
I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too - loumal
https://builtin.com/software-engineering-perspectives/dot-com-bust-programmer
======
seisvelas
I started during the 2008 recession. I think the people who hurt the most back
then were the people who'd just attended 6 week Ruby on Rails bootcamps and
gotten 70k/year jobs (which was a cliche at the time). Suddenly, that was no
longer realistic.

And even among them, the passionate people found a way. I got into tech with
no education during the recession just on psychotic passion alone. I was
working at <physical job> but hacking all night. Eventually I convinced
someone to hire me as a sysadmin and it was game on.

I intuit that if you are insanely dedicated enough the universe has a weird
appreciation for that kind of thing, and eventually throws you a bone. I know
it's wrong and irrational but everytime I've tried that it's worked, so
there's some anecdotal personal truth.

Conversely, the (completely respectable and valid) 'I just need a solid way to
provide' people get fucked the hardest every time. Cosmic irony.

Maybe there's some real psychology behind it though. Doing something for
practical necessity is a weaker motivation than personal obsession. According
to the Overjustification Effect, extrinsic rewards harm intrinsic motivation
([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overjustification_effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overjustification_effect)).

Meh, who knows. I know some people hiring Python devs in Mexico if anyone is
hurting and lives here.

~~~
andreilys
“ I intuit that if you are insanely dedicated enough the universe has a weird
appreciation for that kind of thing, and eventually throws you a bone. I know
it's wrong and irrational but everytime I've tried that it's worked”

Also known as survivorship bias.

~~~
DmitryOlshansky
Or rather the old adege of:

“The luck favors the prepared”

~~~
Ididntdothis
People just remember that there are no guarantees. Dedication and hard work
help a lot but you may still fail.

~~~
thatcat
It's so hard to know when to give up on something you're dedicated to when it
has high pay off but a moderately low chance of success.

------
adtac
In the age of RSUs, graduating in the middle of a recession is financially
incredible IF you managed to get the job before all the hiring freezes AND it
is at one of the publicly traded big N companies with good trade volume. Your
RSU price is lower, you get more stock units for the same dollar amount at the
time of joining in your initial grant (arguably much more important than
refreshers).

I have a friend who recently got his MSFT joining RSUs at $130 a few weeks
ago.

~~~
thebean11
Don't count your chickens before they vest, in 6 months somebody might be
getting them at $90

~~~
adtac
It's advisable to hold your RSUs for at least one year for a favourable tax
treatment, so the 33% discount he got is still very good; he's likely not
going to sell his RSUs in six months.

He got the offer and decided on his start date way back in August of last year
so any luck he happens by is good luck. He could've chosen to be luckier if
the stock price goes down further, but I'd say this is pretty lucky as it is
already for something he can't control.

Edit: ignore the tax part, I think I'm wrong there.

~~~
foota
Isn't the favorable tax treatment only on the appreciation from the vest
price?

~~~
adtac
Ah I'm not too sure. That might be the case.

~~~
dmoy
RSU is taxed at vest, exactly like cash bonus for tax purposes. If you sell it
immediately, it's _really_ exactly like cash.

~~~
arcticbull
And you can't offset your capital losses with RSU vesting, _really really
exactly_ like cash haha.

------
austincheney
Programming for the web is my primary career. I first got into it late 1997. I
am astonished at how incompetent it is. The fact the OP made a career out of
it and made some money is hardly amazing. For the level of talent required
contrasted against the average compensation I am surprised not everybody is
trying it. You too could be earning 6 figures in a low cost of living economy
after completing a boot camp and 2 years experience not being any good.

Don’t really know how to do your job? No problem. After 30 years web
technology standards have largely solidified and cross browser concerns are no
longer noticeable. If you work on the front end a large framework and 10000
NPM packages can be pushed into a website to do all the heavy lifting. If
that’s not enough jQuery is still a thing. If that’s still not enough the
business will simply hire additional bodies to fill the gaps of accessibility
and any original problems that might come up. The backend is pretty similar
with Spring MVC, Maven, and tons of data packages that perform data or service
handling for spring.

The last half of my corporate career has been spent trying to untangle the
spaghetti mistakes of other developers who probably shouldn’t have writing any
unsupervised code as opposed to writing original feature logic.

I know many developers have lost their jobs in the current economic crisis.
This includes both good developers and really bad developers. In all the bad
and disruption that comes from that I hope businesses will become more
thoughtful about simply throwing money away on web technologies and
developers.

Historically businesses have vaguely realized just how bad and incompetent
their web technology is but never did anything to fix it. Some businesses,
even large mega .coms, would go bust than fix it (and their business). Really
the only answer ever applied was _hire better talent_ without defining what
that is and without any plan on what to do with or how to apply that new
talent. That is a leadership/business problem and not a technology or talent
problem. Hiring is not the answer but instead only feeds the problem. It makes
sense though, bad leaders aren’t going to blame themselves for problems like
this and it’s generally not their money they are throwing away on bad
decisions and empty solutions.

