
Gene drive used to turn all female mosquitos sterile - bovermyer
https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/09/controlling-mosquitos-with-a-gene-drive-that-makes-females-infertile/
======
nicktelford
Everyone questioning the wisdom of eliminating "all mosquitos": only a very
small number of mosquito sub-species are capable of transmitting malaria to
humans. The plan is to target those sub-species only. Other forms of mosquitos
would fill in the gaps in the food-chain.

~~~
imron
> The plan is to target those sub-species only.

How does the saying go?

The best laid plans of mice and men always work out exactly as predicted and
never suffer from unintended consequences.

Just like cane toads and prickly pear.

~~~
Jedd
> Just like cane toads and prickly pear.

Happily we're (I'm speaking on behalf of people way smarter than myself)
getting much, _much_ better at this.

An article on Vox, discussed here 4 months ago, is just one poignant example
of the level of introspection and caution being exercised by everyone involved
in these trials:

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17214676](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17214676)

"Kevin Esvelt wants me to know that if I fuck up this article, 25,000 children
could end up dead."

The whole article is a tremendously compelling read.

I'm usually pretty wary of the whole 'we've come a long way since ...', but in
this realm we really do appear to have done exactly that. The 1920/1930's
attitudes could best be described as incautious (more accurately as brazen,
cowboy, insouciant, etc).

Cane toads and prickly pear (and tiger pear and heliotrope and rabbits and
hudsons pear and ...) are pests whose impact are nearly impossible to describe
to people outside the ecosystems impacted by them, but the people dealing with
these things are so much better informed than the lab techs of a hundred years
ago _and_ know that if they fuck it up, there'll be a wiki page about them
that'll last another hundred years.

------
denzil_correa
A recent study has shown that removal of malaria carrying mosquitoes is
unlikely to affect our ecosystem [0].

> Lead author Dr Tilly Collins, from the Centre for Environmental Policy at
> Imperial, said: “As adults, An. gambiae mosquitoes are small, hard to catch,
> most mobile at night and not very juicy, so they are not a rewarding prey
> for both insect and vertebrate predators. Many do eat them -- sometimes
> accidentally -- but there is no evidence that they are a big or vital part
> of the diet of any other animal.

> “There is one curious jumping spider known as ‘the vampire spider’ that
> lives in homes around the shores of Lake Victoria and does have a fondness
> for female blood-fed mosquitoes. Resting blood-fed females are easy and more
> nutritious prey as they digest their blood meal, but this spider will
> readily eat other available mosquito species as opportunity arises.”

[0] [https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/187427/removing-
malariacarry...](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/187427/removing-
malariacarrying-mosquitoes-unlikely-affect-ecosystems/)

~~~
carapace
That's not the sort of thing science can prove.

~~~
myrryr
Sure it is, wipe them from one area, and leave the other one alone.

Compare the changed area to the control area.

------
Dowwie
Has anyone seen the movie "Children of Men"? I realize mosquitoes hardly, if
at all, share dna with people but my imagination immediately jumped to
wondering what if modified mosquitoes managed to spread their sterility to
humans? Mosquitos are nature's ideal assassin of mankind. Arming them with the
seeds of our despair would be a great misfortune.

~~~
gentaro
Agreed, if we make all females of their species sterile, who is to say that
the males won't cuck us and start mating with the females of our species? Any
female born from a mosquito/human coupling would likely be sterile as well.

~~~
gomox
I know joking is frowned upon in HN but you my friend deserve a pass.

~~~
Dowwie
my nonsensical comment deserves sarcasm

------
lwansbrough
I hope we’re right about mosquitoes. I recall that humans culled thousands of
elephants in the past because we were convinced it would solve desertification
in parts of Africa. Of course we were wrong.

~~~
awestroke
It's only malaria-transmitting mosquitoes, lots of other types of mosquito
will fill the void very quickly.

~~~
gldalmaso
Honest question, won't the microorganisms that actually cause the disease
adapt as well, perhaps jumping to another species of mosquito that is even
more in contact with humans?

Do they depend on a specific characteristic of certain species of mosquitoes
to thrive?

Is there zero chance that we won't end up spreading _more_ Malaria? Or end up
with something worse than Malaria?

~~~
tralarpa
Yes, could happen. The extermination of the host could put pressure on the
parasite and favor mutations that give them the ability to live in other
species of mosquitoes (which didn't happen in the past for whatever reason,
for example because the mosquitoes transmitting Malaria were competitors to
those other mosquitoes and displaced them).

