
Tesla will reveal its semi this Thursday, and Musk promises to 'blow your mind' - SirLJ
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/12/tesla-will-reveal-its-semi-this-thursday-and-musk-promises-to-blow-your-mind-with-it.html
======
empath75
At this point, what would blow my mind is tesla making their production goals
for like anything at all.

~~~
goshx
For me, judging by their cars on the streets and all the technology
advancements since they started, missing production goals by a few months or
even a couple years is irrelevant. I think we are all too spoiled and tend to
dismiss real technological challenges because “I want it now!”.

~~~
praneshp
> because “I want it now!”.

Isn't it because "Tesla, a public company, promised/projected this production
goal"?

~~~
rofrol
yeah, f*ck tech advancements and saving the planet. I want my profits now.

~~~
struppi
The problem is: They cannot save the world if they crash the company into a
wall.

I am not saying that they will, and I hope they will not.

But since a few weeks, I do not completely rule out the possibility anymore.
Because if only some of their problems, that are being reported right now, are
systemic or hard to fix, 2018 _might_ be a bad year for Tesla...

~~~
Fjolsvith
Hah, Tesla just can't seem to please anyone (kinda like Trump).

------
VeejayRampay
The negativity with Musk is, as usual, strong in the comments.

One would think that a daring entrepreneur tackling all the important problems
of our time would be the beloved poster child of HN, but no, apparently he has
failed to meet production goals or something so obviously he sucks.

------
mmel
If it can't meet current demand on the Tesla 3, how could it possibly ship
much larger vehicles with presumably a much greater battery capacity in a
relevant timeframe?

~~~
pavs
If I understand correctly, the current speed bump in production is temp issue
in production - which is a fixable problem that's taking a bit of time.

That doesn't mean they should halt all their other projects in the pipeline.
If anything, IMO, stopping all their other projects would mean there are
bigger production issues then they officially shared. Which would be much
worse.

Revealing Semi, proves that they are on the right path (they were supposed to
reveal semi at the end of this year anyway), minus a temp setback.

I think most people are making a much bigger deal out of this setback.

~~~
noitsnot
I read the temp. production issue is they're hand welding and making custom
parts. It's been three+? months, either way. Maybe temp. isn't the best word
to use here. They apparently have no plan to actually deliver the 400k+
preorders in the near future or the schedule they presented.

~~~
pavs
Since we don't know the exact specification of the problem other than what he
said, she said.

Hand welding could be because their auto bot welding parts were having issues,
and are in the process of fixing them. Is it really that bad? the alternative
would be sitting on their butt while the bots are fixed - resulting is zero
cars made. Which would have a much much worse public perception?

The other official reason is battery pack issue (could be related to welding,
who knows). Again Battery pack is their defacto business, Tesla is essentially
a big battery pack strapped into a car. They know how to put batteries better
than almost anyone else in the market - if anyone can bounce back from this
setback quickly - it's Tesla.

So, again, I don't see a huge issue. I see temp setbacks.

I will take slow production rate over a massive recall of cars (which happens
quite often per year, by car industry veteran), any day of the week.

I don't own and Tesla stocks, or any products made by any companies by Musk -
or indirectly profit from his products. I also don't worship him.

I just don't like the general witch hunting mentality on the internet. Where
minor setbacks or mistakes are blown way out of proportion.

~~~
jcranmer
> The other official reason is battery pack issue (could be related to
> welding, who knows). Again Battery pack is their defacto business, Tesla is
> essentially a big battery pack strapped into a car. They know how to put
> batteries better than almost anyone else in the market - if anyone can
> bounce back from this setback quickly - it's Tesla.

What you're saying here, in short, is "They're having issues in their core
competency. Since it's their core competency, it'll obviously be fixed soon."
Phrased in such general terms, it's actually not reason to be optimistic about
Tesla's future.

~~~
pavs
I could very well be wrong. Since we are all guessing here, my guess is as
good as yours or anyone (who is not an insider and sharing the whole story).

------
senectus1
I have really mixed feelings about Musk.

But I love his ideas... I _want_ to believe... I really want his ideas to
work.

