
Tesla Faces Accelerating Rate of Model 3 Refunds - artsandsci
https://blog.secondmeasure.com/2018/06/04/tesla-faces-accelerating-rate-of-model-3-refunds/
======
Buetol
As somebody who got refunded: As much as I want to support Elon, I later
realized the full total cost of the car (having a garage, doing the
maintenance,..) wasn’t in my budget and that it’s simply better to invest in a
lifestyle where I just don’t need a car. Interrestingly, I had the same
conclusion about buying an house versus renting a appartment.

~~~
pxlpshr
I think Tesla's are beautiful and have set the bar, but if you want a capable
& cheap alternative, look at a used BMW i3. Resale value sunk for many reasons
but has bottomed.

<salesman>I bought a 2016 fully-loaded REX with 5,000 miles for under $25K,
sticker was $58K. Factory warranty for 4 years, 8 years on the battery.
Fastest BMW from 0-40mph. This thing flies for urban commuters. It comes with
a charger that can plug into a conventional socket which can be nice for
people who don't have the means to install a 240v. Fun to hack with BimmerCode
to customize all sorts of stuff. My big complaint is the rear door system is
awkward. It also rides a little high so I put 1" lowering springs and 15mm
wheel spacers which greatly improved handling.</salesman>

I'm also interested in testing the Jaguar iPace. By most performance measures,
its beaten the Model X.

~~~
dexterdog
i3 resale value sunk because it's ugly as sin.

~~~
unclebucknasty
It's like BMW didn't get the memo that electric cars don't have to look like
electric cars anymore.

~~~
jjtheblunt
i3 was an early one.

~~~
ben_w
Not early enough for that to be an excuse for BMW. It looks like it was
“inspired by” the style of a neon rubber G3 iBook.

------
ckastner
Yet another quarter has almost passed and, according to the Bloomberg estimate
[1], Tesla will yet again miss their goal of producing 5.000 cars a week -- by
far. In the most recent week, it was about half that, 2.560.

I guess some some people are just fed up with waiting.

[1] [https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-
tracker/](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/)

~~~
danhak
For some perspective, the Model 3 is already outselling the Chevy Bolt by a
factor of > 5x, and has already set the record for greatest monthly deliveries
EVER for a plug-in car in the U.S.

[https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-
scorecard/](https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/)

~~~
ams6110
The Bolt is hideously ugly.

~~~
stcredzero
No. The Aztek is hideously ugly. The Bolt is nowhere near that ugly. Also,
plenty of people don't care if something is ugly, if it's utilitarian.

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33AP0JnXSOA](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33AP0JnXSOA)

~~~
dabockster
> plenty of people don't care if something is ugly, if it's utilitarian

I am one of these people. I live in the Pacific Northwest, where it rains 7-8
months out of the year. A nice car will be totally ruined in a few weeks of
rain around here. So everyone just drives ugly Honda Accords and AWD Subarus.

Related side note, a teacher back when I was in HS about 10 years ago told a
story about how she saw Bill Gates driving a beat up mid 1990s Accura around
Seattle after he was crowned the world's wealthiest individual.

~~~
dpark
> _A nice car will be totally ruined in a few weeks of rain around here._

What are you talking about? PNW rain isn’t going to hurt your car unless you
leave the sunroof open.

Tons of people in Seattle drive late model luxury cars.

------
bald
At least in the Tesla fan community, a number of people got tired of waiting
and bought a Model S/X instead. It remains unclear how many upgraded and as a
result of this fell off the reservation list. They should have asked that as
well.

~~~
twblalock
It would be interesting to see how many of the waitlist cancellers bought
electric cars from other brands. The Bolt, the Leaf, and the BMW i3 are the
obvious alternatives.

