
Bitcoin hits 3-year peak, nears record high on U.S. ETF approval - mrb
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-bitcoin-idUSKBN16221V
======
out_of_protocol
Another all time high (or so):

Over 100k transactions in mempool (waiting to be confirmed)

[https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/all.html](https://jochen-
hoenicke.de/queue/all.html)

~~~
colordrops
I wonder how many people are aware of the ongoing and raging battle between
big blockers who want a hard fork to upgrade block size, and small blockers,
who want a soft fork that adds functionality to make side chains feasible. I
am strongly biased for one of these, but won't say which to avoid being
attacked.

Awaiting the propaganda wave in response to my comment...

~~~
mchristen
Doubtful, the crew at r/bitcoin do a great job of stifling any opposing
discussion and sadly r/bitcoin is way more popular then r/btc.

One could be a regular visitor to r/bitcoin and have no clue that there is a
huge political battle going on amongst the users, miners and developers.

~~~
Frogolocalypse
/r/bitcoin was being brigaded by a person (Roger Ver) with a personal vendetta
against the moderator of /r/bitcoin, and pays people to do it. The moderation
policies are there for anyone to see, and if you feel like you don't have an
outlet for your theories there, there are plenty of other outlets for you
elsewhere.

What seems to be mostly adolescents continually scream 'censorship' without
knowing the meaning of the word. Without that moderation, you get the cesspool
funded by Roger Ver.

[https://xkcd.com/1357/](https://xkcd.com/1357/)

~~~
Fantastic_T
I was one of the first people to join /r/bitcoin, and was banned years later,
after the block size debate started, for being on the large block side.

------
Someone1234
It would be interesting to see a breakdown of WHAT Bitcoin are being trading
for (e.g. pure investment, black market goods, standard commercial
goods/services).

Without a good understand of what drives Bitcoin's use it is hard to tell if
this is an investment bubble or legitimate organic growth. I will say I don't
run across all too many sites that support payment via Bitcoin, I know they
exist, but it hasn't expanded to be commonplace.

But I've read the drug market on e.g. Tor is alive and well. So maybe that
drives a lot of this trading.

~~~
Exofunctor
Personally, I've done a lot of dev work for Bitcoin for foreign nationals. It
gets real annoying real fast to deal with PayPal or traditional international
money transfer systems when you're talking contract work levels of money for a
small company (too much for shitty remittance services, too little to make the
overhead of more complicated bank-managed mechanisms worth it).

And yes, I do pay taxes on my Bitcoin payments. It's somewhat annoying to keep
track of everything, but my accountant mostly takes care of it for me. I
probably end up losing ~2% to overhead (very little of which is due to Bitcoin
itself), which is unfortunate but comparable to even the cheapest traditional
services.

~~~
disposableteen2
Could you elaborate how you find clients like this? Do you specifically look
for clients who are willing to pay in bitcoin or work on bitcoin-related
projects?

~~~
Exofunctor
Clients mostly find me. I'm honestly not sure how to optimize for that, it's
usually pretty random. I guess for those clients I do seek out, they'll post
about wanting developers in forums or mailing lists or whatever.

------
dmix
This is how Bitcoin must progress. Slow and steady. A platform like this can't
be the result of rocket like growth and instantly transform marketplaces. Much
of finance is based on stable assured systems.

This is a good sign overall. Even if BTC isn't the right answer as a currency.

~~~
cjbprime
The price of Bitcoin has nearly tripled in the last year, and dropped from
$1150 to $750 last month. It's neither slow nor steady.

~~~
fpgaminer
It's also at a 0% increase relative to ~3 years ago. 0% is ... very steady.

~~~
kylebenzle
That's a silly thing to say.

