
How to earn 'points' under Trump immigration plan? - gopi
http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/02/politics/cotton-perdue-trump-bill-point-system-merit-based/index.html
======
gberger
Some quick math for an "average" college grad:

\- [Age] 22-25: +8

\- [Education] Foreign BS: +5

\- [English] 90th percentile (108 or more on TOEFL [0]): +11

This amounts to 24 points, needing 6 more to achieve 30. A job offer of 150%
the median household income of the state is only +5 points, so the candidate
would need a 200% offer. This means, using 2015 data [1]:

\- California: $64.5k -> $129k

\- Washington: $64k -> $128k

\- New York: $61k -> $122k

\- Massachussets: $70k -> $140k

The numbers above are, obviously, higher than average, but certainly reachable
for excellent software engineers at big companies. (It is unclear to me if
other compensation components such as stocks/equity count toward the 200%.)

However, if such candidate reaches the age of 26, earns a foreign MS in a STEM
field, or obtains a perfect TOEFL score, thus earning an additional point or
two, then she would need a job offer equivalent to only 150% the median
household income.

\--

[0]: [https://magoosh.com/toefl/2015/whats-your-toefl-
percentile/](https://magoosh.com/toefl/2015/whats-your-toefl-percentile/)

[1]:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_income)

~~~
AStrangeMorrow
I am a bit curious about the 90th percentile tho.

    
    
      "Anyone with less than a 60th percentile proficiency gets no points. Between 60th and 80th percentile is worth six points, someone in the 80th to 90th percentile range earns 10 points, someone with a 90th percentile proficiency or above earns 11 points, and someone in the 100th percentile range earns 12 points"
    

I can't understand if it means, on a test with 1000 points, for the 90th
percentile:

1.) you scored at least 900 points.

Or

2.) you did better than 90% of the persons that took the test (That's what I
understand by percentile. But it doesn't make sense since mathematically you
can't have a 100th percentile. Except if you approximate 99.995 -> 100)

~~~
gberger
A 100th percentile would probably mean a perfect score on the exam.

[https://magoosh.com/toefl/2015/whats-your-toefl-
percentile/](https://magoosh.com/toefl/2015/whats-your-toefl-percentile/)

~~~
AStrangeMorrow
Thanks (: It does make sense to me with the values now

------
geff82
For all you non-Nobel-Price holders that aren't uneducated and want to live
somewhere else: Germany welcomes you. Actually, having a bachelor's degree in
the STEM field almost automatically gets you a visa for "searching work" for
6-12 months. If in that time you find a job that pays at least ca. 40.000
Euro, you get the "BlueCard" which leads to permanent residency after 2-4
years (depending on your German skills). If you are well qualified, but not in
the STEM fields, about 60.000€ yearly salary paves the way. There is no point
system, there is no maximum number of BlueCards, you don't have to be the best
of the best (just "regular" well educated people) and you get your shot. We
are just going through the process with a family member of my wife and it is
surprisingly painless compared to most other German bureaucracy. In contrast
to the USA, Germany is actively searching for more talent abroad and has
reasonable acceptance criteria (never thought I would say this about my
country...).

~~~
DarqWebster
When I was backpacking, I entered Germany without a definite exit date and
with no onward travel booked. Upon hearing this, the immigration official gave
me a hard stare, and let me sweat for what felt like ages. He then cracked a
smile and told me to visit the Foreigners Office if I wanted to stay for
longer, or look for work. While I doubt that's the normal experience,
including finding an immigration official with a sense of humour, I found
Germany to be pretty flexible in this regard.

~~~
geff82
What is your nationality?

------
saimiam
(Not an economist. Current h1b visa holder about to leave the US to grow my
company in India.)

A country whose indigenous population growth is stagnating, whose indigenous
population does currently not pick up all available jobs, whose economy is 6x
as big as Canada and Australia combined is choosing to turn away immigrants.

From a purely numerical standpoint, an 18T dollar economy built by 330M
individuals will start to become unstable if the population starts falling and
aging. This is a distinct possibility when you only invite highly educated,
skilled immigrants since education negatively correlates to family sizes.
Falling population will be another reason to push for more automation (see
Japan) leading to wage stagnation.

America, be careful what you wish for. Read this demographic report. It's eye
opening. Childbirth rates are 1.82. If you bring in Nobel prize winners,
you'll get brainy people who will not beget brainy kids.

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_Sta...](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_States)

~~~
fiblye
America isn't turning away Nobel Prize winners. This system is open to those
who are educated and/or skilled. It's difficult for those who aren't.

Many countries have similar immigration standards. It's only when America does
it that people get angry. It's quite difficult for skilled workers to get
visas to the EU. Far harder than it is for Europeans to move to America.

~~~
saimiam
Nobel prize winners on down, the more educated you are, the less likely you
are to have children. The fewer children you have, the less likely it is that
your population levels will stay stable and not decline. A declining
population will lead to stressed in the the economy because there will be
fewer buyers, fewer producers, fewer young people and so on.

I for one, am not angry that America is debating this policy. They are
entitled to it. I'm adding my voice to the debate with points which favor a
liberal, come-one-come-all immigration policy.

