
Elon Musk offers to help get the grounded Boeing 787 Dreamliner back in the air - Reltair
http://thenextweb.com/shareables/2013/01/18/elon-musk-offers-boeing-tesla-and-spacexs-help-over-boeing-787-dreamliner-battery-issues/
======
alex_c
A Twitter message is a publicity stunt, not a sincere offer for help. I'm sure
Elon knows the right people to contact at Boeing directly if he really wants
to work something out.

~~~
hyperbovine
Aside from which, it would be a cold day in hell before Boeing took him up on
this. A highly publicized left turn to an outside team, to re-do portions of a
decades-long, $32 billion R&D program, which has already entered passenger
service and is supposed to be completely safe? I can't even begin to fathom
the PR shitstorm that would result from that.

~~~
pkulak
Really? You have a problem with LiIon batteries and you get help from the best
electric car company in the world? It's called consulting. It happens all the
time. I don't see the public giving a shit.

~~~
rgbrenner
"get help from the best electric car company in the world"

Tesla has revenue of 200m/yr. At this rate, it'll be 160 years before Tesla
pulls in revenue equal to the R&D on this plane.

Tesla doesn't even manufacturer their own batteries.

Boeing doesn't need to go ask Tesla for help, they can buy the company with
the change in their pocket if they thought there was anything there of value
to them.

This is nothing more than a publicity stunt.

Did I already mention that Tesla does not manufacturer their own batteries.

~~~
dojomouse
Careful with your years. Teslas 2012 revenue will break $400mil. 2013 will
likely break $1bil.

~~~
rgbrenner

      2012 Tesla revenue
      Q1 30m
      Q2 27m
      Q3 50m
    

So you're saying that in q4, they will post 293m in revenue? Wow, that's some
impressive BS you're willing to believe.

[http://news.investors.com/business/050912-610645-tesla-
motor...](http://news.investors.com/business/050912-610645-tesla-motors-
electric-car-company-earnings.htm)

[http://techcrunch.com/2012/07/25/tesla-motors-q2-revenue-
mod...](http://techcrunch.com/2012/07/25/tesla-motors-q2-revenue-model-s-
production-update/)

<http://www.engadget.com/2012/11/05/tesla-q3-2012-earnings/>

~~~
jholman
Allegedly JP Morgan estimates $275.5M, and this analyst describes that as
"tepid".

[http://seekingalpha.com/article/1072761-the-true-genius-
of-t...](http://seekingalpha.com/article/1072761-the-true-genius-of-tesla)

In fact, even the articles you link all point to a plan that involves $400M
revenue for the year, and each article indicates that they're on-plan. Of
course, the plan COULD be wrong, and it could be deceitfully wrong, but it
seems utterly plausible, and apparently all analysts agree (within say 10%).

And also you're being needlessly rude.

------
nicholas73
This is about more than who has better engineers or a publicity stunt. This is
damage control.

Right now lithium is under heavy fire (no pun intended) both because its
expensive and explosive (besides this, many Fisker Karma cars burned).

Since Tesla is still losing money and has to raise money by selling stock,
Musk has to keep up appearances by showing Tesla has the know-how to make
lithium safe.

Or else, Tesla will run out of money soon, and game over.

~~~
natrius
Musk said in October that Tesla would be cash flow positive in a month's time.
If he was correct, it's no longer accurate to say that Tesla is losing money.

<http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk>

~~~
nicholas73
According to this author, Tesla is cash flow positive because it is counting
money from advance reservations.

[http://seekingalpha.com/article/1072761-the-true-genius-
of-t...](http://seekingalpha.com/article/1072761-the-true-genius-of-tesla)

"We will NOT hold your Reservation Payment separately or in an escrow or trust
fund or pay any interest on Reservation Payments, except to the extent
required by law."

~~~
pkulak
So. People are giving Tesla cash and they are counting that as cash flow. When
they build a new plant they don't take that money off the books because it
hasn't made any saleable cars yet.

