
Chinese companies plan to be producing over 120GWH/year in battery cells by 2021 - rayuela
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-28/china-is-about-to-bury-elon-musk-in-batteries
======
okreallywtf
Even though I'm dubious about government being too involved in business, a
couple things stood out to me:

 _the Chinese government has launched a sweeping effort to increase the
country’s dominant market share._

 _“This is about industrial policy. The Chinese government sees lithium-ion
batteries as a hugely important industry in the 2020s and beyond,”_

 _That’s a huge opportunity, and China doesn’t want to miss it._

While its entirely possible that people in the government make the totally
wrong decision and end up wasting taxpayer dollars, this kind of forethought
makes me feel that the US is going to be left in the dust in terms of
renewable technology. I know there is a patchwork of federal and state money
that probably goes into things like the gigafactory in Nevada, investment on
this scale by the government seems like a total pipe dream here, it hurts to
see how backwards our government is moving on energy. I can see how people
will just say "let the market handle it" but when the best case scenario is
you save the world for future generations and the worst case is you simply
lose some money it seems like a no-brainer.

~~~
Jyaif
"the US is going to be left in the dust in terms of renewable technology"

China is already dominating the battery and solar panel industry. You really
have to stop thinking of the US as being #1.

~~~
conjecTech
They have the cheapest panels, sure, but that's because they're being actively
subsidized in an attempt to kill of competition. To my knowledge SunPower
still has the highest efficiency production panels and First Solar still has
the lowest demonstrated cost per watt for anything over moderate insolation.

------
strictnein
Just trying to work out how they claim Tesla will be "flooded". The forecasted
demand in the article is going to outstrip both China's increase and Tesla's
increase by 2024, and China's major market for their increase will be
domestic, per the article.

    
    
       Current demand: ~75 Gigawatt Hours (GWh)
       2021 demand: ~160 GWh
       2022 demand: ~195 GWh
       2024 demand: ~290 GWh
    

So the market will need an additional 85GWh by 2021, 110GWh by 2022, and
215GWh by 2024.

Tesla is adding 35GWh by 2018. China is adding 120GWh by 2021. 120 + 35 =
155GWh < 215GWh.

Seems like Tesla will be in a really good spot. They'll have a > 10% share of
a highly in demand product and likely be seen as one of the premium/high
quality options.

~~~
rottyguy
Plus Elon has said he wants about 10 Gigafactory to meet demand. On another
note, I would be interested to hear from anyone in the industry about the
state of Battery Technology. Keep hearing about the demand for Cobalt and how
Congo controls about 60% of the world's cobalt supplies and all the moral
issues around mining there. Are there good alternatives to using cobalt in
battery construction?

edit: Also curious about the impact of older batteries to the environment. I
see all this talk about moving to EV because it's cleaner tech, but is that
true if we have a billion batteries sitting in the landfills at some point?

------
samstave
Every single time I see the word battery, my mind involuntarily jumps to
"toxic waste"

What is any country or company doing to deal with the massive toxic waste that
will come from expired batteries?

Does tesla have a giga-recycle program?

How many duracells have you thrown out in your lifetime?

What is the sustainability of the minerals that are mined that go into battery
production.

All these and more, should all have rock-solid ELI5 answers to how they are
being dealt with.

If there is any startup that may want to have a positive impact on the future,
figuring out how to deal with battery waste may be a good one...

~~~
manicdee
Yeah, especially concerning given that no battery manufacturers are currently
geared up to recycle old batteries.

------
joshmarinacci
Won't this be a good thing for everyone, even Tesla?

~~~
loceng
Elon's been saying this from the beginning, he understands that is what will
happen. I imagine part of being able to move forward with big ambitions is you
have to make peace with that fact - otherwise fear of the unknown, of
competition, will easily overwhelm you.

~~~
TeMPOraL
It's more than that. That was the _whole point_. Tesla was built to electrify
transport. _Not_ to be the dominant player forever, but to force other market
players into this game.

------
parroquiano
I have a related question: Does this mean the top lithium-producing
countries[0] will experience an economic boom, similar to oil producers in the
'70s, or is lithium abundant enough in the US and China to satisfy future
demand?

[0]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_lithium_p...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_lithium_production)

~~~
awkwarddaturtle
The lithium prices may experience continue to increase, but lithium is highly
abundant. It won't help the "countries" that much. The US and china has tons
of lithium and so do many countries across the world. But most likely, lithium
prices may start to decline if the US/Russia/China/etc who have most of the
world's lithium decide to start mining seriously.

Certainly well connected mining companies might do well also. But lithium
isn't oil. Oil is the basis of modern civilization. It is in pretty much every
product you use and every industrial process. Even battery companies will use
tons of oil and oil byproducts to create lithium batteries.

Oil and lithium batteries aren't comparable. One is foundational, the other is
really a convenience.

------
JustAnotherPat
Is the battery industry really going to become a zero-sum game between China
and one guy? Shame on western economies for not paying attention to this stuff
until the tech becomes dirt cheap (at which point, China is always already
dominating).

