
India (2002) - jalan
http://www.jimrogers.com/content/stories/articles/india.html
======
sremani
If I have to blame one thing and only one thing, I will spare the Indian
politician and blame the "babu-giri", Indian Civil Services, which is still
modeled around its colonial predecessor. These are people recruited in their
20s and have a lifetime appointment in the system. Some are wise enough to get
foreign education when possible, but most live in this bureaucratic bubble,
and methodically eke their fiefdoms. These guys are the policy wonks, district
level executives and every thing in between, and they do not have one frigging
Idea, how the private sector works. They are worshipers of process and people
are not in the picture. This culture permeates to every level, a culture of
gatekeepers and fiefdoms, from the Secretary to PM to the peon in the
municipal office.

India was called hope of Asia in 50s. The hope and promise was nothing new,
and the delivery was never there.

~~~
signal11
I read a column about that recently: "End the IAS" (the IAS is the successor
to the Colonial-era ICS iirc) [http://www.business-
standard.com/article/opinion/mihir-s-sha...](http://www.business-
standard.com/article/opinion/mihir-s-sharma-end-the-ias-115060501417_1.html)

~~~
test001only
That article is highly one sided and too radical. What would you do after
abolishing the IAS? What would it be replaced with? Is that going to end all
the evil in India? The diversity and complexity in India is so huge that every
policy decision needs to be considered from multiple points of view before
implementing. India is now in a position were it has to manage the aspiration
of both the new middle and upper middle class who aspire for things which
developed countries have and also at the same time cater to the needs of more
than half its population who are below poverty lines. People who complain
usually would not have a good solution or are probably too far away from the
ground reality.

~~~
kalyanganjam
>>That article is highly one sided and too radical.

Not at all. If anything, It is In fact too soft for the problems IAS system
continues to cause.

>>What would you do after abolishing the IAS? What would it be replaced with?

That's a good question. This has been studied at length by many many brilliant
minds. One of the bright minds (an EX-IAS officer) that I know who studied
this at length is Sanjeev Sabhlok
([https://twitter.com/sabhlok](https://twitter.com/sabhlok)). Sanjeev has a
rigourously refined solution. Highly detailed implementation plan that is so
detailed that even a junior IAS officer can understand. Please visit
[http://www.sabhlokcity.com/tag/ias/](http://www.sabhlokcity.com/tag/ias/) for
general reading and his book "Breaking Free of Nehru"

>>People who complain usually would not have a good solution or are probably
too far away from the ground reality.

One does not need always need to know the solution to recognize a problem.
Recognizing and acknowledging the problem is first of the many steps towards
solving it.

>>Is that going to end all the evil in India?

This is a necessary but not sufficient condition. No one thing will end all
evil in India. There are ways to end, but not one silver bullet.

------
ashwinaj
This seems like an outdated story (seems like it's a 2001 article). (I'm
ignoring fundamental problems like corruption etc. below) As far as the anti-
foreign investment sentiment goes, it sounds repulsive on face value, but
those of us (Indians) who've lived in the US would want a Walmart (just as an
example) destroying all the mom and pop shops? I think a cautious approach for
foreign investment is the way to go, the income inequalities in India is
already pretty bad, opening the floodgates without adequate measures of
certain protectionist policies (not blanket protectionism) would make it
worse. We need to realize that India is too big a market for multi-national
companies to ignore completely; the Indian govt. should have the upper hand in
any deal. And it should strike a deal which is in the interest of the Indian
people.

~~~
yummyfajitas
As a person who's shopped at both walmart and local "mom and pop shops", yes.
We also want Uber or Ola destroying the local taxi industry, and providing
safer and better service to consumers. We want Flipkart or Amazon destroying
local retail, Toyota destroying local automotive, etc.

