
China's rising tech scene threatens US brain drain as ‘sea turtles’ return home - QuickToBan
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/china-s-rising-tech-scene-threatens-u-s-brain-drain-n1029256
======
wesleyfsmith
The most concerning quote: "About 80 percent of Chinese students who get
degrees abroad now go back — up from about 33 percent in 2007, according to
China’s Ministry of Education. Some 15 percent take jobs in China’s booming
tech sector."

Attracting top global talent has always been a competitive advance for
America, and it's not a good sign for our economy if we can't retain people
that we are educating here.

~~~
baron_harkonnen
I know plenty of really bright, talented and hardworking Chinese grad students
who have a preference to stay in the US but the current visa situation is
appalling. RFEs (request for evidence) which were once rare have become
standard practice, making the wait to start a new job go up by months, with
lots of stressful uncertainty as to whether or not you will be allowed to stay
in the US.

There's lots of VC money in China right now and most talented Chinese tech
people have offers waiting for them in China that are both very high level
positions with very high compensations. So even if you want to stay in the US
on the one hand you have people back home offering you insane opportunities
and trying very hard to incentivize you to return, and you have the US
government essentially trolling you to make a point about how unwanted you are
(from their perspective).

The fact that the current US policy is effectively working hard to drive away
very talented people who want to be here but have plenty of good offers
elsewhere will do plenty of long term harm (for the US).

~~~
stupidcar
Except the article doesn't say anything about visas or better salaries back
home. Its whole slant is that apparently Chinese graduates are moving away
from Silicon Valley because those darn US labor laws mean they can't work nine
hours a day, six days a week, for lower wages.

The article is such a pathetically transparent piece of anti-labor rights
astro-turfing: China is going to out-compete the US unless US workers can be
forced to accept equally shitty working conditions, that I cannot believe
Hacker News is taking it seriously.

~~~
DiogenesKynikos
The article does discuss increasing salaries in China.

The issue with the pace of development bring quicker doesn't just come down to
labor rights. Shenzhen is the world's biggest electronics manufacturing hub,
so it can be easier to iterate quickly with manufacturers there. The article
does indeed interview someone who complains about Americans supposedly not
working long enough hours, but that's actually a pretty widespread view in
China about Westerners.

~~~
stupidcar
I'm sure it's a very widespread view, amongst "entrepreneurs" benefitting from
a ready mass of overworked and under-compensated workers, and workers one
generation past poverty who have been culturally indoctrinated with a belief
that accepting extreme workloads is a sign of virtue. That doesn't excuse it
being uncritically repeated by others rather than treated as the toxic and
exploitative sentiment that it is.

------
robbrit
Does anybody know how hard it is for non-Chinese citizens to live and work in
China?

One of the competitive advantages of the US has been its ability to draw top
talent from all over the world and not just its own citizens. Chinese citizens
leaving the US is not a good thing, but it is just one nationality. If China
manages to draw talent from everywhere, then the US has a real problem ahead
of it.

