
Elon Musk: "I would like to die on Mars" - kposehn
http://www.businessweek.com/printer/articles/71446-elon-musk-the-21st-century-industrialist
======
shawnee_
_On the assumption that people will be living on earth for some time, Musk is
cooking up plans for something he calls the Hyperloop. He won’t share
specifics but says it’s some sort of tube capable of taking someone from
downtown San Francisco to Los Angeles in 30 minutes. He calls it a “fifth mode
of transportation”—the previous four being train, plane, automobile, and boat.
“What you want is something that never crashes, that’s at least twice as fast
as a plane, that’s solar powered and that leaves right when you arrive, so
there is no waiting for a specific departure time,” Musk says. His friends
claim he’s had a Hyperloop technological breakthrough over the summer. “I’d
like to talk to the governor and president about it,” Musk continues. “Because
the $60 billion bullet train they’re proposing in California would be the
slowest bullet train in the world at the highest cost per mile. They’re going
for records in all the wrong ways.” The cost of the SF-LA Hyperloop would be
in the $6 billion range, he says._

The estimated cost projections for the bullet train project keep getting
bigger. I've seen estimates as high as $68 billion: and that is for
construction alone (not including maintenance, etc). If Elon Musk can come up
with a better idea, I hope we can remove enough of the red tape (that
incidentally makes endeavors like this so expensive) to at least let him try.

~~~
waterlesscloud
The California "high speed" rail project is depressing.

In theory, I'm a huge fan of high speed rail. But the California project is
going to end up costing over $100 billion, and everyone knows it. It's going
to take decades to complete. If, indeed, it's _ever_ completed. It's routed to
go places no one wants to go. And, as Mr. Musk says, it' not actually going to
be very fast. It's pretty much a classic textbook boondoggle.

I wish they'd cancel it and start over again from scratch in 10 years. It
could still be finished faster.

~~~
stcredzero
_> It's routed to go places no one wants to go._

Big. Red. Flag.

The Minneapolis light rail uses the same equipment as Houston's light rail.
The big difference is that the Minneapolis light rail goes between the
airport, downtown, and the Mall of America. People can immediately see its
value. Houston's light rail doesn't go to either of Houston's airports, even
though it's sorely needed.

~~~
cdwhite
Note, though that the Houston light rail line connects two of the three big
parts of Houston: Downtown and the Medical Center (+ the Museum district). I
don't disagree that airport service is sorely needed, and the Galleria would
be nice too, but it could be worse.

~~~
stcredzero
If the light rail went to the airports, then _many, many more_ people would
understand the value of it. The part of the populace that occasionally goes to
the airport and would much rather not have to drive is _much, much larger_
than the one that has to go between Downtown and the Medical Center and would
much rather not have to drive.

Basically, light rail to the airports means _game over_ to the opponents of
light rail. Short of that, there's still a chance to convince a majority of
people that it's only a boondoggle.

------
codex
Given Mars' weak gravitational field, extremely low atmospheric pressure, lack
of breathable oxygen, deathly cold temperatures, and weak magnetic field
(leading to high levels of radiation), he may well get his wish. Many others
will likely get this wish against their will.

If he would like to get a taste of realistic Martian colonization here on
Earth, may I suggest living underground in a windowless tank, surrounded by a
partial vacuum, next to a nuclear reactor.

~~~
waterlesscloud
If only humans had demonstrated some ability to construct defenses against
hostile environments.

You know, like they've done since the invention of fire and the construction
of lean-tos.

~~~
jfoutz
The self sustaining communities in the middle of the sahara give me enormous
hope for these types of projects. The self contained undersea habitats as
well.

------
mej10
How about... you know, not dying? At least in the foreseeable future.

