
Trend expert says probability of a recession this year is 17% - pg
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2007/04/28/jim_hamilton_do.html
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yaacovtp
The guy at my hardware store who sold dozens of new paver driveways last year
said that business has practically shut down this year. Housing is definitely
affecting consumer spending.

The Dow always sets records before going into a recession.

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nostrademons
'Course, the Dow also sets records roughly half the time that the U.S. is
_not_ in a recession.

I do see some worrying signs - real estate for suburban Boston really is a
bloodbath for sellers, the numbers on consumer debt remind me a lot of 1929,
and some local restaurants seem to have reduced business lately. But if I had
to make a call, I'd guess that we're midcycle now, at the beginning of a large
boom.

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rms
But how long do we have until the dollar falls through the floor?

If I had some significant assets I would be starting a company in Europe so I
can afford to rebuy America once it is dirt cheap.

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herdrick
It already has. My guess is that the dollar will rise.

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rms
Why?

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pg
...which is probably only a little higher than the average year.

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ced
How do recessions affect the market for startups?

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danielha
The same way a boom affects the market for startups. But in the opposite
direction.

Seriously though: In a direct sense, the effects might not be too great for us
"Web 2.0" startups (people don't cut back on YouTube when money is tight). But
there would be less money going around, so at least indirectly it's going to
be a degree tougher to run any kind of business.

