
Electric cars are already cheaper to own and run, says study - DomreiRoam
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study
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tengbretson
I've been very disappointed in the lack of aftermarket battery and bms
replacements for older electric and hybrid vehicles. It seems like I should be
able to jump on Alibaba and get a giant li-ion battery bank + bms and drop it
in a 2005 prius and have a cheap, relatively high-range vehicle.

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thorwasdfasdf
I ran the numbers for here in CA. Even just comparing Gasoline pump cost vs
Electric charging costs, the electrics are roughly equivalent to a car that
gets 45mpg. Maintentance is of course cheaper for electrics because they don't
need oil changes or timing belts or spark plugs but that doesn't mean
electrics don't have expensive maintenance plans attached if sold as Teslas.

Right now Electrics still cost about 10K more than their gasoline
counterparts.

Overrall, I still think a Toyota Prius with 55mpg will be cheaper to run
overrall than an Electric, taking into account total cost of ownership.

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foxyv
Yeah when the Leaf first came out I was checking against CA power rates. CA
electricity is so prohibitively expensive I would have had to get a solar
installation just to afford charging my car. Ended up sticking with my old 90'
Honda Civic that got 35 mpg

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woodandsteel
The key thing to remember is that EV's are going to keep getting cheaper due
to decreases in the battery costs, while ICE's are going to stay the same.
From what I have read, the experts think that around 2022-25 EV's are going to
equal ICE's for purchase price, and at that point the whole market is going to
tip. The only thing slowing down EV sales will be how fast the auto
manufacturers can switch over what they produce.

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titanomachy
This seems to assume that everyone is buying new cars.

Are people who buy new cars generally concerned about which option is
"cheapest"?

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dragontamer
Whatever is cheapest today will likely result in the cheapest car in 5 years.

Electric cars are new, there aren't many electrics in the used market. In
2024, these electric vehicles will be 5-years old, and their used prices will
start propagating towards the general public (who in my view, doesn't
typically buy new cars).

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vanattab
>Whatever is cheapest today will likely result in the cheapest car in 5 years.

Maybe but I could also see electric vehicles not being the cheapest option
with used cars do to the cost of battery replacement. I am not an expert in
cars sales or electric vehicles but my understanding is that currently
batteries make up a huge cost of an electric vehicle. We also know how battery
performance degrades over time. If your in the used car market and your choice
is between an electric car with 1/2 the range it had new so 120 miles or so,
and $10,000 to replace the batteries or an ice vehicle with an engine with
150,000 miles on it but still full range and if the engine fails a $2000-$3000
engine rebuild price some day. If I am strapped for cash and trying to feed my
family I know what I would do.

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WorldMaker
The difference in cost between a battery replacement and an engine rebuild is
partly market dynamics (our good old friends supply and demand). As more used
electric cars enter the market, presumably the supply of replacement battery
options increases and with it prices should theoretically drop.

Similarly, there's a possible inflection point where ICE engine rebuild demand
drops low enough that some of the very specialized ICE engine parts start to
jump in price.

> an electric car with 1/2 the range it had new

This seems a particularly pessimistic assumption given current information.
(It's generally fair for the small batteries in a laptop or phone, but cars
seem to be trending much better than "half".) The used market seems to be
seeing 70% as the "low" figure and actively temperature managed batteries
(such as GM's, recent Tesla's, very recent Nissan's) as much as 90%+ range
entering the used market. Admittedly, sample sizes are still relatively low
because overall electric vehicles seem to have longer than ICE average "first
owner" lives (which makes comparing the EV and ICE used markets right now a
bit more apples and oranges than people realize).

