
The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade - Reedx
https://www.axios.com/us-q1-layoffs-in-a-decade-6309b133-5212-4204-976b-347de6f4ad41.html
======
BluSyn
"The report said worry about an economic slowdown was the main driver of
companies' layoff intentions."

I sometimes wonder if these sorts of economic projections end up being self-
fulfilling prophecies. If everyone tightens up spending because they expect a
recession, that essentially guarantees there will be one.

~~~
mtw
It's not just projections or worries. Companies have real hard data, such as
sales pipeline, inventories, orders etc. If your sales pipeline is down,
inventory is stocking up, and your warehouse is idle compared to a year
before, it is a manager's job to lay off employees.

a few interesting reports:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/aydpbu/first_h...](https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/aydpbu/first_hand_evidence_of_a_coming_recession/)
[https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1110161228507348992](https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1110161228507348992)

~~~
fiter
This could leave you flat-footed when the economy picks back up or you realize
it was a 'blip', so it's not an easy/clear decision to make because you see
one or two numbers going down.

~~~
philwelch
This is the "bullwhip effect":
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect)

------
huffmsa
But then:

 _Job market bounces back in March with 196,000 gain in payrolls_

[https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/05/nonfarm-payrolls-
march-2019....](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/05/nonfarm-payrolls-
march-2019.html)

Everyone just kinda shuffled around it seems.

~~~
m0zg
Way to ruin the narrative.

~~~
huffmsa
¯\\_(ツ)_/¯

------
cwarnold
> The impact: It's the highest number of job cuts in a quarter since 2015.

Highest since 2015 is less surprising than “ highest in a decade”

~~~
tzs
Headline:> The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

Article:> The U.S. saw its highest level of layoffs in a first quarter since
2009

This seems like a reasonable headline for the article.

~~~
learc83
You can always find catchy headlines if you get specific enough.

"The worst performing Friday the 13th in a non leap year ever."

~~~
TAForObvReasons
This isn't a particularly contrived analysis. Year-over-year quarterly
financial statistics are extremely common, especially in company analysis
since many filings are quarterly.

~~~
airstrike
It's also not very deep. The unemployment rate has been at record lows for a
while.

------
Leary
This metric is incomplete without noting the number of hires. This does not
mean a net loss in jobs.

~~~
passthefist
I would like to see those numbers. Even if it's evened out with I'd be curious
if there's more churn now, which anecdotally seems to be the case.

------
rchaud
How many of these jobs are full-time versus part time? It's ridiculous that
the only numbers reported on are these aggregate stats, when we live in a time
where many people cannot make ends meet working two or more part-time jobs.

------
fideloper
Meanwhile, over here:
[https://www.apnews.com/eac21eae21bb474c82bdd09069619cb7](https://www.apnews.com/eac21eae21bb474c82bdd09069619cb7)

> Hiring rebounds as US employers add a solid 196,000 jobs

------
nytesky
So basically the fear of recession may trigger a recession? Laying off,
cutting spending and thus cascading economic contraction?

Don’t think that would be a liquidity trap, but this type of recession always
makes me think of Krugmans Baby-Sitting COOP model:
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitol_Hill_Babysitting_Co-...](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitol_Hill_Babysitting_Co-
op)

~~~
whoisjuan
Yes. Also known in economics as a self-fulfilling crisis:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-
fulfilling_crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-fulfilling_crisis)

------
__HYde
And yet: "Applications for US Unemployment Aid Fall to 49-Year Low"[0]

"Unemployment Rate Reached a Record Low in 19 States Last Year"[1]

[0]
[https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2019-04-04/app...](https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2019-04-04/applications-
for-us-unemployment-aid-fall-to-49-year-low)

[1]
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-23/unemploym...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-23/unemployment-
rate-reached-a-record-low-in-19-states-last-year)

~~~
golemotron
Layoffs plus hiring. Will people realize at some point that volatility is a
sign of health?

~~~
astrodust
"It's a sign of health," he says from the comfort of his yacht, taking a slow
sip of champagne between big spoonfuls of Beluga caviar all while watching the
city burn. "Just look at all those construction and health-care jobs being
created."

------
pascalxus
And yet, markets are nearly at all time highs. I'd like to see a breakdown of
who's buying stocks/equities.

EDIT: I know earnings are high, but much of our growth over the last 20 years
has been during 2-4% GDP deficit. I don't think that's been priced into the
markets. Markets may be assuming that the deficit party will continue.

~~~
bb2018
The unemployment rate is the lowest it has been in 50 years. That stat isn't
perfect but it is still that the number of people with jobs is about as high
as it has ever been.

~~~
bsnyder
Trouble with the unemployment numbers is that it does not account for
employment quality. There is a very high number of people who are
underemployed or those who have stopped participating in the job market.

