
Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3 - danhak
https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q3-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries
======
caconym_
I've practically stopped hearing about Tesla in the news, which must mean
they're doing great. Great job, Tesla folks!

~~~
threeseed
Actually they aren't doing so great. Everything has changed.

Before last year it was basically just Tesla and a few token cars e.g. Leaf in
the electric vehicle space. Now every car company is jumping in and any
detractors e.g. BMW CEO are being swiftly moved on.

And so Tesla is now competing against the most highly capitalised, profitable
and experienced companies in the world. Porsche Taycan is based on every
review the best EV car money can buy. VW has the ID.3/ID.4 coming out shortly
which look seriously good and they have plans for 70 models to be released in
the coming decade. You have startups like Rivian which are attracting
significant outside funding and disrupting segments. And at the cheaper price
points you have dozens of Chinese manufacturers entering the fray.

Tesla is about to have the fight of their life and all while they are losing
hundreds of millions each quarter.

~~~
et2o
People have been making that exact argument for years. There have been so many
"Tesla killers" that I've lost count. None have panned out.

The Taycan is roughly twice as expensive as the equivalent Model S Tesla and
has greatly inferior range and, among people likely to buy electric cars,
presumably less brand value. People haven't forgotten VW's emissions scandal.
Let's not forget they haven't even shipped a single Taycan yet. BMW has sold a
crappy, overpriced electric car/washing-machine-lookalike for years (i3)
without it catching on.

Furthermore, there's no real competition on the horizon just yet for the Model
3. Tesla have a 3-6 year head start on making electric cars which will be
difficult to overcome.

~~~
threeseed
And you seemed to have completely missed my point.

Car companies have been doing nothing for years. But now for the first time
they are all 100% committed to EV. And as we've seen with the Taycan, EQC and
the ID.3/4 they can easily compete with Tesla.

~~~
caconym_
> as we've seen with the Taycan and the ID.3/4 they can easily compete with
> Tesla.

The Taycan is not really competing with anything but Tesla's highest-end and
presumably lowest-volume products, and the ID.3 and 4 don't exist as
production cars yet (AFAIK).

Competing with them is obviously possible but these aren't very good examples.

~~~
jm4
The Taycan is DOA. If I want an electric car then I’m getting a Tesla because
it’s the easiest to own, easiest to charge, the most proven and outperforms
every other EV. If I want a Porsche then I’m getting a 911 turbo because it’s
their most iconic car. I’m not about to spend 150k on their first attempt at
an EV, the riskiest model in their catalog and the one that will most likely
sell the lowest volume. I don’t understand where the market is for the Taycan.
Forget about it being a “Tesla killer”. It’s good that they’re going electric.
I hope they stick with it and do well. But Tesla has already established
themselves as a premium brand. It’s not like Porsche is coming in and filling
a void here. They are going up against the leader in the leader’s strongest
segment, and one which is low volume and not much pie to share.

~~~
clouddrover
> _The Taycan is DOA._

No, they'll be selling about 20,000 a year which is what they always planned
for. They're actually increasing production capacity at the moment:

[https://electrek.co/2019/10/02/porsche-taycan-increase-
produ...](https://electrek.co/2019/10/02/porsche-taycan-increase-production-
high-demand/)

> _I’m not about to spend 150k_

There are two cheaper variants on the way. Buy one of them if you want:

[https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/cheaper-porsche-taycan-
ev...](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/cheaper-porsche-taycan-ev/)

------
slg
That first line after the chart is the big takeaway in my opinion. The backlog
of orders increased this quarter which is both good news, since it shows
demand is not a problem, and bad news, since Tesla still can't produce cars
fast enough.

~~~
threeseed
Demand mix is a huge problem though.

Model 3 is cannibalising sales of the S and X models. Which means their ARPU
and gross margin has rapidly decreased causing impacts to their revenue and
profit.

Tesla's fiscal position is simply unsustainable.

~~~
clomond
I'm sorry for being pedantic here - but your final sentence does not
necessarily follow from the previous.

Lowering ARPUs and tightening gross margin % are an issue - yes. But the
single most important factor here is gross margin in absolute terms. If sales
volume increases to offset decreasing ARPUs, this doesn't make 'Tesla's fiscal
position simply unsustainable'.

~~~
threeseed
Sales volumes are not offsetting decreasing ARPUs though.

That's the problem. And you only have to look at Tesla's profit numbers to see
this.

------
samfisher83
In the last 4 quarters Tesla has delivered 271,521 model 3s. That would make
it about the 12th best selling car in america. That is about as many escapes
ford has sold. That is pretty phenomenal.

