
A Magician’s Best Trick: Revealing a Basic Human Bias - anigbrowl
http://www.wsj.com/articles/confirmation-bias-is-a-basic-human-frailty-1420045281?mod=WSJ_article_EditorsPicks_1
======
praptak
James Randi did a similar trick, i.e. one even less reliant on mechanical
tricks or a quick hand but rather on human bias.

Students in a class were given horoscopes in envelopes marked with their birth
dates. The students were then asked to read the horoscopes and tell if they
were accurate. Most were amazed how accurate the horoscopes were.

The trick is that every student had been given the same horoscope which was
just cleverly written.

~~~
tokenadult
This is a demonstration of the fallacy of personal validation. (And yet
personal validation is brought up in dozens of replies on Hacker News each
day.) That demonstration of the fallacy of personal validation was first made
by psychologist Bertram R. Forer (1914-2000), who published a paper about the
experiment in 1949.[1] Because Forer was the first to publish about an
experiment on the issue, the phenomenon is sometimes called the Forer
Effect.[2] The fallacy of personal validation is one of the bases of the
practice of "cold reading," pretending to read someone's mind by throwing out
wild guesses and observing which wild guesses are accepted by an observer.[3]

[1]
[http://apsychoserver.psych.arizona.edu/JJBAReprints/PSYC621/...](http://apsychoserver.psych.arizona.edu/JJBAReprints/PSYC621/Forer_The%20fallacy%20of%20personal%20validation_1949.pdf)

[2] [http://skepdic.com/forer.html](http://skepdic.com/forer.html)

[http://badpsychologyblog.org/post/33441629830/the-forer-
barn...](http://badpsychologyblog.org/post/33441629830/the-forer-barnum-
effect)

[3] [http://skepdic.com/coldread.html](http://skepdic.com/coldread.html)

[http://denisdutton.com/cold_reading.htm](http://denisdutton.com/cold_reading.htm)

------
click170
If you enjoyed this you might be interested in reading up on James Randi. To
quote Wikipedia, he is "a Canadian-American retired stage magician and
scientific skeptic best known for his challenges to paranormal claims and
pseudoscience."

There are numerous documentaries and films about him and his life, the one
that got me started was a BBC Storyville episode:
[http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/galleries/p029bgws](http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/galleries/p029bgws)

It's not currently available on iPlayer apparently, though that restriction
does not apply to torrent sites. Couldn't recommend it enough.

~~~
agumonkey
Small snippet of a show of his (old)
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfZDwDE1yr8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfZDwDE1yr8)
Just for fun, the chair drop was priceless.

------
WalterBright
I just finished reading "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Kahneman. He goes into
great detail about our various cognitive biases, and how they constantly lead
us astray. The most fascinating insight is how they still lead experienced
statisticians astray in the same way, and even when these biases are pointed
out to them! The mistakes keep coming.

We're not half as intelligent and rational as we believe we are.

~~~
mkaziz
I'm having a terrible time with that book. It's so incredibly dry!

~~~
Kiro
I have it and I'm considering it my next read but this sounds bad. Does anyone
have a different opinion?

~~~
mkaziz
I think people like it because it was seminal, and just about every other pop
psychology book references it. That said, the material is better presented
elsewhere. A great book that I enjoyed is: [http://www.amazon.com/Makes-Brain-
Happy-Should-Opposite/dp/1...](http://www.amazon.com/Makes-Brain-Happy-Should-
Opposite/dp/1616144831/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1420073463&sr=1-1&keywords=happy+brain)

------
rickdale
Magic is fascinating. Theres a magician that is in the first season on his tv
show called Michael Carbonaro. The show is called the Carbonaro Effect.
Basically, he sets up scenarios and goes on to fool people using magic. My
favorite scenario that I saw was when he was showing people how to rebean
ground coffee beans and the lady he was showing it to said, "Yeah I know how
this works. I used to run a coffee shop."

~~~
AndyNemmity
The Carbonaro Effect is interesting because it isn't telling the person ahead
of time that they are performing a magic trick. The trick is to have them
believe a serious proposition in a serious place.

I dislike that it's a lie to the person to start. I do magic because I love to
do magic, and want to share my passion with you. I don't enjoy lying or
deceiving you in a serious manner like that.

But to each his own.

~~~
spdustin
As an amateur magician myself, I've always thought of magic as "deceiving with
the intent to delight".

~~~
talmand
The difference being, to me as an audience to your magic, is that I know that
I'm being deceived and still delighted by it.

~~~
spdustin
Well said, and point taken.

~~~
kaoD
To add to GP's point, telling the audience they're being deceived makes the
trick even harder to pull off. I'm sure many will run along with the trick,
but some people like me will keep an eye on suspicious moves and, as GP said,
still love to be deceived even when paying attention.

That's why I love up-close magic tricks and loathe magician TV shows full of
cut shots and stooges in the audience.

