
Tesla fatal car crash prompts NTSB investigation - 11thEarlOfMar
https://techcrunch.com/2018/03/27/tesla-fatal-car-crash-prompts-ntsb-investigation/
======
zaroth
There’s excellent discussion about the accident at the Tesla forum. [1]

The big take-away from their research is that particular exit-only left-lane
(which is one of two side by side carpool lanes) is poorly marked, has been
consistently gotten worse as changes have been made to the road over the last
several years, does not have proper lane markings (missing chevrons in the
non-lane), _routinely_ has cars cutting right across the gore point (to the
point where there are dash cam videos of almost accidents at that exact point
linked in the forum) and, most damning of all, the resettable safety cushion
device [2] which protects the gore point had already been hit just recently
and there’s evidence it _had not been reset_ when it was hit again by the
Model X, which meant the X suffered a direct impact with a narrow slice of
concrete.

If anything I think NTSB should be investigating _Caltrans_ for this one.

[1] - [https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-x-crash-on-
us-...](https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-x-crash-on-
us-101-mountain-view-ca.111505/)

[2] -
[https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2636752/](https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2636752/)

~~~
debt
I think what's being massively overlooked in many crashes that involved Tesla
is the insane inferno caused by the impact on the batteries. I mean, the guy
died from the burns from the inferno, not from the actual impact of the crash.

The picture shows the front side of the car completely incinerated. Not to
mention, the cleanup of the crash took much longer than it should've because
of the EMS had serious concerns about the melted batteries.

Tesla cars are great until you get trapped inside a battery-fueled inferno.
Youtube it, those batteries literally create a meteoric fireball.

~~~
zaroth
> ...the guy died from the burns from the inferno, not from the actual impact
> of the crash.

Incorrect.

“Witnesses were able to extract the driver before the flames posed any threat
to him.“

Here is VIDEO of the Tesla immediately after the crash, taken by one of the
guys who helped pull the driver out of the car:

[https://youtu.be/RlQTeF45aIE](https://youtu.be/RlQTeF45aIE)

The battery is only just starting to ignite at this point after suffering
catastrophic damage. (You can see individual cells torn apart). I would say
this is significantly safer than a dozen gallons of gas which surely would
have exploded in the same scenario.

What IS true is that the aftermath is harder to cleanup because the damaged
cells can pose a threat for reigniting.

~~~
ExcelSaga
Gasoline under normal conditions doesn’t explode, it burns. I’m not denying
that a fire was the likely outcome in either case, but neither gasoline nor
batteries detonate, they deflagrate. Gasoline in particular, despite what
Hollywood would have you believe, isn’t like nitroglycerin.

~~~
sjwright
Actually I'd sooner blame video games, which often assert that a single bullet
to the gas tank door will cause an instant car-flipping fireball.

~~~
colejohnson66
That’s not video games; that’s Hollywood

~~~
sjwright
I sincerely can't remember the last time I saw a hollywood movie where a
single bullet could cause a car to fireball.

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RcouF1uZ4gsC
Looks like TSLA dropped nearly 10% today (including after hours).
[https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA?p=TSLA](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA?p=TSLA)

With the Uber accident, I think the public is going to be very wary about
over-hyped self driving claims. Tesla is a big offender in that regards where
the marketing is that its collision avoidance and lane assistance technology
is "Autopilot".

~~~
MBCook
This isn’t the only thing that has happened, a major hedge fund guy apparently
predicted that they’ll be bankrupt within four months unless something really
big changes because they’re spending is totally unsustainable.

~~~
thematt
Their corporate debt also got downgraded to B3 by Moody's today.

~~~
grzm
What's frustrating for me is I don't know how much to trust the ratings
agencies any more after their involvement in the 2008 financial crisis.
Moody's in particular was fined over $800 million. Admittedly part of that is
ignorance of how the agencies have performed overall, but that is such a
strong black mark. Trust is one of those things that once lost is hard to
regain.

