
Italian doctors forced to prioritise ICU care for those most likely to survive - onetimemanytime
https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/12/coronavirus-italy-doctors-forced-to-prioritise-icu-care-for-patients-with-best-chance-of-s
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aqme28
Here's what I'm worried about.

Italy has a population of about 60 million. We are expecting "40-70%" of
people to get Coronavirus in the next 6 months or so. The serious symptoms can
last for several weeks. With approximately 15,000 confirmed cases, their
hospitals are completely overrun.

How is Italy going to deal with e.g. 5-10 million concurrent cases?

Note: this applies to every country, not just Italy.

~~~
JumpCrisscross
> _How is Italy going to deal with e.g. 5-10 million concurrent cases?_

By rationing healthcare. You save who you can. And try to ease the suffering
of the rest.

------
raphlinus
Disclosure: I have no public health credentials, but have been following this
carefully. Please be especially careful about information sources. To quote
[1], "There is a ton of bullshit being disseminated. Please do not disseminate
anything you can’t verify. Science must prevail."

It seems inevitable to me that we will be in a similar situation in the US
soon. According to graphs that are all over #epi Twitter and very consistent
with each other (example [2]), we are approximately 11 days behind Italy in
progression. Already in the Seattle area they are finding their capacity
strained[3]. And it is clear it will get considerably worse before it gets
better.

The best projection I have read is [4], by a UCSF expert panel. Key quote: "We
used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5
million Americans may die." but please do read the whole thing for context.

I'm trying to avoid getting to anxious about this, but the facts on the ground
are extremely concerning.

[1]: [https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/dispatch-3-dr-shlain-
reportin...](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/dispatch-3-dr-shlain-reporting-
from-front-lines-shlain-m-d-/)

[2]:
[https://twitter.com/HumeField/status/1237941418909257728](https://twitter.com/HumeField/status/1237941418909257728)

[3]: [https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/short-
staff...](https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/short-staffed-and-
undersupplied-coronavirus-crisis-strains-seattle-areas-capacity-to-deliver-
care/)

[4]: [https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/notes-from-ucsf-expert-
panel-...](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/notes-from-ucsf-expert-panel-
march-10-dr-jordan-shlain-
m-d-/?published=t&trackingId=wicHegWKSkuJBeE6ZUWDPQ%3D%3D)

------
JumpCrisscross
> _Meanwhile, patients are left to die alone after a final video call with
> loved ones.

Dr Cortellaro, head of the emergency room of the Borromeo hospital, told the
Journal.

"Do you see the emergency room? COVID-19 patients enter alone, no relatives
can attend and when they are about to leave they sense it. They are lucid,
they do not go to narcolepsy.

"It is as if they were drowning, but with plenty of time to understand it."_

This is heartbreaking.

We need at least a temporary right to assisted suicide for these patients. It
plays horribly. But the alternative is so cruel.

------
JohnJamesRambo
Good Lord that site is illegible from ads and nonsense on mobile. How did the
internet get this way? I can’t even read what you are trying to say! It’s like
the episode on Aqua Teens.

[https://youtu.be/pBLkLwz4Oyo](https://youtu.be/pBLkLwz4Oyo)

