

Apple topped 53% U.S. smartphone market share in Q4 2012 - akos
http://venturebeat.com/2013/01/04/old-phones-and-new-users-are-key-reasons-apple-topped-50-u-s-smartphone-market-share/

======
jacalata
Well, that's...surprisingly different to the ComScore numbers released
today(/yesterday). [http://mashable.com/2013/01/04/apple-smartphone-market-
share...](http://mashable.com/2013/01/04/apple-smartphone-market-
share-35-percent/)

Is Kantar actually tracking sales share, rather than ownership? That seems to
be the only way these two sets of numbers reconcile, and is plausible from the
wording of the article.

~~~
rednukleus
I love the fact that the article you linked, which is about how Google have
gained 1.1% marketshare, and Apple gained 0.7% marketshare, is called "Apple's
U.S. Smartphone Market Share Rises" with a massive picture of an iPhone.

~~~
lostlogin
Of that 1.1% I wounded how much is Samsung? I'm picking they had a bigger
growth than android.

~~~
rednukleus
From the article, Samsung grew 1.2% of all phones (including feature phones).
So I'd say they almost certainly did grow faster than Android as a whole. I
wouldn't be that surprised if Android minus Samsung contracted slightly in the
quarter.

------
rednukleus
It will be very interesting to see how much of this bump they can hold in Q1
2012.

Also, the article downplays how much RIM got _slaughtered_. Not just "down 6%"
but from 7.0 to 1.4% marketshare. Ouch.

~~~
ajross
It's not so much a "bump" as a cycle. They release a phone every year, this
was that quarter. Clearly they won't sell the same number of units next
quarter. Their competitors ship far more (and more varied) products and don't
really show that kind of behavior. So next quarter we'll be treated to "iOS is
shrinking!" posts which are equally silly. And next fall the circle of life
will repeat.

As you correctly point out, the real news in this data is that Blackberry
sales dropped by 80%, which is so shocking that I wonder if a digit got
slipped somewhere.

~~~
Steko
"so shocking that I wonder if a digit got slipped somewhere."

Sounds like Verizon flipped a certain digit at RIM. Possibly a good amount of
August 2012 iPhone syndrome as well, "don't buy a Blackberry now, the new ones
are coming in January"

------
mrb
The 53% number is for a very narrow period of time: the 12 weeks ending on Nov
25, 2012, which just coincides with the release of iPhone 5...

IOW: nothing to see here, move along. Like jacalata pointed out, the average
market share of iOS, measured on a longer period of time, is closer to 35%:
[http://mashable.com/2013/01/04/apple-smartphone-market-
share...](http://mashable.com/2013/01/04/apple-smartphone-market-
share-35-percent/)

------
Steko
This dance is now familiar. Apple does better than 50% in their release
quarter and then slowly sinks to something like 15%-20% in the months prior to
the next phone's release.

The interesting thing is that this time Apple launched the iPhone 5 to more or
less the whole world in the first 3 months and change and so most people think
they're moving to a semi-annual release schedule.

------
calciphus
I'm always entertained when these numbers are so drastically different. These
guys are getting their numbers from interviews. Think about that.

Wikipedia used to keep a meta-table of a bunch of different sources and market
share numbers, sadly that's gone.

------
dannyr
I'm getting confused with all these stats but it's just sloppy reporting by
the tech press.

This writer didn't even mention that this is just new smartphone sales instead
of overall shares.

I thought VentureBeat is one of the better ones. I guess not.

------
nirvana
There's a tendency in the "tech" press to focus on a very narrow idea of
"share". When they say "market share" they are almost always talking about new
unit sales. This is because it's a lot cheaper to just take reports from
companies that issue them (as press releases) and then write up a story from
that... and these companies are analyzing only the most recent sales (for the
most party.)

Actual market share is something quite different, as it includes all of the
previously sold, but still operating devices.

The share relevant to developers is still another matter, as it must take into
account the operating system the developer is targetting and how many devices
still in use are using that operating system.

So, if you're a developer for high end mobile games, you might require Android
Jelly Bean and iOS 6. Thus the question of where to direct your resources
would best be answered by "What is the addressable market size for these two
operating systems?"

I don't know the answer to that, but too often the torrent of shallow media
news talking about "Share" that only talks about the current sales is taken as
some sort of relevant long term value.

It's like saying Las Vegas is cold because you took the temperature one day in
January. Worse you took that temperature in a freezer, rather than out in the
open air. (Eg you're not even measuring the same thing the conclusion is
about.)

~~~
rednukleus
The share of phones sold in the quarter is of most interest to investors. The
share of installed base is more interesting to developers.

One major difference between the two that is often overlooked is that if
someone upgrades their old phone and stops using the old one, it counts toward
the former, but not toward the latter. Developers only really care about new
users, and users who are switching platforms.

~~~
cremnob
I'd like to know from some developers if their apps are monetizing better on
Android with the larger install base than it is on iOS.

~~~
rednukleus
From what I've heard it's about even now, because iOS users tend to buy a
larger number of apps at a higher average cost.

~~~
mtgx
But probably not for long, since Android is growing at 5x the pace of the
iPhone globally, and about 3x the pace of iOS in total.

~~~
pyre
Global growth probably doesn't matter as much if your app isn't hasn't been
localized to all of those places. For example, growth of Android in a country
where most people don't speak English isn't going to do much for an app
written for an English audience.

------
salem
At what point does the DOJ declare that they have a dominant share of the
smartphone market, and that there should be increased oversight of anti-
competitive behavior?

