
Covid-19 Projections - robomartin
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
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systemvoltage
Wouldn't there be a second peak as soon as we lift social distancing and other
measures of containing this virus we have _currently_ in place?

These models assume that the same level of societal restrictions continue to
be present into the future?

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_bxg1
I believe these models just don't even try to project subsequent peaks.

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systemvoltage
We are no where near herd immunity for COVID-19. I don't see how we can keep
the cases low and open up the economy. Wall Street says otherwise - market is
up this week.

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_bxg1
I'm in Texas and our projections look shockingly optimistic. At time of
writing this says we will, at peak, fill only 30% of our ICU beds capacity, or
75% in the worst-case scenario.

I want to believe this is true but it's hard to believe.

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byproxy
> assuming full social distancing through May 2020

Are there any projections that have the social distancing set as a variable,
from 0% to 100%?

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hughdbrown
Can someone explain how this model works?

I see 1000-ish deaths in the US on the 5th. On the 7th, there are 1900-ish.
What is the grounds for believing that the curve is headed down shortly after
this?

Or, what is the calculation behind the estimate of deaths for day[n + 1]?

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Leary
Glad to see the US projection decreasing from 80k to 60k.

The UK is still at 66k, I hope they abandoned their herd immunity strategy
like the government said.

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foxyv
This projection seems kind of optimistic based on the figures we are seeing.
They may need to update it tomorrow.

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biolurker1
So after June 1 no more deaths at all. Virus is beaten. How can this model be
accurate. It's not.

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rotexo
they cover this in the FAQs, which are worth reading. They indicate that, if
distancing measures are maintained, the first wave will be done by early June.
They explicitly say that a second wave is likely unless extra measures, like
contact tracing and mass screening, are taken. I also think anyone who is
using this model to make (edit) healthcare resource allocation decisions knows
about the limitations of the model, and is using multiple models.

