
NYC Has Its First Day in Months with No Covid-19 Deaths - chirau
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/13/890427225/nyc-has-its-first-day-in-months-with-no-covid-19-deaths
======
salmon30salmon
This seems to be evidence of the theory that herd immunity is lower than
expected due to cross-reactive T-cells lowering the susceptible pool. If I
recall correctly, the last serology study of NYC showed ~25% infection rate,
which is right where those postulating this theory expect the virus to burn
out at.

While this isn't the only ingredient, and physical distancing and awareness
play a role, it is good to see more and more locations exhibit the same burn-
out pattern. I do not think that there is a single location thus far that does
_not_ show this pattern (including Sweden!). The biggest potential outlier is
Iran. However, Iran has some similarities to the United States in that a
majority of the population lives within dispersed population centers. As such,
we should look at each _region_ (as opposed to the country as a whole), when
considering the theory above. Much as we must do with the United States. Miami
is on it's first wave, as is Houston etc.

What I am really looking for is any evidence of a true second wave, and thus
far there hasn't been any. And NYC would be ripe for one. Due to its density,
even with the best of intentions, there will be close contact and opportunity
to spread the virus.

Long story short, this is very, very, very good news.

EDIT: I want to add, that the refusal many people to see the United States as
as collection of different outbreaks as opposed to a single, massive outbreak
is very frustrating. We can't have an honest conversation regarding the best
response to this virus when everyone is trying to score nation-state points
over the fact that the US still has cases. Yes, the first region is _not_
seeing a resurgence. The outbreaks in the South are _new_. They sprang up in
the past few weeks. This is fundamentally different than what we saw in the
EU, as each country had their outbreaks at around the same time. If you want
to compare, compare NY state to others. We can't make progress if continue to
be either smug/defensive. This isn't a game.

Additional Reading:

Swedish T-Cell study: [https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19-is-probably-
higher-t...](https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19-is-probably-higher-than-
tests-have-shown)

NYC Serology: [https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/preliminary-
antibodies-...](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/preliminary-antibodies-
study-shows-21-of-new-york-city-infected)

Study from Levitt et. al.:
[https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.26.20140814v...](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.26.20140814v2.full.pdf)

Study in Cell on T-Cells:
[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009286742...](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867420306103)

~~~
mzgaljic
I urge you to temper your positivity, and reconsider the timeline for a “2nd
wave”. Note in the 1918 influenza pandemic, the 2nd wave occurred in the FALL
of the following year. If history repeats itself, we may see a 2nd wave in the
fall of 2020. Time will tell.

“ The influenza pandemic in the United States occurred in three waves during
1918 and 1919. The first wave began in March 1918 and lasted throughout the
summer of 1918. The more devastating second and third waves (the second being
the worst) occurred in the fall of 1918 and the spring of 1919.”

[https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-
deve...](https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-
development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf)

~~~
salmon30salmon
I understand the hesitation, and I think even those that are excited by this
theory are stoic towards history. However, one thing to note is that this is
_not_ the Flu. The influenza virus often mutates far more, far quicker than
coronaviruses do. There is certainly reason to be cautious, but there is also
reason to be optimistic.

~~~
mzgaljic
That’s a fair point - the mutation speed is different. I hope you’re right,
but yes, i’m feeling cautious.

------
taxicabjesus
My brother had a temperature and got tested for the SARS-CoV-2, which came
back positive. He sheltered away from his pregnant wife, and survived. His
wife got tested too, but her test came back negative. Then she had the
antibody test, which came back positive.

My working hypothesis is she got the virus and exposed my brother, or they
were both exposed at the same time & she was asymptomatic on account of the
biochemistry of pregnancy, sorta like all those asymptomatic women who tested
positive after they showed up at the hospital in NYC to give birth [6].

NYC took COVID-19 on the chin because the doctors hadn't yet figured out that
ventilators aren't needed when the patient is capable of breathing on their
own.

This article is the pinnacle of single-variable thinking. What is NYC going to
do when the sun goes away for the winter, and coronavirus season comes roaring
back? I'm sure the media will castigate the public for daring to take off
their masks.

Dr. Zelenko had a good point: patients showed up in his office after 3-5 days
of symptoms. It was easy to tell if the patient probably had COVID-19. Why
wait another 3 days for a test to come back positive [5], when you can just
start treatment the same day with zinc [3], an anti-inflammatory antibiotic
(azithromycin), and a zinc ionophore [4]? He said it's about $20 for his
course of treatment, whereas if he'd waited for a positive test before
initiating treatment the patient would have certainly deteriorated to the
point they needed to be hospitalized.

IMHO the United States' medical industry has a tremendous financial incentive
to do the most-expensive/least-effective interventions [2], and educates their
worker-bee physicians accordingly.

[1]
[https://twitter.com/zev_dr/status/1280978415131267084](https://twitter.com/zev_dr/status/1280978415131267084)
(edit: was originally just a link to @zev_dr, then I found the specific tweet
with the video about Dr. Zelenko using his clinical judgement to initiate
treatment early.)

[2]
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21728864](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21728864)

[3] Zn2+ Inhibits Coronavirus and Arterivirus RNA Polymerase Activity In Vitro
and Zinc Ionophores Block the Replication of These Viruses in Cell Culture -
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2973827/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2973827/)

[4]
[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=medcram+zinc+io...](https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=medcram+zinc+ionophore)

[5]
[https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202007.0025/v1](https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202007.0025/v1)

[6] [https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-in-pregnant-woman-
hi...](https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-in-pregnant-woman-high-
nyc.html)

(edit1: changed the link from @zev_dr to a specific tweet) (edit2: mostly
minor changes)

