
Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer? - hello_1234
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3556998
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perl4ever
It seems to me mathematically certain that it will.

A week ago there were 170,000 cases, now there are 337,000.

337000*(337/170)^14.5 is roughly 7 billion.

14.5 weeks from now is July 1st.

So either it diminishes or it's over by July, guaranteed.

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alexanderhorl
This is not taking into account the slowdown of spread due to containment
measures.

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op03
Also not taking into account in many parts of the world there is no such thing
as Flu Season.

And no one knows why.

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jwilk
Could you elaborate on that? Which parts?

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rogerthis
I'm not much aware of details, but it seems it's thriving here in Brazil.

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ganeshkrishnan
Likewise in Australia. I suspect this study hints that person to person
transmission is not affected but that the virus has lower viability via
surface spread in hot and humid climates.

Australia is much more densely packed in Urban areas than other countries like
India and in spite of favorable weather conditions the person to person
transmission is high. They haven't enforced the shelter in place yet

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runawaybottle
I am very confused at the shockingly low cases in India, and the Indochina
region.

Either it really is the climate or we’re talking zero testing and a fiasco
that’s gonna engulf that region soon.

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blackrock
Perhaps because India is not testing?

If you don’t test, then you cannot confirm someone has the virus. Thus, your
confirmed cases remains low.

India has not shown up on the map yet, but I suspect that the virus is picking
up steam. Every week, the numbers slowly increase. And by the time someone is
confirmed with the virus, then they probably already infected 10 to 20 other
people.

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MR4D
Houston has high humidity, and will make it into the 90’s this week. If this
is true, it should slow down here before someplace colder, right?

I would presume that if it doesn’t, then this summer assumption is not
relevant.

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hello_1234
I think we should encourage people to turn off their Air Conditioners,
especially in indoor places like malls and bars where people gather. ACs
reduce both temperature and humidity and make a more favorable environment for
the virus.

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hello_1234
Nytimes article: [https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/warm-weather-
coron...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/warm-weather-
coronavirus.html)

Some research papers from the past about SARS-CoronaVirus:
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22312351](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22312351)

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fernly
From the abstract, I gather this is a solid "maybe, maybe not".

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xbhdhdhd
We in the southern hemisphere are heading into winter. Not ideal

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sbmthakur
I think we will only have a definite answer by May/June for this question. The
close cousin of nCov, the SARS Cov-1, had started retreating back in June
2003.

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matt_s
An unscientific observation about "summer" is in the west, schools aren't in
session. That might be a very large contributor to the spread of all viruses.

I think there are too many variables to approach this scientifically and
people won't really care how it diminishes. Just do everything possible to
limit the spread while scientists formulate a vaccine of sorts.

Suggesting that a seasonal change could even be considered dangerous because
it may lead people to believe that containment is no longer necessary. It's
only "summer" for roughly half the planet, right?

