
SpaceX plans to debut Red Dragon with 2018 Mars mission - cpeterso
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/04/spacex-debut-red-dragon-2018-mars-mission/
======
aerovistae
So exciting watching SpaceX work. I wish other companies would take a cue from
them and be as transparent about their goals and progress. Makes SpaceX 100x
more fascinating than ULA and other competitors. Who needs a marketing team
when you can casually throw out your plans to go to another planet within a
few years and have people know you mean it? Moreover, who would go to work for
a competitor when one company is heading to Mars and the competition is . . .
not doing anything, really. How can ULA hire _anyone_ beyond third-pick
candidates?

~~~
blhack
>How can ULA hire anyone beyond third-pick candidates?

I have some good friends that work for $unamed_spacex_competitor and their
claim is essentially that spacex is considered a "bad" job in the industry.
They talk about it like it's a sweatshop.

Honestly, I think it's just jealousy. If you meet somebody and tell them you
work for spacex, they think you're a rockstar. If you meet somebody and tell
them you work for Boeing, they say "oh, I didn't know Boeing made rockets, you
should go work for spacex!".

It _does_ sound like SpaceX is long hours and hard work...but a lot of people
really enjoy that sort of thing.

~~~
btilly
My impression, confirmed by people who work at SpaceX, is that SpaceX is for
people whose desired work/life balance is strongly tilted towards work.

The work is long, hard and rewarding. But it's clearly not for everyone. And
they're pretty up front about that.

~~~
mattbeckman
I went through the interview process, and it went really well. I got the tour,
met some interesting people, had a solid interview, but I didn't get an offer.
I like to think I didn't get an offer because I asked about work-life balance
with wife & kids one too many times. :) It might have been a good thing to not
get that job.

~~~
celticninja
Sounds like you were not going to be a good fit for them. I expect this will
be why they are keen on recent grads with little in the way of a personal life
and still plenty of energy for all nighters.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Its less of a job, and more a tour of duty before moving on to greener
pastures.

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kilroy123
I really really want to see us go to Mars. I want to see humanity become a
multi-planet species and eventually have a colony on Mars.

Still, I have to point out and ask, what the hell is the financial incentive
for SpaceX to go to Mars? This is still a private business, with investors!
What money will be made from this?

~~~
cryptoz
Musk has suggested that a Mars colony is most viable if you can sell tickets
at a market price of about $500,000. Or rather, that a mid-to-upper class
family in California might decide to move to Mars instead of buying a house on
Earth. I've seen estimates that would place the number of early potential
customers at 80,000[1]. So one very large revenue stream will be direct ticket
sales to people like me.

Another early revenue stream will be science done and paid for by governments,
universities, etc. There will eventually be a Martian economy, and SpaceX will
be well-suited to earning money from the colonies [2]. There will be lots of
ways to make lots of money if you have a thriving Mars colony with millions of
people moving there and a constant supply of materials going both directions.

[1]: So that's people that will be able to afford to go in 20 years and who
also want to move to Mars.

[2]: How much value has America created since it was a colony? Sure, Britain
didn't actually earn that money itself since there was a war over it - but
establishing colonies in "new worlds" does seem like it could be a very
profitable venture.

~~~
overcast
Yes, but who in their right mind would choose to leave beautiful California,
to live in desolation on Mars? Sure it's important to explore new worlds, but
expecting a family to pack up and leave this world for one with absolutely
nothing sounds a bit far fetched.

~~~
lsaferite
Well, families with children make things a bit less likely, but I 100% would
be on a list to go if I was childless. Even knowing it was a one way trip.
Life is already short and if you cannot do something truly meaningful (subject
to personal interpretation), then what are you doing with your life?
Meaningful to me happens to include space exploration. Having had kids that
list also includes raising my part of the next generation to be good members
of the human race.

~~~
derekp7
The thing is, when you get there you are essentially living in a small prison
cell. At least until there is enough infrastructure to move around in. But
your activities are still limited to about what you can do sitting in a little
room in front of a computer.

