

The New San Francisco Suburbs, a Plane Ride Away - jmillerinc
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304198004575172541279575622.html

======
hugh3
I visited Portland for the first time last month, and was struck by how much
it reminded me of San Francisco minus the worst things about San Francisco.

1\. San Francisco is a right bastard to get around since the various districts
are spread out and separated by huge hills. Portland is easily walkable.

2\. San Francisco has slow, dirty, overpriced public transport. Portland has a
convenient light rail system which is free in the downtown core area, and
drops you right at the airport for a buck fifty.

3\. San Francisco is filthy. Portland is clean. San Francisco has aggressive
panhandlers and crazy people everywhere, Portland somehow keeps most of 'em
out.

4\. San Francisco is insanely expensive and only those earning multi-hundred-K
a year can afford to actually buy there. Portland is nice and cheap.

5\. San Francisco has great scenery which is spoiled by tourists. Portland has
perfectly adequate scenery which isn't.

Another nice thing: no sales tax. That means that you wind up paying what it
says on the label and don't have to do the "compute in head and fumble with
loose change" thing. Plus they've got good food, funky bars, and a classic
video game arcade.

What they unfortunately don't have is a first-rate university, or anywhere
else that might be likely to employ me.

~~~
waterlesscloud
They do have the best bookstore in the country, as well. Powell's deserves its
reputation for depth.

~~~
throw_away
If any hn readers go, be sure to hit up the technical bookstore a couple
blocks away from the giganto bookstore. It is amazing. There are over a dozen
rows of programming books, many with used copies right there beside them. Not
just of old books, either. Last time I was there, I picked up a used copy of a
book that had been published only four months earlier.

------
Empact
This is a how a once-venerable tech city loses its significance. Suffocated by
incompetent governments and an unwillingness to build, talent is forced to
move elsewhere and ultimately shifts the center of gravity toward their chosen
destinations.

I for one look forward to Portland, Austin and the rest picking up where San
Francisco left off.

~~~
pg
Actually the region seems more prosperous than ever.

I've never heard of an example of a city that died from high real estate
prices. Do you know of any?

Empirically, what seems to kill cities is crime, or the death of some industry
they depend on.

~~~
pw0ncakes
_I've never heard of an example of a city that died from high real estate
prices. Do you know of any?_

New York in the '70s. I wouldn't call this "death" since the city came back,
but I wouldn't want to repeat that debacle.

It's not high real estate prices per se that kills a city _per se_ , but real
estate _volatility_. When real estate prices are high, repairs aren't made
because there's no need to-- apartments sell themselves. When they're low and
vacancy rates are high, repairs aren't made because there is no point.

High real estate prices and rents also impoverish a city; they draw money out
of it, since most of the ownership is outside of it (cf. New York, where
absentee assholes own most of the rental property). Some people in the city
benefit, but the net effect is negative, especially since the young and
talented are invariably on the butt-end of property prices/rents. During the
boom, this isn't a problem, but after the boom ends, prices and rents remain
high ("sticky" is the economic term) and this drains the city like a vampire.

Ten years later, due to disrepair, poverty, and exodus of talent, you have a
shell of a city. Then the crime starts, and the city falls into an arrangement
like New York in the 1970s nightmare.

What's difficult, if not impossible, to predict is when this transition will
take place. It's likely to hit New York, but I have no idea if that will
happen in 2011 or 2030. The tricky problem with bubbles (and New York real
estate is still in a bubble, despite the semi-collapse of the national
property bubble) is that it's very difficult to predict when they pop,
although inevitable that they will.

~~~
byrneseyeview
_When real estate prices are high, repairs aren't made because there's no need
to-- apartments sell themselves. When they're low and vacancy rates are high,
repairs aren't made because there is no point._

How does that make sense? You're arguing that repairs are not worth it if it's
easy to sell apartments (what does that mean? That the new tenants do repairs,
or that everyone is willing to live with a leaky sink as long as they pay for
it?). Or that repairs only happen when apartments can sell (so you'll only let
the sink leak if you're going to live with it for a long time).

The utility of repairs can be positively or negatively correlated with real
estate prices, but it's ridiculously unlikely for it to be both.

For what it's worth, I've lived in cheap and expensive parts of New York, and,
miracle of miracles, people took better care of apartments they paid more for.
As it turns out, it _really stings_ if you'd be able to rent someone a loft
for $8,000 a month, but you can't because they saw that that ceiling was
cracked. People paying $400/month for a room aren't nearly as picky.

~~~
api
Have you ever lived in a city like New York, San Francisco, Boston, etc?

You could list a catbox on Craigslist and get over $1000/month for it. You
wouldn't even have to empty the dirty litter first.

What he's saying really is that cities are subject to boom/bust cycles like
sectors of the economy, stock markets, etc.

------
groaner
Somewhat OT, but I got weirded out by the story for a moment. It turns out
that Scott McNeely != Scott McNealy
(<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_McNealy> \-- who almost certainly does
not have any money woes whatsoever)

~~~
rbanffy
I agree. That really felt like I stepped into a parallel universe. Just got to
my desk, cup of coffee in hand, on a Monday morning.

Weird way to start my week ;-)

------
iamelgringo
It's not just in high tech that you're seeing that either. I work with several
nurses that commute in from Houston, Austin and Portland. They make more
working 12 hour shifts for 6 days in a row in the Bay area than they can make
working a whole month in their home towns.

------
donaldc
Another advantage with the locations of Seattle and Portland in particular is
that they're in the same time zone as Silicon Valley.

------
fretlessjazz
The next San Francisco suburb? Austin Texas.

------
api
The hyperinflation of coastal real estate and the super-concentration of
talent in these places is getting absurd and insane.

~~~
donaldc
_The hyperinflation of coastal real estate and the super-concentration of
talent in these places is getting absurd and insane._

The latter leads to the former.

~~~
api
I'm quite aware of that. I just think it's too bad that the majority of
America is a vomit of worthless and aggressively ugly sprawl full of lazy
slobs that drive away any talent.

~~~
pw0ncakes
This "majority of America" has good mid-size cities that could be great but
have a critical mass problem due to the suburban mistake (e.g. Minneapolis,
Madison). The cities themselves are competitive with the nicest coastal
places, and the people in them are smart, talented and interesting (although
not quite as ambitious as on the coasts). The suburbs are depressing and
hideous, as you described.

~~~
mml
Mentioning Madison and Minneapolis in the same breath is silly. Sorry Madison,
you are in no way comparable. Minneapolis is about twice the size , harder to
spell, and prince can be seen here.

~~~
pw0ncakes
Fair point: they're cities of different sizes with different character. I like
both, but they're different.

I was just using them as examples of beautiful cities with really interesting,
vibrant cores but with depressing suburbs.

------
jckarter
The Northwest needs jobs, not parasites further inflating its real estate
market. How about you move some companies up there too?

~~~
tomjen3
And I need a hot girlfriend, but that doesn't mean I will magically get one.

I, like the Northwest, needs to get my shit together and start behaving in
such a fashion that I can attract what I want.

