

Is Apple Losing Its Shine After Steve Jobs? - garbowza
http://business.time.com/2012/08/03/is-apple-losing-its-shine-after-steve-jobs

======
jpxxx
So tedious.

Apple is extremely well positioned in front of almost every mass trend
happening in consumer electronics. They are sitting on a tenth of a trillion
dollars in cash. They have content deals with more companies in more places
than almost anyone else on Earth. They are ending investment in unfruitful
markets. They have a rapidly converging consumer platform that has essentially
no identifiable competitive weaknesses. Investor confidence is thunderingly
high. They're headquartered in an extremely pro-business nation and feted as
the last great American wonder business with all that implies politically.
They have a global retail arm that defies everything known about retail. Their
manufacturing pipeline shames former industry leaders. Their litigation is
top-notch. Their customer goodwill is limitless and serves to smooth over many
failures in execution and experience.

They are, even if all goes dark tomorrow, one of the greatest successes in our
industry that we will see in our lives. So as someone put above: if Apple can
survive iPod Socks and the G4 Cube, they can probably survive whatever some
stringer for Time is reading in the tea leaves.

Does anyone have any actual concerns about actual Apple as it pertains to the
actual real world? I'll start:

\- Their push for a tax holiday is going to go over extremely poorly in an
election year

\- Their extremely slow iPhone hardware update cycle leaves them vulnerable to
fast-evolving competitors and a single bad product will poison the well for
years

\- The colossal amount of value stored nowadays in a single Apple ID means the
damage from a security breach or intrusion is astronomical

\- Apple has nothing interesting or heartening to say about their law
enforcement policies vis a vis the data they collect

\- Stitched leatherette Contacts

~~~
dfc
Stitched leatherette Contacts?

~~~
jpxxx
An evolving trend in OS X and iOS is to rework various applications into
little faux leatherette items - Contacts and Calendars have both received this
treatment.

Reaction is almost universally negative, even among tech uninvolved customers.
It appears unprofessional and unbusinesslike to them and tarnishes the image
of Apple software as being elegant and industry-best. Apple's made small
retreats lately but the idiom is still riding high.

------
hjkl
Can Apple do anything other than lose its shine? Is it possible for it to get
shinier? I mean, it already has the world's highest market cap and is revered
in a way the subsequent next highest market cap companies aren't (Exxon, MS,
Wal-mart).

It's like a basketball player who makes 100 free throws in a row, misses a
couple, and people wonder what the hell happened to him/her.

~~~
WillyF
Or more like a basketball player who swishes 100 free throws in a row, makes
the next one but catches a little rim...

------
kevinh
Apple has done some things that I don't think are wise since the death of
Steve Jobs - the "new iPad" branding, the new Apple ads, the potential new
form factors developer have to design for.

However, they also made some decisions that I thought were stupid when Steve
Jobs _was_ there, such as releasing the iPad (which I thought would fail for
sure). I'm just waiting to see how everything shakes out before I pass
judgment. I've been dead wrong about Apple before, and I don't really see any
reason I'll be correct with my opinions now.

~~~
shadesandcolour
What is wrong with their branding. Sure the genius ads didn't go off that
well, but I didn't find the message to be that bad. And as for the "new iPad",
I'd love to hear your thoughts.

~~~
kevinh
I, and many of my coworkers, found the ad series - especially the "Basically"
ad painful to watch because it was so embarrassing to watch. Apple generally
tries to make their products seem "cool", but this ad did just the opposite.
Add that to the fact that no one that I'm aware of makes something that is
"basically a Mac" and you get a really odd ad.

The new iPad branding would be fine - if they weren't planning to make any new
models of the iPad. It would forever remain the "new iPad". However, assuming
they _do_ release a new iPad, anyone who still uses the new iPad terminology
will have to refer to the new iPad as the old new iPad, or, do what pretty
much everyone else has done, and refer to it as the iPad 3. I noticed
something similar to this the other day when I was comparing the 1998 VW
Beetle (which was released under the name the Volkswagen New Beetle) with the
2012 VW Beetle (released under the name Volkswagen Beetle). In order to get
which car I was talking about across I had to refer to the 1998 beetle as the
old new beetle and the 2012 beetle as the new new beetle, which was awkward
and felt counter-intuitive to everyone involved.

However, like I said, we'll see how this all shakes out. I've certainly been
wrong about Apple's future success before, and I'm sure I'll be wrong about it
again.

