
Otto joins Uber - ktta
https://blog.ot.to/our-next-chapter-otto-joins-uber-307ee347a5bf#
======
kristianc
What's the story behind Otto? There are exactly two blog posts on the Otto
blog- Otto launches and Otto sells to Uber.

The line 'When we started Otto we committed to rethinking transportation' \-
what, three months ago?

I hadn't heard of these guys before, but a business designed to be quick
flipped? Was this business ever not part of Uber? What kind of three month old
startup has a team that size?

There doesn't seem to actually be even an MVP product there. How do businesses
like this end up getting built and sold so quickly?

~~~
Fricken
This is from the big Bloomberg article/interview that came out today:

'Kalanick began courting Levandowski this spring, broaching the possibility of
an acquisition during a series of 10-mile night walks from the Soma
neighborhood where Uber is also headquartered to the Golden Gate Bridge. The
two men would leave their offices separately—to avoid being seen by employees,
the press, or competitors. They’d grab takeout food, then rendezvous near the
city’s Ferry Building. Levandowski says he saw a union as a way to bring the
company’s trucks to market faster.'

Which implies to me that the plan was for Uber to acquire Otto all along.

"Okay, Travis, but I don't want to just get hired on as another employee, I
want to be cool like Kyle Vogt. Give me a few months to buy some trucks, rig
them up with sensors, put splashy logos on them and get some press, and then
you can acquire me using some of those Saudi gigabucks you picked up in your
series F."

~~~
wh-uws
Can you really blame a person if they could pull this off?

~~~
twblalock
I see nothing wrong with it. Otto takes on the risk of developing a new
business, and gets acquired if the risk pays off. Uber gets to benefit from
Otto's efforts without taking the risk, but they have to pay for it in order
to make it theirs. It's mutually beneficial, and risks get taken that probably
wouldn't be taken otherwise, which is good for innovation.

This kind of thing is pretty common at Adobe and Cisco as well. There is a bit
of a revolving door of executives and senior engineers leaving to start
companies, intending from the beginning of being acquired by their former
employer if their business pans out.

Many companies could not take the risk of running an innovative new business
internally -- their board wouldn't let them, or their investors wouldn't. This
kind of thing probably results in more research and innovation taking place
that would have otherwise.

------
rubidium
Correct me if I'm wrong, but there's some big mis-information by Otto.

They quote: " It’s no surprise that trucking companies see over 90% of their
drivers quit every year in search of better opportunities. " That was in 2014,
and it was due to (from the link they provide) “larger fleets raising pay,
offering bonuses and attracting more and more drivers from smaller fleets to
fill seats.” They were still truckers, just different companies.

The Otto piece made it sound like they were leaving trucking all together.

The whole tone of the article of "making lives better for truckers" just falls
flat. Not sure why they're trying to suger-coat it.

~~~
themartorana
It seems a dichotomous goal - make truckers' lives better while building tech
to put truckers out of work.

~~~
GauntletWizard
If Otto takes the 11-hour highway stints out of trucker's days, and instead
they work shift-work in major hubs, it is entirely possible that they will do
both. The winners will get predictable, stable hours, the losers out of a job.

~~~
biggc
> predictable, stable hours

Probably with gradually reduced overall pay, because there will be a fraction
of the jobs with the same number of potential truckers. I'm sure investors
will see a solid return though.

~~~
thdespou
If I were a trucker I would look for a career change...

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guelo
Commercial long-haul freight belongs on railroads for both environmental and
economic reasons because it is so much more efficient. It doesn't make sense
that in our glorious free market freight on highways is taxpayer subsidized
while freight on rail is mostly private.

~~~
martinshen
This is a common misinterpretation of who pays for roads. Effectively roads
are paid for by gas tax. Gas used to be a great proxy for how many miles you
drive and where you drive those miles.

Now, freight and commercial trucks are effectively the biggest contributor to
this tax plus they have to pay for weight. Consumers are the ones getting
freebies (especially electric, hybrid etc.)

~~~
msandford
> Now, freight and commercial trucks are effectively the biggest contributor
> to this tax plus they have to pay for weight. Consumers are the ones getting
> freebies (especially electric, hybrid etc.)

I couldn't disagree more! Wear on roads is to the fourth power of pressure.
And while trucks might have 10x the contact patch your car does, they might
weigh 30x as much. So the pressure might be 3x and thus the wear 3 x 3 x 3 x 3
= 81 times as much.

If you look at road costs as largely maintenance then cars are subsidizing
trucks because one truck could do orders of magnitude more damage, but have to
buy orders of magnitude more fuel. Why is that? Because past a certain point
fuel consumption is dominated by drag, and thus, frontal area. 8-10 MPG for an
18-wheeler is reasonable. That's not 81 times worse fuel consumption, perhaps
only 2x or 3x compared to modern cars.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AASHO_Road_Test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AASHO_Road_Test)

~~~
dmurray
> Wear on roads is to the fourth power of pressure.

