
Why are we so surprised by the outcome of the 2016 presidential election? - henrik_w
http://allendowney.blogspot.com/2016/11/why-are-we-so-surprised.html
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nilkn
I've been thinking this since the election results came in. A 1/3 chance to
win for Trump is entirely within the realm of possibility, and a Trump victory
doesn't mean that the model was wrong or even that the probability was wrong.

For instance, suppose I give you a three-sided die with faces labeled 0,1,1. I
tell you that there's a 1/3 chance you'll roll a 0 and a 2/3 chance you'll
roll a 1. You roll the die and get a 0. You can't then conclude that I was
"wrong" about your having a lesser chance at a 0 than a 1 just because you
rolled a 0. It was always entirely possible that you'd roll a 0 despite it
being the less probable result.

(Totally off-topic, but this made me think of what a three-sided die might
actually look like. Here's one:
[http://www.shapeways.com/product/RBVF4Z6JY/modern-
art-d3-3-s...](http://www.shapeways.com/product/RBVF4Z6JY/modern-
art-d3-3-sided-
die?modelId=2046022&awc=6920_1479152668_e1aa5774696bc8da1af589b482bf288a&utm_source=affiliatewindow&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=affiliate&optionId=41894904))

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squozzer
"Software has eaten the world, and [Trump's victory] is what's been vomited
back up."

