
The population of Africa will more than triple by the end of this century - bookofjoe
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/06/22/the-un-revises-down-its-population-forecasts
======
youeeeeeediot
According to OECD DAC statistics, since aid began in the 1960s donors have
given a grand total of $502 billion to sub-Saharan Africa, which is worth
about $866 billion in today's prices.

Aid has only made things worse for Africa and the world as a whole.

~~~
malandrew
“The lessons of history, confirmed by the evidence immediately before me, show
conclusively that continued dependence upon relief induces a spiritual and
moral disintegration fundamentally destructive to the national fiber. To dole
out relief in this way is to administer a narcotic, a subtle destroyer of the
human spirit. It is inimical to the dictates of sound policy. It is in
violation of the traditions of America.” – FDR

I would say that FDR's observation applies as much to Africa or any other
country as it does to America.

Not to say all aid it bad, but the world has been pretty indiscriminate in how
it doles out aid to Africa and done a terrible job of observing second and
third order effects and consequences that undermine the benefits of aid.

~~~
ralusek
The irony of FDR saying that, while having been responsible for creating an
American welfare state that suffers from precisely the same pathology.

~~~
malandrew
This is one of the reasons I like to share this quote. Even the godfather of
the welfare state was aware of the negative consequences of sustained welfare.
That's an order of magnitude greater awareness of the unintended consequences
of these policies that people pushing these policies today understand. It's
good to show them that even their welfare state idol was aware that welfare is
not some unassailable panacea.

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bookofjoe
[https://www.outline.com/3S8f9v](https://www.outline.com/3S8f9v) Note: scroll
to see the graph up top in its entirety, which illustrates the fact in the
headline.

------
Merrill
Can Africa produce enough calories of food to sustain a tripled population?

~~~
hackeraccount
Do they need to? If they make enough money they can just buy the food they
need - and more stuff besides.

~~~
reustle
But that food has to come from somewhere, and the scale at which we do farming
currently is already taking its toll on the environment.

~~~
malandrew
If the scale at which we do farming is taking its toll on the environment at
our level of productivity and knowledge, I can only imagine that less
productive and less knowledgeable countries will have a much larger negative
impact on the environment.

The countries they would buy food from are probably in a much better position
to mitigate the harmful effects of industrialized farming. The question is
whether this can be done at a price point that is affordable for Africa.

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oh_goodie
I mean, gee.

What can one say? Be afraid, be very afraid? Is this supposed to be alarming?

Look at it from this perspective. The high school principal walks into your
math class, and points out six or seven students, and says "These students
will all produce 15 children a piece!"

Okay, fortune teller. I guess _I_ have to do something about that? Maybe...
tell them to wear condoms? Yeah, that works. Oh, right. Abstinence only birth
control. Even better.

Or... Is it not bout the procreation, and the abortion, and the safe sex, and
the birth control? What is this about?

Is it about the single child policies that China implemented? Is about the
male baby bias that produced skewed demographics in China, decades later?

Maybe, it's that the jungle and the endangered species are all doomed, and
that one giant continent may support all those people, but only through
horrendous pollution and environmental damage. Or maybe advanced technology
will enable new scales of population growth.

What should one say to this? Not everyone is going to be a millionaire? Famine
might stifle the whole thing, producing horrible realities on the ground?

It may very well be that live births will produce an effective explosion of
recorded names, brith certificates might triple count of the the standing
population, but how long they last might produce similarly grim statistics to
match, and like Rwanda, grim might be something of an understatement.

I mean, the report might be right. Things may happen on that continent, and it
may be a train wreck. But for all the predictions, no suggested intervention.
We're just going to watch it happen, so I guess someone deserves a pat on the
back for calling it now, but it's useless information until events transpire,
and even then, all we get is an "I told you so."

Yipee!

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AtlasBarfed
Environmental impact of population is determined by per capital resource use.

What is most dangerous about the future isn't population size, itstge three
billion Indians and Chinese approaching United States resource use per
capital.

