
Show HN: Mortality Rates in the US Visualized - matthewisabel
http://www.matthewisabel.com/projects/deathrates/geographic.html
======
pg
One interesting thing I learned from this is how highly correlated mortality
from heart disease and cancer are. They're quite different types of disease,
but perhaps what they have in common is that they're diseases of civilization
in the sense of being caused by de facto "toxins" (I don't mean this
literally) of industrialized life like processed foods, lack of exercise,
cigarettes, etc.

Is there local data about possible causes of mortality? If so that might be a
good thing to add.

~~~
kyro
Also note that strokes are highly correlated with those two most likely due to
it being a consequence of cardiovascular (read: heart) disease. The
concentration of heart disease/stroke mortality in that region seems to be
highly correlated with obesity distribution, which isn't a surprise. Actually,
the state with the highest rate of obesity [1], Mississipi, is also the one
with the highest mortality due to heart disease, and 3rd highest for strokes.

As for cancer mortality, the distribution closely matches that of smoking
prevalence by state, more so than the distribution for heart disease, again
not a surprise [2].

What I find the most interesting, though, are the lone states that don't seem
to be a part of any cluster and have a high prevalence of, like high
respiratory mortality (and influenza/pneumonia) in Wyoming, or Alzheimer's in
Washington and North Dakota, or high drug mortality in Arizona (and not in any
of the other border states).

[1]
[http://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html](http://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html)

[2]
[http://www.cdc.gov/vitalsigns/AdultSmoking/](http://www.cdc.gov/vitalsigns/AdultSmoking/)

~~~
icambron
I have no expertise here, but I wonder if the Alzheimer's rate in Washington
and North Dakota reflect differences is how deaths are classified.

~~~
bane
They're also statistically small numbers, so percentages are larger
comparatively. But it definitely is one of the standout questions from this.

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tbenst
On first glance, I was shocked by how similar it looked to the electoral map
from Presidential elections. 39/50 states in this chart are the correct color
for the 2012 electoral map. For fun, I then took the correlation of the
mortality rate and percentage of votes for Romney for each state and got at
49% correlation.

It goes without saying that correlation != causation and I do not mean this as
a political statement, rather a quantification of this curious resemblance.

~~~
bane
Put another way, different mortality causes could be reflected in different
political needs.

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bane
Remote, low population areas are high for accidents and suicides.

The Alzheimer's chart was unusual, all things being equal, I'd have expected
the statistic to be flatter.

Suicide, Alcohol and Parkinson's have a strange sort of correlation.

 _how come whenever I see these kinds of things, it 's always for the U.S.? Is
the data simply not available in other countries/areas? I've almost never seen
similar visualization experiments for say...France. Is the U.S. just _that*
much better in collecting and distributing data about itself? _

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pawn
This is a fascinating tool you've put together. One can look at all sorts of
interesting contrasts and/or patterns from it.

One that I found interesting is that Washington and Florida have among the
lowest rates for the flu, on complete opposite corners of the map and with
what most would say are very different climates.

I was also surprised that the flu kills more per 100,000 than alcohol,
firearms, or vehicles. It doesn't seem to get the press that those others do.

~~~
matthewisabel
It should say influenza and pneumonia for that label. I just realized that
error. That number sounds more appropriate that label. Adjusting now.

Update: Fixed.

~~~
ekianjo
What tool did you use to generate these maps?

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matthewisabel
D3.js and a bit of jQuery. I really designed as I built. When I clean it up
and add some other data it'll probably be a good place to use Backbone.

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nhebb
How does mortality data account for age? Given heart disease, cancer, and
respiratory diseases were the top three causes of death in 2010, if in 2060
the average life span were 10 years longer, isn't it likely that these three
things would still be the leading cause of death? The geographic distribution
is interesting, but it seems to me that to breaking it down by age group would
be more informative.

~~~
matthewisabel
On page 110 of the CDC's PDF the formula for computing age-adjustment is
discussed. You'll also find the original data there where you can look column-
by-column and see the impact that adjustment has for various states and cases.

[http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr61/nvsr61_04.pdf](http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr61/nvsr61_04.pdf)

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tokenadult
I thought that this would be a time-trend display, like the one shared a while
ago by another HN participant from Scientific American:

[http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=longevity-w...](http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=longevity-
why-we-die-global-life-expectancy)

We've made significant progress against most causes of death, at all ages,
since I was born.

~~~
matthewisabel
Once I get that data I'll be all over. I definitely think this data (and
something more granular) is particularly fascinating when considered over
time.

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brianherbert
Funny, terrorism didn't even make the list ;)

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yen223
That implies that the TSA is really good at their job right?

