
The Dirty Secrets of ‘Clean’ Electric Vehicles - jonbaer
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tilakdoshi/2020/08/02/the-dirty-secrets-of-clean-electric-vehicles/
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imtringued
The article is way too "optimistic" and uses that to fuel pessimism. If the UK
suddenly replaced all cars with EVs then the electric gird would be lagging
behind which drags down EVs more than necessary. If you give the grid time to
reduce its carbon intensity then EVs will reduce emissions by significantly
more than 25%.

The article also makes a dishonest comparison using coal power. The UK barely
has any coal power. You can't pretend to only look at the UK and then use some
fictional worst case that doesn't exist inside it.

There are also some unknown aspects that cannot be predicted. If all cars in
the UK were EVs then it would be possible to do demand side management of
power where EVs primarily charge when renewables are available. There could be
significantly less curtailment of renewables.

The resource intensity of EVs is definitively an area that needs improvement.
Cobalt free batteries need to become the standard. Alternatives to copper
based motors need to be found such as aluminum based induction motors (less
efficient but more plentiful). I'm not really seeing the problem with Lithium
though. It's kinda like worrying in 1900 how we are going to produce 35
billion barrels of oil per year. The reason why production of lithium is
constrained is that there is basically no demand for it right now.

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vixen99
Summary: 'it doesn't compute!'

Quote from the article:

"if we replace all of the UK vehicle fleet with EVs, assuming they use the
most resource-frugal next-generation batteries, we would need the following
materials: about twice the annual global production of cobalt; three quarters
of the world’s production lithium carbonate; nearly the entire world
production of neodymium; and more than half the world’s production of copper
in 2018. "

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lazyjones
So, we supposedly need twice the annual global production of cobalt to replace
all of the UK fleet, but nobody seriously expects this to happen within a
year. Average age of cars in Europe is somewhere between 7 and 9 years and it
takes 10-15 years at least to replace the whole vehicle fleet unless you want
the government to give away cars for free.

Phony, sensationalisy calculations like you'd expect from a tabloid.

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ppf
>Phony, sensationalisy calculations like you'd expect from a tabloid.

I don't think it's so bad - it definitely gives some sense of scale. The UK is
just one country - even if you spread replacement over 15 years, there's still
the rest of the world to consider. It also infers a second point, that is,
there will be nothing left (unless mineral extraction is massively increased)
to construct the various renewable energy systems needed to make this
"sustainable", or in fact, make anything else at all but EVs.

(I put "sustainable" in quotes, because in my opinion, there is absolutely
nothing sustainable about dedicating the entire world's mineral production for
many years to personal transport).

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lazyjones
> _it definitely gives some sense of scale._

It clearly attempts to give a bad sense of it.

> _It also infers a second point, that is, there will be nothing left (unless
> mineral extraction is massively increased) to construct the various
> renewable energy systems needed to make this "sustainable"_

Mineral extraction increases all the time and so does recycling. Cobalt
extraction in particular doubled in the last 10 years and Cobalt use in EV is
decreasing steadily.

The article just tries to make something easily feasible look futile.

~~~
ppf
>The article just tries to make something easily feasible look futile.

Assuming we still need minerals for all the existing stuff we use, then we
have to approximately double that just to manufacture enough EVs to replace
cars in Europe, and probably quadruple it to cover Europe and the US. I have
no idea how much would be needed to manufacture the wind turbines,
hydroelectric generators, solar panels, etc, but I would assume it's about the
same order of magnitude. So, we are looking at needing nearly 10x the annual
production of the minerals mentioned, just to supply Europe and the US with
EVs over the next 15 years. I don't see how you can call that feasible.

I also don't understand why boosting mineral extraction is so casually
mentioned - I suppose externalizing pollution is one of the main benefits of
EVs. Cobalt mining in particular is no joke.

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iNerdier
While many of the points in the article have some truth to them many are
misleading or outright avoid direct comparison.

The most telling point however is at the end:

‘I have worked in the oil and gas sector as an economist in both private
industry and in think tanks, in Asia, the Middle East and the US over the past
25 years.’

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youngtaff
Seems increasingly clear that we need far more mass transit solutions rather
than everyone owning a car

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ppf
Absolutely. The "unsustainable" part of car ownership is not where the energy
comes from.

