
Five Technologies That Will Rock Your World - known
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/13/business/dealbook/five-technologies-that-will-rock-your-world.html
======
nathan_long
> The Flying Car

Oh, sure. Why use enough just enough energy to propel yourself forward to your
destination when you can _also_ use a massive amount of extra energy to fight
gravity the whole way?

> capable of flying above congested roads...

If flying cars became popular, this advantage would be destroyed by the
congested skies.

> will require a new kind of air traffic control

Boy howdy. And create new categories of horrific accidents. Let's not build a
world where a drunk driver can plow through the roof of a school, shall we?

A more sensible answer to traffic is 1) more remote work and 2) better mass
transportation.

~~~
no1youknowz
You kinda realise we are on a technical site right? This answer is wholly
dismissive of where technology is going. How about the flipside?

> The Flying Car

New technologies such as metallic hydrogen are on the horizon. Coupled with
better advances in battery tech, we may see the advent of a hybrid approach
where VTOL is used via battery and propulsion with hydrogen.

That said. Flying Cars may be mandated so that it's for use intra-cities or
states. But then localised will be for autonomous driving.

Having synergistic travel mediums will allow people to travel further and
faster. Imagine having flying cars, hyperloop, autonomous driving and spaceX
to combine to get you from A to B over a great distance in a matter of hours?
All running on clean energy?

More importantly, all AI driven without the need for human intervention?

> will require a new kind of air traffic control

Sure, AI driven. There's nothing wrong with having an AI that ensures cars fly
amongst already agreed routes.

> "Boy howdy. And create new categories of horrific accidents. Let's not build
> a world where a drunk driver can plow through the roof of a school, shall
> we?"

How about No? How about having AI actually fly the car? We already have planes
which go on autopilot for most of the journey. AI for flying cars should
actually be a whole lot easier, than driving on the road.

There will be no drunk driver, because there will be no stick.

If you actually look at all the differing technologies that are coming out.
Graphene, AI, Chemical processes, Battery Tech, etc, etc, etc. It's not
difficult to see the next 5 or 10 years being a whole lot different to now.

~~~
mikestew
_How about having AI actually fly the car?_

In other words, I'm not going to see flying cars in my lifetime, then? I mean,
from my POV, that is some serious hand-waving, at least until we get some
demonstrable AI in consumer products that's anywhere near what I'd trust to
drive a car, let alone fly something.

~~~
no1youknowz
> I'm not going to see flying cars in my lifetime

How old are you now? 20, 30, 40? Given an average life of lets say 80. That's
40 years. So much could happen. Are you serious?

> at least until we get some demonstrable AI in consumer products that's
> anywhere near what I'd trust to drive a car

Google started the self driving concept back in 2009. 16 years later, here we
are. Also, that's half of what's left of a potential lifetime.

Waymo is testing on public roads now [1].

Here's an article details the other competitors timelines [2]:

GM: Rumors of self-driving vehicles by 2018

Ford: Truly self-driving vehicles by 2021

Honda: Self-driving on the highway by 2020

Toyota: Self-driving on the highway by 2020

Renault-Nissan: 2020 for autonomous cars in urban conditions, 2025 for truly
driverless cars

Volvo: Self-driving on the highway by 2021

Hyundai: Highway by 2020, urban driving by 2030

Daimler: Nearly fully autonomous by early 2020s

Fiat-Chrysler: CEO expects there to be some self driving vehicles on the road
by 2021

BMW: Fully self-driving vehicles possible by 2021 Tesla: End of 2017

Lets say, that all the manufacturers slip and it's only until 2030 that it's a
viable consumer product. That's still 26 years it took to develop. Way way
less than half a lifetime.

Now if we extrapolate all that AI and knowledge and apply it to:

[3] - Uber enlists help from NASA in bid to launch flying taxis by 2020

then [4] - [5] - [6] and probably more companies who are racing to make this a
reality. Even if it took them 20 years to do so.

You'd still see it in your life-time.

\-----

So please. I'd love to hear a rebuttal.

[1]: [https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/nov/07/google-
wa...](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/nov/07/google-waymo-
announces-fully-autonomous-ride-hailing-service-uber-alphabet)

[2]: [https://venturebeat.com/2017/06/04/self-driving-car-
timeline...](https://venturebeat.com/2017/06/04/self-driving-car-timeline-
for-11-top-automakers/)

[3]: [https://news.sky.com/story/uber-enlists-help-from-nasa-in-
bi...](https://news.sky.com/story/uber-enlists-help-from-nasa-in-bid-to-
launch-flying-taxis-by-2020-11119777)

[4]: [https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/21/electric-
fl...](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/21/electric-flying-car-
lilium-google-uber-vtol-jet-taxi)

[5]: [https://www.wired.com/story/delorean-aerospace-flying-
car/](https://www.wired.com/story/delorean-aerospace-flying-car/)

[6]: [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/17/flying-car-
compan...](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/17/flying-car-company-
aeromobil-says-radical-concept-vehicle-will/)

