
Scoble says Google Glass is doomed - stigsfoot
https://plus.google.com/+Scobleizer/posts/1UfNLdZAN4h
======
Crito
My bet is on Google Glass going the way of the Segway...

...that is to say, ridiculed by the general public, but finding a bit of a
niche in certain industries. The police, postal carriers, etc. @cstross did a
pretty good job of convincing me that some form of augmented reality would be
very useful for the police. There is a real-life push right now to get police
wearing cameras too, I think this sort of device could compliment that trend.

~~~
tlrobinson
I think if someone can succeed at putting similar technology in normal looking
glasses it will have a much better chance of success, otherwise I agree.

~~~
Crito
That would help, but I am not confident that it could be made as socially
acceptable as for example smartphones.

People who prioritize utility over fashion are prime candidates though. Even
nerds who claim to be all about utility are typically more fashion conscious
than they want to admit, but when you are on the job being all about utility
stops being a fashion faux pas. Utility belts are perfectly acceptable for
people to wear when they are working, but you never see them otherwise (well,
maybe the odd cellphone belt-clip..). I think that people who wear utility
belts for work are a great target audience for this sort of thing.

I think they should focus on industrial use. That has the potential to be a
stable market for them that they can use for widespread testing of hardware
and applications. Use police to keep the ball rolling until they figure out a
way to get the general public on board.

~~~
_delirium
> That would help, but I am not confident that it could be made as socially
> acceptable as for example smartphones.

I wonder if a classic-style cameraless HUD could alleviate some of the social
issues while still retaining enough of the functionality. I mean it'd still
take a certain kind of person to wear it, but people who wouldn't wear it who
are actively _angry at / frightened of_ Google Glass, rather than merely
indifferent to it, seem to be so mostly because of the possibility that the
person wearing it could be recording them at any time, without outwardly
visible signs (while recording someone by holding up your smartphone is
typically pretty obvious). The HUD itself doesn't seem to particularly anger
people.

On the other hand, if some devices come with cameras and others don't, people
with the no-recording versions might still suffer the same stigma, if the
average person can't tell at a glance which is which.

~~~
MBCook
Removing the camera (+mic) would certainly fix the creepiness for me. Even
then, it's still a bit of a problem. The person I'm talking to could just be
looking at their Google Glass. It provides a new way to be obnoxious and self-
centered, which sadly many people will take.

Truthfully, my willpower isn't that great. I might be one of them if I had
Google Glass.

~~~
_delirium
It was definitely a somewhat weird experience the first time I talked to
someone who was wearing something vaguely like this. I had a grad-school
interview with Thad Starner
([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thad_Starner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thad_Starner))
in 2004. He had a DIY eyepiece he wore everywhere, with a chording keyboard
slung on one side near his waist. The whole interview was filled with these
weird moments of, "so is he making eye contact, or looking at something in his
eyepiece?"

It was sort of an uncanny-valley thing where we were having a face-to-face
conversation, but I was not quite sure which of the normal face-to-face cues
applied. I don't at all mind different kinds of conversations, but to me an IM
or IRC chat feel much more comfortable, because you just switch to a
completely different interaction mode. Not necessarily less nuanced if it's
people who are "fluent" at chat, but different, so it doesn't feel uncanny in
the same way. Might be something I'd get used to with more experience, though.

------
alan_cx
Biggest problem I see is in many places and situations, some one even
suspected of poking a camera in peoples faces are likely to lose that camera.
Maybe be gain a few bruises in return. I know full well that I would not be
even slightly comfortable being in view of some one wearing these things. I
mean, I don't like the NSA slurping all my data, why on Earth am I going to
accept people wearing these things around me? Yeah, claim its some how
different, but that isn't going to cut any ice whatsoever with me. Its a
camera stealing my image and associated metadata and putting that information
out of my control. I don't want people poking those damn things in my
direction.

Of course, from a user sort of a well cool gadget POV, I do think its rather
cool and would happily have a go on one my self.

So, while I see the merits, I think there will be a huge social problem, which
may well negate mass take up. As another poster said, what may well happen is
that they will be used in lots of specific situations, rather than be a
general use thing. I know I'd probably like using it for specific things, or
as a toy or gadget, but out and about? No, Im too pretty..... ;)

------
Havoc
Something about the authors writing style just rubs me the wrong way. Kinda
like an advert that was carefully crafted by a team with the sole purpose of
triggering a specific emotion.

That being said, I did actually learn something from that wall of text: The
fact that Glass needs to be specifically fitted to the wearer is definitely
problematic. I'm curious how G will work around that from a logistical PoV.

