
If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself? - daragao
So there has been some noise around if there is a tech bubble or not. I am not arguing if there is one or not, nor interested in that discussion anymore.<p>If there  is a tech bubble, how can I protect myself? That is the question. 
 I am developer who has worked mostly in small businesses and startups, with a master in computer engineering. I am not the best developer there is, but not a terrible one either.
 Should I move to a larger company? Start my own company away from investment? Just save money and hope for the best?<p>Thanks!
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mooreds
Save money. 6 months expenses is a good rule of thumb.

Network (which really means just keep in touch with folks you have worked with
or met).

At your current employment situation, keep your ear to the ground. You don't
need to move to a big company (they have layoffs too) but you want to be aware
of what is happening.

Ask your boss questions about the business, and do your own research too. If
your company is "default dead" then ask how you can help make it "default
alive".

Cut your unneeded expenses.

Start a company if you have the drive to so, don't worry about the
macroeconomic climate.

Source: reading, living through the 2000 and 2008 recessions as a developer.

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daragao
Surviving through the 2000 one must have been a hard one, although it picked
up fast ;) What were the signs? What could you see at the time that made sense
to you that was something wrong? Or at the time you never felt anything was
wrong, business was just really good. After the disaster happens everyone has
good theories about the causes, but before no one really remembers to look to
obvious signs which transcend how the economics are going, like why there is
so much people getting so much money although their knowledge doesn't support
their business. How can a tech business be built by someone that is non tech
(or even averse to it), to make a business do you only need a good talk and
gut, or do you actually need to know about the business.

~~~
mooreds
Ha, hindsight is 20/20, as they say. I guess I would say that the voracious
hiring, the dependency on other startups for revenue, the grand plans(an
office in Londow and one in Singapore!), the hiring of high level executives
that didn't seem to add value, the grand renovation (we had a custom built
climbing wall in our building... was just got show), and later, the
hamhandedness of the layoffs were all signs.

Of course it was a different world back then because the hardware and software
were a much larger portion of spend for internet companies. Signs may be
different now.

That said, "History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme."

[https://en.m.wikiquote.org/wiki/Talk:History](https://en.m.wikiquote.org/wiki/Talk:History)

~~~
daragao
Exactly... I'm looking for the rhymes! :D

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gregatragenet3
Make yourself a rainy day fund, 6-12 months of living expenses. Make
sacrafices to make that happen. This puts you in a position of power when you
do have to look for a new job, you don't have to be desperate to take the
first crappy low-paying thing that comes along.

Never consider equity 'compensation' at non-public companies. If the job
didn't include the equity would you accept? If not, pass or negotiate more
cash. In good times, only one out of 10 of those stock option agreements will
be anything more than birdcage liners.

And, as a developer, there are parts of the codebase that are unglamorous but
crutial to the company. Adopt those parts that others don't want to work on.
Be the go-to (crutial) guy for those parts of the code. When the time comes
for cuts you'll be indispensable.

Source: went traveling the world on my rainy day fund in the 2000 crash.

~~~
daragao
traveling during the bad times seems like the perfect plan

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Avalaxy
Probably by getting out of the silicon valley bubble. Work for 'normal'
companies that are actually trying to make the world better instead of
building the millionth useless social media platform. Choose companies that
aren't overvalued 100 times their actual worth (so don't work for Uber,
Snapchat or any of those companies with valuations in the higher Billions
range, without actually making any substantial profit).

~~~
fratlas
Well, Uber in particular has a _huge_ profit. But other than that, I agree.

~~~
tariqali34
Uber has huge _revenue_. They have failed to generate a single cent of profit
though.

~~~
fratlas
Ah, yes, sorry. Still, nearly $2B revenue and funneling most of it into trying
to break into the Chinese market; I don't think they're doing badly at all.

~~~
kasey_junk
One of the things about the last bubble was that revenue without profits did
not save anybody. That's not to say Uber will do poorly if there is some sort
of bubble pop, but profits and revenue are not at all the same thing, and
bubbles bursting have a habit of reminding us of that.

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davismwfl
Saving money is never a bad thing and is solid advice. But honestly I think it
is a little basic for what you are asking.

Having lived through the dot come bust and other economic failures I have
found that making sure you stay valuable and relevant are the most important
factors. Someone pointed out making sure you are valuable to your current
employer by taking on the parts of code that everyone dreads. That is good, so
is just making sure you are a team player and are pulling your weight and
pitching in wherever you can to make sure things stay on track. In the past, I
jumped on a support desk, or stayed late to stuff mailings with sales staff
etc. When people see you are willing to help make the team successful even
outside your defined role and that you are showing loyalty most good people
will return the favor. BTW -- all the things I did when times were less then
ideal was what made being an entrepreneur easier, because sometimes you just
have to suck it up and clean the bathroom before a client visit, or after
depending on the situation.

If you have interest in starting your own thing, there is nothing wrong with
doing so. Minimize current expenses, pay off as much of your debt possible
while you are a FTE and save some cash up. While you are still working start
your side business and take some time to get it right. Starting a business in
a downturn is many times quite successful because many businesses look to
outsource projects, minimize new head count etc.

One last point, many times enterprises use downturns in the startup sector to
snap up talent that they have been squeezed out of getting. So usually
enterprise hiring remains pretty robust for the first 12-18 months that I have
seen. And this time around if there is a bubble in the startup side,
enterprises are sitting on some of the largest cash reserves that I can
remember seeing, so who knows how that will work out.

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JSeymourATL
> If there is a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

Get some solid sales & business development experience. Can you figure out new
ways to generate revenue, win new clients?

Someone with a solid tech background and true sales ability can create his own
deal anywhere. Incidentally, some of the most compelling salesman in this
industry were one-time engineers.

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jjoe
It's almost always too late to protect yourself when the bubble has popped. So
prepare for the next pop. The only way to protect yourself is to build your
own business. But not just any kind of business; a business that can absorb
the chocks of cyclical troughs in an economy.

What do people always need?

* Drinking water

* Food

* Health

* Shelter

Pick one or two.

~~~
saddestcatever
We're talking about a tech bubble here, not the apocalypse!

~~~
jjoe
The listing is not what one should stock up on in their underground bunker.
But rather things you can build a business around so you're OK no matter what
the economy's doing.

~~~
bbcbasic
Foreclosures, debt collection, company administration, auctions ...

