
Supervolcano Campi Flegrei Stirs Under Naples Italy - cadlin
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/12/supervolcano-campi-flegrei-stirs-under-naples-italy/
======
camillomiller
Campi Flegrei doesn't mean "burning fields" _in Italian_ , as the author
suggests.

Campi is literally "fields". We have that a lot for city/town/village names
(e.g. Campi Bisenzio, close to Florence). When used for the name of a place, I
would just suggest maybe 'meadows' as a better translation.

Flegreo (pl. -i), on the other hand, exists as an adjective solely to describe
someone or something "from the area West of Neaples known as Campi Flegrei".

The etymology is of course related to the volcanic activity and has to do with
burning. φλέγω (phlego) in Ancient Greek meant "to burn". In Latin the verb
was Flagro.

In Italian we still have these words in use:

\- "deflagrazione" (it's similar to the English deflagration, but with a
broader meaning of "explosion"; it's normally used as a synonym)

\- "flagrante". Literally "burning", but the common meaning is "evident" or
"in the act", as in "colto in flagrante", "caught in the act", "caught red-
handed".

The greek root, turned to "flog-", is still to be found in some specific
terms, especially in medical literature. Flogistico, for example. You have
that in English, and it's even more recognizable, thanks to the "ph":
phlogistic. It means inflammatory, causing a burning sensation.

~~~
non_repro_blue
So, an English corrolary for a similarly named fictitious zone in Hawaii might
be?

    
    
      Flamablish Fields

------
f_allwein
As Michio Kaku said, "Any advanced civilization must grow in energy
consumption faster than the frequency of life-threatening catastrophes (e.g.
meteor impacts, ice ages, supernovas, etc.). If they grow any slower, they are
doomed to extinction." ( [http://mkaku.org/home/articles/the-physics-of-
extraterrestri...](http://mkaku.org/home/articles/the-physics-of-
extraterrestrial-civilizations/) ).

Any guesses how far we are from being able to control volcanoes so that they
would not pose a threat? Too far, I would guess.

~~~
adrianN
I don't think we have actually tried anything like that, but people have
thought about the problem. Possible engineering avenues include drilling
relief holes to reduce pressure, siphoning heat with geothermal energy plants
and inducing eruptions using explosives. It seems like making volcanoes safer
is doable with concentrated research effort, but currently nobody wants to pay
for it. I guess that'll change after Naples is destroyed.

~~~
marcosdumay
It should be possible to make siphoning the heat away lucrative, instead of an
expense.

I really don't know how much heat we are talking about (still, I don't think
migrating all aluminum plants into above the supervolcanos would be enough),
but it is not the kind of thing we should count as expense.

------
kchoudhu
Do scientists still make predictions in Italy? Getting things wrong there
is...dangerous.

[http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2014/11/updated-appeals-
court...](http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2014/11/updated-appeals-court-
overturns-manslaughter-convictions-six-earthquake-scientists)

~~~
pmontra
By the way, the scientists eventually got acquitted. Italian link
[http://www.wired.it/attualita/ambiente/2015/11/23/terremoto-...](http://www.wired.it/attualita/ambiente/2015/11/23/terremoto-
aquila-scienziati-assolti/)

According to the prosecutor their fault was reassuring people that nothing bad
was going to happen, that is negligence in performing the risk analysis.

------
ChuckMcM
_" There will be another supervolcano explosion," scientist James Quick, a
geologist at Southern Methodist University in Texas, said in a statement when
that volcano was found._

When this happens it is going to immediately change world climate to something
very much colder than it is now. It suggests to me that some sort of
preparation for surviving in very different climatic conditions than the one
we currently experience would be a good investment in time and resources. That
said, I'm not entirely sure how we might plan something like that.

~~~
thesmallestcat
It wouldn't be anything new:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer)

A more serious situation would be more than one eruption, or a sequence of
eruptions to sustain the effects:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_weather_events_of_535%...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_weather_events_of_535%E2%80%93536)

~~~
chakalakasp
Well, the last time this caldera really went it was twice the size of Tambora,
so it'd probably be several years of impact.

------
kfk
I visited the vulcano few weeks ago, it doesn't look that dangerous when you
are on the crater, but then if you visit Pompei and Ercolano, well it's scary.
The eruption of 79 AD pretty much destroyed the city, fossilized corpses are
still visible in the archeological site.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eruption_of_Mount_Vesuvius_in_...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eruption_of_Mount_Vesuvius_in_79)

Naples is the urban area with the highest density in Europe. An eruption of
Vesuvio would likely kill at least 1-2 million of people and bring Italy and
Europe to total economic collapse.

If we could for once think logically and stop all the culture/tradition crap,
we would migrate people out of this area. The Balkans are huge and deserted,
with lots of areas with similar climate. Spain comes to mind too. Or even
Italy itself.

Obviously, the problem here is always the same. You have lots of people living
in the worst possible places, but then if something happens is the State
(hence tax payers) that have to re-build houses, pay for the emergency and so
on. This is a huge moral hazard.