~~~
djrogers
The Bolt, Leaf, and i3 are all fairly ugly. Most of the people I know waiting
for Model 3s are doing so in part because it's actually a decent to good
looking sedan, and not a weird jelly bean hatchback.

~~~
NikolaNovak
Right, but that's a fairly personal and perhaps even cultural thing.

When Chevy Bolt came out, virtually every north american automotive magazine
slammed its looks; and virtually every European immigrant friend of mine
absolutely loved them.

Similarly, the Sedan nature of Tesla3 appeals to a lot of my 4th-generation-
Canadian or -American colleagues, but screams impracticality and poor
visibility to others.

Like the UI (the all-touchscreen paradigm is a HUGE deal breaker for me - I
want buttons and levers I can operate without looking), the design is not
universal :)

(edit: note that I'm carefully not saying anything about the i3... I have yet
to meet a person even anecdotally who loves it for its looks - maybe it's just
too ahead of its time ;-)

~~~
crwalker
Anecdata: I love the i3 for its looks (do not own one).

------
aerovistae
This is such a stupid article. Why do people insist on pursuing the idea that
there may not be enough demand for the model 3? A car that Tesla can’t even
produce enough of yet to meet a fraction of the demand from people _already_
on the waiting list, all without having done any advertising, and everyone’s
fretting nobody will want to buy it. It’s absurd.

~~~
caymanjim
The article isn't fretting about a lack of demand. Clearly the demand is
there. Tesla just absolutely sucks at delivering. I'm going to buy a new car
this weekend, and if I could actually get a Tesla Model 3, I would. But I need
a car, and I'm not getting in line and waiting a year on the off chance that
they figure out how to actually manufacture something.

~~~
rich-w-big-ego
You're not being consistent, and revealing your anti-Tesla bias. They have
figured out to manufacture the Model 3, they deliver new serial numbers of
that car every day of the week. And like I usually say in my replies in Tesla
threads, it's really something to be grateful for that America is still a
place where a car company can be built, and we should all share a collective
pride towards those who have carved out the future for young Americans and
young people around the world. I understand that you won't be buying a Tesla
this weekend because they are not available but I really feel that the anti-
Tesla bias is very much misplaced and resentful towards one of the greatest
blessings of the 21st century.

~~~
garmaine
> it's really something to be grateful for that America is still a place where
> a car company can be built

we should be proud we can manage to do something we've already been doing for
100 years?

~~~
aerovistae
Yes, we should indeed be proud that we can still do it over from scratch with
new technology, since the past fifty years implied pretty strongly that we
actually couldn't anymore, and certainly I don't see new car companies
springing up anywhere else besides China.

What's more, by that clever little formulation of yours, you can cynically
dismiss so many things of value. Why be proud of anything anyone does here
unless you've never seen anything like it before on the face of this earth,
right?

------
callumprentice
I ordered two (for me and my wife) the second online ordering opened via my
phone at a restaurant as it happens which was novel since we were having a
meal with out-of-town friends at the time.

We were both very immensely excited but when it became clear that the first
release wasn't going to be the inexpensive model we decided to cancel and get
a refund. AFAICT, it's still not clear when that model will be available so I
think we made the right choice.

~~~
gist
> which was novel since we were having a meal with out-of-town friends at the
> time. We were both very immensely excited

Behaviorally I am wondering to what extent the fact that you were having a
good time with friends (and potentially drinking alcohol and/or at least
enjoying your food) played a role in what appears to be an impulse purchase?

I say this knowing from way back how there are high end stores that give you
food and alcohol while shopping (I have experienced that) and the idea tends
to be to get you to purchase more than you would as a result of the heightened
mood.

Curious on your take on this and playing a role?

~~~
callumprentice
Great question and I know what you mean but honestly, I think very little.

We'd been planning to order them for some time, following the news stories
etc. and were going to order them at home on a desktop machine but our friends
arrived from out of town, wanted to go out and eat dinner so we needed an
alternative plan.

We didn't want to miss out so I tried using the phone almost as soon as we sat
down and was pleasantly surprised by how painless the whole experience was,
even on an older phone.

