

Why WP7 will dominate mobile - ericmsimons
http://eric.esft.com/blog_post.php?bid=20

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teilo
FTA: "Unlike Apple, though, they [Android] still need to use the 'success by
numbers' approach in order to stay alive."

So, what you are saying is that the only way that Android is successful is
that they have lots and lots of people using their phones?

And tell me once again why WP7 will dominate?

FTA: "Windows Phone 7 will receive updates OTA (so it has legacy support),
will have the same UI on all devices it runs on, and the same WP7 operating
system."

So, WP7 will have OTA's just like Android and iOS. And it will have a
consistent UI just like iOS and (according to Google) the next version of
Android. And it will have "legacy support" because every handset using it will
have the exact same OS image and will be upgradable by Microsoft instead of
the carriers. Come again? One OS image for all handset models? Riiiight.

~~~
ericmsimons
Android's success is due to pricing and availability. Would a consumer pay
$100 for a great Android phone or $200 for iPhone 4? How about if they get
ANOTHER Android phone free for the same Ben Franklin?! On networks where the
iPhone isn't available (Verizon, Sprint, T-Mobs, etc), are you going to buy an
Android phone or a Motorola Razr? There aren't many other options (except
Blackberry - no touch screen, no fun).

WP7 will dominate for a few reasons. The UI is slick and snappy. Its touch
sensitivity is fantastic. Microsoft is putting God knows how much money behind
its marketing campaign. They're gonna have tons of those "buy one get one
free" deals for crazy prices. They're really putting a lot behind this
release...I will be really surprised if they don't chomp up at least a quarter
of smartphone market share within the next few years.

Android is great for tech geeks. I honestly do like Android, I don't hate it.
But WP7 is a better phone for the non-tech geeks out there because of its ease
of use. Not saying that WP7 isn't good for tech geeks too! It comes with an
array of enterprise features that are fantastic.

As far as the "next Android" with the same UI, its vaporware right now. Not
worth wasting keystrokes arguing over.

And yes, the OS is upgradeable directly from MSFT, not the carriers. The
second that a new update is available you can download it straight from MSFT's
servers. The core of WP7 is maintained by MSFT; the miscellaneous drivers and
applications provided by hardware manufacturers and carriers are maintained
through their own updates.

Snarky today, aren't we? ;)

~~~
teilo
I've seen similar claims from Microsoft before, and it's all very nice, in
theory. But as far as I'm concerned, all of this is theoretical until it
actually happens. Microsoft has had a long history of making claims during the
marketing phase that just do not bear out in the final product. Thus it is a
dodgy proposition to prognosticate using their marketing material.

~~~
ericmsimons
Fair enough. Like I said in my article, "There is a huge check with
Microsoft's name on it IF they pull this off."

I'm betting they do. I also bet on the iPad failing; I now owe my friend Scott
an unboxing video of that putrid device. I digress.

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bradleyland
Summary: Yesterday's predictions for tomorrow's world.

Sorry, but "legacy support" is a pretty weak leg to stand on for future
success. Right now, we're watching companies (even large ones) moving away
from a monolithic approach to software and marching toward an a la carte
future. Not everyone is going to make this leap -- there will always be
dinosaurs that linger on past their time -- but the future is small. Small
companies providing tools that talk to each other and share information.

~~~
ericmsimons
A lot of 1 year old Android phones can't receive Froyo. That's a major
problem. Why would you buy an Android phone knowing that it will quickly be
forgotten by its support teams?

I'm not saying legacy support will make WP7 successful, but its a huge feather
in MSFT's cap!

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barnaby
Interesting prediction about history repeating with Apple innovating then MS
copying and simply setting up more manufacturers.

Though, totally wrong, Android rocks! customers love it! But everyone already
has mental associations of what Windows phones look/feel like, and it's not
pretty. They have a lot of expensive customer re-education to do. I don't see
it taking off as well.

~~~
ericmsimons
I actually like Android, don't get me wrong! The problem I see with Android is
the complexity of the UI. I can find my way around it just fine (cause I'm a
tech dork), but a lot of my non-tech geek friends really do become frustrated
with their Android devices. My friend Danielle LOVED her HTC Incredible...for
about a week. She hates it now because it's "slow, bloated and not as
responsive as the iPhone" <\-- direct quote. Once WP7 hits, I think the
average consumer will like WP7 more. That's just my opinion though, I could
definitely be wrong. I was also the guy who preached the iPad wouldn't be a
best seller. I now wear a paper bag over my head in public and I also changed
my name to Juan.

You're also right about their expensive customer re-education. It's definitely
an uphill battle for Microsoft but it sounds like they are funding one of the
largest marketing campaigns in their history, just for WP7. Should be
interesting to see what happens :D

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DjDarkman
Nice flashy prediction, I'm interested how will WP7 do in real life. Tell me
technical merits not just some lame predictions.

I seen a WP7 in action(youtube-it) and well it's far from impressive. It looks
like a half baked product to me. Especially the under construction pages.

~~~
ericmsimons
No one has seen the RTM version. Not until today at least when WP7 officially
launches.

I'm interested in how WP7 will do in real life as well. My prediction may be
completely wrong, I know that. Like I said in my article, "There is a huge
check with Microsoft's name on it IF they pull this off." It will be pretty
embarrassing if their billions invested in WP7 ends up as a failure :/

