
10 signs you're in a tech bubble - nickb
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/06/01/sign_tech_bubble/
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bilbo0s
I am of a different opinion than the other posters so far. I believe we are in
somewhat of a love fest right now. The number of me-too companies out there
keeps growing. I think that the entrepreneurs starting these companies would
be well advised to realize that the VC community is actually COUNTING on most
of these to fail. So this represents a large number of our brightest young men
expending their best efforts on enterprises that everyone accepts will
probably ultimately fail. This is concerning for the economists.

I was reading on a blog of very good repute this morning about two financing
deals that were announced today. One, was for Multiverse. They were given
$4.175 million for a post money valuation of right around $10 million. This is
familiar to most of us. The second was for HiPiHi. They were given somewhere
between $7 Million and $10 Million for a post money valuation of between $70
and $100 Million. Both companies are in the same segment, virtual worlds. Both
companies are at the same stage of life. "Why the different valuations?",
demanded this blog.

HiPiHi is Chinese. Frankly, Chinese entrepreneurs have a better track record
with respect to actually having users PAY for their products. EVEN THOUGH THE
CHINESE USERS ARE NOTORIOUS PIRATES. Although most of the money was coming
from American VCs, the advantage was given to the Chinese team because of this
crucial difference. So China's young men are gaining experience building
companies, our young men are gaining experience flipping companies.

Is there still any hope?

Can ANY of you young men see where I'm going with this?

It's anyone's guess how the current tech industry story ends. However, from
the standpoint of a dispassionate economic analysis it would be thoroughly
understandable if it ended poorly.

~~~
Tichy
Could the difference in evaluation result from the different background of the
founders? I don't know anything about Multiverse, but apparently the HPiHi
people already have a background of founding very successful companies.

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lupin_sansei
A speculative bubble is when people buy large amounts of stocks (usually with
little thought to the actual company) in the hope that they will be worth more
in the future.

The promise of a future higher value causes people to rush in, buying more and
more stocks until one day people decide that they are not going to get a
higher value for their shares and sell them all at the same time. This causes
panic selling, and the bubble bursts. I don't see this happening (in tech)
right now. Real estate yes, but not tech.

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gregwebs
I don't think people that write these articles even understand what a bubble
is- otherwise they might actually define it. There is no such thing as a 'tech
bubble'. Technology keeps developing at a fairly steady rate through all the
bubbles. A bubble is about money- people making bad investments. There seems
to be one major difference between the current time and the previous bubble-
worthless companies are not being pumped and dumped on an unwitting public.

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awt
So... we're in a bubble. What should we do? Nothing? Became assembly line
workers? Work for IBM?

~~~
antirez
No, just focus on the users, solve real problems, have a working business
model, be profitable ASAP, avoid to get VC funds.

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juwo
I believe we are in a bubble. Though not for the reasons he suggests. I am
still trying to think through whether it is valid to think so.

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Tichy
Just a naysayer...

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sabat
Sorry, I just don't buy it. See, when the "bubble" term was coined 10 or so
years ago, they were talking about a _stock market bubble_. The worst thing
that's going to happen in this "bubble" is that VCs stop investing -- and as
we've seen, that might not be the worst thing that ever happened. You don't
need big money anymore, just a good idea, some dedication, and some technical
chops.

I think these guys just like saying the word "bubble." It makes them feel
good.

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sabat
You might write a different article, entitled "Top Sign You're _Not_ in a
Bubble".

1- journalists on slow news days keep insisting you're in a bubble

