
Google Buzz is brilliant, Facebook just lost half its value - ALee
http://calacanis.com/2010/02/10/breaking-google-buzz-is-brilliant-facebook-just-lost-half-its-value/
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dasil003
God I feel like I'm being trolled here, but I'll bite.

Let's assume Google Buzz is undeniably better than Facebook.

Let's also assume no one is really invested in the 90% of Facebook
functionality that Google Buzz doesn't address.

Hell, let's assume any user who tries Google Buzz will instantly declare
eternal allegiance to Larry and Sergey and immediately delete their Facebook
account.

Even with all those dramatically dubious flamebait claims, how the hell is
Google going to get everyone to try Buzz. Since when do better products
automatically win in the tech marketplace? If Calacanis is going for pageviews
then I say well-played, but if he actually believes this tripe then he's
dumber than he is arrogant.

~~~
jasonmcalacanis
Look at the sick amount on activity on this thread.... and this is day one of
Buzz.

<http://bit.ly/daBl66>

100+ people like it. ~200 comments from quality people.

This is game over for Facebook for everyone who doesn't play Farmville.

I've never seen pickup like that, and that is with just 2,000 followers.

I have 25k followers on my fanpage on Facebook and 5k on my normal facebook
page.

in fact, i've never seen pickup like that on my blog with 250k uniques a
month.

the only thing close to that i've seen is Twitter, but those responses are
limited to the 90k followers i have and 140 characters each.

Also, it's not just this thread... scoble is having the same experience: more
activity than ever.

it's a targeted network: people you've spoken to + 100% reach for your
comments with that network since they HAVE TO go to their inbox.

this really is unprecedented: the reach of email with the power of social
networking.

~~~
dasil003
_Look at the sick amount on activity on this thread.... and this is day one of
Buzz._

Right. The day when every bored geek in the valley gives it a spin.

Mark my words, a year from today Facebook will be in no weaker position than
it is today, and Buzz may or may not be relevant, but it certainly won't be
dwarfing Facebook—not by a long shot. If you disagree name your metrics, and
I'll do a writeup a year from today and whore it up here on Hacker News.

Typically I don't consider you to be as much of a koolaid-drinker as Scoble,
but man you really went off the deep-end this time.

~~~
jasonmcalacanis
you're comparing me to scoble?!?!?! i think i'm going to go jump off a bridge.

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jasonwilk
i wish there was a way to send calacanis a virtual slap in the face for this
one. So wrong.

To answer his questions:

1\. Have you used Google Buzz? Yes, I think I'm perceived as a target user.
Tried it, quit it. 2\. How is Google Buzz better than Facebook? It's not. 3\.
What advantages does Google Buzz have over Facebook? That it lives in Gmail,
but that's still not compelling. 4\. What advantages does Facebook have over
Google? My friends/social graph algorithms/news feed 5\. Did you see this
coming? Sure, why wouldn't Google try this. They have 20,000 employees. This
maybe took 5 weeks and 3 dev guys to hack up. 6\. What do you attribute
Google’s recent string of AMAZING products including: Chrome, Android, Nexus
One and Buzz? Nexus One has a nice screen resolution. That's about the only
good thing.

~~~
NiftyIon
I dunno, I feel like you're being a bit overly critical here. In my mind, Buzz
isn't competing with Facebook, it's competing with Twitter. Buzz is Twitter
for the masses. And personally, I know that due to Gmail integration, I'm
going to be using it - unlike Twitter or Facebook.

People seem to _want_ Buzz to fail for some reason. I feel like people saw
Wave, decided "Oh, Google failed, they can't possibly make a new product
right", and are now trying to pin that on Buzz too.

Anyway, I'm using it, as are a bunch of my friends. People are already using
it in my social friend graph, and enthusiastically, too - which is much more
than could be said for Wave. I'm not saying it's going to be a huge success,
but I think it's silly to just brush it off as crap so quickly.

~~~
danudey
> I know that due to Gmail integration, I'm going to be using it - unlike
> Twitter or Facebook.

Funny - due to gmail integration, I'll never use it.

It feels to me like an issue of kool-aid. If you accept the assertion that
everyone uses gmail, and that everyone loves the gmail interface, and that
people keep gmail open all day (or at least check it fairly often), then
Google Buzz seems like a great idea - a social network tied into all the
services you use every day.

It breaks down when you start breaking those assertions. If you're not in
Gmail every day (e.g. if you use an IMAP client), or if you don't like the
interface (but you have to use it, e.g. Google Apps), or if you don't use
gmail at all, then Google Buzz becomes a huge hassle to use.

I'd love to love Buzz, because I like awesome things, but it seems to me that
the Buzz team just assumes everyone loves Gmail as much as Google does, and
that's not going to pan out. They might think Buzz will be a draw to Gmail,
but in reality Gmail will be a barrier to Buzz.

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mr_eel
It's the users. Facebook's value isn't going to vary any unless there is some
migration from Facebook to Buzz.

What exactly does Buzz offer that Facebook doesn't? What kind of recognition
will it have?

This is all very interesting, but it's _far_ too early for this kind of
hyperbole.

