
Unemployment Rate in U.S. stands to hit 32% says Federal Reserve - mmhsieh
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/4/1/21201700/coronavirus-covid-19-unemployment-rate
======
someguy101010
The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that unemployment rose to 4.4% in
March [1]. The article mentions that this was a back of the envelope
calculation so I'm not going to panic just yet.

[1]
[https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/20...](https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/03/us-
jobs-report-march-unemployment-coronavirus)

~~~
pridkett
Note that the reference week in this month’s job report only went through
March 12th. That was before the back to back record weeks of first time
unemployment claims of 3mm and 6mm. Despite all that, the job report was still
significantly worse than predicted (701k losses vs consensus of 100k losses).

Yes, this back of the envelope calculation may be a worst case, but the
situation is far worse than a 4.4% unemployment rate. Look for revisions to
make this even worse.

------
awaythrower
Stagflation ahead.

[https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/what-comes-after-
coronavirus...](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/what-comes-after-coronavirus-
for-economy-worry-about-stagflation.html)

 _Get ready for 'stagflation'_

[https://youtu.be/6psKnT5a4Gg](https://youtu.be/6psKnT5a4Gg)

Also, the US unemployment numbers are highly-politicized and manipulated. For
one, they fail to account for the labor force participation rate, livable
wages, employment hours desired vs. actual, having to work multiple jobs while
being unable to save, or not/having healthcare.

~~~
RickJWagner
I hope not. I remember stagflation from the Carter-era, it was a pretty dismal
time.

------
dntbnmpls
[Dupe]

"Job losses could total 47M, unemployment 32%, St. Louis Fed president says"

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22730170](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22730170)

Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemployment rate

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22732953](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22732953)

------
rdtwo
CBO estimate was 10% that’s probably conservatively low but still not in the
range of 32.

[https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56314](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56314)

------
zapttt
why a state fed is making those predictions?

------
kasperni
Lock-down or not, people are not going to be spending any money as long as
there is a worldwide health crisis.

