

Math Can Predict Insurgent Attacks, Physicist Says - docgnome
http://www.npr.org/2011/07/31/138639711/math-can-predict-insurgent-attacks-physicist-says

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gus_massa
This kind of models can't _predict_ when the attack will happened. They are
only useful to _estimate_ the frequency of the attacks. (I din't check the
original paper, so perhaps the model is not even good for that.)

For example, it is possible to predict the eclipses with a very high precision
(the exact day, hour, ...), years before it happens.

But it is impossible to predict when or where will be the hurricanes of the
next month. It is possible to get an estimation of the number of the
hurricanes in a region, but impossible to get the exact number or dates.

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hendzen
I was initially concerned that the release of the model would diminish its
efficacy but it seems the authors have already taken this possibility into
consideration.

From the conclusion of the actual paper:

"One might argue that analyses of this kind are useless once publicly known,
because they can be invalidated by insurgents’ free will. However, we believe
this will not happen for the same reason that all commuters know that a
traffic jam will appear every day at rush hour on a certain route, yet many
still end up joining it. External constraints of working hours, school
schedules, and finite numbers of direct roads mean that such predictability is
hard to avoid. Similarly, the spontaneity of fatal attacks by an insurgency is
probably constrained by many factors, including the availability of troop
convoys, explosive materials, and sympathy within the local population."

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tybris
Ancient literature can predict floods, lumberjack says.

My point is, I'm skeptical of a physicists' insight into the psychology of
insurgents that would give this model any legitimacy in terms of making
accurate future predictions, rather than just modeling past data. The former
requires a lot more faith.

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ecounysis
This model predicts when an insurgent attack may occur. I wonder if there is
anything similar that could be used to predict where with enough precision to
be useful.

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docgnome
Sort of reminds me of Asimov's Psycohistory

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rjd
Except Asimov himself saw issues with it as the story progressed and created
the Mule and Daneel to explore obviously flaws in this type of model.

I agree with Asimov additions in the last books of that series ("The
foundation series" for those that haven't read it). Its a nice idea, it may
even work to some degree, but it cant handle black swan events and hence isn't
something you wouldn't want to rely on it the long term. Maybe something to
use as an extra guide for caution than an actual oracle.

