
Airlines crack down on ‘mileage runs’ - 1337biz
http://seattletimes.com/html/travel/2024565123_airlinemileagerunstravelwisexml.html
======
themartorana
The House doesn't like to be gamed. It's no different than a casino in Vegas -
if you figure out how to beat The House, they change the rules (or the
direction your knees bend).

If it feels like you're getting a deal, that hole will eventually be closed.

~~~
grecy
This reminds me of my buddies beating a casino. It goes like this:

Play roulette, start with a low bet ($5) on black or white (50/50). If you
win, you've profited the amount of the original bet. If you lose, double your
bet and play again. Repeat until you win and you will have profited the amount
of the original bet. Repeat.

This works so long as you have enough cash to keep doubling the bet. Hitting
the maximum allowed bet on the table is not a problem, you just split it in
half and keep going.

My buddies at one point had ~$60k on the table, and didn't have enough to go
to ~$120k if they lost...

They did this for about two weeks straight, profiting something like $10k. One
morning when they tried to enter the casino, the guards at the door said they
were not welcome, and if they didn't leave immediately the police would be
called. They assume they had been spotted on camera, or the table operator
reported them.

~~~
gamblur
The Martingale simply does not work. An infinitely wealthy gambler employing
this strategy over an infinite time horizon on a fair game has a neutral
expectation. For every gambler who comes out ahead, another one comes out
behind. Additionally, real life gamblers aren't infinitely wealthy and casino
games are negative expectation.

If it "works" for you, you're just the survivor bias.

~~~
rtkwe
> For every gambler who comes out ahead

That's only true in games where the only winnings are the bets of the players.
Roulette, and blackjack, is different because your winnings on success are set
and paid by the house.

~~~
jcl
He's not saying that there is _literally_ one winner per loser, but that
statistically the group of winners and group of losers will be about the same
size, for a fair game.

------
mef
Avid mileage runner here. It does seem like the end of an era, though there
are still some smaller loopholes available to be exploited for cheap status.

For example, for Star Alliance flyers, until recently (yesterday in fact) you
could achieve Star Alliance Gold status (priority check in and boarding, free
checked bags, first to be upgraded, last to be bumped, lounge access, etc) for
cheap by registering for Aegean Airlines' loyalty program as they only
required 20k miles to achieve Gold status whereas most other Star Alliance
partners require 50k. You could also keep this status for 3 years as long as
you logged some miles each year (other airlines require you make the 50k level
every year.)

Yesterday Aegean too announced revisions to their loyalty program which pretty
much put an end to this. But there are still other loopholes in other
airlines' programs being rooted out by the dedicated.

~~~
SeoxyS
The trick I've used to get Star Alliance Gold really fast is to hop up using
status match challenges.

Find any _non-Star-Alliance_ airline where you can get silver status easily;
and email premiermatch@united.com. They'll probably give you gold status
immediately, and you have 3 months to fly 12,500 miles to secure it through
the following year.

FoundersCard right now has the benefit of instant silver status on Cathay
Pacific (OneWorld), no need for any flying. (Email me if you're interesting in
a referral link.)

Using this method, the only cost to getting gold status is (1) FoundersCard
membership dues (easily pays for itself with other discounts), and (2) a
round-trip to Europe or Asia, plus maybe a domestic flight to round up the
miles earned.

~~~
saryant
Note that most airlines now limit you to one status match per lifetime.

------
rjbrock
They are missing a huge point when it comes to Mileage runs. The majority of
people doing mileage runs are not trying to earn miles to spend, they are
doing it in order to make the next level of status.

For United the benefits of 1k might be much greater than Platinum (the next
level down), so if you are only 5 to 10k miles away you would do a mileage
run.

