
VW says combustion cars will fade away after 2026 - evo_9
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/foreign/2018/12/05/vw-says-combustion-cars-will-fade-away/38677503/
======
btilly
I've pointed this out in other discussions, but might as well point it out
again.

One of the problems that VW is about to encounter is that its interests as a
manufacturer run directly opposite to its dealers' interests. VW wants to
start selling pure electric cars because that is where the market is going.
However any VW dealer who convinces a customer to buy an ICE car has also sold
themselves good odds of a future revenue stream maintaining that car. However
if they sell an electric car they are going to see that car less often.

Therefore VW can make electric cars, but its dealers will try to not sell
them. This opens up an opportunity for new brands because people in the market
for electric cars are likely to try to buy electric cars similar to the ones
that they see on the road. Which means that shiny Tesla, those glorified golf
carts you sometimes see, and all of the up and coming electric car brands in
China and India that would love to break into Western markets.

The history of disruptive innovation suggests that the end result is likely to
be that people switch to new companies and most existing car companies will go
out of business. So far everything about the transition to electric has
followed the usual course (including established companies publicly announcing
that they are switching technologies because they know where the future is),
so there is no reason to believe that the result will be different this time.

~~~
outworlder
> However if they sell an electric car they are going to see that car less
> often.

This is something many people don't get. There are far, far less parts (moving
ones even) in EVs. Things like spark plugs(and the cables), fuel injectors,
filters, alternators, fuel pumps, the myriad of belts and pulleys, valves.
They don't even have a crankshaft. Or a clutch. Or much of a transmission for
that matter. Power steering is generally electric too (no fluid or pumps there
either), as is climate control. Even radiators are not usually present (maybe
in the batteries, used far less often, mostly when charging). It does have a
bunch more electronics, all solid state. Even the normal lead acid 12v battery
they all have lasts longer, as there is no starter motor to pull lots of amps
at once (they are also more gently topped off).

Parts that cannot exist cannot fail, and cannot be charged. Were not for the
battery degradation ghost, people would be switching in droves already. But
they are familiar with laptop batteries, and they think car batteries degrade
the same way.

If the day comes where you can just drive to an autozone or the like, give
them your old battery and drive off with a new one at a reasonable price,
that's when things will suddenly shift.

~~~
j79
> Were not for the battery degradation ghost, people would be switching in
> droves already.

When you say people, are you referring to people who are in a position where
they could buy an electric car, but have not yet?

I personally feel the vast majority of people have not switched because:

1) Cost

2) Options (we're a country that loves SUVs/Trucks)

3) Housing / Charging

Funny enough, I could probably afford an electric vehicle, but I have no way
of charging that vehicle due to my housing situation.

~~~
zjaffee
3 is huge, if you're a renter, why would you buy a car where you have no idea
if you'll be able to charge it should you move. I'd also add on the fact that
you still can't reasonably take road trips with an electric car in the same
way you can with a traditional one.

~~~
sizzle
Car rental is affordable and you aren't putting wear and tear on your daily
driver. Win/win for long trips

------
stevemadere
Yeah, but they're gonna include a software patch that turns off the IC engine
whenever an emissions detector is attached so it will always appear to be
carbon neutral.

~~~
jmathai
When I read the headline I couldn't help but think "how is VW still in
business?".

If you're not familiar with the degree to which they deceived regulators and
the public I suggest the Netflix documentary.
[https://www.netflix.com/title/80118100](https://www.netflix.com/title/80118100)
(Season 1, Episode 1).

~~~
yason
The issue is a bit two-fold. Yes, they did shaft the regulators to get things
green on paper but the owners of Volkswagen cars weren't exactly deprived of
anything directly.

Here in Europe there are people who have deliberately refused the VW fix
because they'd rather keep the better fuel economy and engine response rather
than comply with emissions regulations. Not complying is not exactly unheard
of: instead of replacing faulty units people rip off diesel particulate
filters and block EGR valves on diesel engines for performance and engine
longevity reasons. Reducing pollution apparently isn't valued by the end-user
market that much. And European car owners are very much price-sensitive
because motoring in general is expensive and taxed high.

