
A decade-long boom is ending as consumers hang on to devices for longer - Austin_Conlon
https://www.economist.com/business/2019/01/12/apple-succumbs-to-the-smartphone-malaise
======
DoubleGlazing
I used to work for a mobile phone wholesaler that also owned a phone repair
business and they noticed this trend as far back as 2013. The age of phones
coming in for repair was rising year on year. They were coming under pressure
from manufacturers and retailers to disincentivise customers from repairing
older phones. One manufacturer even threatened to stop paying for in-warranty
repairs if the company offered an out-of-warranty repair service.

The problem is that smartphones are way too expensive. Back in the old days of
dumb phones a top end SIM free phone would cost no more than €400. Most people
would opt for a cheaper model that allowed for a 12 months subsidy with the
phone being free and monthly fees being fairly low by todays standards. In the
UK it was common to find deals where you got a cheap phone for free, plus a
game console or TV on a 12 month contract.

Now it has flipped. Top end phones are now nudging €1000, this means higher
monthly fees plus 24-36 month contracts. That's a hell of a commitment,
especially considering smart phones aren't as durable as dumb phones were. Of
course people are repairing phones when they cost that much.

Plus, there is less of a feature incentive to upgrade. All I use my phone for
is web browsing, email, social stuff and photo/video - it's three years old
and does all that with no lag. New models don't offer me enough of an
incentive to upgrade.

If manufacturers want people to upgrade more often they need to work on
curbing the price of top end models. The more expensive they are, the longer
people are going to want them to last. Also, a bit more innovation would be
nice - must every smartphone follow the exact same black rectangle design
template?

~~~
collyw
I bought a Motorola last year for €160, which isn't a great deal. It works
perfectly well. It isn't slow. (Admittedly I am not glued to my phone 24-7
like some people).

I have no idea why people feel the need to spend 6 or 7 times more for the
latest iPhone. What do you get for the extra money that is actually useful? I
know it has a "better" screen but I never had a problem reading on the phone I
have. Faster processor? Are people performing heavy computing on their phones,
or just sending some whatsapp messages ans surfing the web?

~~~
wepple
Security. My phone is the root of trust for my life. It has my password
manager (I never use a PM on a full computer) and is my only truly trusted
device.

I wouldn’t trust your Motorola’s timely security updates or hardware trustzone
implememtation.

~~~
zcid
Funny you say that. I'm the exact opposite. I consider my laptop to be much
more likely to be secure than my phone.

~~~
ljackman
Most laptop OSes, like Windows, macOS, and Linux, are a decade behind mobile
OSes in terms of application sandboxing and also still lagging behind on
restricting OS tampering and implementing reliable chains of trust from the
system software to the hardware level, e.g. features like secure enclaves.

Unfortunately, those restrictions also make mobile OSes less useful for the
sort of technical work that people use "real" OSes for. However, those
restrictions make such devices much more compelling roots of trust for our
digital lives.

An iOS app can't extract my contacts unless I grant permission, yet an
application installed on Ubuntu via `apt` can casually start rummaging around
my home directory which I won't know about unless I spend considerable time on
mandatory access control profiles, isolation through containerisation or
virtualisation, or something equally esoteric for the average user.

I suppose a phone does hold more sensitive information though, like location
and mobile payments, making it a more lucrative target.

~~~
snovv_crash
These desktop OSs don't, however, run a baseband known to be littered with
bugs that listens for commands over the EM spectrum amd has low level access
to the entire system. Even airplane mode just means it doesn't transmit.

~~~
ljackman
Good point. The lack of visibility into today's blackbox commodity hardware is
frightening, such as Intel ME. It's even worse when that hardware is listening
to external commands via the EM spectrum and the like, as you point out.

------
hnruss
As a software developer, people tend to assume that I’m really into hardware
as well. They’re usually surprised when I tell them that I prefer to buy older
hardware and keep it running for longer. I often skip multiple generations of
devices.

I just bought a new TV with Roku built in. My last TV was a tube TV.

I’m writing this on a iPhone SE, which I upgraded to for $100 when my 5S
stopped working. I kept the same phone case. I’ll probably buy another iPhone
when they release a new one with the same size screen. I might get a new phone
case then, too.

I was playing Zelda on the original Wii earlier. It’s the newest game console
that I own.

Don’t get me wrong, I think new stuff is cool, too. I’d just rather go on a
trip than have the newest cool thing.

~~~
ekianjo
Honestly people who buy new hardware every year are not "into hardware", they
are into wasting their money and finding a pretense to justifying it. Most of
them are probably just bored or treat it like fashion.

~~~
bunderbunder
This is roughly what I observe. With the exception of a subset of techies, the
people I know who always have the latest and greatest also tend to make very
minimal use of the latest and greatest features. I'm not convinced many of
them are upgrading for any purpose other than retail therapy.

A secondary hypothesis is that there is a contingent of people who buy and
install smart home devices just to annoy their non-tech-inclined spouses. That
one's not mine, though, I got it from one such spouse.

