
The reality of AR/VR business models - chermanowicz
http://techcrunch.com/2016/04/05/the-reality-of-arvr-business-models/?ncid=rss&cps=gravity_1462_8745034790021005438
======
btown
Just in case you think the article wasn't expansive enough in the
possibilities for AR/VR business models, I'll just leave this here:
[http://www.varcrypt.com/info/](http://www.varcrypt.com/info/)

> VARcrypt is the world's first blockchain content distribution platform
> designed specifically for VR (Virtual Reality) and AR (Augmented Reality)
> content. VARcrypt derives its name from a combination of both VR (Virtual
> Reality) and AR (Augmented Reality) resulting in the combination of VAR
> which when mixed with a cryptographic blockchain content distribution and
> payment processing protocol combines to create VARcrypt. VARcrypt's
> blockchain will be powered by its own proprietary cryptocurrency, VARcoin.
> VARcoin will become its own medium of exchange for goods and services within
> the VARcrypt blockchain universe and beyond.

> The future of media will not be either VR or AR, it will be both, it will be
> VAR and that future will be brought to you by VARcrypt. VARcrypt is a place
> for artists, a place for content, a place for the future, because at
> VARcrypt we are breaking everything.

Sometimes I just love the startup world.

~~~
josephpmay
This is parody, right?

~~~
golergka
> VARcrypt is a place for artists, a place for content, a place for the
> future, because at VARcrypt we are breaking everything.

It has to be.

------
kriro
I think the enterprise chunk is too small in the info graphic. I envision a
pretty huge market, especially for AR. There are very few AR applications that
seem viable from a business model POV right now. The ones that are pretty easy
to spot tend to be in the enterprise world. It seems like a very valuable
technology along the entire supply chain from R&D (for building machines,
automobiles etc.) to distribution (try on this dress in AR = less returns =
higher margins; we can offer this kitchen sink service online now with AR
instructions). AR is in fact already used and generating value in some
enterprisy field, specifically marketing (mostly just "ZOMG cool" branding)
and in logistics (dedicated AR glasses for warehousing)

~~~
Natanael_L
AR glasses that understand mirrors and with a good physics engine could do
wonders for the fashion industry.

You could try out clothes and accessories and anything else in front of any
mirror and get incredibly realistic renders of how you'd look. You could even
experiment with different colors trivially. It could even render multiple
alternatives next to each other. And you could be assisted just like normally
by a sales person who can give you personal advice and suggestions.

Just about anything involving design could benefit beyond fashion as well,
like being able to try different colors or other customizations on a car, or
with furniture, etc.

In fact you could even get live remote assistance with this like home
decoration and layouts, getting suggestions with live renders for what to
place where. Or that same service but for gardening.

Then there's IRL MMORPG, LARP:s would never be the same again. Imagine Ingress
with AR.

~~~
adrianN
It's a lot easier to replace the mirror with a screen. You can cram a lot more
CPU power into something the size of a mirror that doesn't have to run on tiny
batteries. The fact that such "mirrors" are not widespread yet indicates that
the tech either isn't there yet or that it's just simpler to try on the dress.

~~~
Natanael_L
You have a screen already, given that we're talking AR glasses. The mirror is
for reducing latency, not screwing up your skin tone, etc.

You only render the particular things to substitute, nothing else is needed.
And it won't get your view angle screwed up, and trivially allows for multiple
people.

------
Animats
_" AR/VR is the fourth major platform shift (after PC, web and mobile)."_

Or maybe VR is just the next 3D TV. Remember 3D TV? 3D TV viewership peaked in
2013. Samsung killed off their entire 3D line in 2016.[1] Some other
manufacturers still make them, but they're not selling.

We've already had AR. It was called "Google Glass".

[1] [http://www.whathifi.com/news/samsung-announces-15-new-tv-
ran...](http://www.whathifi.com/news/samsung-announces-15-new-tv-
ranges-2016-kills-3d)

~~~
dcw303
Yes, 3D TV was a failure, but I still hold out a little hope that someone will
get VR/AR right. Saying that AR has failed in 2016 because Google Glass could
be like saying MP3 players failed because Creative Nomad in early 2001.

Not that it has to be Apple, but someone has to come up with an angle that is
innovative if these technologies are going to make an impact.

