
One day offices will be a thing of the past - kschrader
http://www.virgin.com/richard-branson/blog/one-day-offices-will-be-a-thing-of-the-past
======
diego
In general, predicting that something that has been around for centuries will
be gone in decades is a bad bet. I wonder if Richard Branson has ever spent
long periods of time working alone.

I spent six months working remotely in 2004. What led me to start my company
in 2005 was not the desire to make money; I had enough back then. I really
missed the in-person interaction with other hackers. I was living in Buenos
Aires at the time. What I wanted did not exist there so I had to create it.

~~~
csallen
Hypothetically speaking, in a society in which "offices were a thing of the
past", a problem so common as loneliness would likely be solved in a multitude
of ways. Perhaps by changes in social conventions (e.g. friends working from
each other's places) or by entrepreneurs directly attacking the problem (e.g.
more coffee shops with fast internet, better tools for being social from home,
etc).

~~~
talmand
That's the same argument that is often heard against home-schooling, the lack
of socialization with other kids. What such people tend to not realize, or
ignore, is that there are opportunities for kids to get socialization other
than through school. True, it requires some effort on the parent's part but
that doesn't mean they are not there.

If you work remote then there are avenues for socialization outside of an
office space. Just because you find it lacking in one area doesn't mean that's
the same for everyone nor should you ignore the possible advantages.

~~~
pionar
The problem, though, is that there's no "forced" interaction with others
outside your own interests/background.

When I was in school, I was a white kid from a white neighborhood in a school
that was 50% black. Had I been homeschooled, even if I had interactions
outside of home, I would not have been exposed to the diversity of cultures.

I feel this will lead to a form of tribalism.

~~~
Jare
My anecdotal experience with homeschooled kids (my son is not old enough yet)
is that the lack of 'forced' exposure at school is more than compensated by
the habit of indulging and exploring one's curiosity. Especially because it
applies not just to social aspects but to any area of knowledge, activity and
culture. By the time the child's direct interests and background start showing
their limits (9-ish years old?), they will have plenty of opportunities for
interaction outside that circle (extracurricular classes, sports, travels,
etc). Homeschooled does not mean hermit.

~~~
bdunbar
> Homeschooled does not mean hermit.

Agreed. My three oldest were public schooled, my two-youngest are home
schooled. And what do they do after school hours? They're outside with their
friends in the neighborhood, doing kid stuff.

------
sologoub
I recently had a friendly debate about this with a friend (ex-Yahoo of the
golden years). The interesting thing is that a distributed organization, such
as Yahoo or Google, or pretty much any multi-national, telecommuting is
already in their work practices - whenever you have to coordinate across
office locations, you are effectively telecommuting to that office.

However, that's not the interesting part of the conversation. What we pretty
much both agreed on is that as the technology progresses, what we term in
person interactions will change drastically. Today, when we talk about virtual
reality, we are still bound in our conduits into that world.

Imagine if we had the ability to completely immerse ourselves into a virtual
reality, Matrix-style. In that world, your commute is nothing more than going
to a chair and loading the program. From there, you can appear anywhere in
that virtual reality. It can be in the shape of an office, or a green field
with desks, or no desk, pretty much anything the organization/group of people
wants. With the totality of human senses present, neither of us debating the
issue could see anything missing that a physical presence would provide.

Throw in the current trend of shrinking employment, and the future of the
office buildings in the next few hundred years seems to be in question.

Technologically, we are not there yet and it's not clear if this will happen
in our lifetime. However, it no longer feels like a pure sci-fi notion.

~~~
OmarIsmail
In my opinion we're actually a lot closer to it than most people may realize.
I think virtual-offices are going to be a reality in 3-5 years. This will be
driven by a few key technologies that are coming out in that timeframe:

    
    
      Oculus Rift - fully immersive digital environment
      Leapmotion/Kinect - natural UI for interacting in 3D
      Google Fiber - high-speed bandwidth networks
      Modern GPUs - can already produce movie-level graphics in realtime.
    

