
A Smart Plan to End the U.S. Lockdown Arrives Just in Time - Reedx
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-30/a-smart-plan-to-end-the-u-s-lockdown-arrives-just-in-time
======
Someone1234
So AEI's solution is mass surveillance of citizens, their movements, and who
they came into contact with? And they directly call for that to be a national
database:

> The AEI authors also call for a national surveillance system to tie local
> systems together and enable contact tracing throughout the country

This is like the 9/11 and the Patriot Act all over again. Why is it that so
called conservative organizations who proclaim to love "small government"
always push the most privacy invading and draconian solutions? I'd call it
turn-key authoritarian but I'm pretty sure the key will start out in the "on"
position.

Keep in mind this is NOT a solution to keep people safe, this is a solution to
allow US businesses to re-open sooner. It actually makes people less safe, and
seeks to compensate by robbing people of privacy all so that business can
resume.

~~~
mrfusion
I agree. It sounds like an awful solution. Imagine if they did this for
herpes.

~~~
Someone1234
If this ever comes online, I imagine they'll use it for all and any social
"ills." Including herpes. It will be like McCarthyism on steroids; guilty by
literal proxy.

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sjrd
For a privacy-preserving alternative, see Pan-European Privacy-Preserving
Proximity Tracing ([https://www.pepp-pt.org/](https://www.pepp-pt.org/)) which
was announced today.

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c0nsumer
And... that right there would also be a very sufficient surveillance system.
As much as I want this to be over, it's really scary hearing about a system
where everyone's physical interactions with everyone else is intentionally
logged and alerted upon. Even if this app was only really used for a couple
months to get us past this hurdle, it'll both condition people to detailed
contact tracing and will inevitably remain installed on many devices.

~~~
xorfish
You don't need surveilance. All recorded contacts can be stored locally and
only informed once a positive test is returned.

More information here:

[https://www.pepp-pt.org/](https://www.pepp-pt.org/)

~~~
klik99
My understanding of what you just said - status and contacts are stored
locally, and the user will manually mark themselves as "infected" after a
test. Presumably the receiver of that notification will have a local status
saying "get tested".

But when you mark yourself to infected, how does that resolve to notifications
for all your contacts? At some point that must hit the cloud and fan out to
everyone, meaning the contact list is shared at that point, and with a large
enough network becomes identifiable info. Esp if you combine that with
skimming contacts.

Is the GDPR compliance and on the wire encryption what keeps it private?

~~~
xorfish
You exchange a one time id with each close proximity.

If you test positive, you publish your recorded close proximities ids on a
public server. Authorities can supply you with a one time tocken with the test
result to append said server.

There are certanly more efficient and elegant ways to solve this problem, but
it is solvable.

------
DeonPenny
Wtf this sounds like nero burning of Rome level grabbing of power. Why not
just roll out anti-bodies test. I for one will not be participating in this.

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gt565k
Just give us a mass produced anti-body test we can take already.

This is ridiculous. If people can just take an anti-body test to show they are
immune to covid-19, they can safely return to work.

~~~
usaar333
It's unlikely that even 1% of the United States has been infected at this
point. What does the other 99+% do? Infect themselves?

~~~
hiram112
> What does the other 99+% do? Infect themselves?

Yes, sooner or later.

You need to get to something like 60%-75% of the population infected and with
developed antibodies before you can obtain _herd immunity_ in a given
population. Unlike the majority of our politicians, Angela Merkel was praised
several weeks ago when she told the German public, no BS, that 3/4 of the
population would end up getting the virus, eventually.

It's not certain we will even develop a vaccination anytime soon. Corona
viruses have been around in live stock for a long time, and no vaccination has
been created, even though it'd be very profitable. They've been promising the
elusive HIV vaccine for almost 40 years, and we've still got squat.

The virus is out. It cannot be locked away again, at least till the vast
majority of us are immune or dead. Waiting 'till next season is neither
feasible for the economy, nor society, and it's likely you'll just end up
getting infected with a stronger mutated version instead of this one a la
Spanish Flu Season #2.

We cannot keep our population inside cowering in fear forever. If we had
unlimited doctors, nurses, ventilators, etc. we wouldn't even bother having
this lock down, social distancing, or waiting. We'd carry on as normal, and
let the virus take its best shot. There is literally no other way to get out
of this.

