
Montana's No Speed Limit Safety Paradox - presidentender
http://www.hwysafety.com/hwy_montana.htm
======
blogimus
This analysis is a joke. Have you looked at the data on this page? It is
inconclusive. The context is insufficient. What about overall traffic,
weather, non-fatal accidents? other factors such as visiting travelers or data
by county. Nowhere do I see data demonstrating any speed safety paradox.
Comparing fatalities in only two years? and look at the green and red boxes
between 1998 and 1999 for averages.

If you want to do a real study, start walking through some data covering a
wider range of years, like the 2003 reports here (which covers fatalities by
county going back decades):

[http://www.doj.mt.gov/enforcement/highwaypatrol/annualreport...](http://www.doj.mt.gov/enforcement/highwaypatrol/annualreport2003.asp)

Then you also have to consider improvements in auto safety over the years and
how many of what kind of car and driver demographics were in the fatalities.

Edit: More traffic and fatality data:

[http://doj.mt.gov/enforcement/highwaypatrol/forms/annualrepo...](http://doj.mt.gov/enforcement/highwaypatrol/forms/annualreport2008.pdf)

[http://doj.mt.gov/enforcement/highwaypatrol/forms/annualrepo...](http://doj.mt.gov/enforcement/highwaypatrol/forms/annualreport2007.pdf)

[http://doj.mt.gov/enforcement/highwaypatrol/forms/annualrepo...](http://doj.mt.gov/enforcement/highwaypatrol/forms/annualreport2006.pdf)

[http://doj.mt.gov/enforcement/highwaypatrol/forms/annualrepo...](http://doj.mt.gov/enforcement/highwaypatrol/forms/annualreport2005.pdf)

[http://doj.mt.gov/enforcement/highwaypatrol/forms/annualrepo...](http://doj.mt.gov/enforcement/highwaypatrol/forms/annualreport2004.pdf)

~~~
artsrc
The article alleges that matters of fact were also lied about, such as the
nature of the effect on highway funding.

If there were a study that suggested similar conclusions, what would the
result be? More lying?

It seems to me that the proponents of the law should have the burden of
conclusive proof, not the opponents.

Speed limits are a major imposition on drivers. They would have to have a
significant effect on fatalities to be worthwhile. What about spending the
same effort on other life saving approaches, such as mandating safer vehicles?
Is that more efficient?

~~~
houseabsolute
> It seems to me that the proponents of the law should have the burden of
> conclusive proof, not the opponents.

Why? It seems like the norm is speed limits, I thought that the burden of
proof rested with those contesting the norm.

~~~
pyre
Depends on what you mean. If Montana currently had no speed limits, and
someone was proposing that Montana impose speed limits, should such a motion
then place the burden on the opponents to defend the current practices, or
should it be on the proponents that are proposing new practice? Trying to say,
"well everyone else is doing it, so it is 'the norm' and we should just follow
their lead," is rather disingenuous. You can't propose a new idea counter to
an existing idea, then try to push the onus of proof onto the supporters of
the existing idea while skirting any proof of the new idea.

Similarly if the tables were turned, the proponents of removing the speed
limits should have the burden of proof placed on them as well.

~~~
houseabsolute
Eh, maybe. As far as I can tell, the speed limit was repealed in Montana
without much to back that course of action either. I don't see how you can put
the burden on the speed limit group when that burden was not borne initially
by those who supported its repeal. Seems to me that under that regime whoever
can get the law passed most sneakily gets to put a heavy burden of truth on
the other team, and then say that they're in the right.

Anyway, this generalization

> The lower–than–US fatality rates on the German Autobahn (where flow
> management is the primary safety strategy), and now Montana's experience,
> would indicate that using speed limits and speed enforcement as the
> cornerstone of US highway safety policy is a major mistake.

is totally out of line in an article that doesn't even address the technical
question of statistical significance or deal with potential biases Montana's
or Germany's automotive demographics put on the data.

~~~
dutchflyboy
I agree, the fact that the german Autobahn is compared directly to US highways
is laughable. It's comparing apples and pears: not relevant.

