
Pick a number from 1 to 10 - alecperkins
http://nfrom1to10.appspot.com/
======
alecperkins
Pick a number, then read, please.

The goal at first was to just see what numbers people gravitate toward. I've
heard lots of conjecture about how people pick 7 or 3 or 4 more than others,
and for a variety of reasons, but had a hard time finding actual demonstration
of this. Then, while implementing a choosing system, the problem became: how
do you present the information so as not to bias it? This is why there are
four different ways of picking. There are also a couple other metrics being
measured, including a difference in phrasing (Pick a number… vs Pick a random
number…) which may be interesting.

Apologies for any bugs or general wonkiness. The whole thing was a ~2 hour
impulse project.

PS: The data will absolutely be shared! Just need time to do a breakdown of
all the different permutations.

~~~
DanI-S
Interesting idea, but the slider may not be a great interface. It stops the
experiment being purely about numbers - I found I picked '5' because it was
close to being nice and symmetrical.

~~~
itgoon
I think that is a good datapoint, myself. If there is a predisposition for
people to choose "5" under those circumstances, we will have learned
something.

~~~
uxp
This would be a fantastic app to run A/B -like testing on to determine whether
say a circular "picker" gives different results than a horizontal "picker".
You could even tighten it down to see if a random distribution of numbers
between 1 and 10 gives different results than a ordered distribution.

It fits the model perfectly and, at least to my perspective, very clearly.

Edit: Doh. Looks like you're doing just that.

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oniTony
I was going to pick 4, but then realized that 4 has been my default "random"
number, ever since <http://xkcd.com/221/>

~~~
scotty79
Awww. I was going to pick seven but I thought it's too meaningfull so I
changed it to first meningless number that came to my mind. Namely 4.

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terhechte
I also chose 7. Human Random Distribution is probably not very random. I hope
that he'll release the data.

~~~
mikeryan
I was leaning towards 7 then thought "everyone chooses 7" and went with 9.

~~~
eneveu
There is actually a "mind trick" where you make someone choose a number
between 1 and 4, guess it is 3, then make them choose a number between 1 and
10, and guess it is 7. It works, because there is a statistical bias toward
these numbers, but the way you do the trick is also important (the way you
gesture with your hands primes the person to answer with these numbers).

I've always loved such mind tricks, and I have done this one quite a few
times. Before discovering HN, I used to go out a lot, and, when talking to
cute girls, I've done this "trick" many times for giggles. Some girls really
believed I was a psychic when I got it right :)

Funnily enough, knowing about this trick and the "statistical preference" for
the number 7 _made_ me choose 7 in this experiment, without thinking twice
about it. I realized this afterward...

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teuobk
An interesting extension of this could be to add a poll here on HN asking,
"Which number did you pick?" and then comparing the poll results to the actual
results.

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ot
Are you trying to estimate the bias depending on the type of selector used
(slider, input, options, ...)?

Very interesting concept :)

EDIT, forgot to add: if this is the case, have you thought of storing the type
of selector in a cookie, so that refreshing the page gives always the same
type?

~~~
alecperkins
Yeah, I considered a more involved way of choosing the interfaces to present —
the server attempts to even out the distribution of interfaces, use cookies to
limit, etc — but I also just really wanted to get this made in a couple hours.
The current implementation is about as simple as it gets.

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Bolyuba
Did it twice before reading comments. 7 and than 3. Have no idea why. My wife
just picked 7... Scary

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steipete
There are faster ways to provide data for /dev/random...

~~~
wladimir
He wants a "human" random distribution, not an uniform one. To see what
numbers are picked most of the time.

~~~
joezydeco
The source shows he's also timing the pick, which I think is probably the more
important dependent variable here. Doesn't matter what number you chose - it's
how long it took you to find it, click it, and hit submit.

~~~
alecperkins
Indeed. The goal there is to see if people think about the choice, then second
guess it before actually submitting.

