
Brexit wins. An illusion dies - youngtaff
https://medium.com/mosquito-ridge/brexit-wins-an-illusion-dies-b60b6efad2d7#.crbik48mx
======
anonyfox
As an european I think the Brexit is actually beneficial for us in the
middle/longterm.

\- International companies will move from GB to ireland/continent, germany is
in a good position to capture the financial industry (Frankfurt), Berlin
already is a great startup hub.

\- the brexit is a strong signal for the other EU states to get their shit
together and fix obvious problems.

\- its in the interest of all EU states to be as hard as possible when
negotiating with britain and outright damage them when possible. No politican
will say this loud, though, but it will happen. "Out is out". Harsh
consequences will make other states think twice before considering an exit,
too. thus, stability.

\- The british economy will collapse completely, they are by far not that
important globally. The pound already goes down dramatically, trade partners
have been EU states mostly who will get doctrined from brussels to punish GB.
We do not need anything that _must_ be imported from the UK. Short-term EU
companies operating on GB will suffer, though. But this will be overshadowed
through the international focus on continental europe instead of UK/London
after a while.

\- the US already said that the UK isn't very important and are not very eager
to make deals separately. And we do no longer have to deal with "special care"
for british wishes, which often are the cause of endless discussions and
bureaucracy.

\- Scotland and n.Ireland may "exit" the UK, further minorizing the role of
the UK in the world. Might be possible that they join the EU independently.

So all in all, this may be good news for the EU, even when we sacrifice a
generation of UK citizens for our benefit. Maybe in a few decades a
demolished, isolated england will try to get into the EU again.

Still, it makes me said, since I really enjoyed my stays in London and would
prefer a big, strong, united europe.

~~~
koralatov

        > this may be good news for the EU, even when we
        > sacrifice a generation of UK citizens for our benefit.
    

As a British citizen, I'm appalled by the sentiment expressed here. It flies
in the face of the ideas and values upon which the EU was founded. I'm not
going to say anything beyond that.

~~~
ianstallings
As an American what shocks me is the accusations of racism, the anger, and the
outright attacks on the British. Talk about fair-weather friends.

~~~
tluyben2
Yes, the outright attacks are not ok but if you look at the more vocal parts
of the British Brexit voters a lot clearly have racist motivations. People I
considered almost friends posted on Facebook about throwing all Muslims out
after brexit, blaming foreigners in general for a lot that is wrong. Things
like: 'it has gone too far, I feel like I live in Islamabad here! OUT!'. These
people voted for the Brexit to refuse and throw out foreigners. In their minds
anyway. So it is not strange as that is what people see.

There are many who voted for other reasons but those are far less vocal.

~~~
return0
It was expected that racists would vote for brexit loudly anyway. The problem
is why everyone else, and especially what you would consider moderate people
voted against EU (which is not really a vote against immigration; and it will
barely stop it)

------
digi_owl
Frankly to get a grips with it all it may be best to split both the left and
the right in two.

Social left and worker left.

traditionalist right and financial right.

EU has been a boon for financial right, by flagging it as a project for
european peace and understanding to the social left.

But this has alienated social left from worker left, who they were close
allies with after WW2.

So instead the worker left has teamed up with traditionalist right, who share
their distrust of EU but for different reasons.

~~~
Singletoned
You may have already seen it, but the 4 sections you describe are very similar
to this:
[https://www.politicalcompass.org/](https://www.politicalcompass.org/)

The basic idea is that there are two axises, not one (social and financial).

~~~
carapat_virulat
I think those kinds of plots only make sense when you lay more or less in the
middle. A political position is not just how you position yourself in an
objective predeterminate political space but also how you define that
political space.

~~~
digi_owl
Like how most of what is seen as right wing in the European nations, is seen
as left wing in USA?

------
TorKlingberg
I wonder what this will mean for the London tech scene. A LOT of people there
are from other EU countries. I will affect the American giants too. Google and
others have big development centres in London where it is easy to attract top
talent from around Europe. They could re-focus to Ireland or Germany, but it
will be harder to make people move there for a job.

~~~
mhuffman
Why can't the UK have open borders to skilled immigrants and not so open to
unskilled immigrants?

