
Could Solar Radiation Pressure Explain Oumuamua’s Peculiar Acceleration? - madeuptempacct
https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.11490
======
okket
Previous discussion from 4 days ago:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18338927](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18338927)
(100 comments)

------
mindfulplay
Before we jump to artificial/alien origins, let's at least consider the basic
science before jumping to fantastical conclusions....

~~~
yantrams
I always found it quite interesting to see the parallels between arguments for
God and aliens -- X can't be explained by science so I'm going to jump to the
conclusion I want to believe. I thought I was immune to this kind of reasoning
but even I fell for it with Oumuamua.

The initial paper and comments by some experts convinced me that there is a
strong chance that this is a probe. It seemed plausible based on my limited
understanding of Physics. (Moment of Inertia, Stresses etc.)

But then a paper[1] was released claiming this to be a comet. I so wanted my
original belief to be true(because it was more exciting!) I considered the
possibility that their [2]model wasn't accurate. I was even willing to
entertain the idea of cover-up just because it didn't align with what I wanted
to be true!

[1] [https://www.space.com/41015-interstellar-visitor-oumuamua-
co...](https://www.space.com/41015-interstellar-visitor-oumuamua-comet-after-
all.html)

[2]A recent study claims that it was indeed the case and the probe is more
likely to not be a comet. [https://www.quantamagazine.org/interstellar-comet-
oumuamua-m...](https://www.quantamagazine.org/interstellar-comet-oumuamua-
might-not-actually-be-a-comet-20181010/)

Edit: Formatting

~~~
rdtsc
> I always found it quite interesting to see the parallels between arguments
> for God and aliens -- X can't be explained by science so I'm going to jump
> to the conclusion I want to believe.

In general I think it is because of baggage associated with "God". Which
God(s)? Was/is there persecution, torture, killing, suppression of human
rights happening or happened using the belief or lack of believe in said
God(s) as a pretext.

Aliens are a cute curiosity. That is, it is pretty safe to say we believe in
them or hope that they visited us without getting too many people upset. Which
is kind of what they did here. "Assuming this body can't outgas, and that the
acceleration came from the solar wind, then it might have these other
properties, including being an alien solar sail"

~~~
yantrams
Ugh. I just noticed how I bungled it up with my phrasing. I meant "argument
for manifestations of god/aliens/" and not "argument for god/aliens" And I
totally agree with you.

------
sunstone
When you look at the trajectory that this object took through the solar
system, coming within .14 AU of earth, you really have to wonder; what are the
chances that it was a random flyby?

~~~
Afforess
> _what are the chances that it was a random flyby?_

~99.9̅% chance of being random. Absent any sort of evidence, it was a rare,
meaningless event. The law of large numbers, however, suggests that rare
events occur more frequently than you'd expect. E.g 1 in 1000 year floods
could occur 3 times in a decade, since each event is statistically independent
from others.

~~~
lifeformed
99.9̅% == 100%

~~~
Roritharr
Wow, you just pushed me and my girlfriend into a heated debate regarding this.
Is there a list anywhere of similar unintuitive math properties/facts?

~~~
lifeformed
Hmm... I guess division by zero is sort of similar. And imaginary numbers? The
wiki article has some good discussion on it:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/0.999..](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/0.999..).

------
jwfxpr
The HN title needs to be corrected. The correct name is ʻOumuamua, including
the first punctuation character (an ʻokina, representing a glottal stop).

------
samspenc
> We discuss the possible origins of such an object including the possibility
> that it might be a lightsail of artificial origin. Our general results apply
> to any light probes designed for interstellar travel.

Could someone clarify whether it means what I think it is saying - that an
Arxiv paper is trying to prove that this is an object sent by an alien
civilization to peek at our solar system?

~~~
naikrovek
Anyone can publish to Arxiv; one doesn't need to be credible to publish there.
I am not saying these authors are untrustworthy, by the way, or that the
object in question is or is not of alien & artificial origin; I am saying that
anyone can publish a paper to Arxiv.

~~~
paulpauper
nope. from personal experience trying, you need two endorsements.

------
selimthegrim
David Brin is sticking to the solar radiation causing outgassing after a delay
hypothesis. Go figure - it was his thesis

~~~
ridgeguy
Seems at least plausible.

Comet Rosetta's perihelion was August 13, 2015 [1] and there was a big
outgassing event February 2016 [2]. Takes time for heat to propagate through
stuff.

But yeah, I'd rather it was due to radiation pressure on an alien solar sail.

[1] [https://www.space.com/30237-rosetta-spacecraft-comet-
closest...](https://www.space.com/30237-rosetta-spacecraft-comet-closest-to-
sun.html)

[2] [http://blogs.esa.int/rosetta/2016/08/25/rosetta-captures-
com...](http://blogs.esa.int/rosetta/2016/08/25/rosetta-captures-comet-
outburst/)

------
vijaybritto
I hope it's an alien probe sent by a mother ship. They should come and just
destroy us before we slowly destroy ourselves!

~~~
dgzl
Speak for yourself, there's still plenty of things I want to do on this
planet.

~~~
radisb
To be fair, he is speaking for himself.

