
Chinese Online Retailer Developing One-Ton Delivery Drones - rbanffy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-22/chinese-online-retailer-developing-one-ton-delivery-drones?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
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danblick
I doubt these would be multi-rotors as opposed to helicopters or planes. If
you read a little about "actuator disk theory" it shows that small rotors are
much less efficient than large ones, and if you're lifting heavy weights that
becomes even more important.

[http://web.mit.edu/16.unified/www/FALL/thermodynamics/notes/...](http://web.mit.edu/16.unified/www/FALL/thermodynamics/notes/node86.html)

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contingencies
I visited a military-civil integration expo in Beijing a couple of months ago,
and most of it was massive drones with weaponry mounted. The Chinese companies
present told me it is already common to use their existing multi-100 kilogram
load capable drones to distribute agricultural chemicals, and the whole
military market was just a sort of publicity stunt / maybe-what-if for them.

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Overtonwindow
Why does this bring to mind scenes from the opening of Terminator 2?

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fooker
AKA helicopters?

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rwmj
... without pilots, and presumably also without many of the safety features
that go with aircraft that carry humans. I wonder what will happen the first
time one of these falls out of the air on to something.

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mtgx
And who will be liable? The drone manufacturer or the shipping company? Or no
one?

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maxerickson
In most places the operator will be liable.

Not "operator" in the sense of the person giving it commands, but the entity
that ultimately decides where and why it flies.

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rl3
Sounds like the intended use isn't last-mile, but it could be in the case of
larger items.

However, I'm not sure how people would react once they start being crushed by
large household appliances falling from the sky. Nothing's perfect I suppose.

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danblick
If you're talking about small (last-mile) deliveries, there's a big difference
between manned and unmanned delivery: if your package is ~1 kg and your pilot
is ~80 kg then an unmanned craft can be ~1% the size of a manned one. On the
other hand if it's ~900 kg vs ~980 kg then it seems to make less of a
difference whether or not there's a pilot.

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smlacy
I think it's not so much the weight of the pilot but how requiring a pilot
effects the upper bound of 'delivers per day'.

\- Pilot can't reasonably fly more than 8-10hrs a day Need at least 3 pilots
per aircraft for 24/7 delivery support.

\- Pilot needs a salary, drastically increasing the OpEx of each drone (vs.
"just maintenance and electricity")

\- Ability to train & hire pilots limits total fleet size.

\- Pilots require insurance, which is likely a nontrivial amount. (depending
on regulatory environment, of course)

Imagine being able to build 1,000 drones in a factory. Can you as easily hire,
train & pay 3,000 pilots? Probably not.

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nradov
No sizable aircraft can operate around the clock. They would need periodic
down time for labor intensive inspections and maintenance. Look at the
mission-capable rates, operating cycles, and maintenance schedules for medium-
sized military drones today. There are no magic solutions here.

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touristtam
No but presumably in a cost oriented operation, you could problably get 2
vehicle to work in tandem vs 1 vehicle and 2-3 human pilots.

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leggomylibro
It seems like a better solution would be to have multi-ton zeppelin-carriers
which hold a host of smaller drones that can carry packages of various sizes.
You float from city to city, moor the zeppelin, and your delivery fleet swarms
out to deliver the packages. It would also probably travel slowly enough to
service flyover counties by...well, flying over them.

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the8472
Iirc amazon already filed a patent for that.

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ShannonAlther
JD.com thinks this will be an efficient way of maintaining a transportation
network in the future. I'm not convinced, mostly because it seems like the
fuel cost would be much greater. Feel free to let me know if I'm wrong though.

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usrusr
Depends on density. Bush pilots are cost effective vs roads in some areas,
bush UAV could be one pilot cheaper. Much like mobile connectivity turned out
to be cheaper than landlines in places with weak existing infrastructure.

An actual cargo cult would be able to maintain the necessary infrastructure on
one end of the trip.

PS: cargo UAV cults might be how post-scarcity would look like if wealth keeps
concentrating in a few high tech hotspots.

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contingencies
_PS: cargo UAV cults might be how post-scarcity would look like if wealth
keeps concentrating in a few high tech hotspots_

+1 insightful ;)

What would be the motivation for resupplying the remote communities? Nominal
park-ranger duties performed on the wild tundra / remote islands?

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usrusr
Charity. Because without it, end-game wealth concentration could never be
considered post-scarcity. (I don't believe in post scarcity)

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strin
AKA shipped by air?

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conmarap
Of course its the Chinese.

"Delivery drones? Hah! Cute.."

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coldcode
That's fine until it falls on your house. Same issue with flying cars.

