
iCloud’s Real Purpose is to Kill Windows - Deprecated
http://www.cringely.com/2011/06/iclouds-real-purpose-is-to-kill-windows/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ICringely+%28I%2C+Cringely%29
======
programminggeek
iCloud is a great idea, so is Google Apps, so is Office 365. None are designed
to "kill Windows".

iCloud's real purpose is to sell more Apple hardware, not kill Windows.
Hurting Windows sales would simply be a side effect.

It's a smart move to put iPads and iPhones on equal footing as the Mac in that
regard. If your docs, pictures, apps, and music are all on iCloud, your
computers become disposable digital devices. Want a new one? Buy it, all your
files are already there waiting for you.

The disposable digital device is a huge idea. Google, Apple, Amazon, and HP
all benefit hugely from disposable devices because they all profit hugely from
the mass distribution and churn of them. Mobile has a faster consumer turnover
than PC's.

For example, my parents have had the same desktop computer running Windows XP
since um, 2004 or so I think. Before that they bought a computer in 1995. Most
people get a new phone every 1-2 years.

So, upgrade once every 5-10 years or every 2? Which do you think makes Apple
more money?

If all your files magically move between devices, and the devices keep getting
cheaper, people will naturally upgrade faster. This hurts the Windows monopoly
for sure, but the point is not to kill Windows. The point is to increase their
own lock-in and device sell rates.

Selling more devices increases profits. That's the point.

~~~
spenrose
Upvoted b/c I think your rejection of Cringely is right, but the reason is
different. Jobs/Apple are not in this for the money. They simply believe that
iOS + cloud is a better way to compute.

~~~
SoftwareMaven
Your comment feels like it is giving Jobs and Apple a bit more altruism than I
think they deserve. They are absolutely in it for the money, but I think you
are also right that they see this as a better way of computing: a way that can
make computing better and easier for many people (who, in turn will give Apple
more money).

It is a win-win for Aplle and the consumer, which is a great place for a
company to be.

~~~
lukifer
It's also true that even if you ascribe absolute altruism to Jobs and all the
other stakeholders at Apple (which is a big leap), large revenues fuel their
ability to do more R&D, take big risks, drive down costs to increase adoption
of their cool tech, etc.

------
Total_Meltdown
I think we need to realize that PCs (laptops or desktops) and mobile devices
(tablets and mobile phones) are good at different things, and going forward
will be used for different things. For example, I'm sure everyone (especially
on this site) has noticed that software development is kind of a big thing. I
don't see any indication that I'll be developing any software on a mobile
device any time soon (especially not an iOS device, as far as I know running
user-written code is still against the App Store TOS).

As for the "three years" projection, I'm not sure what the article is saying.
Our (mobile) data will be in the cloud within three years? Probably. That
Apple will kill Microsoft in three years? Absolutely not. No way. Don't
underestimate the power of inertia. Even if Apple manages to entirely kill
Microsoft's consumer market share (unlikely) they can survive off enterprise
customers just fine. I mean, what do you use on a Mac to compose documents?
Word. Are there any others? (I don't have a Mac, so feel free to correct me if
I'm mistaken.)

I don't think PCs are going anywhere. People will always need to get serious
work done, and larger systems will always be better at that than smaller
systems of the same era, if only for the sheer amount of numbers they can
crunch. Mobiles are great products with a tremendous amount of utility, but
they're complements, not substitutes.

~~~
TomOfTTB
Cringely is in the business of trying to look prophetic so he makes wild
predictions like this to get attention. I don't think anyone, Apple included,
things the Personal Computer is going anywhere for the very reasons you laid
out above. Even with a wireless keyboard and a Monitor hooked up the iPad
isn't sufficient for any serious writing, coding, photo editing, etc... You
still need a PC for that.

I think Apple laid out its position very clearly yesterday. The PC isn't going
away it's just being demoted. It isn't t he center of your digital universe
anymore. But that doesn't mean it isn't useful.

~~~
MaysonL
_Cringely is in the business of trying to look prophetic so he makes wild
predictions like this to get attention._

Yeah, but in the long run, he may be _right_. Has peak Windows occurred? It's
not quite clear, but it may have, with the total PC business going at -1% yoy.
And when Windows/Office sales start showing big year over year declines,
Microsoft will be hurting very badly, if they haven't developed some other
revenue source.

