
The Tipping Point: Most Americans No Longer Are Middle Class - randomname2
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/12/09/459087477/the-tipping-point-most-americans-no-longer-are-middle-class
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dragonwriter
Measuring "class" by income distribution measures like this kind of misses the
point; more accurately this is "Most Americans no longer fit a particular
definition of 'middle income'".

 _Class_ distinctions are about significant qualitative distinctions, not
points on a simple quantitative distribution. A reasonable upper/middle/lower
class distinction could be made where the upper class has capital assets that
they can and do live off the proceeds of while increasing the value and annual
proceeds of the assets, the middle class has capital assets that they could
(whether or not they _do_ \-- they may still work at wage labor) live for at
least some months on by depleting, and the lower classes are entirely
dependent on wage labor (and one could make further distinctions within these
groups).

This would roughly correspond with the traditional ideas of "class".

EDIT: Which is all not to discount the potential significance of an ongoing
increase in income inequality -- which almost certainly has some real impact
in terms of the kind of things that would reasonably define class.

~~~
ryandrake
To me it's a simpler, binary question: You're either rely on your own labor
for a living (in other words, you're N missed paychecks away from zero), or
you don't rely on your own labor. Some people think if their number "N" is
high enough they can call themselves "middle class" to distinguish themselves
from poorer people, but it's a small distinction. At the end of the day, you
either have to work for a living or you don't.

If you have to work for a living, your life is similar to everyone else who
has to work for a living. Sure you may have more toys than others, but the
things you think/worry about from day to day are similar.

If you are in the class that relies on their assets for a living, you think
about entirely different things, and your world view and lifestyle are
entirely different. If you ever get a chance to hang around people like this
or talk with them, do it--it's eye opening. It's like having an alien
encounter.

~~~
kyllo
Physical vs. mental labor (aka blue collar and service vs. white collar) is
what distinguishes lower and middle class and creates the third category.

Lower class = your income relies on your physical labor

Middle class = your income relies on your mental labor

Upper class = your income relies on your capital and others' labor

~~~
beachstartup
i would say there's a 4th class, a working entrepreneur who's basically "all
of the above".

~~~
kyllo
We're talking about social classes, not occupational categories though.

Would you say that an immigrant inner-city convenience store owner and a
bootstrapped SaaS startup founder are the same social class? They're both
working entrepreneurs...

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will_pseudonym
This is a misleading take on the data. A much better analysis would look at
the size of the population who was middle class or upper class. If there is an
equal increase in upper class population for every loss of middle class
population, that just means that our incomes as a population are increasing.
All things equal, both the mean and median would increase in that
circumstance.

And that's what the data looks like to a large degree. The middle class has
shrunk from 61% to 50%, but the upper class has increased by nearly the same
amount, 14% to 21%. Yes, that is a decrease in the middle class-or-better
bucket, but it's nowhere near dire enough to be described as a tipping point.
I agree that the shrinking middle class is something that needs to be
discussed, but this article does the discussion a giant disservice.

~~~
tryitnow
The article is just stating the middle class is shrinking - and inequality is
therefore increasing. And increasing inequality is a problem.

The problem with increasing inequality is not necessarily decreasing mean
incomes. Inequality is a problem because of the increasing class-based
polarization of society, the power differential between different families,
and a host of other factors. All of which can be present and problematic
regardless of whether mean incomes are increasing.

This article isn't even implying that mean incomes are decreasing.

I'm not clear why this article does the discussion a great disservice.

~~~
jeffdavis
But is it inequality from one person to another, or just unequal life stages
for the same individual?

You could imagine a college student from a middle-class background earning
very little from 20-30, then being middle-income from 30-40, then upper-income
from 40-65, then retired until 85.

Their independent life (20+) is 65 years, of which 30 are low-income, 10
middle-income, and 25 high income.

~~~
AnimalMuppet
Valid point, but I believe that you mean that _10_ are low-income.

~~~
jeffdavis
Retirees typically count as low income, so I included the retired years as low
income.

Another consideration is household size. Before, retirees may have been more
likely to live with their children, but now they live more independently.

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jeffdavis
This could also represent a compression of income-earning years. For instance,
if more people spend their twenties earning little, but then their income
jumps up a lot by the time they are 40, they may look middle-income for only a
few years.

I'm not saying this is what's happening, but based on the numbers and
definitions, it's possible.

In general, this kind of snapshot definition trying to capture the middle
class is misleading. You should follow individuals over their life to see
whether they are thriving or struggling.

This is not even a class mobility issue. It's more of a life cycle issue.

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adenadel
Interesting that (since 1971) of the 10% that have "left" the middle class, 7%
have moved upward while 3% have moved downward.

~~~
meric
A bifurcation of society on the order of 4% over 45 years seem slow enough to
not worry about...

~~~
kansface
Sure, if that were the only change.

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tmuir
Where do the 42k and 126k numbers come from? Why do they define the middle
class.

Maybe it varies from page view to page view, but my very first recommended
link at the bottom of the story had a breakdown of middle class bounds in 30
different cities, and as one would expect, middle class incomes vary widely
across those cities.

