
A Primer on the Doomsday Argument - otoolep
http://www.anthropic-principle.com/?q=anthropic_principle/doomsday_argument
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basicplus2
"Suppose everyone accepts the self-sampling assumption and everyone has to bet
on whether they are in a blue or red cubicle. Then 90% of all persons will win
their bets and 10% will lose. Suppose, on the other hand, that the self-
sampling assumption is rejected and people think that one is no more likely to
be in a blue cubicle; so they bet by flipping a coin. Then, on average, 50% of
the people will win and 50% will lose."

This bit is wrong because if everyone flipped a coin roughly half will pick
blue and half will pick red and roughly 90% who flipped and got blue will be
right but only 10% of those who flipped and got red will be right.

