
Working remotely crossed the chasm today - AlexeyMK
http://alexeymk.com/2020/05/12/working-remotely-crossed-the-chasm-on-may-12-2C-2020.html
======
rofws
I had read a comment(that I completely agree with) from someone here on HN
(sorry I forgot the username), that the current WFH is working because
EVERYONE is working from home.

The moment half of the work force starts working from the office again, the
dynamics are going to change. Those offtopic, face to face chitchats you have
with your colleagues or boss hugely help your career growth. The WFH people
are going to miss out on that.

One positive that this crisis has created though, is all businesses and
institutions will take remote work seriously, and take the steps required to
make it possible, especially as another wave of COVID19 is expected.

~~~
ornornor
> Those offtopic, face to face chitchats you have with your colleagues or boss
> hugely help your career growth. The WFH people are going to miss out on
> that.

I suspect there is a non-trivial amount of people who don't care about that.
I've been writing software for a while now. I don't want to become team lead
or manager. I don't care for the drama. I just want to do my job, get paid,
and go home.

In that case, WFH is perfect.

~~~
oblio
Yeah, but you'll be lower on the social ladder. If your boss needs to fire 1
person in your team, you will be the first to go.

(I find it amusing that this was downvoted when it's basically an axiom :-) )

~~~
mpweiher
First sentence of post you're replying to:

>I suspect there is a non-trivial amount of people who don't care about that

~~~
oblio
And the third sentences says:

> I just want to do my job, get paid, and go home.

Hard to get paid if you get fired...

~~~
ornornor
Right. Luckily you can find work elsewhere after being laid off.

~~~
oblio
Have you been checking the unemployment rates recently?

~~~
rorykoehler
Developers are in the 1%. A good dev is always going to find work, at least
for the foreseeable future. There is a huge scramble to snap up newly
redundant talent now. I had a dev who lost their job reject a job offer today
because another company got there first. I know what job he took but he
doesn't know I know so it's not like he said it to soften the rejection.

~~~
subhobroto
> There is a huge scramble to snap up newly redundant talent now

Absolutely.

People are lowballing hard, trying to take advantage of the economy and are
surprised when their offers are rejected.

This is one of the reasons why!

------
solidasparagus
I'm unconvinced. The current WFH environment is not representative. It's only
been a couple of months so the effects aren't fully understood and we are
still in the honeymoon period. More importantly everyone has to work from home
so there is no comparison between people who are WFH and those in the office -
when WFH goes back to being a choice, I think we'll remember all of the
frustrations remote workers had at non-fully remote companies.

~~~
techsupporter
> when WFH goes back to being a choice, I think we'll remember all of the
> frustrations remote workers had at non-fully remote companies

Yep, this is what I think happens. When the boss goes back to the office and
is annoyed that no one is around for meetings or when enough people on a team
or group decide that it’s just easier to “optionally” be back at work to have
hallway conversations...

Even saying “just come in on Thursdays for meetings” means the bulk of the
work-anywhere dream many of the threads on HN have on the front page simply
don’t materialize.

~~~
iso947
My 2nd level boss is delighted she’s getting 120 people in a weekly catch up
meeting to explain what’s going on across the department.

Normally the meeting is every month and only fits 50 people in the largest
meeting room

At the top they are concerned - the main office is at 10% capacity (some
things can’t be done from home - at least without 40g connections and large
custom workstations), and after 10 years of cramming more people in they’ve
realised offices cost money. They are looking to extend wfh significantly.

~~~
sq_
Do you think that the bigger meeting correlates with actual increased value
for everyone involved? Such a large meeting, especially via Zoom or something
similar, seems like it would become disorganized _fast_.

~~~
Majestic121
There's meeting and meeting.

A meeting with one boss and 119 employees typically means 1 way communication
Boss -> employee, with questions at the end, so that's easy to keep organized,
Zoom or not.

You can even type your questions in the chat to be answered later, so it's
more organized in a way

------
mattlondon
> Presentation Final Final [2].pdf

Alexey - please make sure to use 'Copy of Presentation Final Final [2] (Matt's
version) (Copy).pdf' going forward. Presentation Final Final [2].pdf is out of
date.

Thx.

~~~
palsir
And there are solutions to this. From what I understand (which isn't very
much), the SolidWorks (a 3d CAD tool) team has their own version control
system, called PDM, which works with the Microsoft office suite.

next is organizations getting over the hurdle of educating people how to use
version control.

Also - I think the current generation of office stores everything in XML,
which can then be processed through git, svn, etc.

~~~
hemogloben
I thought this about Eagle's[1] project storage switching to XML; I figured it
would allow us to store projects and libraries in git and easily branch /
merge changes etc.

