

Ask HN: Opinions on what success rate is enough for validation of a startup? - asotelo

Hi everyone, on the Eve of Christmas and here I am posting a question on HN. There is an cool tool out there that proposes to experiment on startup ideas. The tools is http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.javelin.com&#x2F;experiment-board.html.<p>The opinions I would like to gather from you is what percentage of interviewed clients would you consider a success worth proceeding further?<p>Thanks and Merry Christmas to everyone !!
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MichaelCrawford
In general, 50% of American businesses fail during the first five years. (I
was told that quite a long time ago; I don't know the current figure.)

Go have a look at the websites of some venture firms. At least them list all
of the portfolio companies they've ever had, even if they've exited. Now look
into whether those companies failed, were acquired, whether the IPO worked out
well and so on.

That's going to be a lot of work but would be valuable information for
everyone to know. If you wrote up on article about it on your site, you'd get
lots of readers, inbound links, maybe press coverage.

~~~
striking
It would also likely dispel (to a degree) the survivorship bias [1] that is
pervasive in the Valley today.

[1]:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias)

~~~
MichaelCrawford
The Anthropic Principle is conceptually similar to Survivorship Bias.

Loosely speaking, the reason we humans find the Universe so hospital to us, if
that if the Universe were not hospitable to humans, we wouldn't be here to
wonder why.

In reality, the vast majority of planets are completely unsuitable for life,
not just intelligent life - too hot, too cold, too small, and so not enough
gravity for an atmosphere &c.

------
striking
I consider every startup idea to have value. Although it is easy to get an
approximation of how well an idea will work, one will never know unless he or
she tries. The most oft cited example of this is AirBnB, [1] but one example
most people haven't heard of is Washboard [2]; they charged $27 for $20 in
quarters to help people pay at the laundromat. Did they get customers? ..yes,
actually. I think the final count was 11 or so.

Just goes to show you, any idea can succeed... to a degree, at least.

Happy holidays to you, too.

[1]: at first, people said "you want to rent your house out to a stranger?
What!?" but then apparently many realized that it was relatively safe to do
so.

[2]: [http://valleywag.gawker.com/real-startup-that-mails-you-
quar...](http://valleywag.gawker.com/real-startup-that-mails-you-quarters-for-
laundry-isnt-s-1593540845)

~~~
asotelo
Striking... you are right about the AirBnB [1]. Even Henry Ford said if he
would have asked people what they wanted they would have said faster horses.
Steve Jobs also was known to do as he pleased because users don't know what
they want.

Not familiar with washboard. I will check it out.

Another interesting case is the founder of SnapInspect. He asked realtors if
they would pay in advance for this solution. A few did... and now it seems to
be doing very well.

