
Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? - nishantvyas
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-01-09/where-people-leaving-new-york-california-and-illinois-are-going
======
dfsegoat
Sonoma County, CA here. We've lost more people from our county than any other
in the state between 2017-2018 [1], and it is only continuing.

From the few of these people I have spoken with - anecdotally:

\- None left because of the fire risk, specifically. [though some obviously
did - 2]

\- Most left because of the cost of living: $600k avg home price.

\- Some also left because of political and human environment: We have homeless
encampments on our bike trails. We have fires caused by illegal cooking fires
at these encampments. Petty crime is increasing, and state laws are only
enabling this - people are sick of it.

1 - [https://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/9149705-181/sonoma-
county...](https://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/9149705-181/sonoma-county-
population-continues-to)

2 -
[https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona/2019/04/2...](https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona/2019/04/24/sonoma-
county-residents-leaving-california-move-arizona-heres-why/3563636002/)

~~~
smsm42
> Petty crime is increasing, and state laws are only enabling this - people
> are sick of it.

I wonder if people considered voting the politicians who made these laws out.
Judging from CA voting patterns, probably not. And then when it gets really
bad, they move to another state and likely vote for the same policies that
caused them to move in the first place.

~~~
nradov
California has largely become a single party state. I'm not trying to start an
argument between Democrats and Republicans here, but we can clearly see a
pattern everywhere in the world. Once single party rule is institutionalized
the politicians are no longer accountable to voter interests.

~~~
pmiller2
Not really. The farm valleys are very, very red, while the major cities are
very, very blue. I would say CA is a very politically polarized state.

~~~
kortilla
The valleys are mostly irrelevant due to their lower population.

~~~
pmiller2
And that’s why both chambers of the state legislature are ~20% Republican?

~~~
kortilla
Yes, a nicely irrelevant amount.

------
jedberg
Every person I know who's left California did it because of housing costs
(except for one, who did it to get away from "the damn liberal government that
wants to take my guns").

We have a major housing cost crisis in this state, as well as a big NIMBY
problem. There have been good solutions run up through the state house, that
either fail to pass or get so watered down they are no longer effective, in
large part because the most liberal parts of the state happen the also be the
wealthiest, so they vote against it.

It's one of the few areas in California where the GOP and the Dems agree.

They only want to help poor people if it doesn't affect their property value.

~~~
m_ke
All of the people I know who left NYC also left because of housing costs, even
though New York has been putting up new housing at an insane rate.

[https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/mortgages/migration-
study/](https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/mortgages/migration-study/)

~~~
formerchamp
It doesn't help when there are insane regulations like dedicating double digit
percentage of new units to be "affordable"/subsidized/section 8. Anyone with a
full time minimum wage job would not qualify for "affordable" housing, you
literally have to not work at all, it's such a scam.

~~~
zionic
The entire idea is preposterous. The solution to affordable housing is
oversupply of housing. Gov should incentivize new construction to reduce
prices and let the market fix it.

~~~
tmh79
Strong disagree, the solution to affordable housing includes a very large
amount of private/free market housing, but the free market won't really
address the needs of people below 30% of the median income. Additionally, good
affordable housing is one of the best anti poverty tools that we have. IMO the
long term solution is robust private market housing construction for the
middle class, and a robust public housing construction system for those who
truly need it.

~~~
barry-cotter
> the free market won't really address the needs of people below 30% of the
> median income.

It will if it’s not illegal to build. SROs are illegal. Boarding houses are
illegal. Houses below a certain minimum are are illegal.

[https://www.economist.com/special-report/2020/01/16/what-
is-...](https://www.economist.com/special-report/2020/01/16/what-is-the-
future-of-the-rich-worlds-housing-markets)

> From 2013 to 2017, Tokyo built many houses as the whole of England.

> House prices in Tokyo are now 9% lower than they were in 2000, while in
> London they are 144% higher, adjusted for inflation.

~~~
micmil
Anyone using Japan as an example of housing prices does not understand
Japanese housing.

Zoning in Japan is done at a national level, not local. Once an area is
designated for housing, housing goes there. Because of this there is a
constant flow of new housing, which drives the price of old houses down.

This is not possible anywhere zoning is done at a local level. Anytime one
person has the ability to stop another from building you immediately create
NIMBYdom and where the NIMBY exists, more housing does not because the NIMBY
cares about nothing but their own property value. But that also feeds into the
insane American idea of housing as an investment rather than a place to keep
birds from crapping on you.

Until the NIMBY is eliminated, and housing is no longer sold as an investment,
housing costs will not go down.

~~~
Redoubts
So why can’t we use Japan as an example? That seems like a laundry list of
good ideas.

------
enad
I grew up in Central California and then lived in the Bay Area from 2001 until
2010. Had kids, and a online job, so we next moved to the Sierra Nevada
foothills, where we lived for a decade.

We moved to a suburb of Houston, Texas about a year ago. Best decision ever.

In a nutshell:

Overall, quality of life has gone way up.

Taxes have gone down. Wages have gone up. Everything is cheaper, which means
we all get to do more fun stuff.

On the negative side of the equation: The avocados are smaller here.

~~~
highdesertmuse
Serious question:do you still vote Democrat?

~~~
weiming
Tongue-in-cheek comment that I've read somewhere is that folks flee Democrat-
run cities due to high taxes and mismanagement and move elsewhere, but then
continue voting Democrat to bring back the same policies they wanted to escape
from.

~~~
reaperducer
_folks flee Democrat-run cities due to high taxes and mismanagement and move
elsewhere, but then continue voting Democrat_

This does seem to be the case.

