
Hundreds of thousands take to Hong Kong streets against controversial bill - cow9
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3013725/hong-kong-edge-crowds-gather-ultimate-showdown-against
======
hkai
Just finished the 8 hour march. That was insane.

But the law is even more insane. A North Korea-like totalitarian state that
puts people in camps can just snatch any lawyer, businessman our journalist
and take them away without trial and without revealing their location.

Imagine people at startups working in sensitive areas like DNA testing,
biotech, finance or data mining can be taken away and forced to reveal data,
trade secrets, or forced to collaborate, under threat to their families or
themselves.

~~~
eldavido
(Perspective of an American who lives in a US Chinatown and speaks to many
HKers, also went there last year)

Hong Kong is over.

Historically, it benefited from being one of the only open ports, proximate to
China, but not in it. Good governance and rule of law (very important for
mercantile activity, given how much finance, insurance, and complex legal
codes around ownership / title / possession), nice real estate, etc.

Today, it feels like the PRC is playing the long game, and they're going to
win -- they'll just hang up their hats and wait 50 years, only a generation or
two, until they eventually take complete control of Hong Kong, maybe going as
far as outright annexation. They're patient, determined, and focused in a way
only a place ruled by a powerful, long-term oriented elite oligopoly can be
(vs in the US, where we still can't fix Social Security, even though everyone
knows it's a train wreck in the making, or build anything remotely resembling
China's current high-speed rail network).

The real question I have is, what's going to happen in China when Xi Jinping
(dictator for life) can no longer rule effectively? Will he willingly stop
aside or is there going to be some kind of coup / violent overthrow if the CCP
splits and can't decide whether or not it's time to replace him? That's what's
got me thinking these days.

~~~
JumpCrisscross
> _They 're patient, determined, and focused in a way only a place ruled by a
> powerful, long-term oriented elite oligopoly can be_

You’re modelling China circa 2005. Xi Jinping is now a ruler for life.
Dictatorship predicts Beijing better than long-term oligopoly.

For example, he’s been impatient with Hong Kong. If Xi respected Hong Kong’s
independence, the fraction of Hong Kongese identifying as Chinese would have
stayed high (or risen); integration in ‘47 would have proceeded seamlessly.
Instead, he got impatient. He’s impulsively abducting bookstore owners and
ramming through measures. That is stoking dissent and economic corrosion in a
totally unnecessary way.

> _what 's going to happen in China when Xi Jinping (dictator for life) can no
> longer rule effectively?_

We’ve passed the point where Xi can peacefully cede power without fearing for
his and his family’s lives.

There may be a few more peaceful transitions of power in China’s future. And
there’s a lot of political capital to burn, which gives the process time. But
any course correction will be effected by force.

~~~
ngcc_hk
Life-long dictator ended ... but for your worry many if not all his family are
Austrilan, American etc. They run away long time ago, just like many elites
there. Just still work for china’s interest in spite of any possible
reflection by seeing what the host country do. Instead they will try to take
advantage of that. That is the tragedy.

------
CamelCaseName
For anyone like me who was looking for some background on this, on Reddit,
someone linked to a Vox video entitled "China is erasing its border with Hong
Kong" [0]. At 15 minutes, it's a captivating introduction to the conflict.

Another video (6 minutes) you might be interested in by Vox is "China's
trillion dollar plan to dominate global trade" [1], which is on China Belt and
Road Initiative (BRI).

[0]:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQyxG4vTyZ8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQyxG4vTyZ8)

[1]:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvXROXiIpvQ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvXROXiIpvQ)

Edit: One great passage from the first video [0] at 11:29 says:

"The [umbrella movement] protest didn't change the government's mind and it
didn't immediately change anything in Hong Kong.

But this spectacle of young people rising up to defend their rights from the
central government of China did spark a political awakening among the many in
the city who had never before paid attention.

'I think post-umbrella movement was the first time that the middle class came
out and voted in droves, and voted for the opposition force.' \- HK Resident"

