
Wages for college graduates across many majors have fallen since the recession - bootload
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-30/u-s-college-grads-see-slim-to-nothing-wage-gains-since-recession
======
kevinmannix
It's amusing that the suggested solution is to go and spend more money on a
graduate-level degree. That feels eerily similar to the conventional wisdom
that every single high school student should go to college majoring in a STEM
field, which seems to be losing a little steam over the recent years.

~~~
madengr
PhD is the new MS

MS the new BS

BS the new HS diploma

I should have stayed for my PhD 22 years ago, but back then it was only for
acedemia track. These days there seem to be plenty of freshly minted PhD.
Maybe that will soon be the minimum job qualification.

~~~
amelius
And, unfortunately, knowing how to code is _not_ the new literacy.

~~~
mustacheemperor
But having an MS in data science without being able to write six functioning
lines of python is already common.

~~~
Balgair
And people on HN wonder about the disconnect between the pay of the Big 4 and
their eternal complaints of 'we can't find any engineers'. Maybe they aren't
just greedy, maybe there is a nugget of truth in their statements.

------
drawkbox
Undeniably this has been a trend downward in wages into wage stagnation. The
share of GDP to workers is on a near 50 year decline since the mid-70s[1].
Wages and raises, once a staple of America and working hard to achieve a good
life, has become lost and efficiently worked out of the system.

Wage stagnation for 15 years heavily and 40 years overall does a number on the
wallet while the costs of everything are far beyond inflation[2].

America has lost the ability to give meaningful wage increases to keep growth
going in a consumer based economy. When the consumer based economy is low on
fuel (cash in wallets and accounts) then it sputters.

Back in the day America viewed wages as a sign of good work and companies saw
benefits of increasing workers pay. This led to more money in the system,
employees that buy and recommend where they work, better customer service,
better informed employees and more.

To "Make America Great Again" either raise wages as a function of work over
time/productivity or drive down the dollar so Americans can get raises again.
In both cases the wealthy will have to be willing to pay their part, but they
didn't get rich by paying.

[1]
[https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2016/06/2393/](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2016/06/2393/)

[2] [http://fortune.com/2015/09/01/heres-the-real-reason-you-
dont...](http://fortune.com/2015/09/01/heres-the-real-reason-you-dont-make-
enough-money/)

------
danielvf
The number of newly graduated college students per year has increased
approximately 50% in the last fifteen years. A reduction in average wages
would be expected from supply and demand alone.

However, I don't think an "oversupply" is the correct explanation. At least in
the technical, engineering, and manufacturing fields that I know, companies
are desperate for more good people. And this is even as STEM graduation rates
are at an all time high.

Looking at it from the the graduate's side, every single clueful person I know
that graduated in the last five years is employed, and quickly so.

How can can average wages be going down, even demand increases?

The key is that we are talking "average wages". College graduates in any field
are not a uniform bunch.

The number of new competent individuals graduated seems to be holding steady,
while around them grow an increasing sea of people who don't show up for work,
or have a clue about getting actual work done in their profession.

~~~
madengr
Yep, you nailed it. Number going up; quality number holding steady. Probably
people going into it for $ with no passion for it.

~~~
TheAdamAndChe
It's hard to be passionate when wages are going down, jobs are getting
concentrated to a handful of urban centers, cost of living(especially in
housing) is going up like crazy, and companies work you as much as you can and
show no loyalty, all while the profits of those companies are larger than
ever. Oh yeah, and the fact that you start out your career $40k-$100k in debt
to get a piece of paper because middle class jobs have been outsourced kind of
puts a damper on things.

My generation's apathy doesn't come from nothing.

------
kajj
I live in Europe, I'm about to finish my Bachelor that I don't care about. I
study engineering and don't think I have learned that much and have pretty
much been a waste of time.

But before I went to University I was unemployed, working as a industrial
cleaner, working as a seller in a little Ice cream parlor, and customer
support ( through the phone ) and more unemployed.

So yes my degree is just to get in the door, it's ridiculous but it's the
world we live in. Maybe I could have tried harder, maybe this and that. But
I'm not the only one in my class that thinks like me and had the same
experience.

~~~
madengr
The material presented to you is only the tip of the iceberg. If you didn't
bother learning the material, then why bother going through the door?

~~~
kajj
Because I really don't care, because I just do it to get a job. And my grades
are pretty much average in everything so shouldn't be worse off than the rest.

