
Manufacturing Jobs Aren’t Coming Back - SQL2219
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/602869/manufacturing-jobs-arent-coming-back/
======
a2tech
Yup. This is what I was just arguing with my family about-they voted Trump
because they want manufacturing jobs back. I pointed out that if the US
imposes trade tariff's high enough to make manufacturing things like steel
cost effective again in the US the people that build the plants will simply
put in these kinds of robots-not people. Robots work Saturday and Sunday for
the same cost as a week day and with far less bitching.

~~~
Inconel
It is my feeling that at least some of the anger being expressed isn't so much
about jobs being displaced by robots today or in the near future, although
these are serious concerns as well, but instead the steady hollowing out of
these manufacturing jobs through offshoring over a period of 20-30 years were
the overwhelming financial benefits have gone to a very small portion of the
American population, namely those occupying high positions within
multinational corporations.

~~~
6502nerdface
Arguably the overwhelming benefits have gone to a very _large_ portion of the
American population, so large that it's hard for individuals to trace and see.
Think of the cascade of effects of all these manufacturing outputs being
created more efficiently/cheaply, which in turn are inputs to other products,
and the opportunity savings of which flow into other endeavors all around us.

However, I do generally agree with your diagnosis that the anger isn't so much
about automation per se, as about changes in post-war economic structures
finally starting to reach some tipping point, whether perceived rightly or
not.

~~~
cmdrfred
Do you have any data for that position?

Wage growth for example has been flat overall:

[https://frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-
tracker/?panel=1](https://frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker/?panel=1)

Half of Americans make under 30k a year:

[http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/10/goodbye-middle-
class-...](http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/10/goodbye-middle-
class-51-percent-of-all-american-workers-make-less-than-30000-dollars-a-
year.html)

Yet the cost of goods has been increasing steadily:

[http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-
infla...](http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-
rates/)

~~~
yummyfajitas
Wage growth has been flat because compensation has shifted from wages to
benefits. Real compensation per hour has done nothing but increase.

[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COMPRNFB](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COMPRNFB)

~~~
cmdrfred
98 dollars in 2004 to 105 dollars now is a downward trend once you factor
inflation.

~~~
yummyfajitas
The data I cited already takes inflation into account. You can tell from the
word "real" in the title of the series.

~~~
cmdrfred
My mistake. Still how much of this growth is hitting the poor and middle class
as opposed to executives? My data excludes salaries above 100k.

------
GFischer
A family member that works with industrial assembly lines purchased one, and
it has been a huge boon for him, especially since he doesn't have to
subcontract a welder so much.

He does need a person to watch over the robot for theft and most especially
sabotage, but even then, it's much cheaper than a trained welder (and welds
more cleanly).

The construction syndicate here in Uruguay is very big and very radicalized,
making construction costs ridiculously expensive compared to average wages, I
fear for the first person to bring the bricklaying robot here:

[http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/robots/a22082/wat...](http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/robots/a22082/watch-
this-bricklaying-robot-build-a-house-in-two-days/)

Edit: the robot I'm talking about is a robotic orbital welder, something like
this one:

[https://www.robots.com/articles/viewing/a-round-the-edge-
orb...](https://www.robots.com/articles/viewing/a-round-the-edge-orbital-
welding)

------
noahmbarr
As much as I support higher minimal wages, I can't help but conclude that this
will only accelerate capital expendures in human-replacing automation

~~~
lisivka
Automation is good. Eventually, it will lead to shorter working day (e.g. 6 or
even 4 hours), shorter working week (e.g. 4 days, or even 3.5 days), to longer
vacations, to better health care, earlier retirement, and so on.

~~~
throwaway7767
It would be great if that were the result. But it remains to be seen. The
requirement is that humans decide to change their economic system.

If we don't do that (and human society is really good at staying on autopilot
until problems have gotten truly severe), we'll just end up with a mostly-
automated society where the robot owners have everything and everyone else
lives in a ghetto.

~~~
GarvielLoken
See the Roman Empire economy for references. Massive farms powered by slaves,
plebs living on minimum welfare in poverty. Rich aristocrats spending their
time on propaganda and schemes.

~~~
lisivka
Horror story about society without automation. However, North beat South, so
it is gone.

------
matt_s
Does the US really have a problem with unemployment? Nationally it is at its
lowest since like 2000 - around 5% now. Yes averages are not good to use,
there are areas where it might be 0.5% and some where it is 10%.

Bringing back things we used to do is looking in the rear view mirror. There
should be investments in technology, education geared towards that and
visionary things for us to accomplish for the future.

