
If the Panama Canal gets a rival - lando2319
http://worldif.economist.com/article/8/what-if-the-panama-canal-gets-a-rival-trench-warfare-in-nicaragua
======
brianbreslin
Disclaimer, I'm part Panamanian, that being said, I find this highly
suspicious. A lot of my Nicaraguan friends are also highly doubtful this will
ever take off. The big problems for Nicaragua with this are:

\- Horrible ecological impact (fisheries in Caribbean are already [1]

\- Many think this is an excuse for the politicians to get cushy land/resort
deals along the proposed route and near the entrances to the canal [2]

\- Some think it is really never going to materialize, but Chinese owned
resorts will pop up on each end.

\- Nicaragua doesn't have the infrastructure to undertake such a big
engineering project (human talent, electrical, etc)

\- The public hasn't had any say in this so far [2]

1\.
[http://e360.yale.edu/feature/nicaragua_canal_a_giant_project...](http://e360.yale.edu/feature/nicaragua_canal_a_giant_project_with_huge_environmental_costs/2871/)

2\. [http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/Latin-America-
Monito...](http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/Latin-America-
Monitor/2013/0807/Nicaragua-s-canal-controversy-builds)

~~~
boyter
My wife is Panamanian and having just recently traveled there I got the same
impression. I was asking everyone about it and they held the same opinions to
yourself.

It's also worth noting that the reason the canal was put in Panama over
Nicaragua was due to earthquake activity which Panama did not have.

~~~
jabits
Not the main reason. As always, politics really ruled with US-Columbia
relations factoring in heavily (Panama was a province of Columbia early on in
planning), as well as the existing US-owned Panama Railway.

~~~
ninguem2
It's Colombia, please.

~~~
jotm
Most effective way to piss of a Colombian is to call their country Columbia
:-)

------
julianpye
Please note that this is article is part of a special section of the Economist
this week called 'What If'. It is highly speculative and more about the
potential of scenarios and alternatives rather than a real article. As an
example another article is a retrospective on the first 100 days of Hillary
Clinton as president, having won against Marco Rubio.

I love the Economist and find the section thought provoking, but hope it is
not a trend to soften up the paper.

------
PhasmaFelis
It's weird how they compare China's (hypothetical) desire for a naval military
presence in the Atlantic to the USA's presence in the Pacific. Guys, the USA
has _coasts_ on the Atlantic and Pacific. No one can say we don't have a
legitimate interest in defending our borders at least. I can't think of any
reason for China to have carrier groups steaming around the Atlantic other
than "lookin' for trouble."

~~~
realityking
Pray tell, why do you have a carrier in the Indian Ocean?

~~~
BurningFrog
The US is to a quite good approximation, the only naval power on the planet.

~~~
pvaldes
It depends on what we call "naval power".

China is probably the country of the planet with more "naval muscle" in fact.
The chinese fishership float is huge and vital for their economy (because the
very lucrative Chinese Acuaculture depends on the world marine fisheries).

So instead to having a big militar float to justify spending ridiculous
amounts of tax money in ruinous wars created here and there, China have a big
civil float to earn big money with fisheries and commerce... in the face of
the other countries.

~~~
BurningFrog
I'm talking about naval military power.

------
mschuster91
> After all, what wouldn’t China pay to see one of its naval fleets one day
> emerging from the Central American jungle right under America’s nose?

Not that the US Navy couldn't already shoot up entire fleets with missiles,
but when a fleet passes through a tiny canal, well, it's a canal and a tiny
nuke is enough to blow up the entire fleet with no way to escape...

~~~
InclinedPlane
It's 2015, fleets don't move without being observed today. Every major power
has surveillance satellites specifically designed for keeping track of naval
fleets. A Chinese fleet rushing around the world on a provocative trajectory
toward the continental US is going to gain a lot of attention and a lot of
company very rapidly.

~~~
BurningFrog
To monitor an inland canal you just need a guy and a lawn chair.

~~~
InclinedPlane
Also, the idea that any country in central America would intentionally make an
enemy of the US for a little money is not entirely believable.

------
prewett
I'll admit to being skeptical, too, but I seem to recall reading that people
thought that the US was not going to be able to finish the original canal and
that the whole project was foolhardy. I think the US was just more tenacious
than France before it (also people had learned about the role of mosquitoes in
disease and sprayed the mosquitoes)

China has a very long history of massive building projects, so if Nicaragua is
willing, and the similar sentiment as the first canal makes me hesitant to
dismiss it.

~~~
pchristensen
The book The Path Between The Seas is an incredible history of the Panama
Canal. [http://www.amazon.com/The-Path-Between-
Seas-1870-1914-ebook/...](http://www.amazon.com/The-Path-Between-
Seas-1870-1914-ebook/dp/B002FK3U4Q/)

Short version: the French tried to build it as an investment, but the vision
they could sell (sea level canal) couldn't be built. USA took over and muscled
through because it was strategically important to the govt and it was a huge
jobs program and stimulus to American companies selling food, transportation,
steel, construction equipment, medicine, etc to the 30k+ workers. Also gave
electrical projects to a young GE!

