

The Flattening of Ebook Sales - razorburn
http://www.roughtype.com/?p=3590

======
bd
Author of the original Association of American Publishers report posted a
comment to Washington Post article with rebuttal of this interpretation of
their data:

 _As the person who produced the AAP report quoted here, I 'm not given enough
characters in Comments to point out the countless errors in this piece. It
misunderstands our basic data and, since our reports only track current vs
previous year, quotes figures that come out of nowhere and are unrecognizable.
It misses the widely-reported fact that Q1 2013's overall eBook growth slowed
because of the Children's/Young Adults category: The Q1 lead-up to the Hunger
Games film in March 2012 drove C/YA eBooks to extraordinary triple-digit
growth; minus a comparable blockbuster in Q1 2013, C/YA slowed. Adult
Fiction/Non-Fiction eBooks, however, grew 14% in the same time '12-'13
period._

 _Also, an essential point is missed: These are not retail sales numbers but,
instead, publishers ' net revenues coming from all their distribution channels
including Institutions (e.g. schools, libraries) and Book Fairs. That also
means, for instance, that with Borders' financial troubles no longer a factor,
publishers have seen their net revenue from print stabilize which, in turn,
affects their overall percentage earned from eBooks in these reports._

 _Finally, the piece 's premise that an eBook is an eBook is an eBook is
wrong. Each category within consumer books - Adult Fiction/Non-Fiction,
Children's/YA and Religious Presses - has moved into e-formats at different
points in time. Adult F/NF was the pioneer, starting years ago, and that
growth has become more consistent as it's matured. C/YA, which entered later,
is now in the midst of enormous transition. Religious Presses are more
newcomers to eBooks. Lumping these distinct categories together and making
broad generalizations makes little sense._

 _We release highlights of all our reports to media (including the Post). We
're happy to share. But an article based on a non-journalistic blog that
itself has only second-hand information does a disservice to readers, authors
and publishers._

 _Andi Sporkin_ _Association of American Publishers_

[http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/08/08/e...](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/08/08/e-book-
sales-are-leveling-off-heres-
why/?commentID=washingtonpost.com/ECHO/item/1376001588-174-705)

~~~
dmix
This is proper journalism ^, getting analysis from people who didn't just read
the abstract.

~~~
ksec
Yes. And I must say OMG, i thought proper journalism was dead! Nice to see it
is still alive somewhere.

------
GabrielF00
One of the most interesting things to come to light in the anti-trust decision
against Apple was that Amazon was happily buying bestselling eBooks from
publishers for $13 and reselling them for $9. The publishers preferred the
opposite: for Apple and Amazon pay them $9 and then resell the books for $13.
The publishers WANTED the eBook market to slow down - they didn't want people
to stop buying hardcovers from Barnes and Noble for $30 and they didn't want
people thinking that a new bestselling novel was only worth $10.

------
tommaxwell
I actually find myself buying more and more ebooks lately. I find it really
convenient for various reasons, including Whispersync (which is quite useful).
Also I travel a lot and am in the process of finishing multiple books, so it's
obviously convenient to not have to carry giant books around.

I think a lot of factors are influencing this trend, but I don't buy that DRM
is the problem. As rude as it may sound, I doubt most of the general public
even knows what DRM is. Well, the data itself shows that the majority of
consumer book sales are going to paper, so that argument may be moot anyway.

Newer generations probably won't purchase nearly as many paper books (or
digital, even) as older generations. It'll be interesting to see how it plays
out. The market will probably shrink and be taken over by short-form work
designed for tablets and e-readers.

------
nopinsight
1\. Most of the current e-book contents & formats (Kindle, epub, etc.) have
not yet fully exploited the capabilities of the digital medium. I'd say we are
not more than 30-40% (or less) there, even just considering the current level
of technology.

2\. Habits are hard to change. What you are most accustomed to when growing
up, you tend to continue unless the advantages of change is overwhelming.
Current e-book formats do not yet offer huge advantages over paper books, thus
many adults keep buying paper ones. (Some advantages, like physical storage
space & weight, are big, but confined to specific situations, say during
travel, as mentioned in the article.)

3\. New generations of kids are more and more distracted by digital
interactivity and communications. I suspect the average amount of long-form
reading per person in the developed world has declined over time. (Does anyone
have an estimate?) Long-form narratives like paper books and current e-books
cannot now hold attention of most casual readers, especially the young. Even
though I did not grow up with a computer and read many books as a child, I now
read quite a bit less books and many more short items on the Web (articles,
blogs, forum posts, etc.).

