

Canada's Economic Slide in Five Charts - adventured
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-02/canada-s-economic-slide-in-five-charts

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moonshinefe
Those are some pretty depressing charts. It's actually somewhat surreal that
we pay $0.75CAD to $1 USD these days, since as I recall several years ago the
CAD was actually around the same as USD (even higher at one point).

Also, let's not forget the terrible domestic policies Harper has had, not just
economic. Bill C-51 comes to mind. If you view the Wikipedia page on it, you
can see how a couple of deaths loosely related to "terrorism" (just a lone
maniac with a gun, really) was used to drum up fear and ram through sweeping
new powers to various agencies. All at the expense of the privacy of the
average citizen of course.

I'll be quite surprised if Harper gains another term. But with 2 left-leaning
parties splitting the vote, anything can happen.

~~~
tempestn
I agree that the charts are unfortunate. (Also with your stance on C-51 FWIW.)
I wouldn't necessarily agree that the reduction in the CAD/USD recently is a
symptom of poor policy though. For one thing, the CAD has remained more stable
compared to most other currencies; it's mostly that the USD has gained, likely
due to its status as the 'safe' reserve currency. For another, a lower dollar
isn't necessarily objectively 'bad'. Yes, it reduces the Canadian GDP as
measured in USD (as per that one chart), but that doesn't necessarily
translate into a reduced average quality of life for Canadians. (It's good for
some, bad for others, and probably not hugely impactful for most.)

~~~
Steko
CAD has a very high correlation with oil prices, according to [1] it's 0.78.

[1] [http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/021315/how-
wh...](http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/021315/how-why-oil-
impacts-canadian-dollar-cad.asp)

~~~
tempestn
Thank you, yes, another great point. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean
a lower CAD isn't 'bad', but it does suggest it isn't really the government's
fault. (Unless you feel the government should be working harder to reduce that
correlation (and more generally the economy's reliance on natural resources).)

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qCOVET
I live in Alberta and feeling the pain. In my opinion, the only industry that
might be doing well in Canada is lumber (mainly, BC). With high USD, lumber
exporters are making good money and with low crude, they spend less on their
machinery.

The entire service industry in Alberta is in chaos and it impacts the whole
country. We were the biggest contributors to the over all GDP and employment
growth in Canada. Unfortunately businesses are now putting their equipment up
for auction, people are losing their jobs and not sure what might happen next.

I am optimistic though - in periods of down turn and recession, people tend to
get more entrepreneurial and find ways to bring innovation to their work. For
long term prospect, this recession may be helping us in diversifying our
portfolio and minimizing our dependency on just one industry.

~~~
desdiv
>In my opinion, the only industry that might be doing well in Canada is lumber
(mainly, BC).

I think you're underestimating the strength of the auto industry in Ontario.
Canada is actually ahead of UK and France in terms of vehicle production [0].

[0]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_motor_veh...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_motor_vehicle_production)

~~~
qCOVET
oooh .. very interesting. Thanks for that !

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lewisl9029
As a recent Waterloo grad, I can't help but feel that the tech industry in
Canada has been losing _a lot_ of talent to the US, even from our own top
schools. Just about everyone I know who's good enough to have offers from US
companies have taken the offers and left.

And it's not hard to imagine why: the average "highly competitive" salary in
Canada is pathetic compared to what you could be making in the US for a
similar position.

I think Blackberry has been a prime example of a company hit by this. Even
with the advantage of being literally next door to the Waterloo campus, most
students I know treated it as nothing more than a "safety" in their co-op and
grad job search. So in the end, the only students Blackberry ever had access
to were the ones who weren't good enough for the US companies, and the few
good ones that didn't want to go to the US for what ever reason.

I can't see this trend slowing any time soon, unless Canadian companies start
offering salaries competitive with companies across the border, rather than
just with their other Canadian neighbors.

~~~
Mikeb85
So true. Every one of my highly educated family members are in the US. I'm
going to be looking at jobs in many parts of the world, most of them not
Canada. There's nothing here right now, except sub par wages and ridiculous
house prices.

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derefr
Even though those charts are framed in economy-neutral terms (positions in
global indices, instead of absolute indicators), I still wonder whether
setting the comparison year to 2006—right before the beginning of a global
recession—has anything to do with the results. Did Canada, perhaps, slip all
the way to its current positions in 2007, and then simply not recover? There's
no way to tell from the representation used.

~~~
bryanlarsen
2007 was a relatively good year for Canada. Due to a combination of luck and
good regulation, our banks did not need bailouts. So Canada weathered that
recession better than our peers. Contrast that with now, where we are the only
G7 country in recession.

~~~
skylan_q
[http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/banks-got-114b-from-
governme...](http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/banks-got-114b-from-governments-
during-recession-1.1145997)

Our banks did get bailed out. Even more than the American banks on a per-
capita basis.

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wsh91
"[The author] was a senior policy analyst for Bloomberg Government and chief
speechwriter for the leader of Canada's Liberal Party."

Why does this belong on HN, especially given the relatively low resolution of
the data being presented (ordinal vs. cardinal)?

~~~
Canada
Because the Liberals are trying to win an election against the ruling
Conservatives right now.

------
z92
One has to consider the sharp fall in crude oil price with it. A worse
performing government might have shown better graphs had crude oil price been
rising.

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skylan_q
We've gutted productive jobs in central Canada. The federal gov't should have
taken a more direct role in energy policy at least in Ontario.

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cylinder
Why do people blame governments for these kinds of downturns?

The global oil price took a dive.

Sure, you want a diversified economy, but Canada has not many comparative
advantages other than resources and being adjacent to the US.

How do people expect Parliament to just make up successful industries out of
thin air?

Is there something stopping a Toronto resident from starting the next big
fintech startup? Is there something stopping Vancouver residents from starting
the next Salesforce?

Nope. Comes down to the culture.

