
Trump says he's prepared to slap tariffs on all $500B in Chinese imports to U.S - slysssassa
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/07/20/trump-threatened-slap-tariffs-all-505-b-chinese-imports/805700002/
======
enitihas
Correct me if I am wrong here, but I think a non democratic country like China
will always have the upper hand in trade wars against a democratic one like
the US, all else being relatively equal. They can always target politically
sensitive agricultural produce in the swing states. I think the farmer vote in
the US is quite significant. And the Chinese government does not need to worry
about elections in the short term.

~~~
theandrewbailey
The problem is that China built its economy on exports and relies on them, but
the US doesn't.

Also, I bet that farmers like Trump a hell of a lot more than they like
selling to the Chinese.

~~~
gremlinsinc
China's leaders have enough money, they could hunker down for a decade and not
export anything and still be successful. The people would starve, and there'd
probably be some put out of there misery, it'd be a humanitarian nightmare,
but China is a dictatorship and will wither the storm better than we will, and
face it America will cave as soon as we have a competent leader who repeals
the tariffs and fixes our geopolitical status.

------
Leary
What's he gonna say? "I'm not ready to slap more tariffs?" This is entirely
expected.

~~~
ianai
I almost hope his self created recession/depression hits sooner than later.
Possibly nothing else will affect his polling.

~~~
urmish
You'd rather see your own country go into economic depression than Trump's
decision working out? How are you so certain that tariffs on China are a bad
idea?

~~~
ianai
Tariffs lead to market inefficiency and failures. I’m only voicing statistical
likelihood. People also largely vote based on the economy - which is itself
its own falsehood, but beside the point.

The thing I would like to see is Trump, the extremist right wing, and Russian
influence driven from power.

Unfortunately, this guy is also the slippery character that always chickens
out before he meets his fate. Someone will eventually convince him tariffs
will push him out of power and he’ll reneg. He is the pathological case that
leads the self balancing system to destruction.

~~~
cameldrv
I agree that Trump is a Russian agent, it's more than clear at this point.

Economically though, the same theories that say that tariffs are economically
inefficient say that running a $400 billion trade deficit for twenty years
straight should be impossible. If you go back to first principles and some
basic economic observations, it's fairly obvious that the trade policy of the
U.S. over the past 40 years has not served the interests of a large majority
of the American public, i.e. it is economically inefficient from the U.S.
perspective. Trump wasn't elected by Putin, even if Putin did push him the
last few yards over the goal line. If the Democrats are going to win, they
need to be the party of truth and standing up for all Americans instead of
just opposite-day Trump.

~~~
perl4ever
My understanding is that a trade deficit is equivalent to an investment
_surplus_. So a long-running trade deficit just means foreigners have been
investing on net in the US for a long time.

One day the President is complaining about the trade deficit and the next he's
saying the US needs more foreign investment. I don't think you can coherently
hold these grievances together. But if foreign investment is good right now,
then the trade deficit must be good.

~~~
fellellor
My knowledge of these topics isn't very deep. But the fact that the deficit is
in USD should make this case different. The US is overspending in a resource
that it has complete control of, so the impact of that behavior should be
quite different from what a typical borrower would experience.

~~~
gremlinsinc
It's not like the US can just print more money when it needs it, it needs to
raise taxes to account for money, to put money in it's bank account. Printing
more money can upset the scales of deflation/inflation.. I'm not an economist,
so can't say more than that.

~~~
fellellor
I think that's what happens in the case of regular world economies who don't
have the luxury of a reserve currency.

But if the US really did need to do all that accounting then how come they've
accumulated a debt of 20 trillion?

I'm not saying that the US economy is completely immune, but they certainly
seem more immune than other economies.

~~~
perl4ever
There are other countries with a higher debt/GDP ratio, so I'm not sure what
facts lead you to assume the US is the sort of outlier that demands a special
explanation. The number $20T does not seem meaningful in a vacuum.

