
The Cobra Effect, but with an antidote - paulorlando
https://unintendedconsequenc.es/the-cobra-effect-redesigned/
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elvinyung
Shameless plug: a while ago I wrote a blog post covering similar topics with a
goal of critically re/thinking about how we think about designing systems.
[https://www.notion.so/Towards-Humanistic-
Systems-6f8cf442bca...](https://www.notion.so/Towards-Humanistic-
Systems-6f8cf442bca149afbf7e1eea096619d9)

I think the problem with this article is that it tries to suggest tips on how
to _prevent_ the cobra effect before the system is deployed, but instead it
should be more about _recognizing_ and _reacting_ to it quickly after the
system is deployed.

The way I see it (an extension of Campbell's Law [1]), systems tend to get
corrupted and have perverse incentives no matter what. You're probably not
going to understand the problem enough to design the perfect system the first
time, no matter how hard you try.

In other words, don't try to predict the future, to see all ends, because you
can't. Even more important than the ability to design good systems is the
ability to change the system, not just to re/design the entire system at once,
but to iterate over time.

This is much, much easier said than done, but realizing it is the first step.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell%27s_law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell%27s_law)

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ismail
Yep I agreee.

This is the nature of complex systems. you cannot possibly see all
permutations of your decisions/actions.

However one should at least think them through and then have a feedback or
monitoring system in place to recognise when you are having unintended
consequences and then react.

You iterate to a solution by constant monitoring and feedback, then reacting.
Put another way it is not “I implement this and I am done”

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voiper1
From the suggested solutions, it sounds like you need deep domain knowledge to
know exactly how the cobra effect will manifest and what rules to use to
prevent it.

That's hardly a simple solution!

~~~
imron
Hopefully people making policy have access to subject matter experts with deep
domain knowledge.

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mirimir
I thought this was going to be about tripping on cobratoxin. It is a central
analgesic, at the right dose.[0] And there must be old folk knowledge, because
William S. Burroughs went on about it decades ago.

0)
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5542074/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5542074/)

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mhb
So all you need is hindsight.

