
It’s not exponential: An economist’s view of the epidemiological curve - hhs
https://voxeu.org/article/it-s-not-exponential-economist-s-view-epidemiological-curve
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dv_dt
A key glossed over point is that the exponential curve only becomes am
epidemiological curve with active and effective intervention (or completely
skipped: a slightly different path with some biological bottleneck - e.g.
running out of people to infect - we don't want that either). The flu is only
regularly an epi curve because we already have reasonably effective standing
measures against it.

On coronavirus, you can't just sit back and expect the exponential curve to
transform to an epi curve on a novel virus without a lot of work and
coordination.

