

How Google will kill Internet Explorer and save the web - bensummers
http://blog.isotoma.com/2010/04/how-google-will-kill-internet-explorer-and-save-the-web/

======
noibl
1\. I don't believe Google is in the business of killing off other companies'
products by strategic/underhand/'evil' means. One possible reason for this is
a corporate belief in a kind of technological natural selection: the optimal
solution to a problem will eventually win no matter how many emergences of it
you manage to kill off. Thinking about killing off competitors' products by
any means other than offering superior products is a serious distraction which
can damage a company's viability in the long term.

2\. Youtube is nice but as the author almost admits, it's just not a big
enough lever to bring about this kind of change. The suggestion that IE,
currently bundled with Windows, will see its market share drop to 20% because
of Youtube is kind of ridiculous.

3\. The motivation is insufficient. Google wants to stick a fork in
Microsoft's eye and bury the Flash runtime why? Allegedly to promote HTML5 and
CSS3. Well, Microsoft is already awake on that front, the only question
regarding support is how soon will IE9 be released. Google and Adobe are
collaborating on the successor to NSAPI as well as Android support. Google
currently uses Flash all over the place and has just agreed to bundle it with
Chrome. It's reasonable to guess that Flash's VP6 codec will soon be updated
to VP8.

Google is not at war with either Microsoft or Adobe. Apple (or maybe just
Steve Jobs) is at war with Google. Partnering with those other companies in
ways that advance the state-of-the-art is a much more sensible approach in the
current climate than anything suggested in this article.

~~~
ZeroGravitas
The prediction was 20% in two years, I think Youtube was proposed as only part
of Google's strategy.

IE dropped from about 60 to 50 this past year, so extending that out two years
gives you 30%. Taking that into account 20% isn't actually a ridiculous
figure.

You could even argue that it could hit some kind of tipping point and increase
the rate of change. I believe Youtube(and some other Google properties) are
already trying to move people from IE6, which is itself a third of IE's share.

I personally agree mostly with your points about collaboration but also think
that Google can most effectively _kill_ Flash, by working with Microsoft on
HTML5, and most effectively _kill_ Microsoft by working with Adobe to fill in
IE's HTML5 gaps. Same with Apple etc. So collaboration and extreme competition
don't have to be mutually exclusive.

------
toto
Has the IE haters understood that Chrome is the biggest threat to Firefox and
not IE?

IE will still be deployed in Fortune 500 companies for years because Microsoft
work closely with them.

Chrome has all I need: speed and addons. All the great addons for developping
have been ported.

Why should I use FF?

~~~
axod
FWIW, Here's a graph of usage on Mibbit.com for a year to Jan:

<http://mibbit.com/browserShare.png>

As you can see, Firefox was pretty flat, and Chrome ate into IE.

Obviously the caveat is that this is for a specific webapp, but I think it
mirrors what is happening.

Chrome isn't going after the same crowd as Firefox really. Chrome is going
after the masses. Firefox has always been slightly more techy extension
installing people.

~~~
JulianMorrison
Interesting pattern there. IE 6 and 7 are collapsing as IE8 grows. I'd
interpret that as: Windows users are having to switch anyway - which opens
them up to the option of switching away from IE entirely.

~~~
icey
I think there's another force at play - everyone knows who Google is, so there
is an additional illusion of safety by going with Chrome. Outside of the tech
world, not a lot of people know or care about the Mozilla Foundation; there's
no implicit guarantee of quality.

------
ShabbyDoo
Google doesn't care if IE goes away, as long as IE is a standards-compliant,
performant browser. At that point, it's just a commodity offering from
Microsoft and not a strategic weapon used in an attempt to hold on to an
eroding Windows/Office monopoly.

Google wins when browsers become good enough to provide for so many user needs
that a Windows PC becomes viewed as a specialty device for gaming, etc.
Google's cloud printing initiative is further evidence that they hold this
view. Grandma might be happy with a ChromeOS netbook sitting on the coffee
table so she can videoconference with her kids, but she still wants to print
photos of her grandkids for the refrigerator -- so, she still owns a Windows
machine instead.

What does "win" mean for Google? The obvious benefit is that breaking down the
Windows/Office franchise cuts off a lot of Microsoft's air supply. The oft
stated benefit is that Google is best positioned to monetize a Windows-free
world, but I think that breaking down Windows/Office is likely to lift all
boats but one.

------
Tichy
How relevant is IE really? I know it is a large fraction of surfers, but are
they equally relevant for every business? I think many companies can assume
their visitors are educated enough to switch.

