
The Near Future of Electric Cars: Many Models, Few Buyers - osrec
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-12-19/the-near-future-of-electric-cars-many-models-few-buyers
======
codeulike
I thought this article would annoy me but its actually quite interesting.
Basic premise is: Tesla has the rest of the industry scared, so they're all
rushing to announce electric models so they don't get left behind. But if we
assume the switchover to electric is coming in the next decade or two, how do
big automakers decide how fast to transfer? Too fast is a risk due to capital
expenditure on battery factories etc. Too slow is a risk due to being left
behind.

Perhaps this explains why traditional auto manufacturers seem to be constantly
announcing exciting electric models that are still 3 to 5 years away - they
can appear to be staying in the game without doing too much.

~~~
11thEarlOfMar
Historically, there have been a variety of reasons why electric cars did not
take substantial market share. You likely know what they are: Range anxiety,
lack of charging infrastructure, poor performance, funky styling, 'general
dorkiness', .... The current independents have focused on these issues and in
many cases, clearly eliminated them. Moreover, the market itself has evolved
with the US in particular finally starting to wake up to environmental issues
(T notwithstanding), and China making strident environmental policy out of
pure desperation.

Add to the situation that a popular figurehead with a superhero alter-ego is
leading the way with awe-inspiring (crash inducing) feats of science and
technology, and I think we'll all be surprised at how fast electric vehicles
become mainstream.

~~~
keldaris
To offer a slightly anecdotal counterpoint, if you discard ideological reasons
and generous subsidies available in a few markets, I have no idea why anyone
would buy an electric car right now. The range and the charging times are
still an issue, especially if you don't live in California. The performance of
most electric cars is abysmal (straight line speed may be all right, but
cornering with the extra weight is just inferior) compared to traditional
performance cars and while styling is subjective, the only electric car I've
seen that wasn't outright ugly was the BMW i8, and that's a hybrid. That's not
to mention the fact that they still carry a severe price premium in most
markets.

I realize my opinion will be highly controversial in the HN bubble, but I find
it to be very common in real life, particularly outside the U.S. Like any
future prediction, I'm probably way off, but to me it looks like on the list
of vastly overhyped car trends pure electric cars are second only to self-
driving cars. I'm sure they'll find specific markets (taxis, urban deliveries,
etc.), but I don't see myself switching to an electric car for at least a
decade, probably more.

~~~
jblow
Electric cars are _baller_. They are fun to drive.

My Tesla Roadster does not corner like a Porsche 911, it's true, but it _does
not matter_ for everyday driving, because it is so effortlessly faster than
anything else on the road, when I pull away from a stoplight, whoever I want
to cut in front of is 50 feet behind me.

Instant acceleration is worth a lot, too.

For comparison: My previous car was a BMW M3. I would much, _much_ rather
drive my 2010 Tesla Roadster, and that is an old car at this point ... 2020
Tesla Roadster is going to be amazing.

> The range and the charging times are still an issue, especially if you don't
> live in California.

My roadster goes 340 miles on one charge. The upcoming 2020 Roadster goes 620
miles on one charge.

Admittedly, battery capacity costs money. Price-sensitivity is the reason most
of these newly-announced cars don't have as much range. It is not a technical
limitation.

And as with any such technology component, battery costs will continue to drop
over time.

~~~
thedrbrian
>Electric cars are baller. They are fun to drive. My Tesla Roadster does not
corner like a Porsche 911, it's true, but it does not matter for everyday
driving, because it is so effortlessly faster than anything else on the road,
when I pull away from a stoplight, whoever I want to cut in front of is 50
feet behind me.

See I drive a Miata and there is nothing like it in the electric car world.
The way you zoom from corner to corner without slowing. It’s interesting that
people say electric cars and fun , then quantify it by saying it’s really fast
but saying nothing about the handling. The good thing about a balanced and
good handling car is that you can enjoy it all the time whereas straight line
speed is becoming increasing irrelevant due to traffic and zealous speeding
enforcement.

