
Mary Meeker's misinformation has influence - tikhon
http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Mary-Meeker-s-misinformation-has-influence-4585290.php?cmpid=twitter
======
tikhon
Bram Cohen's comment on this story: "The really misleading spin is the claim
that mobile is taking over computers. The actual numbers in that report
indicated that smart mobile has basically killed off dumb mobile, but only had
a modest negative impact on regular computers."

source:
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/ui7ak5pz6wi8c5o/bram%20cohen%20on%...](https://www.dropbox.com/s/ui7ak5pz6wi8c5o/bram%20cohen%20on%20mary%20meeker%27s%20misinformation%20and%20on%20mobile%20vs%20desktop%20usage.png)
also hat tip to falon for finding this story -- i don't know her HN username

~~~
Ologn
Well for the one top ten web site that has open web logs, mobile traffic does
seem to be taking off at the expense of desktops -
[http://www.vartmp.com/blog/2013/04/16](http://www.vartmp.com/blog/2013/04/16)

~~~
wildwood
This is a percentage chart, which only shows that mobile traffic is eating
into desktops' _share_ of the total traffic.

This chart says nothing about whether mobile is eating into the absolute
traffic that desktops are getting. More likely mobile traffic is increasing a
lot, and desktop is holding steady.

~~~
integraton
Correct. A cursory glance at the data used for that graph
[http://stats.wikimedia.org/archive/squid_reports](http://stats.wikimedia.org/archive/squid_reports)
shows that desktop traffic has actually increased significantly in that time
period (+ 25ish% for both windows and mac). For example:

Feb 2012:
[http://stats.wikimedia.org/archive/squid_reports/2012-02/Squ...](http://stats.wikimedia.org/archive/squid_reports/2012-02/SquidReportOperatingSystems.htm)

Feb 2013:
[http://stats.wikimedia.org/archive/squid_reports/2013-02/Squ...](http://stats.wikimedia.org/archive/squid_reports/2013-02/SquidReportOperatingSystems.htm)

~~~
peloton
FWIW, I have first party analytics data on a top 50 online site and this was
the trend we saw too. Can't remember if there were any meaningful trends in
time spent though (meaning, if desktop was losing to mobile on a time spent
basis).

------
RockyMcNuts
She has some interesting stuff, maybe some factoids were too good to fact
check

[http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-
trend...](http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2013)

I always thought she was more of a cheerleader than a tech visionary, but she
dug deep and looked at the big picture too, not someone who was lazy or sloppy
or full of s __*.

Seems a little nitpicky. Not like the mainstream media or SF Gate never has to
correct anything.

~~~
seeingfurther
Fairly certain the general truth holds. It's not like there's some missing
yellow cake.

------
ivv
I was looking at her old reports and thinking how she missed many of the real
trends (as opposed to fads) at their onset. The October 2007 report only
mentions the iPhone as a footnote. The 2005 (iirc) report talks about Joost,
but not Facebook.

------
lingben
wait, people are actually paying attention to Mary Meeker?

seems that we have the memory of a goldfish

what's next? listening to Henry Blodget?

[http://www.salon.com/2013/04/10/henry_blodgets_horrible_bitc...](http://www.salon.com/2013/04/10/henry_blodgets_horrible_bitcoin_advice&#x2F);

oh

~~~
nashequilibrium
The issue is more with the median age of a hackernews user, most of them don't
really know what happened in the dotcom bust or some of the characters like
Meeker and Blodget. I was really surprised to see was hired by a big VC firm.
I still remember reading about her in this book
([http://www.amazon.com/Hedgehogging-Barton-
Biggs/dp/047006773...](http://www.amazon.com/Hedgehogging-Barton-
Biggs/dp/047006773X/ref=pd_sim_b_14)) where Biggs alludes to her here and
there. When a segment is flush with money the standards and ethics are lowered
due to the amount of noise. We are seeing this now in the tech industry after
the hedgefund bubble burst, although the good thing is that most investments
for startups are very small around 300k avg vs the millions and billions when
a company with $2mill in revenue went public. I noticed something about
snapchat looking to raise $100mill at a $1billion valuation, this is scary and
hurts the industry. The VC's that push this valuation will have to answer to
their investors when the purge comes.

------
aswanson
"The talk she gave was her annual Internet Trends Report at the Wall Street
Journal's annual D: All Things Digital conference....perhaps the most
important talk in all of tech"

Quick question: _Why_ is that conference regarded in this manner?

~~~
protomyth
They get big names and it is the WSJ. The audience also has quite a few upper
level folks.

~~~
aswanson
Oh, okay. Not knocking the characterization, it's just that when I hear big
name pubs dictating influence and importance in tech, my bullshit detectors go
into overdrive. I recall a "titans of tech" or some conference like that
around 2000 featuring Steve Case, Steve Ballmer, and some other people who
basically had no influence on the direction of the industry beyond that day.
So I look at stuff like that as a lagging indicator.

~~~
protomyth
They had Steve Jobs and Bill Gates doing a joint interview, so it doesn't get
anymore serious than that. They get current CEOs (Apple and Google). Microsoft
might not be the influence it was but its CEO's words have quite an influence
on some big markets.

------
nhebb
This whole article is about a single slide? That seems a bit heavy-handed. OK,
so the slide in question says:

    
    
      Mobile Users Reach to phone ~150x a Day...
      Could be Hands-Free with Wearables
    

The article misses the key point of that headline: Many of the tasks that
people most frequently use their smartphones for could be done with a hands-
free, wearable device. Meeker is pointing out industry opportunities. The
actual number is almost irrelevant.

------
seeingfurther
We don't need a verified data source to tell us the average person wipes their
backside once a day with toilet paper. We know it to be generally true such
that some people wipe more, some less, others use baby wipes, but the take
away is that the TP market is huge!

Would it help if she said 'the average cell phone user checks their cell phone
A LOT every day'?

The whole article about 'misinformation' only focuses on one fact that she
supposedly misinformed us about. I bet dollars to donuts we all agree people
check their phones very frequently, which is all that slide was driving at.

~~~
tikhon
I'm not sure you are 100% following the point of the article.

~~~
seeingfurther
I don't think there is a point to this article other than nitpicking. We can
all agree she sourced the data from a quote from Danielle Levitas, and that it
wasn't scientific or necessarily Danielle's intent. But the point of the slide
still stands and this is an obnoxious fluff piece of an article. Mary has her
issues but this is silly.

~~~
akiselev
What she did is something we call "bullshitting" or "making it up" because if
the data in question really was regarding non-smartphone users then she would
have to be either terribly misguided (putting it lightly) or flat out lying.

Whether incompetence or unscrupulousness, it doesn't matter. She shouldn't be
uttering such false information promoted so specifically if she promotes her
talk or her talk is viewed as a state of the industry report.

~~~
seeingfurther
So you don't think the average person checks their cell phone 150 times a day?

~~~
tikhon
again, what he or she thinks is not the point

~~~
seeingfurther
What she thinks IS the point.

She's been in this industry since before most of this site could code.

She is not god or a soothsayer but when she talks about trends people know she
has been analyzing the market for a long time and they trust her opinions and
facts. She makes one comment on a slide at a private event about people
checking their cell phones and all of a sudden you guys are like Chris Hansen
busting a pedophile. Relax.

If you want to comment on things tangential to the article as Bram's, that's
fine. The point of the article is to harangue Mary for one item which we all
KNOW is true.

The downvotes sting Tikhon. Say it ain't so.

~~~
lingben
Take it from someone who probably is 2.5 times the avg age of the avg yc user
and therefore was around when she made a name for herself the first time:
Meeker is 99% bullshit and 1% luck

