
Second and third order consequences of coronavirus - sturza
https://docs.google.com/document/d/17YkH4kc63t7JI7JJZR6i3-iebJd7kfRAzAK_ssl8bt4/edit?usp=sharing
======
ceilingcorner
Looking at the creator bios, I have a tough time taking this document
seriously.

Nonetheless there are some decent ideas in here, even if the presentation is
less than ideal. My prediction is that many of these predictions are vastly
overblown. Most companies and people are treating this as a temporary setback,
not a dramatic change. The next time there is a similar event, I also doubt we
will see a lockdown of this magnitude. Economists and epidemiologists will be
studying this for decades and future response plans will incorporate economic
consequences of public health actions.

Remote work is a good example. Expect to see some shifts toward working
remotely, but not a widespread movement outside of tech. Most people _want_ to
physically work with other human beings, rather than sit at home all day. I
imagine we will see increased flexibility and redundancy, rather than a total
shift to working online.

~~~
alephnan
> Most people want to physically work with other human beings, rather than sit
> at home all day.

I'd have to wait for this to be substantiated with data. A dubious data
sample, but on Blind there was such a poll floating around and most
participants said they prefer remote

~~~
ceilingcorner
The vast majority of people aren’t on Blind and aren’t answering online polls.
Most people don’t even know what the word _remote_ means, other than the
television kind.

~~~
alephnan
To add to this, developers rear towards focused individual contributor work

------
alephnan
In the doc, the doc creator self-described as "Middle school dropout"

I'm sure the person is no dummy, but I have to wonder what is the value of
highlighting this? To show they are contrarian? Does that make the doc more
trustworthy? It feels like a lot of contrarians feel compelled to highlight
personality traits rather than let their ideas grow root

~~~
ceilingcorner
Logical conclusion of the tech world’s obsession with dropping out of college.
“Jobs, Zuckerberg and Gates are dropouts, so if I’m a dropout too, it means
I’ll be just as successful. I’ll even beat them at their own cargo-culting
status game by dropping out of middle school, rather than college.”

~~~
alephnan
A slacker once told me during university "C students are CEOs and I'm a C
student, therefore all of you will work for me."

Not only is this a fallacy, the premise is not backed by data.

~~~
ceilingcorner
There’s probably some truth in the idea that the students who focus
obsessively on getting good grades, to the exclusion of building social
connections, doing internships, etc. are less successful in a traditional
career sense.

Of course that doesn’t mean being a C student automatically makes you into a
CEO.

