
Elon Musk Downplays Covid-19 Danger in Email to Space-X Employees - DyslexicAtheist
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31562574/elon-musk-covid-19-coronavirus/
======
angarg12
> "As a basis for comparison, the risk of death from C19 is _vastly_ less than
> the risk of death from driving your car home." He pointed out that there
> have been 36,000 automotive deaths.

Is he really comparing the absolute number of deaths rather than the mortality
rate? Come on Elon, you can do better than this.

~~~
Slimbo
Also, the logical conclusion of that argument is we should do more about
vehicle accidents, not ignore Covid-19!

~~~
manicdee
No, the logical conclusion is that we take simple precautions every time we
get in a car (which is an endemic disease), which is what keeps the fatality
rate low, and we can take simple precautions to keep a pandemic from killing
people.

Cars are in what … top three or so causes of death alongside heart disease and
cancer?

Deaths from COVID-19 is the USA are only going to beat that number if the
government truly screws the pooch in terms of testing, treatment and
management.

Wash your hands.

~~~
zelon88
Define what you mean by "screw the pooch."

Currently COVID-19 response is a finely tuned balance of economic impact to
death-toll. React too early and you'll experience an unacceptable economic
impact. React too late and you'll experience an unacceptable death-toll.

The reason this situation is so dire is not because of the lethality of the
virus. It is because our medical infrastructure is not capable of treating
patients in the capacity that this virus can infect them. The goal is not to
prevent people from contracting COVID-19. The goal is to slow the spread of
COVID-19 so that the number of cases which require hospitalization stays lower
than the availability of hospital beds.

If everyone got sick all at once the fatality rate would increase because
people would be dying faster than they could be treated. So long as we can
treat our ill faster than people become ill we can manage this situation even
if 100% of humans eventually become infected. The balancing act comes into
play when you also need to consider the impact to the economy.

There is a saturation point that early responding countries will reach where
even if they continue to increase their response they will only be increasing
their economic impact without significantly decreasing the death-toll. Finding
this balance is what governments are trying to do right now.

------
squarefoot
From someone who praised Musk for pretty much everything he did (except that
"pedo guy" comment), I'm starting to revise my opinion on him. Either he is
incredibly ill informed about the thing or he is blatantly lying to the public
for fears of Tesla stocks plummeting. Someone should ask him if a driver who
had a car accident can "infect" people nearby so that they'll have accidents
themselves too.

~~~
iso1210
To be devils advocate

> Someone should ask him if a driver who had a car accident can "infect"
> people nearby so that they'll have accidents themselves too.

That would be a pileup

~~~
jjeaff
Yes, but then the survivors of the accident don't go home and "infect" the
rest of their family. Or go into work the next day and "infect" half their co-
workers.

~~~
manicdee
We already are infected by cars to the point that not having a car is
considered special.

------
etaioinshrdlu
The dictator-like control he exerts over his organizations is frankly
disgusting. Part of the deal in signing up is to go along with practically any
decision "EM" makes. There is a monoculture there that it seems most employees
agree with. Elon overrode and reversed the decision making of his subordinates
in keeping all orgs completely open.

------
muzika
Musk usually says whatever is most beneficial to him and his companies.

~~~
powerbroker
All in the service of making human s a multiplanetary species. Did people
think that would happen without some sacrifices along the way? Look at those
astronauts. Their bone marrow is being zapped by ionizing radiation? Man-up,
and keep building those rockets!

~~~
geofft
> _Did people think that would happen without some sacrifices along the way?_

There's a different between a sacrifice in service of a goal, and a sacrifice
because you're too stupid to stay safe.

Humankind will not fail to become a multiplanetary species even if SpaceX were
to shut down entirely for a year.

------
yborg
Buzzfeed quoting an internal email they do not provide verbatim.

