
Legal marijuana is taking a bite out of drug cartels' profits - potshot
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/03/03/legal-marijuana-is-finally-doing-what-the-drug-war-couldnt/
======
caseysoftware
> The latest data from the U.S. Border Patrol shows that last year, marijuana
> seizures along the southwest border tumbled to their lowest level in at
> least a decade.

That does _not_ mean there are less drugs being imported, just that less are
being seized. I worked with the Border Patrol years ago and it was astounding
how they tracked success:

\- When arrests increased, they celebrated that enforcement was working.

\- When arrests decreased, they celebrated that deterrence was working.

Heads I win, tails you lose.

While I'm in favor of legalization, you should take these numbers and the
process that created them with a grain of salt..

~~~
gregpilling
Speaking of the US Border, it is way more porous than many people think. Here
is a photo of the 2 strands of barbed wire that make up the border fence near
Locheil Arizona.

If you ride your dirt bike along the border there (I did), then you will find
a few dirt roads that cross the border that look heavily used. I spent 8 hours
down there and was not approached by any Border Patrol (Saw some from 100 feet
away, but no contact)

There is so much stuff crossing the border, in so many places.

[https://www.google.com/maps/@31.333054,-110.626566,3a,75y/da...](https://www.google.com/maps/@31.333054,-110.626566,3a,75y/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1s92944321!2e1!3e10!6s%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fproxy%2FwfYrxITpg9k7jdJyFNVk5R-VJ9jooe9tCPegs22ar3VBqeMoOf5uKEVhzSJ4-bmFb5P96lXvrt0Q9u9dInybQl5gCOoZKg%3Dw203-h152!7i3264!8i2448)

~~~
umanwizard
I think most people (at least from the Southwest) know about this; otherwise
Donald Trump's desire to "build a wall" would be incoherent.

~~~
facetube
Donald Trump's desire to "build a wall" is incoherent.

~~~
doktrin
It may be unrealistic, but it seems _coherent_ enough to me. What's so crazy
about border control?

~~~
kombucha2
Making Mexico pay for it for one and the other crazy ideas he wraps up in it.
That, indeed, does make his plan incoherent.

~~~
mc32
If he means it's going to come out of their pockets directly, he's deluded.

On the other hand, given the trade deficit he could say, we're pulling out of
Nafta, unless you kerb your unauthorized border crossings.

Alternatively he could fine the unauthorized border crossers they catch and
partially fund it that way. Or he could institute temporary permits (seasonal
whatever) and impose a fee for those. Also fine employers who hire
undocumented workers and fund it partially that way.

It really depends on what he means by "Mexico" and "pay". But if he's
flexible, and he appears to be, it could be possible.

~~~
Amezarak
In fact Trump has mentioned ideas such as a special tax on any money sent to
Mexico, which is certainly plausible.

Trump doesn't help his case by simply headlining "and Mexico will pay for it"
over and over, but he does mention practical suggestions (even if you remain
opposed to the fundamental concept) from time to time on most of his policies.

------
gregpilling
Another reason not mentioned in the article is quality. Domestically produced
hydroponically grown marijuana is so much better than the Mexican weed. I live
60 miles from Mexico in Tucson Arizona, we see a lot of it around here. The
quality difference is huge - compare your favorite craft brew with Bud Light
that has been left in the sun too long.

I had a friend give me an ounce of Mexican weed last year. That is a fair bit
of weed. I tried a sample one night, and then gave it back. It wasn't worth
keeping around, even for free. I knew I would just never use it, it was
typical Mexican ditch weed and my tastes had gone to better things.

So which beer did you want? Sam Adams, or this Miller with a cigarette in it?
The Mexican weed is just disgusting now. Only people on a tight budget will
use it, not people with a choice; maybe 10% of the users I know. Everyone else
gets the good stuff. Light, fluffy with 20 strains to choose from, tested and
graded, and you can pick out the individual bud that speaks to you; or
compressed brick that smells a little like coffee or grease and has an unknown
THC level, unknown origin, unknown anything.

The only positive attribute to the Mexican weed is price.

~~~
conceit
Since when is the sun worse than indoor lighting?

~~~
rexfm
It's more about a controlled growing environment. Outdoors there's a 100%
higher chance of pollination, which means seeds and spindly buds. Indoors it's
much easier to separate male and female plants, and also much more likely to
have consistent watering etc which leads to more lush growth

~~~
zamalek
I personally find that [high quality] outdoor is akin to a beer after work. It
helps you wind down after a stressful day. An hour or two later and there are
no lingering effects, it's great for a touch of relaxation. I find that I can
carry on being productive even while high.

Conversely, indoor tends to be more like sharing a bottle of wine with someone
- you're going to get far a stronger kick out of it and it's going to last
longer. It also tastes much nicer.

I'm not disputing what you're saying, growing outdoor is cheap (virtually
free) and therefore attractive. Typically there is little pride involved and
the quality suffers. However, _well-grown_ outdoor fills a niche just like
well-grown indoor does. It merely has a bad reputation.

