
A bad cup of tea and the birth of modern statistics - apophasis
https://www.sciencehistory.org/distillations/ronald-fisher-a-bad-cup-of-tea-and-the-birth-of-modern-statistics
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gwillen
When I was a Google SRE, during one trip to Zurich I complained that I hated
the lack of my standard vice, Diet Coke, in Europe (they have "Coke Light"
instead). My boss didn't believe me that I could tell the difference... so he
brought some back to the States and we ran a blind test. (I think we also
added Pepsi and some other things.) My recollection is that I got every sample
correct, but we definitely didn't have that many! I wonder what the
probability of a false positive was in that case. (I no longer drink Diet
Coke, but I still maintain that Coke Light -- and Coke Zero which I believe to
be the same formula -- is gross.)

~~~
ValentineC
> _I no longer drink Diet Coke, but I still maintain that Coke Light -- and
> Coke Zero which I believe to be the same formula -- is gross._

Here, we have Coke Light, and Coke No Sugar (formerly known as Zero). Coke
Light probably tastes similar to Diet Coke, while Coke No Sugar has sucralose
instead of aspartame to make it taste closer to regular sugar/HFCS Coke.

~~~
kgwgk
It seems “No Sugar” (which I just heard of for the first time) is supposed to
replace Zero but it’s not quite the same. (Anyway, even the “same” type of
Coke is not the same across markets and if I remember correctly the Zero brand
has been used for quite different products).

[https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/coke-no-
suga...](https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/coke-no-sugar-is-
supposed-to-be-replacing-coke-zero-but-australians-arent-playing-along/news-
story/554d56b24aa232767dd62a3f07dfb7b0)

Edit: in which market do you say sucralose being used in “no sugar” coke? I
can’t find any reference other than to “diet coke with splenda” (a brand of
sucralose, which is used in combination with aspartame in that “diet” coke).

~~~
ValentineC
> _in which market do you say sucralose being used in “no sugar” coke?_

That would be Singapore. Here's a hotlink to an ingredient label images from
one of our online supermarkets:

[http://laz-img-sg.alicdn.com/p/54a80f275b284804aa4000e9fa899...](http://laz-
img-sg.alicdn.com/p/54a80f275b284804aa4000e9fa8999be.jpg_2200x2200q80.jpg)

(original page: [https://www.lazada.sg/products/coca-cola-zero-
sugar-i3011107...](https://www.lazada.sg/products/coca-cola-zero-
sugar-i301110775-s527092628.html))

I used to remember aspartame being present in Coke Zero, so Coke No Sugar
(which seems to be marketed interchangeably as Coke Zero Sugar in this case)
could actually be a new formula.

~~~
kgwgk
Interesting, thanks.

The zero brand seems to have been retired, and both "no sugar" and "light" use
sucralose + acesulfame-K as sweetener (that's also the case for the US "diet
coke with splenda” I mentioned, I mistakenly said it contains aspartame).

[https://www.coca-cola.com.sg/brands/coca-cola/coca-cola-
no-s...](https://www.coca-cola.com.sg/brands/coca-cola/coca-cola-no-sugar)

It seems, however, that in other countries both "no sugar" and "diet" contain
aspartame + acesulfame-K (and cyclamate in some cases, but it's forbidden in
some countries).

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blagswod
Reading the title of this article, I immediately thought of William S. Gosset,
"The Guinness Brewer Who Revolutionized Statistics", earlier in the century. I
am sure there are even older examples.

[https://priceonomics.com/the-guinness-brewer-who-
revolutioni...](https://priceonomics.com/the-guinness-brewer-who-
revolutionized-statistics/)

~~~
jhbadger
When I visited the Guinness Brewery in Dublin a few years ago, I was pleased
to note that they have a plaque honoring Gosset/"Student".

~~~
blagswod
If I ever get to Dublin I want to see Hamilton's quaternion plaque on Brougham
Bridge.

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charlysl
No reference to the " The Lady Tasting Tea: How Statistics Revolutionized
Science in the Twentieth Century"?

~~~
dhhdhdsbdb
this is the book that introduced me to this origin story! It's a very well
written, and short, book. Highly recommend.

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mxwsn
Just to work out the odds, it's not 2^-8 since she knew there were four of
each type of tea. 1 in 70 = 8 choose 4, which one can mental math as 8!/(4!
_4!) = 8_ 7 _6_ 5/4! = (8/(4 _2))_ 7 _(6 /3)_5*1 = 70.

My asterisks got formatted :( still works though

~~~
hooloovoo_zoo
According to the story she chose after each cup, not at the end (so it's
harder for her to make use of the 4-4 information); therefore, the odds
calculation is not so straightforward right?

~~~
max_likelihood
I was thinking the same thing! I think those would be her odds if she were
permitted to go back and change her mind about which cups of tea had milk
first. If she said the first 4 cups were milk first with some confidence, but
on the fifth cup was absolutely certain it was milk first, she would have to
go back and change a previous evaluation (because she knows there can be only
4). But because they were presented one at a time, and Bristol made her
determination up front. It's basically a series of independent Bernoulli
trials (i.e. Binomial distribution). So, assuming she had a 50% chance of
guessing correctly, the probability would be (8 choose 4) * (1/2)^8.

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lproven
But would this provide good or bad input noise for a atomic vector plotter?
One might get very low levels of improbability...

