
Apple Under Siege - co_pl_te
http://www.mondaynote.com/2013/10/06/apple-under-siege/
======
beloch
Apple has experienced periods of decline before. In the mid to late nineties,
before Jobs returned, Apple stuck to polishing OS9, which was simply too
archaic to compete with Windows 95, NT, and subsequent MS OS's of the
nineties. They flip flopped on clones and ultimately maintained a losing
status quo. This era also brought such blunders as the puck mouse, but towards
the end Apple got a bit of a lift from the candy colored iMac. Still, had
Apple not started branching out as they did, the dire predictions were
probably true.

Is Apple in decline today? Their profits don't appear to be. Today's Apple
also has a truly gargantuan nest-egg that could see the company through a
protracted period of difficulty. It's too soon to tell if the company has
become less innovative, but they are in a far superior position now than at
any point in the past. The Apple brand isn't going anywhere for decades.

~~~
DavidSJ
_In the mid to late nineties, before Jobs returned, Apple stuck to polishing
OS9_

Correction: Apple didn't release OS 9 -- or even OS 8 -- until _after_ Jobs
returned.

Perhaps you mean System 7? Actually, Apple barely made any progress on System
7 because nearly all their OS engineers were working on the ill-fated Copland.

 _This era also brought such blunders as the puck mouse, but towards the end
Apple got a bit of a lift from the candy colored iMac_

The hockey puck mouse was also a Jobsism -- part of the iMac release.

~~~
zeckalpha
I heard someone the other day saying that now that Jobs is gone they're
bringing back the hokey colors to the product lines. I told them that it
wasn't until Jobs was back that the colors were introduced and they didn't
believe me.

------
lmarinho
I've recently watched this documentary called 'Jiro Dreams of Sushi'. It is
about this legendary 85-year-old sushi master in Japan and his two sons who
will succeed him in the business. At some point there was an interesting quote
that went along the lines: when Jiro dies, his son will need to be twice as
good as him, if he is "only" just as good, people will think he is worse.

I think this is quite true in the Apple case, there was a "genius" aura around
the Steve Jobs personality that helped inflate the perception of his already
impressive achievements. Without that aura, Apple might be doing just as good
a job as he would do, but people will think worse of them.

Personally, I think that as long as they keep putting out the excellent
quality products they've been releasing lately, pushing into new areas now and
then, they will be just fine for quite some time.

------
Nerdfest
Apple had a few 'first' moments and make some decent hardware. The problem is
that they're much too hung up on making their stuff only work with other Apple
products. They cripple their protocols by tying exclusively to Apple products.
Things like iMessage and FaceTime would be decent products if they opened the
protocols and let others complete. We've come as far as we have because of
open protocols and competition and Apple seems to be afraid to compete on a
level playing field. Most 'geeks' I know recommend that people not buy Apple
because of the lock-in.

~~~
aaronem
> Things like iMessage and FaceTime would be decent products if they opened
> the protocols and let others complete [sic]

And because they do not, they are _excellent_ products.

I met a fellow once who thought I was a fool for using a Macbook Pro. He had
an excellent list of reasons why, complete with multiple hyperlinked
references for each. But I never got to see it; when he woke up his Thinkpad
to show me, all it said was

    
    
      kernel panic - not syncing: for safety
    

and by the time he got it all sorted out, I'd had to leave for a client
meeting. I'm sure he was right, though.

~~~
Iftheshoefits
Meanwhile my Macbook Pro freezes on me regularly (a "hard" freeze requiring a
power cycle). Neither my linux laptop nor my windows (7, home premium) desktop
freeze on me often enough for it to be remarkable (but they both do crash
occasionally). It happens.

Apple's product isn't technology. It's culture. Technology is a marketing tool
they invest heavily in and use to sell their real product. That's one of the
more brilliant things Jobs ever did (and it is remarkably brilliant; the man
can't be admired enough for it, in my opinion, at least from a business
perspective).

Apple's technology works well enough, and the appearance aesthetics are
bleeding edge (usually, for a while, at least), but the zeal with which those
in the culture defend the technology is simply amusing to behold. No
technology is worth such zealous defense.

~~~
aaronem
> No technology is worth such zealous defense.

Tell that to the Linux community.

~~~
Iftheshoefits
I'm part of that community. We aren't all trying to be High Priests of the One
True Technology. I don't think users of Apple products are all part of a Hive
Mind, either.

