

An Educational Extinction Event? - dangoldin
http://rjlipton.wordpress.com/2010/01/29/an-educational-extinction-event/

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swombat
This is a plausible proposition. As the author argues in the article, most of
the functions of universities can be covered more efficiently and more cheaply
online. For example, lectures are obsolete. You only need a handful of really
awesome lecturers on each topic to keep the entire world supplied with fresh
and exciting undergraduate lectures. Currently, every university has its own
set of lecturers, even for basic things.

It used to be that Higher Education was not something that everyone did. I
think that top universities need to migrate back into that space. It could,
and maybe should be that students will self-teach (using online resources)
undergraduate materials that are essential to "have a degree" and only then
join a University if they really want to continue their study of this subject.
This will also allow people to progress at whatever pace they're comfortable
with, rather than being forced to slow down or speed up to the pace of a
specific university.

Undergraduate degrees have basically become a job requirement, something
everyone has or should have, when they used to be something that only the
elite would have. It's hard to reverse this process, but maybe top
universities can retreat one stage further and let the lesser universities
fight for the scraps of the undergraduate world.

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Fixnum
Here's another important function of universities: they don't merely provide a
good environment for but _legitimize_ taking 4 years out of the workforce and
immersing oneself in philosophy, English, mathematics, alcohol, or whatnot.
This is probably due to things like the prestige of getting into various
schools in the first place, the perception that going away to school makes you
more responsible, that it provides a better learning environment than studying
at home by yourself, and that you're forced to work at some minimal pace.

Arguably, self-study of undergraduate materials might become the new norm, but
until it's feasible for students to really immerse themselves in scholarship
over a long period and come out with comparable results to Ivy schools, these
institutions don't need to change regardless of progress in the quality of
online learning materials and networks. This is really just another form of
'credentialism': until you can actually get an online _certification_ from
MIT, not just taking their courses, society (including employers and
financiers) won't be very accepting of this. And, of course, given the way the
job market is heading for those without university degrees, one would be wise
to try borrowing against the cost of a 'good' education rather than trying to
work part-time and study over a longer period.

So we are still stuck with the 'credentialism' problem until a new MIT appears
and starts administering really tough exams, free of courses ... or something
...

~~~
jrp
> you're forced to work at some minimal pace.

Many of the comments here are advocating self-study. I would suggest that an
important part of universities (online or traditional) is that you are
rewarded and punished according to your output. I feel ashamed to admit it,
but I work harder under external motivation. For people like me it's worth
paying a university, so I will work hard.

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johnwatson11218
Does anyone else think that the student loan industry is creating inflation in
and around universities? I mean the cost of tuition and books is outpacing
inflation. The property markets around those schools remain red hot all the
time. I can't help but think that part of the problem here is that 19 and 20
year old kids are able to put their hand on 15-20K in the form of student
loans and start outbidding each other for housing, etc.

To me it seems likely that something like the sub prime meltdown could cause
the mass EEE.

