
Up to 80% of Covid-19 infections are asymptomatic - bookofjoe
https://thorax.bmj.com/content/early/2020/05/27/thoraxjnl-2020-215091.full
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officialjunk
where's the follow up testing on this group of people to see if they
eventually have symptoms. this has been done in other countries, such as italy
and after 3 weeks 90% has symptoms. this data point alone only shows that
there is an incubation period. drawing this conclusion that 80% will remain
asymptomatic is misinformation.

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pacala
The lack of follow up is indeed rather frustrating. On the plus side, the
article reports that they kept the people in quarantine 8-12 days after the
testing round. From other sources on the Web, "on average symptoms appear
after 5 days and most people with symptoms had them by day 12". While the
study has probably accounted for most of the symptomatic cases, a 30 day
follow up would be of great value, including to validate the incubation period
estimations.

[https://www.webmd.com/lung/coronavirus-incubation-
period](https://www.webmd.com/lung/coronavirus-incubation-period)

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aaron695
Expert comments FWIW -

[https://www.scimex.org/newsfeed/expert-reaction-how-
common-i...](https://www.scimex.org/newsfeed/expert-reaction-how-common-is-
asymptomatic-covid-19)

~~~
rurban
No opinions needed, there are too many opinions already floating around. Fact
is that the ratio is 1/10, according to all antibody tests worldwide. This
also matches the IFR/CRF discrepancy of 0.3%/3.4%.

So 90% is more likely.

And to the opinions: The extremely high dark figure could explain the high
reproduction rate of r3.5. People who think they've only got a cold happily
will infect others.

