
R.I.P. Good Times: One Year Later - vaksel
http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/10/06/r-i-p-good-times-one-year-later/
======
JacobAldridge
I know I've been reasonably immune to this, being based in Australia (where
interest rates are on their way back up!), but doing some global research for
a speech I have to give next week gives me mixed views about this article.

-True, much of the 'Great Depression' media was hyperbolic speculation

-But, this recession probably _will_ be the worst since the mid 1970s, and since most businesses weren't operating with their current owners back then many mistakes are being repeated due to lack of specific experience

-Green shoots and 'good times' articles are also premature. The bounce in stock markets is only just starting to be seen in the broader economy, and we're hearing this will be followed by a drag phase and then another significant dip before really taking off again (think a W shape)

Some of my colleagues ran a similar presentation in Washington State last
week, so if you search Twitter [1] you'll find plenty more thoughts and
observations.

[1] <http://twitter.com/search?q=%23shirlaws>

~~~
mahmud
_I know I've been reasonably immune to this, being based in Australia (where
interest rates are on their way back up!), but doing some global research for
a speech I have to give next week gives me mixed views about this article._

They went back up yesterday. The first developed nation to officially end the
recession.

But to be honest, I think the Aussie government has a relatively docile public
who are more tolerant of bullshit than other nations, so Rudd can pull off
stunts like this unquestioned.

------
TomOfTTB
I don't dispute there's a financial crisis but I've always believed this is
maybe the most over reported crisis ever. I can't count the number of times
I've heard "VC money is drying up." Someone ought to show those people these
charts. Again, no doubt there's a financial crisis but this whole "next great
depression meme" has been silly from the start.

(For an example of how silly things have gotten look in the comments for
"William Blanchard". He not only claims to have heard 60% of New Yorkers are
unemployed but he actually believed that number)

~~~
UncleOxidant
Perhaps, but news of "green shoots" has also been over reported for the last
few months. This thing isn't over by a long shot. Great Depression II, though?
Not likely. But I suspect we'll have unemployment around 10% for quite some
time.

~~~
RyanMcGreal
What concerns me is the question of what happens when economic growth finally
does take off again. At what point will increasing demand for oil push prices
into another economy-crippling super-spike?

------
bbuffone
Any look back to last year has to include the "Team Cyprus" video
[http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/10/10/team-cyprus-move-to-
und...](http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/10/10/team-cyprus-move-to-undo-the-
video/)

<quote>Team Cyprus: Alcohol + Bad Judgement + Really Poor Timing</quote>

Edit: Note I don't agree with the quote. I think it was funny how "some"
thought that people that earned money honestly, went to have fun was in Bad
Judgement.

