
Show HN: 70% of startup ideas suck. Yours doesn't have to. Alpha testers wanted - phalox
https://validator.phalox.be/?pk_campaign=launch&pk_source=hn_show
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gitgud
_70% of startup ideas suck._

Is there anything to support that claim? ... why not 99%

~~~
phalox
The failure of startup ideas is probably one of the toughest to quantify:
Failed ideas probably didn't result into a registered business. Articles on
the internet all seem to refer to a paper from 2011
([http://gallery.mailchimp.com/8c534f3b5ad611c0ff8aeccd5/files...](http://gallery.mailchimp.com/8c534f3b5ad611c0ff8aeccd5/files/Startup_Genome_Report_Extra_Premature_Scaling_version_2.1.pdf))
that claims that 72% of intellectual property is not a competitive advantage.

This article ([https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilpatel/2015/01/16/90-of-
star...](https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilpatel/2015/01/16/90-of-startups-
will-fail-heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-10/)) claims that 42% of
startups fail because there's no market demand. Which doesn't include startups
that found market demand, but didn't offer what the market needed (e.g. market
values the offer but doesn't (or too little) want to pay for it). For failed
startups in general, this article mentions a failure rate of 90%, but the
reasons are diverse.

As I'm focusing on the validation (and some ideation) phase, the first metric
made the most sense. Thanks for being critical!

------
stallmanite
Looks interesting. How does it work under the covers? Do you have an army of
testers of various demographics?

~~~
phalox
I'm so happy you're asking! As a good entrepreneur/product manager, I start by
validating the idea with the most minimum viable product possible.

For a service like this, I can simply use the 'concierge MVP'
([https://www.shortform.com/blog/concierge-
mvp/](https://www.shortform.com/blog/concierge-mvp/)). So you're not far of:
Rather than an army, it's me myself and I. Another common strategy is to do
things that don't scale (and this most definitely won't scale). If it turns
out to be a success I can define with the customers which features will be
implemented first, and which will remain a 'concierge' service. The technical
risk will need to be tackled next when there is market demand.

For early adopters, that pretty much means they're getting a personal coach
for near to nothing.

If I'm lucky to have customers, I have some ideas around converting chat bots
into virtual coaches, doing a bit of natural language processing (mainly to
get the sentiment) and some simpler text matching to make sure the target
customer, problem and solution match. Under the hood I'll need a process with
different branches for different businesses. The alpha stage is also meant to
further expand this process before implementing it in software.

(sidenote: Launching something is exciting, but also scary. I'm super happy
you wrote!)

~~~
julianu
Love the transparency and boldness. My personal opinion is that your service
sounds too good to be true so it makes me hesitate trying it out as there is a
time and emotional cost to trying it out.

~~~
phalox
This is great feedback, and I believe the solution is to be even more
transparent. I was thinking of adding some FAQ after the pricing to give
people some insight and increase the trust level.

So far, no conversions yet. I can only conclude that the current format is
indeed not the right one. Trust in the service can indeed be a problematic
one.

I'm going to individual approach now: Reach out to people on IndieHackers who
wrote about their idea, and browse around here (although, I think people will
be in a later stage).

I'll be sure to get back when I have an update! :)

