
Can Elon Musk and Tesla Reinvent the Way Cars Are Made? - _fizz_buzz_
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/30/business/tesla-factory-musk.html
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niftich
Orthodox automakers have reasons behind their methods that aren't legacy
bullshit: they're the product of years of practical experience in production
line design: a finely-honed way of cranking out lots of an identical product
at a cost that should be recoverable from a normal rate of sales. There are
still duds every year, when a particular make's particular model is clearly
the worst-received out of a large field of dozens, but by and large this
process works very well.

Musk has thrown out the book entirely, and has taken the opposite step at
almost every stage. This is a mistake, because some of those decisions have
real consequences that will hurt later.

For example, most carmakers make lots of an identical product, from the same
batch of parts, for a particular run. If a part (or a manufacturing process)
turns out to be defective, they know that all of that run could be
compromised, so they recall a batch of VINs. While a portion of these cars is
probably fine, recalling a broader set allows some vehicles to be checked and
serviced before problems happen or people get injured. If Tesla tweaks the
process very often, the cars instead become practically hand-made, to where
there are barely some that are alike. This makes it much harder to proactively
identify risks about production siblings.

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aibrahem
As someone who spent almost half his career as a software engineer in
automotive companies and the other half in a couple of large tech companies, I
could completely understand why there is a high chance of this happening.

Most automotive companies are run like factories, including the hardware,
software, and R&D departments, in a factory, the focus is more on the process
than on achieving the “correct” results, which although might work great in a
factory could be extremely hampering for innovation in development and
technology teams.

If you ever wonder why infotainment systems in most cars are stuck in the 90’s
UI it’s because it would take weeks to change a single line of code where it
would need to go through multiple code reviews, get approved by people who’ve
been using the same development tools for the last 20 years and consider IBM
RTC as cutting edge, document every single thought that went through the
developers head and mindlessly test the crap out of every possible
combination.

The way tech companies operate is extremely data-driven, if it works and you
have the data to back it up that is usually the end of the discussion.
However, in process-oriented companies conformance to the established
processes is what is usually valued, a statement that is usually echoed is
that it’s more important to follow the process and produce incorrect results
than not follow it and produce correct results.

For the last decades, automotive OEM’s have been bringing manufacturing
processes to software development, my hope is that any tech company (and Tesla
being one of them) would be able to bring agile software development practices
to manufacturing.

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SirensOfTitan
This is offtopic insofar as it’s meta but: the HN attitude of telling me why
everything won’t work is really depressing. If I took many of the top comments
on here seriously: pretty much every new technology or breakthrough is
nonsense. Surely doing things that are new and challenging mean some
hyperbole, but it doesn’t make you sound smarter when you’re constantly
telling me why things don’t work.

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Gargoyle
As far as I can tell, that's what the people running the site want it to be.
It's been a problem for years and years now and no action has been taken to
stop it.

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JackCh
I prefer critical analysis to unthinking yes-men. To the extent that HN
administration agrees with me, I appreciate them.

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melling
Elon’s just turned 47. He slept at the factory last night. Hope he gets 700
Model 3’s off the line today.

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compcoffee
> _Hope he gets 700 Model 3’s off the line today._

