

Should Venture Firms Invest In Robotics? - Garbage
http://blogs.wsj.com/venturecapital/2011/04/06/mit-prof-turned-entrepreneur-pitches-nvca-on-robotics/

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jonnathanson
I know the phrase is WSJ's and not Brooks's own, but I take issue with "...the
next Industrial Revolution." It's such an overused and seldom-realized
promise. I've heard it said about robotics, about nanotechnology, about
quantum computing, about cellular biology, about green tech, and about
everything from cold fusion to lukewarm superconductors.

Point is, there are any number of potential gamechangers already laying claim
to the title. I have little doubt that _any_ of these things, past a certain
inflection point, could indeed bring about a new Industrial Revolution. But
from an investment standpoint, which one actually has the clearest path to
payoff in the shortest window?

That's what VCs care about. Most of them aren't in the business of placing
general bets on long-term trends. They'd much rather invest in specific
companies or technologies that show specifically accelerated promise within a
given sector. They don't want to invest in nanotech, for instance; they want
to invest in the best company _within_ nanotech, and at the right moment.

[For what it's worth, I applaud iRobot and Brooks for being a leading
_company_ within the commercialization of robotics, and not just being wild-
eyed cheerleaders for the overall field.]

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Apocryphon
Any mention of new interest in robotics always reminds me of Cory Doctorow's
article in Wired from 2004:
<http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.07/machines.html>

_But for all of Asimov's ability to entertain us with his ideas, there's still
no sign 65 years after his first robot story was penned of the artificial
intelligence he envisioned. There's Asimo, Honda's million-dollar humaniform
bot, which can move only when a real person is driving it, and Roomba, the
autonomous robo-vacuum from iRobot whose movements resemble those of insects.
Unlike rocketry - a real engineering discipline inspired by science fiction -
intelligent robots (and virtual reality for that matter, which 20 years after
cyberpunk is pretty much dead in the water) serve best as metaphors for the
zeitgeist of their eras._

Which makes me wonder- will there be new interest in VR as well? Or has AR
made the concept obsolete until relevant advances in neurology produce The
Matrix-style mindjacking?

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bitwize
The problem with VR was simulation sickness: the goggles and your balance
system were telling you two different things. It probably won't really take
off until we can construct hi-res hi-def simulated worlds with visual, audio,
tactile, and orientation components and pump that data directly into our
nervous systems (as in _The Matrix_ ).

Robots, however, are practical. And the smarter they are, the more practical
they become. Think self-driving automobiles, or robots that interact safely
with humans on a factory or warehouse floor. They just won't look like Rosie
from _The Jetsons_ , or any sort of fanciful 20th-century-science-fiction
robot, for some decades yet.

(Or will they? Anyone else see the BigDog videos and immediately think "Metal
Gear"?)

Full disclosure: I work in robotics.

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nickpinkston
Is "robotics" even a relevant market category to invest in? It seems either
too broad (factory automation, home auto, toys, etc.) to be have enough depth
of knowledge, or too narrow to provide a large enough opportunity. How large
do most robotics toys companies get?

I think a more relevant question is about agile hardware as the future of
manufacturing - which could be called an industrial revolution. Doing hardware
(whether electronics, robotics, mechatronics, or pure plastic) on the cheap.
The equipment and skills to make robotics companies are still very relevant to
all hardware.

If anyone hasn't seen the open hardware "Million Dollar Baby" Ignite video -
you can see the future of agile (not just open) hardware is being enabled
right now.

<http://vimeo.com/11407341>

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bostonpete
_Brooks also probably didn’t win over many VCs when he joked: “Having a robot
in your home is no longer a novelty–except for VCs. None of you have them. You
all have Brazilian house cleaners.”_

I've gotta believe that plenty of VCs would find this amusing.

