
Gartner Says Vista Will Collapse. And That’s Why The Yahoo Deal Must Happen - terpua
http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/11/gartner-says-vista-will-collapse-and-thats-why-the-yahoo-deal-must-happen/
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Xichekolas
As funny as this would be to watch, I think this underestimates the lock-in
effect Microsoft has on business and everyday users. Even with Ubuntu, linux
isn't going to capture the mainstream in a long time, so the only real threat
to Windows on the desktop is OS X... and since you have to buy hardware to get
it, Microsoft still has a pretty strong moat here.

Now if Apple were to give away their OS for non-mac hardware, that would be
interesting.

As for Office, no online solution can compete until net access becomes
ubiquitous. You can't use Google Apps on a plane at the moment, and a lot of
users are comfortable with Word's UI.

I think Microsoft's business model is _eventually_ doomed, but not in any time
frame short enough to make the Yahoo deal matter in that regard.

It seems to me like Microsoft should leverage what it is very good at
(marketing) and try to compete with IBM in the consulting business rather than
try to compete online. There will always be a huge market of MBAs wasting
money on overpriced tech advice!

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dhimes
I'm not so convinced that Microsoft's business model is doomed. Even with
ubiquitous net access, there are still issues with keeping sensitive
information on evil corp servers. Not just legal (medical info, educational
records, etc.), but also practical issues. After all, if you are a software
company, you are competition for other software companies. (This is what MS
overlooked as Google was taking root.) Putting your business strategy in their
hands is not something I'm comfortable with.

I think MS's stranglehold will be loosened, however. I am fine working with
Open Office (I really like MS Publisher, however), Firefox, and other
"alternative" apps. I think others will be too, especially if the recession
turns out to be very painful.

Imagine how much $ a school system would save if they went to Open Office?

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wanorris
Large corporations will never switch to Open Office, because they have too
much invested. The home edition of MS Office is $129, which isn't too bad for
most home and small business users, and it means they have exact file
compatibility with other businesses.

I like Open Office, but I would never have bothered to switch except for the
fact that I prefer Linux to Windows.

I owould say that cash-strapped startups and nonprofits are the most likely
groups to switch to Open Office in particular, though I expect just as many
OO.o switchers are actually people who switch to Linux and use OO.o by
default. There would probably also be more switchers if the native Aqua
version for Mac were rock solid.

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allenbrunson
"vista will collapse" is likely too sensationalist. i'd say it's more that
windows is continuing its long, slow slide into irrelevance, a trend that has
been evident for several years now.

the most encouraging sign i've heard about microsoft lately is that the next
version of windows will supposedly break binary compatibility. it will
continue to run old apps, but only in an old-windows-emulator, much the same
way macosx used to run old mac classic apps. they'll finally get to break free
of the 20 years of backward compatibility that's strangling them.

that means they'll have a chance for a smaller, leaner OS. will they also take
that opportunity to make a _better_ os, in terms of user experience and
programming APIs? i kind of doubt it, because microsoft is too big to get out
of its own way. but it will be interesting to watch, nonetheless.

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ssharp
His general notion is that the operating system is doomed, which is a flawed
argument. Microsoft Office / iWork are still vastly superior to Google Docs.
Not too mention that the combination of browser and web software still doesn't
"feel" right in most desktop software emulation.

You might see some shift towards a truly portable environments but the idea
that the O/S is going to give way to solely a web browser is a bit much and
likely won't happen anytime soon. Computers do FAR too much with standard
software right now. The path to this browser-centric world is 10+ years from
now and too many other curve balls can be tossed in between to accurately
predict.

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thevapid
I agree with the first comment by Xichekolas and also Raphael's comment (4th).
MSFT is a very very large company. Most news sites paint the picture that
everyone is switching to online word editors... the only people who I know use
online editors are advanced tech savvy users who hate the load time of MSFT
Office. However, I would still always use Office for doing any type of
professional document such as essays, letters, resumes, etc.

Just because there are alternatives, doesn't mean the main competitor is
doomed. Perhaps in the long term, with Bill Gates no longer at the helm since
2000 (which is when Google came to rise), MSFT might be in trouble in the next
15 years or so.

Cheers

P.S. I used to read Digg many years ago when it was still up and coming but
now I cannot bare to read that site. The news posts are always the same
predictable things and the commentators are so unintelligent it's almost mind
numbing just being there. Great site here, will try to comment every once in a
while and weigh in.

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phaedrus
This reminds me of the Doctor Who episode where the Doctor tells the Prime
Minister he could destroy her with six little words, and all he does is
whisper to one of her aides, "Don't you think she looks tired...?" It becomes
a rumor that she's unwell and turns into self-fulfilling prophesy.

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Christmas_Invasion>

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webframp
Microsoft is, in it's current state, far from "doomed". The lock-in effect
mentioned will account for their survival for some time, look at businesses
still using windows 2000 in large deployment. The other thing to consider is
how they have been trying to refocus their direction and corporate girth to
target the web, i.e. online advertising, Silverlight and such. how successful
that will be remains to be seen.

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cstejerean
I dislike Microsoft, but the idea that the only hope of MS is online
advertising is scary. We're talking about 30 billion in sales for office and
windows. Is the only viable alternative for MS to give up all that in order to
chase advertising dollars? Will 'free' really kill an entire industry?

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wanorris
> Is the only viable alternative for MS to give up all that in order to chase
> advertising dollars?

No, of course not. Anyone who thinks that is on crack.

But what we may see is that Windows and Office are mature businesses and if
Microsoft wants to continue to grow, it will have to be online.

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edw519
The dirty little secret that public corporations don't talk about is that they
NEED TO PAY SOMEBODY. Freeware, shareware, and ad supported software are good
for many things, but as soon as something goes wrong (and it will), someone
must be held accountable. Imagine management telling ownership that "Google
lost our data and there's nothing we can do about it."

Microsoft's position may be threatened in the future, but only by someone
willing to take on that responsibility.

~~~
LogicHoleFlaw
IBM is making _bank_ on that need. They offer Free and Open Source software,
but take on the accountability and support. There's big money there, but I
think you have to have some major clout to really take advantage of it.

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gojomo
If you believe Vista/Windows is collapsing, doesn't it validate Yahoo's
resistance to combining with an even more doomed ship?

And so isn't TechCrunch's conclusion, including the "scorched earth" rant from
yesterday which called a Yahoo-Microsoft combination "the only reasonable
outcome", kind of silly? Reasonable for MSFT, perhaps, but not necessarily
anyone else.

TechCrunch: good for scoops, atrocious for measured analysis.

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ice5nake
I'm not familiar with Michael Silver or Neil MacDonald but wow, I hope this
isn't a case of prediction being any kind of catalyst. These guys probably get
high off the smell of their farts.

I wonder if they're Apple Fan-boys.

