
Ask HN: Will this be the end of Airbnb? - naskwo
Context: living near Amsterdam, following the situation in Amsterdam (pre-Corona) closely, founder of Kamernet.nl - the largest marketplace for student rentals in the Netherlands.<p>---<p>Once the various quarantine measures have been lifted, and international tourism and travel rebound, I am hypothesising that cities will want to know (and control) where (foreign) tourists stay in a city, and that renting out rooms&#x2F;apartments to tourists without a specific license will be banned.<p>HN: your views?
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ndespres
One thing I think we'll definitely see is a reduction in the amount of
apartments available for rent on AirBnB. I've seen reports that after
lockdowns went into place in Portland OR and SF, that there were thousands of
new units listed on proper real-estate websites for long-term lease. That
tells me that landlords who were taking units off the housing market and using
them for short-term rentals, might have fewer AirBnB units after this is all
done. For a while at least I think AirBnB will be more of the "rent a spare
room in our house" units again, rather than the entire apartment in a major
city that's displacing a long-term resident.

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fullshark
Seems like the market exists for what they offer. Even if this wipes out
airbnb in the short term another company will serve the need in the long term,
baring new laws. Basically you'd need to see hospitality industry lobbyists
get some new laws passed murdering them as part of some sort of relief
package.

~~~
swiley
I’m not a huge Airbnb fan but the hospitality lobbies are pretty crappy too.
In the town I’m from they managed to make sleeping in your car a pretty
serious crime.

~~~
wolco
Where do you live?

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hn_throwaway_99
I think a lot of these answers are missing the point. I agree, AirBnB won't
die, and they'll be able to grow back into a solid business when this all
over.

However, AirBnB's original plan was to explode into cities before governments
had a chance to react, and that once governments reacted they would have an
entrenched, powerful constituency (landlords) who would help fight for them at
the local level.

That advantage is now gone. All cities now have a strong opinion over whether
they think AirBnB is a good thing, so as this pandemic nears completion there
will be plenty of cities who will outright ban AirBnB, and any disruption that
may have previously been caused by this action before coronavirus is now a
moot point.

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legitster
We operate 2 units out of our home. They were converted from rentals. They
were REALLY crappy rentals though and essentially illegal to rent out anymore
- lacking access to laundry facilities, kitchens, etc. But they are
comfortable and spacious and in a nice part of town, so they have made
excellent Airbnbs.

Housing shortages in our area are a huge problem - any apartment complex
proposal dies in city hall, so they are essentially banned. The only source of
new units are hotels. Our units are slightly more expensive than renting, but
still an amazing deal over an equivalent hotel. And a quarter of the cost goes
to local taxes (we're taxed at a higher rate than the hotels, btw).

Coronavirus has dropped Airbnb rates across the board - but occupancy has been
about the same (market pricing in action). We have noticed a ton more interest
in long term rentals (a. because it's so cheap, and b. a lot of people have
bizarre living situations right now), so if anything income is a lot more
consistent right now.

Airbnb's cut isn't that affected. It's still bizarre how much they make off of
a unit considering how little they provide. Their insurance never pays out -
their website and app are embarrassingly bad.

~~~
ggrrttyy
>It's still bizarre how much they make off of a unit considering how little
they provide. Their insurance never pays out - their website and app are
embarrassingly bad.

Then stop using them. There are plenty of other options.

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Raed667
I live in touristy city, and I wish nothing more than to see Airbnb crash and
die.

Finding rent here is mission impossible, most landlords will happily rent to
you for a contract that ends at the start of the summer, then you have to
figure out where to live for 3 months.

Housing prices are impossibly expensive compared to local salaries, and
landlords would rather keep a place empty for an occasional airbnb than have a
full-time tenant (that has a lot of legal protection regarding eviction).

My prediction is that this summer season is dead, and that many places will go
back to regular renting, I hope they never go back to Airbnb again.

~~~
cameronfraser
I agree, AirBnB is an unsustainable business and I would also like to see it
regulated out of existence. It is extremely classist. Only something that
middle class or higher can use while reducing housing availability which
primarily impacts lower classes.

~~~
ravenstine
I don't get that argument. Going by your logic, housing itself is classist
because people who aren't at least in the middle class can't afford houses
much of the time. And maybe it is, but then what? Are we supposed to abolish
classism because some people are less fortunate?

~~~
skor
I can give you an example. A cheap-to-rent apartment in a central part of an
old popular city in Europe, is now a pricy Airbnb.

This means that students, young families, people with lower income have to
move out of a suburb they we born, studied, have friends, etc. And now have to
find a place elsewhere on the outskirts, where tourists don't want to go.