It was a nightmare. XML does not work well in git.[2] I even thought I could
resolve some of the issues by sorting elements so they'd be in a consistent
order, but none of the elements had guuids or anything to allow me to do that.

1: [http://dangerousprototypes.com/blog/2010/10/14/eagle-open-
xm...](http://dangerousprototypes.com/blog/2010/10/14/eagle-open-xml-format-
for-schematics-pcbs/)

2: [https://blog.joepairman.com/2016/11/26/xml-in-git-
mercurial-...](https://blog.joepairman.com/2016/11/26/xml-in-git-mercurial-
watch-out-for-merges/)

~~~
palsir
Ah, good to know.

I have had that thought in the back of my head for a little while with my own
eagle projects, thanks for making the mistake for me!

------
dougmwne
I understand the impulse to believe this is all temporary and that the
extroverts who lead our companies will get us all back into the open office as
soon as they can. Consider a financial reality. There is likely to be a
terrible recession over the next few years. There will be layoffs and
bankruptcies. Office space is hugely expensive. Some competitors are going to
choose not to renew office space or to downsize their offices as this crisis
drags on. And your company will have to compete with those companies who have
cut costs without loosing efficiency.

We are living through a black swan event, so it's a healthy exercise to forget
everything you think you know about how the world works. I don't know how this
is going to play out.

~~~
rubber_duck
>Office space is hugely expensive.

Not in a recession

~~~
mynegation
It is expensive to _someone_ all the time. If not to the tenant then to the
owner: taxes, heating, HVAC, preventive maintenance, cleaning, security need
to continue - filled or empty.

------
supernintendo
> _Techies have been leaving San Francisco for cities like Portland, Austin,
> Denver and Seattle (PADS) for over a decade. We seek a place to settle down
> and improve cost-to-quality-of-life ratio._

As someone born in a small North Carolina town into poverty who has lived in
Portland for close to a decade, this is both hilarious and depressing.

Bay Area tech folks are really suffering from some sort of economic Stockholm
Syndrome. I’d love to see what would happen if one were to move from San
Francisco to a city like Chiang Mai, Thailand. It can’t be much different than
winning the lottery.

~~~
AlexeyMK
We did that for about a month in 2015; made it for Songkran. It was pretty
great. Frustrating with time zones and car pollution, but otherwise solid.
Ristr8to remains a favorite.

~~~
supernintendo
As far as I know the air pollution in Thailand is largely attributed to forest
fires rather than vehicle emissions [0]. Funny enough, this also seems to be
the case for Portland, Oregon [1].

[0] [https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/05/07/northern-
tha...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/05/07/northern-thailand-was-
once-paradise-now-forest-fires-have-made-air-worse-than-beijings/)

[1] [https://www.kgw.com/mobile/article/weather/air-
quality/portl...](https://www.kgw.com/mobile/article/weather/air-
quality/portlands-air-quality-second-worst-among-major-cities-
worldwide/283-586223379)

~~~
CalRobert
"Car Pollution" may be a term for encompassing all the negative externalities
caused by cars near people. Crash risk, reduced walkability and cyclability,
noise pollution, increased sedentism, higher housing costs (due to parking
minimums, car-friendly zoning,) etc.

For instance, I'd love to let my kid ride a bike to school. I don't because of
cars (well, drivers, really). That's a form of pollution, in a sense.

------
joelbluminator
Hmm a decade or two? IDK, could be way sooner. If Corona comes back at the
fall (this time accompanied by regular influenza) there's just not much choice
I think. When this is all over all companies will have experience in running
things remote for a year or two. It could be there'll still be an office but
50% of the personnel is remote. We'll see what happens, but I don't think this
is gonna take 20 years.

~~~
AlexeyMK
Agreed that tech companies will make the switch a lot sooner. What about a GE-
types, though?

Also, I'm generally bearish on remote-friendly or half-remote. Either the
culture is set up for it, or it isn't. You can't be just a little bit
pregnant.

~~~
neogodless
I think the variety of companies that exist is greater than your breadth of
experience. Within a narrow scope there may be cases where all-remote is
clearly superior to partially-remote, but I strongly suspect in the vast world
of business, many other models can work well.

The analogy also doesn't work.

Perhaps imagine a party where some people enjoy cramming onto sofas playing
games, others stand around the kitchen retelling stories, some sit spaced
around a fire staring into the flames, and yet others stand far out in the
open yard, tossing a ball back and forth. Everyone is part of the party,
interacting in the way that works best for them, and if it ever makes sense to
move to another part of the party, they will do so.

~~~
sokoloff
At a party, everyone is roughly equal. At work, that’s not the case. If the
guest of honor (the boss) is standing around the kitchen telling stories and
you’re out in the yard tossing the ball around, you’re not really at the same
party in a way that probably matters for a work analog.

------
rewoi
WFH is now mainstream. In past everyone had to love noisy open plane office,
and sacrifice two weeks of holiday to flu every year. Now there is a solid
argument for alternative.