4\. Over time, when the new generation of digital natives grows up and
technology progresses, e-books would gradually but surely dominate the reading
market for all types of books. More importantly, popular non-fictions will be
developed as a new kind of e-books, which cannot even be fully presented in
the traditional narrative form. Al Gore's Our Choice [1] is just an example of
the first generation's interactive e-books.

[1] [http://pushpoppress.com/ourchoice/](http://pushpoppress.com/ourchoice/)

~~~
girvo
In response to (3) -- I read a LOT as a kid, too, and I also stopped as I got
older. Until I got a kindle that is: now I read every day. I'm quite happy
about that.

And the browser in the PaperWhite is really handy, when I'm on the go ill,
often leave the tablet to home and use my kindle to read HN or The Verge.

Just a random anecdote :)

------
ekianjo
Well ebooks prices are ridiculous in the first place. I only buy ebooks when
the price is not fixed （bundles） and without drms. Other that that, there is
so muc free stuff to download from the public domain, i dont get bored.

And i still buy physical books, too.

~~~
mrmondo
I'm with you on the no-DRM, if I do buy a DRM eBook I have to be able to
remove the DRM (defeating the purpose).

~~~
rdl
The DRM which genuinely vexes me is Audible, so I make a point of ripping
(+++) anything I buy, because it actually makes the works difficult for me to
play otherwise (it blocks output from the iPhone except in analog, so it
doesn't play on my vehicle dock. I end up having to rip and put them on SD
cards to play directly on the car's audio system.)

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booruguru
I don't understand why we keep having this conversation when the answer
couldn't be any more obvious...avid readers represent a minority of the
population. And while avid readers represent a big chunk of book sales...many
books are purchased by people who rarely buy books at all (let alone for
pleasure).

When purchasing an ebook reader is as trivial as buying a pocket
calculator...then you'll see a massive shift in the proportion of ebook sales
vs print sales. (Also, it would be enormously helpful if ebooks could be
purchased WITHOUT a credit card...afterall kids buy books too.)

~~~
gojomo
Or as Steve Jobs put it: "People don't read anymore."

~~~
AsymetricCom
and he didn't have a problem with that.

~~~
Tichy
He still bothered to produce a biography of himself.

------
clumsysmurf
The article cites a number of reasons why this could be the case.

I would also like to throw in DRM & proprietary formats. First, you are using
something like a Kindle you are licensing content. If Amazon goes away, I
wouldn't be surprised if your content does too. That would make me nervous if
I was heavily invested in some ecosystem.

But another interesting theory, not mentioned in the article, is that there
may be a difference in reading speed and comprehension between paper and
screens (although I have seen conflicting data on this).

[http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=reading-
pap...](http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=reading-paper-
screens)

One fascinating idea from this article is that "As far as our brains are
concerned, however, text is a tangible part of the physical world we inhabit."

Personally, I comprehend information much better when its in some format like
PDF which is not re-flowable. But most books these days, available from Amazon
or Apple, do not meet that description.

Maybe I'm an odd one, but my ideal reading device would probably be some 13"
tablet that could display a whole PDF page at a time.

~~~
kabdib
> [if] you are using something like a Kindle you are licensing content. If
> Amazon goes away, I wouldn't be surprised if your content does too.

I break DRM on all the Kindle content I buy. If I couldn't break the DRM, I
wouldn't buy it.

I also try to support non-DRM books by buying them preferentially. Baen books,
for instance. There are other non-DRM publishers. And no, I do /not/ share.

I have a Kindle DX for reading papers (e.g., from the ACM). I haven't tried
reading conference papers on a tablet (e.g., iPad) mainly because I don't have
one, and while I wonder if the experience is better, I like the fact that the
Kindles don't have to be recharged every day. The fact that I can go a week or
more without recharging makes them a lot more book-like to me.

~~~
AsymetricCom
Some Kindle titles have disabled DRM. its an option the author can set.
obviously, few choose to do so. I imagine Cory Doctorow does.

~~~
mkr-hn
You can't disable DRM in KDP if you upload a book with it enabled, so authors
can't change their mind later.

------
pcunite
I recently bought 7 books. The price difference for a PDF file was sometimes
more than a real physical copy. For whatever reason I was not willing to pay
even the same amount. So, into my online shopping cart went 7 print copies ...
go figure.

