
Why war is coming, in our lifetime - sudoscript
http://sudoscript.com/war-is-coming/
======
exelius
War is coming, but military power is also more asymmetric than ever. The US
fared relatively poorly in the skirmish-like proxy wars of the last 50 years,
but that's a different type of warfare than another world war would be. The
goals aren't to win and hold territory, the goals are to create a stable
environment. All the opponent has to do is create chaos with guerrilla warfare
and the US loses.

When you're talking about a total war scenario, the US is effectively
unbeatable for a lot of reasons. Ignoring the amount we spend (much of which
is wasted on graft and ineffective procurement), we hold the distinct
advantage of geography. We're fully capable of building a war machine all by
ourselves -- we have the raw materials, the industry, and most important of
all: a several-thousand mile long buffer zone between the US and any potential
enemy looking to disrupt production.

China is the only real rising threat, and even then, they have two or three
decades of catching up to do. And ultimately, I'm not convinced there are any
resources that China and the US both covet so much as to go to war with each
other: both are large, geographically diverse countries with a wide range of
natural resources. The Chinese also have very little to gain by a shooting
war: they will naturally eclipse the US in a global economy in the next 100
years anyway, so why bother fighting a dangerous enemy on the battlefield when
you have better economic weapons?

~~~
natrius
You're thinking about the old kind of war. If China wanted the US to suffer,
they'd just create versions of ISIS for each minority group—persuasive
ideologies that present violence as the only option—and watch as the country
tears itself apart.

~~~
bbatha
> If China wanted the US to suffer, they'd just create versions of ISIS for
> each minority group—persuasive ideologies that present violence as the only
> option—and watch as the country tears itself apart.

The USSR tried to pursue a softer version of this strategy, often highlighting
racial tensions in the U.S. and poor civil rights for Black People in the U.S.
However, it really wasn't all that successful. It turns out despite poor
conditions for many racial groups, a shared national identity wins out.

~~~
dctoedt
> _It turns out despite poor conditions for many racial groups, a shared
> national identity wins out._

And it's not clear how much of that is present in China.

> _If China wanted the US to suffer, they 'd just create versions of ISIS for
> each minority group—persuasive ideologies that present violence as the only
> option—and watch as the country tears itself apart._

Two can play at that game. (Although the long-term consequences might be
unpleasant, as the U.S. has learned about its support of Afghanistan's
mujahideen after the U.S.S.R. invaded in 1979.)

------
ctvo
James Allworth wrote something similar that made the case better:

[https://medium.com/@jamesallworth/brexit-trump-and-the-
ultim...](https://medium.com/@jamesallworth/brexit-trump-and-the-ultimatum-
game-2237e17de71c#.p8h2i1psh)

------
dudul
Not sure I understand, war never stopped:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflict...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts)

------
danesparza
So this anonymous person (seriously: do a whois on the domain) posts a list of
vague conspiracies and ... we're supposed to do what? Tremble? Change?

How is this on Hacker News?

~~~
Udo
_> How is this on Hacker News?_

It's not very different from dossiers that (intelligence, financial,
political) analysts write about different scenarios all the time. While the
text does contain more emotional imagery and blog-style tag lines, you'll
basically find the same content in many organizations' databases.

Personally I think there is at least some merit to the reasoning behind this
specific scenario: the population of the West is beginning to reject the
globalisation effects that have brought global peace but left many
disadvantaged, while religious and ideological radicalism is sharply on the
rise world-wide. As the intellectual level of discourse is declining, the
influence of populist ideas is becoming ever greater. From a bird's eye
perspective, it seems humanity overall is in the process of rejecting peace,
science, and secularism in favor of short-sighted economic considerations and
dubious promises.

------
Hnrobert42
The end has been nigh nigh on forever.

~~~
SteveNuts
Yup. I'm honestly sick of it. Everyone I talk to seems to think "the country
has gone to shit" or another world war is just around the corner.

Maybe I just don't see how bad things are from my little bubble, but the
people I hear it from seem to be doing fine.

My guess is it's caused by consuming too much media, watching CNN or Fox News
for too long seems to put fear into people.

~~~
lintiness
>My guess is it's caused by consuming too much media, watching CNN or Fox News
for too long seems to put fear into people

bingo!

------
veeragoni
As long as the world is looked this way: Socialism is still an enemy which
talks about income equality (Fair share of goods and services) Capitalism is
still a friend which brings the income inequality (Winner takes it all)

We are not human anymore. We are the crazies who put end to a planet much
faster than any other animal can do. may be thats what human really means.

Find the planet faster which is immune from crazies Build those rockets
quicker which can fly my kid to a safer place.

------
vixen99
Let's take one of the 'signs', taken to be 'Brexit in the UK'. For most people
the issue came down to asking that vital political question that has to be
considered in any country: who has the power and how can it be removed if the
demos so decides?

