

China Skepticism - sun123
http://indianeconomy.org/2011/10/03/china-skepticism/

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duey
China _is_ a super power. I don't believe poor living standards preclude it
from being so. The Chinese exert huge influence over the Asia region. It's why
your starting to see USA place a lot of emphasis on a military presence in the
Asia region.

The interesting thing is a lot of the countries in the Asia/Pac region
primarily trade with China, even US allies (e.g. Australia). If the US starts
to get agressive (in the cold-war sense) within the region, at what point does
economics trump allies?

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bootload
_"... The interesting thing is a lot of the countries in the Asia/Pac region
primarily trade with China, even US allies (e.g._ Australia _). ..."_

Why is this surprising?

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iskander
>Of course, it is all economic waste, since none of the skyscrapers are
occupied. No forces of demand or supply, no consumption locally of the product
(people can’t afford it).

I'm not qualified to judge how sustainable the whole Chinese system is, but
what the author is saying here is simply untrue.

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seanmcdirmid
There are some distortions in the economy, especially in real estate, but its
not a universal by any means. You get some districts/towns/buildings being
built where there is no demand but someone can scrounge up land and capital,
these are very under utilized, but in the boom regions space is still at a
premium.

There are also distortions in residential real estate, easy access to credit +
no property taxes (just one upfront sales tax) means that many people by
properties speculatively without intending to rent it out or flip them in a
timely manner. This means many empty apartments even in cities like Beijing
and Shanghai where rents keep rising.

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chj
First of all I don't understand why this is HN-worthy.

China was a super power before, I mean, long before there was a USA. There is
no reason why it can't be again. And keep in mind that Germany became a super
power from nothing in less than 50 years.

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forgottenpaswrd
"China was a super power before, I mean, long before there was a USA."

Also the Greeks, the Carthaginians, the Romans, the Persians, the Spanish, the
Japanese, the French and the British. Even Portugal got to control a territory
bigger than that of ancient China (without Tibet and other recent conquest).

"And keep in mind that Germany became a super power from nothing in less than
50 years."

?? I don't know what nothing means to you. Do you mean "nothing" as the WWII?
were it was the most scientifically and industrially developed country of the
world with scientist that later will launch rockets for the Americans and
Russians, develop modern chemistry or psychology?.

I believe Chinese are very hard working people and there will be prosperity
there but not under communism. China could break apart very easily into
smaller states. The coast is very rich while inner China is so poor.

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drieddust
Unless China starts developing internal economy as well, they will not stay as
regional super power.

I am sure one billion suppressed people are going to rise against tyranny of
few ruler in coming future.

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rmah
Retail sales of consumer goods in China in 2011 were about $300B USD and
growing at 17% per year. I think this places it close behind the USA and EU.

More cars (units) are already sold in China than any other market. Other
categories are not far behind.

Obviously China's growth was fueled mainly by exports. However, that doesn't
mean its internal consumer economy is anemic. Further, current government
policy in China is to encourage internal consumer spending.

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kops
I learnt long ago that one can not learn anything about China from an Indian,
about India from a Pakistani and so on....

I checked the title of the article, read about a para and decided to check the
name of the author. That was the end of it.

I hope to hear a few things about China from a chinese one day. Everyone else
is either jeolous or afraid or angry or something else that gets his/her skin
in the way of a fair argument.

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SonicSoul
"When, and it’s a question of when, and not if, the crash happens – which
could be the collapse of exports, the internal property waste bubble bursting,
the GDP will see a very severe contraction"

wait what? i missed the paragraph founding this claim. especially important
because you're basing other claims on this.

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pan69
I had to laugh when I read this:

"there are highways in China, where one can drive for hours and see very few
cars"

So does the United States.. Both China and the US are pretty big countries you
know..

Other than that. Not sure what to think of the article.

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taligent
Short answer. No.

A true 'super power' in the modern sense is not the strength of its hard
military power but its soft power. The USA influences the world through
technology and culture on a level that China will never be able to match
without major internal changes. The fact that it still chooses to push its
smaller neighbours around is an example of this.

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damian2000
I disagree. The USSR was called a superpower, but they never did achieve it
via 'soft power' as you say... it was mainly through their military.

China's current power in the world comes primarily though its economic might.

~~~
iskander
I'm not sure the term "superpower" is well defined enough to argue over who is
and isn't one, but I do take issue with the idea that the USSR was influential
only via its military. Many, if not most, revolutionary movements for quite a
while were Marxist in nature. This resulted in the fall and creation of many
governments on all 6 populated continents. I think the projection of a
particular ideology counts as a form of soft power.

