
The childless, aging future - wyldfire
https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-am-c7902702-0ed3-46b0-97ba-77a77cd1d16c.html?
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LarryL
The article is quite interesting, it sums up many numbers and projections I
had read in several places.

But there are 2 other interesting factors to an aging society that they did
not mention:

\- what will the retirees (~60+ y/o) do with their time? Not a small issue,
I'm not thinking about economical consequences but simply social consequences
& people's well-being. For some people, their job means A LOT, and once they
retire, they don't know what to do. My dad is an example: R&D engineer, worked
a lot until he retired, nowadays he just roams around the house (a sad view).

\- what is going to be the impact of such a huge number of older people on the
moral views & technical progress? As you know, many older people grow more &
more conservative ("stuck in their ways") or even reactionary as they age.
This creates a serious number of potential issues with social progress and
probably technological as well. Older people are often "left behind" by new
technologies & social changes. This was not a major problem when they were a
small minority, but once they'll become a not so small minority, their voices
will be heard much more. I wonder if this could not lead to some stagnation or
at least a slowdown in some areas/subjects (things like gay marriage,
acceptance of alternative sexualities, etc.), or -at worst- a throw-back in
some areas (look how HARD sexual freedom -in the broadest sense- has been hit
those last 10 to 15 years, will you expect conservative/reactionary people to
hold liberal views on that?).

~~~
eezurr
>what will the retirees (~60+ y/o) do with their time?

Depends on the country. In countries that place importance on family (e.g.
central/south america), I assume they will be content with helping their
children raise their children (i.e. grandchildren).

In the US the decline of communal activities (including religion), culture of
independence, and people associating their identity with their job seems like
a recipe of disaster to me. A coexistence of entitlement and boredom creates
an addictive poison. If you've ever worked in customer service before, you
deal with these people every day.

~~~
ansible
I've got a dozen hobbies that I don't have enough time for now. Plenty to do,
watch and read. I'd probably also have a go at building a greenhouse to grow
more of my own food.

~~~
natalyarostova
I'm right there with you. The world is so incredible!! I could work 70 hours a
week on my own hobbies. I've never even though of building a green house; but
I bet it would be a ton of fun. There is so much to see and do, how do people
become bored and listless.

------
Simon_says
I've sometimes thought that it might be nice in an abstract sense to have
kids. I'm sure there are some nice moments. But in practice whenever I see my
friends with kids, they look so beleaguered and complain about never having
time. I just think: Who needs it?

I think typical people have a real blind spot to the incredible personal costs
to having kids. Something about it makes them forget about or discount the bad
times and keeps them from dispassionately weighing the pros and cons of having
kids. Many (for whatever reason) will simply not realize there is a choice at
all.

Having kids is such a hassle, that to me it's no wonder that people are opting
out once effective birth control came onto the scene.

Edit: @codersbrew (to whom I can't reply because your comment is dead) I don't
understand why you think my opinions are short-sighted; I actually think
they're the opposite. Also, people without kids have to be able to form
opinions about having kids, otherwise how could anyone make an informed choice
about it? And if it's an actual, real, choice, people can make either
decision. I'm not sure if my opinion is correct either, but it's all I got.

~~~
kelnos
From what I can tell, people's desire to have kids is like how many react to
religion: it's beaten into our brains from a very young age that it's the
right thing to do, the only true path through adulthood and life, "real men"
sire children and "real women" bear them. Pressure throughout adult life
continues to reinforce it: parents wanting grandchildren (and using guilt in
order to persuade), parent friends wanting you to "join their club", others
playing the fear card and asking who will take care of you when you're old.

Until recently, it's been taboo to talk about reproductive desires (or the
lack thereof), the very real (often permanent) toll pregnancy takes on women,
and the personal, career, and financial sacrifices parents must make to raise
children responsibly. (And there's still a persistent stigma around discussing
the negatives of child-rearing.) Many parents will even get aggressively
defensive if you express a desire not to have your own kids, as if your
decision has some negative effect on them.

That kind of conditioning is hard to shake off, and many people don't even
seriously realize (outside of the abstract) that not having a kid is even an
option.

~~~
programmarchy
You do realize having kids is a biological necessity to continue life, yes?

There would be no careers and financials to worry about if people didn’t
exist. And there’s no reason to put those things on a pedestal, because they
won’t matter once you’re dead.

Choosing not to have kids is effectively genetic suicide. Your DNA will be a
dead end on the evolutionary scale.

For someone like me who enjoys life, seems odd that you wouldn’t want to
create new life to pass down the experience to your children. That’s why it
seems selfish and short sighted to me.

~~~
Simon_says
That's what you DNA "wants". Are you a slave to your DNA?

~~~
programmarchy
I think we are all slaves to DNA to the extent it determines our genetic
makeup. In terms of having kids, like I said, I enjoy life and so I naturally
want to pass down the experience of life to my children.

There is a biological “want” built-in of course (oxytocin, etc.) but it’s
something I consciously want, too. So, no I’m not completely enslaved by my
DNA.

I see myself in the context of my past and future, and I want to actively
continue my chain of existence through my children. In comparison to that,
extra free time and money seem trivial to me.

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patrickg_zill
Growing up in Canada (now living in usa) every student was propagandized about
how population growth was bad, etc.

Now we are told how much immigration is indispensable i.e. more people are
needed.

Were we lied to?

