
Barents Sea seems to have crossed a climate tipping point - okket
https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/06/barents-sea-seems-to-have-crossed-a-climate-tipping-point/
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andyjohnson0
_" Many of the threats we know are associated with climate change are slow
moving. Gradually rising seas, a steady uptick in extreme weather events, and
more all mean that change will come gradually to much of the globe."_

Wicked Problems [1] are going to kick our arses over the next century, and I
don't see how we're going to get through it without large-scale death and
horror. There just isn't the political or social will to address the problems
- and if we ever do get our act together then I can't see how it'll be
anything other than too late. Mose things on HN seem utterly trivial when I'm
reminded of this.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wicked_problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wicked_problem)

~~~
ThomPete
Personally, I would worry more about a meteor wiping out humanity than climate
change.

There isn't political or social will because those on the extreme ends of both
sides are controlling it making it impossible to meet somewhere in the middle.
Which is what politics have to do to move anywhere.

Many of us understand very well that the climate is changing and that humans
might have something to do with it, we just don't know to what extent.

But even posing such an idea will get you put into the "climate denier"
category in a heartbeat and stop all rational discussion.

There are other ways to think about this. Here is one.

Humans have historically been living at the mercy of nature, nature is rather
unforgiving and quite harsh.

Over the time we have adjusted to climate change and we always will have to as
the climate will always be changing.

I would personally rather be in our current situation and have a fighting
chance to improve than being left with the chances I had as a person 200 years
ago for even basic natural causes.

The wicked problem isn't that there isn't political will but that we can't
both secure the continued prosperity of humanity and at the same time not have
an impact on the environment we live.

The way out of our problems is not to stop up but to continue improving
technology and energy utilization. A great start would be to get back to
nuclear but I am under no illusion that there are many rationally minded
people left in the environmental organizations anymore.

~~~
blindwatchmaker
> Many of us understand very well that the climate is changing and that humans
> might have something to do with it, we just don't know to what extent.

Could you elaborate? I was under the impression that even conservative
estimates by reputable climatologists showed some pretty drastic changes.

~~~
Filligree
They do, and they've consistently underestimated things so far. The guy's just
a denier.

~~~
jeffreyrogers
That's not true. The climate models typically show larger rises in temperature
than have actually happened.

I found this within 5 seconds of Googling:
[https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/17/climate-models-versus-
cli...](https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/17/climate-models-versus-climate-
reality/)

I'm not sure how good the source is, but it is consistent with what I've seen
elsewhere.

~~~
polotics
Complex systems have less linearity than expected, but more hysteresis. The
flat(ter) early naughties have already been well explained, mostly taking 98
as reference is where the effect comes from, we caught up since then, and
ain't slowing down.

~~~
ThomPete
Yet everything is getting better, not worse because we've become better at
dealing with issues. The number of people who died from drought has gone down
not up according to some studies. Number of people out of extreme poverty is
going up is going up not down.

[https://reason.org/wp-
content/uploads/files/deaths_from_extr...](https://reason.org/wp-
content/uploads/files/deaths_from_extreme_weather_1900_2010.pdf)

[https://ourworldindata.org/famines](https://ourworldindata.org/famines)

And the world is has gotten greener:

[https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-
fer...](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-
fertilization-greening-earth)

And so we are back to the beginning. We don't really know as much as some like
to claim. So what is the goal of humanity? How do we measure human
flourishing? How do we ensure we still get people to become more resourceful?

We can't have our cake and eat it.

------
ForHackernews
The whole world is probably past the tipping point. People who talk about
halting or reversing climate change at this point are pollyannas or liars. The
only thing we can realistically do is try to mitigate the most severe
consequences.

[https://www.vox.com/2016/10/4/13118594/2-degrees-no-more-
fos...](https://www.vox.com/2016/10/4/13118594/2-degrees-no-more-fossil-fuels)

~~~
germinalphrase
And yet, I can get fresh ocean fish in the middle of a Minneapolis winter.
What a glorious time to be alive! /s

~~~
saiya-jin
jokes aside, this is mindset of most people - things are good, look my
backyard is not burning yet, I can buy so much stuff.

I wonder what is the most appropriate course of action - people need to suffer
a bit to realize how bad things are and going to be. Comfortable 1st world
lives need a bit of a shake up to really change things.