Owning a Volkswagen isn't basically a worse experience than before. Their PR
image might have suffered a hit, sure. But VW is huge and people in Europe
still buy them. Diesel has been a bit unpopular in Europe recently but that's
mostly because some cities are limiting or planning to limit old diesel cars
from accessing the city centres.

~~~
jmathai
At a very micro level it maybe a true statement that someone wasn't deprived
of anything they valued.

However, an automaker has a responsibility at a macro level because they sell
so many cars.

Here's what seemed exceptional in the VW case.

1) They built cars with software that had a single purpose of misleading
(lying is a more accurate term here) to regulators on their efficiency.

2) When caught they denied it.

3) When they couldn't deny it anymore they updated the software to mislead
again (lying in hopes they could continue with the first lie)

4) By this point the highest levels in VW were involved.

Not meeting emissions regulations may not be a big deal for everyone but it
impacts others and it has direct impact on others.

I'm not saying you are defending VW but I don't think anything they did was
remotely defensible.

~~~
yason
_I 'm not saying you are defending VW but I don't think anything they did was
remotely defensible._

I don't think it could be considered defensible at any level, either. But I do
maintain that the _market_ really doesn't seem to care: therefore VW are still
in business which is what the parent was wondering. If you had bought a VW you
really wouldn't have any reason to not keep driving it, as the end-user.

Conversely, I do think people would be absolutely furious if VW had cheated in
emissions and fuel mileage tests to make their cars seem to run on very little
fuel but in practise the realistic mileage would be _much_ lower for the
majority of owners. And I mean much lower than the general gap between
measured and actual fuel efficiency. In that case VW might really be
struggling to survive if they didn't have better technology to show the
market.

------
costcopizza
Slightly misleading title. VW's last generation of combustion motors will be
released in 2026. Basic motor platforms can and do last for decades after
initially introduced, so I think closer to 2040 is a safer bet.

~~~
stcredzero
When you're talking about a "fade" in audio, there's a start time, an end
time, and a duration. So it's not at all inaccurate from that point of view to
say that combustion motors will fade away after 2026.

~~~
jessriedel
Things that are not technically inaccurate but give the typical reader the
wrong impression (e.g., me in this case) is pretty much the definition of
"misleading".

~~~
stcredzero
Many people are familiar with the media vocabulary of audio production and
cinema/video editing. Just the word "after" is enough clarification.

~~~
jessriedel
"Many" is not enough if most are misled. "After" doesn't fix the key ambiguity
that is being exploited.

~~~
awesomepeter
Is the word "fading" really so hard? It's a pretty common word IMO, not even
specific to audio/video..

~~~
jessriedel
I'm making an empirical claim: If you show people the headline, will they
interpret it as a claim that there will no longer be a majority of combustion
cars on the road by 2030, even though that's not the claim being made in the
article. Not sure what else to tell you other than my confidence that a survey
would show this.

------
jsemrau
A lot of things about mobility will change over the next decade. And I wrote
quite extensively about it in the past. Urbanization will reduce the need of
car ownership. Fleet maintainability will overtake planned obsolescence.

[1][https://medium.com/@jsemrau/mobility-illuminates-the-end-
of-...](https://medium.com/@jsemrau/mobility-illuminates-the-end-of-
ownership-3a73146d1ff5)

------
ilamont
How will EVs or vehicles running on alternate fuel sources work in areas where
there is no fuel distribution system to support them?

~~~
exelius
You know how there is already a divide between people who live in cities and
people who live in rural areas?

It’s about to get a whole lot worse.

~~~
chcknsammich
I live in a city, I have no garage, an EV is impractical for me.

I grew up outside of a city, with a garage, and electric.

It isn't the 1890s. Cities are less equipped for self-owned EVs than the
rural.

~~~
outworlder
> I live in a city, I have no garage, an EV is impractical for me.

Here's my heuristic. What are the places your car usually spends parked at,
and do these places have at least a power outlet you can plug into(a proper
charging stations is better of course)? For most city-dwellers, that's either
their home, their workplace, or any other place they spend some time on
(supermarkets?). Do any of these places, or places nearby, provide a way for
you to charge? If yes, you should be fine.

Failing that, it starts to become less practical, as you'll have to rely on
quick-charging (if it is even available).

Honestly, this isn't much of a concern medium term. Yes, it's problem now.
But, as the EV fleet increases, so will the market pressures for a proper
charging infrastructure. It costs much less than creating a gas
infrastructure. Most places have electricity, they may require some upgrades,
but that's relatively cheap (compare that to adding more gas stations).

~~~
Gibbon1
Walking to friends that own EV's one metric really is how many days can you go
between charges. And the ratio of miles driven vs charging opportunities.

And old lady that drives 1500 miles a year to go shopping might well find all
of her charging needs are satisfied by plugging the car in while shopping
Petco and Walmart. Because at that rate she only needs the car plugged in for
an hour a week.

