
Officials: Dozens at WA nursing facility show possible coronavirus symptoms - anigbrowl
https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/report-dozens-kirkland-nursing-facility-reporting-symptoms-that-might-suggest-coronavirus/2YXV65ZP6VBSZDVX53SUWXLYYU/
======
aazaa
From another story on the nursing home outbreak:

> "If we had the ability to test earlier, I'm sure we would have identified
> patients earlier," he [a Washington State health official] said.

[https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/485302-officials-
annou...](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/485302-officials-announce-
possible-coronavirus-outbreak-in-washington-nursing)

This is a pattern playing out with striking regularity:

1\. Local authorities can't test for themselves.

2\. CDC adjudicates testing requests, rejects many (most) of them.

3\. People likely infected with COVID-19 are sent back home, to infect others.

Consider this case, posted to HN today:

[https://abc7ny.com/5974999/](https://abc7ny.com/5974999/)

This pattern of apparently deliberate suppression of information can only fan
the flames of what looks like a rapidly escalating problem.

~~~
adrianmonk
> _apparently deliberate suppression of information_

There's an alternative explanation: that the CDC massively dropped the ball on
making enough test kits available.

The CDC comes off looking pretty bad regardless of whether it's deceit or
incompetence, but they're pretty different things.

Hanlon's Razor
([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor))
would tell us which to prefer, although it's not always right.

~~~
wolco
I'm sure this is the reason. Not being honest about it is a problem.

~~~
baq
Why didn’t they buy working kits from other countries though? They had weeks
to do that.

~~~
makomk
Probably because there's absolutely no reason to do so? It's not like the US
has a shortage of labs that can produce these kits. Supposedly, the problem
was that the CDC lab tasked with mass producing the testing kits wasn't
competent to do so _and didn 't realise it_ \- if the government had known
what the problem was, they could've contracted production out to another US
lab sooner. With the benefit of hindsight we of course know that getting kits
from somewhere else would've been better, but imagine how much harder this
problem would be to diagnose if the kits were sourced from some foreign lab
the FDA didn't have access to.

------
DebtDeflation
Look at the timeline of the outbreak in China:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%932...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak)

\- Patient 0 falls ill on December 1, 2019.

\- Patient 1 falls ill on December 8.

\- 8 total cases by December 18.

\- 45 cases by January 16, 2020.

\- 121 cases by January 18.

\- 1,287 cases by January 24.

\- 11,791 cases by January 31.

\- 24,324 cases by February 4.

\- 44,653 cases by February 11.

\- 70,548 cases by February 16.

\- 79,251 cases by today.

Right now, South Korea and Italy are basically where China was in late January
and the US and most of the rest of the world reporting their first infections
are where China was in mid January. The next few weeks are not going to be
pleasant.

It's important to note that the Hubei lockdown started on January 23, and
China is only recently seeing new cases plateau as a result. It's hard to
imagine what the stats would be had they not taken such aggressive action to
contain the spread, but we may find out given that the US, Europe, and most of
the rest of the world seems to be taking a wait and see approach as opposed to
prompt action.

~~~
zachguo
This is accumulated stats, please include the number of active cases too.

And the most of the accumulated cases are from Hubei. I agree the quarantine
seems to be effective.

------
yingw787
I’m starting to take some precautionary measures even here in Virginia.
Stocking up on food and other emergency supplies, avoiding public transit and
walking everywhere, wiping down all surfaces I come in contact with with
Clorox wipes I keep in my backpack. Hopefully I’m just going insane and
there’s no reason to panic, but a respiratory illness with no treatment
protocol besides quarantine, an r nought of probably no less than 2 given lack
of testing, and untraceable infection paths for new cases domestically sounds
concerning to me. This isn’t Ebola or Zika. This doesn’t even look like SARS.
It looks more like the first wave of Spanish flu. Second wave of Spanish flu
made it land in the history books.

I really, really hope I’m just going insane and nothing will happen.

~~~
themagician
Definitely sounds insane to me. Stop reading the news mate.

>80% of cases are mild symptoms. A mild cold. Under 50 has a fatality rate of
less than 0.5%. Almost all fatalities are over 70 or people who are already
severely ill. You are about 25x more likely to die of the seasonal flu at this
point.

This is media hysteria in a post fact world where all information from all
sources is equally valid. Everyone is trying to be heard to make their case.

