
Why are people getting worse at “The Price Is Right”? - augustocallejas
https://qz.com/1740513/why-are-people-getting-worse-at-the-price-is-right/
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didgeoridoo
I’d love to see some data on whether MSRP and average actual price paid have
diverged over the years. It does feel like everything is perpetually
“discounted” these days. If Price is Right is using the manufacturer’s list
price, this would help explain why contestants undershoot more now — because
the prices they tend to see advertised are in fact ~20% lower.

~~~
taneq
> It does feel like everything is perpetually “discounted” these days.

Agreed, most of our general supermarket shopping seems to be on some
significant "discount" since most of the time, to the point where we consider
that the 'real' price and will avoid buying things when they're not
discounted.

~~~
Spivak
My general rule for shopping is that the real price of an item is the lowest
price that it routinely goes "on sale" for.

Some examples (in my area):

\- The real price of a can of Coke at my grocery store is $.25/can or
$3.00/12pk

\- The real price of Aerie underwear is $3.50/pair.

\- The real price of KitchenAid stand mixers is $189.99

~~~
cgriswald
I do that mentally as well, but I generally ignore the word “sale”, and just
focus on the most frequent low price.

Around a decade ago I regularly bought a particular food product for $10.99.
Then one week it was 13.99. The following week it was “on sale” for 11.99.
Then it went up to 12.99 for a few weeks before going back to 10.99. It was
eye opening and I also learned to stock certain products.

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NickBusey
The article starts by saying and showing with a graph, that people are now
underestimating prices more than they used to.

It then ends with this quote:

> If you ever find yourself on the game show, the lesson from this research is
> that whatever you think the price is, your estimate should, as the host
> says, “come on down.”

Is it just me, or is this advice backwards, and based on the data and graph,
you should add around 15% to your estimate to not overshoot the 20% average
under-estimate?

~~~
tempestn
I thought the same thing. I expect it's just a mistake, but it could make
sense in a way: it's possible over-estimates of price aren't counted, because
any amount over and you lose. So if only successful guesses are averaged, only
the negative side of the variance is going to be shown in the graphs.

If that's true and in reality variance in both directions is higher than it
used to be, you might want to play it safe by reducing your guess, to limit
the chances of going over.

... but that would probably still be a good way to lose the game, so most
likely the author just got mixed up.

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jedberg
None of those things are the reason. The reason is simple. The Price is Right
use MSRP. Back in the day, with only a few outlets, it was hard to get
something less than MSRP.

Today, it's almost impossible to find something _at_ MSRP. There are so many
outlets and our information on pricing is so good, stores have to compete by
offering discounts.

~~~
RandomBacon
I have a funny (IMO) anecdote: I used to be a cashier at a major regional
chain. I once had a customer complain that an item rang up _higher_ than the
MSRP printed on it. I told the customer, 'MSRP stands for the average
suggested retail price and that because it's an average, sometimes the actual
price will be higher.' The customer didn't say anything else and bought the
item (didn't ask for a manager or anything!).

~~~
reaperducer
In most American states the customer is entitled, by law, to the lowest
advertised or marked price. The store must honor that price.

In some cities, they're required to give the customer the item for free if the
price at the register doesn't match what's on the product or on the shelf. My
grandmother was notorious for holding up checkout lines for this reason.

~~~
tomcam
Citation needed-I think this is an urban legend. Because it doesn’t account
for innocent mistakes, which could be made with no knowledge of the stores.
For example, an inexperienced staff member putting the wrong labels on.

~~~
reaperducer
_Citation needed-I think this is an urban legend_

Citation (Wal-Mart): [https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2012/03/21/wal-mart-to-
pay-2...](https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2012/03/21/wal-mart-to-pay-2-1m-for-
overcharging-customers/)

Citation (Walgreens): [https://www.smdailyjournal.com/news/local/walgreens-to-
pay-m...](https://www.smdailyjournal.com/news/local/walgreens-to-pay-m-over-
pricing-expiration-date-
violations/article_b26ec3ae-0631-11e8-a8c8-1b01ddf4e5a9.html)

Citation (Whole Foods): [https://www.organicauthority.com/buzz-news/whole-
foods-marke...](https://www.organicauthority.com/buzz-news/whole-foods-market-
caught-grossly-overcharging-on-pre-packaged-food-items)

Citation (Best Buy):
[https://www.cnbc.com/id/18846852](https://www.cnbc.com/id/18846852)

I could easily pull up several hundred more, but I'm on a VPN routed to
another country and having a hard time getting U.S. news results.

~~~
michaelcampbell
Keep going then, because literally none of those mention a "law" about getting
the item for free on a mismatch of charged price and advertised price.