I just do it to not be unemployed or work low paying jobs for the next 40
years.

~~~
stouset
As an American, my perspective is that this right here is why bachelor's
degrees are becoming worth less and less.

By your own admission, you've learned little. You've put in just enough effort
to pass your classes. You aren't seemingly interested in the field. And you're
not motivated to learn more on your own in a field where knowledge is rapidly
obsoleted.

The credential of a university degree was previously a signal of having
learned about a topic, having worked hard in doing so, having interest in the
field, and (at least in this field) being interested and/or capable enough to
continue learning as necessary.

If it's no longer a strong indicator of these things, why should employers
value it as highly? My own experience mirrors your admission here: fresh
university grads frequently lack even the bare minimum ability that would be
expected to be productive. Many don't follow this pattern, but they're the
exception rather than the rule. And they get hired while the others don't.

It's not the degree that gets you the job, it's the ability. And if you have a
degree but little ability, you're not getting the job. The focus on going to
university should be about getting the _ability_ , but it's become about
getting the credential, even though the credential was never really the
valuable part to begin with.

I want to be clear here that there's no judgment on my part of you or your
character. You're doing what you think is best and/or necessary in your life
and it's not my place to try and find fault with that. I'm only trying to
point out that your approach seems symptomatic of a larger problem — and one
that I don't have meaningful solutions for. I do worry though that just
getting the credential won't be enough to give you the chance of success
you're hoping it will, but I wish you luck regardless.

~~~
kajj
I actually agree with just about everything you say, I see the problem with it
as well. But since I don't see any other solution and lack the ability to
change society on the fundamental level needed to solve this problem, then I
feel like I "Have to play the game".

Yes we don't know at all how it will turn out, but I at least think that I
can't be worse of than if I hadn't gone to university.

------
Kurtz79
I'm talking about Europe (where college is in general more affordable and
there is no stigma associated to getting your degree from a public school),
but if you are looking for employment as a professional at an established
company, with no previous experience, not having a degree will definitely make
it harder:

\- To get an interview in the first place.

\- To get a decent starting salary.

\- To get into management positions as you progress.

~~~
doktrin
I'm very early in the process of looking for a job in Europe, and lots of
things do indeed seem to be different. Here are some things I've been asked to
provide prior to an interview (that none of my US-based employers have
requested) :

    
    
        * Full life-long gapless CV 
        * marital status
        * family status
        * hobbies
        * original college transcript
        * multiple references
        * picture
    

To your point, there definitely seems to be more stigma against those without
college education. I once accidentally sent a resume without my college info,
and was asked matter-of-factly if I was "uneducated". In the US, most
employers don't even seem to care about my schooling anymore since I have 5+
years of professional experience.

~~~
kec
Several of those things are inadvisible / effectively illegal for US employers
to ask due to anti discrimination laws.

------
allsunny
FWIW, I never graduated from college but turned out quite successful, at least
as far as job position and compensation goes. I make well over average at a
popular software company in the Bay Area.

Still, for the past 3 years I have been using my weekends and evenings to work
on my BS in CS. And, while surely I was able to be successful building
software without it, a new clarity has come that had never been there before.
Perhaps it's because I have industry experience to draw on but I regret not
having done this earlier in my life (I'm 39). So my point is, if you're in
college reading this now, please do yourself a favor and see it through to
completion. You're in a fortunate position (even though the daily grind
sucks), take a deep breath, pause, and enjoy it.

~~~
digitalsushi
Is it possible that people just get a clarity with age? I'm 37 and also feel
like I have had a fog lift this decade.

I would like to hear a few other folks here share whether they felt a general
increase of clarity and insight as they have come into their middle ages.

My dad always said he did his best thinking in his 40s. He said that he knew
he wasnt as fast or as sharp, but still having a lot of that, plus a really
good working model of the world by that point, left him with the best product
of those factors.

Or maybe it's just obvious and not true at all.

~~~
allsunny
It could be. The clarity I'm speaking about came more from being led deeper
into areas that I'd never had a need to explore in my job. E.g. How computers
truly work, physically and mathematically, the specifics of scheduling
algorithms used in operating systems, the utility of bit masking in
assembly... I never had a need for any of that. To your point though, I may
not have appreciated it when I was 18-22. I think I might have just gone
through the learning motions, like when you learn the fundamental theorem of
calculus; it doesn't immediately strike you as how amazing it is unless you've
got the mind for that sort of thing (I don't) or you have a teacher that
forces you to pause. In any event...

~~~
Jimpulse
Going back to school after being in the software industry seems like it's more
effective. I had similar sentiments with how during college I just went
through the learning motions. Now going back and going through the material
after some industry experience, everything makes so much more sense and is
more engaging. Knowing how the concepts immediately relate to my work helps
motivate and solidify my learning.

------
kolbe
"College graduate" means almost nothing anymore. When not having a college
degree became a social shame, the US government decided it needed to socialize
the pride of achievement that true college grads used to get to feel.

