
Yanis Varoufakis resigns despite referendum no vote - ivank
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/06/greek-finance-minister-yanis-varoufakis-resigns-despite-referendum-no-vote
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wsc981
It's sad that certain creditors didn't want to negotiate with Yanis anymore.
To me, it seems he's a true hero of his nation, putting the needs of his
people before the needs of the creditors. I wish politicians in my country
(The Netherlands) would be more like him. Our politicians on the other hand
seem to do anything the EU tells them, possibly in hope for a cozy, well-payed
EU job in the future.

Yanis will wear the creditors' loathing with pride:
[http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/07/06/minister-no-
more/](http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/07/06/minister-no-more/)

~~~
bbv-if
Indeed, a true hero who wrecked his country and resigned.

~~~
gonvaled
You can see it like that.

You can also see it like this: he gave voice to the people, and accepted to
step aside when pressured by the powers-that-be, instead of stubbornly
clinching to his post.

He is no politician. We need more of those.

~~~
cxromos
And you can't win elections by promising not to pay back your debts and accuse
everyone else of trying to destroy the democracy. New government does not mean
you can erase your debt. And the fact that you won the elections by telling
fairytales does not mean that someone else will pay for the fairytale. That is
borderline insanity. Democracy is responsibility of the successive government
for the deeds of the previous one. May that be debt or a warcrime.

~~~
alextgordon
Sovereign debt absolutely can be defaulted on, just like any other kind of
debt. The risk of default is priced into it.

Greece is in a situation where there is no possible way that it can ever pay
back its debts. _Saying that_ does not make you "borderline insane". Quite the
opposite.

~~~
jacquesm
> Greece is in a situation where there is no possible way that it can ever pay
> back its debts.

Other countries have managed to claw themselves out of bigger holes than this.
It _does_ take a much more hardline stance with respect to payment of taxes
and reduction of the size of the state apparatus, what Greece has done is in
many ways a simple strategy of postponement of action until the consequences
were extremely bad for all of Greece, in particular the weaker parties.

I don't blame the Greeks for their 'no' vote, but it would have been a lot
better if they had had their 'French revolution' a decade earlier. Right now
there is no good or easy way out of the mess any more and the Greek economy is
about to collapse.

This is not a situation where there are winners, only losers and the biggest
losers are the people partying in the Greek squares today. It will take a
while before that reality sets in though.

~~~
vidarh
> Other countries have managed to claw themselves out of bigger holes than
> this.

Do you have examples of _any_ that have done so without extensive debt relief?
I can't think of any.

IMF's most optimistic numbers (which rests on wildly unrealistic assumptions)
indicates it would take decades, and they've made it very clear that the debt
isn't sustainable at all. When their past attempts at forecasting the Greek
situation has consistently understated the problems, that ought to be pretty
sobering.

> Right now there is no good or easy way out of the mess any more

Maybe not "good or easy", but substantially less damaging than what's been put
on the table: Drastic debt cuts coupled with short term financing, coupled
with reforms that _aren 't_ tied at reducing Greek government spending, or at
least replaces any spending cuts with investment elsewhere (as the spending
cuts have been a driver for the drastic contraction of GDP).

~~~
jacquesm
This is all true _now_ , but it wasn't when this whole circus started.

As for the present my personal preference would be to simply forgive _all_
debt and to ask Greece (politely) to exit the Euro and not to apply for re-
admission until they have the house in order.

That's not going to be a very popular option but it would give the Greeks a
fighting chance to solve this the Greek way.

Already a large chunk of the debt was written off (in 2012) so there is some
precedent for that but back then the motivation was a different one (to keep
Greece in the Euro at all costs and to offload the private sector problems
onto the public one).

~~~
maxerickson
If you are willing to forgive all the debt there probably isn't much reason to
kick them out of the Euro. I'm not watching the situation all that carefully,
but I expect that kicking them out would further damage their economy, whereas
if you don't kick them out, individual actors can just note that lending money
to Greece isn't a good idea (so it shouldn't be the case that they are able to
quickly build up a new untenable debt).

~~~
jacquesm
It would give the power to self-determine these issues back to the Greeks, and
it would forestall any re-run.

~~~
maxerickson
I don't think it is clear that an exit would forestall a re-run any better
than their already ruined credibility .

(another way to look at it: the interesting question on the table is how much
of their existing debt the Greeks are going to repay, future debts aren't
going to be a serious problem in the short term regardless of what happens)

I also (while not thinking my opinion is worth much) think that the economic
damage from an exit would likely not be worth the ability to self determine
further ruinous fiscal policies.

