
Mercedes Readies First Tesla Rival in $12B Attack - antr
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-04/mercedes-readies-first-tesla-rival-in-12-billion-attack-plan
======
Shebanator
Meh. MB are planning to _start_ production sometime in 2H2019, and no real
details about the capabilities of the car. Meanwhile Porsche's Taycan will
cost more than the Model S while having Model 3-like specs. The new Audi
e-tron will also have 250 mile range and a 6 sec 0-60, both worse than the
Tesla Model X.

Meanwhile Tesla has another 16 months or so to keep selling the Model 3 in
large quantities. Color me unimpressed by the german companies' efforts thus
far.

It is telling though that most of the companies are focusing on SUVs and not
sedans. Tesla needs to up its game with the X and Y to address this.

~~~
samstave
I literally want a large Tesla Camper Van.

Or at least one of these in Tesla:

[https://www.mercedes-benz-vans.ca/en/sprinter-4x4/cargo-
van](https://www.mercedes-benz-vans.ca/en/sprinter-4x4/cargo-van)

EDIT:

To further this thought, what I would truly wish would happen would be that A
Tesla-like "drivetrain platform" were available to boutique shops who could
build whatever type of cab they wanted onto a standardized system.

I worked with a guy in the 90s that took a Corvette Z base and put a 1938 ford
on top of it.

I'd like to have the same be done with Tesla drive train bases - where you can
have an upper made to fit the lower. Clearly, there would have to be safety
standards to be met, so don't waste time arguing that point...

~~~
mikestew
How about an electric VW van? [https://www.caranddriver.com/news/volkswagen-
id-buzz-ev-conc...](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/volkswagen-id-buzz-ev-
concept-photos-and-info-news)

Supposedly goes into production in 2022, and I can't imagine they won't kit
some kind of camper version. If not, Sportsmobile or someone, and worst case
is you build it out yourself. We're seriously thinking about one to replace
what will be an old first-year Leaf and a 2005 Scion xB. Combine DogMobile and
electric into one vehicle. :-)

~~~
Vinnl
Here's a non-tracking article on (presumably) the same car accessible to EU
visitors:
[https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2017/08/19/volkswag...](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2017/08/19/volkswagen-
microbus-id-buzz/583225001/)

If that picture is correct, though, it doesn't seem to resemble the old van
enough to be appealing, IMHO. Like many pre-Tesla electric cars, it seems like
it's going for that "futuristic" look...

~~~
singingboyo
I think there's a market for something like it, but I'd argue the Buzz's
success hinges more on whether the market is big enough, and whether the car
is capable of long trips - they're associated with road trips as far as I
know, and no one wants a car for trips that doesn't get you there and back
without worry. (I suppose there are a few years for the charging situation to
improve, but I'm not counting on it.)

------
ChuckMcM
One of the interesting things that stuck out in this read was that Mercedes is
going to invest more money to make electric cars than Tesla has[1].

The superchargers are a weird thing. Tesla has been building them out of their
own investment pocket. Is Mercedes going to do that? Are we going to have
bespoke recharging stations competing for bits of commercial real estate? How
about parking lots where there are the 'mercedes spaces', 'nissan spaces',
'bmw spaces', and 'tesla spaces'? How does that work?

I think it is great that BMW and Mercedes are "seriously committed" to
electric cars, is now the time to seriously commit to some standards when it
comes to charging and maintenance? Will we see third party battery packs at
some point?

I keep thinking, is there an electric car market or is there a Tesla market?
Remember when tablets were just iPads and everything else kind of sucked (and
kind of still does?) Is that where we're going in the electric car space?

As you can tell I have way more questions than answers here. What does the
'flip' look like when automakers really flip over to electric as the
mainstream car?

[1] Jim Collins (who is a Tesla bear) notes 19B raised including the
acquisition of Solar City --
[https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2018/04/25/a-brief-h...](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2018/04/25/a-brief-
history-of-tesla-19-billion-raised-and-9-billion-of-negative-cash-
flow/#138b64f63d65)

~~~
joering2
> Is Mercedes going to do that?

One of top execs at MB is my good friend so I'm getting this information from
top source; he told me their idea is to go with replaceable batteries. You
will have some sort of docking station in your garage and when you park short-
term the car flips the batteries for you with a loaded one, or long term just
auto-plug itself and charges overnight. No cables, no mess.

They work on this solution together with Citroen and BMW but I cannot find
anything official or online. Ii will be offered to gas stations around the
country and will take 1/3rd of a space that car washes are taking currently.
Supposedly you won't even need to get out of the car - you just drive on it,
stop, wait for green light, continue with freshly loaded battery! Much more
comfortable solution than Tesla's stations.

BTW: I spend summers in Florida and looks like Teslas supercharges are
dissapearing; I seen plenty of them at all Wholefoods parking lots in number
of 10 or 16; now there is only one.

