
New Zealand PM: No open borders for 'a long time' - Reedx
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52540733
======
Exmoor
As insane as it seems I imagine we'll see closed borders in many countries for
a long, long time (months, maybe years?). It's going to be very hard to
justify risking even a small chance of introducing additional virus cases if
you've just spent the last few months trying to get a point where even minimal
non-"essential"* can begin to reopen there's going to be very little support
for any increased risk of any kind.

*I put "essential" in quotes here because I believe the definition of essential changes the longer services are closed. For instance, a dentist isn't really essential when they're closed for a month, but a 3 month closure is going to be increasingly problematic for people needing something more than a standard cleaning.

~~~
Someone
Years? IMO, looking at the stats of Western European countries, who are all
slowly lessening restrictions, typically showing both carrot and stick (“we
think x will be allowed again in w weeks, if you all keep following the
rules”), unlikely, at least not for countries with significant tourist
industries. They will feel pressure to allow tourist visits, certainly from
‘safe’ regions such as Australia and New Zealand.

(Whether those tourists will go on holiday is another question. Tourists may
be wary of going far away on holiday, and if social distancing will be
compulsory inside planes, and trains, travel likely will become much more
expensive)

It also will be hard for countries to withstand the pressure from their
population to allow them to go on holiday in other countries.

In the end, the better choice may be to allow some tourist visits, as that may
mean people will follow restrictive rules better than when they wouldn’t be
allowed to have go on holiday/to make some money from tourism.

~~~
em-bee
i don't think there will be much pressure from people wanting to leave. there
are plenty of alternatives to go on holiday. how would that work anyways?
people could complain or protest against local issues, but against a foreign
country? which one? everyone wants to go somewhere different. rally up, pick a
target and stage a demo infront of that country's embassy?

pressure is only going to come from inside from the tourism industry that is
loosing out on income.

~~~
Exmoor
I imagine the tourism industry will suffer to some extent, but if NZ/AU
residents are essentially restricted from traveling outside that zone, you may
see an uptick of travelers who would have normally traveled outside that zone
now choosing to vacation inside those two countries instead.

~~~
em-bee
good point. local tourism may pick up some slack

------
lixtra
> But it, too, has "flattened the curve" of infections.

It‘s sad that the article uses the term in such a sloppy way. NZ was aiming
for containment and eradication from the beginning.

There are three common strategies to fight the Corona virus:

„Herd immunity“ - Naturally letting it run out of steam. The problem is that
your health system might get overwhelmed. Therefore „flatten the curve“.
Advantages: new infections imported from abroad don’t matter; cost of the
counter measures to society is minimized. Disadvantage: virus damage is
maximized. Sweden is the classic example. GB, NYC probably.

„Dancing“ - try to keep the numbers low but live with fact that you cannot
eradicate the virus. If necessary bring the cases down by using the „hammer“
first. Advantage: imported cases can be contained; possibly time will bring
better treatment/vaccination. Disadvantage: expensive measures for indefinite
time. JP, HK

Eradication - Advantage: back to normal if achieved. Disadvantage: not robust
against imported cases. Possibly very expensive/unachievable. NZ

As one can imagine, changing from one strategy to another at first gives you
the disadvantages without the advantages.

------
AnotherGoodName
For reference both Australia and New Zealand each have fewer than 1000 active
COVID cases right now, many from a cruise ship, The Diamond Princess that was
allowed to dock in Australia. There's very few new cases appearing each day
and of those new cases there's no surprises and they are traceable to the
source. It makes sense for these two nations to trade and have tourism
internally and bilaterally. A source of current numbers of active/new cases:
[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
It's quite clear that both nations are close to extinguishing COVID-19 within
their own borders.

The reason for this is both nations closed the borders early back in February.
When that happened the fuckwit Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of
the World Health Organization came on national TV of Australia and said
"There's no reason to restrict travel". This was in February. Listen to the
fuckwit say it here: [https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/pm/is-closing-
borders-...](https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/pm/is-closing-borders-to-
chinese-citizens-the-right-move/11933686) Lawrence Gostin, an official in WHO
is also quoted in the above "it is unlawful, unnecessary and in breach of
international law".

