
A Statistician Reviews “The Book of Why” by Judea Pearl and Dana Mackenzie - joe_the_user
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/01/08/book-pearl-mackenzie/#comment-947061
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joe_the_user
My cruder understanding of how the question of how casualty relates to
probability:

In a simple, deterministic world, chains of cause can seem clear. If we know X
will definitely happen if and only if Y and Z happen, we can call Y & Z
immediate causes and build chains of cause if Y & Z have similar immediate
cause. Though even here there can arguments - suppose Y & Z are "just markers"
etc - the thing is how to build your chain of causation is relatively.

But X occurs with a complex probability function, Y & Z make X more likely but
lots of other things might do so also. Now how should we do the chain?

