
Ask HN: People are panic buying. What to do? - superasn
I just got a phone call from my brother that a lot of online services have stopped delivering.<p>I just went to the supermarket and I see people just stocking up on essential items and empty shelves everywhere.<p>I am very much against it since it&#x27;s a very illogical thing to do.<p>What would the sane way to go about it? Is it really possible that we can run out of things like milk and diapers nowadays?<p>This is the first time I&#x27;m seeing this happen in my life :(
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emsign
I hate it when people call it panic buying. It's not a panic. People are
preparing themselves to have food for 2 weeks. That's what you should do as
well.

In fact what everyone should have done is stockpiling gradually over the last
couple of weeks. I went grocery shopping today and I only had to buy a few
things because I was already prepared when there was still enough in the
stores.

Be smart, think about what you need to get by without being able to go to the
store for 2 weeks. I see lots of people buying stuff like bread, but you don't
wanna eat bread all the time, do you? Also it goes bad pretty quickly. I think
most of the bread that has been bought will end up in the dumpster.

~~~
GuiA
You can easily freeze bread.

~~~
njibhu
This. Take your slices out of the freezer in the evening and you get your good
bread for breakfast or later the next day.

~~~
tzs
For bread that isn't sliced thick, I've found that it thaws remarkably fast.
10-15 minutes on a paper towel on the counter is enough.

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nabla9
You many run out of things temporarily until more deliveries arrive and they
stack the shelves. There will be no long term shortages.

It's a good idea to buy and store some durable supplies because you may need
to self quarantine for few weeks. It's also a good idea to shop less
frequently and buy more at once to avoid getting infection. It's unfortunate
that everyone decides to do it at the same time.

'I need to do something to protect my family' is very core need under threat.
When there is little you can do, you take little more toilet paper so that you
have done something. It's both silly and very human.

~~~
fbernier
The "until more deliveries arrive" is at most the next day. The supply chain
for grocery stores is very, very good and we are not even close to lacking of
anything.

~~~
ksdale
Just FYI, I live near Seattle, and the grocery stores around here have been
out of many things for a week. I'm sure they've been restocking in the
meanwhile, but we haven't been able to get a few things.

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hn_throwaway_99
Since there is no fundamental supply issue (at least for items like groceries
and toilet paper) this will follow the same curve as other "panic buying" \-
stores will be pretty barren for about a week or so, then everyone will
realize it's not Armageddon and go on normally.

The _exact_ same thing happened a couple years ago WRT gas in Texas. There was
no _actual_ shortage, but because of the hurricane there was fear buying that
there _would_ be a shortage, so people showed up to gas stations literally
filling up garbage cans with gas, and then there _was_ an actual shortage.

If possible, though, I would definitely recommend stocking up on essentials
when things get back to normal. I'm not worried about doomsday, just
irrational humans clearing out the shelves at the slightest hit of a negative
event.

~~~
selim_tiotoys
Funny how your last paragraph makes all of the above sounds irrelevant. That's
the exact same rational - emotional chain "panic buyers" went through.

~~~
hn_throwaway_99
Not at all. That's like telling people it's irrational to buy a fire
extinguisher. Point is going out a buying all the fire extinguishers when
there is a mass panic is dumb. Time to take reasonable precautions is in
normal times, and I'm not talking about filling a floor in your house with TP,
either.

------
erentz
> I am very much against it since it’s a very illogical thing to do.

And that’s why the shelves are empty now and you have this problem. Panic is
good. EARLY “panic” is the best. It leads to preparedness and less panic later
when things are tough and it would cause more problems. When I was telling
people five weeks ago to start preparing now by building up their supplies
because this is the real deal I was laughed at by a few and told to “stop
panicking”. A few others listened and they’re not panicked now. If everyone
had listened and done the responsible thing of building up their supplies over
those few weeks you wouldn’t see this problem.

Now is a better time than never to start preparing up in case you have to
spend some time stuck inside.

The supply chains are still working fine for super markets so you’ll see the
stock on shelves continue to build back up.

------
ISL
We are not going to run out of most groceries. The primary advantage of
stocking up is to make it possible to stay home.

If you don't have Covid-19, staying home limits your risk of getting it and
then passing it on. If you _do_ catch it, having enough supplies to manage a
mild case at home also limits the likelihood of passing it on.

As long as community transmission is low in your area, stocking up today in
order to be able to stay home for the next couple of weeks seems to make
sense.

This is a collective fight. The average person can aid the global effort
through the simple effort of avoiding in-person human contact. (Reaching out
electronically can help us feel connected, too!)

------
ashildr
There is panic buying and there is being prepared. We started buying more of
the usual stuff we use about 4(?) weeks ago. We agreed, that the situation
looked dangerous in january and considered triggers for different actions. So
we now can decide to go shopping, still go to the market, but de don’t have to
go to closed, crowded places. We were able to do this because we followed
“real news” and have a background in science and we didn’t let our friends
tell us “it’s not going to be bad!” without having a point. Is is a calm and
rational process of risk assessment and mitigation.

If you see people stocking up on water in my area, _that’s_ panic buying.
Scenarios for extended failure of the grid or water supply is implausible. The
risk of running out of food for extended periods of time is low in my area.
These people realize that they slacked and now they are still uninformed. The
only thing that helps against panic buyng is education and information.

------
theseadroid
Humans are not logical animals. There's a lot of criticism on modelling human
making logical decisions in economics. In some other fields humans are
modelled as fluids or herds, devoid of individual judgement/decision making.

Some items will be restocked, some others may not due to supply chain
disruption. Look online for DIY solutions or alternatives as there are plenty.
In some cities Asian supermarkets might be a viable option since many Asians
have stocked up like weeks ago and they avoid crowded places now.

