
China is making electric buses cheap, just like it did for solar panels - jseliger
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/4/17/17239368/china-investment-solar-electric-buses-cost
======
nopinsight
China's goals for pushing electric vehicles very hard are multi-faceted and
strongly aligned with their long-term national strategies:

* Reducing their dependence on oil, one of few strategic resources which they do not possess in sufficient quantity and is subject, in large part, to the inclinations of foreign entities. Advanced electronics is another such resource on which they are also investing heavily to address the dependence.

* Building up technical expertise by accumulating experience in designing and scaling up production of affordable electric vehicles for the masses. (Unlike ICE vehicles, this is an area where no one has a huge lead.) It is clear that EVs are the future. The size of global automative industry is in the trillions and can provide jobs for a huge number of people.

* Improving urban air quality especially in tier 1 cities like Beijing and Shanghai to address the concern of talent who they try to attract (and attract back) from abroad as well as to address people’s demand and to reduce long-term public healthcare expenses.

* Helping with global warming which may affect cities like Shanghai in the future. But this is possibly not a primary goal. As another commenter mentions, other approaches like carbon tax could be more effective.

Governments in several developed nations should at least be concerned that, if
they invest insufficiently in EVs, the issue of unemployment and
underemployment in traditional manufacturing hubs could become more severe
than it is now.

~~~
dv_dt
Yup, it's too bad that politicians in the US open purse strings when you say
"national security depends on producing a leading fighter plane", vs "national
security depends on an infrastructure for energy independence and ecological
stability". China is basically investing in the second which yields nice
secondary and tertiary economic benefits while the US builds a next-gen
fighter with much weaker secondary economic benefits.

~~~
eddieplan9
Right. How come we don't learn anything from the same policy that resulted in
failures such as ARPANET and GPS.

~~~
sametmax
How much did the $2 trillions invested in the Irak War paid back ? I mean
beside the obvious benefit of parasiting the invaded country and suck all you
can out of it ?

Because $2 trillions (more than 60 millions of man year at minimum US wage)
invested in schools, research and clean energy would certainly have yielded
some interesting results.

It also has the small benefit of killing less civilians, not destroying the UN
trust and avoiding a few PTSD.

~~~
malloryerik
I agree with you generally, but I don't think you can say that the US was
parasitic in Iraq. I've never heard from any credible source that the US
looted the country and in fact Trump has often complained about that ("We
should have taken the oil!"). That said, companies hired to develop
infrastructure in Iraq, it seems, were highly parasitic toward US-supplied
development and defense funds.

~~~
sametmax
I don't understand the downvote. That's a polite and constructive comment.

I don't mean the US looted the country, but the reconstruction brings a lot of
gigs that the US are distributing to whomever they want.

------
avar
From the article:

    
    
        Economists are inclined to frown on
        the strategy of dumping giant piles
        of government money onto budding
        technologies that are in need of
        scaling up. They prefer market
        mechanisms, tech-neutral incentives,
        and nudges that maximize the free
        choices of market participants. In
        any economic model, such policies
        will perform better.
    
        And that’s well and good. But
        sometimes problems are big and
        urgent, you need scaled-up solutions
        quickly, and you just don’t have
        time to mess around.
    

I think the author is fighting a strawman here and not giving those economists
enough credit. What China's with solar panels and electric buses has been
narrow and centrally planned, they wanted to solve those problems in
particular.

Whereas the argument on the other side is that you should be equally
aggressive with something like a carbon or pollution tax, because then you
start solving the same problem in parallel across the entire economy instead
of just in some specific sectors.

What China's been doing right is having the political will do actually spend
money on the problem, as opposed to most of the west. But that doesn't mean
their method of doing so is optimal, if we were similarly willing to turn the
screws on via carbon or pollution tax I think we could make more gains than
they're making.

~~~
jillesvangurp
Government sponsored R&D can yield great results. The US sponsored an actual
'moonshot' last century, with well known results. That spawned a lot of
industrial activity.

What China is doing here is both smart and strategic and they have been doing
it for decades. Their solar activities can be traced back to the 1980s. They
are creating new export industries and stimulating economic growth by
investing in disruptive things where they believe they can succeed. Meanwhile
the US is pretending coal is fine, and the EU is pretending Diesel is fine or
that shifting from either to the euphemistically called natural gas is an
actual solution. Change is slow there because politicians are not acting to
provide the necessary incentive for industries to do what is needed. As a
consequence, there are several major industrial players at risk of
disappearing or being marginalized. This will hurt, a lot. Politicians are
afraid to do what is necessary. This creates the opportunity for China to take
over; they spotted that years ago; and they are now succeeding.

~~~
mywittyname
Maybe China's dominance will eventually dispel the myth that government is
always bad an ineffective.

------
nimos
I wish they would make self attaching electric/battery trolley busses. The
main lines on the streets in Vancouver aren't bad but the intersections are
such a mess with the trolley lines. You could min-max a system that combined
trolley lines with batteries and use much less of both. Put the starts above
bus stops so they don't have to attach at speed and you get to cover the
initial expensive acceleration too. Back of the envelop guess from
supercharger times is you would only need 10-20% of the routes actually
covered in lines to maintain battery charge.

It'd also be nice if more of the self driving companies would go after busses
first. Fixed routes seems like a significantly easier problem and you can
amortise all your sensor/electronic cost over a more expensive vehicle.

Both combined would pretty radically alter the environmental and economic cost
of public transportation.