I do not believe the UK is going to crack down on tech engineers and phds that
want to work in their country.

~~~
TorKlingberg
> Why can't the UK have open borders to skilled immigrants and not so open to
> unskilled immigrants?

You would have the extra friction of proving to the UK government that you are
skilled. There would probably be a requirement for formal education, so self-
taught programmers are in trouble.

I admit I am speaking in my own interest here, as a Swedish person living and
working in the UK. When I got a job here I just packed up my stuff and moved.
I showed my passport to the border machine and that was it.

If I needed a skilled worker visa, I would probably have had to pay a
certified translator to translate my diploma, send in both translation and
original, and hope they send them back. Do the same thing for a dozen other
documents. The employer would need to submit something, which may be fine for
Google but harder for a startup. Then wait for months, because the home office
has no incentive to be quick.

------
jacquesm
> A large section of the working class, concentrated in towns and cities that
> have been quietly devastated by free-market economics, decided they’d had
> enough.

As if if the UK had _not_ been an EU member the last 30 years the situation
would have been better.

At least so far they had some advantages (presence of the financial district,
easy access to a large market), those will disappear too.

The end result could very well be a _much_ worse situation for those voting
'leave' when the ones voting 'remain' will see a relatively small effect.

~~~
intended
It will most definitely be worse.

The phyrric victory possible here is that Brexit leads the way for other
exits, sundering the EU resulting in worse economies everywhere.

------
kfk
It is amazing how we have been enjoying healthy growth and improvements
everywhere in the last 100 years and people still think there is something to
fight against "neoliberism". You don't trust a system where multiple agents
are free to decide with capitalism, but you think everything will be solved
with 1 agent ruling them all with a super Leviathan state. He doesn't want to
be compared to fascists, but that's exactly along the lines a fascist would
think. I don't know, personally, I am going to try and get German citizenship,
at least those guys are somewhat reliable and don't do pointless referendums
(because you think something is going to change? No, all will stay exactly the
same, but at least you can feel happy at the thought of not being a EU state,
I guess).

~~~
krzrak
Sometimes not being an EU state is not something to be happy about. For
example now Poland is being taken over by right-wing party, which reduces
citizen rights, violates constitution, oppresses minorities, removes the
separation of the state and church. There are voices that we should leave the
EU. But European Union and its framework is the only institution that from
time to time keeps them at bay. When we leave EU, we are lost, the regime will
be able to do anything.

~~~
ManlyBread
>Poland is being taken over by right-wing party

Funny, two years ago everyone here was calling them a left-wing party.

>reduces citizen rights, violates constitution

They haven't done anything that the previous party didn't, but since the
previous party lost this election the very same people who did it for the
previous 8 years suddenly act like they have the moral high ground.

>oppresses minorities

Not wanting uncontrolled immigration is not "oppressing minorities".

>removes the separation of the state and church

This has never been as severe as people like to claim, even back in 2006.

~~~
toyg
_> Not wanting uncontrolled immigration_

So you don't want what your country benefited dramatically from in the last 15
years, when Polish people moved to UK to work, sending home additional capital
and reducing demographic pressure. I apologize if this sounds inflammatory,
it's not meant to but: it is, objectively, a very hypocritical position.

~~~
ManlyBread
That was in regards to the immigrants that Merkel tried to push on us.

~~~
gambiting
The EU parliment had a meeting where basically what was said was "this is a
huge issue, everyone should help by taking some" and then Polish government
decided to get on a high horse and not accept anyone. It flies directly in the
face of united Europe and I really hate what they(the government) are doing.

~~~
ManlyBread
Are you really surprised that the when there are so many reports about
immigrants causing problems for the countries that take them in? No one here
wants an another Cologne.

And I find it really amusing that you talk about "united Europe" in the
context of non-European immigrants. It is not okay for one country to cause a
huge wave of immigration and then basically going "we can't take these people
in so you have to and do it unconditionally" \- which only encourages even
more immigration.

~~~
gambiting
Those people arrive at EU shores, therefore they are EU's problem. If they
arrived at Polish shores(as unlikely as that is) Poland would be asking for
support of the rest of EU as well.

~~~
ManlyBread
>Those people arrive at EU shores, therefore they are EU's problem.

