
Global, U.S. Growth in Smartphone Growth Starts to Decline - TheAuditor
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/12/global-u-s-growth-in-smartphone-growth-starts-to-decline.html
======
forkLding
To summarize this very long article:

Essentially smartphones are entering the laptop stages of ubiquity and market
saturation and making people wonder whats next. Smartphones are also losing
their wow factor and just becoming another "commodity".

People are also finding less reason to replace their smartphones and replace
cycles are getting longer.

The only double-digit growth is in the lower priced segments in developing
nations and whats stopping Apple and other giants is their reluctance to
dilute their premium branding.

~~~
whatshisface
> _smartphones are entering the laptop stages of ubiquity_

That might actually be an understatement, there are many poor people with
phones but no computer. Laptops, as hopeless of a market as they seem like
they are, at least have some hope of moving down-market to the new ground
Google is after with the Chromebook.

~~~
forkLding
Thats true, haven't been paying enough attention to laptop market

------
Nasrudith
Really when it comes to smart phones the things I would want are things not
offered by most. \- Stop being phobic about thickness already and make it
durable. Nearly everyone has a case on it anyway which makes it farcical. \-
Boost battery life. \- Easily accessible SD card, include service doors for a
change, stop dropping features like headphone jacks. I admit to being niche
but I think at this point improvements in the peripheral aspects are what
could move people in addition to anything and even if they got every little
niche people wanted it probably wouldn't keep the market from saturating
without adding major new functionality.

~~~
yroc92
At least on Apple's part, their phones have been getting thicker since the
iPhone 6 and I'd say battery life is improving with each generation,
especially when you consider the growth in activity occuring on the device
since that generation.

~~~
torgian
Though durability is worse; everything is glass now.

------
nabla9
Norvig's Law:

Any technology that surpasses 50% penetration will never double again (in any
number of months).

[http://norvig.com/norvigs-law.html](http://norvig.com/norvigs-law.html)

------
mark_l_watson
Just a comment on Apple: they might be positioning the Apple Watch as their
next ‘big product.’ I bought one for myself, then one for several family
members and we all love them.

In an age when too many people stare at their phone in social situations,
having a watch that handle calls, emails, text messaging, and simple apps -
but, is not something you engage with for long periods of time. I usually
don;t use my phone on weekends anymore. The Apple Watch keeps me connected but
in a way that doesn’t pull at my attention.

------
sonnyblarney
I'm offended by these now $1K iPhone models, I'm getting off that train.

I want a tiny phone to do sms and emails. The only thing I might miss is maps
... but that could even be done on a smaller phone if Google removed all that
crap from the screen as we try to use their maps ...

~~~
clumsysmurf
I'm still hoping for a $250-$350 USD Android device that has

* a headphone jack

* removable battery

* 4 years of updates

* no installed software except Play Store

* no modifications to stock AOSP.

As you mentioned, I would install maps, mail and be done with it.

~~~
detaro
Aren't Android One phones at least close to that?

~~~
clumsysmurf
The Lumia 6.1 comes close, unfortunately got poor reviews. Do you have any
other suggestions?

~~~
klipt
I have a Nokia 6.1 (Android One) that I like. It does have a couple of quirks
though (which show up every few days and disappear after a reboot).

------
iammiles
I don't think there's much reason to upgrade these days. Years ago I would
instantly notice the crisper screen resolution, the nicer photos, and overall
snappiness of a new phone. Granted my current phone (Pixel 2) is only a year
old, but I can't imagine what I would upgrade to or for what reason.

~~~
Waterluvian
I would upgrade with the zeal of a fanboy for one reason:

A phone that could be plugged into a usb C hub and instantly I have a running
full Ubuntu desktop environment with all of my phone's data in the right
places.

I know there's some partial attempts at this out there but I'm talking the
full thing with Apple levels of quality and polish.

~~~
crispyporkbites
You'd think everyone wants this but in reality hardly anyone would actually
use it.

Imagine you want to go to a coffee shop, go sit somewhere else in your house,
go to meeting someplace, get on a plane, go to an office etc.

There's no hubs, screens, keyboards etc. in these places so you'd be stuck
with a phone. You're effectively much much less mobile than a laptop, only
incrementally more than having a desktop at home.

