
The world after coronavirus - jantomes
https://sfree.life/virtual-design-festival-li-edelkoort-free/
======
esotericn
This is literally YMMV.

Introverted people who had long commutes because they wanted a big garden,
garage, etc (or couldn't afford to live somewhere popular) are living the
dream right now.

Extroverted people living in city centres who chose small flats based on being
able to easily access the shared amenities, get to work quickly etc are worse
off because none of that exists any more.

It pretty much comes down to whether you made a housing decision (whether by
choice or necessity) in the 'old world' that would become better under
lockdown for you.

By the numbers, I have no proof, but I guesstimate that the majority are
losing out. Poor people have bad commutes and that's the group hit hardest
because their jobs don't exist any more and they have no savings.

~~~
mattacular
There's way more to whether an individual is cut out to cope with an extended
quarantine than their "choice" of housing and proximity to population center.
I would argue that's probably one of the least influential factors. Way ahead
of it would be things such as whether you have kids, a spouse, money, as well
as other personality traits beyond just extroverted/introverted.

Not to mention it's highly dubious to suggest that introverted people can or
do avoid the city for housing and extroverted people avoid the suburbs.

~~~
op00to
Jesus I wish my kids would go off to summer camp for a few months. They are
what’s making this most unbearable for me.

~~~
silveroriole
Why did you have kids if you hate being with them...?

~~~
aga98mtl
A generation or two ago, people just ignored their children. They told them to
go play outside until the sun come down. Now expectations have changed. These
expectations make it impossible to have a decent amount of "alone" time during
this quarantine. This renders many people unhappy. We love our children, but
we can't handle having them with us 100% of the time. This has never been
"normal".

~~~
TeMPOraL
Not to mention, if you expected to be with your spouse and kids 24/7 under the
same roof for extended periods of time, you'd probably buy a larger apartment.
Or perhaps a home with a garden. Even if it would cost significantly more than
your current one.

Much like global supply chains, our decisions are optimized quite tightly to
our individual lifestyles; what worked well in normal times suddenly doesn't
when lifestyles are forced to change.

~~~
silveroriole
I think this gives the real answer to my question, which is that other people
don’t plan for the worst case in the way I do. I wouldn’t have children unless
I was absolutely sure I could deal with them, because the worst case is so
awful (you can’t really get rid of them once you have them). I did factor in
things like “is this house big enough if I need to avoid my partner for long
periods of time?” into my buying decision. And so on. It didn’t really occur
to me that people would make very large life decisions like where to live or
whether to have children based on things continuing to be ‘normal’.

~~~
dan-robertson
If one reads this comment literally, it looks as if you are completely
oblivious to the constraints and realities of other people’s lives. I’m sure
your real attitude isn’t so extreme (though if it is then I guess I should
congratulate on being so prescient and good at planning).

For the record:

\- lots of people make decisions they later regret. Sometimes they make these
based on assumptions that later turn out to be incorrect, sometimes on
incomplete information, sometimes based on stress or strong emotion, sometimes
in line with advice, and sometimes against advice. Sometimes the effects are
small, sometimes they are large, sometimes they ought not be regretted.

\- some people have children without planning to beforehand (for various
reasons)

\- most people can’t take extreme worst case scenarios into account when
making big life decisions (eg “If I become unemployed or unable to work in 5
years I wouldn’t be able to afford any mortgage therefore I shouldn’t buy a
house”)

\- some people are constrained by other factors (eg “I’d like to have more
space but I can’t afford a larger house which is sufficiently close to my
work”)

\- It’s reasonably natural for people to want to have children and sometimes
they this even if they know it will be hard.

------
spodek
People are notoriously ineffective at predicting their behavior under
different conditions. In late December they spend thousands of dollars for gym
memberships they abandon by February. They say they'll never smoke or drink
again before quitting many times. Psychologists call the effect empathy gaps.

We respond to our environments in the moment, not how we think we will. As we
tune our environments to our situation, we create environments we like and get
rid of parts we don't.

When lockdowns end, unless we consciously choose to lead ourselves, we'll
revert to our old wasteful ways. Companies seeing opportunities to regain
market share or fearing losing it will send people flying again. People who
have found ways to get closer to loved ones remotely will start flying again,
ironically probably not bonding as well by choosing convenience over shared
effort and struggle. We'll waste again when marketed convenience.

That is, we'll revert to what marketers promote to us if we don't consciously
choose to keep our lives simple and sustainable. That's the value of
leadership -- personal and of others. I see virtually no leadership around the
environment, which is why I work on it. It takes effort, but I find the
rewards more than worth it.

