
Mexicans Afraid of Being in America Create Farm Worker Shortage – Crops Suffer - pgroverman
http://fortune.com/2017/08/08/immigration-worker-shortage-rotting-crops/
======
rgbrenner
Good. These are some of the worst paying jobs in the country.. because they
have used migrants to solve their labor problem, removing the need for them to
compete for workers.

They need to raise their wages, pay what it really costs for labor.

And as a bonus, the increased costs will provide an incentive for future
automation.

~~~
knz
I don't entirely disagree but I also suspect that many Americans would be
shocked by the cost of food if workers were paid higher wages (especially if
it was done for everyone who touches your food as it travels from the farm to
the table) and that most farmers would prefer a phased approach to reform so
that crops aren't rotting in the fields.

~~~
patrickg_zill
Last time I did this (estimating only the price on the actual farm labor
though), I figured out that paying cabbage or lettuce-pickers $20 per hour
would result in the farmer paying less than 5 cents more per head, on
something that retails in the grocery store for $2.50 or more.

Even if you multiply the cost by 5 to cover markup as it goes through the
chain (of distribution), you have... $2.50 going to $2.75, or ten percent more
at retail. Not shocking.

~~~
bardworx
How in the world did you get your numbers? Can I see some math please?

For full disclosure: I've worked about 15 years in hospitality industry and
have quite a few work acquaintances in supply chain, as well as chefs and
restauranteurs.

Most folks that are commenting here are living in la-la land with some of the
absolutely absurd math and opinion that do not tie into reality.

Lets get some baselines going before I unpack the horse shit being said here.

1\. Which agricultural concentration has the most migrant/day laborers?
Citrus[0] and other labor intensive crops (sugar cane, corn, cotton, etc.)
hire the majority of migrant labor. Majority (78%)[1] of seasonal agricultural
jobs are performed by folks who are not from the Unite States.

2\. What is the average profit margin, per acre, for agricultural farms (that
sells for human consumption)? It's shit [2] - like most freaking farms are
barely making it...Farms that have a GCFI (Gross Cash Farm Income) of
5,000,000+ should be doing well, however, about 25% of them are in the
critical zone of going out of business. Farms with a GCFI less then 500,000.
But hey, maybe that government agency has their head up their ass and don't
know shit. Lets take a look at studies by Purdue University and Department of
Agriculture and Consumer Economics University of Illinois[4]. To make life
easier, heres a summary: according to Purdue estimates, on average, farmland
has $114 to $227 return per acre. University of Illinois project returns from
$200 to $100 per acre.

3\. What is the general wage for Migrant Worker? From [5] this study on an
orange farm,workeers can expect $16.92/hr that operate machinery and $13.75/hr
for general purpose.

4\. What percent of overhead is labor? [5] Page 9. Labor accounts for 41% of
overhead for an orange farm. This is a industry standard for all labor
intensive agriculture production [6], which are listed as: fruits, vegetables,
and nursery products.

Great, now that we have some baselines. Lets dig into some math.

According to a previously mentioned study [5], an orange farm that has been
established for 10+ years can expect 550 packed cartons of oranges, that
weight 37.5 pounds. This represents 80% of the annual crop. The rest of the
crop is used for juices and fillers. That 20% accounts for an astronomic $0
return. In most cases, breaking even is considered a win.

Focusing on the 80% of the crop that does bring in money, what are the
economics? (this is taken from Ref Doc #5, page 22) It's shit! How shit? well,
if the average cost of a carton of oranges is $12 and you gather 700 cartons
per acre, your NET RETURN PER ACRO ABOVE TOTAL COST is -1,156...huh? Wait, you
just lost money...

How about if we take that number up a notch and sell our beautiful oranges at
$15/carton? Well, on 700 cartons gathered per acre you have now achieved
profitability of 944 per acre.

But how does this affect the consumer? Well, my curious conversant, a 5lb bag
of Navel Oranges is currently selling for $6.48 at Walmart[7]. For comparison,
a store in Illinois is selling 4lb bags of oranges for $3/per[8].

So a carton of oranges is being sold, at the highest range of the study [5] is
$15/carton. A carton is 37.5 pounds, which means I can get a bit more then 9
bags of 4lb orange bags, that I will sell for $3/per. Which means I will
generate a gross of $27/carton.

After reading this, please, do tell me again, how raising wages to $20/hr is
going to cause lettuce to go from 2.50 to 2.75?

[0] [https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-immigration-
farms/agr...](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-immigration-
farms/agriculture-dependent-on-migrant-workers-idUSN1526113420070723)

[1] [http://nfwm.org/education-center/farm-worker-issues/farm-
wor...](http://nfwm.org/education-center/farm-worker-issues/farm-workers-
immigration/)

[2] [https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-
waves/2015/januaryfebruary/pr...](https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-
waves/2015/januaryfebruary/profit-margin-increases-with-farm-size/)

[3] [http://agribusiness.purdue.edu/blog/understanding-the-
margin...](http://agribusiness.purdue.edu/blog/understanding-the-margin-
squeeze)

[4]
[http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/manage/2015_crop_budgets.pdf](http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/manage/2015_crop_budgets.pdf)

[5]
[https://coststudyfiles.ucdavis.edu/uploads/cs_public/19/d4/1...](https://coststudyfiles.ucdavis.edu/uploads/cs_public/19/d4/19d4f1bb-408a-443e-a759-36fd53a2948f/oranges_vs_2015.pdf)

[6] [https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-
labor/](https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-labor/)

[7] [https://www.walmart.com/ip/Navel-Oranges-5-lbs-
Bag/44391069](https://www.walmart.com/ip/Navel-Oranges-5-lbs-Bag/44391069)

[8] [http://waynesmarket.net/shop/247-4-lb-bag-navel-
oranges.html](http://waynesmarket.net/shop/247-4-lb-bag-navel-oranges.html)

