
Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies - erentz
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/29/810722517/seattle-area-patient-with-coronavirus-dies
======
jp57
Is it possible that the virus has been circulating in the states since
Christmas or earlier?

I live in the states, though not in Seattle. My wife's best friend teaches ESL
at a major university. She has several Chinese students in her class who went
home over the semester break in December and January. In mid-to-late January,
the teacher, her husband, my wife, and I all came down with the "flu" in swift
succession, we all rode it out at home and none of us were tested to see if we
actually had the flu virus. We just assumed flu because what else could it be?
At that point, we'd never heard of novel corona virus.

The illness we all got was characterized by a deep and persistent cough and
chest congestion, brutal sore throat, and a fever with teeth chattering chills
and soaking sweats. We all had various levels of relapses of the cough and
chest congestion (generally without fever) after the initial recovery.

I stayed home from work, of course, when I was ill, but a few people I had
contact with at work also came down with something similar right after me.
Many had had the flu shot since we get it for free at work. The general
sentiment was that this years flu shot was a dud. I've been wondering if it
wasn't actually flu going around.

~~~
gdubs
FWIW our family got hit with the same thing. The cough was... different than
anything we’ve experienced in recent memory. I assumed it was the flu (we
stayed home and didn’t get tested, but it was pretty brutal.)

~~~
jp57
Yes. I have trouble describing how bad the cough and lung symptoms were. At
one point I remember saying "my lungs itch" and wishing I could find a way to
scratch them from the outside.

~~~
gdubs
My wife fractured a rib from coughing just to give a sense of how bad it was.

------
cheeze
Amazon recently announced that all non essential work travel is cancelled.
Friend who works there said they are taking it very seriously - any
"essential" travel must be approved from the highest levels.

They also announced that interviews will be conducted via VC going forward
during the outbreak.

I wonder if they 'shut down' campus and encourage everybody to work from home
after this, self quarantine kind of thing.

IMO it's the right thing to do. Not all sectors can have all of their workers
stay home, but Amazon employees (in Seattle, fulfillment centers are a totally
different thing) can easily work from home in almost all cases.

~~~
BooneJS
I wonder if this “temporary alteration” will impact the way business is
conducted long-term. Instead of choosing between conference calls or flights,
choose VC.

~~~
asdfasgasdgasdg
As someone who doesn't have to do business travel very often, I enjoy the
trips to go meet with long-lost colleagues. But at the same time, it's pretty
clear at least to me that most of these things are a waste of company money
and don't really move the ball forward much compared to typical electronic
collaboration. Selfishly, I'd be sad if business travel suffered a large
permanent reduction. But it would be better for the business and the
environment if it did, even ignoring the risk of propagating diseases.

~~~
runarberg
I have to ask—since you admit to causing environmental harm with your
admittedly unessisary travels—how do you morally accept the damage your
selfish actions are causing? I’m genially asking, and not trying to be
judgmental.

~~~
asdfasgasdgasdg
The company I work for uses high quality carbon offsets to reach carbon
neutrality for all business activities, including business travel by
employees. Of course, this isn't scalable, so it doesn't _really_ absolve me.
But the travel I do is also not _really_ optional. I just personally don't
think it's necessary or helpful. Doesn't mean I don't have to do it when I'm
called upon to do so.

The other thing I do is live a fairly carbon efficient lifestyle. I travel
much less than other folks in my income bracket, and I live in the most carbon
efficient city in the U.S. I take mass transit to work and don't own a car.
There is of course more that I could do, but if I zero out my usage it will
make precisely no difference to the outcome. So I also vote with my dollars
and my actual votes for political candidates who will push in the right
direction on this issue.

But more than anything, I think if I'm honest, I don't justify it. I just do
it. These scales cannot be balanced -- the human mind cannot encompass actions
whose harms are so incrementally minor and diffuse, but corporately so major
and severe. Our social heuristic engine is not equipped to process it, and
mine isn't an exception.

~~~
runarberg
Thank you for an honest and good answer

------
burlesona
First posted this on another article before seeing this one.

Not much information in this article, but given they only just reported new
cases that makes me wonder if this person didn’t come to a hospital until they
were in severe condition - probably because they had no idea it was
coronavirus and were thinking “it’s the flu, it’ll pass.” If so it likely
means many more cases in the community than we currently know about.

~~~
war1025
The fact that symptoms are mild in the vast majority of cases and there have
now been a couple severe cases positively identified basically guarantees that
we have widespread community transmission at this point.

Even among people with health insurance, the costs of visits combined with the
likelihood of being told "it's viral, just wait it out" mean that many people
simply won't bother with going to get a diagnosis from a doctor.

