
Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides] - mrDmrTmrJ
https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1IUTHX2kTagUUV88HUJCkp_P6iZgLCXXVHD9UeOwU_1w/mobilepresent?slide=id.g71b0a47020_30_486
======
testfoobar
The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic
catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay
people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time.

The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe
going back out.

1\. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2\. Deploy them
to every business, every institution. 3\. Test everybody coming into work
every morning. 4\. Isolate and quarantine the positive ones. 5\. Elderly and
immunocompromised self-quarantine.

Lets find the actual contours of this infection within the population. And
then squeeze it down.

\- Want to get into a theme park? You need a negative test result on your
phone from this morning.

\- You got tested at one of the thousands of mobile test stations. You
received a code with your test.

\- 15 minutes later, you get a test result on your phone - also sent to a
national database in real time.

\- The theme park worker scans your phone and validates the result.

This is not a fool-proof system. But it or something like it will instantly
reduce anxiety of people trying to work.

If you knew that everyone at your coffee house, at your gym, in your lecture
hall, etc. tested negative in the morning. You'd feel safer and we'd all be
able to move forward.

~~~
zouhair
> It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people,
> businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time.

Why not? This is a matter of survival. If the economic system breaks because
of one pandemic that will last less than a year maybe that economic system
needs to die and be replaced by something more solid and useful for most.

~~~
kjksf
It's not about abstract "economic system".

Let me put it in simple word: you'll loose your job. Your friends and family
will loose their jobs.

As a result, when your savings run out, you'll loose your appartement. And so
will your friends and family.

You won't be able to afford food without government assistance.

And even if shutdown lasts only 30 days, it'll wreck the economy for a long
time. Once a restaurant defaults and closes, it won't just re-open. Those jobs
will be lost for a long time.

Now, maybe you're one of the lucky ones with enough savings to ride this out
and this won't affect you. But it'll affect millions of others.

~~~
zouhair
Why do we need jobs to survive? That alone is an insane system. We desperately
need to separate work activity and survivability.

Even without this pandemic, we live in a World where there is enough shelter,
food and drugs for everyone but we still have homeless people, people starving
or at the least malnourished and people dying in a rich country because they
have to ration fucking insulin.

This economic system is not working at all. People die every die directly
because of this system[0]. This pandemic just brings it to light.

[0]:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structural_violence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structural_violence)

~~~
syshum
Yep, this situation is a socialist wet dream

Of course socialism is a failed economic model but hey maybe this time it will
work /s

~~~
zouhair
How is it a failed system? I'd say people cannot afford insulin is proof
enough that Capitalism is a failed system.

Just go ask Argentina[0], collapsing months after IMF was praising the "good"
work Argentina was doing and how a good Capitalist country it has become[1].

This pandemic just made most people feel what the lives of billions is like
all year long under Capitalism. And your dismissive comment is just shameful
and disgusting.

[0]:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998%E2%80%932002_Argentine_gr...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998%E2%80%932002_Argentine_great_depression)

[1]:
[https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2000/03/pou.htm](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2000/03/pou.htm)

~~~
syshum
>>How is it a failed system?

ohh I dont know, the millions upon millions that have died in starvation due
to socialism over the many decades that it has been tried

but those where not "real socialism" right....

Pointing to one good that some people can not afford (the reason is largely
due to government control not capitalism BTW) does not in any way "prove
capitalism failed"

it is true that sometimes with capitalism you will get breadlines, but with
socialism sometimes you get bread

~~~
zouhair
It's really something witnessing /r/the_donald spill over here.

~~~
syshum
It is really something to have people confuse libertarianism with Donald Trump

------
lettergram
One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the
economy.

Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast
majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually
know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we
wouldn’t know.

At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine.
Think about that for a second...

Now consider the fact that the supply chain is also all kinds of messed up and
with the loss of jobs people have less money.

Finally, save this, but I don’t think the US quarantine is going to do much to
lower the curve. Simply put, the west is not prepared. Our checkouts are run
by people without masks or gloves. People still are closer than 2 meters (or 6
feet).

To lower the curve we’d need strict quarantine (no leaving the house) for a
month or two. Even then we won’t have enough masks, hopefully we’d have enough
ventilators and tests by then...

