
Nike and Boeing Are Paying Sci-Fi Writers to Predict Their Futures - bookofjoe
https://onezero.medium.com/nike-and-boeing-are-paying-sci-fi-writers-to-predict-their-futures-fdc4b6165fa4
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joe_the_user
Other posters have noted that this isn't new at all. One could almost say that
what's been predicted by futurologists over time is what Sci-Fi can see.

To me, what's interesting is the ways the lens of Sci-Fi can distort one's
ideas. The flying car is the most classic, wrong science fiction prediction
ever (even if it should come to pass). The way that the flying car fails is
that ground motion doesn't translate directly into flying motion - flying
transport has achieved some equivalence to ground motion but going from a
"flying bus" (a conventional airplane) to a personal "flying car" turns out to
be a vastly harder problem than going from a train to a car.

One might say, Sci-Fi involves extrapolation of experience, since the writer
ultimately has describe the experiences of their characters. So what's missing
overall, is "the dull parts", as least for "classic Sci-Fi", which has
historically been adventure novels extrapolated into a new world (the novels
of Robert Heinlein being the model).

Here, in a sense, dystopian and other novelist genres can give further insight
a leg-up because they aren't constrained to make the future fun.

A really interesting story is EM Forrester's story "The Machine Stops",
predicted many aspects of the Internet in 1909!

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Machine_Stops](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Machine_Stops)

~~~
nostrademons
One of the most incongruous anachronisms I've read in sci-fi was in Asimov's
_Second Foundation_ , Arkady Darrell is introduced writing in a diary with a
device that (IIRC) telepathically reads your mind and converts it to text. She
starts daydreaming, and as a result her daydreams are transcribed into the
diary. Then she has to _start the entry over_ again because it's ruined.

It's ironic that 50,000 years in the future, when humanity is spread across
the Galactic Empire, the future course of history can be predicted based on
human psychology, and devices can mind-read to text, that they still hadn't
invented word processing. As a kid reading it in the 90s, it was amazing that
the main character would be seriously peeved off by something that was a
solved problem to me.

~~~
lazyant
In the Foundation series, at least the first books, people were smoking, using
newspapers (as in physical paper) and coins; there are many things out of
place in that universe.

~~~
nostrademons
As a teenager reading it in the mid-90s, I didn't find any of those all that
incongruous. Back then there were still smoking sections in most fancy
restaurants; I read the (physical paper) newspaper every morning; and my
parents would frequently dig for loose change in their pocket at the
supermarket cashier.

Shows how far we've come in just ~25 years.

~~~
rkuykendall-com
Yeah, now everybody smokes out of a USB stick.

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e12e
I wonder how solicited sci-fi stacks up to unsolicited sci-fi, like:

"The Revolution, Brought to You by Nike" by Andrea Phillips:
[https://firesidefiction.com/the-revolution-brought-to-you-
by...](https://firesidefiction.com/the-revolution-brought-to-you-by-nike)

~~~
ggggtez
I assume the writing quality would be the same. But it's not necessarily going
to be output in the same type of format.

For example, game designers are known to have been hired by government
agencies and corporations to create games that will help them understand side
effects of policy proposals (especially complicated ones). But you probably
wouldn't just box it up and sell it afterword.

In the sci-fi case, they need to try to predict something like "If we invented
an AI powered shoe, how would people react?" etc. If the writer is any good,
they'll ask for info about the brand's values etc, and the brand would supply
user surveys to help the writer predict better.

~~~
awhitty
Do you have an article in mind about the game designers hired for policy
proposals? I’m curious to learn more about the practice.

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ordinaryradical
I've noticed these stories on The Verge and all I can think is that this is
the most cyberpunk twist of all: the very texts that might inspire a cultural
shift against these entities are instead repurposed and weaponized by capital
to support their continued reign.

~~~
drb91
For more along this train of thought, I recommend "Capitalist Realism: Is
There No Alternative?" by Mark Fisher:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitalist_Realism:_Is_There_N...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitalist_Realism:_Is_There_No_Alternative%3F)

I also highly, highly recommend "K-Punk" by the same author (now deceased,
RIP): [https://www.newyorker.com/books/page-turner/mark-fishers-
k-p...](https://www.newyorker.com/books/page-turner/mark-fishers-k-punk-and-
the-futures-that-have-never-arrived)

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HNLurker2
R.I.P Mark Fisher. I am still shocked to see people die like that out of no
where. (Presumably suicide)

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Razengan
They should check anime and games.

Like Dennou Coil [0] with a nice vision of what life might be like when AR
glasses and a persistent global "AR space" are as commonplace as smartphones
today.

Numenera [1] that's set a billion (!) years in the future where science is
beyond even our wildest imagining of magic.

And many more. They may not be relevant to Nike or Boeing specifically, but
there are lots of really cool ideas for all kinds of fashion _and_ tech.

[0]
[https://myanimelist.net/anime/2164/Dennou_Coil](https://myanimelist.net/anime/2164/Dennou_Coil)

[1] [https://numenera.com](https://numenera.com)

~~~
needle0
Dennou Coil definitely deserves more attention. Way more down to earth than
Ghost in the Shell.

~~~
Razengan
Even Adventure Time is pretty cool with futuristic fashiontech/techfashion.

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cstross
This is nothing new.

I know a number of other SF writers who are professional futurists, with
selling books as their side hustle; others who do consulting gigs for industry
from time to time. In general, corporations pay more than publishers …!

