
The Arctic is ablaze: Peat fires are the latest symptom of climate change - pseudolus
https://www.economist.com/europe/2019/08/01/the-arctic-is-ablaze
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Everyday we read a new story about how changes are accelerating, and none of
these changes are accounted for in any of the traditionally accepted climate
models.

I think it's time admit that the climate models that we've been relying on
aren't accurately modeling the changes that are taking place.

I remember reading about models in the 80's and 90's that started showing
significant change starting to take place in the early 2020's, which means we
are running ahead of even those aggressive models. Sort of a hockey stick
curve of changes. What I remember about those aggressive models is that things
got bad real quick, like 2050 quick and real bad like stuff that the normal
models didn't think would happen for a 3 or four hundred years bad.

Those more aggressive models just faded away because no one believed that
things could change so quickly. Back in the day most scientists thought it was
crazy to think that the permafrost would ever thaw on a large scale, let alone
start burning on a massive scale.

Right now everyone is operating on the belief that we can slow the rate of
climate change, but the earth and the climate are now locked in a number of
positive feedback loops, warming oceans, phytoplankton population crashes,
thawing permafrost, thawing glaciers, ocean salinity drops, seal level rise.
These systems and feedback loops are much bigger that the fraction of change
proposed by the Paris agreement, and usually feedback loops don't stop until
resources are exhausted or the loop breaks. These loops have a massive amount
of resources and they aren't going to stop anytime, nor be impacted but our
minuscule proposed changes.

I think the learned climate scientists need to start scouring paper archives
to start looking for those more aggressive models because it's clear the
assumptions the current models use are badly flawed.

