
Car Alarms Don't Work. Why Are They So Common? - JackPoach
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/05/car-alarms-dont-work-why-so-common/482769/?single_page=true
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onion2k
_Moreover, a blaring alarm might scare off a first-time joyrider, but they’re
a non-issue for most professional thieves, who can clip a few wires and
silence an alarm with ease. Indeed, one 1997 analysis found that cars with
alarms “show no overall reduction in theft losses.”_

So a car alarm doesn't reduce the probability of your car being stolen
compared to someone else's car. On the face of it that demonstrates car alarms
don't work. But it also implies that car alarms _collectively_ reduce the
level of opportunist "first-time joyrider" crime as a whole, which _will_
reduce the probability of your car being stolen. If 9 out of 10 cars are taken
by opportunists then car alarms will reduce the crime level by 90%. They'll
have no effect on the remaining 10% but that doesn't mean they're useless.

~~~
lmm
> it also implies that car alarms collectively reduce the level of opportunist
> "first-time joyrider" crime as a whole

No it doesn't? It speculates that "a blaring alarm might scare off a first-
time joyrider" but offers no actual evidence that this happens, and the "no
overall reduction in theft losses" argues against that.

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jamestnz
Last time I looked at after-market car alarms, even the most basic units ($100
NZD = ~70 USD) had at least one immobilizer, sometimes multiple. (An
immobilizer being a relay which interrupts one or more parts of the
startup/ignition/fuel systems until the alarm has been disabled, usually
through a rolling-code keyfob).

This article make it seem like immobilizers are some exotic high-end feature,
which has not been my experience at all.

~~~
ifdefdebug
I never thought about it before reading this article, but in the city where I
live (Lisbon) car alarms going off were a constant phenomena about 10 to 20
years ago and have constantly dropped since then. Today they are almost gone.
Maybe alarms are being replaced by silent immobilizers in the low to mid
range, combined with GPS tracking devices in the high range?

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aaron695
Because they do work.

The article only offers one point of evidence they don't -

> Indeed, one 1997 analysis found that cars with alarms “show no overall
> reduction in theft losses.”

Which I can't access, but I can access other articles that confirm car alarms
do work.

Even the fact insurance companies require them shows they do. I'll trust an
actuary with real data, real money on the line, real money for research over
one journal article any day.

~~~
Flavius
> Even the fact insurance companies require them shows they do.

Irrefutable proof right there. Also, random guys who have cars with alarms and
it's working for them because nobody ever tried to steal their cars.

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josh_fyi
In Israel alarms were banned for new cars. Cars that already have alarms are
grandfathered in for 3 years or so and then alarms must be disabled.

Immobilizers have done a great job of reducing theft, however.

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gozur88
I can tell you why I have one. I get a break on my insurance.

~~~
logicallee
So I have a huge interest in micro-economics.

Based on thinking about what you wrote, I have the following real question
(not sarcasm or making a point): if your homeowner's insurance company gave
you a $100/year break if you bought a certified "tiger rock" for $300 (that
keeps tigers from breaking into your home) would you (actually) buy one? (You
can substitute anything else that is obviously non-working, you can assume
that corruption leads the policy - insurance actuary in cahoots with tiger
rock supplier, whatever.) point is I'm curious if you would do it if
absolutely non-working. (To the point where even sale of it is kind of
offensive.)

~~~
rdancer
I'd ask them if I can install another one on the back door. If they're giving
me free money, who am I to judge their motivation?

~~~
newjersey
Ah but it isn't really free money. By installing two if these things, you've
essentially hooked yourself to your insurance provider for six years. I'd
happily give away two $300 bags of crap to get a customer handcuffed to me for
six years.

Disclaimer: I hate car alarms with a vengeance. I think if a car alarm sounds
and does not shut down within ten minutes (automatically or owner's
intervention), there should be a large fine (I'd say the value of the car).

~~~
rdancer
That's a very good point. I would argue that insurance is a long-term
relationship, it's a very mature industry, I don't expect there will be great
savings in changing providers, and finding the best provider means doing due
diligence and reading through dozens of small print — not something I would
relish anyway. They're offering a 33% annual ROI. If they can guarantee an
option to re-up for at least four years, we're good.

You should adjust the car alarm's settings. If you don't, and you happen to
live in my neighbourhood, I have a stack of bricks in my back yard, one of
which will just about fit through that hole in your windshield.

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petewailes
There's an interesting point here right at the end. The solution to most
problems that are most often tackled with jail time isn't jail.

The war on drugs is the classic example. If a government doesn't want people
abusing substances, that's fine, but the solution isn't jail sentences. It's
addressing why people abuse them in the first place.

Jail is too often used as a rug to sweep those we disapprove of under. It's
easier and quicker than trying to actually solve the problem, but it's also
far less effective and more expensive in the long run.

It's high time society made a concerted effort to try and help people from
these sorts of backgrounds, rather than demonising them in the media, and
castigating them in the political arena. Rehabilitation, education and support
are far more effective tools than jail for many crimes.

~~~
CamperBob2
The solution to car theft, however, is most _definitely_ jail.

~~~
onion2k
That isn't a solution. Even if prison stops someone being a thief that doesn't
stop new thieves coming along. The _solution_ to theft is to create a society
where people don't feel the need or desire to steal things. That's much easier
said than done though

~~~
CamperBob2
Your outlook will probably change the first morning you walk outside to find
your car missing.

~~~
onion2k
My outlook is "Society should be a place where theft isn't a thing." That
isn't going to change if I'm the victim of theft; in fact, if anything, that
would strengthen my resolve and make me more adamant that reducing poverty and
materialism is the answer.

Believing that people being put in prison is preferable to crime not happening
in the first place is a _really_ weird position to take.

