

Forgoing College to Pursue Dreams - zone411
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/16/business/the-thiel-fellows-forgoing-college-to-pursue-dreams.html?_r=1&hpw

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rayiner
I always find it ironic that Thiel, who followed one of the most risk-averse
career tracks possible after high school (top undergrad + top law school + top
law firm = guaranteed six-figure salary), is so whole-heartedly encouraging
kids to not follow in his footsteps.

I question what the risk-weighted expected return for these kids ends up
being, and how that compares to more traditional career paths. Thiel himself
at least had the fallback option of a traditional career in case his
entrepreneurial aspirations didn't work out. It looks like most of these kids
already have a top college acceptance in had before accepting Thiel's
fellowship, which gives them a backup option in the very likely scenario their
"dreams" don't pan out. For kids who didn't have such backup options, I'd
really question the rationality of pursing something like this.

I do question the broader movement to push kids from college to startups. I
had the option of dropping out during college to work for a startup, and in
retrospect I'm tremendously thankful I didn't take the opportunity. There is
just so much risk of permanently prejudicing yourself for traditional types of
work, and it's just a fact of life that very few startups are going to be
successful to the point that it would justify forgoing those other
opportunities.

The cynic in me is inclined to believe that the only ones who really benefit
from this push towards startups, in the expected return sense, are the VCs.
The VCs can hedge their risk between a number of startups to maximize their
expected return. An individual startup founder cannot do that. An individual
startup founder who is 19, fresh out of college, and has no safety net can do
even less to minimize his risk, and has a lot to lose in the likely event that
he fails.

~~~
imgabe
A lot to lose, like what? At most they're out a year or two of their time,
when they're young. There's nothing to stop you from going back to college at
22.

~~~
sliverstorm
It's so much easier to say that when it isn't your life you are talking about.

~~~
nostrademons
I started college when I was 20, having spent an extra year in high school
(startup high school, they didn't have a graduating class the year I was
supposed to graduate) and then worked at a dot-com run exclusively by
teenagers for a year. Or actually, I worked at a dot-com run exclusively by
teenagers for 3 months, then our funding got pulled and I worked as a software
engineer for the parent company for 3 months, then the parent company realized
their was no money in its primary line of business and pivoted to a completely
different idea, then I continued working for them for another 6 months.

Had I not done that, I probably would've stayed a physics major in college,
done well, gone to physics grad school, and then realized I hated it when I
was around 26 and suddenly ended up with no experience doing anything else and
no clue what I wanted to do, a far worse outcome.

I think that there is, in general, far too much fear in contemporary American
culture. Fear that if you don't do everything perfectly and don't follow the
sequence laid out as a "safe" career track, you will end up screwed for life.
Yes, if you end up following your own path, you _will_ get burnt by bad
decisions at time, and you'll have to scramble to fix them, and some
opportunities will close themselves off to you because you didn't pursue them.
But you will also gain practice & confidence in dealing with those bad
decisions, and learn how to fix them and that there will be other
opportunities that open themselves up to you because you screwed up with what
you _thought_ you wanted.

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cmagahern
The last few paragraphs of the article really brought an interesting light
onto the subject. Most of the people I know who left college to start a
business or to work somewhere in Silicon Valley had a remarkably privileged
upbringing. They never had the worries about the financial or temporal
investment into an education or any experience taking risks. I'm not trying to
berate people who drop out of college for these reasons, but it's an important
factor to keep in mind when truly analyzing their success.

~~~
001sky
While there is a <lot> of truth in this statement, one notable exception is
worth mentioning: steve jobs. who apparently quit school in part because he
thought college was too much for his familiy to pay for.

But I think you are more right than wrong in your observation. There are a lot
of soft social skills and such that you need for business that could be
learned in school. May not be news to some depending on there background and
natural talents, etc.

~~~
scott_s
Jobs grew up in Silicon Valley, and had connections to people in the industry
that helped in the beginning.

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elchief
Just because you can get into Princeton doesn't mean it's a good idea to pay
to go.

Full scholarship? Go

Parents paying for everything? Go

Otherwise, you really need to consider an in-state school, and living at home.
You work your ass off to be in the top percentile of students (obviously not a
global solution), finish in 3 years, and get a full fellowship for grad school
to a place like Princeton.

That's how we did it back in the day anyways.

Startup Idea

You only sell the University Certification, no courses, no teachers, no
buildings, no Office of Strategic Management.

You only have incredibly hard tests that only 5% of the population can pass.
They learn on their own. You guarantee that they are amazingly smart, or will
pay their severance.

