
2015 Gates Annual Letter - nichodges
http://www.gatesnotes.com/2015-Annual-Letter
======
chime
1\. Wiping out major diseases - brings tears to my eyes knowing that GF,
Carter and other foundations will permanently get rid of so many horrible
diseases.

2\. African crop yield - If US can grow 159 bushels of corn per acre, and
African countries are currently at 29, why is the 15 year goal for African
countries only 48 bushels per acre instead of somewhere close to the US? Is
that because of tech-transfer difficulties or rather the soil/environment?

3\. Mobile banking - Wish US would get on with it too. All the problems he
listed apply to the poor in US too. There is no way for me to immediately send
$100 to anyone in the US without resorting to BTC or wire-transfers. Even with
[https://www.clearxchange.com/](https://www.clearxchange.com/) it still takes
2-3 days.

4\. Software for education - Couldn't agree more. However, I'm still not sure
if we've achieved the correct "global education" format yet. Check out these
two KA links: [https://www.khanacademy.org/humanities/becoming-
modern/roman...](https://www.khanacademy.org/humanities/becoming-
modern/romanticism/romanticism-in-france/a/ingres-portrait-of-madame-rivire)
and [https://www.khanacademy.org/humanities/art-history-
basics/Ar...](https://www.khanacademy.org/humanities/art-history-
basics/Art-1010/v/renaissance-art-introductoin) \- the first reads like a dull
Wikipedia page with nested commenting for interaction and the other is a droll
Youtube edutainment video. Is this really going to help a 16 year old in
Vietnam, Mongolia, or Sierra Leone learn about Art History especially if they
cannot understand the accents or localized references? I'm not suggesting that
every video or text be translated/localized but before we aim for better
software, we should at least figure out the format first. What if you are 12
year old and want to learn the same topic? What if you are 34 with two degrees
in sciences? If online education was space exploration, we are in the Wright-
brothers stage, decades from even Wernher von Braun stage. Instead of every
major university just uploading their video lectures and syllabi online, I'd
love to see someone try to create a real global school (non-commercial) that
presents the education material fit for each learner. I don't mean tests like
what KA is doing but the course material itself.

~~~
k-mcgrady
>> "There is no way for me to immediately send $100 to anyone in the US
without resorting to BTC or wire-transfers."

Not sure specifically what you mean by wire transfers but in the UK I can open
my banks app (or websites), enter the sort code and account number of a person
and instantly transfer them money from my account for no charge. Is this not
possible in the US?

~~~
scottlilly
There is also the scenario where someone may not be able to open a bank
account due to an extremely bad credit history, or not being able to meet
minimum balance requirements (or have to incur relatively heavy 'service fees'
to maintain an account with a low balance). The current mainstream alternative
is money transfer services that charge a hefty percentage for transfers.

[http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/12/pf/fdic-bank-
accounts/](http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/12/pf/fdic-bank-accounts/)

~~~
rahimnathwani
The GP was referring to the UK, where even someone with 'an extremely bad
credit history' can get a bank account:
[http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/banking/basic-bank-
accounts](http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/banking/basic-bank-accounts)

~~~
ZoFreX
Speaking from experience, it can get so bad you can't even open one of them.
You also can't open one if you don't have a fixed address, AFAIK.

------
yRetsyM
A little off topic but would love to know more about the platform/tech behind
his site. My casual observations sees: Azure, New Relic, FB/Twitter
integrations. Perhaps some scss/sass? Ruby or .Net?

~~~
Hytosys
[http://i.imgur.com/CC6CNf3.png](http://i.imgur.com/CC6CNf3.png)

------
aramadia
I'm skeptical online education will have any significant impact at an
elementary school level, especially when you consider the cost effectiveness
of such a strategy. If were talking about video lectures (especially live) you
need to figure out how to hook up reliable internet into these schools. Most
of the internet access projects are just enough to get wikipedia loaded. And
not to mention the cost of the hardware itself, a tablet per student isn't
even feasible in western public schools.

~~~
ggreer
_Have you seen Batman (the Chris Nolan movie)? It 's pretty frickin' awesome.
You've got incredible special effects, great script, multiple takes, amazing
actors, and great sound and it's very engaging. ... If instead of having
movies- say we're going to have that script performed by the local town
troupe. So in every small town in America (if movies didn't exist), they would
have to then recreate _The Dark Knight _. You know, with home-sewn costumes
and jumping across the stage and not getting their lines quite right, and not
really looking like the people in the movie, and no special effects or
anything. That would suck! It would be terrible. That 's education._

\-- Elon Musk (chatting with Sal Khan)[1]

I think there's a ton of improvement to be had in the education space. People
have used technology to make many forms of entertainment more compelling, but
education is pretty similar to half a century ago: classrooms, teachers,
lectures, etc. A lot of the stagnation is due to bureaucratic and legislative
inertia, which isn't such a big problem in countries lacking widespread public
schooling.