This isn't quite right. The pressure on the outside of the tire is the same as
the pressure on the inside, and truck tires aren't inflated to 3x the psi of
car tires - they might be 55 psi instead of 35. If pressure were really the
issue, bicycles would be much more damaging to the road. Racing bikes are
typically inflated to 100-150 psi.

As your link points out, the correct relationship is linear in the fourth
power of the weight per axle. Your conclusion is correct of course.

~~~
TheSpiceIsLife
What does the tyre inflation pressure have to do with the pressure applied to
the road due to the gross vehicle mass?

Nothing.

~~~
bjornsing
> What does the tyre inflation pressure have to do with the pressure applied
> to the road due to the gross vehicle mass? > > Nothing.

Well, the "pressure applied to the road" is approximately the same as the tire
"inflation pressure"... It's not exactly the same because you need to take
into account that the pressure in the tires increases (a bit) when you load
the truck, and you have to be clear that you're talking about "overpressure",
i.e. the relative pressure difference between the inside of the tire and the
atmosphere.

What I think you meant to say is "What does the tyre inflation pressure have
to do with the _force_ applied to the road due to the gross vehicle mass?"
Then your conclusion ("Nothing") is correct.

~~~
TheSpiceIsLife
Yes, sorry, you're right, the second occurrence of the word 'pressure' should
have been 'force'.

------
seibelj
Is it really possible to have an "observer" of a self driving vehicle step in
to save it in the event of an emergency? If you trust the vehicle for
thousands of hours, and it never has a problem, you would of course start
sleeping, reading, watching movies, etc. while it drives. The act of driving
keeps you engaged, watching a car drive itself would be beyond boring.

~~~
azernik
The goal seems to be fully autonomous driving for the easy parts (highway
driving, which automatic systems are already quite good at) and a human driver
just along for the ride to handle the hard part (city streets) at the ends.

~~~
robotresearcher
A driver could meet the truck at the freeway off-ramp to take over or
supervise for the last few miles. Truck depots are already close to freeways,
so depot-to-depot transfers could be completely unmanned.

A trucker's job would be to ride out to the edge of town and back again. Life
would be like that of a UPS driver (though driving a big truck is real skill
so it might command better pay). No more weeks away from home.

~~~
jonknee
Today's truck stops could actually become where drivers start their drive. Do
a local delivery, pick up new freight and drop the rig back off at the truck
stop to send it on its way to wherever.

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jdoliner
I'd love the hear their justification for why this is going to lead to
truckers getting paid more...

~~~
echelon
It's going to put them all out of work, eventually. Similar to training your
replacement.

~~~
epa
Im not so sure of that. The hardest part of trucking is the first 1% of the
trip and the last 1% of the trip. I envision that the robotic trucks will
leave and enter into designated facilities at the outskirts of town, from
there a trucker can take the truck to the client to unload and sign the paper
work, bring it back and set it on its new course. I think it will allow
truckers a more specialized role of client service and trickier city driving,
and to work in one city every day, instead of travelling.

~~~
samastur
And how many truckers do you think this job would need compared to now?

It's hard to imagine that not a lot fewer unless you expect that number of
trucks on roads would rise by some multiple of now.

~~~
kbenson
You may well be right, but that doesn't change the fact that it would justify
the original statement regarding truckers being paid more. The part that was
left out of the original statement was demand for truck drivers, which is
generally accepted will drop with increased automation.

It's true in the same way that we can say that "factory workers" in the US get
paid much more than they used to. This is because they are more likely to be
_technicians_ now, who service the robotic assembly line. The nature of the
job has changed with automation, and truck driving will be similar.

~~~
robotresearcher
With 98% of truckers suddenly on the job market, you think trucker pay would
rise?

The last-mile drivers aren't debugging robot trucks. In the worst case the
robot truck just turns back into a regular truck. No new skills required for a
trucker.

~~~
kbenson
If we assume navigating a city is the harder part of trucking (and I believe
that, I've seen some crazy trucking maneuvers on city streets), and that
truckers of the future are going to be largely navigating the city over and
over, then we are quickly going to see which truckers can do that well without
problems. The number of truckers available on the market will increase, but
the job will be fundamentally different in the composition of skills required.
It's _possible_ that those that can quickly and reliably navigate city roads
without problem will rise to the top and be able to command higher wages. It's
not guaranteed and it wouldn't be immediate, but I'm not sure it's unlikely.

------
Cozumel
So..How will drivers get paid more when they don't have a job?!

I'm all for this kind of technology but they need to at least be honest about
what they're working towards.

~~~
xanadohnt
This is the same spin that Über employs themselves. It's clear the ultimate
goal is to remove human drivers completely. Their rhetoric otherwise is so
transparent it's insulting.

