
North Korea fires missile over Japan - jlipps
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/28/north-korea-fires-missile-japan
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monksy
This leads to the next thing. Violating Japan's airspace with a missile may be
a provocation for war. If that's the case, you're going to hear from our (US)
president that we're officially going to war or conflict with North Korea.
Unfortunately, in this case, I believe that Bannon is right. (We're screwed in
that situation)

~~~
ajross
We aren't going to war, at least not intentionally. The downsides of a
conflict with a nuclear state, even one with questionable capabilities like
the DPRK, vastly outweigh the upsides. And Kim knows this, which is why he
feels free to continue to call our bluffs.

Trump's inability to bluff (or communicate with precision in general) has
really messed things up at this point. I mean, taking his words as spoken he
has already threatened to nuke them if they even so much as continue issuing
threats. Not only did they up the threat ante within hours of that remark
(c.f. "attack the waters around Guam"), they've now put a weapon straight
through an ally's airspace. Where do we go from here?

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jonnathanson
Where do we go from here? To the very brink, at least if Trump is left to his
own (mobile) devices. My guess is he will reroute a CBG or two towards the
Korean peninsula and make a lot of bluster about whatever new line he is
prepared to draw.

Meanwhile, everyone else works frantically on a backchannel plan that allows
both Kim and Trump to save some face. I don't see how this happens unless
brokered by China, who emerges the big winner on the world stage.

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baklavabook
As much as I hate Trump, none of this is his fault. If we have to address this
at the root, it's China, the pink elephant in the room. China, our biggest
trading partner and also an authoritarian government (US is probably kicking
itself allowing such a horrible actor to be so powerful), is propping up this
vassel state and prevent any progress made in the peninsula. If China wasn't
propping them up, North Korean government would have already fell long time
ago.

So what happens now? Do we just let China keep protecting its puppet until the
puppet has shipped a nuclear bomb to a port in Los Angeles? I hope not. I hope
the world takes action before then.

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Ting-wei
That is it. China has full control over its huge border to NK. No way for them
to import missile parts unless China is OK with that. _Everything_ of value
that NK has and that its elite enjoys is imported from China: Cars, buses,
flat-screen TVs, mobile phones...

Plus, China could cut or reduce the oil/gas supply any day to zero.... if they
wanted.

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keganunderwood
I agree. DPRK should keep its nuclear weapons. I am more concerned about nukes
in the Indian peninsula when it comes to world security. How good is Pakistan
at keeping its nuclear arsenal safe? How good is India? Can we trust them to
be competent?

What we should focus on is strengthening the democracy and the economy of ROK
so when DPRK fails, ROK can be independent and strong like Germany was in the
nineties in its unification. We are nowhere close.

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emilsedgh
Many people are blaming China for the whole NK situation for their "support"
and asking for a regime change.

What do you propose that China can do after the regime change?

Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya and great examples that you cannot just throw away
a dictatorship. What follows is practically a game of thrones of powers in the
region which is a lose-lose situation for everyone, specially people of the
"free'd" country and the neighbors.

~~~
DashRattlesnake
> Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya

I think it's wrong to compare North Korea to those countries. For one, the
post-regime change problems in those countries have been caused by Islamic
insurgencies, which is not something I'd expect to happen in NK.

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fastball
What, because East Asians are incapable of armed insurgency?

Are you forgetting the Viet Cong so quickly?

~~~
DashRattlesnake
They certainly are, but I think it's foolish to think that a regime change
would play out the same in NK as it did in countries with very different
cultures. I'm skeptical that NK's ideology would be able to sustain an
insurgency after too much contact with the outside.

Also, the Viet Cong were supported by a state, North Vietnam. They also
weren't able to defeat South Vietnam; that took a withdrawal of US support and
the actions of the regular North Vietnamese Army.

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branchless
First thing on the BBC article:

> No effort was made by the Japanese to shoot down the missile, which was
> launched early in the morning local time, triggering safety warnings.

Isn't that odd? Why mention this up front? Why _not_ shoot this down given the
warnings to the public indicated it was serious and a threat to life?

What tech do Japan use to shoot these down? Is it the same as the Yanks? What
happens the moment they try to shoot one down and it sails right by?