~~~
t3rmi
Maybe we can trust the bad ratings but not the good ones :P

------
danso
FWIW, previous discussion (17 comments) from several days ago, back when news
of the fatal accident was first known:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16669241](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16669241)

edit: Worth pointing out that in the previous Tesla fatality investigated by
the NTSB for Autopilot-related issues, the victim was well known as someone
who posted videos that showed off his Tesla's Autopilot capability. [0] I
don't think anything like that is known about the 38-year-old victim in this
week's incident. More details of that accident are here, from the San Jose
Merc:

[https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/03/27/ntsb-investigating-
fa...](https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/03/27/ntsb-investigating-fatal-crash-
on-highway-101-involving-a-tesla/)

> _Friday morning, a San Mateo man died when his Tesla Model X crashed at the
> Highway 101 and Highway 85 connector, authorities said. Wei Huang, 38, was
> traveling in the carpool lane of southbound 101 around 9:30 a.m. that
> morning when he collided with the barrier separating his lane from the
> Highway 85 flyover carpool lane, according to the California Highway
> Patrol._

[0] [https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/02/business/joshua-brown-
tec...](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/02/business/joshua-brown-technology-
enthusiast-tested-the-limits-of-his-tesla.html)

------
hsrada
A post on Tesla's blog about this incident - "What We Know About Last Week's
Accident" [https://www.tesla.com/blog/what-we-know-about-last-weeks-
acc...](https://www.tesla.com/blog/what-we-know-about-last-weeks-accident)

------
TomK32
Now with discussion being a lot about the safety of this lane and barrier,
here's a thought that could improve road safety for everyone:

With more and more auto-piloting cars on the road calculating the road and
make decisions on what's the safest way to continue, wouldn't be it rather
easy for this data to flow back? Spots that are often causing trouble for the
brains of the autopilot could then be identified easily and be the road,
markings, signage, etc improved much quicker. Today's method are most likely a
mix of experience and looking at the fatality and accident statistics for last
year.

~~~
slivym
It may be a bit of a political problem. "Hey, why are the potholes on my road
not getting fixed, but Tesla gets the government to paint new chevrons on some
fancy highway"

~~~
TomK32
With almost everyone in a SUV potholes become a feature...

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rocky1138
How many other car manufacturers have had accidents investigated by the NTSB?

~~~
mc32
They usually investigate companies whose products have a major impact on
safety on the roadways [firestone for the Explorer rollovers, for example].
Anyhow, if there's an extra-ordinary vehicular/transport accident of note,
they will likely investigate.

~~~
greglindahl
NTSB also investigates failures of highway safety equipment, such as the crash
barrier in that location. Which may or may not have been missing after a
recent crash.

~~~
mc32
Good point as it appears the impact attenuator had not been replaced after
having been compressed by what appears to have been a previous accident, if
the photos and timelines by witness are correct.

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fndrplayer13
Have we seen similar levels of damage in other cars that carry large battery
packs and have been in head-on-collisions?

I dont really have any commentary one way or another about autopilot or the
safety of batteries, I'm just thinking there are probably other accidents that
have happened in the industry in similar conditions to this.

For example, the Prius and Volt have been on the road for quite some time, and
both cars carry relatively large batteries (though certainly not as large as
that on a Model X). When involved in head-on collisions do they see such
drastic damage/fires?

Just curious. I don't know that its even fair to compare those types of
vehicles given the difference in the size of battery.

~~~
mrguyorama
I think the old prius used lead-acid batteries, IE conventional automotive
batteries. This significantly reduced the risk of fire, though I don't think
that was the main reason for choosing them

~~~
jhayward
No, all Prius prior to model year 2017 used NiMh batteries. Some in 2017 were
starting to ship with Li-ion batteries.

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dayaz36
Why is this a story? Are Tesla cars not allowed to get into accidents?

~~~
OldArrow
Why are comment about Uber accident different than about Tesla accident. Why
are many so biased about the subject. In Uber case everyone was levelheaded
about the news and waited for official answer . When Tesla maked an accident
there are 50% of post questioning about if it happend , why report and useless
armchair reporting about conditions of the road.

~~~
rm_-rf_slash
The difference is that the Uber accident was the first _pedestrian_ fatality
of an autonomous vehicle, whereas fatal crashes of _drivers_ have been
happening for a few years now.

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kosei
So, is the NTSB staffed/staffing up to accommodate the massive increase in
these types of investigations that are likely to crop up over the next few
years?

