
The Electric Car may be entering its “cell phone” period - mblakele
http://ideas.4brad.com/electric-car-may-be-entering-its-cell-phone-period
======
vlehto
Good electric car battery standard would solve almost all of the problems of
electric cars.

1\. The battery is where most development happens and where it's most needed.
So you don't have to worry about your car getting too old too fast. Just get
fresh battery.

2\. Range: just swap the battery if you run out of juice. They could be rented
like gas bottles are at service station.

3\. Battery charge lifespan.

4\. Potentially emerging fuel cells. They are just a way to burn something
into electricity. Why do you care what kind of black box feeds you car some
current?

How could this be done? Build robots at service stations that lift a battery
pack into the bottom of the car. Good place could be where the spare wheel
currently goes. Bottom of the trunk. You could steal mechanical locking from
intermodal containers, just scale it down. And electric connectors could be
upscale speakon connectors stolen from pro audio.

~~~
m-i-l
Tesla did have battery swap stations where the battery would be swapped in
around 90 seconds (less time than it takes to fill up a tank)[0]. However,
uptake was apparently very small so focus was shifted to building the network
of supercharger stations[1].

[0] [https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/battery-swap-pilot-
program](https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/battery-swap-pilot-program)

[1] [http://www.engadget.com/2015/06/10/tesla-battery-
swap/](http://www.engadget.com/2015/06/10/tesla-battery-swap/)

~~~
andygates
The more interesting question, then, becomes "why didn't you swap your
battery?" to drivers who charged instead.

~~~
greglindahl
You had to swap back to your own battery on the way home. When I drive SF/LA,
I go down on I5 (passing the swap station) and come back up the coast.

If Teslas had leased batteries it would be easier, but they do not.

------
lectrick
1) The Tesla just surpassed the Leaf as the most popular electric car (yes,
even with the price difference).

2) Electric car perks are everywhere and rarely mentioned. Free charging, way
better parking, fielding questions from curious onlookers, more cargo space,
no noise, no warmup, no oil changes, etc.)

3) In the winter months in areas of the world with real seasons (read: not San
Francisco area), cabin heating will detract significantly from your range on a
long 20 degree F drive. Talking 25% less maximum range or so. You can mitigate
it somewhat by using seat heat instead but I've found that passengers REALLY
do not want to go that route (or worse, they want BOTH lol).

~~~
mhandley
Why don't electric cars come with a tiny kerosene cabin heater as standard? A
small heater would take up little space or weight, could be easily refueled at
home so not need a detour to a petrol station, and be much more cost effective
than adding extra batteries just to provide cabin heat. Sure, it's not zero-
emission, but the efficiency of a kerosene heater can be pretty good (much
better than an internal combustion engine) and it might go a long way to
increase the usefulness on cold days.

~~~
coldpie
No one would be silly enough to cart around a tank of highly explosive liquid
in their vehicle.

~~~
pljns
I look forward to hearing my grandkids saying this in disbelief, to which I
respond, "No, really, we carted around a massive tank of highly flammable
liquid. To make matters worse, we actually steered vehicles ourselves."

------
m-i-l
The potential for depreciation was a powerful deterrent for me. Assuming 20%
depreciation a year, then a £65K Tesla would be "costing" over £1000 a month
just in depreciation alone.

However, the Tesla Model S has apparently so far had lower depreciation than
any other car in the UK[0], according to CAP Black Book ("the industry
benchmark for used car values"[1]). Presumably this is in large part due to
its relative scarcity (still a 2 month lead time for a new one, so an
instantly-available second hand one becomes more attractive). Quite how long
that situation holds remains to be seen.