If you are 70+ or severely ill this IS pretty bad because, unlike the flu,
their is literally no defense. If you don’t fit that profile it’s just a bunch
of FUD.

~~~
meesterdude
> If you are 70+ or severely ill this IS pretty bad because, unlike the flu,
> their is literally no defense. If you don’t fit that profile it’s just a
> bunch of FUD.

The 34 year old Chinese doctor who spoke up about the virus died.

[https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-
china-51403795](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51403795)

~~~
yingw787
I’ve heard symptoms relate less with age and more with viral load. The sicker
other people are and the more frequently you come in contact with them, the
more lethal it becomes.

I’m checking reddit r/COVID19, which is a science based discussion forum with
cited academic papers and flaired scientists. It started turning into a
prepper forum but I think the mods are shutting that down pretty quickly. I go
there for my news.

~~~
chachachoney
>> I’ve heard symptoms relate less with age and more with viral load. The
sicker other people are and the more frequently you come in contact with them,
the more lethal it becomes.

Are you sure that's accurate? I'm not disputing that as viral load increases,
so do symptoms, and ability to infect others.

However, I'm finding it hard to model a scenario in which a virus is already
replicating in one's system and external exposure to comparitively
infinitesimal amounts of the same virus has an impact. Do you have any actual
evidence to present which backs up your claims?

~~~
mlyle
> However, I'm finding it hard to model a scenario in which a virus is already
> replicating in one's system and external exposure to comparitively
> infinitesimal amounts of the same virus has an impact. Do you have any
> actual evidence to present which backs up your claims?

Who really knows, but there are genetic diversity effects in other diseases.
We also know that being exposed to a tiny initial viral load has a better
prognosis with many diseases than a massive one (including with past SARS).

Doctors could be facing a "quadruple whammy"\-- a disproportionate share of
the worst strains (because they're meeting the most ill patients; exposure to
greater viral loads; exposure to many patients with many slight variants of
the disease; and sleep deprivation and overwork causing minor immune
suppression.

But in the end, this is all speculation.

------
all_blue_chucks
This hospital as about midway between Microsoft and Amazon headquarters.

The governor just declared a state of emergency and authorized use of the
national guard:

[https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/department-health-
confirms-...](https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/department-health-confirms-
first-coronavirus-death-washington-state/XIDPHMLVOJAAREQ5YCL75367PU/)

~~~
daxfohl
Google has a sizable Kirkland office. A good chunk of Google Cloud is there.

Also, rather ironically, Costco is headquartered there.

EDIT: Costco was founded there, but current hq is a few miles away in
Issaquah.

~~~
nojvek
People are panic shopping. I think even though the president is downplaying
it, seeing how fast it spread in China and Italy, people are preparing for it
to be really bad here.

------
belltaco
>Health officials said that additional positive cases are not expected.

What does this mean? That everyone who could have got exposed are already
sick? Or that two weeks have passed with no more new flu-like illnesses?

~~~
mbrubeck
That’s a misquotation. The original source says “additional positive cases
_are_ expected”:

[https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/health/news/2020/February/2...](https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/health/news/2020/February/29-covid19.aspx)

~~~
abofh
That's a pretty fucked up misquotation

~~~
mbrubeck
KIRO has fixed the typo in the article.

------
louwrentius
I'm starting to get the impression that most countries are dealing with this
outbreak professionally. Except for Iran and the US. Ironic.

~~~
s_y_n_t_a_x
Doesn't seem that way looking at the numbers regarding the US.

The US has and is handling it the best.

The administration shut down travel earlier than any other country.

There are much fewer cases than other countries even though we have a larger
population, economic trade, and travel.

There was already a travel ban from Iran to the US. This morning they just
banned travel if you've ever been in Iran, so they don't come through Canada.

Maybe Canada should shut down flights from Iran.

~~~
norswap
Numbers don't mean much. You don't have confirmed cases if you don't test. The
same is true pretty much everywhere however, not only the US. You'd have
thought we would systematically test people from at-risk region, but
apparently not.

~~~
s_y_n_t_a_x
> Numbers don't mean much.

Really?

> You don't have confirmed cases if you don't test.

There's appropriate testing. You and some media outlets are just fear
mongering.

There's less testing overall because there's less risk because the US
government quarantined it so well.

Other countries did and have not. Yes there have been some blunders, but
that's human.

I don't think blanket statements politicizing the situation helps.

~~~
PeterisP
> there's less risk because the US government quarantined it so well.

Can you elaborate on that? Up to now everything shows that US government did
_not_ quarantine it very well, the chances for early testing and isolation of
early cases were missed because of too restricted testing, and now we're
getting severe patients who did not have any travel history, so they've been
infected somewhere on US soil a week or two ago from sources who haven't been
identified (possibly because they themselves have only mild symptoms and don't
need hospitalization) and presumably have infected others. These "surprise
patients" are evidence that community spread in USA has started some time ago
already.

From what I see, countries like Singapore and South Korea are some examples of
implementing somewhat effective quarantine measures, and USA has quarantined
it _much worse_ than other countries, it's just that it's been hidden due to
lack of testing and the time delay of severe symptoms, so we're just starting
to see the consequences of that.