~~~
xedeon
> "You will have some sort of docking station in your garage and when you park
> short-term the car flips the batteries for you with a loaded one"

Are you serious? Tesla did this and presented a tech demo in 2013:

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY)

> "auto-plug itself and charges overnight. No cables, no mess."

Another Tesla tech demo:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMM0lRfX6YI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMM0lRfX6YI)

Also, what do you mean "superchargers disappearing?".

It seems that Tesla is way a head on a lot of things and it will take quite an
effort/investment for the incumbents to catch up.

Though in reality, wide EV adoption is a WIN for everybody and is actually the
core mission of Tesla, which is to "Accelerate Sustainable Transport"

~~~
athenot
> > "You will have some sort of docking station in your garage and when you
> park short-term the car flips the batteries for you with a loaded one"

> Are you serious? Tesla did this and presented a tech demo in 2013

Tesla seems to have faded it out of their roadmap. Cool tech but people seem
to want to own the battery since it's a sizeable part of the investment in a
car.

Europeans are different in that battery appears to be seen as a liability and
therefore leased.

At stake is how much fast charging you use, as that seems to be what has the
largest impact on the battery's life.

------
btilly
Just wait until it really sinks in for their dealers that selling electric
cars means greatly reduced maintenance. Given what fraction of their dealers'
revenue comes from maintenance, this will be a left hand doesn't know what the
right hand is doing kind of situation as the manufacturer and the dealer's
interests fail to align.

Tesla worked hard to avoid having dealers. And I believe that dealers will be
a weakness for the legacy auto industry here.

~~~
sremani
Yes, EVs have "low" maintenance but they are not without maintenance and other
usual car issues like A/C, accident related fixes etc.

Owning Tesla outside of Warranty is worse than owning Benz outside warranty.
Unless Tesla expands its support and does a better job with "ownership" and
"repairability" of their Cars, I would Trust an 8 year Benz to an 8 year old
Tesla .

~~~
close04
That dealer avoidance also means that fixing a Tesla (regardless of warranty)
might commonly become horror story [0]. And this drives insurance costs
through the roof [1]. Having a network that can provide proper support might
be more important than being able to make a sale when the product is shiny and
new.

[0] [http://fortune.com/2018/07/24/tesla-repair-
damage/](http://fortune.com/2018/07/24/tesla-repair-damage/)

[1] [http://www.thedrive.com/news/23278/report-tesla-
model-3-insu...](http://www.thedrive.com/news/23278/report-tesla-
model-3-insurance-approaches-porsche-911-costs)

~~~
Diederich
> And this drives insurance costs through the roof

One bit of anecdata: full coverage on my 2017 Model S 100D (all options except
performance) is only slightly higher than full coverage on the car it
replaced: a 2014 Prius C with no options.

I was bracing for the worst, Re: insurance, but (I'm with Geico) the rate
is...in my mind at least, very low. Perhaps they're factoring in all of the
built-in safety features?

~~~
Sohcahtoa82
I'll piggyback this to add my own anecdata.

I pay about $95/month for Progressive insurance on my $28,000 Subaru BRZ. I
got a quote on a $135,000 Tesla Model S P100D, and for the same coverage (Full
coverage + Liability with moderate deductibles), it was $140/month.

~~~
drawnwren
The BRZ is a low end sports car frequently bought and wrecked by teenage
drivers. Unless we know your age, driving history, zip code, miles driven per
year, etc etc... we don't have the picture the insurance companies do.

Here's some actual data: USA Today found the Tesla Model S to be _the most
expensive_ car to insure. [1] This was apparently such a problem that Electrek
reported Tesla was considering starting their own insurance company. [2] Both
of these articles are from 2018.