I wont invest in his companies.. but I'm rooting for them to succeed.

~~~
kmonsen
I agree, but unfortunately building a business is more about implementation
details than big goals.

------
pleasecalllater
Yea, every time the company fails to work, he shows up, and tells about other
mystery projects. I'm not sure how he started to be so trust-worthy, and why
people give him loads of money, as he is simply an unrealistic dreamer. And
then we hear that the workers in the factories are quite badly treated, and
that he personally is the smartest man on the world. This is so ridiculous.

So I suppose he will show some special-ultra-super-hiper-cool project like
"cold fusion generator for every house", and people will throw even more money
into that black hole. Next year, after all other things he say will not work,
he will probably show super ultra Tesla Model Black Hole 5. And he will get
even more money.

How many people need to die to stop that hype about one person who mainly
tries to do good impression? [http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-factory-
workers-detail-...](http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-factory-workers-
detail-grueling-conditions-fremont-2017-5?IR=T)

~~~
abraae
Perhaps he is an unrealistic dreamer (though one who has achieved an
incredible amount) but I can't think of any other individual who is doing as
much for the planet.

------
nimos
I actually think the math really works out well for semis given you can burn
through your battery lifespan super quick. Let's say you take two 15 minute
breaks + 30 minute lunch per day. That is 1 hour of charge time. Assuming you
start from full battery and a 2% per minute supercharge rate (~what wikipedia
has for the model s) that gives you an extra 120% battery.

1.9kwh per mile and driving 600 miles per day and you can get away with a
400kwh battery. Less actually but my understanding is you want to not charge
to 100% for maximum lifespan. Not sure the optimal cost trade offs...

7 cents per kilowatt hour * 1.9 * 600 = ~$80 a day vs $2.7 a gallon *
600/6(mpg) = $270 a day

$150/kwh for battery with 2000 full cycles is $85 dollars a day without
interest(only ~2 year lifespan so w/e and presumably has some residual value
also not taken into account)

Seems to work out to about $100 a day in savings?? I feel like I must be off
on numbers somewhere. Data on number of cycles doesn't seem to be particularly
consistent.

~~~
donquichotte
> $150/kw

That's insanely cheap, if you can find a place where I can buy batteries for
150$/kWh, please let me know. The cheapest I found are still >300$/kWh.

> 7cents/kWh

In NY the price is ~0.2$/kWh [1]

Also, a 400kWh battery weighs 2 tons. [2]

[1] [https://www.bls.gov/regions/new-york-new-jersey/news-
release...](https://www.bls.gov/regions/new-york-new-jersey/news-
release/averageenergyprices_newyorkarea.htm)

[2]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density)

~~~
nimos
Tesla doesn't publish it's costs but based on what they've said it is a
reasonable estimate[0] Cells in bulk are below 150[1]

7 cents per kwh is a very common industrial rate.[2] Maybe it is a bit low but
it's a lot more reasonable than one of the highest residential rates in the
country ($.2/kwh).

Let's say 5000lb for batteries + cooling/wires. Semi's routinely have
(200gallons *7) 1400lb in fuel or more and a ~500 hp ~3000lb diesel engine. I
don't know what the electric equivalent would weigh exactly but Tesla's 362 hp
motor is 70lb. Let's say a 500hp one weighs 500lb. 5000+500 - 1400 - 3000 =
1,100. Tractor weights are around 15-20k so ~5-7% weight increase with a
pretty generous estimate for cooling/wires and engine weight assuming rest of
the drive train is identical.

[0] [https://electrek.co/2017/02/18/tesla-battery-cost-
gigafactor...](https://electrek.co/2017/02/18/tesla-battery-cost-gigafactory-
model-3/)

[1][http://benchmarkminerals.com/lithium-ion-batteries-are-
now-s...](http://benchmarkminerals.com/lithium-ion-batteries-are-now-selling-
for-under-140kwh-new-york-hears-on-benchmark-world-tour-2017/)

