

License to Print Money - rfreytag
http://www.cringely.com/2010/10/license-to-print-money/

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nhebb
I'm making a lot of assumptions here, but you could argue that the solar
panels do not need a long lifespan. What they need is a mounting framework
that has a long lifespan, including robust hardware that interconnects with
the electrical system. If the conversion efficiency of the panels will improve
every few years, the cheapest panel possible would be a better benefit, as
long as they are easily replaceable and recyclable. This would provide a more
cost effective system in the long run.

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bluedevil2k
I think your arguments ignore many of the actual economic costs of a solar
panel installation. The mounting framework is the cheapest part of the
structure. The solar panels themselves are expensive, but the major issue with
your idea to re-install them every few years would be the labor costs. It
takes a few hours and a few men to install the panels, so throwing in $1000
every 2-3 years would make this type of quick-replace plan non-cost effective.

I'm not an expert in solar panels by any stretch, but my understanding that
the two major breakthroughs we need are a) how to make the solar panels
themselves more efficient over a long life-span. Typically they lose 2-4% of
their efficiency every year, meaning 20 years down the road, they've lost 50%
of their energy power. b) a more efficient converter from the DC generated by
the solar cells to the AC we put back into the grid.

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nhebb
Let me re-iterate: _as long as they are easily replaceable_

In others words, design it with replacement by do-it-yourself homeowners in
mind. I looked up the spec for one and it was 1250x800 mm (~4x3 ft) and
weighted 12 kg (~25 lbs). That's a little awkward for one person to cart up a
ladder, but what if they were half the size and had a strap handle on the
side? What if they used quick disconnects for mounting? If you set out with
these as design goals, then I'm sure a feasible solution could be found.

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hugh3
Most people don't especially like going up on their own rooves to install
things. Some folks don't mind, but it's still a big disadvantage.

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rdtsc
But most people probably know someone who doesn't mind or who can help them do
it. In other words it doesn't have to be a $1K job for everyone.

Smaller panels can make it easy to replace gradually, acouple here, a couple
there...

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InclinedPlane
How common is it for homeowners to have a friend replace roofing tiles for
them? Such a job is as easy or easier (and cheaper in terms of materials) than
replacing solar panels.

In practice such things are not common at all, people _don't_ have friends who
will just go up on roofs and do serious work. The best you can hope for is
something as easy as installing Christmas lights (which doesn't even require
getting on the roof itself, just up to the eaves).

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rdtsc
That's the idea, it shouldn't be in the same class as replacing roofing, it
should be in the same class as repainting your shutters, or cleaning your
gutters.

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brc
Look I like the sound of this but please : get it into production! I was
reading these stories 4 years ago. They need to launch the product in a
specific niche (camping? boating?) and iterate and learn. It's like a startup
that never gets to launch.

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nihilocrat
Big, boxy datacenters would probably benefit from carpeting their roofs with
this stuff.

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joeag
Not really. Most big users of power pay incredibly low per kwhr rates (in the
US anyway). Without a realistic feed in tariff (meaning the utility buys the
power generated, not the data center) the deal won't be economic (unless the
data center agrees to pay more than grid for solar, which they won't).

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hugh3
That's fine, but a bit of mathematics...

Roof area of an average new house: maybe 100 m^2?

Peak solar flux: 1 kW/m^2

Take into account the existence of night, cloudy days, and the fact you're
probably not at the equator: divide that by four.

Efficiency of these solar cells: they have a "goal" of 10%, so let's
optimistically assume they make it.

So we're collecting, on average, 0.1 _100_ 1000/4 =2.5 kW.

Actually, y'know, when I started this calculation I was anticipating something
ridiculously small, but that's a not-insignificant fraction of your usage. Am
I missing a factor somewhere?

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davidj
the numbers work out pretty well when you disregard the reality . Only in
fantasy land the sun is always at peak, technology that claims to be 10%
efficient is actually 10%, DC-AC conversion and storage is 100% efficient, and
if you disregard the government subsidies and the energy needed to
manufacture.

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bsk
Do you work at BP or Exxon Mobil? :D

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pjscott
I know you're joking, but a big problem in discussing energy sources is that a
lot of people assume that anybody who tries to explain the difficult
engineering issues must be a paid shill for a big energy company. It's kind of
irritating, even if it is both false and an _ad hominem_ fallacy.

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ph0rque
_Flexible plastic solar cells will go everywhere the sun shines, produced in
long rolls, covering roofs and even windows (the cells can be made
transparent)._

How would transparent solar cells work? Would the light coming in be part of
the <90% of the light not being converted to electricity?

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mseebach
I don't _know_ , but presumably the solar cells would primarily absorb light
from the invisible part of the spectrum, ie. infrared. Your cats are going to
hate you for it, though (no more hot spots in the sun..).

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ph0rque
Thankfully I don't have cats :~)... however, that does bring up a good point
about some of the sunlight being converted to electricity instead of heating
your house passively.

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CognitiveLens
Sounds great, except for the fact that every inch of this stuff will be in a
landfill after 10 years of use, where it will essentially never break down,
and likely leach whatever exotic compounds it uses into the soil/water,
trading one form of pollution for another.

It seems like a "disposable society" solution to solar power, and I'm not
convinced unless it comes with a clear recycling program.

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jerf
In light of zeteo's comment, could you take a moment to actually research your
naysaying before you go all NIMBY on the technology? How many environmentally-
sensible technologies must we sacrifice at the hands of people who think they
are environmentalists but are actually just unthinking naysayers? (Perhaps you
won't mind if we replace them with thorium reactors?)

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Zaak
I agree. Let's replace all unthinking naysayers with thorium reactors.

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eru
Liquid thorium reactors.

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davidj
Solar is a scam. Every solar technology advancement turns out to be a lie. I'm
willing to bet money that this technology will never actually work or if it
does will cost 100x and be 1/100 as efficent as they say it will be.
(reference: nano solar, or any solar company since the 70s) Commence the down
voting.

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eru
Solar worked fine on my pocket calculator.

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davidj
your pocket calculator uses solar technology that was invented 40-50 years
ago, and my point is the technology hasn't advanced a lot since then.

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eru
Thanks. That sounds more reasonable than your original comment.

