
Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude - prostoalex
https://qz.com/1480192/monarch-populations-in-the-us-west-are-down-86-this-year/
======
cryptonector
This seems like part of the insect apocalypse story, and bee colony collapse
disorder. All probably caused by overuse of insecticides.

Note that if we don't find a way to correct this, it can be catastrophic on a
timescale that makes the most alarmist climate change predictions seem like
nothing. There must be some percentage of normal insect population density
below which population of frogs and birds and what not will fall even farther,
with knock-on impact elsewhere.

One wonders how much of a boy-who-cried-wolf effect we might be seeing.
Alarmism gets tiresome, so it's important to ring the alarm about the most
urgent problems first. The insect apocalypse -if it is real, which I've a
feeling it very much is- is probably a problem we can ameliorate quickly once
we decide to, and it will worsen quickly if we don't. But climate change gets
all the attention and sucks the oxygen out of the room.

~~~
whyenot
> All probably caused by overuse of insecticides.

I am not aware of any scientific publication showing a causal link. Let's be a
little careful about this. By increasing crop yields and reducing deaths from
insect borne diseases, insecticides have greatly reduced human suffering over
the past century.

It's possible that insecticides are the cause, and if so, something has to be
done, but such decisions need to be based on facts, on science, NOT on
superstition and storytelling.

~~~
ip26
Ironclad facts, science, studies, & research are great. However, if we are
facing imminent collapse of pollinator populations (which would lead to a
_lot_ of human suffering) the precautionary principal starts to look
interesting.

In other words, if we run the risk of population collapse within ten years,
and population collapse will lead to crop failure and mass starvation & death,
but rigorous studies on cause will take fifteen years to complete... do we
wait for them to finish?

~~~
maxerickson
For the most part, our calorie crops do not rely on insects.

For example, corn is wind pollinated and wheat, soy, rice and potatoes are
self pollinating.

Having reduced access to things like almonds and apples is gonna suck, but
even with 0 insects it's still going to be reduced access, as hand pollination
is quite a fast process.

~~~
NeedMoreTea
I wonder how easy, or affordable, it will be to maintain a balanced diet if
all insect pollinated fruit and veg becomes unavailable. Quite apart from the
tendency of people to like tasty and varied food over dull but sufficient
intake.

More importantly I wonder what unforeseen unintended consequences will arise
from disassembling food chains, after we've lost those species, and it's too
late.

~~~
maxerickson
I'm not dismissing the consequences of mass insect die off, I'm dismissing
_mass starvation_ as one of them. I guess expecting people to link "calorie
crops" to "mass starvation" is high.

------
trgn
I planted milkweed in my front yard. These plants don't come cheap, between
10-20$ at the nursery for a young plant. I never was able to grow them from
seed. Anyways, the plants did attract a few monarchs late summer/early fall. I
counted two. I planted nine total.

I got a code violation warning last month for not mowing my front yard and
having overgrown "landscape weeds".

~~~
stinos
_I got a code violation warning last month for not mowing my front yard and
having overgrown "landscape weeds"_

This is ... fascinating for me. For a number of reasons. Like, it's the exact
opposite of what I do with my 'lawn' and makes me feel naive and like I've
been living under a rock for not realizing there are places where people
actually get warnings for this. Can you elaborate in what kind of place you
live, which country? What are the reasons behind such code? Do you think
whomever gave you that warning would listen to sientific arguments of why such
code is pretty much the opposite of what would be appropriate when it comes to
nature?

~~~
zcid
On top of what jazzyjackson said, a lot of people correlate well-manicured
lawns with property value. For instance, quite a few place won't allow
vegetable gardens in the front yard. It gives an impression of poverty. Which
makes me wander what is the best word for modern suburban aesthetic.
Sterility?

~~~
village-idiot
Blight.

------
todopoderoso
If you want to see where the Monarch butterflies migrate to in the winter and
what such a thing looks like, there's a great reserve near the city of
Angangueo, Mexico
([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angangueo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angangueo)).
3.5hr bus ride from Mexico City.

You get up in the morning and take a taxi higher into the mountains to the
reserve, getting out and walking further up the mountain's roped off trail.

