
US Tax Filings are down 5% as of April 15, 2017 - rodionos
https://www.irs.gov/uac/newsroom/filing-season-statistics-for-week-ending-april-14-2017
======
ig9allo
In the past, many illegal immigrants filed taxes to get refunds. This year,
many tax preparers are reporting a large decrease in illegal immigrants using
their services, because of fear that the information would be shared with the
federal government.

[http://www.npr.org/2017/04/17/523634144/tax-filings-seen-
dip...](http://www.npr.org/2017/04/17/523634144/tax-filings-seen-dipping-amid-
trump-crackdown-on-illegal-immigration)

~~~
downandout
I seriously doubt this could account for a 5% drop in filings. Also, the
primary reason that illegal immigrants file tax returns is to obtain refunds.
Yet the total dollar amount of refunds disbursed actually _increased_ this
year despite the large drop in filings. If the drop in filings were
immigration related, a similar drop in overall refunds would have been the
likely result.

~~~
findateamfirst
Why not? 4.5 million people without SSNS filed last year.

[http://www.npr.org/2017/04/17/523634144/tax-filings-seen-
dip...](http://www.npr.org/2017/04/17/523634144/tax-filings-seen-dipping-amid-
trump-crackdown-on-illegal-immigration)

~~~
mbroshi
The drop in returns received was 6 million.

------
The_Magistrate
Could the 5% drop be accounted for considering the numbers are for April 14th
2017 and not after the filing deadline of April 18th 2017? Seems like many
people would file and/or postmark their returns Monday or Tuesday.

~~~
rodionos
Tax day in 2016 was also April 18th.

~~~
differentView
Why not use stats from April 18th then?

~~~
rodionos
Cause IRS devops isn't there yet. They (collect?) release metrics on Fridays.

~~~
popey456963
It is Friday? Roughly 4PM on Friday, which means they'll likely be closing
down shortly. Seems odd for them to do it as such a last minute thing.

------
Bjorkbat
I have to wonder how politically motivated this might be.

I met an older couple a while ago who refused to file taxes to protest the
war. Wasn't illegal mind you. They simply made sure that they didn't earn more
than cut-off ($9k I believe). They just travelled around in an RV, played folk
songs, and made their living off the kindness of strangers and random odd
jobs.

~~~
nightski
I can imagine the "effectiveness" of this protest... I feel like if you are
going to endure personal sacrifice to make a stand, you need to consider what
the overall impact/objective is and make sure you are doing the right thing to
achieve that objective. There were probably far better paths to go down for
these folks.

~~~
BackODaEnvelope
I don't think of it as a personal sacrifice. I longer have the blood of
innocents on my conscience. Also: I now own most of my own time, which is my
highest value. Low consumption living isn't the sacrifice I thought it would
be when I started.

To each their own.

~~~
nightski
Then they weren't really protesting anything. Just living normally.

Also, for me the sacrifice would not be low consumption living but rather
riding around in an RV singing folk songs. Sounds like torture. As you say, to
each their own. I actually really enjoy what I do for a living.

------
rodionos
Year on year chart:
[https://apps.axibase.com/chartlab/626f6fb9/3/#fullscreen](https://apps.axibase.com/chartlab/626f6fb9/3/#fullscreen)

------
iaw
The job reports numbers looked really good for 2016 but there were always
questions about the "missing workforce."

A possibility I haven't seen raised yet in this thread is that more people are
below the threshold to file, although 5% seems strikingly high.

------
_delirium
Are there any statistics on how many people file a Form 4868, the 6-month
extension of time to file? Since 2006, no reason is needed and it's granted
automatically, but this wasn't initially well known, so I'd expect usage of it
to be slowly increasing as word gets around. But I haven't found any published
numbers.

~~~
bitexploder
You still have to pay any taxes owed at the time you file the form. That may
not count as "filed", though.

~~~
r00fus
True, but if you want to maximize a refund without a re-filing, this might be
one way people justify the decision.

------
AnimalMuppet
A bit off topic, but I'm going to rant here anyway.

I filed using the Free Fillable Forms. They got rejected with an XML
validation error. OK, I'm a programmer, I can (and did) figure it out from
that. But most people aren't. Imagine that your grandmother is filing her
taxes, and gets an XML validation error. What is an XML validation error going
to mean to her?

