
Ask HN: How do you deal with uncertainty? - selmat
We live in dynamic world. How do you deal in uncertainty which is everywhere. In business, work, health, financial planning?<p>Is it only state of mind, or can we really deal with? Do you use risk management approach?
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medntech
My personal example. I'm betting four years of medical school loans that I can
successfully complete med school, residency, and find a job. There is a lot of
uncertainty in pursuing a medical degree. What if I didn't make it into med
school? I have a four year biochem degree.. a field I don't want to work in. I
was almost faced with that after two years of applying and finally making it
in. Okay.. now what? Four years of medical school, hundred exams that I can
possibly fail, license exams I can fail, bad evals I can receive. Even after
that, it is more uncertain.

The only way I can "deal" with this is thinking of it in terms of a
risk/reward analysis. I'll start with some variables.

Variables:

\- The graduation rate / residency placement rate is around 90%+. What happens
with 10%?

\- Salary in a mid competitive field is $300K+ USD in areas that aren't
expensive (Nevada?). What if I did computer science instead? 130K in Seattle?
What if I didn't land a job?

\- Loans are around 350K at 6.5%. What if I fail and can't pay them off?

\- Employment rates of doctors vs CS? Job security?

\- Ability to leave medicine and go into computer science?

\- Etc.

My risk is I fail and it takes me 25 years to get out of debt... by then I'm
an old man. That is a pretty big risk. My reward is job security for the rest
of my life. Gamble? ~10% odds I end up failing. Pretty low risk, but
everything in the med field is filled with uncertainty. A few years from now I
might be the guy making 40K with an MD next to my name, I might not.

The question to ask yourself, is the uncertainty worth the reward? Be
reasonable and analyze the risk involved.

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mark_biotasks
Read "The Lean Startup" by Eric Reis. It's entire premise is dealing with
uncertainty.

