

The Five Stages of Collapse - stanley
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/47157

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tome
I'm all for a serious discussion of the energy crisis, but this author is
really pandering to the audience with his talk of the disappearance of "car
society, suburban living, big box stores, corporate-run government, global
empire, or runaway finance".

That's exactly what the kind of people who read Energy Bulletin want to hear.

~~~
ph0rque
Dmitry Orlov makes the parallel between the collapse of the Soviet Union and
the impending collapse of US. However, I get a feeling he's much more versed
in the Russian culture than the American one; as such, I doubt the collapse
(if it happens and doesn't turn into a strong but passing depression) will
happen as he predicts. Then again, who of us knows the future?

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lampy
So oil dropped almost by half since the article was written. I'm all for
development of new energy sources, but just because my family's person-car
ration is close to 1 doesn't mean the world will end if gas becomes expensive
again.

I think I remember reading another article by this author where he somehow
implied that Soviet Union's population was better prepared for financial
collapse (due to resourcefulness or whatever). Having lived through that mess
myself I disagree. That country had screwed up economy and when fit hit the
shan everyone was out for himself and the country was pretty much torn apart
and sold by pieces down to tools at factories and telephone wire.

Russia was back in stone age until oil prices picked up. Now they seem to be
repeating the same mistake, according to the author, where their economy
struggling once that very oil is so cheap.

~~~
jerf
Listing all the relevant differences between the Soviet Union and the United
States in culture, finances, and politics would literally require a book, or
even a series of books. I'm all for learning from history, but there's just so
many differences between the two that I'm completely unconvinced there's a
useful comparison to be drawn.

Which isn't to say there won't be a collapse. Perhaps it will even be worse.
I'm simply saying I don't think _this_ argument has much value.

Certainly, if what he described was happening, rather than a run-of-the-mill
recession, I would expect commodity prices to be rising, not dropping.
Dropping commodity prices are a good thing for the economy; they were probably
credit-inflated too.

Not to mention this whole "five stages of collapse" is really just an ass-
pull, something this guy said to make it sound like he wasn't just making it
up as he goes. See also: The entire self-help book industry, with six-step
thises and twelve-step thats.

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Eliezer
Not Hacker News. This is low-quality fearmongering, more appropriate to Reddit
or even Digg.

~~~
ph0rque
I understand your sentiment, but let's not make Digg/Reddit a fearmongering
catchphrase, like the word "communist" in the 1950's, or the word "terrorist"
of today.

~~~
lionhearted
Reddit scares the hell out of us, because Reddit used to be as good as Hacker
News, and slowly... oh so slowly are lower quality submissions coming. And
then slowly that'll prompt lesser caliber people to enjoy participating.
Who'll submit more lesser caliber stories, and then HN is a wasteland full of
"puns" and just outright goofyness.

The average American isn't becoming a terrorist, or in any danger of
terrorism. Hacker News will sink to the level of Reddit unless it's actively
fought by the culture and leadership here.

~~~
ph0rque
I understand your concern, but there's a key difference between reddit and HN:
one is general news the other--hacker news. So you should really be comparing
reddit to CNN or other mainstream news organizations. In that sense, I think
reddit is still a better source, even if it is very biased.

My initial point was: we shouldn't call a particular story redditlike as a
catch-all Bad Thing(tm).

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Prrometheus
The human brain, lacking infinite computational capacity, invents simplifying
abstractions to understand the world. These abstractions increase the realm of
human thought, but they also lead to errors when the simplification smooths
out details that cause important differences between two events supposed to be
of the same class.

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baguasquirrel
He can't back up any of his assumptions (e.g. that oil is going to crash in
the timeframe required for a "collapse"), but the last year or so of activity
should suggest that something like this will probably happen on a smaller
scale. As such it makes for a useful thought exercise.

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jonas_b
Isn't it funny how conspiracy theorists always seem to lose the bigger
picture. He compares the meltdown of a command economy that a had oppressed
its own people for better part of a century with a recession i the US,
arguably the worlds strongest economy.

~~~
kingkongrevenge
He's comparing two over-extended empires. It is very far from absurd to class
the United States as an unsustainable empire.

------
agentbleu
You're all a little young I suspect to know about the infamous "Limits To
Growth reports" conducted by MIT CS grads in the late sixties commissioned by
the Club of Rome.

They constructed computer models of population growth expectations against
energy resources, waste, production etc. They concluded that unless society
changed its ways DRAMATICALLY then a collapse would occur which would be
unavoidable and would wipe out a large percentage of the worlds population.

The reports were widely dismissed at the time by the main stream media and
other 'experts' however, many of their predictions are manifesting before our
eyes as we speak, if not a little latter than originally expected.

Those that decry that technology will save us (and it may well do but we do
have to create it first) the main unavoidable problem is capitalism =
exploitation = waste / population which is increasing because of the high
level of fossil fuel energy available / ( which is rapidly diminishing).

If any bright sparks here have a solution to this mathematical problem then I
will be impressed. The reason I personally got into programming was to try and
make some impact on this problem. Yet all I see here (which I don't blame you
for) is naive youngsters who are deluded and indoctranated into believing that
success is starting a startup and exiting with 1M+ cash in the bank. To me
this = FAIL.

Those that were really smart would have an understanding of the unavoidable
mathematical problems really facing us (which are not written about in our
favorite math books) and would have a broader knowledge than that spouted by
your ivy league universities.

Those bright sparks would be able to demonstrate 1) an understanding of the
problem, 2) a deep understanding of the math involved, 3) an interest in
solving the problem, 4) the capacity to think outside of the box and not
follow the herd, 5) ultimately a working theoretical alternative which would
be more robust than the current math which is the algorithm behind current
capitalism (or what ever you want to call it, democracy etc.).

For those that think capitalism and democracy is the best system we have, do
not bother replying! Your comments will be as limited as your 'intellectual'
capacity and you would be better served spending your time on your fab new
startup!

