
Facebook stock pops as ad sales surge - sbashyal
http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/23/technology/social/facebook-earnings/index.html
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sbashyal
This surge may not last long as some 250M employee owned shares will flood the
market next week.

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akavi
Presumably (at least if you accept the Efficient Market Hypothesis),
predictable information like that is already priced in to the stock.

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kitcar
The issue is its not a piece of predictable information - we don't know how
many of those 250M shares will actually hit the market, as it is unknown what
% of employees will sell versus hold. The market knows the event will occur,
but does not know the size, and therefore significance, of the event as a
result.

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emmett
But the market is pricing in "some number of those shares will hit the market"
already. Since it's equally likely that the market has anticipated too-high as
too-low, there's no reason to believe it will cause the stock to sink. It's
equally likely it will rise.

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aston
I'd be very willing to bet against it rising. That would be nearly
unprecedented.

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emmett
At what odds? This is an easy bet to make: just short-sell the stock or buy a
put against it.

Markets are anti-inductive.
<http://lesswrong.com/lw/yv/markets_are_antiinductive/>

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thechut
It sounds like they announced a loss of $59m but this was adjusted for tax
payments they made pushing them to $311m gain. FB still seems toxic to me - I
wouldn't invest a cent of my own money.

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mtrimpe
It's good to see the Facebook stock finally hit bottom (for now at least.)

There's still so much revenue potential locked up in Facebook and if Mark can
find a way to unlock that tastefully without alienating his user base they
might have a bright future ahead of them.