Point is, we are tanking our economy and mark my words — it won’t work. People
voted, had spring break, celebrated st. Patrick’s day went out shopping in
droves. It’s likely too late, one sick per household and they infect the whole
house.

All this to say: we are losing our economy and probably this isn’t effective.

~~~
booleandilemma
New Yorker here. From what I see through my window, my fellow New Yorkers
still don’t “get it”. I see clusters of people hanging out and families going
for leisurely walks. If this keeps up the number of infections - and deaths -
will only increase.

Last week my brother suggested instead of working from home I work from a
Starbucks.

I feel like people don’t understand how serious this is and it’s really
bothering me.

~~~
maxerickson
There's nothing wrong with people that are living together going for a walk
together, it won't particularly increase their exposure.

People should cooperate and keep distance, but it's not a big deal to just be
outside a reasonable distance from small numbers of other people.

~~~
war1025
Something that amused me the other day was was an NPR reporter saying, "I went
to the park yesterday and I was surprised at all the people just out in the
park" as if they didn't also make the choice to go to the park.

~~~
senordevnyc
I feel this. Every time I go out (to the park) I’m amazed at how many people
are out. I start thinking about how we’re doomed, because people obviously
aren’t taking this seriously. I mean, they’re at the park instead of huddled
in their apartment!

Then I remember I’m at the park too...

------
codingslave
The stock market is largely collapsing because:

1.) Hedge funds levered up their capital 5 - 15x to make more money, then got
caught with their pants down. So they all panic sold at once, crashing the
market.

2.) CEOs of large corporations used cash to buy back their stock, inflating
the stock price, and depleting their cash reserves. So now those same
companies are on the brink of collapse, causing the credit markets to
collapse, the stock market to collapse, and the rest with it. They can buy 50B
worth of their own stock, but cant pay employees for a month without revenue.

This whole mess is in part due to financial engineering taken down by a black
swan event. CEOs should be in jail and so should finance professionals. Laws
need to be passed so that finance individuals cannot ruin the market for their
own financial gain.

~~~
TheSpiceIsLife
Why should anyone be punished for failing to plan for a _black swan_ event?

 _Black swan_ events are unpredictable and outside of what is normally
expected.

~~~
kingaillas
I'm not even that old and this is the 3rd black swan event in the last 2
decades: terrorist attacks of 9/11/2001, financial meltdown in 2008-2009, and
this 2020 global pandemic.

There were also 3 other localized outbreaks (SARS in 2003, Swine Flu in 2009,
MERS in 2012) so that to me sounds like we were 3 viral mutations away from
this being the 4th global pandemic in 20 years.

If we're structuring business and our economies such that they fall over or
require ~1 trillion dollars for bailouts, every 4-7 years on average, then
something is vastly, massively, completely, extremely wrong with our approach.

I don't care how many economics nobel prizes are racked up by theorists; or
about efficient market theory and blah blah blah. These systems are failing in
the real world and that's the only existence proof needed.

Running a just-in-time razor-thin-margins all-profits-reinvested-no-savings
business is great in theory but apparently the wind blowing from the wrong
direction destroys it all. It has the feeling of the economics/finance version
of a physicist assuming a spherical car in a perfect vacuum with a point
source of gravity when designing a system that has to survive actual usage.

~~~
nomad1987
The gains inbetween these events far outweigh the cost of the bailout no?

Those who prepare well (3-6 months of reserves) will be ok, other businesses
will need to perish to teach others a lesson.

~~~
ip26
_The gains inbetween these events far outweigh the cost of the bailout no?_

You are literally advocating "Privatize the gains, socialize the losses", no?

 _' It's ok that the (public) government bails them out, because the (private)
companies made even more money'_

------
JMTQp8lwXL
Instead of hundreds of billions in loans to businesses, which have to be
underwritten -- and as discussed on Slides 17/18, the SBA did an abysmal job
administrating during Hurricane Sandy, helicopter money might be the better
answer.

Give everyone money, no criteria. If we do impose income limits, and since
viable proposals do -- we ought to discuss it. Give them a check now anyways.
We cannot be worried people will be "annoyed" if they owe their check back
come next tax season. Future annoyance is a small price to pay if these
businesses can't stay afloat. We will be feeling the effects for far longer
than a quarter. The helicopter money needs to be distributed as soon as
possible.

~~~
lotsofpulp
Why income limits? Would it not be easier and faster to just adjust marginal
tax rates and simply give everyone money right now?

