
Stephen Hawking to turn 70, defying disease - edw519
http://www.heraldonline.com/2012/01/05/3638890/stephen-hawking-to-turn-70-defying.html
======
giberson
Hate to raise a cynical tone, but in all likelihood his his longevity is
mostly due to him having money. I expect, that in most cases patients with
similar motor neurone diseases, their money simply runs out--unable to afford
ongoing medications, care and new treatments, they die from the disease they
simply can't afford to treat.

~~~
parfe
>in all likelihood his his longevity is mostly due to him having money.

I think you mean "Socialized Medicine"

 _"I wouldn't be here today if it were not for the NHS," [Hawking] said. "I
have received a large amount of high-quality treatment without which I would
not have survived...."_

[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/08/12/stephen-hawking-
ent...](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/08/12/stephen-hawking-enters-
us_n_257343.html)

~~~
gnaritas
Yea, you don't need money to be healthy in a civilized country. Someday,
America might catch on, but I'm not holding my breath.

~~~
paulhauggis
"Yea, you don't need money to be healthy in a civilized country."

You just need enough other people's money.

"Someday, America might catch on, but I'm not holding my breath."

Why is it that anyone with any kind of money that needs urgent care comes to
the US? I will give you a hint: it's not because of nationalized health care.

Our system isn't perfect and is expensive, but in my opinion, it's the best in
the world (in terms of quality doctors, surgery, and hospitals).

~~~
aamar
_Why is it that anyone with any kind of money that needs urgent care comes to
the US? I will give you a hint: it's not because of nationalized health care._

Many of the inbound medical tourists to the U.S. are coming from countries
that don't have nationalized health care or are coming because their
nationalized health care system is paying most of the cost of their care and
trip. Relatively few are buying their way into better care vs. a nationalized
health system.

Also, the number of inbound U.S. medical tourists is around 70,000[1], while
the number of outbound U.S. medical tourists is around 650,000[2] (surgery
dominates). There are many factors involved here, but as a basic matter, it
would be simpler to say that people _leave_ the U.S. for medical care much
more than they visit for it.

[1] 2008 number: [http://www.forbes.com/2008/05/25/health-hospitals-care-
forbe...](http://www.forbes.com/2008/05/25/health-hospitals-care-forbeslife-
cx_avd_outsourcing08_0529healthoutsourcing.html)

[2] 2009 number: <http://www.tampabay.com/news/health/article1079824.ece>

~~~
andyking
It's quite regular that local media in Britain will report on a fundraising
drive to send someone (often with a rare condition, sometimes not) to America
for treatment because the NHS won't pay - here's an example just from today,
where a family's trying to raise ~$100,000:
<http://www.moorlandsradio.co.uk/2012/01/help-katie/>

It's not because our health service is poor - in fact, it's excellent for
general healthcare and I literally trust it with my life. The country (as in
you, me, everyone who pays taxes) sadly just can't afford to treat very
expensive edge cases, or send people for highly expensive experimental
procedures, without jeopardising the sustainability of the service for others.
Conversely in America, if you have the money, you get the treatment.

~~~
parfe
In America, insurance companies call that an "experimental procedure" and they
wouldn't cover it either.

Meanwhile for every case you can find for someone traveling to America, there
can be an identical case found for someone traveling to Europe.

[http://www.kulr8.com/news/local/Cerebral-Palsy-
Fundraiser-10...](http://www.kulr8.com/news/local/Cerebral-Palsy-
Fundraiser-102670054.html)

~~~
michaelcampbell
> Meanwhile for every case you can find for someone traveling to America,
> there can be an identical case found for someone traveling to Europe.

You've found 1, which hardly equates to "every".

Do you have any actual data? I'd be curious to see what the _real_ difference
is between "them" coming "here" vs. "us" going "there".

~~~
parfe
Sure, check wikipedia on medical tourism. An order of magnitude more people
leave the US than enter to seek medical treatment.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_tourism#United_States>

My point in finding one was that sensational stories about fund raising for
medical treatment make easy news filler. Linking to any of them is
meaningless!

America has a medicore health care system. We excel in some experimental
treatments, and have some great medical centers for those with money.

Meanwhile we rank equal to Cuba on life expectancy
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expec...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy)

------
harold
I've often wondered if his sense of purpose, and ability to continue working
are what have contributed to his longevity. Certainly inspiring to see what he
has accomplished in his lifetime so far.

~~~
robin_reala
My dad died of MND in 2003 after a fairly short length of time, somewhere in
the region of 3.5 years after diagnosis. I put Dr Hawking’s longevity at least
partially to being happy to work completely in his brain. Conversely, my dad
was a very phsyical person and always had some project to build on the go.
When that was taken away from him he seemed diminished.

Incidentally, he did try to carry on coding using Dragon Dictate, but it was
painful to watch. I wonder if speech recognition has come on any since then?
Apple’s Siri seems fairly remarkable although I haven’t had a chance to use it
yet. Is anyone on HN coding by speech?

~~~
lutorm
I completed a large fraction of my thesis by speech, including coding and
LaTeX. While there are tools to help with coding (there used to be many
knowledgeable people at <http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/VoiceCoder/>, but
I'm not up to date since my condition has improved) I wouldn't want to wish it
on my worst enemy. I'm amazed that Hawking has te patience to function like
that, he must be an extremely driven individual.

