

"Strong Opinions, Weakly Held" - skmurphy
http://www.saffo.com/journal/entry.php?id=898

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skmurphy
Key quotes:

"The point of forecasting is not to attempt illusory certainty, but to
identify the full range of possible outcomes."

"I will force myself to make a tentative forecast based on the information
available, and then systematically tear it apart, using the insights gained to
guide my search for further indicators and information. Iterate the process a
few times, and it is surprising how quickly one can get to a useful forecast.
Since the mid-1980s, my mantra for this process is 'strong opinions, weakly
held.'"

"It sensitizes one to the weak signals of changes coming over the horizon and
keeps the hapless forecaster from becoming so attached to their model that
reality intrudes too late to make a difference."

