
China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific - smacktoward
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/china-army-navy/
======
chriselles
I don't see any reason to panic.

In raw numbers the US Navy is technologically and numerically dominant.

But China will increasingly be able to surge "mass" in terms of both
technology and numbers to dominate its near shore and achieve theatre level
superiority.

China is building out it's military in a way that is akin to the US Reagan led
1980's.

But what concerns me the most is not PLAN versus US Navy, but China/BATH
versus US/FAANG+.

We are not likely to see a single navy dominate the world's oceans ever again.

But what about a single country dominating the world's geodigital platforms?

~~~
myroon5
What is the H in BATH?

~~~
yegle
Huawei

~~~
chriselles
Bullseye:

Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei

I think they collectively represent a far bigger long term threat to relative
US superiority than some Chinese warships.

Something has to pay for that military capability.

I wonder what scared the Soviets more?

The US Navy or the Marshall Plan?

Marshall plan was $100B One Belt, One Road is multi trillion.

Use debt trap diplomacy, nudging, and a decent value proposition to get
everyone on BATH

One Platform, One Network

Bye bye US Dollar.

Bye bye US Navy capability and capacity.

~~~
NotSammyHagar
Yes, those companies are a thread. Our leaders in the us think because we are
christians or something god chose us to have military power. In reality, we
have economic power that let the us have the ability to get all this military
power. The source of the ability (economic might) seems to be almost
deliberately being reduced at this time by a certain leader.

------
ilaksh
I guess it's probably not very realistic but to me the only way to get to real
security that you can count on to last is to change the whole paradigm.

I mean the basic premise is that the bottom line for control is deadly force.

Maybe there really is no alternative but I think it's worth mentioning that as
long is that is the operating mode, there is no real security for human life.
You can certainly have extended periods without major wars but as long as the
paradigm remains, it's always just a matter of time before the next mass
killing starts.

I mean as far as Taiwan goes, it's right next to China, there is a long
history. The paradigm is that you have a right to whatever you can take by
force. If they get to the point where they can invade successfully and don't
think that it is _actually_ going to start WW3, they may feel obligated to do
it. Because yes it would probably result in a large loss of life, but the
international operating mode is that serious conflicts are resolved with
machines designed to destroy property and lives.

~~~
darawk
You can't change that paradigm. Everything ultimately cashes out in force,
unless you want to invent a new universe with new physics or something.

~~~
stcredzero
What usually happens nowadays, is that technology greatly increases the amount
of force which can be cashed out for. The start of the Nuclear age was
literally applying a "new" (heretofore not yet applied to war) physics.

Applying space forces actively to war could well be applying a new part of the
universe to war. (Airplanes and submarines were also this.)

~~~
shshhdhs
Ok. How does that change the paradigm? It’s still a use of force ...

~~~
albntomat0
In potentially the same way that nuclear weapons did. No one can "win" a
nuclear exchange, unlike those who thought many of the previous non-nuclear
large conflicts would be over quickly (both World Wars and the US Civil War
come to mind). Nuclear weapons are still use of force, but provide deterrence
in a way conventional forces can not.

------
woodandsteel
I don't like this development but I don't see what can be done to counter it
in the long run. For over two thousand years China dominated East Asia. The
American dominance since the end of WWII was due to China being flat on its
back, but now that China is industrializing, it seems destined to come to an
end. That's because China has a far larger population, and this is its home
waters.

~~~
em3rgent0rdr
> "I don't see what can be done to counter it in the long run"

All the democracies of the world could ally.

------
vondur
The US still has a huge Navy compared to China, and far more allies in the
region than China does. In theory, we just have to make more advanced weapon
technology available to some our allies in the region. I'd support helping
India modernize their military with equipment, training and joint exercises.

~~~
stcredzero
_The US still has a huge Navy compared to China, and far more allies in the
region than China does._

This might well change if China takes back Taiwan. If that happens, China
could engineer a situation where it's better for the local powers to cozy up
to China, than to take the side of the distant US. Even though the US, as a
distant hegemon, is the better option, the US might not have the power to keep
China at bay any more, so the lesser of the two evils for everyone could be
seen to give in.

If I were in the Defense Department, I would be creating SOSUS-like arrays
near Taiwan, Japan, Korea, and the Philippines, plus an R&D program to create
a swarm of super quiet autonomous midget submarines to go along with it.
Basically, take unprecedented steps to make it tremendously dangerous to
invade Taiwan, even if China has air superiority. (I very much doubt we'd be
able to prevent China from getting that in the long term, even temporarily.)

~~~
expressrunning
Taiwan Can Win a War With China

“One of the central hurdles facing the offensive is surprise. The PLA simply
will not have it. The invasion will happen in April or October. Because of the
challenges posed by the strait’s weather, a transport fleet can only make it
across the strait in one of these two four-week windows.“

“There are only 13 beaches on Taiwan’s western coast that the PLA could
possibly land at. Each of these has already been prepared for a potential
conflict.”

[https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-
wi...](https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-with-china/)

~~~
JabavuAdams
Assumptions like this have a way of getting countries invaded. They're true
until they're not true.

~~~
steve19
The only assumption that matters is the assumption the USA will defend the
country and not look away to prevent a world war. The moment that assumption
does not hold true...

------
jvanderbot
Anyone interested in understanding the balance of power in China/Pacific: I
enjoyed "Destined for War", "World Order" (big section for China), and "On
China". I'd welcome more suggestions.

