
Restricting Visas Leads to Offshoring - Gimpei
https://www.nber.org/papers/w27538
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troydavis
Here's an earlier version of the paper, which is public:
[https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3547655](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3547655)

2 excerpts from that version:

> Translating these coefficients into the number of jobs offshored, I find
> that about 0.3 foreign affiliate jobs were created for every unfilled H-1B
> position.

> …

> I utilize two identification strategies, the first of which exploits the
> 2004 drop in the H-1B visa cap, while the second exploits variation in firm-
> level excess demand from the H-1B visa lotteries in high demand years. Both
> strategies yield the same result: that foreign affiliate employment
> increased as a direct response to increasingly stringent restrictions on
> H-1B visas. This effect is driven on the extensive and intensive margins;
> firms were more likely to open foreign affiliates in new countriesin
> response, and employment increased at existing foreign affiliates. The
> effect is strongest among R&D-intensive firms in industries where services
> could more easily be offshored. The effect was somewhat geographically
> concentrated: foreign affiliate employment increased both in countries like
> India and China with large quantities of high-skilled human capital and in
> countries like Canada with more relaxed high-skilled immigration policies
> and closer geographic proximity.