Other industries have solved these problems long ago. They have things like
broker/agent relationships, licensing, continuing education, and personal
liability. The incompetence of software does not want any of this. They want
the least possible effort to immediate high income.

~~~
bsanr
The tech industry is a class-, gender-, and race-biased inter-generational
wealth transfer scheme masquerading as an industry. Past a post of base-level
competency, and excluding strategy-level technical roles, employment and
compensation is based on identity and not proficiency.

It's the same as with industry labor in the last half of the 20th century.
Every person who retired with a pension was not an unequivocal value-add to
their employer; there was a need to support and enable the consumptive
lifestyles of the public (but only the "right people"), lest the entire system
implode.

No one wants to admit that they're mere cogs, compensated for not gumming up
the money machine. They want to believe that they have value. And they do, but
it's implicit in their identity, not necessarily their productivity. If you
don't believe it, ask how much your colleagues in India make.

~~~
filoleg
>ask how much your colleagues in India make

My colleagues in India, on average, make less than me. My Indian colleagues in
the US (who grew up and went to school in India) make about the same as me.

I dont see what point this thought exercise was supposed to illustrate, aside
from demonstrating that labor markets in different countries are different,
and so is the cost of living.

------
meowzero
I too graduated with a CS degree from a highly ranked technical University.

It was probably the worst time for recent graduate with a CS degree. You hear
news of all jobs going to India. Nobody in the US was hiring developers. In
fact, they were getting all laid off.

I had to scrape by taking odd jobs here and there. I worked as a short-order
cook, made jewelry in a factory, worked at a UPS warehouse, etc. It felt
hopeless and felt like I wasted money and time getting a CS degree.

Eventually I joined a tiny web-shop for super low pay. I was underpaid for
many years afterwards. In 2006, I joined a "real company" but still was
underpaid. I quickly left that company and started making more money
elsewhere. I got nervous in 2008 since that recession came right when my
career started to get good and stable. But I was safe, and it was smooth
sailing.

My story has survivor bias. But it took a lot of hustling, grit, depression,
etc. from 2001 to 2007. It can take a long time to get back on your feet, at
least in my case.

~~~
mywittyname
This is part of the reason we are / were paid so much recently. Hardly any
young people went into technology from dot-com until around 12 or so (unless
they were passionate about it), precisely because everyone was telling kids
that programming was so easily outsourced that you'll never make money at it.

There's a distinct dips in the number of 30-40 year olds in technology. There
are plenty of older people, and there are now tons of younger people, but few
in between. From age 20 to about 30, I was always the youngest person on my
team. Now this is no longer the case, but those who are younger are 10+ years
younger.

People today are amazed when I tell them I only made $10/hr in my first
programming gig. People who graduated in the 90s were making $40-50k out of
school and today it's not uncommon to get 70k+ in the mid-west. The early 00s
were a different time.

~~~
throwawayjava
$15/hr at mine, although if I include freelancing prior to that it's probably
closer to $8. It's kind of nice. My floor is so incredibly low that the "scary
times" don't look so scary.

CS was a contrarian career bet in the few years after dotcom; you didn't do it
if you were listening to the wise old men and wanted a good paying job.
Realizing that opportunity -- or, more commonly, doing what you wanted to and
not worrying about the $, paid off incredibly well for those who took
advantage from between 2004ish and today. I don't think fortunes will change
for our cohort; there's still a huge dearth of principal engineers in pretty
much every subarea of software engineering.

The enrollment surge also hasn't yet effected CS PhDs, because undergrad
enrollment wasn't matched by a corresponding growth in phd enrollment. That
might change in the next 5 years.

But the entry level positions seem extraordinarily competitive at the moment;
I've _never_ had this many qualified applicants (and that goes for before
covid19 as well). The only saving grace is that more and more non-programming
positions require some programming skills, and those folks seem to have a hard
time recruiting/hiring.

~~~
meowzero
I think it's true. Around 2010 is when CS got hot again.

A few years ago, we interviewed some new graduates. I couldn't believe how
smart they were. They seemed a lot smarter than I was when I graduated. Heck,
they seemed smarter than me right now. There are definitely a ton of highly
qualified, recent grads these days.

I think the main thing we ( as in our generation of late 30's to 40's) have to
worry about these days is ageism. We might become obsolete quick if businesses
think the new, smart, cheaper kids can replace us aging ones.

------
aluminussoma
This brings back so many memories. I graduated with a Comp Sci degree from a
well-regarded university. I had friends who graduated a year earlier return to
school for a different degree because there was just nothing available with a
degree in CS. So demoralizing.

I graduated a year later and took a job making a little over minimum wage. At
that time, the most influential executives at my workplaces said software
engineering in America was dead, to be replaced by cheaper outsourced Indians,
and then other countries once they became too expensive. It set the course of
my career. I am in tech but not a Software Engineer. Had I graduated a year
later, I am sure I would be a Software Engineer today.

The fear and feeling of instability in this industry never left me.

