
Have more famous people died in 2016? - KC8ZKF
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-38329740
======
sdrothrock
I've heard a lot of pet theories about this year, but mine is this:
nationwide/worldwide popularity is a relatively new thing that was initiated
largely by the advent of the TV.

TV was standardized in 1941, but World War II interrupted the rise of TV pop
culture.

We're really starting to enter the years where people who had widespread
popularity due to TV and movies are starting to die; 2016 is really just the
beginning of a trend that will continue from now on.

I think there will probably be another bump around 2060 or so, when people who
were really popularized by the internet start to die.

~~~
gpvos
Indeed, the article mentions this (or at least the first part):

 _> He thinks that the increase isn't particularly surprising, because we're
now half a century on from the flourishing of both TV and pop culture in the
1960s, which massively expanded the overall pool of public figures._

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pbiggar
I think it's the stature of the celebrities that died, not their quantity.
While many celebrities are noteworthy, most known only to a niche audience or
didn't significantly affect people's lives.

In 2014, the only legend was Robin Williams.

In 2015, BB King, Leonard Nimoy and Terry Pratchett died, but all had niche
audiences.

In 2016, a lot of legends died: Bowie, Prince, Fidel Castro, Muhammed Ali.
Each of those was truly transformative for their audiences and society as a
whole. And that's leaving out Leonard Cohen, Alan Rickman, Harper Lee and
Nancy Reagan, each of whom had about the stature of 2015's most noteworthy
deaths.

~~~
coldtea
> _In 2014, the only legend was Robin Williams._

If you don't count Shirley Temple, Joe Cocker, Mickey Rooney, Jack Bruce,
Richard Attenborough, Gabriel Garcia Marquez and others.

~~~
berdario
I never heard of Joe Cocker, Mickey Rooney, Jack Bruce and I heard of Shirley
Temple just a couple weeks ago (in a discussion about how she's not as well
known outside the US)

These people are definitely not as POP as Bowie, Prince, George Michael,
Muhammad Ali

OTOH, also saying that Nancy Reagan has the same stature as Robin Williams
seems utterly wrong

I was born when Reagan was closing in to the end of his mandate, so that's
probably why Nancy for me doesn't ring any bell. Likewise, Shimon Peres is
much more noticeable, probably due to both timing and geographical proximity
(I live in Europe)

I guess that the "legendary stature" of such figures is qualified by lasting
several decades and being well known across borders, attributes shared by only
few

On topic: there might indeed be an increase behind this trend, but if deaths
are a poisson process, I'm not surprised at all that this year has seen a
clustering of them

~~~
saghm
In my experience, Shirley Temple is much more well-known than Prince, but I
guess this might not be representative of the wider population

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hashkb
This trend will continue forever until we start decreasing the amount of
celebrities we create.

~~~
vinchuco
Or the ones people pay attention to (particularly postmortem).

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rubyfan
Is this a baby boomer thing? Seems like there will be a period soon where lots
more people will be in retirement or dying. You'd expect boomer era celebs to
also be dying in line with normies.

Perhaps their stats are better looked at after normalizing for age and
lifestyle. Weekly views of seasonal trend is probably better than arbitrary Q1
vs remaining year. Might see there's just an overall uptrend. Also would be
worth looking at celeb vs. non-celeb death rate.

~~~
sandworm101
Partly correct imho. These arent dead boombers but people who boomers care
about. As news these days is generally aimed at boomers, we hear more about
these deaths than the deaths of celebs that appeal to other generations. When
a reality tv or twitter superstar dies, and the do, tv news wont even mention
it.

~~~
coldtea
> _As news these days is generally aimed at boomers_

Enough already. No boomer myself (born in the eighties), but we have been
hearing this crap and people blaming the boomers for like 3+ decades.

News today is not "generally aimed at boomers", except if Kanye and the
Kardasians are of interest to boomers...

~~~
sandworm101
According to neilsons, the average age of viewers for the top-rated us news
channel (fox) is over 65. Ill believe you when cnn stops running commercials
for stool softener and medicare suppliment insurance.

Kanye's breakdown wasnt mainstream news until he started associating with
trump ... a boomer.

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DanBC
They've just announced the death of George Michael.

Here's an 80's tv show where he appears alongside Morrissey and Tony Blackburn
to discuss music.

[http://www.post-punk.com/morrissey-george-michael-talk-
about...](http://www.post-punk.com/morrissey-george-michael-talk-about-
breakdancing-and-joy-division/)

He's spot on about Paul Morley too.

~~~
poisonarena
guy was a genius

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mdekkers
....and we can add George Michael to the list...