You can do a lot more awesome engineering and science and exploration if you
don't die after ~80 years.

~~~
reasonattlm
The estimated price tag for a good shot at implementing SENS and demonstrating
robust reversal of aging in mice is $1B: $10M/year for ten years in each of
seven research programs, plus some padding.

[http://www.fightaging.org/archives/2004/11/strategies-for-
en...](http://www.fightaging.org/archives/2004/11/strategies-for-engineered-
negligible-senescence.php)

[http://www.fightaging.org/archives/2012/04/aubrey-de-grey-
on...](http://www.fightaging.org/archives/2012/04/aubrey-de-grey-on-the-costs-
and-cost-effectiveness-of-sens.php)

[http://www.fightaging.org/archives/2004/10/the-cost-of-
sens....](http://www.fightaging.org/archives/2004/10/the-cost-of-sens.php)

~~~
MikeCapone
I'm not a billionaire (yet), but that's why 100% of my charitable donations go
to the SENS foundation. Every marginal dollar has a much higher expected
utility there than anywhere else that I've found.

~~~
xenophanes
I am a huge fan of SENS too.

Here is another place with high value per dollar:

<http://industrialprogress.net>

Industrial Progress is a very important and practical cause, and this group
has a very effective leader who is actually having some effect at persuading
people (particularly people in industry) and providing them with better ideas.
And it's cheap. SENS needs a billion. A few hundred thousand would be huge
here.

~~~
simbyotic
I second this recommendation, CIP has been doing an amazing job at showing how
and why industrial progress is amazingly beneficial to human prosperity, while
dispelling the common critiques the "green" movement uses to dispel this idea.

Both SENS and CIP are hugely important ventures that people should look into
in my book.

------
Bud
Now that Jobs is gone, Elon is probably the coolest guy in the world. Can't
wait to see what he comes up with in the next 10-20 years.

~~~
marcoamorales
Jobs was never a cool guy in my book. For me, Steve Jobs was an egocentric and
self-centered. Elon is a visionary, just read this quote:

“I came to the conclusion that we should aspire to increase the scope and
scale of human consciousness in order to better understand what questions to
ask. Really, the only thing that makes sense is to strive for greater
collective enlightenment.”

Steve isn't even near to the impact of what Elon will have on humanity.

~~~
pork
What you can surmise from that is that they've both probably taken some acid
in their lifetimes. If Jobs were alive and younger, he too would probably have
been at Burning Man, place of many a revelation to the technologically
inclined.

~~~
nitrogen
You don't need acid to say things like that, just Star Trek.

~~~
psbp
Coming to this conclusion on acid is much more gripping and powerful than
while watching star trek.

~~~
shasta
In other words, acid doesn't produce profound thoughts, it just makes you
think your thoughts are profound.

~~~
jlgreco
I think the value of that should not be misunderstood. Imagine the reverse: it
would be quite damaging if something made you think that your ideas were less
profound or worthwhile than usual.

(I am saying this as someone who has never taken LSD, so take my take on it
with a grain of salt I guess.)

------
juiceandjuice
It's statements like this that have made me seriously consider applying for a
job at SpaceX.

~~~
uptown
So do it. (I'm sort of hoping a reply like this is enough to bump you forward)

~~~
juiceandjuice
I started looking at jobs two weeks ago after Neil Armstrong died out of
curiosity. I have a job at a place I love doing astrophysics, and I can't
complain much about that, but I need to update my resume anyway.

~~~
mrfairladyz
Where are you currently working, out of _ahem_ curiosity?

~~~
juiceandjuice
Stanford, I work on software for big physics experiments.

------
AYBABTME
I recently discovered who Elon Musk was and I'm always astonished to read
about him, and realize that he seems to have all the dreams that I have; plus
the money, the wisdom and the experience to accomplish them.

I never had a model or a 'hero' in my life, but I find it hard to deny Elon
this role. He's kind of imposing himself to me.

For some parts, he pisses me off. He doing it removes me the feeling that my
dreams were mine. On the other sides, my pride motivates me to accept his
theft as a challenge to try at surpassing him.

Now I'm only 25, so I guess I still have the time required to get on par, if I
keep working hard enough.

~~~
xal
Instead, go work for him. Go help make it all come true.

~~~
AYBABTME
Well, right now I'm still doing my undergrad and they (SpaceX) only take US
citizens or permanent residents for internships and COOP terms (I assume
because of the legal complications given the nature of their work).

But I know _your_ company does take interns and you guys are at a 5 mins walk
from my campus. So on a short term side, I'm focused on building my skill set
for an internship in your shop! (Sorry for the cheap plug!)

~~~
maaku
> I assume because of the legal complications given the nature of their work.

Unfortunately, yes. Google "ITAR aerospace" for why :\

Still, the American aerospace industry has a long and illustrious tradition of
bringing in experts from around the world and getting them citizenship. Get an
internship somewhere that isn't ITAR-restricted and get yourself on the fast
track for a green card.

------
damoncali
Enough of the hero worship. If Musk gets on one of his rockets in 15 years and
launches it towards Mars, he will certainly die. Long before he reaches Mars.

Yes, he's a great, fascinating man. I enjoy observing this stuff as much as
the next guy. But Good God - stop slobbering on yourselves. This is marketing
fluff of the highest order.

