
As Argentine Peso Falters, President Keeps a Low Profile - wslh
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/01/world/americas/as-argentine-economic-crisis-swirls-president-keeps-low-profile.html
======
CapitalistCartr
I love Argentina, the people, the cities, the mountains, the food. But the
government is absurd; petty corruption is endemic, the politicians are
expected to behave like Roman leaders taking care of "their" people. Until
popular expectations change, the government will continue to tank the economy.

~~~
slurry
Argentine government is especially bizarre because the party system has
historially not made any damn sense at all.

People used to give US politics flack for having clear cut left and right
parties.

But the Argentine party system has typically been liberals (UCR and allies)
vs. nationalists (Peronists and allies), with each having left and right
factions, but also factions based on personalities, and on support/opposition
to whatever the most recent dictatorship happened to be.

So, if you met an Argentine and find out only that he is a member of, say, the
UCR that gives you as about as useful information as finding out someone was a
Democrat in 1955, when that might have meant anything from a John Birch
society segregationist to a left social democrat.

That's a big opportunity for corruption, in both the Argentine and historic US
cases.

Things have gotten a little more 'normal' since the Kirchers have been so
polarizing and the old parties have broken down some. But it's still in my
opinion a source of great inefficiency not to have a well-established left-
right party system.

~~~
ronaldx
I find it bizarre that you think a left-right two-party system is good.

People should have the right to vote for whatever they value, and should have
the right for that vote to count (via representation of those values). A two-
party system suppresses those rights. It's 'efficient' if you happen to agree
with one of the two parties - but, it is not fit for purpose if you think the
point of democracy is to represent the people in political decision-making.

A political system which implies that there are only two valid points of view
(or one valid axis) is the poorer for it.

~~~
tptacek
It might not be good in the sense of maximizing the value of the franchise,
but it might be better along other axes, such as creating long-term coherent
policy objectives. It can take a long time to change things in the US, which
is sometimes bad, but also sometimes good.

~~~
ronaldx
Appreciate your point, but I don't think it's obvious that two-parties are
better at creating long-term policy, just as I don't think it's obvious that a
two party system is better on other axes generally.

For example, if neither party has a strong interest, certain government
departments can act without proper accountability to the public.

Clearly the US has been a successful country, but there are several problems
with using the US as an ideal model: the benefits of this success are not
necessarily distributed in the best way. And, with the US's huge resources,
it's not obvious that the choice of political system is the biggest factor in
its success.

~~~
jessedhillon
It's not obvious to me that multi-member district schemes and coalition
governments have produced anything significantly different than what we have.
I mean, if you think _we_ (the US) have a severely polarized party alignment,
I'm just not sure you're paying attention.

Within the same party you can have representatives who are both for and
against nearly every important issue! In the UK they need to form a coalition
(sometimes) to run the government, but when they have that coalition, pretty
much the only things which get voted on are those which are guaranteed to
pass. Or if you want real crazy, go look at 2003~2007 Israel, where coalitions
would need to be formed from several radically different parties.

I don't see any evidence that requisite inclusion of diverse stakeholders lead
to better outcomes for the public.

~~~
ronaldx
> I mean, if you think we (the US) have a severely polarized party alignment,

Oh! I absolutely don't think that.

The two parties in a two-party system (US; UK normally) are often poorly
distinguished, straddling two sides of a dividing line but essentially at the
same point. This is even worse for the franchise as voters don't have a real
choice at all: just the illusion of one.

------
jbellis
Argentina is in trouble, but this article is not very insightful.

A better one, out of many options:
[http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/01/world/americas/as-
argentin...](http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/01/world/americas/as-argentine-
economic-crisis-swirls-president-keeps-low-profile.html?_r=0)

Another: [http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21595471-latin-
americ...](http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21595471-latin-americas-
weakest-economies-are-reaching-breaking-point-party-over)

------
spindritf
_Joke told at a talk: there are 4 kinds of economies: rich economies, poor
economies, Japan, and Argentina._

[https://twitter.com/daschloz/status/427917763588677632](https://twitter.com/daschloz/status/427917763588677632)

------
thisiswrong
This time round things could be very different. Remember how the Cyprus
savings confiscations in 2013 provoked a previously unseen rally on bitcoin
[1]. When Argentina's financial system implodes a significant part of the
economy could well switch to bitcoin [2]. For many in Argentina this would be
a better option than 'rebooting' yet again into fiat.

