

Why the end of scarcity will change the economics of everything - ajtaylor
http://mashable.com/2011/04/28/scarcity-economics/

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joshklein
Not to detract from the significance of this incredible revolution in
technology we are all a part of, but it begs mentioning that the majority of
commercial activity is divorced from this paradigm. Regardless, the headline
is sensationalist, even if you limit your sample to "digital content."

It's still the wild west out there, so people approach the production of
(commercial) digital content without enough economic realism. When this domain
is more established, I don't believe (commercial) digital content will be such
a commodity.

I mean, use common sense: aren't YOU suffering from an inability to
differentiate between what is and is not worth paying attention to online?
Wouldn't you "pay-to-play" if someone got it really, really, really right? I
know I would.

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latch
When you say "the end of scarcity", most of us think of unlimited energy and
raw material. The OP is really just talking about information (which is
significant, but truly in a different league).

This echoes the "Information wants to be free"
mantra/movement/slogan/whatever. While this movement is quite old (relatively
speaking) and widespread, I find that Wired is still one of the more on-the-
ball publications with respect to this (they talk about it a lot, and
generally cover it well).

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sliverstorm
_Information wants to be free_

I have personally always thought that argument to be entirely BS. A piece of
software can be considered information; it's just bits in order. Therefore, it
should be free. Music can be considered information for the same reasons. It's
a convenient argument, because it gets us all the things we want, for free!
But EVERYTHING is information. YOU, YOU are just information, and so is that
computer in front of you, and the chair under you. Are you also free (as in
beer)?

Information requires effort and/or investment to create, and personally I feel
the "information wants to be free" folks like to simply wax over that to
further their own interests.

~~~
ThomPete
It's not that it should be free, it's that it will eventually be free.

You seem to be looking at this from a kind of moral point of view, but
"information wan't to be free" is not meant to be a value statement. It's
meant to be an observation about information.

~~~
sliverstorm
If it's an observation, why is it pushed like an agenda and used like a
justification?

~~~
Travis
Any time any concept is reduced to a pithy sentence it will be appropriated by
people to use as an agenda.

Something about these types of clever sayings shortcuts our brains. People use
that fact to take advantage.

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rick888
Scarcity is still there..even with digital content. Can anyone create Adobe
Photoshop with a few mouse clicks (not a digital copy, but an original)? If
not, then there is a scarcity: in the talent that creates such content.

Sure, anyone with a computer can start a blog..but only the people with
quality, original, content will get continue to get the traffic.

What's changed is people's mindsets..which I predicted would happen back in
'99. Piracy advocates claim there is no direct correlation between piracy and
loss sales. This may be the case on a 1-1 case, but in the long-run, if you do
nothing about pirated content, the value in people's minds slowly starts to
approach $0. This is because all digital content is just like currency: it's
value is only what people think it's worth. If know you can easily download
something for free, why bother paying for it?

This is why I no longer write applications, only services. Any apps that I
release are directly tied to a monthly service and are useless without it.

~~~
kmgroove
Do people really think the value of something is 0$ just because they can get
it for free? That is cost. The cost of me watching the latest blockbuster on
my computer may be 0$ but I don't honestly believe it's value is 0$. You are
right in saying that value is only what people think it's worth but I don't
think people who pirate actually believe the content is worth nothing. The
real mindset people have is if cost < value then screw value all together.
This has always been the case.

Cost is becoming less of an issue online though, with simpler payments,
content priced appropriately, and an increased "lock you out" if you try to
get stuff for free.

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r00fus
This article is a bit facile and ignores data that disprove their point.

They hold Twitter as a model for the "end of scarcity" and yet Twitter has put
the kibosh on new tweet clients?

If anything, scarcity is even more abundant with all this abundance. Scarcity
of user attention/memory isn't going away. Scarcity of IP with an increasing
patent minefield; We still might be looking at coming bandwidth restrictions
as the ISPs lower their thresholds to tax the internet services and users.

This article reminds me of the original dot-com bubble and how Wired and other
tech-saavy digests were crowing about DOW hitting 40k and the abundance
economy, the long boom... that didn't end well.

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zwischenzug
The arguments about universities are based on flawed assumptions, ie that you
go there to "get" knowledge from professors. In fact, the knowledge has always
been there to get, should you wish. Universities are there to put like minds
together and allow them to develop wider skills and give them the resources to
extend our collective knowledge. We've had public libraries with easily
available educational content for over a century.

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nolite
For this to happen, we need the replicators from Star Trek. At that point, it
WILL change everything

~~~
wladimir
Scarcity will end when both these Star Trek ideas come true:

1) Every trinket can be produced en masse with a precious mingling of magic,
unicorns and nanotechnology

2) Consumerism ends. One could argue there are enough resources and means of
production on the world for everyone. It's just that the "haves" want more and
more, and then throw it away and want even more.

Otherwise -- A Star Trek replicator would just speed up the treadmill of
consumerism. You can have any toy you want instantly. In our current society,
this would probably mean that fashions change every three minutes, and the
rich part of the population will use so much energy that the have-nots will
still be deprived of even basic living conditions.

~~~
tomjen3
It would speed up the consumerism but only for a short time until people find
a new way to signal their social standing.

~~~
wladimir
You might be right. But, looking at history, I'm always more conservative
about predictions as to changes in human nature than in level of technology.

On the other hand, consumerism as we know it really only exists for about 100
years. It might be a passing fad.

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barisme
There's a lot of talk about this from time to time, but it's nothing new. For
example, the book _Free: The Future of a Radical Price_ by Chris Anderson
discussed it extensively in human-readable language. 1st edition was July
2009.

