

Are North Korean Long-Range Missiles Real? - gbrumfiel
http://www.npr.org/2013/05/07/181961581/are-those-north-korean-long-range-missiles-for-real

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zachrose
"Our assessment of where [a functional ICBM] exists in [the lifetime of North
Korean development program] is something that would remain classified," [The
Vice-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff] said.

What strategic advantage do we have by not telling North Korea what we think
we know about their programs?

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reeses
Revealing specific information would identify an asset in the program. For
example, if they confirmed that the warheads were made of thin sheet aluminum
over wooden forms, there are a reasonably limited number of people who would
legitimately have that information. A few more confirmations, and the number
of people in the Venn diagrams of cleared individuals would be reduced.

They need the informants to remain valuable. The informant should feel
reasonably safe (or scared enough of the consequences of not complying) and
able to maintain their access so that they can continue to provide or
corroborate information.

Leaking everything would get a lot of people killed. The intelligence agencies
would have to cultivate and develop new assets.

