
Why Everyone is Afraid of Apple - cryptnoob
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/109446/why-everyones-afraid-of-apple
======
robotrout

          if you wanted to buy the entire company it would 
          cost you about $240 billion.
    
          To put that in context, for the same amount of money 
          you could own Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM - News), 
          the world's largest gold-mining company,
    
          And E.I. Du Pont de Nemours & Co. And Kellogg Co., 
          And Shrek studio DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc,
          And H&R Block Inc. (NYSE: HRB - News), 
          And The New York Times Co. And Molson Coors Brewing,
          And the Estee Lauder Cos Inc. And Tiffany & Co.,
          the Hershey Co., Harley-Davidson Inc., Expedia Inc., 
          Abercrombie & Fitch Co., American Eagle Outfitters, 
          Burger King Holdings Inc., CBS Corp., Chipotle 
          Mexican Grill Inc., Whole Foods Market Inc., 
          Starbucks Corp., Netflix Inc., JetBlue Airways Corp.,
          NStar, and Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc.
    

Not even the most ardent Apple fan, I would assume, could believe this is a
fair valuation.

[Edited to add list of names that didn't make my original cut and paste.]

~~~
randrews
He actually goes on to list another dozen or so companies; Apple's valuation
is all of those _combined_.

~~~
karzeem
Apple's P/E is just under 22, which is not terribly expensive for a company
that just launched a new, multibillion dollar product line (the iPad) and who
has the dominant product in a rapidly expanding market (smartphones).

The writer puts it as "Would you rather own Apple or [long list of
companies]?" That's a little misleading, because any of those companies could
be overvalued or undervalued by the market, and because betting all your money
on one company is almost always less attractive than spreading your risk over
a dozen different ones.

~~~
celoyd
_betting all your money on one company is almost always less attractive than
spreading your risk over a dozen different ones._

As a minority shareholder, perhaps, but not necessarily as an owner.

------
vtail
"Journalists are terrified of this company too.

Why? Just ask Jason Chen - the editor at tech blog Gizmodo who got his hands
on the next iPhone. Apple's response? They sent in the police, who smashed
down Chen's front door, ransacked his house -- while he was out -- and carted
off computers and files. When Chen returned home from dinner with his wife,
they frisked him too."

This is the kind of argument they are making to support the point????

~~~
czhiddy
> Apple's response? They sent in the police ...

This, like much of the article, is complete hyperbole (unless you actually
believe Apple controls the police force).

~~~
btmorex
It's hyberbole, but on the other hand, it's ridiculous to think that Apple had
nothing to do with it. If Apple remains silent, doesn't file any sort of
police report, nothing would have happened.

That said, Apple has been a litigious, heavy-handed company for it's entire
history so their actions aren't surprising.

~~~
Tamerlin
So has Jobs' other company (Pixar).

------
hswolff
This type of writing: "That new iPhone? What a total meh. So what if it has
new volume controls? Or a metal strip around the side? Apple needs people to
line up round the block for its next product. Will this really be enough?"
shows that this author isn't so much as writing an opinion piece as he is
sensationalizing and capitalizing on a trend of articles hearkening the fall
of Apple for reasons I cannot truly fathom.

I can't help but remember the article posted yesterday IIRC which made the
point: Why are we worried about Apple? Isn't it Wall Street that truly has the
power to make everything get fubar'ed?

These articles just tire me...

------
calebgilbert
Gotta post this somewhere to get it off my chest, so might as well be here -

...as someone who was using OS9 when Apple had a death watch on it there's a
certain amount of schadenfreude, mixed with wonder, at this situation of Apple
as the 800lb gorilla. I get a giant kick out of the whole thing. :-)

That is all.

~~~
jacquesm
I'd get a kick out of Apple if it were showing microsoft how you can be
successful without pulling all kinds of (dirty) tricks.

Unfortunately it looks like they are at least as bad as microsoft ever was and
that the gospel according to Jobs is not that far removed from the gospel
according to Gates. The one thing they've got going for them is that stuff
appears to look better and works better, otherwise the new boss is the same as
the old boss.

