
Shutdown Will Be Worse for Economy Than First Thought, White House Says - craftyguy
https://www.npr.org/2019/01/16/685845545/shutdown-will-be-worse-for-economy-than-first-thought-white-house-says
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x0054
It’s not about the wall being immoral. It’s about it being monumentally stupid
and a waste of money. There are much better solutions.

~~~
baron816
I think the more important thing is to keep a single branch from using a
shutdown as a tool to get their way. Government via hostage taking is not
democratic.

~~~
sigfubar
Both branches of the government are holding the country hostage.

~~~
dragontamer
Only one person veto'd the continuing resolution this time around.

We know who to blame. If both sides walked away from the CR, then maybe you'd
have a point. But only ONE side (of the three sides: House, Senate, and
President) have walked away from the CR.

Shutdown also started when the House was controlled by Republicans. The
shutdown was 10-days old before Pelosi took the gavel and Democrats entered
the house. Former speaker Ryan didn't feel like fixing the issue on his way
out, so he left it to the Democrats. McConnell, while he's gone into hiding
recently, managed to pass a bill in late December which could have prevented
the shutdown (so McConnell barely gets a passing grade. A C-, he did something
to stop the shutdown at least. But McConnell should show some leadership and
rally the Senate to stop the shutdown today, just as he did back in December)

I place the blame mostly on the President (for destroying the CR agreement
McConnell passed), and somewhat on Mr. Ryan for walking away from the problem
on the last 10 days of his Speakership.

~~~
kolbe
I'm not sure about that logic. It's just a consequence of the order of
operations. If the process went Sentate->President->House for approval, the
House would be the only one to not approve a bill that included wall funding.

~~~
jasonlotito
Good reason for that: Congress controls the purse. The House already passed
legislation that all Senators in December passed, so most of the Senators
still there voted in favor of the bill. Congress doesn't need the President's
approval, either. They can override his veto. The Senate has the votes for
that already based on votes for the same legislation already.

The Senate could take it up for a vote again, and pass the bill they already
passed, but they won't, purely for political games.

~~~
masonic
They aren't the same bill (115th vs 116th).

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xwvvvvwx
It’s also gonna make it way harder for the gov to attract talent for a while.

~~~
thatoneuser
Eh. Most government positions are really "big talent" kind of ordeal. Most are
a stable way to make decent money with great benefits and retirement. The ones
that are valuable will still get their talent I'm sure.

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JTbane
I, for one, am very glad to not be a government worker. Imagine getting a free
month-long unpaid vacation, or worse, a month of work without pay!

~~~
twunde
Even worse, there's no known end date. You can't go traveling, visit your
family or anything else you'd do on vacation because the shutdown _could_ end
tomorrow and then you'd have to go back.

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nkurz
Does anyone have thoughts on the theory that after 30 days of shutdown, it's
easier to remove otherwise protected employees? The source I saw doesn't seem
particularly trustworthy
([https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/01/omb_issues_guid...](https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/01/omb_issues_guidance_on_reduction_in_force_layoffs_due_to_partial_shutdown.html))
but the argument seems plausible enough. The idea is that a fast-tracked
"Reduction in Force" reorganization plan intended to permanently downsize the
government could be backdated to the beginning of the shutdown, thus giving
Trump considerable leverage over Congress. Is there anything to this argument?

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war1025
The way I've been thinking about it is that shutdown a couple years ago was
really a game of chicken where neither side thought it was actually going to
happen.

This time around it's more of a siege tactic where the idea is to hunker down
until one side feels enough pain that they will yield. It's really a case of
which side's base can tolerate the pain longer without either flipping sides
or losing faith in the leadership.

Plus it's Trump's power tactic at letting the Dems know he's the boss even now
that they have the House. He has zero problem playing the bad guy to get what
he wants and come out on top.

~~~
khawkins
It's just as much Pelosi and Schumer playing politics. They don't want to give
him any money, despite this being a fairly small request, because they know
that if he can't deliver on his central campaign promise it will tear his base
away from him and secure his 2020 defeat.

~~~
yellowapple
Correction: his base will blame Pelosi and Schumer for standing in the way of
border security and vote in droves for Trump Term 2: Electric Boogaloo.

~~~
AnimalMuppet
_Election_ Boogaloo. I can't believe you missed that.

~~~
yellowapple
Well shucks.

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assblaster
If the wall is immoral and ineffective, should the United States destruct the
existing portions of the wall already built at the US-Mexican border?

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cenal
Watched this video from CBS News recently and it looks like portions of the
wall in place are sticks with wire:
[https://youtu.be/5o4d6Wp3u2Q](https://youtu.be/5o4d6Wp3u2Q)

~~~
assblaster
What about the wall at the border by San Diego? That's a much better fortified
structure, and if immoral and against the principles of the United States,
wouldn't this portion be worth getting rid of?

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khawkins
"Citing an unnamed official."

This headline is misleading. It suggests that Trump administration officials
are publicly reporting this, when the question of who is saying this cannot be
confirmed.

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vikingcaffiene
Ugh what a mess. It's not just that we are lighting money on fire, it's also
that the reason for all of it is so pointless. Those poor furloughed workers
are having very real damage inflicted upon them. Damage that will take years
to recover from if they ever do. It's cruel, its pointless, its stupid. At
this point the shutdown has cost more than a wall ever would.

Then of course there's the more disturbing thought that if I were a Russian
asset looking to sow chaos and economic instability in the country, a shutdown
(and a trade war, and alienating our allies abroad) would do a pretty good
job...

~~~
nopriorarrests
>Damage that will take years to recover from if they ever do.

Can you please elaborate? From my limited knowledge, furloughed workers
haven't got a paycheck (yet) for a one month. Is this kind of damage they will
be recovering from for years?

~~~
dragontamer
In the 2013 Shutdown, a number of government experiments (ie: Flu Experiments)
were destroyed due to neglect from the shutdown. Which ended up having the
worst Flu Vaccination success rate in the last 10 years or something (like a
stupid low 30%).

Etc. etc. Government projects are stopped during shutdowns. It literally takes
years to recover from a shutdown (another year or two before Flu Vaccination
experiments were back up and running at full potential)

~~~
nopriorarrests
OK, I get that some projects will have to restart from scratch, but this is
not like furloughed workers have "some real damage inflicted upon them".

It's just work, and their lives are more or less unaffected (with the
exception of a single - so far - paycheck being delayed).

~~~
fzeroracer
A lot of people live paycheck to paycheck. To them, a single lost paycheck can
mean not paying rent on time or not eating.

Acting like this is not causing real damage is highly disingenuous.

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TomMckenny
Putin sure got his money's worth.

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matte_black
How are the shutdown’s effects on the economy being measured? Where did they
come up with 0.1% loss every 2 weeks?

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ams6110
Good question. As will all previous shutdowns, I have not noticed any impact
whatsoever.

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SolaceQuantum
I noticed the shutdown of last year. In particular, my advisor(I was a
doctorate student at the time) was informed he won a significant award by the
NSF with guaranteed funding and was unable to recieve it until two months or
so after the shutdown. (As a side note we were also disrupted by the
immigration ban, and were unable to bring on excellent scholars to pursue
research at our facility.)

I'm no longer in research, but of my companions who are, this is definitely
being felt.

~~~
kaitai
Yep. NIH granting cycle is totally derailed & it's job interview season in
academia.

