

Why your startup should never release numbers - kapilkale
http://www.giftrocket.com/stealthy-speedy

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patio11
I release numbers and have had my businesses cloned, extensively. That isn't a
terribly large competitive threat -- if you can't totally paste someone trying
to knock off your hairbrained strategy from 12 months ago, what are you doing
in this industry?

If I was to argue for keeping numbers secret, and you'll notice I'm kinda
circumspect with regards to certain ones, it might be because you have
multiple audiences. Numbers everyone knows are boring to some audiences.
Secret numbers, though, secret numbers are a very valuable currency.

~~~
jacquesm
At the risk that hairbrained is another one of your plays on words, there may
be a typo in there ;)

~~~
einhverfr
At first I thought it was an eggcorn (look it up), but it turns out that both
hairbrained and harebrained have long histories, so if it is an eggcorn, it is
an old one.

------
dpcan
I've had a lot of success on the Android Market, but I'm frankly scared to
release my numbers. I dwell over it a lot, but I can't figure out how it would
help, other than to possibly make myself more popular on the web or to
motivate others who are on the edge, thinking about entering the Android
Market. I don't think I would get any new sales of my games from doing it, but
I do think I'd increase the amount of competition I have, and the more
competition I get, the harder it is to make money in this space.

Basically, I agree with the opinion in this article when it come to startups.
I think releasing numbers is dangerous, especially when just starting out. I'm
not signing up for a business tool online if I see the creator isn't making a
profit. I don't have the time to invest in something that won't be around
tomorrow.

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g0atbutt
Hi HN, I'm Paul Hontz (the guy who wrote the article that was linked to) and
I'd like to correct some core things that Kapil got wrong.

Kapil's first mistake is that he misses the context of my post and insinuates
that I'm always for releasing numbers. That is not the case. The post he
linked to was titled "Make your Startup ridiculously easy to write about. Put
Together a Great Press Pack". The meat of the article was saying "Sharing
numbers with journalists can be a very good way to demonstrate traction and
get them interested in you".

It doesn't matter if you have an amazing idea (or product) if no one uses it.

The numbers game works indirectly as well. If I haven't heard of a startup
before, but I know a lot of people use it, I'm more inclined to reach out with
an interview request.

All that said, with the limited time I've spent with Kapil (in an interview),
I believe he's a good guy, he just missed the mark on this post.

~~~
kapilkale
Hi Paul,

Sorry to call you out so publicly. I really like what you're doing with
Startup Foundry. I actually think the post overall was great, and as a result
of it we put together a set of assets on our press page.

The problem is that most journalists have an interest in sharing how well a
startup is doing, because that is inherently interesting information and makes
their article better. But in most cases it isn't in the interest of the
startup to divulge that information for the reasons I outlined in the article.

Thus, founders who haven't had much experience with press (e.g. me 9 months
ago) might make suboptimal decisions in the face of pressure coming from
journalists. Some give honest numbers. Some lie. I'm just advocating not
giving any numbers at all.

~~~
jaylevitt
I think the negative responses are trying to tell you what you've missed: If,
9 months ago, you had no serious press or startup experience, you have _no
idea_ what the startup should do "in most cases". At best, you have a not-yet-
validated idea of what your own startup should do. At worst, you have a
mistake you'll reflect upon later.

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equalarrow
Sorry, but this is lame. Why worry about this stuff - worry more about plowing
ahead and just cranking.

This, to me, comes from a mindset of 'lack in the universe'. Basically that's
saying that there are only unique and limited ideas. The reality is completely
different. Startup ideas are a dime a dozen and, for instance, Facebook wasn't
the first secret social network. Think they obsessed over whether or not to
release numbers when they were small?

If you have the mindset that everyone is going to fuck you over, then yes,
hold your cards close and never say anything. But if you believe that human
inspiration and inventiveness (which I tend to believe in) is limitless, then
just go with your gut.