~~~
Consultant32452
I'm pushing 40, graduated high school in 2000. I heard a lot of the same
"wisdom." For some reason I just really wanted to be a software developer so I
stuck with it even though the dot com bubble was in full catastrophe mode. I'm
glad I did, but I can't claim magic wisdom. I don't know how kids are supposed
to get good life/career advice. I surely didn't.

Perhaps the only thing I can reasonably suggest is that people create a "skill
stack" instead of a skill. I'm a good coder, but coding is probably among my
least economically valuable skills. My most valuable skill, by far, is
communication. I can explain technical things to non-technical people and do
so in a way that doesn't make them feel dumb. Part of the key there is I know
they're not dumb. That wins you a lot of favors. My second most valuable skill
is having a basic understanding of economics/business, how incentives work,
how business decisions are made, etc. This helps me anticipate the needs of
others at work and help solve their real problems which they may not even see
clearly themselves.

If the stats offer any credibility... I work from home full time and have for
nearly a decade. I've got 2 concurrent contracts going on right now. I'm
expecting to make >$300k this year. I live in a 2nd tier city with a low cost
of living, you've heard of it but it's not NY/LA/etc. I've never even applied
to a FAANG type place.

~~~
mettamage
What kind of job do you do? You sound like me, with the exception that I'm at
the start of my career and am getting rejected everywhere the past year.

I've been a coding bootcamp instructor and was praised by students for my
communication. My friends are mostly entrepreneurs, consultants and business
people and I talk quite a bit about business with them and my coding skills
relatively to that are alright.

~~~
Consultant32452
I don't really have a specialty. The last 3 years I've been doing Identity and
Access Management. Before that I've done everything from physical security
systems, insurance, enterprise web development, truck dispatching, point of
sale... all over the place really.

I'm aware of how awful this is going to sound, but I'm totally unfamiliar with
the process of applying to tons of places and getting rejected. When I'm short
work I call up a gig company like TekSystems and most places I interview I get
an offer. I am not particular about the kind of work I do, so if someone meets
my $ requirement, I usually accept the first offer I get. It was always like
that, even in the early days before I had a resume/experience. I wish I had
some wisdom to offer in that regard, but I got nothing. I'm not particularly
charismatic or anything. In fact, I'm a bit on the spectrum. I'm smart, but
not crazy smart, about 120 iq if that's a thing that concerns people. I'm also
a college dropout.

To add a minor expansion on the "skill stack" concept, I'd introduce the
phrase "think like a ____." The thing I spend the most time with mentoring is
teaching people who to think like a programmer. You'd think that would come
with the degrees, but it really doesn't. Regarding your skill stack and
spending time around consultants/entrepreneurs, do you think you can think
like an entrepreneur? A person can know a lot of history facts, but not know
how to think like a historian. This is a really important threshold to get
past in the building of a skill stack. Think about something you're really
good at and think about what it means to think like one of those. Maybe you're
a gamer. Do you understand what it means to "think like a gamer?"

~~~
ritchiea
Hey I am a bit younger than you but have a very similar resume of working
contracts, never applying to FAANGs and reaching out to people/networks when I
am looking for work. I definitely feel like I'm doing well but it would be
great to speak to someone else who has succeeded at this sort of "alternative"
career path. Is there a way I can reach you to ask for some specific advice?
Or would you contact me? ritchiea at gmail dot com

~~~
dboon
I'm someone who's started the traditional career path and doesn't like it.
I've halfheartedly started a consulting firm, and I'm spending time shifting
my focus to that. I'd also love to chat with you.

thomas dot spader at gmail dot com, if you'd like to

------
wolco
I was part of the dotcom crash. I went to community college which made things
more difficult than university grads. Many people left the field in my year.
Not really sure how many programmers are left in the group today either.

After living in java throughout school I managed to get a minimum wage 6 month
contract in php and never looked back transforming that into 6 more months and
fighting out a 2500 month wage for my last 3 month contract with them.

The interview for that was tough. In the end it was myself and another person
from university who spoke in more advanced terms. The final piece was a take
home assignment and I did it quickly and the other person couldn't so I got
the job. After I got the role I would see the candidate she would come in and
have lunch with the a co-founder she connected with during the interview
process. When she found out she didn't get the role she cried in the middle of
the room for so long, very uncomfortable. There was always a bit of hate from
that co-founder after, you could tell the co-founders were fighting (they were
a couple founder team). My advice know your stuff and when you get the call
give it your all even if it looks/seems impossible.. I applied to so many jobs
before I got even that interview.

~~~
bambataa
Wow, giving you hate for a decision they made. A couple founder team is a red
flag for me.

------
Yhippa
I was in the same situation as OP. I got "lucky" in getting a job in
operations analysis instead of software development due to my poor GPA. A lot
of my friends had their much higher offers delayed or rescinded while I kept
my not-so-glamorous job at a Fortune 500.

I would say that 100% of my friends recovered and most have better career
trajectories than I. You will make it through this. One bit of advice: don't
be overly picky. Opportunity seems to favor those who do instead of sit on the
sideline.

------
ninetyfurr
All of a sudden my unsexy junior dev job at shitcorp isn't so bad.

