
The Mobile Downturn (continued) - dave1619
http://avc.com/2015/11/the-mobile-downturn-continued/
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guelo
Part of the problem is that Apple and Google will steal any successful idea
and incorporate it into the OS. Categories that could be thriving competitive
markets are subsumed and the category killed. Huge potential markets like
notes, calendar, voice recording, video conferencing, fitness tracking, game
leaderboard/achievements. Even little utilities like flashlight. Some
categories are outright prohibited, like phone apps or app stores on iPhone.

Basically the game is rigged, apps are just a testing ground for ideas that
Google and Apple can ripoff at their will. If you're extremely successful and
lucky the best you can hope for is an acquihire. But usually they just steal
the idea and kill the market.

~~~
wnevets
You make this sound like a bad thing. I would rather have the flashlight
option built into the OS than having to download some random app.

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guelo
We're obviously talking from an entrepreneurs perspective here. But, it was
entrepreneurs that discovered that a flashlight is a very desired utility. I
suppose the danger for users is that future entrepreneurs won't experiment if
they can't reap any benefit.

~~~
maxerickson
The silly candy bar phone I had 12 years ago had a dedicated flashlight with a
physical button. I think a bigger part of the explanation is that the camera
feature race led to leds being in every phone.

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dave1619
I'm not sure if I would call it a mobile "downturn" since mobile is here to
stay and may already be more important than desktop. I only see mobile
growing, especially with huge numbers of people still to get online via
smartphones in India and China. So mobile for sure has a great future ahead.
However, there definitely seems to be a maturation of mobile. It's no longer
the great "gold rush" that it was back in 2008-2010. It's much more difficult
to get traction on native apps if you're starting out, and even if you have a
successful app there isn't as much growth in new users as there was prior.

I think one sign of mobile's maturation is that people now see mobile as part
of a bigger integrated picture of distribution. For example, it's essential
(more than ever) to have a strong strategy to be on mobile, on desktop, and in
social channels. I think this makes it more challenging for small startups
since they typically don't have the manpower to do everything well. So you've
got to prioritize and go with what gives you the most bang for your buck.
Sometimes it's mobile; sometimes it's desktop; sometimes it's social.

~~~
gvb
More accurately, it is a mobile _app_ downturn.

My opinion:

* Downloading a new app has lost its novelty. It used to be "there's an app for that", now it is more "is it compelling enough to load an app to do that?"

* Mobile _web_ is good and continuing to get better due to better phones, browsers, and web sites. This is making apps less necessary and thus less compelling.

Personally, I treat my phone like my house. I am vary particular about who I
invite in.

~~~
gdilla
Downloading hasn't lost it's novelty (though it is still high barrier compared
to mobile web). It's discovery which is the problem. New publishers are mostly
doomed to fail. Apart from that, apps have short half lives. If someone
doesn't use your app everyday, it's basically toast.

Mobile web is getting better, but i'd still rather use facebook's app and
airbnb's app vs their adequate mobile web experiences. It's just a better UX.
For things like uber, you don't even have that choice. On the other hand, if
you're experience is not task intensive, mobile web is just fine.

~~~
wnevets
>Mobile web is getting better, but i'd still rather use facebook's app and
airbnb's app vs their adequate mobile web experiences.

I've uninstalled the facebook android app and switched to a chrome shortcut.
Works just as well and even gets notifications. Not to mention the better
battery life.

~~~
soylentcola
When I got my most recent phone I declined to install the app and it's
definitely noticeable. Even though I had app notifications off (I just get an
email if someone directly messages or tags me) it liked to run in the
background all the time and additionally, I got tired of it constantly trying
to push secondary apps for messaging and such.

Currently I use "Tinfoil" which is essentially just a wrapper for the mobile
site with a bit of sandboxing and tweaking. Not perfect but then again, I
prefer it to a constantly running, resource hogging, frequently nagging app
when all I want is to occasionally look at Facebook and see what friends and
family have posted.

(app in question, not affiliated:
[https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.danvelazco...](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.danvelazco.fbwrapper&hl=en))

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mark_l_watson
Good, good, good.

I know that he is talking about mobile apps as a business rather than the end
user experience, but I am disliking mobile apps from a user experience more
and more.

I access Twitter and Facebook on my Android Note 4 via their web apps - I like
the user experience just fine, thank you, and I don't worry as much about
giving mobile apps permissions that I don't think they need. I also logoff
after using the web versions of Twitter and Facebook. Maybe with finer grained
access controls in Android version 6 I might change my mind but probably not.

On my iPad, I find it much nicer reading GMail using the browser (not mobile)
version of the web app, including access to the calendar. Use the apps: no
thanks.

Web HTML 5 standards are fantastic - let's use them.

~~~
RankingMember
One "app" I would use is a browser plug-in that silences the "download our
app!" bars on all of these sites when you try to just use them through the
website from a mobile/tablet.

~~~
mark_l_watson
Seriously a good idea! I would buy such an app.

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dirtyaura
_" i can’t think of many consumer facing mobile apps that have gained massive
traction and sustained it in the past three years. can you?"_

Are there consumer facing web sites that have gained massive traction and
sustained it in the past three years?

Is the problem really mobile specific or is it just that consumer space has
become much harder in general as Facebook and messaging juggernauts capture a
lion share of people's attention.

In 2005-2010, when social media was still young, there were a lot of cheap or
even free marketing and distribution tactics that were not oversaturated, but
now as the new medium has matured a bit, and even less nimble players start to
understand the game, you need huge ad budgets to capture attention of
consumers.

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gdilla
mobile and mobile apps are just an access point. You still have to build
something people want. the fact you have an app buys you nothing itself
(though maybe it used to back in the early days of the app store).

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cinquemb
> _The funny thing about all of this is that I don’t see any shortage of
> entrepreneurs walking into our offices with plans to build and launch
> consumer facing mobile apps._

This is the interesting thing to me. I tried to explain this to some friends
who wanted to do something and they immediately wanted to submit themselves to
the walled gardens… well, I'll watch them try, I could be wrong, and that's
like Fred and their kindred that continue to let such people in the building…
now I find that phenomena interesting as well and wonder why?

