

Ask HN: What was the chances the poland president die in a plane crash ? - mickeyben

I already heard it's about 1 on 10.5 millions for anyone, but what about the chances it was the president ?
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rdl
Tupolevs aren't exactly the safest of planes, and I think the President flew a
lot more hours than most people.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if there was pressure put on the aircrew to not
divert from their schedule/destination, due to VIPs.

I wouldn't rule out conspiracy theories, but I would definitely say there was
a higher than baseline chance that the official story is what happened.

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regularfry
Apparently it should be taken as significantly higher for Polish politicians,
given the safety record of their air fleet. They had a previous prime minister
survive a helicopter crash in 2003.

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hga
Reasonably low ... but I can't see appointing Putin to head the investigation
as anything other than a slap in the face.

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CamperBob
That's a complex question. The answer depends on whether there were more Poles
on the left side of the plane, or the right.

