
Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained - doppp
https://www.axios.com/olympic-official-tokyo-cancellation-coronavirus-contained-4ca69a5a-b573-4ec5-8714-959d04ae8592.html
======
rococode
I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first
started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's
been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to
think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks
now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact.

There are just too many factors in favor of uncontained worldwide spread at
this point - within the 1st week of reporting it already looked like China's
numbers were incomplete (and potentially manipulated) and the scale was
greatly underestimated.

Untraceable transmission all over the place, relatively low-traffic countries
like Nepal and Sri Lanka seeing cases very early on, extremely long incubation
periods with airborne transmission without symptoms, false negative tests with
people either catching the virus after leaving quarantine or not testing
positive (both really bad signs), governments demonstrating weak and
ineffective containment of potentially infected travelers (Japan: "no symptoms
so they can go home!"), more infections than SARS in a small fraction of the
time, the US only testing ~400 people thus far, entire families in Wuhan being
wiped out. Basically everything is in place for this to be a serious pandemic.

I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that
dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments
likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut
down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems
arising. Given a couple weeks, sure, but by then it will be too late.

As an aside, BNO has been doing an excellent job of posting timely and sourced
updates that make it easy to keep up to date with every new confirmed case
(scroll down to the Timeline section):

[https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-
coronavirus...](https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-
cases/)

Hopefully I can look back at this comment in a couple months and chuckle at my
paranoia!

~~~
tebuevd
> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries
> that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian
> governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major
> cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without
> major problems arising. Given a couple weeks, sure, but by then it will be
> too late.

It may well _seem_ that way in retrospect. When it does, just remember that
those same authoritarian governments are the ones who played down the threat,
lied, covered up to save face, imprisoned whistleblowers, and refused to let
international experts in.

~~~
asiachick
Do you really think it will be any different in the USA or Europe? Will the
governments ban conventions? Close restaurants and bars? Shut down shopping
malls? Or will instead, in the interest of "the economy" (ie, money) keep too
light a hand on things.

Basically I don't expect the west to be able to react to this any better if it
gets big. Their populations are uncontrollable (for mostly good reason) but in
this particular case that feature will turn out to be bug.

~~~
littlestymaar
> Do you really think it will be any different in the USA or Europe? Will the
> governments ban conventions? Close restaurants and bars? Shut down shopping
> malls?

Look at Italy right now.

> Or will instead, in the interest of "the economy" (ie, money) keep too light
> a hand on things.

Sure, but this has nothing to do with authoritarian states vs democracy.
You'll find a ton of authoritarian states doing exactly the same. It's just a
matter of who's the ruling class, and in most places in the world (100% of
liberal democracies but also most authoritarian states), it's the business
owners, so of course they will try and save their business before their
people.

> Basically I don't expect the west to be able to react to this any better if
> it gets big. Their populations are uncontrollable (for mostly good reason)
> but in this particular case that feature will turn out to be bug.

Western people aren't uncontrollable. The one who are, are the one who are
pissed of by their plutocratic governments and have lost all faith in them.
I'm pretty convinced that Switzerland will be fine, and I'm not surprised
Italy is in the same kind of shit than Iran.

I'm French, and we've been lucky so far, but I expect chaos when it's going to
start. The government has long lost all political legitimity here, and people
absolutely distrust them, so I don't think they will not peacefully comply to
government attempt to limit the propagation.

~~~
bitreality
Here's the thing with Italy. They're the first Western country to get a major
outbreak. They're being told to do things and assuming that it will stop the
virus. But the truth is, containment does not actually stop the virus. It
simply slows it.

When or if this hits the US or elsewhere in Europe, and it becomes obvious
that despite the quarantine in Italy, the virus still continued to spread,
they will question the measures being taken. As time goes on, the West will
become critical of government response and may be difficult to control.

In China when the government tells its citizens to do something, they just do
it. They don't ask why. They don't deliberate on whether it's the correct
choice. They simply follow the directions. In the West, everything is up for
debate. People don't like to be told what to do.

~~~
gioele
> Here's the thing with Italy. They're the first Western country to get a
> major outbreak.

Here is the other thing with Italy: differently from other neighbor countries,
they have been testing people without symptoms.

Numbers: until February the 24th, Italy performed ~8500 tests (mostly on
people without symptoms, but that were in contact with confirmed SARS-
CoV-2-infected patients), while UK did ~6500 (focused on people with
influenza-like symptoms), Germany ~1000 and France ~500.

This is better from a safety point of view (you get to discover all
problematic patients earlier and you can quarantine them before they spread
the infection even more). But is makes "your stats look worse" (cit. The wire)
because now you look like the epicenter of the infection.

Guess what? The testing method has now been changed ("aligned") to what the
other countries are doing, so that the numbers do not look that much worse.

Source: [https://www.ilpost.it/2020/02/25/tamponi-coronavirus-
italia-...](https://www.ilpost.it/2020/02/25/tamponi-coronavirus-italia-regno-
unito-francia/)

~~~
kaffeemitsahne
This is amusing to hear in light of all the "saving face" talk about China.

------
noodlesUK
As someone tangentially attached to the sports community, the olympics is
already a bit screwed up anyway, simply because the sports seasons (and thus
the qualification pathway) for many events in the games have been
significantly disrupted by the coronavirus. Many athletes who were in touching
distance of qualifying will not be able to, and other athletes will be sent in
their stead (if it happens at all) Olympic qualification in most sports is
_extremely_ complicated, and this is having a serious effect.

