
Why Are PC Sales Up and Tablet Sales Down? - bane
http://techcrunch.com/2014/08/23/why-are-pcs-up-and-tablets-down/
======
overgard
I basically use my tablet for three things: web browsing on my couch, as a
companion lookup device when I'm reading a book or paper that's challenging,
or for the occasional game. I've had it for like 3 years now, and I can't
think of any reason to upgrade it unless it breaks. I like it, but it's
basically useless as a content creation device, and it already does everything
I need it to do.

------
voteapathy
Just a general thought. At some point (for consumers anyway), these paradigms
will unite. As such, what will follow is the necessity for window management
that can handle different use cases. Right now the only OS really attempting
to bridge the gap is Windows 8, which is currently an unfortunate
juxtaposition of two battling WM's rather than a seamless unification. Apple
isn't really bothering to unify at the moment, Google isn't sure what it wants
to do, and desktop linux (though I primarily work in linux) really is a less
quality product.

I'd argue that window management innovation has been a terribly sorry state
for quite a while. I mean, I would venture a guess that the increasing
prevalence of browser-based tools is in part a result of a lack of [good]
innovation by WM's (of course, as well as better tools for web app
developers). Mobile OS's have been the only thing to really shake things up.

I'm not sure exactly what my point is here. Just a general feeling that we're
going to continue to debate on the differences between tablets and pc's until
someone actually goes ahead and creates a useful WM for both use cases.
Windows 8 is an okay start in that regard, but I feel there's a way to do it
better.

~~~
bztzt
Definitely agreed. Another interesting problem for the near? future is multi-
device window management - can you use the collection of devices and screens
(whether phone/tablet/desktop/whatever) on hand at a given moment as a kind of
ad hoc multimonitor workstation? What about when multiple users are involved?
(of course all of this is a systems/OS and privacy/security challenge, as well
as an interaction design challenge)

I sometimes get the impression most people now think of window management as
either a solved problem and/or one rendered irrelevant by the rise of
"mobile", but it's quite the opposite IMO.

------
kybernetyk
I guess 5 - 7 years are over and people replace their old desktop/laptop PCs
this year.

As for tablets: They are pretty boring content consumption devices. Why would
you buy every year a new tablet if all you do with them is surfing the
web/watching netflix? Also there's no mobile network operator who will give
you one "for free" every two years when you renew a contract.

~~~
zo1
" _Also there 's no mobile network operator who will give you one "for free"
every two years when you renew a contract._"

I live in South Africa, and that regularly happens here. People take out 2
year contracts for "data" and get tablets/laptops for free along with it. I
suppose it's not so common in more developed countries where most mobile
internet packages are "unlimited". Here, they're very much limited to
multiples of 500MB/month.

~~~
johnchristopher
No. In Western Europe, where I live, we also have a lot of mobile packages
that bundles a tablet/phone for 1 euro and a data subscription plan that is
often limited to 50 or 500mbytes.

For instance my mobile phone plan includes 60 minutes of free phone call,
50mbytes of data, free call to people on the same operator on the week-end and
unlimited SMS for 9euros/month. There's a 15euros plan that includes 500mb and
150 minutes that I might switch to in the coming months.

~~~
SixSigma
I pay 15 euros a month for 1000Gb in the UK, with
[http://Three.co.uk/](http://Three.co.uk/) on 4G with tethering permitted.
Unlimited Texts and 1000 hours of talk time.

I get no roaming charges in Australia, Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Hong
Kong, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Macau, Norway, Republic of Ireland, Sri Lanka,
Sweden, Switzerland, United States.

For 50 Euros I can roam worldwide with no extra charges beyond that.

------
randallsquared
The "super tablets" that the article claims as the next step are what every
nearly tablet before the iPad tried to be, and they universally fell on their
face.

~~~
ams6110
In arguing for "super tablets" the author writes: _PCs are expensive, prone to
failure, easy to break and magnets for viruses and malware. After just a bit
of use, many PCs are susceptible to constant freezes and crashes._

I don't see how a super tablet addresses any of that except perhaps cost. Ever
drop a tablet? Have it fall into water? Ever see people using phones and
tablets with shattered glass? I don't see them being less "breakable" than a
PC, in fact much moreso because they are being moved around a lot more. They
are also a lot more likely to be stolen, misplaced, or lost. And a tablet,
especially one that runs MS Office, would not be any less of a target for
malware than a PC, nor any more immune to it.