~~~
foepys
I'm perfectly happy at my job at a very small established company.
Unbelievable freedom, no mandatory overtime, everybody is on a first name
basis with the CEO, no stress, no "PIP"s, no worries about my equity going
down the toilet, and I got my own office.

My total compensation might be half of what I could get at large corps but I
don't need to live in a city (lower rent and housing prices, fresher air) and
money isn't everything. I can commute the short way to the office via bike
which takes off even more time I spend at work.

Working at small companies can be really good.

------
geoffmunn
I graduated from university at the exact moment the dot com bust occurred, and
the job market went from fizzing to non-existent in the space of a few weeks.

I ended up working at a local charity, and then entering into a business
incubator but for a couple of years I had no money to speak of. If I felt
rich, I'd have McDonalds for lunch.

On the other hand, I was living in a cool part of town with a group of people
who I still keep in touch with - those days were the best in some ways.

So yes, it does get better, but people's expectations will need some major
adjustments. I do firmly believe that it's a good opportunity to set yourself
up for when the recovery occurs.

~~~
tmpz22
I imagine its worse now with the Student debt bubble - too many people with
100k in student loans.

~~~
barry-cotter
The average Bachelor’s graduates has $38K in debt in graduation, the price of
a new car. To get to $100K you usually need to go to graduate school.

~~~
gravypod
My college had a 30k/year tuition. 4 years of that comes out to 120k. Your
figure assumes >70% of costs are paid without debt. 30k/year is common now for
an undergraduate degree from a state school with dorm.

~~~
throwawayjava
1\. 30k/year is REALLY high for tuition. Most state flagships -- which are
some of the best universities in the entire world -- aren't that expensive.
UIUC, definitely one of the best CS departments in the world, has tuition
that's about half that per year [1]. And that's a top-tier state flagship
research university; a bit of an overkill for any but the most ambitious (phd
or md or jd or elite co.)-bound students. The regional campuses, which do an
excellent job at preparing you for typical entry level industry gigs in most
fields, have tuition closer to $10k/year [2]. If you want a "normal" life --
decent salary in exchange for a 40 hour work week, in a relatively normal
stress environment, and without attending a top-tier graduate program -- don't
go to a top-tier state flagship.

2\. Most private universities do have sticker prices in that range, but a) why
go non-elite private (e.g., mid-low tier liberal arts colleges) since they're
usually not even as good as comparable public schools, and b) almost no one
actually pays the sticker price at private universities. The average discount
factor at private universities is around 50% [3].

3\. It's definitely possible to make >$10K each year while doing university
full time. Even very conservative estimates -- state minimum wage and only
working summers/weekends with no overtime -- put the number north of $8K [4].

4\. Living at home is often an option (not always, but the percentage of
people who can't live at home and also don't qualify for need-based aid has to
be pretty small).

5\. Four years is an _upper bound_ , not a requirement! College-ready students
can and should transfer credits from high school AP, IB, or college credit
courses; one of those three options is available in the vast majority of US
high schools. Students who are not college-ready should start off at community
college, which, again, brings the price down substantially.

So, for example, if you:

* go to your local branch campus of a state university like SIU-E or UMSL,

* live at home,

* work a minimum wage job for 40 hours over the summer and on the most weekends during the school year [4], and

* come in with sophomore standing OR do you first year at community college

then you can graduate with a very modest amount of debt (less than a used car,
or possibly none at all). Cutting any one of those assumptions still keeps you
well below $100K and possibly much lower than even $30K.

Plus, some of those assumptions are conservative. E.g., for most of that time
you should be able to make substantially more than minimum wage by taking
internships, tutoring ($20/hr+ is typically a "low" rate), etc. Scholarships
and fellowships are typically available as well.

College is far too expensive in the USA, but you really have to be a huge
outlier to graduate from undergrad with $100K in debt. And it's still possible
in many parts of the country to graduate with "used car" worth of debt or even
no debt at all.

Part of our "college affordability" problem is real, but part of the problem
is a "buying luxury goods with a credit card" problem. Attending one of the
best universities in the world _and_ living in their dorms _and_ staying for
four full years _and_ not working full time over the summers + weekends during
the school year... that's the most expensive option possible. There are plenty
of much less expensive options for most college students in the US.

