
U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years - hhs
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-jobs/u-s-job-openings-post-biggest-drop-in-more-than-four-years-idUSKBN1ZG1V0
======
aazaa
Unemployment drops during an expansion, then rises heading into a recession.
It turns out you can quantify this relationship as a recession predictor:

> According to LaVorgna, since 1948, the economy has always entered or been in
> a recession when the unemployment rate increases 50 basis points (or 0.50
> percentage point) from its trailing cyclical low.

[https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/20/a-recession-indicator-
with-a...](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/20/a-recession-indicator-with-a-
perfect-track-record-over-70-years-is-close-to-being-triggered.html)

Taken with the yield curve inversion in 2019, and other leading indicators, it
appears the US economy is headed for the first recession in over 10 years. If
previous trends hold, it's within 12-18 months away.

Oddly enough, the stock market typically rallies from the yield curve
inversion right into the next recession. So there's money to be made, but it's
kind of like trying to gather nickels on the tracks as the locomotive
barreling down on you blows its whistle.

However, policymakers will continue to tout the relatively low unemployment
rate and booming stock market right into the recession (which can only be
declared months after its start).

~~~
snarf21
Add in the bad monetary policy that has Fortune 500 companies borrowing money
at 0% to buyback stocks. Then the Democrats are going to want to rollback the
Trump tax cuts and that will be the beginning. However, I think we need a bad
recession or pop to bring things back to normal instead of just easing the
pressure slightly. Otherwise the real crash will be even bigger.

~~~
ianai
I hope it’s a pop and soon or the eventual fall will be closer to a depression
in the old school sense.

~~~
Nerdfest
Why? That seems like it would cause a lot of very oor people to suffer even
more.

~~~
shagmin
Better a recession now than a depression later.

------
slumdev
On its own, this probably doesn't mean anything. But it's important for us to
pay attention. Technologists live in a world of negative unemployment, so it's
easy to forget that everyone else is subject to macroeconomic cycles.

Even if you were laid off after the Dot-Com Crash or the Great Recession, you
didn't have it anywhere near as bad as someone outside this industry.

~~~
downerending
> Technologists live in a world of negative unemployment

Just wait until you turn 50...

~~~
ellisv
Do you have any recommendations for someone earlier in their career (<50 yo)
to avoid or minimize ageism? Go into management? Be prepared to pick a new
career?

~~~
dominotw
Yea going into management is the best bet. Its a "controversial" topic on HN
because large swathes of ppl here here believe #IC4Lyfe is a good career move.
Its not.

~~~
joncrane
I agree that IC for life is not a good career move, but it's not the wanna-be
IC's fault.

It's the industry.

I work with this guy, he's about 60. I think he has a degree in Physics from
Oxford, but he has a Texas accent. He's kind of a nomad type of guy, bounces
from job to job. Got hired into the AWS "Cloud Team" shop on a project I work
on. Doesn't have any AWS certifications. As far as I know, barely touched AWS
and never touched Python, CloudFormation, or Jenkins before this job (but he
knows just about every *ix flavor there is). Basically a lifelong Linux
Sysadmin. I have no idea how he got the job.

Within a month he was writing his own CloudFormation, Lambdas, and
Jenkinsfiles. He almost immediately intuited the whole "Zip up the Python and
all its dependencies, throw on S3, use CFT to deploy the Lambda using that Zip
file" method of deploying lambdas. Note this is with multiple accounts so you
need to get the whole IAM delegation between accounts stuff. He's a natural.

I'm in awe of this guy.

I truly believe that HN is full of people than can be like this. The problem
is that most hiring managers do not.

------
mywittyname
This happened yesterday:

[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-16/u-s-to-
ch...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-16/u-s-to-change-
procedures-for-release-of-major-economic-data)

I can't help but see a relationship here between bad economic news and
attempts to curb the release of such.

~~~
sremani
That works other way too. The Media baron running for President influencing
the framing of standard bureaucratic changes.

We only see, what we want to see!

~~~
hhs
The AP has more context about this:
[https://apnews.com/cde6768a1c300c7d167f19f676d0d515](https://apnews.com/cde6768a1c300c7d167f19f676d0d515)

The FT also gives useful analysis:
[https://www.ft.com/content/e3ec2f00-3886-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3c...](https://www.ft.com/content/e3ec2f00-3886-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4)

------
m3kw9
This doesn't indicate if is good or bad. You need to know employment rate as
well, all the job could be getting filled faster than they are opened.

~~~
CameronNemo
Good? Bad? Market economies do not operate based on these notions. This
certainly indicates a slowing in demand for labor. Employment rate is not the
full picture either -- wages being stagnant would support the low demand for
labor hypothesis even if employment was high.

~~~
merpnderp
Hit this link and use the Wage Level filter. The poor are seeing faster wage
growth than any other income quintile. The richest wage earners are seeing the
slowest growth - income equality must be dropping quickly, even if wealth
inequality might not be do to stock ownership.

[https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-
tracker.aspx](https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker.aspx)

------
joelbluminator
I actually kinda want the stock market to crash although all of my money is in
it. At least we'd all stop worrying about when it's gonna crash once it has
and move on with our lives :)

~~~
erikpukinskis
A coworker told me he thinks as long as people think it might crash it won’t
crash.

~~~
arcturus17
That makes no sense.

~~~
rmah
The thinking behind "as long as people think it will crash, it won't crash" is
as follows...

1) most people thinking that a crash is near means that they view the stock
market to be overpriced.

2) this means they won't buy as much and inflate prices even further. in fact,
many may start to sell.

3) this will tend to limit price increases and may even depress the markets a
bit

4) Thus, while there may be a decline if economic conditions turn sour,
there's a lower likelihood of a "crash" (large drop from current prices).

