
Google Trends for Tumblr, Google+, Reddit, Twitter - seeing
https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F05pdgbz%2C%20%2Fm%2F0gh6xtp%2C%20%2Fm%2F0b2334%2C%20%2Fm%2F0289n8t&cmpt=q&tz=Etc%2FGMT%2B4
======
smallegan
I was wondering why you didn't include and so I plunked it in there and then
realized why you didn't include facebook:
[https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F05pdgbz%2C%20...](https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F05pdgbz%2C%20%2Fm%2F0gh6xtp%2C%20%2Fm%2F0b2334%2C%20%2Fm%2F0289n8t%2C%20%2Fm%2F02y1vz&cmpt=q&tz=Etc%2FGMT%2B4)

~~~
grandalf
I did the same thing. It sort of takes one's breath away.

~~~
lacantina
What I find interesting is that Twitter and Facebook have the same graph
shape, both peaking in 2013.

They should allow a log scale, then you could compare with Facebook more
easily.

~~~
JimmyM
My fairly crude theory is that those sites have slightly broader and thus less
tech-savvy userbases, so searches might represent ingrained ways of accessing
the site more than they would for Reddit or Tumblr.

As even the least-tech-savvy becomes more aware of faster ways of accessing
the websites, and browser software starts to pre-empt user intention more and
more, this kind of convoluted search starts to drop off.

Not sure if that theory holds water, or is in any way necessary.

~~~
Nagyman
I agree with your theory to an extent, however:

> As even the least-tech-savvy becomes more aware of faster ways of accessing
> the websites

I'm not sure that happens. From observation, people tend to stick to the first
way they figured out how to do something on their computer. Searching for
"Facebook" from Google is very standard practice. Further, browsers
_encourage_ search over direct address input. I've tried to show people many
times how to visit sites directly... it doesn't help them so they
understandably ignore the advice.

~~~
grandalf
Also, Google stopped indexing Twitter around the time Twitter started to
decline, but Facebook still comes up first for many name searches.

------
Gustomaximus
As a side note, I really enjoy seeing Google Trends information. I really hope
this is one Google dont take from us.

And I'd love Google to build on their Public Data explorer. There is so much
need and value for a business and the wider public for a central data
repository that has good cutting and display options. And a business could
easily pay for a private corner to link to these data sets. If this Public
Data tool had been a bit further ahead I suspect it could have taken a chunk
the massively growing space now being filled by Tableau and other BI
solutions.

[https://www.google.com/publicdata/directory](https://www.google.com/publicdata/directory)

------
minimaxir
A side note on Google Trends: you can't use Google Trends as statistical
evidence that a startup is doing better than another because there are
hundreds of different reasons why people might _Google_ a startup, and some
might be more biased than others. (e.g. Googling "what the heck is Reddit"
which might be less likely to happen for Facebook, yet is not fully indicative
of business success/failure).

It's still fun for making silly correlations, though.

~~~
sjg007
Why not?

------
sachitgupta
Interesting to see Snapchat and Instagram in there:
[https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F05pdgbz%2C%20...](https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F05pdgbz%2C%20%2Fm%2F0b2334%2C%20%2Fm%2F0289n8t%2C%20%2Fm%2F0glpjll%2C%20%2Fm%2F0nbtf_n&cmpt=q&tz=Etc%2FGMT%2B4)

~~~
sachitgupta
\+ Whatsapp:
[https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F05pdgbz%2C%20...](https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F05pdgbz%2C%20%2Fm%2F0289n8t%2C%20%2Fm%2F0glpjll%2C%20%2Fm%2F0nbtf_n%2C%20%2Fm%2F0gwzvs1&cmpt=q&tz=Etc%2FGMT%2B4)

~~~
mattei
swap Twitter for Pinterest:
[https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F05pdgbz%2C%20...](https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F05pdgbz%2C%20%2Fm%2F0glpjll%2C%20%2Fm%2F0nbtf_n%2C%20%2Fm%2F0gwzvs1%2C%20%2Fm%2F0h3tm0f&cmpt=q&tz=Etc%2FGMT%2B4)

------
newjersey
As much as we like to say bad things about Marissa Mayer (I don't know her in
person so she might be truly awful in person I don't know) but she might have
made the right call in buying Tumblr. I think Tumblr still has value. When the
teens who use tumblr today become older, there might even be some
emotional/sentimental value in Tumblr for them.

~~~
alaskamiller
Tumblr got to where Twitter wanted to be before Twitter did. By the Twitter
figured it out they've been on the decline since. But Tumblr is a really bad
buy.

Tumblr has three phases, the gen Y (25-35 yo) has already cycled out and the
gen Z (15-25 yo) are on it because it's not Twitter and not Facebook. It will
decline just like Myspace boomed then declined.

Drop Instagram and WhatsApp in there and they're the best buys.

What's more interesting is how Reddit came to be the new Craigslist for both
gen Y and gen Z.

Oh, try putting in Snapchat. Since Snapchat only has dark content they're not
shown to be any bigger than Reddit although I peg them at maybe half the
growth rate of Instagram.

Wait it out another two product cycles and they'll sharing clear content, then
maybe we can finally see if the Facebook vs Snapchat duel is really real.

