

Why 3-D Printing Isn't Like Virtual Reality - robdoherty2
http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/guest/27533/?ref=rss

======
fraserharris
This is profound:

"Something interesting happens when the cost of tooling-up falls. There comes
a point where your production runs are small enough that the economies of
scale that justify container ships from China stop working. There comes a
point where making new things isn't a capital investment but simply a marginal
one."

The West can return to manufacturing if it becomes a function of the creative
class. This could be a major trend for the next decade.

~~~
marshray
It is a very interesting possibility.

My concern is that if this technology truly is revolutionary but does not
carve out a sufficiently large piece of the pie for the traditional parasites
(e.g., distribution moguls and IP lawyers) it could very easily be outlawed.
(Probably not effectively, but note the number of people who are in jail today
for replicating a plant.) This will be hard since 3D printing potentially
increases wealth with much less involvement of money. So how will they take
their slice of pie?

If it really is a disruptive technology, there will be plenty of cases where
the economic advantages eliminate someone's job. I'm old enough to remember
discussion about US factory workers being replaced by robots. Factory
automation turned out to be far from the main threat to US factory workers'
jobs.

~~~
chii
"main threat to US factory workers' jobs."

There is no such thing as threat - a factory worker who cannot compete MUST be
selected out, and replaced by something that is cheaper. This is for the
betterment of all, at the expense of the said factory worker. This is called
reality and those who choose to prevent efficiency is only retarding progress.

Now, of course, the said factory worker isn't obsolete - they should "skill
up" and do something that currently isn't achievable via low paid labour, or
machines. This is where value is derived, and should be encouraged (ala, re-
education).

~~~
itmag
Personally, I think increasing productivity is a huge reason to implement some
kind of Guaranteed Minimum Income.

This guy puts it better than me: [http://www.xamuel.com/ten-reasons-for-
guaranteed-minimum-inc...](http://www.xamuel.com/ten-reasons-for-guaranteed-
minimum-income/)

Also, I think it's a bit cruel to expect former factory workers to just "skill
up" and become programming ninjas or whatever. Not everyone is born with the
same cognitive assets.

~~~
Gormo
That idea sounds pretty far-fetched. 3D-printing is another step closer to the
ideal of self-sufficiency; similar improvements in agriculture and energy
production all put us on the path toward resuming a kind of modern
homesteading, allowing us to eliminate the role of institutional middlemen in
meeting our basic needs.

Apart from the dubious economics of a Guaranteed Minimum Income, such a
program would _maintain_ the role of institutional intermediaries in our lives
just as self-sufficiency again becomes possible.

~~~
DirkScheuring
Are there reasons why the idea of a Guaranteed Minimum Income could not be
implemented using a peer-to-peer system? Would middlemen be strictly
necessary?

~~~
itmag
How do you mean?

~~~
DirkScheuring
I don't really know (yet?), but it seems to me that what you need is a network
of nodes, such that each node automatically downloads a common amount of money
from a pool once a month. That pool would be filled by the system subtracting
a percentage from the gross income of each node. Is it really necessary that
those calculations are done by a central unit - like the IRS -, or could they
be done in a distributed manner, SETI@home-style?

------
marshray
From the title I'd expected an article making the argument that 3-D printing
was unlike virtual reality, or an explanation of how it came to be unlike VR.

OK, now I see that there was an inline link
<http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/mimssbits/27526/> to an article called
"Why 3-D Printing Will Go the Way of Virtual Reality". This article's only
mention of VR is the claim that "3-D printing, like VR before it, is one of
those technologies that suggest a trend of long and steep adoption driven by
rapid advances on the systems we have now." Which is not really about VR at
all, only saying that VR is an example of a technology which was not adopted
at the rate at which its promise would imply.

So reading between the lines, collectively these authors would seem to imply
that 3-D printing, whatever its merits and limitations, as a technology must
have almost nothing to do with virtual reality. Otherwise, these authors
surely would have mentioned it.

Interesting how the term "virtual reality" predates the term "linkbait" by
many years.

~~~
Maciek416
Agreed, the almost non sequitur mention of VR feels like a straw man. The
authors seem to sort of dismiss VR as a fad that disappeared with the headsets
and Powergloves. Meanwhile, every year, we're seeing a steady march upwards in
GPU power, mass-market uptake of 3D immersive gaming, and devices like the Wii
or Kinect selling like crazy in numbers that would have been unthinkable in
Jaron Lanier's heyday. VR, or aspects of its original "dream", are steadily
making inroads into daily life.