~~~
recoiledsnake
Peak Windows? Huh? Noy even close.

The sales rate has reduced due to many reasons unrelated to Apple, saturation
is high, repalcement rate is low because they are fast enough for many years
etc. etc.

Measuring installed base makes more sense than pure sales. So the PC business
going at -1% yoy is not really a good metric. MS is still making money hand
over fist, look at their financials.

------
hnsmurf
I don't get it. Most of what iCloud does is already being done on smartphones
for free. Gmail and Exchange Server both already sync contacts, calendars, and
email quite nicely across devices. I haven't had to manually transfer any of
that to a new smartphone since long before there was an iPhone.

The music thing is nice too, but it's either a paid solution or an incomplete
one. Apple once released a stat that only 10% of the music on iPods comes from
iTunes (most of the rest is either pirated or ripped CDs).

~~~
jherdman
The key differentiating factor is that the iCloud heralds an era wherein _all_
of your data is decentralized, all of the time, and that this is the default
for _all_ users, on _all_ Apple devices, all of the time.

~~~
bxr
>iCloud heralds an era wherein all of your data is decentralized

You are correct, for all definitions of "decentralized" that are "rigidly
centralized, almost appearing decentralized because centralization is so far
outside your control"

~~~
Angostura
Disagree. The key point with iCloud is that the primary storage for all your
data is on the _device_ the Cloud is used in the main simply for syncing and
messaging.

That's why I like the Apple vision - it leaves my data with me. It doesn't
lock it up in a cloud somewhere.

------
zipdog
I question whether owning someone's data is really as valuable to cloud
providers as the article assumes. Not that data isn't valuable, but if it
becomes critically valuable and the companies refused to allow users to
reclaim it to move to another service, I imagine a law would fix the problem.

Facebook has recognised that it isn't the data per-se that is so valuable, but
the connections and relationships that are between that data and others.. ie
the way that your data is able to interact with other people's data. The way
to lock people in is when a person's data alone is insufficient for them.

A music collection is just a set of licenses for songs. If people have only
licensed the songs on a particular service or device they might find it
painful to leave but if that pain is less than the cost of maintaining the
service then they will leave. But a music community built around song
collections would be impossible to leave, unless everyone did at once, or the
person was willing to leave the community itself (much harder to replace than
songs).

~~~
DanI-S
This definitely seems true - which is interesting, since Apple and Google have
both been floundering around unsuccessfully trying to create their own
community experiences.

Facebook & co are really the prize here - whichever OS company can integrate
the most deeply with existing social networks is going to come out on top. If
either one of them can let go of the dream of having their own social network,
they'll be able to move faster and get the edge.

I suspect that Google are more attached to that dream than Apple. However,
they're arguably more capable of pulling it off.

------
dagar
"Having been shown the way by Apple, I expect Google to shortly do the same
thing, adding automated backup, synchronization and migration to Android and
Chrome."

Doesn't my android phone already do this?

~~~
mdwrigh2
Yeah, and so does chrome (well, it can sync passwords, bookmarks, etc.)

I'm not sure what else the author wants Android and Chrome to sync.
Application data? That's up to the authors of the application, just the same
as it is with iCloud.

~~~
MatthewPhillips
I want to meet the web developer that isn't already "syncing" data on the
server vs. the client.

------
umtrey
People are worried about the cloud-killing PR mistake or security breach that
will cripple the efforts to get data into these controlled data centers, so
this makes perfect sense. Start the focus with something everyone will know:
Music. If someone breaks into your music collection... oh no? I was keeping my
Duran Duran passion a secret.

Once this catches on, any mistake won't be a crippling one or a business-
critical error, just a little frustrating. Gradually promote the other cloud
offerings afterward, even if they have been there the whole time. Tied in with
Lion's auto-versioning options, this just means everything naturally goes to
the cloud, and no one will ever think of it again.

