
Trailer now available for Ray Kurzweil's movie, "Transcendent Man" - gourneau
http://transcendentman.com/
======
snowbird122
More information about the movie here: <http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1117394/>

The book (The singularity is near), which serves as the basis for the movie is
one of the most thought provoking reads I have had in a long time.

He looks at various trends throughout history (like Moore's Law) which follow
an exponential curve, and he extrapolates the curve into the future.

There may be some arm waving here and there, but there is definitely something
to his theories.

Summary: "Most people overestimate what can be accomplished in the short term
and underestimate what can be accomplished in the long term".

~~~
jodrellblank
The most compelling counter is one throwaway comment I saw here - that things
are just going to get so complex we will be overwhelmed with complexity and
leaky abstractions and progress will crash into a wall before intelligence
amplification helps us pass said wall.

I prefer the ideas of Aubrey De Gray, because while they require future-
technology and future-developments, they don't require intelligence
amplification or AI or thought-to-be-impossible technology, and if done
successfully would give us longer lives which might be the equivalent of
amplified intelligence allowing a way round said wall (i.e. work at the same
level of smartness, but for longer).

~~~
snowbird122
Ray's argument against things getting complex would probably be something
like: Why would things suddenly get "so complex" when the trend has been going
on for millions of years.

Douglas Hofstadler (Godel Escher Bach author) says that perhaps humans aren't
smart enough to understand and recreate consciousness.

Thanks for the Aubrey De Gray reference. Found a video interview of him here:
<http://bloggingheads.tv/diavlogs/16508>

~~~
jodrellblank
_Why would things suddenly get "so complex"_

That's the nature of exponentials. It will look like we have a lot of headroom
to spare, but in a couple of steps - wham.

Exponential doubling run backwards: 100% - full. 50% - one step earlier. 25% -
two steps earlier.

Two doublings before the limit, you look around and see 75% room to grow into
- why would there suddenly be a problem, there's so much room for manoeuvre,
stop worrying.

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endtime
Does anyone know more about this movie? The trailer isn't especially
informative (nor is the press kit), but it seems like the movie will be low on
content (excluding stuff that Kurzweil and others have been saying for years)
and high on self promotion. That's not necessarily a bad thing, it would just
mean that I'm not the target audience.

~~~
barredo
I guess the film will be to spread the Singularity ideas and theory for the
masses and get some news/press coverage similar to Michael Moore's films.

~~~
endtime
Yeah, I guess. A kind of intro to the Singularity for your mom. I suppose
that's worth knowing about.

~~~
jodrellblank
My mom is extremely unlikely to watch a film called "Transcendent Man". I
doubt if the technical people I know would be interested. Even the people here
at HN are skeptical.

This film has a feeling to me of a ... startup trying to launch on technical
impressiveness. Only a few people will care, and they have probably already
heard about it.

~~~
velocity_wave
Actually my mother is the one who introduced me to Ray Kurzweil's "The Age of
Spiritual Machines" and she bought me the book for Christmas.

My mother is not a scientist -- she only graduated from High School. She is
also very religious and spiritual.

So you might be inclined to stereotype or judge her (or other people's
Mothers) and assume that you know their points of view on Ray Kurzweil, or
science in general.

But you might be surprised, if you actually got to know some of these people.

I really credit my Mother with inspiring my interest in computers and science.
When I was younger she used to read me "science books for kids" and then
bought all the Time-Life Science books (including the one on the "Universe")
she could get her hands on, for me to read.

She even signed me up for a subscription to "Discover-Magazine" and "Popular
Science" when I was a teenager!

Not bad for a "stay at home Mom" who has serious Catholic views, and "just a
high school diploma".

------
ivankirigin
This doesn't look very good, as it focuses on Ray, and not on the issue. I'd
rather hear what Kevin Kelly and others shown have to say about the tech. I
don't care what they think about each other personally or politically.

I think Kelly is right by the way (he's the guy with white hair and a chin
strap beard). There has been too much focus on this guy, and the hope he
brings to people. It should motivate people, but only enough to learn or tech
more engineering to get there faster with practical, immediate action.

------
discojesus
"[Kurzweil] says computers will have human consciousness in 25 years."

Wait is this one of those 1980s AI-in-25-years predictions or is this a new
2009 We're Really Serious This Time, Guys prediction?

~~~
sgk284
Kurzweil is one of the few guys whose predictions I take serious, simply
because his track record is solid... in fact quite a few of is predictions
he's directly made happen. If you look at the claims made in "The Age of
Intelligent Machines", and the follow up a decade later in "The Age of
Spiritual Machines", you realize the guy is pretty on the ball. Not 100% of
the time, but even when he's wrong he usually got some part of it right.

~~~
bitwize
Hey, the best way to predict the future is to (in|pre)vent it.

------
Tichy
It's horrible. I like Kurzweil and singularity doesn't seem so unlikely - just
the trailer is unbearable for me, for too many reasons to count (like cutting
from Captain Kirk to "The Singularity Is Near" lieing on a desk).

~~~
gord
agreed.. but thankfully captain kirk gets to speak and thus his dignity is
preserved.. as befits his stature as ambassador for all humanity.

~~~
jksmith
HAH. Well said. Plus, if any aliens get out of hand he can kick ass with the
tonfa training he got on TJ Hooker.

------
brightscreamer
Serious question--how does the struggling global economy factor into all of
this? I'd think it would, at the very least, postpone a technological
singularity.