~~~
dasil003
Is it "of the highest order" because it's marketing something substantive?

~~~
damoncali
Exactly the opposite. It's the grand marketing of an even grander vision - the
ultimate vaporware.

Where people with can dream up supersonic aircraft that are massively more
efficient than the highly refined subsonic craft that have been built by
thousands of very smart people over decades.

Where magic tubes will transport people near the speed of sound whenever they
want for a mere $6B.

Where the realities of space flight are to be ignored because, well, the
leader of the venture is a really good business man and has a lot of charisma.

Is this not the same hacker news where people get bent out of shape when Apple
bends the truth on their iPhone marketing copy?

Fuck Mars. I'm going to Jupiter. In 2015.

The emperor has no clothes.

~~~
untog
_Is this not the same hacker news where people get bent out of shape when
Apple bends the truth on their iPhone marketing copy?_

Er, no, it really isn't.

The implication here is that he is actually working on these things, having
had a "breakthrough" over the summer. It could be absolute crap, yes. But he
has a number of previous successes that indicate he is capable of delivering.
The overall point is that he _isn't_ just dreaming, he is clearly spending a
lot of money on _doing_ as well.

~~~
enraged_camel
>>The overall point is that he isn't just dreaming, he is clearly spending a
lot of money on doing as well.

Furthermore, he is putting his money where his mouth is, by spending his _own_
money.

~~~
ericd
And finally, the results have been fucking great. The Tesla Roadster is
absolutely unbelievable, it's more fun than most roller coasters. According to
the reviews in car magazine, the Model S is similarly unbelievable in similar
and other ways (fantastic ride/handling, absurd acceleration, great cargo
capacity, seating for 5 comfortably, 7 with kids). And SpaceX is demolishing
the other space launch companies in their space in terms of price to fulfill a
launch. He's got way more license to dream up crazy things without being
called out than pretty much anyone else alive.

~~~
damoncali
Musk's reality distortion field puts Jobs' to shame.

He said he's going to send people to Mars in _15 years_. Here is one question.
How often do you get a chance to launch a rocket to Mars? (Hint: it's not
often). How many opportunities to send test missions and support gear will
there be in the next 15 years? How long will it take to build all that stuff?
A year? Two years? More? You just lost another mission.

Have they figured out how to get food there? Have they figured out how to
breathe there? Have they even designed the vehicle or even the thermal system
(for one example out of many) required to keep a human at a survivable
temperature for the trip? Have they done _anything_ to solve the incredibly
difficult problems that we face in this area? The results here are not
'fucking great', they're _non-existant_.

And the claim of a VTOL supersonic jet that is a breakthrough in _efficiency_
over traditional jets? Where are the results? There are none. zero. It's
fantasy.

The results have been great for Paypal, impressive for Tesla, and SpaceX has
proven a great contribution to the _existing_ aerospace industry. Great for
Musk - he has accomplished much and history will remember him as an
influential industrialist and visionary. But BS is BS, no matter who spews it.

EDIT: This thread has gotten lots of downvotes, but not one substantive
comment on what Musk has done that would indicate that these stories are
anything but puffery aimed at gaining publicity for his much more mundane (but
still rather impressive) efforts. When is the first Mars launch again? What
will be the payload? Tick tock - that deadline will be here before you know
it. The time has past for vision - the timetable Musk has outlined requires
action _now_. Action that is conspicuously absent.

~~~
dasil003
The fact that you're getting downvoted aggressively for being a cynic on one
of the most cynical sites should be an indicator that your cynicism is a bit
out of control.

Just because Musk talks about early ideas that are extremely unlikely (like
the VTOL jet) and may not pan out does not mean he's automatically a crackpot
spewing marketing fluff. He's earned the right to espouse bold ideas.

------
jboggan
I have always told myself that ending my days on another planet will be an
absolute definition of success for myself no matter what else I don't manage
to accomplish. It's a sufficient but not necessary condition. In ten years I
hope to be working in a business related to space exploration.

