
California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration - prostoalex
http://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/265?platform=hootsuite
======
pascalxus
The middle class can no longer afford to remain in CA. A combination of
egregious housing policies and other anti-bussines/anti-people regulations
stifle the economic well being of it's inhabitants. It's sad to see people
having to leave behind their friends and families, for all this. Not only are
people leaving, but the birth rate for millineials in CA hasn't been this low
since the great depression: [http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-ln-
birth-rate-...](http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-ln-birth-
rate-20161220-story.html)

~~~
krausejj
a solution is on the table— sb-827. please research it. californians (and i am
one too) need to stop complaining and start fixing things. this bill fixes
things. it needs our attention and support.

UPDATE: sb-827 prevents local governments in california from banning density
near public transit. it represents the most radical housing bill in recent
california history, because it rebalances control from hyperlocal
municipalities to the state level. it could unlock 3m housing units in a state
building <100k a year. that's 30 years of pent-up supply, and it could
actually affect market prices.

~~~
vondur
Here in Southern California, we are running out of room for housing. You can
basically drive all the way from San Diego to Santa Barbara, or from the coast
to about a 100 miles inland and it's all city. Unless you are going to tear
down existing housing and rebuild with more high density housing which is just
cost prohibitive. I figure at some point availability of water will become the
limiting factor.

~~~
nopinsight
Since agriculture uses the bulk of water, it is a matter of allocation and
proper pricing.

California’s is a knowledge-based economy—Agriculture contributes but a small
percentage to it (about 2%). Why should we restrict the number of productive
people who can live in the state in favor of crops?

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_California](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_California)

~~~
DougN7
There is the small issue of those productive people needing to eat...

~~~
nopinsight
California exports a lot of food, including to other countries. It does not
need to have excess food supply given its economic structure.

~~~
DougN7
California exporting a lot of food is a great thing. How about instead of
destroying a major source of food, people simply move away from California?

~~~
nopinsight
The world has an excessive amount of food production capacity. That is why all
the subsidies many governments give to prop up their farmers.

I thought a key American ideal is freedom. Why would you want to restrict
people’s freedom and only give the privilege only to the few who just happen
to be born early enough to get property there? (Even some California native
sons and daughters cannot afford to buy a home in their own home city.)

By the way, flippant answers are not appreciated. Consider reading more about
the topics before giving thoughtful answers?

------
krausejj
this is related to an article i just submitted:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16478780](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16478780)

it costs too much to live here because of zoning. zoning is largely driven by
local governments, dominated by homeowners who benefit when prices rise.

but california might fix it with sb-827, which would prevent local governments
from banning density near transit hubs. california builds <100k units per
year. McKinsey did a deep dive that shows that sb-827 could unlock 3 million
units—this would be transformational.

[https://standupcalifornia.com](https://standupcalifornia.com) (this is my
site supporting sb-827)

 _please, if you care about california, learn about these issues and support
sb-827!!!_

~~~
davidw
It'd _help_ fix it, but California's dug itself into such a deep hole that
it'll take a while to fix it even with good measures like that one.

The statistic that always amazes me is how Tokyo built more housing than the
_entire state_ of California in 2014.

[https://www.vox.com/2016/8/8/12390048/san-francisco-
housing-...](https://www.vox.com/2016/8/8/12390048/san-francisco-housing-
costs-tokyo)

If you (as in the generic you, not the comment I'm responding to) live in CA,
and care about this stuff, you should get involved with the YIMBY folks there.
They're doing great work, and achieving real results.

~~~
adrianratnapala
Tokyo is huge though, it's population is about 1/3 that of the whole of
California. So we are talking about a ratio of only 3+ in housing built per
capita. Significant for sure, but hardly bizzare.

~~~
krausejj
i got so deep here, i went and looked at US Census Building Permit data for
MSAs:
[https://standupcalifornia.com/peers](https://standupcalifornia.com/peers)

This is all primary research. The most shocking piece was that cities like
Sacramento are permitting half as much housing per capita as peer cities like
Seattle. Land is not the issue—this is a policy failure.

But, we can fix it :)

------
stevenwoo
This chart of U-Haul prices in/out of San Jose (in one form or another) made
the news recently. [http://www.aei.org/publication/san-francisco-bay-area-
experi...](http://www.aei.org/publication/san-francisco-bay-area-experiences-
mass-exodus-of-residents-reflected-in-one-way-u-haul-truck-rental-rates/)

~~~
hirundo
I vacated California for New Mexico 14 years ago (No regrets). The price of a
U-Haul was so high that I was able to buy a used, good condition 12 foot cargo
trailer for about 20% more than the price of a same sized rental. I still have
it and use it as a big storage locker. When prices get that lopsided it's time
to go shopping.

------
Casseres
Native Texan here. I and many other Texans I know welcome newcomers with open
arms.

We all just have one message though: Please do not turn Texas into the places
y'all are leaving. There's a reason y'all are leaving after all.

EDIT: Newcomers: We generally don't care what anyone does or thinks, we only
care when people try to force us to conform to their beliefs, including what
to do with our money, eg) raising taxes.

Wow, the back-and-forth on upvotes/downvotes is crazy. Sorry, didn't mean for
this to be controverisal.

