
The Wuhan Virus: How to Stay Safe - arikr
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/25/wuhan-coronavirus-safety-china/
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netsharc
I find a related article [https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/25/how-to-tell-
whats-reall...](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/25/how-to-tell-whats-really-
happening-with-the-wuhan-virus/) much more interesting, it talks about the
political (and social) context of this epedimic.

This bit, if correct, is the biggest "oh shit" part...

> Is the quarantine working?

> It’s too soon to tell, but quite probably not. The confirmed numbers may be
> just a fraction of the real total of infected victims, with many not yet
> diagnosed or even showing symptoms. But the biggest problem is that the long
> incubation period means hundreds of thousands of people left Wuhan long
> before the virus was seen as a major problem—especially as the Lunar New
> Year, when hundreds of millions of people return to their families across
> China, was coming up. A lot now depends on where they ended up. The constant
> expansion of the quarantine zone, which now covers a huge chunk of the
> central Chinese province of Hubei, suggests that local transmission may have
> been fierce and fast, outrunning the authorities. Modeling by foreign
> scientists is producing disturbing results — 250,000 or more infected inside
> Wuhan and large outbreaks elsewhere, with 60 percent or more of possible
> transmissions needing to be blocked to contain the outbreak.