~~~
kordless
It's Scoble. I guarantee he's not carefully crafting anything other than his
own thoughts. I appreciate the fact he calls out his emotions in his posts -
why blame him for your own emotional response to reading it?

~~~
Havoc
>I guarantee he's not carefully crafting anything other than his own thoughts.

With ~5 mil readers I suspect he is indeed taking the reader's potential
reaction into account and adjusting his writing accordingly.

>why blame him for your own emotional response to reading it

I was commenting on the impression that it create rather than blaming anyone
for anything.

~~~
SimHacker
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emotional_labor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emotional_labor)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affective_labor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affective_labor)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superficial_charm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superficial_charm)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impression_management](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impression_management)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_branding](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_branding)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reputation_capital](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reputation_capital)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ingratiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ingratiation)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narcissistic_supply](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narcissistic_supply)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_manipulation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_manipulation)

------
mark_l_watson
I find it amusing that he uses G+ to write about it.

I agree that cost is important. $500 is probably way too high, considering
what $500 buys in fun gadgets.

They should also have a visible light to indicate when the camera is active.

~~~
dredmorbius
_I find it amusing that he uses G+ to write about it._

Why? Scoble's been very active on G+ since it was made public. Too active, if
you've got him in your Circles. I eventually shunted him to a "Voluble" circle
I'd check periodically, relying more on his better posts to appear when
forwarded to my Stream. When he's good, he's really, really good, but
typically also critical, mostly he's just average but with the hyperbole and
volume: overwhelming.

Scoble's also been one of the more astute critics of a number of Google's
offerings. Google has the virtue of operating at Google Scale. Scoble does
social networking at Scoble Scale. Issues which might not faze most users (or
which might get brushed off when the technorati gripe about the, yr. humble
author raises his hand) tend to get noticed by Scoble. He's griped about noise
and distraction on G+ since the beginning. Various notifications, calendar /
events, and moderation issues have been championed by him.

I've left G+ (for numerous reasons, mostly concerning privacy:
[http://redd.it/1u356d](http://redd.it/1u356d)), but Scoble's been a
reasonable exemplar of the platform and both its strengths and weaknesses.

 _Edit:_ More goodness sensing makes words.

~~~
anigbrowl
_a "Voluble" circle_

:-D

------
codva
He proclaimed it the next big thing just 8 months ago.
[https://plus.google.com/+Scobleizer/posts/ZLV9GdmkRzS](https://plus.google.com/+Scobleizer/posts/ZLV9GdmkRzS)

Then, he is wrong often.
[http://odonnellweb.com/pelican/posts/2013/Apr/google-
glass-i...](http://odonnellweb.com/pelican/posts/2013/Apr/google-glass-is-not-
all-that/)

~~~
berberous
While I admit his first review was comically hyperbolic, he really hasn't
changed his view very much. In both posts, he states that the price point is
critical. In this new post, he merely states that it will not hit the right
price point in 2014. His last sentence:

"By 2020 I'm quite convinced this will be a big deal and there will be lots of
competitors by then. So, if you make it about 2020, then it isn't doomed. If
it's about beating the Apple iWatch in 2014? Yes, totally doomed.﻿"

------
37prime
To me scoble is an attention whore. Does anyone remember this image of Scoble
wearing Google Glass? [http://sitegoals.com/wp-
content/uploads/2013/12/904635_10201...](http://sitegoals.com/wp-
content/uploads/2013/12/904635_10201170157240187_622813635_o.jpg)

~~~
jevinskie
What is the context from that photo? What are you trying to imply from it? It
strikes me as simply a funny photo. I don't see how it warrants name calling.

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cowardlyanon
I hope Google Glass is a bait-and-switch. It's a low-resolution UI and they
are getting constant user feedback of how users are using it (e.g voice vs
touch usage). I hope what really is happening is that its driving the design
for Google's Watch.

However, post-Snowden I don't see myself using either.

------
kispester
I can think of so many things that can go wrong from sexual harassment
lawsuits to a samsung-or-other-made battery exploding in the face of the user.

------
Segmentation
1\. Has to have a light to indicate recording, or everyone around you will be
paranoid. (Most people will still be paranoid, but at least you can say "No
red light, it's not recording!").

2\. Will probably be very popular as a cyclist camera. Cyclist who just want a
decent 720p camera to record cycling activity (evidence against dangerous
drivers), but don't want to attach a dorky camera to their head (i.e. GoPro),
will like the Google Glass -- assuming it can fix onto cycling glasses. Also,
having GPS/Strava/heart-rate/cadence all on your Google Glass will be awesome
for cyclist. (and runners)

~~~
dreamfactory
This whole light thing seems a bit out of proportion, like being paranoid of
people wearing shades in case they are eyeing you up (which is more than half
the reason anyone wears them in the first place).

~~~
a3n
I recall reading that a lot of women wear sunglasses so that you can't make
eye contact with them, as a lot of men use eye contact aggressively.