~~~
Lorenzo45
Edit: Didn't realize they were including Q4 2018

That's Tesla's total sales worldwide. About 50k of those sales are Model S/X.
Their total sales for Model 3 in the US are at 114,500 for the year. Source:
[https://insideevs.com/news/373812/ev-sales-scorecard-
septemb...](https://insideevs.com/news/373812/ev-sales-scorecard-
september-2019/)

Still great numbers but just wanted to be accurate.

~~~
samfisher83
I am using the last 4q.

You can use the data from here:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3#Deliveries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3#Deliveries)

and here:

[https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-
details/tesl...](https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-
details/tesla-q3-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries)

~~~
Lorenzo45
Ah my mistake, I didn't realize you were including Q4 2018 :) Still think it's
a bit of an unfair comparison to compare Tesla's worldwide sales to other car
makers' US sales.

Edit: Just realized the Model 3 actually is the 12th best selling vehicle in
the US for September! 20th best selling vehicle in the US in Q3 :) Source:
[http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/us-vehicle-sales-figures-by-
mod...](http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/us-vehicle-sales-figures-by-model/)

------
rossdavidh
Wikipedia has a chart of past deliveries, for comparison:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3#Deliveries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3#Deliveries)
Looks like Model 3 is up about 10% from the previous quarter, which is not
like 2018Q2-to-Q3 which nearly doubled, but is still a significant bump up.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Gigafactory 3 in China comes online this month. Manufacturing lines are
already validated. I’d expect an increased step up in quarterly deliveries
going forward. Also, no more Fremont->China ocean shipping delay.

This puts Tesla on track to build and deliver 500k+ vehicles a year next year.
This does not include energy storage sales out of GF1 in Nevada.

~~~
new_realist
Tesla has never been able to bring a production line online without a year or
so of significant problems.

~~~
omgwtfbyobbq
Tesla's never copied an existing production line either though. The Model S,
X, and 3 lines were all novel for Tesla. The Shanghai line should be a copy of
the 3 line from Fremont for the most part.

------
graiz
They had a leaked email posted last week that they were pushing for 100K. So
97k is less than was priced into the stock. Not sure why institutional
investors don't like the stock and it's so heavily shorted and twitchy.

Tesla could use a COO to manage operational expectations and let Elon focus
more on engineering in the future. It'll keep his twitter/email free from
setting market expectations.

~~~
xkjkls
Institutional investors don’t like the stock because it’s a 16 year old
company that’s never made a profit a year in existence. It’s pretty easy to
see how that could make any money manager run scared

~~~
gniv
Amazon was kind of similar

Edit: Wow, so much hate for a one-line comment. I have five replies and three
downvotes as of now.

I stand by my comment. I think Tesla is building long-term value (brand
recognition, a reputation for innovation in an stodgy industry, technical
know-how in multiple industries) that will allow them to be profitable. I know
well how Amazon got here, but I don't care about the technicalities. It is the
behemoth that it is because of the compounded value added over 14+ years. I
see Tesla equally driven and able to take advantage of the things it puts in
place now.

~~~
xkjkls
Amazon has been cash flow positive since 2003. Amazon has a unique negative
cash flow cycle where they collected revenue significantly prior to paying
their accounts payable. As long as they are constantly growing, it is
basically like running a business on a credit card.

Tesla is in a completely different situation. Cars require massive upfront
investment before their revenue is realized, and given the results just
posted, Tesla will most likely post a quarter with declining revenue.

People should stop comparing things to Amazon. Amazon was successful because
it was unique.

~~~
__coaxialcabal
Semantics, but “negative cash conversion cycle”, not “negative cash flow
cycle”.

~~~
xkjkls
You are correct; I type without proofreading

------
chrisrogers
Forecasters had expected 99,000, so below targets. Tesla has said they are
targeting 400,000 for the year, so Q4 will need to be quite something.

~~~
danhak
Which forecasters? Morgan Stanley put out a note just this morning predicting
91,000 deliveries:

[https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/morgan-stanley-
predicts...](https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/morgan-stanley-
predicts-q3-deliveries-miss-tesla-capitulates-companys-autonomous)

One of the most prominent TSLA shorts was predicting 82,000:

[https://mobile.twitter.com/markbspiegel/status/1167484390366...](https://mobile.twitter.com/markbspiegel/status/1167484390366240768)