~~~
patrickg_zill
I am going from memory here... and only considering the issue of picking the
lettuce and packaging it.

Variables: original cost of labor $8/hour, new cost $20/hour.

As well, trucking is a big industry and I haven't considered paying the
truckers more, either.

Look at this video:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxbJVqfIK1U](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxbJVqfIK1U)
and time the total handling time of 1 head of iceberg lettuce (the round head
kind).

Worst case scenario: each head is handled total for about 15 seconds, from
cutting or pulling it off its stalk on the ground, quickly removing loose
leaves, placing in bag, then sealing the bag and putting into boxes placed on
skids.

Thus we have (rounding up, allowing for breaks, turns etc.) 20 seconds per
head, 3 per minute, 180 per hour.

$8 / 180 = 4.4 cents of labor per head. $20 / 180 = 11.11

OK, I am off in what I remember ... about 7 extra cents per head of lettuce
vs. my remembered 5 cents.

------
OliverJones
For what it's worth, migrant harvest workers have always followed the harvest,
in North American moving from north to south in the fall as the frost line
moves southward with the season. "Migrant worker" often implies "foreign
national", but not necessarily.

It's an inconvenient truth of the scaled up agriculture that produces food for
us city folk.

Many European countries have formal guest-worker programs. A big consequence
of the EU is easier guest-worker access and better working conditions.

The reason the USA immigration hassle never gets solved by congresscritters is
this: it's convenient economically to have an underclass of workers with few
rights and no recourse for mistreatment. Congresscritters have to say they're
TRYING to solve the problem or they appear to be amoral. But they can't
actually solve the problem without antagonizing the 1% who pay their re-
election campaign bills. So the issue is a perennial theme of chin music. Both
major US parties do this.

~~~
philipodonnell
As painful as the current political environment is, some of these informal
patronage relationships may be upset by Trump's inability to be cool about
anything except his own industry (real estate). He'll happily throw the
farming industry under the bus if it means a tax break for real estate
investors and a few political points for being tough on "illegals".

~~~
thriftwy
Real estate is usually number two employer for illegals, if not number one.
Something doesn't add up.