------
chadlung
Looking at the proposed map of the canal how does this work when Lake
Nicaragua [1] is freshwater? Even with locks I'm guessing salt water from the
sea will slowly contaminate (seep) into the lake causing big changes for the
ecosystem and local population.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Nicaragua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Nicaragua)

~~~
CPLX
Harbors generally are freshwater, and boundaries between fresh and sea water
are innumerable, if you stop and think about it for a few seconds. If this was
a real problem it would have contaminated Lake Michigan and the Hudson Valley
by the same means.

The reason it hasn't is that water generally doesn't flow uphill.

~~~
pavement
I guess 32.7 meters above sea level is reasonably uphill.

I'm too lazy to calculate the approximate volume of fresh water that
represents, based on the lake's surface area. Pretty safe to say that the rest
of the lake's volume, at and below sea level wouldn't be rendered brackish too
easily.

Although, given China's penchant for environmental accidents, I wouldn't put
it past them, if all that additional lake water above sea level were to get
skimmed off the top by an accidental spill into the ocean.

~~~
tjradcliffe
For comparison, the Great Lakes are about 60 m above sea level (Kingston, at
the junction of Lake Ontario and the St Lawrence, is at 200 ft). Salt water
inundation has not been a problem. However, invasive species (zebra mussels,
for example) have been. They are fresh water species that get sucked up into
ballast water in other ports (many of which are on rivers or estuaries) and
pumped out in other destinations. There are procedures to avoid this
(exchanging fresh-water ballast for salt water while at sea, for example) but
those procedures are inevitably implemented by humans, who are certain to
eventually make a mistake sufficient to cause contamination.

------
caf
I think it's more likely that China would finance a canal across the Kra
Isthmus first.

------
jakozaur
Back on the envelope calculations suggest that is not profitable investment.
Even with optimistic assumptions:

[http://noelmaurer.typepad.com/aab/2015/01/the-nicaragua-
cana...](http://noelmaurer.typepad.com/aab/2015/01/the-nicaragua-canal-still-
makes-no-business-sense-now-with-numbers.html)

~~~
rm445
Not a profitable investment on a 15-year timescale. Potentially profitable
over 25 years (according to the linked estimates) - and this is for a project
with a 50-year concession, with a 50-year extension allowed for.

Perhaps it would be silly for private investors to pile in hoping for a short-
term return, but over the life of the canal it could potentially be a great
investment for sufficiently long-term entities (such as nation states) to
invest in.

------
lisper
Everyone seems to be focusing on the economic and environmental issues but
missing the elephant in the room. Even the original article misses the mark:

> After all, what wouldn’t China pay to see one of its naval fleets one day
> emerging from the Central American jungle right under America’s nose?

It's not what China would pay to have its naval fleets _traverse_ the canal,
it's what China would pay to have a legitimate-sounding reason to have its
naval fleet _stationed_ at either end. It's a similar motivation for building
those artificial islands in the South China Sea. The canal itself is a red
herring.

------
protomyth
_The two-lock waterway could take vessels with a proposed freight capacity of
25,000 20-foot containers, or 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs); currently the
biggest ships have a capacity of around 19,000 TEUs and make up a tiny
fraction of the world fleet. Even the expanded Panama Canal, due to open in
2016, is limited to taking cargoes of 13,000 TEUs, so ships that otherwise
would have rounded Cape Horn or gone via Suez would be able to move more
easily between east and west._

That's about the only reason I can see for building this canal.

------
JacobAldridge
Does anybody here have experience as an expat living in Panama? I've heard
good things about the quality of life and tax benefits (for
immigrants/expats), plus a reasonable cost of living. I wonder if they're
accurate, and what impact this rival canal might have on those conditions in
the unlikely event it proceeds.

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GnarfGnarf
It is more likely that Peak Oil will kick in before the project is completed.
There will be a permanent change in the order of things, it will no longer be
economical to import plastic doodads from China, world shipping will decline
and the Nicaragua canal will lie half-finished like stone statues on Easter
Island.

------
lchengify
Related NYTimes article from earlier this year [1]

[1] [http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/26/travel/26nicaragua-
cover.h...](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/26/travel/26nicaragua-
cover.html?_r=0)

------
dghughes
How well could an ocean-going ship float in freshwater lake Nicaragua?

And I doubt the lake would stay clear after ships drag in seawater.

~~~
donarb
Probably just as good as it does in Gatun Lake in the Panama Canal.

Ships would "drag" in very little salt water because the lakes are above sea
level. Since locks operate using gravity the water flows back out to sea.

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themeekforgotpw
Like China's "One Belt, One Road"?

