

Survey: 44% of Verizon Android users likely to switch to iPhone on Day One - dot
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/02/05/survey-44-of-verizon-android-users-likely-to-switch-to-iphone-on-day-one/

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w1ntermute
> _We're not familiar with the work of uSamp_ , a high-tech online research
> firm based in Los Angeles, but if the results of the survey they released
> last week are accurate...

Good to see Fortune doing their journalistic duty and checking the integrity
of their sources.

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fnl
Would anybody mind to actually read the table and numbers? At the very bottom
of the tiny table, in the second-last row: After all considerations, people
that would still switch ("No, I still plan to switch") is 21% (Ad) and 28%
(BB) - that is one quarter in total, at best, and definitely not 44%... And
even then, the sample size of those people in total are 87 users; Just how
representative is that? What a joke...

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kbutler
Idea: Require survey pushers to place <http://www.longbets.org/> before
publishing their results.

kb

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cletus
The title is incorrect. The survey is of 700 AT&T and Verizon users. Also the
44% figure comes from this:

> Among Android owners, 44% are either very likely (19%) or somewhat likely
> (25%) to buy an iPhone on Feb. 10.

Not all of these will actually do that of course but it does show there is
definite excitement about this phone, so much so that (IMHO) you will see a
noticeable impact on the Q1 smartphone shipments and I definitely think
Verizon will sell 10-20M+ of these in the first half, easily.

There is serious pent up demand for the iPhone in the US due to carrier lock-
In. To argue this won't have a significant impact is... brave.

~~~
scottkduncan
I also suspect that there will be a noticeable impact on Q1 iPhone sales but,
if this data is in fact credible at all, I would estimate the level of
interest in quickly switching to the iPhone is much closer to the 19% "very
likely" than the 44% "somewhat or very likely." Speculating about (and
unfairly generalizing) these respondents' previous decisions regarding phone
purchases makes me think they are relatively "sticky" in their purchase
decisions and will be unlikely to drop everything and get an iPhone on day 1.

Consider that when these current Verizon subscribers/Android users/iPhone
aspirers made their most recent smartphone purchase, the iPhone was already a
mature product and they likely considered two options:

1\. Stay with Verizon and get an Android phone. 2\. Switch to AT&T and get an
iPhone.

Those who are now Verizon/Android consumers all demonstrated a preference for
staying with their preferred network over adopting the iPhone, indicating a
(relatively) weaker preference for the iPhone compared to similar customers
who switched at that point to AT&T. Those who switched were more likely to
have made a disruptive decision to terminate an existing contract early,
whereas those staying with Verizon likely made a status quo choice to stay
with their current provider. Opting to stay with Verizon and play the "wait-
and-see" game on the iPhone, those claiming to be "somewhat likely" to switch
to the iPhone have already considered making the switch once and chose not to.
I find it unlikely that these consumers will be turning out in massive numbers
on day 1 to get an iPhone.

All of this is not intended to question that releasing the iPhone on Verizon
does pose a challenge to Android. I simply believe that the massive flight to
iPhones is not a fait accompli and will play out over the course of several
months or a year, rather than on February 10. This suggests that the makers of
Android devices have a short window in which to improve their competitive
posture, in the form of more aggressive pricing or new products with better
features, in the few months after the Verizon rollout.

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JoeAltmaier
My friend Tom has 11 cell phones. He's a gadget nut. How many of those 44% are
going to "switch"? Or just buy another phone.

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whatusername
"online research firm" hmmm...

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joshu
already ordered mine!

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ergo98
Another day, another survey by a company desperate to get attention by
defensive Apple fans. Sad how well the tactic works.

So I guess Android is done then. Lets shut her down! Or we could just wait and
see how it pans out.

~~~
ugh
Don’t you think you are kinda sorta defensive there?

~~~
ergo98
Do you think I am?

I find these surveys in all their forms to be _garbage_ , whatever the
purported outcome is. They're almost always online (because it's no-name, no-
budget survey companies), self-selecting surveys, and they seldom have any
relationship to reality. Lazy bloggers use it to fluff up coverage.

Funny that the Fortune guy posted it given that I called him out for a prior
one - <http://blog.yafla.com/Lazy_Surveys_Enable_A_Lazy_Press/>

I have demolished more surveys than I care to explain. I just have lost the
desire to point out how naive people are for falling for this nonsense again,
and again, and again.

But again -- let's revisit it in a couple of months, after those millions of
Android users have switched.

~~~
ugh
You sure are.

The survey is in all likelihood garbage (i.e. doesn’t tell us anything about
how successful or unsuccessful the iPhone will be on Verizon), we don’t even
have to talk about that. I’m talking about you saying “ […] defensive Apple
fans. Sad how well the tactic works.”

Why do you need to write crap like that?

~~~
ergo98
These surveys pander to a certain audience. Just had to check, and sure enough
it's on Apple Insider, just as it will be or already is on most Apple-related
blogs. These survey companies skip the middle man and often target the Apple
community directly, because it is certain attention. The Apple community is
simply too addicted to these things, with no discretion or filter.

We've had survey, after survey, after survey, foretelling doom and gloom for
Android. All while actual metrics have shown it gaining marketshare by leaps
and bounds. If I have to pick between reality and "what a self-selected group
picks on an online form, usually to get offered a $5 Amazon certificate or the
like", I'll choose the former.

My observation stands. Just noticed that the original poster has the email
address "iphone". Indeed.

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shareme
these surveys are meaning-less

What the actual number you have to care about is new subscribers. New
subscribers to AT&T for iphone 4 was less than 10% last quarter.

Carriers will always choose those devices that they 'think' can give a new
subscribers rate boost, hence Nokia failing in the US for some time with out-
of-date-ui.

If Verizon iphone results in 10% or more new subscribers than Verizon made the
right decision as they still will than have the new subscriber rate from
android sales as well. If the rate does not get higher than 10% than Verizon
iPhone move is a loss for Verizon counting the subsidies it pays to Apple.

Conversely AT&T will now use android to increase their new subscriber rates.

Also, in that mix android has LTE devices coming and Apple still has not
launched an LTE iphone.

~~~
ugh
_“What the actual number you have to care about is new subscribers.”_

Is that from the carriers perspective or is that also the number Apple and
Google care about? Doesn’t seem like it, does it?

Also, 10 percent more compared to what?

