
Ask HN: How do you know if the startup you are working at will succeed? - thomgo
What are signs that it is worth continuing to work at the startup you are currently working at? How can you tell whether it will lead to a better career outcome that taking up other opportunities?
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ramtatatam
I worked for failed startup, and now I work for successful startup.

How do I know the one I work for now is successful? Founders are transparent
about burn rate and available funds and also they do not hesitate to share
information about revenue. This does not sound like much but from my
experience is already a good sign.

Maybe some users here will find it difficult to believe but previous startup I
worked for (the one that failed) was not transparent at all. We would hear
stories of potential big.co customer that will bring millions and then... we
would hear about another potential big.co customer that would bring
millions... And every month or two we would hear the same story. And then one
day we was informed that the company can no longer keep us so we are released
with immediate effect.

Revenue is (usually) a sign that people want the product you build. And if
people want it hard enough to put their money into it then you know you solve
a real problem and that there is actually market for it.

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batt4good
This question is a non-starter. Of course nobody knows. Even if the startup is
an astronomic amount of funding and strong growth it could still fail. One
man's definition of success also drastically varies from another's.

Enjoy your life, put some money in the bank.

If you're lucky, your hard work and intellect will reward you one day.
Granted, only hard work get's you a seat at the table, connections might
improve the cards you're dealt.

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thrown-away-32
I was at a startup that failed, I was actually the last non-founder to leave.
Not because I didn't see the problems, but because I was the last one of us to
find a new job. Everyone began looking for a new opportunity around 6-12
months before our runway actually ran out.

Here were some of the issues:

Over time, the information flow from our founders degraded in quality and
quantity. When you're at a company of 5-10 people, everyone should know
everything.

When engineers left they weren't replaced. Tech transfer was just a formality,
and projects were shelved entirely. If a startup isn't growing, it's dying.

The founders attempted the same monetization strategy for about 2 years with
zero success. Not as in "unsustainable" but literally, not a dime!

So TL;DR: if your company is shrinking, non-founders kept in the dark, and
nothing seems to be changing in strategy when no one is paying you, the
company is probably going to die and you should move on. However, staying
around until the end of your runway will lead to a glowing reference for
future job searches.

~~~
thomgo
How would you qualify a startup as growing? Is it limited to getting new
customers?

~~~
thrown-away-32
In the abstract, growth means "more." Its good to ask "more what?" but the
"what" depends on your business/market. You should be able to ask your
founders what their growth metrics are and what they look like.

If your startup is growing, it means that you as an employee will have more
work to do, problems to solve, bugs to fix, features to ship, employees to
help onboard, meetings to schedule, etc.

When that starts to stagnate (no new hires, no new sales, no new bug reports
or feature requests, nothing new to discuss with colleagues, etc) that implies
a lack of growth.

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larrykubin
I've worked on a couple of SaaS startups and it was important that MRR was
growing every month and there was low churn / cancellations.

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hkiely
There are often key assumptions the financial statements are based upon.
Without clarity, you would never know.

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billconan
I always assume it will fail. I ask what I can learn/gain even if it fails.

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scott31
Investors are a pretty big signal for this. For example startups that raised
money from YC is pretty much guaranteed to be successful.

~~~
seattle_spring
Can you define successful? Only one single company from YC has gone public. To
me, having "successful" illiquid stock is the definition of "not successful"
from the employee's perspective.

~~~
thomgo
That's a really good point, but I assume there have been other YC Companies
that have exited (acquired, etc.)

~~~
seattle_spring
Being acquired very frequently yields a payout for investors and executives,
and a $0.00 check for rank-and-file employees (or even less if they foolishly
exercised their stock before acquisition).

