
The curious case of the fall in crime - pg
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21582004-crime-plunging-rich-world-keep-it-down-governments-should-focus-prevention-not
======
gnosis
There was a very interesting article[1] recently about the epidemiological
link between leaded gasoline and crime.

[1] - [http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-
li...](http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-
gasoline)

~~~
Vivtek
I honestly find it dismaying that the Economist could publish a story
_specifically_ on the recent drop in crime and never have heard of this study.

~~~
swordswinger12
I just read this story and its longer follow-up in the print edition. They do
mention the lead study.

~~~
Vivtek
Then I find it dismaying that they know of it but intentionally refrained from
mentioning it in the online edition. More dismaying, honestly, as they are
specifically championing a panopticon solution to crime here and saying that
increased police expenditure and profiling has resulted in lower crime rates.

~~~
YokoZar
The economist generally has 1 page "summary" articles at the front of the
newspaper, and more in depth articles in the dedicated sections. Both are
available online. Trying to put every point into the summary would defeat the
entire purpose.

~~~
SeanLuke
Except that the link between the drop in crime and the elimination of lead has
very strong evidence, and the various social theories bandied about by the
Economist have almost no support. They didn't just not put "every point" into
the summary -- they completely ignored the biggest, best supported reason.

~~~
YokoZar
Here's the longer article:
[http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21582041-rich-
world-s...](http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21582041-rich-world-seeing-
less-and-less-crime-even-face-high-unemployment-and-economic)

The economist clearly doesn't agree with you, here's what they said about
lead:

 _Jessica Wolpaw Reyes, an American researcher, has argued that the cognitive
effects of exposure to lead were a primary determinant of violent crime, and
unleaded petrol is to thank for the improvement. But the causal link is far
from proven._

~~~
SeanLuke
The Economist needs to read up a bit. There is strong support for lead as the
primary determinant, and not just correlation.

[http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-
li...](http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-
gasoline)

------
blerp
I suspect this is due to the wide availability of very inexpensive
entertainment: game consoles, cheap flatpanels, internet, and smartphones. Who
wants to cause mischief whenever you can sit on the couch, surf the web, play
call of duty on a 50" screen, and eat a pizza that cost $5? The US should have
dropped xboxes on Iraq instead of bombs, and infiltrated the country with
Walmarts, Starbucks, and McDonalds. The youth would have come around quick,
our capitalist overlords would have made $$$ while saving lives and expanded
their loving grip on humanity. Just saying.

~~~
abecedarius
There might be something to that. See "Violence In The Media Prevents Violent
Crime" at [http://slatestarcodex.com/2013/06/22/social-psychology-
is-a-...](http://slatestarcodex.com/2013/06/22/social-psychology-is-a-
flamethrower/)

------
isaacn
Personally, I blame the internet for the fall in crime. The rise of internet
usage during the late 90's and early 00's certainly coincides with the fall in
crime.

I'm actually being serious, I can think of nothing else that has had such a
widespread impact on society as a whole. Our ability to be connected with
others, research information, etc. Misfits now have an outlet where they can
find likeminded individuals like never before.

Think about it.

~~~
brentm
It's certainly not the only reason but I 100% agree with you and have been
preaching this for a while and no one takes it seriously. There is just a lot
more to entertain everyone than there was 20 years ago. The internet &
technology as a whole has just increased the options of things to do. Kid's
aren't just sitting around and literally staring at a wall. Boredom forces
people to go out and find something not boring which can in some cases lead to
criminal activity.

~~~
geden
well it's not just about boredom, it's about the feeling of connectedness to
others.

~~~
Zigurd
I think you are pointing in the right direction re the internet. Crime is
cultural. The internet has spread cultural influence farther and faster than
broadcasting, even if internet culture is more diverse.

------
beagle3
I used to believe and repeat this rhetoric 10 years ago. But then I went into
finance and started noticing that BLS data resembles a work of fiction at
least as much as it models reality; That CPI has been redefined through the
years, and is basically not reproducibly measurable (hedonic adjustment and
owner equivalent rent are both measured in a non-verifiable non reproducible
way) and numbers are constantly revised in the least favorable direction when
markets aren't looking (that is, numbers look better than they are when
originally published, and then revised after most have already stopped looking
at them)

And this got me wondering - did crime rate indeed go down? Or is it just that
numbers are measured differently and thus look better?

