
Siberian heatwave of 2020 almost impossible without climate change - tannhaeuser
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/siberian-heatwave-of-2020-almost-impossible-without-climate-change
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eloff
I've been thinking that there are a very small number of countries that will
hurt less from climate change, possibly even benefiting on the whole. Canada,
Russia, the Nordic countries, maybe Mongolia.

Because these countries have relatively few vulnerable coastal cities, and a
lot of land that's too cold to do much with. Yeah some places will get drier,
but some will get wetter too (I think overall it gets wetter, but that doesn't
mean much to people in areas that turn into deserts.)

Anyway I like to talk to people about it because I've noticed a very visceral
reaction among progressives (translation: it gets down-voted on HN) that there
could be any "winners" in climate change. It has to be all bad. They might
well be right, but I think my point is still valid. Again, I'm not sure these
countries will "win" but they'll be relative winners in a game full of
negative prizes. If you disagree, engage with me, don't just click on the
arrow.

~~~
swiley
It seems strange that people aren’t buying more arctic coastal land as an
investment IMO.

On the other hand it’s pretty hard to figure out who to buy it _from_ and
you’re literally betting on a combination of weather and geopolitics which
seems a bit irresponsible.

~~~
jobigoud
> It seems strange that people aren’t buying more arctic coastal land as an
> investment IMO.

The rise in sea levels will be global though.

~~~
eloff
Interesting aside, not really. It won't be even. It has a lot to do with
rebounding land and gravitational effects of ice sheets, etc. Sea levels will
drop, at least initially, in some places even though the overall trend is
rising sea levels. It's a complex topic.

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skymer
The title understates the authors' actual claim: "We found ... that this event
would have effectively been impossible without human-induced climate change."

If someone wants to take the time to read the whole 35-page study, it would be
interesting to know whether "human-induced climate change" is now just a
synonym for "climate change", or is part of their research.

~~~
MCOfficer
Unverified guess: it's to distinguish the rapid climate change happening since
the 1850s from the slow, natural climate change that has been known to happen
over millennia.

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fokinsean
I saw this theory floating around. Haven't done much research but it sounds
"plausible". Could Siberia warming be due to the ocean around it heating? The
magnetic poles have been moving increasingly faster towards Siberia in the
last few years. These poles move because of underground streams of the molten
core deep below. Could these new flows potentially heat the earth's surface
and the ocean above?

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novaRom
Global warming is more complex. For example, we have extremely cold summer
with lowest night temperatures under 10°C even in July (average low of last
years is at least 14°C).

~~~
mempko
Worldwide , the summer is one of the hottest on record. It's only colder in
parts of North America

~~~
rangibaby
So far it’s noticeably cooler and wetter in the main island of Japan compared
to the last few years

~~~
goblin89
The relationship between climate and weather can be locally counterintuitive.
When a lot of ice starts to melt, you get colder weather.

At a smaller scale I got acquainted with this paradox as a child—where I grew
up, every spring temperatures drop substantially for a period of time as
rivers and lesser ice caps unfreeze.

“Why is it getting colder?” “Because it is getting hotter!”

At larger scales, if say parts of Arctic melt, that would cool _a lot_ of air,
and where this airmass ends up there will be cold weather.

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EGreg
I know we have been gaslighted a lot by the right wing about climate change,
but honestly, what can we do about it? The current lockdowns and limits on
travel achieved the largest drop in fossil fuel usage probably ever done in
human history. As people choose to work from home, and as more people go
vegan, these trends may continue. And?

We need carbon sequestration, maybe.

PS: will the sun entering a cooling period have any serious effect at all on
Earth?

~~~
take_a_breath
==As people choose to work from home, and as more people go vegan, these
trends may continue. And?==

Neither of these things are guaranteed to continue after COVID passes. More
Westerners going vegan doesn’t automatically lower emissions if people in
developing countries continue to grow their meat intake.

On the flip side, if people move out of urban cores and increase online
shopping, those might have a negative impact on emissions.

Edit: Seems like people are misinterpreting the "negative impact on
emissions". By that phrase, I meant that more personalized delivery and
suburban living may very well lead to an increase in emissions. Apologies for
the confusion.

~~~
EGreg
People moving out of urban cores _increases_ emissions, because they now have
to build and heat/cool more homes, and most importantly — commute to work.
Suburbia is probably one of the biggest contributors to fossil fuel usage.

~~~
take_a_breath
We agree, it was a poorly written phrase. Please see the edit.

