

China On Track to Exceed Targets, Install 140 GW of Wind Capacity by 2015 - mtgx
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/china-on-track-to-exceed-targets-install-140-gw-of-wind-capacity-by-2015

======
antr
This article is link bait + self promotion by GTM.

Having been involved for years in the energy industry I can assure anyone that
GTM is not a known "research" company (hence not trustworthy). The "gold
standard" for wind capacity installation, projections, etc., is the Global
Wind Energy Council (GWEC), hands down. GWEC states in their most recent 2012
China report that _"By 2015, the installed wind power capacity [in China] will
reach 100GW."_

Source: [http://www.gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/China-
Outlook...](http://www.gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/China-
Outlook-2012-EN.pdf)

China's installed capacity in 2011 was 62.4GW. In 2012 it is projected that
another 15-18GW will be installed; that's 80.4GW by year end 2012 (on the high
end). If 150GW is expected by 2015, a _net_ average of 23.GW need to be
installed per year. That installation rate is unrealistic due to manufacturing
constraints.

~~~
melling
Regardless, it's interesting how China is accelerating past the US on the
world stage. Clean energy, high speed rail, etc. So, much is accomplished in
so little time. One example, that always sticks in my mind:

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Metro>

I wonder how that couple miles of the Second Avenue Subway is coming along?

~~~
rollo_tommasi
It's easy to build infrastructure quickly when you don't have to bother with
property rights, worker safety or environmental impact assessments.

~~~
muhfuhkuh
Eminent Domain is a very real and oft-used legal power that is given,
especially by individual states in the US to seize property for whatever
"public use" those governments deem worthy, including (but not limited to)
road widening, infrastructure (sewer, electric, telecom fibre) improvements,
and even private enterprise that trumps individual rights "for the greater
good".

Please don't think that China holds exclusive dominion over such a concept.

~~~
prawn
I don't know that the two would be quite the same in practice though. It's
likely that public reaction would be more of an issue in the US, etc?

------
argon
If any embedded software hackers are interested in an exciting wind energy
related job, check out: <http://www.makanipower.com/careers/current-job-
openings/>

------
fspeech
Some thoughts on the efficiency and economics of Chinese wind power:

Reported grid consumption of wind generated power was 100Twh or 100Gkwh. At
the end of 2011 installed capacity (grid-connected) was about 47GW, which
should have grown to about 60GW by the end of 2012. I will take 50GW as the
average producing number, so on average each kW of installed capacity produced
about 2000kwh worth of electricity. In other words the average wind mill runs
about 2000 hours a year, slightly less than 6 hours a day. Compared to the
load factor of a nuclear generator of 90% or better we need 4GW of installed
wind power to replace 1GW of base load power (like nuclear).

At 5.5c per kwh of electricity (wholesale) the wind industry generated 5.5
billion dollars worth of economic value. Averaged over the assumed 50GW
producing capacity that is about 11c per installed Watt. There should be some
operating cost so let's say 10c net operating. Assume the equipment
depreciates over 30 years then at $1 per W installed you can get about 6.7%
return on asset; at $1.5 per W (current US cost) the return is only 3.3%; at
$2 per W (2009 US) 1.7%. With 5% financing you can leverage the 6.7% ROA to
8.3% ROE by using 50% debt.

There was an extra 20Gkwh of abandoned wind generated electricity (or 20% of
what is consumed) due to transmission/consumption limitations. So the
potential economics could be better.

I used the unsubsidized wholesale power price of 5.5c per kwh as the proxy for
the economic value of wind power. It can be argued that wind should be worth
less because it is less reliable and tends to be located farther away from
population centers. It can also be argued that wind should be worth more
because it is clean. In reality wind power probably sells for more due to
subsidy.

Wind power appears to be marginally to somewhat profitable in China assuming
China can achieve lower all-in installation cost than the US, without explicit
subsidy (same wholesale price) but with likely policy support (utilities would
otherwise prefer more reliable/convenient power sources at the same price).
Since US wholesale price is lower and installation cost higher, wind power
would require subsidy in the US to be economical unless a much higher load
factor than 6 hours per day can be achieved.

------
meaty
Capacity, when it's windy, which it isn't always. They should quote a range
from min to max.

~~~
antr
installed capacity (e.g. MW) != production (e.g. MWh)

------
schainks
The real question to ask here is how much of this is connected to the grid?
China's current 5 year plan is trying to build the wires to connect this wind.
As of 2012, barely 10% of all built wind was even connected to the grid...

