

Ask HN:  Is Apple on the decline? - EzGraphs

There have been a number of stories recently indicating that development of new/updated Apple products has sort of stalled.  A few die-hard Apple fans I know have migrated recently to non-Apple products (e.g. from iPhone to Android).  Is excitement about Apple beginning to wane?  Apple is obviously on a solid footing financially but are "alpha geeks" now are finding their shiniest new toys elsewhere?
======
mikecane
I don't think so. The WWDC presentations yesterday still contained only a
fraction of demos for what's coming in iOS6. If things were bad, I don't think
they would have added so much.

I understand how people can think this, seeing how the Mac Pro lacks a
compelling update, but Apple seems to have its own mercurial schedule these
days. Just when you think they've forgotten or ignored something, BAM!, they
announce a big change.

Still to come is a new iTunes and improved store discovery. Neither of these
are small things.

And iOS still has many strong apps Android doesn't. The real challenge will be
what happens when Windows 8 tablets start showing up and devs create for it.

~~~
EzGraphs
_The real challenge will be what happens when Windows 8 tablets start showing
up..._

It also seems like there have been more stories lately that portray Microsoft
and its products in a more positive light....

~~~
mikecane
For most people, Windows 8 is really an unknown. I've seen videos and read
posts, but until it's out and can be handled, it's all like a movie trailer to
me. Android hasn't gained the tablet traction of iOS, so maybe Windows 8 will.
It still has very large number of devs.

------
astrodust
Are "alpha geeks" leaving? No. Apple's never been stronger in that domain.
Conferences are virtually 100% MacBooks with a smattering of ironic Dell or
Lenovo systems. If anything it's even stronger since there's even more iPad
presence.

The people who are leaving are technology hipsters. They want to use the
things that haven't become popular, that are unappreciated. Apple's too
mainstream to be cool for people like that. They want problems to solve,
things to fiddle with, not finished products that anyone can use. They want
challenges and bragging rights for getting it to work.

It's not a case of elitism as easy as that would be to see. It's just that
Apple's platform is, as far as hackers go, quite "done" and there's not much
untamed land to occupy. The rugged frontier is far beyond iOS and OS X.

I'm sure a few of these people are working on a Raspberry Pi phone.

------
swah
Some % of users of anything is always unhappy. I'm unhappy with the Android
phone I've got because it has no official ICS yet, then I instal CM-based ROMs
which aren't perfect and get mad when the device has trouble.

It seems that Apple has one of the lowest % of unhappy users, and that means
it will not decline, but thrive...because they care about the experience so
much.

------
onitica
I use an Android phone. I primarily use Win 8 consumer preview (sometimes Win
7 or Ubuntu). I dislike Apple for many reasons. However, I bought one of the
new Macbook Airs yesterday. I'm going to dual-boot Win 8 on it. Currently,
they are just the best hardware for the price when it comes to ultrabooks in
my opinion.

When it comes to iOS, I don't think iOS or the Apple ecosystem will be the
dominant ecosystem. Their products are simply too expensive for the majority
of the world to afford, plus I think a merger between tablet and computer OS
like Win 8 is the future of computing. However, It think they will continue to
dominate the high end tech field, which has way better profit margins.

~~~
gspyrou
Would love it if you could share your experience running Win 8 in dual boot on
the new Macbook Air. ( I am also considering this option)

------
renownedmedia
I live in Ann Arbor, MI, and 90% of the laptop users (in coffee shops or other
public locations) use an Apple. So, from what I can see, they don't appear to
be declining.

~~~
Toph
Thats interesting. I've always thought that Apple was mainly dominant in
Silicon Valley, and MAYBE other tech hubs but thats pretty interesting.

~~~
vannevar
They're mainly dominant in coffee shops---their overall laptop share is less
than 10%.

~~~
Toph
I assure you in the Valley its not just in coffee shops. I've lived here for
5+ years and the mass majority of folks I come across are Mac users. While its
true Mac shares are probably still single digits, in this region, they are
dominating.

~~~
vannevar
I don't doubt it. I just thought it was funny that coffee shops were mentioned
specifically in multiple posts. Probably not a good random sample.

------
debacle
On the decline? Of course not. Have they peaked? Maybe.

~~~
nitid_name
Isn't decline the only thing to do after a peak?

~~~
endersshadow
You could plateau post-peak.

------
vannevar
No. The iTV is going to be a very big deal. Not sure what Apple will do for an
encore after that, but it should keep them on top and growing for the next
several years.

------
madoublet
I would not say that Apple is on the decline, but I do think that their
products have become less exciting as of late. For me, at least, I am much
more excited about the next version of Windows (8 and Phone 8) and Android
then I am about the next version of OSX and iOS.