~~~
tokenadult
_Facebook's value isn't going to vary any unless there is some migration from
Facebook to Buzz._

It has been done before. Do you remember Prodigy? CompuServe? AOL? MySpace?

For that matter, how often do you use the search engines Excite, Lycos,
AltaVista, or whatever Microsoft's search engine was before Bing?

Users go where the user experience is pleasant. Advertisers look for click-
throughs, and try to estimate eyeball-minutes for the major sites, and Google
has a fair chance of beating Facebook with Buzz. Not overnight, but steadily.
Many of my Facebook friends haven't seen the Google Buzz roll-out yet, but
they have seen the new Facebook homepage roll-out, and they don't like it.

AFTER EDIT: And it occurs to me that Calacanis's main statement, that Facebook
lost value, is hard to test while Facebook is not publicly traded. But
Google's value is easy to track in the stock market. If this move looks stupid
to Google investors, their behavior will show that.

~~~
waterlesscloud
The cost of leaving facebook is higher than it was for leaving any of those
other platforms. People have their social graphs well-established on Facebook
now. Not a bad guess at their desired graph, as Buzz provides, but a graph
they've shaped themselves over the course of a year or more.

Me-too or even evolutionary won't cut it for draining Facebook of its users.
It's got to provide signficantly more value immediately upon signing up. So
far, it doesn't.

~~~
marciovm123
I think you have to think of this utility in terms of how the two social
graphs are different.

The Facebook social graph is established by people you meet in person and who
decide later to send you a friend invite, or people you knew at some point who
saw your picture on someone else's friends list. The strength of the
connection is determined by Facebook based on how often you interact with or
stalk that person.

The Gmail social graph is people you actually communicate with, and is more
dynamic in the sense that you probably communicate with more people on a day-
to-day basis then you interact/stalk with on Fb.

The question is, which of these makes for a more relevant following system,
and for what kind of user?

Perhaps one way to think of it is that people who are all about sharing
pictures will prefer Fb, but those who are all about sharing ideas will prefer
Buzz. Which target demographic has more income?

~~~
HelenL14
That's an interesting way of looking at it, but you're still talking about
"preference" of one over the other. Unless there's a new tool out there that
can integrate everything for me, (even if I prefer FB/Buzz/Twitter/etc.) I'll
still probably use all of them for those precise separate reasons.

I think it'd be interesting to see how many NEW social network users Buzz will
bring in, just because of the simple fact that it makes setting up a brand new
network easy as pie (vs FB and having to build up to a nice little community
of friends).

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motters
I've tried Buzz, and it doesn't look like anything special to me. Google are
going to need to do more work if they're hoping to take on the likes of
Facebook with this.

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anderzole
Is Calacanis really this much of an idiot?

~~~
dotcoma
apparently, yes.

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mhartl
Perhaps Buzz will prove to have enduring value, but so far my experience is
like this: I'm 'following' people I never followed, some of whom I don't even
know but who I apparently emailed at some point; and they're clogging up my
Google Reader feeds to boot. It sure seems like Google doesn't understand
social behavior very well...

I may be wrong about Buzz, but my first impression was not good.

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jhuckestein
I think Buzz's most fatal flaw is that it relies to heavily on Gmail. Anybody
who hasn't used gmail until now will probably not start using Buzz.

Another thing (but that's very imho) is that Google applications still look
and feel like Excel. They are certainly very good, but also feel like work.

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og1
Facebook has lock-in. I don't think most Facebook users jump from app to app
that quickly.

~~~
robryan
myspace also had lock in.

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hendzen
When you're trying to displace a competitor that has a complete hold on the
market, it's not enough to have something with a few added features
(mathematically expressed as x + 1), you need to have a revolutionary product
(x^2).

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ashishbharthi
Currently the only advantage Google Buzz has over Facebook is it lives in
Gmail.

~~~
robotron
and integrates nicely with Reader.

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richcollins
Why the hell does anyone still read anything that this guy writes. More often
than not he's full of shit. Why risk your time trying to figure out which is
the case for any single piece of his writing.

~~~
HelenL14
It spurs interesting debate when someone puts a strong stake in the ground. I
mean, look at this thread :)

~~~
richcollins
He's just following the formula for getting attention. 1. Watch for some news
trend 2. Write an inflammatory post 3. Get more followers on Twitter

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vijayr
Am I the only one who saw the URL and didn't bother to read the article?

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joeblack69
I use "Flock" to handle all of my Gmail and social networking needs.as well as
for a host of other net trolling and data mining tasks...can get a bit
cluttered though So why do I want to learn all the new BUZZ particulars ..imho
google's a day late and a buck short.... who am I kidding I'll try it when I
get bored w/ FLOCK...

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wrinklz
I hate FaceBook. It's like living in a college dorm. Without the intellectual
bits.