~~~
akga
> In some other fields humans are modelled as fluids or herds, devoid of
> individual judgement/decision making

From a game theory perspective, following the herd in this case could be the
rational choice on an individual level even if you have decision making. If
enough people think there's a shortage coming, and they stock up in
preparation for it, then you get an actual shortage as a result. In this
scenario, there's very little potential downside to stocking up (at least for
non-perishables) from your perspective, since even if you're wrong then you're
just saving a few trips to the supermarket in the near future, and you might
even get a discount if you buy in bulk (incl. saving gas, time, etc). But
there is a potential downside to not stocking up, since you then risk not
being able to later find the item when need it again, or having to pay more
for it if you do find it. Going further, if you think that other people are
going to start panic buying, then it makes sense for you to do so as well. But
by doing so you also contribute to causing the shortage, leading to a self
fulfilling prophesy.

So I don't think it's necessarily that people aren't being logical, but more
that they're acting based on limited information.

------
Fnoord
Its easy to judge other people without knowing their situation.

It depends on where you are, and how far the virus is in your
country/state/city/region.

It also depends on if you can order groceries online and have them delivered.
Though there might be extra costs attached and there's possibly environmental
impact I believe this to be the best method to avoid further infections. If
you prepare to have the virus, or to avoid getting it, going less to grocery
store and making sure you got a supply makes sense.

We're currently ill (probably not COVID-19) and my daughter of 2 had diarrhea
and vomiting. I made sure she got enough pain relievers, because our supply
was running out.

