
Alan Kay: With the Tablet, Apple Will Rule the World - pchristensen
http://gigaom.com/2010/01/26/alan-kay-with-the-tablet-apple-will-rule-the-world/
======
Maciek416
With McGraw-Hill's CEO for all intents and purposes confirming this product to
be real and running iPhone OS, I'll be very surprised, and saddened, if a
shut-tight, app-store-limited device like this will lead to world domination.

Are tightly closed environments like this where we want personal computing to
go next?

Are only a small number of people going to own powerful computers with which
they can do anything they want, with the rest going through app stores and the
cloud? It sounded good to me before, but now that we may all be on the
receiving end, it seems disheartening.

~~~
hexley
I posted this in the other thread before, but I'm going to repost it here
because people still don't seem to understand why the iPhone's restrictions
are so important.

\---------------------

I don't see how it's anything other than a net positive, you gain in security
and ease of use for consumers. If you're more hacker minded like this audience
is, it's extremely trivial to jailbreak - the distinction being that it is
totally independent and not sanctioned by Apple whatsoever. This is an
important point.

After working in user support I can totally empathise with Apple's decision to
keep the platform closed via the App Store. The vast majority of the people
buying these phones (ie, normal users - not geeks) are the ones who
voluntarily install spyware on their PC's, click yes to every dialog box they
see and execute random email attachments without thinking twice. They don't
scrutinise certificate errors in their browser, use PGP, constantly have a
bash window or two hanging around - in fact I think a lot of the people who
have bought iPhones as fashion accessories would have trouble even changing
their wallpaper.

The iPhone undeniably has the biggest mindshare, and a very hefty marketshare
slice of any high-end mobile communications device yet, one notably skewed
toward people with large disposable incomes.

Remember, it's constantly connected to the internet, has a connection to the
phone network (and thus an unlimited tab conveniently linked to your credit
card), knows where you are and even in which direction you're facing. It knows
who you talk to, who your contacts are...etc. I could go on. The point is this
device and it's associated popularity is a fucking GOLDMINE for the kind of
people who write malware.

The App Store and it's uncompromising restriction is the _final solution_ to
keeping this cesspool of a software "ecosystem" off the platform.

Even if Apple provided an "Advanced" setting which gains you root access on
your device the malware writers would simply instruct the clueless user to
enable it, and I KNOW that 99.9% of people would do it without hesitation, for
the promise of nothing more than a cheap thrill. All the EULA-type warning
"this-is-a-bad-idea-and-we're-not-responsible" notifications in the world
won't stop them. It's based on the same psychology as that study where an
alarming majority of people would tell you their password for a chocolate bar.

Oooh, kittens!!! _cue screaming and convenient lawsuits targeting high-profile
Apple when their phone bill arrives with a $50,000 total_

Yeah, I think we can do without that sort of thing, and Apple certainly
doesn't need that kind of unrepairable damage done to their brand perception.

We put up with malware on Windows because like it or not it's the de-facto
standard, and consequently most people don't know any better. There is an
almost bewildering array of choice when it comes to mobile handsets, and
people are likely to go with the one that _doesn't_ have a reputation for
involuntarily emptying your bank account.

~~~
orangecat
_If you're more hacker minded like this audience is, it's extremely trivial to
jailbreak - the distinction being that it is totally independent and not
sanctioned by Apple whatsoever._

Not only "not sanctioned" by Apple, but actively opposed by them. They go out
of their way to stop jailbreakers and consider them criminals, and per the
DMCA they're probably right. It will be terrible for future innovation if the
only way to gain control over your own hardware is to become a felon.

 _The App Store and it's uncompromising restriction is the final solution to
keeping this cesspool of a software "ecosystem" off the platform._

Along with anything that remotely competes with Apple's business model. If
Microsoft had that level of control 20 years ago, we wouldn't have the web.