------
smoyer
"A smaller but still sizable eruption was observed at the supervolcano in
1538. That event lasted eight days and created the mountain Monte Nuovo. But
since then, the volcano has been quiet, slumbering for more than 500 years."

I'm going to assume it's 1538 AD and that this volcano has slumbered _almost_
500 years. And if create a "new mountain" was enough to relieve the pressure
then, how do they distinguish a major eruption from a minor one when
performing these forecasts?

~~~
JoeAltmaier
A seven-mile caldera would surely be a 'major eruption'. Lots of distance
between a small mountain (439 ft tall, isn't that a hill?) and a large volcano
(Vesuvius is for instance the size of Naples).

~~~
chakalakasp
I think what he's asking is how one would know whether the entire caldera was
at risk or whether there was just a risk of a small eruption, such as in the
16th century. I'm guessing the answer is that "they don't".

------
JoeAltmaier
Alternate title: "Supervolcano continues to exist near Naples, as it has for
millennia"

~~~
chakalakasp
Did you read the paper? The real news is the modeling and and the exponential
curves they are measuring. Something is happening and there are analogs to
compare it to.

------
jaclaz
Yet another example of a scientific paper bent to satisfy sensationalism by
the press.

First paragraph: "A long-quiet yet huge supervolcano that lies under 500,000
people in Italy may be waking up and approaching a "critical state,"
scientists report this week in the journal Nature Communications."

In the actual article:

"The scientists caution that it's possible nothing will happen in our
lifetimes. They say it's impossible to say with any certainty when an eruption
might actually take place. More monitoring and study are needed, they say."

And of course this:

"There will be another supervolcano explosion," scientist James Quick, a
geologist at Southern Methodist University in Texas, said in a statement when
that volcano was found.

"We don't know where, [but] Sesia Valley could help us to predict the next
event."

is more like a Nostradamus prophecy, something will soon (before or later)
happen somewhere ...

~~~
thesmallestcat
It's cool here to deride pop science articles as sensationalist hooey, but
this is actual news. The volcano appears more active and scientists are
legitimately worried.

[http://phys.org/news/2016-07-gas-ground-bay-naples-
volcano.h...](http://phys.org/news/2016-07-gas-ground-bay-naples-volcano.html)

[http://phys.org/news/2016-12-naples-astride-rumbling-mega-
vo...](http://phys.org/news/2016-12-naples-astride-rumbling-mega-volcano.html)

~~~
jaclaz
It's not about deriding the actual science article (that has all the dignity a
science paper should have) it is about the sensationalism around that.

If you read the actual paper:

[http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms13712](http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms13712)

you will see how there is nothing "urgent" or "immediate" or even "soon to be
expected", the scientist created a model that seemingly shows that eventually
an eruption may happen, but without any clue if it will happen and more than
that when it will happen:

"Caution is therefore prudent when forecasting the future mid- to short-term
evolution of any period of unrest. Even if the magma underneath CFc is likely
to be approaching the CDP, the possible future scenarios can be complicated by
additional processes that have not been considered here. For example,
increases in the melt liquidus due to H2O release and consequent magma
crystallization could increase the melt viscosity, and therefore act against
further magma migration. Additional careful scrutiny of monitoring data in the
coming months and years is key to interpreting whether hydrothermal heating or
magma quenching will prevail."

And as well in one of the two articles you posted:

"This is apparently better news, at least for now; activity in which magma
moves upward and accumulates tends to be associated with an increased chance
of an eruption. However the change from hydrothermal to magmatic activity can
take place at any time, so we're not in a position to say that everything is
well under the Campi Flegrei. The Campi Flegrei is still a very volatile
place. What it does show is the difficulty in interpreting the data, even from
one of the most-studied volcanic areas in the world. Reconciling all of the
data is a major issue, despite our efforts."

The Vesuvio and the Campi Flegrei are anyway monitored:
[http://www.ov.ingv.it/ov/it/vesuvio/statoattualevesuvio.html](http://www.ov.ingv.it/ov/it/vesuvio/statoattualevesuvio.html)

The institute publishes weekly and monthly reports:

[http://www.ov.ingv.it/ov/it/campi-
flegrei/monitoraggio/272-c...](http://www.ov.ingv.it/ov/it/campi-
flegrei/monitoraggio/272-campi-flegrei-bollettini-settimanali.html)

[http://www.ov.ingv.it/ov/it/campi-flegrei/attivita-
recente/2...](http://www.ov.ingv.it/ov/it/campi-flegrei/attivita-
recente/275.html)

The whole area is "at risk" of course, and it is very likely that something
may happen, but whether it will be an earthquake (a major one, as minor ones
are daily) or an eruption and when it may happen is something noone can say.

~~~
marcosdumay
Relvant XKCD: [https://xkcd.com/1159/](https://xkcd.com/1159/)

Turns out we got a peek at the rightmost digit previously covered by that
frame, and it's another zero.

Still, there are overwhelming odds that everything is just fine.