------
vannevar
I love what Musk is doing, but both of his current engineering successes---
Space X and Tesla---involve building well-understood vehicles, just faster and
at less cost than competitors. Doing entirely novel projects like a manned
mission to Mars or some new kind of mass transportation system are orders of
magnitude more difficult and uncertain, and I think he's grossly
underestimating the time and cost for either of his more ambitious new goals.
I'd like to see him make plain vanilla space transportation and electric cars
into business successes comparable to PayPal before he moves on to Mars and
Hyperloop.

~~~
robryan
I would like to see him do both. Even if the Mars stuff doesn't work out
perfectly on his ambitious timeline SpaceX devoting resources to pushing the
boundaries as well as refining the well known processes is going to create
more innovation in the long run.

~~~
vannevar
I would too, but in terms of immediate impact Tesla will have a greater social
and economic significance for the planet than the Mars mission, and the
company is really only getting started. I would hate to see Musk get bored
with it and move on to a new toy while Tesla fails for lack of leadership.

------
photorized
Re: “Boeing just took $20 billion and 10 years to improve the efficiency of
their planes by 10 percent. That’s pretty lame. I have a design in mind for a
vertical liftoff supersonic jet that would be a really big improvement.”

I respect what the guy has done. But a vertical liftoff supersonic jet is
going to be more difficult than anything he had encountered, including
rockets.

~~~
jlgreco
His entire life seems to have been spent doing progressively harder things. I
would be surprised if he decided what he is currently doing is as hard as it
is going to get.

------
rdl
I'd prefer to not die, but dying on Mars would be ok if dying is necessary.

~~~
sonnenkiste
Old things should go away after some time and make space for new things.
Dieing is the prefered way. As long as we have limited space and resources.
;o) Otherwise there will be no real development. We will more or less stuck in
where we are.

------
johnnyg
Yeah, you and me both Mr. Musk.

------
kilroy123
I sure hope SpaceX ends up being a success. I also hope, if successful, they
put a lot of money toward research on carbon nano tubes.

Hopefully, they or some other organization, could move towards building a
space elevator sometime in the next 50-100 years.

~~~
waterlesscloud
I'd really like to hear more about Google's rumored work on space elevators.

------
it
Saying it that way makes it sound like a new retirement community. Why not say
he would like to live on Mars? Maybe because it's a dead planet and not very
livable.

~~~
artmageddon
I think the point is that he knows while he still has many years of his life
ahead of him, eventually he'll be faced with mortality, and when that time
comes, he would like to have pushed humankind's ability to reach Mars to the
point where he could step foot there, live for awhile, and eventually be
buried there.

------
gnarbarian
That can be done for far less than establishing a long term colony there.

~~~
enraged_camel
Well, he _did_ qualify the statement by adding, "and not during landing."

~~~
27182818284
This is exactly what I tell people and they're surprised. If I was offered the
chance to homestead Mars with the caveat that LEO and landing must be
reasonable safe so I don't die in the boring parts, I'd sign up right away!

~~~
ChuckMcM
You and a lot of people. I'm sure a big chunk of the seasteaders would jump at
the chance to live on a moon city.

So here is the entrepreneurial challenge, _believe_ Elon, in that he will make
it possible to go to Mars, and before that it will be a lot easier to send
stuff to the Moon. What can you start researching today so that 10 years from
now when everyone realizes that this is going to come to pass you'll be way
ahead of the game and visionary?

~~~
jk4930
What about early settlement tech. Not only the habitats etc. but procedures
a.s.o. for the first years: in what sequence to create stuff, run
explorations, have emergency routines etc. all under the tight constraints of
an early colony.

Intelligent robotics as assistants and autonomous explorers etc. with a focus
on space conditions.

Advanced space medicine (say, transhuman spaceflight), modifications for the
body, brain-machine-interfaces etc., there are many non-trivial issues:
gravity, temperature, light, acceleration, radiation, ...