~~~
JoshuaDavid
That is the question -- it might legitimately be harder to adjust marginal tax
rates than to add an income limit, even if the outcomes would be identical
either way.

~~~
lotsofpulp
I meant logistically easier.

------
carapace
Distinguish between wealth and paperwork. As Bucky Fuller pointed out, if all
the paperwork disappeared overnight we would have a hellofa fight over who
owns what, but no one would (necessarily) starve. If the wealth itself
disappeared: the factories, the distribution networks, and so on, we would be
screwed.

In the situation today the physical basis of wealth is not under attack, the
"human capital" is.

As long as the food and water keep coming we'll eventually be all right, keep
your head, and keep your eye on the fundamentals: In approximate rank order
from most important to lesser-but-still-very important, the base of Maslow's
Hierarchy of Human Needs:

+Water (also soap!)

+Food Production & Distribution & Waste Management.

+Communications (under which I include governance)

+Electric Power

Pervading and fundamental to all these are keeping a level head and a civil
society.

"It may seem a ridiculous idea, but the only way to fight the plague is with
decency." ~Camus

------
fl4bfl4b
Better solution:
[https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YbtJGn7ida2IYNgwCFk3Sjhs...](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YbtJGn7ida2IYNgwCFk3SjhsZ0ztpG5bMzA3WNbVNhU/edit#)

We can shelter-in-place as long as needed. And no businesses go under, and no
one loses their home.

~~~
ccktlmazeltov
> First, we pause all fixed financial obligations, which are what’s crushing
> our economy right now. Right now, we’re in a crunch: people can’t work, and
> so they can’t make payments on mortgages and rents.

Totally agree, it is insane that some families are under the threat of
eviction because they live paycheck to paycheck and cannot afford to pay rent
now. Same for small businesses who cannot afford to pay rent.

I'm sure some landlords will do the right thing, but we can't trust all
landlords to do the right thing. Something has to be done at the federal
level, and it's now or never.

UBI would be another way to get around this BTW.

~~~
ip26
It isn't about landlords doing the "right thing". Landlords have debt to pay,
generally aren't sitting on mountains of free cash, and foreclosure of the
property you are renting is functionally similar to eviction.

~~~
ccktlmazeltov
to re-iterate the other comment: landlords have landlords.

~~~
akiselev
_> First, we pause all fixed financial obligation_

Keyword: _all_. That includes landlords' financial obligation to their
landlords. And their landlords. And their landlords. And their landlords. Ad
infinitum.

------
gdubs
Like a plane crash, there's a moment where the error is realized. Someone says
'oh sh!t' on the flight recorder when they realize the error, and that there's
no time left to correct. Yet enough time remains to wait.

That's what this month has felt like. The grave error, in my opinion, was
refusing to take dramatic action early on. We couldn't tolerate _any_ economic
slowdown, so dice were rolled, and here we are. Add in the (criminal) failure
of testing in the United States...

It's been a _week_ and you see plenty of calls to 'think of the economy', and
put an end to the shelter-in-place. One week. But like I keep saying, this
isn't a binary choice. It's not clear that we could just 'chose the economy'
at this point, because of the path that was chosen weeks ago – which is a
narrower, far more dangerous path, to both the global health, and the economy.
Short-term thinking at its worst.

But this is not a literal plane crash. The majority of us will live. It's
about the kind of world we want on the other side of this. What we need now is
global cooperation to share knowledge and resources. We need people to come to
their senses so we can make smart decisions and make sure we don't throw out
our constitutional rights in the process. We need as much urgency in bailing
out the millions of people who are already losing their jobs, as there is for
the airlines that spent the vast majority of profits on buying back their
stock.

There's cognitive dissonance at play. "This can't _really_ be the situation
we're in?" Well, it is. This path was chosen. Now we need to buckle-up and
learn rapidly from the mistakes we've made.

------
georgeburdell
If you are rich enough, you should be thinking about which small businesses
you rely on and pull-in your purchases. My car mechanic just sent me an e-mail
out of the blue advertising that they were still open. I will definitely be
getting my car serviced early next week, even though it's a few months early.
At work, I'm pulling in some of my "nice to have" projects to keep my favorite
vendors (who haven't been shut down) busy.

------
glass_of_water
This appears to be an appeal by Womply to direct a ton of stimulus money
toward them, so that they can make loans to small businesses (instead of the
Small Business Administration), and then they can take a cut of that.