Perhaps if hubs / screens became ubiquitous everywhere (maybe apple can do
that) it would be useful.

~~~
njarboe
I would want this. This is basically how I use my laptop. My computer I use
both at home and at work and plugged into extra monitors, keyboard, mouse,
headphones, internet, power, etc at both locations. On the road it is nice to
have a screen and keyboard, so if my computer was my smartphone I would have
to carry a little screen and key board (I already carry a mouse). I wonder if
such an inexpensive screen exists not attached to a computer like an iPad or
tablet.

------
moonka
Since I got my first HTC EVO, I've eagerly upgraded phones every two years,
and frequently every one. Now I'm 2 years into my pixel one, and don't see a
phone worth upgrading too. Between rising prices and the way it feels each
recent phone has removed features I'm in no rush.

~~~
hahla
This makes me wonder. I bought an iPhone X outright and didn’t mind the
original cost. But I will not be upgrading to the iPhone XS. They were able to
get me to cross the $1,000 phone barrier but it almost has a negative effect
because I would traditionally not blink twice upgrading every year at the
previous price point.

~~~
untog
Well, will you upgrade next year? If so, not a dramatic difference between
$1000 every two years and $500 every one year.

After I saw the announcement for the XS I immediately bought a used iPhone SE.
$160 for a 64GB model. Even if it only lasts me a year (it won't get iOS 13,
which I may or may not care about) the value for money is astronomical
compared to Apple's current offerings.

~~~
ummonk
Wait, why won't it get iOS 13? Or are you saying "if it doesn't get iOS 13, it
may only last a year"?

It seems highly unlikely that Apple will drop the 6S and SE with iOS 13.

~~~
davidgould
I don't know, but I believe the reason iPhones get dropped from support is not
calendar years, but rather architectural change. That is, the 32 bit to 64 bit
transition dropped the old 32 bit phones after a while. So unless there is a
major architectural shift I don't see why they would drop the 6s and SE.

------
sys_64738
New fad. Lots of sales. Market saturation. People realizing they don't need
nor want the latest and greatest so don't. Market declines.

There's nothing new here we've not seen many times before.

------
bjoli
I made a commitment 2013 to only buy repairable phones. 5 years later my
fairphone finally died (tbh, I had been wanting that for quite some time) and
Motorola's vow to provide official parts for its phones made me go with them.
The reason to buy the latest and greatest has never been smaller.

~~~
dev_dull
To me the risk is not hardware repairability, it’s lack of timely security
updates and long term support of them.

Outside of iPhones are there any phones on the market that get 5+ years of
fast security updates?

~~~
opencl
The only way you are going to get 5+ years of fast security updates outside of
iPhones is unofficial Android ROMs such as LineageOS. My 6 year old Nexus 4
still gets updates that way.

~~~
thaumasiotes
On the other hand, my release-year Nexus 4 started experiencing battery
swelling several years ago, and I had to get rid of it.

~~~
hnuser1234
You can replace the battery on them with a screwdriver, hot air, and some
bravery to slightly bend the original battery as you rip it out. Then you can
remove the adhesive and not have to worry about doing that again, until your
next "non-replaceable battery" phone.

Considering any functional smartphone should be able to net you at least
$80-100, and the battery can be found for $5-6, not to mention the waste
electronics/recycling aspect, it seems like a smart move if you have the time
and will.

I did this with a Nexus 5, and broke a few clips on the back, but just enough
to make the back easily removable but also stays on firmly during normal use.
Now it's a regular replaceable battery phone.

~~~
thaumasiotes
I did disassemble my Nexus 5 in the hopes of getting it to boot again. (It
didn't work.)

In the process, I slashed my finger with the knife-like tiny screwdriver I was
using, hurting quite a bit and drawing blood.

I don't consider this to be something I should obviously do with all my
phones.

------
ksec
This is going to causes ripple effect in the industry. Leading Node is getting
even more expensive, it used to have an expanding base of Smartphone using
leading node for the past 5 years, sharing the cost and making them
affordable. Now it is shared by a smaller number, which means we might see
slow down on new node introduction. Luckily TSMC already has everything set
for up to 5nm in 2020. After that, not only have we reach the end of Single
Core IPC improvement, we might also have reached the end of MultiCore Count
increase.