Made for some good subsequent dinner time conversation though :)

------
RyanShook
A couple months ago I got an email saying my Model 3 was ready to be
configured. Chose all the base options and saved the order. When I came back
the next day the page said I was still on the waiting list as if nothing had
been configured... still have my reservation but think a 35k Model 3 may never
actually exist.

~~~
Talyen42
Can't help but think this is on purpose. Elon straight up said they can't sell
mostly base models right now and survive, they need premium configs to stay
afloat.

~~~
rich-and-poor
Tesla does not need to sell premium configs to "stay afloat". They are selling
premium configs so that their margins are not so brutally low, so that they
don't get roasted for that as well. Honestly, Tesla can not win: Sell low
margin base models, have a terrible quarter and get roasted. Sell high margin,
high trim models and get roasted for high priced cars. They can not win.

~~~
RyanShook
I agreee that they are bound to upset either investors or consumers but Elon
often promises the moon for both and I think that is what gets him in trouble
most often. Would there be record reservations if the Model 3 was advertised
as 50k base?

~~~
rich-and-poor
No but then they would be lying because base is 35k.

------
abalone
Where is Second Measure getting their data from? Is it statistically valid?
They say they analyze "billions of anonymized purchases" which suggests some
sort of credit card or bank account scraping.[1] Like the sort of thing those
budget management apps do. But... given how small the Model 3 customer base is
and how affluent they are, how likely are they to participate in such schemes?

Or are they buying wholesale aggregate data from credit card companies? Can
they do that?

[1] [https://www.quora.com/Where-does-Second-Measure-get-its-
cust...](https://www.quora.com/Where-does-Second-Measure-get-its-customer-
transaction-data)

~~~
jacobwal
Not sure about Second Measure specifically, but many credit card players sell
anonymized purchasing data. Investors often look at this to predict how
companies are performing.

------
jerrysievert
while I'm not too surprised that people want refunds on deposits as schedules
for luxury goods slip, I feel that the article might have been a little more
substance had they included information about percentages of deposit refunds
among other verticals, and how those are affected by delays.

otherwise, this article feels rather flat.

~~~
rsynnott
Are there really many comparables? I can’t really think of many scenarios
where a normal consumer pays a four figure deposit on something which doesn’t
have a release date.

------
api
I have a new personal hypothesis on Elon and his companies.

Elon's companies are not necessarily better run than other companies, and in
some cases are worse run. Their success and Elon's cult status as an innovator
is a result not of above-average managerial competence but of a willingness to
unilaterally defy the Nash equilibria of industries.

Automobiles, space flight, and energy are industries that have been stagnant
for some time. Stagnation of an industry means that it's found some kind of
Nash equilibrium where it's not really in anyone's short term best interest to
innovate much or otherwise deviate from the norm.

Elon doesn't give a rat's you-know-what and innovates _anyway_. Game
theoretically he _defects_. This results in companies that are loss-making in
the short term, but if successful they will define a new Nash equilibrium
where they are positioned to lead or at least to have carved out a significant
chunk.

Another way of putting this is that Elon is willing to try to cross fitness
valleys between local maxima.

It's a gamble of course: can you reach the next fitness peak / equilibrium
point before you run out of cash? This is very hard, and is why Nash
equilibria / fitness local maxima are so stubborn.

~~~
st26
I'd put it even simpler. He's betting on uncertain future technologies, where
it's completely unclear if the technology he is pursuing will work out.

Ten years ago nobody was particularly certain electric cars could ever be
feasible, and currently nobody is sure that hyperloop will ever be feasible
either.

In other words, is that next fitness peak even there? Or is it a mirage?

I don't think the current major players are lazily sitting on their hands,
they just tend to focus more on the march of incremental improvement than blue
sky research. Which can be incredibly valuable- the last hundred years of
automobiles and fifty years of semiconductor manufacturing has been mostly the
march of incremental improvement.

