
iPhone Future - shawndumas
https://mondaynote.com/iphone-future-7ce9c2e4fad4#.u85p7kmhu
======
surds
After a series of Android devices, my first iPhone was the 6 Plus. The main
reasons for me switching over were: 1\. Ridiculously reliable battery. (People
who have used both platforms will mostly agree, I think.) 2\. 6 Plus was the
first iPhone that did not seem tiny to me. 3\. I really wanted to use it
myself for a while and form my own opinions.

A year and a half of use later, my thoughts: 1\. Totally awesome battery
experience. 2\. It's good, stable, reliable but it gets so... boring.

My next phone, whenever it is, is probably going to be the largest Nexus
device available.

On a side note, it is so great to read a series of comments about iOS and
Android that does not degenerate into a trolling competition.

~~~
cageface
FWIW battery life on my Nexus 6p has been very good and also consistent. Nexus
is definitely the way to go if you want an Android phone.

------
LargeCompanies
As a seven year iPhone owner I'm bored by it!

Why isn't it water proof yet? Why hasn't Apple released a wireless charging
feature? Why haven't they come up with something freaking amazing..iWatch no
one wants that. Apple TV with Apple cable TV service people might want that
but why haven't they bought Dish who has sling TV or made similar purchases?

I don't think I'm the only bored iPhone owner?

~~~
indianhippie
I couldn't agree with you more. I'm bored. The thing is I like the simplicity
of iPhones and I have been using them for past 7 years as well. Now it got to
a point where small incremental features were not doing anything for me. I
switched to Nexus 6P recently. It is one hell of a phone. So many features, so
much customization! The access to file system (not root) is one thing that I
would not be able to live without anymore. Having directories to put files and
music in is so simple and similar to using a Mac/PC. I do miss iMessage and
FaceTime though. If the rumor about WWDC bringing iMessage to Android is true
I don't see a reason to go back to the iPhone.

~~~
cageface
I can't figure out why Apple has neglected their stock keyboard for so long.
They _finally_ added autosuggestions but their keyboard still lags far behind
third party offerings in speed, feature set, and flexibility. And third party
keyboards are still so buggy on iOS as to be almost unusable. About 90% of my
use of a smart phone is messaging in some form so this is a big deal.

And iMessage is buggy enough that I long ago switched to WhatsApp and haven't
looked back. Apple makes great hardware but their software is increasingly
falling behind the competition.

~~~
noblethrasher
On the other hand, iOS is the only platform which has a default keyboard that
lets me use typographically appropriate characters, such as actual smart
quotes (“” ’), real ellipsis (…), and the correct hyphens (- – —).

This has been true since at least iOS 5.

------
Oletros
> particularly when compared to the company’s competitors whose reliance on an
> increasingly fragmented Android macrocosm isn’t likely to lead to a
> polished, reliable experience.

I would know why he says that Android fragmentation is increasing and what he
means with fragmentatoin

~~~
jsjohnst
What percentage of the market is running Marshmellow? How many are even 5.0+?
That's one serious indicator of fragmentation alone (there's a lot more), and
trends don't show it improving.

Edit:

Here's a link to some numbers from Google [0]. Per their own chart, ~55% of
Android users are running a 3 year old or older OS.

[0]
[https://developer.android.com/about/dashboards/index.html#Pl...](https://developer.android.com/about/dashboards/index.html#Platform)

~~~
bobbyi_settv
The average consumer doesn't know or care if there phone is on 4.0 or 4.1 or
whatever. They care if their phone works well and integrates well with the
services they care about. There isn't much sign that Apple is going to
overtake Android in the ways that matter anytime soon, regardless of which
exact version your are running.

~~~
jsjohnst
They care when the app the want to install doesn't run and they can't upgrade
their phone. I know that's been a factor for many who have switched back to
iOS that I know.

Furthermore, I made ZERO claims iOS would overtake Android (very likely never
will, in fact I'd bet on it never happening), I answered a question re:
fragmentation. I also responded factually with a link to an unarguable source
(so the down voters prove their hater mentality denying facts, but alas).

~~~
chipperyman573
There hasn't really been a major issue with app compatibility since 2.3. Even
so, all but 2.3% of android phones are running 4.x or above.

[http://www.statista.com/statistics/271774/](http://www.statista.com/statistics/271774/)

~~~
zanny
If you are stuck targeting Android API version 14 _forever_ , that is a
problem. It means Google can never introduce anything new that people can
actually use without alienating a portion of the userbase.

Albeit, that was also a perceived huge issue four years ago with 2.3 and
version 9, and today all those 2.3 devices are mostly gone.

But in the same way the mhz race was a limited time thing, and after that
personal computer sales slowed drastically because the year over year
improvements have been much more minute, Google cannot just assume that the
planned obsolesce of contract phones will force users to change hardware to
keep pace with the OS. A lot of the 4.x era Android devices will be "good
enough" for many people in the same way Core 2 was "good enough" for most
casual PC users.

And we have seen the fallout of that. Users do not care if their Windows XP is
catastrophically insecure when no longer updated, they keep using it until
disaster strikes. And the same is bound to happen to all these Android phones
that stop getting updates.

I don't think I've ever seen greater technical debt than the accumulated mess
of Android device drivers and the OEM habit of forking the kernel and
violating the GPL to stick proprietary blobs in and then freeze the kernel,
which means every device is on a forced obsolescence cycle whenever their
kernel can no longer work with the latest Android requirements.

------
bitmapbrother
>After letting Samsung and others take the lead in large screen smartphones
(5.5” or larger phablets), Apple Finally introduced its own large iPhone 6
Plus in September 2014.

What an ignorant comment. Samsung pioneered the large screen smartphone. They
took the risk when everyone was mocking the size of their phones as if they
were jokes. Once the market proved them correct everyone else rushed in -
including Apple. To belittle this accomplishment speaks to this person's bias
towards Apple.

Apple never let Samsung take the lead in large screen smartphones - instead
they did what they usually do - wait for another player to create the market
and then move in on it.

