
China Says ‘Stay Tuned’ for Retaliation over U.S. Tech Blacklist - lawrenceyan
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-08/china-says-stay-tuned-for-retaliation-over-u-s-tech-blacklist
======
dang
On HN, when there's a major story unfolding over time, we apply the
"significant new information" test:
[https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...](https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&query=%22significant%20new%20information%22&sort=byDate&type=comment)

The idea is to have a new thread for each development that adds significant
new information, and to downweight follow-ups and copycat stories that don't.
In this way we prevent the front page from being flooded with repetitive
stories and discussions (often low-quality ragey discussions, the internet
being what it is), while making space for substantive new content when it
arises. We came up with this after the Snowden deluge of 2013, when HN's front
page was inundated with a lot of articles that didn't make this distinction,
and many users—even ones who found the underlying story
interesting—complained.

If we apply this test here, it's clear that "China says ‘stay tuned’" does not
count as significant new information. On HN there's no harm in waiting until
the next important thing happens, and in the meantime we can turn our
attention to other interesting things.

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pulse7
Since everybody should be free to choose what to think and what to believe -
why the European Union is watching and not doing the same as US? They should
also to place top Chinese companies "on a blacklist over alleged human rights
violations against Muslim minorities"...

~~~
nwellnhof
No Western government really cares about human rights unless it's opportune.
Why doesn't anyone put Saudi Arabia on a blacklist for human rights
violations?

~~~
aianus
> Why doesn't anyone put Saudi Arabia on a blacklist for human rights
> violations

Canada has basically cut diplomatic ties with KSA (more like they cut ties
with us after we criticized their human rights record). Good riddance and I
was proud to see it.

~~~
bilbo0s
But despite pretty good domestic production of your own, you guys still use
the oil though. That's kind of the point.

Not only do you still use the Kingdom's oil, but even Kazakhstan, and
Algeria's as well.

~~~
aianus
I see it the other way; it's telling that KSA didn't cut the oil off along
with their other threats and actions because they realized it would only hurt
them more than us. Just a pointless temper tantrum while they remain utterly
dependent on foreign exports of their oil.

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sunstone
There's little doubt that the future paths of the democracies and China will
resemble the cold war of the 60's and 70's. Can't we just spare the drama, cut
to the chase, swap corporate prisoners and get on with stockpiling weapons
already?

~~~
toasterlovin
There's a pretty significant difference: China has way more untapped human
capital than the Soviet Union. There's a good chance they end up with a level
of economic development closer to South Korea or Japan than Eastern Europe. If
that's the case, then it's like the Cold War, except it doesn't end in the
economic collapse of the other side.

~~~
hajile
Due to the one-child policy, china is headed for extreme economic issues --
even without interference. Those issues are already starting to become
apparent and will skyrocket over the next decade or two. Extra economic
pressure on top could definitely have a significant effect on the country.

~~~
pinkfoot
Yet Nigeria, Yemen, Pakistan, etc. with practically uncontrolled population
growth are on the cusp of a golden age?

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mc32
It’s surprising to think that in retrospect, relatively speaking, Hu, Jintao,
was actually a good guy.

He’s of course one of a string of CCP strongmen, but nowhere near the likes of
mr Xi. It’s too bad some within the party saw him as too soft maybe leaning
western, so Xi manoeuvered and became the next mr Mao... to the detriment of
China _and_ the world.

~~~
jaggirs
I dont think who the person in charge is matters that much. The conglomerate
of powerfull people in china have allowed Xi to rise into power because he
would serve their interests. Same when Hu was in power. In a mature political
system, transition of interests and percieved optimal policy changes who the
man in power is, not the other way around.

~~~
rpmisms
Your comment, but applied to all countries.

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yalogin
This has already caused irreparable damage to China. Companies are not going
to depend on their services in the future and definitely be moving out. The
impact will manifest over time.

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busterarm
I really don't get Bloomberg. They post articles with wild conspiratorial
nonsense as fact, absolutely destroying their credibility, but then they make
sure to tow the line with China on human rights violations being "alleged".

Shows you who their masters are.

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dev_dull
They’ve blacklisted our companies from working with them without a “Chinese
partner” — of course, that just ends up being a vessel company for state-
sponsored Chinese espionage.

If you want an idea of what China has been up to, check out this recent
interview with a former CIA official [1 it’s right-wing OAN, get over it].

They “somehow” managed to learn the identities of _every single_ CIA informant
in their country their country. Some of them murdered as they left their
homes.

1\.
[https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mqX_EESAdRY](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mqX_EESAdRY)

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yalogin
What would happen if the US and EU are not made available to Chinese consumers
at all? That is not an option now as most of the manufacturing happens there
but if we assume this can be done and Chinese consumers don’t get anything
made or owned by US and EU companies how big of a problem will it be for the
Chinese government?

~~~
skybrian
It's a messy breakup and both sides will be worse off. But these are both huge
and advanced economies. Substitutes will be found or built.

------
rfc
My only hope is that we can extend this to biotech as well. The amount of IP
theft and insane Chinese government subsidization of biotech that USA-based
companies live off of is disturbing. They are so addicted to BS money and are
so entrenched that these companies fear they can't back out. I say - Rip The
Bandaid Off.

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djohnston
Which American tech has the most to lose? FB and Goog completely unaffected.
Microsoft could take a hit but would be fine since they're ubiquitous. Apple?
What's their hardware situation look like?

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squarefoot
Should the trade war escalate a bit too much, it will impact the cost of
energy too. China has a rare earth minerals (think neodymium magnets used in
motors and generators) yearly extraction rate 8 times higher than the US, and
their extimated reserves are about 30 times bigger. They're #1 in the world in
one of the most important elements industry, period. If this idiocy continues,
it won't need to get to the military level to produce some serious damage.