There is also a large difference between buying a little bit more supplies,
and buying very large amounts...

~~~
ThrowawayR2
> " _It also depends on if you can order groceries online and have them
> delivered._ "

Regarding this, it's worth remembering that an ill packer or delivery driver
can contaminate your delivery as well. Hand-washing, etc. after handling
delivered groceries (or mail, for that matter) may be warranted for high risk
individuals in areas known to have ongoing spread of COVID-19.

------
_bxg1
Stock up a modest amount yourself. If people are manufacturing a shortage by
panic-buying, then you don't need to do the same thing, but you do need to
prepare for that manufactured shortage itself. We made sure we've got a week
or two's worth of stuff we already use. I bought an extra pack of toilet
paper; I didn't shovel the entire shelf into my cart.

------
ksec
Tell them you have no capacity problem. You are raising capacity. Rise the
price by 30%+, the reason for that would be to cover up additional cost you
have and make people think a bit before they panic buy. Rank up production to
absolute maximum given the time allowed. That basically means factory running
24/7\. Absolutely flood the market with excess stocks.

Some people have more toilet paper than they need for the rest of their life.
Some of them has _hundreds_ rolls of toilet paper. You want SPAM? Great, have
_cartons_ of SPAM, lets play the game of Supply and Demand and see if you have
more buying power than my capacity. The simple lesson is, idiots and selfish
people are everywhere. ( Nothing wrong with keeping two weeks worth of stock,
but right now people are buying for the sake of buying )

So what hasn't this happen? The answer is Lead time. Not only in capacity but
in decision making. As far as I am aware _NO_ manufacturers to date have risen
capacity when they were given prior notice. They only raise when the stock
were running dry, and there were _real_ incentives to do so. The decision of
that has also taken days if not weeks till action, which is very long in
consumer's view perspective.

Look at Hong Kong and Taiwan. Shops now have years wroth of stocks in hand
cleaning and washing solutions. They only capacity constraint we have right
now is Mask.

------
furyofantares
At some point you may wish to not go to the grocery store for 2-3 weeks,
either because you get sick, or because too much of the population may be
contagious, which could be right now depending on where you are and whether
you are high risk.

So it makes sense to have a few weeks of supplies even if normally you just
get what you need as you need it on a much shorter timeframe.

If we want to kill this virus, or flatten the curve, we can do a lot by simply
going out less. That means fewer trips to the store, which means bigger
purchases each trip.

This is a good idea right now even if there are no confirmed cases in your
area yet. Stock up, let grocery stores restock for people who waited, get
ready, get the right habits now that let you stay out of public, and reduce
the potential spread now.

Buying a gorillion bottles of hand sanitizer is of course not helping and
selfish. But stocking up on things you will use and reducing time in public is
a good idea.

------
TrueNomad
Today, first time in my life, thanks to my wife's blind fury imagination
assuming we will starve, I have spent close to $400 on groceries which in any
normal day I wouldn't imagine buying. But at the end of the day it is a small
price to pay and play to her hand than resisting to go shopping and spend the
day fighting. And in my opinion, it is not going to be as bad as people think.
We will not go to using leafs as toilet paper. Store supplies will return to
normalcy in a week or two. And god know we all have enough pasta and ragu to
tide us 2 weeks in any pantry nowadays. If you don't, may be you should,
especially considering eating out is rolling the dice a tad riskier than I
would like to take. I have shopped at a walmart super center and a supertarget
right across the road from that and first time in my life i have seen walmart
out of bread and there was a 200+ people line inside the store waiting for a
package of toilet paper. It is just widespread panic and I believe it is for
nothing. When I lived in Atlanta GA, I used to laugh at the women loading up
their carts with 15 gallons of milk and 30 loaves of bread because the weather
man said it was going to flurry tonight. In Atlanta, snow falls one or two
days tops in whole winter and stays on the ground 4-6 hours and you fight the
slush for the next two days, before everything goes back to normal. Today I
remembered thise scenes and looked at my shopping cart. Thanks to my wife, I
turned to one of those ladies.

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jcheong0428
Actually seems like a pretty rational thing to do. People will stay home more,
cook more frequently, and obviously need more toilet paper than usual
(especially when the entire family starts staying home more). Most
importantly, people probably prefer to go shopping less frequently so you
naturally end up buying more each time. As mentioned, it's unfortunate
everyone's doing it at the same time.

------
smdz
When hikers or travelers are beginners, have you seen how much more (or not
enough) they pack? With experience or guidance they tend to pack lighter.

In the current case, some are concerned, some are waiting to survive a
doomsday, some watched the Contagion movie, some are hoping to make money.

A sane way: For Covid-19, one has to be prepared with basics(food, water,
soap, fever-reducing-medicines) for somewhere between 14-27 days of home
quarantine (or curfews). And not just assume by default that administration
will crumble - they are usually there when you need the basics, except for
countries where it has been proven otherwise. Many things that people are
stocking up are non-essentials i.e. replaceable with other less comfy methods.

After this is over, the govt. administration can attempt to advertise/educate
some preparations for the next unforeseen times. Over a longer period that
becomes a cultural habit.

I do not understand why people take unprescribed medicines, especially
antivirals as prevention, when that could clearly disturb human microbiome and
open up for infections.

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datacy
I think there is a difference between a famine and a virus pandemic. We don't
have a shortage of food (at least not yet in the UK). It may get there over
time if more people get ill and food and basic supplies get affected as a
result. Gradually buying food and buying a bit of a buffer is possibly okay.
But buying an entire trolly of toilet papers (I saw a woman buying 20 large
packets of toilet papers today, enough to last 2 people 2 months I'd say) is
possibly putting unnecessary strains on supermarkets and the supply chain in
general. I spoke to the managers at my local supermarket today and asked them
if they can place a threshold on certain essential items (for example if you
buy more than 3 packets of toilet papers in one go, you have to pay a premium
for the 4th packet) - that way people will really think about whether they
truly need everything they are buying and possibly think twice before
unnecessarily panic buying. It is important to think about how our actions
will impact others as well I think.

