
What we didn't get: Science fiction and science history - jseliger
http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/what-we-didnt-get.html
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eesmith
Seems to hype 1990s SF while dissing 1950s SF more than I think is
appropriate.

"Artificial intelligences trade stocks"

That use in SF dates from at least Cordwainer Smith's "Norstrilia" (1975), and
likely "The Planet Buyer" (1964). In Norstrilia, the AI in a war computer -
economics is a part of warfare - makes the main character the richest person
in history. Overnight. By leveraging the futures market.

"A meme virus almost as crazy as the one in Snow Crash swept an insane man to
the presidency of the United State"

How about this earlier meme virus: Heinlein's "If This Goes On—" (1940)
concerns a televangelist named Nehemiah Scudder who rides a populist, racist
wave of support to the Presidency in 2012, then becomes dictator.

(I'm pretty certain the idea comes from Sinclair Lewis' "It Can't Happen
Here", which Wikipedia summarizes as "Berzelius "Buzz" Windrip, a politician
who defeats Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) and is elected President of the
United States, after fomenting fear and promising drastic economic and social
reforms while promoting a return to patriotism and "traditional" values. After
his election, Windrip takes complete control of the government and imposes a
plutocratic/totalitarian rule ..")

"artificial pop stars"

Like the Monkees?

"The early industrial age saw sci-fi writers predict many inventions that
would eventually become reality from air and space travel to submarines,
tanks, television, helicopters, videoconferencing, X-rays, radar, robots, and
even the atom bomb"

Okay, that's overly generous. A submarine was used in the US war for
independence, and the word "helicopter" was coined in 1861, while the first
working steam-powered helicopter was in 1878. What, by the way, is a robot?
Are clock tower automatons "robots"?

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_videotelephony](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_videotelephony)
says "The concept of videotelephony was first popularized in the late 1870s in
both the United States and Europe."

"And their social predictions were pretty accurate, too"

Oh? To really judge this I'll need to know what counts as early industrial age
SF. Verne didn't really make predictions.

"they anticipated consumer societies and high-tech large-scale warfare."

What is the prediction? They lived in a consumer society with high-tech large-
scale warfare. Look at the US Civil War for an example. Overnight wooden
warships became worthless.

"Most famously, the mid-20th century was full of visions of starships,
interplanetary exploration and colonization, android servitors and flying
cars, planet-busting laser cannons, energy too cheap to meter."

Yes, they were. So was the pre-war SF. Starships and interplanetary
exploration? "The Skylark of Space" (1928). Also in the same publication of
Amazing Stories? Armageddon 2419 A.D., with the character who became Buck
Rogers.

Interplanetary colonization? "Last and First Men" (1930) The Fifth Men
colonize Venus and the Eighth Men Neptune. And the android in Metropolis
(1927).

"Why didn't we get the Star Trek future, or the Jetsons future, or the Asimov
future?"

Or the Buck Rogers future? Or the Flash Gordon future?

I'm hard pressed to think of a pre-pulp author who really set stories in a
near-term future.

"uranium is a horrible deadly poison"

Umm, not true. Quoting
[http://web.ead.anl.gov/uranium/guide/ucompound/health/index....](http://web.ead.anl.gov/uranium/guide/ucompound/health/index.cfm)
: "Once in the bloodstream, the uranium compounds are filtered by the kidneys,
where they can cause damage to the kidney cells. Very high uranium intakes
(ranging from about 50 to 150 mg depending on the individual) can cause acute
kidney failure and death. At lower intake levels (around 25 to 40 mg), damage
can be detected by the presence of protein and dead cells in the urine, but
there are no other symptoms. Also, at lower intake levels, the kidney repairs
itself over a period of several weeks after the uranium exposure has stopped.
"

"pocket laser cannon"

Buck Rogers called it a raygun, back in the 1930s.

"Starting in the mid to late 1990s, until maybe around 2010, sci-fi once again
embraced some very far-out future stuff ..."

I think there's a bias error. The far-out future stuff of the 1970s, like "The
Shockwave Rider", no longer seems that far-out. ("The hero is a survivor in a
hypothetical world of quickly changing identities, fashions and lifestyles,
where individuals are still controlled and oppressed by a powerful and
secretive state apparatus. His highly developed computer skills enable him to
use any public telephone to punch in a new identity, thus reinventing himself,
within hours.")

As for pre-cyberpunk examples of "Strong (self-improving) AI, artificial
general intelligence" \- Heinlein's "The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress" (1966) and
D. F. Jones' "Colossus" (1966).

I think the argument is reasonable. We no longer have amazing stories about
exploring the jungles of Venus because we know what Venus is like. But I
really don't like the examples.