If anything, 3D printing will be exactly like VR in the sense that it will
have an initial burst of excitement in the mass media, followed by a long
steady march toward ubiquitous, banal, take-for-grantedness.

------
bitwize
3D printing is not the future.

Chucking a solid block of metal into a 5-axis CNC mill and having it grind out
an arbitrary shape from a CAD drawing is the future.

I don't see any way of getting parts made out of the requisite materials with
the requisite strength and resolution with "3D printing" technology. It's
great for novelties, like the service which takes your WoW data and prints up
a statuette of your character. But for serious fabrication, good old machining
is still the best bet, coupled with high technology and cheap garage models
with advanced safety protocols that let hobbyists grind out small to medium
sized parts at small scales.

As a bonus you _can_ recycle the shavings.

~~~
pilgrim689
Recycling the shavings isn't a bonus, as there are no shavings to recycle in
additive manufacturing!

I'd like to see a rebuttal to your argument though, why is 3-d printing better
than a "5-axis CNC mill"?

~~~
pacala
A number of dimensions for a comparison:

* How complex an object each technology can produce. Both technologies have various limitations in the shape of the objects that can be produced. 5-axis CNC is limited by the need to find an angle for the arm to hit the shaving point and by the size of the shaving head. 3d-printing is limited by the need to additively deposit on top of existing layers.

* How expensive is the manufacturing equipment. Accurately aiming a high speed, high torque spinning arm in 5d is not particularly simple mechanically and it's likely to require expensive calibration. 3d-printing is much simpler mechanically and easier to calibrate.

* How fast the production process is. Neither process is particularly fast, both are far behind injection molding.

* Strength and strength/weight. 3d-printing has a possible edge for strength/weight because it can print hollow objects.

~~~
forgottenpaswrd
"3d-printing is limited by the need to additively deposit on top of existing
layers."

Not really, you can use another material as support, then dissolve it.

"How fast the production process is. Neither process is particularly fast,
both are far behind injection molding."

Well, if you consider that injection molding usually require WEEKS or MONTHS
to get the first matrix mold done, then 3d printing is super fast.

------
URSpider94
I agree that fab-on-demand technologies will become important in the future,
but I don't buy the vision of a 3D printer (at least, not a good one) in every
home.

Think about the 2D printing analogy -- while almost everyone has a 2D printer
in their home, early every morning, while we're still asleep, a car drives by
our house and hurls a poorly printed bundle of paper at our front stoop
containing the day's news. There's no reason that we COULDN'T each print a
personalized copy of the day's newspaper at home, but the fact is that we
don't. Likewise, I'll bet that most of HN have given up on printing their own
photos at home, and just do the sensible thing and upload them to Shutterfly,
or Target, or WalMart, or any of the other sites that can deliver high-quality
photo prints to your door for pennies.

I just don't believe that the average user will take on the technical
knowledge, space, upkeep and supply costs to run a 3D printer in their house.
But, I can see the day when every Kinko's, or the equivalent, is equipped with
one of these babies.

~~~
commieneko
I'm curious as to how old you are. This is not a slam or being patronizing;
I'm looking to add a data point.

I'm in my 50s and I haven't subscribed to a newspaper in 10 years. Most of the
young people I know, in their 20s do _not_ read physical newspapers and many
of them don't watch broadcast television. Newspapers are fast dying out, and
TV stations are starting to sweat. (I've worked in and out of broadcast TV for
the last 15 years or so.) Demographics are defiantly skewing to older people,
and even those are dropping.

They don't print photos at home _or_ at photoshops. They look at them on their
computers or phones. These days the only time I ever print a photo is for my
96 year old father; he has vision problems looking at screens. Until recently
he was perfectly happy to look at photos on his desktop PC. In fact a major
project I did for him was to scan in boxes and boxes of old photos. (Many of
which I've recently had to print out again into books.)

Now I do know lots of people, guys mostly, who have wood shops or car repair
tools. I'm not really talking about technical people. Mostly guys in their 20s
- 50s. And when I go to the hobby stores these days I see all sorts of
interesting "making" stuff aimed at women. One company makes a CNC paper
cutting machine that is very popular with scrap bookers. They have recently
expanded into a machine that creates elaborate cake decorating layer. And some
of the polymer clay craft systems are very suggestive.

People have always been makers, that's part of what defines people. One of the
advantages to making is that you can make whatever you want. If you _can_ make
it.

~~~
URSpider94
I'm in my mid-30's ... and no, I don't subscribe to a newspaper either, but
lots of people still do. And, as you mention, even if one doesn't subscribe,
the most likely work-around is to view on one's phone/computer, rather than to
print a copy at home.

