

Age and the Entrepreneur, Part 1: Some Data (2007) - _pius
http://pmarchive.com/age_and_the_entrepreneur.html

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npalli
One key insight the original paper (by Dean Simonton) had was that creative
peak varies by field. So, some fields like poetry, pure mathematics,
theoretical physics admit of early peaks (by twenties). Well, turns out this
is not true. Consider Yitang Zhang who was in the news all of last year (to
the extent mathematicians can be :-), he was was almost 60 when he presented
his most famous proof. Clearly no spring chicken.

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yitang_Zhang](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yitang_Zhang)

new yorker article on yitang zhang

[http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/02/02/pursuit-
beauty](http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/02/02/pursuit-beauty)

When somebody researched the average age of Nobel prize winners (when they did
their prize winning work, not when they received it), they realized a gradual
drift upwards from 1901 to now. When quantum mechanics was new everyone making
new discoveries was under 30. The average age now is 50. Chemistry rose from
36 to 46 and medical scientists from 38 to 45.

[http://www.nature.com/news/2011/111107/full/news.2011.632.ht...](http://www.nature.com/news/2011/111107/full/news.2011.632.html)

So, I think you should find a field you love and work in it. Keep your at-bats
high and you might do ground breaking work in your 50's or 60's. Don't worry
about IQ, beyond 120 it doesn't matter. I have my doubts if it is possible to
do creative work beyond 75 but it is just a hunch.

In any case, entrepreneurship would seem like a field that would peak the
later part of life curve, so if you want to do it in your 60's go for it. Of
course, just like quantum mechanics in early 20th century, something
completely new like social media would be grokked by younger entrepreneurs but
that is only one field. Remember the greatest entrepreneur in modern era,
Steve Jobs, made his biggest hits after he turned 50.

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nicholasdrake
seems to imply that in old age say just 'go bat more' and with your constant
probability of success you'll produce more good work (if only you could
motivate yourself) but there may be a causality issue, where your motivation
to 'attempt' is not a blind thing but a function of whether you think you have
a good idea. i can accept that this judgement might be constant over time, but
'potential attempt material' seems unlikely to be purely exogenous..

