

The iPad, the Newton, & the "Of Course" Model of Innovation Diffusion - ahoyhere
http://cheerfulsw.com/2010/ipad-a-staggering-work-of-obvious/

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hugh3
Leaving aside the somewhat creepy Jobs-worship in this article, I don't think
this is right:

 _The problem with the Newton wasn’t any physical or technical problem. Those
are easy to surmount. The problem that broke the Newton was that nobody was
prepared for it. There was no mental slot in people’s heads that the Newton
could glide into. Nothing like it had ever existed before. It was
revolutionary. It was a total surprise._

Didn't the Newton appear in the middle of a fad for little PDA-type computers
which busy-looking executive types would pull out to painstakingly type their
appointments on? I seem to remember them being quite popular for a little
while in the early 90s.

Ooh, here's an article from 1993 about the launches of various PDAs:

[http://www.faqs.org/abstracts/Business-general/PDA-
devices-s...](http://www.faqs.org/abstracts/Business-general/PDA-devices-
stage-trade-show-debut-Apples-Newton-maintains-a-low-profile.html)

However the keyboard-based Casio etc versions outsold the Newton for pretty
much the reasons dismissed in the article -- the Newton was too expensive and
the handwriting recognition didn't work very well.

~~~
kevbin
Scully oversold the Newton idea to the extent that the MessagePad 110 seemed
inept. By the time the 2100 was released, the Newton brand was sullied enough
to ensure its transformative ideas would not take hold. We settled for a
decade of calendar/address book PDAs and incremental laptop evolution, to
arrive somewhere in the same neighborhood as the 2100.

Mac OS X, iPods, and iPhones seem to be evidence that Apple and Jobs overcame
the need for revolutionary, high-risk-high-reward leaps in favor of ratcheted,
stepwise refinement that draws the market toward the same location in design
space without risking quarter-after-quarter of red ink, product shortages,
blown deadlines and vaporware saviors. I don't think it's a coincidence that
the underlying software is (openly code-named) "Darwin".

~~~
ahoyhere
Can't disagree with you regarding Scully, either… which is probably part and
parcel why Jobs has never deviated from pre-announcing only when the products
were completed, just not shipping.

Re: Darwin specifically, Apple actually owns (or used to own) mammals.org,
well before the acquisition of NeXT. That type of reference is definitely an
Apple thing.

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buster
Am i the only one who can't read all those "the iPad will change our world"
prophecies anymore? It's like a self-fulfilling prophecy, repeated and echoed
by blogs and news media, people already buy the iPad like crazy. Most of the
people probably don't even know why to buy it, only that they have to buy it
to stay cool and have the current supergadget according to every news source
on this world.

~~~
colinplamondon
Have you used it yet? I don't mean that in a negative way, it's just that most
people I know had no interest at all in the iPad until they saw mine. The hype
can't hurt, but this is a product that simply sells the shit out of itself.

~~~
Glide
This is exactly what I thought about the first iPod. I really didn't think it
was that big of a deal because there were other mp3 players on the market.
Then I actually got my hands on one... Wow.

I am afraid of going into an Apple store and walking out with an unplanned
purchase of an iPad.

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kevbin
My favorite feature of the iPad is its $39 Newton wetsuit case. Anyone
fortunate enough to have owned a message pad knows the good vibes that flowed
from holding their little rubberized-metal gifts from the future. There may be
no soup, no NewtonScript, and no book maker, but a lot of the Newton's heart
and soul is in the iPad and the iPhone. I don't know who created the iPad or
how well they knew the MessagePad 2100, but it is a milestone in personal
computing technology that deserves a worthy successor like the iPad and an
homage like the wonderful wetsuit wrap.

~~~
starkfist
The case is a scuzz magnet, doesn't work with the dock, and has no clasp so
you still have to worry that it is going to fall open in your bag. Your post
is cool because I honestly can't tell if it is sarcasm or not. Kudos!

~~~
kevbin
No sarcasm. I don't love the case qua case, but for it's feel in hand and as a
reference to the Newton's case material. I'd prefer a Newtonized bottom in
lieu of the wrap, but you can't have everything in one swell foop.

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rauljara
I'm not sure I agree with everything he says (particularly the stuff about
pundits trashing, the iPad; a few have, but I'd say the balance of press has
been pretty heavily tilted in apple's favor), but I'm kind of blown away that
I haven't seen a blog post comparing the iPad and Newton before now. Such an
obvious comparison to make in hindsight.

~~~
ahoyhere
"Amy" is typically a girl's name.

~~~
kolektiv
Why are people downvoting an author asking that people maybe take a moment to
check whether they're responding to a woman before they write "he"? Is it that
much hassle to check a byline?

~~~
tdoggette
A small, italic, grey-on-white pair of words, one of which is an uncapitalized
name

versus

The vast majority of tech writers and geeks in general being male

Downvoting the guy pointing out the incorrect assumption is unwarranted, yeah,
but the assumption is one that'll be correct really, really often.

~~~
ahoyhere
Which doesn't mean you shouldn't point it out. (Although yes, that is
something I'm fixing when I get around to finishing my design.)

By the way - the "guy pointing out the incorrect assumption" is a girl.

I'm laughing. :)

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mjfern
A significant gap in this article is a discussion of the complements that are
adding tremendous value to the iPad (and Apple's other recent products).
Imagine the fate of the iPad if there was no AppStore, no iBooks, and no
iTunes; a pretty piece of hardware with few applications and no media content.

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evo_9
The idea that the Ipad was/is obvious is intersting and considering what else
might be obvious and coming from Apple I have to say the 7" rumor seems
logical. After playing with the ipad for a few minutes I was struck by two
things: 1) it is heavier than I expect or would probably enjoy laying in bed,
and 2), the screen is larger than I personally need.

So for me I think a 7" Ipad would be ideal. But I'm not trying to replace a
netbook or laptop with this machine so maybe that's part of it too.

~~~
kevbin
It's not too heavy to be good in bed, but too slippery to play with in the
bathtub without its rubber jacket.

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zephjc
My friend and I were talking about this the other day. If you want to rock the
world, pick a final product that is years - even a decade or more - away and
which rocks, and reason back all the potential earlier versions to the
present, then build the next gen iteration. Easier said than done of course,
and making sure each iteration is a hit is even harder.

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DrSprout
The aricle is neglecting the most important features of the iPad: video and
wireless. It's like looking at a TI-83 and comparing it to a modern cell phone
and wondering why nobody walked around with a TI-83 in their pocket except
engineers.

~~~
ahoyhere
The expectations of the world in re: video and wireless were completely
different in 1993. Were you there?

~~~
DrSprout
What's your point? Such a device does not have a mainstream user base without
wireless or video.

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zb
I don't think you can underestimate the importance of having apps already
available at launch time. Great article, though. I really enjoyed the Le
Corbusier piece as well. Please write more!

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Pahalial
While this article does a fantastic job expounding on reasons the Newton
failed, it seems to implicitly assert that people are "prepared" for the iPad,
and that there is a space in their minds for such a device now. I would
challenge this assertion. My own preferences notwithstanding, the only people
I've heard even contemplate getting an iPad are people with 2+ MacBooks. In
other words: "yes, but."

Perhaps all this article really meant to say is that the cult of Mac is
eminently more powerful today than 20 years ago - in which case yes, I agree
entirely.

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tybris
Job's Apple uses a combination of design, technology and marketing to turn
their products into status symbols.

