
Japan’s Self-Defence Forces Are Beginning to Focus on China - Sami_Lehtinen
https://www.economist.com/asia/2019/04/20/japans-self-defence-forces-are-beginning-to-focus-on-china
======
socrates1998
What's really interesting is to the common Japanese person, their are two
threats, China and the Japanese military itself.

Clearly, they worry about China, but they really worry about how the Japanese
military answered to no one in the last decade of Imperial Japan.

This is what concerns a lot of Japanese people. The military wrote a check
that the Japanese people had to cash.

~~~
corey_moncure
It may be comforting to realize that when Japan entered World War 2, only 73
years had elapsed since the transition from a feudal system into a
constitutional democracy. There were still people old enough to remember the
old system. It's 78 years since 1941.

~~~
drak0n1c
France experienced a similar trajectory. The sudden egalitarianism of the
French Revolution allowed for a much larger and more dynamic military, which
in turn enabled the Napoleonic Wars.

Massive populations and political revolution are the common cause. Japan
doesn't have the conditions for either, even if Abe achieved his relatively
anodyne constitutional amendments. China is more susceptible to adopting that
expansionary role, and it doesn't have a constitution binding its hands.

~~~
Tsubasachan
If you look at Chinese history they are remarkably non expansionist. Chinese
power has always come from their culture and trade.

Japan uses Chinese characters not because they were ever invaded by a Chinese
army. Soft power isn't a modern American invention. The Chinese mastered it a
thousand years ago!

~~~
scarmig
> Chinese history they are remarkably non expansionist

That's a narrative story, not a history.

"China" has never been a continuously consolidated political entity. The PRC
(and the ROC, and previous imperial governments) find it a useful myth to
equate its current geography of control with a tradition that hearkens back
through millenia, but it's quite simply not. The Qin dynasty initially
controlled the area of a small province, and conquered its neighboring state
rivals one by one to establish a dominion over them; it fell, just as
countless other empires fell, leading to centuries of alternating
fragmentation and consolidation.

Even in modern times, various political entities that position themselves in
the history of China have engaged in expansionist colonial missions over a
range of territories, from Xinjiang to Taiwan to Tibet. Even Inner Manchuria
is only considered "part of China" because the Qing dynasty ruled it and China
simultaneously. (As an interesting aside, contemporaneous Han historiography
considered the Qing ruling class foreign usurpers; it was only in the 20th
century that ROC/PRC historiography decided to incorporate the Qing Dynasty
into China's lineage, for political reasons.)

------
sremani
The better way of looking at it is that American guarantees can only mean so
much. A DPRK with a nuke is different kind of threat to US, compared to Japan
compared to South Korea. There is already enough gap, the Japanese realized
that leaving their security with Americans entirely is not a strategy. So they
are walking back from the pacifist constitutions and militarizing.

In the short-to-mid term its good for US, a formidable ally with world class
navy! But a Japan with powerful navy cant help itself but wants to dominate
Pacific, that what happened in December of 1941, the rest is history.

~~~
raiflip
The world in 1941 was a lot different. Back then, one would be forgiven for
viewing history as either colonize or be colonized.

This is not to defend Japan's actions, they did totally unjustified things in
China, and as it turned out after Japan modernized, the west never posed a
threat (as WWII would wipe out the Europeans ability to colonize and the US
had no interest in it.

The point being, now our perspective on history is very different.
Colonization is a thing of the past. Respecting borders is by and large an
unimpeachable norm across most of the world. I don't think Japan will feel the
same pressures.

~~~
zipwitch
Respecting borders has been an "unimpeachable norm" for how long, though?
Since 1945, at most. That's not even 80 years - just long enough for us to
forget _why_ we made it verboten in the first place.

I fear that Crimea and the Golan Heights will turn out to be the first drops
in a devastating torrent.

~~~
dogma1138
Cyprus has been occupied by Turkey a NATO member for how long now and you are
worried about the Golan Heights?

As far as Crimea goes the world is much better off with it than the
alternative of forcing Russia’s hand.

No one that can read a map ever thought Russia would give up their only warm
water port, it’s also the reason why they went to Syria it’s their only port
with access to the med that doesn’t have a NATO toll booth controlling it.

Russia is a land locked country with all of its strategic assets and
everything it cares about within strike distance of NATO FOBs.

The US and NATO isn’t stupid they won’t be bogged down fighting over the
rubbles of Stalingrad and they are much better logistically equipped to fight
in winter than Napoleon.

If a conventional conflict breaks out NATO tanks would find themselves on the
outskirts of Moscow well before Russia can reach Warsaw yet alone Berlin.

The buffer zone of the former Baltic and Soviet states has eroded and as much
as the Baltics fear Russia if I was a Russian general I would be binge
drinking and for a good reason just to stop my balls from shivering.

Russia has no strategic depth, it’s land locked and thanks to improvements in
air and missile defense also air and even space locked.

Their geographical actions are about as predictable as playing risk with a 3
year old but just like that game the biggest risk is you have no idea if and
when they’ll throw a tantrum and smash the board.

------
daodedickinson
They didn't just start focusing on China now. Not sure what prompted this
particular title, since there isn't much substance in the paragraphs before
the paywall.

~~~
onetimemanytime
Well, they feared an USSR invasion. Now that's gone and Russia alone can't
really invade Japan. China can.

~~~
kochikame
China is barely capable of taking over Taiwan without enormous cost and
material and human loss. Japan is far, far harder to "invade" and is barely
even something they would consider.

Even an "attack" (something short of an invasion), consisting of surgical
strikes (and what, nukes?) would be prohibitively costly in every way possible
and would also be 100% guaranteed to bring the US in to the conflict.

The Chinese government likes having Japan around as a useful lightning
conductor for public anger, which redirects protests away from them. They are
Japan's biggest trading partner. They are not going to invade any country this
useful and valuable to them.

Please don't use a word like "invade" lightly; it's very, very far from ever
being a reality.

------
doktrin
Is there an easy way to bypass the paywall? Wouldn't mind subscribing to the
economist tbh, just not right this instant.

~~~
drak0n1c
Use Outline, here is the outlined version:
[https://outline.com/9xnM42](https://outline.com/9xnM42)

