

Facebook eats Googles lunch by 2012 - xnerdr
http://nerdr.com/facebook-eats-googles-lunch-by-2012/

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OnorioCatenacci
Oh good--post a link to your own poorly-reasoned blog post on Hacker News.
Terrific--there's 5 minutes of my life I won't be able to get back.

1.) I'd be a lot more inclined to take your opinions seriously if you would
take a moment to spell check your work before posting it. It's not that
difficult really--use Chrome or Firefox--spell checking is built in.

2.) <sarcasm> You heard of this phone OS called Android? I hear it's really
starting to catch on. I think it's somehow related to Google. But they'll
never catch up to Facebook's smart phone OS--what's it called again?

Yep Facebook is bound to eat Google's lunch any day now. Because Google is
staffed by a load of incompetents who'll twiddle their thumbs while Facebook
nimbly beats them to death. </sarcasm>

There's nothing insightful or worthwhile about your blog posting. Don't waste
your time. More importantly don't waste my time by linking to this poorly-
reasoned, misspelled tripe on Hacker News.

~~~
xnerdr
How much of Google's revenue do you expect to be generated from Android OS?
Further, Facebook apps are on apple and android products, giving them a larger
market share than android alone could ever have. The OS alone will not be
generating revenue.

~~~
OnorioCatenacci
I'm thinking about $1.3 Billion or so in 2012.

[http://www.talkandroid.com/29769-googles-android-os-could-
br...](http://www.talkandroid.com/29769-googles-android-os-could-bring-
in-1-3-billion-in-mobile-ads-in-2012/)

~~~
xnerdr
Also, I will add, nearly every article you read on Hacker news is a blog post
on the submittors own blog. Is their something wrong with doing this?

If you found it so terrible, why did you continue reading for a whole 5
minutes and not stop after 1, clearly it must have had some value.

Google makes the vast majority of its current revenue from search and email,
not from Android. $1.3 billion is projected and is about 3% of $32 billion a
year revenue, the vast majority of which comes from search.
<http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GOOG>

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AndrewDucker
Facebook message cannot replace email until I can contact people who are not
on Facebook through it.

I do not want to have a social connection to everyone I exchange messages
with. I swap occasional emails with workmates, but that doesn't mean that I
want to see their every move in my status updates.

~~~
xnerdr
It would be a trivial addition to the Facebook network to allow outside email
exchanges. What I was trying to get across in the article was how Facebook is
just 1 step away from directly challenging Google in email and search. Two of
the biggest areas of revenue for Google. They have the purpose (money) and
they have the ability. I think they're going to do it sooner than anyone
expects.

~~~
junklight
yes but your trivial "1 step" is actually - build a world class, global scale
search engine that is at least as good as googles. There is no sign whatsoever
that they are even trying - search in facebook is pretty basic IMO and
frequently fails to find stuff I have found before using the same keywords

If they build a space ship, something that they are also "1 step" away from
doing they can eat Virgins lunch too!

~~~
xnerdr
Sorry, I meant the email functionality is 1 step and trivial, since they
already have an inbox system in place. The search would be much more difficult
to do well of course, but i'd suggest a recommendation based search (like
Google +1) could be up and running within a year quite easily given their
resources.

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cafard
He forgot to mention that Facebook also has an Oscar-nominated movie about it.
Match that, Google!

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eitland
This has been predicted a few times before. Just saying.

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suking
Facebooks ads ARE NOT higher quality than google. First off, adwords gets an
order of magnitude more clicks (CTR). These people are buyers, looking for
something, not trying to post comments on their friend's photos. Second, the
people who do click on facebook ads are much lower quality. From our data,
google users convert ~2.7X more than facebook users and the price difference
in CPA does not make up for that difference.

~~~
xnerdr
I've found the opposite case when advertising my app on both networks.
Conversions were about the same, but cost per click was about 4x on google.
Its a $4.99 one off payment app, so its possible different revenue models find
one or the other better for their use.

~~~
suking
To be fair we are not an app and are targeting a demo 35+, so that could be an
issue... We are also doing some decent volume (few K+/day on both), if we were
doing a coule hundred $/day I'm sure we could get FB working as well, but
finding it VERY hard on large volume. Not to mention banner blindness sets in
after a few days on FB so we are constantly changing ads.

