

Has Apple Peaked? - ezequiel-garzon
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/22/opinion/nocera-has-apple-peaked.html

======
steve8918
I'm neither an Apple fanboy nor a hater. I have an iPhone5, but I use a
Windows 7 desktop PC. (I am, however, an Apple Maps hater after using it for a
few days.)

The annoying thing about articles like this is that it's basically the
professional journalist's version of trolling... making an outrageous
statement in order to garner attention/clicks. He can come in and shit all
over Apple, and suffer no consequences if he's wrong.

I would be infinitely more interested in his opinion if he actually shorted
the stock and put his money where his mouth is, journalistic rules against
trading aside.

~~~
mycodebreaks
One thing he correctly points out is how much better Apple Maps would have
been if Mr. Jobs were around. Apple Maps is too big of a blunder for Apple to
contain its criticism.

~~~
SpikeDad
Garbage statement - both you and the NY Times article. Speculation from a
position of ZERO information is stupid and transparently so.

No one know why Apple rolled their own Maps and no one could possible know how
different it would be if Steve was still alive.

The only think I really know is that Apple is smarter than you or the NY
Times.

------
mattparcher
For the unfamiliar, Betteridge’s Law of Headlines[1]:

 _"Any headline which ends in a question mark can be answered by the word
'no'"_

[1] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridges_Law_of_Headlines>

~~~
pav3l
_The unfamiliar_? This article is referenced on HN at least once a week now

~~~
maayank
And for a good reason. I find the noise to signal ratio of these articles
relatively high and I think many would like to see less of them.

~~~
5xz41s0P8T5N
_Will HN ever stop upvoting linkbait, references to Betteridge’s Law, or self-
referential jokes?_

------
knowtheory
The canonization of Steve Jobs as some sort of saint auteur is just freaking
ridiculous.

Apple has made missteps in the past, _while_ Steve Jobs was alive. That Jobs
was not around for this particular misstep isn't particularly interesting or
relevant. The disappearance of Google Maps is a consequence of the breakdown
of relations between Google and Apple, and that is not about Steve Jobs.

Making it about him is just stupid. Google has power over Apple in this case,
and Apple is bearing the heat for it, Steve Jobs or no.

~~~
mikeash
It's baffling. The G4 cube, Motorola ROKR, retroactively downclocked Power Mac
G4s, Mac OS X pinstripes... the man was behind some amazing stuff, but it's
not like he was somehow immune to screwups.

~~~
enraged_camel
Your argument is a gigantic strawman. Nobody has ever claimed that Steve Jobs
was perfect and never made mistakes. People admire him because he was an
amazing visionary whose product ideas revolutionized several industries.

~~~
mikeash
People have been saying _repeatedly_ that this maps problem would not have
happened with Jobs at the helm. I can only conclude that they think he never
screwed anything up, because why else would you say that? Do you know?

------
zaidf
If I live in Manhattan and extensively use Maps for public transport info, is
it true that feature no longer exists?

If so, I'm going to wait before upgrading to iOS 6. Widespread blunder like
this does so much to hurt the Apple brand especially in light of an ambitious
competitor like Samsung. Apple should realize that even its biggest fan boys
will begin rethinking if you cripple basic parts of their product repeatedly.
There will come an unforced blunder that couldn't be fixed by an update or use
of a cover.

I've been an iPhone user for years but am seriously considering a move to S3
after coming across a few use cases that make me hate Apple.

Basically the trend I am beginning to see is that if you are making enterprise
specific apps, sooner or later you come across a basic and intentional iOS
limitation that makes you hit your head against the wall.

~~~
czhiddy
Yup, no more public transport info. Until Google releases their iOS Maps app
(assuming they do), the best solution seems to be loading up maps.google.com
in Safari instead.

~~~
jorts
I believe it is pending approval.

------
xxcode
Apple will never be able to match Google in Maps. Here's why:

Apple does not have any technical depth.

I am a former Apple employee. Apple can't do technically hard problems that
require a multi-person effort. Yes, Apple can and has done good Hardware. But
hardware is not technically hard - its an art. Apple is good at Art. Google is
good at science.

~~~
bigtones
Wow - did you work at the Apple Store, because that comment is very short
sighted. In terms of technical problems that require multi-person effort, OSX
is a testament to that, as is Motion, Logic Pro and Compressor. All those are
highly technical pieces of software that lead their respective markets. To say
Apple can't "do" technically hard problems is extremely short sighted.

