
To Swedes, it's the rest of the world engaging in a reckless experiment - notlukesky
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120805778/coronavirus-to-swedes-its-the-rest-of-the-world-engaging-in-a-reckless-experiment/
======
jpab
From my perspective here in the UK, where the health secretary is making
threats to ban all outdoor exercise [1] because some people aren't following
the social distancing rules, the Swedish approach sounds far better. At least
in Sweden the citizens are being treated as adults, given the data and allowed
to use some personal judgement.

Note that I haven't seen any claim from the UK government that the existing
rules aren't sufficient as long as they're being followed - a claim which I
might find hard to believe but at least would be consistent with threatening a
broader ban on outdoor activity. The quote from Matt Hancock is: "If you don't
want us to have to take the step to ban exercise of all forms outside of your
own home, then you've got to follow the rules." As though we're all school
children being told that we'll all get detention if the trouble makers in the
class keep acting up.

It feels like the _purpose_ of the lockdown - to reduce transmission rate of
the virus - is being forgotten and there is increasing focus on having a list
of Allowed Activities and Forbidden Activities, rather than trying to make a
consistent trade-off between cost (risk of transmission) vs benefit (health -
including, very importantly, mental health effects of retaining or losing
freedom, not to mention the more ideological desire to keep some semblance of
civil liberties).

[1]
[https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52172035](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52172035)

~~~
bmn__
> allowed to use some personal judgement

I don't think that works. It only takes 10% of defectors to create a similar
catastrophic result as with 50% defectors.

Human society has enacted laws for about four millenia and enforces them with
threats and violence. That works to keep those who would otherwise only act in
their own interests in check. There was no group of humans at the size of
Sweden's population in existence where toothless rules like "be excellent to
each other" and "use your best personal judgement" were enough to be workable.

~~~
Grue3
>It only takes 10% of defectors to create a similar catastrophic result as
with 50% defectors.

Do you have math to back that up? Clearly R_0 would be lower in the first case
than in the second. I think significantly lower due to both less infectors and
less opportunities to infect.

~~~
bmn__
toy model
[https://youtu.be/gxAaO2rsdIs?t=724](https://youtu.be/gxAaO2rsdIs?t=724)

------
drcode
I think it's pretty great that the Swedes are willing to sacrifice themselves
for the rest of us for a science experiment. They're going to function as a
"control group" for thousands of scientific papers to come.

...and I'm not being sarcastic when I say that.

~~~
threatofrain
There are other nations and states doing something akin to Sweden, including
within the US. We shall see which states grievously misgambled.

~~~
majkinetor
There is no gamble here. Education.

~~~
threatofrain
Texas and many other states shall look to NY and CA and contrast and see,
especially if aid for massive unemployment turns out to be a partisan issue.
Imagine President Trump wins again. He will note that many GOP states went a
different way and ask which states truly deserves his favor. It’s the White
House that will lead national recovery and distribution of aid, likely with
zero real oversight.

Will NY and CA be left on their own? That is an interesting possibility to
explore.

Jared Kushner: "The notion of the federal stockpile was it's supposed to be
our stockpile," he said. "It's not supposed to be states' stockpiles that they
then use."

Is that a signal for NY and their request for ventilators? How will recovery
political aid look like from the same administration? Affectionate?

------
samizdis
It seems that Sweden is about to change policy, as it said that it would
should the picture change:

[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/sweden-
prepare...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/sweden-prepares-to-
tighten-coronavirus-measures-as-death-toll-climbs)

------
Grue3
I wonder why chicken pox party style solution is not considered.

1\. Gather application from low-risk people to be voluntarily infected. Needs
to be a significant proportion of population.

2\. Schedule them to be infected and isolate until they are virus-free and
immune.

3\. Immune people are released with no restrictions.

4\. Eventually herd immunity is achieved.

~~~
drcode
Robin Hanson has talked a lot about this.
([https://twitter.com/robinhanson](https://twitter.com/robinhanson))

It seems to me to be the obviously correct thing to do (at least insofar as
having immediate testing of the hypothesis at large scale with volunteers) but
it treads on multiple cultural taboos and will therefore never be part of the
gated institutional narrative.

