
China Rules – The Land That Failed to Fail - pseudolus
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/china-rules.html
======
neya
Well, one thing that is mentioned in the article, but deserves a lot more
attention is IP theft. You should read about the chilling IP theft case of the
bullet train where China pretended to contract Japan for the bullet train, but
used it to steal their IP, patent it all and screw them over.

Here's a really good documentary on how much engineering went into Japan's
bullet trains.

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xA4aaSzqT9s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xA4aaSzqT9s)

To see all this being stolen by someone who just walked in, pretending to make
a deal, is so painful.

~~~
Edmond
IP theft is an important part of the Chinese "Miracle" but it is short-sighted
to focus too much on that...If IP access is all it took, I think we would have
seen the Chinese achievement replicated in many other places.

~~~
scarcely
America owes its very existence to the land it stole from Native Americans. It
owes a huge part of its prosperity to the entire lives it stole from
generations of black people by using them as draft animal (hence freeing the
white man to think about science, mathematics, whatever). The entire material
infrastructure that enabled the production of these fruits of the intellect is
stolen, with direct violent human consequences (by comparison, the consequence
of "IP theft" is that certain already well-to-do entrepreneurs make less money
than they think they are entitled to). It's like if I kicked someone out of
their house, adducted someone else, put them in my basement in chains to work
for me. I then did a bunch of experiments and came up with some nice designs.
But as I was the process of monetizing them I realize someone else stole the
design for me, and now I suddenly feel morally outraged. How can he do that to
me? The injustice!!

(To anyone who's prepared to invoke 'whataboutism' or whatever, note that my
point is that the US's moral outrage is hypocritical, given its extensive
history of (much more violent) theft. It's not about whether "IP theft" is
morally permissible.)

~~~
foobarian
Don't forget how much American intellectual progress actually came from
Europe. Europe did the hard work of educating and raising generations of
scientists and other cream of the crop intellectual elites, who then proceeded
to get chased away by wars and persecution and ended up in America. I heard
some execs in startup land joke about how they managed to "get their Russian
scientists" with relief that their intellectual problems will be solved now.

------
thenanyu
"A little bit of slope makes up for a lot of y-intercept" — China seems to
have taken this to heart.

\- The amount spend by gov and private sector on education is insane; high
literacy rate is an amazing accomplishment.

\- Requiring foreign firms to give up technologies for market access is more
or less the embodiment of this idea.

\- IP theft is similar, you're trading a reputational hit for the means of
growth.

------
40acres
China has mastered the balancing act between authoritarian and free market
policies. In a way, the West's persistence that eventually prosperity would
lead to Democratic policies always seemed a bit condescending and short
sighted to me, democracy is a strong form of government, but why does it have
to be the only one?

The big variable here is growth, the social contract between China and it's
citizens seems to be one of: we'll provide you with massive growth in exchange
for privacy and lack of control. There was plenty of space for growth and
millions of Chinese moved to the middle class, but once growth slows will they
demand more? Has the government clamped down on speech already been too
effective to derail a liberalization movement?

At the end of the day, I think China is just too large to not outpace the
United States as a global leader. China has learned how to grow from all the
Western Powers and has an incredible amount of greenfield to keep going.

~~~
SubiculumCode
Mastered? Far too soon to say that. Within the span of a few decades they
moved from party rule where there seemed to be a meritocracy in place, to
authoritarian rule by their president, which included an "anti-corruption"
campaign that conveniently consolidated power and removed other power blocs.
Doesn't sound like they are maintaining the balance you extol

~~~
40acres
You're correct, it might be too soon to say mastered. But they are striking a
balance that has not been seen in the modern world, the fact that their
economy is so strong and so central to the global economy is a very big
advantage.

It's one thing to try to balance authorities and free market policies in
Venezuela, or even Russia, but China has a massive advantage in population and
strength of the economy. The USSR was no where near where China is even at the
height of its powers. China is moving more into a service based economy and
has plans to become a major importer. Xi honestly IS the biggest threat but
relatively speaking, there have been really successful nation-states that have
similar consolidated power and have been historically successful.

I think we are way to sure of ourselves that China will fail with this model,
but so far they are doing an excellent job all things considered.

------
Invictus0
I think it is still too soon to blow the horn on China's model. Yes, China has
become successful through authoritarianism, but it has only had 2 successful
authoritarian leaders, both of whom were competent and benevolent. History
shows that, on longer time scales, it is difficult to continuously install
competent and benevolent leaders, and when a leader comes along that is not
competent or benevolent, authoritarianism makes it difficult to remove them.
This is why the American system is superior: if you have a bad leader, they
can only do 4 years of damage and can be removed if they are truly awful.
China has no such safety, which makes its system fragile in the long term.

~~~
ardy42
> but it has only had 2 successful authoritarian leaders, both of whom were
> competent and benevolent.

Which ones were benevolent?

~~~
Invictus0
Don't be ridiculous. They have put their country first. You don't have to
conform to the Western ideals of democracy and freedom to be benevolent. And
compared to the historical record of monarchs putting their country first,
China has done very well so far.

~~~
ardy42
>>> but it has only had 2 successful authoritarian leaders, both of whom were
competent and benevolent.

>> Which ones were benevolent?

> Don't be ridiculous.

What's so ridiculous about asking you to name the two Chinese leaders who you
view as benevolent?

~~~
denzil_holles
> What's so ridiculous about asking you to name the two Chinese leaders who
> you view as benevolent?

In terms of benevolent, probably Deng Xiaoping and Xi Jinping [at least, Xi
hasn't made any major mistakes yet].

------
quangio
I think China "scaled" really fast and they're too big to fail. But as an
asian foreigner non-ml tech guy, I don't plan to stay here. Things look good
on paper, but the working condition, environtment is not the best in the world
and i don't think it is ideal place to start everything from scratch as there
are big class gap and the need of guanxi.

