
Bitcoin Price Chart - objectivistbrit
https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg730ztgCzm1g10zm2g25zv
======
pedrocr
It's amazing how well the historical bitcoin pricing curve[1] matches the
Gartner hype cycle conceptual curve[2]. One of the criticisms of the Gartner
curve is how unscientific it is but at least in this case the behavior matches
pretty well.

[1]
[http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25z...](http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zv)

[2] [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hype-Cycle-
General.png](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hype-Cycle-General.png)

~~~
dlevi
a) You should use log scale[1] b) The same "hype cycle" has been repeated in
2011 (bottom $0,001, top $32, crash to $2) 2013 (bottom $10ish, top $266,
crash to $55) and 2014 (bottom $70ish, peak $1200ish, crash to $350ish) -
always reaching higher highs and bottoming out to higher lows.

Therefore, zoom out and you will see that Bitcoins has "interim bubbles", but
the long time trend has nothing to do with Gartner's hype cycle.

[1]
[https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25...](https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl)

[2]
[https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvz...](https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl)

~~~
pedrocr
There will always be smaller price fluctuations than the long-term trend. I'm
not sure why you think a log scale is a better comparison either. Note I
wasn't just comparing the shape of the curves, the actual descriptions of the
hype cycle match the bitcoin story fairly well. Anyway it was just a
curiosity, eyeballing price charts and thinking you see meaning is a time-
tested method for being wrong...

~~~
itsnotlupus
Anecdotally, that exact graph has been posted on the bitcoin subreddits
frequently since 2011, each time fitting the price chart rather well.

On that basis, it's not crazy to imagine that today's long term trend will
become tomorrow's fluctuation once more.

------
MildlySerious
What I find most interesting about the rise in the last months, is that it
seems organic. No huge bubbles, no temporary rises in volume. Just growth. I'm
not saying it's not speculative by any means, but it does have a healthier and
more solid feel, which I personally welcome.

~~~
koonsolo
Might have something to do with the demonisation of the 500 and 1000 rupee
bills? I don't have any evidence, but this seems another blow to the
credibility of fiat money.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_500_and_1000_rupee_note...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_500_and_1000_rupee_note_demonetisation)

~~~
djaychela
I've seen a number of news pieces coming up in my Google feed saying that
adoption in India has increased hugely as a result, such as [1], and it would
make some sense given that many do have mobile phones. I'm not sure about a
blow to the credibility of fiat money, but it may be a reaction to what could
be viewed as a very difficult policy for a huge number of people to deal with,
but then that's the kind of thing that helps adoption of alternatives.

[1][http://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/%E2%80%98Bitcoin-a...](http://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/%E2%80%98Bitcoin-
adoption-in-India-sees-surge%E2%80%99/article16716798.ece)

------
dsugarman
I thought long-term steady increases in BTC value would be because of long-
term steady increases in volume, but volume looks like it's fallen off a
cliff. What is going on here?

~~~
joantune
Low, constant 'buy' volume. Are people using Bitcoin to store their funds more
and more?

~~~
wyldfire
Yes, everyone is "hodl"-ing because the people who came before them got 100x
or more gains. They're all praying that the steadily decreasing inflation
curve and steady demand naturally yields higher exchange rates.

------
lma21
Can someone please explain why the price has been increasing? I haven't
properly followed any news behind bitcoin lately...

~~~
hultner
Taking a wild guess I'd suppose increased political instability would be a
driving factor some of them being:

* Britain, Brexit

* Italy, uncertainty around euro and leadership

* France, Presidential candidates are more aligned with Russian/Putin-values then earlier

* USA, Trump being elected to president as an outlier

These things will of course also drive political uncertainty in the rest of
the world which will naturally put value of fiat currency in speculation, gold
certificates are already sold at a much greater rate then available gold so
bitcoin is a viable alternative.

Another explanation could be current lack of institutional investors in the
bitcoin market, once BtC ETF's (stock traded funds) correlated to bitcoin
value starts popping up there is a much higher likelyhood for institutions to
enter the market. At this moment I only know of one, XBT in Sweden but the
Winklevoss brothers are trying to open one up in the US.

My post may contain errors, if so please correct me.

~~~
drcross
As someone following Bitcoin I would mostly agree with this. While Bitcoin
cannot be considered a proper (or in any way safe) alternative to Fiat I think
it's growth highlights a dissatisfaction with central banking as more people
become educated about it.

------
hultner
As someone a bit out of the loop, how is the whole block size debacle
evolving?

~~~
davotoula
It's not.

There's a lot of arguing and a main proponent of the "big blocks" camp has
organised enough miners to current bitcoin scaling enhancements.

They demand bigger blocks before they allow further scaling enhancements.

~~~
hultner
So are true microtransactions currently infeasible due to transactions fees
exceeding even CC-rates?

I believe that were of mayor concern last time I checked up.

~~~
tylersmith
The position of Bitcoin Core is that fees should be high and microtransactions
should be infeasible, except on Blockstream's Lightning Network. The reason is
that decentralization has costs and they believe fees need to be high to pay
for it.

~~~
hultner
What is the Blockstream's Lightning Network and how does it correlate with
bitcoin?

How will bitcoin attract customers from traditional payment options if fees
are higher?

~~~
out_of_protocol
That's level 2 solution, implemented on top of Bitcoin (you need to create
bitcoin transactions to start interacting with LN and consequent "good"
transactions are almost free).

One thing - it is not actually implemented in full and therefore can not be
used in vivo.

------
klackerz
I believe India may be contributing to the price increase due to the whole
demonetisation thing going on here.

------
ionwake
Just a reminder, no one on hackernews took Bitcoin as anything more than just
an uninteresting scam, and this was as little as 3 years ago. It was a just a
big joke.

It was invented in 2008 and it was appearing in conferences around 2011.

But by summer 2013 , there still had not been one article on the front page
about bitcoin. I seem to remember comments on here mostly just deriding it if
it was ever mentioned. (Please correct me if I am wrong).

I just feel this is important to share, not even HN knows what a hot
technology is, even if it has been in the same room for years. It is
interesting and sometimes I wonder what other emergent tech is on the scene
which many know little about.

~~~
andrewpi
I'm not sure why you say that. There are plenty of bitcoin stories on HN going
back far longer than 3 years.

Example:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2524631](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2524631)

------
siavosh
Are there any good articles/resources that address the challenges of Bitcoin
becoming anything more than a security vs a currency given it's similarity to
being a restrictive Gold Standard like currency?

Recently I've seen some older talks by Yanis Varoufakis saying bitcoin can't
work as a currency, and I'm curious if there's a response from the Bitcoin
community?

[https://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2013/04/22/bitcoin-and-the-
danger...](https://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2013/04/22/bitcoin-and-the-dangerous-
fantasy-of-apolitical-money/)

~~~
xiphias
We have enough good enough currencies, but the world was missing a good store
of value. Gold is too hard to store/buy/sell reliably (and with small margin).
It will be a better currency after it's accepted as a store of value by much
more people.

------
objectivistbrit
Up-to-date price here:
[http://www.coindesk.com/price/](http://www.coindesk.com/price/)