Just thinking about some small things, such as going swimming, or riding a
bicycle on a path through the woods. Or hiking / camping, or driving a sports
car along a twisty mountain road.

~~~
MaulingMonkey
> But your activities are still limited to about what you can do sitting in a
> little room in front of a computer.

Which sounds fine until you remember you'll have a ping in the realm of 4-24
_minutes_. And you thought you had trouble matchmaking in some games _now_...

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11thEarlOfMar
The interesting question to me personally is the political one. The 'Moon
Treaty' [0] apparently is a failure.

Is Musk on record anywhere about 'ownership', 'rights', 'obligations' of those
exploring, colonizing and profiting from Mars?

[0]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_Treaty)

~~~
LyndsySimon
If there is only one entity capable of reaching the place, I'm not sure pre-
existing treaties and such have any relevance.

~~~
brooklyndavs
They still have relevance. Lets take the Antartica treaty for example. Lets,
for the sake of argument, say only one entity has the knowledge, resources,
etc to reach Antartica and this entity is a subsidiary of BP. BP-Antartica
lets say. BP-Antartica wants to drill for oil. This would still be a violation
of international law under the treaty that governs Antartica. Same thing
applies, or should apply to SpaceX or any other entity (public or private)
with regard to any existing and future space treaties.

"International law identifies Antarctica and outer space as two of four global
commons (the others being the high seas and the atmosphere). Both have been
defined within international regimes as spaces outside the territory of nation
states and beyond the normative inhabitable zones of the human species. In
both instances the current governance regime were outcomes of the
International Geophysical Year (IGY) (1957-1958)."

[http://phys.org/news/2015-08-antarctica-key-
space.html](http://phys.org/news/2015-08-antarctica-key-space.html)

Specifically in the Antartica treaty:

"No acts or activities taking place while the present Treaty is in force shall
constitute a basis for asserting, supporting or denying a claim to territorial
sovereignty in Antarctica or create any rights of sovereignty in Antarctica.
No new claim, or enlargement of an existing claim to territorial sovereignty
in Antarctica shall be asserted while the present Treaty is in force."

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Treaty_System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Treaty_System)

~~~
gus_massa
If tomorrow the 5 permanent members of the United Nations Security Council
(China, France, Russia, UK, USA) and their atomic weapons decide to cancel the
Antarctica treaty, then the treaty is void. They can invite to the ceremony
the other members of the UNSC, but I guess it's better to invite the other
countries with atomic weapons.

They didn't cancel it yet because for now there is currently no activity there
with a profit, and they are not sure how to divide it. But once there is a way
to gain money, don't expect that the treaty will last too much.

~~~
djrogers
Realistically any 1 or 2 of those members could unilaterally 'cancel' the
treaty. Treaties are only useful until someone violates them, then you have to
figure out what comes next...

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greglindahl
Here's an example of a proposed mission to Mars using Falcon Heavy and Dragon:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Dragon_%28spacecraft%29](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Dragon_%28spacecraft%29)

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j1vms
For all the good SpaceX is doing (and it is great indeed), has Musk taken
steps to prevent his company from turning into essentially the Weyland-Yutani
Corporation in say 50 or 100 years from now? A question made partly in jest of
course.

I guess a response would include Musk's well-known fears of AI, though I don't
recall him stating he is afraid of out-of-control private interests with
respect to interplanetary exploration and colonization.

~~~
marze
If Mars "secedes", I'm sure looking forward to a possible real life battle of
worlds, something thus far only enjoyed through scifi and games.

~~~
aerovistae
Laughable. What would they fight over? I love sci-fi too, but let's be
realistic.

If Musk succeeds, and I believe he will, it will still be quite a long time,
possibly hundreds of years, before there's any notable population on Mars
beyond a single city.

They won't have any resources we don't have here, aside from Martian tourist
trinkets, and the cost of getting resources from Mars to Earth would defeat
any potential profit anyone could make. Musk has said this more than once. In
scifi, this plot flaw is usually undone by having the alien planet possess a
resource that can't be found or made anywhere else, like Avatar's unobtainium
or Dune's Melange. But in the real world, that's not a thing.

If we're not fighting over resources, then what? So what if the Martian
colonists declare independence? Independence from who, anyway? "Earth"?
Because it won't be an extension of any existing country, it won't just be "US
territory on Mars." It'll be its own entity, with inhabitants from a variety
of the countries on Earth. And it's not like Earth is going to be demanding
"tribute" from it, that makes no sense on any level.

In Heinlein's "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress," the Earth demands grain
shipments from the Moon to feed its overgrown population. But....is that
likely, really? Are we really likely to be dependent on grain shipments from
Mars? It's a fun scenario, but I doubt it. It seems more likely to me that
they'll find ways to scale grain production with existing land, as they have
done for decades and continue to do today.

~~~
Crespyl
The one thing that I can think of which Mars has in abundance and is limited
on Earth is plain old real-estate.

