

Where will all the web developers go? - babyshake
http://morethanseven.net/2008/11/30/where-will-all-web-developers-go/

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nostrademons
They'll have to do the same thing that everyone else who's worked in the
computer industry for a long period of time does: they retrain in the latest
and greatest technology every 5-10 years.

Some of people I've worked with have great stories about programming in PL/1,
on punch cards, and then dropping the box of cards and sending their program
sprawling across the tiled floor. Or writing a compiler in Fortran and having
to manage their own overlays because only one pass could fit in memory at the
same time. It's a world I can't really imagine, because it had mostly
disappeared before I was born. But they retrained in various minicomputer
assembly languages, and then C, and then C++, and sometimes Java, and one was
even learning Python last I saw him.

It's unrealistic to expect you'll never have to learn anything new in this
field. Heck, I've only been doing this for 8 years (with a 4-year break for
college) and I've had to reinvent myself twice already (from a Java Swing
programmer to a server-side webdev, and then again to a client-side JavaScript
developer, and may soon be leaving that behind for mobile). Software
engineering can be a harsh field like that. But the flip side is that you get
to work in an exciting, dynamic, wide-open field. If you want consistency, be
an accountant.

~~~
timr
That's the theory, but it's not what happens in practice.

In reality, how many older programmers do you know who are still coding
professionally? Of the guys I worked with just a decade ago, most have moved
into management, or out of the field entirely. If the people in my circle are
representative, coding isn't a profession with any longevity.

Of course, it makes sense: it's simply not realistic to expect that you can
continually re-invent your professional life on an eight-year cycle. Even if
you have the tenacity and mental skill required to do it, the drive eventually
goes away, because it's a futile game. You become a modern-day Sisyphus,
struggling to push your rock up a hill, only to watch a new generation of
people come along and push it back down. And given that our colleagues in
other fields -- law, medicine, engineering -- grow more respected with time,
it's not unreasonable to want something more.

~~~
nostrademons
Several, actually. About 20% of the programmers I've worked with have been
over 50, with the majority of the rest being in their 30s. Two of the over-50s
(I think one's close to 60 now) actually made it to VP of Engineering in
various companies and then dropped _back_ to a programmer role because that's
what they wanted to do.

The ranks do thin out, and I think programming is largely a young-person's
game. But the people who are really passionate about it when they're 20 tend
to be the ones that stick around for a lifetime.

And at least in Massachusetts, older programmers _are_ respected. Maybe it's
different in Silicon Valley; I've heard the culture is much more youth-
oriented there (one of the reasons it appeals to me, actually). But here
you're expected to pay your dues, and senior software engineers really _are_
senior.

~~~
timr
If only 2 out of 10 programmers are still doing it when they're 50, that's a
pretty pathetic retention rate.

(I realize that I'm extrapolating from an anecdote. The numbers are on par
with my own experience, however, and are part of what prompted my comment.)

~~~
ced
... assuming that the number of 20-year-olds going into programming 30 years
ago is the same as today.

~~~
mechanical_fish
Precisely. Computing has been changing rapidly throughout history, but the
advent of the PC was a _big_ change, because it created a massive cohort of
people like me who had encountered computers even before high school.

How old is that cohort? Let's see... if you were fourteen when the Altair came
out in 1975, today you would be... 47.

~~~
timr
There have been massive fluctuations in interest in computer science since the
1970s, so it's a poor assumption that 50-somethings would be under-represented
in the industry.

If programmers were staying in the field, we should probably see a
distribution where there is a good representation of 20-somethings from the
early 80s (the last major boom) -- those people would be around 40 today. I
don't see that; I see a lot of 20-somethings, and a few 30-somethings, and
it's been that way for as long as I can remember. There seem to be other
forces at work.

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bsaunder
Robotics and virtual worlds?

To me, the "web" (as in web developers), is really about UI programming
(html), system communications protocols (e.g. XMPP, SOAP, HTTP), and data
persistence (rdbms).

