
The Android Opportunity - superjohan
http://daringfireball.net/2009/08/the_android_opportunity
======
jrockway
As a recent Android convert, I am confused by all the "issues" that people
keep mentioning. Everything on my phone Just Works. When I change the color of
a calendar on Google Calendar, the color on my phone's calendar widget
changes. When I change a contact on my phone, GMail and Google Voice update
almost instantly. When I dial a number on the normal dialpad, my call is
automatically routed through Google Voice. When someone who is not in my
contacts calls me, a little message pops up with the White Pages lookup
results. (This is a third-party app.) When I feel the need to tweet a picture,
I click a button, the camera turns on, I take the picture, write some text,
and my picture and tweet are posted. When someone messages me on Google Talk,
and my computer's Jabber session is idle, my phone makes a noise and I see
their message.

I was on the train today, and wanted to catch up on HN. I read five or six
articles, and all of them rendered perfectly in the included browser.

Basically, this is what I consider an absolutely perfect phone experience. I
could not be happier, as an end user. (And as a developer, I am _really
really_ happy.)

I am just confused as to what these iPhone converts are doing. I think they
are expecting an iPhone clone instead of a completely different smartphone.

One more thing. I found this comment especially ignorant:

 _Android suffers from the same issues that have plagued Linux on the desktop
for years: the lack of integration between software and hardware, buggy and
under-featured applications, a lack of attention paid to user experience
issues. The encouraging openness and bits of innovation in Android are
overshadowed by mediocrity._

What does this even mean? I see perfect integration between my apps (and the
Google apps on my computer), and of course, the underlying OS kernel has no
effect on the user experience unless it is really bad.

~~~
jacobian
Since you've got no problems with Android, maybe you can solve mine:

\- Why does the phone crash when I try to pair with my bluetooth headset?

\- Why do all eleventy-billion of my contacts show up in the dialer instead of
the relatively small handful who've got phone numbers?

\- Why the *@#$% doesn't this thing have a proper headphone jack?

\- How do I sync music between my computer and my G1?

\- How about podcasts?

\- How do I play videos on this thing?

\- When I mark a contact as a "favorite", how do I change which phone number
gets dialed from the favorite screen?

\- Why don't I get autocompletion when I use the hardware keyboard?

\- Why does the system freeze for about a second when I rotate it?

\- Why do about 25% of the apps I have not work with the soft keyboard?

\- Why do another 25% not work in horizontal mode?

\- Where's the PDF reader?

\- Why can't I read Google documents on this thing?

Shall I continue?

~~~
nuclear_eclipse
\- Why do all eleventy-billion of my contacts show up in the dialer instead of
the relatively small handful who've got phone numbers?

Because the Dialer app is listing all of your contacts, because it serves as
both the Dialer and the Contacts app all rolled into one.

\- Why the @#$% doesn't this thing have a proper headphone jack?

Yell at HTC, not Android.

\- How do I sync music between my computer and my G1?

Plug the included USB cable into your PC. Android will pop up a notification
allowing you to choose if you want to mount the internal SD card as a drive on
the host machine. Use Finder/Nautilus/Explorer to copy music to the drive, or
Google for the proper file that tells the PC that your G1's SD card is
actually a music device so that your music apps will sync with it.

Arguably, the G1 should do this for you, but what if you put your camera's SD
card into the G1? It wouldn't know the difference, but you wouldn't want it to
label the SD card as a music player without you asking it to...

\- How about podcasts?

Get a podcast app, or see above?

\- How do I play videos on this thing?

Use the included YouTube app, or download a file-manager app (I recommend the
Linda File Manager) and click on the video from the file manager. Yes, Android
should include this type of app out of the box.

\- When I mark a contact as a "favorite", how do I change which phone number
gets dialed from the favorite screen?

Open the contact, long-press on the desired number, and select Make Default
Number.

\- Why don't I get autocompletion when I use the hardware keyboard?

