
Coronavirus 3 Day Prediction - vackosar
https://www.coronaviruschart.com/
======
dredmorbius
In gawk, as of 28 Jan, daily for 2 weeks, weekly for 100 days:

    
    
        #!/usr/bin/gawk -f
        
        BEGIN {
            # Data as of 2020-1-28
            doublerate = 1.71
            dailyrate = 2/doublerate
            cases = 6063
            deaths = 132
        
            now = mktime( "2020 01 28 00 00 00" )
        
            maxdays = 14
            interval = 1
        
            printf( "| %3s | %-12s | %12s | %14s |\n", "day", "date", "deaths", "cases" )
            printf( "|%-5s|%14s|%14s|%16s|\n", ":---", "------------:", "------------:", "-------------:" )
            for(day=1; day<=maxdays; day+=interval ) {
         date = strftime( "%b %d, %Y", now + day * 86400 )
         printf( "| %3i | %-12s | %'12i | %'14i |\n", day, date, deaths * (dailyrate^day), cases * (dailyrate^day) )
            }
        
            printf( "\n\n" )
        
            maxdays = 100
            interval = 7
        
            printf( "| %3s | %-12s | %12s | %14s |\n", "day", "date", "deaths", "cases" )
            printf( "|%-5s|%14s|%14s|%16s|\n", ":---", "------------:", "------------:", "-------------:" )
            for(day=1; day<=maxdays; day+=interval ) {
         date = strftime( "%b %d, %Y", now + day * 86400 )
         printf( "| %3i | %-12s | %'12i | %'14i |\n", day, date, deaths * (dailyrate^day), cases * (dailyrate^day) )
            }
        
            printf( "\n" )
        
        }

~~~
dredmorbius
Output. Keep in mind that _low-side deviation is anticipated_ and is a measure
of containment success.

    
    
        | day | date         |       deaths |          cases |
        |:--- | ------------:| ------------:|  -------------:|
        |   1 | Jan 29, 2020 |          154 |          7,091 |
        |   2 | Jan 30, 2020 |          180 |          8,293 |
        |   3 | Jan 31, 2020 |          211 |          9,700 |
        |   4 | Feb 01, 2020 |          247 |         11,345 |
        |   5 | Feb 02, 2020 |          288 |         13,269 |
        |   6 | Feb 03, 2020 |          337 |         15,519 |
        |   7 | Feb 04, 2020 |          395 |         18,152 |
        |   8 | Feb 05, 2020 |          462 |         21,230 |
        |   9 | Feb 06, 2020 |          540 |         24,830 |
        |  10 | Feb 07, 2020 |          632 |         29,041 |
        |  11 | Feb 08, 2020 |          739 |         33,967 |
        |  12 | Feb 09, 2020 |          864 |         39,727 |
        |  13 | Feb 10, 2020 |        1,011 |         46,465 |
        |  14 | Feb 11, 2020 |        1,183 |         54,345 |
        
        
        | day | date         |       deaths |          cases |
        |:--- | ------------:| ------------:|  -------------:|
        |   1 | Jan 29, 2020 |          154 |          7,091 |
        |   8 | Feb 05, 2020 |          462 |         21,230 |
        |  15 | Feb 12, 2020 |        1,383 |         63,561 |
        |  22 | Feb 19, 2020 |        4,143 |        190,297 |
        |  29 | Feb 26, 2020 |       12,403 |        569,731 |
        |  36 | Mar 04, 2020 |       37,135 |      1,705,718 |
        |  43 | Mar 11, 2020 |      111,181 |      5,106,750 |
        |  50 | Mar 18, 2020 |      332,865 |     15,289,096 |
        |  57 | Mar 25, 2020 |      996,564 |     45,774,017 |
        |  64 | Apr 01, 2020 |    2,983,613 |    137,042,800 |
        |  71 | Apr 08, 2020 |    8,932,639 |    410,292,352 |
        |  78 | Apr 15, 2020 |   26,743,422 |  1,228,374,011 |
        |  85 | Apr 22, 2020 |   80,067,114 |  3,677,628,161 |
        |  92 | Apr 29, 2020 |  239,712,883 | 11,010,448,584 |
        |  99 | May 06, 2020 |  717,676,247 | 32,964,174,931 |

~~~
jerf
Extend the model out just a bit farther and you discover the true threat of
coronavirus that we need to be worried about is when the infected and dead are
sufficiently numerous that we need to start worrying about their Schwarzchild
radius. Truly... dark times.

~~~
perl4ever
I like to put upper bounds on the worst case, so I checked out the Wikipedia
page on the 1918 flu, and it appears that this virus is only about 1/5th as
lethal, and lacking a world war, shouldn't spread as easily.

~~~
djmips
No world war however we now have airlines and modern travel.

------
lbj
"The prediction is based on a very simple assumption that the counts will
follow an exponential curve"

This reminds me of news reports from the 90s, where the big fear was that
Chinese companies would totally take over Europe. The big Chinese breakthrough
would happen 'next week', 'next year', 'next some arbitrary buffer that puts
us just outside of the data'.

