
Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms - reddotX
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200130_37/
======
netsharc
Missing "[of Coronavirus]". Yeah the guideline doesn't say it, and we probably
can assume what infection they're talking about, but..

Reports say the German man who got the virus after having a business meeting
with a Chinese visitor said he had a mild fever in the weekend and slept it
off, and came to work on Monday, which must mean he had recovered. Reading
that makes me think the virus isn't a death sentence like many are worried it
is.

~~~
contravariant
It's only a 3%(-ish) chance of dying going by numbers published so far.

That's much higher than a regular flu though.

~~~
hanniabu
How do you figure that? Going off this source I see 170 deaths and 133
recovered. So of those 303 that have been infected with it, 170 have died
which is 56%. You can't count the other 7783 that are currently infected since
we haven't seen their outcome yet.

[https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

~~~
GistNoesis
This is not the right way of counting it. If it takes 40 days to be declared
fully recovered, the recovered number is going to stay low at least 40 days
(even though the people on their way to full recovery will most likely
survive), while the death number will be increasing from the pool of people
which became infected later.

To count it properly you need to follow what happened to people infected at
the same date.

~~~
hanniabu
Interesting, that makes sense!

------
Galanwe
I see a lot of people discussing the fatality rate, and trying to lower the
importance of being infected based on that.

We should keep in mind that "surviving" the virus does not mean you will live
happily ever after.

A lot of SARS patients that "recovered" ended up with lung or kidney disease
afterward.

~~~
puranjay
People are looking at the fatality rate as a % of total infected, which is a
misleading statistic. A better metric would be fatality : recovery rate.

~~~
sanxiyn
That is also misleading.

------
9nGQluzmnq3M
The article says a "new type of coronavirus", which is presumably a
misunderstanding on the reporter's part; it seems more likely that these are
asymptomatic carriers of the same virus.

However, if there really _is_ a symptomless or near-symptomless variant, this
would actually be great news, since it would spread rapidly and provide
immunity against virulent strains. And this in fact is what appeared to happen
with the Spanish flu, where natural selection tended to prefer less virulent
strains. (Really sick people stay home/hospitalized and don't spread the
virus; less sick or asymptomatic carriers move around and spread it.)

~~~
GistNoesis
That's not the way I read the report. I read it as it is confirmed that the
virus can spread before the symptoms appear. No where is it stated that there
is a new variant.

~~~
incompatible
I'm not sure that et even says that, just that they tested everybody who
arrived on the plane and found a few with the infection but no symptoms. It
doesn't say whether they can spread the infection in that state.

~~~
GistNoesis
Yes you are right. I misread.

------
TorKlingberg
In some ways that's positive. If the number of cases is higher than thought,
then the deadliness is lower.

~~~
hanniabu
That depends. They just may not be showing symptoms _yet_. If that's the case
then these are lagging indicators of what's to come. There could be thousands
that have the virus and won't start to show it for another few days. And those
would have been interacting with others that could catch it and might not show
it for a week or so.

------
choeger
That brings up the question of how many cases there really are? How many
people have been infected without any symptoms already?

------
unnouinceput
Quote: "Two passengers refused to take the test. And health officials say they
will continue to persuade them to get tested.".

Wait, what? wtf is that even possible with a government chartered flight? And
then what, the 2 were just left to go home and officials come to them every
day "hey, wanna get tested today?"

------
zmmmmm
I wonder what the specificity of the test is. Even 99% would still mean that
out of 200 passengers, these two would just be the expected number of false
positives, unless they have done a confirmatory test on them.

~~~
sanxiyn
They are professionals. Let's give them benefit of doubt, shall we? (I don't
know about this specific case, but yes confirmatory testing is usual
protocol.)

------
Gravityloss
Is testing fast now? Do patients who don't have symptoms spread it
effectively?

I'm not an expert, but I see two main possibilities: It can be contained. Or
it will spread all around the world and only vaccines will later make it go
away, if a large enough percentage of the population is vaccinated. How long
does it take to create a vaccine nowadays? And mass production...

~~~
avery-dawn
> How long does it take to create a vaccine nowadays?

[https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-
environment/artic...](https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-
environment/article/3047956/china-coronavirus-hong-kong-researchers-have)

From this article: “If the vaccine appears effective and safe in a number of
animal species, it will go into clinical trials on humans. This takes at least
one year even if expedited,” Yuen said.

~~~
tim333
Inovio of San Diego already have a computer designed but untested DNA vaccine.
In the past DNA vaccines have not been approved for use in humans but they are
partnered with a Chinese company and I'm not sure the Chinese will be as
conservative as the FDA in terms of trying things. [pasted from another
thread]

Their previous Elboa vaccine seemed to work well in tests though I think it
never made it to the field. [http://ir.inovio.com/news-and-media/news/press-
release-detai...](http://ir.inovio.com/news-and-media/news/press-release-
details/2019/Inovios-Ebola-Vaccine-Delivered-Intradermally-
Demonstrates-100-Immunogenicity-in-a-Clinical-Study-Published-in-The-Journal-
of-Infectious-Diseases/default.aspx)

I sometime think the testing protocols are a bit over cautious when you have a
candidate that is probably safe and quite likely effective.

------
pferde
This is the first thing that came into my mind when I read that various
governments wanted to evacuate their nationals from Wuhan. THAT IS HOW YOU
HELP THE VIRUS TO SPREAD, DUMMIES!

I get that they want their citizens to be safe (genuinely, or to win political
points at home - it does not matter), but it goes directly against best
practices in disease control.

