
Android Orphans: Visualizing a Sad History of Support - estel
http://theunderstatement.com/post/11982112928/android-orphans-visualizing-a-sad-history-of-support
======
d_r
The current situation is somewhat unfair to the indiscrete / non-tech-savvy
consumer since they might buy an Android phone without understanding the
differences from the iOS ecosystem. At least several of my friends did.
"They're about the same right? And this one was $30 cheaper!" And I genuinely
feel bad every time this happens.

Note that I of course have no gripes with Android OS/concept itself -- it's a
good contender to iOS. My gripe is with the current gouging of consumers by
hardware manufacturers/cell phone companies, of the fragmented/poor/outdated
hardware coverage in many models, lack of upgrades, et cetera. And don't
forget the mandatory "crapware" that carriers pre-install.

This is quite different from buying, say, a Dell/HP PC vs. a Mac -- in both
cases do you get a working, upgradeable machine.

~~~
SamColes
Are OS updates really that important for most consumers?

I have a Desire running Froyo. I don't think I've really missed out on a huge
amount by not getting Gingerbread.

~~~
davidedicillo
While it may not be directly important to the final users (if you don't count
security upgrades between versions), it definitely impact the ecosystem. If
you need to pick a platform to develop for, you go for the more homogeneous
one from a OS point of view. Also enterprises invest more in devices that have
a longer support life. They want to buy something that even in 2-3 years is
fully supported by the manufacture.

~~~
vetinari
Enterprises don't care about device support life. They care, if the phone will
survive for about two years. Then the employees will start bug you, that they
want new gadget (I know, we have several hundred of them...).

------
degusta
I wrote the piece / did the research. Happy to answer any questions or
comments people might have.

~~~
robinduckett
You should include iPod Touch and how apple forces a charge for updates on
that device.

This chart is also skewed a bit and should be based on intervals of releases
rather than "years since". I don't recall seeing any iOS5 backports to iPhone
2G or 3G.

~~~
degusta
No, the original iPhone & 3G don't support iOS 5. But they did support the
current version of iOS for 3 years after they were released - far more than
any Android phones of the period.

(And, no, they don't charge for iPod Touch updates any more - that was
technically an accounting regulation issue that the government changed.)

~~~
cbracken
Though to be honest, for the iPhone 3G, the longer green bar is easily
misinterpreted as a positive thing, when for the most part, iOS4 rendered the
phone very painful to use. 15-30s wait times for camera shutter, frequent
hangs, constant crashes in Maps, being the main pain points with the two that
my wife and I owned. If they'd have continued security and minor app updates
for iOS3 on the 3G, I'd have been much happier.

~~~
jsz0
The first releases of iOS4 for the 3G were pretty bad but the subsequent
releases greatly improved things. I recently sold my old 3GS so I updated it
to the latest 4.x version and it was totally usable. Slower than iOS2 but for
a 3.5 year old device I thought it was completely acceptable performance. In
the rush to release iOS4 I think Apple didn't have time to optimize the 3G
release. They seem to have learned their lesson with iOS5 for the 3GS.

~~~
mschaef
There is an __enormous __difference between a 3G and a 3GS. My wife and I have
one of each, both running 4.2.1. Her 3GS is usable, my 3G really isn't. The 3H
suffers from lots of OOM-killed applications, and a huge number of 30-40
second pauses that freeze the entire UI. (Although AT &T seems to be equally
good at dropping calls placed from either.)

I hear you on the 'Apple didn't have time to get the 3G release right'. That's
fine. I have no problem with being stuck on iOS 3.x. Good iOS 4.x would be
best... Good iOS 3.x would be almost as good... but bad iOS 4.x is awful. They
either should have invested the time to do the release correctly, or just not
ship the update to the 3G.

------
ajanuary
Limiting it to 3 years masks the fact that lots of people still had iPhone 3G
phones on 2 year contracts when Apple stopped offering updates for it.

That said, the fact even that's off the scale is worrying for Android.

~~~
betterth
You're right, but as a current iPhone 3G owner not getting updates, I can say
that I had a great life for this phone (3.5 years and counting) and that I'm
not mad Apple decided to stop supporting it. It's a very old device with very
little memory - very difficult to support I imagine.

And I'm okay with it because I know Apple has conservative product life cycles
and will stick to it. And I know the next iPhone get will be supported for 2-3
years at least, as well.

~~~
masklinn
> I can say that I had a great life for this phone (3.5 years and counting)
> and that I'm not mad Apple decided to stop supporting it.