1500miles/52weeks -> 30 miles/week / 30 miles range per charging hour ->
1hr/week.

------
dman
Isnt VW opening themselves upto the Osborne effect by mentioning this?
([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect))?

~~~
anticensor
Mr.Porsche's first car was petrol-electric hybrid, because he deemed clutches
unreliable. And he got it right, because clutches wear out so quickly that DSG
boxes, after 80 years of gearbox development, need clutch adjustments every
five years. He should have developed the Beetle as a petrol-electric hybrid
with continuous throttle and resistive brake instead of a petrol car with 4+1
switching gearbox.

~~~
mhh__
1\. DSGs are still relatively new 2\. Most clutches these days can easily go
untouched throughout at least one owners use of a car.

------
sonnyblarney
In Norway, yes. In the rest of the world which is #1 price conscious, cars
will be along for a while unless they are near the equator with tons of
sunlight and cheap panels + functioning grid.

~~~
Joe-Z
Are you arguing that the lead Norway has in EVs stems from Norwegians just
being morally superior and not „#1 price conscious“?

Because from what I‘ve heard the Norwegian government is pumping out a whole
lot of subsidies to push EVs (including allowing to use bus lanes, which other
vehicles are barred from)

~~~
sonnyblarney
They are rich and therefore in a position to be 'morally superior' :)

They have some pretty aggressive plans on electric cars, and they're very
wealthy (ironically from oil...) consumers can buy them, and buy them at a
high rate.

The Scandinavian countries will probably be first to 'no combustion' cars, my
#1 bet is Norway, #2 Sweden, #3 Denmark. #4 Netherlands. After that, who
knows. Maybe Hong Kong or Singapore i.e. where it's 'small, rich and the
economics work'.

~~~
jbay808
America isn't rich?

~~~
sonnyblarney
Norwegians are per capita significantly richer than Americans.

GDP per capita is a lot higher, and they have a sovereign wealth fund that
owns almost 2% of all public stocks in the entire world.

So 'America is rich' and Americans on average have quite a lot of cash, but
overall, not so much as they will flip to electric at a $40K price tag.

The Norwegians will flip to 100% electric soon. Also for social/political
reasons as well though.

Kuwaitis are rich but they're not going electric anytime soon.

------
megaman8
It's great to see a car manufacturer taking their environmental
responsibilities so seriously, especially since it's in their own interest.

but, i hope electric cars will be more reliable than tesla has been. Tesla's
reliability is now 3rd from the bottom, although i know there are a lot of
reasons for this: (lots of new tech etc).

~~~
beatgammit
Well, I think they have to since they got burned so badly with the diesel
debacle.

------
jiveturkey
headline is 2026, body says 2050.

> After 2050, there may still be some gasoline and diesel models

There will still be plenty. My own estimate is that if electric (battery) cars
are still a thing in 2050, it will be 50% that and 50% ICE. But more likely,
again just IMHO as an interested but non-expert party, if h2 generation is
"solved" sufficiently well by then, it will be 50-75% H2 fuel cell and 25%
ICE.

The plan to deliver H2 instead of natural gas to homes by 2032 by Northern Gas
is an example of how the H2 infrastructure can take over.

------
LrnByTeach
The rate at which battery prices are dropping and self-driving technology is
being developed, VW plan about combustion engines is right.

Here is the most probable scenario by 2025:

2022 : electric self-driving on-demand FLEET car 1000 miles/month subscription
for $350/months from Google, Uber, Lyft

2025: same car 1000 miles/month subscription for $250/month. Individual car
ownership will reduce by at least 35% from 2018 ownership levels in developed
countries.

by 2023, Google will supply Self-driving OS software to all FLEETs (except
China Didi which develops it's own) and discontinue their own fleet running
business.

GM, Toyota, VW, Renault forced to run own FLEETS to stay in business like
Uber, DiDi

~~~
sdinsn
That's a pretty overconfident estimate. There's no way there will be fleets of
electric self-driving cars at 2022, it will be at least 2030 or later.

~~~
LrnByTeach
in 2022 start of fleet cars don't mean fleets should replace 30% of today's
car ownership.

If you live in any city or suburb in USA today, electric bikes from Bird,
Lime, Skip companies are left on the rode side waiting to be activated by
mobile phone from anybody.

Same thing start with self-driving electric cars starting 2022 . It starts
with 5% (in number) of today's cars in a given neighborhood. You just activate
with mobile phone as we all do TODAY with these electric bikes/scooters in our
neighborhood.

As you know google's Waymo just started these on-demand cars in Phoneix
Arizona few weeks ago, any pre-registered users can hail this self-driving car
from phone. There are keeping a safe driver just sitting idle as of today.

I am confident on January 1, 2020 ( in select USA cities) Google will have No
safety human driver and cars will be parked in neighborhood just like these
Bird, Lime scooters.

