

Elop running out of time to turn Nokia around - mtgx
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/19/us-nokia-strategy-idUSBRE88I0IQ20120919

======
EnderMB
Nokia were the kings of mobile back when phones were simple, so why the hell
haven't they ditched Windows Phone and made phones simple once again?!

I bet there's a huge market out there for older users that want a simple and
usable phone with stripped functionality, and it's a tactic that worked very
well for Nintendo when they realised that they couldn't compete with Sony and
Microsoft in the console market. A lot of older users just want a mobile phone
so they can get in touch with family, send a few texts to people and
occasionally browse the web.

If linked with a company like Yahoo (providing mail and other basic cloud
stuff) I'd be shocked if a phone that focused on being a phone and not a
smartphone didn't sell millions amongst the tech-illiterate and older
audience.

~~~
gnaffle
Guess what, there is already a phone that works wonderfully for people who
only wants to call people, send a few texts and occasionally browse the web.
It's called an iPhone and my parents have one. They perfectly fit the use case
you're describing.

They haven't downloaded any apps, they browse the web once in a while, but
mostly they use the phones for calling and SMS (and my father checks his
email). With their previous Nokia dumbphones, they never even learnt how to
use the T9 dictionary.

Of course, it's still an expensive phone, but many of those older people get
their iPhones for free when their children upgrade to a newer model.

~~~
bad_user
There are multiple problems with your statement ...

\- It shows you're an American, otherwise you wouldn't hand-wave the price of
an iPhone, even when speaking about phones being given by kids to parents.

\- the iPhone seems simple to you because you've gotten used to it. Compared
with classic rotary phones, the iPhone is anything but simple - of course, for
the provided functionality, the iPhone has a lot of features packed in a tight
package that has a pretty simple interface by today's standards. But regarding
parents, on the contrary, I've watched my mom struggle with an iPhone, before
she got back to an older Nokia model, with a simple key pad and no extra
functionality other than SMS.

\- because of the specs, the iPhone consumes a lot of battery, even by using
it only for your basic needs - it's sure nice to have a phone with a battery
that lasts for 7 days of normal usage.

\- mobile phones are designed to be usable for 2 years, after which the
battery and the hardware start falling apart.

Also, the T9 dictionary was really awkward. I don't think anybody was
suggesting that Nokia should return to their older models. I do think that
some company in the future will come up with a sexy design and a set of
features for simple phones that customers will absolutely love.

~~~
gnaffle
\- I'm not American. I don't upgrade my phone every year, but when I do the
old one usually gets handed over to a family member. I think this is quite
common, although some may sell it for a price depending on the age of the
phone.

\- Turning off WiFi, GPS and bluetooth, you get quite a bit of battery life
out of an iPhone.

\- I can only answer for the people I've met who are non-technical. They had
no problem using an old Nokia phone to make calls, but for everything else
(including contact lists and SMS) the iPhone is easier.

The only usability problems I've discovered has to do with the buttons, as
they don't discover what the sleep/wake button and silent/ringer button does,
and because they think the Home button is an "end whatever you're doing"
button, which makes them push that button to end a call (this of course
doesn't work since it just returns to the home screen with the call
backgrounded).

Since I'm curious, what was your mother struggling with?

\- The iPhone hardware has a tendency to last a long time unless the display
breaks. My mothers phone is from 2009, for instance. Although I agree that
replacing the battery is a problem since you have to know someone with a
screwdriver or pay to have it replaced.

~~~
bad_user
I don't really know why my mom struggled with it, but I guess it's because of
the tree-like interface, and because normal users are used to rote learn their
way around such interfaces, the classic problem of graphical interfaces ...
she's used to all the options being available at first glance.

For instance if I wanted to make a call right now on my Android, I would press
the green button with a phone icon on it. The logs view would pop-up because
that's the last view I've used. To dial a number manually, I would have to
select the "Keypad" tab. To search of a contact I have to press the "Contacts"
tab, which on Android at least is a different app with a different top bar of
tabs. Clicking on a name would show me that person's profile. I would have to
do another click on his phone number to actually initiate the call.

This is in contrast with her Nokia phone - to dial a number out of memory, you
just need to start dialing the number on the always available physical key
pad, then you press the green button, which is also always available on
display. To search for a contact, you press the down arrow and then upon
selecting the desired entry you press the green button. To look in the logs,
maybe to dial the last number dialed, you press the up arrow, dialing
involving a press on the green button again.