1:
[https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/budget-...](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/budget-
and-spending/2018/05/25/25-most-expensive-cars-to-insure/35234533/) 2:
[https://electrek.co/2018/05/29/tesla-insuremytesla-
insurance...](https://electrek.co/2018/05/29/tesla-insuremytesla-insurance-
model-s-most-expensive-car/)

~~~
Sohcahtoa82
> The BRZ is a low end sports car frequently bought and wrecked by teenage
> drivers.

I certainly don't doubt that at all. 200 HP isn't a lot, but combined with
being rear-wheel drive and coming with economy tires, it's enough to get you
into trouble if you're stupid.

I'm 36 though and bought it because I wanted a car that has some pep when I
want it, and good fuel economy when I don't. I average 33.5 mpg when it's
stickered at 24 city/30 highway!

> Here's some actual data: USA Today found the Tesla Model S to be _the most
> expensive_ car to insure.

What I'm hearing is that the area I'm in generally just has really cheap
insurance.

------
dsfyu404ed
An aircraft carrier can't turn on a dime but when it eventually does turn
around you've got a fuckin' aircraft carrier!

Tesla quietly crept around and made electric cars cool and economically viable
while the industry had it's backs turned. They've certainly succeeded in
becoming a reputable brand, everyone's at least heard of them. It remains to
be seen whether they'll continue to be viable once the incumbents bring into
play their ability to write fat checks and spin up production facilities
without teething issues at every turn. The big players in the car industry
aren't ignoring EVs anymore.

Personally, my money is on GM dominating the market. Maybe there's a place for
Tesla and some of the later players in the high end.

~~~
oblio
The funny thing is, had Tesla just said: we don't need to innovate upon lean
manufacturing at the same time as we're innovating on electric cars, they'd be
super safe now. Instead they had to automate everything, then rollback, and
now are limping towards 10k cars per week.

~~~
0xCMP
I think this hubris is what is going to kill them (unless they , hopefully,
wake-up). They couldn't admit that maybe other people made cars pretty well
already and that they'd make that process even better over time.

I think they imagined themselves too much like Apple and it's attempts at
automating it's production of the Mac. However, they forgot that by this point
Apple/SJ had already figured out a lot of how to do assembly of computers
quickly and automating a good process is much easier than figuring out a
process that'll be automated.

Prior to this automation everything was done semi-manually for Model S and
Model X, with huge delays, so automating whatever they had was not the next
logical step. It was short sighted of them to go to automation first and it's
frankly causing unneeded delays to delivering the Model 3s and volatility in
the market.

~~~
bduerst
The problem was they are trying to shift to large-scale car manufacturing, and
car manufacturing _is hard_.

They basically have a tent erected in the Nevada desert, next to their stalled
plant, where they are hand-assembling cars now, which is causing all kinds of
quality issues [1].

Honestly, the buyout from VW would have solved this issue because VW knows how
to build cars at scale [2]. The fact they shot this down is exactly that -
hubris - and now they're burning through the last of their cash reserves on
their way to bankruptcy.

[1] [https://jalopnik.com/bumper-falls-off-brand-new-tesla-
model-...](https://jalopnik.com/bumper-falls-off-brand-new-tesla-
model-3-after-30-minut-1828306917)

[2] [https://www.wsj.com/articles/public-bravado-private-
doubts-h...](https://www.wsj.com/articles/public-bravado-private-doubts-how-
elon-musks-tesla-plan-unraveled-1535326249)

~~~
nardi
The tent and plant are in Fremont, in the East Bay of the SF Bay Area. You’re
thinking of the Gigafactory plant, which is where they make the batteries.

------
krylon
As a German, where the car industry is really big, I have felt a little
embarrassed for a long time that the German car companies apparently were
unable to get off their asses and rethink the engine.

I remember 18-20 years ago, fuel cells got a lot of publicity, but nothing
ever came of it. In retrospect, I think it was just a decoy.

Now these companies, that have been around for over a century in some cases,
are facing competition from out of nowhere, and they behave like they were
paralyzed.

It has been clear now for a few decades that in the long term, internal
combustion engines need to be replaced. Car manufacturers appear to have been
asleep at the wheel, so to speak.

If the industry is finally beginning to wake up, that is a good thing, but I
am doubtful they will be able to turn around the ship in time. If they had
started seriously some twenty years ago, who knows?

But I think it is too late now. It will take quite a while for companies that
big to go belly up, but their fate is sealed.

~~~
sonnyblarney
Fuel cells were not a decoy, there was a really big push for them.

The 'problem' is that after a lot of investment ... they just never became
economical.

Most of the car companies have been doing stuff in this area for many years,
and it's not like electric cars are some kind of existential threat to them;
they'll be just as happy selling them as combustion engine cars.

Cars are not software. It takes time.

As for 'waking up' \- they've been doing stuff for quite a while now, and the
game has barely just begun. Electric car sales are a tiny fraction of sales
and that's not going to change overnight.