Earlier on (a decade ago), there seemed to be a lot of effort spent
implementing these three aspects (many home grown libraries for these three
parts). Now, each of these three aspects have many prepackaged frameworks to
make things much easier. IMHO there's nothing fundamentally different in these
protocols than their forefathers that ruled the systems in decades earlier.

I suspect there will be a transition to new UI mechanisms (virtual worlds),
data persistence systems (note the recent rise in alternative databases), and
protocols to support all of that (probably related to distributed computing
and SOA).

Robotics seems ready to support a large influx of software developers. This
field would almost certainly require a different architecture than the
traditional 'web' system as the inputs and outputs and real-time aspects seem
to be significantly different for this platform. Ergo more home grown
solutions initially with frameworks and toolkits to follow.

Ultimately, I think it will be more about AI and higher level information
architecture problems.

~~~
tocomment
This is really smart. I wonder why you had the bejezus downmodded out of you?
Well, I gave you a point.

You're right, new fields like robotics will require a lot of programmers.

~~~
ratsbane
bsaunder's comment makes sense to me. Programmers from the 90s who wrote
largely Windows desktop stuff had to reinvent themselves to be effective with
the web and we can expect to have to do the same every few years. It's really
not about Windows programming or web programming, it's about designing
structures to store and expose information and that much isn't going to go
away - there's only going to be more and more information. I don't see such a
great growth in robotics but I'm perfectly prepared to be proven wrong in
that. The line "Ultimately, I think it will be more about AI and higher level
information architecture problems" strikes me as spot-on.

We've still got rather a lot of work to do.

------
tdavis
I've been in this game nearly a decade and I have yet to see a decline in the
amount of knowledge still available to gain. Learning one thing seems to have
the tendency to present 10 more learning opportunities for my troubles. My
philosophy is, if I find myself in a job where there isn't much more I can
learn, it's time to find a new job. Or a new career. Or perhaps just a new
hobby.

I don't know many web developers who are strictly that. Most web developers
have other programming-related passions so in the event that they somehow
"master" web development, there are countless other forms of programming to
learn. Something tells me I'll be doing this for a long time. That, or I'll
become a Monk. I have always enjoyed the quiet and I hear they take vows of
silence.

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awt
Programmers have the potential to generate a lot of cash in a short period of
time, whether through consulting, full-time employment, or through the
development of their own software. While you can invest your time in learning
new skills, you can also invest your money in assets that are more stable than
various programming skills. You can buy property, businesses, stocks, and
funds that can support you later on should you tire of learning the most
marketable skills of the day. Perhaps this is where many of the web developers
will go -- somewhere else less stressful.

I do believe however, that attaining true expertise in one programming field
is largely transferable to another field, so perhaps time spent learning
programming skills holds it's value relatively well.

~~~
pietro
Doctors and lawyers can generate large amounts of cash, too, but they continue
doing so at an accelerating rate until well into their 60s.

~~~
awt
This is true, but there is more up front investment in both time and money
required to become either.

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thwarted
Not sure what this was really getting at. Replace "web developers" with nearly
any profession and the issue is the same. They'll deal with it the same way
everyone else has and does.

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mixmax
they won't go anywhere, they'll just grow up and realise that with wife, kids
and a mortgage they better go out and get a 9 to 5 job.

~~~
nostrademons
He's talking largely about web developers who already have a 9 to 5 job:

"Work seems to exist in lots of places; big in-house teams, small in-house
teams, agencies, startups and freelancers...I’m a little odd here in having
previously worked mainly for agencies followed by a stint of freelancing, and
now work for a decent sized in-house team at Global Radio."

Most web developers are professionals - they draw a salary while working for
someone else. The folks who're bootstrapping a webstartup while living in
their parents' basement are a pretty tiny minority, though perhaps
overrepresented here.