~~~
moocowduckquack
Stuff like a tenfold drop in stolen cars in new york is hard to explain away
with changes in recording.

~~~
beagle3
While I generally agree, the devil is always in the details, and having no
specific knowledge I do not reject the reported drop in crime, but I certainly
do not accept it as gospel.

Tangentially related anecdote: 15 years ago, a friend of mine bought a house
on the (wrong side of an) edge of a crime reporting district in Philadelphia
for $80k. Across the road (which wasn't a highway or anything, just another
inner neighborhood road), an exact copy of the same house (same developer,
same year, same project, same layout, same everything) went for $200k at the
time.

Three years later, the crime reporting districts changed, and his house (and a
few others) were reported in te better district. His house value changed,
practically overnight, from $100k to $240k.

Ergo, report methodology can effectively affect related value significantly.
Quantum measurement effects on a macroeconomic scale.

~~~
moocowduckquack
If it was one set of figures from one country then you might have a point, but
you are effectively describing noise and for such a wide range of crimes
across such a wide range of countries you would expect the noise from
reporting changes between different jurisdictions to more or less cancel out.

~~~
beagle3
I am not arguing or contradicting you in any way, as I do not have any
specific knowledge - but there are globally misreported (or misunderstood, I
won't argue semantics) cost-of-living figures, without requiring conspirators
or any centralized planning - do not rule out global bias in reporting just
because a mechanism for such bias is not evident.

~~~
moocowduckquack
I don't rule out bias, I am just noting that in this case it would seem
unlikely to all be pushing in one direction for the reasons I stated.

------
dark_void
Let's not forget about the legalization and destigmatization of birth control
and abortion. Unwanted children born to poor and desperate mothers led equally
desperate liveas and often ended up in prison.

Also the awareness of the hazards of lead, such as in lead paint and gasoline.
A study showed the stunningly high lead levels in the blood of the prison
population.

------
revelation
Of course, at the same time, prisons are overcrowded, the media tells us the
world is becoming more dangerous every second and local police need SWAT teams
and assault rifles to protect them from the rise in crime.

~~~
shardling
Comments like this are basically predicated upon the idea that anyone reading
it will agree. That is, there's nothing persuasive put forth if I disagree,
and no real information offered. They're not very good as conversation
starters either.

So why the heck do people post them?

 _e:_ I care not for your downvote! Posts like the parent kind of ruin HN for
me, so if my opinion is so out of the new norm here I'll know to just stop
reading it. :)

~~~
derefr
Perhaps they're _bait_. Which is to say:

1\. You want to make sure everyone in a community is persuaded of some fact.

2\. But you don't want to expend unneeded effort in producing evidence to
convince them if nobody _needs_ convincing.

3\. So you assert your conclusion as a bald statement.

4a. If anyone _denies_ it, _then_ you know there's a point in expending
effort.

4b. ...or, maybe you'll just wait and hope that someone else gets annoyed with
the denial and expends that effort for you.