This article is a perfect example of the meaninglessness of averages in many
cases.

~~~
refurb
They just took 1/2 of the median and 2x the median as cutoffs. You can argue
that's it's arbitrary, but it seems like as good an estimate as any.

~~~
tempestn
2/3 and 2x actually

~~~
capitalsigma
(2/3) and 2 * (2/3) = 4/3

i.e. what would be one standard deviation if income was perfeclty evenly
distributed

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venning
538 breaks this out with more nuance and context here:
[http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/most-americans-arent-
mid...](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/most-americans-arent-middle-class-
anymore/)

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gragas
What I find interesting is the upper-income group is growing faster than the
lower-income group.

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neves
I see people commenting in the technicalities of a middle class definition.
They should be worried with the tendency. As a foreigner, my great admiration
of the American society is that of the Self Made Man. That working hard you
can have a decent life and even become rich. That everybody should have the
same opportunities. Even if this is all a myth, just the belief and the desire
to make it happen, is great.

~~~
throwaway999888
> As a foreigner, my great admiration of the American society is that of the
> Self Made Man. That working hard you can have a decent life and even become
> rich. That everybody should have the same opportunities. Even if this is all
> a myth, just the belief and the desire to make it happen, is great.

So go watch a movie or read a book about it. The actual reality which doesn't
care about your fanciful beliefs will be waiting for when you're ready to
return.

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thecosas
Here's a link to the Georgetown paper they reference as well:
[https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/Good-
Jobs_Full...](https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/Good-
Jobs_Full_Final.pdf)

~~~
jpmattia
The title of the paper is: GOOD JOBS ARE BACK: 2015 College Graduates Are
First in Line

and the first listed funding source is the Lumina Foundation, whose first line
on the about page says:

> Lumina Foundation is an independent, private foundation committed to
> increasing the proportion of Americans with high-quality degrees,
> certificates and other credentials to 60 percent by 2025.

~~~
putlake
Excellent digging -- thanks!

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petergatsby
Half-full headline: "American middle class shrinks, lower-income marginally
increases, upper-income up 50%".

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gizi
If everybody has a college degrees, then all jobs would indeed go to people
with a college degree. But even then, it would still not say anything about
the likelihood to get a job, even if you hold a college degree. "If you get a
college degree, you will get a job" is and has always been a fallacy.

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rdlecler1
These studies need to take into account cost of living in different cities,
which has more variance than it used to. $120k in SF or NY is barely going to
get you in the middle class. If high earnering gains have been made in these
cities, then the actual distribution would be much worse.

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edem
I wouldn't call it a tipping point. If you look at the diagram hard enough you
will see that for example since 2011 the lower class has shrunk and the upper
class have become larger. This means that part of the middle class turned into
upper class!

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fish55
Lots of hocus-pocus in these comments looking for a qualitative measure of
class. The only meaningful definition is quantitative. Do we still need to
explain why? This fact is the fundamental subtext of all journalism and art
since mid 19C.

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xlm1717
Slightly misleading title, would have been more accurate to say "Majority of
Americans No Longer Are Middle Class". The current breakdown is basically
49.9% Middle Class, 50.1% not. That's a long way from "most".

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tmaly
Middle class is an elusive term. How much would someone living and working in
New York City have to make to be considered middle class verse someone living
in say Detroit?

Exemptions at the federal level seem to overlook this fact.

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davidjnelson
Wouldn't it make more sense to use the ratio of income to housing costs in the
analysis instead of raw income numbers? Houses can easily be 10-20x as
expensive depending on where in the us you live.

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la6470
126k for Silicon Valley upper class rofl rofl rofl

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gweinberg
Fewer poor and middle class, more rich. This is good news.

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mtgx
Yet most Americans have no problem supporting either an asshole billionaire or
someone who thinks it's "their turn to be president" and is supported by Wall
Street billionaires (the same people responsible for the 2008 economic crash).

Most people don't seem to know what's good for them.

~~~
mikeash
Clinton is supported by about 50% of Democrats. Trump is supported by about
25% of Republicans. That doesn't add up to anywhere close to "most Americans."

~~~
jazzyk
Perhaps. But chances are that these two will become their parties' candidates
and then most Americans _will_ have to choose between them.

The US has so many smart, hard working people, we deserve better.

~~~
mikeash
I really, really doubt that we'll be forced to choose between Clinton and
Trump. Clinton, yes, but the Republicans aren't _that_ insane.

In any case, saying that a broken system forces us to choose the lesser of two
evils is quite different from saying that most Americans support one of these
two candidates.

~~~
jazzyk
I totally understood the difference, I was trying to say that it doesn't
really matter. We need to fix the broken system, but I am not aware of any
candidates having any workable ideas...

~~~
mikeash
It matters in terms of what conclusions you can draw about the American people
(the original comment up there was attempting to use widespread support for
these candidates as evidence that Americans don't know what's good for them),
and in terms of what's required to fix the problem. I agree that as far as the
outcome goes it doesn't matter much.

