
“It'll all be over by Christmas” (No it won't) - 9nGQluzmnq3M
http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2020/04/itll-all-be-over-by-christmas.html
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agd
Not sure why this is upvoted, it looks like a standard internet rant with
little factual basis or analysis. No mention of contact tracing, testing, and
apps/surveillance as the most likely exit strategy for both US and UK.

~~~
hanoz
Maybe it's being upvoted because it rings true to a lot of people, and raises
a prospect not being talked about much elsewhere. Personally I think it
glosses over potentially the worst of what's to come: next winter.

I don't take much solace in a surveillance state being a way out of this
either, besides, what use is contact tracing for those commuting on crowded
underground trains every day?

~~~
maxerickson
It's likely that cloth masks reduce transmission in situations like trains (by
stopping infectious people from blowing droplets everywhere).

Contact tracing works by pulling sick people out of circulation. So when you
stop a sick person from getting on the train, you eliminate the potential
infections that would have come with their journey.

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cableshaft
"It'll be over by Christmas" was a popular prediction when World War I started
(some even thought it would be over in days) that was stunningly wrong.

While I thought this was about COVID-19 before clicking, I assumed it would
use WWI as an example of how experts and those in charge could get predictions
of how long something would take really, really wrong, and was kind of
disappointed to not see any mention of that in there.

[https://www.historynet.com/over-by-
christmas.htm](https://www.historynet.com/over-by-christmas.htm)

~~~
watwut
Through, at minimum German military leaders and related politicians did
predicted longer war. They did not predicted how exactly long and how exactly
bad it will be, but they knew it will be long and will not be over by
Christmas. (Source: I got this from Pandora’s Box: A History of the First
World War book which seems to be praised by historians)

"Experts and those in charge" and "public journalists and propaganda" are two
distinct categories of people.

~~~
gullyfur
> at minimum German military leaders and related politicians did predicted
> longer war

Hmm, perhaps this was an unpopular opinion, because the entire German military
strategy depended on an extraordinarily fast decisive victory in France [1].
Of course, there were contingencies based on whether Russia was allied with
France, or netural. Once the Schlieffen Plan fell apart, then the Germans knew
it would be a long two-front war, but they didn't seem to suspect that in the
first several weeks, from what I've read

Though I'll have to check out the book you mentioned, Pandora's Box.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schlieffen_Plan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schlieffen_Plan)

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crispinb
> Have I missed anything out?

The extreme differences in competencies between nations in dealing with the
crisis, with the US near the bottom of the pack. Which brings up the
possibility that the US's decline, apparent to much of the world even before
the witless 45's comic ascendancy, accelerates apace, with SARS-CoV-2
delivering the coup de grace.

~~~
itronitron
The current scenario in the US shows both the federal government's failure of
responsibility and failure of imagination. I don't expect there to be a second
shutdown despite the likelihood of a larger second wave. While that will
probably result in more deaths sooner I don't think that is something Trump or
his supporters care much about.

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ceilingcorner
I don't know who this author is, but the snarky, irritating writing style
makes me not want to read anything he/she has to say.

~~~
barrenko
Should people who write be sheepish and meek? I don't understand the
"arrogance" argument.

~~~
ceilingcorner
I said _snarky_ and _irritating_ , not arrogant. Here are some examples of
what I mean:

\- _(I predict the USA will merrily go its own way and faceplant, unless y
'all elect a competent next POTUS. Or VPOTUS, insofar as Biden appears to be
past it and Pence is incompetent at anything but arse-licking.)_

\- _Extra lulz in the UK: the Prime Minister is out of hospital but hasn 't
been seen since Monday—my guess is he's hors de combat for at least another
two weeks. A quarter of the senior ministers of state are rabid objectivists
who actively hate the poor and want them to die, and a majority of the cabinet
are still going full steam ahead for a no-deal Brexit transition on January
31st, at which point the UK economy shrinks another 8% overnight._

Really unnecessary. Maybe there are interesting thoughts in this blog post,
but adding stuff like this doesn't lend me to take you seriously.

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everyone
I find his style of writing quite elegant. He gets his point across, vividly,
in a highly terse way.

Though I agree this article is BS. Where are your references man? where is
your data?

~~~
ceilingcorner
In no way whatsoever is that writing style elegant, terse, or vivid. It’s an
angry puerile rant.

~~~
everyone
?? Those two things are not mutually exclusive.

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rejschaap
> not $1200 for 10 weeks: more like $1200 per week

I agree $1200 for 10 weeks is a bit low, but $1200 per week is really high and
maybe a bit excessive? Can somebody get Andrew Yang back on the case?

~~~
ummwhat
Once you cancel out commuting costs, assume rent/mortgage debts have been
erased for the relevant time period, and focus only on food, that $1200 could
buy you 8 weeks. It works out to a bit over $20 a day. It wouldnt be
comfortable living. In fact it would suck having cereal, pasta, and canned
whatever 3 times a day. But you would survive. And if you want comfort you can
always dip into your savings.

This is all assuming the crisis is managed well enough that it actually ends
in 8 weeks. Part of that is communicating the plan so people don't think they
are choosing a risk of sickness over certain famine. Someone like Newsom or
Cuomo needs to do a presser addressing how they are making sure the lockdown
does not ruin you if you're living paycheck to paycheck.

~~~
danaris
It also assumes that commuting costs and rent are not in the picture, which,
for many of those who need it the most, at least one still is.

It further assumes that a) enough cereal, pasta, and canned whatever is
available to purchase _for everyone_ and b) that everyone is easily able to
plan for exactly enough of all of it to get them through.

I do not find any of these assumptions to be terribly credible.

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barrenko
It's insane, but I also see UBI as a possibility.

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Aeolun
It will be interesting to see how this goes, but I expect the next waves (if
they are there at all), to be a lot longer and spread out.

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antman
A very good approach, need to return to this post in a few months.

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LargoLasskhyfv
Meanwhile on _XK-Masada_...

