
Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans - victorbojica
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-03/tesla-s-model-3-is-becoming-one-of-america-s-best-selling-sedans
======
dang
Personal attacks will get you banned here, regardless of how wrong someone is
or you feel they are. Please review
[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html)
and don't do this again. We've had to warn you about this before.

Your comment would have been fine with just the middle paragraph.

~~~
illumin8
Sorry, I guess I can't edit the comment after it's been flagged or moderated,
or I'd edit out all but the middle paragraph.

~~~
dang
I've edited it for you to do that (hope that's ok) and detached my comment
from
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18136721](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18136721)
so it will sink to the bottom.

~~~
illumin8
Thanks, and sorry for letting my emotions get the better of me.

------
xltk
I personally wouldn't purchase a Model 3. I rented the long range version for
a round-trip trip from San Francisco to Sacramento (about 90 miles/2 hours
each way). The main things that stood out:

\- Changing volume and airflow through the central touchscreen were much more
challenging than the physical knobs and buttons most cars have. I'd even argue
they were distracting and dangerous to use while driving. I don't believe this
was a learning curve issue. Having to accurately place your finger above a
touch screen and repeatedly hit a plus button is an inferior experience to
rotating a knob.

\- The self-driving ability has a long way to go before it is useful for
anything except cruising on the freeway. In two separate instances, the car
slowed at a stop sign down to 15mph before blowing through it (which could
have been a non-cheap ticket that went on my record if a cop were around), and
almost hit another car when two lanes merged into one.

\- The supercharging stations charge at a slower rate than advertised, and
cost only a little less to use than filling up a car with unleaded gas.

\- The door handles are difficult to use. Maybe this is a learning curve
issue, but pressing the handle in at the correct position takes more dexterity
than simply pulling on a standard handle.

The technology and presentation is impressive, but I felt the driving
experience was subpar.

~~~
ghouse
Superchargers in CA cost $0.25/kWh. The model 3 averages <300 Wh/mi, or
$0.075/mi (when charged by a CA Supercharger). Gas in CA is also expensive --
$3.64/gallon in San Jose. Assuming a comparable car to the model 3 (A BMW 335
is 32MPG, and a 540 is 29 MPG on the highway), or $0.11-0.13/mi which is
between 52 and 67% more expensive per mile that a model 3 charged with a
Supercharger.

If you charge at home, overnight, you pay about $0.125/kWh, which extends the
operating cost advantage further.

~~~
majewsky
> Gas in CA is also expensive -- $3.64/gallon in San Jose.

Tangential: I'm always baffled that Americans consider prices like this
expensive. In Germany, gas goes for €1.20-€1.50 per liter (which is
$5.22-$6.52 per gallon).

~~~
bebna
Where do you get those prices? Since months[1] it is more like 1.45-1.60€/l
($6.311-$6.964/gal) for regular petrol.

In 1.519€/l($6.611/gal) are 0.8678€/l($3.777/gal) taxes[2].

What they see as a expensive price, we only pay to the fiskus alone!

[1] [https://ich-tanke.de/statistik/](https://ich-tanke.de/statistik/)

[2] [https://service.aral.de/netto-spritpreise](https://service.aral.de/netto-
spritpreise)

~~~
majewsky
> Where do you get those prices?

From memory. I don't have a car (or a driver's license, for that matter), but
I drive by gas stations sometimes.

> What they see as a expensive price, we only pay to the fiskus alone!

I find it hard to believe that the US does not have any taxes on gas
whatsoever.

~~~
lykr0n
$0.184 per Gallon of Federal Tax. In Texas it's an additional $0.20 per
Gallon.

------
smaili
> Tesla’s competitors are feeling it. Sales of the Mercedes-Benz C-Class, the
> best-selling luxury sedan in the U.S., plunged 24 percent last month and are
> down 28 percent for the year through September.

> And it’s doing so at a higher price than other mass-market cars. The most
> expensive versions of the Model 3 are currently the most popular, with an
> average selling price approaching $60,000.

It would be very interesting if Tesla's surge in ranking would be caused more
by fleeing luxury customers (from brands like the referenced Mercedes) versus
gaining new customers.

~~~
jvehent
There is only a finite number of people willing/able to spend $60k on a
recreational vehicle.

~~~
King-Aaron
$60k is not a lot of money to spend on a car in this day and age.

~~~
davidcbc
This is an absurdly out of touch comment. The vast majority of cars sold in
the US aren't even close to $60k.

The average _new_ car is only $37k and only about 30% of car purchases are new
cars.

