
Fewer Births Than Deaths Among Whites in Majority of U.S. States - niceperson
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/20/us/white-minority-population.html
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ElectricalPast
This is simple mathematics. If your birthrate is below replacement rate,
pretty soon your population's births will outnumber its deaths.

The only reason the United States hasn't seen a shrinking population (and
stagnating economy) like much of Europe and Japan is due to immigration:

[https://www.vox.com/the-big-
idea/2017/11/10/16631980/fertili...](https://www.vox.com/the-big-
idea/2017/11/10/16631980/fertility-immigration-economics-growth-family-
friendly)

~~~
candiodari
Integration is the central story every government in Europe is preaching. It
doesn't seem to be happening (and where it does, not nearly fast enough to
matter).

Now you might say "so they don't have your culture, big deal". No, that's not
what I mean.

I mean middle eastern sections in big european cities have unemployment rates
that are only a little better than middle eastern cities, and that simply
won't work. Effectively, with the numbers as they are, immigrants are largely
a negative influence, purely economically speaking: they're a drag rather than
a gain.

Needless to say, given the political climate shift currently going through
Europe, nobody likes reporting this, as it seems rather unlikely to improve
anything.

~~~
uoaei
Europe doesn't quite know what to do with the massive influx of new faces.
Governments say 'integration' but they shove them off into corners of the city
because they can't afford to take the city housing from the established
population.

America was literally built by people showing up and carving out a life for
themselves. There is something about the culture that offers more room for
that to happen once you arrive.

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Alex3917
I'm 33 and my spouse is 31, we just had our first child. Of our 20 or so
closest white friends, there are exactly two couples with babies. Most aren't
even married yet.

This is in NYC so I expect that we're outliers, but given that fertility
starts declining significantly around 35, I've got to imagine our friend group
won't even be _close_ to the replacement rate. So unless we're not just
outliers but extreme outliers, I've got to imagine that fertility will decline
even more over the next five years or so. We're just now getting to the point
where it's time for the folks who graduated during the great recession and/or
who work in the gig economy to start having kids, so to whatever extent
economics play a role I don't think we've hit the bottom of the trough yet.

~~~
dd36
Agree. Student loan debt, lack of geographic distribution well-paying jobs,
high cost of living by rentier capitalists in the places where those jobs
exist means a crash in family creation. It takes comfort to start a family.

~~~
candiodari
The article does report this. The problem seems to be much more a lack of
ability to have children (or a perceived lack of ability), more so than a lack
of will.

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mr_tristan
The political implications are pretty interesting. It doesn't seem like rural
areas are "replenishing" at all, thus, getting older, which seems to coincide
with being generally more conservative and typically more "protective".

Also, rural areas don't seem to see much positive economic development these
days. Thus, it's likely that the rural vote will become even more distrusting
of central authority and extreme in general.

It sure seems like the political divide in the US will only deepen further,
and be susceptible to even more external manipulation.

What I didn't consider previously is that the opiate epidemic may also be
adding fuel to the fire.

~~~
candiodari
This might be a story of economic disaster areas turning "colored" rather than
a story of whites not having kids.

Of course the oldest of folks aren't moving out.

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dzdt
The major demographic story of the century will be peak population. For the
first time in the history of civilisation population will fall year after year
instead of growing. All sorts of economic things that people take for granted
will be questioned. Its much harder to fund pay-as-you-go retirement programs
if the workforce size is decreasing. How much of GDP growth is dependent on
population growth? You have to expect a decrease in average investment returns
when populations shrink. Etc. Etc.

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dsfyu404ed
I love a click-bait headline and identity politics for its own sake as much as
the next person but there's little mention of controlling for age or inter-
state migration.

Of course more white people are dying in AZ, FL, and other places white people
with the means tend to retire to. Of course more white people are dying than
being born in places that are mostly white and young people are moving away
from (rural areas).

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moomin
This could just be written “The baby boom are dying”. The baby boom was always
a one-off event, not a sustained change in behaviour. And given the
ridiculously poor choice they’ve made, whilst we’ll undoubtedly miss those we
love, collectively they will not be mourned.

The Baby Boom was not the greatest generation.

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smithmayowa
This phenomenon and a host of other's happening in U.S currently are the
reasons why trump was elected.

Edit: relax people I'm black not racist what I mean to say is that the rise of
China's economy and the dwindling influence of whites in the sphere of things
globally is what brought trump to power

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mullingitover
I thought he was elected due to a peculiarity in the US election system that
sometimes allows the person who got fewer votes to seize power.

~~~
thrill
If by "peculiarity" you mean "intentional design" to prevent tyranny of the
majority, and by "seize power", you mean peaceful formal transfer of
authority, then yes, you're correct.

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jefurii
I'm white. As I watch the news I can't help but think maybe this isn't such a
bad thing. All I see are white people bashing people of color, and other white
people standing on the sidelines doing nothing concrete to stop it. [edited
for clarity]

~~~
moufestaphio
>As I watch the news I can't help but think maybe this isn't such a bad thing.

Is this a round about way of saying 'if all the white people died it would fix
our problems'?

I personally don't think it's a very helpful sentiment to say things like "If
this group of people didn't exist, we wouldn't have a problem".

~~~
jefurii
> Is this a round about way of saying 'if all the white people died it would
> fix our problems'?

Nope, I've seen racism perpetrated by people of every color to know that
wouldn't solve anything. I guess it's an emotional response to the situation
in our country today. I'm frustrated and sad that people who look like me have
done and are doing so much bad stuff to people of color.

When you boil it down, much of the bad that's being done is in the name of
"preserving the white race" or some such. I don't think it's a bad thing to
preserve the memory of my ancestors, but if the only way to do that is to hurt
other people I don't think it's worth it.

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greatamerican
This is good! When combined with closed borders, it means there are more
resources to go around for the remaining people!

~~~
ElectricalPast
Older people are not as productive or innovative as younger people. Therefore,
there will be fewer things produced and less to go around for "the remaining
people."

Everyone ends up poorer.

