

Peter Diamandis' Top Tech Picks for 2015 - joubert
http://peterdiamandis.tumblr.com/post/107230206418/my-top-tech-picks-for-2015?utm_content=bufferb1084&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

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SocksCanClose
I think this is a pretty aggressive timeline.

These technologies are certainly nascent -- but they have been, and will
continue to be. I doubt that we will see widespread adoption of ALL (or even
25% of them) over the next 350 days.

More likely -- using Diamandis' own descriptive memes -- I believe many of
these technologies are likely to hit an inflection point (i.e. where their
exponential growth becomes an observable phenomenon) in the next five years.

> VR - obviously FB is making a huge play here, but Magic Leap is the real
> (pun intended, if you've seen the promos) elephant in the room. And I have a
> hunch that their technology won't be ready for at least another 18 months.
> And it's not even VR, it's AR (which I think is going to be easier to
> swallow for most consumers).

> Mass Market Robots. Roomba is already around. The question is robots for
> _what_. I don't see the killer app quite yet. Perhaps as industrial
> assistants? Amazon already uses them to great effect in their warehouses.
> But that is well out of the public eye.

> Autonomous vehicles. Sure, I'm planning to buy a car with autonomous
> capability in the next 18 months, but full explosion of this technology is
> going to require governmental concurrence, and lots of work by the insurance
> industry. And neither of those work very fast. If only for this reason, I
> see 10% market saturation as at least 4-5 years away.

> Drones "everywhere". They're still toys with remarkably short battery life.

> Wireless power. My personal sense is that Apple is the market-leader in
> expectations management for mainstream adoption of this sort of tech. And
> until it's integrated, I don't think it will see widespread adoption.

> Data + Genomics. No idea. But I do have some up-close experience with a non-
> public project in this area, and I have to admit I'm shocked by what they're
> able to do, putting large datasets to work. Here I agree with Diamandis that
> we might see something spectacular happen over the next year. But what -- I
> don't know.

> Sensor explosion. It is certainly coming. Not confident in the next year.

> Voice Control. Very much agree here, but because of the Apple Watch. All of
> a sudden an entire generation that saw Siri as a nice-to-have will now see
> it as a need-to-use -- and this will cascade downmarket to the Google and
> Microsoft ecosystems as well.

> 3D Printing. Upcoming patent lapses and adoption by large-scale corporations
> will likely drive this -- not consumer leadership. The biggest news I saw in
> this was Local Motors' initiative to build a 3D car manufacturing facility
> in Washington, DC. Once that happens, all bets are off because both
> corporate and consumer sectors will start to understand the true
> implications for the technology.

> Bitcoin. Agree in principal. But just as important is the underlying
> blockchain technology which could revolutionize many more things than simply
> currency. But yes -- here too, adoption via Apple is the leading indicator.
> And I believe that ApplePay (and potentially even an Apple currency) is the
> future.

