
Strauss–Howe Generational Theory - vermilingua
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory
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omeze
First inspection of this made it seem like a modern reskinning of Ibn
Khaldoun's Kitab al Ibar which also attempted to explain the rise and fall of
empires[1]. Turns out the wiki page calls this out as an explicit source of
inspiration. It seems like it might have more work around the causal mechanism
but I'm not familiar enough with the prior art. It also seems like they reject
the notion of technology shortening their proposed cycle time, again citing
human life spans & social standing as the primary mechanism for institutional
change. While I buy the intuition behind the ideas I'm not sure what useful
properties such an identification has. To instill confidence that newer
generations, in a healthy society, can reshape the institutions they interact
with reliably? To identify when this is not happening?

[1][https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibn_Khaldun#Kit%C4%81b_al-%CA%...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibn_Khaldun#Kit%C4%81b_al-%CA%BBIbar)

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rabidrat
Maybe to give us hope that now is not the beginning of the end of our
country/society, but merely another turning of the cycle, that will ultimately
yield more robust institutions and another 'high' that we have to look forward
to?

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rabidrat
We thought the Crisis that impelled the Fourth Turning would be 9/11, or the
2008 financial crisis, or the election of DJT. But those potatoes are too
small, turns out. Let's hope that the Coronavirus is actually the catalyst
that spurs us on to a more positive collectivism.

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IIAOPSW
Maybe the theory is just bunk because you can always post hoc fit a crisis to
a prominent figure. Crisis occur with statistical regularity. I'll be
impressed when SHG theory makes a testable prediction.

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pmiller2
What predictions does it make at all, testable or not? I was not able to glean
any useful information from the Wiki article, and I am not otherwise familiar
enough with the work to know.

