
Toyota Camry cheaper to fuel than a Tesla Model 3? - alejohausner
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4316505-electricity-shock-toyota-camry-cheaper-to-fuel-tesla-model-3
======
azernik
The headline is based off of a big assumption: that the Tesla cannot be
charged off of home power, but instead has to always be charged at a
supercharger at about double the average residential electricity rate.

> First of all, this article deals with the large group of people who don’t
> have any ability to charge at home. For them, talking about charging at home
> is as irrelevant as a vegan cook book serving up a steak recipe. It just
> isn’t relevant to them. Yes, some people live in houses and can charge at
> home. Most people in this world can’t. So, Supercharging it is.

According to the Department of Energy [1], 63% of residential units have a
garage or carport, including 37% of rental units.

(There's also a complaint here about the Tesla just being substantially more
expensive, which, true enough.)

[1]
[https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-958-january-2-2017...](https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-958-january-2-2017-sixty-
three-percent-all-housing-units-have-garage-or-carport)

~~~
almost_usual
> In that scenario, the cost of charging your Tesla Model 3 is therefore zero.
> In the Toyota Camry LE hybrid it’s $0.05 per mile. How long would it take
> you to make up for the Toyota’s $11,805 up-front price advantage?

> For the average American who drives 1,000 miles per month, $0.05 per mile is
> $50 per month, or $600 per year. Divide $11,805 with $600 and you get almost
> 20 years.

Read the whole article.

~~~
azernik
I did read the whole article. The headline is the clickbaity and misleading
part. The end of the article is... well, true? The Model 3 is a somewhat-
higher-end car. Note that I mentioned the price complaint in my original
comment, which is at the _end_ of the article.

~~~
almost_usual
How is the title incorrect?

~~~
gwbas1c
Because it assumes you only charge at a Supercharger.

Residential electricity is significantly cheaper, and even cheaper if you have
solar.

(I pay about 4-5 cents per kwh, not 28 cents as the article assumes.)

~~~
vanniv
My residential power costs just about that $0.28/kWh, though, so maybe the
article is somewhat realistic

------
sabertoothed
Please don't share seekingalpha articles. The site is known for poor-quality
articles and highly biased authors.

~~~
JohnJamesRambo
Can you refute the math?

~~~
sabertoothed
The problem isn't the pure math. It's the assumptions and conclusions.

~~~
JohnJamesRambo
But you are doing the textbook version of ad hominem. We want to know if what
they are saying is correct and math can tell us. We don’t need more.

>a fallacious argumentative strategy whereby genuine discussion of the topic
at hand is avoided by instead attacking the character, motive...

~~~
sabertoothed
I think you are not being intellectually honest here.

The headline is "Electricity Shock: Toyota Camry Cheaper To Fuel Than A Tesla
Model 3".

Then the author assumes the Tesla will always be charged at an (expensive)
supercharger.

The math checks out (as in: I assume the simple calculations are not
incorrect). The author's assumptions/conclusions do not check out. And do not
back up the sensationalist (and incorrect) headline.

My comment was not ad hominem. Not only because I did not attack a human.

------
robbrown451
"Let’s further assume that I live like most people do in the world today, in
an apartment, and I park on the street."

That's quite an assumption. I have to park on the street. I would not choose
an EV as long as this is true. Duh.

The article also factors in the price of the vehicle, which doesn't make
sense. Yes my used Honda is cheaper than a Tesla vehicle overall. I'm also not
driving as nice a car.

~~~
beatgammit
Precisely. If the conversation is about fuel costs per mile, keep it about
fuel costs per mile. They should include figures for:

\- supercharger station electricity costs \- national average electricity
costs \- national average, amortized home solar costs

And then compare the fuel cost difference for each vs the price difference of
each to help people decide whether the premium for an EV is worth it.

~~~
urthen
Why would the author include that when it's not in their best interests? In
the disclosures they clearly state they are financially biased towards TSLA's
failure. It's little more than a hit piece intended to influence their stock
price downwards so the author will make money.

~~~
beatgammit
Hopefully they give practical advice based on relevant observations to build
trust with their readership. This particular article does the opposite.

I get that they have a motive to slam Tesla, but shoddy articles don't install
confidence in their brand.

------
cevn
> For fuel prices, I'm using today’s nationwide average gasoline price of
> $2.59 per gallon and $0.28 per kWh that Tesla charges at its Supercharger
> stations.

OK, but you could use a more accurate number, the price people pay at their
homes (Most rarely supercharge). A quick google shows thats 12c per hour in
the US (I pay 8 cents.)

Starting with "incorrect" (biased) assumptions will get you to the wrong place

~~~
neogodless
> In that scenario, the cost of charging your Tesla Model 3 is therefore zero.
> In the Toyota Camry LE hybrid it’s $0.05 per mile. How long would it take
> you to make up for the Toyota’s $11,805 up-front price advantage?

> For the average American who drives 1,000 miles per month, $0.05 per mile is
> $50 per month, or $600 per year. Divide $11,805 with $600 and you get almost
> 20 years.

At least the article offers a generous alternative for comparison.