------
dimva
I would gladly buy a new phone if they stopped _taking away_ features. I
currently use an iPhone SE, and I treat my phone as an extension of my brain -
I use it 5 hours / day. For me, the pros/cons of an upgrade to an iPhone XS
are:

Pros: better camera, faster processor, water resistant

Cons: no headphone jack, too large for my hands

It's not obvious that upgrading would make my life better - it's more likely
to make things worse, actually. I'm not paying $1000 for that.

~~~
ianai
They’re also making phones that are less comfortable to hold. But taking away
the headphone jack is a non-starter for me. The FaceID “only” thing is a deal
breaker for professional reasons. I also can’t stand the notch. They clearly
don’t like the notch, either, since they hide it in all of their marketing.
I’d rather they removed the selfie camera and relocate the speaker to the top
of the phone.

Love my SE. The size is crazy portable. It’s even a little too thin for my
comfort. But it’s so thin that a battery case isn’t a problem.

~~~
jessriedel
> I also can’t stand the notch....I’d rather they removed the selfie camera
> and relocate the speaker to the top of the phone.

I agree, although note that on many phones the proximity sensory, ambient
light sensors, and/or face-recognition sensors are also located in the notch.
Moving those to the edges of the phone, or putting them below the display,
introduces additional engineering headaches.

I'd rather they just cut off the display about 5 mm from the top of the phone
and put whatever sensors they need in that narrow strip. Turning ~60% of that
5mm strip into display is pointless, ugly, and adds significant software
complications. Hopefully it's just a fad like the rounded display edges.

~~~
ianai
I think that’s what they will eventually do. I saw somewhere a paint had been
patented that matches the black of the edge of the case but that lets the
camera see out (or something like that). I do understand that there are
legitimate uses for the front of the phone real estate. But I think they’re
already willing to experiment with removing features for design so a perfectly
edge to edge display sans sensors and camera makes sense-if only as an option
amongst a couple options.

~~~
jessriedel
> I saw somewhere a paint had been patented that matches the black of the edge
> of the case but that lets the camera see out (or something like that)

Note that iPads already have some sensors behind the seemingly opaque white
paint. (Purely for style reasons, I think.) And it's already pretty hard to
see the front-facing camera on a black cell phone.

------
daemonhunter
When they cost as much as they do, is it really a surprise that a good portion
of people don't want to replace them every other year? I would like to be one
of the people replacing theirs every year or every other year and while I
could afford it, I can't justify the expenditure. Add to that the fact that
most phones purchased within the past couple of years remain performant enough
for most people.

~~~
bagacrap
Seems easy to justify to me. You use it constantly, a small increase in joy or
functionality multiplied by many hours = worth the cost of a speeding ticket.

~~~
josteink
3% faster is just going to be 3% faster, and nowhere near bringing me actual
joy.

Having to pay $100 a month for a difference barely measurable in real world
performance however... That will cause me real-world dissatisfaction.

~~~
Dylan16807
You're kidding about those numbers, right?

An optimistic _but realistic_ scenario is something like 40% faster and $20 a
month, where the phone is used a lot and the speed translates into saving
multiple hours a month. Definitely worth it there.

~~~
mdorazio
40% faster _at what_? Games that you aren't going to play? The vast majority
of users aren't going to notice a speed increase in their daily tasks. It's
like claiming the latest Intel desktop processor is X% faster than last year's
when the bottleneck outside of a few applications is not the processor.

~~~
Dylan16807
You never wait for your phone's processor? I certainly do. It doesn't benefit
all the time, but it definitely benefits outside of games.

I regret not elaborating on how X% processor benefit would only be Y% real
life benefit, but I thought my point was clear enough. I would have been
making a _much_ stronger claim about hours saved if I actually thought the
total use of the phone would go 40% faster...

~~~
mdorazio
I run a 3 year old phone and no, I have never waited due to the phone's
processor. Any lags have typically been the result of memory shuffling or
lengthy app bootup times that have noting to do with processor speed. I'm
fairly confident saying phone processors haven't been a bottleneck for most
people since probably 2015.

------
continuations
Cellphones have reached the state of performance surplus that desktops have
reached years ago. There's simply no reason to upgrade. I'm still using the
desktop I built in 2013 w i7-3770 & 32GB RAM for $600. There's been no reason
to get a new one.

As phones are becoming commodities like computers, I wonder if Apple will meet
the same fate in mobile as it did in computers: being marginalized as a niche
player in the market it pioneered as most people flock to the mainstream
choice (Windows for computer, Android for phone)

~~~
AnIdiotOnTheNet
> I'm still using the desktop I built in 2013 w i7-3770 & 32GB RAM for $600

Did you steal half the hardware? I'm trying to do the math in my head and I'm
pretty sure the RAM alone cost at least $600. I know I paid significantly more
for my i7-2600k w/ 16GB in 2012.

~~~
continuations
I bought used CPU & RAM. And no discrete GPU.

------
thatoneuser
There’s no point in upgrading anymore aside from ditching the feeling that
your phone is slow (which is likely fixed with a factory reset).

Camera is infinitesimally better. Processor is better in a way you can’t
measure. Oh now you can push anywhere to use your fingerprint!

There’s no more cash cow cuz phones aren’t getting noticeably better. Get back
to me when I can stop using my thumbs to type or when the world becomes my
monitor. Maybe I sound entitled but some day the bullions these companies keep
expecting has to be justified.

~~~
iClaudiusX
The thing that would get me excited about mobile devices is the ability to run
my own programs and access a real file system like a general purpose computer.
That would be a real improvement in capability along the lines of the first
true smartphone with a touchscreen, browser, and GPS for turn-by-turn
navigation.

