
Probabilistic Programming in Quantitative Finance - botbooty
http://blog.quantopian.com/probabilistic-programming-quant-finance/
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yetanotherphd
For those confused by the title, Probabilistic Programing = Bayesian
Statistics.

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digler999
I was confused by the article not delivering on the title. 1) you can't
measure it so "model it" , and throw out fancy acronyms like MCMG and hand-
waving.

Just in case anyone's wondering, there are other avenues (read: real science)
where BA and other analysis are applied toward a definite result. An actuarial
table will accurately predict what an insurance premium should be. These
"quant" people are pseudo-scientists, alchemists.

Just ask this question: what results are they delivering ? 2 days ago there
was, on HN, a 2010 article about how "investment bankers" don't actually _do_
anything. What does a quant do ? What value do they deliver to anyone ?

Guess what ? I can "model" the statistical distribution of mold growing in my
fridge or "monty carlo" simulate the path of rodents in my garage and I've
arrived at nothing more substantial in the end. It's a disgrace what these
people are doing. Bright minds wasting their talent.

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Mikeb85
> These "quant" people are pseudo-scientists, alchemists.

To a certain degree, you're right. Their job is essentially that of a fortune
teller - to predict the future.

Markets are so complex that there is no single 'model' that can predict them.
Furthermore, there are always winners and losers, people who lag the market
and those who beat it. Coming up with a 'model' to beat the market is
essentially the same as coming up with a model to win at poker. You can use
statistics and math to inform yourself, but at the end of the day there's a
certain amount of the unknown you have to deal with...