~~~
danieltillett
This appears to be a very ungenerous reading of the slide deck. This is a time
everyone needs to pitch in and do what needs to be done.

~~~
jellicle
Yeah, this is no time to criticize grifting.

Previous commenter has nailed it directly: opportunists see a mountain of
money heading out from government to the public and they want to insert
themselves in the middle and grab a big chunk of it.

I mean, these businesses file tax returns and the government has an address
and even a bank account on file for them. Government could... write them a
check. I've just provided all the value Womply provides in getting money to
small businesses, pay me.

------
anovikov
Soviet approach to solving the problem would be: don't tell anyone.

There was a major flu epidemic that killed 100K+ in the Soviet Union in
1977-78 (long after gulags and all the scary Soviet stuff, when living
standards were among the world's top, comparable to poorer Western European
countries like Italy and Spain). None of my older relatives ever heard of it.
just some old people died, that's it. Absolute zero of economic or social
consequences. I think kids didn't go to school for some weeks and maybe
streets were cleaned bit better than usual, nothing worse.

------
unexaminedlife
It's articles like this that really make me facepalm, shake my head and say
"this isn't about whether America could survive this". America is the last of
our concern. Almost ALL of the other countries on planet Earth have orders of
magnitude LESS resources (in every sense of the word) than we do. Think about
how likely those countries aren't going to fall into chaos. Their governments
aren't equipped to deal with this sort of thing.

~~~
captain_crabs
Part of the benefit of living in America is the fact America will put it's
citizens first, no? I fail to see how putting the rest of the world before our
own countrymen could at all work. To many, that would be viewed as betraying
countrymen if we didn't handle it here first. I'd even posit that an America
that's contained and controlled COVID-19 is better for the world than one
that's not.

I'm _not_ saying we shouldn't help the rest of the world. That's the very next
thing. I'm saying, let's make sure we're not drowning before trying to help
others not drown.

This is a really weird line of reasoning because I don't think it even holds
in the case of a broader unity.

~~~
captain_crabs
I'll drop into this more, because we might not be connecting on what layers
we're talking about. I'm talking about immediate medical survival. If by
"resources" you're talking about financial/economic support, then I could very
much agree with an "everyone right away" approach.

I see the immediate health layer as subject to physical limitation, the
economic layer subject to informational limitation. If by resources you mean
money, then yes, I very much agree.

------
m_ke
This wouldn't be such an economic disaster if the government had their shit
together and acted fast. All they had to do:

1\. Freeze mortgages, rents and interest for 90 days.

2\. Send everyone checks for around $2,000 a month, let people choose to cash
them if they need to, correct for it on 2021 tax returns based on your income.

Avoid having small businesses shut down and lay everyone off, call it a
vacation and give people homework for the next 2-3 months while we focus on
fighting this pandemic.

~~~
wegs
This would cause hyperinflation and a massive redistribution of wealth.
Coastal people can't live on $2000. Airlines still go under.

Plan B:
[https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YbtJGn7ida2IYNgwCFk3Sjhs...](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YbtJGn7ida2IYNgwCFk3SjhsZ0ztpG5bMzA3WNbVNhU/edit)