Now, they've got a handy Web tool that you can paste the error message in, and
it will tell you what's wrong. But why should you have to? When they email you
that your submission failed, why don't _they_ run the error message through
that tool, and mail you the results?

~~~
jnetterf
Free Fillable Forms is made by Intuit. If you look at the network tab in your
browser's developer tools, you will see that it makes requests to Inuit APIs.

They have an incentive to make the service as terrible as possible while still
technically being usable.

I believe we'll be stuck with this mess so long as the IRS partners with the
Free File Alliance.

~~~
BackODaEnvelope
Well, if they're Inuit APIs, I can see why there might be hangups. Something's
bound to go wrong between here and the Arctic regions.

:)

------
gardianz
It could be because the deadline was the 18th this year.

~~~
InclinedPlane
They were due on the 18th last year as well.

~~~
paulddraper
But not on Easter weekend

------
thrillgore
Out of the people returning, do we know how many fall under the income
requirements? Is it possible to ascertain those who aren't paying taxes out of
protest?

------
codewithcheese
So the national debt is about 70x the annual tax revenue?

~~~
geofft
US individual income taxes are about $1.8T a year (the $250B number in the
link is refunds). There's also about $1.2T in payroll taxes paid by employers,
$500B in corporate taxes, and a few smaller things like tariffs and interest,
etc., adding up to a little over $3.5T total revenue per year.

The current gross national debt is just shy of $20T. So, that's about 6x the
annual government revenue.

In theory, national debt is "good debt" like a home mortgage, and having a
home mortgage worth about 6x your salary seems pretty healthy.

~~~
cwkoss
Do you know of any good articles explaining the concept of 'good debt'?

I understand the position that govt taking debt out if the funds can increase
economic growth->more tax revenue. However, this concept seems to break down
when debt is carried over year to year and used to pay interest expense on
other debts.

~~~
kcanini
If you can borrow money at X% and put it towards a productive use that
generates Y% returns, then it is worthwhile to do so when X < Y. The
government can currently borrow money at around 1-3% interest [0], depending
on the length of the term.

Presumably, the return you can generate from borrowed money diminishes as you
borrow more money, so "good debt" is some amount of money that you have
borrowed that allows you to be more productive and pays for its own interest,
in a sense. But borrowing even more than that would start to become less
useful, and drag down your overall return.

[0] [https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-
bon...](https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us)

------
delecti
Hm, I wonder if that implies that more people waited closer to the final
deadline this year?

~~~
kesselvon
Due tomorrow, do tomorrow.

A lot of people wait till the final deadline since e-filing is so easy. Or at
least that's how I tend to do it.

~~~
leggomylibro
That's what I thought, until the IRS needed a credit card last 4 digits and
phone number to confirm my identity, and said that my phone company couldn't
verify my identity...?

What an awful system. I probably wound up a day late with the postage because
of that, but those assholes are lucky I filed at all. I was about ready to
just throw my 1040 in the trash chute and give up my rebate as a lost cause.
My time is worth more than this antiquated horseshit, and if I've learned
anything from my grandpop it's that audits don't mean shit if you just keep
ignoring them.

So, there's your procrastinator's attitude in a nutshell I guess.

~~~
wfunction
You can ignore audits?

~~~
leggomylibro
Sure. If you aren't self-employed, your employer already pays your taxes and
you're likely owed money by the IRS. It's your choice if you don't want to
collect it.

If you're self-employed and not reporting income...well, that's another story.
But this is terrible advice that you should definitely ignore, anyways.

~~~
wfunction
I didn't ask if you can avoid filing taxes or collecting the money you're
owed; I asked if you can ignore audits, since the claim was the latter.

~~~
leggomylibro
Right, and it really depends on how serious they are. If they think you owe a
lot of money, then no, you cannot ignore them. If they think you're just an
asshole who can't be arsed to deal with them or is not capable of doing so,
they really aren't going to do anything.

Like I said, my grandfather owns a business and hasn't filed in decades. It
caused my Uncle some serious consternation when he took the reigns, but he
never faced any consequences in the form of being held in contempt, asset
seizure, etc. Just some nastygrams every now and again.

But again, this is awful advice; I was mostly being facetious. You should not
just outright ignore your taxes, you should at least make a desultory effort
to get SOMETHING in. But damned if I'm going to bother pulling together any
more forms than are in arms/web's reach, or mail in anything more than the
bare minimum.

------
bekimdisha
They will be down 25% next year I imagine ...

~~~
cmdrfred
I'll take that bet.

------
Will_Do
This makes sense because the last day last year to file on time was the 14th
or 15th whereas this year it was 17th.

Returns will probably be higher this year once you account for that last
weekend + Monday.

~~~
InclinedPlane
Incorrect, April 18th was the last day to file in 2016 as well.