As stated, this isn't to kill Windows, this is to kill the pain of buying more
devices. This is the first step to build that confidence and show it off in
something people will have fun with.

~~~
danieldk
Indeed. To make your point more explicit: My girlfriend has my old iPhone 3G.
Given that iCloud will not be supported on the 3G, she will have to buy a new
phone once the MobileMe subscription runs out, to continue to use the handy
synchronization features of MobileMe.

Now, it's just calendars and contacts, but as documents, "App state", etc.
moves into iCloud, people will feel necessary to update to the latest device
more often to be able to use iCloud in its fullest.

Every year you do not upgrade your device, you will miss out on more and more
improvements, until your device becomes unsupported (the iPhone 3G was
obsoleted well within 2.5 years).

iCloud and comparable offerings will make digital life easier for many people.
But it will also be _a lot_ harder to get out of the vendor grip. People will
dislike these companies as much as they disliked Microsoft, but will be
equally tied to their products.

~~~
flatulent1
MobileMe accounts are being extended to a year from now for free, before the
service is shut off.

If the phone no longer meets her needs at that time, she can sell it to help
fund a new one (or perhaps you will have yet another leftover from another
upgrade of yours). Even an old iPhone can still be used as an iPod, to play
games on, and for some WiFi net activities. Old Apple phones have better
resale value than any others I've seen.

It sounds like you're complaining about problems that are more hypothetical
than real. If you really think that many users are being placed in a bad
position, think of it as an opportunity to rescue them with some kind of great
app / service that you create. Also, Steve said something yesterday about some
open iCloud APIs.

~~~
CJefferson
We couldn't possibly help those users, because the MobileMe is built deeply
into the system apps. On Android (and I don't want to sound like a fanboy too
much here, although I'm sure I do), we could drop in a replacement calendar
and email app to replace the system ones. On iPhone, that's a no go.

------
Stormbringer
This title is a classic example of what is wrong with tech reporting.

Every new thing is supposed to be a 'killer' of something else. Whether that
be "iPod killer", "iPhone killer", "Windows killer", or, $Deity forbid: "linux
killer".

This is not to say that things don't change, just that the sensationalist
nature of reporting is unhelpful.

I suggest a new benchmark: the techno-journalism killer. Each time some
techno-journalist describes something as a killer they lose a point. If they
are right within 1 year, they get 10 points. Within 2 years, 6 points. Within
3 years, 3 points, and within 4 years 1 point.

If the journalist accumulates enough negative points (-10 ??), they themselves
get 'killed' (ie deprecated, made obsolescent, removed from the news streams
and RSS feeds etc).

After all, if they're wrong that much, they don't deserve our attention.

------
super_mario
Seriously, UNIX guys have had this for decades. Ever heard of keeping your
user directory and profile on the network server. So when you walk around the
office and log into different machines your HOME "travels" with you.

The network server now just lives on a server outside your organization/home
what ever. The network speed now becomes the biggest limitation, and there are
valid concerns with security as well.

~~~
rimantas
Seriously, OS X is UNIX, I doubt you told the news to them.

~~~
super_mario
I'm perfectly aware of that. I use OS X as my primary OS. My point is that who
ever is saying that iCloud is all about killing Windows is missing the point
completely, first because the technology not that new or amazing, and second
if it does anything to Windows user base it's doing it indirectly and not as
some planned consequence.

------
raimondious
What does iCloud have to do with Windows? It's not explained anywhere in the
article. The purpose of iCloud is its utility, platform lock-in, and the
"cloud" checkbox ticked off in every major Apple product. All of those things
will probably kill Windows a little bit, but that's not necessarily the main
purpose. If anything, it's positioned against Google.

~~~
rimantas
Platform lock-in is a bit gray. They were talking that for Windows they would
use Pictures (or is it MyPictures) folder instead of iPhoto. That probably
means that if you are a Windows user but own an iPhone you'll still get iCloud
service.

------
varunsrin
_Having been shown the way by Apple, I expect Google to shortly do the same
thing, adding automated backup, synchronization and migration to Android and
Chrome_

Hmm? Google already does most of this stuff on Android, though there are a few
small features like sync of app data that are currently missing

 _Windows 8 not due until 2013_

To the best of my knowledge, no date has been set for Windows 8

 _Jobs is going to sacrifice the Macintosh in order to kill Windows_

No he's not - the Mac (particularly laptops) will continue to grow, as it has
been over the past year. This is because, as always, there will be a
percentage of the market that still needs a desktop-style computer for getting
real work done. That percentage isn't going anywhere soon, though they may
_also_ buy an iPad / tablet style device.

