
Say It Is So: Baseball’s Disgrace - samclemens
https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2020/02/20/say-it-is-so-baseballs-disgrace/
======
gfs
One of the wildest statistics I have seen from all of the fallout of this
scandal is the fact that Clayton Kershaw had thrown 51 breaking balls and got
zero missed swings. [0]

I can't believe this didn't stand out sooner to analysts or if it just got
glossed over. I still think hitting a round ball with a round bat is one of
the hardest if not the hardest things to do in sports. And to not get a single
swing and miss on a pitch that is around 70 - 80 MPH and breaking around half
a foot is insane.

[0]:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/f7w3yq/kershaw_th...](https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/f7w3yq/kershaw_threw_51_breaking_ballssliders_in_game_5/)

~~~
truantbuick
The Astros hid behind the guise that they were outstanding at picking up
"tipping" from opposing pitchers. i.e. The smallest difference in a pitcher's
delivery, imperceptible to you or I, would indicate what kind of pitch was
coming. Writers often talked about how Alex Cora or Carlos Beltran or Jose
Altuve were just remarkable "students of the game" and would figure it out and
tell the rest of the lineup who would pounce upon it.

It's kinda funny to look back on, because I remember lots of people producing
videos where they would supposedly point out what the Astros were picking up
on, and it never seemed very clear to me no matter how much they slowed down
the footage.

Another thing to note is that there's always fun baseball stats coming out.
Kershaw getting no misses on his breaking balls would just be one of several
interesting tidbits talked about the next day. It wouldn't really cause
suspicion, as most people would just assume it indicates Kershaw was
ineffective.

For example, in the the 2017 ALCS, Astros pitcher Lance McCullers finished off
the feared Yankees lineup by throwing 24 straight curveballs. This is no
suggestion that Lance McCullers cheated; it's just an example that there's
always odd stuff to reflect upon the next day.

~~~
agarden
Trevor Bauer has been loudly stating that the Astros' pitchers are using
foreign substances on the ball to get the tremendous spin rates that they do.
McCullers throwing 24 straight curveballs might in fact be suspicious.

~~~
jahlove
Pitchers using stickum is pretty much an open secret that the entire league
participates in [0].

[0] [https://www.newyorker.com/sports/sporting-scene/baseballs-
st...](https://www.newyorker.com/sports/sporting-scene/baseballs-sticky-
secrets)

~~~
sk5t
I feel like the game tolerates some bending of the rules so long as the
techniques were available and used in the 1920s--tar or earwax or whatever on
the ball, a certain amount of incorrect calls from the umpire, and so on.

------
anm89
> Regardless of the verdict of juries, no player that throws a ball game, no
> player that undertakes or promises to throw a ball game, no player that sits
> in a conference with a bunch of crooked players and gamblers where the ways
> and means of throwing a game are planned and discussed, and does not
> promptly tell his club about it, will ever play professional baseball.

I love this language, and it sticks out because it's in such stark contrast to
anything a large organization would say today. It doesn't sugarcoat anything,
it takes full responsibility, no double speak, no marketing euphemisms. And it
says what they are going to do about it.

I think people somehow feel they are exposing themselves these days with that
level of transparency, and maybe they are right. But I know that if I heard
people speaking like this I would be drastically more likely to trust them and
their brands. I would like to think it's still possible to communicate this
way in the modern world.

------
WhompingWindows
I think baseball is an extremely uninteresting sport. The pace of the game is
very slow, as every batter is swinging for the fences, stepping out of the
box, and there is usually no action for over 3 hours of "playing" time. What
is the game today? On a time-basis, baseball is 99% players standing around
waiting for something to occur.

Gone are the days of defensive brilliance and working players around the bases
methodically with short hits, speed, and finesse. I won't miss baseball in the
Olympics and I think it's rightfully falling to other much more interesting
and engaging sports. The idea it is our "national pastime" is just laughable
to me.

What's more, where I live, we had the Pawtucket PawSox try to extort
Providence and RI for massive tax breaks and a premium parcel of downtown
Providence land. Thankfully, Rhode Islanders called their bluff and let them
move to Worcester. I'm glad my state acknowledged baseball is an incredibly
slow-paced and yawn-inducing sport and we didn't want to pay through the nose
for a stadium that hardly any of us would enjoy having.

~~~
maverick2007
It's funny you say that it's a negative because I think that's a positive.
It's one of my favorite things to do to load up my team's games (Tampa Bay
Rays fan here!) on MLB.tv and work on my side project while I watch the games.
When the game is going slowly I'll pay more attention on my projects and vice
versa.

But the actual game play is my least favorite part about baseball. I
absolutely love the theory and statistics that goes into the front office
decisions. It's this interesting mix of economics and game theory and
negotiation theory. My favorite team is notoriously cash strapped (read:
cheap) and I think it's fascinating watching the team wheel and deal to try to
compete with teams that literally spend 2x-3x as much as they do

~~~
yoshamano
I want to second this. Baseball is best watched with friends or family as
whatever you consider a step above "background noise." It can fill in lulls in
the gathering, and when something exciting does happen it's easy to direct
everyone's attention back to the game.