~~~
SpicyLemonZest
And it's not even just disincentives, right? If I feel bad but not deathly
ill, I don't _want_ to go to the doctor in the first place; I want to lie in
bed, where I have Youtube and crackers and there's nobody around to infect.

------
daenz
Personally, I believe most people should just accept that they are going to
get COVID-19. It's going to get spread around, and it's not containable.
You're likely going to get it. That's the bad news, but the good news is that
we have immune systems and we know how to take care of each other and
ourselves. Yes it's going to kill some people, no it is highly probably not
going to kill you. People will be sick and going on with their lives and doing
their jobs.

It feels like we're teetering on the verge of hysteria, but a little
acceptance about the situation would go a long way.

~~~
akvadrako
There are 86k confirmed cases globally. That’s 0.001%

Why would you think most people will get it?

~~~
conradev
The number of cases per day outside of China is still growing exponentially:

[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-
cases/...](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-
tot-outchina)

Until that changes it’s a fair assumption that a lot more people will get it

~~~
akvadrako
If you look at the log graph on that link it’s clear it won’t get 50000x more
severe unless the course drastically changes.

~~~
pbourke
Looks like doubling every 5-6 days. So a million cases in 35-40 days if trend
continues?

------
jcoffland
One person has died in the US. It's not time to panic. I expected more logical
comments here.

~~~
erentz
The concern is people have not been taking this seriously for the past two
months. This has resulted in the US being on the back foot and only acting in
a reactive manner. The CDC has fallen flat on its face and now state public
health departments need to try to pick up the slack. I hope they do.

Other countries are already trying to slow down spread via cancellation of
events and closures of schools. The same needs to happen here so that our
hospital system has a chance to cope. The real danger is what happens when the
19% of people who get infected that require some level of hospital care can’t
get it. The death rates will then rise considerably. Those are preventable
deaths if we slow this down.

There needs to be clear and fact based communication from authorities every
day about the current situation and what the public can do to play their part.
People panic when information is hidden from them, they aren’t stupid they
will see what’s going on. They need to know that all the correct things are
being done.

~~~
craftyguy
> The concern is people have not been taking this seriously for the past two
> months. This has resulted in the US being on the back foot and only acting
> in a reactive manner. The CDC has fallen flat on its face and now state
> public health departments need to try to pick up the slack. I hope they do.

Oh please. There's likely absolutely nothing the CDC could have done to
prevent it from entering and spreading within the US, given the nature of the
virus. What would have been an ideal situation in your mind, have the CDC
order a complete halt to domestic/international travel early January?

~~~
simonh
Over the last 3 years the CDC funding for participation in international
epidemic detection and management programs was cut by 80%. In addition the
several most senior positions responsible for pandemic preparation and
response were cut. The budget proposed just a few weeks ago again included
significant cuts in CDC funding, so the governments eye has not been on the
ball for quite some time.

Having said that you’re right that the CDC and health systems in general have
mainly and advisory and coordination, rather than a direct role in preventing
the spread of a disease. However they need to have the funding, focus and
senior representation in order to do that quickly and effectively.

~~~
craftyguy
Care to explain what "on the ball" would realistically look like for this
specific situation we are in right now? Because everyone else seems to be
avoiding the question.

~~~
erentz
If you're genuinely interested go read how other countries such as Singapore
have been handling it. For example Singapore has done a thorough job of
testing, tracing, and quarantining individuals and it's slowed the spread
dramatically there. They've also been communicating opening and honestly with
the public so that the public knows what is happening, knows the right things
are being done, and knows what their role is to play.

------
hinkley
When is it time to start freaking out? I have a friend who may be starting to
unhinge a little bit. Whereas I have some sort of stoic “this is completely
out of my control and will happen or it won’t” response that is probably not
that much more rational.

~~~
gdubs
It’s never time to freak out. That leads to poor decisions. It is time to take
this seriously. Beyond personal hygiene, plan on how you’ll deal with school
closures if you’re a parent (and ensure your school has a remote study
curriculum in place.) Consider if you get it, it could be fairly benign — so
you want to think about your role in reducing the spread to more vulnerable
populations. WFH if possible.

Preparedness begins in the household, to the community, to the state. We
should all do what we can to spread the impact of this and prevent a strain on
resources.

