

Dilbert's Scott Adams on Betting on the Bad Guys  - cwan
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704025304575285000265955016.html

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10ren
Warren Buffett has said many times that being so large (and eg able to buy
billion dolar companies) actually makes it more difficult for them to make
money - because there aren't many companies large enough to make a difference,
_and everybody already knows about those companies_.

He's also been quoted as saying that if he only had a million dollars, he
could double it in a year. I haven't seen him explain this specifically, but
the idea seems to be to research companies that are not well known, because
that's where you're more likely to find stocks that whose price are mis-
valued. And this is the work side: you have to research all those stocks (not
just the top 300 or so that have analysts following them), and you have to be
sure (within a margin of safety) of your evaluation of their value (especially
in terms of enduring competitive advantage). If they're selling cheap, with
respect to your evaluation, you buy. It takes a lot of work, and self-
confidence.

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Tichy
"you have to research all those stocks"

That sounds like actual work. I thought the idea of investing is to let the
money work for you.

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seabee
A fool and his money are easily parted. If you do no work to find out if
something is a good investment, you are that fool.

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steveplace
Funny how everyone talks about BP but doesn't mention CAM, RIG, ATPG, and
others. If you're going to invest, find the companies that make better
drilling equipment because their services are going to be needed for the
relief wells and fresh mandates for higher quality drilling.

Funnier still is how we think BP is the "bad guy" when the U.S. hasn't
developed a transportation policy that doesn't focus on driving your SUV 30
miles to a grocery store. It's hypocrisy at its finest. We've had a blowup in
coal, oil, and shale in the past 2 months but we still need cheap energy.

~~~
getonit
IE, Don't join the gold rush, but sell picks and shovels to those who do.

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jrockway
Why not become a contract killer? For the price of a handgun, you can make
over 50 grand a day! Why bet on bad guys when you can _be_ the bad guy?

Interestingly, this half-sarcastic rant has brought up a question in my mind.
Why not charge betters on crime for the crime? Why not charge shareholders for
the crimes corporations commit?

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daniel-cussen
Because of limited liability?

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jrockway
If I paid someone to drain a bunch of oil into the ocean, I'd be in trouble.
But if I "invest in" BP and it does the same, I'm OK. Why?

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ekanes
The difference isn't anything to do with you paying (or owning stock in them)
but rather intention. If you were paying someone to refill boats with oil, and
they _unintentionally_ spilled a bunch (just as BP did), you'd be liable in
the same way as BP is now.

Note that BP _is_ in trouble... There will be lawsuits all over the place, and
not just from shareholders.

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jrockway
My question is, why not go after the shareholders in addition to BP?

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ComputerGuru
simply enough: it's. not. their. fault.

~~~
jrockway
How many shares do you have to sell before it's not $crime_for_hire?

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skorgu
Mu. Buying a hitman lunch does not make you an accessory to murder.

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sage_joch
Under "invest in companies you love", he seems to define such companies as
those with good sales pitches. But what about the more sensible definition,
companies with passionate users? Anyone who invested in the obvious ones
(Amazon, Google, Netflix, and Apple, for example) would have made a killing.
On the other hand, take Comcast, the Consumerist's "Worst Company in America"
for 2009. Comcast's stock has been stagnant at best.

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blehn
Exactly. Teehan+Lax tested that theory, and while I'd probably disagree with
some of their choices, the results are pretty impressive.

<http://teehanlax.com/uxfund/>

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cianestro
True. I realized this a while ago and my life is a lot less confusing. I've
dabbled in media long enough to know it's more magic than reality. When you
need to find, shoot, and edit a piece in less than 24 hours on a limited
budget the truth stretches as much as your dollars do (this varies on whether
your producer is Lucifer himself or not). Long story short I'm not involved in
media anymore, you should spend your time on things you hate loving versus
things you love hating, and read HN.

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mr_justin
If you really want to bet on the bad guys, invest in the companies behind BP
and this oil spill. Such as Halliburton. Some people are speculating that BP
will fold from this disaster due to the enormous projected cost of cleanup
(10-30 times the cost of Valdez).

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weichi
Funniest line:

"CEOs are highly skilled in a special form of lying called leadership"

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tmsh
wrong + wrong + irony != right

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itistoday
Consider the relativity of hatred. He gives as one of his examples, Apple
Inc., which he claims to hate, and therefore uses that to "prove" his point
(buy stock in companies you hate). By his reasoning I should have avoided
Apple's stock because I like Apple.

Really though, this is a fantastic article, and I think the best bit of advice
is at the end:

    
    
      Again, I remind you to ignore me.

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BerislavLopac
I think it's simpler than that: just go for the companies that you (and other
people) develop strong feelings about.

