

Twitter Has the "Now Syndrome" - dshipper
http://danshipper.com/the-now-syndrome

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natrius
_"And so in their effort to make billions now, Twitter is slashing and burning
the same 3rd party developers that helped to make it the behemoth it is
today."_

Third-party Twitter _clients_ (that is, replacements for Twitter's site and
official apps) had little impact on Twitter's success. It's a story that
sounds good, but I don't see any evidence for it. Those are the only
developers that are materially hurt by Twitter's new policies.

 _"They spend the 6 months they could have used learning to code, trying to
find a cofounder instead."_

Someone who thinks they might want to start a software business in the future
should definitely learn how to program. Someone who's starting a software
business _right now_ should pay someone else in dollars or equity to get it
done. It takes more than six months to become a competent programmer, let
alone become familiar with the tools and practices needed to build a modern
web application or mobile app. This just isn't very good advice at all.

~~~
danenania
While it definitely would take a novice programmer much longer than 6 months
to learn to build a production caliber web app, it's plenty of time to make a
functioning prototype and get some perspective on the craft. This can focus
and clarify the concept, get you taken more seriously, and make you about
1000% more effective at hiring and managing developers down the line.

Unless you have piles of money or friends in high places, learning some
programming is a great place to start if you want to build a tech startup and
aren't already a developer. It isn't the be-all end-all, but I'd definitely
agree that spending 6 months educating yourself and getting something created,
even if it's sloppy, is better use of time than cruising around meetups and
networking events trying to find someone to implement your idea for you. Ditto
for hiring contractors who you can afford and won't leave you with a lemon
when you have no basis for judging whether someone knows wtf they're talking
about.

~~~
natrius
If you don't have money _and_ you don't know how to program, don't quit your
day job.

------
graiz
Twitter is just being stupid. They could easily offer a "pro" version of
twitter that would give end-users verified accounts, added stats, better
photos, wide open use of the API for 3rd party apps, etc.

Some calculations... \- 500 million accounts. \- 1% conversion (they could 2%
or higher) \- 5 million conversions \- $50/year Wooo hoo. $250 million. Ok,
not a billion but not a bad start, all without burning developers or free
users.

Charge businesses for business level accounts and analytics and you could get
another $250M.

Twitter's problem isn't just a "Now" problem it's a management team that's
following Facebook on their path to ad failure.

~~~
SoftwareMaven
Twitter dies if they lose 98% of their users. So many people would leave that
you'd never be able to keep even 1%.

Watching Twitter and app.net over the next couple of years should be
fascinating. Twitter can't start charging, but app.net is starting there. If
they get 1% of Twitter's population, they are a huge success. And Twitter just
gifted them a lot of potential developers.

~~~
kmfrk
I think that depends a lot on how it's marketed. If it's touted as something
that regular users ought to have access to as well, it _might_ tick off a lot
of people, but it doesn't have to be like that.

Although I wouldn't be surprised if the knuckleheads at Twitter botched it.

~~~
endersshadow
I agree. Think of the way Reddit Gold works. It doesn't really take anything
away from the Reddit experience, but it does give folks some additional value
that those that feel like paying for it, do. If Twitter just adds features for
the premium side, and doesn't strip current features from free users, it
should be easy to make that transition.

------
dy
After reading the Innovator's Dilemma, you start seeing this effect everywhere
and it applies equally in people's careers. I think it's probably the same
principle as the law of diminishing return - you're getting less and less out
of your current path but it's still more than some other perceived endeavor.

Perhaps there is some disruptive thing Twitter could do that will eventually
disrupt their current advertising model and be a true billion dollar business.
It's possible they don't see it (or less likely, there is NO path for them to
get where they need to be) and so they're letting it be known that they're
planning on extracting increasing rents from their current income streams.

~~~
dshipper
Interesting, I've never read that book. But that's a nice take: your feedback
loop isn't functional enough to notice diminishing returns. Putting it on my
list.

~~~
dy
Prepare to have your mind blown! :)

Innovator's Solution is probably the better book (same ideas expressed, but
more in-depth thinking on how to fix it inside your company by Christensen).

It's a must-read by startups because it puts you in the right mind-set of why
your crappy little MVP can possibly disrupt powerful incumbents.

Thanks for your article - I've been enjoying your posts!

~~~
davidw
Good books, but can't they mostly just be summed up in a page or two?

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovation>

~~~
kmfrk
No.

------
JohnExley
In addition to being a young founder, Dan could be the most talented writer I
know. Engineering + communication, quite a mix.

~~~
tessr
He's also a genuinely nice guy. A triple threat, if you will. ;)

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majani
I think this is the problem with the "product first, business later" approach
that's dogma in Silicon Valley. People get used to such an extreme
user/developer-centric experience that when the time comes for making some
profit, it seems absurd to many people. What's so wrong with building the
business and the product at the same time?

------
MatthewPhillips
> And so what happens? They spend the 6 months they could have used learning
> to code, trying to find a cofounder instead.

Who goes from not knowing how to code to being a decent to good coder in 6
months? Maybe I'm just not that smart, but it took me many years to get to
that level. Learn a few basics, hit a plateau, light-bulb is triggered on some
concept accelerating your growth, hit another plateau, and on and on like
that.

------
ludicast
Agree 100% on nontechnical founder thing. And the sad thing is, though the
level of skill needed for sustainable application development is very high,
for building MVPs you need to know very little.

Like not 6 months worth, but on the order of a for dummies book. The fact that
someone doesn't do this shows me they lack the desire and courage to achieve
their vision.

Not sure how I'd tie it into Twitter, but my 2 cents.

