

IDC: Windows Phones to Overtake iPhone iOS by 2015 - tshtf
http://www.pcworld.com/article/230151/idc_windows_phones_to_overtake_iphone_ios_by_2015.html

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zephjc
If Microsoft had any vision, maybe they could, but they are pretty much
reactionary these days.

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tgrisfal
I'll believe it when I see it, or possibly even later.

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daimyoyo
Considering that by 2015 iOS will be on all (remaining) us carriers by then, I
seriously doubt it. Unless Apple shows up with an Etselesque iPhone 5, it's
highly unlikely that Apple will be seriously affected by windows phones.

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bradleyland
Apple has already "diversified" their iPhone line-up, as IDC suggests they
should. I would expect that Apple will continue their trend of keeping a
previous generation device available at a significant discount. Currently, you
can purchas an iPhone 3GS for $50. That's well within reach of the commodity
smartphone buyer.

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dagw
$50 + a high monthly contract. If you're willing to accept an arbitrarily high
monthly fee, then you can buy basically anything for $50. At least here in
Sweden the 8GB 3GS is almost 4 times more expensive than the cheapest Android
phone (both without contract). Until you can buy an Apple phone for $200
without any sort of contract then they'll still be far off from competing with
Android in the lower end of the price spectrum.

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bradleyland
Yeah, I guess the article does say "worldwide" market share. It's difficult,
as a US consumer, to develop a view of overseas markets because things are so
different here.

In the US, the differentiation you mention doesn't even exist, because _all_
phones here come with a contract. Even obtaining "no contract" prices is
difficult, and when you do get them, you still buy a locked phone that can't
be used on another carrier.

It's like dealing with an organized crime syndicate.

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mmcconnell1618
Go to a tech conference. Count MacBooks to PCs and tell me again why the army
of devs that choose Apple today will suddenly write apps for a soon to be dead
Silverlight SDK?

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dman
There might be other arguments to make the point you want to but mass
developer adoption is not one of them. Circa 1998 your line could have been -
"Go to a tech conference. Count PCs to Macbooks and tell me again why the army
of devs that choose Microsoft today will suddenly write apps for a soon to be
dead <insert technology here>?". Developers largely follow users - so I look
at apples enthusiastic userbase as a much more effective moat than Apple's
popularity with developers.

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askar
What will iOS be by 2015? When we are not able to predict what comes after iOS
5 how can IDC predict/project an arbitrary conclusion? Just doesn't make any
sense!

