
The decline in U.S. life expectancy is unlike anything seen in a century (2018) - paulpauper
https://www.popsci.com/life-expectancy-declining
======
pjc50
There is a country that suffered a steep decline in life expectancy towards
the end of the last century: Russia, after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The cause has some parallels too. Despite being a nonfree repressive society,
the Soviet Union provided the basic services of life to most of its citizens
pretty effectively. Its collapse left them with nothing, and much of the
actually valuable resources were stolen by the oligarchs who consolidated
power.

~~~
Gibbon1
Same thing is happening in the US just in slow motion.

~~~
campfireveteran
Exactly. Chalmers Johnson and Chris Hedges concur.

 _America: the Farewall Tour_ \- [https://www.worldcat.org/title/america-the-
farewell-tour/ocl...](https://www.worldcat.org/title/america-the-farewell-
tour/oclc/1057379785)

 _DECLINE of EMPIRES: The Signs of Decay_ \-
[https://youtu.be/Q2CCs-x9q9U](https://youtu.be/Q2CCs-x9q9U)

Today, in Paradise, the power was out for most of the day... like Mogadishu or
Baghdad. America, like a slowly-boiled frog, has become a third-world country:

\- no universal healthcare

\- grotesque inequality: lower average pay, unlivable wages, more
billionaires, millions of homeless.

\- wealth transfer from the poor to the rich through tariffs, fines, fees and
other taxes

\- crumbling infrastructure - tens of thousands of structurally-deficient
bridges and crossings

\- apathetic, uncaring police letting crime go unpunished and misery flourish

Americans don't know how bad they have it... it's great for the very rich, but
it's horrible for most people including the aspirational rich who will never
be so and yet vote/work against their own interests and be cowardly traitors
against We The People.

~~~
Gibbon1
There is a line my dad's scruffy friends say when discussing the decline of
the US.

"Two ways... Gradually and then suddenly"

------
todd8
I encourage readers to see the original CDC report [1]. It full of facts, but
quite easy to read. Skim over the data, it’s presented in graphs and tables.

Unfortunately, this is one of those subjects that numerous commenters see
through their own political or philosophical perspectives of the headlines
without consulting the underlying data. Check out things for yourself.

There are some disturbing trends I noticed while looking over the data on my
phone. Homicides, suicides, and accidents of young men have continued to
increase and appear to me to be pulling down overall life expectancies (which
have changed a small amount in the last few years).

[1]
[https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/hus17.pdf](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/hus17.pdf)

~~~
Balgair
A few points I saw:

Pg. 8: Alzheimer's Disease caused deaths for both males and females increased
a fair bit! And for males, Unintentional Deaths also increased recently. Note
that the Y-axis is in a LOG scale; any movement upwards is a lot.

Pg. 10: Yeah, Juul and the like really are hurting children. Grades 2 & 3
Obesity are increasing too. Both are not good.

Pg. 11: Asthma in black children has gone up a fair amount.

Pg. 14: West Coast and Virginian essential vaccination is under 2/3 babies (3
years or younger). That is WELL below herd immunity. New England, Deep South,
and Plains states are above 3/4.

Pg. 21: Ages 15-44 have seen an uptick in mortality. Note: The y-axis is in
LOG scale, so it's been a fair bit of an uptick.

Pg. 22: A big uptick in infant mortality due to unintentional injuries.

Pg. 23: ... Jesus ... a huge increase in child _suicide_ rates and an increase
in teen homicide and suicide rates. Note: The y-axis is in LOG scale.

Pg. 24: HIV deaths are WAY down (!), unintentional injuries and liver
cirrhosis are up.

Pg. 25: Alzheimer's deaths in the elderly are up a fair amount.

pg. 26: Holy shit ... overdose rates are just ... wow ...

pg. 27: Appalachia and New England ... good Lord ... I mean, you hear things
about it all, but wow.

pg. 29: Cirrhosis deaths in middle aged men are really climbing. The booze, it
ain't good.

