
Pg: I've never met anyone with a gut feel for exponential growth - handedness
https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1235247452145451013
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rs23296008n1
This person should look harder. I know plenty of people used to operating at
exponential growth and the growing pains it implies. Plenty of financial and
biological systems require it.

The realistic view is also that nothing stays at exponential growth forever.
It usually tapers off until something changes. Yet people demand everything
stays the same with growth year-on-year at same rate. Past performance does
not imply future performance but useful patterns can be found if you pay
attention.

Extrapolation requires experience. Easy way or hard way.

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downerending
Worse still, exponential growth combined time-lagged observations (e.g.,
asymptomatic infection period, lack of testing, bureaucratic delay in
reporting, etc.).

If you wait until it _seems_ like the right time to act, you will have waited
far too long.

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dekhn
nearly everything I've expected to grow exponentially has eventually ended up
being sigmoidal.

Also every physics person I studied with who worked on radioactivity has a gut
feel for exponential growth and decay. Every statistician, and every computer
programmer. Also most biologists. He probably just interacts with a lot of
normies.

