
Apple to slice iPhone production 10% due to sluggish sales - jseliger
http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Apple-to-slice-iPhone-production-10
======
jblow
Usually I have upgraded, but I currently have no intention of buying an iPhone
7 or later, unless they fix something!

For me it's a double whammy. I don't like the lack of headphone jack, and
whereas I feel like I could manage grumpily ... for me it kills the excitement
of buying the new device, and I think that is important. (My standard
listening headphones are Etymotic ER-4Ps; there is no way I am going to
downgrade to AirPods).

But the bigger part of the whammy is iOS. iOS is completely terrible at this
point. I just can't consistently control the phone. A large percentage of taps
or swipes do things I did not intend (how many I'm not sure -- 20%? 33%?) It's
just completely crazy. They need to get rid of 3D touch, get rid of double-tap
one-hand accessibility mode whatever it's called, get rid of weird swipes from
the edge, fix the horrible inconsistencies in the way autocorrect works (or,
_please_ , offer a system that just underlines words-thought-to-be-wrong
without changing them, and let me tap on them to change them, _or_ use the
current autocorrect system but let me tap on a word to un-"correct" it, the
fact that the current system just changes what I typed and gives me no
recourse to fix it apart from laborious deletions and re-typings, which I
often have to do 2 or 3 times, is just haughty and offensive)... and in the
meantime, might as well redesign the rest of the UI. Because right now the
phone is not a joy to use, it's a constant exercise in frustration. I haven't
felt _good_ about using iOS since sometime back around iOS5 or 6.

So it's no mystery to me why sales might be slowing ... I don't want a new one
if it's going to continue the downward trend.

~~~
saurik
> They need to get rid of 3D touch, get rid of double-tap one-hand
> accessibility mode whatever it's called, get rid of weird swipes from the
> edge, fix the horrible inconsistencies in the way autocorrect works...

This is the same bullshit Apple has been doing with Mac OS X. I'm typing away
in the terminal, doing something extremely productive, and suddenly my UI
locks up for a second and I realize "shit, I must have accidentally timed a
modifier key wrong and now I'm entering some crazy Mac mode" and then all of
my windows fly around and I have to figure out how to get back to my terminal.
I honestly don't understand why anyone wants any of these features, and if I
_did_ want them I'd want them to be _super fast_ without the crazy slow
animations, as every second I'm staring at them is a second I'm _not working_
:/.

The one thing I can say is: just like on the Mac, you can turn most of this
shit off on iOS. Essentially, they pretend that the only reason people would
ever want to have an advanced option on iOS is because they are disabled, and
so they hide everything under "Accessibility". You can turn off "3D Touch" and
"Reachability" there. I'm not sure which edge swipes you hate, but if it is
the one from the bottom, "Control Center" can be turned off (it is a top-level
settings panel, turn off both "Access on Lock Screen" and "Access Within
Apps"). You can also configure a lot about auto-correction under
General/Keyboard.

~~~
doomlaser
It's one of the critical flaws of Apple's modern design philosophy: Having a
right mouse button would be too complicated, but hiding layers of complicated
functionality through opaque multi-finger gestures, taps, and keyboard
modifiers is A-OK.

And it's absolutely true that when Apple adds a new feature, it must have an
accompanying slow animation tween to sell it. Frustrating.

~~~
Angostura
Since Apple has completely supported right mouse for 20 or so years now, I
just think you're confused

~~~
doomlaser
They support secondary click, but they have never shipped a first party mouse
with a standard right button, favoring sleight of hand input schemes to
trigger a right-click — schemes that are not immediately discoverable.

~~~
jdietrich
Apple seem to have a terrible blind spot for mice. Ive-era keyboards have been
consistently excellent, but the mice have been consistently awful. Remember
the horrendous hockey-puck mouse that shipped with the iMac?

~~~
grzm
The USB mouse ("hockey-puck") was particularly bad, as it wasn't easy to
orient. The Might Mouse trackball was pretty bad, too. The others didn't have
major deficiencies in my opinion. What in particular do you find fault with
the others?

~~~
jdietrich
The Pro Mouse had one button when five were becoming standard. The Mighty
Mouse would only right-click if you lifted your index finger off the mouse
entirely. The multitouch on the Magic Mouse is woeful in terms of
discoverability and frustratingly erratic. Ergonomics have been consistently
poor, owing to Apple's refusal to make a mouse that actually fits the human
hand. None of their mice are comfortable in palm grip, because they're
needlessly low and flat. The rounded edges and gloss plastic of the Mighty
Mouse and Pro mouse are difficult to control in fingertip or claw grip.

By comparison, Microsoft achieved near-perfection in mouse design with the
venerable Wheel Mouse Optical 1.1a. After more than a decade, that mouse is
still perfectly usable for competitive gaming. Contemporary high-end mice from
companies like Steelseries and Zowie imitate the shape of the WMO very
closely, because it's exceedingly comfortable for a wide range of grip styles
and hand sizes.

~~~
grzm
_The Pro Mouse had one button when five were becoming standard._

Apple has always produced mice that have at most one physical button, while
providing in the OS to support third-party mice that have more. This isn't
something that started with Ive. There are plenty of people who think Apple
should produce mice that have more than one button throughout its history.

Having used all of these mice extensively, primarily in desktop publishing and
programming environments, I haven't found any of the issues you mention a
problem. That's not to say others haven't. I enjoyed using the Magic Mouse in
particular. I never had any ergonomic issues with any of them, other than the
Apple USB mouse.