~~~
s_y_n_t_a_x
The total number of cases in each country indicates otherwise.

Currently compared to every other country on Earth, we have quarantined it the
best.

Even if you assume there are some undetected cases in the US (which is
likely), it's still not even close.

It WILL spread across America, it's just a matter of time.

You are speculating that the CDC will not be able to handle it.

Take a step back and calm down. Maybe evaluate where you get your news and why
they are trying to fear monger.

~~~
craftinator
> The total number of cases in each country indicates otherwise.

The number of cases in the US is wrong. We know it's wrong because if it was
right, we wouldn't have cases stemming from unknown sources.

> Currently compared to every other country on Earth, we have quarantined it
> the best.

No. We've put our collective heads in the sand, and hidden from testing any
significant number of people.

> It WILL spread across America, it's just a matter of time.

This is the outcome of a bad quarantine.

> You are speculating that the CDC will not be able to handle it.

The CDC has already mishandled it. They created red tape making the criteria
for administering testing very narrow. They coerced medical establishments to
only use their test kits, rather than being able to pick from known working
kits proven elsewhere in the world. Then, the kits they issued were flawed,
and they forbade medical professionals from administering them. They have
literally done nothing right yet. Have you seen their official webpage on
Covid-19? It doesn't even describe the common chain of symptoms; instead it
has multiple bullet points about Covid-19 Stigma... You get better and more
complete information from reddit.

~~~
s_y_n_t_a_x
> The number of cases in the US is wrong. We know it's wrong because if it was
> right, we wouldn't have cases stemming from unknown sources.

We know they are from other countries that weren't able to get their
quarantine under control. Iran and South Korea. Flights from SK were banned
this Saturday morning. Flights from Iran were already banned, but now those
coming from Canada and other countries that have been in Iran can no longer
enter either.

> This is the outcome of a bad quarantine.

So you agree that case numbers matter and the US has dealt with it the best so
far, because it's spread across the world much more prevalent than here.

> You get better and more complete information from reddit.

Your reaction makes a lot of sense now.

~~~
craftinator
> > The number of cases in the US is wrong. We know it's wrong because if it
> was right, we wouldn't have cases stemming from unknown sources.

> We know they are from other countries that weren't able to get their
> quarantine under control. Iran and South Korea. Flights from SK were banned
> this Saturday morning. Flights from Iran were already banned, but now those
> coming from Canada and other countries that have been in Iran can no longer
> enter either.

No shit Sherlock. Unknown sources, as in none of the people that we suspected
of being exposed could've come into contact with people who later tested
positive.

> > This is the outcome of a bad quarantine.

> So you agree that case numbers matter and the US has dealt with it the best
> so far, because it's spread across the world much more prevalent than here.

I'm really not sure why you think "bad quarantine = we're #1!", but no, there
are many other countries that did a better job of the US, and now it's likely
a good number of us will die from it.

> > You get better and more complete information from reddit.

> Your reaction makes a lot of sense now.

Yes, I'm wholly willing to vet sources by the quality of the information they
provide, and the CDC is putting out platitudes and vague happy-go-lucky
information, while a number of informal channels are putting out the highest
quality information available.

Check out:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fakavo/compilation...](https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fakavo/compilation_of_information_for_health/)

Compare it to:
[https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html)

I know at this point you're just trolling, but this really isn't the right
place for it.

~~~
s_y_n_t_a_x
Your Reddit post links to the CDC. All of that information you can basically
find on the CDC website.

You're very misinformed and you seem to have angst against the administration
for little reason.

Get off the internet and stop trying to scare people. Go stock up on germ-x
and spend time with your family. Stop politicizing a very serious situation,
it's dangerous and tacky.

