

Ask HN: Will there be any Facebook killer in the near future? - abhishektwr

A friend of mine approached me with a nice social idea. I am technical person, I liked the idea and I genuinely believe it can be disruptive (but that just me). But then looking on the growth of Facebook and their armors I am bit skeptical about our ability to execute something this big especially when we have no history of execution. When we talked with others, we sounded so naive in fact a  laughing matter. Coming back to main question,<p>Will there be any Facebook killer/rival in the near future? (Assuming someone else in a MIT dorm or in a remote African safari is trying to come up with that).<p>If yes, How much important you think time of entry will be if they have to succeed? Do you think hype surrounding Facebook can kill some potential entrants due to poor adaptation?<p>As for as my tiny world is considered, I think no one actually seriously tried to challenge the Facebook not even Google or Twitter. Same goes for Google. Problem of scale is so big that it is near impossible to take on Google or Facebook.
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Skywing
I think the better question is, who really cares? Everyone is already using
Facebook for what Facebook excels at. It's like gasoline-powered cars, now.
There are too many people invested in Facebook, and using Facebook, for
something to come along and do the exact same thing that Facebook does, but in
a different way, and expect people to just move over to it.

A Facebook killer won't come in the form of something similar to Facebook,
it'll come in the form of something more time consuming and easier to waste
time on than Facebook. It'll be something that lets people do something that
they enjoy, and do it every hour or so with a different result. (here, i'm
referencing what I think most people do in FB, and that's just browse people's
pictures) It won't kill Facebook by being a better Facebook, it'll kill it by
attracting people's attention elsewhere.

~~~
abhishektwr
Interesting analogy and generalization, I never thought in that way. I think
that's true, people are always looking for interesting new ways to invest &
waster their time. And certainly a clone of Facebook can not take on Facebook
anyway.

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soulclap
I think your best chance is to build a community (or 'network') that is
focused on a certain niche or group of people though.

And I guess the whole 'scaling' aspect can be quite 'scary' when you look at
sites with millions of members such as Facebook but I'd say screw that for now
and just get started, by the time you really need to expand your
infrastructure, things (such as your team, capital and so on) will be
different anyhow. In order to avoid any downvotes: of course, keep scaling in
mind. But put the main focus on your ideas and the overall experience.

And regarding the demise of Facebook in general: hopefully. I really dislike
the corporateness and general lack of 'coolness' on Facebook. Myspace felt a
lot better and was tons more fun to me than Facebook, all technical and visual
shortcomings aside.

I can't imagine anyone 'feeling at home' on Facebook.

~~~
austinB
Good point regarding focusing on a niche. A niche is far easier to dominate
than the general population, allowing you to refine your concept and then
expand from there. Remember, FB didn't begin with 500 million members. It was
initially available solely for Harvard students, then university students, and
finally anyone.

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aDemoUzer
After reading the comments, I am more for that there will be another site that
will allow users to waste time. It is not just either a site kills Facebook or
it does not. I don't think hype around Facebook can kill entrants. If the
entrants dies, it will be because of their own poor execution or just having
something that users don't need. The fact is, if you create something that
users want and you can spread the word about it, you will get the users,
regardless of how big other websites are. You do have to understand why
Facebook is so popular. They have made themselves a platform, which attracts
developers and gives them a way to keep the website fresh and have something
new over the years. Emergence of Facebook does not makes it Google killer,
both companies have their own problems that they are trying to solve. There is
room for co-existence.

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eth
I'm not sure that a "Facebook Killer" will emerge in the near future. Remember
that Facebook has somewhere around 600 million members.

While they may not kill Facebook or even amass half as many members in the
next two years, I would definitely say that I can see Tumblr and Lockerz
experiencing explosive growth over the next 12-18 months. This growth is
significant because it is all targeted at the 13-25 crowd - one of the most
lucrative and influential demographics.

So, Facebook is huge and still growing (albeit mostly in the 35+ age group)
but the young crowd is spending time in places where they can consume (media,
interaction, discovery) all in one place rather than broadcast (status
updates, chats, messages).

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knowsnothing613
yes. Tumblr will overtake facebook in 3 years.

~~~
antidaily
nah. different beasts entirely. tumblr doesnt know who I went to college with.

~~~
knowsnothing613
you're in the wrong demographic. remember, when you were in college, and on
facebook. Then your parents, and 'old' people started to join.

Sorry to say this, but you're considered the old person for the tumblr user
base. Alot. Alot of 12-17 yr olds are on it. If you're in junior high, or high
school all your friends are on it. And they will pull ppl in, like facebook
did.

facebook has become the new email. And just as stale.

~~~
keiferski
Email isn't stale. It's a default. Facebook is on its way to being the same.

Tumblr? Not a definite need there.