------
pcl
_The cartels, of course, are adapting to the new reality. Seizure data appears
to indicate that with marijuana profits tumbling, they 're switching over to
heroin and meth._

This is a really interesting development. There's always been this "gateway
drug" argument around pot: once people start with marijuana, they'll move onto
the harder stuff. I can imagine that there might be a correlation, but I
expect that the causality is the other way around: once you break the law a
bit for pot, and discover that it's really not a big deal, you assume that the
other illegal drugs are probably fine too.

As marijuana becomes more and more legal in the US, it'll be interesting to
see which way the causal link goes.

~~~
anon987
Here's to hoping people realize and deal with the _real_ gateway drug:
Prescription opiates

~~~
cnp
Here's to hoping people realize and deal with the _real_ gateway drug:
Alcohol, that great destroyer of worlds, marriages, cultures, physical health
and particularly the brain, time (hangovers, boredom), coping strategies
(emotional pain), real pain (coping strategies), poor decision making (you
know it), and so on. Start here, and come into it with a few entrenched
problems, and sure enough you'll find yourself elsewhere should time and
circumstance align.

To all the magical, healing drugs that are currenly illegal: may you one day
be free.
[http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2010/11/drugs_caus...](http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2010/11/drugs_cause_most_harm)

~~~
tamana
What would happen to those rankings of meth and heroin were sold at every
grocery store?

Alcohol takes a lot of blame because it is the most accessible and cheapest
drug.

~~~
MichaelGG
Methamphetamine is sold at grocery stores (Safeway, Target, several others),
at least according to a quick search:

[http://www.goodrx.com/desoxyn?drug-
name=desoxyn](http://www.goodrx.com/desoxyn?drug-name=desoxyn)

~~~
alexbecker
This is misleading; it's sold at grocery store pharmacies, but only with a
prescription. As a Schedule II drug the controls are much tighter than normal
drugs, including strict regulations on who can prescribe such drugs and
secondary verification for new prescriptions. In NY (and soon more states),
they can only be prescribed electronically using approved security measures.

------
cygnus_a
This is one of the main reasons I support legalization and/or
decriminalization of all drugs. Demand is demand, and a black market economy
is worse than a transparent & regulated economy.

I think it's still necessary to focus on reducing demand (through education
and self-help, not punishment).

~~~
jqm
I'm of the opinion people should be able to do what they want. And certainly
drugs being illegal causes more problems than it solves. That being said, here
is a case to think about.

When I was in my early 20's (20 years ago) I got a job in Phoenix AZ working
on a concrete crew. We were building poured in place buildings (something like
big box store size). First we would pour the floor. Then the walls on top of
the floor and pull them up into place with a crane. It was extremely demanding
work and the company beat the crap out of everyone. Very often we would get to
work at 3 AM so we could pour before the sun to prevent the mud drying so
fast. Lunch time was around 10 minutes and there weren't breaks. If you didn't
run at all times... going to get a shovel...run, go for a drink of water, run
you got yelled at. If you still didn't run a second time you were fired just
like that.

My first day there were 7 or 8 new people. At the end of the day they had
fired all the new people except me and one other guy. This went on for a
couple of weeks until they had the crew they wanted. I needed the job and it
paid pretty well (at the time) so I ran and busted ass like you wouldn't
believe. After a couple of months I got let go as well and was very OK with
it. It was completely nuts and I'm sure illegal as hell but no one appeared to
complain and I'm not sure the state at the time and place would have listened
anyway.

The point being... almost everyone on the job site was doing meth. Except me
and maybe a couple of other people. I've never been a fan of meth and find it
completely disgusting even though I'm not "anti-drug" and I damn sure wasn't
about to do it out there. It was expected. The pace was set by meth. When you
finally burnt out, you were thrown away and left with mental/health problems.
But the building was up and the company owner made money.

That is my fear about legal drugs. Expectations. End results. Even social
expectations like booze is now in many places. I want to do what I want to
do... not be expected to do anything.

It's a complex problem. I don't know the answer. Maybe part of the answer is
to invent better/less harmful drugs that are less easy to abuse and legalize
those.

~~~
marcoperaza
Here's how I look at it: it's a trade-off like any other. There are people
with unsustainable work practices in every job. It could be long hours, little
sleep, performance enhancing drugs, etc. If it makes them deliver better work,
they'll get rewarded for it in their career, but they're most certainly
suffering consequences elsewhere. Family strain, health problems, emotional
drain, loneliness.

The temptation is strong to ban other people from making different trade-offs
than us, because it keeps them from besting us in competition and challenging
our value systems. But what right do we have to dictate what other people
should value and what trade-offs they're allowed to make with their own lives?
My sweat, blood, and tears are mine and mine alone to give and withhold.

~~~
tamana
Because rational people know that people aren't always rational.

Are you also opposed to those medians and guardrails on highways that impinge
on your freedom to drive off the road when you so choose?

~~~
marcoperaza
I think that's a spurious analogy. The public has no duty to build roads such
as to enable your preferred suicide technique. The public has no right to tell
you how many hours you can work or not. A job is a free exchange between two
parties.