For example, my team in the US only has a few US citizens on it, most of us
are foreigners who moved here for the opportunities. While a few are Chinese,
the majority are from countries other than China and the US.

~~~
baybal2
> Does anybody know how hard it is for non-Chinese citizens to live and work
> in China?

It used to be easy... My first work visa to China took just 1 week to get: no
criminal check, no work history check, no academic credentials check, you just
get it.

Now people are saying it takes from 1 to 3 months.

Dark skinned people have hard time in China. Fat people, even worse.

Shenzhen looks like a totalitarian fairyland — a hard to convey impression. It
is one of the best cities by quality of life in Asia, but... you get those
1:00am police visits, ID checks everywhere, and you, being a foreigner, are a
magnet for all kinds of "overly ambitious" policemen.

Shenzhen is a pretty international city, but even today it is hard to avoid
crowds of onlookers, and unsolicited selfie requests.

Jobs... I'd say better than nothing for a foreigner. It is one of the best
places in China where a foreigner can get a meaningful job, but even that
doesn't make it a lot. Old links are essential here.

You had to come to the city like 10 years ago, to have a chance to network
with local businessmen. Not so much today. Rich businesspeople around are much
more insular these days.

A friend of mine once worked for Duan Yongping in nineties, and knew him
personally. 20 years later, that link still keep earning him top jobs to this
day.

The expat commune here is way smaller than it appears at first glance. I keep
bumping into people I met like 10 years ago, when I worked as a
translator/interpreter in a Singaporean sourcing company.

Dating scene. Kinda very, very random. Not so many local women will consider a
foreigner, and those who will are from two fringes of socioeconomic spectrum.
You can date a factory owner today, and a literal village girl tomorrow.

The city is _very_ young by Chinese standards. It was the one and only big
city in China with an average age below 30 in recent history. A lot of
youngsters still come from all over China, blindly seeking luck. It becomes
harder and harder for such types to establish themselves here with each year.

Shenzhen gets more expensive with each year and is about to outrun Shanghai as
China's most expensive city. The city turns less and less of a manufacturing
hub, and more and more of a "Dubai of the East"

The famed manufacturing industry today is a shadow of its former self.
Newcomers to Shenzhen ask me how it could've even been possible for the
manufacturing to be bigger than the cyclopic scale it is on now. I say to them
that the famous Huaqiang road market sprawl in its best years was spreading
for many city blocks, and on some days was reaching the central park. This is
how it was during the "Shanzhai" boom of 2008-2012. Since then, the industry
has been on the unending downward trend.

Transport, and getting around: much better than any US city, but there are
rough corners to the system. Gas scooters are banned, bigger electric scooters
are in grey zone. Only electric mopeds are allowed, and even that is not
given. Owning a car is more expensive in absolute terms than in US or Canada.

Food — very good, cuisines from all over China. Probably with exception of
northeast.

Weather — typical tropical weather. Nothing to add to that.

Now last one, having fun. Very much like Dubai — the place is damn boring.
Just like Dubai, a lot of glamour doesn't automatically mean a lot of fun.

~~~
victords
Hold on. What's the deal with being fat?

They're literally refusing visa because people are fat?

~~~
seattle_spring
Nothing to do with visas, it's just how others treat people that look
different there.

------
angarg12
> China’s tech sector has its own shorthand to describe the hours that
> employees work in the country: “9-9-6,” meaning from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six
> days a week.

> “Our factories are still talking to us at 10 p.m. or 11 p.m., sometimes well
> into midnight. They’re working on weekends, so things get done much faster,”
> Gui said. “Whereas back in San Francisco, after 5 p.m. people won’t respond
> to your emails and you can’t get anything done until the next day.”

If that is the price of fast innovation, I rather be a bit slow.

------
binarysolo
Eh, as a third culture kid with a US passport and 50%+ friends being
international/TCK - it's honestly because the VISA process is appalling.

Out of a sample of 10 international students I went to school with at Stanford
20 years ago (I just eyeballed my FB friend list and took 10, totally biased
anec-data I know):

• 4 are now citizens - all their green card processes took 7+ years, except
the one person who got it via marriage

• 2 are STILL in the green card process

• 1 intentionally went home for opportunity

• 3 left due to VISA expiration issues. 2 went to Europe, 1 went to Canada. 2
are CS grads, 1 has a PhD in ML.

It massively sucks. We're talking about amazingly resourceful people who got
raised at whatever sheep farm in Kenya and Uzbekistan, made it all the way to
Stanford via merit-based scholarships and what not, and then got ejected from
the US because national policy... and now some other country with friendlier
VISA policies got 'em.

~~~
magduf
I don't see why this "massively sucks". Obviously, the American people, and
the government they elected, don't really want these smart people in their
country contributing to their economy, so there's other countries (the ones
with friendlier visa policies) where they're more welcome and they should go.

