

Economic projections inadvertently posted to the public - randomname2
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150724a.htm

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brandonmenc
Ugh, "glitch."

This trend of publicly addressing every tech mishap as a "glitch" needs to
end.

It's like reporting every death as "because of boo boo."

Edit: the linked press release does not say glitch, and the word "glitch" has
been removed from the title of this story. But, it's still a problem in
general.

~~~
daveloyall
Would you support redefining _glitch_ to be specifically only the class of
errors that "cosmic ray event" falls under?

~~~
stcredzero
Has someone calculated the rate of data decay due to cosmic ray events?

~~~
astazangasta
Some facts here: [http://ccm.net/faq/1678-myth-cosmic-rays-cause-
errors](http://ccm.net/faq/1678-myth-cosmic-rays-cause-errors)

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roymurdock
Nothing too interesting to see in the leaked data, just internal forecasts on
GDP, unemployment, & interest rates.

The only substantial information the Fed could accidentally divulge today
would be exactly when they plan to raise the benchmark interest rate (The
Federal Funds Rate), which has been near 0 for the past 6 years. It was
originally scheduled to be raised when unemployment fell below 6.5% (happened
in April 2013). Otherwise, unless the Fed has some other crazy plan (another
wave of QE) there's not much more that they have control of over the moment.

~~~
tosseraccount
Not really. This is the official FED forecast. They base interest rates
decisions on this. (Interest rates for some people, not your credit cards)

This could give people front running the actual rate change an advantage.

Lot's of Wall Street is based on insider info. Of course, they market
themselves as "insightful, active" traders.

~~~
roymurdock
_"...a set of illustrative economic projections based only on publicly
available information...The projections that were inadvertently released are
staff projections that do not incorporate policymakers' views, including their
views on monetary policy. Policymaker views were set forth in the monetary
policy statement and projection materials released on June 17 and in the
minutes of the June FOMC meeting and the Summary of Economic Projections
published on July 8."_

I mentioned that the Fed failed to raise the FRR after hitting their
unemployment metric to illustrate the lack of credibility/hard action the Fed
takes on forecasts. They are always reassessing the economic situation, and
their announcements/forecasts are specifically engineered to give away as
little guidance as possible, so as not to jolt markets.

So until they make a major announcement of affirmative action - 'we are
raising rates _now_ ', rather than the boilerplate template they've been using
for the past 6 years [1], there's really no reason for investors to take
action.

[1] 6/17/15 Monetary Policy Statement - To support continued progress toward
maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its
view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate
remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range,
the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its
objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will
take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor
market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation
expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The
Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range
for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor
market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2
percent objective over the medium term.

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chollida1
The scare quotes are probably unnecessary.

I'm guessing people would jump to the conclusion that it was done intentionaly
to aid HFT firms.

1) The leaked files weren't released to the typical location for computerized
feeds that funds automatically consume

2) The leaked files weren't in an easy to consume format for machines to read

3) __This is my opinion __There wasn 't too much that was actionable that was
released.

Nothing to see here, people posting files to websites by accident happens all
the time. Heck google released their earnings 42 minutes early one day when
the markets were still open.

~~~
maxlybbert
> Nothing to see here, people posting files to websites by accident happens
> all the time.

What is interesting is that the Federal Reserve did not tell everybody "that
is confidential information and you should delete it from your computer," but
instead said "since we already made this public, we might as well make it easy
to find." That is a very admirable response.

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daveloyall
> _The data subdirectory contains a database named LONGBASE, which is in
> EViews format and contains actual observations on all FRB /US variables from
> 1968q1 to 2015q1 and projected observations on all variables from 2015q2 to
> roughly 100 years in the future._

Included. 4.5 megabytes. 2.7 compressed.

> _This document lists the roughly 375 equations in the FRB /US macroeconomic
> model._

Included.

------
daveloyall
> _Another file contained computer code used to generate a table displaying
> staff economic projections._

Link, please?

~~~
daveloyall
Apparently
[http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/frbus/files/frbus_...](http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/frbus/files/frbus_package.zip)
(thanks @ihsw!)

Lines 48 through 57 of example1.prg:

    
    
        ' Turn off zero bound and policy thresholds; hold policymaker's
        ' perceived equilibrium real interest rate constant
          smpl @all
          dmptrsh = 0
          rffmin = -9999
          drstar = 0
        
        ' Set fiscal policy
          smpl @all
          call set_fp("dfpsrp")

~~~
tosseraccount
What language is this?

~~~
fennecfoxen
Google says that PRG files belong to FoxPro (or tools with similar lineage).

------
hartator
EURUSD did go up a bit since the statement (~ 2 hours ago), nothing
substantial though.

Ref:
[http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EURUSD=X](http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EURUSD=X)

------
mindcrime
I love how people always argue that "The Fed isn't a government agency" but
yet they have a .gov domain. Hmmm... I think they are (or should be treated
as) a government agency, and as they aren't doing anything defense related,
they should be totally transparent. IOW, there shouldn't be any confidential /
private information to be accidentally leaked in the first place.

I mean, if there's stuff they are holding back from the public, you have to
ask "Who _does_ have access to it?" And if you believe the answer is "nobody
but the Fed board and staff" then I think you are very gullible. I'd bet a
dollar to a doughnut that certain well-connected, influential (and rich)
insiders are getting access to any "private/confidential" stuff they're
working on.

~~~
fennecfoxen
[http://federalreserve.gov](http://federalreserve.gov) is the website of the
"board of governors of the Federal Reserve System" (who are appointed by the
President). Individual Federal Reserve banks have websites like
[https://www.clevelandfed.org/](https://www.clevelandfed.org/) or
[http://www.newyorkfed.org/](http://www.newyorkfed.org/) or
[http://www.frbsf.org/](http://www.frbsf.org/)

~~~
mindcrime
Yeah I know. But I still stand by my assertion that in every _practical_
sense, the Fed should be treated as a govt. agency and should be pretty much
completely transparent.

~~~
roymurdock
How many government agencies can you name that are even moderately
transparent?

~~~
mindcrime
Very few, but what's your point? Do you think we should stop demanding and
fighting for transparency just because we don't have it now?

------
crapiola
anyone have a link to the leaked forecast?

~~~
ihsw
Here you go, straight from the horse's mouth.

[http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/frbus/files/frbus_...](http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/frbus/files/frbus_package.zip)