You mention gaming, and I can see how none of Apple's mice would be good for
this. And it's great that there are third-party companies producing great
mice, and have been for a long time. (Speaking of Microsoft, I've heard great
things about their keyboards as well.) Given my (admittedly personal)
experience with Apple's mice, I find the phrasing "consistently awful" to be
hyperbole and unwarranted. That's not to say they're the best. There's a wide
range between "near-perfection" and "consistently awful".

~~~
jdietrich
Apple are supposed to be the paragon of industrial design, but their mice tend
to fall prey to style over substance. Their mice designs look lovely, but
there's no ergonomic rationale behind their shape. If you think that the Magic
Mouse is satisfactory, I'd suggest trying some genuinely high quality third-
party mice - the Logitech Marathon or MX Master, or anything by Mionix or
Zowie. I think you'll be shocked at the difference.

Gaming is the extreme case for mouse use, but it's not an edge case. A good
gaming mouse is simply a good mouse - not a puck that you push around the
desk, but an extension of your hand with a sensor underneath. eSports gamers
simply demand an excellent sensor and high-quality switches in an ergonomic
package.

[https://mionix.net/mice](https://mionix.net/mice)
[http://zowie.benq.com/en/product/mouse.html](http://zowie.benq.com/en/product/mouse.html)

------
jonknee
This is an annual story, not super interesting. Nikkei itself actually posted
something similar at this time last year:

[http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Trends/Parts-makers-brace-
fo...](http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Trends/Parts-makers-brace-for-iPhone-
production-cut)

> Apple is expected to reduce output of its latest iPhone models by around 30%
> in the January-March quarter compared with its original plans, according to
> several parts suppliers. The measure will deal a blow to Japanese and South
> Korean parts companies.

So maybe a 10% cut is actually bullish?

~~~
snowwrestler
Supply chain stories about Apple get posted all the time, and there is no
discernible relationship between what they say and the actual sales volumes
the Apple reports in the next 10-Q.

~~~
erdevs
Effects don't necessarily show up in the following quarter. Moreover, it's an
overstatement to say there is _no_ relationship. iPhone sales growth slowed
dramatically following previous periods where supply chain order cuts were
reported (eg in Jan'13 it was reported that Apple cut orders for iPhone 5
screens and subsequently actual growth did indeed slow dramatically). There
seems to be a clear relationship between some such reports and the subsequent
sales growth trend.

~~~
argonaut
No, it's not an overstatement. If half the time the prediction turns out not
to be true, then there is no relationship - you may as well flip a coin.

~~~
erdevs
The parent claim was that there is no relationship, but they haven't backed
that claim up. Unless someone does, it's an overstatement, especially in light
of evidence that these reports (from well-reputed financial news institutions,
not random internet rumors) do regularly turn out to be indicative of future
performance (and no presently provided evidence to the contrary).

This new supply chain story also appears to be indicative of a true underlying
trend in actuals as well, just as the previously cited one was. From the USA
Today article on this same news: "Apple has hinted throughout the year sales
of its iPhone would decline. Fiscal year revenue for 2016 dropped for the
first time in fifteen years. _Meanwhile, fourth quarter iPhone shipments were
down 5% from the same time last year._ "

So, that's likey 2 for 2...

If you have a more rigorous analysis to back up the claim that there is _no_
relationship historically between well-sourced reports by well-reputed and
widely read financial news operations about iPhone supply chain dynamics to
subsequent sales trends, then please provide it. If instead it was just an
assertion from air, then it is an overstatement. One could reasonably say that
the relationship is unclear. Or that it's hard to say how these reports relate
to subsequent actuals. Or even that there are instances (if you can provide
them) where these sorts of reports turn out to belie the trend in actuals. But
saying flat out that there is _no_ relationship meets the exact definition of
_overstatement_ unless it's backed-up.

------
pwinnski
That Apple might expect to sell fewer phones in the post-holiday quarter than
the holiday quarter, that I buy. That sales are more sluggish than expected, I
don't. At least not based on unsourced claims.

I've seen reports like this so often that I don't think I'd know what to do if
one didn't appear. And so far, they mostly happen on years that are later
demonstrated to include record sales of the product we're told is selling
poorly.

I've begun to suspect that analysts literally make these up trying to provoke
a response from Apple, since Apple normally only shares numbers during
quarterly earnings, and they don't want to wait that long.

~~~
erdevs
It isn't unsourced. They tell you the source in the article. This is from The
Nikkei newspaper, as in The Nikkei Index. This is Japan's largest financial
newspaper. It is original research performed by seasoned financial
journalists. The Nikkei is actually the largest financial newspaper in the
world, with a subscriber base of over 3M. Nikkei also owns the Financial Times
among other assets. You've provided no reasonable basis whatsoever to doubt
their journalism.

> I've begun to suspect that analysts literally make these up

In an era where patently false "news" pervades society, it does not help to
blithely claim that real, reputable journalism is simply "made up". Also, this
wasn't even an analyst firm, it is investigative journalism based on several
primary sources with direct knowledge of the matters at hand.

Also, a quick Google search will provide more detail:
[http://www.usatoday.com/story/96001250/](http://www.usatoday.com/story/96001250/)
... Note how this journalist mentions that Apple has been hinting about this
on recent quarterly calls.

~~~
pg314
This is not the first time reputable organisations have wrongly inferred
sluggish iPhone sales numbers. In Apple's 2013 Q1, Tim Cook, Apple's CEO,
warned against reading too much into any rumors about order cuts gleaned from
supply chain data after an incorrect story in the Wall Street Journal [1].
I've seen more of these stories that later proved wrong than that were
correct.

[1] [http://www.imore.com/tim-cook-addresses-rumors-about-
apple-c...](http://www.imore.com/tim-cook-addresses-rumors-about-apple-
cutting-orders-tells-wall-street-smarten-hell)

~~~
erdevs
It's well and good to point out that analysis based on supply chain sources
may draw inaccurate conclusions and definitely to demonstrate that such
analysis has been wrong in the past (it certainly has, for Apple and others).
I do not claim to know whether this analysis will bear out in reality or not.

I'm merely pointing out that it is nonsensical to blithely dismiss it or claim
it may simply be "made up" when it is at least based on primary sources and
real journalism.

With respect to your specific example, I'd say the WSJ article which the
article you linked is referring to appears to have actually borne out with the
benefit of hindsight. Q1'13 production supply orders affect supply in
subsequent quarters, and a reduction in orders means there is less expected
growth. The article you linked expresses skepticism that this is the case, but
it appears that it was. iPhone sales growth YoY slowed dramatically subsequent
to Q1'13... For example Q1'14 saw ~10% sales growth over Q1'13 versus ~30% YoY
growth the year prior and ~100% the year preceding that. To the extent the
article indicates that demand and production are falling off from previous
growth rates, it appears to have been accurate.

