
Is the “hot hand” real? – Numberphile (video) - adenadel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPZFQ6i759g
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clircle
I love thinking about hot hand. When the Miller and Sanjurjo paper was
published I ate it up. Here is a link to a version of that paper
[https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2627354](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2627354)
which has in my opinion one of the greatest openings of any statistical paper:

"Jack takes a coin from his pocket and decides to flip it, say, one hundred
times. As he is curious about what outcome typically follows a heads, whenever
he flips a heads he commits to writing the outcome of the next flip on the
scrap of paper next to him. Upon completing the one hundred flips, Jack of
course expects the proportion of heads written on the scrap of paper to be
one-half. Shockingly, Jack is wrong. For a fair coin, the expected proportion
of heads is smaller than one-half."

Andrew Gelman also wrote about hot hand on this blog:
[http://andrewgelman.com/2015/07/09/hey-guess-what-there-
real...](http://andrewgelman.com/2015/07/09/hey-guess-what-there-really-is-a-
hot-hand/)

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darepublic
So in a related study if we take a bunch of people with low basketball skills
insult some and flatter the others there should be no different in shot
percentage of either group?

