
Tesla aims to start pilot production of Model 3 cars on February 20 - fmihaila
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-model-idUSKBN15N2W7
======
aresant
This is good news.

Musks target of 500,000+ cars a year of velocity in 2018 is an insane goal!

By the numbers:

\- They have just shy of 400,000 of the 3's on deposit, along with a backlog
of other models.

\- Last year Tesla shipped about 76,000 cars.

\- Their Q4 delivery numbers were <25,000 cars and trailed expectations by
about 5%.

\- They blamed last quarter on autopilot hardware issues, eg OEM supplier /
component issues.

\- They made a significant uptick in velocity between Q2 (14,000 cars) and Q4
(22,200 cars).

I can't imagine how hard Tesla is pushing - for any Tesla HN's good luck! We
are rooting for you :)

If, somehow, Musk reverses the chronic lateness and hits 500,000 in 2018 it's
going to be quite the fireworks show.

[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/tesla-
fal...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/tesla-falls-as-
quarterly-deliveries-trail-analysts-estimates)

~~~
thatswrong0
I would love a Tesla but man those numbers would be a bit frightening if I
were planning on purchasing one soon.. I don't see how they could scale up
like that for a brand new model and not have quality problems. Best of luck to
them!

~~~
fmihaila
It's worth noting that the first production cars are to be delivered to the
Tesla employees who reserved one. This should have a positive impact on
quality, both in terms of motivation ("the car I'm working on is _mine_ "),
and by having a shorter debug-fix-test cycle.

(I have no idea how many employee reservations there are.)

~~~
Waterluvian
You should see the Tesla employee parking lot. Most of the people working on
these cars will never afford one.

~~~
spectrum1234
?? Tesla Model 3 full cost of ownership, esp including tax incentives in CA
(where factory is) literally is the cheapest car on the market.

~~~
Waterluvian
I guess I'm jaded from my week spent there. It was a whole different world to
me. One lady talked to me about how this is her second job today and that she
can barely make it on time to today's safety training because of the bus
schedules. The parking lot was an ocean of beat up cars. The perception I got
was that nobody on the production floor would ever own these cars.

~~~
J-dawg
That just seems really sad. I've read that Tesla doesn't pay exceptionally
well, expects people to work really long hours, and doesn't offer an employee
discount because Elon doesn't believe in it.

Despite all this I've always imagined it to be a great place to work because
of the world-changing potential of the work.

But the idea of all these people toiling away on an amazing product they can't
even hope to own just seems incredibly depressing. I guess it's no different
to all the people making iPhones in China, it just hits closer to home.

~~~
trome
Elon is a capitalist, through and through. Treating workers well isn't even on
his list of priorities, similar to Amazon.

~~~
crusso
Musk created a company that gives around 15,000 workers a job. The company he
created is not just a capitalist endeavor, but an attempt to start an
environmental movement aimed at making electric cars viable in the world
market. At multiple points during the company's early days, Musk put
everything he had on the line; assuming huge levels of risk.

Meanwhile, Tesla is not making a profit and one wrong move could destroy it -
ending the jobs of thousands and an environmental movement in one fell swoop.
Giving luxurious benefits to Tesla employees just isn't possible at this
point.

Your criticism that Musk is just a capitalist who doesn't care about his
workers and treat them well seems completely unfair.

~~~
trome
Boo hoo, not treating your workers like shit isn't some impossible, gargantuan
task. Working your engineers & labor 60+ hours a week makes for great sound
bites, but significantly below average productivity. Combined with an employer
that won't even take basic suggestions on improving workflow from their floor
staff, Tesla obviously has a certain level of arrogance about how to build a
car. Fuck the employees who actually do it day in and day out, they don't know
shit according to Tesla.

------
deepGem
Great! and Musk hopes for a launch in India this summer.

Bad news for $TSLA short sellers. They have piled up more than $9 billion.
[http://finance.yahoo.com/news/short-sellers-getting-
steamrol...](http://finance.yahoo.com/news/short-sellers-getting-steamrolled-
tesla-160040922.html)

~~~
artursapek
It seems like TSLA is one of the most tirelessly shorted stocks out there. Why
are there so many people betting against them?

~~~
sandworm101
Because they are a fledgling car company. Those are generally doomed. A few
wrong moves, a few bad models, and you disappear. Either that or one of the
established companies uses their resources to launch at competing product.

Frankly, the likes of Honda and Toyota are probably laughing at tesla. Once
their ducks are all lined up their size will allow them to produce electric
cars at an insane scale. Shortsellers bet on this happening sooner than later
and have so far lost that bet. But that doesn't mean it cannot happen
tomorrow. Telsa is still on a knife's edge, will be for a decade or more.
Tesla knows this an so is trying to leverage its battery know-how into other
fields, a hedge against a decent honda electric hitting the US market.