The above doesn't mean that this new report will be proven out. Nor even
necessarily that the previous reporting you cited was actually correct. But it
doesn't appear to be a clear whiff either.

~~~
pg314
You are being very charitable to the WSJ. The WSJ article in question said in
the second paragraph [1]: _Apple 's orders for iPhone 5 screens for the first
quarter, for example, have dropped to roughly half of what the company had
planned to order, the people said_.

In the three first months of 2014 Apple sold 37.4 million iPhones, compared to
35.1 million in the three first months of 2013 [2]. Unless you believe that
they internally projected to sell anywhere near 75 million phones (more than
the 47.8 million iPhones sold in the last three months of 2013, traditionally
their strongest quarter by far), that rumor reported by the WSJ was flat out
wrong.

[1]
[http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014241278873242351045782410...](http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887324235104578241051730364998)

[2] [http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/04/23Apple-Reports-
Seco...](http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/04/23Apple-Reports-Second-
Quarter-Results.html)

~~~
erdevs
I hear what you're saying, but I am not sure you're interpreting the supply
chain order implications correctly. You are assuming a 1 to 1 ratio of
expected vs actual component supply order volumes and subsequent net sales.
That is not at all how it typically works, and while I agree the WSJ could
have and should have been more clear on this: the point of the article wasn't
that the iPhone would _sell_ __half __as much as Apple had forecast. I can see
why you and other reasonable people would draw this conclusion from the
article (hence my criticism that they could and should have been more clear),
but it isn 't implied.

Let's say that for Q4'12 Apple ordered 41M screens (vs say 30M in Q4'11),
tracking toward a roughly ~35% YoY growth rate at the time. And, as per usual
practice, so as to ensure their component partners in the supply chain are
adequately tooled and ramped up for the future, they set expectations for
Q1'13 and beyond, but at slightly lower growth levels than Q4'12's order
because they are savvy and realize this is a maturing market where growth
naturally slows over time. Without obligating themselves to actually order
these future quantities in Q1'13 and beyond, they place contingent forecast
orders representing say a ~28% YoY growth rate estimate for Q1'13 and beyond.
Say that means they communicate a forecast order of 44M screens for Q1'13.

Now, as Q4'12 rolls along and Q1'13 component orders must be finalized and
committed, Apple sees actual sales growth might be on pace for ~18% YoY. It
looks like they will sell ~35M iPhones in Q1'13 vs the ~41M screens they have
on hand from Q4'12's order, so they'll be left with a 6M screen inventory
overhang from Q4'12's order. (I'm oversimplifying and assuming single quarter
component turnaround time here for sake of illustration). They see that growth
is tapering off going forward too (tracking down over time toward the actual
~10% YoY growth you cited by Q1'14). Q4'12's sales landed slightly slower than
anticipated when they placed their order for it in Q3'12 as well, in line with
this slower growth trend, and so they also have an overhang of, say, 4M
screens from Q3'12's order for a total inventory overhang of 8M+4M = 12M
screens by the end of Q4'12\. They deduct this overhang from their projected
Q1'13 screen order, as well as lowering their estimate from needing 44M
screens in Q1'13 to needing, say, 36M screens total for Q2'13 As such, for
Q1'13 they order 36M needed screens minus 12M screens in overhung inventory,
or 24M new screens. So, Q1'13's order goes from a projected 44M screens to
24M.

In this scenario, a screen component supplier might say Apple "cut their Q1'13
order in half". But Apple's expected sales for Q1'13 and beyond wouldn't have
been off by 50%, but more like less than 20% (41M vs 35M). Also bear in mind
that Apple's internal forecast may not have even been off by this much.
Companies sometimes slightly overprovision in periods of uncertainty if they
know they can sell through the overhung supply later and simply dial back
subsequent supply orders while the overhang is cleared through. This may be
exactly what Apple did at this time around the iPhone 5's sales cycle, so
there internal forecast may have been off by only 10%... Or not at all. Yet,
it would still be true from a component supplier's perspective that their
order for Q1'13 was cut roughly in half.

This is all grossly oversimplified and entirely hypothetical (though based
very roughly on the volume figured you cited). Yet it illustrates the point
that there certainly needn't be a 1:1 correlation between supply order changes
and actual sellthrough vs forecast. This is only more true in the real world
where myriad complexities and order terms can dramatically affect supply chain
orders without implying a horrible misforecast by the buyer or any dramatic or
unexpected sales trend.

This would make what Tim Cook told investors absolutely correct-- don't
overextrapolate from (potentially faulty) supply chain sources. But it would
also make the WSJ article perfectly accurate... And nowhere did the article
state that Apple's estimates were 50% off nor that investors did or should
expect a decrease in demand or even a drastic decrease in growth. So, they
were both (potentially) right. Point being, it is faulty to assume a simple
1:1 correlation between supply chain order changes and resultant actual sales
vs forecasts, as your post does.

~~~
pg314
You are right that you can construct a scenario where e.g. screen components
could have been cut by half. Thanks for typing it out. The WSJ article,
though, attributes the cuts in component orders to weaker iPhone demand:
'because of weaker-than-expected demand'. That's my beef with their reporting.
If they had just stated 'one of Apple's suppliers has got its order reduced by
half', I would have no problem with the article. Trying to tie it to iPhone
demand is just conjecture.

Just like you said in your conclusion: don't overextrapolate from (potentially
faulty) supply chain sources. Which seems to be exactly what the Nikkei
article is doing again. There is very little info in it: 'Apple will trim
production of its iPhone family around 10% on the year in the first quarter of
2017, according to calculations by The Nikkei based on data from suppliers'.
So, they have some information from suppliers (all of them?), and they have
some model (how accurate is that model?) that points to an iPhone production
cut. To me that seems like overextrapolation again... And I agree with you
that this is not 'fake news', but it is also not good reporting either.