~~~
mikestew
_How old are you now? 20, 30, 40?_

Try again, Sonny. :-)

 _So please. I 'd love to hear a rebuttal._

My rebuttal is that I've walked this earth for a number of decades, and the
track record of such predictions has been dismal. We've been "almost there"
for decades. Tesla can't even accurately predict when they'll ship you a Model
3, and you're just going to take the word of Tesla, et. al. on when this AI-
run technological miracle will happen?

But if you want a rebuttal, here it is: you list car companies that claim to
have self-driving cars in the next three to four years. And yet there isn't a
single company that has produced anything on a smaller scale (Siri/OKGoogle,
home robot, or the like) AI/ML-related that has me thinking, "you know, I
could imagine this expanding to something that could drive a car in a few
years." Nothing, not a single product. If you have something along those lines
that you think would fit the bill, that I can walk down to the store and buy
_today_ , I'd reconsider my position (slightly).

But that's cars, for which we have existing infrastructure for routes,
refueling, and traveller services. And despite my pessimism, I expect self-
driving cars in which I can take a nap on the way to happen within ten years.
But flying cars? The thing that we can't even make for practical use even if
you want to pilot it yourself? _And_ we want to slap an AI control on it? With
very little infrastructure to support the idea? Yup, I will be a pile of stone
cold ashes before that happens.

But I hope I'm wrong about the "in my lifetime" part. Because if I am wrong,
then I get a flying car _and_ I'll have lived way past the point that I
expected to. :-)

~~~
no1youknowz
> Try again, Sonny. :-)

Well, it's all makes sense as to why you are so pessimistic.

You sound quite a lot like my Dad. He's in his 60s and I'm in my 40s. We have
differing view points.

To him, technology is slow and things will take literally multi-decades.
Because it did for him, that's how he experienced it.

Whereas for me, we've gone from iPhone 3 to X in a blink of an eye. We've gone
from DeepMind creating AI to solve Go, to it training itself. Technology is
starting to exponentially increase faster and faster. There will be
breakthroughs coming that some of us won't even be aware of and that will lead
to changes that affect everyone.

But one final thing. Even if you are 60, you still have another good 20 years.
You may just see it yet!

~~~
mikestew
_Well, it 's all makes sense as to why you are so pessimistic._

Why, because I was writing software professionally before you were born? Maybe
your Dad and I sound a lot alike because we’ve heard that young person saying
something about wolves for decades. And your argument to the contrary? Your
Dad and I have been hearing almost _those_ exact words (different examples, of
course) for decades as well.

You seem to think it’s different this time. Maybe is, maybe it isn’t. But
perhaps you can understand my skepticism. Any article of “predictions from 20
years ago”, from any time period, will probably back me up on this.

~~~
no1youknowz
Well, now is different than before.

Before:

\- technology was at it's very infancy

\- the number of capable engineers very small

\- ai the glimmer in engineers eyes

Now:

\- technology at the stage it's bearing fruit of the next iteration

\- the number of engineers is vast and among several companies

\- ai is here to do narrow tasks well

One thing that this period has, that the 60s didn't. Is that someone can leave
university and do something so radical, it leaves the big guys speechless. A
case in point, the solid lidar. Or look at George Hotz with his self driving
company.

You couldn't do that in the 60s.

Or what about jumping another 20/30 years ahead?

\- Quantum computers will be available

\- General AI may be around

\- Self Driving cars, flying cars and HyperLoop variants will be around.

\- SpaceX inter-planetary transport may be around.

\- Mars missions a reality.

As you go down this list. It's not just 1 company or the government that is
doing the research or product. It's several companies all competing with each
other and pouring Tens of Billions or dollars into the industry.

Those are the differences to then and now.

Trust me. If 20 years ago or 40 years ago. You'd said that we'd have two stage
rockets both landing back. You'd be laughed out of the room. Nasa engineers
said it was impossible... How things change!

Anyway we can go round in circles. Like my Dad, I doubt you will change your
mind. But like I tell him, if you reach 90. You'll see a lot of changes!