If you look at the voting statistics for cities where Californians are fleeing
-- Boise, Las Vegas, Reno, Salt Lake City, etc -- those cities are rapidly
turning blue.

But I don't know if they continue voting Democrat "to bring back" their old
laws and lifestyle so much as they're just used to voting a particular way and
continue to do so.

There don't seem to be a lot of people who put effort into making informed
voting choices on a candidate-by-candidate basis and just go for whatever
party they voted for last time.

~~~
milkytron
> But I don't know if they continue voting Democrat "to bring back" their old
> laws and lifestyle so much as they're just used to voting a particular way
> and continue to do so.

I think the way people vote tends to reflect their beliefs. And generally,
beliefs don't change often or drastically.

~~~
reaperducer
_I think the way people vote tends to reflect their beliefs. And generally,
beliefs don 't change often or drastically._

I see a lot of people who vote based on how they've always voted, rather than
based on their actual beliefs. It's part of the tribalism of it all.

Three data points:

In West Virginia there is an expression called Yellow Dog Democrat, which
means that the person would vote for a yellow dog before he voted for a
Republican.

In Chicago, for the better part of the last century, the policies and
positions a lot of the so-called Democratic Party politicians would be
considered to be very Republican in other states.

One set of my in-laws lives what would be considered by many to be a redneck
lifestyle, deep in the woods, surrounded by guns and beer and American flags,
and cobbled-together vehicles, and talking smack about Bernie Sanders being a
Communist and such. But guess what? When they go to vote, they vote Democrat
simply because they always have.

It's the reason in some elections in some places you have the option (or
sometimes the requirement) of pushing one button and voting for everyone on
that party's ticket, rather than being forced to choose each candidate on
their own merits.

------
sudosteph
Native North Carolinian checking in.

I'm from Charlotte and I can honestly say that I grew up with more friends who
had parents from New York than from NC. A lot of middle class people from
upstate NY settled in Charlotte due to the economic opportunities and weather.

I'd wager that this migration really started about 30 years ago, and we're
seeing the numbers increase even further due to network effects. For example,
we've got a sizeable community of former Buffalo residents who gather over
football games at restaurants that are run by other Buffalo natives.

For what it's worth, New Yorkers seem to be very culturally compatible with
North Carolinians, we get along just fine. I feel like I've seen a bit less
animosity for New Yorkers in NC than I saw for Californians in Seattle. There
are jokes (ie, the town of Cary in the NC Triangle is sometimes said to stand
for "Containment Area for Relocated Yankees"), but it never feels like genuine
resentment.

I may just be biased though because buffalo-style pizza in particular has
spoiled every other style of pizza for me. Please Buffalo peeps: keep coming
here and sharing your food culture with us.

~~~
reilly3000
Washingtonians (and moreso Idahoans) are particularly irate about Californians
moving in, and have been for as long as I can remember. There are a lot of
"salt of the earth" types who, regardless of political persuasion, see
Californians representing big houses, loose morals, and heavy traffic. The
Northwest ethos has been one of eclectic flavors of stoicism, serenity, and a
nordic work ethic. Californians, in their eyes, bring a more chaotic,
cutthroat energy.

I've lived in and love both states. Every native Californian I've met on their
home turf assumes that the entire state of Washington shares the same
microclimate as Seattle. Most Washintonians rarely wash their cars relative to
California's sparkly standards.

All of this is of course changing as more generations co-mingle, but the lore
remains.

~~~
toast0
As one of the Californians moving to the PNW, I've noticed the people who most
hate those darn Californians moved from California about 10-15 years ago. I've
been here about 18 months, and only run into one guy who has deep roots here
and was super grumpy about Californians. I'm sure it varies though depending
on exactly where you are.

~~~
dsfyu404ed
>I've noticed the people who most hate those darn Californians moved from
California about 10-15 years ago.

If you moved states to escape a problem and the problem followed you you'd be
pissed too.

~~~
toast0
Thanks for that perspective, that makes a lot of sense.

Their fault for telling us where they went though. I'm gonna start telling
people I moved to Texas and it's great. It's believable, and maybe people will
move there and leave me be ;)

------
chiph
If you want to explore this exodus yourself, one of the things you can do is
use the uhaul.com website. They have dynamic pricing based on availability and
demand. At the current time, renting a 26' truck to move one-way from Mountain
View CA to Dallas TX will cost you $4,230. But driving the opposite direction
will only cost you $846.

~~~
GhettoChild
At those prices one is better off just buying a trailer and keeping it.

~~~
kelnos
Hell, I wonder if you could buy a used 26' truck in Mountain View, do the
move, and sell it in Dallas for more than $4,230 less than you paid for it.

~~~
GhettoChild
Im sure you can.

------
whalesalad
My wife and I moved here to California (my home state) mid-2018 from Michigan
(her home state). We moved out here for a startup, but shortly after
relocating the founder ran out of money and could no longer pay me. This was a
huge shock because on the surface everything was fine and dandy. Got totally
bamboozled.

I still remember walking into our co-working spot to pick up some mail and was
told that I should leave the premisis becuase our bills were way past due and
I could not have access to our mail. I was like uhh wow holy shit, he isn't
paying you either. That was a surreal moment.

After the move and the shit show of the startup, our savings had basically
evaporated. I had to get to work ASAP. I am very fortunate to have a support
group of friends and family and was able to land a gig working on a Rails-
based ecommerce site for a furniture company.

Fast forward to now and I am still a freelance consultant with usually 3-4
clients or projects happening simultaneously. I have done pretty well for
myself, but the last year was one of the most stressful and chaotic years of
my life. I am seriously struggling with my mental health.

Throughout the entire time we've been able to save a little more money, but
all-in-all we are pissing away a tremendous amount of cash every month on our
rent and other expenses that are a little higher here in CA. Moving here to
Orange County was predicated on the killer salary from the new gig.

The current plan is to head back to Michigan. My wife's family is all there,
so as far as a state to flee to it makes the most sense. Our rent will cut in
half for what will be a far bigger property with a lot more breathing room. An
idea we are tossing around is buying land and building our own home from
scratch, which is something we could never even imagine doing here in
California.

I think that I have a tougher time appreciating all the wonderful things our
state has to offer. Having grown up here I just see all the traffic and
density and lack of breathing room and want to head for the hills. It makes
the higher living cost tougher to swallow. Plus, knowing we'll really never be
able to afford the kind of property and home that we know we can have over in
Michigan, it makes sense to get out of here without planting deep roots again.