~~~
gyardley
While elite schools like Princeton have very attractive financial aid
packages, even if they didn't, the connections you'll make as an undergrad
there are well worth the price of admission. It's not just the education
you're paying for.

If you replace Princeton with another expensive private school that's _not_ a
feeder system for America's upper class, I completely agree with your point.

~~~
Nutella2
According to the article, one of the main advantages of Thiel's program is the
contacts they make. So how different is it from the Ivy League?

~~~
gyardley
The comment I replied to suggested that an in-state school followed by grad
school at Princeton would be a better alternative than paying for an undergrad
degree at Princeton. I was responding to that.

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oob205
Thiel Fellowship draws stellar applicants who I suspect would be successful,
college or not. I do wish more regular American high school students got the
opportunity to do something similar, i.e., put off college for two years to
work and explore passion. I won't go as far as to say college is a waste of
time (it's still the most sure-fire route out of poverty for example). But a
lot of people go at 18 because it's the next step and end up floundering. I
believe we'd get a better return on higher education in the US if there were
more regular and accepted opportunities for students to work for a year or
two, then decide if college is the right next step.

~~~
rayiner
> I believe we'd get a better return on higher education in the US if there
> were more regular and accepted opportunities for students to work for a year
> or two, then decide if college is the right next step.

For once the problem isn't with the colleges. Colleges, by and large, don't
care how many years you took off between high school and college as long as
you bring the right GPA and SAT scores to the table. At colleges that care
about more than that (Harvard, etc) having interesting experience after high
school can only help your admissions chances.

The problem is social acceptance. Too many parents have this silly notion that
if a kid doesn't go immediately to college, he'll spend life as a barista. My
wife studied in Europe for a year after high school, and she absolutely wants
our kids to do something similar. She said that living independently for a
year really allowed her to focus on school in a way she could not have
otherwise.

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alid
Rather than looking at traditional 'smarts', I would look at personality
factors to assess if someone of college age should drop out - their levels of
entrepreneurism, emotional intelligence, communication and persuasion skills,
resilience, and sheer grit and determination. These traits can be found in
people from any background, and will help them go the distance.

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eyoel
Article in single-page: [http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/16/business/the-thiel-
fellows...](http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/16/business/the-thiel-fellows-
forgoing-college-to-pursue-dreams.html?_r=2&hpw&pagewanted=print)

------
timpeterson
I'm so sick of the continuing Peter Thiel hypefest. I don't like college
either but his 20 for 20 program is just some ridiculous bullshit.

------
j45
College was supposed to prepare me to pursue my dreams.

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onetimeuse001
As someone said, these are bright people and will probably make it, if not
they can still go back to college.

But for 99.99% of "smart people," college is probably the best bet. Even if
you had a few $million, that can go very easily over the course of decades
with a few bad investment decisions, medical bills or whatever. A safe job
usually provides a steady income for decades and decades.

Thiel is set for life and then some, but even if he loses the money he has a
top college education to fall back on. So it's easy to make experiments with
_other_ people's lives.

No matter what, do not expect to work for Thiel's funds without a degree and
from a top college
[http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-05-14/wall_street/3...](http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-05-14/wall_street/31696189_1_global-
macro-new-hedge-fund-job-market)

~~~
randomdata
> But for 99.99% of "smart people," college is probably the best bet.

Perhaps not. In the USA: Of the top 1% earners, 49% have a postgraduate
education[1]. From what I could find, There are 600,000 doctors and 11,000,000
lawyers in the USA which could be said to cover the vast majority of the 49%
group.

Of the remaining 51%, 23% have a college degree leaving 27% _without_ a
college education. Unless you are looking at very specific fields, it seems
you are slightly better off without a degree at all if you are striving for
financial success.

If your sights are not set so high, and you're happy with just a regular job:
Only 30% of the population have a college degree. That means that 60%
(discounted 10% to account for unemployment, which isn't even fair as many
college graduates are unemployed) of the population are doing just fine
without one.

With that said, you should still go to college. It is an amazing experience
that comes with countless positives. Whatever happens in your future career
with respect to said education shouldn't even be a consideration.

[1] [http://www.gallup.com/poll/151310/u.s.-republican-not-
conser...](http://www.gallup.com/poll/151310/u.s.-republican-not-
conservative.aspx)

~~~
falsestprophet
> Of the remaining 51%, 23% have a college degree leaving 27% without a
> college education.

Consider that some individuals who are members of households in the top one
percent of income earners and have not completed a four year college degree
will have married a high income earner who has completed a college or
postgraduate education.

~~~
randomdata
Sure, but it goes the other way too. Melinda Gates comes to mind as a
prominent example. She has a degree, but Bill, who made the family's fortune,
does not.

