
History tells us what will happen next with Brexit and Trump - mirzmaster
https://medium.com/@theonlytoby/history-tells-us-what-will-happen-next-with-brexit-trump-a3fefd154714#.yvjf7w9ty
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dsfyu404ed
You could spin the story the exact opposite way if you want.

Trump is elected. Relations with Russia improve because Trump and Putin can be
in the same room long enough to agree that the lines on the map and the exact
form of oppressive government in any particular middle eastern nation are
mostly irrelevant as long as oil flows through the pipelines and money flows
through the banks. Meanwhile Europe comes out better because the post-brexit
panic causes the EU to seriously revaluate its immigration and related
economic issues which results in meaningful improvement. Increased global
prosperity causes China to sideline it's steady encroachment on its neighbors
because who cares about some island when being on good business terms with
everyone is far more valuable.

There's never a shortage of pessimistic opinions leading up to any change in
leadership. The ability to publish any particular one online doesn't make it
any more legitimate.

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norea-armozel
Or a Trump Presidency leads to a world war between China and America since he
thinks backing out on trade deals with China is a good idea. But he doesn't
seem to realize that China is kept in check by those trade deals since the CCP
inner party would rather have their people happy, paid, and fed. A China
that's isolated in the world market and without a means to turn a profit on
private and state enterprises is a China that has few options that aren't
militarist in nature. That means China has plenty of reason to invade Taiwan,
Vietnam, and the Philippines without question. Right now, we're pretty lucky
China still hasn't a sufficient navy to combat our own but if Trump or his
ideological successors take POTUS I can see China just throwing as much man
power at the naval problem to kick our asses just as a matter of settling a
(nearly) two century old score.

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DefaultUserHN
I see. So that's how World World 3 will start - all because Trump refuse to
make bad trade deals with China.

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norea-armozel
Or he decides to cut off trade immediately under some provisions in existing
trade treaties without any attempt to negotiate any new tariffs (which China
has been receptive to in the last year) which gives them no other recourse
than to expand militarily to aide in the growth of their economy.

~~~
DefaultUserHN
Appeasement does not work. History has shown us that time again and again.

China: "Make bad deals with us, OR WE WILL EXPAND OUT MILITARY!"

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DrTung
It's easy to do a pessimistic forecast:

In order to sway the opinion Trump will need a fake attack on US soil around
October, something big and spectacular.

Then join our TTT movement:

"Trump for a third term!"

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davidgerard
Title is "may", not "will".

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bbctol
It looks like the title's been edited after posting, as the url still says
"will"\--it's definitely a change in the right direction, as while I think
this is a good article, it's certainly a little hyperbolic in its language.

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mindcrash
I also recommend reading the first comment on that Medium article from top to
bottom. Hits the nail straight on its head.