------
gerggerg
If you haven't seen it yet, his most recent show on the Discovery channel is
incredible. It includes a lot from his previous writings but some new stuff
too and it's all set to pretty stunning effects and a great soundtrack
reminiscent of scifi movies from the 70s and 80s. You can check it out here:

<http://dsc.discovery.com/tv/stephen-hawking/>

and the whole series is on netflix. It's truly amazing. Don't miss it.

~~~
mitchellhislop
His discussions and examples for why we wont be able to travel back in time
are perfect for explaining the concept for people. He manages to communicate
such high level stuff in such a great way on that show (well, always, but the
show is much more approachable to the masses).

------
teju
I think it's a combination of top notch care and an engaged mind. Even the
medical establishment is acknowledging the connection between state of the
mind and health (placebo effect research).

On a lighter note, here is something the great physicist cannot fathom:
[http://news.yahoo.com/women-mystery-british-physicist-
hawkin...](http://news.yahoo.com/women-mystery-british-physicist-
hawking-135814776.html)

------
ckayatek
I did ALS research in grad school and his case seems to be an outlier.
Generally ALS is late onset (55+) and rapidly lethal (<3 years expected
survival). That being said, early onset cases are often slower to progress and
if I remember correctly his onset was in his late 20s, which is very early.
There are really no medications or treatments that are effective for ALS, no
matter how much money you have.

------
helmut_hed
As a native South Carolinian, I encourage everyone to read the comments on the
original article, and compare them in tone, content, and relevance to those
posted on HN.

~~~
veidr
OK. Top-voted comments from the site:

1\. "...making a killing on hypothetical theories... pie in the sky science.
I'm sick and tired of these theories... Lying to keep the global warming cash
cow rolling..."

2\. "When Hawking stands at The Great White Throne Judgement and asks why he
(Hawking) is being cast into the Lake of Fire, Jesus will tell him... _blah
blah blah_ "

4\. "I think that Mr Hawking is going to be in for a big surprise when he is
standing before the throne of God..."

Etc. etc. etc.

Comparing tone, content, and relevance, I'd say three to nil HN. Was that your
point?

------
TWSS
What this points out to me is how little we know about ALS/MND. The majority
of those diagnosed die within three years, but a handful can survive for
decades.

Do bulbar onset ALS patients live longer than limb onset? What about those
with familial ALS? Were patients who die sooner exposed to an environmental
trigger? ALS is significantly more common among military veterans than the
general public - why, and is their survival rate better or worse than
civilians?

I love that Dr. Hawking has survived so long. He contributes to awareness of
ALS and gives patients hope. But I sometimes wonder if it's a sadistic,
unrealistic hope and if his longevity decreases the urgency of the need for
research into causes and treatment of a disease that is a death sentence for
the majority of those diagnosed with it.

~~~
ckayatek
I can answer some of your questions. The longevity and age of onset of
patients with familial ALS is partially dependent on the mutation they harbor.
That being said, genetic background is an important contributor. Fortunately
or unfortunately, familial ALS isn't common enough to have significant
statistics on the matter. To my knowledge there is no solid proof that
environmental factors play a role in ALS. I'm fairly certain some will be
discovered, but to date specific factors that enhance or prevent ALS are not
known. On the issue of veterans, it is thought that the enhanced physical
activity may be the cause for the increased risk of ALS, though the increase
is merely 2 fold and once again the statistics are poor. If I remember
correctly, this increased risk was present for both combat veterans and those
that didn't see any combat. Once again outcomes are identical with the
civilian population.

I don't believe that his longevity decreases the urgency for research into the
matter. However, compared with disorders such as Alzheimer's disease, cancer,
and heart disease, which combined will affect some large percentage of the
population, the 1:1000 lifetime risk for ALS makes it somewhat insignificant.

~~~
TWSS
Thanks for answering my questions. While the lifetime risk of ALS is
(relatively) low, I feel that its high mortality rate should increase the
importance of funding research.

------
Splines
I wonder what his life would have been like had he not have ALS?

------
JacobIrwin
Such a remarkable human being - I hope someone can help speed up his ability
to communicate. If this does not happen, we may miss out on a lot of great
wisdom Hawking has to share (during the [what is sure to seem like a] short
remaining he has left).

------
mathattack
As a society we are lucky to have both his intelligence and patience for all
these years.

------
WhatsHisName
Has anyone proven that he has ALS? That is, are there proven genetic or other
markers that can correctly diagnose the disease? For example does he have a
defective super oxide dismutate or heme oxygenase one?

------
sun123
It raises the age old question again. I sometimes think how people achieve so
much.

May be being immobile saves his energy from distraction and helps leaves time
to think about black holes.

~~~
blasterford
I know it's going to be a very unpopular opinion here, but I find it hard to
see the worth in thinking about black holes and other physics/astronomy
questions.

Is the large hadron collider really worth the money?

Can someone highlight some real world advances that this sort of thing
provides? eg will it make holographic TVs possible or hoverboards?

~~~
pessimist
When the Queen asked Michael Faraday of what use his funny experiments with
magnets would amount to, he is reported to have said - "Of what use is a new
born baby?"

From another angle, during some collider hearings in congress, the physicist
RObert Wilson was asked: "Did the collider have anything to do with promoting
“the security of the country”"? He replied "nothing to do directly with
defending our country except to make it worth defending".

In other words, fundamental research has definite technological implications,
but also just satisfying our curiosity about nature is reason enough.

------
michaelcampbell
He's the intellectual version of Chuck Norris.

------
Mordor
He'll outlive us all lol

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shingen
Is there a good reason why he isn't the intense focus of technology dedicated
to reading brain signals to action results through a computer + display?

There are already functional systems that paralyzed people have used to
communicate through on-screen selections in that manner. Surely Stephen
Hawking can acquire the technology and afford the upkeep. Hell, surely MIT or
someone out there would build a custom rig for him and focus on constantly
improving it to get more productivity out of his marvelous brain while he's
still here.

------
bitwize
True, I think the Hawkman is awesome, but his longevity in the face of disease
probably has a lot to do with him being a groundbreaking physicist whom
society deems valuable enough to keep alive at great cost.

