
Where Working-Age Americans Are Moving - kansas_one
http://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2013/12/19/where-working-age-americans-are-moving/
======
drone
Glad to see two great Texas cities in the top ten for the 35+ cohort. Both SA
and Houston have been great cities for me, and the other tech workers I know.
SA is a beautiful city with lots of great jobs in the security and networking
industries, and the economy in Houston continues to rage on, with low cost of
living. (It's also worth noting, that most people would find the big
population centers in TX a lot more liberal and diverse than they think they
are.)

~~~
nilkn
Houston's a great buy compared to Silicon Valley, but I wouldn't say its cost
of living is low on a national scale at all. It's still drastically more
expensive than most American cities (it's the 4th largest, after all). Most
inner-loop neighborhoods are filled with million dollar homes, most of which
are not mansions.

Don't get me wrong, I love Houston. But it's not just a sea of cheap
McMansions. There are a lot of very highly paid oil executives, corporate
attorneys, and physicians (Texas Medical Center) who can easily afford a $1M+
home so the urban core of the city is really transforming into a much more
expensive and exclusive area.

~~~
drone
Yeah, I guess I'm not counting the "buying" of a house as much towards CoL,
renting is still fairly inexpensive, assuming you don't want a "luxury
apartment," but gas prices (still paying less than $3/gal in my neighborhood),
food prices, utilities (let's not talk about the water bill!) & etc. "as
compared to other major cities."

That last part is important =) You'll live a lot cheaper in Luling than
Houston, but outside of great barbecue, there isn't much going on there.

The inner loop is really expensive for housing stock, definitely, and even it
has nothing on the memorial villages! That being said, the whole east side is
still pretty cheap. The same house that would cost you $500k in the Heights
can be bought for $250k in Eastwood/Idylwood.

~~~
nilkn
Ah yes, I completely forgot about places like Hunter's Creek Village. Those
areas are insanely expensive too. =]

Apartments are definitely a bargain in Houston, though. Even the "luxury
apartments" are half the price of a normal apartment in San Francisco.

------
xfour
Well, isn't that kind-of sad. Basically what I read into this is that when you
need to provide for more than yourself, good luck being able to afford space
in a desirable location. Off to riverside or sacramento for you.

~~~
delinka
I think "desirable location" changes when you gain intimate relationships and
dependents.

~~~
mathattack
Exactly. Once you have kids, "Having a cool bar with craft brews nearby" and
"Fun concerts" pale in comparison to "Having a public school nearby that
actually educates kids."

I think this is much more important than rental prices.

~~~
jameshart
Actually, it would be kind of nice to have both... is there some law of nature
which prevents them co-occurring?

~~~
JunkDNA
A person's priorities in life just change. I in no way ascribe to the
"helicopter parent" approach to raising kids, but having kids changed me in
fundamental ways that cause my outlook on life to change in a manner that
often surprises me. Case in point: I used to be a movie buff. I loved watching
movies. Now, I have the ultimate setup for watching movies and it doesn't even
interest me. I have other things (not even necessarily always spending time
with my toddlers) that I would rather spend 2.5+ hours doing (getting sleep
being a prime contender).

~~~
jameshart
Oh, I kind of agree; but I also think that there's value in remaining yourself
too, and not giving up everything for your kids. Not least because I think it
can help your relationship with the person with whom you started the family in
the first place.

I just wish it was possible to live in a neighborhood which has good schools,
nice neighborhood kids who you can trust to babysit, combined with somewhere
within walking distance that's worth going to when you've got a sitter.

~~~
mathattack
You can remain yourself, but your priorities shift. Even with restaurants, you
look for those that are stroller friendly and have enough other kids that you
don't feel bad when lunch winds up on the floor.

The problem with schools is that it is a very large entrenched organization,
with lots of special interests (politicians, teachers, administration, etc)
who don't want to give up monopoly power. The central organizations suck in a
lot of money, and don't improve quality. There are ways to fight this (more
charters, close bad schools, etc) but it's very hard and requires a lot of
different folks in government willing to fight special interests.

~~~
jameshart
Your idea of a fun date night with your SO must be very different to mine.

~~~
mathattack
Welcome to life with kids.

------
hosh
The article is looking at the cohort data assuming that the leading edge of
the Millennial cohort (at least, according to this way of divvying up the
generations; I've heard of others) who are currently at the oldest in the
early 30s will act like the people who are in the mid-30s: looking to settle
down, raise families, find some place cheaper to live, etc.

Is that assumption actually true? What do you guys think?

~~~
humanrebar
Yes. Biology is a powerful thing.

If millenials go child-free in large numbers, they would be the first American
generation to do so. There may be precedents in places like modern Japan, but
the culture in Japan is so different that I am hesitant to extrapolate from
that data point.

