
Misery of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan would be global - nnx
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/10/misery-of-a-nuclear-war-between-india-and-pakistan-would-be-global/
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nabla9
The main uncertainty and weak point in these studies are the incorrect
assumptions about combustible fuel loads in cities. Nuclear winter (or
cooling) requires strong firestorm that lifts soot and black carbon (BC) high
in the stratosphere.

Authors make the same increasingly erroneous assumption as previous studies.
This starting assumption is the weakest point of the study.

>1\. We first assume that the area subject to fire ignition for a 15-kt
nuclear explosion is the same as that observed in Hiroshima (13 km2). For
different yields, we take the area subject to fire as proportional to the
yield (15).

Hirosima had fire storm because it was densely build old Japanese city made of
mostly wood and paper buildings. It was was full of breakfast burners that
where thrown around in the blast (time was 08:15). There had been no rain for
almost 30 days. Nagasaki was similarly build city but the fires were five
times less intense.

I don't understand why nuclear winter studies keep using Hiroshima as their
city model. They don't take into account changes in urban construction or
overall decrease in fuel load. The increased use of electricity, different
building materials and underground fuel tanks reduce the combustible fuel load
several orders of magnitude.

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Someone
Anybody have a link to the publication? I can’t find it on
[https://experts.colorado.edu/display/fisid_110521](https://experts.colorado.edu/display/fisid_110521)
(it mentions “Nuclear Winter Responses to Nuclear War Between the United
States and Russia in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 4
and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E”, but that isn’t about
India and Pakistan)

I’m asking because the phrase:

 _”leading to Indian forces entering Pakistan. Pakistan responds with the use
of a handful of tactical nuclear weapons targeting those tanks and troops”_

seems to indicate that Pakistan would respond by nuking its own territory.
That may be the best choice tactically, but seems a tough choice for a
government to make. Is the border area that empty that that it won’t hit
Pakistani harder than Indians?

