
Inside ISIS: Quietly preparing for the loss of the ‘caliphate’ - pmcpinto
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/inside-isis-quietly-preparing-for-the-loss-of-the-caliphate/2016/07/12/9a1a8a02-454b-11e6-8856-f26de2537a9d_story.html
======
Animats
So they're preparing to pivot from their unsuccessful venture in governing to
their core competence in terrorism.

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teh_klev
No paywall: [http://archive.is/t4H4T](http://archive.is/t4H4T)

~~~
labrador
Thank you. I'm an older programmer with health issues living below the poverty
line so there's not way I can afford the subscription. I hope Jeff Bezos
does't mind if I take a peek for free.

~~~
JBReefer
:/

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feklar
Interactive map [http://isis.liveuamap.com/](http://isis.liveuamap.com/)

Latest map of Shirqat (near Mosul) where there is heavy fighting right now
[https://i.imgur.com/dxb7BHM.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/dxb7BHM.jpg) Still
months of fighting at least until ISIS loses their Iraq 'caliphate' look at
all those towns/cities they still control like Hawijah.

~~~
ethanbond
Here's an interactive map that lets you see the progress of the fight over
time: [https://www.cartercenter.org/syria-conflict-
map/](https://www.cartercenter.org/syria-conflict-map/)

ISIS' doom seems as imminent as the coming quagmire between the "victorious"
factions.

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misiti3780
Im not that surprised. I'm sure the fact that ISIS commanders are boiling
their own soldiers in acid[1] because they refuse to fight is not helping
moral.

[1] [http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3598477/ISIS-
execute...](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3598477/ISIS-
execute-25-people-lowering-NITRIC-ACID-Iraqi-spies-tied-rope-dropped-vat-
public-warning-others.html)

~~~
AJ007
The double edged sword of ISIS expansion has been the destruction of capital
through looting. In this situation an organization has to keep expanding or
they will collapse.

From a strategic perspective a weak ISIS makes other places, such as Europe,
more dangerous. Another alternative may see a much more destabilized Middle
East if continued weak oil unravels the Saudi welfare state. One point of view
is that the multi-decade US warmongering (Bush, Obama, Clinton) could result
in a region where Israel is surrounded by failed nation states - the worst
case scenario for all parties. When considered, the rebalance in favor of Iran
may have been viewed as a pro-Israel move.

~~~
norea-armozel
If only we can get Iran and Israel to play ball because from everything I've
read most of the trouble is between Saudi Arabia and Iran trying to get a
friendly govt in Iraq.

~~~
AJ007
From a covert historical standpoint there has been cooperation between Israel
and Iran, e.g. Marc Rich. I'm not sure what is currently occurring and likely
few public parties know.

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dicroce
I believe I read somewhere that if the caliphate falls it means that they
never truly had the mandate of heaven. How could their followers justify
continued obedience?

~~~
jeffdavis
I don't think that's the way radical groups like this work. Promises are
edited from the record, "facts" go unchecked, and followers are already so
emotionly invested they are incapable of changing their minds any more.

~~~
tenpies
Scary how if you replace "radical groups" with "US elections", most of the
statement still stands.

~~~
geodel
I read Animal Farm and see world was always same. It is just (social?) media
amplification that makes certain cause just or unjust.

------
grandalf
Instead of presenting ISIS as a grassroots political movement, it is presented
as a military group led by a small number of ideologues.

~~~
imglorp
Those ideologues are also insecure in their own beliefs:

> A series of communiques issued in the Islamic State’s Syrian enclave last
> month closed down Internet cafes in one province and ordered the destruction
> of TVs and satellite dishes in another. The orders, billed as an effort to
> eliminate a tool for “disseminating infidel beliefs,” effectively cut off
> access to news from the outside world.

Tyrants everywhere know their position will not withstand debate.

This is something the tech community can help with: provide uncensorable,
unblockable, and anonymous comm channels to keep the world talking.

~~~
rayiner
Often on HN, you read the argument on here that "polls only show people
support X because the mainstream media brainwashes them to believe it." I
don't think that's true, but if it is, isn't it rational to want to keep your
people from being exposed to that content?

~~~
jrs235
>isn't it rational to want to keep your people from being exposed to that
content?

