

Black Swans bust IT budgets - forgingahead
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-14677143

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mathattack
My impression is software budget overages are too common to be called Black
Swans. According to Taleb, there are two kinds of Black Swans. One comes from
underestimating the uncommon event. (Example: Having three ten-sigma events in
a week) The other comes from missing the risk entirely. (Example: A casino
having risk management systems for the slots and tables, but not for an
employee who doesn't submit the forms to the gaming comission)

With IT overages, most of the issues are known: \- Scope control \- Lack of
talented staff \- Lack of end user engagement \- Lack of sponsorship \- Poor
understanding of external dependencies and integration requirements \- Lack of
objective metrics of progress

When so many projects go over, it isn't a Black Swan problem, it's a White
Swan problem.