~~~
skygazer
I think your description of what happened is exactly what is meant by "letting
Samsung and others take the lead" \-- Apple let itself be surpassed, in that
it could have done otherwise, but didn't.

------
post_break
I switched back from Android for the 6s because I was tired of fragmentation
and terrible battery life. I gave up a lot, customizations, amazing tweaks,
workflows, etc. I miss Android. There are so many things I can't do on iOS and
it frustrates me.

Siri is no comparison to Google now. (You make some sacrifices here)

Using iTunes to manage everything from apps to music is a buzzkill.

Homekit is a bag of hurt.

You are stuck with the default apps. Want to use Gmail or Outlook? Chrome?
Google Maps or Nokia Maps? Too bad.

I'm putting up with these compromises because at the time the 810 wasn't
performing well and on Android smaller screens means lower performance.

~~~
cdubzzz
> You are stuck with the default apps. Want to use Gmail or Outlook? Chrome?
> Google Maps or Nokia Maps? Too bad.

I'm confused. What do you mean by this?

~~~
post_break
If ask siri to route me somewhere it only opens Apple Maps. Same for clicking
on an email link.

Tap a URL and it opens Safari every time.

~~~
cdubzzz
Ah, gotcha. Does the Google app allow more custom integration?

[https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/google-app-search-made-
just/...](https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/google-app-search-made-
just/id284815942)

~~~
post_break
They are hard links in iOS, nothing you can do to change the default apps
unfortunately.

------
51Cards
He says that he sees other phones acting as a gateway to iPhones but I seem to
see the reverse happening. I have seen a number of users getting frustrated
with the lack of options in the iPhone market and moving on to other devices
more tailored to their personal needs. The "generic" iPhone is what they
bought first until they found more appealing devices that suited their
specific desires better. I know very few people who've gone from Android to
iPhone, especially in the last couple years.

~~~
sxg
Your anecdotal experiences definitely don't match my anecdotal experiences.

I think we need to be careful with these kinds of stories.

~~~
jsjohnst
I've seen a number of the transitions he saw a couple years ago, but an almost
equal number coming back now. Many I know that switched, are now coming back,
realizing that "cute customizations don't offset the fact things just work
better on iOS" (not looking to get in a debate, just repeating what they
said).

~~~
sxg
I personally switched from an iPhone 4S to an HTC One M7 for the bigger screen
size, but I switched back after less than 6 months because I couldn't get over
the lack of consistency in the Android experience. There were duplicate apps
with different design styles, multiple text messaging apps, etc. I found I had
more choices in general on Android, but it was rare to find an option that I
was completely satisfied with.

If I decide to go back to Android, I would only get a Nexus device with stock
Android. That may fix the majority of my complaints with Android.

~~~
jsjohnst
I really like my Nexus 6P (GoogleFi edition). It's a great phone all around.
Better than my 6S, no, but it's definitely a very good quality phone and one
I'd recommend if someone hated iOS.

------
cageface
_the iPhone will surely not go the way of the iPod. Apple’s “pocket computer”
is more likely to follow the trajectory of the Macintosh: It will continue to
take a significant but slowly growing share of the market, while pocketing a
large share of the profits._

Apple's market share continues to slide, as his own graph shows. If he expects
Apple's market share to _grow_ he should explain why. So far all the
indicators point the other way.

~~~
jsjohnst
Are we looking at the same article?

1) he shows no graph depicting anything to do with market share, let alone one
showing it sliding. There's two graphs, one showing a dip in sales volume,
another showing a dip in overall smartphone buying.

2) he did explain why he thought that, near the end of the article

~~~
cageface
iPhone sales are slowing, Android sales are not:

[http://www.macrumors.com/2016/06/02/meeker-2016-internet-
tre...](http://www.macrumors.com/2016/06/02/meeker-2016-internet-trends/)

So market share is declining.

The reasons he gives for Apple's market share to _increase_ are not new. They
have been losing ground despite the conditions he describes. If we wants to
argue that Apple is going to reverse this trend he needs to give new reasons.

~~~
jsjohnst
Apple was a very successful company selling Macs, with their low market share,
I personally feel the same can be said with iOS too. Apple has proven you
don't need majority market share to still have a controlling position in the
market.

~~~
cageface
That may be but that's not the claim made in the original article. He claimed
that iOS market share would _increase_ , which hasn't been the case for a
while now, so it demands some justification.

~~~
jsjohnst
He did offer justification. While I may not agree with it completely (and it
sounds like you don't either), our disagreement doesn't negate his own
personal opinion.

------
api
Now that paid apps are almost dead, what would Apple actually lose by opening
up the platform a little? I mean the app store model mostly. It's high degree
of restriction seems like it's holding the platform back and keeping it from
eating more market share from desktop.

Of course maybe that's not something they want. Apple still sells laptops and
desktops and a more open iOS could eat into Mac.

~~~
indianhippie
Paid apps are far from dead. I buy apps all the time. I bought a watch face
for Pebble half hour ago. Developers need to feed their families and I see
buying quality apps very similar to buying good coffee or food.

~~~
cageface
You are an outlier:

[http://www.recode.net/2016/6/8/11883518/app-boom-over-
snapch...](http://www.recode.net/2016/6/8/11883518/app-boom-over-snapchat-
uber)

All the indie iOS devs I know gave up long ago and took regular jobs writing
apps for companies that give the app away for free as part of some larger
business model.