------
dang
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9836991](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9836991)

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anonbanker
This is the same Yanis Varoufakis that left Valve Software so he could take on
this role. Hopefully, gaben will allow him to return so he can work on
something meaningful again.

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robogimp
I must go now...my planet needs me...

------
lesingerouge
I have a bit of a science fiction scenario. Bear with me for a little bit.
Let's suppose for a bit this approximate series of events was the actual goal
of Mr. Varoufakis and company.

Why would they want this and who would want to risk the fate of an entire
country and their own reputation on a "gamble"?

Because they started the negotiation game with a huge disadvantage and there
was no way that they could bring something new to the table. So Tsipras and
Varoufakis chose to "play the dumb communist" scenario that everyone was
painting, stretch the canvas a bit and get new offers on the table and start
with a different negotiating position.

This hypothesis, which I will check the following days, proposes that the
Tsipras government and Varoufakis knew and understood very well the nature of
the political and economical forces that pushed on them from outside of
Greece. Knowing those forces and playing on the predictions laid out by the
other side (Germany was already unhappy after Syriza won, expecting to have a
difficult time negotiating with them) they followed to the line the
"predicted" course. Difficult negotiations, huge differences in views, big
political declarations and discourse, etc. The goal in the end was simple
enough: get a cleaner slate.

Both the turbulent negotiations, with Varoufakis playing the evil marxist
scapegoat, and the referendum, after a week of bank closures, were used as a
ruse to lead the European leaders through to a "clean slate" phase. It was a
very risky move, but I believe that the various contradictory signals that
Tsipras sent just before the referendum confirm that it was a game. Like poker
player that accidentally reveals his weakness just before he pulls a full
house. The resignation of Varoufakis today is the next piece in their
scenario: just take out the nasty opinionated communist and all the european
parties will clearly feel more relaxed. I believe that this move was planned
from the beginning and Varoufakis was used to "stir up" the pot a bit, while
apparently being discarded as "peace offering" after a while.

So what was gained by this daring gamble? First of all, the markets were
calmed. The negotiations were so desperate from the start, given the position
of the two parties that everybody was sure of the Greek default. Now, with the
financial markets accepting the default event in itself, any new deals on the
table will have to take this fact into consideration. It's not "looming"
anymore, it is here and it is indisputable. Second, the situation now allows
for a much needed debt haircut. Refinancing is all fine and dandy, but
everybody agreed that the debt could not be sustainably repaid. So now
everybody is suddenly ok with the debt reducing. Third, the Tsipras government
kept its word with its electors. They "fought" valiantly for the good of the
people. Actually with the cards they got dealt by the previous government,
they played quite a good game until now. And their general appeal has
definitely risen from 36.3% (plus affiliated parties) to a 61% (as shown by
the referendum). Fourth, the european hard-liners were blind-sided and the
rules for the negotiation were changed. The deal before this referendum was
"behave or we will strangle you". Now, it's quite a useless threat given the
actual default. So Tsipras most certainly will be able to have better terms.

Sorry for the long post, had a bit of thoughts to get out. :D

~~~
caoilte
They haven't been "playing the dumb communist" they've been smeared with it by
their own media, by strategic "leaks" from EuroGroup meetings by "analysts" in
International Finance and by the International Media which largely swallowed
the smears time after time.

Not that they don't make mistakes. The problem is that they are not held to
the same standards as members of the EuroGroup and Parliament. It ought to be
fine for Varoufakis to talk about issuing IOUs, for the same reason that it is
fine for the head of the European Parliament to say that Greece should be
expelled from the Euro if it voted no.

There is an asymmetry of power. The EU holds the purse strings and so Greece
cannot complain, whatever they do. Greece needs a bailout and so any mistake
that its leaders make will be used as a bargaining chip against them. You see
the same relationship in negotiations between Iran and the P5+1, between Hamas
and the Quartet and between every black man on the street in America and any
policeman that they meet.

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gii2
Well, he already did his job. Greece is rolling down the slope...

~~~
kenOfYugen
Greece has been rolling down the slope for the past 5 years. Hating on a man
for years of a country's peril does not offer constructive criticism.

Maybe you should know the data before you blame a man. How about some charts
and numbers from December 2014:
[http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11283931/Nine-c...](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11283931/Nine-
charts-showing-why-Greece-has-to-leave-the-euro.html)