~~~
vidarh
> A job is a free exchange between two parties.

That's a statement born out of extreme privilege. For substantial proportions
of people, there is very little freedom involved: You take what is on offer,
or you lose your house or don't eat. One side has an extreme amount of extra
leverage, and some of them takes according advantage.

People died fighting for the 8 hour working day because without regulation
employers simply did not give a shit if they were working people into an early
grave. We have May Day labour demonstrations in large part of the world in
part as a result of what is now the AFL-CIO wanting to commemorate the Chicago
Haymarket massacre, and restart what was already then, in 1880's, a multiple
decades long fight for human working hours.

In other instances, people burned to death because of employers that thought
it ok to lock the factory doors to prevent workers from taking unauthorised
breaks.

Is that an indication of a free exchange?

For a free exchange, both sides need to have reasonably equal power.

~~~
marcoperaza
You make a good point. My response to a someone with a similar perspective on
a different fork of this thread:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11237231](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11237231)

I would love to hear your thoughts. I'm hopeful that both classical and
progressive liberals can find common ground in a basic income. Combined, we
are an unstoppable force for human freedom and prosperity.

------
LAMike
Wow what a Black Swan event.

Take something illegal and taxing it heavily has a negative impact on the
black market's profit and a positive impact on the economy. Truly disrupting
the space.

~~~
conceit
I'm sure the black market profit doesn't even notice. However, many operations
are still considered at least gray market as the feds take down plantations.

~~~
alxndr
The black market is noticing; the article ends with this:

> "The cartels, of course, are adapting to the new reality. Seizure data
> appears to indicate that with marijuana profits tumbling, they're switching
> over to heroin and meth."

------
WalterBright
It's pathetic that we've learned nothing at all from Prohibition.

------
spoiledtechie
While the seizure rate has gone down, I believe this to be a two part or
multiple part reason. Border agents have also gone way down along the border.
It's a number that has also been rapidly decreasing over the past four years
from the current administration. Ex: I am a past employee of Customs and
Border.

~~~
xenadu02
I don't see that in the federal data. Can you cite something to back up the
claims? Border & Customs is still employing most of those people to work
_somewhere_.

------
logibly
Why was marijuana in the "illegal" list in the place ? Any scientific studies
that it is more harmful then alcohol or smoking ? Here in India it is legal
and part of the religious traditions since thousands of years. It's known as
"bhang" in hindi.

Essentially legalizing is just getting thing right which was wrong earlier.

~~~
roel_v
"Here in India it is legal "

That's a rather spectacular claim to make, and indeed, the very first sentence
of
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_India)
says " All forms of cannabis are currently illegal in India, with some limited
allowances made for some traditional preparations." So either you are wrong or
the Wikipedia article is, along with all its references, history etc. I'm not
a betting man but if I were, I know where I'd put my money...

------
ChuckMcM
Its nice to have some data to confirm what many predicted. That said, the DEA
is acutely aware that it is _much_ easier to move drugs around once they are
already in the country and so their mission my require installing border
crossing checkpoints on states that have legalized those drugs.

I saw a sign on the Kansas side of a highway leaving Colorado that said "If
you bought pot, leave it behind." Clearly someone had seen an uptick in drugs
coming in that way.

------
LordKano
Is anyone surprised by this?

It's the same thing that happened when alcohol prohibition was lifted.

------
oldmanjay
The actual headline would be better expressed as "legal marijuana undoing what
the drug war caused"

------
andrewstuart
Pot is still illegal in Australia because, you know, it's bad.

~~~
leeoniya
But alcohol is, you know, grrrreeeat!

/s

~~~
ocdtrekkie
The fact that we have one terrible substance that is legal isn't a
justification to legalize another.

~~~
doyoulikeworms
Pot isn't a terrible substance. Especially not when compared to alcohol.

~~~
conceit
That's always a question of proportion. _It 's all in the mix._ It's sure
carcinogenic and surely beats the lung up in a lot of ways. It also does
statistically, by my own observation, lead to a significant lack of all kinds
of activities.

For example, it frequently leads to a lack of believe in - or even just
consideration for - how terrible substance consumption is, over all if not for
the sake of nutrition.

~~~
mystikal
Also if you are prone to developing a psychotic disorder (prevalence of
psychotic disorders is ~3%), pot consumption before the age of 20 increases
the chances of it happening.

~~~
conceit
Which is probably just a consequence of other complications.

~~~
mystikal
This is a fairly neutral review of the literature:

[http://cannabisandpsychosis.ca/more-information/what-do-
we-k...](http://cannabisandpsychosis.ca/more-information/what-do-we-know/what-
is-the-evidence-saying/)

~~~
conceit
there is not a single source given, just wiki links

~~~
mystikal
There are plenty of sources and the original papers are easily found, but
there isn't a proper bibliography with links which I agree is frustrating. For
example the first one says the last name of the author and the year:
Andreasson and 1987. So I googled "Andreasson 1987 cannabis" and found the
article:

[http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-67...](http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2887%2992620-1/abstract)

Hope this helps.

