
Coronavirus Real Time Map - ranadeep
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
======
lysp
Found this report circulating on twitter from a junior doctor in Australia.

[https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v...](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1.full.pdf)

Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters
and epidemic predictions

> Key findings:

> ● We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (𝑅𝑅0) to be
> significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0,
> indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control
> measures for infections to stop increasing.

> ● We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are
> identified, indicating a large number of infections in the community, and
> also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease.
> Surveillance for this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by
> public health authorities in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the
> speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas.

> ● If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further
> outbreaks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will
> continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate.
> In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of
> infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 190 thousand (prediction
> interval, 132,751 to 273,649). We predict the cities with the largest
> outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing
> and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or special
> administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air
> travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.

> ● Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are
> unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99%
> effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may
> only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February.

> ● There are important caveats to the reliability of our model predictions,
> based on the assumptions underpinning the model as well as the data used to
> fit the model. These should be considered when interpreting our findings.

Source:

[https://twitter.com/char_durand/status/1221997021663387649](https://twitter.com/char_durand/status/1221997021663387649)

~~~
yakshaving_jgt
Western news media are currently reporting ~100 dead and ~4,500 infected
(though that number is surely much higher in reality). This is a ~2% mortality
rate.

Can we naïvely extrapolate that we expect ~4,000 casualties from ~190,000
infections?

I'm not good at understanding numbers, but I'm sure someone here can chime in
with a better way to read this.

~~~
jerf
You can naively extrapolate that, but it will be, well, a naive extrapolation.
Not necessarily a bad thing, but it won't necessarily be accurate. If the
virus does get into, say, the US, but it happens to only infect 20-40 year-
olds through office transmission, it probably won't even be that fatal. If it
happens to get into a senior home, it could be a great deal more deadly.

And that's before we consider the spoiler of mutations, which is the real
problem. In the long term, it is evolutionarily advantageous for the virus to
become less lethal and eventually fade into the background as just another
cold, if it isn't wiped out by aggressive quarantining. However, in the short
term, many of the same things that will make it more transmissible, such as
more effectively converting host systems into virus factories, or
contrariwise, being more effectively hidden while still being contagious, will
also make it more dangerous to the host and/or society.

But for all that, there is a sense in which the "naive extrapolation" is also
the best thing we have right now based on available data. It is, at least,
data-driven.

------
chrononaut
One minor note is that the "real time" nature of this map is a bit deceiving
at the moment, at least to me. While the specific figures imply that it's
pulling data at a near real-time basis, it's still dependent on countries
posting the latest figures in batch, and then being updated as last indicated
in the top right. As of now, it seems verbal announcements precede the digital
announcements and as such I've found journalist-maintained maps to be a bit
more up to date with the latest announcements, such as the one maintained by
the NYTimes. Although if this continues to spread to different demographics,
this map will probably have much higher utility.

~~~
contingencies
Absolutely. It's marketing bullshit. Nobody has current figures.

In fact, multiple specialist academics said ~3 days ago that only 5% of cases
are confirmed, now may be less due to reports of equipment shortages, the
additional time the virus has had to disperse geographically, and Chinese New
Year. Therefore, we can multiply any official figures by 20x. Official figures
are nearing 5,000 cases, which extrapolating from those estimates means we're
at around 100,000 infections as of today.

Source: I wrote and am maintaining an animated map of the domestic spread (the
one on Wikipedia), over here: [https://github.com/globalcitizen/2019-wuhan-
coronavirus-data...](https://github.com/globalcitizen/2019-wuhan-coronavirus-
data/) .. powered by two scrapers, main one is from DXY, which is ahead of
this 'real time' map by many hours, judging by total figures.

~~~
infinity0
The exponential growth always slows at some point, so unconditionally
multiplying by 20 is unrealistic.

~~~
scottLobster
If you're suggesting the virus is approaching population saturation levels in
Wuhan, then 20 is far too low a number

~~~
infinity0
Why are you assuming that epidemics only stop growing exponentially when they
reach population saturation? That is not the case for all the recent
respiratory epidemics.

Even if they do, why is 20 a "low" number? They are talking about estimating
the current real figure, from the current laboratory-confirmed figure. 20
seems pretty reasonable if a little high, assuming the epidemic is indeed
still in the exponential phase.