Aside: On the increases in 'unintentional death'. I get a whiff of the issues
that Colorado Springs had with their teen suicide cell a few years back. The
coroner, in deference to the religious families of the deceased, would label
the deaths not as a suicide, but as something different. The problem became
that since these deaths were not recorded properly, CDC officials were not
alerted and the suicide cell was allowed to fester. There were a lot of kids
that died as a result of that. The increase in 'unintentional deaths' may be
something similar, where the coroners are recording the deaths in deference to
the wishes of the family. I've not a shred of proof on this, but I get a
strong smell of it from causally looking at the data.

~~~
LinuxBender
I would add that Cirrhosis isn't just alcohol. Another major contributor is
sugar and complex carbs. There are about 87 million Americans that meet the
criteria for Metabolic Syndrome and that is directly related and getting worse
with time.

~~~
blacksmith_tb
It's also caused by hepatitis (B and C)[1] which effects millions of people in
the US[2].

1:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cirrhosis#Causes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cirrhosis#Causes)

2:
[https://www.cdc.gov/hepatitis/hcv/cfaq.htm#statistics](https://www.cdc.gov/hepatitis/hcv/cfaq.htm#statistics)

~~~
ToFundorNot
and [https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health-
topics/hemochromatosis](https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health-
topics/hemochromatosis) which affects an estimated 30% of americans

------
vfc1
Liver disease is likely linked to the continuously rising obesity levels:

> "adult obesity rates now exceed 35% in nine states, 30% in 31 states and 25%
> in 48 states."

[https://stateofchildhoodobesity.org/adult-
obesity/](https://stateofchildhoodobesity.org/adult-obesity/)

More people are now dying earlier from liver disease, instead of dying later
of for example diabetes or heart disease. In more cases, the liver is failing
first due to lifetime obesity problems.

~~~
faissaloo
Could it also be alcohol consumption? Seems consistent with drug use.

~~~
perseusprime11
I am almost certain that this is 100% alcohol-related. The book headstrong
opened my eyes to the problems of alcohol even in moderation.

~~~
P_I_Staker
I agree about alcohol use being more problematic than people realize. That
said, has there been a rise in drinking over that timespan? According to other
comments, the answer is no.

------
alex_young
Having spent the last year living is Switzerland, the major increase of drug
overdoses in the US seems so preventable.

The Swiss have both decriminalized drug use (kills the black market, prevents
people from getting an unknown dose of something) and highly restricted
prescribing them.

I dislocated a shoulder and was never offered anything for pain, just physical
therapy. This may sound harsh, but isn't setting someone up with an addiction
that could lead to death pretty bad?

~~~
wil421
Is it normal to get pain killers for a dislocation? Never heard of that
happening in the US. My friend dislocated his shoulder cliff diving last
month. The doctor popped it back in and that was that.

~~~
Ididntdothis
From what I have experienced in the US doctors seem to believe that no amount
of pain is acceptable. So they prescribe painkillers a lot. Definitely way
more than I have experienced in Germany.

~~~
wil421
It certainly isn’t my experience or anyone in my family. The only time I ever
was prescribed pain killers was after surgery for severely impacted wisdom
teeth. They gave me 2. I’ve had broken bones where I was put to sleep, nasty
dog bite where I still have a dent in my calf, multiple stitches from random
accidents, and a somewhat major car accident.

Pain killers were not even an option and the doctors said deal with it. Here’s
some Ibuprofen.

It could be anecdotal, the doctors in my area are good and they are very aware
of opioid issues. I know of people driving to Florida to find favorable
doctors.

~~~
Ididntdothis
Interesting. I have received and thrown away tons of Vicodin and muscle
relaxers even for relatively minor injuries.

~~~
bilbo0s
That's crazy.

I've been a pretty high level athlete, and have had some pretty bad injuries,
and never once was I prescribed a pain killer?

Why is everything so non-uniform in this country? Because anyone with the
resources to go to a doctor, you would think probably has insurance? So what
is driving those differences? Just the doctors themselves?

