
Theory of Peak Advertising and  the Future of the Web (2013) - Ibethewalrus
http://peakads.org/
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newsbinator
> We may very well reach and pass the point of Peak Advertising without any
> significant innovation emerging to maintain and grow the flow of revenue
> supporting the Internet.

> What will be left with is a stagnant and ever eroding flow of revenue from
> the primary sources of advertising, and the inadequate substitution of new
> forms of advertising in its place. Of the few players that remain, they will
> produce a web experience that engineers the erosion of user privacy and the
> blurring of the line between real content and advertising.

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unreal37
What is an "ad" really? There are companies who will pay money for a bit of
attention, and companies who get some attention willing to sell it.

There will always be a market for selling attention. Always. It's never going
away. Attention is a valuable commodity and companies are willing to pay for
some.

CPMs, CPCs, CPAs... don't matter. There's a budget for ads, and that budget
will get spent. Who it goes to and how much attention it buys them will
change.

When I left the web dev game last year, the big exciting trend was dynamic
bidding systems, where many different ad networks would bid to show you an ad
in real time. [1]

Advertisers are adapting. Publishers are adapting. RTB comes and increases
profits and in the end, publishers who adapt do fine.

While CPMs for traditional banner ads continue to fall, that just means the
market for selling attention has moved on to something else.

[1] [https://clearcode.cc/blog/real-time-
bidding/](https://clearcode.cc/blog/real-time-bidding/)

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bobajeff
>Someone might develop a behavioral targeting system that perfectly delivers
compelling ads to the right customer flawlessly. The current failure to do so
even with massive data about user behavior seems to discount this scenario.

Google and everyone's investment into AI and digital assistants makes a lot
more sense.

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dmos62
It's cool to have something to reference when you're talking about peak web
advertising. Other than that, the key points as summed up on peakads.org seem
plain obvious.

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joeatyl
This is prophetic.

