
Ask HN: How do you estimate how long projects will take? - mildwest
Hey HN,<p>There&#x27;s a company that I&#x27;ve done a lot of contract development&#x2F;design work for. In the past I&#x27;ve always charged an hourly rate but they asked if we could move to a flat fee per project.<p>I often struggle estimating how much time a project will take me. Because of this I usually try to guess high, but in practice my guesses range from way too low to way too high.<p>Another option would be to bill based upon the value I&#x27;m providing, instead of the time it takes. This probably makes more sense, but then I&#x27;m stuck with the even more difficult task of estimating how much value I&#x27;m creating.<p>I&#x27;d really appreciate any tips on the best way to estimate project length or cost.<p>Thanks!
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davismwfl
So I am not directly answering tips for estimating, but I implore you to not
use flat fee or value based unless you have an amazing grasp on both the
project and client AND you are prepared to have an attorney help you put
together a very very detailed agreement.

Here is the problem, flat fee projects and value based projects can be great,
if you have a good client and you can reasonably predict the project scope and
have a reasonable estimation of the possible unknowns. I have worked this way
quite a number of times over many years in consulting. What I found is that
most times, even with a decent client and a good estimation, a flat fee
project almost always looses money. A value based contract on the other hand
doesn't generally loose money but it can be hard to estimate and hard to sell
to a client depending on the contract value and your experience.

So, unless you have an excellent handle on the project and have an excellent
handle on the client, never do a flat free project. A value based project has
it's own headaches and should have significant contractual obligations on both
sides to insure neither party is injured because of the other. For a
consultant, this means essentially it has to state, I am building X (in superb
fine grained detail) and client is paying Y at each milestone (in again the
same level of detail), and any variance or deviation from either will result
in additional fees. In fairness to the client, it should also state that you
don't get paid for any milestone until you deliver that milestone, each
milestone should contain a specific testing procedure and delivery procedure
to validate it was completed and delivered. If you are late delivering, the
extra time is on you. This is a bit of an oversimplification, but it hopefully
gets the point across.

IMO, unless you have an excellent grasp avoid both flat free and value
projects and stick to either Hourly or Weekly billing. I prefer a weekly
billing method because it forces clients to spend in larger chunks which helps
you control the situation a little better (not perfect but better). Not to
mention, you save yourself some paperwork and time in how you invoice and
manage your time. Hourly is still very viable, and while it comes with extra
headaches in managing and invoicing time properly, it is the safest generally
for a newer consultant.

