
Mystery of interstellar visitor 'Oumuamua gets trickier - Osiris30
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/mystery-of-interstellar-visitor-oumuamua-gets-trickier/
======
kentonv
My pet theory (which is not intended to be taken too seriously) is that it is
indeed a discarded light sail, and that light sail in particular was used to
transport a Von Neumann probe which detached at some point after the object
entered our solar system but before we first observed it. This detachment, in
addition to leaving the sail tumbling, would have changed its trajectory,
meaning our estimation of which direction the object originally came from is
incorrect. In any case, the probe is now busy replicating, perhaps on the
surface of Mercury. In a few years an army of robots will launch from there
and invade the rest of the solar system!

Realistically, though, it's too much of a coincidence that such a probe would
first arrive so soon after we gained the ability to conceive of it.

~~~
burtonator
> Realistically, though, it's too much of a coincidence that such a probe
> would first arrive so soon after we gained the ability to conceive of it.

It is based on TIME but our conception of it would be independent.

I think a lot of what's part of the drake equation is merited on overlap. It's
entirely possible that other civilizations have been created and died out LONG
before mammals even evolved.

IF you factor in just the last 200 years of human technological advancement
it's plausible in another 200 we will have either destroyed ourselves or
evolved into gods.

Either way we're not going to be talking to anyone in the universe.

I think it's plausible that a god would not want to talk to another
intelligent civilization. Why would we? We would be to a god what bacteria is
to us.

I don't really have a conversation with the bacteria infecting a wound. I just
take antibiotics.

~~~
licebmi__at__
I don't really understand what this "evolving into godhood" means, but I would
really like to talk with the bacteria if I could, even if I might still take
antibiotics after talking to it.

~~~
sumedh
> I don't really understand what this "evolving into godhood" means

Not dying of old age or saving your memories/consciousness into a computer and
transferring into another body.

------
sandworm101
If we put half the energy we use up arguing about Oumuamua into detecting more
interstellar objects we would have the data to end this debate.

I'm a fan of the pragmatic mathematical approach. This was the first thing
detected. The chances that the first result is also any sort of outlier are
very slim. Detect and track some more of these objects. I'd bet good money
that Oumuamua's motion is very explainable once we get some better data from
other, similar, objects.

~~~
themgt
> If we put half the energy we use up arguing about Oumuamua into detecting
> more interstellar objects we would have the data to end this debate

This HN comment was just the motivation I needed to get off my computer and
rededicate myself to polishing eighteen 1.32m gold-plated beryllium hexagonal
mirror segments.

~~~
ddingus
What is used, and how long does doing that take?

~~~
AlexCoventry
I think it was sarcasm.

~~~
duck2
Still interesting what would be used to polish a gold plated beryllium mirror.
For instance, looks like they clean it by spraying CO2 snow:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_cleaning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_cleaning)

~~~
ddingus
Yeah, I took a gamble.

Just looked at the reference you dropped. Thanks, that is an interesting
little rabbit hole.

------
ekimekim
> Asked if there is a clear leading candidate explanation for 'Oumuamua's
> acceleration, Loeb referred Live Science to a not-yet-released book he
> authored called "Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond
> Earth," due for publication in January.

I don't know enough about the science to have an informed opinion, but it
seems to me that if the main skeptic is also selling a book based in their
exciting alternate theory, that's kinda a huge red flag.

~~~
sandworm101
First sign? The first was probably the irrigation canals spotted on mars. Then
repeating radio signals. The face on mars. Tabby's star. Each had their day as
the first _sign_. The first real detection won't be some slight variance that
we debate for years but solid evidence. If Oumuamua was a triangle, that would
be solid evidence. It isn't aliens until it is.

~~~
sdenton4
Well, even a 'giant triangle' may still not be enough... There is a giant
hexagon on Saturn, after all.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturn%27s_hexagon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturn%27s_hexagon)

~~~
Izkata
Down in the explanations, a triangle:

> Similar regular shapes were created in the laboratory when a circular tank
> of liquid was rotated at different speeds at its centre and periphery. The
> most common shape was six sided, but shapes with three to eight sides were
> also produced.

~~~
mcculley
Natural processes can make lots of structures that look artificial. See
Giant's Causeway:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant%27s_Causeway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant%27s_Causeway)

~~~
p1necone
And pyrite (fool's gold) crystals:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrite)

------
henriquemaia
I follow the _What da Math_ [0] channel on YouTube to keep up with the latest
news on cosmology. I highly recommend it. Very thorough and with daily
updates.

[0] [https://youtube.com/user/whatdamath](https://youtube.com/user/whatdamath)

------
sulam
The subhead is "Aliens? Or a chunk of solid hydrogen? Which idea makes less
sense?"

The better version would be: "Journalism? Or Clickbait? Which idea makes less
sense?"

"Scientific American" indeed.

