
Netflix Lands the Coen Brothers’ Western TV Series - janober
https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/09/netflix-lands-the-coen-brothers-western-tv-series
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aresant
Netflix is such an interesting business.

They have far and away the broadest streaming distribution (75% of it!) in the
USA (1) which is a market that already 53% saturated.

And the bull case guys point to international subscription growth - which is
still in its infancy - as the reason to hold Netflix forever. (2)

They have much lower infrastructure costs then the previous cable providers
without having to build the pipes.

But they also don't benefit from the built in government / monopoly
protections that came with that investment in the distribution platform.

So in terms of long game how do they protect themselves?

Own the content.

Disney pulling their rug out earlier this week underscores how fucked Netflix
is as just a distributor.

So if, in the end, distribution becomes the new "dumb pipes" at what point do
the content providers pull the judo flip and control the distribution and the
margin?

Disney again, case in point.

So do we underwrite Netflix's future - aka their current 227 PE! - in their
ability to execute on the content side?

(1) [https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/10/netflix-reaches-75-of-
u-s-...](https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/10/netflix-reaches-75-of-u-s-
streaming-service-viewers-but-youtube-is-catching-up/)

(2) [https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/08/buy-netflix-because-its-
inte...](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/08/buy-netflix-because-its-
international-subs-will-nearly-double-piper.html)

~~~
danso
I remember me and others, on HN years ago, complaining about how Netflix was
investing too much money into TV and original TV while skimping on its
streaming movie catalog (this was around the time its STARZ deal was ending).
Turns out their strategy was exactly right. I like watching movies, but
nothing gets my return visits like serial TV, such as "Breaking Bad" and
"Walking Dead". Investing so much money into "House of Cards" seemed bizarre 5
years ago but now that Netflix has so much exclusive content, it's hard as a
longtime subscriber to just quit it. even as someone who now subscribes to
Amazon Prime and HBO. I actually like Amazon Prime's library, which can be
augmented with content I buy from Amazon separately, enough to quit Netflix.
But my parents really like the Netflix shows (and I'll admit to binge watching
HoC, as shallow as it is), which is something Prime or HBO will never have.

edit: besides the Netflix-conceived shows, e.g. HoC and "Narcos", there are
the Netflix-bought shows, such as Arrested Development and Black Mirror, and
what seems like countless comedy specials, such as Louis CK 2017. Back when I
thought HoC was a poor investment, I was thinking that one really great show a
year wouldn't be enough to keep me subscribing year after year. But Netflix
seems to be introducing exclusive content several times a month.

~~~
icebraining
Sorry for the OT, but in trying to find out more about the origins of Narcos,
I found out it's directed by José Padilha. No wonder it's good. His _Bus 174_
was one of the films that most shook me.

~~~
danso
Never watched Bus 174, but my first experience with Padilha's work was "Elite
Squad" [0], which coincidentally, I watched via Netflix's DVD rental service.
And less coincidentally, had the same lead (Wagner Moura) as "Narcos".

[0]
[http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0861739/](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0861739/)

~~~
icebraining
Oh, I didn't remember the lead. I liked Elite Squad, but it emphasized more
the "action movie" and less the "harrowing portrayal of a real social
quagmire". Then again, Bus 174 is a documentary, even if it has plenty of
tension, so that's to be expected.

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11thEarlOfMar
I'll say what others are likely thinking...

The Coen brothers hold a special place in my heart. So, so glad to see them
headed to Netflix!

~~~
timdellinger
I'm basically going to see anything that they make... they're earned that from
me.

Part of me wishes that I could just get a $250 "lifetime subscription" to
everything they do... they get the money up front. It's not clear to me how
they would go about using the money in the current system... maybe they could
negotiate for a greater share of the proceeds if they bring financing money to
the table; maybe that would make it easier for financiers to say yes. (yup, i
said proceeds, not profits, since i'm aware of hollywood accounting). maybe
something through patreon might work for this.

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askvictor
The fragmentation of the streaming market keeps me from using it; I'd happily
pay $x per episode/movie (and do on Google play where the content is there).
But I'm not going to subscribe to a streaming service just for one series that
I want. I'm curious about the concept of brand loyalty to content producers
(Disney being the example here) - do people really think "I'd like to see a
Disney movie tonight" or do they just want to see a particular movie or genre?
I'm sure there's some brand loyalty for Hugh quality (HBO) or specific
interest, but am curious how far this goes.

~~~
danudey
> do people really think "I'd like to see a Disney movie tonight" or do they
> just want to see a particular movie or genre?

I don't think it's so much "Let's go see what's on the Disney tonight", and
more a question of requirements.

I have a son, who is going to turn 3. There's a decent chance that, within a
few years, we're going to need on-demand access to Disney content, even if
that means paying like $10/mo that we weren't paying before. If he gets hooked
on e.g. Frozen and insists on watching it 10 times a day when we're stuck
inside due to weather, then that ten bucks is going to pay for itself pretty
quickly.

On the other hand, the other example I think of is the new Ducktales. Before
this news, I was wondering: will it be on iTunes? Netflix? Streaming online
through some other service? Will I have to torrent it if I want to see it in
Canada without paying for a $80/mo cable package and a DVR (fuck you HBO)?

Now, if Disney is launching their own streaming service, there's a good chance
that this simplifies the answers. If this streaming service launches in Canada
in the first place, then there's a decent chance I can see new episodes there,
and if so, there's a decent chance that I can see them day-of, or possibly
real-time.

The idea of a streaming service where my kid can sit down when it's time for
his favourite cartoon to be on and actually watch it, rather than having to
wait for daddy to torrent it for him, is fantastic, and I'll pay $10/mo for
that.

~~~
nebabyte
> If he gets hooked on e.g. Frozen and insists on watching it 10 times a day
> when we're stuck inside due to weather, then that ten bucks is going to pay
> for itself pretty quickly.

Or y'know, just shell out $10 for the dvd which you can probably sell for the
same price once he outgrows it

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maxxxxx
It's nice to be in a position of power. For unknown directors it would be
"Coen Brothers land Netflix series" not "Netflix lands Cone Brothers serirs".

------
what_ever
<removed>

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learc83
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~~~
what_ever
Thanks.

