
CO2 emissions from electricity generation in 2015 were lowest since 1993 - Osiris30
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=26232
======
nostromo
This is great news, but people should understand that this is largely being
driven by fracking, not renewables, so it's not without environmental
consequence.

(Fracking lowered the price of natural gas in the US tremendously, which has
made it more cost effective compared to coal.)

Also, as the US moves away from coal and towards natural gas, we haven't
exactly left our coal in the ground -- we've just increased exports so it is
consumed abroad.

~~~
catawbasam
US coal exports are dropping.

According to the EIA, we exported 97,256,746 tons in 2014 but only 73,957,888
tons in 2015, a drop of 24%

source:
[https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/pdf/t7p01p1.pd...](https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/pdf/t7p01p1.pdf)

~~~
toomuchtodo
China's coal imports have fallen off a cliff:

[http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/new-china-energy-data-
coal-i...](http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/new-china-energy-data-coal-imports-
down-a-further-10-30570)

[http://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-trade-coal-
idUS...](http://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-trade-coal-
idUSL3N14X1TC20160113)

[http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-13/china-
coal...](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-13/china-coal-imports-
crash-as-economy-slows-amid-clean-power-shift)

China is also going head long into renewables:

[http://cleantechnica.com/2016/03/06/china-renewable-
growth-s...](http://cleantechnica.com/2016/03/06/china-renewable-growth-soars-
fossil-fuel-use-declines/)

------
mikegioia
I think this is wonderful, but this chart [1] seems to indicate that the
decrease in coal use is really only replaced by the increase in natural gas.

Natural gas seems to release less CO2 than coal burning, but it would be much
nicer to see the nuclear and renewables climbing at a faster rate. Hopefully
the 2015->2025 trend is far better.

[1]
[http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2016.05.13/chart3.pn...](http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2016.05.13/chart3.png)

~~~
m0th87
Natural gas releases less CO2, but it releases more methane in the shipment
process, which is far more potent as a climate change agent than CO2.
Depending on which estimates you buy into on the amount of methane lost,
natural gas may be worse than coal for climate change.

~~~
adrianN
At least the Methane doesn't stay in the atmosphere for geological periods of
time.

~~~
cwal37
It's not quite that simple because the overall impact of an individual
compound relies on both its atmospheric residence time and infrared
absorption. This article[1] covers the basics.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_potential](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_potential)

~~~
Symmetry
That doesn't really contradict adrianN's point in any way. If you integrate
methane's heat retention over now to 100 years from now it still beats carbon
dioxide. That doesn't mean that if you integrate from 50 years from now until
100 years from now it would still win. Much less so if you look at a
geological time period in the future.

------
phaemon
Note that this is in the USA, not the world.

------
sliverstorm
_demand for electricity remained relatively flat over the previous decade._

To me, that might be the best news in the whole press release.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Aging population, efficiency, etc. Peak energy (consumption) has been reached
in the first world.

~~~
LrnByTeach
First world may have reached Peak energy for NOW .

I predict after 2025, once Self driving ELECTRIC Cars/trucks are Norm and
Industrial Robots make great strides with the New deep learning AI, resulting
in general purpose Industrial Robots to do jobs in Construction & Agriculture
etc.. Energy consumption going to increase at a RAPID rate.

On Kardashev Scale of Type I,II,III Civilizations, It is estimated "we Planet
Earth" will reach Type I status in 100–200 years.

The GOOD News is from NOW On, all the New Energy production is from Renewables
(mostly Solar )

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale)

The Kardashev scale is a method of measuring a civilization's level of
technological advancement, based on the amount of energy a civilization is
able to utilize.

~~~
toomuchtodo
I _only_ see energy use going up if we discover the ability to perform
molecular assembly. If that occurs, yeah, energy use would skyrocket, but it
would all hopefully be clean energy at that point.

Even if you were to replace everyone in manufacturing, construction, etc with
robotics, and replace all ICE vehicles with electric vehicles, you wouldn't
see an enormous increase in energy use.

The US DOE showed several years ago that almost 80% of vehicles could move
over to the electric grid with existing base load generation. I stand by my
previous statement that developed country energy consumption has peaked.

~~~
LrnByTeach
>almost 80% of vehicles could move over to the electric grid with existing
base load generation.

hmm... I am little surprised with that DOE math.

Avarage US Houldhold use 900 KWh per month as per link below. Electric car
takes a total of 425 KWh to re-charge per month ( based on 1000 miles driven
per month, see my own Nissan LEAF calc. below)

So by 2025-30 when USA Electric vehicles are 25% (of Total vehicles), USA grid
needs 12.5% increase in base load.

When 80% are EV, then US need 40% increase in base load.

\---- How much electricity does an American home use?
[https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=97&t=3](https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=97&t=3)

In 2014, the average annual electricity consumption for a U.S. residential
utility customer was 10,932 kilowatthours (kWh), an average of 911 kWh per
month. \----

Here is my household Electricity consumption monthly breakdown in Kwh (from my
Utility PG&E monthly bill) \- I drive Nissan LEAF 100% Electric car about 1000
miles per month ( typical US avg.)

Nissan LEAF re-charge* : 425 Kwh ( monthly total )

other household electrify: 400 Kwh ( I am low on household Kwh use, that is
why I took US Avg 900 Kwh in above Calc.)

* The fact that I re-charge Nissan LEAF only After 11 PM to get Off Peak rate of 11 cents Kwh, my Utility Bill show "Off Peak Kwh used in a month" , that is how I know exact KWh used for my Nissan LEAF re-charging.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Don't forget. Aging population. Seniors don't drive as much as working age
citizens. And the number of baby boomers retiring is the largest cohort in
history to move into that age range.

~~~
LrnByTeach
U.S. Population Projections: 2005-2050
[http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2008/02/11/us-population-
proj...](http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2008/02/11/us-population-
projections-2005-2050/)

If current trends continue, the population of the United States will rise to
438 million in 2050, from 296 million in 2005, and 82% of the increase will be
due to immigrants arriving from 2005 to 2050 and their U.S.-born descendants,
according to new projections developed by the Pew Research Center.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Your study is almost 10 years old.

[http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/07/americas...](http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/07/americas-
emigration-problem/309410/)

Combined with immigration greatly reduced, and the US fertility rate below
replacement rate (1.88 births/woman), we're on a shallow population decline,
not a rise.

~~~
LrnByTeach
@rgbrenner post below with US census data confirms US Population rise till
2050.

In my above post my calculation of required increase on US electric grid base
load is based on 'one CAR' per household which I just realized as wrong
calculation.

Based on the info. below US avg. Household size is 2.6 , then number of CARS
per household is at least 2.

so when 25% of cars are Electric Cars, you need 25% increase in utility
Electric base load, and for 80% EV cars you need 80% increase. That is
huge!!!!!!!!!!!!

@toomuchtodo , anyway It is good discussion. I am glad I digged all this info
in order to reply. Now it is crystal clear in head what are the US electric
grid increasing load needs for the next 20 years.

Hope our Policy makers and Politicians do this simple MATH and prepare with
more SOLAR future accordingly ..

[https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-
instant&ion=1&e...](https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-
instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=total%20number%20of%20households%20in%20usa)

# of Households: 133,957,180

# of people in a household: 2.6