~~~
starpilot
> An idea we are tossing around is buying land and building our own home from
> scratch, which is something we could never even imagine doing here in
> California

Doable in places like Joshua Tree or Quincy (NorCal).

~~~
asdff
There are empty lots for sale even in dense parts of LA.

------
shaneprrlt
Illinoisan here, have a lot of family and friends that have escaped. Escape is
literally how they talk about it too. Most of the complaints I hear is about
cost of living and property taxes. All the costs and taxes of a state like
California, without any of the beautiful weather (except for 3 months of the
year during summer). It's a big issue, and part of the reason, I believe, that
they just legalized recreational cannabis.

~~~
GhettoChild
The main difference I see between Illinois and CA/NY is that the cost of
housing is MUCH more reasonable so that the overall cost of living in the area
is MUCH more reasonable.

~~~
charlesu
It's not more reasonable when you consider the property taxes. A $350,000
house looks great until you factor in $10,000 annual property taxes.

~~~
GhettoChild
Even when taking property taxes into account it is. look up how much
comparable homes to that 350k home in illinois are in NY/CA and how much their
property taxes are in addition to that significantly higher home prices.

~~~
lotsofpulp
And you have significantly fewer opportunities to earn income.

------
vondur
Pretty easy to figure out in California. High cost of living, crime is out of
control, homeless taking over parts of the city. Our state government is
either unwilling or unable to address these issues. So sale your overpriced
property and move to a state with more sensible policies and taxes. Seems
pretty reasonable.

~~~
sharkmerry
Crime has ticked up slightly compared to the lows, but it has comparable rates
to the 60s right now. Before the explosion of crime in the 70s and 80s

~~~
vondur
Many people aren’t bothering to report crimes now. The police won’t do
anything about it. You can pretty much get away will minor property
crimes/theft now without any repercussions.

~~~
wwweston
If we're making assertions contrary to data and treading on unfalsifiable
positions, then I suppose the source is anecdotes, and I suppose mine are as
good as any:

I lived in Los Angeles in the early 90s for two years, and visited frequently
through the rest of the decade. Experienced petty crime on at least 3
occasions, had a few close calls with violent crime, saw the Rodney King riots
unfold, and heard some pretty crazy stories.

I've spent the last 8 years in LA... I've experienced zero instances of petty
crime. I know it's not _gone_ from some conversations I've had and everyone
here has their take on LA's various problems, but across demographics nearly
everyone I know agrees that this city is definitely a safer, more chill,
higher quality of life place than it was 20-30 years ago. Except in one
regard: housing is less affordable -- how much less depends on which boom/bust
cycle you're looking at and who you're looking at, but definitely less
affordable. So, not coincidentally, homelessness has become a much more
serious issue.

The weirdest thing is that this is apparently happening with a net outflow
from the state. Rents up over 60% with a stable/decreasing demand pool for
housing is an odd dynamic and likely means this is no ordinary supply problem.

I can't speak to the Bay Area or the rest of California, but that's what
things look like in LA.

~~~
asdff
Depends on where you live. Hancock park? Sure, no petty crime other than
burglaries. Pretty much anywhere else but the most bougie neighborhoods are
rife with petty crime.

When I flew for the holidays my bike was stolen out of a gated garage. LAPD
isn't going to jump on a grenade for my bike. Cars parked along the street are
regularly targeted for smash and grabs. The nearby encampment maintains a
cache of torn apart electric scooters and bike parts (maybe mine is in there
too). I've been on a bus that was 'ambushed' for a bike mounted in the rack
out front. Last week on the train two unstable men made eye contact and
started posturing and raising their voices, one pulled a shiv out of his
pocket and luckily the other one fled the car, but that could have been bad.
Life on the west side, but I still wouldn't trade it for anything.

~~~
wwweston
Huh. My recent time's been on the west side too, my neighborhoods have been
decidedly middle-of-the-road (def not most bougie), transport stops close,
homeless people camping nearby fairly common, sometimes in alcoves of my
current building. Still haven't drawn the property crime lottery. The biggest
thing for me, though, has been visiting places like Carson, Gardena, and
Inglewood realizing _they_ seem safer (though safer than the early 90s might
not be a really high bar).

Sorry about the bike, though, maybe that's a signal for me to be a little less
casual with stuff in the garage, and I definitely feel you about encounters
with people on public transport.

------
jshaqaw
Cost of living is real. Weather is real. Outside of a few highly nomadic
ultra-high net worth types the tax advantages of moving states is just too
trivial in absolute terms for most people to bother with. The idea that masses
of people are moving for lower taxes seems like a rhetorical invention of the
WSJ editorial page versus anything rooted in reality.

~~~
refurb
Disagree strongly on taxes. Moving from CA to WA, could save a family making
$100,000 nearly $1,000 per month.

