
Tesla's Asymmetric War Against the Auto Industry - te
http://www.thedrive.com/new-cars/13058/the-model-3-is-further-proof-of-teslas-asymmetric-war-against-the-auto-industry
======
Lramseyer
While I think that what Tesla is doing is very exciting, I think the
statements in this piece are way overblown. A war? How about healthy free
market competition. I too am happy that Tesla has a very different take on the
way we buy and use our cars, and ultimately think the customer will be better
off as a result. But I remain unconvinced that Tesla will somehow dominate the
auto industry while the incumbent brands will just sit around and cry
themselves to irrelevance.

Tesla is pretty much the first successful electric car brand in modern times,
and there were many others that have failed. While they are here to stay, they
aren't out of the woods yet. The Model 3 is pretty basic, and is selling for
$35K at minimum. They didn't even put a speedometer on the driver side
dashboard, it's just a touch screen in the middle that displays/controls
pretty much everything. It's not bad by any means, but it's a far cry from the
perfect affordable every man's car.

Meanwhile, Ford, GM, and VW also have very good self driving car systems in
the pipeline. Pretty much every major car manufacturer is working on EV
technology, and to claim the Chevy Bolt as a failure this year also does not
somehow curse General Motors to some sort of permanent failure of an electric
car manufacturer.

~~~
Someone1234
Absolutely.

I'd argue Toyota's Prius Prime is a direct response to Tesla. They too have
gone large 11.6" center touch screen, it has a HUD, it has a much higher speed
in EV mode, better acceleration, it is a plug-in hybrid, and has a bunch of
other high tech improvements.

So the car industry is definitely taking notice.

~~~
vvanders
Does it do OTAs, can you buy it outside of the dealer?

That's just matching feature-for-feature which is exactly what the article is
arguing existing players are doing and won't keep up with Tesla.

~~~
Spivak
> Does it do OTAs

It's a car. Nobody updates them. Certainly nobody drives to the dealership to
get updates. Nobody outside of tech circles even know what that means.

> Can you buy it outside of the dealer?

So Tesla is going to win because they can do something their competition is
legally prohibited from doing? If it actually started to hurt existing
automakers you would see those regulations disappear faster than you can say,
'protecting the American auto industry'.

~~~
xenadu02
> It's a car. Nobody updates them.

Exactly. You don't think people will get jealous when their friends and
neighbors rave about how their Tesla just got this great new feature that
installed itself overnight for free?

This is exactly what the author was talking about: automakers are still
fighting the last war and trying to match feature bullet points. Tesla has
changed the game.

> If it actually started to hurt existing automakers

Automakers are already aware of how much everyone _hates_ buying a car because
of the Stealership Experience (TM). This is just another way Tesla has changed
the game and for structural reasons their competitors won't be able to catch
up.

It has many parallels to cell phones and Apple with the iPhone: for years the
old giants (Nokia, RIM, Sony-Ericsson) floundered without a competitive
response. There were deep structural problems in the way the manufacturer-
carrier relationship was setup that prevented them from responding. They also
lacked the ability and will to develop a platform ecosystem - a feat only a
few companies have ever really accomplished and almost all of them are on the
US West Coast.

There is another parallel: for the first few years their profits and stock
kept rising. In 2008 RIM had no idea they were about to be evicerated - they
posted record profits! Ask them how well things turned out here in 2017.

~~~
taheca
I still rave to people about the Software update that increased the breaking
efficiency on my Model S by 25%. It was a noticeable difference in the way the
car slowed itself down, and was just amazing!

~~~
vvanders
Yup, there was also a software update in the first 4 months of the non-P dual
motor cars that shaved a full second from the 0-60(5.4s -> 4.2s) once they
found out from real world testing that they had underrated them.

That type of stuff is why you'll see Tesla succeed.

------
dvcc
Sure Tesla is in a 'war' against the existing auto-industry but I wouldn't say
it is one that they won yet. From a canceled-reservation holder, I'm not quite
sure if they will.

They did a pseudo-release to employees only, as the article mentioned, that
never even gave the final specs out to customers with existing orders. Not a
single order has been delivered to a real customer nor have they even accepted
orders yet. Sure reservations can continue to climb but we're still waiting
around for an actual delivered car. If you are adding more orders in a week
than you expect to produce in a week at the end of next year, those
reservations are pointless.