------
mathattack
_Young people, it should be expected, tend to be less sensitive to ultra-high
rents_

Is this really true? I was hyper-sensitive to rent just out of school. Every
$100/month difference meant something I would have to write out of my life.
Perhaps it's more true that very young people don't mind cramming 6 people in
a house or apartment meant for 3.

This doesn't discount the conclusion, though of older people leaving cities
like NY, but I think that's more about poor educational options for kids,
rather than higher sensitivity to rent.

~~~
kd0amg
I suspect there are some confounding factors here. Most people I know would
rather rent for $1000/month and have a good job in the city than rent for
$300/month in a small town where nobody's hiring.

~~~
humanrebar
The article isn't contrasting living in the woods with living in the city.
It's contrasting living in Orlando with living in Silicon Valley.

They're both cities and they're both hiring.

~~~
scarmig
They're both hiring, but the... types of jobs they're hiring for vary widely.

There's maybe a half dozen places in the world I can do what I do. Orlando is
not one of them.

~~~
humanrebar
Fair enough, but the article is about broader trends, not tradeoffs when
choosing a particular specialty.

------
buckbova
Any Oregon dwellers out there? How's the tech community in and outside of
Portland? Has it been growing or shrinking?

~~~
davidw
I grew up there, and while I haven't lived there for some time:

* Eugene is a smallish city with a the University of Oregon. If it played its cards right, it could be something like Boulder. But it doesn't seem like a lot is going on there, and the weather... well, it's pretty grim, like all of western Oregon. In my opinion, 5C and rain is worse than some snow from time to time in terms of 'bad weather'.

* Bend is kind of on the small side to have much going on, but maybe has more than Eugene for its size?

* Southern Oregon - Ashland in particular, is a nice place to live as it's a bit drier than further north, but it's still on the smallish side, and I don't know that there's really much of an 'ecosystem' there. I could see living there if I had a bootstrapped thing going and wanted somewhere cheaper to live that's still nice in some ways.

* Portland is big enough to have a real community, and is a good city for the right kind of person. I can't stand the weather myself.

~~~
mikestew
I've given a serious look at moving from Seattle/Redmond to somewhere in
Oregon outside of Portland. I'd _love_ to live in Eugene. As a runner, that
place seems like Disneyland. But as you say, the town doesn't seem to have
made much effort to be even a very good college town, let alone have much else
going on. I could still live there, but tech jobs are a bit slim.

If anyplace in Oregon were to be Boulder, I'd say Bend has the best shot.
Granted, it's an outsider's point of view, but I _think_ it's closer to
mountains and at a bit of elevation. Seems like more athletic stuff going on,
bigger cycling community and the like. On the downside, it seems as if that
main road through town becomes more and more of one giant strip mall. Job-
wise, seems like there a few more opportunities than Eugene.

Portland? Plenty going on there, and between Seattle and Portland I'd choose
Portland. Seattle _wants_ to be quirky and hip, but doesn't pull it off as
well as Portland, IMO. Portland's smaller, too, but seems to have enough going
on to satisfy my tastes.

In the end, though, I could find a new job next week in the Seattle area. I
lose a job in Eugene or Bend, I'm screwed. That's okay, the Seattle area is
nice, too.

~~~
wylee
It seems to me that one of Boulder's big advantages/draws is that it's a
college town close to a big city (Denver). There's no arrangement quite like
that in Oregon. Bend is hours away from Eugene or Portland.

Having lived in Eugene for a while, I'd say it's pretty nice, but you might
get bored pretty quickly, even as a runner. It's just to small (for me).

I think Portland is better for outdoorsy stuff in general. There's Forest
Park, Mt Tabor, etc in the city and lots of camping, hiking, snowboarding
nearby.

~~~
davidw
I'm not entirely sure if it's size related or... just lack of energy/ambition.
Padova, where I live now, is a similar order of magnitude (214,000 vs 150,000
in Eugene), but there seems to be more going on here.

------
sologoub
This is an interesting article, taking on a complex subject. That said, I
really do not see myself moving to the cities that showed the most growth of
35+ cohort...

Close suburbs of the CA cities are definitely an option, even Seattle is not
out of the question (oddly, I love rainy weather...), but it seems like the
cohorts need some sort of geographic slicing. Where are people moving from to
increase the presence of a cohort? I have a hard time imagining that a lot of
tech people from SV will pack up and go to New Orleans or Florida. If this is
where you are from or have family at, it makes more sense, but I wouldn't
expect a large number of people that never lived in those areas/cities, to
suddenly want to move there just because they got older/settled down.