~~~
profgubler
It is the dilemma of the righteous dictator. We have a dictator who is good to
use, but he is still a dictator. And you are constantly afraid of the next one
that you don't know.

~~~
glhaynes
Naw, if the next one's bad I'll just switch to Android or whatever. :)

------
keltex
One metric of how negative sentiment is the short ratio of the stock (percent
of shares sold short). For comparison:

AAPL - 1.3% (<http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AAPL+Key+Statistics>)

MSFT - 0.7% (<http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=msft+Key+Statistics>)

GOOG - 1.4% (<http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=goog+Key+Statistics>)

~~~
nandemo
Every time someone sells short someone is buying. So how is short ratio useful
to measure "negative sentiment"?

Short selling might be used for technical reasons. For instance, an option
trader might sell put options and at the same time sell the stock short for
hedging. If the stock price goes down he loses money on the options but gains
when he covers the short sell. That is, he might be betting on variables other
than the stock price.

------
csomar
I think it's very challenging for Apple. Apple is making a skyrocketing
revenue because iPad and iPhone sales has boomed. But iPad won't sell for 300K
piece everyday, that only happened the first day... actually it can sell! Yes,
but there is an interesting point (so that it sells at such high rate): Apple
"must" dominate the market.

For the iPhone, the competition is now fierce: Android, BlackBerry, Palm,
Windows mobile and Nokia! Nokia is already a major player, they won't let
Apple take the market easily and cheaply. They'll do marketing, new phones and
crazy things to preserve their position.

That said, as competition is getting though, Apple has got to spend more on
marketing and improving their products (taking down their profit, even if
their sales are up, because they are spending more). Only if they dominate the
market, then your investment will pay back.

My advice is: don't get in this stock. It's very risky; unless you believe
that the iPhone and iPad will become standards ;)

~~~
visava
After using the Mac for the first time ( bought it just for iPhone development
) I was impressed . Forget iPhone and iPad , what if Mac becomes the standard.
Read 'Mac is back' by Paul Graham. Many of my friends who do not do any
programming bought Mac recently. Windows PC now feels like a waste of time to
me. Maybe the masses will catch up later.

~~~
bad_user
> _what if Mac becomes the standard_

The only way that can happen is if OS X can be licensed to third-party
computer manufacturers.

Most computer users just browse the net or read/write documents and
spreadsheets. Why would they want an overpriced Mac for doing that?

That's partly the reason why I once thought that Linux will overtake the
market, because of its price. But apparently there are other forces that keep
Windows dominating, like familiarity and compatibility with existing apps
(your free or shiny OS doesn't mean shit if I can't run my apps on it).

> _'Mac is back' by Paul Graham_

I'm pretty sure Paul Graham got disappointing with Apple by now. Read "Apple's
mistake".

Why in the world would you substitute a control freak for another (even worse
in some cases) control freak?

~~~
drenei
> _Most computer users just browse the net or read/write documents and
> spreadsheets._

Which is what the iPad was created to target.

> _your free or shiny OS doesn't mean shit if I can't run my apps on it_

The only application I know of where I prefer the Windows implementation to
what is available for my Mac is Quickbooks. There might be other narrow
verticals (CAD?) where you don't have best of breed software available for
Apple's OS, but by and large in 2010 worrying about software availability for
a Mac is a moot point.

~~~
csomar
> _Which is what the iPad was created to target._

I doubt the iPad will be as powerful as Excel and as comfortable as a desktop
PC.

~~~
danudey
Numbers on the iPad (or on the Mac for that matter) will never be as powerful
as Excel, if for no other reason than 99% of users don't use 99% of features.

The parent poster mentioned users that just 'browse the net or read/write
documents and spreadsheets', and those types of people generally don't use
most of what Excel offers. What they do use (formulas, charts, sheets, styles,
etc.) Numbers does offer, and it does quite well.

------
itg
He is giving Apple way too much credit. It's not like Apple did shady business
deals/practices to get in their current position, it's because people
genuinely like their products for whatever reason (interface/ease of
use/design). And because a niche group of people (tech geeks) don't like apple
products doesn't mean the general public won't find those products appealing.

~~~
Terretta
So you mean he's not giving them _enough_ credit.

------
adrianwaj
I'd love to see Apple do a watch, or a clip-on to a watch that enabled
financial transactions as a substitute for cash.

It'd probably need some type of rfid, and the merchant some type of biometric,
otherwise if someone saw the watch, they might be tempted to steal.

~~~
jacquesm
Why wait for Apple to do it?

A friend of mine is doing this, but on a card, not a watch:

They'll be going live within the next couple of months, keep an eye out for
something called the real X card.

