
Epidemiologist: Social Distancing Guarantees Second Wave of Covid-19 - giardini
Dr. Knut Wittkowski: &quot;at the Rockefeller University for 20 years, Head of the Department of Biostatistics Epidemiology and Research Design, and before that, I worked for 15 years with Klaus Dietz, one of the leading epidemiologists in the world in the German town of Tubingen in the Eberhard Karls University.&quot;<p>Complete interview at:<p>https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ratical.org&#x2F;PerspectivesOnPandemic-II.html<p>Selections from the Interview of Dr. Wittknowski at:<p>https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.thecollegefix.com&#x2F;epidemiologist-coronavirus-could-be-exterminated-if-lockdowns-were-lifted&#x2F;<p>Some quotes:<p><i>&gt;WITTKOWSKI:&quot;However, if we are preventing herd immunity from developing, it is almost guaranteed that we have a second wave as soon as either we stop the social distancing or the climate changes with winter coming or something like that.&lt;&quot;</i><p>[30:10.16] JOHN: I see. And so, to summarize, you are saying that’s going to flatten and extend the epidemic and create the second wave that we are being told to fear?<p>[30:21.00]  WITTKOWSKI: Yes. The second wave is a direct consequence of social distancing.
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mullingitover
Oh, it'll be more than two waves if we're lucky. See figure 4 from the the
Imperial College paper[1].

Note that that paper assumes R0 of 2.2. A paper in CDC's Emerging Infectious
Diseases written by researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratory shows
evidence that the real R0 could be as high as 5.7[2].

This guy's argument is wildly reckless, he's basically advocating for the
rejected "herd immunity by infecting everyone at once" strategy that would've
killed millions. He gives absolutely zero thought to the health care workers
who are already dying en masse even with a quarantine strategy.

[1] [https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-
college/medicine/s...](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-
college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-
modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)

[2]
[https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article?deliv...](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article?deliveryName=USCDC_333-DM25287)

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giardini
mullingitover says _> " he's basically advocating for the rejected "herd
immunity by infecting everyone at once" [a] strategy that would've killed
_millions_."<_

"Herd immunity" is not "rejected". For example, the Dutch and the Swedes have
chosen to use it against Covid-19..

Furthermore, the total number of Covid-19 __cases__ in the USA is less than a
million! to claim that the herd immunity strategy would have "killed millions"
is nonsense. Deaths in USA due to Covid-19 are < 17,000 as of today, April 9,
2020.

~~~
himlion
Not true, the Dutch have been on quasi lockdown for the last 4 weeks.

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giardini
Well, it _is_ true, they did and it was official:

 _" Dutch embrace 'herd immunity' as dire death warning prompts UK to change
course"_

[https://pjmedia.com/trending/dutch-pm-announces-he-opts-
for-...](https://pjmedia.com/trending/dutch-pm-announces-he-opts-for-
extremely-risky-herd-immunity-in-battle-against-covid-19/)

~~~
himlion
It was a gaffe from the PM and quickly retracted, see for example:
[https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/mps-back-ministers-
on-...](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/mps-back-ministers-on-
coronavirus-herd-immunity-is-not-the-aim-says-rutte/)

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himlion
Well, I think two waves that stay manageable for the healthcare system is
preferable to one wave with people dying without treatment in overcrowded
hospitals.

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rdtwo
If we can build enough masks and enough hyperbolic chambers for wave 2 sure
but there isn’t much effort. Vents are mostly useless and most people on vents
either die immediately or have poor long term outcomes.

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computerphysics
Social distancing just flattens the curve. Lockdown lifting necessarily
implies a second wave unless Suppression is applied.

[https://miro.medium.com/max/1344/1*Xey24l-zNkU8pScTu7st5A.pn...](https://miro.medium.com/max/1344/1*Xey24l-zNkU8pScTu7st5A.png)

[https://medium.com/@juan_marketpayio/please-america-do-
not-f...](https://medium.com/@juan_marketpayio/please-america-do-not-follow-
us-991939b9a5e1)

