

Yes, There’s a Pilot Shortage: Salaries Start at $21,000 - roye
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-02-11/yes-theres-a-pilot-shortage-salaries-start-at-21-000#r=most%20popular

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al2o3cr
For a "business" publication, Businessweek seems to have dropped the ball on
basic economics here: there's fewer pilots available to work at the wages
regionals want to pay, but that's not a "shortage", that's the market
expressing a preference for higher pay.

See also the yoyos whining about a "skilled-worker shortage" when then
actually mean "we can't hire experienced machinists for $10/hr!".

~~~
Loughla
That is appallingly true in the manufacturing field, (and finally something on
HN that I've researched to death).

I now work in education, part of which is career and technical education. We
are approached by two very large businesses constantly complaining about the
shortage of skilled workers. "We can't fill these jobs fast enough" is the
theme, and students bite constantly. These jobs range from machine operators,
to skilled machinists to engineers.

One look at the job postings reveal a couple of themes:

Machine operator listed at $10.00; 28 hours a week, so they don't have to
provide benefits. That's an unskilled position, so I don't disagree with the
wage. BUT, for the last 40 years, these positions were full-time with
benefits. In the last 5 to 10 years they've been downsized to whatever the
number is that keeps it just under full-time so the business doesn't have to
worry about benefits.

Skilled Machinist: the last post was for a master machinist (20 years exp? I'm
not sure how long that takes) with various CAD, MAZAK and other various
certifications depending on the job - one even required that the applicant be
a Bridge certified welder in addition to master machinist (price those people
out sometime). They listed at a ‘competitive’ $15-$25 an hour. That's a joke
for the time, energy and ability that it takes to do that job. If you ever
want to see what the definition of good at everything is – talk to a master
machinist those men and women can quite literally use any piece of machinery
that exists. These wages are almost identical to what this position made in
the 1970's. That is over 40 years later, and they expect to pay the same wage.
I'm not certain what they post for a journeyman machinist, but I have to
assume that it's low as well.

Engineer: They can't hire these, because 'your institution isn't turning out
quality applicants'. We were spooked by this, so we did a careful inventory of
current student prospects, and past graduate employment. Turns out that they
can't hire our graduates because they're offering 30,XXX-45,XXX lower per year
than John Deer, Caterpillar and other heavy machinery organizations that are
within 4 hours of our town. Granted, these businesses aren't as large as JD or
Cat, but they are still multi-billion dollar international companies.

My prediction is the following: In 10-15 years we will have an overabundance
of ‘skilled workers’ in the manufacturing field, much as we have a surplus of
college graduates right now. The message to kids used to be ‘go to college,’
now it’s ‘be an engineer or work in the manufacturing industry’. It’s just a
matter of time before the software gets to the point that the monkey entering
numbers doesn’t have to actually understand the numbers to turn out a product.
When that happens, look out kiddos, the bottom will drop out of that market as
well. My proof? Five years ago our first-time, first-year students were 75%
liberal arts/soft sciences, 25% hard sciences and engineering. Our enrollment
figures for Fall 2014 show more of a 50/50 split, with the number of new
engineering students growing faster than any other category. This shift is
nearly unprecedented.

The train is headed down the tracks full speed, and no one is manning the
brakes.

------
philipn
Here's a great summary of what's involved by askcaptainscott on YouTube: Can I
be an airline pilot if I start training in my 30s?
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJk9Skxyi84](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJk9Skxyi84)

I'm far from an expert on air travel, but my understanding is that the
regional airlines have become the backbone of budget US travel, and have a
huge role in this salary gap (between regionals and non-regionals).

Frontline did a great piece on the regional airlines, focusing on safety
problems called "Flying Cheap" \-
[http://video.pbs.org/video/1412744270/](http://video.pbs.org/video/1412744270/)

~~~
kyrra
From my understanding.... if you go back 20+ years, pilots used to be paid a
lot more. Which lead to a lot of people going for their commercial pilots
license and flooding the market. This let the major airlines drop the salary
of starting pilots. Looks like the salary games drove away enough people and
now the problem has swung the other way.

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nobullet
OMG. 21000$/year? Are your kidding?!

Welcome to the former USSR:

civil aviation pilot: about 200,000 - 300,000 russian rubles monthly (5700 -
8500 $ / monthly). Aeroflot pays even more.
([http://otvet.mail.ru/question/89104947/](http://otvet.mail.ru/question/89104947/)).
68000-102000$ yearly. And that's after taxes.

Dictatorship Belarus: 7000-8000 / monthly (84000-96000$ yearly). After taxes.
([http://charter97.org/ru/news/2011/12/6/45448/](http://charter97.org/ru/news/2011/12/6/45448/))

------
bluedino
Is it possible for a 22-year old kid to be a pilot without going to the
military in the US? I would imagine Delta doesn't train people off the
streets.