In fact, I could see the first prototype virtual offices being released within
18 months.

~~~
georgemcbay
I agree with you that this is certainly going to happen soon-ish, but 3-5
years is wildly optimistic, particularly when it comes to the
Leapmotion/Kinect (which are cool, but a long way away from resulting in
realistic 3D interaction) and Google Fiber (only applies if we all move to
Kansas City -- I know Google plans to roll this out to other markets, but in
3-5 years I wouldn't expect significant progress, maybe 1 or 2 other metro
areas max).

------
citricsquid

        Choice empowers people and makes for a more content workforce.
    

...

    
    
        people are going to look back and wonder why offices ever existed
    

The choice employees make is always going to be to work from home? Surely
_forced_ attendance at an office every day 9 - 5 will be looked back on as
something that should never have existed, but offices disappearing completely
seems unlikely.

~~~
untog
Agreed. I enjoy working in an office environment. My ideal would maybe be four
days in the office instead of five, but I wouldn't want to go without it
entirely.

~~~
Fishkins
That setup works well for me. I work from home Mon and/or Fri, and I'm always
in the office Tue through Thur. It's nice to save some commute time and being
able to really focus on coding, but I think I'd go crazy doing it every day.
There are also lots of conversations I have with coworkers that wouldn't
happen if I were never in the office.

------
alan_cx
We make machines to replace workers, for lots of really great reasons. But,
where does that end?

I'm struggling to think of a task that a machine cant or wont be able to do. I
cant get further than art and thinking up things for machines to do, but even
then I'm not so sure. I'm sure even philosophical issues could eventually be
determined by a computer program. Robots can perform most mundane tasks, and
equally highly complex tasks we cant even do. We even have machines that
design and build machines.

So yeah, offices will be a thing of the past, because workers will be a thing
of the past. Well, just a few workers who watch over the machines. But, wont
they be deemed inefficient?

~~~
j_baker
When they invent a computer that can write poetry or paint a painting or start
a startup, I think your vision will have come true. Fortunately, I think we're
still a long way away from computers that can do these things with the
creativity a human can.

------
lazyjones
I've read a lot about telecommuting here on HN lately. While I do this myself,
I'm hoping that one day infrastucture and cost of living near the workplace
will be at a point where everyone can just walk to the office (in 5-10
minutes). This is the best of all possible worlds for me: healthier, allows
working from home and still dropping in at work for meetings or lunch or
whatever comes up and no getting stuck in rush hour traffic (not in the car
and neither in the subway/tram), no dangerous biking (in the city).

Also, Mr. Branson does not look too comfortable in his outdoor chair next to
the street. ;-)

~~~
dasmoth
Doesn't that imply living in cities? Not to everyone's taste, by any means.

Also, how is this going to work out for couples/families?

~~~
corin_
And suddenly changing jobs means either moving home, or limiting your search
to within a very, very small radius.

~~~
lazyjones
It could mean unhooking your housing module (something like this:
[http://www.arcspace.com/features/kisho-kurokawa/nakagin-
caps...](http://www.arcspace.com/features/kisho-kurokawa/nakagin-capsule-
tower/) but bigger) from the provided base near your workplace and
transporting it to one near your new job.

OTOH, in large cities, there's plenty of possible work places within e.g. 1
square Km or mile. Perhaps they should be clustered so that similar companies
are close together? Plenty of room for optimization (from an utopostic
viewpoint).

------
crazygringo
These kinds of black-and-white views need to stop.

Some jobs (highly self-directed, autonomous, don't need teamwork) can be done
just fine from home.

Other jobs (collaborative, creative, culture-building) just can't, or it's
very difficult.

And then there are obviously a lot of gray areas in the middle, since a lot of
jobs are a mix of things, as well as accountability and productivity-
measurement being a big factor too (some people will get away with slacking
off if they can).

Every kind of job and company is different, and needs to figure it out for
themselves. And when you don't work at a specific organization, it's hard to
know what they really need.

~~~
j_baker
I think you're strawmanning Branson into saying something he isn't.

