
Taiwan Can Win a War with China - SubiculumCode
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-with-china/
======
onetimemanytime
Maybe they can win a battle...China will live to fight another day. Let's be
honest: if today is in doubt, a couple of decades ago China had no chance. The
trend is on China's side. What will happen two decades from now with China
having relatively unlimited money for this cause?

~~~
bobthepanda
"Win" in the sense of the article is the same kind of "win" that Finland
achieved against the USSR; they surely lost all of their objectives, but it
was long, bloody, and expensive from the USSR's point of view.

Unlimited money, or at least the willingness to spend unlimited money, has not
really resulted in a sustainable "win" in Afghanistan, for example.

~~~
onetimemanytime
_Unlimited money, or at least the willingness to spend unlimited money, has
not really resulted in a sustainable "win" in Afghanistan, for example._

China can afford a Finland vs USSR scenario, several times over. China is not
going away and the Taiwanese are essentially Han Chinese according to
Wikipedia so the Afghan scenario is different. China can offer same government
or laws for at least for x decades...

~~~
bobthepanda
The notion that everything is kumbaya among all Han Chinese automatically is a
silly government line.

> China can offer same government or laws for at least for x decades...

Wasn't Hong Kong supposed to be independently managed til 2047? The Taiwanese
are not blind.

~~~
onetimemanytime
>> _Wasn 't Hong Kong supposed to be independently managed til 2047? The
Taiwanese are not blind._

Ask Hong
Kong...[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Hon...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Hong_Kong_Garrison)
. Blind or not average people might not fight to the last man if they feel
/perceive no difference in rule.

------
echevil
Taiwan’s biggest worry right now is probably domestic. People basically lost
confidence in both parties (KMT and DPP) ever in power, and Taiwan’s future is
really unclear

~~~
appleiigs
I'm not disagreeing with you at all, but not it's not encouraging on the
international side that Russia can take Crimea - resulting in a bump to
Putin's approval ratings. I bet China is taking notes. Something for the
China's gov't to consider if it falters (eg. crash in their economy isn't far
fetched).

~~~
echevil
Yes and China is closely watching domestic events in Taiwan as well, which
does have major impacts on the relation between them, and also on the
sentiment of people on both sides.

------
bediger4000
This article feels odd. I'm not sure what's going on here, because it sounds a
bit like the "Iraq may be able to beat USA" worries that I heard in 2003,
before the Shock and Awe thing happened. Except it's the other way around.
It's not whistling past their grave. I don't know what to make of this.

------
forkLding
Issue with this is that former DPP Chair Tsai Ing-Wen has resigned her
position as Chair due to low approval ratings and voting defeats on her home
turf. Shes stayed on as president but not likely to be re-elected. Her
opposition the KMT if they get re-elected will likely continue on either good
relations with China or reunification so there would be less saber-rattling.

[https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/24/asia/taiwan-president-
resigns...](https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/24/asia/taiwan-president-resigns-
party-intl/index.html)

[https://www.economist.com/asia/2018/05/26/taiwans-
president-...](https://www.economist.com/asia/2018/05/26/taiwans-president-
has-upset-both-business-and-workers)

[http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2018/09/18/2...](http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2018/09/18/2003700647)

------
simonblack
Who needs a war? Taiwan and China will eventually merge without a murmur. More
like Germany did than Vietnam.

~~~
mosquito520
I do not agree according the latest public poll, Taiwanese people choose
independent and "keep current status(not unification)" are more than
unification.
[http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2018/09/19/2...](http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2018/09/19/2003700716)

~~~
onetimemanytime
>> _The results showed that 36.2 percent of respondents supported an
independent Taiwan, while 26.1 percent favored unifying with China and 23.2
percent supported maintaining the “status quo” in cross-strait relations._

So almost half already support either unification or status quo. Unite with
Motherland and keep the status quo (a lie but most will buy it).

Add a few decades of "economic unification," tens of billions spent on
propaganda and China will receive the island's key. Once that's done, go
ahead, undo it.

