

SABRmetrics Guru Bill James: America Headed Towards Civil War - zabramow
http://www.replyall.me/zach-talks/talking-to-bill-james-author-of-popular-crime/

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ctdonath
Headline a bit deceptive. The "civil war" content is right at the end of the
interview, in response to what was intended as a light-hearted question.

 _We could be drifting toward civil war. If the political process stops
working, it will result in a civil war, as it has resulted in a civil war
thousands of times over the course of centuries. And our political process is
not working very well at this time._

Brinksmanship is a dangerous game, and Obama seems keen on playing it. In this
particular instance, the "shutdown" was a matter of Obama's "all or nothing"
strategy (facilitated by Reid et al), refusing to fund the government if
everyone were allowed the same healthcare-compliance extensions which the
well-connected received. In general, the "Left" is adamant about deep control
of all social/political/economic issues, and the "Right" is adamant about
individual liberty to do as one sees fit; this is becoming brinksmanship as
each side struggles to get their way, and a distressing number are concluding
that this system is about to stop working the way James predicts.

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zabramow
You're absolutely right. And I didn't follow up at the time because I was so
thankful to get him as a guest on my cast in the first place.

For what it's worth -- I followed up yesterday with Bill by email and he said
the following:

"Our political problems are more serious than most people are willing to
admit. You look back at history, at nations that are careening into civil war
--that is, at the US in 1850, at Kosovo in 1996, at England in 1642, at Rome
in 60 BC or 90 BC--and you ALWAYS find that people don't take seriously the
POSSIBILITY that they could be creating the conditions of a civil war, until
something happens that they didn't expect, and . ..BOOM. . .all of a sudden it
is too late to stop it. So what I am trying to say to the country, as best I
am able to from my relatively small podium, is "take seriously the damage that
you MAY be doing." You don't see a civil war coming. . .well, nobody ever sees
a Civil War coming; that's why they happen. Nobody sees it until it is too
late."

~~~
zabramow
And then his second comment was, "The essential fact about civil wars is that
they happen less than once in a lifetime, and, because they happen less than
once in a lifetime, the events leading into the civil war are not a part of
anyone's experience. Our perception of the arc of history is like our
perception of the world: it APPEARS to be flat, because it is bending so
slowly that we can't see the curve. We are bending very slowly toward
dysfunction leading to chaos, AS EVERY OTHER COUNTRY PERIODICALLY DOES, but
because the curve is so gradual, we think that the world is flat, that the
conflicts of today are merely repetitions of the conflicts of years past."