------
s3cur3
I have to think that as a society, we’re going to be introducing a lot of
slack that never existed before. Consider commercial real estate: there are
going to be loads of small businesses that can’t make rent in the next 3
months... but from a landlord’s perspective, it probably doesn’t make sense to
terminate the lease (or hound the business into bankruptcy or something),
because who the hell else are they going to get to rent the place?

~~~
Rapzid
If more banks follow suite with deferring mortgage/loan payments... All the
stops are being pulled. If the governments can get their shit together over
the next 2-3 months we could actually hit play after this pause and have a
real shot at rebounding.

Other countries, and developing countries, may.. Will not be so lucky.

------
forkexec
I was just talking to my mechanic by text at middlefield & n shoreline at the
Arco on the southwest corner, just across 101 from the Googleplex. He may have
to permanently close his business and get a regular job because his landlord
will demand rent when there are no customers.

A similar situation is happening to Louis Rossmann who doesn't have business
interruption insurance because they require flood insurance and weasel out of
covering disasters.

Another situation is Michael Moore's nonprofit movie theaters won't be
reimbursed to pay or govt pay their employees' salaries, and building
lease/rent.

Also, tip-based workers are screwed too.

Only 20% of workers are getting some money, with a little promise of temporary
UBI to some people.

And then the government has the gall to offer interest-bearing loans instead
of no interest loans and grants? WTF!

The situation is there will be people working to put food on the table sick or
not, and riots if people aren't made whole. The US economy will crash and burn
for decades if this isn't handled correctly by clawing back some of the tens
of trillions the MIC, corporations, and the rich stole from the little guys
and regular folks.

~~~
anigbrowl
Residential landlords are looking at a rent freeze until June:
[https://caanet.org/caa-unveils-safe-at-home-guidelines-in-
re...](https://caanet.org/caa-unveils-safe-at-home-guidelines-in-response-to-
covid-19/)

Commercial landlords are likely thinking about it. the solution is to figure
out who else rents from the same landlord/other small businesses in proximity,
team up in solidarity and demand a rent freeze. The alternative is owning
capital in either a ghost town or Bartertown
([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mad_Max_Beyond_Thunderdome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mad_Max_Beyond_Thunderdome)).

For the skeptical, think back to the Occupy movement of around 2011, which
mostly took over public space. With so much private space sitting empty, the
outcome would be very very different this time.

~~~
zaroth
“Freeze rent” as in not increasing the monthly payment?

Waive late fees as in, expect to be paid for all months back rent in the first
place?

Gosh, that’s cute. Small businesses forced to shut down aren’t going to be
gritting their teeth and paying back rent when the government decides they’re
allowed to re-open.

I would guess most businesses forced to close at least 6 weeks will be write-
offs. Walk away from the debt and start again if you can / dare. Unless
someone else (govt) is picking up the tab.

------
jriley
The SBA statistics are sobering. 46 days for application, 24% approval per
slides. In my experience, asking for $50k was harder than $350k and a large
distraction. Vendor financing and credit cards filled the gaps.

IME if you needed capital, you weren’t approved for capital. If you were cash
flow positive with solid income and 2 years of operating history and tax
returns, you could put up collateral and refinance at a lower rate.

Over ~5 years I was denied ~5 times, discouraged from applying ~3 times. I was
approved once after several years of track record with a co-signer pledging a
property with 100% collateral.

That small business (exited 2019) would have really struggled to survive right
now. It would also be a difficult time to ask friends, family or spouse to
help.

I wish I had a better policy suggestion to offer; it's a hard problem. Good
luck to all small businesses out there, I’m pulling for you.

~~~
LeoTinnitus
I worked with commercial loans and SBA stuff is difficult to get simply
because it's hedged on risk. If you need an SBA loan to expand being a
landlord and you have a year experience, yeah you might get it. If you just
bought a new business and you have no experience with it, you may get denied.

They look for essentially a business plan that has been thoroughly thought
out. It sucked for us because we had to report EVERY DAY someone missed their
payment until it was paid. The SBA gives a decent rate for what it risks, but
they are an unmovable force. You cannot explain to the the situation or what.
Follow the terms to a t or get yanked.

------
devit
The problem is that businesses have been setup in such a way that they can't
just stop spending money when they aren't earning any money.

But this can mostly be fixed by law, with a law that retroactively changes all
rent, leasing, mortgage, employment contracts and in general any contract that
involves periodic or future payments to be stopped at will, subject to no
longer enjoying the service or product.

Then they can just stop paying rent and paying employees and cancel all supply
deliveries, since they no longer need those, and they will not lose any money.

Then add a temporary UBI and a ban on actually evicting from rented spaces
(since the economy is shut down, and thus there would be no other tenants) so
that people can still have a home and food.

------
marvin
There is a risk that the response to this epidemic will tear some parts of
American society apart. Some of the rhetoric in this thread is both
representative and frightening in that regard.

