
Ask HN: What would you put as the last parameter of this AI equation, and why? - natch
AI equation (inspired by the Drake equation, https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Drake_equation):<p>10^22 estimated number of stars in our universe<p>10^20 estimated number of stars having planets<p>10^18 estimated number of star systems with planets having at least one planet in the habitable zone<p>10^16 estimated number of planets in habitable zones having life<p>10^14 estimated number of these planets having multi-celled life<p>10^12 estimated number of planets having evolved a life form analogous to the abilities of early pre-language primates<p>10^10 estimated number of those planets with life forms that use tools and language to a level analogous to early humans<p>10^8 estimated number of those planets with modern societies and technological capabilities analogous to late 20th-Century humans<p>10^6 number of those planets hosting civilizations that develop AI<p>10^?? number of those planets that developed AI, where the AI experiment went well both for the AIs and also for the civilizations that created the AIs.<p>All the other steps are using (for purposes of discussion, but it seems like a reasonable very rough estimate in aggregate) a factor of 100 at each step. Note there is no source for this factor, it is just a seat-of-the-pants estimate. Yes, I pulled it from there.<p>What factor do you think should be used in the last step, and why?<p>Or maybe you might think it&#x27;s a flawed question: the &quot;experiment&quot; (for lack of a better word) may go badly for the creators, but may end up creating a fantastic and worthwhile&#x2F;meaningful (not just paperclips all around) world for the AIs. Yes there&#x27;s room for quibbling over &quot;meaningful&quot; but let&#x27;s go with an admittedly unfounded assumption that human standards would be a decent starting point for judging what is meaningful and what is not... given that, again what should the estimated factor be for the last step, and why?
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PaulHoule
Also (as seen from 4,000,000 ly away) is there necessarily a difference
between a civilization and the technological artifacts of the civilization?
Could it be that some members of a civilization would be happy with a change
and other ones not?