~~~
Mikeb85
It's part culture, part lack of capital. In the US you can get funding for
just about anything. In Canada it's nearly impossible, and investors impose
ridiculous terms. Government grants help, but its not enough.

As for culture, you're right. Canadians go for the safe, sure bet. Get a job
as an accountant or (non-CS) engineer, and enjoy a safe, steady life in the
middle class.

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nitin_flanker
Well I am not a Canadian, but this news piece seems like part of the election
campaign. In more honest words,a paid news this seems to me.

~~~
jpatokal
Not just seems: it was witten by the chief speechwriter for the leader of
Canada's Liberal Party (= the opposition).

~~~
nitin_flanker
That's why. :}

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mynameishere
Five mentions of the word "conservative". Zero of "commodities" which, in the
form of their crashing prices, is 100 percent of what ails Canada. When
Bloomberg decided to publish opinion pieces was there any question it would be
nothing but shameless liberal propaganda?

~~~
Mikeb85
We're (Canada, to be clear) one of the richest countries in the world. One of
the most educated. One of the most cosmopolitan.

So why is it that we're limited to being a petro-state? We live next to the
biggest economy in the world, we're their largest trading partner (and vice
versa). They're growing ~4% a year and we're in a recession.

I don't know about you, but I'd like to think that we could do better. The
reason the conservatives are mentioned is that they've been in power for 9
years and there's an election coming up. Their only plan seems to be to deny
that there's a problem and hope people believe them...

~~~
YZF
But when they were in a recession and their banking industry had to be bailed
out and their housing market crashes and their unemployment hit the roof we
didn't get all of that.

It sounds like you want to have your cake and eat it.

I'm probably not voting for the conservatives but at the same time I don't
think they're to blame for the current situation. It's not like the Canadian
economy used to be more diversified when the conservatives weren't in power,
if anything it's the other way around. We're resource rich and naturally that
is something that influences the economy.

~~~
badsock
It's not as if Norway is tanking right now; it is possible to have resources
and not be a banana republic. But the Conservatives didn't make that
transition in Alberta during the decades of power that they enjoyed there, and
they didn't federally over the last decade - and they had the mandate to do it
(Canadians, contrary to all evidence, believe that the Conservatives are
competent stewards of the economy). They absolutely deserve blame here - this
current downturn in demand was not even unlikely.

With the Conservatives there's an unspoken deal: we'll cut social programs,
which will hurt, but the economic benefit will be worth it. Canadians in this
case neither get their cake (economic growth) nor eat it (social spending), so
what exactly have the Conservatives delivered?

~~~
YZF
Let's see, delivered: TFSA, income splitting (limited), lower taxes, balanced
budget, startup visa. At least that's off the top off my head.

Which social programs are we talking about here and what would not cutting
them have done to counter the current depression?

Like some other comment said the government can not create an alternative
economy. It can only try to product the right conditions. If you have a
startup in Canada your expenses are significantly lower than e.g. SV. There
are a lot of programs to help you. What more are you asking for? The weak
dollar, while sucks for me and you, is great for Canadian businesses that are
not resource related, but even when the dollar was at its strongest it was
still cheaper to start a business here.

------
f2f
It comes from a very ancient democracy, you see..."

"You mean, it comes from a world of lizards?"

"No," said Ford, who by this time was a little more rational and coherent than
he had been, having finally had the coffee forced down him, "nothing so
simple. Nothing anything like so straightforward. On its world, the people are
people. The leaders are lizards. The people hate the lizards and the lizards
rule the people."

"Odd," said Arthur, "I thought you said it was a democracy."

"I did," said Ford. "It is."

"So," said Arthur, hoping he wasn't sounding ridiculously obtuse, "why don't
people get rid of the lizards?"

"It honestly doesn't occur to them," said Ford. "They've all got the vote, so
they all pretty much assume that the government they've voted in more or less
approximates to the government they want."

"You mean they actually vote for the lizards?"

"Oh yes," said Ford with a shrug, "of course."

"But," said Arthur, going for the big one again, "why?"

"Because if they didn't vote for a lizard," said Ford, "the wrong lizard might
get in. Got any gin?"

~~~
raquo
I have a laugh every time I read this, but it's not a very good analogy for
modern politics.

You can't distinguish between good leaders and bad leaders quite as easily as
you can distinguish lizards and people. Especially when both kinds spend
millions of dollars trying to convince you that they're good and others are
bad. Not to mention that this story kinda assumes/implies that people would
somehow be better rulers.

We didn't get to the current system in a revolution. It's not like it was
designed to work well. All the laws that allow things like massive
surveillance, civil forfeiture, gerrymandering, lying in official capacity,
obvious corporate bribery ("lobbying", what a nice word), self-favorably
changing elections rules for the next election – all of this has been created
gradually over decades, often by different parties and people, each of whom
put self-interest ahead of their duty to the people and walked away from the
disaster at a leisurely pace.

Given complete lack of accountability of individuals properly positioned in
the state machine, we will not see any improvements in how the state works.
People everywhere are trained to think "if only we elect the Bernie Sanders of
the day, everything will change for the better", then either of the two things
happen – a) they get elected and don't fulfill even a tiny fraction of their
promises, if not the opposite, or b) they don't get elected ("oh well, let's
try again in 4-5 years").

Just to clarify, this is not a call to arms to overthrow the government or
anything. It's kinda too late for that to work. And that would be grossly
illegal. For some reason.