~~~
xapata
You know how in your field, there is a wide variation in skill? Same in every
other field.

------
marsrover
I grew up in Mississippi but left for good about 5 years ago. Whenever I go
back it seems so desolate with no sense of hope. I can’t speak to Jackson
(largest city and capital) but in the rural area I’m from, the state seems
like it is completely in the winter of its current cycle. After high school or
college people either leave or end up poor or on drugs. Not surprised by it
having the lowest life expectancy.

~~~
bduerst
Surprisingly, according to the CDC, the rate drug overdose deaths in MS didn't
grow between 2006 and 2016. While terrible, the base rate isn't even that high
compared to other states, so imagine what it's like elsewhere in the U.S.
right now too.

For example, in states like Vermont and Delaware the drug overdose rate
_tripled_ in ten years.

[https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/hus17.pdf](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/hus17.pdf)

------
mdsobuj
Health and life expectancy varies geographically. Worldwide variation is
enormous, but even within the United States you can expect to live 6.6 years
longer if you live in Hawaii, the top-ranked state, than in Mississippi, which
comes in last. With its 81.3 year life expectancy, Hawaii looks more like the
Netherlands than the United States. Mississippi's 74.7 year projection looks
more like Kuwait.

~~~
nraynaud
One problem of life expectancy is that old people retiring skew it, basically
moving from Kansas to Florida at 70 increases the life expectancy of Florida,
because the people who died at 20 in Kansas can't move to Florida too.

That's why Israel or Spain have such a high life expectancy with such a modest
economic life, people retire there, they come while having already survived.

~~~
Arnt
I think you're wrong...

Life expectancy is computed by counting deaths per cohort and year. That is,
the statisticians will count the number of people your age who die in your
location this year, and the number of people one year older, etc. At the end
of the year, they do the totals and compute that, say, 0.1% of people your age
died at your location, and 0.1% of people one year older, etc.

Then they compute your life expectancy by multiplying those chances together.

People moving shouldn't affect that significantly, because this computation
doesn't use the past at all. All the data comes from one year.

The big assumption there is that your chance of dying in ten years is assumed
to be the same as people ten years older than you dying this year. The small
assumption is that the population is assumed to be stable and countable within
the present year (I suppose it's possible to work around that with more
sophisticated statistics, though).

~~~
dsfyu404ed
What you said about how life expectancy is calculated is correct but...

The elderly on death's door in a nursing home are not moving to some
retirement community in Florida where they can DUI a golf cart all day.

The young who are depressed or have substance abuse problems are not the
people who have the spare willpower to relocate so they can run the rat race
in a major metro.

So your calculations for any given year are going to favor places like NYC and
Florida because their cohort includes all those "less likely to die this year"
people who moved there last year. So a state or region could be doing
everything wrong yet still have good life expectancy because it's where people
with good life expectancy wind up.

~~~
Arnt
So I did a few back-of-the-envelope calculations. What magnitude do you have
in mind? Because what I got was single-digit numbers of weeks, and why bother
to discuss differences as small as that?

I started by assuming that since most health care cost is concentrated in the
last four years of life, that's for how long retirees can affect the
statistics by moving or not moving. 4 is a small number, and the number of
people who move also cannot be large compared to the general population in the
area they move from, so no matter how I tweaked it, I arrived at near-zero
results.

------
nabla9
Chronic liver disease mortality continues to rise in the US because there is
increase in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Increasing obesity and type 2
diabetes are believed to be the reason. People die from eating too much.

~~~
LinuxBender
Not just eating too much, but also eating the wrong things. Sugar and complex
carbs need to be put in the same control category as alcohol. Glyphosates are
also a factor in this for damage to the liver and liver cancer.