~~~
linsomniac
AFAICT, the 0.05/mile for the Camry doesn't include any costs other than the
fuel. Teslas are insanely low maintenance, and while Toyotas tend to be low
maintenance as well, there WILL be fluid changes and others (belts, plugs,
etc) that the Tesla won't. Source: I have a Tesla and 2 Toyotas. :-)

~~~
neogodless
Yes. I'm not saying the articles conclusion (that fuel costs are why electric
vehicle market share is growing slowly) is accurate. Just that an argument
only about the cost of electricity isn't really sufficient to dispel the
premise.

Total cost of ownership is a lot more than purchase price and fuel cost. You
and I agree on that.

------
astuyvenberg
¯\\_(ツ)_/¯ and?

I don't think fuel economy is the reason people purchase a Tesla. The Model 3
beats the Camry on cool-points alone.

~~~
neogodless
The number of cars that beat the Camry on cool-points, but sell a lot less
each year is a very long list. At least the Model 3 sales are growing and
could very well overtake the Camry at some point.

(Camry sold about twice the Model 3 in the US last year.)

~~~
astuyvenberg
Oh absolutely! I'm commenting that fuel economy is likely _not_ the deciding
factor for people considering purchasing a Tesla vs a Camry.

In fact, I can't imagine many car purchase decisions boil down to "Camry vs
Model 3".

------
exhilaration
I'm not sure who's right but these guys say the Tesla is cheaper to own
overall: [https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/27/tesla-model-3-vs-
toyota...](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/27/tesla-model-3-vs-toyota-
camry-5-year-cost-to-own/)

~~~
onlyrealcuzzo
I'm skeptical of the resale estimate 5 years into the future. What percentage
of Teslas are older than 5 years? Like 1%? What's the oldest model 3? Like 3
years?

I'm sure there's enough car sales that even with a small-ish sample size they
can make pretty good predictions, even for a new make & model.

But I'll be surprised if the Model 3 estimate turns out to be as accurate as
the Camry.

------
glitchc
It just costs less to fuel in a narrow scenario (always charging on the road).
For traveling salesmen, this might matter somewhat, although there aren’t that
many of those left. The TCO of the Tesla is still lower. I’m not even a Tesla
fanboy, but on a typical car, maintenance is ~$500 per year over the life of
the car.

~~~
lotsofpulp
How does one know the TCO of a Tesla over the life of a car if it hasn't been
out long enough? Camry has a proven track record.

~~~
glitchc
Indeed, that’s a good point. The sporadic repairs that folks have reported
(infotainment motherboard replacement for failing flash memory) have been
rather costly. It’s hard to tell how frequent those are, Tesla isn’t releasing
numbers and there are no third-party facilities that service Teslas who may
have such numbers. It is quite hard to tell.

------
tashoecraft
I disagree on any comparison where the cost difference between the vehicles is
one of the big arguments.

This same argument applied to the Prius, but it completely ignores how the
majority of people actually buy cars. Very few people will cross shop these
cars, regardless of cost savings, because they were already planning on buying
a 35k+ car. So if they start looking towards other cars, it will almost
certainly be other cars in that price range.

Taken to an extreme I can compare the Tesla with a electric moped, but that
doesn’t benefit anyone. The model 3 is targeting the entry level Bmw,
Mercedes, Audi crowd, the high end American sedan crowd, and the low-mid Asian
luxury sedans. Compare against those cars as that’s what the perspective
buyers are comparing against.

If Tesla makes a truly budget sedan in the 20k range, then it’s a different
comparison.

------
WBrad
I find this analysis hard to take seriously. The majority of Tesla owners
aren't average Americans, most have homes.

Secondly Tesla has positioned itself as a luxury car manufacturer, a better
comparison would be the Lexus ES Hybrid($42k base) vs the model 3($39k base),
Or comparing the Camry hybrid ($28k base) to a Chevrolet Bolt($37k base), or
even the Nissan Leaf EV ($29k before tax credit, $22k after)

I do however agree the average American who lives in an apartment isn't
getting the best deal with a full EV at the moment. I'd be pushing for PHEV
vehicles like the Volt or Prius Prime to those who want to be able to charge
but don't always have the opportunity.

------
lm28469
If you don't take into account the cost of burning gas for the future
generations, sure. Also, in Europe we're closer to $6 a gallon than $2.59 a
gallon

------
msoad
You can only make sense of this article if you have never sat in a Tesla Model
3 and a Toyota Camry. This is worse than comparing oranges to apples!

