
The Psychology of Human Misjudgement – Charlie Munger Full Speech - peter_d_sherman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqzcCfUglws
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peter_d_sherman
>"SupremeNooby 2 months ago (edited)

Timestamp for 24 standard causes of human misjudgement:

1) 3:00 - Bias from reinforcement and incentive

2) 5:08 - Man with a hammer syndrome

3) 6:09 - Psychological denial (reality is too painful to bear, so you just
distort it until it’s bearable)

4) 6:57 - Agency cost (too trusting of advisors who don't know more than you)

5) 10:18 - Bias from consistency and commitment tendency / Self-confirmation
tendency (hard to change your mind once emotionally committed to an idea)

5.5) 11:28 - (Related to previous point) - Bias from cognitive dissonance
(caused by echo chambers)

6) 12:31 - Bias from pavlovian association / past correlation for decision
making

7) 19:49 - Bias from reciprocation tendency (ask for a lot and then back off
to a lower offer)

8) 24:04 - Bias from over-influence of social proof

9) 26:48 - Bias from contrast (grass greener on the other side)

10) 30:13 - Over-influenced by authority

11) 31:50 - Bias from deprival super reactions syndrome (sunk cost fallacy)

12) 35:00 - Bias caused by envy

13) 35:51 - Bias from chemical dependency (addictions)

14) 36:15 - Bias from mis-gambling compulsion (I made the choices so the odds
must be better) [numbering gets confusing at this point] But these are my
personal breakpoints

15) 38:36 - Bias from liking distortion (over-influence/mislead by someone we
like - including ourselves)

15.5) 38:48 - Bias from disliking distortion (under-influence by someone we
dislike - especially if they are right and we are wrong)

16) 42:19 - (he says 17 but he means 16) Bias from the non mathematical nature
of the human brain (too stupid to understand maths and too lazy to learn)

17) 44:00 - Bias from fear of scarcity

18) 45:50 - Don't trust someone who says "I've never done it before and I'll
never do it again"

19) 46:34 - Bias from sympathy

20) 49:48 - Bias from over-influence and extra evidence

21) 51:00 - Bias caused by mental confusion caused by information not arrayed
in the mind to create sound generalizations (you memorized new information,
but you haven't learned it or know how to make it useful. Test new information
by answering "why")

22) 50:49 - Starts at 53:16 - Stressed induced mental changes (small/large,
temporary/permanent)

23) 54:20 - Common mental illnesses and declines temporary and permanent and
quitting the tendency to lose ability through disuse (Charlie skipped this
explanation: says he doesn't have time for it)

24) 54:28 - Say-something syndrome (difficult to explain new concepts to
others who lack "first principles")

Questions:

1) 55:45 - What happens when these standard tendencies combine?

2) 1:01:01 - Isn't this list topological (meaning is there overlap and some
item is a combination of other items)

3) 1:01:15 - Are these (biological) tendencies generally good or bad?

4) 1:07:31 - What special knowledge problems lie buried in the thought system
indicated by the list

5) 1:09:00 - How should the best parts of psychology and economics interrelate
in an enlightened economists minds

Extra

11:56 - It's very important to not put your brain in chains too young by what
you shout out (by joining echo chambers)

1:05:54 - Confirmation bias"

