
Emptier US roads more lethal in coronavirus pandemic, report says - thisistheend123
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52753925
======
sivex
Roadway deaths fall 8%, number of miles driven falls 18%, fatalities per mile
increases 14%... What is noteworthy about this? Do most accidents occur near
intersections or in urban areas rather than on highways? Where is the data on
where these accidents happen? There are a lot less people commuting far
distances due to the increase in remote work - and now these statistics are
based on fewer people taking lower mileage trips. To go to the grocery store,
I need to drive 3 miles and I go through 18 intersections. To go to work I'm
driving 50 miles and going through 12 intersections. Intersections create
scenarios where some vehicles are going 50mph faster than those stopped or
turning. With some location data added, would this show that fatalities are
higher in areas where there are larger concentrations of vehicles going
drastically different speeds? Fender benders on the highway aren't going to
cause deaths. Being T-Boned or being hit by someone running a red light....

~~~
throwaway0a5e
I think you're right that it's the intersections/interactions. I commute ~50mi
day across varied roads. The intersections on the "not a totally limited
access highway but pretty close" seem to be where most of the stupid stuff
happens. It's not any different than the normal stuff but now the speed
differentials are higher so stupid has the potential to hurt more.

Most people drive around what's reasonable for the road. Some people drive
insanely fast and some people drive whatever the speed limit is,
reasonableness be damned. With normal traffic the latter group combined with
the sheer volume of cars limit the ability of the two former groups to have
large speed differentials with any of the other two groups.

Now with 'rona traffic volumes you've got the people that want to drive 100,
weaving around the people who want to do 70-85 while the idiots who think it's
acceptable to merge at 30mph less than traffic speed do just that. The net
situation is just one unsignaled lane change away from a crash.

That said, I've seen a lot less aggressive passing because the roads are so
empty that you get lots of chance to pass people so you don't need to take a
crappy one.

------
blakesterz
Interesting: "Anecdotal reports indicate speeding, for example, has increased
significantly since traffic diminished. Some states are also moving forward
with ill-advised roadway tactics intended to address the COVID-19 pandemic but
that could have far-reaching consequences. Among them are repealing
requirements for teen drivers to pass road tests before acquiring licenses and
relaxing hours of service rules for commercial vehicle drivers."

Summary of the report is here:

[https://www.nsc.org/in-the-newsroom/motor-vehicle-
fatality-r...](https://www.nsc.org/in-the-newsroom/motor-vehicle-fatality-
rates-jump-14-in-march-despite-quarantines)

And the details are here:

[https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-
vehicle/overview/prelimina...](https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-
vehicle/overview/preliminary-monthly-estimates/)

------
JoeAltmaier
I've witnessed this - folks driving like its a post-apocalyptical world,
running lights and stop signs, speeding through empty neighborhoods at double
the limit, parking randomly. Aggressive drivers are matched up against
distracted drivers - on one trip, two times the light changed and the first
car in line sat there for 5 or 10 seconds.

~~~
meroes
My personal observation over the years is congestion is the only thing forcing
many people to obey traffic laws. Weekend drivers aren't worse per se, just
untethered.

------
paultopia
I bet part of this is a selection effect. The most prudent people are staying
home as much as possible, so a higher proportion of the miles driven are by
people with a predisposition to be reckless.

~~~
vannevar
Yes, I would bet this accounts for the vast majority of the effect. Hard to
test the theory, though. Maybe look at the driving records of the deceased,
see whether the average number of past offenses was also higher.

------
remote_phone
This is exactly my experience. The roads are less populated but I find the
percentage of aggressive drivers has sky rocketed. People are weaving in and
out, speeding at excessive speeds (100 mph+) and generally being assholes. I
don’t know why the police aren’t patrolling the highways more, because it
would be very easy to hand out tickets these days.

~~~
somerandomqaguy
They are.

"CHP issued 2,493 citations statewide for speeding more than 100 mph, compared
to 1,335 last year."

-[https://abc7news.com/chp-coronavirus-stay-home-orders-speedi...](https://abc7news.com/chp-coronavirus-stay-home-orders-speeding-tickets/6124578/)

~~~
throwaway0a5e
People are now more free to drive whatever speed they find reasonable rather
than the speed of other traffic. The long tails of the curve are coming out.
There's probably just as many people taking advantage of the ability to
comfortably drive below the mean traffic speed we just don't know about them
because we don't ticket them so they don't generate data.

~~~
standardUser
"...we just don't know about them..."

