
The End of the Chinese Miracle Is in Sight. What’s Next? - headalgorithm
https://singularityhub.com/2019/10/06/the-end-of-the-chinese-miracle-is-in-sight-whats-next/
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rossdavidh
It doesn't even bring up the biggest issues that distinguish China's future
from its past: 1) the last 20th century was distinguishable from the early and
mid 20th century, for China, by NOT having a lot of civil war or invasion.
Simply not having a war going on is a great way to do better. But eventually,
after a generation or so of peace, while peace is still a good idea it's not
new and so doesn't provide easy opportunities for growth. 2) For quite a
while, China could emulate technological innovation that it witnessed in other
countries (Japan, North America, western Europe). It is now approaching the
technological forefront, and it's not as obvious which path to take. Is AI a
great idea or will it prove to be a bust that overpromises and underdelivers?
Can solar, wind, and hydro power replace fossil fuels sooner, or later? Should
internal combustion cars with human drivers be replaced with electric self-
driving cars? The answers are not as obvious, because all of the other
countries are trying to figure that out also. This makes the advantages of
centralized decision-making less clear, and the disadvantages more of a
problem.

Not to say that China can't overcome these issues, but this article doesn't
even raise them.

