

Half of China's millionaires want to leave country - amitagrawal
http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/01/report-half-of-chinas-rich-want-to-leave/

======
angkec
This may add more insight: I'm Chinese (mainlander) myself and I'm not rich
(student). All my friends are not rich either. Yet almost everyone wants to
leave the country.

This is probably due to high real estate prices (around 1M RMB in large cities
like Beijing and Shanghai for a decent apartment that can get you a girl to
marry you, yet you don't really "own" the property even if you buy it.
Technically the state still owns your apartment and you were just paying for
"usage fee" because that's how communism/socialism works. In comparison, newly
college graduates earns around 6k RMB/mo); broken health care system (probably
worse than the U.S, since most of the Chinese family are relying on their only
child to provide health care money when they grow older); harsh job market
(simply too many people for not so many jobs, so the wage becomes low); and
plus, a dim future for all of the lower income families or family without
connections.

Yes you can argue that there's so many opportunities in China, but somehow we
voted with our feet: everyone who has a means to leave left. Most of the
famous Chinese actors are now foreign citizens or at least with a green card
alike. For average families, they send their kids overseas for school. That's
why you see so many Chinese students overseas, doing boring PhD degrees if
they are poor or enroll as an undergrad if their family could afford. For
their families, getting their kids to an overseas school is like taking the
first step to a much more promising future.

~~~
hachiya
The one child policy of China is pure evil. It's a wonder the forced abortions
and these effects don't feature more prominently in this discussion.

~~~
tobtoh
And what do you propose is the alternative? Very easy to take a moral high
ground when you don't have to worry about the repercussions of over population
and strained resources. As the poster said themselves - too many people in
China.

~~~
hachiya
I don't need to propose an alternative in order to state that the imposed one
child policy is evil, along with its forced abortions and forced
sterilizations.

Second, you can't prove overpopulation is as serious as the government claims,
nor can you prove their "solution" fixes it.

Third, if it is as serious as is claimed, it will affect the world
(anthropogenic environmental impact, immigration, etc...), so it's everyone's
worry.

------
espeed
This summer Forbes reported...

"China Daily reported Friday that unnatural deaths have taken the lives of 72
mainland billionaires over the past eight years. (Do the math.) Which means
that if you’re one of China’s 115 current billionaires, as listed on the 2011
Forbes Billionaires List, you should be more than a little nervous."
([http://www.forbes.com/sites/raykwong/2011/07/25/friends-
dont...](http://www.forbes.com/sites/raykwong/2011/07/25/friends-dont-let-
friends-become-chinese-billionaires/)).

I wonder how much fear is playing into this desire for exodus.

~~~
folkster
This news is far from being accurate.
<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2806250>

~~~
espeed
Regardless if its billionaires in yuan or dollars, if there is a sentiment in
China that the wealthy are being killed, it could fuel the desire to leave.

~~~
wisty
I'd expect a number of extremely rich Chinese oligarchs have been shot for
treason, as some forms of corruption are punishable by the death penalty.

There's a lot of _really_ nasty shit that happens in China. Babies dying from
additives to their milk formula, organs being stolen, farmers being driven off
communes to build illegal factories, outright theft of government funds and
property ... none of it is really sanctioned.

When the officials who set themselves up as feudal lords get busted, they can
go down _hard_. Even if their superiors were previously turning a blind eye,
if it hits Weibo (the Chinese Twitter) then things can get ugly.

~~~
chaostheory
> outright theft of government funds and property

Yeah most of that ends up in North America. imo They tend to buy housing in
cash for their children mostly in either Vancouver or the Bay Area.

~~~
wisty
A lot of it stays in China. Officials may have a large unofficial income
source (or two), which they spend on wine, women, and Karaoke (none of which
officially existed, just like the money they used to pay for it, so there's no
explaining to do); or food (you'll never meet a Chinese who won't think a good
$500 meal isn't worth it). Or they channel some to their spouse.

A few big fish will grab a staggeringly huge amount, then run. We are talking
_huge_ amounts here, though, not a Chinese millionaire looking for a house for
their kids. There's a total of $120 billion missing, taken by an estimated
16,000 officials. Only the poorer ones will be buying what you would describe
as a "house".

