
Is The Hot Hand Fallacy A Fallacy? - dmvaldman
https://rjlipton.wordpress.com/2015/10/12/is-the-hot-hand-fallacy-a-fallacy/
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dclowd9901
Well timed, this article. I just got back from a trip to Vegas. I kno
intrinsically that my chances of winning from one deal to another at a
blackjack table are equal (card counting notwithstanding). And yet I can't
deny that there were times when I was "hot." Of course you'll occasionally win
a few times in a row, but it seemed to change with dealers and new shuffles.

About the only thing I could attribute it to was my own change of pace and
self awareness. If I was hot, I might hit out of confidence without second
guessing myself. Incidentally, this is what the dealer will also do, only they
do it under the guise of requirement.

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vessenes
It seems almost impossible to me that physical sports maneuvers like a golf
shot, basketball shot or baseball hits are truly random variables. In my own
(laughable) sports experiences, I am working to build muscle memory -- a good
move or bit of mechanics absolutely increases my likelihood of recreating that
move. And, as time drops, the correlation between my mechanics and that
'great' mechanics moment drops -- my body forgets, and that's where the
benefits of practice come in.

Blackjack though, maybe. I suppose it depends how on point you are with
playing the odds.

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austinjp
Neurologically, sports performance can be envisaged as a search for a target
in a space. If you are a beginner, then any training that takes you closer to
the target is beneficial. So eg a beginner learning tennis will benefit from
playing badminton, squash, etc.

However, as you become more expert then the risks are greater (your opponents
are better) and the margins are increasingly minimal. So your training has to
become incredibly specific. No more badminton if you want to be an excellent
tennis player.

Also, for even the world's finest sports players, performance degrades just
minutes after practice or competition. This is the purpose of warming up : to
fine-tune the nervous system, to bring your performance in the search space as
close as possible to the target.

Human systems are chaotic, so performance is subject to fluctuation from even
the tiniest perturbations. This is why even the finest sports player cannot
expect 100% reliable performance every single time.

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gfunk911
A study found there is a mild hot hand effect in the NBA, but players who've
made several shots in a row and guarded more closely by the defense, negating
the effect. As n example, If a player hits 2 50% shots in a row, his next shot
will be a 45% shot, which he will hit at a 47% clip

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vessenes
I think the point of the article is that if you use the naive selection
criteria, anything over 41-43% on a 50% random chance is actually 'hot'. So
it's probably worth reviewing that study's selection criteria to see if in
fact there's a larger hot hand factor than you might think at first glance.

The second point the article makes is that it's very likely the selection
criteria in your NBA study is not precisely defined enough to determine the
baseline percentage.

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cLeEOGPw
The fallacy here is in the definition of random.

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mannykannot
Here is Stephen Jay Gould on Joe DiMaggio's great 1941 hitting streak:
[http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/1988/aug/18/the-
str...](http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/1988/aug/18/the-streak-of-
streaks/)

