

On thinking probabilistically [pdf] - hdivider
http://www.atm.damtp.cam.ac.uk/mcintyre/mcintyre-thinking-probabilistically.pdf

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aduric
While I generally tend to stand with McIntyre on the Bayesian vs frequentist
debate (whether it is much of a debate anymore given recent advances in AI due
to Bayesian techniques for ML is another discussion) I feel that he doesn't
adequately explain our 'wrong' intuition on the Monty Hall problem. While he
goes on a tirade against the frequentist hold on our education system as being
responsible for our mistaken intuition in this regard, he doesn't explain the
fact that largely _all_ of us are duped by this problem (having taking courses
at school taught by evil frequentists or not). If indeed Bayesian probability
theory is innate in us and we have just been brainwashed in school, it would
seem to me then that those of us not taught frequentist statistics would be
able to solve the problem better than the rest of us. I think this would be an
easy experiment to conduct but I have not seen any experiments done to confirm
this though.