~~~
adrianwaj
Trust, reliability, scale, innovation, reach, longevity, security, efficiency:
that's what will separate the men from the boys!

------
jaekwon
A lot depends on iAds.

That could be a game changer, though I don't see the profit from iAds matching
that of mac/iPhone/iPad/app sales.

Ugh, are we going to see iAds in addition to Google ads while browsing the
web?

~~~
danudey
The numbers that have been floating around for inclusion into the iAds are in
the millions. You don't get to be part of iAds unless you have serious money,
so I think we can assume Apple's going to at least cover their costs.

As for seeing iAds elsewhere - perhaps, but it seems unlikely. Still, Apple's
take on ads is that they want to make ads people _like_. The example he
demonstrated, the Toy Story 3 ad, is something I can honestly see myself
playing around with for a while. It's entertaining, it's involving. It's not
going to be boring, garish text ads like Google ads, uglying up the page.

There's something to be said for the idea of adding taste and style back into
online advertising.

------
xsddkfj
How about this statistic:

    
    
        Apple could pay, today and in cash, over 13% of Greece's debt.
    

Astonishing, isn't it? :)

------
krschultz
On the other hand, the P/E ratio of Google's stock is still higher than
Apple's.

Apple - 21.72

Google - 23.10

Microsoft - 15.44

------
InclinedPlane
Apple is fundamentally a different kind of company than almost all other
software or hardware companies. The prospect of J. Average Computer Company
competing against J. Other Average Computer Company is straightforward, all
that it takes to win against them is to keep doing what you're doing, only
better, or more. The prospect of competing against Apple might be a bit more
daunting, because potential it requires completely remaking your entire
company to be more Apple-like, which is something most companies are utterly
incapable of doing.

This is despite the fact that Apple isn't even especially dominant in any
area, not to the same degree that Microsoft, Google, or Amazon are dominant.

~~~
rimantas
Apple is fundamentally a different kind of company than almost all other
software or hardware companies.

I was just reading this today (it's not fresh, I just got around to read it
finaly):
[http://www.pragmaticmarketing.com/publications/magazine/6/4/...](http://www.pragmaticmarketing.com/publications/magazine/6/4/you_cant_innovate_like_apple)

~~~
InclinedPlane
I don't think it's necessary to be exactly like Apple to compete successfully
against them. However, there are so few companies in the software industry
that manage to demonstrate Apple's rare combination of talents that there
really is no other model for how to do it.

Also, the perception of Apple as being exceptional and unique is greatly aided
by the generally dysfunctional state of the entire industry in general.

------
TotlolRon
Me thinks it is mainly because Apple delivers what others only envision. Which
is scary.

~~~
smokinn
I find it's rather that they take care of _every_ detail. I refuse to buy an
iPhone but I'm still not satisfied with the state of Android phones.

There's the phones with the great cameras (but are underpowered). There's the
phones with the great cpus (but wasted because of low ram) There's the phones
with the good extra UI (wasted because they're underpowered) There's the good
middle ground handicapped by a really old version of Android and no multi-
touch.

Etc.

Whereas the iPhone just has it all.

~~~
lurkinggrue
With Apple the shortcomings are sold as features and then later given to you
as an innovation.

I almost expected them to release the iPhone shuffle that had no screen and
randomly called people.

~~~
tvon
To an extent. Most companies seem to aim for a product that does well on a
feature-grid of checkboxes more than in actual use. Apple would (apparently)
rather that they had half the checkboxes but that those things worked very,
very well (or intuitively, or smoothly, or in a magical way, etc).

In other words, it's not as if an iPhone friendly multitasking setup was
available and they just ripped it out so they could have a big reveal two
years later. In their eyes at least, the "innovation" is that they did it in
an "Apple way".

~~~
pyre
I think the point is that Apple poo-poos the idea that a phone even _needs_ a
background API, then releases a background API to great fanfare as if they
were the first ones to have such an idea, all the while patting themselves on
the back. (i.e. "We weren't the first ones to do multi-tasking, but we _were_
the first ones to do multi-tasking _on the iPhone!_ Yay us!")

~~~
zweben
Pretty sure that's more marketing than anything to do with their product
strategy. They release the best products they can, but implementing features
better than their competitors means it takes them longer, so they talk down
any feature they don't offer yet, and then hype it up once they offer it.

------
joubert
I have to thank apple for higher ebook prices?