In that case, wouldn't it be worth just sticking around in the armed forces,
making more than $21k/yr and getting all the benefits that go along with it?

~~~
jonknee
You can certainly decide to go to flight school yourself. As mentioned in the
article though, it's not cheap. The armed forces may or may not be worth it--
having to kill people is a deal breaker for a lot of people.

~~~
JonFish85
Wow, between you & Trufa, one would think that joining the military
necessarily means killing people. Yes, it happens. But let's not pretend
that's the only thing that happens. Maybe air-dropping food to refugees &
people in distress[1]. Airlifting people out of bad situations[2]. There are
plenty of examples.

Most of the people I've known and worked with in the military never had to
kill anyone.

[1]
[http://www.af.mil/News/ArticleDisplay/tabid/223/Article/4678...](http://www.af.mil/News/ArticleDisplay/tabid/223/Article/467841/humanitarian-
assistance-mission-provides-help-to-haiti.aspx)

[2]
[http://www.af.mil/News/ArticleDisplay/tabid/223/Article/4667...](http://www.af.mil/News/ArticleDisplay/tabid/223/Article/466762/bagram-
pilots-save-60-soldiers-during-convoy-ambush.aspx)

~~~
jonknee
You may never kill anyone, but you have to sign up swearing that you will kill
someone if asked to. It's the entire point of the armed forces. That is a deal
breaker for many people (myself included). Similarly, I would never work for a
military contractor or on a weapons project. My work product isn't going to
kill or injure anyone.

Your friends may never have killed anyone directly, but they have certainly
assisted in it. For every supply trip to Haiti, there are thousands of supply
trips moving weapons and soldiers around the world.

~~~
JonFish85
Your first point is true, and that's a fair criticism. If that is a 100% deal-
breaker, then it's probably best not to join the military.

But if you don't want to contribute to anything that could be used to kill
people, you are severely limited. Anything from open-source code (Linux comes
to mind) to chip design can be used to kill people. Remote control airplane
hobbyist? If you have a breakthrough on your hobby, it can presumably be used
in drone technology.

"For every supply trip to Haiti, there are thousands of supply trips moving
weapons and soldiers around the world." What's wrong with that? We have
soldiers on the ground in lots of places. In a lot of ways, that's probably a
good thing. The 2011 involvement in Libya, for instance, is generally viewed
as a responsible intervention of US military.

~~~
krisdol
I don't think we're arguing "good" vs "bad", but if you're have no interest in
supporting military operations, then you have no interest in supporting
military operations. I don't want my work being used by active duty military
and their contractors, and that includes supplying them with food, weapons,
water, more people, etc. Me saying "OK, I'm against this war but as long as
you hold the gun I'm ethically fine with giving you all the housing,
healthcare, food, logistics, weapons, and entertainment you need" is somewhat
hypocritical.

------
jedc
It can be quite a bit different in Europe. In the US, you get to be an airline
pilot either via a) military or b) years of hard graft and low-pay regional
carriers.

Compare this to a recent "Future Pilot" program that British Airways runs:
[http://www.britishairways.com/careers/futurepilot/futurepilo...](http://www.britishairways.com/careers/futurepilot/futurepilot_home.shtml)

They need pilots, and even help fund a guaranteed loan for applicants that
don't have the direct cash for the training fees. And from what I understand
the salaries aren't that bad once you're flying for them.

------
mnw21cam
My brother would love to hear this news (not). He's just been hired as a
pilot. Not, luckily, in the US.

Surely the cost of running a plane is vastly larger than the cost of a pilot's
salary?

~~~
JanezStupar
Junior pilot salaries are not the problem. Senior pilot salaries are.

Basically unions are running a ponzi scheme, where they get juniors to buy in
to this crazy scheme under promise that they will be making hundreds of
thousands of dollars salary ten or twenty years down the road.

I think that at this time the relationship between senior and junior pilots is
pretty representative of how boomers are shafting the younger generations.

~~~
jonknee
> Junior pilot salaries are not the problem. Senior pilot salaries are.

Are they though? Senior pilots fly much larger aircraft on much longer routes.
The $21k pilot mentioned in the article is flying a 50-seat commuter on low-
profit routes. A senior pilot for an international airline (the type that do
make $200k) is flying a wide body that seats 350-500 people and flies over
oceans. They're making 10x, but also flying equipment that costs 10x, carrying
10x the people and making the airline a lot more money.

Also, senior pilots by definition have a limited amount of time left in their
career (thanks to mandatory retirement age), the big paychecks don't last too
many years.

~~~
Robin_Message
The equipment is better for making the airline money, but doesn't sound
especially more difficult to operate, certainly not 10x as difficult. Does
working on a product that produces 10x the revenue justify paying ten times as
much?

Union seniority rules (where pay increases with time of employment, and the
cushiest jobs go to the most "senior") are one of the worse parts of unions
IMHO, and discredit what should be a positive force for more reasonable,
equitable workplaces.

