

Evan Williams: Will it fly? How to Evaluate a New Product Idea - staunch
http://evhead.com/2007/12/how-to-evaluate-new-product-idea.asp

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raghus
Best line: "The web is getting so damn big, what seem like niche ideas can be
very decent businesses."

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marcus
Evan misses one very important component of evaluating an idea. What is the
effect of mass liquidity on the value add. Is the value gained by the first
user identical to the value of the millionth user.

Google,Amazon - even if I was the only user in the world using them, would be
just as useful for me.

On the other side of the scale - eBay,Digg are totally useless if I am the
only one using them.

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tptacek
You mean "Network effect", don't you? I think he buries it in "Deepness".

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marcus
His quote: "practically any application, once people start using it, can be
used as a lever to more activity and benefit delivery. Being smart about what
you're leveraging is key."

But my point is that some applications aren't viable at all without this
critical mass and some are. While obviously everyone wants more users, for
some ideas the critical mass requirement is a very high initial obstacle and
for some it isn't.

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tptacek
I'm not saying you're wrong; I'm saying there's a hoary old cliche that you
can use to communicate the same thing: "He forgot to add Network Effects".
Ebay relies on a network effect; Amazon doesn't.

I don't imagine that he forgot it; I think he's assuming most web startups
rely on it. He is, after all, Pyra, Odeo, and Twitter.

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davidw
Uh, why are people voting this down?

> some applications aren't viable at all without this critical mass and some
> are

That is exactly what "network effects", or "positive network externalities"
means, and they're critical to many, but not all, information goods.

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migpwr
similar to this:
[http://www.amazon.com/o/ASIN/0130462217/002-0316973-9644868?...](http://www.amazon.com/o/ASIN/0130462217/002-0316973-9644868?SubscriptionId=1T8GXYG45A6Y2VJ9YKR2)

only this article applies to web apps...

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edw519
Call me old fashioned, but it's hard to take an article about evaluating ideas
seriously whens it never mentions "customer", "demand", "want", or "need".

This is typical geek thinking. What can "I" do? What's cool to "ME"? How do
"I" succeed?

Slow down for one minute and look at things from the eyes of your prospects.
Better yet, ask them. THAT'S the best way to evaluate a new product idea.

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ALee
He does discuss "Is it clear why people should use it?" and whether the
product is personal compelling.

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edw519
"Is it clear why people should use it?" DOES NOT EQUAL "Is it what people
want?"

This is not an argument in semantics. This is the ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY, MOST
FUNDAMENTAL question in business. If there is no demand, you are dead. Making
something that creates demand is about as likely as winning the lottery
(albeit as lucrative).

I'll stand by my original post. You must satisfy a demand. The best way to
identify that demand is to ask. The best way to ask is to know your prospects.
None of this is ever mentioned in the original article.

Whoever downmodded my original post still doesn't get it. I am interested in
using technology to build a sustainable business, not a hobby. So I care about
my customer first. That's the whole point.

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pchristensen
The good news is, you don't have to know about the demand and neither do the
demanders! As was mentioned a couple times in the "Will there always be more
room for web startups" discussion last week
(<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=89055>), customers often don't know what
they want until they see it or use it. That unknown demand is why the trial
and error of the marketplace always tolerates "crazy" ideas. I agree with your
comment that you should ask and find out what customers want, but you can
definitely succeed if your instinct matches an unexpressed demand (Twitter,
Facebook) or if you can envision a product better than customers can express
it (Apple)

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edw519
"customers often don't know what they want until they see it or use it"

Absolutely.

And I want to be the one who gets to know them, understands their pain, asks
the right questions, and prototypes. I want to be the one who is told, "Yes!
That's what I want!" instead of those who depend on trial and error or
instinct.

And sometimes, I just have to get up off my butt and away from my screen to
get that done.

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JohnN
some coverage here

<http://scribblesheet.co.uk/article/is_your_idea_any_good>

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downer
Will It Blend?

<http://www.willitblend.com/>

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tptacek
How do you downmod "Will it Blend"? Reexamine your priorities!