The big auto companies are in a very good position, the entity the most likely
to go belly up is Tesla, though I hope they don't.

~~~
krylon
Regarding fuel cells, I was never able to tell. I remember I was excited when
one laptop manufacturer announced a fuel cell-driven laptop, but the project
got delayed (which fits your statement), and by the time it got to market, the
laptop did not get any more lifetime out of the fuel cell than its battery
driven competitors, while being a lot more expensive. Now that you mention it,
there is a fuel cell-driven submarine, which of course caters to a market,
where money is not quite as much of an issue.

If the established car manufacturers were throw their weight (i.e. money)
behind electric cars in a big way, they may indeed make Tesla eat their dust.

But that is a big if. Large established companies tend to develop a kind of
inertia that is almost impossible to counteract, unless the company faces an
existential threat. I would be glad to be proven wrong, but I doubt the major
German car manufacturers are currently in a position to overcome this type of
inertia. Maybe, if the state enacted some laws/regulations to push the
manufacturers in the direction of electrical cars, but given the number of
jobs that depend on the car industry, again, I am doubtful.

------
fermigier
Renault has been doing electric cars for some time.

One of my friends drove me recently in his Renault Zoe
([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault_Zoe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault_Zoe)
) and I was favorably impressed.

A new, cheaper and with extended range, version should be available next year:
[http://www.auto-moto.com/nouveautes/scoop/renault-
zoe-2019-1...](http://www.auto-moto.com/nouveautes/scoop/renault-
zoe-2019-174346.html)

~~~
bufferoverflow
Renault Zoe has a small battery, only 210km, while Model 3 is 500km.

~~~
GW150914
Disclaimer. The following comment was re-written after Greg replied:

Responding to Greg’s points, if you buy out the battery lease on the long
range car, it’s $34,000 dollars. The Tesla Model 3 you can buy today starts at
$54,000 dollars. I didn’t know about NEDC vs EPA, so I was off about the
range. Looking here it seems like a rough average for the range is 284km.
[https://pushevs.com/2018/07/29/range-efficiency-test-
of-10-e...](https://pushevs.com/2018/07/29/range-efficiency-test-
of-10-electric-cars/)

Maybe it’s worth it for most people to pay $20,000 for ~200km more range, but
certainly not in Europe. I’m also consistently met with points that 99% of
trips are below 70mi. Plus as I said earlier, you get actual instruments and
not one massive touchscreen, and quality control from a company not struggling
to make cars at any cost. Then, if something breaks you don’t have to wait
months for the part, and if you order a car now, you get it, you don’t go on
an indeterminate wait list while they hold your money.

~~~
greglindahl
You're comparing NEDC range with EPA range, and the price to buy a Model 3
with the price to buy a Zoe with a leased battery.

------
faitswulff
I've been waiting for a big automaker to respond to Tesla in full. If they've
managed to ignite competition in electric vehicles, then we all win, even if
Tesla goes under.

~~~
neom
Not to be pedantic but... I thought Toyota got the ball rolling with the Prius
and Tesla stoked the fire? (never mind, you said ignite _competition_ ) Either
way, you're totally right, we all win. :)

~~~
rch
Introducing the Prius (or Leaf) on the economy side of the market didn't put
much pressure on anyone. I don't believe the incumbents started making serious
strategic adjustments until Tesla started taking sales on the high-margin
side. Maybe only the timeline shifted, but that's still substantive, IMO.

~~~
samfisher83
Toyota sold more priuses last than cars Tesla has made in its entire history.

~~~
rch
> With a fully charged battery, Prius Prime has an EPA-estimated 25 miles of
> EV

\-- [https://www.toyota.com/priusprime/](https://www.toyota.com/priusprime/)

That's not even in the same league, performance wise; the Model 3's range is
~300 miles.

------
gcheong
Even if Musk loses the profitability game he will have won in helping to push
ICE manufacturers to produce electric vehicles which really seemed to be his
ultimate goal considering he said he would open source Tesla technology.
[https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-
you](https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you)

~~~
vertexFarm
Exactly. It's the "match that ignites an industry" and increases competition
in order to create an economic imperative for the rest of the industry players
to make electric products.

Supposedly this has been goal number one the entire time, so Tesla ought to be
very proud to have played a role in finally breaking the electric car into the
mainstream--not as a single company which may persist or may fail, but as an
enduring concept adopted across the industry.

[https://medium.com/@cormiston/the-elon-musk-business-
model-c...](https://medium.com/@cormiston/the-elon-musk-business-model-
canvas-b0964e8c880f)

Musk has his flaws, but it's not a bad strategy.

------
api
This is really why I'm a little bearish on Tesla. It's not because of their
issues, which can be overcome, but because now that the EV market has been
validated other bigger, richer, and more experienced car companies are going
to come into the space and offer Tesla a whole lot of competition.

Unlike space flight (Elon's other big venture) cars are not an industry that
has been totally moribund since the 1980s. It's a lot harder to disrupt a
healthy industry than it is to disrupt the walking dead (ULA, Roscosmos,
etc.).

