
Ergodicity Economics: A Primer - ogogmad
https://jasoncollins.blog/2020/01/22/ergodicity-economics-a-primer/
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brudgers
People's natural risk aversion is rational. Checks bounce. Companies go
bankrupt. Things that sound to good to be true often are. It is entirely
reasonable to discount potential returns for that risk.

Or to put it another way, the model doesn't conform to reality in a
fundamental way because it mischaracterizes the way money works.

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quantified
It’s rational to avoid the bet. The proportion you stand to lose is more than
you stand to gain. +50% and -33% would balance out. Interesting that some
simulations were picked that showed growth at all, I’d expect net growth would
be negative in most simulations at any point.

