
Colin Powell Says Israel Has 200 Nukes in Leaked Email - uptown
http://www.newsweek.com/colin-powell-says-israel-has-200-nukes-leaked-email-499192
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danso
While I think the subject of Powell's email getting hacked is very interesting
-- he's admitted to the hack but have we learned any technical details
regarding how his GMail account was breached? -- this doesn't appear to be a
very newsworthy insight.

First of all, he's not writing as a Secretary of State, so the number "200"
could be conjecture, he certainly doesn't seem to be making an appeal to
authority, i.e. "When _I_ was at State, Israel told us etc etc etc". Who are
the "boys in Tehran" who know that Israel has 200? CIA spies? The negotiators?
Diplomats?

Meanwhile, President Carter has been giving _speeches_ and interviews about
this for years:
[http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/09/isr...](http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/09/israel-
nuclear-weapons-secret-united-states/380237/)

> _Former CIA Director Robert Gates said so during his 2006 Senate
> confirmation hearings for secretary of defense, when he noted—while serving
> as a university president—that Iran is surrounded by “powers with nuclear
> weapons,” including “the Israelis to the west.” Former President Jimmy
> Carter said so in 2008 and again this year, in interviews and speeches in
> which he pegged the number of Israel’s nuclear warheads at 150 to around
> 300._

~~~
sandworm101
They don't need spies to count the actual bombs. One can estimate the number
through a combination of knowing which warhead tech Israel has acquired and an
estimate of their production capacity. Whether it is Israel or North Korea,
the math is the same.

Or, assuming that Israel has had time to make far more bombs that it needs,
one can estimate the stockpile through a measurement of potential delivery
systems. 150 missiles + 50 aircraft = at most 200 warheads.

~~~
daemin
So the number of actual warheads could be far greater, but it is effectively
only as many as the number of delivery vehicles. Especially in the event of a
full nuclear war, since they won't exactly be able to go back and rearm with
those spare warheads.

~~~
sandworm101
These things aren't cheap to build or maintain. And trying to keep 300 things
secret is harder than 100. So no nation has a pile of extras lying around.
Even the US/UK actually have far fewer warheads than delivery systems. Not
every warhead on every missile in every sub is always armed. So counting the
delivery mechanisms gives you an upper limit. I think this is the source of
the 200 number. Of course Israel is a little odd. They are the one nuclear
power obsessed with invasion of a very small territory. They may have some
static plans, large warheads meant to be detonated at fixed positions rather
than be 'delivered' by missile or bomber. That is a complication.

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thieving_magpie
I think what's far more interesting is his dismissive attitude toward Iran
possessing a nuclear weapon. How would they test it? What would they do,
polish it? It puts the Iranian nuclear deal in an interesting context.

As for Israel possessing 200 nukes, I'm sure that surprises no one. Yeah they
don't publicly address it but anyone remotely familiar with their foreign
policy would have known this for some time.

~~~
nabla9
The idea that Iranian theocracy is crazy and determined to destroy Israel even
at the cost of the destruction of Iran and collapse of their state is
convenient fiction. I think most IR scholars think that Iran wants to be
regional power next to Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

It's easy to use threatening soundbites in both sides. Axis of evil and Death
to the America are just slogans. Theocratic leaders of Iran are first and
foremost cynical and calculating politicians.

~~~
JoeAltmaier
Maybe too much credit? They are first, theologians. Explains much of what they
do.

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feltmind
Israel prosecuted one its citizens for disclosing this type of information in
the 1980s.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mordechai_Vanunu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mordechai_Vanunu)

~~~
contingencies
They didn't just prosecute him - they illegally abducted him from Australia,
dragged him back to Israel, locked him in prison and threw away the key.

~~~
cema
Italy, not Australia. Released in 2004 (according to Wikipedia, did not dig
further).

~~~
contingencies
He was abducted via honeytrap from Sydney, but physically overpowered and
drugged once in Rome.

