
Uber Is Going to 0, and Benchmark Knows It - mailarchis
https://thinkgrowth.org/uber-is-going-to-0-and-benchmark-knows-it-1566fb51b308
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Spivak
This article goes off the rails when it starts praising Airbnb. Most the
arguments levied against Uber could equally apply to Airbnb.

I don't really know how you start with the premise that travel isn't a race to
the bottom. If you think customers have zero loyalty toward hired cars then
you haven't dealt with travel customers. Business notwithstanding, travel a
typically a large expense in both money and time. Customers will aggressively
shop for the lowest prices and Airbnb is just one _category_ of alternative
for customers looking to travel -- BnBAir isn't even close to their biggest
threat, although the rise of meta-travel agencies does suggest that it might
be in the future.

Also, hotels list on many different travel sites. Why wouldn't AirBnB hosts?
It's basically zero cost for potentially more customers. Hell hosts would
probably be willing to list on 10+ individual sites for all it costs them.

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grokas
Yea they completely brushed over the likes of VRBO and other competitors.

I think the biggest similarity is consumer mindshare and the art of turning
your brand into a verb.

Even if I'm ordering a Lyft, in conversation I'll say I'm "ubering".

Likewise when booking an "AirBnB", I'll browse all sorts of alternative sites
just to spot check locations/prices/etc.

The real limit to the market is how many players are in the game.

Remember when Austin Texas had a fingerprinting law that prevented Uber/Lyft
from operating inside the city? There were a million and one alternative
services, but generally both drivers and riders would recommend and use one or
two based on personal experience/word of mouth recommendations. (ie- Ride with
a driver that provides a good experience and who talks about which ones he or
she uses and likes, then you will tend towards those apps rather than the
smattering of others)

In markets like these where both the buyer and seller are using a 3rd party to
accomplish a secured transaction, there seems to be only room for a few. This
generally is down to mindshare of both the buyers and sellers, which comes
down to marketing and getting your name out there.

Uber and AirBnB are in the same boat. They have the market's mindshare and
brand name recognition... and thats about it.

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treis
I think you missed the point about the local vs international services. AirBNB
has potential competitors, but effectively those competitors need to have an
international or at least national scope. AirBnB makes most of its money on
tourists that will use their service over an over again in a different city.
Most people will use something like ChicagoAirBnB.com once when they go to
Chicago for their vacation that year. Thus, ChicagoAirBnB.com would need to
make their entire customer acquisition cost back in one transaction. That's
far less viable than AirBnB which can spread it out over dozens of
transactions. AirBnB's problem (if it has one) is that there's dozens of
competitors with that scope in the online travel industry. They are just
missing the supply.

Compare with ride sharing. In that case, your business is almost entirely
local. Someone that uses ChicagoUber will likely use it for as long as they
live in Chicago. So you can spend $20 (or $100, or $200) to acquire that
customer and make it back over time. The result is that Uber has to defend
their turf against theoretically thousands of competitors across the globe.

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valuearb
Except that the Uber app works in every city and has lots of drivers in every
city. Most People aren’t going to download the app for some local company to
test if they have drivers. They know Uber works and that it will work when
they travel. Brand matters and Ubers works.

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gpsx
"Moving first is a tactic, not a goal….It’s much better to be a last mover."

That reminds me of the fact that I always find things in the last place I
look.

