
Experts say Olympics must be moved or postponed because of Zika - graeme
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2016/05/27/125-experts-say-olympics-must-be-moved-or-postponed-because-of-zika/
======
sago
Every day hundreds of thousands of people fly in and out of Brazil to and from
all corners of the world. Rio Galeão alone handles 17m passengers per year,
much more than the total number of Olympic tickets available (most of which
are sold to Brazilians, and most of the attendees buy more than just one).

Nobody I can find is giving credible numbers that show the olympics will
constitute a significant increase to affected areas over the year as a whole
(edit: as adevine points out, below, the article puts the increase at c
0.0025), nor that travel is currently only from a handful of places worldwide.

If international travel to Rio is a public health problem, then focussing on
the olympics is pure tokenism.

~~~
graeme
What percent of current travel comes from areas where Zika could exist, but
doesn't? And what amount of travel from such places will the Olympics bring?

Total volume isn't the right consideration if almost all visitors are from
places that Zika already exists or can't exist.

Update: I checked the stats: 93% of visitors to Brazil come from places where
Zika already is or can't go:

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Brazil](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Brazil)

5% are from Asia. Africa isn't mentioned, but it must be less than 2%, part of
which would be from North African countries that can't get Zika.

The olympics will bring visitors from every country. It should increase the
speed with which the virus reaches sub Saharan African, and Southern Asia.

I don't think your information actually allays any of the concerns, as the
total stats refer to visitors from different countries than those who will be
visiting during the olympics.

~~~
sytelus
You also have to see probability of someone getting infacted. I am seeing
number in range of 500 for population of 10M. I suspected car accidents
probably has higher fatality rates.

~~~
jfoster
> I am seeing number in range of 500 for population of 10M.

Over what time period?

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cmurf
Maybe there should be an Olympic nation. Some country just gives up the land,
their claim of sovereignty over it, hand it over the U.N. (certainly not the
IOC) and wealth redistribute without all of this stupid waste. Billions of
dollars spent with a moving olympics and all the infrastructure ends up not
being used for pretty much anything ever again. It's one of the most idiotic
things on the planet. I like the olympics, sorta, but how we make them work is
immensely wasteful. The very possibility it would be canceled and the
infrastructure never used for its intended purpose even once makes that all
the more apparent.

~~~
alkonaut
Or just hand it to states/cities that can manage it - I.e. has ALL arenas
already built, has enough hotels and so on.

It would then pretty much be the last 5 mega-venues (Beijing, London, ...)
that could tanke turns re-doing it. Which would be a good thing.

Next option is not having it in one place. It can be a global event. It
wouldn't matter if athletics is in Berlin while all the cycling is in Madrid.
Would only be worse for on-site fans.

~~~
the_watcher
Unfortunately, that reduces opportunities for graft and corruption in the
cities that host them, as well as eliminates the main source of bribes that
IOC leaders thrive on. Simply won't happen.

------
MicroBerto
As a spectator and not a competitor, I'd be far more concerned about the crime
in Rio.

It's tough to know what's _really_ going on with their crime (given our
sensationalist media and my not living there)... but you couldn't pay me
enough money to go to the 2016 Olympics.

~~~
ars
> but you couldn't pay me enough money to go to the 2016 Olympics.

Weelllll, with enough money you could hire body guards, or just not worry
about how much is stolen from you :)

~~~
MicroBerto
I know you're messing around, but that's a lot of unnecessary risk for a
reward that I can just delay for four or eight years when the Olympics are in
a reasonable country.

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dredmorbius
I find it interesting that James Burke, in an interview some years after his
_Connections_ series, discussing how he'd continue the series, said of the jet
airline that he'd explore its role as a vector of international disease
transmission.

[https://archive.org/details/JamesBurkeReConnections_0](https://archive.org/details/JamesBurkeReConnections_0)

