
Now Don Dodge is writing about Paul's essay - mattculbreth
http://dondodge.typepad.com/the_next_big_thing/2007/04/since_when_does.html
======
bootload
Looks like Don has a history of picking winners working for _DEC, Forte,
Compaq, AltaVista, Napster, Groove, deNovis_ and now Microsoft. [0]

I love microsofties, they go straight for the throat. The circumspect ex-
softies trash MS these days for MS's lack of focus & ability to adapt. This is
because MS has lost their core asset, their API.

 _'... The cornerstone of Microsoft's monopoly power and incredibly profitable
Windows and Office franchises, which account for virtually all of Microsoft's
income and covers up a huge array of unprofitable or marginally profitable
product lines, the Windows API is no longer of much interest to developers
...'_ [1]

There is still some great stuff coming out of MS, but they hardly excite the
next generation of developers of software. Some of these issues revolve around
the dollar costs associated with owning MS operating systems & associated
software. Cheaper and more open alternatives don't help. [2]

To hear Office, Corporate ownership and X-Box [3] demonstrates to me the
developers have left, and _marketroids_ are bleating the 'marketing &
business' advantages, where in the past it would have been technical
advantages. [4]

 _'... Defaults. Microsoft will design Windows so as to enable computer
manufacturers and users to set non-Microsoft programs to operate by default in
key categories, such as Web browsing and media playback, in lieu of
corresponding end-user functionality in Windows ...'_ [5]

And as for Microsoft being benevolent, all I have to do is look at Don's own
first post in his blog to see Microsoft priorities in print. [6]

Reference

[0] Don Dodge, 'Linked in Bio'

<http://www.linkedin.com/in/dondodge?trk=btn_typepad>

[1] Joel Spolsky, 'How Microsoft Lost the API War'

<http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/APIWar.html>

[2] Why is it Windows OS has got more expensive, while hardware has got
cheaper? It's not distribution nor the OEM's installing the software. So why
has MS consistently increased the cost of owning their OS?

[3] Well maybe not X-Box. But how many developers have access to X-Box tools,
can develop for it & release software?

[4] MS did a great job unifying the hardware market from DOS to Windows
meaning you just plugged hardware in and it worked.

[5] Don Dodge, 19th July 2006, 'Microsoft's 12 principles to promote
competition. Read the comments concerning defaults and MS software settings'

<http://dondodge.typepad.com/the_next_big_thing/2006/07/microsofts_12_p.html>

[6] Don Dodge, 'Microsoft's 12 principles to promote competition' Ibid.

~~~
JMiao
XBOX is a closed system for a very good reason -- it ensures a general spec of
quality for consumers. Aside from obtaining a license, console manufacturers
like Microsoft enforce strict quality assurance measures on developers before
code goes gold (manufacturing).

Just think about the open-standard PC, putting aside some obvious benefits
like keyboard control: Who wants 50 unregulated, crappy versions of a football
simulation game? Additionally, 5-6 patches (normal with PC games) is simply
unacceptable for an out-of-the-box, plug-n-play device like a game console.

~~~
bootload
_'... XBOX is a closed system for a very good reason -- it ensures a general
spec of quality for consumers ...'_

Sony Playstation is a _closed system_ but i can still program qbasic on it.
[0] You missed the point. How do the next generation developers get a taste of
developing software for MS's game platform? Get a copy of Windows and start
with DirectX?

MS missed the chance to capitalise users from the next generation to create
their own crappy games, with some basic MS technology (compilers, languages
and editors), pass them around with their mates. I hardly expect anyone to
create a game worthy of a gold. But it doesn't mean you couldn't let users
try, for curiosities sake.

Reference

[0] Even if it was to get a tax break. I can also use antiquated Linux
operating systems and various hacks. Can this be done with XBoxes? I don't
know.

~~~
JMiao
Playing around with QBasic on an XBOX doesn't sound too practical, aside from
questionable tax tactics. =)

Have you heard of XNA? It's a popular C# framework amongst game developers
that allows anyone interested in game development to bring their creations to
life on PC and XBOX 360.

As a matter of fact, one of the projects I developed in university is now
being transferred to XNA by a friend of mine...some people from the XBOX Live
group saw our game and encouraged that it be ported to XNA so they can look
into making it available on XBOX Live Arcade.

~~~
bootload
_'... Have you heard of XNA? It's a popular C# framework amongst game
developers that allows anyone interested in game development to bring their
creations to life on PC and XBOX 360. ...'_

Now that's more like what I meant & more usable. Why didn't/don't they ...
[looks up XNA on google] ... ahh so they have thought of this ~
<http://msdn2.microsoft.com/en-us/xna/default.aspx>

Looks like you can run your code on the XB360 via the XNA creators club ~
<http://creators.xna.com>

_'... the XNA Creators Club opens up video game development to untapped
creative minds, enabling anyone to affordably build and play amazing game
ideas on Xbox 360 systems for the first time ever ...'_

Thanks for the heads up. That's why I do not discount MS doing some
interesting technology. This is superior to Sony who will not allow you access
to key sound & graphics API's without forking out the $200K developers
license.

 _'... As a matter of fact, one of the projects I developed in university is
now being transferred to XNA by a friend of mine...some people from the XBOX
Live group saw our game and encouraged that it be ported to XNA so they can
look into making it available on XBOX Live Arcade. ...'_

Good stuff. Just out of interest how is it licensed?

~~~
JMiao
There's two versions of the IDE -- Professional and Express. Express is
absolutely free and meant for enthusiast game developers.