I think ajanuary is talking about the fact that the 3G was still for sale
until right before the iPhone 4 was released (see black rectangle). So people
who bought a 3G right before the 4 was released (not necessarily a smart move)
got about 10 months of support (support essentially ended in March 2011, with
iOS 4.3)

~~~
watmough
I speak from experience when I say, putting iOS 4 on the 3G was just a
terrible idea.

The 3G should have stayed with the 2G in being restricted to iOS 3.1.3, which
whilst no speed demon, at least runs reasonably well, even now.

The 3GS is the lowest hardware that should have been given iOS 4.

~~~
tptacek
Didn't they address that in a subsequent iOS 4 update? My understanding is
that 3G iOS4 support got a lot more tolerable.

~~~
masklinn
4.2.1 did improve things significantly, but it only made the 3G go from
"completely unusable" to "slightly painful to use".

The device is still much slower and less smooth than on 3.1 due to higher base
memory requirements (as a result, not only are most applications slower to
load some will not load at all on 4.2 and will instead crash due to going OOM
and not being able to clear out anything upon receiving an OOM signal).

~~~
watmough
I say this somewhat tongue in cheek, but you wouldn't say 'improve' if you'd
ever seen my wife swearing at her phone.

My own app FemCal, runs pretty well on 3.1.3 on a 2G, but I think almost
everything is a struggle for iOS 4 on the 3G.

In particular, the new Facebook app appears to be unusable on the 3G nowadays.

~~~
masklinn
> you wouldn't say 'improve'

Improve over 4.0, which was completely and utterly unusable. I still have my
3G, so I can see what it is daily. A 4.2.1 3G is generally slow and laggy, but
for the most part it works (as far as I'm concerned anyway: all tapbot
applications run acceptably, Instapaper, Wikipanion and Terminology work and
so do most — though not all — of my games).

Not saying it's great, or even good (compared to 3.1), but that I can use my
phone is a net improvement over 4.0, which had essentially killed the bloody
thing.

> In particular, the new Facebook app appears to be unusable on the 3G
> nowadays.

I wouldn't know about that. I have no use for facebook's application.

------
jsz0
The lack of feature-updates is disappointing but they can get by forcing
people to buy new phones for new features. It's the security side of this that
could really blow up in their face. It's only a matter of time before these
lingering security issues come home to roost. I wonder if Google has any plan
to deal with the possibility of millions of Android phones and their
associated user accounts being compromised? The risk is amplified by having
all your eggs in the Google basket. What happens if your phone gets exploited
and you just can't login to GMail tomorrow? (and you can't call Google for
help) Unless you happen to be a high profile blogger or journalist you're
going to have a hard time dealing with this type of thing.

------
SandB0x
There's a major point that can be added to the _Why Don’t Android Phones Get
Updated?_ section: Third party skins and interfaces.

HTC's Sense, Motorola's Motoblur and co can only introduce an engineering
overhead and delays in upgrading. I would much rather they concentrated on
making awsome hardware and leaving the UI to Google, rather than attempting to
differentiate themselves in this way.

~~~
billjings
If I were Motorola or Samsung, though, there's no way I'd do that. Without
differentiation, you're selling a commodity product. If you're selling a
commodity, there are no margins.

I agree with you that it would be better for the Android ecosystem if they
would, though.

~~~
dman
HP, Dell, Lenovo and Sony would like to have a word with you - they have been
selling PC's without custom UI's all this time.

~~~
jfb
And look at _their_ margins.

------
kalleboo
How many PC users are still using XP, a 10 year old OS? If the version of the
OS you have still works, it still works.

The real issue here is security updates. Google need a way to update core OS
component that aren't affected by the manufacturer's UI skinning.

~~~
drivebyacct2
Most people don't know this, but Google actually retains the ability to hotfix
core security issues without the manufacturers. This has happened with devices
when a weakness was found in how passwords were transmitted for sync. Also,
manufacturers push out security updates from different teams than their
Sense/Blur/etc teams.

~~~
andrewpi
I believe the Google sync hotfix was a server-side fix.

------
juliano_q
I think that the fact that the chart stopped at June 2010 makes it looks much
worse than it is now. Android is newer than iOS and works on a very different
environment. Support 4 devices is much easier than 4 thousand.

If you extend this chart to 2011 you will notice that the platform is more
mature and most of the phones will receive ICS (my wife Galaxy S is a
relatively old device and will get it).

~~~
degusta
You might be right re it gets better - though not as sure about the ICS bit.
It is my intention to keep at it & add (ideally) every phone.

