

App-Powered Car Service Leaves Cabs in the Dust - MikeF
http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2011/04/app-stars-uber/

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unwind
This:

 _Even if all the world’s fastest supercomputers were put to work, they
couldn’t generate a perfect algorithm to solve this classic puzzle, which
computer scientists call the traveling-salesman problem._

made me a bit sad; it's overcomplicating the description by introducing the
word "algorithm", when just "generate a perfect solution to this classic
puzzle" would have been so much simpler, and also actually correct.

I had read more Wired, this is where I would lament over how it used to be
better, and chase kids off my lawn, I guess.

Sure it's a "popular" text, but when it's _easier_ to be correct, I think it's
a bit saddening. This is a quite central sentence in their description of
Uber's algorithms, so I think they should have gotten it right.

~~~
allwein
I'm actually going to support Wired's wording on this one.

While it's possible to come up with a perfect solution to any specific
instance of the traveling salesman problem, it's the actual process of solving
that instance, the algorithm, that's actually interesting.

Remember, solving the traveling salesman problem is easy/trivial, it's finding
the shortest/optimal path that's hard. And for that you need a good algorithm.

~~~
kragen
There are several errors in your comment (and in Wired's wording).

Computers don't normally come up with algorithms; programmers come up with
algorithms. Using the algorithms we've come up with so far, TSP of the
complete graph of 4000 points, or even Euclidean TSP of 4000 points, is
intractable except in special cases.

We don't have a proof that there's no tractable or efficient algorithm. We
have evidence in the form of an NP-completeness proof, but although unlikely,
it's possible that P=NP and there's an efficient algorithm for TSP.

As far as we know, it's possible that a computer doing some kind of search for
algorithms — genetic programming is the sexiest kind of search, but of course
not the only one — could find such an algorithm. We just don't have any idea.
One of the consequences of the unresolved status of the P=NP conjecture and
the infancy of AGI is that we can make very few statements about the
capabilities of yet-undiscovered algorithms, or how easy or hard they are to
discover.

> Remember, solving the traveling salesman problem is easy/trivial, it's
> finding the shortest/optimal path that's hard.

You're quibbling about technicalities, and you happen to be wrong about them.
Formally, TSP is a decision problem: whether there exists a path shorter than
a given length L. That's not "easy/trivial". As far as we know, it's as hard
as computing the shortest path. Maybe you're talking about finding a path
covering all vertices, which is not "solving the traveling salesman problem".

~~~
9999
I don't understand why they're bringing the traveling salesman problem into
this at all. The core problem Uber has to solve is simply to get one driver
(of many) to the customer as fast as possible, not to determine the most
efficient route between all of the customers.

~~~
kragen
It's not that simple. They need to figure out which assignment of drivers to
customers maximizes some utility function. If they just send the closest
available driver, that may degrade service for some other customer, or leave
an important area of the city uncovered for the next unexpected call.

It's not the same problem as TSP, but it's surely reducible to it, given the
NP-completeness proof.

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kragen
An interesting thing about this is that they're still basically a taxicab
service; they just have a better user interface and scheduling algorithm.
While the disappearance of taxi stands and radio dispatcher squawks in favor
of network servers and algorithms may highlight how much of our everyday
infrastructure serves an informational rather than a purely logistical
purpose, it's the small story here.

The bigger story is Craigslist ridesharing, and carpooling startups like
Zimride, PickupPal, Carpool to School, and CarBuddy. In countries like the US,
where the average car has something like 5 seats of which 1.2 are full on any
given trip, taxi and bus services are only able to exist _at all_ due to an
market failure of truly mind-boggling proportions.

Any time you drive _anywhere_ in a city, there's probably a reputable,
trustworthy person or two within a couple of blocks who wants to go close to
where you're going, at the same time. If you knew about them, you could go
pick them up (the 80% of the time that you don't mind driving an extra couple
of blocks), and magically your cost of driving would drop by half or two-
thirds.