In a century's time (give or take), being able to build sprawling, cheap (for
certain values of cheap), polluting factories without having to worry about
poisoning the local rivers or running afoul of environmental regulations might
start to look like a decent deal.

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cmsmith
I guess this means they're taking a "better to ask forgiveness than
permission" attitude towards planetary protection? Musk is on the record as
not being worried about contaminating Mars with Earth life, and it seems like
a 2 year time frame wouldn't give them time to put together a JPL-style clean
room operation. Is there anything that NASA could/would do to stop them from
landing a 'dirty' Dragon on Mars?

~~~
T-A
The article says they are doing this with NASA, carrying instrumentation of
unspecified origin. My guess: SpaceX hands a Dragon to NASA which sterilizes
and outfits it with instrumentation and then hands it, enclosed, back to
SpaceX to launch.

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soperj
Looks like the best date is April 30th 2018.
[http://clowder.net/hop/railroad/EMa.htm](http://clowder.net/hop/railroad/EMa.htm)

~~~
DavidSJ
That site says it assumes circular and coplanar orbits for Earth and Mars. I'm
guessing it also assumes a Hohmann transfer for the spacecraft. All three of
those assumptions could affect the optimal departure date by weeks.

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dmritard96
So who all needs to sign off on something like this? Whoever's air space you
are in at launch seems like one, perhaps that means a few different countries.
Anyone else?

~~~
JshWright
All of SpaceX's launch sites are in the US (in fact, the two active sites are
on ranges owned by the US Air Force). Their rockets (like all US based orbital
rockets) are launched over the ocean, and are well into 'space' before they
fly over any other countries.

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perilunar
I don't understand why Musk is so focused on a Mars Colony. Why go to all the
effort of climbing out of one gravity well just to drop yourself down another?

It be a lot easier to mine asteroids and build colonies in Earth or solar
orbit. And potentially hugely profitable if they choose a platinum-rich
asteroid.

See further: 'The High Frontier: Human Colonies in Space' by Gerard K. O'Neill

'Mining the Sky' by John S. Lewis

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soperj
Elon is usually pretty ambitious in his timing, but even if this happens
before 2020, that's incredible.

~~~
gozur88
Given SpaceX's inability to estimate time frames (the F9 Heavy is, what, four
years late?), I would be shocked if this happened at all, let alone before
2030.

~~~
phpnode
Falcon Heavy is late, but making Falcon Heavy economical means making all of
the 3 F9 first stages it uses reusable. They haven't cracked that yet, they've
got 2 good landings and a lot of data, but it's far from certain whether e.g.
the landing attempt next week will be successful.

Most of their customers do not need the extra payload / push of Falcon Heavy
and so they're concentrating on making F9 itself work first. This is
reasonable I think.

~~~
gozur88
Oh, I understand the reasons for the delay, and they're good reasons. I was
just pointing out they tend to miss their time estimates by a wide margin.

~~~
JshWright
I'm right there with you on SpaceX and timelines (my recent post history here
includes trying to convince folks that just because they landed a stage
doesn't mean cheap and easy rocket reuse is right around the corner). In this
case however, my gut feeling is that they're a lot deeper into the development
cycle of this project and they feel pretty confident about the 2018 timeframe.

~~~
gozur88
I hope you're right. We'll see.

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Animats
OK, so SpaceX want to get NASA to pay for this. Is that in NASA's budget?

2018 with a Falcon Heavy is optimistic. The first flight of the Falcon Heavy
isn't expected until 2017. Last year, the first flight was scheduled for
spring 2016, but it's slipped to the "end of 2016", which means 2017 in SpaceX
time.

Space-X needs to get those paid Falcon 9 launches going faster. That's the
revenue generator. They're a year behind on launches, and they've been losing
unhappy customers to Arianespace. The Brownsville launch site project is way
behind schedule; they're building on sandy soil (what did they expect on the
east coast of Texas?) and have delayed a year or two for soil compaction.

It's great to have an ambitious program, but the profitable products have to
ship.

~~~
dsp1234
_OK, so SpaceX want to get NASA to pay for this. Is that in NASA 's budget?_

as was noted in another comment[0]:

“We’re particularly excited about an upcoming SpaceX project that would build
upon a current ‘no-exchange-of-funds’ agreement we have with the company,”
noted NASA deputy Administrator Dava Newman. “In exchange for Martian entry,
descent, and landing data from SpaceX, NASA will offer technical support for
the firm’s plan to attempt to land an uncrewed Dragon 2 spacecraft on Mars.”

SpaceX gets expertise and technical support, and NASA gets data. This isn't a
normal contract where NASA is paying with cash.

[0] -
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11583770](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11583770)

~~~
iwwr
However you go about it, you need access to the Deep Space Network for
telemetry and communication.