People of low means do not like getting told that they must go back to work
and accept the risk of losing their parents and getting permanent lung injury.
They will also not like getting told to stay at home and default on their rent
and mortgage.

People in a situation like that can take desperate measures, especially when
there’s many millions of them.

You guys really need to step up the political measures to take care of these
folks. Emergency bailout style. The time has never been more ripe to test out
basic income.

------
tinyhouse
Regarding restaurants. I live in Massachusetts where sit in is not allowed as
of last week. I'm sure many restaurants are hit hard. But I also see many
cafes and restaurants that adjusted quickly to take out and delivery and seem
pretty busy. Some adjusted their menus and selling soup in bulk etc. Bars got
hit harder.

Many sport studios quickly moved to online classes. Not everyone can of
course. The climbing gym near my house is closed and who knows if they ever
reopen. I'm not saying that we're not in a middle of a small businesses
catastrophe, just that many small businesses find ways to survive. But obv
they won't be able to for too long.

------
antaviana
I wonder if the strict lockdown measures that are needed to try to contain the
covid-19 virus perhaps will not be enough to contain the covid-19 virus, but
as a side effect will extinguish all other virures with lower Rs transmitted
among humans, such as the flu, etc.

That is, that after 3 months of strict lockdown and 9 months of pervasive
social distancing, the only virus you will be able to catch is the covid-19
virus, until new viruses coming from animals appear.

------
segmondy
Just a money grab by a special interest group - folks in the payment industry.
Everyone is trying to figure out how to get their fingers on the $1 trillion
that the Fed is handing out. This is saying, the SBA can't give out the money
fast! Trust us acquirers/processors to do so! Give us the money and
responsibility instead!

------
ccktlmazeltov
Here are the issues from my paper napkin analysis:

* large businesses not being able to pay for maintenance of tools.

* small businesses not being able to pay employees, rent, services, etc.

* people not being able to pay for rent and food.

What are possible solutions for a long-term lockdown?

* for large businesses: bail out.

* for small businesses: rent should be free.

* for people: rent should be free, food should be distributed like in times of war.

~~~
ip26
I am not sure you're going to successfully nationalize all commercial
property, but temporarily freezing interest on debt & suspending payments is
interesting to ponder. For example, most mortgages are held by the Fed, so
they have the ability to do that. Similarly for t-bills. I'm sure a real
economist can tell me why it wouldn't work, of course. But in general, rent
must be collected because debt must be paid, so if debt were frozen then rents
actually could be deferred.

~~~
asdff
I wonder if the hit from freezing debt is less than the gain from having the
vast majority of the working economy get a de facto 2x raise. Lots of people
are rent burdened which only hurts an economy driven by consumer spending.

------
MidnightRaver
Some people feel for dying Italians, some fear going outside so much their
hands are shaking. But this really wrenches my gut : O

------
haecceity
How long do we expect shelter in place to last?

~~~
ccktlmazeltov
if we can trust the imperial college of london, the next 12-18 months will
have 2/3rd of their time in lockdown.

~~~
Gibbon1
I think that model assumes everyone goes right back to 'normal' as soon as
lockdown is lifted. China and South Korea are both using regulations and
surveillance to try to keep r0 below 1 while out of lockdown.

------
threatofrain
Sad to see museums are among the hardest hit institutions, next to gym club.

------
namelosw
It's worth to take a look at Karl Marx again. I'm not referring to any existed
entities, but the model of pure capitalism is so problematic as he pointed
out.

The usual reason against shutdown is because people have mouths to feed,
mortgages to pay. But seriously, most of the products and services people are
selling not really important or even any useful - that's why people have to
advertise them so hard - it's not as straightforward as advertising cars,
houses, and Coke. But those jobs are very important to those individual
employees because it's their only source of income if their business were shut
down, they wouldn't have roofs over their heads.

So the capital is the way to let people claim their part of the economy. It's
so vulnerable that it's not even doomsday yet and people start to lose their
source of income, and even without shutting down things. If we're going to
shut down non-mandatory industries, people from those industries would get
broke immediately - it's so deeply coupled so effective measures could not be
taken.