~~~
chii
The vox video paints the Belt and Road Initiative in a negative light - which
i feel is wrong. Why shouldn't China be allowed to invest and gain soft power?
Why shouldn't they be allowed to make deals with countries the US deems
'undemocratic'?

~~~
NeedMoreTea
It's been referred to as "debt trap diplomacy".

Here's a piece from last month reporting that a raft of countries including
Turkey have refused to attend latest summit.

[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/25/belt-and-
road-...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/25/belt-and-road-forum-
chinas-project-of-the-century-hits-tough-times)

~~~
tepidandroid
Alternative viewpoint: [https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/26/opinion/china-belt-
road-i...](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/26/opinion/china-belt-road-
initiative.html)

~~~
owens99
Thanks for sharing. Key point:

> Yes, debt is on the rise in the developing world, and Chinese overseas
> lending is, for the first time, a part of the story. But a number of us
> academics who have studied China’s practices in detail have found scant
> evidence of a pattern indicating that Chinese banks, acting at the
> government’s behest, are deliberately over-lending or funding loss-making
> projects to secure strategic advantages for China.

> The main example of these purported ploys is the Hambantota Port in southern
> Sri Lanka: The government handed control over the port to a Chinese company
> in 2017 after struggling to make its loan payments to China. But that’s a
> special case, and it is widely misunderstood.

> China does not publish details about its overseas lending, but the China-
> Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University (which I direct) has
> collected information on more than 1,000 Chinese loans in Africa between
> 2000 and 2017, totaling more than $143 billion. Boston University’s Global
> Development Policy Center has identified and tracked more than $140 billion
> in Chinese loans to Latin America and the Caribbean since 2005.

> Based on the findings of both institutes, it seems that the risks of B.R.I.
> are often overstated or mischaracterized.

~~~
y2kenny
According to the wiki, BRI started around 2013 [1] so how come loans made
prior to that being counted towards BRI?

My recollection is that, prior to BRI/earlier loan diplomacy from China, the
strategic goal was for influence in the UN against Taiwan (checkbook
diplomacy.) So the goals are completely different.

'Taiwan’s current foreign relations bind stems from a deal brokered in 2008.
This “diplomatic truce” guarantees that neither China nor Taiwan will pursue
formal diplomatic relations with a country that has already recognized one or
the other. Beijing calls it the one-China policy, and it forces nations to
choose between it and Taipei, with Beijing increasingly coming out the more
appealing choice.'[2]

Lumping data over strategic change seems like a poor research to me.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative#Histo...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative#History)

[2][https://www.voanews.com/a/once-influential-in-africa-
taiwan-...](https://www.voanews.com/a/once-influential-in-africa-taiwan-loses-
all-but-one-ally/4411332.html)

------
PakG1
This article is published in the SCMP. The SCMP was purchased some time ago by
Jack Ma. There were fears from various corners that Jack Ma, being friendly
with the mainland Chinese government, would influence the SCMP to have
coverage that was less independent than before. So it's interesting to see
this published by SCMP.

~~~
heraclius
The SCMP seems to have been fairly vocal. There doesn’t seem to be anything
that would stop the removal of all the critical journalists though, so I am
somewhat confused.

~~~
loyukfai
Even among the pro-Beijing businesses and the establishment, there are serious
concerns about this.

Business people want to make money, foreign companies have started to divest
from China, perhaps Hong Kong would be next?

Passing this law may akin to killing the goose for the golden eggs.

------
rayiner
I was just starting high school when the handover of Hong Kong to China
happened. Being pretty politically engaged at the time, I remember being
surprised that everyone (in the US) was so blasé about it. This was the
Clinton era, during the first tech boom. It was an optimistic, post Red Scare
time. Everyone (here in the US) assumed the arrow of history pointed in the
direction of progress, and that Hong Kong would retain the freedoms it had
previously enjoyed.

------
isaaafc
The HK government's response:
[https://www.news.gov.hk/eng/2019/06/20190609/20190609_231141...](https://www.news.gov.hk/eng/2019/06/20190609/20190609_231141_763.html)

The English and Chinese versions looks pretty different in tone, especially in
the last sentence: 'Noting that the Second Reading debate on the bill will
resume on June 12, the Government urged the Legislative Council to scrutinise
the bill in a calm, reasonable and respectful manner to help ensure Hong Kong
remains a safe city for residents and business.'

