
Tracking North Korea’s Kwangmyongsong-4 Satellite Using OSINT - wolframio
http://phasenoise.livejournal.com/2381.html
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jimmcslim
I assume the answer is 'no', but did NK liaise in anyway with the
international body that governs orbital slots for satellites, or is it
irrelevant for this orbit (or likely to deorbit in a few months anyway).

I'm not sure what is more likely; an NK that goes all first strike, or gets a
bit too ambitious in launching satellites without participating in the
appropriate international processes and triggers a Kessler Syndrome event in
Earth orbit.

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cperciva
_deorbit in a few months anyway_

This makes me think of a movie plot: A rogue nation is suspected of preparing
an ICBM launch, but moments after launch it becomes clear that the trajectory
will take the payload into orbit and the world breathes a sigh of relief. That
is, until a spy discovers that the satellite contains a nuclear weapon and is
designed to deorbit a few months later and land in Washington DC...

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JshWright
That would be well into sci-fi movie plot territory though... The atmosphere
is far too variable to predict a specific deorbit point months in advance.

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theGimp
Not if you include a thruster :)

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mikeash
You've reinvented fractional orbital bombardment:
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional_Orbital_Bombardme...](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional_Orbital_Bombardment_System)

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jpatokal
Since neither the article nor the comments here mention this: it is not _at
all_ clear that the launched object was a satellite. In fact, the available
evidence -- including the fact that no transmissions have ever been detected
from this or its three predecessors -- points towards it being an
intercontinental ballistic missile test, and the "satellite" is just a cover
story.

And there's precedent too: the Kwangmyongsong-1 deorbited almost immediately,
but the launch was still hailed in the NK press as a total success, up to and
including broadcasting songs extolling the virtues of Kims.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwangmy%C5%8Fngs%C5%8Fng-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwangmy%C5%8Fngs%C5%8Fng-1)

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viraptor
> the fact that no transmissions have ever been detected from this or its
> three predecessors

May not be true. KMS-2 supposedly played some songs for us. But wikipedia is
not certain.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwangmy%C5%8Fngs%C5%8Fng-2#The...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwangmy%C5%8Fngs%C5%8Fng-2#The_satellite)

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13of40
It would be hilarious if it just started broadcasting propaganda at 99.9 Mhz.

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ars
What's at 99.9? Just regular FM?

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viraptor
Yes. Then again, you don't have to be a crazy president to do something like
that. If I had spare money to build ($?) and launch ($8k
[http://www.gizmag.com/tubesat-personal-
satellite/22211/](http://www.gizmag.com/tubesat-personal-satellite/22211/)) a
satellite which just circles the world and beams down nyan cat song at
standard FM, I'd definitely do that.

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mseebach
Commercial FM transmitters routinely have outputs on the order of several kW,
and have ranges in the low hundred kilometres. The lowest low earth orbit is
160 km, TubeSats are in 320 km orbits.

I doubt you could fit enough PV cells on a TubeSat to power a FM transmitter
that could be heard on earth with standard equipment.

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viraptor
I guess it's a question of what's the squelch level in retail radios. It's FM
modulation, so it doesn't have to be very strong - just high enough above the
noise level.

Also local transmitters are either omnidirectional, or it's a few wide-angle
antennas that need to send the signal over hills / through buildings, etc.
From space you could easily do only ~20 degrees and there's practically
nothing in your way.

For comparison, LEO weather satellites send data at around 6-7W (not kW).

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Tepix
Why is it widely condemned when North Korea launches a satellite?

Why does the article quote North Korea's "right" to explore space in a
peaceful manner?

Just wondering.

It's not like plenty of other states are putting military satellites in orbit
without asking anyone for permission.

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madaxe_again
Indeed. I'm actually impressed by the technical achievement - putting
something into a (nearly) circular polar orbit is no mean feat.

As for the "it's an ICBM test!" crowd - bollocks. That's like saying the
Boeing 747 was a test to see if manned flight is possible - total
overengineering.

Also, for context, what exactly do folks think soyuz goes into space on? A
magical peace rocket? No. It goes up on an R-7, which _is_ an ICBM - the very
first developed, in fact. That nasty ICBM technology has kept the ISS running.

The Mercury programme redstone rockets that put Americans in space - also
ballistic missiles that had had warheads replaced with crew capsules.

Should America and Russia have been condemned by the world? By the standards
being applied here, yes.

So, shake your fist all you like, but regardless of their politics this is a
technical coup, and I congratulate them on a successful launch.