Big scary (sometimes foreign) players only manage to "destroy" a local
industry when the local industry is failing to satisfy local customers.

~~~
chimeracoder
> We

You're speaking neither as an Indian national, an Indian shopowner, or even an
employee of a low-margin local business in India.

I understand that people living elsewhere have perspectives on this, as do ex-
pats living in India, but those aren't the people who are principally harmed
by this. It's very easy to conclude that this is "worth it" when you're only
benefiting from it[0] not the one feeling the pain.

[0] 'As a person [from the US] who's shopped at both walmart and local "mom
and pop shops" [in India]'

~~~
yummyfajitas
I'm speaking as a consumer in India - one of the people hurt by the current
regime. You seem to want to ignore the value to consumers - why?

Also, what is the relevance of my nationality? I make no secret of it, I'm
merely trying to understand why you bring it up.

------
padiyar83
Jim you really don't get India, do you. The intelligent, educated and high
tech India that you talk about and are surprised about has actually existed
for ten thousand years now. It has nothing to do with modernity, its just that
quest for knowledge is deep rooted in that culture. You mention India where
phones don't work and traffic jams are commonplace, in other words, India
where its inconvenient to lead a modern life, even thats existed for ten
thousand years, even during the harshest days of starvation under British rule
Indians were reasonably happy and not many people revolted for 250 years (they
had to be prodded to do so for the last 50 years). In a way, they were ok with
it and had accepted it as a way of life. What in western countries is a huge
inconvenience, in India it feels like something that you will get used to
eventually. The feeling of its ok to be inconvenienced and still be happy in
life is deep rooted in the culture.If you notice, both these things, quest for
knowledge and resilience towards inconvenience is needed in spiritual quests,
something which India pioneered to the world. India is in every way consistent
with what it should be if you look at it its whole existence and not just take
a snapshot of its past 100 years and correlate it with what is happening in
the world. And thats precisely the reason why I think India will thrive in the
coming decades and centuries. It's quest for knowledge will propel it forward
and its resiliency towards not being inconvenienced by petty things would keep
the momentum intact.

~~~
1971genocide
I agree.

As a bangladeshi I have watched privatization and IMF destroy my own country.

Its rich that someone who took a vacation in India somehow figured out all its
problems and knows all its solutions.

Strong labour laws in India prevented Indian workers from being exploited by
foreigners - Unlike in my own country where my people are slaves to american
consumer demands via walmart.

India is exactly what you end up when you institute democratic rule over a
real nation.

The idea of self-reliance is what allowed Indians to develop their own space
mission, nuclear power, submarines and unique cryogenic rockets that even the
american cannot get their hands on. And now the british use our rockets.

I went to a rural village in west bengal where they got their first light
bulb. What is cool about it is not that its basic electricity but because it
was powered using a nuclear plant.

Its embarrassing that in the UK the electricity is generated mostly by coal.
Who is the backward nation again ?

Indians are not interested in your fancy iphones. They have no purpose when
you think about it. India is completely happy to wait for technology to catch
up rather than destroy and pillage their environment and water.

Unlike the americans the indians didn't have the luxury to rape and pillage an
entire continent and another one. Resources are scares - water, food, land.

India is now developing thorium and is building power plants in the south.
Sounds like they are doing perfectly fine. Slow,steady and sustainable
progress.

------
pm90
The article is honest but the last paragraph makes me question whether it
really was..

> India really is not a rational country. The English mushed India together in
> the panic of independence in 1947, but little heed was given to ethnic,
> religious, linguistic, historic, national, or geographic considerations
> which is one reason India has had problems with every one of its neighbors
> since. India as we know it will not survive another 30 or 40 years. This of
> course does not have to end in disaster, but it probably will given the
> chauvinism of its government and the way history has always worked.

Really? A democracy of 1.3 billion people which has held together for > 60
years and endured > 4 major wars will just topple? I find that very unlikely.

The fact is that despite a lot of troubles, the country has managed to remain
more or less true to its principles of democracy and secularism, instead of
devolving into a chaotic mess that most of the neighboring countries have
faced. One reason is that the Indian Military has historically been
apolitical, unlike many neighboring countries. I don't really understand how
it has managed to stay together this way but I really hope that it does
continue.

