
Are investors moonstruck? Lunar phases and stock returns (2006) - Hooke
http://escholarship.org/uc/item/70z5b0ng#page-1
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conistonwater
It's worth noting the less-than-well-known saying that "correlation does not
imply correlation" (which is a very nice turn of phrase too). [1] In the
introduction they say the effect is significant at the 5% level, which for an
exploratory data analysis doesn't mean much.

[1] [http://andrewgelman.com/2014/08/04/correlation-even-imply-
co...](http://andrewgelman.com/2014/08/04/correlation-even-imply-correlation/)

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rahrahrah
Reddit discussion

[https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/5fd8q3/to_predic...](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/5fd8q3/to_predict_the_stock_market_with_some_indicator_x/)

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conistonwater
Since I said "correlation does not imply correlation", not "correlation does
not imply causation", I'm not sure what you're replying to.

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rahrahrah
If you're not sure just ignore it. It's there for everybody else.

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Declanomous
Interesting study, but I think the experimental design was pretty weak. _The
Moon Affects The Stock Market_ is a trendy headline, but the results are
basically meaningless without a plausible method of action.

I'd like to see some data about why the moon affects the stocks. If it were
me, I'd break the data in to smaller time series and try to control for the
known effects of the moon. Does the full moon have the same effect on the
stock market on overcast nights as it does on clear nights? Is the effect
significant for countries and cities with lots of artificial lighting compared
to those where the moon provides more artificial light?

Personally, I'd be interested in how stocks traded at particular exchanges
did. I live in Chicago right now, and the light pollution is so bad I barely
notice the moon. I'm always amazed by how much a full moon illuminates the
world when I am elsewhere. Does the full moon keep people up at night? Maybe
people stay out later when the moon is full because the world is more brightly
lit. Then they show up to the markets tired/hungover, affecting market
performance. Chicago has a HUGE financial sector. If controlling for the city
is too difficult, you may be able to look at commodities, like grain, since
Chicago has a huge commodity exchange.

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pkghost
IANAA (I am not an astrologer), but I have a hunch they'd say it has to with
"energy", not light ;)

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jondiggsit
If you haven't noticed, people are more wild just before a full moon. Always a
good idea to plan parties the night before.

This is just my observation but I've found it to be very helpful in social
situations. I could, from an empirical pov, understand this to be true in
trading as well.

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ggggtez
Isn't a more likely answer that calendar months affect stock?