[0] [http://evobsession.com/cap-black-book-teslas-retain-value-
be...](http://evobsession.com/cap-black-book-teslas-retain-value-better-car-
market/)

[1] [http://www.cap.co.uk/en/products-and-services/black-
book/](http://www.cap.co.uk/en/products-and-services/black-book/)

EDIT: The 20% depreciation was a rough estimate based on the Resale Value
Guarantee if you buy on finance. Using figures of £64,600 cash price, £72,477
if bought on finance, and £37,584 Guaranteed Minimum Future Value after 3
years, then the actual "worst case" depreciation would be around 18% per year
over 3 years.

~~~
hcho
I don't think lead time is relevant here. Built to spec lead times are
generally much longer for upmarket ICE cars.

------
vessenes
I have exactly these dynamics with my 2013 Nissan Leaf. I leased it, assuming
depreciation would be brutal on it. And it was, in fact, Nissan just offered
me $5,000 credit to buy it off them, meaning I got to finance far less of the
depreciation than I should have, and some corporate arm is going to take the
writeoff for me.

I was going to buy it, but the technology is changing so quickly, it seems
almost pointless. On the other hand, what is the minimum a low mileage four
year old electric car would be worth, even if its range is not up to industry
standards? It's hard to imagine it would be worth less than $6k. If it is, the
electric car depreciation will drive other used car values down.

Nissan is offering lease extensions, typically the stupidest possible way to
pay for driving a car, but in this case, I think it's probably a good idea.
The internal pressure to innovate against GM and Tesla means they are going to
be aggressively obsoleting these older cars.

------
jstanley
> There is a $7500 federal tax rebate on a new electric car, so the moment you
> drive it off the lot, its blue book value drops an additional $7500.

But isn't that fine because you got the $7500 anyway?

~~~
eloisant
Maybe, but when you buy your car it's important to realize that these $7,500
are not just free money, they have a direct impact on your car resell value.

So if you buy a leaf that starts at $30,000, get rebates to $20,000, you must
remember that since anyone can get it new for $20,000 that's the actual "new"
value to take before you apply depreciation.

In other words you're not really buying a $30k car for $20k, you're buying a
$20k car.

~~~
komodo
So it follows that right before the rebate ends is the best time to buy?

~~~
MagnumOpus
Correct.

But only if the reason why the rebate is ending is a breakthrough in
technology that will cut the price of a new one by more than the rebate in 2-3
-- which is in a sense what happened with solar subsidies in a lot of places.

------
eoinmurray92
Since people would start to want to buy cars more frequently because of the
constant increate in performance/features (which the article is saying will be
faster than the current state of motor innovation), would the car
manufacturers be able to offer lower-cost models that would be bought every
3/4 years.

They could recoup the money from cheaper cars from the faster purchase cycle.

Or else move to a leasing model (this is becoming more popular with people I
know in the UK, Ireland).

~~~
forgetsusername
> _would the car manufacturers be able to offer lower-cost models that would
> be bought every 3 /4 years._

I think people buying new cars every 3 or 4 years is already the status quo,
regardless of cost. That's the average lease/finance period (though financing
duration is increasing).

~~~
bsder
> I think people buying new cars every 3 or 4 years is already the status quo,
> regardless of cost. That's the average lease/finance period (though
> financing duration is increasing).

Not where I come from. Most of the folks I know are sitting on 8+ year old
cars.

Leasing is useless in the US at this point because you are on the hook for the
full price of the car if you get in an accident and total it.

------
RegW
Assuming that the article is correct and that adoption is being hampered by
concerns about secondhand values, rebates and diminishing relative
performance, then leasing would seem to offer the best option. You can always
then turn in you existing model for a better one after a couple of years.

However, this doesn't seem that green. You might not be pushing clouds of
particulates into the air around your home, but there is still the power
consumed in manufacturing a new car for you every 2 years.

Perhaps, the Riversimple model would also work for electric cars. They sell
you mobility as a service - and the motivation to keep you moving efficiently
remains with them. In theory this should force them to keep the vehicle
upgradable. [http://riversimple.com/how-the-business-
works/](http://riversimple.com/how-the-business-works/)

The comparison with phones is interesting. We are starting to get phones with
batteries that can't be changed. Do we now just plan to throw them away every
2 years, or are we actually losing interest and need to be forced to upgrade?

~~~
SixSigma
But when you lease, at the end the vehicles are refurbed and sold on. And if
they aren't then they will be almost totally recycled nowadays.

------
JohnDoe365
Current oil prices make electronic cars a total personal economic loss.