~~~
jdminhbg
I've had the same thought. As long as the government keeps expanding the
availability of easy and nearly-free credit for education, why wouldn't
schools increase the price? Schools are basically competing with each via
facilities, dorms, programs, and faculty, rather than cost. Until the total
cost of college reaches the earning potential boost it gives you, that
inflation seems pretty likely to continue.

~~~
johnwatson11218
Not only that but there is an entire student loan industry ( that Obama wants
to get rid of) that has a vested interest in expanding the amount of student
debt.

It becomes so easy for a student to justify taking on extra debt to keep from
working at a minimum wage job. Year after year the cycle continues but at some
point you have to ask is the debt worth the benefit. It seems that for liberal
arts majors with advanced degrees it is becoming less justifiable from a cost
benefit point of view.

Maybe the bubble will pop when business, engineering, and law degrees aren't
able to make back the money spent on the degree.

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araneae
I think many colleges will indeed disappear. It's only natural that the
college bubble will burst as the number of 4 year colleges has exploded in the
last 50 years. But I think universities will be relatively safe; at least the
big, prestigious ones.

Universities only partially exist because of education. Most of the hiring is
done based on research, and a lot of the funding comes from grants. Yes, part
of the money comes from the students. But the movement of the Ivies towards
needs-blind admittance in addition to grant-only financial aid (i.e. no loans)
means it doesn't matter as much as it does to other universities. And of
course, the Ivies have that intangible and resilient allure of prestige. The
upper class will always pay for that.

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boredguy8
If education is a commodity, the university system is doomed. It faces a
fairly severe challenge even if it’s not a commodity, but the headlong rush to
uniformity and scalability is incompatible with the posh role of the prof.

And I doubt research is the answer absent an intense corporatizing influence
that would functionally turn the university into a research arm of industry,
which will leave little space for education.

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learnalist
Im still thinking of my own thoughts on this topic.

Whilst I try and grapple with this notion and potential implications I would
like to ask a question of my fellow HN'ers. ( especially those who have posted
so far )

Have you been to university?

Do you have a degree or something else from a university?

I ask these questions as I think its important to get a little background of
the person who is posting there views.

I do have a degree in "Information Technology no less Majoring in Data
communications".

My gut feeling is, there will always be a place for universities. I further
believe there will be a huge growth market in self paced study via the
internet which will not be linked primarily to universities. Further more, I
want to believe that universities will be geared more towards those who are
able to "do it for themselves".

"do it for themselves" - I believe will get taught / inspired at school ( high
school etc ) via social networks and via social / console games to a point.

I think the future is bright for learning.

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euroclydon
I know this is a technological forum, and that the article proposes that
technology will make universities obsolete, but the universities, and in fact
all schools are great homogenizers. I reject the notion that people need to
become socialized and need to network within a school-like system. This didn't
happen two hundred years ago, arguably our nation's hey-day.

When we are all Ramblin' Wrecks or Fighting Illini, sure we're easier to
market to, and so business people can make their money, but we're also easier
to govern, and let's face it, we're too easy to govern right now. Senators
are, with few exceptions, elected for life, and most head to D.C. as paupers
and leave as kings. We need more individualism and that is why I reject the
premise of two of Lipton's arguments: networking and socialization.

~~~
smallblacksun
> most head to D.C. as paupers and leave as kings

Um, most senators head to DC rich and leave richer.

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tungstenfurnace
Educate students -- lecturing doesn't work. Best is working from the best
material in small groups of peers and having help _available_ from graduate
students.

Socialise students -- learning to get on with people is best done with
friends.

Networking -- done online.

Research and innovation -- yes. that's what universities are about.

Optimum path for students is now online self-study undergraduate degree. Can
complete quickly or as slowly as required. Then go to university if you want
to do a PhD.

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johnohara
Easy to say "we'll make it available online." Not all that difficult to
implement either.

But doing it well so as to be engaging as well as educational is very
difficult. On par with finding extraordinary teachers.

There are many instructors at the university level. Then there are those few
we all remember. It's no different with online instruction. There's a lot of
material already, but then there's those few gems of production that truly
educate.

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protomyth
I do think that the problems with higher education are directly related to the
drop in standards of our high school system. I get the feeling a revolution in
the high school system will go a long way to fixing the focus and need for
higher education.

~~~
yummyfajitas
It's very true that problems in high school are (partly) responsible for
watering down higher education.

However, universities have vastly more problems than that. They are huge
bloated organizations structured around funneling money to employees (from
both students and the government) rather than educating students. The main
reason people still go is for status signaling purposes, otherwise they would
have been replaced long ago.

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protomyth
One interesting thing about doing educational videos, you can pre-produce a
"lecture" and then have the teacher around for Q&A (during - just switch to
the live camera/ after).

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vondur
Of course, I could of have don all of my Chemistry lab work via an online
course! I suppose for Liberal Arts classes it may be viable, but not of the
sciences.

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kingkawn
there is no way that university of phoenix or its ilk will replace major
universities. period.

~~~
presidentender
Your argument hasn't convinced me. I think it's only a matter of time before a
traditional university dedicates itself to a 'respectable' online component,
de-stigmatizing online education and opening bachelor's degrees to the masses.
The University of Phoenix might not be the overall winner, but the online
business model probably will be. It's just too efficient to lose.

The only major hurdle I see is to convince middle-class young adults that they
can still get drunk and hang out with new people while taking the online
courses.

~~~
prewett
If you tell them they have to pay $20,000/yr for the privilege of getting
drunk and hanging out with new people, I bet they can figure something out a
little cheaper...

~~~
presidentender
That's just the thing, though. They don't have to pay, at least not
immediately. The credit card and student loan debt of my classmates (class of
'09) absolutely blew my mind.

