

How I Predicted Pebble Backers with 98% Accuracy - pospischil
http://blog.custora.com/2012/06/how-i-predicted-pebble-backers-with-98-accuracy/

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badclient
Great story headline, extremely poor content. He reveals very little about how
he came up with his guess. All you are left with are just obvious statements:

 _Here, my costs were negative—it was an interesting and fun problem to
consider and even small projects are opportunities to teach and improve—and
the upside was positive. Why not make a bet?_

I'm really not interested in learning _when_ you should make a prediction; I'm
more interested in learning how you make the best prediction. In the end, I am
left disappointed.

In absence of much explanation about how you reached your predictions, it
sounds like you just picked a number off your gut since you had _nothing to
lose_.

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aaronjg
Good point. I helped run the contest, and want add a bit more background.

Robert's answer was in many ways an educated guess. He took some of the
numbers, looked at other projects and put it together to get a good guess.

However his motivation for making a guess was spot on. We got a lot of answers
that were more thorough. But just as Robert conjectured, these were all
relatively similar, and all under predicted the true number of backers.

Robert's prediction was the highest prediction that we got, mostly because he
was able to correctly guess that there would be another wave of supporters
before the backing period ended.

