
EU's Tusk Says May Expects to Start Brexit Talks by February - virtualwhys
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-16/eu-s-tusk-says-theresa-may-told-him-article-50-likely-triggered-early-next-year
======
mavdi
EU just can't afford to give the UK a good deal since this will start a chain
reaction with other dissatisfied countries. Sadly this will only end up being
a lose/lose situation.

~~~
cperciva
On the other hand, countries which are dissatisfied may work hard to give the
UK as good a deal as possible, knowing that it will set a precedent which
might end up applying to them.

~~~
yongjik
Non-UK politicians dissatisfied with the current state of EU, giving UK a
better deal at the expense of their own country? Sounds rather unlikely...

(Maybe they could sabotage their own negotiation and use that as a talking
point against EU, but that's a risky gamble.)

~~~
cperciva
Yes, I'm talking about sabotaging the negotiations.

------
1ris
Has anybody yet plotted the time when article 50 should be triggered against
the time of the announcement? First it was immediately. Then it after a few
weeks. Then it was after a new PM was found. Then it was later this year. Now
it is early next year.

~~~
krona
Actually, the current prime minister announced that Article 50 wouldn't be
triggered until 2017 (at the earliest) in a Hustings about 2 weeks after the
referendum.

------
celticninja
Part of me wants to be proven wrong on how strong the EU will negotiate but I
understand the reason and need for them to do so and I expect they will. I
hate that it is likely that remain supporters will get to say "I told you so'
in about 2 years time.

~~~
sevenless
If the EU _really_ wanted to hurt the UK they'd declare the following things,
in increasing order of nastiness:

1\. Britain can swap immigrants for retirees. The residency rights of all
Britons in Europe are contingent on residency rights of Europeans in Britain.
If Europeans are made to apply for visas, so will every one of the millions of
Britons in Spain.

2\. Drain the country of talent. Recognizing that millions of British are
being unilaterally stripped of their EU citizenship, create a new category of
general EU citizens, and allow talented British to apply for instant and
permanent residence, conditional on (1) giving up British citizenship and (2)
learning the language of their continental locale within the next five years.

3\. Tell Scotland that it would accept their continuing as a member of the EU
if and only if they applied, as an independent state, while the UK was a
member state of the EU.

4\. Tell the UK that Article 50 is considered to have been invoked as of _now_
, and they have two years to leave.

The last two would be especially funny.

~~~
blibble
since we're into the absurd (3 and 4 are Treaty breaches), here's a
_satirical_ list of how the UK could respond to the above, in increasing order
of nastiness:

1\. The residency rights of all EU citizens in Britain are contingent on
residency rights of Britons in the EU.

2\. Cut corporation tax to 0% and freeze all contributions to the EU budget
with immediate effect

3\. Veto everything possible in the Council until exit, and voting against
where QMV applies

4\. Send half the Royal Navy to the Mediterranean and offer to transport
anyone from Northern Africa to the south of Europe, and use the rest to
exclude EU ships from British waters

of course once you're at 4 you're basically at war, and then maybe May will
press the red button and launch Trident at Brussels

~~~
pmontra
There isn't much left
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Royal_Navy_ship...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Royal_Navy_ships)
especially the surface fleet. Compare with

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_French_Navy_shi...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_French_Navy_ships)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Italian_Navy_sh...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Italian_Navy_ships)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Spanish_Navy_sh...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Spanish_Navy_ships)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_German_Navy_shi...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_German_Navy_ships)

------
pbreit
Still doesn't guarantee an actual Brexit. My guess is when all is said in done
there either is no Brexit or there's a deal that is very close to staying in
the Union with a few adjustments. The vote was critical to obtain a
negotiating position. I don't see it as the end of the world.

~~~
Analemma_
I approve of this plan. Work something out where there's no Brexit, but there
are a couple of token, hot-air actions on immigration to convince the Leave
voters that Something Is Being Done. That's all they ever wanted anyway; if
the options on the referendum had been "Remain", "Leave" and "I don't care, I
just want fewer immigrants", Leave would have lost in a landslide.

~~~
Silhouette
_That 's all they ever wanted anyway_

FYI, that's probably not true. We don't know why people voted the way they
did, on either side. However, some of the more credible polling suggests that
sovereignty was actually the biggest single issue for leave voters (with
immigration second).

------
cimi_
These lose-lose scenarios make me sad. Does anyone else feel that the "we're
paying 4 gold coins but are receiving only 2 platinum bracelets" style
arguments are _extremely_ petty? They come from stable societies in which
people who are willing to put in the effort are well rewarded and live
carefree lives. I don't know if it's just because I'm living right in the
middle of the tech bubble and I am empowered to pursue my interests anywhere,
but I wish people would be taught that they have no right to feel they own a
place just because they were born there. I believe spreading progress is
essential for our peaceful survival and maintaining our way of life. The media
is actively harming this.

~~~
quirkafleeg
> Does anyone else feel that the "we're paying 4 gold coins but are receiving
> only 2 platinum bracelets" style arguments are _extremely_ petty?