So basically I think it's because every basic use-case involves a number of 2
or 3 steps that can be easily remembered because all the buttons are on
display and there's also some consistency (dialing involves either typing or
selecting a phone number + a press on the green button). Of course, she
probably could have learned to use an iPhone if she really wanted to. But she
doesn't have the patience anymore.

------
lawdawg
I think Nokia seriously underestimated the "Instagram/Zynga" factor when they
decided to go with Windows Phone. The average consumer does a minimal amount
of research before buying a phone, and typically buy whatever the sales
representative recommends (unless they are looking for a specific model, like
the iPhone or SGS3). But on top of that, consumers will still ask questions
like:

1\. Oh my friend uses this app called "Instagram", does Windows Phone have
"Instagram"?

2\. I want to play "Words with Friends" with my friends, can I do that on
Windows Phone?

If the sales representative is honest (I mean he has to be or will get an
instant return), the consumer is just going to pick up an equally cheap or
cheaper Android phone.

The 920 does not solve this problem despite having pretty sweet hardware. Not
only that, its a huge phone like the SGS3, but quite heavy, which will turn
off a lot of consumers who want big screens, but light devices (you don't see
Apple making bigger phones that are _heavier_ ). Even if the camera is the
best on the market (and to be honest, I don't think it will be noticeably
better than the iPhone5 and upcoming Android phones), without useful apps for
sharing those photos, people won't be drawn to the platform.

Finally, things like wireless charging and using the phone with gloves on are
not major selling points, just like NFC has never been a major selling point.

~~~
gnaffle
The sales representative isn't always honest, but he _will_ try to push
whatever model the carrier is interested in pushing. Right now, carriers are
interested in pushing Android since that ecosystem is aligned with the
carriers interests (easily customizable).

Carriers are generally not interested in Windows Mobile and Nokia, and very
few carriers are interested in pushing the iPhone even though they have to
carry it due to customer demand.

~~~
rbanffy
> the conclusion is that they should switch to Android and sell commodity
> smartphones?

I had my phone upgraded a couple months back and I certainly saw a lot of
pushing for Lumia phones. Even when I asked specifically for an Android phone,
the salesperson wanted me to consider a Lumia. After some friendly
interrogation, she admitted the commission for selling a Lumia was about twice
as much as the commission she would get for selling my the Android device, and
part of it would be paid directly by Nokia through some incentive program.

Microsoft is spending a ton of money on it and a lot is channelled directly
through Nokia.

~~~
gnaffle
That's right, I forgot that they had a push for the Lumia a while back, and
maybe it's still ongoing. But even so, the sales have been low.

------
jeswin
When he took over, Elop stated that it is 'a battle of ecosystems'. Having
spent significant time with Nokia devices (including Maemo/Meego), I
completely agree with him. A few years back Android itself was second choice
for most mobile developers, and it was almost impossible for Nokia to get them
to write apps. Also, Android picked up because of Google; if Samsung made
Android it would have gone the Bada way.

WP8 is the first OS that gives Nokia a fighting chance against iOS/Android
devices.

\- I have only seen positive reviews of this OS.

\- It is do or die for MS as well, expect massive ad spend this season.

\- Shared kernel with Windows. Attractive to millions of Windows developers.
(Windows isn't cool anymore; but there are way, way more developers on Windows
than any other platform.)

\- If resource constrained WP7 is anything to go by, WP8 will be smoother than
any android phone in the market.

This is Elop's first, last and only chance. I'd rather give the man a fair
chance.

Edit: formatting.

~~~
Toshio
> Windows isn't cool anymore;

windows has never been cool; ubiquitous is the word you're probably thinking
of.

~~~
bornhuetter
In the 90's, having a Windows gaming machine was _cool_.

~~~
angstrom
Especially considering consoles didn't have multiplayer beyond the living
room. Having access to B.NET, Kali, MPlayer, and other gaming networks of the
day was very cool.

~~~
bornhuetter
I still think my dual boot Windows/Linux machine is cool, but I seem to be in
a minority around here. Haters gonna hate.

------
blinkingled
Once Microsoft buys them at a suitable price, they've got nothing to fear.
Just like they did with Bing, Windows Phone, Xbox etc. Microsoft has deep
enough pockets to continue pumping money into Nokia for making WP handsets
until they gain meaningful market share.

I am not trying to critique Microsoft here - just that I see that as a likely
scenario given the past and current circumstances. It only helps that both
Microsoft (with Windows Phone 8) and Nokia (with hardware) are doing things
mostly right.