Full-year guidance is 360,000 - 400,000. They should have no problem hitting
the lower end at this point.

~~~
et2o
Spiegel is remarkably and consistently wrong about everything related to TSLA,
yet always full of sound and fury about it. From the aspect of a relatively
neutral observer (me, although I like Tesla) he's a remarkable character
study. I often read his Twitter in a state of bemused horror.

He runs his "long-shirt macro hedge fund" out of his 1 bedroom upper east side
apartment but probably manages (significantly) less than 10MM USD, although he
stopped releasing figures. I'm fascinated by how someone ends up like him. The
absolute insistence in his own ability despite all reasonable evidence to the
contrary is something to behold.

I have to acknowledge the possibility that his public personality is at least
to some extent a performance, perhaps designed to raise his profile among
potential investors. But he's so consistently and thoroughly repulsive (see
his pinned Twitter non-apology for a since-deleted "joke" involving Epstein,
Greta Thunberg, and child rape) among others that I don't think it's all
performative.

------
Keloo
Am I the only one who thinks the Wall Street is playing dirty? Right before
the report they increase the expectations so tesla miss, if they wouldn't
increase it that should be a beat, same with eps last quarter. It feels like
they force the news headlines to be 'tsla miss'. Or maybe I'm a bit fanatic,
please correct me if I'm wrong.

~~~
jcfrei
What's the incentive for Wall Street "to play dirty"? Analysts at investment
banks need to retain good relationships with the CEOs of the companies (they
are not allowed to disclose any market relevant non public information but it
still helps tremendously with their work) as well as the investors (by making
good forecasts and retaining them as clients).

------
rpmisms
Cue $TSLAQ talking about the Tesla bubble.

Really cool to watch Tesla absolutely kick ass.

~~~
daxorid
TSLAQ is actually quite happy with this number, with the stock down 5% AH.

The multiple on this stock has it pegged to be an extreme growth company, but
5% annualized delivery growth with shrinking ASPs is decidedly not a "growth"
number.

TSLAQ is wrong that it's a fraud and/or insolvent. But they're absolutely
right that its valuation is absurd and needs to eventually come down to meet
reality.

~~~
cma
I think the promises around FSD are fraud, especially since they took a lot of
money for it on basically just an over-optimistic hunch of being able to
deliver it.

~~~
elisharobinson
Did you pay for it.

~~~
cma
what’s the implication supposed to be?

~~~
elisharobinson
R u a dissatisfied customer

~~~
cma
I'm not claiming fraud against me.

------
alistproducer2
Good old zerohedge never misses an opportunity to shit on Tesla [0]. Question
for Tesla owners: how is the reliability? I'd love to get unto an electric if
only to never have to change my oil again but im curious as to what kind of
maintenance requirements these cars have.

[0] : [https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/tesla-stock-tumbles-
aft...](https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/tesla-stock-tumbles-after-
disappointing-q3-deliveries)

~~~
FullyFunctional
Amazing, truly, but ... don't get the early version of a new model. I got one
of the very early (RWD, 2012) Model S. It was awesome, but it had a far amount
of birthing problems and thankfully I live close enough to the service center.
However, I really wanted AWD so I swapped it out in 2014 and I haven't had
almost no problems with it since.

Compared to the (notoriously reliable) Subaru Impreza WRX I drove for 10 years
prior to that, there are no regular oil changes, etc.

I do spend more on tires now :(

------
mlpinit
Tesla fan here but I have to point out that this headline seems very
favorable. Other headlines indicate that despite the new record, the expected
deliveries count was 99k.

[https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stock-falls-after-
co...](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stock-falls-after-company-
misses-third-quarter-delivery-expectations-2019-10-02)

~~~
rcMgD2BwE72F
That market "expectation" was increased to 99K just this week, after the email
from Musk was leaked with a mention of 100K deliveries.

Don't trust these market "targets": these are mostly published and (silently)
changed to pleased some analyst's clients and make the SP price to move in a
preferred direction.

------
rhacker
One day I saw 3 Tesla car carriers parked at the truck stop right next to each
other (so about 26 or so Teslas - all model 3s). That was a bit unusual, there
is typically one Tesla car carrier per day. This was off the 5 in CA (and at a
Casino - lol)

------
HenryKissinger
Yet $TSLA has lost ~5% in after hours trading. Wat.png

Edit: Wasn't aware of the 100k expectation.

~~~
dv_dt
The broad market was down almost 2% today, and Tesla is a higher alpha stock.

~~~
kpommerenke
Do you mean that Tesla is a higher beta stock? According to Yahoo Finance, its
beta is actually only 0.33. Source: [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/key-
statistics?p=TSLA](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/key-statistics?p=TSLA)

~~~
dv_dt
Yes beta, and surprising on the actual beta. It seems my assumption was wrong.

------
lammasass
German Carmakers Hate This Trick: Electric Vehicles That Work. Hopefully the
eu wakes up and removes barriers for us good, so more europeans can buy
teslas.

------
lxe
The investors still don't like this.

------
paulcole
Can’t wait to find out what easily justifiable voodoo they used to fudge the
numbers this time.

