
The U.S. May Already Be in a Recession - sndean
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-06/the-u-s-may-already-be-in-a-recession-thanks-to-coronavirus
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aazaa
> It might seem crazy to talk about a recession when jobs are plentiful. Today
> the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced a decline in the February
> unemployment rate to 3.5%, tying a 50-year low.

Policy makers cling to the jobs numbers for dear life, leading indicators be
damned, right up to the point that everyone realizes the obvious.

It happens every single time. Jobs numbers tell you where you've been, not
where you're going.

~~~
r00fus
It's also depressing that we've moved the goalposts so much in term of
unemployment measurement. We used to report U6, now we only report U3 [1]. How
we calculate U3 is also suspect.

Many businesses don't allow > 30h because they'd have to offer benefits. Cost
of living has skyrocketed while inflation adjusted wages have decreased over
time for 99%.

We are massively undercounting the discouraged and underemployed (can't find
full-time work).

[1] [https://www.hrcapitalist.com/2017/01/know-your-hr-stuff-
the-...](https://www.hrcapitalist.com/2017/01/know-your-hr-stuff-the-
difference-between-u3u5u6-unemployment-rates.html)

------
miohtama
The current US government will do everything to keep the stock market music
playing

\- Fed will start directly buy equity of companies
[https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/business/economy/fed-
coro...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/business/economy/fed-coronavirus-
rate-cut-limited-ammunition.html)

\- Helicopter money [https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-
bern...](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-
bernanke/2016/04/11/what-tools-does-the-fed-have-left-part-3-helicopter-
money/amp/?espv=1)

We might not see a recession, but completely lose of the credibility of US
financial system.