~~~
fixxer
No, we have a problem with wage growth.

That isn't to say that the types of jobs have a huge impact. If McD paid
$25/hr with full benefits, nobody would give a shit. Kind of hard to make that
sustainable without clawing back real jobs from the 3rd world.

Germany seems to do a fine job with their auto industry, robots and all. I
think this article is very flawed as that $8 task is but one of many and also
one of the few perfect for a robot. "Spot welding isn't coming back to human
manufacturing" is more accurate.

~~~
moyta
And a problem with workers rights, our citizens are not fighting for a better
working environment.

~~~
fixxer
Examples?

~~~
antisthenes
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor_unions_in_the_United_Sta...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor_unions_in_the_United_States)

Here's a good start.

~~~
fixxer
Nope, that isn't a good start. I'm looking for examples that show the US has a
bad working environment. You providing a wiki link to "unions in the USA" does
not address the question.

What is bad about our labor environment and why? And compared to whom?

------
rabboRubble
Question for fellow Hackernewsers... my family is from middle America. One of
my younger female relatives is going into the welding trade. She's one of the
more talented young welders out there blending skill and artistry.

My question is this: what would you suggest as a way to "robot proof" herself
from the inevitable automation of the welding trade while staying true to her
craft?

~~~
FiatLuxDave
Suggestion: Learn to do welding of vacuum chambers. Think A&N corp, Kurt J.
Lesker, etc. The welds have to be done on the inside of the chamber, then
cleaned, and I have yet to see a good robot for this. The market is small
enough that it may cost more to develop a good robot than it is worth. It also
pays higher than standard welding.

/used to hire a vacuum welder

~~~
rabboRubble
Thanks FlatLuxDave! I'll pass this along.

------
WalterBright
One way is to lower the expense of hiring people in the US. An obvious one
would be lowering payroll taxes for certain types of jobs. Another way is to
simply lower the corporate tax rate, which would have the additional benefit
of repatriating tons of money that is sitting offshore because of American tax
rates.

~~~
Inconel
I've never run a company so this may be naive or uninformed on my part, but I
get the impression that hiring and firing people, at least here in California,
can be a costly process with regards to unemployment insurance, litigation for
wrongful termination, etc. Again, I may be overestimating this burden on
businesses so please correct me if I'm wrong.

One thing I've noticed over the years is that despite how good your
interview/hiring process may be, you always end up with some hires that don't
work out which lead me to believe that you probably turn away a near equal
amount of applicants that would have been great employees. It's just very
difficult to evaluate someone over the course of a few interviews. For entry
level positions this is even harder since you may not have much professional
experience or reputation to go by.

I've always thought it would be interesting if companies would run a kind of
tryout phase of employment, say 1-3 months, paid of course, at the end of
which the top performers would be given permanent employment. This way a
company might be willing to take on more marginal applicants with the
knowledge that it will be very easy to terminate them. I'm sure there are
negative aspects of such a system that I'm not considering, but as a person
working in aerospace doing manufacturing/skilled labor and without any formal
education beyond high school to fall back on, I always thought such a system
might be a good way for someone like me to get their foot in the door.

~~~
WalterBright
It is true that lowering the employment "friction" (i.e. cost of hiring and
firing) means that employers will be more willing to take risks on new hires.

Some european countries make it difficult to fire people, with the unintended
consequence that companies become very reluctant to hire in the first place.

------
kaa2102
I like to tinker and build things. I still go to humans for value-added sheet-
metal work and welding. However, downstream, mature manufacturing processes
are ripe for replacement by automation.

------
maxerickson
The plummeting cost of capital plant!

Which to me raises an important question. Why aren't these huge cost
reductions showing up in the prices of products from competitive industries
like autos?

~~~
GFischer
Cars ARE cheaper. However, as a sibling commenter mentions, consumers demand
more features, so they're spending about the same (inflation adjusted).

I took the time to investigate a few months ago and came up with this (UK-
centric) example:

 _Let 's take a cheap car from the 1960s, an Austin Mini Cooper.

A 1960s Mini Cooper was about 500 pounds. That's 10.000 pounds in today's
money.

Today you can buy a Dacia Sandero for 6.000 pounds. That's almost half of a
Mini Cooper._

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12551017](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12551017)

[http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-2232885/Top-...](http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-2232885/Top-5-cheapest-
brand-new-cars-buy-Britain.html)

~~~
nommm-nommm
>consumers demand more features

I don't think customers demand more features as much as governments mandate
more [safety] features. Well, maybe some features are mostly market driven
like power windows replacing crank windows and keyless entry. But I believe
car companies would build bargain basement death machines if they were legally
allowed to.

