
To Progress and Back: The Rise and Fall of Erdogan's Turkey - merusame
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/turkey-under-erdogan-is-becoming-politically-riven-a-1054359.html
======
venomsnake
That article is from 24th September. So much has happened since then - it
could have been a different eon.

And Edogan's turkey is far from fallen. He is also rogue autocrat protected by
Article 5 of NATO. And from what I observe he has cleaned the state from
people that were believing in Ataturk's Turkey. So the secular people will
have an uphill battle against him.

And we have the Kurds (that might suddenly begin to receive a lot of russian
weapons and training soon)

So much wrong could happen with Europe and middle east now - I envy the people
in the Americas - it is good to know you are on a different continent.

~~~
matt4077
I'm still hoping that Erogan (and, very similarly, Putin) has overstretched
his luck. The HDP is still quite strong after the recent elections, NATO only
hesitantly supports his adventures vs. Russia and based on some of my friends
there, there's a large and energetic generation of young secular students who
see their future in Europe. It's hard sustain an autocracy based only on the
rural, old population and with no support from the intellectuals/business
leaders/journalists etc.

Syria is now Putin vs. Erdogan vs. Al Quaida vs. ISIS vs. Assad vs. Hisbollah
(+ EU, US). It'd be fantastic to watch them _all_ lose if there weren't so
many innocents involved.

~~~
calibraxis
Don't forget Rojava (YPG), the most successful fighters against ISIS. Right at
Turkey's border — and as Putin made it impossible to ignore, Erdogan supports
ISIS. (Apparently Erdogan has dreams of being Caliph.)

[http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/29/magazine/a-dream-of-
utopia...](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/29/magazine/a-dream-of-utopia-in-
hell.html?_r=1)

In my view, their society has ethically surpassed anything in "the West".
Obama's in the absurd position of supporting Erdogan against them, despite YPG
being the US's most effective ally against ISIS. ("Contradictions of empire",
it's maybe called.)

~~~
afsina
> Erdogan supports ISIS. (Apparently Erdogan has dreams of being Caliph.)

Please, do not succumb to this kind of statements. Erdoğan does not support
ISIS, but he does not support YPG or PKK either. So when he did not take
active action why is he portrayed as ISIS supporter? Did not Turkey do enough
to host and feed people from Kobane and treated the wounded Kursdish
fighhters? Turkey simply did not want to enter the mess deeper (But we are
already in anyway..)

He knows that he cannot be a Caliph or such, maybe he had the melancholy of
the Ottoman times, but that's past already.

~~~
cygx
_Please, do not succumb to this kind of statements. Erdoğan does not support
ISIS_

But he at the very least used to collaborate. ISIS is Sunni, they fight Assad,
Iran and the Kurds and needed someone to take their oil off their hands.

That whole terrorist thing and delusions of world domination aside, from
Erdoğan's perspective what's not to like?

~~~
afsina
Is there anybody ISIS does not fight? Turkey lost 130 people with suicide
bombings in last 6 months. What were you expecting? Entering Syria with tanks?
It is easy to talk from an armchair when you are far away from the fire.

~~~
cygx
I'm not merely talking out of my ass here - it's an open secret that Turkey
has been complicit:

[http://www.dw.com/en/is-supply-channels-through-
turkey/av-18...](http://www.dw.com/en/is-supply-channels-through-
turkey/av-18091048)

[http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/26/isis-syria-
turk...](http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/26/isis-syria-turkey-us)

~~~
afsina
"Every day, trucks laden with food, clothing, and other supplies cross the
border from Turkey to Syria. _It is unclear who is picking up the goods._ "

It is a well known fact that Turkey aided Syrian opposition and people live
under attack. Perhaps IS might have seized some goods. It is hard to dispatch
anything when there is a war. But this news piece starts with a silly
assumption. Completely loses the value.

For the second:

" From mid-2013, the Tunisian fighter had been responsible for _smuggling_ oil
from Syria’s eastern fields, which the group had by then commandeered. Black
market oil quickly became the main driver of Isis revenues – and Turkish
buyers were its main clients."

Smuggling. So Turkish government is perpetrator because there are oil
smugglers? Please. IS sells oil to black market and smugglers (probably even
Syrian Government) takes it. How is Turkish government is a supporter of IS
here? Smuggling is a decades old problem in south east Turkey (Mostly Kurdish
area). They tried to prevent it with special high tech chemical marker dyes
and strict controls but you cannot stop it.

Also keep in mind that Guardian always use anti government sources for Turkish
news. (Mostly left leaning, pro-kurdish or Gulenist.).

~~~
cygx
Remember Joe Biden talking about Turkey shipping weapons into Syria that ended
up in the hands of Jihadis?[1]

They actually have been caught red-handed[2], and allegedly it's still
ongoing[3].

I do not believe all accusations are merely propaganda by the West, Russia,
the Kurds or his internal political enemies. Sure, that does happen, and I
would eg take the accusations of Bilal Erdoğan's involvement in the smuggling
of ISIS oil with a grain of salt. But supplying the enemy of your enemies with
weapons and politicians trying to make deals with the devil? That's old news.

[1] [http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/05/politics/isis-biden-
erdoga...](http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/05/politics/isis-biden-erdogan-
apology/)

[2]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_National_Intelligence_Org...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_National_Intelligence_Organisation_scandal_in_Turkey)

[3] [http://www.todayszaman.com/_raid-on-koza-i-pek-media-
group-c...](http://www.todayszaman.com/_raid-on-koza-i-pek-media-group-comes-
after-reports-on-transfer-of-weapons-to-isil_397966.html)

~~~
afsina
[1] This is same deal, even ISIS seized something it was most probably not
intentional. And he apologies for his comments. Nothing to see here.

[2] This scandal was the work of Gulenists. Most likely those weapons were
headed to Syrian opposition but because of the on going war between Gulen and
Erdoğan, Gulenist media presented this as if ISIS was the receiving side.
Surely ISIS may intercept and seize some of weapons (Hey, they even took US
sent weapons!) but portraying this as "ISIS aid" was purely according to
Gulen's agenda. They made this propaganda especially in the foreign media to
strengthen their attack.

[3] Today's Zaman is the most active Gulenist propaganda press. Starting from
mid 2013 their sole aim is to throw Erdoğan from his position. Their
credibility is even lower than pro-Government media.

I am a skeptic and a non-interventionist but I have yet to see any decisive or
convincing proof that Turkish government actually aided ISIS deliberately and
intentionally. I believe those news are mostly result of extreme confirmation
bias, or blatant anti-Erdogan propaganda. There may be some individuals or
group of people in Turkey supporting ISIS, or there might have been some
Logistics screw ups so ISIS took stuff that were meant for others. But that is
it.

