
Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus - afkqs
https://www.france24.com/en/20200707-brazil-s-president-bolsonaro-tests-positive-for-coronavirus
======
rafaelturk
Brazilian here: Given the insane number of venues and public events that he
was attending or hosting I am actually surprised it took this far for him to
get the virus.

~~~
pucallpa
i wonder if he nows thinks is a "little flu"

~~~
thepangolino
He definitely seems to be handling it quite alright.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mG0WaCmO56E](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mG0WaCmO56E)

~~~
EForEndeavour
So did Boris Johnson, who announced his positive test on March 27 in a Twitter
video which showed him perfectly lucid and without noticeable symptoms [1]. He
posted regular video updates, appearing quite healthy in all of them, but his
condition suddenly worsened on April 6, a full 10 days after his initial
announcement video [2].

This is anecdata, of course, but Bolsonaro is 65, a full 9 years older than
Johnson, so he's by no means in the clear.

[1]
[https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1243496858095411200](https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1243496858095411200)

[2] [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/timeline-
boris...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/timeline-boris-
johnson-and-coronavirus)

~~~
SwiftyBug
Boris Johnson is 9 years younger than Bolsonaro? He sure looks rough.

------
verganileonardo
Given how Bolsonaro was ignoring the pandemic, I believe that if we used
contact tracing, we would probably find that Bolsonaro is the biggest single
spreader of COVID-19 in Brazil.

~~~
coliveira
He was one of the first to bring COVID-19 to Brazil in a visit to the US in
March. So one can truly say that he has spread the virus to millions.

~~~
trhway
wouldn't it mean a 3+ month incubation period?

When the government is AWOL, M16 as a tool to "encourage" people to wear masks
:

[https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/13/americas/brazil-rio-favela-
co...](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/13/americas/brazil-rio-favela-coronavirus-
care/index.html)

"Young dealers, not state medical personnel, are the ones encouraging measures
against coronavirus in the favela."

It is quite notable that the 3 worst hit countries - US, Brazil, Russia - are
lead by the populist regimes, ie. governments using propaganda as the main
tool which is naturally not an effective tool against an infectious virus. As
the saying goes "these days in Russia when people die it is from pneumonia,
and when people recover it is from coronavirus" (in Russia there is a criminal
penalty specifically for coronavirus misinformation, which basically means any
mismatch with the official info)

~~~
schmichael
I believe they're referring to his aides that contracted the virus in March,
not the President himself.

------
kick
There's no possible way this is going to lead to a good discussion when any
sensible person will say "Hope he dies" or similar, which is unfortunate
because it's such an interesting thing.

My only thought that has much public value is that the timing of the US
President's sudden and strange willingness to wear a mask after mocking them
for so long looks suspicious under this light.

~~~
clairity
there's almost no intellectual curiosity and open-mindedness exhibited in any
of these covid-related threads, so they should be flagged according to the
site guidelines.

fear manifests irrationally when control is beyond reach, including wishing
the death of someone they don't know other than via press snippets (which is
not to say bolsonaro is a saint, but most of us in the US know next to nothing
about him except "bad").

driven by fear and the resultant impulse to control, _a priori_ arguments are
made for all sorts of interventions, because it's so hard to accept that the
most effective, balanced measure is simply to distance a bit from the less-
acquainted, and when we can't, wear a mask.

~~~
kick
_fear manifests irrationally when control is beyond reach, including wishing
the death of someone they don 't know other than via press snippets (which is
not to say bolsonaro is a saint, but most of us in the US know next to nothing
about him except "bad")._

This is a terrible viewpoint: it's not difficult _at all_ to find out
Bolsonaro's viewpoints and actions. We don't live in the 1950s any longer:
politicians broadcast their every move over the network, and through every
light you can look at him, Bolsonaro has been terrible for his country; under
any sensible light, he's also a terrible human being. Just look at the things
he's said, you don't need to restrict what you know to "press snippets."

~~~
clairity
yes, but that requires some level of interest in, and active search for,
information about bolsonaro. how many americans other than folks with
connections to brazil (or thereabouts) would that be? relatively few, i'd
wager.

wishing death without understanding is itself terrible, tyrannical actually.
most americans don't have, or wish to seek, the context to make any definitive
claims about a stranger, especially concerning death.

~~~
mercer
> yes, but that requires some level of interest in, and active search for,
> information about bolsonaro. how many americans other than folks with
> connections to brazil (or thereabouts) would that be? relatively few, i'd
> wager.

Sure, but I'd wager most of the HN crowd knows enough to know that he's a
piece of shit. I most certainly feel like it'd be wonderful and poetic if he
died to Covid!

Also what's the point of your comment other than expressing some weird kind of
arrogance?

------
fredley
He will probably (according to mortality rates) survive, and prove himself
right that he could shrug it off. If he doesn't, it doesn't matter that he was
wrong, because he won't be in a position to care.

