
Where to Live to Avoid a Natural Disaster - robg
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/05/01/weekinreview/01safe.html?hp
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tectonic
What about the supervolcano[1] risk around Yellowstone, or the megatsunami[2]
risk from intraoceanic volcanic islands on either cost or near Lituya Bay in
Alaska[3], or meteors? Where do you go to avoid meteors?

[1] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supervolcano>

[2] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megatsunami>

[3] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1958_Lituya_Bay_megatsunami>

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ambiguity
From what I remember, if the volcano at Yellowstone does erupt, pretty much
everyone will be screwed.

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dfischer
Is there any speculation on how much of a forewarning we'd have if it were to
erupt?

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tshtf
The lowest risk cities in western Oregon or Washington are extremely
questionable. The Cascadia Subduction Zone
(<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_subduction_zone>) could easily produce
magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, and the next rupture there could be devastating
for the Pacific Northwest.

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michaelochurch
Agreed, especially since there was a red patch in the Missouri for earthquakes
because of New Madrid, a similar low-frequency devastating quake generator.

The Northeast has a decent balance. Our natural disaster is the winter storm,
which are harmless in comparison and, at least, pretty afterward.

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locopati
and the rare hurricane if you live on the coast

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killerswan
I think the tornado danger is exaggerated. In the Nebraska and Iowa areas, at
least, there are good warnings systems and if you have a basement you'll fine
even if a big one wrecks your house. Whenever you hear this sound [1] just
grab your family and a beer and chill out in the basement for a bit!

The danger is if you live in a trailer park without shelter, on land that has
a history of tornadoes... The actual danger seems to be a problem of poverty.
:(

[1] <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cdn5Qo4kEWQ>

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mkr-hn
I've heard that sound two times in my life (in Georgia). Only one was a
tornado anywhere near structures and people. We get thunderstorm and tornado
watches every time a storm moves in.

The odds of a tornado occurring are slim already, and the odds of being
impacted by it even slimmer. I think it helps being right at the edge of the
tornado risk map where storms are already weak.

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derefr
Now do this for the whole world, and multiply these stats by the arability of
the land and the necessity of climactic intermediation (i.e. thick
clothes/central heating/air conditioning) and you get a map of "where everyone
would immediately get up and move to, if they were rational agents and there
were no political considerations."

Aside: I've had a hypothesis for quite a while that the land most fought-over
in land wars (or holy wars) has extremely low value on such a map. I'd love to
see the data to confirm/refute that.

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die_sekte
See: <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebensraum>

Caused the eastern front of WWII. The Ukraine and Kazakhstan have extremely
fertile soil. Holy wars are maybe fought over useless land, but the deadliest
military campaign ever was fought in large parts because of good soil.

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zwieback
That's funny - I saw the link in HN and before clicking on it I thought to
myself "simple, Corvallis Oregon, where I live." And sure enough, I was right.

When we moved here from California I was struck about how much people in the
Willamette Valley love to talk about how the "Big One" will come and how
there's going to be a big Tsunami. Well, maybe, but in the meantime it's been
the most temperate climate you can imagine. The worst thing we get is the
occasional ice storm but nothing like our neighbors in Portland.

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codebaobab
Funny, we were chatting about this in the office yesterday...

But I don't see wildfires in their list of disasters.

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Lmclean
Northern Europe......