That being said, sport is not so important (imho) that public safety should be
put at risk, and cancelling the games (or postponing them) would seem a
sensible option if things continue to get worse.

~~~
jfkebwjsbx
It is not your humble opinion. Sports are just entertainment nowadays. Lowest
priority.

~~~
yunruse
You’re not wrong, but you have a bit of a dismal look at it. Sports, like
other forms of entertainment, are a sign of culture, and culture is the
touchstone of a good workforce. Just like it’s important to take short breaks
in the office, even small amounts of entertainment is important to keep us
happy and focused. Large events, such as the Olympics and Oscars, give a
pattern to the years, something to talk about and look forward to. They
provide cohesion and fraternity. The Olympics staying up isn’t a higher
priority than health, but it’s a mighty sign of things going wrong when
they’re not being hosted.

Plus, y’know, a lot of problems have been solved, so these kind of events
provide jobs and boost local and global economies.

~~~
jfkebwjsbx
To be honest, I have never seen sports as "culture". Neither the Oscars. They
are just PR events in this day and age.

By the way, hosting the Olympics does _not_ boost the local economy. Quite the
opposite, in fact, at least in many cases. They are a heavy loss and increase
in debt for almost every city that did it, as well as detrimental for the
environment overall. Governments do it as a long term investment in publicity.

~~~
unethical_ban
Well there is the big difference - you don't see sports as culture. What is
culture to you?

~~~
jfkebwjsbx
Education, science, art, "enlightenment"...

Giving awards in a posh ceremony to commercial movies and running very fast
for a medal does not sound like any of those to me.

Yes, sports are a very big deal in many countries. Fancy social gatherings
too. Neither means necessarily "culture".

------
01100011
I'm curious how other folks who work at large tech shops in the valley feel
about working from home for a while. There is nearly zero reason for me to
show up at work. I can do nearly everything from home, often better. At work,
I'm in a large, open building surrounded by thousands of people.

Am I overreacting? I know there's a good chance we're all going to get
COVID-19, but if I can delay it a bit, I lessen the hit to our soon-to-be
overworked heath care system and preserve resources for those who can't hide.

I think those of us who have the ability to work from home for a while might
want to consider agitating for it to be official policy for the next month or
so.

~~~
Barrin92
>I'm curious how other folks who work at large tech shops in the valley feel
about working from home for a while.

Am in the UK and not the US but given that I'm healthy and relatively young I
don't really see the point. This disease is scary in the aggregate, i.e it
imposes huge economic costs. The average case of it is basically having flu
symptoms, and I never stayed at home unless I got sick during bad flu seasons.

I'm not really sure why people paint being infected with this like the bubonic
plague or something, there is already a bunch of corona viruses raging around
all the time anyway.

edit: lots of downvotes because I don't lock myself in because of a corona
virus? People here seem to love hysteria a these days.

~~~
vanniv
This is a more-deadly-than-average coronavirus, or so it seems.

It is really hard to tell, because it is still very new outside of China, and
you can't trust any of the data coming from there -- so we won't really know
for 2 more weeks, until the first big round of cases from open countries end
in either recovery or death. That said, the Chinese statistics put median time
between first symptoms and death (amongst fatal cases) at only 8 days -- and
the 600 cases from the cruise ship are all older than that now, with 3 deaths
as of yesterday, which suggests that the 2% mortality rate being bandied about
is probably not wildly wrong. (It might be 1% or 3%, but probably not 10%+
like fearmongers are saying or 34% like MERS was -- unless fatalities from the
cruise ship are being suppressed or there is something special about that
group, or, I guess, if the median of 8 days turns out to be wildly, wildly
wrong)

Concern seems highly warranted. Vigilance seems warranted. The "ZOMG we all
gonna die!" going on does not.

But it sure does get ratings and score political points.

Edit: I have been using
[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
to view graphs and tables of the coronavirus data chopped a bunch of different
ways. They list sources for all of it, though I haven't vetted the sources.

One of their charts shows a breakdown of closed cases into % cured and % dead.
That is currently at 92%/8%, with the recovery rate continually improving, but
flattening out. That graph makes it look like the mortality rate may end up
higher than 2% -- but still probably not radically so, and we really are
extrapolating from very little data.

~~~
_-___________-_
> One of their charts shows a breakdown of closed cases into % cured and %
> dead. That is currently at 92%/8%, with the recovery rate continually
> improving, but flattening out. That graph makes it look like the mortality
> rate may end up higher than 2% -- but still probably not radically so, and
> we really are extrapolating from very little data.

I think there's a really large number of people who have been infected who
will never be a "case", so I think 2% is still really high. Just look at e.g.
Italy where there was no awareness of it spreading until people were already
dying - meaning that it had been spreading for some time. Given that a large
number of people seem to be asymptomatic or have mild illness, it's highly
likely that many other people were infected in the same "cluster" and never
knew.

------
aazaa
This same tough decision-making process will play out thousands of times in
the next few months.

Any event that draws an international crowd poses an elevated risk. You can't
know where people have been or what kind of screening process has been
applied. If you're planning on attending a tech conference with an
international crowd, now is the time to reconsider.