~~~
erdevs
Thanks for the reply and I agree with you (and Tim Cook!) on not
overextrapolating from such stories. A couple points:

> The WSJ article, though, attributes the cuts in component orders to weaker
> iPhone demand: 'because of weaker-than-expected demand

In the hypothetical scenario I outlined, the reduction in component orders is
literally due to "weaker-than-expected demand". In that scenario, they
forecast needing, say, 41M screens but really only ended up selling 35M
phones. It's off by less than 20% of forecost demand (and it still represents
significant growth!), but it's still weaker than expected and that relatively
small miss on expectations could easily result in a component order reduction
of 50% or more due to inventory overhang and myriad other potential supply
chain factors.

So, it'd be wrong to conclude that Apple's forecast was literally 50% off from
this story... But that's not what they said and it is an incorrect assumption
to presume a 1:1 relationship between component supply order cuts and
subsequent sales actuals.

------
auggierose
I switched back from Android to iOS because the only decent Android phone
(Pixel) is in the same price range as an iPhone. I got a jet black iPhone 7
and I love it, it just feels great in my hand. The only thing I am a little
disappointed about is the notifications system, which is still sub par
compared to Android (like, 2 touches instead of 1 to clear a notification, and
I cannot properly configure Gmail to show only certain messages as
notifications; why Apple Mail can pull Gmail only every 15 minutes is beyond
me ...) So I feel iPhone 7 will be doing well enough.

~~~
dan1234
> why Apple Mail can pull Gmail only every 15 minutes is beyond me ...

It used to work, but Google removed Activesync support for free users a while
back. you need to use the Gmail app or upgrade to a paid Google Apps plan if
you want push support.

~~~
profmonocle
To be fair, Gmail _does_ support the IMAP IDLE extension, which is the
standard way of doing push email over IMAP. Mac mail supports it, and it
works. (I actually get email notifications on my laptop before my Android
phone.)

iOS only supports email push with iCloud or with a Microsoft Exchange server.
IMO, this is really on Apple for not supporting the IDLE extension on iOS,
rather than Google for not supporting a proprietary protocol for their free
users.

~~~
ctrl_freak
> To be fair, Gmail does support the IMAP IDLE extension, which is the
> standard way of doing push email over IMAP.

IDLE would become a major battery hog on the iPhone, which is why it was never
implemented. I don't believe Android supports it natively either.

~~~
izacus
Why? It works the exact same way as Apple and Google push notification
implementations do.

~~~
fuayenaha
It requires you to have an active connection to the server all the time.

~~~
swiley
That's just an entry in a table maintained by the kernel. "Active connection"
doesn't nescisarily mean data is sent over it. Also, the other poster is
right, this is exactly how the other push notifications work.

~~~
fuayenaha
Of course, but the point is that you have only one connection open (the one to
Apple or GCM), not one for each app, one for each imap account, etc. If you
let anybody keep a connection alive continuosly you end up with a mess.

------
brightball
Apple's losing its mojo in a slow steady drip and there's going to be more of
this if they don't get it together soon.

Apple used to be synonymous with premium equipment an a "It Just Works"
experience. It made it really, really easy to just get the Apple version of
anything knowing it was going to be good.

My parents need equipment, I get them an iMac, an Airport Extreme, iPhone,
iPad, etc...knowing it's all just going to work.

And then somebody in the business unit started getting involved. Airport
extreme is basically dead. They started trimming their product line so that
they no longer have an option in every category like 17" laptops. They remove
features that people don't want removed like the headphone jack and leave you
with no other option aside from buying attachments or more expensive battery
powered headphones. They started building in batteries in slices on the
laptops they do sell, welding parts to boards so you can't open it up and
change things out without paying somebody at an Apple store.

They started making design decisions that are almost purposely irritating like
the new Magic Mouse. Look, it's got a rechargeable battery built right in!
_battery dies_ flip it upside down to plug in the charger and just wait until
you can use your computer again. God forbid you put the charger on the front
so people could use it as a wired mouse if they wanted/needed.

Let's not forget using $30 USB cords to charge your phone/mouse.

The combination of all these little decisions is what is finally driving me
away after being nothing short of a fanboy for about 10 years. I'm just tired
of having a company that I tend to disagree with lately trying to make
decisions for me so I'm starting the slow exit from Mac life.

Laptop first ( _waves at Dell_ ). Then a new router ( _waves at Asus probably_
). Then a new phone ( _waves at Samsung /Google_).

And then, because the geeks in your friends lives tend to get asked for
recommendations on what they should get for themselves...that stuff is
probably going to spill over. I don't seem to be the only person feeling this
way lately, so I hope whoever started making bottom line decisions at Apple is
happy with the long term side effect.

~~~
pdimitar
I tried quite a few routers and if you are on a budget (or simply aren't
fussed on giving $200+ for a router which is entirely fair) I found that the
Asus RT-N18U is a fantastic device for the money. I attached my printer and
external HDD to it and had almost no problems. The UI is better than most
other vendors (Eero and Ubiquiti are still kings though) and on top of that
they have a very decent mobile app as well.

As for Apple, I actually wanted to start investing myself in their ecosystem
but as you very eloquently put it -- it seems the businessmen took over and
things just go worse and worse with time. :(

~~~
DashRattlesnake
I wouldn't recommend Asus routers. I used to have one, but got rid of it due
to the serious security problems they were having:

[http://arstechnica.com/security/2014/02/dear-asus-router-
use...](http://arstechnica.com/security/2014/02/dear-asus-router-user-youve-
been-pwned-thanks-to-easily-exploited-flaw/)

[http://thehackernews.com/2016/02/asus-router-security-
hack.h...](http://thehackernews.com/2016/02/asus-router-security-hack.html)
(some random article I found, giving an overview of some of the other
problems)

Now I use a Mikrotik. The only downside is the UI is quite powerful and allows
you to hang yourself if you're not careful. It's definitely not for non-
engineers. However, it does get regular updates since it's targeted at a more
professional market.

~~~
pdimitar
I've read about that too a while ago, thank you. I believe those should have
been fixed by now but being objective, we really can't know for sure, so I am
with you here.

Please note that I said "if you're on a budget or you're not fussed giving
$200+ on a router" however. I am aware that there are compromises to be made
when one doesn't buy professional equipment. Not disagreeing with you. Only
adding nuance.

FWIW I won't be looking for other middle-ground solutions after I figure it's
time to upgrade again (which is gonna be in the next 1-2 years maximum). I'll
just go full in with the 5-pack of Ubiquiti and hope for the best.

