
Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk (1738) [pdf] - stopachka
https://engineering.purdue.edu/~ipollak/ece302/FALL09/notes/Bernoulli_1738.pdf
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Nydhal
Must Read:

Peters, O. (2019). The ergodicity problem in economics. Nature Physics,
15(12), 1216-1221.

[https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=16380731883124301...](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=16380731883124301371)

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juskrey
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion)

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beefman
See also:

Peters and Gell-Mann (2015)
[https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0585](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0585)

Adamou et al (2019)
[https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.02137](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.02137)

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unbalancedparen
We have done some simulations and explorations on Peters and Adamou's work:

\-
[https://lambdaclass.com/finance_playground/ergodicity/ergodi...](https://lambdaclass.com/finance_playground/ergodicity/ergodicity-
explorations.html)

\-
[https://lambdaclass.com/RGBM_animations/](https://lambdaclass.com/RGBM_animations/)

~~~
trishankkarthik
Hihi, me too:
[https://github.com/trishankkarthik/notebooks/blob/master/Eva...](https://github.com/trishankkarthik/notebooks/blob/master/Evaluating%20Gambles%20using%20Dynamics.ipynb)

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juskrey
Hi Trish!

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trishankkarthik
Hi Stan!

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1wd
The original Latin text (1738)
[https://archive.org/details/SpecimenTheoriaeNovaeDeMensuraSo...](https://archive.org/details/SpecimenTheoriaeNovaeDeMensuraSortis)

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tunesmith
If expected utility is actually logarithmic, then that would an imply that a
flat tax is actually fair. But a real flat tax, not the kind some Republicans
have advanced in the past. It would appeal to worked/earned income and capital
income.

I wonder what kind of findings there are indicating that progressive is
actually more fair than flat? Perhaps most of the pro-progressive argument is
just to counteract other regressive elements.

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ssivark
You’re arguing as if the goal of taxes is to “punish” people and therefore
taxing everyone the same fraction results in the same did-utility. Needless to
say, there are ostensibly many other reasons/justifications for taxes.

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ravar
There are arguably two competing directives, one is too get the most revenue
per disutility generated, in which case the flat tax is definitely not
desirable. But another is fairness, it seems unfair to only make certain
people suffer disutility, this logic is commonly accepted when discussing
minority rights. So maybe the flat tax is minority rights for the rich? And
what societies try to find a middle ground between the two goals?

~~~
ssivark
Arguably far more concrete notions of utility (such as benefits obtained, or
resources consumed, and development of human potential) are preferable for
basing policy decisions on, rather than such abstract notions as logarithmic
utility of made-up concepts.

