
Putin Goes to War in Crimea - bcn
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2014/03/putin-goes-to-war-in-crimea.html
======
garg
Isn't there some legitimacy to Russia's claims that the new ruling government
is made up of fascists, anti-semites, and russophobes?

NPR recently had a speaker that denied this calling it Russian propaganda and
I bought that but today I saw that the guardian mentions in the article at
[http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/28/ukraine-
genuine...](http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/28/ukraine-genuine-
revolution-tackle-corruption) , that there does seem to be a very strong ultra
rightest component to it in the Svodoba party
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svoboda_(political_party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svoboda_\(political_party\))
.

So far, members of the Svodoba are "deputy prime minister for EU integration,
interior, justice, energy, infrastructure, defense, culture, social issues,".
According to wikipedia, these guys were initially inspired by the Nazis. So
apparently, literally fascists.

The protesters fought against corruption and cronyism, but was their fight
hijacked by these Svodobans?

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adamnemecek
I'm confused about one thing. All news outlet are reporting this as
"occupation of Crimea" as if Crimea was not politically a part of Ukraine
proper, as if Russian army in Crimea is not the same as Russian army in the
Ukraine even though Crimea is part of the Ukraine. Why is that? Is it because
the majority of Crimea's population is ethnically Russian? Or is Crimea a
disputed territory, like Abkhazia?

~~~
vl
It was part of Russia till 1954 when it was transferred to Ukraine. Even after
fall of Soviet Union naval bases are still used by the Russian navy. So
basically historically population is pro-russian and military personnel was
already there before the crisis.

~~~
adamnemecek
Yes, I've read the wiki. It's still a part of the Ukraine. Similarly,
Kaliningrad was part of Germany (Prussia) until end of WW2. Yet if Germany
invaded Kaliningrad today, it would still be perceived as declaration of war.

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avodonosov
Incorrect. They are not going to war yet. Putin just got senat permission to
make this desition, but the desition is not made yet.

I still can't believe RF will go to war in Ukrain. I hope they won't.

~~~
omonra
Except that Crimea is already taken over by Russian soldiers. So the senate
rubber-stamp is just that.

------
lkrubner
I am speculating. What could Putin really hope to accomplish? And at what
expense?

I am looking at Wikipedia:

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine)

Ethnic groups (2001)

77.8% Ukrainians

17.3% Russians

4.9% others / unspecified

The Russians are concentrated in the eastern-most provinces, and also in the
Crimea.

Russia has 145 million people, the Ukraine has 46 million people, so in terms
of the ratio of people, Russia invading the Ukraine would be a bit like the
USA invading Mexico.

Russia also has a large per-capita GDP advantage relative to the Ukraine, sort
of like the USA advantage over Mexico:

Russia:

GDP (nominal) Per capita $15,717

Ukraine:

GDP (nominal) Per capita $3,862

I'm using the nominal GDP, not the PPP numbers, because when it comes to war
it is the nominal numbers that matter (PPP is focused on quality of life, and
the fact that your rent might be cheap, or that you can get a haircut for
cheap, influences your personal standard of living, but does not effect the
outcome of a war).

The USA wasted over $1 trillion in Iraq. If the USA tried to conquer Mexico
the war would drag on for many years and very nearly bankrupt the USA.
Likewise, I suspect a full invasion of the Ukraine would bankrupt Russia.
Chechnya is much smaller, yet still caused Russia considerable pain. And also,
Chechnya was isolated from Western help. The Ukraine has a border with a
country that is a member of the EU. It is true that the Poles dislike the fact
that famous Polish cities such as Lwów were stolen and given to the Ukraine,
but if it came to war with Russia, it strikes me as likely Poland allow its
border to become porous, in the sense that the border would become a way of
getting supplies to the Ukraine. It seems to me likely that the West would be
largely united in wanting to help the Ukraine.

The substantial expense makes me think that Putin would not want to try to
conquer the whole country. If that is what he wants, then he has gone insane.
What seems to me more likely is that he wants to seize those provinces that
are majority-Russian. This would be a grievous violation of the sovereignty of
the Ukraine, and would probably be regarded as a dangerous precedent. Also, if
Putin can get away with it, then there are obvious parallels to Hitler's 1938
occupation of the Sudetenland (which was majority-German). Also remember that
Neville Chamberlain's reputation was destroyed when he argued that this one
concession to Hitler would lead to peace, when in fact it lead to world war.
No Western politician would want to be cast as a modern day Chamberlain, so I
suspect many politicians in the West would be inclined to take a strong stand
against the partial annexation of the Ukraine to Russia.

I'm trying to think of any major powers that would be willing to support
Russia. It has some minor friends: the Serbs, the Syrian government, Cuba,
maybe Hungary, etc. But what major power would be willing to support this?
Does China have any reason to support Russia in this invasion? I suspect many
oil-producing Middle Eastern nations would love to see an economic blockade of
Russia, as that would jack up the price of oil.

Finally, there is Putin's use of language, in particular his desire to
describe this as an effort to protect the Russians living in the Ukraine.
There a parallel to be drawn to the language that Mussolini used when he
decided to invade Greece:

"These troops do not come as enemies of the Greek people and the Italian
Government does not in any way intend that the temporary occupation of several
strategic points, dictated by special necessities of a purely defensive
character, should compromise Greek sovereignty and independence."

[http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/10/liveblogging-world-
war...](http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/10/liveblogging-world-war-ii-
october-28-1940.html)

~~~
xux
You're misleading. We're talking about Crimea here. Ethnic breakdown in
Crimea:

58.2% Russians 27.5% Ukrainians Rest are mixed.

~~~
gahahaha
Crimean Tartars are a substantial group in Crimea as well, and they (for
historical reasons) are very sceptical of the Russians..
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Crimean_Tatar_2001-num.svg](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Crimean_Tatar_2001-num.svg)

~~~
xux
Updated figures:

58.32% Russians

24.32% Ukrainians

12.03% Tarters

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea#Ethnic_groups](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea#Ethnic_groups)

------
nobullet
I would suggest to invite UN troops to control the peace in this region until
Crimea holds the referendum on March 30. Not Russians nor Ukraine military
should interrupt this process.

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RockyMcNuts
thought this was good - [http://www.newrepublic.com/article/116810/putin-
declares-war...](http://www.newrepublic.com/article/116810/putin-declares-war-
ukraine-and-us-or-nato-wont-do-much)

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avodonosov
Actually, HN is not a political forum, so this thread is offtopic here.

------
ulam2
Demons run when a good man goes to war