------
tsukurimashou
I get:

Fatal Errors

Unable to load
[https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/sharing/rest/content/item...](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/sharing/rest/content/items/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6/data?f=json)
status: 502

d@[https://js.arcgis.com/3.31/init.js:112:340](https://js.arcgis.com/3.31/init.js:112:340)
d@[https://js.arcgis.com/3.31/init.js:140:425](https://js.arcgis.com/3.31/init.js:140:425)
f@[https://js.arcgis.com/3.31/init.js:145:35](https://js.arcgis.com/3.31/init.js:145:35)

Maybe the load is a bit too heavy for the app at the moment

EDIT: after a few attempts I was able to load the map, it is nicely done!

~~~
tictok4
You probably have refer disabled or spoofed. "Fix" that and it may work

~~~
tsukurimashou
yeah no it was just load, otherwise it would not work randomly like that

------
lgl
If this whistleblower [0] is to be believed, then the Chinese may be
downplaying this

[0] -
[https://twitter.com/Terrence_STR/status/1221100970521829377](https://twitter.com/Terrence_STR/status/1221100970521829377)

~~~
NhanHo
As much as I believe in the Chinese gov fudging the numbers, there is no way
for a line medical workers to know or even estimates the true numbers at the
scale of ten thousands patients.

------
kscriby
For those who want something a little more mobile-friendly, we just built a
similar map over the weekend:
[https://coronavirus.app/](https://coronavirus.app/)

~~~
ShorsHammer
Completely offtopic: I'm really impressed that I can get the basic mapping
with all javascript turned off. Kudos for that. Half the pages you visit these
days can't even show text or pictures without js.

~~~
clort
Um.. I had to enable scripts from jsdelivr.net to get past a blank screen?

~~~
ShorsHammer
Yep, seems you are correct, noscript shows it being blocked but I had the 3rd
party scripts from [https://cdn.jsdelivr.com/](https://cdn.jsdelivr.com/)
whitelisted. Thought it might have simply been a splash page.

------
maayank
Someone who is more versed in the usual statistics, how serious is it? Without
domain knowledge, I have no idea if the few dozen deaths in this period at
these locations is significant or not.

~~~
akmarinov
Deaths are mostly among immunocompromised, elderly or very young. Chances are
you're going to be fine, if you get it, but it'll be a long and painful 2
weeks. The youngest adult that died was 34.

That said with a mortality rate of 2%, affecting a country like China with 1.4
billion people, even if half the people get infected, that's 14 million dead.

So overall serious on a large scale.

~~~
ohitsdom
> even if half the people get infected

You say "even" as if it's a conservative estimate, but to me 50% of the
country's population being infected by the same virus sounds extreme. Wouldn't
this be on the extreme side?

~~~
gdfasfklshg4
It seems to be as infectious as a cold. So no.

~~~
xdarnold
This is incorrect.

If we assume that this virus is as infectious as the common cold, we can
expect the infection rate within a household to be approximately 25% of
contacts. That means that of the people you LIVE with, 25% will catch it from
you.

50% infection rate in a large, distributed population like China would be very
extreme.

~~~
gdfasfklshg4
I never said 50% of the population have the same cold at once. 50% catching it
over a 6 month period is very reasonable.

~~~
xdarnold
Over any time frame, it's still quite extreme. To use influenza as a proxy,
which has virulence comparable to the cold, the yearly incidence rate in China
is <35 per 100,000. Even if this is a full 100x worse, we aren't even getting
close to 50% infection rate over the season or a 6 month time frame.

~~~
xdarnold
Replying myself to add reference, here:

[https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30354-6/pdf](https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712\(19\)30354-6/pdf)

This is all well understood, and studied in considerable depth.

The media overreaction is typical, but here at HN we are better than that and
we should strive to rely on established science (where available). No need to
throw out extreme or unreasonable numbers!

~~~
gdfasfklshg4
See my other comment. I was comparing to one of the viruses that causes a COLD
not influenza.

Colds are quite different to flues.

~~~
xdarnold
Of course in many ways they are different, but not in the important ones for
this discussion.

I used influenza because it was convenient in terms of available research, I
could grab in a minute or two, but I'm sure if you care to look you can find
similar data for rhinovirus.

Rhinovirus and influenza have very comparable R0's. R0 is the epidemiological
measure of the "contagion" factor of a pathogen.

------
seren
Given the distribution in China, it looks like it is not going to be contained
in Wuhan, even with a quarantine.

~~~
bangboombang
Yeah. I mean as a Plague, Inc. player I have to give kudos to this virus.
Having the outbreak shortly before the spring festival is genius, the travel
ban for Wuhan came so late that many people already traveled to all over the
country to meet their families, greatly helping the spread.