Brexit concluded (among other issues) that letting 28 un-elected commissioners
decide EU law and preventing elected members of the European parliament (MEPs)
from initiating new legislation or repealing existing law was not acceptable.
As to removal of the governing body, unless I'm mistaken that's not possible.
You can only vote for MEPs. Thus, UK citizens opted by a majority for control
returned to Britain.

Was nationalistic xenophobia on display? Short answer, no! New research from
ICM for British Future finds that 84% of the British public supports letting
EU migrants stay – including three-quarters (77%) of Leave voters. Among
Conservatives, support for protecting the status of EU citizens in the UK and
UK citizens in Europe is even higher at 85%, with 78% of UKIP supporters in
agreement.

Aggrieved peoples within a trans-national entity may not contribute towards a
recipe for a peaceable environment.

------
atemerev
Well, of course the war is coming. The reasons are purely economical. When
there are too many hands and too few jobs, war is inevitable. There are no
unemployed at war, and after the war too, when those survived gather to
rebuild their homelands.

Political implementations may vary, but the world is driven by economy.

------
ulrikmoe
"Technology and globalization radically expanded the pie, but they also shrank
the number of people who got the big pieces."

All this talk of US income and wealth inequality... First of all, global
inequality is falling. This is indisputable! Secondarily, the pie should be
measured in actual consumption, not in income or wealth. Look at what Mark
Zuckerberg consumes, not what he earns!

~~~
dionidium
You and I know that in absolute terms people are better off now than they were
30 years ago. But, that's simply not how regular people view the world. Their
evaluations are relative. They will always be relative.

~~~
jrs235
And as the essay mentions - "But human psychology doesn't work in absolute
terms. It works in relative ones." \- this is how psychology works.

As much as all the "logical" and "rational thinking" folks in the world want
to ignore and dismiss emotions and politics in decisions and actions, the
truly rational thinking and logical decisions and actions understand, accept,
and take into account emotions and politics.

------
_rpd
This analysis doesn't seem to take into account the existence of nuclear
weapons. Military escalation has a very definite endpoint. Use of nuclear
weapons is not unthinkable if a nation feels genuinely threatened. Wars will
remain limited and proxy until there is an effective counter to nuclear
weapons.

~~~
tLeL4X4b
You underestimate the power of the dark side. While most people think nuclear
war is loose-loose, some may think differently, especially when anger is
overflowing. From the logical point of view Hitler should have never started
the war, yet he did.

------
daxorid
As a nationalist, I can certify that the author gets their understanding of
our motivations completely wrong. Indeed, every time Trump or Le Pen are
dismissed as "crazies", our resolve only gets stronger.

The abject refusal of the Left to even so much as _attempt_ to understand this
incipient uprising is shocking.

~~~
Udo
> _Indeed, every time Trump or Le Pen are dismissed as "crazies", our resolve
> only gets stronger._

Of course, that's entirely expected. I doubt this is a criticism meant to
weaken your resolve. Like most political posturing, it's not directed at the
enemy, but at the home base. If it _also_ strengthens the enemy's resolve
that's just an added bonus.

> _The abject refusal of the Left to even so much as attempt to understand
> this incipient uprising is shocking._

The article takes a decent stab at trying to understand your motivations. I
would summarize them like this:

You feel your way of life is under attack, the very foundations of society are
threatened by the erosion of religious morals. You feel that your nation, once
destined for true and unique greatness, might become nothing but a weak and
unrecognizable shadow in a larger political landscape. You feel that
traditional roles of gender, class, and race, are becoming irrelevant,
degrading society into a chaotic free-for-all where only the weak and
perverted thrive, and poor people are getting a free ride. You feel that
forces beyond your control are taking away your liberties while at the same
time giving too many liberties to classes of people you don't like. You feel
that education and science are unnaturally superseding righteous decisions
made by people who simply know in their guts what's right and what's wrong.
You feel you live in the unbroken tradition of like-minded and wise people who
have endured through thousands of years, and now it's your generation's turn
to keep this tradition alive, which is at this moment facing the greatest
threat it has ever known.

Of course, this is a huge list of grievances, and you very likely don't share
every single one of them. But your concerns are in there, right? If not, I'd
be very eager to hear them!

------
Mendenhall
War has always been here. Some just choose to not look at it.

------
natrius
While the nationalism wave is terrifying, telling people that war is coming
only speeds up the wave.

------
exabrial
Says nothing about Clintons being immune to prosecution though.

------
lintiness
i wish i could live in as simple a universe as this person. maybe our anger
stems from boiling down the "other" to "crazy" and "stupid" and "ignorant"
rather than giving them the benefit of the doubt and making an honest attempt
to understand them.

