

Will Netflix Destroy the Internet? - edw519
http://www.slate.com/id/2273314?nav=wp

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plorkyeran
It's more likely to save the Internet by forcing infrastructure upgrades
rather than letting things stagnate forever with the justification that only
pirate need more bandwidth.

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mattmaroon
So in your opinion cable companies (and phone companies that are now also
offering competing television services) will upgrade their internet offerings
so you can better enjoy Netflix, a service that makes their primary offering
less valuable?

It's pretty clear from the incentive structure here that it's going to have
the exact opposite effect of what you suggested. It's going to make them
institute bandwidth caps and/or hike prices.

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cullenking
Cable companies will probably start first by caching items regionally, and
using that regional cache. They already do this on some level, but I don't
think on the 4gb movie level.

I agree though - they will be competing directly against companies like
netflix. Maybe they'll come out with their own franchised netflix style
streaming system?

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mhb
Maybe Netflix will partner with Google to use some of its local storage.

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ryandvm
Agreed. This is a sensationalist headline to a non-problem.

What surprises me though is that Netflix is pushing so much data given how
poor their streaming library is. I'm a Netflix subscriber and I watch a few a
month (the kids watch it much more), but just imagine how much of the Internet
traffic they're going to account for when they are finally able to stream
their entire catalog (which is what they want to do)...

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smackfu
The TV streaming library is pretty great though. And a season of TV is much
longer than a single movie.

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ihumanable
I still can not fathom the thinking that leads to this:

"This was Netflix's first venture outside of the United States, and because
the company wasn't offering its traditional DVD-by-mail plan to Canadians, its
prospects seemed questionable. How many people would pay $7.99 per month
(Canadian) for the chance to watch Superbad whenever they wanted?

A lot, it turns out."

PROSPECTS SEEMED QUESTIONABLE?! Really, because people wouldn't be able to
wait at their mailboxes for a whole day waiting for a tiny sip of media and
instead can instantly watch a huge library... how does this make sense? It
would be like if Google had 2 options, snail-mail you the results printed on a
piece of paper or normal website google, and everyone was fretting that they
couldn't get the snail-mail option.

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allenp
Netflix has some pretty decent tech-chops, so they probably took a good look
at the number of discs subscribers were getting and comparing that to the
amount of on-demand used to figure out the percentage of subscribers who were
close to 100% on-demand only and going from there.

It isn't like it they just blindly said, "hey let's try this." It could also
be the writer trying to add some drama to an otherwise straightforward part of
the story.

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achew22
No

I will add a little more detail. When Netflix starts sending enough data
through standard connections that they start to cripple the internet, they
will set up peering agreements and run direct line to the front door of every
ISP. If you don't think that is possible look at Google who has peering
agreements with everyone except tier 1. We will be fine, the sky isn't falling
and no, this is not the end of the world. Not even close.

~~~
wmf
Peering reduces load on the backbone, but not on the middle or last mile which
is where I think congestion is predicted to appear. Only the broadband ISPs
can upgrade there.

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jamesaguilar
Articles like these make me want to say, "No, of course not, next question."
Economics works well in cases like this: people will pay more for working
service, which makes it viable for companies to charge more for the service if
they need to do so to keep it working. Or Netflix itself will pay by
collocating caches near users and not using backbone bandwidth as much. Either
way, it's certainly nothing to stress out about.

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zwieback
In articles like this we always hear how expensive and slow our broadband is.

Are there any good sources comparing the real cost of broadband
internationally?

When I was a kid in Germany you had to pay a fee to have a phone and local
calls were not free. You also had to pay a fee to have a TV or radio and there
were no private stations. Although both the phone and broadcast industry have
completely changed I'd like to know what the real total cost is once you add
up fees and taxes for countries with larger government involvement in daily
life than the US.

Of course our local monopolies act similar to the government run in other
countries and sometimes do a poorer job of it.

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micheljansen
I think what's interesting about this article is not the whole "Netflix will
destroy the Internet" scenario, but the numbers about the relative size of
Netflix vs. Bittorrent traffic (which is generally, though incorrectly,
presumed to consist of pirated video). It certainly sheds a new light on what
companies like Comcast have been shouting for so long about Bittorrent
traffic. Even more interesting, from a business perspective, is that paid
content can apparently overtake (supposedly) pirated content in no time.

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sabat
_Will Netflix Destroy the Internet? American broadband capacity might not be
able to keep up with everyone who wants to stream movies._

Blogga, please. If it can't, then (as others have pointed out) the
infrastructure will have to grow. It should have already -- it's just that
companies are busy protecting their monopolies.

