
How battery improvements will revolutionize the design of the electric car - iProject
http://gigaom.com/2013/02/10/how-battery-improvements-will-revolutionize-the-design-of-the-electric-car/
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rayiner
"Shai Agassi, the founder and former CEO of Better Place, also touted the
importance of the rate of battery innovation during his talk at the Cleantech
Investor Summit. He said the energy density of batteries goes up 15 percent
every 18 months; the cost per kilowatt hour goes down 15 percent every 18
months; the life cycles of the batteries (how many times it can charge and
recharge) goes up 15 percent every 18 months; and the cost per lifecycle-mile
does down 50 percent every 18 months. “If you don’t like the margins in this
[electric car] business just wait 12 months,” said Agassi."

I had no idea this was true. If so, that's very significant.

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btilly
It is true. And the trend has been obvious for longer than most people
realize.

Go read chapter 9 of _The Innovator's Dilemma_ , first published in 2000. This
chapter is based on an analysis he did of electric cars. Given the rate of
battery improvement he thought that a mass market affordable electric car
would be viable for the mass market somewhere around 2020.

At current trends, that's not too far off from when Tesla can be expected to
try to make a mass market electric car aimed at ordinary people.

~~~
keeperofdakeys
I'd say the barrier to mass-market electric cars isn't battery size, the Model
S can already go over 300 KMs on a single charge, which is very reasonable.
The lack of quick charging infrastructure is much more troubling. Without
quick charging, it takes many hours to charge the battery, making long-
distance driving infeasible. Quick-chargers also require a rather large supply
of power, far more then most homes, or even petrol stations would probably
have.

We also have a petrol station on nearly every street corner, but it will take
a long while for quick chargers to approach anywhere near this. There is also
already a split on adapter standards, which will take time to settle down.

~~~
mtgx
I don't think that will be much of a problem by 2020, either. Musk plans to
cover the country with his solar-powered free chargers within 5 years, and
he's already said they (now) charge half the battery in 30 minutes. That's not
too bad, but by 2020 I think we'll see faster chargers, too. There are already
much faster chargers that exist today, but perhaps they aren't that cheap.

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Aron
The electric engine itself weighs under 80lb, and gas can be fueled up in
under 5 minutes. What we need are better fuel cells it seems.

~~~
stcredzero
If you have enough current and are willing to stuff enough charging hardware
into the car, you can do a 60% charge in 5 minutes with today's technology.
It's just a matter of waiting for that hardware to go down in price so you can
stuff enough into the car to charge the whole battery pack in parallel. Some
of that will be helped by investment and R&D. Most of that will happen through
economies of scale and the marketplace.

But that said, fuel cells that can utilize natural gas or propane would be
fierce competition. That would give you better energy density, greater range,
and access to fuel is already widespread. Quick charging would be solved. The
only question left is the cost of ownership of the fuel cells.

~~~
henrikschroder
The Model S has the frunk, couldn't that be used to fit a _removable_ fuel
cell/small engine/whatever that can recharge the batteries while driving? So
normally you leave the frunk empty, but if you're going on a longer trip, you
pop in your extended engine, fill it up before you go, and stop for gas
regularly while on your trip?

~~~
stcredzero
_> The Model S has the frunk, couldn't that be used to fit a removable fuel
cell/small engine/whatever that can recharge the batteries while driving?_

The frunk would have to be specifically designed as an engine compartment,
both because of regulations, and because one wouldn't want fumes to harm the
passengers. (Less of an issue with hydrogen fuel cells.)

I think that's a great idea, though. Something like that would greatly
increase the utility of something like a Tesla Model S. Range, in particular
range in winter driving, would be greatly improved by the power generation and
the ability to use waste heat for passenger compartment heating.

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venomsnake
Well ... battery improvements will revolutionize everything. From big battery
packs for renewables buffers to return to propeller based aircafts, and maybe
even a tablet that could last a whole day linpack-ing.

The problem is that we have evolution now while what we need is revolution. We
need order of magnitude more density achieved without the use of rare or
exotic materials.

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maeon3
There are many more hurdles than price, energy density, and recharge-cycle
limit for batteries.

It's fantastic that 3 of the following 10 items are improving by leaps and
bounds. But if all 10 of them don't get better together, the Internal
combustion engine will still be making the Tesla Model S look like a rich
person's toy.

1\. How much does it weigh? If it weighs too much, maxing out on all the other
attributes doesn't matter.

2\. Does it harm anyone if a person is in close proximity when the battery is
crushed, shot, or wrecked in any way?

3\. Does the lifespan decrease with prolonged usage in -40F or 150F weather?
Does vibration break it?

4\. How long does it take to fill up assuming unlimited power resources?

5\. How long does it take to charge given roadside assistance resources?

6\. How many charge-discharge cycles?

7\. If you leave the car in a garage for 6 months is the battery bricked? What
is the discharge rate when left unattended?

8\. Cost of replacing the battery.

9\. Toxic chemicals or rare metals to make disposing the battery expensive or
bad for landfills?

10\. How quickly can you discharge the battery without it melting or
exploding?

The success of battery powered cars doesn't have to hinge on any of these
items if Gasoline prices were to triple while the cost of batteries stay the
same. Then battery powered cars will immediately dominate, and solar power
charging stations in your roof will be the only economical choice.

~~~
mistercow
>3\. Does the lifespan decrease with prolonged usage in -40F or 150F weather?
Does vibration break it?

That doesn't seem like an important consideration for the vast majority of
drivers.

~~~
maeon3
Next time, on a hottest day in the year, put your hand on the roof of your
car, after 5 minutes your hand will be cooked like an overdone steak. Combine
this with the fact that the driver may be racing to work on the hottest day,
while running the AC on full. And 150F is something that happens to the
battery every day for a month in many parts of America. And the battery has to
handle spike temperatures up to 200F. Racing the car up a hill in the Southern
texas sun? The Internal combustion engine can take it no problem because it's
made of metal and plastics that can survive 200F. The battery maybe not.

~~~
mistercow
150F, yes. But -40F isn't going to happen almost anywhere. Your car will get
hotter than the weather outside, but not colder.