------
toephu2
I haven't seen a single bitcoin exchange that is stable and trustworthy enough
to put your money in (Mt. Gox used to be the biggest and most reputable and we
all know how that turned out). Converting from your real currency in to and
out of bitcoin is still very difficult. Almost every exchange gets hacked
sooner or later or gets shutdown due to government regulations.

~~~
AlphaWeaver
That may be true, but we've come a long way. Coinbase insures all currency
they store in online storage, and offline storage is significantly more secure
and less hackable. USD in Coinbase accounts is FDIC insured too! It's not
perfect, but we've certainly come closer to a safer exchange world.

~~~
Zak
Coinbase also blocks accounts from buying and refuses explanation. They may be
a little safer, but they're still far from reliable.

~~~
meowface
I personally favor them being overzealous than too lax.

I'm pretty confident Coinbase will still be here in 10 years with no major
breach. And I'm also fairly confident that even if there were a major breach,
I wouldn't personally lose any Bitcoins or money.

------
delegate
Great, the MacBook Pro that I bought back in 2014 with Bitcoin is now worth
over $8,000 !

People bought drugs on SilkRoad back when the price was $2 / bitcoin. Those
must have been some of the most expensive drugs in history !

~~~
jikachu2
I never really understood this perspective. Suppose you had $4,000 worth of
bitcoins in 2014 and spent $2,000 on a MacBook, you'd have $2,000 worth of
bitcoin left. That $2,000 worth of bitcoin would now be worth more than your
original $4,000 and you have a MacBook. If anything, your MacBook was free.

~~~
sowbug
This hypothetical scenario is muddled. OP is lamenting an investment decision
(sell BTC, buy computer). It's irrelevant that he/she might have had extra
funds (the second $2,000 of bitcoin in your example) that weren't part of that
investment decision. OP probably owns other assets as well (car, stocks, patio
furniture, etc.). They weren't part of the investment, either. They're
irrelevant to this analysis.

Saying the computer was free is misunderstanding what "free" means. If the
computer were free, he/she would have paid $0 for it and would still have the
bitcoin.

~~~
jikachu2
Of course you're right that I am misusing the word "free." But, I understood
OP to be criticizing the deflationary nature of Bitcoin rather than lamenting
a personal decision to spend his/her own bitcoin holdings. My point was just
that it isn't a bad thing for your money to triple in value.

------
sputknick
I'm curious how others on HN feel: I think Bitcoin is an evolutionary dead-end
and the future is Ethereum. Ethereum is more powerful and allows more
development on top of it than Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin still holds sway
because it was first, but I think Ethereum has a brighter future. Anyone have
a good rebuttal, or am I on the mark?

~~~
ericb
Rebuttal: Ethereum has far worse properties as a store of value.

-More complex codebase, which makes assessing vulnerabilities more difficult, and security more difficult.

-Ethereum broke trust and "code is law" when self-interested parties were able to rewrite history. Transaction malleability is a terrible property for a "store of value." It leaves the currency open to government interference, manipulation, etc.

-Ethereum has an inflationary schedule. Given a choice between holding an inflating or deflating asset, it seems straightforward which to choose.

-The utility of a given currency is dependent on the number of holders (like Metcalf's law)

-The hashrate and mining power securing bitcoin's network is far greater.

~~~
flashmob
Technically, no history was re-written! No transactions were undone, but the
fork agreed to new rules. The users of the new version also had a choice if
they wanted to support the fork or not, the majority went with the fork.

Ability for a community to set and agree to new rules is healthy for a
blockchain and it makes it more likely that Ethereum can evolve and
successfully hardfork to POS mining in the future.

~~~
vkou
Since the executive branch is democratically elected, and the executive branch
appoints people to run the Fed, the same can be said for USD.

~~~
Frondo
Correct, the Fed is a democratic institution.

Anyone who claims otherwise is confused or trying to sell you something.

~~~
iopq
They weren't on my ballot.

~~~
Frondo
They don't need to be, to be a democratic institution. The head of the EPA or
any other federal agency wasn't on your ballot, but the choice you made for
president determined that, too.