------
dekhn
I wanted to help health in the US but here's a perfect example of why we're in
the situation we're in: obesity is rising in the US. Most of obesity occurs
because of preventable life decisions (I assume free will here) in the sense
that by changing some decisions you can become not-obese. If you're obese,
you're at risk of a number of diseases that can be prevented by becoming not
obese.

Gilead, a successful biotech/pharma, among others, noticed that with rising
obesity,there were a number of dieases increasing in prevalence (NASH is an
example). They chose to try to develop a drug for NASH, spent billions to come
up with promising leads, then they failed in stage 2 or 3 (last steps before
approval).

When companies spent billions on drugs, and they fail, that cost is eaten, the
company doesn't make much less profit, it just factors those costs into other
drugs, mainly in countries where they expect people can afford higher drug
prices.

I don't blame biotech/pharma (who are driven by profit motive) for chasing
expensive drugs that don't address the underlying problem, but if the
equivalent amount of money had been instead spent on simple methods to reduce
obesity. Who is going to spend that kind of money on general health
improvements without a profit motive (other than, say, our government)?

All the above is a great simplification, but it's an example of how we got
into the situation we are in. We tend to go for high-tech patches of problems
rather than root causing, and it seems tied to the profit motives of
companies. Ultimately I think only the government is capable of addressing
structural issues like this, either by funding the research and orgs who deal
with root causes, or by making laws that incentive good behavior in
biotech/pharma.

~~~
fulafel
Insurance companies, individuals and employers also stand to profit from
effective preventive treatment. We just need an effective subscription based
obesity prevention service...

~~~
decibe1
Isn't that a gym membership?

~~~
fulafel
I think a personal food trainer would be closer. It's more about eating than
exercise for most people.

------
helpPeople
Drugs and obesity. It sure seems like we have too much abundance.

But the top comment is about inequality.

I do think we have everything we need, but we don't like seeing people have
more than us. I find this strange, maybe this is genetic and used to find the
best mates.

~~~
kerkeslager
Obesity isn't caused by abundance. On the contrary, _poverty_ is strongly
correlated with obesity in the US[1]--which indeed points to an inequality
link.

The correlation between poverty and drug use is strongly politicized, so much
so that the top search results on Google for "substance abuse and poverty" are
all political faux-informational sites. Data is hard to find.

But this is also because the data is less clear. Alcohol/marijuana are used
the most in a) high income areas, and b) areas with large income inequality[2]
(again an inequality link, but in slightly unexpected ways). I've found
numerous sources claiming that two studies exists: The first study supposedly
shows that heroin use is rising across all income brackets, while other
illicit substances (besides heroin and marijuana) are more prevalent in low-
income brackets. The second study supposedly shows that prescription drugs are
more prevalent in lower income brackets. However, I have not been able to
locate these studies (I'm guessing this is because they are behind paywalls).

Assuming all these sources aren't lying about the studies existing, I think
the data does indicate a link between inequality and substance abuse (although
it is not nearly as clear as the link between inequality and obesity).

[1]
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3198075/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3198075/)

[2]
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1974881/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1974881/)

~~~
_bxg1
> Obesity isn't caused by abundance. On the contrary, poverty is strongly
> correlated with obesity in the US[1]--which indeed points to an inequality
> link.

Yep. You can see this in my state (Texas) simply by driving from a metroplex a
couple of hours out into the country. Obesity visibly skyrockets.

Part of it is cultural, but part of it is economic. Healthy food is simply
more expensive, especially if you want it to taste good.

~~~
thrower123
> Part of it is cultural, but part of it is economic. Healthy food is simply
> more expensive, especially if you want it to taste good.

This canard keeps getting thrown out, but it is absolutely not more expensive
to eat healthy, apart from needing to have some tiny semblance of skill in the
kitchen. Buying real food is cheaper than buying processed garbage, and it's
not like an EBT card only works for buying eggo waffles and Doritos, rather
than frozen peas and porkchops.