~~~
fluidcruft
Here, I'll fill in a data point you missed:

Motorola Milestone XT720 released June 2011 (USA: August)

Runs 2.1

No bugfixes

No updates

No upgrades

Buggy as hell. 2.2 upgrades and flash support pledged by Motorola
sales/support at the time of release in the US -- later clarified that those
employees had been "confused" when the mothballing was made official in late
November.

Those Apple green bars look quite nice, but I'm not a fan. Maybe add some
Windows phone.

The problem as I see it is that since Android is Open Source, the
manufacturers don't abstract their innovations into a HAL. For example,
Motorola's FM radio and HDMI support is peppered all over inside the core
eclair framework. So, someone has to mix it all together again with each new
release. Usually in the FOSS space, we like to believe that the effort of
maintaining private forks encourages companies to contribute their efforts
back to the open source project. That doesn't work here, because manufacturers
like Motorola also have the viable option to simply abandon their forks. Which
is even less effort.

Apple has a huge economy of scale--only four or five devices (most very
similar) with relatively humongous market share per device. The
personnel/device ratio obviously supports a much better customer experience
than any Android device can offer (with the exception of perhaps the Android
developer phones).

I can only assume Microsoft knows what they are doing and enforces
abstractions and barriers that limit the scope of manufacture monkeying.

~~~
andrewpi
This phone was released in 2010, not 2011, right?

~~~
fluidcruft
Yup, sorry, don't know why I typed that.

------
ricw
It's funny that these kind of long-term "features" don't get taken into
consideration for any of the phone reviews. Its probably one of the most
important features of a phone.

I'm currently torn apart between buying an iPhone 4s and the galaxy nexus, but
given that I can expect the iphone to be supported and updated instantly and
regulary for a long time, and not with any of the android phones (less than 2
years for the original nexus phone), I think iphone it will be.. despite
prefering the openness of android.

~~~
bad_user
There's a flaw with that list ... it makes it seem like iOS 5 is supported on
iPhone 1 and iPhone 3G. It isn't and there's nothing you can do about it.

It is deceptive, and for HTC G1, the first Android device, official support
may not be good, but you can painlessly install Froyo on it, because it isn't
locked and Froyo works well on it. You can also install Gingerbread for that
matter, but CyanogenMod dropped the support for it because of severe hardware
limitations.

Basically if you get a Google blessed phone, like the Nexus One, or the Nexus
S, or the next Nexus, you will be able to install the latest Android as long
as the hardware itself is capable enough.

I do agree that iPhones are a lot more comfortable.

~~~
loire280
The chart cuts off after 3 years - the point is that the original iPhone was
supported with the current version of iOS for 2 years after the last one was
sold (minus two days - iOS 4, the first version to drop support, came out June
21, 2010).

On AT&T, at least, most iPhone customers are eligible for an upgrade after 18
months because of the cost of their plan, so everyone was eligible, by a
significant margin, for an upgrade before their phone was droppped.

~~~
ajanuary
Not true if you got a 2nd generation iPhone. You could have gotten a 3G as the
latest phone and been unsupported for 9 months on an 18 month contract.

~~~
loire280
True, and I've heard that iOS 4 didn't run so well on the iPhone 3G in the
first place. However, even once support was dropped, the iPhone 3G was still
on the current _major version_ (4.3, a relatively minor update, is the version
that dropped 3G support), and it doesn't seem like apps required 4.3 until
well after that version was out. That's a big difference than being 1-3 major
versions behind on Android (especially considering the rather substantial
changes in each major version of Android).

------
zmmmmm
While it's definitely a problem for Android and extremely disappointing that
devices under contract are not supported with new versions, looking at it on a
device basis is somewhat unfair : the actual number of such handsets 3
versions behind in the real world are miniscule - according to the actual
usage statistics, 84% of users are on 2.2 or better, and the functional
differences between 2.2 and 2.3 are fairly small. The percentage of users on <
2.0 are down to ~2% at this point.

I'd much rather see the platform being pushed forward than spending great
amounts of time trying to shoehorn it onto extremely old devices used by 2% of
people.

------
joebadmo
1\. Anyone who cares about OS updates would only have ever owned three or four
of the phones on the chart.

2\. Anyone who cares about OS updates doesn't keep a phone for longer than 2
years. Most spring for an early upgrade after 1.5. Many (like me) finagle a
new one every year or so.

