

Common sense and statistics - svtrent
http://andrewgelman.com/2014/12/25/common-sense-statistics/

======
markisus
I don't understand how the author's estimate is justified. He wants to take
the probability that the margin is within 2 million and then divide by two
million? Maybe he is appealing to some limiting argument? But we are
presumably dealing with a discrete random variable.

~~~
Machow
I think the algorithm he is suggesting is..

1\. Get empirical probability vote is within 2 million from previous N
elections. (so, 1 if it is within 2 mill, and 0 of not, then average). Use it
as p(vote is within 2 million). 2\. Assume that if a vote is within 2 million,
then the exact number of votes is uniform between 0 and 2 million. Then, the
probability of a tie, given that the vote is within 2 million is p(vote within
w million) / 2 million.