~~~
reaktivo
What do you call any old MacBook or iMac?

------
wickedchicken
"After all, during his too-brief, once-in-a-century career, he radically
disrupted at least seven industries: personal computing, desktop software,
music, mobile phones, publishing, tablet computers, and Hollywood animation"

Completely OT, but I thought it was interesting to note that the time
difference between the first mobile phone and the first commercially
successful smartphone (1973-2007) and the time difference between the
invention of the telegraph and telephone (1832-1876) were approximately the
same. Apparently awesomeness takes 40 years to bloom.

~~~
jmduke
I love my iPhone, but calling it the first commercially successful smartphone
is willfully ignorant of the Blackberry.

~~~
ricardobeat
The time gap stands (1973-2002/2003).

~~~
jmduke
Quite true!

------
myprasanna
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridges_Law_of_Headlines>

~~~
jerf
[http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/news/hardware/Will-A...](http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/news/hardware/Will-
Apple-keep-its-shine/articleshow/10261509.cms)

------
brisance
Apple is propping up the NASDAQ and S&P500. Apple's iPhone revenue alone
generates more than all of Microsoft's various business units combined. I'd
say that's a pretty good way of losing its shine.

~~~
herval
Remember when people used that exact same phrase refering to Nokia? I do...

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watmough
I haven't bought any non-Apple computers or phones in ages, but I just
succumbed to the lure of the Nexus 7.

It's fantastic, and a great all-around device. It surfs the web, does Gmail,
and hooks up to bluetooth, with a great battery life.

As far as I'm concerned, that's near enough iPad functionality for half the
cost.

~~~
mhenr18
I absolutely despise Gmail and am so happy to have left for iCloud email. My
personal life shouldn't be shouldered by advertisements for the highest
bidder. It's the same reason I hardly touch Facebook anymore - I don't give a
damn about what you're trying to sell, I'm trying to communicate with the
people I care about.

(edit: it's also the reason why I prefer the Facebook mobile app over the web
interface when I do need to use it, because it's not tainted by entities I
don't care about)

The tablet looks okay but there's no appealing reason for me to want it when
it won't do anything that I want of it - I can't Cmd-S in Pages and then lie
in front of the TV while making edits on a document. I can't have all of my
music with me at all times and I can't pull up my Photo Stream after a day out
with friends. For me to even consider an Android device, there would need to
be some way for it to integrate into an iCloud lifestyle and I really don't
see that ever happening.

------
jasonkolb
They haven't had a product that people lust after in a long time. In fact,
with other tablets now viable competitors, I'd say their laptops are their
most lust-inducing product out there.

I just don't know how they can regain that level of desirability without
disrupting another vertical. Or if they make some truly radical hardware
innovations, such that it is visible and will make it obvious that you are
using an Apple product and not a Samsung. The touchscreen iPhone with gestures
and a full browser was a device like that, but that gap has long since been
closed by other manufacturers. Siri was, I think, an attempt to do that again,
but it wasn't quite ready--something that almost makes me think that Jobs knew
he had to pull something out of his hat immediately, even at the cost of
shelving his famous perfectionism.

~~~
jmduke
The iPad was released less than three years ago. What's your definition of 'a
long time'?

~~~
dfc
Why do you assume that the problem is the definition of "long time" and not
the definition of "lust after." It seems that you think everyone is lusting
after the iPad? I know I am not lusting after the iPad, but I'm not a mac
lover. The iPad has certainly not matched the lust inducing levels of the
iphone or ipod or osx.

~~~
jmduke
The iPad held 73% of the tablet market last year, most of which came from
market entrants who entered solely for the iPad. I don't know what by metric
you're judging 'lust' (hopefully it's not just your desire), but its hard to
imagine a more impressive performance.

