
Oil traders are watching workers’ phones to spot problems at refineries - yarapavan
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-21/traders-can-now-spot-oil-refinery-problems-by-tracking-phones
======
sevensor
I've heard from a friend who used to work in Houston refineries, that it's not
unusual for refinery workers (who do carry mobile phones, by the way) to call
their brokers immediately when they hear an explosion or see an unexpected
plume of smoke from a neighboring refinery.

Also smoking on the job is apparently much more common at refineries than I
would have expected.

Edit: this comment reflects the state of the industry 20 years ago, second
hand. Take it for what it's worth.

~~~
maxerickson
_Of course_ people smoke where it doesn't make much sense.

I mean, think about it for a second.

~~~
akadeb
I thought about it and couldn't figure out why it's obvious. Care to share
some light on that?

~~~
maxerickson
Smoking a cigarette has its downsides no matter how flammable the greater
surrounding environment happens to be.

~~~
creddit
So in your world, if you’re willing to be X amount self-destructive or accept
X risk, you’re also willing to accept X + Y risk or self destruction
regardless of how large Y is. Got it.

~~~
maxerickson
No, I just expect that acceptance of X is correlated with acceptance of Y.

(and really, much of the time, acceptance is the wrong word. Indifference or
something like that often fits better)

~~~
EpicEng
Which also doesn't hold. I'm willing to invest my money, but I'm not sticking
it into penny stocks. Your reasoning ignores any sort of reasonable boundary
people have wrt risk.

~~~
maxerickson
That's not what correlated means.

~~~
EpicEng
You're right. Correlated does not mean "people who have historically take
risks will take any risk regardless of the danger."

~~~
maxerickson
Which shouldn't have quote because it wasn't what I said, and isn't even a
fair reading of what I said.

Correlated implies a _statistical_ relationship, ruling out phrases like "will
take any risk regardless" and requiring phrases more like "may tend to" and
such.

And then I even said that I "expect" the correlation, so it's probably
reasonable to read the usage as more conversational than scientific.

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darksaints
I'm not surprised in the least. The industry is full of stories that started
out as rumors but have ended up proven as true about the lengths they will go
for more or better information.

I've heard an apocryphal story that I'm still waiting for truth on. It was of
a soybean prop trading firm quant who reverse engineered a cross-town rival's
trading strategy, allowing them to front run their strategy. The way that they
did it was taking a number from the firm's name, and using it as a random
number seed, and then using that seed to find the randomized order sizes would
result from their iceberg order algorithm. They would use those sizes to match
to l2 passive limit order flow to try to identify activity coming from the
firm. Once they discovered the direction the firm was going, they'd place a
huge market order and suck up all of the liquidity that the competitor was
trying to acquire passively, effectively moving the market before their
competitor could fill their position.

Stuff like this still blows me away, but it's just crazy enough to be true.

~~~
gamblor956
I heard that story from a quant friend. However, the way I heard the story,
the targeted firm found out about their rival's attempt to game their
strategy, and faked a bunch of activity. The rival's algorithm acted on the
activity and placed a large market order...in the wrong direction.

~~~
doovd
This is called spoofing and is illegal.

~~~
tomsthumb
From a place of total ignorance, why would telegraphing a particular false
strategy to your competitor in order to get them to respond in a way that is
profitable to you be illegal?

~~~
1stcity3rdcoast
Because you’re not just telegraphing it to your competitor, you’re moving the
entire market and affecting the bid/ask and price transparency for all its
participants. That affects liquidity, derivatives, a lot of downstream
negatives.

That said, there are narrow instances where you can place less-than-real
orders in a market [0]... it just has to be a market that is nearly and
completely illiquid.

[0]
[https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-04/trying...](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-04/trying-
to-buy-stuff-you-want-is-not-manipulation)

------
lolc
Soooo

1\. Generate fake phone profiles of a made-up disaster crew

2\. Wait for minor disaster at random refinery

3\. Feed trackers with location data showing your fake crew moving into that
refinery

4\. Repeat 2, 3 to associate your profiles with disaster

5\. Short some fine $refinery stock

6\. Move your crew to $refinery

7\. Profit

I wonder whether this has already been pulled off :-)

~~~
tantalor
8\. Indicted for fraud

~~~
AznHisoka
don't think this is fraud. Oil refineries aren't lying about their oil
production to the general public. It's the hedge funds' fault for relying on
their location data.