Understandable when this is for foreign press. Directly translated, the
Chinese version says: 'The Second Reading debate on the bill will resume on
June 12. End. '. Obnoxious if you understand Chinese.

------
TazeTSchnitzel
Since Hong Kong is a former British colony, English is co-official with
written Chinese there, and you can read the official brief and the text of the
bill in English on the Legislative Council website:
[https://www.legco.gov.hk/yr18-19/english/bc/bc56/general/bc5...](https://www.legco.gov.hk/yr18-19/english/bc/bc56/general/bc56.htm)

~~~
ksec
>English is co-official with written Chinese there,

That is not strictly true, while both Chinese and English are the official
languages, In writing, especially with any legals documents, in case of any
discrepancy between the English version and the Chinese version, the English
version shall prevail.

------
denverkarma
It was interesting to see the photos of the Union Jacks marching around.
Anyone with first hand experience in Hong Kong, are there many people who wish
for a return to the commonwealth, or is that a tiny minority?

~~~
terenceng2010
I would say that most HK ppl just want a stable environment to live and happy
to have a status quo. But recently, given the circumstance, more ppl do think
UK can take more measures, say, in some way, to allow BNO holder to work and
settle easier in UK, given that these holders are willing to and capable to do
so.

And ppl might miss the last decades of British rules too, in an emotional way,
as Economically and culturally HK was in a very good shape. Though most ppl
won’t express it with a union flag in a public setting.

------
rococode
Could someone explain to me what the plan is for the end of the 50 year
transition period? From my extremely uninformed point of view, this feels like
delaying the inevitable. Is there a different outcome than Hong Kong
eventually being entirely under the Chinese government?

~~~
loyukfai
Am not sure there was any solid plans. People have, or had, different
aspirations.

It, more than anything, IMO, was said to appease the fear of the HK people who
had a deep mistrust of the PRC government. Still, a lot of people emigrated
before 1997.

Note that the saying is kind of vague anyway, it just says that the capitalist
system and "ways of living" will not change.

------
yorwba
See also
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20137955](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20137955)

------
ETHisso2017
> The latest proposal has come after a 19-year-old Hong Kong man allegedly
> murdered his 20-year-old pregnant girlfriend while they were holidaying in
> Taiwan together in February last year. The man fled Taiwan and returned to
> Hong Kong last year.

> Taiwanese officials have sought help from Hong Kong authorities to extradite
> the man, but Hong Kong officials say they cannot comply because of the lack
> of an extradition agreement with Taiwan.

> But the Taiwanese government has said it will not seek to extradite the
> murder suspect under the proposed changes, and has urged Hong Kong to handle
> the case separately.

I thought the extradition bill was to / from China? What does Taiwan have to
do with this?

~~~
yskchu
This article has a nice infographic:
[https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/hong-
kong/arti...](https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/hong-
kong/article/3013512/hong-kong-extradition/index.html?src=app)

Basically Hong Kong right now, has a whole bunch of extradition treaties with
20 countries[1], just not with both China governments, due to the existing
law. The bill fixes this.

Also, the 19 year old HK man admitted to the crime [2], however due to the the
crime being committed outside HK, he can't be tried for manslaughter in HK;
the HK authorities can only charge him with "money laundering" of his
girlfriend's money and property (again [2]). He is currently serving the
sentence for money laundering, and he's going to be released in October.
However if this bill is passed he can be extradited and tried for murder in
Taiwan.

