

Hybrid cars on the decline - kirpekar
http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/30/autos/hybrid_car_sales/index.htm?iid=HP_Highlight&hpt=hp_c2

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RobLach
I never quite understood hybrid cars other than buying them as an indirect
donation to pursue hybrid technology. Hybrids are worse for the environment
than regular plain-ole' ICE cars and don't really give you much of an
efficiency boost.

Diesel engines are right up there with hybrids in the fuel efficiency game.
Take for instance to VW Polo BlueMotion which is rated 70mpg+ Highway. The
Passat BlueMotion is worse but still an impressive 57mpg+ Highway.

Also consider that some biodiesel fuels are near 100% carbon neutral (such as
hemp-based biodiesels), in that they sequester as much carbon dioxide from the
air as they will eventually burn into once combusted.

~~~
3am
Hey, I've heard that claim that hybrids are worse for the environment than
pure internal combustion engines. Honestly I don't see how that's possible and
I've never seen read anything that supports it. But I'm not an expert - do you
have a source or can you explain it?

~~~
sounds
Here are some places to start. You really need to research to come to a solid
conclusion (your _own_ conclusion).

[http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20090419130916AA...](http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20090419130916AAYkRdW)

[http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20071028204335AA...](http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20071028204335AAyBECY)

<http://www.hybridcars.com/battery-toxicity.html>

~~~
3am
I did google it already (and found some of those links, though I appreciate
you passing them along). I know a fair amount about the subject matter, I was
just looking for a real expert (maybe an electric/chemical/industrial engineer
that worked in the area) here, in case my conclusions were incorrect.

The internet is great and all, but it breeds altogether too many fake
wikipedia SMEs :)

~~~
sounds
I have engineering training. But to really tell you whether the Prius is an
improvement or not over a non-hybrid Corolla -- I'd need engineering data
Toyota isn't going to release.

And just narrowing it to that comparison is going to turn off a lot of people.

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icefox
I am one of those in the article. A few years ago I needed a new car, running
the math it wasn't a fantastic deal and I could get a _much_ nicer car
(performance, looks, style, sound, features) for the same total price. I also
said "maybe the next one with be a hybrid/electric".

~~~
pkulak
My math said the opposite, actually. Factoring in the $50 (minimum) a month
saved in gas, and my payment was about the same for a Prius or a
Corolla/Civic. Plus, fluctuations in the price of gas effect me far less and
in the end, my car is still worth more than a non-hybrid car, if I were to
sell it.

A car is an investment. A lousy one, but you still can't think of it only
based total price vs features. You have to consider depreciation and operating
costs more than upfront price.

~~~
icefox
Back in 2008 when I bought my car the used Prius's were going for almost the
price of a new one. This seemed like a short term fad of near zero
depreciation and unwise to bet that it would stay that way. The Prius was
really the only game in town at the time, gas prices were high, but it was
clear that there would be plenty of new hybrids in the coming years.

After hunting around for less than the price as a Prius (used or new) I got a
barely used 6 speed manual G35 with all of the bells and whistles (15K miles,
very clean engine, good find). The fact that it only gets ~22MPG in the peek
of expensive gas might have been part of the reason I got it for so cheap.
There is no debate that a G35 beats the pants of of a Civic or Corolla any
day. Doing the math of $500 savings in gas a year I still have a few more
years before it would have been cheaper to buy a Prius based upon the price
difference.

I have had no garage work on my G35 other than the standard oil change etc. To
make things simple I will assume that the Prius would have been just as good.
(How often do you have to change the battery?)

I just looked up on kbb A brand new 2008 Prius would only be worth ~$400 more
than my used G35 if I sold it today. So the math no matter how I look at it
worked out for me and I got a nicer car to drive the past few years.

But the real lesson I have seen over and over which is that any time someone
runs the math they have different variables. If I were to buy a car today the
used Prius's have actually dropped in price so that estimate is completely
different that a few years ago, gas is now cheaper, I probably couldn't find
that G35 again, and now there are other hybrids to compare against.

~~~
pkulak
Well, you're comparing new to used. Used is _always_ a better financial
decision when you're buying a car (unless, I suppose, gas spikes and you want
a hybrid, haha). But even with that working against you, the Prius would be
worth more now and you would have saved thousands in gas.

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EiZei
Hybrids look even less attractive in Europe. For example a VW Golf Bluemotion
consumes actually less fuel on the average with highway consumption being
significantly less and top of that diesel is still slightly cheaper than
gasoline. Even with a vehicle tax rebate meaning 300-500 euros less per year
the Prius doesn't seem such a great buy.

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rbranson
I like how the article basically says the Prius does very well because it's so
conspicuous. Sounds about right.

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xpose2000
It's a down economy, and a hybird costs more than a 'regular' car. Hybrid's
also have the potential to be confusing, like how many REAL miles can the Leaf
do? I still don't trust batteries to keep a full charge after 6 months, just
ask my cell phone. (I realize there are other hybrids, just an example).

Plus those regular cars do a lot better on gas nowadays than they ever have.

