
Unrealised Potential - mooreds
https://www.brettmacfarlane.com/blog/2019/8/10/19
======
edw
"Just as most smoking prevention advertising is proven to increase smoking
might many pro innovation programs prevent innovation?"

Back in the spring of 2007 I was dating a woman who worked for a mature
Silicon Valley tech company. She was excited to share news of a recently-
introduced program that she was certain I'd love. What was it? I asked. A
rotational development program. It would produce people like me, she said:
generalists, people who understood many aspects of the company's business and
could go on to lead it into the future.

My response to this news was sadness. Don't you know what's going to happen?
All of the High Achievers and Grade Grubbers and Brass Ring Grabbers are going
to hear about this program, and they're going to compete for this Shiny
Object, this Resume Enhancer, and all the people like me, the ones who quietly
follow their curiosity with a borderline sense of guilt and shame, who feel
like outcasts and weirdos for not fitting in, are never going to sign up for
the cutthroat competition. And the company will think it has done something
wonderful to promote innovation.

I remember the look on her face after I'd unloaded on this thing she was so
proud of. The relationship did not survive to see the first day of summer.

~~~
mikelyons
This rings to me much like the stage orange human tendency to take the beauty
of the natural world and commoditize and monetize it, destroying what made it
beautiful in the process.

(Spiral Dynamics stage orange)

~~~
edw
Thanks for the introduction to Spiral Dynamics; it's an interesting way of
thinking about how people think about the world. Of course, in the hands of
the sort of people who think rotational development programs are a boffo idea,
it is perfectly suited for misuse.

Spiral Dynamics isn't named in the following article, but I'm sure some
cheapened version of it is being used out in the wild by mostly-well-meaning
gurus and HR people:

[https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/17/style/personality-
tests-o...](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/17/style/personality-tests-
office.html)

Which further reminds me: In 2008-9, I told a fellow entrepreneur how I
thought about designing Half.com's UX, namely as an exercise in creating a
game, in that people don't like to plays games that they don't think are fair,
or know they're doomed to never win. (I used a former love's domination in
Monopoly, and our friends' hesitancy to play with her, as an example.) This
comment led the entrepreneur into an obsession with "gamification," to the
point that he took me to eat lunch with a leading gamification guru, IIRC at
the Second Avenue Deli.

Gamification, a precursor to everything written about by Nir Eyal in "Hooked,"
was the antithesis of what I cared about: not about making people _want_ to
play, but about making people feel like the _cannot help_ but play.

~~~
mikelyons
If you're curious about Spiral Dynamics, and its applications in Life and in
politics, this series is fantastic
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23aDNBvn_2g&list=PLWq2PmY0jh...](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23aDNBvn_2g&list=PLWq2PmY0jhcpz1T8_HCUrhuw0mRp1z7Aq)

if you just want to see where Trump and China are going, then this is a good
summary

[https://actualized.org/insights/the-big-picture-of-global-
po...](https://actualized.org/insights/the-big-picture-of-global-politics)

Note to moderation: I only post this to help this fellow, and promise to only
post it in this context where it's appropriate, open to feedback if this is
also outside the realm of acceptable behavior. :thumbs_up:

------
claudiulodro
> Why does so much ability stay trapped as ideas or creative thoughts, rather
> than graduate to launch and become innovations?

It is super difficult (in my opinion and in America) to go from employed
programmer to startup founder. Health insurance is tied to employers, and
employers have IP assignment and COI policies. These 2 things working together
heavily discourage people pursuing their own thing because it adds a ton of
overhead to the cost of striking out on your own.

~~~
makerofspoons
Long hours and the lack of (or discouragement of using) vacation time don't
help either.

------
zackmorris
I'll bite. This is pretty much all I think about anymore, so, after so many
years of doing it, the best answer I can come up with is that necessity has
been conflated with profitability.

So, if you look around you, you'll find that nearly all endeavors related to
sustenance have been saturated. It's difficult to earn a living as an
individual in food service, teaching, nursing, transportation, textiles, even
construction (when we include downturns in average pay and job security). Or
another way to say that is, if you work in a field that isn't scalable
(automatable), then your income will approach the incomes of your peers.

However, endeavors which are profitable are becoming less saturated. So
companies that do nothing related to sustenance are getting billion dollar
exits. These endeavors include things like: statistical models to predict what
users want so that relevant ads can be shown to them that lower their customer
acquisition cost. Or, disruptive technologies that give us what we already had
but with more convenience:

[https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/investing/upcoming-ipos-
to-w...](https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/investing/upcoming-ipos-to-watch-
in-2019/)

\---

Airbnb: Both?

Beyond Meat Inc. (BYND): Necessity

Chewy (CHWY): Profitability

CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD): Profitability

Fiverr International Ltd. (FVRR): Both?

Lyft (LYFT): Both?

Peloton (PTON): Both?

Pinterest (PINS): Profitability

Postmates: Both?

Robinhood: Profitability

Slack (WORK): Profitability

The RealReal (REAL): Profitability

The We Company (aka WeWork): Both?

Uber (UBER): Both?

Zoom (ZM): Profitability

\---

Profitability: 7

Necessity: 1

Both?: 7

Here I'm saying that companies that produce tangible goods or an income stream
for their users are necessity-based. Ones that increase efficiency or
disrupt/replace an existing industry are profitability-based. For this small
sample size, it looks like necessity and profitability are about 50/50.

But with ever-increasing wealth inequality, the necessity side is getting
squeezed hard. As the middle class shrinks, necessity wages become grouped
more strongly towards the poverty side. So if you're working out in the world
trying to make rent, you'll never be able to get ahead of the curve enough to
do your startup.

If you do happen to make it to the other side and become part of the top 10%,
you'll have so much money and influence at your disposal that no matter how
creative you think you are, you'll underperform against the other 9
entrepreneurs that never made it. Society's realized potential will be 1/10 of
what it could be. And that realized potential becomes smaller and smaller as
wealth inequality increases.

If we want to realize our potential, it starts with reducing the barriers to
entry. We need capital for people between the necessity and profitability
extremes. So banks either need to start making loans to entrepreneurs again
(something between angel investors at $10,000 and venture capitalists at $1
million), or we need something like universal basic income (UBI).

This is a macroeconomic argument I'm not seeing much. The microeconomic
arguments about discipline and pulling ourselves up by our bootstraps are all
around us. They self-evidently don't work, as reflected in the unrealized
potential of so much capital and technology eating the world, and so little
personal wealth (leisure time) available to the masses.