I normally wouldn't be so harsh on criticism but this was in February. The
border closure wasn't some racist Donald Trump style effort. It was two
countries doing the right thing but the WHO is so corrupt and fucked up they
tried to stop it, even threatening they'd bring the border closures to the
international courts.

~~~
pixelbash
We (NZ) had -1 new cases a couple of days ago, it's working pretty well.

~~~
sonofgod
Did someone realise that one of the cases wasn't actually a case?

~~~
jstr
Yes

------
thinkingemote
Given the NZ borders are open to residents does that mean they are open for NZ
tourists elsewhere? Or is it a one way border?

If you are a New Zealander are you allowed to go to Italy for a vacation? Or a
conference in the USA later on?

~~~
em-bee
i don't think any country is concerned about people leaving, only people
arriving.

the reason the border is open for residents is because you can't reasonably
stop people from returning home.

~~~
thinkingemote
So those residents returning home have to go into quarantine? Or only non
residents?

~~~
em-bee
depends on the country. in china everyone has to go into quarantine, and i
believe i heard the same from germany too. i expect it will be the same in
many other places

------
daxfohl
If this goes on for years, I imagine the increased number of suicides due to
depression will surpass the covid-19 deaths.

~~~
ashildr
We will adapt.

But there will be a time before COVID19 and after and they will be different
in many ways we can‘t know, yet. I myself have this feeling of “One day the
vaccine will be there and everything will be as it was before“. That‘s wrong I
think, we already left the known track and while a vaccine-like intervention
will come, it will not get us back into the timeline we were in, before.

------
daxfohl
The irony of this is that the countries who were worst at their handling of
the covid problem will be at an advantage at the end of it.

~~~
atlasunshrugged
Why do you say that?

~~~
edgefield0
Herd immunity? Assuming such a thing can exist for Covid and it doesn't mutate
every season like influenza.

~~~
BeefySwain
Do we know it won't mutate? I was under the impression this was unknowable at
this point.

~~~
kube-system
There are already several mutations in circulation, so we know it _does_
mutate. The questions remaining are:

* how much does it mutate?

* does exposure to one mutation lend immunity to another mutation?

* does exposure to one mutation lend immunity to the same mutation?

------
macspoofing
What's 'a long time'? Two weeks? Two months? Six months? 2 years?

~~~
Thriptic
They presumably mean until coronavirus disappears or a vaccine appears and
everyone is innoculated, so indefinitely.

~~~
macspoofing
See .. you're speculating on what they mean. Wouldn't it be nice if they
provided a bit more information so we wouldn't have to parse out meaning out
of ambiguous statements? You know, they could provide some details on what
needs to happen to re-open. Are we waiting for a vaccine as a precondition for
reopening? Or herd immunity? Or case count to drop below X?

~~~
lutorm
Or maybe the world is an ambiguous place?

------
sergiotapia
Pretty stupid, their citizens will never develop herd immunity. And what then,
when they open up, one person will tumble everything down again.

~~~
AnotherGoodName
As if herd immunity is the only way. Note that Australians and New Zealanders
don't have immunity to a lot of things.

We're don't have herd immunity to Ebola. Instead we just don't let it take
hold. We have 0 cases of rabies. It no longer exists in any animals. Cholera
is almost non-existent. Occasionally a flight will come in that causes some
alarm but that's it. Malaria only comes from people who traveled abroad. Our
cows aren't immune to mad cow disease. But we don't have any cases here.

It's amazing what a bit of distance and quarantine can achieve. The two
nations are also close to eliminating COVID-19 internally. Sure international
travel will have to remain restricted but it's really not a big deal. Trade is
still happening, just not tourism.

~~~
augustt
Those examples are either not very contagious or not contagious at all.

~~~
makomk
Yes. Ebola, for example, requires direct contact with the body fluids of an
infected person. It also kills a high double-digit percentage of everyone who
gets it. This makes eradicating it entirely both more feasible and much more
important than a respiratory disease that can be caught just by being in the
same room as someone with no symptoms, and that causes mild or even no
symptoms in most people who get it. Covid-19 just doesn't have characteristics
that make eliminating it entirely look like a feasible option.

