
Why Republican Voters Decided on Trump – Nate Silver - pgrote
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-republican-voters-decided-on-trump/
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devopsproject
The rise of Trump and Sanders, much to the chagrin of "experts", is succinctly
explained here: [http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/29/opinion/if-not-trump-
what....](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/29/opinion/if-not-trump-
what.html?_r=0)

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lintiness
"Usually a party picks a nominee who is both reasonably “electable” and who
upholds its traditional policy positions. In Trump, the Republican Party may
have a candidate who fails on both counts."

this kid throws around a lot of loose garbage language for a statistician. he
clearly let his emotions and feelings distract his analysis (and still is).
trump is electable -- for sure -- and this presidential race is going to be
very very interesting.

~~~
eugeneionesco
Huge bias against Trump from Silver

[http://imgur.com/r/The_Donald/LwZ9JwW](http://imgur.com/r/The_Donald/LwZ9JwW)

~~~
smt88
That's true, and the writers of FiveThirtyEight publish a weekly transcript of
a Slack chat in which they discuss those things.

Some of the writers were very optimistic about Trump, and Nate was notably not
optimistic.

It's impossible for journalists to be unbiased or to be right all the time.
Good journalists will "show their work" (the data they're basing their
analysis on), explain areas where they _could_ be wrong, admit their biases,
and (ultimately) admit when they're wrong. Silver has done all these things.

Maybe you don't like his site or his writing, but "unbiased" journalism is a
fantasy peddled by low-brow entertainment channels like CNN. When people study
facts, they form conclusions, and we should want to know both the facts and
the conclusions.

It's better to know the biases and be able to take the work with a grain of
salt.

~~~
eugeneionesco
>It's impossible for journalists to be unbiased or to be right all the time.

Of course, the thing is Silver is 100% wrong in all his predictions regarding
Trump.

You can't take him seriously when he talks about him.

~~~
dinkumthinkum
I think a big problem is that intelligent people tend to be naive about the
level of sophistication of voters.

~~~
eugeneionesco
Those poor and stupid people amirite?

