

Amazon Kindle growth curve similar to iPods' - olefoo
http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/05/14/amazon-may-sell-750-million-in-kindles-by-2010-thats-a-lot-of-kindles/

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pg
This analyst doesn't seem to understand the concept of early adopters. Based
on the slimmest evidence, he concludes Amazon has sold 30,000 of the things.
Even so, that implies nothing about the future sales. We're still solidly in
the territory of people who'd buy one out of curiosity.

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mattmaroon
Wasn't the iPod Mac only back then? And wasn't Apple at it's lowest market
share ever? When they made the iPod work with Windows, they broadened their
market something like 20x. Kindle is already aimed at everyone.

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demallien
I wouldn't worry too much about it. The title here on HN is misleading. The
analyst isn't saying that the Kindle has the same adoption curve, but rather
that IF it does turn out to have the same adoption curve, it'll be a big hit.
Nahhhhh, really?

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olefoo
The interesting thing is why Kindle is selling so well, and why exposure to an
actual unit seems to convert people far more quickly than one would expect
from similar units (the sony version though slicker looking is not doing
nearly as well).

My take is that, as with the iPod it's the service element that makes the
device (any book you want, any time you want, any where you want) so
compelling.

And I've seen a fair amount of anecdotal evidence of non-geeks confiscating
Kindle's from early adopters; which coupled with the Kindles decidedly unsexy
design suggests that there is a much deeper pent up demand for what the kindle
has to offer than there was for the ipod.

It's a big wave forming up and it's ripe for riding; what could be built to
supply the Kindle Ecosystem?