Either way, you've increased the probability that your point will be made. The
second strategy (#4b) is likely pursued more often than the first (#4a),
because given a saturated community of "vigilant believers", the likelihood of
the denial being fought will be nearly the same with or without you--and the
cost will be much lower without you. I imagine these people write these as
"drive-by" comments, not looking at the results, but feeling smug knowing that
they've sicced their in-group on any vocal proponents of their associated out-
group.

~~~
shardling
I don't think it's anything quite so conscious as that. The majority of human
actions are impulses, not calculated decisions. That's certainly true of
drive-by discussion posts. :)

I think in cases like this, the urge is just to show off -- to show that
they're not one of the "sheeple". The poster certainly knows that the POV they
expressed is already very common on HN.

It's not even that I really disagree with the claims. But this was an
interesting article, and there are so many more relevant things to discuss!

------
tudorconstantin
Nothing related to religion in the article though. I'd love to find out if
there's any correlation/causation between the decrease in crime rates and the
increase or decrease of active church goers

------
rayiner
While crime rates are at their lowest since the 1970's, it should be noted
that most cities are a lot smaller than they were in 1970. Chicago is down
650,000, Philadelphia is down 400,000, etc.

~~~
weeksie
Why should cities have more crime than suburban and rural areas, per capita? I
know we take it as a given, but I've not heard a particularly good explanation
for it (other than the Mother Jones lead article).

~~~
gizmo686
Purely speculation, but I suspect the reason is that it is easier to be poor
in the cities, so cities would tend to have more poor people, and poor people
are more willing to commit crimes because they are more desperate.

~~~
ameister14
That's not accurate.

[edit] I know I should link studies and such but even on the face of it you
can see inaccuracy; where are people more impoverished: rural Alabama, or San
Francisco? There are larger populations of homeless in cities, but you can get
a roof over your head for less money outside. That said, why would it be
easier to be poor in a city?

~~~
dpeck
for one reason mobility is much easier in larger cities. you are usually able
to be around without a car, albeit at the cost of time/convenience, or with a
car using less gas than if you're commuting from the suburbs.

also housing, while nicer housing in city centers tends to be very expensive,
cheap high density housing is nearly non existent outside of it.

~~~
ameister14
You don't really need the high density part, though. Let's take a small mill
town I know as an example. The mill closed in 2000, and left half the town
unemployed. Many of the people living there are still without full time jobs.
They live in houses; how can they do that?

They either bought a house years earlier or it's because rent for an entire
house is about $340 a month. Multiple people live in the house, so that cost
is split. They can live there legally and without resorting to squatting.

------
ChuckMcM
In the area of bank robberies, one wonders if it has become so easy to rob a
bank using re-created ATM cards or stolen credit cards that its simply not
worth driving up and taking money out of them. Besides you can rob a bank in
New York from Lithuania, talk about your easy getaway!

------
temphn
An alternate hypothesis by Stephen Thomas of Harvard Medical School is that
medicine has been getting so good that many crimes that would have been
murders in a previous era are becoming attempted murders.

[http://people.wku.edu/james.kanan/Murder%20and%20Medicine.pd...](http://people.wku.edu/james.kanan/Murder%20and%20Medicine.pdf)

    
    
      Despite the proliferation of increasingly dangerous weapons 
      and the very large increase in rates of serious criminal 
      assault, since 1960, the lethality of such assault in the 
      United States has dropped dramatically. This paradox has 
      barely been studied and needs to be examined using national 
      time-series data. Starting from the basic view that 
      homicides are aggravated assaults with the outcome of the 
      victim’s death, we assembled evidence from national data 
      sources to show that the principal explanation of the 
      downward trend in lethality involves parallel developments 
      in medical technology and related medical support services 
      that have suppressed the homicide rate compared to what it 
      would be had such progress not been made. We argue that 
      research into the causes and deterrability of
      homicide would benefit from a “lethality perspective” that 
      focuses on serious assaults, only a small proportion of 
      which end in death.
    

As for whether governments should focus on prevention rather than punishment,
it can also be argued that incarceration does indeed prevent recidivism during
the period of incarceration.

~~~
shardling
Err, did you read the article? It was about all types of crime, not just
murders.

~~~
brentm
It is an interesting thought though. With the (assumed) improvements in life
saving medical procedures coupled with the fact that due to cell phones you're
likely going to get help faster than you would have 20 years ago more murders
are probably turning into attempted murder. Although I believe all violent
crime is way down and if murder was just shifting to attempted murder violent
crime would of course remain steady.