Because, arguably, most people using a real keyboard don't generally need/want
auto-completion? Also because with the physical keyboard, there's no keyboard
"app" being used in the first place, which is what provides the auto-
completion you speak of.

\- Why does the system freeze for about a second when I rotate it?

Because of the way Android handles apps. When the screen rotates, Android
sends the "Stop" signal to the current activity, resets the framebuffer, and
then sends the "restart" signal to the activity, more-or-less forcing the
activity to save and load its state and rebuild the UI. This allows Android
and the application to pick up new resources or new UI layouts based on the
new conditions of the phone (new resolution, keyboard availability, etc). See
my previous comment on this: <http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=699223>

\- Why do about 25% of the apps I have not work with the soft keyboard?

Most likely because developers did some funky business under the expectation
that the user would be using Android 1.0 and/or the G1's hardware keyboard.
Please yell at developers to update their applications.

\- Why do another 25% not work in horizontal mode?

Once again, developers can specify that applications only run in certain
orientations, which can be useful in certain apps (eg, Solitaire really can't
play well in portrait mode). Yell at the developers to knock it off if you
disagree.

\- Where's the PDF reader?

I believe there's one on the Market.

\- Why can't I read Google documents on this thing?

I'm not sure why Google overlooked a native app for Docs, but they worked
relatively well through the browser, last time I tried. There are also several
"Office" apps on the Market, if you're interested...

 _Shall I continue?_

I'd be happy to answer, refute, or agree with more complaints if you can keep
them civil.

~~~
jacobian
That, my friends, is what's called "missing the forest for the trees." Yes,
every single one of my question has an easy answer. Yup, just need to install
this app or activate this hidden preference or tweak my Xorg.conf, or learn to
live with the problem...

Using this device is like the death of a thousand cuts. None are even remotely
fatal, but over time there's just a mounting list of little annoyances.
Everything's 95%; nothing Just Works. I stopped using Linux on the desktop
because I didn't want to have to be a sysadmin on my personal hardware; having
to monkey with my phone is even less my idea of a good time.

My iPhone bit the dust, so I've been using a G1 that Google graciously gave me
for free. I really want to like it! After just a couple days with it, though,
I'm nearly ready to plunk down cash for a new iPhone. Google's seriously got a
problem if they can't even get me to use their platform at the price free
(actually, I'll _save_ $200 if I stick with Android, so it's even worse).

~~~
jrockway
I can do the "death by a thousand cuts" thing to the iPhone just as easily as
you can do it to Android. Every user has different priorities.

(You also mentioned Xorg.conf. I have not had one of those for years.)

~~~
jacobian
Ah, so if the iPhone is flawed that makes all of Android's flaws go away.
Finally, I understand! Thanks!

~~~
jrockway
Actually, yes. There's a limit to what a $200 phone can do. If nobody has The
Ideal Device, you will have to choose an approximation. How those
approximations are flawed vary between devices.

------
mattmaroon
He's missing the #1 area where you can compete with Apple (at least for now)
and why I think the Palm Pre will do well: carriers. Most people, even high-
end smart phone users, choose their carrier first and their phone second.
You'd lose sight of that reading TechCrunch or Engadget too much, but talk to
people in middle America and you realize it's overwhelming. Be it due to
laziness, marketing, employer discounts, customer satisfaction, not
understanding how simple number portability has made it, whatever. I'd bet for
every person who has bought an iPhone there are 1 or 2 who at least would
consider it if it were on their network.

The Palm Pre and Android are both at a huge advantage here. That may not be
true when Apple's deal with AT&T runs up though, but for now it's easily the
biggest competitive edge available.

~~~
mechanical_fish
_the #1 area where you can compete with Apple (at least for now)_

Your qualifier here explains why Gruber doesn't dwell on this. He wants a
competitor to Apple that can succeed in the long haul, not a bunch of
scavengers who survive for another year or two, picking off the edges of the
market that Apple hasn't gotten around to steamrolling yet.

Indeed, my off-the-cuff take on the state of the market is that Apple's
carrier exclusivity is a positive _danger_ to the competition. Because it
means that the market sends all the wrong signals. You put out an iPhone
knockoff that runs on another carrier, and a bunch of people sign up. Your
product is a success! But: The reason your product is succeeding is that the
playing field isn't level. And it's non-level in a way that Apple can _fix_ ,
just as soon as the agreement with AT&T runs out.

My take on the smartphone market in the USA is that Apple's competition needs
to race to come up with a product that can survive the day when iPhones are
being offered on every carrier. Because I see no reason to believe that such a
day will not come.