~~~
dnomad
I suspect Texas will wish it had California's problems in a decade. California
is experiencing a brain gain [1] as the best and the brightest relocate to the
state en mass. Texas is meanwhile experiencing a brain drain by experting
college educated and college-seeking citizens en masse. A quick look at
industries in decline (oil, coal, meat) and industries on the rise
(automotive, tech, healthcare) does not suggest that Texas is the place to be
or that these people leaving for Texas are doing so voluntarily.

[1] [http://www.ppic.org/blog/californias-brain-
gain/](http://www.ppic.org/blog/californias-brain-gain/)

~~~
DamnYuppie
Texas is growing, lots of large companies leaving other states to move there.
So to say their is a large brain drain is disingenuous. All of those companies
you listed as "on the rise" are relocating to Texas, a few examples: State
Farm, Toyota, and soon Amazon HQ2(Amazon hates taxes). This is a small
sampling, there are many more companies moving to Texas all the time.

------
supercanuck
>Families with kids and those with only a high school education predominate
among those moving from California to its top destination states (Texas,
Arizona, and Nevada). College-educated 18 to 35 year olds led the way among
those moving to California from its top feeder states (New York, Illinois, and
New Jersey).

~~~
mullen
I am loving that. Take all the people who don't have college educations and
send them off to Texas, California can take the educated.

------
djrogers
Interesting data, but:

 _" The graph below shows data from the Internal Revenue Service on the
movement of income tax filers in and out of California since 1990. (Data on
tax filers does not cover the entire population because some people do not
earn enough income to necessitate filing taxes.)"_

It also doesn't cover populations who don't _pay_ taxes, and who get paid
under the table.

~~~
dragonwriter
The _graph_ introduced with that paragraph comes from IRS data, the total
population estimate (and the other material that is not that graph) is derived
from the American Community Survey (which is not restricted to tax filers.)

------
all_blue_chucks
California is also losing residents by discouraging migration via high taxes.
For example, I had two job offers: one in California and one in Washington.
Since this was a $200k+ job, that income tax in CA would have cost me $40
grand per year. Suffice it to say I now live in Washington.

~~~
sureshv
CA State income tax on $200k is around $15k - not sure where the other $25k
went unless you mean cost of living.

------
gumby
Its funny that people fixate on tax when discussing this issue yet if you look
at the numbers its high earners who move _into_ the state.

------
anthonyleecook
It's no wonder that high-earning individuals are moving into California. A few
numbers I ran across on the web:

\- Bay Area economy is growing 3X (!!!) faster than average in US.

\- Santa Clara region has an income average of $98,000, top 5 amonst the
nation

\- Average salary for Software Engineers for San Francisco is $210,000

This of course doesn't bode well for mid to lower income citizens, who now
have to move out as far as antioch or stockton to afford a home. Bad for a
family of 4, still doable for singles that can room with roommates near work.
We really do need to have more housing in regions that are underdeveloped and
soon will be served by the BART extension, google's building foray in downtown
san jose, buildout in the caltrain stops between Redwood City and South San
Francisco, etc.

~~~
derwiki
> \- Average salary for Software Engineers for San Francisco is $210,000

Curious where you got that? I looked at the Hired salary info yesterday, and
it was far shy of that.

~~~
anthonyleecook
I saw it here: [https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-average-starting-salary-
fo...](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-average-starting-salary-for-a-
software-engineer-with-a-BS-degree-in-San-Francisco-Bay-Area)

On second thought, this might not be accurate as there's no direct references.

Indeed says senior software engineers is around $187,000
[https://www.indeed.com/salaries/Computer+Programmer-
Salaries...](https://www.indeed.com/salaries/Computer+Programmer-
Salaries,-San+Francisco+Bay+Area%2C+CA)

------
higginsc
I appreciate the effort that went into making this, but I get really annoyed
with analyses like this that show heatmaps comparing highly heterogeneous
groups (in this case, states, income groups, age groups, and education groups)
that use an absolute scale. Of course absolute migration looks extreme in NY
and Texas compared to, say Missouri or Iowa. This would be a much more
interesting story if they used a lift metric that controlled for state/group
size and/or state/group migration volume.

------
joelrunyon
San Diego is bleeding people to Austin.

I wish San Diego would just make it's own state, adopt Texas' taxes and it'd
be hands-down the best place to be in the US.

~~~
cycrutchfield
You want 2% property taxes at San Diego property values? Without Prop 13?