Reading through Tesla forums, you'll quickly find out that Tesla has a service
problem. A lack of centers, parts and awfully slow turnaround times. It
doesn't appear that they really figured this one out yet. Sure they may be
doubling stores, but they will be more than doubling cars in that same period.
How will they manage all their new cars, with new customers who aren't as
welcoming as the early S/X owners?

I feel like I just sound like one of the doubters mentioned in the article
now, just slightly longer term. Oh well, I guess we'll see if Tesla can
actually manage it soon.

~~~
mikeash
People keep saying these first 30 aren't "real customers." They paid full
price for the car just like anyone else would. Employees got first dibs
because Tesla put them at the front of the line as a way to thank them.
Compare with the Model X launch, where they delivered a mere six cars, all to
prominent executives or investors.

Service is definitely a big problem they need to solve. Appointments for non-
urgent issues are several weeks out at my local service center. I'm hopeful
that they'll solve it, but it's going to take a lot of work. Drowning because
you're inundated with customers is sort of a good problem to have, but it's
still a problem.

~~~
aerovistae
> Not a single order has been delivered to a real customer nor have they even
> accepted orders yet.

And even _if_ the first 30 truly weren't real customers, whatever that means,
what is the point of that assertion from the OP? Is that supposed to imply
that no Model 3's will _ever_ be delivered? Musk said they're starting the
ramp now. Does OP think he's just straight-up lying? What does the fact that
deliveries are just starting have to do with _anything_ at all? They're
exactly on schedule.

~~~
dvcc
That was not the point of that at all, I just doubt that will be able to meet
their expected output and deliver a car that isn't plagued with issues
(employees can't/won't complain but your standard customer would).

~~~
aerovistae
It won't be plagued with issues.

How do I know this? Because Musk has too perfect of a record on taking care of
_every important detail_ in his projects. He didn't develop the world's most
advanced space program, in a decade, from scratch, by accident.

He didn't create a car company and scale it to 100k cars annually, all to the
tune of spectacular reviews and overwhelmingly positive customer reception, in
a decade, from scratch, by accident.

And I really think people undervalue the fact that he did these two things
simultaneously, as though it were an unimportant detail. It's perhaps the
_most_ important detail. It drives home the sheer quantity of problems he can
take on all at once without dropping any balls.

He's not about to forget about reliability for the Model 3, or fuck it up, and
throw all his efforts to waste. The idea of it just doesn't make any god damn
sense when held up against his record. It's total nonsense and I just don't
buy it.

~~~
mikeash
Model X was plagued with issues for about the first year. Especially those
crazy doors. So it's not a given.

At the same time, I think what happened with the X is actually promising for
the 3. Musk has said that they went overboard with the X, and it was a lesson
learned for the future.

------
heygrady
Tesla's big advantage is that most other car makers have publicly ridiculed
electric cars [1] and heavily promoted the roar of gasoline engines [2].
Electric car sales are widely expected overtake gasoline cars in the next 30
years [3]. Recently, car makers have had to eat their words in the wake of
dieselgate [4]. Old school car makers will have to retrain their audience to
embrace electric cars [5]. Meanwhile, Tesla benefits from being an early
adopter.

[1] [http://www.reuters.com/article/chrsyelr-ceo-evs-
idUSL1N0O71M...](http://www.reuters.com/article/chrsyelr-ceo-evs-
idUSL1N0O71MS20140521)

[2] [https://www.ispot.tv/ad/AWs5/2016-dodge-charger-when-it-
rain...](https://www.ispot.tv/ad/AWs5/2016-dodge-charger-when-it-rains-
october-cash-allowance)

[3] [http://futurefuelstrategies.com/2017/07/20/ev-sales-
projecti...](http://futurefuelstrategies.com/2017/07/20/ev-sales-projections-
trending-upward/)

[4] [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/17/volkswagen-
be...](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/17/volkswagen-bets-on-
electric-cars-after-dieselgate-scandal/)

[5] [https://electrek.co/2017/06/26/porsche-electric-vehicles-
mis...](https://electrek.co/2017/06/26/porsche-electric-vehicles-mission-e/)

~~~
pavement
Also, don't forget, regarding that thing about the "roar" of gasoline engines,
that some car makers have opted to fake the sound of the engine's noise with
audio systems. [0]

[0] [https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/americas-
bes...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/americas-best-selling-
cars-and-trucks-are-built-on-lies-the-rise-of-fake-engine-
noise/2015/01/21/6db09a10-a0ba-11e4-b146-577832eafcb4_story.html)

~~~
toomanybeersies
People and car manufacturers have been doing this forever, by playing with the
exhaust.

Wanna make your shitty Honda Civic sound fast? Just put a big bore exhaust on
it.

It's just that they've decided to be considerate (and probably cheaper) and
use speakers in the car.

