
Are HN submissions dominated by a small elite of users? - jhh
I was wondering the same thing when I recently saw this blog post: https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=6956690<p>I thought it would be easy to find out how karma is distributed among users using the HNsearch API.<p>Unfortunately, it&#x27;s not that easy because this API is not optimized for fetching massive amounts of data. What I could do was looking at the 1000 users with the most karma. I separated those into ten chunks and looked at the total sum of Karma per chunk of 100 users. This is the result:<p>http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.chartgo.com&#x2F;share.do?id=6cca3d09aa<p>(Data: 
[ (0, 2941707),
  (1, 1314760),
  (2, 936226),
  (3, 745944),
  (4, 636533),
  (5, 557441),
  (6, 493996),
  (7, 449999),
  (8, 413963),
  (9, 384491)]
)<p>So as you can see the 1st chunk is pretty dominant but then it kind of flattens out. So are HN submissions dominated by a small elite? It obviously depends on your definitions, but I guess not.<p>It would be interesting to have better data available. Did I miss a better way to query the API? Here&#x27;s the Python script which I used to query the API: https:&#x2F;&#x2F;gist.github.com&#x2F;johannes-gehrs&#x2F;77a92284e3509f2ae960
======
tptacek
If you're talking about submission karma, clearly no. I follow the submissions
of a selection of HN users I've known for awhile, all of whom are karma
leaders, and their submissions are often as not buried on page 4 or 5 with 2-3
votes.

If you're talking about comment karma, clearly yes. I could write a comment
consisting of randomly chosen names from the Chicago phone book and someone
would upvote it. Name recognition has that effect, as does a small group of
people who seem to follow my comments deliberately (as I do for the list of
people in my profile).

~~~
bananacurve
grellas posts are particularly buried because they often don't subscribe to
the hivemind, but they are always enlightening.

~~~
tptacek
'grellas comments are (justifiably) routinely stapled to the top of the
threads on which they appear.

------
sheetjs
Keep in mind that karma includes both submissions and comments (unlike reddit,
where they are separate).

For comments, at least, there is a clear bias where comments from users with
higher karma tend to stay at the top of the comment page longer, regardless of
the votes for other comments. This is intentional and definitely contributes
to the effect

~~~
interstitial
Sort of a "founder effect" built into a site for founders. How meta.

------
mathattack
I suspect that you'll find it to be some kind of power law distribution, which
implies that measures like Standard Deviation won't be so useful. A quick look
at the top 1000 that you provided suggests this might be the case. But the top
100 users don't dominate the top 1000, let alone the entire population. There
does seem to be some leveling off, though it's unclear how steady that will
be.

Net - domination is too strong a word. Dominated might imply 20% of the karma
in 20 users, and this clearly isn't the case. Even defining the Elite as 100
doesn't get us this.

------
mixmastamyk
Yes, take a look at the "new" page. On it you'll see 30 recent submissions,
most of which are just as appropriate as those on the home page. But, they
don't get any votes, why not?

I don't think it typically matters whether the submitter has name recognition
or karma, but rather how many friends and colleagues the person can rally to
their cause. All it takes is about 10 points in the first hour to get to the
front page and then it can "ride the wave" from there. This is an easy
threshold for people with large professional networks, companies, with friends
in SV et al. Many people here know each other. Yes, there are some technical
counter-measures, but there is only so much that can be done.

This is not to say that a user acting alone has no chance of reaching the home
page. However, after a few years of frequenting this site, I believe that most
of the posts hitting the front page have had a boost such as I described
above.

My personal experience anecdote is that, over several years (also considering
prior accounts), working as a "loner", that I've never been able to get more
than a few meager votes on a submission. Even if they were highly on topic,
even if I got up at 6am Pacific, supposedly the best time to do it. Maybe I'm
unlucky or my submissions suck, but I rarely bother any more.

