
How to Be an Expert in a Changing World (2014) - headalgorithm
http://www.paulgraham.com/ecw.html
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joncrane
The problem is, in order to operate as human beings, we have to assume the
vast majority of our assumptions about the world are solid. For example,
gravity will continue to push objects down in a fairly predictable way, the
air we breathe will have a certain amount of oxygen, etc.

It's extremely difficult to operate, survive even, without making a vast
number of assumptions.

So there's another, meta-level of thought that's required where we have to
assign a confidence to each assumption. For example, I assume my car is going
to start each morning, my laptop is going to power up each day, etc. But I
also realize there's a nonzero probability that my car will break down or my
laptop won't power on.

It's incredibly mentally taxing to constantly re-evaluate one's assumptions,
so it's incredibly important to triage which assumptions I should question at
any given juncture.

Most people give up and rely on their assumptions, which leads to a lot of
social problems. Old age also severely impacts a person's ability to question
assumptions. I don't want to get political here, but some people and
organizations profit mightily from this phenomenon, much to the detriment of
society as whole.

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brad0
In short, look for changes in the world and see how they change once well held
beliefs about said world.

There was a lecture I watched years ago that specified the different areas
that change that can allow startups to do well.

I remember Technology and Law. Possibly Social as well. Does anyone know what
I’m referring to and what those areas are? I believe there were 5 of them.

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PakG1
Political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental? PESTLE?

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brad0
Yeah I think that’s the one! Where did you find this? Is it business 101
stuff?

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PakG1
Yeah, business strategy MBA kinda stuff. Although honestly not sure how useful
it really is. I guess it helps you have a broad checklist of things you should
look at.

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commonsense1234
i really like the people's part. even if something ain't earth shattering. you
can predict if something will work by measuring those important factors
(earnest, energetic, independent minded).

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gnlnx
I was hoping for an example of a startup he has chosen to not fund because the
people didn't meet that criteria but maybe the idea was seemingly bad in a
good way

