
We may have answered the Fermi Paradox: We are alone in the universe - pseudolus
https://qz.com/1314111/we-may-have-answered-the-fermi-paradox-we-are-alone-in-the-universe/
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KenanSulayman
Previous related discussion:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17389842](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17389842)
and
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17302924](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17302924).

Interview with Anders Sandberg (co-author in the cited paper) making clear
that he thinks there's still almost certainly life out there even though the
estimations are pessimistic: [https://futurism.com/life-universe-scientist-
drake-equation-...](https://futurism.com/life-universe-scientist-drake-
equation-study/)

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JoeAltmaier
The presumption to all these discussions is, that we're actually capable of
detecting intelligent life if its out there. Which is probably silly. We're
looking for radio waves. If we were talking about this in the 1800's, we'd be
looking for what? Telegraph signals?

In future, spacefaring civilizations will use something other than broadcast
EM fields to communicate. Maybe soliton lasers through the interstellar
plasma. Maybe highly encrypted light bursts that are actually
indistinguishable from noise (like, you know, the internet does now). And our
chance of intercepting point-to-point signals depends entirely on our planet
wandering into the path of one of these signals (if they were so stupid as to
even send it where they knew Earth would be later). And recognizing it as a
signal. And we're way out on the edge of things, so not actually between
anybody and anybody else.

Maybe, its a silent galaxy because nobody is talking _to us_.

~~~
armada651
The Drake equation assumes there are no limits to technology and that without
some kind of great filter the Universe would be so permeated with advanced
civilizations that signs of their existence is inescapable.

I find it more likely that the speed of light is the great filter and that
interstellar travel is so difficult that the rare instances of life are
unlikely to leave their star system never mind their galaxy group (which would
require faster-than-light travel).

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jcims
Previous related discussion:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17389842](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17389842)

The thing to keep in mind about the Drake equation is that the last two terms
of it, fc and L, concern themselves with 'detectability'. I didn't have enough
stamina to mine the treatment or modeling of these two terms from the paper,
but relative to the entire universe the number of civilizations of our stature
that we would plausibly 'detect' through spurious emission or environmental
impact (aka transit spectroscopy) would seem vanishingly small. Detection of a
civilization outside of our galaxy would likely be limited to Kardashev Type
II and greater civilizations that are intent on making contact with ours.

So, if you find a way to squeeze the word 'detectable' in the title, you're
probably closer to the actual findings of the paper (even though the paper
itself seems to lose track of that term).

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mratzloff
Previously discussed in June here[0] and here[1], both the original article
and another summary of it.

[0]
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17302924](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17302924)

[1]
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17389842](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17389842)

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TwoNineA
It's so arrogant to assume that intelligent life here that is made of the 5
most common elements in the universe (C, H, O, N and Other) cannot arise in
the myriad of other star systems out there.

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manicdee
Let’s see how common the arrangement of a world like Earth with such a large
moon actually is. Blame the Moon for life having enough time to evolve into
us.

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darepublic
Weirdly these same scientists who ask where is everyone? will deny Ufo stories
without looking, on principle alone.

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sandworm101
No. A conclusion saying that humanity is unique, even if true, is useless. The
only thing we can take from this is that we shouldnt bother looking. Ill
accept such defeatism only once im chatting by phone with my grandson who
lives in another solar system. Until then the search must continue.

~~~
db48x
You will never chat by phone with someone in another solar system. In
principle you could record a message which they will hear years later, and
then they'll record a reply which you'll hear even more years down the road;
hardly a chat.

Also, text will be much cheaper to send over that distance, so think telegrams
not telephones.

~~~
sandworm101
So my point stands. The question continues until we have perfected realtime
interstellar communications. Until we can do that we cannot be sure that
someone else isn't out there just ahead of our perceptions. If that tech never
happens, the search must continue.

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new_guy
We're not even alone on this planet, nevermind the universe!

~~~
gremlinsinc
Well if we were alone on earth, we'd not exist... What would we eat? Life must
have an ecosystem / food chain for energy.

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madballneek
I bet there's a ton of dinosaur-like planets out there.

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bodas
The Fermi paradox concerns the galaxy, not the rest of the universe which is
too far away to know anything about.

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ainiriand
I want to believe.

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sparkzilla
Famous last words.