~~~
manicdee
Why would there be a massive increase in these kinds of accidents?

~~~
macintux
I imagine the point the parent was trying to make is that the NTSB will be
more interested in autonomy-related accidents than common car crashes, and as
more cars with autonomous features are sold there will be more such accidents
to investigate, regardless of how good the systems may be.

So today the NTSB probably investigates very, very few car crashes, but that
should rise quite a bit.

------
Overtonwindow
Perhaps I missed it but can someone explain why the NTSB is getting involved?
Was it at the request of some official?

~~~
danielvf
The NTSB gets to pick its highway investigations. No one has to call them in.
(49 CFR 831.30)

They don’t investigate many per year though, so this is something special. I’m
guessing they will be investigating these new technology crashes.

~~~
michaelt
They might have been waiting for a severe EV battery fire to investigate.

After all, EVs are becoming increasingly common; if fire departments need
special training or equipment, now's the time to issue recommendations.

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dingo_bat
You know it's something to do with the autopilot when NTSB invokes itself to
do a car crash investigation.

~~~
greglindahl
People are assuming that all over this discussion, but it's not necessarily
the case. I drive past that location on a regular basis, usually in the
carpool lane and into the left exit. I've seen many drivers cut over from the
exiting left lane to the main road, often dangerously. So no, I wouldn't
assume autopilot is involved at all.

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matte_black
If one more incident happens like this within another week, it will be an
epidemic and self-driving cars are finished.

~~~
jasongill
While I don't disagree that continued bad press could set back consumer
confidence in this new technology, I think the wheels are already in motion -
self driving vehicles (in some form) are coming, like it or not.

~~~
gwbas1c
Setting back consumer confidence is a good thing: Anyone who thinks automated
cars will be ready before 2030 is delusional.

2030 is coming soon, and people have short memories.

~~~
tigershark
Waymo is already operating self driving cars without a safety driver moving
people around Chandler. So I guess that self driving cars are already here.

~~~
Piskvorrr
"The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed." -William
Gibson

In other words, yes, you will have high-tech enclaves ("works around Chandler
because we already know how to drive there"); they will be minor compared to
the rest of the world still living in 20th century (if even that). Try driving
a SDC outside the population centers - this is literally uncharted territory.
"But but but cities are hard, everything else is EASY!" Oh yeah? Once SDVs
venture out in the open, we'll see another wave of deaths (beyond the one that
begins now): "car drove itself off badly marked road", "car stranded itself
and did something profoundly stupid" etc.

Driving with exact maps takes off one of the hard parts; having a point cloud
of the entire continent sounds improbable.

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mc32
This might sound a bit retroactive, but why not require that systems which
allow for even temporary autonomous mode have road-embedded systems and real-
time comms with neighbors in order to be activational?

That is, do not allow autonomous mode, unless there is an old-school road-
embedded autonav system and if there are other vehicles on the road, it be
able to realtime comm with at least xx% of its directional and radial
neighbors (to add predictability and reduce misinformation.) This in addition
to all current guidance systems.

Obvs road-embedded systems do not account for debris, accidents, etc., but
know the ideal path and would be backup-of last resort (incapacitated
operator, other systems down). Real-time comms with neighbors surfaces good
information and buries stale or inaccurate info.

~~~
83457
Because then we would never have autonomous cars

~~~
mc32
I would contend that. Dissemination (even distribution) might be slower, but
it could evolve in specialized local areas (large campuses, special transit
corridors, etc.) and slowly but safely expand outside those areas.

~~~
greglindahl
Given that you don't have any idea if autopilot was involved in this accident,
why are you calling for anything to change? Shouldn't you wait until a few
more facts are known?

~~~
mc32
That's true with regard to this incident. But there are the incidents by other
developers of the technologies where the systems have proven at fault.

What I'm saying is that given that the technology has not yet proven itself in
demanding scenarios, we may ask for more rigorous requirements if this is to
become the default navigation mode of the future (no human intervention).

Do we have data on how many times people have had to avert an incident that
wasn't reported (my autonav almost crashed me, but I took over)? If we had
public data, we could make some kind of assessment but even then, if they
proved good, we could make them even better yet with the additional
support/failsafe systems.