I'm working on a 'stealth' startup now. The worst thing I could do is toil
away in obscurity and not say anything to anyone. Instead, I want to tell as
many of my friends as I know everything about it. I want to hear about what
sounds right and what doesn't. And if an investor wants to know numbers (when
I actually _get_ numbers), then I'll tell him flat out. Whatever, let him try
to clone it. I bet he couldn't hire a team as passionate and on track as mine
to do a better job. That's how confident I am in our vision and execution.

Like Clint said: you either get busy livin or get busy dyin. Worrying about
releasing number to me is 'lack' and that's busy dyin in my book. Good luck..

------
Pobe
It depends of your strategy.

If the numbers give your start-up a competitive advange, I say go on use it.
It will attract customers, make you trustworthy (social proof kind of, be
honest though) and scare the competition (or stimulate it, it depends on the
strategy).

In the other hand, if your strategy is to make a big BANG at your launch, that
you, for example, sell your product/services to small amount of customers,
then now, being a ninja is the good way to go. And by small amount I mean an
amount you can reach by phone for your start-up to be viable.

There is no such thing as good and bad decision. It depends on, oh.. wait..
your strategy.

~~~
jpdoctor
> _make you trustworthy_

Only for those that believe marketing, ie the gullible.

~~~
GFischer
That's a lot of us.

Social proof is important, see joshfraser upthread mentioning Sendgrid's
numbers give him confidence: <http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3371877>

They do nudge me too.

See also: [http://techcrunch.com/2011/11/27/social-proof-why-people-
lik...](http://techcrunch.com/2011/11/27/social-proof-why-people-like-to-
follow-the-crowd/)

~~~
jpdoctor
> _That's a lot of us._

Proof by assertion, again, which is what the numbers-advertising game is all
about.

------
vasco
I understand this is just someone sharing an opinion but most of the time when
I read articles about startups people seem like they're talking about opinions
and subjective thoughts as if they're hard facts.

What works for some companies in a given environment may not work at all in
another situation. Sharing a scenario is good. Making as rules based on
anecdotes isn't so good.

------
joshfraser
In general, I agree. I think a good counter example is sendgrid.com. The fact
that they have sent a bajillion emails installs a lot of confidence when I'm
considering becoming a customer. Note, they pick the biggest number they can
show while still hiding their number of customers & actual revenue.

------
davidw
I think you should either not bother, or make a big deal out of it - make it
part of your marketing, ala Balsamiq. In between seems like the bad space to
be: not attracting any interest because of the numbers, but still giving them
out to people sniffing around your business that you don't necessarily want to
know everything.

------
mbesto
Never trust advice that uses the word always or never.

~~~
forensic
Never trust advice that contradicts itself. :)

------
adrianwaj
Looking good raises personal and sector status, but someone can come and steal
your thunder or undermine you, but if they fail, that can be used to your
advantage (they give you ideas and customers) or else one can more easily fail
upwardly at that point.

Reminds me of the album title: "100,000,000 Bon Jovi Fans Can't Be Wrong"

Seeing a bunch of me-too bands could be good for Jon's ego if he can laugh at
those wannabes, but alternatively being seen as niche and undiscovered might
be better.

For me, I think releasing numbers (of a social network) would be more about
conferring legitimacy more than anything else, and secondly, increasing
competition, which I think is good if you can win.

Fred Wilson: "We like category creators — people who are the first to develop
a company and a market — as opposed to copy cats."
[http://www.women2.org/a-vc-fred-wilson-talks-on-building-
mob...](http://www.women2.org/a-vc-fred-wilson-talks-on-building-mobile-
startups-with-founder-labs/)

------
paulhauggis
Releasing your numbers is just asking for trouble. If you are small, someone
that has more resources can come along and put you out of business.

~~~
drusenko
I wouldn't be worried about "someone with more resources" putting out of
business "someone with small numbers".

I would be more worried about my numbers attracting a _very_ talented startup
team into my market.

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betashop
I could not disagree more.

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mthreat
Maybe it depends how large the numbers are? Google kept their (amazing)
numbers hidden as long as possible. When they filed for IPO, their AdWords
revenue numbers blew everyone away.

