
GA Tech Release Calculator to Estimate Risk of Covid-19 Exposure at US Events - mattsolle
https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/
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curlypaul924
AFAICT, the site computes the risk that at least 1 person out of a group of N
people will carry the virus. It does this by estimating the percentage of the
population likely to be carriers.

I think it overestimates the number of carriers. For SC, it is estimating 400K
carriers, or about 9% of the population. I think that estimate is absurdly
high. For comparison, SCDHEC is reporting 350K cumulative cases (58K
reported).

The number of carriers out in public is not the same as the number of active
infections. If you know you're sick, you're going to stay home and not be at
an event. So what we really want to know is how many of the active infections
are presymptomatic. We can do this by forecasting the number of cases over the
next couple of weeks, and work backward using a distribution for the
incubation period (very roughly: 0% 0-2 days, 25% 3-4 days, 25% 5 days, 25%
6-7 days, 25% 8-11 days). Then multiply by an under-reporting factor (which
may have been 20x or more early on, but is likely much smaller now that we
have widespread testing).

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mattsolle
More information about the project can be found here:
[https://cos.gatech.edu/news/georgia-tech-researchers-
release...](https://cos.gatech.edu/news/georgia-tech-researchers-release-
county-level-calculator-estimate-risk-covid-19-exposure-us)

The site appears to be suffering from the influx of users right now.