With regards to cost and bandwidth issues: Remember, Gates's predictions/goals
are for the next 15 years. Technology is only going to get cheaper and faster.
In 2000, iPods didn't exist. In 2030, even low-end tablets will put current
hardware to shame.

1\.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDwzmJpI4io#t=2280](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDwzmJpI4io#t=2280)

~~~
marak830
In fact in Japan atm I use a starboard (basicly a large projector with touch
capabilities), in my classroom. If things like this became more common, I'm
sure education could be shaken up a lot.

It is an excellent medium to teach a class withe.

~~~
motoboi
I watched some classes on MIT OpenCourseWare and was blown by the fact that
they use chalk boards (!). I mean, one of the best universities in the world
use the same tools as mine: a teacher, chairs and a chalk board. Don't that
make us think about how important is the culture, the environment of those
famous institutions. It's not about tools, it's all about people.

------
afoot
I'm always so inspired when I see these. The idea that it's possible to make
such a significant impact in the world by taking a smarter, more focused
approach is so simple but so powerful. Some of the cheap and practical steps
around saving newborn lives are exactly the kind of actions that have a huge
impact. Although Gates clearly has significant resources, it makes me feel
that I too can help, and that's really important.

------
dignick
I love the positivity of his messages and the work he is doing to improve the
lives of those that need it most. His call for us to become global citizens is
greatly needed to tackle many of the problems we face and stop thinking,
acting and voting just for ourselves.

However, global warming is such a big and immediate issue — we have until 2017
to start reducing carbon dioxide output, after that we lock in >2C dangerous,
irreversible warming — that despite all the progress being made in developing
countries today, the effects of climate change are likely to negate much of
that work in the future.

Gates is bound by capitalist ideology, his emphasis on the need to develop a
'miracle cure' source of energy is evidence of that — we have the technology
we need to solve the problem today, but it will require a fundamental shift of
focus and wealth. We are putting profit before the place we live. We are
betting big on the miracle cure in the future. What if the miracle never
happens?

edit: I've written a post with a bit more detail and sources:
[https://shamocracy.org/2015/01/22/2015-gates-annual-
letter/](https://shamocracy.org/2015/01/22/2015-gates-annual-letter/)

~~~
chroma
Even if one accepts your claims about the severity of global warming, there's
a slight flaw in your proposal: It has zero chance of being implemented.

Reduce emissions in two years? You may as well ask everyone to breathe less.
No civilization has voluntarily reduced its resource consumption. China and
India (along with the developing world) are more than offsetting any minor
reductions by OECD countries.[1]

If the situation is as dire as you suggest, the only solution to global
warming is technological. Compared to carbon-neutral energy, fossil fuels are
cheaper and more convenient to use. Until that's not the case, CO2 emissions
will continue to increase.

1\.
[http://cdiac.ornl.gov/GCP/images/countries_co2_emissions.jpg](http://cdiac.ornl.gov/GCP/images/countries_co2_emissions.jpg)

~~~
dignick
I said begin reducing carbon dioxide output by 2017, otherwise by the IEA's
calculations our entire carbon budget will be spoken for. We have known about
this for a long time, but we have done nothing, indeed we have increased
carbon output, so no we don't have much time left.
[http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/nov/09/fossil-
fu...](http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/nov/09/fossil-fuel-
infrastructure-climate-change)

Absolutely I agree that we can't solve the problem of global warming in the
West alone, it's a global problem that needs a global solution. I do not agree
there is zero chance of it being implemented, but it will be hard work. The
problem humanity faces today is a concentration of power and control,
exhibited by the growing inequality in the world (the latest figures from
Oxfam show the top 1% now have 48% of the wealth, forecast to pass 50% next
year, and 80 people have the same wealth as 50% of the worlds population). It
is a system that is rigged against the people and environment for the purposes
of wealth generation for the few. It is a system that it's proponents truly
believe in, and who deny the reality of climate change because if they are
wrong, their whole model collapses. But things are changing, and fast.
Particularly in the UK at the moment we are seeing the rapid ascent of the
Green Party, particularly among young voters, as the population is becoming
fed up of the establishment and austerity. The Green Party's message is 'The
politics of the future doesn't have to look like the politics of the past'.

