
Pandemics, Politics, and Beliefs - jfeierabend
https://mebassett.info/pandemic-beliefs.html
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m0llusk
This discussion focuses on the least relevant aspects. There are a range of
options for mitigating the pandemic. These include distancing, washing of
hands and surfaces, masks, antiviral drugs, and vaccines. All of these have
some costs and risks associated as well as varying levels of effectiveness.

Lockdowns, quarantines, and shelter in place orders have been tried at various
levels of strictness at various time and places so we have a lot of data about
their impact on the progress of the pandemic. It is clear that lockdowns are
extremely expensive, but also shift risk around. Traffic is greatly reduced,
but increased speeding balances out the risks. Avoiding prompt treatment for
minor medical problems has as yet unknown risks. Domestic abuse is way up.
Where I live shootings and murders are way up. Viewing murder as primarily an
economic issue seems a strange way of skewing things.

In any case, while there are a range of beliefs and political relationships
these are less relevant and interesting than the actual costs and risks of
different forms of mitigation. Early on we feared exponential spreading but at
this point we have verified that the pattern of spread was the same everywhere
regardless of lockdown or not, and the rate of spread was not only never
exponential but in fact fell everywhere it has been measured. This is well
established epidemiology: lockdowns are only useful if they can contain the
spread of a pathogen. This virus was spread widely by asymptomatic infected
people before the first cases were recognized and diagnosed.