Growing up with baseball also plays a large part in deciding if you'll have
any interest in it as an adult.

------
jedberg
I was chatting with some friends about the Astros the other day, and they
pointed out something interesting.

This has caused a renewed interest in baseball. It will probably increase
attendance anywhere they Astros play, because people will want to come out and
root for their local team to "beat the cheaters".

It'll be interesting to see how the attendance numbers this season play out.

~~~
soapboxrocket
The old no press is bad press theory in action. It will be interesting to see
what actually happens when the season starts and moves into the all-star
break.

------
slg
>But Manfred also did something that may simply have been stupid, may have
been craven, and may have been corrupt: extending blanket immunity to the
players before launching a proper investigation

Players would refuse to testify without immunity and without player testimony
it would be incredibly difficult to find the details of the cheating scheme.
It also isn't even clear if MLB has the legal authority to punish players for
this type of rule violation. The player's union has stated that MLB does not
have that authority and MLB did not wish to fight them on it with a potential
labor dispute already pending over league finances when the current collective
bargaining agreement expires soon.

>Until and unless Commissioner Manfred lifts his ludicrous immunity offer and
deals severely with the incriminated participating players as well as their
management by banishing them all from the game, he will have thrown baseball
back to where it was in 1919.

I personally think offering immunity to get players to testify and then
reversing course and using that testimony to punish those players would do
much more harm to baseball than this scandal.

~~~
take_a_breath
==I personally think offering immunity to get players to testify and then
reversing course and using that testimony to punish those players would do
much more harm to baseball than this scandal.==

This could very well be true. As is, the MLB has created a precedent for
cheating without ever having to face penalties.

~~~
slg
I am on board if they create a new rule that applies punishments from this
point forward. There should not be an ex post facto rule that is used to
justify punishments that were eliminated as a possibility through both
collective bargaining and the immunity deals.

------
throwaway5752
Cheating to win is a universe apart from cheating to lose (or putting yourself
in a position where you could be pressured to do so, like Pete Rose) when it
comes to the integrity of the game. I completely support the punishments
MLB/Manfred handed out and would support more. But throwing games for money
(Black Sox scandal, alluded to in the article's title attributed to a child
saying "Say it ain't" so to Shoeless Joe Jackson) is different than sign
stealing. I suspect the managers, coaches, and front office staff will have
informal punishments of being blacklisted out of the sport for life.

~~~
monadic2
How does it ruin the game less than people throwing the it? It’s not an
earnest competition, which is the point of watching. Allowing steroids
(something I am not in favor of) would ruin the game far less than breaking
the premise of the game between the pitcher and batter.

Frankly I think it should be a crime to cheat—make the people have something
to lose that hurts more than money.

~~~
lozaning
I have zero interest in having any of my tax dollars pay to lock someone up
because they cheated at baseball.

~~~
monadic2
Not have I, but prisons are a separate issue. I don’t think fines (or asking
individuals to step down) are proportional to the level that this will
ultimately destroy the sport at the national level. We already throw people in
jail for public urination; why not for urinating on our national pastime?

~~~
lozaning
I dont, and I cant stress this enough, give a single fuck about baseball or it
status as our national pastime.

Now look, I'm not anti baseball, I'm not here to yuck your yum or say
something shouldn't exist because I don't value or appreciate it. But
professional baseball not existing anymore sure seems like a problem solely
for the people who care about baseball to figure out, not the federal
government.

~~~
monadic2
> But professional baseball not existing anymore sure seems like a problem
> solely for the people who care about baseball to figure out, not the federal
> government.

And yet, we still arrest for public urination.

------
Spooky23
I'm sure that we'll find all sorts of schemes like this in other sports as
well in the US. Pretty obvious and easy reason why: legal sports betting is a
$155B market growing at 8% annually in the US. I'd be curious to see who was
making money off of the Astros.

