

Why Android Could Be Headed for the Laundry Room - tfincannon
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/28/why-android-could-be-headed-for-the-laundry-room/

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pg
Interesting. That could be the way to beat the iPhone. Instead of attacking
head on, go a level down and spread sideways. Apple doesn't like their
software to run on devices they don't make. But they can't make every cool
device. So even if Apple managed to crush Android on phones, they couldn't
crush Android. And as long as Android lived, it would always be poised to
creep back onto phones. Or whatever replaces them.

~~~
brandonkm
I have to think that marketing is a key component. The iPhone has a very
particular ecosystem associated with it. The ads are the best example of this.
While Android is a great OS (I absolutely love my G1 with Android 1.5), It
will be difficult to become as pervasive as the iPhone is without marketing it
in some capacity. I know Google has only very recently done tv ads and has
traditionally used word of mouth to spread its products, but I think that
getting the word out about Android beyond word of mouth is important. As more
devices in different form factors come out with Android, I think it would be
in Googles and the OHA best interest to market what Android is all about
better. If they are unable to do that, the iPhone and other mobile platforms
will always be ahead.

~~~
SwellJoe
I think you'll be surprised at what openness can do when it is competing on a
level playing field (or close to it). In the second (16 bit) personal computer
war, the PC compatible won not because it was better, or cheaper, but because
it was more open than Apple, Atari, and Commodore machines. And, you can't get
any more open than Open Source. The fact that the OS here is _free_ for
manufacturers, and very nearly as good in every way as the iPhone OS, means
that manufacturers will do the marketing for Google. They have to market their
phones already...Samsung tried to convince us that the Instinct was as awesome
as an iPhone, and spent millions doing it. Nobody was fooled because the
Instinct is a Windows mobile device, and it actually sucks really hard. But it
won't be long before there are a half dozen _really good_ Android phones, and
at least some of those manufacturers will push it as hard as the Instinct was
pushed. And, in the case of Android phones, consumers won't be deeply
disappointed by what they see.

Microsoft didn't have to advertise DOS or Windows very aggressively to beat
Apple, Commodore and Atari back in 1985 and 1986 (when the market leader for
the next twenty years was being decided and it was all still up in the air) in
the market. Their army of OEMs did it for them.

~~~
ahoyhere
But all of those early microcomputers were competing for the extreme market,
the nerd market, the early adopters and 16-year-old kids (with rich parents or
verrrry successful after-school jobs).

Android can't beat the iPhone that way.

Also, used a G1 much? Android sucks, it's hard to use even for a person who
has a clue (aka me), and its touch UI is bizarre.

There's no way a soccer mom will buy one and then buy one for her spoiled
tween, unlike with the iPhone.

~~~
SwellJoe
_Also, used a G1 much?_

Yes, I have two of them (developer and standard). I love it. The hardware is
kinda crap, but the OS is awesome.

 _But all of those early microcomputers were competing for the extreme market,
the nerd market_

1986 was not merely the nerd market. It was also the business market. I think
we're sitting at the very same point in history with smart phones (the point
at which they become really useful and usable for a whole new class of user).

Anyway, I think we'll just have to agree to disagree. I happen to love
Android. It's reliable, fast, and does everything I want it to in a very
intuitive manner. But, not only that, I think the fact that Google is
enlisting dozens of manufacturers to work on their behalf to establish and
grow the platform is an unbeatable strategy, unless Google (and their
partners) completely screw it up. Apple can compete with one company making a
cool phone. Apple simply can't compete with a dozen companies making cool
phones...because history tells me that the dozen standards based companies
will be able to make them cheaper, faster, and occasionally better. Apple just
can't be everywhere (and in fact, part of their plan has been to remain
exclusive to one carrier...people like cool products, but they also like to
have choices).

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cellis
Right now I am using the new IO Developer Conference HTC. Gotta say it is
pretty slick. Being a game developer, i can't wait to develop a game for it.
Does it compare with the iphone, with apple's brand cachet, accelerometer, and
nonstop media attention? No. Still, it's better than my now broken Blackberry,
and has the feel of a PSP. Maybe Android has a chance.

I for one, was really hoping that _Microsoft_ came with a handheld competition
for the iPod Touch. From what i can see, the Zune HD isn't it. The extent that
it lends itself to game development seems to be incredibly lackluster and
half-hearted, and i think this is for two reaons: 1) Microsoft doesn't want to
officially dilute the xbox brand with a Zune PSP clone because they don't have
a mobile game strategy yet (it's Microsoft, it takes time!), and 2) they're
still hoping that they can claim some market share in the MP3 market, which
seems a horrible plan, but then so did the xbox...

