
Is Microsoft Headed Towards Extinction? - ronnier
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/vox/is-microsoft-heading-the-way-of-the-dinosaur/article1630885/
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manuellemos
This article is just wishful thinking of Microsoft haters.

Microsoft does need to be so much innovative as long as users buy Windows and
Office. Windows 7 has been selling at 15 million copies a month. This just
proves that whether or not Microsoft is innovative these days, Windows and
Office sells like hot-cakes.

Same goes with IBM and their mainframes. A lot of IBM haters kept predicting
that IBM and mainframes would be extinct just because they are not innovative,
but the reality is that it does not matter. What matters is that they have
millions of loyal customers that other companies envy.

~~~
megablast
Well, this is the problem. Microsoft can fritter away billions of dollars on
these projects that do not have to have a return. This is why there stock
price has not been doing well, because people do not see them producing any
more winners.

There attempts in search reek of desperation, paying people to use Bing. Xbox
is just now starting to pay off. They have lost mobile. They are losing market
share in their webserver and development tools.

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tvon
> _The stark truth is that Microsoft has rarely invented anything that
> mattered._

That doesn't matter, what matters is that lately their execution has sucked.

~~~
troygoode
I think this is largely true, but Microsoft is large enough that it really
isn't a single entity - the various divisions are outputting different levels
of suckiness/goodness. For instance:

DevDiv is on a pretty good roll right now. It is still many steps behind other
communities in a lot of regards (and likely always will be), but LINQ was a
huge milestone in 3.5 and the new dynamic integration options of 4.0 is a big
step forward for a mainstream static language.

The XBox division continues to do cool things. Last year's dashboard revamp
was a huge face lift for the system, XBox Live may continue to be a wretched
hive of scum and villainy but it is a well-implemented one. I'm skeptical of
Kinect's value for the type of games I play, but I believe it'll be very
popular amongst casuals and should be a compelling addition to the XBox's UI
for non-gaming apps. Oh, and the "instant-on" 1080p streaming of pay-per-view
and Netflix movies is really sick and feels like living in the future.

The Zune may always be an niche choice, but its the best option if you'd
prefer to spend $15/mo for "unlimited" music rather than purchasing music at
$10/album. Which situation makes the most sense will vary from person to
person. Last year Zune started handing out 10 song credits per month to each
subscriber as well, which helped take the sting out of the normal arguments
against subscription services.

I don't particularly follow the Windows Phone 7 / Kin stuff, but it seems
obvious they screwed up royally on at least half that proposition (and I don't
expect big things out of the Win Phone 7 half either).

Windows 7 has been very well perceived, though it still lags behind Linux/OSX.

Office 2007 was a pretty good redesign of the suite, but Office 2010 doesn't
seem to have raised the bar much. I don't think OpenOffice will ever replace
MS Office, rather Office will continue to lead until GoogleDocs is fully ready
to take over (its getting closer & closer every day and I don't think MS's new
web-based Office will be able to compete).

In retrospect, after reviewing what I've written so far, my opinion seems to
be that Microsoft's offerrings haven't been that bad execution-wise lately,
but that most are plagued by the fact that they are "also rans": decent
products that have some strong merits, but offer no compelling reason to leave
the market leader or community favorite.

~~~
Niten
> Windows 7 has been very well perceived, though it still lags behind
> Linux/OSX.

Lags behind in what sense?

~~~
troygoode
Background: I'm a .NET developer in a Windows shop by day, and run OSX on most
of my computers at home (except my primary desktop which is Win7 for gaming
and .NET development).

My major pain points on Windows that lag behind Linux/OSX:

\- Scripting. PowerShell is getting there, and is fine for system related
tasks, but it remains a second-class citizen.

\- Application Installation. No apt-get; no simple dragging an app into the
Apps folder. Same for uninstallation.

\- Security. I don't hate UAC nearly as much as everyone else seems to, but
give me sudo any day. I'm also concerned by reports I've read of how easy it
is for malicious software to get around UAC.

\- Settings/Configuration. Control Panel is still a cluster fuck and every app
on my computer seems to have a different route to their custom config screen.

\- Startup. Yes I know about msconfig, but my wife certainly doesn't, nor does
my mother.

I don't hate Windows. I make my livelihood from it, use it all day with little
complaint (Win7 is my favorite Windows version since Win2000), and its clearly
the only real choice for PC gaming (I have like 3 games for my Macs via
Steam). That doesn't mean I am or should be blind to where it falls behind its
competitors.

For what its worth, I have the same feeling about .NET: I use it, love it,
make money off it, have fun with it; but I'm not blind to its faults.