~~~
moron4hire
Why can't you compare apples and pears? They're both fruit that grows in trees
and they both have similar use culinary purposes. I can make cider out of
both, and the results are actually quite similar.

------
kevingadd
Almost everywhere I drive, people usually speed. As a result, the speed limit
is a constant distraction - I have to pay attention to what it is on the
current stretch of the road (some of the roads I have to drive on to get to
work change speed limits 3-4 times) _and_ to the average speed of people in
each lane, and figure out whether it's in my best interest to drive at the
speed limit, or whether I'm going to have people constantly merging around me
if I don't speed.

If the speed limit was gone, I'd just pay attention to the velocity of other
drivers and make sure I have plenty of room in front of me to stop - which I
try to do anyway. I wish some states or counties would try making changes to
speed limit policies.

~~~
dangrossman
They would except for two powerful motivators to maintain artificially low
limits:

1) On city and suburban roads, parents demand extremely low speed limits in
the name of child safety. This results in 25MPH and 35MPH zones on roads where
reasonable drivers would normally travel 40MPH or higher.

2) Traffic ticketing is a significant source of income for the local
government and police agencies. Artificially low speed limits allow speeding
tickets to be written on a regular basis.

~~~
tocomment
Don't forget it gives authorities a reason to pull over almost anyone without
needing a reason (except speeding which everyone is doing)

~~~
dutchflyboy
Personally I think speeding IS a reason. It's true that people can keep safe
distances without speed limits, however it's undeniable that people who go
much faster than the average speed are dangerous. Limiting the speed is one
way to try to get everyone to drive the same speed. It's a system and as long
as everyone sticks to it, there are less accidents. If you change the system,
no problem, but don't give this as an example to declare a country a police-
state. Your speed is completely in your control.

~~~
po
If that is the case, then they should pull over everyone who is speeding and
give them all tickets. They don't do this. Everyone behaving normally is
always in violation so the police pick and choose who they give tickets to.

The extreme version of that is called a police state.

------
alexgartrell

      > What about the extreme of No Speed Limits on 4 lane 
      > Interstate and rural federal–aid primary two lane highways? 
      > These same fact–based engineers point to the German  > Autobahn, 
      > where, with no speed limits, authorities are consistently
      > reporting lower fatality rates than comparable US highways.
    

This is an unfair comparison. Getting a driver's license in Germany is _much_
harder than in the US.

<http://www.german-way.com/driving.html>

(I am not a German, and only have the slightest idea of the actual laws from
German class in high school.)

~~~
Zak
I've spent quite a bit of time driving in Germany. I have some random
observations about German _Autobahnen_ leading to no specific conclusion.

* Autobahns have narrower lanes, and fewer of them relative to US Interstates. The most I've seen is four per side near Berlin. Two is standard, even in fairly high-traffic areas. Three is becoming a little more common than it was a few years ago, but it's still quite rare.

* Lane discipline is usually quite good. Passing on the right is illegal except for in traffic jams, and it's fairly rare that anyone does. Failing to cede the left lane to passing traffic when the right lane in clear is also quite rare.

* Drivers wishing to pass often become impatient with anyone using the left lane to pass at a slightly lower speed than they would prefer.

* Traffic jams are exceedingly common, often due to construction zones, which have even narrower lanes and very low speed limits. During a traffic jam, traffic comes to a stop, and occasionally moves for short periods of time at low speeds. During an extended stop, it is common for drivers to get out of their cars and chat, referred to as an Autobahn party.

* Very slight imperfections in the pavement usually lead to a _Straßen shäden_ (damaged street) sign and soon after, a complete rebuild of that section of highway. It's rare to drive for an hour without encountering a construction zone.

* Most cars drive at speeds between 80 and 90 mph when there is no speed limit. Truck and cars pulling trailers are limited by law to 60 mph. On occasion, a car, usually a high-end German make will drive by in the left lane at around 150 mph.

* I have never seen an accident on an unlimited-speed section of Autobahn.

