

Money Manager's prediction of internet businesses from 12 years ago [1996] - lunaru
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/4.10/money.html

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lunaru
Some highlights:

"Pure Internet access is a commodity, and the luxury prices that ISPs are
charging will fall to $3 to $5 a month for unlimited access."

Damn, I wish I paid $5 for unlimited net access.

"Shrink-wrapped software will be replaced by problem-specific applets
delivered over the Net for a small fee or packaged with data and services."

Shrink wrapped software is still well and kicking. Web apps have not come
close to replacing desktop apps, though business models like SaaS are a start.

"The proprietary Internet-access model is even worse. The Microsoft Network
abandoned its proprietary software soon after the network launched, Prodigy
followed, then CompuServe threw in the towel. America Online has to be next."

Good call.

"You may pay 25 cents to use the applet online; your Internet service provider
will itemize those quarters in a monthly bill. (AT&AMPT is pretty good at
this.) For the moment it would be too speculative to even estimate the size of
this market, but I think it will provide numerous opportunities as we approach
the millennium."

Nope, we've yet to see micropayments take off...

