
Britain just got its first concrete sign that Brexit will destroy the economy - bootload
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/britain-just-got-its-first-concrete-sign-that-brexit-will-destroy-the-economy-a7152306.html
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anexprogrammer
"destroy the economy", "terrifying chart" turns out to be a bit of a blip.

Could just as easily be random variation, due to campaign lies on both sides
or nicer weather, as marking anything notable.

------
J_Darnley
A "concrete sign" in the form a a virtual graph showing some obscure figure
(PMI or purchasing managers index) produced by some obscure group (Markit) has
dropped.

~~~
CarolineW

        > ... some obscure group (Markit) ...
    

Looking up Wikipedia[0]:

    
    
        Markit Ltd. is a global, financial information
        and services company with over 4,000 employees,
        founded in 2003 as independent source of credit
        derivative pricing.
    
        Revenue US$ $1.5 billion
    

Scarcely a fly-by-night "unknown" group.

Further, the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS) seems to
agree with them. This was reported in the press:

    
    
        The abrupt and large fall in both orders
        and output reported by IHS Markit and the
        CIPS clearly makes a recession in the
        second half of 2016 a real risk. Similar
        results for August and September would
        suggest a 0.4% contraction in the economy
        in the third quarter.  It only takes two
        successive quarters of contraction to
        constitute a technical recession. [1]
    

Further, these "flash PMI readings" have been used for decades and are
generally regarded as good indicators, albeit possible that they _are_ just
blips and may need revision.

However, it's really not looking good. I personally know of lucrative
contracts that have been cancelled, terminated, or delayed.

By all means feel free to regard all this as scare-mongering, but don't hold
that attitude by default way past the point where the trend becomes obvious.

[0]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markit)

[1] [https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/22/post-
brexit...](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/22/post-brexit-
economy-may-actually-be-worse-than-markits-survey-suggests)