~~~
sk5t
Is there a place where owners of $1MM properties expect to pay less than $20K
in property tax?

~~~
air_ml
San Diego? If you bought you house 20 years ago and it is worth $1M now, you
probably pay $2k to $3k in taxes.

~~~
mullen
I don't think this is true. My parents own a house near a $1M and they much
more than $3K an year in taxes.

~~~
air_ml
Depends on how long they owned they house. For example:
[https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/2443-Curlew-
St-92101/hom...](https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/2443-Curlew-
St-92101/home/5748778#public-records)

------
meddlepal
I'm sure there is a $$$ number that would convince me to move to California,
but I'm not sure there are many companies willing to pay it and I would be
super worried the entire time I was there about possible unemployment.

I feel like there is going to be a blood bath in the Bay Area if we're
actually in a bubble and it bursts. The next five to ten years should be an
interesting ride.

~~~
drdeadringer
Let's say we're in a bubble and it bursts. How would it be different from The
Great Recession?

~~~
AnimalMuppet
From a near-miss in my own life: A bubble that bursts may look a lot like The
Great Recession. A bubble that bursts just after you move to a new city, where
you don't have any professional track record? That's worse. A bubble that
bursts harder in the new city than in the one you came from? I'd think _hard_
before I signed up for that...

------
logfromblammo
A cursory read of the graphics indicates that people with graduate degrees and
higher-paying jobs are forcing the people with less money and less education
out, and they are moving to states with lower costs of living.

~~~
kenhwang
I'm not convinced this is a bad thing. What's wrong with having a higher
educated, higher income populace?

~~~
dnomad
Yeah the people who think this is a bad thing are pretty confused. The real
story here is that everybody in California is becoming very highly educated
[1]. California is experiencing a remarkable _brain gain_ as the best and the
brighest _in the world_ relocate to the state. This may drive out lesser
educated Americans but the idea that this is a disaster or a bad thing is
mistaken. California's future is very bright (even if too much value gets
captured by real estate speculators.)

[1] [http://www.ppic.org/blog/californias-brain-
gain/](http://www.ppic.org/blog/californias-brain-gain/)

~~~
adamrezich
A bad thing for whom? California or its (former) citizens?

~~~
kenhwang
Either? Former citizens presumably get an increase in quality of life in a
lower cost of living area, and California has a richer (newly imported) middle
class.

The ones that have it hard are the ones who can't afford to stay and
can't/won't leave.

------
randyrand
Democratic states moving into California and Californians mostly leaving for
conservative states. Interesting.

There are multiple ways to interpret though.

~~~
pcwalton
The data's pretty mixed on that. For outflow states:

Texas (#1): Solid R

Arizona (#2): R

Nevada (#3): Lean D

Oregon, Washington (#4, #5): Solid D

Colorado (#6): D

Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma (#7, #8, #9): Solid R

Georgia (#10): R

That's 6 R, 4 D.

~~~
DoubleCribble
Oregon is interesting in that it's D because of Portland. The state is mostly
conservative small cities or rural and yet the population of the Portland
metro area leans so far left and has such a large population relative to the
other parts of the state that it changes the entire state. Remove Portland
voters from the polls and Oregon would be R.[0]

[0][http://pamplinmedia.com/pt/9-news/212726-70134-how-
liberal-i...](http://pamplinmedia.com/pt/9-news/212726-70134-how-liberal-is-
portland)

~~~
pcwalton
You could say the same thing about lots of blue states.

~~~
DoubleCribble
Any examples? I don't know of any other state that has 1 city with such an
impact on the entire state as to turn it blue.

------
vasilipupkin
It's also noteworthy that a lot of people from Illinois are moving to
California even though California income taxes are higher. It seems to me that
the California outmigration is mostly from economically depressed parts of
California, not from LA or Bay Area.

------
cody3222
It would be really interesting to see the difference in trends between the Bay
Area, LA, and the more rural areas. Seems the housing price issue is much more
of a problem in the Bay Area.

~~~
chipotle_coyote
According to Trulia's market trend reports, both LA and Sacramento's median
housing prices have increased faster in the last five years than San Jose's:
LA went from $400K to $779K, a 94% increase, while Sacramento went from $143K
to $305K, a 113% increase. San Jose went from $490K to $865K, a "mere" 77%
increase. Stockton also more than doubled in the same period.

Obviously one could argue San Jose was already overpriced, but in terms of
_trends,_ California's housing prices are kind of on fire -- you don't have to
be in the SF Bay area for costs to be rising much faster than the national
trend. (Which is still higher than I would have guessed: the median price over
that five-year period across the entire country rose from $154K to $205K.)

------
DoctorBit
Interesting that three of the top five destination states (Texas, Nevada and
Washington) have no state income tax.

------
marcell
Doesn't the chart in TFA directly directly contradict the point of TFA?

