
Scott Gottlieb on how, and when, to end social distancing - pmoriarty
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/14/21219021/scott-gottlieb-coronavirus-covid-19-social-distancing-economy-recession
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pmoriarty
The most interesting part of the interview for me:

Ezra Klein: _" In phase three you also talk about using serological surveys to
determine population immunity. I’ve seen conflicting reports on whether people
who’ve gotten coronavirus are immune. What is your best guess on that? If we
had that serological testing, would it even matter?"_

Scott Gottlieb: _" Serological testing is important for understanding where
the virus has been and who’s been exposed. It could be important for decisions
about returning to work in certain professions where there’s gonna be high
exposure like police officers or EMT workers or doctors and nurses. But by and
large, what we’re going to find is that a very small percentage of the
population has actually been exposed to this virus. If you talk to the
modelers and the experts, they say anywhere from 1 to 5 percent of the US
population has probably been exposed to this virus already._

 _" If you look at the data coming out of Europe where they’re already using
serology, it’s in the 5 percent range. So the idea that 30 or 40 percent of
the population has had this virus is going to turn out not to be the case.
It’s going to turn out to be a small percentage of the population — certainly
in the single digits — that have the level of antibodies needed for immunity.
And it’s not going to be enough to create herd immunity. It’s also not going
to be enough to have this pool of people that can just return to work."_

If that prediction turns out to be true, then buckle in... it's going to be a
looong, bumpy ride.