[1] [http://siliconangle.com/blog/2013/03/21/bitcoin-value-
hits-7...](http://siliconangle.com/blog/2013/03/21/bitcoin-value-hits-70-and-
keeps-climbing-cyprus-bailout-connection-speculated/)

[2]
[http://www.latinvex.com/app/article.aspx?id=1170](http://www.latinvex.com/app/article.aspx?id=1170)

~~~
coldtea
> _When Argentina 's financial system implodes a significant part of the
> economy could well switch to bitcoin [2]. For many in Argentina this would
> be a better option than 'rebooting' yet again into fiat._

Yes. It's not gonna happen. What currency to turn your money into is
irrelevant if you have the money. There have been alternatives to the official
currency for millenia.

Not to mention when it's a matter of life and death to have access to that
money, the slowness of Bitcoin exchange, as well as the volatility of the
currency, are not benefits at all. What happens when it drops 20% or 80%, as
could very well happen? It's neither established enough nor stable enough to
give any guarantees. Better turn to the us dollar or other options.

Here's how easy it is, even from TFA:

> _[Argentina] is the only place we know where you get better banking services
> out on the sidewalk than in the bank. Every time we go we take a big wad of
> green pieces of paper with Ben Franklin 's picture on them. Driving directly
> to the town square in Salta (close to the family ranch), we then simply stop
> the truck and beckon over one of the many black-market moneychangers
> standing in front of the bank._

P.S As for the "Cyprus savings confiscations in 2013 provoking a previously
unseen rally on bitcoin", that didn't happen by Cypriots. The kind of people
who buy gold (light survavivalists) decided to ramp up on it -- still an
insignificant amount, not even to the global economy but even to Cyprus'
economy.

~~~
thisiswrong
While you provide some solid arguments, I feel that you are overlooking
certain key elements. I myself feel that the likelihood of Argentina switching
to BTC after its upcoming financial collapse is quite low. However I feel that
certain niche sectors of the economy could well jump to using BTC.

The points that you overlook are: [1] The USD is currently being deflated like
never before and could potentially collapse without warning. Thus making it
increasingly unattractive to hold over long periods. [2] Argentina's online
economy has recently suffered a huge blow with taxes for online purchases
outside of the country. BTC is already becoming the international 'money of
the internet'. [3] Most importantly, Bitcoin volatility has been decreasing
over time as the price & adoption increases. This is something that shouldn't
be overlooked as it has huge implications for the pricing of goods and
services in BTC. [4] Finally, there are many ways to do fast transactions in
BTC. Have you ever tried sending BTC from one android wallet to another? It
comes through instantly. Granted that larger BTC transfers would still require
more confirmations though. Off-blockchain transaction services could also
kickoff soon. [1] [http://mises.ca/posts/blog/murdoch-tweets-about-money-
printi...](http://mises.ca/posts/blog/murdoch-tweets-about-money-printing-and-
inflation-reality-wont-be-far-behind/) [2]
[http://www.npr.org/2014/01/23/265195791/argentina-imposes-
he...](http://www.npr.org/2014/01/23/265195791/argentina-imposes-heavy-tax-on-
international-online-shopping) [3] [http://elidourado.com/blog/bitcoin-
volatility/](http://elidourado.com/blog/bitcoin-volatility/) [4]
[http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/11602/how-does-
bi...](http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/11602/how-does-bitpay-
manage-to-confirm-transactions-so-fast-less-than-a-minute)

~~~
coldtea
> _The USD is currently being deflated like never before and could potentially
> collapse without warning. Thus making it increasingly unattractive to hold
> over long periods._

That cannot happen. The USD is tied to the Yuan to the Euro to the Yen and
all. If it goes, everything goes.

In case that happens, and we're talking about a situation that could trigger
something like WW III, BTC will be perhaps the least safe place. One of the
first concerns of big governments would be to squash those alternate
currencies, and BTC just has some bits and bytes, they have the police, SWAT
teams, and international agreements.

> _Finally, there are many ways to do fast transactions in BTC. Have you ever
> tried sending BTC from one android wallet to another? It comes through
> instantly._

Yes, but I was talking more about the transaction to convert your BTC to "some
currency I can actually use for my actual buying needs".

(That you can use BTC with a "list of vendors that accept it" doesn't count. I
don't want to buy novelty items from fringe vendors experimenting with
alternative methods of payment. I want to buy a house from the realtor I want,
I want to buy food from McDonalds down the corner, I want to pay my utility
bill, etc...).

------
cromulent
This post used to link to an article on the Daily Reckoning site, but has been
changed to a completely different article on the NYT site.

Old link:

[http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/argentina-is-going-
down/201...](http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/argentina-is-going-
down/2014/01/29/)

I must say I'm uncomfortable with the idea that an post can change title and
URL to a different domain after comments have been posted.

