
2010 could be the last year for IPv4 as we know it - vaksel
http://arstechnica.com/web/news/2009/09/2010-could-be-the-last-year-for-ipv4-as-we-know-it.ars
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chrisbolt
IPv4 address space exhaustion estimates are about as accurate as Duke Nukem
Forever release date estimates.

~~~
amalcon
Oh no; they're not nearly that accurate. After all, the most credible Duke
Nukem Forever release date estimates were "Never" for years before it finally
died.

~~~
dkasper
I'm predicting a catastrophe on the scale of the transition from 32 bit to 64
bit. Oh wait...

------
iigs
_Client-server applications such as the Web and e-mail will work just fine
through CGNs and IPv6-to-IPv4 translators, but peer-to-peer applications such
as VoIP and BitTorrent, not so much.

...

So enjoy your peer-to-peer applications while you can; their expiration date
will be coming up not long after 2010._

Oh, come now. Every major ISP has a VoIP project to support competition with
local telcos. The telcos can see the benefits of VoIP and are or will be
offering VoIP soon as well.

With <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Server_Name_Indication> a major driver of
hosting IP demand should decrease.

ISPs can provide the vast majority of todays users NAT with no ill effects --
in fact, ISPs could even sell it as a security feature, as you're keeping all
of the bad guys away from the end user device.

We haven't even started using mitigation strategies in the USA. We have a long
way to go before there's any concern -- we might "run out" of public IPs to
pass out to every customer, but we're a long way from not being able to sell
some services to people because of a resource shortage.

~~~
zokier
Yup. IPv4 can be stretched and band-aided to form some kind of network, but it
would require always some effort, and I would prefer if that effort would be
directed to advance IPv6 proliferation. But as short-term planning is trendy
these days, so ISPs probably will just keep holding onto the sinking boat also
known as IPv4

