
In Italy, Going Back to Work May Depend on Having the Right Antibodies - mitchbob
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-antibodies.html
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readhn
The problem is that we still dont know if there is long term immunity from the
virus.... even if you have antibodies in your blood. they might help you
tomorrow, but next fall or year the antibody titer might be low leading to the
loss of immunity for instance.

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__blockcipher__
We could re-test for antibodies at regular intervals.

Besides, the small chance of getting infected due to immunity eroding would
not be super consequential in the scheme of things.

In general I think people waste too much time with this whole “we don’t know
how long immunity lasts” line of thought. Immunity is a robust mechanism that
tends to “just work”. Even if mutations mean that what used to be 100%
immunity is now only 50%, the effect on net transmission is tremendous.

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sharken
I agree that immunity is what will help curb the virus, in Denmark “Herd
immunity” is the unofficial strategy.

I do think that a Corona pass would only make sense for certain parts of the
population only, e.g. the very old and those with other chronic illnesses.

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voyager2
In the US, the right to travel is one of the most basic. The right to work
comes along somewhere close to that. I couldn't have imagined Americans would
ever stand for such a thing, but current attitudes seem poised to easily fall
over to that.

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javagram
There are 19th century legal cases backing up travel restrictions to prevent
disease spread. It’s not something we’re used to after the mid-20th-century
eradication of most major diseases from the USA but there is ample precedent
in our constitution and laws for it.

For instance,
[https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/186/380/](https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/186/380/)
“ That from an early day the power of the states to enact and enforce
quarantine laws for the safety and the protection of the health of their
inhabitants has been recognized by Congress is beyond question. That until
Congress has exercised its power on the subject, such state quarantine laws
and state laws for the purpose of preventing, eradicating, or controlling the
spread of contagious or infectious diseases, are not repugnant to the
Constitution of the United States although their operation affects interstate
or foreign commerce is not an open question. The doctrine was elaborately
examined and stated in Morgan Steamship Company v. Louisiana Board of Health,
118 U. S. 455”

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sharken
Should we also get a “Flu pass 2020”, seeing as the common flu can also be
quite deadly?

And if the virus mutate into a new variant what then, another pass?

For those with chronic diseases and the very old, the next 6-12 months will be
very difficult and staying at home while practicing distancing will be a good
start. The data seems to support that the rest of the population should be
able to go about their ways without any pass.

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javagram
There is a quadrivalent vaccine available for the flu. And the coronavirus is
at least 10x more deadly than the flu. It makes sense to treat it differently.

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sharken
Is there any data that can support that 10x claim just yet?

An example:

In the US state North Carolina there has been 33 deaths to Corona so far,
source:
[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

The 2018-2019 flu season was reported to be 285 deaths, source:
[https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2020/01/09/ahh-
choo-...](https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2020/01/09/ahh-choo-flu-
season-hits-hard-in-north-carolina/)

So a 10x mortality would mean 2.850 deaths in North Carolina by December 2020
and you have to offset that with the above article that stated the following
back in January:

"flu season is officially underway with initial reports predicting it could be
among the worst flu seasons to hit in a decade."

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DanBC
Worldometers doesn't seem to say: How is North Carolina defining a covid-19
death?

At the moment the cumulative deaths to covid-19 appear to be doubling every 3
days. In some places it's less than 3 days.

That means in 21 days we'd expect to see just over 4000 total covid-19 deaths
in North Carolina.

~~~
sharken
So in 21 days the number of deaths will be 4000, while Belgium with a similar
population is at almost 1500 currently. That sounds rather unlikely given that
the population in Belgium is also older than in North Carolina.

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detaro
21 days ago Belgium was at 4 deaths, two doublings away from 33. They were at
30-40 total deaths 16 days ago, now they are at ~150 daily, total doubling
every ~4 days.

so going from 30 to a few thousand in 21 days is what is happening. Can NC
avoid that? Maybe, but I wouldn't bet on it personally.

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sharken
Now half of the 21 days have passed and NC have officially registered 117
deaths, so they thankfully won’t reach 4000 deaths in the remaining 10 days.

Data from New York points to Hypertension and Diabetes in the elderly as the
main cause of Corona deaths, that is something the US government should focus
on, source:
[https://eu.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/politics/2020...](https://eu.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/07/coronavirus-
ny-deaths-61-were-men-most-had-these-underlying-illnesses/2959183001/)

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jgalt212
All of this seems invasive, but so does a pandemic. Someone has to come up
with a plan on how to reboot the world, and this is a good first step.

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DeonPenny
Cuomo also talked about this. I'll give it to end of April to you have most
people back if not early may. This test, unlike the other one, holds a lot of
financial weight so it's going to get a lot of people on Wallstreet and small
business wanting to sponsor these tests.

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animalnewbie
Do there exist antibody tests right now for corona virus?

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javagram
Yes, the article states they are being tested in Italy.

One was just approved for the USA 2 days ago.
[https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/health/coronavirus-
antibo...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/health/coronavirus-antibody-
test.html)