~~~
riffraff
isn't the point of "amortizing" (sorry not sure about the english word)
exactly that of putting the money used to build a plant off the books for
years?

I think GP's point is that if in the next period they don't get more
reservations than they would be in the red, so the current black is to be
considered with a pinch of salt.

~~~
philwelch
You amortize expenses, not cash flows.

There are roughly two ways to do accounting. One: you count when cash enters
your bank account and when cash leaves your bank account. This is cash
accounting and it measures cashflow. This is important to track because if you
run out of cash, you're pretty boned.

The other way is more sophisticated. I think this is called accrual
accounting. With accrual accounting, if I sell you a widget, I count the
expense of the widget and the revenue from selling the widget at the same time
and trust that the cash flow will work out in the long run. So it doesn't
matter if you pay me first and then next year I ship you the widget, or if I
ship you the widget today and then you pay me, or if I buy the parts for the
widget on credit and pay my supplier after I sell the widget, because as soon
as I account for the revenue from the widget, I simultaneously have to account
for the expenses as well. This is more honest than cash accounting in the
sense that it's harder to game, but it's less honest in the sense that I have
to keep track of more accounting fictions. Amortization is one of these
accounting fictions.

You need to do both types of accounting at the same time. They just solve
different problems. Accrual accounting makes sure things will work out
profitably in the long run and cash accounting makes sure you won't run out of
money before then. What you don't do is mix and match approaches. If you take
in a bunch of cash now and then spend it on a manufacturing plant, you can't
say, "well, we're amortizing that" because amortization or not, you don't have
the cash anymore.

(Disclaimer: I am not an accountant. In college, I took two classes in
accounting, in the summer of 2004. I got a B and an A. The one I got a B in
was a 7 AM class and I usually slept in instead of bothering to go when there
wasn't a test. I did have the textbook for the class, so I was able to read it
at my leisure, though I focused a lot more on my infinitely more interesting
class on "Science Fiction and Philosophy". It was a summer class, and there
were six tests, one per week, and my grade was based on those six tests.
Before test #6, I calculated that I would get a B if I scored anywhere between
50% and 95%, so I didn't study very hard. Fortunately, the tests mostly
covered various extremely tedious details, not the general principles outlined
above. I believe I got an A in "Science Fiction and Philosophy".)

------
jnw2
[http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/dreamliner-
batteries...](http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/dreamliner-batteries-
and-tesla-batteries) implies that Tesla battery packs do a better job of
containing thermal runaway than many other battery pack designs; it may be
that simply replacing the Dreamliner's current batteries with a design very
similar to what Tesla uses in their cars would address the Dreamliner
problems.

Elon has been trading jabs in the press with United Launch Alliance (Boeing +
Lockheed Martin) over US military satellite launch, with Elon claiming he can
provide better pricing because SpaceX has more advanced technology; perhaps
there are multiple places Elon has more advanced technology than Boeing.

The other possibility is that Boeing may revert to using a non-lithium ion
battery technology. I haven't found any description of how much work they'd
need to do to make that happen.

------
danmaz74
Pretty clever PR move by Elon Musk. Now, if Boeing accept the offer, they give
the impression that Musk has better engineers. If they reject it, they look
arrogant and ungrateful.

~~~
ars
Most likely they'll just ignore it.

Do you like random people offering help when you are doing something?

~~~
georgemcbay
"Do you like random people offering help when you are doing something?"

If they are domain experts and they are actually likely to be helpful, then
absolutely I do. If they are just being polite and can't really help, then not
so much but I'll usually still appreciate the offer unless they are being
persistently annoying about it.

When I was younger and more insecure about my own abilities, I did not accept
help so graciously, but luckily I grew out of that phase.

------
codex
It's amazing how geeks continually fall for Musk's simple propaganda. If you
want to believe, you believe.

------
chris_mahan
Musk isn't some random dude. Between SpaceX, Tesla, and SolarCity, he probably
knows a thing or two about putting large things in the air and electric
batteries.

He's also said he would ultimately like to make electric airplanes, so this is
probably not the first day he's thought about it.