~~~
moepstar
Care to share the answer you received?

~~~
datacy
Having spoken to the local staff at Waitrose, there is no shortage of supply
(as of yet). The shortage comes from them not being able to refill stock from
their warehouse fast enough due to the unprecedented demand. They are also
constrained by their business model. Supermarket shelf spaces are super
competitive and expensive, with many products fighting for exposure. So, they
maintain a tight refill schedule, which is difficult to alter in a short time.
They also have little capacity to fill all shelf spaces with essentials, as
they still have to stock and display certain non-essential items (even if
these are not in demand) contractually or otherwise. The general gist of it is
that they have enough in the warehouses, and even though they can add 2x more,
they are not prepared for every single person stocking up 3 months worth of
essentials in one go.

In my local Waitrose, they've already limited the purchase of toilet papers to
max 2 packs per person and pasta to 3 packs per person. I believe all
supermarkets in the UK have already released a statement requesting people to
be more considerate when buying essential items, so maybe that will encourage
people to not stock up to the extent they are.

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troughway
>What would the sane way to go about it?

Plan for at least a week, if not two ahead. This depends on the number of
people in the household.

>Is it really possible that we can run out of things like milk and diapers
nowadays?

1\. Someone correct me if I am wrong but cargo transports haven't stopped
(ships, planes, trucks, trains). These things will keep coming in and stocking
up the necessary stores.

2\. People will stock up at once and then the craze will subside.

3\. Just-In-Time works great when things go well, not so great when things
aren't going well. Countries have warehouses stocked with (non-perishable?)
food in case things don't go well.

>This is the first time I'm seeing this happen in my life :(

When this whole thing is over, go and volunteer in some third-world backwater
shithole of a country and help them out. For many parts of the world, this
blip of a "food shortage crisis" is the standard fare, along with a general
lack of, well, everything.

Also, a good portion of the western population does not know how to cook, or
has a very limited range of cooking, baking and food preparation skills.
Something to consider.

~~~
freediver
Calling any country a “shithole” place is a terrible insult for its
population.

~~~
troughway
No, not at all. Just pointing out the unsanitary situation that is the norm
for these countries.

~~~
mthoms
You've just proven you can get the exact same point across without being
offensive (and quite frankly, a little bit juvenile).

------
johnstorey
I would assume that you will have basic utilities without interruption --
water, electricity. Supply chains could, theoretically, have disruptions as
the disease runs through the world. I am not saying they will; just that they
can. If it happens the affect on you and yours of not having extra is
extremely significant. That's enough of a reason to buy what you can.

You cannot go back and time, but after things settle down (they will) look at
your budget and what it takes to have a couple of weeks extra of necessary
items. It's not super expensive to buy rice and beans if you are on a budget,
then rotate your supply when the rice starts to get old. If you have more
money you can get something with less monotonous flavor: canned food,
dehydrated, freeze dried, whatever. You may need it twice in your life, but
when you do, it will be the wisest thing you have every done.

------
alkonaut
So long as there are no major supply disruptions (which we have little reason
to believe there will be), you’ll see full shelves of fresh produce while the
frozen and canned sections are bare. Eat fresh food and buy some cans when you
see them. I doubt anyone will go hungry because of this.

------
jjav
Preparation and panic are not the same. Do not expect to rely on conveniences
like deliveries, they are merely conveniences and can stop.

It is very possible to run out access to necessities. I don't believe food
itself will be in any significant shortage, but you might not get to it.

If you fall sick, you'll need to self-isolate and not leave the house for
several weeks. So you need to be ready to do so.

Even if you remain healthy, access to supermarkets may have restrictions (see
Italy today). While you can get food, you might need to line up for a few
hours, increasing your exposure. Best to have a few weeks of food at home for
when your area is in this stage.

The alternative to preparation is to wait until you need to panic. Not
recommended.

------
igetspam
Toilet papwr, bananas and carrots were all gona at my local store. I got
everything else I'd planned. I'm not panicking about TP. I spent like $45 on a
couple more bidet seats for my house and we're all using them. It's more
environmentally friendly and I don't have to worry about hoarders.

We've had a bread machine for a while, so we use that a lot. We don't have cow
milk in the house anyway. I have pet chickens and if we need to, we can eat
the eggs. We have a mostly vegetarian diet and the meat alternatives aren't
flying off the shelves.

