
Projected costs of single-payer healthcare financing in the United States - js2
https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003013
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js2
>>> We identified 22 credible economic models of the cost of single-payer
financing in the US, from a variety of government, business consultant, and
academic organizations. We found that 19 (86%) predict net savings in the
first year of operations, with a range from 7% higher net cost to 15% lower
net cost. Increases in cost due to improved insurance coverage and thus higher
utilization were 2% to 19%. Savings from simplified payment administration at
insurers and providers, drug cost reductions, and other mechanisms ranged from
3% to 27%. The largest net savings were for plans with reductions in drug
costs. Net savings accumulate over time at an estimated 1.4% per year. Of
note, we excluded 2 widely publicized studies [20,24], both of which found net
costs, on the grounds that these studies made assumptions that included
private insurance intermediaries (i.e., not a single-payer) or lacked
technical detail for evaluation.

>>> These analyses suggest that single-payer can save money, even in year 1,
incorporating a wide range of assumptions about potential savings. More
aggressive measures to realize cost reductions are projected to yield greater
net savings. This implies that concerns about health system cost growth with
single-payer may be misplaced, though costs to government are likely to grow
as tax-based financing replaces private insurance premiums and out-of-pocket
spending.

