
Concerns for global spread of Zika mean Rio de Janeiro Olympics must not proceed - bd
http://harvardpublichealthreview.org/off-the-podium-why-rios-2016-olympic-games-must-not-proceed/
======
ChicagoBoy11
This article is idiotic if the main reason for cancelling the game is actually
some "global spread" of Zika.

Rio is not some city in the middle of nowhere from which no flights are coming
in and out of, and now suddenly this massive international influx of visitors
will come in -- it is a world-class city, a financial hub of the largest
country in the continent.

If we take London 2012 as a benchmark, estimates there are that the olympics
yielded a 13% increase in foreign visitors from the previous summer. And that
is London, a place where access from other destinations is cheaper, the
infrastructure better, and a lot more appealing to U.S. visitors (due to some
of the things cited above). It is completely reasonable to expect that the
delta in Rio should be roughly the same, if not smaller.

The fact is that the"impact" on travel due to the Olympics will be negligible
in a city like Rio -- and the economic impact is CERTAINLY negative, unless
you are drinking the Kool-Aid of organizers.

I'm fine with cancelling the games, but claiming that not doing so will lead
to a much riskier global health situation than the one we are already living
is hogwash.

~~~
shaggy
Yes, Rio sees many visitors regularly. What Rio does not see is an influx of
visitors from nearly every country on earth. It's that spread that is the
problem. The financial impact on hosting the games is already negative for
host cities. That's no longer debatable without ignoring fact. Your argument
that all the experts studying the Zika epidemic and drawing the ever more
cemented conclusion that this is a very serious problem are wrong is what is
hogwash.

~~~
soneca
Actually RJ does have an influx of visitors from nearly every country on
earth.

source (see page 97):
[http://www.dadosefatos.turismo.gov.br/export/sites/default/d...](http://www.dadosefatos.turismo.gov.br/export/sites/default/dadosefatos/anuario/downloads_anuario/Anuario_Estatistico_de_Turismo_2016_Ano_base_2015_Excel.pdf)

~~~
VLM
So sending an even larger influx into an outbreak is good... why exactly?

Its like arguing that some subset of people drive drunk right now, therefore
it would be a great idea if more people would drive drunk this summer.

~~~
untog
No, it's like arguing that some people get into car accidents, so more people
driving is a bad idea.

~~~
SilasX
Devil's advocate: I think the argument is that the damage of the disease is
disproportional to the people exposed, because the increased _pairs_ of
interactions are what can make it spread fast.

So doubling the number of people congregated in Rio won't just double the
danger, but quadruple it. If car accidents obeyed a similar dynamic -- where
they increase (much) more than proportionally to the number of vehicle-miles
driven, we should be similarly more cautious about additional drivers.

~~~
marcosdumay
Aren't those pairs composed of a foreigner and a contaminated native? One of
those populations is staying constant.

------
ehmuidifici
Brazilian here, Ive been in Rio a couple of times (living in Sao Paulo right
now, who also has problems w/Aedes Aegypti):

Come to Brazil if you wish, but take care. The Aedes Aegypti mosquito is all
around and can spread not only Zika, but Chikungunya (kindly named "chico
cunha") and Dengue.

Make good use of insect repellent, watch your stuff when walking on beaches
(don't forget robbers and thieves) and think twice about trusting someone.

As someone said before, every city in the world has its problems and brazilian
cities have them also.

Personally, I will not go to Olympics just because hotel prices on Rio
skyrocketed and are almost impractical.

~~~
Chris2048
> every city in the world has its problems and brazilian cities have them
> also.

At the same magnitude?

------
apalmer
It should be considered, dont know if it makes sense but the pros and cons
should be weighed and respected international health organizations should
weigh in.

Overall though, think given the fact the facilities have not been fully
constructed, the Brazilian government is on the verge of collapse, and the
risks of being a major disease vector is plausible...

Should definitely consider delay or moving

~~~
zodPod
I've thought this too. They pick some of the weirdest places to try to host
this stuff. I guess they're trying to bring the areas up or something but if
the place can't handle daily life what makes anyone think they can handle a
big event like this?

~~~
icebraining
How is Rio a "weird place"? They're in a bad situation right now, as any city
with an outbreak of a virus and with a political crisis would be, but it's
major world metropolis of 12M people with plenty of international business
visitors and a GDP of 200 billion USD. They accommodate 900k tourists during
Carnival alone.

~~~
exDM69
I presume that the parent is referring to the locations of the Olympic venues
around Rio, which are scattered around the outskirts of the city.

------
wyldfire
Ever since the news of Zika causing microcephaly came up I have been wondering
whether it's a net benefit to humanity/homeostasis if we were to exterminate
Aedis Aegypti. Can Zika spread among humans already? It would seem like a huge
risk to the future of humanity if this infectious disease interferes with
reproduction.