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Ellipsis753
I was kind of hoping that they would all be 100% as a dark reminder that we
will all die.

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sakai
Anybody know anything about VT health stats? I'm struck by the fact that it:

* Has the lowest influenza/pneumonia rate (7.9)

* Has the lowest nephritis rate (6.7)

* Is in the "really low" rate color for HIV and homicides*

* But has the highest Parkinson's rate (9.6)

What's a contributing factor for Parkinson's?

* Edit: That appears to be the "no data" color actually. I just assumed it was very low because VT has few homicides (1.4 / 100k residents average rate for the past 3 years, or about 10 homicides annually)

~~~
ronnier
From Wikipedia, Vermont is 98.12% white. Many statistics correlate with
demographics.

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vermont#Race_and_gender](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vermont#Race_and_gender)

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DanielBMarkham
Some interesting patterns here.

I know several folks who live in Kentucky. Doesn't look like the state does
too well. Florida, on the other hand, seems to hold up well across the board.
Obesity kills in the deep south and especially the central Gulf states big
time, and there's a string of alcoholism than runs along the Rocky Mountains.

I don't find the Connecticut/Hawaii good numbers too strange, as both have
very high incomes and cost of living.

~~~
DharmaPolice
If the data is age adjusted it would be interesting to know if the Florida
figures are influenced by retirees moving there.

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hotpockets
The west virginia->smoking->nicotine->no parkinsons link seems apparent. High
lung disease though.

~~~
fennecfoxen
West Virginia is also coal-mining territory, for what that's worth.

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LionRoar
I always realy like these kind of data. Not in a morbid sense but just to see
the real data instead of marketing driven FUD. Another thought that I always
have seeing data like this is that it gives a clear view where the government
should spend their/our money.

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dead_phish
How did you incorporate data from Washington DC into this? I can almost
guarantee that the reason Maryland has such a high rate on the HIV/AIDS chart
is because of the District, and its outlying areas (Prince George's County,
Anacostia, etc.)

~~~
matthewisabel
I didn't include DC data. It does exist if you reference the data PDF put out
by the CDC.

I originally had included DC but it's a major outlier since it's almost
entirely urban. It's also not a state and doesn't visualize well because of
its size, so it's not in the csv I used.

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elwell
Suicide seems to be highest in rural (lonely) cold (also less sunlight)
states.

~~~
gilgoomesh
I think suicide is prevented by HIV – the two maps seem to be nearly complete
opposites.

~~~
crystaln
HIV correlates with sexual activity, which seems likely to have a negative
correlation with suicide. People who are getting laid are happier.

~~~
ars
I wouldn't say that. People who are in steady relationships are happier, and
those have less HIV risk.

People who bounce for person to person might be having fun, but long term and
not usually happier.

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prawn
What would be behind the suicide strip just in from the West coast? Struggling
farmers? (I'm not from the US, so not overly familiar with all the states and
what they're known for.)

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t0dd
Some recent research suggests the primary factor is "residential instability":

"Put another way, the very traits associated with the West (and romanticized
in American culture)—individualism and independence, stoicism and solitude—may
also have deeply negative implications for its people."

[http://www.rwjf.org/en/about-rwjf/newsroom/newsroom-
content/...](http://www.rwjf.org/en/about-rwjf/newsroom/newsroom-
content/2013/06/solving-the-riddle-of-the-u-s--suicide-belt.html)

~~~
prawn
Thanks for the link.

"They also guessed that the West's low population density might play a role in
its high suicide rates, but the findings did not bear that out."

For others who don't read the article, residential instability is their
suggestion leading to lessened social integration.

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0003
This is absolutely sluggish in firefox 24, but runs like butter in chrome.
Does anyone have a similar experience?

It looks like New Yorkers look both way when they cross the street.

~~~
pawn
Works in Waterfox with no issue...

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aptwebapps
Looks like suicides and accidents are at least a little bit correlated as
well. I wonder if that is due to incorrect attributions? It could go either
way, too.

~~~
dzink
Both happen in states where people live long distances apart. Loneliness,
boredom, and lots of driving maybe?

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Houshalter
It's interesting, but I want to know, as a young individual what is likely to
kill me? I want to know where I should put my efforts towards not dying.

~~~
kybernetikos
So it's actually even worse than that - you need to know not only what will
stand a good chance of killing you, but what is sensitive to intervention too.
You need a causal link that you can break, not just correlation and that's so
hard to research that there's much less known about it.

For example, studies tell us that sitting more than three hours per day
correlates with a reduced life expectancy:
[http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/07/09/study-
excessi...](http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/07/09/study-excessive-
sitting-cuts-life-expectancy-by-two-years) but that doesn't tell you that if
you take someone who is sitting that much and make them stop it'll make any
difference at all.