~~~
bztzt
You're right that there's nothing inherent to the tablet form factor per se
that makes it less vulnerable to malware. It's just that the different input
mechanism and smaller screen size makes backward compatibility less useful,
and it's easier for platforms (including Windows RT) to build security into
their app models if they don't have to worry about compatibility.

------
aetherson
Tablet sales are down because 10" tablets are not very useful devices, and 7"
tablets are increasingly having their lunch eaten by phablets. (edit: And
because manufacturers push 10"s over 7"s, and some other reasons)

The article is all about the purported benefits of tablets as being low
maintenance, lower user burden, but a tablet is a form factor. There's no
reason why you can't produce a machine with a keyboard and monitor that has
the limited options and simplicity of set-up as a tablet, and indeed there
have been periodic attempts to do that -- ChromeOS is perhaps the latest. It
turns out that, contra the article, they haven't been wildly popular.

The tablet form factor is never going to be a good choice for office workers
who use MS Office, even with various plug-in keyboards and other hybrid
approaches.

------
Pxtl
I'm betting a couple of factors:

1) XP is finally too dead to even consider continuing to use. You can't get by
with IE8.

2) Windows 8.1 has mitigated windows 8 problems. This is probably helping a
lot of folks through the 7/8 anxiety.

3) Companies not named Apple haven noticed that their laptops are ugly clunky
hunks of plastic and are working on ultrabook-form-factor laptops, placing
them only half a decade behind Apple.

~~~
gerbal
4) Chromebooks have also exploded on the low end of the market (5 million+
sales in 2014).

The bullshit "super tablet" the techcrunch article describes sounds more like
a $250 chromebook/netbook than a $800 'super tablet.'

------
manishsharan
Tablets are simple appliances limited to consuming content . My IPad 1 lets me
watch Netflix, Youtube and surf the web just as well as the latest version of
the IPad .Therefore I see no reason to buy the latest version. I have in the
meanwhile bought/upgraded laptops thrice for myself as I see an immediate
improvement in my productivity with faster CPU and more RAM or bigger SSD.

~~~
RealGeek
I was happy with my iPad 2 until I upgraded to iOS 7. iOS 7 has slowed down my
iPad 2 to a point it is barely useable. I bought a new iPad Air only because
of iOS 7, otherwise I didn't need another tablet.

------
mattdlondon
About these super tablets... "...least a 13” screen, 64 bit processor, 2GB of
RAM, 256GB drive, a real keyboard, an actual file system, and an improved
operating system with windowing and true multitasking capability..."

They've just described a laptop/chromebook, right?

~~~
jayd16
Basically they've only described the Surface.

~~~
CountSessine
If you add the touchscreen requirement, yes. And while the Surface certainly
hasn't been a flop (not the x86 version at least), looking at its sales alone
wouldn't suggest that it's the way forward.

------
ricardobeat
> The initial market for tablets is now saturated: grandparents and kids have
> them, people bought them as Sonos controllers and such, and numerous
> households have them around for reading

This author's view of tablets is so, so off the mark it makes the whole
article even more worthless than the title suggests. Gaming, messaging,
browsing and a dozen other activities are responsible for the majority of
tablet usage.

~~~
14113
How can I be sure yours isn't off the mark as well? Are there any studies? Any
evidence? As is, I can't believe either of you.

------
nsns
Well, a harder question would be: why is this surprising? (How can a tablet
ever replace a PC? How come leading companies thought/think that it could?)

~~~
3minus1
This is what is so confusing to me. Although I had a similar skepticism about
smartphones, before I got one.

------
logicallee
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BnLbv6QYcA&t=2m24s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BnLbv6QYcA&t=2m24s)
is why

Seriously though, the Economist speculated it's because XP is being phased
out.

------
johngalt
Tablets are getting squeezed. The app driven, web-consumption use case for
tablets is getting eaten by smartphones. Meanwhile PCs are still necessary for
heavy usage. Put yourself in an average user's shoes. You already carry around
a subsidized smartphone more capable than most tablets, and you can pick up a
$500 laptop to handle everything else.

