
5% of Google's traffic is now IPv6 - AndrewDucker
http://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html#5percent
======
Strom
See previous discussion on this
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8680652](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8680652)

------
sargun
I wonder if this will lead to Docker finally acknowledging IPv6:

°
[https://github.com/docker/docker/issues/2174](https://github.com/docker/docker/issues/2174)

°
[https://github.com/docker/docker/pull/8947](https://github.com/docker/docker/pull/8947)

°
[https://github.com/docker/docker/issues/3609](https://github.com/docker/docker/issues/3609)

etc...

[https://github.com/docker/docker/search?q=ipv6&type=Issues&u...](https://github.com/docker/docker/search?q=ipv6&type=Issues&utf8=%E2%9C%93)

------
AndrewDucker
Worth noting that the traffic is more than doubling every 12 months.

2.5% in December 2013

1% in December 2012

0.4% in December 2011

0.2% in December 2010

If that carries on then it's 10% in 2015, 20% in 2016, and 40% in 2017, with
everyone switched over somewhere in 2018/19.

~~~
richmarr
80% in 2018

160% in 2019

Apologies for being flippant. Just making the point that you're extrapolating
without spending time on the likely shape of that adoption.

It seems more likely that this is an S-curve, and that we'll continue to see
IPv4 traffic for the next decade, maybe longer.

~~~
AndrewDucker
I think it pretty likely that once we reach 50% it will switch from "That
thing that techies care about" to "Something people assume everyone has", and
that any remaining ISPs that don't provide IPv6 will rush to get it done.

I'm sure that IPv4 support will continue for a fair while though.

~~~
richmarr
What's the mechanism that makes that first company drop support for IPv4?
Cost?

It feels like it'd need to be a dramatic cost saving in order to kick in at
50% adoption.

~~~
AndrewDucker
See the graph here:
[http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html](http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html)

ARIN is going to run entirely out of IPv4 addresses for general distribution
in April of 2015.

It's not going to be long before you'll need IPv6 if you want to do anything
peer-to-peer.

~~~
ufmace
I thought that was like the Voyager leaving the solar system story that keeps
repeating every few years but never seems to actually happen.

Only meant partly in jest. When they start to get really rare, the price of
IPv4 blocks will keep going up, until some institutional holders of large
blocks start selling. It could take quite a long time before it's really gone
for good.

~~~
gsnedders
Because while it might be a lot of effort for the large institutional holders
when they've historically allocated stuff assuming they have the whole huge
block, eventually the price-cost trade-off will reach a point where the
address space is valuable enough.

------
skywhopper
Two comments about the presentation itself:

1\. The color selections on the "Per-country IPv6 Adoption" tab are abysmal
for those of us with poor color perception.

2\. Since we're talking about replacing outdated technology, why use a Flash-
based graph on the "IPv6 Adoption" tab?

~~~
dhm
The graphic in the "Per-Country IPv6 adoption" tab appears to be implemented
with scalable vector graphics.

------
thomasfoster96
The one thing I gather from that graph is that over weekends, IPv6 use spikes.
I assume that this means that networks or devices at companies and schools are
lagging behind at using IPv6?

~~~
matthewarkin
Yea, there could be a number of reasons for this. Companies may not see a need
to upgrade to IPv6 just yet, all their internal machines have nat-ed addresses
and they have enough public ip addresses. They use some legacy software /
hardware X that doesn't support IPv6 (hey, some companies are still paying
Microsoft to support XP).

~~~
skrause
Or when I look at the company I work for it's just that nobody bothers because
not having IPv6 hasn't caused a single problem so far.

~~~
atomt
At work (a larger enterprise in Europe) we already see quite a bit of pain
with IPv4. B2B connections are increasingly not using globally unique
addressing anymore, so we often need to use prefix NAT and application level
proxies to bridge clashing address space. This in turn is a support nightmare
and is hurting reliability.

Our network guys seems to love the extra complexity, though.

~~~
Someone1234
I hate VPN-ing into other people's networks, it is such a pain-point. As you
say, you have address/space clashes, and all kinds of other (sometimes even
security) problems.

It sounds easier than it is, the main issue is scaling. Need to connect to one
other person for B2B? Trivial. Two? A little harder. Ten, twenty, fifty,
ouch...

------
tazjin
In the meantime Google Compute Engine does not support IPv6.