~~~
skrebbel
The weird thing is the moderators never seem to post about their choices
themselves. They seem like anonymous shadows with unclear motives. I really
don't understand why they do what they do.

------
coldcode
It's always amazing to me that people continue to think they can cover up a
failing economy by insisting everything is fine. For hundreds of years people
have tried this. In the end it never succeeds. Money goes where it wants and
eventually it eats your lunch and your cake.

~~~
gaius
Eventually might be a long time. How long have the Kim dynasty held power in
North Korea? Or Castro in Cuba?

Britain fought a war to free Argentina from Fascist dictatorship (and, err,
get our islands back), they had a chance for a clean slate then, and they blew
it.

~~~
ezequiel-garzon
"Britain fought a war to free Argentina from Fascist dictatorship (and, err,
get our islands back)"

Your parentheses make me hope your main statement is sarcastic. For the
record, the dictatorship was already declining in popularity when it decided
to take a bold gamble against the British Empire. Sadly, human nature shows
that victory would have granted the regime additional years, if not decades,
in power.

~~~
mistakoala
'Bold' should never be used synonymously for 'stupid' or 'reckless'.

~~~
ezequiel-garzon
They are all different concepts, but not mutually exclusive. I used "bold"
since I feel the regime believed there was some positive probability of
winning that war. Although I have no respect for the regime or the war they
came up with, I feel "stupid" is the term that applies the least of all three.

------
cromulent
After all the shilling of gold and faux-economics that Bonner has written over
the years, I have a hard time believing anything he says.

~~~
slurry
I used to work for him. I agree.

------
conanbatt
A major factor here is that they were steering the ship to crash right after
they leave the office, trying to repeat the political disaster that happened
to the UCR in 2001. Unfortunately in economy, when you know/think in the
future something is going to happen, it affects the prices today.

The devaluation, denial of inflation and expenditure of reserves paint a bad
picture: they dont intend to change the direction of the ship, at least not
yet.

Of all the issues the US has with the political system, i wished we had the
strong institutional presence they have. Politics in argentina are so cultist,
and they always centralize power in a persona or figure. There's never a
discourse that says "we are going to do this, so in the future this wont be
corrupted, or this will be measured independently" etc. I havent heard that in
my entire life.

To explain the basic consequence of that to a typical american: there is no
future planning in argentina. There is no forecast that ever spans more than 2
years, and those ones venture in black magic. Everything has to be about
immediate effects because nothing is built for the long term.

------
lispsil
Bitcoins are worth 2x the current price on bitstamp in Argentina. If you want
a cheap vacation go there and trade btc for cash on localbitcoin.com

They want litecoins too

------
mistakoala
Really? She had SO much to say about other countries last year.

"Hey! Look at that thing happening over there in the distance, far away from
here!"

~~~
bobdvb
Yep, pretty soon she'll find another reason to say something nasty about the
UK, just to distract the people. Argentina's version of Bread and Circuses.

------
mmaunder
TDR has been prohesying doom weekly (and pushing gold buying) since the 90s.

------
brosco45
Why was the title censored?

------
ye
Argentinian Peso:

[http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=ARS&to=USD&view=1Y](http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=ARS&to=USD&view=1Y)