What's the worst-case scenario for letting Aedis Aegypti live? Is it better
than the worst-case scenario for exterminating the species?

~~~
maxerickson
Zika is a big threat to fetuses that are gestating while the mother is
infected. After a woman gains immunity, there is little threat to any babies
she might carry.

So it is a very serious concern at the moment, but it is not any sort of
existential problem. It will likely not even be a medium term problem (there
is early research towards vaccines).

~~~
smellf
> After a woman gains immunity, there is little threat to any babies she might
> carry.

It is way too early to make that claim.

You're also ignoring the Guillain–Barré cases that are suspected to have been
caused by Zika.

------
bhouston
I was wondering about whether this would happen. I am not enough of an expert
to make a call on this either way of course, but if experts decided this was
the right call would it even be possible to cancel/reschedule the Olympics?
Imagine the financial impact on Rio.

~~~
shaggy
It's pretty well known and well documented at this point that the host cities
for olympic games see no financial benefit at all, and in fact they lose
money. Most recently, look at the Sochi games, which cost $50+bn. There is a
0% chance that the games brought in that much money. The entities making money
are the IOC and the broadcast companies, NBC being the primary. It would be
sad if the games were cancelled, but at the risk of a global pandemic it's
hard to see how people can argue in favor anymore.

~~~
scott_s
Agreed that the Olympic games do not have financially benefit the host city.
But, Rio has probably _already spent_ a lot of money on the games. Not hosting
them would probably hurt, financially, even more.

Please note I am not arguing that the Olympics should continue in Rio. We
should do what is best for world health, even if that negatively impacts Rio
financially.

------
dsfyu404ed
I wonder if the medical community is also working with the state department,
airlines and travel agencies to make sure people get a stern warning before
they buy plane tickets to Brazil and an even sterner warning when they get
back.

Considering the political forces that need to be involved in moving (or not)
the games it seems foolish to not have a safety net if "please move the games"
doesn't work.

~~~
gtirloni
The Ministry of Health in Brazil has been getting a new head of department
every few months, depending on the backstage deals the president has had to
make in order to keep her government in place. So no, I wouldn't count on any
coordinated actions being spearheaded by the government. They are pretty busy
running around like headless chickens, which means insisting in inneficient
methods to eliminate the mosquito (e.g. fuming).

Some airlines have been allowing passengers to refund tickets to areas
affected by Zika [1].

I think every decent travel agency should worry its customers that traveling
to Brazil at this time is not a good idea.

Besides the health issues, Brazil is ousting its president today and most
leftist parties and unions have vouched to stop the country with strikes,
blockades and protests. You may get stuck in a 2-hour traffic jam on your way
to the games.

1 - [http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/zika-
virus-m...](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/zika-virus-major-
airlines-refunding-tickets-to-south-america-a6839151.html)

------
S_A_P
Zika is already in Houston, Dallas and other Texas cities. I dont know if it
is tourism that brought it here or not, but it has enough transmission vectors
that its only a matter of time before its everywhere.

------
neves
What will prevent the outbreak is the weather in Rio. The Zika mosquito takes
3 to 4 weeks to reproduce [http://www.denguevirusnet.com/life-cycle-of-aedes-
aegypti.ht...](http://www.denguevirusnet.com/life-cycle-of-aedes-aegypti.html)
and it loves hot and wet weather.

The autumn in Rio is the coldest and driest in a long time
[http://g1.globo.com/rio-de-janeiro/noticia/2016/03/outono-
no...](http://g1.globo.com/rio-de-janeiro/noticia/2016/03/outono-no-rio-sera-
mais-frio-e-tera-menos-chuvas-esse-ano.html) When the Olympics arrive, the
mosquito will be in their lowest population count.

If you consider that the Olympics tourists are rich ones, that will spend most
of their times in air conditioned environments, the risk is really very low.

------
DannyBee
Serious question: Has anyone seen an article or study about the microcephaly
effects on pregnancy where the main population studied was not in brazil?

I have yet to see a study that links it to microcephaly for anyone who has not
been in brazil for a long time. I realize the mosquito isn't common, but
brazil also does things like: "secretly spray tons and tons of pesticide on
their populus", etc.

Given these are all correlative studies, i'd love to see something from a
country where there aren't a _ton_ of possible other variables.

(especially given zika has been around and even common _forever_ and it's only
now that this seems to be an issue)

You know, before the tourism economies of all of these other countries are
completely destroyed.