3\. My wife has never updated the OS of any of the 3 iPhones she's owned. I
believe she is representative.

~~~
kisielk
According to some sources, it looks like iOS 5 adoption is up to 1/3 of
eligible devices: [http://www.localytics.com/blog/2011/ios-5-already-
powering-1...](http://www.localytics.com/blog/2011/ios-5-already-
powering-1-in-3-eligible-devices/)

------
methodin
So the point of the graphic has to be that most people don't really care,
right?

------
Rabidgremlin
Whilst I agree that this is a problem (especially since it looks like my Nexus
One won't get the the upgrade) a mitigating factor as an app developer is
Android's backwards compatibility.

For instance is my app targets 2.1 it will run on all on 2.1 and above which
is currently ~97% of all active devices.

Check out [http://developer.android.com/resources/dashboard/platform-
ve...](http://developer.android.com/resources/dashboard/platform-
versions.html) for the active OS version stats collected by Google in the last
14 days.

------
gnubardt
From data we've collected[1] more iOS devices (the majority) are running the
most recent version of the OS, compared to Android.

Even though they may have an update available (non-eligable devices excluded)
not every user knows how or is able to update their device.

[http://blog.brightcove.com/sites/all/uploads/image/brightcov...](http://blog.brightcove.com/sites/all/uploads/image/brightcove-
html5-graphic-1-1.jpg)

    
    
      [1] http://blog.brightcove.com/en/2011/10/brightcove-unveils-next-generation-video-cloud-smart-player

------
masklinn
The graph is debatable for the 3G: its last update was 4.2.1 released __28
__months into the phone's lifecycle, but it did not get iOS 4.3 release in
March 2011. Talking about "major version" sounds like a lie/cop-out in that
case, since iOS receives pretty major updates in "minor" versions (4.3
included personal hotspots, ASLR, a JITed javascript engine, settings
rearrangements and reworks, the ability to cancel an application update or
remove an application being updated mid-download, ...)

~~~
delackner
From a developer standpoint, the Major version releases are far more
important. All I have to choose is "am I going to support 3.1.x devices, or am
I going to limit myself to 4.x devices". Even better, now that iOS5 has
arrived with (very pleasantly smooth) support for the 3GS, the choice is "do I
support 3.x or 5.x" since the last years of devices ALL support the APIs in
the most recent OS. That is huge.

Just yesterday I realized that a long-standing bug is fixed by iOS5, and that
since nearly all of our customers will be running 3GS or newer hardware, I can
depend on that fix with confidence when we release our next version soon.

~~~
masklinn
> From a developer standpoint, the Major version releases are far more
> important.

Sure, but the graph seems to take user-point considerations foremost (#1),
before developer-point considerations.

------
dman
The android team needs to pick a leaf out of the Google Chromes book. Chrome
makes updates seamless and I wish android was the same.

------
iaskwhy
How do buying apps works on Android and all its versions? I remember buying
apps on my first generation iPhone that then wouldn't support iOS 3.x but the
Store still let me buy it. Is it the same on Android (but worse since there
are so many different versions around)?

~~~
juliano_q
No. The apps are targeted to a version (like 2.1 or above) and the devices
below 2.1 don't see the app in the market.

------
RexRollman
To me, Android is a fragmented soup sandwich. I like the idea of having
choices for hardware, but under Android:

\- You can't assume what's going to be on the phone, software wise. Each maker
evidently messes with it, sometimes even changing the interface itself. I've
also read stories of bloatware being added.

\- You can't be sure how software updates are going to be handled, because
that varies depending on maker and carrier, meaning you might not get updates
they same time others do (this is also a problem for Windows 7 Phone).

\- Crappy cell provider logo plaques on the hardware (I detest that).

\- Multiple/competing app stores.

I believe that Android has a lot of promise, but Google really needs to start
exhibiting some control over what's going on.

~~~
angryasian
the interfaces and multiple app stores are strengths of Android. If I don't
like the default launcheror the default lockscreen or the keyboard, I can
change it. Customization is a strength. It might be hard for IOS users to
understand. Also multiple appstores is a strength because, competition is
always good for the consumer. If you are afraid of the relaxed rules of the
google market use amazon. If you want huge user base, use appbrain.

~~~
RexRollman
Customization is fine, when end users do it, but companies should not be
messing with Android like they do (or at least, they shouldn't be able to
refer to their Frankenstein creation as "Android").

------
pasbesoin
I'm getting sick of Google's "see what sticks" and "let the end user fend for
himself" attitude. I really wanted their various platforms to work, but now
I'm just getting tired.

------
AlexV
I compare Google's Android ecosystem to a restaurant: I ate once and received
wonderful food and service. I go there again next week and the food is cold
and the service is rude.

Android's inconsistency is as big problem for Google as it is to the
restaurant - if it's inconsistent, I stop going.