~~~
King-Aaron
Apologies, I'm not from the United States.

~~~
MetallicCloud
As a fellow Aussie, I still find it ludicrous that $60,000 AUD isn't much to
spend on a car. Obviously only an anecdote, but I don't know anyone who has
bought a car that even approaches that price, let alone for that to be the
norm.

~~~
King-Aaron
Did you happen to price up an SS commodore before they stopped selling them?
Or look at the price of a Landcruiser? Very expensive vehicles yet the roads
are plastered with them.

------
tyingq
That's noteworthy, but keep in mind the top 3 sellers in the US are pickup
trucks, then 4-6 are SUV models. The best selling sedan is at spot 7.

~~~
ctdonath
And Tesla is about to enter the pickup market.

~~~
loeg
They are? I have heard of the semi trucks but not smaller trucks.

~~~
natchiketa
Musk has said that it's his 'favorite next product':
[https://electrek.co/guides/tesla-pickup-
truck/](https://electrek.co/guides/tesla-pickup-truck/)

~~~
HBlix
Elon Musk says a lot of things, I’ll believe that they have a viable pickup
when it’s rolling off the assembly lines. I’m also not sure that the market
for pickups will care too much about having an EV. All in all it’s a very
different market with a different customer base than luxury sedans.

~~~
gameswithgo
more torque! highly capable AWD

~~~
greglindahl
And a quieter ride. I bet a significant % of the existing "truck" market would
be interested in these features.

------
samfisher83
Sedans in general have cratered. Everyone is back to buying SUVs and Trucks.
Its like we are going back to 1999.

~~~
partiallypro
Most people don't buy SUV's, they buy "crossovers" which pack the capacity of
an SUV but get way way better gas mileage. As for Trucks, they have improved
considerably in gas mileage as well. But the SUV is mostly false, SUVs have
bitten the dust, crossovers like Rav4, Outback, etc have taken over. Even in
luxury brands, I see tons of BMW, Mercedes and Jaguar crossovers. They look
nice.

~~~
bgorman
I'm pretty sure the Rav4 is considered a SUV. I don't think the Outback is a
crossover. Subaru's main crossover seems to be the XV.

~~~
partiallypro
Toyota lists it as a crossover
[https://www.toyota.com/crossovers/](https://www.toyota.com/crossovers/)

KBB lists the Outback, Crosstrek etc as crossovers
[https://www.kbb.com/subaru/crossovers/](https://www.kbb.com/subaru/crossovers/)

When I think SUV, I think Tahoe, Sequoia, Escalade, Suburban, etc. Compact
SUVs are SUVs in name only imo. You pretty much never see a traditional SUV on
the road anymore.

------
taf2
Anecdotal but I see more and more tesla’s On the road especially model 3s

~~~
kidsnow
In the South Bay part of the Bay Area, they are like 1 out of every 10 cars.

~~~
jd20
Driving through Cupertino neighborhoods, I've seen several homes with not one,
not two, but three(!) Tesla's in their driveway.

When I wash my Model S in the driveway, people walking by will often come up
to tell me how much they love their own Tesla's (or wanting to know how I like
mine). Never had that happen when I wash my Audi :) The Audi is even the more
expensive car.

~~~
jchb
You might already know this, but you shouldn't really be washing your car on
the driveway, especially if you aren't sure whether your drains there are
connected to the sewer pipes, rather than the storm drain. A Tesla will give
off less oil products but there is still the soap (phosphate) and rubber dust.
A car wash treats and recycles the water.

~~~
jd20
Kind of OT, but I agree phosphate pollution's a big problem and there's a lot
of measures people can take to wash their cars responsibly. I've switched to
just a bucket and low-flow pressure washer, which uses about 30x less water
than a garden hose (and even less than my shower head, and unlike my shower,
only runs when I pull the trigger). As a result, I have no run-off from the
driveway, and what little water does get used is mostly recaptured and used to
water plants. Honestly, at this point I think I use more water to shower, and
I definitely take far more showers than I wash my cars.

------
GreenPlastic
The car is unbelievably good coming from someone who used to drive entry-level
luxury sedans. It's light years beyond anything BMW, Infiniti and Lexus have
to offer.

------
threeseed
> It’s an imperfect ranking because Tesla didn’t break out sales by country,
> and the Model 3 tally included some deliveries to customers in Canada.

Seems a bit strange to base an entire article on faulty data.

~~~
alexandros
Faulty != approximate. for all reasonable estimations of the Canada deliveries
number, the title still stands.