~~~
mtgx
Almost the same story with solar panels.

~~~
baybal2
And REEs, and commercial genomics, and commodity SoCs, and greentech, and mass
produced CFRPs and so many other things

China systematically seals all upcoming greenfield opportunities for tech
companies and industry in West. A very smart play

------
mtgx
Before we know it, 1TWh worth of battery storage will be produced every year.
That should make EV batteries and EVs in general quite cost-competitive.

------
awkwarddaturtle
Battery production, recycling, etc and the batteries themselves are very
toxic. Seems like we are trading one form of pollution ( polluting the
atmostphere ) with poisoning our land. I remember it wasn't too long ago where
we were told not to use too many batteries because they were toxic...

~~~
madengr
Nickel Cadmium (typical rechargeable) and Silver Oxide (watch batteries w/
mercury) are bad. Lead Acid (cars) are very recyclable, and considering there
is no new lead production in the US, will command a premium for recycling. I
don't think Carbon Zinc and most Lithiums are a problem.

------
Justin_K
Quality will be noticibly shitty enough that there will still be a market for
Tesla.

~~~
xbmcuser
Unlikely the last decade China has been pushing its industries to go from
cheap and mass produced to better qualities at higher prices

------
siscia
As was already pointed out I believe that one of the most interesting
opportunities will not lie in producing the battery but on ecologically manage
those already produced.

------
djrogers
So an entire country of 1.3B people, with 8 factories under construction and a
dozen or so more announced are going to outproduce one US factory. Okay, why
is that news?

Seriously Bloomberg - this is what Elon has been saying publicly since day 1,
the entire Tesla vision was built on batteries getting cheaper and more
available.

The Gigfactory is important to Tesla not merely because of it's scale, but for
the advantages of vertical integration for QC, capacity planning, supply chain
stability, etc. The same reason auto manufacturers had their own steel plants
back in the early days.

~~~
refulgentis
The article discusses how China is building 4 gigafactories worth of capacity
by 2020.

It's unclear what your tone signifies, muddying your message. It's a couple
commonly known truths about Tesla, with a tone of "take THAT Bloomberg!"

~~~
djrogers
My point is the article doesn’t make much sense - comparing a country’s output
of anything to a single factory is of little to no point. The entire article
is fluff produced so Bloomberg could have a snazzy sounding headline: “China
Is About to Bury Elon Musk in Batteries”

The fact hat the headline on HN was changed to be less clickbaity instead of
matching the original pretty much says it all...

------
MechEStudent
I would worry about quality.

------
MechEStudent
quality.

I would expect many things to be prone to fires like both Samsung and Takata.
I wouldn't trust them in a Prius, a Tesla, or a Galaxy Note. Gas tanks haven't
spontaneously burned down cars for over a century, but they will do it this
century. Put money on that. I expect the first examples will be shown in
China, where manufacturers (21+ of them) can put carcinogenic insecticidal
fire-retardant poison in infant milk and pet food for years with what is
effectively impunity until it hits newspapers. This will translate to electric
vehicles.

~~~
dragontamer
Lithium Ion is always prone to fire. If you wrap it in a hard-enough case so
it can't be punctured, and then slap electronics on the end to "emergency cut
power" when a catastrophe is detected... you can prevent the fires.

The issue with Samsung's "explosive" battery was that it had to be thin (so it
had a soft case), and when you sat on it... it'd bend internal connections and
then short them out.

\--------------

Honestly... I'd expect China to build the typical 18650-cell without any
issues.

Unfortunately for China, Tesla isn't putting "typical" 18650 cells into their
cars. They're putting in Silicon enhanced Lithium Ion with optimized chemistry
for maximum power with minimum weight.

THAT's the problem. I don't think there's a very big marketplace for "typical"
Lithium Ion cells. Its about the recent innovations that have made batteries
lighter, more flexible, and deliver more power.

So the real question is: can China build Silicon-Lithium Ion Cells to the
specifications of Tesla's Gigafactory? I have my doubts. There's a reason why
Elon Musk built his own factory (with help from Panasonic)

~~~
baybal2
China was making superior EV cells since around 2012. For some time, they
banned export of unfinished cells and cell materials to favour makers of
complete battery packs.

This is what led to EV and hybrid car makers outside of China having to use
battery packs made out of consumer grade cylindrical cells for a while.

Tesla Motors guys have seem to have realized now how ridiculous was the
decision to build battery packs from small cells, and announced that they will
be transitioning to slightly bigger cylindrical cells for model S.

Still, current model S ships with commodity size cells. They may have decided
that it does not worth effort changing to big cells when they have just got
their factory running with tooling made for standard sized cells.

------
dragontamer
It depends on what the #1 usage of batteries will be.

Utility scale battery usage don't really care about the specifications. We
just need a lot of them, cheaply. Shear size can make up for a lot of
problems.

But Car batteries are highly sensitive to power, weight, cooling... issues
that require innovation and improvement. Its unlikely for any US Car company
to buy cheap batteries from China. They'll instead build batteries as a
competitive advantage over each other.

\---------

I can't help but think of China's "Great Leap Forward". They believe that
Steel is the future, but for large swaths of the country... the best "steel"
that China makes is Pig-Iron (an intermediate product before Steel).

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backyard_furnace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backyard_furnace)

If the "best" Lithium Ion cell that China mass produces has poor weight and/or
power density, then it has no use in a Car. Cells and Batteries are the #1
issue for an electric car. (More weight requires more batteries to lug
around). Cutting back on weight while increasing the power is how you make a
superior vehicle.