The article also fails to mention that United has not changed the way you earn
status. It is still miles traveled and mileage runs (assuming you have spent
enough during the year) are still viable

~~~
personZ
That -- the quest for the next level of status -- is exactly what the article
focuses on, so they didn't really miss it. And it explicitly mentions that the
status levels now require a minimum spend in addition to a minimum of miles.

------
davidw
_Shudder_ \- you'd have to pay me more than $500 to spend a weekend on an
airplane. It's very tiring holding the things up by the armrests :-/

~~~
willis77
If you are 25 years old, this is how many weekends you have left in your life
(on average):

[https://i.imgur.com/MA3YeuX.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/MA3YeuX.jpg)

Let's spend one on a plane so that we can make it into the gold lounge and get
free yogurt-covered raisons!

~~~
brandonmenc
I'll gladly trade a single weekend for ~2 years of priority boarding and
automatic first class upgrades.

~~~
mhb
What's the appeal of "priority" boarding? First one on the plane? Yay!

~~~
isamuel
It's a reasonable question, and it's one of the things about airline status
that I actually value a lot, so here's an attempt to answer it.

First, if you have carry-on luggage and the flight is full, this guarantees
you access to overhead space. That can be a big deal. Having to gate-check
your bag can be irritating if you've got things in there that you need, and
the longer the flight, the more important this is.

Second, at least on Delta, the people who board priority have a separate line.
That line continues to exist even after general boarding starts. The upshot is
that, even if you board with everyone else, you can cut the line and not have
to stand around waiting. If you prefer sitting down to standing in a line,
then this is valuable and good.

Third, and related to #2, boarding early means you're likely boarding with
other frequent travelers. Those people are better to board with because they
are quicker and more efficient, on average, about things like clearing out of
the aisle, getting settled, etc. This means less waiting around and being
jostled in the aisle.

All of this adds up to a much more pleasant experience.

~~~
mhb
Thanks

------
LandoCalrissian
That's kind of a bummer. I have read about some of these tricks before. It's
not something I would personally do since sitting on a plane for an entire
weekend just to get points sounds like a special kind of torture. Yet it was
nice knowing that there were people out there willing to do it just to game
the system.

------
shittyanalogy
I would love to see a study of whether it is more cost effective to be loyal
to an airline and collect miles or to just always buy the cheapest flight.

I imagine that the occasional free flight on non-blackout dates doesn't make
up the cost difference of always choosing the cheapest flight but I have no
data to back it up.

~~~
hoverkraft
Collecting miles isn't necessarily focused on earning free flights. The tiered
statuses offered by most airlines include a variety of other perks that can
make them attractive, and that couldn't readily be achieved via lowest-bidder
flying: dedicated lines at airport security, advance boarding, free upgrades,
free bags, waived fees, greater flexibility to change a ticket, dedicated
customer support numbers, etc.

While some of these can be purchased as one-offs, the cost of doing so would
probably offset the "cheapest flight" approach, and the convenience of
receiving them automatically has some value on its own.

The cost/benefit might still not be there, but it's not as straightforward as
the ticket savings vs. free flight savings question you put forward. You have
to also bear in mind that many miles hunters are logging some (or most) of
their travel on an employer's dime.

~~~
mindslight
Those "benefits" basically amount to an easing up of the legacy airlines'
prison-camp style. Why would one want to reward that instead of simply
choosing the airlines that treat you more like a person to begin with?

------
driverdan
This is a shortsighted mistake that is costing airlines something very
important: loyalty. Anyone who frequents FlyerTalk or other airline related
sites knows that frequent flyers are switching away from the devalued and
decoupled miles airlines because of the changes.

