
Potential satellite smashup could spawn dangerous debris swarm - LinuxBender
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/looming-potential-satellite-smashup-could-spawn-dangerous-debris-swarm/
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throwanem
> SpaceX's satellites will be able to sense and autonomously maneuver away
> from potential collisions, Musk has said. (This didn't happen when a
> Starlink satellite neared Europe's Aeolus Earth-observation satellite last
> September; Aeolus performed the evasive action. A paging-system bug
> prevented Starlink operators from learning that the collision probability
> had increased enough to warrant a maneuver, SpaceX representatives later
> said.)

So, the part about being able to autonomously perform evasive maneuvers is
just a lie? If it isn't, why would a paging failure prevent an "autonomous"
maneuver from occurring?

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dragonwriter
Conceivably, they could be _able_ to conduct evasive maneuvers autonomously
but be _configured to_ seek control confirmation before executing maneuvers.

Or, maybe "will be" is the key phrase and its like Tesla full autonomy -- a
feature planned to be implemented in software with the current hardware, but
not yet done.

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kfrzcode
This is my biggest civilization-level fear, that we'll mess up and end up with
a situation like the opening of Seveneves, full Kessler-effect

[https://www.space.com/23039-space-junk-explained-orbital-
deb...](https://www.space.com/23039-space-junk-explained-orbital-debris-
infographic.html)

How can we reduce the probability of this going forward? Is tracking and
maneuvering enough?

~~~
foxyv
Kessler can be mitigated by a civilization capable of launching enough mass.
Pretty much all you need is to cancel out the angular momentum of existing
debris. It would just cost a lot. However right now with our regulatory
environment Kessler is not likely. Starlink is very low orbit and they decay
without power in a matter of months if not weeks. Also every satellite
launched is required to have a deorbit plan or a plan to move it to a parking
orbit if it's a geostationary satellite.

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jhayward
Update: No collision happened.

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toper-centage
Relevant video from kurtzgesagt:
[https://youtu.be/yS1ibDImAYU](https://youtu.be/yS1ibDImAYU)

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lutorm
It appears Aerospace Corp is calculating a 10% collision probability now...

