

Show HN: Apps ranked by valuation - diziet
https://sensortower.com/ios/leaderboard/estimated-app-worth/all-categories

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mashmac2
How are these valuations calculated?

For example, Instagram has an estimated value of ~$4.6 Billion, but it's
actual value (based on purchase by FB) is ~$1 Billion. The page doesn't
provide a clear link on how they estimated the valuations, either...

Edit: If you click on one of them, then mouse-over the valuation on that page,
if offers the following explanation:

"To calculate App Worth, we take into account many factors and metrics:

\- User Estimates

\- User Activity

\- International Reach

\- Revenue Estimates

\- Sensor Tower Secret Sauce™"

~~~
megablast
Not sure why this is secret. A formula would be useful, but I guess this is
just a fun estimate.

~~~
diziet
Part of the reason for that is that I didn't want people gaming the algorithm.
The things it looks at are user numbers, revenue estimates (very good here~)
and internationalization when computing the worth.

~~~
blowski
Some of the valuations raise a bit of an eyebrow - e.g. BatteryHD valued at
nearly $41M.

* In the case of apps that are native versions of web services (e.g. Flickr, Twitter) it's impossible to separate the value of the app from the service, so is your valuation of the whole service?

* How do you factor in possible future growth, based on potential size of market, current market saturation, and possible revenue streams? It seems like they would be very difficult to automate.

So the valuation of the app-maker is probably more interesting than the value
of the app itself. A company that has made one very successful app is more
likely to make other successful apps, because of branding and experience.

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netcan
Accuracy aside, this is interesting.

The thing that always sands out to me in any "thing - value" list always how
little correlation there is between hard/complicated things and value.

Whatsapp vs Viber. Kindle vs Bible. Waze/Google maps vs Urban Spoon/Yelp.
Creating an awesome bible app seems incredibly doable.

~~~
diziet
Yep, creating an awesome Bible app is doable. Getting people to download and
use it, that's the hard part!

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kranner
Apparently there's a lot more money in Bible apps than I had imagined.

If this ordering is close to being accurate, it's a wonderful resource to
reflect on to understand what consumers truly care about.

~~~
diziet
We've also got an ordering based on number of ratings:
[https://sensortower.com/ios/leaderboard/estimated-app-
worth/...](https://sensortower.com/ios/leaderboard/estimated-app-worth/all-
categories)

With the Bible app, I was surprised too when it showed up -- but the app has
over 30 million users. It's quite bigger than a lot of funded social networks,
it is just a matter of monetizing or engaging the users properly. Religion is
a big market!

~~~
kranner
Thanks for this resource!

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cpursley
I'm a valuer/appraiser by trade and would be interested to know how you're
making calculations. Direct cap or irr (DCF)? A dollar amount multiplied per
estimated user?

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soup10
Dunno how accurate this is for the biggest and free apps, but I own a medium
size paid app and it seems reasonable. The search/keyword graphs they have are
interesting too, haven't seen that data before.

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codeka
I wouldn't put any games in the top ten (or even top 50). I don't see Candy
Crush or Clash of Clans being around six months from now, so I don't see how
it could be worth anywhere near $1.36B...

~~~
diziet
Well, given that Clash of Clans has been around and in the top 3~ grossing
consistently for the last year, and Candy Crush has been at #1 for a year and
a half, and neither show any substantial signs of slowing down and are
improving on game mechanics and monetization strategies I would take your
wager. These apps are very international and in the App Store terms, a year is
quite a long time.

~~~
scholia
I'm with you on Candy Crush (my family has numerous addicts) but I'm not sure
it's worth so much more than Angry Birds.

Angry Birds also makes money offline (soft toys etc) but presumably that's not
covered in your table....

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k-mcgrady
Not exactly sure how the valuations are calculated but they don't seem too
accurate. I looked at my own apps and some that should have appeared didn't,
others that shouldn't have appeared did.

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irollboozers
Looks great! One curious thing I'd be interested to see is the sum of the
values of all the apps and how it compares with Apple's estimates.

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bruceboughton
So:

\- Pandora's app is worth $1.7bn

\- Google's Search app is only worth $0.7bn

Riiiiight...

~~~
netcan
If pandora didn't have the pandora app, it would be out of business. If google
didn't have the google search app.. it would probably not be noticeable on its
balance sheets.

~~~
bruceboughton
Pandora existed before it had an app so I'm not sure it would be out of
business. A significant proportion of its business may go through the app but
that's not the same thing.

Google is a vastly bigger scale business though so I'm surprised such a small
percentage of its profit is attributed to the app. Especially as they are
pushing Google Now.

In general, though, I'm not sure the attribution of profits to apps is
consistent for multi-platform businesses.

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stevenp
I will happily sell my apps for the price listed. Who should I contact for my
check? :)

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Gurrewe
They seem to have mixed up Sweden with Slovakia. Funny.

