
95-Degree Days: How Extreme Heat Could Spread Across the World - Red_Tarsius
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/06/22/climate/95-degree-day-maps.html
======
Mz
_In the United States, electricity use soars as temperatures rise and more
households use air-conditioning more frequently. One recent study found that
the United States’ electric grid would have to handle a 7.2 percent increase
in peak demand this century under a moderate warming scenario._

It would be wise to promote passive solar design. Relying on AC just burns
more fuel and this makes global warming worse. It winds up being a vicious
cycle and it isn't actually necessary.

We also need to support more pedestrian and bike options. There are lots of
little things that can help. These tend to not get counted and when things
don't get as bad as people expected, this news tends to get swept under the
rug. But if you are really concerned about this, you can make some modest
lifestyle changes to help curb this trend. If you live in a first world
country, your modest efforts will generally count for more than you think
because we tend to consume so much more than people in less developed
countries.

Some years back when I was taking environmental law classes, one American
consumed something like 200 times as much as someone from India. So cutting
back a few percent as an American is potentially about like outright
eliminating the impact of several people from a less developed country. Even
very modest cut backs can be about like someone from a less developed country
cutting their consumption in half.

~~~
w8rbt
The smart grid is being designed now to solve this. Increase efficiency, allow
for renewables (wind and solar), and reduce transmission loss (averages 7% in
USA), etc. Let's just hope we can properly secure it, the advanced metering
infrastructure (AMI) has a very large attack surface and spans from homes, to
distribution, transmission and ultimately all the back to power generation.

~~~
Mz
Passive solar is better than having a smart grid, and we can also do both.
Using little or no electricity is more efficient than using green electricity.

I think we really need to push for passive solar design. It is the answer that
allows for high quality of life and lowered use of electricity. Most other
answers involve doing without. This does not.

~~~
0xcde4c3db
Almost all examples I've seen of passive solar design assume that a new
building is being built, and often use unconventional techniques and
materials. I've seen a smattering of retrofit examples, but get the impression
that they're pretty expensive relative to the results. Are there proven,
economical approaches for existing buildings, especially those for which
renovations are subject to building codes?

~~~
Mz
I don't have firsthand experience, but I know some techniques can be retrofit.
Low hanging fruit includes landscaping to provide shade in summer and a wind
break in winter. Here are a couple of articles found with a quick google that
look pretty solid at first glance:

[http://www.motherearthnews.com/green-homes/passive-solar-
hom...](http://www.motherearthnews.com/green-homes/passive-solar-home-
zmaz80mazraw)

[https://www.homepower.com/articles/home-efficiency/design-
co...](https://www.homepower.com/articles/home-efficiency/design-
construction/passive-solar-retrofit)

~~~
dsfyu404ed
Wind breaks suck for shoveling snow. They become perpetual snow drifts.

~~~
posguy
Use it where it makes sense, this isn't hard to plan out and think ahead. For
example, you could landscape this way all over Seattle or Portland, and in
most of Hood River, OR as the wind is only consistently strong in small areas
in the winter.

Also, no reason you can't plant or prune existing trees/shrubbery such that
they don't become a blocker for snow, we do it all the time out in Eastern
Oregon. A little forethought goes a long way.

------
SamUK96
It is sometimes hard to tell with these types of very slowly developing
changes if there is actually a worsening or not situation happening. It's like
watching grass grow in real time and trying to see if it's length is _really_
changing. Is it really getting worse or is it an enormous "good old days"
fallacy? Mixture of the two? Scientific evidence of course points to a very
grim future of more dry, hot, barren, inhospitable land area...

In the UK, my parents had snow every year where they lived. Now snow in the
same area is getting extremely rare, happening only twice in large-ish amounts
over the past 10 to 15 years (source: i lived there too for over 20 years).
Over my (rather) short time on Earth, i swear that we never used to get so
many heatwaves as a child.

