

Every Team’s Chances of Winning in Every Minute, According to Gamblers - lil_tee
http://toddwschneider.com/posts/every-teams-chances-of-winning-in-every-minute-according-to-gamblers/

======
mod
Given that this is only over one season, it's entirely possible that the
gamblers were accurate and luck / coincidence accounted for the difference.

Additionally, there are very, very few gamblers savvy enough to make a living
betting sports--and even they may just be "running good." Mostly that means
it's hard to beat the bookmakers soundly enough to overcome the rake.

~~~
realbarack
But that's the whole point: the book is like a stock price. It reflects all
available information. Across all gamblers, it should be pretty
accurate/efficient.

The reason I like this approach is that it doesn't rely on a model of winning
percentage that some statistician somewhere threw together. Which would you
trust more to reflect the true value of Google: some random Goldman analyst's
model, or the price of GOOG?