~~~
bootload
'Express' ... but there's an annual $99USD cost to join the XNA club to get
access to the means to play your creations on the XBOX. But that doesn't stop
using your own machine.

It's like the Vintage Microsoft of old giving cheap access to their
development tools and with a bit of an extra cost platform.

------
pg
Hmm, seem to have hit a nerve here. I can't imagine anyone would have reacted
so angrily if I'd said Microsoft was dead in 1995. They would have just
laughed it off then. Because it wasn't true then.

~~~
reitzensteinm
I'm pretty sure that the way you're framing the debate doesn't help. Literally
speaking, "Microsoft is dead" just isn't true - as Don says, they're actually
still growing - it's their second derivative that's screwed. Nobody cares
about Vista, the 360 is about to be knocked off the throne by the Wii, the
Zune is irrelevent, opearting systems are steadily becoming a commodity and
not just because of web apps. I agree with it all, except I really question
your choice of words.

~~~
mattjaynes
"Literally speaking, 'Microsoft is dead' just isn't true"

Did anyone really think pg was 'speaking literally'?

~~~
reitzensteinm
Well, I certainly didn't think he was, but that's an odd thing to ask
considering the article we are discussing is basically some guy refuting the
literal interpretation.

------
pjzedalis
I think it's kinda lame how everyone goes over there and bashes the poor guy
about "Duh Microsoft is dying" or "Paul is right!" or "You can't control the
Internetz!!!"

Please, this is a well paid executive. He has business meetings with other
executives, oversees the big transactions. Paul may very well be right about
the future of our industry, of the Internet...

The problem is not that Microsoft is not feared, or that they are not agile,
or even that they are not aware. I don't think they really even care. As long
as the Citigroup's and other GIANT Fortune 50 companies are buying MS
products, they will be in the green for decades to come.

The fact that they are interested at all in what we like/think warrants some
credit, however little we collectively may give them. I like to keep it in
perspective, it's just a software company after all.

------
mattculbreth
"Sorry to burst your bubble but it was never Microsoft's intent to scare
anyone. Microsoft has a huge partner network of over 80,000 companies who
enjoy working with Microsoft."

Eh. I personally didn't enjoy working with Microsoft. Strange mix of arrogance
and mediocrity.

~~~
dfranke
"Strange mix of arrogance and mediocrity."

Those things tend to correlate positively.

------
JMiao
He called Apple a "hardware company." Sony is a "hardware company." Apple's
killer app, especially in consumer electronics, is software.

He then called Google a "consumer search company." Has he forgotten about
GMail and the power of web apps based around powerful search?

I completely understand if Mr. Dodge was taken aback by Paul's essay, but I
really do hope (at least for Microsoft shareholders) that Microsoft's Emerging
Business Group doesn't actually buy into these "classifications."

------
Harj
This is far too literal an interpretation of what pg's essay is saying. No one
is claiming Microsoft is dead today - rather they are dying.

Saying "Since when does growing $4 Billion a year = Dead?" sounds a lot like a
cancer patient in denial to me, "How can I have cancer, look I can still run
and jump today so I must be fine".

------
nickb
I often wonder what Don Dodge does at MS.... he's supposedly in Emerging
Business and yet he's often way off the mark and he spends an inordinate
amount of time writing blog posts. I think he's actually in PR/Evangelism
section... I often question his credibility when I find a link to one of his
posts.

He completely missed the PG's main point that no one is afraid of MS anymore.
He's pointing to revenues and yet he fails to mention MS's abysmal share
performance. Come on Don, at least read more than the title next time.

~~~
pjzedalis
He's filling in for Scoble.

------
mattjaynes
Wow, did these guys even read the last paragraph of the article? Almost on cue
they give the exact response predicted:

"I already know what the reaction to this essay will be. Half the readers will
say that Microsoft is still an enormously profitable company, and that I
should be more careful about drawing conclusions based on what a few people
think in our insular little "Web 2.0" bubble. The other half, the younger
half, will complain that this is old news."

------
hello_moto
He made a point when he said that these web 2.0 companies don't generate
profits as much as MS smallest business units.

Last night a friend of mine said this to me: "these websites will be empty
places 5 to 10 years later". That pretty much sums up the web 2.0. Sure it's
not another dot-com bust but it still not a long-term thing. Only the biggies
can survive while the niches will eventually died.

------
far33d
_

"Holding up Apple and Google as the Microsoft killers is curious. Microsoft is
a software company. Apple is a hardware company and Google does consumer web
search. I have a lot of respect for Apple and Google, but Microsoft killers? I
don't think so."

I think that's exactly the point Don. Desktop software, while still
(immensely) profitable, isn't the future of software.

------
mukund
well what did microsoft do way back, they bought hotmail for millions from
sabeer bhatia. Now what happened? hotmail is still way behind Gmail and yahoo
mail. Did they improve that? NO. That shows 0 creativity or understanding of
things. Only thing MSFT is good at is putting nice colors and popping things
here and there and calling it cool tech. Inane people dont see that for this
cool thing they are putting pressure on hardware, RAM guzzler cool things eh?

------
mukund
LOL people snooping on PG and reading the contents? Well this only shows that
they could better spend that time in building better things

------
pg
I added a link to this and some other similar articles at the bottom of the
essay.

------
gibsonf1
Wow. Congratulations PG, you have Microsoft on the defensive!

~~~
pjzedalis
With 60,000+ employees it's fairly easy to offend somebody.

