
Ask HN: Is a Recession Coming? - pearjuice
I know, hindsight is 20&#x2F;20 and nobody can look into the future but the media seems to be doubling down on this &quot;a recession is coming&quot;. Is it going too well with the economy? Or what is going on? There seem to be so many little signals and things being framed (remember when Deutsche Bank&#x27;s status was being covered 24&#x2F;7 a few weeks ago and now you barely hear a thing about it?) a certain way I don&#x27;t know what to believe anymore.<p>What&#x27;s your take?
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RaceWon
My take is The American Media is in bed with the Democratic Party, and will
say what they are told to, in an attempt to gain control and wrest our
freedoms away from us.

The whole recession spiel (which "amazingly" is reported by an array of
different companies, often using the same verbage--just like script which was
given to them) is obviously yet another make believe story.

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jf22
>which "amazingly" is reported by an array of different companies, often using
the same verbage

If the sun was turning purple, wouldn't an array of different companies use
the same verbiage to describe what was happening?

To me, this quote reads like you are assuming consensus means conspiracy.

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dr01d
The media are the same ones who brought us the Kardashians. Find and read some
books.

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rayshan
Not helpful when you're trying to grow/protect your savings to put your kids
through college.

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simplecomplex
Yes. There will be recessions and periods of growth. The economy is a chaotic
non deterministic system. It is never stable and is not predictable. It’s not
homogenous either. Some sectors grow while others contract.

When the next recession comes nobody knows. I think the worry is that when the
next haircut on stocks happens the Fed can’t stimulate the economy with
interest rates because they’re already zero bound. That could mean a long
recession and slow recovery, and possibly catastrophic considering that most
Americans choose to put all their retirement savings in the stock market.

Historically, there have been huge stock crashes periodically. You could wake
up tomorrow and see a 10-20% drop in stocks for multiple days. It’s happened
before.

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rayshan
Yes, a recession will happen. So will the post-recession recovery period. It’s
going to hurt. 98 out of 100 stocks during the 2008 Great Recession lost
people money. At the same time recessions don’t last long [1], and it’s a
great opportunity to buy, whether it’s stocks or homes.

I was just looking into the last recession, and I found that the market was
wrong, and overreacted about a lot of stocks during that time [2]. Even AIG,
the villain that caused the crash and was bailed out by the government, was
one of the top performers during the recovery.

Try to have a balanced approach - cash + defensive assets (like gold and
household staple stocks) + not selling all your stock.

[1] 2008 Great Recession: 1.5 years; 2000 dot com bubble: 8 months; early
1990s recession: 8 months

[2] [https://shan.io/writing/learnings-from-the-2008-great-
recess...](https://shan.io/writing/learnings-from-the-2008-great-
recession/#the-market-is-often-wrong-about-companies-during-a-recession)

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jklein11
Is a recession coming? Yes.

Will it be in the next 6 monthes, no. A recession is usually quantified by 2
quarters of negative growth.

Will it be in the next year? Maybe. Global economies have been slowing down
and so its possible.

Will there be one in the next 100 years. Yes. Here is a list of recessions
that have happened since the inception of the US
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_Unit...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States).
People are humans and make mistakes. Sometimes the things we thought would
help to make the economy grow actually make it shrink.

Unless you are interested in being involved in public policy, there isn't much
to be concerned with here. All you can do is find something you enjoy doing
that makes people better off. Keep doing it until you master it. If you do
these things it won't matter if the pundits on TV are saying that the world is
ending, you will be alright.

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srijanshetty
The economy has a track record of being cyclical, so if you ask a question
whether a recession is coming on any day the answer would be - 'Yes,
eventually'. But recessions correct themselves and after every recession we've
seen growth cycle which takes the economy to new heights.

The only recourse humans have is to continue with their lives without paying
heed to what's in vogue in the news cycle.

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banjo_milkman
Calculated Risk has a good record on these calls... really. He says not this
year. [https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019/09/update-
predicting...](https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019/09/update-predicting-
next-recession.html)

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rvz
Well in terms of the tech industry, there is a on going trend that many
unprofitable tech companies are rushing their IPOs everywhere on the stock
market and this is perhaps due to many possible actions such as tech
regulation or many investors won't fund startups because of the established
competition, profitability concerns, etc.

The uncertainty of the US-China trade war is making many investors concerned
about the economy and the UK is still playing Deal or No Deal with leaving the
EU after 3 years of 'negotiations'. If the UK leaves without a deal, I won't
be surprised if this causes a recession, at least in the UK. But the trade
war, the IPO rush and possible regulation is perhaps an indicator of a global
one in the tech industry.

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richardknop
Recessions come and go but it's good to remember that historically not all
recessions are like great recessions in 2007/2008.

Normal recessions can happen and if there is no systemic risk such as with
mortgages in 2008 then the impact is not so catastrophic.

Unemployment will go up, GDP will probably slip into negative number for 2-3
quarters, companies stop hiring / fire some people, government probably reacts
with some fiscal stimulus.

But it might be that a normal recession like that won't affect most people
here working in Silicon Valley at all as those jobs probably won't disappear
and companies like Google/Facebook will not be affected by recession too much.

~~~
ezekg
Not everybody on HN is in Silicon Valley, just FYI.

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ohiovr
If a recession is not coming (ever?) then the economically impossible has been
achieved. Never a bad idea to sock away a little money before it rains.

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streetcat1
No. We are in a negative interest rate regime (never happened before), and in
the beginning of the fourth industrial revolution (never happened before).

The best indicator for a recession is the stock market, all the rest are
clickbait news for eyeballs.

I firmly believe that tech would actually not enter a recession at all, since
it is the only part of the economy that is growing.

~~~
racino84
All these things have happened before: Negative interest rates, 'the next'
industrial revolution, quantitative easing - both in fiat and metal backed
regimes.

Nothing new, not a single thing.

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strangattractor
What exactly is going well? 3 years ago the economy was growing - jobs where
increasing rapidly - farmers where selling soybeans - the military was
building new housing and schools for troop's families which translates into
local jobs. The debt was large from fighting a major recession but flattening.
Now - our debt is accelerating (tax cuts), yields keep inverting (10yr at a
higher percentage than 30 yr). The stock market has been a roller coaster
since 2018 as changes in gov't policy started to take hold. Job creation flat
and will most likely turn negative. Don't listen to the media - learn to read
the numbers yourself.

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racino84
So soybeans aside... the same thing as 3 years ago?