We were not even able to predict the impact of some rabbits on the local
fauna. Now we want to play with genes.

~~~
clort
I'd say though, that if the mosquitoes die off in approximately 10 generations
then the parasites are likely to die with them rather than suddenly adapt
where they never did before

------
netgusto
Maybe an irrational fear, but how can we be absolutely sure (as in total
certainty) that this kind of manipulation cannot "jump" to another living
thing? Through mosquito bites, or by the mosquitoes being eaten by other
animals, or perhaps by another, more subtle way?

~~~
sudhirj
Have already commented elsewhere, but keep in mind that any gene mutation that
we try to enforce is already likely to have happened billions of times (DNA
changes at every instance of sexual reproduction, that's why we're not clones
of our parents, that's step 1 of evolution as well). If DNA changes in
parasites affect hosts, then this is already going to be happening for all
kinds of weird changes.

~~~
phkahler
This is not a mutation. It's an engineered change equivalent to many many
mutations - probably thousands at once. The probability that this would
randomly occur in nature is essentially zero.

~~~
ectospheno
While I agree I feel compelled to mention survivor bias. If this had happened
before to a species it is unlikely you'd know since they'd all be dead.

------
KZeillmann
This is an absolute no-brainer. Mosquitoes are flying disease vectors that
deserve to be eliminated. In the Americas, they're an annoyance, but in many
other parts of the world, they cause millions of deaths per year.

Many studies have shown that the extinction of mosquitoes would have little if
any ecological impact. I think if we had to worry about malaria in the
Americas, we'd have eliminated mosquitoes years ago, and this wouldn't even be
a question of whether or not we should do this.

~~~
RIMR
I think there still is an ecological impact, albeit a gruesome one, that still
needs to be considered.

Avoiding these millions of deaths per year will just increase populations in
parts of the world where resources are already scarce. It could lead to
ecological collapse, which very well could result in more human death all-at-
once than the Mosquitos were causing over time.

Now, I hate to advocate for letting people die - that's obviously something we
as a species aren't going to do - but I feel like we care about population
control for every single species but ourselves.

I worry that all of our modern medicine and championing of mother nature could
eventually be our demise in the long-term, even if all of these things provide
incredible benefits in the short-term.

We are, after all, just really smart animals. In any environment where a
single species eliminates all threats to itself, it becomes the biggest threat
to itself in terms of competing for resources. We are better at managing
resources than any other species, but to a fault. Eventually we'll bite off
more than we can chew.

I'm sure plenty of you will think that what I have said here is evil (even I
feel that way a little bit), but I think that this really could be a credible
threat to humanity ~200 year down the line.

~~~
emtel
What you're saying is horrific. If you think population control is important,
birth control, sex education, economic opportunities, and women's rights are
the answers. Letting other people die in misery (that you'll conveniently
never have to witness) due to some half thought out idea about what might
happen in hundreds of years is literally evil.

------
durbatuluk
As ecologist this scare me to death. Yesterday I was wondering where are the
predators who didn't fill this "empty niche" on cities? Dragonflies are
natural predators on environment but cannot stand urban micro climate.
Thinking something will fill a empty niche is a theory. Even "niche"
occupation is a theory which is show to not fit many places (amazon basin).

Some consequences are starting to be measured and we're turning our eyes
because we don't like bites? I got Dengue in two occasions and I really hate
these mosquitos but we must not be innocent to think there is no consequences
and nature will solve this for us.

> They found that the birds produced on average two chicks per nest after
> spraying, compared with three for birds at control sites. >
> [https://www.nature.com/news/2010/100721/full/466432a.html](https://www.nature.com/news/2010/100721/full/466432a.html)

Old compilation of papers about the consequences.

~~~
drngdds
>Some consequences are starting to be measured and we're turning our eyes
because we don't like bites?

Mosquitoes are the main transmission vector for malaria, which kills more than
half a million people every year. This is literally one of the biggest
problems in the world.

~~~
durbatuluk
I understand this very well but this happen only on low-income countries.

Here in Brazil zika, dengue and malaria are our everyday neighbors but most of
problem are from lack of basic sanitation.