~~~
partiallypro
I don't think you're right about Twitter. Twitter is a real time information
company, more or less. No journalists or news savvy people to to Tumblr for
content. There is value in having live content coming from "content creators"
than in cases like Tumblr where most of the content is not original at all.
Twitter doesn't know it's own value because it's poorly run, but I don't think
they ever wanted to be like Tumblr.

~~~
newjersey
I think they want to be more appealing to casuals and are willing to sacrifice
their core users at the altar of a timeline that is not a simple reverse
chronological but tries to guess what you likely like reading.

------
pserwylo
I was curious about the downward trend in Twitter and Facebook at about the
same time. I nknow it doesn't imply causation, but adding "Snowden" shows the
downward trend for Twitter begins about the same time. It is hard to see for
Facebook because it trends so highly, but its downward trend is around the
same time.

[https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F0289n8t%2C%20...](https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F0289n8t%2C%20Snowden&cmpt=q&tz=Etc%2FGMT%2B4)

Perhaps there is indeed hope that a generation of people are becoming more
aware of their options with regards to privacy and anonymity online.

Or perhaps it can more accurately be attributed to a switch to Snapchat or
other social media providers.

~~~
ericflo
I think it has more to do with the switch from the web (where people search
rather than type the address) to apps (where people arrive via notification or
app icon)

------
gbog
Ok, but let's not forget that half of internet is not there. E.g. Chinese
people do not use Google. If we could agregate data qq.com could very well be
above them all.

~~~
Veratyr
I went exploring the Chinese half of the internet for a while. It's amazing
how different things are there, yet how similar they are.

Baidu seems essentially equivalent to Google, AliPay to PayPal and Weibo to
Facebook.

As for differences, I noticed were how heavily integrated AliPay (and all the
payment methods) were with the regular Chinese banking system, needing a local
bank card to verify any account.

Also interesting how they handled file sharing. Baidu Pan seems to be the
Chinese alternative to torrents or P2P.

Really though, the biggest take away I got was the inconceivable amount of
information that isn't displayed to Westerners in search. The Chinese
internet, with over 700m users, must be enormous but your average Western
internet user doesn't see any of it.

~~~
d33
Interesting, I'd love to read more about it! What's this Baidu Pan thing?

~~~
gbog
Baidu Pan is a kind of online MFS, a distributed file system. It is very
convenient inside China for "instant torrenting": if the file you want is
already in the cloud you get it instantly. Also, it's free, you get 500G for
$0 IIRC.

------
md224
I like the growth chart for Reddit alone:

[https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F0b2334](https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F0b2334)

~~~
icanhackit
Me too. Looks like sustainable growth. Reddit is basically a centralized
Usenet, which is a good thing - interaction from people all over the world who
don't know each other for the sake of knowledge sharing and discussion. And
NSFW stuff.

------
TheBiv
Personal anecdote: I will google "<person> Twitter" to get their Twitter feed
so I wonder how many of those searches are not necessarily interest in the
service rather interest in a specific person using the service.

~~~
PKop
For Google's "trend" purposes, I'm fairly certain this counts as interest in
the service, no? Why would it not?

Since they have separate entries for Twitter and the others, listed as "Social
network" vs. just simply "search term" this has to imply some difference in
what they include as searches.

So perhaps all permutations of searching for things on Twitter, and others,
are lumped into the main search term.

~~~
TheBiv
Definitely!! I just used my personal anecdote to say that my "interest" is
rarely with the service it is with the people using the service.

------
taspeotis
It's also fun to do this with:

* Git vs. Mecurial vs. Subversion

* Slashdot vs. Hacker News

* GitHub vs. SourceForce

------
jrockway
Interesting. I feel like you get Google search results for Tumblr, Reddit, and
Twitter when you accidentally type in one of those as a search term instead of
a URL. (Happens to the best of us, pretty sure I've searched for "Google"
before.)

Google+ is different in that the URL is plus.google.com, so I think "plus"
would be the misfire in that case.

------
timrpeterson
Interested to know how Twitter let their momentum tail off starting mid-2013.
Does anyone know the missteps?

~~~
srunni
Facebook executed very well on mobile after their post-IPO slump, while
Twitter failed to create an easy onboarding experience that would enable them
to move beyond their early adopters (the tech industry, the media industry,
and celebrities). The Twitter executives were too busy squabbling to move the
product forward (see the book _Hatching Twitter_ ).

 _How Facebook Squashed Twitter_ : [https://stratechery.com/2016/how-facebook-
squashed-twitter/](https://stratechery.com/2016/how-facebook-squashed-
twitter/)

 _The Reality of Missing Out_ : [https://stratechery.com/2016/the-reality-of-
missing-out/](https://stratechery.com/2016/the-reality-of-missing-out/)

------
oldgun
Poor google plus.

I used to be a really loyal fan.

------
samfisher83
It looks pinterest really stalled. I wonder what their valuation is now.

------
kelukelugames
The reddit spike in 2014 September. Was that that the leaked celebs photos?

~~~
CC-kun
Yup, it inflated the trending stats of a number of sites.

[https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=4chan%2C%20reddit%2C...](https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=4chan%2C%20reddit%2C%208chan%2C%20leak%2C%20celeb&cmpt=q&tz=Etc%2FGMT%2B5)

I never really understood what made these pictures so much more valuable than
another official and unofficial nude images of celebrities. It had a profound
effect on the sites linked above, though, from administration to the mentality
of regulars.

------
musgrove
Put Instagram in that search for some context and a look at serious growth.

------
seeing
It's interesting Dropbox doesn't enter these trend discussions. It flies under
the radar.

