

Nouriel Roubini: Don't Believe The Optimists - riffer
http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/20/depression-recession-green-shoots-housing-jobs-opinions-columnists-nouriel-roubini_print.html

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mkn
This is dated May 21, 2009.

Is this here because it was prescient and we're seeing exactly what was
described in the article? Or is it here to show how wrong this guy was?

These aren't smart-mouthed internet questions. I really don't know where we
stand now compared to this guy's prognostications of doom.

Any ideas?

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henryprecheur
The article was and still is mostly right:

[http://www.economist.com/opinion/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_i...](http://www.economist.com/opinion/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=14258893)

U shaped recovery still seems more likely.

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kdw
The article is right for the same reason that horoscopes seem right, because
it doesn't really say anything. To my knowledge, nobody intelligent was
seriously suggesting that a sharp recovery was likely. His article then
discounts that relatively absurd possibility and then states his belief that
the market will either be U-shaped, flat, or decline with a double-dip
recession.

Given that at that point a serious depression was pretty much ruled out as
well, he basically said that all possible responses were, in his opinion,
possible... and then people read it and thought "wow, that horoscope was
totally correct."

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anigbrowl
A more sober article than the title might suggest, but let's not fall so in
love with our problems that become apathetic about pursuing solutions. There's
nothing actionable here, even for the cautious.

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californiaguy2
I think reality is somewhere in between "V-shaped recovery" and his
predictions of misery until the end of 2011.

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henryprecheur
He doesn't really predict "misery until the end of 2011", you can have a
growing GDP and a rise of unemployment at the same time.

Unemployment is well known lagging indicator. Its rise until at least 2010 is
something widely accepted by governments and economists.

