
If Your Argument Is Based on Economics, You’ve Already Lost - davnn
https://hbr.org/2016/06/if-your-argument-is-based-on-economics-youve-already-lost
======
demonshalo
I really do believe that the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

I think the leftists for the past 60 years have acted with good intentions;
they think that they have been doing the right thing(s). However, they seem to
do the same thing time and time again. Namely that they pretend to know all
the variables regardless of context and argue that they are able to account
for all variance via central planning. That is what Hayek called "pretense of
knowledge". Nassim Taleb's Black Swan talks about that in depth. The failure
to account for the "emotional" variable is what this article is about!

In fact, that is the reason Econ is not a science. It is basically impossible
to create rigid future-predicting economic models. Physics can do that because
you can isolate and probe, while econ is far more complex of a structure where
isolation of a variable is basically impossible. Even if you managed to do
that it wouldn't matter because variables in aggregate tend to give rise to
emergent properties.

I think of economics as an NP-complete problem (perhaps even EXP). It might be
possible to create statistical models that are "good enough" in most cases.
But they are not deterministic or efficient. Therefor, I don't believe that
centralized planning will ever work on these large scales.

~~~
B1FF_PSUVM
> I think the leftists for the past 60 years have acted with good intentions;

If you look back a few more centuries, and check out what the brothers
Gracchi, Gaius Marius and Julius Caesar were up to, you'll start to notice
that money-less aristocrats have a knack of rallying the poor to their banner,
so they can take the state from the moneyed aristocrats.

That has happened a few more times, and rarely the poor have really profited
from it. It's a tough game.

~~~
demonshalo
Politics is about who gets when, where and how. That's all there is to it.
Politics is about slicing the pie, not enlarging it.

------
vlehto
I've wondered for some time this weird logic of accusing someone from
"populism".

It's two things in one package: 1. Admitting that your opponent is better at
rhetoric. 2. Accusing his voters for stupidity.

Neither of these is helping you to win those voters back. It's in-group feel-
good bullshit. As if you didn't want to get elected in the first place. Now
shut up and learn from your enemy. Or alternatively call out their lies if
they really lied.

------
danielscrubs
"This road was sponsored by the EU" was a sign I saw in Sardinia Italy. As
someone from the north of Europe this infuriated me. It's like Ukraine should
give money to Russian roads. Doesn't make sense as we see them as a badly run
superpower whilst a small efficient country would loose its money AND its
voice.

Give us the EU we want: free trade, safety and easier migration. Don't become
anything else.

Now the leftist in EU want to use tax dollars to make commercials about the
benefits instead: indoctrination in it's finest.

Time for self reflection EU.

~~~
xchaotic
How did you end up there? Did you go on holiday? And it infuriated you that
you were able to enjoy the beautiful scenery on that road, whilst enjoying the
holiday?

~~~
danielscrubs
Yes. The thing is that there was a gravel road before that the Italian
government thought didn't need an upgrading, but suddenly there was free money
to be had from EU, of course they applied as they should.

Maybe I'm just angry that my small country has weak politicians.