The possibility of asymptomatic transmission through casual contact poses
unprecedented challenges. As does the low number of cases on which to draw
information from outside of China.

The problem right now is the extremely poor quality on the information around
the disease. Maybe this thing will behave like other infections and "burn
itself out" as summer in the northern hemisphere approaches. Maybe it won't.
There's quite literally no way to know.

~~~
bitreality
The disease has spread in places like Singapore and Thailand, which are warmer
in February than most Northern Hemisphere cities are in summer. The notion
that everything will just die down come Spring is blindingly optimistic.

~~~
saiya-jin
How do those place fare with regular flu? Parents optimism comes from the
notion that in colder climates, there is almost no flu during warm months.

~~~
senordevnyc
Influenza is a totally different virus though. That said, other corona viruses
do tend to display seasonality but experts are uncertain about this latest
one:

[https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/what-
happ...](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/what-happens-to-
coronavirus-covid-19-in-warmer-spring-temperatures/)

------
reustle
For those of you curious about the state of COVID-19 in Japan, I created an
open source tracker that has gained a lot of momentum.

Source Code:
[https://github.com/reustle/covid19japan/](https://github.com/reustle/covid19japan/)

Tracker: [https://covid19japan.com](https://covid19japan.com)

Twitter Thread:
[https://twitter.com/reustle/status/1229313493808992257](https://twitter.com/reustle/status/1229313493808992257)

~~~
ImaCake
Thankyou. Nothing like well displayed data to shine sunlight on everyone's
paranoia :)

------
ng7j5d9
It's already been established that hosting the Olympics in the current fashion
is generally a money loser for the host city. All of those resources expended
to build state-of-the-art facilities, housing, transportation, etc...with rosy
ideas of how they might be repurposed after the Olympics....which generally
don't come to fruition.

And that's when the Olympics actually occur, and the host city is able to gain
some revenue from visitors coming and spending a considerable amount of money.

If Tokyo builds the required infrastructure and then no one comes, I've got to
think future host cities will re-think this madness.

Personally I'd like to see a distributed Olympics, with mostly pre-existing
facilities being used. Maybe swimming happens in Copenhagen, basketball in LA,
beach volleyball in Phuket, etc. Maybe some events could be held in smaller
countries or cities that had never been able to complete for a full Olympics
before. A larger percentage of the world population would be local to some
part of the Olympics, perhaps for once highlighting sameness rather than
differences.

Or screw it, we could just let dumb governments keep throwing piles of money
at this nonsense.

~~~
mcgrath_sh
The LA Olympics are, from what I recall from a Bill Simmons podcast[0], going
to be one of the cheapest to host in history. Salt Lake City also continues to
use most venues from the 2002 games[1].

Some of the highlights from the podcast on the 2028 LA Olympics:

* Only major construction that is occurring is an upgraded temporary track in the Coliseum, renovation on USC’s swimming arena, and building a train line to the airport (which, IIRC, was in the long term plans already and is just being re-prioritized). The track from the Coliseum will be broken down and split among various high schools who can benefit.

* There are some additional temporary structures going up, such as bleachers for beach volleyball.

* The LA games are doing what you suggested and are using existing venues for almost everything. UCLA dorms are going to be the Olympic Village and USC dorms will host media. USC, UCLA, MLS, NFL, and NHL/NBA arenas will be used to host various events. There is no brand new permanent construction.

[0] [https://m.soundcloud.com/the-bill-simmons-podcast/mayor-
eric...](https://m.soundcloud.com/the-bill-simmons-podcast/mayor-eric-
garcetti-and-casey-wasserman-on-landing-the-2028-summer-olympics-ep-243)

[1] [https://www.deseret.com/2017/2/4/20605641/utah-s-secret-
sauc...](https://www.deseret.com/2017/2/4/20605641/utah-s-secret-sauce-keeps-
olympic-venues-viable-15-years-after-games)

------
AareyBaba
Johns Hopkins has an world map with daily update of current coronavirus cases

[https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

~~~
maxden
I would have expected to see Russia reporting more than two cases given the
travel between the two countries.

~~~
jacquesm
Russia is not the most transparent country when it comes to such news, to put
it mildly.

------
JohnJamesRambo
This may seem silly but this is one of my first confirmations about how
serious this is.

~~~
TheSpiceIsLife
Does anyone know if ya can catch this thing twice?

Or are we expecting it to mutate similar to cold n flu viruse?

~~~
roywiggins
Seems like yes, but not because it mutates, it's just that the immune response
can be weak. Probably more of a risk for people with weak immune systems to
start with.

Everything I've read suggests that Coronaviruses are more stable, genetically
speaking, than the flu.

[https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/its-
possible-...](https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/its-possible-for-
coronavirus-to-reinfect-recovered-patients-chinese-expert-warns/)

~~~
DoingIsLearning
> Coronaviruses are more stable, genetically speaking, than the flu.

By more stable you mean less likely to mutate?

