
Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy - onetimemanytime
https://news.usni.org/2020/09/01/pentagon-report-china-now-has-worlds-largest-navy-as-beijing-expands-military-influence
======
Leary
The new missile gap [1]

[1][https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missile_gap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missile_gap)

I thought Obama already refuted this in 2012[2]

[2][https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GK3ORgw-
h_4](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GK3ORgw-h_4)

~~~
manquer
If you mean that vastly over estimated potential and politics from the Kennedy
era, to keep increasing / justify spends on difference, yes I guess.

U.S. navy has more aircraft carriers than rest of the world _combined_. I
don't see how any objective sense metric how China is even close to "largest"
Navy. Sure if you count every boat/warship each navy has they might be larger.
Just like Iraq had the largest army just by number of soldiers.

------
roenxi
This is probably just the US Navy making an indirect play for a bigger budget.
The Chinese navy and US navy are not comparable.

But there is a real change afoot, it seems likely that the Chinese will master
making battleships if they put their mind to it. It seems likely they have the
industrial supply chains to sustain a real military build-up if they want to.
Their manufacturing capacity is a very real thing and they're are no shortage
of brilliant, well educated and respectable Chinese engineers, scientists and
workers.

It is notable that they probably have cutting edge capabilities in nuclear
engineering, software engineering and manufacturing engineering. They
definitely know how to build drones better than everyone else. Hopefully the
future of warfare doesn't involve drones.

~~~
eunos
They already have a sufficient mastery in making surface fleet, mainly because
they also have a robust and massive civilian shipbuilding industry (neck-to-
neck with South Korea). Their next target probably is to master making
submarine and nuclear propulsion.

What I am looking forward is that assuming Chinese battery maker managed to
lead the world both in research and manufacturing because massive Chinese
Electric Vehicle growth, will it helps Chinese's submarine and drone
development?

~~~
quantaum_dot
China already has nuclear powered submarines

~~~
eunos
I'm thinking of raising the quality so that their next gen submarine will be
on par with Russian submarine or even American.

------
camillomiller
China Military spending 2019: $261 billion, or 1.9% GDP

US Military spending in 2019: $732 billion, or 3.4% GDP

China leapfrogged the U.S. by spending a little less than one third of what
the US squandered. Just let that sink in.

Oh and you know what China really is spending its money on, instead of
militarized local police forces? Research.

China R&D spending in 2018: 4.11% of GDP.

U.S. R&D spending in 2016 and max ever spent: 2.7% GDP

~~~
RachelF
China spends a lot in the US, too. Raytheon, Lockheed Martin and Boeing all
sell lots to the PLA.

We are arming our enemies.

~~~
shajznnckfke
I’m not sure they really count as enemies when we are so economically
integrated. It’s more like the nations are two bickering heads on a Cerberus.

------
lazyeye
I wonder how much of the hundreds millions (billions?) of dollars China was
able to save due its status as a "developing economy" contributed to its
massive military buildup. Or for that matter, that high priority for all
developing economies, putting a lander on the moon.
[https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-
economy/article/3004873/c...](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-
economy/article/3004873/china-refuses-give-developing-country-status-wto-
despite-us)

~~~
Areading314
China surpassed the US in GDP normalized to PPP in 2014, which is the
statistic that captures the power of their economy to manufacture and employ
military force. Given current trends, it is inevitable that China's military
will surpass the US's military power based on their economic prowess and
manufacturing capability.

~~~
rich_sasha
There was a strongly held belief that Japan will dwarf the US at one point
too. And true, Japan has massively developed but is nowhere near a superpower.

Also, IIRC the EU as a block has a bigger GDP than the US by some margin, and
yet isn’t a “joint superpower”.

Money is a necessary, but not sufficient condition.

~~~
mytailorisrich
Japan could never have dwarfed the US. Germany could never have dwarfed the
US.

Barring a catastrophe in the US, you need to look at the numbers: Japan is
quite small, most of it land is mountains, it has barely any natural
resources, its population is about a third of the US's. There was some
hysteria in the 80s but factually with such numbers Japan could never have
surpassed the US.

In addition to that, because of WWII Japan is basically satellite state of the
US, which means it cannot do as it pleases militarily (and even politically).

On the other hand, China is larger than the continental US, has plenty of
natural resources, and has a population 4x that of the US. It is also, of
course, not subjected to US domination.

The role are reversed and, as China develops, the numbers indicates that China
essentially _will_ dwarf the US.

This is really what has dawned on the American government and what explains
their actions. They're not panicking yet but they are certainly alarmed (Japan
never alarmed anyone in the D.C area since 1945).

Even the EU makes the US uneasy because, again, they know that the EU can be
bigger than they are.

------
dwd
Number of warships is meaningless, given the US probably doesn't even bother
including patrol boats in the count.

Gross tonnage or number of capital ships over a specific tonnage would be a
better comparison.