Absolutely. That's why control of the media is crucial to those that have an
agenda and power/control complex. Look at NK, Russia, ISIS.

~~~
vkou
All governments have an agenda, and a power complex. See: FBI involvement in
domestic politics, the NSA, etc.

------
WhitneyLand
Highly recommend Fareed Zakaria's "Why they hate us", which explores the
motives and evolution of ISIS:

[http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/08/opinions/why-they-hate-us-
zaka...](http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/08/opinions/why-they-hate-us-zakaria/)

~~~
dogma1138
TBH the article is pretty shallow and has quite a few factual inaccuracies
especially around the treatment of Jews and Christians in the Ottoman empire
which wasn't particularly good during any period past the rule of Mehmed the
2nd, under Murat IV the treatment of Jews specifically became quite poor,
they've already lost their place at the court for 150+ years, but under Murat
they were pretty much exiled to the fringes of the Ottoman Empire.

During the 18th and 19th century there were no shortage of pogroms against
Jews in Ottoman Empire the the middle east at large, they intensified in the
levant following the conquests of Muhammad Ali (pretty much every city that
was "liberated" by his forces had a pogrom after party especially Safed and
Hebron).

The conclusion that it's all about that it's all about geopolitics and
economics is also pretty much a "no-brainer", yes it's a major part of it, but
it's not the only one there are plenty of countries around the world which
have it as bad or worse than the average person living in the middle east and
while there is quite a bit of violence in many of those parts it tends to take
quite a different shape, form, and intensity.

Boiling everything to economics simply doesn't explains everything (or nothing
depending on how you look at it). Economics do not explain Osama Bin Laden
which was born into one of the richest families on the planet, economics do
not explain why 2nd and 3rd generations Muslims and converts from Europe drop
from their degree programmes and join ISIS, and economics do not explain Syria
which while had a household and average income considerably lower than
anything one would expect in the west was still better off than India,
Pakistan, Peru and was comparable (or higher) than countries like Moldova and
Macedonia which are both EU accession candidates.

The fight is not as much of a fight against Islam as a religion, but as it is
against Islam as a political ideology so what we need is not as much of a
reform as an almost complete decoupling and restructuring of the society and
the religion itself, and that unfortunately is a task that will require a
considerable amount of time and bloodshed to accomplish.

EDIT:Just to make clear this isn't a poke at Fareed himself, while some of his
editorials (especially outside of CNN) aren't that bad, the article in
question is. It is the essence of the usual shallow article one can expect
from CNN these days, it's the last news outlet that still does its best to try
and not "offend" anyone but it does mean it employees fairness for fairness
sake which usually means you get a very shallow and watered down content
without any actual opinions that while it would be upto you to agree or
disagree with would at least make you think.

~~~
gkya
" During the 18th and 19th century there were no shortage of pogroms against
Jews in Ottoman Empire the the middle east at large, they intensified in the
levant following the conquests of Muhammad Ali (pretty much every city that
was "liberated" by his forces had a pogrom after party especially Safed and
Hebron). "

Mind that such pogroms was by levantine and peninsular arab locals, not by the
court. Ottoman jews weren't first class citizens, but not second class either.
For centuries they were the biggest actors in trade in the empire, until the
_varlık vergisi_ of the turkish republic. Even in the worst of imperial times
they're better of than european jews who were rogued for jewry.

" The fight is not as much of a fight against Islam as a religion, but as it
is against Islam as a political ideology so what we need is not as much of a
reform as an almost complete decoupling and restructuring of the society and
the religion itself, and that unfortunately is a task that will require a
considerable amount of time and bloodshed to accomplish. "

Nobody has a right to fight against anything but extremist terror.
Christianity as a political ideology is present everywhere in Europe, in some
countries the ruling party is called "christian democrats". Islamic rule is a
right of a people that demand it, and as long as they aren't bothering anyone
else, nobody but they have a say. And in Turkey, where I am, islam penetrates
the laic state just like christianity does in christian-majority countries.
That's what religion does, and is for.

Today's islamic extremism is a direct result of european expansionism in the
territory that actively continued untill WWII. The national state model was
imposed on a territory that's under imperial control for millennia, and the
states did not represent the populations. Most of these states were and some
still are dictatorships or monarchies, and this adds to it as well. Only
Turkey was well off as here we have a sound --although wrong-- turkish
national ideidentity

P.s. my intention was to counter your points, not to defend the article.