The trail terminates into a small, flat observation area. And if you go early
enough, you might wonder where the hell all the butterflies are. But on closer
inspection of the tall trees around you, you'll notice most of what you
thought were leaves and bark are really clumps and clumps of sleeping (and
half-frozen?) butterflies.

Once the sun comes out, these masses of butterflies seem to wake up and
stretch their wings, warming them up before descending the mountain in one
never-ending flock, landing in a grassy clearing (about 50m back down the
trail) to drink from a stream and frolic in the sun. Butterflies will be
everywhere, swooping past you in incredible numbers or landing on you --
especially if you're wearing bright colors.

Cool experience, charming little town, and beautiful landscape. As things
become more dire for these little guys, might be worth a visit.

I thought Angangueo would've been warm since it's a migratory winter
destination, but it's super cold and colder than most of the climates the
butterflies abandoned in the north. The place we stayed at had no hot water or
fireplace. But a little bit of adversity, like seeing your own breath while
trying to fall asleep, makes a travel experience a little richer upon
recollection. :)

~~~
klenwell
One of the most magical experiences I've had in my life was a morning out
surfing alone in Huntington Beach years ago. It was a weekday in... I don't
remember the time of year. October? May? When do they usually end up in
Southern California?[0] The details are in a journal or lost text file
somewhere.

It was a beautiful Southern California morning. Clear skies, a breath of
offshores, clean inconsistent chest-high waves. I was sitting outside waiting
for the next wave. And all of the sudden a few Monarch butterflies flew past
me. And they were followed by a few more. And more after that.

A steady stream of orange and black butterflies fluttering past me. Coming in
OFF the ocean towards shore. Was it 5 minutes? 15 minutes? An hour? The
procession ended. I remember spotting the butterflies here and there the rest
of the day, even many miles inland.

C-beams glittering in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate. Moments that will be
lost to those who follow us.

[0] [https://www.tripsavvy.com/monarch-butterflies-in-
california-...](https://www.tripsavvy.com/monarch-butterflies-in-
california-1474048)

~~~
sethammons
I grew up in the mountains near there (near Big Bear). I used to love the
monarchs flying through our canyon every year. I've not seen them in what
feels like a decade.

------
rapnie
Tangential: helping insects.

I could obtain free wildflower seeds from a Dutch foundation aiming to protect
the bees, and last Spring I did some 'guerilla sowing' on bare patches of land
waiting for new building construction.

Big success. The nutrition-poor soil apparently was ideal, and in places dense
flower beds appeared. It gave me _huge_ satisfaction to not only see bees and
other insects, but tourists and inhabitants making photographs, and children
shouting excitingly "Look at all these flowers, mom!". A true win-win for
humans and bees.

Would be really easy for the municipality to adopt this as a policy and sow
all these temporary spots with flowers.

~~~
therealdrag0
Wow. That's delightful. I'm gonna take note of this! Thanks for sharing.

------
bbojan
As I believe that Earth is the only life-bearing planet in our galaxy, if not
the whole Universe, I'm extremely saddened with news like this of a near-
extinction of yet another fascinating species.

My only hope is that humanity will spread among the stars, dispersing what
species remain to billions of new worlds, and that this might be our
redemption for the unspeakable crimes we have committed against life...

~~~
culot
If there are other planets with life on them then humanity could be more like
a plague, choking out who knows how many ecosysyems on however many planets,
much in the sane manner we've done here.

If humans cannot develop a healthy balance on this planet - which is unlikely,
as drastic population and industrial reduction would be necessary and right
quick - then we do not deserve to escape this planet. Humanity spreading to
other planets at this point would be akin to a disease spreading.

------
canada_dry
When I was a kid it was normal to see a few dead monarchs in the grill of
dad's car. So was having a dozen house flys indoors.

Nowadays I never see a monarch and I can leave the windows of the house open
all day and not see a fly or any bugs for that matter.

~~~
pulisse
Entomologists sometimes talk of the "windscreen phenomenon": peoples' sense
that inspect splatter on windshields used to be a daily occurrence, but isn't
any more.

------
PavlovsCat
Down an order of magnitude... from last year!

> Surveyors at 97 sites found only 20,456 monarchs compared to 148,000 at the
> same sites last year, an 86% decline.

I have no words..

------
mixmastamyk
Any news about the pesticides killing off bees and butterflies? Have any been
banned yet?