~~~
munificent
ca.gov says state taxes for someone making $100k are $6,466.00. That's less
than half your claim.

~~~
jshaqaw
Not to mention states without income tax fund themselves somehow. There are
other taxes which partially offset the lack of state income tax.

------
dragonwriter
> New York, California and Illinois have been hemorrhaging residents.

Well, no. At least California (about which I see a lot of these stories) is
gaining residents. Yes, it has negative net interstate migration. But it has
both positive net natural population growth and positive net total migration,
because the positive net international migration more than offsets negative
net interstate migration.

~~~
alecco
So, white flight?

~~~
dragonwriter
> So, white flight?

Given the racial dynamics of wealth and the fact that the interstate
inmigration is wealthy and the interstate outmigration is less wealthy,
probably not “white flight” as that is usually conceived.

------
tempsy
I’m curious about inter-California migration as well.

I live in SF and wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of people in SF move to LA.

Personally I would be more than happy moving to San Diego. In my opinion the
best city on the west coast and relatively cheap for a coastal city.

------
Glyptodon
I find it interesting that Illinois and New York's leavers seem to have much
more income banding with respect to destinations than California's, which in
turn seems to at least partially be related to Californians _not_ going to
Florida.

My first instinct is to assume that well-off-ish retirees in Illinois and New
York retire to Florida, while in California they just stay in California.
(Though other possibilities exist: for example, California leavers could be in
two groups for most of the exit states, and so happen to average incomes out
more than for Illinois or New York.)

I also find it interesting that the income-destination pairs of leavers for
those two states seems like they might indicate potential easy presumptions
about general political and socioeconomic status compared to California.
Curious if there's actual data backing supporting these obvious presumptions.

------
iron0013
One thing I’ve noticed is that expatriates from blue states tend to bring
their politics with them when they move. Denver’s influx of out-of-staters was
a big part of why Colorado moved from purple to solid blue, and now the same
thing is happening in TX as folks flock to Austin and Houston, GA as the black
diaspora returns to Atlanta, and NC as the Research Triangle booms. Heck, even
Utah’s starting to look more purplish thanks to its tech industry (and the CA
imports that inevitably come along with it). It’s going to be exciting to see
what happens when Texas reaches its tipping point.

------
zone411
We made a map using domestic migration data:
[https://twitter.com/LechMazur/status/1202655115628466177](https://twitter.com/LechMazur/status/1202655115628466177)

~~~
mdavidn
It seems obvious that states with the largest populations would see the most
people leave. This graphic would be more interesting if the scale were per
1,000 capita.

~~~
bduerst
I tend to agree, but how would you weight it _between_ states?

Per 1000 capita in the source state or the destination state?

Also that would overweight the low pop density states, assuming there's a
baseline immigration rate, painting an entirely different picture with the
Dakotas/Wyoming/etc.

------
agensaequivocum
Having left Orange County California for Phoenix Arizona in early 2019, I
definitely plan on staying. We can easily afford a house, the community here
is unbelievably better (many young large families, an amazing Diocese), lower
income and property taxes, cheaper gas, constitutional carry. Sure it may get
a little hot in the summer but you can easily drive up to Flagstaff to escape
the heat, and, in the winter, go skiing for much cheaper than Big Bear.

~~~
dmode
Having lived in Arizona for 3 years, IMO, it is one of the worst places to
live in the US

~~~
agensaequivocum
Why?

------
ourmandave
The numbers are shown in tables with Net Migration (taxpayers and dependents)
and their Average Income of departing taxpayers.

So 75,386 (taxpayers and dependents) moved from IL to FL and their average
income was $135K.

That seems to imply that they all took their high paying jobs with them
somehow.

~~~
blululu
This may be slightly skewed by the effect of retirees (people earn the most
before they retire). Illinois has high taxes and terrible weather. A lot of
affluent people leave the state and retire to Florida. I'm not sure if the
article's analysis is really concerned with these nuances.

~~~
OrangeMango
> Illinois has high taxes and terrible weather

Illinois has a flat income tax; at $135k income you would only be beat by the
states that have no income tax (like Florida). Most of the states on that list
also have weather that is either terrible in the summer or terrible in the
winter, so I doubt that weather is really a factor in people moving.

~~~
sudosteph
I had a talk recently with someone who moved from Chicago to Atlanta. He said
it's the property taxes that really kill you there. Allegedly, by moving to GA
he decreased his property taxes enough to put an extra 100k towards the
mortgage for the same monthly payment. I don't know the hard numbers on that
myself, but it was enough to convince me that buying property in Chicago was
probably a bad idea.

~~~
RockIslandLine
It's not hard to get that data. The tax rates are public knowledge.

Cook county has just over a 2% per year property tax.

[https://www.cookcountyclerk.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/201...](https://www.cookcountyclerk.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/2018%20Tax%20Rate%20Report_1.pdf)

~~~
OldHand2018
That document shows how varied the property taxes are in Illinois. Moving from
"Chicago" to Atlanta for tax reasons is believable depending on whether the
person is moving from the City of Chicago or the Suburbs of Chicago.

> On average, the 2018 property tax bill for a home with a market value of
> $200,000 would be: * City of Chicago: $3272 * North and Northwest Suburbs
> (Cook County): $4741 * South and West Suburbs (Cook County): $6268 * Dupage
> County Suburbs: $4556

My sister used to live out in Kane County and her house, which she sold for
about 33% less than my downtown condo is worth, was almost double my property
taxes. Nearly 1.5 hours driving from downtown!