~~~
mattmaroon
I'm not so sure Apple will fix this. I mean, why did Apple tether themselves
to AT&T in the first place? AT&T was a giant turd that everyone hated 2 years
ago, just like it is now. If anything it's gotten far better in that time, and
the iPhone has racked up serious sales. It wouldn't surprise me if both
parties are very happy with their relationship, and AT&T willing to concede
even more for exclusivity.

They did it because they thought they'd make more money that way, and maybe
they did, and maybe they still will. Maybe they knew they'd sell 1/2 as many
phones that way, but make 3x more per phone and therefore come out ahead, and
maybe that math hasn't changed. Certainly AT&T will cling to the iPhone the
way the Cavaliers will to LeBron.

Verizon doesn't need Apple. They'll steamroll AT&T with turds like the
Blackberry Storm if they have to because they're far and away the best network
in the U.S. and everybody loves them. Apple needs Verizon far more though,
which means they won't get anywhere near the deal there they will from AT&T in
terms of money, control, etc.

So if I had to bet (with someone who doesn't have insider info of course) I'd
say we see continued exclusivity with AT&T. I wouldn't lay odds on it, but I'd
take even money.

~~~
unalone
They partnered with AT&T because they needed a company that would let it add
things like visual voicemail to its existing system, and rolling that out with
a single company would be easier. The argument against Verizon is that Verizon
insists on adding branding to every Verizon phone, which Apple is against.

Neither Verizon nor Apple is stupid. If network choice really starts hurting
the iPhone, which it isn't because iPhone sales are insane, then Apple will
bend slightly to accommodate Verizon. If AT&T continues gaining Verizon users
on virtue of the iPhone itself, then Verizon will look for a deal with Apple.
The point of the ancestor post is that if your strategy to compete is "we're
shittier but use a different network", then you aren't focused on the product,
you're focused on making money. John Gruber is writing about product, not
about market competition.

~~~
mattmaroon
Wrong and wronger. You can't say that because the iPhone sells very well,
network choice isn't hurting it. There might be 2x as many iPhones in
consumers hands in the U.S. if they were on Verizon too, and 3x if it were on
the other majors on top. I'm clearly just making those numbers up, but they
seem reasonable.

The exclusivity was about a lot more than visual voice mail. It had to do with
sales channel and profits from ongoing contracts as well, which were probably
far larger issues and ones Verizon has absolutely no reason to cave on. And my
point was that it might be in both Verizon and Apple's best interest to not
work together.

The network is a huge part of the product when it comes to phones. A phone
that is constantly dropping calls, one of the iPhone's biggest complaints, or
out of fast data range is an inferior product through no fault of its own. In
the mobile industry by being on a better network you have a better product.

Nonetheless, the best and worst thing about capitalism is that inferior
products win all the time when the salient point of competition isn't product
"quality" as you're meaning it here. We in the tech industry love the idea of
a Google or an Apple making a better mousetrap and slaying the entrenched
competition, but the reality is that for every one story like that, there are
20 of a better product that died due to vendor lock-in, marketing, or some
other form of differentiation. Apple's been on both sides of that equation.

~~~
unalone
I didn't say network choice wasn't hurting it, Matt. I said network choice
wasn't hurting it _enough to make a difference to Apple_.

I agree that part of a product is its network. However, neither Apple nor its
competitors manufacture networks. It would be incredibly lazy to hope to make
money solely because you use one third-party network rather than another. In
this case I agree with you, it might work, but Gruber doesn't just want a
phone that makes money. He wants a phone that _competes_.

------
jsz0
Probably the single biggest growth stunting problem with the Android platform
is the lack of a good advertising campaign. Google, and the handset makers,
are allowing Apple free reign of the air waves. If you didn't follow
technology it might be easy to believe Apple is the only company selling
SmartPhones with third party apps. Google needs to spearhead the campaign and
show off a few different Android handset and some applications and generally
put their stamp of approval on it. They certainly have the money for it. The
lack of aggressiveness on the part of Google with the Android platform has
made me question their commitment to it from day one. There are many examples
of a first mover taking an insurmountable lead in an emerging market. Google
should fight now or it may be a lost cause. Apple is selling A LOT of iPhones.