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aty268
Can somebody help me out here. I think the biggest issue on my mind for the
coming election is the U.S. and China relations.

I don't see any candidate who seems to have an interest whatsoever in being
tough on China, and more terrifying, could lead us during a time that
something bad did happen.

Trump isn't the greatest, but he is the ONLY one I can see who I would trust
would at least have the gall to stand up to China.

~~~
liuliu
Then it is working. Fear is the best thing to force people to adopt
authoritarianism. This comment just illustrated fearmongering is working
beautifully in the United States as well.

~~~
aty268
Perhaps this is true, but I would be terribly naive not to be afraid of what
China is capable of doing, and the future of humanity if we don't take this
issue seriously.

~~~
shkkmo
Given Trump's antics with Syria and his unwillingness to listen to military
experts, I absolutely do not want Trump involved in the decision making
process if the situation deteriorates with China. Regardless of what you think
of his policies on immigration, trade and regulation, there is no way to see
Trump as a competent commander in chief.

~~~
rpmisms
However, Trump is a good negotiator, as we've seen with North Korea. Yes, he
strongarms, but that's the US for you. I'm skeptical--but not in denial--about
the possibility that this is phase 1 of the subdue-China plan.

~~~
shkkmo
what was accomplished with N Korea?

~~~
rpmisms
He walked across the fucking border.

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identity_zero
Lol. Bring it on.

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redisman
Oh no! They might block US tech companies from doing business in China unless
they comply with draconian authoritarianism. Everyone in tech knows China has
been completely outrageous in its treatment of US companies for decades.

~~~
nicoburns
If they removed US access to Chinese supply chains, it'd be a pretty big deal
for the US... that might even start a war.

~~~
jerf
You have to analyze the costs & benefits to all relevant parties when thinking
about that sort of thing. I think you've only analyzed the costs to one party
in that analysis.

"Cutting off all US supply chain in China" is on the table, but definitely way
down the list of what China wants to do. The US decoupling from their economy
isn't their big winning play, it's a nightmare scenario for them. If it was a
big winning play right now for them, they'd already have done it.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Bringing (automated) manufacturing back to the US and ensuring the security of
our supply chains while also doing economic harm to an authoritarian
government while they're in a precariously unstable economic situation? As a
US citizen, I'm fully onboard. Call China's bluff. Monetary policy (cheap
money) is in a phenomenal place to support the necessary infrastructure
investments (roads, rail, energy, etc), and that spending will keep the US
economy humming while further decoupling us from China's.

What good are values as a nation if we're willing to trade them for profits
and cheap goods from China?

~~~
Despegar
Are you kidding? US foreign policy regularly ignores "values" for other
interests.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Communiqu%C3%A9s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Communiqu%C3%A9s)

~~~
jerf
That's begging the question in an important sense though; what is under
discussion is precisely a history of ignoring "values" for our other interests
in China, the result that has created which did not match the stated goal of
the previous policy, and the question of whether we should continue with that
previous policy.

It would be a particularly perverse deployment of "whataboutism" if one argues
that honoring our values over profit is not something we should do now,
because whatabout the fact up until quite recently we weren't?

~~~
ianleeclark
> It would be a particularly perverse deployment of "whataboutism" if one
> argues that honoring our values over profit is not something we should do
> now, because whatabout the fact up until quite recently we weren't?

You don't even have to go until "quite recently," we can demonstratively
saying we're--today, tomorrow, and for the foreseeable future-- aiding the
yemeni genocide. "Whataboutism," is a complete spook that, oddly enough,
details conversations because OP is likely not pointing out that we should
ignore our values, but rather that the USA has no values to honor in the first
place.

------
whamlastxmas
Does YC have any links to Chinese businesses they might want to disclose?

~~~
dang
All I know comes from public reports, which is that YC was planning something
in China at some point. I don't know what its status is.

Your question may to be coming from a mistaken place, though. Nothing like
that would affect Hacker News moderation. HN has had editorial independence
from YC for years [1, 2] and we don't think about such things while
moderating. What we think about is how to keep the site in line with its
values [3], and how the community feels about things.

1 [https://venturebeat.com/2015/09/29/y-combinator-spins-out-
ha...](https://venturebeat.com/2015/09/29/y-combinator-spins-out-hacker-news-
to-give-it-full-editorial-independence/)

2\. [https://blog.ycombinator.com/two-hn-
announcements/](https://blog.ycombinator.com/two-hn-announcements/)

3\.
[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html)

~~~
lawrenceyan
Hey dang, hopefully you're already aware of this, but if not, I just wanted to
let you know that a common tactic I've noticed that's increasingly being
utilized is to mass flag a submission in order to quickly have it removed from
the top of the page.

Since the algorithm automatically lowers the priority of highly flagged posts,
and it requires some level of manual intervention in order to unflag a flagged
post, it works quite well for selectively bringing down unwanted submissions.

One way of resolving this I think would be to additionally add a weight for
the existing prioritization weight associated with the number of flags on a
submission such that a post with an increasing amount of upvotes requires a
proportionally higher number of flags to be deprioritized.

[e.g. maybe something like (number_of_flags / number_of_upvotes) *
(time_decay_between_avg_interval_of_flags_per_unit_time_versus_upvotes_respectively)]

~~~
dang
It's best if you email hn@ycombinator.com with specific links if you think
submissions are being flagged inappropriately.

Since this subthread has turned into "ask the mods arbitrary things", I
detached it from
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21208169](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21208169)
and marked it off-topic.

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ausjke
Forgot about talking with North Korea, as a new "West Korea" is forming under
the leadership of Xi, who is painting himself as Mao.

