

What if the Web never happened - Luyt
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=3335

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ralfd
Without the Web:

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bildschirmtext>

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minitel>

"The Minitel is a Videotex online service accessible through the telephone
lines, and is considered one of the world's most successful pre-World Wide Web
online services. It was launched in France in 1982 by the PTT (Poste,
Téléphone et Télécommunications; divided since 1991 between France Télécom and
La Poste). From its early days, users could make online purchases, make train
reservations, check stock prices, search the telephone directory, have a mail
box, and chat in a similar way to that now made possible by the Internet. In
February 2009, France Telecom indicates the Minitel network still has 10
million monthly connections, among which 1 million on the 3611 (directory).
France Telecom is mulling an end of the service in September 2011[1]."

~~~
mikecane
There was also Prestel and Teletext in England. Time, Inc. invested a _ton_ of
money here in a teletext startup. I don't know why they abandoned it but "who
owned the VBI" (vertical blanking interval, which would carry teletext) was an
issue back then too. AT&T also had NAPLPS in the works. Times Mirror and at
least one other company I can't recall (in Florida) had NAPLPS systems up and
going. Time Warner had Qube on cable in Ohio (Columbus?). None of them had the
life or vibrancy or innovation of the BBS subculture.

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michaelpinto
As someone who played with both HyperCard and too many a BBS back in the day I
can tell you that the web was inevitable (see FidoNet). It might have evolved
in half a dozen ways and looked slightly different, but it would have
happened. Also having somewhat survived the dot.com era of the 90s I'd have to
say what really gave the web its power was broadband getting to the masses,
and several industries gave that push.

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FidoNet>

~~~
bane
I was going to say that Gopher would have probably morphed and evolved into
something not too dissimilar to the web we have today -- it had the hyperlink
idea down.

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gopher_(protocol)>

I remember a few graphical BBS systems that also had some of the conceptual
underpinnings of the web today in terms of graphical interfaces.

But I agree, We would have probably ended up with something pretty much like
we have today.

------
ssp
It's amusing to see a die-hard libertarian like ESR describe a dystopia where
online services are being developed by private entrepreneurs rather than the
US Government.

~~~
eugenejen
I think some libertarians support small governments and small corporations.

Large corporations always use their influence on governments. This happens for
a lot of time around the world. Those corporations influence governments to
stipulate laws that protect their own interests rather than interest of
proletariat.

The most disturbing aspect is that those large corporations propaganda as they
are in fact protecting proletariat's property right. In a country such as U.S.
where 1% in populations control 33% of the wealth and 10% in population
control 66% of the wealth, the law is not for protecting 90% population's
property right, but the 10%.

You doubts this? Look at RIAA, MPAA's effort in U.S. Congress.

P.S. I am a closet libertarian.

~~~
shriphani
Why "closet"?

~~~
bluekeybox
Because he hasn't come out of it yet; just look how impetuously he's attacking
property owners.

~~~
quanticle
The right to intellectual property isn't a natural right like the right to
physical property. The Constitution states that intellectual property (i.e.
copyrights and patents) exist to serve the purpose of encouraging innovation.
The RIAA, MPAA and software patent trolls' abuse of these rules serves to
hinder innovation, and therefore these rules should be revised.

I don't think there's anything especially revolutionary in what I just stated.

~~~
bluekeybox
Nothing really is a natural right. Nature is not a lawmaker. All rights,
rules, and laws are simply what we define them to be. The laws of physics are
about the only absolute laws out there. Watch out for people using the word
"natural". Whenever they mention this word, they use it to mean whatever suits
them best. It's from the 101 guide to critical reading: the use of the word
"natural" is a huge red flag for someone trying to sell you their politics.

It may seem natural that it is hard to make copies of physical objects, but
just wait 10-40 years (depending on who you ask) until 3D printers become
commonplace, and then reevaluate what you consider to be natural.

I'm not a huge fan of corporations like Disney; however, I have a feeling that
we are not using the proper ammunition when we attack them based on what our
idea of "natural" rights is. As a programmer, I feel that following logical
rules should not be encumbered by patents. As an artist, I get pissed when
someone tries to imitate me without proper credit, and I feel fully justified
in using legal means to stop them. I guess this means that I believe (so far)
that abstract algorithms should not be patentable while software
implementations (which carry not just algorithms but also a cultural
component) as applied to specific problems should be. I know some people try
to make them both patentable -- I am against that.

~~~
quanticle
>I guess this means that I believe (so far) that abstract algorithms should
not be patentable while software implementations (which carry not just
algorithms but also a cultural component) as applied to specific problems
should be.

How do you distinguish between the two? If you come up with a revolutionary
new cryptography algorithm and implement it in C, you would only be able to
patent that implementation. If I came along later and merely re-implemented
your innovation in Python, I could free-ride off your innovation without
paying you a cent. Is that right or fair? I don't honestly know. What I do
know is that its dreadfully hard to separate concept from implementation in a
field as abstract as programming.

------
kellishaver
Technology aside, I am having a hard time wrapping my head around the social
implications of no web, even on a personal level. My husband, my boss, my two
very closest friends, the nonprofit I volunteer with that means so much to me
- those all started first as internet acquaintances that grew into real,
offline relationships that span thousands of miles and have had a profound
impact on my life and have shaped who I am - and I'm just one person.

------
blumentopf
Not sure if the author of this piece actually witnessed what the Internet was
like without the WWW. Or, more specifically, without NCSA Mosaic, which really
jumpstarted the WWW.