Would that mean a vaccine would be more effective in protecting against
covid19 than a regular seasonaly changing flu?

~~~
roywiggins
As far as I can tell, yes:

> Coronavirus non-structural proteins provide extra fidelity to replication,
> because they confer a proofreading function, which is lacking in RNA-
> dependent RNA polymerase enzymes alone

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Replication](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Replication)

------
nabla9
Coronavirus will burn itself out in May when temperatures rise. Just like
common flu virus, increasing sunlight and humidity will stop the spread of the
virus during summer.

Source: professor John Nicholls a clinical professor in pathology at the
University of Hong Kong and expert on coronaviruses had a conference call
where he explained most likely outcome.

transcript here:
[https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTiiquwLa6tT-g/confere...](https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTiiquwLa6tT-g/conference-
call-coronavirus-expert)

~~~
bognition
Yeah its pretty wild to compare the rates of infection and mortality inside
main land china with the rest of the world. The high infection/death rates
aren't showing up in the rest of the world. The interesting follow question is
why?

It could be a number of things, my guess is a sampling issue. Given how
secretive the Chinese govt is we'll likely never know.

~~~
bitreality
You're grossly misinformed. The China outbreak was so strong initially because
they had no idea what they were dealing with. The spread and infection is
invisible for weeks. There are many people spreading Coronavirus as we speak
without knowing a thing.

Korea, Iran and Italy all have major outbreaks which only revealed themselves
this week, but likely began 2-3 weeks prior. Iran has clearly no idea how many
cases are in its country, its numbers are 15 deaths and <100 cases. That's
over 15% death rate. Makes no sense compared to all other reported number,
their real total cases are likely over 1000.

------
Tepix
The significance of the 2020 Olympic games cannot be overstated. All of Japan
has been preparing for this for far more than a decade. Just look at stuff
from early 2010s regarding topic such as 8K TV and 5G networks. They have been
working towards this singular event where Tokyo will be center at the world
stage. It would be tragic (but understandable) to see it cancelled. I hope
they can do it a year later instead or something like that.

~~~
RivieraKid
I don't understand why would they care so much about it... it doesn't really
matter.

~~~
admiral33
Sounds like you've never been to a dinner party.

------
chime
For anyone looking for more, try the subreddits /r/Covid19 (scientific/medical
info), /r/CoronaVirus (maintstream news), and /r/China_Flu (social posts).

~~~
LeoPanthera
I'm not sure I trust Reddit, or indeed any social media, for reliable
reporting on such an emotive topic. There's already so much misinformation and
conspiracy theories about the disease.

~~~
chime
I agree. That's why I listed the 3 different subs with different moderation
criteria. I would much prefer to hear from someone like Dr. Cole than a random
anonymous tweet:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/f9dbeq/covid19_wha...](https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/f9dbeq/covid19_what_do_we_have_to_fear_from_a_pandemic/)

> Dr Jennifer Cole is an Associate Fellow at RUSI. She was previously Senior
> Research Fellow, Resilience and Emergency Management from 2007-2017. Her
> research interests focus on international threats from emerging infectious
> diseases and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and the UK’s emergency
> preparedness and response capabilities, with particular regard to CBRN(E),
> pandemics, flood management, cyber security, resilient communications and
> the role of training and exercising in resilience.

> [https://rusi.org/people/cole](https://rusi.org/people/cole)

------
blhack
Ive been somewhat surprised at the coverage or lack thereof that this story
has been getting on HN.

This virus is disrupting manufacturing from China in a major way. It seems
like one of the biggest tech stories of the last decade at least, and for some
reason the stories about it seem to drop off of the front page really quickly.

Are people flagging these or something for not being tech? Any of my network
who does manufacturing is pretty concerned right now about supply chain.

~~~
jacquesm
> Are people flagging these or something for not being tech

Could be, or it could be because they don't want to fan the flames of panic or
it could be because they'd rather not know.

------
xvilka
Why not just postpone it for the same time next year? It's still possible and
not a complete cancellation either.

~~~
bamboozled
I think it would be better to postpone it to a cooler time of the year also.

Not sure if you've visited Tokyo in summer, but it's a ridiculous time to be
having it.

~~~
xvilka
Yes, I have been in Tokyo in summer, it's surprisingly hot and humid.

------
lqs469
80 years ago, in 1940, Tokyo hosted the Summer Olympics for the first time,
but it was canceled due to the outbreak of WWII and Japan had invaded China.

80 years after, in 2020, Tokyo Summer Olympics could be canceled due to
outbreak of coronavirus from China.

~~~
t-writescode
Coincidence?!

Yes.

------
burgerquizz
Are the effect of the coronavirus on the stock market could be opportunity for
investing?

The SP500 went down 8% this past 4 days. I'm wondering if that will go lower
those next days.

I have a bit amount of money on the side, I didn't know where to invest. Would
now be a good opportunity to lump sum all the money, or would you Dollar Cost
Average?

Anyone else with the same dilemma, and would have more arguments?

~~~
jstewartmobile
the vulture approach to investing tends to be materially profitable yet
karmically ruinous

~~~
pradn
Another way to look at it is that you're optimistic that the crisis will be
resolved.

------
rurban
Thee next big cancellation will be the Cannes Film Festival, with ~40.000
foreigners invading this town for two weeks. This will cost a lot of money.

------
chewz
> Japan’s leaders are so out of touch with the lives of ordinary people that
> they seem genuinely uninterested in their plight. That, in turn, allows an
> entire bureaucracy to wallow in denial, even over a crisis like the
> coronavirus outbreak and just a few months away from the Olympics.

[] [https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/opinion/coronavirus-
japan...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/opinion/coronavirus-japan-
abe.html)

~~~
drak0n1c
Similarly, the mayor of Boston chastised Sony for cancelling its PAX East
appearance, and accused Sony of supporting bigotry. The bureaucratic
disconnect is universal.

