
How Bitcoin Compares to History's Big Bubbles - akrymski
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-17/did-bitcoin-just-burst-how-it-compares-to-history-s-big-bubbles
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akrymski
Millions of people in developing nations bought into the “reliable store of
value” philosophy and bought bitcoins, whilst the early adopters and whales
have profited. At what point does this equate to what Madoff has done? When
they’ve lost all their savings?

~~~
cm2187
Does anyone really believe it is a _reliable_ store of value? Surely the
violent price swings and numerous scandals related to dodgy exchanges are hard
to not notice. I assume they either perceive the risk as the cost of taking
money out of the country or ignore it out of pure greed. Madoff disguised
himself as a wise asset manager. I don't think bitcoin is disguising itself
into anything else than a speculative product.

~~~
akrymski
Investing with Madoff was also a speculative endeavour. He never guaranteed
anything.

People invested with Madoff hoping they'd make money. People invest in BTC
hoping they'd make money. Some people may have even pulled their money from
Madoff prior to collapse and made a killing. As some did with BTC.

The difference is Madoff knew the people he stole from, and they knew Madoff.
BTC sellers can't put a face to the wallets buying their coins.

~~~
repomies691
> BTC sellers can't put a face to the wallets buying their coins.

I have often bought and sold BTC to/from a friend I know.

> People invested with Madoff hoping they'd make money. People invest in BTC
> hoping they'd make money.

Madoff advertised a legal investing business, while he was actually running a
ponzi scheme and didn't invest anything. Bitcoin is a transparent open-source
system that anyone can inspect very thoroughly how it works. The two cases
don't have much to do with each other.

~~~
akrymski
Transparent? Does everyone know who the handful of individuals are that hold
90+% of all coins? Do they report their transactions to the SEC? Do they
manipulate or distort the market? Do they advertise and promote securities
without retail investors knowing about it?

Wolf of Wall Street was also pedalling stocks that people bought at their own
risk. This is now illegal, because it leads to the same price dynamics as a
ponzi scheme or a speculative bubble. HFT firms manipulating the market with
large sums - also illegal. To think that the crypto market has no insiders is
very naive imo

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dimillian
You're all talking in the past tense like it's done. It's already recovering
right now, the US market will wake up, and it'll be back on track. Every
January is the same story for 4 years now. This thing will hit far far far up
before really crashing down. Bonus if some coin can be adopted as a reliable
Digital currency for buying and selling stuff.

~~~
rtkwe
What are you seeing as a recovery? It's had tiny upticks back up like what's
happening this morning many many times during the slide since early December.

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infinity0
Comparison my ass, the article name-drops 3 historical events and goes no
further to do an actual comparison.

~~~
mikkom
You probably missed this picture so I'll just post a link

[https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iubORDgEzeo...](https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iubORDgEzeoo/v5/-1x-1.png)

~~~
chrisco255
Yeah useless statistics overlaid on top of each other. You could just as
easily overlay Amazon's stock price in 1998 from the perspective of 2001.
Totally useless uncorrelated figures arbitrarily plucked out to make a
correlation seem natural.

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mrarjen
I just hope Bitcoin gets phased out to make way for a more stable front runner
of cryptocurrency.

~~~
repomies691
Or maybe bitcoin becomes more stable after this crash?

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mtgx
The FUD is strong with Bloomberg. Are we really going to see this type of
posts every time there's a 50%-70% crash in prices? That chart is also
extremely misleading.

~~~
frgtpsswrdlame
>Are we really going to see this type of posts every time there's a 50%-70%
crash in prices?

Lol. Yes, duh. A popular new asset which had gone to the moon and received all
sorts of financial press buzz and was even receiving coverage _inside_
financial companies, etc. falls back to earth and falls hard. Of course it's
going to be covered this way by the press. Besides when you say "every time"
how many more times are you expecting Bitcoin to crash? At a certain point
doesn't it stop being an asset and start being a gamble?

~~~
serg_chernata
This "crashed" term must mean different things to different people. Stop
looking at daily charts, zoom out.

~~~
imtringued
Bitcoin is 50% down from it's 20k peak a month ago.

[https://imgur.com/tCAXmKt](https://imgur.com/tCAXmKt)

If that isn't a crash then what is?

~~~
charlesdm
It's also up around a 1000% since the start of 2017. If that isn't a healthy
correction, what is?

~~~
SideburnsOfDoom
A 1000% up in a year is IMHO not a sign of health.

~~~
chrisco255
For a startup financial technology, not bad at all.

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squeeeeeeeeeee
Someone please explain to me why is this kind of thing on HN? This place is
becoming more Reddit-like by the day. The problem? You only have one
subreddit, the main one. Could we please stop filling it with garbage like
this? Is HN really a place for dumping random people's opinions on investment
opportunities?

