
Show HN: Calculator of personal risk due to Covid-19 - mathdev
https://www.covidodds.com/
======
kwertzzz
Why are you sending the data (including medical conditions) to Facebook?

[https://www.facebook.com/v6.0/plugins/like.php?action=like&a...](https://www.facebook.com/v6.0/plugins/like.php?action=like&app_id=&channel=https%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter.php%3Fversion%3D46%23cb%3Df17d6a34f1f5aae%26domain%3Dwww.covidodds.com%26origin%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.covidodds.com%252Ff2adc5c9345f4d6%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=4&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.covidodds.com%2F50-years-
old-female-with-
cardiovascular_disease&layout=button&locale=en_GB&sdk=joey&share=true&size=large)

~~~
mathdev
Fixed to only include the base URL.

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steelframe
What information are you logging? IP addresses and responses?

What is your data retention policy? Privacy policy? Who will you be sharing
the information you collect with?

What if you tell someone they have low odds of death, and then they take more
risks as a result of what you told them? If they were to end up dying of
COVID-19 because they are induced to take more risks, do you think you will
have exposed yourself to any legal liability?

~~~
mathdev
I don't log or store anything, except for what is logged by Google Analytics.

> If they were to end up dying of COVID-19 because they are induced to take
> more risks, do you think you will have exposed yourself to any legal
> liability?

If that were the case, publishing any actuarial tables should lead to legal
liability (and it definitely doesn't, at least where I am from).

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jdks82ksk
Questions. How are you calculating risk? What do the risk scores mean? How
accurate are they? What responsibility do you bear if your tool is wrong and
someone gets hurt?

I am not saying all this to be a wet blanket, but because these are real
ethical and legal issues that must be considered when making claims about
healthcare related products. Otherwise I think this is a cool idea and nifty
piece of app building.

My personal advice: consider reframing this as something other than a
“personal risk calculator”. Either that or add a lot of explanations and
disclaimers.

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mathdev
I am reluctant to accept the American/Western mentality in these things, but I
have added some disclaimers. Thanks.

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gnrlst
I suggest having a repository where people can contribute to the algorithm
(with a requirement being to back up any proposed modification with a
scientific source).

Also interesting that you put the non-covid risk as well, really brings things
into perspective. In my age bracket I have a 0.18% of dying in the next 12
months, but only 0.017% from covid.

~~~
mathdev
That's a neat idea, though not sure if I will have the time.

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mathdev
I made this tool after seeing much confusion, even on HN, about the risks for
an individual posed by COVID-19. On the results page, click the question marks
for detailed sources and methodology. I will appreciate constructive feedback.

~~~
tosh
do you have an overview on how you did the weighing of various parameters?

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mathdev
See the modals that display after clicking the question marks for details.

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mr_gibbins
It's interesting, but any reason why the age limit is 89? And when I adjust
for co-morbidities (presumably adding them) my chance of hospitalisation
and/or death actually decreases?

~~~
logicchains
>And when I adjust for co-morbidities (presumably adding them)

It asks if you have any pre-existing health conditions. If you state no for
this, presumably it means no co-morbidities, so your risk of death is lower
than the average.

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oski
Question to the author (mathdev?): does this calculator take into account: 1)
the effect of viral load/dose on outcome/severity 2) current data on rates of
asymptomatic carriers?

~~~
mathdev
1) No. I don't imagine there are any reliable statistics available on that,
and how could you estimate your dose?

2) Yes, this was taken into account by the study, data from which the
algorithm uses.

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okapii
Hah this outputs the same results no matter which precondition boxes you tick.

~~~
mathdev
Yeah, it only takes into account whether one has preconditions or not, at the
moment. The plan was to produce more detailed calculations, but it is
difficult.

~~~
okapii
Well this is highly misleading then and pretty irresponsible. People could
have multiple severe issues and yet this states that there is little risk.

~~~
mathdev
No. First, having multiple conditions doesn’t qualitatively change the result.

Second, the figure shown by default is not adjusted for comorbidities and the
adjustment is clearly marked as experimental.

You are all just crazy with the panic and that’s it.