It's a good deal for the passengers, too, compared to a cab. If your cost is
50¢ per mile, they might pay 25¢ per mile, compared to some 90¢ per mile in a
taxicab; and of course, as with Über, they can just walk outside as the
distance meter on their phone approaches zero.

~~~
OstiaAntica
Transportation inefficiency isn't a market failure-- cab supply is
deliberately limited by most cities, and the price a cab can charge is fixed
by the city as well. Similarly, jitney buses or other forms of efficient
private mass transport are completely outlawed. The government doesn't want
private bus routes competing with its clunky, unionized services.

The empty seat problem in private cars is more of an issue with personal
safety and the broad increase in crime over the past fifty years. Technology
should help here, but the reason low-tech hitchhiking has all but disappeared
is that it is not safe for the rider or the driver. This didn't used to be the
case-- the boomer generation hitchhiked across the country to college, for
example.

~~~
sedachv
"The empty seat problem in private cars is more of an issue with personal
safety and the broad increase in crime over the past fifty years."

It's more of an issue of the American perception of danger, and the anti-
hitchhiking laws passed as a result. Lots of people still hitchhike all across
the US.

~~~
hugh3
I'd say that the danger in picking up a random stranger as a passenger isn't
really about the danger that they're going to try to kill you. There's any
number of other ways it can go wrong. They can smell bad. They can talk loudly
or offensively. They can start going off with their theory about how the Jews
run the country through the freemasons. They can be drunk and throw up. They
can wind down the window and scream obscenities at nearby women. They can...
well, ask any taxi driver for stories about what the worst things random
strangers can do to your car.

If I were going to pick up random strangers to disrupt my otherwise-peaceful
me-time alone in my car, it'd have to have a _big_ incentive, and being able
to split the money I pay for gas just ain't it. Being a taxi driver is a sucky
job, and I don't wanna do it in my spare time for cents per mile.

~~~
kragen
Hmm, you have a good point — aside from people in the US being paranoid about
crime, they're also unbelievably intolerant, to the point that they're not
comfortable around teenagers talking loudly, drunk people, or people with
different political views.

~~~
hugh3
I'm not sure you're in a position to be lecturing others about tolerance after
a comment like that.

"Tolerance" is a noble concept in some sense. It means I respect the right of
others to be stupid and annoying in the abstract, not necessarily in my
passenger seat.

~~~
kragen
I'm a US citizen, and I don't claim to be an exception to our general lack of
tolerance; I mean, I've been unreasonably annoyed at teenagers talking loudly,
or people dropping cigarettes on the sidewalk, or making racist remarks, just
like most people from the US. I'm just observing a fact.

As for "noble concepts", well, there's the kind of tolerance that's a "noble
concept", and then there's the kind of tolerance that's an actual description
of how some people behave toward other people, some of the time. Like, how
Argentinians behave toward children, that people from the US don't. Or, for
that matter, how Argentinians behave toward US tourists.

Turns out that there are real benefits to turning down your annoyance and
smarter-than-thou attitude and digging folks who don't shop at the same
supermarket you do. I can't always do it, but I'm glad when I can.

(By the way, when you complain about how awful it is to have to talk to
someone who's stupid, you should consider how that would sound to someone
who's a lot smarter than you are.)

~~~
hugh3
Well that's great, but are we still talking about how folks don't want random
strangers riding in their cars? Because I _still_ don't want random strangers
riding in my car, and I don't reckon that's in any way unreasonable.

~~~
kragen
I never said people from the US were unreasonable, just unbelievably
intolerant. That's a matter of preference, and I don't think it makes sense to
describe preferences as reasonable or unreasonable. It's like saying that it's
unreasonable to have the flu or be short. Preferences aren't voluntary
choices.

------
jerf
Now, combine this with autonomous cars about ten to twenty years hence, and
you've got a recipe for a major sea change in how we get around. Just another
example of why I think naively projecting 20 years into the future as if there
will be no changes in anything is a foolish waste of time.

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ianferrel
It seems like the biggest risk with this company is that they're effectively
skirting laws designed to limit the sort of service they're providing.