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SwiftyBug
It's unbelievable that we're still trying to convince people that human-caused
climate change is a fact. We are doomed.

~~~
cowmoo728
We're still convincing a significant portion of the US population that
covid-19 is real. Climate change is dramatically harder in two ways:

1\. the timescale is decades and centuries, not weeks and months

2\. there is a trillion dollar financial interest against fighting climate
change

Given what we're seeing with covid-19 and how much harder climate change is to
deal with, I'm not optimistic.

~~~
dtwest
No, the vast majority of Americans think covid-19 is real. Vox had a poll
saying it was in the area of 1%. The issue is many don't want to be forced to
wear masks, which is dumb and selfish, but not what you are saying.

Meanwhile as of 2019, over 20% of Americans doubt climate change, a much more
significant number. This is far too high in my opinion, but it is steadily
improving.

~~~
hwillis
About 34% of all Republicans say that the theory that the outbreak was
intentionally planned is definitely or probably true.

> About a third of those who have heard this claim (36%) – a quarter of all
> U.S. adults – say that they think it is “definitely” (8%) or “probably”
> (28%) true.

[https://www.journalism.org/2020/06/29/most-americans-have-
he...](https://www.journalism.org/2020/06/29/most-americans-have-heard-of-the-
conspiracy-theory-that-the-covid-19-outbreak-was-planned-and-about-one-third-
of-those-aware-of-it-say-it-might-be-true/)

72% said they would not get a coronavirus vaccine:

[https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/05/21/most-
americ...](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/05/21/most-americans-
expect-a-covid-19-vaccine-within-a-year-72-say-they-would-get-vaccinated/)

~~~
dtwest
72% say they would get vaccinated, you aren't reading your articles correctly.

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mtgp1000
>In places such as Siberia, a hotter climate can have devastating effects, not
just on the local wildlife and people who live there, but also on the world’s
climate system as a whole, for example through thawing permafrost, reduced
snow cover and melting ice.

My biggest issue with climate alarmism is that sources universally consider
only the negative outcomes of climate change. Thawing permafrost also opens up
an enormous amount of arable and habitable land. Some species will benefit
from warmer temperatures and extended ranges (and that's not just insects).

Not to mention that neither the change or the rate is unprecedented according
to geologic data.

The world is very unlikely to end, human migration and economic impact will be
gradual (≈100) years, and people need to consider that mitigation of climate
change at this point is also not "free" when they ask people to go vegan
(yeah, right).

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stormdennis
Seeing kids swimming in a lake in Siberia, they were having a good time at
least. Also I'll long have fond memories of the year 2018. Being snowbound for
a week (unprecedented here since 1947) and then a long glorious Summer. Bliss.
BTW, I don't have a car any more (I've been solely remote working for 5
years), last time I flew was six years ago so yeah I'm doing my bit for the
planet but I'm going to enjoy the good it brings and not worry about it.

~~~
kiliantics
The only way we can really "do our bit" is by actively pushing for systemic
change, not by making change on an individual level. Because, unless you make
it easier for the average human (not the cushy middle class westerner that can
work remotely) not to contribute to greater carbon output, it won't make a
difference.

Rather than buying long-lasting products as an individuals say (instead of the
fast-fashion or planned obsolescence products that most people buy), we could
push for legislation that makes those products less available and helps people
to buy more natural-resource-efficient-in-the-long-term products. Most people,
who are not well off, have no choice but to buy the cheap stuff that breaks
soon. Most people have to drive in a carbon-emitting car to work because there
is no electrified public transit. Most investors prefer to build products in a
cheap way that they can flip fast because it leads to greater returns. Until
we can collectively reverse the logic of this system, we will not be "doing
our part".

We need to be up in arms and posing real challenges to the people in power
that could change this situation, until they do change it sufficiently.
Protests have not been working, boycotts have not been working. There are not
many options left apart from general strikes or all out revolt. As you can
see, the youth have actually understood this and have been on a school strike
for nearly 2 years. However, this is not a sufficient threat to those in power
and it must grow and include everyone else before we will see meaningful
change.

~~~
stormdennis
I'm not a consumer by nature. I spend less than €100 a year on clothes I'd
say, I cut my own hair, I wear clothes over and over till they fall apart, I
shower a couple of times a week. I'm not middle class by anything other than
mentality maybe. The nearest public transport to me is a bus stop 2 miles away
with a few buses per day. I coppice trees grow vegetables. The worst I do for
the planet is eat meat and drink milk. To be honest I'm a bit tired of
listening to lectures from people who in their own lives are green at the
margins but think nothing of taking a flight.

