
Quietly, Japan has established itself as a power in the aerospace industry - rbanffy
https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/11/long-on-tradition-japan-grapples-with-a-rapidly-changing-rocket-industry/
======
nimbius
As someone intimately familiar with japanese manufacturing (I work as an
engine mechanic at an auto repair chain in the midwest) this comes as no
surprise to me.

remember when you first bought a new car? the manual said an oil change was
required after 400-500 miles? thats due to a japanese invention called the
self clearancing piston. a certain amount of piston wall is designed to wear
off to develop the final piston clearance in the engine block. this cut
manufacuring times drastically for some of the most critical components in the
engine.

Japanese metallurgy is also miles ahead of what US steel is in my opinion.
They are more willing to put exotic metal blends in their cars than their
american counterparts. For example, a regular sedan from the US might contain
a hardened borg warner gearset for all models. The japanese will adjust the
transmissions for nearly every model based on what the car or truck is.
turbocharged all wheel drive vehicles get 15% more nickel in their gears than
their front wheel drive counterparts. This leads to a car with unreal
longevity and durability.

They do this with motor assemblies too. Its not uncommon to see working sets
of motors in japanese cars that are 30 years old where window motors and such
would easily have failed in american sedans. potted, brushed high quality
motors were a fixture on practically every japanese sedan in the 90s for even
boring stuff like mirror adjustment.

~~~
jgust
I don't know how to word this without sounding condescending, but how did you
end up on hacker news given your profession? I get the impression that the
majority demographic here is involved with software in some fashion, so seeing
someone with a "blue collar" job stuck out to me. I tend to spend my free time
tinkering with engines, so my thought is that you may spend your free time
tinkering with software? Anyways, glad to see non-software people here to make
discussions a bit less homogenous.

~~~
BJBBB
Sorry, but does sound a bit elitist. Coding has become a somewhat skill set
among some blue-collar workers, and have seen some good stuff come from
electricians, plumbers, and mechanics.

I know many civil, mechanical, chemical, and electrical engineers that write
good code to solve important problems. I know few programmers that know
anything about circuit design, plumbing, carpentry, etc. But do believe that
the programmers that frequent HN are probably more apt to be multi-skilled and
a more renaissance-type of person.

~~~
umichguy
I am a non-CS engineer - have a masters in Auto Systems - programming has
always been part of all/most courses I took. Granted, I am probably pretty
poor at things like JS and others as I never really used them, but we used a
lot of things like MATLAB/ OCTAVE, Python and a few others in our coursework
and work life. I have transitioned out of auto sector into consulting side
(non-CS) of things, so now use a lot of data analytics and BI tools including
Python, Tableau etc.

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jillesvangurp
It's not just Japan but also China, India, Russia, and the EU that each have
ambitious space programs and have had them for quite some time. The US has
historically been leading the pack as space programs have been very expensive.
However, what we are seeing now is commoditization of technology and vast
decreases in cost. SpaceX has quite effectively shown that you can out compete
bigger players with a combination of modest availability of capital, talent
and out of the box thinking. The level of their capital expenses is quite a
lot more reasonable than what it took Nasa to get to the Moon or running the
space shuttle program. It gets it down to the level where aspiring
billionaires can get things done in reasonable time frames on reasonable
budgets (Bezos, Musk, Branson, etc.). Likewise, any multinational or country
with access to similar resources can hope to achieve similar results.

So, there is going to be a wave of countries, companies, and people trying to
get to emulate SpaceX. Of course the military angle here is scary. Several of
these countries are also nuclear powers and the nature of space rockets is
that once you can get them to space, delivering payloads back anywhere on
earth is relatively straightforward. That used to be the exclusive domain of
the US and Russia. That's no longer true.

~~~
readhn
Russia cant really compete on a mass scale. They can create maybe one-off
things but nothing on a scale that can threaten other nations.

~~~
jillesvangurp
I agree that their economy is a mess. However, they do enjoy a monopoly on
transport to the ISS currently and that is due to them having better and
cheaper rockets than Nasa. This is being fixed of course but that is after a
rather embarrassingly long decade of being dependent on the Russians and their
Soviet era rockets still being quite awesome. My understanding is that their
engines are still quite competitive, even when compared to SpaceX and Blue
Origin. So, I wouldn't discount them outright.

If through some uncharacteristic set of events manage to pull their heads out
of their asses, they are still well positioned to do awesome stuff going
forward. Of course, the current kleptocracy is hopelessly inept and unlikely
to get much done on this front. That seems to be the tragedy of Russia.

~~~
umichguy
The Russian RD-180 engine is a masterpiece.

~~~
azernik
Also a late-Soviet design, though.

~~~
umichguy
Yep. Pretty much most of the current designs trace back to the Soviet days.

------
Theodores
The title isn't fair to the established international role Japan plays in the
aerospace industry or space.

The Boeing 'Dreamliner' is one-third made in Japan. Re-supply missions to the
International Space Station have been completed without incident by Japanese
craft. Even the largest module on the ISS is Japanese. Japan has been busy.

