

How mathematics can make epidemics history - RV86
http://aeon.co/magazine/health/how-mathematics-can-make-epidemics-history

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kaptainkayak
An exceedingly simple model, the Galton-Watson process, was introduced in 1875
and exhibits the behaviour of the 'reproduction number'. If the average number
of offspring in a Galton-Watson process is less than 1, the population dies
off with probability 1, with thin tails on the number of generations before
extinction; if it's more than 1, it has a positive chance to survive forever.