------
trs80
Automation can fix this moving forward but ultimately the lost crops are a
result of a bad business decision by the farmers to rely on an an undocumented
underpaid labor force without thinking there would ever be any repercussions.

~~~
hprotagonist
[http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/05/us/farmers-strain-to-
hire-...](http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/05/us/farmers-strain-to-hire-
american-workers-in-place-of-migrant-labor.html)

[https://www.cbsnews.com/news/despite-economy-americans-
dont-...](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/despite-economy-americans-dont-want-
farm-work/)

Most americans are unwilling to work on farms, even at the heights of the
recent recession.

~~~
rgbrenner
Because they pay near minimum wage for dangerous, temporary, hard work.

No sane person with any other options would take that trade

~~~
stickfigure
...which should make you think long and hard about what people are being
forced back into now that this avenue of work is cut off.

~~~
mieseratte
So let's hurt our own citizens for the benefit of other nationalities who are
willing to demonstrate their disrespect for our laws, for the benefit of
greedy business owners?

------
louprado
In two recent conversations I was told that the coyete[1] rates are $10,000
from El Salvador and $8,000 from Mexico. The Mexican fellow told me he
wouldn't return to the US not only because the rates were high too but the
smugglers now seem more menacing. The fellow used to perform home construction
in the Bay Area. Incidentally, a recent report in the area cited labor
shortages as the #2 road block in the SF builder industry.

The US administration seems to believe that our economic growth was cash
constrained, hence the massive corporate tax cut. But for many industries
growth is labor constrained.

[1] Colloquial phrase for Central American human traffickers.

~~~
philipodonnell
> The US administration seems to believe that our economic growth was cash
> constrained

I'm not going to point fingers at anyone, but corporate cash levels were
already hitting records before the tax cuts passed and money was already
available at record-low interest rates. Anyone who thought our companies were
cash-constrained was intentionally not paying attention.

------
bob_theslob646
Reminds of what happened in Alabama. Vice did a documentary on it. It was
definitely eye opening. The only thing that scares me for this type of labor
is the sheer amount of automation being done in farming.( They have these
crazy lettuce cutting machines as well as sorting machines.)

>Alabama’s Failed Anti-Immigration Law The state's experiment in "self-
deportation" reveals what might happen if the US sent 11 million undocumented
workers home.

[[https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/8gk7nx/what-alabamas-
fail...](https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/8gk7nx/what-alabamas-failed-anti-
immigration-law-can-teach-us-about-donald-trump)]

~~~
trs80
The southern agricultural economy suffered greatly after slavery ended. I
think America will adjust to this some how, without starving.

~~~
jayd16
What kind of argument is this? Any policy that doesn't _completely_ destroy
America is good policy?

~~~
trs80
They're not slaves proper so it wouldn't be nearly as destructive. More like a
healthy correction in the market.

~~~
logfromblammo
Lettuce be honest. The end of slavery in the South was immediately replaced by
slavery-like exploitation of second-class workers without enforceable rights.
When a massive nationwide movement for equal civil rights finally made that
non-viable a hundred years later, the farmers just did a global search-and-
replace in their business plans from "black" to "foreign" and continued as
usual.

Having _zero_ abusable second-class workers would be _more_ destructive. 150
years of dragging ass on modernizing their farming operations will come back
and bite them all at once. But they probably won't learn their lesson and just
use robots. They will beg and squeal for prisoner labor first. And then the
cops will be ginning up bogus traffic offenses right before harvest time, so
the people who can't pay the fines will have to pick vegetables instead.

------
chrisbennet
If you’re wondering what would happen if farm worker wages were raised, this
article in The NY Times from 2011 might shed some light:

 _”For a typical household, a 40 percent increase in farm labor costs
translates into a 3.6 percent increase in retail prices. If farm wages rose 40
percent, and this wage increase were passed on to consumers, average spending
on fresh fruits and vegetables would rise about $15 a year, the cost of two
movie tickets. However, for a typical seasonal farm worker, a 40 percent wage
increase could raise earnings from $10,000 for 1,000 hours of work to $14,000
— lifting the wage above the federal poverty line.”_

[https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2011/08/17/could-
farms...](https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2011/08/17/could-farms-
survive-without-illegal-labor/the-costs-and-benefits-of-a-raise-for-field-
workers)

------
patrickg_zill
Honest question: how do German (for example) farms manage to work, since there
are virtually no Mexicans in Germany?