~~~
brc
My experiences are the same as yours, but you've clearly spent more time there
than me.

I would say the two greatest differences between German Authobahns and US
interstate traffic comes down to two factors: \- road condition and
maintenance. The Autobahn roads are near perfect in design, drainage, signage
and smoothness \- driver attitude : as you noted, 'undertaking' or passing on
the right is not only illegal, it is considered to be rude. Someone driving
faster than you is in a hurry, not throwing down a challenge to you. You let
them on their way, not try and impede their progress. A single flash of the
lights to a slower vehicle to move right is not considered rude. \- I would
disagree on the average 80-90 mph on the unrestricted sections. I would
estimate that most occupants of the 'fast' lane in ordinary vehicles would be
doing 100-120 mph.

Another bonus of the Autobahn system is that 'normal' cars are more popular
than SUV's because you just can't drive SUV's that fast, unless you have a
high-end Mercedes, Porsche or BMW. Having an artificially lower speed limit
encourages oversized vehicles because the speeds are low enough that their
mass and frontal area don't affect progress and fuel consumption as much.

While I would say the study probably has some merit, it's very important with
these time based studies to allow for the increased driver survival rate in
more modern cars. I did not see that with this study, but it can be a crucial
factor.

~~~
Zak
I don't think the _Autobahnen_ are perfect in design and maintenance; in many
areas, I think they don't have enough lanes for the amount of traffic they're
required to handle. Freeway traffic jams are more common in Germany than in
any other country I've spent a significant amount of time driving in. I would
also classify the maintenance as excessive; they're so eager to repair minor
problems with the road that there are severe delays resulting from road
construction on a significant portion of drives over an hour.

WRT speeds in the fast lane: I wasn't talking about the average for the fast
lane. I was talking about the average for all lanes. It's common to see
economy cars driving at similar speeds to the trucks.

I think fuel prices have more to do with the unpopularity of SUVs than any
other factor. Regular gasoline here in Florida costs around $2.50/gallon. In
Germany, the price is around $7/gallon.

------
aresant
This is similar to a project that began in Drachten, Holland

The removal of traffic lights at one major intersection saw accidents fall
from 36 in four years to two over the next two years, and the average time for
vehicles moving through the intersection fell from 50 seconds to 30 seconds,
despite a rise in the volume of traffic.

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drachten#Traffic_experiment>

------
noelchurchill
I love ideas that solve social problems with brain dead simple solutions.

Unfortunately it's unlikely this solution will last or spread to other states
for two reasons: a) It takes the control from the authorities and gives it
back to the people. b) Because the states make a lot of money from speeding
tickets and it will be a lot harder to give them if there isn't a speed limit.

~~~
evgen
It is also unlikely to spread because the solution (no speed limits _outside
city limits_ ) covers a lot of territory in a sparsely populated area like
Montana and covers almost no roads in the dense urban centers in which the
vast majority of the population lives and drives.

Additionally, it is not giving control back to "the people", it is giving it
to _the driver_ and that is not necessarily what "the people" would want in
all situations.

~~~
sigstoat
in sparsely populated areas, people spend a lot of time on the minorish
highways, going back and forth between the populated areas. going somewhere 30
miles away isn't a big deal, because it isn't 30 miles of stop lights and
cross traffic.

~~~
philwelch
More to the point, you _have_ to go somewhere 30 miles away all the damn time.
If you live in a big city, you don't have to go to another city to see a
medical specialist or to go shopping.

------
metamemetics
Cars would probably sort more efficiently between left-lanes and right-lanes
based on their desired speed with the removal of an artificial anchoring
value. And if lower same-lane variance in speed is achieved, there would be
fewer dramatic changes in tailing distance between cars and fewer lane changes
required, resulting in fewer opportunities for accidents to occur.