Let me ask you this: why do you automatically assume that this decision rests
with the organization to fit its needs? Don't a firm's workers also have a lot
of different situations that may require different solutions? Some workers
love working at the office. Others love working from home. Others like to have
a mixture. It sounds to me what Branson is saying isn't necessarily
"telecommuting good, office bad" as much as "It's a bad idea to rigidly force
choices on your employees", and I think there's some truth to that view. After
all, I don't buy that employment at Yahoo necessarily means that a person
won't be successful working from home.

Regardless of my views, I don't think it's accurate to say that this is black-
and-white thinking.

------
anonhacker
People seem to think there is only one answer to this question but companies
need to figure out what is best for them depending on their employees, culture
etc. Right now I think the core problem of remote work is verifying that
people are in fact working efficiently. Also people really need to use better
metrics to make judgments; parking lot 'emptiness' or even VPN access logs do
not hold meaning if projects are on time, and the deadlines are not lax.

------
jmaskell
A lot of proponents of home working seem to ignore one of the big reasons
people may want to work in a centralised space (be it an office, co-working
space, somewhere else..) - the interaction with other people.

I hate working at home - I get cabin fever, bored and lonely. I prefer being
around other people and having that interaction (IM, video calls just aren't
the same). I like a change of scenery during the day.

It's nice to have the option to work from home when necessary (e.g. to avoid
having to take a sick day, wait in for a delivery etc) - but I'd hate to do it
every day.

I don't doubt that the nature of offices will change (e.g. I find it hard to
imagine that cubicle farms have much future), and that the number of people
working remotely _will_ increase, but I'd be very surprised if offices
disappear completely.

~~~
ollysb
I work remotely but I have space in a shared office about 10 minutes walk from
my house. This means I never have to a long commute, can work from home or
work around others when I want a bit of company. In terms of working
conditions this seems to be the best of both worlds.

~~~
silasb
This does sound like a good balance. Do you have a dedicated desk or is it
just general tables where you setup at?

Also how much does it cost per month?

~~~
ollysb
I have a dedicated desk. I'm based in Spain(work is in London) so it's pretty
damn cheap! I pay 200 euros a month for a bright, modern office on top of a
block in the center of town(Granada). We have a terrace that surrounds the
office and the views of the mountains are spectacular!

------
johnrob
I hope companies of the future will at least offer working space as a perk. I
am much less productive at home with my pets around, and I can't imagine what
it will be like once I have children.

In my experience, offices are a painful place to watch the clock but a great
place to actually get stuff done.

------
agentultra
I've worked remotely more often than not over the last 3 years. It's becoming
a more common trend. I am glad for it.

I was skeptical at first as I was prone to the common, ephemeral ailment of
loneliness. However advances in group video chat, online whiteboards, cafes
with high-speed wireless and power bars, shared working spaces... I prefer it
to working in an office. I can choose when I am distracted, I can change my
environment to suit my mood, and I get more work done over all.

I also get to spend more time with my family and less time commuting (which is
a complete waste of your life).

I look forward to offices being "optional," but I doubt they will disappear
completely. We are, by nature, social creatures. I predict that we will
instead employ communal spaces instead of the traditional, "company office."

~~~
ap22213
Agree. I worked in-the-office for 12 years. Then, the past 2, I've worked
almost exclusively remotely. It's been really good.

Just as when I started my first job, I had to learn new skills. As a diligent,
good employee, I tried to learn quickly. And, now, I'm probably more
productive than I ever have been.

But, then again, I don't sit on FB or Twitter all day. Each morning, I set out
with a focused list of goals, and I try to get them done. And, I need a quiet
space.

The hardest part, for me, was learning when to shut off. As an office worker,
there was a natural dynamic and rhythm of the team. When the lights started
going off, or when the cleaning staff showed up, you knew that it was time to
go. But, sometimes, at home, I forget to turn off. I think I have gotten
closer to burnout, working from home.

Collaboration is an issue, but we work in such small teams nowadays, that
there aren't as many communication channels. Long gone are the 15-20 person
teams. Now, I work with targeted groups of 4-5. We communicate regularly. For
more high-fidelity communication, I have face-to-face meetings with subject
matter experts and stakeholders and designers maybe once a month.

