
The Okinawa missiles of October 1962 - sehugg
http://thebulletin.org/okinawa-missiles-october8826
======
arethuza
"Why target non-belligerent countries?"

Worth noting that until not long before the Cuban missile crisis there was
only one single unconditional plan for the US fighting a nuclear war: the
first version of SIOP -

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_Integrated_Operational_...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_Integrated_Operational_Plan#The_first_SIOP)

This targeted the Soviets, China, Warsaw Pact countries and even the likes of
Yugoslavia and Albania. There was an exchange between General Power and David
Shoup, Commandant of the Marine Corps, that went as follows:

 _" What would happen if Beijing was not fighting; was there an option to
leave Chinese targets out of the attack plan?" Power was reported to have said
that he hoped no one would think of that "because it would really screw up the
plan"—that is, the plan was supposed to be executed as a whole. Apparently
Shoup then observed that "any plan that kills millions of Chinese when it
isn't even their war is not a good plan. This is not the American way."_

Edit: For anyone interested in the Cuban Missile Crisis I can strongly
recommend "One Minute To Midnight" by Michael Dobbs - it is full of episodes
like this (some even more alarming).

~~~
paulmd
General Power was well-known to be _batshit fucking insane_. Even General
LeMay thought he was unstable and aggressive, and LeMay himself was the guy
who oversaw the war against the Japanese Home Islands. When the guy who burned
the best part of a million people alive with firebombings and then nuked the
remains thinks you're a bit of a loose cannon, well...

He is often viewed as the likely inspiration for Gen. Buck Turgidson in the
film Dr. Strangelove. A quote from Power, when the RAND Corporation raised the
proposal of a counterforce strike instead of striking at Soviet cities:

    
    
      "Restraint? Why are you so concerned with saving their lives? The whole idea
      is to kill the bastards. At the end of the war if there are two Americans 
      and one Russian left alive, we win!"
    

In the words of Gen. Horace Wade, a subordinate who served under Gen Powers:

    
    
      I used to worry about General Power. I used to worry that General Power 
      was not stable. I used to worry about the fact that he had control over
      so many weapons and weapon systems and could, under certain conditions,
      launch the force. Back in the days before we had real positive control 
      [i.e., PAL locks], SAC had the power to do a lot of things, and it
      was in his hands, and he knew it.
    

SAC pushed back very strongly against this intrusion. The first Permissive
Action Links were installed in 1959 and the bulk of them in 1962, but the
8-digit security codes were set to "0000 0000" until around 1977, because SAC
was afraid that they would be unable to fire the weapons if needed.

It's a goddamn miracle we didn't go over the edge, either accidentally or with
those guys at the controls. In one case, a B-52 crashed in North Carolina in
1961. The bomb went through its full arming sequence, being stopped only by a
single low-voltage switch. That switch later became known for being unreliable
and failing to interrupt its signal properly.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1961_Goldsboro_B-52_crash](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1961_Goldsboro_B-52_crash)

The Russians had some close calls of their own, notably when the sun glinted
off the clouds and tripped their launch warnings during ABLE ARCHER 83.

~~~
wnevets
I wonder how much of this was a scare tactic. In theory the USSR would be more
apprehensive if they believed the man in control of the US weapons was a bit
crazy.

~~~
arethuza
That was Nixon's "Madman Theory":

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory)

~~~
VonGuard
Precisely. Comes from games theory: if the other guy is thought to be
irrational, it really backs you into a bit of a corner, playing it as safe as
possible.

Nixon had bombers flying to the edge of Soviet airspace, 24/7, all fully
loaded, all to make the Russians think he was insanely aggressive.

~~~
iSnow
The obvious problem here is of course the other side might fully believe you
are so unhinged that an attack is only a matter of time (not "if" but "when")
and launch a pre-emptive attack at you.

With the Soviet memory of Hitler's shenanigans, the madman tactic was
incredibly destabilizing.

------
Mithaldu
The entire thing is worth a read, but here's a short summary:

John Bordne claims that missile launch crews in okinawa received nuclear
missile launch orders via calm encoded voice comms, which seemed suspect,
since they were given at defcon 2, not defcon 1. According to the claim they
ended up contacting the sender of the codes and requested codes to either
stand down or upgrade defcon, at which point the sender issued stand down with
considerable stress in his voice. Bordne also claims that to his knowledge no
real consequences for this ever happened.

He's asking for corroboration to help with his own old memories and to
straighten out history.

