
First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S. - adenner
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/01/21/798137962/china-tries-to-control-travel-in-and-out-of-wuhan-to-stem-coronavirus-spread
======
exposay
China has been covering it up for 2 months. Minimal action was taken to
prevent the disease from spreading and they kept denying until a couple days
ago when it was no longer possible to cover it up because it is spreading to
neighboring countries who have been complaining for the whole time.
Regional/local governments have been trying to downplay it because it makes
them "look bad". It is essentially a replay of SARS. Only admit and take
action when it's too late.

~~~
nickczj
China doesn't get to decide the scientific consensus. Teams of scientists
spanning multiple countries + NGOs like the WHO make the risk assessment. The
reason the scientific consensus was that there was no human-human transmission
was because...there was no evidence of human-human transmission. All previous
cases could be directly traced back to the market, and there were previously
no clear evidence of healthcare workers or relatives with no exposure to the
market but exposure to an infected individual getting sick.

Unlike anonymous users online, professional scientists can't make a claim,
especially a very serious one, without evidence. If they do so, later the
public will crucify them if it turns out the virus actually cannot spread from
human-human.

It's only in the past three days that it because clear that there is evidence
of people who don't have a direct link to the market being infected. A big
reason for this breakthrough was that the genome of the virus was identified
(by, yes, Chinese scientists working within two weeks of realizing a novel
outbreak, which is also impressive). This genome sequence makes possible very
sensitive tests for identifying infected people more accurately.

Hence, in the light of this new information, the scientific consensus has been
updated to reflect likely human-human transmission.

Please stop spreading false information and unnecessary hatred. This only
makes the response to a crisis worse.

~~~
yorwba
Well, in this case professional scientists actually made claims about the
classification of the virus as soon as they had evidence, and before the
government had put out an official statement. But then they got prosecuted for
"spreading rumors" and people stopped talking publicly about the progress of
their research.

Now the government is getting criticized for this by e.g. Hu Fanzhu of East
China Normal University's National Discourse Environment Research Center,
whose open letter you might want to read if you think stopping people from
"spreading false information" is what's important here.

[https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/toFmfLsLn_x6PhGFliictg](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/toFmfLsLn_x6PhGFliictg)

------
mamborambo
An important side story is that CCP's active political interference of
Taiwan's participation in World Health Organisation and other international
coordination effort in the past few years, can affect Taiwan's ability to
contain any pandemic from spreading.

And since there is estimated 200,000 Taiwan nationals living across the
strait, their mobility especially during the Spring festival can become a huge
conduit for spreading infection from China into Taiwan.

It is high time that the UN commits to a resolution to insulate shared global
issues (hygiene and environment) from politics, and stop China from playing
with fire again and again.

~~~
dear
There has been critics in Asia on that the ex-Director General (2006-2017) of
WHO, Margaret Chan, who was sponsored by China for the position, had been
building up influence in the organization for China during her term so WHO
would work in China's favour. Its effect is showing this time in how WHO
handled this incident. Instead of taking a lead and look into the whether
China had handled the pandemic properly upon its onset, WHO just parrot
China's official stance, in fear of offending China.

* [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Chan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Chan)

------
yread
If you're scared just read the wiki on SARS - the previous coronavirus
infection - to refresh your memory.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_SARS_outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_SARS_outbreak)

It was a LOT worse that time - Chinese government basically covering up for
the first 6 months, virus isolated only much later, sequenced months later.

~~~
Arn_Thor
The coverup is such an important part of why SARS turned out so bad. It
mutated after the initial outbreak from a relatively benign virus to a much
more deadly variety. (The longer the outbreak lasts and the more people are
infected, the more likely such a mutation is) This time the Chinese government
has been much more open (relatively), and the virus has been identified at a
much earlier stage. I'd be pretty optimistic if it weren't for the Lunar New
Year holiday, which could really screw up the efforts to contain the spread.

------
EdibleMarbles
If anyone wants to track the progression of the virus, I created a quick site
with a Google Maps embed to show where the virus has been found so far. I'll
be improving it over the next few days.

[http://www.coronavirusmap.com/](http://www.coronavirusmap.com/)

~~~
TallGuyShort
Is it just me, or does it not even have Wuhan?

