
Investors are using alternative data to track China’s recovery from Covid-19 - TheAlchemist
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/guid/6F29C668-58DA-11EA-AAB7-35CBCDC8E222
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allovernow
>The official data lags

That's an understatement. We've seen rank incompetence across the board all
over the world. The US markets are still far too optimistic, today's rally
won't last. China is _still_ barely recovering two months later, and the show
is only just starting in the rest of the world. This is going to have
permanent geopolitical ramifications, and the U.S. is probably weeks away from
the same disruption that is still gripping China.

Based on timelapses of spreading in South Korea, the first couple of weeks are
quiet, where there are cases popping up here and there. Then, suddenly, week
three sees the whole country light up with cases. This partly a result of
testing changes, and partly the result of long incubation with asymptomatic
spreading.

One thing in the U.S.' favor may be it's sprawling nature. That may make it
easier to contain the virus, but only in the case of major travel restrictions
and shuttered businesses to prevent spread of a virus with an R0 of between 3
and 6-8.

Based on the 100 year history of the djia, there's still a looong way for the
market to fall before it hits bottom. If you're near retirement you may want
to consider shifting funds into bonds.