~~~
tuukkah
Android is Linux: it has a real file system that you can access. You can run
your own programs on it as well.

~~~
Jedi72
Running programs inside a sandbox is not what the OP is talking about. If you
can't reinstall your own OS and get root permission* to talk to the hardware,
you're not really in control of whats going on.

*Im of course aware you can root Android phones and jailbreak iPhones, again this isnt what OP is talking about - they void warranties and are challenging/time consuming even for tech people.

~~~
shawnz
Why do you need root access to the hardware for it to be considered a general
purpose computing device? If someone provides you an account on a server where
you don't have root access, would you not describe that a general purpose
computer device with a real filesystem where you can run your own programs?

~~~
josteink
> Why do you need root access to the hardware for it to be considered a
> general purpose computing device?

Unless you have root access _someone else_ gets to define what “general
purpose” is.

Someone else gets to tell you “no, that’s off limits”.

That’s doesn’t sound like being in control of your own device to me.

~~~
shawnz
The manufacturer gets to decide if they're manufacturing a general purpose
computing device or not, but they don't get to define what general purpose is.
Either it executes arbitrary code or it doesn't, which my Android device does
just fine without root access. So I would call it a general purpose computing
device.

Root access is just a platform specific construct, and it doesn't necessarily
have an important purpose on every platform. Furthermore there are lots of
ways that a platform could take away your control even if you had root access,
such as through binary firmware blobs (which I'm sure you're running dozens
right now, as am I probably).

~~~
josteink
> Root access is just a platform specific construct

Root access is the machine _never_ being permitted to tell the human owner
“no”.

Nothing platform-specific about that what so ever.

On the contrary I’d rather say it’s so detached from platform it’s more like a
fundamental principle than anything else, a technological ism of sorts.

~~~
shawnz
But there are lots of situations where you can't do things even with root
access on a unix-like machine. I gave one example already -- root access
doesn't give you control over the operation of system firmware. But there are
others, too. For example, root access doesn't let you write to kernel memory,
it doesn't let you bypass SELinux policies, etc. The way you are defining root
access here essentially doesn't apply to any modern computing system.

------
roenxi
The Jobs-era strategy at Apple was pretty straightforward. From what I recall
around 2000-2010 the Apple strategy was:

1) Decided on a minimum acceptable functionality for a device

2) Set up uncompromising logistics chains to support creating a device (eg,
famously, touchscreens)

3) Price at a rate that was extremely competitive when considering the device
components

4) Crush competitors who could only offer cheap goods that didn't really do
what Apple's could, or expensive goods that could match functionality but not
price - recall the iPad's original differentiation was it was cheaper than
expected, given what it did. It looked very cheap compared to the preemptive
tablet releases of the time trying to head its success off at the pass.

They've made a lot of money over the last few years, but that strategy doesn't
seem to match the modern Apple's approach. The price gap between an iPod Touch
and the cheapest iPhone is not something I'd have expected of 2010 Apple.

 _EDIT_ I looked for a source -
[https://www.videogamesblogger.com/2010/03/29/ipod-touch-
vs-i...](https://www.videogamesblogger.com/2010/03/29/ipod-touch-vs-iphone-vs-
ipad-comparison.htm) \- initial iPhone was extremely comparable to an
expensive iPod.

~~~
saagarjha
> The price gap between an iPod Touch and the cheapest iPhone is not something
> I'd have expected of 2010 Apple.

Just to confirm, up until a couple of months ago, the difference between the
low-end iPod Touch and the cheapest iPhone was $150, and today this is $250. I
don't recall there ever being a time that this was significantly lower.

------
kashyapc
A proud owner of Nexus-5 for five years waves hi. It's still in top-notch
condition; only had to replace the screen protector once, and did a small
surgery to replace the "irreplaceable" battery. I keep telling my friends that
I am planning to use this for 10 years.

/me hopes that the fine community of LineageOS provides at least security
patches for Nexus-5 for the upcoming five years.

~~~
zozbot123
Nexus 5 is expected to be the flagship device for PostmarketOS, running on a
mainline kernel, even. So, it will be in _very_ good shape for the foreseeable
future, even after it's no longer able to run a supported version of Android.

(Besides, I don't buy the notion that current phones are more expensive than
in the past. A good baseline-to-midrange device, costing around $300, can do
everything that the N5 could and more. The Xiaomi A line is very good, or you
can pick Asus or BQ if you're concerned about Xiaomi being from China. Really,
just pick something that's trivially unlocked and has good support by the
modding community, and you're good to go.)

~~~
kashyapc
Oh, very interesting information on "postmarketOS"; didn't come across it
before. I'll need to do some research about what that community's goals are
(although, the name implies some), how sustainable they are in the long-term,
etc.

Apparently it's based on Alpine Linux. And from a quick reading, it sounds
very promising:

"... postmarketOS is developed in the spirit of regular Linux distributions
... Furthermore postmarketOS will not impose arbitrary restrictions on you.
Use the apps from any ecosystem you want (even desktop software). With
Alpine's simple package format, you do not need more than a bit of Linux
knowledge to package your favorite programs (assuming that they run on Linux
already)."

------
inamberclad
Are consumers rallying against the excess of the smartphone market or is this
just a product of the quality of new devices? The yearly improvements feel
more incremental than ever, so I'm inclined to think it's a little of both.