[1]
[https://admissions.illinois.edu/invest/tuition](https://admissions.illinois.edu/invest/tuition)

[2] [https://www.siue.edu/paying-for-college/tuition-and-
fees/und...](https://www.siue.edu/paying-for-college/tuition-and-
fees/undergraduate/)

[3] [https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2018/04/30/nacubo-
report...](https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2018/04/30/nacubo-report-finds-
tuition-discounting-again)

[4] (40 _8.25_ 12) + (16 _8.25_ (52-12-3)) = $8,844

~~~
Supermancho
> 1\. 30k/year is REALLY high for tuition. Most state flagships -- which are
> some of the best universities in the entire world -- aren't that expensive.

So what? Prestigious schools are notoriously egalitarian toward the students.
If you get accepted to Cal Tech, you are guaranteed to be subsidized. Nobody
"can't afford" to go to Cal Tech, but there are people who don't test well
enough.

> 2\. Most private universities do have sticker prices in that range, but a)
> why go non-elite private

Because most people aren't even average collegiate level intelligence.

> 3\. It's definitely possible to make >$10K each year while doing university
> full time.

Not sure what this is supposed to say, but surviving is hard out there.
Especially around any school (public or private). Most people in massive debt,
try to work it off.

This whole post seems a little holier than thou. Least of which is the
perspective that people could (or would) attend "best universities", which is
more than a little presumptuous. This debt hole is so common it appears in US
media from TV (eg Grey's Anatomy, Devs, etc) to the newest films.

~~~
throwawayjava
_> So what?_

So, people are _choosing_ to go to expensive universities that don't subsidize
their tuition. It's a choice, and there _are_ much cheaper options for most of
the country.

If you're paying $30K in tuition and planning on a "normal" career path, then
you're paying way too much.

 _> This whole post seems a little holier than thou_

Well, if sound financial advice is perceived as a personal attack, then we're
never going to solve this problem.

People whose parents can support them by allowing them to live at home for
free during college can graduate with almost no debt by attending a cheap
institution, working while going to school, and getting a head start in high
school or community college. And most people whose parents cannot allow them
to live at home will qualify for state and federal grants.

This country does have affordable college options for most people. The problem
is that most people who go to college choose the more expensive options (state
flagships and non-elite private universities) even though their local state
university branch campuses are capable of providing a perfectly adequate
education at a third of the price.

More importantly, the _only_ way we'll reduce the debt burden on
undergraduates is by providing more subsidy to state branch campuses. That
will only work, however, if people _choose to go to those state branch
campuses_. There's just no world where the taxpayer subsidizes a big chunk of
room&board&tuition at research institutions for the majority of college
students. For the top ~5% of students by merit, sure. But that model just
doesn't make any sense when there are far cheaper options.

 _> eg Grey's Anatomy_

Medical debt is an entirely separate issue. Intertwining it with the
undergraduate debt issue confuses things -- the solution to med school debt
will be different from the solution to undergrad debt.

------
elorant
The dot com burst was way worse than today. One reason is that back then the
industry was 10% of what it is today, or even less. The other reason is that
social distancing is creating the need to start selling online for a lot of
small brick and mortar shops. Most of web development companies I know are
overwhelmed by the demand in the last weeks. So we might be one of the few
industries that benefits from all this mess.

~~~
anticsapp
The dot com bust was awesome for me, although it was the first time I had ever
been fired from a job. I internalized blame for a while but then my
girlfriend, who had been laid off before me, was like fuck it let's have fun
in NYC and collect funemployment. We saw so much culture and had so much fun.
Then that buttlock Bin Laden had to ruin it all.

------
wheelerwj
Financial crisis is nothing new to the current working generation. We're
getting kind of good at it I think..

~~~
taurath
It’s been every 7-8 years for me for my entire life. I find it very difficult
to make large bets.

~~~
asdff
If you'd been betting along the market you'd be up big by now

------
fzeroracer
I mean I understand where he's coming from, but this is peak survivorship
bias. No, not everyone makes it. People can't get jobs, they can't pay rent
and people will suffer and some will die as a result. That's a fact of how
recessions go, and I think papering it over with 'everything will be OK' just
further normalizes the boom/bust cycle and all of the damage it causes to
working individuals.

~~~
frockington1
The people screaming survivor ship bias are the least likely to make it. Now
is the time to be doubling down your hours, focusing on whats important and
proving your worth. Believe in yourself and make it through to the next boom.
If you're lucky with your money you may even never have to worry about the
cycle again

------
anticsapp
I survived the Dot Com bubble pop.

I was at the DoubleClick Willy Wonka party where they rented out Centrofly,
had topless Chelsea male models made up like Oompa-Loompas. One high up
executive said to me "The sushi finally arrived, it's late. $80,000 for food
and it's late.".

I saw questionable startups give away $50,000 trips to Monte Carlo as some
sort of weird Silicon Alley user acquisition strategy.

When the tide goes out that's your time to strike. If you have downtime start
on your passion project. It might even become a product one day.

------
rchaud
Is that..it?

