
Beijing says military could intervene in Hong Kong - onetimemanytime
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-07-24/beijing-strikes-ominous-tone-saying-military-could-intervene-in-hong-kong
======
komali2
>In response, Ho posted a Facebook video making death threats against pro-
democratic legislator Eddie Chu, who has spoken up against corruption in rural
areas in the past and argued with Ho on a local TV channel on Tuesday.

>Ho said Chu had “two paths” before him: “One is a path of being alive, one is
a path of not being alive. You must choose which path to take. Decide soon,”
he said.

Jesus it's gotten bad.

If ever there was a way to galvanize the populace, it's to do away with the
masquerade and just tell them "step in line or die."

~~~
k_sze
Native Chinese Hong Konger here.

I don't like Junius Ho myself, but I think the LA Times translation of that
quote is incorrect.

生路 and 死路 in Chinese don't literally mean "path of being alive" and "path of
being dead". They are figurative, more appropriately translated as "free/open
path" and "dead end". So Ho isn't really making threats about Chu's life, but
more like abstract "consequences", maybe legal, maybe career-wise, maybe
popularity-wise. Frankly, I don't know what Ho can do. I don't think Ho has
enough evidence that Chu's supporter(s) vandalized his parents' graves and
that Chu knows the exact perpetrator(s). Otherwise Ho would have provided that
evidence to the police and the police would have made arrests already.

------
remarkEon
A bunch of jawjacking in this thread about how the US should "intervene",
whatever that means.

He's a quick rehash of what the American military has been up to for the last
2 decades:

* Fighting a failing (read: failed) counter-insurgency, that has surely atrophied the necessary skills and experience of field-grade and above officers needed to fight great land and sea wars

* Mopping up the mess left from the above

I don't doubt the fighting ability of the line infantryman (I was one), but
this idea that we could do _anything_ about Hong Kong without engaging in a
full-scale war is ludicrous. It ignores a) the actual military engagements
this country has gotten into for the last 20 years, and b) the actual geo-
political situation in the region. Perhaps consider what strategic interest to
the United States Hong Kong represents before advocating that we get into _yet
another endless war with nebulous objectives and mystical thinking about how
easy it would be_.

~~~
JumpCrisscross
> _this idea that we could do anything about Hong Kong without engaging in a
> full-scale war is ludicrous_

Fighting a land war against China for Hong Kong is ludicrous. Making a second
Tiananmen Square painful for Beijing is not.

From sanctions, to weapons sales to Taiwan _et al_ , to providing protesters
and resistance pockets with intelligence, there are options. Whether they’re
worth it is the question.

~~~
remarkEon
I mean, we're already in a trade war with them. I'm struggling to understand
why, after 50+ years of trying the same thing over and over again and seeing
downright _horrible_ results across 3 continents, people still advocate the
tried and true method of "just send in CIA".

~~~
sametmax
American medias have been singing the power of the US for so long now that
their population really believe they are capable fixing everything with their
hammer.

------
jwilbs
A few weeks ago, I never would have expected China to profess/commit violence
openly, just because of the comparatively open press in Hong Kong + ubiquity
of cell phones.

After the triad attacks, and now this, I’m worried how far China will go to
suppress any unrest.

FWIW, any Americans looking to (try to) help may write their Congress
representatives to support the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.

~~~
devoply
Yeah I think US should send troops, build a base, and annex Hong Kong.

~~~
PKop
I imagine you won't be signing up to fight in this war you envision others
fighting? Maybe _you_ should be sent, or perhaps your son?

~~~
devoply
With the sort of salaries US pays troops you could easily have a million mercs
lined up from all sorts of different countries by Thursday next week.

~~~
PKop
To do what exactly?

~~~
devoply
Liberate Hong Kong.

~~~
sametmax
You mean like the US liberated Iraq ?