~~~
dave2000
Did he stay true to his word?

~~~
dredmorbius
He's not produced another TV series so far as I know.

He _has_ been pursuing his knowledge-web concept for the past couple of
decades, though I also get the feeling his game's slipped a bit. The first
_Connections_ and _The Day the Universe Changed_ are really his best work.
_Both_ remain _quite_ relevant to this day.

The Knowledge Web concept is ... interesting, but of itself I don't find it
quite so fundamental or useful as the concepts of Connections & TDTUC.

On the other hand, you remind me that sinks and unintended consequences seem
to be particularly potent late-stage factors in technological revolutions.

------
abhi3
Imagine athletes from poorer states take it back to their countries which
don't have good healthcare infrastructure and it becomes an uncontrollable
epidemic there. A very real possibility of Half a Million people taking the
virus back to every city on the planet and all they are saying is we'll use
mosquito repellents near the stadiums and hotels and everything will be fine.

I understand that there's a lot of money and sunk cost at stake for Brazil and
IOC but their adamance over this is dangerous.

------
persona
It's amazing that neither the article nor the 100+ comments take into account
that the Olympics will occur in August, which is winter in Brazil. Truly Rio
doesn't freeze but historical numbers of dengue infections for example are the
lowest during that month. By a factor of 300 in some data. Of course 1
infection is one too much, but if weather comes in as it usually does, August
won't see many mosquitoes attending the olympics.

------
habosa
It seems like there are a laundry list of reasons not to have the Olympics in
Brazil this year:

    
    
      * Zika
      * President was impeached, rampant corruption farther down
      * Crime and social unrest arising from the massive amount of money spent on Olympics vs social programs
      * Reports of pollution making watersports unsafe
    

But the Olympics will definitely happen there, of course. Too much money
already spent or planned to be spent.

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nomercy400
113 of the 149 experts are from the US and Canada. 3 are from South America.
Dunno, but it seems that a large portion of the rest of the world's experts
doesn't care or doesn't see it this way.

Also, the Olympics are a billion dollar business. Billions of dollars VS
faster spreading of Zika. Billions. They aren't going to postpone it.

~~~
ChuckMcM
[engage cynic mode ...]

And health care is a trillion dollar business, so don't cancel the Olympics,
instead buy call options on the various pharma companies that might provide a
vaccine soonest and invest in any lab that is working on a fast blood test for
keeping the blood supply clean.

[/engage]

Random questions I don't see coming up in the news coverage, does anyone know
how long Zika remains in the blood stream post infection? Are you immune once
you've had it once? What are the risks to pregnant women a year after they
have been infected?

~~~
shkkmo
The article says the risks extend beyond just pregnant women:

"The virus has also been linked to neurological disorders in adults."

~~~
ChuckMcM
But clearly the neurological disorders are rare, as Brazil has had saturation
level Zika exposure and a noted uptick in birth defects, it has not had a
similarly sized (or even noted that I can find) uptick in neurological
disorders.

This is made even more interesting because the set of people who have
contracted the virus and have brains, is significantly larger than the set of
people who have contracted the virus and are pregnant (which is a proper
subset of the above group). So from a risk perspective it seems less of an
issue than West Nile in men/non-pregnant women.

~~~
neuro_imager
The time from infection to clinical presentation is likely to be a lot longer
in the case of a neurological disorder which effects adults than in utero
consequences.

If there is a substantial increase in neurological sequelae, we're likely to
only see this uptick several years from now.

------
dave2000
They say it's too hot in Qatar to hold the World Cup too, but you can't argue
with money.

~~~
heyheyhey
Well, they did move the World Cup to the Winter thus, causing the domestic
leagues in Europe to lose plenty of money.

------
corybrown
Can anything really stop the worldwide spread at this point? Even without the
olympics, it's already throughout Latin America, which sees plenty of
travelers on aggregate

~~~
wrsh07
You wouldn't stop the worldwide spread -- just delay it. This was mentioned in
the Harvard Public Health Review [1].

Time is important, here, because scientists are racing the spread of Zika to
develop eg vaccines.

[1] [http://harvardpublichealthreview.org/off-the-podium-why-
rios...](http://harvardpublichealthreview.org/off-the-podium-why-
rios-2016-olympic-games-must-not-proceed/)

------
gyakovlev
Plague Inc. players know how Olympics helps to spread the disease.

------
belzebub
Won't someone think of the sponsors!?

~~~
ftio
Not if the olympics aren't held.

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SCAQTony
CDC: Zika Transmission Risks:

Through mosquito bites, From mother to child, Through sexual contact, Through
blood transfusion.

"... Anyone who lives in or travels to an area where Zika virus is found and
has not already been infected with Zika virus can get it from mosquito bites.
Once a person has been infected, he or she is likely to be protected from
future infections. ..."

[http://www.cdc.gov/zika/transmission/](http://www.cdc.gov/zika/transmission/)

~~~
transfire
What is the incubation period? Surely the window of contagion is fairly small
-- a few weeks?

Considering Zika is rarely ever deadly (has anyone died from it yet?), what is
the point of a vaccine? Just give everyone the disease (excluding pregnant
woman of course).

~~~
jfoster
I don't think that will work well.

Everyone (except pregnant women) => Virtually all mosquitoes => Pregnant women

------
jlg23
I'd like to know how reliable the data on Rio is. Are there more Zika
infections than in the poor north eastern part of Brazil or are (suspected)
cases just much more like to be reported due to easier access to qualified
medical care? Is distribution in Rio uniform or does it mostly concern very
poor areas which are very unlikely to be visited by tourists anyway?