As a software developer, I can't see how this trend can stop. With the state
of things, I will never again have all the people that I need in the same
office every day. Skills are just too specialized now. And, services are
specialized. To get everyone (and all their dependencies) in the same office
would mean sacrificing a lot of quality and agility.

------
xrd
Offices are a cost center and have their own set of inefficiencies. I think
Mayer was correct in "correcting" an issue at Yahoo! which is that many
employees were gaming it. There is a value in face-to-face connection. We can
do away with offices as long as there are community spaces (public or private)
where people can connect. There is good value in finding a balance between
isolation time and collaboration time. Offices might tend towards
collaboration time and lose out on isolation time, while the opposite is often
true with strictly home offices.

------
koyaanisqatsi
I worked from home as a freelancer for several years until one of my clients
insisted that I spend a full, regular work-day at their office at least once a
week. When I did that I discovered that I was far more productive, even if the
space they gave me was noisier.

I'm a lot different from others, though, in that I'm not only easily
distracted, I also have chronic problems with motivation. I.e.: when I'm at
home I'm a slacker, and when I'm at an office I'm not (or not _as much_).

After a few weeks of this I began offering to spend full days, once a week, at
some of my other clients, and observed a boost in productivity there, too.

I know of some work-at-home freelancers who have set aside a room in their
home that they treat quite strictly as their office, even dressing in a suit
and tie every morning and "commuting" from their bedroom down the stairs or
across the hall. They find that it helps them get into the right mindset so
they can more easily suppress the temptation to knock-off for a few minutes
and watch TV, or play with the cat, or whatever.

Meyer might be doing something slightly different, though, which is that she
needs to get Yahoo! onto a new track. This must be accomplished
psychologically as well as technically and logistically, and I know many
companies have tried a variety of tricks to get their employees to think
differently, shift into a different mindset. Changing decor, company colors,
cubicles-to-open-space or vice-versa, different dress codes, and so-on.

This might be a permanent thing at Yahoo!, or maybe they will begin slowly re-
introducing work-at-home. A kind of reverse if what I did, perhaps: one day a
week, or month, while keeping tabs on how the employee's performance differs.
Some may perform better, some (like me) might not have the discipline.

------
jwwest
Working Remotely != Working from home. Often when I'm working remotely, I'm
either in a coffee shop or a co-working location, vary rarely at home. I don't
like driving, so being able to control when and where I drive is huge.

The big issue is that of being able to control my own environment. If it's too
hot, I can work someplace where it's not, same if it's too loud. When you
require everyone to work in one shared area, this control disappears and
you're often left to the whims of either the weak common denominator, the
highest paid person, or the loudest (ie the small thin woman that keeps the
office incredibly hot)

If you want dedicated employees, don't run a shitty company.

------
binxbolling
Apparently I'm an anomaly, but I like going to the office. Currently my
company's offices are utter shit, but I'm still not opposed to the concept in
general... and I still come in despite the less-than-inspiring setup we have
at the moment.

I think what's crucial here, however, is that I don't extrapolate my "I prefer
to work in an office" sentiment to everyone, like Bloomberg does. Furthermore,
I'm lucky in that I have a choice in this and my bosses are constantly
encouraging me to work from home more.

So I think if there's one thing it's better to predict, it's that employee
choice will be much more of the norm, not that offices themselves will be
history.

~~~
msrpotus
I agree. Having worked in great offices, not-so-great offices, and currently
working on my own (i.e. from coffee shops, coworking spaces, and at home),
working with other people at an office isn't horrible. Not something I always
want to do, but also not something that I would want to rule out.

------
IdealEthos
Empowering employees with choice is always a good thing as long as results are
prioritized above their choices. My policy has always been to present company
goals to our staff like so: Get X done, by Y, and be sure it meets our
standard of quality. I don't care if you work in your childhood tree house up
until Y as long as I am able to contact you if needed & you produce the
desired results.

Marissa Meyer likely saw that the freedom wasn't producing the results she
would like & decided to reel it in. I'm sure it will return when appropriate.

The wave of the future will be MORE offices that make people not want to
leave.

------
casca
Choice is a great thing and for some jobs it's reasonable to allow people some
flexibility in where and when they work.

But I would be less happy flying on Mr Branson's airline if the pilots were
allowed to telecommute.

------
vellum
Employers like the current setup because they can make sure people aren’t
playing Minesweeper all day. And people still feel that face-to-face
conversations have higher information density.

But if holographic teleconferencing becomes mainstream, then I could see a lot
more knowledge based work being done remotely. That has downsides as well. Why
employ an American, if you can get a qualified person in say, Poland, who
speaks fluent English, is willing to work in your timezone, and has the
equipment to virtually be around in 3D?

