
Is Windows Phone Dead? - insulanian
https://www.thurrott.com/mobile/windows-phone/4512/analysis-microsoft-is-scaling-back-on-windows-phone-dramatically
======
puranjay
_Windows_ is dying. Not just the phone. Sorry, there really is no two ways
about it. This little engine can chug itself over the hill for the next few
years, but it's all downhill from there.

I use a Windows desktop and I constantly find myself wondering: "what am I
paying MS for?". I personally like to use Word (even though it's too bloated
for my needs), but clients ask for work to be in Google Docs so they can share
and comment better.

My Windows experience is now largely limited to opening Chrome and doing
virtually everything in it. I might open up Notepad from time to time to make
a quick few notes. But that's mostly out of habit, not necessity.

Don't say "but I code on it". If you're a coder, you're already a specialized
use case.

The majority of the world simply doesn't need a bloated Windows OS to run
their browsers.

I'd be shorting Microsoft if I were an investor.

P.S.: I was also an early Windows Phone user because I loved the UI (still the
best in the business IMO). I dumped the phone after 1 year when it constantly
crashed on me (Nokia Lumia 720), had terrible apps, and didn't have half the
features of my friends' iPhones and Androids. It got a notification center
just about two years ago. And I still can't find apps on the marketplace that
aren't cheap clones.

~~~
jvehent
> Windows is dying.

No. It is not. Windows still sells millions of computers and everyone uses it,
from households to corporations. It's here to stay for a very long time.

~~~
shadowmint
'Dying' is not 'Dead'. Not yet... but desktop sales are in decline(1), and
windows on mobile is a failure.

If you want to call it 'Windows is in decline' instead of 'Windows is dying',
sure, we can call it that instead.

...but it's effectively the same thing. Don't bet on this platform; it's not
the future. Sure, it'll still _be around_ for the foreseeable future, but you
win when you bet on things that experience year-over-year growth, not year-
over-year decline.

You can call the growth-hackers nasty names if you want, but its undeniable
that there's a strong correlation between growth and success.

My bet? Microsoft won't fail. They'll find other things (services in the cloud
perhaps) to grow; but windows will consistently decline over time while it
fails to gain traction in the mobile space. /shrug

(1)
[http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3026217](http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3026217)
"Gartner Says Worldwide PC Shipments Declined 5.2 Percent in First Quarter of
2015"

~~~
Joeri
PC sales always decline in the run up to a new windows version.

~~~
maxerickson
Looking at numbers from IDC, they've declined the last several years.

Combined with erosion of pricing power, OS licensing isn't the glorious
business it used to be for Microsoft (it's still worth billions of dollars
though).

------
nness
I Google'd the phrase "Windows/Microsoft is Dead" (variations there of), since
I feel like that cry is made every time a new version of Windows is released
or layoffs announced, etc. One of PG's posts from 2007 came up. In it I think
is a quote as relevant now as it was nearly a decade ago:

> No one is even afraid of Microsoft anymore. They still make a lot of
> money—so does IBM, for that matter. But they're not dangerous.

~~~
gbersac
PG is for Paul Graham and the metionned post is
[http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html](http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html)

------
eibrahim
I made 5 apps early on and 6 months into it I realized there was no money in
it. The dev tools and environment is probably the best in mobile development.
It's unfortunate they can't break through.

~~~
beagle3
I think it is fortunate for the rest of the world that they can't break
through. The reason Microsoft is behaving reasonably lately is exactly
_because_ they've been having problems breaking through - in fact, staying
relevant - in the modern age.

------
heavymark
Was it ever alive? Like the Firefox phone, Amazon phone and sorts, they
survived on Corporate funding in general not on consumer interest. Other than
Google and Apple, it's simply too late for a new party to enter the game and
not only over night catch up to it's competitors but surpass them. Instead
they should focus on what they are good at and integrate as well as possible
with the winners such as Google and Apple. Microsoft finally understand that
and is now refocusing on productivity, firefox is the little engine that could
but sadly can't, amazon is trying anything to make itself profitable for
investors so I don't expect them to start refocusing anytime soon.

~~~
realusername
I would argue that's even harder for them than FirefoxOS because at least with
FirefoxOS, it's powered by web technologies and you can have most basic apps
without much work. Whereas with Windows Phone, you need actual developer time
to create an application in the new ecosystem. It's already hard to convince
people to port applications but it's even harder to convince them to redevelop
something new entirely.