I'd think most of the Chinese buying houses for their kids are essentially
legit businessmen. They probably use cash because Chinese just hate debt. They
also see it as an investment, because houses are some of the only things
Chinese trust - they see shares as giving a total stranger your money to play
with, in the hopes that he gives you more back (I mean, have you seen what US
CEOs get paid?).

~~~
talentdeficit
That's only 7.5 million per corrupt official, which is about the cost of the
houses they buy in Shaughnessy, North Vancouver and Point Grey.

~~~
anigbrowl
Assume a Pareto distribution; it's usually a good bet.

------
Volpe
There is too much bias from reporters these days to work out actual trend from
manufactured trends with regards to china.

Silly to say "half of china's millionaires want to leave" without saying how
that percentage is different from "all chinese"...

China long ago loosened restrictions on emigration, to allow Chinese to be
educated overseas and then (hopefully) return to China, so that it could
benefit. I think this increase of emigration could be a natural progression of
that policy (as Chinese now have a lot more ties in other countries).

The 'unaffordable housing' issue, sounds similar to Australia (Median house
price is 8+X median yearly/salary), so I doubt it is a reason for leaving.

People who are saying it's "too be free", are clearly just anti-P.R.C, again,
by-in-large chinese are happy/apathetic about the govt in china. Those that
care about politics, join the party and have just as many rights (to vote and
affect change as americans have).

Very difficult to work out 'truth' here...

------
MengYuanLong
Note that the claimed reason is better education opportunities for their
children. There is definitely a perception here in China that connections and
schooling are critical for a life of success and wealth.

That said, I have my doubts they would be able to directly ask, "Do you want
to emigrate?". So perhaps that is why they tacked on the education bit for
plausible deniability (i.e. I love my country but my child should go to
Harvard).

------
tomkarlo
Once you're rich enough, you become concerned with protecting that wealth and
your own well-being. You want transparency from your government, rule of law
(in a transparent, predictable manner) and political stability. Those are not
strong points in China these days.

~~~
Selvik
I think this is true. Additionally, as other commenters have mentioned, daily
life in china is a bit of a health risk due to the crazy traffic, air
pollution, poor food safety etc.

~~~
tomkarlo
I forgot this - I have two friends who lived in Beijing for years but moved to
LA when they had kids, in large part because the air pollution was so bad they
said they could feel it in their throats when they woke up each morning if it
was going to be a bad day. Nobody likes to feel like their they breathe is
killing them each day.

There was a comment (I think on Top Gear, so take it with a grain) that if you
drive a new Porsche through Beijing, the air coming out the tailpipe is
cleaner then the air going in the front.

------
oblat
Remember the way America plans to compete with China is to wait for China to
fail. So there are a lot of Americans straining their eyes for a glimmer of
salvation. That is the context for pretty much every American story on China
you see.

The reality is that Chinese rich are hedging like all the rich do. Putting 20%
of your wealth in a safe investment outside your home country is not unusual.
And they are gearing up to send their child overseas to the best schools they
can find - just like all the other tiger economies did.

------
quant18
The original report is here (in Chinese):
[http://pic.bankofchina.com/bocappd/report/201111/P0201111015...](http://pic.bankofchina.com/bocappd/report/201111/P020111101574895209302.pdf)

Later on I'll have a read and translate any interesting parts of it. Right now
it's 4 AM here, I'm coming off a long and not-very-fun debugging session, and
I'm going to sleep.

There was a very similar report published about half a year ago by China
Merchants Bank. HN discussion: <http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2660178>

I blogged about that report and translated some portions of it at the time,
see there for my thoughts on these things. my analysis in short: not many
people taking concrete action, not many people leaving permanently.
[http://notlearningcantonese.posterous.com/rich-emigrants-
as-...](http://notlearningcantonese.posterous.com/rich-emigrants-as-shirkers-
and-traitors-a-loo)

------
fredliu
The trend is definitely true, but it's been there since day one when there
began to have "rich Chinese". This CNN post made it sounds like, suddenly the
rich Chinese worry about them being killed or end up in jail, because they
oppose the chinese government? This is laughable.

“We see too many worried entrepreneurs nowadays who are afraid that they would
end up in prison for offending Chinese officials,” You gotta be kidding me,
most of the richest Chinese ARE the Chinese officials!! If they do end up in
jail, it has much more to do with them accumulating their wealth illegally by
abusing their power, than say, publicly posing a middle finger to Mr. Hu.