Cracking down on milage runs is one thing. It makes sense for airlines to
price flights according to their value (including rewards value). But tying
rewards to spending instead of miles is a mistake. Many people like myself
will just move to airlines who still reward their travelers well.

~~~
apendleton
Two things: firstly, the analysis I've seen suggests that some kinds of
business travels lose and some gain, depending on the travel patterns -- in
particular, frequent short-duration flyers (e.g., people who commute from DC
to NYC twice a week) gain, while infrequent long-distance travelers (e.g.,
people racking up miles going NYC to Shanghai a few times a year) lose. So
maybe the airlines think they'll one class of traveler for every one of
another class that they lose?

Secondly, the overarching assumption is that American (and its alliance) will
follow the other major players and switch once the merger is done, at which
point there won't really be anywhere to go, at least for people mostly
traveling domestically in the US. They control the market.

------
x1798DE
Hardly sounds like a "crack down", more like closing a loophole. And, frankly,
it seems like a loophole that needs closing - the airlines were essentially
paying people to take longer flights.

------
Osmium
I find long-haul cheap flights so miserable that, honestly, anyone who's
prepared to do this for the miles I think deserves them. I can't say I'm a big
believer in money for its own sake, but if there's one thing I'd want it for
it's business class. My god.

------
ssharp
> The last point is essential. Leff told me about a mileage run he took in
> 2003. United ran a promotion where its elite fliers could get five-times
> bonus miles, instead of the double miles they were ordinarily entitled to.
> So he flew round-trip to Singapore for $700 and pocketed around 100,000
> MileagePlus miles, then enough to redeem for a round-trip business class
> ticket to Europe.

Last time I looked, domestic one-way business class reward seats were going
for 25,000 points on MileagePlus, and that's their "Saver" reward, which isn't
available as much as their "Standard" reward, which is 50k each way for
business class.

So it sounds like United is trimming your ability to accrue miles, but also
requiring more miles to earn a seat.

------
markpundmann
Classic case of Adverse Selection:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adverse_selection](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adverse_selection)

------
idlewords
I always liked that the reward for mileage runs was... getting to fly some
more!

------
crusso
This is great. I fly because I need to get somewhere, not because I'm trying
to game the system to board ahead of the other travelers with my elite status
or "earn" bonus mile tickets which just adds extra ticket costs for all of the
rest of us.

------
IgorPartola
I don't get it. What does an elite status really buy you? If I had to fly
somewhere and had an extra $500+ for an extra "miles run" I sure as hell would
find a more entertaining way to spend it than to take an entire weekend to fly
around. How many of these runs would you have to do to justify it, and is it
worth it?

Edit: I should ask it this way: how much do you have to pay directly to get
all the perks Elite status gives you? Can you buy Elite status for $500?
$1,500? This is as opposed to how much do you have to spend on extra tickets
you don't need to get the upgrades? Basically, I assume that it's cheaper to
buy extra tickets and fly around, than to buy the status directly (otherwise
people wouldn't do it). The question is how much cheaper is it?

~~~
pzb
It depends on the airline. A few years ago, when I used to fly and average of
at least one round trip per week, including many from the US to Europe it
would get me: \- Free domestic upgrades to business class \- Access to showers
in the airport, behind security \- Hot food and free drinks in the lounge \-
Priority access for boarding and no baggage charges \- Early access to seats
for reward usage (including transatlantic business class upgrade) \- Access to
excellent ground agents to help adjust itineraries, including frequent waiver
of change fees \- A nice quiet place behind security to wait during layovers

That was basically SA gold. If you are higher tier (e.g. LH HON Circle), then
add things like free full service restaurant and private passport control to
the list.

------
redblacktree
Do you have to actually take the flight, or is buying the ticket enough?

~~~
mherdeg
Modern "mileage runs" require the travel to actually be completed.

In the late 1990s/early 2000s, people used to go on "baht runs", buying a
cheap Thai Airways airpass that allowed many segments of intra-Thailand travel
for a very low price, and earning many "qualifying segments" on TG's partner
carriers, allowing people to make top-tier United status for under $1000 (by
getting 100+ qualifying segments).

There were reports that some people didn't actually fly the trips (e.g.
supposedly some people paid locals to board with their boarding passes).

These days, like the "pudding guy" and the "buying Treasury bonds with credit
cards" and the "dollar coins", are over.

~~~
LandoCalrissian
I remember reading a story where a guy was paying people in some Asian country
to take flights for him so he could get miles. I recall it working out for
him.

------
S_A_P
Seems like a very odd way to spend your time and money. I would argue that the
same amount of effort spent trying to make more money would likely pay off
better in the long term.

------
adnam
This is sadder than sad

