
The US will lose a war with China - randtrain34
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/think-we-have-military-primacy-over-china-think-again/2020/05/12/268e1bba-948b-11ea-9f5e-56d8239bf9ad_story.html
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platinumrad
Yeah, let's throw another trillion dollars at the defense industry.

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simonblack
It doesn't matter what weapons you start with, what matters is what weapons
you end with.

Can you replace your losses of weaponry? You need lots and lots of
manufacturing capacity for that. Did you know that Japan started WW2 with
three times as many aircraft-carriers as the US? How many carriers did Japan
and the US have in September 1945? Why was that?

Do you have enough men of military age? In 1945, Germany was reduced to using
teenagers and old men as soldiers. Meanwhile both the US and the Soviets had
plenty of military-age manpower left.

High technology is a help, but not the be-all and end-all most people think it
is. The Germans had the most advanced weaponry in WW2 (jet aircraft, advanced
rocket missiles, etc), but they were swamped by both the US and the Soviets
producing overwhelming amounts of "good-enough" weapons. (It's no use having a
plane that has a 100:1 kill-ratio if the enemy can throw 101 planes at it.)

A last point to ponder. The next war will be the West against the Rest. China
BY ITSELF has more man-power and more manufacturing capacity than ALL OF THE
WEST COMBINED (US+Europe).

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gnusty_gnurc
I think China faces a larger threat of its people revolting against
authoritarianism than war with the US. Predictions like these are pretty
useless in any event.

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Trasmatta
What do people here think the actual chance of a war with China is, in the
next 10-15 years?

I have no idea personally, but the thought of it scares the shit out of me.

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platinumrad
A hot war with cruise missiles and carriers like this piece is fantasizing
about? Extremely low.

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Trasmatta
Okay, yeah, that's kind of what I was thinking. Trade wars, a cold war,
economic war, proxy wars all seem plausible, but the type of war this article
seems to be going on about doesn't seem to make sense. How would a war like
that even happen without devolving into nuclear warfare, which surely neither
country wants?

I have to admit I'm pretty naive about geopolitics, though.