~~~
whooshee
Although China is a vibrant place it is still a developing country. not on par
with stable developed countries. Speaking of guanxi, many new rich had gotten
almost none but their tech talent.

------
diminish
"The West was sure the Chinese approach would not work. It just had to wait.
It’s still waiting."

Waiting, crossing fingers, thinking wishfully, hoping, and acting upon it.
China is doing something right..

or maybe West is indeed helping the Chinese success?

~~~
clubm8
Or maybe in the short term China will "win" (America declines, Chine's
influence rises). Only to find that they are unable to develop their own tech,
come up to solutions to keeping said tech running 10-20 years down the line,
etc etc.

I could totally see a future where America gets embroiled in a civil war and
China's experiencing a sort of "island syndrome" ala Japan where all their
tech was advanced at one point and now is stuck in time.

~~~
astronautjones
USA's best and brightest minds are currently being used to figure out how to
sell ads for corrupt social media companies

~~~
clubm8
> USA's best and brightest minds are currently being used to figure out how to
> sell ads for corrupt social media companies

Are they really the brightest if they can't find a way to make a high wage
without working in advertising? :)

Also LOL at calling advertising, a scummy but legal industry "corrupt" in a
conversation about _China_

[https://web.archive.org/web/20081210040251/http://www.csis.o...](https://web.archive.org/web/20081210040251/http://www.csis.org/index.php?option=com_csis_progj&task=view&id=1029)

~~~
astronautjones
i called social media companies corrupt in a week where some of the most
damning reporting about fb ever was published

~~~
clubm8
> i called social media companies corrupt in a week where some of the most
> damning reporting about fb ever was published

Uh, ok? Sorry but your reply is a bit of a non-sequitur, I'm not clear where
you're going with this point.

------
ThomPete
I am currently reading AI Superpowers [https://www.amazon.com/AI-Superpowers-
China-Silicon-Valley/d...](https://www.amazon.com/AI-Superpowers-China-
Silicon-Valley/dp/132854639X)

which I can really recommend it has given me a completely new appreciation for
the term competition.

------
WillPostForFood
_Western economists doubted that innovation could take place under China’s
rigid bureaucracy. They were proved wrong._

Western economists, politicians, and citizens are having a hard time realizing
that the bigger rigid bureaucracy is in the west. Whether you are trying to
develop housing in the bay area, or set up a new factory, or build mass
transit, the bureaucracy tax of time and dollars is our biggest handicap.
Things end up costing too much, taking to long, and being inferior.

California passed the high speed rail proposition ten years ago in 2008, we
have spent billions, and have zero working miles of rail complete. Since 2008,
China has built 15,500 miles of high speed rail.

------
joefranklinsrs
Very optimistic piece about the Chinese economy from a Chinese American who
now resides in China. The author works for Washington Post, which is owned by
Jeff Bezos, whose company Amazon greatly benefits from China.

There is no doubt this is a piece that is trying to rally around a very
unlikely scenario where the US administration will give into Chinese
belligerence and back off on trade tariffs at the end of November when Trump
and Xi meets - despite Trump, Pence, the current Trump administration, and
even prominent Democrats' hardline against China. A trade war which the US is
winning strongly.

A couple of things stands out from the article: reminiscience about the great
Chinese growth in the last 30 years, and "The party appears to enjoy broad
public support, and many around the world are convinced that Mr. Trump’s
America is in retreat while China’s moment is just beginning." That last thing
is the conclusion drawn out of nowhere, and very incorrect. US has been
growing 4% this year, while every other major economies around the world has
suffered. [https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/14/economy/economy-global-
slowdo...](https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/14/economy/economy-global-
slowdown/index.html)

The author cleverly avoids talking about China's now: slumping economy, the
ever increasing local government/corporate/personal debt, export falling 30%
year-over-year in Guangdong, the top exporting province
[https://sinoinsider.com/2018/10/risk-watch-declining-
export-...](https://sinoinsider.com/2018/10/risk-watch-declining-export-
surplus-will-affect-chinas-forex-earnings/), potential tariff on all of
China's import into US, the great military alliance between US, Japan,
Australia, India and several other Southeast Asian countries against China in
South Asia Sea, western ambassadors demanding answers to China's imprisonment
of Muslim minority [https://www.businessinsider.com/china-slams-western-
ambassad...](https://www.businessinsider.com/china-slams-western-ambassadors-
over-plan-to-grill-uighur-persecution-2018-11), and last, how private
companies which drove the innovations in china are dying out to state
enterprises [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-24/china-
s-s...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-24/china-s-squeezed-
private-companies-face-more-funding-pain).

EDIT: clarified author

~~~
fatjokes
So any positive things said about China from a Chinese American should be
discounted?

~~~
joefranklinsrs
Nope, simply giving context

~~~
fatjokes
Then you neglected to include the ethnicities/nationalities of the
photographer, contributing authors, and editorial staff of the NYTimes.
Wouldn't that be similarly useful context?

~~~
joefranklinsrs
Now you are just grasping at straws :) but hey, everyone on the internet is a
racist right?

~~~
fatjokes
You didn't dig up some undisclosed connection between the author and the
Chinese communist party, or other business interests that may taint their
reporting. You are only suspicious because of their ethnicity.

And relax, as Avenue Q states: everybody's a little bit racist! But discussion
on HN is meant to be substantiative, and part of that is trying to avoid ad-
hominem attacks with a racist tint.

------
GreeniFi
“It’s different this time”.

