
The Scourge of Hygiene Theater - mrfusion
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/scourge-hygiene-theater/614599/
======
renewiltord
We all know how this happens. Some scientist fails to out-rule some
hypothesis, she honestly publishes "X may happen if Y", the news publishes "X
could happen if Y!", some dude on the Internet will go around saying "We don't
know X can't happen! You're a fool for thinking X can't happen! If you aren't
acting as if X is guaranteed to happen, you are killing people".

And then everyone who is a positive conformist piles on.

Don't tell me, I know. "Immunity may not be real", "Masks may not work",
"Nervous system damage may occur", blah blah blah. A bunch of people who don't
understand that knowledge is a probabilistic thing.

Listen, I know you guys¹ are not prepared for low-information high-replication
messaging because of how you're reacting to this but I've lived through two
local epidemics before. It's always this way. And until the first time you're
inured to The Echo Engine of people who know nothing but repeat things with
increased artifacts, you'll believe them. It's just unfortunate that you did.
No biggie. Being unable to tell truth from bullshit isn't a crime.

But for the love of God, don't join The Echo Engine.

¹ Why, Rene, do you consider yourself more prepared? Because I knew
imperfection in mitigation is okay. Because when HN was busy telling me that
the only masks that would work were N95 and higher masks, and only when worn
by professionals, and only when discarded after 8 hours of use, I didn't
listen. Because this isn't FOOF. _Very few things in the world need
perfection_. Nature doesn't like the Heaviside step function that much.

~~~
brigandish
FOOF?

~~~
virtue3
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dioxygen_difluoride](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dioxygen_difluoride)

~~~
impendia
And for a singularly entertaining account:

[https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2010/02/23/th...](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2010/02/23/things_i_wont_work_with_dioxygen_difluoride)

~~~
ineedasername
Yes, specifically remarkable is that at 0.2 ml, it created what was described
as a "violent" explosion. Not just an explosion, which seems like it would be
remarkable for any quantity so small, but a violent one. And oh by the way
that was all of the way down at 90 Kelvin.

------
chrisjarvis
> “People have prevention fatigue,” Goldman told me. “They’re exhausted by all
> the information we’re throwing at them. We have to communicate priorities
> clearly; otherwise, they’ll be overloaded.”

This was the best quote from the article for me. In my experience as a casual
news watcher, the messaging about the virus has finally unified into a simple,
easy to digest one in the last month (masks help, continue to social distance,
etc.). But for the first few months of this all the articles about Covid
particles living on every surface for weeks and then the even more nonsensical
stories about pets getting Covid thinned out the whole message so much that I
empathize with people who didn't take it seriously.

~~~
ibejoeb
I really couldn't disagree more with the notion that the messaging is unified.
No science supports masking for the general population. New Zealand, which is
touted as the gold standard (however ridiculous a comparison to anything else
it might be) doesn't mask and advises against it:
[https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-
conditions/...](https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-
conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-health-advice-general-
public/covid-19-use-face-masks-community) (individual sources here
[https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/revi...](https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/review_of_science_and_policy_around_face_masks_and_covid-19-15may2020.pdf))

Scandinavia can't agree on policies. Americans are physically fighting each
other over it, in probably the funniest overt display of criminal obedience.

It was fomites, so don't touch anything, and don't touch your face. Now there
are no fomites, and definitely put a dirty rag on your face at all times.

I'd go back to 9/11 over this cluster fuck in a heartbeat.

~~~
pbourke
> No science supports masking for the general population.

How’s this for science: look at the statistics for nations which had near-100%
mask compliance (Taiwan, SK, Japan).

Look at the animal study on hamsters separated by walls made of surgical
masks.

The resistance to masks in the US is just insanity.

~~~
refurb
Taiwan, SK and Japan are doing a lot more things than just wearing masks. Not
sure I’d attribute all of their success in keeping cases low to masks alone.

~~~
renewiltord
You want to see some amazing stats?
[https://english.metro.taipei/cp.aspx?n=C702FF0562802D53](https://english.metro.taipei/cp.aspx?n=C702FF0562802D53)

Check the average daily ridership every month, compare against the previous
year. No matter what else they do, they're still on the trains. Even in the
worst months, 2/3rds as many rides were taken. Social distancing? Psh.

If you're curious, NY MTA reports -75% right now. That's right. Taipei -33%
_at worst_ , NY MTA -75%. Which city was worse hit? Which city was hit first?
Which city was closer?

~~~
refurb
Sure, but those countries were also doing a ton of testing, contact tracing
and strict quarantines (even very early in the epidemic).

Masks are certainly a part of of it, but I wouldn't assign the entire impact
to them.

------
kbenson
Now if only we could get the media to report on useful statistics, rather than
total number of cases between geographic areas that differ widely in size and
population.

California's not even in the top 20% for new cases over the last 7 days per
capita, and is barely in the top 50% overall per capita, but we have the most
individual cases overall because we have such a large population. That it gets
reported along with Florida every time there's a "new record" broken in new
cases (gripe number two, for a similar reason) is just the media trying to
make the headlines seem as relevant as possibly to the largest audience, even
if it's more fear-mongering than useful.

