

Vatican Economist: Recession caused by low birth rate - cwan
http://www.zenit.org/article-28289?l=english

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dkimball
Note that the Vatican's not the only one saying this. Others have pointed out
that a larger proportion of elderly to young population results in smaller
amounts of wealth creation, larger amounts of wealth consumption (healthcare
and the like); and that old managers who are slow to retire give their
companies an unnecessarily hesitant, cautious character. In fact, doesn't Paul
Graham have an essay about this?

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RyanMcGreal
This jumped out at me:

> the cause is ordinary people who do not "believe in the future" and have few
> or no children

The notion that the reason people are having fewer children because they
_don't believe in the future_ is pure ideology. They may have accidentally
landed at the right conclusion (I'm not persuaded of this, particularly given
the opportunities related to immigration), but their reasoning is highly
suspect.

~~~
blue1
Gotti Tedeschi is italian. While it's true that a low birth rate is typical of
rich countries, it is also true that in Italy the hope for the future is
currently at historical lows (sociologists are also writing profusely about
this). Not that there is necessarily a causal link, of course.

~~~
DeusExMachina
I am italian and actually living in Italy and I can tell you this: Italy is in
a very bad historical period, with corruption and organized crime spread in
the government. I am one of the italians thinking that this country has no
future and this is why I'm leaving.

Like me many italians (good and smart ones that are not part of the actual
clientelistic system and are not able to get a good job) are leaving my
country. I also have a lot of friends that are deluded and do not plan to have
children, also because they can't get a decent salary to build a family.

I cannot tell if there is a casual link, though. Actually Italy is engulfed in
a media regime, where the prime minister own three major TV channels and
controls the three public ones. 80% of the people only get news form TV, and
TV is not telling the bad news. So there may be a link and I think that hope
for the future plays a big part, but I also think it's more than that.

I think that many things in the actual system contribute on the low birth
rate. About vatican I can tell you that they primarily look at italian society
and are very biased by their religion.

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Flemlord
The article ends with this sentence:

> Now, Gotti Tedeschi confirmed, "the only way to rebuild economic-financial
> balance [in America] is austerity."

From wikipedia:

In economics, austerity is when a national government reduces its spending to
pay back creditors. Austerity is usually required when a government's fiscal
deficit spending is felt to be unsustainable.

Development projects, welfare programs and other social spending are common
areas of spending for cuts. In many countries, austerity measures have been
associated with short-term standard of living declines until economic
conditions improved once fiscal balance was achieved (such as in Canada under
Jean Chrétien, and Spain under Felipe González).

Private banks, or institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), may
require that a country pursues an 'austerity policy' if it wants to re-finance
loans that are about to come due. The government may be asked to stop issuing
subsidies or to otherwise reduce public spending. When the IMF requires such a
policy, the terms are known as 'IMF conditionalities'.

Austerity programs are frequently controversial, as they have an impact on the
poorest segments of the population and often lead to a wider separation
between the rich and poor. In many situations, austerity programs are imposed
on countries that were previously under dictatorial regimes, leading to
criticism that populations are forced to repay the debts of their oppressors.

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rbanffy
A low birth rate is not surprising in the Vatican, but they will have some
trouble increasing it.

~~~
dkimball
I'm not sure if this was meant to be humor or not, so if it wasn't, I
apologize; but if it was, you win an internets.

(Is that an acceptable expression around here?)

~~~
decode
> (Is that an acceptable expression around here?)

You're new around here, so I'll explain your downvotes. It's not that a
particular phrase is or is not unacceptable here, it's that your comment as a
whole did not add to the discussion. Use the up arrow instead of writing a
reply if you think a comment was a good contribution.

~~~
dkimball
I see. Thanks for letting me know.

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blue1
It is worth nothing that this "Institute for the Works of Religion", aka IOR,
is basically the bank of Vatican. It is shrouded by absolute secrecy, much
more than the swiss banks for instance. In the past it has been involved in
rather shady stories.

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gjm11
So, this person apparently thinks that the way to keep the economy healthy is
for the population to keep growing without limit.

I fail to see why an unsustainable population bubble should be any better than
an unsustainable housing / tech-stocks / tulip / South Sea bubble.

(Perhaps he believes that a population bubble would not be unsustainable
because in the not-very-distant future God will step in and call a halt? Such
predictions have been commonplace for a long time and their track record is
not very good.)

~~~
ars
Why would population growth be a bubble?

Do you think that suddenly everyone will die, and the bubble pop?

~~~
gjm11
No, but I do think that it can't continue for ever. At least, not without a
bunch of technological advances that don't show any sign of being about to
turn up.

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diego_moita
The Vatican must be very happy with this "new kind of science" the blogosphere
created; the one that allows for tons of opinion with scant evidence.

Well, truth be told, not even them endorsed Inteligent Design, yet.

~~~
w00pla
The Catholic Church is scarily in tune with the latest scientific thought (I
say this as a protestant).

I would not be surprised if they have an army of economists.

~~~
diego_moita
Right, and I am not calling the Catholic Church scientifically ignorant. You
can point to lots of problems they had with science in the past (Copernicus,
Galileo, Vesalius, etc). However they're the religion that best learnt (even
if by force) that science must be respected. They even produced some very fine
scientists (e.g.: Gregor Mendel).

My point is rather that without evidence and facts it gets much easier to
manipulate debates with ideologies. I see the debates on forums and blogs as
being mostly heavy on opinions and weak on facts. And I see religion as a form
of ideology.

Disclaimer: I am well aware that I am giving an opinion with little factual
evidence; the exact problem am pointing in others. So please feel free to call
all of this self-contradictory garbage. ;-)

~~~
w00pla
> However they're the religion that best learnt (even if by force) that
> science must be respected.

The notion that there is (or must be) a conflict between religion and science
is fallacious. It is an idea currently extremely popular with 20 y/o know-it-
all angry atheists – but it is far from the truth.

Another popular related idea is that “you can’t be religious and be a
scientist” and that religious people are of lower intelligence (the latter is
usually proved with a pseudo-scientific “statistical” argument).

> My point is rather that without evidence and facts it gets much easier to
> manipulate debates with ideologies.

My biggest problem is that popular secular humanists try to pass of their
ideology as “science” – and doing it on the public dime too (while working at
educational institutions). Neither the church nor certain secular humanists
have a monopoly on the truth or scientific fact.

> I see the debates on forums and blogs as being mostly heavy on opinions and
> weak on facts. And I see religion as a form of ideology.

Most internet debates are nothing but a circle jerk. I increasingly see pop-
atheism as an ideology too. Nothing ruins social sites (such as reddit.com,
digg.com) as quickly as the influx of angry close-minded atheists.

That is one of the things that make ycnews nice – there aren’t that many
ideologues, and even those that are there, are well mannered and moderate.

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jwhitlark
Uncertainty about the future causes me to spend less, not more.