Leaving the market to solve the problem is clearly not working, we need
substantial government intervention. Things like 'polluter pays' taxation and
not allowing global trade agreements to take precedence over activities that
would produce a lower net output of carbon dioxide like localised food
production and subsidised, localised renewable energy production.

I strongly recommend reading Naomi Klein's 'This Changes Everything' for a
background on the history, current situation, future solutions and what will
happen if we don't take action.
[http://thischangeseverything.org/](http://thischangeseverything.org/)

------
seeingfurther
What Bill and Melinda are doing is amazing and quite admirable. My only
question after reading this is... Shouldn't there also be some focus on
lowering birth rates in poor areas? Am I missing something, or wouldn't that
go hand in hand toward achieving their goals?

~~~
snowwrestler
Birth rates decline as overall health and living standards increase. This is
an empirical relationship (we've observed it but don't know the exact
mechanisms), but it has been quite consistent in societies throughout the
world for decades now.

This is the reason that the 1970s overpopulation doom scenarios never came to
pass. And it is the reason that foundations today focus on improving health
and living standards, rather than birth rates specifically.

~~~
speleding
That has been true since the 1970's but unfortunately the latest numbers paint
a very different picture. Birth rates are not dropping anymore in recently-
rich countries according to the UN
([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growt...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth))

------
iamdanfox
Are there opportunities for hackers to volunteer in projects like mobile
payments? I feel like donating a bit of development time to the right project
has the potential to have a bigger impact than just donating money.

~~~
hgh
Hi there, I work for a mobile payments company called Zoona (check us out at
[http://www.ilovezoona.com](http://www.ilovezoona.com)). Our tech team is
based in Cape Town but all of our actual operations are in Zambia, Malawi and
expanding to a few more countries soon. Getting some help on the dev would be
awesome, and I'd be happy to chat more about what might make sense.

Feel free to get in touch and we can see if something makes sense -
hans@ilovezoona.com.

(Same goes for anyone else reading this! Depending on your interests, may be
able to link you to a few other projects doing some interesting stuff)

------
chris-at
Great work!

But the presentation is awful. Why do sites feel the need to hijack my scroll
wheel?

~~~
tim333
Yeah, resorted to Clearly

------
TeMPOraL
Wait... where's the letter? All I get is a box that asks for my e-mail.

~~~
icebraining
Weird, I didn't get that box. Have you tried closing it and scrolling?

~~~
TeMPOraL
Surprisingly, the box is gone now.

But first few times I visited the site, I got just a subscription box _as main
page content_. I actually typed in a random e-mail, got "Thanks!" as a reply,
and that was all.

------
rmason
I think Gates needs to find the next Norman Borlaug, whether it be at a
university or in industry and fund him or her to set up a research facility in
an African country.

------
tempodox
Concerning the form of this presentation, if it were gauged in WTFs per
minute, this one would score a rather high count.

------
karatehammer
I love it when the richest people in the entire history of civilization tell
me how much they are helping us!

~~~
mehwoot
_I love it when the richest people in the entire history of civilization_

By dollar value, maybe, but adjusted for inflation they aren't even close.

~~~
adventured
Gates is richer than Rockefeller was, by a factor of upwards of two. So yeah,
he's definitely among the richest in world history. He's also easily the
richest private citizen (non-government, non-military) in history.

Rockefeller's wealth peaked at between $1 and $2 billion, according to the
best records on him, including his biographies and records from the
Rockefeller Archives. Inflation adjusting those numbers based on the 1890-1910
time frame in which the dollar was extremely stable for the most part, you get
between $20 (20x$1b) and $60 (30x$2b) billion, depending on if you want to use
the low ball on his wealth plus a low ball on the inflation adjustment vs the
opposite end of the spectrum.

~~~
doughj3
Forbes has estimated Rockefeller's wealth at greater than 300 billion dollars
(adjusted to 2006).

[http://www.businessinsider.com/richest-people-in-
history-201...](http://www.businessinsider.com/richest-people-in-
history-2010-8?tru=HV6w6#1-john-d-rockefeller-20)

~~~
tomhigg
Better explanation: "John D. Rockefeller, who became the world’s first
billionaire in 1916, a sum equal to $30 billion today, adjusted for inflation.
In a sense, this underestimates the oil scion’s wealth. By the time
Rockefeller died in 1937, his assets equaled 1.5% of America’s total economic
output. To control an equivalent share today would require a net worth of
about $340 billion dollars, more than four times that of Bill Gates, currently
the world’s richest man."
[http://www.forbes.com/sites/carlodonnell/2014/07/11/the-
rock...](http://www.forbes.com/sites/carlodonnell/2014/07/11/the-rockefellers-
the-legacy-of-historys-richest-man/)

