
Facebook roadshow video - sethbannon
http://facebook.retailroadshow.com/show/retail.html?
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aresant
This video is the best foot forward case from FB to buy their stock. That is
its purpose.

Through that lens when demonstrating the product in the first 5 minutes, the
amount of time that FB dedicates to 2 features - photo sharing and Timeline -
is striking.

Instagram learned the $1b way just how core photo sharing is to FB.

But doesn't that acquisition demonstrate FB's inherent weakness - consumer's
fickle behavior?

That in 18 months a <20 man start-up can terrify a multi-billion dollar
behemoth?

And then the focus on Timeline just feels odd.

A "maybe" success from the user perspective, but either way seems more like a
UI-update than a core product choice.

Two years from now does anybody believe timeline will be the default homepage?

Facebook is going to be a behemoth IPO no matter what, but I am less compelled
to own the stock vs. investing money in another photo-startup that could swing
hard @ facebook's core, despite how pedestrian that sounds!

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oskarth
I think the reason they mention the timeline is because it's great for
advertisers. It doesn't seem unlikely that it has intentionally been designed
to be disorienting which leads us to pay more attention to ads.

User retention (including engagement and growth) and monetization are
obviously the two biggest concerns for a company like Facebook. Photos
(sticky, long-living) and the map of users (if you are not in you are out) are
for user retention. Timeline and platform (games, connect, pages etc) is for
monetization.

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flyt
youtube mirror (the original can't be skipped around in)
<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btQIHSApV_0>

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jcampbell1
This was brilliantly produced, but... the only thing interesting was: ads in
the timeline. I used to care about FB hitting their $5B target this year, but
that will be easy if they launch ads in the timeline. I am concerned whether
Facebook is relevant 10 years from now.

I take positions and put my money where my mouth is. In this case, I'll sit on
the side lines, though I am tempted to be short.

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capred
This IPO is based as much as the 'dream' of what FB can be than what it is.

Here's something to think about: FB investments pre-IPO: $2.4 Billion, Google
investments pre-IPO: $25MM. Google's IPO was much smaller ($25B market cap if
I recall) but Google was financially a stronger company when it went public.

Therefore cue music and grandiose mission statements. Wait, Facebook will get
to that 18 P/E ratio when?

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oskarth
Where did you see real/projected P/E ratios?

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capred
Its not listed but tech stocks like apple and google hover around 15-20 P/E.
That means that the FB has to grow their earnings so their P/E ratio ends up
being in line with the industry or their stock falls. I.e. either Price moves
or Earnings move. This doesn't happen immediately - right now LinkedIn is
around 1,000- but the market or company needs to correct itself overtime.
While its "correcting" that means earnings will go up w/o the price doing the
same thing. That means as a current shareholder, lots of future value
accretion has already been priced in (i.e. the stock wont rise like Google or
Apple in the last 10 years, which was being fueled by increased earnings). Of
course P/E is only 1 metric, but its a really important one.

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zinssmeister
In every scenario I see facebook involved in the future of the internet. So,
not to sound too much like a fanboy, but isn't it almost a sure bet to buy
facebook stock? If they initially offer the shares for around $30 it seems
like a no brainer to get in on that.

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dmvaldman
FB is currently valued at 1/2 of what Google is valued at. Your call.

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science_police
I hate to be "that guy" but view source on the page for lulz.

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flavien_bessede
The kind of video I'd send to my family when they asks why I invested in
Facebook :) The domain name made me look thrice, looked like a fake at first
...

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fungi
feels almost religious

