
CDC: Possible ‘community spread’ coronavirus case in Bay Area - remote_phone
https://www.kron4.com/health/coronavirus/new-coronavirus-case-with-unknown-origin-confirmed-in-northern-california-report-says/
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partiallypro
This is in the same county (Solano) that the flight carrying people stranded
on a cruise ship with corona virus infected people flew into. I wonder if that
is connected in some regard, or if that's just a huge coincidence.

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S_A_P
This virus seems to be right at the cusp of something we should really fear.
~3% mortality rate and at least semi easily transmissible. The fact is that
this could be a lot worse and we are already seeing some ugly behavior from
it. I imagine chaos if mortality climbs by an order of magnitude. We need to
keep our heads here and figure out how to stop this thing.

~~~
dpiers
Mortality rate is much, much lower than 3% if you exclude the elderly and the
critically ill. Based on the Chinese CCDC's report released last week,
covering 72,314 confirmed infections, mortality rate for a young healthy
person is an order of magnitude lower.

80+ years old: 14.8%

70-79 years old: 8.0%

60-69 years old: 3.6%

50-59 years old: 1.3%

40-49 years old: 0.4%

30-39 years old: 0.2%

20-29 years old: 0.2%

10-19 years old: 0.2%

0-9 years old: no fatalities

I think most people are blowing it out of proportion. It's just a bad flu, and
it seems to be responding well to remdesivir treatments in early trials. I
also think that, with the news we're getting now about asymptomatic/minor
cases, it's highly likely the real number of infections is much larger, which
would mean the CFR numbers are way too high.

~~~
erentz
I think your post is intended to be reassuring to the presumable majority
younger demographic on HN.

But it strikes me as very insensitive. Ignoring the validity of the source of
those numbers, even if they hold up. We all know people over 40. We all know
people with existing illness that put them in higher risk brackets. And we all
know people in other regions of the world with poorer healthcare systems where
the fatality rate may go up.

The parent’s fatality rate was broadly correct. You can’t just select out a
big portion of the population to give a better survival rate. Then compare
your hacked fatality rate to the unhacked seasonal flu rate. “Just a bad flu”
that is up to 20x worse than the regular flu is a big big deal. The near
wartime like response in China is not “just a bad flu.” This is affecting a
lot of people in very serious and real world ways.

~~~
jsight
To me, his last paragraph was the most important part. We've seen that the
case rate increases dramatically as more tests are administered.

This is implying a very strong selection bias in the past testing towards the
most severe cases. The mortality rates are certainly much lower than these
estimates.

~~~
Rury
>We've seen that the case rate increases dramatically as more tests are
administered

Is that really true though?

The UK has administered some of the most tests at over 7,119 but only 13
confirmed cases. US has done a measly 445 tests, yet 60 cases? Might be things
are just starting to ramp up, and yet we're behind on testing...

~~~
belltaco
>US has done a measly 445 tests, yet 60 cases?

I think the US tests were much more targeted to those most likely to have
contracted it. Like US citizens returning from Wuhan/Hubei.

~~~
Rury
Yeah that makes sense, although that would be a selection bias towards most
likely cases, not necessarily most severe. Although China's data is most
likely to be biased towards most severe...

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ck2
Handy tracker, death vs survivor counter:

[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

note the extra links at the top too

ps. 2% of 7 Billion is 140 Million people

~~~
bathtub365
The info on this website is useful, but the banner ads around the perimeter
are making me feel sick for some reason

~~~
ck2
There are ads on the internet? Is your ublock broken?

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01100011
Fuck it. Time to WFH for a couple weeks. I'm going to miss the free espresso.

~~~
djannzjkzxn
It’s going to take more than a couple weeks for this to take its course.

~~~
01100011
Right, but I can make the decision then on whether to return to work. As I
said in another thread, I know I'll probably get it eventually and be fine,
but I don't want it when the first wave hits and the health care system is
jammed. Better for everyone if we WFH if possible.

~~~
Fjolsvith
Are you stocked up for six months? If everyone works from home, Amazon, Uber
Eats and Wholesale ain't delivering.

~~~
ClumsyPilot
Stocking up for months is entirely realistic. Canned beans, pasteurized milk,
etc.

~~~
Johnny555
Feasible, but realistic for most people?

A can of beans has around 350 calories, a pound of uncooked rice has 1700
calories

Assuming you want to avoid losing weight, you'll want around 2000
calories/day.

So you'll need 180 cans of beans and 180 lbs of rice. A 5 gallon bucket of
rice weighs around 40 lbs so that's 5 5 gallon buckets.

And you'll want more than rice and beans, so you'd want to store more than
that.

I don't think many people realistically have the space, money, or inclination
to store that much food, especially families.

~~~
Fjolsvith
20 lbs of Rice at Walmart is about $9.00.

2 lbs of Black Beans is $2.22. (figure it to make 4 cans worth).

So about $190 gets that.

I'd throw in a bunch of Ramen Noodles (pro bachelor tip).

~~~
Johnny555
Great, so you can feed your family of 4 for $800 - where are you going to
store that all in your apartment?

I didn't say it's impossible, but not realistic to expect all or even most
Americans to stockpile that much food... especially when the government
insists everything is under control.

~~~
Fjolsvith
> where are you going to store that all in your apartment?

Right by the ammo locker.

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paul7986
...

~~~
anewvillager
After the quarantine was done, it's been established that he doesn't have the
virus and can't transmit to you.

He can however get infected after an outbreak in your community

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scottlocklin
Finally, some good news.

Personally I think this whole thing is an interesting test of how "extremely
online" people react to media manipulation. The actual flu seems pretty boring
and ordinary.

