
An analysis of Lionel Messi - napolux
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lionel-messi-is-impossible/
======
devindotcom
I love watching extreme outliers in play - its one of the main reasons I
watch. Guys like Messi, Jordan, Ali are so high above the standard (and often
so different) that they elevate the whole sport just by taking part.

~~~
abstairly
I think one thing that's interesting is how this relates to things like pay
equality.

People throw their arms up and say "How the hell can a CEO pay themselves 1000
times what the lowest paid staff gets paid"

But that CEO may be a "Messi".

Some people really are 1,000x more productive/as talented as the average
person. And so should be compensated accordingly.

~~~
x0x0
Besides the obvious inequality, and unlike Messi, ceos rig the game.

If the company performs incredibly well, they receive dynastic levels of
wealth. If they completely fuck up... they receive dynastic levels of wealth.
If they're essentially fired for cause after _5 months_... they receive enough
wealth to retire ($7.3m for 130 days including weekends) [1]. If an already
stunningly wealth ceo submits fraudulent expense reports trying to get in the
pants of one of his employees (who doesn't seem to have been much besides eye
candy), demonstrating at bare minimum incredibly poor judgement along with the
possibility of sexual harassment, he's given dynastic levels of wealth ($40m)
and merely made to resign. [2] In short, there's no performance requirement.

[1] [http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/14/technology/yahoo-ceo-no-
seve...](http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/14/technology/yahoo-ceo-no-severance/)

[2] [http://www.businessinsider.com/backlash-against-hewlett-
pack...](http://www.businessinsider.com/backlash-against-hewlett-packard-
grows-it-seems-mark-hurd-fired-because-company-scared-of-bad-pr-over-bogus-
sexual-harassment-allegation-2010-8)

~~~
bobbles
AFAIK every one of those statements can be replacing the CEO with a sports
star and everything is still true

~~~
nr0mx
In short, there's no performance requirement?

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pyotrgalois
If you love football or fútbol (I am from Argentina) you should watch this
video called "Messi is a dog":
[http://youtu.be/pZocxOQUHzs](http://youtu.be/pZocxOQUHzs)

A really beautiful description of how Messi plays. I almost cried the first
time I watched it.

~~~
camperman
Awesome video. The compilation he refers to is this one:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RD9Zc2kwpI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RD9Zc2kwpI).
As a Barca fan I remember the very early compilations.

Personally I think that if you grab another player's clothing or impede him
with your arms or hands while he has possession, it should be an instant red
card.

~~~
wldcordeiro
Seriously, there needs to be a holding rule in Soccer/football. I find it so
absurd that they grab each other and hold each other and the refs think it's
fair.

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apaprocki
It strikes me as odd that half the graphs do not have clearly labeled axes.
I'd expect all of them to be labeled or none of them -- but some of them? The
first one struck me as odd especially since the scales are roughly the same.

~~~
mAritz
For the first one you can figure it out based on the text before it. But I
agree, it annoyed me too.

~~~
tagawa
It would also be better to have other colours for the scatter plots rather
than dark grey and light grey - it's difficult to tell the difference. Great
data analysis and explanation of what makes him great, though.

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yen223
That beautiful pass to Angel di Maria in the latest match against Switzerland
went a long way towards proving that.

~~~
swah
Today's match!

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talles
Just a curiosity: the word _Ronaldo_ appears 27 times in the article.

edit: Whoa, why the downvote? I'm justing pointing it out that is impossible
to talk about Messi without talking about CR7 (and vice-versa).

~~~
omnibrain
"Ronaldo" is one of the things that confuses me, as an occasional spectator,
the most. In every generation there seems to be a person called "Ronaldo".
Most of them played for Brasil, but the most recent one is a portuguese
player. For me it's difficult to get who people are talking about when they
mention "Ronaldo".

~~~
martin_bech
While not strictly PC, in euro footbal circles we split the three into Fat
Ronaldo, Ronaldinho and Ronaldo (Christinao Ronaldo). Fat Ronaldo because he
got fat when he retired, Ronaldinho because thats what his shirt said when he
played for FC Barcelona, and just Ronaldo (Christiano Ronaldo), because he is
the current one.

~~~
celebdor
He got fat much before he retired. The last three seasons at Madrid he was
overweight but still the most explosive player in the box.

~~~
oblio
He was a sight to behold. At least 5 kilos overweight (as a professional
football player!) and he could dash in front of defenders in front of him. I
saw him 2-3 meters behind a defender during a 10-15 meter sprint where he
ended 2-3 meters in front of the defender at the end.

Really explosive!

~~~
BSousa
I remember watching him play. His free kicks/long range shots were amazing:
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGbjmD3btJg](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGbjmD3btJg)

~~~
Datsundere
That's Roberto Carlos who plays midfield

I think you wanted this
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8bZhNBQktQ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8bZhNBQktQ)

~~~
gokhan
Carlos actually plays left back.

------
gone35
_As the primary striker for such a juggernaut, it can be hard to detangle
Messi 's goal-scoring prowess from Barcelona's general offensive dominance.
(...) I think this criticism is fair -- and I found it intriguing enough to
look into the matter myself.

