

SpaceX founder Elon Musk wants to start a Mars colony - ytNumbers
http://www.slashgear.com/spacex-founder-elon-musk-wants-to-start-a-mars-colony-26258279/

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a-priori
I have full confidence that, given enough time, Musk can create the technology
necessary to ferry people to Mars and establish a colony. That's an
engineering problem, and as we've seen he's very adept at building companies
to tackle those.

But the key problem then becomes: why would people want to spend $0.5m to deal
with all the inconveniences of being a first settler on Mars? It takes months
to go there, and once you're there you'll be stuck in cramped quarters with
only basic amenities. Plus the health risks of radiation and equipment
failure.

So people need to be compensated for these inconveniences and risks with a
salary greater than they could make on Earth. This means that you need a
functioning Martian economy. People won't go en masse without it making
economic sense for them to do so. But in order for that to develop, the colony
needs to produce something of value.

To draw an analogy to the European settlement of North America, the first
permanent European settlements were port towns for exporting resources like
furs and minerals back to Europe. In this way, the North American economy was
bootstrapped off of the European economy.

The same thing needs to happen here where we need to bootstrap a Martian
economy off of the Earth economy by exporting resources back to Earth.

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jhuckestein
I don't see that as a problem. If I'm not otherwise committed when we have a
colony, I'd be the first to go.

After that, OTHER PEOPLE will find ways to monetize. People went to America
because it was an untouched land of opportunity, not because somebody told
them they could export furs. It was clear that there was opportunity but
unclear what it might be.

I can think of many things that could make your rich on Mars. Any kind of
sports/competitions in reduced gravity, space hotels/amenities (things that
makes space more like home) and indeed mining of raw materials. And these are
just the first things that come to mind. There's probably better ideas.

~~~
yock
The early European-American settlers still had a basic expectation of the
availability of natural resources. In the case of Mars, natural resources
aren't simply an unknown, we know Mars to be a desolate place largely free of
any valuable resources. This knowledge may change with boots on the ground,
but the risk to those explorers far, far exceeds the risk taken by those early
colinists.

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drd
Normally, settlers leave their home land because they don’t have anything to
lose. So they look for new things that may improve their lives; just look at
the history. Why on earth, rich people want to go to Mars? They cannot drive a
Ferrari; they cannot build a mansion either. Just to prove that they are cool
people?

Paul Graham said: “Live in the future, and then build what's missing.”
Probably Elon Mask is trying to apply this rule. Well, at least I don’t get
it.

~~~
JoeAltmaier
Rich people are winning a game. Its a way of making your life meaningful. Its
not a very good way.

Making a future for mankind - that's a very cool game. I'd go in a heartbeat,
and I'm doing fine in America (more than fine - been a startup founder many
times, money in the bank).

~~~
drd
So, knowing that there may be no return, you are ready to leave everything and
start over in an extremely unknown environment. The support may be a few years
away. You leave your family, friends, and relatives for making a meaningful
life? Doesn’t this look more like suicide?

I think there are many much better ways to make a future for mankind. Just
look at the children in Africa. Technology innovations can do a lot on earth.

~~~
JoeAltmaier
If that's a sincere comment I expect you're already in Africa helping the
children. Else, maybe you are doing something for yourself or your family.
This is more like that.

Of course I'd not go if it was suicide. But technology can overcome lots of
hurdles. Colonists in the past had the same decision to make, and here we are
in America to prove it.

I just know that every photograph I see of Mars landscape, I feel a rush, I
want to run to that far horizon and see what's there.

~~~
drd
No, unfortunately I am not helping those children. I am not rich. However, I
agree with you on Mars photos. They are fascinating.

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throwaway5426
People on HN are for the most part in awe of this vision(colonizing Mars). I
find interesting to confront this vision with a mystic's opinion. Why? Because
both scientists and mystics seek to acquire knowledge, although the path
undertaken is of a significantly different nature. One seeks outside himself,
the other inside.

Here is a rephrasing of a quote of Meher Baba (a respected spiritual master):
What will man find on mars? nothing but himself. (He said it about the moon)

I am genuinely curious to know the opinion of the HN crowd about the
fundamental disagreement between these two visions?

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mburns
That is a bunch of unhelpful babbling.

The answer to "why?" is just as easily given: "why not?" No more need be
justified.

>Because both scientists and mystics seek to acquire knowledge, although the
path undertaken is of a significantly different nature.

One has a testable process that can be shared with other people, the other
doesn't. You can call your search for truth whatever you like, but the process
makes all the difference. Alchemists sought truth, etc, etc.

>"What will man find on mars? nothing but himself."

So what? How should that at all influence whether it happens or not? It is
like saying "Wherever you go, that is where you are". True, but unhelpful. You
can use it to justify or not justify undertaking whatever action, depending on
how you choose to interpret it at the time. "Finding myself" (on whatever
level you choose to define 'Find' and 'myself') on Mars sounds awesome, not
disappointing.

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yohann305
PEOPLE STOP trying to find good reasons whether we should colonize Mars or
not. Interplanetary colonization will happen. It's just a matter of time. Now
we have a visionary man named Elon Musk that has proven himself by realizing
the impossible not once not twice but 4 times. Let's all support him and
contribute our 2 cents to make it happen in our times. AMEN

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agracey
Where do I sign up? I can take out a loan