~~~
jpm_sd
A certain amount of cross-pollination is not unknown, either:
[https://www.popularmechanics.com/culture/a21238129/seveneves...](https://www.popularmechanics.com/culture/a21238129/seveneves-
neal-stephenson-blue-origin/)

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andrewl
In the novel _Footfall_ by Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle, the government
employs science fiction writers to help them understand the invading aliens
and predict what they'll think and do.

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kevinmchugh
The US Government convened Hollywood action film writers and producers to
speculate on terrorist attacks they hadn't foreseen:

[https://www.foxnews.com/story/army-looks-to-hollywood-for-
sc...](https://www.foxnews.com/story/army-looks-to-hollywood-for-scenarios)

[https://www.wired.com/2007/03/foiled-by-
foia-/](https://www.wired.com/2007/03/foiled-by-foia-/)

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whatshisface
That gives a new meaning to "security theater."

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wintorez
Perhaps shoes that don't explode and planes that don't nose dive?

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chilukrn
Exactly. May be have good documentation, engineering practices and don't
oversell a new model claiming "works exactly like the earlier model"?

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rhacker
Lol, I actually want shoes that don't have a manual, tbh.

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chilukrn
Ok, my comment was in the context of airplane control systems/sensors/UIs, but
yeah, more generally, things should fail softly

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bpiche
Sounds kinda like this strategic forecasting group cofounded by Steward Brand,
GBN had many awesome sci fi and cyberpunk authors in its retinue until 2013,
both Gibson and Sterling if I recall but it's all described in the book The
Art of the Long View
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Business_Network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Business_Network)

~~~
willshepherdson
I thought the exact same thing reading this -- this sort of science fiction
prototyping reminds me of the kind of Scenario Planning practiced initially by
Royal Dutch Shell, GE, and various militaries. GBN had a big business doing
futures work for Fortune 100 companies for quite some time. This kind of
engagement is pretty high-end business strategy work, but can be very
compelling to a leadership team or a board that is working on long-term
planning.

Clearly articulated potential futures can help large companies identify
signals that a particular future is coming to pass or plan responses should
that scenario become true.

In a world where technology seems to be "disrupting" almost every industry, it
makes sense to me that science fiction futures would be especially relevant.

~~~
bpiche
Yeah, it's hard to sell this to anyone except c-levels with the most
discretionary of budgets, but it's very important work. FWIW it's nice to find
someone else who's heard of this.

A few years ago Bruce Sterling was calling his sort of sci fi inspired
strategic forecasting 'diagetic prototyping', or 'design fiction'. Less
defense- or tech- oriented than film and product development. But it works in
a similar way. We hire the oracles to inhale the vapors and tell us what they
see.

[https://www.wired.com/2011/02/design-fiction-diegetic-
protot...](https://www.wired.com/2011/02/design-fiction-diegetic-prototypes/)

edit: I did work for monitor for a short time and my views don't necessarily
reflect those of the organization

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needle0
One of the issues I see with looking at science fiction for inspiration is
that they are stories first, predictions second - they seem to gravitate
towards ideas that make dramaturgical sense. Future technological or societal
developments that would not make for interesting or relatable stories tend to
get much less attention than those that do, regardless of how likely they are
to actually happen.

For instance, character death still seems to be treated as a huge deal in a
large number of popular science fiction franchises due to their usefulness as
a storytelling device; despite their worlds being vastly technologically
advanced than ours, death carries the same finality and graveness. Worlds
where death has been engineered down to a mere inconvenience aren't unheard
of, but seem to be pretty uncommon outside of very "hard" Sci-Fi. On the other
hand, "robots" and "AIs" that think and talk at a level indistinguishable from
humans (but the rest of the world being disproportionately un-advanced) seem
to be all-too-common in popular franchises, again due to how handy they come
in when telling stories.

I understand it's difficult to write relatable stories with a setting that
aren't necessarily friendly with good storytelling, but we should at least be
aware of the bias.

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armitron
“capitalism incarnates hyperstitional dynamics at an unprecedented and
unsurpassable level of intensity, turning mundane economic ‘speculation’ into
an effective world-historical force”

"Hyperstition is a positive feedback circuit including culture as a component.
It can be defined as the experimental (techno-)science of self-fulfilling
prophecies. Superstitions are merely false beliefs, but hyperstitions – by
their very existence as ideas – function causally to bring about their own
reality. Capitalist economics is extremely sensitive to hyperstition, where
confidence acts as an effective tonic, and inversely. The (fictional) idea of
Cyberspace contributed to the influx of investment that rapidly converted it
into a technosocial reality"

[http://merliquify.com/blog/articles/hyperstition-an-
introduc...](http://merliquify.com/blog/articles/hyperstition-an-
introduction/)

~~~
trophycase
Not sure about that whole link but I find the idea very interesting. I often
wonder how much of these things are self fulfilling prophecy since these large
corps don't exactly have a large imagination and take from where they can.

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lsh
it's called a long term roadmap:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_roadmap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_roadmap)

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fourbits
Reminds me of the precogs in The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch

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klyrs
... not just their training materials?

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OrgNet
if they like the predictions, they will make them come true...

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reneberlin
Full circle.

