
Reddit admin: "If SOPA passes it would almost certainly mean the end of reddit" - gasull
http://www.reddit.com/r/SOPA/comments/nhfes/do_you_guys_realize_this_might_mean_reddit_might/c395f00
======
astrodust
If you wanted to implement something like this, regardless of merit, then DNS
blocking is by far the worst way to go about doing it.

Anyone with an interest in using pirate sites will simply switch to alternate
DNS providers, there will always be a way, and legitimate users will be
subject to rampant and arbitrary censorship in the name of "stopping piracy".

You can't stop piracy. It's a supply and demand problem. It's a perception
problem.

How can you convince someone that the TV show that is broadcast for free over
the air is legal, but downloading exactly the same show at a later time is
illegal?

Companies have all the tools they need to reduce piracy but they refuse to use
them, instead trying to extort money from people through more conventional
means. They'd rather have ten sales at $20 than thousands at $1.

~~~
ghshephard
As much as I despise SOPA, and realize this is little more than an wealth
transfer to the entertainment industry from the internet industry, I will
acknowledge that DNS blocking is actually a pretty efficient way to stop your
average person from accessing web sites.

Remember - SOPA is not designed to stop piracy - there are hundreds
(thousands) of mechanisms for file sharing that your average government policy
will have no impact on. What it will do, is make it burdensome for 99% of the
non-nerd population.

As long as the 99% are impacted, the entertainment industry really don't care
about that final 1% trading files to their hearts galore. This isn't about
principal - it's pure economics.

~~~
Natsu
No, see, you're forgetting the six degrees of separation thing. All it takes
is for someone who knows someone who knows someone to help them. They just
need some plug-in or whatever to check their DNS against an uncensored one and
their geek friends will probably be passing such things around in less than a
week. I think someone _already made that program_ actually, so I think the
blocks are likely to be ineffective before they start.

That myth that "this will make it hard for the 99%" thing has been trotted out
during every single anti-piracy failure ever. (There have been no lasting
successes.) Once the "smart cow" opens the barn door for everyone else, it's
open. Every single cow can just walk right out and it will be too late when
you go to close it. It's like we're playing a game where we flip a fair coin.
Heads, I win. Tails, we flip it again. And yet people still think that maybe
next time it will work.

Think we can make it up with even harsher punishments? Well, the Great
Firewall of China leaks like a sieve. Incidentally, they also use a form of
DNS blocking, as I understand it (something like spoofed NXDOMAIN replies).

~~~
stef25
"All it takes is for someone who knows someone who knows someone to help them"

Not so sure. I've tried explaining bittorent to several non nerd friends and
they all say "oh I'll just watch it streaming".

~~~
mooki
A decade ago - ALL my friends were using direct connect. Few of them were
nerds, most were barely computer literate. But free movies made them motivated
enough to learn. Some even ran their own hubs even though they had no interest
in computers otherwise.

Things like this spread fast, especially among young people. The reason people
stick with streams today is because they have no motivation to learn anything
else.

~~~
ghshephard
mooki - If you do a survey, you'll find that maybe 1 in a hundred people have
even heard of direct connect. It may be the case that all of your friends were
using it - but in the scale of 250 million americans, I would be shocked to
discover that more than 2.5 million of them indicated they had used Direct
Connect to share a movie.

The RIAA/MPA and friends are concerned about the 247.5 million people - less
concerned about the 2.5 million people.

It's why Usenet basically contains every single media property of interest -
the decent search engines for it are pretty much buried in the blacknet, and
will stay there, out of sight of the 99%.

------
sehugg
This reminds me of a story about the first atomic bomb test. Not too long
before the first detonation was to occur, some scientists voiced a concern
that there was a _slim_ chance that the blast would be strong enough to ignite
the atmosphere and pretty much destroy the world. These voices were in the
minority, and disproved through calculation and common sense -- but the
official paper disproving it did not arrive until a year later. So the first
atomic bomb was detonated with a few lingering doubts about whether it would
instantly destroy the world.

This is what the SOPA debate feels like to me, except there are no reasoned
arguments disproving its opponents' worst fears, just pat dismissals of the
opposition.

~~~
ericd
I don't think that many are arguing that it's going to be an obvious complete
annihilation. The backlash would be far too large if Reddit actually went
down. More likely, it's just going to be small sites here and there that are
too small to defend themselves, and that not enough people care about seeing
go away to make an outcry loud enough for Washington to hear. That's what's
really scary about it - that it will have very bad, almost silent effects that
few outside of tech notice.

~~~
MaxGabriel
So like, Reddit in 2005?