It's entirely cultural.

~~~
asdff
Healthy food takes time to prepare and make as well, which is hard when you
work 60 hour weeks to make rent before any other expenses.

~~~
P_I_Staker
That part is somewhat true. It's the illusive cheap, healthy, tasty, fast
combo that's so hard to achieve. I have to agree with OP about cost though.

There are even decent healthy frozen products that are affordable (most people
could spend $1 on veg; they wouldn't think twice spending that on a drink) and
take no effort. Frozen chicken breasts can be thrown directly in oven and
eaten with mixed spices and/or sauce. It is doable.

~~~
_bxg1
> There are even decent healthy frozen products that are affordable

Most of them cost a dollar or two extra, though. The people on HN probably
have a skewed perspective on what amount of money starts to matter; for some
people $1 more for a meal really does matter.

~~~
P_I_Staker
Nope. I'm aware of this. It depends what you get; I've done it. There are
absolutely low cost, high nutritional options that don't require effort. Some
of the cheapest frozen food is high in nutrition.

You can get frozen chicken breasts cheap, not necessarily as cheap as fresh,
but much less than the unhealthy options. Frozen vegtables are purchased on
sale and cost 50c per serving. There's cans too. Carbs are easy.

If you manage your kitchen correctly, you don't even need to go frozen.
Honestly, even the "banquit"/healthy choice options aren't always that much,
and can be worked into a healthy diet. Fruit isn't that expensive either, if
you buy in the right season and don't get something exotic.

I understand obesity is correlated with poverty, and don't blame anyone for it
(I don't consider it their fault). The reality is that you can eat healthy on
a budget, and nutritious food doesn't need to cost anything extra.
Unfortunatly, many of these people are living in "food deserts" and good
supermarkets aren't always available.

------
droithomme
Suicide, liver disease and drug overdoses (recent large increases in these
three are identified the source of the lower life expectancy overall) all stem
from the same root cause: depression, despair and hopelessness.

------
mtw
This article was written a year ago. I know the opioid epidemic peaked in
2017/2018 but I don't know if it's as bad for 2019. A lot has changed, from
lawsuits to China

------
geggam
I would be interested to see the correlation to income inequality and life
expectancy.

I predict a direct correlation and all of the things discussed are symptoms of
poverty.

------
jdkee
All three categories are “deaths of despair”. Want to address them? 1\.
Provide meaningful work opportunities that allows a middle class existence.

2\. Lower barriers to inter generational mobility.

3\. Restore low cost college tuition.

4\. Don’t allow medical expenses to bankrupt families.

The United States is in the Second Gilded Age. We need a new progressive
movement to stand up for the majority of Americans.

~~~
TurkishPoptart
Yes, when I phone-banked for Bernie in 2016, the we agreed we needed a new
FDR-like administration and leader.

------
snagglegaggle
This dropped of the front page pretty quickly, someone must not like it.

------
superqwert
Do we have evidence as to what is causing the insane rise in OD deaths?

~~~
IAmGraydon
A perfect storm of prescription opioids, government prohibition and
cheap/plentiful Chinese and Mexican fentanyl.

~~~
maxheadroom
> _A perfect storm of prescription opioids, government prohibition, and cheap
> /plentiful Chinese and Mexican fentanyl._

I think it's actually the fact that the war on opioids has translated into a
war on prescription pain drugs, in general.

So, when you're a chronic pain sufferer and have gone without and you get
ahold of something - anything - to remediate the pain, you're far more likely
to take a little extra just to get the pain to STFU for a while so you can do
things like sleep through the night for the first time in seemingly forever.

I've heard tales of American veterans (through the VA) being referred to
things like yoga to manage their chronic pain, when it's entirely due to
neurological damage and things like yoga will do fuck-all to help with that.

Is it any wonder then that people might be more liable to OD when they obtain
something to try to manage the pain that otherwise never ceases?

I'd say it is a fundamental issue in American society (the war on opioids
translating into no pain management medications whatsoever) with callous
indifference - rather than anything else.

