
Sweden to shut bars and restaurants that ignore coronavirus restrictions - samizdis
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-sweden-stockholm/sweden-to-shut-bars-and-restaurants-that-ignore-coronavirus-restrictions-idUKKCN2262AQ
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greendave
I'd be happy to believe that Sweden has found a better way to deal with
things, but at the moment they have 5x the number of deaths per population of
California (2150/10.1 million vs. 1500/40.0 million). That's not great.

I also think there's unacknowledged element of luck in a lot of these
outcomes. A few infected individuals a month or so back in the wrong
time/place makes a huge difference in the progression of the disease. Likewise
when testing is relatively sparse, it's easy to get a mistaken view on where
things stand.

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gindely
Their gamble is that it will come out in the wash - in the first period they
will have scary, unpleasant numbers. But as the disease progresses through
every community will have the same scary, unpleasant numbers - but in Sweden
the economy will be able to reopen fully and finally in a month or two after
everyone is recovered. But for the rest of us, it'll take an extra six months
or a year; the same amount of people will die[ _] it 's just a matter of how
fast or slow.

[_] in the non trivial sense, since obviously we'll all die; but presumably we
won't all die from this pandemic.

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outside1234
That's only true if the hospitals don't overload. If they overload, many more
will die because they could have been saved with treatment.

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Phenomenit
They're definitely stressed but not overloaded. Still we don't know how long
the medical personnel will find this stress tolerable. Right now they are
using a emergency provision that enables them to order workers to work 48 h a
week but for much higher pay.

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gbasin
Seems like Sweden is on track to hit herd immunity long before everyone else,
with minimal economic damage. Their daily new case count has been mostly
plateaued for weeks, like many other places in full lockdown.

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jjgreen
And that seems to anger a lot of people, as if they are invested in the month
they've spent inside. People are strange ...

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notfromhere
Herd immunity without a vaccine isn’t a strategy. It’s just justifying doing
nothing.

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xiphias2
Not really, if age separation can be achieved efficiently, herd immunity
wouldn't be impossible.

The problem is that you really need an advanced country to organize separating
people by age (making young people get through the virus without passing it to
older people).

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gindely
I would have significantly more respect for the Swedish approach if they had
protected their elderly and other vulnerable communities. The fact is that the
weak do not account for an unavoidable minority of the deaths.

The Swedish approach may get them out the other end before any country aside
from China and Vietnam, but the Swedish execution did not save lives by
protecting the vulnerable.

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oxymoron
That was the intention, and the actions where designed for it. However, the
care of elderly are handled by the municipalities, who didn’t have any
readiness for handling it properly. Hopefully some of those mistakes can be
avoided outside of Stockholm by more extensive testing of personell.

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exabrial
> I don’t want to see any full open-air restaurants

What??? Isn't that precisely _the best_ option intuitively? I'd much rather be
outdoors with a high rate of air flow than inside. No idea if this has been
studied but it seems obvious.

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schwap
They don't want to see any restaurants that are full, not a statement about
restaurants that are fully open-air.

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olodus
I don't get why people don't just buy their own beer and go sit in nature. You
can even bring some friends. It is large masses of unknown people that we
should avoid.

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exabrial
nearly local city governments in the USA won't let your exercise that freedom.
We have some strange holdover laws from the prohibition era.

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gindely
Isn't that what a paper bag is for? I was told in America it's perfect because
it's unreasonable search.

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exabrial
Haha. I never thought of that

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outside1234
Sweden is clearly undercounting their cases by up to 4x. They have the same
number of deaths as Canada but 1/4th the cases (17k vs. 42k).

This is also supported by their low testing per capita number.

Source:
[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries)

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guerrilla
There's nothing "undercounted" about the confirmed cases number. To be
confirmed, one must be tested and to be tested one must seek medical
attention. People are encouraged not to seek medical attention unless it is
necessary. There is even a nationwide advice nurse number that people are
instructed to call in order to screen them before they do so.

They aren't claiming that the number of confirmed cases is that number of
people who have or have had the virus, which is something they've pointed out
in several of the press conferences, it's just the number of confirmed cases.

The difference you're seeing is the difference in conditions under which
people get tested.

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notacoward
"as the weather got warmer, people in the capital were beginning to ignore
social-distancing rules"

So much for the argument that Sweden's approach was working because Swedes are
so much better than the rest of world at voluntary compliance. Overall, it
looks like Sweden is moving toward doing the same as every other country, but
quietly so they don't have to admit it's a change of course.

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soperj
On a per capita basis, some days this week where sweden had 172 and 180 deaths
in a day would be the equivalent of the US having 5600 and 6100 deaths a day.
Their approach is absolutely not working.

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londons_explore
If they get it all over with in 30 days, when the USA takes 300 days to get it
over with, they are still looking smart...

What matters is deaths overall, not deaths per day.

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notacoward
> If they get it all over with in 30 days

Time's already up.

As I've had to point out many times, "get to herd immunity faster" doesn't
just mean let everyone get sicker sooner. The whole "flattening the curve"
thing is not about an alternative to herd immunity. It's about getting there
in a _humane_ way that doesn't overwhelm health care and disproportionately
affect some groups - the elderly, minorities, people with other health
conditions, people who have no choice but to work and expose themselves more.
"Let the chips fall where they may" is a recipe for excessive and unevenly
distributed suffering. And worst of all, it might not even help reduce the
total deaths over the long term. That's highly speculative and dependent on
other factors.

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SpicyLemonZest
The reason you've had to point that out many times is that it no longer
matches common usage. Most people who use "flatten the curve" nowadays insist
that it _is_ about an alternative to herd immunity, that herd immunity is
absolutely unacceptable and we can't permit it. (You're right that this is not
originally what the phrase meant.)

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soperj
Herd immunity might not even be possible. Other coronavirus immunity lasts on
average a year. There are other viruses like HIV where you can't get herd
immunity.

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microtherion
> There are other viruses like HIV where you can't get herd immunity.

Well, maybe if we had just engaged in a vigorous program of needle sharing and
unprotected sex, we'd eventually have gotten there.

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soperj
No, it's impossible based on the virus.

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vanilla-almond
This news report from the BBC on Sweden's approach gives both sides of the
debate an airing.

 _Why Sweden rejected a coronavirus lockdown_

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzzVxw5FyYs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzzVxw5FyYs)

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hachibu
The news cycle is so chaotic and contradictory these days that I can't make
heads or tails of anything.

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paul7986
Yesterday we saw a report saying herd immunity was working there ..now bam the
next day they are starting to lock things down?

Which is it?

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oxymoron
A recent estimate puts R at around 0.92-0.98 in Sweden, which means that it’s
right around the treshold of sustained epidemic vs staying under control. If
people start to become more lax around social distancing restrictions, it
could shift the balance back up over the treshold.