Do you know of any exploits in the Ubiquiti firmware?

------
DoodleBuggy
I personally think the iPhone 7 is just a bad phone (quite literally, the
phone audio itself cuts out or muffles when you are on voice calls, and
everyone I know with an iPhone 7 reports this problem). Aside from that, the
iPhone 6/7 body was/is always very ugly and uninspired, and the iPhone 7 is no
better but loses a useful feature (headphone jack) while offering no benefit
as a trade-off. I personally have an iPhone 7 Plus but I would not recommend
it to anyone, it's the first Apple product I've bought and had buyers remorse
about. If you want a new phone I would recommend to save money and get a 6S,
or wait two more years for the next major redesign.

Oh, and let's not forget iOS, which has seemingly degraded considerably in
quality to the point of being at the same level of disdain as Windows ME or
Windows Vista was. Maybe it's entirely perception, but the bugginess of iOS
was actually a group conversation topic during Christmas despite having a
largely nontechnical crowd of guests, all of who were complaining about
various difficulties and issues with their iPhones.

I wish I was optimistic about Apple, but instead I am concerned.

------
itg
The numbers coming out of Apple next quarter will be interesting. iPhone 7 has
been underwhelming and reception to the latest MacBooks Pros has been mostly
negative. And if sales are on a downhill trajectory, I wonder what the
response inside of Apple will be.

~~~
cracell
I hope the market punishes them for removing the ports we regularly use from
the MacBook Pro so when I'm ready to buy a new one in a few years they have
brought them back.

In particular the removal of the magsafe power connector is maddening. By far
my favorite feature of Macbooks and they removed it because??

~~~
matwood
No, in a few years everything will be USB-C. The ports are gone for good.

~~~
shams93
Yeah the devices are coming soon. I find it ironic that the new macbook pro
works seemlessly with new google pixel devices, you can just plug in a usb-c
cable between them, no dongles needed. If Apple wanted to be really bold they
would have swapped lightening for usb-c so the new iphone and macbook pro
could be connected with one simple cable.

~~~
matwood
Totally agree. I made a comment on the original MBP thread that Apple dropped
the ball here by not releasing the iPhone 7 also as usb-c. I'll be shocked,
and really wonder WTF, if the next iPhone is not usb-c.

~~~
marcoperaza
They're kind of in a tough spot there, having licensed so many lightning port
accessories and headphones, that many of their customers have since spent so
much money on.

And to their credit, they created the lightning port before USB type-C even
existed.

~~~
snovv_crash
Then why not a dongle? After all, that seems to be the solution for everything
else...

------
more_corn
My buddy has purchased every new iPhone on release day since the first
version. Every new iPhone except the 7. He said "The one I have now is the
last one I'll buy". He's not willing to give up the headphone jack. I expect
there are many more like him so a 10% reduction in production is to be
expected. To be fair the 7 is slick and nice in a lot of ways.

~~~
aeontech
10% or more reduction in the quarter after the holidays is always to be
expected. This is just more of the usual "we need to write about _something_"
journalism. Sigh.

(PS: anecdotally, 3 family members upgraded to 7s/7s+ in the last month. No
complaints about headphone jack, it's really only a huge issue in the internet
echo chamber while ordinary people in their vast majority don't care and just
use whatever buds come with the device).

~~~
erdevs
The article isn't talking about quarter over quarter growth, but year over
year. Quarterly sales will likely decline, as they do most every year in the
period and as is perfectly natural for this market. The story is that _year-
over-year_ growth may be lower than expected and that iPhone 7 component
orders are being trimmed down.

~~~
aeontech
I don't see anything in the article that says it's a 10% cut compared to last
year, but maybe I missed it, can you clarify?

~~~
erdevs
"Apple will trim production of its iPhone family around 10% _on the year_ in
the first quarter of 2017... This comes after the company slashed output in
January-March 2016."

Along with the context that there is absolutely no news here if this is merely
a dip in production from Oct-Dec to Jan-March as holiday sales are always high
and then dip down significantly after January. The year-over-year trend is
what matters.

Further context to back this up, from the USA Today article on this same
story: "Apple has hinted throughout the year sales of its iPhone would
decline. Fiscal year revenue for 2016 dropped for the first time in fifteen
years. Meanwhile, _fourth quarter iPhone shipments were down 5% from the same
time last year._ "

It's a year-over-year trend, which is relatively unexpected, not quarter-over-
quarter which is absolutely expected in this period.

~~~
aeontech
Ah, okay, I didn't know the _on the year_ term.

    
    
      there is absolutely no news here if this is merely a dip in production from Oct-Dec to Jan-March as holiday sales are always high and then dip down significantly after January.
    

Right, which is why I thought this was a non-article written in times of slow
news. Thanks for explaining!

~~~
erdevs
No worries and thanks for the reasonable reply! :-)

------
maurice_moss
Like many of you here, I've also had buyers remorse with the iPhone 7 (Plus).
I see everyone talking about putting the dongle on their headphones and
leaving it there. Maybe my car is old fashioned, but I use my phone to stream
spotify when I drive, which means the dongle stays in the car connected to
AUX. I dont want to spend $10 on an extra dongle because that is fucking
stupid. Not just this - but, like a fan boy, i purchased their new Macbook Pro
with nothing but USB-C ports. The keyboard sucks, the touchbar is worthless to
me (a sysadmin) and the trackpad is overkill. They removed the glowing apple,
which doesnt affect my work but everything that was signature about the laptop
has been stripped out. Do you know how stupid I look plugging my yubikey into
a dongle into a USB-C port? I am a creature of habit so I just assumed that
I'd get over all these changes but they are seriously impacting my use of the
devices. It is not as easy to switch back to my iPhone 6 Plus but it is very
easy for me to use my work macbook that doesnt have the gimmicky piece of crap
they call the touch bar. The only positive on both the iPhone and MacBook is
the battery life. Once they come out with something comparable that truly
lasts as long, I'll switch away from Crapple.

~~~
itchynosedev
If sticking yubikey into dongle to connect to your laptop is such a big deal
for you, for the love of thigs why did you go full usb-c? Why did you get the
touchbar model?

Seems like bad research on your end than poor execution.

As for keyboard, I really do enjoy it more then the sponginess of lterally any
other laptop (including pre2016 mbp)

I do agree on the trackpad, seems overkill. But I didn't use it long enough to
make judgement yet.

------
eva1984
This is so overdue, to a company that has become so safe in mentality and lack
of innovation.

Edit: look at the latest Macbook Pro, how out of touch this company has
become, to put their philosophy/belief(thinner! lighter! no ports!) before
true usability, to the point I feel sad because MBP was my favorite product
from Apple.

------
givinguflac
Eh, I'll wait to hear the numbers. They reduce production every year at
strategic times, I don't think it means doom.

------
gdulli
I haven't bought a new phone since they stopped the practice of subsidizing a
new phone purchase every 2 years. I can't understand how they wouldn't expect
that to have killed sales. I had been buying a new phone every 2 years but now
I have no plans to buy one until I absolutely need to.

------
narrator
Are we at the end of an era computing wise or is it just Apple? I wonder if
computing technologies great transformation of our society is coming to an
end. I also thought this in about 1993 and then again in the mid 2000s, so I'm
probably wrong again. Maybe AI will be the new killer app that drives the next
wave of upgrades.