In a perfect world, less than 10% of people working, or everyone working one
day per week could feed everyone effectively. As automation goes on, the
percent could keep shrinking. As a comparison, at the end of the day of a
capitalist world, most of the "meaningful" jobs would done by very few persons
because of the automation, and the rest of the world can only earn money at
their mercy by doing "barely meaningful" jobs. Other than that, those who
can't even get "barely meaningful" jobs have to working hard on futuristic
versions of TikTok trying to become superstars - it's their only way of
claiming their part of the economy.

Furthermore, the well-connected people get tested first as Trump suggested (or
naturally happens in the US) is also a capitalist way of doing things. If we
take Asian countries as an example, the testing kit is soon promoted as
strategic resource mostly instructed by the government, which should
eventually come from health care institutions, they have ideas to allocate
those test kits in order to make maximum use of it, instead of blindly testing
people back and forth.

If Karl Marx is not for you, it's always worth taking a look at Singapore
where they did most things correctly most of the time. It's perfectly balanced
in economics, politics and many, many other aspects (Though usually bashed by
Western media as an authoritarian country). People can afford to buy houses,
education is excellent and at a reasonable price, eating outside is cheap and
easy, health care is affordable, and people are relatively free. Everything is
carefully planned and designed by the government.

As a comparison, at a first glance, Hong Kong seems to be similar to Singapore
to those people who haven't been there, but Hong Kong is a more western-style
democratic society compared to its neighbors (at before 97 if you protest).
But the rent is out of control, things are messier, there's no specific plan
for things.

Again, I'm not evangelizing communism but those problems Karl pointed out have
been overlooked largely nowadays.

------
Fjolsvith
In 6 days, Chloroquine combined with Z-Paks will have nipped this pandemic in
the bud.

~~~
joe_the_user
Yeah, this sort of bogus claim can do real damage.

------
danieltillett
It is time to declare war. We need to move to a war economy and get on with
what needs to be done.

~~~
maxerickson
What does that even mean?

~~~
danieltillett
Congress declares war. Think WWII.

Edit. Thanks to the wonders of HC I can’t reply to you so I have edited this
post. The declaration of war is symbolic in one way, but it captures what
needs to be done. The entire economy needs to be swung around to getting this
pandemic under control as quickly as possible.

Once war is declared we can start conscripting people to do the things that
need to be done like enforce curfews, do door to door testing, build
hospitals, keep people fed, etc, etc.

We are going to end up at this point anyway, so we might as well do it now and
save lives and the economy.

~~~
ccktlmazeltov
BTW France declared war officially.

------
dijit
The slides by themselves do not speak a compelling narrative to me, so I think
I’m missing something fundamental or not understanding.

Small businesses (all, businesses) will suffer quite badly, but if your
company cannot continue operating because its shut/slowed down for 2 weeks
then it’s likely that your business was running on a knifes edge and /any/
shock would have killed it.

Arguing that many people have done this is not just cause to bail them out
(speaking from a purely logical non-empathetic position)

EDIT: ok. Our entire economy is built with no buffers in place and people here
seem to have no issue with that. From a personal finance perspective I ensure
that I live beneath my means and have capacity for a couple of months lost
revenue. (Shit happens) and I’m not “well paid”.

~~~
marta_morena_23
" then it’s likely that your business was running on a knifes edge and /any/
shock would have killed it."

Welcome to... life? This is how America or even the world works. Most people
live on knife's edge. One missed paycheck? Homelessness just got its greasy
hands on you. Two missed paychecks? Go pack what you have left... Most
business are not any different, especially those run by regular people.

In my family we have a quite successful business in the sense that the person
running it, has quite a fancy lifestyle and can afford it. But you have to
realize that most business have terrible margins. Our family business has
maybe a margin of 10%. That means, for every 10.000$ you take home before
taxes every month, your business has running expenses of about 100.000$ per
month. Now restaurants are all closed... Nobody will buy your stuff anymore,
but your employess still need to get paid. So now you have those 100.000$
monthly costs and not a single dime coming in... There is no reasonable
expectation to save this much buffer.

In short, even business that run extremely well, will die within A MONTH, if
all expenses continue and no income is generated. This is why I think what
they are doing for this petty virus is quite insane. They are destroying the
middle class for some "theoretical" projection that might not even play out
the way they think. What is guaranteed though is that businesses will die in
troves and the economy and middle class with it.