------
michaelwww
"You know who wears sunglasses indoors? Blind people and assholes." \-- Larry
David

It's curious that people don't mind hearing aids or wouldn't mind "Google Ear"
if there were such a thing. They don't mind recording devices on cell phones
in pockets. There's something about the modifying the eyes that upsets people.
I hate it when people wear weird contact lenses, such as the all black lenses.
I want to see your eyes unimpeded if I'm going to talk comfortably to you. I
want to see who you are and how you are reacting to me. Take you Google Glass
off, set it on the table and point it at me. I don't care. Just don't wear it
when you're talking to me.

~~~
pseut
Um… bluetooth earpieces? See them left in lately?

~~~
michaelwww
I think that's more of an ego thing that people don't like, such as, "I get a
lot of important phone calls, so I might have to stop talking to you and start
talking to the person in my ear at any moment." Maybe it's the same with
Glass. I don't know.

------
gress
Glass is already successful. It was the most written about tech product in
2013, deflecting attention away from Apple and reminding people that Google
can still be innovative.

~~~
jfoster
I agree with your sentiment, but I wouldn't call it successful until they've
translated the interest into sales to users who are not early adopters.

------
source99
What is the purpose/point of google glass?

From 97% of news articles / reviews google glass is a voice activated camera.
While this is mildly interesting it's the only use anyone has for the device.
Who cares about this feature? It's not especially new, exciting or a good user
experience.

If google could distill google glass into a single statement like "1000 songs
in your pocket" we might understand it.

What is the equivalent statement for google glass?

~~~
leoc
I would have said "hands-free city navigation", but everyone - Google, the
"explorers", people who meet them in the street - seems to be preoccupied with
the photo/video applications. I don't know if that's because the device is
actually defective for that purpose in some unobvious way, or because people
just can't look beyond the video-recording use (or if not that, the
notification-firehose one).

------
ams6110
(continuing his list)

11\. You might as well carry a huge banner that says "I'm a giant nerd." You
know how normal people start fidgeting and looking around for someone else to
talk to the moment you mention that you work with computers? If you're wearing
Google Glass, you won't even get to the hello.

~~~
daeken
I've been wearing Google Glass every time I leave the house for 2 or 3 months
now. My social interactions have certainly changed; lots of people either
recognize it as Glass or ask about what it is.

Bear in mind that this isn't in the valley, but in a fairly conservative part
of CT. I'd be willing to bet that the vast majority of negative experiences
while wearing Glass have far more to do with the wearer than the hardware.

------
throwwit
I'd say the core concept isn't doomed, but amongst the 'lean-back' (tv, dvd)
and 'lean-in' (Laptop, tablet) UI modalities: the 'in-your-face' glass
modality is certainly going to have a struggle balancing age old social norms
with disruptive tech. Especially when there are good reasons for the social
norms.

------
fredgrott
hmm, yeah but remember folks, Scoble dissed Apple's iPhone chances too :)

------
nashequilibrium
This is the problem people have with glass, they feel like their privacy is
being invaded and it is not solving a painpoint. So google is going to know
who i am looking at and what products i am looking at.... come on, this is
ridiculous! I need to feel that this is a utility not something of excess i do
not need. This can help doctors as info on pubmed quickly, collaborate with
other docters quicker especially in urgent care. But telling that it is going
to know who and what i am looking at, my intoxication etc, just does not make
me want it. Imagine if Jobs marketed iphone as a way to take creepshots of
females or the supposition of anything like that.

6\. The really scary thing? The eye sensor. There's a reason why +Larry Page
didn't answer my question at last year's Google IO: that thing can probably
tell whether you are drunk or sober (think about THAT tonight). It also can
probably tell you when you are checking out someone you shouldn't be (wait
until the wife gets an alert about THAT). Of course Google will use it to tell
what brands you are checking out at the grocery store (coupon alert) or when
you are shopping in a shopping mall.

~~~
Crito
The privacy thing is really a big deal, it cannot be underplayed. You can
probably get the public to buy into it for police, since you can sell the _"
it will keep the police honest"_ angle, but I cannot think of any painpoint
that it would solve for the general public, when worn by the general public.

As for _Google Ogle-detection_ ™... I think the solution there is probably
relationship counselling. That's basically an extension of the _" my
smartphone's GPS will allow my wife to track my every movement"_ problem.
Trust and respect will remain as important as ever in relationships in the
future.

~~~
nashequilibrium
I don;t know if u downvoted me, but what u saying is exactly what i am saying,
the privacy issue is a big issue and they keep on piling on features that are
creepy. I wish the first version did not have the ability to take record
videos or take pics but to only display video and pics. Then the public and
public places like restaurants would have been more accepting, but the cat is
already out of the bag, so we will see how this unfolds.

~~~
Crito
I did not downvote you, I agree with your point about privacy.

