
Betting Big on Literary Newcomers - T-A
http://www.wsj.com/articles/betting-big-on-literary-newcomers-1447880214
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ChuckFrank
Big advances kill houses. That's the way it's been, and that's the way it's
going to be. But in an increasing winner take-all, buyers won't care. They
need the win and they'll lose their shirts trying to get it.

The success of The Windup Girl killed Night Shade Books, because it upped
their advances in an attempt to replicate its success.

You can see the same thing happening with the studio summer blockbusters.
Everyone appears to be voting to bet-it-all, with losses almost crushing the
studios.

I'm not sure what the moral here is except, don't do it. Don't buy into it.
Big bets don't make big wins. Wins make wins. And fate is fickle as to where
they come from.

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jorleif
This seems closely related to PG's essay Black Swan farming: "there is
probably at most one company in each YC batch that will have a significant
effect on our returns, and the rest are just a cost of doing business"

It seems that for the publishers as well, rather than betting big on a few
predicted winners, they could bet small on a large number of authors with big
potential in the best case.

