
Schneier on Security: Cargo Security - stakent
http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2010/10/cargo_security.html
======
iwr
Per Schneier's point, focusing on "threat scenarios" is useless if you have a
diffuse threat and unlimited targets.

As an aside, try to look at the history of the definition of terrorism:
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Definition_of_terrorism> . It's quite difficult
to find an all-encompasing term that does not include the US or her allies.

------
andysinclair
I agree that you should fight terrorism using intelligence, but I don't agree
with this statement:

"If a passenger plane blows up, it affects a couple of hundred people"

What about the scenario where a cargo plane is blown up over a highly
populated area or the centre of a major city? I think he is forgetting that on
9-11 the planes were used as weapons, and the lives lost on the planes were a
fraction of the overall total on that tragic day.

~~~
Symmetry
If a cargo plane blows up over a highly populate area it will kill about a
dozen people (see example in blog comments). This isn't nothing, but its
pretty hard to get your bombs set to blow up at the exact right time.

As to 9/11, that was a hijacking rather than a bomb and an entirely different
attack vector.

~~~
rbanffy
> its pretty hard to get your bombs set to blow up at the exact right time.

You can use GPS tracking and a program running on the phone. With this setup,
you can guess when the plane will pass over a major city and blow it up
according to population density.

I would assume someone would already have sent the phones with their programs
to acquire more information on signal strength, cell towers and all the data
to make something like this work before attaching explosives to the devices.

Someone probably is right now going over other packages sent by similar
routes, possibly by associates of this guy and those who picked them up at the
destination. I am quite sure this was not his first attempt.

~~~
Symmetry
GPS won't work inside a metal shell, which is what cargo compartments on
airplanes are (passenger airplanes have windows).

~~~
rbanffy
Not sure about that (planes being radio-sealed). Planes are getting more and
more composite materials to save weight. One of the key features of the 787 is
the composite fuselage that I am not sure will effectively block GPS signals.
Also, many cargo planes are remissioned or dual-use passenger planes that
still have windows:

<http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/XMBDcG2dmr-Z1QoGBdXu2g>

If all else fails, some phones are coming with gyroscopes...

------
martingordon
I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but I do find it strange that this new
type of threat comes days after the BA chief complained about overly-strict US
security measures.

This response says, "See, we do need them! And we probably should add a few
more measures too!"

~~~
ergo98
It seems like you _are_ one for conspiracy theories to try to make that work.

The British airport guy complained about shoe checks and laptop scans. This
threat was about cargo shipped bombs. They are two entirely different things
with an minuscule Venn overlap ("having something to do with some sort of
transportation device...").

The "cargo shipped terrorism" was all the focus during the anthrax worries. It
isn't new.

------
btipling
The crazy thing about this is that this type of terrorism is completely
pointless. There are no demands, no hostages, no agenda, it's just let's blow
something up in America. At best someone is just trying to score some points
back home by having managed to kill some Americans, but are they really
terrifying anyone? Is there anything we could do to in terms of policy to end
this "threat"? If there was would we ever? The answers are no.

The only way to end terrorism is to bring education and prosperity to the
middle east, to all of them, not just the few already rich from oil money. To
give them something to do other than blow themselves up.

~~~
rbanffy
Not necessarily.

If they succeed blowing up enough cargo planes, this would create a non-
trivial economic pressure to deal with whatever demands they have. If they
manage to blow up one with debris falling on a big city, more points to them.

------
nhebb
_[this is a repeat of my post on his blog]_

From what I've read, the devices were wired to detonate via cell phone, and
some speculated that the devices were to be triggered when the flights were
over major cities. This raises three questions in my mind:

1\. Did the flight paths of these planes actually go over major cities? Or
just on the periphery?

2\. Will cell phone signals reach flight altitude?

3\. (Although Bruce advocates doing nothing) Would cell phone signal jammers
on cargo planes be a cheap deterrent in this case?

~~~
rbanffy
What if the device is rigged to explode when the phone loses signal?

~~~
Symmetry
Then it explodes when loaded into the cargo hold, in which case only the
loaders die and the terrorists could have done much better with just a bomb on
a street corner.

~~~
rbanffy
> the terrorists could have done much better with just a bomb on a street
> corner.

Not sure. Do you know how much money would it cost to replace the plane and
shut down the airport until officials make sure that was the only bomb?

Besides that, the loss of signal could start a countdown.

------
po
_Cargo that is loaded on to passenger planes should be subjected to the same
level of security as passenger luggage._

It should be more. It's more costly for a terrorist organization to put a bomb
on a plane they also have to ride on. You have to find, train and forfeit one
"martyr" per bomb.

After 9/11 I seem to remember something about not allowing people to put
luggage on a flight they weren't going to be on. As in, if you didn't show up
at the gate to get on, they would remove your luggage too. What happened to
that?

------
borism
I've heard report that attack was actually revealed by whistleblower from
Saudi Arabia. Good job unknown US and UK secret agencies for taking credit for
saving the World, again!

~~~
junkbit
British never discus sources or capabilities.

