
The White-Collar Job Apocalypse That Didn’t Happen - johnny313
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/27/business/economy/jobs-offshoring.html
======
dvdhnt
Ah, corporate apologia.

> Companies did move millions of office jobs to India, the Philippines and
> other places where they could pay workers less. But those job losses were
> more than balanced by growth elsewhere in the economy.

That's like saying there will be an apple shortage but ignoring it because we
grew more oranges.

> But many companies discovered that labor savings were offset by other
> factors: time differences, language barriers, legal hurdles and the simple
> challenge of coordinating work half a world away. In some cases, companies
> decided they were better off moving jobs to less expensive parts of the
> United States rather than out of the country.

The thing is, rents and expenses continued to grow where these jobs used to be
but wages stagnated. Offshoring is a contributor to wage stagnation, which
would be acceptable if rents and expenses ebbed and flowed at the same pace.
But wealth inequality and rent-seekers continue to squeeze the average person.
The result is people who are underemployed or working multiple jobs.

> Ms. Lund said she saw parallels between offshoring and automation: Both
> trends threaten one set of jobs but should make the overall American economy
> more productive, creating new job opportunities, albeit ones requiring
> different skills. And she said the pace of change should allow workers,
> companies and governments to adapt.

Learning new skills isn't free. It will harm workers who have their jobs
automated. Our employment system isn't worker-friendly in this instance. Those
displaced workers will still need to pay rent and buy food ALONG with buying
new skills. They will probably end up underemployed.

~~~
snagglegaggle
I suggest referring people to
[http://economixcomix.com/home/tpp/](http://economixcomix.com/home/tpp/). It
has some very good explanations of the flaws in a lot of pro-globalization
economic arguments.

~~~
concordDance
Ridiculously superficial. Get a proper book on trade instead.

~~~
snagglegaggle
I have. The history of economic models is rife with those that were upset by a
voiding of a simple inherent assumption, much as the author of that comic
addresses. He provides citations, does he not?

------
dehrmann
I went on a date with a girl who does accounting for a VC firm in Menlo Park.
She got career advice in ~2002 not to study CS because it would all be in
India by 2015. My lucky-best decision was studying CS in 2002 right after the
bubble burst, everyone was worried about outsourcing, and the smartphone
revolution that led to 2009-present growth in tech hadn't started. Talk about
buying low.

I was recently talking to an Uber driver from Kenya who was saying rents in
Nairobi, an African tech hub, aren't that much cheaper than, say, Cleveland.
So we're past outsourcing...but Cleveland...

~~~
x2398dh1
> rents in Nairobi, an African tech hub, aren't that much cheaper than, say,
> Cleveland

That's an easily falsifiable assertion.

Here's an apartment in Nairobi that's $62.50 USD per month.

[https://www.buyrentkenya.com/listings/1-bed-flat-
apartment-f...](https://www.buyrentkenya.com/listings/1-bed-flat-apartment-
for-rent-ruaka-eml0044)

Cheapest apartments in Cleveland, OH meanwhile found here are $400 per month
and there are 4 of them.

[https://www.apartments.com/cleveland-
oh/400-to-400/](https://www.apartments.com/cleveland-oh/400-to-400/)

So there's a ~6:1 difference in rental price between the two, on the low end
as listed online. Presumably there are even cheaper deals to be had which are
not listed online. Food, labor, transportation and other expenses in Kenya are
going to be similarly less expensive, perhaps by even greater multiples.

So no...outsourcing is definitely cheaper in the short run, and for simpler
tasks.

I'm not going to tell you how to outsource or not outsource, and when it is
and is not appropriate but labor can definitely be had for much cheaper than
in the US. The US is now the richest country in the world per capita, more so
than Luxembourg and the other traditionally richer countries because the USD
is so strong.

Of course this will fluctuate over time, but that's the present status as we
have this discussion.

"Yeah but outsourcing is dumb and people don't know how to code."

It's dumb? They don't know how to code? Could it be that some people don't
know how to manage projects remotely and across cultures? Could it be that
some projects can be outsourced while others can't?

~~~
dehrmann
> Here's an apartment in Nairobi that's $62.50 USD per month.

I should research this; I was told $800 for two bedrooms.

This one's $430 (1 bedroom). So I have no idea, but there's probably a massive
range. Could be neighborhood, could be having security and power. I'm not
sure.

[https://deals.jumia.co.ke/1-bedroom-in-westlands-
pid4154172](https://deals.jumia.co.ke/1-bedroom-in-westlands-pid4154172)

------
barbecue_sauce
That didn't happen _yet_.

I think the biggest takeaway from gig economy "gig brokerage" platforms is
that many people would rather take direction from an app than a human manager
(conjecturally, for psychological reasons). If more traditional companies
(retailers, businesses with other large output-oriented workforces, etc.)
figured out a way to introduce this sort of algorithmic management model that
works for them to either hide or replace management while also augmenting it,
I feel like a great deal of middle-management bureaucracy could end up
eliminated.

~~~
blitmap
Game'ified performance appraisals or records/statistics that you can cite/link
for getting work outside the app-job.

Unlocking raises with hours invested or good reviews earned or a combination
of metrics.

Making in-app purchases to join a union or buy into additional benefits.

Integrating these gig economy apps with places like LinkedIn (shudder) to help
you find temporary work quickly without ever talking to a human.

~~~
Smithalicious
I'm guessing you're trying to sketch a dystopian scenario but that sounds
pretty appealing to me!

