

What if the Singularity does not happen? - alexwg
http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=memelist.html?m=1%23696

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aswanson
I remain skeptical:
[http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2006/02/the_singulari...](http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2006/02/the_singularity.php)

Applying Moore's law to every form of technological progress just doesn't
work. Look at the internal combustion engine, space travel, or energy
technology and try to fit an exponential curve to their datapoints since their
introduction.

~~~
rms
What about energy consumption? I think that's the most important measure of
technological progress.

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale>

~~~
aswanson
Sure is. But look at how long it has taken us to reach a Type I class with
fusion. Another technology that is eternally just 20 years away.

My main points of contention with Kurzweil are in his summary dismissal of
fundamental problems in science, acting as if because Moore's law exists,
nanobots running in our bloodstream are just a process node or two away.

He is also dismisses biological complexity as not being that inscrutable
because our genome is only as long as microsoft word in bit length. This is
just silly; the power in the code is it's expressiveness that explodes
combinatorially in a given environment. You know probably far better than I do
that his statements about the ease with which we'll understand DNA, etc. to
reverse engineer the brain is nowhere near as simple and linear a process as
he makes it out to be.

~~~
rms
I agree. Kurzweil makes for a nice fantasy though. I mean, it _could_
happen...

I think we've already hit a lesser singularity and no one noticed except some
crazy stoned guy that sent me spam emails: the singularity of information. I
can find practically anything I want to with a few keystrokes. I can talk to
anyone anywhere in the world with ease. It's pretty cool, even if it doesn't
make me a post-human. Maybe human 1.1.

~~~
aswanson
It does make for a nice fantasy...I got swept up in it for a while. After
thinking about it for a while though, I started to have doubts, at least about
his time frames.

You are right about the information singularity though, I still trip over how
_easy_ it is. I remember my earlier computing experiences back in the 80s with
the commodore; the computer was a toy. Even back in 91 with my crash-prone Mac
classic; it was still a toy. Then in 96 people kept talking about this
"Internet". I went to a PC at my school, typed in a few words and _answers_
came back. At that moment I thought _Holy s---, it happened without me._

In a way, I've been in that state of shock ever since.

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giardini
I read Kurzweil's book and got excited about his predictions. But two recent
trips: one to my dentist and the other to my doctor, left me with a saner
view.

My dentist used a new CAD/CAM system to carve a sliver of plastic to fit
perfectly into a hole he'd drilled into my tooth. Total cost of that
procedure: $500, uncovered by dental insurance (because it's a new procedure).
This is progress, but at a cost.

My doctor diagnosed multiple cysts in a private region. His cure: multiple
operations, each leaving me limping out of the hospital with a bag of ice
wrapped around my nuts and two week's of painful recovery. I asked for another
procedure (sclerotherapy) that involves no cutting, no pain, lower cost, and
no hospital or recovery time: he declined.

So IMO the singularity may arrive if you can 1) endure the procedures, 2) have
sufficient $$ to pay for them, 3) live long enough for doctors to get up to
speed. It is the last that I doubt will occur.

Medicine today remains barbaric and primitive, locked into a generational
struggle for control and knowledge. Medicine promises wonders but rarely
delivers. We've been promised cures for everything from cancer to cavities for
30 years but all that is delivered is crude cutting and poisoning
(chemotherapy) by people who are little more than glorified plumbers. We
funnel millions to the kingdoms of doctors/researchers, most whom are poor
scientists, and get little in return. They get their Mercedes, a third home in
Florida and free medical care.

Before any singularity occurs there will have to be a social change: organized
medicine needs to be knocked off it's pedestal and deregulated. The function
of the doctor must be de-elevated and possibly fragmented. The current system
is positively medieval, with doctors occupying the position of Catholic
priests during the Middle Ages. Hell, they still write their prescriptions in
Latin sometimes.

And don't get me started on HMO's.

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bgutierrez
I highly recommend watching the actual lecture. Those are just Vinge's notes.

<http://www.wholeearthfilms.com/vinge_vernor.html>

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gruseom
I'm surprised by how incoherent this page is; it almost seems cultish. Perhaps
this sort of thing would have found a more overtly religious expression in the
past.

~~~
jey
There definitely are plenty of religious wackos who take up the Singularity
too. You need to make a distinction between the views of a group and the
wackos within that group. Especially when it comes to something as
nebulous/fuzzy as the singularity. I totally agree that there are some
"singularitarians" who do treat it as a religion, they are just so excited by
the ideas that they irrationally glom on and make nonsensical claims, but this
doesn't reflect the views of _all_ of the members. Take a look at this:
[http://www.singinst.org/blog/2007/09/30/three-major-
singular...](http://www.singinst.org/blog/2007/09/30/three-major-singularity-
schools/)

For example, Bush is a member of the Republican Party, but I don't assume that
all Republicans are deranged genocidal maniacs.

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aagha
If the Singularity doesn't happen, then humans will probably live for another
few millenia.

If (and when) the Singularity /does/ happen, humans will be wiped off the
planet within a few centuries.

~~~
jey
" _If (and when) the Singularity /does/ happen, humans will be wiped off the
planet within a few centuries._ "

a. I disagree.

b. Even if I assume that you're right, why do you assume that all possible
outcomes in which there are no humans on the planet are negative outcomes?
e.g. What if all humans decided to "upload" themselves into computers?
(Assuming that such a thing is coherent and feasible and becomes commonplace.)

~~~
RichardPrice
Jey - if we all had kind-of abstract existences on computers, then we wouldn't
be able to wonderful things like dancing, sailing, skiing and all that good
stuff! We could just imagine ourselves doing that, and wouldn't that be worse?
It would be kind of like dreaming a life, instead of living it, and I'd _much_
prefer to live a life!

~~~
abstractbill
The kind of technology that would allow us to upload our minds to computers
would presumably be powerful enough to simulate a body and an environment so
convincing that we wouldn't know the difference.

~~~
anupamkapoor
indeed. greg-egan's "permutation city" dwells on the nature of reality in such
an environment.

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inklesspen
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Flemlord
Nonsense. The Singularity will happen, it's only a question of when. 20 years
at the earliest, 50 at the latest.

