
NYU professor Scott Galloway predicts hundreds of universities will shutter - raybb
https://www.businessinsider.com/scott-galloway-colleges-must-cut-costs-to-survive-covid-2020-7
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chillacy
For those interested in past predictions as a track record, I found Scott's
previous predictions here:

2018-2019:
[https://www.profgalloway.com/2019-predictions](https://www.profgalloway.com/2019-predictions)

2019-2020:
[https://www.profgalloway.com/2020-predictions](https://www.profgalloway.com/2020-predictions)

Though some of his predictions are shaky because they don't provide a
timeline. Scott Alexander used to do predictions w/ deadlines + estimated
probability. If all goes well you should be able to map your predictions on a
perfect line, x axis representing estimated probability and y representing
actual percentage which happened.

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supernova87a
Perhaps this is because he's a professor of marketing and unaware, but I
would've thought any such analysis would include the huge amounts of $ that
universities get from doing federally (and other) funded research. Because
that factor basically tells me how much they will hurt (or not) by classes
being canceled, more than his other mentioned factors. All he talks about is
student tuition fees and endowment, as if schools only have those 2 things to
burn through.

Universities heavy on research funding have a revenue source and working
population base probably equal or greater than the undergrad population, and
are much less likely to fold. Undergraduate education and its revenues are in
comparison (to use a term from a favorite professor) a pimple on the ass of
graduate and professional research funds for those institutions.

Any colleges/universities that are heavily dependent on undergrads and the
tuition they pay (at full unsubsidized rack rate, having little to no science
research revenue) are the ones most at risk. I.e. the Sarah Lawrences of this
world.

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MR4D
Uh, sports too. Maybe sports _especially_.

Stanford just cancelled 11 different sports due to funding issues. Yes,
Stanford. [0]

If NCAA football is cancelled, the number of schools closing for good will get
much bigger.

[0] - [https://news.stanford.edu/2020/07/08/athletics-
faq/](https://news.stanford.edu/2020/07/08/athletics-faq/)

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waterfowl
It seems to me that most schools with substantial D1 football revenues are
also R1 universities. Thinking of the "P5" football conferences(SEC, Big 10,
12, PAC 12, ACC) I am not coming up with many low research activity schools.

I think the schools that are likely to shutter are small non prestigious
private teaching oriented universities/colleges, very few of which I think are
substantially football revenue driven.

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dumbfoundded
Not really an accurate title. The article classifies 89 out of 436
universities as will perish. Most of the article is a condemnation of
universities who plan business as normal despite the serious health concerns.
Then it goes on to state what factors put universities at risk of shuttering.

All-in-all it does seem like the universities will prefer to lose some
percentage of their lives over their livelihoods. On the current path, a 3rd
spike seems likely.

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ac29
Original source: [https://www.profgalloway.com/uss-
university](https://www.profgalloway.com/uss-university)

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toomuchtodo
Worksheet:
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CUs3HrqstC2oV3CF3_di...](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CUs3HrqstC2oV3CF3_di4yW6Y4K_CIrUJNEEHCCKo7A/htmlview)

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wuwuno
I think it's going to be much, much higher.

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profanon137
Meanwhile, outside of the US, we're looking to hire 30 new TT faculty.

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chmaynard
Scott Galloway should spend less time making predictions and building his
brand, and more time working to improve outcomes for these valuable
institutions.

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alpineidyll3
What value and at what cost? Perhaps if this is how a prominent faculty member
behaves you might wanna think about it.

