
Japan Shrinks by 500k People as Births Fall to Lowest Number Since 1874 - pseudolus
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/24/world/asia/japan-birthrate-shrink.html
======
mikekchar
Japanese population is a little over 126 million. 500k is a roundoff error --
literally. In reality the population is not growing. The issue is more that
the population demographics is moving upwards in age. The big place I see a
problem is with the ageing farmer population. Also, the demands on the
pensions system are going to peak. Living in Japan, I'm quite worried about
the pension system. They already "lost" a whole bunch of records and asked
people to provide proof of employment over their lifetime or risk losing
benefits at employment. They've pushed retirement age from 60 to 65 and I
reckon they'll push it further.

But it's all good. We'll have some pain and the rest of the world can learn
from it. We all need to do this and it's better that there is at least one
country that's going through it now. I expect scandals and hardship, but in
the end this country will be better off for it -- like the world itself.

------
jl6
A gradual reduction in population sounds like exactly what the world needs.

~~~
jillesvangurp
Exactly, figuring out how to increase happiness without growing the population
exponentially, would be major progress. It has some hard limits in terms of
resource consumption and distribution.

~~~
pbjmj
the government and conglomerates will not like this

~~~
georgeplusplus
I’d like To expand on this, Economic models are built on growth. To achieve
growth there are three ways, increase the demand, increase the consumers, and
increase productivity/efficiency.

The world economy has been expanding rapidly in party because there are more
consumers brought about from an increase in population.

You need to fix the dependency on an exponential growth model before you can
hope to have a reduction in population and I’ll take it a step further and
this needs to be done to solve climate change.

------
koheripbal
Imagine if artificial wombs were possible. The government could control birth
rates simply by producing children like they print money to increase
inflation.

~~~
programmarchy
You’ve obviously never raised a child. The problem isn’t a lack of wombs or
the first 9 months of childbearing.

~~~
neetrain
As Japanese, I can say they are a few of the problems too. You can't take
maternity leave most companies (when you're pregnant, it usually is time to
quit), or you're not allowed to be pregnant until none of your coworker is
pregnant.

> Case of child care worker chided for getting pregnant before her 'turn' not
> uncommon
> [https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20180402/p2a/00m/0na/00...](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20180402/p2a/00m/0na/003000c#)

~~~
fjoetna
Reading this makes me sad and a little bit angry. It is ridiculous that a
company/employer might suggest your right of getting children. In a different
context this would be considered a joke or something you would read about in a
dystopian book, but instead it's happening in one of the most developed
countries in the would.

~~~
0ldblu3
You are conflating economic development and social development. Go check out
some youtube channels from westerners living in Japan and you'll see that the
economic development has had a cost. I don't really know how to define it
because it's their society and I can't put my American values on it, but the
salaryman thing has a cost. This birthrate issue is probably it. Will Japan
eventually collapse because of it?

------
nine_zeros
Wow, no number of immigration can replace this. This is too little too late.

~~~
Baltor2019
Immigration is not to replace, it is to substitute. So eventually Japan will
be full of people again. Just of different culture and level of civilisation
likely.

~~~
nkkollaw
But then it wouldn't be Japan anymore...

~~~
nine_zeros
What would you rather have? A civilization and culture extinct or a a
civilization that adapts with newer people, creating a blend of the future?

~~~
nkkollaw
Ceasing to be Japan would equal to have the culture be extinct so it's
obviously not a solution.

Even if it wasn't (like you seem to argue), I would rather realize than in 10
years many jobs will be automated, so you won't need as much manual labor and
Japanese will be just fine.

