
Mass die-off puffin birds linked to climate change - conse_lad
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-05/p-mdo052219.php
======
nanis
The title of this post sounds far more definitive than what the linked content
says.

> A mass die-off of seabirds in the Bering Sea may be partially attributable
> to climate change,

...

> A reduction in food resources before entering molt may have prevented many
> birds from surviving, the authors suggest.

...

> The authors suggest that climate-driven shifts in prey abundance and/or
> distribution, combined with the onset of molt, may have caused this puffin
> die-off, and note that further climate variability in this region is
> probable.

If we go look at the article on which this post is based, we have, in the
abstract:

> Mass mortality events are increasing in frequency and magnitude, potentially
> linked with ongoing climate change ... Immediately prior to this event,
> shifts in zooplankton community composition and in forage fish distribution
> and energy density were documented in the eastern Bering Sea following a
> period of elevated sea surface temperatures, evidence cumulatively
> suggestive of a bottom-up shift in seabird prey availability. We posit that
> shifts in prey composition and/or distribution, combined with the onset of
> molt, resulted in this mortality event.

No one is doing anyone any favors by stretching statements like this. If you
look at the time series[1], you notice regular seasonality and just how
anomalous this particular event seems to be. Given that climate change did not
begin yesterday, this may actually indicate some other cause. Then, you look
at Panel B of that same graph, and notice that this particular data point is
also associated with an anomaly in survey effort.

I wonder why they did not show N_found/Effort.

[1]:
[https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/figure?id=10.1371/...](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/figure?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0216532.g003)

