
I used primary data from WHO to predict the trajectory of the coronavirus - micahsiegel
https://www.facebook.com/micah.siegel/posts/10105250719128573
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WheelsAtLarge
We are going for a ride that sux. Please, everyone, get and be ready!

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micahsiegel
I used primary data from the World Health Organization to predict the
trajectory of the 2019 Coronavirus outbreak on a country-by-country basis. I
normalized the number of cases in each country to the population of that
country. This resulted in a normalized number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants
for each country for each day.

Using the date of the first confirmed coronavirus case in each country as its
day 0, I tracked the growth by day in normalized coronavirus cases per 100,000
inhabitants, from the earliest known start of the epidemic in each country.

Summary

1\. The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is at an inflection point.

2\. The data strongly suggests that the number of coronavirus cases grows
exponentially in countries that do not mandate quarantines, restrictions on
travel and public gatherings, and closing of schools, universities and
workplaces (“Social Distancing”).

3\. The number of coronavirus cases compounds at more than 25% per day in
countries that do not mandate social distancing. This behavior is consistent
across Iran, Italy, Spain, France, and the UK, each measured independently
from the date of the first case in that country, with root-mean-square
accuracy R^2 > 99%.

4\. The highly precise exponential growth strongly suggests that the growth in
these cases is due to an underlying biological phenomenon (e.g. virus
transmission) rather than due to an increase in the availability of tests or
the number of tests performed.

5\. At a density of approximately 9.7 coronavirus cases per 100,000
inhabitants, Italy mandated on 3/8/20 a complete regional lock-down, with
movement restrictions applying to about 16 million people (25% of the
population of Italy). The following day, on 3/9/20, the lock-down was extended
to the entire country (100% of the population of Italy).

Predictions

6\. US — I predict that the US density will reach the Italian threshold of 9.7
US coronavirus cases per 100,000 US inhabitants by March 30, 2020. This
threshold density is equal to the density of cases when Italy implemented a
regional lock-down that affected 25% of its population.

7\. US — I predict that the density could reach 87 US coronavirus cases per
100,000 US inhabitants by April 9, 2020, in some regions, unless further
social controls are adopted. I computed 87 cases per 100,000 inhabitants as
the threshold density at which all currently unoccupied intensive care unit
(ICU) beds would be occupied by a US person who is infected with coronavirus
and has severe, life-threatening symptoms. In other words, no regional beds to
house patients who are severely ill.

All of these numbers are an underestimate of the actual numbers with the US
numbers being one of the most underestimated. However, this underestimate
won’t affect the March 30 or April 9 prediction much (moving them sooner by a
few days) since the underestimate is a multiplicative factor whereas the
growth is exponential.