Put it this way how many seconds of full throttle will get you banned?*

*in the UK where a speeding ticket of 100mph plus is a ban.

~~~
holycrapwhodat
My last ICE car was a Mini Cooper JCW 6-speed. Still have it. I love it for
it's power-to-weight ratio and it's "go kart handling".

Besides being a daily driver it's been autocrossed and tracked plenty of
times.

I have Miata friends and listen to the way they describe how tossable their
cars are with a glimmer in their eye. I've driven their Miatas and I'd take my
Mini's handling any day.

My current daily driver is a Model S 100D (not the P100D) and it is _insanely_
fun to drive.

As far as daily drivers go I'd choose the Model S over the Mini 99 days out of
100.

It's over TWICE AS HEAVY as the Mini but that weight is about a foot off the
ground, the suspension is more than up to the job of handling 2.5 tons, and it
has a near 50/50 weight distribution.

The Mini might corner like a go kart, but the Model S corners like its on
rails. I have just as much "fun" driving the Model S around town as the Mini
but the effort put in to doing so is a mere fraction.

You present your Miata as a "balanced and good handling car", and I assure
you; a competent electric car is 100% both of those things while also being
effortless in traffic.

I grew up as a "driver" which is why the Mini is never going anywhere and
other enthusiast ICE cars have made their way through my stable over the
years. It's why I still choose a manual transmission car where I have to spool
up the motor 1 day out of 100. And I don't foresee electric cars being
realistic choices for a track day any time in the next 10-15 years.

But anybody who truly believes they aren't already sufficient for 99% of the
car-buying public's needs* because they aren't "fun" either hasn't given one a
shot or is in irrational denial.

* - Trucks are a different matter, but Musk hopes to change that soon, as well...

~~~
CydeWeys
> And I don't foresee electric cars being realistic choices for a track day
> any time in the next 10-15 years.

Why not? People are already taking Teslas to track days, and doing quite well
with them. They're faster than the majority of random cars that people are
already bringing to track days. That's why track days have performance
classes, so you don't have Civics competing directly against (and getting
trounced by) Ferraris.

------
ciconia
About a month ago I bought a used electric car as complement to our gasoline-
powered family car. We live deep in the French countryside and virtually all
our day-to-day rides are within 25km of home, and we drive about 1500km/month,
not including long drives.

By my calculations we're saving about 150€/month on fuel, while the car itself
costs 230€ including insurance and charging, so we basically get a second car
for 80€/month, and lower the maintenance costs and depreciation on the gas
guzzler. Other benefits are near-zero maintenance (no oil change, less brake
wear), zero registration cost, a quiet and fun ride, and zero pollution!

For our situation an electric makes perfect sense! I'm actually looking
forward to trading our first car for an electric, once it becomes economically
viable.

~~~
melling
Plus the electricity in France is enviably green:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France#/media...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France#/media/File:Electricity_in_France.svg)

~~~
ciconia
In addition some electricity providers will sell you "green electricity",
meaning they'll commit to buying the amount you consume from renewable
sources.

~~~
thesumofall
Or even better: commit to build renewable capacity to cover their customers to
avoid that the “green” energy is simply taken away from the power mix of
everyone else

------
intopieces
The real point here: “Although today’s drivers aren’t too excited about
battery cars, tougher regulations in places like China and the power-thirsty
needs of driverless features could help speed the transition along”

It’s all about China. They have proven far more willing to impose their will
on the market than any other country. China could very well ban all fossil
fuel vehicles in one act and make king of whatever companies can supply them
with electric cars.

Too much of the article is spent hand wringing over the US Market. The US
Market is mature, stable, boring, and midsized. The real action is China and
India.

~~~
ianai
It’s appropriate to compare a sudden change in a stable, mature market to a
much less developed market that might not make a change at all. China has
built entire cities without people moving to them. Just because a government
demonstrates a strong imposement of will does not ensure wide adoption.
Anything that dramatically changes a mature, replacement-driven market will
materialize quicker and more profitably in the immediate.

------
phil248
Two things this article leaves out, both relating to China.

First, China has mandated that its domestic automakers sell 12% of their
vehicles as all-electric or hybrid by 2020. There's your jumpstart for demand,
as artificial as it may be. Policies in parts of Europe will help as well.