EDIT: Either Criss Angel or Dynamo just downvoted me! :P

~~~
jmccree
This is one reason I love Penn & Teller. They never insult their audience by
claiming to actually have magic powers. It's hard to beat their cups and balls
trick using clear plastic cups while explaining exactly how the trick is being
done, yet it's still almost impossible to follow the sleight of hand for most
people. It's so impressive.

------
eggoa
Reminds me of this ancient web magic trick.

[http://www.angelfire.com/ak2/intelligencerreport/page67.inde...](http://www.angelfire.com/ak2/intelligencerreport/page67.index.html)

~~~
finid
Only a person who doesn't know how the Web works will fall for that.

~~~
greenyoda
You don't need to know anything about how the web works. The second set of
cards they show you doesn't have ANY of the original cards, so there's a 100%
chance that the card you chose will have been "removed". If you're only
concentrating on the card you chose, you won't notice that all of the other
cards have changed, since they look similar (8 of clubs turned into the 8 of
spades).

~~~
Natsu
See, I was assuming he meant that only people who don't know how to use the
'back' button to compare the two sets of cards would be fooled.

------
sparkzilla
For a good example of confirmation bias watch Derren Brown's "The System" [1]
where he makes a woman believe an unknown benefactor has a foolproof system
for betting on horses. "Mail Order Prophet" [2] by Alfred Hitchock has a
similar idea.

[1][https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4)]
[2][https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zh0MvRagES0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zh0MvRagES0)

~~~
sukilot
Richard Feyman told a similar story about con man he met in Vegas. He talks
about the probability computations needed to work out each step in the scam --
how the con man makes money off a "no-risk trial, I will pay your bet if you
lose")

Mathnet on 321-Contact did the mail order prophet scam, and my dad's
stockbroker friend once joked about running the same scam.

~~~
AndyNemmity
A mathnet reference, wow. My favorite show as a kid, I even show my kids it
today.

Edit: Found the episode for you

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tj-
XMRu_q4s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tj-XMRu_q4s)

~~~
casion
Man, this just lead me to tracking down and watching every Mathman segment I
could find.

I watched Square One so much as a kid and it directly inspired my love of
engineer and math.

------
GmeSalazar
This article reminds me of some videos I've watched on YouTube about
paranormal "investigations". It's kind of funny how prone the "investigators"
are to interprete random events as paranormal manifestations. Background
noises are generally seen as EVPs[1] and they manage to match them to
something they were expecting to hear; [2] provides a reasonable explanation
for that.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_voice_phenomenon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_voice_phenomenon)
[2]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia)

------
baddox
The dime-in-both-hands trick is a very clear example, but it also sounds so
simple and obvious that I can't imagine many people falling for it, especially
if they knew the performer was a magician. But perhaps I'm just so cynical
that I would always be more concentrated on figuring out a magician's tricks
than letting myself be entertained.

~~~
AndyNemmity
It isn't a trick that I've ever seen a magician perform, it's more along the
lines of something your Uncle would do.

Many people are more concentrated on figuring out a magician's tricks. A great
magician will make sure you aren't particularly worried about that until the
end when you go, "Shit, what happened?"

------
AndyNemmity
I'm a magician, and there are many extremely interesting parts about human
psychology that relate to lessons you learn. This isn't one of them.

This is a fine fluff piece about someone's experience watching a magician (and
not a particularly good one from the tale). Nothing wrong with enjoying the
story, but it doesn't reveal anything particularly interesting.

The psychology of the spectator is the most fascinating part of magic to me.
I'm not sure how it would relate to "diplomacy, politics, finance and everyday
life."

I know I use the same psychology in social situations, and public speaking
that I do in magic, at times. It's hard to generalize because magic is an
amazing field of a ton of areas.

I want to tell you what it is, why I use it, and details about it because it's
a passionate hobby of mine, but magic is also the only field I've ever known
where you aren't allowed to share what you do.

You build up a tremendous amount of skill, and then hide it. Guitarists show
you what they do, amazing. Artists, Actors, Jugglers, Comedians..

Magicians are the only one where success is hiding your skill.

~~~
lukifer
> I'm not sure how it would relate to "diplomacy, politics, finance and
> everyday life."

Spinning narratives that reinforce what people want to believe has been a
time-honored tradition since the beginning of humanity. It's deeply relevant
to those domains and more.

> Magicians are the only one where success is hiding your skill.

Magicians are one of the few crafts where hiding skill is mandatory (perhaps
barring meta-showmen like Penn & Teller).

But this pattern too shows up many other places. Comedians have to conceal the
performative nature of their act, making it seem like the 874th iteration of a
joke is something they just thought of extemporaneously. Actors aren't eager
to share the mundane grind of their method(s), so as not to break the
illusion. (For instance: Tom Hanks sometimes does math problems in his head
for certain types of reaction shots.) Or consider the politician backed by the
talented speechwriters and research team, who you'll never meet or even hear
mentioned.

In a sense, stage/street magic is a subset of a game that all humans play:
perception management (with varying degrees of honesty). Being more aware of
this process and how our buttons are being pushed is something that would help
us all.

~~~
AndyNemmity
Very good point about performers hiding the mundane method of their grind. But
the actual performance shows the skill. Magic hides the skill.

------
boothead
Anyone interested in the neuroscience behind magic should read Sleights of
Mind [http://www.sleightsofmind.com/](http://www.sleightsofmind.com/). Really
fascinating book!

------
guelo
This is the same con used in the classic three card monty.

------
Kiro
This is a great "prank". Anyone know of any similar ones? I don't even know
what to call the genre. It's more mind bending than pranky.

