
Why are most of us so bad at predicting things? - paulpauper
http://www.omaha.com/columnists/hansen/hansen-superforecaster-s-success-raises-the-question-why-are-most/article_4f8a85ad-690f-520d-a688-4bbdb51f7cce.html
======
sard
The experiments by Tetlock and company (that are detailed in the book
"Superforecasters") are pretty amazing.

However, the article _hugely_ mischaracterizes the way Tetlock talks about
superforecasting, in particular from his book. In particular, this bit here:

"He’s a superforecaster because some strange brew of genetics and learned
behavior makes his brain work differently from the way the rest of ours do."

Where on earth did this claim about genetics come from?

The book boils most of the forecasting process down to starting with an
outside view, but at _no point_ is it insinuated that genetics have something
to do with it. It's seemingly just reframing of thought patterns.