~~~
rubidium
Yes, microcephaly from Zika has been detected in many south american
countries. CDC supports the link, as does scientific consensus:
[http://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2016/s0413-zika-
microcepha...](http://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2016/s0413-zika-
microcephaly.html)

It's the fat cats who don't want to move/postpone the Olympics most. They have
the most to lose.

~~~
Tycho
The evidence is not compelling:
[https://twitter.com/WLTSchirano/status/728917519457787904](https://twitter.com/WLTSchirano/status/728917519457787904)

Why are there hardly any cases in Colombia?

------
transfire
What? Are they planning a culling, on which they will blame Zika and the
Olympics? Otherwise, this make zero sense.

Despite all the hype, Zika is not the end of the world. Most people who get it
hardly notice and get over it in rather short order just as one gets over a
cold.

~~~
InglouriousG
What about the microcephalic babies born to people infected with Zika? That's
not exactly a hardly noticeable side effect...

------
davesque
So does "fold" just mean "times"? I always thought it meant 2^x times.

~~~
jakub_g
Yep, N-fold = N times

[http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/tenfold](http://www.merriam-
webster.com/dictionary/tenfold)

[http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/twofold](http://www.merriam-
webster.com/dictionary/twofold)

~~~
davesque
I guess I got confused since it seems to be used for emphasis, as though
tenfold really meant _more_ than 10x. Anyway, glad to get that straight.

~~~
lexhaynes
That's cute, haha!

------
mc32
That's not going to happen -- not when their economy is in a nosedive and they
are embroiled in impeachment proceedings.

At most they'll spray and fumigate the skeeters for the few weeks the
activities take place and then go back to "normal".

------
ck2
Could people accidentally bring back live mosquitoes in their luggage and such
that are carriers?

If so, could spread the world at lightning speed.

I think there is also concern for the athletes in that the water is absolutely
filthy there.

~~~
marcosdumay
The mosquito already lives in every place the climate does not kill it.

It's the spread of the virus that's scaring everybody.

------
askyourmother
Come to Rio - watch the Olympians swim in the very dirty water they promised
to clean but didn't! Catch zika, then fill out the police and insurance forms
after you get robbed! Seriously though, Rio is a very very dangerous place to
visit even for brasileros, let alone tourists, and the zika and chinkungya
virus outbreaks are not helping either.

Watch it on TV, from far away.

~~~
blowski
As a middle-income tourist who has had multiple holidays in Rio, the closest
I've come to being robbed was by a taxi driver that wanted $200 to travel from
Corcovado to Pao de Acucar.

Seriously, it's like any other city in the world. If you walk around a dodgy
area talking on an iPhone, by yourself, especially late at night, then you're
asking for trouble. Be sensible and cautious, and Rio is a lovely place to go
on holiday.

EDIT: I guess I'm attracted to cities with higher crime rates.

~~~
cven714
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=if6GLohPq8k](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=if6GLohPq8k)

Not that incidents like this don't occur in other cities in the world, but it
shows that avoiding dodgy areas at night might not be enough.

~~~
matwood
That video is pretty bad. One, it looks like the same kids over and over so
the cops clearly do not care. Two, I was wondering what the gun laws were
there until some guy chased them with a hand gun. If someone is looking to go
have some fun fighting it seems like walking around with a cardboard iPhone
might be the ticket. I'm only sort of kidding. I know if some kid grabbed my
wife while we were walking down the street there would be a fight.

The only other place I have seen it like the above is the gypsy kids in Rome.
Even then though they were more slight of hand pick pockets than the blatant
assault in the video.

~~~
blowski
My colleague had his phone stolen as he was talking on it by two guys on a
moped - that was in Bond Street, London.

~~~
toyg
Lol indeed. I witnessed a lady with huge shopping bags in Bloomsbury getting
her iPhone stolen from a _bicycle_. The guy acted like it was the most normal
thing in the world, just snatched the phone while speeding down a cycle lane.
Tons of other cyclists around, going as fast as this guy, and nobody cared.

------
tim333
It's kind of a shame that there is probably a solution to Zika sitting there
waiting for regulatory approval in Oxitec's GM mosquitoes which were first
successfully trialed in 2009. Maybe after another one or two million people
have caught Zika they'll get around to using it.

------
sremani
I am mixed about this whole episode, at one level there is bias against
developing countries. On the other end, Brazil did not do any favors for
itself, with zika, political turmoil etc. But they did pull of a FIFA world
cup, so I am a bit more optimistic.

------
kordless
Good luck on that. People in dissonance don't want to hear about it.

------
msimpson
Thanks to this article I am now aware of a man named Dick Pound.

------
mariusz79
The show must go on.

------
ramon
Just wanted to reply to all and say: If you are afraid of Zika, Dengue or
whatever the mosquitos transmits, don't get out of your houses! I will go
after those bastards!

Best to all, Signed: The mosquito killer! :p