(...)

By now I've studied nearly every aspect of Messi's game, down to a touch-by-
touch level: his shooting and scoring production; where he shoots from; how
often he sets up his own shots; what kind of kicks he uses to make those
shots; his ability to take on defenders; how accurate his passes are; the kind
of passes he makes; how often he creates scoring chances; how often those
chances lead to goals; even how his defensive playmaking compares to other
high-volume shooters._

Yet none of that really addresses the main potential confounder the author
acknowledges: most measurable aspects of a player's game --not only (assisted)
goals but also even touch-by-touch, more seemingly 'individual' skill measures
such as passing success-- are arguably heavily conditioned on the ability of
the rest of the team. (Today, for instance, Messi didn't score against
Switzerland, and the team was goalless for 117 mins until a tepid 1-0 in extra
time ( _edit: but assisted by Messi! my apologies_ )... go figure).

A 'matched' design would have been much more appropriate, but I realize it's
hard to do sound data analysis on a journalist's deadline.

~~~
jorleif
Excellent point, but would you care to explain how you would match subjects in
this case? They should be comparable pre-something, but what would that
something be?

~~~
gone35
Perhaps a superficially plausible ignorability assumption would be that,
during rapid breakouts from the defensive zone, striker skill would strongly
depend on the midfield's ability to open up favorably, which in turn would
depend somehow on the defense's overall (relative) skill; so that, _via_ _d_
-separation, striker skill and defense's relative skill would be independent
conditional on midfield's skill during breakouts. It would definitely not be
trivial!

------
guard-of-terra
Maybe he's a living ballistical computer? Or has one built in? I'm actually
curious whether there are objective reasons why he's so good.

~~~
samsonradu
I think around 80% it is due to a lifetime of hard work in a perfect
environment (FC Barcelona's Academy) surrounded by the best people in the
game. The other 20% may come from his psychological abilities, being able to
reach very high levels of concentration at peak moments. Notice that he is not
a very active and working player throughout the whole match, instead he shines
through certain moments.

Some people also related this to the Asperger's Syndrome.
[http://www.reddit.com/r/aspergers/comments/1m17yp/alltime_gr...](http://www.reddit.com/r/aspergers/comments/1m17yp/alltime_great_soccer_player_lionel_messi_was/)

~~~
philwelch
Lionel Messi was already known as an outlier as a young boy in Argentina. The
psychological abilities and lifetime of training at Barca simply molded
something that was already there, but there are hundreds of other footballers
who trained at Barca the same time Messi did and none of them are Messi. Some
of them are very very good, but none of them are Messi.

~~~
samsonradu
True, it's the 20% that makes him better than players like let's say Cesc
Fabregas (same football academy) who is a top-level player but kind of lacks
the magic. Also note that there is a thin layer between a very good player and
a great one, sometimes measured in miliseconds and centimeters but the output
is fantastic! :)

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will_work4tears
I found this article to be quite interesting, even though I do not follow
soccer/football (fútbol?). I find this sort of data analytic to be
fascinating. It almost seems like art, what data sets to pull from, how to
compare it, etc. How would one, other than brushing up on statistics, get into
this sort of field? It seems much more interesting than basic web development.

~~~
rjtavares
Coursera has a Data Science specialization track by Johns Hopkins university.
That would be a good place to start.

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tauslu
This is the most dataful soccer analysis that I have ever seen. In US sports
(NBA, NFL, MLB), stats are very much used and audience are well aware of them
but in soccer (I follow closely premier league, la liga), no such data exist
or at least it did not seem so.

Of course, one reason soccer is less dataful is the amount of luck involved in
the game. So much underdog achievement is happening which is probably why the
game is very much liked (there was a great link that I cannot find which shows
the weight of luck of per sport (soccer is being close to the top))

Last comment about the study, given time, they could have considered defense
aspect

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anuraj
Maradona and Messi are two different kind of players from two different eras.
Maradona is a mid fielder who can control the game from the centre, whereas
Messi is forward who excels in striking and last minute opportunity creation.
Perhaps greatness of Maradona may be compared to Zidane. It will not be fair
to judge a midfielder on the number of goals scored - midfielder is a
strategist - which Maradona was.

~~~
philwelch
Maradona and Messi are both natural #10's.

------
Pxtl
Timely since the Switzerland game just happened and Messi only got an assist.
The Swiss goaltender was impressive, especially compared to the Argenine
goalie who made a few bad fumbles that could have been goals with slightly
different luck.

~~~
kareemm
Messi assisted the only goal of the game with a beautiful pass. There were 2
minutes remaining in extra time when the goal was scored. Seems right in line
with the outlier theme of the article to me.

