
Tomorrow’s world: A guide to the next 150 years - fwdbureau
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20130102-tomorrows-world
======
ck2
Where is the mention of millions of drones being used to watch the people by
every police force around the world?

In the USA this will happen by 2020 guaranteed.

These predictions are way too "everything is going to be great".

They are also missing the listing for "there is now an anniversary of a mass
murder by guns for every day of the year in the USA" which is far more likely
in about a decade.

Also missing a marker for when 1% of the world population has more wealth than
the remaining 99%.

My biggest fear of the future is right after they figure out how to make
cheap, unlimited power is going to a massive number of wars. People like to
imagine it will bring world peace but that's not human tendency. We seem to
always go towards killing people.

~~~
dmm
The number of mass shootings per year in the US has not significantly changed
in decades. Nor has the number of people killed in mass shootings.

~~~
ck2
[http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/crime/2012/1...](http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/crime/2012/12/gun_death_tally_every_american_gun_death_since_newtown_sandy_hook_shooting.html)

I guess we are just quibbling about the word "mass"

~~~
dmm
If you're interested in total homicides take a look at the homicides rates for
the past 60 years: <http://i.imgur.com/3bFjZu4.png>

2010 was about the same as it was in 1963. Homicides are not a growing problem
in the US. Homicide rates have been dropping for years.

I got that chart from the Bureau of Justice statistics.
[http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=2221](http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=2221)

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shocks
>> We're sorry but this site is not accessible from the UK

-__-

~~~
jrogers65
Likewise. This is the rationale:

> We have an unusual requirement when it comes to developing the BBC website –
> it carries advertising internationally but not in the UK, and we have to
> build and design for both these situations simultaneously. The site carries
> advertising internationally so that UK licence fee payers don’t cover
> international costs.

<http://www.bbc.co.uk/help/site_versions.shtml>

So essentially the reason that we cannot view the page is because we would see
adverts when we have already paid for the content. What a Kafkaesque
situation.

~~~
shocks
I would rather see adverts than nothing...

~~~
jrogers65
Given that they can already determine the country of origin by the IP quite
effectively, I don't see why they don't just hide the adverts for UK viewers.
This is a good example of well-intentioned insanity.

~~~
archangel_one
I disagree on "quite effectively"; they don't let me see quite a lot of
content from work because they think I'm not in the UK, even though I
physically am a licence payer in London.

To add to the insanity though, I can't see this article _either_.

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ohwp
Although the list is nice I thinks it's a pity there isn't much out-of-the-box
thinking in there. And maybe that's because it will be totally different from
what we ever could imagine.

My grandma is 93 years old. I don't think anyone could ever imagine a
wireless-telephone-phonograph-motionpicture-talktoeveryone-device around the
time she was born.

~~~
maurits
Sure they could. What they perhaps missed is that this magic device would be
used to look at funny cat pictures and share what you had for breakfast with
the world. And that people would tune in to that.

~~~
ryandvm
[http://realdanlyons.com/wp-
content/uploads/2009/02/futureman...](http://realdanlyons.com/wp-
content/uploads/2009/02/futureman.png)

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petercooper
33/1 in the 2060s for "first cloned human" seems conservative, unless it's
merely because of current laws. There was a failed attempt in 2004 with a
cloned embryo but it doesn't seem as if the process and technology is
particularly beyond reach. I'd be more surprised if we don't have Star Trek-
style transporters by the 2060s.

~~~
avoutthere
Similarly conservative, I think, is that it will be the year 2150 before a
human lives to 150. Considering the pace of advancement in the fields of
genetics, pharmaceuticals, and organ-replacement, I would expect this much
sooner.

~~~
petercooper
Maybe the thinking there is someone who's 150 in 2150 would have been born in
2000 and even with advances in genetics, maybe it's only likely to work if the
technology reaches someone currently in the prime of life.

(That is, if we have the means in 2050, it might simply not work on a then 100
year old.)

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melling
When will I be able to get on a supersonic flight and fly at twice the speed
of sound from NYC to Tokyo ? How about a 300mph maglev from SF to LA? I'd like
to commute from LA to SF every day.

Moore's law is great but we really seem to have stalled with moving people and
goods from point A to point B.

~~~
guynamedloren
Not long now.

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop>

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tocomment
How do you read the odds numbers? Is 8/1 likely or not likely?

~~~
netcan
In UK gambling conventions, 8/1 means you win £8 on a £1 bet. So 12.5% chance,
if the bookie is a non profit.

~~~
mmahemoff
Close :). You receive £9 on a £1 bet (you get your outlay back), so it's 1/9 ~
11.1%

<http://www.isfa.com/odds-probability-chart.php>

~~~
netcan
you're right. oops.

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albertzeyer
I'm missing links to the specific sources and more background details in many
cases.

You might also be interested in this: <http://www.futuretimeline.net/>
(<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2458521>)

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netcan
likely < 2018 - your computer has a sense of smell / Arctic free of summer ice
/ immortal mouse /

likely > 2040 - Cars purely automated & driver free by.

Looking at this article is seems that although we might be able to take good
guesses at whats coming, we have got no idea when.

~~~
suby
Why would we want a computer that can smell?

~~~
ippisl
Diagnosing some diseases , detecting landmines , detecting food safety,
detecting tracks(like dogs), analysis of biocompatiblity of couples(through
pheromons),improved robotic chefs can all achieved by smelling.

In general , smelling , i.e. analyzing the volatile compounds materials emit
can teach us some things about those materials and what processes they are
going through.Those seem like usefull capabilities for many industries.

------
suby
Immortal mice in 2015? Tax abolished in the USA?

Some of these are very reasonable, like the driving car in 2030, but some of
them are pretty far fetched and I don't understand the reasoning behind them.
Why would we abolish tax in the USA in 2090? How would that even work?

~~~
sputknick
I think the tax idea is interesting. They have it 55 years after the
singularity. I've heard (singularity advocates) say that once the singularity
occurs our economy will double every few months. That means that after 55
years the average person would earn 9 figure salaries. At that point the
government could probably pretty easily run on donations versus taxes. If
thats the case I think 55 years after the singularity is a conservative
estimate. I'd bet it will happen less than 5 years after the singularity.
Assuming the singularity occurs of course.

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Sharlin
The odds seem to be all over the place. 8:1 for a superintelligence in 2045
but 100:1 for a mere corporation-status AI in 2112? Unless they mean that it's
highly unlikely that the concept of a "corporation" has any meaning in a
hundred years...

~~~
gavinpc
On the contrary, "corporation" in a hundred years will mean exactly what it
means today: "person." Ergo, this is how robots will get around the Turing
test.

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samsolomon
I would love to see a 3rd-party candidate as president before 2025.

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JonSkeptic
They forgot one event...

2013 - Pigs Fly

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taligent
One year for a digital currency to be accepted as US tender and two years for
Facebook to beaten by (assumably) Google+ ?

Seems just a tad optimistic there.

~~~
TheCondor
Me thinks Facebook will be eclipsed by a Chinese "social network". Maybe one
with compulsory membership or something.

