
Covid-19: Impact on business sectors and the economy - rbansode0588
https://blog.smallcase.com/the-new-normal-analysis-of-covid-19-on-indian-businesses-sectors-and-the-economy/
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baxtr
_> The biggest worry is a mutating virus that brings wave upon wave of
attacks, each deadlier than the other._

From all that I've read and heard from virologist this is highly unlikely to
happen. The way I understand it is that once a virus has jumped from animals
to humans its virulence and danger will decrease continuously. A very simple
explanation goes like this: the virus most lethal in the beginning because the
human immune system is "naive" regarding that specific virus because it has
not been exposed to it. For example, Prof. Drosten said in one of his podcasts
that he could imagine you'd get Covid a second time after 2-3 years. But then
it will be very mild, like a any normal cold.

So the biggest worries shouldn't be mutations of the SARS-2 virus but the next
deadly bug crossing the animal-human barrier, e.g. a new influence virus breed
in live stock somewhere.

~~~
GuB-42
We also put pressure on viruses to make them less deadly.

Dead people don't spread the disease. And less symptomatic strains of the
virus are likely to go unnoticed and therefore spread more rapidly.

I've seen some epidemiologist say that SARS-CoV-2 is expected to turn less
severe and become endemic, causing common colds like the other 4
coronaviruses.

~~~
jotm
Hmmm, aren't we actually helping the deadly strains by putting a lot of effort
in keeping those people alive? Those who usually would be dead, can actually
survive nowadays, and that virus could somehow spread further?

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taftster
Yeah maybe, but that's a pretty bleak point of view. "Sorry, you need to die
so that this deadly variety can't continue to spread." I think we'd all rather
give a fighting chance to anyone needing it using the best tools available.

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simonh
I found this quite superficial. No mechanisms were proposed for why and how
any of these things are supposed to come to pass. What forces will drive them,
and once the virus is dealt with why would those forces persist?

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Hoasi
> The next 5 years are going to be the golden period for media and
> entertainment. 3D/4D chatrooms and conference rooms will emerge rapidly. The
> largest chunk of media spending will shift from television to digital. Print
> media will cease to exist.

These questions are interesting to ponder. However, assertions do not rule the
world. You can claim anything you want, but that doesn’t make anything more
plausible. Statements like that ring correct at a particular point in time
because we look at events through a specific glass. A few years down the line,
when they turn out to be completely erroneous, only a few people will notice.

> The next 5 years are going to be the golden period for media and
> entertainment.

This statement is vague. Software is eating media and entertainment. The
current trend has fewer people able to make a decent living in these fields.

> 3D/4D chatrooms and conference rooms will emerge rapidly. > The largest
> chunk of media spending will shift from television to digital.

That happened, no longer a prediction.

> Print media will cease to exist.

Radio already died several times also.

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weinzierl
> Adversely affected Sectors

> [..]

> Auto sector (which includes automobiles and auto parts) will > continue to
> face challenges on account of lack of demand, global > recession and falling
> income levels.

I wonder if the auto sector will see a little boom post lockdown, but before a
vaccine is available, because no one will want to use public transport
anymore.

~~~
Spooky23
My guess is that it will be like 2008/9\. Catastrophe for two-four years, then
a boom as there will be a shortage of used cars.

It’s already impossible to get mortgage refis. Who is going to want to hold
the risk of an asset backed loan at the beginning of a depression?

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zrail
It’s hard to get a refi because there was a huge demand spike when the Fed
dropped the rate to zero. As that gets cleared out it’ll get easier again.

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whutwhut
>Countries like China & India stand to benefit from low crude-oil prices and a
younger population which can kick in low-ticket consumption demand.

India is young. China is not. Oil prices will rise quickly as Saudi Arabia
gains a near monopoly

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splittingTimes
[https://english.alaraby.co.uk/english/comment/2020/4/16/coro...](https://english.alaraby.co.uk/english/comment/2020/4/16/coronavirus-
could-make-a-mirage-of-saudis-vision-2030)

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whutwhut
India is young. China not so much. Oil prices will rise quickly as Saudi
Arabia gains a near monopoly.