~~~
rcMgD2BwE72F
Have you seen the car on stage?
[https://www.pscp.tv/w/1kvKpaEpLekGE](https://www.pscp.tv/w/1kvKpaEpLekGE) at
17:00.

I would reserve that (it won't be available before 2020 and they have yet to
have the battery production ready to make the car in volume!). Tesla's Model Y
will be presented in a few months.

I seriously doubt that Mercedes will be able to make good EV in volume before
Tesla.

~~~
aphextron
>I would reserve that (it won't be available before 2020 and they have yet to
have the battery production ready to make the car in volume!). Tesla's Model Y
will be presented in a few months.

This. EV production comes down entirely to battery availability. It looks like
Mercedes is making the same mistake as Nissan initially did, and thinking they
can roll their own battery tech and production facilities. They would be far
better off striking deals with LG or Panasonic as the rest outside of Tesla
have done. The 64kWh 2019 Nissan leaf (only real competitor to Model 3) will
be using LG chem batteries, as does the Chevy Bolt/Volt.

There's absolutely no way Mercedes will make up for a 15 year head start on
battery tech that Tesla has. I'd expect to see them building EVs at $100k+
MSRP and quantities under 20k/year, and having serious battery degradation
issues along with other idiosyncrasies of LiPo chemistry that have taken
decades to work out in large scale manufacturing. They will be making small
batches of pricey luxury EVs while Tesla, Nissan, and GM are producing
millions of units for the masses in 5 years.

~~~
wilsonnb3
If I'm not mistaken, Tesla still uses battery cells from Panasonic in their
cars.

~~~
aphextron
They do, but they have their own cell chemistry and they're really the only
car manufacturer with their own production coming online soon at quantities
high enough for volume.

~~~
marvin
Plus they do the battery pack design, construction and software themselves.
That includes testing of what temperature, power draw and charging regimes
cause degradation, how to keep the cells within a good regime while
maintaining performance, when to cheat, how to prevent fires and so on. You
don’t just put 7000 cells in parallel and call it a day. (Well, some
manufacturers do, but the results vary).

------
cs702
_Tesla deserves kudos_ for getting companies like Mercedes, Audi, Porsche, and
Jaguar to invest gobs of money to launch electric cars.

Extrapolating from the size of Mercedes' investment ("over $12 billion,"
according to the article), I suspect the industry is spending north of $50
billion to launch a range of new electric vehicles over the coming years.

For comparison, Tesla's annual capital spending is between $2 and $3 billion.

------
pasbesoin
"attack"

Getting very tired of such headlines and such language in reporting.

How about "inevitable technological evolution" and a corresponding "business
plan".

Despite appearances, the world is not constantly on fire -- in every last
corner the news cycle touches.

I'm glad there is increasing competition in what seems to be the next step in
the automobile's evolution and that of personal transport. (Like it or hate
it. Just try prying individualized timing and control of travel, from the
hands of many in the U.S., for one thing.)

------
flexie
The article suggests Tesla will produce/sell 24,900 Model 3s in 2018. That's
roughly what they produced in Q1 and the production rate has increased since
to the point where Tesla will likely produce more than 150,000 Model 3s in
2018, maybe even close to 200,000. According to the graph in the article,
Tesla won't even reach that number in 2021.

~~~
ebikelaw
That graph does deserve some explanation, but perhaps it is sales by year
rather than production? Tesla is currently running off orders they booked
years ago, so production rate is running well ahead of sales rate.

~~~
rcMgD2BwE72F
>production rate is running well ahead of sales rate.

Source?

~~~
ebikelaw
Tesla's own SEC filings.

~~~
rcMgD2BwE72F
Quote?

I got different information

>Robin Ren - Tesla, Inc:

>Correct. Another thing I want to point out is that we are actually – since we
opened the configurator to the general public in early July, we are seeing an
increased demand coming from people who do not currently hold a reservation. I
think that's something that we found super exciting, because these are the
people who actually had no idea about Model 3 and they heard about Model 3 is
available to order, many of them requested test drives and since early July,
we have over 60,000 test drive requests in the U.S. alone and these people
come into our stores, do the test drive, and they become super excited and
they decide to order the car.

