

How will 3D printing affect the chinese economy? - gmatty

So with the inevitability of 3D printing. Any thoughts on how that might affect the chinese economy as so many simple toys and that come from china could now be printed at ones computer for even less?
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wladimir
I don't think the production of simple toys will be affected at all by 3D
printing, at least for the considerable future. Mass-production is so
incredibly cost-effective for items that are all the same.

3D printing is nice for prototyping and for custom fitted, user-adapted items.
This will likely remain a high-end segment for a long time. Eventually, we
might be going for an economy in which every product ordered is printed and
produced adapted on demand to customer's wishes, but I'm not sure how
realistic that is. There will likely always be something to win by exploiting
scale. Especially for low-end products.

2D printing didn't replace print shops with specialized mass-production
equipment for printing books/magazines either.

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DennisP
That will be the case until people have 3D printers in their homes, and you
can download a toy instead of buying it.

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KrijgDeMeuk
In that case, I WILL download a car.

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curt
You'd be amazed at how cheap mass produced injection molded parts are, 3D
printing won't ever come close to those prices. Also you're forgetting about
the assembly cost which is the Chinese advantage.

Really I don't think it will change even the prototype industry much, maybe
for first runs but for production models I like to select the finish, shine,
paint, etc and a 3D printer just can't do that at the same cost. Even
comparing turnaround time, I can get a prototype rushed from order to me in 24
hours for less than a $1000. If you're willing to wait a week, a few hundred
and it looks like a factory part.

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personalcompute
Not less. A machine designed to do everything can never beat a single-purpose
factory line. Admittedly though, they may save on time and transportation
costs.

My prediction is that in order for these machines to become mainstream some
companies will need to allow reproduction of their product designs first, and
create a digital channel specifically for delivering the designs to consumers
and their 3d printers.

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nickels
I am surprised that so many here have a generally pessimistic view on 3D
printing. While I am no expert in the topic - it seems like a technology that
could drastically accelerate production of custom parts, simple objects, even
simple machines which would require some assembly. I've read that 3D Printing
kiosks will be deployed later this year in certain retail chains for ordering
and pickup in a system similar to those photo kiosks at your local
Walmart/Target. When the tech advances to a point where downloading build
files + materials cost is comparable to the cost of transporting cheap goods
from China we will see mass adoption. The cost of importing from China is
heavily subsidized by cheap oil transportation fuels. That being said, I see a
bright future for instafab technology and the resulting products. Future 3D
designers could gain followings, build entire brands & businesses around the
resulting distribution model.

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yannickmahe
China is slowing, but surely, going towards a service oriented economy. The
stated goal of the PRC governement for their next 5-year plan was to move from
40% of the economy in services to 70%. This goal is, IMHO, attainable for
China which not only has a vast higher education system, but is also following
the example of Japan, Korea and Taiwan who went through the same transition.

As that will clearly decrease the need for manufacturing in China, the ability
for us to print the goods they are now creating cheaply will hardly affect
their economy.

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ivoflipse
They will always be able to do things cheaper. Because their manpower is
cheaper, they will buy and sell stuff in larger quantities and produce it with
their own materials (which is at the moment the costly part).

For now, unless you have a Makerbot and want ABS lego, consumers simply can't
afford 3D printing their toys with commercial 3D printers. It's just like with
regular printers: the ink is more expensive than the printer itself!

However, that's not to say that it will always remain that way and I can't
wait for that day to come!

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znt
Maybe they'll produce cheaper 3D printers and make profit again!

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haploid
In the same way that inkjet printing affected the book publishing industry.

Try printing a full-length book on your desktop printer, and let me know how
much the total cost of your time, the paper, and the ink is.

Compare it to the cost of a normal paperback and then note that the quality of
the typesetting on your printed version sucks, and there's no cover.