~~~
klingonopera
> _" multiple cultural taboos"_

Honestly asking, are Chicken Pox parties also considered taboo? I don't have
kids, but it sounds sensible to me, and I've heard people talk about it like
it's normal.

But if that's ok, I don't see where the difference would be to doing the same
with the Coronavirus? It's just young adults instead of kids. Is that the
crucial difference? Or is it because the lethality is considered higher? If
yes, where does one draw the line then?

I'd consider myself a Utilitarian, so... everything is just a calculation of
good and bad. Or, to reference pop culture, you could approach me with the
same level of disgust as Androids are generally approached in Alien IV. But I
truly have difficulty understanding how most people appear to tick, so pardon
me, if I look at the numbers of the Coronavirus and just am generally confused
as to why it's such a big fuss.

To me, this sounds like a great idea. Battling it with immunity and also
paying the price of taking a few more additional losses outweigh grinding the
world to a halt and attempting to contain it, at least, if you ask me. And
since a vaccine will take too long (no one appears to deny that), there's no
way around trying to get immunity, and once you've _" accepted"_ that, the
earlier we start, the better. In fact, the later we start, the more lives are
at stake and the more economic damage we'll sustain.

In light of that... such a Chicken Pox party is a legitimate method as part of
the immunity-strategy.

~~~
drcode
If you google mainstream organizations about "chicken pox parties" you will
see that they uniformly say they are a bad idea- Not because they care if
their advice is accurate or not, but simply because "that's what you're
supposed to say" if you want to be part of mainstream discourse in the US.

Insofar as anyone of authority says anything positive about them, it is only
because pox parties are still a relatively obscure phenomenon and therefore
mainstream institutions haven't put in the effort yet to fully tamp down on
dissenting opinions.

~~~
klingonopera
...there's the thing about Chicken Pox, isn't it not far more severe, and
deadly, in adults?

I can remember having caught it as a kid, but if I didn't... I'd believe, I'd
rather be thankful than scornful towards my parents if they had made sure I
had caught it, instead of just letting things take their fateful course...

EDIT: I mean, I _am_ glad I had it as a kid. That means I don't need to worry
about it now, right? Or is that a very naive way of thinking?

~~~
Grue3
If you had chicken pox as a kid, you can get Shingles [1] as an adult. I
actually had it, without much complications but now there's a weird scar on my
face.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shingles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shingles)

~~~
dijit
Worth noting that there _is_ a chicken pox vaccine, you have to take two
injections less than a year apart.

I never had chicken pox as a child and got the vaccine as an adult due to a
colleagues child being exposed to the pox and knowing that it could affect me
and my colleague quite badly.

------
samizdis
I wish Sweden the best of luck. Whatever happens, at least the data being
collected should prove helpful the world over.

------
bobosha
It's a dangerous experiment with human life, and while one can only say "time
will tell", let's hope this doesn't turn into a plague-like catastrophe. But
the pay-off - in case it works - would perhaps be Sweden's greatest
contribution to humanity since the Nobel Prize.

~~~
klingonopera
No, it's not, it would be if the cities were still crowded and no one would be
working from home, but that's not the case.

Most of us skepticals aren't arguing that we shouldn't do anything, but that
we should gracefully allow citizens to adapt, and if necessary, then allow the
government to adjust. This is what Sweden is doing, whereas most of the other
countries were so convinced that what they were doing was right, they just
outright declared it the law, not giving their citizens any chance to handle
it by themselves.

And I believe this "nannying" is something that a whole fucking bunch of us,
especially in the Western hemisphere, are pissed about, and we're looking and
hoping for Sweden to get through this just how we believe would be correct
course of action.

~~~
jjgreen
Hallelujah

------
mnm1
38000 tests in a country of 10 million. [1] Yeah, they have a handle on it
alright. Seems pretty dumb to claim this at this point or to write this
article and leave out that crucial figure. They have no fucking idea what's
happening in their own country but are judging the rest of the world who is,
at least, trying to learn from China and other places, if imperfectly and
super late.