~~~
nck4222
Or alternatively:

3) this will cause prices to start dropping, which increases uncertainty, and
causes additional sells.

4) thus we enter a loop where uncertainty increases, which causes more
selling, which causes price decreases, and the market crashes.

Market prices are largely a function of market confidence. If confidence
erodes, so does the market. It's how bubbles burst.

------
hhs
If interested, this is the economic news release:
[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm)

------
treydey
BLS reports will typically get revised but this could be an indicator for full
employment. Yes, the stock market is at all time highs - this is a common
occurrence if you take a look at historical charts. However, the stock market
!= economy.

------
tracer4201
Does the US government provide metrics on job openings by wages or some
measurement of monthly or annual earnings?

My portfolio has been doing fantastic, but I have to stop and wonder how the
average person who doesn’t have assets is doing.

~~~
asdfqwer234
Given wages not increasing with COL in cities and availability of credit
(student loans, rising rents, credit cards, low interest rates) I'd assume
poorly

~~~
frockington1
Numbers prove your assumptions wrong. Take a look over at the bureau of labor
reports, Q4 2019 is out

~~~
sdinsn
Except he's right. Wages have increased with respect to CPI, but not to COL.
The housing market has consistently and significantly outpaced salaries.

------
gremlinsinc
I have a feeling we're entering a job bubble, and possibly a recession... if
it hits by November, I'm betting there will be another blue wave. Actually,
that might happen regardless, but the blame will likely fall on the President,
it usually does. Digital Ocean just announced layoffs, so it's possible a lot
more might follow. I think a lot of VC bets like magic leap, and WeWork and
Uber might go sour and hurt investments going into the 2020's.

~~~
fred_is_fred
I think extrapolating the entire tech or startup economy off an extremely
small company in a commodity area of computing is not a good decision.

------
rdlecler1
We’d really need to see more historical data and also how that correlates with
employment levels. It could mean nothing, it could even be a positive
indicator but they didn’t provide enough information to make those
interpretations so the null hypothesis is that this is bad.

------
cryptozeus
Here is another look at the jobs though...paints a different picture

[https://economicgraph.linkedin.com/resources/linkedin-
workfo...](https://economicgraph.linkedin.com/resources/linkedin-workforce-
report-january-2020)

------
mgh2
I base my recession predictor on BS detection. The dot-com bubble and mortgage
crisis were driven by lies, this time is no different with buybacks. You
cannot outrun truth forever.

------
o_p
What a bs title, U.S. job opening post second biggest drop in more than five
years, doesnt sound as scary I guess

~~~
knz
Why stop at five years? How does this compare to job openings in 1776?

More seriously, bounds have to be set on a comparison like this for it to have
relevance.

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_cycles#Short_te...](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_cycles#Short_term_and_longer_term_cycles)
suggests that "Cyclical cycles generally last 4 years, with bull and bear
market phases lasting 1–3 years, while Secular cycles last about 30 years with
bull and bear market phases lasting 10–20 years."

Assuming this is true or widely accepted by economists, four years seems like
an appropriate length of time for a comparison such as this.

------
derp_dee_derp
lets parse this out:

"U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years"

becomes

<economic statistic that is rarely cited and no one has cared about before>
post biggest drop in more than <arbitrary time frame>"

becomes

<economic statistic taht is rarely cited and no one has cared about before>
post <scary descriptor> in more than <arbitrary time frame>"

becomes

"<holy shit live in fear the sky is falling and you should panic>"

~~~
tzs
> <economic statistic that is rarely cited and no one has cared about before>
> post biggest drop in more than <arbitrary time frame>"

I recall seeing job opening changes regularly cited in the news for pretty
much as long as I've been an adult (around 40 years)...it was probably cited
before that too but I didn't pay much attention to the news when I was a kid.

------
skrowl
All 3 stock indexes record high opening. Consumer confidence 20 year high.
Enormous USMCA trade deal finally passed by US Congress after the House sat on
it for a year.

Reuters just salivating over finding something they can spin as negative about
the current economy.

~~~
aerovistae
Except, of course, as people are finally starting to notice and point out,
high stocks only benefit the top 10% of society, and are a useless indicator
for the vast majority, who have little to no holdings.

~~~
Turing_Machine
> high stocks only benefit the top 10% of society, and are a useless indicator
> for the vast majority, who have little to no holdings.

This is absolutely not true. Most pension plans are at least partially
invested in stocks.

~~~
grecy
And what percentage of the poorest 50% of Americans have even $5,000 in any
kind of retirement savings?

~~~
getoveritbruh
With platforms like robinhood, and the trend toward lowering the bar to
investment, even people like me ( <3% of income is "disposable" (which in and
of itself probably isnt true as I have student debt)) can start doing SOME
investment. Ive been poor my whole life, and have made a point since my teens
to keep savings. Only recently did I begin investing however. This is a result
of benig surrounded by people who don't make enough money to buy the things
they do. Everyone has a choice of how to spend there money. To pretend the 12
bucks you spent on PBR and cigs is a better way to spend the money than to put
it towards savings is the crux of the problem according to my personal
experience.

~~~
npo9
> To pretend the 12 bucks you spent on PBR and cigs is a better way to spend
> the money than to put it towards savings is the crux of the problem
> according to my personal experience.

Expensive habits are terrible for your personal finances. I like to look at
habits like that in a weekly, monthly, and yearly cost. Seeing that a $40/week
habit is $2,080/year really helps me put my spending choices in perspective.