------
rdl
This amuses me to no end:
[http://www.cringely.com/2012/01/02/prediction-1-a-new-ceo-
fo...](http://www.cringely.com/2012/01/02/prediction-1-a-new-ceo-for-apple/)

That guy (who is pretty consistently wrong on ~everything) predicted Apple,
Facebook, etc. would lose their CEOs in 2012; instead, Tim Cook has done an
amazing job. Steve Jobs even called Cringely to tell him he was wrong on Tim
Cook.

------
mpyne
This may hurt my popularity here but our family actually just bought a Win8
touchscreen for my wife to replace her Win7 laptop.

She had kind of wanted Apple kit, but the Price was Wrong, and the Metro^W
"Windows 8 Modern U/I" interface was actually more appealing to her than the
checkerboard-of-apps approach.

Although I think the thing that drove her decision in the end was the
educational and other Windows-only apps, which is kind of ironic...
educational apps are the reason we have an iPad in the first place.

~~~
gibwell
Was she considering an Apple laptop, or an iPad?

Are the educational apps ones for her to use herself, or ones she'll use for
teaching kids?

Also, are they apps she already has and wants to keep running, or ones she
will buy now that she has the new machine? Finally are they Metro Apps, or
traditional windows apps?

~~~
mpyne
She was considering a "real" computer, yes.

Ones she'll use for her own kids, but not for teaching per se.

Yes, Maybe, None Yet, Yes.

------
tytso
There will always be pundits on both sides of these sorts of arguments. In the
early 90's, there were lots of people predicting IBM's imminent break-up. In
2011, Tomi Ahonen was claiming that despite everyone claiming that Nokia was
under siege, it was still the world's largest seller of Smartphones (since he
considered Symbian a Smartphone OS), while others were claiming that Nokia was
doomed.

Time is the only way we can tell which of the pundits were right, and which
(in retrospect) sounded like idiots.

~~~
blinkingled
I think this is exactly the right way to put the whole debate to rest! Who
knows what Apple has up its sleeves - they still got Jony Ive, they still got
a ton of money to just keep going at things. That may result in greater
products, or they may become like Microsoft - perpetually trying. Really, only
time will tell, but I just don't think they'll fail spectacularly in the near
future.

BTW, good to see you posting somewhat frequently on HN Ted!

------
exo_duz
According to the people after Jobs' death was that Apple will ride the wave,
then decline. just like Dell after Michael Dell left. Larry Ellison said the
same thing the other day in an interview (but not sure whether to believe him
or not, Ellison being Ellison and all).

Although Apple was never perfect even with Jobs (remember Antenna gate) and
other issues but he was a visionary, he saw things which a lot of people
didn't. But although people always thought of him as the brains you also have
to see that he has a great team behind him.

Apple might be in decline now from the $800 per share at their peak but is
this how a company is measured? I believe that even though they have not
produced anything revolutionary in the past few years does not mean they are
in decline. One cannot simply create revolutionary ideas every year. It's all
incremental.

iPod touch was the testing platform for the iPhone and in turn it was the
platform for the iPad.

What's next? I think I'll sit here and wait for it. I still think that they
are still capable of something great based on the current team of executives
at the head of Apple. They aren't sitting on their laurels with a sales person
as their CEO. When the day comes that Apple does that I might change my tune,
but for now I will still be as excited for an Apple event as I used to be.

------
marze
There is significant press attention given to the appearance of the Apple's
products and market share stats, but Apple's real focus is on the software
inside the devices, and on the developer base and applications available.

The most important weapon in the battle for the approaching mobile device
world will be to get the best quality applications on your platform. Apple is
winning this battle, application quantity and quality, and the press does not
seem to give much attention to this most critical aspect. Something like three
of every four dollars spent on mobile applications now goes to iOS apps, and
head to head comparisons of the most popular mobile applications show the iOS
versions are clearly of higher quality.

Apple has a monopoly on selling devices that run the huge iOS base of
applications, and this should continue to allow them to sell their hardware at
nice margins. They've stayed focused on building the developer community and
APIs, with the goal of building a library of applications of the highest
quality, and raining cash on their developer community. Apple goes for the win
while most everyone is distracted by insignificant stats like market share.

------
joshlegs
>I consider him the greatest creator and editor of products this industry has
ever known,

are you effing serious? Greatest creator my ass. He took already built
products and refined the hell out of them. Shit, he practically built the
company on top of Wozniak's back.

~~~
vvhn
could you give examples of the claimed existing products and how the apple
products are "just refinements" of those ?

