

What Would Paul Graham Think, About Poker - freshbreakfast
http://bryank.im/pgpoker

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mswen
That was a really interesting read. I am only a very casual poker player and
occasional viewer of WPT on cable. I am a multiple start-up guy, first as
employee, now as founder. Many of the points you made ring true.

I am reminded of the start-up where I was an early employee. It has an
interesting story of founder persistence. He couldn't raise a series B and had
to lay-off the 10 or so employees in July 2011. I thought maybe he would
either fade away or just go take a job somewhere. I was wrong. He kept the
tech alive with a bit of licensing here, a partnership there and some more
feature development on his own. Eventually he found a partner that really
liked the tech we had built and made an offer to acquire. In the end by
persisting and just keeping it "alive" for another 20 months or so post-
crisis, the founder was able to succeed. In baseball analogy, he hit a triple,
the angels a double and the VC firm a single.

That takes a lot of faith in what you have built, a good attitude to keep
selling or pitching even when it is just you and some tech behind the curtain.

Sorry I have kind of rambled but I think my connection is confidence in your
ability to make sound decisions even when it isn't working out at the moment.

One key difference that I see is that business formation is a much more
unbounded "game" than poker. Also the feedback loops on whether you are making
good or bad decisions are much longer in business than in poker. In poker I
get feedback in minutes on each hand. If I am astute I can learn continuously
and rapidly and improve my odds in a particular local game.

Another key difference is that in poker there is no ambiguity about who my
competition is. In business, especially with new innovations it is not at all
clear who the competition is. Is competition an internal process with a
stakeholder defending their own position out of fear of losing their job
(think B2B) is it another company or set of companies? Or is your competition
just tradition and inertia?

Anyway thanks for a stimulating and thoughtful analogy.

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freshbreakfast
Thanks for the comment! So I agree that the feedback cycle can be quick, but
even the best players go on extended net losing streaks, months at a time.
When you're putting in tons of hours and in theory making sound decisions and
you add up the bankroll, and those thousands of hours are all for naught...
well, that can be devastating.

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freshbreakfast
Hey guys, i wrote this piece. Would love feedback, especially critical :-)

