
Coronavirus and the blindness of authoritarianism - black6
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/02/coronavirus-and-blindness-authoritarianism/606922/
======
themgt
This seems a little hypocritical given that the US still doesn't have an
adequate SARS-2 testing regime in place, and will almost certainly see the
first real rise in cases once a cluster of locally transmitted infections
start becoming severely ill/dying, as in Italy/Iran. Calling China blind while
we still have our eyes shut. It is possible we'll luck out and escape Wuhan-
level consequences, but I'm predicting this piece may age very badly.

~~~
davidw
I'm "curious" how things will work out in the US when people

1) show up to work at, say, McDonalds even if they're not feeling great.

2) wait until the last minute to seek health care because it's expensive

And by "curious" I mean "extremely worried".

Edit: I'm certainly no expert though; it'd be nice to consider some actual
data about how these things spread (is the flu a similar enough model?). Maybe
the above points don't really matter that much. I'm still worried in any
event. Several relatives-in-law live in one of the affected areas of Italy.

~~~
dcolkitt
> 1) show up to work at, say, McDonalds even if they're not feeling great.

The US generally has extremely strict guidelines regarding food safety and
hygiene. In terms of food safety, America ranks above all but the Nordic
countries.[1]

I can assure you that American restaurants absolutely will not tolerate a food
worker with an active upper respiratory infection. If anything US restaurants
are more likely to order a worker to stay home, because unlike Europe they
generally don't have to give hourly workers paid sick time.

[1]
[https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Index](https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Index)

~~~
dragontamer
While this is true, what worries me about Coronavirus is its weeks-long
incubation period, where you can spread the virus even without any symptoms
attached.

The obvious "dude is coughing / sneezing" case simply doesn't apply to
Coronavirus. It can spread long before you show any symptoms.

\-----------

There are even cases where people are passing the virus on without ever
actually getting, or feeling, sick. [https://www.sciencealert.com/researchers-
confirmed-patients-...](https://www.sciencealert.com/researchers-confirmed-
patients-can-transmit-the-coronavirus-without-showing-symptoms)

Coronavirus is deadly enough to kill some people, but weak enough that some
people's immune system represses it entirely.

In some ways, something like Ebola is easier to control. Because everyone who
gets sick with Ebola actually shows symptoms (because Ebola is so deadly).

~~~
davidw
As above/below though, that goes for pretty much any country and if it's the
biggest factor in contagion, then maybe we won't see large differences between
wealthy-ish countries.

------
balola
It's more about not wanting to take responsibility at all levels than not
knowing it. Though party mouthpieces love this angle to spin the supreme
leader as kind-hearted whenever possible.

Cersorship serves to make the people feel good, but general hospitals are
almost all state-owned thus the infomation flow is not that impeded.

The system punishes those who take risks (right or wrong) and rewards those
who obey orders, display loyalty and don't make mistakes.

In this case, low level officials waited for orders, the national level agency
went to the site fairly early on but they too waited, here's the catch, high
officials and Xi don't want to make mistakes too. The power dynamics were on
display when the governor knew he's about to be sacrificed so he went on a
high profile live interview to accuse Beijing of inaction, couple days later,
Xi released his own version of the story, replaced the local boss with his old
sport, gaining even tighter grip on local governments.

Every body in this system avoids doing things with the slightest possibility
of harming their political careers, but doubles down on the things that make
them politically safe (heavy-handed/draconian lockdown measures).

------
darawk
It seems like in a situation like this authoritarianism is a strength and a
weakness. On the one hand, you get fed deceptive information by your local
officials, but on the other hand, you have the power to enforce city-scale
quarantines rather effectively.

It's not immediately clear to me which of these is actually more important,
but it doesn't seem quite as simple as this article is portraying it to be.

~~~
holri
Why should a democracy not be able the enforce a city-scale quarantine
effectively? Italy did it on a smaller scale in no time yesterday. I do not
see why this should not work for example for Milano too.

~~~
darawk
> Why should a democracy not be able the enforce a city-scale quarantine
> effectively?

Because decision making here is less centralized. People have rights, and they
will agitate about them. It's not clear where the governmental authority to
quarantine an entire city would come from in say, the US. It might be
constitutionally challenged, people would get mad and sue. None of that
happens in China.

~~~
gdubs
According to Wikipedia the authority comes from H.R. 5122 signed into law by
G.W. Bush in 2006, which “gave the president the power to declare martial law
and to take command of the National Guard units of each state without the
consent of state governors.”

------
acoderhasnoname
Japan, Korea and Italy are Authoritarianism as well?? They are losing grip
even after Chinese and WHO warned them.