Where's the story? The paragraph about September 2001 is followed by April
2020, with nothing about what happened during the nearly 20 years in between?
I don't even know what kind of work the author does currently. Maybe he's well
known in tech circles, I don't know.

This is a blog post from a job board site; at least put in something
resembling a narrative. Yesterday we had a similarly promotional post about
how using Google Analytics was problematic, but it went into depth and
mentioned a competitor before finally promoting their own analytics solution.

This is the blog equivalent of a "motivational" post on Instagram.

~~~
ianai
Meanwhile the US has seen over 16 million new unemployment filings over the
last three weeks. The new filings are more than an order of magnitude greater
than any previous filing. The difference is impossible to miss when graphed
together with previous filings.

------
chvid
Why do you guys assume that this crisis will hit software development?

As far as I can see software development will be one of the fields least hit,
possibly even benifiting, by the fallout of the Corona-virus.

~~~
crispyporkbites
Everyone loses in a recession.

~~~
joejerryronnie
Not everyone, some people prosper enormously in a recession - or more
specifically, some people make bold investments during the worst part of a
recession when everyone else thinks the world is ending. Those investments
typically do very well when we exit the recession.

~~~
frockington1
Agreed, recessions are when money is made. If you look at '00 and '08/09,
investing in the down years is incredibly profitable

------
Animats
There's kind of a resume gap there between 2001 and 2020.

~~~
shippery
He was engineer, senior engineer, and then cto at active campaign..

------
baxter001
Disgusting prevarication in an attempt to sell the idea that it's perfectly
natural for the world to balance on a knife edge of investor confidence. Don't
swallow it.

------
pm90
The tech situation in y2k vs today is incredibly different which makes them
somewhat hard to compare. E-commerce was minuscule, telemedicine didn’t exist,
social media wasn’t a thing as we know it today, ridesharing didn’t exist,
cloud computing wasn’t a thing. It seems highly unlikely that we will regress
to a state where such services are not required.

------
todaysAI
I graduated at the height of the dot com era and haven't made it - you may
too.

------
andarleen
I like this kind of articles. I graduated during the 2008 crash and thrived as
a programmer. It is probably because i spent most of my youth on IRC learning
about all sorts of topics, mostly web related, while others waited for
knowledge to be handed down by professors. If you are passionate you are
likely to gain deep knowledge about your topic of interest. Deep knowledge
makes you highly desirable for most employers. Anyone sitting out there
anxious about what may be, now is the time to sink deep into your domain and
become better at it.

~~~
non-entity
> Deep knowledge makes you highly desirable for most employers. Anyone sitting
> out there anxious about what may be, now is the time to sink deep into your
> domain and become better at it.

Is this not _more_ risky during a recession, when you're niche may not be very
desirable in the economic climate?

~~~
andarleen
Thats a good question - but I dont think it would me more risky than being
anxious. Ideally one would chose a domain likely to be in demand.

------
kerhackernews
Things will get better but the complete lack of a social safety net here is
completely ridiculous.

The hoarding of capital by the super rich and business elites is disgusting.
There are better and more ethical ways to structure out economy.

~~~
ianai
Agreed. This should be grounds for declaring “trickle down economics”
disproved and downright bankrupt. How many times do we need to see stock
buybacks not help the problem while also not creating jobs? Or hospitals
firing people for talking about life threatening work conditions? Or hospitals
closing because treating covid patients isn’t profitable enough? Etc etc

------
brianmcc
My take on this - the guy's not boasting about accomplishments here, just
trying to reassure some young people who will be feeling pretty anxious about
their future. Why the hostility?

~~~
ianai
For one, the US just announced 6.61 million new unemployment filings last week
to being their total to over 16 million over the last three. Meanwhile the
stock market is on a rally this morning. I can’t emphasize enough how tone
deaf that looks to me. I imagine those unemployed would feel pretty invisible
and left out today in comparison.

~~~
brianmcc
But he's not saying "everything's currently super" he's saying "things are
truly crappy right now but they will get better".

I don't see what's tone deaf there. He's pitching a message of long-term-
reassurance at a time when many people might find that comforting -
specifically the younger folks who've never seen cycles of down/up/down-
again/up-again.

~~~
ianai
The fundamental lesson of the Great Depression was that there are no cycles.
Being down does not mean a later upswing with certainty. That we haven’t had a
GD since 1929 is in large part due to an ability to constantly grow markets
with cheap oil energy and new markets. But more importantly the US had a lot
of power and regulatory oversight to keep it from happening. All of that is no
longer the case, and we’re in danger of having another GD that could be even
bigger from some estimates. Normalization “arguments” are bad arguments that
disallow the discussion of deeper and more worrisome arguments. That’s why
this article shouldn’t be welcomed too warmly.

Stanford economist explanation: [https://www.fastcompany.com/90486801/top-
economist-the-1930s...](https://www.fastcompany.com/90486801/top-economist-
the-1930s-depression-was-great-this-one-might-be-greater)

~~~
throwawayjava
_> due to an ability to constantly grow markets with cheap oil energy and new
markets. But more importantly the US had a lot of power and regulatory
oversight to keep it from happening. All of that is no longer the case_

Growth: emerging markets have decades of gangbusters growth ahead of them.
More people will exit extreme poverty than ever before in the coming decades.
China will transition from middle income to rich in our lifetimes, introducing
hundreds of millions of new rich country consumers.