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gozur88
>As for the "it's an ICBM test!" crowd - bollocks. That's like saying the
Boeing 747 was a test to see if manned flight is possible - total
overengineering.

Not true. The North Koreans aren't at the point yet where they can miniaturize
nuclear bombs, so if they're going to make a system that can deliver nuclear
warheads, it's going to need to be something like this.

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VeilEm
I realize N Korea is pretty isolated, but China shares technology with the
country right? Do engineers in N Korea go to school in China?

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yongjik
I don't think China has anything to gain by giving NK advanced rocket
technology. China already have enough power to impress its neighbors and is
not afraid to show it off, so there's no need to prop up a satellite nation
which is barely controllable.

If anything, NK rockets are a very handy excuse for Japan to re-arm itself (or
continue arming itself, depending on how you look at it), and I can't imagine
China liking its prospect. Meanwhile, South Korean government is already
discussing plans to introduce THAAD (whatever that is) into SK, and apparently
China is pretty upset about that, too. Sigh.

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gozur88
THAAD is theater ballistic missile defense. Not sure why China would care,
particularly when the South Koreans don't have nuclear weapons.

There's quite a bit of evidence for nuclear armed US warships calling at South
Korean ports, but US ships already have ballistic missile defenses.

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yongjik
Well, South Korea (thankfully) doesn't have nukes, but we have lots of US
military bases and they can easily have nukes.

Honestly, I don't see what difference a missile defense would make to SK, when
North Korea can set Seoul in fire with artillery.

At least I understand that having a missile defense system right in front of
China will help the US in its geopolitical game against China. What I don't
understand is why our politicians think it's a good idea to act as a
conspicuous pawn in this game.

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gozur88
>Honestly, I don't see what difference a missile defense would make to SK,
when North Korea can set Seoul in fire with artillery.

While I agree the North Koreans can do a tremendous amount of damage to Seoul
with artillery, these are really calculations on the strategic, nuclear level.
The North Korean conventional ballistic arsenal is too small to matter very
much.

What they're really worried about is South Korea developing the capability to
stop the North Koreans from delivering a nuclear bomb. The Chinese are
probably thinking the US is more likely to nuke the North Koreans if we don't
believe they can retaliate effectively.

Still, it doesn't make much sense to me. If we were to make a first strike on
North Korea we would get their nukes with a pretty high degree of confidence.
Not that we would anyway, but the strategic consideration there is China's
response, not North Korea's.

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bognition
So how long is it before western countries intervene? NK has demonstrated that
they can build nuclear bombs, they have demonstrated that they can put objects
into orbit. Its only a matter of time before they can do both at the same
time.

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nxzero
What would you suggest and why?

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CapitalistCartr
The are the PROC's pet; put the screws to them to sort out Kim.

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GFK_of_xmaspast
What "screws" are available to use on China and why do you think their use
won't backfire.

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Outdoorsman
Interesting...the article posits, if frequencies can be discovered, it might
be possible to intercept/capture transmissions from the satellite, when in
range, using something as simple as a ham radio or SDR dongle (police
scanner)...

My understanding of satellite coms is that many satellites are of the "relay"
class, and use TDRS--Tracking and Data Relay Satellite--to bounce signals from
satellite to satellite when a ground station is not in line of sight...NASA,
for instance...

I wonder what the N. Korean coms protocol is...?

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viraptor
That's assuming it's not encrypted. A lot of the data coming in is transmitted
in plain right now, (comms, images, telemetry, ...) because it's just not
worth encrypting, or simply could be of interest to other parties. But if
anyone wants to put encryption on the data, you're not going to find out much.

That said... it's passing right over me in a few minutes, so I'll be out
monitoring the 4xx freqs :)

Edit: in case anyone was wondering - nothing exciting happened. No sign of new
signals during a perfect pass:
[https://i.imgur.com/rMC6gIE.png](https://i.imgur.com/rMC6gIE.png) (at least
not at those freqs they used previously)

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VeilEm
> because it's just not worth encrypting

That seems unlikely to be the reason but I don't know much about how
satellites are programmed. On the terrestrial plane a $5 raspberry pi with
free software can encrypt and decrypt secure communication. It's trivial and
cheap to encrypt.

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jjoonathan
Raspi isn't rad-hardened and wouldn't last long (about a month is typical if
memory serves). Still, rad-hardening a processor wouldn't exactly be the
hardest part of the project so the point stands.

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mschuster91
Just wrap it up in 5cm lead to protect it from alpha, beta and most gamma
radiation.

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drewnoakes
Can frequency hopping or something similar be used to make transmissions from
satellites hard or impossible to detect?

