
Coronavirus: Early estimate of epidemiology and epidemic predictions [pdf] - contingencies
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1.full.pdf
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skmurphy
report appears to be as of jan-23, key findings:

We are still in the early days of this outbreak and there is much uncertainty
in both the scale of the outbreak, as well as key epidemiological information
regarding transmission. However, the rapidity of the growth of cases since the
recognition of the outbreak is much greater than that observed in outbreaks of
either SARS or MERS-CoV. This is consistent with our higher estimates of the
reproductive number for this outbreak compared to these other emergent
coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be
substantially more difficult.

We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (𝑅𝑅0) to be
significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0.

We estimated that the ascertainment rate in Wuhan is 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5),
reflecting the difficulty in identifying cases of a novel pathogen. Given the
generally good accessibility to healthcare in China, this suggests that the
majority of infections may be mild and insufficiently serious for individuals
to seek treatment. However, it is worth noting that a number of identified
cases have died (Centre for Disease Control and Prevention 2020) and that the
true case fatality rate has yet to be estimated accurately. We also estimated
the size of the epidemic in Wuhan at the time of the market closure to be 24
individuals (95%CI, 22–25).

We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are
identified, indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also
reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance
for this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health
authorities in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase
of cases in Wuhan and other areas.