One of my first studies was estimating the effect of proximity/density of
nearest forest at the neglected tropical diseases. Many people come with the
same conclusion: no effect for dengue and yellow fever. Later Brazilian
government started doing in-house visits trying to find small pounds of water
on backyards. The result was astonishing, most backyards are like paradise for
Aedes and similar mosquitos. Even water box are open and full of water for
children to play on hot days. Now the campaign is to not create spaces where
they can proliferate like: [http://infodengue.ikiw.com.br/2015/03/como-evitar-
dengue.htm...](http://infodengue.ikiw.com.br/2015/03/como-evitar-dengue.html)

Malaria is a special case because seems to not stand urban micro climate and
people at these regions cannot afford to move. I understand the case of half
million people losing their lives but realistic we will not stop using gene
modification only on Anopheles. Here in Brazil will target minimum three
genres of mosquito, any of them can cause diseases. Mosquitos also do not
respect political borders.

------
bryanrasmussen
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Screwfly_Solution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Screwfly_Solution)

------
memebox3f
What could possibly go wrong?

Seriously there needs to be public oversight on this research. It has a non
zero chance of significantly damaging the biosphere.

~~~
godelmachine
Do mosquitoes really serve any benign purpose in the biosphere with their
existence?

~~~
tfha
You are missing the point. Gene drive can do this to any species.

~~~
godelmachine
Now the clouds part. Mosquitoes are just the first guinea pigs to see if this
Gene Drive works as desired or not, am I right?

------
dasanman
I always get nervous when science start tampering with these things. Before
you know it, zombie apocalypse!

~~~
amelius
Things like this always make me think of:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox)

~~~
pure-awesome
I assume you are specifically referring to the Great Filter, yes?
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter)

~~~
jobigoud
Here is John Sotos paper "Biotechnology and the lifetime of technical
civilizations" where he looks at the ramifications of a society where any
resourceful person will have access to biotechnology capable of killing
millions and setting back civilization.

[https://arxiv.org/abs/1709.01149](https://arxiv.org/abs/1709.01149)

------
JoeAltmaier
We're already using massive spraying of insecticides. This has got to be less
damaging? People are going to do something, hard to stop them, this might be
the better alternative

------
nardi
Gene drive is terrifying. Has anyone done any research on a gene drive
“antidote” so we can fix it if we screw something up? A gene that would remove
the gene drive?

~~~
shadofx
You could isolate some mosquitoes in captivity and wait for the afflicted ones
to die off completely.

------
callesgg
If all the females are infertile there will be no offspring, how could a gene
drive work if it cant spread the genes?

~~~
ajuc
You make it a recessive trait. So only if both parents have it - it gets
activated and the child is infertile.

~~~
felipemnoa
I'm still wondering why we cannot do this to bugs like ticks or bed bugs?
Especially bed bugs, they are really hard to kill and spread like crazy.

~~~
phkahler
I'd guess that bedbugs exist in separate populations that don't inter-breed
much. Once house or hotel may harbor a population that exists in isolation and
can sometimes spread to new locations. Mosquitoes live outdoors, but still
don't constitute one large population.

If we were to try to eradicate them I think using multiple techniques at once
on a global scale would probably be necessary. You want to get them ALL. There
will always be that one place with a bedbug population in isolation waiting to
reintroduce them to the world.

~~~
felipemnoa
It would be nice If you could mail order a colony of genetically modified bed
bugs just like you can order pesticide. If this option were to exist even if
there was a resurgence you could easily fight them off with this new option.

Now that I think about it. This would make a great startup idea.

~~~
turtlecloud
The economic incentive of the startup would be to keep bedbugs alive. If they
eradicated bedbugs, the company would go bankrupt.

~~~
felipemnoa
Because of the points raised by phkahler I highly doubt that you could wipe
them out from the entire planet. Even if you did, you would still make lots of
money doing so.

------
alexc05
Is this a plan to eliminate mosquitoes? Are there concerns about eliminating
an entire tier of the food chain?

Surely this would be bad for the things that eat mosquitoes. And the things
that eat those things etc.

~~~
ForHackernews
Supposedly ecologists who have researched this believe that there are other
substitute insects (gnats, flies, etc) that will provide enough food that
removing mosquitoes would not be catastrophic.

I'm a little dubious myself, but I do hate mosquito bites, and I don't even
live in a malaria zone.

~~~
macintux
There are an estimated 100 _billion_ brine flies in the Great Salt Lake
ecosystem. I’m confident there will be insects to fill the void.

(I don’t mean to sound blasé, especially given the environmental pressures
facing so many insects, but I won’t shed a tear for mosquitos.)

------
mdimec4
Driving entire animal spicies into extinction is a wrong.

------
lwhi
One step closer to a Handmaid's Tale.

Blessed be the fruit ..

~~~
3d-avid
May the Lord open.

------
billynbn
How likely is it this could turn into a children of men situation if the
delivery method becomes trivial?

