
Ask HN: How will the world change post pandemic? - zarkov99
What do HN members think will be the major short, medium and long term changes coming out of this? What are some good essays on the matter?
======
talmr
I'm hoping that people will be eager to go back to the norm of going out and
about.

I'm really not that keen of living in a future where a majority of people stay
at home or use InstaCart to order groceries. That is just lame, and frankly I
don't want that. We are social animals and we need to get back asap.

Long term I think that we will shift more towards self-sustenance. For the
most part, people are listening to the authorities and I'm wondering if this
will lead to a rise in CIVIC nationalism. This is the first time in my life
that I've seen people actually work together for the greater good. I live in
California and yeah it is a bubble here, but that's my experience.

------
zarkov99
I think a few things will change, at least for a while. I think there will be
a shift towards remote work of all sorts, likely with an accompanied
improvement in tele-presence tech. Maybe VR will benefit from this tail-wind.
I think some types of business, like restaurants, gyms, theaters, professional
sports will be hurting for a long time. I think there will be a backlash
against globalization though I have my doubts that it will produce anything
more than campaign slogans. I think there will be an exodus from great
metropolis, particularly from NY, particularly from families. I think many
people will burrow in: invest in improving their homes, prep, travel less,
focus on their local communities.

~~~
greenyoda
> I think some types of business, like restaurants, gyms, theaters,
> professional sports will be hurting for a long time.

There's another place where people are packed ever closer together: air
travel. I think there will be a significant long-term decline in at least
vacation air travel, and possibly a somewhat lesser decline in business
travel. As a result of this, the hotel and tourism industries will also take a
bit hit (including Airbnb). The cruise ship industry may take even longer to
recover.

NYC will be particularly badly hit by this, since we get a huge percentage of
our income from tourism.

~~~
AnimalMuppet
> There's another place where people are packed ever closer together: air
> travel.

Maybe one result will be to increase the seat pitch, then. (Hey, a guy can
dream...)

------
rawgabbit
Anti-Globalization/Nationalism will re-emerge. Countries such as Japan are
subsidizing moving factories out of China and back to their own country.

Remote Delivery is the new paradigm. Instacart and Doordash delivery services
to your door is the new normal. If you can afford it, why take a chance going
to the grocery store only to get infected?

Political division and tribalism will accelerate. As more people are being
cocooned in their homes and reading/listening only to their partisan news
channel of choice, identity politics will become even more vicious.

~~~
zarkov99
I really hope you are wrong on this last one but the way the virus is being so
disgustingly politicized leads me to believe you might be right.

------
zhengiszen
Human beings are prone to forget... even the most traumatic experience...

~~~
greenyoda
If someone's relatives or friends die, they're not likely to forget it for a
long time. If someone comes close to death themselves, they're not likely to
forget that either.

~~~
easytiger
That happens every day. Covid-19 or not.

------
sixQuarks
Mullets will make a comeback as a hairstyle, since we can't reach the back of
our head when we're self cutting.

~~~
perilunar
You can with clippers. I expect we'll see more buzz cuts.

------
Giorgi
I think governments will be more quick to act and close down borders if virus
breaks up somewhere else. Other than that - nothing much.

~~~
easytiger
Or perhaps we will learn that the reaction to this was grossly over egged and
completely unnecessary

~~~
zarkov99
Why would you say that? NY, Italy, Spain suffered horrifically, do you think
the reaction was exaggerated there?

------
htk
At first I thought people would be in general more afraid of debt, as the
world could stop spinning at any moment but payments still had to be made.
However, now with all these government aids it might point to the other
direction as in “if the economy stops I know the government is going to give
me a hand”.

~~~
sixQuarks
If by "people" you mean corporations, then yes. But actual working people who
don't have enough money to buy food and are waiting months for a one-time
$1,200 check... I don't think so.

------
agustif
Probably not much? We humans are pretty easy to fall twice in a same rock.

------
joshlk
I think this could be a turing point in tackling climate change. People will
be more aware of how impending existential crises are real and can have an
effect on our daily lives.

~~~
zarkov99
I doubt it. Just like nothing was done until the virus started killing people
not will be done until climate change starts to really kick in.

------
patatino
Humans are great in adapting to different environments, which is great for
survival, but in this case, not so great because when we are back to normal,
we will remember it as "wasn't too bad, next time we will be prepared" and
move on.

