
Lady Wins Fourth Lottery: What Are the Odds? - mattstat
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=2597
======
ulvund
In an episode of This American Life there was a story of a guy who bought
lottery jackpots. ([http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-
archives/episode/329/N...](http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-
archives/episode/329/Nice-Work-If-You-Can-Get-It) 20 minutes in)

This was during a time where you could not receive the full amount of the
jackpot immediately -- regulation dictated that you had to get it in monthly
instalments.

This guy would offer a lump sum here and now in exchange for the monthly
instalments.

The winners were overspending because they started 'acting like millionaires'
without having enough money from the monthly payments, so he would get them
out of trouble and make a profit at the same time.

While signing a deal with one lottery winner, the lottery winner promptly
bought 1000 scratch tickets without even bothering reading the contract he
signed.

~~~
pavel_lishin
I'm sure you have no idea, but maybe someone else will read this: I grabbed
the mp3 for that story, and would like to listen to it on my iPod as a podcast
- meaning that when I pause, and listen to something else, resuming the
podcast will resume from the point where I stopped.

Is there a way of doing this in iTunes? I tried creating an RSS feed, and
iTunes added it to my podcast list, but it won't grab the damned file - and of
course, doesn't tell me why.

~~~
weaksauce
Right click on the file in iTunes and go to get info. Then go to options
remember playback position. This will work for any audio file that you have in
iTunes.

Edit:

Also, just add the file to your library the normal way(No RSS) and do the
above.

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terminus
Sounds like a clear case of Survivor bias:
[http://blog.asmartbear.com/business-advice-plagued-by-
surviv...](http://blog.asmartbear.com/business-advice-plagued-by-survivor-
bias.html).

The analysis on the article details goes into the odds and is actually quite
good.

~~~
RK
I have been trying to come up with a concept for this bias for a while for a
certain case. The argument is that the earth has the "perfect" conditions for
life. Any deviation would result in a planet devoid of life, thus only an
intelligent designer could create such conditions. Survivor bias seems to be
the exact term I've been looking for to describe this fallacy. Thanks for the
link.

~~~
terminus
You are welcome. We could extend your observation about the earth to the
universe: the universe is the way it is because had it been any other way, we
wouldn't be there to observe it (and to comment on intelligent design or the
lack of it!)

The term used in Physics for this is the Anthropic principle
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle>.

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clueless123
Not suggesting anything.. (Honestly), but lottery tickets and such have been
used by druglords to launder money many times. 1\. Buy a winning lotto ticket
from a real winner, pay them full price amount 2\. Give ticket to corrupt
official in exchange for services 3\. Chief of police/minister/judge wins the
lotto! (again!)

Such cases defeat statistical odds, and ruin the numbers.

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gamble
More interesting to me are the odds that this woman is colluding with a
lottery insider or a crooked retailer to divert and cash winning tickets.

~~~
pavel_lishin
More interesting to me to see what the odds are of nobody in the world ever
winning four lotteries.

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goatforce5
What's the chance of this lady winning four lotteries?

About 100%, apparently.

~~~
yafujifide
Yeah, this is a perfect example of Bayesian inference in action, where you
update the probabilities upon receiving more information.

What's the probability that this lady will win four lotteries?

Before the first lottery, insanely low, say 10^20 to one. (I haven't actually
computed this, but you get the point.)

After the first one, it becomes a little more probable; say 10^15 to one.

After the second, 10^10 to one.

After the third, 10^5 to one.

After the fourth, 100%.

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Sam_Odio
The interesting part is after she first win Joan was able to find 3 other
opportunities where the PV of playing was less than the cost of the ticket
(assuming $1 tickets). 1 in 1,200,000 chance to win $10M? I'd take that.

~~~
ahi
I have seen scratch-off tickets cost as much as $20 a pop. I think it is safe
to assume that the lottery commission is smart enough not to give away free
money.

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languagehacker
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_restaurant_process>

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MaysonL
I would say that the (a priori) odds of this happening depend strongly upon
how many tickets the lady bought.

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jeffepp
Oh I submitted this last night - too early :]

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gojomo
If you plowed each lottery's winnings into more lottery tickets, you'd
eventually lose everything, but probably win a few more lotteries on the way
down. So it's not that unlikely to see this pattern, if a large number of
lottery tickets are purchased.