You can call it post-PC all you want, but the reality is people still need
desktops for getting some tasks done and that is likely to be true at least
for a few more years.

~~~
neovive
Definitely agree that Mac's and desktops are not going away anytime soon. For
those that need to create and maintain content, the power of the
laptop/desktop is still needed. However, the ease of use of tablets and
smartphones, combined with a service such as iCloud, are great for consumers
that don't need the power or cost of a laptop/desktop.

------
brisance
There is no need for Apple to "kill" Microsoft. Ballmer himself seems to be
doing a good job for the last 10 years since Gates left. And with the recent
over-priced acquisition of Skype, seems well on the way to killing his own
company.

iCloud is a defensive play. It's to prevent Facebook and Google from getting
at Apple users' data. At the same time it's boosting Twitter's star. Apple's
MO is to be in control of its own destiny, so I wouldn't be surprised if Dave
Winer was right and Apple already has some investment in Twitter, considering
how tightly integrated it is with iOS 5.

------
motters
I don't want the hub of my digital life moving to the cloud, where it can be
data mined, surveilled, decompiled, accidentally erased, subject to arbitrary
subscription ransoms or sold to anyone who will pay.

------
baconner
Remember the big stink about being able to bring your us cellphone number with
you to a new provider? The new era of consumer cloud data looks like its going
to take customer lock in to new heights. IMO it's time to start rallying for a
universal right to export.

~~~
dagar
Personally, I'd much rather choose google's cloud for this reason.
<http://www.dataliberation.org/>

------
CJefferson
Interestingly, for me the iCloud is the last straw to make me leave Mac.

I recently bought an Android phone, and I've found that Apple really hates co-
operating with anything which isn't another Apple product. I could get a new
iPhone, but I don't want to tie myself so I forever after have to buy mini
macs, macbooks, iphones and ipads if I want to be able to get at my existing
data.

Google is much better in this respect, I can get to my google data equally
well from all phones and all OSes.

~~~
JayWilmont
In the keynote they mentioned photos being kept updated on a Windows machine
as well. iCloud subtracts zero functionality from any device (though it does
change MobileMe, that doesn't seem to be your issue). Once a document is on
your machine, you can turn off iCloud and that document will persist on your
computer/iPhone/whatever unmolested just like it did pre-iCloud.

What about iCloud (which you can turn off if you want) that upsets you so?

~~~
CJefferson
Experience tells me that Apple will integrate iCloud deeply into all their Mac
OS X applications, and many 3rd party apps will use iCloud by default, and not
offer alternative options (such as Dropbox).

Will I be able to write apps for Android which can access data stored in the
iCloud? I will be very, very surprised if we can. Similar to how it is very
difficult, verging on impossible, to sync my Android phone with iTunes.

Apple clearly do not want their systems to integrate nicely with others,
except where they feel they really have to. The iTunes / Blackberry problems
from a few years ago proved to me that Apple will do anything it takes to stop
interoperability, except where they want it.

------
willheim
Erm... no. Apple announcing iCloud is kinda like Palm announcing WebOS a
couple of years ago, streaming music from LastFM (though iCloud doesn't
stream), getting your pics up and down from Flickr, and working on
GDocs/Gmail/GCal/Office365.

Windows is an OS. iOS is an OS. Mac OSX is an OS. The iCloud service is
designed to allow you to shuffle from one to the other seamlessly but not to
replace those machines altogether. Kinda like using dropbox.

Now, is the OS becoming less important in comparison to the services
available? Absolutely. Not for everyone but for the average user it certainly
is. Will iCloud suceed? Surely it will, but only for those who wish to be tied
into Apple products (unless I am mistaken and you will be able to share iCloud
uploads with Android or WP devices).

------
code_duck
I see the killing of Windows is a natural consequence of the flow of
technology. In producing new products that match where the world is going,
Apple is part of killing Windows, just like the rest of us. To say 'killing
Windows' it's the 'purpose' of a given Apple product is absurd, somewhat like
saying the point of driving to work in the morning is to pass a certain
traffic light.

------
Alg0r1thm
"Some will say this is unlikely because of Microsoft’s grip on enterprise
sales, but consumers have been leading the IT market for the last decade and
the mobile transition will only accelerate this trend."