It feels like we all collectively killing our children (or if not them, then
their children), but nobody can do anything about it. The future of Earth's
climate is one of those things that really gets people down it seems from a
very anecdotal view of the people around me. The helplessness of it all.

~~~
BlackjackCF
I think losing hope that we can't do anything against it is really dangerous.

I know we haven't been on the verge in _this_ way, but I do really believe
that we can overcome this with human innovation. Even if it means having to
pummel some rich, greedy folks first.

~~~
zzalpha
Oh make no mistake, speaking for myself, I think we absolutely can do
something about global warming.

I just don't believe we will.

In fact I would bet a significant dollar amount that by 2035 or so we will
have done nothing and we _might_ be debating risk mitigation strategies since,
by then, the effects may finally be too profound to ignore (e.g. chunks of
Miami Beach regularly under water).

------
jhulla
Focusing global political will into action to address climate change is hard.

What is depressing is that even when local benefits are present, it is
challenging to enact policy. Case in point: the folks over at Citylab
periodically write about the loss of urban forests.

Here is an article from May'17: McMansions Are Killing L.A.'s Urban Forest.
[https://www.citylab.com/equity/2017/05/as-officials-push-
for...](https://www.citylab.com/equity/2017/05/as-officials-push-for-
plantings-remodeled-homes-are-killing-las-trees/525069/)

Look at the attached map, even the liberal enclaves of Santa Monica, Venice,
Manhattan Beach, BelAir, Hollywood Hills and Beverly Hills show tree cover
loss.

Sad.

~~~
Red_Tarsius
We need a new ' _Manhattan project_ ' to find and enforce a solution. The best
and brightest minds from all over the world in one place, focusing on this
issue 24/7\. The situation cannot be underestimated anymore.

Realistically, we can't expect people to live peacefully in lands without food
and water. This is going to kickstart the biggest migratory wave in history.

~~~
kanzure
> We need a new 'Manhattan project' to find and enforce a solution.

No, we don't. Large-scale geoengineering proposals have already been made and
they are like <$1B each. Many have been calculated to reduce global average
temperature by multiple degrees for hundreds of years. It's completely
ridiculous that everyone is still complaining about climate change. $1B is
significantly less than the total cost spent worrying about these things so
far, not to mention the cost of actual damage already incurred and predicted
to occur.

EDIT: for starters, see
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_climate_engineering_to...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_climate_engineering_topics)
and
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_engineering#Proposed_s...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_engineering#Proposed_strategies)

~~~
eropple
If you're going to make _staggering, sweeping claims_ , it would be nice of
you to do more than link two Wikipedia articles with a bunch of
undifferentiated stuff in them. How about some detailed examples of why this
is so not-a-big-deal? Show some work?

------
liberte82
I saw it was 115 in Phoenix yesterday, like what? As a Canadian that does not
even compute.

~~~
DamnYuppie
115 in Phoenix at this time of year is not abnormal. Having grown up in
southern Arizona 105 or 110 was not uncommon and really didn't deter us from
going out, of course going out met going to a pool.

~~~
liberte82
Yeah I didn't really have a larger point about this being due to climate
change or anything. I realize that no one specific data point is ever evidence
of climate change or lack thereof (unlike that senator who brought a snowball
into Congress).

I could handle 115 in a pool... probably couldn't handle the walk to/from the
vehicle.

------
elorant
In Greece we're expecting a heatwave in the following days that will reach up
to 109 F. So 95 looks like Christmas.

~~~
ChuckMcM
I spent my younger days living in Las Vegas and adapted fairly quickly to the
heat after moving there. However there was always three qualitative steps when
it came to heat, when temperatures cross 100F (38C), when they cross 110F
(43C), and when they cross 120F (49C).

Generally the temperatures stayed below 110 but it was pretty easy to know
that the temperature was "over 100" or "under 100". Once the temperature got
to 110 it started to feel oppressive. Out by Lake Mead where we would sail and
play on the 'beaches'[1] when it occasionally crossed 120 it actually started
feeling threatening. Even in the water I always felt "You must get out of this
heat" when it was over 120. Sort of an existential threat to health and
safety.

