
Tesla strikes another mammoth energy storage deal in California - jonbaer
https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2018/07/california-utility-looks-to-add-gigawatt-hours-of-battery-storage-before-2020/
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itchyjunk
Is lithium ion batteries the best choice for large scale energy storage? Has
this been real world tested or are these few deals going to decide the trend?

Just few years ago, storage was considered a big problem and batteries were
considered not so viable. What changed? Density and reliability?

~~~
mtgx
Not only have prices _drastically_ dropped in the past few years, but they are
expected to drop _another_ few X in the next few years.

[https://electrek.co/2017/01/30/electric-vehicle-battery-
cost...](https://electrek.co/2017/01/30/electric-vehicle-battery-cost-
dropped-80-6-years-227kwh-tesla-190kwh/)

[https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/09/100-kwh-tesla-
battery-c...](https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/09/100-kwh-tesla-battery-
cells-this-year-100-kwh-tesla-battery-packs-in-2020/)

I think we'll reach $50/kWh well before 2025. That's also around the same time
we should have a global production of about 800GWh-1TWh per year (bulk of that
from Chinese factories), or about 20x the current production.

Assuming an _average_ battery size of 50kWh for an EV by then, even that
capacity should only be enough for around -15-20 million EVs a year, or about
20-25% of the annual car sales. I may be a little optimistic here on battery
size. It's possible many EVs will be super-cheap with 30kWh batteries, but
we'll also see many more buses and trucks with 300+ kWh batteries. We'll need
to go from 1TWh to 2 and 3TWh pretty quickly especially if we are to use
batteries for utilities, too.

Around the same time we should begin to see car makers start using the much
safer solid state batteries in their EVs. These will be more expensive
(probably not more than what Li-Ion batteries cost _right now_ ) and they will
start shipping in $50,000+ EVs at first, but they will eventually trickle down
just as Li-Ion batteries have and will.

What I want to know is why do smartphone manufacturers think it's okay to sell
$800 phones with 3,000 mAh batteries about four years after shipping them for
the first time on the market. They did exactly the same thing with storage.
They kept 16GB as default for a few years in their flagships, to the point
where it cost them 4x less/GB than it did when they first launched with a 16GB
drive.

~~~
euyyn
Because unlike storage, the energy density of a battery only increases very
slowly if at all. So it becomes not a trade in price, but a trade in size.

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olivermarks
Previous thread on China winning global race to control batteries
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16356343](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16356343)

'Tesla' is essentially panasonic partnership in battery manufacture

'Panasonic is the exclusive battery cell supplier for Tesla’s current
production models, making them in Japan as well as at the $5 billion
Gigafactory'.

[https://www.reuters.com/article/us-panasonic-
batteries/panas...](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-panasonic-
batteries/panasonic-to-consider-more-investment-in-teslas-gigafactory-if-
asked-executive-idUSKBN1JS08J)

Musk is a little like Branson in his branded businesses with v major stakes
owned by others. (in the case of Branson mostly Saudis)

~~~
Gibbon1
I think Musk is like Branson in you give him money to do X he'll actually try
and do it rather than come up with cunning plans to screw you.