~~~
theandrewbailey
Many residential ISPs don't. I'm stuck on Verizon to enable IPv6 on FIOS.

~~~
2bluesc
Comcast in San Francisco supports native IPv6 on residential accounts. Even
did it (almost) right and include a /60 prefix delegation.

~~~
theandrewbailey
For all the complaints against Comcast's network, they are really on it with
IPv6.

~~~
organsnyder
Agreed. Comcast has terrible management, and unreliable (usually bad) customer
support, but I've found that their network operations are very good (when
they're not applying corporate anticompetitive policies); a couple of their
top IPv6 people hang out on the Comcast forum on dslreports.com, and they
really seem to care a lot about proper network management.

~~~
2bluesc
I've seen this as well! Amazing what happens when people care.

------
NKCSS
Cool to see Belgium at almost 30%... we can learn something from our
neighbours (only 2.5% here in .nl)

------
smcl
Has anyone got any idea what the (relatively) big spike on October 4th 2014
was? A quick google revealed it's not some "World IPV6 day" or something
(though there was something like that on 2011 which had a next-to-zero
impact).

Was there maybe a new phone or console (or an OS update released to either)
released?

~~~
Caketh
I would hazard a guess that that was when global routing table hit 512K routes
and crashed a few hundred ISP routers worldwide? That might have been earlier
in the year though.

------
mtrimpe
I hope everyone is aware that IPv6 is the perfect way to bypass rate-limiting
for systems that analyse Google results (for SEO ea.)

There's a good chance a lot of this traffic consists of those bots testing
Google's results ....

~~~
skrause
Rate-limiting is still easy with IPv6, you just limit whole subnets (e.g. a
/64) instead of single IP addresses. I guess Google has figured that out as
well.

I actually do believe that this is real traffic. Here in Germany the number of
connections with native IPv6 is rising constantly. At home all my devices are
always using IPv6 when connecting to Google services because I also have
native IPv6. Those 12.26% for Germany look pretty believable.

~~~
DieBuche
In Germany anyone on the telekom network who has a new contract or changed an
exisiting contract in the last 16 months or so has IPv6.

~~~
padelt
Also everyone on Unitymedia. Dual stack if you're a lucky older customer, DS
lite (CPE has routable IPv6 and NATed IPv4) if you are new or get something
changed.

------
zacwest
My ISP here in SF, Webpass, has begun deploying their customers behind an IPv4
NAT with an IPv6 /64 prefix. I think this trend is going to be more common
with consumer ISPs. I mind a little bit, since VPN access is impossible on
IPv4, but with mobile carriers deploying IPv6 I think I will care less as time
goes on.

It is noticeably faster to use IPv6 with Google, something like 4ms vs. 30ms
connection times. I'm not sure if it's a more efficient route, or
underutilized routers handling the traffic.

------
jleahy
Although they're still using Adobe Flash Player for the graph.

------
kibwen
Can anyone explain what "latency / impact" means on the per-country graph? I
can't quite make sense of it:

United Kingdom: 0ms latency, 0.02% impact

Romania: -10ms latency, 0.01% impact

Bulgaria: 10ms latency, 0.03% impact

Japan: 20ms latency, 0.03% impact

All that I can divine so far is that 20ms appears to be the threshold at which
your country will receive a red tint regardless of your adoption percentage.

~~~
icebraining
I believe the latency is the difference vis-a-vis IPv4.

------
IvyMike
This seems like a good place to ask--I'm on Time Warner. I have an ipv6
address, and can get to ipv6.google.com, so it seems like everything is in
place. But all my web browsing (chrome or ff, Windows 7) defaults to use ipv4
everywhere.

Is there something I need to change on my end? I've got pretty vanilla
settings. Thanks!

~~~
organsnyder
There are a few potential factors in play:

1\. What kind of IPv6 connectivity do you have? If it's not a native
deployment, it could be 6rd or 6to4. I believe that some applications/OSes
will prefer IPv4 over non-native IPv6 when they have the choice, since the
latter will be running through a proxy (and therefore will probably be
slower).

2\. It could be an OS setting. I think that most recent OSes will prefer IPv6
by default, but I could be mistaken.

