
Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact - yarapavan
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/354/6312/aaf5239
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achow
The linked article seems to be misleading on the true purpose of the research.

The source:
[http://science.sciencemag.org/content/354/6312/aaf5239](http://science.sciencemag.org/content/354/6312/aaf5239)

From the source:

The random-impact rule allows us to develop a quantitative model, which
systematically untangles the role of productivity and luck in each scientific
career.

The model predicts that truly high-impact discoveries require a combination of
high Q and luck (p) and that increased productivity alone cannot substantially
enhance the chance of a very high impact work.

(Paraphrased) Where Q = Capability of scientist and potential impact of the
chosen problem.

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sctb
Thanks, we had updated the link from
[https://keithsawyer.wordpress.com/2016/11/22/are-you-too-
old...](https://keithsawyer.wordpress.com/2016/11/22/are-you-too-old-to-be-
brilliant/) a little while ago.

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cvarjas
PDF available from one of the authors:
[http://www.dashunwang.com/pdf/Sinatra2016-Science.pdf](http://www.dashunwang.com/pdf/Sinatra2016-Science.pdf)

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MichailP
I don't like when the idea is taken to extreme and parents force their kids to
get as far as possible as young as possible. For example young pop stars
competitions and similar. After all brilliant people don't always get the
credit they deserve during their lifetime, e.g Tesla (died alone in hotel room
talking to pigeons), Mozart (buried in unmarked grave), Lavoisier (executed in
French revolution), list goes on and on

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codeonfire
Still barely eligible for a Fields medal, although I will have to work fast.
Not eligible for moronic 20 under 20.

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biofox
20 under 20 should be countered by someone funding 50 over 50.

Disrupt the SV age bias by taking 50 experienced professionals, and giving
them the freedom and resources to do whatever they like.

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grabcocque
I was born too old to be brilliant.

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croon
TLDR; No.

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emsy
Betteridge's law of headlines

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ashryan
For those who have never heard of it:

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headli...](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines)

It's meant to be humorous, but it's surprisingly accurate for many question
headlines.

