

An EV Future is Inevitable - koblenski
http://sam-koblenski.blogspot.com/2013/09/an-ev-future-is-inevitable.html

======
mikestew
There's an awful lot of hand-waving going on in this article. A Leaf's range
just magically doubles in "6-10 years" due to improvements in battery tech.
More and faster chargers, despite the fact that Blink has filed for
bankruptcy. Battery prices have "plenty of room to fall". There is little to
back any of this up, and the solar panel idea just solidifies my thinking the
author is engaging in wishful thinking.

Range isn't going to get magically solved. A Macbook Air gets amazing battery
life because of advances in getting more computing with fewer electrons, not
because batteries are all that much better. In contrast, the energy required
to push a car down the road isn't going to be reduced by orders of magnitude.
So it's up to battery tech, which has been slow to advance.

We'll see what happens with the charging infrastructure. Blink seems to having
a hard time making a go of it, and their rates are pushing up against the cost
of gasoline if one charges at the mall.

I know of no reason for battery prices to fall. Maybe they will, but I
wouldn't stake my reputation on it.

Yes, electric cars are simple and require little maintenance. You know what
else require little maintenance? My 2005 Scion xB. Tires, oil, and filters in
70K miles. The Leaf doesn't need oil and most filters, but to me those two
things are trivial. If the Scion is typical of most Toyotas, by the time the
Scion needs an engine rebuild, we'll have probably replaced the battery pack
in the Leaf at least once.

I love our Leaf, and I'd buy another one (or a Tesla). But to describe EVs as
an inevitable future is to ignore or wish away the current limitations.

~~~
koblenski
Battery energy density is improving at about 7% per year.
([http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1074183_how-much-and-
how...](http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1074183_how-much-and-how-fast-
will-electric-car-battery-costs-fall)). After 10 years, that's a 97%
improvement. If one of the new battery technologies becomes feasible with all
of the new investment in battery research, there could be a much bigger jump
in energy density before then.

~~~
001sky
That's not really what the attached article says. That article says that (1)
nobody has any reliable data; (2) the general trend is assumed to be down; (3)
the order of magnitude of the current data variance is 10x the "guestimate" of
the future growth rate. Not sure this is the type of data you want to
extrapolate from.

------
timje1
" _What better way to extend the range than to slap some high efficiency
panels on the car 's roof and drive all day long? I'm sure that solar panels
will reach the point where it would be possible to have an EV with infinite
range as long as the sun is out.._"

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it was my understanding that there isn't enough
energy in the sunlight hitting a few square metres on top of a car to keep it
going even in the middle of a summer's day - unless we count the extremely low
drag 'only works on the salt flats' type experimental 'vehicles'. Even if
solar panels get to 100% efficiency, we won't have cars (traditional, 500kg+
ones) that can drive all day long off its panels.

~~~
hedgie13
This sentence is a good sign that the author has no idea what he is talking
about.

Solar constant is 1360 W/m². You can collect 1.3 kW (about 2 horsepowers) from
1 square meter if sun is directly overhead and conversion efficiency is 100%,
no cloud, absolutely transparent atmosphere (no clouds).

Solar panels on a car can be useful, though -- to run a small fan when parked
on a hot sunny day. Not much more.

~~~
koblenski
I admit that the idea of driving on solar panel energy was more of a pie-in-
the-sky idea, but it's not as bad as you're making it out to be. The Leaf's
cross section is about 8 m^2. If we assume 5 m^2 can be covered with 50%
efficiency solar panels and using an Earth's surface solar constant of 400
W/m^2, that would give 2 kWh of energy to the motor/batteries. If the car can
be driven at 5 miles/kWh efficiency (already possible and improvements will
make it more common), that adds 10 miles of range per hour of solar charging.
If you drive 600 miles in 12 hours (including breaks where the solar panels
are still charging), then the battery only needs to supply about 500 miles of
that to drive all day.

It's a range extension idea, not a battery replacement idea.

~~~
myself248
Theoretical max efficency of PV is 40% and we're not likely to get there any
time soon. Do the math: [http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/09/dont-be-
a-pv-eff...](http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/09/dont-be-a-pv-
efficiency-snob/)

We're at about 15% now but let's be generous and use 20%. Neglecting the
mounting angles and resulting reflection, that gives 640 watts collectible if
you cover the whole car.

So you're collecting 3.2 miles of range per hour of peak sun. Note that the
sun is not at peak elevation for 12 hours per day.

The middle of the country averages about 5 peak-sun-hours per day, so that
means you're adding 15 miles of range per day of sitting in the sun.

It's not nothing, but it's very close to nothing. Useful to keep the car from
self-discharging while it sits in long-term parking at the airport, perhaps.
But it's not gonna provide meaningful range extension. The average EV has
about 100-mile range, so if we assume a moving average of 33mph to make the
math easy, you're moving for 3 hours, during which you collect enough power to
actually move for 10 more miles. If you happen to be driving at noon in
summer...

~~~
koblenski
Summer peak sun hours will be much more than the annual average, when road
trips are normally taken. Admittedly, it's not 12 hours, probably closer to
7-8 hours.

Theoretical max efficiency still uses a number of assumptions to get to 40%.
If we learned anything from the path of semiconductors, it's that we shouldn't
try to predict what's impossible. According to these 10-year predictions,
current microprocessors are impossible to manufacture. And so were last
year's, and the year before, going all the way back to the 1980s.