An interesting infographic would be to show migration patterns over time, from
where you are born, to where you go to college, work, etc. and then retire.
For me, I'm expecting a boomerang-looking flow to where I went to high school.

------
andrewfong
For a visual representation of state-by-state migration patterns generally,
this is a fun graph to poke around: [http://vizynary.com/2013/11/18/restless-
america-state-to-sta...](http://vizynary.com/2013/11/18/restless-america-
state-to-state-migration-in-2012/)

------
csense
Speaking as an HN'er in one of the "traditional Rust Belt hard-luck cases:"
Anyone reading this have any good ideas for ways that areas like mine can
improve local economic conditions and better retain or even attract younger
folks?

Area politicians are desperate to improve the economy; if you're looking for a
new site for a medium-to-large business, especially if you're in a high-tech
industry that's perceived as going up instead of going down, you'll likely
find the Rust Belt's state and local governments to be quite accomodating.

~~~
r00fus
It's a chicken/egg problem - the reason most businesses stay away is that
folks aren't already moving there - and "required infrastructure" i.e., coffee
shops, trader joes, etc isn't present.

Those buseinsss and shops don't open there because the demographics aren't
there.

The only thing that changes this is when a large organization decides to make
things happen and move a significant base of people to that locale. City
governments are generally not big enough to convince enough employers to move,
and large companies only do this if they get massive tax breaks which can be
unpopular with citizens and local businesses (i.e., it's a risky investment -
which investors don't like).

------
davidf18
Another interesting metric would be to further define the age categories by
income (which correlates to job type). I live in Manhattan and it is a very
fun place for singles with lots to do (and if you're Jewish a lot of Jewish
cultural and religious activities) and lots of fellow singles to meet for
dating and to make friends.

Rent is ridiculously high because of zoning restrictions against construction
or limiting building height (which increases housing costs).

------
benhebert
After visiting SF / SV earlier this year, I think that a remarkable amount of
productivity is gained solely based on the weather. You wake up, it's
beautiful outside and you're ready to work. To me it's a major advantage over
the Northeast (where I'm from).

I think Austin has to be my #1 city in America that I have left to visit.

~~~
michael_h
I'm always caught off-guard when I hear people describe San Francisco's
weather in positive terms. I can see how people might like it, but for me,
it's dreadful.

~~~
azernik
The only people who do this are people who came from places with even worse
weather (cf. references to the Northeast in your parent comment). People used
to e.g. LA or South Bay have a different perspective.

------
iamthepieman
Remote work is going to play a bigger part in where millenials live than it
did for previous generations. Remote workers are a tiny fraction of the
workforce but I think millenials are more comfortable with it both as
employees and employers.

~~~
humanrebar
Current economics and regulations are encouraging part-time and contract work.
If these trends start affecting office careers as much as they affect low-
skill jobs, I can see remote work becoming extremely popular.

------
mrfusion
I'm always on the lookout for somewhere in the US with a climate like San
Diego but a low cost of living.

That's where I want to move. Any ideas?

~~~
hkarthik
It's actually hard to beat San Diego in a few respects:

1) The weather is just perfect all year long.

2) The cost of living, while high, isn't insane compared to places like the
Bay Area or NYC.

3) The public schools are actually quite good in many of the areas without
being far flung from the city.

The big downside, however, is that there just aren't many local jobs for
techies. The few that exist pay very little compared to the ones in the Bay
Area or even a little further north in LA despite the cost of living being on
the high side.

My wife and I have talked about moving there for a while (we both work from
home) but the big challenge is that we'd have to find other income streams (in
addition to our day jobs) to fund a good lifestyle in San Diego. In the face
of a pretty tepid local job market and challenges with remote work pay being
lower, that seems to be a requirement to make it out there.

~~~
nicholas73
I'm no expert in the SD job market, but my feeling is that there are many tech
jobs but not the kind HN people are thinking of. There are large bio and
defense industries there, along with some hardware companies like Qualcomm.
It's definitely not a software haven though. I actually worked in SD in
defense at graduation - I wouldn't say the pay was worse than the Bay, unless
you were a rockstar Ruby ninja.

~~~
ertemplin
I interned at Qualcomm once, and they are a pretty great place to work if you
are a software engineer with experience in mobile, embedded systems, or even
.NET. Plus their mobile computing division is growing incredibly quickly. Over
the course of my 3 month internship, my team almost doubled in size.

There is also a great web/javascript community that is growing in the area
called sandiego.js ([http://sandiegojs.org/](http://sandiegojs.org/)). I
attended most of their talks this summer and there were always people looking
to hire people to do work for them.

------
_nullandnull_
Denver gets 300 days of sunshine and Forbes chooses a cloudy picture..

------
asc123
New York?

