
New York Under Water - sergeant3
http://nautil.us/issue/49/the-absurd/new-york-under-water
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jimrandomh
This is a science fiction story about a world in which the sea level has risen
"more than 50 feet" (15m) in 2140. This is a reasonable conceit for a story,
but, it's important to not update our beliefs about the real world based on
fictional evidence.

Eyeballing a graph in the IPCC climate change report, the worst-case scenario
for sea level rise by 2200 has a wide error bar, but it's from .6m-2m; the
average-case scenario is from .3m-1.1m. Reduce those numbers further for a
setting in 2140, and this is not enough to flood New York as described.
[https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-
report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Cha...](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-
report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf) pg 1188.

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chrisseaton
I heard a radio programme once about nature-vs-nuture and they were using the
fictional novel, We Need To Talk About Kevin, to sort of present evidence and
discuss the subject, and all the way through I was thinking 'but this novel is
just what someone sat and made up based on imagination...'

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awjr
I have a suspicion that the approach that will be used is the Dutch approach
and a Dam will be built across the Block Island Sound enabling reclamation of
significant amounts of land. The value of NYC and the ability to expand the
city should make it worth while.

I suspect dams will be used to protect Miami which already suffers from sea
flooding.

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adanto6840
I'm actually really intrigued, somewhat enamored even, by this idea. The
newly-created land seems like it would be astronomically valuable, and so the
value proposition is surprisingly interesting to me. Brings a lot of questions
to mind --

Are there any comparable projects, of such massive scale (or even somewhat
close), to compare to? Especially on cost?

Does the sudden influx of that much land not cause existing land value to
plummet, or is there an established way to ration it into the market to help
mitigate that? Is this something that could even happen politically, or would
entrenched interests / existing land owners prefer to create canals (not sure
if realistic, but curious) which would probably reduce the property inventory
& in theory increase value?

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collinmanderson
Chicago expanded their shoreline via landfill from 1870-1940. Not sure about
cost / land value.

[http://www.encyclopedia.chicagohistory.org/pages/3713.html](http://www.encyclopedia.chicagohistory.org/pages/3713.html)

[https://www.cityofchicago.org/content/dam/city/depts/cdot/Sh...](https://www.cityofchicago.org/content/dam/city/depts/cdot/ShorelineHistory.pdf)

A modern article says an additional 225 acres could add $62.5B.

[https://chicago.curbed.com/2015/1/21/10001048/we-could-
keep-...](https://chicago.curbed.com/2015/1/21/10001048/we-could-keep-the-
lakefront-sacred-by-adding-more-of-it)

Also, somewhat related, Chicago raised their city 6 ft in the 1850-1860's.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raising_of_Chicago](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raising_of_Chicago)

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ericedge
The hardest thing to believe in NEW YORK 2140 is that the stats language R is
still in active use 120 years in the future.

~~~
jfoutz
Right? All the core models are going to be FORTRAN2110 because later editions
weren't widely adopted.

~~~
WorldMaker
All the core models? Are you forgetting the critical ones baked in PyCOBOL 3.8
(circa 2084)?

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pavement
There's always the possibility that an array of dams and locks could be
established, to preserve New York harbor, as it exists.

It'd be expensive, but New York is already expensive. Would such a project
consume more concrete than other dams?

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pcunite
When I was about 12, I was in a academic play in which I had to recite a
portion of the quote on the statue of liberty by Emma Lazarus:

"Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-
tost to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

I was very impressed by this thought.