~~~
poisonarena
Fastlove :(

------
gild
As an American, I think that this year feels more significant because there
are more names recognized by Americans. That list is very UK-centric, which
isn't a surprise considering the source of the article.

Of the list, for years 2012-2015 I only recognized around a third of the names
but for 2016 I recognized about half.

Americans have a very disproportionate effect on the internet as a whole, so
I'd expect that having more American-recognizable names would distort
impressions about the celebrity fatality rate.

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Jedd
I have twice (four years apart) got into arguments with colleagues who have
attempted to use the phrase 'pre-prepared' \-- it's disappointing to see the
beeb legitimise this aliteracy.

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dbg31415
Obituaries get attention... I don't know how to test the hypothesis that more
famous people died than average... we would have to have a defined quantity of
famous people... or perhaps number of famous obituaries vs. population... I
suspect the % of "famous" people goes up over time. Imagine all the reality TV
stars...

~~~
ConceptJunkie
The percentage of famous people that everyone knows goes up every year, so
each year you are more likely to know the famous people who died. Also, by the
time you're in your 40s or 50s, most of the famous people you knew when you
were a kid are starting to die of old age.

In music for instance, there was a huge wave of "classic rock" musicians who
became really big starting around 1965 through the late 70s. These people are
at least in their 70s now, which means they are starting to die of old age.
Except Keith Richards. I'm starting to wonder if he's immortal.

~~~
wavefunction
Percentage of what? If you can show that the rate of people attaining
celebrity is outpacing the rate of population growth, I will accept the claim.

~~~
jacalata
I interpreted the claim as "penetration of famous people" \- same percentage
of people are famous but the percentage of the population that has heard of
each one goes up.

~~~
lambertsimnel
I wonder whether celebrities are less likely to be confined to a small niche
now than in the past. I assume they are less constrained by geography, but
audiences are more fragmented by the Internet, etc.

Assuming a constant proportion of the population is famous and that more and
more people know of a typical famous person over time, eventually every famous
person would be known to everybody.

------
LargeCompanies
Here's a 2016 celebrity death list...

Bowie, Prince, George Michael, Glen Fry, Natalie Cole...

[http://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-
news/pictures/celebrity-...](http://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-
news/pictures/celebrity-deaths-in-2016-stars-weve-lost-w161657)

------
dbg31415
Found a simple way to test... IMDB allows us to query against death year.

2016 = 3,636 people with IMDB pages to date have died
([http://www.imdb.com/search/name?death_date=2016&ref_=nm_ov_d...](http://www.imdb.com/search/name?death_date=2016&ref_=nm_ov_dth_year)
\-- doesn't include all politicians or other famous folks, but certainly some
of those people had IMDB pages at this point.)

2015 = 4,064 (My guess is the higher numbers were due to more time for data
entry / updates.)

2014 = 3,793

2013 = 3,764

2012 = 3,917

2011 = 3,780

2010 = 3,676 (Someone can do math on this, but I don't see a huge swing in the
last 7 years.)

2000 = 2,395

1990 = 1,856

1980 = 1,555 (Possibly due to some data not being entered once we start
getting "way far" back.)

Another view...
[http://www.imdb.com/search/name](http://www.imdb.com/search/name)

1920s = 2,185
[http://www.imdb.com/search/name?death_date=1920-01-01,1929-1...](http://www.imdb.com/search/name?death_date=1920-01-01,1929-12-31)

1930s = 3,608

1940s = 5,805 vs 2,556,000,053 total world population in 1950
[http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762181.html](http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762181.html)

1950s = 7,381 vs 3,039,451,023 (+6.92% growth in deaths of famous people / all
people vs previous decade)

1960s = 10,977 vs 3,706,618,163 (+21.95%)

1970s = 14,044 vs 4,453,831,714 (+6.48%)

1980s = 17,662 vs 5,278,639,789 (+6.11%)

1990s = 21,722 vs 6,082,966,429 (+6.73%)

2000s = 30,883 vs 6,848,932,929 (+26.27% -- an especially brutal decade for
celebrities)
[http://www.imdb.com/search/name?death_date=2000-01-01,2009-1...](http://www.imdb.com/search/name?death_date=2000-01-01,2009-12-31)

2010s to date = 26,823

(2010s normalized at current rate = 38,319 vs 7,584,821,144 projected... or
+12.04% vs previous decade)

Lots of things going on here... IMDB in the past didn't record a lot of
international movies -- certainly part of the lower numbers compared to modern
records. But there is a growth in celebrity over time. Celebrity death rates
seem to vary quite a bit though. Welcome anyone checking my math... I haven't
had coffee yet and this is far from scientific. (=

