

Android Growing Faster Than All Other Mobile Platforms (In the US) - bensummers
http://phandroid.com/2010/03/10/android-growing-ridiculously-faster-than-all-other-mobile-platforms-in-the-us/

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mechanical_fish
Obviously Android is growing, but this rhetorical trick to make the growth
look RIDICULOUS is... ridiculous.

I'm not sure why this analysis stopped in October 2009. Why not go back to
October 2008? Then the stats would look something like this:

    
    
      all other phones:
        sales in October 2008: finite
        sales in Jan 2010: larger
        percentage increase: big
    
      Android phones:
        sales in October 2008: zero
        sales in Jan 2010: large
        percentage increase: INFINITY!!!
    

In other words, I assert that one big reason why Android has grown so fast
since "the three month period ending in October 2009" is that before then
there was only one or two Android phones, they were all from HTC, as I
remember they were rather poorly marketed, and as a result they sold modestly
but not spectacularly. When you're down that far, there's a lot of upside
potential.

Take a look at this chart:

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Android_devices>

What you will see is that the bulk of Android-powered devices, including the
ones with the big popularity and big press from Motorola and (of course)
Google itself, all came out after October 2009.

Cherry-picking certain parts of the sales growth curve and then extrapolating
them to infinity does not add additional information. Take the data for what
it is: The newest Android-powered devices are selling much, much better than
the old; Apple's three-year-old iPhone platform has reached a marketshare
plateau (not astonishing: three years is a long time in the phone market;
unlike Android the iPhone OS is only available on a few types of device from
one vendor; and in many markets the iPhone is chained firmly to specific
telecom vendors, as Bay Area AT&T customers know all too well). Meanwhile, it
sure is nice to be RIM, Microsoft's marketshare is doing about what everyone
expected, and, well, it's really too bad about Palm.

EDIT: Oh, wait, these are _smartphone subscriber_ stats. As such they probably
don't include Apple's iPod Touch or other non-phone devices. (e.g. Does the
Nook count?) When judging the installed base of the _software platforms_ ,
rather than the size of various markets for cellphone minutes, this is a big
omission, since Apple is known to do a huge iPod Touch business.

~~~
clusterfu_k
To be fair, Android also had the largest total increase in market share by
increasing 4.3%, whereas the next highest total increase was 1.7%. That is
pretty significant.

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timthorn
As the newest mobile OS on the market, I would be very surprised if Android's
growth stats weren't large compared with the mature platforms.

~~~
freetard
Except Android is older than WebOS.

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morisy
As Timthorn mentioned, a high growth rate from a small base isn't really
impressive. Last year, it was on one U.S. carrier, and T-Mobile at that. Now,
everyone but AT&T has it.

Aside from that, however, Android's tackling a range of devices from the high
end tier to what the industry terms "feature phones," devices that hope to
tackle one area and tackle it really well (i.e., photos, texting, social
media). These are lower margin but higher gross, and for now, completely
uninteresting to Apple but Android provides a perfect platform for crafty
manufacturers to quickly churn them out.

~~~
barrkel
The Nexus One is a better phone than the iPhone for the technologically adept.
Apple is not uninterested; its recent lawsuit against HTC is testament to its
fear.

~~~
Flow
Maybe it is, but it does give a very unfinished feeling when just about
everything scrolls at like 10-15Hz instead of silky smooth as iPhone does.

~~~
barrkel
For sure, and e.g. the media player is quite clunky, and the SD card has no
standard layout. But the ability to have e.g. my todo list, or my calendar
items, or a twitter feed etc. as widgets on my home screen is more tangible.
And application association mechanism is useful too - I can replace the
various media players, browser etc. and actions from different applications
respect my wishes, rather than following some one true way. And I can get
notifications and alerts from background apps - works really well for me
monitoring various remote services.

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buster
The growth is quite good, i am happy for that. But it is not RIDICULOUSLY
faster. This interpretation of statistics is just too much.

It's probably why i stopped reading phandroid. My suggestion for android news:
<http://www.planetandroid.com/>

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alex_c
I don't really understand all the comments saying "of course it's growing
extremely fast, it's a new platform". The point is that a year ago it wasn't
at all obvious whether Android will become one of the major mobile platforms -
now it's practically certain.

Yes, there's hyperbole in the article (what do you expect from a site called
"Android Phone Fans"), but I really don't understand the attitude that, since
it's a new platform, its growth is somehow self-evident. Many (most?) new
platforms never take off - how's Palm doing, for example?

See:

<http://metrics.admob.com/2010/01/metrics-update-android/>

and tell me that's not a curve most platforms can only dream of.

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Jim72
It is growing fast. It has more than doubled its market share. I don't care
how small the actual starting number was, it is still good progress. If you
don't think so, go ask Palm!

On a similar note, the rapid Android evolution, I think, might actually be
harmful. I have been without a contract for over a year now. I have been
wanting an Android phone. However, each time I settle for one, a new and
better one rises over the horizon. So I wait. By the time that one comes to
market, the pattern is repeated.

Another real interesting story, from this data, is that the iPhone growth has
become stagnate. Looks like Apple hit the ceiling! Unless of course they add
in iPad sales numbers next year.

~~~
orangecat
_I have been without a contract for over a year now. I have been wanting an
Android phone. I have been wanting an Android phone. However, each time I
settle for one, a new and better one rises over the horizon. So I wait._

Contract-free Nexus One plus month-by-month with T-Mobile. There's nothing
significantly better due out for several months, and if you want to upgrade in
a year or so you won't have a problem selling it.

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hyperbovine
I know I should not expect too much from "Phandroid.com", but the only thing
ridiculous here is the way this guy cooks the numbers. If RIM saw twice the
growth as Android they would score 20.8% on his chart. The percent change in
percents is not a meaningful number.

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10ren
RIM grew three times faster than Apple during this period.

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dzlobin
I mean realistically, a huge number of people already have an
iphone/blackberry, and the android phones are just starting to be good enough
to buy.

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RK
It will be interesting to see what happens in the US now that all 4 major
carriers have TV ads featuring Android phones.

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RyanMcGreal
Fast growth is pretty easy when it's growth from zero.

