
Japan, Short on Babies, Reaches a Worrisome Milestone - DiabloD3
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/02/business/japan-population-births.html
======
medymed
The argument to increase immigration seems like a quick-fix for countries
poised to become elderly-heavy, but when those immigrants are uneducated and
most likely to perform jobs that will be automated away in 15-20 years (and
face enormous linguistic barriers to participate in e.g. japanese society),
such immigrants may be as much or more long-term dependents as they would have
previously been assets in labor-heavy economies. Weathering the geriatric
storm for a generation or two until a new and lower post-industrial carrying
capacity is reached could be a smoother long term social and economic
proposition for such countries, especially if they aren't immigrant-friendly
already.

~~~
andreiw
Cap'n Obvious here, but immigration by non-Japanese in face of falling
Japanese demographics will ultimately result in a country that's not really
Japan anymore. That's probably a fact of life, if you consider societies to be
living entities, and thus bound by the same constraints...and yet even as a
non-Japanese it feels really sad to recognize that Japan as a unique nation,
with a unique culture and society might disappear. Not much to do, though, if
they don't want to have kids...

~~~
krapp
Japan's cultural uniqueness is mostly a romantic myth. People act as if the
Sakoku period was the norm for Japan and not an exception, but Japan has been
just as susceptible to cultural influence as any other country. Much of that
"unique culture" was adapted from China, much more of it from the West. That's
not in any way calling it illegitimate, a lot of Western countries borrow from
one another (or impose cultural change through violence) or crib from the
ancient Greeks or Romans. The process of cultural admixture and transformation
through trade, religion and violence is the same everywhere. Westerners just
seem to ignore the phenomenon as it relates to Japan, I suspect, to maintain
some sense of exoticism about the place.

Japan would lose its ethnic homogeneity, but to me that's not something worth
caring about or mourning the loss of. The culture would change, but culture
always changes.

~~~
mistermann
> Japan's cultural uniqueness is mostly a romantic myth

Have you been there? I can't imagine anyone who has spent any amount of time
in Japan would claim there is no cultural uniqueness.

~~~
krapp
I may have just been imprecise in my wording. I was addressing andreiw's
assertion that Japan would "not really (be) Japan anymore" after cultural
influence from immigration. But Japan's culture is _already_ the beneficiary
of a great deal of foreign cultural influence, so nothing would happen to it
with respect to immigration that hasn't been happening to it since practically
the dawn of time.

At best, the rate of cultural transformation might be accelerated, but even
then I suspect the doomsday scenario of Japan simply vanishing in a generation
(or whatever) due to an influx of immigrants is unlikely. If the Meiji
restoration or the American occupation didn't destroy Japan's cultural
identity then a few thousand more gaijin won't either.

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therealdrag0
Seems like a completely valid social trajectory. I don't get why it is
considered so grim.

> "The government has taken steps to keep older workers in their jobs longer,
> and to encourage companies to invest in automation."

> "Individual Japanese will not necessarily be poorer just because the economy
> is smaller."

Sure there will be shrinking pains, but it doesn't seem like a catastrophe.
Seems like it will ease more responsible use of our space and environment.

~~~
tanilama
Young are fewer and fewer, there will be few tax income to pay pension to the
old people, thus, the government either slash the pension or raise tax. And it
is death spiral anyway.

Japan's good days are indeed numbered. The breakpoint will come, and I would
predict an huge exdous of young people leaving Japan, because they don't want
to spend their whole life working for older generation then finding there will
be no one for themselves.

~~~
mistermann
But where will they go as the same thing will be happening to most western
countries as their tax base is hollowed out due to the failure of largely
trust based basis of their taxation systems, and as more and more economic
activity has moved overseas or under the table, and profits stored outside the
formal system?

~~~
tanilama
There will be countries that will die later.

------
bluthru
An economy depending on population growth is incompatible with physics. If we
care about climate change we should want every country to have a population
decline until we can live within our carbon means.

~~~
colechristensen
The universe is a big place. Moving to other planets isn't only reasonable,
people are planning for it. Sustained growth is possible.

~~~
yourapostasy
Anytime I see talk of mass colonization as part of a solution to
overpopulation, I direct people to Charles Stross' discussion about the
infeasibility of doing so [1] [2]. The TL;DR is: until we find a breakthrough
like cheap anti-gravity (like depicted in _Interstellar_ ), moving that much
sheer mass of humanity is energetically (with the required specific impulse)
not within our civilization's current capabilities.

[1] [http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-
static/2007/06/the_high...](http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-
static/2007/06/the_high_frontier_redux.html)

[2] [http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2010/08/space-
ca...](http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2010/08/space-cadets.html)

------
raz32dust
Could this end up being a blessing in disguise? I know traditional theory says
that more people => more productivity => bigger economy. But with no people to
produce anything, Japan might be forced to lead the world in AI adoption
simply because there is no other way. While US or China might be leading in AI
technology, they will face severe pushback because of displacement of jobs.
Japan on the other hand might actually require general purpose AI to do daily
chores. It could be the first big market for general purpose human-level
intelligence robots and all the problems it brings.

