
What happens when a Pacific island upsets China - tomohawk
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pacific-china-palau-insight/empty-hotels-idle-boats-what-happens-when-a-pacific-island-upsets-china-idUSKBN1L4036
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ericjang
Hypothetically speaking, if one is opposed to some or all aspects of the "One
China" doctrine, what can one do locally/globally to effect change? Or is the
annexation of Taiwan a near-certainty via the forces of economics?

~~~
skh
I believe that Taiwan will eventually merge with the mainland. Perhaps via the
two-systems one China route that Hong Kong did. The claims of mainland China
on Taiwan are understandable and I don't fault them for their perspective on
the issue.

Is the United States really willing to go to war with China over this? I don't
think so. Are Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines willing
to go to war with China? China's desire for Taiwan far exceeds the willingness
of others to fight them over it. This is especially so since China is taking
the long range approach. They aren't going to outright invade Taiwan. It's
akin to a death by a thousand cuts. Slowly, but surely, they inch their way to
control.

~~~
tsuabing
I am a Taiwanese millienial and I am deeply offended by this comment. Why
would you say that the claim is understandable? ? Taiwan has been an
independent democratic country with its own military, economy, culture,
government, rules of law, and international relations for over 50 years. The
current Chinese government has never ruled over the island.

Not to mention most Taiwanese currently support independence, especially the
young generations. Recent polls have come in around 70-80% of Taiwanese people
believing they are 'taiwanese' and in no way associated with China.

China is a big bully and a disgusting entity which keeps trying to write
Taiwan off the international stage, via threats to businesses. Recently they
were so petty, that when the president visited a bakery (85 degrees) in LA,
they were so furious that they wanted the Taiwanese bakery to say that they
are 'Taiwan, China'. So fucking ridiculous. Good thing they won't be able to
take Taiwan militarily for a long long time. It's a heavily fortified island
preparing for such an invasion for 50 years, and history has shown that rarely
has any island invasion been successful, especially since China has such a
weak military that has never seen real actions.

The world is starting to see the ugly sides of China. And thank god. The
Chinese government is horrible and needs to be reduced to irrelevance in the
world stage.

~~~
graeme
You are not in a strong position, unfortunately. The rest of the world broadly
agrees that China and Taiwan are the same country. You don't have
representation in the UN, or formal recognition from most countries.

Your biggest advantage was economic. But China's growth means you are now tiny
compared to them, and you have a reduced ability to pay other countries for
diplomatic recognition.

Unlike the poster you replied to, I think this is deeply unfortunate, and
deplore the fact that China wishes to gradually take you over. But, the
strategic outlook is bleak: your western allies share of world GDP and
military power shrinks every year, and the US has turned fickle. China
meanwhile outpaces your growth every year, and is getting more and more power
over countries that neighbour you.

I don't think it would ever be an invasion, but rather a slow strangling, and
a carrot of union offered. And it would be a long term project.

~~~
tsuabing
Taiwan may be small economically, but we are still important strategically to
the western world's alliance against China. The island act as a unsinkable
carrier.

You have your facts wrong. Chinese GDP is fake and growth is declining every
year. I have many Taiwanese manufacturer friends that sees the declining
Chinese sales, exploding debts, and rising wages, and have moved most of their
factories out of China. Meanwhile US, Europe and Japan is stronger than ever
after the 2008 crash.

~~~
fspeech
> but we are still important strategically to the western world's alliance
> against China. The island act as a unsinkable carrier.

Don't you see that would be same argument why China would want Taiwan back?

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amaccuish
> There is an ongoing discussion about China weaponizing tourism

And America tried the same tatic with Cuba and many other countries. It's an
effective tatic. China isn't doing anything new that hasn't been done before.

~~~
tomohawk
Cuba's communist government nationalized property from people and corporations
without any compensation.

It still illegally holds these properties today.

The communist Cuban government acceded to hosting Soviet nuclear missiles
pointed at the US. This almost caused a nuclear war.

The US embargo was based on these and many other things.

