
Virus Survival Strategy for Startups - ingve
https://steveblank.com/2020/03/17/the-virus-survival-strategy-for-your-startup/
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cs702
_> Social isolation and a declared national emergency have had an immediate
impact on industries that cluster people; conferences, trade shows,
airlines/cruise ships and all types of travel, the hospitability industry,
sporting events, theater and movies, restaurants and schools. Large companies
are sending employees to work at home. Large retail chains are shutting down
their stores. While the impact on small businesses and workers in the “gig-
economy” hasn’t made the news, it will be worse for them. They have fewer cash
reserves and less margin of error for managing sudden downturns. The ripple
and feedback effect of all of these closures will have a major impact on our
economy, as each industry that gets impacted puts people out of work, and
those laid off workers don’t buy products and services.

> It’s no longer business as usual for the rest of the economy. In fact,
> shutting down the economy for a pandemic has never happened. Millions of
> jobs may be lost in the next few months, as entire industries get
> devastated, something not seen since the Great Depression of 1929-39. I hope
> that I’m very wrong, but the impact of this virus social and economic
> effects are likely to be profound, and will change how we shop, travel and
> work for years._

I too hope Blank is wrong, but it's hard to disagree with his logic.

Unless governments worldwide act aggressively now to keep businesses -- and
families -- afloat, a scarily large number of them look likely to face ruin in
the near future. Consider the vast mass of families who have no savings and
would suddenly lose their income.

If you're running or working for a startup, please read the entire post.

~~~
vikramkr
The fed has been acting extraordinarily aggressively - which on one hand good
news they're acting aggressively, but on the other hand a lot of people are
taken aback by just how aggressive the response is since the fed is kind of
signalling that they think this is as bad as 2008 or 1929 and are taking
action, which is worse than many were originally thinking it was.

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bob33212
The big issue right now is that the data suggests that 15% of people over 80
and 7% of people over 70 could die from this. If it turns out that those
numbers are incorrect or that a medical treatment or preventative measure is
discovered which drastically changes those numbers we could see a huge
reversal of behavior. If the numbers get close to flu numbers people will want
to know why we don't shut the economy down every year for the flu.

~~~
bobwaycott
> _If the numbers get close to flu numbers people will want to know why we don
> 't shut the economy down every year for the flu._

My initial guess would be the existence of a flu vaccine.

~~~
12elephant
The flu vaccine is not a true vaccine. It's a best guess vaccine at how the
virus has mutated, and is often ineffective.

~~~
bobwaycott
My comment had nothing to do with efficacy. It’s a guess at why public panic
over standard flu cycles does not occur.

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wegs
I don't agree with this logic. Startups need to pivot. This creates
opportunity. If we all go into recession groupthink, that's what will happen.

Big companies aren't serving the current needs and market well. Startups can
go in, and serve new markets better. There are a million open beachhead
markets right now.

We need to re-ramp our economy as in WWII, not shut it down.

~~~
frankish
I strongly agree. I can't stop thinking about the potential to completely
revamp our society.

The business opportunities and needs are there. Whether it's automating the
service worker industries, fully shifting to work from home, new ways of
virtual communication, etc. Much of the infrastructure (primarily internet) is
there to support it.

This would require an elimination of low paid jobs, which are the typical jobs
preventing social distancing. Assuming we can follow a "nobody left behind"
mentality (UBI?), imagine the progress we'd make if we raised the bar of
entry-level jobs. Investments in creative and new education programs would
follow.

Of course, I'm overly optimistic about this, but the potential is there
because the whole country (USA) is on the same page right now. Congress is
drafting up a stimulus package, which is essentially UBI. It's a very
interesting experiment and I really hope we make the most of it and evolve our
society and culture.

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artichikin
My established B2C SaaS app business is already seeing a steep drop in
signups, activity, and sales this week. Feels like it's going to be a tough
fight for survival, and already taking a lot of steps to begin turtle-mode.

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iagovar
Please Americans, take preemptive measures. Ramp up masks, respirators,
gloves, alcohol, bleach production. Work from home if you can, protect workers
from logistic chains. Don't wait until you have the numbers on top of you.

It's not only the virus, is the deep economical effects it is having. Massive
layoffs now in Spain, the economy is basically at full stop.

If you don't do it, it's not only you who will suffer. Everyone will.

Please, please, be responsible. Not only for your elders but for everything
else. Don't wait until it becomes personal, you get relatives infected or you
lose your job or your business. Every time you don't act is way more people
infected, way more people dead, way more people with problems.

Make homemade masks if you need to. Wear them no matter what other think.

Learn from others mistakes. Don't undervaluate the situation. You should
understand this situation as a war-like one, but in your own soil.

I saw it coming, didn't have to go through the denial phase, but it makes me
nervous nonetheless. It's different to know about something than going through
it. If you are calmed now, take advantage of that emotional state to plan
ahead, you will perform better.

~~~
f0ok
I've been preparing for weeks. Meanwhile, I explain to others what is coming
(I live in a rural area in Canada). People laugh at me or simply don't care.

This requires such a strong shift in paradigm that they will need to see
things falling apart or people dying close to them until they act.

~~~
iagovar
Dude make everything you can. If they don't trust your word, try to show them
news pieces that explain the nature of the exponential function. NYT on others
are doing some work on it.

Believe me, I went through 2008 and it was hard here in Spain, but this is
something different. You're nervous not only for your economical future but
for your health and the health of your loved ones, and it's an invisible
enemy.

The government is saying that this is a huge crisis, but a temporal one.
Society is closing down and pretty much everyone agrees that this is bad and
is going to be for long.

Those of you who know what's coming, you should make your best effort. I
regret I didn't go way more vocal of fears of being dismissed as an alarmist.

