
Los Angeles County's use of predictive analytics on at-risk children - pavornyoh
http://www.psmag.com/politics-and-law/minority-report
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spdustin
Combine this with California's vast DNA database populated by their Newborn
Screening Program [0], add a dash of sale to third parties [1], and we're
truly venturing into scary territory.

[0]:
[https://www.cdph.ca.gov/programs/nbs/Pages/NBSProgrOVforPare...](https://www.cdph.ca.gov/programs/nbs/Pages/NBSProgrOVforParents.aspx)

[1]: [http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2015/11/09/dna-data-from-
ca...](http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2015/11/09/dna-data-from-california-
newborn-blood-samples-stored-sold-to-3rd-parties/)

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whatnotests
Predictive analytics can't even figure out what ads to show me.

I don't have any hope of it determining when a young person will become a
criminal.

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FussyZeus
To me this just means that certain kids will be treated like they're going to
become criminals, and because they're kids they will want to become criminals,
and then the people behind this farce will say, "Wow look at all the criminals
we predicted!"

Anyone else want to put down bets on the "at risk" kids here being right along
the racial lines?

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zardo
Well, a major risk factor for crime is poverty, and poverty is correlated with
race. I would guess that it will be along racial lines, and that will be
fairly accurate if we don't address the root cause.

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YeGoblynQueenne
The article asks "Should Los Angeles County Predict Which Children Will Become
Criminals?"

That is a bunch of hooey. We can't predict individuals' behaviours. We can't
even predict the behaviours of whole populations with anything approaching
reasonable accuracy. And even if we could somehow predict future personality
development we would still not be able to predict whether the person would
survive long enough to become the criminal they're predicted to become. Noone
in their sane mind claims to be able to predict things like accidents,
diseases, etc. a few years down the line.

Let's be absolutely honest here. This "predictive analytics" is no more
accurate than reading tea leaves. The people selling this technology are
charlatans, fair and square. They are obviously well aware that their tech's
ability to "predict" anything is no better than chance, but they are also
aware that they are selling it to people who can't tell the difference.

>> “They looked at these public-health models and said, ‘This isn’t rocket
science.

Well then it must be Common Sense.

~~~
Cieplak
It's outrageous that anyone might spend money on this (probably overpriced)
software instead of on resources that would actually support children's
development. That being said, I suspect that predictive analytics in this case
is just a buzzword for actuarial science [*].

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuarial_science#Actuaries_in...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuarial_science#Actuaries_in_criminal_justice)

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owlish
There was an interesting overview talk on predictive policing at 32c3:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIQ2Xhov7D4](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIQ2Xhov7D4)