IMHO, a few years from now you'll have a more mature application ecosystem and
better docking solutions for smartphones. Once people can use their
smartphones with a full size keyboard/mouse/monitor, it's game over for
tablets and PCs.

~~~
gerbal
>Once people can use their smartphones with a full size
keyboard/mouse/monitor, it's game over for tablets and PCs.

You already can do that. You've been able to do that for the past few years.
You can connect a bluetooth mouse and keyboard, and a display with the
appropriate adapter. Android has supported it since launch, and iOS for
atleast as long.

People don't want their phone to be their PC. They want something physical
they can use to get work done. Institutional and corporate purchasers are some
of the largest consumers of new desktops and laptops. They want discrete,
manageable hardware, not to have to deal with the nonsense of buying all of
their employees a phone.

------
bluedino
Sales are down because no new ones have came out in a while.

I upgraded from my iPad 3 to a Retina Mini, but I didn't really _need_ to, I
just did. A co-worker gave me more than I could sell it for on eBay and I
found an open-box Mini at Best Buy, so it wasn't like I spent $200 to switch.

I use it all the time. It's easily my primary device. It's to the point where
I certainly wouldn't sell my laptop (2013 MacBook Air 13") but I'd consider
downgrading it since I don't use it enough to justify the $1300 cost.

------
clairity
make no mistake, tablets are the next wave of computing for the mass market.
the article basically says that we're in the lull between saturating the early
adopter segments and addressing the majority segments, i.e., we're peering
into the chasm. it's not a reversal of the market toward pc's.

the reasoning, in my reading of the article, is that the tablet market
materialized so quickly that most manufacturers (including apple) didn't have
enough time to anticipate future market needs beyond simple consumption
devices. now that tablets are "a thing", manufacturers are regrouping to
provide the next set of features and functionality that now seem obvious to
deliver but are more complex. the timing is also dependent on a number of
technologies having advanced enough (processors, displays, batteries, software
toolchains, ubiquitous connectivity, etc.).

even in the enterprise, computing devices are moving toward being appliances,
which is where tablet technologies fit in (note that mobility is not a key
priority for a good chunk of the enterprise). your average salesperson,
accountant or analyst has no appetite for managing the device itself, and ios
and android (to a lesser extent) are designed to hide away this complexity.
15" tablets with wireless keyboards/mice and robust remote management
capabilities will replace (or converge with, if you prefer) most desktops &
laptops in the enterprise in time. many outside sales teams are already on
tablets since mobility & connectivity trump power for outside sales.

~~~
gerbal
>15" tablets with wireless keyboards/mice and robust remote management
capabilities

you just described a chromebook. And at 1/3 the price of a tablet, Chromebooks
are plenty appealing in ways a tablet just isn't

~~~
lazylizard
if its going to be bigger than 10", lets have them run x86 processors instead
of arm stuff, since we have battery?

------
elorant
Tablets will become obsolete once smartphone's screen size increases. We're
already into the 5"\+ region for smartphones and rumors have it that the next
iPhone will be in the region of 6". That's enough screen real estate to browse
web sites. Past that the device becomes cumbersome to carry around and if
you're in a fixed position you can use your PC/ultrabook.

~~~
simonblack
I have gone through the 'make it smaller' phase of mobile phones from when
they were relatively large heavy bricks that ruined your clothes (or could
only be carried in your hand) down to the small chocolate bar size where you
could comfortably put two of them in your pocket without noticing them.

Now, I find we are going through a 'make it larger' phase where mobile phones
are getting too large again to comfortably fit in your pocket. I dislike my
Samsung S3 for that reason, and it is no longer one of the largest.

When a phone is too large to fit conveniently in your clothes because of
weight or size, you can no longer think of it as 'mobile' because you rarely
carry it on your person, and tend to put it down and walk away from it out of
earshot.

------
mattgreenrocks
I'd love a tablet I could do real work on. The Surface comes closest with the
fold-out keyboard, but it's a bit expensive. I live at the command line when I
do dev, so installing something like Ubuntu would be ideal.

I'm not convinced this is a niche need, either. Manufacturers are just slow to
catch up.

