
Nigeria 'on red alert' over Ebola death in Lagos - richardwigley
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-28498665
======
rustyconover
It's not quite time to go into full Dustin-Hoffman-killer-virus-movie paranoia
yet, but the it seems the inability to safely process the biohazards, bodies
and healthcare paraphernalia is a real problem. Even if you're quarantined,
someone eventually has to cleanup the mess you leave behind and its becoming
tricker to do.

Ebola is a incurable and statistically fatal disease, but it is being made
worse by people wanting to see their families and friends before their will
likely expire. This behavior places infected persons in communities and
situations where proper care and quarantine may not be available therefore the
disease has spread. People acting in their own self interest when confronting
their mortality is nothing new. We'd likely all do the same.

Maybe we need to start treating this outbreak we fight wildfires. Start
digging a proverbial fire line. Setting broad travel restrictions and
geographical quarantines and hope that the virus fades away over time. Of
course this is cruel and inhumane to people with the disease not to mention
impractical to implement physically over such a wide area because people
inside any area would rush out possibly taking the virus with them.

~~~
Havoc
>Setting broad travel restrictions

There is an "African" border near me. Its got a fence - which is impressive.
The fence does double duty as a washing line and is about waist high.

~~~
vfclists
Do you know of any countries where 'proper' borders exist, other than those
between East and West Germany, and North and South Korea, which existed for
political reasons and economic reasons?

Or the one between the USA and Mexico, which has more to do with a dislike of
the racial makeup of those wanting to cross into the USA?

Isn't a border nothing more than a line drawn in the sand patrolled by armed
men in places where it is feasible?

If animals can cross borders at will, then why can't humans also? After all
humans are a peculiar breed of apes without fur?

~~~
pdelgallego
The border between Spain and Morocco. Spain has two exclave located on the
north coast of Africa, Ceuta and Melilla.

Every year ten of thousands of africans try to cross the border jumping over
the 7m high fence.

Wikipedia:

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melilla_border_fence](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melilla_border_fence)
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceuta_border_fence](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceuta_border_fence)

Images:

[https://www.google.com/search?q=la+valla+de+melilla&es_sm=91...](https://www.google.com/search?q=la+valla+de+melilla&es_sm=91&tbm=isch&source=lnms&sa=X&ei=DdLUU62yMeT8ywOelYLACw&ved=0CAcQ_AUoAg&biw=854&bih=444)

~~~
vfclists
How much of the Spanish border does that fence cover if I may ask? Does that
include the borders with Portugal, France and Italy?

It seems its main purpose is to stop the refugee processing system from being
overwhelmed, as that doesn't place them on Spanish soil proper.

~~~
pdelgallego
Only cover these two segment of the border. Spain is part of the Schengen
area, as well as Portugal and France, so there is no need to have a real
border with them.

------
richardwigley
The alert has been caused by a patient flying to Nigeria - the theory is that
it isn't easy to catch Ebola [1] so this is a test.

The disease has spread from Guinea to Liberia [2] so this would be a jump
Eastward [3]

[1]
[http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2014/06/25/324941229/could-t...](http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2014/06/25/324941229/could-
the-ebola-outbreak-spread-to-europe-or-the-u-s)

[2]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_outbreak...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_outbreak#mediaviewer/File:Guinea_Sierra_Leone_Ebola_Map_April_14_2014_png.png)

[3]
[https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/West+Africa/@14.6336215,...](https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/West+Africa/@14.6336215,-1.8552252,5z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0xe26e8142c8c27c9:0xd456c5cbdb66949)

~~~
steven2012
The lead doctor in Sierra Leone in charge of fighting ebola himself got Ebola.
If it's not that easy to contract ebola, you would have thought the foremost
expert would have easily been able to avoid this.

~~~
jonnathanson
Actually, you might expect him to be a _lot_ more likely to catch Ebola. He's
coming into deliberate vicinity of the virus on what one assumes is a weekly
or even daily basis. Frequency effect is in play.

For similar reasons, you'd expect the world's foremost expert on avoiding
shark attacks to be attacked by a shark more often than the general
population. He's out there practicing his theories and doing his research
every day. The rest of us aren't going in the water as often.

The best way to avoid being attacked by a shark in the ocean is not to go in
the ocean. The best way to avoid contracting Ebola is to stay as far away from
Ebola as possible. An expert might be better able to handle himself around
Ebola, or around sharks, than the rest of us. But he's also more likely to be
around Ebola (or sharks) in the first place.

------
nemo44x
Tekmira Pharmaceuticals has a cure for Ebola that has success in non-human
Primates. Is it unethical to try using this on infected humans that are going
to die soon?

