
Ancient trash heaps reveal the Plague of Justinian’s economic toll - diodorus
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/07/ancient-trash-heaps-reveal-the-plague-of-justinians-economic-toll/
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torusenthusiast
The more I learn about the Plague of Justinian the happier I am that our
current plague is relatively "mild". I am also amazed how much of an impact
these kinds of things can have on the world.

I wonder what the long term fallout of the current situation will be (will
there be a large one?). Death tolls are nowhere near past plagues, but the
lockdowns have had a large economic impact for some countries. It's an
interesting thought experiment, what do people here think?

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pasabagi
I remember thinking when coronavirus was a new thing that it was an almost
perfect mix of harmless and deadly, harmless enough that most people would
carry it asymptomatically, deadly enough that it would reliably kill the
vulnerable.

I figured that something like bubonic plague, which is absolutely lethal in
comparison, wouldn't get very far against modern surveillance tactics and
medical practices.

Since then, my estimations of our ability to deal with pandemics has taken a
few hard knocks. It seems to me that even a comparatively nasty disease, with
correspondingly obvious symptoms would probably be able to reach pandemic
status, just because so many countries are a chaotic mess.

Obviously, even with a South Korea level competent response, I guess it's
possible to have a disease that stays asymptomatic but remains contagious,
then kills a large number of carriers after some length of time. Doesn't seem
likely though - contagion more or less involves some kind of symptom
(sneezing, coughing, etc) and it's hard to imagine a body developing a really
high viral load or bacterial population without becoming feverish.

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wahern
> Doesn't seem likely though - contagion more or less involves some kind of
> symptom (sneezing, coughing, etc) and it's hard to imagine a body developing
> a really high viral load or bacterial population without becoming feverish.

AFAIU, the profile depends on the class of virus, though obviously not all
hosts behave similarly. Evolutionary strategies differ.

From the MIT COVID-19 page
([https://medical.mit.edu/faqs/COVID-19](https://medical.mit.edu/faqs/COVID-19)):

> evidence indicates that people who are infected with 2019-nCoV may be at
> their most contagious in the 48–72 hours before symptoms are noticeable. In
> addition, it is now estimated that up to 25 percent of infected individuals
> remain asymptomatic and may unwittingly infect others.

Knowing what we know now about significant aerosol transmission from merely
speaking, it should be obvious now that coughing or sneezing isn't a
prerequisite for highly contagious respiratory viruses. It should have been
obvious _before_ as we already knew that viral host reservoirs often remain
asymptomatic. Bats, for example, are common reservoirs for respiratory viruses
because a) they roost in dense groups, b) have strong selective pressure for
consistently high function (flight is exhausting), and c) they've evolved
immune systems that can handle a high viral load (a consequence of (a) and
(b)), so don't often exhibit symptoms. I would presume many bird species make
good reservoirs for similar reasons, though birds aren't mammals, which might
complicate jumping to humans.

IIRC, a friend of mine, who had been researching rhinoviruses for several
years at the time, explained to me that the coughing and sneezing fits from
some types of cold viruses are caused by viral fragments rather than primary
infection, in such cases symptoms peak at the tail-end of infection as
fragments build up, and the fits might even be _incidental_ / _accidental_
from an evolutionary perspective. Some human cold viruses are specialized to
infect children, who usually exhibit no symptoms or, at worst, a runny nose
(again, latter might be incidental). Asymptomatic respiratory infections run
rampant among children.

~~~
pasabagi
That's pretty scary. An interesting thought experiment: given a disease that
was asymptomatic but after some time, deadly, do you think it would be
possible to contain given current technology/social situation?

An interesting aside: I just looked it up, and it turns out that quarantine
predated the germ theory of disease by many centuries. It's interesting that
people can come up with effective strategies for defence against something
that they both have no treatment for, and no real understanding of.

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Avicebron
I'm currently listening to the "The History of Byzantium" podcast. I highly
recommend it to anyone who enjoys deep dives into history as much as I do.

~~~
Fiveplus
Coming from someone whose goto history podcast is Dan Carlin's Hardcore
History, I appreciate you for the suggestion!

~~~
frandroid
If you're not already listening to the Revolutions Podcast, treat yourself...
(You can skip the American and maybe British "revolution", and start at the
French Revolution if you're not sure this is for you)

[https://thehistoryofrome.typepad.com/revolutions_podcast/](https://thehistoryofrome.typepad.com/revolutions_podcast/)

~~~
stefco_
The Russian Revolution episodes are truly fascinating. The 1905 section feels
particularly relevant to recent American history.

~~~
frandroid
I'm still working my way through Mexico! :) I'm glad he's taking a break so I
can hopefully catch up before he gets back...

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lps41
On a similar note:

The period leading up to the Black Death in Europe was a warmer climate than
usual, allowing agriculture to expand and populations to explode.
Deforestation was widespread as agriculture expanded.

There is a theory that the immense depopulation caused by the Black Death also
allowed significant reforestation to occur in Europe, which in turn led to
increased carbon capture from the atmosphere, and perhaps helped cause the
Little Ice Age that began in the 1500’s.

[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4755328.stm](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4755328.stm)

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dan-robertson
There’s a similar theory based on reforestation of land that was previously
cultivated by the Mayans after their population collapse.

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pfdietz
At least we have adequate records about that time. Unlike, say, the Late
Bronze Age Collapse.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Bronze_Age_collapse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Bronze_Age_collapse)

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rorykoehler
The youtube algo is strong. This is the second time I've seen this topic
mentioned today after watching a youtube recommended video about it earlier
this week.

~~~
pfdietz
This book is fun, although I'm not really convinced of his theory.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1177_B.C.:_The_Year_Civilizati...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1177_B.C.:_The_Year_Civilization_Collapsed)

~~~
Cactus2018
One of the author's hour long lectures on youtube

1177 BC: The Year Civilization Collapsed (Eric Cline, PhD)

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRcu-
ysocX4](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRcu-ysocX4)