I have another rant in me about the entirety of tech chasing Joe Average, but
that's for another day.

~~~
icebraining
What about the Transformer Pad?

I use my Nexus 7 with a bluetooth keyboard and a Debian installation, though I
mostly SSH to a VPS. There's also Ubuntu for Android[1], but I haven't tried
it.

[1] [http://www.ubuntu.com/phone/ubuntu-for-
android](http://www.ubuntu.com/phone/ubuntu-for-android)

------
eric_h
It seems to me that this is going to be the cycle for the next decade or so,
with PC sales and tablet sales cycling out of phase with each other.

Mind you, my own purchases don't reflect this. My current PC I bought 3 years
ago, and I've purchased three iPads since (selling the older ones as I went
along, they really do retain value quite well, making this a not terribly
expensive habit).

------
dpweb
The fact remains you can't work on a tablet and you can't talk on a tablet.
You can, but it's not enjoyable. I would ditch my phone if they would give me
a talk and text plan for my iPad mini. Instead they're just making the phones
bigger.

------
srean
Question to HN: has anyone tried the Onyx Boox series of ereaders sized 9" and
over ?

I am getting tempted, no small part of the temptation is the fact that its
software stack seems entirely open source, based on Linux and the source code
is on Github. That seems just perfect. The only thing that bothers me is that
it is somewhat pricey $300+ and am not too sure about its performance.

I lug around quite a big pile of technical pdfs. If something can reduce that
weight I am up for it. So the decision for me is whether to go for a tablet or
a e-reader like onyx boox, it seems to be a "few of a kind" if not one of a
kind.

EDIT: Thanks, whoever upvoted this back up from grey, it seems to have annoyed
someone.

~~~
AlisdairO
I have a Boox M92 (9.7"). I'm a fan, generally.

The experience (thanks to screen refresh speed) is inevitably much clunkier
than on a tablet, but I really like it for technical reading. I like to read
outside in the sun, and e-ink works well there.

The M92 is definitely a cheaper feeling device than your average tablet - I
guess thanks to lower volumes. I think if I were doing relatively short bursts
of reading/reference inside, I'd go with a normal tablet - the refresh
difference is really noticeable. If you're sitting back and reading for longer
periods, the Boox is fantastic.

------
enrmarc
Maybe the problem is the software and not the hardware? I mean, people are
used to software like Microsoft Word and this kind of software is vaguely
imitated in the tablet world. Even if that were the case, you have to buy an
external keyboard (because nobody wants to use the soft keyboard when dealing
with important documents) and maybe a mouse because after working you want to
play a (decent) game (decent games require the use of mouse, right?).

At the end of the day, you have a tablet + keyboard + mouse and a "limited" OS
(limited compared to a real OS like Mac OS X/Ubuntu/Windows). Compare this
configuration with a Mac Book Air. Who wins?

------
altcognito
It is only a matter of time before someone sells a "docking station" for
smartphones with HDMI outputs to a monitor and a keyboard/mouse setup as a
replacement for a desktop. (if it doesn't exist already)

~~~
colechristensen
[http://www.amazon.com/Motorola-Lapdock-500-Pro-
Smartphones/d...](http://www.amazon.com/Motorola-Lapdock-500-Pro-
Smartphones/dp/B006291NXG)

I give you, the recent past! I used one once, the experience was
underwhelming. It could have been good (my phone had more than enough power to
run a lightweight linux window manager and web browser pretty well, the
android software just wasn't very polished)

And it's untimely death

[http://www.cnet.com/news/motorola-confirms-death-of-
webtop-l...](http://www.cnet.com/news/motorola-confirms-death-of-webtop-
laptop-accessories/)

[http://www.androidcentral.com/tag/webtop](http://www.androidcentral.com/tag/webtop)

~~~
magicalist
I wonder if it would be better now that mobile GPUs are pushing as many (or
more) pixels as desktop screens have. I agree the software is the problem and
still probably not there yet, and it's unlikely any company is going to put
the development resources into it needed to get it right.

The solution is (maybe) to go commodity for everything. Maybe a partition on
your phone with ubuntu on it and just boot into a different OS when you dock?
You'd need it to boot fast, and you'd probably want to share files between
desktop-mode and phone-mode, which is going to be difficult. Hardware-wise,
screw the laptop form factor and just go for the monitor/keyboard/mouse that
many many people already have in their house. The only hardware you sell is a
cord splitter that plugs into the phone and triggers a fast OS switch when you
plug it in.