Edit: Quickly skimming through the database, it also reveals "tab" loaders who
open up a bunch of tabs and let them sit. (It couldn't possibly have taken
someone 300s to make a decision!) Not the goal, and it does skew the data, but
still interesting.

~~~
recoiledsnake
Don't use the data for timing purposes, that's more than, say 40 seconds?

~~~
joezydeco
How about not starting the timer until you see mouse activity on the page?

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necro
Based on that interface I would predict...

middle number: for the graphical choices as it's common/easier to get a valid
first click in the middle of the slider.

high number: for the key entry as if most people are right handed it's easier
to get to the high numbers instead of going across the keyboard.

all that is predicated on the fact that people are lazy instead of random when
using this.

~~~
vidyesh
On Refreshing, it changes the interface, every time you get a different input
method. I guess its that way so as to avoid being biased over any number by
default.

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joejohnson
It might be biasing it's results by having it set to one by default...

~~~
alecperkins
The other methods don't have a default. Sliders don't really present a good
way of doing a "non-choice" default. I decided to leave it fixed at 1 to start
to see if that particular method skews because of the default. (Not exactly
precise and thorough, unfortunately. There could be more metrics, like
starting position, but I wanted to keep it simple so I could get it up and
running quickly.)

~~~
jedberg
Your slider could have a * at each end and one in the middle, and have it
start randomly on one of the 3 stars, but make them unselectable.

~~~
alecperkins
Good idea! The next iteration will try this.

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rgbrgb
Excellent. Now give us the data!

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niketdesai
I am interested in finding out how many people decided not to choose a number
at all, and if that fact could help mitigate the experiment's inherent bias.

As for people making multiple entries into the experiment, a simple IP filter
could help reduce overall error.

I think it would be neat to offer an option to not choose a number, but rather
a number to help offset selector's bias (in participating in the number
choosing experiment knowingly). It's similar to the multiple choosing UIs.

Nonetheless, I can only appreciate simple things like this that lead to a
spirited and educated read.

Cheers and can't wait to see "final" results and accompanying analysis.

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clvv
Interesting project. I'm looking forward to see the results. This reminds me
some of the mental algorithms I was thinking about: How do you generate a
random number without electronic devices? How do you generate a random
permutation without electronic devices? How do you generate a hash without
electronic devices? How do you do the above most efficiently? How about
without any pen, pencil or paper?

It will be cool if you can master mental cryptography.

------
alecperkins
I posted a graph with the basic distribution on the results page (just
hardcoded for the moment):

<http://nfrom1to10.appspot.com/results/>

A more in depth breakdown is coming. The number of responses has been far, far
beyond what I expected — several orders of magnitude more. Once I get together
a good way to efficiently track and display the graphs, I'll make them live.

------
roryokane
Upon being shown a circle and asked to pick a random number, I thought for a
bit and realized that no matter what I picked I wouldn't believe I had chosen
it randomly. Then I wrote a one-line script to generate a random number from 1
to 10 and I put its output as my answer. Perhaps this defeated the purpose of
the site, but I find it so hard to choose when I know my response is being
measured.

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Tichy
Can't wait to hear how many people picked 10 (as I did). If it hadn't been for
science, I would probably have picked 7 like everybody else.

Once I thought it would be good to play the numbers "1 2 3 4 5 6" in the
lottery because they are as likely as other numbers, and I thought people
would not pick them. Turns out lots of people play "1 2 3 4 5 6".

~~~
alanfalcon
In fact the only advantage you can have in the lottery is of decreasing the
chances of hitting a winning number that was also chosen by someone else and
thus having to split the Jackpot. Many people let the computer choose, which
helps limit duplicates, but if you want to choose numbers then be sure to
select numbers over 31. Many people select important dates and so don't have
any "lucky numbers" over 31.

That said, if you really want to increase your return for playing the lottery,
sticking your money in a cookie jar is a far better investment, provided you
already ate all the cookies in the jar.

