

A plausible explanation for MH370 - andrewaude
http://mh370lost.tumblr.com

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will_asouka
The aircraft had fuel to fly to destination, divert to an alternate airfield
and hold there for 30 minutes as mandated by regulations. If the crew were
incapacitated, it would have flown at least to destination on autopilot and
maybe to alternate if that had been programmed.

GPS merely updates the inertial (laser ring gyro) solution. Losing GPS would
not prevent the autopilot navigating its route and eventually showing up on
land based radar.

This article is poorly informed.

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wyuenho
The aircraft would also have had to fly through Cambodian, Laotian and
Vietnamese airspaces, twice in Vietnamese's case, before getting into Chinese
airspace.

I'm also not sure inertial guidance will direct the aircraft off course enough
to sink in the East China Sea.

This article also doesn't explain why a Vietnamese military radar had detected
it to be U-turning just before it had to enter its airspace. This article is
bunk.

~~~
will_asouka
Yes, inertial is good for worst case 5nm accuracy for 5 hours after an update
from GNSS or ground based nav aids.

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emeidi
This article was posted by a HN account which is three hours old and seems
only to have been created for this sole purpose. Fishy.

Further, the author claims to have contacted a specific person at NTSB by
e-mail, and this person even dared to reply.

Aside: Guys, it's 2014, 13 years after 9/11\. An unidentified aircraft passing
over Chinese airspace for hours - withouth being intercepted? I'd consider
Chinese Air Force a joke if this really happened.

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cstrat
I though that if the passenger jet entered Chinese airspace it would have had
to report to the ground? A report I read early after the news broke, it said
that China said the craft never entered their airspace.

If a passenger jet entered their airspace and ignored the towers, what would
have happened?

~~~
maxden
I expect it would have been intercepted and destroyed if it threatened a
military area or high population centre.

In 1954 the Chinese shot down a Cathay Pacific flight killing some of those on
board. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cathay_Pacific_VR-
HEU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cathay_Pacific_VR-HEU)

If this was the case it wouldn't explain their apparent helping in the current
search phase though.

~~~
polymatter
1954 was 60 years ago and a completely different time when the government was
fearful of nationalist counter-revolutionary attacks and suspicious of
foreigners who for nearly a century had been taking turns on plundering
China's riches. China has changed a lot since then and I'm not sure you can
take their actions in 1954 as much evidence as what they would do today.

~~~
maxden
For sure, there would have been attempted radio contact etc that would have
been heard by other flights. But I still believe if a sensitive area or large
population area were threatened that they and many other countries would
choose to bring the airliner down.

I would also be surprised if China did shoot the airliner down, that they
would try and keep "a border incursion secret during this time", as it would
surely come out.

In this case, I don't think China was involved in the loss of the airliner,
but I thought others might find the history of the area interesting. I didn't
know about the Russian SAR issue in the Korean airliner disaster.

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arjn
The electro/mechanical reason for the plane's troubles may be plausible but I
doubt the area in the red circle is where it went down.

IMO, it's reasonable at this point to assume the aircraft did not continue
along its programmed autopilot course very far past the last contact point.
That red circle covers a fairly well militarized area (Vietnam, China,
South/North Korea, Southern Japan) and the civilian and military radar-warning
systems of one or more of these countries would have detected an aircraft that
was not on its known course.

~~~
kijin
My thoughts exactly. The airspace around Korea is extremely tightly
controlled, and everyone is looking out for Kim Jong Un's next missile launch.
(He just pulled off a couple of test launches last week.) Any unexpected
object in that area will definitely be noticed and, if unresponsive, shot
down.

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OpenRiver
adam air flight 574 (2007)

Took 9 days to find any wreckage. No distress call, because the crew did not
believe they were in an emergency situation.

No great conspiracy, just spatial disorientation, coupled with being in a
remote area.

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Air_Flight_574](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Air_Flight_574)

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neurotech1
I don't find the explanation plausible, actually.

If the aircraft had a sudden depressurization, and the pilots unconscious, it
would stay straight and level until out of fuel.

If the aircraft transponder (ADS-B) and ACARS (Satelite) link was disabled by
a blowout near the antenna, then other VHF radios would still function.

If ALL those communications systems disabled with the crew conscious and the
aircraft still flying they could activate handheld ELTs kept in the cockpit.

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uberchan
From what the writer have described it sounds pretty similar to this:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helios_Airways_Flight_522](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helios_Airways_Flight_522)

The point about the mobile phones makes sense, though I'm sure if the plane
flew over Chinese, Taiwanese, Korean or Japanese airspace their respective
airforce or even ATCs would have picked the plane up from their radars.

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oh_sigh
Why wouldn't the autopilot take it to at least near the airport? Also, does
autopilot continue to work if the listed sensors go offline?

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RobinUS2
An autopilot can perform an instrument landing, however this does require some
preparation of the flight crew (e.g. setting the right frequencies for ILS,
reducing airspeed, deploy landing-gear, flaps, apply brakes + thrust
reversers).

So simply guiding it to the nearest (suitable) airport would not make a big
difference.

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machbio
if the article was supposed to believed, isnt it obvious after all these
search - the plane might be in North korean airspace crashing into the land..

