
We are winning the war on automobile deaths - bengarvey
http://evidensity.com/2011/08/28/were-winning-the-war-on-automobile-deaths/
======
nkurz
Number of miles driven seems like an important consideration. The following
graph is in an interesting (odd?) format, but it looks like the number of
miles driven by the average American has dropped every year since 2005:

<http://mbostock.github.com/protovis/ex/driving-full.html>

On the other hand, the improvements in safety are even more dramatic if you
consider the average person is driving about 3000 more miles per year than
they were in 1975.

As an aside, the Spark Lines are cute, but if the goal is conveying
information it would be nice if they expanded to something more detailed when
clicked on, rather than just repeating the same information. I was trying to
figure out if reduction in miles driven from 78-80 matched up with the this
articles data, but it was hard to tell.

~~~
jackpirate
You seem to imply that accident rates will be proportional to miles driven. I
doubt that is true. I would expect the graph of the "chance of an accident
_per mile_ " vs "miles driven" to look something like this:

    
    
      0
      | *
      | *
      |  *
      |   *
      |      *
      |           *
      |                    *           *          *
      | -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -   minimum accident rate
      |
      ---------------------------------------------- 0
    

I have two reasons:

First, as miles driven increases, driver experience increases. Accidents are
much more common among (I'm guessing) 16 year olds with a freshly minted
license than a 40 year old.

Second, as miles driven per year increases, the percentage of driving time
spent on the freeway increases (due to taking long trips, presumably the major
source of milage increase), but accidents are less likely on the freeway. This
argument is admittedly much more specious than the first.

Following this reasoning, it is not at all clear that "the improvements in
safety are even more dramatic if you consider the average person is driving
about 3000 more miles per year than they were in 1975" because those extra
miles may not be the most dangerous miles.

~~~
Zak
_First, as miles driven increases, driver experience increases._

I suspect this effect may not be as significant as you think. Certainly,
someone who has been driving every day for 20 years will usually be a better
driver than someone who has been driving every day for 20 days. I suspect the
difference between 2 years and 20 isn't all that dramatic though.

I further suspect that most driving is not _practice_ , by which I mean that
drivers are not actively thinking about their driving and how to be better at
it. Most of us, once we're reasonably proficient stop actively thinking about
the act of driving entirely unless an unusual situation occurs.

If your second reason turns out to be correct, then it also means that a
larger percentage of driving than before isn't useful practice for avoiding
crashes since highway driving tends to be safe and predictable.

------
tednaleid
It's not just airbags, a huge part of it is the greater availability of anti-
lock breaks and traction/stability control. My brother-in-law is one of the
head guys at GM working in this area and he talks about how life saving these
technologies are all the time.

There are lots of studies out there on this, this CNN article mentions a study
that says that 1/3 of deaths can be prevented by Electronic Stability Control:
[http://articles.cnn.com/2006-06-09/business/iihs_esc_1_multi...](http://articles.cnn.com/2006-06-09/business/iihs_esc_1_multi-
vehicle-esc-crash-deaths?_s=PM:AUTOS)

~~~
yason
ESC helps in many easy situations but it also allows people to push their
driving against the limits of their car. Now then, when ESC eventually fails
to correct the vehicle's direction and and grip the crash that follows is
usually much worse because there's nothing much that could be done within the
laws of physics at that point. I see new cars with ESC at the roadbeds every
winter, crashed to something.

Everything certainly comes in good and bad sides but I'm of the opinion that
good driving skills and controlled handling of the vehicle in various abnormal
situations is worth much more than ESC. I like to feel my car losing its grip
and controllability, should that happen, at the point where I can _still do
something_ about it.

About 90% percent of driving skills is avoiding unexpected uncontrollable
situations and the other 90% is about being able to handle them gracefully.

~~~
Zak
I grew up in Alaska and saw this sort of thing every fall with four wheel
drive. 4wd provides a significant advantage in acceleration on snowy/icy
roads, but does not help a car to stop faster or, barring experience with
rally driving techniques take a corner at higher speeds. People with 4wd would
regularly get overconfident either due to the ease of acceleration or a
mistaken belief that their cars could handle slippery corners better than
others and end up in the ditch.

------
vacri
In my home state of Victoria (Australia) we have gone from 1001 road
fatalities in 1970 to just over 300 per year, with a doubling of the state's
population to around 4-4.5 million.

I knew someone involved in a sizable study looking at what factors had the
biggest effects over time. There were plenty of small factors around certain
safety requirements/developments or traffic control, but there were only two
big factors: mandatory seat belts and extremely graphic advertisments, aka the
TAC ads.