------
kirse
I don't know about others, but driving above the speed limit (i.e. 75 in a 55)
forces me to pay extremely close attention to everything that is going on
while driving. That way, I'm actively engaged in passing people, constantly
scanning ahead to maintain safe following distances, and constantly updating
my awareness of the "bubble" that surrounds my car and where I can go should a
situation unfold on the highway.

Then again, I have to put up with New Jersey drivers here in Philly, so that
usually involves an entire repertoire of techniques to put them safely behind
you. For example, as I'm approaching a Jersey driver in the left lane doing
55, I'll pull the car nearer to the median so they catch my Xenon headlamps in
their driver's side mirror. This is preferable to flashing high-beams because
it's not perceived as road-ragey and casually alerts the yellow-plates that
you want to get by.

The MSF courses teach this driving style to motorcyclists, that in all
situations you want to know exactly where you would go to escape an accident,
and in general you want to accelerate out of any situation where you are put
at risk.

It's aggressive defensive driving at its best.

~~~
moron4hire
I just moved out to Philly from central PA and the drivers out here are
driving me nuts. In the 10 years of driving I did back home, I think I saw 1
person run a red light. Today, I'd be lucky if I got to see only _at a single
stop_ on my way to work in the morning. I've been here for 4 months and I've
already seen two accidents from people running red lights and stop signs.

------
DanielBMarkham
If I understand this correctly, by passing a National Speed Limit back in the
70s, tens of thousands of people died due to increased accidents (or more)

------
InclinedPlane
This is not a "paradox" in any way, it's merely a counter-intuitive result of
research.

------
gexla
Also working from memory. Before the speed limit went away the ticket was only
something like $5 as an F.U. to the feds. So effectively, there wasn't much of
a deterrent then. After the limit went away you would get hit not with
speeding, but reckless driving if you were going too fast, and that's much
worse than a speeding ticket. Today, the speed limit signs are back up. There
are a lot of very dangerous roads in Montana where you just can't go without a
speed limit.

Maybe the reason the fatalities went up is because people feel they have to
stick close to the limit even where it's not a smart thing to do. However,
people in Montana should know all "reasonable and prudent" because of the
horrible road conditions in the winter.

~~~
presidentender
A lot of dangerous roads where you can't do without a speed limit? Bullshit.
People can keep to a safe speed without being forced to on pain of ticketing.
The advisory signs (the yellow ones) didn't come down when there were no speed
limits.

~~~
gexla
As an example, I lived in a neighborhood where there were a lot of people
living and our only way to get out was to get on a highway where people
routinely drove at 75 mph or higher. There was a wide corner on one end which
hid oncoming traffic (but not enough of a corner to slow people down) and a
hill on the other end which also hid traffic. At these speeds you typically
have freeways with on/off ramps, we had to pull out directly into it. The city
ended up putting in a light farther down the road to protect a bigger
neighborhood but that didn't help our own. This road wasn't obviously
dangerous because of the road itself, the danger was from people getting on
the road at low speeds.

Montana has lots of these types of spots because of a state of drivers used to
driving at high speeds on roads which service a lot of very spread out
communities.

------
mrshoe
I want to run for governor on this platform: per-lane speed _minimums_

It would be hard to collect data to back up my hypothesis, but based on my
observation on the highways, slow drivers cause the most traffic and dangerous
situations. If someone is going slow in the fast lane, everyone has to pass
them on the right. This causes a huge bottleneck of people merging into the
middle lane.

If we need speed limit laws at all, they should define a speed for each lane:
85mph in the far left lane, 75mph in the next, etc. Pick your lane and go your
speed. Everyone in each lane should be going the same speed. It's safer and
more efficient.

~~~
mmt
_I want to run for governor_

Isn't what you describe a legislative, not executive function?

------
l3db3tt3r
I think the article is trying to hit at something more philosophical about
driving and speed limits in general.

The article had a lot of conclusions made, without the needed studies
documented. I wish I had the studies at hand to prove most of the conclusions.