Your comment implies he is free. He spent 18 years in prison, including more
than 11 in solitary confinement, and while 'released' is apparently
surveilled, subject to a lot of restrictions and forced to stay in Israel.

    
    
        he shall not be able to have contacts with foreigners
    
        his telephone and Internet use shall be monitored
    
        he shall not enter Internet chat rooms
    
        he shall not own cellular phones
    
        he shall not approach or enter embassies and consulates
    
        he shall not come within 500 meters of any international border crossing
    
        he shall not visit any port of entry into Israel
    
        he shall not leave Israel

~~~
cema
My comment does not imply that.

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koolba
I'm pretty sure everybody assumes they've got nukes already. It's an open
secret. Whether it's 100 or 200 at home doesn't really change much either.

~~~
agumonkey
What worries me a bit is Isreal is a bit trigger sensitive and prone to throw
stuff defensively. I hope they never reach nuclear level anxiety.

~~~
fit2rule
More worrying is the fact that Israel considers its secret nuclear arsenal to
be a primary motivating force when dealing with its relations with _Western
nations_. The 'Goliath' program has a very, very sinister purpose: to hold the
world ransom with nuclear deterrents, such that Israel gets its way no matter
what.

~~~
agumonkey
That's the only field use for Nukes anyway right ? Every country wants it as
big muscle to show up to other neighbors in negotiations. I'm curious if the
200 count is growing or if it's only remains of the post WW2 nuclear spread.

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ythl
I'm tolerant of Edward Snowden-related politics on HN, but this just appears
to be straight up politics with little/nothing related to tech.

~~~
tantalor
You are right,

 _Off-Topic: Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, unless they 're
evidence of some interesting new phenomenon. Videos of pratfalls or disasters,
or cute animal pictures. If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-
topic._

[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html)

~~~
ceejayoz
Read a little further.

> Please don't submit comments complaining that a submission is inappropriate
> for the site. If you think a story is spam or off-topic, flag it by clicking
> on its 'flag' link.

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DanielBMarkham
Colin Powell has to be one of the few people who has had their privacy invaded
and has come out looking better because of it.

It's a very strange cultural thing going on with this hack. I've read three
articles about the hack, and depending on the political views of the author,
Colin agrees with him. If the author doesn't like Trump? Colin said some bad
things about him. If the author doesn't like Clinton? Same thing.

Of course, I'm sure the reality is that he was frank and biting about all of
them, but the reporting on this leak is like an exercise in propaganda -- find
something true that demoralizes the other guys, then publish it.

I feel sorry the guy got robbed, and I hope they catch whoever did it, but I'm
not holding my breath.

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nxzero
This is not news, here's a report from 2007 covering the topic in detail:
[https://fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/nuke/](https://fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/nuke/)

("Updated 2007" is in the footer of the page.)

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AKifer
An interesting engineering question that needs to be raised is, given no known
nuclear test conducted by Israel, how do they know about the reliability of
their design ? Assuming they built the warheads by themselves. Did they use
foreign blueprints ? Or did foreign countries tested their weapons under their
[the foreign country's] official program ? Or do they have access to advanced
computation models [which is less probable given they had these weapons since
the 70s]

~~~
dingaling
They are believed ti have tested at least once, in the South Atlantic in 1979.

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durzagott
Is there any speculation as to where Israel got it's nukes? Did they develop
them independently? If so where did they test them anyway?

For what it's worth, I think Colin Powell is right: Iran doesn't want to
develop nukes as an offensive weapon. What they really want is a seat at the
grown-up table and to prevent regime change being imposed on them.

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YeGoblynQueenne
I wonder if this was "hacked" (as in, leaked) as some kind of warning to Iran,
perhaps following one of those diplomatic incidents that never make it to the
popular press.

Not that it's very productive to wonder this sort of thing, since I don't have
any way to know what's up, but I can't help to wonder anyway.

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jkot
I am more worried about Saudi Arabia. It paid a lot of money to Pakistan.