[1] With Australia, Britain, Canada, the Czech Republic, France, Finland,
Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Malaysia, the Netherlands, New Zealand,
the Philippines, Portugal, South Korea, Singapore, South Africa, Sri Lanka and
the United States

[2] [https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-
crime/article/30...](https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-
crime/article/3008099/sentence-man-who-killed-girlfriend-taiwan-sets)

~~~
JumpCrisscross
> _if this bill is passed he can be extradited and tried for murder in Taiwan_

Except Taiwan isn’t China. If Taiwan and Hong Kong want an extradition treaty,
they can sign one.

This bill is to enable the lawful extradition of dissenters. (Beijing tried
doing it surreptitiously [1]; that backfired.)

[1] [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/08/hong-kong-
book...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/08/hong-kong-bookseller-
abducted-by-china-vows-to-reopen-shop-in-taiwan)

~~~
ufo
> Except Taiwan isn’t China

In practice it isn't, but on paper it is, both according to the People's
Republic of China and the Republic of China. (One-China Policy)

------
enraged_camel
When I was in HK a few years ago, there was a lot of annoyance amongst the
general public that GovHK was starting to get dominated by pro-China
individuals. So I get the impression this bill is their doing.

------
cwperkins
Whatever side you are on here just remember, Freedom of assembly is such an
important right to hold dear. With the censorious nature of the Chinese
Communist Party, I fear what the implications of a bill like this could lead
to.

~~~
SubiculumCode
To me its quite.clear there is one right side in this, and it.lies with the
people marching.

------
el_cujo
In fifteen minutes the permit to organize expires, lets hope this remains
(mostly) peaceful.

------
jameslin
What the protesters don't tell you is that there are nearly 1 million HKers
signed and counting supporting the bill.

[https://www.safeguardhongkong.hk/](https://www.safeguardhongkong.hk/)

~~~
throwaway1997
These online petitions tend to be largely filled in by people from North of
the border. There is no way of verifying that the signatories are Hong Kong
people (the only validation is the last four digits of HKID which can be any
four digit number)

------
mothsonasloth
Will this break any of the terms with the British Hong Kong handover?

AFAIK the agreement mentions that China must not interfere politically or
economically with the capitalistic nature of Hong Kong for at least 50 years.

~~~
intopieces
What does it mean to break the agreement, anyway? Is the UK going to come take
HK back?

~~~
arcticbull
So far the MO has been write a strongly worded memo and return focus to
leaving the EU for some reason.

------
powerapple
a solution to all problems: referendum.

------
ngcc_hk
>1 million

------
terenceng2010
It might not change HK government attitude after all, but it shows that Hong
Kongers align with western values - no one should live under the fear of
arbitrary prosecution.

~~~
math_and_stuff
Why say 'align with western values' instead of 'respect human rights'? Freedom
of speech and assembly are encoded in the Universal Declaration of Human
Rights.

~~~
intopieces
Because the issue they are protesting is extradition and the rule of law being
maintained; HK has a western style rule of law, mainland has practically no
rule of law to speak of.

~~~
godelski
I think the distinction trying to be made here is that Chinese, Hongkongers,
and Taiwanese people don't see themselves as westerners. Posters aren't saying
that they shouldn't fight for basic human rights, but rather that basic human
rights aren't "western", they are human. We being westerners should be proud
that we have laws like this, but that doesn't mean we need to impose
everything western on others. It also doesn't mean that our fight for basic
human rights is fundamentally western. Just the same way it isn't American,
British, German, etc. They are _basic human rights_ after all, and last I
checked these people are still humans.

TLDR: basic human rights doesn't mean you have to identify as western.

------
rcpt
I don't know why but protests on the scale of hundreds of thousands just seems
impossible in America

~~~
pmiller2
That’s what those in power want you to think. Here’s a list of 19 protests
with at least 100k participants:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_protests_in_the_United...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_protests_in_the_United_States_by_size)

Four of them have taken place since November 2016.

~~~
Zenbit_UX
Fascinating link but your color commentary on those in power trying to
surpress this knowledge makes you sound irrational - despite being completely
right. If those in power wanted to prevent this knowledge it wouldn't be on
Wikipedia for any to edit.

~~~
pmiller2
How is it irrational to claim that those in power don’t want people knowing
about massive protests against what they’re doing? (Tianiman Square, anyone?)
The knowledge doesn’t need to be suppressed because it’s hidden in plain sight
amongst all the other internet noise.