~~~
Tichy
I know - haven't played in ages, either, but sometimes just for fun it seems
OK. In that case it should be considered more of an entertainment than an
investment.

As for numbers above 31 - of course it only works as long as not many people
realize they should pick numbers above 31. In the long run I suppose random
numbers are the best bet.

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Natsu
I was going to pick 7.1 until I found out that he was prepared for pedantry
and restricted the set to natural numbers.

------
ilitirit
Here's another test: Ask the user to pick a number from 1 to 10 but randomize
the order of the numbers each time.

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davidjagoe
Brilliant idea, but haven't you built in bias by unblinding the experiment? I
followed the link, got one implementation and keyed in '5'. Then I read your
write-up and realised that there are more implementations, reloaded the page
and thought deeply about the number I would/should choose on the slider.

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coprolog
yesterday i was improving my excel skills about statistics, instead of use the
random funcion i thought to ask a number from 1 to 10 to some friend and see
the histogram. just after some question i was surprised about the results and
so i asked more people. up to now i asked 24 people(46 number in total,the
first 2 was just one question), i also asked a second number after recived the
first. my result are: that 7 win with 31% of answer followed by 5 with 17% the
last are 10 (zero answer), 1 with 1 answer and 2 and 6 with 2 answer each. you
have to note that 83% say a odd number as a first one.noone told me a number
that wasnt integer. whats going on? the majority of people was italian, some
spanish and some german.Guido

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solipsist
After you've entered your unbiased data, make sure to refresh the page and see
what else you could have been confronted with. You'll notice the different
variables in the experiment - just make sure to do this _after_ in order for
it to not influence your decision.

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mcorrientes
Even if people have to pick a number from 1 to 20, 7 would be the second most
chosen one.

[http://scienceblogs.com/cognitivedaily/2007/02/is_17_the_mos...](http://scienceblogs.com/cognitivedaily/2007/02/is_17_the_most_random_number.php)

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robryan
I'd imagine 7 would be less popular or people that have previously heard of a
bias towards 7, would be hard to have a test group though that has never heard
anything at all about a bias. It's still the highest so far in this experiment
though.

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protomyth
I would imagine that if you did this survey in a crowd of sports fans, you
would get a different distribution based on town or player followed. Plus, if
I remember right 7 and 4 and not terribly lucky numbers in China.

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lucasjung
I picked 6 because it was closest to my cursor when the row of numbers popped
up.

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reidab
I'm curious to know if the typing prompt scores fewer 10's because of
increased typing effort and if the hover-to-reveal circle gets more centrally-
located numbers due to Fitt's law

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Vivtek
I swiped the mouse quickly, ended up at 5, and managed to resist the
temptation to change it to something "more random".

How many people leave it at 1? This is kinda neat.

Also, it was nice of science to thank me.

~~~
alecperkins
Were you asked to "Pick a number…" or "Pick a random number…"? One of the
metrics is the phrasing of the question.

~~~
Vivtek
I _think_ it said "pick a random number", but honestly, I didn't read it as
closely as I'd read the headline here.

So I don't know.

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frooxie
I picked 7, because that's what I expected other people to gravitate to, and I
wanted to see if you had some fun response if I picked the most common
alternative. :P

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tommi
I chose 7 with slider preset at 1. Didn't want to leave it at 1 and throwing
the slider "left" it there.

Referrer might be interesting information. Do geeks behave differently etc.

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BasDirks
I picked 8 because I could not find a reason for picking 8.

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Andrenid
I picked 6 purely because it's in the middle of my keyboard. I don't think
"type a random number" is the same as "think of or say a random number"...

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WingForward
What is the point of the asterisk at the end of the request?

Oh, and something about the page with the circle on it prevents my browser
from reloading.

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CallMeV
I accidentally chose my number before I could do more than deliberate on
whether to pick that number or go for another one.

