
Dropbox inventor determined to build the next Apple or Google - benjlang
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-dropbox-20120115,0,6720306,full.story
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notatoad
I don't see much long-term growth for Dropbox in its current state. Right now,
they're a stopgap feature. They've been successful so far because they fill a
niche, but the niche that they fill is temporary. Old computing is having your
files on your computer and accessing them with local applications. New
computing is having your files in the cloud and accessing them from
applications in the cloud. In a fully cloud-hosted architecture, there is no
need for dropbox. Dropbox is a halfway point in getting us into the cloud, and
as more and more apps move into the cloud they will become more and more
unnecessary.

~~~
ImprovedSilence
I disagree, I see dropbox files as MY FILES. I don't like when they are
obscured behind some application. I don't see those as MY FILES, I like to see
my files in my folders and it's nice and I have a sense of ownership. Dropbox
is just an extension of my own personal home filesystem. But it's EVERYWHERE.
And that my friends, is what makes all the difference. Like Drew said, he
wants a filesystem for the internet. I think this is lost on lots of "the
cloud" proponents, who are focused just on applications.

~~~
pooriaazimi

       I see dropbox files as MY FILES. I don't like when
       they are obscured behind some application
    

The important thing is that it's YOU (and me), not the average computer user.
Apple and Google are successful because they fill average users' needs with
simple, intuitive and easy to use products; not by presenting them with an
scary concept like 'file system'.

I hate it when I'm on my iPad and have to do all sorts of stupid tricks to
move files between applications. It's just stupid. But I'm sure Apple will fix
most of the nightmare in iOS 6. But I must side with Steve Jobs when he said
"When you try and teach someone to use a Mac, everything is fine, until you
show them the file system." Average computer users have _extremely_ cluttered
and unorganized folders and desktops. Dropbox does not help that.

I think Apple's strategy will work better for them (in the long term) than
that of Dropbox's... “A lot of us have been working for 10 years to get rid of
the file system so the user doesn't have to learn about it.” (Jobs, WWDC 2011)

And this is my favorite quote about Dropbox:

    
    
       "Dropbox... It's a feature, not a company"! (Steve Jobs)

~~~
nkassis
"scary concept like 'file system'." I find that somewhat ironic considering it
was meant to be intuitive and relate to the real world concept of
Document,Files and Folders. But when the real world connection begins to be
broken I can see how it becomes scary.

~~~
querulous
The problem is that in the real world managing documents, files and folders is
a full time job for some people.

If documents, files and folders were intuitive and efficient, you wouldn't
have relatively huge administrative staffs at medical clinics, real estate
offices, banks, law offices, government institutions, schools, et cetera.

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mvkel
While Dropbox is a great service (I can't imagine life without it!), it's a
bit delusional to think it could be the next Google or Apple. As Steve Jobs
himself said about Dropbox, it's a feature, not a company.

~~~
ImprovedSilence
Technically, search is a feature too. Google seems to be doing alright. I
think that was just Steve being steve, and saying whatever would scare the
piss outta Dropbox to get them to sell. If it's such a bad Idea, why did jobs
want to buy it?

~~~
adgar
> Technically, search is a feature too. Google seems to be doing alright.

That's because they were able to monetize search enormously through ads. How
precisely does Dropbox plan to monetize storage to the same extent?

> If it's such a bad Idea, why did jobs want to buy it?

Strawman. Nobody is saying Dropbox is a _bad idea_. They are saying it is
likely not an idea capable of being an "Apple or Google." Edit: also, a Hacker
News reader should be well aware of talent acquisitions.

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buu700
"Drew Houston, 28, chief executive and co-founder of Dropbox, last fall
pocketed $250 million from seven of Silicon Valley's top venture capital
firms."

Well, that's quite the accusation.

~~~
dwynings
That's likely worded incorrectly – Dropbox's latest round was that amount but
it's unimaginable that Drew took all that money off the table.

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krigath
"Dropbox engineers even hacked their way into Apple's file system to make the
Dropbox icon appear on users' menu bars, a bold feat that blew away Apple's
cloud team and caught the attention of none other than Jobs."

I have never made an application which does it, but I know of plenty that do
(e.g. Evernote). Is it really that difficult?

~~~
eurleif
No. Not at all. And it has nothing to do with "hacking Apple's file system".
There's an API for it.

~~~
shaggyfrog
Is the API available for all versions of OS X? If not, when the API first
appear?

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feralchimp
My problem with Dropbox's prospects to become a multi-billion dollar
enterprise, in a nutshell:

I use Dropbox on multiple Macs and across multiple iOS devices, for a not-
insignificant variety of use cases. I have never paid Dropbox a dollar.

~~~
azakai
> My problem with Dropbox's prospects to become a multi-billion dollar
> enterprise, in a nutshell:

> I use Dropbox on multiple Macs and across multiple iOS devices, for a not-
> insignificant variety of use cases. I have never paid Dropbox a dollar.

Have you ever paid Google a dollar?

~~~
adgar
> Have you ever paid Google a dollar?

Are you suggesting that Dropbox is going to hit multi-billions through
advertising? To successfully complete your analogy, you need to fill in the
gap between "hosting files for free for most of their customers" and multiple
billions of dollars.

~~~
azakai
I am not suggesting exactly that, no. But it is possible to make large amounts
of money without being paid by the people using your service, if there is a
ridiculously large amount of those people. Google is the best example, that
part is true.

To be more concrete, there are at least two possible ways for something like
Dropbox to make money without users paying Dropbox directly:

* Data mine the files hosted for users. Even anonymized data like this can be very valuable for third parties. Edit: or for other separate services inside your own company.