You can claim that Americans are shooting themselves in the foot with these
policies, and electing people like Trump, but if that's what they want to
do...

~~~
someguydave
Trump has said many times that he wants a more meritocratic immigration
system. A combination of big business and pandering to minorities keeps
Congress from changing immigration from chain-migration to merit-based
immigration.

------
Ancalagon
> “Wang said the salaries of his 40-person team for two years cost $700,000.”

Good luck with that. If you’re averaging $10k per employee per year over the
long term, I guarantee anyone with the ability to be a good engineer is still
going to come to the US where they can make orders of magnitude more.

~~~
matz1
Or maybe US engineer is overpriced.

~~~
gscott
Considering companies will only hire an engineer from a top college, with top
scores, with huge student loans the pay should have to match.

------
fatjokes
More than that: the US gov't has declared their own tech giants a threat.
Meanwhile, the Chinese gov't is supporting theirs as a potential goldmine on
all fronts: national security, foreign policy, economic.

~~~
wobblegong
Good point, I've never thought about it that way. We usually see US tech firms
supporting the govt (and the resulting protests from their employees). But I
wonder how the climate were to change if the govt was proactive in supporting
the local tech firms instead.

------
otoburb
_" Wang Meng Qiu, a startup founder who graduated from Stanford University
with a doctorate in computer science, held jobs at Facebook and Twitter in
Silicon Valley before he moved to the outskirts of Shanghai to launch his own
drone company, Zero Zero Robotics.

Wang said the salaries of his 40-person team for two years cost $700,000."_

Generously assuming that the full 40-person team didn't onboard until year 2,
that's an annual average salary of only 17,500 USD per person. I know the
software development labour is cheaper in China, but quick comparisons
indicate that something is off with this figure. Maybe most of the 40-person
team are on an assembly line?

~~~
devy
> that's an annual average salary of only 17,500 USD per person.

That is realistic and in line with fresh out of college Computer Science
graduate market rate. I know that because I went to an undergraduate CS degree
in China.

Developers are working harder in China too. The famous 996 work schedule has
been prevalent in Internet software startups in China.[1] Hence the anti-996
movement.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/996_working_hour_system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/996_working_hour_system)

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Only from a third tier university. You aren’t going to get a tsignhua, pku, or
even beihang grad for that price.

~~~
devy
tsignhua CS grads are either going to study abroad or doing investment banking
jobs which pays more at entry level. Same with top tier university grads.

------
m463
Silicon Valley has changed a lot in the last 20-30 years.

The ability to physically design and create things has basically disappeared.
I'm not only talking about chips, but mechanical, electrical engineering and
all the miscellaneous disciplines associated with creating something in one
place.

That used to be the strength of the valley.

If you want to do software, ok, but that's arguably less location dependent.

~~~
adammunich
I agree but I think this can turn around, we've really only lost the quick-
turn PCB manufacturing. The talent is definitely still here.

~~~
magduf
It is? Doing what? The hardware work has mostly left the area, and when that
happens, skilled people either leave the area or go into different industries.
They don't just sit around waiting for the jobs to come back.

------
havetocharge
Talent will follow opportunity, so this shift in sentiment may reflect the
relative outlook on the level of opportunity that US provides relative to
China, at least for those who are able to work in China.

As an aside, the American immigration system leaves a lot to be desired in
terms of its efficiency, and may be a contributing factor.

~~~
mericantest
I think america is putting more money on trying to have natives fill these
jobs over making the immigration policy more efficient.

There is tons of potential being wasted in America and we really should focus
on our native citizens. Its been a while since america has been dominant in
the strength of our workforce and much of our current wealth is because of
past generations not the current one.

We should focus on changing that before relying on other nations to provide us
with skilled labor. It a national risk short and long term.

~~~
havetocharge
As a three time immigrant, I have diametrically opposing viewpoints. My view
is that immigration mostly benefits nations, and emigration always hurts them.
Immigration increases the labour capacity, and nations that utilize this
resource in a pragmatic manner are net beneficiaries.

