
Andreessen: VR will be “1,000” times bigger than AR - mindgam3
https://techcrunch.com/2019/01/05/marc-andreessen-audio-will-be-titanically-important-and-vr-will-be-1000-times-bigger-than-ar/
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rococode
I think this impression has a lot to do with current implementations of VR and
AR. Most people who've tried VR probably agree that it's already a unique
experience. Even without state of the art hardware, it _feels_ different than
anything you've ever experienced before.

AR devices aren't quite there yet. I've tried Magic Leap, HoloLens, etc. VR
and AR both use clunky headsets, but while VR immerses you, allowing you to
almost forget the headset is there, AR merely augments your normal senses
(obviously). This means that the presence of the headset and screen is much
more constantly noticeable, and it really detracts from the experience. I
think if someone comes up with an AR device that isn't as intrusive it will be
a game changer.

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karmakaze
_[...] 1 percent of people on Earth live in a place where they wake up every
morning and think, Wow, there are so many interesting things to see. So for
everyone who doesn’t already live on a college campus or in Silicon Valley or
in a major other city, the new environments we’re going to be able to create
in VR will inherently be much more interesting_

I never thought of VR as people pretending to live others' normal lives. Like
in video games, we don't actually want to be real life soldiers. We just want
to do something different and entertaining or challenging. This is perhaps
even more true for the 1% who could/have already done everything there is to
do in the physical world.

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mindgam3
Riiight. Because the market for immersive escapism (video games, Hollywood,
etc) is so much bigger than the market for dealing with mundane reality
(smartphones). Good luck with that prognosis.

Andreessen’s point about audio being “titanically” important is well taken,
however. It is indeed an under utilized information channel with all the focus
going to optical displays.

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rococode
> Because the market for immersive escapism (video games, Hollywood, etc) is
> so much bigger than the market for dealing with mundane reality
> (smartphones)

I wasn't sure what the actual comparison looked like so I found some numbers
to confirm. Just a quick search so sources aren't great.

Video game industry at $137.9b, expected to hit $180.1b next year [1]

Movie industry valued at $80.98b in 2016 [2], consistent $12b annual box
office [3]

Smartphone sales at $458b in 2017 [4]

Although with declines in smartphone sales this year and high quality games
ramping up, I wouldn't be surprised to see the gap close in the next few
years, assuming smartphones continue the trend of not making innovations worth
upgrading for every year or two.

[1] [https://venturebeat.com/2018/04/30/newzoo-global-games-
expec...](https://venturebeat.com/2018/04/30/newzoo-global-games-expected-to-
hit-180-1-billion-in-revenues-2021/)

[2] [https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-
analysis/movies-e...](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-
analysis/movies-entertainment-market)

[3] [https://www.the-numbers.com/market/](https://www.the-numbers.com/market/)

[4] [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-13/how-
globa...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-13/how-global-
smartphone-sales-growth-ground-to-a-halt-quicktake)

~~~
mindgam3
Thanks for doing the research. Even with smartphone sales peaking, and
assuming massive growth in games industry which I’m not totally convinced
about, the market for reality is still significantly bigger than the market
for escapism. Always has been and hopefully always will be. Otherwise we end
up like those poor saps in the Matrix, living in a simulation while feeding
the corporate overlords with our mental and physical energy. Oh wait...

