

Why Conan O'Brien Should Jump to the Internet - raganwald
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jim-louderback/why-conan-obrien-should-j_b_427527.html

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nir
One reason for Conan (and anyone with similar status) _not_ to switch to the
internet is that on mainstream media competition has a high entry barrier -
very few people get a show on NBC, or a column in the NY Times - while online
a PR piece by Revision3 can get published on a major news website like any
other content.

If you're a newcomer who wants to compete with Conan O'Brien, the web can be a
good starting point. If you _are_ Conan O'Brien, the web is suicide.

~~~
dasil003
I'd say that's just the tip of the iceberg. Money and production values are
just way more abundant on a television network. Even though talk show budgets
are a drop in the bucket compared to scripted dramas, it's an astronomical
cost for Internet publishers who can't bring in any advertising dollars.

The only way it makes sense for Conan to move his show to the Internet is by
starting his own business and making a real go of it. Figure out a real
business model, and yes, salaries would have to take a hit, but he could
conceivably create something amazing and future-proof rather than riding the
(slowly) sinking ship that is traditional network television. Signing on to
try to help someone else's startup would be insane; nothing more than an act
of charity. However there is an opportunity, however slim, for Conan to go big
on the Internet and prove that he is still innovative and do something that's
never been done before.

~~~
raganwald
_The only way it makes sense for Conan to move his show to the Internet is by
starting his own business and making a real go of it._

Some years ago I recall reading a list of top entertainment money makers. The
top two women that year were Madonna and Oprah. The interesting thing was that
while Madonna grossed more revenue overall, Oprah made more money because
Oprah owns all of her own businesses and almost everyone is an employee.
Madonna, by contrast, did business with people who took a portion of the
proceeds.

This is not to say that Madonna was doing the wrong thing. It allowed her to
focus on her 'core competence.' Perhaps business is Oprah's core competence,
so each might have been doing the right thing for themselves.

I would say that Conan could make a lot more "running his own show" on TV or
the Internet, but only if he has a talent for it.

~~~
dasil003
Sure, but there's not enough money in Internet programming right now for
Conan's cut to be worth it. Hell there's not enough money probably to operate
the show even if Conan takes $0.

Madonna was popularized using a very well established formula that had been
honed by record companies over the previous half-century.

My point is, that at this stage in the game, Conan _could_ innovate, but only
if he can take a controlling interest. If he wants or needs someone else to be
the strategic party then it's too soon. He'll need to wait 5 or 10 years for
Internet programming to come into its own as an industry at which point he can
be just one more chunk of content (sort of like he was for NBC).

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walkon
_I'm confident that an internet version of The Conan O'Brien show will be
funnier, edgier, more credible and more innovative. And that will translate
into more profits - both for Conan and for Revision3_

It seems possible it could be more innovative and funny if it was internet
based, but I am highly skeptical of this translating to more profit for Conan.
How much is Conan worth to the big networks for a year of shows? 15 million?
Where's Revision3 going to get that kind of money?

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ryandvm
Internet TV will be a viable platform when more than 15% of households have a
TV with an actual Internet connection. I have no interest in seeing Conan do a
face plant for the sake of being Revision3's IPTV pioneer.

~~~
steveklabnik
I'm admittedly in the "young kid just out of college" demographic, but I'm not
sure I know anyone who doesn't just use their TV as a big monitor, or has an
AppleTV with Boxee, or doesn't own a TV and watches Hulu on their laptop.

And isn't this Conan's core fanbase anyway?

I'm not saying it wouldn't be a risky move, but history rewards the bold.

~~~
mbreese
You are in a very small minority. I think the better question is: do your
parents? I'm ten years out of college, and while I am able to connect my
computer to my TV to watch Hulu, etc, it isn't a permanent setup. I have the
cables in place to just plug things in, but only on the TV in my living room.
My bedroom TV is capable, but I don't have the cables in place.

Conan has a pretty broad fan base. He's been doing this for years. So, unless
you can sell me on the fact that 85% of his target audience has this type of
setup, it's a bad idea.

Not only that, but the setup has to be permanent and drop-dead simple. So,
unless you are a 100% Hulu kinda person, we're talking about a dedicated
device attached to the TV that could tune in his show from a remote control.
Access to the show would have to be as ubiquitous as a traditional TV. This is
the only way to keep the numbers in the range that advertisers would demand.

~~~
steveklabnik
My parents don't have cable. My dad watches Steeler games, my mom watches
Dancing with the Stars, and they occasionally watch the morning news. That's
it. The friends I speak of range from 18-35.

> Not only that, but the setup has to be permanent and drop-dead simple.

I'm not sure what's hard about Boxee, Netflix over the XBox, or even just
having a computer hooked up to a television in general. It's not like there's
a difference between them now, other than size.

~~~
dasil003
_I'm not sure what's hard about Boxee, Netflix over the XBox, or even just
having a computer hooked up to a television in general. It's not like there's
a difference between them now, other than size._

Definitely agree about Boxee and Netflix. They are designed around providing a
simple user experience, and all the consumer needs is familiarity.

Plugging in a computer is another matter though. There's a mental barrier
there that people will just never overcome. Computers are complicated, and
people use them for other things (okay maybe only web surfing and email). They
don't want to plug it in and start a program, no matter how simple it is. Even
if the program was henceforth telepathic and let you watch any content
instantaneously in HD it would be a hard sell.

Dedicated boxes are the way this will go.

~~~
steveklabnik
> Plugging in a computer is another matter though. There's a mental barrier
> there that people will just never overcome.

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. Of course, there'll always be
Luddites, but even my non-technical friends do stuff like this.