Personally, I don't see the significance of putting all-hands-on-deck to reach
an arbitrary production number that they themselves set. Quality is already a
question, and I can't see that improving under such circumstances.

~~~
sokoloff
At least part of the point is building/repairing credibility with the capital
markets. Elon Musk has made numerous black-and-white promises to the capital
markets and has come up (well) short on most of them. Having previously
promised that they would become cash-flow positive and not need to raise
further capital, it would be unfortunate if they came up short on that promise
AND short on significant production number promises leading up to the next
capital or debt raise.

I suspect another significant motivation is more local leadership: set the
tone of aggressive milestones for the company and then lead the company to
achieve a goal that few thought was possible.

Disclaimer: I generally admire Elon Musk and his achievements, most
specifically Space-X, though I am short $TSLA right now as I don't see any way
they're going to navigate positively through what's ahead of them in the next
8-12 months, and don't think that Tesla as a car company is worth more than GM
or 1.4x Ford.

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CaptainZapp
"At least part of the point is building/repairing credibility with the capital
markets"

In order to do that it would probably help to not cut off investors asking
legitimate questions with snide comments to then devote significant parts of
that call to answer questions by a fawning Youtube "personality" fan during an
_investor conference call_.

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curtis
There needs to be a corollary to Betteridge's law, to the effect of "It's a
stupid question."

Tesla is not trying to reinvent the way cars are made. Car manufacturing lines
already rely heavily on automation. What's notable about Tesla is that they
have been trying to automate production to a higher degree than is typical for
the industry.

Don't get me wrong here, this is a big deal, and it's caused Tesla some
problems that they could have avoided. But "more automation" is not
revolutionary and it's not reinvention.

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jpm_sd
Betteridge's law would suggest that the answer is "no". In fact, they have
already failed to reinvent it, and are reverting to standard practices in some
sense.

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pwaai
This. too many Tesla cults shilling online. The fact of matter is experienced
and established brands are coming out with superior quality EV.

In fact Tesla is ill equipped to handle the flood of EV competition. Once Elon
is forced to leave Tesla, it will be the end of the brand.

There's just no way I would put down 70k for a Tesla when there are so many
superior options coming down in the next 2 years.

I'd even reckon Tesla won't be around within 5 years.

The automotive market is filled with energetic visionaries who ultimately
crushed by established automotive giants. Tesla is no exception in fact it
will be far more crushing in that they basically paved a way forward for EV
and other brands will fully reap the profit, not Tesla.

Such is the cold reality of a saturated race to zero market. Tesla is not even
a luxury brand like BMW or Lexus. It's steaming pile of shit that kills
drivers on autopilot.

~~~
themagician
This may be true, but this is also what people have been saying for years. All
the other auto manufactures do is release cool concept cars at car shows and
then go back to producing the same watered down garbage.

Right now there isn’t an EV that even comes close to a Tesla. And even the
traditional luxury brands like BMW and Mercedes are losing to Tesla on the
tech side which is increasingly the part of luxury that people care about.

Everyone else keeps talking about these imaginary cars that other manufactures
are going to make that are going to put Tesla out of business. It’s been FIVE
YEARS of that talk… and nothing.

~~~
usaphp
I don’t think bmw or Audi are losing to Tesla in technology. They both have
pretty good autopilot now and each has its own cool tech features, like the
360 camera in bmw or the digital dashboard in Audi.

I am sure bmw or Audi can release a fully electric sedan to compete with
Tesla, but most people I know who own bmw or Audi - they don’t like the idea
of a fully electric car. They want a sense of security in having a gas engine.
I guess the market is just too small for bmw and Audi to even try and go
compete with Tesla at the moment. Maybe later...

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themagician
I haven’t had an Audi, but I have had many BMWs and a VW (which, UI wise, is
the same as an Audi). It’s not really close to a Tesla. The digital cockpit is
OKAY, but the car still has 50 buttons and it’s buggy. The infotainment system
resets itself all the time. Audio glitches with car play. It’s half assed and
never updated like everything else with the auto industry these days.

~~~
JackCh
I'll never buy a car that doesn't allow me to turn on the air conditioning
without taking my eyes off the road. In other words, physical buttons and
dials that are always in the same place. Something I can feel with my fingers
and always rely on being there.

Touchscreen controls sure are flashy, but as far as I'm concerned when
employed in a multi-ton piece of machinery traveling at 60+mph they're
borderline homicidal. I know I'm not the only one who thinks this way.

I'm open to voice controls. I don't like speaking to machines, but having
machines speak to me is something I appreciate _(for instance I always have my
GPS talk to me, I never look at the screen)_ and I could see myself coming
around on talking to machines. But a big old glorified ipad stuck in the dash?
No way.

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chc
Aren't there physical controls for simple things like A/C on the steering
wheel, and the tablet is just for more involved workflows? That was the
impression I got.

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JackCh
If the controls for everything that I need are physical, then I don't need the
digital controls.

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saudioger
no

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dirkgently
They don't reinvent as much as keep the hype machine running well, and they
are doing excellent job at that.

This world runs on hype. Tesla's and Apples are good at it.

After that, whatever they do is 'reinvention'.