[https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2020-02-24-boston-
may...](https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2020-02-24-boston-mayor-
petitions-sony-to-return-to-pax-east)

------
dredmorbius
I'm in the middle of writing a general update / reassessment (usual caveat:
nonexpert space alien cat on the Internets).

1\. The wider spread is concerning.

2\. Institutional trust, capabilities, and competence in numerous countries is
a key factor. Notably in Iran, though also North Korea (its zero case reports
is increasingly implausible), and Africa (many ties to China, no cases outside
Egypt's _sole_ case).

3\. Testing and monitoring are critical, but limited. Keeping ahead of
spreads, testing and screening protocols, and back-tracing community
transmissions to a confirmed source, will be key to limiting further
outbreaks.

4\. Second-order impacts are likely to be far greater than the medical
consequences, all told. China's CO2 emissions are down by a quarter, not
because a quarter of the population is medically impacted, but because
preventive efforts, including transport, work, and education shut-downs, have
tremendously reduced total activity. Reported cases are 0.005% of the
population, deaths 0.0002%. It's concerns (valid), not medical severity
itself, which are driving these impacts. Recognising that the _present_ costs
are well worth a potential future avoided risk are well-worth paying is a
message that needs to be effectively communicated.

------
sciinfo
Here are estimates from MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at
Imperial College:

=> Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1% (including those who don't go to
see doctors)

=> Estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for travellers outside mainland China
(mix severe & milder cases) 1%-5%

=> Estimated CFR for detected cases in Hubei (severe cases) 18%

The last line (18%) applies when the outbreak becomes prevalent in an area and
overwhelm hospital capacity. If not contained, dozens of cities around the
world may become Hubei!

Ref: Report 4 here: [https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-
ana...](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana..).

From Report 6: "we estimated that about two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported
from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide, potentially resulting
in multiple chains of as yet undetected human-to-human transmission outside
mainland China."

Follow their Twitter at @MRC_Outbreak

~~~
sciinfo
For people still thinking it is just another SARS, MERS, or Swine Flu, check
out these graphs: [https://ncov.r6.no/](https://ncov.r6.no/)

------
DrJaws
It will be cancelled.

Mathematic models made by epidemiologist experts from Harvard and prediction
from John Hopkins guys are giving huge numbers

between 40 and 70% world adult population will be infected in one year and
numbers of deaths will be between 30 and 150 million if their predictions are
correct and china didn't lie with the 2% death rate

Read the threads from their twitters, the situation is much much worse than
the media is telling constantly with the influenza comparison, and this guys
are not nuts, they are top minds of epidemic control.

A brief from their conversations and information would be:

\- It is absolutely impossible to stop covid and will be a pandemic

\- The death rate could hit 10% in some countries

\- Expect between 30 and 70% of the world to be infected

\- millions of deaths

\- Governments duty now is not to stop the disease as they can't, but try to
slow it until we understand it better, have real numbers (chinese ones cannot
to be trusted), and we develop a vaccine so the R0 can be <1

\- Governments are likely going to adopt the hardest restrictions they can get
away, expect quarantines on every country

\- Health services on third world countries will collapse, first world will
have problems as we are not prepared

\- CDC is already saying the virus will be with us more than one season

\- hope we can avoid more deadly mutations

[https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html?...](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html?refreshed=1582681665)

[https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1231425805898657795.html](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1231425805898657795.html)

[https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/research/ncov-making-sense-
of-...](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/research/ncov-making-sense-of-an-
epidemic/)

[https://twitter.com/T_Inglesby](https://twitter.com/T_Inglesby)

[https://twitter.com/DrEricDing](https://twitter.com/DrEricDing)

[https://twitter.com/mlipsitch](https://twitter.com/mlipsitch)

~~~
Alex3917
> china didn't lie with the 2% death rate

Keep in mind that 2% is just a guess, of people officially diagnosed the death
rate is supposedly 4.8%:

[https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/f9134d/48_fatality...](https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/f9134d/48_fatality_rate_50k_study/)

~~~
DrJaws
We need to take into account also the asymptomatic people that will never
report the disease

~~~
raducu
Just as the majority of people who catch the flu don't get tested for it, only
the serious cases do.

So we know covid19 spreads much easier than the flu and is orders of magnitude
deadlier than the flu for those that get tested/confirmed compared to those
that get tested/confirmed with the flu.

~~~
im3w1l
The flu has been around for so long that I would assume we have very reliable
estimates of how common it is.

------
tinza123
Containing it? It's hopeless. Just cancel earlier so the economic loss can be
contained.

~~~
FooHentai
Containment is still desirable even in a scenario where this has spread to all
countries and on-track to become endemic.

Why? Because it buys time. If a vaccine can be developed, which is likely but
certain to take some months, then you can inoculate the populace and end up in
a situation where it's endemic-but-managed.

If you don't contain, however, then you assuredly burn through whatever
portion of your populace will succumb to this thing, all but ensuring your
nation's health service becomes overwhelmed, and as a bonus you stoke mutation
due to a greater number of hosts.

Fatalism is not useful here and should not be encouraged under any
circumstances. Containment efforts are _never_ in vain.

~~~
WalterBright
> which is likely but certain to take some months

The news today reported 12 to 18 months for mass availability of a vaccine.