My earlier point was around the fact that US isn't very efficient at managing
this resource (letting arbitrary people through the physical border, while
holding up highly educated folks in immigration queues for years).

~~~
someguydave
I think a majority of voters would like the immigration system to be better
enforced and more focused on highly skilled immigrants but there are powerful
interests who like the status quo.

------
Causality1
We're quite far from the scale tipping in that direction, but it makes me
curious about whether the US government has the legal authority to say
"educating foreigners is no longer in the national interest, therefore it is
no longer a valid reason to remain in the United States" and decimate the
foreign student population essentially overnight.

~~~
jonathankoren
The government can do whatever it wants when it comes to setting immigration
laws. It's an enumerated power.

F-1 (student) visas are already nonimmigration visas. After you graduate, you
have a few months of "optional practical training" (OPT) and then you're
expected to go home. Hopefully, you can get an H-1 ( _another_ nonimmigration
visa) to stay for at most six years, which is about how long it takes to get a
Green Card (permanent residency)[+].

I had heard that the reason why F-1s are nonimmigration is because back in the
1960s it was seen as foreign aid with Cold War benefits. Encourage people from
third world counties to come to the United States, see how great it is, and
then go back and build up their own countries. A decade or two out, you now
have a country friendly to US interests.

Maybe that made sense in the 1960s, but it seems like it stopped making sense
sometime in the 1980s, and certainly by the 90s.

We make it too hard to immigrate to the US. If I was king for the day, I'd
make F-1 visas immigration visas, or at least be able to fast track F-1s into
an immigration visa. The glacial pace, and the difficulty to immigrate is a
reason why people go back. I know people that ended up giving up on getting
Green Card, so moved to Toronto, and already has gotten Canadian permanent
residency.

[+] If you want to fast track your Green Card, marry a US citizen. You get it
in a couple of months.

~~~
natthub
> six years, which is about how long it takes to get a Green Card

Ha! Unless you're are an Indian or a Chinese, in which case it's more than 10
years (which is being quite optimistic)!!

~~~
newyankee
My research says it is 70+ year for EB3 visas entered this year assuming
nothing changes.

------
president
Quality of life (e.g. security, stability, happiness) for the average citizen
in the US seems to be on a downward trend. I imagine that is a big factor for
foreign tech workers leaving the country. It's not all about money.

~~~
allthecybers
Even a highly compensated US tech worker can be bankrupted by medical costs.
Seen it happen.

------
panda88888
An interesting tidbit for non-Mandarin Chinese speakers. The sea turtle
doesn’t refer to analogy of grown sea turtles returning to their home when
young, but it’s a homonym to 海歸 (same sounds as sea turtle 海龜), that roughly
means “return from sea (ie. abroad)”.

------
jorblumesea
If China can continue this growth, this trend will continue. But China's
financial system is a house of cards and it's unclear if they will make it out
of the next recession without significant damage. There's serious strategic
threats including opaque financial system, improper banking controls massive
"market rigging" and government corruption. No one knows the true state of the
Chinese economy, including China itself.

I wonder how many of these employees will make it back to the West eventually.
Big _if_ obviously as there are many unknowns.

[https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-
economy/article/2173461/c...](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-
economy/article/2173461/china-underestimating-its-us3-trillion-dollar-debt-
and-could)

[https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-
bernanke/2016/03/08/china...](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-
bernanke/2016/03/08/chinas-transparency-challenges/)

[https://www.ft.com/content/961b4b32-3fce-11e9-b896-fe36ec32a...](https://www.ft.com/content/961b4b32-3fce-11e9-b896-fe36ec32aece)

------
mensetmanusman
Honestly,

If the Chinese can be prevented from exporting their version of the prison
state, this could be a good thing in the near-medium term. (The U.S. imprisons
the most per capita)

China needs smart people there to transition the economy. India has been
massively slowed down by the brain drain to the U.S.

The more people out of poverty, the better.

------
NTDF9
A lot of these conversations miss two aspects completely:

1\. Smart STEM people are more inclined to having a family. Constant
uncertainty is not conducive to family. That will cause a lot of smart people
to be sea turtles.

2\. The most significant drawback of smart people congregating elsewhere is
that future American companies are fucked. There is just going to be a lot
more competition for products globally. Future Apple will have to fight
Chinese companies in India. Mariott will have to fight Oyo in China. Future
Tesla will have to fight BYD in Europe.

A LOT of our stock wealth is because other companies couldn't innovate as
rapidly because the US was draining those countries of this talent pool. With
this reversal, American companies will have a smaller pool of talent and will
get whacked everywhere. Its super unfortunate.