~~~
dbancajas
aren't sick days separate from paid holidays?

------
amaajemyfren
I think another interesting data point demonstrating progress in this is the
fact that the US Supreme Court can now receive requests, vote to listen to
them, receive pleadings and also listening to oral arguments remotely.

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBrzxt7l7q4](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBrzxt7l7q4)

------
ForHackernews
> It’ll retain a “city emeritus” status, like London, Philadelphia or Palo
> Alto.

Unless this means London, Ontario, it's unintentionally hilarious that this
guy considers Europe's largest city and financial capital to be a has-been
'city emeritus'.

It goes along with the idea that because some microblogging website is
allowing remote work, that suddenly the idea is mainstream.

For an industry that claims to think big, the tech startup world is
surprisingly small and insular.

~~~
Nasrudith
London is still big in finance post Brexit? I thought the arrangements were
already made on the continent because of it.

~~~
tialaramex
Ha, "post Brexit". Despite all the celebrations by idiots there are still
months and most likely years more Brexit to go.

For now nothing actually changes, British citizens are still EU citizens, a
London bank is still an EU bank.

In principle the country is "rapidly" negotiating a long term arrangement on
everything for completing by the end of the year. This hypothetical "deal"
would set up the relationship from 2021 onwards.

In practice there are two schools of thought. Maybe the intent is to get to
the end of the year and accuse the EU of having somehow failed to achieve a
deal (even though the EU was always clear that would take much more than a
year) then break off with no relationship and suffer a huge economic down turn
as a result. Maybe somehow that works politically? It's hard to see how, but
it's not as though Brexit made sense anyway.

Or maybe the idea is to build up the tension and then announce we've belatedly
discovered that it isn't possible to finish the deal immediately and so we'd
like an extra say, two years to finish making a deal, kicking the can down the
road. Who knows.

~~~
joshuahughes
> British citizens are still EU citizens

The UK actually left the EU on January 31st, 2020. We're still 'Europeans'
(inhabitants of the continent of Europe) but no longer EU citizens.

~~~
tialaramex
My mistake.

You're correct, British citizens are no longer EU citizens (though there are
court cases that dispute this) but all the freedoms they had as EU citizens
continue until transition ends (currently supposedly at the end of 2020).

------
jerzyt
I don't think you can institutionalize remote work. The team has to gel. I've
worked with extremely efficient and motivated team, where we basically
communicated through Skype and chat. We met at the office once a week. Best
job I've ever had.

And I've also worked on a completely disjointed and disfunctional remote team.

Only the team can make it work, not any mandate from above.

~~~
mpweiher
You can have dysfunctional/well-functioning remote/in-office teams. And you're
right it is the team that has to gel and make things work.

It just applies just as much to in-office as remote.

------
tanilama
I would not predict future for that far.

I am imagining a world where coming to office everyday isn't a requirement.
And it is probably going to be true.

However, I am not sure WFH will become the NORM. I definitely feels that my
co-workers close to their manager gets more attention and thus their career
tracks faster.

All need to be put under perspective.

~~~
phillc73
I've been having similar thoughts. The company I work for already had a
general policy that working remotely one day a week was fine, provided
permission was granted by the relevant line manager. This day was primarily to
be used for focusing on writing papers (company is positioned in the grey
ground between commercial and academic worlds).

However, over the last three months with everyone remote, all the time, it's
worked generally well, apart from when access to the labs or R&D plant was
required.

I've been missing some of the face to face interactions, and meeting in person
can move some discussions forward quicker. My volume of email has dramatically
increased.

In the future, I can see two or three days per week remote working being
completely plausible and healthy for productive work. A couple of days per
week in the office will still be useful for access to specialist equipment,
personal networking and team building.

------
zuhayeer
I always felt that remote work would eventually come. I've seen it in how my
friends would slowly converge to 2-3 days wfh a few months after graduating
and starting a job. It seems like adoption has just been accelerated by
circumstance now. People are realizing that they can do everything they need
to do at home within 2-3 hours.

The most attractive part of the office are the water cooler conversations and
social activities completely unrelated to work. And that's why I still think
there's a place for shared workspaces. Companies will shrink their large
centralized headquarters and start building satellite presences. No need to
fit everyone into one big mega-campus.

------
gotocode20
I think the increasing openness towards remote work is certainly encouraging,
but it still seems a bit too early to conclude that these companies will
consider going fully remote to be sustainable in the long run.

