
Proximate vs. Root Causes: Why You Should Keep Digging to Find the Answer (2017) - ingve
https://fs.blog/2017/05/proximate-vs-root-causes/
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contingencies
_Post-accident attribution to a 'root cause' is fundamentally wrong._ \-
Richard I. Cook, MD. 'How Complex Systems Fail'.

 _In the complex world, the notion of 'cause' itself is suspect; it is either
nearly impossible to detect or not really defined - another reason to ignore
newspapers, with their constant supply of causes for things._ \- Nassim Taleb

... via
[https://github.com/globalcitizen/taoup](https://github.com/globalcitizen/taoup)

~~~
pdonis
It's true that in a complex world, there isn't going to be a single cause for
anything significant; there will be multiple causes and there can be complex
relationships between them. The article recognizes that very point:

 _" The issue with root cause analysis is that it can lead to
oversimplification and it is rare for there to be one single root cause."_

But that is not at all the same as the notion of cause itself being suspect.
Taleb on that point is simply wrong.

~~~
Qqqwxs
>> "The issue with root cause analysis is that it can lead to
oversimplification and it is rare for there to be one single root cause."

Root cause analysis is a complex and varied topic, discounting it so easily is
an oversimplification.

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jmchuster
I tend to prefer to frame it slightly differently as "given this same
situation again in the future, how do i ensure that the outcome ends up
favorably for me instead?" or "how do i enure that i don't encounter such
situations in the future?"

The root cause to me is only useful in that it might provide insight in how to
improve my life going forward.

~~~
sitkack
I think included in that framework is also, "thing over which I have the most
control or could be controlled".

We don't say the root cause is that time flows forward. Or that gravity can't
be stopped or shielded. Or that I can't directly copy my ideas into your head
w/o playing out a story. Direct teleportation of knowledge, feelings,
thoughts, arguments and truths. Root causes are like the free variables. The
universe is the fixed.

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codr7
Is it just me, or does this look more like a propaganda piece to confuse and
guilt trip employees into learning in their free time than an attempt to
explain anything? Seriously, who comes up with these examples?

Every action has consequences (also commonly called karma) and every effect
has its causes. And that's about it. Picking an arbitrary cause and insisting
it's special doesn't look very constructive from here.

~~~
mikekchar
I often read the comments section before reading the article because it gives
me an indication if I want to read the article. In this case, your comment
made me very curious. Keep in mind that my point of view is coloured by the
fact that I was _looking_ for something out of the ordinary.

I found the examples fairly innocuous. It makes me wonder if you have been
recently getting criticism that you consider unfair. It's easy to have your
mind latch on to that kind of thing. I think it is especially easy if you
consider the advice given to be unsound.

In this case the situation is that the person is laid off from their job and
they are considering the causes. It is interesting that all of the causes
listed are their _own fault_. While it is not discussed in any detail in the
article, I think this is actually a big part of doing root causes analysis. It
is not useful to spend a lot of time doing analysis on things that you can do
nothing about. I think this is why the author is focusing on "what could I do
differently".

I found your comment of "propaganda piece to confuse and guild trip employees
into learning in their free time" to be interesting. Now, again, keep in mind
that I'm an older guy who is much nearer retirement than starting out and that
my biggest fault at work is that I work too hard (especially these days
because my body can't handle it and I end up less productive than I could be).
However, I have found that the sentiment you seem to endorse is often quite
counter productive for software developers. If you are not a software
developer, then maybe this won't apply, but it might be interesting anyway.

I don't know if you are young or old, experienced or relatively new at this
stuff. However, if I could only give young developers a single piece of advice
it's that you can't stop learning and that your boss probably won't pay for
all the learning you need to do. I'm still able to code professionally,
despite my white hair, _because_ I spend an inordinate amount of time learning
both on and off the job. I can do remote development from rural Japan
_because_ I can pick up new fashion and become proficient with it as fast as
my employer needs me to be.

When I first started, the good jobs I had available to me required me to know
JCL, APL, COBOL and DB2. And while you can probably make a decent wage doing
this kind of work now, you aren't going to have any choices about where you
live (or probably even what colour of tie to wear...).

It sucks in many ways. I wish any of my previous employers had decided that
they wanted to allow me to spend a big chunk of my work day using technology
and techniques that they didn't need yet. But... There are like 10x more
programmers now than there were when I first started. It's _much_ easier to
simply lay off the previous ones and bring on the new ones. First, they'll be
trained on the new technology. Second, they'll be eager to use it. Third,
they'll be half the price.

Just going to say it again to let it sink in. I compete against people who
already know the new technology, have more energy than me and who cost half my
salary. Saying, "But I'm old", just doesn't cut it for keeping your job ;-)

It's not that I don't understand what you are saying, but I think your
conclusions are in many ways dangerously naive. If it's the case that you've
got 30-40 years of experience and it's all worked out for you with that kind
of attitude, then I will rush to your side to learn your secret. If not, I
hope you will consider a more pragmatic view of navigating through your
career.

And, yes, I think the kind of thinking promoted by this article can be
helpful.

~~~
codr7
Not much, no.

I can think of several causes that are more likely in the described scenarios.
The fact that younger employees often are easier and cheaper to exploit is
fairly well known, as is the fact that plenty of employers don't mind playing
that game in the name of awesome profits. The total disregard for experience
goes a long way to explaining why nothing works very well these days.

To me it sounds more like you have a horse in this race yourself, like you
wouldn't mind guilt tripping employees in the name of profit.

~~~
mikekchar
If profit was a motive for me, then I would not keep doing this job for so
long ;-) Good luck, anyway. I occasionally try to reach out if I think it
might be useful to the person writing. It seems like I wasn't successful this
time.

