
Plenty of Passengers, but Where Are the Pilots? - danso
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/17/opinion/sunday/plenty-of-passengers-but-where-are-the-pilots.html
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mathattack
Seems like an economics problem. The airplanes are full. The airlines are
making lots of money. There aren't enough pilots. Hmm.... Perhaps pay them
more?

~~~
taneq
That's only half of the equation. They can't get more pilots by paying more,
because the requirements to _become_ a pilot are so arduous. According to the
article, trainee pilots have to pony up ~$150k in training costs, as well as
spend many years working in scarce non-commercial-carrier jobs. So in part,
the solution would be to create more non-commercial-carrier pilot jobs, and/or
for airlines to start sponsoring trainee pilots to make it more attractive (or
even possible) for them to get qualified.

~~~
x0x0
The article mentions JetBlue is running a so-called ab initio program where
they train pilots directly for the low sum of $125k! That's right -- pay $125k
to (maybe) get a good job in 15 years.

As long as they charge 6 figures, there isn't a real pilot shortage. This is
just the industry whining in the hope of finding a sucker (US taxpayers) to
subsidize a training program for them.

~~~
atemerev
There's only one other possible source: the ticket price.

~~~
mseebach
Cancelling flights is pretty expensive. I would not be terribly surprised if
the total cost in foregone revenue (both from the flights not flown and from
the opportunity cost of the decreased inventory on the flight passengers are
rebooked onto), aircraft parking fees, couriering lost luggage and in
compensation/accommodation provided (whatever little that is) is in the
thousands of dollars per flight.

In other words, all other things being equal, you can probably train a decent
number of pilots from savings from not cancelling flights, without plucking
tax payers or raising ticket prices.

~~~
atemerev
Probably. And I am sure that airlines CFOs are keeping that in mind.

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wannabepilot
As someone would have loved to become a pilot, but went into another industry
because I wanted to be able to feed my family, the airlines have no one to
blame but themselves. The pay for regional pilots is insultingly low.

I don't think pilots qualify for H-1B but perhaps the US gov't could come up
with a scheme to allow experienced foreign pilots to come to the US and get
trained and certified at the airlines' expense.

~~~
hendler
Piloting is bellweather profession for many other jobs vulnerable to
automation. Is the debate about visa programs or universal basic income when
all these jobs are gone?

A combination of pay, educational requirements, and job security holds people
back from many professions that they are motivated to perform. But I don't
know that there is a solution that government can provide alone. We all need
to participate in creating work, security, education.

There are still great dreams to dream and jobs to have. I hope your current
industry is also fulfilling.

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klagermkii
This is another industry with a brutal gender gap (95%-5%) that I don't see
referenced in the article as being an untapped source for talent.

[http://www.womenofaviationweek.org/five-decades-of-women-
pil...](http://www.womenofaviationweek.org/five-decades-of-women-pilots-in-
the-united-states-how-did-we-do/)

Is it an industry that can get away with relatively low pay and bad hours,
because it offsets those by preying on the stereotypical fantasies of young
boys "I want to be a pilot when I grow up", thus making it difficult to
attract "normal" career minded individuals?

~~~
belorn
Its a common trend when I see an article about a profession that is having
trouble to find enough people to recruit. Nurse, midwifes, carpenters,
preschool teachers, dentists, plumbers, and so many more professions only
recruit from one half of the population, and has thus problems when demand
fluctuate.

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noja
Didn't the nytimes run an article about pilots having to work in starbucks to
supplement their starting income?

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meric
1\. The lack of pilot problem affects only regional carriers but not national
airlines level yet.

2\. Regional carriers can't afford to increase pilot salaries because national
airlines are stingy.

This problem will begin to resolve, when the lack of pilot issue works up into
the national airlines level. Eventually national airlines will be out of
pilots, and they will be forced to either raise pilot salaries or institute
training programs, or provide more favourable deals to regional airlines.

The problem initially started by passing of the bill in 2009 increasing the
number of hours First Officers require by 5 times.

Since it takes a decade or more to train a pilot to that level, it may take a
decade or more for the issue to percolate into the national airlines level.

By 2019, national airlines will be feeling the pinch in pilots and be forced
to act. As they ramp up salaries, or provide more favourable deals to regional
carriers, or implement trainee programs that train new recruits from from the
ground up, or fully subsidising they training, the number of pilots entering
flight schools will increase, or automating pilots away entirely.

By 2029, due to the previous ten years of work national airlines had done to
attract pilots, or reduce dependency on them using automation, the issue of a
lack of pilots will be resolved.

~~~
guard-of-terra
It's kind of scary that fixing pilot problem is going to take longer than it
took aviation to go from first passenger jet to first 747!

Comet entered service in 52 and Jumbo Jet flew commercially in 1970. Compare
this with 2009-2029 range you proposed.

The pace of change in "modern" world is depressing and that we are content
with it is depressing even more. How about next year?

Also note how fast you can break something. Pass an act in a month, fix its
fallout in 20 years.

~~~
meric
You could move to Beijing, they're planning to open 18 new subway lines
between now and end of 2020[1].

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beijing_Subway#Future_lines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beijing_Subway#Future_lines)

~~~
guard-of-terra
They're actually awesome, it takes them to build four lines as a new system
the same time as it takes to build four-stations existing system expansion in
cities outside China.

Moscow metro expansion plan is comparably bold but I doubt they'll deliver.

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Hyperized
Wanted to become a pilot, so I did the maths. Didn't add up so I got a job in
IT, now it does :).

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nvader
The article says most flying is automated these days. I can see the need for a
human in the loop for special conditions. However, humans do make errors, and
sometimes act maliciously.

How far are we, do you think, from self-flying planes?

~~~
throwaway_exer
Despite the silly comments in this thread, we're so far away from drone
airliners that the question is in the realm of science fiction because of
human judgment:

\- airports and terminal areas are very busy

\- en route diversions can happen anytime due to weather observed in flight

\- airports like SFO can be fogged in most any day.

Military drones aren't being landed in busy urban areas.

~~~
bayesian_horse
None of these points are big obstacles. Airports may be "busy", but the system
is already set up such that pilots can perform a whole flight under next-to-
zero visibility. It's mainly an issue of airspace control.

En route diversions are easy to handle by a rudimentary flight crew and
communication equipment. The computer just needs to know the new destination
and off it goes. It could even find one on its own, if all the crew is knocked
out and all communications have failed.

That being said, people won't trust an AI enough to make this a reality soon.
Even though a system more secure than an average pilot is certainly
conceivable.