------
pdog
_> The SEC will decide by March 11 whether to approve one filed almost four
years ago by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss. If approved, it would be the first
bitcoin ETF issued and regulated by a U.S. entity._

This would combine the ridiculous volatility of bitcoin with the all-day
tradeability of an ETF. What could go wrong?

~~~
mrb
60 ETFs are more volatile than Bitcoin:
[https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-11-01/five-
reas...](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-11-01/five-reasons-the-
winklevoss-bitcoin-etf-should-be-approved)

~~~
slg
It doesn't list all of the ETFs that are more volatile but the one they do
list is a leveraged ETF. I would imagine most of the other 59 are as well.
These leveraged ETFs are specifically designed to be multiple times more
volatile than the market they represent. They are meant for traders to
speculate on movement of the markets and no sane person would hold them for
any extended period of time. A Bitcoin ETF being more stable than them is not
an accomplishment and anyone saying as much is showing a complete
misunderstanding of the goals of those two investment vehicles.

~~~
mrb
Similarly, a Bitcoin ETF is "specifically designed" to track Bitcoin's
volatility for traders who want to speculate on movements of BTC. There is
nothing wrong with that, just like there is nothing wrong with these 60 other
ETFs. My point is the initial poster (pdog) is wrong to assume volatility was
a problem in and of itself for these ETFs.

~~~
slg
>Similarly, a Bitcoin ETF is "specifically designed" to track Bitcoin's
volatility for traders who want to speculate on movements of BTC.

Except the Bitcoin ETF isn't leveraged like the example ETF. To borrow a term
from your linked article, "It’s a wolf in wolf’s clothing." The example ETF is
designed to be volatile, it is clear up front, and anyone investing knows it.
The Bitcoin ETF isn't designed to be volatile, it just is because of the
volatility of Bitcoin. If the Bitcoin ETF is marketed as a buy and hold type
investment, then the volatility is a problem.

~~~
mrb
And the article precisely makes the point that everybody knows Bitcoin is
volatile, hence volatility isn't a "problem" for this ETF.

~~~
slg
This is based on an assumption. These things shouldn't have to be assumed. For
example, check out the page for the example ETF from the article [1].

>Leveraged and inverse ETFs pursue daily leveraged investment objectives which
means they are riskier than alternatives which do not use leverage. They seek
daily goals and should not be expected to track the underlying index over
periods longer than one day. They are not suitable for all investors and
should be utilized only by investors who understand leverage risk and who
actively manage their investments.

[1] - [http://www.direxioninvestments.com/products/direxion-
daily-j...](http://www.direxioninvestments.com/products/direxion-daily-junior-
gold-miners-bull-3x-etf)

It makes the volatility clear. It tells you not to buy and hold. Would a
Bitcoin ETF have those same type of warnings?

~~~
modeless
> Would a Bitcoin ETF have those same type of warnings?

No need to speculate. The answer is yes, the COIN ETF has all the appropriate
warnings. The risks are quite clearly spelled out in the S-1 as is standard
with these sorts of things:
[https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579346/000119312517...](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579346/000119312517034708/d296375ds1a.htm#toc296375_4)

------
STRML
We've been watching the ETF with interest. To gauge market sentiment, we
launched an ETF approval binary contract
([https://www.bitmex.com/app/trade/COIN_BH17](https://www.bitmex.com/app/trade/COIN_BH17)).
COIN_BH17 saw a jump from 35% to nearly 50% today. Optimism on the ETF is
rising.

~~~
Frogolocalypse
Even as a long-time holder of bitcoin, I don't see how the Coin ETF will be
approved. There is so much risk in the ETF that your investment may be wiped
out instantly. I wouldn't approve it.

My expectation is that it will be rejected, and the price of bitcoin will
crash back to about USD$700 or so, and continue its long march upwards. It's
important to recognize that that crash would still mean that bitcoin has
almost doubled in value vs the US dollar in the past year. It has doubled in
value over the past six months.

~~~
kobeya
That's not the metric by which ETFs are approved or denied.