~~~
pavement
Yeah, it's a trade between experience and authenticity. If you value the
experience for its own novelty and stimulation, the fakery isn't a problem.
Those who seek authenticity derive pleasure from a completely different source
and rationale.

------
ChuckMcM
[In full disclosure mode I've made money buying out of the money calls on
Tesla stock, so everytime he "succeeds against all odds" I get a few pennies.]

That said, the fundamental message is a good one, which is "Don't look at what
a mature market does, look at what it could be." My first experience with this
was the iPhone introduction by Apple. Like others, I scoffed at the "Jesus
phone" where Apple PR claimed to have invented phones. And I thought, really
just a glittery phone that you can run some games on or listen to your music?

What I _completely_ missed was that Steve Jobs didn't see it as a _phone_ so
much as an entirely new nexus of interaction in our lives. Where before that
might have been the television set, this was changing the rules at a very
fundamental level about how people would think about a phone going forward. I
could not see that at the time. Looking back I can see it, but at the time I
could not.

When the first Tesla Roadsters started showing up at Google[1] I started
looking at what Elon was trying to achieve and I got the same feeling of
"really? this is just a car with batteries and a Lotus body, sort of the rich
person's version of the Bradley GT[2]" But as I looked at what he was trying
to achieve I recognized that he, like Steve Jobs, was thinking about cars in a
way that wasn't even in the same ballpark as I was.

Knowing that, and knowing people who don't understand things bet against them,
made it pretty straight forward to arbitrage that disconnect into money.

[1] I have a photo of four parked in a row in the Google colors and tagged,
"yes you are working among the crazy wealthy types."

[2]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_Automotive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_Automotive)

~~~
nostrebored
Steve Jobs' was not completely dependent on both a redistribution of money
from competitors (to fund luxury cars, it's honestly ethically repulsive) to
his company, local and federal subsidies. He also was 1500 times less
dependent per unit on slave labor to exfiltrate cobalt in the Congo. The US
already has legislation around buying minerals from the Congo, but Cobalt is a
specific exemption, and one that is entirely necessary for the entire electric
car industry to function.

Were we to decide tomorrow that we did not want 7 year olds to be forced to
mine, Tesla as a company would disappear!

Tesla as a company does not exist without government intervention or
exploitation.

~~~
chillacy
You could have also picked on the iPhone for their (especially in the early
days) terrible labor conditions for assemblers in Foxconn too. There are
plenty of rare earth minerals that go into the supply chain there as well.

The US gov definitely plays favorites anyways (including with existing
automakers) so if you're going to do business, you might as well try to build
political favor for your industry as a cost of doing business.

~~~
nostrebored
Rare Earth minerals have significantly more regulation. They used to not, but
now Cobalt is the exception.

Labor conditions in the war torn Congo in which literal slaves mine Cobalt is
a little different than adults working in awful conditions.

------
rm_-rf_slash
Although this article has a bit too much cheerleading for me to consider it an
objective analysis, the emphasis on PR reminds me that Tesla currently has the
best PR game in the auto industry since Henry Ford raised his workers' pay to
$5 an hour.

Surely this thread will come to possess the very army of Tesla fans that the
writer talks about, which will serve his very point: when was the last time
any car company got the public at large to be downright _elated_ about their
product?

~~~
IncRnd
> Tesla currently has the best PR game in the auto industry since Henry Ford
> raised his workers' pay to $5 an hour.

$5 per day not hour :)

------
ekianjo
> Ready for the last war, France lost in Indochina in 1954, and was brought to
> a standstill in Algeria in 1962.