~~~
shmerl
No, there is simply more competition today, and market balances things out.
Also, Apple grew too comfortable and stopped pushing forward. It was only a
matter of time for this to happen.

~~~
danieldk
Also, more in general, all the obvious improvements to the current smartphone
form factor/concept have been made now: capacitive touch screen (iPhone),
retina display (iPhone 4), fingerprint unlock/secure element (iPhone 5s),
always listening Siri + Force Touch (iPhone 6s), plus huge improvements in
CPU/GPU speed with all models. Where force touch was already quite a marginal
improvement.

I have an iPhone 5S and my _primary_ motivation to upgrade would be to get a
64GB model. I just don't see any revolutionary changes in newer iterations
(neither in Android).

The same applies to the iPad. My wife has an iPad Air, but I have no clue
telling how many generations it is behind, without checking Wikipedia. It
works fine and there is no real reason to upgrade in newer iterations (except
perhaps in specific niches).

~~~
TheSpiceIsLife
My thoughts exactly. Push forward in to where? And I think this is great for
users. In the same way that my Core 2 Duo ThinkPad running Windows 7 (with
SSD) does everything I need, I don't want to have to upgrade my phone every 12
months due to planned obsolescence.

I think one of the glaring areas for improvement is battery life. Won't
someone give us the option of a 10+mm thick phone with a huge battery in it.
Please.

~~~
pdimitar
Apple has a real opportunity to modernize iOS a lot and kick Google in the
nuts since they are very content sitting on their ass doing practically
nothing for Android.

\- Dark theme. Customization = good. Sends a good message.

\- More separate volume controls. For me one volume level for notifications
and phone ringer is absurd in 2016.

\- LCD displays, really? The iPhone 7/Plus and the iPad Pro 9.7" are first of
Apple's devices with an almost 100% correct color reproduction on the
professional scales. About time for [s]AMOLED displays.

\- More privacy settings and abilities to break the sandbox if the user so
desires. If I want 3 apps to have access to the same vault of files, then I
should be able to!

Since I sold my 6S Plus back in July I forgot the rest of my complaints but I
remember them being between 10-13 in total.

    
    
        > I think one of the glaring areas for improvement is battery life.
        > Won't someone give us the option of a 10+mm thick phone with a huge battery in it. Please.
    

That I absolutely agree with. The obsessiveness with thin phones is something
many of us hate with passion. I am a 115kg man at 184cm and pretty strong --
and a bit overweight :D -- and I honestly can't tell the difference between
140 and 200 grams in my hand. I'm sure a 300 or so grams of a phone would be
perfect for many people.

~~~
newscracker
> \- Dark theme. Customization = good. Sends a good message.

I'm not sure if the customization option would come anytime soon, but a dark
theme would very likely come out in 2017 when Apple releases an iPhone with an
OLED display. It most likely wouldn't come if the lineup is all LCD (as it has
been so far). This is all about battery life, which Apple obsesses about a
lot. Assuming there's just text on the screen, with LCD, black text on white
background would be better for battery life, whereas on an OLED screen, having
white text on a black background would be better for battery life.

Edit: While Apple has shipped (LCD) iPhone models with new versions of iOS and
sometimes darker wallpapers, my point above is more about many of the Apple
apps, including Settings, Mail, Reminder, and so on.

~~~
pdimitar
I love it that they are obsessed with battery life. It seems very few OEMs
remember what a _mobile device_ is these days. I like Apple for it very much.

That being said, I would buy the OLED iPhone in a heartbeat but only if it has
bezels and has no curved screen. These fads are making normal human usage of
the phones a huge annoyance and really need to die.

I'm very sad that I am seeing exactly the opposite: many people FINALLY got
their brains warmed up and figured "Hey! Samsung did it, look how well their
S7 Edge sold! Let's do the same!"... that's awful, sigh. They absolutely don't
get it.

------
vikingcaffiene
I've had the 7 for a few months and I am considering returning it. The phone
is overall solid build quality but uninspired/boring. There are flaws that
make this model a definite downgrade from previous models. I buy Apple
products because of the thoughtful little details they pay attention to that
you didn't know you wanted till you noticed it. Its a super high bar to be
sure but its one that is part of their brand and the justification for the
insane markup they charge. I would compare it to buying a bespoke suit or a
quality time piece. You pay this kind of money because you are serious about
having the best and want every little thing just right. The 7 is just kinda
"meh" and thats not how I want to feel when I spend this kind of scratch.

The headphone jack is of course super annoying and I run into so many case
where I wish I had it (for instance when trying to play a song back through
some monitors for my friends). Just such a stupid and unnecessary move.

The deal breaker for me (and can anyone confirm if they are experiencing
this??) is that the lightning connector just refuses to stay plugged in if I
jostle the phone even slightly. Tried different cables, case on and off.
Always the same. Its possible that I have a defective unit I guess.

At this point the only things keeping me are a) I need an iOS device for some
work projects. b) I am concerned that I wont be able to move all my data over
to another platform without massive pain.

