
Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems (1995) [pdf] - evilsimon
http://web.mit.edu/sysdyn/road-maps/D-4468-1.pdf
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tunesmith
This paper appears to be the description of the "World Model" which led to the
"Limits to Growth" book series. The paper is by Jay Forrester, and another
influential name in the field is Donella Meadows.

"Limits to Growth" made several forecasts for humanity that basically
predicted mass negative changes, with best-case scenario being that it would
settle out with humanity having an average quality of life equal to that of
what eastern europe has (or perhaps had 10-20 years ago).

The forecast gets updated every ten years or so, and I've lost track of what
the most recent updates said. They generally claim that the metrics are
tracking what the model predicted in its worst-case scenario, which would lead
to quite a lot of horrible worldwide societal changes in the 2020-2030 range.

The model has generally been ignored and criticized for being too pessimistic
and not based on rigorous data.

When they talk about levers for change, one of the most powerful ones they
recommend is changing the goal entirely, in this case removing the emphasis on
"growth". It's interesting to think about changing the definition of GDP,
since our entire definition of recession and depression is based off of that.

It sounds like some of their prescriptions to avoid the worst outcomes are
pretty draconian, like limiting food production to help control population
growth.

~~~
MawNicker
GDP is a terrible metric. It encodes all sorts of micro-regressions as growth.
For instance, a hostile society induces more people to live alone; They
purchase a new everything. GDP goes up but utilization goes down. If it was
our own business we'd fix it. When it's our society we're too busy clawing
after that newly minted GDP.

~~~
randyrand
Your example doesn't really prove to me that GDP is a terrible metric for
economic growth.

Not perfect, sure. But also better than any other metric I know of.

~~~
tunesmith
What's more interesting is to think of another metric - one that doesn't
calculate economic growth differently, but measures something else entirely
that isn't so built around economic growth.

Depends on what you want to maximize, though. Income equality? Planet health?
Life expectancy? Some sort of happiness index? Probability of becoming an
interstellar species?

~~~
randyrand
Interestingly, all those other metrics you listed are very tied to GDP and
economic growth, which means GDP growth is a decent measure for all those
other measures.

Maximizing one is not the answer. We want to maximize all of them. And in that
sense GDP is a great measure since it impacts all of them greatly.

Even sustainability is linked to GDP growth. Green technologies are typically
the most expensive, and we need growth so that we can one day afford them
across the board.

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tunesmith
Can anyone here speak to the value of actually designing systems dynamics
models - stocks and flows - and how that has helped you in your role?

To me it seems easier said than done as the process of surfacing all
assumptions and accurately reflecting reality in your model - at least to a
useful level - strikes me as extraordinarily exhaustive and time-consuming. To
the point that it may only be useful if you can devote quite a lot of time and
money to it.

~~~
Mz
I do not have first-hand experience, but SimCity has been used to dump real
life data in it for modeling purposes and been found reasonably effective. I
read this years ago. A quick Google turned up this article:

[http://chicago.curbed.com/2015/1/16/10001642/reallife-
simcit...](http://chicago.curbed.com/2015/1/16/10001642/reallife-simcity-
being-used-to-design-a-massive-development)

~~~
zygomega
I was at a meeting just yesterday, where I said, the state borrows when rates
are low. Just like SimCity.

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drallison
This is a revision of a 1971 paper based upon congressional testimony. It is
an important paper to read if you are interested in social systems and
modeling.

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sergeyfilippov
"We may now be living in a “golden age” where, in spite of the world-wide
feeling of malaise, the quality of life is, on the average, higher than ever
before in history and higher now than the future offers."