~~~
Leary
"In the Shadow of the Thucydides Trap: International Relations Theory and the
Prospects for Peace in U.S.-China Relations"

[https://link.springer.com/epdf/10.1007/s11366-018-9581-4?aut...](https://link.springer.com/epdf/10.1007/s11366-018-9581-4?author_access_token=BsSaesGqgmoiqYU6B5UWvPe4RwlQNchNByi7wbcMAY7CRHIo139G2zhBXB10dTA9YhfVijPc_TuAxH_CpK46WZT40Qk6hF7v3fO8fYy8AwICbdIMFU3SIOzk7Jmg9tPuOh_4GlYFf2R295_PNKH3FA%3D%3D)

------
drenvuk
Great. I doubt this is the beginning of WW3 but considering what's happening
with Vietnam and Myanmar I'd bet that we'll have a new hegemony that Taiwan
falls under if nothing changes in the next 5 years or so. Does anyone have any
books on the economics of war/war of economics and such? I'm wondering where
else this could go.

~~~
ilaksh
What's happening with Vietnam and Myanmar?

~~~
drenvuk
Vietnam
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sdk3wYxDzk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sdk3wYxDzk)
[https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-
economy/article/2179378/v...](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-
economy/article/2179378/vietnam-tested-multinationals-seeking-trade-war-
detour-avoid)

Myanmar [http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Forty-per-cent-of-
Myanmar%E2%...](http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Forty-per-cent-of-
Myanmar%E2%80%99s-government-debt-held-by-China-46071.html)
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Myanmar_relation...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Myanmar_relations)
The civil war there is complicated as heck, Myanmar is doing everything it can
to get away from China but China is the only one who seems to be willing to do
some partnerships because it also helps them as well. India, Bangladesh,
Thailand not so much, they're happy taking the people desperate to get away
from Myanmar's conflicts for cheap labor and trafficking.

------
forkLding
“For Southeast Asian neighbors, China’s navy may be intimidating, but its
prowess is limited to waters near the country’s shores.”

\- A retired PLA officer

^This quote from the article basically summarizes the whole article. The rest
of the content is speculation or facts that prove the Chinese navy isn't as
powerful as the US navy, except for anti-ship missiles.

------
crag
The other problems China has is resources and cash. As the article points out,
if you include maintenance and upgrades, naval ships tend to be 3x the cost of
building them. That's not cheap.

And resource wise, it is reliant on outside suppliers. Which also cost. Unlike
America, China's fiances aren't infinite (America is due to oil).

I have no doubt China can easily afford invading Taiwan. I do have doubts
about Japan though. Japan is mobilizing right now as well.

~~~
est31
They are busy at replacing those outside suppliers with their own technology.
Their entire economic policy is revolving around the goal of becoming self-
reliant.

------
godzillabrennus
America needs more advancements but political nonsense has put the money into
I’ll fated programs like the F:35.

~~~
drenvuk
That's normal in every empire, right? Enough people start siphoning off of
whatever system is in place in order to fatten their wallets and then gtfo
before the populace kills them or another country/invade steals everything
from them.

The newish breed (maybe not new but more recent) seems to be to destabilize
countries which can be strip mined cleaned while everything is just barely out
of control of the local government, or you just pay off the government which
may just be a military junta and buddies because they understand that if they
try to pull a Gadaffi they get bombed out of existence and replaced because
they're not big enough.

------
staunch
What is so worrying about China's massive military build up is that there's no
benign explanation. China has long had enough conventional power to defend
itself and more than enough nuclear weapons to hold up its side of MAD.

It really just looks a lot like the king of China is preparing to start a war.
It seems like in the best case he is preparing to take Taiwan and in the worst
case he's planning to take all of Asia while perhaps his ally, the king of
Russia, takes Europe.

The simple fact is that if these two dictators can figure out how take out the
U.S. then there's nothing stopping them from taking over the entire world. The
giant has been sleeping since it declared victory in the cold war decades ago.

No one can sleep well until the U.S. massively revamps its nuclear triad and
either Japan or Europe create their own highly independent nuclear response
capability. The future of humanity is currently relying on a single point of
failure and it may already be too late.

~~~
Balero
"No one can sleep well until the U.S. massively revamps its nuclear triad and
either Japan or Europe create their own highly independent nuclear response
capability. The future of humanity is currently relying on a single point of
failure and it may already be too late."

Both the UK and France have a completely independent nuclear response.

"What is so worrying about China's massive military build up is that there's
no benign explanation. China has long had enough conventional power to defend
itself and more than enough nuclear weapons to hold up its side of MAD."

Then there is even less explanation for the USA spending many times more on
their military.

"It really just looks a lot like the king of China is preparing to start a
war. It seems like in the best case he is preparing to take Taiwan and in the
worst case he's planning to take all of Asia while perhaps his ally, the king
of Russia, takes Europe."

None of these countries have kings.

"he simple fact is that if these two dictators can figure out how take out the
U.S. then there's nothing stopping them from taking over the entire world. The
giant has been sleeping since it declared victory in the cold war decades
ago."

There is plenty to stop these. Russia is a waning power, with demographics
working against it, and a regionally unimportant economy (smaller than Italy,
which is also not going to take over the world). China, whilst growing fast,
does not have the capability to project power and has a number of internal
problems. This is all without mentioning it's rivals in the area, Japan, which
is re-arming to a degree, and India, which is also well on the way to being a
major economic and military power, if a few years behind.

~~~
staunch
> _Both the UK and France have a completely independent nuclear response._

Small nuclear arsenals that are not highly redundant. They do not have MAD-
level nuclear forces.

> _None of these countries have kings._

This is just semantics, they do have kings in all but name.

> _Russia is a waning power..._

They have enough tactical nukes to take out every major military force in
Europe and enough conventional forces to clean up what's left.

> _China, whilst growing fast, does not have the capability to project
> power..._

They don't have to project power at all. They just have to disarm the
militaries of South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, which are all on their doorstep.

