
Obituary: Great Barrier Reef - CurtHagenlocher
http://www.outsideonline.com/2112086/obituary-great-barrier-reef-25-million-bc-2016
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triplesec
This article commits a grave rhetorical error. The reef is not all dead (about
25% irreversibly I believe) but will be soon unless we stop most emissions.
They don't make this clear at all. This leads readers to ignore and shy away
from the issue further because we think it's too late. Humans like to pretend
bad news isn't there and will jump on any excuse for cognitive avoidance.

~~~
sirtaj
The ocean reacts to temperature changes in the order of decades. The effect of
things we do today will only really be apparent in approx. 20 years. Even if
by some stroke of universal good sense we stop global warming today (this is
not going to happen, of course), this only gives us hope for whatever's left
unbleached at that time.

~~~
triplesec
That's a good point, but nonetheless the article doesn't provide any figures
or estimates. So other readers can point to the continued life on the reef and
say 'lies', and bury their heads in the sand too. Even if it will all be dead
in 20 years, or 40. The article talks of 450[units] carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere. We're at 400 now. No data on when we get there nor graphs or
estimates of when the rest dies off.

~~~
jfoutz
Roughly 50 ppm per 30 years. Early 50s was 300 ppm. That seemed to be the
upper limit for a long time. There are a bunch of graphs around. It's seasonal
and has a hint of an exponential.

1000 ppm starts affecting performance from co2 poisoning.

~~~
antisthenes
2015 was the first year we broke 3 ppm in a year.

Average for the last decade was ~2.25ppm/y

1000ppm by 2100 is probably not going to happen, but considering the
significant lag behind the effects, it's starting to look more and more likely
that we will hit 1000ppm at some high point, perhaps in the 22nd century,
before it starts going down again.

Regarding the _poisoning_ comment, that's not very accurate. It's true, there
is reduced performance at high CO2 levels, but 1000 is probably the lowest
bound for the most sensitive people and the effects aren't really noticeable
until high teens. You can still function indefinitely at those levels.

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theGimp
_[The Australian Government] shortly after approving the largest coal mine in
its history, successfully pressured the United Nations to remove a chapter
about the reef from a report on the impact of climate change on World Heritage
sites. Australia’s Department of the Environment explained the move by saying,
“experience had shown that negative comments about the status of World
Heritage-listed properties impacted on tourism.” In other words, if you tell
people the reef is dying, they might stop coming._

It's the other way around. If you tell people the reef is dying, they go en
masse, which contributes to the bleaching greatly.

~~~
niftich
The true answer is likely more complex. Australia is one of the top coal
producers in the world, has one of the largest reserves of coal in the world,
and coal's share in electricity generation and exports is very high.

Ranking high on various quality-of-life indices, Australia's government is
wise to protect coal's continued role in the economic system of the country.
Sadly, drawing too much attention to the association between climate change,
the Great Barrier Reef, and Australia's role in perpetuating climate change in
its own (front)yard hurts its economic outlook and energy independence, which
are valuable attributes in a world with dwindling resources. It's a shame that
this maneuvering has to occur at the expense of the Reef.

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jsingleton
The modern reef is relatively recent (thousands of years) and has been land
during human history. There are aboriginal stories that recount when it
rapidly flooded at the end of the last ice age, which may be more than just
legends. This fate could await many of our coastal cities given the thermal
expansion of the oceans (let alone if a large land-based ice sheet melts).

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Barrier_Reef#Geology_and...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Barrier_Reef#Geology_and_geography)

~~~
mathattack
More than just legends. In the last ice age, people could walk much of what it
now the Pacific Ocean.

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kodroid
Ignoring the errors in the article, what can we do? Due to the selfishness and
shortsightedness of our race, I think the only way we are not totally screwed
is if we (quickly) invent some tech that cleans up the atmosphere and oceans -
not an easy task!

~~~
Cthulhu_
I don't like the "our race" generalisation, not when there's so many people
committed to reducing carbon emissions and what-have-you; billions, if not
trillions are being invested in creating clean alternatives, projects get both
community and government support everywhere, countries are banning coal power
plants and promoting and subsidising solar, wind and water power, big
scientific teams are dedicating their lives on making nuclear fusion feasible,
consumers and companies are encouraged to use electric cars or penalised for
using fossil fuel cars, etc etc etc.

There's also still some establishments that keep the economy and power grid
going, but they'll be gone within 50 years if this keeps up. There's also
rising economies that don't give a fuck because they're trying to catch up
with the rest of the world.

So yeah, I guess I take offense to blaming everyone. I see this "baw humanity
sucks" far too much - that's both insulting to yourself (do you suck? are you
causing climate change?) and to those that try and make things better for all
of us.

~~~
kodroid
> I don't like the "our race" generalisation, , not when there's so many
> people committed to reducing carbon emissions and what-have-you...

From my perspective, on the whole, there are much less people who are
providing even part of a solution than there are who are contributing to the
problem. The race as a whole has an extremely negative impact on the planet
and its co-habiting species. I am extremely indebted to those who have devoted
their lives to finding solutions to this problem, but they seem to me very
much the minority.

> There's also still some establishments that keep the economy and power grid
> going, but they'll be gone within 50 years if this keeps up. There's also
> rising economies that don't give a fuck because they're trying to catch up
> with the rest of the world.

Yup. Most of the major governments around the world and the largest
corporations. Many of the rising economies are in this positing due to the
selfishness of the historical actions of the leaders of countries with strong
economies.

> So yeah, I guess I take offense to blaming everyone. I see this "baw
> humanity sucks" far too much..

Well, it think it is the majorities fault at the moment. Yes its not a
productive viewpoint, but an accurate one.

> that's both insulting to yourself (do you suck? are you causing climate
> change?) and to those that try and make things better for all of us.

"suck" is your wording, but yes I am selfish in terms of my environmental
impact, much like the average person in any developed nation. I engage in
activities which have negative effects on the environment without balancing
these effects. From the thousands of people I have met in my life, I cant
think of one who has a positive net effect on the environment - hence, people
are stupid, including me :p

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femto
Also covered this week on Catalyst, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's
weekly science magazine show. Catalyst agrees with this article: the news
ain't good. Prof. Terry Hughes, Director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for
Coral Reef Studies seemed especially pessimistic. Catalyst's website has an
extended interview with him.

[http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/4553792.htm](http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/4553792.htm)

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woodandsteel
Over the years I have seen about a thousand comments, blog posts, articles,
etc that deny that human activity is causing the climate to get warmer.

But I don't think I have ever seen even one from the same crowd that denies
that human activity is causing the oceans to become more acidic. I guess they
know it's true, but don't want to admit it.

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caub
Well, in a world where there are probably more pets than wild animals,
cigarette smokers, overconsumption, nature can't really survive durably

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infradig
The Reef is doing just fine, folks.

~~~
raytracer
Did you forget `/s`?

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aplomb
All living things have a beginning and end. If humans are around in 25mm
years, there will no doubt be other forms of life to celebrate and enjoy.

~~~
kyriakos
The issue is that we caused the death, it didn't come naturally.

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functoriality
What is the difference?

~~~
throwaway-hn123
So you're ok with the thought of someone shooting and killing you tomorrow?
You're going to die anyway, what's the difference?