~~~
deepGem
Yep. I am a Tesla shareholder and the growing short interest makes owning the
stock all the more exciting.

Just because Toyota, Honda and the like manufacture gasoline cars at a large
scale, one cannot postulate that they will overnight produce electric cars at
the same scale. Assembly line retooling is a big deal.

~~~
sandworm101
Tesla has the batteries, but they don't have the rest of the car. Honda and
the like, even GM, can churn out new models built to very high standards much
faster than Tesla. BMW is doing very well with pure electrics without much
press. They are looking at shipping 100k electrics this year. Tesla may be the
cool luxury brand in california, but BMW is in a different league in terms of
build quality and worldwide acceptance. If tesla misses the "cool" factor, BMW
is right their. That potential for upset is driving the shortsellers.

Personally, I'd never buy a car from someone as small and young as tesla. They
just don't have the legs. I've been brought up to buy good used cars and drive
them until they die. I expect 20+ years. BMWs, Mercs, hondas, even jeeps and
Volvos really do last that long if you are nice to them. Until I see a 25yo
Tesla driving down the road I am not a potential customer.

~~~
henrikschroder
I was considering buying a Tesla a few years ago, but the finish and interior
of any other luxury sedan blew the Teslas out of the water, and it's
definitely where they are lacking.

However, I wonder if it's harder for Tesla to get better at fit & finish and
interiors and quality, or if it's harder for the entrenched players to gut
their petrolhead heritage, and sacrifice their lucrative combustion engine
business, and especially the lucrative service & repair business it creates.

Another angle is that Tesla is Silicon Valley bred, they're a software company
through and through. The other companies treat software as an afterthought,
their infotainment systems range from "monstrosities" to "I don't want to claw
my eyes out yet". None are good. Some are bearable. Teslas is good, and it's
an obvious priority, and software is such a huge part of modern cars and their
performance, that the hardware will be commoditized.

It's definitely interesting!

~~~
xorcist
> Tesla is Silicon Valley bred, they're a software company through and through

Are they, really? I'm not impressed. Software is very central to their cars,
and I think the end user experience is pretty abysmal. Which is par for a car
manufacturer, of course, but I had other expectations given their Silicon
Valley heritage. Get Apple involved already! They don't seem to be going
anywhere with their own car investments anyway...

------
pfarnsworth
I'm a Tesla bear, I've shorted Tesla a few times over the last several years,
but I've heard from insiders that they are going to hit their initial
deadline, and they are already testing Model 3s on the roads, in a Model S
form factor. That means I'm going to stay far away from this stock, at least
as a short.

~~~
pmorici
Did you just admit in writing on a public forum you have inside information on
a company and trade their stock based on it?

~~~
OriginalPenguin
Actually I think he said he has inside information and wasn't going to trade
their stock on it.

------
Beldur
I just saw this video from 4 years ago:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_lfxPI5ObM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_lfxPI5ObM)

Does somebody know if there's a more recent one? It looked impressive even
it's age.

------
zump
How's the working environment at Tesla? Seems they are very productive (or it
might be PR), does it have a 'big company' feel yet?

~~~
AtheistOfFail
People dislike Elon Musk and he's basically a slave driver by most reviews.

~~~
dcgudeman
I think people who have attitudes like this are misguided. If you don't like
working for Elon or at Tesla, don't. There is only one Tesla while there are
tons of other companies you can have a "good" work/life balance at.

~~~
pkkim
That's true to some extent. You should be able to choose a job that is a
little less stressful but pays a little less, or the opposite.

But there are a lot of caveats. For example:

First of all, a company sets standards in wages, benefits, and hours to the
extent that it is a monopsony [1] in its particular geographic market and
labor market, and also insofar as there is unemployment in the region (and,
thus, there are people who could take your job and it would be hard for you to
find another job). Tesla is a very large employer of unskilled labor, as well
as skilled. The Bay Area doesn't have as high unemployment as other areas, but
it still has some. Therefore, the labor conditions at Tesla impact labor
conditions at other workplaces to some extent.

