

"What May Happen in the Next Hundred Years", from c.1900 - ColinWright
http://www.howtobearetronaut.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Ladies-Home-Journal.jpg

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ctdonath
Remarkable how much of that has come true now ... and how unthinkable most of
it was then.

Even those predictions which haven't happened are more by choice than by
ability.

~~~
ChuckMcM
I find it interesting to understand where the blindspots are.

For example, mosquitos, flys, rats and mice were predicted to be exterminated.
So did the scourge of these pests simply get mitigated to the point where
further investment in their extermination was unwarranted?

Completely missed airplanes (to be expected, the Wright Brothers had yet to
fly) but air-ships as flying fortresses? Not connecting their train imagery
with their military history. (if you have high mobility slow moving 'forts'
are not effective)

The population number was over and the life expectancy under (330M US pop in
2000, vs 350 - 500M predicted), life expectancy prediction of 50 yrs vs 72
years. That is an interesting combination to get wrong but the blind spot was
that people would voluntarily have fewer children.

Amusing that everyone was supposed to vote themselves into the US. Can you
imagine the chaos if Mexico elected to join the US and applied for statehood?
Wow.

So its clearly harder to predict political change, easier to extrapolate
technological curves, and somewhere between the two lies emergent
technolgy/attitudes.

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mc32
Pretty remarkable how accurate those predictions were --some were off, but the
hit rate was pretty good. Man[kind] will see around the world... That English
would establish its own grammar rather then try to foist Latin on it (such
that one could not end a sentence with a preposition because it ran against
Latin grammar but was natural in English). The rise of UPS and home delivery
of goods...

Good stuff.

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aidenn0
The most influetial 20th century improvement that they missed was the rise of
the airplane, in particular the jet airplane. It obviated the need for "fast
electric boats" from New York to London, as well as a transcontinental high-
speed railroad. Without planes, we probably would have a 150mph train
connecting New York to San Francisco.

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sbayless
Whenever I read these types of speculative predictions from the past, I always
get the urge to chuckle at the things they inevitably missed, or the sillier
predictions - but tempered by the ways we have failed to live up to their
dreams.

(As an aside: 'strawberries as large as apples' - but how would they taste?)

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theThirdMan
The one plausible idea that has not been introduced, at least how they
propose, would be pneumatic tubes for delivering packages. I have to think
that such a system would be more efficient and cheap at some point than
delivery by freight.

~~~
ahage16
Sort of related is this plan to use quadrotors for small item delivery in
remote areas. It could work well in developed areas too, I think.

<http://matternet.net/>

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Kuta
"There will be No C, X or Q in our every-day alphabet. They will be abandoned
because unnecessary. Spelling by sound will have been adopted, first by the
newspapers." Seems this will never happen.

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kb101
Interestingly enough, the only big thing they really missed was the rise of
the personal computer and the Internet.

~~~
garethsprice
"Photographs will be telegraphed from any distance", "Man will see around the
world", "Grand opera will be telephoned" and "Telephones around the world" are
all quite close approximations, all based on universal access to communication
technology.

The "University education will be free to all ... all will receive free
eyeglasses and medical care" part was a depressing read - in the US we're
probably further from that now than when the article was written.

~~~
mansr
Large parts of Europe have free university education and free medical care.

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drallison
Interesting, but almost impossible to read because the scanner resolution is
too low.

~~~
robin_reala
The full res image: [http://www.howtobearetronaut.com/wp-
content/uploads/2011/07/...](http://www.howtobearetronaut.com/wp-
content/uploads/2011/07/Ladies-Home-Journal.jpg)

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rottendoubt
Pretty interesting how many he got right or close....