~~~
Goladus
I wouldn't say advertising campaign specifically, so much as basically little
marketing campaign targeting actual phone-buyers at all. I didn't hear about
the Palm Pre via those creepy advertisements I saw a pile of tech reviews and
youtube videos for it.

------
RyanMcGreal
A well-written piece from an avowed fan of Apple. What makes Gruber _not_ a
mere fanboi is his willingness to take valid criticisms of Apple seriously.

~~~
lacker
I'm confused by this comment. In this article Gruber is saying how much better
iPhones are than everything else. He doesn't seem to take the biggest
criticism of "no fixed keyboard" seriously.

~~~
jvdh
He has taken the "no fixed keyboard" argument seriously. He wrote about it a
number of times. He came to the conclusion that (when implemented well) there
is not much of a difference, except user preference.

<http://daringfireball.net/2009/07/mobile_phone_keyboards>

~~~
lacker
It just depends on your definition of "taking it seriously". For example in
that article Gruber says

 _Most people can thumb-type just as well, if not better, on an iPhone as they
could on a BlackBerry._

I prefer the iPhone to a Blackberry overall, but the argument that there is no
advantage to typing on a Blackberry is just not true. Here's a better
analysis:

<http://msgnet.org/2008/08/blackberry-vs-iphone-simplified/>

~~~
unalone
That's not an "analysis". That's an _opinion_ just like Gruber's - who,
incidentally, has much more in-depth articles regarding thumb-typing than this
one, which treats it as an incidental issue.

------
andreyf
_Emphasize that Android apps are background-capable, and that there is no
centralized App Store under one company’s ironclad control. There are no tales
of rejected Android apps because there are no rejected Android apps._

As much as Apple mucks things up, it isn't without reason that Apple made the
apps-in-foreground-only design decision and put so much effort into
controlling what software goes on the device.

Unless the Android is going to be marketed to people who care to check which
of their background processes has a bug and decides to eats up their battery
every once in awhile, there's a big advantage to having apps "just work", even
if distribution of those applications is a pain for developers.

------
UpFromTheGut
From a business perspective, making a Porsche-caliber android phone doesn't
make too much sense for Google. As far as I know, their business objectives
include

1) getting as many possible people online with their cellphones searching the
web & clicking ads,

2) stealing _Windows Mobile_ market share,

3) and selling android apps to as many people as possible.

And I believe, in that order.

Besides, I _like_ being able to replace batteries, sim cards, and sd cards on
my g1.

edit:formatting/typo

~~~
Ras_
I think that Windows Mobile is effectively in the deadpool.

With Microsoft signing a deal with Nokia to include Office into Nokia phones,
and Nokia's announcement to ditch Symbian in favor of Maemo there's no room
for somewhat outdated Windows Mobile.

Android, Apple, Maemo... there's already too many smart phone platforms to
develop for. Since MS dropped the ball with their Mobile OS, They might try to
adapt their strategy by partnering with Nokia and getting exclusive rights for
some software groups (pre-installs) or some other deals. Most likely exclusive
search engine deal.

------
stcredzero
I hope that someone over at Palm reads this and uses it as a playbook for the
Pre. Actually, I hope that someone over at Palm already thought of all this,
and that this _is_ their playbook. And others as well.

The platform you need to beat in this plan is not the iPhone. It's the
_jailbroken iPhone_. Make something that the real tech-heads and first
adopters cheer, and they will be your beachhead. Do that, and you can get
droves of the rest to follow you!

As usual, the hard part is not the idea, it's the execution.