~~~
dogma1138
It really depends on how you define "2nd class citizen". During the 13-15
century the Jews in the Ottoman empire enjoyed quite a bit of freedom, since
then it went downhill from silly things like Jews were forbidden to wear silk
cloths, to them being forbidden to own land in certain places, to excessive
taxation, it really wasn't all peachy.

And while I don't want to get into an argument about the role religion does or
should play in a democracy, but I'll just say that I think Kemal Ataturk had
the right idea. I also completely disagree with you about the source of
Islamic Extremism and the cause of it, it's really not a clear cut case as you
make it.

It's also laughable to claim that only Turkey has a national identity, while
it's true for some parts of the middle east (at large) claiming that Iran or
Egypt for example do not have a national identity is absurd, and like it or
not over the past nearly 100 years quite a few of them formed. You are looking
at the middle east as some unique case it is not, many of the nations of
Europe was as "young" as most of the middle eastern countries today when WW2
broke out. The German Empire was only founded in 1871. Turkey came out OK
because it's mostly came out whole from WW1, and Kamel Ataturk built it into a
modern nation, for the longest time it was kept in check by its army and by
one of the only functional supreme court's in the region (well at least until
recently, some of the things Erdogan did kinda put it now at odds), it also
was lucky enough to join NATO which while being "western/european
expansionism" really helped to stabilize it.

~~~
gkya
" It's also laughable to claim that only Turkey has a national identity, ... "

I meant among the muslim majority countries that spun off after the fall of
the empire. Iran has continuously been home to some local sovereign state
since 3200 bc.

Saying things are not clear cut is sort of a way to divide guilt and avoid it.
Nations didn't have time to naturally form in middle east. Almost all states
have been formed top to bottom, after WWI, whereas in europe some of the
current nations' quest to be a nation stretch at least to the 17th century.

Turkey has been established top to bottom and via forced, fascistic
westernisation and nationalistic unification, via assimilation and bloodshed,
and the people's quest for a real, honourable identity is what the ilk of
Erdoğan use to get votes today. I'd love to live in the state Atatürk wanted,
but what he did ultimately lead to what we have today, a mess.

" [Turkey] also was lucky enough to join NATO which while being
"western/european expansionism" really helped to stabilize it. "

Just as we cannot call a civilisation/nation cruel and savage for one mistake,
we cannot say that it's perfect and all innocent because it got one thing
right.

~~~
dogma1138
I'm not saying it's perfect and at all innocent, the "west" (as in modern
social democracies) is a far cry from being perfect or innocent, but it's a
sure of a lot better than anything else we got right now, or tried before.

For the most part it was rare for nations to form naturally, most of them
including those in Europe have evolved through quite a bit of mess, and the
middle east now is actually "older" than some European countries not that it
was pretty either but it was quite different than what the middle east going
through.

And if we are talking about religious terrorist then it's new even in the
scale of the middle east, if you look at early Palestinian/Arab terrorist
groups they were socialists/communist, the PLO PLFP AMAL and the likes in the
60-70's had nothing to do with religion.

The 1st real religious transformation were the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan they
were not only made religious but effectively converted because Islam in
Afghanistan at the time wasn't really a religion especially not outside the
cities, the literacy rates were extremely low and even now you won't find
minarets in the tribal regions.

Saudi Wahhabism was introduced into Afghanistan and from that things like AQ
grew which started the "global jihad" movements across the middle east, asia
and africa. From the Shia side you had the iranian revolution and after the
iran-iraq war has ended the IRGC went to work constructing various proxies
across the middle east primarily in the form of Hezbollah which now evolved
from a fairly small military organization in the early 80's to effectively a
nation state within Lebanon.

------
johnwheeler
I don't understand why they'd quote the word 'caliphate' in the title without
saying what it means in the intro.

~~~
cloudjacker
they just assume you haven't been living under a rock for the past two years

~~~
lostlogin
Or the millennia before that.

