
Tesla is 'going out of business,' says former GM exec Bob Lutz - kushti
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/17/tesla-is-going-out-of-business-says-former-gm-exec-bob-lutz.html
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Nokinside
At least some points he makes are true.

 __Battery tech __

Tesla don 't own any important battery technology or patents.

Main battery manufacturers are Panasonic, LG Chem and Samsung SDI. Panasonic
is the leader and Tesla’s manufacturing partner, but LG Chem has made lots of
progress and they are supplying to GM. Panasonic is rapidly expanding their
own battery production is going to sell to other manufacturers also.

 __fixed cost and mass production __

Tesla has no experience with large scale mass production (producing less than
100,000 cars annually is not big league). They have struggled with quality and
delivery even with modest volumes for years, it will be harder when volumes
grow. They don 't survive massive recalls if the quality is not improving.

They have to get Model 3 into mass production within a year or they will run
out of money and investor's and customers patience. Nobody want's to wait
years for a car. Roadster and Semi are just distractions. Tesla's future is on
Model 3.

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mtgx
Wishful thinking. The main issue with Model 3 is just that they _can 't make
batteries fast enough_. This is a solvable issue, and it would normally be
considered a "good problem to have" (not being able to make products fast
enough to meet demand).

The only reason this is seen so negatively right now is mainly because Musk
has set such high standards for Tesla by trying to increase production by 5x
within 12-18 months and hoping everything will go perfectly smooth.

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jacquesm
Good problems to have are still problems and can still cause you to go out of
business. Car manufacturing is _all_ about logistics, quality and capital
management. Fail at any one of those three and your car company will fail.
There is a pretty good reason why there has been a huge consolidation
happening in the car industry over the last 30 years, getting those things
right isn't easy at all.

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Fjolsvith
Hmmm... Didn't Pontiac go out of business recently? I thought they were owned
by GM. Am I wrong?

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hkmurakami
iirc they wound down a few internal brands several years ago following the
financial crisis.

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Boothroid
Well, he would say that, wouldn't he.

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greglindahl
Same things he's been saying for years, yes.

