
Ask HN: Predict the future - jfoster
I think it would interesting to hear about what very high likelihood, but still surprising, future events are. Things that you could reason are near-certain, but you mightn&#x27;t have expected prior to hearing the reasoning.
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Mz
Health insurance as we know it shall become a thing of the past. It will be
largely replaced with Direct Primary Care, lower cost wellness services (like
vitamin shops, massage therapists and fitness services) and the spreading of
good info online. People will learn to Google their symptoms at the early
stage and do something to change the course of events rather than waiting
until they need medical intervention. Health insurance will persist as mostly
covering major calamities -- which is as it should be.

People will start solving large scale problems with highly informed grass
roots movements spread largely by internet instead of looking to the
government and mega wealthy to fix everything.

Gig work shall be our era's version of The 40 Hour Work Week. It shall put
power into the hands of the little guy to live where they want and work as
much or as little as they want, giving them lifestyle perks previously only
available to the jet set and comfortably well off retirees.

As men and women learn to work alongside each other, birth rates will go down
because having a baby will no longer be a woman's primary means to secure a
comfortable life for herself.

Men will eventually get a clue and figure out that "male privilege" comes with
a serious cost, not just benefits. This will be a tipping point in so-called
women's rights as people begin focusing on human rights for all people,
including men who currently have money but also die younger than women, die in
battle routinely, are frequently estranged from their kids due to the demands
of their career, etc.

I am pretty sure I had another one I wanted to list, but it escapes me.

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ericzawo
I'm 100% convinced self-driving vehicles will be on the road by the end of
this decade. I suspect they'll be limited to a specific region (say,
California?) at first, or they may even only be limited to service-based
vehicles, like semi-trailer trucks.

~~~
jfoster
Seems quite likely! 2018 seems to be the year to watch; there are multiple
companies (Tesla, Google, NuTonomy) with big 2018 plans. Even some of the more
traditional car manufacturers (Audi, Volkswagen, GM) have had plans to release
something this side of 2020.

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jdmoreira
I just want to suggest a book that I think is relevant to the topic!

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction - Philip E. Tetlock, Dan
Gardner

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personlurking
Politically correct culture will be the only thing Generation Z, and all those
that come after it, know.

On the positive side, something I'd like to see is a movement where remote
workers make the choice to leave the city, in search of healthier, less hectic
day-to-day living. That is, to purposefully congregate in the same areas so as
to create communities across the globe. As things stand, FB is analagous to
the city, whereas the countryside is some FB alternative, but no one tries the
latter cause all their friends are in the former.

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Chos89
Veganism becoming mainstream, shunning people who are not vegan

~~~
jfoster
How do you reach that conclusion, though? Escalating price of livestock?
Shortage of livestock due to climate change? Something else?

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Chos89
Because feeding meat to 9 billion is unsustainable and the only reason we are
able to do it now is because of the huge subsidies. It has terrible
environmental effects and it's morally wrong since the only reason people
still eat meat is the taste and tradition. I expect a huge paradigm shift
here. For more information you could watch documentaries like Cowspiracy and
Earthlings.

Edit - Obligatory VSK:
[http://vegansidekick.tumblr.com/image/151486277095](http://vegansidekick.tumblr.com/image/151486277095)

~~~
inimino
But people have been saying this (and even making these documentaries) since
the 1970s. Has something changed?

~~~
Chos89
Internet and the flood of information. Vegan population soon reaching a
critical mass(every friend circle has a vegan). And then when people have
someone next to them who is vegan for x+ years and healthy they will think
it's a maintainable lifestyle. Also, anecdotal evidence, just a year ago a
vegan post on a forum (i.e. Reddit) would get downvoted into oblivion and
posts like 'bacon tho' upvoted, when today, more often than not, it's the
opposite

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LarryMade2
Self Driving cars - despite resistance will keep surging in popularity - and
self-driving trucks will put yet another blue-collar sector into decline.
Catering to the automated travel market will become a new thing.

Drones - expect more eyes in the sky, law enforcement, news, emergency
services, etc.

Augmented Reality - totally see this happening - and more
[https://vimeo.com/166807261](https://vimeo.com/166807261) . Ever read the
Dream Park series? (Larry Niven/Steven Barnes) Gonna be the future of
gaming/sports.

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NumberCruncher
And I thought that Southpark is joking about the PC vegan self driving
epidemic. I was wrong.

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fuqted
I think that we can basically use more of our bodies than is currently
thought. Everything we feel has a biological correlate. Try making yourself
feel good. After you get a workout high or some such, try expanding the
feeling. You'll notice it's in your gut / abdomen area. This is where a your
adrenals, a majority of your serotonin and a good percentage of your dopamine
is located. If you can do this with some success, try checking in a mirror and
you'll notice that doing this dilates your pupils.

With a few days of practice this kind of thing can get pretty intense. With
years of constant use I believe that we can get very dexterous in how we make
ourselves feel. I'm curious how this kind of thing can eliminate our thinking
with our emotions. This is a major leap from how most of us live our lives,
but I don't think it stops there.

>The eagle eye is among the strongest in the animal kingdom, with an eyesight
estimated at 4 to 8 times stronger than that of the average human. An eagle is
said to be able to spot a rabbit 3.2 km away

What do you think the vision of an eagle would be like if it lives its life in
a 10x14 room? I'm very curious, but it's evident that it would be terrible
compared to where it's at now. Conversely, what do you think a human's vision
would be like if he lived a good percentage of his life in the sky?

If you have bad vision like me, try taking out your contacts and sitting where
a text is just getting blurry. Now for 30 minutes try to clear your vision.
You'll likely notice that at least once, you were able to do it manually (with
other times it being more an accident). I've spoken to this with my
optometrist and he agrees that a person can teach themselves to correct their
vision without the need of corrective lenses.

When we are babies we have much more neurons and synapses than we have as an
adult. It's believed that we essentially lose what we don't need. More to the
point, we use what we don't use. I believe we may be able to regain these
synapses with practice. Over the years, we've only been using as much of our
bodies as needed to survive. I think it's evident that we can use more.

I'm curious for some input on this.

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meric
World War 3 and nuclear bomb detonated in civilian area, hyperinflation of US
dollar, collapse of social security system, financial destruction of 401Ks
through a collapsing financial system, death of 95% of people on this board,
all within the next 100 years.

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Mz
The future is unwritten and predictions about it are consistently wrong.
Making predictions can actually change the course of events.

~~~
jfoster
I'm asking about the things that can be reasoned. For instance, something I
realised a few months ago was that there is no good short term outcome from
the US election. If Trump wins, there will be a bit of panic and I suspect
markets will get hit. If Clinton wins, Trump will probably cause instability
by starting lawsuits, claiming it was rigged, and stirring up his supporters;
it could get very nasty.

I accept that publicising a prediction could change the course of things.
That's okay.

~~~
inimino
That's not what I would call solid reasoning, just guessing at some possible
outcomes. You could just as easily argue positive short term outcomes for
either scenario.