~~~
n0rbwah
There was an article about an experimental way of creating new vaccines that
could potentially get it out faster.

[https://www.wsj.com/articles/drugmaker-moderna-delivers-
firs...](https://www.wsj.com/articles/drugmaker-moderna-delivers-first-
coronavirus-vaccine-for-human-testing-11582579099)

------
flukus
I wonder how long until other international events start to be closed? I live
almost trackside at a formula 1 event in a few weeks and I'm not exactly
enthusiastic about people coming in from all over the world and cramming onto
the public transport while they're drunk and sweaty.

It probably can't be contained anyway but large international events could
cause some huge spikes in transmission.

~~~
AmVess
China GP is cancelled, and they are thinking about cancelling the Italian GP.

More will certainly follow.

~~~
onlyrealcuzzo
What is GP?

~~~
AmVess
Sorry, Formula 1 gran prix.

------
mc3
Time for a remote distributed Olympics!

~~~
yoavm
ah, finally something we can use blockchain for!

------
gumby
This might be enough to kill the Olympics. There have been such near-
cancellations before (consider Moscow and LA in the middle of the cold war),
but the context was different: the Olympics were seen as an important trans-
national counterforce to the conflict of the two superpowers' spheres of
influence at a time when there were few such opportunities. This was
ostensibly the original basis for the Olympics being revived/reinvented in the
1890s. Hosting the games could "make" a city (e.g. Melbourne and Tokyo in the
1960s).

Nowadays the Olympics are simply one of a set of large international
commercial activities and one of the most corrupt of them. Hosting them is
typically a disaster for the hosting cities and fewer are interested in doing
so. If the games are cancelled people will still seek entertainment, and these
days with so many other options, the Olympic Games may not be missed enough to
survive.

~~~
spiderfarmer
Cities will have to smarter with reusing existing and purpose built stadiums
and buildings. One cancellation will not kill the brand.

~~~
gumby
Cities all _know_ they have to be smarter but have not demonstrated an ability
to do so. Just asserting they need to be doesn't really suggest any change
might happen.

As for a single cancellation: I discussed why this time could be different
from the two previous examples. If you think that's wrong I'd like to read the
counterargument.

------
jtn_001
Look like things getting out of control, world need to assemble the core team
which include world's top virology scientist, pharma company and top AI team
and jointly discover the drug in faster way

and they open source they works on github or other plateform to invite others
people to get involve to make thing on faster and best way

~~~
mantap
The problem is not discovering the vaccine, it is ensuring it is safe. See the
recent Dengue vaccine incident of what can go wrong when new vaccines are
rolled out without proper caution:
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengvaxia_controversy](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengvaxia_controversy)

------
kyeb
Wow, I've been reading Axios as my primary news source for years - first time
I've seen it linked on HN, though!

I highly recommend it to other people here. The reporting tends to be smart
and to the point, their UI/UX is smooth and modern, and their ads tend to be
more subtle than similar news sites.

~~~
devmunchies
You can click the site name in the title and see all the post from that site.
It’s pretty regular.
[https://news.ycombinator.com/from?site=axios.com](https://news.ycombinator.com/from?site=axios.com)

------
animalnewbie
One thing that's not being noted is that the disease has almost 1 in 500
mortality rate for under 40.

~~~
deadmutex
We all have family, etc. over 70 though.

~~~
rimliu
I don't.

~~~
rimliu
Those, who think I do: please name anyone. I just wanted to point absurd
generalization "we all".

------
skc
I'm pretty confident that eventually we will have effective remedies that will
keep people who contract it from having to be hospitalized, which is the real
problem here.

------
testfoobar
I know we haven't yet resolved what is happening now. But I'm curious - what
happens this coming winter with this virus?

It is my understanding that SARS and MERS were extinguished - they are not
circulating anymore in the general population. Given the dispersion of this
virus already, I can imagine hotspots rotating around the globe until the
winter.

Will it then explode in numbers once again in the colder temperatures/lower
humidity of winter?

~~~
ta999999171
It _is_ Winter in parts of the world.

------
netheril96
Every time COVID-19 comes up people talk about the "low" mortality rate. But
that hinges on enough medical resources. This disease quickly drains medical
resources due to so many becoming critically ill. Without effective
containment, a country will see their medical resources exhausted, and then
the mortality rate won't be 2% ~ 5%. Exactly how high that will be remains to
be seen.

~~~
john_minsk
~20% of cases are severe and require advanced medical support. I guess it is a
good approximation of death rate without medical support.

------
gdubs
Nassim Taleb (author of “Black Swan”) wrote a quick mini paper on the risks of
Coronavirus back in January. I think this crowd on HN would be interested:

[https://www.academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_...](https://www.academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Pathogens_-
_Coronavirus_A_Note)

------
mech1234
Referencing the [http://coronavirus-realtime.com/](http://coronavirus-
realtime.com/) website, the graph of the number of infections over time is
suspiciously non-exponential right now. I think China and the rest of the
world are both struggling to collect data on confirmed cases.

~~~
daanavitch
That whole website is an iframe with donation buttons and ads overlaid. The
original url is
[https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

~~~
mech1234
Yep, and they come up higher on the search results in bing and google. Not
sure if I really recommend them, but their dang domain name sure is a hell of
a lot easier to remember. Maybe I would recommend them on that fact alone- in
a public health crisis, easy access to critical information is important.

------
oh_sigh
Will the tech sector fare better than the general economy during this? After
all, no physical contact is the norm there.

