
Your prediction of Twitter’s future is wrong - karangoeluw
https://medium.com/p/your-prediction-of-twitter-s-future-is-wrong-a401db987e65
======
tzaman
> Twitter is the greatest social platform ever built. Period.

For you. Not necessarily everyone else. Just saying this because the post is
titled that everyone is wrong, so I expected some facts, not just "cuz I said
so"

> No other platform gives me a chance to talk to people like...

Tweeting at celebrities (and hoping they tweet back) is not really a
conversation.

\-- Don't get me wrong, I like Twitter, but not for these reasons.

~~~
bitL
Celebrities usually have PR teams handling their Twitter. Have fun with the
illusion you are talking to the real person, not to a curated proxy...

~~~
sandworm101
They have and use accounts, but not under real names. As soon as they see any
spike in followers, anything more than their few friends/employees which would
suggest a leak, everything is deleted. If you are into cyberstalking then you
can sometimes find these accounts by tracking a celebs movements against
likely tweets. No doubt TMZ has people on this. Since the iPhone fiasco many
young celebs have shunned email. Twitter can be a functional replacement, at
least for all the inane chat.

~~~
icebraining
Why don't they just set those accounts as protected?

~~~
sandworm101
Because they are lazy. These aren't hardened security pros. Celebs are
generally very young, poorly educated[1] impatient and impulsive. By the
nature of their work they are also fashion conscious and eager to follow
online trends. Tech-specific security features aren't a priority, until they
are crying in their lawyer's office desperately pleading for him to to get
that picture removed from the internet.

[1] Really. Look into your favourite stars. Many did not graduate highschool,
or got an "on set" education for a GED. Child stars and models have to really
work at getting any notion of a proper education. Basic reading skills are
often an issue on set. This sometimes comes up when applying for work permits,
say to work on a film in Vancouver. Immigration officials sometimes baulk at
the notion of an uneducated 20yo claiming a unique skill warranting a special
visa.

Google "on location education services" for a view of what many celebs grow up
with.

------
volaski
> 1\. Twitter is the greatest social platform ever built. Period.

This is like saying "Imma let you finish, but Beyonce had one of the best
videos of all time. because she had one of the best videos of all time.
Period."

> 2\. No other platform gives me a chance to talk to people like Marc
> Andreessen, Chris Sacca, Tim O'Reilly etc. Twitter empowers us all. Think
> about how much 1:1 time you can get with influencers on platforms like
> Facebook or Snapchat. These people won’t take the time out to send you a
> snap.

Welcome to 2016. This guy apparently hasn't used Snapchat before. I can
already see a lot of celebrities using Snapchat Stories to interact with their
fans in much more intimate ways than Twitter can ever facilitate.

3\. Facebook is not a fair comparison. But I quit Facebook because it made me
unhappy and dissatisfied. Twitter makes me smart.

The reason Twitter is having hard time is because of all the competing
products that have surpassed it, not just Facebook. There are hard numbers
that tell us Twitter is losing people's attention. One person's denial won't
change that.

~~~
karangoeluw
> This guy apparently hasn't used Snapchat before

I have, and I quit. For the same reason that I quit FB for. It wasn't adding
anything meaningful to my life.

> There are hard numbers that tell us Twitter is losing people's attention

Can you point me to some, please?

~~~
volaski
> I have, and I quit. For the same reason that I quit FB for. It wasn't adding
> anything meaningful to my life.

What is the point of this comment? It doesn't add value to the thread. My
point was that it's not just Twitter that lets celebrities interact with their
fans anymore. Your opinion is really irrelevant here.

> Can you point me to some, please?

If you've been living under the rocks, there are now messaging apps with more
active users than twitter, and some almost catching up. If you're curious just
do some google search. 5 years ago "social" basically meant Twitter or
Facebook. It is not true anymore.

------
woodruffw
This doesn't really address the popular prediction - that Twitter is going to
continue to struggle with monetization and that user growth will continue to
remain flat.

Twitter may be the "greatest social platform ever built," but it wasn't built
on a very strong financial foundation.

~~~
karangoeluw
Have you heard of Uber?

~~~
woodruffw
Yes...what's the connection?

------
paulpauper
_Facebook is not a fair comparison. But I quit Facebook because it made me
unhappy and dissatisfied. Twitter makes me smart._

How did this even get to the front page? HN needs some better quality control.