The mobile transition is a fallacy in my opinion. There is no transition; it
is more a compliment to real computing solutions. Do you think large business
are going to sacrifice control of their data to a "cloud" rather than their
own datacenters and be held hostage to a recurring fee? Or how would you like
your employees to be doing spreadsheets and documents on a tablet's virtual
keyboard?

While I do believe many consumer needs can be met by mobile tech, the PC will
continue to exist for a lot longer than three years simply because of the
utility of conventional design. No matter how hard you try, three years from
now Windows will still be alive and ingrained into the government and business
world for at least three more years after that.

~~~
ak217
> Do you think large business are going to sacrifice control of their data to
> a "cloud" rather than their own datacenters and be held hostage to a
> recurring fee?

Yes. They already pay the recurring fee to their IT department.

Big companies use tons of outside services already. There is no substantive
difference between that and moving more of their software and data to a
standardized third-party datacenter (which is what the cloud is).

------
rmason
Right now people are speculating with incomplete information. Still embraced
by the famous Jobs reality distortion field. If this all comes to pass then
there will be a huge opportunity for the first person who can get your data
back from either the iCloud or the gCloud.

------
atlei
Step 1: Get all Mac/iPhone/iPad users to use the iCloud

Step 2: Integrate API (with access to your data) and a MacCloud Store

Now, it doesn't matter if you purchase software using your iPhone/iPad, Mac or
the cloud; Apple will get 30% of _all_ purchases anyway. Brilliant !

------
ansy
It's all about ubiquitous computing versus desktop computing. Microsoft's
manifest destiny was having a [Microsoft] computer on every desk. Its whole
existence is built around achieving and capitalizing on that vision.

We are entering the age of ubiquitous computing. Computers everywhere. Not
just for every person or every pocket. But multiple computers for every person
for every function that can be augmented.

Apple gets it. Google gets it. Microsoft merely looks like it understands
because it is desperately copying everyone else. But really Microsoft is lost.
So utterly lost now that we're no longer in the age of desktop computing.

~~~
falcolas
I'm not sure I agree. The Microsoft Kin showed this kind of forethought, but
it was perhaps a bit too early, with a bit too lean-featured a phone.

If they had continued the kin-like ubiquity with the Windows 7 phone, and
merged that ubiquity with Windows 7 itself, I think it would be a much
stronger competitor than it is now; perhaps even pushing Apple and Google on
the defensive.

~~~
ansy
First of all, Kin is a rebrand of the Danger Sidekick business Microsoft
bought. All those social media features are inherited from the Sidekick, a
product that "got it." A founder of Danger, Andy Rubin, went on to start
Android which got acquired by Google and we all know the rest of that story.

Who knows why Microsoft bought Danger. "Phones are looking hot, better buy
something." Then proceed to screw it up royally by rewriting everything from
scratch on top of Windows CE wasting the entire investment.

Yeah, I don't think Kin is a good example of how Microsoft gets it.

------
tomelders
This article is the ramblings of a mad man.

------
rmc
_Having been shown the way by Apple, I expect Google to shortly do the same
thing, adding automated backup, synchronization and migration to Android and
Chrome._

Eh, this is already happening. You can use an Android phone entirely without
needing to use a desktop machine. You install apps over the air, no desktop
needed. You register the phone over the air, no desktop needed. Your contacts
and stuff are synced over the air, no desktop required.

------
mark_l_watson
"""And what happens once all our data is in that iCloud, is there any easy way
to get it back out? Nope. It’s in there forever and we are captive customers —
trapped more completely than Microsoft ever imagined."""

I don't agree with this: Google certainly makes it really easy to get data out
of Google Docs, GMail, etc. Isn't it reasonable to also expect Apple to
provide local backup facilities?

------
lukeschlather
>Here is the money line from Jobs yesterday: “We’re going to demote the PC and
the Mac to just be a device – just like an iPad, an iPhone or an iPod Touch.
We’re going to move the hub of your digital life to the cloud.”

Interesting that devices are only provided by Microsoft and Apple. Somehow I
don't see that as a very diffuse cloud. (And certainly not one that will kill
Microsoft devices.)

------
dhughes
I wonder if deals will be made in the future between Apple, MS, Google and
large Internet providers to throttle the competition.

Or is Google planning long term by buying up dark fiber to make sure its Doc
and Apps are accessible when its competitors are not?

------
Blokkd
I think that ICloud more of an uphill battle for companies like dropbox or the
google document application as opposed to Microsoft.

------
hernan7
Cringely: "consumers have been leading the IT market for the last decade"

More like for the last 3 decades (the IBM PC came out in 1981).

------
KeyBoardG
This post is an example of how a sensational title can game the HackerNews up-
vote system.

------
mixmastamyk
RXC's got a good point here, of course he takes it way too far in link-baity
fashion.

------
SoftwareMaven
iCloud and the demotion of the desktop makes me wonder if we will see a
version of OS X that doesn't require a Mac to run. Apple is in such an
interesting place at the intersection of software and hardware.

------
chrisjsmith
I think there are too many PC's running windows available at a low price point
to make this argument even worth considering. You can get laptops for less
than the price of an iPod touch.

Add to that, Windows Live's offerings such as Mesh, Hotmail (with Windows Live
Mail client), SkyDrive and Office home and student edition are actually really
good despite them not getting as much press coverage.

People only talk about stuff when they are directly marketed at, are hyped or
are unhappy. If they are happy, it rarely gets a mention. There might just be
a lot of happy Windows users ambling past the Apple Store without even looking
(or understanding).

