
Show HN: Is Yield Curve Inverted? - iamwil
http://isyieldcurveinverted.com/
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cbanek
While it's true the 10 year - 1 year spread is negative, usually when you're
talking about yield curve inversions, the duration people focus on is the 10
year - 2 year. That's not currently inverted, but very shortly it was, which
kind of triggered all the news stories.

[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y)

The 10 year - 3 month spread has been negative since May when the last big
stock market selloff was.

[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M)

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toomuchtodo
Iamwil: can you run this backwards for as far back as data exists?

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iamwil
Yes. I just didn't display all the data. I think it goes back to the 90's or
so.

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quickthrower2
What does it mean if yield curve is inverted?

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iamwil
Typically, people that lend out their money for longer periods of time want a
higher interest rate for lending out that money, than if they lend out at a
shorter time frame.

The yield curve inverts when the interest rate you get for lending long term
bonds (~10 years) is less than the interest rate you get for short term bonds
(~1 year). Every recession in the last 8 or so recessions had been predated by
a yield curve inversion, so people take it to be a predictor of a slowing
economy now.

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billconan
usually after how long into a recession will the yield curve reverse back? And
how will that predict an economic recovery?

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yesimapro
Site is down

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iamwil
Just takes a little bit to load if someone hadn't hit it in a while.