Then there are the companies that only allow IE. In that case people should be
encouraged to switch jobs.

~~~
wanderr
Oops, accidentally upvoted. :P

Really I don't think encouraging people to switch jobs is a remotely realistic
idea.

~~~
Tichy
Why not?

~~~
wanderr
Because most people aren't geeks and just don't care about their computing
environment enough to make the huge move of seeking alternate employment. Not
to mention that in this lousy economy, your average person is probably quite
short on options.

Besides that, how well do you think a site would do if it told you to find a
new job - are you going to find a new job, or a new site?

~~~
Tichy
I don't think the likely corporate users of ie would be programmers. Rather,
they would be accountants seeking occasional entertainment on the internet.

------
patrickk
This article is the very definition of "going out on a limb."

 _"It is rumoured Google will soon open-source the VP8 video compression
format by On2 Technologies..."_

Yeah, _rumoured._ Tech giants buy startups all the time, only to do nothing
with them.

 _"Google will transcode all videos on YouTube to VP8 format, and serve this
as the default to capable browsers."_

It's probably just as likely they'll leave things as they are. Or do what
they're doing with 3D on YouTube: offer it as an option in the menu on the
video's page for those with the hardware & software necessary.

 _"But if you’re using Internet Explorer, not to worry: all you need to do is
install a simple plugin: Chrome Frame. Chrome Frame effectively turns Internet
Explorer into Chrome."_

Chrome Frame doesn't turn IE into Chrome, it turns IE into something _similar_
to Chrome when on YouTube. When not browsing YouTube, it's still good old IE.
In other words, IE's market share will remain unaffected by this factor.

 _"...vast majority of IE users will either have switched to a different
browser...."_

No they won't. The vast majority of web users don't know what a browser is,
otherwise no-one would voluntarily use IE. I was using my non-technically
literate friend's PC a few months back, and I asked him why he was using IE as
his browser. His reponse: "What's a browser?"

 _"This will reveal Google’s acquisitions of YouTube, On2, and their
development of their own Chrome browser, merely as components in a masterpiece
of long-game strategy."_

There's no way in hell that Google could have anticipated that YouTube would
become the 3rd most trafficked site on the web when they purchased it and that
it would remain consistently popular. As for On2, a wait and see approach
would be prudent. Google's Chrome OS due out next year is far more relevant to
Google's ongoing battle with MS than anything else in this article.

Don't get me wrong, I hope what you are predicting will come true. But I
seriously doubt it will.

~~~
chairface
"Chrome Frame doesn't turn IE into Chrome, it turns IE into something similar
to Chrome when on YouTube. When not browsing YouTube, it's still good old IE."

I'm afraid you're mistaken. Chrome Frame replaces Trident, and renders any
page just as it would be in Chrome. It also uses Google's V8 javascript
engine, again without restriction as to the site you are visiting.

<http://code.google.com/chrome/chromeframe/>

------
arihant
It's hard to kill IE. Most users don't even know what a browser is, they just
click the big "e" button which takes them to google.

Chrome vs. IE is like "Android vs. iPhone" debate for someone who doesn't know
what a mobile phone is. Chrome vs. FF is a sensible topic, as someone who has
FF knows at least knows what a browser is, and might consider opting for
better experience.

~~~
axod
"To view Youtube videos in High definition, click here to install Chrome"

"To get fun themes and extra smilies in GMail, click here..."

There's quite a few ways.

~~~
arihant
"I installed Google Chrome, it said everything will work. But after installing
I again go back to internet by clicking "e" and it doesn't work"

Compare this to when they install the Chrome Frame plugin:

"I installed Chrome Frame and it rocked my 'e'.."

------
wanderr
This article is pure fantasy, with little to no basis in reality.

~~~
angstrom
Especially since there's no anticipation of the ensuing antitrust battles that
will probably creep into play from the EU if not the DOJ. This is very
familiar waters that Microsoft found itself in not so long ago.

------
latch
You can't run a successful website by making the experience miserable for a
significant percentage of your viewers. This article should be called 'How
Google might kill YouTube'.

------
nexneo
Google save list: HTC, Flash, Web, ... (so far)

------
yanw
Lots of speculation going on in that article, still, I hope much of it
materializes, an open video standard and new browsers will facilitate the
adoption of HTML5 and after seeing what can be done with the technology mostly
through the daily demo posts here on HN I would like IE to fuck off quite
frankly.