NB: The dengue data they refer to[1] shows a sharp decline in infections from
May on, at the end of the wet season (obviously inferring from 2015 data).

[1]
[http://www.rio.rj.gov.br/dlstatic/10112/5880996/4153672/deng...](http://www.rio.rj.gov.br/dlstatic/10112/5880996/4153672/denguenotificadosexcetodescartadosMes2015_25_01_2016.htm)

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the_watcher
Too much money is at stake (advertisers, networks, etc) for the Olympics to be
postponed, but if they move it, I wonder if there is anywhere in the world
that could be ready to host it at that time. London deconstructed much of
their infrastructure, so they're out. Beijing perhaps? Honestly, Los Angeles
could probably handle it by housing the athletes at UCLA and USC and expanding
the geographic range of events down to San Diego and up towards Santa Barbara.

~~~
jfoster
Moving it seems like a mammoth task. Think of all the flight & hotel bookings
that would change. The disruption it would cause makes it near impossible that
it will be changed now, I think.

I don't mean to suggest that it wouldn't be worth cancelling or changing if
the health risk is so big, just that (like with climate change), humans have a
disorder when it comes to this sort of thing.

~~~
the_watcher
Oh, I'm not suggesting it would be easy. The logistics alone make it near
impossible, as the hotels and airlines would need to be comped. I was speaking
specifically about whether or not it would even be feasible to move it based
solely on having a location that has the infrastructure to support it.

------
daodedickinson
I have no problem with the Olympics as long as we realize that it is a party,
a festival, a celebration. I don't expect my parties to turn a profit. If
people can agree to it while understanding the cost, fine; but I am tired of
demagogues telling democracies that everything they propose will "bend the
cost curve down" and result in lower taxes, higher revenues, and cheaper
everything.

------
codecamper
Portugal has strong links to Brazil, as they both speak the same language.

Looks like this is leading to a slow rise in Zika in portugal.
[http://www.reuters.com/article/health-zika-portugal-
idUSKCN0...](http://www.reuters.com/article/health-zika-portugal-
idUSKCN0V5256)

Great.... I'm in Portugal! Dammit.

------
ck2
The problem with the "news" covering this is they are going to do the same
thing they do with hurricanes.

They will hype it in such a way that a serious threat becomes a joke and
ignored by those that see the topic being treated as clickbait.

~~~
DanielStraight
You know what... I downvoted you, but I think I misunderstood.

Are you saying that Zika and hurricanes are not really a big deal but are made
to seem so by the press... or that they are a big deal and the press poisons
people against properly responding?

~~~
ck2
That the press poisons people by excessive and irresponsible overreaction.

They are definitely dangers but instead of calm, logical, limited presentation
of the problem, the press goes insane and turn people off to the issue.

------
bernardom
Interesting: CDC chief says _not_ to postpone: [http://www.bbc.com/news/world-
latin-america-36401150](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36401150)

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OrthoMetaPara
If pregnant, don't go to Brazil. If not pregnant, don't conceive child while
in Brazil.

I don't really see the issue, here.

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kaonashi
That and the coup.

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tn13
Experts say a lot of things but that does not mean we gotta listen to them.
American public education system is run by Experts remember ?

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perseusprime11
Without downvoting, please remind me again why we need Olympics in this modern
day and age?

~~~
eprime
> in this modern day and age?

Without addressing the Olympics question directly, that question has 2 common
and somewhat overlooked fallacies:

* That a current year has the most importance compared to previous years because of its sequence. If we consider how people have thought about their own current year we can see that they also have thought that their current year has the most importance.

* That progress has happened and that progress always occurs and moves in an upwards direction. I suggest that looking at history can give insights into how progress does not inexorably increase and improve year upon year. Initially it may appear nihilistic or anti-progress, but I believe thinking this way gives humans more insight into maintaining fragile societies and to ensure that our worlds do get better, through hard work, and not through some automatic procedure that works via the passage of years.

I hope this helps answer the question in a more helpful and better way.

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foota
I live in the Pacific Northwest, and for a brief moment I parsed this as the
Olympic Mountains.

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hrathi
wth, are pregnant women competing in Olympics?

~~~
abhi3
Anyone can get infected, travel back to their country and pass on the virus
through mosquito bites.

~~~
sangnoir
Not true - Zika is spread by a specific mosquito species (Aedes aegypt) that
is not found everywhere[1]

1\.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aedes_aegypti#/media/File:Glob...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aedes_aegypti#/media/File:Global_Aedes_aegypti_distribution_\(e08347\).png)