~~~
ivankirigin
Cycles of peaks and troughs in growth rates are normal.

~~~
time_management
Right, but let's consider the difference between a recession and a depression.
A recession is a contraction in a healthy economy. It's normal, and probably
necessary. A depression is something worse. We don't know yet if this is a
recession or a depression.

~~~
whughes
At worst, we're talking about a stagnation, a flatlining in the exponential
curve for a few years. I doubt that we'll get to that point. To see growth
completely stop we'd need a nuclear war or something to that end.

Life was still better during the Great Depression than it was only a few
decades earlier. Progress will continue even if the political and economic
landscape is unfavorable.

------
FiReaNG3L
The singularity prediction relies on a trend of technological advances that is
ever increasing. The only thing it forgets is that resources are not infinite.
Hey, bacteria on a plate grow exponentially, but eventually they run out of
resources and just die.

~~~
jksmith
Maybe the universe is a closed system, but reaching the "Singularity" before
we reach maximum entropy is probably more likely.

~~~
scott_s
Our "plate" is probably not all of the known universe. We may never leave this
solar system.

~~~
GHFigs
What makes you think that?

~~~
scott_s
Charles Stross, a science fiction writer, has an interesting essay about the
difficulties involved: [http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-
static/2007/06/the_high...](http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-
static/2007/06/the_high_frontier_redux.html)

His conclusion is that it's unlikely, and I agree.

------
peregrine
The nice thing about being Ray Kurzweil is that he can keep making predictions
on the most simple things and get them right. So much that if hes wrong on any
he can easily push them aside.

Technology won't slow down, it can't, not even a depression could slow it
down. The information is too available and the school numbers are still high.

------
jksmith
"God is who he is, and our challenge should be to know Him, not try to create
Him."

That's the tough thing. Maybe the only way to know God is to become God, at
which point we just take it all for granted, like any other technology we
integrate into our lives.

------
vinutheraj
Those pills those guys were taking ... they think that they will make 'em live
forever ?

~~~
gourneau
This article in Wired goes into a little detail about his pill regiment:
[http://www.wired.com/medtech/drugs/magazine/16-04/ff_kurzwei...](http://www.wired.com/medtech/drugs/magazine/16-04/ff_kurzweil?currentPage=all)

~~~
scott_s
Too bad no medical studies support the idea that taking vitamins improves
health: [http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/20/news-keeps-
getting-...](http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/20/news-keeps-getting-
worse-for-vitamins/?em)

~~~
randallsquared
"no medical studies"? That seems like a very interesting claim, but the
article you linked doesn't support it much, instead just listing a few studies
which found that specific vitamins failed to improve health in specific areas.

~~~
scott_s
Have you heard of any? I haven't.

If taking vitamins regularly was something that improved our health, we should
be able to measure that. But as far as I know, we haven't been able to.

~~~
JabavuAdams
What about the case where someone has an otherwise undiagnosed vitamin
deficiency? E.g. B12 supplements to combat the neurological effects (like
depression, distractibility) of B12 deficiency?

~~~
StrawberryFrog
Sure. Vitamins fix vitamin deficiencies. That's a special case, and it does
not apply to the rest of us. In fact, too much vitamins can damage health.

You could argue that breathing more air improves heath ... because it works
for people who are underwater.

------
gord
I found this just hilarious after having read Michael Lewis' book "The Future
Just Happened".

On the one hand hes totally right.. on the other hand hes totally missing the
point, completely obsessed with blatant self promotion. ugh.

Then we see Tony Robbins propping up Rays rep as a 'serious human being'..
omg, my arse hurts from laughing so much.

This and "W" {dubya} are my must sees for comedy movies of '09.

------
xenophanes
How are we going to educate the AIs?

Hopefully not at our existing schools, which would bore them to tears.

~~~
xenophanes
What's objectionable about this comment? I don't know. Fill me in?

------
thepanister
Whatever this guy thinks he can do, I am sure he won't be able to make humans
live forever, or even "get his father back to life".

Maybe he can make a machine that lives forever, but he can't make a human to
live forever. There are things that god forced in this world, and it will
continue regardless if you believe in god or not. And I think that god forced
humans to die, and this won't change in the future.

~~~
gord
Well one can always ask just how long did god intend humans to live? Was it
30, 60, 90, 120, 150 or 180 yrs?

I think well see all of those as possible answers, given the advance of
medicine and engineering.

If by god you mean "stochastic calculus".. then yes, I do believe in god, and
he has mysterious ways indeed :]

~~~
thepanister
About God, he has created you, me, and the whole world [the world of
creatures]. And even if some people try to deny God, he is there and we need
him.

Well, advance of medicine and engineering?

Did medicine help prevent people die at age 5 or 6 yrs old? There is something
called "fate", and I guess you don't believe in it too.

~~~
jimbokun
It might be more productive if you argued why others should share your belief
in fate or God, instead of just stating your belief without any justification.
I do believe in God, but I do not find your statements very interesting
without at least some attempt to persuade.

~~~
thepanister
Thank you so much for making it clear to me what's wrong, and I will keep this
in mind.

