
Something about the corona virus statistics doesn't add up in the Indian context - TheLastSamurai
https://techtudor.blogspot.com/2020/04/something-about-corona-virus-statistics.html
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maremmano
I read that the gestation period can be longer than 14 days (up to 28 days if
I remember correctly). In addition, a good majority of these cases are
asymptomatic or with very mild symptoms. This may explain a much higher spread
than assumed by the numbers. It can also explain that a large number of cases,
this time symptomatic, are highlighted after so long. Consider that the
population in India is much younger than ours (I'm Italian)* and therefore
this has allowed the virus to go unnoticed for a longer time. This is my guess
obviously.

* [https://www.indexmundi.com/india/demographics_profile.html](https://www.indexmundi.com/india/demographics_profile.html) * [https://www.indexmundi.com/italy/demographics_profile.html](https://www.indexmundi.com/italy/demographics_profile.html)

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TheLastSamurai
Even assuming a gestation period of 28 days, the virus had all the free run to
do its thing from January to March 20th in India, so why it didn't? That's a
mystery. If most people were asymptomatic back then, then why did the virus
specifically choose the time of March end to start showing symptoms in its
hosts across the world (not just in India)?

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rasengan
The author is right to bring up these points. We the people need to open our
eyes and use our minds; don’t believe everything you read but instead decipher
it critically with your mind... and keep the entire big picture in mind.

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aawalton
Umm, he’s missing the obvious explanation that confirmed cases lag actual
cases? Confirmed cases are still going up because testing is going up,
regardless of whether infection is going up.