Musk downplaying a risk is kind of his thing, so it's plausible, but without
the full context this is just Musk-bashing bait.

~~~
spiderfarmer
Read Musk’s tweets. The email is very plausible.

------
spiderfarmer
If Musk keeps going this way it won’t be long before we will equate him with
Lex Luthor instead of Tony Stark.

~~~
threeseed
Many of us already have.

Calling the hero diver a pedophile, bailing out his cousin's SolarCity company
and allowing Autopilot to kill people are just a few of his many ethically
questionable actions.

------
Leary
Elon Musk and Jack Ma should have a round 2 debate on the coronavirus after
their previous AI debate last year.

Let's see how the Internet will react this time.

------
jacquesm
Elon Musk hasn't found a crisis yet that he did not use to put his foot in his
mouth somehow. I've given up on believing that he will grow up at some point.

~~~
nate_meurer
I've often wondered if he has high-functioning autism. His human-to-human
interface is missing something.

~~~
jacquesm
Lack of empathy?

~~~
nate_meurer
Yeah maybe. Certainly some kind of issue with feedback, self-awareness, or
inappropriate expression and emotional response.

He also shows some striking abilities in focus, synthesis, organization, and
what I perceive to be fearlessness. Put together, this all seems familiar to
me from my experience with high-function autistics.

------
threeseed
> He pointed out that there have been 36,000 automotive deaths

Across the world governments spend billions on measures to curb these.

It would be significantly higher if we didn't have speed zones, cameras,
police etc.

Maybe in Musk's world view we should cut this spending and not worry about
preventible deaths.

~~~
manicdee
Or maybe in Musk’s view if we did at least as much for pandemics as we do for
vehicle safety there wouldn’t be an issue?

In a car you drive safely and wear a seatbelt. The government mandates certain
standards for designs including braking capacity and passenger safety.

For diseases you can socially isolate and wash your hands. The government can
properly fund disease research and control.

------
mrtksn
It’s dangerous when cult leaders take sides in these things. He is anti-public
transportation with reasons including being dangerous since you might be
traveling with a serial killer and people should use insulated pods that he
wants to make but the same people should not be afraid of a virus and keep
working together.

I admire Elon in many ways but I am terrified of his tendencies of
psychopathy.

According to Musk, We should use individual cars because there’s a risk to
have a serial killer in the metro train but it’s statistically safe to gather
with people when a deadly virus is spreading. Cult follower would buy that and
amplify the message.

It’s scary stuff, let’s hope the guy doesn’t turn into an anti-vaxxer or
something like that(because “we need as spicies to evolve through natural
selection so we can live in exoplanets” maybe?).

~~~
londons_explore
I see him as someone who thinks in a 100% "for the benefit of mankind" kind of
way, but then has to modify his comments to appeal to his audience.

The anti-public transport is exactly that. He realises public transport is
exactly what the world needs, but his audience is car-addicted americans.
Instead he proposes a tunnel cars can drive along on sleds... And later people
pods, that look not-so-different from subway carriages... And later still
suggests that people-pods will happen first before the car-sleds.

~~~
mrtksn
This sounds like the attempts of interpreting religious text to accommodate
and to fit the world you think we live in.

I’m not comfortable with this way of thinking, in muslim countries after every
big scientific discovery people advocate that “it’s already written in the
koran” since Allah must have known it and if you twist the text enough and
ignore contradicting interpretations it can be understood this way.

I don’t like that and don’t believe that this is the case.

~~~
spiderfarmer
With the advent of atheism, some people seek refuge in cults of personality.

------
tuna-piano
His point is like looking at grey skies and a weather radar of an approaching
hurricane and saying "Just because the sun isn't out doesn't mean we should
cancel our picnic on the beach!".

Coronavirus is not a disaster today, it is a looming disaster. Without human
intervention, Coronavirus would be pretty sure to kill millions in the US in a
short period of time (1+% fatality * 33+% of the population).

Yes, the chances of you or anyone you know dying today from Coronavirus is
practically 0. Coronavirus is not a disaster in the US today. If a vaccine for
Coronavirus was scheduled to be given to everyone tomorrow, it would not be a
disaster, and we would not stop economic activity for it. But there isn't a
vaccine tomorrow, so look at the virus forecast and take precautions.