~~~
kasey_junk
LNS12032194 - Employment Level - Part-Time for Economic Reasons, All
Industries - Lowest its been since 2007

LNU05026645 - Discouraged Workers - Has gone up in recent months after having
been lower than its been since 2007 for most of 2018.

[https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ln](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-
bin/surveymost?ln)

------
maerF0x0
meanwhile "Hiring speeds up as U.S. economy adds 196,000 jobs in March" (ie
adds as many jobs in 1 month as layoffs in 1 quarter)

[https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hiring-speeds-up-as-
econom...](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hiring-speeds-up-as-economy-
adds-196000-jobs-in-march-unemployment-flat-at-38-2019-04-05)

------
mandeepj
Job report came out strong today - [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-
market-news-april-5-201...](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-
april-5-2019-120248366.html)

------
bsamuels
is # of layoffs a misleading metric?

if the workforce is always increasing in size, doesn't the number of layoffs
each quarter have to go up?

~~~
seppin
I would guess job losses work the same way

------
vondur
That's weird, I just saw this from CNBC:
[https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/05/nonfarm-payrolls-
march-2019....](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/05/nonfarm-payrolls-
march-2019.html) So, what the heck it going on then?

------
mlacks
I wonder if this is a net loss or a gross loss; I would love to compare this
article with another detailing the amount of hires in the same period

------
bjourne
That's what left wing economists have been saying for ages. Cutting taxes for
the rich does not create more jobs. Cutting welfare programs for the poorest
destroys jobs. Trump did both:

[https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-official-the-trump-
tax...](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-official-the-trump-tax-cuts-
were-a-bust-2019-01-30) [https://www.vox.com/policy-and-
politics/2019/3/12/18260271/t...](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-
politics/2019/3/12/18260271/trump-medicaid-social-security-medicare-budget-
cuts)

According to them, cutting taxes can create some short-term growth spurs (like
what we have been seeing) but is not sustainable. In 2022-2023 we'll see what
state the US economy is in and who was right. Maybe Trump is the financial
genius who will finally make Reaganomics work after so many neo-liberal failed
attempts. But I wouldn't bet on it.

~~~
partiallypro
The layoffs are almost all lead by the retail sector, which is undergoing a
shift due to digital disruption from the likes of Amazon.

There is no evidence the tax breaks have created (many) jobs...but there is
even less evidence that it has "destroyed" jobs. If you can point me to a peer
reviewed study that says that, and not a Vox article, I'll gladly read it. But
I skim FRED sometimes and have never seen such claims from a legitimate
economist.

In fact a lot of these jobs were reabsorbed elsewhere in other sectors, that's
actually a sign of a fairly healthy economy. Which is actually pretty
astonishing given the weakness in Asia at the moment; but as someone I've read
(can't remember the author) pointed out the US has never imported a recession,
even during the currency crisis of the early 90s and all the problems that
Japan has had with growth since the early 90s.

~~~
bduerst
>The layoffs are almost all lead by the retail sector, which is undergoing a
shift due to digital disruption from the likes of Amazon.

Except YoY retail layoffs have shrunk by 20%.

And that's a very strange burden of proof to lay down for trickle down
economics, considering that tax cuts for the wealthy are repeatedly claimed to
generate jobs. Are you saying the job generation claim is a red herring? Would
you equally defend me not paying any taxes since it "doesn't hurt anything",
or do I need to be super-rich first to get the tax-cut apologizing?

------
tenpies
> Axios

Well that certainly explains the clickbait and built-in opinion.

------
cimmanom
Is it possible that that mostly just signifies the highest holiday season
short-term hiring in a decade?

------
egberts
Axios.com, cherry-picking news for the Democrats since 2009.

------
SubiculumCode
Best join the YangGang. Those layoffs will be coming for ya...

------
ccnafr
Not according to Trump

------
rb808
layoffs in retail, who knew?

------
hackerz2
alt take from Bill McBride of CalculatedRISK:

[https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019/04/comments-on-
march...](https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019/04/comments-on-march-
employment-report.html)

Summary:

The headline jobs number was above expectations, and the previous two months
were revised up slightly. The headline unemployment rate was unchanged at
3.8%.

This was a solid jobs report, and was probably boosted by some bounce back
from the poor weather in February.

What's with the HN editor's obsession with posting "bad economy" reports
lately? It certainly conflicts with their boosting SV unicorn IPOs.

~~~
ryansmccoy
IMO, politics seems like possible reason.