~~~
OGinparadise
_" Musk isn't some random dude. Between SpaceX, Tesla, and SolarCity, he
probably knows a thing or two about putting large things in the air and
electric batteries."_

No doubt <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing> engineers know a thing or two
or three or four about putting large things in the air and electric batteries,
but this is a specific and unfortunate problem. Inviting a few twitting
strangers (competitors too) out of the blue, unless they have a specific tip,
maybe isn't the way to go. If Elon knew the problem, he'd get 100 times better
press by telling them.

~~~
joezydeco
The battery in question wasn't built by Boeing but was outsourced to GS Yuasa
Corp in Japan.

Yuasa stated today it would "take months" to fully investigate the battery
fire.

~~~
joezydeco
Small correction: Boeing outsourced the power design to Thales, and _they_
chose Yuasa as the battery provider. So there are 3 companies involved in the
investigation so far.

[http://www.gsyuasa-lp.com/content/thales-selects-gs-yuasa-
li...](http://www.gsyuasa-lp.com/content/thales-selects-gs-yuasa-lithium-ion-
battery-system-boeing%E2%80%99s-787-dreamliner)

~~~
dudurocha
That reminded me the explanation of why Space X could reduce the costs of
making a rocket by fractions.

Elon said that the problem with NASA was that they had sub-contractors, that
had sub-contractors ad. infinitum. So each one of these sub-contractors had to
make a profit. SpaceX try to make everything in the building process.

~~~
protomyth
NASA, Boeing, etc. optimize for a different cost structure than Space X. Space
X wants to build cheap rockets, Boeing wants to build products that will be
funded by governments. This means Boeing has subcontractors in various voting
districts in the US (military contracts) or around the world (other government
/ commercial).

If some rule said Congress couldn't pick projects based on what districts got
the work (good luck with that), then Boeing would change its model.

~~~
ricardobeat
No, SpaceX wants to build _cost-efficient_ rockets, that's completely
different than cheap. But anyway, what you're saying is that Boeing want's to
suck money from the government however it can, while SpaceX wants to actually
build stuff? You are just confirming the comment you replied to.

~~~
protomyth
I meant no insult with "cheap" and thought it positive.

The business model Boeing is operating under is different. You can disparage
it, but it is a fact of live for any defense contractor or airplane
manufacture in the last 50 years of the 1900's. Boeing wants to build stuff
too, and its engineers are very good.

SpaceX didn't grow up under these conditions. It will be interesting if they
have to change after a few trips to DC.

------
jws
I suspect the most useful help would be helping the FAA come to grips with
lithium ion safety issues. Confronted with concerns about a novel technology
the FAA is going to have a hard time deciding how to sign off on safety.

I'm sure Musk's people have all sorts of checklists and criteria to be
satisfied for large lithium ion batteries in vehicular use. The FAA can then
apply those to Boeing's work.

~~~
Snoptic
Boeing has some long safety checklists too. How many cars is an airplane
worth? How many car companies is an airplane company worth?

~~~
jws
I'm sure Boeing does, but the FAA has doubts about those. They need more
input. I'm sure Tesla has more batteries in the field for longer periods and
probably harsher vibration environments. This is engineering and safety, not
finance. Dollars and the length of your list are not helpful metrics.

------
hnriot
Since Boeing is a huge asset to the US, in image projection and jobs and
prestige. This should be something that the US take seriously and throw
whatever it takes at it to solve the problem. The airliner being a success is
strategic to the US

------
KeepTalking
I highly doubt if Boeing would be interested, considering Elon and his band of
engineers at Space X are competitors to Boeing's rocket business. It is
amazing to see how both Boeing and Elon are pushing the envelope on the
development of battery technology.

~~~
temp453463343
If it's faster and cheaper to do it through Tesla then they'll do it. At the
end of the day they're businesses and if this means making more money - they
don't hold grudges.

------
BruceIV
What's in it for him?