~~~
dfc
Stats without footnotes are as useful as my anecdotal evidence. Moreover how
big is that market?

~~~
pooriaazimi
They've sold 84 million iPads, 44 million of which were sold in the past 8-10
months.

[http://www.pcworld.com/article/259829/apple_earnings_disappo...](http://www.pcworld.com/article/259829/apple_earnings_disappoint_but_ipad_sales_continue_to_surge.html)

~~~
dfc
What does that have to do with 73%?

~~~
pooriaazimi
Two posts above:

> _Moreover how big is that market?_

They sold 44 million in three quarters, and they have (at least) 73% market
share. So, a total of 80 million in 2012. Probably 50% more in 2013.

~~~
dfc
Where are you getting the 73% from? The uncited statistic upthread? And where
are you getting the growth projections from?

------
jonhendry
Two words: iPod Socks.

~~~
taligent
Actually this and that giant iPod Speaker was probably two of the most subtle
yet genius decisions Apple ever made.

They demonstrated to accessory manufacturers that there was a lucrative market
for them to get participate in. Not to mention putting "facts on the ground"
about expected sales, profit margins etc for them to build their product
strategy around.

~~~
jonhendry
I'm pretty sure there were already accessories on the market at that point. I
don't think the iPod Hi-Fi was the first high-end iPod-oriented speaker
system.

------
Zenst
Ask this question in two years time once the projects Jobs was apart of have
run there course.

But personaly I see no shine lost, sure they lost a great man but there again
he had more than enough time to leave his legacy inplace and that is exactly
what he did. If jobs was still about I'd expect the share price to be exactly
the same and with that the public have already answeared this question that
need not be asked.

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philip1209
I decided not to read the article when I saw that Time was accusing the 22nd
largest company in the world [1] of being in decline. Time lost its shine with
the decline of print media.

[http://www.forbes.com/global2000/#p_3_s_a0_All%20industries_...](http://www.forbes.com/global2000/#p_3_s_a0_All%20industries_All%20countries_All%20states_)

~~~
DigitalSea
Along with every single other print publication, not just Time. Misguided
statement there, buddy.

~~~
MordinSolus
How does that make his statement misguided?

Even if I accept your premise that every single other print publication has
declined as well, that doesn't make his statement any less true. The statement
was only about Time.

And I certainly don't accept your premise.

------
LaSombra
Apple adding HDMI and reverting the Apple TV UI, to me, are already signs of
that. What's next? Blu-ray?

~~~
r00fus
The Apple TV has had HDMI for years.

If you're talking about the new HDMI interface on the retina screen - I think
it's a good move - DisplayPort will take years to appear on TVs and this was a
serious feature that didn't compete with Apple's other products (unlike Blu-
Ray - the entire Apple ecosystem relies on the fact that people are moving
away from spinning media)... HDMI is not unlike the addition of the SD card
slot in the MBP a couple years ago... a welcome addition.

~~~
LaSombra
I agree with you, but Jobs always said he wouldn't add HDMI to Apple's laptops
because of license fees and rigidity of the standard, IIRC. Jobs never said
anything against SD or EC.

Though I agree it is useful, I doubt HDMI would make it under Jobs.

------
brunoqc
Maybe.

