
Deep in the Pentagon, a secret AI program to find hidden nuclear missiles - denissa
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-pentagon-missiles-ai-insight/deep-in-the-pentagon-a-secret-ai-program-to-find-hidden-nuclear-missiles-idUSKCN1J114J
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forapurpose
> The Pentagon is in a race against China and Russia to infuse more AI into
> its war machine ...

Much of the focus is on the U.S., China, and Russia, but I wonder who else is
doing it?

Several years ago, a leading thinker on the application of modern IT to the
military noted that it could represent an historic change: Throughout history,
military power depended mostly on the quantity of two resources, wealth and
population. But AI is much less strongly dependent on those things: You don't
need lots of people; the robots and computers do much of the fighting. And
wealth only helps so much: For AI, much of the war-fighting asset is software,
which of course is free to produce after development, not expensive hardware.
As we know well, spending more on software development doesn't always yield a
better outcome. What's the benefit from spending $100 billion on development
rather than $1 billion or even $10 million? For a lot of software, not much.
(Hardware scale does help machine learning, but is there an upper limit or
diminishing returns?)

Small countries might have an enormous opportunity. Could Singapore or Israel
take the lead in AI and become major military powers? Could Saudi Arabia or
Iran afford to develop AI as good as the U.S., China, or Russia? What about
private companies or individuals? I suspect it depends not on quantity of
developers, but on quantity of 10x developers and on who first discovers the
superior technology and, more importantly, its application. Remember that in
WWII, German tanks were inferior to many of their enemies, but the Germans
figured out how to use tanks more effectively and seized an enormous advantage
before their enemies could catch up.

EDIT: A couple clarifications and added the potential of private organizations

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otoburb
>> _Throughout history, military power depended mostly on the quantity of two
resources, wealth and population._

I thought that military power depended primarily on the quantity of population
and _materiél_. The latter is driven primarily by wealth, but also relies on
building, operating and maintaining a manufacturing and industrial base.

Smarter software will help equalize and hopefully reduce coordination costs
(i.e. command hierarchy & effective intelligence) but doesn't really help with
population nor materiél factors.

~~~
mieseratte
> but doesn't really help with population nor materiél.

To add, AI can help reduce staffing, failures, costs, etc. What it can't do is
magically project force. This requires boots on the ground or a weapons system
capable of reaching out and touching someone. This requires materiél, and for
the initial build-up flesh-and-bone soldiers.

However, there is a possible exception in the form of cyber warfare. If AI can
sufficiently disrupt digital infrastructure it could hypothetically bring
another power to its knees. Still, if that power can bounce back from the
initial setback that AI would again become a less direct asset.

~~~
pm90
Correct. And Cyber-based attacks are much less visible and easier to hide than
overt attacks e.g. a cruise missile. But as things get more automated, the
attack surface and concomitant damage will only increase.

This could have very real military effects. Suppose your supply lines/defense
contractors are targeted by foreign digital attackers. Even if your Military
itself uses secure communications and infrastructure, if their dependents are
disrupted, it will directly impact their effectiveness.

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rhacker
> If the research is successful, such computer systems would be able to think
> for themselves

At what point will journalists stop writing this. We may very well have
general AI at some point in the future, but I really doubt it's going to be in
our lifetimes.

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rhombocombus
It makes me bristle every time I read it. Advanced statistical computing !=
thinking! People love to conflate number crunching with intuition and all of
the other things that are impossible for computers to do, so I expect it to
continue.

~~~
pm90
Doesn't help that a lot of Tech companies actively promote that AI can deliver
a lot more than it can (e.g. IBM, Tesla)

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flyGuyOnTheSly
>such computer systems would be able to think for themselves, scouring huge
amounts of data, including satellite imagery, with a speed and accuracy beyond
the capability of humans, to look for signs of preparations for a missile
launch

Replace "a missile launch" with "a peaceful protest" and the statement
suddenly becomes dastardly.

The increasingly authoritarian Chinese government would absolutely adore a
technology like that, I am sure of it.

~~~
vntok
> Government-sent postmen would be able to walk past every single door in the
> country every morning and [deliver mail].

Replace "deliver mail" with "look through the windows and write down what they
see" and the statement suddenly becomes dastardly.

See what I did there? I took an random situation and made it instantly
negative and big-brotherish just by invoking an imaginary narrative.

Conspiracy theories just don't help advancing arguments.

~~~
jMyles
I think you're being unfair.

You've conflating the much simpler task of changing the label with a much
broader change (ie, throwing away the entire practice in favor of a completely
different and more difficult one).

Which do you honestly thing is more realistic and more consistent with what we
know of the history of the state?

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afpx
I’m not sure why this is news. I was interviewed for a position almost 10
years ago to develop software that categorized satellite imagery using
heuristics, object detection, and classification. I assumed that similar
projects had been going on for decades before.

Much of the ‘AI’ research has been directly (or indirectly) funded by DoD,
3-letter agencies, NATO, and many other countries since the field’s infancy.

~~~
hammock
Propaganda to counteract the negative press about AI for defense/Project
Maven, perhaps.

~~~
ardent_uno
So propaganda to counter propaganda?

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pteredactyl
Yes.

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ethbro
I imagine reviewing positive training data for that model is terrifying.

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arif_sohaib
I can only say from experience in Pakistan but culture makes it difficult for
other countries to succeed if they are turning away developers for ethnic,
tribal or religious reasons or for being on the autism spectrum. Not to
mention the culture of never questioning authority figures making proposing
new ideas much more difficult.

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staunch
Detecting launch prep might be useful but it's ultimately just too easy to
conceal a launch site to be the complete solution. It doesn't really help with
a sneak attack from a major power and US missile defense isn't even good
enough yet to reliably stop a NK attack.

What the world really needs is to ensure mutually assured destruction is
remains in effect. The world cannot afford to let the Russian or Chinese
dictators believe they can pull off a first strike and take over the world.

The problem right now is that the US is still trying to uphold MAD by itself
and it's failing. The US nuclear triad is way out of date and potentially
vulnerable to a first strike. We need to decentralize the system among other
wealthy and trustworthy countries.

All countries in the G7 should have enough nuclear weapons pointed at Russia
and China to ensure MAD. And they should develop these weapons independently
of the US for increased reliability and redundancy.

~~~
muhbags
Frankly, I think the country that one should be the most concerned about
pulling off a first strike is the USA, not China or Russia...

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21
Let me guess, because of Trump, right.

~~~
mathinpens
more like superfusing, missile defense systems, superior early warning
radar...

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a008t
But what if the nuclear missile is being carried by a bipedal walking tank?

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sonnyblarney
Does the fact they are using a different approach (i.e. 'Deep Learning') to
many of the same problems they've been trying to address for some time ...
even really matter?

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sonnyblarney
'War Games' -> WOPR [1]

[1]
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRsycWRQrc8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRsycWRQrc8)

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sulam
I'm kind of sad that we have enough imagery of nuclear missiles being fired to
train the model and verify it. :/

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pteredactyl
This is the most propaganda headline I've ever read.

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Sophistifunk
Do you want Skynet? Because this is how you get Skynet.

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asdfman123
I misread this as "secret AI program to fire nuclear missiles" and was briefly
terrified.

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mtgx
I see Pentagon PR reached out to Reuters.

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dang
Maybe so, but please don't post unsubstantive comments here.