~~~
nkoren
No, I think the parent has the right of it. I'm not equipped to analyse Tesla
as well as I am for SpaceX, but I can say that the latter was _not_ a bet on
uncertain future technologies. While they have certainly deployed some pretty
nifty technologies along the way, those have been in service of comparatively
marginal improvements (improving payload margins). The more fundamental
innovations in cost-reduction and reusability have _not_ been particularly
technology-driven, and could have been accomplished in the 1980s if not
earlier.[1]

For example: putting most of your operations under the same roof, with
engineering right next to manufacturing, and employing common fuel, engines,
and tank manufacturing techniques for all stages. Nothing about that was at
all technologically risky -- but SpaceX was able to get maybe the first 50% of
its cost-savings simply by doing that.

What prevented this from happening in the past wasn't technology, but a Nash
equilibrium, as the parent rightly says. Existing rocket makers couldn't put
all their operations in one place because that would mean eliminating jobs in
scores of congressional districts while only creating jobs in one or two.
Would make too many enemies in congress that way, and because the government
is the primary customer, you'd never get another launch contract again. And
there isn't enough private demand demand to make up the difference, because
the cost of spaceflight is so high. The cost of spaceflight is too high,
because rocket R&D and manufacturing is split up over hundreds of facilities
in dozens of states, creating insane inefficiencies. (Back in the 90s, one
fellow I met who worked on the Atlas program told me that they had 7 managers
for every engineer). And you can't reduce those inefficiencies because that
would mean eliminating jobs in scores of congressional districts, etc...

See, the logic of the industry was self-supporting and entirely circular. Elon
Musk's genius was in simply _breaking this logic_ , and aiming for a new
equilibrium where rockets are cheap, there's a strong market for private
launch services, and contracts aren't awarded on the basis of how many jobs
they'll create. Cool technology wasn't the key to this.

Like I say, I'm less well-equipped to analyze Tesla, but I can already detect
a similar pattern of equilibrium-disrupting innovation with how he's
approaching The Boring Company.

1: The Delta Clipper
([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_DC-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_DC-X))
demonstrated all the critical tech that you need for a reusable Falcon 9, in
the early 1990s. It was preceded by some classified programs that accomplished
broadly similar feats as much as a decade earlier.

~~~
greglindahl
Overall I agree with your SpaceX comments, but I don't think the Delta Clipper
demonstrated supersonic retropropulsion, which was never done before and is
cited by the CNES director of launches as being a key technology.

[https://satelliteobservation.net/2018/06/02/cnes-director-
of...](https://satelliteobservation.net/2018/06/02/cnes-director-of-launchers-
talks-reusable-rockets/)

> An engine is relit while going against the aerodynamic flow, which is
> actually quite complicated to achieve. We worked on that with ONERA, the
> French national aerospace lab, and realized it’s pretty complicated.

~~~
nkoren
Ah, you're quite right, very fair point. Supersonic retropropulsion was indeed
a novel technology that ended up in their critical path. Interesting to
speculate on what they might've done if that hadn't worked out! Are there more
off-the-shelf techniques that might've been good enough? (Eg. nose-first re-
entry with a deployable heat shield.)

Anyhow, obviously SpaceX has done many other very technologically innovative
things as well. But this would all have been a moot point if they'd operated
per the rules of the existing industry, on cost-plus contracts with a wildly
distributed workforce with each department or subcontractor focused on
optimising its own particular subsystem without consideration of the whole.
Breaking that paradigm was far and away the most important innovation of
SpaceX today.

It's worth noting that they've now _gotten_ the gains from escaping the
industry's old local maxima, and that going forward (with the BFR) they're
going to be more reliant on novel technologies than they have been to date.
But they'll also be reliant on the emergence of new markets for spaceflight at
the much-lower price point. I suspect that StarLink is part of this effort --
apart from being a good idea in its own right, it's a way of Musk saying to
the world: "See guys? This kind of thing is what you can do with really cheap
and reliable spaceflight! Start thinking on this scale, people!!!"

------
ansible
It is interesting that at the same time, sales of the Chevy Bolt aren't doing
too good. This despite that at least a few reviews I've seen indicate it is a
decent EV with decent range.

