

Another Silly Startup Analogy - seank
http://diegobasch.com/another-silly-startup-analogy

======
mindcrime
What is it with this recent, rampant meme anyway? "Oh, startups, it's all
luck". Some people just seem determined to denigrate even the _idea_ that hard
work, blood, sweat, tears and sheer force of will can lead someone to success.

I don't buy it. I don't think that was ever true, and I think it's even less
true today.

Today we can run startups with far less overhead and at far lower cost, thanks
to open-source, cloud computing, social media and other developments, and we
can build profitable, successful startups without necessarily needing to build
"the next Facebook".

Thanks to @sgblank and others in the Lean Startup community, we have developed
much more detailed processes for going from Idea -> Company -> Company with
Customers, leaving less to happenstance than ever before.

The Internet - Angel List, Twitter, LinkedIn, Hoovers, and other resources,
make it easier than ever to find customers, partners, investors, resellers and
the like.

I keep coming back to this old saw, which - despite being a total cliche - has
the ring of truth to it:

 _The harder I work, the luckier I get_

or maybe this one:

 _Luck is where preparation meets opportunity_

Closing thought:

 _They're sitting out there waiting to give you their money. Are you gonna
take it? Are you man enough to take it?_

...

 _The money is out there, you pick it up, it's yours. You don't, I got no
sympathy for ya_ [1]

[1]: <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kZg_ALxEz0>

~~~
baddox
> Some people just seem determined to denigrate even the idea that hard work,
> blood, sweat, tears and sheer force of will can lead someone to success.

I think the bigger issue is that there are a lot more people that invest hard
work, blood, sweat, etc. _and fail_ than people who do all those things and
succeed. It's still silly to say it's _all_ luck, but I think it's fair to say
that luck (by which I just mean circumstances that cannot be predicted or
controlled by the founders/workers) plays a large part in success.

~~~
mindcrime
_I think the bigger issue is that there are a lot more people that invest hard
work, blood, sweat, etc. and fail than people who do all those things and
succeed._

I should have explained my position a bit more clearly... what I'm getting at
is that, in business, you don't ever _fail_ the way you do in this game show
scenario. In the show, you get _one_ shot at the "win" and you win or lose, do
or die, game over. In Real Life, as long as you're breathing, you get to _keep
trying_. Failure is never final. If Startup A doesn't succeed, you take the
lessons you learned from it, and do Startup B. The only way you ever really
fail is when you run out of time.

Given that, I posit that if you are dedicated, determined and persistent
enough, you can _usually_ find a way to success through "blood, swear, tears
and sheer force of will".

Yes, "black swan" events can come along and cripple you, but I'm treating
those as outliers that aren't significant for the point of this conversation.
You may, of course, disagree with that position.

------
codex
The best startup analogy is that of a band. Everybody is in one, or if not,
they want to be. A lot of work and sweat is invested, often after hours. If
you get kicked out, or the band breaks up, you start another. Everyone dreams
of making it big, but few do, and a lot end up making a lot less money than
they think they will due to the record labels (VCs). But the dream lives on.

~~~
pellias
That's when someone realise and came up with the idea of American Idol and
screws up the whole process.

~~~
markdown
Techcrunch 50, Demo day?

------
thrush
Just to confirm, because I fear the game show has a loophole, what is
preventing you from eyeballing the key when he picks it, memorizing the
notches, then you have a much better chance of getting the correct one.
Prisoners have been known to memorize notches on a key in order to build
duplicates and break out of jail.

~~~
RKoutnik
The correct key wasn't put on full display, and the kids didn't really get
much time to look over each key to pick the right one. He may have been able
to determine the head shape in that time, but not much else.

------
PabloOsinaga
I was a contestant in that show back then. I did win the skill based game and
got to the final round. I was absolutely certain that I was going to pick the
winning key (it's nuts to think that, I know). It's funny how even that is
similar to startups.

------
carimura
Nice analogy. Feel that way all the time.

------
realrocker
The analogy fits.

~~~
mindcrime
I don't see it. In the game, you pick one key, right? And it either works or
it doesn't. It's totally binary, and total chance.

Success in business doesn't work like that. As long as you're alive and aren't
dead broke and destitute you can keep trying (keep pulling another key) and
there are degrees of success... you might _only_ build a multi-million dollar
company and not a billion dollar company. OK, how sad. Or maybe you get
acquired for just enough where you, as a founder, walk away with a million
even. What a tragedy.

And finally, I believe that skill matters, and that business success is not
just a question of chance. Sure, and unlucky "black swan" negative event can
short-circuit you, but you don't necessarily _need_ "good luck" to succeed.
You can chip away at it slowly, grind, build, grind, build, sweat, bleed,
grind, build, and work your way up.

~~~
freework
The point is that some people grind, build, grind, build, sweat, bleed, grind,
build their whole lives without ever getting that stroke of good luck that
brings success.

------
wavesum
Depressing analogy :(