~~~
Frogolocalypse
I'd say the risk of a fork of the thing that you're supposedly tracking, such
that you might not even know what you are tracking anymore, is a serious risk
that the SEC would consider to be a problem.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love for it to be approved. But for that reason, I
don't think it will be.

~~~
tlrobinson
A fork could definitely cause some temporary confusion, but wouldn't an ETF
just be tracking the sum of the value of the forks? At some point they'd need
to pick a side, but in the meantime they could just buy/sell equal amounts of
the forked currencies. Once they do pick a side they could either sell the
other side of the fork, or allow withdrawals (like Coinbase, etc did with
ETC).

As long as the rules are laid out ahead of time I'm not sure why the SEC would
object.

------
timeal
Bitcoin is within 0.4% of its all-time high
([http://www.coindesk.com/price/](http://www.coindesk.com/price/) \- peaked at
$1165.89 in 2013). ATH breakout could and probably is going to happen any
minute now... In fact many exchanges have already reached their ATH in the
previous hours.

~~~
vocatus_gate
It just hit it: $1167 on Coinbase.

~~~
timeal
Actually it's the Bitcoin Price Index ATH that was $1165.89 (Nov 2013), while
the Coinbase ATH was $1175 (Jan 2017).

Both ATH were surpassed in the last hour.

~~~
vocatus_gate
Ah, good to know, thanks.

------
ungzd
> web-based "cryptocurrency"

Do the article authors have at least 0.01% understanding of what bitcoin is?
Or what web is? I'm very suprised of technical incompetence of authors writing
about technical stuff in top newspapers.

~~~
sowbug
If you mean that web == HTML + internet ports 80/443 etc., then it's a
forgivable error. s/web/internet/ doesn't make the article any more or less
effective at getting the main points across (price high, ETF rumors).

------
gigatexal
hindsight being what it is, i sure do wish i hadn't written off bitcoin when
it was less than a dollar a coin.

~~~
cjg
If only you assigned it a probability of success near zero rather than at
zero...

------
Aqueous
Some are quite bearish on the possibility of the ETF actually being approved:
[http://www.coindesk.com/needham-bitcoin-etf-
attract-300-mill...](http://www.coindesk.com/needham-bitcoin-etf-
attract-300-million-assets-approved/)

------
artursapek
The BTC price really is crazy. There's no telling where it is going to end up.
The long term chart is pretty amusing:
[https://cryptowat.ch/bitstamp/btcusd/1w](https://cryptowat.ch/bitstamp/btcusd/1w)

~~~
timeal
It's clear where it's headed on the log chart. Up!
[https://blockchain.info/charts/market-
price?scale=1&timespan...](https://blockchain.info/charts/market-
price?scale=1&timespan=all)

------
paulpauper
Bitcoin is surging because it's a globally accepted store of value and means
of commerce, and the fixed quantity prevents devaluation. Unlike gold, all
transactions can be done remotely and confidentially, an there are no storage
cost, eliminating all the problems that are associated with storing large
quantities of gold. IMHO, all dips will continue to be bought and the price
will keep rising...$4,000/coin is possible...been long since 2013, so I am
biased in that regard, but there are real fundamentals here too.

Foreign currencies have lost anywhere from 30%to 99% of their value against
the US dollar since 2013. Beginning around 2002 and ending around 2011, many
foreign governments carelessly amassed substantial infrastructure debts that
now they are struggling to pay off (due to economic weakness for these foreign
economies and the surging US dollar), creating a cycle of inflation and
currency depreciation, making Bitcoin more attractive to own for people and
businesses in these countries. Bitcoin is rising because citizens and
businesses have lost faith in the competence of their governments, and
rightfully so. America is an exception in that it's well-managed and strong
economically and fiscally (especially relative to these foreign economies),
which explains the flight to the US dollar, and also Bitcoin.

For example, in 2013, depositors at Cyrus' largest bank lost 48% of their
savings above 100,0000 Euros:

 _NICOSIA, Cyprus (AP) — Depositors at bailed-out Cyprus ' largest bank will
lose 47.5% of their savings exceeding 100,000 euros ($132,000), the government
said Monday.

The figure comes four months after Cyprus agreed on a 23 billion-euro ($30.5
billion) rescue package with its euro partners and the International Monetary
Fund. In exchange for a 10 billion euro loan, deposits worth more than the
insured limit of 100,000 euros at the Bank of Cyprus and smaller lender Laiki
were raided in a so-called bail-in to prop up the country's teetering banking
sector._

[http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/07/29/bank...](http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/07/29/bank-
of-cyprus-depositors-lose-savings/2595837/)

A second factor may be the rise of global authoritarianism, unrest, and
unease, reducing confidence in keeping money in banks, and assets that face
geopolitical risk...Bitcoin, because it's decentralized, is immune to
geopolitical risk. As long as you have your wallet, you have your wealth.