~~~
whywhywhywhy
> There are flaws that make this model a definite downgrade from previous
> models

Only if you go back to the 5, in form factor/design it's an upgrade in
absolutely every way over the abysmal 6-series apart from the headphone jack.

Back of the 6 is full of dirty antenna lines, the materials it was made out of
look and feel cheap and slippy, the camera wart is just another component
stuck to the back.

7 has a premium black option again finally that provides much needed
grippyness, camera thought still warty is an equal distance from the edge not
lopsided and actually machined out the case, antenna lines are finally almost
invisible again.

~~~
vikingcaffiene
> Only if you go back to the 5, in form factor/design it's an upgrade in
> absolutely every way over the abysmal 6-series apart from the headphone
> jack.

I'm in agreement with you that the 5 series form factor is way better. I was
in fact referring to the headphone jack and the problems with the thunderbolt
connector as being a downgrade from the previous generation.

> 7 has a premium black option again finally that provides much needed
> grippyness, camera thought still warty is an equal distance from the edge
> not lopsided and actually machined out the case, antenna lines are finally
> almost invisible again

TBH I think that most users (myself included) slap a case on these devices
straight away so all of that stuff is kind of pointless. That attention to
detail should be expected at this price point that said.

The 7 doesn't suck by any stretch. IMHO there are some flaws and design
stupidity that just shouldn't have been allowed to make it out into the world
so I'm considering alternatives. The S7 Edge maybe? Dunno.

------
jseliger
I'm not surprised sales are weak: the regular iPhone 7 seems to offer few
improvements over the 6s or 6, with only the 7+'s camera being a really
notable differentiator.

~~~
djrogers
Better camera, better screen, faster, waterproof, more ram, Taptic Engine,
nicer finish options, more durable home button, and on and on. It's a better
phone in almost every measurable way.

~~~
danieldk
And still, for many daily users the differences are not going to be
spectacular. At least not 'drop 700 Euro on it' spectacular. So I guess many
people went from a 2 year to a 3-4 year upgrade cycle.

~~~
lazyjones
The camera upgrade _is_ spectacular. But yes, it's not a reason normal people
would pay 700 € to upgrade, unless they're semi-professional
bloggers/Instagram users/whatever.

------
sschueller
Do we know if the lack of headphone jack has any effect on sales?

~~~
drusepth
AFAIK all we have are anecdotes, but I know a half dozen friends that decided
to "try Android" to keep their headphone jacks.

It's very possible they'll go back for the next iPhone iteration, but they
didn't buy the 7 because of it.

~~~
massysett
What Android did they buy?

~~~
drusepth
Some Galaxies (not sure which ones), one Nexus 6P, but mostly Pixels.

------
lvspiff
For someone who waited nearly a month to get my iphone7 (as an upgrade from a
galaxy s3) due to inventory being unavailable I'm going WTF - sluggish sales?
then why did i have to wait so long? But then at the same time I compare my
iphone 7 to friends iphone 6S models and realize...oh the only difference is
the headphone jack if you dont do x,y,z...no wonder they aren't selling too
many

~~~
matwood
Better screen, better camera, better external speakers, added waterproofing,
and faster. I'm not sure what people were expecting when they say nothing has
changed.

~~~
untog
Out of that list, the waterproofing is the only one that really stands out.
The rest are minor, iterative improvements. We're used to Apple making larger
leaps on even years (4,5,6) then iterative improvements in odd years (4S, 5S,
6S). But this year they broke that - the 7 feels more like an iPhone 6SS than
a 7. Yes, it's better, but it's not "full price for a new phone" better.

~~~
dan1234
Aside from better battery life (better as in 3+ days of use) I can't think of
much I'd want in a phone that isn't already there. Camera, display, speed etc
are all fine for my needs.

~~~
untog
I agree - which is why I, and many others, don't see the need to upgrade.
That's the problem Apple is facing.

~~~
dan1234
Yeah, still rocking the iPhone 6 here. I'd quite like the 3D touch that's on
newer models, but not enough to pay for a new phone. Will likely stay with
this until the battery drops off or it otherwise stops working.

Previously had 3G,3GS,4,5 so this is the longest I've a particular model.

Is the same stagnation in Android land too? I wonder how manufacturers will
handle it in the long run?

------
sbuk
Not one person has thought that this may be due to production of the next
iPhone beginning. Cook is a logistics guy and under him, Apple keep inventory
to a minimum. Add to the the fact that the quarter immediately following
Christmas is always sluggish. This looks like a normal shift in production
priorities.

~~~
amelius
If this were true, the supply chain would know about it.

~~~
sbuk
I missing the part in the article where it says this was a surprise to the
supply chain.

------
rcarmo
Sluggish sales? Well, they're sold out (and with a sizable backlog) here in
Portugal. A family member needed a new phone and we were put on a waiting list
for "at least two weeks".

No 7, 6s or SE have been available (unless you really like rose gold) for a
week or so now, at least in the couple of retailers and telcos I checked.

------
johansch
Oh, HN audience: how transparent you are.

------
unclebucknasty
Ironic that people continued upgrading for years when relatively few changes
were made, and Android continued to improve.

Then, shortly after they finally made significant changes (e.g. expanded form
factor choices), upgrades begin to slow.

------
mokash
I'm definitely not buying an iPhone 7. Not only did they remove the headphone
jack, they used their proprietary Lightning port. If they instead provided a
USB C port, I'd consider it. That's at least universally available and I can
see headphone manufacturers developing headphones which connect via USB C in
the near future. Carrying around a headphone adapter is just too much of a
compromise for me.

------
mpg33
I'm guessing iPhone 8 will be a enough significant design change to maintain
sales.

However we are getting to the point with smartphones like we did with PC's ten
years ago where they just became "good enough" for everyday use so the
constant upgrades were less necessary for normal use.

------
hedora
Does anyone know if this cut is:

\- sequential (fewer phones than christmas season)

\- YoY (year-over-year -- vs Q1 2016)

\- or vs financial guidance (an apparent difference between what they told
their investors they would do during the last shareholder call and their now-
current plan)?

Or is it something else?