~~~
Drunk_Engineer
Stop with the fear-mongering, it was not going to kill millions.

~~~
maxlamb
Without human intervention, it would infect 40-70% of population. Multiply by
the death rate and the fact that most hospitals would be completely overwelmed
and you do get millions of death.

~~~
Drunk_Engineer
The death rate is NOT 1%. Of victims in hospital, perhaps, but not out of the
general population that gets it.

~~~
DennisP
Mortality in South Korea is running around 0.6% to 0.7%. It's not likely due
to missing lots of mild cases, because they're testing 10,000 people every
day, most of them asymptomatic. They've managed to keep the rate low because
they took early serious measures to control the spread and avoided overloading
their hospitals.

Italy has overloaded its hospitals, and now their doctors are forced to choose
who they will save and who they won't.

------
LargoLasskhyfv
It's just _bizniz_. Has to go on, otherwise the economical distortion field
collapses. Riding the wave as long as possible.

------
jacknews
"Tesla CEO noted you’re more likely to die driving a car home than from
coronavirus."

Haha, so basically, don't drive home?

------
sys_64738
He's not there psychologically.

------
yread
The sooner Musk buggers off to Mars the better

------
hfufigivknog
His sentiment is correct. The source for what I’m saying is a veteran
virologist with 40 years of experience dealing with these exact kinds of
things. A two hour interview was linked from a previous HN thread.

Despite what ceejayoz might try to tell you, corona viruses do not mutate in
the way that influenza does. Influenza mutates in a way that evades the immune
system but retains other qualities. This is why new vaccines for the flu are
always being developed. Despite the fact that corona virus family viruses are
responsible for a very small amount of “common cold,” they do not exhibit this
behavior. They do mutate though, which is why we are seeing two “versions” of
covid-19. The ultimate meaning of all this is that once a population gains
collective immunity, the virus will basically disappear. In layman's terms,
the virus will go away probably between 3 to 6 months from now in the United
States. If anyone tries to refute this, post actual evidence or expert
testimony showing that covid-19 mutates _in a similar way to influenza_.

Like Elon musk points out, only those with immune system problems are at risk.
This includes _some people of advanced age_ , some people with diabetes and
various other people.

The virus appears to kill people like many other similar illnesses: if the
infection spreads to deeply within the lungs, gas transfer is interrupted and
secondary bacterial infection sets in, commonly known as pneumonia. The
treatment for which is antibiotics and an oxygen line. This is why you see
Italy asking specifically for more oxygen equipment, in my non expert opinion.
Both these treatments are widely available and do not require special skill to
acquire or administer. Patients who do not benefit from these would require
mechanical ventilation.

The fatality rate is massively skewed toward severity because of the lack of
testing. If all the benign cases were taken into account, the facility rate
would be much smaller although still high enough to take seriously.

Remote administration of oxygen and antibiotics, washing hands, and light
self-quarantine, all very easy to do, will blunt the impact on hospitals
significantly.

Overall, the threat that this virus poses to most people and society in
general has been overblown by the for-profit media.

I would like to apologize for being so impolite in addressing this topic
previously.

[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S089684112...](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0896841120300469)

[https://youtu.be/WWNuDT4t-TM](https://youtu.be/WWNuDT4t-TM)

~~~
geofft
> _In layman 's terms, the virus will go away probably between 3 to 6 months
> from now in the United States._

No one (serious) disputes this, and the number of cases in China and South
Korea is already on the way down. The question is how many people it will kill
along the way.

> _only those with immune system problems are at risk_

1\. What immune system problem did Wenliang Li have? (If you want to say
"mostly," sure, but "only" is an unsubstantiated claim.)

