
The chances of making a successful mobile app are almost nil - uladzislau
https://venturebeat.com/2017/09/24/your-chances-of-making-a-successful-mobile-app-are-almost-nil/
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Clubber
This was all true 5 years ago. When the App Store was announced, I bought a
Mac and learned Obj-C and wrote a few apps. The most successful took off out
of nowhere because someone wrote an article about it. It was on the top charts
in my category and it paid for my truck, but not enough to retire on. It was a
great ride while it lasted. I still get a little residual now and then from
it. Maybe enough to buy lunch once a month.

I stopped writing apps probably 5 years ago when the market became super
saturated. Like the article says, it's all about marketing. The players with
deep pockets dominate and the programming Joe doesn't have a chance in hell
anymore.

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mch82
One of the lessons is to move early on new platforms, it's much easier to sell
an app in a store with hundreds items than millions and when rank is
influenced by sales those early sales really add up. Some of the earliest apps
I bought are still listed as top paid apps.

The challenge is choosing the right next platform to bet development resources
on... Any recommendations?

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deegles
Alexa!

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newbear
Are you making apps for Alexa? What are you making? Do you think it's worth it
to learn without ML/AI knowledge?

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felixgallo
Alexa Skills don't require any AI/ML knowledge of you; that part's already
handled, so getting onboard is very easy. Disclaimer: work on Alexa.

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EGreg
Just like websites, viral effects play a major role for apps. Both people
inviting people, as well as media outlets writing about you. That's how you
get your stuff out there, in a market where there is huge long tail.

~~~
rudedogg
I agree, unfortunately getting published seems really difficult. I released a
Mac app and wrote to every Mac publication I could find - probably 30 - and
never received a single response. The app had/has some rough edges and could
use some more polish, but it was fairly novel.

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scarface74
It’s not any easier or harder to make money as an independent mobile developer
than any other kind of independent developer.

I made a living as a “mobile developer” back in 2008 doing Windows Mobile for
a company. I believe in two years if I actually wanted to,I could go from not
knowing how to develop for any modern mobile platform, to finding a job as a
mobile developer making more than 99% of the independent developers.

~~~
Clubber
In my experience, the job market for mobile is significantly smaller, at least
in my neck of the woods. Also, working for someone else, even as a contractor
isn't ideal. Ideally we would want to own our own product, but as the article
states, that's no longer a cottage industry.

~~~
scarface74
Why is that “ideal” for everyone? My ideal is knowing that I’m going to get
paid every two weeks and sleeping well not caring if the venture I work for
goes belly up knowing that I can get another job quickly.

When considering risks, the payout from working for a company is greater. Most
of the popular mobile apps require a team of engineers, marketers, and
funding.

~~~
Clubber
Well it's not ideal for everyone, but when you own your own product, you can't
be fired on a whim.

~~~
scarface74
But you can spend months on a project and it fail and not make any money from
it. Whether a product fails for a company you work for, you still get paid.

If you are a developer in a decent market (not necessarily SV) and you keep
your skills up, getting another job is relatively easy. It has never in 20+
years taken me more than a month from the time I started looking to getting a
comparable job or better. My record from starting to look to getting an offer
from what was then a Fortune 10 company was four days.

~~~
Clubber
>But you can spend months on a project and it fail and not make any money from
it. Whether a product fails for a company you work for, you still get paid.

Totally agree. I'm saying it's better to own something (that makes the same or
more money) than to work for someone.

>It has never in 20+ years taken me more than a month from the time I started
looking to getting a comparable job or better.

Yes, I'm mostly the same. I had a hard time during the dot bomb because I was
in a city and industry heavily affected by the circumstances at that time, but
other than that, it's easy. I'm still working at the whim of the industry that
is doing it's damnedest to push wages down. I also have to deal with a lot of
processes (and people) that I don't like and know are counter-productive.

Also, our current employment situation probably won't last forever.

~~~
scarface74
It is better but what are the chances of that realistically happening? When I
was doing enterprise mobile development from 2008-2010, I worked for a company
that had people to go out an chase funding, marketing, salespeople, a QA
department, business analysts, etc. I could have never done that as an
individual developer. Even if I were to start my own company, I would still
need capital to compete with the big guys. — and the code would not be _mine_.
It would belong to my business that was partially owned by investors.

~~~
Clubber
>It is better but what are the chances of that realistically happening?

Admittedly slim, but much slimmer if you spend 40 hours a week working for
someone. :)

Mobile got super saturated quick. I tried the same thing and was only
moderately successful. I still work for someone but fight for my own thing
when I can.

~~~
scarface74
_Admittedly slim, but much slimmer if you spend 40 hours a week working for
someone. :)_

Being one of the relatively few people who knew about developing mobile
applications in 2008, I tried to do something “on the side” with a coworker.
Another much better funded company was able to move faster than we could even
though you could tell from their product that they didn’t know the industry
they were chasing.

The only way we could have been competitive (not necessarily successfully) was
by being able to dedicate to it full time and networking and selling during
normal business hours. So yeah, a small independent developer who has to work
full time is ata major disadvantage.

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devdad
Apps that are anchored in the real world is a space that still has plenty of
room. But they also require lots of extra work, since physical goods or actual
people are involved.

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z3t4
They could just close the app store then. (sarcasm) The market is saturated.
But it's also huge, and things move faster then before.

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ringaroundthetx
Your changes of being successful making unsuccessful mobile apps for other
people are almost 100%