>So, we believe that the strong demand coming from especially the non-
reservation orders is going to dramatically increase as we increase our test
drive population. To give you an example, three weeks ago, we had only eight
stores having test drive cars to Elon's point earlier. Now we have over 90
stores having test drive cars.

[https://seekingalpha.com/article/4193497-tesla-
tsla-q2-2018-...](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4193497-tesla-
tsla-q2-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single)

------
nimbius
Im a professional engine mechanic for a small chain of service centers, and
this reminds me of the hybrid race and the car manufacturers that had to
scramble to make up for lost time. The only difference being it wasnt Mercedes
and luxury makers, it was consumer giants like Ford.

Chevy and Dodge bet boatloads on the american consumers lust for the SUV even
if gas hit $5 a gallon, only to find out just how wrong they were in 2008. Few
people know this but Hybrid Synergy Drive from Toyota became the de-facto
standard in US hybrid systems. every Ford hybrid licenses it, and many Nissan
hybrids do as well. Honda developed their own hybrid system but as far as I
know it was never licensed.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_Synergy_Drive#Patent_is...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_Synergy_Drive#Patent_issues)

Now you have the Chevy Volt, which was half of Chevrolet pleading with
shareholders and management to embrace electric, and the other half puffing on
their cigars and chortling over "battery powered" cars. The result? some kind
of design-by-committee plug in hybrid electric with a motor thats a generator?
Needless to say the Prius casually crushed it.

Finally theres BMW with their i3, but who cares? A p75 will dominate it in
terms of both power and range. Many mechanics I know attest that BMW could
only bring this to market by building most of the car out of carbon fiber.

The glaring fact remains that everyone in the industry is back to 2005 all
over again. pulling up their pants and sprinting to keep up all over again
with something they all insisted wasnt going anywhere. My apprentice tells me
Porsche's Taycan electric will do 0-60 in 3.5 seconds, but again, who cares. a
P100 will absolutely embarrass any porsche model gas, or electric, in a sub
two second quarter mile with ludicrous speed and still have enough charge to
get something at the mcdonalds drivethrough on the way home.

~~~
throwaway5752
I hope you see this reply, because I'm very curious about your opinion on this
I have watched from afar as Tesla (wisely, to me) approached the market top
down with the S and Roadster. But I'm definitely the type that is very
practical as far as vehicles go: get me from point A to point B, do it
reliably for a long time (10-15 years with regular maintenance), and hopefully
do so for around $25k base.

Where do you see the Model 3 vs the Prius (or Bolt? I think I can pick up on
your feelings on the Volt) currently, in those terms? My mind is literally
blown by some of the 0-60 and quarter mile numbers, but those end up as very
low priorities for me when I'm thinking about getting a new vehicle.

edit: the technologist in me loves the Tesla platform, but the car buyer in me
loves being 4-5 generations into a platform, at least.

edit 2: ... so, I have no idea why people are downvoting me. If you did, I'd
appreciate some feedback so I can avoid it in the future, but I asked a car
question on a car submission in response to a car comment.

~~~
codeulike
Good question. Consider the short range Model 3 vs the longer range Nissan
Leaf thats supposed to be coming next year. They will both have similar prices
and ranges. Then its the choice between the cool looking, more futuristic car
which might have issues vs the more regular, likely more dependable one. I
think Tesla are counting on autopilot to differentiate them, but that wont be
compelling to everyone.

~~~
throwaway5752
I can't see how anyone that's spent a minute in an infosec related position
could desire autopilot. I am trying closer to the "trying hard to tolerate
that it's present" stage.

------
xae342
Tesla was founded in 2003, that’s a long time for all these companies to have
been sitting on the side line. Subaru is still in no rush.

------
newnewpdro
After hearing Musk describe in more detail how the future Roadster has
achieved its massive range and current capacity (two 100Kwh Model S batteries
stacked), I've become a lot less confident in Tesla's technology advantage.

If it were mostly due to battery tech breakthroughs, the situation would be
much different. But no, it's just a heavier, bigger pile of existing
batteries.

The established manufacturers just need to decide to commit to competing with
Tesla. They already have mass production solved, and there doesn't seem to be
any major technological breakthrough Tesla owns preventing them from competing
on performance.

------
pasta
The Jaguar I-pace already is a good Tesla rival. And now Mercedes will follow.

I think Tesla won't go away but I think in a few years they will be just an
other electric car brand.