Good night.

~~~
craftinator
> Your Reddit post links to the CDC. All of that information you can basically
> find on the CDC website.

Before you edited your comment, you said that half of the links linked to the
CDC. The other half linked elsewhere, where useful information was to be had.

> You're very misinformed and you seem to have angst against the
> administration for little reason.

Gee thanks, nice to see you aren't above personal attacks. Having been a
Marine for nearly a decade, I have quite a lot of experience with the US
government.

> Get off the internet and stop trying to scare people. Go stock up on germ-x
> and spend time with your family. Stop politicizing a very serious situation,
> it's dangerous and tacky.

> Good night.

Truly a poet.

------
tannerbrockwell
Based on the limited supply of test kits, and ability to use them in an rapid
manner, I believe we are entering a phase where symptoms should warrant an
immediate self-quarantine.

Waiting for a negative, or declaring that only those that may have traveled or
contacted someone who was in china is test worthy is foolhardy. This thing
dies after 9+ days in the environment, if we reduce exposure of those who may
be infected; It is possible we can wait this out.

Companies without work from home policies should revisit them immediately.
Forcing someone who is under the weather or feeling off to come into your
office is risking your whole company site.

Also tell your co-workers to go home when they are sick! An office is not an
ambulatory pneumonia wing of the local hospital. Sick people should be home!

------
mcntsh
HN is really buying into the media hysteria on this one. I would have expected
more.

~~~
bsaul
don't know why you got downvoted. I have yet to see the opinion of a doctor
explaining why this virus requires specific measures compared to other types
of flu-like viruses ( hint: friend working in a hospital recently told me
doctors there are amazed by the frenzy on this topic, that looks to them
exactly the same as other kinds of flu).

It seems politics are forced to take the same kind of exceptional measures as
in other countries for fear of being accused of not being responsible.

I won't mention the other topic, but it's the second time i've found HN
lacking scientific rigor the same way the general public does. I guess it's
the downside of being more popular..

~~~
navels
The King County press conference today included a Q&A where this very question
was asked ("why this virus requires specific measures compared to other types
of flu-like viruses"). According to Dr. Francis Riedo, Medical Director of
Infection Control and Prevention at EvergreenHealth, to paraphrase, "The
difference between this Novel Coronavirus and Influenza is (1) there is no
innate immunity, it is a completely vulnerable population, (2) there is no
vaccine to prevent it, and (3) there is no currently effective anti-viral
therapy. It is a perfect storm for a novel virus to come out without a
vaccine, population base protection, or an effective therapeutic agent."

~~~
bsaul
I'm not even sure what this "no innate immunity" sentence means. Old and
fragile people are getting vaccined for flu every year, because they aren't
immuned to the new strain of the year.

Now it is true that old and fragile people should be worried about
coronavirus, but judging from death rates, it doesn't seem more deadly than
the flu. So why put fear in the whole population ?

also, most people only experience nothing more than a cold symptoms. Which
means most people actually have an immune system able to fight this virus
quite efficiently.

~~~
navels
Where are you getting your information? According to the Chinese CDC it is 20
times more deadly than the flu. And why does "most people only experience
nothing more than a cold symptoms" imply that they "have an immune system able
to fight this virus quite efficiently"? Younger and non-vulnerable people have
gotten extremely sick (and died), one theory being that the more of the actual
virus you are exposed to the more severe your symptoms.

~~~
bsaul
influenza has 650k death over 3-5 million cases per year, according to
wikipedia, which is around 16% casuality.

according to
[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
coronavirus has 3k deaths over 86k, which is 3%. Or if you take the other
metrics, which is 40k recovered, that's 3/43 around 7% death. still way lower
than the flu.

as for my remark about immune system, my point is that the vast majority of
people experience very mild symptoms. Which means that their body was
perfectly able to fight back and produce the antibody, just like against the
other flus.

~~~
navels
Try again. That’s 3–5 million _severe_ cases per year, not total cases.

~~~
bsaul
i suppose the people that got diagnosed for the coronavirus at the moment are
people that felt bad enough to go to the doctor or hospital. We probably don't
know about most of the cases..

~~~
navels
Science: [https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-
chi...](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-
mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf)

------
waynecochran
How do you differentiate influenza from covid-19? These folks probably just
have the flu. I live in WA state and I had the worst case of the flu I can
remember about 3 weeks ago. Did I have covid-19? No way to really know.

~~~
kabdib
Bellevue, WA here; I had a very bad case of the flu in early Feb (worst I can
remember) and it took 3+ weeks to fully recover. Many cow-orkers were also
affected (some meetings with 30+ people were down to a handful of people . . .
not a bad thing under the circumstances).

Our "patient zero" was a dev who came into work for a day with a cough.

If you're sick, please stay home.

~~~
sjg007
There’s no way you can confirm it was the dev. Almost Everyone has had the flu
this year basically regardless of flu shot status. I had a flu shot and got
influenza A. It took a week to recover but the fever only lasted half a day.
Tamiflu helped. My case corrresponded with a peak in cases in my state.

~~~
lbeltrame
Most of my past flu "experiences" have been like that. Started of as a cold,
two days of low fever, 8 hours of high fever (that waas the sucky part), and
two to three days for everything to stabilize.