This is apart from arriving at your buildings front door and having some
stranger stand behind you while you turn the key.. a very irritating
situation.

~~~
cactus2093
Airbnb makes the problem 10-20% worse, but almost no cities are building net
positive housing compared to their growth. People getting priced out will
continue to happen with or without Airbnb, until cities take housing seriously
and build more.

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timwaagh
I hope not and if it does, I hope Kamernet goes down with it. Your company is
taxing students for essentially nothing but an introduction. And it has been
doing that for decades. Not that I would normally mind your existence, but I
do now I hear what you are hoping and likely lobbying for.

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adrianmonk
I think you can make a reasonable case that, if we have a recession, it will
be OK for Airbnb. Maybe even good for them.

During a recession, people look for ways to economize, and one way is to
downgrade housing. For example, people who did live alone will get a roommate,
people will move to a smaller place, and some younger people will move back in
with their parents.

If this does happen, then occupancy rates (for normal leases, not short-term
rentals) will drop in many places, making landlords more interested in
alternative ways to fill empty units. That could work in Airbnb's favor.

In a recession, people would also have less disposable income for travel. That
will hurt Airbnb but it could also help them because travelers could prefer it
as a cheaper alternative to a hotel. During recessions, budget-oriented
businesses (like discount stores) tend to do better.

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mylons
airbnb has no serious liabilities, in terms of real estate, on their balance
sheets.

if they can go cockroach mode, and reduce spending (should be easy with
discipline and layoffs), they’ll still be a multi billion dollar company in
2021-2022.

and i say this thinking they’re ultimately a cancer on society.

~~~
fennecfoxen
Contrast this with WeWork, where people have been raising concerns about its
business model (short-term revenues and long-term lease liabilities) from its
inception.

WeWork is _dead_. The main question now is what specific necromancy the
venture capitalists will be performing on its corpse.

~~~
thaumasiotes
There's nothing wrong with, or unusual about, the business model. Short-term
revenues and long-term liabilities is how every other real estate company
operates. It's also how every bank operates.

~~~
Kye
Banks are required to keep 10% of deposits in reserve and pay into a deposit
insurance system. The FDIC can shut banks down or put them under control of
another in a crisis.

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keiferski
Many countries already require you to provide an address when entering (for
visa-free visits) or when applying for a visa. This is not a new phenomenon.

We will probably see a cursory medical test at borders. This will become more
complex over time as the technology develops.

Cities (and tax-paying hosts) make a ton of tax revenue from AirBnb, much of
which wouldn’t otherwise exist. I don’t expect any total shutdowns.

~~~
lm28469
> Cities (and tax-paying hosts) make a ton of tax revenue from AirBnb

Aha, sure. They pay next to nothing in tax in Europe. Some individuals pay
more tax than airbnb while making 10 times less money.

[https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https...](https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lavieimmo.com%2Ffiscalite-
immobiliere%2Fen-2018-la-filiale-francaise-d-airbnb-n-a-paye-que-148000-euros-
d-impot-46430.html)

~~~
keiferski
That’s why I included _tax-paying hosts_. Presumably individuals pay taxes on
their hosting earnings, and individual tax rates are often higher than
corporate ones.

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chadmeister
They're included in the bailout package that just passed [1] so no they're not
going anywhere.

1\.
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/a-guide-t...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/a-guide-
to-who-s-seeking-stimulus-from-manufacturers-to-casinos?srnd=premium)

~~~
scurvy
Only for temporary worker benefits. That's not much for Airbnb like, say Uber.

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lasgsf
This is pretty absurd as your hypothesis makes no sense. The drive for revenue
is going to override any government demand for oversight. Any government
stupid enough to put up this would kill tourism which is the lifeblood of many
cities. Money speaks and I don't see any government enacting this anywhere
irrespective of AirBnb being there or not.

Now for Airbnb I am taking the reverse and contraion position that they will
actually come out this ahead of most hospitality companies. Simple they don't
own any assets and have the ability to ratchet down or up depending on the
macro-environment. Also let's be honest here is that host will come back as
its a another way for them to monetize their assets especially the economic
situation right now.

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unexaminedlife
I'd prefer to see a revival of multi-family homes. It feels like there needs
to be a middle ground for people who can afford to buy multiple houses but
can't afford to buy apartment complexes.

"Investors" taking away from the single-family market in order to have airbnb-
style rentals probably wasn't at the forefront of the founders' minds when
they started it but they've done nothing to try to bring attention to it and
the impact it is having on people who are ready to make the move from being a
renter to being a homeowner.

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pheme1
Just sharing my friend experience, she had to end her exchange study early
from Europe (due to recent escalation) and back to Taiwan. My friend however,
wasn't a Taiwanese and require a place for her 14 days self isolation. She
ended up finding an Airbnb willing to host her during the self isolation
period (hotel usually have a central ventilation which isn't optimal for self
isolation).

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akmarinov
Nope, their main money drain is people and people that they don't really need
at that.

Does it take the thousands of people they have to support a couple of apps and
a website + user support? No.

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wprapido
You were already given some nice answers. Mind you, in many countries, a huge
chunk of AirBnB stays are domestic not international.

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biolurker1
If quarantine measures are lifted, it means that Corona is out so why would
the government want to track tourists more?

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rognjen
I don't see why they would since their expenses are essentially marketing and
R&D. And they've stopped marketing and instituted a hiring freeze. Perhaps
some layoffs might happen but I highly doubt that this is a death sentence for
them more than Expedia et. al.

Also:
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headli...](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines)

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aminozuur
No.

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buboard
That s mostly an issue for airports, and health officials, cities cant expect
all landlords to test their tenants regularly. Airbnb owns no properties, they
ll go in recess and probably scale down but i see no reason it s the “end”

In thr meanwhile, it will be transformed to a platform for normal, long term
rents

(If anything, trusted, and possibly provably tested renters from airbnb will
be preferred )

