

A Contradiction at the Heart of the U.S. Economy - gordon_freeman
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/22/upshot/is-the-economic-outlook-great-or-lousy-making-sense-of-markets-mixed-messages.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&abt=0002&abg=0

======
lotsofmangos
No real contradiction, the middle is in recession, while the economy at the
very top and at the very bottom is in growth.

Jobs are being created, but a hell of a lot of them are the jobs that were
still being done on behalf of US companies but were shipped overseas due to it
being cheaper.

These jobs are not so much being created but are just being moved back now
that other economies have grown, which should be good for the poorer sections
of the US.

However the middle is being squeezed so you have well qualified people
competing with the less qualified for the lower paid positions that would not
previously have required many qualifications.

I strongly suspect (though given I am making a prediction about economics,
full caveats apply) that the real story of the economy isn't so much that it
is going into a period of recession or growth, it is more that it is becoming
structurally unstable.

Not everything is a simple rise or fall in temperature. Some things are phase
changes.

edit - Another thing to consider is that the banks are currently sitting on
massive reserves that are maybe six times larger than normal. As soon as the
interest rate is allowed to tick upward, the banks will plough that money into
things, but while rates are low they can make more money by gambling. However,
when that interest rate ticks upward, you will suddenly see a lot of land slip
into negative-equity. This will temporarily destroy much of the house sales
market while at the same time putting a lot of land going cheap at auction,
meaning that the banks will put that money into new-build as that will bring
more profit, so there should be a massive construction boom, while those in
the middle who rely on being property owners will see their wealth diluted
further. Maybe.

