

More than 20% of self-made billionaires never completed college - oz
http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/02/billionaire-clusters-harvard-skull-and-bones-goldman-business-billionaires-wealth.html

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Anon84
If you look at it the other way around

 _80% of self-made billionaires went to college_

~~~
breck
Furthermore:

Less than 50% of people went to college.

Despite that, 80% of self-made billionaires went to college.

~~~
tc

      (eq 'correlation 'causation) => NIL
    

Which could also be explained by observing that people born into more
fortunate socioeconomic circumstances, with all that entails (different value
systems, better health, better connections, better early education, etc.),
have both a higher probability of going to college and a higher probability of
becoming billionaires. The two outcomes are correlated, but one is not
necessarily causal of the other. Completing college could even marginally
_decrease_ someone's chances of becoming a billionaire, and you could still
see the same correlation.

see: <http://norvig.com/experiment-design.html>

_Warning Sign I7: Confusing Correlation with Causation_

~~~
dusklight
What you say is true but neither of the two posts above yours stated or
implied any causation.

~~~
tc
My reading of the parent post was that the commenter was implying a causation
by suggesting the difference between the percentage of college attendees in
the general population vs the percentage of college attendees in the
population of billionaires was conclusive of something significant ("despite
that...").

If readers didn't understand the parent and grandparent posts to imply
something more significant than basic math, I doubt the posts would have
received so many upvotes.

~~~
copenja
I up voted him because I thought the statistics showed an interesting
correlation.

~~~
tc
I'm curious though why you found it interesting. Without further data or
analysis, the statements have no substantial meaning unless one conflates
correlation with causation. You could just as easily say "people who go to
college are more likely to have straight teeth."

~~~
breck
I definitely was not implying causation.

I was merely pointing out that the article takes the exceptions (dropouts that
became billionaires) as the rule, when in fact the opposite is true: dropouts
don't become billionaires; graduates do.

The article says the probability of becoming a billionaire increases if you
are a dropout because 20% of billionaires are dropouts. But in fact, because
there are many more people who didnt complete college than who did, this is
even _more wrong_ than if you didn't take that into consideration(which it
seems the article didn't).

Like pretty much every article in any type of popular publication, the
statistical analysis in this article is wrong. Not "somewhat off", but
"wrong". Like, if I was a stat teacher, I would put "F" at the top of the
page. Just like I put "F" in my mind on every CNBC or WSJ headline that says
"Market drops because of...".

My comment was very short because if I put in much time debunking improper
statistics I'd run out of time fast.

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omnivore
Aah, more of this madness. The only people who can afford to drop out of
college to pursue a startup are those with parents who will subsidize them
while they do it, have extensive contacts or those who get very, very lucky.

It's just not practical advice and society doesn't treat folks in the status
quo particularly well who do so. You might get far, but inevitably you'll get
stuck in a rut somewhere along the way, if you end up out of startupland,
because of your lack of an degree or sometimes, an advanced degree or two.

It's not fair, but that's the way the world is. If brilliant folks were more
interested in finding ways to bust the higher ed/accreditation monopoly,
rather than building the next Facebook or Twitter-killer, perhaps we can solve
this problem before our kids become adults.

~~~
modoc
I have to disagree with this. I dropped out of college, spent the winter as a
snowboard bum in Colorado, moved back to Boston, and started working for
minimum wage in retail. Managed to save enough money to buy a new computer.
Got a better job, rinse & repeat. At no time was I subsidized by anyone else.
I also don't think I was "very very lucky". Sure, I consider myself lucky in
general, but the path from dropping out of college to success is all about
hard work (and some natural aptitude wrt tech startup stuff).

I'd argue that if you have what it takes to create a successful tech startup
(technical skills, strong drive/work ethic, determination, unhealthy
willingness to work 16 hours a day, etc...) then you could do just fine
dropping out of college. If you don't have those things, then I'd say stay in
college for sure, but you won't start a successful startup regardless.