Interested? ;)

~~~
ChuckMcM
I've been thinking about the sequencing question a bit (steps to go from
"we're here" to "We're ready to accept visitors".

There are some interesting papers on microwaving the regolith into a concrete
like substance. Water generation or acquisition will be key of course so
different water strategies are interesting. Water mining robots may be key.

All very neat stuff.

------
gtirloni
"SolarCity, where Musk is chairman of the board, is a player in the
residential and commercial solar markets, with more than 28,000 customers, and
is expected to go public imminently at a value of about $1.5 billion."

We're valuing crap, err FB, at $50 billion these days. Why is a company with
actually something to offer to society getting valued at only $1.5bn ?

------
philhippus
I wonder if the Hyperloop is a maglev propulsion system contained within a
vacuum tube? That would essentially be space travel - on earth. It would also
allow for efficient use of energy, as long as the vacuum could be easily
maintained.

~~~
kmfrk
That's only until the TSA gets involved.

------
Zenst
For those who fiscaly are less likely to get to Mars and still wish to die on
Mars can always read this and smile:

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep-fried_Mars_bar>

on another less serious note I believe the chap in this news item will beat
him too it:

[http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/573673/mars-addict-lives-
on...](http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/573673/mars-addict-lives-on-chocolate-
for-17-years)

    
    
        Most people want to die in peace, but when you have to go to another planet to get peace then you just know noise polution has got a little bit out of hand.

------
sfriedrich
Go Elon! Big vision. Big execution. They ARE delivering. Get's my motor
revving.

------
greesil
Or maybe die on the way there.

McCoy: Don't pander to me, kid. One tiny crack in the hull, and our blood
boils in thirteen seconds. Solar flare might crop up, cook us in our seats.
And wait till you're sitting pretty with a case of Andorian shingles. See if
you're still so relaxed when your eyeballs are bleeding! Space is disease and
danger wrapped in darkness and silence.

Substitute Andorian shingles with just going crazy being cooped up in a tiny
ship.

------
JVIDEL
_I would like to die on Mars, just not on impact._

Easy, remember a few years ago when some guys at NASA proposed that the first
guys to Mars should be in their early 60s?

That's because getting there is not the problem, the problem are the copious
amounts of radiation you would absorb on the way which means that even if you
make it back you probably wont live much more.

So what those guys proposed was sending old astronauts on a one-way trip.

------
autophil
I would like to die on Mars. Oh brother.

How come "shut up and just do it" applies to everyone but Elon? Why does he
only have to talk about doing something to be hailed a hero?

Start backing some of this stuff up with action Elon.

~~~
blhack
>start backing this up with action

Not sure if sarcastic...

Elon Musk, as in: the guy who's company just ran a private reapply mission to
/the international space station/.

~~~
damoncali
I hate to break it to you, but everything NASA builds is built and operated by
private companies. SpaceX is an incremental improvement on something that has
been done for decades. That is a far cry from Musk's fantastic claims.

~~~
dasmoth
Commercially built: mostly true

Commercially operated: much less so (with exceptions, e.g. shuttle processing
was kind-of commercial)

Commercially designed: nope.

The commercial resupply contracts may not quite meet everyone's idea of what
"commercial" means (and there certainly was/is a lot of NASA scrutiny of the
spacecraft -- rather less of the launch vehicle), but it's still a
substantially different model from anything NASA has tried on a major project
in the last half century.

~~~
damoncali
This is just not true. NASA outsources pretty much everything to private
companies. I designed NASA hardware myself while employed by a private
company.

------
mherdeg
It always astonishes me that not only did Heinlein invent the Segway ("The
Road Must Roll"), he also invented the idea of people like Elon Musk (as D.D.
Harriman in "Requiem").

------
wooptoo
At first I thought they were talking about Elop from Nokia and I thought to
myself 'yap, we could send him to mars tomorrow'.

------
eckyptang
Conincidentally, I actually had a rather lucid dream about this a few nights
ago. I can see it is possible even with today's technology to get there and
stay there. It's just a matter of cost and inclination.

We need to send lots and lots of larger seed probes out there first though -
not the limited scope probes and landers we're using now, but general purpose,
long life scouting probes with engineering, tooling and life support payloads.

------
the_mitsuhiko
I think dying on mars can be accomplished in a reasonable timely manner.
Living on mars however might be hard.

------
benl
"Hopefully not on impact"

------
stickhandle
a man of my generation sees a little of the Larry Ellison swagger about Elon
Musk. I hope he does more.

------
knodi
Don't worry Mr Musk, you won't have to die pretty soon.

------
badcrowd-JG-IW
DJ Lee Kalt. Vergeet hulle bestaan.