------
hnarn
If you are under 60 years old, the lethality of Covid19 is only 2-3x that of
the regular flu. Why are people spreading these types of news and commenting
on them like it's the end of days? We may yet see a severe pandemic in our
time but I don't see anything indicating this would be it, especially not
since lethality goes down with spread. The biggest concern so far people
should have regarding this virus is what it's going to do to your portfolio
seeing as the supply chain of half the companies in the world seems to be
disrupted in the coming months.

~~~
tristanj
> _If you are under 60 years old, the lethality of Covid19 is only 2-3x that
> of the regular flu._

That does not pass the smell test. According to the CDC, in the 2017-2018 flu
season, there were an estimated people 14.4 million cases of the flu for
people 18-49 years old, of which 2,803 died. That's a fatality rate of 0.02%.

The latest fatality rates coming out China show a 0.2% to 0.4% CFR for that
age group. Which is 10-20x higher.

It seems like you reached the 2-3x lethality factor by comparing against the
flu's overall CFR of 0.1%, which includes a lot of elderly people.

[1]
[https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm)

[2] [https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-
se...](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-
demographics/)

~~~
hnarn
I think you're correct, so I apologize.

------
crystaldev
We have no idea what's happening[1] so maybe paranoia is a reasonable default?

[1] [https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/us-
coronaviru...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/us-coronavirus-
pence.html)

~~~
gdubs
Meta point but when NYT introduced their paywall they said access would be
free during emergencies. Certainly this qualifies.

------
the_other_b
For others confused like me, this isn't one of the cases reported last Friday
that were reported as 'doing well.' Seems this is part of a collection of new
cases that weren't reported to the public (and still aren't).

------
aazaa
The article leaves more questions than it answers:

> A person in Washington state infected with coronavirus has died, according
> to the Seattle and King County Department of Health.

Was this one of the reported cases on Friday, or yet another new one?

Unfortunately, I suspect we've already moved past the point of worrying about
individual cases.

~~~
donarb
It was not one of the reported cases on Friday, the person that died was a 19
year old male.

~~~
donarb
Hmm, the president just said that it was a 50 year old woman that died. But
the Seattle Times stated that that woman was at home resting comfortably.
We'll probably know more after the 1 pm press conference by King County health
officials.

------
empath75
I think I’m going to start working from home.

~~~
beamatronic
It’s way past time for that. Meaning I agree with you.

------
crystaldev
.

~~~
brobinson
Trump just said in his press conference that the deceased was almost 60 years
old.

------
Medicalidiot
I'm not going to stop saying this. This looks very dangerous and we should
take very precaution possible to slow transmission. All nonessential travel
should be avoided, don't touch your face, wash your hands. Slowing this virus
down makes everything so much better.

[1] Estimate that the case to fatality ratio is between 5-8%. The transmission
rate is between 2 and 3. Both of these numbers are similar to the earlier SARS
outbreak in the early 2000s.

[2] The death rate in Wuhan is significantly higher than that outside. We want
to buy time so our healthcare facilities can handle the volume of patients.

Take precautions everyone! This may not seriously affect you but you can help
prevent the spread to people you love.

[1]
[https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/523](https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/523)

[2]
[https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.17.20023630v...](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.17.20023630v4)

~~~
ramblerman
> This looks very dangerous, fatality ratio is between 5-8%.

We're better than this at HN. There are stats on the mortality rates, and
given you are younger than 50 there is a less than 0.4% mortality rate.

Furthermore, recent autopsies have shown this is a virus that hits the lungs
more than anything else. China with it's incredible pollution, might have
skewed mortality rates that are higher than we may expect in Europe/US.

Yes, we should do all we can to prevent the spread. The biggest risk is health
facilities not being able to handle the amount of patients. This is very
contagious. So please don't spread panic, more people going to the ICU without
case doesn't help

~~~
vincnetas
0.4% is number of deaths / number of cases. Problem is that not all cases have
recovered and there will be more deaths among them.

But yes, main takeaways, don't panic, slow down spread as much as possible
(aka wash your hands)

~~~
baddox
Presumably there are also many cases that are mild and will never be tested or
reported.

------
tobsmagoats
Yeah this weekend is going a whirlwind, let's see what the President Trumps
remarks are today.

~~~
beamatronic
“Pence tells me no new cases or deaths, so it’s a hoax”

------
outside1234
We need to shut down mass transit (trains, planes) and shut down group events
including elementary school (which is almost like a bioweapon in terms of its
ability to exchange viruses).

Honestly, we should probably all start working remotely as well until this is
better understood.

We need to slow the transmission of the virus.

