

Take Buffett's Billion - cjcenizal
http://www.takebuffettsbillion.com

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rakoo
For the people outside of this world like me, a March Madness Bracket [0] is a
classical grid of a championship involving US basketball teams.

[0]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_Madness_pools#Brackets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_Madness_pools#Brackets)

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selectout
I've always been curious how many actually unique brackets get submitted to
the major bracket places. I'd imagine there's about 5,000-10,000 unique
brackets that cover 99% of the people.

It's the one feature I'd love to be able to see is if I have submitted a 100%
unique bracket on my own.

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thrush
Was going to sign up (because why not?), but then I didn't like some of the
questions they're asking me.

[https://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/quickenloansbrack...](https://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/quickenloansbracket/challenge/)

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jleehey
Hate to be the skeptic, but what's to guarantee that the winner will
distribute the winnings evenly? It's not like the site has any official
connection to the contest.

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cjcenizal
Hey, I'm one of the guys working on this project. You're right, we're not sure
how to make sure the winner splits the money with everybody, but given how
unlikely it is that anyone wins at all, we're just focusing on executing the
bracket distribution for now. If someone actually wins, figuring out how to
get that person to split up the money is kind of a nice problem to have! Just
think of the drama...!

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bduerst
FYI - this isn't a good pitch to get me to sign up.

At least have a TOS saying you'll distribute the winnings.

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supremum
wow this is amazing haha!

when you say "statistically best bracket choices", does that mean you're
applying a prior on the guesses?

If yes, could you give us some more details on how you're arriving at the best
way to spread our guesses?

My colleague was doing some work on sports betting and remarked how the
current odds are actually really good predictors for the outcomes.

cool idea well done :)

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brianbarker
So this pool has 8,832 members. Even if they're unique, 8832 out of how many
possibilities there are isn't changing your odds much.

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Bahamut
The idea is nice, but the statistical odds are against you. Say you have a 50%
chance of picking it right each time. With the play in games, you have a 1 in
4 chance of getting those right. With the regular 32 games, you would need to
get all of them right, or 1 in 2^32. With the next 16 games, you would need to
get 2^16 correct. Then 2^8, 2^4, 2^2, and then 2^1.

Multiply them all together, you get 1 / (2^2 * 2^32 * 2^16 * 2^8 * 2^4 * 2^2 *
2^1) = 1 / (2^65)...crazy small odds.

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alwaysdoit
Assuming each outcome is equally likely, which it isn't.

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Bahamut
Of course, but if you read what the site is doing, it is treating it as if it
is in randomly picking a unique bracket.

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gph
No, I think it clearly states a smart statistical analysis will be used when
generating brackets. Even references some Duke professor.

I don't know what statistical method they plan on using, but Nate
Silver/FiveThirtyEight already put out percentages for the whole bracket based
on statistics/matchups[1]. It wouldn't be too hard to hand out brackets
generated using the highest percentage brackets from something like that.

I still don't think it will work. Even if a million people took part it would
still be like a 1:1000 shot at best. And assuming they did distribute it
evenly (don't think this is really possible given taxes and everything) at a
million people that's only $1000 per person.

[1][http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-
predic...](http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predictions/)

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thrush
I'm not typically a gambling man, but 1:1000 for $1000 is pretty good odds if
you ask me, particularly considering there is no buy in (I think).

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gph
Well you're giving your details to Quicken Loans and presumably yahoo. That
includes name, address, DOB. While those details don't have a monetary value
to you, they certainly have value to the companies you're giving them to.

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brador
What's the most tax efficient way to get that prize money if you win? How much
could you actually keep?

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colinbartlett
Detailed analysis of the tax implications of winning $1 Billion:

[http://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2014/01/21/warr...](http://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2014/01/21/warren-
buffett-offers-1-billion-for-perfect-march-madness-bracket/)

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mycroft-holmes
Uncle Sam will take any chance they can to steal money from people. That's _a
lot_.

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jonknee
Ah yes, the poor plight lottery winners. With the reduced incentive of taxes
I'm sure it would be impossible to find someone willing to take the risk of
winning so much money...

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CanSpice
Blast. It's only available for people living in the United States (or overseas
military bases).

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kcbanner
"We're sorry, but something went wrong."

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dameyawn
All sign ups were recorded, and this error has now been fixed! Sorry about
that.

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aaronmarks
Is it just me or was this removed from the homepage?

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cjcenizal
Seems like it was, not sure why though.