I personally doubt the results laid out about Montana (in the article
presented) Only on a matter of time frame, the educational practices, and the
licensing protocol (that dominates american culture). People drive the way
they are educated, and a LARGE part of that is from their parents. REGARDLESS
of the tests and protocol new US drivers must go through.

HOWEVER, statistically speaking, There are things that the "engineers" and
other nations have proven to be more effective then speed limits and warning
signs. Mostly lack there of.

I think the problem goes beyond the laws, The designator would be the
education, licensing, and philosophy of driving. Change those things in favor
of the statistically correct method of driving, and well...

You want statistics, compare educational training across platforms and
nations. Compare Money (education, licensing, upkeep, and running costs, (ie
fuel)) Compare daily driving habits, (public transportation in Europe is...
better, to say the least)...

It would be a complex algorithm to say the least... But my personal conclusion
would be FOR personal judgment. Speed limits be damned...

------
jsz0
This appeals to my common sense. The most dangerous drivers I encounter are
the ones on the low side of the speed limit causing chain reaction lane
scrambling. Besides setting realistic speed limits we need cops to spend their
time enforcing minimum speed limits. Someone with a pickup truck full of crap
going 40Mph with other cars blowing past them at 80Mph is just not safe. In
the age of GPS asking these people to use backroads for low speed travel is
completely reasonable.

------
wglb
The title is slightly incorrect--there has never been a time in montana that
there is no speed limit. The speed limit in the absence of a posted numerical
limit was the "reasonable and proper" number.

It is certainly a complex area. I know that one of the issues was that out-of-
state people were going there and acting as if there were no limit.

I think there are other measures of usefulness of such limits as these--one is
wear and tear on the roads. The other is property damage. There is a famous
case of icing in Chicago a number of years ago where the express lanes in the
outbound Kennedy saw a massive pile-up. There were complaints about bad design
of that part of the highway, even extending to some officials. The engineers
responsible for the design pointed out that the road was designed for the
posted speed limit. If you have ever driven on the Chicago expressways, the
posted speed limit isn't even thought of as a challenge--it is totally
ignored.

Thus, here is one incident of property damage as a result of speed limit
violations.

So the issue is more involved than just the death toll. Injuries were not
noted in the statistics either.

Disclaimer: I grew up in Montana, and still have family there.

~~~
ghshephard
Re: "The title is slightly incorrect--there has never been a time in montana
that there is no speed limit"

== SNIP ==

During a challenge of such a ticket in 1998, the Montana Supreme Court
declared the Reasonable and Prudent Speed Limit unconstitutional, on the basis
of vagueness. Remember the Governor, Judges, Highway Patrol et al wanted speed
limits, rather than ruling the way the MHP was enforcing them was wrong, the
Court struck down the law altogether so they would be forced to have speed
limits, thereby circumventing the legislature's blocking of their collective
efforts.

To their chagrin, during this last 5 months of no law whatsoever Montana
reported its modern low in fatal accidents.

== SNIP ==

~~~
wglb
Ah, you are correct. I was thinking of the time during the reasonable and
proper in which it was often quoted that there is no limit in Montana.

I stand corrected.

------
kellishaver
I used to do a lot of Greyhound travelling in the late 90's. We were going
through Montana one night in either '97 or '98, and the bus driver was certain
he could make that bus do 100. I really was wishing for a speed limit then. Of
course, 2hrs later, he fell asleep behind the wheel and we all had to yell at
him to stop the speeding bus before we wrecked.

------
akgerber
This is perhaps applicable on interstates.

But not having a speed limit on other roads makes them completely impassable
to bicyclists and pedestrians.

~~~
artsrc
Has this been tried?

Designing roads to promote desired speeds may be more effective than speed
limits at reducing bicycle and pedestrian fatalities.

~~~
akgerber
It is. But considering how many roads we build like freeways in this country,
well-enforced speed limits are necessary for now.

