
Climate change is drying up the Colorado River - lisper
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/climate-change-is-drying-up-the-colorado-river/
======
m0zg
Would be lovely if someone put together betting markets for these events so
people could put some real, actual skin in the game. Would be even lovelier if
the authors of papers had to disclose their own bets (if any) in the papers,
similarly to how they disclose the funding sources today. That would be a good
signal as to the level of confidence they have in their predictions. 2065 is
not that far out, and the water levels won't drop all at once, so it should be
possible to set up shorter term bets.

Climate events, if anything, should be far more predictable than the stock
markets, while still retaining substantial randomness and uncertainty for the
betting market to be possible.

~~~
ceejayoz
USGS researchers aren't exactly wallowing in cash.

If you want to see meaningful bets, look to the Pentagon and insurance
industries. They seem to have made a decision on climate change.

[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-18/in-
dire-r...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-18/in-dire-report-
pentagon-warns-bases-imperiled-by-climate-change)

[https://www.wsj.com/graphics/climate-change-forcing-
insuranc...](https://www.wsj.com/graphics/climate-change-forcing-insurance-
industry-recalculate/)

~~~
m0zg
That's OK, I'd monitor JP Morgan's bets now that they are onboard. I just want
there to be real, direct cost (positive or negative) be attached to the
probability that the prediction is accurate. That would be vastly preferable
to the current situation where there's no downside for the researcher for
predicting incorrectly, and no upside to predicting correctly.

In fact, given the purported seriousness of the situation, this should be
structured such that "USGS researchers" who are correct most of the time would
be "wallowing in cash", and those who are not would be ejected from the field.

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reustle
How much is from climate change and how much from agriculture and cities
sucking it dry? These guys did a documentary of their journey down the entire
length of the river to see where the water was going.

[https://vimeo.com/60269562](https://vimeo.com/60269562)

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egberts1
Climate Emergencies 1966 - Oil gone in 10 years 1967 - Dire famine forecast by
1975 1968 - Overpopulation will spread worldwide 1969 - Everyone will
disappear in a Cloud of Blue Steam in 1989 1970 - World will use up its
natural resources by 2000 1970 - Urban citizens will require gas mask by 1985
1970 - Nitrogen buildup will make all lands unusable 1970 - Decaying pollution
will kill all the fish 1970s - Killer Bees!!! 1970 - Ice Age by 2000 1970 -
Americans will be subjected to water rationing by 1975 and food rationing by
1980 1971 - New Ice Age coming by 2020 or 2030 1972 - New Ice Age by 2070 1972
- Oil depleted in 20 years 1974 - Space satellites show New Ice Age coming
fast 1974 - Another Ice Age? 1974 - Ozone depletion a great peril to life 1976
- Scientific consensus planet cooling; famines imminent 1977 - Department of
Energy says oil will peak in 90s. 1978 - No end in sight to 30-year global
cooling 1980 - Acid rain kills life in lakes 1980 - Peak oil in 2000 1988 -
Regional drought (that never happened) in 90s. 1988 - Temperatures in DC will
hit record high (no records broken) 1988 - Maldive Islands will be underwater
by 2018 (nope) 1989 - Rising sea level will obliterate nations if nothing done
by 2000. 1989 - New York City Westside Highway underwater by 2018. 1996 - Peak
oil in 2020 2000 - Children won’t know what snow is 2002 - Famines if we don’t
give up eating fishes, meat, and diary 2002 - Peak oil in 2010 2004 - Britain
will be Siberia by 2024 2005 - Manhattan underwater by 2015 2006 - Super
Hurricanes!!! 2008 - Arctic will be ice-free by 2018 2008 - Climate genius Al
Gore predict ice-free Arctic by 2013 2009 - Climate genius Prince Charles says
we have 96 months to save the world 2009 UK Prime Ministers says 50 days to
“save planet from catastrophe” 2009 Al Gore moves ice-free Arctic prediction
from 2013 to 2014 2013 Arctic ice-free by 2015 2014 Only 500 days before
climate chaos 2019 - Hey Greta, we really need you to convince them this time.
2020 - Australian bush fires are caused by climate change. It’s just a ploy
for government to add more taxes.

~~~
peterashford
[https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/12/even-50-year-old-
cli...](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/12/even-50-year-old-climate-
models-correctly-predicted-global-warming)

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briandear
How long ago did this start?

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qrbLPHiKpiux
> Less snow means more evaporation in a critical water resource

What?

Evaporation is constant.

This is a play on words to sway readers. Stop this.

~~~
NoSorryCannot
Evaporation is definitely not constant, at all, not remotely. More heat means
more evaporation, and less snow means more heat and therefore a shorter
journey (on average) back to the gas phase. Aside from climate, it's the
principle that underlies mundane things like hair dryers, clothes dryers, and
sauce reductions.

