
TSMC to Build Advanced Semiconductor Factory in Arizona - JumpCrisscross
https://www.wsj.com/articles/taiwan-company-to-build-advanced-semiconductor-factory-in-arizona-11589481659
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dang
We've moved most comments moved to
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23187698](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23187698),
the current thread on this, excepting the comments that were about this
probably being a rumor (now clear that's not so), the comments confusing
Taiwan for China, the political/nationalistic flamebait, and sundry
unsubstantives.

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websg-x
TSMC official announcement. 5nm fab, 20000 wafers/month, 1600 jobs.

[https://www.tsmc.com/tsmcdotcom/PRListingNewsAction.do?actio...](https://www.tsmc.com/tsmcdotcom/PRListingNewsAction.do?action=detail&language=E&newsid=THGOANPGTH)

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aristophenes
Can US $12 Billion cost be right? Going to be difficult to make their money
back on what will by then be an old node, with 20,000 wafers per month.

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baybal2
I think this is a false rumour. The digital office of Taiwanese president is
vehemently against letting fab tech out of the island. The woman running it is
super sharp, can tell from knowing people who worked under her personally.

It is one of their biggest insurance against mainland aggression. Any conflict
with Taiwan is suicidal for the mainland economically. Plus, add the fact that
3/4 of China's own light industry is within 1000km radius of Taiwan.

TSMC has already bough land and started construction for its 5nm fab, and laid
first stone for 3nm fabs in Taiwan.

Stopping 3nm fab construction now is completely out of the question unless
they are ready to throw out few billion dollars cash out of the window, at the
time when they took biggest debt obligations in their history.

Only 2nm node is left on the roadmap, but there are big, big doubts of it
materialising any time soon. We are talking about at least 8-10 years.

With all my knowledge of the industry, such deliberations never result in
decisions like "Hey, lets set aside 20-30 billion USD to lay still for 10
years, and hope for everything happen according to plan."

Semiconductor fab companies are extremely, extremely risk averse, and snap
judgements are completely uncharacteristic of the industry.

They don't do anything without having top tier economists, and finance people
have a go at the task for years on end. _Financial planning of fab
construction takes years._

 _What is much more likely is them taking over a smaller fab in US, or
building a limited scale project to make specialty chips for rad-hard, or US
military hardware companies on US soil._ This is what I myself been hearing
for much longer than Trump been in office.

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sremani
I think you are wrong, the geo-political tectonic plates has not only shifted
but collided violently in Jan 2020.

US is brining supply-chain by hook or crook.

Taiwan needs Americas protection and no other country can be its security
guarantor not even Japan. So US has leverage.

I would be surprised if TSMC does not open multiple facilities in US.

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pjc50
US is making a lot of noise about it, but the current administration lacks the
competence to actually do it. The US generally doesn't do this kind of state-
directed enterprise dirigisme, outside of Boeing.

Remember Foxconn Wisconsin?
[https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/12/21217060/foxconn-
wisconsi...](https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/12/21217060/foxconn-wisconsin-
innovation-centers-empty-buildings)

~~~
monocasa
Falling behind in state of the art of fabs is seen by the DoD as the same kind
of strategic issue that leads to them propping up Boeing.

~~~
anitil
> the same kind of strategic issue that leads to them propping up Boeing

I don't quite understand what you mean by this, what is the context of US
support for Boeing?

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redis_mlc
Here's the backstory on Boeing and the military.

US air doctrine is that they will always buy air dominance, so Boeing will be
funded for military programs. However, the US govt. historically has had the
influence to tell military aircraft mfgs. what to prioritize, and what lines
to drop.

An example is Northrop. They were told to drop the popular F-5 and F-20, and
focus on the B-1 program. They were also told to merge with a competitor, but
declined.

It's weird when you first study it, but the US Air Force wants zero risk
missions into enemy skies.

So that's why they're ok with a handful of $200 million fighters and $2
billion bombers, if they're stealthy enough not to be seen.

(Stalin on the other hand is often attributed with saying, "Quantity has a
quality of its own." I would argue a balance is needed between a perfect
fighter, in the case of the F-22 with under 200 airframes mfg., and having
10,000 slightly less perfect ones, like the F-16.)

W: F-22
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-22_Raptor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-22_Raptor)

~~~
catalogia
If the public cannot stomach allied casualties, losing too many pilots might
end a war even if the material cost of the planes was low. Quantity may have a
quality of it's own, but maintaining public morale seems just as important.

~~~
pjc50
Oddly, at the moment there are people on American streets demanding casualties
in order to get the malls open again.

(Coronavirus death toll now larger than Vietnam)

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gjsman-1000
CONFIRMED! IT'S HAPPENING!
[https://www.tsmc.com/tsmcdotcom/PRListingNewsAction.do?actio...](https://www.tsmc.com/tsmcdotcom/PRListingNewsAction.do?action=detail&language=E&newsid=THGOANPGTH)

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gjsman-1000
IT'S REAL!
[https://www.tsmc.com/tsmcdotcom/PRListingNewsAction.do?actio...](https://www.tsmc.com/tsmcdotcom/PRListingNewsAction.do?action=detail&language=E&newsid=THGOANPGTH)

~~~
dang
Can you please stop using allcaps for emphasis? You've been doing it a lot,
and this is in the site guidelines:

 _Please don 't use uppercase for emphasis. If you want to emphasize a word or
phrase, put asterisks around it and it will get italicized._

[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html).

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supernova87a
I am a little skeptical, but also more convinced by the lack of Trump-hype
behind the announcement. If it did accompany it, it would have all the
hallmarks of a Foxconn-style announcement that leads to nothing.

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KaoruAoiShiho
Is anyone going to cry forced tech transfer?

~~~
antishatter
TSMC develops the tech often times in partnerships. AMD definitely paid for a
lot of the tech and manufacturing research that went into the current state.

~~~
magicsmoke
Altera too. The regularity of FPGA designs makes them perfect for optimizing
process yield.

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KCUOJJQJ
Isn't this risky regarding industrial espionage? Also, what if the USA
sanctioned China? Wouldn't it be bad if TSMC had a factory in the USA?

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sandeeps_
TSMC is a Taiwanese company, not a Chinese one.

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KCUOJJQJ
I know but what if TSMC had to apply possible US sanctions against China?
First, TSMC would be a US company, which could give the USA an excuse to tell
TSMC to apply sanctions against China. Also, the USA could take the US
factory.

~~~
magicsmoke
The US already has that ability to coerce foreign companies. TSMC buys chip
making supplies and equipment from US companies, and there's been discussions
around requiring foreign companies using US technology to obtain a license to
not supply chips to Huawei or risk getting cut off from the US tech network
themselves.