This article looks like just another typical heavily biased manipulative CNN
crap, which throws in some data at first to make it believable, and then
hijacked the real reason behind the data, adding their own interpretation.
Reading CNN's news on China is just like reading Fox's news on Obama.

~~~
yelsgib
What do you recommend reading to find out more about what's really going on in
China/South-East Asia?

~~~
fredliu
I would recommend first hand observations from western expats (through their
blogs probably?) that actually live in china or at least spend reasonable
amount of time there. Their opinions may be biased too, but at least it can
give you a bunch of mixed views that are closer to the truth.

As for traditional media, the Economist does tend to be relatively neutral,
and not adding too much of their own "secret ingredients". But that's just my
own opinion.

------
AdamFernandez
This seems to reinforce some points made by Paul Graham in his 'How to Make
Wealth' essay. Especially regarding governments not allowing individuals to
accumulate wealth. <http://paulgraham.com/wealth.html>

~~~
samtp
ALL HAIL PAUL GRAHAM!

------
folkster
Money can buy you bigger houses, fancy clothes, new cars. But it can't buy you
freedom, in China. That's why the millionaires leave, to be free.

~~~
Tsagadai
China is quite free compared to most western countries. If you have money you
are pretty much free to do as you please as long as you keep your head down.
There are two types of crimes in China crimes that get you put away forever or
executed and crimes that you just pay the officer for. Every regulation in
China is basically a tax, you pay someone and it is solved.

~~~
derleth
That is a kind of freedom, perhaps, but it isn't liberty. China is notoriously
short on liberty.

------
kissickas
Can someone enlighten me on how so many (or so few) people got so rich off of
property?

~~~
Shivetya
Party connections.

It is how everything works in a Communist society, everything bends to the
party, the people, the land, the environment. The results to each is usually
the same.

~~~
rue
For the sake of accuracy, China's had little to do with communism for decades
now.

~~~
tokenadult
_China's had little to do with communism for decades now._

Your statement is both true and unfitting to the thread here. The truth is
that the current governing policies of the Communist Party of China (CPC) are
not doctrinaire communism, in the Marxist-Leninist sense, but rather
"socialism with Chinese characteristics," as that party officially labels
those policies. But the key political point, and the key motivation for many
people wanting to leave China, is that the CPC is the sole ruling party and
has been since 1949. Ideology bounces around, but the grip of the CPC on
political power on all levels, and on all the major means of gaining economic
power, is never relaxed. Mass media in China are subject to prepublication
review by censors who are staff members ("cadres") of the CPC. The most
crucial distinction between crimes that are punished and crimes that are left
unpunished is whether or not the crimes threaten the rule of the CPC. And many
activities that are perfectly legal here and in all civilized countries of the
world, such as political dissent, are illegal in China solely because they
threaten the CPC's grip on power.

I speak Chinese. From time to time I have had the opportunity to participate
in seminars with Chinese journalists in the United States, out of earshot of
Chinese censors. Even today, I cannot reveal the name of one journalist who
once expressed a frank opinion in the hearing of several Americans who are
familiar with the situation in China. He said that if the common people of
China had full access to uncensored news, the Communist Party of China would
fall within a week. The huge efforts that the CPC-controlled government in
China makes to set up a "Great Firewall of China" to control Internet access
is a sign that the government greatly fears uncensored access to news for the
Chinese populace.

~~~
_delirium
That's all true, but doesn't seem particularly "communist" in a relevant
way--- that was _also_ true of Greece under the junta, or Spain under Franco.
Wouldn't it be more accurate to just call China an authoritarian or one-party
state?

Heck, even "socialism with Chinese characteristics" is a bit of an anachronism
these days, and the people who take the old conception of it seriously are
seen as left-wingers within the government; it's closer to "one-party
capitalism with Chinese characteristics"...