~~~
skookumchuck
My old iphone6 does everything I want in a phone.

~~~
mroche
Still rocking an iPhone 6 here as well. I just can’t lose the jack... :P

My battery life isn’t what it used to be, but I can still make it a full day
with slightly less usage (restricted to browser/text based mediums). Should
have taken advantage of the battery upgrade. Meanwhile my sibling’s 6S(?) Plus
drains charge like someone is bloodletting it.

~~~
b1daly
I have a 6s plus, and had the battery replaced, and still drains the battery
like that. I’ve tried all the obvious tricks. I’m befuddled by this, it’s the
worst battery life of any phone I’ve had. I thought the bigger case would have
helped, but maybe the bigger screen out weighs it.

What I find mystifying is why as an average user it’s impossible to figure out
why it happens, is it normal, is your phone broken?

Apple docs and support provide no insight into one of the primary usability
issues.

Other than that, it’s quite a nice phone. I picked it up cheap on Craigslist
and it’s going strong for two years.

~~~
saagarjha
Does the battery breakdown in Settings help? Try comparing your apps to the
built-in ones.

------
sn41
I am happy to say that my desktop from 2004 is still alive and kicking. Some
websites are a drag, but some on-board replacements have kept the old warrior
running. I hope one day we can keep our smartphones on life support for a long
time.

~~~
asaph
You still use a desktop? The portability of a laptop is something I couldn't
do without.

~~~
skookumchuck
It's impossible for me to write code on the weenie screen of a laptop. Plus I
hate the laptop chicklet keyboards and the touchpad that my palm is always
accidentally brushing against.

If I could, I'd have a 4x8 foot display with no decrease in pixel density.
I.e. an incredible number of pixels.

Heck, why stop there. Give me a wall sized display! Phooey on laptops.

~~~
leeoniya
> If I could, I'd have a 4x8 foot display with no decrease in pixel density.
> I.e. an incredible number of pixels.

i think you would find this setup to be really poor.

you need be within ~2ft viewing to appreciate the difference between 1080p and
4k at 24" diagonal display size.

sitting 2ft from an 8ft wide display will give you very poor viewing angles
for the majority of the content. at greater distances than 2ft, the pixel
density of a 4k 24" display become nothing more than waste of gpu, cpu and
electricity.

~~~
skookumchuck
Maybe. I know I could easily make use of one double (in both x and y) the size
I currently have.

As for discerning pixels, I know that the retina display is distinctly easier
to read than non-retina (both from Apple) even though I could not see the
pixelation on the latter. Watching video does not make much difference, but
reading text sure does.

~~~
bluedino
PDF’s are a good example of things that look terrible on non-Retina displays

------
fipple
The vendors have thrived for a decade just by improving specs. We went from
NTSC to 1080p to 4K and TV sizes from 27 inches to 55 inches. But now peoples
eyes aren’t good enough and their houses aren’t big enough to need anymore.
Same thing with phones. It used to be that an old phone felt slow compared to
a new one. But now they’re fine for most uses.

If companies want to sell devices they need new shit to sell. VR, AR is one
possible avenue. Smart Home is another. But don’t expect me to just volunteer
$1K for a slightly better version of what I already have.

~~~
hliyan
In the 90's phone manufacturers tried doubling down on one of the main selling
features: size. I saw phones almost as small as a Zippo lighter on the market
before the industry regained its sanity. Today we're similarly going to the
extremes of screen size + thinness.

I believe once the industry once again regains its sanity, we might see a new
form factor:

1\. Smaller, egg-shaped 'pods' that fit more comfortably in your palm and
pocket, something along the lines of:
[http://www.yankodesign.com/2008/05/05/mobile-phone-shaped-
li...](http://www.yankodesign.com/2008/05/05/mobile-phone-shaped-like-and-egg-
sorta/)

2\. Thicker, but less dense and more durable (think Nokia 3310)

3\. Some form of innovative physical scroll/click control on the edges of the
device to alleviate thumb-scrolling (perhaps a pressure sensor with no moving
parts)

4\. Perhaps even a control on the rear side of the device, that can be
activated with the index finger (for single handed operation)

~~~
eitland
Agree.

I'm considering a 3310 class device plus a high end pad with a pen (one in the
same price range as a reasonable phone) for when my current phone breaks.

(Currently I'm on a Nokia 6.1 AndroidOne and except the camera it is really
good and costed literally a fraction of other new phones. Considering the fact
that my job pays my phone and it tells something about what I think about
current flagship phones and prices.)

------
clumsysmurf
> Optimists (and phonemakers) argue that a new wave of innovation could
> rejuvenate demand.

Hopefully that innovation is the return of the headphone jack :P

~~~
asaph
I switched to wireless headphones (AirPods) and don't miss the headphone jack
at all. Good riddance to tangled wires.

~~~
mclehman
I have wireless headphones and a Pixel 2 and still wish I had a jack.
Sometimes you just want to get in a friend's car and be able to play music or
use a nice pair of open-backed headphones when you won't bother someone. I'd
still have the choice of whether or not to say good riddance to tangled wires
if my phone had a headphone jack.

~~~
asaph
You still have the choice via an adapter.