How long before cities up their rent-seeking and require all hired
transportation to have a medallion?

~~~
allwein
They're not skirting the laws at all. The hiring of privates cars, limos, or
buses is usually not restricted or regulated by cities.

The innovation here, and the reason the cab companies are up in arms about it,
is that it's now on-demand hiring of private cars via phone. The cab companies
used to have a lock on on-demand hiring via handwave or cabstanding.

~~~
ianferrel
"Skirting" was a poor choice of word on my part. I didn't mean to imply they
were doing anything unethical or borderline.

I simply wanted to point out that regulating cab companies and selling
expensive permits is a source of city revenue. If an innovative new business
disrupts that revenue, it may quickly find itself the subject of new
regulation.

Now, if their success is based on efficient routing algorithms and higher-
class service, then they have nothing to worry about. If it's based on the
fact that they don't have one of the cab companies' major expenses, then
they're at significant risk of being regulated out of profitability.

------
stanleydrew
Full, unpaged version: <http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2011/04/app-stars-
uber/all/1>

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hipsterelitist
Perhaps I'm spoiled by living in NYC, but I don't see a way that this could
actually work here.

San Francisco is a notoriously awful place to catch a cab, but I hardly see
how taking advantage of a local policy/market failure represents something
that might be disruptive to a whole industry... particularly at a 40% mark-up.

~~~
dy
As a New Yorker, I'd have to agree. There already seems to be a glut of taxis
for most times of the day (in addition to the higher-end sedans that very few
people use).

~~~
mtalantikite
Even here in Brooklyn, where hailing a cab is more difficult than in the city,
calling a car service is super fast and not much more expensive than a yellow
cab.

Arecibo (car service) almost always arrives within 5 minutes, and on numerous
occasions I've had them say "ok, they're downstairs already" while still on
the phone with them.

Not really a problem in need of solving in NYC, although it certainly will be
interesting to see how it is received here.

~~~
modeless
Are you kidding? Pressing a button is way easier and faster than calling a
person and telling them where you are. Seeing the fare and paying it on your
phone before even reaching the destination is way better than settling with
the driver using cash or credit cards while sitting in the car at your
destination. This is a far better experience than calling a normal cab
service.

~~~
mtalantikite
Yeah, it doesn't make things so much easier that i'd pay more for it. The
process is about 10 seconds right now, and settling up payment is easy if
you're not a tourist in NY. It'd be one thing if it was a frustrating
experience, but to be honest it's pretty easy already.

Plus I'm sure the car services are going to be resistant to the fees
associated with it, changing their work flow, and are thinking about all the
income I'm sure they don't declare. Actually, I just remembered this article
from a while back about the car services:
<http://nymag.com/news/features/54678/>

But sure, maybe someday I'll tap a screen to take care of it once we hit a
quorum of use, I have no opposition to it. It just doesn't seem to be a
problem in my life that needs solving. Yet another third party trying to get
in between the transaction to skim some money off.

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jrubinovitz
Excellent, the more things we're making more efficient with math, the better.
If the pricing proves to be a huge hurdle I think they should try a
subscription based model as well, and/or selling rides in bulk for cheaper.

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weaksauce
How uber is the experience if you cannot get the cab on Halloween because it's
$500(or $x) and you cannot afford it?

~~~
OstiaAntica
That's a STRONG price signal that will bring more cabs into the marketplace at
peak times. $500 fares won't happen often or for very long-- I'd fire up my
own ride and pick you up for $250!

~~~
dy
That's a cool idea of crowdsourcing peak times. You sign up to get texts when
people are willing to pay for rides above a certain threshold and then just
drive your car out to pick them up.

I'd use it (and possibly do it, although hard to say and it'd have to be for a
ridiculous amount of money ~100+ range/trip).

~~~
weaksauce
There would need to be a reputation component like airbnb; otherwise, you
would run the risk of shady people picking you up knowing that you have >= $x
dollars on you and steal it.

~~~
skorgu
According to the article payment is handled via credit cards in the backend so
you could have $0 on hand. Your broader point definitely still stands.

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MikeF
The heat map on page 2 is pretty interesting

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maukdaddy
Paging tptacket - our resident taxi expert!

