
U.S. Says Russia Might Be Setting Off Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons - tomohawk
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/28282/u-s-says-russia-might-be-setting-off-very-low-yield-nuclear-weapons-on-this-arctic-island
======
sehugg
Dispute Over Russian Testing Divides U.S. Nuclear Experts (2001) \-
[https://www.nytimes.com/2001/03/04/world/dispute-over-
russia...](https://www.nytimes.com/2001/03/04/world/dispute-over-russian-
testing-divides-us-nuclear-experts.html)

It's well-known that John Bolton hates arms treaties, see this 2009 op-ed:
[https://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/26/opinion/26bolton.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/26/opinion/26bolton.html)

And this:
[https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703618504575459...](https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703618504575459511831427690)

And this: [https://www.npr.org/2018/10/23/659911920/bolton-affirms-
u-s-...](https://www.npr.org/2018/10/23/659911920/bolton-affirms-u-s-intent-
to-pull-out-of-arms-treaty-with-russia)

And this: [https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-
chaos/2016/09/26/w...](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-
chaos/2016/09/26/whats-the-deal-with-senate-republicans-and-the-test-ban-
treaty/)

 _While the CTBT has not entered into force, a monitoring system has been set
up around the world with sensors to detect nuclear explosions, whether they
are in the atmosphere, underwater, or underground. Twenty-five of the system’s
monitoring stations detected the September 9 North Korean nuclear test._

If your admin is itching to abandon multiple nuclear treaties, I'd like more
than a "probably" at a speech at a think tank, given that we have an
international monitoring system.

EDIT: Comprehensive thread from @ArmsControlWonk:
[https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/11338146849627914...](https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1133814684962791424)

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OBLIQUE_PILLAR
Please read why this article is alarmist garbage.

[https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/11338146849627914...](https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1133814684962791424?s=19)

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ncmncm
Funny, they use the "safety and reliability" line in the article. Immediately
after Congress passed legislation creating the DOE, charged with maintaining
S&R, DOE announced that they were going to interpret "safety" to mean, NOT "it
won't pop when it shouldn't, or leak or anything" but rather "it pops when you
push the button". Then, "reliability" means "it makes as big a bang as
promised". Of course the fix was in from the start, but there must have been
reps _not_ in on it who would have insisted that not blowing up in the silo
was a more important goal than either. They got hoodwinked, and so did we.

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trhway
>Reports have since emerged that the U.S. government has been monitoring
Russia’s tests of its still-in-development nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise
missile, which the Kremlin says will be nuclear capable. These launches have
occurred from Novaya Zemlya and would, by definition, involve a nuclear
reactor smashing into the ground at the end of each test, whether it is
successful or not.

it sounds like real reactors. One would hope that it were mock-ups.

Wrt. the nuke warheads testing - Russia being that behind in supercomputer
capabilities which are required for simulation probably tries/looks for
various sneaking approaches of actual testing. I mean all that glorious super-
duper-"wunderwaffe" revealed by Putin in the last couple of years means
nothing without working warheads. The improved delivery precision allowed US
to produce even further yield tuned-down versions of W76 and W88 which
normally would require actual testing and was done using simulation instead.
The Russia seems to still stuck with the aging models of its warheads. It
makes me wonder that there seems to be no stories on attempted export of HPC
stuff to Russia similar to China
[https://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/04/10/us_intel_china_ban/](https://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/04/10/us_intel_china_ban/)

~~~
i_am_proteus
If the rocket is powered by a reactor, at some point a test of the propulsion
system requires a reactor.

------
thomascgalvin
> The Wall Street Journal was first to report the accusation on May 29, 2019,
> citing a U.S. intelligence assessment and comments from U.S. Army Lieutenant
> General Robert Ashley, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA).

So this isn't dick waving or Twitter posing: this is a legitimate intelligence
officer making this assertion.

This is absolutely terrifying. We are witnessing the unraveling of the near-
universal sentiment that the use of nuclear weapons is unacceptable.

~~~
vageli
> > The Wall Street Journal was first to report the accusation on May 29,
> 2019, citing a U.S. intelligence assessment and comments from U.S. Army
> Lieutenant General Robert Ashley, director of the Defense Intelligence
> Agency (DIA).

> So this isn't dick waving or Twitter posing: this is a legitimate
> intelligence officer making this assertion.

> This is absolutely terrifying. We are witnessing the unraveling of the near-
> universal sentiment that the use of nuclear weapons is unacceptable.

Didn't legitimate intelligence point to WMDs in Iraq?

