
Jeff Bezos: Regret Minimization Framework - sayemm
http://bijansabet.com/post/147533511/jeff-bezos-regret-minimization-framework
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danilocampos
The only true failure is inaction.

Plunging toward something terrifying lets you know that you're making
progress, pushing your limits, forcing growth. The best, most enjoyable points
in my life have been preceded by fear (leaving home for college, starting
really tough roles, dropping a safe job so I could get into the software
business, moving across country).

Conversely, the points of the most significant stagnation have been entirely
devoid of fear. If I'm not scared, clearly things are too safe, too mild, too
absent of challenge.

I measure how well I'm using my days by recency of fear. I know if I'm getting
too comfortable, things are getting slack and it's time to start evaluating
what new risks and challenges could lead to interesting rewards.

Have I screwed up? Sure. Plenty of gambles didn't pan out, but each and every
one of them taught me a lot. Most also gave me a great pivot to work with,
leading to new opportunities I never would have found.

It's a more proactive regret minimization framework, but I like it. Most
importantly, it got me to the Bay Area, the best place I've ever lived.

~~~
Tyrannosaurs
It depends on what you mean by inaction. If by inaction you mean letting fear
hold you on your current course then you may be right but we should
distinguish between that and intelligently weighing and discarding an option.

The stories we hear about are the ones that worked out. That figures, the
people who jacked in a $100,000 a year job to found a business that died on
it's arse (and remember most do) aren't so willing to talk about it. It's
important not to have your vision skewed by the availability of overwhelmingly
positive examples.

Life throws a lot of chances at us and, if we've made good decisions up until
now, there's a very real possibility that you're already in a situation that
is better than those being offered to you.

I'm not saying don't try new stuff, just that the idea that staying where you
are is automatically some sort of failure is bunk.

~~~
danilocampos
Sure. I ditched a safe $60,000 a year (plus bonus and other meaty goodies) job
because I wanted to work in software. This is good money in Orlando, FL and I
did this in mid 2009, when the economy was terrifying. Eventually I ran out of
money as an indie. So my effort did die on its arse. But now I work in the
software business. It was awesome.

I'm sure there are plenty of ways I could have ended up less lucky than I
have. I try to think of luck as a function of work, though. I want to believe
I'm a survivor, but I've definitely been fortunate.

All I'm saying is that if you've got some sort of direction you feel is
important but you never take action, that's the failure. If you take action
and don't succeed, there's a lot you might do to make the most of your new
position, thanks entirely to your having taken the risk.

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bd
Interesting factoid - boss in the story was not just some random Wall Street
dude, it was D. E. Shaw:

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_E._Shaw>

~~~
ivancho
well, welcome to the American Dream, where you too can become a billionaire,
as long as you start from a position with massive capital and a large hedge
fund happy to take you back if you fail..

This is the stuff that motivational speakers thrive on. Of course the whole
'when I am 80, I don't want regrets' framework works, as long as you assume
that you are going to be filthy rich no matter what choices you make.

~~~
jasonkester
It works just as well when you're 23 years old, fresh out of college, and
wondering whether you should put off finding a job for six months while you go
backpacking around Southeast Asia.

What are the odds that I'll I find myself living on the street in 10 years,
begging for spare change and cursing myself for having taken that vacation
instead of immediately finding a job? And what are the odds that in 10 years
I'll find myself with a house and kids, wishing I'd taken that dream trip
while I had the chance?

Incidentally, it works just as well if you substitute "startup" for "dream
trip".

------
happybuy
I've found a good technique to use - if you don't feel you are able to make
the 'one' big decision (e.g. quit your job and work full-time on your startup)
- is to make sure that every day you do something that moves you closer to
your primary goal.

I find its similar to Bezos' regret minimization framework in that if you feel
you are moving towards the goal, on a daily basis, no matter how slow it may
be, then you are less likely to have regrets about the other 'distractions' to
that goal that you encounter during the day.

~~~
daemin
That's sort of what DHH suggests where anyone can start their own business by
working on it just 10 hours a week or so. That advice is definitely working
for me at the moment.

Just do a little bit every day, an hour or two towards your goal, and you'll
get there soon enough.

Don't know where this quote is from, but I've seen it in Civ4 - "you move a
mountain by first removing small rocks".

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pfedor
One thing you will surely regret at the age of 80 is if you will still have to
work part time, not having saved enough for retirement. Starting a startup
that fails costs you several hundred grand (which I know from a friend who
started a startup that failed). For many people, although certainly not for
Jeff Bezos, several hundred grand is a significant chunk of their total
retirement savings.