We should also consider that maybe the smart phone trend thing is starting to
slow down. Since most of the possibles innovations are already done it's
harder to think of new features except maybe more power.

~~~
ricardobeat
Not nearly. There is so much to be explored, even with current technologies
like NFC, Bluetooth LE, OLED, pico-projectors, sensors, mesh networking, that
current phones will look ancient in 5 years.

------
nirvana
People have been saying that Apple was going down, in my experience, since
1981 with the introduction of the IBM PC.

Seriously, in the 1980s it was IBM, Commodore, Tandy, et al. In the 1990s it
was Windows. In the past decade every two-bit media player was called an iPod
killer. Every phone ripping off the iPhone is called an iPhone killer. Every
tablet is called an iPad killer.

And of course the myth has been spread that anything Apple does well is just
the result of Steve Jobs.

Just as everyone who buys Apple products does so because they come under Steve
Jobs "reality distortion field".

And how everything Apple has been doing in the past 5 years was poor because
Steve Jobs health was bad.

How about that the iPod sucked becuase it didn't have an FM tuner?

Or the iPhone is never going to fly without a physical keyboard.

Or the iPad sounds like a woman's product and nobody will buy it, and of
course nobody will carry it around.

Etc. Etc. Etc.

Apple is failing, always has been, and always will be.

Every time the stock goes down $30 (equivalent to a $60 stock going down $3)
the stock is crashing.

When Apple misses wall street expectations by a few cents (but beats their
projections) its a sign that the stock is in decline - before Steve Jobs died
it was just proof that Apple sucked. When he was sick, it was because he lost
control. Now that he's dead, Apple will never be able to accomplish anything
good.

It has been 30 years of this crap.

~~~
KevinEldon
Steve Jobs suggests that Apple didn't innovate while he wasn't there
([http://www.macrumors.com/2011/09/19/steve-jobs-apple-
almost-...](http://www.macrumors.com/2011/09/19/steve-jobs-apple-almost-went-
bankrupt-because-it-failed-to-innovate/)).

The question is then does Apple, without Jobs, have the visionaries and the
management team supporting those visionaries to pioneer very specific markets
to continue earning billions in the future. I'd guess that over the next few
years a Google Glass-style device is ready for the market and some sort of
car-friendly voice-controlled heads-up-display computing device is capable of
commanding billions, but outside of that it's going to be about apps and
information... and although Apple has a huge presence today and lots of cash
they've got a very hard positition to hold as Google, Microsoft, Amazon, etc.
are fighting for the same consumers who are paying a premium for Apple
products.

My dad got a 1st gen iPad and really liked it. He just got a Nexus 7 and
ditched his iPad. He doesn't think it's amazing or anything, but he can fit it
in his pocket, buy books from Amazon directly, it was only $200 and it's
lighter and easier to read on. At some point Apple's differentiation shifts
from being innovative devices to being "sexy" design and a great interface...
sure that sells, but it doesn't sell at nearly the same level as truly
innovative devices like the iPod, iPhone, or iPad can. Apple's doing well
today, but maintaining this level of success if going to be extremely
difficult.

~~~
taligent
> Google Glass-style device is ready for the market and some sort of car-
> friendly voice-controlled heads-up-display

I am sorry but anyone who thinks devices like these are going to be some wild
success are ignorant of the realities of our society.

People do not want to be recorded by random third parties and existing privacy
laws in many countries respect that. As such the current use case of the
device is likely to be illegal from day one. Throw in the problems of
recording of children, recording inside workplaces and public institutions,
complications for law enforcement, distraction whilst driving etc. The end
result being the only place you could safely wear them is inside your own
home.

Do I think it will be common in the future. Sure. But society and the law
moves a lot slower than people realise.

~~~
drumdance
_People do not want to be recorded by random third parties_

...unless they get tremendous (perceived) value from it. Facebook, anyone?

~~~
dfc
People do not recognize the privacy invasion of using facebook. Try and follow
a stranger around with a video camera, I doubt it goes over well.

------
greenranger
Whatever. Apple makes 35 billion instead of the expected 37 billion in a non-
holiday quarter - sooo disappointing! They must really be losing their way.

All things of course come to an end, but does 35 billion worth of revenue in a
quarter signal Cupertino's imminent demise? I mean come on, how many consumer
companies can say they've sold 35 billion dollars worth of anything?

IMHO, Apple's downfall will come from growing and expanding too much, not too
little.