~~~
oblio
> Its unlikely for any US Car company to buy cheap batteries from China.
> They'll instead build batteries as a competitive advantage over each other.

Just like US processor or SSD companies build things themselves?

I'm being ironic but my point is that when China cranks up production I don't
see why US (or any other companies) wouldn't buy their cheap products as long
as they meet the required specs.

Edit: Comparing Maoist China to post-Deng Xiaoping China is kind of silly :)

~~~
dragontamer
> Just like US processor or SSD companies build things themselves?

China doesn't deliver cheap, high-quality NAND Flash. Nor do they make Intel
chips. Nor do they make Qualcomm chips. Nor do they make even AMD chips (I
mean sorta, IIRC China has licensed an AMD design but they aren't making
Ryzen).

Micron Flash is made in Virginia: [https://us.micron.com/micron-in-usa/us-
jobs/college-recruiti...](https://us.micron.com/micron-in-usa/us-jobs/college-
recruiting/manassas-virginia)

Intel Chips are made in Oregon:
[http://www.infoworld.com/article/2672745/computer-
hardware/i...](http://www.infoworld.com/article/2672745/computer-
hardware/inside-intel-s-d1d-fab----through-the-looking-glass.html)

AMD Chips are made in New York (Subcontracted to GlobalFoundries):
[http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1327435](http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1327435)

As far as foreign companies go... Taiwan (TSMC aka Nvidia's contractor), Japan
(Toshiba), and Korea (Samsung) are the other countries with 14nm or 10nm
fabrication labs. Those are the US's rivals when it comes to high-tech. NOT
China. Sorry to burst your bubble.

I think some of those companies build plants in Israel. So Israel deserves an
honorable mention. Singapore too.

\--------------

Ermmmm... yeah. The best of the best is made in the USA. I'm not saying "China
quality is bad"... but the fact of the matter is that China does NOT own any
10nm fabrication facilities.

China's manufacturing is a step behind the USA's technologically. Its a LOT
bigger however, so that's a thing. China just has so many damn people that
they manage to brute-force a lot of solutions. But unless they begin to push
innovative designs, they aren't going to make the best.

Most likely, China's cells will be a shock for the utility-space companies,
who DONT require high-quality batteries to do important things. Again, there
are plenty of uses of lower-tech MASS PRODUCED cells.

Ex: stick thousands of them into shipping containers and then hook them up to
the grid. That's damn useful. Its just not useful for cars.

~~~
rhino369
High end NAND is made in China, but in factories owned by Korean, American,
Japanese, and Taiwanese companies.

~~~
dragontamer
Erm, low-end NAND Flash is made in China. Lots of it, but its low-end.

Intel, Micron, Samsung, and Toshiba are making 3d-NAND, which has superior
specifications... allowing controllers to read / write them as Triple-Level
without very many endurance problems.

And the only locations for 3d-NAND are:

* Japan: [http://www.anandtech.com/show/10184/toshiba-to-build-a-new-f...](http://www.anandtech.com/show/10184/toshiba-to-build-a-new-fab-to-produce-bics-nand-flash)

* (South) Korea: [https://www.engadget.com/2013/08/05/samsung-ships-first-3d-v...](https://www.engadget.com/2013/08/05/samsung-ships-first-3d-vertical-nand-flash/)

* USA: Idaho for Micron's 3D Flash. IIRC they've partnered with Intel... which is primarily Israel and USA as far as manufacturing goes.

\---------

Now... name me a Chinese manufacturer of 32-layer (or more) 3D Flash. Toshiba
hit 96-layers IIRC.

Hint: You can't. China doesn't make high-end 3d NAND Flash. At all. Maybe they
will catch-up in a few years, but at the moment, they are not.

~~~
rhino369
I'm not sure I'd call 15nm 2D NAND "low end." But when those Chinese fab lines
were opened, they were cutting edge.

Nearly all the engineering is done somewhere that isn't in China, which was my
point.

~~~
ksec
I am not aware of any 15nm NAND made by any Chinese companies, correct me if I
am wrong.

The parents was right in regards to NAND and Fabs. At least in the next 2 - 4
years time frame. The plan for China, at least up to last year was to bump
tens of billions of tax dollar and incentives, along with billions of
investment from private sector ( Which isn't really private, but lets not go
on with that for now ) to builds Fabs. Since China is now officially the
largest Smartphone and electronics market, they want to source more components
from domestic market rather then relying on foreign companies. In hope to
build an Semi Con Industry that rivals Korea Japan and even US. Hence you see
investment into SMIC, and a lot of people were poached from TSMC, Global F and
Samsung.

In a typical fashion of Chinese Race to the bottom, they could sell the NAND
at BOM cost and gain market shares. I am sceptical whether this works for NAND
or Fabs in general. 3D NAND from other companies should have both quality and
cost / GB advantage.