~~~
robjan
Depends on what real-world businesses and processes the tech are supporting.
Most tech doesn't exist in isolation and involves things like manufacturing
and logistics. Other tech companies are supported by ads which are funded by
the aforementioned.

------
claudeganon
Here’s a new, succinct account of how terribly the Abe government is handling
the situation:

[https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/opinion/coronavirus-
japan...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/opinion/coronavirus-japan-
abe.html)

------
thereyougo
I hope it won't happen but the Olympic could make it spread to countries the
virus might not reach otherwise

------
samstave
My brother and his group of friends are all going to coachella and are talking
about concerns with coronavirus, as its heavily visited by international
goers.

Apparently in the past, a huge herpes outbreak occurred, so its a good litmus
for massive spread of something.

Wonder if events like this will also be cancelled.

------
nradov
Rather then cancelling completely, a limited option would be to run the games
in quarantine with just athletes, officials, and media. No spectators allowed.
Athletes confined to the Olympic Village for a couple weeks before and after
the Games, and bused to event venues with no public contact.

------
lurquer
The Olympics won't be cancelled.

Why?

Because the percentage increase of foreigners coming into Tokyo as a result of
the Olympics is negligible compared to the numbers going in and out on a daily
basis.

I love a good end-of-the-world scenario as much as anyone. But, gimme a
break... What rational benefit would there be in cancelling the Olympics? The
only risk of disease arising from the Olympics is the spread of herpes,
chlamydia, and ghonorhea in the Olympic village (a small price to pay to party
with uber-fit gymnasts...)

We've heard these warnings so many times...

Ebola, Avian Flu, SARS, MERS, West Nile Virus, Mad Cow Disease, H1N1, Zika
Virus, etc., etc....

Wake me when the dead start not staying dead... Now THAT would be a virus I
could can get behind. Until then, I fully expect to watch the Olympics this
summer (and maybe an episode or two of The Walking Dead), and read through
some of these hysterical posts and chuckle.

------
akmarinov
The European football cup is looking like it will be canceled as well.

~~~
Fezzik
Any news source on this? UEFA seems to be saying there is no chance of
cancelling the Cup... which I find believable, as the governing bodies for the
various soccer leagues and competitions tend to be more money-hungry than
other sports.

Edit: grammar.

~~~
ta999999171
...because they're scumbags. Just to complete the thought.

------
Waterluvian
Cancelled or postponed? By now they must have already spent a huge amount of
infrastructure. And why outright cancel? _why_ can't you "just do it in
October"?

~~~
yifanl
Asking athletes to perform in dramatically different conditions than they
train for (which will be the case for at least for outdoor events) is
practically asking them to drop out.

------
wendyshu
[https://predictionbook.com/predictions/198425](https://predictionbook.com/predictions/198425)

------
every
I will be working our precinct polls on Super Tuesday. I will try to practice
the common preventatives for exposure. Wash or use wipes regularly (no need
for anti-bacterial). Make a conscious effort not touch your eyes, nose or
mouth with your hands until you have washed. Insist anyone coughing or
sneezing cover their mouth (offer them a tissue). I've had my flu vaccine in
preparation but of course that is worthless against this new strain. I'll do
my civic duty on Tuesday as promised, but if things continue to degrade, there
is no way in hell I'm working November. I'm in the "elderly" high risk group
and not feeling especially lucky...

------
akeck
Will the coming warmer weather in the northern hemisphere slow down COVID-19?
That is, is temperature a factor?

------
nojvek
I believe a lot more things should be cancelled because of coronavirus. The
less we travel, the less it spreads.

Effectively the entire world is connected with flights and transport. A
contagious virus can prolly wipe out most of humanity in a short period of
time.

I’d say Airlines should give free refunds to people who don’t wish to vacation
in this environment. It’s prolly wishful thinking though.

------
dzink
Would a vaccine for Covid-19 work if the virus can re-infect people who have
already recovered from it?

~~~
Fomite
Vaccines can involve a number of techniques that can provoke a stronger immune
response than a natural infection.

~~~
baq
...which notably was the case in one of original SARS vaccine attempts.

------
alex_roan
Surely European Football Championships this summer is under threat too?

~~~
originalvichy
Hopefully there’s a green light for games televised from empty stadiums.

------
noja
Can it be athletes only?

------
socialdemocrat
I hope Americans will be fine but I fear it will get bad with the chaotic and
ineffective leadership of Donald Trump combined with a privatized and highly
individualized health care system.

The American idea that health care is a privilege you have to pay for will hit
a brick wall when you deal with a pandemic which does not give a shit about
how rich or poor you are.

With a minimalistic welfare state, lower class people will be forced to go to
work and will not afford having health checkups. That will risk spreading the
virus and cause more fatalities.

What happens when private hospitals have to take on lots of patients who
cannot pay? Will there be a race to the bottom trying to push patients over to
other hospitals, dump them off on a curb as soon as possible?

I cannot see how a relentlessly profit driven health care system can cope with
a serious pandemic.

~~~
34679
>With a minimalistic welfare state

The US spends nearly 20% of GDP on welfare. More (as %GDP) than Australia,
Canada, The Netherlands, Israel, Switzerland, and many others. In terms of
total spending, it's #2 in the world.

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_social_...](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_social_welfare_spending)

~~~
jbms
How much of that 20% goes to pay malpractice insurance and lawsuits?