------
chadlavi
I'd like to cordially invite more folks to leave New York to make room (and
depressed housing prices) for the rest of us. Thanks in advance!

~~~
Ozumandias
After you, sir.

------
misiti3780
I live in NYC now but I dont know how long I will stay here. You cant really
buy an apartment for < 1MM and the taxes are out of control. NY State has to
be one of the worst states to live in right now. NYC even has a mansion tax on
any house purchased over 1MM dollars, and manhattan has a huge amount of empty
high end condos now because no one wants to buy them

------
newfangle
And this sucks for the rest of the country because these people have no sepf
awareness and will vote for the same dumb policies that screwed up their
original homes.

------
rb808
To me its fascinating the growth of state's pop. TX is sucking up people so
fast. NY has hardly changed in 70 years.

    
    
      State 1850 1900 1950  2020
      NY     3    7    17    19
      IL     1    4.8   8.7  13
      CA     .1   1.5  10.5  39
      TX     .2   3     8    29
      FL     .1   0.5   2.7  21

~~~
sharkmerry
According to your Numbers from 1950 to 2020, Texas only went up 3.625x.

CA went up 3.71x and Florida did 7.77x.

Definitely grew compared to New york, but hardly sucking up people so fast

~~~
rb808
You're right, just the last 10-30 years CA pop growth has stopped while TX has
continued at 20%/decade.

------
siculars
Having left NYC for Texas 5 years ago, I can confirm the grass is greener on
the other side.

~~~
blahneverdies
I'd assume that grass was brown and dead. (But no state taxes would be nice.)

~~~
azimuth11
The tech job market in Dallas and Houston is pretty hot.

~~~
LeoTinnitus
How's the water? One of the main things that scared me out of Texas living is
it's too hot and the water is algae tasting.

~~~
inetknght
I currently live in Houston.

I don't drink tap water directly. It goes through a brita water filter. After
that, it's generally fine.

As for too hot... I 100% agree. I'd move if I could keep my job. I want to
move north where it's cold. But I don't want to move where people are.

~~~
LeoTinnitus
I feel like North Carolina is the sweet spot right now. I live in Wisconsin so
it's hit or miss on summers and winters being too cold or too hot. NC has very
comparable summer weather and warmer winter weather, also it doesn't have
absurd cost of living like the west coast or NYC.

------
volkk
What's the story behind the more affluent going to Wyoming? Would love to
understand this

~~~
ore0s
Tax haven! [https://www.npr.org/2016/04/08/473477551/why-wyomings-
laws-m...](https://www.npr.org/2016/04/08/473477551/why-wyomings-laws-make-it-
an-easy-tax-haven)

~~~
driverdan
That's some weak reporting. It says it's easy to setup shell corps with a
registered agent. That's true for most states and is perfectly legal.

They should have discussed how WY makes it easier than most states to avoid
being directly connected in any documentation of the shell corp. This makes it
harder to track down the real owners in cases when they're being used
illegally or sought for litigation.

------
jamisteven
Californians arent all moving just due to housing costs, overall cost of
living there is pretty nuts and unless you work in big tech, your salary is
not that great. State plus federal income tax alone was a deal breaker for me
when I was there.

~~~
CamperBob2
_State plus federal income tax alone was a deal breaker for me when I was
there._

Especially now that state income tax is no longer Federally deductible. I've
found it very surprising that people on both the pro-tax and anti-tax sides
don't make a bigger stink about that.

~~~
mdavidn
That and property tax on high-value housing is basically no longer deductible
either.

I think Republicans backed this plan hoping it would create pressure to
decrease taxes in blue states. Instead, the double taxation has only incensed
taxpayers like me.

------
tardo99
I live in California.

An interesting thing we learned is that if we move out of the country for,
say, 3 years, unless we set up our lives so we have no intention of remaining
California residents, the state will continue to pursue us for income taxes
even while overseas. Federal law has a different system which makes more sense
-- a tax exemption while overseas.

Given that we expect to spend a substantial amount of time overseas in the
future for personal reasons, I'm thinking we may need to move to a zero tax
state in the US first, just to get out from under the sway of California.

I'm curious if anyone else on HN has experience with this.

~~~
gamblor956
This is a misunderstanding of how CA tax law works.

If you move to say, Nevada, before moving to China or wherever, but you always
intended to return to CA afterwards, then for state tax purposes you never
stopped being a CA resident. So, for example, if you keep a storage locker
with your furniture in Cupertino for when you return, you clearly never
intended to permanently leave and so you're still a CA resident for tax
purposes.

If you don't plan on coming back to CA after moving to China or wherever, you
stop being a CA resident _immediately_ and only owe state taxes for the part
of the year you still lived in CA. And it's easy to show that you are no
longer a CA resident, for example, by selling all of your CA-based property.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
If you own a house in California and visit it often, even if you are living in
China, they might still claim you are on the hook for California taxes. I
guess you really have to move out and then rent the house out or sell it to be
off the hook.

The biggest issue with CA and moving abroad temporarily is that CA doesn't
have a foreign earned income exclusion or foreign tax credit. So you really
don't want to be a CA resident if you need to move out of the USA.

Since I moved to Switzerland (and then China, ironically enough) from CA, it
was something I had to look into...I wasn't sure if they would come back and
say I was a CA resident even though I really had no ties there. In particular,
if I wanted to vote, I could have in CA, but that would have been a bad
mistake. On the other hand, I wasn't eligible to vote in any other state, so I
spent 11 years not voting. When I finally left China, it was for a job in
CA...which also gave me some pause as I didn't intend to return to CA in the
first place.

