
Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period - shadre
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793.full
======
JetSetWilly
This paper seems to have every imaginable scenario of which 2022 is a worst
case.

But, now actual data is starting to come in - such as the extremely
interesting serum testing in Scotland (1) - which suggests that the infection
rate is much much higher than previously supposed. The Scotland serum testing
shows that around 35000 people were infected at a time when only 110 cases
were known officially, and strongly suggests that at least 10%-20% of the
country have been infected by now.

Similar data has been suggested by the Danish serum testing.

So I'd be interested to see what comes out of this Harvard model if they put
in the numbers suggested from serum testing.

1\.
[https://figshare.com/articles/Serological_analysis_of_1000_S...](https://figshare.com/articles/Serological_analysis_of_1000_Scottish_blood_donor_samples_for_anti-
SARSCoV2_antibodies_collected_in_March_2020/12116778/2) )

~~~
cm2187
And also a similar study in Germany with similar results [1]. The result is of
course to mechanically reduce the fatality rate to a number close to that of
the flu (the problem for hospitals being not so much the fatality rate than
the high number of infections), and well within the 0.1-1% range that US
health authorities have been advertising for a while.

Regarding models, it seems 0.15% is the new basis [2].

Even on the optimistic end of the range (0.1% fatality), with 13k deaths,
that's 20% of the UK population infected, a long way from achieving herd
immunity.

The other thing is that I invite people on hackernews to better control their
anxiety. It is not so long ago that pointing that case fatality ratios in
jurisdictions that didn't do mass testing and where there seemed to be many
unreported cases with mild symptom was overestimating the fatality rate would
get you treated of conspirary theorist. South Korea had been measuring a
fatality ratio in that range (~0.6%) over a month ago and that was probably
already an upper bound (due to not testing 100% of the population).

[1]
[https://mobile.twitter.com/AmeshAA/status/124944656101010637...](https://mobile.twitter.com/AmeshAA/status/1249446561010106370)

[2]
[https://mobile.twitter.com/AmeshAA/status/124902067755179622...](https://mobile.twitter.com/AmeshAA/status/1249020677551796224)

~~~
loftyal
NYC population is 8.4 million. Their death rate is 6,589 (Apr 13). 0.1% of 8.4
million is 8400, that would mean almost everyone in NYC has been infected, I'm
not sure that is feasible at the moment.

[https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-d...](https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-
data-summary-04142020-1.pdf)

~~~
cm2187
It would only take a 0.25% fatality rate to imply 30% of the NY population to
have been infected, which is plausible.

------
turdnagel
"To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary
into 2022."

Wow -- seems very unlikely to happen though.

~~~
DennisP
Intermittent seems quite possible. Every time the death rate spikes, we'll
have to lock down again.

Chances are, some region will decide against doing that, and their outcome
will provide a clear incentive for everyone else to be more rigorous about it.

~~~
orbifold
Yeah no this is not happening, the young people will revolt before that. You
can suspend civil liberties for a few months, that's fine, but not
intermittently over several years. No way that governments in western
countries will get away with that. I expect this to be an event that will
remove most baby-boomers from power and bring in the millennial generation,
they expect us to support ~5 old people through most of our productive life
and now they created or are about to create debt that we will have to pay off
for the rest of our lives. A lot of it is to prop up pension schemes and
assets which are primarily owned by old people and projected to have collapsed
by the time a 30 year old will retire.

~~~
Der_Einzige
Lmfao you are far too optimistic about the revolutionary potential of
westernized young people.

They will not revolt. They won't take power. They don't even vote today.

~~~
raducu
I take the "Ok boomer" to be the canary in the coal mine, or atleast I hope
so, because without the young people revolting this planet is royaly screwed.

------
Jeema101
This article brings up something I was thinking about when this all first
started: cross-immunity with other coronaviruses and whether or not infection
with one of them could at least give partial immunity to SARS-CoV-2. As the
study points out, there are less harmful human coronaviruses which are thought
to cause around 15% of common colds worldwide.

I wonder if anybody has thought to research using these viruses as part of an
innoculation strategy at least for high-risk groups. After all the first
'vaccine' ever developed in the 18th century (really an innoculation) was to
intentionally give people cowpox in order to give them immunity to smallpox.

Maybe it's too risky though for some reason? I dunno.

~~~
makomk
The existing human coronaviruses aren't the most well-researched things
around, but as I understand it there's evidence infection with them might
actually be pretty dangerous to at-risk people. They just can't cause a
pandemic because too many people are immune.

~~~
eloff
The common cold is dangerous to people? The flu, sure, but I never heard of
people dying from a cold. I'm sure it happens, but in comparable numbers
though? I don't think so.

~~~
ejstronge
You may already know this, but for the sake of others, it’s important to
realize that many viruses cause what we refer to as ‘common cold’.
Coronaviruses are only a minor component of this set of viruses, as low as
1-2% in a study I read (can’t find it now; this value also depends on lots of
factors).

~~~
pbhjpbhj
FWIW this WebMD article I read a while back puts "colds" as being caused by
Coronavirus 20% of the time, [https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/cold-
guide/common_cold_ca...](https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/cold-
guide/common_cold_causes).

~~~
watwut
This migth depend on location and local climate. The typical cold in my
country has different symptoms and length then typical cold 8 hours of drive
away south.

------
aaron695
It's mind blowing we are not putting more money, Billions of dollars, into why
people are getting reinfected and around antibodies.

It is fully expected people will be able to get the disease again in years.

But it might be much sooner. And when you get it a second time it might not be
as easy as the first. Your third winter and third time getting it might be
death.

This variable turns SARS-CoV-2 from it's current media accepted 'mild' to very
serious, and we don't know what it is, these 3 months into the disease.

Ok link talking about some of the issues -

[https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/opinion/coronavirus-
immun...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/opinion/coronavirus-
immunity.html)

~~~
redis_mlc
Actually we don't have to do anything except let corona virus run its course.
Just saved you billions in research.

~~~
javagram
“Run its course” = 2-3% of the population die due to the virus.

I think the billions in research might be a more humane alternative.

