
Facebook will do much better than you think - kposehn
http://venturebeat.com/2012/05/16/hey-doomsayers-facebook-will-do-much-better-than-you-think/
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oskarth
Maybe it will, maybe it won't. I think one important question _to ask oneself_
is this: would I - in any way - like to be a part of making Facebook a real
force to be reckoned with?

I don't mind Google, Amazon, Apple or Twitter (much). I do mind Facebook.

I suspect I'm not alone having these feelings. If you feel the same way,
please re-consider your contribution to making Facebook a success.

Apologizes in advance if this came across as "political" or libel or something
akin to that, but I do believe these (last few and) coming years will have a
very lasting impact on the way we use internet. Personally targeted ads, cyber
espionage and Facebook connect aren't exactly "nice things" in my book, and
probably won't be in the history books either.

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pirateking
For me there is a wide spectrum between good and evil. Where a particular
company falls onto this spectrum is based on how much I feel it has
contributed to pushing humanity forward. This is definitely subjective stuff.
Among the major players, I also put Google, Amazon, Apple and Twitter on the
good side. There are concerns on many fronts with each of them, but up until
now their net contributions have pushed humanity forward.

Facebook too has pushed things, enabling a new level of connectivity across
the planet. The costs we have paid for this outweigh the benefits. I do not
believe the net contributions of Facebook have made the world a better place
for humans - thus, they fall on the evil side of the spectrum. Similarly,
Microsoft did help bring forth the era of a computer in every home among other
things, but their methods also held back progress enough to place them on the
evil side of the spectrum. And then there are companies like Zynga - no need
to even guess which side they fall on. I cannot in good conscience support a
company that harms our future, and in fact feel an obligation to fight them.

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dm8
If FB launches Adsense like product then that would be massive. Lot of
websites have FB connect integrated into them and given the amount of data
users have on FB you can do some solid targeting.

Edit: Grammar

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joering2
they won't launch Adsense killer. Don't have stats with me, but seen it
yesterday that CPM clickthrough Google vs Fb is 2:1. AdSense is very well
positioned since ever. I don't think you could convince an average website
owner to switch to FB Ads for 50% less in profits.

~~~
clarky07
That's not really a fair assessment. When people are on facebook they are
there to be on facebook. When people are on google they are specifically
looking to go somewhere else. Of course they are going to have a higher click-
through.

When you are talking about another website, we get to a middle ground that
might be looking for something specific and might just be browsing. Having all
of facebooks data about someone and giving them targeted ads could very well
work better than google at that point on the spectrum.

I'm not saying it will be better, but it's certainly possible, and comparing
google's clicks to facebook is comparing apples to oranges. As someone who has
several websites using adsense I would certainly be willing to give facebook a
trial run and do some A/B testing.

~~~
joering2
OK, I see your point. But still the question remains if FB could convince
popular websites to try Ads with them. It would definitely be an interesting
to see the results.

~~~
clarky07
Yeah keep in mind that the really popular websites don't use adsense. They
sell their own advertising space for more than they can make using adsense.
Most website owners like to a/b test all kinds of things though. I've tried
lots of different ways of monetizing mine and have ended up back at adsense
because it's been the best for me. Given that, I would definitely test
facebook to see how it did and if it did better i'd keep it, if not I'd go
back to adsense.

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barbazfoo12
"Facebook can now use data on users to serve them ads when they are not on the
Facebook website."

"This could generate billions."

Or it could prime even more users for a privacy-respecting alternative.

~~~
farnsworth
Google does the same thing. So what? If I'm going to have to look at ads, I'd
rather they be relevant. I've actually found Facebook ads genuinely useful on
a few occasions. I even applied for a job that I heard about on a Facebook ad
once. What I hate is when my friend uses my computer to search for tents, then
all I see is tent ads all over the internet for the next month.

~~~
barbazfoo12
lol. I hear ya. (But I think Google and Facebook's data are qualitatively a
bit different.)

It's anyone's guess whether this online privacy stuff really means anything to
most people. Obviously Google, Facebook, et al. are hedging their bets that
it's not a big deal.

As users we can only speak for ourselves. This is because we generally don't
watch others, looking over their shoulder as they use a computer to see
exactly what they do... which raises an interesting question: Does that imply
that we are recognising some sort of right to privacy? A lot of effort goes
into trying to figure out how others use a computer. But unless it's study of
volunteers it's not done by just standing behind them and watching.

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siavosh
The biggest wild card from my perspective is that the premise and promise of
facebook is that it remains cool. People didn't use google to be cool.
Twitter, to my friends and I, was actually pretty uncool initially and now has
become my primary news feed. If today's tweens and teeny boppers don't jump
ship in the next five years, then facebook may have really become the
infrastructure company it claims/desires to be, until then, the doubts will
linger.

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greenyoda
The half-life of "cool" is very short. Facebook started out as a hangout for
college kids, and then it became the cool alternative to MySpace. But now,
when parents and grandparents are using Facebook, is it really cool anymore?
If boring corporations like enterprise software companies have a presence on
Facebook, that would also seem to detract from its coolness. At some point,
when everyone is on Facebook, not being on Facebook will become the cool new
thing.

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obtino
There are a lot of 'ifs' in this article. This is the shortcomming with
Facebook. Where are the results? Facebook's filings to the SEC have not been
that impressive. At the end of the day, it's all about the revenue! If the
revenue does not match the wild expectations that have been placed on this
stock, it will dive!

~~~
joering2
Just as much as they are predicting the biggest IPO of the history, I am
predicting the biggest downslide in the shortest possible time, given what you
said and all the good publicity will wash away and someone will ask: "show me
the money".

edit: I am not saying it will happen the same day or this month. I am rather
saying that sooner or later just like lots of people were buying on hype, lots
of people will be selling on hype as well.

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shrike
What about search? If Facebook could ship a search product somewhere between
the quaility of Bing and Google wouldn't that change the search and social
space tremendously? It would increase the amount of time each user spends on
FB/day, Facebook would deliver far more ads and build much more extensive user
profiles, increasing the value/user metric.

Building a big search product requires a massive infrastructure and
engineering effort, two things Facebook has a solid history around.

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stewie2
I don't need facebook.

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oh_sigh
Facebook is going to do great for the first 2-3 years - until the big
investors convince everyone that facebook is here to stay. Then, the bloodbath
will begin.

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jkuria
good intent but the op must not be familiar with online advertising. It is
very hard to command $20 CPM (or the equivalent in CPC) on no search traffic
(where people are not actively looking for a solution). Even big brands that
do 'image' advertising and do not care about immediate ROI would balk at such
a figure. Case in point: GM just pulled out of FB

~~~
kposehn
A $20 CPM would be a stretch for larger target segments, but a more reasonable
$4 CPM would be quite realistic.