~~~
tardo99
Thanks. It's too bad people decided to downvote me. Probably because of my
username, but who knows. In any event, do you have thoughts on solutions?

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Claim that your permanent residence to Washington state (or some other income-
tax free state) if you go abroad. Actually, make it so by moving to WA first,
and then going abroad. Also, not all states are like CA, some do support
foreign tax credits at least.

------
peignoir
I did move to Puerto Rico, there is a small and growing tech ecosystem there
and growing. A lot of tax incentive and flights to Miami and nyc are cheap.
Rents are cheap and this is a good deal for remote workers

------
twodave
If I’m honest, as a young professional from Florida I always envied those able
to uproot and move to the west coast. My whole family (both mine and my
wife’s) is here on the east coast, and I spent a lot of years somewhat
resentful of the missed opportunities.

Today, at the age of 35, my position has completely reversed. If anything,
with the advent of the remote workplace, I’d rather be in a low cost area such
as the one I live in, and the “opportunities” I’m missing out on these days
just don’t seem so attractive anymore.

------
imroot
Florida's upsides: No Sales Tax. If you're not looking for waterfront, housing
is super affordable. Amazing place if you're single.

Florida's Downsides: Homeless are more aggressive than in SF. Florida Man.
Frequently 10% sales tax in most places due to lack of income tax. Higher
property taxes if you're in a really progressive area. You're swapping out
earthquakes for hurricanes. A lot of "Keeping up with the Jones'" mentality
here. Not a great place for tech.

~~~
nmfisher
I'm still trying to understand how it all works in the USA, so please bear
with me. What do you mean by "No Sales Tax", then go on to say "Frequently 10%
sales tax"?

~~~
souprock
Clearly that is wrong. There is no income tax.

The sales tax is 6% to the state, and counties can increase it for their own
purposes, up to a maximum of 8%. The average is 6.65%. At certain times in
summer, school supplies and hurricane supplies are 0%. Grocery items are 0%.

~~~
imroot
Yup -- my apologies -- No Income tax.

------
tidology
Besides the usual issues with SF, Bay Area .. really California: homeless,
cost of living, fires (health), earthquake one of the most concerning aspect
for me are taxes! You pay tons of state taxes to get pretty much nothing in
return.

I and my wife have 2 years of run away. Wait for my kid to finish the pre-
school cycle, after which we are out of here.

We have already begun to look into alternatives and evaluating pro/cons and
yes Texas comes as one of the top choices along with Colorado.

~~~
tropo
So... are you going to vote like a Californian, ruining those states, and then
look for a new state? People sort of end up with the government they deserve,
even if they don't like the result.

California would be great if it were filled with a mix of people from Texas,
Wyoming, Oklahoma, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Florida, Iowa, Idaho, and
Kentucky. The laws would be very different. There would be much more freedom,
including lower taxes.

------
rmason
Surprised to see Michigan still on the list. Ten years ago it should have been
number one. But things have gotten much better, dramatically better in the
last two years.

Reports I've seen is that the state should see an increase in population in
the 2020 census. Last time that happened would have been perhaps in the early
nineties.

------
yboris
Would be great if their charts were showing % rather than absolute numbers (or
at least would show % in addition to absolute numbers).

It shouldn't be too surprising: California and New York are in top 5 by
population size.

ps - their use of "hemorrhaging" to describe movement of people feels
inappropriate.

~~~
freehunter
“Hemorrhaging” is a pretty common way to describe an exodus of people or
money. It’s a common metaphor that’s also used in “stop the bleeding” or the
similar “stem the tide”.

Business is full of otherwise wildly inappropriate phrases, like “drink the
kool-aid” in reference to the mass suicide of nearly 1000 people in the
Jonestown cult. I have no idea how that’s considered an appropriate phrase for
any situation but I hear it constantly in office settings.

~~~
sgustard
The issue with the word is that implies something that if left unchecked will
cause disaster. So 100k people per year have left, and yet "California’s
population still grew by about 2 million over this period". I really don't see
the problem.

~~~
goles
But in areas that do have negative growth, more people leave the tax base gets
lower, the government has less funding to address issues that cause people to
leave, move people leave, etc.

No?

------
slg
Ignoring the age of people in this data seems like a mistake. Considering the
age of boomers and the states this article says people are moving to, I would
venture a guess that recent retirees make up decent percentage of the people
moving. Two 30 year olds moving from California to Nevada so they can afford
to raise a family is saying something fundamentally different and in my
opinion more important than two 65 year olds moving from New York to retire in
Florida.

------
someonehere
California my whole life. I live in SF. Considering moving to Washington. I
can live on the west side of Puget Sound and take an express ferry across the
Sound and get to downtown Seattle for work. What a condo goes for in SF you
can get a beach front house with some land. I once saw a property on one of
the islands with a dozen acres for less than a million. Farm house on it and
it’s still commutable to downtown Seattle via the ferry.

------
52-6F-62
Come to Canada >:] We could use some denser populations to provide a larger
tax base and to promote inter-city transit infrastructure.