Second, China has _several dozen_ domestic automakers, which must account for
a fairly large share of these 127 battery-electric models mentioned in the
article. Though the article also says 75 models have been announced that will
sell in the US, and as far as I know none of the purely domestic Chinese
automakers are in the US market today.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
There was a huge scandal in the last year with more than a few Chinese car
companies taking advantage of EV subsidies with bogus projects, so they
basically had to do a reset on their plans with the quota instead.

[https://apnews.com/466f3f8a95594e6287af9a806c2ebf29](https://apnews.com/466f3f8a95594e6287af9a806c2ebf29)

[https://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/subsidy-fraud-reforms-
ch...](https://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/subsidy-fraud-reforms-china-ev-
market)

BYD has done well enough, I've ridden in an E5 taxi more than a few times.
This and the Model S were the only electric passenger cars I saw in Beijing
circa late 2016.

------
gutnor
Earlier this week I was at a mall with a Tesla shop and about 5 supercharger
in the parking lot. Something that I never really considered was that if
electric car are set to replace ice car in the next decade(s), basically half
the parking lot would need to have electric recharging capability i.e. several
thousand slots. Street parking will need the same as will office and
residential parking lots.

What happens currently is a multiplication of private charging network, which
is good, except that you need to pay a monthly fee for access, then a fee per
connection and finally a fee per minute or kWh. It costs 10 GBP extra fee if
you haven't a monthly registration. So if you need to charge your Tesla (let's
assume 60 kWh) on a network you are not registered that's going to cost you:
31.80 GBP ! OK it is still less expensive than petrol, but that's not longer
an order of magnitude under.

I'm a bit afraid that in parallel to the legislation terminating the sales of
ICE cars, there isn't any kind of legislation for the charging networks being
put in place. Those private network will have to fight to install point on the
public road, meaning the competition will be to win the local authorities, not
on the consumer side. Failure to do something will lead to a situation quite
similar to broadband in the US, with car driver required to pay several
monthly fees to various network in order to make sure they can top up their
car.

It is a bit offtopic, but until that day it never occurred to me that the
golden age of electric car ownership is today! With lots of free goodies
thrown your way, but all of that will dry up by the time the common folk get
their EV and the future will look much like the present in term of cost of
driving hidden in a few extra monthly fees tacked to your account. At least
it's a win for the environment.

~~~
codeulike
_Something that I never really considered was that if electric car are set to
replace ice car in the next decade(s), basically half the parking lot would
need to have electric recharging capability i.e. several thousand slots._

Not really. You plug your electric car in at home overnight, you start every
day on 100%. You only need to re-charge at the mall or somewhere if you are
driving beyond your car's range. That happens sometimes but not enough to need
half a car park of chargers. Also, range will improve a lot in the next few
years as battery prices/weights drop.

Cities where people don't have off-street parking at night (e.g. London) are a
bit of an issue though. I suspect that can be solved though.