Send me four gold coins; I'll give you two platinum bracelets. Deal?

------
danieltillett
I guess this proves that economic suicide does not have to be rushed decision.
The EU is going to make an example of the U.K. When you have interest rates at
zero, a large deficit (both current account and governmental), and a political
system at war with itself, then it might not be the best time to leave.

~~~
walkingolof
Recruiting all the necessary people to negotiate with the EU (and all deals
proxied by EU toward the rest of the world, including the US) do take time,
the EU have handled most of this for the UK the last 40 years or so...

~~~
danieltillett
So even if it was possible in theory to negotiate a decent outcome the UK
won't be able to because they have no one to do the negotiation. Leaving
everything up to Boris to work out does not sound like a plan.

------
binarymax
Well, this explains the 3.2 pence drop of GBP vs USD today.

I'm glad that they are going through with it, even though I voted to stay.
Backing down would have been a big signal to the public that it has no voice.
At least we can say that democracy is still functioning (partially).

~~~
guelo
The thing about referendum democracy is, if they voted again today the result
would probably be different. Why is the public's desire from the past more
binding than the public's desire today? The timing of referendums is a
political game played by the elites to manipulate the results. But you
couldn't run the country if there were periodic votes and the public changed
their minds back and forth repeatedly. Direct democracy doesn't work for long
term planning which is why representative democracy with slow changes in
government is the only way to make a modern democracy work.

~~~
anexprogrammer
A game played by Cameron expecting a coalition government and bugger all
chance of needing to call a referendum. Probably going to hasten Scots
secession too. A game Cameron wasn't very good at.

He now gets the place in history he deserves. Shame everyone outside
Westminster suffers though.

~~~
ptaipale
I don't think you can blame it on just a game by Cameron. There definitely was
a strong movement among the voters that _wanted_ the Brexit referendum to take
place.

You know, in fact so strong that Brexit got a majority of votes.

~~~
anexprogrammer
No? Let's look how we got here.

He boxed himself into a stupid position by betting all on renegotiating UK's
place then bringing home none of the things that mattered _to their party
policies,_ finishing by tellng the country what a great job he'd done. It was
a play to diffuse UKIP and the EU sceptic segment of the party which has been
a varying problem for decades. Certainly since Maastricht almost split the
party. Referendum wasn't necessary, there was no new treaty, no change in our
terms. That's when a referendum may make sense, like fter Lisbon or Maastricht
perhaps.

Wilson gave us the 1975 referendum on the EEC (Britain's first referendum).
That was called because euro sceptics were threatening to split the _Labour_
party. Plus ça change.

The 75 campaign had nearly everyone for remain. Tony Benn and Enoch Powell
were the main proponents of out - for remarkably similar reasons. Thatcher
campaigned hard for remain! All long before anyone aside from Heath and a few
FO wonks knew anything about ever closer union and so on, it's _just_ the
Common Market. As we've learned since, Heath knew full well what he signed up
to.

Post Maastricht when realisation of union hit, UKIP and Tory Euro skeptics
became more visible, and started to lead to some vote fragmentation. Some of
the calls for referendum were actually audible now, and as we went through the
Blair years we learned new government by pager and soundbite. This fed the
rise of LibDems, Greens and UKIP (probably SNP too), as the electorate became
disillusioned with media centric government.

Of course many were attracted to the various policies, but a time of
plummeting turnouts, and politicians no one trusts, it doesn't matter who you
vote for, especially with our electoral system. Remarkably we end up with our
only coalition since the war.

In an age of government by ideology and Overton Windows, even on scientific
and factual matters, the voters wanting a referendum was irrelevant, unless
there's rioting in the streets. They sure as heck didn't _listen._

After Brexit both Johnson and Gove looked ashen. Neither believed they'd win.
They had no clue what next. A depressing amount of Brexit voters seemed to
regret the morning after or just wanted to make an anti-govt protest.

A game good sir. Very badly played as it goes. Just another knee jerk idea so
beloved of Cameron.

No wonder May made Boris Foreign Secretary - "you broke it, you bloody fix
it".

~~~
ptaipale
So it's just a "bad play of game" if a politician allows a referendum about
something where a very large part, likely a majority, of the population
_wants_ a referendum?

This looks to me a bit contemptuous towards the voters.

And I think that contempt, quite visible in the campaign at least in British
media, is precisely what turned the tide in the referendum.

~~~
anexprogrammer
> So it's just a "bad play of game" if a politician allows a referendum

Yes

> very large part, likely a majority, of the population wants a referendum

Not true. Noticable minority

> This looks to me a bit contemptuous towards the voters.

Politics since 1997. Hence the ever growing disconnect.

Tory majority government elected by 22.5% of the electorate - the lowest
figure ever.

