
New Study Shows Coronavirus Immunity May Only Last a Few Months - pmoriarty
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/m7j97a/new-study-shows-coronavirus-immunity-may-only-last-a-few-months
======
rurban
why a new study for obvious general knowledge? Flu virii mutate every two
weeks anyway, and the next saison flu is always something different. The
immunosystem is well trained to such problems, that's why antibodies are not
needed for more than one saison. Next saison could be a H1N1 which is a real
danger (the lower the numbers the higher the mortality rates), wonder if they
will react also that hysterically as this year. Never underestimate global
psychopathology.

~~~
dragonwriter
> why a new study for obvious general knowledge?

It's not obvious general knowledge; while as a class coronaviruses don't
usually have extremely long-term immunity, there's considerable variability
and how durable the immunity typically produced for _this_ coronavirus is has
been a question of much interest.

> Flu virii mutate every two weeks anyway,

It's not even worth discussing of that's true, since flu viruses
(Orthomyxoviridae) are a different family from coronaviruses (coronaviradae,
and specifically subfamily orthocoronavirinae).

> and the next saison flu is always something different.

COVID-19 isn't a seasonal flu (or any other kind of flu), and what varies from
flu season to season is the mix of strains, it's quite possible for individual
strains to be in that mix for more than one season.

> Next saison could be a H1N1 which is a real danger (the lower the numbers
> the higher the mortality rates),

The danger is more than just a factor of mortality rate, which is why the
current COVID-19 pandemic is a much bigger deal than, say, any historic Ebola
outbreak, despite the much lower fatality rate (whether case or infection).

~~~
rurban
so why is this year's COVID-19 such a big deal then? with about 800.000 deaths
it's a medium flu season. Weak would be under 500.000 strong over 1.000.000.
In most countries we to have undermortality (with an IFR of under 0.3%). I see
the danger of the global panic caused by politics, which is a big deal.

from which family the saisonal flu comes from is not really interesting (other
than vaccination planners) and only politically relevant. The disease is
always the same.

~~~
dragonwriter
> so why is this year's COVID-19 such a big deal then?

Because the combination of infectiousness and impact of infection gives it the
capacity to overwhelm health systems, making all kinds of conditions
(including itself) more deadly than they would be with a non-overwhelmed
system, unless unusually strong measures are taken to control the spread (and
even if and for a while after they are, if they aren't taken early enough), a
potentiality that has been realized in a number of places.

> with about 800.000 deaths it's a medium flu season.

Both the CDC and WHO have around 650,000 as the high end of the normal annual
global range of flu deaths, so, no, 800,000 would be a very bad year for flu
deaths. COVID-19 alone has killed around 570,000 globally in less than a year,
_despite_ fairly intense control measures that aren't usually taken for the
flu (and, of course, the flu didn't take a break, though the COVID-19
motivated control measures adopted late in flu season also reduced flu
numbers.)

> with about 800.000 deaths it's a medium flu season.

Yeah, if a country took effective steps to control COVID-19 early enough, it
got a big benefit on flu numbers _and_ avoided much impact, in terms of deaths
at least, from COVID-19. And lots of countries did that, and that's great.

The countries that didn’t, either because the need wasn't clear before they
were too heavily infected or because they simply dawdled because of leadership
incompetence have _enormous_ excess mortality. (The US already has nearly
triple the deaths from COVID-19 as it has from flu during the particularly bad
2017-2018 flu season, and, that's not even counting the actual flu deaths it
also had in the 2019-2020 season.

> from which family the saisonal flu comes from is not really interesting
> (other than vaccination planners) and only politically relevant. The disease
> is always the same.

No, it's not always the same, even when talking about actual seasonal flus.
But especially when talking about a disease that is neither seasonal nor a
flu.