~~~
Shebanator
The i-pace is a very nice car, but their sales challenges make it unlikely to
be a serious competitor. I thought about buying one myself, but Jag's
reputation scared me off.

[https://autoweek.com/article/luxury/jaguar-i-pace-ready-
poun...](https://autoweek.com/article/luxury/jaguar-i-pace-ready-pounce-ev-
market)

The sold 250 cars in europe in its first full quarter of availability,
compared to 7K Tesla models sold:

[http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-
data/jaguar/jagua...](http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-
data/jaguar/jaguar-i-pace/)

[http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-
data/tesla/](http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/tesla/)

------
bryanlarsen
The real news is from Audi; they've already started mass production of the
e-tron. [https://techcrunch.com/2018/09/03/audi-starts-mass-
productio...](https://techcrunch.com/2018/09/03/audi-starts-mass-production-
of-its-first-all-electric-suv/)

Mercedes isn't starting production until 2H19.

~~~
rcMgD2BwE72F
Mass production? What are the number?

I'd have said just "production". How much can they even build with their
current battery procurement contracts? As far as I know, Audi doesn't make
batteries and their Chinese suppliers still prefer to keep their battery for
the domestic market (or will only export them at high margin).

------
akmiller
Every one of these reads like all those old 'next iPhone killer' headlines.

Elon's publicly stated goal was driving more EV adoption whether it is Tesla
or others and he's most definitely succeeded at that.

That being said, there is far more to Tesla's than just being an EV at this
point and that won't be killed anytime soon!

------
jasonvorhe
I'm always amused by the constant hating on Tesla while they at least manage
to ship and have products that aren't just announcements and just have issues
with scaling up and some parts of the hull not being perfectly aligned while
everyone else is just showing off prototype after prototype, luxury cars or
overpriced entry level cars that don't even come close to Tesla's mileage.

Faraday Future and Lucid also don't seem to be able to get their act together.

This leaves just Tesla, Chevy with Bolt and VW with the E Golf.

I'd also be surprised if Tesla wasn't going to end up being the quasi monopoly
battery manufacturer in the long run.

------
goshx
I measure Tesla's success by how many major auto makers they force to adopt
electric vehicles. Even if Tesla is not the leader in the segment in a couple
decades, if the majority of cars on the road are electric, this is a big win
for everyone.

------
CodeSheikh
Now would be a good time to re-visit "Who Killed the Electric Car?"
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0489037/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0489037/)

------
icc97
Perhaps as Musk gets further down the road of actually being a car
manufacturer his thoughts will change, but he should welcome this. He gave out
the patents freely so that more competition would come, he wants the electric
car market as a whole to improve.

That said I can't say I'm overwhelmed by this. I think both Tesla and to a
lesser extent the Nissan leaf have better concepts. The I-pace, EQC, e-tron
all still sound like geek gimmicks. Tesla and Nissan have built great cars
that happen to be electric.

------
snarfybarfy
We could have had nice electric cars like 10 or even 20 years earlier if
legislation had limited normal cars to something reasonable like 40 horsepower
/ 30 kW. (yeah go on and tell me about your family of 9 that needs to go up a
20% incline in strong headwinds;-)

But no, it ended up being an arms race to have the biggest vehicle on the
road.

And ironically most people in those huge contraptions cry about there not
being enough parking spaces.

------
HaloZero
The big thing about Tesla is they have their supercharger network, are these
other brands expected to run their own versions or just use Tesla's stations?

~~~
dabeeeenster
They can't use Telsa's network. If that's what you meant?

I took delivery of a 2018 Nissan Leaf 4 months ago in the UK. The car is
amazing - the charging network is a sad joke. Luckily I have a drive so
largely negated, but the problem for Tesla competitors is, the larger the
battery the slower the charging infrastructure feels. If you need to recharge
70kwh on a 48kwh charging port, its not great waiting 1.5 hours at a motorway
services.

None of the competition are aiming at the model 3 or Leaf either, which is
where the real market is. Nissan have announced a ~60kwh Leaf for 2019. They
seem to be the only ones who are really close behind tesla.

~~~
DamnInteresting
> None of the competition are aiming at the model 3 or Leaf either, which is
> where the real market is. Nissan have announced a ~60kwh Leaf for 2019. They
> seem to be the only ones who are really close behind tesla.

The Chevy Bolt EV is an excellent offering in this space, I have a 2017 model.
~230 mile range, ~$37k price tag before tax rebate.