~~~
361994752
Seems it only marks the countries where the virus has been found, not
paticullar cities.

------
matthewfcarlson
As someone who lives quite close to the hospital in the article, it was
interesting seeing reactions this morning at the office. Some people
immediately wondered about their immuno compromised friends and family, while
others (myself included) just sort of said "huh" and went about our day. It
will be interesting to see how this plays out.

~~~
iFred
I live in a building with a quite a few nurses that work at that hospital. It
kind of scares me that one of them open mouth coughed in the elevator with me
the other night. Probably nothing more than a tired nurse and a dry throat,
but still kind of weird to read about a thing that is a block away from where
you live.

~~~
rayhendricks
Hah after reading this there’s no way I’m getting near the light rail for the
next month or two.

It’s a direct line from SeaTac where people we be flying into from SE Asia
after lunar new year is over, and is currently undergoing construction so
railway cars are packed at rush hour.

------
yzh
It is not SARS, but it is highly possible that it was caused by people who
kill and sell wild animals in the live poultry market. Where these animals
like gem-faced civet got virus from bats. It is a long-held tradition for
certain regions in China to eat wild animals. We even have a Chengyu called:
山珍海味, meaning precious and tasty animals from mountains and seas. Most wild
animals are not evolved to be eaten by human, so not like beef or pork, they
do not taste well. People only eat it because they can. Because they want to
show others that they can. This is sad.

~~~
knolax
Literally every culture hunts wild game. This is such a weird thing to
consider unique to China.

~~~
corporate_shi11
What they're describing is different from the hunting culture that persists in
developed societies. It's more like hunter gatherer hunting for bushmeat
embedded in an agricultural and livestock raising society where such hunting
is unnecessary so the hunt is more about status, which is a bit unique.

~~~
knolax
> It's more like hunter gatherer hunting for bushmeat embedded in an
> agricultural and livestock raising society where such hunting is unnecessary
> so the hunt is more about status

It seems like you just described "the hunting culture that persists in
developed societies".

~~~
Fomite
Just like with Ebola, we really like using "bushmeat" as othering language to
describe hunting.

~~~
trianglem
Never thought of it like that but “bushmeat” is just hunted game. Right?

~~~
Fomite
Yep.

------
taiwanboy
The Chinese government has had difficulties handling the situation. I think we
might need WHO to jump in soon.

(Chinese New Years is in 3 days and few hundred million people will travel in
congested trains and flights. Also people in China usually don’t cover their
mouths when they cough)

Coronavirus: Chinese hospitals not testing patients, say relatives
[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/21/coronavirus-
ch...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/21/coronavirus-chinese-
hospitals-not-testing-patients-say-relatives)

Wuhan virus kills fourth patient, infects hospital staff amid fear of ‘super-
spreader’
[https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3046908/new-...](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3046908/new-
china-virus-likely-human-transmission-stage-infections)

man in Wuhan infected with coronavirus went to hospital but got sent away,
took a flight to Dalian & became Patient Zero in Dalian
[https://www.reddit.com/r/China/comments/erszdd/disease_contr...](https://www.reddit.com/r/China/comments/erszdd/disease_control_with_chinese_characteristics_man/)

~~~
chrisco255
The WHO is a policy org. They don't have any power to do anything on their
own. They can only recommend things.

------
tptacek
Coronaviruses are transmitted in what seems to be the same manner as influenza
and generate some of the same symptoms. Why do the worst coronaviruses, like
SARS, transmit so slowly, while the flu is practically ubiquitous?

~~~
aodin
While SARS does have a longer incubation period, typically 2-7 days compared
to the common flu's 1-4 days, the "slow transmission" that you've witnessed is
more likely the successful work of national and international public health
agencies preventing its spread. Especially by means of contact tracing and
quarantine.

Seasonal flu variants have a lethality of around 0.1%. The Spanish flu of 1918
was around 2%. SARS has a fatality rate of around 10%. There is minimal
difference in transmission between strains. The only thing preventing disaster
is effective public health response.

~~~
tptacek
Just according to superficial stats, it looks like the flu kills orders of
magnitude more people than SARS and MERS. Is the public health response to
these diseases really so effective as to account for most of this difference?
I don't pay close attention but also wouldn't off the top of my head be able
to describe anything that, say, Washington State does to effectively respond
to CoV incidents to keep it from propagating rapidly through the population
the way the flu does.

(I'm asking because I'm curious and seriously have no clue how this stuff
works).

