
Self-Driving RVs, Not Cars, Will Bring About the True Paradigm Shift (2016) - splitbrain
http://blog.gadflyllc.com/self-driving-rvs-not-cars-will-bring-about-the-true-paradigm-shift/
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SwellJoe
The cost of an RV makes this out of reach of all but the most wealthy. A
"paradigm shift" doesn't come from luxury goods, it comes when the cost is
within reach of average folks.

The photos in the article are of RVs that cost $100k+ (for the little class B)
and $175k+ (for the big diesel pusher class A). People who spend $60k+ on a
luxury auto may not blink at that, but I doubt it's gonna be a mainstream
thing. It's a high margin industry, but even if we assume it becomes much more
widespread and competition increases and margins come down, it's still just
really expensive to put a whole apartment in a van/bus.

Also, RVs are a tremendous amount of labor to own even if you don't do the
driving. They need a lot more maintenance (if you're barreling down the
highway in your living room at 70MPH, shit's gonna break), maintenance is a
lot more expensive, and you have to deal with dumping and refilling tanks,
among other things. I just don't think everyone is going to want that as part
of their normal daily commute.

My sister's family tried renting an RV for trips, rather than flying for a
while (because their son liked my motorhome and wanted to try out that kind of
travel), but decided not to buy an RV and went back to flying or traveling in
their SUV and staying in hotels along the way when they wanted a road trip. As
with the boat they bought on a whim, it turned out to be more trouble than it
was worth to them.

I live in an RV and travel kinda full-time, and have done so for ~6 of the
past ~8 years, so I totally understand the appeal. I love having my whole
house with me when I travel, sleeping in my own bed every night, cooking in my
familiar kitchen, etc., but I can see how it's not for everyone. And, again,
the cost is prohibitive for a lot of people. If you live in the RV full-time
and don't have rent or a mortgage payment, it's entirely do-able on a modest
income...but, in _addition_ to a primary residence, it's a pricey endeavor,
really only within reach of pretty wealthy people.

~~~
grecy
Not everyone has a $100k+ class A motorhome. In fact, lots of us don't ever
want one.

The article applies perfectly well to a ~$30k Sprinter or similar van
outfitted with queen bed, sink, stove, tv, etc. There is no reason it will
cost significantly more than a Model 3 does now.

It makes perfect sense to be able to sleep/eat/cook/wash/read/watch TV
whenever the vehicle is moving, once you don't need to drive.

~~~
chewyland
Exactly. I paid 10 grand for my diesel Fiat Ducato. Put 60,000k on it and only
had to replace the battery, tires and brakes.

She's been to 27 countries and 100s of cities, villages and towns....yes,
100s.

From Chernobyl to London, to Southern Greece and Asian side of Turkey... and
everything in between.

~~~
grecy
Nice! I drove my $6k Jeep 65,000 kms through 16 countries, then sold it for
what I bought it for.

Now I'm driving my ~$35k Jeep through 30 countries in Africa, should be well
over 100k kms.

Have fun out there!

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justadeveloper2
I'm skeptical. Class A motorcoaches are already very complex beasts and the
people who operate them are in no particular rush to get anywhere from my
experiences in Montana and Idaho the last couple of weeks. They're mostly
retired people and they wander from RV park to RV park without much care. It's
a nice life in some ways. It would drive me batty to live in campgrounds after
awhile, but that's me.

My elderly parents bought a 38' Bluebird years ago. They used it some in the
first couple of years, but then their health problems began preventing them
from going anywhere and now it just sits. The thing is a monster, especially
when flat-towing a car behind it. Its huge size has gotten them into all kinds
of misadventures because it's like driving a semi around, you have to be
careful about bridges, grades, road width, parking, where you're going to turn
around, and on and on.

I keep trying to get them to sell it, but they are holding on to a dream that
will never be. The punchline is that they could have flown anywhere in the
world multiple times and stayed in 4-star hotels for what that stupid RV cost
and they would have had a much better time.

Anyhow, I just don't see a lot of people relying on self-driving RVs, sorry.

~~~
justadeveloper2
Why the downvote? Do you have any experience with the RV world? I'm telling
you--most of the fun is in _driving_ the thing and self-driving takes even
that away. People imagine they can hop in some self-driving motorhome and read
books and nap until they get to their destination and I'm here to tell you
that that is a highly unlikely thing to come to be for all kinds of reasons.