~~~
CapitalistCartr
In Asia, population growth is a problem. Canada can benefit from more people.
Vast tracts of empty land; vast, still-untapped natural resources; 37 million
people in 9 million square km.; sound infrastructure; educated, productive
populace.

India has about 1.3 billion people in under 3.3 million square km. with 1/6
Canada's per capita GDP. Population is a huge problem for them.

If Canada were to double its population in this century, they'd probably be
better off. If the World does, we'll be screwed.

~~~
patrickg_zill
The actual arable land is much less, however. As well as habitable land, that
is, places most people would feel comfortable living in year-round.

Agricultural yields per acre or hectare are often less than in the USA, as
well.

------
forkLding
Interested to see that the top ten shrinking countries on Earth are all in
East Europe. Any Eastern Europeans here that can attest to the impact of this?

~~~
nadiasotnikova
I'm from Belarus. There's lots of propaganda around having more children. Our
president regularly says that women should stop having careers and start
making more children.

Lots of people are leaving Belarus, but since we're not in EU and it's not as
easy to leave, I don't think it's the main factor.

Education levels are very high in Belarus. Check out these stats.
[https://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/belarus_statistics.html](https://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/belarus_statistics.html)
Literacy rates are close to 100% and majority of women get higher education.

Belarus has a very poor economy and low salaries (families can't afford to
have more than 1 child).

And finally, a lot of people are dying. Alcoholism issues are pretty big, a
lot of men die young for example. Women would have to have looots of babies to
offset the mortality rate.

It's probably a combination of all of these factors and more.

~~~
AdamM12
> Alcoholism issues are pretty big, a lot of men die young for example.

Not surprising given this is happening also in the states in non college
educated males.

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eric_b
The gist of this seemed to be that we need to either allow unrestricted
immigration, mainly from Africa, or up our robot game.

So really, if the "robots are going to take all our jobs" people are correct,
we should just stay the course? Since we'll need those robots soon?

~~~
mantas
Or promote having kids. Just think if all of those money and propaganda for
migrants was used for families with kids.

~~~
marcelluspye
I don't know if you've read the news, but a lot of those migrants being made
into ``propaganda" are families with kids.

~~~
mantas
I was talking about promoting locals to have kids to fix their own societies.
Instead of leeching off other countries.

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fallingfrog
It's probably for the best, for now at least. At these very gradual population
decline rates we don't have to worry about humans going extinct for a long
time, and in the meantime we'll take pressure off a lot of critically
overexploited resources.

~~~
MisterOctober
this topic always reminds me of David Benatar's "Better Never To Have Been,"
wherein he lays out a moral and practical case for general cessation of human
reproduction. [Famously condensed by Matthew McConaughey in a 'True Detective'
monologue.]

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dghughes
I breezed over the article but I did see longevity mentioned.

My parents are in their mid 70s and they are more active and independent than
their parents were. Even my Dad sick with COPD is quite active.

My Dad's father died at 52 his mother at 64, both were smokers. My mother's
parents lived to age 96 for her dad and late 80s for her mother. Neither
smoked both ate mainly vegetables, small portions, but were not vegetarian.

I can recall my mother's parents being in a retirement home in their early
70s. But contrast that with my own parents the difference is quite dramatic.

I can see it with my own generation (Gen X) many do not have kids, neither do
I. And it seems Millenials the "childfree trend is a thing.

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AdamM12
The only reason this is an issue is because of how governments setup the
social security system. Each generation should have to pay for their own
retirement not the next. Manufactured issue imo.

~~~
awinder
I agree with the manufactured bit, but given that generations are fluid, and
alternative policies exist for realigning bad tax policy (inheritance tax), i
fail to see any kind of grand problem. SS in the US will run up to a 10
trillion dollar deficit in a country with, currently, 240 trillion in assets?
And a military that spends half a trillion a year without that total being a
problem? Yeah, I call BS.

~~~
AdamM12
I also have an issue with our military spending but this post is in the
context of SS so that is what I was discussing. Unreasonable expectation to
have to list all the different issues with the govs spending. At some point
the gov needs to get its spending together because it will just lead to
massive austerity on its citizens.

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epx
Society made incredibly risky to have kids, or even marry. You are culprit of
an infinite number of crimes unless you prove yourself innocent all the time.
What could go wrong?

~~~
mac01021
> You are culprit of an infinite number of crimes unless you prove yourself
> innocent all the time.

I don't understand. What crimes are these？

~~~
epx
Domestic abuse, misogyny, intellectual abandonment (in case you don't spend
your last penny giving your kids the absolute best trips and toys), there is a
_whole industry_ dedicated to make you feel belittled and a failure,
especially if you are a man (but there is a lot in this store for women, too).
The pressure comes from the least expected places - your own parents, for
example.

