
Ask HN: What course/topic/textbook to evaluate if product idea should be pursued? - startup4740
Hi I have more than 100 software product ideas and I want to evaluate which product to pursue.<p>Which textbook&#x2F;readings&#x2F;topics&#x2F;course that I should read up on that would help me in understanding the initial actionable approach to be taken?<p>I know about the approach advised by &quot;The Startup Owner&#x27;s Manual&quot; but I am looking for more scholarly approaches.
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kjksf
If there was a book that (successfully) teaches how to evaluate product ideas
then 9 out of 10 VC funded companies wouldn't fail. Instead of wasting 90% of
their investments a VC would read that book and invested only in the good
ideas.

In the end no one knows anything but there are plenty of people who will give
you advice:

[http://www.innovationmanagement.se/imtool-articles/how-to-
ev...](http://www.innovationmanagement.se/imtool-articles/how-to-evaluate-
ideas/)

[https://thesecondprinciple.com/creativity/criteria-to-
help-e...](https://thesecondprinciple.com/creativity/criteria-to-help-
evaluate-creative-ideas/)

[https://www.creativejeffrey.com/creative/how_to_evaluate_ide...](https://www.creativejeffrey.com/creative/how_to_evaluate_ideas.php)

[https://boss.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/20/establishing-a-
pro...](https://boss.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/20/establishing-a-process-to-
evaluate-ideas/)

[https://www.inc.com/stephen-key/how-to-effectively-
evaluate-...](https://www.inc.com/stephen-key/how-to-effectively-evaluate-
your-new-product-idea.html)

[https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/81940](https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/81940)

[http://www.vandelaydesign.com/business-
idea/](http://www.vandelaydesign.com/business-idea/)

[https://hbr.org/2010/03/the-2minute-opportunity-
checkl](https://hbr.org/2010/03/the-2minute-opportunity-checkl)

[http://www.fuckedupstartups.com/fs-adviser/startup-
initiator...](http://www.fuckedupstartups.com/fs-adviser/startup-initiator-
idea-evaluation-checklist/)

~~~
startup4740
Thanks for sharing your saved links. Will have to read them. I might discuss
them with you later.

------
mindcrime
If you're trying to compare 100+ ideas and choose the "best" one to explore,
I'd suggest looking into a simulation based approach. Monte Carlo
simulation[1] is probably a good place to start. There are dozens of textbooks
that cover the topic.

Now the downside to this is that you have to have parameter ranges for the
model to simulate, and you don't necessarily know the probability distribution
for each variable in the model up front. That means you have to estimate/guess
at them. This makes the exercise slightly error-prone. There is, however, a
mechanism you can use to teach yourself (or others) to do a better job of
estimation. The technique I'm thinking of is "calibrated probability
assessment"[2].

The book _How To Measure Anything_ [3] by Douglas Hubbard does a really nice
job of laying out how to use calibrated probability assessments, mathematical
models, and monte carlo simulation, to build a probability distribution for
things that look hard/impossible to measure.

Anyway, if you build a model for all of your ideas, and monte carlo simulate
all of them to get a probability distribution for the return, then you at
least have something somewhat objective to base a decision on.

One last note though: when doing this kind of simulation, one big risk (aside
from mis-estimating a parameter) is that you leave a particular parameter out
completely. I don't know of any deterministic way to make sure you include all
the relevant features in a model. The best way I know of to address that is to
"crowd source" some help and get as many people as you can (people who have
relevant knowledge / experience) to evaluate and critique your model.

[1]:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method)

[2]:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calibrated_probability_assessm...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calibrated_probability_assessment)

[3]: [https://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-
Busi...](https://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-
Business/dp/1452654204)

~~~
startup4740
Definitely going to read it. I ordered
[https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1422157989/ref=oh_aui_deta...](https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1422157989/ref=oh_aui_detailpage_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1)
yesterday.

Thank you!