There's way too much money chasing outcomes. Plenty of these players are
vulnerable to different influence strategies.

~~~
karatestomp
I had a little insight into the esports gambling world at one point and it
answered some questions for me about why there's so much money being thrown
around there. I'm guessing (no evidence, but a strong hunch) there are a ton
of shenanigans going on, as that whole side of things has a very wild-west
feel yet there's a _lot_ of money moving around.

Some folks at the same place helped me figure out what Venmo's social
transaction messages are useful for: illegal gambling pools. I'd been
wondering why those features exist or who'd want them, then saw it used for
that purpose. Suddenly made sense.

~~~
lozaning
Can you explain more by what you mean about the Venmo stuff, its sounds super
interesting.

Are you saying that someone out there is doing crowd sourced intelligence for
increased win modeling, based on the messages people put in their venmo
transactions?

Or that the default public nature of the ledger is such that people can see
that the bookie (I think im using that right) is getting money from other
counter parties and proves their ability to pay out in the future?

~~~
karatestomp
The latter. I saw an email thread go around to organize a betting pool, using
venmo (with the obvious warning not to say it was for gambling in the memo)
and had a huge "ah ha" moment for why that feature exists. It's perfect for
ensuring collections & payouts happen correctly and no money goes missing, or
"missing".

It'd be hard to crowd source for better odds on there, I'd think, since people
disguise those kinds of transactions. Same as with drug purchases, which are
also prohibited on Venmo so you can't mention them but are, obviously, some
part of the activity on there, though unlike with betting pools Venmo's
(previously, to me) weird social ledger thing isn't a killer feature for that.

Probably they could spot betting pools and put some rules in place to make it
annoying enough to use the platform for that purpose that people would stop,
though I don't know why they would. I'd guess illegal activity's far from a
majority of their revenue, but I bet it's still significant. Probably certain
transaction patterns get _really_ common on either side of major sports
events.

------
ohithereyou
Wait, does anybody actually believe any major sport doesn't look the other way
when the right team cheats assuming it gets more butts in seats? Major sports
aren't about the purity of the game. They're about money - pure and simple.

If MLB could replace all of the players with robots that played a game
simulated on a computer, designed to play out a storyline as a drama instead
of a legitimate competition, and make more money doing it then they would in a
heartbeat and not lose a wink of sleep over it.

------
binarymax
Here's a fun (semi) technical video on using machine learning for sign
stealing:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmlRbfSavbI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmlRbfSavbI)

I wonder if the signs employed by Major League teams are as simple as the ones
dissected above?

------
apl002
"A perfect sports scandal for the age of Trump."

Tying anything and everything to Trump is so tiresome and has nothing to do
with the article, the Astros scandal, or the actions of commissioner
landis/manfred.

~~~
techopoly
Not sure why you're being downvoted -- I think your comment is a perfectly
reasonable statement to make.

~~~
apl002
partisanship has got to be at all time highs. My comment is likely seen as me
defending trump and therefore anyone who dislikes trump just automatically
downvotes it regardless of context. 2020 is awesome

------
goatherders
I am an Astros fan and baseball fanatic, so I have a lot to say here as do
most people that fit in one or both of the above designations. I'm getting to
the thread a little late so it's possible (probable) that no one will read
this but I feel a bit better letting it out.

1\. We cheated and got caught. On one hand the penalties are pretty severe.
Draft picks mean that in 5-8 years we may be awful again. AJ Hinch was a DAMN
good manager and when the Mets hire him in a year I'm going to be sad. Jose
Altuve - for whom there is no evidence that he cheated - is one of the best
hitters of the last decade and may never make the HOF b/c of this. The
penalties individually and collectively are not small. On the other hand, I
agree that more punishment could have been handed out.

2\. MLB has done a TERRIBLE job explaining that not only was immunity
essential for getting the truth but also that punishing players would wind up
in a YEARS-long dispute with the Player's Association. Fans and the sport
alike get all pissy that there is no official record of steriod users...well
immunity wasn't offered. Can't have it both ways.

3\. MLB is also shooting itself in the foot not releasing the Red Sox report
during the height of the Astros story. It is probable that the 2018 champs
will ALSO be exposed as cheaters. ANd they had the MVP that year as well. I
will smirk at least a little when the Astros hatred starts to abait in June
just in time for the Red Sox to re-kindle the story.

3\. I have friends that work in Baseball. Of course it's speculation but 3 of
them independent of each other have told me that the 3 teams that cheat the
most are Houston, LAD, and Arizona. ANd all 3 conversations ended with the
punchline of how little the Diamondbacks have to show for their cheating.

4\. The sanctimony in baseball is comical AND sad. No sport likes to eat it's
young like baseball. The same reporters that used the 1998 home run race to
their benefit now vote against steroid players getting into the HOF. Anything
to protect your 2 inches in the Sunday edition, fellas. LOL

5\. Being mindful of #1, anyone that thinks the cheating is limited to
Houston, Boston or just a couple teams is sniffing glue. ALL teams and players
creep as close to the line as possible. Are there players that refuse to
participate? ABSOLUTELY. Are there teams that play every game on the up and
up? No way. There is simply too much at stake and the transfer of players and
execs and coaches between teams means that the knowledge of skirting the rules
isn't limited to Houston.

5b. You want examples? The team that closes the dome to induce more short fly
balls. The team that lets the grass grow longer to make grounders in the
infield slow down. The team that overwaters the dirt in the base-paths to slow
runners. on and on and on.

6\. MLB allowing ANY current-game film in the clubhouse is so stupid as to
defy words. So a batter can walk into the clubhouse and review the at-bat he
completed 30 seconds ago to look at pitch sequences and locations.....that's
okay? Absolutely STUPID. Suggested result: eliminate replay on anything but
scoring plays. Remove replay in the clubhouse and prohibit players from
leaving the dugout except for bio-breaks with an MLB escort.

7\. Finally, if anything ever drives me away from baseball it will be this:
the "inside" baseball talk. Reporters and players and former players that
patronize fans with things like "you wouldn't understand..." or "there is a
game within the game..." A sport that allows/supports putting a fastball in a
guy's ribs if he preens after a home run. A sport that says SOME version of
sign stealing is fine BUT other versions are not.