2\. People can become asymptomatic carriers pretty easily. That's a good
reason why someone with authority over groups of people that contain _some_
at-risk folks should attempt to prevent or reduce the frequency of such
gatherings, at least until we develop collective immunity or a vaccine. (Such
people include CEOs, pastors, concert organizers, politicians, etc.)
Furthermore, asymptomatic carriers can pass the virus onto other asymptomatic
carriers, so until we've started developing some immunity, it's a good idea
for even groups of entirely not-at-risk people to limit gatherings, to reduce
secondary transmission to at-risk people.

People with immune system problems aren't doomed to die immediately, and it's
worth taking steps to prevent them from getting infected, if you can. (Yes,
people with immune system problems, older people, etc. have some chance of
dying soon anyway. But _everyone_ is going to die at some point. It is a
widely-accepted moral principle that this doesn't excuse causing people to die
early.)

> _secondary bacterial infection sets in, commonly known as pneumonia_

This is incorrect - SARS-CoV-2 is unusual in that it's capable of causing
pneumonia on its own, without a secondary bacterial infection. Antibiotics
won't help. See, for instance,
[https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-
coronavirus-2...](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-
coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters) .

> _Overall, the threat that this virus poses to most people and society in
> general has been overblown by the for-profit media._

What's the profit angle here? What's the benefit to big media from people
being unwilling to attend movies and concerts?

Meanwhile, how do you explain the absolute terror in the voices of medical
professionals unaffiliated with the media, such as
[https://twitter.com/tina_nguyen/status/1238879814863519744](https://twitter.com/tina_nguyen/status/1238879814863519744)
or [https://left.it/2020/03/13/covid_19-open-letter-from-
italy-t...](https://left.it/2020/03/13/covid_19-open-letter-from-italy-to-the-
international-scientific-community/) (or, you know, Wenliang Li)?

~~~
DyslexicAtheist
> No one (serious) disputes this

Spanish flu (second wave) was far more deadly. Mutation is a possibility. Not
saying it will happen but I wouldn't rule it out 100% either.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Deadly_second_wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Deadly_second_wave)

~~~
geofft
Spanish flu (influenza A) was not a coronavirus. Our anonymous friend's
assertion is that extrapolations from influenza A don't apply to SARS-CoV-2,
which is a coronavirus (otherwise we'd expect e.g. an annual coronavirus flu
season with new strains every so often, much the way there's an annual
influenza A season). That much, at least, appears to be correct.

I don't disagree it's a possibility, but influenza A isn't particularly
informative on how likely the possibility is.

~~~
ncmncm
The likelihood of a mutation that evades (or is more severe because of) immune
response to previous infections is directly proportional to the number of
cases, i.e. is growing exponentially.

There is some evidence that prior exposure to other coronavirus (including
vaccination) is an additional risk factor for loss of lung function.

So, yes, the influenza A experience is relevant. In that instance, those with
a strong immune response had a greater fatality rate.

------
pcdoodle
I'm going to get down voted but this is rational CEO speak.

~~~
arcticfox
Can you elaborate on how this is rational? I'm almost always strongly in
agreement with Musk, but I think he's so far off here I can't even understand
it. It's ridiculous to use the current fatality numbers, the question is the
potential.

Does he really think cars are more dangerous in Northern Italy right now than
COVID? COVID has killed about 1000 people in Lombardy (pop 10 million) in a
week. That's twice the number of fatalities Lombardy generally sees from cars
in a _year_ and it's getting worse daily, despite the aggressive
countermeasures.

I don't see any reason why the rest of the world won't look like Lombardy
unless measures are taken.

~~~
manicdee
Current death toll in Italy is under 2000 nationwide (2020-03-15). Nationwide
road fatalities are around 3,000pa.

Italy is an example of the worst case scenario of poor management and
susceptible population.

