not move the price too much; that's a completely
different game than what a retail investor plays and that means retail
investors can chase profits in areas too small for the big guys to play in.

In other words, you don't have to beat the big guys, you're not fishing in the
same pond nor playing the same game. Retail investors can enter and exit
trades instantly without having to worry about liquidity or slippage, two
concerns that dominate the big guys strategies. When you're small, you're
nimble in a way the big guys can't be.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies)

~~~
chillydawg
Every single trade you place has several costs associated with it. Things like
the direct cost to the broker, and the implied cost of half the current
spread. I do not believe that most people have the skill or discipline to
understand the difference between happening to make money and properly making
money long term.

As for it not being gambling - there's nothing stopping you beating
bookmakers. It's doable, but you need to spend an awful lot of time
researching sports (or whatever). It's the same with stocks - the vast
majority of people are essentially just taking the spread and making expected
losses on every trade, which the bookies (market makers in stock terms) soak
up. A few people can spot outliers and take only those bets and make money
long term.

I stand by my claim. If it's so easy to make money on the stocks why isn't
everyone doing it?

~~~
tanderson92
Lots of people are making money on stocks. But your overly broad claim that
investing in the stock market is gambling is indefensible: when you invest in
broad total market funds you are essentially betting on entire economies,
because you are assuring yourself a right to future income streams.

How is that gambling?

By choosing proper low-fee funds you can minimize the brokerage fees (and you
can buy securities at net asset value) so that half of your critique of long-
term profitability is untrue.

~~~
chillydawg
If you had read my original comment you'd see that I said most people should
never directly trade individual stocks. I completely agree that putting money
into low cost trackers for things like the FTSE250 or S&P500 is sensible.
You're giving your money to a pro, who then keeps your bets balanced and
trades cheaply.

~~~
tanderson92
yes, apologies. I completely missed that.

------
mmsmatt
As far as I can tell, Trigger is neither broker nor advisor. Why a company
that is none of those wants to touch my securities, I can think of no
charitable reason for that.

There exist a million reasons you do not want not-quite-stop-limit orders on
SPY or GOOG in your personal account, you are up against trade execution
systems that smoke your retail broker not to mention this outfit (who you now
put between you & your broker).

Please do not bring a butter knife to a gun fight and lose your shirt.

~~~
dimino
But what if all I want to do is spread butter, not murder someone?

~~~
rachelita
[http://bodyecology.com/articles/benefits_of_real_butter.php](http://bodyecology.com/articles/benefits_of_real_butter.php)

------
datamingle
It is possible for them to determine popular triggers and front run them.
Since they are not a brokerage, I am not sure if they will be
regulated/punished if they do front run trades.

~~~
rachelita
we have plans to be become a registered investment advisor, which means we
will have a responsibility to act as a fiduciary to our clients. We would
never do such a thing as front running. In fact, what we would love to do is
to offer back insights into the community, such that when you are placing
triggers, we can tell you averages of where people are thinking of buying or
selling for that stock as an indicator of key price points.

~~~
Godel_unicode
Oh good, then others can front-run based on that leaked information.

Create trigger, see what the average is, place corresponding order outside of
trigger so as not to give the game away, profit.

------
Bromskloss
Trigger was my name idea for a phone app that did this "IFTTT" thing (as it is
apparently called). Well, now I don't have to write that app.

------
blibble
how do you deal with many clients having the same trigger then all executing
the same order at the same time?

if 50000 identical triggers fire at the same time trying to buy the same stock
with market orders they're going to get a bad deal, and people selling are
going to clean up

~~~
alva
If you knew that 50000 identical orders of significant value were about to
fly, you could make a huge amount of money.

~~~
wocram
It's a good thing this is _very_ illegal :)

~~~
Renevith
It's certainly illegal for brokers, exchanges, and fiduciaries, sure.

It's certainly _not_ illegal for me to do it, if you happen to tell me your
stop loss orders over beers, or if I predict people's stop loss orders using
public information and/or a sophisticated model.

So which side of the line is Trigger on? They don't seem to be a broker,
exchange, or fiduciary, and they wouldn't be getting the relevant information
from those sources.

"The User acknowledges and agrees that upon posting or transmitting
information [...] on the APP, the User assigns to the Company [...] all
rights, interest and title in and to such information"

If you want to manage your money through a tech startup, I suggest choosing
one that is a broker and/or has a fiduciary responsibility to you!

------
__jal
Back in the web 1.0 days, a friend started a company named Xigo (sp? Think it
was with an X) to do sort of similar stuff. There was a full domain specific
language for automation. They suffered the fate of many otherwise good ideas
in the ~2000 meltdown.

------
tuna-piano
Could you explain how the credential / integration works with the brokerages?

Is this a screen scraping integration where the provider stores my username /
password and provides you with a token?

Or is this directly integrated with the brokerages?

~~~
rachelita
We rely on Trading Ticket for brokerage integration, you can read more about
them here [https://www.trade.it/](https://www.trade.it/) check out there
terms.

~~~
vladgur
So is third party you are relying on then effectively scraping these
brokerages?

------
amendez
Just downloaded on the 6S. Nice UI but the app is a little buggy. Good Luck
and awesome seeing a startup launching from Cornell Tech!

Are you all planning on integrating Robinhood as a broker?

------
mmanfrin
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_\(1987\))

~~~
jsemrau
New Order - Blue Monday Blue Monday was originally released in 1983 by the
British Band New Order. It is the biggest selling 12'' of all time. With 7 1/2
minutes it is one of the longest tracks ever to chart on the UK Singles Chart.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYH8DsU2WCk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYH8DsU2WCk)

------
KZeillmann
Is it just stocks, or are options available/are they planned for the future?

~~~
rachelita
Right now we consume real time stock market data for ETFs and Stocks, as well
as corporate fundamentals and real time economic events. As for when we enable
trading from Trigger, whatever your broker allows you to trade we can support.
First we will allow trading for stocks, and then options and currencies. We
can introduce new securities quite easily into our platform.

------
fiatjaf
Are webhooks planned?

~~~
rachelita
yes! We are working to offer an API this summer with a webhook callback to get
notifications on your triggers getting fired programmatically, should be a LOT
of fun to play with.

------
DrSayre
Will you integrate with Schwab?

~~~
rachelita
At some point we'd love to. I have a Schwab account myself but can't use
Trigger to trade on it unfortunately. Schwab is known to be one of the most
closed environments in the investing space :/

------
vessenes
This is a great, great idea. I can imagine patenting it and building a
brokerage off it.

Best of luck in launch.

~~~
StriverGuy
This is essentially Algo trading for individuals. I doubt you can patent this.

------
cjbenedikt
when for Android?

~~~
soghoian
Hello! Co-founder here. We're working on it but don't have anything to
announce at the moment. Stay tuned!