~~~
berkut
lol!

Motion's a joke - to say it leads its respective market is ridiculous - After
Effects leads the motion graphics segment, and Nuke leads the compositing
segment.

The only highly technical app Apple has had that lead the market was Shake,
and they completely fucked that one up (due to their secrecy and not telling
their customers plans for future releases) and ended up killing the product
after the majority of the Nothing Real team left and all their high-end
customers had moved to Nuke.

------
majormajor
Part of this is the same old rehashed-to-death "would Jobs allow a misstep"
revisionism, but the question about protecting the current success is a more
interesting one I haven't seen elsewhere. Apple, from '97 until now, hasn't
been afraid to cannibalize their old mainstay products -- and that's where I
think the absence of Jobs (and just the sheer size of the iOS success) might
change things.

------
smoyer
I have a Powerbook G3 Wallstreet that's still running (and the battery still
holds a charge) after almost 15 years and I have an iPad I use extensively for
reading. Until last month, I used Ubuntu on everything and now that I have a
MacBook, I'm not sure why there has been such a fuss over OSX. I'm probably
moving back to Ubuntu. I also have an Android phone that I wouldn't trade for
an iPhone.

I don't love or hate Apple (or Microsoft for that matter) but I think if Apple
is indeed on the down-slope it has nothing to do with the maps application. My
beef with both Apple and Microsoft (locking the hardware so I can't use it for
other purposes is pretty shady) is that devices I used to be able to peer into
layer-by-layer (if I so choose) are now completely opaque. You've essentially
reduced an advanced user to the same state of novice-hood as the general
population. No thanks!

 _EDIT_ \- But it just works! I hear that from so many people and it just
isn't true. The suite of tools I generally use have the same issues on all
three platforms so the only distinguishing characteristic is whether I can
actually fix it.

------
empire29
This iOS6 Maps controversy smacks of Antenna-gate. Picking on one shortcoming
and heralding the downfall of Apple/iPhone.

Yeah, it sucks that iOS6 maps aren't as good as iOS5 maps.

Does taking a step backward on (important) iOS app mean Apple has peaked?
Probably not.

Will the general consumer be happy enough with the iPhone5/iOS6 as a whole
that they will tolerate (and then forget about) Maps's reduction in quality?
Probably.

Will Apple improve Maps so that in 6-12 months where the iOS6 maps quality is
on par with iOS5 maps? Probably.

Time will tell - but my money is this is a classic case of the media/blogs
trolling for page views, the general consumer not noticing (ala antenna-gate),
and all this will be forgotten in a month.

...and Job's reign had missteps as well - from imac disc mouse to iphone
cellular performance on at&t to mobileme to iphone4 antenna. Apple's great
power is they make the _entire package_ so enchanting that consumers tolerate
issues until they can be resolved.

~~~
mikeash
I can tell you that I never encountered a real user who cared about
antennagate, but my Apple-using friends are talking nonstop about how awful
the new maps are. Antennagate was something that affected essentially nobody,
but got picked up as a great story by the media. These maps deficiencies are
affecting a _lot_ of real people, and making some of them pretty angry. Most
people became aware of antennagate from the media, but everybody I've talked
to has learned about iOS 6 maps either from using it and finding it to be sub-
par (which is how it happened for me) or talking to people who did that.

------
sil3ntmac
You tell me?

[https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:AAPL](https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:AAPL)

There were plenty of disasters while Jobs was present... anyone remember the
iPhone4 antenna disaster? Apple will reiterate and fix and all will be well
again. I doubt they will ultimately lose many customers over this.

~~~
cooldeal
Stock price is a lagging indicator of stagnation, if it's even an indicator.

------
lttlrck
Why didn't they publish this two weeks ago... oh right...

IOS is in refinement, the focus internally is elsewhere.

The iPhone came from nowhere (just ask Nokia) and so will the next big thing.

Of course it might flop, but basing any long-term Apple analysis on IOS5 and
iPhone 5 is very short-sighted.

------
johnrydell
It is nearly impossible to stay "the best" for a long time. Apple is going to
be great and very profitable for many years to come. But the amazing run
they've been on for the past decade will slowly start to fade as entrepreneurs
around the world all try to take a piece of their billion dollar business.

------
jakejake
What a bunch of baloney. The author is just rewriting history to be
sensationalist. The maps have some problems, we all know it already (need one
of those batman slapping robin pictures).