~~~
ericd
Yeah, 2005 Reddit would probably be pretty screwed. Areas with a lot of user
generated content might calcify if this big barrier to entry comes in, and
only the big incumbent players are safe. I imagine the fact that govt. clearly
wants this is probably already going to have a chilling effect on riskier
areas, even if nothing gets passed.

------
Qz
I'm getting certificate errors -- is this part of the point or something else?

~~~
notatoad
it's because OP linked to the HTTPS version of reddit, which doesn't exist.
akamai will serve an HTTPS version of any page that they cache, and if the
customer has not configured HTTPS they will serve it up with their
certificate.

reddit uses akamai for page content but not for any authentication, there are
no security benefits to using <https://reddit> instead of <http://reddit>

~~~
mike-cardwell
FWIW, a HTTPS version of Reddit does exist. It just happens to be on the
pay.reddit.com hostname instead. See:

[https://pay.reddit.com/r/SOPA/comments/nhfes/do_you_guys_rea...](https://pay.reddit.com/r/SOPA/comments/nhfes/do_you_guys_realize_this_might_mean_reddit_might/c395f00)

~~~
notatoad
there was an explanation from one of the admins once upon a time about why
pay.reddit wasn't any more secure than standard reddit. i forget the details,
but the consensus was don't bother.

~~~
mike-cardwell
I'll stick with the side of caution and use the freely available HTTPS version
until someone proves the above claim.

------
gasull
If SOPA passes, every user-generated content website is going to have
tremendous costs, in many cases prohibitive. I think only Facebook and a few
players would have the resources to police their content. This is going to be
really bad for Silicon Valley and the startup community.

~~~
jerf
Actually, thanks to the economics of computer startups, the big players, if
they were held to the same standards as everybody else, are worse off. They
have fewer people-per-post than smaller sites, not more. It's that whole
scaling thing that is the reason why computer startups can be so exciting and
lucrative.

Of course, the key phrase here is "if they were held to the same standard as
everybody else". Though I think the second-order effects of SOPA would be more
bizarre on something like Facebook than you'd think at first blush. The mere
fact that they could still be legally shut down in a heartbeat still can't
help but have a profound effect on their world even if the trigger is never
actually pulled for fear of generating an uproar.

------
blantonl
Considering HN is all user generated content, does pg have a perspective on
SOPA's potential impact on HN?

------
vonskippy
One shining note to remember before everyone turns doom and gloom, in the
States (if I remember what the citizenship pamphlet said when I got my green
card), it's not really "law" until it stands up to a test case in a court of
law.

Since the congress critters are lining their pockets left and right from the
lobbyists for this bill, it's not in their personal interest to turn it down,
even if they know it won't stand up in court.

And if it passes, it's almost guaranteed to be tested (and overturned) in
court - as it's been mentioned many many times, Youtube, Google, Bing, etc etc
have way too much to lose to let it go unchallenged.

Seems like it's just status quo here in the States with the new "pay-n-pass"
government.

~~~
monochromatic
> it's not really "law" until it stands up to a test case in a court of law

This is not true. It _is_ law _until_ it's overturned.

~~~
tokenadult
Whether or not enforcement of the law is enjoined before that determination
depends on legal criteria for injunctive relief. There may or may not be any
attempt to enforce a new statute on this subject, even if the statute is
passed and the President signs it. I'm sure lawyers are already thinking about
how to challenge (and how to defend!) the statute in the court system if it is
passed and signed.

------
plasma
If the bill passes, would people band together and try and invoke the bill on
the very people that wanted it in?

Like the government website, record labels, etc, on the very frivolous grounds
they are trying to ignore right now to get it approved.

I wonder how quickly it would be changed then?

~~~
jcromartie
This is a great idea. Anywhere user content is allowed, start spamming
copyrighted material. Turn comment sections on whitehouse.gov into the next
Pirate Bay.

------
mhartl
HN admin: please s/https/http/ in the story link.

------
lkx
The point of maximum leverage for SOPA seems to be lobbyists, and those who
instruct them, not the congressmen who they buy. Right now they seem to be
well hidden, and the decks are stacked in their favor, with protests and
letter writing campaigns to Congress seemingly ignored.

Maybe the time has come for those who are pushing for this act to be fully
exposed, and subject directly to public outrage. A handful of Big Content
execs should be a lot easier to influence, than 485 members of Congress.

------
redthrowaway
FWIW, Erik's the GM of reddit, not just an admin.

