
Cars Get Street Smart - ivankirigin
http://spectrum.ieee.org/oct07/5577
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ivankirigin
Automated driving is the single biggest opportunity in robotics in the next
decade.

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axiom
I'm not sure I agree with that. I think the potential is definitely there, but
the regulatory burden is just too massive.

The potential impact of robotics on manufacturing and transportation is
absolutely staggering, and could probably be measured in the trillions of
dollars (speaking of just the next 10-15 years.) However, I just don't see it
happening there. The markets are just too heavily regulated and there are too
many competing political interests. It's next to impossible for a new company
to break into these markets, even with unlimited funding.

If the robotics revolution(tm) is going to happen anywhere, it's going to come
from either the consumer market or a tiny niche market that nobody's ever
heard of, and then spread from there.

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ivankirigin
Car keys.

They give the decision making power to the driver, and are what would shield
the car maker from a huge regulatory burden.

Any autonomous action will be dictated by the driver and the driver will be
given explicit instructions to continue paying attention to the road.

The same is true for today's cruise control.

Also, the consumer market is for low end processing, not advanced autonomy.
You won't get a revolution there.

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axiom
I'm not claiming that autonomous driving won't happen or won't be a massive
industry in the near future (30-40 years.) My feeling is just that it won't
happen there first. Here's a couple of reasons:

1\. It's a very complicated problem compared to others that could have a
similarly large impact.

2\. The cost of a mistake made by the robot is quite likely to kill someone.
This isn't just a problem as far as lawsuits go, but it's a problem because as
soon as the first accident occurs you're going to get a barrage of regulations
(and quite possibly bans) on autonomous driving.

3\. As soon as you can build a robot that can clean your floors, walk your
dog, and bring you a beer when you want it, you're going to sell a million
units in a year. Just look at the success of a fairly simple device like the
Roomba.

So my thinking is that autonomous dirving will be one of the later things
happen as compared to other adoptions of robotics.

Edit: this just reminded me of something. Not too long ago the University of
Toronto solar car team was driving their solar car down the 401 highway. The
driver lost control and ended up getting killed. Within a month all solar cars
were banned from driving on public roads in Ontario.

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ivankirigin
My original comment is about the business opportunity. Robots that can operate
independently in a particular environment will be deployed in the next decade
or two.

The problem is that lots of environments aren't standard, e.g. a particular
manufacturing plant might require a niche robot.

Freeway driving is very standard. Hard, but achievable.

I might be wrong on the time frame, but auto bots make up a very big single
application. That it is why the opportunity is huge.

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axiom
I completely agree with you there.