~~~
Frozenlock
What's the downside? You say that as if it was bad to hire someone from
Poland...

~~~
vellum
I meant that it's bad if you're an American knowledge worker, and you have to
compete with cheap foreign labor, thanks to holographic technology.

------
StacyC
I love working from home and also enjoy the occasional day in the office with
my peers. But I prefer to work at home most of the time. Avoiding the daily
commute is a _wonderful_ thing.

~~~
jbattle
I actually like my commute most days - I spend half an hour walking outside,
and half an hour reading (each way). Those are good things I might not
otherwise make time for. But if I had to drive, that same hour would be
intolerable.

------
rdl
I'd far prefer to work in a well configured space, vs. itinerant coffeeshops.
But that might be personal space vs. a business, and wouldn't have much in
common with most offices I've ever seen. (I'd like a big hw lab space,
smallish but comfortable private office, and various areas on a campus or
large building which are either dedicated to a specific task or just
interesting.)

Maybe closer to a university's layout for a professor or postdoc than most
commercial offices.

------
kyllo
This has to happen sooner or later, if for no other reason than the tremendous
amount of damage that commuting by automobile is doing to the environment.
Commuting is also a huge, inefficient waste of time and a major source of
unhappiness and poor health.

Self-driving electric cars and buses will help alleviate this pain point, but
electric cars still cause pollution--just at a (often coal-burning) central
power plant instead of an internal combustion engine.

------
johnward
One day jobs will be a thing of the past. How will our current society adapt
when we reach a point that we are so productive that we don't need everyone to
work?

~~~
purephase
As idyllic as that sounds, they've been predicting that since the start of the
industrial revolution and the trend has continued in the opposite direction.

Manufacturing desires and trumping economic needs over social goods is so
entrenched now that I doubt most people would choose a more relaxed lifestyle
over the next shiny bauble dangled in front of them.

I wish it were not so, but I see little to no evidence to the contrary.

------
eli_gottlieb
Offices? Probably not. Entire floors and buildings without any purpose other
than holding offices and cubicles? Yes, they were a fairly recent invention
and will probably be gone soon.

Remote work may be somewhat inefficient now, but when our technologies get
good enough to build a room for consistent telepresence, there will be little
point in having a cubicle across town when you can own a customized office and
virtually project it anywhere.

~~~
larrys
"Yes, they were a fairly recent invention and will probably be gone soon."

What do you mean by "recent"? They have existed for perhaps more than 100
years and before that there wasn't the type of work where they were needed and
so they didn't exist. (There was no paper to be pushed? Or phones to be
answered?).

"build a room for consistent telepresence"

There is much nuance you can pick up when someone is right in front of you vs.
by telepresence. I'm not saying you aren't right or that what you say won't
happen but don't discount the value of face to face at least in business,
negotiation and management.

It takes much more work from me to buy something face to face (because I have
to act and hide visual cues) then it does by email. But on the same hand I can
pick up visual cues in the seller and make split second decisions based on
them. It all depends on the situation of course.

------
highrisein
If the work gets done and deadlines are met working from home should not cause
any problems.We have technology to support working remotely but the real issue
is that human interaction gets lost if we move towards this trend. This debate
depends on the industry you work for its not a black or white issue.

