
CIA Intercepts Underpin Assessment Saudi Crown Prince Targeted Khashoggi - onetimemanytime
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cia-intercepts-underpin-assessment-saudi-crown-prince-targeted-khashoggi-1543640460
======
resters
Without hard data released to the public we should not take the claim at face
value.

The intelligence agencies have a lot of credibility to earn back after the
Snowden revelations. No claims should be trusted without conclusive source
material.

The question is, why is the CIA trying to sway public opinion about this? Why
do we tolerate the CIA or FBI being PR agencies for selectively leaked
information? And why do we assume that their actions are in the national
interest when it is not defined beyond platitudes about freedom.

~~~
almost_usual
The CIA has been shady far before the Snowden revelations, you can find plenty
through the Freedom Of Information act.

>And why do we assume that their actions are in the national interest when it
is not defined beyond platitudes about freedom.

Are you saying supporting SA is in our national interest? I don’t need the CIA
to release info about SA for me not to support them. I’m not going to change
my stance because of some possible CIA motive.

~~~
equalunique
>Are you saying supporting SA is in our national interest

Officially supporting Saudi Arabia has been the US position since Nixon was
president for the purposes of lowering oil prices and assisting Israel.
Supporting Saudi Arabia is undeniably in the national interest if you ask the
people in this country who have been amassing power since that time. National
interest and human rights are separate priorities.

Change would be nice but don't hold your breath.

~~~
resters
Nicely put comment. If the goal is oil prices, the options include full
annexation of Saudi, supporting a favored group of Saudi elites/royals, and
many other options. Each has its humanitarian ups and downs.

It may be the case that national interest sometimes requires making
humanitarian trade-offs, and there is nothing wrong with using the consent
mechanisms of democracy to find a path for US policy amid those trade offs.

But I am certain that creating a pretense that US actions are driven only by
humanitarian concerns and framing the larger policy issues to the public as
over-simplified good vs evil is extremely dishonest, and should not be funded
by taxpayer dollars.

It seems that much as the tooth fairy is practice for religion, religion is
practice for politics.

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giardini
To understand the significance of Khashoggi's death you might read the
excellent and short Wall Street Journal article:

"The Long Struggle for Supremacy in the Muslim World" October 27, 2018 By
Yaroslav Trofimov:

[https://hiiraan.com/news4/2018/Oct/160847/the_long_struggle_...](https://hiiraan.com/news4/2018/Oct/160847/the_long_struggle_for_supremacy_in_the_muslim_world.aspx)

Turks and Saudis have been enemies for centuries. The Khashoggi incident
occurred in Turkey but on sovereign Saudi territory (an embassy). The Turks
were watching _very_ carefully and apparently had eyes both outside and inside
the embassy, an obvious violation of diplomatic protocol. The event has become
an opportunity for the Turks to embarrass the Saudis and attempt recapture of
the leadership of the Sunni Muslim world from the Saudis.

~~~
onetimemanytime
Brilliant article. The Ottomans had an empire that lasted over 650 years, any
Saudi "state" was no match for them. At one point Ottomans were a major threat
to Europe, reaching and almost taking the gates of Vienna
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Vienna](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Vienna)
(Polish knights saved the day and then some!) . The Saudis must've been semi-
organized nomads, no match for Ottoman armies. Once, I think the Sultan sent
the ruler of Egypt, Ali Pasha, with his mercenaries and truly pwned the
Saudis.*

But things change, or some think that they changed. Even today, SA army is not
even a close match for the Turks, but money talks when it comes to alliances.
Personally--call me a bigot--but I think it will SA decades if not generations
to have a true modern army, not based on tribal loyalties and BS.

Fun Fact: Muhammad Ali Pasha gained control of Egypt in the name of the Sultan
as was customary. Wiped out the Mamelukes, after inviting their leaders to a
diner (killed by Ali Pasha's soldiers.) [https://www.historytoday.com/richard-
cavendish/mamelukes-are...](https://www.historytoday.com/richard-
cavendish/mamelukes-are-massacred-egypt) He became so powerful that the Sultan
made agreements with him, he was almost no vassal and his family ruled Egypt
until 1952.

Now the soldiers that made Ali Pasha that great were Albanian mountaineers,
that fought not to embarrass themselves and for spoils. Totally undisciplined,
uneducated, headstrong and they'd no orders from anyone else but their local
area chief. They'd kill a superior for an offense and all soldiers would rally
toward the "killer". Eventually they became a threat to Mohamed Ali Pasha's
power so he sent them to fight the Wahhabi /Saudis in early 1800's. Two birds
with a stone. Here's a typical Albanian mercenary in Egypt
[http://photobucket.com/gallery/user/Edli82/media/bWVkaWFJZDo...](http://photobucket.com/gallery/user/Edli82/media/bWVkaWFJZDoxNTAwMjc3OQ==/?ref=)
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Ali%27s_seizure_of_po...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Ali%27s_seizure_of_power#Al-
Bardisi_and_the_Albanians_fall_out)

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onetimemanytime
Care to guess how CIA did it? I think MBS knows he's a target of secret
services...I doubt he sent a normal, unencrypted sms text.

~~~
garmaine
It’s pay walled, but the text I can see gives no indication that the cia could
read the text. Just that at least 11 messages were sent. Sounds like traffic
analysis.

~~~
onetimemanytime
11 messages with a few hours before /after? makes sense, and let the Saudis
think that we know the what the messages say. If he sent e message every 3
days normally and then sent 11 the day of the killing...

~~~
garmaine
These are messages between MBS and the guy organizing the killing, not MBS
messages generally which would be rather circumstantial.

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village-idiot
The good thing is that bad actors are often so arrogant that they’re casual
about admitting to their crimes on communication devices.

The bad thing is that bad actors control militaries.

------
csomar
> according to a highly classified CIA assessment

Shouldn't the CIA know better how to protect its highly classified CIA
assessments?