~~~
mikestew
_Anyway we can go round in circle_

Yeah, I think we’ve kinda reached that point. I mean, we’re going to have to
wait twenty years to see who’s right. At which point, when you still don’t
have your flying car, you’ll be arguing with someone younger about how cold
fusion won’t happen in _your_ lifetime. ;-)

No matter, though, as I would be the most tickled person on earth if/when I’m
shown to be wrong. Because wrong though I might be, I get to have a flying
car!

------
XR0CSWV3h3kZWg
I found this fairly disappointing.

> A.I. Health Care

Actually near to affecting real customers. For some narrow tasks (e.g.
melanoma detection) we can start to get the cost down to ~the cost of
harvesting the tissue. More and more of these tasks could start to become
cheaper and start taking more of the guess work out of Health care.

> Conversational Computing

Other than usable phone trees I haven't seen success here. Lots of work was
poured into this last year and very little really lasted.

> Mind Control

The non invasive stuff just isn't that interesting and the invasive stuff is
so far away from even the horror stories of early adopters.

> The Flying Car

If there isn't wide adoption then this is just a toy for the rich, maybe it
could improve some emergent care situations if it's more usable than
helicopters for hospitals. If there is wide adoption it's a public safety
nightmare. Living with cars that are stuck to the ground is dangerous enough.

> The Quantum Computer

There are many extremely hard problems between now and quantum computers
affecting people's lives beyond breaking RSA. Quantum computers aren't a
panacea, they aren't better at every problem, they won't recreate the amazing
doubling of power per cost that existed for most of computing history.

~~~
DubiousPusher
Yeah, this is a pretty superficial grabbed from the headlines understanding of
technology.

For God's sake how can you leave off gene therapy. For three decades the hopes
and dreams of nearly every person affected by an incurable disease have
lingered on gene therapy. Now we're finally there. This year the first two
treatments have been approved by the FDA with more in stage III trials and it
doesn't even get a mention?

Also, once you can watch TV while your car drives you, no one is going to care
about the time savings of flying short distances. You'll probably be grateful
that in the event of a rare crash you won't have the added 9.8 m/s/s of
acceleration to worry about.

~~~
XR0CSWV3h3kZWg
Yeah If I was making the list it'd include CRISPR, GMO foods, autonomous
vehicles and VR/AR (especially for mobility challenged people, if I were
hospital bound I'd be clamoring for it)

------
pascalxus
With a society that's still fighting to achieve the bottom layer of Maslow's
hierarch of needs, the most meaningful types of innovation are: housing and
transportation.

Flying cars, or some kind of easy flying transportation would vastly benefit
society: we greatly underestimate it. If you can triple the distance a person
can travel in the same amount of time, you nearly 9-tuple your employment
opportunities. Companies would have nearly 9-tuple the number of candidates.

Unlike land based solutions, sky based solutions can go directly from point to
point without needing to follow an arbitrary arc on the ground.

And best of all, you'll have much more cost effective housing options. With
housing being as bad as it is on the west coast, I bet people would pay big
money to go farther and faster.

~~~
Gys
Wouldn't flying imply a much higher energy usage then driving ? Because then
weight is carried by the roads and only one directional force is needed ?

And flying being faster implies even more energy because moving slowly is
generally more efficient ?

Especially on shorter distances I wonder how the energy needs compare for
flying vs driving.

~~~
TylerE
Yes, however...

Flying is much more SPACE efficient. With good computer control you could
stack hundreds of "roads" worth of capacity vertically.

Can save time (and thus indirectly energy) by flying directly from A-to-B.
This is ignoring the time gained by the likely much faster cruising speeds, as
well.

Flying doesn't have to be THAT inefficien, either. Plenty of general aviation
aircraft, especially slower ones, can achieve MPG that is really not that bad.
The Mooney M20, for instance, cruises at 180mph and burns 10 gallons an hour -
so 18mpg. Not bad given the speed! A car going that first will be consuming
much more fuel.

~~~
jessriedel
To add to your last paragraph for folks who find this surprising: If you take
a airplane and let the area of the wings go to infinity while taking their
wing mass and thickness to zero, the vehicle would expend arbitrarily little
energy maintaining altitude; it's basically a giant, extremely slowly falling
parachute. Real-world wings do not achieve this of course, but not nearly as
much energy needs to be expended compared during cruise as (say) simply
hovering by pointing the engine at the ground (if your engine was even
powerful enough to do that).

------
post_break
I just want better bike lanes, better mass transit, and less dependence on
planes to get around in the US. Those three things would rock my world.