~~~
rtkwe
I'd also include that they received the coded message twice showing that it's
unlikely it was misheard or misread on either end. That was my initial
reaction/theory, that the code was close to the confirmed order but one side
messed up some how. With a second confirmation it seems like the 'NOP' (dummy)
code either accidentally matched the LAUNCH code or the correct code was given
to (or procured by) the major who transmitted the mid-shift messages.

It's an interesting question of how do you ensure you never accidentally
transmit the correct code without the sender knowing the correct code and
being able to command a launch single-handedly. Even if the code is really
long, generating random NOP codes doesn't give the level of safety I'd like
when accidental collisions can end the world.

~~~
mikeash
Maybe the book was sorted alphabetically, such that the code for LAUNCH
MISSILES was listed next to the code for LUNCH TIME or something.

~~~
rtkwe
My understanding is that the correct launch authorization code would be locked
in a safe until the command post had received a message authorizing them to
launch. It's safes and authorization confirmations all the way down as I
understand it.

~~~
jjoonathan
I am sure the system was designed to resist intentional manipulation by
intermediates, but what about plain old telephone-game mishaps? If LAUNCH and
LUNCH TIME are represented by one-time-pad blobs that are right next to each
other on a list, it doesn't matter how many two-person-locks or feet of steel
prevent the operator from learning which blob is the LAUNCH blob because an
off-by-one mistake is still easy to make as ever.

~~~
rtkwe
I was saying that the launch codes would only be available if the CP had
received their own launch codes and there wouldn't be a list with the launch
codes and lunch codes to make that error.

~~~
mikeash
The question is whether the codes were sufficiently far apart that you
couldn't stumble onto one by accident, or whether they were similar enough
that you could generate LAUNCH MISSILES by accident with a typo, even if you
never went near the safe and had no idea what your message actually meant.

------
apaprocki
Interesting -- a prior 2012 story relating to Bordne. I guess in hind sight he
knew more than he was letting onto then if this all turns out to have some
truth to it.

[http://www.japantimes.co.jp/life/2012/07/08/general/okinawas...](http://www.japantimes.co.jp/life/2012/07/08/general/okinawas-
first-nuclear-missile-men-break-silence/)

Bordne also recounted some of it earlier this year in March but it didn't seem
to get picked up much:

[http://japanfocus.org/events/view/249](http://japanfocus.org/events/view/249)

edit: Bordne himself posted on another site that this was the crew

    
    
      Crew #1 (Wave Makers) (1960 through 1963) Launch Officer - Capt. William Bassett
      Crew Chief SSgt William “Bill” Voorhees
      Mech. #1 A2C Eugene “Geno” Boozer
      Mech. #2 A2C John “JC” Bordne (Guest book signer #135)
      Mech. #3 A2C Michael “Mike” Schaubach
      Mech. #4 A2C William “Bill” O’Hara (Guest book signer #25)
      Mech. #5 A2C Richard “Rick” Marshal
    

[http://www.mace-b.com/38tmw/kadena/Kadena-2.htm](http://www.mace-b.com/38tmw/kadena/Kadena-2.htm)

------
medymed
Whenever I can spare the time, I try to make mobile apps and computer games. I
think it can add value to the world.

But compared to calling the shots in the dark on a imminent nuclear holocaust?
Geez louise. If this story is true, this guy did far, far more for the world
than any app or gizmo I could hope to see developed by me or others. It seems
our destructive capabilities (which are practically infinite) in some sense
far outweigh our creative capabilities. It's too bad nobody throws a few
million dollars at this guy or his family like money is thrown at promising
startups. Even if having saved the world is a sunk benefit (a la sunk cost),
it would be well-deserved.

Equally interesting, his Soviet counterpart:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasili_Arkhipov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasili_Arkhipov)

~~~
arethuza
It would be good to have a monument somewhere with the names of as many people
as possible who acted sanely during those dangerous days - the least we can do
is remember them and take it as a lesson.

~~~
TeMPOraL
I am actually starting to sort-of observe the Stanislav Petrov Day[0] - 26th
of September. It seems worth it to add to the list the Vasili Arkhipov Day,
the 27th of October, and John Bordne day, the 28th of October. Maybe we should
actually make a list of such days, in memory of people who actually saved (a
big part of) the world, or had a significant contribution towards its
continued prosperity.

Come to think of it, today's the 27th. Happy Vasili Arkhipov Day, HN!

[0] - [http://blog.jaibot.com/there-is-a-
button/](http://blog.jaibot.com/there-is-a-button/)

------
Tossrock
Perhaps counterintuitively, but I actually find this somewhat reassuring -
another example of regular soldiers declining to initiate a nuclear war. Yeah,
the magnitude of the mistake is awful, but the final failsafe (ie, human
conscience) seems to work. See also Vasili Arkhipov, Stanislav Petrov, etc.