~~~
nolok
With or without each person's approval ? What is your control group ?

~~~
PeterisP
It's not like we need a special control group if that control group is
supposed to receive no treatment - we know rather well how untreated Ebola
works and the mortality rate.

If we try out drug X and only 50% of those people die, then we know that drug
X is good for Ebola. Once there is drug Y to try, _then_ we can use drug X for
a control group.

~~~
gus_massa
You must be sure that you are measuring the same mix of virus strains, that
the patients are receiving the same medical care and food, that the hygienic
conditions are the same (the patient was going to survive, but a diarrhea just
killed him), room conditions (is the room temperature important?).

You must be sure that you are using the same criteria to count the patients.
Are you going to count the almost dead patients as a drug failure, or drop it
from the list? Are you going to give the drug to suspected cases or only to
confirmed cases? Do you count small children (they usually have a smaller
survival rate)?

Are you counting the people that die before going to the hospital? Are you
counting the (few) people that survive without going to the hospital?

If you get a 30% cure rate, (and suppose that the standard cure rate is 20%),
it's very difficult to be sure that the improvement is in the mew drug and not
in a change in all the other factors or some unwanted statistical trick.

Most of the rules for double blind studies are there because in the past there
have been many "successful" test of new drugs, that were later retracted. It's
very easy to measure incorrectly, especially when you really want the
experiment to be a success.

(Another rules are there to prevent the consequences of previous
"unsuccessful" test, were the "cure" was much worse than the illness.)

~~~
gfodor
Presumably the idea wouldn't be to prove the effectiveness of the 'cure' but
an example of compassionate use.

------
richardwigley
Update to the story: "Meanwhile, in Nigeria, the health minister Onyebuchi
Chukwu said that all other passengers on board the flight with the infected
man had been traced and were being monitored."

Freetown, the Sierre Leone Capital, has had it's first case and seems to be
having problems controlling the movement of infected people, one (now
unfortunately dead) was 'rescued' from quarantine by relatives. "The woman had
been one of dozens of people who tested positive but were unaccounted for, the
BBC's Umaru Fofana reports from the capital, Freetown."

[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-
africa-28505061](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-28505061)

------
abozeman8466
The United States and ALL of our allies need to restrict travel from every
country where at least ONE case of Ebola has surfaced. We also need to
restrict travel to and from ANY country that is not doing the same. We need to
start practicing isolation/quarantine of certain sovereign nations
immediately. I don't think Obama will do it. He's going to get us all killed.

~~~
vfclists
> The United States and ALL of our allies need to restrict travel from every
> country where at least ONE case of Ebola has surfaced

When did this become an 'us versus them' issue, as though any people or
governments are glad to have an Ebola outbreak on their hands.

Ebola is spread through physical contact with infect matter or fluids. It
isn't airborne.

This looks like racism coming into play. Obama is black, Nigeria is also an
African country. And what does it have to do with Obama?

Is he an expect on medical issues or is something for him to leave to the
experts health issues are delegated to decide? And to think that you only
signed on make this comment.

Don't let your fears let your behaviour degenerate into panic and racism.

------
confluence
Can anyone give me an idea on what would happen if Ebola ever did get
airborne?

I know that its high mortality rate is a massive curb on its ability to
spread, but is that enough to put a dampener on spread if it became more
easily transmittable?

~~~
placeybordeaux
I don't think that is a thing that is really in the realm of possibility. We
should probably be more concerend about a strain of the flu becoming deadlier.

~~~
confluence
How would the world cope with a Spanish Flu like situation in 2014?

~~~
tomjen3
Badly. We can't cut of international commerce, the world would starve. We
can't cut of international travel, the world would starve and there would be a
ton of riots.

If the outbreak is localized then we may have a change of putting a quarantine
on the area, but I doubt it.

~~~
kiiski
I would assume that all first world countries have stored
food/medicine/oil/etc. for emergencies. At least Finland keeps enough for six
months consumption (was 12 previously, but with the current economic troubles
it was dropped to 6 a few months ago). Of course that wouldn't include all the
luxuries, but enough to keep people alive and the important industries
running. And I suppose there would still be trade with countries that are
known to be safe.

~~~
imjustsaying
That would be an incorrect assumption in regards to the existence of medical
stockpiles in all first world countries.

For example the closest thing to a medical stockpile in the United States
would be the current inventory on hand and what the public or private sector
has stockpiled for its own limited audience.

Perhaps there are exceptions for certain medications, but requiring 6-12 month
stockpiles of certain medications tastes of corporatism.

