

Unskilled and Unaware of It - Xichekolas
http://www.apa.org/journals/features/psp7761121.pdf

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mdasen
This article could also be called skilled and unaware. While the authors
assert that those who are unskilled lack the metacognition to realize that
they are unskilled, the skilled also seem to lack the ability to realize just
how skilled they are. Each study shows the top quarter vastly underestimating
their ability. In each study, it looks like once you get to the 65th
percentile, people start underestimating their ability. While there is some
variation in people's perceptions of their abilities, most people seem to
think that they just fall in an above average range whether they're brilliant
or not.

This is really interesting and has broad implications on how we interact with
the world. For example, if you're brilliant, but perceive yourself as above
average, you won't think you're entitled to brilliant pay - just above average
pay. Likewise, someone who is far below average, but thinks that they are
above average will likely believe that they are entitled to above average pay.
And that has implications both social and political spheres.

However, this might just be another manifestation of the middle class effect
that we see all the time. People, generally speaking, always see themselves as
middle class in America regardless of where they actually fit into the social
hierarchy. In both situations, one of the factors might be that one's peer
group is usually less of a cross section of society and more a cross section
of one's own class and therefore it's likely that you'll be somewhere in the
middle of that smaller grouping. Likewise, one's peers are also likely to be
of the same intelligence level and therefore that becomes skewed.

Before I get jumped on with that last bit, I did read the part where the
unintelligent not only misplaced their percentile, but also couldn't figure
out how many they got wrong. But that's also influenced by where you think you
placed relative to others. If you think you placed above average and the exam
was meant to test a variety of people, you're decently likely to assume that
you scored better than you did.

Well, maybe I'm full of hogwash. Still, it's really interesting to think about
what it means socio-politically when people assume that they're in a different
place than they are (intelligence, production, etc.).

~~~
nimbix
Your comment reminds me of the #2 fact from the book "Facts and fallacies of
software engineering" which states that the best programmers are up to 28
times better than the worst programmers but nobody, including themselves, is
aware of that. This makes them a great bargain because their paycheck is not
nearly proportional with their quality.

If all the best people were aware of how good they actually are, they'd have a
really hard time finding a job where they wouldn't feel underpaid. Also, it's
probably better if we don't have to deal with people on zour team constantly
thinking how they're 20 times better/worse than some other guy.

~~~
swombat
_Also, it's probably better if we don't have to deal with people on zour team
constantly thinking how they're 20 times better/worse than some other guy._

Not really... If you had one of those guys on your team, chances are you could
fire most of the team, thus resolving most of the inter-personal tension
you're referring to. There are both advantages and disadvantages to that, of
course, but in a start-up context, for example, I would say you should have
only top notch people who can work "faster than 20 normal programmers".
Otherwise the communications overheads will kill you.

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dxjones
The article is persuasive in showing that people tend overestimate their own
skill level. For example, people who have very poor social and intellectual
skills (below 25th percentile ) still seem to think they are "above average"
(roughly 62nd percentile).

However, it is also very clear from their graphs that, overall, people simply
seem to map the normal range of abilities (0% to 100%) into the compressed
range (50% to 100%). I wonder if this has anything to do with how we grade in
school, ... namely, anything below 50% is a "failure".

~~~
madcaptenor
It seems pretty likely to me that some part of the effect described here is
just people misunderstanding percentiles.

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sown
I'm unskilled but I am aware of it.

I can hear the seething controlled anger or my co-workers perception of me
that I do nothing or am worthless. I can feel the tiny neutron star of
resentment go off every time they have to talk to me.

I'm an expert on nothing but my only defense is to take work no one wants.

I'm trying to fix it.

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gambling8nt
The real takeaway from this data is not just that the below average half tends
to significantly overestimate its abilities (although that is supported), or
that the extremely effective tend to underestimate their abilities (also
supported), but that, almost completely regardless of skill, people tend to
estimate their own abilities to fall within the third quartile. To me, this
seems like reasonable evidence for the otherwise anecdotal fact that (at least
for some fields) those who are not themselves competent at a subject are poor
judges of competency at that subject, since their primary tool for making
skill assessments will be to assess the confidence others have in their
skills.

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chaosmachine
"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool."
- Shakespeare

You can also find similar quotes attributed to Socrates and Lao Tzu.

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octane
Dunning-Kruger has been the (ironic?) favorite fodder of holier-than-thou tech
scenesters since the early days of EFNet, Slashdot, then reddit, now HN, and
I'm sure it'll make repeated appearances in the next place we all migrate to
after this place gets overrun by the next group of people that so
inconveniently attenuate the smugness flying around in our little echo chamber
of eliteness.

~~~
anatoly
Resist your inner Dunning-Kruger! This post is helpful:
<http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/11/all-are-unaware.html>