My experience back then was that the Internet did grow exponentially even when
the WWW was not yet popular. Much faster than Compuserve and others.

Also, the allegation that Linux wouldn't have happened is bogus since
development of Linux actually started way before 1993/94 (when NCSA Mosaic
made the Web popular).

~~~
gwern
I think Eric S. Raymond witnessed the pre-WWW Internet.

~~~
mikecane
So did I. And I Commented and I think his essay is a parlor game. Amusing,
annoying, but not to be taken seriously.

~~~
shareme
why not to be taken seriously?

There was a movement by AT&T to block research and implementation of internet
or have you forgotten. In fact they wanted the infrastructure done their way
not decentralized, etc. Than there was FIdonet, etc.

~~~
mechanical_fish
Because time does not go backwards?

The problem with counterfactual history is that history is nonlinear: The
things which do happen affect the things that don't. In particular, it is very
hard to write the future history of things that were squelched by larger
forces before they could grow big. Squelched things are obscure. They are hard
to research.

It's hard enough to write an _actual_ early history of, say, Apple -- much of
it was witnessed only by a handful of people, and memory is fallible, and lots
of traditions have obscure beginnings -- but how do you write the future
history of the company that Steve Jobs would have started if Woz had decided
to remain at H-P? It's like trying to predict hurricanes by tracking all the
butterflies.

------
yaix
>>Technological change has a tendency to look inevitable in retrospect – “It
steam-engines when it’s steam-engine time.”

You would think so. But basically all parts of the steam engine where invented
in Roman times (<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_technology>).
Unfortunately, the empire collapsed before anybody found the time to put the
parts together. If they had, we would... well, something.

~~~
tomjen3
Even earlier than that actually - the Greeks had both the differential gear
and the steam engine.

There is pretty much nothing technological that would have prevented Athens
from destroying its opponents with steam powered tanks several centuries B.C.

Plus at the time the standard tactic would be a deep phalanx, which would have
been absolutely smashed by a tank driving over it.

~~~
pavel_lishin
Has anyone written an alternate history novel along these lines?

~~~
jacques_chester
I happen to host the blog (among others) of an author who has written just
such a novel: _Bring Laws and Gods_. It should be released some time this
year.

<http://skepticlawyer.com.au/tag/bring-laws-and-gods/>

The historical point of departure is that Archimedes of Syracuse was captured,
not killed, and brought back to Rome.

~~~
pavel_lishin
Can you gently suggest to him that his blog is really hard to navigate? I
can't even figure out where to find information about the book.

~~~
jacques_chester
It's a 'her'. Helen Dale.

I linked you to a blog category page; there's no "brochureware" as yet.

------
gaius
From the article:

 _The pretense being maintained was that only direct affiliates of government-
sponsored, authorized research programs were being allowed on_

and

 _One such serendipity was the invention of the World Wide Web_

But that's contradictory - Tim Berners-Lee was a full member of an official
research project when he invented the WWW!

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joezydeco
We'd have some damn fine Gopher browsers with 20 years under their belts.

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joeyh
Tim Wu argues persuasively in The Master Switch and elsewhere that these
things come in cycles, and that we're well on our way out of the cycle that
led to an open internet, and into a cycle of consolidation and control (see:
Facebook, locked down cell phone networks, net neutrality, etc).

~~~
pjscott
At least in the quickly-expanding Android world, cell phone networks seem to
be getting _less_ locked down, and this trend shows no sign of slowing.

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noonespecial
Something like FIDOnet would have taken it's place as the hacker-aether. Linux
would be alive and well.

------
pbreit
We have a pretty good idea of what would have happened without the us
government developing the Internet: 1) compuserve, genie, aol, prodigy, et al.
and 2) SMS messaging.

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jaysonelliot
The scenario presented here seems to mistake the Web for the Internet.

Before the Web was invented, Usenet (and to a lesser extent, WAIS and Gopher)
was a thriving protocol, with relatively large numbers of people participating
daily. Usenet was my first introduction to the Internet, and for years, it was
to me what Facebook is to many people now.

There were MUDs where we spent many late hours engaged with other Internet
users around the world, and yes, our email systems were on the Internet.

Thousands of independent ISPs were thriving before the Web came along, most
having gotten their start as dial-up BBSes. Each provided access to a wealth
of Internet services.

For that matter, hyperlinking was already commonplace in Gopher, and fairly
mature in Hypercard.

CD-ROMs were introducing rich multimedia experiences before the Web came
along, and it doesn't take much of an imagination to move from CD-ROMs and
Gopher to something very similar to the Web we know today.

It's fun to imagine alternate dystopian histories, but the one described here
is far-fetched, to say the very least.

------
kragen
I don't understand how he got through this entire post without mentioning AIM,
Facebook, Live.com, and Gmail, which are doing their damnedest to make his
vision come true.

------
jamesgagan
hey i remember my 300 baud atari modem good times! - the web would have
happened one way or another!

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maeon3
Maybe what we know as the internet is a woefully inadequate imitation of what
it COULD HAVE been. If only some influential people at DARPA could have done a
few things differently, then technological advancment would have happened an
order of magnitude faster, and we would already be a space faring
civilization.

~~~
pavel_lishin
Why does an advanced internet automatically imply space travel?

------
bonch
The article is a little silly in that it pretends walled gardens don't already
exist. To many people, the web is just Facebook and Yahoo Mail.

~~~
chalst
I don't think the web is Yahoo Mail to many people.

I think this might be a prelude to an attack on Facebook.