~~~
aodin
Yes, seasonal flu in the US alone kills around 30,000 each year, and may have
killed as many as 60,000 during the 17-18 flu season alone [1]. MERS and SARS
have each killed less than 1,000 worldwide.

A few things that may interest you:

* The rate of transmission for a disease is estimated by its R0 or basic reproduction number. R0 estimates the number of new cases from the unaffected population that one infection will cause. A disease with R0 <1 will die out by itself. SARS has an estimated R0 of 3-5, while seasonal flus are between 1 and 2 [2]. So by this measure alone SARS is more "infectious" than the flu. Note that R0 is not a rate and is estimated from mathematical models [3].

* Seasonal flu predominantly kills the young, the elderly, and the immunocompromised. Interestingly, some strains, such as the Spanish Flu, have very different mortality curves that kill healthy middle aged adults far more than average [4]. I would expect a dramatically different public health response compared to normal seasonal flu if a future pandemic had a similar mortality curve.

* In the US, the "tip of the spear" for disease response would be the CDC's Division of Global Migration and Quarantine [5].

[1]
[https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html)
[2]
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19545404](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19545404)
[3] [https://web.stanford.edu/~jhj1/teachingdocs/Jones-
on-R0.pdf](https://web.stanford.edu/~jhj1/teachingdocs/Jones-on-R0.pdf) [4]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#/media/File:W_curv...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#/media/File:W_curve.png)
[5] [https://www.cdc.gov/ncezid/dgmq/quarantine-fact-
sheet.html](https://www.cdc.gov/ncezid/dgmq/quarantine-fact-sheet.html)

------
ryanmercer
They suspected a man in Australia of having it and were awaiting test results
yesterdayish too [https://www.smh.com.au/national/first-australian-
monitored-f...](https://www.smh.com.au/national/first-australian-monitored-
for-coronavirus-authorities-confirm-20200121-p53tc7.html)

There is also /r/China_Flu/ for those that wanta centralized location for
news.

I think this is certainly not a great thing but I urge people not to panic.
Any time some sort of new disease starts to spread a portion of the population
immediately overreacts and starts to get a little nutty "how do I protect
myself? What should I buy? Will bleach kill it?! How about OmniCide, Madacide,
Opticide?!?!".

Keep in mind that colds and regular flu are going around right now too, if you
feel sick it's probably _not_ this virus. Last week my office had a stomach
bug, by Friday a few people had bad head/chest colds, this week the stomach
bug is all gone and half the office has a head/chest cold and definitely not
this virus yet someone on second shift has a hospital mask on (and as far as I
know don't have a valid medical reason to remotely justify it).

~~~
satokema_work
I wish wearing hospital masks was more accepted. Out of the listed reactions,
it's probably the least overreaction possible, especially if it's a
fashionable one and not actually hospital color...

~~~
ryanmercer
I've read such conflicting information on them. Some sources say they protect
other people from you more than they do you, some say they protect you 60-80%,
some say washing your hands properly (and frequently) is more effective etc.

~~~
kaylynb
Even if the mask doesn't actually protect you, it will prevent you from
touching your face and mouth absent-mindlessly.

~~~
greglindahl
Do you have any data about that?

------
Fomite
[https://www.mobs-lab.org/2019ncov.html](https://www.mobs-
lab.org/2019ncov.html)

Current modeling estimates put the likely number of infections between 1 and
6.2 thousand, primarily concentrated in China.

~~~
prepend
This estimate [0] puts it at 4,000 as of Jan 18.

It’s weird to not have government numbers that are actionable and we have to
use models that range from 1-9.7k.

[0] [https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-
ana...](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news
--wuhan-coronavirus/)

~~~
Fomite
It's actually not all that weird. The link I posted above is from a group that
was funded by the NIH in a program called MIDAS (Modeling Infectious Disease
Agent Study). The express _goal_ was to produce modeling platforms usable by
the government.