Before WW2 Japan was in possession of a remarkably large fleet of aircraft
carriers with the planes to go with them. In the post WW2 years the electronic
components for those planes bombing Korea had to come from somewhere and
Japanese people were doing all the hard work making and packaging those
avionic nuts and bolts, even if for Western customers in the defence sector.
So it is a long history tied into global projects and multi-national
companies, not some 'secret effort to get started now'. It is a tale of
evolution, not some nationalist effort with no long term goals.

When the USA decided to put a man on the moon there were 400,000+ people
working for NASA, directly or with a contractor. The trip to the moon was
chosen just because it hadn't been done and it was unlikely that the Soviets
were going to do it any time soon. There was no plan for a next step, once the
goal had been achieved. Hence we ended up with low-earth-orbit projects and no
effort to put a man on Mars or establish a lunar base for further exploration.

Japan has 'quietly' got on with the real projects that are needed when it
comes to aerospace and space, there has been no grand-standing or opting out.

~~~
baud147258
The Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has also launched the
Hayabusa 1 & 2 missions to study asteroids.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayabusa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayabusa)
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayabusa2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayabusa2)

------
ekianjo
> (Editor's note: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries paid for the author of this
> story to travel to Japan and spend several days visiting company facilities
> there.)

OK, so it's pretty much a PR piece. That should have been mentioned right at
the beginning of the article, not as a footnote on the last page.

~~~
astrange
It's mentioned in the third paragraph.

~~~
rbanffy
And it felt as a pretty honest and accurate depiction.

~~~
ekianjo
I guess you'll never know since it's a package that was paid for. The only way
to guarantee a honest description is not to accept any kind of money from
whoever you write about.

~~~
rbanffy
It's naïve to think that guarantees honesty.

~~~
ekianjo
it does not guarantee it, but thats a necessary condition.

------
liftbigweights
Japan has been a power ( relatively speaking ) in the aerospace industry for
very a long time and it was never a secret and they certainly weren't quiet
about it. What they have been quiet about is that their aerospace industry is
also used to maintain a quasi military/icbm capability. Just like japan's is
open about it's nuclear industry but quiet about the fact that their nuclear
industry is used to maintain their latent/defacto nuclear power status. But
then again, all aerospace industries and all nuclear industries are also
linked to the military everywhere.

Japan has been the 2nd or 3rd largest economy in the world for 50 years. JAXA,
after NASA and ESA, is probably the most technical advanced, well funded and
respected space agencies in the world. A nation can't have such a large
economy for this long without being a "power" ( relatively speaking ) in most
sectors. Japan, despite its pacifist constitution, also has one of the best
funded militaries as well.

~~~
SiempreViernes
Are you saying that Japan has a covert nuclear weapons program?

~~~
detaro
Japan is considered a de-facto nuclear power because they do not need a covert
nuclear weapons program right now. They're advanced enough and have the
materials and infrastructure that if they ever decide to abandon current
policy of "we do not want nukes being made or stationed in Japan" they can
become an actual nuclear power within a year or so.

~~~
le-mark
So enriched uranium or plutonium on hand? Because it would take time to build
all that infrastructure; my understanding at least.

~~~
jbay808
The main obstacle is cultural. Even contemplating the building of nuclear
weapons is considered a deep disrespect to the memory of the people who died
in the nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. There would be a lot of
domestic opposition to any such project, and it might even be difficult to
recruit people and companies to contribute to it, because involvement in that
work could harm their reputation. But they definitely aren't lacking the
technological, material, or financial ability.

(Source: lived in Japan and discussed this with various engineers there)

------
Symmetry
In addition to boosters, Japan is the only nation to have launched a practical
solar sail spacecraft[1]. They've also got another spacecraft[2] orbiting an
asteroid with the intent of returning a sample from it.

[1][https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IKAROS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IKAROS)

[2][http://www.hayabusa2.jaxa.jp/en/](http://www.hayabusa2.jaxa.jp/en/)

------
nkoren
Good article. The most hopeful thing in it is their response to the
development of reusable rockets "We feel a strong sense of crisis."

Good. They should. It's an innovation that is changing the industry with
_extreme_ rapidity. Almost universally, the established players in the sector
-- both domestically and internationally -- have been in a state of extreme
denial about this, making increasingly tortured arguments for why reusability
isn't worthwhile or even possible to do. The longer they remain in this state,
the more they undermine their future. Nice to see that Japan is confronting
this head-on (even if there is still a _bit_ of denial evident).

The end of the article, talking about women's participation in the workforce,
isn't just political correctness. Japan has a big problem here, and it will
impair their ability to innovate.