> Also, senior pilots by definition have a limited amount of time left in
> their career (thanks to mandatory retirement age), the big paychecks don't
> last too many years.

I'm guessing large pensions for retired senior pilots are also part of the
problem.

~~~
jonknee
> Union seniority rules (where pay increases with time of employment, and the
> cushiest jobs go to the most "senior") are one of the worse parts of unions
> IMHO, and discredit what should be a positive force for more reasonable,
> equitable workplaces.

Opposed to non-union workplaces where the inexperienced workers make the most
money? Experience always pays more. I understand what you're getting at where
it's not fair that a young superstar makes less than an old know-nothing, but
in general more years of experience does equal more value.

I'd want the heart surgeon who has 25+ years of experience more than I'd want
the kid just off the residency. I'm sure the younger surgeon has the chops,
but if the one in a million thing happens during my surgery I want the
experienced surgeon. Pilots are very similar.

~~~
arethuza
Indeed, if something goes wrong I want the same level of skill as the guys who
landed the plane in the Hudson or saved a 747 after a volcano stopped all 4
engines:

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_Airways_Flight_1549](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_Airways_Flight_1549)
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Airways_Flight_9](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Airways_Flight_9)

The famous announcement from the latter emergency:

"Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem.
All four engines have stopped. We are doing our damnedest to get them going
again. I trust you are not in too much distress."

------
JoeAltmaier
That's the median for a bus driver

------
S_A_P
I think this is pretty common for any industry. Experience gains salary. The
fact that it is a flying machine doesn't really change that much. It seems
that the regionals are serving as a training pool for the larger carriers to
draw from. I wouldnt call that a ponzi scheme, but unions can create unnatural
salary gaps. Is the problem that people feel they are putting their life in
the hands of someone paid 21k? That happens with any form mass transit.

~~~
jonknee
The uncommon part is the very expensive training required before landing that
$21k gig.

------
Eye_of_Mordor
How much do they earn in China?

Wouldn't be at all surprised that they have a ton of experienced pilots, but
earning more than $21,000.

Is this some kind of 'trickle up effect' where cutting salaries at the bottom
has squeezed those in the middle?

~~~
markdown
I don't know what the locals earn, but AFAIK expat jet pilots in China can
earn between $90k and $200k

------
Aardwolf
If there is a shortage, are the mechanisms of capitalism not supposed to make
the salaries higher?

~~~
cowsandmilk
not necessarily, the other microeconomic option is just to not have flights...

salary goes up -> higher ticket prices -> less customers

$21,000 and less flights may be the actual optimum

------
ulfw
No wonder I don't feel safe flying those airlines. Not only are many of their
jets 20+ years old, but I also wouldn't feel safe flying with someone willing
to work for 21K in a job that literally has the lives of people in their
hands.

~~~
a3n
Would you be an astronaut for free?

Lots of people work in jobs so they can do what they love, and money is not
primary.

Money is not an index into the skill scale.

~~~
ramblerman
Perhaps but a one time shot in space isn't close to the same as trucking the
same route day in day out.

~~~
ulfw
Couldn't have said it better myself. Life of a regional airline pilot is hard
and not glamourous. We're not talking flying an A380 to Hong Kong for a fun
shopping trip over the weekend here. We're talking flying a 50 seater up to 10
trips a day between small towns and a hub, which is so shitty paid that you
can't afford an apartment for yourself to sleep in.

[http://www.airfarewatchdog.com/blog/10394117/confessions-
of-...](http://www.airfarewatchdog.com/blog/10394117/confessions-of-a-
regional-jet-pilot/)

------
PaulRobinson
I know quite a few pilots who have dropped £70k+ on getting licensed up. Some
barely get £25k/year. Others make £150k-£200k/year.

It really depends on how good you are and who you know.

~~~
tommorris
To be fair, the same can be said about many degrees these days.

With the £9,000 a year tuition fees, it's easy to rack up £50k in student debt
(£9k fees + £5-7k a year in living expenses) to get a three-year UK degree.

------
roye
OP here. So is this a grad student/resident/apprentice type arrangement? If
so, seems like one of the less worthwhile ones.

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bifftannen
Pilots should really never be skimped on.

------
robodale
I have a friend who was a personal pilot. He makes more now as a mid-western
Radio DJ...with better hours.

~~~
yardie
Personal pilot? As in PPL? PPLs aren't allowed to work as pilots.

~~~
mschuster91
IIRC you're allowed to do stuff like towing ad banners or tourist flyovers in
Cessnas with a PPL (at least it used to be so in Germany).

------
vampirechicken
Is there no H1B program for regional airline pilots? Becuase it works
wonderfully in Corporate IT.

------
jessaustin
The airlines need to investigate the H-1B visa.

[shudder]

------
shultays
I thought $21k were monthly.

