
Holes in herd immunity led to a 25-year-high in U.S. measles cases - pseudolus
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/holes-herd-immunity-led-25-year-high-us-measles-cases
======
lurquer
The Article doesn't clearly state how many of the measle cases occurred in
people with vaccinations. The only reference was sort of vague and indicates
about 28% of the cases were in people who were in fact vaccinated. That seems
quite high.

In short, instead of bashing people who choose not to vaccinate, why aren't
the authors looking into why there was -- apparently -- a 28% failure rate in
the vaccines? That seems strange. Maybe there was a bad batch of vaccines?
But, easier to criticize orthodox Jewish families than a pharmaceutical
company, I guess.

Edit: it's not a '28% failure rate.' Not even close. But, I would like an
article like this to at least provide some data as to the effectiveness of the
vaccine in the first place.

~~~
foxyv
That's bayesian statistics for you. Measles vaccine works about 97% of the
time. But if 91% of the population is vaccinated skewing the number of people
who catch the disease.

P(H) - You have a 91% chance of being vaccinated. [2]

P(H|P) - You have a 3% chance of catching measles if you are vaccinated and
exposed. [3]

P(H|P') - You have a 90% chance of catching measles if you are not-vaccinated
and exposed. [3]

P(H|D) - About 25% of the population that catches measles will be vaccinated.
[4]

(1) [https://www.sciencenews.org/article/holes-herd-immunity-
led-...](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/holes-herd-immunity-led-25-year-
high-us-measles-cases)

(2) [https://www.fda.gov/consumers/consumer-
updates/vaccination-b...](https://www.fda.gov/consumers/consumer-
updates/vaccination-best-protection-against-measles)

(3) [https://www.nvic.org/vaccines-and-
diseases/measles/measles-v...](https://www.nvic.org/vaccines-and-
diseases/measles/measles-vaccine-effectiveness.aspx)

(4)
[http://psych.fullerton.edu/mbirnbaum/bayes/BayesCalc.htm](http://psych.fullerton.edu/mbirnbaum/bayes/BayesCalc.htm)