~~~
adrianN
Are there cities where the majority of the people has off-street parking at
night? I would be surprised if that were the case, at least here in Germany.

~~~
tonyedgecombe
Planning regulations in the UK mandate minimum parking with a few exceptions
so most new development has spaces. Visit anywhere built in the fifties
though, when car use was lower and you find cars parked all over the place.

------
sathackr
The cars don't quite seem 'there' yet.

Tesla is the leader here, but I've heard many horror stories about owners'
cars needing minor repairs being unusable for months due to parts availibity
[1]. They seem also to have the best charging network as the rest of the
industry was split between CHAdeMO and CCS.

Nissan got the jump in America with the Leafs and CHAdeMO, but they don't have
the range to be the only vehicle for most people.

I learned about the Bolt EV and went to the dealer, money in hand, to trade in
my SUV for one, until I saw it up close and drove it. It's just not quite
there yet. The car is $37,000 and doesn't have power seats. I'm not spoiled in
that I can't use a manual seat, but for long distance driving, position is
important and the seat only had the typical manual seat adjustments. No tilt,
no height adjustments. The amount of space in the rear is quite small, and
there is no frunk.

Charging and cost of charging was another problem. There are not quite enough
CCS chargers in my area yet. And public chargers are bit pricey. The ones I
found were $0.30+ per kwh. That price exceeds the cost of fueling a newer
gasoline car that cost half as much. 3.5mi per KWh works out to about
$0.086/mile. A car that gets 40mpg at $2.50/gal costs $0.063 per mile in fuel.

The Model 3 may change some of this, and of course, home charging is cheaper.
But the numbers just didn't quite add up for me. I'm looking at a Volt now.
The plug in range can handle about 60% of my driving, and I have an efficient
gas engine that is cheaper to run on long trips than the equivalent electric
cost. There is plenty of trunk space and I don't have to wait an hour for it
to charge for every 3 hours of driving.

Not to mention that the Bolt EV is just ugly.

[1]
[https://www.google.com/search?q=tesla+cant+drive+body+parts&...](https://www.google.com/search?q=tesla+cant+drive+body+parts&oq=tesla+cant+drive+body+parts)

------
CalChris
The EV market is increasing. First half of 2016 was 64,736 and first half of
2017 was 90,302 [1]. That's about 1% of the market. That there are _Many
Models_ tells you car companies think there are _More Buyers_ rather than _Few
Buyers_.

I drive a 2013 Leaf so I know about range anxiety. My next car will be an S.

My only complaint about the Leaf is that if I put $6000 worth of new batter I
don't get 2018 technology. It doesn't get better. I get the exact same
battery.

[1] [https://www.fleetcarma.com/electric-vehicle-sales-united-
sta...](https://www.fleetcarma.com/electric-vehicle-sales-united-
states-2017-half-year-update/)

~~~
tonyedgecombe
I wonder if we will see third party battery replacement services offering
better performance, it seems there could be a commercial opportunity there.

~~~
CalChris
I think the answer for the Leaf is no. Nissan doesn't have an incentive to
allow this. It is, I'll grant you, more difficult than replacing a 12V. There
are heat issues and apparently charger compatibility issues.

However, Nissan is in the business of selling cars just as Apple is in the
business of selling computers. Repairing and improving old cars+computers is
an expense and competes with sales of new cars+computers.

In principle, it could happen. In practice, it won't. I'll probably get the
batter replaced and keep the car. But I wouldn't buy/recommend a Leaf at this
point as there are better alternatives available.

A similar issue is right to repair.

------
netsuso
Developing a new car model is not done in a few months, they take years. So
it's understandable that car companies start to plan the future now.

They also don't know if the demand will follow an S-curve and when. Disruptive
changes are difficult to predict (probably predictions 11-12 years ago said
Nokia would still dominate mobile phone market in 2017 :D)

The demand will grow as battery prices go down, and range of electric cars
increases. When an electric car has the same price and range than a petrol car
(and probably before, as maintenance costs for an electric car are lower),
there will be no rational reason to buy a combustion car. It's only a matter
of time

------
plaidfuji
ICE will be around for a long time in the US market. If I had to put a number
on it, probably 30 years. This article is about demand, but even with robust
demand there's massive infrastructural inertia behind ICE. Tens of thousands
of trained mechanics. Oil and gas pipelines and tankers. A national network of
gas stations with better coverage than any cell network.

About half of car sales are used vehicles - how long until there's a large
market of used EVs? Or even reliable statistics on their depreciation?

People don't demand a certain type of propulsion technology, they demand
reliable and cheap transportation. Sure, rich technophiles and
environmentalists will be willing to pay a premium for a Tesla or a Leaf, but
my guess is that market is close to saturated. Once Teslas are sustainably
priced and their luster has worn a bit, they'll probably be most comparable to
Cadillacs. Eye-catching styling and powerful, but lacking in the attention to
detail that goes into German luxury cars.

------
yalogin
Electric cars is not the differentiator. The attraction is self driving, and
Tesla knows this and so they market that. That is really how they garnered the
clout and leading the market.

------
spo81rty
A friend of mine just got a Tesla Model X. He also owns exotic cars and races
cares. He is a true car guy and gear head.

If people like him are starting to switch to electric so will everyone else.

~~~
plaidfuji
Obviously, because the vast majority of people are gear heads who own and race
exotic cars.

