

Map of Botched Paramilitary Police Raids - maxwell
http://www.cato.org/raidmap

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lclarkmichalek
This would be much more interesting as a heatmap normalized for population
and/or crime. As is, it's hard to read anything much into it, as many of the
points are too tightly clustered (NY & Chicago) to tell if there is actually
any significant difference between the failed raid rates of the different
population centers.

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betterunix
The point is that paramilitary police teams are _not_ harmless. These soldiers
are being deployed to serve basic search-and-arrest warrants; their use is not
limited to emergencies or to suspects that are believed to be heavily armed
(if there were so many suspects so heavily armed, our cities would literally
be war zones). The real question is this: are paramilitary police teams
actually necessary in the tens of thousands of raids they conduct each year?

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SEJeff
Do you read the news? Parts of Chicago are basically war zones. That is why it
is the most violent city in the US. The big gang wars are out of control.
Every weekend I see how many new people were killed in the violence here.
Really sad that this isn't a solved problem in such an otherwise beautiful
city. (Disclaimer: I live in a nicer part of Chicago)

~~~
Shivetya
they truly need a system like NYC's stop and frisk. Unfortunately that is
threatened regardless of the good it has shown to do by misguided rights
activists. Chicago is a great example of PC gone wrong. The main beneficiaries
have been minorities and those who live in the "war zones".

The means to fix Chicago's problem is available, however it requires a mayor
with strength of character more concerned for the people than himself.

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threeseed
Firstly, I don't understand what is happening with HN. It's becoming a
blatantly US political site and not a particularly insightful or discerning
one.

Secondly, what is the point of this map ? For all I know there could be
millions of legitimate raids each year in which case the tens of botched ones
here would make for a statistical impressive record. Seems borderline
deceitful on their part not to state how many total raids happened each year.

~~~
akiselev
I think the first is a result of the NSA leaks. HN I think is already
extremely inclined to US politics and an issue that hits so close to home is
bound be the spark that blows the powder keg.

According to the abstract of the paper, estimates are at 40k paramilitarized
police raids PER YEAR. I agree that statistically the data is insignificant
but looking at the number of innocent deaths (1-5 per year generally), I have
an uneasy feeling that this increase in force may have hit diminishing returns
as far as safety goes and are now into the zone of increasing false positives.

~~~
cmdkeen
1 to 5 deaths for 40k raids is not at all in the realms of statistical
significance. In terms of innocent people killed by the police it strikes me
as being so far down the list as not a problem with "paramilitary" "raids".

Both of course are loaded terms. Another way to play it would be to say that
better trained and experienced officers are conducting these operations with a
very low rate of adverse outcomes. Would they be higher if the cops who
weren't on these teams were carrying out these "raids".

How many people are year are killed by emergency services vehicles? How many
are killed following other police interactions?

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akiselev
I literally said _I agree that statistically the data is insignificant_

> How many people are year are killed by emergency services vehicles? How many
> are killed following other police interactions?

You're kidding right? Is this really an acceptable form of argument? The point
isn't total number of deaths, the point is the increasing use of flak jackets,
stun grenades ("flashbangs" but don't kid yourself, they're grenades),
automatic weapons, and military counter-insurgency tactics in situations where
you can't rationally justify such actions.

And to preempt an obvious red herring: Gang shootouts, extensive drug rings,
hostage situations, and violent offenders DO JUSTIFY the use of such force.
Nonviolent offenses and other situations where there is little reason to
expect an armed suspect do not.

~~~
cmdkeen
My point is that flak jackets don't kill people, and automatic weapons don't
unless they go off. Stun grenades might if they cause a heart attack, but so
could the pressure of a police investigation. So could a speeding police car.

You presented the issue as 1-5 people a year being killed. If you agree it
isn't significant then what is the problem? Because it isn't that it causes
deaths.

If you're going to tackle perceived problems with American policing there seem
to be far better areas to address than "I don't like paramilitary raids that
don't actually have statistically meaningful adverse outcomes".

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tzs
Is there a map showing the non-botched raids? Without that for comparison, it
is hard to make anything useful out of this.

Also, note that unless you change the settings, it is showing 28 years worth
of data. If you don't notice this, you'll get the impression that botched
raids are happening all the time.

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CoachRufus87
Just think...this could happen to any one of us (here in the US, at least).
Sad.

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montecarl
So many of these stories have disputes between what the police claim to have
done and what the civilians claim. It seems that it is very difficult to
prosecute the police on these matters. Would hard evidence, such as video or
audio recordings make a difference in the chance of winning a lawsuit or
criminal conviction? Or would that evidence get destroyed or be inadmissible
in court?

In interested to know how the prevalence of always on recording devices might
impact law enforcement.

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DanBC
I wonder if anyone is doing something similar for the UK?

([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Jean_Charles_de_Menez...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Jean_Charles_de_Menezes))

Including information for Northern Ireland would be problematic.

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UVB-76
> I wonder if anyone is doing something similar for the UK?

Armed raids are comparatively rare in the UK, and when they do take place,
they are far less spectacular than in the US.

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alan_cx
Be fair, we in the UK don't have the gun issues the US has. Raiding a property
here isn't as much of a risk. Probably the same across Europe. The trick for
us is to keep it that way. To try to be kind to US law enforcement, I suspect
that part of the reason they like to be so spectacular, is an attempt at a
deterrent.

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tekromancr
Imagine the dumbest, most brutish cunt you knew in high school. After he
failed at life for half a decade, he became a cop. I think that that has more
to do with it.

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alan_cx
That honestly isnt my impression of any Brit police office I have dealt with.
Granted they do like their power, but generally, I have found them to be
mostly OK. High on the power, jobs worth, arrogant, yes, but not that dumb
and/or brutish. That said, I have not been under any sort of crowd or riot
control. So, possible they roll out the big dumb heavy wing of the police
force there.

I assume you are talking about US police? I have no experience of them. Well,
apart from watching US TV and movies!!!

~~~
tekromancr
Yes, and not all police of course. But the job does attract a certian
personality type.

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taproot
[http://xkcd.com/1138/](http://xkcd.com/1138/)