* Ads that become an integral part of the Dropbox service, preferably targeted using data mining from the previous point.

Are these good ideas? I don't know.

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jinushaun
Dropbox needs to pull an "Amazon" and pivot like they did with AWS, and Apple
did with the iPod. Storage is not going to take them there. Growth is limited
and someone can easily come along and replace them. They need a secondary
source of income.

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joeybaker
The way the Dropbox execs have been talking themselves up in the press over
the last few months just makes me think that they're angling to raise the
price on an acquisition.

Dropbox is a great product, but feature development has stagnated, and the
only two expansion options I see are:

* compete with Amazon in a much more user-centric way. * compete with Apple iCloud in a much more open way.

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samstave
I'm late to the thread, but I'd like to share how I use dropbox and share some
of my issues.

I have been a long time user, and recently I joined a company which is 100%
virtual. We are all consultants who work from our homes - but travel regularly
to client sites.

While we are working from our homes - we collaborate and work on the docs
needed for our client visits.

Everyone has their own account, and quickly a couple gigs would fill up, due
to what i feel is poor logic on dropbox's part, and it is getting to be a
bigger and bigger issue.

The issue is that we have ~10 people all sharing project folders. But with the
free account, this means we get a lot of duplicated consumption.

If 3 people have 2GB space, and they each share .5GB with eachother, then that
.5GB is taking up .5GB from everyones account.

This sucks.

Personally, I have a paid 50GB account, and I created a shared public folder.
Everyone on my team joined the public folder - which is always 50GB to ME -
but to them it consumes THEIR space - and soon their syncing stops because the
folder I made is larger than their box.

This is retarded, I think that if they visit MY folder, this should not count
against THEIR storage - especially when I am paying for it.

I do undestand the complexities of this - but then the problem is that the
cost to fix this issue is that everyone needs to upgrade their account.

I have looked at the team offering, but then that is too expensive.

I think what is best - is to have one corporate DB account, and have everyone
login with that userID - and pay for the upgraded space for that one account.

With this said, based on the current design of dropbox and the fact that it is
simply a feature - there is no way this company will be the next Apple, let
alone google. Unless Drew is referring to emulating their culture, or maybe
brand recognition. certainly he cant be talking about product diversity....

Anyway - I love dropbox, and am happy to pay for it, but as it currently
stands, is a half-feature.

I dont even know what kind of use-case model for teams such as mine they are
looking at. Perhaps I should send them an email.

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nhangen
Was a huge fan of Dropbox until I went out on a limb to convince my boss to
move from internal servers to a team account.

The customer service was not just bad, but noticeably absent, and the product
is overpriced and relatively shallow at an enterprise level.

Still pay for a personal 50gb account, but canceled the team account...well we
will as soon as they actually return my call.

~~~
d-roo
> The customer service was not just bad, but noticeably absent...

I couldn't agree more -- I also pay for a 50 gig plan. About a week ago, I had
to rebuild one of my machines and somehow my new Dropbox folder (which of
course was empty) synced out to the cloud and to the rest of my machines.
Suddenly my backup consolidation was completely wiped out. I submitted a
support ticket and even now, nearly a week later, it is still unassigned. So,
I spent a day undeleting 3500+ files through their web interface. Although
quite limited, I will say I was thankful that functionality was there.

After being so impressed with Dropbox, their lack of customer support has been
a huge disappointment.

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int3rnaut
I know it would be relatively small but can anyone wager a guess as to how
much each of the 2gb freemium packages costs Dropbox? At 50 million users it
has to add up--I've always wondered about Dropbox's conversion rate (free to
pay) but it must be relatively high to support the current monetary system.

~~~
adgar
Keep in mind that they use S3, so they pay for what they use, not what they
have committed to their free users. But if they were, then for 50 million free
users:

2gb * 50,000,000 = 100PB. That would qualify them for S3's over 5PB pricing of
$0.055 per GB-month. So that's $66 million per year just for storage.

But again... they're probably actually using far, far less than 100PB on their
free customers.

<http://aws.amazon.com/s3/pricing/>

~~~
fduran
Dropbox also uses deduplication thus reducing those figures

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marcamillion
>He'd strap on headphones to block out everything but the endorphin rush as he
cranked code late into the night on a new service that instantly syncs all of
your files on all of your devices.

 _sigh_ Thought we were done with the hacker cliches?

------
andrewhillman
I can see dropbox turning into a service that stores and connects you to your
whole "environment" so you can access it from any device.

~~~
naner
I remember reading an article a few years ago by (I think) a novelist who
envisioned that in the future we'd store our entire computing system online
and just switch between devices, always having access to our environment and
files. Whether you're on a smart phone, your home computer, or at a terminal
in the library, etc.

I don't believe dropbox is going to do that, but it is an interesting idea.

~~~
moocow01
Isn't that what a web application is? Or I suppose taken to even more of an
extreme what OnLive is?

~~~
naner
No. Everything is synced (apps, settings) and there is still native-run code.

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benjlang
I don't really see Dropbox becoming anywhere near as big as Apple or Google.
Already a $4B valuation seems like an exaggeration to me.

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fourstar
He does realize he essentially already won the startup lottery at a relatively
young age, right? Good luck...

~~~
feralchimp
Exactly. "I refused to sell to you" != "I am positioned to eat you or become
you."

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JesseAldridge
> "I'm a Windows guy anyway," Houston said with a smile.

Really? Drew runs Windows?

~~~
astrodust
Guess he's building the next Google which is the next Microsoft anyway.

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ryandvm
Yeah, me too.