Of course it's contemptuous.

~~~
ptaipale
> _Tory majority government elected by 22.5% of the electorate - the lowest
> figure ever._

I don't know how you came up with that number.

Labour won a majority in 2005 with 35.2 % of votes, in an election with 61.4 %
turnout. That's 21.6 % of the electorate.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_electio...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2005)

In 2015, Conservatives got 36.9 % of a 66.4 % turnout. That's 24.5 % of
electorate.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_electio...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015)

------
pbarnes_1
Article 50 will never be triggered.

~~~
hackbinary
It will be invoked ... Mañana ... :)

------
junto
Reminds me that I really need to apply to become a German national, so I can
hopefully remain here without any hassle when this shit storm kicks off.

~~~
ptaipale
I don't see why you should. Germany has lots of foreign people living there,
now even hundreds of thousands who entered illegally in the first place, and
still they won't be sent away. A Brit will have no trouble there (or here, I'm
in another EU country).

~~~
Xylakant
Getting a work permit for a non-EU national is a hassle. We just hired a
canadian and I can tell you, no employer really wants to go through this.
Without a work visa no job (unless your prefer illegal jobs). You might have
some luck being registered in the UK and pretending to work remotely as a
freelancer, but all in all, you'll have a mess at your hands. Air travel will
be risky (might need to show passport, visa), air travel to non-schengen
destinations quite impossible. No proper way of getting insurance coverage.
Don't get stopped by the police, don't have a car accident, no speeding, ...

You certainly can sit tight and never move around - because that's what the
illegals do - but I don't think you really want that.

~~~
ptaipale
We were talking about someone who already lives in Germany and has residence
there. Whatever happens in Brexit negotiations, such people will be able to
continue as if nothing happened. If they move somewhere else and then want to
come back, that will make things more difficult.

If this is not the case, then EU has practically reneged on everything it was
standing for and _I_ want to leave, too.

And even in future there will be Canadians and Brits moving to Germany.

(Believe me I know the work permit bureaucracy in my country (Finland); I've
been a hiring manager for various non-EU nationals).

~~~
Xylakant
> We were talking about someone who already lives in Germany and has residence
> there.

So authorities know he's a british national since you need to register your
primary residence in germany. Unless an agreement is found that allows british
nationals to stay legally, he'll have to apply for a visa. And the EU has
never been standing for "Let all people work without permit", it's always been
a club membership benefit. I can see that an agreement could be fund, but I
also see that the British government and a large chunk of the leave voters
seem hell-bent at kicking out EU nationals. That will make finding an
agreement much much harder. Poland will want that as a bargain chip, they do
have a significant population in the UK and they do sit at the table.

> And even in future there will be Canadians and Brits moving to Germany.

Certainly - it's just going to be much harder and thus much less.

~~~
ptaipale
Brits won't be kicking out any Polish plumbers, either. They're people who do
work and make business and it will be generally recognized a useful practise
to allow them to stay.

Currently, EU citizens don't need a _work or residence permit_ , but if you
actually get a job and stay longer than that, you will still need to _register
your right of residence_. It's not really _that_ different. And believe me,
existing rights of residence will not be forfeited in case of Brexit.

Shall we make a bet? I'll offer a pint if I'm wrong.

~~~
flubert
>I'll offer a pint if I'm wrong.

Don't you mean 569 mL? Oh, wait, that is more subtle than at first glance...

~~~
ptaipale
I was thinking that because we talk about EU on an American forum, it'll have
to be 551 ml.

Well, never mind, the health nazis will have got us by the time Brexit is
clear, and the beer will be non-alcoholic.

------
hackbinary
Reporter/EU Official: When will you trigger Article 50 already?

UK Government: Mañana

Reporter/EU Official: ¿En Español?

UK Government: Sí, en Español.

Reportero / Oficial de la UE: ¿Cuándo va a desencadenar el artículo 50 ya?

UK Government: Mañana.

Reportero / Oficial de la UE: ¿Mañana?

UK Government: Sí, Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnyaaaaaannnnnnnnnnnaaaaaaaaa.

Reportero / Oficial de la UE: Ah, sí. Mañana.

~~~
hackbinary
Does no one have a sense of humour?

~~~
abz10
Manyana means tomorrow. But often tomorrow never comes, especially in the more
laid back Latin American cultures, so it also means probably never. You have
to know Spanish and have exposure to the culture to get the 'joke'

~~~
hackbinary
Yes, this. Is the government going to just keep delaying it?

Spain is a major part of the EU.

There are also a great many British Ex-pats in who retire in Spain, not to
mention that Spain is a favourite holiday spot.

~~~
pjc50
A constant feature of the past few decades is people commenting on the Mail
that the UK is overrun with immigrants and therefore they've moved to Spain.
The cognitive dissonance is strong with them.

~~~
abz10
It's fair to bemoan the general decline of your society with the desire to
better your personal lot through immigrating. It's likely that they don't
dislike foreigners but they do dislike being forced to subsidise them via
taxes. It's a side effect of the welfare state.

Milton Friedmen convers it pretty well in
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eyJIbSgdSE](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eyJIbSgdSE).
It's an old problem :/