------
eugeniub
Many parts of this article are so disingenuous. There's a smartphone decline
coming, but it's not here yet, and this article is a premature declaration
that can't substantiate itself. It starts by talking about a "smartphone
decline", then discreetly transitions to a smartphone _sales_ decline — of
only -0.3%. And this decline can be explained by, as the article puts it:
"there’s no doubt that the replacement cycle for phones is elongating".

> If you bought a new iPhone 3G in 2008, and then a new iPhone 4 in 2010, you
> were buying markedly different machines. [...] If you bought an iPhone 6 in
> 2014 and then an iPhone 7 in 2016, that expected improvement was much harder
> to mark (except, perhaps for that fact the the iPhone 7 didn’t have a 3.5mm
> headphone jack).

Yeah? What if you shifted the years 2014/2016 to 2015/2017\. Suddenly you're
comparing an iPhone 6s to an iPhone X. Arguably an even bigger leap than
iPhone 3G to iPhone 4.

~~~
drannex
Repair technician and mobile researcher, not really 2015 and 2017 internal
components are amazingly similar.

Even the screen technology, taptic engine, Audio IC, Touch IC, and more are
relatively the same — just a migration of location on the board.

The 6S screen design is even more similar to the X than I had originally
thought when I started to tear into them.

Now the switch from 3G to 4? That was some brand new engineering techniques
and internal chip sets.

~~~
eugeniub
I think you're mentioning the similarities but omitting all of the differences
— radically different design, waterproofing, face ID, wireless charging, fast
charging, etc.

------
JDiculous
Unfortunately there are no modern smartphones with a removable battery and the
Super AMOLED display screen (the screen on the Samsung Galaxy and iPhone).

Batteries are always the bottleneck here. My Samsung Galaxy S6 is at a point
where the battery lasts maybe an hour. But because the battery can't be
replaced I need to buy a new phone.

I'd get a LG V20 (most recent phone with removable battery, over 2 years old)
if not for the fact that I'm so used to that sharp AMOLED display screen that
I can't go back to an LCD screen.

I guess I'll be reluctantly buying the Samsung Galaxy S9+, but I hope the
battery isn't useless in 2-3 years forcing me to buy a new phone again like
now.

~~~
bluedino
You can’t just get the battery replaced at a phone store?

~~~
mrhappyunhappy
At least apple offers battery replacement, doesn't Samsung?

~~~
izacus
Pretty much every single phone out there can get battery replaced (might be
it's even demanded by law in some regions) - you just need to take it to any
repair shop.

------
tanilama
I am not paying 1000 for an iPhone. Period. Well start looking for budget but
good enough Chinese phones as replacement, after all 1k can buy me 2 of those

~~~
wongarsu
I think most people would define <= $100 as "budget phone". $500 is a mid-to-
high-end android.

------
patient_zero
I may be somewhat of an outlier, but I have been purchasing used phones since
my first smart phone (a Galaxy S2). That was a manufacturer refurb from my
provider. Since then I've branched out in to ebay and amazon purchased phones,
and excepting one V10 that arrived in the mail with a boot-loop issue
(resolved easily enough) I've had zero problems with them and saved hundreds
if not thousands of dollars.

~~~
limeblack
If you don't mind replacing batteries yourself or know someone sure. My
experience is the batteries especially from eBay have major issues.

~~~
patient_zero
ah, yes. I also never buy phones that dont have an easily swappable battery or
an expansion slot. Since I started looking up drop rating videos my phones
have lasted a lot longer too :)

I've not personally had an issue with buying one but of course its as much
luck as anything.

------
ramshanker
My First lasted 4 years. [2G, VGA Camera]

2nd Phone lasted 5 years. [3G, GPS, WiFi, Bluetooth, Radio, 5MP Camera]

3rd Phone 2 Years and counting. [4G, GPS, WiFi, Bluetooth, Camera + Front
Camera]

It's a simple pattern. Every new phone buy should be a major Technology
Upgrade, not just specification upgrade. So Minimum Requirement for my next
phone will be [5G]. Hopefully within next 2 years. :)

------
arthurcolle
I've always been surprised that cellular tablets didn't experience more
marketshare compared to smartphones. No one has exclusively a cellular tablet
that I know of, but frankly I'd probably ditch my smartphone for a cellular
tablet that I carry around at all times. For me, communication mostly happens
by email/text and phone calls have almost entirely been replaced by
videocalling, so in the long-run I see myself moving to just a internet-
enabled tablet of some kind. I guess the growing ubiquity of WiFi makes it
less of an issue for most people

~~~
api
Tablets are in an uncanny valley. Phones fit in your pocket and are good for
communication, brief transactional interaction with services, and casual
stuff. When I want more than that I want a real computer, which means I pull
out a laptop. Laptops are only a little bigger than tablets. Tablets have the
crippled by design OS of a phone but none of the portability.

There is a market for tablets but I see it as somewhat niche.