~~~
Houshalter
Right but it's evidence towards the hypothesis "standing for three hours will
increase your life span". It seems _less likely_ that people who live longer
are inherently more likely to stand.

But yes I see your point. A lot of pop science "doing X will help you live
longer" strikes me as complete bullshit.

~~~
kybernetikos
You're quite right of course (although actually, it seems very plausible to me
that fit people are more likely to stand more / choose jobs where they will
stand more) My comment was mainly out of the frustration I have because so
many interventions are very difficult to do and so I want good confidence that
they will actually make a difference, but most research just gives you at best
strong correlations.

Still, I've got a standing desk now...

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ekianjo
Why is there such a high rate of Alzheimer in Washington state? There may be
something to discover there related to its causes.

~~~
matthewisabel
It does seem like quite an outlier. I found another article that mentions it
and splits it by county. [http://socialcapitalreview.org/washington-tops-u-s-
in-12-yea...](http://socialcapitalreview.org/washington-tops-u-s-in-12-year-
alzheimers-death-rates/)

It looks like a problem in the western part of the state, but I don't see any
suggestion of why that is.

*Correction: Meant county instead of country.

~~~
ekianjo
This definitely deserves some kind of investigation. There's probably
something to learn from such high levels of difference in very close counties
: [http://socialcapitalreview.org/wp-
content/uploads/2013/03/Sc...](http://socialcapitalreview.org/wp-
content/uploads/2013/03/Screen-shot-2013-03-28-at-9.16.54-AM.png)

~~~
dubfan
As a resident of Washington the first thing that comes to mind is the
difference in climate between the west and east. The eastern part of the state
is mostly semi-arid, nearly desert in some areas.

I've heard we also have one of the highest rates of multiple sclerosis in the
US, but I'm having a hard time finding good data on that.

~~~
erichurkman
It could also be something innocent, like a large treatment center or
palliative care facility.

That is, unless the data is meticulously groomed to report the patients'
county/state of origin.

~~~
ekianjo
I contacted Dr Doraiswamy (a well known Alzheimer specialist) and he could not
think of any other reason than _" higher rate of APoE4 genotype due to greater
Scandinavian heritage"_. He also suggested this could be coming from the way
the death ratio is calculated _" ie the denominator of deaths to all other
causes is lower due to better diet"_.

I'll see what I can find.

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ars
Reminds me of "A Fire Upon the Deep", because the warmer the climate the worse
the mortality rate.

~~~
adventured
That's not accurate.

California, Arizona, Hawaii, Florida are among the best states for longevity.
The mortality rates in Hawaii for example are the lowest, and California is
#2. The numbers for Texas and New Mexico, while elevated, are still
dramatically lower than the high mortality belt numbers.

Also, one of the biggest offenders is West Virginia, and having spent a lot of
time there, it's not a particularly warm state about half the year (certainly
not compared to Mississippi).

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eliben
Is it only me, or is California suspiciously low in almost every single
category? Why would that be?

~~~
dragonwriter
> Is it only me, or is California suspiciously low in almost every single
> category?

Well, its the second best overall, but "almost every single category"? 1\.
Heart, it is on the low side but near the middle of the pack;

2\. Cancer, it is one of the best;

3\. Respiratory, it is on the low side but not very low;

4\. Stroke it is near the middle of the pack;

5\. Accident it is fairly low;

6\. Alzheimer's its is significantly _worse_ than average;

7\. Diabetes it is near the middle of the pack;

8\. Nephritis it is quite low;

9\. Influenza it is a bit worse than average, but near the middle;

10\. Drug it is slightly better than average;

11\. Suicide it is a little better than average;

12\. Motor vehicle it is quite low but far from the best;

13\. Firearms it is quite low but far from the best;

14\. Alcohol it is notably worse than average;

15\. Parkinson's it is a little better than average;

16\. Homicide it is a hair better than average;

17\. HIV it is better than average but far from the best.

No, I don't think that counts as "suspiciously low in almost every single
category".

~~~
ekianjo
For Alzheimer, if you don't die from any other condition, you will likely live
longer and therefore the neurodegenerative illnesses will be more prominent,
it seems very logical actually.

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redemade
state names on hover would be helpful

~~~
bitops
That, or you could learn your US geography. :)

~~~
sp332
Imagine how lost you would be if it showed the 22 _régions_ of Metropolitan
France! :)

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ballard
Neat. A world map would be interesting, even if the data isn't as readily
available.

