

Estimating the duration of software projects - fernando

Hi,<p>All my guestimates of project duration have been so far ridiculously optimistic and I usually err by a factor of 4x or worse.<p>Is there any way out of this? How can I improve my estimates? Is there ANY book or technique worth learning?<p>Any help would be greatly appreciated.
======
cperciva
_How can I improve my estimates?_

I've found that the more detailed my estimation process, the less optimistic
my estimates are. Generally speaking, if I break down what I'm planning on
doing into units which I think should take a month each, I end up with an
estimate which is 2x less than the actual time I will take; if I break things
down into units of a week each, I end up with an estimate which is optimistic
by a factor of 1.5x; but if I break things down into units which I think can
be done in a day each, I tend to come very close to being correct.

I don't know if this trend is something other people experience; but if it is,
the obvious solution is to think more carefully about all of the small steps
which make up the big steps.

------
bigtoga
Check out 37signals.com and BaseCamp. There are tons of books - a little
google searching is in order.