~~~
PakG1
The Leaf isn't a hybrid... I understand your point, but the Leaf isn't a
hybrid.

~~~
xpose2000
An excellent point. haha. whoops. :)

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a2tech
I live in Ann Arbor (pretty green area) and drive a hybrid Camry so my data
may be way off-but around here I see plenty of hybrids. Not as many large cars
as my Camry (which btw is a fantastic vehicle only made better by being a
hybrid) but loads of Priuses (Prii?) and Honda Civic hybrids. A physcian I
know even drives one of those monster Toyota Sequoia hybrids.

~~~
abduhl
Could you explain why being a hybrid makes the Camry better? Also, why did you
pick the hybrid instead of the standard version?

~~~
noonespecial
I made this choice just recently. It came down to the civic hybrid vs the
standard civic. The hybrid was about $10,000 more. A quick calculation showed
that I'd have to drive the hybrid 584,795 miles to break even on the extra
cost at today's fuel cost.

Put another way, I only plan to keep the car to around 100,000 miles. If the
hybrid cost more than $1717 above the standard, I'm losing out.

Put me in the hybrids are hype column.

~~~
jseliger
"Put me in the hybrids are hype column."

In some ways, hybrids are large-scale social/economic insurance. If gas prices
_really_ spike, consumers will have a (relatively) rapid substitution for
conventional cars.

Plus, a lot of people claim to care about the environment. At least cars offer
a modestly tangible way normal people in normal circumstances can show whether
they actually do enough to spend modestly more to do some minor good for said
environment.

Plus (part two) a lot of jingoistic America-first types can decide whether
they really want to help stick it to those people who jingoistic types don't
like but who are selling lots of oil or whether those jingoistic types are all
hat and no cattle. I find the number of people who favor or favored U.S.
intervention in Iraq but who drive pickup trucks to be somewhat puzzling.

~~~
babycakes
I purchased my Civic hybrid as insurance. At the time, gas was $4.65/gal, so I
decided to take the chance. Turns out that it was the peak in 2008. You win
some, you lose some. The Civic is still a nice low maintenance car with a 10
year, 100k mile battery warranty.

When we needed a second car last year, I went for a VW Jetta TDI, and it has
been a very good decision. The car averages 34 MPG with my mixed highway and
arterial road commute.

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veyron
Has anyone done a real break-even analysis on these cars (based on real life
performance numbers), including maintenance costs and assuming various fuel
prices? Even with subsidies, my hybrid-driving friends end up shelling out
more money than I do.

Every statistic I've seen is concocted (including the chevy volt's "infinite"
mpg claims way back when).

~~~
donw
Given that your username is 'veyron', I assume that your hybrid-driving
friends have shockingly aggressive driving habits.

~~~
veyron
Haha they are stop and go drivers in NYC. I'd presume they would have an edge
especially given the poor fuel economy of most cars when sitting in traffic

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capkutay
I'm not buying a car until it's fuel efficient AND drives itself. Looking at
you, Google.

~~~
ph0rque
My compromise: I'll by a used fuel-efficient car plus a driverless-conversion
kit when they become commercially available, should be cheaper that way.

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pasbesoin
I've continued to speculate about the signaling aspect. That is, a hybrid
(specifically, a Prius) being a way to purchase a small car without looking
"unsuccessful". Unfortunately, I live and work in an area where such reactions
can negatively influence your ability to "get things done".

More recently, the new Mini's have started appearing, possibly as another
small car that avoids undesired "signaling". They are not that cheap, and they
are "fun"; small is ok, if it's "fun".

Some years back, the BMW 3 series straddled this signaling line, to some
extent. It was a small, less expensive Beamer (not quite there, yet?), but it
was a Beamer and also made a certain sense for the sole commuter.

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wavephorm
I really thought there would be more all electric cars on the roads by now.
The pace of car tech is excrutiating. 5 years ago there was all hype that
hybrids were just temporary transition models. And here they're still trying
to sell these over-engineered luxury green cars.

Where are the affordable, small, city-oriented all electric commuting cars
that would actually make a difference?

~~~
jerf
"Where are the affordable, small, city-oriented all electric commuting cars
that would actually make a difference?"

Two things: Batteries, and regulations. Battery technology remains obstinate,
and regulations put a lower bound on how light you can make the car before it
starts failing a variety of tests in exciting ways, especially collision
tests.

I've seen a "car" that gets 100mpg, even at reasonable speeds (~55 mph), on
straight-up gasoline. But you would not want to ride that thing into a wall at
55 mph. There was wood where you'd expect metal, for instance...

