
Epidemic Calculator - mxfh
http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html
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kangnkodos
I would also like to see the following features:

\- Enter the number of respirators in a country.

\- Enter two fatality rates, with and without respirators.

Also, I don't understand why the peak number of hospitalizations would be so
sensitive to the initial number of infections. That doesn't look right to me.

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gabrielgoh
good questions! (author here)

I've had a hard time trying to find hard figures on these numbers, and am
trying to steer as much from speculation as possible.

Your second observation is a very good one. This is true, e.g. for the default
intervention. Adding initial infections has a similar effect to waiting, and
delaying an intervention can have a tremendous effect (at least according to
the model) on the course of the epidemic

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nicpottier
Super well done. Have you shared this with epidemiologists who have validated
it? Hard to avoid some bugs no matter how careful you are!

What are the default values representing out of curiosity?

Seems the biggest bit here is the pause to intervention and how big your R0 is
after intervention. Anything over 1 for the US population and it seems to get
ugly fast.

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gabrielgoh
(author here)

default values are the best guesses for the parameters of the novel
coronavirus based on my reading of the literature

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tmoertel
Related SIR model: COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics from the
Predictive Healthcare team at Penn Medicine (press release):
[http://predictivehealthcare.pennmedicine.org/2020/03/14/acco...](http://predictivehealthcare.pennmedicine.org/2020/03/14/accouncing-
chime.html)

This one was made for hospital administrators and also estimates loads on
their rooms and ventilators.

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CSSer
This is fantastic!

It would be nice to have a select input with countries that would update the
population input based on the country selected. e.g. "United States of America
- 327,000,000". It also may be nice to have a text input along with the range
such that you can choose to either manually key in a value or use the range.

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mNovak
Very cool!

Noticed first Death and Peak also appear to be sliders, a bit unclear how
these are supposed to be used.

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XaspR8d
Not sure the UI is working the same for me -- dragging anywhere along the time
axis, including the first death and hospitalization peak waypoints, scales the
amount of time shown on the graph. It doesn't appear to affect the model.

~~~
gabrielgoh
(author here) - that is correct, those aren't sliders, just waypoints

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mattsouth
I would consider entering this to the scipy plotting comp:
[https://forms.gle/SrexmkDwiAmDc7ej7](https://forms.gle/SrexmkDwiAmDc7ej7)

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oroul
Great tool, what did you build this with?

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pxtail
Page source says - svelte

