
'The miracle is over': UCSF doctor on what went wrong in California - jelliclesfarm
https://www.sfgate.com/news/editorspicks/article/UCSF-Bob-Wachter-California-coronavirus-surge-15376550.php
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gnusty_gnurc
NYC seems fine after Memorial Day and weeks of widespread protesting. You'd
expect places that weren't hit before to still be vulnerable to spread. Seems
to indicate that perhaps herd immunity is much lower than whatever's been
suggested (~80% or so) if NYC is any indication.

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bsder
The problem is that a bunch of entitled dipshits (encouraged by the idiots in
the GOP--but being a dipshit, especially in Southern California, has more than
its share of Democratic members) in California find it "Oh so inconvenient" to
wear masks and stay home. California is the land of "Karen", after all.

Well, this is what you get. Had California _actually_ followed the model of
New York, it would have been mostly back to normal by September.

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gnusty_gnurc
Quarantine is a luxury of the rich.

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bsder
The rich were among the most vocal of the anti-quarantine charge.

Once the disease starts running rampant, people are going to self-quarantine
_anyway_.

So, we can either quarantine in a coordinated fashion that will help reduce
the disease and get us back to semi-normal with some precautions.

Or, we can self-quarantine in an ad-hoc fashion that allows the disease to run
rampant basically indefinitely and kills off our health-care workers.

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gnusty_gnurc
In global terms, only very wealthy societies can afford to lock themselves in
their houses indefinitely - and even then there's obvious limits.

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bsder
Who said _indefinitely_? Don't make straw men.

New York shows that even with a _massive_ outbreak, you can contain it in
about 9 weeks. This is data and fact (and the wonder of exponential growth and
decay).

But, yeah, during that 9 weeks you have to be _SERIOUS_ about it. After that,
you can start opening some things up with precautions.

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gnusty_gnurc
> This is data and fact (and the wonder of exponential growth and decay).

The data seems to fit up to a Gompertz curve. The rate of growth was declining
exponentially from the beginning. Since this corresponds to so many locations
around the world, there must be something going on that most people aren't
recognizing. If it were due to lockdown we'd see some variation between
locations cause they can't all enact lockdown in exactly the same way, with
same timing, etc.