We also don't care about them nearly as much because it's driving fast that
leads to greater injury and death, not driving more slowly.

~~~
AnimalMuppet
The delta matters, not just the absolute velocity. If people are driving 100,
someone driving 50 is a bigger hazard than someone driving 80.

------
Trasmatta
This is another example of how often intuitions can be dramatically incorrect.
I think most people assumed that roads would be much safer during lockdowns.
But there's almost always some extra factor you're not aware of that that
changes things.

I try to be skeptical of any of those "obvious" conclusions that come to mind.
It helps a lot with programming, where the obvious solution to a problem is
often fundamentally wrong. (I'm not always successful at doing that, though.)

------
lunias
Personally, when I hopped back in the car after not driving for a month; it
felt weird. I think that people are just de-conditioned and less cars on the
road gives people false confidence in their atrophied skills.

~~~
deeblering4
Came here to say this. I’ve gone from driving multiple times per day to ~3x
per month.

I can feel my skills have diminished and it feels like I’m sharing the road
with a bunch of aggressive learners permit drivers

------
distant_hat
Anecdotally, in India, driving has become more deadlier than usual even if
total number of deaths are lower. People are speeding more, since traffic
police presence is lower, people are jumping red lights and driving on the
wrong sides of the road a lot more. You have to be hyper alert.

------
extra88
In Massachusetts, "there were 28 deaths on the state's roadways in April —
compared to 27 at the same time last year" despite traffic being 50% lower.
The article says 1/3 of the deaths were on interstate highways but doesn't say
if the proportion of deaths on highways vs. local roads was abnormal or not.

[https://www.wbur.org/bostonomix/2020/05/04/massachusetts-
roa...](https://www.wbur.org/bostonomix/2020/05/04/massachusetts-roadway-
deaths-coronavirus)

------
anewdirection
The roads have been extra fun for those of us who enjoy them responsibly. I
have seen only a few cases of unusual/dangerous things. I feel like only those
with extreme experinces are reporting because of the interest effect. While
cities are less busy, many rural areas seem as busy as ever, partly due to
increased traffic from people looking to 'get out', is my only interesting
observation..

~~~
deeblering4
> The roads have been extra fun for those of us who enjoy them responsibly.

Hmm, sounds like a paradox

------
vilhelm_s
On the plus side, we got a new Cannonball Run record: 26 hours across the
continent, which works out to an average of 107 mph including stops...

[https://www.whichcar.com.au/news/the-cannonball-run-
record-h...](https://www.whichcar.com.au/news/the-cannonball-run-record-has-
been-obliterated)

------
u801e
A lot of these reports make assumptions that the problem is due to speeding,
but they don't contain any data about actual traffic speeds. I would like to
see some evidence that the median and 85th percentile speed of traffic has
gone up significantly before giving credence to claims that speeding has
increased.

~~~
leetcrew
or some crash analysis. contrary to popular belief, speeding is not actually
the leading cause of accidents.

------
vondur
Here is Southern California, I’ve seen a lot more crazy driving on the
freeways. Since there are far less cars, I’ve seen a lot of people driving 90+
mph during the work week. It’s nuts. However the last two weeks here has seen
an uptick in traffic, meaning more crowded roads and less of the speeding.

------
qbaqbaqba
Can confirm. After a month of a total lockdown (Poland) some people got more
aggressive. After some restrictions got lifted, like entering forests, cycling
or jogging, situation is getting more or less normal.

------
ctack
I've noticed that people are driving a lot faster on the emptier roads.

------
s09dfhks
Theres a post on the front page that says otherwise?

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23258858](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23258858)

which is it

~~~
okreallywtf
The explanation is in the first sentence: "Early data indicate a year-on-year
14% jump in fatality rates per distance driven in March, the document by the
National Safety Council (NSC) says."

The number of deaths is down, but the deaths per mile are up.

------
mleonhard
Jaywalking has increased in SF and probably other cities. This contributes to
the per-mile death rate.

------
ikeyany
Are empty roads causing people to drive recklessly? Or are the isolation and
disruption to people's lifestyles causing it?

~~~
creaghpatr
People are driving like maniacs on what were previously clogged up city
streets from what I've seen. Hopefully a novelty that wears off.