~~~
dchichkov
It is market manipulation. In the United States it is prohibited under Section
9(a)(2) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. [1].

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_manipulation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_manipulation)

------
blantonl
How are they gathering this data?

Are they placing detection equipment at/near the target locations to monitor
for cell phone signatures in the vicinity, or are they gathering from mobile
apps who resell location data to aggregation firms?

~~~
djsumdog
Yea that wasn't clear. The article made it sound like they're aggregating data
from various sources that collect location data (probably from those app
metric providers like Tune and others). So if someone ran an open source phone
with F-Droid or just installed zero apps with metrics (and Google isn't one of
their sources), they wouldn't ever show up in this data set.

I'm guessing location data comes from the Apple/Google location APIs that can
map peoples aprox locations based on their proximity to Wi-Fi points (I think
they register Wi-Fi points and then the first GPS signal the phone gets after;
like when someone walks outside, and use a set of those to get approximate
triangulation for indoor Wi-Fi APs).

~~~
londons_explore
Google and apple done sell data from their location APIs that would be
suitable for this.

I reckon it'll be coming from catriers

------
stcredzero
I've envisioned an application like the following for construction sites and
industrial installations:

There would be a "supervisor" app with a schematic 3D model of the site, with
dots or tags indicating the location of smartphones of workers, who have
installed a satellite app.

There would be messaging between the satellite apps and the supervisor app,
and a worker with a satellite app could stream video or post pictures to their
tag, which could then be accessed from the supervisor app.

There could also be a VR/AR version of this. No video stream would take over
the POV of the VR/AR users. Rather, the streams would be available as pop-up
"screens" from the location tags on the schematic model.

For bonus points, interface this with CAD/CAM, so that not only the schematic
model can be imported, but the design details can be accessed and drilled-
down, and relayed to the workers on-site.

The purpose would be to provide answers and clarifications to workers very
quickly, as well as providing contextual information localized in the 3D space
of the design to supervisors, architects, and engineers.

Is there already something like this?

~~~
etskinner
You're loosely describing BIM (Building information modeling)[1], but you
definitely bring up some novel points that aren't covered by existing BIM
softwares, to my knowledge.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Building_information_modeling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Building_information_modeling)

~~~
ghostly_s
Yeah, this is pretty much what a plethora of punchlisting platforms do
currently, but in the form of annotated photos captured on an iPad and
automatically tagged to the site plan rather than realtime video feeds (which
is both more practical and preferable from a liability standpoint, as the GC
and architect both have incentive to maintain a paper trail of who approved X
change, etc.) The AR angle certainly sounds cool but even aside from the HW
not being there yet, I'm not sure how it would add much value.

~~~
stcredzero
_photos captured on an iPad and automatically tagged to the site plan rather
than realtime video feeds (which is both more practical and preferable from a
liability standpoint, as the GC and architect both have incentive to maintain
a paper trail of who approved X change, etc.)_

There's no reason why the realtime video feed and the voice communication
between the architect and GC couldn't be tagged and timestamped as well.

 _The AR angle certainly sounds cool but even aside from the HW not being
there yet, I 'm not sure how it would add much value._

For plans/models which have some 3D complexity, being able to crane your neck
and move your POV around might be valuable for understanding exactly what's
going on. This might be more applicable to building the 1st iteration of
something like a large jetliner than to a building, though I've heard of
situations in the building of stadiums where this would've been applicable.

The point is really to save the project time by letting the workers ask
clarifying questions quickly, while enabling engineers and architects to
understand the situation quickly, all while communicating in realtime. The
turnaround for answering such questions probably couldn't get faster than
that.

------
exhilaration
I'm confused, throughout the article it mentions _contractors_ being in oil
facilities. But it also says "Orbital receives location data without any
personal identification information and aggregates it."

So how do they know these people are contractors? Or are they just measuring
the raw number of people in the oil facilities?