 _Even if Apple provided an "Advanced" setting which gains you root access on
your device the malware writers would simply instruct the clueless user to
enable it, and I KNOW that 99.9% of people would do it without hesitation_

That's a testable prediction, since Android offers exactly that setting. We'll
see if it becomes a cesspool of malware; I don't expect it to.

~~~
hexley
_Not only "not sanctioned" by Apple, but actively opposed by them. They go out
of their way to stop jailbreakers and consider them criminals, and per the
DMCA they're probably right. It will be terrible for future innovation if the
only way to gain control over your own hardware is to become a felon._

Of course they don't like people jailbreaking, they've worked very long and
hard on making a store with a fair and seamless DRM system - then barely a
week after it's jailbroken somebody has gone and made an almost one-step
process for cracking, distributing and downloading pirated applications. DRM
relies on a closed system by it's very nature - it's understandable they like
to discourage against subjugating their entire business model.

HOWEVER: they have never (as of my knowlege) put in additional effort to
prevent jailbreaking. The online media a few years ago was buzzing with
warnings about updates bricking jailbroken iPhones - like if done out of some
sort of malice when it turns out the problem was AnySIM completely trashing
some areas of the baseband, rendering it unusable when updated next.

So let's see, Apple getting a ton of bad press misdirected at them (as usual)
because of the clumsy mistakes of some people who didn't really test their
baseband modifying software before releasing it to the public.

Oh, and a more recent example. The installer for OpenSSH in Cydia didn't
bother to prompt a change for the default root password on the iPhone (alpine)
- suddenly there's a "virus" spreading between unsecured jailbroken iPhones
because of clueless idiots once again thinking they know what they're doing
when they clearly don't. The press? "OMG ITS TEH IPHONE VIRUSSSSS RUN FOR THE
HILLS!!" Do you think they bothered to mention that you had to a) Jailbreak
your phone, b) Install OpenSSH and c) Neglect to change the default password?
Of course not, who cares insignificant details like that when you can have a
headline with the words "iPhone" and "virus" both in it.

Gee, I wonder why Apple don't like jailbreaking guys?

Meanwhile, it would be naîve to think that Apple doesn't have plenty of
jailbroken iPhones they use internally for various things. I have no doubt
they are keeping a very close eye on the progress of the JB scene.

 _Along with anything that remotely competes with Apple's business model. If
Microsoft had that level of control 20 years ago, we wouldn't have the web._

We don't know the exact reason for many Apple's rejections, but I disagree
with this sentiment in general - there are hundreds of examples of approved
apps which directly with Apple's own offerings and if you're referring to the
GV rejection in particular that's even more puzzling as it doesn't compete
with Apple at all (unless they're secretly planning on becoming a telco?)
Examples of approved apps which might enroach on Apple's territory are various
Safari replacements (iCab etc), Map applications, and even Spotify; clearly
stepping on the toes of iTunes store. The problem is the inconsistency, which
to me points more toward individual agent whims or moods rather than policy. I
agree this is unacceptable but they have promised to make it better. They have
stated publicly that they approve > 99% of apps, so as usual it's a vocal
minority.

 _That's a testable prediction, since Android offers exactly that setting.
We'll see if it becomes a cesspool of malware; I don't expect it to._

There has already been a bank account phishing app which was undiscovered for
weeks on the Android Marketplace. I wonder why whoever coded that didn't
target the iPhone instead and get 100x the opportunity?

Oh that's right, they couldn't. The system works.

------
shalmanese
Real Story: Some off hand comment made over 2 years ago is dredged up to
provide a tantalizing headline which is put in place solely to drive traffic.

~~~
kqr2
Well, he also claims to have spoken to Kay late last year:

 _Kay still wasn’t sure whether Apple would actually come out with a tablet
when I talked to him late last year, noting that such a device could
theoretically compete with the company’s iPhone business. But, he added: “I
bet a thousand dollars that they had a five-by-eight-inch version for the last
couple years in house.”_

~~~
blasdel
The original series of prototypes was called the SafariPad, and one of the
form-factors was similarly Newton-sized. Apparently only good for surfing the
web on the toilet.

