
Existential climate-related security risk: A scenario approach [pdf] - MrtnVgng
https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/148cb0_90dc2a2637f348edae45943a88da04d4.pdf
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MrtnVgng
Is the scenario outlined in the paper realistic and probable? In my opinion:
unfortunately, yes.

Most people deny the conservative projections of the IPCC (they somehow
acknowledge the facts, but don’t act accordingly which is equivalent to
denial).

The problem is: some current observations indicate that even the horrific
projections of the IPCC might be too optimistic. Recent observations of
Canadian permafrost revealed that “thaw depths observed since 2003 met or
exceeded the projected thaw depths for 2090 under RCP 4.5” (see Canadian
permafrost thaw observed by American Geophysical Union).

