
Predicting the future of the Internet is easy - jeffmiller
http://cdixon.org/2011/01/13/predicting-the-future-of-the-internet-is-easy-anything-it-hasnt-yet-dramatically-transformed-it-will/
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patio11
Some day, real people (non-techies, non-Westerners, people who are not
20-something males, etc) will almost certainly be about as plugged in as the
mean HNer is currently. I cannot conceive of this happening without generating
staggering amounts of wealth.

Groupon just invented a new industry with yearly sales which are quickly going
to eclipse 10^10 dollars by figuring out how to do distribution for local
businesses over the Internet. I think in 2020 that will be remembered by
historians with special interest in modestly successful advances. Somebody is
going to do something as revolutionary as Groupon/Google/Facebook to a market
as big as "healthcare" or "India", and (to misquote an amusing line from
Social Network), they'll be able to buy Harvard and use it as their pingpong
table.

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InclinedPlane
It's easy to forget how young and immature the internet and even the software
industry is. Software development is still in its alchemy stages, with as many
(if not more) snake oil salesmen as there are people doing sound, repeatable
engineering and science. And as much content as is on the internet today it's
still a far cry from all of it, which is a near inevitability at this point.
Every book, every magazine, every audio recording, every movie, every tv show,
every home video, every bit of information that was ever typed or written onto
a piece of paper, everything. As we get closer to that things will change, we
have only just barely and experimentally started putting anything of substance
online and the result has been staggering.

Nobody has seen anything yet.

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ABrandt
Im not sure the last time Chris made the front page of HN, but for some reason
reading this was absolutely a breath of fresh air for me. The internet will
keep doing its thing whether facebook IPOs or the 'bubble' bursts. Focus on
your own work, the stuff that really matters, and you will inevitably succeed.
Whatever the next big wave is, you'll miss it if you're too busy fretting
about what has already come and gone.

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sambe
I'm not sure finance & law are of no value. Whatever may be wrong with the
financial system, it isn't entirely maintained for the benefit of $GS (or hate
figure du jour). I can imagine some of its functions replaced by less formal
structures though.

Law is much harder to see replaced, even if flawed & incredibly inefficient.
Law of little value? Shall we try without?

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eru
With simpler laws, you might get by with more stupid lawyers.

Like, managing an index fund can be a part time job or even done by a
computer, compare that to the hot shots that hedge funds attract for their
active trading.

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zdw
_convincing the upcoming generation to innovate in sectors that have a direct
impact on the quality of peoples’ lives (Internet, healthcare, energy,
education) instead of wasting time on sectors that were historically
prestigious (e.g. finance and law) but add little to negative economic and
societal value._

And that, my friends, is why we're in this mess to begin with - industries
that don't generate any progress, and therefore should not become profit
centers. Just like ISP's and other utilities, in an idea world they should be
regulated and forced to compete on a fair and open market.

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thewordpainter
that was my favorite line as well. now that startup pursuits have become semi-
mainstream, i think you'll see the next generation of parents less inclined to
push their kids down a carved out path.

if parents really want to see their kids "make them proud," they won't push
them towards a law degree...but rather encourage them to change the world.

one of these days, these law students will figure out that there's just not as
much work as there once was and we could really use their expertise to move
the ball forward instead of slowing things down.

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benreesman
He highlights finance as one of the industries inevitably disrupted. I hope
he's right but I have personally always viewed finance industry profits as a
tax that cannot be avoided at any cost less than the cost of starting over. Is
there hope that I'm mistaken?

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_delirium
One possible example that already happened: The internet contributed to the
more-or-less death of the traditional full-service stock broker in the
late-90s, with the rise of electronic discount brokerages like E*Trade.

I do agree that it's not clear it has or will in aggregate reduce the finance
industry's take, though. More comprehensive disruption of the finance sector
by technology would find a way to reduce finance's total cost, the way VOIP
completely disrupted traditional telecoms. Finance firms seem remarkably adept
at keeping the total take from falling overall, though, even when particular
fees are forced downwards.

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hessenwolf
Much of the mathematics of finance is actually as new as the internet. It has
yet to be automated...

Also, the mathematics of finance is still very, very much under development.
Volatility of volatility model, anybody?

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Vivtek
Ha, I liked this one: "we’ll look back in amazement that in 2011 we still used
brokers to help us find houses" - I haven't used a broker to _find_ a house in
12 years, actually.

