

Ask PG: Is Ray Kurzweil full of shit? - rpm4321

I've noticed that few other topics spark as much acrimony and mudslinging on HN as Ray Kurzweil and the Singularity -- maybe it's worse when the libertarian and liberal wings of HN go at it, or the ongoing "language wars" flare up, but that's about it.<p>Ray seems to have a pretty impressive list of supporters - Marvin Minsky, Larry Page, Bill Gates, Dean Kamen, Peter Norvig, Rafael Reif, Tomaso Poggio, Stephen Wolfram, Dileep George, etc. - and some high-profile detractors - Hofstadter, Kevin Kelly, Mitch Kapor, Gary Marcus, and Paul Allen.<p>Personally, I think a lot of his conclusions are probably inevitable in the long term - say 100 years out - but I'd guess that his timelines may be too optimistic to benefit any of us here personally. It's also hard to ignore the parallels between the Singularity and religious belief, and how that might betray wishful thinking on the part of its adherents.<p>Anyway, I just thought it would be interesting to hear your take on it.
======
keiferski
I'm not as bothered by his predictions as I am by his blinding, religious-like
devotion to their results. I would take him more seriously if he focused more
on the science and less on some pseudo-technocrat-religion.

------
jacques_chester
1\. Notice that Ray Kurzweil mentions provoke flamewars.

2\. Ask if Kurzweil is "full of shit".

3\. Make sure to work "Ask PG" into the title, that's always good for a
handful of upvotes.

Where're the reddit "TrollympicsJudge" novelty accounts when you need them?

~~~
rpm4321
Did you even read my comment? I'm genuinely very interested in PG's take on
this, and it was inspired by a protracted debate from earlier today:

<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5003916>

Also, in my opinion "full of shit" accurately reflects the opinion of the
majority of the anti-Kurzweil people on HN. It's an example of the sort of
middlebrow dismissal that typifies a lot of the comments at the link above.
That's what I'm trying to get at - whether HN really thinks Kurzweil deserves
these sorts of knee-jerk, absolutist reactions, one way or the other.

Personally, I think the ideas are serious and deserve some thought and
consideration. As I mentioned above, I'm fairly sympathetic to them long-term,
but a bit skeptical short-term.

The headline is also obviously a bit of an attention getter, sure, but I'm
certainly not a Karma Farma'.

~~~
jacques_chester
I don't believe you.

Quite sincerely. I don't believe you.

~~~
rpm4321
Yeah, because it's perfectly logical that I would engage in a multi-thousand
word, multi-month debate:

<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4923914>

<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5003916>

<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4791558>

<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4851307>

all as preamble in my master plot to... ??? wait, what is it exactly you're
accusing me of again? "Trolling"? - or was I just after those whopping 7 karma
points this whole time?

In all seriousness, I've wanted to post this Ask PG for a long time, and I
used the debate from the article earlier today as an excuse to write it. I've
read pretty much every word both Kurzweil and PG have ever written, but
they've never really crossed paths as far as I'm aware. PG's a very pragmatic,
no-nonsense, deep thinker, and my guess is he'd be skeptical, but it's too bad
this post didn't take off because I really would have loved to read his take
on it.

Maybe I should have said 'full of crap' or 'full of it'. Didn't mean to offend
your virgin eyes. ;) PG-13 titled posts are nothing new to HN, so I really
didn't think I'd be making waves.

~~~
jacques_chester
I generally don't plumb people's comment histories.

Your post fit the half-decent troll template perfectly.

Controversial topic: check.

Used inflammatory language: check.

Had some half-reasonable-sounding stuff too: check.

Mentioned high-profile participant by name: check.

I'm glad to learn that you were a false positive. But, given the same _prima
facie_ facts again, I'd make the same judgement again.

~~~
rpm4321
Hey jacques_chester, fair enough. It obviously wasn't only you who assumed
that, because unfortunately the post was flagged. In retrospect it was
obviously the S word that did me in, but it really didn't seem out of line
compared to the dozens of very popular, slightly-NSFW titles I've seen on HN
over the years.

Anyway, I've reposted it with a safer title in case you want to chime in on
the debate. Hopefully it takes off again because I really would love to hear
PG's take on the whole thing:

news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5006328

Boy, I don't remember ever seeing a comment war escalate and de-escalate so
quickly. Maybe there's hope for the Middle East after all. ;)