------
aaron695
I'd hope vanity projects like recycling and global warming are forgotten and
we work together like in the post WWII era and dream of building a futuristic
society again.

But, short term we will realise RL is better than digital life. There will be
a backlash to digital while at the same time having integrated it into our
lives even more. So a mixed model will come out.

Medium term: Nationalism has been accelerated and developing countries are 5
years poorer.

IE: China hate has now been legitimized, they are the new Russia along with
Russia is the new Russia as we realise they also hurt us in this crisis.
Elections might be funny to mess with, pandemics is more war like.

C19 doesn't allow us to see the future anymore than before. So long term is
unknown as always.

------
Ghjklov
As an Asian male, dating prospects in the US for us weren't ever good anyway,
but this pandemic may be the death sentence/nail in the coffin for us.

------
Jemaclus
I think society will remain largely the same on the surface. Underneath, we'll
see some interesting changes from an American perspective. Here are a few off
the top of my head:

1\. The Cat's Out of the Bag

\- So many things can't really be taken back. The myth of "you need to be in
the office" is destroyed. There are benefits to being in the office, but many
people are continuing their jobs as normal -- and perhaps even performing
better! We'll see a shift in the workforce as remote working becomes more
palatable and almost a necessity going forward. This will have more subtle
ramifications on the global economy as jobs no longer need to be local to be
acquired. (To be clear, most businesses will force their employees to come
into the office, but the WFH option is going to be much more attractive after
this, and successful businesses will have to adjust.) Because of this, we may
see companies eliminate physical offices altogether, and there might be a
small decline in corporate real estate. I don't really think this last bit
will happen, but it will be interesting to find out.

\- Movie distributors have started to allow "in-theater" movies to be streamed
via Apple TV, Amazon Prime, and Google Play. It's 20 bucks for a movie, which
is expensive for a digital rental, but it's far cheaper than going to a
theater. Those of us who only went to theaters for big releases might still
go, but we'll see a shift in people staying home with their families and
friends watch a $20 movie and free(ish) popcorn and candy on a giant TV
screen, rather than spending $50+ just to see a movie in theaters. The
physical movie theater experience will have to shift to something more
special, like Alamo Drafthouse or something along those lines.

\- In the education space, most parts of the United States have the concept of
"snow days", which are days in the calendar that are provided in case of
weather-related emergencies such as hurricanes or snow, where schools have to
be shut down or are otherwise inaccessible. The cat's out of the bag on this
one. No more snow days. Your classes will be taught virtually. If your local
schools don't do virtual classes now, you can bet they'll be preparing those
for the 2021-2022 school year and beyond. This may or may not have
ramifications for the idea of "school districts" as well. Private schools may
go virtual. Homeschooling rates may skyrocket. Not sure what exactly to expect
here, but at the very least, snow days are over.

2\. Industries and Businesses

\- Whoever cracks the code on virtual socialization will make billions. Zoom
and Skype are designed for businesses: 1 person talks and the rest listen.
They don't work for groups socializing or party atmospheres. Whoever can
figure out how to make that work... well, let's just say I wish I were them.

\- Along those lines, virtual entertainment will skyrocket. Virtual board
games, "pub crawls", movie nights, you name it.

\- Just as a lot of companies in the software development industry have
pivoted to "mobile first" development, we'll see businesses and restaurants
rethink their business models to be "delivery prepared". Gourmet restaurants
will have to come up with cheaper delivery menus. Who's going to pay $40 for
three pieces of ravioli with caviar on top to be delivered to their house?
Nobody. But we will pay $40 for a good pizza, some garlic bread, and maybe
some wings. BYOB, of course. Bookstores, shoe stores, board game stores, vinyl
record stores, Gap, West Elm, IKEA, and any other store that relies on foot
traffic will have to come up with backup plans in case foot traffic
disappears. If they can't do this, they'll go out of business. Worse than
that, many of those kinds of businesses will just never have newcomers because
it may be too difficult or expensive to have a backup plan. (Gamestop, for
example.)

\- Just because we can start going back to work in July doesn't mean this is
all over. We'll still need to social distance on some level, wash our hands
constantly, wear masks, and be careful. Concerts, airplanes, bars, gyms, and
other places where people get tightly packed in will have to have alternative
business models to survive in that new reality. Not only that, but for the
near term there will still be fear of those places. How do they cope when
people are afraid to come to a concert? How many people can you fit into a bar
on Super Bowl Sunday and still maintain some semblance of social distance?
Long term? They'll probably go back to normal. But for the short-to-medium
term, there will be a number of changes there.

