
Crypto Market Has Bottomed (According to Novogratz) - sanefive
https://beincrypto.com/crypto-market-has-bottomed-according-to-novogratz/
======
MrEfficiency
From numbers alone?

I can see Bitcoin being stable as its used as a fiat hedge, but the top alt
coin Ethereum, failed to solve the Blockchain log jam. It seems overall, apps
should not run on blockchain.

These ERC20 platforms have to go to ~0 before we see the bottom.

~~~
fictionfuture
Bitcoin isn't used as a Fiat hedge. It's used for laundering, buying drugs and
other illegal activity. That's all that is keeping it alive

~~~
pariahHN
The professional criminals long ago switched to privacy focused coins like
Monero and Zcash [0], both for movements and for ransomware/cryptojacking.

Fiat is still the largest market for money laundering [1], not Bitcoin. The
amount of money described in that article is almost 50% of what Bitcoin's peak
market cap was. I also think if Bitcoin was significantly better than existing
methods for money laundering, we would see an increase in the proportion of
identifiable illegal activity instead of a declining trend which implies the
amount of money laundering (and other illegal activities) has at most remained
constant [2]. That paper also reinforces the point made in [0] with regards to
Monero/Zcash. It should also be noted that the paper found only ~25% of users
and ~44% of transactions were involved, which while being large portions are
not the majority portions. I would also hazard a guess that the majority of
large scale illegal transactions would not be conducted on exchanges in
amounts large enough to cause major slippage of price, which is a significant
limiting factor in how quickly someone can launder their money (especially
since while they don't want to significantly move the price themselves, other
entities may not have such restrictions) as well as eliminating those
transactions as major price movers.

Not saying no one uses Bitcoin for these things, just that it's highly
unlikely those things are the primary factors in the price we see.

Personally, I think the price supports for Bitcoin are speculation, (possibly
- I know one enthusiast personally who believes miners would buy up BTC
whenever the price falls below break-even for mining) miners, and probably
more than a few true believers.

I would also like to point out that Bitcoin, while the dominant factor in the
crypto market, is not the ENTIRE cryptomarket. There are several projects that
have actual unique use cases - Brave (BAT) and Enjin (ENJ) being two examples
that are not explicitly targeting fiat substit, Ethereum, or Stellar. Believe
it or not, there are actually people who would rather not have unelected third
parties able to exercise control over their wealth and daily lives. Especially
when some of those third parties engage in predatory practices and take risks
that endanger the economy as a whole [3], and when those third parties are
practically unavoidable.

[0] [https://www.deepdotweb.com/2017/09/20/dhs-says-darknet-
crimi...](https://www.deepdotweb.com/2017/09/20/dhs-says-darknet-criminals-
switching-bitcoin-monero/)

[1] [https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/14/us-examining-danske-bank-
ove...](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/14/us-examining-danske-bank-over-
possible-money-laundering-wsj-says.html)

[2] [https://www.law.ox.ac.uk/business-law-
blog/blog/2018/02/sex-...](https://www.law.ox.ac.uk/business-law-
blog/blog/2018/02/sex-drugs-and-bitcoin-how-much-illegal-activity-financed-
through)

[3] [https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bank-of-america-
charge-...](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bank-of-america-charge-
checking-account_us_5a68a762e4b0dc592a0e91d6)

------
this_user
There have been buyers holding the $6000 level over the last couple of months,
but there has not been much buying interest on the last few pops higher
either. Calling a bottom at this point is way premature. It's at most a 50:50
chance at this point. If sellers come back in aggressively and drive the price
through 6000, anyone who bought there is going to panic and that will drive
the price a lot lower.

------
xapata
Are Bitcoin a security? If so, would the SEC see this promotion as violating
any rules?

I'm assuming Novogratz holds Bitcoin.

~~~
gruez
>Are Bitcoin a security?

not according to the SEC.

>"Cryptocurrencies: These are replacements for sovereign currencies, replace
the dollar, the euro, the yen with bitcoin," Clayton said. "That type of
currency is not a security."

>A token, or a digital asset used in a fundraising process known as an initial
coin offering, or ICO, are securities by Clayton's definition.

[https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/06/sec-chairman-clayton-says-
ag...](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/06/sec-chairman-clayton-says-agency-wont-
change-definition-of-a-security.html)

------
daxorid
edit: disregard. I won't ever question the scientific validity of technical
analysis again, and will add it to my ever-growing list of unacceptable
opinions on HN.

~~~
Analemma_
Why the downvotes? The parent is correct: TA is junk science. In the case of
bitcoin it does make for great schadenfreude though:
[https://i.redd.it/8f87wq7snzl11.jpg](https://i.redd.it/8f87wq7snzl11.jpg)

~~~
herodotus
Agreed. From the article: “Markets like to retrace to the breakout”. Nonsense.

------
fictionfuture
Crypto is by-and-large only good for illegal transactions; same as BitTorrent
is only good for illegal downloads.

Anyone talking about other "applications" doesn't understand the way things
currently work.

People with this _correct_ opinion might get censored by the Inquisition but
we have only been right so far...

~~~
xtracto
> same as BitTorrent is only good for illegal downloads.

[https://www.makeuseof.com/tag/8-legal-uses-for-bittorrent-
yo...](https://www.makeuseof.com/tag/8-legal-uses-for-bittorrent-youd-be-
surprised/)

Number 3 will surprise you.

