

Ask HN: Please trash my business plan (non-tech) - anigbrowl
http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dd93s8qb_49gb92tngq
This is a television show I have become involved with. My expertise is on the production &#38; post production side - the logistics of planning, shooting editing and delivering video. Business and raising capital, not so much.<p>About half of this is mine; the original was much more sale-sy and less business-y. There are two of us, the host/creator has sunk a lot of equity into it, it'sa  good product but it needs recapitalizing. I've been working free on this for the last month. I suck at business; I need to be the CTO and manage the manufacture and delivery of the product, which is plenty of work for one person.<p>For confidentiality reasons, I've left out the financials. In brief, we're looking to raise up to $500k and thinking of a 10-15% risk premium with full recap in 3-5, plus 1-2% of net. I think YC people are honest enough that I feel safe to post it here.<p>Thank you for your time. Anything from 'tl;dr' to longer critiques would be welcome. If you prefer, email me at eddy@entertainingpeople.com. If this is inappropriate for YC, feel free to say that too.
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spitfire
Are you sure you want us to do this?

We are in the start of the greater depression, the yuppies you want to sell to
no longer have money. Wine, travel, Lifestyle/keeping up with the jones' is
now considered tacky.

Business plan trashed. Sorry.

~~~
woodsier
I disagree. There will always be yuppies who have money. In times of
depression they are the least effected group (relatively).

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patio11
Nine out of ten yuppies, or more, will make as much money in 2009 as they did
in 2008. They can still afford their mortgages. Consumer confidence aside,
tell me why they're going to suddenly stop shopping at Whole Foods, buying
organic, drinking wine, and otherwise displaying upper middle-class tastes in
food consumption.

~~~
spitfire
Yuppies are being absolutely pounded. They can't spend on credit or rely on an
ever increasing stock market to fund their lifestyle. Please provide proof
that 9/10 yuppies will be fine. I don't buy it for a second. I've got my own
analytics which suggest otherwise.

Consumer savings rate going up. [http://www.creditloan.com/blog/consumers-
saving-instead-of-s...](http://www.creditloan.com/blog/consumers-saving-
instead-of-spending/)

bmw sales plunge [http://silverscorpio.com/bmw-reports-plunge-in-sales-as-
econ...](http://silverscorpio.com/bmw-reports-plunge-in-sales-as-economic-
crisis-deepens/)

wine sales plunge <http://wineindustryinsight.com/?p=2073>

hotel occupancy off 11%
[http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/-j6_abqDrqc...](http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/-j6_abqDrqc/hotel-
occupancy-off-11.html)

housing delinquencies move into prime.
[http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnaly...](http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/zeXrN0JejR4/fannie-
freddie-delinquencies-soar-and.html)

~~~
Confusion
Those numbers are all across the entire population, while this site is only
aiming at the high segment. The question is whether sales of the BMW X5, St.
Emilion Grand Cru 1986 and the Bride Suite of the Ritz have also dropped.

~~~
spitfire
Hamptons real estate high end enough for you?
[http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2009/04/hamptons_real_estate_ma...](http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2009/04/hamptons_real_estate_market_of.html)

Same thing going on in other (supposedly) rich peoples enclaves. and yes, High
end champange's have been hit. As has the bride suite.

Now, the _true_ high end market has not. But those people are not even
watching your shitty cable tv show. They'll be calling quintesentially[1] and
telling them to book a vacation.

I should also note that Bentley sales are down. But not across the board. Only
the new-money models - continental gt/flying spur. So everything aspirational
from your low end bmw 3-series, all the way up to your nouveau riche Bentley's
are being slammed.

I don't have room to post my full analysis - I have actually run serious
numbers on this. But the yuppie/aspirational class are really, seriously
getting smashed. I would not start a business based on their greed and
consumption right now.

Now would be a fantastic time to start a do-it-yourself channel or
travel/luxury on the cheap.

[1] <http://www.quintessentially.com/>

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sharpn
Not a critisism, but a question: why are you paying a return on investment
funds from before they are drawn? I'm curious - was that based on a precedent?

~~~
anigbrowl
There is no revenue to speak of at present. Also, that's what I inherited.

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suhail
People like Dave McClure and VentureHacks have always said keep your business
plan short: 1 page.

~~~
psyklic
The point behind having a business plan isn't to have a business plan, but to
think through all of the necessary aspects of your business.

Whether you write all of that down in a long document or condense it into
Powerpoint slides for a pitch is irrelevant. The point is that you have
thought about the big picture, as it is clear that this team has.

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gojomo
SF resident, haven't heard of the show or the host. Website at
entertainingpeople.com looks like incomplete brochureware (several
empty/under-construction pages).

Payback formula of 1% (or is it 1.5%) of revenues and 10% interest seems
complicated... not-quite-equity and not-quite-debt... offers capped upside but
possibility of 100% loss.

~~~
anigbrowl
I agree 100% on the website. The dead pages are due it being recently
hacked/restored :-( But it's very much brochureware. I've had a lot of
resistance to changing that, but your comment helps a lot.

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mingyeow
summarize to one page and repost! I promise to give feedback then:
mingyeow@gmail