~~~
helen___keller
>1\. Smart STEM people are more inclined to having a family. Constant
uncertainty is not conducive to family. That will cause a lot of smart people
to be sea turtles.

Also, even for the well-compensated, it's financially very difficult to afford
the 'ol house & car dream in what I would expect are top locations for
immigrants (SF bay area, New York, Boston, Seattle, LA, ...). Certain parts of
China also have absurdly expensive real estate (Shanghai, Beijing), but rent
tends to be much more affordable and if you have family nearby the whole
housing situation becomes much easier.

------
tanilama
Nothing to be surprised about.

Hometown is almost more attractive if other factors considered to be
irrelevant. You have your native language, your family around, the food and
just familiarity of things, as comparing to be a foreigner in a country that
constantly put your status at risk.

Why America if it is hostile? What for?

------
dfeojm-zlib
As long as people keep coming to the US to get an education, that helps the
economics of academia; out-of-state tuition paid for by somebody else
(usually, countries or rich families) is $$$$. Maybe the problem is the US
isn't as welcoming socially, politically or bureaucratically (visa process) as
it once was? That's a PR image problem that the current political climate
tarnished through inept and ignorant messaging.

~~~
spectramax
Yep, we will have to wait until 2020 but if Trump ends his term, the next
president has a huge task of rebuilding the PR and get it back on track.

~~~
magduf
No, Trump is going to be there until 2024. There's very low likelihood that
the Democrats will unseat him.

~~~
helen___keller
Can you also tell me tomorrow's lottery numbers? Thanks

------
xmly
The president is asking the congresswomen to go back.

------
HomeDeLaPot
Well of course they're leaving, I'm seeing firsthand how hard it is for them
to stay here. Employment authorization takes so long that I've seen students
lose the internships and job offers they have lined up. That's on top of all
the culture/language differences and whatnot. I don't blame them one bit for
going back home.

------
m3kw9
700,000$ for 40 people for 2 years? 4 ppl here make that much in 1 year, why
would they go back other than do startups?

~~~
tzakrajs
It must be that the cost of living in China is less than $0 per year.

------
sct202
Baidu's founder was a sea turtle. He worked at Infoseek before returning to
China to start Baidu.

~~~
walamaking
Probably why Baidu is such a terrible search engine.

------
Rch_East
It doesn't make sense for America to educate its rivals. We should also be
wary of Universities turning into backdoor immigration schemes - this has
already happened in Australia and lead to a massive reduction in education
quality.

The focus should be on training Americans to fill American jobs - and any
immigration scheme should be arranged with military, economic, and cultural
Allies only (UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea).

~~~
pinkfoot
Is that the full list?

~~~
DiogenesKynikos
For the sake of American cuisine, at least France should be added to the list.

~~~
pinkfoot
Freedom fries? :)

------
AimForTheBushes
Sure, Chinese nationals are returning home but who else is following? Living
in China is about as attractive as being a character in 1984.

~~~
boringg
And only those who don't value personal freedom. (read Tiananmen square,
Uighur camps as your starting examples). Sure the US loses out on some talent,
but that will always happen and once we move past the current administration
we will pick up talent from elsewhere if need be.

------
xxxpupugo
Did I read it correctly? Threatened 'brain drain'? So 'brain drain' to US is
being viewed as a positive thing?

I think the idea is to send people back to build their countries, not to stay
here to build America. This is indeed a good news that we are spreading the
talents and knowledge and eventually prosperity more evenly across the globe.
US has enjoyed this monopoly over talents for too long, and that is probably
not a good thing and definitely shouldn't be taken for granted.

