
Intelligence Council Predicts 3D Printed Organs, Megacities, Brain Chips by 2030 - cyphersanctus
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/12/superhumans-instant-cities/
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Petrushka
I have the Washington Post from Jan 1, 2000. Below the fold is an article on
what the future would hold tech-wise for a child born that day. By 2010, we
were all supposed to be wearing wristbands with all of our medical information
on it, so doctors would simply have to scan them to gain our history. We also
wouldn't have cheap (meaning not thousands upon thousands of dollars) mobile
computers with the ability to access the internet from anywhere until 2020.

I can't remember any of the others, but all of the predictions for around now
(other then the smartphone one) are completely and totally off. All of these
prediction things are bullshit, as most futurist ideas generally are. There's
no accountability, because no one will remember the reports. It's ridiculous
that the government pays people to write these things, and just as ridiculous
that Wired publishes them.

I think SMBC put it best:

[http://www.smbc-comics.com/?db=comics&id=1968#comic](http://www.smbc-
comics.com/?db=comics&id=1968#comic)

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rthomas6
What is stopping something like the medical wristband thing? Nobody would wear
a bracelet like that, but why not an RFID card? That seems like a great idea.
What would it take to start something like that?

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MichaelSalib
Security is a big problem. Do you want everyone who gets within 10 feet of you
to have access to your complete medical history, name, social security number
and insurance information? Then there's the fact that RFIDs can't send much
data; you could have them send a UUID that allows doctors to look you up over
the internet, but now your wristband is a universal tracking device that
allows anyone to track your movements.

Beyond that, a medical history that can't be updated is pretty useless, but
our fragmented healthcare system isn't able to agree on standards for
electronic medical records or how to synchronize them across different
providers. Actually, getting doctors to use EMRs will probably be the work of
a generation.

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rthomas6
The UUID thing I think is a non-issue... RFIDs are already in passports,
credit cards, student IDs, etc. Having a UUID on the RFID that is associated
with a secure database seems like it would solve this problem.

Then the problem becomes, how do you get doctors and hospitals to use
something like this? Creating a private database that providers could
optionally use seems doable. The hard part would be creating a large enough
percentage of adoption at first. After that, more and more providers would see
the benefit of using the system, and patients might even start asking for it,
or preferring hospitals that have it.

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cbennett
Here is the actual report instead of just a summary, in case any one else was
looking for it. To be honest i found the technical projections/forecasts to be
quite spare on details (at least compared to the geopolitical ones; but I
suppose that is to be expected)

<http://www.acus.org/files/global-trends-2030-nic-lo.pdf>

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DanI-S
I love how our predictions of the future never account for the existence of
poor people. That's why they're always so wildly off; the vast bulk of
humanity are never factored into the equation.

While I don't doubt there'll be printable organs and brain-integrated silicon
by 2030, the majority of people will not benefit, and the tensions brought
about by escalating inequality will set progress back by years.

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trurl
Yes, my first thought was with rising healthcare costs whether even I'd be
able to afford these fancy manufactured organs should I need them.

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pi18n
I have nightmares about neural implants being available but out of my ability
to pay for them. And I am fortunate enough to be able to afford food and
shelter. Poverty is a serious problem that should be solved. Food, shelter,
healthcare, and neural implants should be available to everyone.

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whileonebegin
If you enjoy these kind of brain modification technologies, check out the book
The Brain That Changes Itself, which discusses neural plasticity
[http://www.amazon.com/Brain-That-Changes-Itself-
Frontiers/dp...](http://www.amazon.com/Brain-That-Changes-Itself-
Frontiers/dp/0143113100). This is the science that led to the cochlear implant
and may lead to other brain-interface devices.

Also, the part about biohacks and bio-weapons, reminded me of the movie
Prometheus.

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hcarvalhoalves
Everytime these predictions are made, the outcome seems to be the exact
opposite. That said, in 2030 I predict:

\- After toying with 3D printers for a while, they will go back to vat-grown
organs

\- With widespread Internet access, remote work being a reality and local
energy generation, people will leave the big cities seeking better life
quality in smaller, country-side cities

\- There won't be brain chips

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TDL
Interesting, the second point flies right in the face of the entire arc of
written history. Humanity has been increasingly migrating to urban areas. I
doubt that changes with the pervasiveness of the internet.

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purplelobster
I wouldn't be so sure. If it becomes feasible to work remotely all the time, I
would love to live in a smaller city or the countryside, and I'd be more free
to live close to my family and friends. Right now, we move cross country and
away from any friends or family we have, just for a new job. Rinse and repeat
after 10 years. It can lead to a lonely existence, but for a highly
specialized work force it's very necessary today.

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sdafdasdfasdf
Every futurist claim I've ever heard has overestimated human capability and
underestimated the impact of other things they possibly should have seen
coming.

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alexakarpov
mmhm, for one thing, I wonder why there's no mention of what's going to
replace/augment the relatively cheap fossil fuels of today. And point at some
massive current developments in that area.

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hwallace
Am I the only one who is pessimistic about a superhuman-capability future?

Regardless of the accuracy of the predictions.

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Narretz
We still know little about how memory works, and they speak of tweaking access
times and recall? I doubt there will be a breakthrough by 2030.

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bitwize
So a William Gibson dystopian nightmare. That's... nice to know.

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charonn0
I'm still waiting for my jetpack and flying car.

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pavel_lishin
People can barely navigate in two dimensions; I think that self-driving cars
are a necessary prerequisite for flying cars.

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charonn0
I was commenting more on the difficulty of predicting technological change
than complaining about the lack of personal flying machines.

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indiecore
What did forecast 2010 look like from 1990?

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swalsh
Honestly, not that far off... granted it seems to have more of a political
perspective then technological: this is paragraph one from the section on
Europe.

"First, European governments will be absorbed by the need to renegotiate the
social contract, i.e., the entitlement programs of the social welfare state
hammered out in the post-1945 period. This is not a choice but a necessity: a
large, aging population sits atop a shrinking labor pool and declining birth
rates, unemployment remains chronic, and growth rates are projected at 2-3
percent per year at best--acceptable by historical standards (as well as the
standards of other countries) but short of public expectations. Labor market
rigidities and lack of productivity growth will strengthen protectionist
tendencies."

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mattmanser
Huh? Not that far off?

That's totally off. There's no renegotiation going on of the social contract.

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cygx
Perhaps not on a large scale, but things like Agenda 2010 and Riester-Rente in
Germany are just that written small.

