
Arctic Has Entered 'Unprecedented State' That Threatens Global Climate Stability - lisper
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/04/08/researchers-warn-arctic-has-entered-unprecedented-state-threatens-global-climate
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systematical
We're going to be too late. This doesn't mean stop trying, but it does mean
accept it and begin exploring climate engineering and carbon capture. When I
say the latter, I literally mean remove the stuff out of the atmosphere and
some progress has been made. For the former:
[https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/as-planet-warms-
scientists...](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/as-planet-warms-scientists-
explore-far-out-ways-to-reduce-atmospheric-co2)

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thatoneuser
So looking at the graphs in the video it seems that 2016-2017 saw very
significant jumps. Is there significant reason to think that wasn't a random
phenomenon? AFAIK, contributers to climate change didn't also jump up (ie, we
don't have 20% more emissions). If so, what's the thing that the science is
suggesting is the cause?

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thesausageking
What's non-intuitive about climate science is that the climate is a non-linear
system.

You may have heard of the "Butterfly Effect". It comes from ideas set out by
MIT Meteorologist Edward Lorenz. In his seminal paper "Deterministic non-
periodic flow" (1963), he set out a model of atmospheric convection and showed
that temperature and fluid motion interact very non-linearly as one feedbacks
into the other. This means a small change in one, can have little impact in
the other. But doing another small change in one can cause a feedback loop
which creates a huge effect in the other. In his words, "one flap of a
seagull's wings would be enough to alter the course of the weather forever".

The scary conclusion this leads to is that the climate doesn't always change
gradually. After decades of gradual change from temperature increases, it can
hit a tipping point where a feedback loop occurs leading to very rapid change,
very suddenly.

And unfortunately we don't know exactly where this will occur. Many climate
scientists believe we're already there.

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ilikehurdles
An example... Soil releases more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as
temperatures rise, creating a self-intensifying loop.

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pizzazzaro
Or... Melting Arctic/Siberian sea ice may release methane into the air, a
greenhouse has several times more potent than carbon dioxide.

[https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18072017/arctic-
permafros...](https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18072017/arctic-permafrost-
melting-methane-emissions-geologic-sources-study)

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temdbej
Ironically Articles like this immediate allievate everyday anxieties for me
because it immediately puts into perspective how small the things I sometimes
worry about really are.

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kochikame
The whole northern hemisphere is already experiencing things like extended
winters/delayed spring, unusually wet and dry seasons, more intense summers
and winters, more frequent and stronger typhoons etc.

It's here, it's happening. It's going to start driving up prices of fruits and
vegetables, and impact other economic activity very, very soon.

It's not "if" but "how much" it's going to effect us

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devoply
People need a radical threat to act, otherwise it's slowly boiling a frog in a
pot. Radical threats don't exist for humans, they exist for the subjects of
human desire for power and control. Until this changes, people will never get
any of this.

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scardine
The "slowly boiling frog" is a good metaphor for failing to perceive a threat
when change is gradual enough, but according to Wikipedia it is not real:

> Modern scientific sources report that the alleged phenomenon is not real. In
> 1995, Professor Douglas Melton, of the Harvard University Biology
> department, said, "If you put a frog in boiling water, it won't jump out. It
> will die. If you put it in cold water, it will jump before it gets hot—they
> don't sit still for you." Dr. George R. Zug, curator of reptiles and
> amphibians at the National Museum of Natural History, also rejected the
> suggestion, saying that "If a frog had a means of getting out, it certainly
> would get out. [1]

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_frog](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_frog)

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posnet
People need a radical threat to act, otherwise it's like a human in a slowly
warming atmosphere?

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JDWolf
Do you work at Posnet in Agoura Hills? If so, I'd like to submit a resume.
(jdewolfe@protonmail.com if I am allowed to post email addresses on the board)

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posnet
Sorry no, my name is unrelated and is just part of my last name + net.

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JDWolf
Thank you for getting back. They have a software shop I drive by every day and
I wasn't sure the best way to get in touch with them.

Hope all is good on your side.

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jorblumesea
I think at this point, the question is not whether there will be serious
disruption, but how badly it will hit and where the prime spots will be to
live. Anywhere North with access to fresh water is looking pretty good right
about now. I'd imagine anywhere currently hot and arid will be more so, but
it's hard to predict.

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theothermkn
It's probably more complex than that, with more geopolitical factors involved.
Right now, for example, Russia's political economy is limited by access to
year-round deep water ports. China's relationship to Tibet is shaped by the
fact that Tibet is basically China's watershed. The bread basket of the United
States is just a bunch of fertile soil, blown off the Rockies, that happens to
have landed underneath fantastic weather for corn, or wheat, or what have you.
When any of those change, we're all going to become much more intimately
familiar with the phrase "balance of power."

It's not going to be a case of moving near fresh water. It's going to be a
case of getting tolerable living conditions subject to the political
apparatuses and distribution networks that develop in response to the power
structures that develop as the planet changes underneath the map and the map
changes underneath our feet.

Good luck!

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antisthenes
> It's going to be a case of getting tolerable living conditions subject to
> the political apparatuses and distribution networks that develop in response
> to the power structures that develop as the planet changes underneath the
> map and the map changes underneath our feet.

I've never seen anyone describe Mad Max so aptly!

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netsharc
Arguably Syria was/is Mad Max. It's a lot uglier than the movie, but the movie
had standards of decency to fulfill...