~~~
codeulike
I'd love to have a Bolt if Chevvy could be bothered to sell it in my country
(UK). They dont seem to have any interest in selling it.

~~~
DamnInteresting
Evidently GM is shipping a lot of Bolt EVs to South Korea, contributing to low
inventories elsewhere (including here in the colonies). It took almost a year
for me to get my Bolt after registering my interest with local Chevy dealers.

GM claims that they'll increase production for the 2019 model year, but time
will tell.

[https://insideevs.com/south-korean-chevy-bolt-ev-sales-
crush...](https://insideevs.com/south-korean-chevy-bolt-ev-sales-crush-u-s-
for-june/)

~~~
codeulike
_Chevrolet Bolt electric vehicle won 't be sold in the UK_

[https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-detroit-
motor...](https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-detroit-motor-
show/chevrolet-bolt-electric-vehicle-wont-be-sold-uk)

------
deltron3030
The interior design looks very cybertrashy and pseudofuturistic. Why is the
automotive industry so diconnected from general design trends and minimalism?

------
mtgx
These attacks should be taken seriously only when the carmakers actually start
promoting them:

[https://electrek.co/2018/09/03/automakers-not-advertising-
el...](https://electrek.co/2018/09/03/automakers-not-advertising-electric-
vehicles-study/)

~~~
rcMgD2BwE72F
And only when they secure some battery production capacity to make these cars
in volume. That's an even better indicator.

Mercedes et al. always had big plans to produce batteries. But the plans
remains plans. Every year.

Tesla, on the contrary, keeps growing its lead over the legacy automakers.
They are still have 5 to 10 years ahead on this front and their competitors
are still writing press releases...

------
eumenides1
People are talking about the big manufacturers making competitors to the Model
S/X/3, but who is a making the core component (i.e the battery)?

Tesla is the only one doing both ATM. Tesla will happily make batteries for
other big manufacturers and will succeed as long a electric car uptake is
standardized.

~~~
empath75
Do you mean panasonic

~~~
rcMgD2BwE72F
Panasonic makes cells (on Tesla's specs) not batteries.

------
jedberg
I'm just waiting for my fully electric minivan. Ideally it would be identical
to my current Honda Odyssey, just electric. I tried the model X, and while the
driving experience was amazing, the inside felt like a Corolla. I saved
$100,000 and got the Honda instead.

------
King-Aaron
I just want a company to release a two-mount/north-south or three-mount/east-
west electric drivetrain kit, that I can adapt OE mounts to and fit to most
consumer vehicles.

If Chevrolet etc can sell crate engines, I want to see Tesla (etc) sell crate
drivelines.

------
izzydata
I'm rather unfamiliar with electric vehicles, but I was curious if all of
these future EVs will have a standardized charging port. I get the feeling in
order for there to be electric "gas stations" they will all need to have the
same plug.

------
mmanfrin
I wish car companies would stop trying to make EVs so goddamn garish looking.
This car is so abysmally covered in blue LEDs that is just fucking SCREAMS
"I'M AN EV" in the least subtle way possible.

------
EamonnMR
A rugged, fun electric that can be repaired by mortals would be the real sell.
An all-electric should be simpler than an IC, not more complicated.

------
opsroller
When your approach to marketing is “My product will kill this other product”,
you most likely are approaching it wrong.

------
codeulike
"Pricing has not been announced"

------
outericky
Why do we need to target Tesla? Why not broaden the EV market and target ICE
vehicles?

------
btashton
I really wish companies were more careful with the colors used in graphs. The
colors used for Model 3, e-mini, and BMW iX3 are nearly indistinguishable for
some forms of color blindness. There are good palettes out there already,
please us them!

------
onemoresoop
Tesla could sell their great battery technology to other manufacturers and
they're in the battery business. Tesla ~ Electricity, right?

------
polskibus
Why electric and not hydrogen?

~~~
rcMgD2BwE72F
Because efficiency: [https://insideevs.com/efficiency-compared-battery-
electric-7...](https://insideevs.com/efficiency-compared-battery-
electric-73-hydrogen-22-ice-13/)

~~~
polskibus
Thanks, that was informative

------
madengr
I assume the range of the discussed cars is at least on par with the Tesla; >
250 miles?

------
kerrybright3000
Dang, this car looks really cool. Like TESLA cool
[https://www.wired.com/story/mercedes-benz-eqc-electric-
suv/](https://www.wired.com/story/mercedes-benz-eqc-electric-suv/)

