

How America will collapse (by 2025) - robg
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2010/12/06/america_collapse_2025

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dcaldwell
After having lived the last 4 or so years overseas in a developing country,
here's why I'm not as concerned about America as alarmist pundits:

1) I'm not trying to be nationalistic here, but we have one of if not THE most
entrepreneurial, hard working, critical thinking work forces in the world.
That is an intangible but one I believe will keep the US competitive long in
the future. It generally takes generations for this to change (both in
countries that lack it and in countries that have it.)

2) Economics isn't a zero sum game. Just because China or India overtakes the
US as the world's leading economy doesn't mean that the US is worse off for
it. Value can be added without being taken away. If China becomes the world's
largest economy and at the same time, the US's per capita GDP doubles from
where it is today, is the US really any worse off?

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anonymous246
The point the article was making but didn't flesh out is that the dollar's
status as a reserve currency has _HUGE_ benefits for the US public. If that
status disappears (due to the rise of other countries), the standard of living
in the US _will_ decrease.

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hga
True ... but as of yet, I just don't see a replacement, although 2025 it a
long ways out there.

Right now, the dollar is still the least worst currency.

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mikecarlucci
China and India each have about three times the population of the United
States. While I don't agree with the direction the country has been on since
2000, I think the problems facing the US are not so terrible as to be
unavoidable.

Being the top superpower economically, militarily, and governmentally with
three hundred million people rather than one billion long-term is not
realistic. Eventually you are going to be outproduced in most areas.

Unless we are about to go over the edge now into Great Depression II I think
America will be fine. Having China, India, US and the EU as essentially four
superpowers will be a political situation like we have never seen before.

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gopi
I grew up in india and live in US for the past 10 years and visit india often.
I am amused by all this doom doctors... Trust me, US is the best country in
the world and has a lot of long term advantages (like natural resources,
relatively strong capitalistic system, stable political system, great
universities, a big entrepreneurial population, open to immigration etc etc).
There are a lot of problems in china and india which media don't talk about.

I agree US has a lot of short term issues like deficit etc. But its all
manageable. If i go by the deficit commissions report just reforming the tax
system and increasing the retirement age by 2 years will wipe out the deficit.

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Vivtek
Music, movies, microcode, and high-speed pizza delivery. That's all America
_should_ do. The whole military empire thing has always been the opiate of the
elite.

~~~
hyperbovine
Was that a deliberate reference to Snow Crash?

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Vivtek
It would be wildly improbable to include "microcode" otherwise.

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raheemm
Err... why such a dismissive attitude towards the thesis of the article? We
_do_ have some massive problems including:

1\. Foreign wars that are a drag on resources

2\. Internal entitlements (SS, medicare) that are unsustainable and also a
growing drag on resources

3\. A political culture that seems incapable of meeting the long-term needs of
the nation

4\. Increasingly better global competitors

Will these problems just go away once we climb out of the recession?

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TomOfTTB
I can't speak for anyone else but my dismissive attitude is based on the fact
that he seems to have done no more than 15 minutes worth of research for this
article and what research he has done is badly attributed. To give an example
of this he quotes the number of Patents filed by the U.S., Japan and China.
But anyone whose looked at a random batch of patents can tell you a lot of
them ill conceived tripe (ever watch cable TV between 1am and 5am?). Which
means it proves very little without looking at the content of the patents
(which he clearly didn't do)

So even if he's right the piece is so badly done that it doesn't deserve a lot
of respect.

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xentronium
Known holywar, weak proofs, nothing new, flag, yawn.

~~~
TomOfTTB
My favorite was when he just starts making up actual scenarios. This paragraph
is classic...

"It’s mid-summer 2014 and a drawn-down U.S. garrison in embattled Kandahar in
southern Afghanistan is suddenly, unexpectedly overrun by Taliban guerrillas,
while U.S. aircraft are grounded by a blinding sandstorm. Heavy loses are
taken and in retaliation, an embarrassed American war commander looses B-1
bombers and F-16 fighters to demolish whole neighborhoods of the city that are
believed to be under Taliban control, while AC-130U "Spooky" gunships rake the
rubble with devastating cannon fire."

When you're using fictional accounts that you made up as proof of your concept
it's probably a sign you need to find some more supporting research before you
publish

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mr1900
Glen Beck for intellectuals

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ilkhd2
Next superpower is not China IMHO, but Germany-centered smaller EU. Or, if for
example if Russia truly change, that will be a real force as well.

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siglesias
China leading the US in technological innovation? That's rich.

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hartror
You sound just like Doc in Back to the Future (he was talking about Japan
however).

This little tidbit points to the problem.

 _just as America's current supply of brilliant scientists and engineers
retires, without adequate replacement by an ill-educated younger generation._

Without the collage educated middle class to fill startups and R&D
firms/departments what is the US going to build it's continued technological
innovation on?

Education is a long term investment in the future and one that the US has
being failing making for some time now.

~~~
kanak
> Education is a long term investment in the future and one that the US has
> being failing making for some time now.

The treatment of foreign students is particularly perplexing. We come here,
spend 4+ years learning at the best colleges, honing our craft, becoming
skilled, and learning from the experts.

What happens when we graduate? We face a supremely unfriendly immigration
scenario where we have to essentially find a job or be deported. Even when we
find a job, we're totally at the mercy of our employer to remain in the US.

I know quite a few people who just left the country because of these
immigration related issues... and I think it's america's loss because these
people have gone on to launch startups/do research abroad.

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mikecarlucci
I don't know if it's just fears about offshoring or what but anyone who has
already been allowed to come and study in the country should have an
opportunity to stay.

Running a school as a business and then sending "clients" away after
graduation makes sense for the school, but not for the idea of education.

Like people who "buy American" and get a Ford made in Mexico rather than a
Honda made in America, it isn't "us" and "them." If a foreign student gets
hired here, has a family, and contributes to the American economy, they've
become American and those statistics about degree shortages look a lot better.

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kanak
It's specially ridiculous when you consider the fact that as a grad student
you are actually PAID to study (granted, it's not a huge amount, but the point
remains). So essentially, I come here, get paid to study, learn from the best,
and go back home where I can put my skills to use for people other than
Americans.

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pyre
There's a lot of anti-immigration sentiment. The logic (or anti-logic if you
will) plays out something like this:

* I don't like immigrants because they take jobs from hard-working Americans. [ Note that this doesn't differentiate between 'off-shoring' and 'immigration' ]

* Foreigners in our schools are taking away spots that could be filled by Americans.

* If we allow foreigners to study here, and _then_ make it easy for them to stay, then it's a double-whammy. They are "taking education away from Americans," and then staying here to "take jobs away from Americans" too.

There is also a smattering of, "oh noes, the person from country X will only
be loyal to country X and will therefore be a spy in our midst!"

Note: I don't hold the above beliefs.