~~~
koheripbal
The WHO has been repeating the ridiculous lines that travel restrictions don't
work and that China is doing a wonderful job containing the virus.

~~~
acoderhasnoname
Italy applied travel bans long time ago, apparently didn't work?

~~~
yasp
Italy banned direct flights from China, but not indirect flights.

------
m0zg
As my wife and I were talking about this, one thing that came to mind was the
Chernobyl disaster, which both of us saw on TV as kids when it unfolded. The
CPSU also initially attempted to sweep it under the rug, and for about 3 days
you could only find out about it from e.g. Voice of America broadcasts (which
people would get on shortwave radio in regions which weren't covered by
jamming).

After a few days it became clear even to the party bosses that this is not an
ordinary disaster, and it can't be swept under the rug entirely, so we got
some reporting from the site of the disaster, mixed with a heavy dose of
propaganda. They'd show trucks, workers, views of the reactor from a
helicopter (which was probably getting a bunch of radioactive dust in the
air), speak of heroism of those who tried to douse the fires in spite
radiation and later died of radiation poisoning, stuff like that.

What they did not do, however, is make any attempt at explaining the magnitude
of the disaster, so while the populace was pacified by "reporting" we didn't
really know its true effects until many years later.

------
newfeatureok
I'm not sure I agree with this article - there is plenty of evidence to
suggest that China knew about C19 well ahead of the media, but choose to
ignore it to save face and/or not create panic.

~~~
metalgearsolid
Isn't that the point though? That sweeping things under the rug in order to
save face is what allows these issues to spiral out of control.

~~~
FooBarWidget
But did they really sweep things under the rug or is that just what people
casually like to say without fact checking? Here is the coronavirus timeline:
[https://youtu.be/kO5EXjFKE7U](https://youtu.be/kO5EXjFKE7U)

~~~
exposay
Nathan Rich is notorious for spreading Chinese communist propaganda. You
should post a better source.

~~~
FooBarWidget
You say it is propaganda but do you have an argument against his actual
claims? Can you point out factual inaccuracies or omitted facts that are
relevant?

------
sub7
I'm all for hating on authoritarians but this is nonsense. If anything,
authoritarianism allowed China to build facilities and implement ridiculous
quarantine measures in record time.

~~~
koheripbal
It really depends how much you care about your parents/grandparents. If the
projections out of Harvard today are correct and 40-70% of the world
population ultimately contracts the virus, and if the mortality rates of those
over 60 are correct - then there's a very real chance that many of the people
on this thread will be attending the funerals of family members within the
next 18-24 months.

The internet is full of people in the younger demographic, so it's not
surprising they are not overly concerned.

~~~
sub7
>> projections out of Harvard today

Link?

------
rossdavidh
While I agree with the point about suppressing dissent being a vulnerability
because it suppresses information, I don't think this is something democracies
are so great at. The UK's response to mad cow disease, for example, does not
look much better, if as good.

The flupandemic in 1918 was not handled appreciably better in the democracies
than it was in the empires.

People in authority reacting too slowly to an epidemic, is not unique to
authoritarian states.

------
billfruit
This and another article today on the Atlantic seems to be implying that this
type of epidemics are better dealt with in democratic countries. To me, that
isn't that much clear, to see how the AIDS was handled in the United States
during the 80's.

Even democratic governemnts are succesptible to staging coverups to save face.

~~~
gph
Was that really a coverup or willful neglect due to a cultural atmosphere that
was massively homophobic? From what I understand the Reagan administration was
reluctant to put resources into something that was considered a "gay mans
disease", really wouldn't have played well with the majority of the electorate
at the time.

~~~
ryanmercer
>From what I understand the Reagan administration was reluctant to put
resources into something that was considered a "gay mans disease"

indeed, let us not forget that "AIDS" was originally called "GRID", "Gay-
related immune deficiency" and was also called things like "gay cancer" and
"gay plague". It was unfortunate events like Ryan White's infection [1] that
started to raise awareness for HIV/AIDS.

[1] -
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_White#Ryan_White_and_publ...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_White#Ryan_White_and_public_perception_of_AIDS)

------
nomorecensors
Indeed. See When Fury Overcomes Fear: www.chinafile.com/reporting-
opinion/viewpoint/viral-alarm-when-fury-overcomes-fear

------
almost_usual
Seems to be working pretty well in Vietnam.