~~~
bigtimeidiot
> _" College graduate" means almost nothing anymore."_

Exactly. I have 2 degrees, obtained about 8 years apart, so I've spent a few
years doing undergraduate work. Not sure what it's like in the US, but here in
Canada it's nearly impossible to flunk out of University. Between the ability
to find "bird courses" with the help of technology to rank and rate classes
and profs, to the garbage incentives of "if this person flunks out, there goes
next year's tuition" pretty much everyone can scrape by.

------
Neliquat
When everyone has a degree, it just shows that undergrad level should be
tought in HS. Oh and yadda yadda 'everyone has a degree, except subhumans with
GED' is partly becoming true in peoples eyes...

------
cadlin
This article talks about wage growth for college only. There's no comparison
to high school grad's wage growth or those with graduate degrees. You are
jumping to conclusions about the value of a college degree without accounting
for alternatives.

Most high school grads won't become programmers. They will work in warehouses,
low level healthcare jobs, etc. The wage growth for high school graduates is
worse than college graduates. It's a problem with the whole economy, not
colleges specifically.

~~~
devwastaken
Its easy to say that those who go to college make more, which is true, but
those who go to college generally have higher goals and will work for years in
suffocating living conditions. Not that they knew of that beforehand (gotta
leave that out to get that special debt money), but they adapt. I don't think
college creates success in programming, its yourself. In fields such as
Medical or physical engineering, I completely agree that schools dedicated to
that play a significantly bigger part, though.

------
sprash
Supply and demand.

Solution: Don't waste money one college.

~~~
olegkikin
Rather, don't waste money on a (financially) useless degree. If you want to
learn arts or history or gender studies, there are much much cheaper ways than
to dump $100K on your education.

I got downvoted before for stating that position, but HN has been a little
hypocritical on that matter. On the one hand, when discussing issues of
automation, many state that there will always be enough of jobs, we just have
to educate people better and in the right fields.

On the other hand, I often see the statements that people should be able to
learn (and get paid for it) anything they want.

I disagree with both of these positions.

~~~
dukeluke
The problem is that the value of the degree is dropping significantly. I'm
unemployed right now because all the tech support positions require a
bachelor's degree. I already have a year and a half experience. Why should I
have to go to college to get a position that should be entry level?

~~~
Neliquat
Tip: Ignore that 'requirement' as we all know its not one. Apply as usual, if
it comes up, state your experince and enthusiasim are equivalent. They may pay
you less, but seldom will the lack of degree in IT be a hard stop. The only
trick is to bypass HR filters. I find talking first to the hiring manager
before floating a cv works best. They can bypass the bs, and many are
impressed that you did more than shoot another email in to the abyss.

~~~
TheAdamAndChe
The fact that this is the case is pretty terrible. And the only reason talking
to the hiring manager first works is because it's not the norm. If everyone
does it, the value is lost.

Same with the degree. When everyone has a degree, it's not special anymore.
It's merely a way to get people in debt and transfer the cost of job training
to the employee.

------
atemerev
I don't see how anyone can be hired "straight after college" unless they come
straight to Google or Goldman Sachs who can afford _extensive_ training
programs.

College education these days looks more like a luxury good, not a job
prerequisite. It is of more value if you want to do research or work on
bleeding edge fields like advanced artificial intelligence or biotech, but if
you just want to be a decent software engineer, it doesn't make economic sense
anymore, in my opinion.

(Disclosure: worked 10 years in the industry before finally getting my degree
— because I wanted to move to R&D).

~~~
sleepychu
Most of the degree is waste if you want to be a software dev (IMHO).

The industry could do really well out of recognizing that it's a vocational
occupation and switching to an apprenticeship model.

~~~
DoofusOfDeath
In my experience, your point is valid regarding some software jobs, but not
all.

As I've worked my way into more technically demanding roles, it's been very
useful to have a foundation of big-O analysis, the expressive power of
different levels in the Chomsky hierarchy, (mathematical) optimization theory,
graph theory, compilers, and/or computer architecture.

Many of these topics could be learned by a bright person on-demand.

However, some of the topics are important to be familiar with before taking on
a project, because they let you avoid costly, time-consuming mistakes.

~~~
zer0tonin
Going to university doesn't mean you will learn any of these.

~~~
jghn
However obtaining a Computer Science degree should imply that you _have_.