~~~
ranger207
Most ballistic missile defense (BMD) currently deployed is designed for a
shootdown in the terminal phase, ie after the missile has reentered the
atmosphere. Destroying a missile in the boost phase, before it leaves the
atmosphere, is the best bet, but that requires advanced intelligence of when
and where a launch will happen. If I recall correctly, there's currently no
good midcourse BMD for when the missile is out of the atmosphere. Aegis has
some midcourse capability, but it's for lower and shorter range missiles, I
think. That just leaves terminal defense, like THAAD and the Aegis system, and
terminal defense is the hardest phase. So there's no real good option to shoot
it down, especially if it turns out your interceptor has a low probability of
kill (pk). If a missile was actually coming down into Japan, you can be sure
that there will be several interceptors on their way.

As for tech, Japan mostly uses the same tech as the US, including THAAD, which
is a ground-based radar and launcher, the Aegis system with the Standard
Missile-3 (SM-3) which is a ship-based radar and launcher, and finally the
Patriot system of ground-based radar and launcher. However, the Patriot's
PAC-2 and -3 missiles are designed for missiles with a shorter range than
ICBMs. All of them have data-sharing, so you can use an Aegis radar to track a
missile for a THAAD battery to launch.

If you try to shoot a North Korean missile and miss, then either morale goes
out the window if it was an NK test, or you have to fall back on the next line
of defense (Aegis -> THAAD -> Patriot) and hope that it hits. The further the
ICBM goes though, the lower pk you have since it's going faster and
potentially has better maneuverability.

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PhasmaFelis
What does the Japanese Self-Defense Force's charter allow in cases like this?
Are they allowed to launch attacks on foreign soil in response to immediate
threats, or do they need to appeal to the US/allies to do it for them?

(Not that there's much they could usefully do to NK, AFAIK, but I'm curious
about the principle.)

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titanix2
Not in the current form of the constitution, but this kind of 'trial' will
sure be used by the prime minister to push his article 9 reform.

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madads
Is there any way an amateur can verify claims of a missile being fired? Does
it appear on radar at all? Thinking one of the flight tracking sites.

In today's world I'm skeptical to say the least.

~~~
PhasmaFelis
Certainly NK has every reason to lie, but I can't imagine why Japan would.
Open war with NK would be very dangerous for them.

~~~
ekianjo
Not saying they are lying but Abe has been continously playing with the fear
of NK to push his military agenda (the change of constitution and surveillance
laws).

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kabdib
I'm less worried about NK missiles than I am about a boat with an NK nuke on
board, detonated in a harbor. A "smugglers war".

I'm assuming the US Coast Guard is all over this kind of threat, but I don't
know how hard it is to detect a bomb hidden aboard in some cranny, shielded by
multiple layers of inches-thick steel.

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boomboomsubban
>I'm less worried about NK missiles than I am about a boat with an NK nuke on
board, detonated in a harbor

How does North Korea benefit from an attack like that? The regime isn't
suicidal, every move they make is to strengthen their own position.

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pcurve
That's assuming it can be traced to NK after detonation.

~~~
boomboomsubban
What is the benefit in that situation? They know any attack will make the US
more hostile, whether they're involved or not.

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TrainedMonkey
This is terrifying in light of watching simulated WW3 this morning this
morning:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbB0srzLuuo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbB0srzLuuo)

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foobarian
I wonder if China could just annex NK a la Russia and Crimea, but in this case
bring them into the modern age. The world would probably breathe a sigh of
relief.

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tfcata
Kim in the North: winter's coming!

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Fej
I'm more worried about Trump escalating than Kim.

