
Reflections on the Shock of Brexit - wsc981
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/437145/brexit-elite-shock-disappointment
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jasonjei
"Democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where 51% of the people may take
away the rights of the other 49%." \-- Thomas Jefferson

"Alexander Hamilton believed in America but not in Americans when he said in a
June 1788 speech defending the ratification of the U.S. Constitution: 'That a
pure democracy if it were practicable would be the most perfect government.
Experience has proved that no position is more false than this. The ancient
democracies in which the people themselves deliberated never possessed one
good feature of government. Their very character was tyranny; their figure,
deformity.'"

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calibraxis
Yes, the US government's founders explicitly hated democracy, and were
slavers.

Only after president Andrew Jackson transformed the language in a PR stunt
(maybe like calling yourself "anarchist" nowadays), did people imagine the US
as a "democracy." (Which of course it isn't, just look at the guys who made
the US government.)

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jasonjei
I don't believe they hated democracy. I do think they had a dim view of people
doing the right thing and mob rule. Hamilton wrote the above quote when he saw
somebody being lynched in Albany.

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blimey74
The FTSE 250 closed 11.4 % down on Friday, its worst drop ever. I think it's a
extremely premature to be saying everything is fine. No-one will know for
several years whether it was a good decision or not.

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bluejekyll
Or maybe the article is trying to calm nerves by saying that the markets were
already prepared for this, and so the stock hit is done and over.

Hard to predict, but I like that the article is trying to calm people, rather
than freaking people out.

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rch
I heard Greenspan is predicting that this will be a catalyst for widespread
turmoil, which sort suggests that it won't be.

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lifeisstillgood
Ok a small worry:

1\. HSBC bank regularly has board meetings debating to move to Hong Kong. This
will probably tip the balance.

2\. Most banks want to cut staff. For example in 2013 BARCLAYS did 50bn a year
on 130k headcount but google did same 50bn on 40k people. Most banks think
they can lose 1-2/3rds of their staff, and this is a once in a lifetime
opportunity

Now, _if_ my pessimism is right, suddenly London finance sector has 10s of
thousands looking for work. The frothy housing market will tank with the dock
lands hit hard but generally the unsustainable prices heading south. The knock
on effects to the commuter belt will be equally hard. I can imagine being
close to negative equity myself.

It's hyper local, but it's a real fear.

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lifeisstillgood
There is a lot of soul-searching (and poll-searching) going on in the UK right
now. And it's worth capturing some of the main points (some reflected in this
article some not)

the vote is best seen as a protest vote driven by three _emotional_ issues

1\. Fear of immigration 2\. Fear of economic dislocation 3\. Frustration at
being out of political decision making

Comments: All of the above are common threads in right wing and centre right
politics across the western world. From Trump to Greece there is a strong
right wing, older, lower educated rump of around 15% who are the economic
losers in the past couple of decades amazing debt field growth that has lifted
hundreds of millions out of absolute poverty (a Good Thing)

But these three themes (the New Right) are not intellectually driven. They are
weirdly fact free zones.

For example, the strongest Leave votes in the UK come from area with minimal
immigration. Just as no Mexican ever stole a Pennsylvania Coal Miners job,
Immigrants in the UK are not taking jobs from workers in Hull - because there
are no bloody jobs in Hull.

2\. Economic dislocation _is_ a problem - London is a black hole pulling jobs,
finance, young people, from everywhere else in the country to itself. House
prices reflect this - houses can be bought for a few tens of thousands just a
few hours drive from central Londons million pound pads.

Nothing about this makes sense - our economic future is a concern whatever we
do with Europe, and it's just more dislocated in the UK.

The problem is fixing it. Our economy is mostly services now - finance being a
ridiculous 10-15 % of GDP. And we are not competing when selling real goods
with Germany or others.

Fixing that is a huge industrial policy issue and I don't see people taking it
on.

As for the last - well An amazing BBC clip (TBC) shows a voter who voted to
leave, seeming genuinely shocked at the result saying "but I thought my vote
did not matter".

Turns out people feel disconnected from a political process that actually _is_
working. When it is used. The problem is politicians and electoral rules
clouding the direct levers.

So rant slowly ending - we have had a massive protest vote "against the
establishment" \- which is driven by fears that turn out not to be based on
facts, that will result in election of a person who is just as establishment
(Boris Johnson was in the same posh school / university class as Cameron. It's
not a diversity win here)

My feeling is democracy has stopped being served by five yearly elections -
that the real issues are much more local, and we need to find ways of forcing
"evidence based politics" and more direct local action.

Sadly that can be the same sound bite as "take back our sovereignty"

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rm445
One thing that is odd, is that as far as I can tell during the run-up to the
referendum, no-one made the intellectual case for free movement of people to
live and work throughout Europe. The 'Remain' camp made occasional and frankly
incoherent statements about immigration while staying relentlessly on-message,
sticking to the economy as the supposed winning hand. While of course the
'Leave' side played thoroughly on fear of immigration.

Don't get me wrong, I'm sure it's economically efficient to have a borderless
workforce, and there are also intellectual arguments about fairness. (I voted
'Remain', but that could be seen as self-interest for my own demographic).
What isn't clear is why a lower-skilled worker already in a high-income
country, who doesn't have any interest in moving abroad, _wouldn 't_ consider
it in their own interest to pull the ladder up and restrict immigration.

