
A Drop-In Solution for Replacing Human Labor? Kawada’s Nextage Robot - JDulin
http://singularityhub.com/2011/12/09/a-drop-in-solution-for-replacing-human-labor-kawadas-nextage-robot/
======
FD3SA
This seems to be a transition stage for fine motor skill robots with advanced
object recognition capabilities. A few more iterations will surely make the
human counterparts obsolete, as demonstrated by the rapid automation of
manufacturing giants such as FOXCONN.

~~~
JDulin
The most exciting part is that once a few large companies like FOXCONN make a
commitment to robotic manufacturing, we may be able to see the exponential
decreases in robot costs we have been waiting for as they want cheaper sensors
and actuators in larger quantities. Robotics have been (and are) incredibly
expensive, but but we are reaching a point where the price will begin to
plummet.

~~~
dangrossman
This doesn't excite me, it scares me. A rapid transition to robotic
manufacturing could mean a very rough time for an entire generation of human
workers.

~~~
marcf
Very cheap robotics will decimate China's low skilled labor force.

~~~
kiba
And who will supposedly buy all these good those factories make? The 1%ers?

Those factories only exists if they have a market for the goods they produce.

~~~
gwern
> And who will supposedly buy all these good those factories make? The 1%ers?

Yeah, pretty much. Human wants are unlimited. (To quote Boethius, "If free-
handed Plenty should dispense riches from her cornucopia as plentiful as the
sands cast up by the storm-wracked sea, or as the stars that shine in heaven -
men still would not stop their miserable complaints.")

Have you read Chase's 'Plutonomy' papers from a few years ago? Fearsome
reading.

~~~
confluence
You mean Citigroup's Plutonomy investor Memo:

[http://www.principiadiscordia.com/forum/index.php?topic=2512...](http://www.principiadiscordia.com/forum/index.php?topic=25129.0)

It's not that fearsome.

Over time it becomes easier to give more value to more people thanks to
progress in technology and greater amounts of money/economic wealth sloshing
around.

The people who do something of value, or capture it, derive a huge surplus
from the leverage provided by what's out there right now ( billions of people,
trillions of dollars )

You can see the difference between Nikola Tesla - an absolute genius - who
created the basis for all modern technology/progress and Google.

Even with all the value he created, he couldn't really derive that much
personal benefit, as the utility of his inventions were low before network
effects set in and there were fewer people with less disposable income to
spend money on his inventions. He also got screwed but that's another story.

Compared to Google ( very smart guys yes, geniuses perhaps ) which started
less than 14 years ago and has become one of the largest and most profitable
companies in the world.

Lady Gaga ( 4 years ) vs. Madonna ( 40 years ) for huge success.

Avatar ( 3 billion ) vs. Jaws ( .5 billion )

You catch my drift. Feedback loops are getting larger and faster - it's like
nothing stands still anymore.

But society is getting better.

------
arkitaip
At ~$100,000 USD this will simply not replace dirt cheap labor in developing
countries for decades to come.

~~~
ken
Maybe not, but it could replace low-wage jobs in developed countries.

Imagine a 24-hour fast-food restaurant that employs several people at minimum
wage. A robot could work all 3 shifts around the clock nonstop, not require
much space, and be "trained" in new types of food preparation with an
instantaneous software upgrade.

My economics professor once said he'd heard that if minimum wage got up to
$20/hour, it would be cheaper for McD's to use robots. This is changing the
other side of the equation.

~~~
repsilat
Minimum wage in Australia is $15.51/hour + 9% superannuation contribution.
This comes out to $16.91/hour or USD17.23/hour. If these things can work 24/7
with the same productivity of a worker on minimum wage they'll pay themselves
off in eight months (plus/minus other costs associated with employees and
these machines).

------
Tharkun
is this something we should worry about? If we, as a civilisation (forget
countries for a second) hypothetically replace all labourers by robots, then
what? Is it any different from using cheap overseas labour? Will we be able to
find something else to do for these people? Should we turn to communism in the
long term, if the only 'working' people are software&robotics engineers? We
obviously can't all be tech workers, can we? And would that even be useful?

~~~
_Y_
There will always be unknown things and things to achieve! There is still
nuclear fusion, computer brain interface, genetic engineering, inhabiting
other planets. Figuring out how universe works, if there are other realities,
etc.

My personal thoughts are that communism is merely the next step after
capitalism (after discovering fusion and fabricating nanotechnology), however
I don't think/hope it will play out as it had before in Russia.

~~~
HeyLaughingBoy
Why do you think that?

------
bitsweet
_Automation poses a real threat to the factory worker_

Correction: Automation poses a real threat to everyone

~~~
rhino42
Correction: automation possess a threat to those who do not work principally
with their mind. Knowledge workers won't be in danger of marginalization in
the near future

~~~
_Y_
Correction: automation can replace doctors and researchers (which principally
work with their mind).

[http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/04/090402-robot...](http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/04/090402-robot-
scientists.html) <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/131697.stm>