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crooked-v
I'm reminded of the Judge Dredd comics, where automated two-lane mega-RVs are
an established part of the setting, complete with a subculture of people who
have psychological problems if they live somewhere that's not moving most of
the time.

~~~
bane
There was an old, now defunct, satire magazine called "CARtoons" that once did
a piece on Earth's entire civilization being confined inside of large self-
driving cars all barreling down the highway and going nowhere in particular.
Everything was self-driving, the mall, restaurants, offices. It's hard to find
any scans of the magazine online, but archive.org has a few (not that issue in
particular) if you want to get a feel for them.

[https://archive.org/details/pulpmagazinearchive?and[]=cartoo...](https://archive.org/details/pulpmagazinearchive?and\[\]=cartoons)

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erikb
Had to stop at point three. There are just too many assumptions in there that
are already shown as incorrect by the world in general.

For instance, it's not true that with losing the personality of horses all
cars behaved the same. Why should that change when the driving part is
automated? There are so many different needs people try to fulfill with cars.
One might want to arrive quickly and electricity efficient. He may prefer
something like these lay-back bycicles. Another person wants some recreational
time with his family and he will prefer the RV version. Another person simply
doesn't have the funds to choose anything but still needs to get from A to B.
He may add a request to his Uber app, then a grey little box comes, and on the
way to B will put him as much as possible into lines with other box to
decrease air resistance, even though that will take more time in the end for
the customer.

In my experience more automation will end up providing more options not fewer.

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newman8r
I think a bigger paradigm shift is going to happen with off-gridding in
California with tiny houses and also RVs.

There's a perfect storm of technology and circumstance. Real estate prices are
soaring in the cities, solar power is cheap and getting cheaper, more people
are able to work off-site via the internet, there's beautiful california land
that can be had for thousands of dollars an acre.. the technology that powers
water pumps and wells is cheaper and more effective, self driving
water/food/garbage collection/road grading/ deliveries will soon be a reality.

~~~
xxxdarrenxxx
You forget the psychological aspect though.

I consider myself a loner, often sit alone at times when everyone is out.

I then went to live in the mountains for a while (due to work) sounded great,
had internet, a phone, a house 10 times as big with a godly view etc.

However, lonely at home is different from actual loneliness, and I was
surprised how much I missed something as simple as seeing a random person walk
on the street or a simple child shouting.

You cannot fathom this type of loneliness, unless you actually been in
isolation for a while, it changes you.

I think you can substitute most if not all social needs if you have a family,
but the paradox is, that people who grew up lonely, more often than not want
to live in the city, or at least a place with a certain size off community.

So you either move back "for the kids", or (as you see so often) kids leave
for the city as soon as they turn adult. Leaving you alone again.

This is not so much opinion, as it is the nature of the human social mind.

Anecdotally;

One of my friends grew up with a brother and a sister in the mountains. Their
parents moved there from the city before they were born, exactly for the dream
scenario off living that way. Now they are adults and he now lives in Madrid,
his brother in Toronto, his sister in Amsterdam.

Hows that for contrast?

tldr;

Grass is always greener on the other side. Isolation is experienced by many as
a golden cage.

~~~
newman8r
I spent some time out in the desert on a 5 acre parcel I purchased outright.
There were neighbors about a quarter of a mile away and I drove into town
every few days. I think complete isolation is probably a different story but
low population density doesn't necessarily mean you don't have as many
interactions - I actually had more contact with my neighbors out there than I
would in an apartment complex.

~~~
xxxdarrenxxx
True, I liked it though, but it wasn't populated all year through. When there
were some people in up season it was alright.

I just interpreted off-the-grid not just by it's mechanical definition, but
also conceptually.

~~~
newman8r
Yeah people interpret the term in different ways. Personally, I just consider
it to mean living on property that doesn't have utility easements on it.
Generally that will put you in an area with a lot of open space.

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rawnlq
There's an active "van dweller" sub on reddit:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/vandwellers/top/?sort=top&t=all](https://www.reddit.com/r/vandwellers/top/?sort=top&t=all)

I can't wait for a future where you can just set a destination (possibly
random), go to sleep, and then wake up to a different view each day:
[http://i.imgur.com/9T7NuhJ.jpg](http://i.imgur.com/9T7NuhJ.jpg)

~~~
trevyn
It's called yachting!

~~~
dTal
I think the implication was "without someone else driving / piloting".

~~~
radiorental
I think the counter point is that with gps, radar & autopilot... Yachting is
there today, to a degree.

~~~
christinamltn
You may not need to physically hold the wheel but someone does have to be
awake on watch at all times, even with radar & AIS.

~~~
dTal
Someone should tell the US Navy:
[https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/08/22/us_navy_4th_ship_mi...](https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/08/22/us_navy_4th_ship_mishap_of_the_year/)

I don't care how many fancy screens you have, _one_ person on watch with a
pair of binoculars should have spotted a bloody oil tanker.

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zenir
Clicked it because no idea what RVs are: Recreational Vehicles, meaning
vehicles with fancy interior, e.g. kitchen and so on

~~~
dTal
Ridiculously generic name. Skateboards are also recreational vehicles.

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Shivetya
twenty miles per gallon in a RV? Only on class B (van conversions) and even
then a limited subset of small ones. I certainly would not want to do a 12k
trip in one. Throw in that you only save over hotels if you don't stop
anywhere because many campgrounds can be nearly half the price of a hotel if
not similar depending on time of year.

then lets throw in reliability. there is so much more to break and none of it
cheap to fix as outside of appliances most of it is unique to the
manufacturer.

Class A (the big boys) are also a whole different world than B and C which are
based on vehicles which have crash test regulation and protection. Class A and
many Class C are sub 10 miles per gallon.

self driving long distance trucking is where its at. companies can absorb the
cost much easier than individuals. as for the comment about liability, yeah I
don't expect level 5 any time soon and even level 4 as an option.

