
Predictors Of The Fundraising Market - ttunguz
http://techcrunch.com/2012/08/04/predictors-of-the-fundraising-market/
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bravura
As a data scientist, of course I am drawn to this sort of analysis.

But is the size of the fundraising market really the appriopriate target
variable? The amount of VC that can be raised is a useful number, because
companies always want to be able extend their runway.

But isn't this figure ultimately a proxy for numbers that are more broadly
applicable? Such as: Will your company's growth accelerate or decelerate? What
is the amount of "value" being created by tech? How likely are you to make
money as a tech investor? (Admittedly, some of these are very difficult to
measure, and there are a lot of confounding factors.)

I'm curious if other people have ideas about what is useful to predict, in
terms of the economics of tech.

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joncooper
Interesting. Totally makes sense when you think about it. Asset allocation
among the LP set tends to be backward-looking, so if we believe exiting via
IPO = high fund IRR, we should expect fund flows into VC. Similarly if we
assume that M&A exits are less profitable (especially, less likely to move the
needle on a particular fund's IRR) we should expect to see pressure on the VC
to reinvest that capital and take another swing of the bat.