I own several Android devices, with the SGS2 being the latest. If it is going
to be inconsistent with the update & timing as the rest of them - next time
I'm going to the competition, whoever it might be.

------
bpolania
It's an important omission not to mention that Android-based phones prices are
declining at a much faster pace than iOS based phones. This is important
because in many cases updating from one android to the next version (and
sometimes to the next next version) is less expensive than buying a simple
iPhone, rendering the need for further support unnecessary.

~~~
maukdaddy
But people are limited by a 2 year contract for the "cheap" phones. They can't
upgrade until that two year period is over.

Suggesting that people upgrade to a new phone vs. upgrading software is
terrible business and environmental practice!

~~~
vidarh
You can't pay to upgrade?

I'm in the UK, and here you can upgrade at any time - you'll just pay more for
the phone if you upgrade within your current contract period.

As for environmental practice, there's a number of companies that'll refurbish
used phones and sell them on, and they'll even give you a bit of cash for it
if it's a reasonably recent phone. Here in the UK most of them will send you a
prepaid envelope you can just drop your old phone in, and mail you a check
when they receive it.

------
asmosoinio
Looking at the big picture from Android Market point-of-view, developer can
easily ignore the 1.5/1.6 crowd, and 2.1 is a small part of the whole:

1.5/1.6: 2.5% 2.1: 11.7% 2.2: 45.3% 2.3.x: 38.7% 3.x: 1.9%

[http://developer.android.com/resources/dashboard/platform-
ve...](http://developer.android.com/resources/dashboard/platform-
versions.html)

------
ticks
This is why the phone gods gave us CyanogenMOD.

------
hamletdrc2
Am I misunderstanding this:

"7 of the 18 Android phones never ran a current version of the OS." "12 of 18
only ran a current version of the OS for a matter of weeks or less."

That makes 19 out of 18 phones. That looks like an error. I wonder what other
errors there are here?

~~~
degusta
Yes, it's 7 that were "never" and 5 more that were "weeks", so 12 total that
were "weeks or less". I struggled with that phrasing a bit - either way seemed
wrong.

------
Mordor
This guy is a hero :)

------
gcb
Great graph.

and to think i switched from a series of Nokia phones (because they loose
support every 6mo, to the point you can't even buy a working headset cable or
extra charger for them) and bought a nexus one because i thought "spending
$700 to buy an OPEN phone directly from google will get updated software for
life and consistent use of cables and standards"

~~~
mdwrigh2
To be fair, you do get to use all of the new accessories and cables. Plus if
you want to run ICS, while Google may not support it, it certainly seems like
Cyanogen will have a version for the N1.

~~~
gcb
hum... you may want to check your facts.

the desktop dock and car dock was discontinued what? 4 months after the
launch?

HTC only resumed selling 1.5yrs later. During that period the car dock was
selling for $200 used on ebay. I have no idea if HTC still sells those now,
but wouldn't be surprised if not.

As for "new accessories" i bet most of them will use the near field thingy and
be useless for the nexus one.

~~~
mdwrigh2
I have yet to see a new /accessory/ use NFC (really, the only thing I've seen
use it is Wallet-like applications and check-in type applications).

The desktop dock is still sold by HTC, but the car dock doesn't appear to be.
Regardless, they're just a device that holds the phone and charges it. There
are plenty of generic docks that still /do/ that (and probably a few third
party ones that do it as well).

------
dsfasdfdfd
And this is one reason why Google bought Motorola Mobility.

------
jellicle
Apples and oranges. An actually useful version of this graph would compare the
Google phones to the Apple phones, and then in a separate table, compare the
support for OS updates for other parties using the operating system (Apple
would have no entries in that second chart, of course, but that's their
choice).

In the first hypothetical chart, I believe Google's support for Google phones
compares acceptably well with Apple's support for Apple phones.

~~~
ericd
Semantics. What matters to consumers is whether their phones get the new
features, not who wins this pissing match.

~~~
drivebyacct2
It _is_ an issue of Semantics. Buying a Sense ridden phone from HTC and buying
a Nexus from Google mean two entirely different things about the consistency
of the phone and the timeliness of the software updates.

~~~
ericd
Right, I was talking about my original parent's point about how to make it
fair, the chart maker should have split off the ones not made by Google and
just compared the Google made ones vs. the Apple made ones. But not many phone
purchasers actually care about that comparison - which company spawned the
better ecosystem, they care about the phone they end up with. Hence, throwing
them all together like he did in comparing the ecosystems was the appropriate
thing to do.