[1] [https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-
beredskap/utb...](https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-
beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige)

------
stareatgoats
Too early to say for certain, but the trajectory for Sweden so far doesn't
look good, compared to neighboring countries that are more under lockdown [0]:

Current deaths per 1 million in covid-19

    
    
      Sweden:  37
      Denmark: 28
      Norway:  11
    

All countries have a similar 'start' date with the Denmark lagging a few days.
None of the countries are recommending homemade masks, which is disturbing.

[0]
[https://mackuba.eu/corona/#compare_countries](https://mackuba.eu/corona/#compare_countries)
(deaths per 1 mln checked)

~~~
klingonopera
Well, yes. More, but shorter. That's why people are calling it a "gamble".

According to the article, ICU capacity is currently at a quarter. They could
probably "afford" a higher rate, and be done with it faster.

Insisting on minimizing that number at all costs is insane. First, only if you
could contain it or a vaccine becomes available, would you be actually
mitigating it, else you're just shifting around a set amount of deaths over a
larger timespan. Second, if you apply that logic consistently across every
aspect of life, you'd have to ban cars too, they're far too dangerous and
deadly. And smoking. And drinking. And the list just goes on. There are some
who'd say yes to all three, but... _oh boy, you must be fun at parties._

Look at the numbers in the US. No matter how it develops or has developed (we
don't know the true infection ratio of the population, which is undoubtedly
higher), there's no more containing it on a global scale. Our globalized and,
at least for the privileged, largely open world with open borders would cease
to exist, for there would be countries that insist on containing it, thus
quarantining anyone entering, and therefore killing off all non-essential
travel, like e.g. tourism. So, to keep that, you need to be immune... or a
vaccine has to exist. But, it's _also_ a gamble to be counting on a vaccine.

~~~
SAI_Peregrinus
> First, only if you could contain it or a vaccine becomes available, would
> you be actually mitigating it, else you're just shifting around a set amount
> of deaths over a larger timespan.

This is incorrect. You're reducing the number of deaths. Think of it like
this: imagine 2% of people need ICU care. 100% of those that don't get ICU
care die. 100% of those that do get ICU care live. ICU care takes a week. You
can have everyone need ICU care all at once: everyone beyond the number of ICU
beds will die, so 2% of the population dies. Or you can spread it out so that
the number of people needing care at once is below the number of ICU beds, and
no one dies.

And since your second point depends on your (flawed) first, it's invalid too.

~~~
klingonopera
> _" This is incorrect. You're reducing the number of deaths. Think of it like
> this: imagine 2% of people need ICU care. 100% of those that don't get ICU
> care die."_

Quoting my earlier reply: _" According to the article, ICU capacity is
currently at a quarter. They could probably "afford" a higher rate, and be
done with it faster._"

I'm obviously aware of that. Now we're just arguing how high the numbers are,
but we agree that they exist. You're arguing Sweden will have numbers so high,
they will be overwhelmed. I believe the infected number is _significantly_
higher than measured, and we're about 1/3rds of peak, so Sweden, in my
opinion, will peak at about 75% ICU capacity.

My second point still stands.

EDIT: Or, to apply _reductio ad absurdum_ to your argument, if we go all the
way and attempt to minimize that number to the extreme, we could be facing a
lockdown lasting years and have ICU capacity barely scratch 1% above nominal
(on the contrary - it would decrease, as reduced societal activity initially
incurs less deaths/ICU cases from e.g. accidents).

------
reustle
I feel Japan will be another interesting place to study. We've had corona
spreading since late January and as recent as last weekend, a majority of
people were out living life like normal.

------
JeanMarcS
They might have change their mind

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22786409](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22786409)

------
dt3ft
Live stats mentioned can be seen here:
[https://www.svt.se/datajournalistik/corona-i-
intensivvarden/](https://www.svt.se/datajournalistik/corona-i-intensivvarden/)

The numbers shown represent those admitted in ICU.

------
s9w
This is somewhat similar to the European vs American (highly simplified) view
on insurances.