I'm also not sure what you want people to "fix" in higher education. I'm not
saying it's perfect, but it sounds like you want EVERYONE to create startups.
No matter how amazing college is, most people simply don't the right set of
traits for that, and that's 100% okay! Society needs artists, call reps,
grocery store managers, stay at home moms/dads, and everything else. Plus I
honestly don't think sitting at the computer for 10-18 hours/day is physically
or mentally healthy. So while I do it a lot, I'm really glad most people
don't.

~~~
omnivore
I certainly didn't tell everyone to create startups. But reading here, that's
what it seems like it trends towards.

If you're over the age of 27, your example just doesn't count. It's not nearly
as easy today to do what you did, than it was a decade ago. The economy has
changed dramatically and ancedotal experiences aside, it's hardly a blueprint
for mass success.

There is no inverse relationship between "hard work" and "success" in a
startup. But that's a fallacy that a lot of folks here seem to believe. If it
worked for you, that's great. But it's not some sort of reality for everyone.

~~~
menloparkbum
_It's not nearly as easy today to do what you did, than it was a decade ago_

It's even easier. Enlightened hiring managers just want to see output: github,
websites, blogs, downloadable software, etc. At the startups I've worked for
recently we only looked thoroughly at a resume if the person had no online
presence (which was already a red flag).

Maybe you won't get hired at Google or an investment bank, though.

~~~
electromagnetic
I know from personal experience that a journalism degree will get you nowhere
fast in the writing world. Some of the top editors screen out candidates by if
their degree is anything but a passing mention on their resume, if it's the
top thing in your experiences you're rejected.

I got a job at 17 writing reviews, when I left the job (due to the politics of
the job) I had more than enough experience to apply for a job for one of the
big magazines. What editors are looking for in writers is a great personal
voice, which is something journalism classes teach out of you. I have _never_
seen 'journalism degree' listed on any job in journalism, it's simply not
wanted.

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ivankirigin
100% of billionaires are outliers. Try not to extract patterns hoping for
repeatable success.

~~~
gills
Well said. I would guess (and it's only a guess) that people with the drive to
become billionaires would find a way regardless of formal education, and that
there is no recipe you can follow to reach an outlier level of wealth.

~~~
marcusbooster
Warren Buffet observed the correlation between access and wealth. If you
figure what the "rate of genius" is, meaning if genius happens let's say 1 in
a 1000, then it would stand to reason that there's more successful people in
China and India by the numbers. But if we look at the list of billionaires by
nationality* we see the U.S. has the overwhelming majority of them - 359
compared to 28/24.

Genius does not equal wealth or even success perhaps, but I think there can be
parallels drawn between them. Mr. Buffet himself said he would not have been
the success he is if he were born in some place like Peru or something.

* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_billionaires_by_nationa...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_billionaires_by_nationality)

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blizkreeg
I sometimes wonder if startups and silicon valley culture have been
romanticized and hyped to such an extent that the immediate thing that comes
to the mind of young hackers is to drop out of college to pursue/start a
startup! Dreams are great, and so is working towards them but I don't think
one should get carried away by this madness and start buying into and
believing this fallacy. A startup is not simply about working on a cool
project or some fancy idea that you believe is fancy, it's in essence a
business. A solid, successful business takes many hands and years to build.
Not each of us is a Gates. A few years finishing college is not going to set
you back and will certainly not get in the way of the brilliant entrepreneur.

I'm all for working on your passionate ideas, creating something of value,
building a valuable startup -- but come on, let's not erode the basics and
ignore the foundation of the building in hopes of getting to the top floor
fast.

It is foolish to take a few examples of outliers and think of it as a pattern
in general.

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trjordan
Put another way, 70% of self-made billionaires completed college. This strikes
me as higher than the national average, so completing college increases the
chances of you becoming a billionaire.

Also, with a sample size of only 292, I find it hard to believe you could
precisely determine what made them a billionaire. In fact, for all they
measured, you could probably find 100 people of each who shared all of the
same characteristics and are not billionaires.

~~~
tc
_Put another way, 70% of self-made billionaires completed college. This
strikes me as higher than the national average, so completing college
increases the chances of you becoming a billionaire._

Your conclusion does not follow from the data.