I'm staying inside for now...

~~~
aYsY4dDQ2NrcNzA
[https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2020/01/plague-inc-maker-
dont...](https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2020/01/plague-inc-maker-dont-use-our-
game-for-coronavirus-modeling/)

------
BiasRegularizer
Baidu's realtime map has a higher count this, though in Chinese. It seems to
be more up to date, with detailed patient info sometimes included in the news
tab.

[https://voice.baidu.com/act/newpneumonia/newpneumonia](https://voice.baidu.com/act/newpneumonia/newpneumonia)

------
dazhbog
I also use this that has a slightly more up to date numbers.
[https://jobtube.cn/wv/](https://jobtube.cn/wv/)

------
brylie
Please don't use circle radius for indicating the number of observations. It
is really easy to confuse the circle radius with the geographic extent of the
observations, when in reality they are likely more tightly clustered.

Rather, consider using a heatmap to show the proportional density of
observations in a way that better highlights their geographic distribution.

------
obilgic
This looks a lot more serious compared to a week ago.

~~~
ShorsHammer
People who are actually concerned at this stage while ignoring the scientists
who say there's no proof it's serious are prime examples of the types who get
worked up by the media hypetrain and should be actively avoided. It's a harsh
assessment but honestly think it's the case.

The media sell stories. People click on those stories, the stories that get
clicked on most get other stories written on the topic. This is how the
industry works. It's actually quite a simple model.

Human beings are fucking terrible at risk assessment. What do people here
think the risk is for them of dying of coronavirus compared to say dying in a
traffic accident? Which is more likely to happen to you by a few magnitudes?

~~~
swader999
China just shut down 15 cities and 2 provinces with nearly 80 million people
and put men with guns in nbc suits at all the exits,shut down the
internet,stop all travel and extend public holidays Im sure its perfectly
harmless

~~~
theseadroid
Please cite the source of shutting down the internet. As a Chinese, as far as
I read only physical movement are prohibited. Many people stay at home play
online games now.

------
dogma1138
Nextstrain has a better visualization
[https://nextstrain.org/ncov](https://nextstrain.org/ncov)

------
scw
The methodological approach and data sources are detailed in the associated
post by JHU professor Lauren Gardner:
[https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-
health/ncov/](https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/)

------
growlist
Nice to see some Esri-powered apps getting some exposure.

------
shadowgovt
If these stats hold, the disease looks to have a mortality of around 2%.

Doesn't sound like a lot, but an R0 of >2 is concerning because of what it
means for total infected. 2% of everyone within range of access to modern
transportation is an _awful_ lot of people.

~~~
theseadroid
The problem is not many patients who have contracted the virus have released
from hospital yet. Any there are many serious cases. From many Chinese sources
such as [1], Chinese gov's data shows there are 4515 confirmed cases, 106
deaths, 976 in critical conditions, recovered and discharged only 60 cases. So
I'm not sure how we should calculate mortality rate right now.

1\. [https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-
news-51276067](https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-51276067)

------
adhoc32
So based on the outcome so far (107 deaths, 63 fully recovered) the survival
rate is 37%?

~~~
christkv
Patients outside of China do not seem to have serious illness so far.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/euvexx/current_s...](https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/euvexx/current_status_of_outsidechina_patients/)

But there are two few confirmed cases to understand the mortality rate. Might
be there are additional factors unique to China that is causing a higher death
rate.

~~~
takeda
Or the higher death rate in China could be due to them concealing the real
number of infected people.

------
GistNoesis
Does it display potentially infected planes and boats like in Plague Inc yet ?

------
joncrane
Is the site down due to traffic? I'm getting intermittent errors.

------
angry_octet
Terrible geocoding -- the one case in Sydney, state of NSW, is drawn as a dot
in what is guess is the centroid of the state, hundreds of km away from
anywhere.

------
scepticalmind
Has anyone questioned weather this virus has infected any other race of people
other than Asians?

------
Timothycquinn
Would be great to have a way to roll through time rather than just look at
present day.

Great presentation tool.

------
cynicalreason
almost 4% mortality rate in Hubei is pretty scary, I imagine a lot has to do
with China not reporting real infection numbers which are rumoured to be much
higher

------
vackosar
here is a chart with log scale option
[http://coronaviruschart.com/](http://coronaviruschart.com/)

------
molteanu
@mods, there was the news the other day about Kobe's death. It got flagged,
and for good reason.

Why is this coronavirus stuff not flagged also? There are currently 3 articles
on the front page related to this. It just slipped or is there a reason for
this?

~~~
cthalupa
It's a (mildly) scientific discussion. Lots of medical discussion happens on
HN due to their scientific nature.

Kobe's death, while tragic, is more along the lines of current event
discussion.

~~~
TrickyRick
It's related to aviation which always tends to make the front page. While this
particular thread I think very much belongs here, there have been a bunch of
links to nothing more than news articles over the last few days which are of
little interest from a HN perspective.