~~~
blitmap
The only part I disliked was LinkedIn - #introvertsunite

------
thrower123
The impedance mismatch is just too high. I haven't been doing this _that_
long, and I've already seen multiple cycles of outsourcing functions,
dissatisfaction with the quality, speed, and communication overhead of the
outsourced services, then bringing the functions back in-house locally. Then a
year or two passes, new directors or VPs come in, and the cycle begins again.

It's a lot of churn. One result is that I see with my enterprise customers is
that they end up with a lot of the more expensive, experienced people getting
thinned out in each of these cycles - IBM is one that is somewhat infamous for
this.

The other that I see is a death of specialization. There aren't really
dedicated network engineers, or ops specialists, or DBAs, or security experts
in most companies anymore; everybody is a short-timer that is thrown into the
mix and making things up on the fly. And these are Fortune 500 companies, not
fly-by-night SMBs.

~~~
asdfman123
Long-term institutional knowledge is criminally undervalued.

------
tempsy
I've always been irked by the assumption that more jobs = good when most
people, especially white collar workers, go to work everyday knowing that
their job is almost certainly replaceable or one that probably doesn't
actually need to exist in the first place e.g. a "bullshit job".

------
Animats
I'd been expecting "peak office". "Peak factory worker" was in the 1970s in
the US. I'd expected that, with everything being computerized, total office
employment would decline as well. Didn't happen.

Why is an interesting question.

~~~
sct202
I suspect some of is due to how amorphous the term white collar is. The BLS
has job projections, [https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/occupations-largest-job-
decli...](https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/occupations-largest-job-declines.htm)
, and they forecast large declines in admins and clerk-type office jobs that
you would expect.

The fastest growing list on the other hand, [https://www.bls.gov/ooh/fastest-
growing.htm](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/fastest-growing.htm) , has some office
jobs, but it's dominated by healthcare jobs that some of which are kind of
office-like.

There's also some weirdness, with Computer Programmer listed on the decline
list, while Software developers, applications is on the fastest growing list.

~~~
duderific
That's probably just a reflection of the job title changing, rather than the
number of jobs available. Computer Programmer is an "old-school" title while
Software Developer is more up to date.

~~~
swagtricker
If you look at the description, I believe part of the problem is that the
Bureau of Labor Statistics has always been under the delusion that "Computer
Programmers" were little more than typists who understood programming syntax.
There's an assumption that some sort of all important _DESIGN_ work was done
by analysts or other so-called experts perhaps the almighty "Software
Developer". Could it be Computer Programmers just type what they're told, and
perhaps Software Developers do the important work;)

[https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-
technology/...](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-
technology/computer-programmers.htm) [https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-
information-technology/...](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-
technology/software-developers.htm)

~~~
swagtricker
Note to my own comment: Take a look at the "What they do tab" for both titles.
You'll think that you've been transported back to 1969 in the punch card room
where yes - the lowly Computer Programmers simply write code while the
Software Developers talk to the business people and figure out what needs to
be done. While hardly writing any code themselves. It's hilarious.

~~~
opportune
Yeah I’m just gonna need you to figure out how to get our sales guy between
all these sales hubs for the lowest cost... if you could get that done by next
week that’d be great.

I’ve heard this distinction arose partly because most/many early programmers
were women, a relic from the days of the human computer

------
planetzero
The reason it didn't happen is because many white-collar jobs require a good
understanding of our culture and language, which isn't required for factory
jobs.

~~~
bumby
Can you elaborate your point? I'm curious because I've spent time in a plant
formerly shared by American/Japanese corporations concurrently

~~~
planetzero
My point is that in factory jobs, the end result is usually just to get the
job done, whatever that may be (building parts of a car, etc). As long as the
workers can understand you and you can communicate what needs to be done, it
can work.

White collar jobs usually involve more meetings, knowledge of business culture
and language. This is much more difficult to outsource to countries that don't
share any of the same culture and language.

This is also why outsourcing development jobs has been mostly a disaster for
US companies.

~~~
ghaff
>outsourcing development jobs

Outsourcing in the sense of sending to offshore body shops. Somewhat true.

But a lot of companies distribute development around the world in various
ways. It's not only about taking advantage of lower costs, but some of it is.

------
mikestew
Wow, to think it's been almost 30 years since I wasted money on _Decline and
Fall of the American Programmer_. Too bad it was the first Yourdon book I'd
read, because it was also the last.

~~~
goatinaboat
He wrote a sequel _The Rise and Resurrection Of The American Programmer_ not
that long after. Its worth checking out if you can find a copy. A real
snapshot of history and insight into the culture of the time.

~~~
chengiz
Hey he may not be a good predictor but he's a good businessman, covering both
ends of the spectrum!

------
ArtDev
Except.. it did happen.

------
bloopernova
Hey I work for Nexient. Kind of cool to be in an article in the NY Times, less
so perhaps for the ire directed at outsourcing.

I'm just a devops person. Would it be considered a majorly huge faux pas if I
mentioned any details about Nexient's careers? If so, I'll edit and remove
that previous sentence.

------
habnds
paging Mr. Yang...

------
Merrill
A good strategy is to off-shore jobs in a function that is to be eliminated.
When it comes time to close the operation down, there isn't as much mid-level
management inside the company opposing the closure. It also minimizes
community and political backlash.

