
Herd immunity thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 estimated from unfolding epidemics - AndrewBissell
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v2
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4cao
From the abstract:

> Our inferences result in herd immunity thresholds around 10-20%,
> considerably lower than the minimum coverage needed to interrupt
> transmission by random vaccination, which for R0 higher than 2.5 is
> estimated above 60%. We emphasize that the classical formula, 1-(1/R0),
> remains applicable to describe herd immunity thresholds for random
> vaccination, but not for immunity induced by infection which is naturally
> selective.

> These findings have profound consequences for the governance of the current
> pandemic given that some populations may be close to achieving herd immunity
> despite being under more or less strict social distancing measures.

There are some comments for an earlier version of the paper, discussing
methodology:
[https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v...](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1?versioned=true#disqus_thread)