~~~
jgfoot
Actually the Pre has all the features the article is recommending for Android:
Over-the-air calendar, contact, and email syncing through Google services;
background-capable apps; and no centralized App Store under one company’s
ironclad control. (OK, there's no app store at all, although precentral.net
and others are already distributing homebrew apps that can be installed if you
download Palm's SDK).

~~~
stcredzero
I wonder why Google isn't doing an App Store?

~~~
jcl
Did you mean to say "Palm" instead of "Google"? Android has the Android
Market, which is like the App Store.

~~~
danudey
Palm has an app store, it's just devoid of content.

------
georgekv
"A monoculture benefits no one in the long run, because it’s competition that
drives innovation."

I found myself agreeing with this statement strongly.

~~~
nkurz
To the contrary, I found myself shaking my head. Why is it in Apple's interest
to be forced to constantly innovate simply to maintain market share?

To say that 'a monoculture is not in the consumer's interest' make perfect
sense, but why wouldn't Apple prefer a case where it has no strong
competition? Their goal is profit via market share, not innovation for the
sake of innovation.

~~~
unalone
_Their goal is profit via market share, not innovation for the sake of
innovation._

Apple's goal is making good products. If they wanted shitloads of cash, they
could have sold out at any time in the last decade. Instead, they try to make
things that people will love.

If Apple has no competitor, they'll continue to innovate, have no doubts.
However, they might not innovate in all ways at once, meaning they might not
focus on annihilating all their weaknesses. If they've got a competitor,
suddenly there's incentive to beat their rivals in every way possible, and the
resulting products are even better.

~~~
AndrewO
> If Apple has no competitor, they'll continue to innovate...

I immediately thought of MS Word when this sub-topic came up. Since
establishing its dominance in, let's say 1997 or so, few features have come
along that have truly changed the way that users word process (the last one
for me was JIT spell checking). But MS has been adding more and more features
in an attempt to continue innovating.

There's a Word monoculture and there's innovation of a sort. I think the
interesting point that you make is that it's unfocused innovation that seems
to be either incremental or aimed at preempting possible minor complaints,
rather than exploring new ways for users to create documents. Not that I'm
critiquing MS specifically of this—I think this may be a general symptom of
monopoly (and I wonder if the same would hold for Apple).

------
BRadmin
"There are no tales of rejected Android apps because there are no rejected
Android apps."

I wonder if all of these mini-controversies actually help Apple and the
iPhone. It's another headline, another conversation piece, and like Gruber
says, most / many people aren't all that unhappy with the App Store. The only
reason they're stories and relevant in the first place is because of the
iPhone's insane popularity -- the App Store rejection articles seem to further
promote such instead of actually hurting it.

------
ruslan
I guess the only reason why ppl think "iPhone is cool" is just because of
slick multi-touch GUI, there's nothing else superior in iPhone per se. I have
been programming for both platforms for quite a while and, you know, I find
Android's Java less evil than all that iPhone's Obj-C stuff randomly mixed
with tons of C wrappers (CoreFoundation) for regular POSIX. I find Android SDK
more advanced because, 1) less code does more, 2) it's pretty standard Java
whereas iPhone/MacOS is a mind explosive mix of C, C++ and bogus ObjC, c)
testing/debugging cycle for Android is significantly shorter and d) Android
app deployment is almost instant.

Is there any reason why some vendor cannot implement same multi-touch input on
their hardware ? Is it strictly patented ?

~~~
dkokelley
The G1's hardware does support multi-touch, but Apple requested that it be
disabled. [http://digital.venturebeat.com/2009/02/09/apple-asked-
google...](http://digital.venturebeat.com/2009/02/09/apple-asked-google-not-
to-use-multi-touch-in-android-and-google-complied/)

The Palm Pre supports and uses multi-touch in the same manner as the iPhone.

It would seem that multi-touch isn't Apple's sole intellectual property,
though they have IMO implemented it the best.