~~~
war1025
> Now if only we could get the media to report on useful statistics

The website for my state [1] has a map with infection counts by county. The
irritating thing about this map is it's total numbers since February. That
tells me nothing useful in terms of how places are currently doing. You can
click on individual counties and it'll give you the 14 day rolling total,
which is pretty useful for seeing upticks and improvements.

But for whatever reason, we've decided that "number of people who ever got
sick" is the benchmark we need to focus on. It seems completely unhelpful.

[1] [https://coronavirus.iowa.gov/pages/case-
counts](https://coronavirus.iowa.gov/pages/case-counts)

~~~
dredmorbius
Even Wikipedia only gives cumulative counts for Iowa :(

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Iowa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Iowa)

~~~
war1025
I like how the entire map on that page is dark red. Somehow 0-1% seems like
too low a range for the scale there. Maybe just needs to be rebalanced by
someone.

------
ggm
OTOH casual rates of enterovirus, norovirus are down, and I believe are used
by epidemiologists to track likely adherence to isolating behaviours. So a
side-effect measurement which helps understand risks in fomites and Covid-19
also is a public health story in itself: some of the more pernicious infection
risks from not washing hands, touching contaminated surfaces has reduced
significantly.

But, underlying problems with food infection (Salmonella, worms and parasites,
off meat) have not improved, because they are not amenable to this level of
community change, they vest in food handling behind the scenes which has
always had an expectation of high cleaning burdens.

------
helen___keller
Theater is what you get when your country isn't prepared to pay the (monetary,
political, cultural) cost of actually effective policy.

------
9nGQluzmnq3M
The theatrical aspects are particularly visible when it comes to air travel
and border control:

[https://gyrovague.com/2020/06/12/covid-theater-the-
upcoming-...](https://gyrovague.com/2020/06/12/covid-theater-the-upcoming-
gauntlet-of-dubious-air-travel-safety-measures/)

As a side note, I believe it's Bruce Schneier who came up with the term
"security theater".

~~~
strken
From your link:

> So odds are a 7 or 10-day quarantine would also catch 99% of infections —
> but what bureaucrat would dare break ranks and suggest so?

From [https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-
scans/2020/...](https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-
scans/2020/05/11/15/18/the-incubation-period-of-coronavirus-disease):

> 97.5% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 will exhibit symptoms by 11.5 days.

> Monitoring people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 for 14 days for development of
> symptoms should be sufficient to identify 99% of cases or more.

As far as I can tell, a 7 or 10 day quarantine would _not_ catch 99% of
infections, and there's no evidence to suggest it would.

~~~
taneq
10 days should be more than enough incubation time to produce a positive test
result if infected. A 10-day quarantine _followed by blanket testing in order
to leave quarantine_ would eradicate the virus.

~~~
9nGQluzmnq3M
Quarantine plus test is SOP in many places including Singapore and Victoria
(Australia), but everybody seems to be sticking to the 14-day rule.

------
spodek
Another side effect: insane amounts of pollution and litter.

~~~
fiblye
That's my main concern too.

Right when people started taking plastic pollution seriously and progress was
beginning to be seen, suddenly everyone is wearing cheap plastic fiber masks
that litter the streets everywhere; food items are quintuple wrapped in
plastic; plastic screens are up everywhere to separate people; and cheap,
single use, hygienic items made of plastic and wrapped in plastic are being
distributed like candy.

I'm worried that it'll take decades to cut down on it again.

~~~
wahern
> food items are quintuple wrapped in plastic

I'm not sure precisely what the balance of all evidence looks like in this
particular case, but I suspect that plastic wrapping might be better able to
harbor pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2, than the skins of most fruits and
vegetable, excepting perhaps leafy greens for the obvious reason of increased
surface area.

From what research literature I have read over the years (regarding cutting
boards, Influenza, Ebola, SARS, etc), it's my understanding that in general
pathogens of all types survive longer or at the very least remain functionally
transmissible longer on non-porous surfaces. Not just longer, but
_significantly_ longer, such as to make it a worthwhile consideration from a
health & safety perspective where such a vector matters--which is probably
rarely if ever. Even waxed fruits and vegetables might be better in this
regard than plastic. If people prefer packaging to mitigate contact
transmission (e.g. when people inspect loose items), brown paper bagging is
the best route in lieu of some expensive, synthetic micromaterial.

I realize the packaging is to soothe paranoid shoppers, and plastic is the
easiest way to do that. But perhaps someday the public will be educated enough
to be more discerning regarding what plausibly helps and what doesn't,
notwithstanding the lack of any substantive need.

~~~
fiblye
That's the reasoning behind people recommending wooden cutting boards over
plastic. Supposedly, bacteria just stick in the little crevices made by every
cut in a plastic board and remain there, while they end up dessicated or
absorbed by wooden cutting boards.

I think people already have a habit of washing down fresh fruits and
vegetables because they're assumed to be dirty to some extent. I think when
people eat things from a plastic package, they assume it to be sanitary. Most
people probably aren't washing down chip bags before opening them and sticking
their hands inside. They probably aren't doing it with wrapped apples either.

------
js2
Dupe, and why was this submitted via archive.org?
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23966727](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23966727)

~~~
dang
We've changed the url from
[https://web.archive.org/web/20200727181916/https://www.theat...](https://web.archive.org/web/20200727181916/https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/scourge-
hygiene-theater/614599/) above.

Submitters: please post original sources. This is in the guidelines:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html)

