
Carmakers Plot a Future Without Google and Apple - happy-go-lucky
http://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2016/11/17/carmakers-plot-a-future-without-google-and-apple/#540d4c631079
======
jamesmcintyre
I've always imagined how this industry would play out is that Google would
supply the "android for car" autonomous tech and they'd eventually take ~70%
of the market while others like Tesla use their own in-house tech. This is the
first article I've come across that posits otherwise and it is an interesting
proposition.

Maybe there will be more categories of tech for the autonomous car than we
think. Maybe the automakers do agree upon a standard which would allow an
interface to certain high-level data (ie not the raw sensor data but the
predicted path of the car) to a "guest OS". So the automakers would have their
own linux-based proprietary OS running for autonomy. Then the automaker
decides which user-interaction operating system they want to provide with the
car. This OS would run maybe in a container of sorts. So Apple & Google could
offer up their Car OS to provide the user experience. Really this is sort of
what we're already seeing with Apple's car play which I assume is also likely
"sandboxed" away from the actual car's "operations OS". Maybe, then, there's
also a sound OS provided by Bose, human interface OS provided by Microsoft's
Kinect or Amazon's Alexa, etc.

Obviously the idea of a single, tightly-integrated car OS seems more likely
due to the players in this space wanting to retain as much control as possible
but maybe we're wrong- maybe the automakers see a future where their bare-
metal operational OS will remain throughout the life of the vehicle but
customers can upgrade every other facet such as the "user-interaction" OS.

Picture this: I buy a 2019 Toyota Sedan, while at the dealership the salesmen
tell me to launch the Apple Car app bundled on my phone to scan a qr code on
the car's display. The app then let's me choose between multiple tiers of Car
subscriptions, I choose one and the car display shows "Configuring Apple Car
Premium Over The Air...". However, I could've performed all those steps with
Google Android as well to choose Android as my Car OS.

The likely way this plays out is that automakers will try their best to
provide a great UI OS and they'll all fall-short of the customer's
expectations for what makes great software usability. Then one automaker will
give choice to the consumers and a chance for Apple/Android to showcase their
OS's and if they provide a better experience the rest of the market will
follow suit.