3\. Application settings could also be in play.

I installed a Chrome extension named "IPvFoo" that adds an indicator in the
address bar to tell me whether I'm connecting over IPv4 or IPv6. When I'm at
home (Comcast residential, native dual-stack), it shows me connecting over
IPv6 a lot of the time, especially when I'm connected to larger sites; in
fact, the majority of sites connect over IPv6 at least partially, since many
popular services (Google Analytics, Google Fonts, some common CDNs for
Javascript libraries) are available over v6.

Perhaps this will help you figure out what's going on: [http://test-
ipv6.comcast.net/](http://test-ipv6.comcast.net/)

~~~
IvyMike
I spent some time checking into things, and here's what appears to be
happening:

1\. I do get an IPv6 address from Time-Warner... and it appears to be legit.
(It's not the link-local address; it starts with 2605:e000, which is in the
Time-Warner block)

2\. But... it appears to be non-routable from the general internet. I think
this is Time-Warner's fault. But maybe it's my router. I am not sure.
Traceroute from
[http://4or6.com/traceroute?l=en](http://4or6.com/traceroute?l=en) gives me
this. (I attempted to obfuscate my real address with XXXX)

    
    
        #traceroute 2605:e000:xxxx
        traceroute to 2605:e000:xxxx (2605:e000:xxxx), 30 hops max, 80 byte packets
         1  2607:f2f8:1600::1 (2607:f2f8:1600::1)  1.653 ms  1.597 ms  1.583 ms  
         2  2001:504:13::1a (2001:504:13::1a)  11.753 ms  11.746 ms  11.732 ms
         3  twcable-backbone-as7843.10gigabitethernet17.switch2.lax2.he.net (2001:470:0:2bf::2)  2.618 ms  2.610 ms  2.599 ms
         4  2001:1998:0:4::11d (2001:1998:0:4::11d)  3.956 ms 2001:1998:0:4::11b (2001:1998:0:4::11b)  3.477 ms 2001:1998:0:4::11d (2001:1998:0:4::11d)  5.512 ms
         5  2001:1998:0:8::83 (2001:1998:0:8::83)  4.090 ms  5.784 ms 2001:1998:0:8::87 (2001:1998:0:8::87)  6.542 ms
         6  2605:e000:0:4::41 (2605:e000:0:4::41)  6.753 ms  5.032 ms  5.011 ms
         7  2605:e000:0:4::5:7f (2605:e000:0:4::5:7f)  6.859 ms  7.042 ms  7.128 ms
         8  * * *
    

3\. Since a recent firmware upgrade, my router detects this problem, and
sometimes (but not always) decides to set up a 6to4 tunnel. I am not sure how
this works, exactly.

4a. If the router does set up the 6to4 tunnel, I do have IPv6, but as
organsnyder says, since 6to4 tunnels suck, the OS prefers to use ipv4.

4b. If the router does not set up the 6to4 tunnel, I have a completely non-
functional IPv6.

Oh well, maybe next year.

------
dzhiurgis
Are there any VPS providers in UK that support IPv6?

The idea would be to set up personal VPN that would exit thru IPv6 and/or get
anonymomized on a public IPV4 NAT. Would that make sense?

~~~
organsnyder
Why go through all the trouble? Just get a free tunnel from Hurricane Electric
([https://tunnelbroker.net/](https://tunnelbroker.net/)). Their site mentions
that they have servers in London.

If anonymity is your goal, then a VPS probably wouldn't be much help—you'd be
traced right back to your VPS provider, so you'd still be hoping that they
wouldn't divulge your information. Since a VPS is normally on a static IP,
it'd be slightly worse than a typical dynamic IP from a residential ISP.

------
X-Istence
This is only going to grow as ISP's start running out of IPv4 space and deploy
IPv6 with IPv4 over CGN or some other solution!

------
liveoneggs
I think the US is mostly mobile

~~~
zaphoyd
Comcast and Time Warner Cable both have larged wired IPv6 footprints (28% and
12% of their quite sizable customer bases respectively), as do a number of
universities.

~~~
atomt
And AT&T with their huge 6rd deployment for DSL.

------
guyht
29% in Belgium, any idea why they are so far ahead of everyone else?

------
pwr22
UK is still abysmal :(