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mailarchis
There is an interesting observation. Try selecting a random number multiple
times with page refresh. The ui keeps changing.

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d2zo
Hmm, might be interesting to see the results of numbers presented in a ring,
equidistant from the cursor...

~~~
alanfalcon
As long as you rotate the starting positions of the numbers on the ring and
track both the chosen number and the cardinal position of their chosen number
on their board. Maybe people are biased to numbers falling at the "three
o'clock" position, that would be interesting to find out.

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driverdan
I was already aware that most people choose 7 in this situation so I selected
my favorite number 8.

~~~
DeusExMachina
I was not aware of that and I actually chose 7, which is also my favorite
number.

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nose
I'd like to see a heatmap for the website. I think you can do it with google
analytics.

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bauchidgw
pleas deploy <http://code.google.com/p/jquery-ui-for-ipad-and-iphone/> or
something likt that to make the number by bar-thingie working in the ipad

~~~
jablan
Sorry, science wants you break some sweat and move to a proper computer. :P

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tejaswiy
Actually, I've heard a lot of people pick 2 or 7. Can you confirm if this is
true?

~~~
rednum
I remember reading an article on this about year ago on HN. I think that the
conclusion seemed to be that human prefer odd and prime numbers (at least in
range 1 - 20).

~~~
frooxie
Yes, they seem more "random" to people.

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hammock
Is this an actual app or is it just a trojan horse designed to collect our
data?!

~~~
alecperkins
Yes? What do you mean by app? It's an app whose entire purpose is to collect
data. I wouldn't think of it as a Trojan horse, since it doesn't pretend to be
anything else. I guess it's Trojan in that it was made in Troy, NY.

~~~
hammock
I guess no one gets the "Color" joke here...

~~~
alecperkins
Oh hahaha nicely done. Unfortunately subtlety and the Web don't mix too well.

------
eli
You shouldn't have it start on "1" -- you should make people have to slide it.

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nikcub
Thought of submitting this to mechanical turk in order to get a lot of data?

~~~
alecperkins
How about Reddit? Total votes is 160k+. Yikes!

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kirpekar
What is the point of this numerical experiment? (I"m serious)

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AbyCodes
Without something like facebook or twitter login, the system will be abused.
There is no stopping someone who just reloads ( or even make an automated
script heh ) and keeps on choosing, resulting in flawed data. Just saying.

~~~
alecperkins
Totally agreed. I'm relying on people not caring enough to abuse it — a bit
risky, I know. I just wanted something simple that wouldn't require people to
jump through hoops just to vote. Also, the IPs are now one of the metrics, for
regional breakdown, so that could be used to spot obvious anomalies.

------
samuel1604
It's all about the position of the mouse I would believe.

~~~
Urgo
That's what I was thinking too. My choice was influenced at least slightly by
where my mouse was at picking time. Would have been better to have a text
entry field I think.

------
Zolomon
I had a favourite number, and I picked it. It was 4.

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zyfo
Reminds me of Benford's Law [1], which stipulates that in many lists of
numbers from real-world data, the leading digit is 1 30% of the time, and
larger digits occur as the leading digit with lower and lower frequency
(logarithmically). This has been used to detect made-up numbers in accounting
which later turned out to be fraudulent behaviour.

1: <http://www.rexswain.com/benford.html>

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ruby_on_rails
Its a cool idea but I would recommend A/B testing different GUI for picking
numbers for removing some of the possible biases. I personally picked 7, most
likely because the human eye moves from top left to bottom right so I scanned
what the choices were then picked the number near where my eye last looked.

Also, I would love to see a heat map/click map of that page.

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TheSOB88
I did not understand what to do. I thought it was going to try to guess it. I
didn't understand that the 1 was the answer I was giving. Sadly.

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J3L2404
Of the different interfaces, the prompt in the circle looked the best,
although the mysterious black circle was OK.

------
insight
Pls add : 42

