
Ask HN: Your predictions for 2018? - csomar
Similar to the previous years, predict what will happen in the next year. Please use lists instead of paragraphs. This is open for any kind of predictions (tech, politics, finance...)<p>2017: none?<p>2016: https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=10809767<p>2015: https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=8822723<p>2014: https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=6994370<p>2013: none?<p>2012: https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=3395201<p>2011: https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=1970023<p>2010: https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=1025681
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allanmacgregor
Predictions for 2018:

\- It will be a busy year for crypto, if only by the amount of ICOs that
launched in 2017. 2018 we will have more and (I'm hoping) an increase in the
number of mature Dapp in the market. \- We will have a big Bitcoin crash,
there will be a drastic correction on the price of crypto, specially when you
look at what might be driving the current raise in value for Bitcoin.

\- AR will gain traction and 2018 and become mainstream. VR will still be
years away from being common place.

More: [https://hackernoon.com/5-trends-to-watch-out-
on-2018-e9db731...](https://hackernoon.com/5-trends-to-watch-out-
on-2018-e9db73107ebf)

~~~
jjoe
> We will have a big Bitcoin crash, there will be a drastic correction on the
> price of crypto, specially when you look at what might be driving the
> current raise in value for Bitcoin.

What do you think is driving the uptrend?

~~~
allanmacgregor
Right now Bitcoin value is purely based on speculation, and interestingly
enough the more the price of Bitcoin increases the less usable it becomes as a
payment method.

Also there is some concerns that the bitcoin price is being artificially
inflated by the people behind Tether, here is some related reading:

\-
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/mystery-s...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/mystery-
shrouds-tether-and-its-links-to-biggest-bitcoin-exchange) \-
[https://seekingalpha.com/article/4129543-bitcoin-one-way-
go-...](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4129543-bitcoin-one-way-go-true)

~~~
jjoe
> Right now Bitcoin value is purely based on speculation

That isn't factual. Analysts have found an almost perfect correlation between
new wallets growth and btc's price. Transaction clearing delays will be fixed.
Give it time.

~~~
allanmacgregor
> Analysts have found an almost perfect correlation between new wallets growth
> and btc's price.

The question here (at least to me), is what all those new wallets are doing
with their bitcoin, what percentage of the community is actually using bitcoin
as a currency vs an "investment" and they are just holding.

Now, this doesn't mean that I don't believe in Bitcoin or Blockchain tech for
that matter, quite the opposite.

~~~
jjoe
Right now high fees are halting usability. But LN should ease that and
encourage wallet owner to transact more.

------
throwaway30yo
Bold Predictions with no repercussions for being wrong:

\- Crypto market cap breaks 1.2 trillion USD (50 billion usd per month
increase).

\- Cryptos without working software keep on increasing. Its the new "Don't
monetize".

\- Major data leaks continue in every industry, almost nobody cares.

\- Dow Jones 30k

\- Canadian PM steps down due to ethics violations.

~~~
allanmacgregor
> Cryptos without working software keep on increasing. Its the new "Don't
> monetize".

Care to elaborate are you referring to ICOs without an actual working Dapp?

> Canadian PM steps down due to ethics violations.

Lol, unlikely to happen.

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dmitripopov
2017 was pretty quiet, so we are probably on a verge of something spectacular.

\- Good batteries or small autonomous power sources is what we really-really
need now, so I'd expect that in the first place.

\- More advances in the area of AI creativity. Music and paintings are already
scary good.

\- Biohacking enthusiasts are about to bring in something really valueable.

~~~
allanmacgregor
> Biohacking enthusiasts are about to bring in something really valueable.

Have any more details? or links?

------
gallerdude
\- We’re gonna get close to full self driving, and maybe reach it.

\- A bit closer to AR and VR, but it’ll take a few years (4-6) before we hit
early mainstream.

\- I think we’re at peak wearable, but I could be surprised.

------
dragon1st
Brasil will win World Cup 2018 :)

