

Tim Draper: Now's the 'best time' to start a business - GVRV
http://news.cnet.com/8301-17939_109-10250521-2.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20

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swombat
I feel devastated. Everyone keeps writing articles about how now is the best
time to start a business (this must be the third of fourth I've read in the
last month).

But I've already started my business a couple of years ago! If now is the time
to start a business, as everyone keeps repeating over and over again, should I
kill my current business and start a new one?

After all, if my current business succeeds, I will not be able to get the
accolade that it was _started_ in a recession. Does that impact my business's
chances of becoming a GE or Coca-Cola? After all, my current business was
started _just before_ a recession, so it probably doesn't count.

All in all, I'm extremely confused by all this advice about it being the
_best_ time to start a business now. Were any successful businesses started
outside of recessions? Did anyone do some statistical analysis to figure out
whether they'd have had a better chance if they had waited for a recession to
start?

Perhaps everyone should optimise their business starting time to find the
_best_ time to start a business.

Or maybe the question of whether there is a recession when you start your
business has very little correlation with whether or not your business will be
successful. Just maybe. In which case, what are all these "best time to start
a business" people trying to sell us?

~~~
herval
Does the article say that if you didn't start your business during a recession
you will fail?

"if A then B" doesn't imply in "if C then not B", as far as logic goes...

~~~
swombat
Well, you know, starting a business is hard enough as it is - wouldn't want to
do it at the wrong time. Best to find out what the "best" time is and do it
then, right?

~~~
herval
exactly -- timing usually plays a very important role on most things in life -
getting to business is definitely one of them...

launch products too soon and you'll be maybe too much ahead of your time to
sustain a business without sales until it picks up. Launch it too late and the
market will be flooded already.