~~~
fiblye
The fact educated people aren't having children is a global phenomenon. The US
relying on poor, undereducated immigrants is a temporary solution for what is
becoming a bigger problem by the day as more and more countries become
developed.

We need to start wondering why educated people aren't reproducing and work to
fix that, instead of hoping there will forever be at least one impoverished
country to do the reproducing for us.

~~~
saimiam
I don't think you realize the unfeasibility of you're suggesting. You're
asking for

1\. 15-20% of the world which have higher education degrees to have enough
kids to carry the burden of the remaining 80-85%

2\. You're also asking that same 15-20% of the educated world to voluntarily
have more children with the knowledge that some of them will have to do less
than salubrious work.

Would you take on such a burden yourself?

~~~
fiblye
Developed countries as a whole have dropping birth rates. Europe, America, and
East Asia are facing an impending crisis because their birth rates are
dropping so fast.

The current solution is "don't worry just bring in poor people." The problem
is as the countries those immigrants come from develop, not only do the birth
rates of those countries drop, but those people have less reason to migrate
since their home is good enough. It's why Americans don't emigrate. It's why
Japanese emigration dropped off a cliff.

Loose immigration is a bandage and people who think otherwise don't realize
the long term unfeasibility of what they're suggesting. Maintaining local
birth rates is going to be a colossal problem 50 years from now, and
immigration to Western countries will be less of a solution as Asian/African
economies grow and become more desirable places to live.

And it seems you're trying to make it sound like I was saying that the highly
educated need to reproduce more than anyone else. That isn't at all what I'm
saying. The problem is developed countries as a whole have falling birth
rates. We need to find a solution to the whole educated population=dropping
population problem and find out how to stabilize it.

~~~
dennisgorelik
> Maintaining local birth rates is going to be a colossal problem 50 years
> from now

Evolution and natural selection would solve that problem: children of people
who have more kids - are more likely to have kids themselves.

------
dxbydt
Hey, it's a decent MVP! If you sort by points and pick the top k, that's
already better than H1B by a long shot. Getting to the threshold of 30 is hard
but doable, and using standardized tests is a big plus to level the playing
field. It's probably best to replace the "foreign degree" points with a
standardized test as well. There's too much variance in quality when it comes
to foreign degrees - depending on which univ you go to, the foreign degree may
be better than Harvard or worse than the proverbial toilet paper. With such a
wide variance, especially in vital fields like medicine, US currently relies
on standardized medical tests like Step2, Step3 to admit FMGs - this cuts down
on all the "fake doctors" since these tests are hard to game. You could do the
exact same thing for STEM - wide variety of good standardized tests to choose
from. In fact, this is a good startup opportunity to design and administer a
standard battery of tests for any foreign BS discipline - there are
"monopolies" like Prometrix who do such a shoddy job, startups can surely do
one better. Now, like any good MVP, there will be a bunch of iterations where
congress and lobbyists will tweak these points to ensure their pet cadres make
the cut. Hopefully they don't fuck it up too much. Not a fan of this
administration, but honestly, this is a competent first draft.

------
pmiller2
I'm a US citizen, born an raised in this country, and a working software
engineer in the Bay Area. I'm not sure I would score 30 points on this system.

~~~
dingo_bat
So? US citizens don't need to qualify. They were born there so they already
have citizenship.

------
vim_wannabe
You can try out the Canadian immigration points system here:
[http://www.workpermit.com/immigration/canada/canadian-
immigr...](http://www.workpermit.com/immigration/canada/canadian-immigration-
points-calculator)

~~~
k-mcgrady
Surprised how easy this was without having a job offer.

------
docdeek
This seems pretty similar to Australia’s points system.

[http://www.border.gov.au/visas/supporting/Pages/190/points-t...](http://www.border.gov.au/visas/supporting/Pages/190/points-
table.aspx)

~~~
Kurtz79
The main difference I see, is that unless you are a Nobel Prize or Olympic
Medal winner, or a 26-30 yo with a PhD perfectly fluent in English, the only
way to qualify is to have an existing job offer.

If I'm not wrong, both in Canada and Australia you can apply and look for a
job there, if you can prove you have enough funds and past work experience, in
addition to similar age/education/language fluency requirements.

~~~
dogma1138
Yes, albeit the former is much more common in most other places. This is the
same as the UK, there is virtually no way to immigrate under a work visa
unless you are sponsored by a company (you still need to meet the point
system).

It's also not that easy to get into Australia or Canada on a Visa to look for
work, even if you have sufficient points you are much more likely to be
declined unless you have a job offer / sponsorship.