~~~
usaar333
The problem is the hospitalization rate is too high even for a younger
population. If you could target even 2% hospitalized at 60% of population, you
would still need >4+ years at current capacity to get through this. You'd also
still lose 1/1000 lives (of younger people) which still is unacceptable.

Why is it guaranteed you need to get herd immunity? Can you not take the
Singapore/SK route indefinitely - heavy contact tracing + mask wearing + limit
mass groups to keep basic reproduction number under 1 indefinitely?

~~~
lokedhs
I'm in Singapore, and I can assure you that although we're not locked down, no
one wants this to last longer than it has to.

~~~
usaar333
Agreed. But to the point above, is it better to have 5000 people under age 50
die or just keep the current regime (which will probably start emerging mostly
as a ban on leaving the city) up for 18 months?

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_jal
This assumes everyone has a cell phone that can run these apps. I personally
know a few people who chose not to have one, and a few more who use old or
weird phones. And there are plenty more for whom no phone isn't a choice.

~~~
hhs
In Moscow, they just announced a plan and said for those who don’t have a cell
phone, they’ll offer a device.

Here’s the source: “But starting Thursday, Muscovites will have their
movements tracked through a mandatory app required on their smartphones. Don't
have one? The city says it will lend out devices.” [0]

[0]: [https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-
updates/2020/0...](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-
updates/2020/04/01/825329399/moscow-launches-new-surveillance-app-to-track-
residents-in-coronavirus-
lockdown?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates)

~~~
xenospn
They've been doing this in both Israel and Norway for weeks. Norwegian police
will actually pull over busses and physically separate passengers if they're
not observing adequate social distancing.

------
opwieurposiu
A smarter plan is to do what has worked in Czech Republic, and just have
everyone start wearing masks.

Masks are even privacy enhancing!

[https://www.marketwatch.com/story/should-all-americans-be-
we...](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/should-all-americans-be-wearing-face-
masks-to-protect-against-coronavirus-these-scientists-say-yes-2020-03-31)

~~~
asdkjh345fd
Why on earth was this downvoted? This crazy avoidance of masks in so many
western countries is disastrous. We've killed thousands of people, and for the
life of me I can not figure out why. Just cutting up old shirts and tying them
to our faces would prevent thousands of deaths, why are we still being told
"don't wear masks"?

[https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/28/masks-
all-...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/28/masks-all-
coronavirus/)

------
adamc
Sounds like the beginning of the surveillance state.

~~~
dirtyid
Because it is. The tidbits all these articles conveniently leaves out about
these successful responses from (more) democratic countries is that they are
closer to Chinese techno-authoritarianism than not: Korea (health officials
cross reference credit card bill, location data), Taiwan (tracking bracelet),
Singapore (bluetooth app), Hong Kong (out-of-home quarantine). China is
basically all of the above piped straight into police big data on top of
various human and environmental layers. That's what is required because
enforcing compliance doesn't scale with labour and quarantine dodgers are a
statistical inevitability. Many of these countries started off with human
monitoring. One of the key findings in Wuhan where there is magnitude more
spread than these countries is that you have to isolate positive cases from
whoever they cohabitate with (family, roommates etc). It requires forced out-
of-home quarantine or infected persons WILL infect everyone they live with.
These are known lessons that western MSM have deliberately overlooked until it
becomes too costly to ignore because it involves interrogation of whether it's
politically or culturally possible.

E: It's starting to feel like this entire process may reveal itself to be
liberal democracies equivalent of "Why Arabs Lose Wars", too many contemporary
cultural and political factors that makes effective quarantine impossible.

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kube-system
Just ask Facebook, they already have this data, don't they?