------
cyrux004
I am guessing this will die down once they clear all the backlog

~~~
alexandros
Wait times in the US for the existing models are already low enough that
there's basically no backlog. (out of the 420k reservations they had at some
point, you can think of it as half those reservations being overseas -- not
yet tapped, and of the remaining 210k half or likely more of those are for the
35k version. They've already shipped 91k cars, pretty much only to the US and
Canada, so the US/Canada backlog for reservations is mostly new reservations.
Also, they don't yet offer a leasing option, which is how most people like to
buy cars these days.

Either the demand will die down REALLY soon, or not at all. Having seen the
effect of someone I know test driving a tesla with no intent to buy, and then
complaining about how intensely bad "regular" cars have felt for her since
then, if anything sales will grow as more cars are distributed and people's
immediate family and friends get to experience the car. In other news, 40% of
Europeans said in a recent Ipsos Mori survey that their next car will be
electric.[1]

In other words, I wouldn't hold my breath that this is going to die down any
time soon.

[disclaimer: I am a big fat tesla fanboy (if it wasn't obvious) and have
bought stock in the company, but I hope I am making the case with logic and
data and can be convinced otherwise. That said, my phone background image
looks like this:
[https://i.redd.it/lx9635tjoyf01.jpg](https://i.redd.it/lx9635tjoyf01.jpg)]

[1]:[https://www.treehugger.com/cars/europe-40-drivers-say-
next-c...](https://www.treehugger.com/cars/europe-40-drivers-say-next-car-
will-be-electric.html)

~~~
MBCook
The backlog may be down but I’m with the GP that this was probably pent-up
demand. I would expect another jump when (if) the fabled $30,000 model comes
out.

But can they keep up this level of demand for two years? Three years? I’m not
so sure.

Only time will tell.

~~~
geerlingguy
I’m guessing there is a large market of people like me. Happy with my current
middle of the road sedan, just waiting until it starts having major issues
before looking at the next car.

After test driving a leaf and model S I’ve decided there’s. I way I go for
another non-electric, the driving experience is just so much better without
the gas engine lag, transmission, noise, muck, maintenance etc.

So I’m a few years the 3 will hopefully be cheaper and on my short list of
cars to consider... maybe even used!

------
acconrad
I cannot for the life of me rationalize spending so much on a car. The $35,000
just doesn't make sense in New England, so I need to add in AWD. Then I need
to add in the autopilot because isn't that the point of owning a Tesla so you
don't have to drive your car someday? Now, _with government incentives_ , this
car is $50k.

Couldn't you grab a Rav4 Hybrid with Comma AI and basically have an electric
car with AWD for $30k less?

~~~
freerobby
> I cannot for the life of me rationalize spending so much on a car. The
> $35,000 just doesn't make sense in New England, so I need to add in AWD.
> Then I need to add in the autopilot because isn't that the point of owning a
> Tesla so you don't have to drive your car someday? Now, with government
> incentives, this car is $50k.

Nah, that's only if you're throwing in LR and a Premium Interior.

$35k + $6k for AWD + $5k for AP = $46k.

That's before any incentives or gas savings. And you're also getting an ADAS
that outperforms Comma, a huge and growing Supercharger network, and all the
OTA updates and hardware utilization to come. Skip Enhanced Autopilot software
and you're only $5k over the average new car price (before incentives!).

Tesla has built a profitable EV in a market that treats EVs as loss leaders.
The market's about to learn a hard lesson.

[1][https://mediaroom.kbb.com/2018-02-01-Average-New-Car-
Prices-...](https://mediaroom.kbb.com/2018-02-01-Average-New-Car-Prices-Rise-
Nearly-4-Percent-For-January-2018-On-Shifting-Sales-Mix-According-To-Kelley-
Blue-Book)

~~~
acconrad
Where are you seeing that? I'm designing the Model 3 right now and with AWD
and autopilot it comes to $63k before incentives and $53k after...
[https://3.tesla.com/model3/design#autopilot](https://3.tesla.com/model3/design#autopilot)

~~~
freerobby
OP is referencing the $35k/standard range model, which is expected to ship in
3-6 months. I can't figure out a way to direct link you, but look in the top
right of the page at
[https://3.tesla.com/model3/design/<YOUR](https://3.tesla.com/model3/design/<YOUR)
RN# HERE>#battery

------
devoply
why buy a sedan when you can buy a status symbol for a bit more?

~~~
r00fus
It's not just a status. Any electric vehicle of that size/speed/image would
cost that much or more.

I know, I've looked. The Model3, even LR, is a pretty good deal compared to
other EVs.

~~~
rohit2412
I guess what the comment echoed was that Tesla sell much better because of the
status. And the other EVs don't enjoy such futuristic image.