~~~
Tichy
I feel the same, but lately most ebooks I looked at were a couple of EUR
cheaper than their paperback counterparts. I think the publishers/vendors are
learning.

------
shmerl
_> The shift from e-readers to tablets is putting a damper on e-book sales. _

I didn't understand this part. Why would tablets usage reduce e-books sales if
you can read e-books on your tablet all the same? If the author means the DRM
issue, then it's not really the case, since there are many DRM free e-books
sold already, and even with DRMed ones, DRM can be removed in most cases in
order to access them on any device you want.

~~~
chmars
There are DRM-free e-books but most aren't. The dominant e-book providers use
DRM. That's why you need specific software to read e-books such as iBooks
(soon to be available on the Mac, that wouldn't be necessary without DRM!),
Kindle and Adobe's DRM-infested e-book reading app.

DRM can be removed in theory but most users won't make it through Calibre and
the necessary scripts. In addition, in many countries, removing DRM is
illegal, and in almost all countries, offering software, knowledge etc. on
removing DRM even for legal purposes such as personal use is illegal. Removing
DRM is therefore not an approach compatible with a mass market.

~~~
DanBC
> DRM can be removed in theory but most users won't make it through Calibre
> and the necessary scripts.

I really hate Calibre, and I can't understand why someone hasn't forked it and
released a limited set of tools just for DRM stripping. Obviously this is
legally difficult but certainly do-able.

> In addition, in many countries, removing DRM is illegal,

It's weird that I am committing a criminal offence if I buy a DRMd ebook and
rip it to a format I can use, but I'm not committing a criminal offence if I
just download a DRM-free version of the same book.

~~~
tjoff
The scripts are typically not tied to Calibre. Just execute them with command
line arguments instead.

Of course that doesn't change anything legally but technically making a simple
"GUI" to de-drm ebooks is something that any high-level programmer could do in
a few minutes.

------
qq66
I think this is mostly price driven. The initial frenzy over Ebooks was the
promise of volume - 2000 books on my Kindle! Which has faded as people realize
that it would cost $200,000 to fill the Kindle, and the result is far less
useful/general-purpose than a printed book (no loans, sales, requires battery,
lasts shorter amount of time)

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thirdtruck
Are they factoring indie sales into these numbers?

Large media producers of all stripes are notorious for conflating _their_
sales with _all_ sales. That makes for a particularly egregious practice here,
where indies may account for 30-40% or more of sales.

------
cgrubb
I'm with John Carmack that really it is just better having everything in the
cloud:

[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1sjRD7NSec#t=3m57s](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1sjRD7NSec#t=3m57s)

So ebooks only growing at 5% with 25% market share surprises me. At that rate
it will take ebooks 10 years to draw even with print:

[http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Solve%5B0.25+*+1.05%5En...](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Solve%5B0.25+*+1.05%5En+%3D%3D+0.75*.95%5En%2C+n%5D)

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akandiah
I am not surprised. The quality of a majority of the e-books (especially those
found on the Kindle) are horrible! I really can't see people being prepared to
pay money for poor type-setting and layout.

~~~
bloodorange
I am forced to agree. Recently I was looking to buy a few books and the
reviews had a recurring theme: The e-books had a lot of typesetting,
grammatical issues etc. while the print books were fine. I bought printed
copies for all of them.

This gives the impression that the publishers don't give the e-books as much
priority as the print editions. Given this fact, I don't see how they can
complain if e-book sales are hitting a plateau.

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brg
I have a data point which supports the thesis, at least in the torso and tail.
I have a published two books within the last 16 months. For the first one,
published in early 2012, the Kindle sales were usually 2x to 3x that of the
print sales.

This held steady until around November of last year, and then suddenly
declined. Today print sales are nearly 2x that of the Kindle sales.

The important data point is that the Amazon sales ranks of both have remained
steady.

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mrmondo
This is really interesting, because me, my partner, colleges at work and
friends are all buying more ebooks than we've ever done before. All our work
books are now digital and the older generations in my family all now own
kindles (and use them).

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markbernard
This article only looks at sales in ebooks from publishers. It does not look
at independent sales figures, which make up a majority of the ebook market.

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ps4fanboy
every single time I look to get an eBook they are always more expensive than a
real copy plus shipping.

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adidash
Wonder how much piracy could be influencing these numbers.

