
The US could end up running on gasoline forever - imartin2k
https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-cars-versus-gas-cars-america-compared-china-europe-2019-11
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jmpman
At $100/kWh, a 200kwh battery pack is just $20k. I expect the motor is
approximately $5k. An F150 runs anywhere from $28k-$70k. Which means that the
base F150 without gas engine is around $23k. Add in the electric, and you’re
up to $48k - still well in the middle of the F150 price range. The electric
version would have incredible torque and reasonable range.

Even if the gas version gets 20mpg @ $3/gal, over 200k miles, you’re spending
$30k on gas. Electric is likely 1/3 the cost, saving $20k over the lifetime.
This puts the electric truck on par with the lowest end F150 for TCO.

We are at the inflection point for battery prices driving TCO wins across
major new sectors. The conversion rate to EV will accelerate.

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quaquaqua1
A brand new combustion engine can be bought from JEGS or Summit Racing for
less than $4,000 USD.

A used engine can be had for less than $1,000, and it often comes attached to
a car if you are not interested in adding it to a different vehicle.

Electric cars are really cool, but I don't think hundreds of millions of
Americans will be running out to switch until maybe 11 years from now, which
is how long it took the USA to go from "nobody has a smart phone" to "everyone
has a smart phone".

~~~
vinceguidry
Smart phones had to wait for better wireless connection tech, electric
vehicles have to similarly wait for infrastructure improvements. Once that
happens, it’ll be just as overnight as it felt with phones.

~~~
quaquaqua1
That's a good point- the revolution could have happened in 1980 if the tech
was there.

I think it still is much longer away before mass adoption happens

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perfunctory
If US attempts to run on gasoline forever it will simply not survive.

When the economy is fully electrified, at scale, the operational cost of
energy becomes practically zero (no extraction, refinement, delivery, spill
cleanup). Economies that run on fossil fuels will simply become too expensive
and hence uncompetitive. If US doesn't shake off the grip of the fossil
industry, it's not too hard to imagine the sunset of the American empire.

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hn_throwaway_99
> When the economy is fully electrified, at scale, the operational cost of
> energy becomes practically zero (no extraction, refinement, delivery, spill
> cleanup).

This doesn't make any sense. How do you suppose that electricity is to be
generated?

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avmich
> How do you suppose that electricity is to be generated?

Without use of oil, which would make that electricity cheaper. Wind, solar,
hydro, nuclear, geothermal...

~~~
hn_throwaway_99
Not sure why you think those sources have anywhere near "an operational cost
close to zero", given that most of them are currently far more expensive than
fossil fuels. Even in cases where some of them beat fossil fuels, that doesn't
mean that cost benefit will scale, and you also have the significant, unsolved
problem of energy storage required with some of those sources.

~~~
avmich
What are the operational costs of wind and solar sources?

I wouldn't say energy storage problem is "significant" in this context, though
for different people, who see this subject differently, glass can be half-full
or half-empty. Yes, there is a problem but not forbidding extension of
deployment now.

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mempko
> That could be a bummer. But I might just have to live with it.

We have no choice but to move away from gasoline. Global warming is set to
make this planet uninhabitable. The world is estimated to be on a course to
3-4C by 2100 which can only support $1 billion people (and note temperature
doesn't stop increasing at 2100).

Sorry, we won't be running on gasoline forever, one way or another.

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greedo
Please. Hyperbole that we'll be over capacity by 7 billion people due to
climate change is irresponsible and deflects from changes that are actually
achievable. Fear-mongering will do more damage to solving the problem then
being rational.

~~~
mempko
At least the "Hyperbole" as you put it is based on scientific studies about
the carrying capacity of the earth. It appears to me a perfectly rational
position. In fact isn't it irrational to ignore these kinds of studies?

[http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/13/scientist-
warmi...](http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/13/scientist-warming-
could-cut-population-to-1-billion/)

Seems it is the economists who are the optimists, and we know how well
economists are at forcasting anything...

[https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/cwire/2009/03/13...](https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/cwire/2009/03/13/13climatewire-
scientists-see-more-grim-effects-of-climate--10121.html)

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fred_is_fred
What I've seen in my neighborhood (Colorado) is the 1 gas, 1 EV car household.
EV for grocery store and work commuting, gas car for camping, skiing, and
longer trips. If the US started moving this route it would be a big deal, even
if it's not 100% electric.

~~~
F_J_H
Exactly what we did, and it's been great. And, in my city, an added (not
insignificant) benefit is you can use the HOV lanes with an EV, which saves my
wife around 20 to 30 minutes per day on her commute.

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HocusLocus
This is yet another discussion about nuclear energy to power the grid... with
everyone 'delicately' and dubiously avoiding discussing nuclear energy to
power the grid. Such things used to have popcorn value but now they are just
annoying.

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jdhn
There's a lot of handwringing over how long gas will stay relevant, but I
really believe that adoption of electric vehicles is going to follow a S
curve. I know that when I look for my next car in 2 to 3 years, I'm definitely
taking electric vehicles into account, especially if the charging times
continue to decrease and the range continues to increase.

~~~
js2
My wife loves her Volt. It’s at 50k miles now. Here’s what a typical month
looks like:

Fuel Economy: 250+ mpg

Electric Consumption: 31 kW-hr/100 miles

Electric Miles: 1,538

Gas Miles: 244

Total Miles: 1,781 mi

Percentage on Electric: 86 %

Estimated Gallons of Fuel Saved: 71 gal

Most around town driving is 100% electric but she can also take out of town
road trips without worrying about finding a charger.

There’s a lot more Teslas around here (Raleigh NC) than there used to be but I
still wonder how viable they are for road trips.

One of the things that motivated the Volt purchase is the susceptibility of
this area’s gasoline supply which relies on a single pipeline that had
multiple outages a few years ago[1]. On the other side, I know CA Tesla owners
were not having fun during the PG&E blackouts. (Then again, without
electricity, gas station pumps don’t work either.)

Anyway, the flexibility of dual energy choices has been great for us. I’m sad
GM canceled the vehicle and that it and other similar range plug-in hybrids
aren’t more popular.

1\. E.g. [https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/hurricane-
harvey/critical-...](https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/hurricane-
harvey/critical-east-coast-fuel-pipeline-reopen-weekend-company-says-n797956)

~~~
toomuchtodo
I have driven my Model S about 20k miles in the last year back and forth
across the US. No issues, charging only from Superchargers and at home. Happy
to share my lifetime drive map from TeslaFi privately if desired, total
electrical costs are under $500 for those 20k miles (and I drive "spirited").

I would never purchase an internal combustion vehicle again, and everyone I
have loaned my S to had ended up buying a Tesla of some sort (S, X, 3). n=1

[https://supercharge.info/map](https://supercharge.info/map)

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Daishiman
How long was your average charge time on the Superchargers?

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toomuchtodo
15-20 minutes.