~~~
downerending
Sadly, Canada won't let you in unless you're young or rich.

~~~
52-6F-62
Honestly was being half tongue in cheek, but your comment made me look it up
because I never have.

It sounds like we have a program similar to the USA’s TN Visa program:

[https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-
citizenship/se...](https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-
citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/eligibility.html)

FWIW, it can be expensive here, but Amazon and others are hiring like stink.

------
Keverw
Ohio is losing people too, called brain drain. Was reading that a senate
report said Ohio's best and brightest are leaving, especially the more
educated. I could see how moving to Texas or Florida would be appealing,
warmer so no winter blues, friendlier to businesses, less taxes and simpler
tax structures and some cities have more tech than others too such as Austin.
I know Michigan is in a similar situation too with losing people.

I know after the 2020 census Ohio is predicted to lose at least 1 house seat
and lose some of the federal funds. Looks like Ohio is attracting more
immigrants from other countries, than people from other states.

Really think it's a shame tech is so centralized in a handful of cities, but I
do see things like warm weather and walkability attracting people. I'd love to
live somewhere where I wouldn't be far from my office, places to eat and shop
without needing a car. I figured maybe around where the domain in Austin would
be a cool place to live maybe. Seems like it's cheap to live in Ohio but not
much to do other than drinking, playing video games, bowling or doing drugs
(Dayton was ranked top city for heroin overdoses) and not that many jobs in
tech, and then even huge loss in manufacturing too.

I know people say Austin is the next Silicon Valley, but I feel like the cost
of living for housing keeps going up, so sounds like going to have similar
problems as in California. I'm surprised tech companies don't invest big in
the midwest, Google could probably buy an entire city if they wanted to but
not sure if they'd attract a lot of workers. But it's interesting to watch
migration patterns, I guess tech is the new gold rush. Seems like sometimes
you have to vote with your feet.

I was thinking Utah would be a nice place to live since the mountains are
pretty, and was surprised to learn they have only a flat 5% tax rate, and no
city income taxes either as I thought every state also had cities taxing
people. While Ohio you have state, city, school district(some are done based
on income as a %, while other districts use property taxes), and then if you
own a business or self employed making enough (maybe you're a lawyer who
decided to work independently grossing enough to qualify for paying it)
there's a business activity tax. So I think a simpler tax structure would be
nice. I kinda feel there should just be one tax only to simplify things, and
let the cities or states argue over who gets what. Then some tax software
won't even help with city taxes, I think Michigan that's the case since cities
haven't standardized on things, I know there was a proposal in Ohio for the
state to collect city taxes on the city behalf and redistribute them to the
cities while charging the cities a service fee but the cities didn't like that
idea. I know some cities go as high as 2.5% percent, I think it's a little
insane some cities with less population and square miles of Utah needs to
collect half of what the entire state of Utah collects, makes me feel like
there's a lot of waste or people are paid too highly working for the city.

~~~
lotsofpulp
> > I'm surprised tech companies don't invest big in the midwest,

You already answered your own question:

> I could see how moving to Texas or Florida would be appealing, warmer so no
> winter blues, friendlier to businesses, less taxes and simpler tax
> structures and some cities have more tech than others too such as Austin.

> I do see things like warm weather and walkability attracting people.

People look for cheap when they can’t afford something. People in tech right
now can afford to buy what they want, they don’t need cheap.

------
glofish
Considering that Florida is slowly but surely going underwater it is weird to
see it as the most popular destination to move to.

~~~
snickerbockers
That's a very long-term outlook. Unless you own beachfront property, it won't
be happening in your lifetime.

~~~
atombender
Elsewhere in the world, it would only affect beachfront property as the coasts
recede. But South Florida is literally built _on_ water, a swiss cheese of
porous carbonate rocks such as limestone. As seawater pushes through the
porous rock, a process called salt-water intrusion, it dissolves the limestone
— causing rampant sinkholes all over the state that already are a big problem
today — and raises the water table. The Netherlands model will never work for
South Florida.

------
neonate
[http://archive.md/vo0cm](http://archive.md/vo0cm)

------
GhettoChild
Look at cheap states with no state income Tax. The states without income tax
are Texas, Washington, Tennessee, South Dakota, Alaska, Nevada, and Florida.
Find the one which most fits what you are looking for in a place to live and
give it a whirl.

------
tqi
I wonder if there has been an increase in cases of families splitting up, with
one (or both) parents living cheaply in high cost / high income areas and
sending money back to families in lower cost / lower income areas?

------
zelly
You can do software anywhere you can get a network connection, but if VCs
aren't there, then you don't get a job. VCs have to be the first movers on
this. So I have a suggestion for any of you reading.

A major reason for SV being where it is, is the climate. A number of studies
have been done on this. The best place for high-quality entrepreneurship and
general civilization-building is a Mediterranean climate. The Bay is not the
only place with this property. Most of coastal California has the same
climate. So why don't some VCs move to other places? How about Monterey?
Orange County?

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediterranean_climate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediterranean_climate)

------
Jemm
Judging by the influx of tech companies , Toronto seems to be a popular
destination for Americans.

------
formerchamp
SF and NYC in a nutshell: High taxes to fund entitlement programs like
"affordable housing" and the homeless industrious complex, high regulations
that only allow mega corps to succeed, landlord unfriendly laws so no chances
taken on good borderline tenants, and no firearms for law abiding citizens so
criminals are emboldened.

~~~
untog
On the flip side: high taxes means access to things like public
transportation, meaning that you don't need to own and maintain a car. And
crime rates in NYC, at least, are at absolute historic lows. The firearms part
of your statement really makes no sense at all.

Some other pluses: a huge concentration of culture, entertainment, dining.
Regional transportation hubs to travel to other cities is relatively quick.

~~~
newfangle
This is hilarious, yeah in SF the 55 percent taxes i pay really do provide me
great public transportation

~~~
d1zzy
lol what? 55% taxes?