~~~
pkaye
I think it is also the lack of sick leave for many Americans so they take a
quick pill to recover. Sometimes your body can recover by itself if only given
time and physical therapy.

I had some excruciating peroneal tendonitis that made it hard for me to walk
on rough surfaces. Foot doctor said the best treatment was a walking cast,
rest and daily exercise. Fortunately my employer allows me to work from home
as needed so I could give my foot a rest for a few weeks. But not everyone has
access to that. Imagine if you are a server at a restaurant on your foot all
day.

------
DeonPenny
How did life expectancy grow during the crack 80s? Seems fishy

------
Digit-Al
Has anyone else managed to get past their horrific (and non-compliant) GDPR
consent page? I selected the "Accept All" and it just thrashed away for ages
running god knows how many scripts. I ended up killing it and opening it in
Outline.com.

------
wazoox
Displays only the title, than a blank page in Firefox. Displays endlessly the
"accept cookie" page in Chromium. What's the conclusion of the article? Dunno.

~~~
swebs
[http://archive.is/Dbjxv](http://archive.is/Dbjxv)

------
_iyig
The decline in U.S. life expectancy has disproportionately affected whites,
especially in rural areas with decreased economic opportunity [0][1]. I think
this economic shift and its consequences largely determined the result of the
2016 Presidential election.

I've only seen one 2020 Democratic candidate directly address this trend so
far: Andrew Yang [2]. (I don't advise reading his tweet's replies, it's
typical Twitter political hyperbole.)

[0]
[https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/07/190711122655.h...](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/07/190711122655.htm)

[1] [https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2019-09-06/economic-
ha...](https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2019-09-06/economic-hardship-
suicide-rates)

[2]
[https://twitter.com/andrewyang/status/1010207553324806150?la...](https://twitter.com/andrewyang/status/1010207553324806150?lang=en)

~~~
H8crilA
_> If we exaggerate the present and future value of the stock market, then as
a society we may invest too much in business start-ups and expansions, and too
little in infrastructure, education, and other forms of human capital._

Robert Shiller, Irrational Exuberance

Populism is here to stay (both of the left kind and of the right kind), until
the root cause is addressed: income inequality. It's reprehensible to have
life expectancy decreased in a first world country. In fact, because this is
happening perhaps we should contend with the fact that America may be, as of
recently, a third world country? There's a reason why Ray Dalio, the most
successful hedge fund manager of all times calls this problem "a national
emergency" that may be "an existential risk to United States".

~~~
pietrovismara
Compared to most European countries, US doesn't really feel like a first world
country anymore. As a lower class member, your life would be drastically worse
in US than Europe. As a middle class member it would also be much easier to
lose your position, just have some health issue and you'll see how fast it
takes to burn your life savings.

~~~
helpPeople
I felt the opposite when I visited Europe.

Everything is small in Europe, people seem to have bare minimums.

I suppose it's all about perception.

Edit- it seems like it depends on which quality metrics you use. I used
"Stuff", other users choose life expectancy, and vacation time.

~~~
Sharlin
Indeed. My perception is that well-off Americans have ridiculously excessive
unsustainable lifestyles, with superfluously large cars, houses, whatever. And
at the same time your poor have much less than those bare minimums that you
mention.

~~~
weberc2
It’s not just the very wealthy. The middle class in America also enjoy a much
nicer standard of living than in Europe. Have a gander at the cost of living
indices and there are very few categories where the US doesn’t fare better
(and often dramatically better). Not to mention the takehome pay (post-
pension, post-healthcare) are quite often 30-40% larger for working
professionals. I think we still need a stronger social safety net, but Europe
is not so dramatically better than the US as this thread makes it out to be.

~~~
Sharlin
I did mean to include the middle class (especially upper middle class) in my
definition of "well-off".

