

Oscar Halo: Academy Awards and the Matthew Effect - mavelikara
http://anand.typepad.com/datawocky/2009/02/oscar-halo-academy-awards-and-the-matthew-effect.html

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aneesh
This is great! I wish more people did analyses like these.

One nitpick: intuitively, I'm not comfortable with the idea that a 20% chance
for each nominated movie is a reasonable prior. There is a ranking of the 5
nominations implied by the voting process (<http://tr.im/gEYg>). However, not
being very familiar with Academy Award voting, I'm not sure if this data is
ever publicly released. Anyone?

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datawock
To clarify on the prior: It's not always 1/5 -- it's 1/(number of nominations
for that category-year). In some years there have been fewer than 5
nominations for certain categories, which this model takes into account.

I do agree it would be interesting to bias it by the preferential ballots from
the nominations process. Unfortunately I couldn't find that data anywhere...