~~~
Tyrek
Are trolleys more efficient than buses, pound for pound? Especially after you
factor in the capital expenditure needed to build out the trolley lines? I
find it hard to believe that a niche technology (trolleys) would be more
efficient overall (impact * quantity) than buses, which are _everywhere_.

Buses are probably an 'easier' problem, but it's much easier to pitch selling
self-driving cars to individual consumers rather than to government
procurement budgets. Also, I suspect the bus problem space introduces
additional issues such as <what to do when some asshole is parked in the bus
bay>.

~~~
hencq
You seem to be thinking of trams, while nimos is talking about trolleybuses,
which are buses that draw their power from overhead wires [0]. Specifically
they're suggesting that a hybrid option with batteries would reduce the need
for wires everywhere (just run on battery power), but would still allow the
buses to charge while connected to the overhead wire.

[0]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolleybus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolleybus)

------
nine_k
> _So it decided to make electric buses a thing. How? By dumping a giant pile
> of money on the problem, subsidizing the purchase of more than 350,000 BEBs
> in the following four years._

So, it's a typical state-financed infrastructure project.

Good thing if it pans out. If not — :shrug.jpg:

The problem with big governmental actions (especially of an authoritarian
government) is that when they are good, they are mighty good; when they are
bad, they are mighty bad. The same government that mass-buys electric buses
also continues to build the Great Firewall and total surveillance. To my mind,
they do both things for the same reason: for the good of the country, as they
perceive it, and because they can.

------
tuxidomasx
The fact that China's government moves so decisively in areas of technological
advancement may have to do with the fact that many of their government
officials have degrees in engineering, science, math, etc.

With so many of the Chinese officials having technical degrees, I can't help
but wonder if the United States government could benefit from technocrats in
Washington.

~~~
AFNobody
Technocrats lack the skill set to win elections where everyone lies
outrageously.

If they had such skills, they would be common American politicians. One if the
few benefits of China's collectivism is all the politicians have to share the
same reality, even adjusted by party propaganda. It allows technocrats to
operate effectively since they do not need to compete with outrageous liars.

~~~
WhompingWindows
Is it about lying outrageously? I grant that occurs in high-profile and
memorable cases, but is the average race for the house or a local seat
corrupted by outrageous lies? It just seems sensible and historically
continuous that those who study the law (lawyers) end up being the ones who
most frequently write the law. I am 100% for more STEM and humanities-oriented
law-makers, however I'm arguing technocrats lack specific knowledge of laws,
not of lying.

~~~
AFNobody
Do you genuinely believe that when many laws are written by interest groups
and past with little modification?

And yes, the average race us corrupted by outrageous lies. I have literally
never seen an election at any level that lacked outrageous lies by at least
one of the candidates.

------
adrianN
Meanwhile in Europe we're still in the prototyping phase. I feel like the
electric car market will belong to China and established European car
companies will become irrelevant over the coming decade. Right now they
seemingly spend more effort lobbying against change than keeping up with
innovation.

~~~
kaybe
The Deutsche Post (German Post) was so frustrated with the market offers they
started to develop their own electric vans.. (you can buy them now!)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutsche_Post#Electric_van_man...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutsche_Post#Electric_van_manufacturing)

~~~
netsharc
And Mercedes took a peek at their van by pretending to be a different company
and taking 1 for a test drive, but got caught because since it's German Post,
when the worker entered the address of this fake company, the system warned
them that it's an unknown company, could it be a shell corporation?

------
maym86
This is great. Countries and governments have the power to make the future
they want happen. Often we see that power used to stifel innovation and
subsidize failing incumbents to protect jobs.

Investing in technology research that'll be better for the planet (and China's
smog problem) in a way that actually brings prices down long term and not just
subsidize purchasing the technology in the short term is a good thing. I hope
this continues.

------
8bitsrule
Once again China is owning the future while the US twitters.

Hopefully, in that future, we can talk them into selling us a few of those
busses (with a BIG tariff piled on, of course). Which we -might- be able to
use, if we can afford to -charge- them.

------
Shivetya
It isn't all roses however, Los Angeles has had serious issues with their BYD
fleet [1].

