Ask HN: What is your one tech prediction for 2018? - joshdance
======
jxub
First LIDAR system in JavaScript comes out in May along with a Medium article.
By December, web developers can choose between 27 new LIDAR frameworks.

Trump is kicked out of the presidency. Spends the rest of his life as a
prolific twitch streamer. He also creates a GitHub profile where he hosts a
TrumpScript [1] fork and an Awesome-Me list.

Bitcoin transaction speed drops to 1TPS because of its price hike back to 20k,
melting a couple of glaciers in Greenland in its way. Coinbase hasn't fixed
its customer support yet.

First success in farming CRISPR potatoes in Novaya Ziemlia. Putin decides
Russia needs to open a vodka destillery in Arctic by 2020 and makes it part of
the Russia Forward plan.

Yandex Research starts working on blockchain for alcohol supply chains.
Navalny makes a career change beginning his brief, but fruitful stint as a
Blockchain Researcher Senior for the company, before pulling out a Litvinenko
due to being a nasty code reviewer.

We discover that Meltdown bug can also affect sex toys. Kids grow depraved
with the knowledge of what their mum had this day in her handbag.

[1]
[https://github.com/samshadwell/TrumpScript](https://github.com/samshadwell/TrumpScript)

------
tonyedgecombe
Apple will release a new MacBook with no screen, keyboard, trackpad or ports.
Conversing with it will be like a scene from 2001.

Google will retire search and replace it with something mildly social.

Elon Musk will announce something so bizarre that only a person completely
isolated from humanity could think it's a good idea.

Oracle will continue to screw its customers (this is the only one I'm certain
about).

Windows revenue will decline to less than 5% of Microsoft's total revenue. On
the subject of Windows, win32 will finally be retired unless you want to run
your legacy apps in the cloud.

~~~
subashkc1
Apple will release a new MacBook with no screen, keyboard, trackpad or ports.
Conversing with it will be like a scene from 2001. - This is the only one I'm
certain about. :)

------
philtar
BigCo gets hacked. Everyone loses their mind for two days.

Google sunsets one of their services. And releases something that copies a
service from one of their competitors but in an incredibly tone deaf way.

YouTuber does something terrible. Everyone is disgusted. Gains 10 million
followers.

Apple releases an iPhone. Nothing new about it. Calls it the best/greatest
iPhone to date.

Bitcoin gains x%. Loses x%. Is outlawed in country X. Regulated in country Y.

Redditors discover that reddit is not the bastion of free speech it pretends
to be. They get angry and go to another site only to return the next week
under a new subreddit.

I can go on.

~~~
jazoom
> Google sunsets one of their services. And releases something that copies a
> service from one of their competitors but in an incredibly tone deaf way.

... And releases four more video/messaging apps along with three more
banking/wallet apps just in case their current properties fail.

------
scalesolved
Rather than a doom and gloom prediction, I believe that 2018 will seem remote
work growing significantly and hopefully with the benefit of bringing money
and new services to towns and regions that have suffered brain/money drain
over the last 50 years.

------
muzani
2018: Bitcoin goes full bubble. You'll have more mainstream experts implying
it will hit $1M. The more technical people will pull out entirely or try out
altcoins. Bitcoin has a limited window to step up their game. Possibly see ETH
take over or even Bitcoin Cash.

It would either be year of the altcoin or crypto crash.

Longer term: Increased H1B restrictions and high Silicon Valley land prices
would make investors look for alternative cities for early stage investments.
It's unlikely this city will be in the US.

Also I foresee "startup" not being a buzzword anymore, replaced by "side
project".

~~~
scalesolved
Bitcoin Cash is extremely unlikely to overtake Bitcoin, way less volume and
it's losing the appeal of faster and cheaper transactions. Bitcoin has a huge
chunk of the current crypto currency market and a massive lead in mind share.

~~~
muzani
You're probably right. I just heard that Stripe is using BCH and not BTC.

------
headsoup
Year of the catastrophe.

It seems there keeps being warnings that the big happy run of things is not
eternal, but these are ignored once any 'hiccup' goes away.

Perhaps war, perhaps market collapse (led by Bitcoin?), perhaps superbug,
perhaps major hack of one of the FAANGs, perhaps lending collapse (again),
perhaps natural disaster.

