
How the world’s oceans could be running out of fish - dustywusty
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20120920-are-we-running-out-of-fish
======
cletus
(For God's sake can we skip the predictable Betteridge's Law Wikipedia
reference?)

This seems to happen a lot and not just in the ocean. Population dynamics are
complex. Things often seem inexhaustible until they're not and that changes
has a nasty habit of happening almost overnight. Look at the Passenger Pigeon,
the Alaskan King Crab, bison, various whale species (some may never recover
from the whaling industry), cod, etc.

I think this is exacerbated by it being hard to tell what exactly is in the
ocean. With land animals it _tends_ to be somewhat more obvious.

Some governmental oddities haven't helped here. Britain really screwed up in
how it joined the EU (then the EEC) in the 1970s with the CFP (Common
Fisheries Policy) [1], which is (now) a textbook case of the tragedy of the
commons.

Norway didn't join. And they're swimming in oil wealth. Not that I think oil
fields would've become a common resource (the North Sea oil fields aren't
AFAIK).

And then there's the insatiable appetite of the Japanese for bluefin tuna that
will probably drive the fish to extinction in a matter of decades at most.

IMHO all of these resource problems stem from the fact that there are simply
too many of us and we're unable to live within our means.

[1]: <http://www.global-vision.net/facts/fact9_3.asp>

~~~
dfc
I am pretty sure that you do not need to worry about Betteridge's Law coming
up. The headline is not a question and after reading the article I do not know
how you could restate it as a question with the answer being "No."

Did you read the article?

~~~
doublec
The submission title was originally a question, it's been changed since the
comment you are replying to was posted.

~~~
dfc
Was the answer no?

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tokenadult
Article title as I see the article by following the URL kindly submitted here:
"How the world’s oceans could be running out of fish." So I see from the URL
that there must be an alternate title for this article, which the submitter
used (as is quite fair to do). This is an example of an article title that
asks a yes/no question for which the answer is yes.

"Entire species of marine life will never be seen in the Anthropocene (the Age
of Man), let alone tasted, if we do not curb our insatiable voracity for fish.
Last year, global fish consumption hit a record high of 17 kg (37 pounds) per
person per year, even though global fish stocks have continued to decline. On
average, people eat four times as much fish now than they did in 1950."

This news report is consistent with many other studies I have seen of this
issue since the 1980s. The Grand Banks cod fishery

<http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/grandbanks.htm>

which seemed inexhaustible as recently as my own young adulthood, has
collapsed. Many species of ocean-going fish have largely disappeared from the
human diet in many countries, not because people no longer like those
varieties of fish, but because those varieties of fish are no longer readily
available.

~~~
dustywusty
Weird, when I originally submitted, the actual title reflected the title in
the URL. Guess the BBC changed it at some point, as someone has for this post
too.

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ChuckMcM
This is an interesting thing. Fish are over fished, stocks decline, the price
goes up, fishing companies go out of business. The response has been
sustainably farmed fish, that market is up hugely of course (its worth
investing in if you are a futurist) There are also indications that changes in
the ocean temperature and acidity are moving fish populations around such that
a 'fishery collapse' might also be 'they went somewhere else'.

The last few years the salmon season was halted in California. Between low
water for spawning and lots of fishing the catches were going down and few
fish were returning to spawn. Now they have recovered somewhat and California
is getting a better idea of what the population can support. Meanwhile it gets
very expensive to eat fish.

Its for this reason I doubt that fish stocks will go completely extinct.
Unlike land stocks where it 'cost' zero to wait for game to go by, fish
require that you be in a boat to go get them. That costs money. If the return
becomes so uncertain that you don't know if you will make or lose money on the
outing, rational actors will stop playing.

Most of the mass extinction / exhaustion theories I've read are based on
predicting a systemic collapse rather than the last fish of a particular type
is removed manually. What is not clear is whether or not these systemic
collapses actually occur. Localized food chains have some great examples (like
coral reefs dying due to trawling and then losing the entire ecosystem sort of
like the rain forest becoming farmland) but the deep sea stocks are much more
difficult to kill off in that way.

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justanother
Rare breed here, non-mil, non-gov, non-local computer programmer in the
Florida Keys. Fish stocks are declining so noticeably year after year after
year. You will not be able to mark-off coordinates as a fish refuge without
local multi-generational fishermen families (with more political clout than
you can imagine here in not-quite-Florida) complaining and getting their way.
It's quite a lost cause. And I won't purchase farm-raised fish, because I'm
well aware of the PCB content of your Tilapia. I wish I knew what to tell you,
except that your children won't know anything about Tuna, Ahi, or Hogfish.

~~~
dfc
_"your children won't know anything about Tuna, Ahi, or Hogfish"_

Ahi ⊆ Tuna : Ahi is a kind of Tuna

~~~
sliverstorm
You shouldn't be surprised by the confusion. I sometimes suspect it is
intentional on the part of restaurants; "ahi" sounds a lot classier than
"tuna", because it doesn't make you think of canned tuna.

~~~
dfc
I understand your point. But when someone starts out their sentence with "I
wish I knew what to tell you" you would like to think that they knew that Ahi,
AKA yellowfin or bigeye tuna, was two species of tuna.

EDIT: subspecies -> two species