~~~
raxxorrax
True, but I doubt that is a good measure either. Production and logistical
capabilities of missiles is probably more important. Large ships like carriers
are very vulnerable and heavy pieces of metal to direct missile attacks or
modern subs.

~~~
dwd
"My logisticians are a humorless lot - they know if my campaign fails, they
are the first ones I will slay." attributed to Alexander the Great

------
lakis
Although the China Navy has more ships, the USA navy is the biggest by tonnage
by a huge margin [https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/links-
navy.htm](https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/links-navy.htm) USA
6.2m tons China 2.1m tons Russia 1.9m tons UK 0.7m tons India 0.5m tons .....

To put into perspective, according to
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Navy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Navy)
"[The USN] is larger than the next 13 navies combined, which includes 11 U.S.
allies or partner nations"

------
DyslexicAtheist
whether this navy is effective in a theater of war _today_ is a good question.
They tend to be sub-optimal in a time dominated by PMC's and asymmetric
warfare. Having a highly complex, maintenance-intensive fleet is nice for show
and maybe to scare the odd South East Asian country into submission during
disputes in the South China Sea. But for it to be effective it needs to be
exercised in real life (kinetic) conditions. I think the PRC would get more
bang for their buck by sending their troops to Africa (as they already do[1])
for them to get battle experience.

[1] [https://defaakto.com/2020/07/18/chinas-other-presence-in-
afr...](https://defaakto.com/2020/07/18/chinas-other-presence-in-africa/)

edit: I personally don't support any of their current & future war mongering
and naval ambitions. The right foreign policy for the US would be maximum
pressure and if they don't play by Western rules we should go to war with them
immediately (we should have done so the moment they said Taiwan belongs to the
PLC or when the news of the Uyghurs broke). Not doing so means we're only
postponing this for a later point (when they are even stronger and when the
damage will be even bigger on both sides).

~~~
timwaagh
China already went to war with the us over korea. not unsuccesfully and in
times when China wasn't considered a threat. I'd say the US needs to treat the
prospect of war with China with extreme caution. Why not shore up your own
alliances first before attempting to undertake such a massive project?

~~~
DyslexicAtheist
yes timing right now would be terrible. if those alliances would be solid
however then maybe there would be less reason to escalate things (because soft
power and sanctions would be more effective?).

~~~
timwaagh
hopefully yes

------
NiceWayToDoIT
US has 11 aircraft carriers China only 2, US spends aprox. 3 times more money
on military, is this announcement of a new military race?

------
Lio
Instead of endlessly rehashing Blade Runner and ripping off Neuromancer, it
would be nice to see film and TV execs produce something about the what the
future world will look like when it’s dominated by the Chinese Communist
Party.

They won’t though because the Chinese Communist Party is fucking scary and
doesn’t take to being commented on.

All those little plastic widgets and cheap clothes we import are paying for
this navy.

~~~
Animats
China's plans aren't a big secret. There's Made In China 2025.[1] The 14th
Five Year Plan is being drafted now. Unlike the USSR, China was reasonably
successful in meeting the goals of the 13 Five Year Plans so far, with the
notable exception of the Great Leap Forward fiasco of the 1960s.

The Made In China 2025 plan focuses on pharmaceutical, automotive, aerospace,
semiconductor, IT and robotics manufacturing. The goal is to have a state of
the art position in all those fields by 2025.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Made_in_China_2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Made_in_China_2025)

~~~
ArkVark
China also has a higher average IQ than much of the rest of the world: 104, vs
98 for the USA:

[https://www.worlddata.info/iq-by-country.php](https://www.worlddata.info/iq-
by-country.php)

China is also pursuing eugenic strategies with the one-child policy, and
controlled migration into cities (which encourages assortative mating). The
Fertility Rate of 1.6 is reasonable.

By contrast many Western countries are pursuing dysgenic strategies through
the provision of mass-welfare, and the intake of migrants from lower-IQ
countries.

China just needs to sit back for 30-50 years and wait for these trends to play
out, if it has the patience. We're already seeing the first reports of IQ
declines:

[https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-
dropping-...](https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-
many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576)

~~~
raxxorrax
Yes, you can see it in the comments sections on the internet.

If not using eugenic strategies means loosing some war, I think I would opt
for defeat and welcome our new Chinese overlords.

------
thetechimist
I don’t know how these things wind up on Hacker News, but I oddly appreciate
the break from things like “Use Vim to wash your clothes”.

1\. There are websites to foster fears of warmongering (or to assure oneself
that Red Dawn can never happen) such as Global Firepower. Here is the USA vs
China. When I’m feeling unpatriotic, it can be fun to play with this website
and imagine the torment we could cause our enemies, despite us not being able
to regulate ride-sharing companies.

2\. I’m not sure why military expenditures should matter so starkly. If I buy
a 10 laser cannons for $1 million, and you spend $50 million on 5 million
rifles, I might still beat you with my Stormtrooper weapon. Point is, it
matters more on what you’re buying and building - and how you manage projects
- than raw costs.

3\. This article is not really new. The NY Times made a similar clickbait
headline a few years back. The Brookings Institute rebutted it then.

4\. The IQ arguments are specious. If IQ won wars, we wouldn’t have any. Also,
I’ll take Patton, Lincoln, and Washington over their adversaries of the time,
despite their adversaries being noted for their intellect. Lastly, what’s IQ
got to do with anything in regards to China, a country that doesn’t reward
innovative free enterprise. Their best and brightest aren’t at liberty to try
their hand in the marketplace of ideas, but are forced to build what the Party
says must be built. And those are just the ones that get found out. I imagine
the truly bright minds of China stay in academia, escape, or humbly work the
rice fields and keep their head down. I would. Why risk notoriety?

1\. [https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-
detail....](https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-
detail.asp?form=form&country1=united-states-of-
america&country2=china&Submit=COMPARE)

2\. [https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-
chaos/2018/09/10/w...](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-
chaos/2018/09/10/why-china-isnt-ahead-of-the-us-navy-even-with-more-ships/)