~~~
xg15
Which you probably won't have with you at the right moment.

~~~
wilsonnb3
I just keep mine attached to my keys with a “dongle dangler” and this has
never been a problem.

People love to complain about how inconvenient losing the headphone jack is
(especially people with phones that still have it!) but that’s just because
this is the internet, where everybody complains about everything.

------
DyslexicAtheist
had a samsung galaxy S4 until start of this year. I made a bet with myself and
put it in a drawer where it remains until 2020. Then I'll decide if I really
must have a mobile phone or not.

I have reduced usage and removed all apps last year then started to leave it
at home when going out since past Fall. This way it wasn't a total ice-bucket
challenge. I haven't missed it for a moment yet. When I go out and wait for
the bus or tram to arrive I look at other people, the clouds and my general
environment. I am more calm again and it feels like everyone else glued to
their screen is part of some matrix. They almost obsessively dig around their
pockets quickly to find their phone as soon as they get on the bus in order to
avoid eye-contact with everyone else at all cost. I remember how it was when I
too did this it was like some kind of insecurity that my phone allowed me to
escape. e.g. I pretend that I'm busy on my phone ... because there is a pretty
girl on the other side and the last thing I want is to look at her ... if
she'd notice me she would think I am a weirdo because I'm just sitting their
without doing anything and even get the impression that I stare ... Or I get
an uncomfortable vibe from somebody else on the bus and so quickly get my
phone because the pretend-world in there feels just so much safer. It also
shows the world that I do have a life and am not just a weirdo. Or does it?

I remember going out w/out a phone last year and I was in a different city
(and country). Asking a passerby on the road was the only option and he
actually said to me why you don't just check google maps yourself. I told him
sorry my battery is flat which seemed the only correct response without
looking like a total weirdo.

But these are outliers, in general I do just fine. The reason why I became
militant about not having a phone was when I see my gf who is a hell of a lot
younger than me and was pushed into using it by her own parents. They would
freak out if she wasn't reachable for even a short time and so she always had
one on her since the age of twelve. When I was 12 mobile phones didn't even
exist and I owned my first phone when I was 22 (it was a Motorola brick phone
and my employer gave it to me to stay in touch). I see a lot of the anxiety
people complain about every day being rooted in phones and their capability to
distract and steal our time (life's too short for this shit ... but then I'm
just an old man shouting at the cloud).

------
zepto
Longer lasting devices are strategic for Apple.

It means a larger installed base for the delivery of software, services, and
adjunct devices which otherwise wouldn’t be possible when competing against
cheap android devices.

A lower TCO is a selling point. Analysts are just failing to understand the
evolution of the business model.

~~~
santoshalper
This doesn't make any sense and isn't backed by any evidence. Software
purchased for either phone platform is entirely device independent. Why would
longer hardware purchase cycles impact software sales either way? I don't
think there is any correlation here at all.

Analysts aren't making this up. Apple's financials have been stagnant because
they can't get people excited about new devices. It's not unique to Apple
either, new smartphones just aren't that interesting anymore.

~~~
b1daly
Apple devices do have relatively long useful life. My main workstation is a
2009 Mac Pro that I’ve maxed out, and it remains a highly performant machine.

Our household has a long tail of Apple products, that get passed down, or put
to different uses.

This is hugely important for Apple business strategy. Not only does it please
the customer to have well made, long lasting hardware, it cements the
“ecosystem” into a much more embedded place in the lives of users.

Apple has competive advantages and disadvantages, but it absolutely must
maintain customer loyalty. To even break out service revenue is a little
uniformative, because the feedback loops they get from having a tightly
integrated system are huge.

Apple has struggled with the online platform aspect of its business, compared
to Google, Amazon, etc...but even if it’s not a market leader, if they can get
a “good enough “ product that prevents users from leaving the ecosystem that
is huge.

A paradigm example is Apple Maps which was a source of embarrassment for a
while. Going up against Google in this space seems insane.

But they finally got it good enough that my guess is vast majority of iPhone
users use Apple Maps, not Google. Ideally, Apple wants to prevent as many
people as possible from having to get a google account as they can!

------
chriselles
Is the lenghtening replacement cycle on mobile phones identical to the
lengthening replacement cycle on PC’s from a generation ago?

I recall in the early days of PCs software drove(compelled?) PC hardware
upgrades every 2 or so years.

Then hardware upgrades became unnecessary unless you were a hardcore gamer.

Wouldn’t the same hardware/software relationship apply with mobile phone
hardware?

What’s the next compelling value proposition?

Will a next generation AI/ML Assistant compel a hardware upgrade in terms of
an AI focused chipset or additional sensors for data collection?

Is there anything in the Chinese WeChat ecosystem that compels mobile hardware
upgrades?

How else can human vanity in terms of mobile hardware/software be exploited?

------
jonquark
I'm surprised that the comments don't focus much on security patches.
Manufacturers are trying very hard to have built-in obsolescence:
[https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/31/dutch_court_says_sa...](https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/31/dutch_court_says_samsung_has_no_obligation_to_keep_old_phones_patched/)
Unless this fundamentally changes, most non-techy users will have to
needlessly upgrade perfectly good devices, run insecure software or become
much more savvy about which manufacturers are better in this regard.

~~~
captainbland
I wonder if there's viable market in keeping old phones up to date, maybe as
some kind of add-on to battery replacement services and such like. I'd guess
it's probably too low value given the work involved, which is a shame.

~~~
tw04
There was - cyanogenmod. Then they got greedy, screwed most of their open
source contributors, and were dumb enough to actually claim they were going to
take out Android.

End results was Google pulling more and more out of the base OS to prevent
anyone from ever really forking android again, as well as cyanogenmod
leadership screwing several OEM partners (oneplus in India), and they're
basically dead now.

The community is still there but it seems like it took a massive hit after
that debacle.

