
Ask HN: Where is the correct data on coronavirus? - ContigentVal
Imagine the scenario (which is likely in some countries) that most of the population contracts COVID-19 in a very short timeframe.<p>The most important question for most of people in the Western world is then:
For a healthy person of my age, what is the chance I will require hospitalization if I contract coronavirus?<p>This question does not depend on R0, measures taken to prevent the spread of the disease, population distribution, ..., nothing. Therefore, it should not differ much across different circumstances.<p>Except, the relevant data from different countries are contradictory by orders of magnitude.<p>Is there a single country in the world that has a nontrivial amount of cases, and has actual data and not absolute garbage?
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jacquesm
This sheet is the best that I've found. Yes, you are right, the data is
suspect. But as long as there is no mandatory reporting for this it will
remain a political football because countries are comparing with each other.

[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1RIXWF7wCX-
CihFQz...](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1RIXWF7wCX-
CihFQzNPfb4t26_t9NlReHj2GH2q3Euac/htmlview?sle=true&pru=AAABcPzwy1c*5pN0dR90CoNSBsAsap1HnA#gid=1520583566)

The best way to approach the figures is to look at serious cases (requiring
hospitalization) and deaths. Those are numbers are a lot harder to cook than
cases.

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ContigentVal
Unfortunately, this does not answer the question. In the case of overwhelmed
hospitals, the ratio (deaths / serious cases) should be bounded from below by
a constant close to 1.

The number of serious cases is the only useful datapoint, but this gives a
very bad lower bound on the question, even if the age distribution is known.
This data is similar to what Worldometer has, and that is just a mix of
confused and misleading information.