~~~
Gibbon1
I think it's extremely low density collection of dust particles held together
by electrostatic forces. AKA a cosmic dust bunny.

~~~
mirekrusin
Maybe interesting idea for long distance engine, worth exploring.

------
ekianjo
> Asked if there is a clear leading candidate explanation for 'Oumuamua's
> acceleration, Loeb referred Live Science to a not-yet-released book he
> authored called "Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond
> Earth," due for publication in January.

Oh this is an article without substance just to promote a book?

------
IAmGraydon
Read the last sentence of the article. Bias warps perception. This shouldn't
even be posted here.

~~~
happytoexplain
>Asked if there is a clear leading candidate explanation for 'Oumuamua's
acceleration, Loeb referred Live Science to a not-yet-released book he
authored called "Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond
Earth," due for publication in January.

I don't understand - is it unexpected that the person forming an argument for
the alien hypothesis has written a book about it? That's not usually what
people mean when they say "bias", and it's even further from being a good
reason that the entire article "shouldn't be posted here". Or are you just
making the assumption that the book's dumb "clickbaity" title must mean the
author is full of shit?

~~~
datameta
It seems obvious to me that if one intends to make money from a theory it is
in their best interest to champion said theory even in the face of conflicting
research and alternate explanations.

~~~
aetherson
The profession of research scientist is the profession of making money from
theories.

------
czzr
Summary: hydrogen iceberg theory questioned as the expected lifespan of a
hydrogen iceberg is likely too short, given the distance Oumuamua would have
had to travel.

~~~
waynecochran
You forgot about the aliens.

~~~
rosstex
You have failed to account for the fact that we live in a simulation.

~~~
TriNetra
Or, we're just a projection in a dream of the all-pervading cosmic
consciousness.

------
PopePompus
Anytime you see an astronomy article in the popular press that sounds a bit
flaky, you can bet Avi Loeb's name will appear in it.

~~~
misanthropian00
Is he the new Carl Sagan?

------
m3kw9
We all need some more excitement in life, this unexpected piece of rock
provides exactly that

------
elorant
Previous discussion:

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24204323](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24204323)

------
8bitsrule
OK, suppose as proposed that the H2 in an object couldn't survive the journey.
What makes us certain that Oumu is interstellar? Haven't seen that convincing
argument (in human-readable form).

Voyagers I and II are leaving the solar system; they got the kinetic energy to
do that. I'm not convinced that all plausible histories for that happening
within the SS without human assistance have been explored. As for the makeup
of the object ... that will remain hypothetical. Maybe if we'd seen it sooner
...

~~~
dodobirdlord
Are you suggesting that Oumu was some sort of Oort cloud object that was
disturbed into a hyperbolic trajectory? That seems a lot less likely than Oumu
originating outside of the sun's gravitational influence.

------
rbanffy
Can't we build a probe that can reach it? What's the fastest we can launch a
ton of equipment in Oumuamua's direction?

~~~
aetherson
No, it's long gone.

~~~
rbanffy
It's currently traveling at about half the speed of New Horizons, but on a
highly inclined plane. The delta-v from Earth seems to be around 60 km/s.

------
_def
I'm currently watching the Alien movies. Maybe it's better that we are "alone"
haha

~~~
BLKNSLVR
Alien 3 is an underrated, much maligned, masterpiece.

------
bluedays
This is pretty cool. I am constantly looking at current events and thinking to
myself "what if aliens were watching this?". I feel like it sorta puts things
in perspective for me. Seeing that this might be a possibility is sorta
thrilling.

~~~
rendall
"what if aliens were watching this?"

There is an archetype of the Mysterious Stranger, an innocent, naive observer
of our culture, who finds us incomprehensible because we are Just Terrible. We
make war, pollute, enslave, etc, while this archetype is pure.

Examples: K-Pax, Powder, Dostoyevski's The Idiot, Crocodile Dundee all have
elements of this archetype

The thing is, the only reason this archetype has any meaning to us is because
this archetype shares our values. That character is always just the author,
putting words in the mouth of a character who could not exist in reality.
There is no Mysterious Stranger.

We can expect actual aliens, ones who evolved in a different ecosystem, would
have no opinion about what we do. Not from our value system anyway. Less
"these poor hooman creatures actually kill each other, how primitive!" and
more ... well, something more incomprehensible to us

~~~
bluedays
I don't think that's true. I could conceive of an alien "prime directive" like
in Star Trek. So saying that it's out of the question is definitely not
something that I believe. Humans, after all, are constantly observing other
species. Why wouldn't aliens?

~~~
rendall
Can you expand? I don't see the logical connection between "I can conceive it"
and therefore it's possible.

I mean, it's _possible_ aliens are so similar to us we could communicate and
share values. I just don't see why we would expect it, given that they will
have evolved in a completely different environment with completely different
evolutionary pressures. We would be far more likely to figure out what whale
songs mean than communicate meaningfully with aliens

I'll leave aside my personal favorite pet answer to the Fermi Paradox that we
have not evolved the ability to even perceive aliens; but suffice to say when
I mean aliens are different, I mean _different_ , not just basically people
with funny ears

So, to my mind, the question to answer is not "Why wouldn't aliens?" but "Why
would they? How would it even be reasonably possible?"

