
The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006) - Jarred
https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me
======
doctorcroc
I am a fan of Tesla and am excited for the Model 3, but some of the hype
around the car is a bit much. I think this is a good counter-perspective:
[http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/31/tesla-s-
mod...](http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/31/tesla-s-
model-3-could-destroy-elon-musk-s-company.html)

Creating an affordable EV at mass consumer scale is a much harder problem than
creating a luxury EV at modest volume. However, if there was anyone I would
bet on making this work and building an amazing car, it would be Elon Musk and
team.

~~~
dionidium
One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype
about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a
bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about
a high-end vehicle. Nobody driving a Model 3 is going to be devastated when it
needs to go in the shop.

~~~
tdicola
> Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a
> high-end vehicle.

I don't think you've been car shopping much recently. 'Economy' cars like the
Honda Civic, Mazda 3, Toyota Camry, etc. can easily push up against $30k with
a few options. For some real sticker shock look at minivans, a Honda Odyssey
can easily hit $40k-50k out the door.

With a five year loan or a three year lease and a bit of trade in from a
previous car you can easily be driving a $35k car for just a few hundred bucks
a month.

~~~
viraptor
You're still talking about new cars, rather than what people actually buy.
[http://www.edmunds.com/honda/civic/for-
sale/?src=14597540479...](http://www.edmunds.com/honda/civic/for-
sale/?src=1459754047934) says you can go well under 20k for a Honda Civic if
you don't want a new one.

~~~
mikeash
There is no point in bringing up the price of used cars when talking about the
price of a new car and how that positions it in the market. Somebody had to
purchase that Civic when it was new, after all.

~~~
viraptor
I don't see why not. There are two prices. The new car is a luxury and almost
only thing about "new" is a status symbol. The moment you hand over the money
and drive out, it lost a lot of its value - if you want to sell it now, you're
going to get the real value back. And that's what the second price is - the
real value of the car.

The parent comment was talking specifically about what people pay and not
about the price tag at the new car dealer.

~~~
mikeash
The new and used car markets are nearly separate. Few people set out to
purchase a car open to both possibilities. If they were comparable then the
prices would be more similar. Look at houses for an example of that. New and
used houses tend to share the same market, and also tend to have similar
prices. If you're looking at a new car and trying to see how it might sell,
you want to compare it to other new cars.

------
harwoodleon
Elon Musk is the brand investors invest in, not tesla, not spacex. As he says,
he is the pot of money - he is the core driver.

I personally applaud his bravery, changing the established order is hard and
carries great risk.

He is the real consortium of products and can shift money between these
industries at will.

The risk here for all of his companies is that he is building a house of
cards, one company collapse could bring it all down.

Or if they all succeed, he may become one of he most powerful entrepreneurs in
history.

Which is his real 'secret plan'

~~~
mabbo
He actually gambled the house of cards early on. SpaceX needed money, he bet
Tesla, and they got lucky.

It's not simply that he's a great entrepreneur, it's that his goals seem to be
slightly different from others. Every business owner wants to make a lot of
money, but Musk has decided to do that via pushing humanity into a Sci-fi
future as soon as possible.

~~~
infogulch
Musk is definitely going for the Science victory.

------
madads
As he says in short the masterplan is to:

"Build sports car.

Use that money to build an affordable car.

Use that money to build an even more affordable car.

While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation
options.

Don't tell anyone."

~~~
agumonkey
Trying not to be too much of a fan boy I smiled at the fact that, on its way
to develop EV market recognition and infrastructure they made cars that topped
anything else in safety and speed.

'if you want to have EV, all you have to do is buy the best cars we just made'
kind of.

~~~
forgetsusername
> _that topped anything else in safety and speed._

In what sense? Look at European NCAP safety ratings; the Model S is great, but
certainly didn't "top anything else". There are quite a few cars with better
overall safety ratings.

