

Critiquing the Doomsday Argument - eru
http://hanson.gmu.edu/nodoom.html

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Allocator2008
Cool stuff. I love statistics and probabilities. I don't think "post-human" is
going to be a dominant category. It may appear but somehow not sure how stable
it would be. I think it would be more a "transition" form, much as
archeaopterx was a "transition" between dinosaurs and birds.So, post-
singularity one could have "half-man/half-machine" things running about no
doubt. But there would be no point keeping DNA-based life around. The meme
would have finally beaten the gene. I would say within a 100 or 200 hundred
thousand years of the singularity hominids will be extinct, but "life-forms"
in the form of replicating worms controlled by "minds" running on millions of
machines at once, would be prevalent. These could perhaps survive until the
heat death of the cosmos, or close to it, who knows. The key question I am not
sure about is how long the "post-human transition form" would last. Maybe 10^4
- 10^6 years or so. Hard to narrow it down further tho.

