
Common Enemies - hooboy
https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/common-enemies/
======
roenxi
This is an instance where on the one hand, a globally coordinated response
doesn't do all that much. Korea doesn't seem to need any special help from
Italy, for example.

On the other hand, global coordination by medical researchers is both critical
and, I expect, frantic. The speed we've progressed from identification through
sequencing and then on to Phase 3 antivirals is nothing short of jaw-dropping;
this is the most amazing response to a disease we've seen in however many
thousand years f recorded history we have.

We may also have to wind back the easy availability of travel after this too.
This is probably going to become a 1 in 30 years style event if the travel
networks don't change. Good thing to coordinate on, but an issue for the
future.

~~~
kspacewalk2
>wind back the easy availability of travel

What do you mean by that? I'm assuming it's not just a roundabout way of
saying "more expensive", and thus more exclusive, like in the (bad) old days.

~~~
roenxi
I do mean the bad old days. Unless COVID turns out to be radically overblown
I'm hopeful we don't have the stomach to do this again. Our fast and well
connected airline system was a massive contributing factor to this spiraling
out of control.

If I had the choice; permanent 2 week quarantine for all air travelers on
arrival. That'd kill a lot of travel-related industries.

------
milksteak42
I don't buy it. A crisis that causes the world's countries to isolate
themselves from each other does not stimulate cooperation. In fact I'd argue
the opposite - it highlights the downsides of a cooperative world with open
borders and open markets. I'm not making a value judgement here, just that
this will probably result in the opposite of what the article implies.

~~~
n4r9
Physical separation doesn't suggest a lack of mutual cooperation. I'm
interacting with my friends as much as if not more than ever despite never
seeing them in person.

~~~
arvinsim
I would say that this pandemic would argue more for better digital
interconnectedness.

Global access to the internet is still not great. We need better networks!

~~~
alexpetralia
I just had a random thought how ironic it would be if we all displaced
physical connections with digital ones, only to be thwarted by a global,
digital supervirus in lieu of a physical one.

~~~
arvinsim
Yes that could happen too. But physical and digital connections need not be
mutually exclusive.

I only argue about digital connectedness because it still needs improvement.

Meeting people in person...not much can be improved there. You just need to
turn up.

------
aj7
Much less confident in our leaders in Washington. FDR seems almost biblical in
comparison.

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throwanem
This is a beautiful analysis, no less so because it overlooks that, in World
War II, the enemy was tangible and knowable in ways that a virus is not.

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gumby
An encouraging essay, but things were not quite as rosy as described.

For examples in the article blood donations were required to be segregated by
"race" (to their credit, the Navy just aggregated it and labeled outgoing
bottles as needed). Crime _rose_ in blackout Britain as the chance of being
caught for theft and robbery fell dramatically.

I say this not to pooh-pooh the article. In fact on international cooperation
we have a nice A/B test running right now: Europe sent emergency supplies to
China and is now getting some in return. Countries that jumped at
international standards reaped the benefits (Senegal has had and continues to
have better testing capability and medical response than the USA). Those that
chose to "go it alone" or practice censorship have done worse than those who
have been more holistic.

It remains to be seen if any useful lessons are learnt from this experiment.

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whatsmyusername
I do not expect this outcome under current leadership.

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mito88
"field of race relations"....

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kick
Did he invent that Voltaire quote? I can't find a source for it anywhere.

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streetcat1
The problem with this virus is not that there is no vaccine, but that it has
asymptomatic carriers.

Hence since there is no way to prove if one is infected, the government
assumes that everyone is infected, thus halting economic activity.

The solution will probably be:

1) Massive testing - I could see "at home" test kit. 2) Some sort of
certificate of the day of the test and the results. 3) Some sort of division
between clean areas (where only non-infected people reside). For example, a
flight must certify that all the passengers are clean.

The other option is to have the virus return every X month until there is a
vaccine, or until 90-80% of the population is infected.

