
The Good Judgement Project - rfreytag
http://goodjudgment.com/gjp/
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jessriedel
FYI, the leader of the Good Judgement Project is Philip Tetlock, who many
consider the world expert on concrete techniques for forecasting complicated
future events.

> The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is a project "harnessing the wisdom of the
> crowd to forecast world events". It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock
> (author of Superforecasting and of Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is
> It? How Can We Know?), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore. It
> was a participant in the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program of
> the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) in the United
> States. Predictions are scored using Brier scores. The top forecasters in
> GJP are "reportedly 30% better than intelligence officers with access to
> actual classified information."

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Judgment_Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Judgment_Project)