~~~
coliveira
There is a difference between happy and comfortable. Most people using Windows
are just comfortable enough not to make the effort to move to another
platform. A lot of tech people are just like that (the ones that are not
passionate about new Apple machines). On the other hand, these are the people
that have less weight on the decisions of new users...

~~~
loso
I use Windows 7 and I am happy with it. There are a lot of people in tech who
are happy with it. I have switched platforms several times over the years but
I always end up back at Windows. People who use Windows are only using it
because they are "comfortable" is a very big assumption.

~~~
RexRollman
I currently own a PC running Windows 7 and I really enjoy using it. For the
most part, Mac OS X and Windows computers can both perform the same tasks, so
it really comes down to user preference.

Having used both Windows and Mac OS X, it is funny the little things you miss
from one or the other. For example, on Mac OS X, I really missed Foobar2000 (I
simply detest iTunes) and Exact Audio Copy. On Windows, I lament that there
doesn't seem to be any equivalent to Filemaker's Bento.

In the end, I feel that we need to stop acting like for Windows or Mac OS X to
succeed, someone has to fail. There are enough users in this world for both of
them (as well as Linux and BSD).

~~~
chrisjsmith
Your last paragraph outlines everything perfectly. It's nice to see a comment
along the lines of "the world is big enough for all of us".

Regarding Bento, Visual Studio Lightswitch might just cut it when it goes RTM:
<http://www.microsoft.com/visualstudio/en-us/lightswitch>

------
georgieporgie
What a load of inflammatory hogwash. iPhone/iPod/iPad + 'Cloud' is so far
removed from Microsoft's core market, I can't even imagine how one would come
to this conclusion.

As for consumer trends leading corporate trends, I guess that means that in
five years we'll all be employed as {whatever}ville click-slaves on Facebook.

~~~
cwp
Speaking of inflammatory hogwash...

~~~
georgieporgie
A valid criticism, I admit. :-)

------
mtw
how are you going to run a good game on Mac?

~~~
Total_Meltdown
Steam.

~~~
blhack
Steam has nothing to do with running games on a mac, it's just a storefront
for downloading them.

~~~
JonnieCache
Meltdown is pointing out the fact that there are many, many good games
available for the mac. To run good games on the mac, one simply has to install
them, with steam being one of the best ways. It was a stupid question.

Anyway, a more technically accurate answer would've been "cider," but I am
loathe to promote such an unsatisfactory compromise ;)

~~~
Total_Meltdown
Right. I mean, I'm not the biggest Apple fan, but in the interest of fairness
I thought it was worth pointing out that gaming isn't as much of an anti-mac
argument as it used to be, which is what the mtw seemed to be implying.

~~~
rimantas
I am glad one-button mouse is not mentioned any more. Or maybe it's because
there are no buttons on Apples' latest mice…