------
motohagiography
Sure, just legally privilege the PII data and its derivatives so that using it
for any other purpose than pandemic control sends the CEO of the responsible
company to prison.

If they aren't willing to include an explicit legal protection for the data,
it's bullshit.

------
k3oni
Not the worst idea(and i mean this in the context of the current situation)
and been done in other countries but i have a feeling someone's going to abuse
this in the end for other "needs" as it always happens.

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davidw
For those who might be skeptical when they see AEI, don't be. The article is
not a partisan think-piece. It's clear, straightforward, and based on science
and reason. Highly recommended. I've been sharing it with people in my city
who are concerned about "what happens next?"

[https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-
corona...](https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-
response-a-road-map-to-reopening/)

~~~
stonogo
I would prefer it to be based on science, reason, and human rights. Any plan
that relies on a "national surveillance system" needs revision.

~~~
davidw
I have a right to know if I've come into contact with someone with COVID-19.

See:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22753425](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22753425)

It's not 'surveillance' as in eavesdropping on all my calls and emails, it's
contact tracing.

And it should definitely all come with a 'self destruct' mechanism for when
this is over.

~~~
stonogo
Your assertions about the manner of surveillance are not supported by the
given documentation (and are implied to be incorrect in other parts of the
document). If they are diligent about that 'self destruct' aspect, I would
have a different opinion -- hence "needs revision" instead of a knee-jerk
"needs rejection" attitude.

------
p01926
GPS data is pretty accurate outdoors, but the second you step inside a store
the trace goes completely haywire and bounces round hundreds of meters in all
directions. So any warnings will end up so broad as to be useless. Even if
just 0.1% of a population are infected, you’ll end up with everyone getting
multiple alerts everyday. How does that improve our situation?

~~~
popotamonga
It says bluetooth

~~~
stuckinside
Permanently disabled on my phone.

------
chicagobob
That man is a genius: let's do wide scale testing & contact tracing!

Exactly what everyone has been saying for a while now.

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hirundo
What percentage of the population is it worth losing in order to preserve
privacy and resist surveillance? 0.1%? 1%? I'd probably pick a much higher
number than you would. Does that make me a bad person?

~~~
vajrabum
How much higher are you willing to go? Where does herd immunity start, maybe
at 70% immune? With a 3% death rate (optimistic with those numbers) that gives
you about 7 million dead. Absent a vaccine or effective, cheap and widely
available antivirals then we could all stay at home for 1.5 years. That might
cost more than we can collectively afford. That's probably a no, which leaves
aggressive quarantining and contact tracing as likely the only other way to
prevent that exponential explosion with its dreadful potential for death.

------
m3kw9
Take ques from other countries that has it under control and it expand on it.
The entire country need to be as one when enforcing not by local laws etc, it
will be too slow to propagate new orders

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stuckinside
Welp, guess I'm not going anywhere for a _long_ time.

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pengaru
"Smart" should be in quotes.

------
ur-whale
[https://archive.is/iMVKi](https://archive.is/iMVKi)

------
matmann2001
NO THANKS!

------
hprotagonist
Despite being from the american enterprise institute, I think this is the
basis of the only sane thing to do. In broad strokes it's what I've seen as
the only thing to do for the last several weeks: this is what "flattening the
curve" gives us time to line up.

I'd like to also see:

\- wide and free distribution of NPI in the civilian population. At this point
i think masking everyone up is sensible.

\- efficacy data for blood serum transfusions. If that can help provide some
immunity in critical populations like delivery people, grocery and pharmacy
staff, emergency responders and hospital staff: friggin' great. Keep people we
actually _need_ alive and working and remove them from the vector pool
temporarily. We're underway with frontline trials with this as of last weekend
in NYC.

\- maybe theraputics to reduce the duration of the disease, if we get lucky.
This is the choloroquine/favapadir/... fight that we seem to enjoy having.

Do that, and optimistically we can wind up to about 80% normal by fall. We'll
get the 20% rest back over the next several years it takes to crank out a
vaccine.

