
Tesla’s readying a ‘million mile’ battery that could greatly lower cost of EVs - caution
https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/14/21258650/tesla-million-mile-battery-catl-china-kilowatt-hour-cost-range-improvement
======
pmorici
This article is pretty low quality. The claim that the new million mile
battery technology is coming to the China Model 3 first is not supported by a
source and contrary to what people who follow this stuff closely have been
saying.

The partnership with CATL is rumored to be for providing Lithium Iron
Phosphate (LFP) cells for made in china Model 3 & Y. The million mile battery
technology is rumored to be a combination of technologies that Tesla will use
to manufacture batteries themselves w/o a partner. The million mile battery
will probably be reserved for their higher end models in the near term while
they continue to use Panasonic and CATL for some time while they ramp up
production of their own cells.

The best source for info on all this that I've found is YouTube channels like
Hyperchange

[0] [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KB-yc-
lVExw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KB-yc-lVExw)

~~~
Animats
_This article is pretty low quality._

Yes. First, who's doing this? It sounds like Contemporary Amperex Technology
Ltd in Ningde, Fujian Province, is providing the batteries. But there's no
press release from them.[1] Also, their stock went down a bit today,

CATL is the world's largest lithium battery manufacturer. They produce about
40GWh of battery capacity a year, compared to Tesla's 35GWh or so. CATL has
been roughly doubling production each year for the last few years. Their
output is not exclusive to Tesla. They've mostly targeted China and European
car manufacturers. They're building a huge battery plant, bigger than Tesla's
"gigafactory", in Germany.[2]

If this is real, it's all about CATL.

[1]
[https://www.catlbattery.com/en/web/index.php/news/lists](https://www.catlbattery.com/en/web/index.php/news/lists)

[2] [https://www.electrive.com/2019/02/04/catl-plans-
up-100-gwh-b...](https://www.electrive.com/2019/02/04/catl-plans-up-100-gwh-
battery-factory-in-germany/)

------
jeffrallen
Reuters confirms this: [https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-tesla-
batteries-exc...](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-tesla-batteries-
exclusive/exclusive-teslas-secret-batteries-aim-to-rework-the-math-for-
electric-cars-and-the-grid-idUSKBN22Q1WC)

------
rconti
What kind of lifetime do people assign Tesla's current-day packs?

It certainly seems like, based on the 450k mile "Tesla Taxi"'s experience,
assuming no faults, they're certainly good for ~300k but that's just one data
point (and of course they had a faulty battery, too).

IIRC the warranty on my Model 3 pack is for >70% retention after 8 years/100k
miles, but in real world experiences, they don't seem to degrade much past the
first 10k miles. We're over 30k miles and the life is basically exactly what
it was at 10k.

But I don't know what the commonly-expected "pack lifetime" is. I have seen
the owner surveys out to 100k-150k miles and the lifetime still looks good at
that point. And of course they've been through a lot of revisions over the
years.

~~~
Lendal
I'd like to know the strategy for maximizing lifetime. If typical use is about
30 miles per day that leaves a lot of room for strategizing. Should I charge
it every night, every other night or every third night? Should I keep it
charged to 80% all the time, or should I let it go down to some minimum level
first before plugging in?

~~~
cogman10
Keep it above 40% and below 80% and you should be good. The damage is mostly
done during charging so setting your max level to 80% and leaving it plugged
in is about the best way to go.

The main thing to look at is the floor. Keep the battery from going too far
below 40%. (I believe past 20% is where damage really starts to happen).

Other tips to keep the battery happy are things like driving slower, using
chill mode, etc. Fast discharges damage the battery so eco driving is usually
good for the battery.

AFAIK, LiPoly batteries don't really suffer from any sort of memory effect. So
there is no harm in not fully discharging. The one catch is that your BMS can
get out of whack if it doesn't see 10% and 90% for a while. So occasional
charges up to 90% or 100% are not a bad thing to recalibrate the BMS.

------
greendave
An estimate last year claimed Tesla's costs were ~$160/kWh[1]. This article
suggests by end of next year, <$100/kWh. In percentage terms that's a big
improvement, but even going by last year's estimates, only $8k out of the $40k
price tag of a standard Model 3 is actually accounted for by the battery. So
if that $8k drops to $4k, I can imagine the car price dropping to say $35k.
But not more than that.

[1] [https://insideevs.com/news/400529/tesla-battery-costs-
droppi...](https://insideevs.com/news/400529/tesla-battery-costs-dropping/)

~~~
jmisavage
I know Tesla has the best batteries of an EV in mass production, but that
price seems really high. I found this article last year talking about VW
paying <$100/kWh.

[https://www.electrive.com/2019/09/09/id-3-batteries-cost-
vw-...](https://www.electrive.com/2019/09/09/id-3-batteries-cost-vw-
under-100-per-kilowatt-hour/)

~~~
nimos
Batteries vs Battery Packs. Lots of extra stuff goes into the pack(cooling,
wiring, frame, monitoring/charging electronics ext). Not sure exactly what
Tesla's breakdown is, offhand don't think I've seen them release ever release
the info.

------
thehappypm
This article's shadiness aside..

Battery tech just continues to amaze me. Right now the cheapest EVs are in the
same price ballpark as mid-range gasoline cars, and range anxiety is fading
fast.

I always thought that EVs would get "as good" as gas cars eventually but now
I'm realizing that they may surpass them by a long shot. In the not-too-
distant future an EV may cost way less, require far less maintenance, be
cheaper (and greener!) per mile, be faster and safer, and have a longer usable
lifespan, than a gas car. Amazing stuff.

~~~
pxtail
> In the not-too-distant future an EV may cost way less, require far less
> maintenance, be cheaper (and greener!) per mile, be faster and safer, and
> have a longer usable lifespan, than a gas car.

While this sounds great I seriously doubt that this is going to happen as it
is directly against interests of car manufacturers. As confirmation I like to
bring Nissan Leaf example as it is on the market for a long time and is
suffering from battery degradation - and guess what - despite fact that car is
working fine battery replacement is not easily obtainable and not cheap,
examples:

[https://www.autonews.com/sales/nissan-leaf-buyers-dealers-
wo...](https://www.autonews.com/sales/nissan-leaf-buyers-dealers-worry-about-
replacing-worn-out-cells)

[https://www.reddit.com/r/leaf/comments/9l0pjo/first_gen_leaf...](https://www.reddit.com/r/leaf/comments/9l0pjo/first_gen_leafs_replacement_battery_just_went/e737uoc/)

------
nickik
We don't really know all this stuff yet. Tesla will have a 'battery day' where
we will get actual information. So far this is all speculation. I have heard
so many different potential options and improvements, non of it is that well
founded.

However Tesla does certainty have some strategy vertical integration and they
are doing interesting things. They know that batteries is the competitive
advantage and they are pushing that very hard.

------
BenoitEssiambre
Does that mean a single battery could be reused for a second car when the
first car is worn out?

~~~
dharmab
Same thing happens with ICE vehicles. Engine swaps are common on models where
the engine outlasts the body- e.g. snowy states where cars rust out, and dirt
bikes where the bike is often totaled in a crash long before it wears out and
then parted out as spares for racers who blow engines.

~~~
fred_is_fred
I've seen transmission swaps more than engine swaps - they seem to fail more
frequently in ways that they can be rebuilt. As for the frames themselves, I
think modern car frames last a lot longer than the did in the 70s and 80s,
even in snowy climates.

------
jordache
note - article is from the verge