I'll add my own point that Tesla's image is very undeserved, it is only kept
by the cult of Elon musk and incessant lies about self driving technology.

~~~
askafriend
Completely wrong. Rent a Model 3 for a single day and you'll see exactly why.
The product really does speak for itself, similar to how the first iPhone
spoke for itself despite some shortcomings.

If you've tried a Model 3 for a day and you still hold the same opinion you
presented here, I concede my point - but I really think you have to experience
it to know why there is a lot of hype around the car. The hype is justified,
surprisingly so.

~~~
lozaning
Anecdotely, I canceled my day 1 preorder after going to their AWD performance
model test drive event at Telsa HQ.

The .2 seconds faster to 60 that it goes than my existing car is not worth the
tradeoff off of the horrendous steering and lack of road feedback.

------
resters
With all the negative press directed at Musk it's easy to overlook the fact
that he's done an incredible job leading Tesla through highly uncertain
waters.

Tesla's enemies are everyone from Trump to the incumbent car companies Tesla
would have already soundly beaten if they hadn't received a massive bailout.

I think based on this that Tesla's stock is still fairly significantly
undervalued. I wouldn't buy it for anything other than a 5-10 year time
horizon, during which time I think it will become obvious how superior Tesla's
approach is to traditional manufacturing approaches.

Of course, the enemies will still be able to attack through intellectual
property theft, frivolous lawsuits, etc., but Tesla is one of the giants of
modern manufacturing and design.

~~~
twblalock
> Tesla's enemies are everyone from Trump to the incumbent car companies Tesla
> would have already soundly beaten if they hadn't received a massive bailout.

Tesla also would not have survived without government money.

And the idea that Tesla would have "soundly beaten" the other car companies is
simply not possible to believe. They make and sell far more cars every year
than Tesla has made since its founding. Tesla simply does not make enough cars
to satisfy mass market demand. Tesla is not able to do this because its
manufacturing processes are not mature.

If every American wanted to buy a Tesla less than a million of them would be
able to, and the rest would have to get their cars from the incumbent car
companies. It’s hard to see how Tesla could beat the incumbents in such a
scenario.

I like Tesla, but come on, be realistic.

~~~
Latteland
Tesla got money from California (effectively) for selling no emissions credits
to other car companies. Other companies could have made evs too, they were
just against it, except Nissan which also benfitted for this with the leaf.
The 7500 tax credits for buying large battery sized evs helped Tesla too, but
people got credits for butingbmw i3, Nissan leaf, gm volt gm bolt. It served a
purpose which was to help know kick off a new market and it's being deducted
to half in 2019 based on sales over 200k cars.

Only 2 us car companies didn't go bankrupt in the recession in in 2009, Ford
and Tesla. Ford and Tesla both got govt loans to design evs, only Tesla had
finished paying theirs back.

~~~
twblalock
Tesla got almost $500 million from the Department of Energy. Yes, they paid it
back, but that is not my point. My point is that Tesla would not have survived
if it had not received that government money.

Maybe its more meritorious to accept and repay a government loan than to be
bailed out, but from the point of view of the taxpayer (and the free market)
Tesla and GM both owe their survival to taxpayer money.

~~~
Latteland
I believe it was a development loan, not a bailout. I don't understand why you
point it out as underhanded. How would you compare Tesla to Chrysler and gm
which really went bankrupt and had actual bailouts, not loans to develop new
products in unexplored technical areas. GM got a more than $20b investment
from the us government. I am glad we did save our auto industry in the us -
but Tesla wasn't a bailout as I see it.

~~~
twblalock
I didn’t say Tesla was a bailout, and I didn’t say it was underhanded. I said
that Tesla would not have survived without government money, and that is true.

~~~
resters
So you are arguing that without that capital Musk would not have been able to
raise money from the private sector?

~~~
twblalock
Yes, definitely. It would have been a very hard sell at that time.

~~~
resters
Perhaps, but if you consider that shortly after most of the automakers would
go bankrupt, Musk would then have been in a very powerful position and would
easily have been able to find private capital to help him extract the most
useful 20% of value from some of the bankrupt companies for use by Tesla.

Private investors did not want to invest in outdated infrastructure and
overburdened pension programs, which is why the government bailout was
"needed" in the first place.

But if bankruptcy had been allowed to proceed, the best bits would have gone
to the highest bidder, and Musk was well positioned to become the highest
bidder.

------
abledon
Tesla Model 3 is just the new iphone. Everyone wants the new thing. new Iphone
model, new computer model, its not exciting anymore. The THING everyone wants
now in our consumer society is the Tesla Model 3. It is a cultural icon to own
right now.

