
Ask HN: What are the best arguments in favor of a UBI? - liamcardenas
Hello all!<p>I am writing an article about the Universal Basic Income. I come from a libertarian background and, therefore, am naturally biased against it. My goal, however, is to represent the argument for it as fairly as possible.<p>I have done quite a bit of research on the matter already, but I wanted to know what you guys think are its best justifications. I would hate to mischaracterize it or &quot;conveniently&quot; leave out facts that are not in line with my world view.<p>I greatly appreciate the help!
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11thEarlOfMar
UBI has the potential to dramatically reduce economic desperstion. Desperation
is what drives many into crime, substance abuse and leads to failing families.
Reduce desperation, and we'll all be safer, even liberterians.

If your research has led you to hard data and proper science yielding causal
conclusions, many of us on HN are very interested in seeing it, so be sure to
include it in your paper. If not, then the discussion will remain
hypothetical. Might be best to hold out for the Swiss, Dutch, Finnish or YC
Research's own study to yield conclusive results before reaching your own
conclusions.

~~~
liamcardenas
> If your research has led you to hard data and proper science yielding causal
> conclusions, many of us on HN are very interested in seeing it, so be sure
> to include it in your paper. If not, then the discussion will remain
> hypothetical.

I certainly am not going to establish a causal relationship between UBI and a
given economic outcome! :) This article will be more hypothetical since
neither side has a particularly good empirical case (due to lack of studies).

Your appreciation for UBI must come from some sort of theoretical argument,
does it not? If so, would you be willing to change your mind if your
underlying assumptions were challenged?

P.S. My goal is _not_ to convert you or anyone else to be against UBI.

~~~
11thEarlOfMar
I don't have an argument, really. I believe that people collecting a ubi
payment would, more often than not, choose to work and not laze their life
away. The archetype for me is a family of four where the parents' only option
for employment is minimum wage jobs.

Add a ubi to that and they can then provide a much better environment for
raising their kids. I believe this would reduce the number of broken homes and
improve the outcome for the kids, reducing drug abuse and crime, and enabling
a higher level of education.

It's a theory based on personal belief. I have no conclusive evidence, only
hope at this point. These studies should provide some answers.

------
Mz
I seriously doubt you will really get the info you need from tossing this
question out there on this forum.

The people who are for the UBI tend to see the world differently from the
people who are against it. They look at the same data and draw different
conclusions.

I have written a few anti UBI pieces. I have had someone tell me "The data for
when they have tried it is all positive" or whatever. But, then they link me
to trials that I find unconvincing. If you have a UBI trial that involves just
one small town and there is intent from the start that it will have a limited
duration, you will get different human behavior than if you genuinely try to
implement some kind of guaranteed security.

Every historical attempt that I am personally familiar with where they tried
to promise universal security has failed. These historical attempts were not
called Universal Basic Income. They had names like communism -- the idea being
we would all live communally and the community came first and took care of
everyone. The result in every real world trial I know of for promising some
kind of baseline security to all members of the group is that too many people
decide to just be freeloaders and not do fuck all, since they won't starve if
they don't do a damn thing.

I have blogged about this from an anti-UBI perspective. It has not been well
received. I am not sure I am going to bother to keep blogging about it because
I am not convinced it matters. I am skeptical that it will ever actually
happen and, if it does, it will likely fail in short order, like all previous
attempts.

The only question is whether the failure will cause so much widespread harm
that I need to care or not. It might make more sense for me to just keep on
keeping on with trying to solve my own substantial personal problems that most
people don't give a fuck about, while continuing to light one small candle
where I can for helping others currently suffering due to the issues out in
the world today.

You might find better answers by either searching Hacker News for previous
discussions of the UBI or searching the web. A lot of people are for it. You
can easily find their arguments in various places and that might be more
helpful than what you are likely to get for answers here.

Best of luck.

~~~
liamcardenas
Trust me, I know exactly what you mean.

I am more concerned with more specific questions pertaining to UBI. For
instance, "Does UBI fix _____ compared to means-tested welfare?" or, most
likely what my article will be about, "Do we need UBI because robots will take
all of our jobs?"

I believe that those who favor UBI can still appreciate that a particular
argument is invalid-- although the idea as a whole may not be. Of course in
order to do this, the article must fairly represent both sides.

But yeah... I'm not trying to convert people to be against UBI. That would be
hopeless.

~~~
Mz
You might want to check my blog for past posts about this.

We faced similar issues during industrialization. The conflict led to unions
and the 40 hour work week.

Also, someone really smart has to code those robots, repair them, etc.
Automation won't fix all of that.

So, for that and various other reasons, I think the best answer here involves
A) increased average education levels and B) further lightening the burden
that paid work imposes on workers.

I think gig work done right is a big part of the answer for that. And the good
news is that we are moving towards a gig economy, so I don't need to try to
convince people to get on board with making that happen. Instead, I try to put
out the word concerning specific things that work well, why I think they work
well, how to do it, etc.

Anyway, you can check my personal blog and you are welcome to email me if you
wish. I hope the world doesn't shoot itself in the foot too much, but I think
some of the answers are already emerging. I worry less about this stuff than I
used to.

No, robots will not take all our jobs. For every person that exists, they have
needs that create the necessity of work. We need to rethink our relationship
to work. Humans have successfully done so previously. That rethinking is,
itself, work and it is a uniquely human kind of work, something robots cannot
take from us.

~~~
liamcardenas
Excellent! I have actually seen your blog on HN before. We will be in touch.

I'm not too worried about the future of the world anymore either. Even if the
there is wide adoption of UBI (or even more radical socialist ideas), it is
not likely sustainable and, in the long-run, humanity will be fine.

