
Math and Computer Wizards Now Billionaires Thanks to Quant Trading - 6502nerdface
http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2015/09/29/rich-formula-math-and-computer-wizards-now-billionaires-thanks-to-quant-trading-secrets/
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ChuckFrank
Please, let's stop with all the success bias. Let's add in some stories about
those that lost their shirts due to Quant trading.

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scoreponok
I think the correct term is survivorship bias. I like this quote from Nassim
Talebs book The Black Swan - "The cemetery of failed restaurants is very
silent". I also very much like this example of the bias:

"During World War II, the statistician Abraham Wald took survivorship bias
into his calculations when considering how to minimize bomber losses to enemy
fire. Researchers from the Center for Naval Analyses had conducted a study of
the damage done to aircraft that had returned from missions, and had
recommended that armor be added to the areas that showed the most damage. Wald
noted that the study only considered the aircraft that had survived their
missions — the bombers that had been shot down were not present for the damage
assessment. The holes in the returning aircraft, then, represented areas where
a bomber could take damage and still return home safely. Wald proposed that
the Navy instead reinforce the areas where the returning aircraft were
unscathed, since those were the areas that, if hit, would cause the plane to
be lost."

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arcanus
I find it surprising they implied Overdeck is a superior mathematician to Tao.
Winning the fields medal is a public award, based on his excellent papers and
results.

Contrast this with some event in Tribeca the article does not even provide the
name of.

Color me skeptical.

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auntienomen
Judging mathematical talent by these sorts of competitions is a bit like
judging athletic talent by holding arm wrestling competitions. Probably
indicative, but not overwhelming evidence. Anyways, I doubt anyone familiar
with both thinks Overdeck is a better mathematician than Tao. But this article
is from Forbes, and their audience of businessmen may not mind seeing a
businessman portrayed as smarter than the professor.

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Achshar
It's a dead link for me. The original from google search also seems to be
dead. Someone seems to have pulled the article. And the google cache is also
returning null.

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mikedmiked
Forbes website shows a blank page if you are using adblockers or noscript or
some other extensions.

Open the link in an incognito window and it will work.

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spacecowboy_lon
Surely its those who employ "math and computer wizards" that are Billionaires.

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vixen99
You should read the article before commenting.

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spacecowboy_lon
John is a hedge fund manager which is how he made is billions

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ksk
I never seem to understand why gambling with other peoples money is
celebrated. Its not like they were a startup trying to create and market a
product and struck it rich.

If you had to stretch it, there is a thin veneer of celebrating math in the
article. But lets face it, if there was no money involved, forbes would most
certainly not be covering mathematicians discussing equations.

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melling
No, they used stochastic to reduce risk and find patterns in the markets.

[http://www.amazon.com/Against-Gods-Remarkable-Story-
Risk/dp/...](http://www.amazon.com/Against-Gods-Remarkable-Story-
Risk/dp/0471295639)

You prefer the old fashion way?

Aren't startups gambling with other people's money? What's the success rate
there? 1 in 100?

