
A course in “exponential thinking” at Singularity University lures executives - t23
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/603433/for-14000-a-weeklong-firehose-of-silicon-valley-kool-aid/?set=603514
======
canadian_voter
_Diamandis took the stage to tell the class that the key to understanding the
future is to realize that technology is set to make things such as energy,
food, health care, and Internet access abundant and cheap._ \-- from the
article

 _" Our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too cheap to
meter... It is not too much to expect that our children will know of great
periodic regional famines in the world only as matters of history, will travel
effortlessly over the seas and under them and through the air with a minimum
of danger and at great speeds, and will experience a lifespan far longer than
ours, as disease yields and man comes to understand what causes him to age."_
\-- Chairman of the United States Atomic Energy Commission, 1954

 _U.S. health care expenditures have steadily increased as a share of gross
domestic product (GDP) over the last half century, increasing from 5.0 percent
of GDP in 1960 to 17.4 percent in 2013._ [0]

Food spending is down though. From about 15% to 5% of family disposable income
during the same period[1]. Some people say this is directly related to
increased health care costs.

Loving the idea of cheap solar. Just hope the externalities don't drive up the
price of those other things mentioned. [2]

[0] [https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-
Systems/Sta...](https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-
Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-
Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/Downloads/HistoricalNHEPaper.pdf)

[1]
[https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/DataFiles/Food_Expenditures...](https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/DataFiles/Food_Expenditures__17981/FoodExpenditures_table7.xls?v=42395)

[2] [https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-negative-externalities-
as...](https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-negative-externalities-associated-
with-solar-photovoltaics)

~~~
mustacheemperor
I also always think of that AEC quote when reading blue-sky future
predictions. That said,

>that our children will know of great periodic regional famines in the world
only as matters of history

With the exception of countries under oppressive regimes like the DPRK, isn't
this mostly true today? In 2003 the NYT published an article asking "Does
Democracy Avert Famine?", referring to a relatively recent Ethiopian famine as
being preventable by adequate societal oversight [0]. Last year, they
published "Is The Era of Great Famines Over?", referring to a drought in
Ethiopia that did not trigger a widespread famine as it did in 1993 (which is
the famine referred to in the first article).[1]

[0][http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/01/arts/does-democracy-
avert-...](http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/01/arts/does-democracy-avert-
famine.html?pagewanted=all) [1][https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/09/opinion/is-
the-era-of-gre...](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/09/opinion/is-the-era-of-
great-famines-over.html?ref=opinion&pagewanted=all)

------
daveguy
Do they go over the fact that almost every phenomenon that is viewed to be
exponential at the time is actually logistic (sigmoidal) given enough time?

Edit:

From the article: 'Several times a year it admits groups of executives for a
$14,000, weeklong course in “exponential leadership”—and an invigorating dose
of Silicon Valley Kool-Aid.'

Pretty close.

~~~
xkcd-sucks
Only the exponential phase is relevant, because you cash out midway through

------
rubidium
A few thoughts:

1) 90 executives, $14,000 dollars... that's $1.2 million!

2) "Brexit and the election of President Trump are the symptoms of society’s
preference to cling to the past rather than engage with the challenge of
making the most of the future, says Nail." That's a rather naive view of
what's going on in the world right now.

~~~
kmicklas
> "Brexit and the election of President Trump are the symptoms of society’s
> preference to cling to the past rather than engage with the challenge of
> making the most of the future, says Nail." That's a rather naive view of
> what's going on in the world right now.

How so? It strikes me as pretty accurate.

~~~
mortenjorck
It's economically naive to think that "people clinging to the past" is somehow
the root cause of Brexit and Trump. Why do people cling to the past? It's
usually because they feel uncertainty around something in the present and
foreseeable future. And for many who cast their vote in favor of these dubious
causes, the present was materially bad enough for them, whether through
unemployment, stagnating wages, or pay cuts, to take the chance.

In our bubble where we work in tech with stable, high-paying jobs, health
insurance, and benefits, these people look hopelessly provincial. But it was
by ignoring or dismissing them in the first place that Brexit and Trump were
allowed to happen.

~~~
kmicklas
> And for many who cast their vote in favor of these dubious causes, the
> present was materially bad enough for them, whether through unemployment,
> stagnating wages, or pay cuts, to take the chance.

That's largely a false narrative though. Trump's support was much stronger
among wealthy whites in areas that were doing relatively better than most of
the nation economically.

------
Cacti
Classic example of pseudo-intellectual philosophical word-salad disguised as
science.

~~~
aphextron
Yep. The CEO of Singularity University was on NPR here in SF yesterday and I
could barely stomach it. He sounded like a tech bro Deepak Chopra.

------
zekevermillion
I took intro to psych from Eugene Galanter in 2000 or 2001. He liked to
lecture on how the only point of taking an MBA is to unlearn the natural
tendency to perceive magnitde as a log fn of magnitude. Now we are teaching
MBAs the opposite, to apply a power law to every perceived trend or
opportunity...

~~~
cema

      the only point of taking an MBA is to unlearn the natural tendency to perceive magnitde as a log fn of magnitude
    

Interesting. Anything to read about it?

~~~
zekevermillion
This is the best I could find on the web. Unfortunately Galanter published in
an era when everything was paywalled. I've had a lot of trouble finding blog-
worthy writing of his, although his lecture is one of the few that I remember
from undergrad years...

[http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-94-010-2245-3...](http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-94-010-2245-3_6)

------
mchanson
A friend attended one of these. Was a good networking opertunity for her. I
think it ended up being worth the price of admission for getting those new
relationships.

------
ryandrake
Wow, paying $14K a pop so someone can "disrupt their current ways of
thinking". My hand could disrupt the side of their face for far less. These
people live in another world. I guess this is pocket change for them.

~~~
wutangson1
You could also use the back side of your hand to disrupt Chris Anderson, the
owner of TED, right? They charge $8,500/person. The one in '17 has already
sold out those tickets, and so they are charging $17,000/person. At the
'standard' price- assuming the usual 1,500 people- TED takes in a minimum of
$12.75 million. Then there are the revenues for TED Summit, TED Women, TEDx,
etc. etc. They also strongly suggest the fellows (speakers) give Chris
Anderson a standing ovation. None of the fellows get paid, as far as I know. I
am not suggesting there should be cash compensation.

------
trhway
so, after taking such a course our VP should see it as a natural thing the
exponential growth of the bug log...

------
the_watcher
The article is much more straightforward reporting on the class than the title
led me to believe, but it still made me laugh cynically: "For $14,000, a
Weeklong Firehose of Silicon Valley Kool-Aid"

------
CPLX
Every time I read an article like this it really affirms my decision to live
in New York City.

~~~
euyyn
I live in the Bay Area and the course sounds as absurd to me. But the
weather's nice here ^^

------
pdog
_> Futurist and Stanford professor Paul Saffo looked out over a mostly male,
mostly affluent-looking audience..._

I like when an article lets me know I can stop reading after the first
sentence.

~~~
wavefunction
It's healthy and prudent to learn about and from people who are different from
yourself. If nothing else, one can gain better insight into the information
that a person is exposed to, that they seek out and prefer, and the decisions
and rationale for those decisions.

Which can then inform your own efforts and decisions.

~~~
pdog
You'll learn far more having a two-minute conversation with someone whose
viewpoint is different vs. reading an article in the _MIT Technology Review_.