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foobarqux
A deluge of data but little insight. What am I supposed to take away from this
article besides the well-known fact that Messi is one of the best soccer
players in the world?

~~~
bradleyjg
Sometimes it can be hard for non-fans to realize just how good a superstar is.
When I was 10 or 11 in the early 90s, I had heard of Micheal Jordan --
everyone had heard of Michael Jordan -- but I wasn't much of a basketball fan.
My older brother joined a fantasy basketball league, and since I was the
computer guy in the family he asked me to make a spreadsheet designed to help
with the draft. We put in all the stats from the prior year and calculated how
many fantasy points each player would have gotten. It was only when I sorted
the chart and saw how much of an outlier MJ was I realized why he was such a
big deal.

~~~
notahacker
The corollary of that argument is that it's also hard for statisticians to
disentangle individual brilliance from being the _focal point_ of a team whose
other parts are also _massively_ better than their average opponent.

Of course, you have to be a truly exceptional player for Barcelona to build
their team around you for several years, but I still doubt Messi stats would
stand out quite so far above other top European forwards if he'd been, say, a
winger for 2010-14 Liverpool instead.

It would be interesting to see how well the statistical advantages for Messi
and Ronaldo hold up in matches which are relatively even contests
(internationals, late stage Champions League and El Clasico) as opposed to
their clubs' routine thrashings of weaker La Liga teams. I'd expect the goals
(and shooting efficiency) to remain high but some of the other advantages
might not be quite so evident. The article does cover his goals and assists
contribution for his recent World Cup performances, but that's one stat and an
acknowledged small sample.

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minusSeven
The data and the analysis are excellent but I don't think people should rely
completely on data to make the analysis as sometimes the data can be
misleading.

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usaphp
Superb!

Is there any way to see who is who behind those dots on charts, very
interesting.

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Shorel
It would have been great to include older data to be able to compare Messi to
Maradona and Pelé.

~~~
DAddYE
Even so, the today's football/soccer is way different than before, much more
raw speed, body weight, different balls etc...

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infinitebattery
I really need to see an analysis of Tim Howard and his blocking ability now.

~~~
aptwebapps
[http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/tim-howard-lost-but-he-
ju...](http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/tim-howard-lost-but-he-just-had-the-
best-match-of-the-world-cup/)

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hmart
The World Cup star is not Messi, is James Rodriguez.

------
blablablaat
"This content is not available in your location."

Fuck off.

~~~
aptwebapps
[http://gfycat.com/MessyOffbeatAsianelephant](http://gfycat.com/MessyOffbeatAsianelephant)

Tbh, it's great goal but hardly an outlier. There have been many as good
already this World Cup. Nor is it the type of goal that you only see from
Messi.

~~~
gejjaxxita
I think the primary point is that Messi scores goals from that position an
extremely high (12%) proportion of times.

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megablast
> In their Group F World Cup match late last month, Argentina and Iran were
> still deadlocked after 90 minutes. With the game in stoppage time and the
> score tied at 0-0, Lionel Messi took the ball near the right corner of the
> penalty area, held it for a moment, then broke left, found his seam, took
> his strike and curled it in from 29 yards.

So he didn't score a goal for the first 90 minutes, or he just wasn't on the
field? If he is so good, why did it take him 90 minutes to score the first
goal?

~~~
manojlds
One guy doesn't make a team.

~~~
megablast
Oh for sure. But it is funny thing to highlight the great goal he got in the
last few minutes, when he didn't get a goal for the first 89 or so. Soccer is
a funny game though.

~~~
warrenmcwin
"...found his seam..." Ever heard of the chink in the armor? It's more
impressive to persevere for 89 minutes and score in the 90th entirely
unassisted. Watch him play and try to call his "funny soccer" anything but
impressive.

------
Bulkington
Strictly a casual 'soccer' fan in US, but here are a few problems for adoption
of the game--again, as an American sports fan, journalist and media manager.
And please, help me understand (and I promise not get into the usual 'no
action,' 'too many drama queens' objections--although it is confusing when a
player falls down like he's been stabbed, and the player who stabbed him also
suddenly falls down.)

Messi is a freakish talent, but how many of his exceptional maneuvers
translate into goals? I don't know Messi's ratio, but would Michael Jordan's
talent have meant so much if style points didn't also show up on the
scoreboard? We make fun of baseball because a successful batting average is
three in ten (.300) and .400 is god-like. Messi's miracles pay off, sure, but
-- for the casual American fan -- the effort needs to ring the bell or it
doesn't count.

Top level competition (Euro leagues) is a completely different game (and
vastly superior) to what the kids play here, or even school boys and
universities. It's like pro baseball vs. weekend softball. And very few moms
and dads, even a full generation into 'the soccer generation' know much or
care.

Americans won't go 'all in' if they can't win. Belgium: 11 million people?
That's Tennessee and Alabama. The day an SEC team can go to Europe and
compete, that's when the US has become a soccer power.

I love the World Cup--once every four years. Those guys are tremendous
athletes with freakish skills. But I still don't care. I leave the broadcast
on for background noise, like golf or NASCAR or CNN.

Please HN, correct me if I'm wrong.

~~~
nnethercote
> Messi is a freakish talent, but how many of his exceptional maneuvers
> translate into goals?

Did you read the article? It answers that question about eleven different
ways.

