
The Wuhan Virus - ashw1n
https://www.genomic-quirks.org/post/the-wuhan-virus
======
mech1234
From the scattered information I have read, the infection has a very long
dormant period (2 weeks), during which it may be contagious, and a high R_0
value of at least about 2.0. The R_0 value states how many people will catch
the virus from an existing infected person.

These two factors together are scary. I am extremely interested in seeing
better data though.

~~~
bjoyx
Higher than 2.0

"The mean estimate of R0 for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96)
to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10), and significantly larger than 1. Our findings
indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks."

[https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1)

~~~
binaryorganic
Preprint and not peer reviewed. The WHO had it at 1.4-2.5 a few days ago.

[https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/23-01-2020-statement-
on...](https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/23-01-2020-statement-on-the-
meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-\(2005\)-emergency-committee-
regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-\(2019-ncov\))

~~~
bjoyx
Earlier measurements are likely to be biased downward:

[https://www.academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_...](https://www.academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Pathogens_-
_Coronavirus_A_Note)

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newsbinator
> All the viral genome sequences from affected individuals are very very close
> to each other. Several are identical and none has more than 5 differences
> (99.983% similarity). This strongly suggests that transmission into humans
> came from a single pointed source and happened very recently, between Sep-
> Dec 2019.

> Given what we are learning from viral genome sequencing above, and given all
> the emergency measures being put in place in China in particular and around
> the world in general, there is every reason to believe that the epidemic
> will be controlled shortly.

~~~
fieryscribe
I'm not sure what the latter is based on. Up to 5m people may have left Wuhan
before the city was locked down.

What's more is that Hong Kong has still not restricted travel, while offering
free medical care to anyone. As a HKer, that makes me especially nervous.

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jiofih
I thought it was understood as courtesy to not name the epidemic after the
city, which will forever become a blemish on local tourism?

~~~
clarry
I don't think about Spanish flu when I think about travel to Spain.

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ptha
You shouldn't, it didn't originate in Spain.

 _Even today, experts aren’t certain where the outbreak originated. Some say
China, some say the American Midwest, and others suggest France. But one
thing’s for certain—it wasn’t Spain.

“Nobody calls it [the Spanish flu],” says Albert Bosch, president of the
Spanish Society for Virology. “It just happened to be the place where it was
reported, and that’s it.” Arnold says the Spaniards themselves had different
names for the virus—sometimes “the French flu” for their historic rival,
sometimes “Naples Soldier” after a popular musical—but it was the name in the
Times that would stick._

[1] [https://www.sciencefriday.com/articles/the-origin-of-the-
spa...](https://www.sciencefriday.com/articles/the-origin-of-the-spanish-flu/)

~~~
jfarlow
And it was only reported there because every other country was at war and
censored internal news:

[https://www.history.com/news/why-was-it-called-the-
spanish-f...](https://www.history.com/news/why-was-it-called-the-spanish-flu)

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ojosilva
I find genome sequences fascinating, life's binary code has only 4 opcodes, a,
c, g and t. I wonder if any computer VM will ever be able to actually fully
run it. Still, the massively parallel capacity needed to run it "realtime" is
not quite here just yet.

~~~
graycat
Yes, amazing stuff:

(1) If we have a rock, can we expect slowly by small modifications to make it
into a hammer?

(2) If we have a horse, can we expect slowly by small modifications to make it
into a Model T?

(3) ... a mechanical adding machine into an iPhone?

(4) ... a log cabin into the Empire State Building?

(5) ... a pocket knife into a computer numerically controlled milling machine?

(6) ... any software from the earliest operating system or simplest
application into to all the software we have now?

Especially for software, we believe that lots of little modifications will
lead to _technical debt_ , need for _refactoring_ , to throwing out and
starting over with a _clean sheet of paper_ , to "plan to throw one away
because you will anyway". In software, often it seems that there is no
reasonable way to get from here to there and, instead, have to start over.

Well, with DNA, on this planet apparently the first version of life able to
reproduce at all significantly was based on DNA, and all versions of life
since then, including us, have also been based on DNA. Moreover we got here by
small modifications of the DNA.

So, maybe the point is, DNA is not really life but just a design for a life,
not a species but just a design for one. And we do believe that easily enough
we could go to an architect and building engineer with standard tools for
generating blue prints and doing the engineering for buildings, and they could
use the same tools for a log cabin or a floating city.

Okay, but for life there hasn't been any design means, hasn't been any
alternatives, other than just DNA.

Moreover, the simplest design tools for life have also been sufficient for the
life to understand the design tools, life, the earth, and the universe.

Moreover, we are about the first, one of the first _graduating classes_ of
life that understands DNA, life, ..., and the universe: It's been about 14
billion years since the big bang, and our solar system was made about 5
billion years ago from the results of exploding stars that grew and exploded
in the first 9 billion years which is not much longer than it took for the
first stars to form and explode. So, apparently to get life able to understand
the universe had to take about 14 billion years from the big bang and we are
among the first instances of such life.

YMMV, but looks amazing to me!

Hmm ....

~~~
tigershark
> Well, with DNA, on this planet apparently the first version of life able to
> reproduce at all significantly was based on DNA, and all versions of life
> since then, including us, have also been based on DNA. Moreover we got here
> by small modifications of the DNA.

Are you sure? I remember that life started as RNA not DNA.

~~~
marcosdumay
They behave alike in a lot of ways, so I imagine they were never really
separate.

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jotjotzzz
But what happens if the virus mutates? Wasn't this the case with the Spanish
flu? The first wave, then the mutation from which causes the second wave.
Could that potentially occur?

~~~
bart_spoon
Yes. Although it's important to note that mutation doesn't necessarily imply
increased virulence. A blog post from This Week in Virology from a few days
ago noted that the SARS epidemic may have actually been blunted due to a
mutation it undertook.

~~~
Zod666
I was wondering about. Thinking about what exactly brought Sars under control.

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dreamcompiler
Article suggests the intermediary animal is unknown, but the early consensus
seems to be that it's snakes.

[https://gizmodo.com/deadly-wuhan-virus-in-china-may-have-
com...](https://gizmodo.com/deadly-wuhan-virus-in-china-may-have-come-from-
snakes-1841161392)

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acd
Maybe vaccine can be made similar as those of Mers,SARS since the virus is
closely related to those genetically.

~~~
onychomys
There isn't a vaccine for either SARS or MERS, in part because they don't
happen very often. In the case of SARS, that one outbreak was it so far, while
in MERS we've seen a grand total of about 1500 people infected worldwide,
although the disease is still circulating.

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mmhsieh
this is probably the one thing going viral that silicon valley is not happy
about