~~~
thomastjeffery
> less dependence on planes to get around in the US

Why? How?

~~~
XR0CSWV3h3kZWg
Presumably high speed train.

------
CodeSheikh
My money is on A.I. Health Care. It is not about displacing jobs of existing
health professionals, but it will expedite the diagnostic process for many
patients. For example, AI doing 70% of the analysis and a human technician
gives thumbs up or down on. Fast forward 10 years and all of the analysis data
aggregated can act as a continuous training model to improve accuracy. Because
human anatomy is not going to change and AI analysis will get better with
time. It is definitely an area worth considering for VC to look for investment
opportunities.

------
Gys
> What if Alexa was truly conversational, if you could have a back and forth
> dialogue?

This will make our current social media options look like childplay. Its the
end game of it all: Facebook, Google, Amazon as everybody's best friend. Why
talk to other people ? The person that understands you the best is always with
you. Always making jokes, telling good stories, making all these good
suggestions on how to live your life and spend your money...

~~~
659087
If products like Google Allo took off with their "response suggestions", we
could just stop talking all together and let Google have conversations with
itself on our behalf. This seems to be the future these companies are aiming
to drive us towards.

------
thisisit
These things are so far off in the future that it is impossible to know when
they will end up being useful. Back in 2013 I read this article:

[http://www.businessinsider.in/markets/the-8-game-changing-
te...](http://www.businessinsider.in/markets/the-8-game-changing-technologies-
forcing-the-business-world-to-evolve/slidelist/21745899.cms)

I really liked the presentation where they not only talked about the
technology but also looked at some data points.

Since then I try to read all articles about world changing technology but most
of them are fluff pieces gushing about stuff which might not happen in the
short term. It is difficult to get good articles on this topic.

Does anyone know any such grounded articles published this year?

~~~
maxerickson
Machine learning is already in use to aid radiologists and the flying car will
still be a stupid idea in 20 years (barring low cost antigravity
technology...), so the article is pretty uneven.

------
Top19
All of this stuff is cool and there is definitely support in both academia and
industry for all of this, but I think predictions about how soon it will
arrive are off-base by a lot.

What if political and social disruption increases? What if the measures we’ve
used to gauge progress over the last decade are all wrong because they were
based on massive amounts of capital inflows from the Federal Reserve?

I cringe typing this because I feel like some paranoid militia-person in the
early 90’s, but still I think technological progress could easily be hindered
as society looks to make social and political progress for a period of time
instead.

------
personjerry
If there's anything to take away from this article, it's that machine learning
is the future. I feel like this articles says:

1\. Machine learning for healthcare

2\. Machine learning for language

3\. Machine learning and brain-computer interface

4\. Machine learning and flying cars

5\. Quantum computing

------
revel
This article is about revolutionary technology that we all expect will show up
at some point, but when that will happen is uncertain. I don't think we're all
that close to true conversational computing -- I think that would herald the
dawn of true AI and we're nowhere near that. How close are we to quantum
computing? Hype stories about quantum computing were a regular fixture for the
better part of a decade but I haven't read one in a while. Are we
significantly closer or did progress flatline?

------
cJ0th
> Think of it this way: A quantum computer could instantly crack the
> encryption that protects the world’s most private data.

How can they be so sure that no one uses symmetric encryption algorithms? I
get that this article is meant for lay people but that does not make it
alright to throw around false superlatives.

~~~
goialoq
The article is complete garbage.

[https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/)

"If you take just one piece of information from this blog: Quantum computers
would not solve hard search problems instantaneously by simply trying all the
possible solutions at once."

------
umanwizard
Can anyone explain why the helicopter (which exists IRL) is not considered a
flying car?

~~~
kgilpin
Helicopters are loud, expensive to operate and maintain, difficult to fly,
slower than airplanes, and crash more often.

But, they are much more flexible in terms of where they can land. This “point
to point” aspect is what people really mean by “flying car”.

If you had a quiet, inexpensive, safe, self-flying, small helicopter then I
guess you’d have a flying car!

------
bearbearbear
You can't miss these thirteen clickbait titles that about one weird trick and
the internet is going crazy over it right now!