------
theorique
This happens every year after the Christmas quarter and the tech idiots always
proclaim that it's the last nail in the coffin for Apple.

------
etjossem
"Breaking: iPhones sold well around Christmas, sales declined after everyone
bought a new one, just like last year. News at 10."

~~~
erdevs
This is not what the article says. It isn't discussing _quarter-over-quarter_
sales. It references year-over-year sales.

It is also discussing supply chain order volumes, which can indicate _future_
expectations of sales by the company (Apple).

------
sparkzilla
I just updated my ancient iPhone 4 for a Huawei P9 Lite. The main reason I
chose Android was I hated iTunes. It deleted my music library and was
impossible to manage. I really like the Huawei. It's fast, reasonably priced,
has a decent camera, and a good screen, and I upgraded the memory with an
extra 32MB for less than $20.

I had been led to believe that Android OS would be worse than iOS, but there's
no significant difference that would make me want to go back to iOS.

------
laacz
Isn't this just a way of trying to boost iPhone 7s/8 sales by cutting supply
of previous gen?

------
exabrial
If they want to boost sales, bring back the headphone jack and get rid of 3d
touch. Simple as that!

~~~
milesokeefe
What's wrong with 3d touch? I'm a fan of it, especially its use on the
keyboard to move the text cursor.

------
gist
And yet Apple market cap (618b) is almost as high as MSFT and IBM combined
(641b)

------
kjsthree
My Christmas wish is that sales tank to the point of triggering serious
introspection.

This would obviously bring back the headphone jack, and hdmi/magsafe to the
mbp. ;)

~~~
tajen
Do you know any company which recovered from introspection? It feels to me
like they all tank, whether it be Yahoo! or Nokia. My Christmas wish would be
to have enough competition that we'd have a real choice for privacy,
performance, jack/hdmi/magsafe/Fn keys, and open-source. "Be the change you
seek", they say.

~~~
kjsthree
No, you're right. Alas, my wish is fanciful. :(

------
etienne_ad
I hate not having a jack it really pisses me off

------
rqebmm
Normally I'm not a fan of clickbait headlines, but the authors totally whiffed
on "Apple to decimate iPhone production in the new year"

~~~
baldfat
Finally the historical use of the word Decimate. To remove 1 in 10.

> The word decimation is derived from Latin meaning "removal of a tenth" \-
> [http://www.dictionary.com/browse/decimate](http://www.dictionary.com/browse/decimate)

In Ancient Rome if a Roman Army was to be disciplined for desertion or mutiny
they would be decimated and 1 in 10 soldiers would be killed by the commanding
officer. They would use lottery system to choice the ones to be whipped to the
point of death and then beheaded. -
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decimation_(Roman_army)#cite_n...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decimation_\(Roman_army\)#cite_note-1)

~~~
kctess5
True! I just read about the "decimation of Aethelwulf" \- the ninth century
king of Wessex (current Great Britain) gave away a tenth of his empire in
order to secure the kingdom during his pilgrimage to Rome.

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Æthelwulf#Decimation_Charter...](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Æthelwulf#Decimation_Charters)

~~~
soylentcola
Cool! I like reading about that stuff, especially so since I've also been
watching the semi-historical fiction of "Vikings". The show is enjoyable even
when not historically accurate but it then gets me to read about the similar
things that actually happened.

~~~
kctess5
I watched "The Last Kingdom" from BBC (which I recommend) and it made me want
to know more about 9th century England. So far the book "Alfred the Great: the
man who made England" by Justin Pollard has been fantastic if you're into that
kind of thing. It's very well researched and historically accurate but not
overly dry, Pollard makes a point of not including too many footnotes in the
book as many of the more academically targeted books do.

------
3327
WOW genius sneaky news release the day before NYE when all the traders are
away from the desks and will be shitfaced drunk tomorrow and forget by monday.

------
wineisfine
It would be good if it was true, though. Just to wake them up.

------
masterleep
The 7 is really extremely boring, and the haptic button feels terrible.

------
bitmapbrother
I wonder how the pro Apple blog sites, where no news is bad news, will spin
this.

"Apple to focus on quality not quantity"

"Apple to give its workers extra time off for the holidays"

------
jjawssd
"Why Apple Was R̶i̶g̶h̶t̶ Wrong To Remove The iPhone 7 Headphone Jack"

------
redsummer
There's some real accountant-level decision making at Apple at the moment.

For instance, the MacBook Pro is exactly 3 lbs and the MacBook is 2 lbs. They
were designed with weight contraints in mind rather than the user. You have to
buy a DongleBook because of that.

Rather than a delightful experience, there is the feeling of having being
conned and someone making your wallet lighter.

Not surprising considering who is in charge.

------
erikb
I have an iPhone 6S since its first month. Just thought, you know, test it
once. But I always look jealously at my friends who run Android phones for
half the price. You can just do more with Androids, it's more efficient, the
keyboard is more efficient, apps can run concurrently, and to my surprise even
the cameras seem to be way better. Besides the brand I really don't know what
reason there is to buy iPhones. So to me it is no surprise that the sales
drops. Just means people still vote quality over empty brand value. (The same
doesn't apply to Macbooks afaik)

~~~
hellofunk
As a counter to just one of your points, you can also run apps concurrently on
iOS, in fact you can have them side-by-side, and for audio apps, multiple
separate apps can generate synthesizers and other music simultaneously while
another app mixes and records them. It's pretty neat stuff.

~~~
erikb
Can you link to a guide, YT video or something? I've never seen it in action.
I just see a lot of my apps only get active when they are the front app. Side
by side mixing and and generating sounds like the same direction I want to go
when using a modern smart phone.

------
cft
Bad news for smaller app developers: when Android becomes monopoly, apps will
be pulled left and right from Google Play.

~~~
nopreserveroot
For what reason? I would wager that 3rd party stores would gain popularity
should that happen.

~~~
fuayenah
If that happened, Google would stop letting you install those.

~~~
bearcobra
And you'd likely see a fork with support of the major handset makers and
companies like Amazon. Google has a lot of control thru Play Services, but
something that hostile would be a recipe for a split.

~~~
SEJeff
Oh right, something like Cyanogenmod, right? _ducks_