Federal power and responsiveness: The fed expanded its balance sheet in a
rather incredible and history-making way. The CARES act is one of the largest
subsidies ever.

Cheap oil energy: POTUS is currently begging SA and Russia to _increase_ the
price of oil. Meanwhile, alternative energy sources get cheaper every year.

A GD is possible, but not for those reasons.

------
kokey
I also lived through the dotcom boom and bust and even remember the recession
that impacted hardware vendors in the 90s. What we might see now is certainly
more like dotcom than 2008.

Dotcom was a time that a lot of investment chased a lot of speculative
business in technology which led to very high demand for anything looking even
remotely like computer skills and paying them well plus stock options. It had
to run out of steam and come tumbling down at some point, the end of Y2K was
when it ran out of new coal and the steam stopped not long after that.

Investors then had to beat each other to the door. It impacted everyone in the
industry but the first to go were the businesses not actually making money,
then those who had clients which consisted of a lot of businesses not making
money.

There were plenty of survivors, those who made money or those who could trim
their expenses and make money or those who could make money out of helping
others trim their expenses. People who worked for these kept their jobs. It
also became easier for them to hire people. Pay was depressed, but it emptied
out the industry from people who weren't actually that interested in or that
good at technology.

I joked that those people who got themselves Microsoft certifications just for
the dotcom salaries could go back to being real estate agents. That turned out
to be bad joke.

------
taurath
What’s the basis for this recession being dotcom level for tech and engineers
broadly?

~~~
rswail
It's likely to be dotcom level+ for all industries. At this point, casual and
low level employees have been laid off, businesses are conserving cash and
negotiating with their lenders.

This is not a financial recession, its a completely different beast. We are in
uncharted waters of a connected global economy being affected globally by the
pandemic.

The unemployment numbers are at least 10 million in the last 2 months for the
US. Similar proportional numbers are applicable in all economies.

This is likely to continue for the next 6 months and is likely to have
recurring volatility as areas relax or increase social distancing to protect
life and maintain the health system.

Assuming best case of a vaccine being available for general use this time next
year, it will take 3-6 months to roll out before things are back to "normal".
So that's not until Q3 2021 at _best_.

In the meantime, we can hopefully have palliative and curative treatments for
those infected and, with luck, the virus doesn't mutate sufficiently to cause
lack of immunity to those who have survived infection.

We're about to test out MMT vs current supply side vs (neo-)Kensyian
macroeconomics. World trade was already affected by the stupid and misguided
US instigated tariff barriers.

In addition, we have to deal with the existing US mal-administration and the
volatility of an election with all of the ridiculous nature of the way US
states conduct their election process.

~~~
ianai
6.61 million new unemployment filings last week bringing the total to over
16.6 million.

------
dschuetz
I didn't graduate at all, and still made it. You can too!

------
n0tme
It's funny how the author only concerned about YOUNG programmers worrying.

~~~
joelbluminator
We all worry now. But I think someone with 10-20 years experience will be
better off than someone with 5 months experience...it's better to fire all
juniors and leave out a few seniors from a software engineering perspective.
juniors are a long term investment and often cause more trouble than provide
value.

------
anonytrary
Of course you will. Some jobs are more prone to periodic layoffs than others.
STEM jobs are pretty safe compared to the people who work 9-5 in retail (the
people who are actually suffering right now).

------
adreamingsoul
College degree is not really a factor in making it or not.

------
Der_Einzige
What bust? The stock market is surging. The economy is doing great! There's no
economic downturn! Don't you know, stonks only go up?

------
mcamaj
The line I like - I decide to go to a job fair on campus, still feeling awful.
- Don't do that with COVID19, you might end up killing the person who hired
you, so when you show up for your first day, there might not be anyone to
welcome you there.

------
cutler
Except the scale of the current crisis is more comparable with 1930 than 2000.

------
droptablemain
Let's not minimize the difficulty of graduating or coming-of-age in the midst
of a recession based on the anecdotal evidence of a privileged few. That's
basically inspiration porn.

------
Afforess
The fundamentals of the economy are strong.

------
brosinante
You graduated in one of the most well paid, expanding industry of the last 40
years and made it. Excellent.

~~~
533474
Survivorship bias. Our system is broken, humanity needs a way to encourage
success without punishing failure. Failure shouln't be hunger and
homelessness...This will be another generation of hopeless dreamers lost in
the looming financial depression.

