

Calculating the Long-term Value of a Bitcoin - joewee
http://www.tristara.com/blog/2013/calculating-value-bitcoin/

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Choronzon
Ha, If bitcoin has 10% chance of succeeding it is worth 13k? No,politely just
no. Read the following and reassess.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Petersburg_paradox>

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joewee
I don't understand how this disproves that the value could be $13K in the
future?

St. Petersburg paradox seems to say: calculate the maximum cost vs Expected
Value.

So if we assume that bitcoin has a future EV of $1000 buying it at $130 would
be a +EV decision with a 10% chance of success. If it has a 1% chance of
reaching $13K buying at $130 is still +EV.

What I'm I not understanding?