------
Oletros
Using Philip Elmer-DeWitt and Daniel Eran Dilger as source of arguments say a
lot of the author, not worth reading.

~~~
gibwell
Founding and running a company that made highly respected computers _and_ a
highly respected OS is an extremely rare achievement that makes him highly
qualified to comment on the industry. Perhaps his opinion of these reporters
should be taken as an indication that they should be listened to.

------
gibwell
The arguments for Apple's failure seem to focus on what Apple isn't doing,
rather than what it is doing.

E.g.

\- they aren't establishing or milking a monopoly \- they aren't making
commodity hardware \- they aren't engaging in predatory pricing

What these things have in common is that they are easy to understand.

The general negative commentary seems to be of the form "We can understand
what everyone else is doing, but we don't understand what Apple is doing,
therefore Apple must be doing nothing."

There's nothing new about this. The only difference when Steve Jobs was alive
was that they could say 'We don't understand what Apple is doing, but Steve
Jobs is a genius so that explains their success."

~~~
lake99
> \- they aren't establishing or milking a monopoly - they aren't making
> commodity hardware - they aren't engaging in predatory pricing

Huh? Yes, they are! A patent is a monopoly [1]. They did not invent this
rotten system, but they sure are milking it for all it's worth. Not engaging
in predatory pricing? Do you know how much Microsoft and Apple demand of
Android manufacturers to let them keep their features?

[1]: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government-
granted_monopoly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government-granted_monopoly)

~~~
huxley
Predatory pricing occurs when you sell a product at such low prices that it
deters other companies from entering the market. Apple has many flaws but that
isn't one of them.

You are correct that patents are considered a form of monopoly, but that is a
different sense of the word than what the OP refers to, that is, holding a
monopoly over a particular good or market. Apple doesn't have a monopoly in
any of the markets it participates in and there are plenty of substitute goods
and competitive corporations within the same markets.

~~~
lake99
> Predatory pricing occurs when you sell a product at such low prices ...

Thanks for correcting me on that. I was mistaken.

> but that is a different sense of the word than what the OP refers to ...

I am aware of that.

> Apple doesn't have a monopoly in any of the markets it participates in ...

The market is broader than just the end-users of phones. Share markets,
patents, deals with collaborators (such as network operators, music
companies), and bribes (mostly in less developed countries) are just as much a
part of the market as end-users.

~~~
gibwell
> The market is broader than just the end-users of phones. Share markets,
> patents, deals with collaborators (such as network operators, music
> companies), and bribes (mostly in less developed countries) are just as much
> a part of the market as end-users.

Please explain how any of this applies to Apple's business. At it stands it
sounds like innuendo.

~~~
lake99
I wasn't talking specifically of Apple here. I was talking about the ways in
which markets may have nothing to do with end-users.

> Apple are doing nothing different from their competitors with regard to
> patents.

This is absolutely wrong. Some companies are more aggressive than others when
it comes to abusing patent, trade dress, and copyright laws. How many trade
dress lawsuits have you seen Samsung, LG, HTC, etc. initiate against Apple? In
the recent past, a handful of Apple's patents were invalidated because of
prior art. How many companies filed lawsuits against Apple when iPhone
implemented these features?

~~~
babesh
Many: Samsung, Motorola, Nokia, etc...

[http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-14/nokia-apple-
payment...](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-14/nokia-apple-payments-to-
nokia-settle-all-litigation.html)

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Inc._litigation](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Inc._litigation)

~~~
lake99
I guess you haven't seen [http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2012/02/if-
android-is-a-s...](http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2012/02/if-android-is-a-
stolen-product-then-so-was-the-iphone/) or
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LG_Prada#iPhone_controversy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LG_Prada#iPhone_controversy)

Like I said, some companies are more aggressive than others. Odd that you
mentioned Samsung.

~~~
gibwell
You claimed that other companies don't litigate the things that Apple does,
and he proved you wrong.

~~~
lake99
Evidently, you both need to work on your reading comprehension.

------
w1ntermute
> Scan Philip Ellmer-DeWitt’s Apple 2.0 or John Gruber’s Daring Fireball and
> treat yourself to intelligent repudiations

The minute that I saw "Gruber" and "intelligent" in the same sentence was the
minute I knew that this post was full of shit. If someone is so blinded by the
reality distortion field that they can't see that Gruber is nothing more than
a 3rd party PR person who trades insider info on Apple for pushing out
propaganda on a regular basis, then I just can't take them seriously.

~~~
gibwell
Do you know anything about the author?

~~~
w1ntermute
Nope, just looked him up. Apparently he was an Apple exec in the 80s. Your
point is?

~~~
gibwell
He also later founded and ran an Apple competitor that built highly respected
computers _and_ a highly respected OS.

Dismissing this person's opinion simply because they don't agree with an
unsubstantiated attack on Gruber makes no sense.

