
Cheapest Solar on Record Offered as Abu Dhabi Expands Renewables - Osiris30
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-19/cheapest-solar-on-record-said-to-be-offered-for-abu-dhabi
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tekni5
Under 2.5 cents per a kWh is very cheap, but I'm guessing there are other
costs like storage on top?

Anyways will be interesting to see for the future if solar actually becomes a
more dominant source of energy worldwide.

~~~
diafygi
You can get to approximately 50% penetration safely without storage[1], then
you have to start adding factors that can deal with intermittent sources like
wind and solar[2]. It doesn't have to be storage, either. You can used demand
response signals to outsource your "storage" by paying people to turn off
their electric vehicle charging or ice manufacturing for a period of time. In
energy, reducing demand has the same result as increasing supply.

Additionally, in hotter places like the UAE, solar irradiation tends to
correlate much more with grid load, since cooling is the primary energy use.
So, you could safely push well beyond the 50% penetration point for
solar/wind.

[1]:
[https://people.eecs.berkeley.edu/~vsmith/docs/renewables_sgc...](https://people.eecs.berkeley.edu/~vsmith/docs/renewables_sgc_2013.pdf)

[2]:
[https://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/pdfs/2010ulw_ellis.pdf](https://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/pdfs/2010ulw_ellis.pdf)

~~~
Loic
> solar irradiation tends to correlate much more with grid load.

This is a very interesting remark. Last week, we had relatively high
temperatures in Germany and France (above 30°C). In Germany, because the
weather was perfect for solar, this reduced the middle of the day spot price
where in France, this increased the spot price[0].

[0]: [https://www.eex.com/en/](https://www.eex.com/en/) "European Energy
Exchange"

~~~
brownbat
In the US, the peaks are in the afternoon, when you have a mix of business and
residential use along with lingering high temperatures in summer.[0]

In the UK, meanwhile, peak load is driven by tea kettles and Eastenders.[1]

[0a] [http://cleantechnica.com/2014/07/21/utilities-cry-fowl-
over-...](http://cleantechnica.com/2014/07/21/utilities-cry-fowl-over-duck-
chart-and-distributed-solar-powercrying-fowl-or-crying-wolf-open-season-on-
the-utilitys-solar-duck-chart/)

[0b] [http://businesstech.co.za/news/hardware/86252/new-battery-
te...](http://businesstech.co.za/news/hardware/86252/new-battery-tech-will-
change-how-we-use-power/)

[0c] [https://www.cnet.com/news/a-technology-race-to-curb-peak-
ene...](https://www.cnet.com/news/a-technology-race-to-curb-peak-energy-
demand/)

[0d] There's a great NPR viz on power sources around the US, though somewhat
dated now: [http://www.npr.org/2009/04/24/110997398/visualizing-the-
u-s-...](http://www.npr.org/2009/04/24/110997398/visualizing-the-u-s-electric-
grid)

[1]
[http://www.bbc.co.uk/britainfromabove/stories/people/teatime...](http://www.bbc.co.uk/britainfromabove/stories/people/teatimebritain.shtml)

------
splike
Efficient renewable energy is great, but isn't the problem storage of that
energy? Without storage, the energy generated by renewables needs to be used
up by the grid immediately. Won't most of it be wasted?

~~~
cm3
I've been wondering why AC units for buildings don't come in solar cell combi
packages, where if it's hot, it's sunny, so the ac can be powered by the sun,
ideally making it a zero sum calculation.

~~~
__Joker
Because it is not cost effective. Fossil fuel is still cheaper. Unless solar
prices ( installation- panel, batteries) comes down or subsidised to match
those existing prices, it will still take some time .

~~~
toomuchtodo
Wind is already cheaper than fossil fuels unsubsidized; solar will get there
in the next 12-18 months (without storage).

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bmetz
I'm gung-ho on solar but the article clearly says there is a low penalty for
going over budget. They may just be guessing where prices will be by the time
they have to pay for the panels.

------
cowardlydragon
What kind of solar were these? I read the first couple pages and my skim
didn't find them.