~~~
eloff
If you have lots of location data say in Houston, and then suddenly in a
refinery that's not in their normal day-to-day location data you could assume
it's a contractor being called into investigate an on-site problem. or if you
detect increased activity from devices that don't have a history on-site. Not
100%, but then they're not going for 100% either.

~~~
kbenson
Step 1: Get list of recent past problems at different refineries from news or
people there after the fact or any number of ways.

Step 2: Get past location data that includes these periods (but spans a much
larger time).

Step 3: Analyze what's different about the problem times compared to normal
operation.

In some cases, it might actually be as simple as X% of work force doesn't come
in for normal shift on what is otherwise a normal day.

~~~
torqueTorrent
The discoveries through big-data analysis and visualizations can be endlessly
counter-intuitive, mindblowingly unpredictable but also dynamic and powerful,
even visceral when you have massively voluminous data that can be fed into
systems like Tableau where you can actively tweak data queries, aggregations,
transformations and visualization types.

The result can often be something akin to: "wow, who could have ever predicted
that this data would extrapolate out to show such a unique visualization or
trend"

------
audiometry
Satellite companies also track shale drilling rigs. There are a few 'stages'
in the lifecycle of drilling rig, with a focus on "DUP" rigs -- drilled but
uncompleted -- which can be brought online on short notice( _). The various
stages of development require crews of different experience or expertise. I
was told that some /a company is able figure out the phone numbers of crews
accustomed to (I think) bringing DUP wells fully online. Then they are able to
monitor as they move around the permian or bakken and assess how many wells
are brought online. I'm not sure that they know phone number (333)2920-2920 is
Frank Jones the Expert, but they do know that the arrival of (333)2920-2920
and a cluster of other numbers is associated with a DUP well turning on
production shortly after.

(_)I'm not very familiar with the shale fracking process, so don't jump on me
for technical inaccuracy.

Also there are many tongue-in-cheek or naive comments about refineries
feigning problems, or knowledge of refinery issues being licenses to print
money in futures. It's not even close.

Many of the important refineries in the US are monitored 24/7 by third party
companies (eg. Genscape) who stare at refineries with thermal cameras. These
immediately notice potential problems, as flaring occurs, or some unit
dramatically changes temp (gets hotter or cooler), updating subscribers in
moments. There are similar services that scrape all the public-warning systems
that refineries must use to inform residents when they have emissions or
problems.

Finally, while no doubt there are times when refinery upsets (particularly for
major gasoline-producing refineries) occur there is an immediate, clear,
exploitable move in futures markets [in fact recently], there are also many
times when that knowledge would have been swamped by some other force. *I
recall reading a few months ago that someone analysed a literal insider
traders' trade history and realized they weren't able to exploit to nearly the
level you'd expect. It just turns out that markets are absurdly complicated.

------
AznHisoka
And the next step in this race will be oil refineries buying a bunch of put
options, then intentionally getting a bunch of strangers with smartphones into
their refineries to trick hedge funds that there is something wrong, then
watching those put options skyrocket. Would that be insider trading?

------
rando444
A clever person could defeat this entire system in a day.

If you look at the graph, currently we're talking about a fluctuation of about
7 devices.

All you'd have to do is set up a handful of devices (or emulate them and spoof
the GPS).. download some sketchy apps, or look for apps that have ties to this
company, to bump the location information up. Then turn the devices on or off,
so that there's never any change.

If I was the oil company I'd probably set up a shell company to buy the data
feed as well so I could get it perfect.

~~~
jedberg
If you're the oil company you probably don't care one bit if a trader is
making money on the price of oil, because it isn't coming out of the oil
companies profits. It's coming from other traders.