Second, more on the level of values, why should a worker have to miss his
daughter's ballet recital on Saturday because his manager told him on Friday
afternoon at end-of-shift that he has to come in tomorrow? That should not be
necessary in a well-run factory. Maybe it would be different if a factory
worker at a Tesla factory could participate in the vision by buying a Tesla
car, but that's not possible either because they're too expensive.

[1]:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monopsony](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monopsony):
"In economics, a monopsony ... is a market structure in which only one buyer
interacts with many would-be sellers of a particular product [here, labor]."

------
sketchthat
If they can hit 500,000 cars by 2018 would you assume they would be able to
fulfil all world orders of model 3 by mid-2018?

I'm in Australia and put a deposit on in the morning the day it came out,
hoping I'll see the car this year but doubtful.. next year? Maybe.

~~~
manicdee
We will be getting ours in late 2018 assuming everything goes smoothly for
Tesla.

There is ramp-up, LHD priority, and shipping time to factor into the schedule.

~~~
joering2
Honest question. Its February 2017, you say "late 2018". Why would you be
buying anything, including something so expensive as a car, and wait for it
more than a year not knowing how much technology will progress in next 12-18
months?

~~~
ryanhuff
Nobody has bought a M3 yet, but people have placed deposits.

~~~
spike021
I don't think that answers his/her question.

The point being, why would anybody put money down on any car really, when it's
a rather significant monetary investment not to be delivered for quite a
while.

~~~
mikeash
It's $1,000. I think a lot of people in the tech community can afford to part
with $1,000 for a while. It's fully refundable until you actually convert your
reservation into a concrete order, so you can change your mind later.

I'm thinking about getting a second car for my family. I don't need it
immediately. A Model 3 sounds like it would be perfect for the job. I put
$1,000 down to reserve one just in case. If I decide I don't want it, I'll get
my money back. I'll miss out on maybe $15 of interest on that money in the
intervening time, big deal.

~~~
joering2
$15 interest from $1,000 in 18 months? You need a new banker.

~~~
mikeash
Care to provide any pointers? 1% seems to be about the best thing going right
now.

------
jagger27
It just smells like spin to me. They were going to build preproduction cars
anyway for certification, testing, and to iron out manufacturing kinks.
Putting them on display for the press and investors is just PR.

~~~
_ph_
I don't think it is big news that they are going to build preproduction cars,
of course they have to do that. The big news is, that if they are doing it
now, that they seem to be on schedule for the full production.

------
WhitneyLand
What's the going market rate to buy a reservation from someone? Say you wanted
to be order #50,000 or higher?

Also: "last week design changes were still underway, which could hinder the
ramp-up to full production"

This is kind of funny because it so often what you see in software which was
his background. I wonder if any exec at GM ever pushes the envelope in this
way.

~~~
Bedon292
Pre-Orders are non transferable, so not sure there is much of a market. There
are also not really set places in line. Stores were open on the East Coast
were open before the West Coast, but West will ship before East. And current
owners cut in line somehow as well.

I am sure you could pay someone to keep their pre-order open, buy the vehicle,
then sell it to you afterwards. But that seems like a good way to get screwed,
on both sides of the deal.

------
modeless
I'm really hoping that Model 3 production is not delayed because every delay
makes it less likely that I will get the full $7,500 federal tax credit.

Once Tesla sells its 200,000th US car the credit will be cut by 50% to $3,750
after a period of up to two quarters. That puts the likely cut time at July
2018.

~~~
UnoriginalGuy
Tesla themselves may be able to find cost savings further into production
which could bring down the wholesale cost of the vehicle making somewhat up
for the loss of the tax credit. Or if not maybe the "version 2.0" will.

I will say I'm not sure what price segment Tesla's endgame for the Model 3 is.
I assume somewhere in the 25-35K mark, but there's a lot of variance in that
range and without seeing the Model 3's trims and features it will be hard to
judge where it should fall compared to the competition.