If they aren't perovskite (and probably can't be since those are oh-so-close
but not being manufactured), that raises two exciting possiblities:

1) another jump when perovskit ~20% efficient cells are produced en masse

2) The hybrid perovskite + other types variants that give even better
efficiency with mixed costs...

As I understand it, the only challenge with perovskites now is that they break
down in contact with humidity IIRC. Great for deserts though?

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nobrains
How does that compare to other existing energy generation sources today?

~~~
diafygi
The investment firm Lazard has a nice report[1] on comparing U.S. energy costs
by source. Here's the costs in the U.S. (without counting subsidies):

    
    
        * Wind:          $  32/MWh
        * Solar:         $  43/MWh
        * Natural Gas:   $  52/MWh
        * Coal:          $  65/MWh
        * Geothermal:    $  82/MWh
        * Biomass:       $  82/MWh
        * Nuclear:       $  97/MWh
        * Solar+Storage: $ 119/MWh
        * Diesel:        $ 212/MWh
    

So wind and solar are currently the cheapest, but you can only get to about
50% penetration with those without storage[2]. The rest has to be
"dispatchable".

[1]: [https://www.lazard.com/media/2390/lazards-levelized-cost-
of-...](https://www.lazard.com/media/2390/lazards-levelized-cost-of-energy-
analysis-90.pdf)

[2]:
[https://people.eecs.berkeley.edu/~vsmith/docs/renewables_sgc...](https://people.eecs.berkeley.edu/~vsmith/docs/renewables_sgc_2013.pdf)

~~~
barney54
One issue with these numbers that they are making and apples-to-oranges
comparison with non-dispatchable sources (wind and solar) and dispatchable
sources. There is value to being able to turn on and off a generation source
that isn't accounted for here.

~~~
JshWright
Sure, but it also doesn't account for the value in not releasing large amounts
of greenhouse gasses and other pollutants.

~~~
gregwtmtno
I would like to see a price for "Natural Gas + Carbon Capture"

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ZeroGravitas
Solar seems to be getting cheaper every year, and has been for decades now so
at what point does this headline become boring or redundant?

~~~
tim333
It's getting more interesting now because it's becoming competitive with other
sources.

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mrfusion
I'm confused why these are in units of energy kWh? Shouldn't the just be watts
a unit of power?

~~~
phaemon
I'm confused why you're confused. You pay for energy, not for power. You
wouldn't pay the same for a kW delivered for 1 hour as you would for a kW
delivered for a whole year, right?

~~~
jessaustin
When you buy solar panels, or build what TFA called " _a solar plant capable
of generating at least 350 megawatts_ " (note the units) you certainly are
paying for power. Quoting an energy price hides all sorts of assumptions about
finance, equipment longevity, and maintenance costs, so it's clear that doing
so is just an excuse to say "cheapest solar on record".

~~~
Someone
It's IAAS (infrastructure as a service (a term I just made up, but I think it
is appropriate))

Governments nowadays don't buy a solar plant, they put out a tender "we're
willing to buy X GWh of solar power a year for Y years. Solar panels can be
placed in area A, and must be removed afterwards. Please quote us a price per
kWh."

Advantage of that for the buyer is that, if they get a offer that is too good
to be true, they haven't paid the full sum when the seller goes bankrupt.

Also, because the seller has to operate and maintain what he sells, he will
think harder about maintenance costs, ease of removal, etc.

Another example of this is the recent auction for a sea-based wind farm in the
Netherlands ([http://www.offshorewind.biz/2016/07/06/borssele-12-worlds-
ch...](http://www.offshorewind.biz/2016/07/06/borssele-12-worlds-cheapest-
offshore-wind-farm/), 7.27 eurocents/kWh)

Risk for the buyer is that he commits to buy a fixed amount of power at a
fixed price over the lifetime of the plant. Worst-case for the buyer, we
develop cheap fusion next year, so that electricity prices drop to zero.

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ptaipale
How is this "cheapest solar"? There are many instances where solar electricity
price is negative.

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unchocked
This is a bulk power purchase agreement, not a spot price.

~~~
yessql
This is the correct answer.