I have posted many times the best place to put EVs is in the nations school
bus fleet. they have fixed routes, obvious and accessible places to charge at,
would introduce new generations to EV travel, and insulate school systems from
fuel prices. The negatives are higher cost of entry, poor cold weather
performance, and sheer number of buses to replace.

[http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-electric-
buses-2018...](http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-electric-
buses-20180520-story.html)

------
gamblor956
Maybe in addition to making cheap electric buses, they could make EBs that
don't break down every 20 miles?

Several transit agencies in SoCal purchased Chinese-made EBs on a trial basis.
None of them plans to continue to the trials due to the abysmal downtime
record and maintenance costs. Instead, they're looking at the more expensive,
but far more reliable American and Japanese EBs coming to market in the next
year or two.

~~~
jseliger
This is a very interesting comment, but have you links to any articles or
papers discussing the issue(s)?

~~~
gamblor956
There's the LA Times article about BYD already linked. The other big agency
that's pulling back on Chinese EBs is the Foothill Transit Agency, where I
have friends who are part of the team evaluating the EB trial.

There are a few smaller transit agencies that cancelled their plans to acquire
BYDs after the LA Metro's failed experiment. If they're not mentioned in the
article you'll have to deep dive into the Metro archives to find the
reference.

------
melling
China is adding a lot of electric buses. I remember seeing this story a few
months ago that gives it perspective:

[https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/04/china-is-adding-a-
lon...](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/04/china-is-adding-a-london-sized-
electric-bus-fleet-every-five-weeks/)

------
nonamechicken
In my state (Kerala, India), the government run bus company is currently
trialing Chinese electric buses. I think some of the metro trains are also
Chinese made.

[https://www.rushlane.com/kerala-state-transport-electric-
bus...](https://www.rushlane.com/kerala-state-transport-electric-
bus-12271797.html)

------
maym86
Meanwhile in the USA we subsidize big oil and gas and bail out failing car
manufacturers all while claiming market mechanisms and capitalism is the only
way to go.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
We also have a lot more electric buses on the road in the USA than before, at
least here in the Seattle area (well, we’ve always had them due to hills and
cheap hydro, but now they have batteries).

~~~
thebradbain
From what I've read, 99% of the world's municipal electric busses are
currently in Chinese cities. And I also believe Los Angeles has a bigger
electric bus fleet than Seattle?

[https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/04/china-is-adding-a-
lon...](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/04/china-is-adding-a-london-sized-
electric-bus-fleet-every-five-weeks/)

~~~
seanmcdirmid
I believe that is correct, though LA is a much bigger city than Seattle also.

------
AYBABTME
This article has a graph showing ~200$/kWh on Li-ion. Is this anywhere close
to reachable for hobbyist?

------
zeristor
How long before the Tesla bus?

~~~
ForHackernews
Elon Musk hates public transit, so Tesla will probably never make a bus.
[https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-awkward-dislike-
mass-t...](https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-awkward-dislike-mass-
transit/)

~~~
maym86
> “It’s a pain in the ass,” he continued. “That’s why everyone doesn’t like
> it. And there’s like a bunch of random strangers, one of who might be a
> serial killer, OK, great.

This just sounds incredibly entitled and out of touch. People are grateful for
public transportation despite it's inperfections because it's much better than
not having it at all.

~~~
thebradbain
I also don't understand the American idea that "only people who have no other
option take public transit."

I could easily afford a car – I _had_ a pretty nice car that I ended up
selling because I never used it – but I enjoy taking public transit, because I
hate traffic, finding parking, etc. If I can currently get along fine without
a car in Los Angeles, then maybe, with some more investment around the
country, other people would willingly ditch their cars, too.

~~~
maym86
Me too. Most issues people have with public transit aren't with the concept of
buses and trains but the lack of investment in making the system as good as it
could be. We don't need a new way of doing it we just need to invest in it.

------
grecy
Can anyone find details on the buses themselves?

Battery size, range, time to charge, etc. ?

~~~
nonamechicken
In my state (Kerala, India), the government run bus company is trialling
Chinese electric buses. These links have some info about the bus

[https://www.rushlane.com/kerala-state-transport-electric-
bus...](https://www.rushlane.com/kerala-state-transport-electric-
bus-12271797.html)

[http://www.newindianexpress.com/videos/videos-
nation/2018/ju...](http://www.newindianexpress.com/videos/videos-
nation/2018/jun/28/kerala-launches-electric-bus-service-104600.html)

[https://indianexpress.com/article/india/kerala-rolls-out-
ele...](https://indianexpress.com/article/india/kerala-rolls-out-electric-a-c-
buses-on-trial-basis-in-three-cities-5222436/)

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amelius
Are (Chinese) solar panels environmentally neutral yet?

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mtw
Cheap buses from China ? Wait until Trump puts tariffs into those!

