

Why Apple Will Hit $1,650 by the End of 2015 - swalsh
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson/2012/03/21/why-apple-will-hit-1650-by-the-end-of-2015/

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Zimahl
The highlights from the end of the article.

> iTV’s adoption should be even faster than iPad.

This seems really dubious. If I understand it right we are talking about a
full TV that has all the features of an iPad, not just a set top box. I
already have a great TV that I'm not going to pay a premium to replace just
for Angry Birds. And a preliminary Best Buy customer survey had the 42-inch at
almost $1500(1). You can buy a much bigger and better TV for that much.

> Feature phone decline will open the door to massive iPhone growth.

Maybe. There will be growth once TMobile gets an iPhone, but the reality is
there is more competition than ever. I think moderate sustained growth is
likely, definitely not 'massive'.

> The iPad market could be close to the size of the PC market today in a few
> short years.

Well, PCs seem to be a declining sector, especially considering I can surf the
internet on my phone or tablet on my couch instead of heading to a sit-down
PC.

> Macs will keep taking share in the PC market as people look to complete
> their iOS set.

PCs are declining, and Macs are picking up a share of a declining market. The
synergy with iTunes helps sales but the entire market is not going to get them
to 2.5 times their current stock price.

> iAd and iPay are both wildcards here. They could be much bigger than what
> even I optimistically envision.

Or both much smaller.

Ads are a tough market. Not a lot of people are having explosive success like
Google. There's money, but I don't see Apple being the company to tap into
that market. Unless they lock out other ad networks in their iOS apps forcing
devs to use their system, but that's not a good approach.

As far as mobile payments, I'm not sure what the author thinks Apple is going
to do. Unless they open their own financial institution and start their own
credit card they will still have to pay fees to Visa and MasterCard. I don't
see Apple as that company.

Other highlights:

> Education could massively adopt iPads to replace text books.

Lol. Maybe at a private school, but not in a public school. Kids suck at
taking care of things that aren't theirs (and sometimes even their stuff) so
it would be prohibitively expensive.

(1) [http://www.extremetech.com/computing/117305-apple-itv-
detail...](http://www.extremetech.com/computing/117305-apple-itv-detailed-its-
like-a-42-inch-ipad)

~~~
joejohnson
The iTV may very well be a set top box. Apple has been posturing themselves to
take on the cable companies with a disruptive technology, just like they did
with the mobile phone carriers and the iPhone.

And PC sales are not in decline, as you suggest. The article states that
market grew 10% last year.

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mdkess
Bubble, bubble, trouble, trouble!

I love Apple, but is a company that makes cell phones and fancy laptops going
to really have a market cap of 10% of the (current value) of the DOW? I don't
think so.

At this point, investing in a hot stock like AAPL is just gambling. It's a
very real possibility that in the next 3 years, the influx of tablets and
smart phones completely stalls iOS's growth. Plus with the newest wave of
Ultrabooks, Apple is not as far ahead of the competition as they were two
years ago. I mean, I don't think that Apple is going to go anywhere soon, and
they will continue to grow, but I think that a lot of their near term future
success is already built into the price of the stock.

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joejohnson
_It took Apple 6 years to sell 100 million iPhones. They’ll sell 100 million
iPads in 4 years. If I’m right, they’ll sell 100 million iTVs in 3 years.
People’s desires for the latest and greatest device to complement their iOS
set is increasing over time._

Minor nitpick, but the iPhone came out in 2007 - 5 years ago. These numbers
seem suspect...

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omi
The same reason no one reads Forbes anymore :D