3\. Social, Economic, and Legal Change

\- It is highly likely that we will lose protections out of fear, just like we
did post-9/11 with the PATRIOT Act. Things that seem innocuous and necessary
on the surface, but over the long term have devastating consequences. States,
counties, cities, and other municipalities now have precedent for ordering
everyone to stay at home. Not quite martial law, but close enough that the
slippery slope has started. I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist, but I can
see governments shutting down businesses or venues for "reasons" that may or
may not be true.

\- Divorces and breakups will go up in the short term, as people are cooped up
together in ways that they never had been before. There will be a ton of
babies in 7-10 months. Population demographics will change.

\- The recession will have longer lasting financial impacts in certain
sectors. I'm not an economist, so I can't go into much detail here, but
housing prices, imports/exports, transportation, and hospitality downturns
will have ripple effects across everything else. We might see investments
diversify even further into new sectors, or maybe double down on tech. Who
knows?

\- Hospitals will (hopefully) be better staffed, especially with emergency
equipment like ventilators. On the flip side, ERs will be overwhelmed for the
short-to-midterm future, with patients flooding it out of fear that their
cough might be coronavirus or whatever the next big pandemic will be. This
will have an impact on city budgets, tax revenues, and more.

\- The FDA, OSHA, and other health and safety organizations will introduce new
regulations designed to prevent the spread of another pandemic. More red tape.
Maybe it's worth it, maybe not, but it will almost certainly happen.

\- The unemployment numbers will cause a shift in the country's economy. A lot
of these people won't have jobs to go back to, so entire sectors of industry
might disappear overnight, and others might shoot up out of nowhere. The gig
economy will see a boost in the short-term.

\- Social programs like unemployment insurance, universal basic income, and
some flavor of Medicare for All will become immensely popular, even more so
than now. I'm not confident that anything progressive will come out of it in
our current political climate, but we'll almost certain see public support for
these things increase to new levels.

\- Not a prediction, but I'm a little curious as to how (or if!) the anti-vaxx
movement changes as we emerge from this pandemic.

I can think of a few others, but I'll leave it there for now. To sum it up: in
the short term, the changes will be drastic, medium-term things will be rocky,
and long term things will largely return to normal but the fundamentals
shifted with long-lasting but subtle (or not) implications. Most Americans'
day-to-day life won't appear to be that different in a year.

~~~
brianwawok
Long post so won’t comment on all of it. Many could happen.

Disagree on WFH change though. Many of us have had WFH power for a long time.
A huge percent of tech workers use laptops and have the raw tech to WFH. A lot
of developers (like me) still enjoy having an office to collaborate in. A lot
of business owners (like me) will continue to require in office employees when
this is over.

This isn’t like some shock that proved to us how good WFH is. I have worked
years of my life remote. I know the pros and I know the cons. I will continue
to have a local office and hire local developers.

~~~
Jemaclus
I agree with all of that, honestly. What I think is going to change is the
belief by the company that WFH is undesirable. Most companies, even those that
allow remote work, would prefer that everyone be in the office. There are tons
of companies (my own included) that discouraged WFH policies, but given that
we've been 100% remote for the last 3-4 weeks and the sky hasn't fallen, I can
see a lot of companies (and a lot of employees!) warming up to the idea that
WFH is not only palatable, but even a good idea and a nice perk for attracting
new employees. My company would never have allowed this many people to WFH in
a pre-COVID world, but I can definitely see that changing in the future.

Yes, there are very good reasons that people can and should work in an office.
Absolutely. I 100% agree with you. But I think that businesses will start to
realize that there are just as good alternatives to a lot of those reasons --
and especially if, as I mentioned, someone can crack the virtual social
problem. If it's as easy to hop on a video call and sort something out
(virtual whiteboarding?!) in a minute or two, then that's just as, if not
more, efficient than being in an office. If we can virtually socialize
similarly to how we do in an office, have water cooler moments similarly, hold
meetings similarly... then a lot of those reasons fall away.