Here's some inflation adjusted average car prices for the US -
[http://whnt.com/2016/04/25/the-average-car-now-
costs-25449-h...](http://whnt.com/2016/04/25/the-average-car-now-
costs-25449-how-much-was-a-car-the-year-you-were-born/) Cars were the cheapest
in the early 70s.

~~~
GFischer
Interesting graph :) .

To be honest, we have some "bargain basement death machines" on the road here
in Uruguay... but they sure beat the alternative (unsafe motorbikes).

In particular, the Chery QQ (cost in China about U$ 4000) is huge here.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chery_QQ3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chery_QQ3)

------
Mc_Big_G
Haha, yeah I said as much in a FB post to my Trump supporting friends. Do you
really think Trump can stop self-driving cars from taking away your truck
driving job? I doubt it.

------
iamgopal
With all being said, can a country without export or import can grow in terms
of quality of live indefinitely??

------
sfifs
The question is what does $8 per Hour look like when factoring in capital
costs, maintenance and flexibility and that's not addressed by the article.

It's interesting that Apple and others closed ultra modern robotics factory in
the US and now essentially assemble most stuff by hand in China.

It argues that robotics is not always a no brainer choice under many
circumstances (which admittedly would be difficult to create in the US)

~~~
zimpenfish
[http://atomicdelights.com/blog/why-your-next-iphone-wont-
be-...](http://atomicdelights.com/blog/why-your-next-iphone-wont-be-ceramic)
(and other blog posts on the same blog) seems to disagree that Apple
"essentially assembles most stuff by hand" \- e.g.

> Apple is the world's largest owner of CNC milling machines and swiss style
> lathes.

~~~
Inconel
You're correct in that Apple is one of, if not the largest owner of CNC
machines, and that those machines are responsible for a large portion of their
total manufacturing work, but I believe they still use a tremendous amount of
human labor for final assembly.

------
alyeulra
Technology should enhance quality of life of people. when it replaces people,
chaos ensue !

~~~
andrewclunn
So no more dishwasher machines, forget self driving cars, bring back elevator
operators, and have more laws like requiring gas station attendants in New
Jersey... What a horrible notion that impeding progress to give people
pointless work, which makes things less convenient and efficient, is somehow a
fix. The population has gone from 1 to near 7 billion people in just over a
hundred years. Economic incentives against just having more unskilled labor is
not a flaw that needs fixing, it's or economic and environmental necessities
coming into alignment, telling us that having 4+ kids is a bad idea in a world
as overpopulated as this, and instead to have smaller families with more
resources put into educating the one or two kids we do have

~~~
ethanbond
I don't see how this addresses the point that millions of people are suffering
due to automation. Are you saying only the well off should be able to have
kids?

~~~
andrewclunn
I'm saying that the solution to this problem won't come from creating fake
work to trick people into thinking that they're productive members of society.

And honestly everyone should be having fewer kids, but the well off already
are. Turns out that evolutionary and economic forces of selection don't favor
people reproducing beyond their means. People can mistake this emergent
property for a planned eugenics program and blame the messenger whenever
somebody speaks the truth, but better to realize that wanting all human life
to have some intrinsic market value does not make it so and plan accordingly.

~~~
ethanbond
"everyone should be having fewer kids, but the well of already are" seems
directly contradictory to "evolutionary and economic forces don't favor people
reproducing beyond their means."

------
thro32
> _it costs barely $8 an hour to use a robot for spot welding in the auto
> industry, compared to $25 for a worker—and the gap is only going to widen._

This is just wrong. Author does not know much about welding or car
manufacturing.

\- Car welding is a best case for robots. Single task repeated many times
exactly the same way. Try different case and you get $1M/hour.

\- $25/hour human cost is too low. With pauses, errors, delays... $100/hour
would be more reasonable.

\- Germany is exactly in this situation, but does not have problem with
unemployment.

~~~
maxerickson
It's quite likely they are quoting the actual costs from 2 different car
plants.

(that would make them highly task specific, but it would reflect the
difference in welding costs for producing cars on a high volume line)

~~~
thro32
I checked linked study:

> _A human welder today earns around $25 per hour (including benefits), while
> the equivalent operating cost per hour for a robot is around $8 when
> installation, maintenance, and the operating costs of all hardware,
> software, and peripherals are amortized over a five-year depreciation
> period._

So human cost does not include total cost, just labour. Comparable cost would
be around $100

