
Ask HN: Need help calculating Covid-19 growth - NeedHelpCorona
My so called &quot;rich first world country&quot; decided to stop counting new cases once they were caught with their pants down after a 90% growth in a single day.<p>I generally don&#x27;t care about their excuses, but I need to know how to actually calculate growth based on past data and other variables.<p>I recall seeing something that you could use population number, previous cases and growth to figure out how long until a certain % of the population was infected, but I can&#x27;t seem to find that.<p>We live in the city center surrounded by bars and restaurant and this Friday they were still crowded and even had a queue outside.<p>Me and the missus have quarantined ourselves with food and entertainment, but need to figure out when most might have recovered from it.
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tastroder
I somewhat doubt that it makes sense to apply this on an invididual level but
this Wolfram group lists a few resources and models
[https://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/1872608](https://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/1872608)
e.g.
[https://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/1896178](https://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/1896178)
if you really want to plug in your country / county level data. Especially
given the dynamic nature of responses we currently see many of these models
can only provide a really broad abstraction and will not be a reliable
indicator when you personally are not affected anymore. With the current
information on this outbreak it is pretty unlikely that full voluntary self
quarantine can be upheld until "it's over" (you might live in a bunker, in
that case replace "can be upheld" with "makes rational sense for the majority
of the population").