~~~
OliverJones
EU. People from Turkey, Greece, and other less-industrialized parts of the EU
work as migrant harvest workers (and in other laborer jobs) in the more
industrialzied parts. The northern EU countries have organized guest-worker
programs.

~~~
patrickg_zill
Is it the situation that the workers show up, do their work, are treated
somewhat fairly, and then depart for their home country again?

------
sremani
America produces twice than it consumes. Will the farms suffer perhaps, will
Americans starve? no. Should the farms adapt, Yes!

Hey I am not going to feel bad, that McDonald does not have a Dollar Menu any
more. May be the market forces are the right medicine for the "obesity"
problems America is facing.

------
ikeyany
Would there be a shortage if these jobs paid $20/hr with more comfortable work
conditions?

~~~
enervate
Probably. NPR ran a story on the radio a few years ago about immigrant workers
in geogia and how it was difficult to find people for this.

Heres a link: [https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-
way/2011/05/27/136718112...](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-
way/2011/05/27/136718112/georgia-farmers-say-immigration-law-keeps-workers-
away)

~~~
frgtpsswrdlame
Hmm, well let's analyze it. So from your link in 2011:

 _In Kathy Lohr 's report, she spoke to R.T. Stanley Jr., a farmer who says he
can't hire locals to do the job:

Stanley says experienced workers can earn as much as $200 a day. He says he's
tried to hire locals to do the job — working in the fields eight hours or more
clipping, bending and lifting in the oppressive Georgia heat.

"They just don't want to do this hard work. And they'll tell you right quick,"
he says. "I have 'em to come out and work for two hours and they said, 'I'm
not doing this. It's too hard.' "

For Stanley, finding workers is already tough enough and he says the new
restrictions are likely to make it worse.

"I got my livelihood on the line," he says. "If I don't harvest these onions,
I'll lose my farm."_

So first of all let's be honest about that $200 a day figure, they're being
paid by how much they harvest. $200 a day is basically never going to happen,
it's a dream figure, no onion farmer in america is paying $200/day to pick
onions.

In fact at Stanley's Farm you're going to be making a whole lot less than
that, from 2013:

 _The plaintiffs say Stanley Farms paid them less than minimum wage over the
last three years and illegally cut their wages. The plaintiffs said they also
worked alongside pickers who had work permits and who were paid more money
than what American workers received

“We see this repeatedly,” said plaintiff’s attorney Dawson Morton. “Farms
complain that no local workers are available. But when they do hire local
workers, they don’t pay them fairly and don’t offer them the same pay as their
foreign workers. It’s illegal and discourages American workers from continuing
in agriculture.”

The suit claims the workers were paid 40 cents for each 5-gallon bucket of
onions picked, while foreign workers received more than $9 a hour. Workers
also had to purchase work tools from the company, the suit says._

[http://www.ajc.com/business/vidalia-onion-workers-sue-
georgi...](http://www.ajc.com/business/vidalia-onion-workers-sue-georgia-
farm/AH44Vv8LBXpO5hQ230x6nI/)

$0.40 for a 5-gallon bucket, so to get to that $200 figure you only need to
pick... 2,500 lbs of onions! Every day! Easy!

And then later in 2014:

 _A judge on Monday approved the agreement. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
states that Stanley Farms agreed to pay $92,500, with $82,500 going to back
wages and damages and $10,000 going to attorney’s fees and costs. The company
also agreed to follow specific hiring and employment practices that were
outlined in the agreement.

“We’re pleased with the resolution reached, and we’re pleased that the farm is
agreeing to pay U.S. and foreign workers the same amount, which we don’t
believe they were doing,” said Dawson Morton, a lawyer for the workers. “That
should reduce the exclusion of U.S. workers from Vidalia onion work and we
hope assure equal treatment and equal pay.”

The American workers and their former co-workers filed a lawsuit last year
that claimed that American farmworkers were paid less than the minimum wage of
$7.25 an hour while foreign guest workers were paid between $9.11 and $9.38 an
hour._

[https://www.andnowuknow.com/shop-talk/stanley-farms-pay-
over...](https://www.andnowuknow.com/shop-talk/stanley-farms-pay-
over-90000-dollar-settlement-farmworkers/christofer-oberst/41981)

That same articles states that they now follow certain guidelines like making
sure there are enough seats for workers on transportation, that the
transportation is properly inspected and insured, that workers can't go into
fields until at least 24 hours after application of certain chemicals and that
they'll provide tools.

So what kind of farm was Stanley actually running when that article was
written? Well it's obvious he was paying less than minimum wage to americans
and more to illegal immigrants so that he could have an all immigrant
workforce so that he could skimp on labor protections. And after doing this
for years and years he settles for less than $100,000. This is the problem
with american farming. If Mr. Staley had ever actually tried paying americans
$200/day and had provided a safe work environment I'm sure workers would have
been lined up. It's a pervasive __lie __that americans won 't do farm work for
good wages.

------
hugh4life
I personally do not care. Selecting migrants based of their value for the
agriculture industry is about the worst thing a nation can do itself. Let's
hope that constraints breed creativity and industry invests in automation. I
think the government should do more to support farmer automation... especially
when it's been proven to be effective like for dairy.

(I come from a family of farmers... going up my family tree there are been
nothing but farmers)

------
coldtea
Shortage? That's not how demand and supply works.

Since the job doesn't require any specialization (which could take years to
master and thus might cause a shortage), it should be easy to fill such
positions from the large unemployment pool if employers started paying more to
compensate for the missing Mexicans.

But it's only a shortage of people willing to do the work at shitty prices.

------
ccozan
Almost the same thing happened in UK after Brexit. The atmosphere was so
poisonous against them, that the EE workers did not return in the normal
amount, so that all farms that rely on them for cheap picking are suffering.

------
quantumofmalice
If only there were some sort of market mechanism that would incentivize legal
US citizens to perform these jobs, in order to spare these suffering crops.

------
DanBC
We're seeing the same thing in England, with seasonal farm workers not coming
over.

