

Apple-Verizon Political Calculus, 2010 Edition - georgekv
http://daringfireball.net/2010/05/apple_verizon_political_calculus

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credo

            >>Verizon and Apple are both in strong positions they might want  each other, but neither yet needs the other.
    

I think he is mistaken on this. imo Apple needs to break out of its exclusive-
tieup with AT&T and Apple needs this more than Verizon.

Being locked to AT&T has greatly reduced Apple's market share and it is the
only reason why more US customers are now buying Android phones than iPhones.

Verizon will continue to be the #1 US carrier without the iPhone. However, if
Apple continues its exclusive arrangement with AT&T for a very long period,
Android will continue to gain new-smartphone market share at Apple's expense.
That will also mean that more developers will migrate to Android. All of this
will hurt Apple in the long run.

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Judson
I have always thought this, and its just my opinion, but it makes a lot of
sense.

Why would apple _just now_ begin to offer a CDMA iPhone when LTE technology is
just around the corner (early next year / kinda right now)?

When the original iPhone came out, there were reports of 100+ field testers
testing the iPhone for at least a few months. So it begs to reason that Apple
would at least require a few months worth of testing before it had a model
that was suitable for production on a CDMA network.

You would think someone would have heard / seen someone with a verizon iphone
if it was being tested.

If Apple waits until September (as Gruber guessed), why not wait a few more
months and release a CDMA in June 2011 when your not working on the biggest
change in operating system to date (iPhone / iPad OS 4)

~~~
jsz0
CDMA speeds are good enough for most people right now. LTE is exciting but it
will probably be years before consumers are making buying choices based on LTE
support. Apple did launch the original iPhone without 3G so they have a track
record of making some conservative engineering choices. Verizon is doing an
LTE overlay on top of their existing CDMA network so any future Verizon iPhone
will almost certainly be an LTE/CDMA hybrid. From an RF perspective I would
think engineering a handset to operate at 700-850Mhz for CDMA and LTE in the
future is easier than even current GSM designs around the world. A future
LTE/GSM iPhone is going to need antennas tuned for 850Mhz, 1900Mhz, 2.6Ghz,
etc.

~~~
Judson
I had always been under the impression that LTE would create an ubiquitous
network that would finally consolidate all of the extra man-power of cdma /
GSM engineering, but I stand corrected.

I do, however, think that 2011 will be when the Verizon iPhone is debuted. The
supposed deal Apple has with AT&T is lucrative now, and as time passes,
Verizon will offer a sweeter deal since it stands to get more and more
wireless "switchers" as the iPhone attracts more users and gains more
momentum.

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phil
_But imagine a hypothetical world where there was no Android, or where Android
was utterly unsuccessful in the market. In that world, Apple would be in a
much stronger position against Verizon — in that world, Verizon would need the
iPhone._

 _A strong Apple does Verizon no good, regardless if they’re carrying the
iPhone. Verizon’s interests are best served in a market where there are many
phone makers — Apple, RIM, HTC, Motorola, Samsung, HP — none of which are in a
dominant position._

Those two factors might mean that it's in Apple's best interest to wait, and
only deal with Verizon once they are clearly going to win, and can dictate
their terms. Whether they should do so hinges on whether or not they can beat
the other platforms without access to Verizon's subscribers.

~~~
sshumaker
"Verizon’s interests are best served in a market where there are many phone
makers"...

A simple application of commoditizing your complements.
<http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/StrategyLetterV.html>

By that logic, though, Apple should aggressively be putting iPhones on all the
major carriers - failure to do so is the probably the main reason there are
more installed Android phones out there right now.

But I'm guessing AT&T is giving them an amazing deal, like a revenue share of
the user's monthly subscription.

~~~
phil
That's an interesting point, but don't two year wireless contracts and locked
phones pretty much kill the commoditizing effect of being on every carrier?

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joubert
CDMA is so last decade. If you travel the world GSM is the only way.

~~~
izendejas
Yet, maybe someone can correct me if I'm wrong, CDMA is a key reason Verizon's
service is much more reliable than AT&T's.

~~~
czhiddy
AFAIK, this isn't because of the underlying GSM vs CDMA technology. Verizon
just has more towers around and better backend infrastructure to handle high
loads.

------
hugh3
Personally, I just wish somebody would start offering the iPhone, or any
smartphone, on prepaid. Until then I'm sticking with my twenty-buck LG with
the broken front screen.

