
BlackBerry Dead by 2012 - showngo
http://brooksreview.net/2011/05/blackdeath/
======
michaelpinto
I disagree with the author:

The BlackBerry market is made up of corporate users who write emails that go
on for miles. What makes the device unique is they physical keyboard, which
makes it easy to write those monster emails. And in my experience of hanging
out with Blackberry users that's really what they use the device for — the
ability to make a phone call seems secondary (and the ability to look at the
web isn't even there).

While the other brands appeal to the consumer market, corporations still love
their BlackBerry in the way they love Windows. If RIM was smart they'd get
acquired by Microsoft, Oracle, Dell or IBM — someone who is a top tier player
in the corporate space.

~~~
fertel
That argument doesn't hold much water anymore. I have friends who work at some
of the top investment banks - JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank are two of which I
know are offering the iPhone as a choice instead of the blackberry.

Also, a lawyer friend at a top tier law firm was offered the iPhone as an
alternative as well - granted he didn't take it. A decision he regrets.

It's only a matter of time - no one wants to carry 2 devices and their
employers are keen to it.

~~~
danzheng
Here is another data point, my finance, who's in sales and a Droid user for a
year, recently got a Blackberry for work. She didn't like it at all.
Blackberry is not going away anytime soon due long enterprise sales cycle. But
like fertel said, it's only a matter of time.

~~~
fractallyte
That's an interesting typo... Do you lavish a lot of money on her? ;-)

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melvinram
And Microsoft was suppose to be dead by 2010, or was that 200x or 201x?

Declining from King status? Probably

Dead? I put that right up there with world is ending in 2012.

PS: I am an iPhone user... no fan of Blackberry... but I find it a bit nuts
when people make broadstroked arguements without any real support.

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pvodsevhcm
Why does the author pick 2012, as opposed to 2011 or 2013? There's no
explanation on the timeline, which is so prominent in the headline, just two
pictures. This is a pretty pointless article to make it onto HN's front page.

~~~
1337p337
It's just two pictures, and it _ignores_ the rest of the Blackberry line-up,
which includes touch-only devices and slide-outs. I was expecting some
announcement from RIM based on the title, and was disappointed to find this
content-free article by an iPhone platform-bigot. (Disclaimer: I'm not using
or a fan of either device.)

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AndyNemmity
Just had a phone upgrade at my work. Got to choose from Iphone and Blackberry.

Went with Blackberry. Many people thought my decision was crazy.

Except, I actually work from my Blackberry. I write emails, and ssh with it. I
need an actual real keypad, and not a toy.

For people like me, an Iphone is worthless.

~~~
count
Have you used an iphone for more than 5 minutes? I email, ssh, irc, twitter,
facebook, etc. with it all damn day. It's not a toy. You may like it better,
which is fine, and a personal decision. Your conclusion that the iphone is
worthless for 'people like you' is pretty far from the demonstrated truth
though.

~~~
1337p337
I have a work-issued iPhone, but use my personal phone anyway. Not to say that
the iPhone is useless, but it irks me if I have to look at my phone to do
things with it, like staring at the keyboard (and missing its autocomplete
mis-fires) or looking at it to change songs while driving. So, not to speak
for the person you're replying to, but the iPhone does happen to be useless
for people like me.

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contextfree
BlackBerry might be dead by next month for all I know, but the author of this
blog post has shown no particular insight or knowledge that gives me any
reason to think his understanding of RIM's prospects is any better than my own
(which is nonexistent). I don't like articles like this, they're just shallow
regurgitations of prevailing groupthink (in this guy's circles); if they're
right, it's by accident.

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digamber_kamat
Blackberry is struggling, its true. But then like an individual too there are
ups and downs in the life of an organization too. Yes, organizations die too
but their resilience is pretty strong they don't die easy.

Blackberry is not bring disruptive innovations instead they chose iterative
development that is because their customers need that kind of thing.

Besides RIM is positioning itself well in the emerging markets like India
where blackberry seems to be a new craze. IMO before writing off RIM we need
to wait for at least 5 more years to see how it performs. Also, it's
supposedly bad performances must be reflected in the balance-sheet as well
which is not the case currently.

Playbook is beating both Galaxy and Xoom to get the second position which is
not bad at all.

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spoiledtechie
Another thing the author fails to see is that Blackberry users are EXTREMELY
loyal. They love their devices and do an awesome job keeping with their fan
base. Its just like a cult movie. The user base stays loyal and the blackberry
will stay to be cult and only grow in popularity.

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martian
The product feels like it's lacking innovation, and among a crowd of hackers &
builders, it makes sense that this article would gain traction. I've heard
rumors that RIM will be adopting Android in the coming months. Regardless of
this claim, a company with as much money and momentum can't be discounted so
easily. It is foolish to claim that a Goliath is dead until you have his head
in your hands.

Let's think for a moment about other tech giants: HP, IBM, Intel, Microsoft,
and certainly Apple --whose resurrection story is legend.

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rchowe
The author is saying that they won't be relevant and doesn't give any context.
I believe they won't be relevant in the consumer market, because I think most
people would rather have a droid or an iPhone. However in the enterprise
market they're bought by IT, and RIM knows who's buying the phone, not who's
using the phone.

~~~
count
Of the 5 or 6 fortune 100's that I have contacts at, ALL of them are switching
or have switched to providing iphones instead of blackberrys by default. _ALL_
of them started this within the last year. 2012 is a rash prediction, given
their scale, I agree. I do think that Apple is eating their lunch though.

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unknown1313
All that really has to be said is look at the HUGE and active memberships at
sites like crackberry.com; obviously every one is going to have their prefs.
and opinions, but the author needs to do a little more research on who is
using the phones, at least before declaring one will be dead by such and such
date.

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rorrr
Blackberry is better for dealing with emails than any other phone. Plus RIM is
doing very well financially.

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georgieporgie
Isn't Blackberry the only company providing guaranteed messaging with latency
caps? (Verizon might, as well) This was an issue for the operations team at a
place where I worked. You couldn't use, say, T-Mobile because an SMS
notification about a broken server might never arrive, or might arrive after
an arbitrary delay.

