
The Iowa Caucus, Pseudo-Events, and Hyperreality - longdefeat
https://theconvivialsociety.substack.com/p/the-convivial-society-dispatch-no-be8
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socialdemocrat
Can't say I fully got it. Probably because at this point I am tired of paying
attention to train wreak American elections are. Why, why oh why are American
elections ALWAYS screwed up in some way? How come every other rich country
manage to run elections fine, but not the US? They can send a man to the moon,
but they cannot run elections: Either ballot boxes go missing. The lines of
voters go around the block, it closes before people can vote or the voting
machines are broken, hacked, failed or whatever.

It is almost morbidly fascinating how there is some new way every election
where things get bungled somehow.

~~~
ls612
The vast majority of electoral voting in the US works basically as intended.
Most polling places don’t have long lines except perhaps right when they open
because people lined up ahead of time. Most states have some sort of paper
ballot that is machine counted to save time (which IS a legitimate concern in
a general election with 130mm votes or so cast). Before yesterday every state
has for many election cycles run primaries or caucuses without this sort of
snafu.

I’m assuming you aren’t American based on your comment. You only read about
the snafus because “everything went well yesterday in our city’s/state’s
election” isn’t news for us. It’s normal.

~~~
coredog64
I would also add in the complexity of US elections. Depending on the year you
have multiple federal, state, and local positions. Add to that ballot
initiatives and it’s not difficult to have a ballot that is both sides of an
A2 sheet of paper.

Even with all that, I’ve never had to wait more than 30 minutes.

Also, while Election Day isn’t a federal holiday, ~40 states have a legal
requirement that employers give employees time off to vote. (Not in the OP’s
initial list, but something people generally bring up without knowing the
facts on the ground)

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PaulHoule
I was surprised to see it mention this 1962 book:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Image:_A_Guide_to_Pseudo-e...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Image:_A_Guide_to_Pseudo-
events_in_America)

certainly you find many books in history circa the 1960s that take it for
granted that American culture has been full of BS from the very beginning, but
that book clearly dates before the surge in French Theory, TV News as we know
it, ...

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elhudy
>Yes, he’s right, that assumption is not warranted. We don’t need to know
immediately and the desire for immediacy is part of the problem, but that no
longer matters. It hasn’t mattered for years. In the currently-existing media-
political environment, waiting a day or a week is unthinkable.

This premise seems at least somewhat disagreeable. Let's say I live in New
Hampshire and am equally partial to two candidates, and dislike the front-
running candidate.

It's advantageous for me to know as soon as possible which of my two favorable
candidates best competes against the front-runner, so I can focus my donations
and support on them asap.

Am I missing the point?

~~~
maxerickson
Your example is coherent, but you don't make an argument about the magnitude
of the advantage.

If we take the week between the Iowa mountains and the New Hampshire primary,
donating 24 or 36 hours earlier is likely to be worth essentially nothing.

~~~
elhudy
>Your example is coherent, but you don't make an argument about the magnitude
of the advantage.

Admittedly there's no data that exists to support a large magnitude of
advantage. Likewise though, the author has none either yet is making the claim
that it "doesn't matter". It's purely theoretical.

It would be like saying that whoever wins the jump-ball at the start of a
basketball game is irrelevant, because the other team gets the ball at half
anyway. Yet strangely enough, we find it gives a 3.5% win rate advantage.

[https://kenpom.com/blog/the-value-of-ben-
gillery/](https://kenpom.com/blog/the-value-of-ben-gillery/)

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JackFr
The machine needs to be fed.

Multiple 24-hour news channels need to put something on the air to sell ads,
as do the network news programs. To say nothing of print and the web.

Honestly its information pollution.

~~~
war1025
The information vacuum was pretty palpable this morning.

The programming was all set up assuming there would be new information for
people to talk about. Guests were lined up. Alternate stories were shelved or
delayed.

Then there was no new information. But they still had time to fill. Plus they
had special coverage last night with no information to report.

I do not envy the reporters put in that position.

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xvedejas
These pseudo-events are almost necessary in our first-past-the-post system, to
build consensus among two wings and avoid the spoiler effect. With its air of
legitimacy it creates a schelling point (or two) so that a bunch of strangers
can cooperate in a very strange game. It doesn't really matter what schelling
point you choose, just that you're able to choose the same one, and your
expected payoff will be higher.

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TurkishPoptart
A weird article, but the title reminded me of this documentary:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HyperNormalisation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HyperNormalisation)

I think everyone should watch it.

