
An Electric Aviation Pioneer Who Aims to Crack the Pilot Shortage - prostoalex
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2019/10/24/bye-electric-pilot-shortage/#48069f3553ea
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blunte
It's not so much the cost of learning to fly that is dissuading people from
becoming pilots. Yes it's much more expensive than it was just 20 years ago,
and way more expensive than 40 years ago... but the biggest problem was that
until these current pilots started retiring, it was actually a slow climb
(pardon the pun) to get to a good flying job.

You had to start with whatever small regional airline or cargo company you
could get to accumulate hours, and eventually you could get into the airlines.
Until the last 10 years or so, there wasn't really a shortage of pilots in the
airlines.

Plus, as we know, non-executive salaries haven't been keeping pace with
inflation. And perks and retirement benefits have been shrinking. So it's less
attractive now to become a commercial pilot than it was 20+ years ago.

A couple of other factors are also involved. 1. The US economy has shifted
away from trade/skilled jobs and into information jobs. 2. Many pilots of the
past learned to fly in the military; but since WW2, we've had less and less
need for pilots - especially now that we are moving a lot of activity to
remotely piloted drones.

I expect that as commercial pilot jobs become more attractive (due to not
enough applicants), the salaries may go up, and the interest will redevelop.

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throwaway5752
Pilots make 6 figures, don't they?

~~~
cameldrv
Eventually. First you have to pay for your training. If you want to work for a
major airline you also need a college degree. After that, you become a flight
instructor and earn $20-30k and rack up some flight time. You then need to
spend several years coming up with 1500 hours of flight time, either through
instructing, flying charters, or simply paying to rent a plane. If you need to
pay to rent or buy the plane, you're looking at $80k minimum to get buy the
final 1000 hours.

Assuming the economy is doing well, you can go get a regional airline job.
Today it will pay $40k to start, but if the economy falters, there will be an
excess of pilots, and those that are lucky enough to have an airline job will
be getting $25k like they used to.

Finally, after some years of this, you'll move to a major airline and start
finally making good money. All the while, you're often away from your family,
living an unhealthy lifestyle, exposed to radiation, and if you ever have any
significant illness or require most any medication, your career is over, and
you have to apply all of those jet pilot skills to something else.

If you're 18 and starting your training today, you have 47 years to
retirement, and it's very likely that less than half way through your career,
automation and remote piloting will have advanced enough that many planes will
only require one pilot, causing a collapse in the demand for airline pilots
and wrecking salaries.

But hey, you get to fly for a living!

~~~
mantap
There's no chance that automation will advance such that you only need one
pilot. The pilots job is to babysit the machine, hardware and software. And
you need two for the obvious reason that sometimes one is incapacitated. More
complex software _increases_ the need for two pilots.

~~~
cameldrv
Airbus is openly working on it. [https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/28/airbus-
pushing-ahead-in-tech...](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/28/airbus-pushing-
ahead-in-tech-as-it-aims-for-single-pilot-planes-cto.html)

If you go back to the 1940s, some big aircraft had five flight crew for long-
range flights. They progressively dropped the navigator, then the flight
engineer in the 80s, because computers could do their jobs. Many small
business jets already can fly legally with a single pilot.

When automation reaches the point that the computer can fly the entire flight,
and the pilot merely needs to monitor, as we are close to with this new Garmin
autoland system, the pilot incapacitation argument for having two crew members
goes away. It's inevitable and just a matter of time.

~~~
throw0101a
There are some strange corner cases out there:

> _Already requested and had the data linked chart for our landing weight sent
> up to the aircraft: we require 5,671 feet on a wet runway, good braking,
> zero tailwind. Each knot of tailwind adds 150 to the distance required, so
> even one knot of tailwind exceeds the runway length._

* [https://jethead.wordpress.com/2014/12/13/flying-a-jet-in-the...](https://jethead.wordpress.com/2014/12/13/flying-a-jet-in-the-los-angeles-storms-december-12-2014/)

~~~
cameldrv
Interesting story, but the FMS already can calculate the required distances in
various scenarios. I'm not aware of an FMS that can do the what-if type
analysis automatically about the range of acceptable wind directions and
speeds, but that can certainly be built.

Instead of the F/O flying the approach, he could simply have let the autopilot
do the whole thing and focus himself, as he did, on the strategic aspects of
the flight.

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vpribish
Forbes is garbage, don't post their articles here. This is a fawning,
analysis-free piece that reads like a long-form press release

~~~
JackPoach
Not just Forbes. This has happened to Entrepreneur, Newsweek and many others.

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goatinaboat
Wages and conditions in the industry suggest if anything there is a glut of
pilots. The pilots that do have jobs work on short term contracts with no job
security. It is very much a buyer’s market with a few legacy exceptions such
as BA where the union is very strong.

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quattrofan
This whole mandatory retirement after is ridiculous and needs to end. If
someone is physically able, and still had good mental capacity as well as
senses why stop them? Looking at how out of shape most millennials are your
average 65yr old is probably a better bet!

~~~
khrbrt
ok boomer

This may seem fine on the micro level -- an individual working into their 70s,
but is a disaster at the macro level -- a significant part of a workforce
suddenly in their 80s.

Senior workers tend to hold senior positions. A 65-er retiring frees a slot
for someone in their 40s to move up, which frees a slot for someone in their
20s to take their prior role. Fewer retirements slow advancement for the rest
of the workforce and drives out younger workers with skill to seek their
fortunes elsewhere.

When that cadre of octogenarians finally starts dropping, the organization
will be rushing to fill senior roles with mid-level employees, leaving a big
gap to fill for the middle and entry levels.