------
pire
Just come to Spain guys :)

~~~
masklinn
They could host Reddit in Spain (or anywhere else), but the whole US "market"
would still be closed to it (via DNS blocks). And I'm betting the majority of
Reddit's population is from the US.

And of course other countries will probably decide to follow the US's lead.

~~~
frisco
Is this true even if they're not hosted on a US-controlled TLD such as .com?
If they use the .es TLD, then shouldn't anyone with access to a name server
that accurately mirrors the zones for that domain have access? I don't see how
it's in the US's power to prevent that. Perhaps there'd be a transition period
where international name servers stop trusting US mirrors of international
TLDs and US root name servers, but if you stop using those it should still
work. Right?

~~~
weinzierl
As far as I understand it, they can force every DNS provider under US-
jurisdiction (usually the ISP, for instance Comcast, but also OpenDNS and
Google) to remove or alter DNS records. This works for .com the same as for
.es, but of course it doesn't prevent you from using a name server outside the
US.

At least that is how the "Zugangserschwerungsgesetz" in Germany works and I
think SOPA will be similar in this respect, but I might be wrong..

~~~
jannes

      At least that is how the "Zugangserschwerungsgesetz" in Germany works and I think SOPA
      will be similar in this respect, but I might be wrong..
    

No, that's how the Zugangserschwerungsgesetz (access hindrance law) was
supposed to work. But it didn't pass and the governemt abandoned it after a
public debate.

Edit: ok, it turns out I'm misinformed. The law passed somehow after it was
already dead, so it was never applied.

Germany was lucky that somehow it was achieved to make this law subject of
public debate. Maybe Americans should copy the strategies that were used by
German activists back in 2008 :) But on the other hand, I think that it would
be a lot more difficult to achieve this in the American media environment.
America's media was asleep when the Bush administration decided to invade
Iraq, it will also be asleep this time.

~~~
fpgeek
I don't think American media are asleep on the subject of SOPA. I think
they're awake and _on the other side_. It just so happens that not discussing
SOPA is probably the best thing they can do for it right now.

------
wavephorm
The real problem is it's not just SOPA. This authoritarian trend has been
going on since 9/11. The Patriot Act, Homeland Security, the Secure Fence Act,
and recently NDAA, and PIPA. Each one is a clever euphemism design to conceal
its true dystopian purpose. The American regime is strengthening itself to
unprecedented levels... for what?

Generally countries do not strip its citizens of so many civil liberties
unless there is a clear goal ahead. We will probably find out in the next few
years.

~~~
srl
> Generally countries do not strip its citizens of so many civil liberties
> unless there is a clear goal ahead.

Not sure about that. I think the natural tendency is for any institution to
try to grab more power, no matter what the situation is - since 9/11, congress
has found doing so unusually easy, and has responded by taking advantage of
the opportunity.

That's not to say the abuses aren't only a few years away, but I don't think
these power-grabs have been done with those abuses as a perceived goal.
They're just power-grabs.

~~~
ldar15
Power-grabs _are_ the abuse. There need not be any imoral motive behind the
desire for this power, nor any plan to use them "for evil". We have already
seen (UMG) that, given such power, there will be "accidental" abuse that has a
major, negative effect on small players and citizens.

Even if you believe that these were genuine "accidents", do you believe that
it is acceptable to allow these interests to have such power? Do you think it
is just about "unimportant" things like copying music?

The US is still the worlds largest superpower, but compared to 20 years ago it
has vastly less power. Its power has declined and continues to do so. Any
student of history will tell you that this is exactly when states transform
from free nations to fascist states.

~~~
bluekeybox
> Any student of history will tell you that this is exactly when states
> transform from free nations to fascist states.

No, absolutely not, that's not how it happens. Go back and read your history
books. Also, Godwin is not on your side.

~~~
ldar15
I don't think I mentioned the Nazi's, but since you bring it up.

"From the prosperity of the empire during the Wilhelmine era (1890-1914),
Germany plunged into World War I, a war it was to lose and one that spawned
many of the economic crises that would destroy the successor Weimar Republic."

"During the Hitler era (1933-45), the economy developed a hothouse prosperity,
supported with high government subsidies to those sectors that tended to give
Germany military power and economic autarky"

Economic crises inducing a transition from democracy to plutocracy/fascism,
and massive military spending, ending in wars on multiple fronts.

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Germany>

I suppose I should also qualify my statement as "dominant states". Since the
most common way for small states to be converted to fascism is by the dominant
state (i.e. USA) installing fascist/authoritarian governments for them. So I
concede that, in general, you may be right.

~~~
bluekeybox
> Economic crises inducing a transition from democracy to plutocracy/fascism,
> and massive military spending, ending in wars on multiple fronts.

