
Tesla produces its millionth car - prostoalex
https://electrek.co/2020/03/09/tesla-produces-1000000th-electric-car/
======
spectramax
It's remarkable how simple it appears to build lots of cars, but its one of
those things that is completely and utterly counter-intuitive.

Logic says - get all these parts together, assemble them and off a car comes
out. Forget about engineering - assume all R&D work is done/frozen, the
supply-chain complexity alone is staggering. 2000+ suppliers, with multiple
redundancies. Keeping the assembly line moving without a hiccup is a
compounding a chain of all problems - all probabilities of things going wrong
at each station/module/step.

Another beast of an industry(which I am intimately familiar with) is
semiconductor manufacturing. But, it actually appears to be hard unlike car
manufacturing. Making 4 million chips a day, containing 2 billion transistors
sounds hard af and it is.

Manufacturing is a very interesting field to get into (even as software
engineers). Ever heard of this game - Factorio? You get to play that in real
life (with some pain and big rewards). If you can master manufacturing, you're
unbeatable because the entry point is so steep, learning curve is steeper and
scaling up is nothing like spinning up Kubernetes clusters and instances (no
offense meant).

Hey, kudos to all the people that burned midnight oil, persevered through
tough times at Tesla, congratulations. If you work at Tesla plant, please
share your story!

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jfim
That's a pretty impressive milestone. Cheers for the hard work from Tesla
employees!

~~~
chirau
What exactly is impressive? Leaf has more than that in prod already.

~~~
CriticalCathed
I can understand critiquing Tesla's business models, their claims about the
cars, their financial status, or even Musk's character. But calling what Tesla
has done over the last 10 years unimpressive makes no sense to me.

~~~
ltbarcly3
They produce great cars that people love, but people generally love high-end
very expensive cars.

A Nissan Leaf is not as nice of a car as a Tesla Model 3 in pretty much any
way, but it also costs 3/4 of the price. Meanwhile, the Leaf is profitable
per-car, and the base model Tesla Model 3 is barely break-even per-car, even
with the very aggressive accounting that Tesla uses. Tesla can't keep
producing base Model 3's at the price they are selling them for (even at over
$40k), they are a loss leader to look competitive on price, the profitable
version is well over $50k without government subsidies that will end this year
(and the performance model is over $60k). A leaf is around $30k.

~~~
sabertoothed
What is your point?

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lqs469
That's a really imperssive milestone. And Tesla still has a huge prospect of
the mass market in the future(e.g. in China or India), and that's exactly what
their current direction.

[1] [https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/06/tesla-gets-ok-to-
produce-l...](https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/06/tesla-gets-ok-to-produce-long-
range-model-3-at-china-factory/)

[2] [https://fortune.com/2020/01/07/elon-musk-tesla-
gigafactory-s...](https://fortune.com/2020/01/07/elon-musk-tesla-gigafactory-
shanghai-china-ceremony/)

[3] [https://www.benzinga.com/news/20/03/15507012/tesla-now-
china...](https://www.benzinga.com/news/20/03/15507012/tesla-now-chinas-
largest-ev-manufacturer-by-output-report)

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jerome-jh
Over the last year? Oh no, in its entire lifetime. Still it is valued more
than many traditional manufacturers, and there is no mystery tech in building
an EV.

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anordal
Meanwhile, the number of teslas in Norway passes 50 000:

[https://www.tu.no/artikler/na-har-tesla-
solgt-50-000-biler-i...](https://www.tu.no/artikler/na-har-tesla-
solgt-50-000-biler-i-norge/487010)

------
coder1001
Will Covid-19 affect its production rate going forward?

It is intriguing to see what these companies do to deal with disrupted supply
chains!

~~~
est
The Shanghai municipal government took special care of GF3. They resumed
production one month ago on 10th Feb.

[http://www.xinhuanet.com/2020-02/10/c_1125555728.htm](http://www.xinhuanet.com/2020-02/10/c_1125555728.htm)

However I do think the supply chain will need more time to recover.

And consumer market wise it's quite uncertain. People are locked in doors with
limited travelling needs, and oil prices are historically low.

