
TheShadowBrokers likely former NSA contractor - nthcolumn
https://www.cyberscoop.com/shadow-brokers-investigation-nsa-former-insider-fbi-q-group/
======
sievebrain
After a year of reading that the Shadow Brokers are "definitely" Russian
intelligence, despite the implausibility of that theory, I'm glad to see some
sanity slowly reassert itself.

But I wonder if anyone who made such confident statements will revisit their
prior positions and assumptions? I doubt it.

~~~
meowface
This article isn't providing any counter-evidence to the claim that The Shadow
Brokers are a cover for Russian intelligence.

The HN headline is misleading and does not reflect the actual article's
headline: "Shadow Brokers investigation is focusing on former NSA insider"

The NSA's "Q group" is just trying to determine if it was a breach or a leak,
and to identify the source of the leak if there was one. It's quite possible
it was an internal employee or contractor who gave (or was coerced into
giving) information to another intelligence agency. Or to some intermediary
who later secretly gave it to an intelligence agency. There are lots of
possibilities.

~~~
nthcolumn
>The NSA's "Q group" is just trying to determine if it was a breach or a leak,
and to identify the source of the leak if there was one.

What now twelve months after the first chatter?

"Shadow Brokers investigation is focusing on former NSA insider"

theshadowbrokers being an 'is' not an 'are' (as in cover).

The investigation is now in a direction which goes BEYOND the original
hypotheses that it may have been as result of a leak from Harold Martin's
home.

Cover for SVR? I don't think any serious analysis ever entertained that.

>'Misleading'

Duly noted.

~~~
meowface
>What now twelve months after the first chatter?

Okay, "is and has been for twelve months".

>The investigation is now in a direction which goes BEYOND the original
hypotheses that it may have been as result of a leak from Harold Martin's
home.

Yes, but that doesn't mean they're necessarily excluding the Russia
hypothesis. It could very well mean they're just extending and updating it. Or
maybe they are scrapping it - us outsiders have no way of knowing.

>"Shadow Brokers investigation is focusing on former NSA insider"
>theshadowbrokers being an 'is' not an 'are' (as in cover).

If you want to rely on a cyberscoop.com article's credibility and attention to
fine detail, then I'd argue they're pointing more in the opposite direction:

>Sources tell CyberScoop that former NSA employees have been contacted by
investigators in the probe to discover how a bevy of elite computer hacking
tools fell into the Shadow Brokers’ possession.

>While investigators believe that a former insider is involved, the expansive
probe also spans other possibilities, including the threat of a current
intelligence community employee being connected to the mysterious group.

They explicitly name a real group, and don't seem to imply that the entire
Shadow Brokers entity is one disgruntled leaker.

>Cover for SVR? I don't think any serious analysis ever entertained that.

No, no serious public analysis has ever made a strong accusation. But in this
case, the public (and possibly even the IC) knows very little about who the
true culprit is, so there is a lack of analysis on this in general. As far as
I know, it's all been speculation.

Snowden did say "Circumstantial evidence and conventional wisdom indicates
Russian responsibility." [1] but I obviously take his view with a huge grain
of salt, given his position.

There is no strong evidence pointing to Russia being responsible for this -
all I was saying is that nothing in this article is somehow suggesting the
Russian theory has been thrown out by NSA's investigators.

[1]
[https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/765514891813945344](https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/765514891813945344)

~~~
nthcolumn
> Yes, but that doesn't mean they're necessarily excluding the Russia
> hypothesis. It could very well mean they're just extending and updating it.
> Or maybe they are scrapping it - us outsiders have no way of knowing.

No we're keeping an open mind on that.

Okay here's this Rep. Will Hurd, R-Texas (mentioned in the article) was doing
the rooms at BHDC yesterday. General Hayden also.

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atemerev
Sounds plausible for me. Some notions in their "obfuscated" texts suggested
that they come from inside the US (not necessarily from US nationals, but at
least they live or used to live in the US for quite some time).

------
wand3r
it's probably the actual NSA. Would be a top tier honey trap.

~~~
bobsam
Nope, it was the NHS trying to get Tory to raise their budget...

PS. Speaking of crazy conspiracies, look up "UFO Obama" on YouTube for a good
laugh.