Can't argue with that, but this doesn't mean EU has to take these people in,
neither it gives them the right to enter the EU. Several dozen years ago these
people would get their boats sunk.

~~~
gambiting
And 100 years ago they maybe would even be shot - problem solved! Fortunately
we live in a civilization that is much better and we don't treat people in
need like shit. At least I hope we don't. If someone is genuinely escaping
from war, they should be given shelter, I hope there is no discussion about
this.

~~~
ManlyBread
The "genuinely escaping" is the key word here. Many of them had an option to
stay in Turkey and they didn't because they thought that in Europe they will
get more things for free.

I really recommend watching "With Open Gates" on Youtube and listening to what
the immigrants have to say. If the picture of immigrants in the video is the
reality, then the government made a very good decision by not taking these
people in.

------
sametmax
From a French perspective, I'd like to state again that everybody is talking
about the economical EU, but forget it's only one of the side of it.

For me the main benefit is that my grand father has a tatoo with a number on
his wrist, but my brother is in a loving relationship with a blue-eye blond
german.

No matter how you slice it, peace is a very nice think too have in an instable
world with so many different people living so close to each others.

------
paulgrimes1
I'm from Ireland. The potential reinstating of "the border" in the north of
Ireland, effectively rebuilding a physical wall based on the outcome of this
brexit, is a concern. The psychological effect it will have on Ireland as a
people will be tectonic.

~~~
s_kilk
[also Irish, currently living in Scotland]

Off the top of your head, what do you think the odds of this turning into a
United Ireland would be?

Surely both sides of the border would rather unify than go along with this
madness? Or am I dreaming?

~~~
paulgrimes1
I recall having very heated disagreements with a friend years ago; she
believed Ireland would unite in our lifetime, I believed the idea itself was
too young for anyone to take seriously. Maybe this is the catalyst needed to
advance the conversation.

A United Ireland in our lifetime would be heart-explodingly amazing; however
just as the UK voted Leave, Northern Ireland could well vote Stay.

~~~
k-mcgrady
>> "Maybe this is the catalyst needed to advance the conversation."

I've said this in another comment but I think it is. We now have an issue that
will effect all the people in the North and is more important than the usual
sectarian divide. If border controls come into place and it starts to effect
people's daily lives (e.g. People living in border counties and working on the
other side) there's actual a real debate to be had for once. A border poll has
already been called for this morning but of course the secretary of state has
dismissed it. I think Scotland will need to vote for independence before
Ireland has a shot at it.

~~~
paulgrimes1
Ireland's already independent.. Just perhaps not all of her ;)

The sad thing about the possibility of a real debate is that those proposing
the unification still have literal blood on their hands. The conversation
morphs from those proposing unification to being _about_ those proposing the
idea, and how they've been involved in horrific violence not-so-many years
ago. The point of the debate is lost in the mire from that point on.

I believe it'll take a generation removed of the troubles to be capable of
grasping the possibility. But I would LOVE to be proved wrong!

------
simplyinfinity
AFAIK, Brexit has won the votes, but that doesn't mean it will happen.

>Referendums are not legally binding, so legally the Government can ignore the
results; for example, even if the result of a pre-legislative referendum were
a majority of "No" for a proposed law, Parliament could pass it anyway,
because parliament is sovereign.[0]

[0]:
[https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Referendums_in_the_United_Kingdo...](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Referendums_in_the_United_Kingdom)

~~~
stuaxo
It would be electoral suicide for a government not to follow through with this
though.

~~~
simplyinfinity
I think it won't be, the margins are too close, only 2% or so. so basically
you are ignoring 48% of the people over 52% of the people... if it was
something like 30/70 that would be suicide

~~~
lucozade
The only conceivable way that a UK government can ignore this result is if the
EU comes back with a substantial offer of change including a significant
compromise on free movement. That could be used as a reason to trigger a
second referendum.

I can't see that happening though and all the rhetoric from the EU and EU
nations has been "goodbye and thanks for all the fish".

I expect the government to drag its heels for a while before it invokes
Article 50 while it sorts itself out but industry will be clamouring for
clarity so it won't drag on indefinitely.