~~~
tptacek
My impression is that suppression of voting rings, which is what you're
describing with your "group of 10 friends" example, is something that the HN
maintainers actually spend a lot of effort on; I get this both firsthand from
the maintainers that I actually know, and from the fact that I feel like I
regularly manage to do (innocuous) things that trip the detector.

~~~
judk
HN voting is a trivial example of selection bias. If frontpage was determined
by a random sampling of the user base (weighted by karma or age if you like),
instead of whoever may go looking for the post, it would be more fair. One of
the reddit devs suggested something like this recently, putting a New post on
every page.

------
nemothekid
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1%25_rule_(Internet_culture)](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1%25_rule_\(Internet_culture\))

------
hnletter
A little late to this, but for my Hacker Newsletter project I keep track of of
the number of times a user gets on the top three pages:

    
    
      337 shawndumas
      312 ColinWright
      298 iProject
      291 Libertatea
      214 danso
      197 llambda
      165 Lightning
      163 tokenadult
      158 sethbannon
      147 mtgx
      144 evo_9
      120 DanielRibeiro
      115 denzil_correa, jonbaer
      111 lelf
      102 001sky
      101 dmor
      98 coloneltcb
      97 Tsiolkovsky, craigkerstiens, dsr12, mh_
      95 ssclafani
      90 jseliger
      89 jamesbritt
      87 JumpCrisscross
      85 Garbage
      83 wallflower
      82 luu
      81 antr, protomyth
      77 anigbrowl, codegeek
      74 aaronbrethorst
      73 jgrahamc, pg
      71 uladzislau
      70 sinak, steveklabnik
      69 RougeFemme
      68 cleverjake, derpenxyne, swohns
      67 _pius
      66 jamesjyu, rosser, wslh
      64 Pr0, eplanit
      63 Brajeshwar, sk2code, uptown
      62 bane, stfu
      61 teawithcarl
      59 ghosh, joeyespo, ph0rque
      58 gnosis
      57 r0h1n, scholia
      56 AndrewDucker, cpeterso, ohjeez
      55 bpierre, cyphersanctus, gruseom
      54 conductor
      52 nikunjk
      51 Suraj-Sun, kirillzubovsky
      50 lispython
      49 MikeCapone, WestCoastJustin, co_pl_te, duck, robin_reala
      48 Anon84, ca98am79, taylorbuley
      47 fraqed, morphics, nkurz, rpm4321
      46 jmduke, kumarski, nreece
      45 georgecmu
      44 daegloe, rdl
      43 donohoe, kunle, olivercameron
      42 tanglesome
      41 austengary, ck2, jnazario
      40 interconnector, rnyman, sonabinu, wikiburner, zoowar
      39 cdvonstinkpot, pwg, revorad
      38 1337biz, hepha1979, jeffbarr, mhb, zdw
      37 fogus, kjhughes, vectorbunny
      36 Cbasedlifeform, DanBC, DiabloD3, Reltair, acremades, geetarista
      35 AndreyKarpov, jessaustin, mxfh, prostoalex, raganwald, rbanffy
      34 wglb
      33 CrankyBear, cryptoz, hackhackhack, kposehn, nvk
      32 MarlonPro, bcn, npguy, qubitsam, techinsidr
      31 Ashuu, Baustin, caffeinewriter, drucken, edent, iamtechaddict, ilamont, mariuz, mikecane, rmah, rohshall, shill, whoishiring
      30 eguizzo, eksith, gklein, lukashed, talhof8
      29 Sami_Lehtinen, ari_elle, cwan, espeed, gwern, jacquesm, mitmads, sgdesign, superchink, velodrome, wyclif
      28 Quekster, X4, clicks, esalazar, iamwil, jaf12duke, javinpaul, laurent123456, recoiledsnake, vanwilder77, zt
      27 6thSigma, ValentineC, aespinoza, ananyob, anu_gupta, awwstn, bavidar, dave1010uk, ekm2, pajju, rkudeshi, sdoering, yapcguy
      26 DanielBMarkham, bitsweet, brudgers, hornokplease, jcr, tptacek, whalesalad
      25 EzGraphs, Hirvesh, adventured, albertzeyer, barredo, johns, jpadilla_, kevin_morrill, kmfrk, mmastrac, mooreds, mrb, niggler, ot, prateekj, saurabh, shrikant, tambourine_man, thibaut_barrere, tjaerv, usaphp
      24 amerf1, coffeemug, dangoldin, neya, qiqing, signa11, twapi, w1ntermute, zrail
      23 Dekku, Shivetya, duggieawesome, ingve, jalanco, mikeevans, ninthfrank07, npalli, olalonde, playhard, rachbelaid, rb2e, subsystem