~~~
michaelcampbell
You say that like it's bad. =)

------
lurkinggrue
At this point I would not be surprised with the headline "Apple tablet to poop
rainbows and give you a pony."

~~~
icefox
Done <http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1079784>

------
10ren
5x8? add a keyboard, and it's very close to the eeePC's dimensions.
Differences:

\- much lighter (because ARM uses less power, therefore lighter batteries for
same battery life; lighter construction in general; and lighter because no
keyboard.

\- connectivity (3G). This really is an internet appliance.

BUT I really don't think it can work without a keyboard (please make me famous
by quoting me if I'm wrong!) Possibly, a large touch-screen keyboard would be
workable _enough_ to be useful, even without tactile feedback; but I really
think it would be mainly a gimmick.

BTW: I typed on a video-hire kiosk's touchscreen today, and although slow, it
was much less frustrating than I expected.

~~~
bitwize
Spend much time on the go with a netbook and you will find out how much more
essential a (multi) touch screen is than a keyboard for something that's
primarily intended as a _browsing_ device (as opposed to a tiny, tiny computer
you can do your Excel spreadsheets on).

------
dmn
I know that the masses are going to fall in love with the upcoming Apple
Tablet, but I still don't understand why its getting so much hype =/

Hopefully to stand up to the buzz, it is more than just a souped up iPod
Touch.

Am I one of the few to think that it might not be "all that"?

------
jodrellblank
This taught me what it would take to get me to click on another gigaom.com
link - an implication of an interview with Alan Kay.

It's right back on my "do not click" mental list, with an extra strong
negative weighting. An article about how Alan Kay's comment from several years
ago re: the iPhone suggests he might like the alledged new tablet, plus a quip
from an interview a year ago does not a worthwhile post make.

The only good thing I can say about not having a universal micropayment system
is that I'm _glad_ it cost them hosting and bandwidth fees to handle my page
load. I hope it was disproportionately expensive.

------
moron4hire
5"x8" doesn't fit in my pocket. I have a paper notebook here on my desk that
is 5"x8". I never use it. I have a moleskine that goes with me everywhere.
It's harder to write in the moleskine than the larger notebook, but then I
don't ever have the larger notebook with me, so it doesn't matter.

If you're making me give up ergonomic input by giving up the desktop, I need
to gain portability. That's why netbooks sucked so hard, input sucked and they
weren't more portable than my laptop. The on screen and slideout keyboards on
the iPhone and Droid are awful, but at least the devices fit in your pocket.

And can we please get over the techy self importance? The iPhone is pretty
popular -- amongst geeks and rich people. Most people who have cellphones in
general still have the freebie brick or folder that came with their plan. Just
because Apple has done something to make a big splash in our pond called the
tech industry doesn't mean our pond is large enough to matter to The World.

According to this site (<http://www.wirefly.org/news/cell-phone-facts.php>),
72% of the US population owns cell phones. I don't know exactly what they mean
by that, but if that's 72% of the approximate 300 million population of the
US, then that's 216 million cellphone users in the country. According to
Wikipedia, Apple has sold 42 million iPhone units
(<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPhone>). That's roughly 20% if you aren't
accounting for people who have paid for upgrades to the 3G and 3GS models.
This page indicates that 16% of the market owns PDAs in general, lumping the
iPhone into the PDA category
([http://ticketsdotcom.blogspot.com/2009/09/mobile-trends-
amer...](http://ticketsdotcom.blogspot.com/2009/09/mobile-trends-americans-
cell-phone.html)). Significant for sure, but not "taking over the world". Why
should we expect a device of _less_ utility than a cellphone to do better?

~~~
dandelany
Wait, so you want a tablet that is smaller than 5x8", smaller than a netbook,
and that fits in your pocket? You know you can buy those already from Apple,
right?

~~~
moron4hire
That's my point entirely. Predictions that an "<insert-any-company> tablet is
going to take over the world" are woefully self-interested and fail to
consider what "the world" actually means. I'm sure from a technology
standpoint, it will be a neat device, but it's only going to matter to
technophiles, and even then, only for novelty.