<http://norvig.com/experiment-design.html>

 _Warning Sign I7: Confusing Correlation with Causation_

------
vincentvwyl
You have to be very careful with following those kinds of trends, particularly
as there are generational factors that play a role. The 'no college' approach
may have been a perfectly valid way to do it during the boom years, but it
doesn't necessary make sense today or tomorrow. I found this HBR-article
particularly valuable at how society changes over time:
[http://harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu/hbsp/hbr/artic...](http://harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu/hbsp/hbr/articles/article.jsp?articleID=R0707B&ml_action=get-
article&print=true&ml_issueid=BR0707)

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quizbiz
It is interesting to note that many self-made billionaires did in fact go to
college, they just didn't graduate. Furthermore, many of those billionaires
that didn't finish college were accepted to top tier institutions.

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rfurmani
Unjustified or incorrect statements: * Want to become a billionaire? Up your
chances by dropping out of college * mathematical prowess is hereditary (‽) *
Failure early on is a necessary condition for success (a recent article here
statistically showed that failure does not increase the chance of success in
startups)

Also, and this point has been brought up many times in these comments, a
number of the billionares began their work at a time when college degrees did
not matter as much.

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meterplech
I think the idea of dropping out of college fits in with the general startup
mold. Startups are disruptive, they do not follow the traditional path of
what's out there. Likewise, dropping out of college and leaving that safety
net is certainly disruptive. It takes a special kind of person to do that.
Also, it is unclear how many of these billionaires came from the world of tech
startups, inherently more disruptive than say, finance.

~~~
ks
_"Some of the most common professions among the parents of American
billionaires (for whom we could find the information) were engineer,
accountant and small-business owner."_

It seems to me that most of them had a safety net - their parents.

~~~
thismat
That's quite possible for a lot of people. I never deemed this an option at
all though, I just wouldn't admit I couldn't do it.

I paid my bills, lived frugally (but happily) and basically just...lived on
less than I made?

So, were these last few traits something my parents graciously bestowed upon
me? Sadly, no.

My parents were frugal to a point, but not cheap. Budgeting wasn't something I
really learned the concept of in depth, until I went out into the cold.
Avoiding credit wasn't something my parents did, though they never abused it
or amassed huge amounts of debt, and could always pay everything off (I didn't
know or care about this at the time).

The thing my parents gave me was a longing for independence, success, and the
knowledge that if there is ever something I need to learn, nothing stops me
from learning it.

Sometimes, no matter which route a person chooses, they will succeed just
because of their willpower, hardwork, sacrifice and perseverance.

Consequently I think money is wasted on studies like this, each individual
finds their own path to success, even if similar.

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quisxt
80% of self-made billionaire's completed college, as opposed to 27% of the US
adult population (US Census data). What exactly is your point?

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hs
i was reading "the china study" and there's a part about gene. a disease grows
about 3% / year while population maybe <1%, conclusion? gene alone cannot
possibly be responsible for the disease

so maybe it's better to compare degree_rate and billionaire_rate ... if
#degree-holders grow by 10%/annum while #billionaires grow by 2%/annum then
college alone cannot possibly be responsible for billionaire

ok, i'll say it ... college is overrated, over time degrees worth less due to
supply/demand

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tsally
Don't confuse a symptom for a cause. If going to college would have helped the
20%, they would have gone to go to college. Similarly, if it would have helped
to skip college, the 80% would have had no qualms about doing so. The cause
here is the motivation and skill of a winner that every self-made billionaire
has. You're glorifying a symptom by idolizing dropping out of college.

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intellectronica
That's not that surprising, if you take into consideration that the percentage
is still higher than the average in the population. It's only interesting if
you assume that going to college is a must for any success in life, but that
position is so ridiculous that you don't need any real data to refute it.

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vaksel
Here is something I wonder. Since most of the billionaires are old farts...how
many of them didn't go to college, because it wasn't as big of a requirement
back then.

I think the dropout # is more important than the "never went to college".
Because those are the people who saw success early on.

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jimwalker
20% of self-made billionaires parents hated them between the ages of 17 and
23.

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ojbyrne
Hmm, that means 80% did start or complete college. Sounds like a no-brainer to
me.

~~~
ks
And it only says that 80% _completed_ college. It doesn't say how many of the
20% _started_ their college education. Many internet billionaires met in
college and dropped out because they had a great idea (of course, most of the
other drop outs probably didn't succeed, but that's another story).

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hs
it does not mean college 'enable' the 80% counterpart

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comster
What'd you learn in school? no, seriously.

