

Will Android Tablets Overtake the iPad? - bane
http://www.thefastertimes.com/venturecapital/2012/10/06/will-android-tablets-overtake-the-ipad/

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koffiezet
Doubt it. If as rumored, Apple releases an iPad 'mini', I think this is going
to be an iPod situation, where the iPad grabs the majority of the market, with
a lot of smaller manufacturers picking up the bits.

The thing is, Android phones were pushed by carriers. For tablets, this hardly
happens, although I've seen "free tablet" promotions when getting a new
internet connection, but that has hardly done anything as far as I know.

The Kindle fire might be a contender, but I don't really see that as a real
competitor, and that's hardly Android. The software quality also seems to be
very low to me.

And then you have Microsoft, who is making the same mistakes they made the
first time they attempted a tablet. They will maybe sell a few, but if the
sales of the 'ultrabooks' are a good indication, expensive tablets running
Windows 8 won't be the success they're hoping for.

I know dozens of people having an iPad, including complete non-techies - and
they love it. I know 1 guy with an Asus transformer, and 1 with a Galaxy tab
10", both IT guys. The Asus's build quality surprised me in the positive way,
the galaxy tab in a negative way. In both cases, I thought the software was
useless, and web-browsing slow and sluggish compared to my iPad 2.

That said, the moment I can order a Nexus 7 here in Belgium, I'm getting one.

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enraged_camel
Not only is iPad popular, it also has an incredible amount of market
penetration in a large variety of industries. You have airlines talking about
giving their pilots iPads, you have schools giving their teachers and even
students iPads for classroom learning, you have car manufacturers designing
iPad docks for their cars with integrated controls... it is extremely unlikely
that a competitor is going to be able to dislodge Apple from their leadership
position anytime soon.

If I were an Apple competitor, I'd forget about tablets and smartphones and
invest all my resources into developing the next "big thing". The reason is
simple: Apple cannot be beat in its own game. So the smart thing to do is to
innovate a new revolutionary device, something that will create its own
category.

I'd say that the only tech company who has the potential for a feat of this
magnitude is Google. However, even they seem to lack focus. That's one huge
advantage that Apple had: Steve Jobs' extraordinary focus and vision. If you
look at Google, you see that they are working on cool projects like self-
driving cars and Google Glass, but what they need is a technology that
converges these inventions in one physical device. And that's possible only
with a visionary who will set a clear and ambitious direction for all the
various product teams at Google.

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bdcravens
I think there's a ton of room at the bottom. There was a time when DVD players
and home computers were out of the reach of the poor or lower middle class.
Most (responsible) people can't afford a $500+ tablet, but the promise of
tablet computing still applies to them. It's a lie to say that the promise of
tablet computing can only be accomplished in a $500+ package. There's tons of
room for tablets that are $250 or less - see all the "low end" phone providers
that now have Android offerings.

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enraged_camel
There's room at the bottom in terms of market share, but not in terms of
profits. Android has captured a bigger chunk of the market, but Apple is
reaping most of the profits (since their devices are high margin) and is
therefore in a much better position to innovate or leap on opportunities that
come up. I mean, who wouldn't want to sit on a $120+ billion warchest?

What's going to be really interesting is when (if) the "iPad Mini" comes out.
There was an article on Ars Technica last month where a reputable analyst
claimed Apple found a way to manufacture iPad Minis with the last generation
iPad's components. What that means is that even at $250, the device would be
extremely high margin. Not only would it allow Apple to lock down the lower
market segment, but also result in a huge increase in profits. From a business
standpoint it seems like a no-brainer, because a cheap and yet high margin
device is not something that other manufacturers can imitate.

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josteink
_Apple is reaping most of the profits (since their devices are high margin)_

Why would anyone except Apple and its shareholders care about that? Why would
_you_ care about that?

All that should tell you is that you (as an Apple-customer) is getting ripped
off.

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enraged_camel
Not really. As a consumer, I am perfectly fine with Apple making a lot of
money as long as I get a high quality product with superior user experience.
The way I look at it is that I am paying a premium for a much better product.

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buster
Sure it will. Everyone who says no is (in my oppinion) trapped in the famous
Apple Reality Distortion Field(tm) ;)

It's the same situation as with the iPhone. People said "noooo, the iPhone
will be king ever!!". Nope.

Honestly, how could this even happen? With one tablet? Or 2? Where is the
diversity? Where is the low-cost option? Where is my tablet with keyboard
attached? Etc. etc.

Android is about choice, it will win this, undoubtly. As long as Apple doesn't
produce much more different hardware and delivers at much more price points,
they will not win the whole market. But well. There is always the high margin
top niche ;)

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rahoulb
No, I can't think of a single product range where apple held on to a 70%+
market share despite lower priced and more feature rich competitors _cough_
ipod _cough_

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MatthewPhillips
The iPod has 4 form factors.

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rahoulb
The iPod had one form factor for the first three years of its existence. The
iPad already has two distinct models and is likely to have a third this month.

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MatthewPhillips
Are you calling the iPad 2 and iPad 3 "distinct models"? I think you are
misunderstanding what the grandparent means when they talk about choice.

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protomyth
If the iPad mini (or whatever it is actually going to be called) comes out at
$199, that takes a lot of room out of the bottom of the market. If it is $249
or $299, then the Fire and other have some space to play in.

