
CoronaVirus – FAQ, misconceptions, information, from a statistical perspective - 9nGQluzmnq3M
https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/exe552/coronavirus_faq_misconceptions_information_from_a/
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topmonk
Most important point, as far as I'm concerned:

 _Ok so - definitely, the death count is too low. We all agree there. But
before you freak out, there 's a bright spot. We CAN also put an upper bound
with a fair amount of certainty on the general death rate. How? Because there
have been enough cases reported globally already, and enough data from the
patients OUTSIDE of China, that we can tell the death rate is NOT anywhere
near 10% with a strong degree of certainty (many patients have recovered, and
are just awaiting the viral test all-clear before they can be discharged. Most
other patients are in stable and recovering condition)._

 _So we don 't know, from the China data, whether the fatality rate is 0.5% or
1% or 2% or 3%... but we can be FAIRLY sure it's not 5% and definitely not
above that. Simply because otherwise we'd already see the mortality in
International cases, and that's outside of Chinese control._

Of course, this assumes access to a hospital, so if they get overwhelmed, I
would expect the death rate to be higher, but unsure of how much.