~~~
sdinsn
The difference is that scooters cost a few hundred to buy, so they get paid
off easily. A self-driving car is not cheap, usage costs would be far too
expensive. I'm confident that your estimates will be far off.

------
cheerioty
I say VW will fade away before 2026.

~~~
jacquesm
I say they won't:

[https://www.carscoops.com/2018/09/vw-group-set-record-
year-d...](https://www.carscoops.com/2018/09/vw-group-set-record-year-
delivered-7-3-million-vehicles-far/)

~~~
blattimwind
HN seems pretty notorious to me for hating VW while being largely oblivious to
the actions of others.

------
purplezooey
But the sound. A carbureted SBC sounds so good.

~~~
brewdad
Plenty of ICE cars have artificial engine sound pumped into the cabin today.
We could easily do the same for EVs.

~~~
kojeovo
Not the same thing. Someone who likes the sound of an ICE typically doesn't
like fake engine noise.

~~~
brewdad
I agree it's not exactly the same, but it can be pretty close. If that is
one's lone objection to driving an electric, it's a pretty weak one. It is a
very solvable problem.

------
temporallobe
I have nothing in principle against ED vehicles (besides the unfortunate
designation “ED”), but I am completely against them in practice. Especially in
the US, we have no infrastructure for it. Americans, myself included, love to
hit the road for vacations. Electric cars simply cannot handle the rigors of
long-distance travel with the engine load of air conditioning or heat, a car
full of kids and luggage, and a few amps of accessories (chargers, PSUs for
devices, etc.). No one has even proposed anything close to a reasonable
solution for these things. The ICE vehicle works so well and has catapulted
our economy over the past century because the fuel is so readily available and
very quick to fill, and we have built an entire nation on a huge network of
gas stations. Sorry, no matter how many futurists want to believe in the
Church of ED, the electic car revolution can’t and won’t happen until we
completely revamp our infrastructure. And the country isn’t just the idyllic
land of California where everyone drinks at juice bars and has solar-paneled
houses, and commutes 22.7 miles per day with a hybrid or EV, there is Alaska
and West Virginia, where it’s as rural as you can imagine where the ICE is the
most reliable source of transportation. VW, and Europe in general are
delusional at best.

~~~
yosito
Changing our infrastructure is a bit of a chicken and egg problem. But our
infrastructure is rapidly changing. Charging stations are everywhere. Even in
West Virginia. And we're just seeing the tip of the iceberg as far as changes
to our infrastructure go. Yeah, our infrastructure is based on oil. But we're
definitely not incapable of building out new infrastructure as needed. And
when electric cars become more economical than gas cars over the next decade,
the (debatable) fact that they're bad for family road trips and other specific
applications won't matter. You can always rent a gas-powered vehicle if you
need one, but owning one is going to become less and less efficient.

~~~
temporallobe
It’s not just specific applications, it’s more than that. For example, I
happen to have a long commute in a very congrsted area, which kills range. My
office does not have charging stations. I personally don’t have a charging
station in my garage, so I would have to charge my EV overnight. Not a huge
problem, but these kinds of issues make me and most people pause when
considering an EV. That’s not a specific application, that’s a very common
one. And yes, I have seen maybe one or two charging stations in my area of WV,
but that’s it. You’re right, it is indeed a chicken and egg problem, but I
disagree with the notion that our infrastructure is changing rapidly. If it’s
happening at all, it’s very slow and sporadic. Nobody in my area has EVs nor
would they want one not only because of all the things I’ve already mentioned,
but also for many things I haven’t. Tbe pickup truck is king here, for
example.

The EV is a superb idea and I will welcome it with open arms when governments
mandate, subsidize, build, and generally support it, and when car companies
solve the problems inherent to the EV. Until then, it is a fantasy that most
people will simply not adopt for pragmatic reasons.

And yes, absolutely we are capable of building that infrastructure, but we are
simply not willing. And let’s be real - car makes are not even making EVs (and
I don’t mean hybrids), nor are they interested in making them because there is
very little market for them. Again, yes, a chiken/egg problem, but a very real
one.