~~~
ruslan
It's so frustrating when progress gets stuck against someone's greed. I think
Google should make Android open source so everyone could commit their code to
support features despite the will of Apple or mobile carriers. And this will
also invite smaller vendors to use and populate Android.

~~~
dkokelley
Android is open source (<http://source.android.com/>). The hardware is
proprietary (AFAIK). People have run MT demo applications.

 _It's so frustrating when progress gets stuck against someone's greed._

I would actually argue that greed has driven the majority of progress over the
last century.

------
randallsquared
Er, when the G1 came out, it was already _ahead_ of the iPhone for many
purposes: copy/paste, background apps, real keyboard. The newest iPhones have
one and a half of those (push notifications being worth some fraction of real
background apps), and if they came out with an iPhone with a hardware
keyboard, I'd consider buying one.

In the meantime, though, I'm waiting for the Motorola Sholes. :) I just hope
they don't mess that up.

------
gsiener
Is no one trying to get Android working on an iPhone? Surprised I haven't
heard anything about that yet.

------
acg
Google were always going to have a tough act to follow. What Apple have pulled
off with their platform is nothing short of amazing: but they have used
technology they had, and adapted. Google is inventing a lot of the stack, and
aren't rolling out on a single device.

------
davidw
I think going head to head with Apple on the high end is a mistake. Google
just isn't geared up to ever produce stuff that's quite as beautiful as what
Apple consistently manages.

On the other hand, there's a ton of space below that, and a ton of space to
make Apple clamber ever higher up the value chain in order to capture the
margins they want, keeping them out of the mainstream market.

------
forkqueue
And the manufacturer to do this? Nokia.

Frankly, if the N97 only ran Android and had a better touch screen it'd do
most of what this article recommends.

~~~
Ras_
Nokia is committed to Maemo.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maemo_(operating_system)>

Here's the announcement:
[http://www.ftd.de/technik/it_telekommunikation/:Strategiewen...](http://www.ftd.de/technik/it_telekommunikation/:Strategiewende-
Nokia-verliert-Vertrauen-zu-Symbian/551805.html)

~~~
pavlov
It's not an "announcement". Quite the opposite: Nokia has explicitly denied
FTD's report that they would be abandoning Symbian. However, phones equipped
with Maemo 5 are definitely coming to the high end of Nokia's range.
(Symbian's strength is that it works with substantially cheaper hardware than
any of the competing smartphone OSs, which is great for Nokia, as they are
particularly strong globally at the lower end of the market and in emerging
markets.)

The important point is that Nokia is adopting the Qt toolkit across the range.
Both Symbian and Maemo will have Qt at the top of the stack by 2011. At that
point, the underlying operating system won't be particularly relevant to
application developers anymore: C++ software written to Qt (with the upcoming
Orbit touch UI framework) will be just a recompile away from being ported to
Symbian.

~~~
Ras_
Important correction. Incredibly I've managed to miss that one.

------
alain94040
Here at FairSoftware, we are watching closely which platform developers are
most interested in, and iPhone is almost 10X ahead of Android.

I have been thinking for a year that Android would catch up, but I still don't
see real signs.

~~~
jamesbritt
"Here at FairSoftware, we are watching closely which platform developers are
most interested in, and iPhone is almost 10X ahead of Android."

Why do you think that is? The sense I get from people interested in iPhone dev
is that they think they'll make good coin from their apps.

~~~
cpr
Well, in our case (indie iPhone developer), I wouldn't touch the combinatorial
explosion of testing on random hardware with random features with a 1000'
pole.

Also, I hate Java--though it has GC, it's still basically a static language,
and horribly verbose to boot.

------
c00p3r
Just wait while it will be relatively easy to replace WM on devices like this
- <http://www.htc.com/www/product/touchpro2/specification.html> \- like the
process of downloading and installing (replacing windows) linux in 90's.