[https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/04/05/ev-sales-
table.asp...](https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/04/05/ev-sales-table.aspx)

~~~
Zhenya
I don't get GM. Just make it look like a ATS or something sporty.

Cars are still a fashion statement and a social signal. What are you saying
with the bolt?

~~~
thefounder
I believe they don't want to sell many...just like BMW did with i3

~~~
adventured
That's plausible. It's also a really bad way to go. Tesla will hit ~$16-$18
billion in sales in 2018. All of that directly comes out of the pockets of
BMW, Mercedes, Toyota (Lexus), Honda (Acura), and Nissan (Infiniti).

If they keep giving Tesla time, they might actually reach a point of being
financially self-sustaining. In two more fiscal years they'll probably be at
$28 billion in sales.

------
dantiberian
The title of this article is a bit misleading. Tesla is facing an accelerating
rate of Model 3 _deposit_ refunds. This is still not great, but as worded the
title suggests people are unhappy with the Model 3's being delivered. The real
(still big!) issue is that people are cancelling their reservation before the
Model 3 is delivered.

------
yumraj
I can totally relate, while we need a car upgrade right now/soon and I can
currently configure and order a Model 3, I'm waiting for the 35K version as I
just don't see a need for the current longer range model.

But at the same time there is no real alternate if I want an EV so I'm
waiting. Worst thing is that the federal credit may expire by the time I can
order the 35K version.

If my current car, a Prius, that needs to be updated dies, my 2 options are
Prius Prime or the Honda Clarity Plug-in.

~~~
markab21
I visited a friend, and he showed me his goofy car, a Chevrolet Volt. This
person is someone I'd met at a flying safety conference (I'm a pilot/aircraft
owner) as was he and we became friends. He'd made his money in the 80's/90's
selling his software company which produced accounting software and retired.

I was astonished to hear he'd sold his Lexus for this car. After driving it a
few times, I became a bit intrigued. It was goofy, but one of the smoothest
power-delivery I'd experienced in a car (I've never driven an electric) and
the feel of the car felt good. It's not a luxury car but didn't seem to be
lacking much.

Long story short, three months later I had traded in my Porsche Macan SUV for
a Chevy Volt, the 65-mile range gets me 99% of the time where I need to go,
and I've loved not having to stop at gas stations, almost ever. I would have
bought the Bolt if I'd been able to get one, but this was late 2016, and they
just weren't available.

Looking back, for what I paid for the car, what I'm spending on the car for
fuel (electricity) and relative maintenance (almost none), this has probably
been the best car I've ever owned. I went from considering purchasing a Tesla
to now not even being interested because I have everything I need out of a car
and am somehow at that rare place of being happy with the relatively modest
vehicle.

To anyone considering a Volt, do not discount what a value this car is in the
market if you have an effective way to charge the thing and it matches your
commute cycle. I'll never be able to see petrol cars the same again. (I got a
dealer demo with 500 miles for $30k and was able to get a $7500 tax credit),
costing $22.5k for a new car. LOVE the vehicle and went from never owning a
Chevrolet or American vehicle to now absolutely loving the car even though
some people might find the car unattractive.

Buy what you like, but what works for you. There are excellent options out
there now on the electric market, the problem for some is one of the most
practical options is a Chevrolet.

------
Liuser
Been thinking of cancelling my reservation as well. My need for a car has
dramatically decreased in the last couple of years with the ubiquity of ride
sharing services. Now with last mile services spreading more and more
(scooters/bike shares) I'm thinking this trend will only increase.

I take the bus and bike to work. Small groceries are also done by bicycle.
Whenever I go out to eat with my wife we use a ride sharing service because we
enjoy a drink or two with our meals.

~~~
Zhenya
If you plan on having children and live anywhere in the US (including SF,
excluding Manhattan), you'll most likely need a car for Drs visits etc.

~~~
nervousvarun
Why would Uber not work for this?

Not necessarily disputing you, just wanted some clarification on why you think
that. Anecdotally I know several carless couples with children ostensibly
making it work for "unplanned" auto trips via Uber. They live close enough to
walk for "planned" trips like grocery store/work etc.