EDIT: damn it, Irak (french) is spelled with a q in English.

~~~
NikolaeVarius
Innocent question why spell Iraq with a k I've never seen that before and
wondering if it has special meaning outside of just a way to spell it

~~~
edflsafoiewq
It's spelled that way in a lot of European languages.

------
majia
This is mostly rhetoric and political posturing. Chinese government has so far
refrained from taking any action. Beijing is not an benevolent actor, but is
smart enough to leave Hong Kong people alone and let Hong Kong people see for
themselves what a HK version of Arab Spring/Orange Revolution can deliver. If
the protests lead HK to a state of chaos and recession, Beijing will gain more
leverage.

~~~
JumpCrisscross
> _Beijing is not an benevolent actor, but is smart enough to leave Hong Kong
> people alone_

Nothing Xi has done in the past year with Hong Kong has been smart. It’s short
termed decision making, optimised for his political survival over the
country’s long-term interests.

When dictators’ economies slow, they tend to pick from one of two handbooks:
scapegoating a minority or launching pointless wars.

~~~
cdmckay
What has Xi done that you feel is in short-term interests?

~~~
JumpCrisscross
> _What has Xi done that you feel is in short-term interests?_

Most Hong Kongers, until recently, identified as Chinese moreso than Hong
Konger. The transition in 2047 would have been uneventful.

Now, Hong Kong is pissed off. Taiwan has seen the writing on the wall. China’s
multi-decade integration strategy must be rethought because Xi didn’t think he
could survive Hong Kongers criticising his leadership.

~~~
pas
Can we see the popularity graphs for the pro-Beijing party plummet in Taiwan?

------
austinheap
I'm afraid they've lost: there are patently zero countries with the political
will to defend Hong Kong.

~~~
Causality1
Smart approach would be offering blanket asylum status to Honk Kong residents.
The US could certainly use seven million educated, hardworking people.

~~~
barry-cotter
About 3.4m Hong Kong people have British National (Overseas) status and can
immigrate to the U.K. tomorrow should they wish to do so. I imagine a
substantial number of those not entitled to BNO are children of those who are
and would be able to migrate with their family if their entire family leaves.
All the Chinese who moved to Hong Kong after the handover are screwed however.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_National_(Overseas)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_National_\(Overseas\))

> Applicants were required to be British Dependent Territories citizens by a
> connection with Hong Kong.[30] While about 3.4 million people acquired the
> status,[41] 2.5 million non-BDTC residents (virtually all Chinese nationals)
> were ineligible.[42] Those ineligible who wished to register as BN(O)s were
> required to have been naturalised as Hong Kong-connected BDTCs by 31 March
> 1996. Acquiring Hong Kong BDTC status other than by birth was no longer
> possible after that date.[37]

~~~
vmlinuz
> About 3.4m Hong Kong people have British National (Overseas) status and can
> immigrate to the U.K. tomorrow should they wish to do so.

No, they can't. BN(O) was created pretty much exactly for the purpose of
allowing British Hong Kong citizens to retain their British passports
_without_ any sort of right of residency in the UK. The UK didn't want
millions of foreign refugees with a claim to residency to appear on their
doorstep any more than any other country would (have?)...

[https://www.gov.uk/types-of-british-nationality/british-
nati...](https://www.gov.uk/types-of-british-nationality/british-national-
overseas)

"you: are subject to immigration controls and do not have the automatic right
to live or work in the UK"

~~~
barry-cotter
You’re right.

------
dawhizkid
I have to say, these protests in Hong Kong have really surprised me. This is
my own prejudice speaking (as an American-born Taiwanese), but my wrong
assumption about young East Asians was they'd be too distracted, disaffected,
and generally uninterested in politics to have rallied like this.

~~~
idlewords
Do you see this as a cultural difference between Taiwan and Hong Kong, or a
misreading of the younger generation?

~~~
mtgx
From what I've seen it's the millennials, the ones who are supposed to be
disinterested about everything, who employ a high-level of activism.

