
Silicon Valley Tries to Alter the Perception of Cannabis - mackmcconnell
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/12/technology/marijuana-start-ups-see-an-industry-on-the-cusp-of-a-breakthrough.html?ref=technology
======
exelius
Very few people are going to get rich off of cannabis. There's really nothing
novel about any part of the industry except that it's now legal. Indoor
growing / hydroponics are used for a wide variety of plants, so the tech on
the production front is already mature (if not commoditized). Because it's
pretty cheap to produce and doesn't take a ton of special knowledge, wide
legalization will see a race to the bottom on price (along with razor-thin
margins for growers). Prices are still very high right now because nobody can
achieve sufficient scale (again, thanks to the weird legal environment) but
once they do, prices and margins will fall and a lot of growers will get
bought out or go out of business. It doesn't really cost much to grow super-
high quality marijuana on an industrial scale.

The rest of the value chain is really nothing novel either if you ignore the
weird regulatory environment that currently exists. A retail store selling
weed is not much different from any other retail store. A delivery service is
still subject to the same fundamental issues as any other delivery service --
and when weed becomes really cheap, a $10 delivery fee may not make sense when
you're buying $20 worth of weed. There's room in the market for differing
tastes and consumption methods, but those too are more or less commoditized
and can use general-purpose industrial processing equipment.

There's a boom right now because the market is growing quickly, but there will
be a corresponding crash once the consumer market starts to hit the point
where scale matters.

~~~
Zombieball
I personally feel you underestimate how much money there is to be made DURING
the race to the bottom. Sure 5 years from now you may not be able to charge a
$10 delivery fee. But that's 5 years where you can, grow a company, pivot when
the time is right and new market trends emerge.

I think your sentiment towards the growing side is spot on though. Large
players with experience growing produce and other plants will swoop in and
dominate.

~~~
exelius
Delivery businesses in general are hard to make a buck in. Most of the ones
currently operating are only successful because they either charge sky-high
delivery fees or they're operating at a loss to gain market share. It's not
like hiring people to deliver things is a new concept.

------
Amorymeltzer
>People in the marijuana industry have lately taken to saying that legal
marijuana is the next Internet, an untrammeled new market opportunity that is
just waiting for its own big brands, the Google and Facebook of pot.

This feels like a very poor analogy. Legal marijuana is perhaps "an
untrammeled new market opportunity," but I sincerely doubt it will completely
revolutionize the majority of human business and recreational activity within
a few decades as the internet has.

~~~
ksherlock
Too bad there isn't an existing industry based on smoking dried, rolled up
plant leaves that they could compare themselves to. Heck, if they realized
such an industry existed, they could disrupt it.

~~~
cafard
Back in the 1970s somebody wrote a novel, _Acapulco Gold_ , about roughly this
situation. I suppose that it is long out of print, but it shouldn't be hard to
find on Amazon.

Edit: Actually, I think it was about Big Tobacco disrupting the cannabis
business, not vice-versa.

~~~
sanderjd
It seems incredibly likely that Big Tobacco will eventually dominate the
cannabis business. The current protection is that the legal environment is
still to fraught for corporations of that stature to take the risk.

------
Animats
What may derail this is the proposal to move marijuana from Schedule I to
Schedule II.[1] That makes marijuana a prescribable drug. This makes it
insurance-reimbursable, but distribution is through the usual chain for
addictive prescription drugs, with non-renewable prescriptions for specific
quantities and reporting to the DEA. This would make it more available for
medical purposes, but less available for recreational purposes.

[1] [http://www.thedailychronic.net/2015/49457/hillary-clinton-
en...](http://www.thedailychronic.net/2015/49457/hillary-clinton-endorses-
marijuanas-reclassification-to-schedule-ii/)

~~~
brianlweiner
Moving to Schedule 2 is a policy that may have made sense twenty years ago.
We're well past that at this point - MJ is legal in several states and the sky
isn't falling.

~~~
fapjacks
Right, quite the opposite. In those states, drug arrests are down, prison
population is dropping, tax dollars are being collected. It's looking like the
right kind of policy from just about every perspective.