It is hardly a comparable situation.

~~~
amaccuish
> Cuba's communist government nationalized property from people and
> corporations without any compensation.

That's not anyone else's business. Countries should be free to a certain
extent to act as they wish. It's not for America to decide what political
system another country should have.

>The communist Cuban government acceded to hosting Soviet nuclear missiles...

I think you skipped a key part of history usually referred to as "Bay of Pigs
Invasion"...

~~~
tomc1985
> That's not anyone else's business. Countries should be free to a certain
> extent to act as they wish. It's not for America to decide what political
> system another country should have.

Until you nationalize American-owned businesses, then yes it is.

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joe_the_user
Palau is a great place but also a place that doesn't have trouble courting
international controversy. They were among the only countries willing to take
ex-prisoners from Guantanamo Bay and were willing to refuse some large tourist
hotel investments.

As one of the best destinations for scuba and snorkling in the world, I think
Palau will be fine despite Chinese sanctions.

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rb808
Elsewhere [https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/news/cup-of-coffee-
costs-2...](https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/news/cup-of-coffee-
costs-24120-million-for-firm-facing-china-backlash/ar-BBLZZdR)

> Gourmet Master Co. slumped 7.5 percent in Taipei trading Thursday, wiping
> $120 million from its market value, after a newspaper in China published
> calls to boycott the chain for hosting the Taiwanese leader at a store in
> Los Angeles.

also [https://www.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-airlines-being-dragged-
chi...](https://www.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-airlines-being-dragged-
china-093525528.html)

> On April 25, a letter from the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC)
> landed on the desks of 36 international air carriers. In it, the CAAC
> reminded readers that on February 27 the Chinese government had instructed
> airlines to review their websites, and remove any material that “mistakenly”
> identified Taiwan, Macau and Hong Kong as independent regions.

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nabla9
Most of the world, including the UN, the US, EU, Japan, South Korea, India,
Russia and practically everybody else is not formally recognizing Taiwan.

Handful of small countries have still diplomatic relations with Taiwan, but I
don't know what the significance is.

~~~
pishpash
There is no significance. Taiwan gave them some money. Palau will be fine and
certainly weighed which decision gives more money. These places go back and
forth like churning credit card bonuses. China could pay every one of them
more so that there are no countries recognizing Taiwan as the "one China" but
why bother? They are left as chips to send a message when needed.

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pishpash
None of this is news, and the only reason it's now all over the place is
probably because the State Department or some three lettered agencies gave a
directive to ramp up the propaganda machine.

For those with longer memories, from 1949 to 1979, the US and most of the
world denied that (the current) China existed and recognized Taiwan as China.
The game has been played for decades now.

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coldtea
Tourism drops.

I'd contrast that with other countries, which e.g. topple governments or
downright invade, but that would be whataboutism, and whataboutism is bad /s

~~~
hkai
I think it is reasonable to expect China to topple foreign governments in the
near future. It has a powerful military, a highly nationalist government and
an ambition to own at least everything within the Nine Dash Line, or more.

And that's pretty scary because we in Hong Kong have felt the chilling effect
of Chinese meddling into the judiciary, media and government.

~~~
coldtea
Hong Kong? The part of China since millennia that a foreign colonial power,
after invading China who did nothing to them, "rented"?

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glasslion
What happens when a country become a puppet state of USA

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Simulacra
I’m actually hoping Trump formally recognizes Taiwan. That’s the real sledge
hammer. In all of their negotiations with China on trade, I’m really curious
if that has come up as a threat.

~~~
chibg10
Really, I'm not entirely sure why the G-8, the G-20, or even just EU + US +
Japan + SK doesn't just do this as a group. It's not like China has a feasible
retaliation option if they did, and it's certainly not going to retreat back
to pre-1980 style isolation.

~~~
Simulacra
SK will never do it because it might destroy the progress on NoKo. Japan
would, EU probably not. Germany might, U.K. won't until EU exit deals are
done, Canada might, Australia won't, not in their interest. It'd be
interesting!

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microcolonel
The funny thing is, the more the CPC throws tantrums to insist that Taiwan is
in "China", the less legitimate it sounds.