Imperial's MRC group has a very similar mandate, IIRC. Where these numbers are
coming from, and the range of uncertainty around them, is very much
characteristic of an emerging infectious disease (bad early data,
stochasticity, etc.).

------
swamp40
Reports are that China has just quarantined Wuhan, a city of 11 million
people.

~~~
nexuist
Logistically, how can they do this?

~~~
metalliqaz
China has the largest active military in the world, according to this list in
Wikipedia:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_military_and_paramilitary_personnel)

------
yingw787
I read on Reddit that Chinese New Year is the largest regularly occurring
human migration event in the world. Millions of Chinese people gather on
public transport and planes To go home to celebrate. It’s in a few days I
think.

Also I’m not sure how the CDC is preparing for this under 45, but given the
state of the federal government I would guess it’s less prepared than the days
of the Ebola scare.

Hopefully things will not be too interesting. I hate it when things are
interesting.

~~~
Fomite
A couple notes, from an infectious disease epidemiologist:

\- The CDC Director is, in rare form for this administration, not someone
devoted to dismantling the agency he's in charge of. I work with the CDC
fairly frequently, and they're in pretty good shape.

\- This is our third novel coronavirus, and the 2nd out of China. There's been
a lot of prep work for this.

~~~
dx034
But wouldn't prevention require to screen all returning passengers from China
and/or other Asian countries after Chinese New Year? I'm not sure how feasible
that would be with the number of connecting flights with passengers from China
arriving in the US each day. Or is it enough to isolate patients once they are
ill enough to seek treatment?

~~~
Fomite
Generally speaking in the U.S., quick isolation and contact tracing once cases
do arise works well enough when combined with good infection control at the
point of treatment.

------
crazy5sheep
I was in Guangdong when SARS happened in 2003, I have heard rumors for months
until the Chinese gov eventually admitted there's such virus exists. Ever
since then I basically have zero trust in the Chinese gov. For this time,
since Chinese new year is coming, I had actually warned my coworkers do not go
back to China, especially Wuhan, a couple days back. So bad not everyone
listen, now they are kind of scared.

~~~
taiwanboy
Yup SARS did not coincide with hundred of millions of people stuffed in closed
compact train cars and plane seats for hours at a time. This coronavirus might
mutate faster than we could predict. Nobody should be traveling to China right
now

------
glofish
I feel like it has been so long since the swine flu, bird flu, H1N1 flu, and
other flu scares that we are due for one.

Like the recessions the flu scares are cyclical.

~~~
munificent
The Spanish Flu was almost exactly 100 years ago. Recent enough that we think
of it as being in modern times with relatively modern medicine and hospitals.
My grandmother lived through it, so this isn't the distant past.

Current estimates are that it killed up to 100,000,000 million people, as many
as the black plague.

We have much better medicine now, thankfully. But we also live in a much more
deeply connected world with millions of people flying every single day.

~~~
duncanawoods
It's curious how little cultural impact it has compared to the world wars or
Black Plague despite the death-toll. I've never seen a TV series or film about
it or any art, songs or phrases. There is no iconic photograph that comes to
mind. It's just a minor footnote to WW1. I don't know if it's wartime
censorship or just overshadowed but it's really quite odd.

~~~
Koshkin
> _little cultural impact_

How many people are dying today from preventable causes? Have you heard songs
about them?

~~~
triceratops
The Spanish Flu was, by definition, not curable since so many people died of
it.

There have been many films, books, and other media about other epidemics.
HIV/AIDS, bubonic plague, smallpox, and polio come to mind.

I think GP was pointing out how much WW1 overshadowed everything else that was
going on at the time. In any other moment in history, the Spanish Flu would
have been a significant occurrence.

------
sodopro
Bit alarming considering chinese new year is coming up.

------
xbmcuser
This virus is going to spread a lot wider and faster in the next month as
chinese new year is next week. Most people are going to their home town then
back to major cities all over the world not just China.