The interesting bit is the water carrying capacity of air when it is warmer.
As global temperatures rise, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere goes
up. If that turns into clouds in the stratosphere it continues to get hotter,
if it turns into clouds in the troposphere it gets colder.

[1] We called them beaches but really its just the desert running into the
water that is backed up behind Hoover dam.

~~~
mvindahl
Reminds me of an anecdote that I read about the admirable society of Dubai.
Apparently, the law requires that once the officially measured temperature
exceed 50C/122F, the slaves (or whatever the official term is) are given the
day off from the construction sites.

Anyway, the officially measured temperature tends to never exceed 49C, even
when anyone could measure with their own thermometer that it's really hotter.

------
valuearb
95 degrees is really nice in Arizona and miserable in Oregon because of
relative humidity.

------
pmurT
If humans really are causing climate change, nothing appreciable will be done
until there is no choice - that's by and large how people operate
unfortunately.

~~~
liberte82
If by people you mean the 30-40% of any given population that will fight tooth
and nail against anyone telling them what to do, I agree.

Not _everyone_ is opposed to climate change action. Those that are are loud
and fight hard for power. We need to remember that. At one point it felt
hopeless to take on the tobacco industry.

~~~
rayiner
It's 30-40% of the population that opposes the token non-solutions that have
been proposed by liberal governments. A lot more than that would oppose the
drastic economic measures that would be necessary to really avert climate
change.

~~~
yk
Thing is, Greenpeace started to work on green development in the eighties,
along with several leftist faculty and think tanks. Now, thirty odd years
later, liberals have a nice thirty year head start and the solutions we know
will work are optimized in accordance with liberal values, that is higher
taxes and a better live for everybody. If you don't like that, well you solve
problems with the solutions you have, not with the solutions you want.

~~~
rayiner
> and the solutions _we know will work_ are optimized in accordance with
> liberal values

We don't know what will work. Liberal solutions like the Kyoto Protocol and
the Paris Accords, probably won't: [https://www.ecowatch.com/james-hansen-
climate-change-2030724...](https://www.ecowatch.com/james-hansen-climate-
change-2030724330.html).

~~~
yk
Yes, by itself these will not be enough. However, in Kyoto the international
community agreed that there is a problem, in Paris the international community
set (self imposed, not enough and non binding) targets for emissions. It will
need several additional steps into the same direction to get a workable
framework, and that will hopefully happen over the next decade. The (American)
right will not like any of these steps, but they did not propose any
alternative, it could have been possible to find market based solutions and
respect national sovereignty more, or rely on the virtue of small communities
etc., but these proposals were simply not developed.

------
spodek
> _In the United States, some urban planners are already experimenting with
> techniques like adding green spaces or increasing the reflectivity of
> rooftops to cool down city centers during heat waves._

As usual, anything but suggesting people change their behavior to reduce
global warming.

We want laws to force us to do things, but won't do them otherwise. Where is
the call for us to change our behavior?

~~~
durge
Because nobody wants to live like Appalachians when they can live like San
Franciscans. One is clearly more comfortable.

~~~
linkregister
Don't city dwellers in general consume less greenhouse gases due to improved
density and efficiency?

~~~
durge
The improved density and efficienty allows population that necessitates the
use of factory farming, petrochemical based fertilizers, massive
infrastructure, traffic congestion etc. Per individual the carbon footprint is
smaller (until you get to the really rural poor), but overall the effect of
this process is more consumption on net. It's just the way it is. If we really
wanted to go green, we'd all be on mopeds and have one shirt.

~~~
linkregister
You're making a Malthusian argument. Yes, if you were to kill the city
dwellers, then net carbon release would be lower. Given the same amount of
humans, however, distributed with rural or suburban densities, you face a
dramatic increase in carbon release. Unless humans were to go back to pre-
industrial populations, carbon release would be much higher.

I think that rural life is more enjoyable than urban life, but feelings don't
change the facts.

So I'm not sure what you're advocating. It is almost as if you are changing
the argument in order to feel as if you won.

~~~
durge
I'm not advocating anything.