~~~
zozbot123
These days, PostmarketOS is trying to support those older devices, and in a
way that _actually_ takes out Android! ...out of the device I mean, haha. But
IIRC, most devices that CM used to run on, only had 512MB of RAM-- and that's
honestly not enough to even browse the web on nowadays. (Many of them are also
on earlier flavors of ARM that would be a bit harder to support natively, with
e.g. Alpine having dropped support for anything earlier than ARM7.)

------
baybal2
Repost from a month ago;

Very true, I'd say a downgrade is the trend. I saw like 10+ people deciding to
switch from "superphones" down to mid-range models, and even dumbphones for
their new phones. People who had ultrabooks, often try Atom based notebooks
and sufraces. The key deciding factor for such people, I think, is having a
good screen and bearable ergonomics (no microscopic keyboards, or batteries.)
The data I have access to tell that the "big screen, small CPU," is the
category with the biggest year on year growth. Atom based 14 and 15 inchers
are selling like hot cookies.

As a person working in the industry, I can say that's a very visible trend.
People switch their devices more due to battery and physical wear than actual
need for more features.

In that respect, things got very "Japanised" in respect that Japanese
cellphone makers are often making new models every season with no real changes
other than cosmetic.

Japan is also the only developed market where "dumbphones" ever saw few
upwards trends in last 5 years.

------
jader201
I keep seeing article after article talking about to slow down of buying
phones, but I’ve never seen any mention of the main reason I stopped buying
phones every year:

They stopped subsidizing them.

For a while, most carriers (at least AT&T with iPhones) would include a phone
with a two year contract as part of your monthly bill. But about 3 or 4 years
ago, they stopped doing this. And so people had no incentive to renew every
time they were eligible.

Everybody I’m close to stopped for this reason. Now they only renew now when
they have to, or when there’s a really compelling reason to. And any more,
both of these are becoming less and less of a need.

Why has nobody talked about this?

~~~
petersellers
I don’t think “subsidizing” is the right word as the customer still had to pay
for the full price of the phone. The carrier would just spread out the cost of
half of the phone across a 2 year period.

Nowadays (at least for Verizon) you can get a phone for nothing upfront and
have the entire cost spread out over a 2 year period. Basically the same as
before except it requires nothing down instead of half the phone value. If
anything I feel this method is more likely to get people to sign up as it
requires nothing upfront.

~~~
jader201
If I remember correctly, the “fee” they charged for the phone was charged
regardless of whether or not you renewed. I remember doing the math multiple
times each year, and there was never a reason to _not_ renew, unless you
planned on changing carriers.

------
notacoward
One factor I haven't seen mentioned is that moving everything to a new phone
is a bit of a risk and a pain. Reinstalling apps, reestablishing connections
and credentials, manually moving the stuff that inevitably got missed, getting
a new case. Bleh. If I have to spend my money _and_ my time, there has to be
more than a sliver of payback, but a sliver is usually all that's offered.
Forget it. In another few months my work phone will be up for replacement, and
TBH I'm not looking forward to it. Just another damn forced "upgrade" to steal
away my time for no real gain.

------
J253
Smartphones are so refined these days that upgrading yearly or even every two
years just doesn’t seem worth it to me if I’m paying full retail price for it.

However, if the carrier companies still offered subsidized phones I’d be more
than happy to upgrade for the subsidized price. It wasn’t until NEXT and all
the similar “pay the full price over N months” plans came along that I stopped
upgrading regularly.

Seems like the burden of not upgrading has fallen back on the smartphone
manufacturer, no? If I’m paying full price I’m either going to buy less often
or look for a cheaper option.

~~~
xbmcuser
This was also one of the major reasons for apple getting such a large market
share in the US. As people were not required to pay full price for the phones
buying a $100 iphone or $50 android phone with contract didn't affect many
people but paying $1000 or $500 will.

------
blt
Same thing happened with desktop PC's around when the Core 2 Duo came out and
1080p lcd displays became standard. The machines can do most of the stuff we
want them to do.

------
Animats
There's no next big thing in the pipeline. And everybody already has a
smartphone.

~~~
arketyp
Now is the time for the cloud I think. Phones are pretty much laptops and
laptops have replaced desktops, heavy tasks are more often outsourced. When
the hardware is interchangeable (and that includes the next version of the
iPhone) that's when the demand for the cloud will be heard. Before it was a
convenience, now it's an exigent matter of not being able to keep things
apart.

Up until now, devices have been objects of treasure and identification. When
what your machine does is taken for granted, something else will have to
replace it as your personal hearth keeping you warm at night.

I agree that there is no next big thing. But there _is_ a next big "thing".

~~~
hn_throwaway_99
Umm, huh? No offense but this looks like a game of buzzword bingo. "Now is the
time for the cloud I think." How does "the cloud" have anything to do with the
rest of what you've written?

~~~
Animats
Also, Amazon AWS opened in 2006. The first iPhone shipped in 2007. "The Cloud"
has been around for a while.

------
shaklee3
I've had my Nexus 6p for close to 3.5 years. The battery has started dying
early recently, so I considered replacing the phone. But it's still plenty
fast for me, and there's nothing I'd possibly get from an upgrade besides a
better camera, so I just replaced the battery for $20. Works like new again,
and hopefully lasts a couple more years.