------
ProfessorLayton
I've been itching to buy an electric car, but my current hybrid is still fine
and gets ~45mpg. Additionally, the heavy incentives and constant model
improvements have caused resale values to continuously plummet [1], so there's
no rush for me to buy. I can get a lot more electric car for a lot less money
just by waiting a bit.

[1] A cursory craigslist search lists Nissan Leafs for $5.5k @26k miles, and
2014 BMW i3s ~$13k @45k miles. Electric cars seem to hold their values very
poorly.

~~~
jonas21
You, as the first owner, get to keep the incentive, so why does it matter if
it reduces the resale value?

~~~
ProfessorLayton
Well, reduced resale values increase the total cost of ownership, so it
matters to anyone looking to spend less by going electric. A Nissan leaf fairs
particularly poorly, especially compared to its ICE counterpart, the Versa
[1]. The resale values are plummeting more than the incentives given.

It also matters to anyone looking at buying a used electric car (Me), since
the rapid depreciation makes me hesitant to jump in, as patience can get me
more features for the same price (range etc), or save me a lot of money.

[1]
[https://www.edmunds.com/nissan/leaf/2017/st-401695947/cost-t...](https://www.edmunds.com/nissan/leaf/2017/st-401695947/cost-
to-own/) vs
[https://www.edmunds.com/nissan/versa/2012/st-101396336/cost-...](https://www.edmunds.com/nissan/versa/2012/st-101396336/cost-
to-own/)

------
hedora
For me, the big barriers are cost and body style. (We just replaced a pickup
truck with a luxury ICE pickup). I get 14 MPG on a 10 mile, 60 minute bay area
commute (it does better driving up a mountain, FWIW).

Clearly, if Ford’s electric F-150 existed for ~$60k and could make occasional
long distance trips (like Teslas) I would have bought one instead.

The only Tesla big enough to start to make sense for us is the model X, and
those cost twice what we paid.

------
symlinkk
Would it be possible to have a manual transmission electric car? I’ve been
thinking about getting a new car with a stick because I think it would be fun
(and I need a new car), but if electric cars are right around the corner maybe
I should wait for those?

------
gnicholas
How much of this can be explained by regulations by CA and other states that
require (or strongly incentivize) manufacturers to have electric models?

I recall reading that Fiat loses $10k in every electric Fiat they sell, but
that they do so to appease CA regulators.

~~~
DrScump
Some SoCal dealers have offered Fiat 500e electrics on lease for _$99 /month
inclusive_ (dealer/mfr keeps the incentives).

------
nkkollaw
Personally, I would love an electric car but they all seem to be too expensive
(I'm in Europe).

I bought a 2005 Opel Corsa that I use to drive ~3000km/mo. and it runs great.
Paid 3,500 for it.

~~~
codeulike
They are expensive because of the batteries, but battery price per kWh is
dropping in a moores-law kind of way. Give it a few more years and there wont
be any compelling reason to buy a dinosaur juice car. I suppose the cheap
second hand car market might take a bit longer.

~~~
oblio
Based on an estimate from another Bloomberg article
([https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/latest-
bu...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/latest-bull-case-
for-electric-cars-the-cheapest-batteries-ever)), the price will halve by 2025.
That's 7 years, not quite Moore territory, and we're still talking about mid
range or more expensive cars. I'd imagine a $3500 second hand electric car to
be 2030+ territory, not quite "a few more years" :)

~~~
karolist
Currently I could import a crashed Leaf from US auction to my homecountry in
Europe and have it fixed and registered for a total of about 8000€, many
people do just that. I imagine this will fall to about 6000€ for the first
year Leaf imports in the coming couple of year or two.

------
askari01
Third world countries are dying to buy them, gas prices are high and unstable

------
austincheney
I used to drive from Fort Worth to San Antonio once a month, 300 miles. I can
do that on a single full tank of gas. I cannot do that on a single charge and
recharging takes forever. The technology simply isn’t comparable.

------
imglorp
I'm pretty sure Bloomberg has a pro-fossil slant: watch yourself.

~~~
osrec
What evidence do you have of that?