~~~
roenxi
And honestly even the notion that the world _during_ coronavirus should be
that different is open to question. I agreed with taking action to delay the
virus by a few months to buy time to both work out what was going on and
figure out the most effective treatment strategies, but in Western countries
people are seriously considering 12 month style lockdowns to protect
potentially as low as 1% of the population who are well past the good years of
their life.

In hindsight it may well be that the actuarial math didn't make sense - this
isn't the first disease humanity has faced by a long stretch and we're
potentially looking at severe self inflicted wounds for something that doesn't
look like it is going to be the next Black Death or Ebola. The obvious
historical precedent I remember is 9/11\. Making any changes after 9/11 was a
mistake the US never really recovered from. This would be a great moment to be
a little hard-hearted and remember that everyone has to die of something.

We don't know what is going to happen from this economically. The economic
forecasts are as flimsy and there is a lot of room for unpleasant surprises.

~~~
lightthatfailed
Could you elaborate on the mistakes made after 9/11? The ones that come to
mind are the Patriot Act, and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

~~~
TeMPOraL
Also erosion of various civil liberties. Terrorism is like a pathogen causing
an auto-immune disorder; pretty much all of its damage comes from reaction to
it.

However, I don't think it's in any way like COVID-19 situation. In this
pandemic, the economy was going to go down anyway, due to simple self-
preservation of individuals. Without social distancing and lockdown measures,
once you'd seen people around you getting sick and dying left and right, you'd
too be reluctant to go to your work, or to run your plant.

------
chvid
It is all very fun to chat about but I am going to be boring and say that in
10 years the Corona-crisis will be just a blip in the distant pasts.

In 10 years the world will be more concentrated around the big cities. People
will travel more. Things will be more international, more global. The people
will rely more on services, eat out more. IT will play an even bigger role.

Basically a continuation of the globalisation process that has been in full
force for the past many years.

(Though I do think Germans finally will stop on using cash payments for
everything.)

~~~
DanielLihaciu
>Germans finally will stop on using cash payments for everything

You are right. We will see only buying electronically in the future.

~~~
drdeadringer
I've been hearing this since 1997. I don't know why I should believe this
until I see it.

------
DEADBEEFC0FFEE
I for one, am enjoying working from home, so far. I wake up without an alarm
clock. I do t have to wear what amounts to a uniform, I don't have to spend 2
- 3 hours commuting. I can get my work done.

I one of the few who default meeting to video on.

If nothing else I'm enjoying demonstrating I can be an effective worker at
home.

On the other hand, I'm putting on weight. I'm not listening to as many
podcasts. I'm sitting on my arse for very long periods.

~~~
bamboozled
_I for one, am enjoying working from home, so far. I wake up without an alarm
clock._

This changes overtime IMO. I've worked from home for years now, initially it's
a blessing, in-time it can be a curse.

If you WFH and want to be productive you _must_ learn to plan your day and
that usually involved some type of discipline.

~~~
spery
Waking up without an alarm clock doesn't imply lack of discipline. Unless I'm
going out or going to bed very late I usually don't need an alarm. I'd just
wake up at the same time every day.

~~~
ghaff
Ditto. I don’t normally use an alarm unless I have an earlyish meeting or
appointment. I wake up within a certain window naturally and that’s fine.

------
huhtenberg
Divorces and pregnancies aside, there should also be some long-term effect on
the whole generation that is now kids.

For parents and kids to be together 24/7 for several weeks is really quite
unprecedented. At the very least it's a forced chance to get to know each
other better and that should have some long-lasting consequences.

~~~
lnsru
Many many kids spend now 24/7 time in Netflix on mobile. Long term effect
might be more kids with glasses. Parents still must work from home now.

I think kids spend few weeks with parents anyway. It’s called summer vacation
and schools are closed.