~~~
derefr
From what I see around me, the preferred stopping place of the average modern
RV owner is not the campground, but rather the Walmart parking lot.

~~~
justadeveloper2
That's just where you are. Out west, RVs are the thing for traveling the vast
distances and there are tons of RV parks. It's a weird subculture.

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js8
I don't want to be a party pooper but I am kinda worried that self-driving
cars are an ecological disaster in the making. We already need to limit GHG
emissions, and switching to public transport is a good way to do it. However,
with self-driving cars, one of the main incentives for public transport (you
don't have to drive) is gone.

~~~
ghaff
Presumably once you have full autonomy in some number of decades, you'll also
have a lot more electric vehicles and renewables. That said, there's every
reason to think that you will see vastly more miles driven. What may encourage
transit is the increase in miles may make cars in urban cores that much less
tenable.

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dsfyu404ed
Even if all the high end stuff switched over tomorrow it would take a very
long time for this to trickle down. Look at class A and C motor-homes on
CList. The average age is probably 15yr +/\- some depending on how wealthy the
area you're looking in is.

Currently there is no fielded system to enable trucks pulling doubles to back
those doubles easily (cutting brakes would be enough, the hardware is already
there).

Currently major truck rental fleet operators like Uhaul and Budget do not buy
vehicles that make it very hard for people who have no business driving a
truck that side to do things like knock over light posts by taking a turn too
tight.

Even if the technology exists it's not at the cost/benefit point where it's
worth adopting for most use cases.

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chewyland
I use my campervan as my regular car, have for the last 6 years. Sleeps 6, has
a hot shower and a kitchen. Amazing way to cruise around and if you're bored,
park and have a nap.

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agumonkey
I was thinking about our relation to space and location. With ubiquitous
networking and self driving vehicles instead of all going to a spot, the spot
might move near us; or others ways fitting; and now you're at "work". That is
for information jobs.

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PeterStuer
Will the RV occupants, excluding the occasional bathroom trip, not be tied to
a chair with seat-belts? At least in my country seat-belts are required to be
worn by law by all car occupants.

~~~
ghaff
Not true in the US AFAIK. (It's on a state by state basis.)

~~~
gambiting
In the EU you can only have as many people in an RV as it has seats with
seatbelts(while it's moving, obviously) and everyone has to be sitting and
buckled up on the road. Anything over 3.5 tonnes(so most of these large ones
count, but the modified Mercedes Sprinter from the article probably doesn't)
requires a separate C class licence(so a licence to drive a truck basically).

~~~
ljf
Yes - but when/if we get safe(r) self driving vehicles will seatbelt laws
change?

~~~
gambiting
Presumably? Who knows? It's like trying to guess the weather. Personally I
think truly autonomous level 5 vehicles are at least 50-100 years away, so
wondering how will the laws change in half a century is a bit pointless.

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zelos
No mention of the fact that by the time autonomous cars are a reality then
internal combustion engines will likely be illegal as well? MPG figures are
irrelevant.

Is it realistic to have a large, economically viable, electric RV with
reasonable performance and a decent range? That's going to need a huge,
expensive battery, surely?

~~~
gambiting
I think there's literally zero chance that combustion engines will be made
straight up illegal, just like we haven't made steam engines illegal. They
will fade into obscurity and be only used on special occasions, mostly because
of raising fuel prices but also competitiveness from electric vehicles. I see
no problem in someone firing up a combustion engine to power a vintage car if
there is close to zero of them on the road. Even now you can see examples of
it happening with some really really old tanks, which are only started up
during shows and only if there is a tonne of funding for them, since they use
a few gallons of fuel just to start.

Once the fuel hits $20+/gallon there won't be any need to ban ICEs, they will
push themselves out.

~~~
dsfyu404ed
Why would fuel hit $20/gallon?

If demand is low it's not worth taxing (either for the money or just to punish
people for using it). It will just be harder to get.

The countries that could soak up so much fuel as to raise global prices like
that (China, India, etc) are also the ones where just making ICEs illegal is
more politically possible and have the biggest local environmental incentives
to do so.

~~~
gambiting
It might not hit $20/gallon wholesale, but it certainly can at the pump. Why
would a gas station owner continue selling fuel at $3/gallon if he gets ten
customers a day? A lot of gas stations will close, and those that won't will
have to charge more to stay open.

~~~
dsfyu404ed
They'll either go out of business or switch to selling something else. It will
be a niche like propane.

