
Japan’s Coronavirus Cases Fall Sharply Without Compulsory Measures - flyGuyOnTheSly
https://www.wsj.com/articles/japans-coronavirus-cases-fall-sharply-without-compulsory-measures-11587993871
======
trynewideas
I'm skeptical of the WSJ, not that there aren't good points here but that
there's some missing context.

Reuters on hospital stress in Japan, where ICU beds per capita are fewer and
more spread out geographically than in Europe:
[https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-
japan-...](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-japan-icu-
idUSKCN22A03L)

WaPo on how Japan's societal norms are a double-edged sword:
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/japan-
coro...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/japan-coronavirus-
bars-nightclubs-
clusters/2020/04/27/190e2f12-84d1-11ea-81a3-9690c9881111_story.html)

Mainichi on how Japan is underperforming its targets based on location data,
and the expected struggles with upcoming May holidays:
[https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200427/p2a/00m/0na/00...](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200427/p2a/00m/0na/002000c)

Mainichi on Abe expanding the scope of its foreign entry bans — a compulsory
measure, just not on people already in Japan:
[https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200427/p2g/00m/0na/06...](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200427/p2g/00m/0na/060000c)

Mainichi on how the national government underestimated both demand and
production of masks:
[https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200427/p2a/00m/0na/00...](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200427/p2a/00m/0na/005000c)

Mainichi on how despite the lack of compulsory domestic closures, restaurant
demand is still tanking by up to 80 percent:
[https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200427/p2a/00m/0na/00...](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200427/p2a/00m/0na/005000c)

~~~
kalleboo
> _Mainichi on how Japan is underperforming its targets based on location
> data, and the expected struggles with upcoming May holidays_

At least the important hotspots (Tokyo, Osaka, etc) have reached their 80%
targets.

I live in a prefecture that had among the lowest reduction, but that's
understandable because we have no cases. It's hard to convince people to stay
home in order not to catch something that's not demonstrably going around.

But more importantly, they _have_ closed malls, people haven't been going to
bars/restaurants so they have closed just due to staffing costs, etc.
Hopefully the fact that there's just nothing to do here will keep people from
traveling here over the Golden Week holiday.

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mikekchar
I think the comment by the expert government advisor is probably correct: the
confirmed cases are just the tip of the iceberg. However, I had some unrelated
tests to do at a hospital in Shizuoka prefecture and had to stay overnight. I
asked the nurses what they thought and if they had seen anything unusual in
the past month. Although there are about 60 confirmed cases in the prefecture,
in the hospital where I was staying Corona virus seems not to have touched it.
Obviously anecdotal evidence, but the nurses claimed that everything was
business as usual and there was not an increase in respitory illnesses, etc.

I really do fear golden week, though. The news has been full of coverage of
people going to places like Kamakura, filling up car parks and creating
traffic jams. After being fairly severely rebuked by both the government and
the media, I've heard that people are mostly taking it seriously, but we'll
see starting tomorrow I guess.

~~~
ezoe
That's because Sizuoka isn't economically important and not much people from
Tokyo or Kansai region to stop by.

Somebody jokingly said that, by stating the statistics of cases in
prefectures, saying, "Appearently, the coronavirus is using the Nozomi
(Sinkansen that doesn't stop at Sizuoka)"

~~~
mikekchar
I won't be sad if it's true ;-)

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flyGuyOnTheSly
[http://archive.is/pVeUg](http://archive.is/pVeUg)

------
someonehere
Make your mind MSM. Last night a national news broadcast said Japan’s medical
system is on the brink of collapse from all these COVID cases. I then see
articles like this.

Which is it? Is Japan improving or about to collapse?

~~~
kalleboo
Severe cases lag newly identified cases, especially in cluster-tracing
countries like Japan. And ICU cases are cumulative for a few weeks, so even
with the lowest number of new cases, they still have to continue treat the
past 2-3 weeks peak of cases.

Mainstream media has been exceptionally poor at putting news of the pandemic
in context, most reporting is very disjointed and confusing.

------
paulryanrogers
Confirmed cases, without widespread testing, and asking a conforming society
to reduce activity by 80%. Not sure there's much that can be learned here and
applied elsewhere.

~~~
melling
Focused testing:

“ Japan has also shunned widespread testing for the virus, instead focusing on
targeting clusters of infection when they appear in an effort to snuff out any
further spread. ”

~~~
paulryanrogers
Right though I'm not sure it proves much without broader testing to gauge
spread in the community at large.

------
bjornstar
In Japan the Coronavirus takes the weekend off so we see new cases reduced by
75% on Mondays. It's too obvious that Japan is under-testing.

With Abe's masks getting recalled and hospitals refusing to take suspected
Coronavirus patients there is a lot that is going wrong here.

Closing the schools very early on has had a huge positive impact, but there
are still way too many people going to the office.