To be clear, I'm not saying that businesses will move to 100% remote. That's
obviously not going to happen no matter what for 99% of companies. But I think
the _idea_ of WFH is going to become much, much, much more palatable and
desirable to both companies and employees out of this.

~~~
bruce511
Be careful what you wish for. Once an employer discovers your job can be done
remotely, it's only a small step to discover it can be done cheaper by someone
living somewhere else...

Of course some jobs are a hybrid, where you only come to the office a couple
times a week (which then limits the savings to the business anyway) but for
the genuine 100‰ work from home expect serious job insecurity.

Live in LA? Wfh to beat the traffic? Well someone living in Ohio,or elsewhere
can do the same work for less money. Live in Ohio? There's someone in Canada
that can do it for less...

~~~
Jemaclus
I think that's the future, whether we want it or not... We've already been
seeing that with respect to call centers and outsourcing tech stuff for
decades. It's only a matter of time before we become a truly globalized
economy where any white-collar job can be done regardless of location.

I think a more interesting dynamic that would arise out of this is how
compensation works. Right now, someone in San Francisco makes a bajillion
times what someone doing the same work in Kalamazoo makes. If businesses can
seamlessly hire someone in Kalamazoo for a fraction of the price, why wouldn't
they? They would! and should! But then what happens to the person in the San
Francisco Bay Area? Not just the person, but what happens to the entire area?

Will all the techies in SF start moving to cheaper places to live? Or will
they try and stay in SF? What will happen to housing prices or food prices?
Will gentrification start reversing itself?

This sort of leads into an off-topic conversation, but I'll mention it because
I'm personally fascinated by it. Right now, I get paid X dollars per year
because the business has decided that I generate more than that in revenue
somehow, and some value of that $X is due to my geographic location (San
Francisco). If I were able to work remotely and then decide I don't want to
live in SF any longer and move to, say, Jackson, Mississippi, then what would
happen to my pay? The company would likely try and cut my pay as a "cost of
living" adjustment. But that's absurd, right? I was worth X dollars/yr in SF,
and I'm still worth X dollars/yr regardless of whether I'm in an office in SF
or in a cabin in Alaska or a coffeeshop in Vietnam.

I have counterparts in an office on the other side of the country that make
half what I make for the same work, all because they live in a particular
geographic area. But that's dumb. We generate the same amount of revenue from
the company (theoretically) regardless of our geographic area. But because
they live in a place with a lower COL, they get paid less and the company
makes more off of them. The whole idea is absurd in a number of levels.

I digress, but to turn this back to your point: if this suddenly _does_
happen, what happens to "COL adjustments"? Are they still a thing?

Wouldn't I be able to say that I'm worth X dollars whether I'm based in Iowa
City vs NYC? Wouldn't everyone be able to do that? Is it a foregone conclusion
that it's a race to the bottom, or would wages and jobs stabilize into some
sort of equilibrium? Maybe $500k salaries go away, but they wouldn't
necessarily fall down to $50k salaries, and in fact might stabilize somewhere
closer to $150k, and that's more than enough for most people in the USA to
live decently. (I made up those numbers totally out of my ass, but it's the
point that matters, not the numbers.)

Anyway... interesting things to think about.

------
nscalf
A few items I've been thinking about that come to mind at the moment: *
Companies will see the benefit of WFH, and some significant portion of them
will make that a long running option (performance pending), some smaller
percentage will 100% make the leap

* A significant amount of individuals will demand WFH options for their current/future companies

* Companies will view the strategic vulnerability that is centralized manufacturing in China, and a large portion of companies will diversify, even at higher cost

* Assuming we get a vaccine in 12 months, vaccine development will likely take a higher percentage of medical research funding. Previous iterations of vaccines took 5+ years to make, so if the cost and effectiveness of mapping the genome so quickly have really had such a large impact, this will be a more utilized tool in our toolbelt.

* (US) Some portion of individuals will spend a long time out of the work force intentionally, due to the increase in unemployment benefits. This will drive up the effective minimum wage, and may well pave the way to a true minimum wage increase depending on how the next election goes.

* (JP) We might see a shift in work/life balance amongst the Japanese

* (Globally) I think there is a good chance that, on the other end of the, the WHO has large scale changes following investigations.

* (US) There seems to be an increasingly likely chance that the president loses support come election time, but there is also an increasingly likely chance that our elections have some degree of fraudulence to them (voter suppression for instance).

* (US) The president has already taken many large power grabs in the wake of this pandemic, removing the oversights for the 2 Trillion stimulus bill, removing supplies from states that are blue and giving them to states that are red, etc. You can argue whatever you like about this, but whatever your politics are it's abuse of power in the open. Get out and vote.

~~~
robk
You had me until you got to the president paranoia.