------
amanzi
The rate of perceivable changes has decreased over recent years while the
price of flagships has increased substantially. I have a Galaxy S7 and it
still works perfectly well for everything I need. The only issue with it is
that I know Samsung won't be releasing Android Pie for this model, so I'll be
forced into an upgrade if I want to stay on a current version.

~~~
lordnacho
Do you not find everything gets slower with each software update? This is the
principal reason I dumped Samsung.

Everything was working fine, then update, then brick.

------
atiredturte
I owned a samsung s8 for a while, purchased it for about $700 brand new just
when it came out. Since it followed the new trend of having everything be
glass, and I am a clumsy person, it ended up breaking.

Repairing it would have cost be about $400, and second hand s8s go for around
that rate. It simply didn't make sense to repair it and sell it, or even to
repair it at all really.

I ended up purchasing a second hand Pixel XL (1st version) for $180. It has
lasted me incredibly well, and I've had hardly any problems. The phone is
durable, has a headphone jack, and a fantastic camera.

It seems that most phone hardware now has reached the point of being more than
good enough. The only real bottle neck for many devices is software. My
Samsung phones, with their bloated skins, always seemed to age quite quickly.
When the software experience is finely tuned and bloat removed, then phones
seem to last indefinitely.

------
TheLuddite
Maybe they should offer more variety in design, usability, features and
colours?

There are no small new smartphones, there are no QWERTY phones, soon there
will be no phones with headphone jacks...I'd love to have a QWERTY for
business + small phone with nice camera and durable battery for travel combo.

~~~
nippoo
The Blackberry KEY2 sounds like exactly what you’re looking for!

------
honkycat
They don't offer any new features that are desirable.

The voice assistants are a flop, not nearly good enogh. I miss my headphone
jack a little. I wish I could get a blackberry style physical keyboard.

As much as the iPhone vs Android debate continues to rage, they basically do
the same things.

------
Domark
Cycles go up and down. Good luck trying to prevent that. Best to plan for
downturns and upturns.

------
buboard
TBH i m surprised it lasted that long. The diminishing returns started long
time ago, and practically it is the OS upgrades slowing down old phones, and
drained batteries that drive the upgrades. Apart from the tech crowd, ppl
don't care if their phone makes marginally better photos , as long as it makes
them good enough to post to facebook. Same thing with laptops. I ve been
wanting to give myself a new thinkpad as christmas gift , but i just couldnt
justify upgrading from an i7-5600 .

Which means, a lot of people are setting aside money that they would spend for
their yearly phone upgrade, for the next seductive product. This could be a
good opportunity for novel stuff.

------
odiroot
I'm not surprised.

Until I'm gonna a get a new model that is compact and has a headphone jack,
fingerprint reader and SD card slot I'm not planning to ever change my device.

The whole market went crazy in completely opposite direction than what the
consumers want.

~~~
sosborn
> The whole market went crazy in completely opposite direction than what the
> consumers want.

Did they? HN and other tech related comment boards are not representative of
the general market. The people happy about the direction the market has moved
aren't going to post threads about their satisfaction, they'll just gone on
with their day.

------
techsin101
Been using Nexus 5x. $210. It does everything. Plays all videos. Charges fast.

Id buy new phone if did one of the followings...

A) had a battery that lasted a month.

B) had free unlimited data.

C) can 3d scan objects

I'll not buy it if it has

A) NSA 2.0 Alexa or ok Google always turned on

B) reliance on Bluetooth. I've concerns about radiation effects.

C) battery lasts one day

~~~
JamesAdir
Can you explain the not buy (B)? You're not worried on radiation from the
device mobile network but from the bluetooth?

------
kobasa
Got a Xiaomi Redmi Note 5 a few months ago for around $180 and couldn't be
happier. Big screen, crazy battery that lasts 2 days on heavy use, fingerprint
unlock, fast and quite sleek look. I've even dropped it quite a bit (not
cover, no screen protector) and not a scratch on the screen.

What do people actually get for getting something at 5x the price? Notchless
design, maybe better camera, and can't really think of anything else.

Phones IMO are transitioning from a functional item to a status item (maybe
similar to watches). At least that's the angle I'd be taking if I was a high
end phone manufacturer...

------
JTbane
Call me a conspiracy theorist, but is this the reason for the huge push
towards non-user-servicable phones?

My phone (LG V20) is one of the last made with an easily removable battery.

------
robin_reala
I’d love to update my 2012 MacBook Air as it is getting a little slow on some
of the scripts I’d like to run. Unfortunately the 2018 MacBook Air is only
1/3rd faster for CPU (it dropped a power category), so there’s little point
just yet. Maybe Apple will use their own CPUs in the near future which should
give a nice boost, but for the time being I’ve just been hand-optimising the
scripts instead.

~~~
itg
I had the same issue, but decided I'm not waiting on Apple, since the last few
years have been a complete disappointment. Went with a dell xps and pretty
happy with it. In fact, I've found myself moving away from Apple's ecosystem
and once my iphone 6s needs to be replaced, I will probably move over android
and be done with apple once and for all.

------
irrational
My company pays for my phone. I can upgrade every 18 months. My latest upgrade
date has come and gone, but I haven't bothered to do it since my current phone
(iPhone 7 plus) still works as well as it did the first day I got it. The only
reason I can foresee getting a new phone is if next year's iPhone includes a
headphone jack. Now that would be an improvement worth getting.