------
zoeymckenzie
I think that offices will always be around. Yes, being able to work from
wherever and connect with people through tech is amazing but there is NOTHING
like a face to face discussion. Human contact is essential; especially where
company culture is concerned.

------
snogglethorpe
"One day people will just swallow a handy pill instead of eating food!"

The future will be completely weird and amazing, but it won't be the weird and
amazing you thought of...

------
pbreit
Whether or not Branson is right (I don't think he is), it's completely
irrelevant to the yahoo situation which is just one company at one point in
time.

------
sigzero
That's a sad prediction. I like going into the office.

------
bhauer
"I have enormous respect for Michael Bloomberg and have rarely disagreed with
anything he has done or said..."

I really could not get past this introductory bit. It tainted my opinion of
everything Branson said. If Branson has enormous respect for Michael
Bloomberg, I can't really muster much respect for him in turn. Which is a
shame, because I essentially agree with him on this point--working from home--
in particular.

Though I also feel it's any company's prerogative to allow or disallow working
from home.

------
markahern
Was anyone else like "wtf is a one day office?"

~~~
Macsenour
At first read yes. I thought it meant that there is an office shared by 5
people and they each go "to the office" 1 day a week and the other 4 they work
at home.

<epic fail>

------
teeja
On the same day, jetpacks and flying cars will be released. With a half-price
introductory offer.

------
doktrin
Tangential : every time I read this title, I ask myself what a "one day
office" is.

------
jjtheblunt
This seemed to completely ignore expensive shared capital, like the tens of
millions of dollars of digital test equipment engineers use to design iOS
devices, Android devices, perform diagnostics in medicine, fly that capital as
Virgin airlines, for examples. Nice buzz-generating headline, though.

~~~
j_baker
I don't think anyone would claim that there's no job that can't be done from
home. However, are these things always necessarily blockers if someone
_really_ wants to work from home? I mean, I can access an iOS or android
device from anywhere in the world. Or my company can buy me one of each for
probably less than one or two thousand dollars. I can pay a lab to do that
expensive diagnostic. About the only one I see as problematic is flying for
Virgin, and I think that's more a technology limitation than anything to do
with the job itself.

------
Nux
One day we will have teleportation and this discussion will be pointless. :)

------
bicknergseng
I love how he ends it with a question. Most blogs are so dictatorial.

------
snambi
How about non-performing workers?

~~~
gte910h
Do the same thing to them as you do when they're in the office.

~~~
officemonkey
Performance management for mobile workers is harder for the manager. There's a
lot more metrics and measuring than most "soft skill" managers are comfortable
with. And until recently, many managers are selected because of their "face
skills" and not their project management chops.

There will always be jobs were people will go to a place and work with other
people (McDonald's, Prisons, Hospitals.) But there will be a increasingly
large sector of the economy where it will be economically beneficial to "do
away" with the office. Those who have those skills are destined to benefit.

------
c1u
Yep, partially due to technology but I also think in 30 years almost everyone
will be a freelancer and "jobs" as we know them today will be very very rare.

~~~
jbattle
I can't imagine the pain of having to assemble a team of freelancers every
three-nine months for the next iteration on some product/project. Unless the
freelancers are utterly interchangeable, which is a pretty awful vision
(people think they are cogs now?). When you want to organize a team you'd
spend 25% of your time just assembling a team. The freelancers themselves
would also spend tons of time waiting for a team to be ready to go. Probably
the norm would be for freelancers to have multiple projects going at a time,
so any project would only get some percentage of each individual's time &
attention, requiring larger teams or slower cycles, each of which requiring
more overhead on communications and coordination.

The obvious alternative is to maintain a group of people that have developed a
good working relationship together for a longer period of time. Of course
people would come and go occasionally due to other opportunities & changing
needs for skills. But wait - that sounds an awful lot like what we already
have.

~~~
dugmartin
That sounds exactly like a movie production. I'm sure they have figured out
how to bring teams back together for sequels.

~~~
jbattle
Movies take years to produce. At least from what I've seen, people switch jobs
every 3-6 years. So not much different really. I agree that the 25+ year
tenure at a company is by and large gone for good.