~~~
amenghra
[http://www.usdebtclock.org/](http://www.usdebtclock.org/) (although the whole
debt thing is complicated with state/federal bank owning a large piece of the
debt).

~~~
paulpauper
interest paid on US debt relative to GDP is at multi-decade lows
[https://blogs-
images.forbes.com/larahoffmans/files/2013/01/f...](https://blogs-
images.forbes.com/larahoffmans/files/2013/01/fisher-investments-debt-interest-
GDP.png)

The US dollar is unique because it's the world's benchmark of wealth. The
Forbes 400 list is benchmarked in dollars, not Yen or Euros. The US dollar is
not only a reserve currency, but everything (such has oil, gold, etc.) is
denominated in US dollars, not Euros, Francs, Pounds, or Yen. This allows the
US to persistently run trade deficits without hurting its 'wealth', unlike
other countries that wold lose wealth in the form of high inflation and
currency depreciation if they did the same. This makes the debt clock almost
meaningless, and had someone in 2000 sold short US treasuries in anticipation
of high inflation, they would have lost their shirt despite the national debt
surging since then.

------
spcelzrd
If history has taught me anything, this is the best time to buy.

~~~
iopq
Probably the best time to sell, actually. Buy when it crashes and stays
"uninteresting" for a year.

~~~
pvdebbe
I'm curious if people have shorted bitcoin to any meaningful extent.

~~~
iopq
I think there were some experiments with options, but I'm not sure how popular
that is

------
ns8sl
I sold my bitcoins to take a vacation when it was around 300. Mt. Gox had
imploded and I was guessing it would take longer than this to rebound.

Wrong!

~~~
eminkel
Same, but used it to pay off all CC debt. I think I made a good choice. Might
start auto-buying them again.

------
jankotek
And it is result of stable growth over past year...

------
jcslzr
i think BTC price used to be manipulated by big money, but now its seems that
with this volume its not so easy

------
jcoffland
Bitcoin has now hit its all time high.

------
kobeya
Shill much?

~~~
dang
Accusations of astroturfing or shillage are not allowed on HN without
evidence. Please don't do this again.

We detached this comment from
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13716677](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13716677)
and marked it off-topic.

~~~
kobeya
You should consider detaching comments that divert a thread to discussing
competition when it is entirely irrelevant to the topic at hand. Is is a well
known and commonly practiced discussion hijacking technique that does nothing
more than decrease the value of a discussion forum.

------
Frogolocalypse
The moderators of /r/bitcoin owe you nothing. If you don't like their
moderation policy, go somewhere else. No-one is forcing you to read them, and
you can't force yourself to be read by the people who go there if the people
there don't want to read what you have to say.

Hearn tried to fork bitcoin, and learned the hard way that the people who use
bitcoin didn't like his direction. He then had a whiny rage-quit, and has been
throwing rocks from over the fence ever since.

~~~
Fantastic_T
You're deflecting with a change of subject. This is the kind of attitude that
is typical of the pro-censorship crowd.

~~~
Frogolocalypse
You were the one brought up /r/bitcoin in a discussion about Hearn, not me.
And you did it in order to trash /r/bitcoin in an account you created an hour
ago. You're exactly the type of user that moderation was invented for.