------
sen
Toyota didn't invent the wheel, are they dying now?

Apple didn't invent the phone, is the iPhone a flop and will Apple die next?

And MS hasn't made anything in the last few years that is worthy of
mentioning? What about Windows 7, love it or hate it, it's the fastest selling
OS in history.

Inventing something isn't a sign of success. Taking an idea, whether it has
already been invented or not, then creating the best (or at least the most
popular) iteration of that idea, is what matters. I'm no Microsoft fan-boy (I
use Linux, have an Android phone, although I do own and love my Xbox 360 to be
fair).. but even I can't deny Microsoft's ability to consistently churn out
some pretty amazing products (yes, and their fair share of flops too.. but no-
one is immune to that.. Apple Newton anyone?).

~~~
alanh
Those are bad examples that miss the point.

• Toyota brought hybrids to market.

• Apple elevated cellphones to a completely new level, inventing underlying
technology along the way.

I consider both to be bold, innovative moves. I think you are defining
"invention" far too narrowly. _Edit:_ Name a single completely new "invention"
from software industries. Nothing? Then stop being so pedantic.

~~~
sen
I'm talking about his statement that companies that don't "invent", don't
last.

Toyota didn't "invent" the Hybrid, if anything that's another case that
perfectly proves my point.. Toyota took an existing invention, the Hybrid car,
and created a brilliant marketable implementation of that pre-existing idea.

Apple didn't "invent" the touch screen, multi touch, the cell phone, or any of
the other stuff that makes the iPhone such a good phone. It just once again
took pre-existing ideas and created a brilliant marketable implementation of
the combined ideas into a product that has netted them billions of dollars.

------
alanh
“The first, the best, or the free.” New Microsoft products seem to be none of
the above lately, including the Zune, their phones, and their consoles (though
there, “best” is at least debatable).

Office and Windows are _effectively_ “first” because they have incredible
traction.

~~~
barryfandango
The Windows 7 Phone OS has been hyping up for a while now and won't be out for
till the holidays, so who knows, but it looks fantastic.

------
d0m
I've got friends that work there and they have so many great technologies and
products that they don't publish. I have no idea why but if you have time, go
look at microsoft research center.. I mean, what are they waiting ?!

------
pohl
I rarely have something positive to say about Microsoft. I was a customer
until the early 90s when I decided the Open Systems world was more appealing.
My disgust only increased over the years as it became well-nigh impossible to
navigate a Microsoft-free career path in the shadow of the behemoth.

Oddly, though, I found myself realizing just today that when Kinect comes out
that I want to buy an Xbox 360 (which are finally quiet enough thanks to a
45nm process) just to play EA Sports Active 2.0. It's crazy how things change.

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gfodor
Project Natal. Nuff said.

~~~
gfodor
Why the downvotes? The thesis of this article is that Microsoft is incapable
of innovation.

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hga
Hmmm, has Microsoft " _rarely invented anything that mattered_ "?

~~~
i80and
The problem isn't that they're not inventing stuff; that R&D money isn't just
spent on paperclips, and a lot of interesting stuff comes out as a result. The
problem is that the inventions get squished, not released.

~~~
hga
Well, there's F#, and they support the reference Haskell compiler. But the
more we learn about how totally political the D part of the company is the
more we're likely to believe your thesis that Microsoft Research's notable
lack of impact on the greater company is due to the latter. And they don't
have Xerox's excuse!

Heck, they're so messed up they almost destroyed one of their foundational
cash cows (Windows with the Vista debacle), which would have killed another
(Office). A commentator to Mini-Microsoft's previous blog item claimed that
the Windows group engineers are now required to fill out by the hour time
sheets. The mind boggles ... even if that's not true, the fact that it's
believable says enough.

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csomar
Microsoft is not innovative, but does that matter? Does Offices with
bureaucratic rules need innovation?

Microsoft sells Windows and Office because companies don't like the cloud
(less stable, speed, privacy) and don't like Apple (expensive, re-education of
employees...). So Microsoft products are a good solution.

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borisk
Ha, did MS invent Basic, DOS, word processing, electronic spreadsheets, GUI?
billg was the king of execution. After he moved from managing the company to
working on the antimonopoly case MS lost direction and now behaves like a
typical Fortune 500 corporation.

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zaphar
This article assumes microsoft will never improve its management structure.
This may be true but is pure speculation on the authors part. A lot can happen
in decades and MS had the cash to spend while working it out.

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c00p3r
Isn't it obvious since 2003?

