

How the FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast Model Works - dthal
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast-model-works/

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Kortaggio

      "A good model should be probabilistic, not deterministic."
    

This is probably the most important thing I've learned about modelling. One of
the biggest dangers in sharing results from a statistical analysis with
laypeople is that they will interpret the exact numerical answer as evidence
of certainty in your predictions. Often times it's as important how a model is
presented as how a model is built.