Otherwise we're going to have to find new careers for all those people
displaced by AI and automation, etc!

------
rayj
The median home price in Seattle proper passes $1million. SF median home price
passes $2million. Microsoft/google busses start to get rocks thrown at them,
hire private security escorts.

~~~
ladberg
I'll leave this here: [https://www.cultofmac.com/523837/apple-shuttle-buses-
come-re...](https://www.cultofmac.com/523837/apple-shuttle-buses-come-
repeated-attack/)

------
tagami
Facebook experiences its MySpace moment

~~~
dabockster
You mean the point where everyone asks "why am I still here?"

------
sudouser
more inequality, even greater divide between techies and other classes, just
look at the streets of San Francisco, that’s where the future is headed

but instead of a dark grim place blade-runner like, it is going to at least
look colorful and sanitized with pretty google logos :)

~~~
closeparen
I predict that techies and other classes will be increasingly in the same boat
as real estate prices grow beyond even high-end tech compensation. San
Francisco prices out tech and becomes entirely the domain of real estate
investors and the global .01%. Traffic congestion and transit crowding let up
as the occupancy rate plummets. Some form of vacancy tax is passed, but it’s
toothless.

Might not be this year, but within the next 5.

~~~
sudouser
forgot about google building a city nearby ,so probably prices will plummet
which means even more companies will want to establish in sf ...

anyway , will be an interesting place with the 0.01% alongside bums...

~~~
closeparen
10,000 homes is more of a village, but ok. Prices plummeting would be great!

------
timmm
Meal Replacement Companies such as Soylent will continue to experience healthy
growth.

Chip Manufacturers like NVDIA and AMD will continue to experience over average
growth.

Meditation will grow and we will become aware of the mental health of
individuals (Trump etc)

Machine learning will be the best field to be involved with.

Probability of a bad event Nuclear/Bio/AI increases.

Bezos will emerge as the best entrepreneur of all time.

------
quickthrower2
This is the year where all the money sloshing around drys up with increasing
interest rates, and startups need to focus on being profitable from day one
(or burn up the founders savings), rather than raising money from the market.
That means different products get developed.

If this happens expect layoffs from tech companies that "doing well" but
keeping their profits low.

~~~
fuqted
During a record year of questionable ICO's (itself creating a vacuum for the
non-questionable variety)?

You're definitely going against the wind with that bet.

~~~
quickthrower2
ICOs are a different beast.

------
jitendrac
IPhone sales drop and increased dissatisfaction from people

Back off of google AMP

Duckduckgo will get notable search market

Crypto bubble burst/starting to burst

Better Adoption of EVs

Renewable energy production will increase

Realestate bubble will get bigger in big cities

possible restriction on TiO2 based coatings paints

Possible reduction in price of NAND flash/DRAM and so of SSDs and RAM

First available RISC-V based processor preview

Samsung to overtake Intel as biggest fab manufacturer

------
jotjotzzz
Bank runs drive crypto up.

Real estate will crash (again).

Blockchain voting.

AI as political representatives.

Self-driving car advancements.

Mobile payment will increase in the U.S. (just as it already is in China).

Facebook partners with crypto to launch mobile payments.

Google partners with Disney.

Netflix acquires major U.S. studios.

Jeff Bezos cheats on his wife.

Bill Gates wins Nobel prize.

EU total collapse.

Mars space race begins.

Rise in sea-level averted by new energy sources

~~~
elyrly
*[C-Level Role] cheats on their significant other

------
brandfountain
True center of consciousness discovered, upending AI models mimicking organic
systems.

------
tmaly
Changes ZIRP in 2018 by the Federal Reserve in the US will generate volatility
in the markets.

This will shake up the tech sector a bit, and companies that are not cash flow
positive will be forced to layoff tech workers.

------
pasbesoin
Vested interests continue to pwn the extant Internet.

Counter-move? Create and maintain control of distinct physical layers.

Will Musk and company provide one of these? An open question, for me.

------
Heraclite
Kotlin becomes very popular, takes a significant part in backend development.

------
mixedtech
blockchain all the things

------
nakedgrape
There will be more technology.