Corona might go exponential, but with the amount of effort being put into
containment, I doubt it.

~~~
semi-extrinsic
On the contrary, isn't the expected behaviour for most types of growth that it
will be exponential in the initial phase, then transition to an S-shaped
curve?

Whether it be expansion into a new market or spread of a virus, in the early
days there is little resistance. Then when (competitors|health services) start
noticing and working against it, the spread slows and plateaus. How quickly
that happens and what level of spread the plateau is at depends on the speed
and efficiency of the countermeasures.

~~~
jhart99
At some point everyone an infected person comes into contact with is either
already infected or has previously been infected( and potentially immune). So
I would think you would be exactly correct, at some point the number of
infected people will peak and begin to fall. The number of dead and the number
of recovered will form an sigmoid curve.

------
radiorental
I appreciate the text below the graph was probably written by a non native
English speaker but can someone please decipher this..

Question 2

However, as a reminder, CDC always recommends everyday preventive actions to
help prevent the spread of respiratory viruses, including: Wash your {{ ...
}}.

(a) hands, give every bite a chance to keep your nose open

Question 3 Use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer that contains {{ ... }}.

(a) antifungal immunoprecipients, not salt; run an inflatable swimming pool

Question 4 Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and {{ ... }}.

(b) neck, especially when wearing your shoes

Question 7 Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw {{ ... }}.

(a) your hands up, arms, hands, face

Question 8 Clean and disinfect frequently touched {{ ... }}.

(c) tissues with dental iron

~~~
jerf
If I am reading the tea leaves correctly, based on the fact that
quizrecall.com was registered December 30th, 2019, and my ( _adjusts monocle,
clears throat ostentatiously_ ) extensive experience reading
/r/SubSimulatorGPT2, it appears to be a new website that tries to
automatically create quizzes from given material by blanking out portions of
sentences and using the (probably stock, probably the smaller model) GPT-2
text generator to fill in the "wrong" answers.

Neat idea. Not sure it's quite useful yet, but neat idea.

~~~
treve
Given the topic, might be better to choose something written by a human to
avoid giving incorrect advice.

------
dv_dt
Despite the text implying it's all an exponential curve forecast model, the
wiggles seem to point to actual data being plotted too.

I wish they differentiated data points from forecast points in the actual
chart. Text says 1/29 update, but I think only the 1/28 point seems to match
news reports.

~~~
repiret
And cited sources for their data. And had error bars on the prediction. And
gave you access to historical predictions.

~~~
mlyle
Historical case counts don't really have error bars... and it's difficult to
come up with meaningful error bars based on goodness of fit of a function.

~~~
repiret
But the graph is also looking three days into the future, presumably based on
fitting some model to the historical data. The output of any worthwhile model
is a probability distribution over possible future infection and death counts.
As a consumer of that graph, I should be able to see not just the value just a
model thinks is most likely, but at least some indication of how tight a bound
the model is placing on those values.

------
sgt101
Why do this when there are strong models from epidemiology and spreading
processes? Like SEIRS?

~~~
skmurphy
Can you provide any links to sites that take current data and use better
models to forecast? This site strikes me as a useful first step. But clearly
there are better approaches, I have only seen predictions in papers, not in an
equivalent site.

~~~
sgt101
There are a few around. Try this one
[https://www.buyupside.com/calculators/sir.php](https://www.buyupside.com/calculators/sir.php)

~~~
skmurphy
I think the current forecast is a reasonable first approximation for a three
day forecast. The model you propose is more accurate but requires many more
parameters, each with their own error bands. I think you are looking at a very
complex rapidly evolving situation characterized by an eventual transition
between exponential growth and S-curve transition that is very hard to
predict. The chart now indicates the forecast points and assumes 3 days of
exponential growth, which until the virus is contained is a reasonable three
day forecast.

I have no affiliation with the author of the chart but appreciate the thought
and effort that went into it.

------
sxp
This would be more informative if it had historical predictions. E.g,
[https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/evlmqr/oc_...](https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/evlmqr/oc_update_on_timelapse_of_wuhan_coronavirus/)

------
jreyes333
can someone please run this again, it's been so accurate!

------
Zenst
What TZ is being used for day cut-off? Details like that are important.

More so if you want a comparison with actualities like :-
[https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)
(which is EST as you can see - bottom right).

------
dethon
WHO provides status report here:
[https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-
coronavirus-2...](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-
coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/)

Seems to provide some useful data

------
adrianmonk
This page layout is messed up. Too wide for my window, and somehow it defeats
horizontal scrollbar. Things are cut off along both the left and right sides,
and there's no way (short of making the window bigger) to see them.

(xwininfo says my Chrome window is 1114 pixels wide.)

~~~
vackosar
Thanks a lot for the bug report. I on mine Firefox and Chromium is seems fine.
I will try to fix it. If you have any tips let me know.

------
zachguo
This is crap. Data is outdated and off, the assumption of an exponential curve
is way too simplistic.

------
ryanseys
Relevant xkcd: [https://xkcd.com/605/](https://xkcd.com/605/)

------
generalpass
I think the only question at this point is will Coronavirus kill all of us or
just most of us.

~~~
CJefferson
At worst, based on current stats it will kill around the weakest 1% of us.
That's still a massive problem, and awful tragedy, but nowhere near killing
"most" of us.

~~~
generalpass
Is there any demographic data on that 1%?

