
Experts envision two scenarios if the new coronavirus isn’t contained - ilamont
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/
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O5vYtytb
> All four, in particular HKU1, can cause pneumonia, and sometimes death. It
> is rare enough that researchers do not have good estimates of its prevalence
> or virulence, but two of the others have been better studied.

I wonder how many cases of influenza are confirmed via testing? How many cases
could be caused by coronaviruses? I know from experience that I've been to the
doctor with fever / aches / respiratory issues and been told I have the flu,
only to request a test that results negative. They typically don't test for
anything else.

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maxerickson
In the US, all of the reported cases would be confirmed by testing, and the
number of specimens tested is also published:

[https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/)

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yodsanklai
I found that the media aren't doing a very good job. It seems that every new
case leads to a new article, which isn't really helpful to understand the
spread of the virus, the possible scenarios, how are the countries prepared,
how worried should we be, what is the latest knowledge on the virus and so on.
The last think I need to know is that some taxi driver got infected.

I also notice that people aren't following recommendations. For instance, I
saw everybody wearing a mask at Singapore airport but I couldn't find any
official recommendation saying to do so, unless you're sick. So should I wear
a mask?

~~~
soared
[https://www.who.int/docs/default-
source/coronaviruse/situati...](https://www.who.int/docs/default-
source/coronaviruse/situation-
reports/20200208-sitrep-19-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=6e091ce6_2)

The last section on the last page has WHO’s recommendations for the public.

~~~
yodsanklai
"Avoiding close contact with people suffering from acute respiratory
infections. Frequent hand-washing, especially after direct contact with ill
people or their environment. Avoiding unprotected contact with farm or wild
animals. People with symptoms of acute respiratory infection should practice
cough etiquette (maintain distance, cover coughs and sneezes with disposable
tissues or clothing, and wash hands). Within health care facilities, enhance
standard infection prevention and control practices in hospitals, especially
in emergency departments."

Yes, I read this. They don't recommend to wear a mask. I'm quite surprised to
see masks everywhere nonetheless.

~~~
legulere
Wearing masks is the better meme. You don’t notice if someone regularly washes
their hands but you notice if someone covers half their face.

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kingkawn
Given the drop off of the infection rate growth relative to its spread earlier
it appears that the quarantine measures put in place by China are having some
success.

~~~
shock-value
This assumes that neither testing bottlenecking nor information suppression is
a factor with respect to reported numbers, which is far from certain.

~~~
kingkawn
I am not arguing that information isn’t being suppressed, but they’ve
essentially closed all public activity in China. There has to be an impact
from this beyond just censorship

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tcpip
Current Status Dashboard:
[https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

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clarry
What happened to the map? It's been gone for a while now.

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yasp
It works for me.

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johnchristopher
That site is fucking wicked.

Every time the space bar is pressed the newsletter form pops up over the
article.

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noahmotion
> It’s still possible that quarantines and travel bans will first halt the
> outbreak and then eradicate the microbe, and the world will never see
> 2019-nCoV again, as epidemiologist Dr. Mike Ryan, head of health emergencies
> at the World Health Organization, told STAT on Saturday. That’s what
> happened with SARS in 2003.

Is absence of SARS for 17 years really equivalent to never seeing it again?

~~~
SpicyLemonZest
“Never seeing it again” here contrasts with what happened for the 2009 H1N1
virus, which is now a recurring part of the annual flu season.