~~~
greeneggs
The main neonicotinoids were banned in the EU in 2018. (Partial restrictions
were put in place in 2013.) [1] In the US, there's been basically no action.
(The Fish and Wildlife Service has reversed an Obama-era ban on their use in
wildlife refuges.)

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neonicotinoid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neonicotinoid)

------
nrjames
My father, who lives on the NC coast, has monarch caterpillars all over his
milkweed right now. It’s very late for them to be there. Let’s hope they make
it before the weather gets too cold!

~~~
cityofdelusion
I live in the migration path in Texas and we cut our milkweed to the ground in
mid fall after the first cold front. It supposedly discourages monarchs from
overwintering so they keep migrating.

------
code_duck
This is about in line with the intelligence with which I see people pursuing
their interactions with the natural world around us.

“A bare patch of dirt?? Let’s pay someone to spray it with Round-Up! On all of
our 480 locations”

~~~
paulcole
It’s no dumber than let’s pay someone to dig up rare rocks, ship them halfway
around the world, turn them into iPhones, and ship them back. Then let’s do
that nonstop for 10 years and counting.

~~~
code_duck
Killing weeds with poison serves only a questionable aesthetic purpose.

------
DuskStar
This is one of the most obviously not proofread articles I've seen in a while,
particularly among ones that made it to HN.

For example:

> a 2017 modeling paper in Biological Conservation (pdf) found that 30,000
> butterflies adult butterflies are probably the smallest viable population.

"butterflies" is repeated.

> Its population has fallen by 97% since the 1980s, and is at just 99.5% of
> its original abundance.

If Monarch populations were at 99.5% of their original abundance, we'd be
celebrating or heavily investigating why they haven't been more adversely
affected by human activity. They almost certainly mean 0.5%.

Now the first might be a "minor" error, but it's still something obvious
enough to be caught on a scan. The second? That's a massive factual error.
Seriously, who publishes stuff like this?

------
selimthegrim
"Its population has fallen by 97% since the 1980s, and is at just 99.5% of its
original abundance."

I assume they mean 0.5%?

------
jenks
M O N S A N T O.

Please take a few moment to research the once ammunition production companies
history, and current power in the world farming industry.

[https://www.organicconsumers.org/campaigns/millions-
against-...](https://www.organicconsumers.org/campaigns/millions-against-
monsanto)

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAZmHIiN8VI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAZmHIiN8VI)

It's not ironic that the company which had an instrumental impact on creating
the polonium-based initiators in atomic bombs during the Manhattan Project
still continues creating world-ending technologies today.

------
monetus
If the pesticides were banned, how fast would their population be replenished?
Or do they persist, akin to CFCs?

~~~
lurquer
>This year’s steep drop is probably due to extreme weather, at least partly
resulting from climate change. Late rainstorms in March, as well as an
intense, extended wildfire season across California, have battered the
species. The state’s forests have yet to recover from the record-breaking
drought stretching from 2011 to 2017.

~~~
monetus
I read the article; I was just assuming that pesticide use is only thing we
are likely to affect in the near future. Habitat reclamation seems unlikely?
I'm relatively clueless in this regard and was just inviting comment.

------
rgovostes
South of the Bay Area in Santa Cruz is Natural Bridges State Beach, through
which monarchs allegedly migrate. I was around that area for around two years
and I can't remember ever seeing one.

~~~
samcheng
They were there a couple of weeks ago, and should be there now (they winter in
the eucalyptus grove). Thousands of them.

------
zeruch
I was at Natural Bridges a few weeks back, which is supposed to be a haven for
monarchs...there were almost no clusters there (maybe 3, when there should be
dozens or more at a minimum).