------
tylerjwilk00
The cat is out of the bag so to speak. On a personal level all we can do is
hope we recover well and quick, if and when we are exposed. Every day you
breath in millions of viruses. You don't die because you have an immune system
that has earned you the privilege to survive on this planet. Short of a
vaccine we're just waiting for the battle and the reward of a new skill in our
immune systems armory.

That said, getting sick is terrible and it'd be great if we could nerf nature.
I pray for everyone's health and recovery.

------
epx
The solution is to spread this virus as fast as possible. Everybody gets
infected, develops immunity, problem solved.

------
_JamesA_
The title is missing the key word Olympics.

~~~
dang
Ok, let's have Olympics above.

------
aaron695
> coronavirus not contained by late May

??

It cannot be "contained" any more. Consensus is it's pandemic, it's not hard
to see.

Do we not understand how this works? What do reporters or the public think can
happen?

Even if there is a vaccination, which in reality will be years off, we can't
even vaccinate measles across the world and certainly not by 'May'.

We can't even supply gloves and face masks at the levels we need.

~~~
quelltext
IIRC the SARS outbreak in 2003 was "contained" within that year.

~~~
jamie_ca
We were able to essentially starve SARS out of new people to infect. It had a
2-7 day incubation period, was not contagious before symptomatic, and spread
by bodily fluid (coughing up water droplets, spread by touch to another).

COVID-19 has a 21+ day incubation period, is contagious before you're
symptomatic, and is possibly airborne (I haven't heard strong confirmation of
that yet, but it's definitely more virulent).

~~~
pengaru
And apparently it can survive on a stainless steel surface for 36 hours. [0]

Also from [0] however:

"Sunlight will cut the virus ability to grow in half so the half-life will be
2.5 minutes and in the dark it’s about 13m to 20m. Sunlight is really good at
killing viruses. That’s why I believe that Australia and the southern
hemisphere will not see any great infections rates because they have lots of
sunlight and they are in the middle of summer. And Wuhan and Beijing is still
cold which is why there’s high infection rates.

In regards to temperature, the virus can remain intact at 4 degrees or 10
degrees for a longer period of time. But at 30 degrees then you get
inactivation. And High humidity the virus doesn’t like it either. That’s why I
think Sars stopped around May and June in 2003 – that’s when there’s more
sunlight and more humidity. The environment is a crucial factor. The
environment will be unfavourable for growth around May. The evidence is to
look at the common cold – it’s always during winter. So the natural
environment will not be favourable in Asia in about May."

I believe this is the main reason May is the deadline for containment.

[0]
[https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTiiquwLa6tT-g/confere...](https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTiiquwLa6tT-g/conference-
call-coronavirus-expert)

~~~
blahedo
If it's inactivated at only 30 degrees (86F), that suggests an unconventional
combat strategy of just heating buildings to that temperature—that's basically
a hot summer day. We're not talking an autoclave here.

~~~
Invictus0
Good luck convincing a landlord to heat a building to 86 degrees in the
wintertime, and then convincing tenants not to turn on the AC.

------
pyuser583
I played way too much Plague.

------
rurban
Very likely not. Olympics are in the summer, the virus doesn't even survive
the spring. By May it will be gone.

~~~
hurrdurr2
This is wildly optimistic.

MERS is a similar virus and it is pretty much endemic in the Middle East.

------
toshk
A friend of mine who worked for defense creating viruses is convinced it's man
made because of the way the virus is structured.

Whether it's true or not. It's an interesting case, and I wonder why no one is
writing about this possibilty in the media. Those ideas are quickly dismissed
as crazy conspiracy theory. Where every big government is actively working on
creating viruses for both defense and offense.

Especially because in Wuhan there is one of these labs.

Around the world outbreaks out of viruses out of these labs happen regularly.
Even on purpose sometimes, but most of the time accidently.

~~~
ImaCake
Virologists seem pretty happy to say that the virus is _not_ man made. [0]

It is amazing to me the crazy theories circulating about this virus. Does
anyone remember similar stories from Zika or Ebola 2015 outbreaks?

0\. [http://virological.org/t/tackling-rumors-of-a-suspicious-
ori...](http://virological.org/t/tackling-rumors-of-a-suspicious-origin-of-
ncov2019/384)

~~~
dgellow
> Does anyone remember similar stories from Zika or Ebola 2015 outbreaks?

Yes, lot of similar ones.

------
aphextron
This is just typical "will it happen or won't it" pre-Olympics FUD. It's a
perennial clickbait theme that always works.

[http://aroundtherings.com/site/A__74354/Title__IOC-Chief-
Can...](http://aroundtherings.com/site/A__74354/Title__IOC-Chief-Cancellation-
of-PyeongChang-Olympics-Very-Close/292/Articles)

[https://www.cntraveler.com/stories/2016-02-04/should-
the-201...](https://www.cntraveler.com/stories/2016-02-04/should-
the-2016-olympics-be-canceled)

[https://www.theguardian.com/sport/shortcuts/2012/jun/12/coul...](https://www.theguardian.com/sport/shortcuts/2012/jun/12/could-
olympics-be-rained-off)