~~~
logicchains
>They are destroying the middle class for some "theoretical" projection that
might not even play out the way they think. What is guaranteed though is that
businesses will die in troves and the economy and middle class with it.

Look at the age of the people making the decisions. If you were 60+,
unhealthy, and had the option of minimising your own risk of catching the
disease by stopping the economy, you sure you wouldn't take it, regardless of
the long term damage it would do to the country?

~~~
Rapzid
The greatest outcome differentiator we have control over right now is whether
or not a person can get adequate care or not. It seems like that can make a
difference in the realm of points; big boy points.

Our top political leadership would not be left wanting for medical care if
they needed it. Pelosi and McConnell are both in for keeping congress together
in DC vs running and hiding at home. "Going down with the ship" so to speak.

Top marks for your cynicism. Low marks for the focus of it.

~~~
logicchains
Even with top care, the fatality rate is still over 10% for someone 80+.
Compared to 0% if they aren't exposed to the virus.

>Pelosi and McConnell are both in for keeping congress together in DC vs
running and hiding at home. "Going down with the ship" so to speak.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't all the lockdown decisions so far been
made by state governors, not the federal government?

------
DoreenMichele
I can't access the article at the moment. I tried. I'm on my phone. It didn't
open for me.

I'm not sure I care.

The world is suddenly embracing a lot of practices I've pursued for years
because of my medical condition. I've spent a lot of years trying to develop
alternate mental models and an alternate lifestyle to avoid germs so I can
stay off all the drugs doctors think I should take.

I run r/GigWorks and r/ClothingStartups. Neither has much traction.

I have long wanted to actively foster the development of small independent
business. The founding fathers of the US believed small business and
entrepreneurship was critical to a healthy democracy. You can't speak your
mind or vote your heart if you have to live in terror of being fired for it
and unable to get a new job.

I can run my big fat mouth as much as I do in part because I work for an
online writing service. If everyone absolutely hated me on every forum and in
the small town where I live, I can keep earning an income anonymously online
through the writing service.

I am only one person. I've long been a _loser_ and _social outcast_. As such,
I've been failing to get traction.

But you are all invited to check out GigWorks and ClothingStartups and try to
be part of the solution.

The old guard never goes quietly. They go kicking and screaming. Things
usually don't really change until a bunch of people die.

We've been here before. We survived as a species.

I think the most important question right now is "What kind of future would
you like to see rise from the ashes?"

Answer that question and then actually do it. Don't just leave it as a mental
exercise.

For me, that means continuing to try to find ways to foster small and micro
business success via the Internet to give stability to a top heavy economy
that is sucking the air out of the room politically for reasons foreseen by
our founding fathers.

------
iamleppert
I’m honestly looking forward to a new economy served by large corporations.
Large companies are more consistent in their user experience across multiple
locations, and are better buyers of tech. They are always looking for new ways
to automate their operations and frequently turn to tech companies to solve
their problems at scale.

So in a way, it’s good for the valley if more of the economy becomes more
corporate.

~~~
chance_state
/s ?

~~~
mywittyname
Doubtful.

People often romanticize the "mom & pop" places, but there's a reason that
most consumer-facing companies are very large, and those reasons were
enumerated by the OP.

Also, there's a good deal of selection bias going on. If you had a successful
business, why wouldn't you look to expand it to multiple locations? Running a
single store makes your business vulnerable and usually requires a lot of
time.

~~~
miketery
While there are advantages to having large / homogeneous / monolithic /
centralized entities.

There are also weaknesses in the face of some threat because there is no
diversity to survive it.

~~~
iamleppert
I’m not sure I agree with the diversity argument. That argument is based on
the biological principle of natural selection. However, an economy isn’t a
biological system: its a man-made system that is designed and run by an
intelligence, actually many intelligent agents working together.

Biology is not designed or run by any intelligent agent that we know of. When
people apply the diversity argument to non-biological systems, it makes me
think they are actually and _really_ arguing for intelligent design of
biology.

~~~
miketery
My argument is a nature centric one, indifferent of biology. Biology is nature
through carbon based life forms.

My argument still holds, if you over centralize or lack diversity (not in the
social science race or sex based sense) then you’ll run into issues. Examples
include Russian central governance, as opposed to more independent localized
governance and sustainability. Another is non diverse economic production, for
example many middle eastern countries.

