
How to Profit from Bitcoin Bubble - danielwilcz
http://www.danielwilczynski.com/2017/11/29/bitcoin-price-index/
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empath75
This is TA nonsense, no better than a horoscope.

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itodd
I'm not so sure anyone should follow this considering the recent shens over
bitfinex and tether.

Tether is supposedly tied directly to USD. Their website says as much and
claims transparency through audits. There hasn't been a single audit that has
been independently verified.

Right now there have been nearly [800m tethers
minted]([http://omnichest.info/lookupsp.aspx?sp=31](http://omnichest.info/lookupsp.aspx?sp=31)).
They are minting them at an alarming rate as seen
[here]([http://omnichest.info/lookupadd.aspx?address=3MbYQMMmSkC3AgW...](http://omnichest.info/lookupadd.aspx?address=3MbYQMMmSkC3AgWkj9FMo5LsPTW1zBTwXL)).

This is of course circumstantial. I just thought I'd share as I'm stepping
back from the markets as a result. @bitfinexed on Twitter seems to be the
loudest voice on this topic.

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jaaames
This.

There is likely very little USD in any of the major exchanges, they are all
almost certainly running a fractional reserve given recent price hikes.

When the Tether nonsense implodes there'll be a bank run on all exchanges and
major liquidity crunch.

There's basically no wait to safely profit from this other than being out of
the market.

~~~
panarky
> they are all almost certainly running a fractional reserve given recent
> price hikes

Agreed that a lot of exchanges are non-transparent, can't tell if they're
stealing or losing customer funds.

But this is unrelated to "recent price hikes". A higher exchange rate doesn't
cause fractional reserve.

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lee101
Its good to quantify how low things may get because theres so much volatility
in the bitcoin space... such that you can make really decent gains even day to
day.

I'm founder of [https://bitbank.nz](https://bitbank.nz) which provides high
frequency forecasts for lots of cryptocurrency markets, because its only
forecasting 2 hours ahead it can be more accurate by using other more denser
sources of data such as computing the orderbook imbalance and weighted best
fit lines through the trades weighted by trade amount. Check it out :) we have
an API/bulk data developers can use.

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dforrestwilson
This is speculation.

The best way to profit from a bubble is to stay away as much as possible imho.
Value investors had several tough years of FOMO angst during the dot-com
bubble before everything (except value) came crashing down.

If you want to risk maybe 1% of your personal net worth in something like
crypto I say go for it. Just don't bet the bank on something that very few
pundits were discussing 1-2 years ago.

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luk32
> This is speculation.

> The best way to profit from a bubble is to stay away as much as possible
> imho.

Well. Obviously you're wrong. Some of the richest people got there by
speculating.

Speculation is one of the best way to profit... Just not on average. On
average it's rather bad. It always shifts wealth from larger group of people
to lower.

It's very good for very few, and rather bad for rather large amount of people.

Many people got rich on BTC it will be paid by those who will hold BTC when it
crashes.

~~~
dforrestwilson
Obviously I'm not by your own admission.

The problem with bubbles is that it's human nature to believe that you have an
edge over others on the timing of events. So yes, for most people speculating
on Bitcoin this way is objectively destructive.

If someone has an edge (superior technical knowledge, information on
applications nobody has considered, or a time machine) I say go for it.

But it's very hard for people like the writer to acknowledge that they are no
better advantaged/informed than 6 billion others.

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thisisit
In other mature markets, TA bullshit like this would normally get slammed
really hard. The interesting thing is cryptocurrency trading is one of those
last places where everyone uses TA to "trade". Hence, it has become a self
fulfilling prophecy.

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anticipation
Waiting for bitcoin to reach to $5k by January. It's a bubble and a scam by
chinese/korean/japanese miners.