From TFA:
[http://lao.ca.gov/Blog/Media/Image/957](http://lao.ca.gov/Blog/Media/Image/957)

Net out migration is at a fairly low level compared to other times since 1990.

~~~
dragonwriter
> Doesn't the chart in TFA directly directly contradict the point of TFA?

No.

Though it might contradict an incorrect inference about the point, which is
not “this effect is getting worse” but “this effect exists, and here is a
detailed breakdown”.

------
rootw0rm
Texas and Oregon are starting to look pretty nice. Too bad about the cannabis
laws in Texas, though. As soon as I persuade the court to terminate my
probation I'll consider selling a few properties and getting out of here, too.

~~~
irrational
Oregon sucks. Don't move here, I mean there. But, Texas is very nice.

~~~
Casseres
Texan here. We welcome y'all with open arms, just please don't turn Texas into
the places that you left.

~~~
tachyoff
That depends on how you figure. Do you mean socially? Legally? Business-wise?
There are a lot of complex forces at play to make Silicon Valley the way it is
(including history). I don’t think it’s fair to tell any group not to “make”
some city like their previous one. Furthermore, one nice thing about the
American melting pot is everyone gets a voice. If enough people move to Texas
and change its culture, that’s just something you have to deal with (or move,
I suppose).

~~~
danaliv
_> If enough people move to Texas and change its culture, that’s just
something you have to deal with (or move, I suppose)_

We have learned nothing.

~~~
tachyoff
It’s unfair and unrealistic to expect everyone to assimilate, if for no other
reason than people bring the entirety of their experiences with them wherever
they go. There will always a bit of a Californian in transplants to Texas,
just like there will always be a bit of a Texan in transplants to Pennsylvania
or Florida or Germany or wherever. I think this adds to the richness of life,
but I suppose not everyone feels that way.

------
Dowwie
Portland Uber drivers complained about this phenomenon when I visited a while
ago. Bay area transplants were buying into Portland through new high rise
developments that locals detest.

~~~
taborj
This has been the attitude for years in Oregon. It's not just in the cities
through new high rise developments; in the rural areas, they buy out the
properties for cash -- generally above asking price -- which jacks up the
prices out of reach for the locals.

Frankly, it happens everywhere that the cost of living is lower.

------
walrus01
Seattle is full and the weather is dreadful. It rains 364 days a year and the
other day of the year is full of smoke from forest fires. Please consider
Portland instead.

~~~
politician
Seattle has plenty of room, and the weather is beautiful during the spring and
summer. We had one smoky period last year due to a freak fire in BC. It's a
great place to raise a family, and make a killing in tech.

 _(I 'm not currently selling real estate.)_

~~~
walrus01
Seattle is a hell on earth of rain, Amazon, heroin addicts and smoked salmon.
Be quiet or the californians will hear you!

~~~
chrisseaton
Some people quite like a rainy climate, and Amazon creates a whole tech scene
of its own around it.

~~~
walrus01
I'm guessing sarcasm doesn't translate well into text. Should have added more
hyperbole.

------
daxfohl
Like brexit and the over 70 crowd, how many Californians are voting for laws
that they will not be around to see the results of?

------
dragonwriter
Far less than it was between 1990-2006, as the source notes; the geographic
and income distribution is interesting.

------
wetpaws
Unfortunate reality of CA is that or every resident that's moving out there
are two people going to take their place.

~~~
dragonwriter
> Unfortunate reality of CA is that or every resident that's moving out there
> are two people going to take their place.

Actually, for every 6 moving out, 5 are going to take their place, per the
article. But I suspect that a lot of the out migration isn't from the urban
economic powerhouses and most of the in migration goes to them, so that for
_urban_ California, your statement may be closer to true, though exaggerated.

~~~
tomkarlo
The article seems to ignore a big group: California nets about 100K or more
immigrants from outside the US each year, which would cover the gap in recent
year.

[http://www.ppic.org/publication/immigrants-in-
california/](http://www.ppic.org/publication/immigrants-in-california/)

~~~
dragonwriter
> The article seems to ignore a big group: California nets about 100K or more
> immigrants from outside the US each year, which would cover the gap in
> recent year.

Yes, the article specifically about _internal_ migration doesn't address
_external_ migration.

> California nets about 100K or more immigrants from outside the US each year,
> which would cover the gap in recent year.

Sure, but it doesn't change it from near balance to anything but even nearer
balance; it's nothing like 2 in for 1 out on a statewide basis.

~~~
tomkarlo
The article's clear, but the headline is misleading, since it's not actually
true that "California is losing residents" as an broad statement - it's more
narrowly true that CA is seeing more people move to other US states than from
other states, but I guess that's less compelling as a headline.

California's population has grown every year since at least 1960, but the
headline and article would make you think otherwise.