~~~
Toshio
> has deep enough pockets to continue pumping money into Nokia for making WP
> handsets until they gain meaningful market share.

I'll believe it when I see it.

Them achieving meaningful market share with windowsphone would shock a lot of
us in the industry since microsoft's track record so far has been that they
suck pretty badly at hardware rollouts.

~~~
bornhuetter
> they suck pretty badly at hardware rollouts.

The Xbox, and MS branded keyboards and mice are all highly successful and
highly regarded.

------
brudgers
_"Nokia still sells almost a million phones a day"_

 _"Greenwich's Rehle said Nokia should focus on rolling out smartphones
running on Google's Android software for millions of consumers in emerging
markets who often still prefer Nokia's brand. Android models cost under $100
while the cheapest Windows Phone costs around $200"_

OK, so they're selling a million phones a day and not making a significant
profit. The reason is that too few of the phones are high margin smartphones.

And from this the conclusion is that they should switch to Android and sell
commodity smartphones? This doesn't sound like analysis. It sounds like
Microsoft bashing.

~~~
rbanffy
> the conclusion is that they should switch to Android and sell commodity
> smartphones?

They already sell commodity phones. In these markets people don't pick Nokia
because of brand or features - they pick it because they need voice and text
calls and Nokia's phones seem to be a slightly better value proposition
(rugged, long battery life) than other low-end units.

Once other manufacturers manage to bring Android 2.x into the S40 price range
(something Nokia certainly won't be able to accomplish with WP8), you'll see
quick erosion of Nokia's share because other sets will have a much better
value proposition.

------
wkz
IMHO Nokia had a promising platform in Meego. Would be interesting to see what
would happen if it was given half a chance.

~~~
mtgx
I don't think they have any time left to risk it on going all-in with another
platform with non-existent market share. If they fail to get significant
momentum with WP8 this year, the kind of momentum they need to actually
recover and also replace the Symbian sales, then they need to immediately
switch to Android. If they want they can still do Meego on the side. But going
Meego-only would be an even worse decision.

~~~
gnaffle
Agreed. It's too late now, and it's very sad to see.

If they had gone all-in on Meego a few years earlier, or chosen it instead of
WP7 and made it run Android apps out of the box, maybe they would have had a
fighting chance.

------
nvrmor
I'd buy if they went back to meego/harmattan

~~~
quonn
They could sell this to a few geeks. But that's it. Meego never came even
close to Android in terms of quality. And ern Android would probably not work
for Nokia. Nokia is doing exactly the right thing - just years too late.

~~~
zmmmmm
The main reason they are "too late" is that MS has screwed them - first by
limiting the capabilities of WP7 phones, then by betraying them right at the
time they launched their flagship and saying there'd be no upgrades to WP8 for
ANY phones, and then finally for forcing them to wait forever to get Windows 8
devices out. In my view the Microsoft partnership has been a disaster for
Nokia.

------
Toshio
If Nokia survives as an independent company, it is going to shrink
considerably. They don't need a lot of people to be a little patent troll
still making a product just to avoid the NPE pigeon hole.

~~~
shin_lao
They really have good products with the Lumia phones. I think they will make
it, however I agree it will probably not as an independant company.

~~~
danieldk
The Lumia hardware is really nice and robust. Lumia with Android would
probably sell like hotcakes _right now_.

Now they are at the mercy of Microsoft, who seem to have trouble wrapping up
WP8, can abandon the platform any moment (as they have done with Windows
Mobile, WP7), or stop delivering updates for slightly older phones.

~~~
shin_lao
You might have a bias against WP. I own a Lumia and the experience is good,
WP7 is a very decent OS.

~~~
danieldk
I don't. I also have a Lumia with WP7, and I do like the operating system
quite much. What I do not like is the lack of updates and that the Lumia that
I bought relatively recently is now already obsolete. Coming from the iPhone,
where I had years of updates, that's a few steps back.