~~~
reaperducer
From the very first link:

"Consumers should feel confident that the price on the shelf will be the same
price they are charged at the cash register,” said Attorney General Harris.
“Californians who shop at Wal-Mart should know that they have the right to ask
for the appropriate discount.”

Are you under the impression that the attorney general of California is making
up consumer rights that do not exist as law?

"12024.2. (a) It is unlawful for any person, at the time of sale of a
commodity, to do any of the following: (1) Charge an amount greater than the
price, or to compute an amount greater than a true extension of a price per
unit, that is then advertised, posted, marked, displayed, or quoted for that
commodity. (2) Charge an amount greater than the lowest price posted on the
commodity itself or on a shelf tag that corresponds to the commodity,
notwithstanding any limitation of the time period for which the posted price
is in effect."

[https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySectio...](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=BPC&sectionNum=12024.2)

~~~
rahimnathwani
The section of law you quoted says that the retailer can't charge a higher
price than that on the shelf. So, if someone approaches them willing to buy
the item at the advertised price, they could:

a) agree to sell at the advertised price (legal)

b) agree to sell only at a higher price (illegal)

c) refuse to sell

If they choose (c), then they're not in violation of the excerpt you quoted,
as they're not 'charging' at all.

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JonathonW
Wasn't "The Price Is Right" changed several years back specifically to make
the game less predictable-- using less common products, for example, or
changing the options on cars? [https://www.esquire.com/news-
politics/a7922/price-is-right-p...](https://www.esquire.com/news-
politics/a7922/price-is-right-perfect-bid-0810/)

~~~
unreal37
They used to repeat the same products over and over, and now they try to never
repeat a product or do variations of the product at different prices.

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zigzaggy
For the most entertaining version of the answer, watch this really cool movie
(1) with math, intrigue, and daytime television all rolled into one. It’s
called The Perfect Bid. (Not affiliated just a fan.) I think I watched it on
Amazon or Netflix.

1\. [https://m.imdb.com/title/tt6854248/](https://m.imdb.com/title/tt6854248/)

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mortdeus
Doesn't inflation directly lead to a decrease in the percentage of the
likeliness you are going to be able to hit the correct number for the same
kind of products?

Also I think Apple and China kinda destroyed the whole "relative value,
everything only has a 5% markup compared to their cost" price evaluation
model. You know the thing that used to allow people like our Grandparents to
be able to afford things like the American Dream on a single poor person's
salary.

That's my theory anyways. Or maybe people are just getting lazy and not
studying as hard as they used to. Or perhaps Bob Barker finally kicked his
cocaine habit and no longer needs to keep taking the bribes?

~~~
soperj
Bob Barker hasn't hosted the show in over a decade.

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jbpnoy6fifty
I worked in the Casino Technology industry and learned that Casino's generally
prefer non-skill-based games in their game product line. This makes sense when
predicting the financial outlook, based on customer behavior and spend
profiles. In my opinion, in order to 'give out' less to their game
participants, they most likely provided ways to randomize the win-ratio so
that consumers win less, so it is less "skill-based"

~~~
harimau777
Where you working in America?

My understanding was that in the US casino games were required to be non-skill
based. Is that not the case? Or maybe it differs by state jurisdiction?

~~~
GuB-42
There is a bit of skill involved in Blackjack, and a lot in of it in Poker.
Some slot machines also allow you to manually stop the reels in a way that can
influence the outcome, though I don't think they are common in US casinos.

The laws are usually the opposite: games of chance are more tightly regulated
than games of skill.

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hobofan
How about: "People don't care as much about the TV show anymore, so they have
less practice before participating"

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learnstats2
From the research: 'contestants have increasingly underestimated the true
price of the good over time with an increasingly greater magnitude, suggesting
that individuals have become more inattentive to prices.'

Does it suggest that? Or does it suggest that underestimating is a better
strategy?

~~~
unreal37
Article mistakes the actual price you pay for something with the
manufacturer's (fictional) suggested retail price.

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natch
I loved that a guy was able to win a Tesla because their pricing is so
transparent. Yeah the prices change often but at any given time the price you
get is the price everyone gets, no haggling.

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dnautics
I would guess it's cumulative inflation of the nominal value: if something is
500 and then 750 later there's more numbers to guess in the space altogether.

~~~
dannyw
The effect is measured in percentages.

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mdrzn
Is there any app that allows to track prices in real stores over time?
Something like CamelCamelCamel for real stores (not only US) would be great,
I'd be down to input prices manually if I could track them over time.
Something more than an excel sheet tho.

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dr-detroit
Inflation, ya Boomer. You didn't notice because 20 years ago you purchased the
last of all the appliances and things you'd need until your death day.

~~~
dang
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