~~~
Xylakant
> if the EU comes back with a substantial offer of change including a
> significant compromise on free movement

That's not going to happen - not because of the "gooodbye" rhetoric, but
rather because freedom of movement has been embodied as one of the core
principles of the EU. Free movement of goods and people are inseparable. This
is even laid down in the bilateral agreements with Switzerland and Norway. The
Swiss just tested the waters with the latest referendum on curbing EU-
immigration but they haven't followed through. The EU has drawn a line in the
sand here and I seriously don't expect them to concede this point.

~~~
Kristine1975
_> Free movement of goods and people are inseparable._

Only when talking about people as goods, i.e. as human resources. When talking
about people as humans, the borders inside EU are closed real quick when
there's a G8 summit et.al. and politicians want to keep protestors from other
countries out.

------
ry_ry
If the UK ceases to exist I wonder if England would be permitted to rejoin the
EU at some point?

~~~
jacquesm
That would be some pretty tough negotiations. Probably better for England to
apply to become a territory of the US.

~~~
prodmerc
That would be _just a bit_ humiliating though... never gonna happen (but you
never know either, hmm)

~~~
petercooper
Minor discussions did once occur.. [http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wilson-
wanted-uk-to-be-us-...](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wilson-wanted-uk-to-
be-us-state-1075874.html)

------
Tomte
While I'm strongly of the opinion that this decision is a bad one for the
United Kingdom, and mostly because of the economic havoc just about every
expert foresees, we shouldn't forget two things:

a) Experts are sometimes wrong. Economic experts are usually wrong.
(Personally I think they happen to be right in this case)

b) Some Brexit supporters also see the economic risks and accept them, because
of democracy, sovereignty etc. pp.

And while I'm a pragmatic who would weigh economic consequences heavily, God
damn!, I can totally respect that!

------
duncanawoods
I don't see why people are thinking businesses would move. With a weaker
pound, a UK office is cheaper to run, investment will go further and exporting
UK based products/services to the EU or US will be more competitive. If
anything UK might be more attractive for a business.

The downsides might be freedom of travel for employment but hopefully there
won't be much difference for skilled migrants. I don't believe it would get as
hard as the US.

~~~
markvdb
Any idea how many EU multinational headquarters and logistics centers the UK
has, versus Switzerland or Norway? Right...

What about financial centers?

Make no mistake. This will have a significant impact. Even my small laser
cutting service company in Riga, Latvia (<shameless
plug>[https://lusis.eu</shameless](https://lusis.eu</shameless) plug>) has to
charge non-EU clients extra because of the real barriers exporting outside of
the EU.

~~~
duncanawoods
I'm interested - what precisely are the barriers you see?

~~~
markvdb
It may sound silly, but here's a few: * extra customs checks, even if there is
no customs rate * different VAT procedures from the common market * courier
and postal services delivering strictly within the EU, or charging a premium
for dealing with the barriers of delivering outside of it

Apart from that, anecdotally, even within the EU, we noticed that UK customers
were strangely much less informed about SEPA bank transfers (between €
accounts, within EFTA) than even non-EU EFTA members.

------
the_mitsuhiko
I'm not entirely sure how what is being discussed in the article has anything
to do with the EU. Surely that same problem applies in the absence of the EU
and its replacement just as much.

------
fscherer
could anyone elaborate why exactly the referendum was mostly a vote on
migration? I myself think that view (which is the basis of the article) is too
limited

~~~
jbb555
It wasn't. The press just decided to present it this way. It was a vote on
sovereignty of the UK of which control on migration was one small part.

------
bawana
WOW! GB left the EU and they did not even need to elect a communist party or
have Varoufakis mouthing off. Maybe Greece should grow a pair and go now too.
Maybe join GB.

~~~
thinkMOAR
Right.... after they refund all the billions from the recent support packages
from the EU....

------
nicotonico
It baffles me to say it's negative to be hypocritical in that regard.

My position in these cases is simple: I want what's best for me and my people
and fuck the rest.

Europe has had a history of pointless and toxic altruism that has lead us to
this point. Think of the refugee crisis for example. The "all humans are equal
regardless of where they were born" and the "please I'd do whatever it takes
so people don't label me as a racist" rubbish has ruined our culture.

~~~
AlexandrB
> My position in these cases is simple: I want what's best for me and my
> people and fuck the rest.

Sorry, but this shit right here is what's ruining your culture.

~~~
ManlyBread
Why? Everyone else is doing the same thing

