
Show HN: A state-of-the-art statistical model of skill and game outcomes - lum
https://github.com/lucasmaystre/kickscore
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lum
Hi HN,

together with colleagues from EPFL I developed a new statistical model that
can be used to (a) understand & visualize the skill of sports teams and
players, and (b) to predict outcomes of matches. The model is trained on
historical data.

In short: it's an extension of the Elo rating system & TrueSkill. The way we
improve upon these is by letting the (latent) skill of players & teams change
over time in a more flexible way.

I developed it as a Python library, with a (hopefully) easy-to-use API. I'd be
happy to get your feedback!

Today I'm presenting the paper we wrote about the model & the inference
algorithm at the Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD) conference in
Anchorage, Alaska. It explains all the technical details [1]

[1]: [https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.07746](https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.07746)