------
drummer
This is an excellent article also showing the danger of censorship, which on
HN happens via the voting and flagging system as well as shadow bans. People
become afraid to speak their minds and you end up with dangerous conformity.

~~~
cannotspeakwc
Yes.

> One could go so far as to say that from the highest echelon to the very
> bottom of the system, this lot represent the worst political team to have
> run China since 1978. That is why I believe that it is imperative that the
> nation act on and truly put into practice [Article 35 of the
> Constitution][1]. That is to say [we ourselves should advance Five Key
> Demands]:

> 1\. Lift the ban on independent media and publishing;

> 2\. Put an end to the secret police surveillance of the Internet and allow
> people their right to freedom of speech so they can express themselves with
> a clear conscience;

> 3\. Allow citizens to enjoy their right to demonstrate as well as the
> freedom of assembly and association;

> 4\. Respect the basic universal rights of our citizens, in particular their
> right to vote in open elections.

From an [essay][2] by Xu Zhangrun, translated and annotated by Geremie R.
Barmé.

[1]:
[http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/2007-11/...](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/2007-11/15/content_1372964.htm)

[2]: [https://www.chinafile.com/reporting-
opinion/viewpoint/viral-...](https://www.chinafile.com/reporting-
opinion/viewpoint/viral-alarm-when-fury-overcomes-fear)

------
gdubs
Hopefully we’ll get lucky with this one and it will “only” be a bit worse than
the flu. We don’t know. The risks lie in the unknown.

But, if this thing (or some other thing down the road) is bad, then won’t
democracies essentially be faced with the decision to suspend liberty in a
martial-law type situation? Effectively becoming (at least temporarily)
authoritarian?

If not, what’s the Democratic model for addressing a situation requiring mass
quarantine? Seems like a good question to ask _before_ facing such a crisis,
even if it seems outlandish or fringe.

~~~
ryanmercer
I don't think this will be 'that bad' in the end, I think far worse will come
in the future though without a doubt. The Chinese growth seems to be mostly
just a result of people living in rather large concentrations with generally
poor hygeine. The South Korean spread seems to largely stem from a single
religious group (and it appears they are a doomsday cult that may be
attempting to spread the virus intentionally [1][2][3]).

Ok, I _hope_ this won't be bad. I'm getting married in 89 days and in my
religion the weddings are at one of our temples... we've closed 2 in Asia
indefinitely already due to the virus and I'm _hoping_ it doesn't get bad here
in the United States and result in the same. I'm already looking at a punk
concert I have tickets for the week of my birthday next month and thinking
"yeahhh, maybe I should just eat the cost and not go" but it also has my
fiance and I a bit on edge for our wedding and what the earliest we can get
the marriage license and other necessary paperwork so that if things start to
get bed we can look at all the temples near us and schedule a different date
within a few days to make sure we are married before we see any potential
closures. _sigh_

A thought I've had is I wonder how much genes have to do with the severity of
this. I have not looked at the data for a racial component, nor am I remotely
qualified to, but I wonder if there isn't some genetic variable in Asian
populations that is causing this to be more severe. Perhaps there is something
there that will see a less severe response in other populations. _shrugs_ just
throwing an idea out there.

[1] - [https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/south-
kore...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/south-korean-
coronavirus-spike-linked-to-doomsday-sect-with-messianic-
leader/2020/02/21/cd3e1220-54c2-11ea-9e47-59804be1dcfb_story.html)

[2] - [https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-24/how-coronavirus-
hit-s...](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-24/how-coronavirus-hit-south-
korea/11993682)

[3] - [https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-
latest...](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-latest-south-
korea-super-spreader-cult-church-diamond-princess-uk-a9348646.html)

~~~
gdubs
So, just one person to another on the internet: best of luck to you both, and
congratulations on your upcoming wedding :) I remember very well the stress of
wedding planning. In the end we eloped!

~~~
ryanmercer
Thanks! This is going to be an interesting year for me. I hit 7 months sober
last week which is easily the longest sober stretch I've had since the first
time I had alcohol around age 15, I'm getting married (never thought that
would happen) and she makes more than me plus adding her income will finally
give me some breathing room to start to entertain pursuing some sort of
training/education other than a degree (college just isn't for me) to try and
finally improve my situation as I move into being 35, we plan to try and have
a house this year which will be a huge thing and nice to have space I can
finally make mine... just gotta get through a potential epidemic that might
kill people i know and/or leave me unemployed since I work in international
freight _wince_.

Going to be an interesting year one or more ways.

~~~
metabagel
Congrats on your sobriety! I stopped drinking 4 years ago, because it tended
to make me depressed and anxious. I’m very happy with my decision.

~~~
ryanmercer
Thank you!

------
11thEarlOfMar
Claims unequivocally that the virus originated in the wet market. However,
Chinese scientists are saying it possibly did originate from a Wuhan lab:

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZC0gww2yznI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZC0gww2yznI)