~~~
patentatt
There may be some universal aspects to sentience. Especially one that,
presumably, comes knocking at our door. Any energy and/or resource consumption
probably leads to expansionary tendencies to acquire more resources and
energy. And if they come here, that implies they have some technology or
ability for motion, which I’m fairly certain necessitates energy usage. So, on
some real base level, they’d probably want ‘stuff.’ And when you think about
it, wanting stuff drives a lot of our evolved biology and social structures.
I’d venture to guess that if aliens ever do show up, there would be at least
some mutually recognizable aspects.

Now my favored theory is that there are no other sentient species within a
detectable range from us, and same goes for any of them out there too. Time to
start accepting that we’re (functionally) all alone out here.

~~~
rendall
"There may be some universal aspects to sentience."

I'll define sentience for us quite loosely and vaguely to mean "has self
awareness" and "knows stuff that would be useful to us", like new fields in
mathematics and physics. LMK if that's incorrect.

There _may_ be universal aspects to that, and we're only speculating, so you
could be right ¯\\_(ツ)_/¯ I have a feeling that "sentience" as a general
concept, whatever the definition, contains these "universal aspects" right in
the definition, begging the question.

We only have a single data point for even recognizing what sentience is: as
you say, some indicators are "motion", "wanting stuff", "energy usage"

Since there are example on Earth of creatures that have all of those traits
that are definitely not sentient, can I assume you mean at greater scale? So,
motion across interstellar distances and what that implies.

To my mind, motion across interstellar distances is neither necessary nor
sufficient to demonstrate "sentience" as defined above. I can easily imagine a
mindless entity evolved to spew spores into space with only enough sentience
to take advantage of gravity sling shots to speed themselves along the way,
that we mistake for spaceships. Or highly advanced, sentient creatures that
are immobile, that look to us like barnacles or slime mold, that take
thousands of years to complete a single thought.

At the end of the day, I believe we are going to recognize only creatures that
evolved under very similar circumstances to us as "sentient": can manipulate
objects; can emit signals we recognize as such, at a scale we can comprehend;
bonus points for spaceships, clothing, machinery; bonus points for using
scientific principles that we do not yet know, but would find useful.

I suspect (admittedly without due cause) that this kind of sentience is
exceedingly rare relative to the potential diversity of what is possible;
which is to say, that post-first-contact humanity will find our definition of
sentience to be astonishingly narrow

------
kristianp
Why does it have to be a hydrogen snowball? Because no tail was detected that
would have indicated a dirty methane-etc snowball? What about an stony
asteroid-like object?

~~~
petascale
Quoting the article:

"While a few other substances (like solid neon) could potentially explain the
coma-free acceleration, hydrogen was the best match for the data."

It doesn't have to be hydrogen. But to explain acceleration from solar heating
it does need outgassing, and the outgassing has to be in a form that we can't
detect (no comet tail). Stone won't have much (or any) of that.

------
lmilcin
Well, if it was hydrogen iceberg it would not only accelerate when leaving Sol
system, it would also _decelerate_ when closing in.

~~~
sliken
Right, but we didn't notice it till to late.

------
lowdose
To start playing aliens throw us a snowball. What would have happend when
Oumuamua would hit our planet?

~~~
extropy
If it was composed of solid hydrogen then very little. It would evaporate at
slightest touch of a planets atmosphere. Maybe even bounce off it.

For solid hydrogen any planet with atmosphere is like a ball of hot molten
lava for a snowball.

Edit: I was half expecting there to be a video of throwing snowballs into
lava, Internet does not have it all, yet.

~~~
salawat
Sounds like something to add to the bucket list.

------
dvh1990
It could be a probe that scans solar systems. I like that idea.

------
mirekrusin
Personally I find it suspicious for the first alien object detected to be of a
shape of standard human poo.

------
ssrs
2020\. 'nuff said.

------
sidcool
I have a strong belief that we will establish first contact by 2040.

~~~
edgyquant
Based on what?

~~~
sidcool
Belief, a feeling. Nothing tangible. Almost 6th sense like.

------
jcims
I feel we’ll be visiting it in a couple hundred years.

~~~
novalis78
2020 isn't quite over yet

------
thesizeofa
I suppose they need to drive traffic on “scientific”american by either
flouting aliens, mysteries, or objects the size of several thousands football
fields or washing machines.

There is nothing alien about this space object other than its geological
origin.

------
person_of_color
I don't get it. Why don't we image this thing directly?

~~~
craigching
We have!
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ʻOumuamua](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ʻOumuamua)

But it’s small and moving away from us fast. We couldn’t build anything in
time that could catch up to it and image it closer.

~~~
person_of_color
Interesting.

The trajectory of O'uamuamua seems almost.. designed to scout the Sun's
habitable zone.

[https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f5/Ou...](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f5/Oumuamua-
solar_system-ecliptic-normals.png/1024px-Oumuamua-solar_system-ecliptic-
normals.png)

~~~
postalrat
I think the theory is that it wasn't really moving relative to the sun and
kinda just fell in.

------
ReptileMan
And on far-off Earth, Dr. Carlisle Perera had as yet told no one how he had
wakened from a restless sleep with the message from his subconscious still
echoing in his brain: The Ramans do everything in threes.

We just have to hope there is at least one more