~~~
newfangle
I pay 55 percent taxes total if that wasnt clear.

------
unixhero
As an European, what's the difficulty to get a citizenship for the US in 2020?

~~~
tropo
The situation is really only difficult for a handful of countries with very
high migration. You aren't in China, India, or similar. It ought to be pretty
easy for you.

Note that this is based on birth country, not your current country.

------
iancmceachern
I think it comes down to one's priorities in life. I would rather rent
somewhere that I want to live that has the activities and culture I enjoy than
own a big house where I dont want to live that doesn't have those things.

------
dkwod023903
Bay Area native here. The cost of living here has always been high, there have
always been a lot of homeless people, and crime used to be worse.

The tech industry has metastasized, overthrown the culture, and drained the
soul out of the place. The ethos and pathos of the tech industry have
undergone a transformation from creation to extraction. We shot for the moon
and got surveillance capitalism and the "gig economy" instead.

Now everybody here is "the right type of people". You can be whoever you want,
so long as it's sustainable and organic.

~~~
GhettoChild
so many catchphrases and clichés in this post.

~~~
dkwod023903
You hit it on the nose GhettoChild

------
make3
Come to Montreal

------
kull
Go Austin!

------
kbradero
Detroit. Best place ever.

~~~
OrgNet
free homes? (if you don't count the tear-down costs)

------
whatsmyusername
Pittsburgh is great.

~~~
RobRivera
There was a recent article about a googler who suffered from Industrial air
pollution and claims Pittsburgh is not a place to move to.

~~~
whatsmyusername
And about 10 articles debunking it. Pittsburgh's air quality is roughly on par
with the bay area. Granted, it ain't great but compared to where else Google
is based? _shrug_

ex: [https://weather.com/news/news/2019-04-24-most-air-
polluted-c...](https://weather.com/news/news/2019-04-24-most-air-polluted-
cities-us-2019-climate-change)

Balance this against a growing tech scene (Fintech, robotics, self driving,
all sorts of interesting stuff. No VC money but there are orgs like PNC's Numo
and CMU investing), a great food scene (Walters makes bang'n brisket but Spork
is the best place to eat in the city), pretty good cultural events (the ballet
is probably my favorite), easy access to NY/DC/etc, and an excellent cost of
living (my 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath was 160k and has appreciated 25k in 2 years).

Clarion coke works to the southeast is absolutely an air pollution quagmire
but it has little to no impact on the city (except potentially the extreme
east side). Biggest downside is we're stuck in Pennsylvania.

To the Googler's point, Google's office is located in Bakery Square. This is
directly next to Penn Avenue which is a major thoroughfare. If you spent most
of your time next to bumper to bumper traffic it'd be likely you'd have a poor
opinion of Pittsburgh's air quality even though it's entirely unrepresentative
of the city as a whole.

------
205guy
There is something about California that really brings out the whining and
hypocrisy in conservatives. They want to move there for the big bucks in tech,
but they don't want to be a minority party/culture. CA has lots of problems,
but when I hear "housing is too expensive, lots of homelessness and petty
crime, AND it's so liberal that they just can't fix anything," I know the last
one is the key. They complain about the NIMBYs who keep real-estate prices
high (as if that were the only thing), complain that no one is building denser
housing, then leave and move to sprawling suburbia with it's HOAs and de-facto
segregated zoning. Go try to build a 4-plex in your new neighborhood, then get
back to us.

Cue all the complaints about the entrenched residents in their Prop 13 homes
or rent-controlled units, building permits and red tape nightmares. Yes, there
is a problem. You not making it and having to move away (after moving there 2
or 3 years ago) is not the problem. Look at it this way, the system is working
for 80-90% of the long-term residents, and they're aware of the hardships for
the disadvantaged among them. Why should they go out of their way to
accomodate conservatives who want to undermine their tax-and-spend heaven?

As for the Democrats who leave CA and vote Democrat elsewhere, why not? They
didn't get in early enough on this wealth train (OK, jokes about CAHSR will be
tolerated), so they're going somewhere else, and trying to get it started
there. CA is defined by excess of liberal values, elswhere by lack, so they're
just trying to bring some moderation. They won't be very successful, and I
will tell them not to go whining about the conservative values in their new
home, so there.

California just is. It's the world's 4th largest economy by itself. For good
or ill, it's home to so many internet companies (and other industries) that
have made so much money in the internet revolution that it has skewed its
cost-of-living and real-estate markets off the charts. It has made many of its
residents fabulously weathly, both in relative and absolute terms, and they
want to stay and enjoy it mostly the way it is. In SF/SV, it has redefined
middle-class at around 300K combined income, and that money (at least what's
not dedicated to housing) drives a lot of other sectors (public transit,
restaurants, and other quality-of-life businesses). Yeah, I know, all those
have issues and/or are overpriced, no need to comment to say that. It also
leans very liberal in the coastal cities, meaning tolerance, compassion,
social justice, sanctuary, etc. It seems like they still have a democracy, and
since they're still the majority, they get to keep experimenting. It's not
going anywhere, and it's not going to change much, and certainly not because
of the whining. Deal with it.

------
atomi
I wouldn't leave California for a million dollars. To quote a famous
Californian, "I'd rather be dead in California than alive in Arizona."

~~~
filoleg
Good for you, I totally respect that. Which, unfortunately, isn't something I
am able to say about a lot of Californian expats.

~~~
dang
Please don't take HN threads further into regional flamewar (or any flamewar).

[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html)

~~~
atomi
You got a tough job buddy.

