

The Next Silicon Valley - jaf12duke
http://measuringmeasures.com/blog/2010/8/9/the-next-silicon-valley.html

======
libbybrittain
Finally, someone weighs in on this debate with a genuinely intelligent
perspective grounded in history and solid critical thinking instead of bravado
and linkbait. The deep roots of the entrepreneurial spirit in the Bay Area
(and, really, California as a whole if you extend this argument down to
Hollywood) is hugely underestimated in thinking about what has made SV, SV. It
really is woven into the thread of what it means to live there, work there,
and thrive there. (And this is coming from someone who's an SF transplant in
NYC.)

Well done, guys. Bravo.

~~~
jseliger
In some ways, this post dovetails with William Easterly's paper, "Was the
poverty of Africa determined in 1000 BC?":
[http://aidwatchers.com/2010/07/was-the-poverty-of-africa-
det...](http://aidwatchers.com/2010/07/was-the-poverty-of-africa-determined-
in-1000-bc) ?

Notice this, from the post:

"1500 AD technology is a particularly powerful predictor of per capita income
today. 78 percent of the difference in income today between sub-Saharan Africa
and Western Europe is explained by technology differences that already existed
in 1500 AD – even BEFORE the slave trade and colonialism.

[...]

Why do technological differences persist for so long? The ability to invent
new technologies is much greater when you have more advanced technology
already. James Watt had acquired a lot of tech experience in the mining
industry which he used to invent the steam engine. Other people with the
ability to make steel could then slap his steam engine on a vehicle running
along steel rails and give us railroads."

Part of his (sobering | frightening | surprise) conclusion is that early
advantages quickly become cumulative advantages that can persist for very long
periods of time. The roots of Western Europe's success in the 18th and 19th
Centuries might be in 1500 or even 1000. You have to look very far back in
time to realize that. Likewise, the roots of Silicon Valley's advantage,
according to the post above, might go back at least a century.

That's not the kind of advantage you can uproot with some tax credits, a five-
year forecast, and a fistful of cash. You might need to play a game that works
on the scale of decades or longer -- far longer than any politician or city
booster thinks.

These kinds of ideas, whether about poverty in Africa or tech in Silicon
Valley, shouldn't be taken as overly deterministic, but they should be useful
to those who think about quick fixes for very wide, very deep problems.

~~~
Retric
The other advantage the valley has is newly rich people are willing to live
there based on its climate. New York survives in large part because of the
ecosystem of arts and entertainment focused on rich people who live there.
Random City USA is unlikely to have both, but they can be better.

------
skmurphy
Timothy J. Sturgeon’s "How Silicon Valley Came to Be" covers this as well:

    
    
       The fact that the San Francisco Bay Area’s electronics   industry 
       began close to the turn of the Twentieth Century should lay to 
       rest the notion that industrialization and urbanization on the 
       scale of Silicon Valley can be quickly induced in other areas. 
       Silicon Valley is nearly 100 years old. 
       It grew out of a historically and geographically specific 
       context that cannot be recreated. The lesson for planners 
       and economic developers is to focus on long-term, not short-term    
       developmental trajectories. Silicon Valley was the fastest 
       growing region in the United States during the late 1970s and 
       early 1980s; but that growth came out of a place, not a technology. 
       Silicon Valley’s development is intimately entwined with the long 
       history of industrialization and innovation in the larger San   
       Francisco Bay Area.
    

See <http://web.mit.edu/ipc/publications/pdf/00-014.pdf> I had blogged about
this in 2008 at [http://www.skmurphy.com/blog/2008/11/05/steve-blank-on-
secre...](http://www.skmurphy.com/blog/2008/11/05/steve-blank-on-secret-
history-of-silicon-valley-at-chm-nov-20/)

Three good books on how Silicon Valley came to be

"Understanding Silicon Valley" by Kenney [http://www.amazon.com/Understanding-
Silicon-Valley-Entrepren...](http://www.amazon.com/Understanding-Silicon-
Valley-Entrepreneurial-Stanford/dp/0804737347)

"The Silicon Valley Edge" by Lee, Miller, Hancock, and Rowen
[http://www.amazon.com/Silicon-Valley-Edge-Innovation-
Entrepr...](http://www.amazon.com/Silicon-Valley-Edge-Innovation-
Entrepreneurship/dp/0804740631)

"Regional Advantage" Saxenian [http://www.amazon.com/Regional-Advantage-
Culture-Competition...](http://www.amazon.com/Regional-Advantage-Culture-
Competition-Silicon/dp/0674753402/)

See also this thread: <http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=908026>

------
eitally
"Efforts to duplicate silicon valley tend to fail because they attempt to
follow the valley by looking at where it is now. They don't look at the
century of history."