~~~
trequartista
People have been talking about the "Balkanization of India" for a while now.
But there are no signs of this yet. Indians have a deep rooted (albeit
slightly misguided and maybe even chauvinistic) sense of patriotism.

~~~
chengiz
Patriotism is there, but the main problem here is that India is pretty much
already very Balkanized in geography and class if not national boundaries. It
also has a strong central government. Any revolutionary/indepedence movements
therefore tend to be fringe (someone in Maharashtra does not really care for
farmer movement in Bengal) and easily controlled (due to the strong center).
The patriotism means that any overtly violent army action is not frowned upon
but rather encouraged by most who have a voice. The extreme poverty means the
poor are so wretched they do not have a voice. We have met people on a two
hour drive (which means only about 30 km) outside Mumbai who have never been
to a big city and know nothing beyond how to get to the next day. If by some
magic, most Indians become a bit educated tomorrow, and have some life other
than mere existence, then we can talk about actual Balkanization. Until then,
India will exist as it always has. There is also the Partition which has
affected the national psyche: talk of dividing the country is like so far out
there, you'd be considered a traitor a few levels before that.

------
guybrushT
There are 2 amazing things about this article: 1\. It was written a while ago,
and the general description of the country and its problems are just as true.
2\. This quote: "In the eastern section of India, there is a company called
Bengal Fertilizer, which was built in the early nineties. The government spent
$1.2 billion on it and it took seven years to complete. It now employs 1550
people with complete work schedules, vacations, canteens, unions, etc. And yet
they have never produced an ounce of fertilizer."

A good piece of writing - quite critical about the country, but also comes
from a place of affection for the country.

~~~
chimeracoder
> A good piece of writing - quite critical about the country, but also comes
> from a place of affection for the country.

I'm not sure where you're reading "affection" from. Rogers has been predicting
and even actively cheerleading India's financial decline consistently for
literally two decades. He even closes the article with a claim that is
laughably ignorant[0] of historical facts, and just reeks of colonial
apologism.

> India really is not a rational country. The English mushed India together in
> the panic of independence in 1947, but little heed was given to ethnic,
> religious, linguistic, historic, national, or geographic considerations
> which is one reason India has had problems with every one of its neighbors
> since. India as we know it will not survive another 30 or 40 years. This of
> course does not have to end in disaster, but it probably will given the
> chauvinism of its government and the way history has always worked.

The reason that India has been at war is because the world's then-largest
superpower[1] (the British) _openly_ declared that they wanted to start a
civil war in India, and then actively funded terrorist[2] groups to ensure
that it happened.

There are people in the US who have affection for India. Rogers is not one of
them.

[0] No, I don't think that Rogers is actually ignorant of history; I'm saying
he chooses to ignore history.

[1] India's fight for independence was just around the time that the US took
over that epithet from the British

[2] That word didn't exist then, but that's absolutely what we would call them
today

~~~
dragonwriter
Re: "terrorists" and India at the time of independence

> That word didn't exist then, but that's absolutely what we would call them
> today

It had actually existed for about a century and half before that, and had been
used in the modern sense (including referring to non-state and subnational
actors, often directing violence against a state, rather than the original use
referring to terrorism strictly in the sense of a top-down means of state
control originating with the French Revolution's Reign of Terror and its
architects, the original "terrorists") for about 70-80 years prior to Indian
independence.

------
mehuln
Funnily enough, after reading the first paragraph, it still sounds like a
recent article even though it has been years. In fact, the country probably
has taken two steps back under Manmohan Singh.

To a certain extent, even if the article was recent, it's not a surprise.
Democracies are SLOW and India is still a social democracy trying to be a
capitalistic democracy - so even slower.

Democracies move fast only during a crisis. Otherwise, they are inherently
slow.

Even in the US, a majority of top issues have not changed much since the 90s.
Politicians have been debating pretty much the same thing without much
progress...

~~~
gnufied
Factually if we take each point in the Article, a lot has changed and yet not
enough:

1\. You can get cross country SIM card easily in India today.

