

Ovum Analysts: iPad Will Be Surpassed by Google by 2015 - solipsist
http://daringfireball.net/linked/2011/01/21/ovum-tablets

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tzs
Unless Google starts making tablet hardware by then and does an amazing job of
selling it, what the analyst is actually predicting is that by 2015, the
combined sales of dozens of Apple competitors will be slightly ahead of
Apple's sales.

Assuming he's right--so what? It would be at least as accurate to headline the
analysts prediction as "By 2015, Apple will still be the dominant tablet maker
by far".

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KeithMajhor
Is Gruber trolling on purpose? His posts that make it to the HN always turn
into flamewars. Why is everyone here so interested in what he has to say?

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ryandvm
Exactly. I don't even need to read Gruber any more because I invariably
already know where he comes down on any given Apple issue. Wake me when Gruber
makes a post that _isn't_ pornographically pro-Apple.

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dannyr
Ovum may have been wrong on the IPhone but that doesn't mean that Android
tablets would not outsell the IPad by 2015.

Remember, a lot of people back in 2008 were saying that it will take a long
time for Android to surpass the IPhone. It took Android only about 2 years to
achieve that.

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Someone
_Ovum may have been wrong on the IPhone but that doesn't mean that Android
tablets would not outsell the IPad by 2015._

Indeed. This is nothing more than an ad hominem on Ovum. It does have some
verifiable truth, but nothing that helps us judge how well Ovum can predict
the future. N=1, and we aren't told how many other of Ovum's earlier
predictions he checked. So, all we learn from it is that Ovum has not always
made perfect predictions.

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sjs
tl;dr Pundit says Google tablets will outnumber iPads in 2015, Gruber implies
that they might not.

This is not news.

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solipsist
While this may not be news, HN welcomes submissions of other types as well.
Most of us would agree that interpretations or analyses are acceptable. Even
if those analyses are only a few words, they are analyses nevertheless.

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jsz0
I don't see Android tablets taking off as quickly as Android SmartPhones did.
There are more credible competitors on the horizon. Most of the companies that
totally missed the boat on competing with the iPhone are in a much better
position today. HP/Palm & RIM of course but also Microsoft who I think has an
opportunity to make inroads in the tablet-as-productivity-tool market someday.
Any of these companies could stand to capitalize on Google's cat-herding
problem or Apple's authoritarian pitfalls. Android/iOS will probably still be
the big targets but I don't see the others being such _distant_ competitors
this time around.

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yequalsx
I remember when the iPad first came out and many predicted failure. Who wants
a big iPhone? That's was a typical question.

Less than a year later the debate is about which tablet will win.

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dablya
I'm an android fanboy, and I'm still having a hard time understanding the need
for a tablet form factor without something similar to the now canceled windows
courier interface....

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yequalsx
For me it's a laptop, desktop replacement. I don't do much content creation
outside of work on a computer so I don't need those form factors and I like
the portability, video capabilities, and being able to read books from it.

The Courier....that was the only Microsoft product I was ever excited about. I
can't believe they killed it though. They are blinded by Apple.

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ZeroGravitas
I thought Android tablets sales were already at 25% last quarter. It wouldn't
particularly shock me if they had 36% (and Apple had 35%) in four years time.

But since the introduction and success of the iPad seems to have been the
trigger for all of Microsoft's partners to think they can finally make a go of
a linux-based OS I personally would wait for the dust to settle before making
any predictions.