I'm not going to accept that infinite range cars are an impossibility. They
may be impossible with today's technology, but what about the technology we
have 30 years from now? Maybe solar charging is not the way we will do it, but
I'm sure we will see it happen.

~~~
myself248
Theoretical maximum is not talking about manufacturability, we're talking
about within the laws of physics conceivably possible.

Theoretical max efficiency of PV is about 40%, in the same way that
theoretical max transistor density is one per atom. It's about the
characteristics of sunlight as much as anything, and advances in manufacturing
may bring us closer to the limit but not beyond it.

~~~
koblenski
Many of the arguments claiming that Moore's law would end were based on the
physical properties of light in lithography and the material characteristics
of silicon substrate and gate oxide interactions. These are issues that people
thought were physical limitations, but we found ways around them.

Theoretical max efficiency of PV also relies on assumptions about the physical
properties of light in absorption and the materials being used. I'm not saying
we know how to get around these limitations right now. I'm saying that we
can't predict future innovations that will make the impossible possible.

------
eip
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and would again today, because we still cannot duplicate them.

In this book we will deal only with one invention: the Electronic Shield. This
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of the future. It contains the basic knowledge on how to make a new electrical
production device that will be electric like a magnet is magnetic and this is
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The search for this new source of energy started in the very early twenties
with two questions.

How can a battery ever become discharged or charged when everything that goes
out must return and everything you put into it must go out? Next, if a piece
of iron can be used as an electro-magnet and if this same Iron is made into a
hard steel it becomes a permanent magnet and a source of magnetic energy. If a
source of magnetic energy can be produced in as simple a manner as that, how
can the elements used in making the battery be rearranged to produce a
permanent electrical source? This book is the result of over fifty years of
research, experimentation, study, and with the great help and new knowledge of
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Nature not only gives you free water, air, and sunshine; with this new
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as Nature intended, fulfill your mission in life in joy, happiness and
individual freedom. It is yours for the taking.

[http://www.nuenergy.org/solar-radiant-energy-and-the-
electri...](http://www.nuenergy.org/solar-radiant-energy-and-the-electrinium-
battery/)

------
pjc50
Meanwhile, Toyota claim that hybrid cars are at a "tipping point" in EU sales:
[http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4984ab8e-196d-11e3-afc2-00144feab7...](http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4984ab8e-196d-11e3-afc2-00144feab7de.html)

“We are increasing our sales in hybrid a lot,” said Toyota Europe President
Didier Leroy. “In western Europe 27 to 30 per cent of our sales will be
hybrids this year. In the EU it will be 25 per cent.”

Obviously that's less than half of new car sales, and the total fleet will
remain mostly petrol+diesel for the next decade, but hybrids and EVs will
start to win on economy grounds for commuters fairly soon. Don't forget that
in the UK we're paying £1.40 / litre, which is about $10/USgal (
[https://www.google.co.uk/#q=1.4+%C2%A3%2Fliter+in+%24%2Fgall...](https://www.google.co.uk/#q=1.4+%C2%A3%2Fliter+in+%24%2Fgallon&safe=off)
)

------
nextstep
EVs have been around for a long time, and the Leaf is not the first "mass-
produced EV" as the article claims. In 1996, GM produced the EV1:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_EV1](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_EV1)

Electric Vehicles have been around for about 100 years or more:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_vehicle#History](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_vehicle#History)

~~~
koblenski
The Leaf is the first mass-produced EV _for sale_ that consumers can actually
buy and own. The EV1 could only be leased.

------
stirbot
Just a note: the Volt price drop was due to the replacement of certain
expensive components with simpler or cheaper alternatives, not simply
efficiency in manufacturing. Source: buddies work for GM.

My next car will be an EV. I'm going to drive my econobox nearly into the
ground then buy something reasonably priced and keep the ICE car for long
trips. I got as much a rush from the Volt instant torque as I did from a CTS-V
wagon (though not as much as the Z06. That company loaner program is a nice
perk)

~~~
darkspaten
The torque is very nice, I traded in a `09 370Z for a Volt and have found my
driving style adjusted more conservatively (with a side benefit of less
speeding tickets.)

I've leased a Volt for 12+ months now and consumed < 30 gallons of gasoline in
that time. My chief complaint is not about the car, but about the lack of
metered charging stations. The charging stations in my area (of which there
are a fair number) are flat rate $2.50 regardless if I require $0.05 or $0.90
(my max residential rate charge expense) of energy or whether I'm parked for 5
min or 500 min.

------
001sky
This article has to be paid propoganda (er, PR). [1]

______

[1] Other articles in this (gag!) series:

The Rest of the Leaf Series:

Part 1: The Acquisition

Part 2: The Summer Drive

Part 3: The Winter Drive

Part 4: Frills and Maintenance

Part 5: The Data

Part 6: The Future

~~~
joshuahedlund
Why? Not saying I know that it is or isn't, but I could see myself doing
similar just for the value of the links / hits / personal brand, let alone the
fun of deeply analyzing something like this.

~~~
001sky
If you've found this piece to be "deeply analyzing" perhaps you could explain
its merits in more convincing terms?