------
danieltillett
They will when they lose their jobs in the Great Slump that follows. We are a
fraction of the way through the economic pain yet to come.

------
Jemm
One aspect few people are discussing is that companies who see that remote
work is feasible may broaden their hiring pool to a larger geographic area so
that local people will be competing with those for whom a lower wage is
acceptable.

I am curious to see what affect this might have on urban centers.

------
samuli
People, whose jobs are about forecasting change, forecast change.

------
KozmoNau7
I enjoy not having to commute to work, just to sit in a noisy open plan
office. At home I have peace and quiet and no distractions. My colleagues and
I have daily video meeting, including time for social conversation.

On the other hand, I am sorely missing the concerts, festivals and other
social events I normally do in my free time. Everything has been cancelled
until the 31st of August, which has completely wiped out the festival season.

I fully expect this policy to be extended, so that only small events are
allowed at first. Odds are the next festival I will be able to attend will be
in November at the earliest.

So it's 50/50 for me. I have gotten back into some old hobbies again, now that
I have more free time, but I sorely miss social interaction, despite being
rather introverted.

Hopefully we will see some positive effects of this lockdown, such as
challenging the idea that medical services should be profitable at all costs.

~~~
scarface74
I _hate_ my open office plan. It wouldn’t be bad if it didn’t include sales
and customer support managers who are always on calls.

I’m using this time to accelerate my push to work for either Amazon (AWS) or
Microsoft (Azure) in a mostly remote role (with lots of travel) in their
consulting division.

I would have been happy working as an FTE for a smaller local consulting
company, but I suspect that most of the small consulting companies are going
to go bust. I don’t see too many companies wanting to start new initiatives.
Microsoft and Amazon have enough capital to both weather the recession that we
are going to be in, enough large customers, and are always looking to keep
their bench warm.

------
robjan
This same conclusion has been posted many many times but the actual answer is
"horses for courses". Everyone has their own preferred working style.

------
mister_hn
So far I love working from home, I am more productive than in office, despite
parenting.

I'm just waiting for the time to kick my kids to the kindergarten again, to
gain a better concentration, then there will be much more improvement.

------
m3kw9
WFH: A lot of people that never really considered work from home will start to
demand more, the people that was a big opponent of it will soften up. They
won’t miss but will despise the traffic to work even more, the time and money
saved from the travel will be amplified.

Eating out: there will be a down tick of people that eat out because they
discover and become more handy at cooking.

Biotech: Uptick in interests in biology, major speed up in biotech
collaborations and tools, govt removing certain red tape.

Social: Extroverts discovering solitude become more introvert. Introverts
becoming a bit more extroverted because of the critical need of online
interaction easing them back into social circles.

Health: There will be lots of people under exercising and slew of injury after
things reopen and ppl start playing sports.(please be careful)

The demand for telehealth will spur remote Standard tools that are installed
at home that allow doctors to diagnose most things, like blood pressure, heart
beat, stenograph, some type of all in ones. Sponsored by health insurers.

------
FHermisch
This working-style reminds me more of the weavers in Europe at the end of the
19th century. Home-workers will easily just be rated (and paid) on the amount
of work done per day. As there are always others who will be more productive,
wages decline. At the end, whole families have to produce digital content to
make a small fortune... (I hope I will be wrong with this)

~~~
mrleinad
Ramp-up time exists as well. Depends on the area, but if you need 6 months to
really get a contractor up to speed with what you do, you can't afford to risk
changing just for some marginal benefit in speed.

------
raister
It takes discipline and cerebral maturity to work at home, specially under
distracting environments (e.g. Internet, games, kids). Long commutes, long
lunches, long coffees, long watercooler hours discussing movies, etc., maybe
that's had to go anyway. However, social interaction will always be key in any
human endeavour, and that should not change whatsoever.

------
op03
Just wondering...are there countries/states/regions showing some kind of baked
in immunity to it or unique environment that reduces replication rate or
whatever?