~~~
intopieces
>drug arrests are down

Serious question, because this point gets brought up often in this discussion:
Did people expect drug arrests to go _up_ or even stay the same? If you remove
the ability of police to arrest someone for something, don't arrests then
naturally go down?

~~~
tikhonj
One of the main recurring arguments against legalizing marijuana is that it is
a "gateway drug": people who try it are more likely to go on to harder drugs
like opium or cocaine. This means that some people legitimately believe that
legalizing it would get more people into these other drugs and increase the
overall number of drug crimes.

It doesn't really make sense to me, but it seems to be one of the most common
rationalizations for being against legalization.

~~~
intopieces
>This means that some people legitimately believe that legalizing it would get
more people into these other drugs and increase the overall number of drug
crimes.

Okay, but according to the ACLU 52% of drug arrests are for marijuana. I know
we've already exited the realm of logic with the gateway drug theory but to
believe that legalizing marijuana would result in an _instant_ increase in
drug arrests -- that is, enough to overtake the _majority of drug arrests in a
single category_ , seems patently absurd.

[0][https://www.aclu.org/gallery/marijuana-arrests-
numbers](https://www.aclu.org/gallery/marijuana-arrests-numbers)

~~~
betenoire
Yes, that idea is silly and that's why none of us have seen anyone making such
a polemic argument. I think you know the answer, people vote with emotion, not
with facts.

------
bashinator
I know that HN often doesn't care for wordplay, but the inverse of this
headline is both funny and true - "Cannabis tries to Alter the Perception of
Silicon Valley".

~~~
johan_larson
Anyone who thinks a plant has agency, and can "try" anything, has been smoking
something.

~~~
bashinator
Oh come on, it's used to indicate intention of non-sentient objects all the
time. "The electron tries to fall into the lowest energy state."

------
xirdstl
Is getting medical marijuana really as easy as a quick video chat with
symptoms of frequent heartburn? Prohibiting it seems especially ridiculous if
that is the case.

~~~
rm_-rf_slash
Dude, not even. When I worked in the Valley I went to the THC doctor's office
with a whole backstory about how I work for a big tech company and I drank to
handle the stress etc.

When I got there I was given a medical form to fill out. The third page
actually asked why I wanted medical marijuana. I simply wrote "anxiety" and
figured I'd explain it later. Then I got the call that the doctor was ready to
see me. I gave him the form, he flipped straight to the third page, then said:

"Hmm...anxiety...when you go to the dispensary, you're going to want to ask
for Indica."

~~~
Zelphyr
Well? Did it help? :)

~~~
rm_-rf_slash
Marijuana is an interesting drug. On one hand, it is like a stress reset
button (along with a good night's sleep), but on the other, it's impossible to
OD or feel sick on it, so, unlike alcohol, you can binge or have it all the
time and feel few adverse side effects.

Thing is, studies have shown that too much use can dampen the brain's ability
to absorb (not produce!) dopamine, making everyday successes feel less
significant.

So yes, it did help, but it comes with caveats. Just because you can blaze all
day erryday doesn't mean you should.

~~~
corin_
> _it 's impossible to (..) feel sick on it_

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitey_%28drugs%29](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitey_%28drugs%29)

How much it too much would depend on your body and tolerance, but I've seen
plenty of people feel sick from smoking too much.

~~~
rm_-rf_slash
Can't say I've ever felt sick from smoking too much, except for a time when
the munchies took over and I ended up ordering delivery from two restaurants
in one night.

~~~
corin_
Could be that you've never smoked enough to get there, could be you're just
lucky. Certainly it's a lot harder to feel shit after smoking than drinking.

~~~
rm_-rf_slash
>Could be that you've never smoked enough to get there

Believe me, I've tried.

------
jweir
Something to consider is the effect growing will have on the power grid. In
Portland there have been some blackouts caused by grow houses:

[http://www.oregonlive.com/marijuana/index.ssf/2015/11/mariju...](http://www.oregonlive.com/marijuana/index.ssf/2015/11/marijuana_grows_cause_power_bl.html)

~~~
wavefunction
Our power grid is rickety and flakey, it needs some serious upgrades. 20,000W
of grow lights is what, 40 modern desktops with 500W power supplies? The
problem you're mentioning is more about fault tolerance and missing fail-over
modes.

