

Bolivian president's plane forced to divert over a rumor Snowden was on board - stollercyrus
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1784988/US-hopeful-Snowden-will-return-home

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rdl
So now they've upped the ante for Snowden-transport; probably the only
feasible solution would be a warship. Maybe the other option would be a
chartered jet with in-air refueling, flying solely over international waters
(or sovereign countries, like Russia and maybe China).

You can charter a military transport (capable of refueling) from a bunch of
companies, like RUS Aviation. Actual refueling services are harder, probably
would need to be a military, although there are a few operators of contract
aerial refueling service (e.g. Omega) -- unfortunately they have big military
contracts, usually with the US, and thus wouldn't be willing to participate.
You could probably take a military transport, fill it with ferry tanks, and
make a decent go at it, but the problem is most of the cheap-to-charter
aircraft are old inefficient aircraft like the IL-76. I guess with new engines
it wouldn't be horrible, but something like a 737 in ferry mode would be
better. A 777-200ER or 777-200LR would probably be the best. A 747SP is the
only thing I actually know how to charter which has crazy long range (7600nm),
which is almost as much as the 777-200LR (which is new, and thus highly
utilized). A 7600nm range aircraft is just enough to stay in Russian airspace
and then come in through the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap, down the Atlantic, to
Caracas. The total cost of that mission would be far less than the $23mm
Ecuador was willing to give up, but well in excess of $1mm.

A warship would probably be a lot easier, although you'd probably want to go
to the Russian Far East to avoid bottlenecks -- assuming a fifth rate power
like Ecuador, there could easily be "this area closed due to a military
exercise" or other tricks to block it otherwise.

~~~
WildUtah
Soon US allies will be detaining ships from the Bolivian Navy just to check if
Snowden is aboard.

~~~
rdl
(Aside from the issues of Bolivia being landlocked since the War of the
Pacific in 1879...)

Per the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)

Article 95 of UNCLOS: Warships on the high seas have complete immunity from
the jurisdiction of any State other than the flag State.

Article 96 of UNCLOS: Ships owned or operated by a State and used only on
government non-commercial service shall, on the high seas, have complete
immunity from the jurisdiction of any State other than the flag State.

1) An interesting case came up: Argentina's frigate (well, a historical tall
ship, but it was technically the flagship, like the USS Constitution) the ARA
Libertad was seized in Ghana related to the $100b sovereign debt default of
2001, and a NY federal district court judgment for one of the bondholders
against Argentina.

2) The whole point of a warship is that you can't detain it; if it fails to be
able to prevent detention, it's not really very good as a warship, is it?

3) Ragnar Danneskjøld

~~~
mcovey
Do you think America cares what some little treaty says? We effectively own
the UN and can freely flout any agreements we've made through it. I doubt
anyone would be even slightly surprised if America - either is military, a
government agency, or by some other means - decided to raid foreign vessels
looking for a suspect. All in a day's work when you're the world's self
appointed arbiter of justice.

~~~
rdl
The US generally hasn't violated the physical sovereignty of embassies or of
warships on the high seas. Those are from the Congress of Vienna or even
before, not de novo from the UN.

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morganwilde
At this point one has to ask the question: who's afraid of the big, bad USA?
And the answer more and more seems to be "Everybody".

From Putin emphasising that Snowden stops hurting "Our friends the Americans",
to the whole of Western Europe succumbing to their outrageous demands, not to
mention the reversal of Ecuadorian President's change of stance after a talk
with Biden.

Is this the States showing off it's true colours or is it the administration
failing badly at handling this embarrassing situation? I honestly hope it's
the latter.

~~~
Svip
Agreements between these countries exists to allow them to call on the other
signatories to deny specific planes airspace. Portugal could ask the USA to
deny a specific plane airspace into the USA, if it felt so inclined.

I doubt this is pressure, but rather standard diplomatic channels.

~~~
morganwilde
To follow your parallel, let's imagine it's not the plane of the Bolivian
President, but say, Airforce One, flying over South America with Barack Obama
on board towards Washington. Let's say Spain has suspicion that someone that
broke Spanish law is on board.

Please, honestly, tell me you believe that The President's plane would be
grounded?

~~~
Svip
As funny as that would be, I'd doubt it. Though in particular because I doubt
Spain would risk calling for the closing of airspaces for Air Force One in the
first place, because it would eventually mean Spain would have to face a
massive diplomatic incident between them and the USA, and possibly wouldn't
risk it.

It's ridiculous if the USA does not have to apologise following this incident.

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alan_cx
Does any one else thing the US is cashing in a hell of a lot of diplomatic
good will to get one single man?

Yeah, I get the US gov want Snowden, but this seems so over the top, like it
almost feels personal. Has Snowden got something on Obama personally or
something? I have never seen this scale of action from the US for a mere
whistle blower. Bin Laden and his ilk, fine, I understand that that. But even
though IMHO, the leaks show the USA to be very badly behaving, most countries
dont seem to care that much. Internationally and diplomatically, it seems very
quiet.

I dunno. But I do find the response strangely disproportionate.

~~~
_k
There's more to come. And Obama wants to make sure Snowden's the last one to
ever try it. So it's about a lot more than trying to stop or get one single
man.

~~~
jasonkolb
Exactly. This is the modern-day equivalent of a public crucifixion: a warning
that you never, ever want to do something like this yourself.

What's interesting--and a little disconcerting IMO--is that the public opinion
of Snowden seems generally favorable. So the US .gov needs to attack him
publicly while not making it TOO public because it is not generally a healthy
thing for a government to move in opposition to its people. That's how
"unrest" starts. Probably not with Snowden, but if it's the beginning of a
trend... look out.

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jayfuerstenberg
Snowden should just live in the airport and continue his work.

I'm certain people would take care of him financially.

Not that I want him to be trapped but he seems more free there in the sense
that he can write what he wants.

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moondowner
Related to Bolivia: "Bolivia president expels US aid agency"
[http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2013/05/2013512241536...](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2013/05/201351224153629879.html)

I wonder what's going on in the President's mind, he definitely is handling
this situation with positive attitude, always smiling in front of cameras.

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Svip
According to AP, it turns out Bolivia's president was not denied entry into
France and Spain, officials say.[0] As to why Bolivia would make such a claim,
they did not comment.

[0] [http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/03/edward-
snowden-a...](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/03/edward-snowden-
asylum-live#block-51d3eba3e4b0e80ab6523aa8)

~~~
jonmrodriguez
Could it be that the US is trying to spin this by pressuring France and Spain
to delete the radio record and say that Bolivia made it up? Do we know of any
third-party pilots or ground stations who would have heard and recorded the
radio comms?

~~~
Svip
No. In fact, we have only heard through Bolivian officials so far. Even the
Austrians relied on the Bolivian statements.

~~~
patrickk
Unconfirmed audio (which was linked to in the Guardians live stream[1]):
[http://audioboo.fm/boos/1482009-bolivia-air-force-fuerza-
aer...](http://audioboo.fm/boos/1482009-bolivia-air-force-fuerza-aerea-
boliviana-fab001-flight-precaution-landing-vienna-austria)

[1] [http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/03/edward-
snowden-a...](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/03/edward-snowden-
asylum-live#block-51d3eba3e4b0e80ab6523aa8)

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etherael
So, time to start disinfo on all plausible channels indicating that he is
leaving via diplomatic channel X and;

A) fuck with the states of the worland B) provide cover for the real escape
when it comes.