Obviously you'd need to live close to those things but that was a major factor
in their choice of home (location).

~~~
ben1040
When the kids are small, where do you find an Uber with one or more suitable
car seats?

It seems there's spotty availability in a few cities, but the standard from
Uber is you get a single car seat appropriate for a child >12 months old.

Or do you supply your own, and then drag the seat(s) around with you at your
destination?

~~~
jumpingdeeps
Its quite easy to supply your own, as long as you find a lightweight stroller
to drop the car seat into. As I commented above, (sorry to be redundant): Most
infant car seats can be installed without the base in a car and typically
connect with various lightweight (snap and go) strollers making portability
via ride-share easy. There are one or two convertible car seat/lightweight
stroller combos (for toddlers) that are very popular with urban parents who
need to use ride shares. They are also useful when you travel via airplane.
For example the Cosco Scenera car seat and the Mountain Buggy Nano stroller.
([https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LotN7k5T2Q](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LotN7k5T2Q))

------
TekMol
What are the key features of a Tesla Model 3 that make people wait several
years for their car instead of just going to a car dealership and buying what
is available right now?

~~~
freerobby
1\. Convenience of all electric (start every day w/ "full tank", no oil
changes or other regular maintenance)

2a. Social mission of the company/product

2b. Carbon footprint per mile driven gets better with age of car, rather than
worse like with an ICE.

3\. Autopilot

4\. FSD hardware ready (even if you don't believe this, it's an advertised
feature and may motivate some buyers)

5\. No dealing with car salespeople

~~~
asdsa5325
> Social mission of the company/product

What is your opinion on Elon's plan to "rate" journalists? (He was upset about
"unfair" coverage of Tesla.)

~~~
freerobby
Sloppy reporting and bad journalistic incentives are real problems, but Elon's
solution is uncharacteristically dumb. Even outright falsehoods can be
difficult to refute, let alone subtler varieties like "lies of omission." Few
folks will see them for what they are.

As for Tesla coverage, my observation is that Elon is usually correct on the
merits of his frustrations, but he always responds in the most defensive and
tonedeaf way possible. I think he forgets that the people he needs to convince
aren't the ones attacking him, but the ones watching from the sidelines. I
consider myself a huge fan of his, and the way he comports himself often makes
me sad.

My biggest pet peeve is that sometimes he'll cite a half-truth rather than a
real truth, even when the real truth is on his side. His defense of Autopilot
is a good example -- the data showing that Autopilot reduced crashes by 40% is
very compelling, but he continues to cite the 1:340M miles stat which at best
has a bunch of lurking variables. I understand why he does it -- it's easier
to explain and it provides a baseline against the field rather than against
Tesla's pre-AP vehicles. But it's dishonest, which is a bad look, especially
when you're getting all pissy at the media for its dishonesty.

------
gregoriol
I don't know about 25%, I've read 12% somewhere, but I'm thinking about it. I
was not one of the first to pre-order and I'm not in the US, which makes the
waiting time.. extra long. I'm wondering if by then (something like mid-2019 I
guess) it won't be easier to get a "used" one, or even a used model S. I also
don't like the opaque pricing: pretty sure with the options I'd like it'll
cost no less than 50k€, which is far from the announced low cost. I still like
the idea to get a model 3 though, and there is no good alternative as of
today.

~~~
venning
> _I 've read 12% somewhere_

In the article. Musk stated 12% last August.

------
goshx
I reserved on 04/01/2016 and I am still holding my reservation, but not with
the same enthusiasm. I love Tesla and Elon and I hope they succeed, but as I
consumer I see the $35k as the equivalent of a click bait. It was the “click
bait of the decade”. If I don’t get tired and get a refund, I’ll probably
purchase the $49k version. But boy, is it frustrating to see Canadians that
placed orders long after me receiving their cars. I understand the reasons,
but still.

~~~
rich-and-poor
Everyone wants the future cheaper, faster, and without any compromise, even if
there is only a single whipping boy (Elon) to bring it to him

~~~
goshx
I just want the future without the wrong expectations set.