~~~
loopz
Which will be our fate following such leaders.

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A4ET8a8uTh0
It is news, but as other have noted it is not surprising given Bolsanaro's
public stance. Frankly, I am more surprised US upper echelon seems largely
unscathed at the moment.

~~~
jayrot
Trump gets tested every day. Every person he is in contact with is testing
before being given an audience. He knows how it works but it seems like he
just DGAF about everyone else.

~~~
mercer
Yeah, Trump strikes me as the kind of person who would protect himself
diligently regardless of what his public stance might be.

I might be wrong about this, but isn't he also known to be somewhat of a
'clean freak'?

~~~
clairity
yes, trump's moral compass only points one way, and that's toward himself.

it's dismaying that supporters fervently listen to what he says, not what he
does.

------
arto
Reuters source: [https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-
brazil...](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-
brazil/brazil-president-bolsonaro-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-
idUSKBN2481EK)

------
NikolaeVarius
I'm surprised he even got tested considering he called it the "little flu"

------
anonms-coward
What would happen if Bolsanaro doesn't survive? How does succession works in
Brazil. Is the next person in line more or less rational than Bolsanaro. Also
can it end up leading Brazil further to the right due to sympathy votes? Or
will it make people realise his incompetence if something happens to him.

~~~
caiobegotti
The vice-president takes office. He's a retired Army General as crazy as
Bolsonaro regarding social values etc but in multiple times he talked much
more reasonably than the actual president about sensitive topics and he seems
actually smarter, at least. He almost makes us believe he's better than the
president but I think it's just a "vice-president" façade. If he also dies
testing positive, then the president of the chamber of deputies takes office.
If he dies, the president of the senate takes office. If he dies then the
president of the supreme court takes office. I said all that assuming they are
males because they are as of today (we had female supreme court presidents in
the past though).

~~~
jayrot
Super interesting that a member of the supreme court is in line for
succession. It's not the worst idea. Say what you want about various members
of the SCOTUS and their individual values -- but every single one of them at
least has a sense of logic and rationality by nature of their work.

~~~
caiobegotti
Not only that but the president of the supreme court changes every 2 years and
it's always a very predictable election with the oldest member taking office
unless the person has always done so in the past (and the whole process
restarts after the last one, if they ever live enough as we have 10+1 justices
and they are also required to retire after they are 75).

------
brink
Not to be insensitive, but what's the death rate for healthy individuals in
his age range? Next to zero? Italy reported that 99% of those who died from
Corona had other health issues.[1] In my county (county, not country) it was
reported that 99.4% of our Covid cases have recovered, and that was just the
cases that were tracked. Yes, the vulnerable should be taken care of, but
legitimately asking - why is there still hysteria over this?

[1]: [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-
tho...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-
died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says)

~~~
midrus
Because that 1% of people are lives that still matter??? WTF... I can't
believe this.

~~~
gizmo
We didn't lock down for the Hong Kong flu or similar pandemics, because the
damage caused by a lockdown is immense. Health damage caused by delayed cancer
screenings and organ transplants. Psychological damage caused by lockdown and
unemployment. Unbelievable economic damage. How to respond to a pandemic is a
trade-off.

People die in traffic accidents every day. Do we set a nation-wide speed limit
of 5 MPH? No. Of course not. We accept that the benefit of travel are worth
it, and we strive to make travel safer because every death is a tragedy.
That's a balanced approach. For mild pandemics we should also seek such a
balanced approach where we protect the old and the vulnerable and let
everybody else live life as normal.

~~~
SomeoneFromCA
Hong Kong flu was significantly less deadly than Covid in United states,
perhaps 3 to 10 times. NYC death rate is at least .2% which would translate to
600 000 death across the US, and that is a very rough estimate. Even more
importantly without lockdowns you'd get even worse clusterhell in the
hospitals, which would have to do triage between neverneding stream of Covid
patients and "normal" patients, who need an urgent surgery, and that would
lead to enormous death rate rise so your argument is backwards actually.