The problem is that the solution isn't to endeavor to duplicate Silicon
Valley. The solution is to start small, foster communication and collaboration
between existing entrepreneurs, encourage and support a research-based
creative education from the youngest ages, and to cross-pollinate interested
parties with each other. Essentially, to take the lessons learned from SV's
history and start cultivating them at the micro level.

There are a plethora of options, but in every case the various problem solvers
are not self-organized to the extent that is required to make real progress.
Consider PG with YC (or any of the other tech incubators). They specialize in
matching entrepreneurs with each other and with VCs. That's great. Now
consider companies like 3M, IBM, and HP, that all have significant R&D
branches. Woohoo, but they're often isolated from the broader community due to
IP-loss risks. What about research universities, business schools, or NPO
research institutes? They certainly provide value and do great work, but there
is often a barrier locking out the business world (except in a few cases,
where researchers and professors (and their schools) actively look for
entrepreneurs to support in founding either spin-offs or private companies).
Finally, what about the -- for lack of a better term -- open source community?
The problem here is that "community" is too loose and lack of coordination is
the norm. Even in projects that have a charismatic leader who does an
excellent job stimulating communication, projects themselves tend toward
isolationism.

As the author notes, it won't be possible to create another hub innovating at
ludicrous speed without looking at the problem organically and starting small.

------
jasonlbaptiste
Wow, usually the title of articles like this turns me off. It's not yet
another "can my town be the valley!" posts. It's a good in-depth look at SV
itself and an analytical insight into why SV is what it is/where the next one
might pop up for the same reasons.

------
listic
(Full disclosure: I have graduated from Popov Electrical Engineering
University, St.-Petersburg, Russia)

It bothers me how every time someone mentions the invention of radio, they
seem to mention Marconi, not Popov
(<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Stepanovich_Popov>)

Could it be because the history is written by the winners i.e. if Russia would
be the world leader in electronics today, more people would recognize Popov
than Marconi?

~~~
kqr2
But even Popov gives earlier credit to Tesla:

    
    
      In 1900, Popov stated at the Congress of Russian Electrical Engineers that,
    
      "the emission and reception of signals by Marconi by means 
      of electric oscillations was nothing new, as in America 
      Nikola Tesla did the same experiments in 1893."
    

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_radio>

------
api
There's a great point here that the post doesn't really go into enough detail
about: in many (most?) places, business and financial types are focused on the
goal of trying to find ways of making money without actually creating any
value.

The mentality seems to be: Creating value is hard! Let's find a way to just
make money off "immaterial" assets, financial manipulation, pure marketing and
reselling, etc.

In the valley, people still look for ways to make money by making things that
people want.

~~~
russell
The NYC financial mindset has little to do with it. It's more useful to
compare SV with Route 128. In the late 60's both seemed to be roughly
equivalent: dominant technology schools, an educated population, and a strong
hi-tech business base. But there was a strong cultural difference. If an
engineer left HP, he would be encouraged, and often HP would be a customer. If
you left DEC, you were a traitor. You were the enemy, never to repatriated.
May your children burn in hell. In the end cooperation beat out secretiveness
and destructive competitiveness.

~~~
rjurney
For more info, see entire book on this topic by AnnaLee Saxenian:
<http://books.google.com/books?id=gnh2Rb1rcMIC>

------
dotcoma
SV as "the digital Florence". I like that.

------
noonespecial
_They do not see the past. They do not see the context, or the trajectory.
They are_ Heisenberging _the valley at some snapshot in time._

Can't wait to use Heisenberg as a verb in some idel conversation. Pure win.