Millennials seem set to ruin one more thing: government corruption. The
progressive revolution you see in the U.S. is also due to them.

~~~
H8crilA
It is always students that protest the most. Remember tiananmen square?
Remember protests in Soviet Union satellite countries? Framing it as a
millennials problem omits the actual pattern at work.

It is also not surprising. Who has the most incentive for long term
sensibility in nation management? People that have many years left to live. On
top of that students often live in ideological bubbles that are ripe with
underutilized manpower.

~~~
pas
Most of millennials are long out of school.

The pattern seems to be more about had that particular age cohort (generation)
already tried protesting? If no, they will try it. It usually doesn't succeed,
they will then never try it again.

Plus the students as you mentioned.

~~~
H8crilA
Interesting idea - each cohort wants to protest at least once.

------
King-Aaron
Don't worry, nothing happened in 1989 that might give some indication of what
the Chinese government is historically prepared to do to protesters.

~~~
jedmeyers
I just did a Google search from China and nothing is coming up. I guess you
are right, we should not worry as nothing had happened. information is
organized and is universally accessible and useful.

~~~
pas
Is Google accessible at all from mainland China?

------
Animats
Coverage in the South China Morning Post is better.[1]

[1]
[https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3019854/chi...](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3019854/chinese-
military-can-be-deployed-hong-kongs-request-contain)

~~~
facethrowaway
You just cited a newspaper owned by one of the richest members of the
Communist Party. Not exactly an unbiased news source.

[https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46353767](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46353767)

~~~
atr_gz
Yes, the ownership situation isn't great. But as someone following the Hong
Kong situation, I have to agree with Animats. They have the best coverage so
far - it's really quickly updated and pretty balanced.

------
cltsang
To the more fortunate among us who live in the civilized parts of the world:
please proactively fight for your democratic system and basic human rights.
They are hard-earned, but can be easily eroded.

------
ycombonator
They have experience with Tianenmen and got away with murdering their own
citizens before. [https://www.pulitzer.org/article/army-clears-tiananmen-
squar...](https://www.pulitzer.org/article/army-clears-tiananmen-square)

------
qbaqbaqba
Well done UK.

------
tangmonk
HK belongs to China

~~~
alasdair_
> HK belongs to China

And the USA belongs to Britain.

~~~
echaozh
No, to compare HK with US, you should first give US back to the native
Americans. The US belongs to the native Americans. It was a colony of the
Brits, and then inherited by other white colonists.

~~~
alasdair_
Seems fair. I assume you feel the same way about Tibet.

------
r00fus
Anyone not expecting this? It's fairly clear that the newest bridge to the
peninsula was directly intended to enable such intervention.

This is not a judgement against China, but a nation that plans massive
infrastructure projects, has a history of single-party rule (and rule by
dynastic monarchs) and also is responsible for the Uighur re-education camps,
doesn't really sound like a country unwilling to wield it's military might.

While it's citizenry and residents are much more diverse and identify not as
Chinese but seperate, HK has historically been part of China, and only really
a separate state/entity for a couple of centuries.

~~~
pm90
Using the military on an backwater province is different from deploying troops
to a dense city filled with millions of people. Not saying they might not
still do it, just pointing out that a PLA invasion of HK would command
significant attention and sympathy worldwide.

~~~
alasdair_
>Using the military on an backwater province is different from deploying
troops to a dense city filled with millions of people. Not saying they might
not still do it, just pointing out that a PLA invasion of HK would command
significant attention and sympathy worldwide.

And, sadly, like in Tienanmen Square, little would change.

The "international community" may condemn the violence and human rights abuses
but, well, the "international community" still does business in Saudi Arabia,
so the chance of the condemnation changing anything seems minimal.

~~~
luckydata
Tienanmen and how little the West leaned on China for that is the original sin
that led us to the current situation. It's essentially the West' fault for not
cutting ties and putting sanctions on China immediately after that. We're
paying the price for our cheap electronics.

~~~
pas
Agreed. Not because it would have helped much, but at least we wouldn't have
gotten into this dependency mess.

