
COVID19-Expert Judgmental Forecast-Survey4-20200310.pdf (2020) - nabla9
https://works.bepress.com/mcandrew/1/
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Results from Survey 4 (administered March 9-10, 2020)

1\. Experts predict a four-fold rise in reported cases in the US over the next
week. They predict 1819 total cases (80% uncertainty interval: 823-6204 cases)
of COVID-19 will be reported by the CDC on Monday March 16th, more than 4
times the CDC reported number of cases as of Monday, March 9th.

2\. The majority of experts (20/21, 95%) expect COVID-19 will reach community-
level spread in the US

3\. Experts expect that community-level spread will occur in the US within 3
weeks (80% uncertainty interval: 0-10 weeks).

4\. Experts anticipate 44 US states will report cases of COVID-19 within one
week (80% uncertainty interval: 39-48 states).

5\. Experts believe that only 13% (80% uncertainty interval: 4-30%) of all
COVID-19 infections (symptomatic and asymptomatic) in the US were reported to
the CDC as of Monday, March 9th. This implies that as of the beginning of this
week there were between 1410 and 10575 undiagnosed infections with COVID-19 in
the US.

6\. Experts believe that nationwide hospitalizations for COVID-19 will peak in
May.

7\. The above results include answers from 21 experts. Experts who have
participated in the survey twice are listed in the table below. The names of
those who participated this week are in bold