As the author notes, once companies figure out a streamlined and scalable way
of onboarding and supporting a remote-first workforce, we should see much
greater adoption of this approach.

~~~
myspy
The hard part is doing everything written down instead of talking about it
over the desk. And a lot of people hate writing.

Also chat tools are causing huge distractions and work needs to be better
organised than that.

------
rcpt
Outside of The Bay are people really excited about leaving?

It sucks here with the NIMBYs, the boring endless sprawl, the high taxes and
bad public services, and the insane housing costs. But I've always thought
people were generally happy about living in NYC, Seattle, Boulder, and Austin.
(Though of those cities I've only lived in New York)

~~~
credit_guy
> generally happy about living in NYC

NYC has insane housing costs too. And high taxes. The public schools are hit
and miss. Some are really good, but most not.

~~~
rcpt
NYC is much more affordable if you're willing to commute from Queens - you can
get a two bedroom near Jackson Heights for under $300k and still take the
train to work in Manhattan.

If you want to live in Manhattan you pay a lot but it at least feels like
you're getting something in return by being walking distance to the cultural,
financial, and media capital of the world.

The Bay is nearly as expensive as Manhattan but for the most part it's
indistinguishable from any random suburb in Florida or Texas or wherever.
Lawns, Costcos, car dealerships - really not worth $4k a month.

------
yosito
I've been working remotely as a programmer for 7 years, but I still find that
even in the current situation, a lot of companies insist that once the current
crisis is over, they NEED people on-site. I'm still waiting, and hoping, for
the fabled "remote work is the norm".

~~~
vladvasiliu
I think the problem with those companies is that they used to think they
"NEEDED" the people on site, so they never bothered to setup a culture of
written and asynchronous communication. So when the current crisis pushed them
to WFH they were completely unprepared for it. Of course when this will be
over they'll want people back on site: "See how terrible WFH was? We need to
have people on-site working face to face"

~~~
eequah9L
Curiously this "must be on site" mentality seems to be ripe even in some
companies that have many offices, and people are de facto remote relative to
each other anyway. Getting a "you know, I'm not sure this remote thing can
work" from an architect that spends about half of his time on the phone just
makes you go "what?" Dude's so busy calling everywhere that he's difficult to
get hold of, but "remote can't work"?

My experience has been that few people drive to the other side of the campus
for a run of the mill chat or some random presentation. Unless it's in the
same building, and unless it's something important, you just call, mail, chat,
send office365 links, do skype presentations... you know, the remote stuff. So
above a certain size, it's in the company's best interest to embrace
remoteness anyway.

------
AzzieElbab
There are tones of office buildings companies use to refinance themselves.
There will be consequences when these buildings decline in value

------
purplezooey
_Techies have been leaving San Francisco for cities ... for over a decade._

Not so much true if you look at the numbers. It's more just additional growth
in the other areas.

------
rorykoehler
I feel like we crossed the chasm in the past and regressed back over it.

~~~
cableshaft
If we didn't cross it, we got pretty close. Thanks, Marissa Mayer for
resetting the clock on that one. /s

~~~
sokoloff
It’s not like Yahoo was killing it and she somehow snatched defeat from the
jaws of victory. They were being comically left behind and at one point I
believe their investment in Alibaba was worth more than the entirety of Yahoo
(meaning the company itself had a negative intrinsic value).

------
bluedays
This honestly sounds like my worst nightmare.

------
will_raw
> From Github to DuckDuckGo, remote-first successful businesses are no longer
> rare.

Github or Gitlab?

~~~
AlexeyMK
Both? Github, originally, Gitlab, more recently.

------
zaphirplane
Suxs to be weWork

~~~
zhte415
It does suck to be WeWork, but perhaps not for co-working spaces.

Reasoning:

Acceptance of remote working, or at least not coming to the office, is
boosted. But not everyone can work comfortably at home: Distractions,
discipline. So a local co-working place nearby becomes attractive.

There's no WeWork where I live but there is a local library and (before
lockdowns) it's packed throughout the day with people studying or on their
laptops.

Upside: Free. Downside: No possibility for calls or video.

I'm pretty confident that ultra-local co-location working facilities could
take advantage of demand for people that don't want to work at home but also
don't want a commute.

It could be as simple as a house in a neighbourhood with solid internet, a few
extra tables, the kitchen's already there, and a few bedrooms converted to
private areas for video conference. Perhaps a good franchise model. I'd be on-
board as a user.

Ten other people in a 2000sqft house would fund it pretty easily: Zoning and
an SLA on the internet connection seem to be the only hurdles.

Edit: Thinking about it, I have friends that do this already informally by
renting a cheap apartment.

