
Shell's 1991 warning: climate changing ‘faster than at any time since ice age’ - jonathansizz
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/28/shell-film-warning-climate-change-rate-faster-than-end-ice-age
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leonroy
There's a concept called 'first mover disadvantage'. None of these companies
are idiots, I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that they _all_ knew of climate
change decades prior to 1991. However the way our system prices externalities
(very ineffectively) and focuses on rewarding quarterly earnings rather than a
longer term approach creates a total and utter disincentive for any forward
thinking CEO to make a big step away from the company's core markets.

We can hold Shell's feet to the fire on this sure, but that achieves nothing
apart from disincentivizing self awareness within these large companies. What
we need is a way to push the entire industry towards more environmentally
sustainable practices not penalize them for talking about it.

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jackmott
The reason this issue is so hotly contested is because there is no way
(probably) for the fossil fuel industry to solve this problem, other than to
cease existing, or completely convert themselves to another business. Yes I am
aware of geo-engineering ideas and sequestering ideas, but nobody has a
practical plan that can really work. If it was as simple as using a new
refrigerant or putting catalytic converters on cars, the industry would have
done that, as they did with carbon monoxide and ozone layer issues. This
problem's solution is much much much more painful. I think our only hope is
for solar/wind/nuclear to get so good nobody wants fossil fuels any more. That
isn't easy either, but it could happen, and we should be trying really really
hard.

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mikeash
The oil companies ought to have been pushing for solar/wind/nuclear to get
that good more quickly. If they knew there was a problem and knew that the
solution required making their business obsolete, then the proper choice is to
make themselves obsolete rather than waiting for others to do it for them.

But, nope, let's screw over future generations because that's too hard.

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menacingly
This is exactly the kind of haughty idealism that leads to nothing ever
getting done on contentious issues

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mikeash
How is "figure out a way to transform your business so you don't wreck the
planet" haughty idealism, and how does suggesting that as the correct approach
result in nothing ever getting done?

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erikpukinskis
> How is "figure out a way to transform your business so you don't wreck the
> planet" haughty idealism

Because it's like asking a tree to figure out how to become a meadow of
flowers. Sure, the meadow could just as easily exist in the same place, but
the mechanisms by which the tree became a tree can't be used to turn it into a
field of flowers.

Certain kinds of change can only come by displacing what's there with
something new.

> and how does suggesting that as the correct approach result in nothing ever
> getting done?

Because the people you're assigning to do it have no natural motivation to do
it, and are completely psychically cut off from the information signals that
could guide someone through the successful foundation of a clean energy
company.

You've got the right approach, you're just looking to the wrong people to get
it done.

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mikeash
Some companies manage to disrupt themselves rather than waiting for upstarts
to do it for them. It's not impossible. It may well be quite difficult, but I
don't see why we can't criticize companies for failing to do difficult things.

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alexvoda
We can criticize them for failing to do/failing to attempt to do, but we
should not expect them to do it. Companies will naturally be opposed to
developing something that threatens their main revenue stream. Expecting them
to do it results in nothing getting done.

~~~
mikeash
I don't get that last sentence. How do my expectations influence what they do?

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arzt
If these guys were knowingly creating massive externalities, and they are
blamed and penalized for it, how do you put a price on the damage without
putting a stop to modern civilization? State AGs are now taking these
companies to task much in the same way big tobacco was tried. Not everyone
smokes, but everyone participates in petroleum fueled global economy.

