

Ask HN: Thinking of leaving my startup - throwaway_alt

The situation: I'm currently working for a startup, $startup, in which I have a small, but nontrivial amount of stock (~ 1%, of which 40% is vested). I work for their Indian subsidiary, but have been wanting to move to California for a while now. I have recently got a pretty good offer from a large company, $co, in the Bay Area.<p>The dilemma:
- $co is somewhere I've always wanted to work at. I know that I will definitely enjoy both the work and the environment a lot more than I do in my current position.<p>- When $startup heard I was leaving, they offered to move me to their California office immediately, match and exceed $co's offer. This in and of itself would not get me to stay (they've been underpaying me and dragging their feet over my transfer, and the work environment is pretty bad), but<p>- The founder is doing his best to convince me that we have a significant probability of being acquired within the next 12 months, at which point having walked away from my unvested stock will prove to be a huge mistake, essentially throwing away my last 5 years of 60+ hour weeks. Particularly since I vest fully on acquisition, I could in theory stay the year at no real financial loss, and then go look for another job whatever happens.<p>I'm particularly interested in hearing from people who've been in a similar situation (though all advice is of course welcome). On the one hand, if I turn $co down, I might or might not ever get an offer from them again. In terms of my long-term career goals, they're definitely somewhere I'd love to work at. On the other hand, if we really are within a year of being acquired (and this is not a combination of optimism and salesmanship), the stock value represents more money than I'd make in the next decade. On the gripping hand, this is castles in the air, weighed against what is essentially a dream job.<p>So, thoughts? Advice? War stories?
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kovar
There are a lot of cliches which I think apply to your problem - "live for the
moment" and "a bird in the hand ..." come to mind immediately.

Stock options are great leverage for the company and worthless to the employee
in cases such as yours.

If you want to be in California and working for $co will make you happy, take
it. Once you're here you can always find another $startup.

~~~
throwaway_alt
yeah, very true. coming to the conclusion that a dream job is worth more than
the potential millions to me.

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tgrass
What is the least salary you would take to work at $co and for how long would
you work there at that salary?

What probability do you put on $startup being acquired?

What is the least salary $startup could pay you to be satisfied with working
there without the prospect of an acquisition?

~~~
throwaway_alt
that's the rub - i'd be perfectly happy working at $co for what they've
offered me, and getting a regular annual raise, and i wouldn't stay at
$startup at all, without the prospect of an acquisition, even though they're
(now) offering me a good bit more than $co.

the probability of being acquired is essentially the carrot, and the founder
talks as though it's practically a certainty, but he's the overoptimistic
sort. the problem is that i pretty much have no insight into the
business/financial aspect of things, and therefore have no real way of judging
the probabilities myself.

i'm actually not very motivated by money, but when the numbers get high enough
they have a way of distorting reality around them.

~~~
tgrass
We may not be motivated by money, but we all have our price. Would you happily
stay at $startup for $200K a year with a 0% chance of acquisition? How about
$100K with a 50% chance of acquisition?

Put some numbers to it and you might find you already know the answer.

~~~
tgrass
n= the number of years you'd work at $co

$requiredCoSalary = the least amount per year you'd need to work at $co
(negative if you'd pay to work there)

$offeredCoSalary = their offer

$requiredStartupSalary = the amount they'd have to pay to keep you if there
was no acquisition on the table

$offeredStartupSalary = ...

E(ROI)=probability of acquisition times the $ of acquisition

If [n _($offeredCoSalary-$requiredCoSalary)]-[n_
($requiredStartupSalary-$offeredStartupSalary)]>E(ROI) then take the $co job.

(Sorry for formatting - typed on phone)

~~~
throwaway_alt
interesting way to look at it - forces me to make a realistic estimate of
E(ROI)

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throwaway_alt
__followup __: i've decided to accept the offer from $co and move on with my
life. feeling a lot happier now that i've made the decision!

~~~
tgrass
Best of luck.

~~~
throwaway_alt
thanks :)

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rdouble
The big question is why are you only 40% vested after 5 years? You should have
been fully vested a year ago.

~~~
throwaway_alt
i was, we had to revest all founder's stock as a condition of the latest round
of investment

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iamdave
Would you rather have money, or be happy?

~~~
throwaway_alt
in the long term, definitely be happy. the dilemma is if i wait a year, i
could potentially have money _and_ be happy.

~~~
iamdave
You don't sound _miserable_ where you are, but if you have your sights and
long-term personal and professional goals set elsewhere, why delay the
opportunity and risk being in a place you want to be for a few more bucks?

There's always going to be more money.

There isn't always going to be the perfect job on a silver platter.

~~~
throwaway_alt
yeah, that pretty much sums up my emotional response to the whole situation.
i'm trying not to be too impulsive about this because of the sheer amounts
involved (though as a friend of mine puts it, i've multiplied a real number by
an imaginary one and am dazzled by the result)

