
The Bitcoin and the Taxi driver - Ryan_Shmotkin
http://blog.itlater.com/the-bitcoin-and-the-taxi-driver/
======
relix
I noticed Bitcoin's most fervent supporters are far removed from reality. They
think the regular person in the street cares that "the man" can track his
purchases in the supermarket, or the beer he bought in a bar. They don't want
to pay taxes. They think Cypriotic people will surely flock from shaky banks
to an even more shakier currency and put all their live savings in Bitcoin,
because it'll be safe.

It's so hard to actually get bitcoins, that any "1 percent" discounts you get
for paying with bitcoin in regular shops or sites just isn't worth it to me.
Either enter your CC# and be done in 10 seconds, or go to mtgox and wait 2
weeks until you're verified (hyperboled, but the point stands). I'm assuming
less techy people will be of the same mind on this.

The reason any non techy person would get bitcoins is as an investment, that's
it. They don't care about any of the advantages of bitcoin because cash works
just fine for them, and has most of the practical advantages anyway. If
they're using it as an investment, they sure as hell won't use it to buy
things.

~~~
Hermel
> It's so hard to actually get bitcoins

This is something that can change. The question is, would it be enough to make
people use Bitcoin?

Also, if it is "only" used as an investment, that would still be a huge
success.

~~~
Murkin
How can it being used only as an investemt be a huge success ?

Lets just redo the Tulip mania (<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania>)

~~~
Hermel
In uncertain times, there is big demand for storing value. Whereas tulips are
a horrid store of value (they rot, anyone can grow them, are not divisible,
etc), bitcoins are an excellent store of value. It is divisible, transferrable
and easy to hide. Very similar properties have made gold a huge success as an
investment vehicle. There are other goods similar to gold. For example, there
are 20 billion CHF worth of 1000-CHF bills in circulation, most of them
outside Switzerland. They are not used for purchases - they are used to
preserve wealth. If bitcoin becomes one of those assets used to preserve
wealth, its price can easily jump to 1'000 EUR per coin, giving it a similar
capitalization as Swiss 1000 CHF bills.

------
temphn
Is the taxi driver on Facebook, using Google, or tapping on an iPhone? Is he
using Uber to drive passengers to their AirBnB from the airport they just flew
into after booking a trip on Hipmunk? If the taxi driver is aware of it, it
must be a bubble.

Over the last five years the people shorting governments/mortgages/banks,
buying into gold/tech, and predicting a coming total collapse have in general
made an ungodly amount of money.

Is Bitcoin's rise assured? No. But if it was then there would be no gain, no
upside. There is a certain kind of person, all too common in our managed and
enervated society, who does not know how to take calculated risks. Everything
must be structured and approved by the New York Times, Harvard, and the
Federal Government before it's safe to do. This same person often says that
startup founders who make fortunes were "lucky", and will say the same thing
about early Bitcoin adopters in a few years if it succeeds.

But what he never realizes is that you can't be lucky if you don't take risks.

------
jaggederest
Never underestimate the power of illicit substances and activities to power
adoption.

Right now I suspect the bulk of the current spike in bitcoin prices is related
to currency controls or the fear thereof now that Cyprus is going down the
drain.

~~~
relix
That doesn't make sense. If the only reason is to get away from the Euro, why
buy bitcoins, a very volatile, cutting-edge currency, when you can just as
easily (or more easily actually) buy any other currency such as dollars, or
swiss francs, and your savings will actually be safe, as opposed to bitcoin
that could lose 20% of its value overnight.

~~~
Hermel
Moving from EUR to USD or to CHF does not make much of a difference. Western
national banks don't allow for much fluctuation and if one of them starts
printing, the others follow. Bitcoin is a currency that does not correlate
with them, so from a diversification point of view, Bitcoin is the better
choice for you than buying USD.

~~~
Ryan_Shmotkin
You can put money into realestate, gold, gov-bonds and hundred other places
that don't have 3x monthly fluctuation.

And people in cyprus are not trying to protect their spare change, its their
whole savings. Would you put your life savings in bitcoin ?

------
codesuela
People keep predicting that but then it might go down after a large dump of
Bitcoins and rises to new heights. Don't know what to say, this article has no
substance at all. It is based on a possibly made up anecdote. I guess Bitcoin
is just one of those things that divides the tech community. Crazy idealistic
cyberpunks and BTC skeptics.

Disclaimer: I am a believer

------
dia80
Taxi drivers, grandmas etc; necessary but not sufficient for a bubble.

There are sustained run ups in assets values that can seem crazy but don't
reverse. Consider the bane of my life, london house prices.

If bitcoin catches on as a means of exchange, e.g. cash in and out of Iran as
is happening to some extent, 1 Billion market cap will seem small.

------
philhippus
The fact is BTC is a _currency_ and is _currently_ operating as such. There
will be price corrections of course but it is already established and its
primary trend is up.

As a currency trader of ten years I see this energy-backed means of exchange
reaching astronomical levels if the network does not suffer any major
catastrophe.

What looks like a bubble here may well be an attempt to establish a base. $100
seems like a reasonable psychological base level after it is broken. From
there, with greater adoption and acceptance, $1000 is targetable.

------
Ryan_Shmotkin
Anyone knows if there is a way to "short" bitcoins ?

~~~
wcoenen
You can do this on <http://bitfinex.com>.

But be careful about how much you trust any bitcoin service. Bitcoinica,
another margin trading platform, was wildly popular but existed for only 6
months; they had to shut down after several hacks and people lost funds.

Also, the main way to get non-bitcoin funds into these kinds of services is
via mtgox redeemable codes, but those won't be available anymore after the
10th of April because of legal concerns.