~~~
njharman
You have failed at properly saving for retirement if several (3-5) hundred
grand is a significant > 49% of their total retirement savings.

~~~
nagrom
Wow, what you're saying here is that you have failed at saving for your
retirement if you don't have $1m in semi-liquid funds. Really? I guess that
fewer than 10% of the population will ever be in that position. Your
definition of failure seems to be "didn't succeed massively".

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mcknz
Ah, the lingering, slightly sweet odor of survivorship bias wafting in the
breeze....

I'm sure there's at least a couple of octogenarians out there regretting their
jetpack startup.

~~~
dabent
If one's regret is tied to the success or failure of the activity, then they
might want to adjust their regret minimization algorithm accordingly.

I think a lot of entrepreneurs would regret not trying, or at least that's the
impression I get from hearing stories of those who've tried and failed. It's
just in their blood to give it a shot - win, lose or draw.

That goes for all kinds of activities, including ones where "failure" means
death and success just means having a story to tell. People still give it a
shot, knowing they would have regretted not doing it. I guess "jetpack tester"
would be one such category.

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jscore
I also have a similar technique. When I'm 70 or whatever, how would my
biography look like?

Hopefully something like...'At 18 he moved out of the house, at 25 he started
on a new startup, etc.' I want it to be full of events, doesn't matter if they
were failures or successes, what matters that they're experiences and
experiments.

Hopefully it won't be something like 'He joined company A at 22, and worked
there till 65, and then retired.'

~~~
jacquesm
So, what does it look like so far?

~~~
jscore
Work in progress, not boring by any means... But that mentality has really
helped me to steer many of my decisions.

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keeptrying
His bonus must have been about $100K+ ... I wonder why he decided to give that
up? That would have helped him starting a company.

Or maybe, my reasoning is the very reason I wont create an Amazon.com :( ...

I'm still confused as to why he decided to forego the bonus. The only thing I
can think of is that he had some feeling about his idea and his capabilities
w.r.t that idea that he couldnt wait?

~~~
smanek
As I understand it, he was a VP at DE Shaw - which probably put his annual
bonus at least several times higher than that (and low 7-figures wouldn't even
be too unusual).

~~~
keeptrying
In a bank or hedge fund ... everyone is a VP ... Of course if he had the
boss's ear - he was probably a special employee ...

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wolfrom
I think it comes down to rationalizations: I know that I can rationalize doing
something new and different. I can convince myself that a failed venture
taught me something, whereas I have no way of telling myself that I shouldn't
regret a missed opportunity.

It's much more common to be stuck wondering "what if" as opposed to "what if I
hadn't".

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kevinburke
Good for Jeff. Regret minimization works for people who are low discounters -
who are able to delay reward for long periods of time. Think people who have
no problem putting their money in 3-year CD's earning two percent a year.

This framework isn't so useful for high discounters, or people who believe
that they are living in a simulation. For them the short term benefit
outweighs the regret they'll feel later on.

------
ansonparker
Isn't "Regret Minimization Framework" less awkwardly phrased as "go for it,
you only live once".

Or is there some further implication we should be striving to meet
octogenarian values and criteria of success?

I remember reading in one of Malcolm Gladwell's books that people tend to
regret inaction much more than bad choices.

I guess what I'm saying is this "Framework" seems totally superfluous.

~~~
riffraff
or "better to repent than regret" (I believe that is also an english saying,
though I may be wrong)

~~~
sp332
It's close, "Better to ask forgiveness than permission."

~~~
riffraff
I thought of this too but considered it as different. forgiveness/permission
is what I'd think of before kissing a girl, while repent/regret would be what
I'd think before going out with her ;)

Thanks for the reply.

------
jsmcgd
Hah, that's exactly how I make my big decisions except I asked it from the
perspective of 'what will I regret not having done the most when on my
deathbed?'.

------
Tomek_
wasn't that Mark Twain who said/wrote "20 years from now you will be more
disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do"?

------
rubashov
I'm sure it's true that Bezos at 80 wouldn't end up looking back and cursing
himself for failure at starting a company. But it's a little naive to overlook
that a lot of people would. Decent careers aren't exactly growing on trees.

~~~
danilocampos
Careers don't grow anywhere and they're not handed out like mittens or
cupcakes.

Careers are _made_ by each of us. Forged in the flame of your passion to do
something interesting and meaningful with your days.

That's why it annoys me when big brand companies call their job section
"Careers."

You get a decent career by taking risks and pursuing challenges. Going with
the flow gives you a mediocre career – and who wants that?

------
mkramlich
I also use the "what will I think about this when I'm 80 and looking back on
it" approach. As a rule of thumb, it helps resolve a lot of choices easily,
for the better.

------
alsomike
But I hate it when old people try to tell me how to live!