The TAC ads basically showed you what accidents look like in real life, and
what you look like after an accident. None of this soft touch crap - the state
next door ran an anti-speeding campaign where they had people extending their
little finger at speeding drivers (as in 'little dick syndrome'). Absolutely
laughable and the folks who are the bulk of the problem - young men - ignore
crap like that.

But when you see an advert that has someone's head going through a windshield
in slo-mo, or a motorcycle rider coming off his bike crotch-first into an
oncoming van, or a hospital scene with a bloke in traction, it helps dissolve
the 'it won't happen to me' mindset. Not altogether, but it's no longer
conveniently put out of mind.

I'm at work so I can't find some youtubes to demonstrate, but the ads are
usually surprisingly 'real'. Needless to say, the ads are usually quite
shocking to people exposed to them for the first time.

~~~
bmunro
_None of this soft touch crap - the state next door ran an anti-speeding
campaign where they had people extending their little finger at speeding
drivers (as in 'little dick syndrome'). Absolutely laughable and the folks who
are the bulk of the problem - young men - ignore crap like that._

New South Wales (the state next door) has seen a similar reduction in deaths.
In about 1970, the death toll was around 1300 per year. It is now down to 367
in the last year, and has been averaging about 400 the last few years. NSW has
a population about 30% larger than Victoria.

The ads seen here (NSW) are mostly in in the same graphic vein as those seen
in Victoria. Indeed many of them are the same advertisements.

The 'pinky' ad was actually an attempt to reach the young men whom you say
would ignore it. It was though that they were actually ignoring the more
graphic ads, still thinking that it won't happen to them.

~~~
vacri
I didn't realise the TAC ads had come through to you blokes - the times I've
visited I've only seen ads like the pinky ones. I stand corrected. The pinky
ads are still stupid, though - as if the problematic young blokes are going to
respond to that :)

------
noonespecial
I'm thinking its because we didn't "declare war" on traffic deaths. Auto
safety has more or less inhabited that strange place where even politicians
were inclined to use real science and employ evidence based programs to make
driving safer.

If only they'd tried such a sane approach when it came to recreational drugs.

~~~
bengarvey
I chose the language in the title intentionally to draw the parallel. I've
never heard a single politician in the US even mention it as a problem.

------
filiwickers
Unfortunately, winning the "war on automobile deaths" does not help those who
choose other modes of transportation. More in-car technology creates a more
dangerous environment for those outside the car.

Pedestrian deaths have dropped over the time period but not nearly at the same
rate as driver deaths. We are seeing more fatalities from distracted and
intoxicated drivers.

I think it is about time we stop focusing on safe cars. We need to create
roads that are safe for people, not just cars.

~~~
yason
Indeed! There's an inverse correlation between automobile safety and
pedestrian safety. Cars like wide roads, wide lanes, sparse crossings, road
sides with everything removed that you might bump into whereas pedestrians are
more safe in pretty much the opposite environment.

------
ddw
I'm JUST starting some data analysis of this in my city so I don't have much
factual evidence yet but I heard something like wearing a safety belt doubles
your chance of survival.

There are many low budget things that governments can do to help prevent even
fender benders (which have an economic cost) and luckily at least in my city
it's data driven. Signage, road conditions, weather and light analysis and
more play a part.

While here the police don't capture it at the scene of an accident, I bet that
pedestrian headphone use causes at least a few accidents. I bike everyday and
am constantly stunned that other bicyclists will be wearing headphones will
driving around. Kind of need all of your senses out there.

------
naner
_Where did this improvement come from?_

If I had to guess, I'd say almost entirely from safety improvements in
automobiles. It seems like this perfect little engineering problem (reduce #
of deaths/serious injury of people in our cars) which lends itself to
continuous improvement over time. Collect and analyze data, develop and apply
technology based on results, test improvement effectiveness, iterate forever.

------
andrewtbham
I think there are more game changing safety features just coming into
production like:

blind spot monitors <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blind_spot_monitor>

Lane departure warning systems.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lane_departure_warning_system>

Precrash systems, like attention assist.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precrash_system>

~~~
bengarvey
Great list, thanks.

------
chrismealy
A lot of this is just because unemployment is 9% and fewer people have jobs to
drive to.

~~~
msellout
Perhaps we should say that people are driving less because there is less
commercial incentive to do so. A slower-growing economy has higher
unemployment and less need for trucking, etc.