~~~
CamperBob2
_My outlook is "Society should be a place where theft isn't a thing."_

Yeah, we'll get right on that. In the meantime, on _this_ planet, jail it is.

 _Believing that people being put in prison is preferable to crime not
happening in the first place is a really weird position to take._

Sigh.

~~~
onion2k
The rate of car theft in New York has fallen by 96% over the past 30 years[1].
That's mostly due to technology, but there are other factors. Some of the last
4% will be solved by changing society to make car theft unnecessary for poorer
people by ending poverty. The rest, probably, will always be there. I believe
this demonstrates that we can _effectively_ end crime. In three more decades
if the rate is 1% what it is now I reckon that's pretty close.

[1] [http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/12/upshot/heres-why-
stealing-...](http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/12/upshot/heres-why-stealing-
cars-went-out-of-fashion.html)

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sudojudo
I surely fall outside of where they gathered their statistics, but living in a
rural area, and going to small schools (circa 1995), my car alarm was quite
useful. It's different when you live in a place where people know one another,
and give a damn about crime. 99% of the time, myself, or someone I knew, was
within earshot of my alarm.

First off, everyone here knows that default settings often don't suffice. You
can't just take the alarm out of the box, hook it up, and call it good. You
have to configure it, and sometimes that takes a bit of effort to get right.
My alarm would only go off if someone broke a window, crashed into my car
(hard), or tried the door handles. I wanted it to activate in each of those
scenarios.

Next, the blinking LED. I knew guys that would simply wire in an LED, no alarm
at all, because the flashing LED is what said _" I have an alarm and it's
armed."_ Nobody here avoided pranking their friend (or nemesis) because they
saw that red LED? I certainly did, it says DO NOT TOUCH. Not the case these
days, but twenty years back, blinky lights were fancy.

Finally, there are all kinds of alarms, they don't all have blaring sirens.
Even in the 90s, there was an alarm that signaled a pager (don't recall the
protocol). There was also the option of just flashing the lights, or outright
killing power to everything. From sensors to alerts, nothing has improved over
the last twenty years? Bah!

Again, being from a rural area, I'm likely an exception to the rule; I can
imagine car alarms causing insanity in the city. But, I've got to say that my
car alarm was pretty useful back in high school and college. And, knowing that
other people had alarms stopped quite a few shenanigans within my group of
friends. I hesitate to say this, but reckless as it may be, some of us _do_
want to go kick some criminal ass when the opportunity presents itself. I
tackled a guy and had him tied to a chair when the cops arrived, it was
awesome!

I'm not going to argue the math, this article is surely on the right side of
things, I'm just offering a different perspective. My car no longer has an
alarm, but it also doesn't have five grand in speakers, CDs, and other teenage
crap in it. My house now has the alarm, but it consists of all kinds of cool
stuff other than a siren; there's no reason it can't be the same with modern
car alarms.

~~~
cauterized
Ignoring alarms in the city isn't about giving a damn about crime. It's about
knowing that 99% of the time when a car alarm goes off and you look out your
window there's nobody within 100 feet of the damn thing. It got set off by a
pigeon or by someone driving too close and making the windows rattle a bit.

Then it goes off ceaselessly all night when you're trying to sleep. That's not
a warning system. It's a hair trigger and a nuisance.

NYC introduced an ordinance about 10 years ago severely fining anyone whose
alarm doesn't turn off automatically after 2 minutes. It's still legal to have
one that's on a hair trigger and gets set off again 30 seconds after turning
off as long as it turns off within 2 minutes.

Thankfully they've become less common altogether since then.

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zimbatm
Alarm owners should be paying noise pollution fines every time they have a
false-positive.

There is no reason why I should I get woken up at 3am for the potential
benefits of somebody else's possession.

~~~
rdancer
Brick-through-the-windshield tax.

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zeofig
I was thinking about this the other day as the neighbour's car alarm went off
and yet again disturbed my peaceful ruminations. My mind was soon swirling
with passive aggressive fantasies involving mean little notes, permanent
markers, and of course scraping keys. Looks like Moloch wins again.

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Toenex
Is this a market ripe for disruption - people are still buying a product that
doesn't work? Also the market is likely to change over the next decade. What
happens to car crime once a large number of vehicles are self drive?

~~~
executesorder66
I'd imagine people would block cars without passengers from escaping. Rip out
the tracker and any other remote control components. Then tow it to a chop
shop and sell the parts for scrap.

~~~
Toenex
I guess network security will matter too. A thief could reroute a moving
vehicle in transit and send it to their favourite chop-shop. In fact, given
that you will only ever be a passenger in a self drive vehicle, why limit
yourself to stealing empty cars?

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personjerry
Also, if you make the consumer feel like he would be safer, it's an extra
feature to sell.

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jbb555
I think it depends on the situation.

My car is parked outside of my house in such a way that stealing the car would
take a few minutes (It's a bit tricky to get the car down the drive, and it
takes 1 minute even when you know how to best turn it).

If I didn't have an alarm they could just steal it. As I do, and if I'm in,
I'll certainly hear the alarm in time to do something about it.

Of course this doesn't apply everywhere but the blanket statement that car
alarms don't work is plain wrong.

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King-Aaron
Just leave a venomous snake in a handbag on the passenger seat. Probably the
best car alarm you can get.

~~~
Flavius
Cobra Vehicle Security?

