

Why are software development task estimations regularly off by a factor of 2-3? - devasiajoseph
http://www.quora.com/Engineering-Management/Why-are-software-development-task-estimations-regularly-off-by-a-factor-of-2-3

======
ColinWright
This question has been asked before - previous replies here on HN include:

    
    
        brg: Because software development is an act of invention. While
             experience and education often tell us that something is
             possible to accomplish, the route to the end is unknown.
    
             The metaphor Michael Wolfe provides is good. But software
             scheduling isn't so much about diversions and stumbles as
             it is about the trials of invention and artisanship.[0]
    
    
        zoowar: It doesn't matter what estimate software developers
                make, program management sets arbitrary release dates.[1]
    

(Typos fixed)

More than one person here referred to Michael Wolfe's answer.

And for reference, here are some of the submissions:

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6033335](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6033335)

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6028623](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6028623)

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6024765](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6024765)

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3808866](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3808866)

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3743048](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3743048)

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3598325](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3598325)

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3588950](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3588950)

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3535100](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3535100)

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3530928](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3530928)

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3528809](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3528809)

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3527970](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3527970)

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3521393](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3521393)

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3520585](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3520585)

\----

[0]
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3535010](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3535010)

[1]
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3743088](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3743088)

