
A Moore's Law for AI - giacaglia
https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-efficiency/?
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AnimalMuppet
Sure, it's fit a Moore's-Law-like pattern since 2012. Moore's Law wasn't that,
though. Moore's Law was a _prediction_ that development was going to continue
to follow that path. This paper doesn't seem to predict.

With semiconductors, Moore could see that we were nowhere near fundamental
limits of our ability to scale processes. With AI... are we? I certainly don't
know; I'm not sure that anyone else does, either.

Scaling down to smaller features was just dealing with assembling atoms. You
could see that, while there was a lot of work to do, we had room to keep
going. But AI is dealing with algorithms, and how do you know whether there's
still exponential room to improve?