~~~
grecy
I think you've just hit the nail on the head of what's wrong with the world
today.

Is it impossible to think a billionaire would offer to help another company
because he's a nice person?

Because he loves tech and wants to see modern, efficient designs like the 787
succeed?

Why do you automatically assume there is something in it for him?

Next time you have the chance, do a favor for someone, just because.

~~~
BruceIV
I do favors for people, but it's one thing to help your friend paint walls and
another to pay your employees to help your corporate competitor.

~~~
TeMPOraL
That's exactly what grecy was talking about. It is a different thing and
that's what's wrong with the world today. Boeing is a competitor, yes, but all
in all, they're together in the same game - making world a better place by
developing aviation technology. Right now Musk doesn't have an awesome
airliner, so why not help the guys who do?

(I'm not saying it is his motivation. But damn sure I'd love if things worked
this way. They should.)

------
ck2
The batteries used in the Tesla and the 787 are completely different.

And the ones on the 787 are made in Japan so I am sure the quality is
extremely high, there is just an engineering problem they didn't anticipate or
maybe they outsourced a component that failed.

------
zyang
How Boeing responds to this will show us how the company management is willing
to adapt.

~~~
DigitalJack
Maybe. I suppose Boeing could force the subcontractor, Hamilton Sundstrand,
that developed the Auxiliary Power Unit to work with Tesla/Musk in coming up
with a solution.

For Reference:

[http://atwonline.com/aircraft-engines-
components/news/ntsb-p...](http://atwonline.com/aircraft-engines-
components/news/ntsb-prepares-disassemble-jal-787-apu-battery-0114)

~~~
1123581321
HS had nothing to do with the battery, and their power load calculations were
correct. Personal sources (HS is huge in my city.)

------
Steko
Boeing has issued a response:

“Space transport guys are not going to just walk in and figure this out."

------
OGinparadise
Not sure I like this move, seems very opportunistic. If Elon has any concrete
tips he knows how to give them for free, or even sell to Boeing. Taking to
twitter seems cheesy. Imagine Google doing it to Amazon when AWS goes down.

Things happen even to the brightest so Elon and others should keep that in
mind.

------
venomsnake
With sufficient thrust Boings fly just fine ...

(RFC 1925)

~~~
ubernostrum
I commented about this in one of the other threads, but didn't really get to
the important point, so I'll throw it out here.

Basically every new airliner design suffers delays and problems entering
commercial service. That's not new, but the level of media saturation (aided
by this "internet" thing) probably is.

The other thing that's new... is that the planes aren't crashing and killing
people. New airliners of yore had a tendency to do that (as with the DC-10's
cargo door, for example). The last two to enter service -- the A380 and the
787 -- have both had problems that resulted in voluntary or involuntary
grounding, but the planes have stayed in the air, landed safely when in-flight
problems occurred, and everybody's survived those problems.

Which, given how vastly more complex modern airliners are, is really a hell of
an accomplishment.

~~~
venomsnake
This was a friendly jab. I have a few friends that work as a technicians and
engineers, so i know what the challenges in the industry are.

But battery overheating problem seems like someone underestimated the problem
gravely - it is not something new or surprising.

~~~
lmm
We get a story about it happening on a new laptop every few years - it seems
like every time you create a new battery there's a risk of this. One would
hope Boeing would use an old, certified design, but perhaps modern in-flight
entertainment systems use enough power that they needed higher-capacity
batteries than had previously been used on aeroplanes?

~~~
jrockway
The batteries are not for IFE. One is for starting the APU (a generator that
starts the main engines and supplies power on the ground), and the other is
for supplying the critical systems when both engines and the APU fail
simultaneously (i.e., they run out of gas).

When the engines are turning, there is no shortage of power for amenities.

They used LiIon batteries for the same reason your laptop and phone do:
they're small and have good energy density. The older technologies are not.
Weight is a big deal and when you want 10% better fuel economy than you had
before, you need to cut every gram.