Can economies compete if one is operating under quarantine conditions and
another doesn't have too? Anyone know any past examples of that?

~~~
thomaszander
The natural consequence of our last 50+ years of ever increasing economic
growth is the lifestyle we had until a couple of months ago.

The push to improve economic output every year has as the effect that people
have left very little time for themselves, that they have created smog hells
in cities around the world.

I would argue that this environment we created is the antidote, where
productivity has not gone up based on what you expect from the amount of hours
worked. People keep putting more effort in but the output is not moving much.

I would expect that after some time of stabilizing (and articles like this
show its already happening) that people will be more productive and be
competitive with those that just keep chugging on.

It is easy to see on an individual level: you can try to put in 80 hour weeks,
but a competitor that gets plenty of sleep and is happy doing his job just
might outcompete you anyway.

I think the same can be seen on a larger scale, and probably with larger
difference as well.

An economy where people are able to work in clean air, with much less pressure
and much less feeling of being a consumer will end up being more productive
even though a lot of people are working from home.

Because, remember, the main reason a lot of jobs are lost is not because
productivity went down. It is because money is not spend. And money not spend
is left available to be spend on other things. This will re-balance itself.

~~~
op03
Agree money fill flow/jobs will come back.

But I am not sure about your other point. People who put in 80 hours and burn
out, can be replaced as there is an endless supply of labor in some parts of
the world. At an individual level you compete against that pool. Not just one
person. And many in that pool have been told for long, consumerism is the
reward.

A lot of populists elected world over have promised their bases (who already
feel they are owed) certain things. So they will push to get back to "normal".
And given the mistrust and polarization that exists, its going to be a hard
sell for big change.

Hopefully someone will show up who can do the selling, as I more or less agree
with you things need to change. But I feel it will take multiple generations.

------
corpMaverick
I just wanted to make an observation about automation. Yes, it has caused big
disruptions on the labor markets. But, in these times, aren't you glad we have
machines doing a lot of the essential work it was previously done by humans?

------
bartread
(Worth saying before I give my perspective that I agree with all the comments
suggesting that YMMV and that, for a lot of people, COVID has been anywhere
between a serious inconvenience/frustration and a complete disaster.
Everything below is a very personal view with incredibly limited general
applicability.)

It's interesting, because the way I feel about working from home has
completely changed, and I suspect will continue to change as this pandemic
progresses.

Previously I'd work from home for a day or two tops, and didn't really enjoy
it. Didn't like the lack of company, especially not as I live alone, and found
myself becoming easily distracted if I tried to work from home for longer
periods.

I've now been working from home continuously since 16th March. Whilst
loneliness and difficulty of focus were problems to begin with they've
substantially passed, and I'm finding my ability to focus has improved.

I've come to appreciate the quiet and (ironically given what I said a couple
of paragraphs back) lack of distraction. I can get up and move, or do
something mindless if I need some time to get away from my screen and think
without running into anyone. I can also make a cup of coffee without it
turning into a 10-minute project where I have to queue/make smalltalk/empty
and refill the coffee machine, and whatever else can distract and delay.

In general, if I'm frustrated by a situation at work, it's easier to get some
mental and emotional distance from it, which is helpful for clarity of thought
and better decision-making.

I've managed to set boundaries and regular hours for working that I rarely
stray beyond, and I find myself more creative and energetic in the evenings.

Not everything is perfect:

\- Lots of video calls and meetings becomes draining, and we've had to learn
to change our ways of working somewhat to deal with this.

\- Related: I find that preparation for meetings is even more valuable now
because it helps to keep them shorter.

\- I also prefer to have difficult conversations face to face in a way that
video calls don't really substitute for.

\- I miss my family and friends, and am missing out on my newborn nephew's
first months as he grows and develops. Again, video calls go some way to
helping (and I'm certainly grateful to have them - imagine what this would
have been like 15 or 20 years ago), but they're obviously not a complete
substitute.

\- I've got flabby around the middle: did a virtual black tie dinner for a
friend's birthday last night and couldn't do up the trousers of my tux
properly - thankfully the cummerbund saved the day, and video calls cover a
multitude of sins. I'm getting back into an exercise routine but clearly I
need to do more.

Still, right now, I don't want to go back to the office, and this is even
taking into account that my commute is generally less than 30 minutes each
way.

Who knows? In another month I may feel differently. Only time will tell.

------
coder1001
A lot of assumptions about how a lot of industries operate will change.