------
cs702
_> Pandemics kill people and recessions ruin people. Saying they have silver
linings is a step too far. But I wonder if the best map we have that tells us
what to expect next is the kind of extreme cooperation, solidarity, and
empathy we last saw in the 1940s. And I wonder if we’ll look back at COVID-19
as one of the worst things to happen to us, yet triggering something positive
that couldn’t be achieved any other way._

I really -- _really_ \-- hope the author is right. His arguments are
persuasive and his logic is sound, but I'm less certain than he is of such a
positive outcome.

Another historical precedent to keep in mind is the Little Ice Age in Europe,
which brought about _both_ sustained economic depression (due to poor crop
growth and poor livestock survival) and widespread disease (due to increased
activity of pathogens and disease vectors), including the Black Death. During
this horrendous period, economic depression and widespread disease fueled each
other, generating a lethal feedback loop. Quoting from Wikipedia: "Communities
often lashed out via violent crimes, including robbery and murder; sexual
offense accusations increased as well, such as adultery, bestiality, and rape.
Europeans sought explanations for the famine, disease, and social unrest that
they were experiencing, leading to the act of placing blame upon the innocent"
(think Jews, women accused of witchcraft, people accused of blasphemy, and so
on). "Evidence from several studies indicate that increases in violent actions
against marginalized groups that were held responsible for the Little Ice Age
overlap with years of particularly cold, dry weather."[a]

Back to the present: If most societies on earth blame _an impersonal pathogen_
for this disastrous shock, and if governments everywhere manage to keep
populations in reasonably good living conditions throughout the crisis, we may
indeed see more unity against a common enemy. But if most societies resort to
_scapegoating_ , Heaven help us.

This isn't idle talk: As I write this, Trump is actively blaming "the Chinese"
and "foreigners" for the virus,[b] while some Chinese officials blame "the
Americans."[c] Russian media, by instinct or calculation, is blaming "America"
too.[d] Others (e.g., Turkey's Erdogan, Iran's leaders) blame "a Zionist
plot"[e] or other crazy conspiracies.[f]

The shock of COVID-19 could give demagogues everywhere fuel for re-lighting a
fire of old prejudices and hatreds that had remained subdued for a generation
or longer.[g]

As I wrote above, I _really_ HOPE the author is right. I hope "the better
angels of our nature" prevail.

\--

[a]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age#Cultural_respon...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age#Cultural_responses)

[b] [https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-outbreak-
trump-b...](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-outbreak-trump-blames-
china-for-virus-again.html)

[c] [https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/02/china-blames-united-
sta...](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/02/china-blames-united-states-
coronavirus/)

[d] [https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/14/russia-blame-america-
co...](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/14/russia-blame-america-coronavirus-
conspiracy-theories-disinformation/)

[e] [https://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/Antisemitism/Coronavirus-
is-a...](https://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/Antisemitism/Coronavirus-is-a-Zionist-
plot-say-Turkish-politicians-media-public-621393)

[f] [https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/iran-
leader-r...](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/iran-leader-
refuses-us-citing-virus-conspiracy-theory-69733905)

[g]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demagogue#Methods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demagogue#Methods)

------
hawkice
In the meantime, countries are closing their borders and isolating more than
even the most regressive and backwards-looking people could have dreamed of a
year ago. Almost no country has a response plan that has anything to do with
any other country at all. As an American abroad, it honestly feels like I'm
trapped between waiting on uncertain visa extensions and being forced
headfirst into the pandemic by returning home.

~~~
Danieru
> anything to do with any other country at all

Virus spread is inherently a local problem. Are you imaging Xi should order
American restaurants closed? The best China can do is watch out for
themselves, warn others, and send masks once supply allows.

Closed borders is more about ensuring people do not flee with the virus in-
tow.

~~~
hawkice
Wow, we have come so far from the Ebola response that it has literally become
inconceivable there would be more active international cooperation. This
doesn't bode well.