~~~
gizmo
At least a million people died of the Hong Kong flu. Much more as a percentage
of the world population. And Covid19 doesn't seem to take hold anywhere in the
pacific rim, regardless of policy. Lockdown or not, masks or not, good or bad
hospitals, it doesn't matter. None of the countries in the rim got hit hard.
This tells us it's all about herd immunity, and about getting there with as
few casualties as possible.

NYC locked down after peak infection; completely pointless. If you're going to
lock down you have to do it way early, before the virus has spread everywhere.
Sweden didn't lock down. Did we see uncontrolled spread there? Nope. The virus
came and petered out after infecting a critical mass of people.

The NYC death rate would never hold over the entire US because a large part of
it was the result of disastrous policy of sending covid patients to care
homes, and an aggressive venting policy that killed many. Bear in mind that
covid19 is a hotspot disease and some parts of the world are always going to
get hit much worse than other parts of the world. Extrapolating from outlier
hotspots is bad science.

~~~
SomeoneFromCA
I am not talking about whole world; I was talking in particular about US. It
is still unclear about the final death tall of Covid, but it clearly is going
to be close to a million, perhaps 2 or so. You operate with a very odd
definition of Pacfifc Rim btw, USA, Canada, Mexico, Equador were all hit badly
- all of them are countries of pacific rim.

Sweden is actually an excellent example of a bad policy. Economically doing as
bad as their neighbors, and had enormous death toll compared to Norway,
Germany, Iceland, Denmark and Finland, countries (esp. Norway) with similar
culture and attitudes. Also we are in summer now, and the virus may well come
back and hit Sweden with a lot bigger force, just because so much more of it
there.

Not locking down during the Hong Kong flu was by the way a terrible decision.
Had they introduced at least some measures, such masks and limited lockdowns
the number of dead would have been much lower.

I by the way divided NY rate by 3, I counted as if all of NYC had acquired the
disease. So no, .2% is reasonable expectaion, and .1% of total population of
will clearly be reached within several months, it is already halfway there.

~~~
gizmo
Pacific Rim definition I use: [https://www.yourdictionary.com/pacific-
rim](https://www.yourdictionary.com/pacific-rim). I'm not talking about the
Americas.

Sweden did a lot better in Q1. It was the only western European country with
positive growth, and it vastly outperformed everybody else. I expect they'll
also outperform the rest of Europe in subsequent quarters, but this will
remain to be seen. The death toll in Sweden is completely in line with its
neighbors. This is evident when you look at All Cause Mortality. Their
definition of "with covid" deaths is far more generous than their neighbors,
so comparing the numbers from worldometers is not apples-to-apples.

My analysis suggests Sweden is very close to herd immunity, and they won't
have a second wave. The countries that haven't reached herd immunity yet can
choose between locking down in perpetuity or dragging out the process for no
gain. There is no vaccin and the virus can't be contained or exterminated.
People in the west won't put up with a totalitarian China style lockdown.

The research on mask effectiveness is still very contradictory. The health
organizations of Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland all claims masks don't
work, as did the CDC and WHO. Research clearly indicates some viral load is
blocked by masks, but there aren't any studies that connect mask use with
actual infection rates. We don't even know to what degree asymptomatic
infections are a thing. I suspect a large percentage of infections happen
because symptomatic people refuse to stay home, and anecdotal evidence from
superspreading events supports this.

Deaths in the US are trending down and will continue to trend down in 95% of
counties. There will be hotspots here and there in places that didn't get hit
in the last few months, but there won't be a second wave. You see deaths
doubling from here, I think that's exceedingly unlikely.

~~~
SomeoneFromCA
I do not operate with "all cause mortality". I look at the excess death in
April May, and in Sweden is so much higher it is not a serious conversation to
even dispute that.

~~~
gizmo
Epidemiologists look at annual deaths cumulative from the start of the flu
season, exactly because we care about total mortality and not about noisy
spikes in the data. And that picture looks completely different:
[https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcTV1OmWsAE3kAs?format=jpg&name=...](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcTV1OmWsAE3kAs?format=jpg&name=large)

Remember that 2018 and 2019 were unusually mild flu seasons, so many people
had already outlived their actuarial life expectancy when covid hit.

~~~
SomeoneFromCA
I do not play in creative accounting. There is a visible by naked eye large
bulge of excess death in April and May in Sweden, which exctly equal to number
of counted covid deaths, and same for Norway - a much smaller bulge, exactly
equal to number of death from Covid. What you are engaging in is exactly kind
of accounting caused credit crunch in 2008.