~~~
weberc2
What then do you mean that American cars/houses are unsustainable? I don't
think big houses/cars is a good thing, but I think it probably is sustainable
for quite a while (less climate concerns, in which case everything is
unsustainable, depending on who you talk to) because we don't have the same
density as Europe. I haven't thought much about this, but that's my hunch. I'd
be really interested to hear counterarguments.

------
temptemptemp111
Meanwhile, HN is more concerned with censoring opinions that have more to do
with why life expectancy is decreasing than this popsci article can state.

~~~
swebs
What are those opinions?

------
rayiner
Ad-block friendly article: [https://www.aafp.org/news/health-of-the-
public/20181210lifee...](https://www.aafp.org/news/health-of-the-
public/20181210lifeexpectdrop.html)

> "The latest CDC data show that the U.S. life expectancy has declined over
> the past few years," said CDC Director Robert Redfield, M.D., in a Nov. 29
> statement.(www.cdc.gov) "Tragically, this troubling trend is largely driven
> by deaths from drug overdose and suicide.“

Of the various things that have been discussed as causes, one thing that gets
overlooked is declining religiosity: [https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-god-the-
answer-to-the-suicid...](https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-god-the-answer-to-
the-suicide-epidemic-11562885290)

> A 2016 study published in JAMA Psychiatry found that American women who
> attended a religious service at least once a week were five times less
> likely to commit suicide. The findings—based on data from 90,000 women from
> 1996 to 2010—are consistent with 2019 Pew Research findings that regular
> participation in religious community is clearly linked to higher levels of
> happiness. It’s true that correlation doesn’t prove causation, but there’s
> strong evidence that people who attend church or synagogue regularly are
> less inclined to take their own lives.

Decreasing marriage and fertility rates are another potential cause,
especially given that suicide rates have increased fastest among women:
[https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/fullarticle/...](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/fullarticle/496069)

[https://www.thecut.com/2016/04/the-suicide-statistics-
releas...](https://www.thecut.com/2016/04/the-suicide-statistics-released-
today-are-terrifying.html)

> Marriage rates have declined, particularly among less educated Americans,
> while divorce rates have risen, leading to increased social isolation, she
> said. She calculated that in 2005, unmarried middle-aged men were 3.5 times
> more likely than married men to die from suicide, and their female
> counterparts were as much as 2.8 times more likely to kill themselves.

Which all makes some sort of sense, right? Life expectancy has been increasing
for decades, and the US has lacked universal healthcare this whole time. With
ACA, healthcare coverage has never been higher. So it seems hard to chalk
declining life expectancies to factors that have only been getting better over
time.

Economics is likewise a suspect causal factor. The last time suicide rates
were this high was the Great Depression. Unemployment and wage stagnation were
worse in the 1970s yet suicide rates were never so high.

~~~
maxheadroom
> _...one thing that gets overlooked is declining religiosity..._

I think, maybe, you're mistaking the community that forms around religion
(e.g.: churches, friendships, church groups, etc.) for religion, itself.

If the argument were that lack of religion is a precursor to increasing
suicide rates, then we in Europe should be killing ourselves off in droves
because we're the least religious lot (compared to our North American
counterparts).

~~~
rayiner
I’m speaking within an American context. The decline in organized religion in
the US has been very rapid (since 1998, really, after decades of stability),
and other community constructs have not arisen in their place. For example,
living with parents or extended family is much less common in the US than in
Italy or Spain (which have particularly low suicide rates).

Likewise, the drop in fertility rate has been steeper in the US. Rates dropped
from almost 4 in 1960 to 1.8 today. Sweden dropped from about 2.5 to 1.85.

~~~
AnthonyMouse
> and other community constructs have not arisen in their place.

This is really the issue. If the Church had been replaced by some other form
of community, that would be one thing, but it has been replaced by nothing.