Why is our antidote hope against the adversity of going against all the odds?.
Congrats to those who made it but more recognition to those who failed and
managed to overcome misery

~~~
austincheney
> without punishing failure

Why not punish failure?

~~~
einpoklum
1\. Because most people fail a lot in a lot of things.

2\. Because failure often doesn't depend on you, and extremely often is at
least partially dependent on external factors and context.

3\. Because it's not that useful (psychologically) as opposed to other
engagement approahces.

4\. Because it can and will be misused to punish those who are disfavorable to
the punishing establishment.

and last but not least:

5\. Because the social systems which need to be in place in order to punish
failure, and the ethos necessary for the punishers and for legitimization of
the punishers' concrete acts, are themselves repressive to the general
populace and make life a worse experience for everyone.

------
Ididntdothis
Is there any content in this?

------
neenaks
We should qualify “made it“

------
TheDesolate0
This is a logical fallacy

------
uwagan
programmers are making it since the dawn of the field.

------
wllknj
This is just a personal anecdote. It is the very definition of survivorship
bias.

~~~
raleighm
I don't disagree with the logic. But a bit... wet blanket, no? I’m having a
good laugh imagining the motivational oomph that's lost when adding the caps
below.

"To all the young programmers worrying about the uncertain job market, I
promise things will get better FOR SOME OF YOU."

~~~
0x8BADF00D
That’s what life is. There are no happy endings or do overs. It is only the
raw truth of your circumstances. You can either look at that truth head on, or
avert your eyes.

------
wolfgke
Just one term: "survivorship bias"

[https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Survivorship_bias...](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Survivorship_bias&oldid=948047578)

~~~
uk_programmer
I've seen a lot of comments like this and it is kinda missing the point of
what the guy is trying to say.

He is saying "things look bad now, but things can get better".

------
adultSwim
Start coops. New graduates typically produce billable projects that generate
far more than they are paid.

------
rpiguy
If you can’t read a hopeful, personal story without screaming “Survivorship
Bias” and plunging headfirst into self-victimhood, good luck with the rest of
your life!

~~~
qntty
Seems cruel to say that to a young person who is struggling with a serious
issue. Lots of people graduate from college without coping mechanisms tuned to
the realities of adult life ... including you perhaps? Maybe it would be
better to just say that things are rarely as bad as they seem and the world
will continue to need young, enthusiastic programmers despite any economic
downturn.

~~~
rpiguy
I am the child of a “mixed marriage” from a poor family that faced a lot of
real adversity. The worst thing anyone could have done for me was to encourage
the idea that I was a victim of circumstances. You don’t develop coping
mechanisms without adversity. Adversity is a good thing so long as it’s not
perpetual.

~~~
qntty
You're absolutely right. But you don't need to add anything extra to the
adversity by being mean. People are perfectly capable of generating enough
suffering for themselves to grow as a person without help from someone else.

------
Qahlel
classic case of survivor bias

------
black_13
Anecdotal and not universal.

~~~
a_bonobo
I thought so too - if you're solidly upper middle class, then you'll usually
stay solid upper middle class. The author went to Loyola Uni, a private US
uni, which according to this site at least is 50% more expensive than the
national average non-profit uni [1], indicating a well-off background. Wealth
begets wealth in form of connections, which is what the author shortly refers
to:

>I do know someone who works at Loyola, whose husband works at a real estate
company. They need a database programmer.

So yeah, if you're 'outside' these groups/classes, chances are you may not
make it.

[1][https://www.collegecalc.org/colleges/illinois/loyola-
univers...](https://www.collegecalc.org/colleges/illinois/loyola-university-
chicago/)

~~~
saghm
> The author went to Loyola Uni, a private US uni, which according to this
> site at least is 50% more expensive than the national average non-profit uni
> [1], indicating a well-off background

Your conclusion isn't necessarily wrong, but many private universites offer
fairly good financial aid packages for students whose families wouldn't
otherwise be able to afford it. At the university I went to, there were
definitely a lot of upper middle class students, but plenty who weren't as
well; one of my good friends there actually didn't end up having to pay any
tuition due to his family having fairly limited income (his father was a part
time construction worker, and his mother couldn't work due to health issues).
That's not to say that there weren't other advantages for students who came
from more connected backgrounds, but attending a private university with a
high cost isn't necessarily limited to only those from higher-income families.

------
adjkant
Anyone thinking of starting a company to see if this idea is viable? Asking
for a friend

[https://www.fxnetworks.com/shows/devs](https://www.fxnetworks.com/shows/devs)

------
scarface74
This is much worse than the dotcom bust. Unless you were working for an
unprofitable company that depended on VC funding or a company that was
profitable only because it was dependent on startups (ie Yahoo) you were fine.
There were still plenty of jobs out there. In 2000, I had been working for
three years and was looking for my second job and there were plenty of
opportunities in corporate America.