~~~
jlgreco
I rather doubt any bank would lend you money if you intend to use it to put
yourself on Mars. _Maybe_ unless they were satisfied the risks were low enough
and confident that you would continue to have an income of money that could be
used to pay back an Earth debt. Even then there is the issue of collateral.

I suspect Mars will be only for those with a total net worth of at least 500k
(selling all of your Earth assets to get there probably makes sense).

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truncate
Isn't Mars atmosphere and climate unsuitable for humans? I don't think
technology to "hack atmosphere" will be ready in this century.

~~~
Luyt
Mars atmosphere is also very sparse, almost like a vacuum.

 _"The highest atmospheric density on Mars is equal to the density found 35 km
above the Earth's surface."_ source:
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars#Atmosphere>

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mtgx
We're probably 5-10 years away until they can even send a rocket to Mars with
humans, and another 10 years until the idea of a colony can begin to take
shape. It's all very exciting, though.

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fastball
So is the first mass transit system of this Mars colony going to be a
hyperloop?

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VMG
I wonder if he is a believer in the technological singularity.

~~~
jlgreco
It seems to me there are two types of people interested in the colonizing of
Mars. Those who think it will happen eventually, and those who want to _make_
it happen. Elon seems to be firmly in the "I want to _make_ things happen
camp." With his involvement in Telsa, SolarCity, and the rumors of the
hyperloop thing, it seems like he applies this attitude towards just about
everything he is interested in, no matter how outlandish.

I suspect he probably doesn't spend to much time thinking about what would be
cool if other people did something. He may consider it idly once in a while,
but I would be surprised if he considers it seriously while also not involving
himself in it.

Obviously you'd have to ask him though.

~~~
enraged_camel
>> _It seems to me there are two types of people interested in the colonizing
of Mars. Those who think it will happen eventually, and those who want to make
it happen._

The funny thing is that colonization of Mars is not something that will happen
without the latter group. There is currently no economic sense in going there,
which bars it from happening on its own.

~~~
jlgreco
Quite right. The precursors to runaway technological advance (or other
meanings of "technological singularity") could definitely make economic sense,
meaning that a singularity could occur without the same sort of semi-
irrational drive and vision that the " _make_ it happen" people provide. While
those people are necessary for Mars colonization, they may not be for a
technological singularity.

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mtgx
Here's an idea. Elon Musk says he'll have the re-usable rocket ready in the
next few years, and he says it will be a huge thing for the space industry,
and what will basically make travelling to Mars possible. Is anyone else even
anywhere near close to that? Probably not. So what if he does something crazy
such as open sourcing the design of his re-usable rocket, with the condition
that anyone who uses pieces or the entirety of the design has to give back the
improvements as well. I'm not sure what effect this would have on his company.
It might push him to focus even more on execution, but I think it would also
greatly accelerate this space flight race.

The good thing about this is that any future rocket or spacecrafts that would
use at least some of the ideas in that design, would be forced to open source
everything else. So in a way, he could create something like the Linux kernel
of the space world, and we could see a lot of innovation coming out of that,
all of which would have to be turned back into open source, and help future,
greater innovations appear even faster.

~~~
jlgreco
US export restrictions on rocket technology would likely be an issue.

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neurotech1
It would be possible to create a "ITAR Free" design. Also, there are a number
of open source projects that are using NDA'd technical information. The other
option is that each country have their own "group" and obtain export licenses
between member groups. This is basically how the JSF program operates, each
member country has the export clearance needed.

<http://www.copenhagensuborbitals.com/> Copenhagen Suborbitals are probably
the closest to actually having an open source spacecraft. They do have this on
their website; "We intend to share all our techninal information as much as
possible, within the laws of EU-export control."

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BklynJay
What could possibly go wrong?

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jlgreco
Worse case scenario: we get lots of people up there, then lose the ability to
resupply them. They, not yet being self-sufficient, all die slowly.

I think everyone who would consider going understands the risks.

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notdrunkatall
Elon Musk is my hero.