There is one major thing missing from your description; it's so glaring and
obvious that I'm amazed that you don't notice it. Nazis rose to power through
a populist platform which promoted ethnic/racial hatred and reappropriation of
resources from those perceived as morally "corrupt" (the Jewish people) or
"too powerful" (the British empire). The Nazi leaders did not come to power
first and then all of a sudden decided to exterminate the Jews out of the
blue; the they went along with what was a populist sentiment at the time
(while adding fuel to the fire by the means of propaganda and mass media which
was relatively new at the time), and exploited that precisely that popular,
hateful sentiment to guarantee their rise to power. I recommend watching a
documentary called "The Goebbels Experiment" for a look from the inside on how
it happened.

N.B. By going with what you're suggesting, any possible "empire" is fascist,
which is blatantly wrong. Plutocracy is bad for various reasons, but
plutocracy =/= fascism and genocide. I find it hilarious when people blame
plutocracy for causing fascism because it is precisely the supposed
"plutocracy" of the time (which was actually a codeword for rich Jews) which
drove (indirectly of course) ignorant/resentful Germans in the 1930s to
support Hitler and his clique.

~~~
sirclueless
So what you're saying is that after a decimation of their economy, Germans
were angry at the economic elite in their country. They then listened to the
entertainment industry's pressures to remove their freedom of speech, and
other civil rights.

Sounds about right.

~~~
slurgfest
No, a really important feature of fascism is this hate component which keeps
being omitted.

SOPA sucks, but it isn't driven by an ideology of the nation's renewal through
purges of some undesirable class, return to cultural and religious
fundamentals of the nation, pressing need to defeat communism and prove the
nation's glory with war and occupations...

Whether or not the US is moving toward fascism in some way, SOPA is incidental
to that - SOPA is nothing more than a big present to certain industries

~~~
bluekeybox
> a really important feature of fascism is this hate component which keeps
> being omitted.

Yeah -- it's like an elephant in the room and no one among those who are the
first to bring up comparisons between the U.S. and fascist states talks about
it. I wonder why.

> SOPA is nothing more than a big present to certain industries

That is the best way to think about it -- it's akin to government pork in a
way.

------
zotz
"The nature of law is to maintain justice. This is so much the case that, in
the minds of the people, law and justice are one and the same thing. There is
in all of us a strong disposition to believe that anything lawful is also
legitimate. This belief is so widespread that many persons have erroneously
held that things are 'just' because law makes them so." -Fredric Bastiat

------
paulhauggis
People care so much about SOPA, but not as much about the Internet Tax Bill,
which means every small e-commerce site will be forced to collect taxes for
every jurisdiction in the US.

I seriously doubt all of them have the manpower or money to properly collect
sales tax.

~~~
adgar
> I seriously doubt all of them have the manpower or money to properly collect
> sales tax.

Isn't this usually when someone pipes in and says "seems like a good
opportunity for a startup"? It's a complex but well-defined domain - perfect
for building a paid service. Input to the API is billing zip code, the type of
good/service being sold, the date of transaction, and the pretax amount. The
lawyers will point out other factors I don't know about. The output is the tax
to charge.

Charge by the API call, with different tiers/bulk pricing options for those
who need to process many microtransactions versus those who are selling more
expensive, shipped goods.

Or do people believe that once a credit card number is used on the internet
instead of in a point of sale reader, the transactions really should be exempt
from any taxes? I agree it's a lot harder problem to solve, don't get me
wrong, but doo people really believe the "correct" solution is to just say "we
should never have sales tax on the internet because it's different"?

Edit: If this law passes, such a service would also be an _awesome_
competitive advantage for some of those startup payment processor companies
that I see sprouting up.

~~~
X-Istence
It is interstate commerce, as such sales tax should not be collected under
current laws.

~~~
adgar
Current laws, maybe - I'm no lawyer, and won't pretend to know the answer.

But I asked if people actually expect that it reasonably should _stay_ that
way. I see many people indignant about the idea of collecting sales tax for
internet purchases. I'm not sure if that's because of the undue burden on the
collector (a solvable problem) or if they really think interstate transactions
on the internet should be exempt from taxation forever.