~~~
beisner
Perhaps at face value, and only at this exact moment in time. It would be
interesting to see examine both the hidden and extrinsic costs of both sorts
of vehicles. I believe that maintenance/performance of electric cars ends up
being less in lifetime costs than combustion - that's a relatively well-
studied area, and narrows the amortized gap between electric and combustion.
What hasn't been studied much, and may be interesting to examine, are the
extrinsic costs of both types of cars. Take health expenses for instance -
does owning a combustion vehicle have an effect on an owner's health, vs
electric ownership? Would this effect be reflected in higher healthcare costs
later on? At the macro level, if emissions were reduced dramatically by mass
replacement by electric vehicles, would aggregate healthcare costs decrease as
well?

------
mattiemass
I've read fairly similar takes comparing EVs to the digital camera. I'm very
interested to see what ends up happening, but my guess is the car market will
be quite unique.

I do think the author is overestimating the importance of peripheral functions
of cars.

~~~
brbsix
By peripheral do you mean things like entertainment systems and apps? If so I
agree. However the author specifically emphasized the importance of the
computer and it's associated software. I've got to think that entails things
like autonomous (or assisted) driving capability as seen in the recent Tesla
updates as well as things like improved accident avoidance, "hailing"
features, or self-maintenance. I can certainly see how these software
improvements would be compelling.

------
SixSigma
Them child miners had better get digging cobalt faster !

[https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/01/Child-
labour-...](https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/01/Child-labour-
behind-smart-phone-and-electric-car-batteries/)

------
benten10
Here's a question I've always wanted to ask someone about electric cars: Why
don't the companies make cars with detachable batteries, and basically do a
battery 'swap' in the charging stations, so that the charging time becomes
very little, if people want to?

~~~
brbsix
I guess people didn't care.

[http://fortune.com/2015/06/10/teslas-battery-swap-is-
dead/](http://fortune.com/2015/06/10/teslas-battery-swap-is-dead/)

------
glossyscr
As the long as the charging is not way faster I do not see mass adoption.

If you're using cars just in the city then charging is no issue but for long
distance travel it is one. Only way is to own at least two cars but this can't
be the solution.

~~~
forgetsusername
> _If you 're using cars just in the city then charging is no issue but for
> long distance travel it is one._

Yeah, I'm also curious how this pans out. Generally, people traveling long
distances on the Tesla SC network route say, "No big deal, I stop for 20
minutes to stretch, charge, and away I go."

But what does that scenario look like when there are millions of EVs on the
road? Imagine it took 20 minutes to fill up with fuel? The lines would be
horrendous. Travel during prime vacation time and they already are on some
routes.

~~~
rhino369
Presumably the number of quick charge locations will grow if electric cars
become normal. They won't be free (even tesla is walking back that free
forever promise).

States could let companies lease spots at rest stops.

------
spo81rty
Most people buy a car every three years. Sounds similar to how often people
switch cell phones. I don't think electric cars change much in regards to
people always wanting something different or the shiny new model.

The awesome thing about the Tesla is all the over the air updates. Other car
makers want you to buy the new model to get the new features.

I worked in the car biz for a long time.

~~~
JonnieCache
_> Most people buy a car every three years._

This is shocking to me. Are you in the US? I'm pretty sure it's more like 10
years here in the UK.

~~~
ghaff
Pretty much the only people who own cars for just 3 years are those who are
leasing.

The average car on the road is over 11 years old in the US and average length
of ownership for new cars is over 6 years. [1]

[1] [http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/07/29/Here-s-Why-
American...](http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/07/29/Here-s-Why-Americans-
Are-Keeping-Their-Cars-Longer-Ever)