ChromeOS might work ok, too, if you're ok with just a browser; it could be
just a little Chromebox already built and ready.

~~~
maxerickson
I think Windows 8 was a step in the right direction, where different user
interfaces run on top of the same system.

The various cloud sync services are also making small steps towards a future
where you are using the same software system from a variety of devices (with
the system making appropriate accommodations for the devices in use).

------
na85
I hope people are starting to wake up to the fact that a tablet is just a
smartphone that doesn't fit into your pocket and usually lacks the "phone"
functionality.

~~~
icebraining
My tablet fits in my pocket and can make and receive VoIP calls just fine. I'd
happily sell my cheap phone if it didn't cost me much more to have a mobile
Internet plan just to receive calls.

------
pkorzeniewski
My tablet, which I bought 4 years ago, collects dust in the closet and I use
it maybe twice a year - I just can't find a single reason to use a tablet on a
daily basis and yes, I had the new iPads, Surfaces etc. in my hands.
Everything I need to do outside home I can do on a smartphone and if I need to
do real work, I just use a laptop.

------
moskie
Anecdotal: the PC and laptop I bought around the time tablets started coming
out are starting to show their age. So now I'm in the market for their
replacements. Could a factor be the fact that the age of the tablet market
currently equals the average lifetime of a PC?

~~~
wyager
I would expect PC end-of-lifes to be distributed randomly or on a yearly
cycle, not on a three-year cycle.

~~~
iaskwhy
Good point. Here's a theory: laptops were running out of time and people had
to opt for a new laptop or a tablet (which, at the time, had the novelty
factor) and most of them decided to try a tablet. Tablets did not replace the
old laptops so (some) people have since bought a new laptop. This could
explain why laptop sales were down during the first stages of tablets' market
penetration.

~~~
moskie
Yes, this is close to what I was trying to bring up.

------
rffn
The tablet gets eaten by phones and phablets. As somebody else put it: "Phone,
tablet, and laptop; pick any two." No need to have three of them for most
people. In addition, the customers who tink to need all three already have a
tablet.

------
naland
> ... alike are again purchasing PCs, and Mac sales are on the rise year-over-
> year.<

'Super Tablets' but no 'Super PCs' in this incomplete article. It's a hardware
matter treated pathetically by the Industry.

------
keerthiko
Two words:

NEW GAMES

Gaming has been on the rise as always, and PC gaming has started picking up
heavily, especially with the modern eSports scene pretty much dominated by PC.
And you need to upgrade those guys to keep abreast.

------
seanmcdirmid
UHD displays are finally becoming common (not just for Macs anymore). A lot of
people are upgrading, at least at the high end, because the experience really
is better.

------
bitwize
Because come to find out, tablets are actually fairly limited and not the be-
all and end-all of even end-user computing.

------
walterbell
An entire article about the costs of PC management, without addressing
enterprise management of tablets & phones.

~~~
erikpukinskis
"The main benefits of super tablets to enterprises are their systems
management and replaceability. Smartphones and tablets are so simple and easy
to manage that they are typically handled by an IT organization’s cost-
effective phone team rather than more expensive PC technicians, who are
typically so overwhelmed with small problems that they cannot focus on fixing
more complex issues. Apps can be provisioned and updated by both IT and end-
users without causing conflicts or problems. If a device is lost, it is easy
to remote wipe data and to provision a new device with all of the same
settings.

"Programs like BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) just accentuate the fact that
smartphones and tablets are so easy to manage that enterprises are comfortable
letting their employees pick the devices themselves."

~~~
walterbell
Prior to Feb 2014, iPad management required attaching a cable to every device.
Enterprise improvements were requested for years, too bad Apple waited until
sales slowed to address the concerns of IT admins,
[http://techcrunch.com/2014/02/26/apple-launches-big-
improvem...](http://techcrunch.com/2014/02/26/apple-launches-big-improvements-
for-ios-management-tools-for-enterprise-and-education/)

 _" I’ve had conversations with IT pros and people who roll out large iPad
installs in the past and they’ve mentioned that one of the things that has
continued to cause Windows devices to hold some appeal is their better remote
installation and configuration support. To that end, Apple has made some
updates to improve that situation.

Both the enterprise and education programs now have support for Mobile Device
Management hands-free configuration. This ‘zero touch’ setup has been a long-
requested feature for many pros, as it eliminates the need to cable up every
deployed device and install a profile via Apple’s Configurator utility."_

------
holri
because the hype begins to slow down