~~~
Pinckney
But consider survivorship bias.

~~~
JackFr
It seems more like the anthropic principal than survivorship bias -- since
we're here talking about it, we must live in a universe where the fail-safes
work.

~~~
emiliobumachar
I don't think that even total nuclear war would actually wipe out human life
on Earth. Keep in mind, 0.1% of a billion people is a whole million people.

------
dabeeeenster
For those interested, the Eric Schlosser book is a superb, in depth look at
the entire history of nuclear control. Very very good read.

[http://www.amazon.co.uk/Command-Control-Eric-
Schlosser/dp/01...](http://www.amazon.co.uk/Command-Control-Eric-
Schlosser/dp/0141037911/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8)

------
AUmrysh
As many times as the world has come close to nuclear war and mutually assured
destruction since the end of WW2, it's actually one of the most reassuring
things about humanity that people refused orders to fire missiles every time.

I'm always reminded of "Talking to god..."[1] when I read about these close
calls with nuclear weapons. The most important paragraph in the entire short
story is the following: "The only ones who reach level two are those who learn
to accept and to live with their most dangerous knowledge. Each and every
individual in such a species must eventually become capable of destroying
their entire species at any time. Yet they must learn to control themselves to
the degree that they can survive even such deadly insight. And frankly,
they’re the only ones we really want to see leaving their solar systems.
Species that haven’t achieved that maturity could not be allowed to infect the
rest of the universe, but fortunately that has never required my intervention.
The knowledge always does the trick".

1:
[http://www.fullmoon.nu/articles/art.php?id=tal](http://www.fullmoon.nu/articles/art.php?id=tal)

~~~
jlaporte
_As many times as the world has come close to nuclear war and mutually assured
destruction since the end of WW2, it 's actually one of the most reassuring
things about humanity that people refused orders to fire missiles every time_

If you accept the account in the linked story, this episode itself is a
counterexample:

"...the situation of one launch crew was particularly stark: All its targets
were in Russia. Its launch officer, a lieutenant, did not acknowledge the
authority of the senior field officer—i.e. Capt. Bassett—to override the now-
repeated order of the major. The second launch officer at that site reported
to Bassett that the lieutenant had ordered his crew to proceed with the launch
of its missiles..."

------
autobahn
Just makes me so very, very glad that the right decisions were made by so many
people in those trying times.

I'm sure there are plenty of individual heroes whose small contributions
individually and collectively prevented nuclear war that we'll never hear
about.

------
ohitsdom
Absolutely incredible. I really hope the Freedom of Information Act requests
get somewhere and we get to hear how a screw up of this magnitude happened.

------
ck2
But don't worry, all the people in charge of our nuclear missiles now are
constantly caught cheating at their tests.

I believe I read recently the way the military solved this huge scandal is by
making the tests easier and simply pass/fail.

[http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2014/01/30/22508088-92-nucle...](http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2014/01/30/22508088-92-nuclear-
missile-officers-implicated-in-cheating-scandal-air-force-says)

[http://www.defenseone.com/management/2014/04/after-
cheating-...](http://www.defenseone.com/management/2014/04/after-cheating-
scandal-air-force-switches-pass-fail-nuclear-missileers/83173/)

------
sveit
I contact my U.S. Representative requesting the Air Force release records
pertaining to the incident. We need to know that facts.

------
MaysonL
Interesting coincidence – TAC Missileers, "a US Air Force, Cold War veterans
group, whose members proudly served our country, as part of the Mace or
Matador cruise missile programs." (quoted from their website) is having a
reunion next week in Orlando, Florida.

------
USNetizen
As someone who was stationed on Okinawa some years later, I find this quite
interesting and had seen even a few parallels to this story during my time
there, albeit not with nuclear warheads involved.

------
kensai
Argh. I wish the game "East vs West" was a reality to test all these things!
:D

------
ivan_ah
cf.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident)

------
meshko
ok, hold on. Could these 1960s era missiles really be retargeted like this? I
always assumed that they were programmed for a single target and changing the
target was a big deal.

~~~
TorKlingberg
The article does not mention any retargeting.

~~~
meshko
Didn't it talk about transmission specifying targets to hit?

