
What If I'm Wrong About Peak Oil? - ph0rque
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5537#more
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bwhite
TANSTAAFL.

The solutions for peak oil, global warming, etc are extremely costly. For
example, the Waxman-Markey bill would impose significant indirect regulatory
costs in addition to making electricity substantially more expensive
(<http://rollcall.com/news/36393-1.html?type=printer_friendly>). For example,
buying smaller, fuel-efficient cars will lead to more fatalities
(<http://iihs.org/externaldata/srdata/docs/sr4404.pdf>).

The cost of being wrong leading to misallocation of resources is being poorer,
less competitive globally, and deader. It may indeed be worthwhile to pursue
these mandated-change initiatives anyway since being right means being
relatively rich, competitive, and alive, but the downside costs are certainly
real. Just because the author grows some of his own food and enjoys bicycling
and thus his behavior when wrong looks very much like his behavior when right
doesn't mean that he and everyone else wouldn't be bearing the diffuse costs
of being expensively wrong.

~~~
anamax
> The solutions for peak oil, global warming, etc are extremely costly.

Actually, the "solutions" aren't aimed at global warming, etc. Yes, AGW and
the like are used to justify them, but look at what they actually do and ask
"Is this an effective solution?" In the few cases where the proposal actually
has some relevance to the problem, ask "Is this solution competitive with
reasonable alternatives?"

When the peak oil, global warming, etc folk start proposing things that are
actually rational solutions to the supposed problems instead of power-grabs,
I'll take them seriously.

And no, "something is better than nothing" is not true. Something can easily
be worse than nothing. And, if that's the standard, they can't object to my
favorite something, virgin sacrifices.

------
symesc
I live in Calgary, Alberta, which is home to most head offices for Canadian
oil and gas companies.

Peak Oil is a fairly important reason why I continue to live here despite
frozen winters and cool summer evenings.

From an investment perspective, I'm essentially all-in betting on Peak Oil.
Job, house, golf membership, cash investments, all of this is contingent on
the continued health of the oil and gas business.

The only question about Peak Oil is when, not if. It may have already
happened. Price-speculation in 2008 aside, the average cost of a barrel of oil
is going up. The price of natural gas has not gone anywhere, which is likely
because of shale-gas production coming online in the US. They're not making
more oil. . . .

~~~
bwhite
The speculative froth of summer 2008 aside, the average cost of oil is not
skyrocketing
([http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/fsheets/real_prices.htm...](http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/fsheets/real_prices.html)
and
[http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Oil/Inflati...](http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Oil/Inflation_Adj_Oil_Prices_Chart.htm)).
Of course, this may be because people haven't yet realized that Peak Oil has
happened and a massive correction is imminent.

And even though no more dinosaur juice is being made (nobody seems to think
the abiogenic theory is worth anything) we certainly could have the use of
more oil: if the right Fischer Tropsch catalyst is found and/or if we figure
out how to drill deeper and/or get more out of the existing fields.

------
ryanvm
You're going to look like a moron driving that Smart Car.

~~~
ph0rque
_Au contraire_ , my wife swoons everytime we see one, and asks (yet again)
when we'll be able to afford to buy it. The efficiency is a very distant
second consideration for her.

~~~
ryanvm
I have a neighbor trying to sell his Smart Car now.

$15K for a car that seats two, gets 38 MPG, and will vanish into a singularity
in the event of a crash is _anything_ but smart.

~~~
redrobot5050
That's funny. You can watch all kinds of smart car crashes on YouTube, and
while they tend to bounce and spin and roll, the inhabitants always seem fine.
They have yet to post one where they vanish into a singularity.

~~~
gaius
Wait 'til the oil runs out and they run on red matter.