2\. Taxes for IT business is uniform (no incentive for export per se)

3\. Indian IT industry did just fine during bubble burst so Author's cyncism
was bit misplaced.

4\. Indian aviation industry is fierecly competitive. Today no one worries
about future of Air India not because Air India has become good but there is
enough competition.

5\. I would argue that a lot has been done to ease Foreign investment since
Article was written. Why just yesterday new measures were announced
([http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/no-mat-on-fii-
why...](http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/no-mat-on-fii-why-issue-of-
taxing-foreign-investors-flares-up-repeatedly/))

~~~
a9entroy
Sim cards charge heavily for "roaming" in other states. A sim card still truly
belongs to only one state.

Despite the tax reform, doing any business in India is still a hassle
nevertheless.

Indian aviation industry may be competitive, but can a middle-class family
really afford an airplane ticket ? No. They are only afforded the option of a
second class train ticket which have toilets worse than the one shown in
Trainspotting. And I haven't even touched the topic of trains being
overcrowded. Seriously, who thought letting any number of people with a ticket
on the train was a good idea ?

~~~
mehuln
The Raj - or the consequence of The Raj are still ubiquitous. They were moving
in right direction with BJP in charge (and talking about capitalism only not
other issues). Last 10 years of Congress has stifled lot of the progress that
Narshima Rao's Gov started.

------
ksk
Heh. It reads like the usual "business" article with several apriori
assumptions. Not that there is anything wrong with that. I'm OK with bias as
long as people don't claim to be neutral.

* Capitalism good, Socialism bad * All countries should emulate the west. * "Not Business friendly" \- Code for this country won't let us exploit their people.

Then we come to the actual substance.

>First, revenues from software made by Indian companies is taxed while export
revenues are tax-exempt. In other words, an Indian company has no incentive to
do local business.

Uh, yeah. Sure. All the people doing exactly that don't exist. They have no
incentive !!

>By then, India may have learned to practice true economic reform, taking a
lesson from their neighbors in China.

Why would anyone want to take a lesson from China? - Which BTW continues to
forcibly exert control over the lives of her people (including businesses).

>Maybe then they will understand that a free-market economy isn't necessarily
a new form of colonialism.

Wow. Dude, India has been trading and doing business with East Africa, the
Middle East, all of south Asia including China since like 6 AD. We
'understand' how to trade just fine.

------
1024core
We (Indians) can look all over for the causes of what ails India, but not at
the one place where a majority of the blame lies: ourselves.

We will bemoan the corrupt system; but given a chance to make life a little
bit easier, not hesitate to offer a bribe.

We will spew venom at the useless politicians who do nothing but line their
pockets; but then turn around and vote for one based on caste/religion.

We will express angst at the garbage that litters our cities; but not hesitate
to toss it out the window (or our home's garbage on the street).

Gandhi said, be the change you want to see. I'm not a fan of Gandhi, but in
this he was right. We must change our behavior, before we can expect the
system to change.

~~~
1971genocide
I agree with you. But you are not giving India enough credit.

India has a corruption problem - and so does the americans, british,
europeans, etc . Hell The LIBOR scandal is on 900 trillion dollars. And this
is before I bring up 2008.

Privatization is not that answer. Look at the situation at Bangladesh if you
want to see what privatization leads to.

~~~
1024core
Corruption may be a problem in the US too, but, having lived here for a
decade, I can assure you I've never been asked nor offered a single bribe.
Corruption doesn't affect the common man directly here. In any case: just
because it's in some other country, makes it all right to do it in India,
right? Instead of racing for the bottom, why not try racing to the top, and
compare India to Sweden, Norway, etc.?

Secondly: I never brought up privatization.

~~~
kalyanganjam
>>Corruption may be a problem in the US too, but, having lived here for a
decade, I can assure you I've never been asked nor offered a single bribe.

Not being asked for bribe is not necessarily absence of corruption. For a
crash course on How Real world corruption works. Great place to start is
[https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/c84bp/how_realwo...](https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/c84bp/how_realworld_corruption_works/)

>>Corruption doesn't affect the common man directly here.

Incorrect. Read the link above

>>In any case: just because it's in some other country, makes it all right to
do it in India, right?

am 99.99% sure poster is not suggesting it is right thing. Hust saying it is
not an India only problem and that it exists everywhere.

