
California estimates 25.5M residents will get virus in next 8 weeks - joe_the_user
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-california-estimates-25point5-million-residents-56percent-of-the-state-will-get-virus-in-next-8-weeks.html
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boznz
So basically in 10 weeks the economy will be fucked and everybody will have it
regardless of what measures they take.

Anyone else seeing the problem?

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Fjolsvith
Most will be asymptomatic or mildly affected. The seriously ill will be
treated with the newly approved Chloroquine drug and recover fully in 6 days.

What's the problem again?

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mullingitover
There's a great epidemic calculator here ->
[http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html](http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html)

Curious what the true parameters are for this outbreak, R0 must be pretty
high.

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throw03172019
That is quite the estimate. I’d love to see the data behind that number.

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joe_the_user
Back of the envelope:

California had 18 death last I checked. A good estimate for real infections is
800 _current-deaths = 14400 infected [1]. If doubling time is 4 days, that 's
14 doubling periods. so 14400 _ (2^14) = 23,5929,600. I'd guess this is worst
case, not likely-case but still terrifying.