------
kadoban
Anyone have a sober perspective of how bad this is likely to get? Is this
comparable to a bad but forgetten-by-the-next-year flu strain? To SARS? To the
Spanish Flu?

~~~
bart_spoon
I don't think we can know yet. It's infected around 300 people, 6 of whom have
died, putting a mortality rate of around 2%. Thats not as bad as SARS, which
was 10%, but its early. SARS ended up being restricted to around 8000 people,
mostly concentrated in China, though eventually spreading to dozens of
countries, but its impossible to say how far and wide this one could spread,
especially given that the outbreak is occuring on the eve of Chinese New Year.

According to some of the sources I've found online, coronaviruses tend to be
much less easily spread from human to human than something like the flu, but
just a few days ago officials were saying they didn't think this virus was
transmissible between humans, which they now have confirmed is in fact
possible, so clearly its a very fast developing situation.

~~~
Fomite
That mortality rate isn't at all reliable at this point - we have lots of
unconfirmed cases which messes with the denominator, and we haven't had all
the people who _do_ have it develop their outcome.

2% is very much a best-case estimate right now.

------
AnimalMuppet
_A traveler from China_ landing on US soil, and detected at the airport
(Seattle). This isn't spreading in the US population... yet. (And won't be
from this, if containment procedures in Seattle work... and if they didn't
transmit it to others on the plane... and maybe a few other ifs.)

~~~
bart_spoon
According to the Washington Post[0], it wasn't caught at the airport, and he
isn't a traveller, he is a resident in the Seattle area returning from China.

> Washington state health officials said the man, a resident of Snohomish
> County, Wash., returned from a trip to the region around Wuhan, where the
> outbreak began. He arrived at Seattle’s international airport last
> Wednesday. Shortly afterward, he began feeling ill and reached out to his
> health-care provider on Sunday. Local, state and federal officials quickly
> collected samples and sent them to the Centers for Disease Control and
> Prevention, where his case was confirmed Monday as the coronavirus

Officials say they are trying to track down people he may have had contact
with. Sounds like he was on top of things, and so they identified things as
quickly as possible, but the disease is not necessarily contained.

[0]
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/01/21/coronavirus...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/01/21/coronavirus-
us-case/)

~~~
incompatible
> he isn't a traveller, he is a resident in the Seattle area returning from
> China.

A traveller is somebody who travels, e.g., from Seattle to China and back.

~~~
bart_spoon
The implication seemed to be that it was someone passing through, as opposed
to a resident. But yes, my read could have been wrong.

~~~
incompatible
It confused me a bit on initial reading because a non-traveller in Seattle
would have to have caught it there.

------
yashvanth
The U.N. should declare an emergency to curb the spreading of the
coronavirus(they are still talking over this like wtf!). Neighboring countries
have amped up screenings of flyers from China.

------
Antoninus
Scary stuff, I'm travelling with my family through China into Russia. Make
sure you mask and hand sanitizer handy.

------
narrator
First the swine flu kills half the pigs in China. Now this thing.

------
catalogia
The marketing department of the beer company must be livid.

~~~
dpcan
Not if they're smart enough to capitalize on this.

With just the right touch, they could potentially crush it with the Super Bowl
coming.

I don't know. Maybe a bunch of people sitting around holding Corona Light
beers with hospital masks on. They are just looking at each other. Then at
their beers. They can't take their masks off. One guy tries to drink it
through the mask, just kind-of chokes. Another tries to pour it through the
little cracks at the top of the mask... no good. Finally, one guy says screw-
it, takes his mask of and drinks the beer. Everyone else follows.

Then, to be a little tongue in cheek, a guy at the very end of the commercial
coughs.

------
geggam
As someone who takes regular flights on planes I find this disturbing.

~~~
Enginerrrd
Wearing an N95 mask and washing your hands properly will prevent the
overwhelming majority of transmission. Could someone still sneeze in your eye?
Sure. Could you wear your mask improperly because you haven't been fit tested,
yeah. But you sure can reduce your risk a lot.

~~~
ohazi
> Could you wear your mask improperly because you haven't been fit tested,
> yeah.

It is next to impossible to wear an N95 mask correctly.

~~~
Fomite
It's also not at all clear that N95 masks are meaningfully superior to
surgical masks.

One of several studies on the topic:
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4868605/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4868605/)

------
tobenortobe
I read on the news first symptomes observed in USA,also here who[0] emergency
prep. responses, given details about some cases
[0][https://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/year/2020/en/](https://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/year/2020/en/)

