

Is IRobot a Potential Apple Acquisition Target? - beambot
http://robotstocknews.blogspot.com/2010/10/will-apple-google-or-microsoft-buy.html

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ivankirigin
I used to work for iRobot. This post is gibberish. The companies he mentions
just aren't that interested in robotics. Microsoft has made some progress in
robotics development environments, but that isn't a large priority for them.
The market there is incredibly small while there is a small developer
ecosystem. Apple most especially wouldn't be interested.

More importantly, you probably don't understand this source as well as I do.
This blogger has been posting for years about iRobot's stock. It seems he has
remained bullish on iRobot the entire time. This is just the latest post
saying how awesome iRobot is. The problem is that few others in the market
agree. He mentions that their stock is 3X their 2008 low. That's lovely, but
my options are still under water from 2006. It's laughable really.

I do think iRobot will be acquired within a few years, but the most likely
buyer is a defense contractor. Foster Miller went through a similar
acquisition with Qinetiq. To stay independent, iRobot would need to make new
robots - but they have refused to invest internal research & development
dollars in any meaningful way. This is why products like the Warrior take so
long for development - the dev is trickled in through contracts depending on
the whims of DoD and Congress. None of this is private information by the way:
as a public company their are very scrutinized about their iR&D spending.

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thornstevens
If you read the post, the point is made that a defense contractor is a more
likely takeover candidate in the near-term. But five years from now, why
wouldn't a forward looking guy like Steve Jobs, or even Bill Gates, turn their
attention to home robotics?

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ivankirigin
Because the business of building robots has nothing to do with building OSes
or media players? How about that for a start?

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thornstevens
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I see home robotics as the natural
progression of computing into the home. A world where your iPad, your phone,
your computer, your TV and your home robots are all connected. It's very
limiting to think of home robots as just a vacuum cleaner. The vision is for a
family of robots taking care of you and your home — doing chores, providing
entertainment, doubling as a security guard, keeping an eye on grandma and
making sure she's taking her pills. The iPad makes all this so much easier
than pre-iPad, because it can be the face and brains of the robot, and you
just need a chassis to attach it to. There's so much potential just waiting
for somebody with deep pockets and vision to get it done.

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ivankirigin
The problem is that there are toys and vacuum cleaners and not much else. It
will be at least a few years before we have another compelling category of
home robot. You should strive to understand the reasons for these short term
limitations.

But the net effect is that it is very much only vacuums for at least a few
years.

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tomerico
Steve jobs has a tendency to identify technologies which are on the brink of
succeeding, and bring them to the mass market. Examples are pixar, the iPhone,
the iPad and early exclusions (apple was the first to exclude floppies from
their computers, and optical drive with the MacBook air)

In that sense it is only natural for apple to enter the robotic market. And
with apple's secrecy, they may already be in it.

It will be very exciting if they will release a general purpose robot, with an
app store, of course. I can just imagine paying $4.99 for the back massage
app, and $0.99 for the fart app :)

Another positive effect that would happen if apple enters this market, is that
all the tech companies will follow, and the technology will enter a rapid
development stage, as the smartphones are in today.

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thornstevens
Robotics certainly needs somebody to kickstart it. It's hard to do when the
biggest consumer robotics company is worth about $500 million. You need real
scale. The kind of scale that Apple could instantly provide.

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jonhendry
It's really more of a Google thing to do, though. Heck, they're already
getting into robotics with the self-driving cars.

Apple's only interest in robotics would be in automating its facilities, and
Steve already did that at the NeXT factory.

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tocomment
When do you think we'll see the next generation of home robots? Do you guys
think iRobot has any revolutionary consumer products in the works?

BTW when will lawn mowing robots be commonplace? It doesn't seem that much of
a harder problem than vacuuming.

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thornstevens
Lawn moving robots are already around but pricey ($1K+). This blog, Robot
Stock News, has a report on iRobot's patents for a robotic lawnmower, Roomba
upgrades and more. iRobot also has promised new home robots soon, so we will
have to see...

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hop
This author doesn't know Apple or the type of companies they acquire. If they
wanted to make autonomous vacuums, they could do it 10x better in house within
a year, iRobot is not a talent acquisition, and more importantly, they are not
going in the cleaning business under Steve Jobs.

List of Apple aquisitions -
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mergers_and_acquisition...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mergers_and_acquisitions_by_Apple)
if you don't have novel software or silicon design capability, Steve Jobs very
likely doesn't need/want you.

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thornstevens
Why not a talent acquisition? iRobot has the best roboticists MIT has to
offer, and a growing trove of patents.

Apple isn't in the cleaning business now. But they weren't in the music
business 10 years ago.

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hop
_iRobot has the best roboticists MIT has to offer_

Really... they go to iRobot rather than NASA and the Joint propulsion
Labratory, Boeing, Honda, Lockheed, DARPA, etc...?

How do you think and iRobot's control system compares to an autonomous
predator drone?

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robotresearcher
Some of them do, yes. For reference, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory is a NASA
Lab, administered by Caltech. DARPA is a a funding agency and doesn't actually
do any research itself. It generally employs only late-career scientists and
engineers as program managers that hand out the money to researchers at actual
labs at universities and companies.

iRobot was started by Rodney Brooks, at the time the most famous roboticist in
North America and Director of CS and AI at MIT, and his students. This team
has attracted a lot of good talent over the years. Now the team has broken up
and there has been little interesting robot development for a while. But the
intelligent robot industry is still very small, and the good grads have to go
somewhere. Outside university labs, the hot job recently has been at Willow
Garage.

(robot research prof here)

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hop
Thanks, I am a mechanical engineer and worked on a DARPA challenge autonomous
vehicle in college. These control systems get complicated very quick and I
have much respect for the people working to conquer them.

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makmanalp
No. AFAIK, irobot makes their money primarily from defense contracts, not
primarily from roombas.

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thornstevens
It's about 50-50, with slightly more revenue ($200 million plus this year
alone) from home robots.

