

Bill Gates: We need crazy energy entrepreneurs - suprgeek
http://gigaom.com/cleantech/bill-gates-we-need-crazy-energy-entrepreneurs/

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mseebach
Most effort on the climate change front seems to be going towards linear
solutions to essentially exponential problems: A few percent solar/wind in the
grid mix, smart meters that allows utilization of those to go up a few
percent, more expensive gas to discourage driving, incentives to buy more
efficient vehicles. Encouraging better insulation of buildings.

But it's obvious that you can't fight an exponential battle with linear
weapons.

Making cars run on an _available_ non-fossil source of energy seems to be
where the biggest win is - but it's much bigger task than inventing a good
battery, electricity is still expensive, fossil in many places and the grids
have nowhere near to capacity to sustain a large population of chargeable
electrics. Bio-fuel tech is here, but we don't have the bio-mass to make it
from. Etc.

The only area in this field that is ready for one-point disruption as far as I
can tell is liquid bio-fuels. There is a world-wide mature infrastructure, and
the market is hungering for a lower-cost alternative. I read about a bio-
start-up that's developing an algae-catalysed process that converts sunlight
and atmospheric carbon dioxide into a sort of crude oil that can be directly
refined just like crude oil.

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Egregore
I actually live off the grid using a system of solar panels inverters and
batteries (lead AGM batteries), the batteries are the most expensive part of
the system, in the summer there is a lot of sun - I can cook with electricity,
in the winter I'm using a netbook instead of the notebook to save electricity.

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hobin
"I'm using a netbook instead of the notebook to save electricity." Why? A
notebook uses less power than a lightbulb these days.

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Egregore
We don't use lightbulbs for lighting we use leds, so our lighting consumes
less electricity than a notebook. In the evening I check how much electricity
is left in accumulators and after using notebook in a cloudy day there is less
electricity than after a netbook.

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hobin
I didn't mean you had to use lightbulbs, I just wondered whether the
difference between using a notebook and a netbook was actually significant. Do
you by any chance know how much of a difference it makes (in energy)? I would
be interested in knowing. :)

~~~
Egregore
For Asus EePC it's about 20Wt for Toshiba Notebook it's about 40Wt.

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nchuhoai
This is in line with what Peter Thiel is saying: IT has been taking a lot of
attention and talent from the "hard" sciences and it is certainly arguable
that major scientific breakthroughs have been getting more rare. During the
cold war it was cool to be an astronaut, now it is being the CEO of the next
mobile social local photo sharing startup.

~~~
larsberg
I disagree. It's a lack of research job opportunities that pushes people from
hard sciences and into, especially finance IT. At the risk of sounding like
NDT, funding for research labs (and yes, NASA) would suck up the hard sciences
people like nothing.

And until you have the basic research figured out, it's pretty hard to just
"entrepreneur" your way through these problems.

There are plenty of people who pursue degrees in the hard sciences --- PhDs in
physics, chemistry, etc. Then, somewhere around their third year, they all
realize that:

1) To get a faculty job, you have to be beyond brilliant. I'm not. Research
labs? Also barely scraping by. Be prepared to, at best, be on soft money and
have to apply for grants every 2-3 years, most of which run between a 10-20%
acceptance rate.

2) There are some industry labs. They pay decently, but it's basically
carrying out others experiments in line with short-term goals. Where can XX
find / extract more oil?

Is it any surprise they wake up and shift, particularly to finance IT, where
they can at least get paid well? Spend a month learning stochastic calculus
and you're good to go. Yes, I oversimplify, but not by too much (at least, for
the hard sciences people I've talked with here at the UofC and in the post-
graduation Chicago finance shops).

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nchuhoai
but dont you think when kids are in high school or college, they think about
what they wanna be? I doubt people look into NASA funding to decide whether to
go into the hard sciences or just stick with computers

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larsberg
Are you arguing not enough kids go into the hard sciences? That's certainly
another debatable point, but different from the one I'm making.

I'm pointing out that of the people who _already_ go into the hard sciences
and even get a PhD, we can't keep them in the hard sciences due to a lack of
good research jobs for them. So they take an IT job.

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oskarth
Quote from HN user shingen, someone who has been hellbanned. I thought it was
a valuable contribution to the discussion, so I reposted it here for people
who don't have showdead on (or would like to save their eyes):

 _Electricity isn't expensive, we have a government that tends to make
everything extraordinarily expensive. Obama's trillion dollar stimulus shot
could have built a hundred nuclear power plants in America. Or 50 plants, plus
transmission to carry the juice. Except the runway from here to there is a
minefield filled with lobbyist groups, endless regulatory hurdles,
congressional reviews, lawsuits, etc. All of which are government failures
tied to tort reform, lobbying reform, and bad regulations and bad processes
related to regulation. The rest of the world thinks America is a joke when it
comes to energy. Canada understands energy; China understands energy; Japan
understands energy. We can't even build a simple pipeline - until the next
week, when Obama goes from claiming he's a protector of the environment, to
bragging he has built enough pipeline to circle the world. Canada and China
look at this and laugh.[http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/03/22/450397/obama-
worst-...](http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/03/22/450397/obama-worst-..). I
think it can easily be argued that America has the most ineffectual government
among major economies. We spend the most, for the least results (which
blankets most segments, including education)._

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onemoreact
You can't store electricity so it's mostly pointless to build extra power
plants beyond what we are actually using.

So, if we don't need more power _now_ what should we be spending that trillion
on? IMO, R&D would have a much better ROI both in terms of economic
development and climate change. However, for various reasons, the Bush / Obama
stimulus plans focused on protecting bankers in the short term vs. long term
economic growth.

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blueprint
The world may need such people but the majority of the scientific population
is very quick to ridicule them, and existing industries like oil do their best
to prevent them from executing. So not only must the entrepreneur have a
unique viewpoint on the problems but they must be very courageous too. I'm
glad someone like Bill Gates is standing up and saying this but I'm anxious
that it's too late, and that it won't be possible without big changes to the
way our society is structured.

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pradocchia
Right, energy is awfully political.

Between the technical challenges and the political challenges, I recon the
political ones are the harder of the two. Get the politics right, and the
technology will sort it self out. Don't get the politics right, and the
technology doesn't have a chance.

I'm also glad Gates has turned his attention to energy. 'Tis good to have
someone of his resources and temperament focused on the problem.

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suprgeek
Loved this line...

He’s also a limited partner in Khosla Ventures, Vinod Khosla’s fund, and Gates
jokingly referred to _Khosla as “the pay master of crazy people — some of whom
we’ll declare sane,” in the future_

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aklemm
Would love to have seen some energy-industry ideas in pg's essay on
Frighteningly Ambitious Startup Ideas
<http://www.paulgraham.com/ambitious.html>

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visava
With all the wind in bay area a wind mill in every house can solve major part
of energy problem. But HOA rules are the roadblock in their widespread
installation

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grep2
And, from the experiences in Germany, I can tell you: Wind mills suffer badly
from "not in my backyard" syndrome, since they destroy the scenery and make
noise.

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uptown
Am I the only person that finds these things beautiful to look at? They're
captivating to me.

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tudorizer
I love windturbines too, for some very strange reason. I could stare at them
for hours. Especially fields of them.

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bdr
FYI it can be a sign of being somewhere on the autism spectrum. A lot of
programmers are.

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rbanffy
Just let's not forget we also need ethical ones too.

In fact, I'd trade a crazy unethical one for a sane and ethical one without
thinking twice.

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alexeiz
If Bill Gates need energy miracles why doesn't he spend his own money on that?
Stay away from taxpayer money!

