

Are we burning out on Facebook? - novum
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9179047/Are_we_burning_out_on_Facebook_

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novum
_The social networking site only picked up 320,800 new users in the U.S. in
June, according to Inside Facebook. That might sound like a lot -- until you
compare it with the number of new U.S. users the site grabbed in May: 7.8
million._

Wow. What could have caused a decline like this? The end of the school year?
The ongoing privacy brouhaha? Twitter?

~~~
InclinedPlane
Most likely the end of the school year.

As much as I'd like to imagine that Facebook is dying (it has truly horrific
usability), I don't think it's going away any time soon.

~~~
whatwhatwhat
Usability on facebook is "truly horrific" ...? lol..

~~~
apsurd
Actually I'd like a discussion on this. Are you kidding? I personally think fb
usability is terrible as well. The thing is, I can see how thats likely
intentional. It is obvious fb wants you to do certain things like share all
your crap with friends all the time everywhere and anywhere. So everything
that has to do with updates, pics, and the wall, well thats beautifully and
easily within reach. But anything else....good luck.

To be clear, I don't use fb, but I opened an account so that I can learn the
api and make some page apps. The documentation is old, sporadic, a pain to
find, and ...broken. Locating simple things like where my pages are seems to
take me forever!! I just have a hard time finding anything on fb that doesn't
have to do with status updates and "the wall".

Course I am hardly an "average user" and half a billion people seem to think
its good, right? right?

Any thoughts on this?

~~~
mortenjorck
The funny thing is, Facebook had great usability compared to what it replaced
for many people—Myspace—when its functionality was only comparable to what
Myspace offered.

As Facebook attempted to integrate itself into more of its users' lifestyles,
though, its UI became unfit for the depth of social functionality it had to
control.

~~~
chopsueyar
Most interestingly, from my personal observations, US users under the age of
18 prefer the "uncontrolled" nature of Myspace versus the structured "social
institution" feel of Facebook.

Also, as Facebook's users become more familiar with its workings (social, not
technical), it becomes quite apparent that there are limitations to having all
relationships equal.

This is truly where Facebook fails. I have friends, I have a best friend, I
have acquaintances (both business and social), and I have people I don't like,
I may have some enemies, too.

But in the realm of Facebook, all these people are my friends, and I have no
way to differentiate that within the Facebook platform. I do not believe it is
the UI that is the problem, but the underlying architecture of it's "social
functionality".

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pedalpete
Aren't we at the point where we stop counting Facebook registrations as a
metric?

Particularly in a discussion on if we are burnt out! You're only going to
sign-up once, so burn-out isn't measured by registrations.

Here are there visitor metrics
[http://siteanalytics.compete.com/facebook.com+google.com+bin...](http://siteanalytics.compete.com/facebook.com+google.com+bing.com/)

Doesn't look like they are having any problems. Note google & bing are flat,
facebook continues to rise.

~~~
joe_the_user
No, we aren't at the point where we can stop counting Facebook registrations.

That point is when Facebook has convincingly shown the ability to hold _and_
monetize its users. Since it hasn't reached that point, registrations is the
main thing that makes it hot. If it were to start shrinking before it was
monetizing, it would be in serious trouble.

Google doesn't need to grow faster than the Internet. Facebook does.

------
ju2tin
Any financial analyst knows you need to look at year-on-year ("YoY") growth
rates for monthly data to eliminate the impact of seasonality. For example,
retail sales for a store might fall off sharply in January compared to the
preceding December, simply because lots of people were shopping in December
for Christmas presents.

So instead of comparing June 2010 to May 2010, you compare May 2010 vs. May
2009 to June 2010 vs. June 2009. So you could say something like, "Facebook
registrations were up 30% YoY in May 2010, but were up only 2% YoY in June
2010. Actually, at this point, YoY growth rates might even be negative (i.e.,
Facebook may have signed up more users in June 2009 than it did in June 2010).

Month-on-month (MoM) comparisons can be interesting, but you need to put them
in context to determine if seasonality is affecting the results.

At any rate, the number of new registrations, by definition, says absolutely
nothing about whether users are getting burned out on Facebook. You'd need a
metric like average time spent on the site per user per month to say something
about that.

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ju2tin
Meanwhile, it sure seems like Computerworld has it in for Facebook. Here's the
latest articles listed in its "Facebook Watch" sidebar:

# Are we burning out on Facebook?

# Web abuzz on talk of Google Facebook killer

# Book about Facebook's beginnings may dim spotlight on privacy

# Facebook CTO: Don't forget Facebook is for sharing

# Facebook dev move won't stop rogue apps, say researchers

# Facebook 'likejacking' attacks continue with flesh appeal

# Is there a replacement for Facebook?

# Facebook CEO says mistakes made, privacy changes coming

# More than half of Facebook users may quit site, poll finds

# Social networks may be sharing your info with advertisers

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holman
The story is interesting, but then my inner Gruber was channeled when I read
this:

 _"Yes, people could be getting burned out," said Rob Enderle, principal
analyst at Enderle Group._

and remembered that Enderle is a jackass. I don't necessarily remember why
Enderle is a jackass, but Gruber says so, so whatever he's in agreement with
should be treated with extreme skepticism.

I think I read too much Gruber.

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donaldc
Status updates among my facebook friends have gone way down since the last
facebook privacy flap.

Perhaps facebook's reputation is starting to precede it.

(Though more people I am acquainted with continue to join. They just don't
update much or at all.)

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calebgilbert
Guess I was ahead of the curve. Was burnt out on facebook the first time I
tried it. :)

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nod
Doesn't this happen every summer?

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code_duck
I can't wait. Burn, baby, burn!

~~~
code_duck
Ha ha. This has to be the biggest community of uptight nerds on the entire
Internet.

~~~
code_duck
No, I'm serious. I have 190 points. Please go ahead and downvote all of my
posts until it reaches zero.