Tesla's site has impressively little basic information about the Model 3.
Heck, I don't even know if it has electric windows (obviously it does, but my
point is that Tesla's site lacks a 101 level spec sheet right now). Kind of
ballsy to ask for a $1K downpayment for a vehicle they aren't telling you a
darn thing about.

~~~
_ph_
According to Elon, they only expected like a 100k reservations. So having 400k
reservations was a very important information for Tesla about the initial
demand and gave them a few more months to plan for higher production numbers.
As they asked for the refundable 1k fee with the reservations, should make
sure that people are not just reserving for fun or excessive amounts.

------
yladiz
On a slightly related note, I have serious doubts that even if they hit their
target that the company will actually sell enough to profit in the long term,
because it is an electric car and they only sell electric cars. This is
dissimilar to traditional car manufacturers which do manufacture electric cars
but primarily make gas powered cars.

The main reason I argue this is that to a lot of consumers, an electric car is
nice but functionally less useful than a gas car. That is, a lot of consumers
think, "What if my battery runs out? How do I charge it in an emergency?"
referring to if the battery runs out somewhere. In a traditional car, if you
go somewhere far and run out of gas you can just call AAA and they can either
tow your car or bring you a bit of gas to get you to your next gas station,
and this isn't really possible with current electric cars. Even in town, if
you forget to charge your car you can't just go to the gas station, you have
to wait a bit of time for your car to be ready to go. Don't discount 5 vs 15
minutes -- I can fill a car and be done in less than 5 minutes whereas it
takes a bit more time to charge an electric car, even a Tesla at a
supercharging station.

The company that produces a car that isn't gas powered but can be re-powered
in the same amount of time, or creates the technology within batteries, will
be the one that causes a true revolution. I don't know if I'd go so far as to
short TSLA but I am not completely convinced their cars will take off (also
consider the fact that a $35,000 car is still really expensive for the average
consumer).

~~~
spectrum1234
I think the opposite is true. For Tesla owners its more like "Every day I wake
up with a full tank of gas."

The percentage of trips over ~215 miles is quite small. Doing the math you are
saving many hours/year on average. Of course I'm not accounting for edge cases
but _that 's the point_ they are edge cases.

~~~
refurb
I think it's fair to say that there is a large percentage of the population
where a trip over 215 miles is a once-per-year or less event.

For myself personally, I probably take 5 or 6 trips per year where I'm
covering over 400 miles in a day. The time it takes to recharge the car would
be a big negative to me. It's nice to be able to jump in the car in SF early
morning and be in Seattle by evening. Not sure I'd even make it half way in an
electric car.

I'm sure someone will comment "well this car isn't for you" and they are
correct.

~~~
CiaranMcNulty
You don't want a 30-min break in the middle of that 400 miles?

Your bladder/hunger control must be way better than mine

~~~
planteen
That's only 5 hours of driving at 80 mph. I sometimes drive that distance on a
Friday night. Get off work, eat a quick dinner, and hit the road. I stop to
gas up once and go to the bathroom at the same time. In and out in less than
10 minutes. I'm often going camping, so the fact that my vehicle is full is
also important. My understanding is that a Tesla isn't fully recharged after
30 minutes. I realize this is far from average, but the OP's case isn't crazy.

~~~
thebiglebrewski
You get used to having an extra 20 or 30 minutes tacked on pretty easily. I
own an S. You just have to know what the good supercharger locations are with
good stuff nearby (like free WiFi)! Bring a good book with you. I don't know
it sounds like I'm justifying the inconvenience...I guess for me it's about
the eventual environmental impact and the self driving more than the extra 30
minutes at a rest stop!

~~~
planteen
Yeah I could see getting used to that. Especially if you plan it around having
dinner. Just curious, do you ever run into having to wait for a spot at the
super charger? I see lots of them are 4 spots deep.

Another problem is that, depending on where you are going, it looks like you
might not be able to charge anywhere on the route. I found a map of locations
here: [http://www.teslarati.com/map/](http://www.teslarati.com/map/)

Like the typical route between Denver, CO to Lake City, CO (255 miles one way)
has no supercharger close. Would you modify your route to swing by the
location? Or would you have a friend drive a gas car instead?

~~~
thebiglebrewski
Well, I'm in the Northeast. When I'm heading somewhere to camp it's usually
upstate from NYC. I'm pretty lucky in that the superchargers on the Thruway
are honestly really empty at this point. I'll pull in to maybe 1 car,
especially if I go further north. Paramus and Tarrytown are fairly busy but
further North superchargers are not.

I have a 90D so I'd be able to make that drive in one go, although it would be
close!