That all said and hindsight being 20/20, the thing that 3D TV, AR, and VR have
in common is that it is the collective willpower of the bleeding edge
evangelists alone that is powering discussion. Real tech innovations are
immediately recognized as game changers by the general public.

~~~
reitanqild
Yep, there is a ton of useful stuff you could do with ar/vr.

My wishes:

AR:

Keeping an eye on something while doing something else. Anything from udemy to
a simple timer or a webcam on the delivery dock.

VR:

A wearable replacement for a multiscreen setup. Possibly with a cam in front
so you can adjust translucency to get back at office pranksters the first few
months.

Edit:

Bonus of a easy-to-use VR solution that goes mainstream: work on widescreen on
the train, plane or whatever without nobody nosing into your business (eh, as
long as you stay away from Oculus Facebook:-P )

Already done on AR:

\- temperature and other sensoe overlays

\- escape routes

What I don't need:

\- everything google glass turned out to be it seems.

~~~
Natanael_L
AR can be turned into VR with a plastic cap. Any approach using VR plus
cameras to imitate AR is flawed due to unnecessary latency.

------
ryandamm
Quick caveat, this is written by the same firm (Digi-Capital) that came out
with a totally preposterous estimate (on the high side) for the market
potential and uptake speed of VR.

So, you know, grain of salt; the Digi-Capital numbers were followed by much
more sane (and significantly smaller) numbers from Piper Jaffray and others.
Digi-Capital then revised their numbers so they didn't look like quite such an
outlier.

~~~
mc32
They can't have been as far off as Intel (and HP) were with Itanium. Any year
now...

------
TuringTest
Every time AR is discussed, I link to the CC-BY-NC comic _Vision Machine_.[1]
As all good SF, it describes current trends with a veneer of future
technology; I find that it offers insight on a lot of use cases for AR and VR.

[1] [http://visionmachine.net/](http://visionmachine.net/)

------
arca_vorago
While not specifically about the business model, where I really think that
both will shine is in encouraging a separation of user from chair, getting
them active and possible even turning AR/VR into a fitness movement. I've been
working on the side on a UE4 based game, and as I realize the potential for
it's use in fitness, especially with Vive style roomspace-play, the more I
think it will be a huge industry of VR fitness. Maybe I can ride that wave,
maybe not, but I hope to see it regardless.

~~~
Natanael_L
Competitive puzzle games that require you to do exercises well? "Zombies,
run!" or other zombie games where you have to escape by actually running?

~~~
arca_vorago
More along the lines of virtual bootcamp for a semi-realistic sci-fi sword and
gun play sandbox world.

------
cm2187
I can still think of a few challenges.

First, like the Apple Watch, I do not think that consumers are keen to wear
more objects every day. So this is a first challenge to AR being something we
carry all the day like a mobile. The fact that it looks cool to a few techies
doesn't warrant wide adoption.

Two, as it is, they require a lot of computing power. Computers aren't really
getting any faster. Engraving may get a little thinner but I understand the
physical limits are in sight. Will these things really become so power
efficient that they become portable?

Then you have motion sickness which has more to do with the fact that we do
not move while our eyes are telling us we are moving. This is something
structural to VR. Though this should only apply to non static scenarios. But
if you are sitting and using VR to work on a peripheral screen, if done well
that shouldn't induce motion sickness. I would be tempted to consider the
experience of 3D TVs as a warning.

It's not obvious to me VR will be such a big thing, outside of video games for
a limited time per day.

~~~
majewsky
> So this is a first challenge to AR being something we carry all the day like
> a mobile. The fact that it looks cool to a few techies doesn't warrant wide
> adoption.

This fits with the article hinting at smartphone capabilities being integrated
in AR/VR headsets.

I would like a device that looks like normal glasses but can display images on
the inside of the glasses to create an AR or VR experience when the user
wishes to do so. Like Google Glass, but not as obnoxious. If that thing can
replace my smartphone, sign me up.

(The most important feature would be an easily triggered silent mode where it
does not pop notifications into my eyesight while I'm socializing or
focussing.)

~~~
cm2187
I don't know. I stopped wearing glasses a few years ago and I don't miss them.
It's not just a technological decision.

------
intrasight
The forecast is also leaving out this important application: playing Chevette
Washington looking down upon San Francisco to see the city as it will be
rebuilt by the tech titans mentioned. Honestly, I would pay for that.

~~~
stuxnet79
Incredible that Virtual Light was written more than 20 years ago. How
prescient it was ...

Funny thing with its rising real estate prices and large number of bums (I
hear), San Fran is turning into exactly what Gibson envisioned.