~~~
dazc
I think the problem in the UK is that this kind of work has become monopolised
by gang-masters who have an interest in recruiting workers from the poorest
areas of the EU.

I'm not so sure there is any great shortage of willing workers at the moment
but it may be a problem in the future once free-movement comes to an end?

As has been mentioned about the US above, there is this myth, propagated by
the media, that natives aren't interested, are too lazy and so on...

Truth is that farmers have gotten away with exploiting cheap labour and they
don't want it to end. You try getting a job today, as a UK native, picking
vegetables and you'll likely face a brick wall.

We didn't have any problems before when people could do casual seasonal work
for a fair days pay. When the source of cheap labour dries up we'll likely go
back to not having problems. Just a few fat farmers will be slightly miffed
about it.

~~~
meheleventyone
There’s numerous articles about the food being left to rot, for example from a
couple of days ago: [http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-crops-
eu-f...](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-crops-eu-farm-
workers-brexit-referendum-rot-manpower-recruitment-numbers-a8194701.html)

So it seems very much to be an issue pre-Brexit.

~~~
dazc
Well, it cites one 'farmer' and a poll from the National Farmer's Union.

------
coolso
Why are they afraid of being in America?

------
coliveira
Crops are not capable of suffering. Another publication that spreads the idea
that inanimate things can suffer, while the true suffering is experienced by
workers.

~~~
tsomctl
Suffer, intransitive verb, definition 2: to sustain loss or damage.

([https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/suffer](https://www.merriam-
webster.com/dictionary/suffer))

~~~
coliveira
This only shows that the practice is widespread, not that I should go around
saying that things suffer, when in fact they cannot do that. This is
especially insensitive in a context when there is real human suffering.

