

The Evolution of Overconfidence - timf
http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/24162/

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seigenblues
Didn't we just see a post on how people who had high self-opinions of their
abilities made more money on average? Wasn't that just yesterday?

squaring up this ("The Kind of Employees You Want To Hire"):
[http://www.businessweek.com/managing/content/sep2009/ca20090...](http://www.businessweek.com/managing/content/sep2009/ca20090922_894897.htm?campaign_id=rss_topStories)
with this: ("Unskilled and Unaware of it")
<http://www.apa.org/journals/features/psp7761121.pdf>
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect>
<http://www.damninteresting.com/unskilled-and-unaware-of-it>

seems to suggest that the natural explanation is a) overconfidence helps us in
a lot of intangible ways -- impressing bosses, convincing people to give us
jobs/money, whatever. b) as long as it doesn't kill us in the tangible ways.
(whoops, turns out i can't catch a bullet with my teeth!)

------
hegemonicon
More on our overconfidence bias:
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect>

and it's twin brother, certanity bias:
[http://scienceblogs.com/cortex/2008/10/the_certainty_bias_1....](http://scienceblogs.com/cortex/2008/10/the_certainty_bias_1.php)

The human brain just isn't built to handle probabilities very well.

------
forinti
It is possible for most people to be above average. And what is a "statistical
impossibility"?

~~~
CodeMage
A good example of "statistical impossibility" (it does have a silly sound,
doesn't it) would be to claim that _all_ people are above the average ;)