~~~
nivla
Not exactly true. You can build Web Apps for existing Windows Phone devices
and Windows 10 mobile, you can import your iOS or Android apps directly to
Windows app store.

~~~
tobltobs
What you are talking about? Importing iOS and Android apps into the Windows
app store? There are some announcements, that this might be possible at some
point in the future. But at the moment nobody knows how much modifications
will be necessary for the apps to run on a windows phone.

------
dmarlow
WP has always had an uphill climb. That's not going to change anytime soon. MS
shouldn't give up on it either. I've been an early adopter and continue to use
it to this day. I'm not an apple fan and don't like google either. Mobile
needs MS to give an alternative in the market.

I'm primarily a MS stack dev (former MS). I hear these same old MS is dying
rants every few years. I don't see things going away, let alone changing
anytime soon. In a few years from now their market share (desktop) may be a
few percentage points lower and cynics will continue to rant. I enjoy working
on the Azure/Windows platform. Most issues I've had were self inflicted.

------
nextweek2
I feel sorry for those being laid off, I imagine that the next generation of
Microsoft phone hardware will not be a good as the Lumia range, which is the
phones main strength.

The Windows Phone OS problem is that they are playing catch up, it has come a
long way in a short time which has hurt App developers. But given another
couple of years of stability and I think it will be on par with iOS8 and
Android 5.1.

Microsoft is just lowering its overheads whilst it matures the platform. By
the time we get Windows 11, they'll ramp up for a big push to ISV's.

------
chrisbennet
I wonder how the developers feel that invested in that platform?

~~~
Joeri
The problem is that there's been no gold rush to reach critical mass. There
aren't enough apps to draw in users, and there aren't enough users to sustain
apps (as a business). The apps which are there are lower quality and miss
features, with few updates and getting fewer.

I get that MS is in a tough spot. They need the apps to gain traction, but
they need traction to get apps. If they'd been faster out of the gate catching
up with iphone the market might have split threeways, but by now it's an
entrenched duopoly and no new entrant can make a difference. I still think
windows phone is better phone OS than iOS or android, but at this point the
quality doesn't matter. See also: webOS, FirefoxOS.

Long story short, i think MS is doing everything they can to make the platform
work for developers (excellent tools, easy porting from iOS and android,
universal apps), but it's just too late. They were there before iphone
(windows mobile), but they didn't innovate fast enough when the iphone
happened, and now it's too late.

~~~
Touche
> There aren't enough apps to draw in users, and there aren't enough users to
> sustain apps (as a business).

All evidence suggests that apps do not influence which phone a user buys.
Users install less than 1 app per month. Windows Phone is unsuccessful for
other reasons.

~~~
shinratdr
The problem with those kind of stats is they fold in every $0 Android device
that are purchased and used essentially as glorified dumbphones. If you've
ever used apps on those devices, you can plainly see why nobody would install
anything onto them. I'm not going to cite average numbers of apps installed,
because those stats fluctuate wildly and are typically bullshit. They also
don't help substantiate usage.

Windows Phone isn't only unsuccessful because of the lack of significant
applications, but acting like it isn't a major factor is just being wilfully
blind to reality. Microsoft can't just endlessly throw money at the problem.
They can't buy their way into popularity if there is no organic momentum that
follows, and there isn't.

Windows Phone overall fails to make a compelling argument. But having backseat
YouTube, Instagram, Facebook and Twitter clients and no SnapChat or other
similarly flourishing services until it's so late nobody cares anymore is a
substantial disadvantage.

Finally, that statistic you chose to offer is almost irrelevant. I probably
install less than one app a month on my Macs, but that doesn't mean the apps
I've already installed aren't extremely important to me. Just because people
aren't constantly hunting for new apps doesn't mean they don't use the ones
they have.

By that measure, the fact that I've only installed one password manager in
five years means I don't like or use password managers. Quite the contrary, it
just means I love 1Password and use it every day.

~~~
bitmapbrother
>The problem with those kind of stats is they fold in every $0 Android device
that are purchased and used essentially as glorified dumbphones.

As if WP stats aren't dominated by cheap $0 phones that are also purchased and
used as dumbphones and in the case of WP more so because of the lack of apps
for the platform.

------
555imon
Windows Phone did not take off when it partnered with Nokia to sell Lumia
Phones. At that time Nokia still had market share and loyal users especially
in Europe and India. Despite a good OS, great dev tools and good OEM backing
MSFT did not manage to get a market share of 10% be a relevant 3rd platform.
It's hard to imagine how MSFT would restart a battle that has been lost some
time ago.

------
github-cat
Cannot believe it. The market share of Windows Phone is even lower than Java
ME. [https://www.netmarketshare.com/operating-system-market-
share...](https://www.netmarketshare.com/operating-system-market-
share.aspx?qprid=9&qpcustomb=1)

------
wordbank
No, I'm using Lumia 830 and had 520 before. There are all basic apps and many
Unity games.

And Lumia 5 __series are selling like hotcakes in poor countries. Windows
Phone OS is smooth and fast on low-end even compared to iOS.

(I'm not a MS fan, OS X is my desktop.)

------
coldtea
Was it ever alive?

