
Is This the Light Bulb of the Future?  - newacc
http://gadgetwise.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/24/is-this-the-lightbulb-of-the-future/?ref=technology
======
kevbin
"In several states, such as California, profits are 'decoupled' from
consumption."

Hmmm, I wonder why CA has such unreliable, expensive power?

~~~
camccann
It's probably more that they failed to expand their power generation capacity
to meet demand, then tried to fix the problem by implementing a half-baked
"deregulation" scheme that created a distorted market full of loopholes that
allowed unscrupulous raiders (cf. Enron) to go on a looting spree and wreck
the whole system, and it takes a while to pick up the pieces after a
disastrous mistake.

The moral of the story is that sometimes, "a competitive free market" and "a
stable, regulated public utility" are both local maxima and may have very,
very deep minima between them.

~~~
randallsquared
_[...] sometimes, "a competitive free market" and "a stable, regulated public
utility" are both local maxima and may have very, very deep minima between
them._

QFT.

This is a very, very important point, and one that is usually lost in the
vociferous arguing between those who prefer one pole or the other.

------
ams6110
"Today’s LED-based lamps cost up to $100 each ... Over the long term, we can
absolutely get the cost down to the $20-25 range"

While they do sound better than the abysm that is the compact flourescent
bulb, at that price they're a no-go compared to incandescents that are $0.20 -
$0.25 or less at retail.

~~~
Retric
_10 watts to create the equivalent light of a 60-watt incandescent bulb; the
color of the light output must mimic that of today’s incandescents; and the
bulbs must last at least 25,000 hours_

Assuming 8c / kwh: Energy savings = 50w / 1000 (w/kw) * 25,000h * 0.08 $ / kwh
= 100$. They still stuck compared to CF, but if you keep a light on 24/7 then
these should just about break even compared to incandescents at 100$.

~~~
camccann
How often do people actually do a full-lifetime total cost estimate like that,
instead of just going for what's cheapest right at the moment?

~~~
harpastum
On the other hand, 25,000 hours at 2 hours a day gives the bulb a lifetime of
almost _35 years_. I think you could really sell people on the "just set it
and forget it" model.

~~~
throw_away
on the other hand, what will be the impact on a manufacturer's bottom line
when its customers have no incentive to ever upgrade or replace? maybe they
could just _license_ the light bulbs to end-users... :)

~~~
mhb
Are manufacturers of granite countertops going out of business because of
that?

------
kvs
Good to see gov agencies mimicing NetFlix type contests to speed up innovation
and adoption.

------
jrockway
_Once a winner is chosen, the utilities will help promote and possibly
subsidize the cost of the lamp._

What is the incentive for utility companies to subsidize products that use
less of their product?

------
ars
I'm not surprised at the cost.

The biggest problem with LEDs has been that efficiency drops as the LED is
scaled up in brightness.

Most likely they solved that by placing a very large number of smaller LEDs
together in one bulb.

But it's not going to be easy to reduce the cost when you go that route.

The basic research of making a bright LED efficient has not been solved yet.

~~~
eande
The efficacy drops with junction temperature. Incandescent lamps are at 15
lumen/watt and CFL reach 40 to 50 lumen/watt. LED still has a long way to go
and system efficacy are now reached up to 60lumen/watt. Key players like
Nichia have parts in the lab running close to 200lm/Watt. There are single LED
packages on the market like from www.luminus.com generating 6000lumen in one
part. That is about 8 times of a 60W incandescent light bulb.

Problem is more the LED itself still has a 10cent/lumen cost. Many LED
manufacturer are bringing more and more fabs online and with volume the prices
keeps dropping. So far the Haitz law is still good for the LED world. In the
next 4 years the LED illumination market in the US will go from couple million
dollar to $5B per year and the 60W pulp replacement is expected to be around
$16 retail price. Calculating the energy and invest cost a LED replacement in
4 to 5 years you will have an ROI of less than a year for LED light product.

------
cma
Like platinum catalysts in cars' catalytic convertors, these things will
probably suffer an intial period of widespread theft.

------
dnewcome
I had this funny feeling while reading this, like reading a story about Edison
on Wikipedia. I know it's corny, but the high price tag only seems to
reinforce the similarities in trajectory to early incandescent bulbs, which
probably were just as expensive then.

------
_ck_
I can think of a few more tests they need to do, like turn it on and off
365x10 times in a row and see if it can handle it (most of my LED 110VAC have
not survived more than a year).

Also dimmer capable electronics.

But mass-made mercury-free option would be very nice, I don't use CFLs for
that very reason.

Next they need to do this kind of prize for LiFePo4 batteries, and start using
the huge lithium deposits that are in the USA (owned by Canadian mining
corporations that refuse to mine them until the price is lithium is double
what it is today).