[2][https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.ph...](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a)

~~~
SigmundA
I want electric vehicles to succeed more than anyone, but lets not delude
ourselves:

Tesla's batteries are not that energy dense, they are currently 140 Wh/kg[1].
A 400Kwh battery will weigh at least 6000 pounds.

A 400Kwh will get you maybe 150 mile loaded range, 200 gallons of diesel in a
semi is a 1300 mile range[2]. To compete with a 400Kwh battery pack you only
need to carry 25 gallons of diesel.

Charging a 400 kwh will take at least 3 hours on a supercharger, vs a few
minutes for diesel. Its simply not practical for "long haul" as claimed. For
it to be usable for long haul you need at least 500-600 miles for a days
driving then charge overnight (even that is low for a truck driver). 600 miles
is a 1200Kwh battery at 24,000 lbs costing more than the truck with some kind
of faster charger so it can be ready in 8 hours.

Bottom line diesel is 30x times as energy dense as current battery tech and
that not even counting how much efficiency is left on the table for diesel,
the various super trucks programs are showing real world 10+mpg on a semi vs
the current 6.5mpg standard by doing secondary heat recovery like a power
plant among other things.

The Tesla semi might have some use for local urban delivery but I am highly
skeptical of any "long haul" highway replacement claims, will be very
interested in the real specifications come Thursday.

[1]
[http://enipedia.tudelft.nl/wiki/Tesla_Model_S_Battery](http://enipedia.tudelft.nl/wiki/Tesla_Model_S_Battery)

[2] [https://insideevs.com/tesla-semi-truck-battery-is-how-
big/](https://insideevs.com/tesla-semi-truck-battery-is-how-big/)

~~~
nimos
Taking the 2012 numbers you have at your link, the 85KW pack and 600kg, that
is 6200 lb to get to 400kwh. The 2015 number on wikipedia is 540kg per 85kwh
pack and the model 3 pack is supposed to be 30% more energy dense[0]. The 2015
number gives 5600lbs so I don't think at least 6000lbs is accurate, even the
2012 number is just slightly over.

All else equal you can charge batteries based on a % of their total capacity.
Current superchargers can do about 2%/min for a model S in the 0-80% charge
range but can't deliver the requisite power for a 400kwh pack. But I also
haven't seen very many supercharger stations that would be particularly well
suited for truck traffic either, so I'd imagine there will be a new
charger/stations as well.

Sure batteries are no where near competing on absolute range of diesel but I
don't think they have to. The question is can you get a days driving in
without spending hours and hours charging while keeping the battery capital
cost/weight reasonable.

You don't need a 1200kwh pack for that because you can take a couple short
breaks plus a lunch with supercharging and over double your effective
capacity.

We'll see what happens but I'd be very surprised if the announcement doesn't
include a new super charger and stations unless they design it for short range
point to point only.

[0][https://electrek.co/2016/11/14/tesla-model-3-battery-
energy-...](https://electrek.co/2016/11/14/tesla-model-3-battery-energy-
density-model-s/)

------
ttul
I think what will blow our minds into an alternative dimension is that these
trucks are level 4 self driving...

------
_ph_
I am looking quite forward to that announcement. While other manufacturers
have shown some electric semis, they were all in the demo stage. If Tesla
manages to get a practical electric semi into production, the impact could be
huge.

For those, who think that Tesla should concentrate on the Model 3 first, this
is the early product announcement for the semi - production is probably
starting in a year only, so there are no real conflicts.

------
tckr
What they will be presenting is a design, and a powerpoint slide of promises.

Let's wait how long it takes for the first of those trucks to actually be
used.

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ww520
Is another round of fund raising coming around the corner?

------
oneman
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHNgSMhkoBk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHNgSMhkoBk)

weeeee

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paulsutter
Batteries on the trailers, charge while loading

~~~
dingaling
That would be a logistical headache.

Current semi-trailers are low-tech, interchangeable and universally
compatible.

Introducing a dependency on a specific subset of trailers for a specific
tractor, plus the need for charging facilities at endpoints, would make
operations much more complicated and expensive.

------
taobility
Another bubble Elon Musk blowed up to stimulate Tesla's stock.

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lowglow
Techendo predicted the rise of Elon Musk on an old episode way back in the
day. Now I'm quite honestly tired of hearing about the hype. The fatigue is
real.

------
LouisSayers
So, Tesla has models S3X, and now has a semi... LMAO