Tesla's build quality is more like BMW, Lexus and Mercedes than Toyota.
Comparing to those cars you won't have that $11k advantage, fuel will cost
more because you have to use premium petrol and cost of maintenance will be
vastly different in the long run.

~~~
celerrimus
Interesting point of view. I assume you never sat in the recent model of
Camry. I have opportunity to sat in two Tesla S, they are much more like
Korean cars 10+ years ago. Beside fancy screens, cheap and shoddy inside,
unacceptable for the price. Something that can't be compared to european or
japanese mid-size cars. Or even recent korean models. I never sat in Model 3,
and I'm comparing to european version of Camry, maybe US version made locally
is "cheaper" inside, as we here in Europe pay much more attention to this.

Regarding fuel, I'm not an expert for US market, but again in Europe standard
fuel (95 octanes) is sufficient enough for every car, even top performance
engines like Ferrari. You can buy premium petrol, 98 or even over 100 octanes,
but it's not required.

Tesla is expensive brand, but I don't think it's considered premium on this
side of the pond. Especially with terrible reputations about the customer
service. I think it would be fair to compare it with Camry - or in case
someone need little more luxury, there's Lexus ES - basically Toyota Camry
with premium touch - still noticeably cheaper than Lexus ES.

------
debrice
I have to admit, I’m quite impressed by the performance of the Camry Hybrid
here!

In the long run, I suspect gas price will keep going up. I live in Los Angeles
and pay around $4/gallon, at this rate it will become extremely hard for
gasoline vehicles to compete against electric vehicles.

------
Lendal
He's not comparing apples to apples. $0.28 per kWh is the most expensive way
possible to recharge a Tesla, while $2.59 per gallon is NOT the most expensive
way possible to refuel a Camry.

------
luxuryballs
The inconvenience factor of running out of fuel is a pretty big difference
too, a quick ride to the gas station and back for a gallon of gas versus a tow
and recharge time.

------
nimbius
the article seems to take a stab at cost of ownership which is hardly why
people buy a Tesla. If we are being pragmatic the lifespan of the battery
itself is to be considered as well. after 8-10 years some are reporting range
losses close to 100 miles.

[https://undecidedmf.com/episodes/2019/10/29/how-long-
does-a-...](https://undecidedmf.com/episodes/2019/10/29/how-long-does-a-tesla-
battery-last-my-tesla-is-losing-range)

a 10 year old camry, well maintained if anything, will stay level in range as
cam lobes and valves seat, and piston rings set into the grooves of the
cylinder wall.

if you really wanted to trump the fueling cost of a Tesla, you might consider
just buying an older Honda. with lighter weight and lower horsepower they will
likely be cheaper to "fuel" than a new Tesla 3. walking and public
transportation are also cheaper than Tesla ownership. Then again owning a
tesla is rarely about the cost of ownership.

~~~
elcano
It is not a serious article about cost of ownership. It cherry picks and
conveniently creates scenarios that make the case that the author wants to
prove. For cost of ownership the author had to include the cost of a lot of
oil changes, timing belt changes, spark plugs changes and several other costly
mechanical maintenance that you have to do to ICE cars that you don't do to
electric cars. That, of course, is not included.

------
ssewell
Worth noting: Andy Slye did an in-depth real-world analysis of his Model 3 for
the first 10k miles:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0MjZOR89Fk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0MjZOR89Fk)

He got $0.0206 per mile. Much lower than the article's estimates.

------
revscat
And like almost every similar article, it fails to take into account the
externalized cost of carbon.

------
hokkos
Or just customize the number here to compare different models, even using its
supercharger usage (which is probably not the norm) and cheap gas TM3 still
come cheaper :

[http://carboncounter.com/](http://carboncounter.com/)

------
smcg
Electrics might be more expensive now but they are better for our future.

------
bagacrap
Teslas are a status symbol. If they were cheaper than a Camry, no one would
buy a Camry, and the people who do buy Teslas would look for something else to
signal their wealth.

------
dubcanada
Of course the Tesla costs more? Why is the $10k difference even a matter, it
should just be about the fuel. That part seems to indict this article is
biased.

------
shams93
Tesla is the most expensive case how about comparing the Toyota to the less
expenses electrics like the Fiat e500.

------
Fjolsvith
But when you add a Powerwall and Solar Roof, the numbers swing the other way
over time.

Besides, I'm sure the maintenance on a Camry costs much more than the
maintenance on a Tesla.

~~~
beart
Why are you sure of that? How much do batteries cost to replace? What is the
mark up on a Tesla shop for parts and labor and how does that compare to a
Toyota dealer?

~~~
pfdietz
It's turning out the batteries cost nothing to replace, as they are outliving
the cars.

Let's talk about the cost of oil changes, engine tuneups, spark plugs,
mufflers/exhaust, brake pads and rotors.

~~~
na85
>Let's talk about the cost of [...] brake pads and rotors.

Your tesla has brakes, I hope.

~~~
AnthonyMouse
They last a lot longer on a vehicle with regenerative braking.

------
linsomniac
TL;DR: Calculated using the national average fuel cost and double the national
average electric costs.

------
Whatarethese
This seems like FUD.