~~~
sliverstorm
I hate myself for this, but- correction- Ahi is not a subspecies. It refers to
yellowfin OR bigeye.

~~~
dfc
Don't hate yourself for teaching me something new;) thanks for the
clarification. I always thought Ahi was just yellowfin.

------
adrianwaj
There's a documentary on this issue here <https://vimeo.com/23540198> with one
blogger saying:

"More than 80% of the fish has disappeared from your oceans. Your children,
when they are your age, will not be able to see wild fish. The oceans will be
completely empty in 30 years. Unless..... YOU stop eating fish now AND please
vote for political parties that will stop subsidizing the fishing industry."
[http://www.thebestofrawfood.com/Raw-Food-blog.html#Stop-
Eati...](http://www.thebestofrawfood.com/Raw-Food-blog.html#Stop-Eating-Fish
---Please)

Myself, I personally would just ban fish farms globally. They are polluting,
don't provide healthy fish for consumption and require smaller wild caught
fish to maintain.

I might add: I'd also place a ban on all Concentrated Animal Feeding
Operations as unhealthy, cruel, environmentally unfriendly (requiring cleared
land growing GMOs for feeds) and perhaps unnecessary. Although, some are
better than others such as those that feed sprouted grasses rather than
grains.

Animals should live in their natural habitats. First and foremost we should
adapt to them and serve them, not them to us. Domestication can only go so
far, and ironically as we overly domesticate animals, so we ourselves become
domesticated and consumed without even knowing it.

~~~
sliverstorm
Fish farms probably need improvement, but among our options for farmed protein
sources, fish are one of the best. Generally very healthy, and they have a
good conversion factor.

Also, good luck banning them _globally_. We don't have a world government just
yet.

Lastly, refusing to eat any fish seems somewhat silly, unless you are willing
to give up meat entirely. Our various other farmed meat sources really aren't
that much better, and there are responsible fish options available. Just do
some research.

~~~
adrianwaj
Heavy metal toxicity in seafood from larger fish is a worry, even if the ocean
was bursting with fish of all species all of a sudden. I haven't found farmed
fish as yet up to my standards, just look at the colour of farmed salmon, and
it doesn't make me feel too good after consuming. The best fish I have access
to presently are sardines in glass from Spain.

World government worries me as it would threaten Israel (let alone everything
else it deems bad) because it would become a scapegoat and distraction from
its own evils. So I just ban certain fish in my own mind.

~~~
sliverstorm
So work towards improving farmed fish, either with your votes or with your
dollars. Don't just jump ship and tell everyone they should bail with you.

~~~
adrianwaj
I am jumping ship on this item. In total I am down 3 mod points (and
counting!). Moving onto greener, more biodynamic pastures!

~~~
sliverstorm
_... biodynamic pastures ..._

Come again?

 _Biodynamics is a spiritual-ethical-ecological approach to agriculture, food
production and nutrition._

... oh boy.

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zxcdw
Yet another motivation to promote and consider downshifting, degrowth and
veganism.

~~~
sliverstorm
I'm sorry, why veganism? You could make an argument for vegetarianism here.
Shooting for veganism, on the other hand, just sounds like an agenda. I'm not
really aware of non-food animal products we get from fish.

~~~
dfc
I think fish oil (or shark oil specifically) is used in cosmetics. Nantucket
would not have gotten started without non-food uses of whales.

------
Lockyy
Baffling how there actually exists a section of the BBC website that UK
citizens don't have access to.

Don't bother if you are from the UK...

~~~
nfriedly
Here's a working link via a prgmr.com server (California, USA):
[http://nfriedly.com/px/poxy/index.php?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc...](http://nfriedly.com/px/poxy/index.php?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Ffuture%2Fstory%2F20120920-are-
we-running-out-of-fish&hl=61)

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WalterBright
I've often thought that the US should set up "national parks" in some coastal
waters, where no fishing of any sort would be allowed, and no motorized boats.

These would then serve as "reservoirs" of marine life.

~~~
rogerbinns
I live on the land next to one:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monterey_Bay_National_Marine_Sa...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monterey_Bay_National_Marine_Sanctuary)

While the prohibitions aren't as clear cut as what you said, they are
definitely in that spirit
<http://montereybay.noaa.gov/intro/mp/regs.html#prohibitions>

~~~
WalterBright
I didn't know this existed. Thanks for letting me know. It's a great start!

------
jonah
As a counter point, management of US fisheries seems to be finding a good
balance:

 _U.S. seafood catch at 17-year high_

"Last year's increase, up 23% by weight over 2010 levels, is evidence that
fish populations are rebuilding. Still, a number of fisheries remain in
trouble."

[http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-
seafood-20120920,0,261...](http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-
seafood-20120920,0,2618910.story)

~~~
btilly
Canada thought it was finding a good balance with increasing fish caught while
the Grand Banks fishery was collapsing.

Then they discovered that improvements in technology were letting them more
efficiently catch the few remaining fish, and there were suddenly no more fish
left.

Therefore an increase in fish being caught is not necessarily evidence that
populations are being managed sustainably. It could merely be evidence that
they are being managed less carefully. (Good for now, worse in the long run.)

------
jakeonthemove
Well, this is the perfect time to introduce sea farming - famers seasteading
and growing fish (and other seafood) on the open ocean (on their own lots of
water). I always found the idea pretty interesting...

------
ams6110
Almost all the fish I buy is farm-raised. I trust it more than wild-caught for
some reason; I don't want to be eating anything caught off the coast of
Fukushima for example.

~~~
rogerbinns
The Monterey Bay Aquarium has an excellent guide to sustainable fish, web
searchable, printable and as Android and iOS apps. They also distinguish
between farmed, wild caught and if appropriate method of catch:

<http://www.montereybayaquarium.org/cr/seafoodwatch.Aspx>

Just because fish is farmed doesn't make it healthy. A high density pen will
have high concentrations of everything.