------
Slimy
Veto SOPA: [https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petitions/!/petition/veto-
sopa-b...](https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petitions/!/petition/veto-sopa-bill-
and-any-other-future-bills-threaten-diminish-free-flow-information/g3W1BscR)

------
mkramlich
it's interesting to me that the same folks who wanted Citzens United because
it was supposedly pro free speech are also in favor of SOPA which is pretty
clearly anti free speech. what they have in common is both favor large
corporations at the expense of individuals and the non-rich. more freedom for
the former and less for the latter. not a good trend in a country historically
and ostensibly founded on individual liberty and non-aristocracy.

~~~
jacoblyles
I like Citizens United and I dislike SOPA. That's just one data point, but
strong free speech advocates do exist.

~~~
Bo102010
Likewise. I side with the ACLU on Citizens United - i.e. that the Supreme
Court decided it correctly.

You can rationally be displeased what you expect the outcome of the case to be
(e.g. increased ability for corporate financing of election campaigns), but I
don't think there's a coherent defense of the sections of BCRA that the court
struck down.

ETA: The government argued that BCRA would allow them to ban, for example, a
500 page book that contained a single sentence endorsing a candidate
([http://reason.com/archives/2010/06/29/will-elena-kagan-
allow...](http://reason.com/archives/2010/06/29/will-elena-kagan-allow-
books/print)). If you think SOPA is heavy-handed, just think what BCRA could
have led to.

~~~
wallawe
What is the ACLU's stance on SOPA?

~~~
Bo102010
<http://www.aclu.org/blog/free-speech/urge-congress-stop-sopa>

------
billpatrianakos
Reddit admin engages in scare tactics, fear mongering, and the worst kind of
hyperbole.

Guys, the Internet isn't going to shut off is SOPA passes so please chill out
and try to be rational. All anyone is doing is talking about a workaround to a
Gret Firewall that doesn't even exist and pissng their pants over the US
becoming fascist.

Panic never helps anyone. While everyone is busy hiding under the bed waiting
for SOPA to be over I wonder what else isnt being talked about? I'm sure it's
far more important than this distraction.

~~~
andygeers
I don't think they're suggesting that the internet will shut off, just that
the overhead of them having to respond to takedown demands etc will be more
than their 11 employees are able to deal with in a standard working week on
top of their existing workload, meaning it will cease to be financially
viable.

~~~
billpatrianakos
I know, I get that. I'm a little frustrated by all the hysteria though. I know
my comment sounded snarky and it's because of my frustration. The title of the
post was very link-bait-y but the actual admin's comment made sense.

There are way too many submissions about SOPA that are repeats and the
discussion is literally exactly the same. It's all about DNS workarounds or
using OpenDNS then some guy says "no, use DownDNS" and it's just the same.

I know SOPA is awful but I think we can take a break from it for a minute and
enjoy Christmas. There doesn't seem to be anything new to say about it so
let's let it go for a sec, get away from the computer, and stop literally
panicking.

~~~
slurgfest
DNS circumvention won't help. The section of SOPA titled "ENFORCEMENT OF
ORDERS" specifically empowers the AG to "bring an action for injunctive
relief" against anyone helping to circumvent SOPA's DNS blacklisting. Since
other parts of the bill give them immunity, they can do it very freely and
everyone has to be really afraid of triggering that kind of action.

If more people actually read the text they'd see precisely how bad it is,
without any exaggeration being necessary.

"Enjoy Christmas" is a terrible argument for why I shouldn't care about
legislation that creates vast new liabilities for the entire internet industry
- one of the few industries doing at all well since this recession began.

------
joelmichael
I'll believe it when I see it. I just don't believe the US government wants to
shut down Reddit, Wikipedia, YouTube, and all of the other major sites the
alarmists are claiming.

~~~
corin_
It's not a conspiracy theory that the government wants to kill these sites.

But SOPA would open these sites up to problems that would be enforced by law,
and which would cause them much harm, quite possibly to the extent of them
shutting down.

The politicians either don't understand these problems, or don't care about
them - you can be the judge on that.

~~~
joelmichael
I think people are being a bit hysterical. I remember the same thing happening
when the DMCA was passed. The government just wants to end flagrant abuses of
piracy. I don't think they are going to sic their dogs on Reddit. Sites like
YouTube are already in compliance. So, I think it does smack of conspiracy
theory, yes.

~~~
tensor
Interestingly enough, if you bothered to read the comment by reddit's admin
you would note that the DMCA _has_ increased the cost of running reddit. We've
also seen the DMCA abused by media companies to take down content they have no
rights to. Usually, these cases involve a victim without the money to hire
lawyers to fight it.

There were never claims that the DMCA would literally shutdown sites like
youtube and reddit. But the criticisms of it certainly seem justified in
hindsight.

~~~
fpgeek
Especially when you consider how many different ways fair use has been
weakened and restricted post-DMCA.