~~~
netheril96
I am under the impression that IT industry is far less active in Japan than US
and China. While more old people may demand more automation, more old people
also breed more conservatism, hampering the adoption and development of new
technology.

~~~
zanny
This is something I never heard of thought of in the context of aging
populations but it sounds true. It builds a self perpetuating cycle - if the
population pyramid leans older, it leans more conservative, which drives an
agenda that limits volatility and thus innovation, which can stagnate an
economy that can constrict reproduction if there isn't enough prosperity to
justify having children.

------
themgt
'Official efforts to encourage women to have more children have had only
modest results, and there is little public support for large-scale immigration
— something that has helped to stabilize populations in other wealthy
countries with low birthrates. ... “A lot of the things we’re used to in Japan
are really products of an era of population growth, like single-breadwinner
families and mandatory retirement ages,” said Takaaki Tahara, research
director at the Japan Institute for Labor Policy and Training. “The mind-set
will have to change.”'

If "the things we're used to" are products of an era of population growth and
impossible without it (even with a steady-state population size), then we're
basically admitting those aspects were dependent on a ponzi scheme. Might as
well let developed countries populations level off, for a number of reasons.

------
uptown
I don't buy into everything in this ZeroHedge post, but there's some
interesting data regarding birthrate trends in the United States and
elsewhere, and its impact on the economy:

[http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-24/why-next-
recession-...](http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-24/why-next-recession-
will-morph-decades-long-depressionary-event-or-worse)

~~~
xiaoma
It's mildly concerning considering that Europe, Japan and especially China
will be facing a _more_ extreme inverted age pyramid than the US 20 years from
now. India won't, but it's already straining under the weight of its
considerable population.

20 years is a long time though, especially given how much work is getting
automated.

~~~
collyw
What exactly is being automated?

Cars to an extent, but I don't see a great deal else. Supermarkets got
automatic checkouts a while ago, yet the majority are still normal staffed
ones. The airline industry has been pretty far ahead of the game in terms of
automation, yet still needs a lot of staff.

~~~
uptown
This post has some good data on that topic:

[https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-jobs-automation-
risk...](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-jobs-automation-risk/)

------
getpost
Philip Longman explained why depopulation is a problem in this 2004 Long Now
lecture[0]. One of the main issues is that infrastructure and social spending
is implemented as a pyramid scheme (he didn't put it quite that way IIRC). If
you don't have an expanding population, you can't pay for all the programs
that have been enacted. Of course, population can not expand indefinitely and
there's no political will to avoid passing financial burdens to future
generations.

[0] [http://longnow.org/seminars/02004/aug/13/the-depopulation-
pr...](http://longnow.org/seminars/02004/aug/13/the-depopulation-problem/)

------
godzillabrennus
Japan has eschewed immigration in favor of population decline. It'll be
interesting seeing how this plays out compared to how the rest of the world is
handling an influx of Muslim immigrants.

~~~
bluthru
>Up to three quarters of Germany’s refugees will still be unemployed in five
years’ time, according to a government minister, in a stark admission of the
challenges the country faces in integrating its huge migrant population.

>Aydan Özoğuz, commissioner for immigration, refugees and integration, told
the Financial Times that only a quarter to a third of the newcomers would
enter the labour market over the next five years, and “for many others we will
need up to 10”.

[https://www.ft.com/content/022de0a4-54f4-11e7-9fed-c19e27000...](https://www.ft.com/content/022de0a4-54f4-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f?mhq5j=e3)

------
hugh4life
Here are a couple things I think societies struggling with birth rates should
try.

1\. Provide for the full costs of IVF and egg donation for non-fertile women
up to age 50 and letting that fact be well known and encouraged. 2\. Promote
platonic co-parenting relationships for those in their 30s.

~~~
mistermann
Created some sort of supervised babysitting by seniors service in old folks
homes, largely free childcare (most western countries have a childcare crisis
at the moment) and a MUCH happier and fulfilling retirement for seniors.

------
reustle
One thing I noticed here in Japan that is sort of related is the lack of
reasonable access to birth control control. You need to go to a doctor/ clinic
to get the pills, and they are not exactly cheap. That is hurdle 1.

Even worse is the morning after pill / emergency pill. You must go to a
doctor/clinic for that as well and it costs $200 usd.

They definitely make it scarier / more difficult to have sex here.

~~~
collyw
There are other options for birth control.

------
jfoster
What's driving this? Why is it happening in Japan, but not other places?

~~~
hn_throwaway_99
It is happening other places (check out lots of countries in Eastern Europe).
Making it worse in Japan is their aversion to immigration (as pointed out in
the article), and the cultural forces that make Japan extremely unfriendly to
working mothers.

