

On the State of Economics  - cwan
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2010/03/david-brooks-on-state-of-economics.html

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danteembermage
I once explained this to someone like this: Suppose you were to sit down at
length with [insert favorite sports hero here, I'd pick Brett Favre just for
fun]. He is probably one of the worlds experts on how to read a defense, what
the correct throwing form should be, what exercises to do in the off season,
what qualities to make for a good wide receiver, etc.

Now imagine you ask him "Who is going to win Texas vs. Alabama this year" Is
he more qualified to answer that than pretty much anyone you will probably
meet in your whole life; yes. Does all of his expertise in other areas help in
making that decision; yes. Is the guy going to do statistically better than a
coin toss? Probably not. We don't need to "rethink quaterback theory" or
"throwout freshman textbooks" because of this though as people seem to be fond
of claiming.

~~~
timbowen
This is true, and a good point. One thing we do need, however, is to take the
opinion of prominent economists with a little bit more salt. I remember when
invoking the name Greenspan among those interested in economics was like
invoking the Name of the Lord - there was no higher authority. Now good ol' Al
is getting hung out to dry and, in my opinion, trying to shunt blame away from
himself as much as possible.

There shouldn't be a cult of celebrity in any science, economics least of all.
This is what the NYT author should have argued against rather than economics
in general. Before Farve went to play for Minnesota, how many Packers fans do
you think would have bet against his prediction in the Texas vs. Alabama game
if it was a very public prediction? The line in Wisconsin would be
outrageously off as bookies bumped it more and more away from Farve's
prediction. Go to Vegas and it's probably a lot closer to the money. This
decision distortion is a real problem that is wreaking real havoc on our
system of exchange.

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tjgabbour
Dean Baker is a good economist, who predicted the housing bubble early on, as
well as the resulting recession.
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dean_Baker#Financial_crisis_of_...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dean_Baker#Financial_crisis_of_2007.E2.80.932009)

I think it makes sense that some economists are a lot better at their jobs
than others. Many may fall into ideological ruts, because industry and
government have strong interests in the outcome of this social "science".