~~~
heipei
Anecdotal, but I'm in the same position when it comes to my laptop update. I'm
eligible to update my corporate MacBook every two years, but so far I'm still
sticking with my 5-year-old MacBook Pro Retina (13") because none of the
current options provide a clear benefit for me and the downside is potentially
huge (no native Linux, unreliable keyboard, dongle-life). As long as the
battery doesn't die on me I'll keep using this thing.

~~~
hliyan
Similar anecdote: still sticking to my 3 year old MacBook Pro despite being
offered the new one because newer "innovations" actually subtract from my
experience: no physical function keys or escape key, no regular USB or HDMI,
insufficient haptic feedback from keyboard etc.

------
rawoke083600
Yup my latest upgrade from a SAMSUNG S5 (Great phone) was a ~$200 Xiaomi Redmi
5 Plus. Which i plan to keep for another 5 years or so.

~~~
djuralfc
I'm looking for a new phone, since I still use 5s, and I'm thinking of
switching to Android. Xiaomi really caught my eye, good specs for great price.
What's your experience been with it so far?

~~~
nisa
Not the op I but got a Xiaomi Mi A2 Lite for ~180€ (64GB/4GB RAM) after my 4
years old Moto G had strange issues with the battery that even replacing the
battery didn't solve:

Could not be happier. Android One get's monthly updates from Google for the
next 3 years, Feature Updates for 2 years. Clean and stable experience. I've
read there are better cameras out there, however it's way better than the Moto
G. Build quality is fine for me. I hope it will last 5 years.

------
ohiovr
The Original telephone company bell telephone, didn’t sell phones they rented
them. Wiki says it was crucial to their survival in the early days. Not saying
I want to lease my phone but it seems a lot of people are willing to lease
cars and shop at rent to own stores. Include service as an mvno and might be
viable as a business.

------
Ibethewalrus
Agreed, bought mine 2 years ago, top of the line, extended warranty, etc.
instead I’ve been thinking about replacing my iPad...

------
renjimen
Well this is great news for the environment!

------
mentos
I could use a windows phone that could Remote Desktop into my PC and be an
extension of my PC experience. Could probably give me a mini tablet sized
screen, just enough to fit in my jeans pocket but large enough to not require
a new UI operating system, just a tweak to make icons and fonts larger.

------
Tsubasachan
Not surprising at all. The same happened to PCs and laptops. At some point its
good enough, only gamers need the latest Intel processor or nvidia GPU. So
people stopped buying new computers until the old one broke.

------
Lev1a
Bought a Moto G4 in 2016, cracked the screen that early 2017, use it despite
worsening screen burn-in. Finally decided to get a new phone (Motorola One),
which is scheduled to arrive tomorrow. Will probably use that _at least_ three
years as well.

I always wondered why I would buy an expensive "flagship" phone other than
showing off? A "mid-range" one is entirely enough...

\- good camera for the few occasions I use that \- Watching videos/streaming
\- Looking up stuff while on-the-go (when a laptop/tablet isn't available) \-
listening to music on inexpensive "conventional" headphones (F wireless
headphones) which I can get new for cheap at almost any supermarket \- If I
wanted to I could use the dual-SIM-capability that both my current and my new
phone have

------
noobiemcfoob
Which they'll do until software picks up the slack and demonstrates a real
need for advancement or integration of new features. Phones are so
underutilized today it is painful.

------
Havoc
Well Apple's pricing has increased dramatically while the devices haven't
really gained any new game changer innovation.

Thought I'd get a iphone X to replace my 7 but meh

~~~
tempodox
They did add Dongle Hell though, to an extent as yet unseen in the Appleverse.

------
rajacombinator
So fewer incremental spec improvements, plus major incremental price increases
and major UX regressions is a losing recipe. Who woulda thunk it!

------
jgalt212
I think 5G will cause a big bump if data plans are cheap enough to drop your
home internet plan and just hotspot to your phone.

~~~
Jaruzel
I can barely get full speed 4G as I travel around the UK. Unless 5G is full-
speed everywhere out of the gate, I can't see the point in upgrading just yet.

~~~
Lev1a
Since 5G reportedly has a rather small range, the cities/countryside probably
would have to be littered with "hotspots"/"towers".

~~~
Jaruzel
I saw a thing, can't remember where, that some telecos are planning on turning
'manhole' covers into antennas and running the cables through sewers.

------
tanilama
iPhone is getting pricer with no good reason besides greed. It is time to tell
Tim Cook enough is enough

~~~
matwood
> iPhone is getting pricer with no good reason besides greed.

Except margins have remained the same. So while the iPhone prices have
increased Apple is not making more money (given the increase in service
revenue which is high margin it could be argued Apple is making even less
margin on iPhones now). If there is any argument it is that Apple got too far
out over their skis on things like the t2 chip and A12x.

~~~
tanilama
One simple fact is that when margin remains, and the price goes up, Apple's
absolute revenue also goes up. They are charging more money from their user.

------
skilled
Oh no! Now you're giving companies the green light to produce shittier
products so they need to be replaced sooner!

I hope this marks the end of an era where people feel compelled to buy the
'latest and greatest' just because it's going to make them stand out in front
of their _friends_.