This isn't just about having women in senior leadership positions (although
that's not unimportant). Watch the SpaceX webcast and you'll see that their
crowds of (often very young) engineers are thronging with women, minorities,
people who've dialed their queerness up to 11, etc. What's going on here? I
don't think that SpaceX's hiring practices involve much affirmative action;
from everything I've heard, intelligence, passion, and commitment are the
qualities they hire for. But, critically: they give zero points for fitting
into the culture of old grey company men. This differentiates SpaceX from the
establishment and gives them an abundance of bright young things that are
_clearly_ fuel innovation.

The culture of old grey company men is something that Japan has _bad_. They do
have some traditions which act to counteract this -- a practically spiritual
commitment to quality of service & craftsmanship has driven Japanese
innovation for centuries -- but that's not going to be enough to compete.

~~~
tlear
You realize that webcasts extras are not random sample of SpaceX engineering
force?

Japan biggest challenge is collapsing population.

Honestly Space or NK for that matter are tiny problems for Japan. Debt and
birth rate is what they need to face. That is real crisis.

~~~
nkoren
I've known some folks who've worked for SpaceX, and more who'v interviewed. My
sense is that the webcasts are fairly representative of the youthfulness and
diversity of the company.

(Context: I started getting involved in space activism as a teenager in the
early 1990s. The first conference I went to was a bunch of mostly-veteran
Apollo and Shuttle engineers. I remember looking around the room and noting
that I was the youngest person in the room by 2 or 3 decades, and also that
there wasn't a single woman or non-white face present. Nothing against these
guys at all -- they were great! -- but demographics like that will lead any
movement to extinction. So I find it enormously satisfying to see how those
demographics have changed.)

You're absolutely right that Japan's biggest challenge is its collapsing
population. However, excluding half your population from meaningful
participation in the workforce -- at the same time as your population is
collapsing -- makes a bad problem significantly worse. In fact both problems
have pretty much the same solution, starting with changing the culture such
that it doesn't force Japanese women to choose between between being a mother
and having a career.

~~~
tlear
Thing it is a choice all women have to make. US or Japan. As you go past late
20s the clock is ticking. You basically need 2-3 years per kid to write off
your career(so about 6 years for replacement rate). Unless you are making
enough to hire full time help or have your parent works as that full time help
for free. Since me and wife neither of the two applied(well we could hire help
but we both kinda want kids to grow up raised by a parent instead of a nanny)

Japan is at the point where half measures like subsidized daycare are long
past. They need to literally pay people to have kids at this point. Give
massive tax credits for kids etc.

Workforce itself is not that big deal. Japan unlike US is VERY easy to bring
qualified people to work. Trivial really none of the US tech visa nonsense.
Hire a guy, he is in the office month later. We have people from Netherland,
Uruguay, Canada, Belgium etc. Tokyo is now trivial to live in with zero
Japanese language ability or to find work as a qualified person. The pay is
low by US standards though.

------
axus
Another Mitsubishi company, Mitsubishi Electric, builds the satellites that
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries launches. They are independent companies; just
yesterday, a Mitsubishi Electric-built satellite was launched on a Space-X
rocket from Cape Canaveral: [https://spaceflightnow.com/2018/11/15/spacex-
launches-qatars...](https://spaceflightnow.com/2018/11/15/spacex-launches-
qatars-eshail-2-communications-satellite/)

Slightly related, during that launch it was funny how the video from the
fairing rocket cut out while it's still in space, and a minute later video
from the landing boat shows the rocket on the launch pad like nothing
happened.

------
User23
Japanese quality is fantastic. But few know how it happened. Homer Sarasohn's
influence is almost impossible to overstate:
[https://honoringhomer.net/](https://honoringhomer.net/)

------
azernik
"...MHI's chief executive, Shunichi Miyanaga, or Miyanaga-san as he is known
throughout this building and beyond."

That's how _everyone_ in Japan is addressed: $FAMILYNAME-san.

~~~
lovemenot
Right. And later we get incorrectly:

>> If Japan has an internationally known rocket personality, it is Ogasawara

He is introduced without honorific, no doubt because company insiders did so.
But the reporter as an outsider is not entitled to do that.

~~~
azernik
Referring to someone by family name is standard Western journalistic practice;
the specification of form of address for Miyanaga is only amusing to me
because it's specifically called out.

Ogasawara has the added (and rather shocking, from a Japanese perspective)
twist of insisting on being addressed by first name, which the journalist does
after mentioning this.

------
Nokinside
Having aerospace industry is not just economic policy issue.

Japan, US, China, India, Russia, EU, maintain aerospace industry for strategic
purposes. Civilian and military aerospace are tightly linked.

~~~
Apocryphon
Perhaps one day SpaceX will likewise have grander desires.

------
readhn
I think Japan can really make it a reliable streamlined technology. After
reading about the setup of some of their production systems its not longer a
surprise to me why they make some of the most reliable tech out there
(automotive industry for example).

------
kubakan
Why do these people always spend the first 20% of the article talking about
themselves. Its like they wanted to be a gonzo journalist but could only land
a tech blog gig.

------
esaym
Funny since they were banned from making anything aerospace related after
WWII.