Lately been seeing a lot of mediocre medium articles get on the front page.

------
yoodenvranx
Can somebody tell me why Twitter, Instagram and all the other big social media
sites do not offer something like hats (TF2) or weapon skins (CS:GO)?

I am pretty sure there are millions of people who would be totally happy to
increase their social credibility with a platinum-twitter-supporter-star in
their profile. Make people think that they are not a true Instagram
professional without a diamond Instragram supporter badge on their profile.

A basic silver supporter start costs 5$ a year and the exlusive diamond ones
go for 100$ a year.

There is not much effort in implementing this and if done right you have a
constant stream of revenue.

~~~
throwaway2048
The main reason that sort of model works for valve so well is threefold.

Valve is at best, a medium sized company so its more worthwhile for them to
bother from a profit per employee perspective (hats make them a lot of money
in a relative sense, but it wouldn't be a notable blip on facebook or twitters
radar)

because...

Valves market is almost 100% heavily committed and "entrenched" customers,
people that have steam accounts worth $100s/$1000s, there is a good chance
that they are already capturing most of the value in the "games hat market"
dispite being only a fraction of the total game market.

because...

Valve is an extremely well liked and trusted company by their customers,
likely because other players in the gaming space have been exploitative and
abusive to truely mustache twirling comicbook villan levels. People have less
worry sinking a lot of money into their platform because they both like them,
and are generally of the opinion that even if they screw up, they usually make
things right. How many people love facebook or twitter as a company the way
people love valve? not many id warrent.

It should be noted, hats started off as a thing at valve BECAUSE PEOPLE WERE
COMPLAINING THERE WAS NO EASY WAY TO GIVE VALVE MORE MONEY. How many people
are lining up to shower zuckerberg with more money?

Its just not in the DNA of a company like facebook to engender that sort of
rabbid fanboyism, maybe it was for twitter once upon a time, but they have
burned community goodwill by the railcar-full.

~~~
yoodenvranx
I think you are right, thx for the input!

One exception I see is Instagram and the whole fitness model industry. These
are people who are mostly just famous because they look beautiful amd sporty.
Some of them earn money as a personal coach or by offering custom fitness
programs. But none of them are truly "professional". I think if Instagram
would offer some sort of Diamond-Instagram-supporter-badges those people would
invest in this to look more professional. All their fame is based on Instagram
so why not show their support? And if one fitness guy starts with it the other
have to follow because they'd look "unprofessional" without such a badge.

Also there are tons of rich people on Instagram flaunting their money and for
them a Diamond-encrusted-Instagram-Supporter badge would just enhance their
prestige. They could easily price the highest tier at something ridicously
high like 500 $/year and those people would buy it just to enhance their
prestige compared to their peers.

------
soyiuz
Twitter is in trouble if they are on a path to competing with Facebook. They
are fine if they manage to reflect on what made them successful in the first
place: information constraint and a small(ish) but passionate community.

The culprit is diluting the product to chase after growth. This is a losing
strategy. They should instead think of catering to their core users and
monetizing. They will disappear overnight should the core exit.

------
lindig
Nobody is denying that Twitter is a great tool for a lot of people, the author
included. But this pool of people is too small for Twitter's investors. And
the way Twitter works currently, the pool looks difficult to grow. Hence all
the handwringing about how to make Twitter appeal to a larger audience without
losing the power users it already has.

~~~
karangoeluw
The problem is market expectations (which is Twitter's fault). Twitter cannot
be Facebook scale. I mean nothing can be Facebook scale at this point.

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ajkjk
This appears to be an argument that Twitter is unique among the mainstream
social networks, which is irrelevant to my predictions of their future. Which
of these statements addresses why they're going to stay afloat without being
profitable, as users move on, or as advertising's efficacy stales?

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paulpauper
What if two people make opposite predictions about Twitter's future? Would
they both be wrong?

------
robk
I don't see how Twitter makes him smart but Facebook doesn't. I get just as
much thoughtful conversation and content from FB as Twitter. This is just one
random, insignificant dude's rant.

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thieving_magpie
If he thinks twitter is cool, wait til he hears about email!

------
neutronicus
If there is a subreddit for your community, chances are you'll get a chance to
engage directly with leading figures in it.

Just sayin'.