And of course there's this: [https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/dekalb-
county/90s-film-tv-a...](https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/dekalb-
county/90s-film-tv-actress-among-dozens-arrested-street-racing-
stunts/H35HJAXD4BBEZGXZJHN7EPWEDQ/)

And this: [https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/atlanta-police-arrest-
dozen...](https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/atlanta-police-arrest-dozens-in-
street-racing-crackdown)

~~~
beerandt
Atlanta's always had a problem with street "racing." Not finish line racing,
but fast joy-riding in big groups, especially street bikes.

It's not a novelty.

~~~
creaghpatr
True, but safe to say the frequency is way up as a result of emptier streets.

~~~
beerandt
I'd say as a result of boredom.

------
whateveracct
Sunday drivers 24/7

------
standardUser
The dimmest among us think it's fun to drive extra fast because there are less
cars on the road. States should jack up fines exponentially to try and deter
these sociopaths.

~~~
Shivetya
Atlanta recently worked with multiple jurisdiction to put a stop to street
racing which saw a major uptick during the stay at home order.

Georgia along with other states have super speeder laws [1] which throw
additional penalties upon the infraction. You can already get charged with
reckless driving at high speeds so it all tends to pile on.

Sadly Georgia did [2] online only driver license testing during the initial
lock downs but it appears they are going back to actual testing but I don't
think it will be as good as before when those being tested would have someone
in the car with them

Far too many drivers think they are better than they are but I believe that
distracted driving is far worse; Georgia's hands free law resulted in people
using window mounts to place phones in their line of sight which is a horrid
outcome

auto start video warning
[0][https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/44-arrests-29-cars-
impounde...](https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/44-arrests-29-cars-impounded-
atlanta-street-racing-bust/V5Q7PN66KBHTHO7RTNUGOMZCVI/?_website=cmg-tv-10010)

[1] [https://dds.georgia.gov/reinstatement-faqs-super-
speeder](https://dds.georgia.gov/reinstatement-faqs-super-speeder)

auto start video warning [2][https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/driving-road-
tests-start-ba...](https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/driving-road-tests-start-
back-up-georgia-with-social-distance-changes/FXLPZVHDPJBG5IDBYL672L6H7A/)

~~~
mumblemumble
My suspicion is that it could be curtailed much more effectively by placing
(and enforcing) bans on two other habits that make the roads less safe:
Passing people on the right, and just hanging out in the left lane.

That said, yeah, screens while driving is a menace. Not just when you have a
phone mount. Texting while driving is built into CarPlay as an in-dash
infotainment feature that drivers are actively encouraged to use.

~~~
clairity
> "...bans on two other habits..."

we already have a rule to deal with that: move to the right if you're not
passing, meaning if you're not going faster than the nearest cars immediately
to your right (forward and rearward) or if there are no such cars, then move
right one lane. but it's not enforced at all.

drag racing on city roads is clearly reckless and dangerous and should be
appropriately penalized (but forgivable with contrition). however, a lot of
aggressive driving is frustration at other drivers' lack of consideration (to
the rule above, for instance). distracted driving is the biggest (but not
only) component of lack of consideration.

active driving simultaneously solves for aggression, inconsideration, and
distraction.

------
brenden2
I'm way more scared of cars than the virus. There's no cure for automobiles,
but at least there's hope of a vaccine at some point in the future.

~~~
maxsilver
> I'm way more scared of cars than the virus.

I'm not sure why. The Virus is currently 50x more deadly than cars (in
Michigan, for example, about ~100 people die from car accidents each year, but
_5,000+ people_ have died from COVID-19 across just half of 2020.)

~~~
justtopostthis3
Got me curious. Looks more like ~1,000/yr from car accidents:
[https://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/DecadeGlanceFatals_38...](https://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/DecadeGlanceFatals_382744_7.pdf)
(Still less than I would have guessed.)

Also interesting:
[https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/michigan/michigan....](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/michigan/michigan.htm)

Curious to see how all-cause numbers will be affected.

(data still supports your point - thanks for perspective.)

------
Niccizero
The other day I went to the office to pick up something and I was finally able
to experience the nice banked turn in my commute at full speed. 160kmh with
tires at the limit of grip, when most of the days I can barely get 60kmh
there. What a pleasure.

~~~
Johnjonjoan
How considerate of tired emergency workers who would have had to peel you off
various surfaces if you exceeded the limit of grip. Go to a track if you want
to behave like a child.

~~~
Niccizero
Can't they just power wash me away?

~~~
Johnjonjoan
Or just act one on here.. Car accidents happen all the time and rarely does
the person who caused it think they were going to cause it. If you had lost
people to an idiotic driver in your life maybe you'd see things my way.