      22 adamnemecek, amarsahinovic, aritraghosh007, chmars, colinprince, ctoth, dutchbrit, eranation, jashkenas, jmacd, joshfraser, kine, lowglow, mike_esspe, muratmutlu, napolux, redDragon, rrhoover, tareqak, youngerdryas, yread, ytNumbers
      21 T-A, akandiah, anon1385, breck, dpaluy, glazskunrukitis, gridscomputing, homakov, ianstormtaylor, jusben1369, kunai, mindcrime, msvan, onosendai, peterkchen, prajjwal, pron, schrofer, sp332, treskot, ttunguz, urlwolf, ximeng
      20 BerislavLopac, BruceM, Jaigus, a3voices, abdophoto, angersock, boh, brandnewlow, chinmoy, chrisacky, cperciva, fekberg, ivoflipse, jasonshen, julien, llamataboot, mjn, mmahemoff, platz, shakes, smit, soundsop, speeder, tmoretti, tocomment, vellum
      19 RobAley, SanderMak, WadeF, bencevans, bitcartel, clarkm, declan, experiment0, gasull, goronbjorn, hartleybrody, jejune06, jkuria, k-mcgrady, kevingibbon, mijustin, minimaxir, njoglekar, obilgic, ohadfrankfurt, pclark, rainmaker23, robdoherty2, rubikscube, sciwiz, stevewilhelm, tdrnd, timf, twakefield, wamatt
      18 10char, ForFreedom, Pasanpr, aynlaplant, bsg75, cs702, deviceguru, dotmanish, ezl, jheitzeb, jstreebin, julien421, orrsella, pain_perdu, philfreo, polskibus, rblion, ridruejo, rmason, sew, swombat
      17 MaysonL, ananddass, barmstrong, bconway, bergie, crabasa, dmmalam, dsego, dshankar, equilibrium, fejr, ferdo, gebe, jkopelman, josephby, mikeleeorg, mkrecny, nashequilibrium, petenixey, petercooper, petrel, profquail, ra, replicatorblog, songzme, spking, taytus, ujeezy, wrongc0ntinent
      16 Adrock, Impossible, LiveTheDream, StavrosK, aashaykumar92, afshinmeh, ajaymehta, cdl, choult, damian2000, danboarder, daw___, electic, esolyt, followmylee, franze, giis, greenyoda, gregpurtell, hunvreus, jdorfman, jdp23, jellyksong, jorde, jordn, karamazov, linux_devil, lleims, mahmoudimus, maskofsanity, mjhea0, narad, nate, p4bl0, peter123, rfreytag, sciurus, sebg, sharkweek, spindritf, stevewillensky, tosh, tshtf, xmpir, zengr
      15 Ataub24, FredericJ, MIT_Hacker, Mithrandir, adulau, apress, areski, austenallred, babawere, bhauer, bitops, bmmayer1, bradleybuda, ckelly, cooldeal, czr80, dan1234, danielpal, gits1225, grey-area, groundCode, hamidr, hawkharris, jeffreyfox, lucb1e, mayop100, mikeknoop, pdknsk, relation, robbiet480, rodriguezcommaj, rpsubhub, sasvari, sheri, smacktoward, thejteam, thinkcomp, vinhnx, xtraclass
      14 0cool, Alex3917, ComputerGuru, Peroni, SparksZilla, amazedsaint, anons2011, apoorvamehta, bifrost, blacktulip, bradly, brandonb, bslatkin, c-oreills, carlosgg, charlieirish, chwolfe, codelion, davidroberts, dbaupp, dendory, dennybritz, draegtun, dsl, e1ven, edwintorok, enneff, glazemaster, grej, harryzhang, ishener, ivankirigin, japhyr, jarederondu, jkaljundi, johndcook, joshuacc, justincormack, kamaal, kanamekun, lisper, mathattack, networked, nickmain, pjvds, pragmatictester, pykello, robg, sabalaba, samspenc, sinnerswing, technologizer, ternaryoperator, thewarrior, timr, titlex, watermel0n, wlll
      13 6ren, AlexMuir, CrunchyJams, DavidChouinard, Kopion, acav, alter8, asanwal, benjlang, bra-ket, brettcvz, bryanh, bussetta, chrismealy, cinquemb, cpleppert, creamyhorror, cwilson, davidw, detcader, dfc, digisth, ekianjo, endtwist, gatsby, glaugh, gulbrandr, ics, jfaucett, jlongster, kn0thing, larrys, lenkendall, libovness, lukaseder, mactitan, marban, mgunes, michaelrbock, neeee, noinput, palidanx, paulschlacter, plessthanpt05, porker, pytrin, rjsamson, rohin, rpledge, samsolomon, sebkomianos, selmnoo, sethev, smaili, srathi, t0dd, techaddict009, tellarin, tilt, tlrobinson, tomasien, trendspotter, turoczy, vyrotek, waffle_ss, waterlesscloud, weu
