
Acer exec says Apple's 'closed' iPad will drop to 20% market share - evo_9
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/08/23/acer_exec_says_apples_closed_ipad_will_drop_to_20_market_share.html
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Eliezer
See, at LessWrong we have a saying about this sort of thing, which runs, "How
much are you willing to bet on that, at what odds?"

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mattbee
Wishful thinking, it sounds like one of Balmer's pronouncements over the
years. You don't see Apple trash-talking potential competitors (well not until
the antenna thing) in the run up to a product launch, they just quietly polish
up a better product than everyone else, and people buy it. Maybe another
company could try that.

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wvenable
Apple has trash-talked Microsoft for decades now including in the run up to OS
X launches.

As for wishful thinking, I may be that but it might also be history repeating
itself.

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protomyth
Well, if history (iPod) repeats itself, I am thinking Apple will do ok.

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houseabsolute
Or the post-OS X mac, for that matter, which is a very profitable and growing
line of business.

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petercooper
It's easy to talk, harder to release stuff. Hundreds of interesting tablet
ideas have been "announced" over the last year, most of which haven't been
released. No matter what Apple gets wrong, one thing stands: they actually
ship products they announce.

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aaronbrethorst
> they actually ship products they announce

I'd argue that—most of the time—Apple announces products they're ready to
ship.

This has been somewhat less true for the iPhone because of FCC certification
requirements, and iPad because they needed developers to build compelling apps
in order to sell the device.

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petercooper
You're right, though the result, as compared to others, looks the same. Apple
releases what they announce. Not everyone does, as anyone who keeps an eye on
the e-reader or tablet markets will be sadly aware.

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wmf
20% market share, 60% profit share, 90% mindshare... which is more important?

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hristov
Obviously profit share is the most important, but in consumer electronics it
is very hard to keep high profit share with low market share. Electronics have
a lot of efficiencies of scale so the people with higher market share will
eventually start making their stuff much cheaper and thus they will be able to
both lower prices and improve their margins, which will really squeeze your
profits.

And eventually you will have to be content with selling the same hardware as
your competitors with your brand and your own software on it. Sound familiar?

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wmf
Although iOS will have lower market share than Android, the iPad will probably
have _higher_ market share than any _individual_ Android tablet, and thus the
hardware economy of scale actually goes to Apple.

Also, is there any _additional_ economy of scale beyond, say, 10M units per
year?

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gamble
Exactly. This is why HP can have so much more of the laptop market, yet
Apple's laptops are much better engineered. Apple sells so many units of each
SKU that they can afford to spend more designing each one.

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Tycho
What I really want to see is a fold up tablet. In fact I'd say the two most
important things to improve with iPad is weight and outdoor visibility. I
imagine they'll improve that with the next version or at least within the next
few years. But for a longterm 10 year target, I think someone will come up
with a iPhone sized device that folds out to iPAd size.

See how much better can phones really get? Tablets are a more interesting
prospect at least physically. Competition should be more interesting.

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rmason
Isn't that what he said eight years ago about the iPod? Apple will be lucky to
get 20-30% marketshare max. Didn't turn out that way did it?

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wmf
OTOH, Apple is not following the same playbook. They haven't introduced the
iPad Nano or the iPhone Shuffle.

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mattmanser
Wow, the story should actually be that a journalist manages to create a 300
odd word story out of a 90 word article. That's a lot of hand waving for no
real substance.

Original story:

[http://www.digitimes.com/NewsShow/NewsSearch.asp?DocID=PB000...](http://www.digitimes.com/NewsShow/NewsSearch.asp?DocID=PB000000000000000000000000005090&query=APPLE)

A hell of a lot has probably been lost in translation here.

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xutopia
By that same logic Linux should rule the desktop and Windows would never have
had 90%+ market share.

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ergo98
Windows is a remarkably open operating system for users and integrators. While
Microsoft doesn't give out the source, they don't have to -- you can
dramatically customize virtually every part of it, install whatever you'd
like, do whatever you'd like, etc.

I don't think the Windows analogy flies at all, except perhaps to support
Android.

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lzw
They said the same thing about the iPod and the iPhone.

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nir
They are correct about the iPhone, and will be correct about the iPad - it's
not really about closeness in this case, but price.

Cheap Android tablets are already popping up and Apple will probably prefer
maintaining their domination of the high end rather than compete with $150
(and in a few years $35?) products.

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evo_9
Sure but given the choice of buying let's say a acer tablet or the rumored 7"
iPad for a little more (guessing the price is going to be 200ish less than the
current iPad).

Apple has a good knack for keeping ahead of the market and their competitors.

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nir
If the price is comparable I think Apple will maintain leadership, regardless
of platform openness (at least in the short term).

It remains to see if Apple would be interested at all in competing at the low
range. They mostly avoid it in the desktops/laptops market, but do compete
with iPods, so who knows.

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evo_9
Yeah I agree on the low-end aversion thing. I just don't think it's a matter
of 'low-end' versus 'high-end'; I think it's more about brand awareness and
pricing accordingly.

 _If_ Apple has a comparable product at a similar price (read: slightly more
than everyone else), they are going to clean up. Most people are going to pick
a brand they know well and is publicly very highly regarded over a similarly
priced, 'cheaper knock-off'. And sure Apple didn't invent the 'tablet' but as
far as mainstream buyers are concerned they did.