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lorenzhs
Exciting news! The Dragon capsule, using drag and retro-thrusters to
decelerate, could even land at much higher elevations than previous Mars
missions using parachutes for breaking.

There also was the idea to use it for sample return missions, not sure what
became of that. EDIT: Seems to be planned for 2022 at the earliest, see
[http://www.space.com/30504-spacex-red-dragon-mars-sample-
ret...](http://www.space.com/30504-spacex-red-dragon-mars-sample-return.html)

------
ck2
I want to live long enough to see a Tesla rover being driven on Mars.

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peter303
Now watch Bezos do some spectacular moonshot to beat Musk.

~~~
zspade
If SpaceX Succeeds at this, we're going to have to update that term...

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soperj
I wonder if they'll send another to Europa in 2019(Feb 28).
([http://clowder.net/hop/railroad/EJ.htm](http://clowder.net/hop/railroad/EJ.htm))
that's the next closest launch window that FH can make it to after the April
30th 2018 Launch window to Mars

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ChuckMcM
Interesting, tweet. I suppose if its an unmanned Dragon with just instruments
or something, and they execute flawlessly on Falcon Heavy, and they catch a
break in terms of getting the landing stuff qualified. That has to be an
extremely aggressive schedule with no margin for error.

~~~
btkramer9
I hope they would fill it with resources future settlers could use. More
realistic too. Although, I could understand keeping it empty in order to
maximize the success rate.

~~~
ChuckMcM
Given Elon's sense of humor I'm guessing these 'red dragons' would have a
bunch of instruments to insure the mission success and collect data on the
environment around them, _and_ to have something like several boxes of
vegetable seeds or hard candy. Basically something that a future visitor would
enjoy having and might not have thought to bring along. If he was a fan of the
Martian if could be a flash drive with movies and music.

~~~
XorNot
But will the Culture ship names keep happening? This is the most important
question! (Also a good name idea)

~~~
boznz
Boaty McBoat-Face

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qaq
OK after establishing Mars colony, what's next for Elon? Interstellar travel?

~~~
wilonth
He's already in his forties, he would go straight to terraforming Mars if he
could, but I suppose building a Mars colony in his working lifetime is
difficult already. p.s: I hope I could somehow become good enough to build on
his legacy

------
TorKlingberg
Cool! Has SpaceX published any plans for how to return from Mars? I am not
trying to be critical, it would just be interesting to see their ideas.

~~~
akita-ken
As rst has mentioned, details on how the Red Dragon would return from the
Martian surface have so far been quite sketchy. However, the basic outline for
a proposed sample return mission involves having a Mars Ascent Vehicle pop off
the top of the Red Dragon capsule to get the payload into low Mars orbit. Once
there it jettisons the ascent stage and ignites a second stage to place it
into a trajectory for trans-Earth injection. Essentially, it's packing a small
two-stage rocket for the trip home. [1]

It'll be interesting to find out if the payload capacity of the MAV is
actually enough for a crewed capsule to be launched to rendezvous with an
orbiting vessel (a la The Martian), or if that would require a much larger
descent vehicle in the first place.

[1] [http://www.space.com/24984-spacex-mars-mission-red-
dragon.ht...](http://www.space.com/24984-spacex-mars-mission-red-dragon.html)

~~~
Ankaios
That isn't a SpaceX concept—it was proposed by some NASA people.

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geoelectric
Maybe I'm just too much of a Varley fan, but I was really hoping for "Red
Thunder."

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AYBABTME
I've always been wondering if it's even possible for non US residents to work
there.

~~~
T-A
Browse their job listings and you will see this: "To conform to U.S.
Government space technology export regulations, applicant must be a U.S.
citizen, lawful permanent resident of the U.S., protected individual as
defined by 8 U.S.C. 1324b(a)(3), or eligible to obtain the required
authorizations from the U.S. Department of State." [1]

Some background here: [https://www.quora.com/Can-a-person-of-non-U-S-
citizenship-ge...](https://www.quora.com/Can-a-person-of-non-U-S-citizenship-
get-a-job-as-an-engineer-scientist-in-any-of-the-aerospace-defence-companies-
in-the-US-like-NASA-L-M-A-SpaceX-etc)

[1]
[http://www.spacex.com/careers/position/8316](http://www.spacex.com/careers/position/8316)