      12 31reasons, ChuckMcM, CrazedGeek, DaNmarner, Ecio78, Fletch137, GuiA, ISL, IgorPartola, JacksonGariety, Kilo-byte, Rickasaurus, RockyMcNuts, Sealy, SteliE, aaronpk, abraham, achalkley, akos, alexholehouse, ankitoberoi, anujkk, bberson, bcl, bjansn, bjonathan, brianchu, btilly, bwertz, casca, cgi_man, changdizzle, chaz, chriscampbell, cocoflunchy, cramforce, d4vlx, daigoba66, dandrewsen, dctoedt, deusclovis, dmoney67, doh, dwynings, eladgil, enmaku, evolve2k, feelthepain, flippyhead, ghshephard, googletron, gz5, hansy, hkmurakami, hornbaker, irollboozers, jnoller, joxie, juliangamble, kareemm, kitcar, metajack, microwise, mindstab, mmariani, morisy, mpweiher, negrit, nekojima, nqureshi, paraschopra, pascal07, pauljonas, pbiggar, pearjuice, peterkelly, poissonpie, robheaton, seminatore, sherm8n, spooneybarger, stesch, taigeair, thegarside, theoutlander, tikhonj, tnorthcutt, uvdiv, vog, vu0tran, weisser, yeleti, zan2434
      11 Amadou, BIackSwan, Cieplak, Swizec, TDL, adrianhoward, aelaguiz, afschwartz, alok-g, aram, benhowdle89, benwerd, cstross, darxius, davidsmith8900, dboles99, decklin, devx, diggan, dkasper, dohertyjf, eduardordm, edw519, eibrahim, ekpyrotic, elleferrer, epenn, fatiherikli, frankdenbow, friism, guiseppecalzone, haven, hudibras, iand, igrigorik, immad, infoman, jacoblyles, jamest, jbaudanza, jdmitch, jgv, jipumarino, johnjlocke, jordanmessina, jpmc, judegomila, kloncks, knes, kogir, ldayley, leephillips, lest, lettergram, luigi, marcieoum, mazsa, memoryfailure, moonboots, morefranco, nbashaw, ndesaulniers, nonrecursive, nsns, nsp, null_ptr, octopus, oleganza, patrickaljord, pavel_lishin, philip1209, rasengan, rdemmer, remi, rfnslyr, rvivek, salimmadjd, sgrove, shared4you, sillysaurus2, simonreed, spdy, speednoise, stollercyrus, swannodette, teamgb, thehodge, tippytop, tlongren, tomse, tortilla, trevin, twog, ukd1, whit537, willvarfar, wiradikusuma, xijuan, yitchelle, zachinglis, zhs
      10 AirbnbNerds, Avalaxy, CaptainZapp, Danieru, JanLaussmann, MattRogish, Maven911, Mitt, SonicSoul, Xcelerate, andreiursan, andrewnez, antman, austinhallock, bdehaaff, bearwithclaws, bevenky, binarybits, blackhole, brown9-2, ceeK, chaostheory, cheeaun, chewxy, chrislloyd, clarky07, cobrausn, cyang08, dazbradbury, dcope, denysonique, dhotson, diminium, dirkk0, dmitri1981, dsowers, dylangs1030, dz0ny, edtechdev, fecak, felipebueno, fmavituna, giorgiofontana, gkuan, gregman, hboon, hippo33, hodgesmr, imkevinxu, jacobwg, jashmenn, jayadevan, jazzychad, jballanc, jf, jkarneges, josh2600, jpatokal, jvns, jwallaceparker, k33l0r, kafkaesque, kinlan, kintamanimatt, krat0sprakhar, kyledrake, lukedeering, maccman, malloc47, marojejian, matt1, maudlinmau5, mdturnerphys, mecredis, milesf, misiti3780, mjfern, molecule, mparramon, mschonfeld, nathanbarry, nileshd, ovechtrick, pavs, pearkes, petethomas, phenylene, philk10, pkrein, r4vik, radley, ramisms, robhawkes, rocky1138, rsobers, sidcool, siong1987, smanuel, stefan_kendall, sw007, swah, swampthing, swanson, sweis, techdog, thingsilearned, timjahn, tylermenezes, ukdm, will_brown, wsieroci, yesplorer, yonasb, zacharyvoase

~~~
judk
Can you post a windowed version over say the last 3 months? Some of those
accounts are very old.

~~~
duck
I'm away from my computer right now, but I'll post something like that in a
day or two.

------
peterwwillis
Look through the submission list of each user whose posts make it to the top,
or of all of the users submitting to new. You'll see if the stories each user
posts gains lots of points; if they don't, it's all comment karma.

------
minimaxir
Any Karma measure analysis would be biased since Karma is accumulated through
both Links and Comments (in contrast with Reddit, which splits both
measurements).

"Dominated" is a flawed qualifier since Karma is not a zero-sum game.

------
maaku
There's a book you should read called "The 80/20 Principle". It might help you
understand better how this sort of thing naturally happens, and why it is to
be expected and nothing wrong about it.

------
pearjuice
No, they are dominated by the common denonimator and that is a massive flaw of
vote-based user input. You will only see politically correct, left winged and
in-tone liberal opinions and support everywhere. Mutual backpatting is
encouraged and because of these traits, the circle continues.

~~~
AutoCorrect
echo chamber depending on first (maybe most numerous) adopters that self-
reinforces by driving away dissenting voices. I agree 100%