~~~
lucaluca1453
There's a good chance this came out when it was clear that the administration
was never going to allow details to be released. They kept the CIA director
from briefing Congress on this assessment. At some point the pressure to
correct public falsehoods builds and takes other channels.

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perseusprime11
I am glad there is a way for these things to come out and hopefully Karma
catches up to this thug. It didn’t feel right that our country's leadership
has set a price of $450B for our values as a nation. We are better off not
taking their money than comprising our values.

~~~
thwyagain29384
>We are better off not taking their money than comprising our values

Nothing will happen. Just look at Kingdom of Saudi Barbaria and their use of
petro dollars to lobby American politics and here are the results so far:

1\. US-EU is willing to sanction Russia for the killing of an ex-Spy

2\. US-EU is willing to sanction North Korea for the chemical assassination of
Kim’s half brother

3\. US-EU is willing to sanction Turkey for the jailing of a Christian Pastor.

4\. US-EU is NOT willing to sanction Kingdom of Saudi Barbaria for the
dismemberment and acid-dissolving of a US-based journalist.

The US has an obvious obvious obvious set of double standards for policy
enforcement when it comes to our oh so sweet ally.

~~~
dang
Please don't create accounts to break the site guidelines with, such as for
political or national flamewar. We've banned this one and another, but
continuing like this will eventually get your main account banned as well.

[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html)

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joecool1029
Link to get you around paywall:
[http://facebook.com/l.php?u=](http://facebook.com/l.php?u=)
[https://www.wsj.com/articles/cia-intercepts-underpin-
assessm...](https://www.wsj.com/articles/cia-intercepts-underpin-assessment-
saudi-crown-prince-targeted-khashoggi-1543640460)

~~~
ShorsHammer
I save it as a bookmark, surprisingly still works after years, doesn't require
a facebook account.

    
    
        javascript:window.location="https://m.facebook.com/l.php?u="+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href);

~~~
hardlianotion
Heh - I think you have just shown it to the wrong people. Link doesn't work no
more.

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known
I'm sure KSA had a
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_guy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_guy)
for this episode

------
crb002
Blockade on Saudi oil now helps US oil companies boost profits. The golden
rule reigns, those with the gold make the rules.

------
leroy_masochist
It's highly, highly unlikely that the SIGINT enterprise captured metadata but
not actual message traffic.

~~~
ryanlol
Given how phone networks work, that’s not entirely obvious. Perhaps they’re
just retroactively taking a look at billing data?

~~~
dboreham
Given how spooks work....the opposite.

~~~
ryanlol
What are you even trying to say?

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vtesucks
Is that an official cia statement?

~~~
assblaster
Most likely intentionally released and used as a bargaining chip by President
Trump to get cheaper oil.

~~~
nirav72
The U.S imports very little oil from KSA.

~~~
cm2187
It's rather SA capacity to influence oil prices.

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cm2187
Not the I have much sympathy for the Saudi, but that’s lot of fuss for one
extrajudicial killing. How many drone strikes did Obama order? How many people
did Putin get assassinated? Outside of a handful of tiny countries, I don’t
think any head of state didn’t order some assassination one way or another in
the last 2 years.

~~~
baxtr
I think the opposite conclusion should be true. Make any other extrajudicial
killing as transparent and visible as this one and you’ll get the same level
of “fuss”

~~~
penagwin
Also that the drone strikes are against "terrorists" and not "journalists"
(although how to confirm this I'm not sure).

While any extra judicial killings are a very bad direction IMO, most people
would agree that democracy should protect journalists but not terrorists.

Tl;Dr - supposedly if we took the people who get drone strikes to court they
would be found guilty in the states anyway, a journalist wouldn't be so there
killing is considered unjustified

~~~
mrunkel
Thank god all the terrorists wear t-shirts identifying them as such.

Also, luckily everyone in the world agrees who the terrorists are, so it's not
a problem.

Furthermore, it's awesome that governments never use the terrorist label on
people they just don't like.

Thought experiments:

Are the people that Kim Jong Un calls "terrorists" good guys or bad guys?

Are people that drop explosives remotely from miles away "terrorists" or "good
guys?"

Why do we bother with trials in this country? Since those people would
probably be found guilty, wouldn't it be better to just find them guilty from
the offset? Especially when issuing lethal sentences!

This is not meant to be snarky, at least not a lot, just trying to show that
things aren't this clear cut.

~~~
Veen
> Also, luckily everyone in the world agrees who the terrorists are, so it's
> not a problem.

Why should everyone in the world have to agree who the terrorists are? This
sort of relativism is corrosive and it's not a luxury terrorists and dictators
indulge in. They're clear who the bad guys are, and it's us. That's what makes
them our enemy, regardless of how they happen to percieve their own interests
and the langugage they use to describe them.

~~~
mrunkel
So you are adopting the same world view as dictators and terrorists. At least
you’re not trying to justify that somehow “we” still have the moral high
ground.

~~~
Veen
If you mean by "the same world view" that I believe there is a difference
between right and wrong. Then yes, I entirely agree with the terrorists and
dictators on that point.

I'd imagine some terrorists and dictators like beer and chocolate-covered
pretzels as much as I do. If so, I agree with terrorists and dictators about
that too.

But we do have a difference of opinions when it comes to deliberately blowing
up children or building theocratic states, for example.

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hindsightbias
I think we have a failure to communicate here. This can all go away with those
memorandums of intent turning into real arms deals.

