
160k+ students will only graduate if a statistical model allows them to - ishan_dikshit
http://positivelysemidefinite.com/2020/06/160k-students.html
======
hvinayak1968
Very Well Researched and written.Your analysis points out the outcome pitfalls
that IB and other educational institutions should consider and correct for.

Here are some of the additional views to consider, based on my sense of data
flow thru your model:

\- the fact that your model can predict gender, race and socioeconomic status
from the historical grades is rightly pointing out that today grades are
indeed strongly (and very unfortunately) correlated with these extra-
curricular environmental variables. This is a well established fact and many
social programs have been designed in an effort to flatten this bias.

\- so unless the model takes its own predictions and loops it back as X
variables, it should not reinforce the bias. The model accurately predicts
along the pattern of social bias that is Actually present today.

\- If we are bold enough we can decide thru this model to introduce counter
biases (feedback loop) against these factors so that we level the playing
field and truly measure the raw intellect and not the Environmentally
conditioned intellect - but that is debate for another time!

All in all a great research and write up - wake up call to folks who Blindly
assume predictions for truth! I will wait for your next part - “how do we
correct for these biases”! Harsh Vinayak

------
mail2kakoo
Fantastic effort in asking the question and raising awareness. Hopefully the
universities would consider the shortcomings of the process for the IB results
to base their decisions.

------
pankajk1
Loved the animated GIF of "the model" literally falling!

The coronavirus has thrown a lot of curveballs and each has sent impacted
groups looking for answers. As OP correctly concludes, there are no good
answers. Only worse and bad ones.

Besides the original problem, the OP's analysis is well presented and brings
out the worse in this not so well thought out solution. I hope IB is listening
and is willing to adjust their model to address issues pointed out by the OP.

~~~
ishan_dikshit
Thank you - I appreciate it. Some people on another forum actually informed me
of the fact that other educational boards in the UK are planning on adopting
this exact same 'model based assessment methodology'. I do not understand why
more people aren't upset about this.

------
macsj200
It's crazy the model can learn implicit biases even when you don't supply that
data!

------
rdubey
Use of statistical model to allocate grades to students may not be fair to
many students. Models should be used for estimation and not actual allocation
of grades.

------
ali_wetrill
Wild that they're doing this - really great analysis

------
atuld
I hope they relook at the model - wouldn’t want to see people suffering due to
the wrong methods being used to grade their work.

------
anupamdutta
Great analysis...IB should definitely look to tweak the model to eliminate or
reduce the biases identified!

------
ovasilis
It is crazy to think that this is happening in the world. Very well explained!

------
arun100
Good insights on the problems and issues with what IB thought was a good
choice

------
santri2804
Explained well... loved it

------
navyadixit
Very interesting!

------
spulle1
Great article.

------
sunitayc
Nice write up

------
pujapant
Great work

------
chunmun
Well done

------
m1shti
Brilliant!