~~~
stickfigure
_doesn't seem particularly "communist" in a relevant way_

Perhaps in some academic sense. On the other hand, can you name a single
national experiment with communism that didn't become authoritarian? There are
certainly plenty of ugly examples.

~~~
_delirium
Oh, that wasn't the angle I was going for; I'm not arguing that "real
communism will work" or something. Just that it doesn't seem meaningfully
different from "non-communist" authoritarian states, so the label "communist"
appears to be a historical anachronism that doesn't add any real information
in 2011, versus just calling it a "one-party" or "authoritarian" state. In the
1960s, at least, it added the additional bit of information that the
government was attempting to suppress market economics, but that part isn't
true anymore.

------
vph
This is not necessarily a bad thing for China or a good thing for countries
that want these millionaires. I bet after migration many of these millionaires
migrate will establish companies that connect with sources inside China for
outsourcing. In an economic sense, the millionaires are very much Manchurian
candidates.

~~~
acangiano
In Canadian cities like Toronto and Vancouver, you see this very clearly. Many
chinese people are technically in Canada, but they never really left their
home country. They create a small subcity with its own economy, and huge ties
to the homeland. A great deal of them never learn English because they don't
have a need for it.

~~~
nostromo
Maybe for one generation, but I have two great friends who are the children of
these types, and they are as American as anyone.

~~~
smtf
That is an excellent point. I have many second and third generation friends
who's grandparents, and even parents have only assimilated local culture when
absolutely necessary. Their children however are as 'home grown' as you like,
to the point where most laugh at their for-bearers (reverse?) xenophobic
behavior. This is a phenomenon not exclusive to people from the far east
either. The same can be said for many families I know from eastern Europe and
the Middle East.

------
dgallagher
_One quarter of China’s top 1000 richest people obtained their wealth from
property, compared to less than 10% among the world’s 1000 richest, the report
says._

Are they comparing the top-1000 richest people in China to the top-1000
richest people in the world? That's not a very good comparison. It's like
comparing the top-1000 students from a single college, to the top-1000
students from every college in the entire world.

I'm not sure if the actual report makes this comparison too as I cannot read
Chinese.

~~~
jonhendry
It makes perfect sense, as many of those who made a fortune in property
probably obtained that land through party connections and/or party corruption.
How else would they have obtained 'property' in China?

------
itsnotvalid
Not just the millionaires but many people want to too.

------
zanny
Since this is Hacker News and all, I'll pose a question: we had that news
story on how few Indian hackers and tech startups there are, what about in
China? Are any of these millionaires profiting off things like Baidu is with
web tech working for the government?

------
tryitnow
Hmmm, it's really too bad the US doesn't have enough sense to invite more of
these people into our country.

~~~
ImprovedSilence
There's also the little problem of China letting them out.

------
known
Common man also want to leave China [http://www.rediff.com/business/slide-
show/slide-show-1-tech-...](http://www.rediff.com/business/slide-show/slide-
show-1-tech-apple-workers-forced-to-sign-no-suicide-pledge/20110504.htm)

------
keyworks
Just for the record, that photo isn't really China. It's SAR Hong Kong.
Different legal systems, different story.

------
androidstar
THIS IS A PROBLEM

------
berntb
Is the real problem that lots of party functionaries without much money has
power and little oversight? So they can press money out of the local rich,
without repercussions?

Or is political uncertainty the real problem -- the political climate next
month can be halfway back to the cultural revolution?

Or a third alternative?

Edit: Word choice, for clarity.

~~~
nobody3141592
Welcome to a land where the local rich can press money out of party
functionaries!

~~~
chaostheory
I'm not so sure about that. If that were true, I don't think the local rich
would be so eager to join the party membership.

~~~
nobody3141592
You don't have to join the party here - just throw a few $1000 at a
fundraising dinner to get the guy offering the biggest tax breaks elected.

~~~
chaostheory
> just throw a few $1000 at a fundraising dinner to get the guy offering the
> biggest tax breaks elected.

I'm confused. Are we talking about China or Taiwan?

~~~
nobody3141592
The USA

------
simoncpu
Atlas wants to shrug.

------
DamnYuppie
Hmmm.....I can't disagree with the contents of the post. Yet I think it is a
piece written to distract from the issues facing our own nation by doing an
implicit juxtaposition between China and the U.S.

I am of the opinion that we should spend less time denigrating others and more
time having open and honest discussion AND reporting of the issues facing us
here in the U.S. Pointing out issues and flaws in others in now way helps fix
the flaws in ourselves.

~~~
marquis
This is a global site, not a U.S. forum.

~~~
tnuc
It doesn't always appear that way.