~~~
AnthonyMouse
Still never understood why governments don't take "oil prices are low" as an
opportunity to put in a carbon tax. The low prices offset the tax for the
consumer, but then you make it revenue neutral by either cutting some other
taxes (e.g. payroll tax) or paying out the money as a UBI.

The result is you stimulate your economy because some of the tax is getting
paid by foreign oil interests but all of the money is going to your citizens.

------
animalnewbie
Tesla should now focus on a mass market electric vehicle to take the climate
crisis- something like a closed two-wheeler with broad tyres. Good for traffic
and temperature controlled too. Chinese people would buy it in droves.

~~~
whatshisface
Two-wheeled Chinese vehicles is a market that's already cornered by cost-
effective incumbent Chinese manufacturers. What exactly would this American
luxury brand have in that market?

~~~
trhway
The question sounded like a challenge, so how about Autopilot? Even for two
wheelers. I think going forward the autonomous driving will be even stronger
differentiator.

~~~
Avi-D-coder
How would you keep your balance on a self driving motorcycle? You would always
have to pay attention to the road.

~~~
trhway
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-03/ford-s-
tw...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-03/ford-s-two-wheel-
concept-car-gets-a-chinese-electric-makeover)

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ltbarcly3
It's great what tesla has done to push electric vehicles to the point of a
status symbol, and prove their viability as an every day driving car.

Tesla is a remarkable company, but they are terrible at building and
delivering cars, which is very much the primary competence needed to succeed
as a company that sells cars. Their production rates have dramatically trailed
their promises, and while they are valued at around $160B, they are hoping to
build about 500k cars this year. Volkswagon builds that many cars every 2
weeks or so, and actually makes a profit on each car, as does Toyota (10M cars
each, per year, for VW and Toyota, 7M for GM and Hyundai, per year). Tesla is
worth more than any two other car companies (other than Toyota) while
producing around 5% as many cars as any one of them, if Tesla hits their
goals.

Success as as a car company is more about being able to _produce_ cars that
people want -- efficiently, than it is about designing cars that people want.
Otherwise Lamborghini would be selling more cars than all the other car
companies combined, if posters and dreams could somehow translate into units
shipped without regard to price or ability to actually build cars in the
necessary volume. The two huge success stories in cars are Ford, who invented
the assembly line, and Toyota, who invented Kanban, both of which dramatically
increased the quality while decreasing the labor input of manufacturing cars.
Tesla, with all their claims of automation, produces cars using about 1/3 the
automation of Toyota today (9 vs 24 cars for full-time employee per year)
while using accounting tricks to claim large per car margins, while showing a
large loss using standard accounting practices.

I think if I had to make a guess, Tesla will be in the same chapter in the
history of cars as DeLorian and Duesenberg.

~~~
SECProto
> I think if I had to make a guess, Tesla will be in the same chapter in the
> history of cars as DeLorian and Duesenberg.

I don't actually know what chapter that would be. Delorean was around for 3
years, and made ~9000 cars. Duesenberg (of which I had never heard) made race
cars, somewhere under 1000... There really isn't a good comparison to be made
with Tesla.

~~~
ltbarcly3
I picked Duesenberg because in their day they had about the same market share
that Tesla has today.

~~~
9nGQluzmnq3M
Duesenberg was a race & luxury car manufacturer, and their heyday was in the
roaring twenties. A lot has changed in 100 years.

~~~
ltbarcly3
And tesla isn't making luxury cars? Their cheapest car is significantly more
expensive than the cheapest mercedes!

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eBombzor
Can't wait till they hit the 1 millionth super charger milestone!