~~~
remarkEon
Re #3, care to point to any evidence of LAD and Arizona shenanigans? I follow
baseball pretty closely and I guess I haven't seen any. We can throw
accusations all we want (#5, and #5b seems suspicious because doing something
like closing the dome would have the same effect on the balls the home team
hits too). Agreed on #6.

~~~
SamReidHughes
Different pitchers have different hit patterns — there are ground ball
pitchers, etc. Excessively watering the dirt and closing the dome aren’t
really cheating, just standard gamesmanship.

~~~
goatherders
This is what drives me nuts about baseball. Yes, you are right. That is
standard gamesmanship.

AND THAT IN ITSELF IS LUDICROUS.

What other sport allows the field of play to be modified to fit one style of
play or player? Can you imagine a basketball team raising the rims 2 feet so
that Giannis couldn't dunk AND IT BEING ALLOWED? Or a football team growing
the grass to 8" so that a team with fast wide receivers would be slowed?

To me, baseball's rich (sarcasm) history of allowing random-sized fields and
wall heights and open or closed roofs and watered or unwatered infields means
that the more Circus-like elements of the sport are allowable. I too like some
of this "gamesmanship". But I have a hard time understanding the difference of
the allowed gamesmanship (stealing signs from second) and the disallowed and
disgraceful gamesmanship (using ALLOWED in-clubhouse video to determine pitch
sequences).

------
watertom
Frankly basketball, baseball, and to some degree football are all taking on a
WWF feel.

I’ve basically stopped watching all pro sports, I was an athlete in school,
and for a long time and avid sports fan, but no more.

The rule changes in the NBA, caused me to drop the sport, the PED scandal of
MLB caused me to drop MLB, and the rule changes to football are making it feel
a whole lot like The NBA.

I didn’t watch a single NFL game last season, and I only DVRed the NFL playoff
games, and only skipped through one game, deleting the rest.

Even college sports have lost their appeal. Only one sport left and that’s
boxing, but the pay per view rates have caused me to stop buying those events.

I think pro spots have peaked and will continue to decline.

------
unethical_ban
I'll throw in some alternate viewpoints from friends who support the Astros.
The narrative I have heard is that this really is something that many teams
do, to varying extents. That the Yankees have done it for years, and in fact
that the Astros just expanded on what the Yankees were doing while Beltran was
there.

That sign-stealing is part of the game, it isn't against the rules, and that
most players who are complaining are in a gray area of hypocrisy, because
they're mad they weren't in the loop on the tactic. My friends further believe
that the Astros are being used as the patsies for all of MLB. The Astros will
take the public blame for something most teams do or wish they thought of, and
now all MLB will get on the same page about allowing or banning stealing like
this.

These opinions are not my own, but I haven't seen the opinions or viewpoints
of Astros defenders online - so here it is.

~~~
irishcoffee
Sign stealing is part of the game... if you’re a runner on 2nd. They were
using cameras in center field, no?

~~~
unethical_ban
The assertion by those I spoke with is that teams have been low-key sign
stealing from cameras and other mechanisms for decades.

