

The Robots Are The Chefs In This Japanese Restaurant - kkleiner
http://singularityhub.com/2009/08/03/the-robots-are-the-chefs-in-this-japanese-restaurant/

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biohacker42
This makes me think of a recent Economist article about the industrial
revolution.

The question is why did the industrial revolution happen in the UK? Lots of
other places had innovation earlier, had banking earlier, etc. But one theory
is that the UK at that point in time uniquely had expensive labor combined
with cheap energy. Then and only then did industrialization make sense,
because only then was it economical - profitable.

So I'm wondering when will advanced robotics, capable of completing complex
tasks in the service industry be more economical then minimum wage humans?

Sadly I don't think this is going to happen soon, human labor is cheap and
industrial robots are expensive.

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oldgregg
This is a little gimmicky, but restaurant automation is fascinating -- payroll
is still a massive expense for most restaurant. For fine dining, forget it.
But for fast food I'm surprised more hasn't been done in this space. I know
there have been a few attempts here and there, but the closest thing at scale
is some of the crazy vending machines in japan.

Fast food already seems so systematic that I'm kind of surprised that
automation hasn't made much progress. It seems like automation costs are the
prohibitive factor, but I just don't understand why.

I feel like a concept with these constraints could work:

a) vending machine with minimal real estate / high traffic

b) a very limited menu where the food has been chosen based on ease of
automation

c) only uses products from sysco

You still have upfront engineering costs, but assuming you can get food
quality above McD's you'll be fine.

I also wonder how much chefs have collaborated with engineers in previous
attempts. For instance, if McDonalds built a machine it would HAVE to make a
BigMac -- now you've already introduced bad constraints. It's also likely that
the natural innovator, manufacturers of food service machinery, have strong
financial incentives NOT to innovate.

I'm mostly full of crap, but it is interesting. :)

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ivankirigin
Chefs are the last humans I'd automate in a fine restaurant.

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antonovka
You can not replace Omakase with robots, but I would gladly have my day-to-day
food requirements met by robotic cooks that:

\- Allow me to arbitrarily adjust the variables involved in making my food,
and thus discover the perfect bowl of noodles, the perfect burger, etc.

\- Reduce service costs to the minimum, allowing restaurants to further
compete on ingredient quality and other factors.

\- Never burn my toast.

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ivankirigin
Robots already make your toast, and consistently get it wrong.

Robots for the next decade will certainly increase costs of chefs. You know
short order cooks at most restaurants get paid close to nothing right? 10/hr =
20K/yr = 10% the cost of today's robots, and probably 2% factoring
maintenance. And thats just for the hardware. The problems we're talking about
require better hardware (for perception and dexterous hand) and unavailable
software.

Lower on the spectrum of dining, the "cook" is actually a microwave. People
don't want to know how much food is just reheated. Ever eaten a "hot
continental breakfast" at a hotel? Biscuits and gravy, bacon, scrambled eggs,
sausage, etc. - all reheated from frozen. Disgusting.

Finally, it's pretty arrogant to assume the perfect burger is just the right
combination of ingredients and permutation of steps. The perfect burger is
100% an editorial creation.

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rsheridan6
>Robots for the next decade will certainly increase costs of chefs. You know
short order cooks at most restaurants get paid close to nothing right? 10/hr =
20K/yr = 10% the cost of today's robots, and probably 2% factoring
maintenance.

Robots don't just work 40 hour weeks. They'll work as many hours as the store
is open. They also don't require benefits, the employer doesn't have to pay
unemployment insurance, and they don't have to pay social security taxes. In
addition, there are harder to quantify benefits like the fact that robots
don't call in sick, call in drunk, etc, and they'll probably be less likely to
do things like drop or burn food.

When you factor in all of that, a better estimate of the cost of a human
compared to the cost of a robot would be more like 25%. The robot starts
looking better. And the price of technology tends to come down over time.

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ivankirigin
Asimo has a 15 minutes battery life, and batteries are improving at sub-linear
rates. Tethering solves this, or some kind of ICE, but neither are useful
everywhere. People require a pizza day, which is amazing.

You're right about the price of technology, but the timeframe is what I'm
talking about. I think the "robot revolution" is inevitable. But I still like
to poke holes in theories that it is around the corner, but it isn't.

Cheap restaurants and other cheap labor intensive activities are the _last_
things that will be automated. Your manager job will go first, along with your
highly paid pilots, etc.