------
baluicu
Omg, Milestone reached [https://www.posterdp.com/tesla-
cars/](https://www.posterdp.com/tesla-cars/)

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gordon_freeman
such a great milestone! I hope they hit 10 million one by 2030! We need more
companies like Tesla in this world.

~~~
ro-_-b
The one thing I don't get is that everybody assumes there is unlimited demand
for Tesla cars, Tesla just needs to be able to produce. But realistically,
let's assume that in 1-2 years government subsidies will end then how many
people will still want an EV for a price tag of minimum 30k & can afford it?
All that Tesla produces are cars for the premium segment despite some mass
market rhetoric.

~~~
mikeg8
I think there is a massive market of young people that would love to own a
Tesla when they reach the required income level. It’s a green product, from a
company with grand ambitions to address climate change, and an incredible car.
Everyone I know who has one loves it, and most who get to drive them, wish
they had one. It feels like the future, and 30k isn’t a crazy price for the
value if offers.

~~~
Marsymars
As a young(ish) person, what would most interest me in an electric car is
essentially an electrified Corolla. I don't derive any value from performance,
features, or looks. I care about safety, reliability, range, and cost.

A Model 3 with 500km of range is over triple the price of a Corolla and a Leaf
is over double the price in my market - they just don't make financial sense
until they drastically drop in price.

~~~
gordon_freeman
I own a new 2020 Corolla Hybrid and it gives me 58 mpg mileage and cost me
$25,000 including all the destination, DMV, etc. charges plus with 3 years of
add-on maintenance. Impressive considering when I pay $350 EMI ($0 down-
payment on 84 months loan) every month on it and it already saves me about $70
that same month on gas compared to my previous car. So overall the Adj EMI
would be just $280.

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JohnJamesRambo
[https://www.statista.com/statistics/267272/worldwide-
vehicle...](https://www.statista.com/statistics/267272/worldwide-vehicle-
production-of-toyota/)

Toyota makes ~9 million cars every year.

Tesla just made its millionth car ever.

Toyota market cap 201B.

Tesla market cap 112B (was ~170B at peak).

The stock market still has very far to fall before it comes back to reality
again.

~~~
nine_k
It's being on a mature market vs being on a new, not yet well-developed
market. The second has a much larger growth potential. That is, while Toyota
is great, it's unlikely that your investment in it will return tenfold. With
Tesla, the chances are much higher.

Also, Toyota started making cars in 1933 (licensed GM models), Tesla, in 2012
(an all-new _class_ of cars).

~~~
kakwa_
That's one way to see it.

Another would be to say in the end, it's the same "mature" market, one more EV
sell is most likely one less ICE sell.

And it's not like EVs have tremendously changed the equation, the price is
about the same (total cost of ownership), the capabilities are about the same
(slightly better on some aspects, like performance, slightly worst in term of
autonomy and refueling/recharging time). Right now, EVs are not extending or
creating a market but are triggering a re-composition of this market.

Maybe in the future, we will see more deeper changes which will trigger a
major shift (autopilots that work? reduction in cost? (EVs are engineeringly
simpler than ICE vehicles)) but we are not there yet.

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dusted
I'm impressed there's so few, they're everywhere these days..

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RickJWagner
I am surprised. A few short months ago, many were writing Tesla's obituary.
(Mostly in the financial news. Maybe it was an attempt to manipulate the stock
price.)

I'm glad to see this. Keep rocking, Tesla!

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asaph
The 1,000,000th car was a Model Y.

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baluicu
dfsd

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antisocial_
The funny thing is that the corona virus will do more to reduce pollution than
tesla cars ever will. Currently, they just sell luxury vehicles that are much
heavier than existing cars (where did all that mass come from?), require hours
to refill, and have poor range. The one trick they have is that they can
accelerate fast, once. What progressives never mention is that the number one
cause of pollution is population size.

Elon Musk is another one of those progressive tech people that the rest of
society has stopped caring about because they realized that we weren't
progressing to anywhere good, and that technology doesn't solve anything. None
of them are leaders to anyone other than a small group of naive 20 somethings.