~~~
sumedh
> you are much more likely to be declined unless you have a job offer /
> sponsorship.

No that does not matter, if you have 60 points (for AUS) and there are open
slots for that month you can apply for the visa. Preference is given to people
who have highest points.

~~~
dogma1138
That does matter because at least in Canada you get a lot of points for having
a job offer or if you have previously worked in Canada (the former gives more
than the latter). I'm willing to bet that it's the same case for AUS.

In most cases having a job offer is the the highest (points wise) score
awarding qualification, in the UK currently you cannot qualify for a Tier 2
visa without this (simply won't reach the required points) but in any case in
CA and AUS this puts you over anyone else without a job offer pretty much by
default.

Hence you are likely to be declined unless you are really over qualified for
every other requirement but then it shouldn't be a problem for you to get a
job upfront also.

~~~
sumedh
Exactly that is my point, not having a job offer is not a deal breaker. You
can get points for other requirements and apply.

> it shouldn't be a problem for you to get a job upfront also.

That is not true, majority of smart people do not get job in CAN or AUS if
they are not in the country. Most HR will simply throw away your resume if you
are not in the country.

------
humanrebar
> Priority is given to prime working ages.

Isn't this basically ageism, the kind that is outlawed federally?

Perhaps the concern is about the economics of importing people who are harder
to provide insurance or pensions for. But for that I could see a requirement
for a certain level of insurance. Or a disqualification from entitlement
programs for a while.

To go straight to age ranking is disappointing.

~~~
tallanvor
Hiring laws do tend to outlaw discrimination based on age except in a few
circumstances - there are laws specifying the minimum age to be able to sell
alcohol, and there's an age at which commercial pilots have to stop flying.

If congress didn't specifically include a provision to note that age
discrimination laws didn't apply to this, it would likely end up being
challenged in court, but I certainly couldn't say what the outcome would be.

Other countries do this as well - it's not right, but the people developing
this policy don't have an original bone in their body, so of course they're
going to copy what other countries already have!

~~~
humanrebar
U.S. laws only protect against age discrimination when workers are at least 40
years old.

[http://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/rights-against-age-
di...](http://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/rights-against-age-
discrimination-29577.html)

The principle should certainly apply more broadly, especially when we're
talking about legislation.

------
moomin
How many points under the new system are awarded for: 1) being tired 2) being
poor and 3) yearning to be free?

~~~
akhilcacharya
This administration is afraid of refugees too, so probably negative.

------
j7ake
The system grants 25 points to someone who has won a Nobel prize or something
"comparable".

Excuse my ignorance but what is comparable to a Noble prize ? I can think of
the fields medal, anything else?

~~~
docdeek
Wikipedia has a list of prizes known as ’Nobel in field X':
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prizes_known_as_the_No...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prizes_known_as_the_Nobel_of_a_field)

------
michaelt

      Five points are awarded if an applicant has a job offer
      that will pay at least 150% of median household income
      in the state where he or she will be employed. [...]
      13 points if it's 300% the median.
    

I wonder why the median income is tied to the state rather than the nation? It
means an oil worker paid $120,000 is worth 8 points in Texas, but only 5
points in Alaska.

~~~
dogma1138
Exactly for this reason, to allow states with lower income to be more
competitive.

100K for a Software engineer might not cut it in SV, but it will allow smaller
tech hubs in places where tech salaries are not inflated like i don't know
Kentucky for example to attract foreign talent.

------
akhilcacharya
For a group of people that keep saying they're cool with "LEGAL" immigrants,
I'm confused - what is the need for a change?

~~~
ausvisaissues
The current H1b system has a cap, with more applications than positions. This
is resolved via a "lottery". If you apply, you have a 30% chance of being
selected. Indian outsourcing firms started to game the lottery (for every
position have 3 applicants).

The new system will resolve the above problem by selecting applicants with the
most points (giving points for skills, etc...).

From person experience H1b lottery is heart-wrenching, and makes it difficult
to plan. The Australian system (which is similar to this system), is much
better.

------
eb0la
I'm wondering what will happen to the housing market in the US and Europe in
case this bill gets approved.

There is a market for middle-high income people that buys housing out of their
home country just in case the political situation becomes unfavorable.

In fact some countries give you residence if you spend a high amount of money
on real estate.

~~~
imron
It's probably good for the locals if wealthy people living outside the country
don't buy up housing stock for use just in case their country goes to pieces.

------
nopinsight
I wonder if the Job Offer criterion is applicable to a startup co-founder who
is employed as an executive in the company they co-found.

If not then this would shut out the vast majority of non-PhD startup founders
who do not already have a green card.

------
chvid
I am curious - does anyone here from the us actually think this is an
improvement compared to the existing h1b system?

~~~
ausvisaissues
I will immigrate to US in Dec. and think it is a vast improvement.

H1b lottery is a broken system which is gamed by outsourcing companies.

