
Apple stock plunges $30. Sky IS falling. - kirubakaran
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=AAPL
======
sanj
This article:

<http://www.thestreet.com/pf/newsanalysis/media/10399930.html>

Talks about how Apple consistently sandbags its estimates, so it can blow
through them later. It sounds very much like Steve Jobs's MO:

"Jobs is incredibly and famously promotional when unveiling products, but when
he talks numbers he has always been just the opposite -- a conservative
player, sandbagging like there is no tomorrow. His dual nature throws people
off."

But it looks like underpromise/overdeliver has bitten the stock.

Time to buy!

~~~
ardit33
"But it looks like underpromise/overdeliver has bitten the stock.

Time to buy!"

\--Not really. It just sound that the market is saying: "in time a recession,
people have hard time to justify spending 1,700 in a useless laptop, or more
money on expensive stuff." Since apple represents the medium and higher end
spectrum on personal computers, people will be much much more price sensitive
to pricing.

The cheapest usable windows laptop, about $400. The cheapest Mac, about $800,
making it almost a luxury good. In hard times, it is the luxury stocks that
gett the beatings. Apple will have to either sell less laptops and gadgets
(fewer people will be able to afford or justify the extra $$), or drop the
prices (and margins) to the current products.

~~~
falsestprophet
You don't understand! The MacBook Air fits in a manila envelope.

------
willchang
We're an educated bunch. Could we not talk about stock price changes in
percentages? AAPL fell 17% today.

------
Xichekolas
ZOMG! Apple stock is going in the the wrong direction! The interwebs will
crash! Start buying bottled water and stock your bunker!

Seriously, who cares. Markets move in more than one direction.

------
far33d
Please.

I bought appl shares at $130 just 6 months ago. 6 months of gain is lost, not
3 years.

------
budu3
GOOG <http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:GOOG> and JAVA
<http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:JAVA> too, brace yourself people.

------
mattmaroon
APPL has been due for a correction for a long time. Their main product
achieved market saturation while their P/E ratio continued to soar.

Too bad I didn't have the cojones (or the faith in investor intelligence) to
short it.

~~~
alaskamiller
Their main product as in their computers? Oh, you're talking about their mp3
players. Yeah, those are quite oversaturated, but funny thing being that they
keep pushing refreshes continuously and people still buy them, 22 million of
them in one quarter. You heard of this other thing they're selling? iPhone?
Their P/E ratio in the past a couple of years have been soaring because of the
optimism and momentum people think Steve Jobs bring to the table. Even if it's
self correcting it'll just go back up again as Apple cranks more products
throughout the year.

~~~
bp001
Like their $1800 laptop that has about as much utility as the $300 ASUS EEE
PC? (ducks)

Steve Jobs has done an amazing job turning around the company and much of this
enthusiasm is warranted. However, the stock got way ahead of itself.

I considered shorting the stock also, but that is just way too risky. A stock
only has to double to wipe out the entire investment. And, if a stock is
already irrationally high, it could very well go substantially higher in the
short term. However, put options may be a good way to bet on the downside
while limiting risk.

At this point, I do think they are pretty close to an appropriate valuation.
If they get another hit with their iPhone and their computer market share
increases, they will do very well. But, I think this is far from a sure bet.

------
wallflower
I see a trend that indicates flattening of revenue + growth

Net Sales | Profit

1996 $ 9.8B | -$0.8B

1997 $ 7.1B | -$1.0B

1998 $ 5.9B | $0.31B

1999 $ 6.1B | $0.60B

2000 $ 8.0B | $0.79B

2001 $ 5.4B | -$0.03B

2002 $ 5.7B | $0.07B

2003 $ 6.2B | $0.06B

2004 $ 8.3B | $0.27B

2005 $13.9B | $1.33B

2006 $19.3B | $1.99B

2007 $24.0B | $3.50B

*Data from SEC database:

~~~
dcurtis
That's a joke, right?

------
tlrobinson
Pssh, that's alright, I got in around $7.50 / share back in '03.

Also, it's "only" down $16.75 at the close.

------
utnick
if you bought aapl stock 1 yr ago and sold it today after the crash you would
only be up 65% on the year :) i feel bad for you son

------
henning
I wonder if the OP is short AAPL ;)

------
sabat
Two words: buying opportunity.