------
lurquer
I'm no statistician, but the general trend seems to be upward for the last ten
years. [https://www.westernmonarchcount.org/wp-
content/uploads/2018/...](https://www.westernmonarchcount.org/wp-
content/uploads/2018/02/WMTC-1997-2017-graph.png)

Indeed, but for some out-of-whack numbers in 1997, the data looks fairly non-
hysteria-inducing. I wonder if anything was happening in the counties where
the count took place this year that might have affected the 'volunteer citizen
scientist' participation? Hmm... I seem to remember something... what was it?
Can't put my finger on it... I guess I'll just assume the world is ending and
all insects are disappearing.

~~~
a_bonobo
The general trend that goes upward in your graph isn't the number of
butterflies, but the number of 'sites monitored', i.e., places where they
searched for butterflies.

In the time that monitored sites went from ~400,000 to ~1,400,000 the number
of reported butterflies stayed roughly the same (~200,000), which should be
grave cause for concern. The number of butterflies should be a linear
correlation with the number of sites (unless all sites are chosen completely
badly (like the inside of a factory), which is highly unlikely).

Then again, maybe 1997, the first year with 1,200,000 butterflies in ~500,000
sites was a strong outlier, and the numbers past 1999 are the 'reality' which
is always hang 200,000. We'd need a time machine to check, or find old data,
or find a way to count butterflies in the past (I guess they don't preserve
well?)

~~~
lurquer
>The general trend that goes upward in your graph isn't the number of
butterflies, but the number of 'sites monitored', i.e., places where they
searched for butterflies.

With all due respect, I can read a graph. I was referring to the total amount
of butterflies. There is no data on the site to permit one to draw any
correlation between the number of monitoring sites and the number of
butterflies. We could add 10,000 additional monitoring sites in Antarctica and
it would tell us nothing. There is no data to give any indication that ANYONE
even was reporting at any particular site or how many were reporting.

In short, the organization's data is useless... at least the data easily
available on their site. And, it's certainly insufficient to justify the
handwringing in some of the comments.

~~~
akvadrako
The data doesn't matter — people are just looking for an excuse to say
"chemicals are bad" or "I'm against global warming".

~~~
lurquer
It's not "global warming" any more. It's "climate change."

I hope I live long enough -- and I suspect I will -- to see the 'issue' become
the damaging effects of 'climate stagnation'.

I bet within a few decades you'll read things like this: "The insects on this
planet require a changing climate! The average temperatures haven't moved for
decades! We're in a deadly stagnant cycle caused by [insert nuclear, fossil
fuels, positronic brain emissions, or whatever is 'taboo' 50 years hence].
We're all going to die!"

------
calebm
I stopped using chemical weed killer on my yard a couple years ago, and I have
noticed more monarchs this summer than in the past few years combined.

------
avip
Insects are packing their things and getting ready to depart.

------
crispinb
All our evolved natural systems are collapsing, and are being replaced by
crude early-stage technological ones. "Fighting" each as a separate policy
issue is a continuation of the fluffy-minded & neurotic economic/business
attitude which cannot cope with facing physical reality.

We're almost certainly stuffed. This was probably always inevitable, because
the naked ape likely lacks whatever capacities might be needed to operate at
planetary scale. But we'll never know, because we refused to even give the
alternatives a try. Well, too late now.

~~~
speedplane
Can I take the cynical extreme long term view for a second?

No matter how much we destroy our planet, it's damage will be a blink of an
eye in cosmological terms. Even if we nearly exterminate all other species,
plenty of genetic material will survive by dumb chance alone, and in a few
million years there will be a whole other ecosystem/society to worry about.

Earth doesn't care about biodiversity, beauty, or longevity, even if we mess
it up, it'll be able to recover in its lifetime.

~~~
Espressosaurus
It's a long view, sure, but it's one that doesn't include humans. Most people
would like humans to be around.

The conditions under which we live won't be in play if the fisheries all
collapse and the clathrate gun fires.

~~~
speedplane
People want people around. People want endangered species around. However,
civilization has been around for roughly 20,000 years, and modern civilization
for roughly 100 years.

If earth was a person and we all lived on it's tummy, everything humans ever
existed would still be an eye-blick.

~~~
lotsofpulp
>If earth was a person and we all lived on it's tummy, everything humans ever
existed would still be an eye-blick.

This does not make any sense to me.

