
The Real Story of 2016 - fmihaila
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/
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kem
Too much attention has been placed on polling predictors.

It wasn't just polling that was off, it was other predictors as well.

PollyVote, for examples, aggregates over many different types of predictors,
and non-polling predictors still predicted a Clinton win.

So whatever you'd have to use to explain how the polls were off would also
have to account for why economic predictors were off, index models...

If this were an undeveloped country, my first thought would have been election
tampering.

However, people also seem to be forgetting that at some level, the polls were
correct: Clinton did win the popular vote. The polls were just off about where
the votes were won. Important, but a harder aim, prediction-wise.

