
Robert Shiller says Bitcoin is the best example right now of a bubble - elsewhen
https://qz.com/1067557/robert-shiller-wrote-the-book-on-bubbles-he-says-the-best-example-right-now-is-bitcoin/
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ringaroundthetx
As he is the author of Irrational Exuberance, and craftily deconstructs how
rational people bid assets to "inexplicable heights", you should begin to
notice in this interview that his definition of bubble is quite broad. "Idea
epidemics".

By his definition, capitalism itself would be an idea epidemic, and that
doesn't mean that it is going away, and that same applies to any of his
bubbles. The only intention of pointing this out is that you are left at
square one for finding your own validation or analysis in asset pricing, and
cant defer to this authority for a conclusion in the present.

Him calling something a bubble doesn't mean the asset is mispriced, is
overpriced for all time, incorrectly priced, or that it will revert to a lower
price.

He would be an excellent commodities trader, if he stopped focusing on real
estate and stock market indexes. Ebbs and flows in prices are not AT ALL
controversial in the commodities market, expected even, and equally why they
never caught on for retirement planning, because they can't fit into the "idea
epidemic" that they go up forever.

It isn't controversial that an "idea epidemic" that makes bitcoin exciting can
come to a lull and lower demand. Just trade it.

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billions
Robert Shiller's lack of familiarity with ICOs, as highlighted in this
article, disqualifies his position on Bitcoin. "The conversation was edited
and condensed for clarity." Shiller was unprepared to discuss Bitcoin.

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subru
Wouldn't it be better to ask if his position is any different, now that he has
had time to research the topic? It would be helpful if you could provide
material info to Mr. Schiller that he does not have, beyond the ICO
revelation, so he can re-assess. You clearly have important info that he could
use.

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billions
ICO's are now a core application to the cryptocurrency ecosystem and have
thereby driven growth to Bitcoin. Let us know if there is anything else I've
missed. Your communication techniques are exemplary.

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honestlyreally
He said it was a bubble at $800 too.

Is this the economist equivalent of the martingale strategy?

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Double_a_92
So it's not a bubble until it pops?

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mv4
Nobody can predict where the price of Bitcoin will go. However:

1\. it's a limited resource

2\. it lets people do things no other financial vehicles can

3\. highly influential people behind crypto haven't had their fun yet

So - no, I don't think this is a bubble.

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clishem
1\. so are all other cryptocurrencies

2\. see 1

3\. not sure what you mean by this

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danielharrison
To 99% of the population, Bitcoin is the only crypto currency. They don't care
about the other 500 alts, they don't understand them. If/when it goes
mainstream, BTC will be the USD of crypto.

No matter what happens, a win for any crypto alt is a win for Bitcoin.

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subru
No, another cryptocurrency (the word crypto is already used to mean something
else) can gain steam while the price of BTC goes sideways or down, and
eventually win. Just saying the statement "no matter what happens" is false.

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valuearb
Can is not the same as Will. 500M people could download the Lyft app tomorrow
and stop using Uber, but they won't. I can't predict the future for BTC, no
one can, but I'm skeptical of it being supplanted. It's got a huge lead in
public awareness, and the public doesn't understand crypto currencies and
isn't looking for new ones.

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whipoodle
We like to make fun of "this time it's different" around here, but I think
also a lot of people here think it really is different this time with
cryptocurrencies.

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icebraining
Different from what?

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valuearb
"It kind of fits in with the angst of this time in history"

If that's his best explanation of the BTC bubble, I find it lacking. He didn't
really have any argument for why it's a bubble.

It's a real question that deserves real analysis. BTC offers real value, but
of a kind that's really hard to measure.

1) The ability to keep your money safe (safer?) from your local (possibly
corrupt) governments. 2) By one important measure, it's the safest crypto-
currency because it's so widely used and accepted. It offers the largest
markets so you can have confidence that you'll be able to sell your BTC, even
if you have a lot of BTC.

But what are those things worth? What real value does BTC derive from them. Is
it worth $2,000? $4,000? or $200? if it's real value is $4,000 or $2,000, it's
absolutely not a bubble any more than the USD is in a bubble because it's used
for trillions of dollars of daily transactions.

BTC offers value many in the world want and need. What that value is actually
worth is lost in circular arguments between the bubblists and BTC pumpers.

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icebraining
_It wasn’t that long ago that we held rich people in contempt._

Funny, this goes against everything I've read on the topic about the US. For
example, just this week I read Cleese's _So, Anyway_ , where he mentioned how
when he lived in the US, in the early 60s, he noted how money made you
respectable, and regardless of how you made it, whereas in Britain it was
taboo to talk about making money.

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noddy1
daily reminder:

The Nobel prize for economics is not a real nobel prize

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icebraining
You're right that it's not a prize created by Alfred Nobel, but the selection
panel is the same.

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popopobobobo
Cynical shit-tier software developer who makes good money: Human civilization
is the best example of a bubble

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benlorenzetti
The opposite conclusion, using the same reasoning upon a different set of
beliefs, is the federal reserve and federal government are complicit bubbles

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benlorenzetti
Commenting on my own post...sad. Just smarting about being downvoted to the
bottom while the top comment makes the same point. I guess I need to be more
expositional.