~~~
1024core
>> Not being asked for bribe is not necessarily absence of corruption. For a
crash course on How Real world corruption works. Great place to start is
[https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/c84bp/how_realwo...](https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/c84bp/how_realwo..).

Having in lived in India most of my life, I don't need to read an Economist
article to find out what corruption is. Want to get a passport? Pay a bribe.
Want to construct an addition to you house? Pay a bribe (or just do it
illegally). The list goes on. In countries like US, Sweden, Canada, etc at
least you're not hammered with corruption requests in your day-to-day
existence.

~~~
kalyanganjam
What you are describing is bribery. Corruption is a closely related and
slightly different thing.

~~~
dragonwriter
Bribery is a form of corruption.

~~~
kalyanganjam
>Bribery is a form of corruption.

Agreed

By "Corruption is a closely related and slightly different thing" I meant the
same thing. My point is non existence of bribery does not automatically
translate to no corruption.

------
koopuluri
> No bubble ends with two-year lows. Bubbles end with 10 or 15 year lows

It seems like the software bubble ended with lows for maybe half that time. Is
there anything peculiar to software or that time that made it different than
other bubbles in history?

------
myth_buster
Can a title be more vague?

I think it may make sense to use this title in the original article as the
site might carry some context but using it in HN doesn't seem too efficient.

~~~
dang
A little inefficiency—not much, just enough to be a speed bump—is a good thing
on the HN front page, because it interrupts the usual internet reflexes.
Reflexive responses, being predictable, are not interesting. What we want are
reflective responses. Reflection is a slower process, requiring a pause. So I
think it's good if we readers have to work a little: it slows us down, and
maybe activates better circuitry.

~~~
myth_buster
I agree with you on slowing down "reflexive responses" but I would say cryptic
titles may not be the right approach specially on weekdays.

If I've to read an essay to understand the context the chances are I'll put it
off for later and unfortunately will not be able to participate in the
discussion.

------
chatman
> You can get just about anything in China or even in parts of Africa, but not
> here.

Any concrete examples? I think this is inappropriate any more.

~~~
izolate
A cheeky example. The 6 months I spent in India a couple of years ago, I found
it impossible to obtain a canister of compressed air to clean my laptop, which
had accumulated more dust in the 6 months than the 4 years prior. There are
much better examples, but still.

~~~
gshx
Amzn seem to have it: [http://www.amazon.in/s/ref=nb_sb_noss_2?url=search-
alias%3Da...](http://www.amazon.in/s/ref=nb_sb_noss_2?url=search-
alias%3Daps&field-keywords=compressed+air+can+for+laptop)

------
stillsut
Jim Rogers, you may know me from such books as:

Investment Biker

A Bull in China

Adventure Capitalist

Hot Commodities

(seriously, [http://www.jimrogers.com/](http://www.jimrogers.com/)) This guy
has traveled the world and learned lots of puns.

------
fauigerzigerk
I think this is from 2002, a pretty long time ago. The infrastructure issues
don't seem to have gone away though.

------
hatred
How old is this article ?

From the content this looks pretty old, like India having 25 states etc.

~~~
navpatel
Looks like "6 Mar 2001" according to the link that goes to the article.

He recently appeared in the news for "quitting" India:
[http://www.livemint.com/Money/Hii5NshplbswnJpcb0cHgM/Jim-
Rog...](http://www.livemint.com/Money/Hii5NshplbswnJpcb0cHgM/Jim-Rogers-exits-
India-says-one-cant-invest-just-on-hope.html)

------
shripadk
How is this relevant now? We are in 2015 not 2001.

~~~
sremani
Because most of the broader conclusions barring some minor details including
brown-outs, dilapidated roads and crumbling railways and insane government
officers has not changed.