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stcredzero
I think Apple's strategy here is to keep the price pressure on for the bottom
end of the market. Since their margins are better than everyone else's, they
can give up some of that to deliver a 7" tablet that keeps the competitors in
the low price ghetto, struggling to compete, while Apple makes $$ in the high
end.

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zabraxias
I absolutely agree but I am guessing a price tag of $300 which wouldn't quite
achieve keeping the competition at bay.

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protomyth
If they repeat their iPod strategy, then $199 is the 7" price point. I agree,
$299 is not going to put the pricing pressure on the low-end.

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stcredzero
So, the Shuffle was to put pressure on the low end of the market?

If they can sell a tablet for $199 and still make $30 profit, they can put a
heck of a lot of price pressure on competitors.

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flyinglizard
All I know is that after having the Nexus 7, the iPad (3, which I also have)
feels like a burden to use. Slower, double the weight, not nearly as portable
and iOS feels byzantine next to Jelly Bean. My friends universally share my
sentiments.

Apple market share will fall over time to 20%-30%. You can't cater to all
users with a single product, and they don't bring enough innovation to make
their product a must-have.

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bdcravens
My other take: no. Highly customized Android tablets will (Kindle Fires and
Nook tablets). Most users don't root them; they use them as the walled gardens
they're designed to be. Pure Android devices will continue to be a minority.
(OP's article suggests this, with Fire's at 50% of "Android" tablet market)

To me, a Kindle Fire is as much an "Android" tablet as a Nexus 7 is a "Linux"
tablet.

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MatthewPhillips
I don't think Fred Wilson's point was that they all use a common interface.
Being a VC, I'm guessing the app compatibility is the thing he cares about.

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sgt
Android may overtake iPad or not - what are the real implications of this? I
think it'll stabilize at some point where either iPad has a little more market
share or little less.

Practically it doesn't really matter much. The iOS ecosystem will still
thrive, and I personally I think a bit of healthy competition is exactly what
we need to push the tablet world forward.

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sksksk
How come people don't consider ebooks as competitors to the tablets?

I had a first generation iPad, and I did use it a lot. Then I got a notebook
computer to replace my desktop, and started using that more.

I pretty much only used my iPad while commuting, and then made an impulse
purchase and got a Kindle. I find I use my Kindle all the time, and haven't
touched the iPad for over a year now.

As a device that sits between a phone and a notebook/desktop, I think ebook
readers are viable competition to tablets

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tsieling
Likely, so long as the definition of an Android tablet stays stretchy and
flexible: does it need Google's seal of approval? does it need to be
upgradeable to subsequent official Android releases? does it just need to have
started with Android? There's no solid definition, so we end up trying to
compare one product from one company against a spectrum of design and build
approaches (and quality levels) and boil it down to a coherent horse race. No
wonder the numbers from different tracking points are out of whack.

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bryanlarsen
Due to subsidies, there's a lot more room at the bottom in tablets. You can
get an iPhone for $99, if you sign a contract, so to be much "cheaper" than
that the difference is a subtle one based on contract terms. If the next nexus
is $100 as rumored that puts it into impulse buy territory for most
westerners.

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RexRollman
I could see it happen, especially if you count things like the Nook and Kindle
Touch as Android tablets.

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habosa
Yes, they may have already done so. Recent reports show Android with 48% of
market share WITHOUT counting Nexus 7 or Kindle Fire HD/Nook Tablet HD sales.
I'd say those will easily cover the missing 2%.

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jfb
Almost certainly, if by "overtake" one means "sells more units" and Android
means "is built on a fork of Android". Apple will likely continue to capture
the overwhelming share of profit.

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wutbrodo
I believe these figures were pre-Nexus 7 (and pre Kindle Fire HD line), so all
else held equal, I'd imagine these figures are skewed slightly downwards.

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robocat
The question is too coarse.

In which markets will Android tablets overtake iPads?

In which markets do Android tablets already outsell iPads?

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robocat
This article has 3 graphs (for mobile phone market) that are very relevant to
tablets as well:

[http://www.asymco.com/2012/05/03/the-phone-market-
in-2012-a-...](http://www.asymco.com/2012/05/03/the-phone-market-
in-2012-a-tale-of-two-disruptions/)

Does "crossing the chasm" apply to the tablet market? Massive sales of cheap
tablets/phablets in countries where iPad's are grossly unaffordable (price of
a Rolex is US equivalent) will generate companies that can eat Apple's pie. It
will take years, but it has already happened (Korea and China), and is
happening in non-US markets.

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robocat
Oops correction - Koreans buy iPads (70% to 80% market share in Q2).

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tomjen3
Why not? It happened with the I phone, and the PC when it took over the market
(although Apple wasn't as dominant back then).

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jarcoal
Volume? Almost certainly. Profit? No chance.

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bdcravens
Sure. Most responsible lower-middle class or poor families can't afford an
iPad, but something in the $99-300 range is doable. This is the trajectory
that smart phones went: I see tons of people with Android Crickets.

As others have pointed out, this should have no bearing on Apple's success:
I've never met someone who wanted a MacBook Pro who changed their mind because
of a $299 laptop at WalMart.

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josteink
_Most responsible lower-middle class or poor families can't afford an iPad_

That statement makes no sense. Everyone and their grandma can have an iPad.
They are being given away for "free", bundled with 3G subscriptions.

Android tablets you actually have to buy.

Where I live, Android-tablets are mostly found among wealthier, informed
people.

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onedev
No. (as per Betteridge's law)

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gmoore
probably

