
Ask HN: What is the next housing bubble? - RyanShook
Are there any leading indicators that point to a recession in 2018?
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nabla9
Securities-based loans aka shadow margin.

It seems that nobody tracks them, so it's possible that there is something
brewing. If there is strong stock market correction, and loans must be paid
back people get into trouble.

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RyanShook
I wonder how common this kind of loan is? Article from Kiplinger about
security-based loans:
[https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T035-C000-S004-s...](https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T035-C000-S004-securities-
based-loans-are-risky-business.html)

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kspaans
Don't forget to look North. The housing bubble in Canada never popped in the
first place.

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jackgolding
Same with Australia.

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hodl
Esp. Sydney although that's now deflating a bit.

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api
Housing could already be in a bubble in some places. It's far beyond what's
reasonable vs. median income and is reportedly being propped up by a huge
amount of foreign cash making cash purchases.

A lot of commentators I've read say we're not in a bubble because these are
cash purchases, but this assumes there's an infinite supply of this cash.
If/when the cash influx stops the present prices may not be sustainable. I
doubt it would be as hard a landing as 2008 but you could definitely see a
correction.

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aprdm
There is a report by UBS for what it is worth:
[https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/chief-
invest...](https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/chief-investment-
office/features/global-real-estate-bubble-index-2017.html)

US seems to be """safe""" as per the report.

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AnimalMuppet
It might be housing. I'm seeing those "real estate investor seeks trainee"
hand-made signs at intersections again. People are placing offers on houses
sight-unseen because houses are moving so fast. The only thing missing is
extremely low percentage down payments; does anyone know if 3% down is back?

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bsvalley
No bubble, but higher interest rates will drag the prices down. People won’t
be able to afford the same house at 5-8% interest rate. Experts predict a hike
to at least 5% by the end of this year. So, more likely a price drop not a
bubble.

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cylinder
The US will get there again. Other countries are clamping down on lending to
contain house prices while the US is opening up lending once again. And you
can trust they'll do it recklessly again too.

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bkcreate
Car companies are offering ridiculous deals, and giving out loans to people
that don't have good credit. If I had to guess, they didn't learn their lesson
and will be in deep trouble again.

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SirLJ
Bitcoin and blockchain

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rajacombinator
Same one as before.