Just need to find some carrots and bananas...

------
wyiske
Since this thing isn’t going away in the next 2 weeks, seems illogical to buy
too much. The advice is to buy 2 weeks of supplies in case you’re infected and
can’t leave the house. People would need 6+ months worth of supplies, and even
then would get infected once they came out of hibernation. The smart thing is
for people to start thinking longer term for now. As for the solution, try buy
slightly more than you usually would, until the panic buying is over. Try
smaller shops and chat to owners about when they will have stock?

------
taborj
There were similar situations during Y2K, which my friend reminded me was a
generation ago now, so many younger folks don't remember.

As others have said, this is a temporary blip, but when things are restocked,
you should build up your supply. The ideal thing is to build it up slowly over
weeks or month, and always have a rotating supply (make sure you use and
replace items before they expire).

------
superasn
Thanks everyone for your replies. It does give me clarity and I feel that it
wouldn't hurt me to buy 2 weeks supply of super essential things esp baby
products.

I used to buy them like this before anyway, but something just felt wrong
doing it today when supplies are running so low for everyone.

------
ashildr
Shower thought: if you can’t actually cook and improvise but are used to have
access to industrially prepared food, being prepared to stay at home for a few
weeks is way more complicated.

------
olalonde
It's not that irrational. First thing that comes to mind is you might want to
minimize times you have to leave the house or prepare yourself for the
eventuality of a quarantine.

------
bfieidhbrjr
Why is it illogical? Often there is a deeper logic than what appears on the
surface.

Nassim Taleb pointed out on twitter recently that when interest rates are zero
(in reality negative with inflation), buying tons of non-perishable goods
isn't really that bad of an idea. The time value of the money is arguably
better sitting in toilet paper than cash.

To answer your question, yes it really is possible that we run out of basic
goods. That's why people are "panicking". Personally I don't see it as super
likely, but you could reasonably argue that it's probable.

~~~
robjan
There are other investment vehicles than cash and toilet paper. One's that are
actually productive.

~~~
bfieidhbrjr
/r/wallstreetbets would love to know what those are right now?

~~~
robjan
wsb is about speculation, not investing. This straw man doesn't diminish my
argument.

------
haunter
>I am very much against it since it's a very illogical thing to do.

OP I wish you to never experience a natural disaster. This is nothing compared
to those.

------
baq
Logic flows from axioms, consider axioms that these other people believe in.
It may well be that it’s a perfectly logical things to do.

------
Havoc
I haven't seen any panic buying yet. Pretty sure the shop downstairs even has
toilet paper.

I got ~month of Mana powdered meals just in case though.

------
jacknews
it's not illogical at all

If everyone else is likely to 'stock up' and therefore cause shortages, the
only logical thing to do is also 'stock up', before there are shortages and
you can't get things you need.

------
moandcompany
It's only "panic buying" for the people that aren't prepared.

------
Ghjklov
Anyone who calls you stupid for being vigilant and preparing for the worse,
are just as likely to call you stupid for not preparing if disaster does
strike. It looks like many people prefer to be stupid and fed, than stupid and
hungry.

------
alicestyles
this is a worldwide problem at the moment.

------
photawe
These are not ordinary times. Seems that it takes quite a lot of time for a
lot of people to grasp the severity of the situation.

My take is that in the near term (1-2 months), there will be a shortage of a
lot of produce, especially food. I really hope I'm wrong.

I suggest you stock up everything for 2-4 weeks - it's something I've done. My
plan is to go out buying every 2 weeks or so.

~~~
david-gpu
> My take is that in the near term (1-2 months), there will be a shortage of a
> lot of produce

I say this from a place of kindness and compassion: this is the sort of
mindset we should avoid.

It's understandable to have fear of an unknown situation, but look at the
available data. Even in places with large outbreaks, grocery stores have
continued delivering all essentials to the population.

Ensuring you have some food for the next couple of weeks (not the next couple
of months/years) makes sense in case you need to self-isolate. That's about
it.

~~~
ma2rten
We have yet to see most of the impact of supply chain disruption from China.
That alone is going to impact most businesses. If in addition to that a lot of
people in your own country are going to be sick or quarantined, I don't think
we can assume things are going to work out the same as before.

~~~
robjan
How much food is actually imported from China into your country?

~~~
ma2rten
It's not about food, but about things like parts for machines needed to make
that food.

