
You have 7 years to learn Mandarin - kungfudoi
http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/29/magazines/fortune/seven_years_learn_chinese.fortune/
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henning
Isn't this just like 20 years ago when everyone thought the Japanese were
going to take over?

~~~
donw
Part of it is, but China has several things that the Japanese do not.

Japan has to import pretty much _everything_ they need to keep their economy
running. The Japanese population is also about half that of the United States,
and during their boom years, there was such a massive problem in finding
skilled workers that the Japanese government had to turn a blind eye to the
sheer number of illegal immigrants flooding in from the rest of southeast
Asia.

The Japanese also care very deeply about nature; I have never seen a polluted
stream or a park covered in litter there, and I've spent a decent amount of
time in the country. Of course, this is one of the bits of Japanese culture
that I rather love. _grin_

So, Japan could have probably swallowed the U.S., if they weren't so dependent
on imports; it puts a limit to how high their economy can really go.

China has a wealth of natural resources, and more than enough skilled workers.
China also doesn't care one iota about their ecology, which is why Beijing is
not a city to live in if you're a fan of air, or water -- it's also worth
noting that, sanitation-wise, mainland China is still very much a third-world
country.

But unlike Japan, China doesn't _need_ to be importing and exporting to keep
their economy going; they've got so much work to do in their own country that
they've got growth potential out the wazoo.

That said, China is rapidly becoming a toxic wasteland, and I'm curious how
well the Chinese business system (all businesses being government entities)
will scale; this goes double, given how the culture promotes rampant cronyism
and incredible corruption.

Well, we live in interesting times. :)

~~~
jimbokun
"I have never seen a polluted stream or a park covered in litter there"

A Japanese beach, though, is a giant ash tray.

~~~
donw
This is sadly true; I really, really wish that the whole 'respect for nature'
included things like 'not smoking'.

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lg
i don't think the world will ever learn mandarin en masse if that entails
learning thousands of characters. that said, if the chinese embrace an
alphabet (at least for communication with foreigners), pinyin/bopomofo could
become the standard for an "international mandarin." or more likely, the
chinese will just learn english since it already has international traction.

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k7lim
Good luck grokking the four tones of Mandarin, it's tough, but doable. I was
lucky enough to have been raised speaking Mandarin, though my skill isn't
great and I probably have a thick American accent. donw, the traditional
characters are beautiful, and easier to remember (though harder to write). But
when it comes to China in specific, I've been told that the
traditional/simplified character thing strikes up the Taiwan/PROC tension.
It's a beautiful language, and there are plenty of movies that will get you to
understand that. A girl I dated improved her Mandarin tonalities after we
watched "Crouching Tiger," of all movies. However, many of the "mainstream"
Chinese actors we're aware of here in the US do NOT speak Mandarin as a first
language, and their accents aren't very good in roles where they're forced to
speak Mandarin.

~~~
chaostheory
the tones aren't hard. reading and writing Chinese characters (even
simplified) are hard

~~~
wallflower
Classic essay: "Why Chinese is so Damn Hard"
<http://www.pinyin.info/readings/texts/moser.html>

"Someone once said that learning Chinese is "a five-year lesson in humility".
I used to think this meant that at the end of five years you will have
mastered Chinese and learned humility along the way. However, now having
studied Chinese for over six years, I have concluded that actually the phrase
means that after five years your Chinese will still be abysmal, but at least
you will have thoroughly learned humility."

~~~
martythemaniak
This is a really good essay that I read long ago. My view is... you got
nothing to worry about. Between how hard Chinese is to learn, and the
eagerness of Chinese to learn English
([http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/04/28/080428fa_fact_...](http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/04/28/080428fa_fact_osnos))
and the fact that even at current rates of growth it'll take decades for China
to catch up means English will be the default international language for a
long time yet.

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geebee
I have no doubt that China will grow as an economic power. Personally, I'm not
especially worried about it. As China gets wealthier, the "wage arbitrage"
involved in moving over there will shrink, so I disagree with the writer that
Americans in "place-based" activities will be better off. You may be better
off in a position to sell stuff to newly wealthy Chinese and Indian consumers.
I also suspect that prosperity and liberalism (meaning democracy and free
markets, not handouts) will go hand in hand - so far, they usually have.

As for learning Mandarin? Hey, go for it, but I doubt it'll be crucial.
English is very entrenched at this point, and it's not really about the USA
anymore. English became entrenched because of the British Empire/US
ascendency, but now it's just a convenient standard for the 21st century. I've
read that several European companies are so diverse that it's easier to just
use English than German, French, Swedish, regardless of location. Scientific
conferences in Asia use English even when the audience doesn't contain a
single American, Brit, or Australian.

Nobody does this out of some deep respect for English - they do it because
it's convenient. Everyone educated these days becomes literate in their own
native language + English, and preferably some other language as well.

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donw
Well, I'm starting in the near future, albeit with the traditional characters,
rather than simplified (U.N. be damned). China is undoubtedly an economic
powerhouse, and learning new languages is fun, so I might as well pick up
something useful.

That said, this is not necessarily a bad thing; in fact, maybe it's a good
chance for the U.S. to get back to its economic roots and actually start
producing something again, with an exchange rate that favors exports and a
skilled local labor pool.

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Tichy
Wow, highly original thought: China is going to be an economic superpower.

Except I have read that about a zillion times before...

Just gives me a thought: maybe it would make sense to create two fake
identities, one who predicts China becomes a superpower, and one who predicts
that it is doomed. Then, whichever turns out to be true, you can officially
assume that identity and be hailed as a prophet.

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okeumeni
I always wonder when people list China among the most powerful nations in the
world.

For sure they the most populous with 1.5 billions; it’s a big market of people
to sell stuff to and unlimited cheap labor;

Here is my point 1.5 billions with a middle class (by world standards) of few
millions, a large majority under the poverty level (by all standards), the
shared revenue per head is as low as most poor countries. Is China powerful
because of its population only?

Personally I think China will pull the whole world economy down the more it
opens to the world (it’s already started with Gas and food); the growth will
be tempered by humanitarian need.

Put aside the option of a bunch of cheap labor China is still globally a very
poor country and not yet in the position to make mandarin a great commodity.

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byrneseyeview
"If we used the exchange rate, the value of a new skyscraper in Shanghai would
count much less toward China's GDP than an identical building in Chicago would
count toward America's, which makes no sense."

Somehow, I don't think the author has thought very hard about this. The value
of the building isn't labor plus materials -- it's not like he'd make the same
argument about putting it in the Gobi desert. It's possible to estimate the
proper exchange rate, and use this to estimate China's actual GDP.

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Prrometheus
I am not sure that anybody needs to learn Mandarin. However, all my friends
who speak it have gotten nice job offers in China.

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mynameishere
Eh. Even if China gains economic supremacy, they won't have as much cultural
significance as a single hollywood B-lister.

~~~
immad
I am sure they will for the 1bn+ Chinese speakers.

Culture tends to spread based on economic supremacy. It has done in the past,
do you have a reason to think it won't here beyond the language barrier?

~~~
schtog
because they dont WANT to believe it they choose not to believe it.

obv the white western world is not gonna reign over the whole world forever.

lets jsut ope they treat us better than weve treated them.

any hope for democracy in China in the near future?

will it happen as they grow wealthier?

i mean it can ahrdly be called communism anymore, more like fascism now(not
that thats any better).