~~~
functionwave
And growing in residential spaces that were never wired for that much power
draw, instead of commercial/industrial areas.

~~~
lmm
I'd be surprised. Just because it's legal doesn't make it exempt from zoning
laws, and surely if you're moving into it because of legalization you'd want
to stay legal with the rest of your business.

------
kstenerud
Prohibition will slowly ebb until it reaches a tipping point, just like it did
with alcohol. We've already seen that the deleterious effects of cannabis are
minimal. Heck, if I weren't one of the unlucky few on whom it has no effect,
I'd probably use it too.

~~~
91bananas
Can you expand on why it doesn't have effect on you?

~~~
beachstartup
it's bullshit. if you gave him an edible he'd be higher than a kite, just like
every other person on earth.

~~~
WildUtah
A lot of people with no smoking experience don't get enough in the lungs the
first few times. Actual unresponsiveness to THC is very rare if it exists at
all.

------
hoodoof
Cannabis should be treated the same as tobacco.

------
draw_down
The funny thing about stoner stereotypes is how much lazy thinking is
involved. And so people who like cannabis but don't fit the stereotype just
shut up about it. I guess it's time to do away with the stereotypes, now that
there is money to be made! Funny how that works too.

------
davidf18
There are over 400,000 emergency room visits per year from marijuana. THC has
biphasic activity. At low doses it can create the desired effects but at
higher doses it has the opposite effects. These effects include irritability
and even psychosis.

[1]New England Journal of Medicine (2014): Adverse Health Effects of Marijuana
Use:
[http://dfaf.org/assets/docs/Adverse%20health%20effects.pdf](http://dfaf.org/assets/docs/Adverse%20health%20effects.pdf)

[2] [http://www.menshealth.com/medical-
marijuana/](http://www.menshealth.com/medical-marijuana/)

~~~
trhway
>There are over 400,000 emergency room visits per year from marijuana.

"In 2010, there were approximately 12.1 million diabetes-related ED visits for
adults aged 18 years or older"

[https://www.hcup-us.ahrq.gov/reports/statbriefs/sb167.jsp](https://www.hcup-
us.ahrq.gov/reports/statbriefs/sb167.jsp)

Should we outlaws sugar and high fructose corn syrup ?

Anyway, looking at the full statistics on drug abuse emergency rooms visits it
doesn't look like total [hypothetically successful] prohibition of marijuana
would have any effect as OTC, other drugs and alcohol would obviously fill the
void:

[http://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/drugfacts/drug-
related...](http://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/drugfacts/drug-related-
hospital-emergency-room-visits)

"Highlights from the 2009 Drug Abuse Warning Network

In 2009, there were nearly 4.6 million drug-related ED visits nationwide.
These visits included reports of drug abuse, adverse reactions to drugs, or
other drug-related consequences. Almost 50 percent were attributed to adverse
reactions to pharmaceuticals taken as prescribed, and 45 percent involved drug
abuse. DAWN estimates that of the 2.1 million drug abuse visits—

    
    
        27.1 percent involved nonmedical use of pharmaceuticals (i.e., prescription or OTC medications, dietary supplements)
     
       21.2 percent involved illicit drugs
    
        14.3 percent involved alcohol, in combination with other drugs

"

~~~
davidf18
If you take the time to read the articles from NEJM, PNAS, and so on that have
been cited, then you'll see the dangers of marijuana use. Please don't be
critical until you've read the medical studies.

~~~
GoodOldNe
ER doc here.

I have seen people in the ED with marijuana-related complaints. I can count
the total number on my hands. Every single one of those patients has been
absolutely fine. Am I aware of patients with marijuana-related complaints who
weren't fine? Sure, a few case reports. But overall, the "dangers" of
marijuana do not exist in a real sense, compared to the dangers of every other
recreationally-used/abused substance out there, or compared to prescription
medications, both psychotropic and not. Not even close.