~~~
bogomipz
Right isn't their pitch to drivers "be your own boss"?

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saynsedit
News release from the future:

After 2 years the original Otto product failed to get a footing in the market.
Simultaneously, all attempts to integrate Otto technology into the core uber
product failed due to internal politics and the fundamental impedance mismatch
between self-driving AI for trucks and urban transportation. Additionally all
original core Otto staff have left, and some are pursuing a new company that
will revolutionize the future of truck driving.

~~~
thebiglebrewski
I'm putting a reminder in my calendar 2 years from now to check in on this!

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jjguy
There is additional context in the Bloomberg article posted this morning. [1,
2]

Based on the timestamps, kinda looks like the Otto blogpost was prompted by
the Bloomberg article -- even though the "agreements were reached" in July
according to Bloomberg.

1 -
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12311559](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12311559)
2 - [http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-08-18/uber-s-
fir...](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-08-18/uber-s-first-self-
driving-fleet-arrives-in-pittsburgh-this-month-is06r7on)

~~~
linkregister
The agreements were reached but the press release wasn't until today. Also it
is likely employees of both companies weren't informed until today.

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__derek__
Maybe it's just me, but name collisions seem to be happening a lot lately. My
association with "Otto" is Hashicorp's tool.[1] This announcement makes more
sense than the one I expected to read.

[1]: [https://www.ottoproject.io/](https://www.ottoproject.io/)

~~~
philippnagel
Another collision:
[http://www.ottogroup.com/en/](http://www.ottogroup.com/en/) (although
probably not that well known in the english speaking world).

~~~
lispm
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otto_GmbH](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otto_GmbH)

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6stringmerc
Wait, so this link isn't to a parable about a former school bus driver who
"loves to get blotto" becoming an Uber driver? Um, well, uh, good for Otto,
but I must admit I'm a wee bit disappointed for purely selfish reasons.

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cpr
The first few flaming wrecks with self-driving trucks involving particularly
ugly (complete crushing, burn-out, etc.) passenger car deaths are going to
trigger a massive backlash. I don't think at that point that any arguments
about how the overall accident rates are being cut, etc., will hold much water
for most people.

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thrownblown
Logistics and transport, human or material, isn't a good job. It is a good
paying job. One of the last good paying jobs you could obtain without any
higher education.

Nobody really wants to do these jobs, except maybe a bike messenger, and that
only last so long.

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whalesalad
I'm surprised this started as autonomous trucking. It's a HUGE industry with a
massive and unionized workforce that isn't going to go quietly. I wonder why
the Uber approach of starting with human drivers wasn't chosen. There are lots
of trucks out there with dedicated career drivers who make a life out of it.
They often return home without a trailer or load and having an uber-for-cargo
would be a great way to take advantage of those empty legs (this term is from
the airplane industry but I think it applies here)

Going from zero to self-driving seems a little advantageous.

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conradfr
OK but do they use MySql or PostgreSql ?

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xorgar831
That was quick. Otto is a few months old?

~~~
nullcipher
It's a great Acquihire. Uber immediately gets all this self-driving expertise.

~~~
linkregister
Uber already has plenty with its ATC in Pittsburgh (the core engineers were
hired from CMU's robotics lab). I'm guessing Otto has expertise specific to
the trucking domain. At supposedly $680M, it seems like a high price.

~~~
sf_rob
It's former Google self-driving car engineers so they have a lot more than a
few months of knowledge about the domain.

~~~
huac
The Bloomberg article claims that they left Google to bring their product to
market more quickly.

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pauljaworski
I interviewed last year for a company called Walkboard Technologies[1] that
billed themselves as "Uber for truck drivers." Their goal was the "new way to
connect drivers and shippers" part of Otto's business model.

Looks like they got beat to the punch big time here.

1\. [http://www.walkboard.com/](http://www.walkboard.com/)

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zump
Easiest money ever made. What the fuck am I doing with my life?

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lfender6445
is otto using LIDAR or camera tech to for vehicle automation?

~~~
bogomipz
I'm familiar with RADAR and LIDAR, what is the camera-based alternative to
these?

~~~
jonknee
There's not a fancy acronym for it, but it's what most current lane centering
tech uses (e.g. Tesla Autopilot). It's actually pretty off the shelf kit from
Mobileye.

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c-slice
Is this a plan for uber to enter the trucking logistics market?

~~~
HammadB
Yup

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jzig
Simpsons did it.

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Robotard
Fuck. Such a shame that Uber didn't snatch up Waze before Google did. This is
such a fucking great idea!

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Robotard
Fuck. Such a shame that Uber didn't snatch up Waze before Goog. So much extra
info gained for so many uses