Apple has mis-steps just like any company. FCPX was very recent and was a
total disaster at launch and Steve Jobs was very much there. Have we already
forgotten "antenna-gate" with the iPhone 4? There's an expectation for Apple
to be so perfect that if any problem happens the ship is going down. No
company can break new ground year after year and not have some rough starts.

------
joejohnson
_If Steve Jobs were still alive, would the new map application on the iPhone 5
be such an unmitigated disaster? Interesting question, isn’t it?_

No, it's not interesting. It shows a simplistic view of Apple and how
companies function. There were missteps while Jobs was alive, and obviously
Apple's recent announcements were plans that Jobs was somewhat involved in (he
worked almost up until his death).

In a month or two this Maps debacle will be stale news, and the bloggers will
onto the next shiny toy or minor misstep.

------
dasil003
When a company has had the run of success that Apple has, there is almost
nowhere else to go but down. This article is just capitalizing on the
statistical probability that Apple has no way of creating another breakaway
product that would catapult them into a hitherto unknown league of corporate
success.

------
logn
Fortunately, Steve Jobs had the idea for Apple TV (a real TV not the little
box) that could give Apple another runaway success. With their designer Ive's
and the UI designers still around, I see no reason why Apple TV won't propel
Apple for many years to come.

~~~
rphlx
TV is fading. Yes, Baby Boomers still watch it. But those under 30 mostly
watch video on phones, computers, tablets now.

~~~
Someone
I do not think AppleTV is the same as that TV you are talking about. AppleTV
turns that large screen in your living room that used to only get data from a
cable into a large Internet-connected display that shows on-demand photos and
video (soemtimes from those phones and tablets). In a sense, the TV just is
the largest display in the house, in a place where it is convenient for
multiple people to look at it from comfortable chairs.

------
velodrome
I don't think apple has peaked but growth could be slowing. Like Google and
Microsoft, there are many places where they can improve.

It looks like they rushed a few things. They are clearly under pressure from
other competitors and they are sweating bullets trying to maintain an edge.

I think the worse positioned companies are the OEMs. Samsung, HTC, and Nokia
do not control the software stack. Microsoft and Google are moving towards
making their own hardware.

I think Samsung, HTC, and Nokia have peaked. Plain and simple.

------
mikecane
About two years ago, I thought the iPod had peaked and couldn't go anywhere.
Yet look at the new iPod Nano.

~~~
steve19
The problem is not that apples new products aren't improving, but that they
are no longer miles ahead of their smartphone competitors. Android is now a
compelling alternative. Apple will eventually release a iPhone nano, but
Samsung will release a galaxy micro before or soon after.

Has any company in history been so large and yet so reliant on a single
product? Because of this I am fat to nervous to invest in apple, despite
loving their products.

~~~
mendocino
> Has any company in history been so large and yet so reliant on a single
> product?

Google? (AdWords)

------
bennesvig
While the maps might not be up to Google's in quality, especially in regard to
public transportation, turn by turn navigation is a huge upgrade that wasn't
available in Google Maps for iPhone users.

The title/article comes off as mostly click-bait journalism.

------
Kilimanjaro
No, it hasn't peaked. iPhone peaked, just like iPod peaked. But make no
mistake, Apple is in a favorable position to be the 'american Sony' for
decades to come.

Apple TV? Apple watch? Apple console?

Who knows, but whatever comes next, Apple will deliver.

------
jarcoal
They probably have, but that doesn't mean they don't have a lot of great
contributions ahead.

The last decade at Apple has been a once-in-a-century run; we might all die
before seeing another company pull something like that off again.

------
Codhisattva
It's a silly article. What's really being exposed is just how far ahead Google
is with map data aggregation. It's suddenly very apparent that after Search,
Google's got great map data.

------
dschiptsov
Sure. With The New iPad. Now it is already in decline.

------
marshallp
If it reshifted to data science from hardware, it has the most cash of any
tech company and could grow even larger. Steve Wozniak recently talked about
smartphones having AI so this might be already in the works (focus on
improving siri rather than stylishness).

~~~
rgbrgb
I hope Apple understands that when it comes to a physical computing device,
people (including me) care about look and feel (stylishness) a lot more than
voice recognition.

~~~
marshallp
Yeah, but what happens when your phone is google glass (could happen in 2
years). Style would end up be just the frame you can buy anywhere.