Everybody who reserved knew they’d have to wait. That was and still is the
compromise. If at least you could tell me any other situation where people
compromised this much for something they believed and wanted.

------
thecosas
Where does SecondMeasure get their data?

I can imagine companies not being super happy about this info getting out,
particularly if there are fiscal/stock implications.

------
BadassFractal
The guy went 40M into debt to finance the company as it almost died a decade
ago. Refunds increasing is hardly a hurdle.

------
gwbas1c
The problem with the reservation system is that I couldn't wait any longer. My
Leaf's lease was up, so my wife and I delayed to the AWD version and bought a
different car.

Who knows what will happen when the AWD version comes? Will I be willing to
replace our other car that we planned on keeping a few years longer?

------
manicdee
The biggest question on my mind is whether there's a market for 500,000 Model
3 a year ongoing. BMW is an established player and they sell less than that
across their entire range.

~~~
mixmastamyk
Depends on the price and other factors over then next few years.

------
dghughes
I think the Chevy Bolt all electric vehicle is luring some customers. It's not
as sexy but it's ~400km range and availability right now make it a great buy.

------
0x4f3759df
Is it unwise to buy the first version of car? Seems like you wouldn't want to
buy something until they get the kinks out, maybe a few years after
production.

------
fallingfrog
I feel like this has more to do with the turning of the economic cycle than
with tesla specifically.. any debt funded spending is starting to dry up.

------
rjplatte
We just need to wait for Toyota to release an EV capitalizing on the ~127mpgE
of the Prius Prime, and kill everyone else for a little while.

------
johnvega
I plan to buy Model 3 in about 2 years or so, so this is great news!

------
sschueller
I wonder if they will change the policy on the full refund.

------
trumped
at least Tesla got to use those interest-free loans for quite a while...

------
venning
Mods, can you change this to the original source article?

[https://blog.secondmeasure.com/2018/06/04/tesla-faces-
accele...](https://blog.secondmeasure.com/2018/06/04/tesla-faces-accelerating-
rate-of-model-3-refunds/)

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sctb
Thanks! We've updated the link from [https://boingboing.net/2018/06/04/report-
almost-25-of-tesla-...](https://boingboing.net/2018/06/04/report-almost-25-of-
tesla-mo.html), which points to Engadget, which points to this.

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josefresco
Data is based on a report by Second Measure:
[https://secondmeasure.com](https://secondmeasure.com)

Y Combinator is listed on their website as a ... customer?

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venning
A quick Googling says they are Summer class of 2015.

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fnordfnordfnord
This pertains to the people who plunked down a thousand bucks to get in line
for one. This is an interesting tidbit, but also a non-story.

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nck4222
It was a win-win either way for Tesla. Worst case scenario for them, they got
an interest free loan. They could've just put that money in a savings account
and made free money off the 1% interest.

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jonknee
It's not a win win to lose potential customers because you could have made a
few bucks in interest in the process.

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nck4222
I'm sure there was an expectation that some percentage of pre orders would
refund. I don't think the fact that 23% we're refunded should be used to say
Tesla lost customers, considering they're still plus several hundred thousand
pre orders.

At the end of the day Tesla was able to guage demand, get hundreds of
thousands of orders placed (even with the refunds) and get millions of dollars
to use for investment/production.

Yeah ideally for Tesla no one would all for a refund, but I'm sure they
expected some and this still seems like a big win for Tesla.

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jonknee
A big win for Tesla would be if they were able to produce the car at the
pricing and timing they said they were going to. Right now it's at least 50%
more expensive and way behind schedule, there is no way to call it a "big
win". I bet taking deposits for a car that they have no intention of actually
selling for years is a good way to turn a lot of potential customers off.

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nck4222
If that were true there would be way more than 25% refunded. I honestly
expected it to be more, even if they had met their production schedule.