~~~
mlevental
if that were true they would just publicize their production numbers

~~~
jedberg
They still don't want their competitors to know how well they're doing or
their suppliers, who might increase their prices if they know the company is
doing well.

------
burger_moon
I wonder if there's companies who sell ELD info similar to other examples
listed in here about carriers and apps selling user info. Having ELD info from
truckers around refineries and drill sites would give you a pretty good
insight as to what's going on.

~~~
BrandonMarc
ELD info?

~~~
knz
Google suggests that it's electronic logging device, which is used to track
transportation regulatory compliance. It likely includes location data.

Top google result - [https://eldfacts.com/eld-
facts/](https://eldfacts.com/eld-facts/)

------
ComodoHacker
'Humans as sensors' could be the next tech "big thing". And 'human body as
power source for gadgets' will follow.

We are closer to The Matrix with each year passed.

~~~
onlyrealcuzzo
How are you sure we aren't already in The Matrix?

------
drozycki
I think many people will agree with me that this kind of data collection is
creepy and unfortunate, but if it's the world we live in then we should try to
use it for good. I'm struggling to think of a way that a non or for-profit
could use aggregate data to predict events in a way that would generally be
considered a net positive to society. Does anything come to mind?

------
SiempreViernes
Well, I must say I didn't expect big corporations would get their "privacy"
violated by tacking apps.

Do you think it's cheaper to just buy back the data or to set up their own
cell towers and block the app traffic?

~~~
C1sc0cat
Or just buy a load of cheap burner phones and fake out the data - use some
cheap drones to make them move around :-)

A bit like some people hire actors to pretend you have more employees.

~~~
nitrogen
_A bit like some people hire actors to pretend you have more employees._

Could you expand on this or link to an example? It seems like this wouldn't be
cost effective (or useful).

~~~
jfim
This is done to simulate popular launches (eg. hire people to wait in line
when your new store or restaurant opens, to give the impression that the new
place is hot) or for faking headcount metrics for investors (eg. hire people
for a day when the investors come, so they can gawk at the open office full of
people).

It's ethically dubious, but if it's done for a day or two, it's not that
expensive compared to actually hiring that many people on a full time basis.

------
pongogogo
Wouldn't it be quicker and more accurate to just survey contracting firms?
Seems massively over engineered and not very reliable.

~~~
httpz
They are traders not oil refinery managers. If a trader has the knowledge that
a refinery is having a problem minutes or even seconds before other traders
they can use that to their advantage and maybe make profit in the market.

------
retube
Perhaps I am being horribly naive, but how is this relocation data being
sourced?

------
C1sc0cat
Why would you allow a mobile phone with its spark hazard any where near an oil
refinery.

~~~
CamperBob2
Probably because no one has ever actually documented sparks caused by mobile
phone RF emissions, at least any in current use. That was essentially a bunch
of pseudoscientific FUD.

[https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/fuelish-
pleasures/](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/fuelish-pleasures/)

Power switches with mechanical contacts on older phones might be a different
story, but again, there's no smoking gun (or flaming refinery) that points to
this having ever been an issue.

~~~
FireBeyond
My thought was that it was always older style cellphones with detachable
batteries, and careless user dropping phone, detaching battery, and -that-
caused a spark, not RF emissions.

------
caprese
sounds like what they really need is an app with 6 choices, and subheading on
when to use the choices

BUY OIL when explosion or war constricts the supply

SELL OIL when new resource is found increasing the supply

BUY OIL COMPANY when new resource is found increasing the supply AND when the
company increases its ability to sell more oil at higher margins

SELL OIL COMPANY when explosion happens on company property

BUY OIL PRICE ETF when you want to go long oil but are too poor/risk averse
for futures contract

SELL OIL PRICE ETF when you want to go short oil but are too poor/risk averse
for futures contract

