
What If US Collapses? - kirubakaran
http://madconomist.com/what-if-us-collapses-soviet-collapse-lessons-every-american-needs-to-know
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jsn
well, i was born in ussr and i've seen it collapsing. i have to say that the
author is full of it. the main sources of troubles in collapsing ussr were, in
no particular order:

* dying agriculture sector and massive dependence on imported food (doesn't appear to be a problem in u.s.),

* non-existent property structure: nobody owns anything, so nobody has the incentive to maintain things or use things to turn profit, etc (doesn't appear to be a huge problem in u.s.)

* no preexisting contracts, markets, distribution channels, etc; almost no preexisting social network of business relationships, since all operations were run by the state (not a problem in u.s.)

* the main issue: it was 3rd or 4th generation of people raised in the world where "business", "profit", "property", etc were all synonyms for "crime". "doing something people want/need" was unthinkable. the only people who dared to think about it were criminals [and that's how we got the country we have now] (and no, i can't imagine that being a problem in u.s.)

so there. if [quite an "if", huh] _your_ empire goes down, i think you'll be
okay :) [and some redneck farmers might not even notice much].

~~~
time_management
_dying agriculture sector and massive dependence on imported food (doesn't
appear to be a problem in u.s.)_

Only 1% of our population knows anything about how to farm, and if you
substitute "oil" in for "food", you have the American problem. Our food
production and transportation are highly dependent upon oil, and we don't have
enough domestic oil to sustain the system in place.

 _non-existent property structure: nobody owns anything, so nobody has the
incentive to maintain things or use things to turn profit, etc (doesn't appear
to be a huge problem in u.s.)_

I agree that we don't have this problem in the US. Our housing infrastructure
is decaying because of poor, unsustainable design (sprawl) and because people
lack the time and money to maintain it, not because they lack incentive.

 _no preexisting contracts, markets, distribution channels, etc; almost no
preexisting social network of business relationships, since all operations
were run by the state (not a problem in u.s.)_

The "preexisting social network" of people who actually run American society
is small, exclusive, and unambiguously an enemy. These people won't be
relevant in an economic collapse, but I can't see them doing anything to help
out average people. They'll fly off in their private jets. As for the
suburbanized hoipolloi, they're already culturally and emotionally alienated,
and they'll be physically dispersed once gas is expensive/unreliable.

 _the main issue: it was 3rd or 4th generation of people raised in the world
where "business", "profit", "property", etc were all synonyms for "crime".
"doing something people want/need" was unthinkable. the only people who dared
to think about it were criminals [and that's how we got the country we have
now] (and no, i can't imagine that being a problem in u.s.)_

This is one crucial difference, and the US will be served well by the
difference in attitude. Although the corporate elite are rightly viewed as a
parasitic, criminal class, people harbor positive views of small business, and
are largely comfortable with markets, capitalism, and profit. This might
enable us to recover well.

------
pedalpete
This doesn't seem so much to be 'What if the US Collapses' as 'How the US is
like the USSR and why that will lead to a similar collapse'.

However, the USSR was not a free-market system, and there was very little
incentive it seemed for citizens of the USSR to band together and solve
problems.

Are there similarities between the US and pre-collapse USSR, sure. But the
human mind is great at finding similarities and patterns. Postulating that the
US will collapse JUST as the USSR did is a stretch.

The US may fall from it's height of power relative to other nations of the
world, but a full collapse in the near term I think is unlikely.

Of course, every empire falls at some point, and I suspect we have seen the
height of American power, but the American way of life is far from over.

By the way, I'm Canadian!

~~~
ph0rque
> However, the USSR was not a free-market system, and there was very little
> incentive it seemed for citizens of the USSR to band together and solve
> problems.

I don't think the freedom of the market matters much when you're trying to
survive: you will want to solve this particular problem as soon as possible.

That said, I think the author underestimates the American people and their
resourcefulness.

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noonespecial
_The things they fight over in public are generally symbolic little tokens of
social policy, chosen for ease of public posturing. The Communist party
offered just one bitter pill. The two Capitalist parties offer a choice of two
placebos. The latest innovation is the photo finish election, where each party
buys 50% of the vote, and the result is pulled out of statistical noise, like
a rabbit out of a hat._

Ok, I'm pretty sure this was a joke/satire/etc but I really liked this bit.
Reminds me of Douglas Adams and the lizards...

~~~
gojomo
That passage could be read as a whimsical description of 'median voter
theory':

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median_voter_theory>

------
hendler
Starting with slide 9, the US is compared on "specifics". It points to our
energy and transportation infrastructure leading to a bigger crisis for the
US.

I think the latter slides are interesting, and energy/transportation is by far
our biggest vulnerability, but not necessarily accurate, and even leaning
towards trying to scare. My opinion was reinforced by slide 19:

" the Soviet union was much better prepared for economic collapse than the US
is". I wasn't there, but I guess because it didn't have as far to fall. The US
may have to get used to less - but I believe that a free society eventually
leads education and change. Because we are a democracy, we have no one to
blame but ourselves.

~~~
jsn
the main shock for an average soviet citizen quickly becoming a russian
citizen probably wasn't the abrupt drop in the quality of life [though there
sure was quite a drop]. it was more about how to live when nobody tells you
what to do every minute and when you're on your own.

people who came up with a dead simple idea to 1) borrow some cash, 2) visit
europe, buy some Snickers (tm) [i kid you not, it really was Snickers for some
reason], 3) sell it in russia from a makeshift tent -- those people were
turning hundreds percents of profit, doubling their operations weekly and
making huge fortunes [by local standards anyway] in months.

and, well, one in a thousand had the mindset to pull that off. others were
living in poverty in spite of the whole world of available opportunities.

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DenisM
I got to slide 27 before concluding this to be an elaborate piece of satire.

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Angostura
I think one problem with this analysis is the assumption that all empires
collapse in the same way.

It's quite possible that any U.S collapse will be more akin to that of the
U.K. A gradual decline and disengagement from foreign territories.

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kajecounterhack
I understand that this is satire but lets get something straight: a "jubilee"
wouldn't work because debt "creates" money and to erase it all would vaporize
tons of actual money!

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safetytrick
I believe that was the worst article I have seen on ycombinator both full of
crap and boring.