And speed? Good acceleration, sure. But not faster than anything else. Top
speed either. Where does this myth originate?

~~~
agumonkey
Maybe I forgot and it was the US standards that had to recalibrate but it was
said in a few articles that Model S was above the highest ratings.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S#Safety](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S#Safety)
But I now read that there was a rebuttal ..

For speed I meant the 0 to 100km/h, but anyway you're right, not the fastest
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fastest_production_car...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fastest_production_cars_by_acceleration)
, only number 6. Maybe seeing it faster than a McLaren made me assume it was
number one.

------
huuu
Related is Tesla's recycling program of batteries:
[https://www.teslamotors.com/nl_NL/blog/teslas-closed-loop-
ba...](https://www.teslamotors.com/nl_NL/blog/teslas-closed-loop-battery-
recycling-program)

Some people are skeptical about electric cars because the estimate life span
of a battery is around eight years. But reading the article above (and others)
you can see the batteries are not an issue anymore.

I was also a little skeptical about electric cars but I think the absolute
pros are:

    
    
      * Electricity can come from any source (coal, nuclear, sun, water, waste, aliens).
      * No emission (in cities).
      * No noise pollution.
     
    

But I still got one issue with a lot of those environment friendly solutions.
Because why would you use a lot of energy for sensors, insane mode, automatic
doors, displays, computers, and so on? I know you need some of them but in the
end environment friendly means: using less energy (in any form).

~~~
jsli
> but in the end environment friendly means: using less energy (in any form).

Is it? I thought it meant no harm to the environment. If the charging station
is powered by solar energy, I don't see how using the otherwise wasted energy
wrong.

~~~
huuu
We also thought that using oil wouldn't harm the world.

It's all about scale.

Of course some solar panels are not going to harm the world. But what if we
need, lets say, 1% of the earth covered with solar panels?

If it's hard to predict the effects it might be dangerous.

------
JayHost
I remember their plan is basically how Ford operated.

It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly.

I remember seeing the concept car for the Chevy Volt a few years ago and
thinking how cool it was.

Then they released it and made it aerodynamic and thus BORING.

It's pretty nuts this car is 35k and the list of advantages to disadvantages
can be summed as.

There's no reason to buy any other car.

~~~
Hermel
>It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly.

The BMW electric cars (i3 and i8) are quite successful, beating Tesla sales-
wise in Germany and selling half as many world-wide.

The great weakness of the Tesla S in the German market ist the German
autobahn, where it runs out of energy very quickly (after an hour or so for
aggressive drivers). The Tesla S is not designed for sustained high speeds.

~~~
martin_bech
The i3 is a nice small car, but warranty of the battery is horrible, and the
range is only so so, specially in cold weater. The i8 is really a plug in
hybrid, looks really amazing, but is slower, holds fewer people, and has less
space than my Tesla Model S85D. The autobahn is very valid point, driving at
200km/h+ for sustained amounts of time will drain the battery(the amount if
sheer wind resistance, makes power used pr km. skyrocket), but driving at
130-150km/h, and stopping and charging when you are low (10% chargeish) is
quite effective, as you charge quite fast, when the battery is warm, and low.
Thankfully the autobahn always has sections of roadwork, and here the Model S
powertrain is very effective at cruising :) .

~~~
Reason077
_The i3 is a nice small car, but warranty of the battery is horrible_

The battery on the i3 is warrantied for 8 years or 100,000 miles, with a drop
below 70% of the original capacity considered to be a battery failure.

Tesla also have an 8-year battery warranty, with _unlimited_ miles, but
(afaik) they do not explicitly specify what level of capacity loss would be a
warranty failure.

Considering most people are unlikely to exceed 100,000 miles in 8 years in a
"city car" like the i3, is this really a horrible warranty?

~~~
martin_bech
I was sure the warranty was worse, when I was looking at buying one, but 70%
of realworld range would be something like 44miles on a full charge to empty.
That would be horrible. My Tesla has lost very very little range in ist first
year, 1 or 2%.

~~~
Reason077
I see your point. A 30% drop in capacity in an 80-mile range car is worse than
a 30% drop in one that started with 280 miles.

But these are worst-case scenarios. Hopefully the batteries will last much
longer than what they're warrantied for.

And with any luck, affordable aftermarket battery replacements will be common
enough by the time the battery needs replacing (and may give a lot more range,
too).

------
ripitrust
Link to the missing white paper :
[http://www.evworld.com/library/Tesla_21centuryEV.pdf](http://www.evworld.com/library/Tesla_21centuryEV.pdf)

------
westoque
Build sports car

Use that money to build an affordable car

Use that money to build an even more affordable car

\---

He's definitely a visionary. It's amazing how he followed up his plans to the
dot.

------
jamisteven
Ill buy one when the windows have solar cells integrated.

------
rgawdzik
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you
win. Mahatma Gandhi

~~~
Fluid_Mechanics
"Misattributed quotes taken out of context can be used to defend anything"

-Mahatma Gandhi

[http://www.snopes.com/first-they-ignore-you/](http://www.snopes.com/first-
they-ignore-you/)

~~~
rgawdzik
Why are you obsessing over the origin of the quote? There is nothing to defend
here.