Terrible historical references. France did not lose in Algeria, it was winning
militarily with no contest at all, but lost the political side and mindshare
in the international community. Nothing to do with the situation in Indochina
at all.

~~~
nradov
In war there is no difference between the military and political sides. It's
all the same thing.

------
devnonymous
As much as I love Musk for bringing the sorely needed disruption to market, I
personally believe this article is a fan piece that is underestimating what
the big companies are capable of. I (of course, that's anecdotal) am aware
that the big German companies are working with governments in the EU to bring
around large scale infrastructure changes (think traffic lights, signs and
roads themselves) to usher _their_ idea of what automotive future would look
like.

In the end, IMHO, there isn't going to be a winner- (according to the articles
hope - tesla) -take-all. It's going to be a middle ground.

You're not going to get your openmoko/n900. You're going to get your Android.

------
brightball
Easy to cite the Chevy Bolt as a failure. The Volt, on the other hand, is
fantastic.

~~~
praveenster
Yes, the Volt is really fantastic. I bought it December 2016 and haven't
filled gas since then. I have about 5500 miles on it so far. I drive about 25
miles each way to/from work and couple of stretches are downhill on the way to
work and hence the battery drain is minimal, usually 50% at the end of the
day. The drive is very smooth and there is hardly any road noise. The buying
(or rather leasing) experience with the GM dealer was also really smooth and
impressive, unlike working with other high pressure dealer sales staff.

~~~
DenisM
Gasoline doesn't store well over a length of time, you might want to look into
that before it clogs up your engine.

~~~
brightball
The engine will actually crank up and run for that exact reason if it sits for
a while.

~~~
mikeash
And it has a sealed gas tank to keep the volatiles from evaporating away.

------
vgchh
War or not, the reality is that Tesla is executing passionately and furiously.
As if they are possessed by the the idea that EVs are the ONLY future of
transportation. And they are putting their money where there mouth is -
Gigafactory, Supercharger Network and S3XY. Not to mention the cross-
pollination from SpaceX. Other car manufacturers are still bystanders with
mostly hobby projects.

~~~
adventured
Not to mention Tesla is being powered forward by its genius, aggressive,
forward-thinking founder (insert inevitable straw debate about whether Musk is
actually a founder).

The other car makers are led by elder statesperson types. They're all slow
moving, they've come up through the old car industry, and they have no vision
for the future that looks different from the past. Tesla is the only major car
company on earth with its founder at the helm.

------
ajmarsh
Business ≠ War. That said I think Tesla's strategy is a good one.

------
mikestew
IMO, this isn’t a person who should be writing anything about electric cars. I
clicked this link ([http://www.thedrive.com/opinion/1944/the-chevy-bolt-will-
fai...](http://www.thedrive.com/opinion/1944/the-chevy-bolt-will-fail)) that
was in the article. Anyone that owns an electric car should find the
objections laughable. In summary, it’s every objection you’d hear from the
person that wants to rationalize driving their Suburban by themselves to work
every day. So I’d take the “rah, rah, Tesla” with a grain of salt, as the
author is speaking from what they’ve read and heard about, not from their
ownership of an EV.

~~~
woodandsteel
But his prediction was right, the Bolt is failing. Sales are way below
anything that would really count.

------
RestlessMind
If this is true (and a big if), it is a great opportunity for Google /
Alphabet:

\- Offer "self-driving OS" for cars, via Waymo

\- Introduce "open-battery" standards for various manufacturers. Then also
offer supercharger stations for batteries confirming to those standards. Other
players can join the pool of superchargers by adhering to the same standard.

Basically, offer "Android for cars" to counter "iPhone of cars" (which is
Tesla).

------
mavhc
If they can get the robot company they bought working fast enough (Elon says
they'll make the production line 20 times faster), they win, as they don't
have 19 pointless factories to lose money on compared to the other car
companies.

------
heyitskevin
If you're interested in autonomous driving the author here Alex Roy is on the
Autonocast podcast:

[http://www.autonocast.com/](http://www.autonocast.com/)

------
sgt101
If they run out of cash they are bust. I wonder how much the big car companies
will pay for them if they get close to the edge?

~~~
beambot
Yes, that is how most businesses work: no cash => bankrupt. Though it seems
that automotive companies don't have that problem... Something about
government loans?

------
am1988
> That’s why public relations and communications — propaganda by another time

you mean like getting sycophants from thedrive.com to write articles that far
longer than I'm willing to read to get to the point.

I am so sick of the cult of Elon.

~~~
lawrenceyan
Why not use your main account to post this? You take credibility away from
yourself by posting from an alt.

~~~
am1988
I am using this account now.

Lets be realistic, negative feelings about Musk aren't going to gain me much
credibility on HN no matter where I post it from.

