
Is Betelgeuse, one of the sky’s brightest stars, on the brink of a supernova? - pseudolus
https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2019/12/27/is-betelgeuse-one-skys-brightest-stars-brink-supernova/
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ncmncm
Short answer: yes!

But in astronomical terms, that means "probably within 100,000 years". Maybe
10,000!

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perl4ever
People say there's an uncertainty of 10,000 years as though unlikely things
don't happen. 1 in 10,000 is very possible!

I don't know anyone who's won millions in the lottery, but people win a few
hundred all the time at the place where I buy my morning coffee.

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ncmncm
I win a dollar every single day I don't play, and you can too!

There are not many almost-ready supernovas within easy shouting distance, so
the overwhelmingly most likely event is to die of old age waiting. That is
less dramatic than being incinerated, but we have an alternative means for
that, too, also much more likely.

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perl4ever
I don't buy lottery tickets for myself, but I do participate in the office
pool. When you think of it as insurance against being left out, it suddenly
seems much more plausible than winning on your own, to a pessimist.

