

Tech Bubble 2.0? I don't think so - dtyleryork
http://davidtyleryork.tumblr.com/post/4420599941/there-is-no-bubble

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kovar
1) "But as you already know, I am here to argue that this is not in fact a
bubble."

So get on with it. Dump the first two paragraphs.

2) "First of all, most of the overheating is going on in private markets, and
there are only a few companies that are considering IPOs that all have
billions in revenue. Many posts have already been made to this effect, so I
wont repeat them here."

How does this support your conclusion that we're not in a bubble?

3) "While the number of new startups has increased dramatically, their overall
quality has not been significantly harmed."

Supporting evidence? You make this statement and then don't support it.

You didn't really convince me of anything, and didn't leave me feeling any
more informed on the issue.

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dtyleryork
1) Fair enough. I just liked setting up the story. 2) Well, I didn't define
this in the article, but my definition of a bubble is a collapse of liquidity
due to over-valuation and outright failure of companies. In this case, I don't
feel like the over-valuation is as dangerous because the few startups that IPO
will be successful, profitable companies for a long time. Also, companies that
are likely to outright fail are much less likely to IPO nowadays. 3) I should
have included more outright evidence, but just look at the tweets from
#500Strong and '500Startups Demo Day' yesterday. They give very positive
feedback about the companies launching there, and this is par for the course
nowadays. Upwards of 20 companies launch at a given incubator's launch day (YC
now has over 40), and almost always they are lauded more than criticized.

Thanks for the comments. This was great feedback.

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kovar
I wrote a post recently about fragmentation in the digital forensics
community. One of the issues I raised was that we're less willing to call
people, or companies, out for bad behavior, poor execution, etc. Is there any
chance this is also true at launch days?

Are there any statistics on how those 20 companies are doing 30, 60, and 90
days out? If they had to present again to the same crowd 90 days later, how
would they fare?

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dtyleryork
No idea, and that is a good point. I doubt all of these companies end up
succeeding.

That said, I think that the majority of them simply lose their investors
money, so it's not going to harm the economy at large.

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dtyleryork
Looking forward to comments! please leave them here :)

