
Venezuela to Close Pumps as Gas Runs Short, Viral Outbreak Grows - JumpCrisscross
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/venezuela-to-close-pumps-as-gas-runs-short-viral-outbreak-grows
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nostromo
Quarantine, and the economic meltdown, will end up being worse than the
disease.

~~~
xiler
I'd say that's a bit of a false dilemma. Countries like South Korea and Taiwan
have dealt with this problem far better than other countries despite having
very few lockdowns [1,2]. Instead they have made use of government funded
distribution of free masks and testing and now have a low or declining number
of active cases [3,4,5].

[1] [https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-
environment/article/30...](https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-
environment/article/3074469/coronavirus-south-korea-cuts-infection-rate-
without)

[2]
[https://chinapost.nownews.com/20200317-1094238](https://chinapost.nownews.com/20200317-1094238)

[3]
[https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3869320](https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3869320)

[4]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_T...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Taiwan)

[5]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_S...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_Korea)

~~~
unishark
South Korea passed new laws after MERS which allowed them to publicize
personal health information. People get alerts telling them someone of a
certain gender and age was tested positive and gives their prior activities. I
suspect a lockdown would be easier to pull off in the US.

Taiwan has been passing new laws since SARS that allowed them to quarantine
people. They also track people on quarantine via their phones.

If anything, I'd say the common denominator in handling this outbreak well is
having experienced a similar outbreak recently and adapting to it, at least in
part by swinging the pendulum further away from civil rights towards
protecting the populace. Both SK and Taiwan's govts were also embarrassed and
criticized after those respective previous outbreaks, prompting quicker action
next time around.

[https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51733145](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-
asia-51733145)

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alex_young
This is a humanitarian crisis. We may weather the storm at home, but this
virus knows no boarders and will decimate populations in the most vulnerable
corners of the world until we develop and internationally deploy a cure.

The rhetoric of war time may become a stark reality if this continues unabated
on our planet.

~~~
tinus_hn
Even if everyone gets infected a virus with a 2% fatality rate will hardly
decimate populations. It’s not very useful to overdramatize.

~~~
enchiridion
Around 15% require hospitalization. What do you think happens if they can't
get it? My assumption is they die. Decimation (1/10 die) is accurate, if not
an underestimation.

Edit: you also have to take the infection rate into account. Also indirect
deaths. My point stands

~~~
AntonStratiev
We can take the age profile of Venezuela[1] and the estimated hospital rates
and general virus profile from the Imperial College report[2].

Assume 80% infection, and assuming that 100% of people who would have needed
hospitalization die.

This is 720,000 people, or 2.5% of the population. However, if we just take
the working-age population (65 and lower), and assume 50% survival rate
instead of 0%, the deaths are just 0.79% of the total population.

So decimation is absolutely inaccurate and the higher-up poster is correct.
Developing countries like Venezuela cannot afford to and should not shutdown
their economies or societies.

[1] [https://www.populationpyramid.net/venezuela-bolivarian-
repub...](https://www.populationpyramid.net/venezuela-bolivarian-republic-
of/2019/)

[2] [https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-
college/medicine/s...](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-
college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-
modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)

~~~
yostrovs
A lot more people already fled Venezuela than the virus will ever kill there,
that's for sure. Also, as a correction... Venezuela is not a developing
country. It is de-developing.

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chrisco255
Venezuela running out of gas would be laughable if it weren't so tragic.
They've got the largest proven oil reserves in the world. More than Saudi
Arabia.

~~~
m0llusk
This is yet another instance of misguided incentives causing systemic failure,
much like famines that happen alongside modern farming in developed economies.
Keep in mind that most people don't pay for gas in Venezuela, they just go to
the pumps and fill up. Institutions handle the rest and those institutions
never functioned well and have been breaking down for some time.