~~~
dredmorbius
There's nothing but app ecosystem standing between Tablet aand useful
flyweight mobile computer.

Getting Termux on Android was a complete game-changer, and took the device
from hated useless toy to ... well, still-hated, but occasionally useful toy.
But clearly the limitation is in apps and OS, not form-factor.

~~~
api
That's what I said -- "dripped by design" OS. That being said I don't see it
as something that's going to change. The duopoly behind phones and tablets
wants these devices locked down. In Apple's case it's so they can take 30% of
every transaction. In Google's case it's so the device can double as a
surveillance platform.

~~~
dredmorbius
I'm watching Purism and Ubuntu with interest.

------
bitrrrate
If you bought a new iPhone 3G in 2008, and then a new iPhone 4 in 2010, you
were buying markedly different machines...

This is true. The first iPhone was a great product but 3G was a huge upgrade.
Retina screens, LTE, the increase in screen sizes, OTA updates all well worth
a yearly upgrade. Now the 6-8 are basically the same device with tweaks. Even
the two versions of iPhone X don't make a significant case to upgrade unless
you just upgrade because there’s a new phone released.

~~~
jandrese
I'm still using an iPhone 6 and honestly the iPhone Xs is a downgrade in a few
respects. The lack of a headphone jack is a bummer in my bluetooth lacking
vehicle. The lack of support for 32 bit apps means I'd have to leave a bunch
of my favourites behind. The price point is still discouraging. All in all it
leads to a pretty low motivation to upgrade.

------
ashraymalhotra
Loved this presentation from Ben Evans at the a16z conference. Talks about the
same thing in more detail.

[https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/11/16/the-
end-o...](https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/11/16/the-end-of-the-
beginning)

------
Simulacra
I just purchased an iPhone 8 and I plan to keep this for about 4 to 5 years.
My iPhone 6 Plus lasted quite well for 3 1/2 years, if you take care of it I
see no reason to upgrade. Maybe the market will become completely saturated
and stagnant, and Apple return to focusing on making computers.

~~~
bluedino
I will definitely be rid of my 8 in the next year. I want to go bezel-less.
It's just too big of a phone.

~~~
Simulacra
I love big phones and I cannot lie :-D

------
ec109685
I wonder how much Apple was helped by the battery debacle in the iPhone 6s. I
am sure a lot of folks upgraded because their phone was horrendously slow. Now
that Apple has fixed that problem and seemed to make iOS 12 faster than 11,
upgrade incentives have gone down.

------
delinka
Incorrect title.

Also, Growth in Growth? Are we in derivative territory here, or is this a
grammatical error?

~~~
olivier_martel
Should be sales.

------
mrhappyunhappy
I'm on an iPhone 6 plus, have had it for a while and don't see any reason to
switch except downgrading to a smaller screen. I've grown tires of this
behemoth of a screen and miss my tiny Google phon I could manhandle with ease.

------
konschubert
I think there is a strong temptation for Apple and other manufacturers to push
an iOS update that cripples their older models.

Long-term it would destroy their brand but short term they could potentially
see an uptick.

~~~
bootlooped
With Android I think the case is not that they'll push updates that cripple
older models; they just don't push updates at all.

~~~
cronix
At least with Android though you can install different, current, updated roms
which are often better without the bloat that usually comes from the carrier,
and a lot of them still get OTA updates. [https://www.xda-
developers.com/](https://www.xda-developers.com/)

~~~
scarface74
And that helps a few geeks with a few phones. That is not a long term solution
for most people.

Even worse, with most Android phones, you’re already starting out with slower
processors than the iPhone of the same year.

~~~
cronix
The processor speed hasn't mattered to me for the last few years. I'm still
using an "old" Galaxy S6 and it does everything I need it to just as fast as
the day I bought it. I don't plan on upgrading anytime soon except maybe a
battery replacement at some point, but a charge still lasts me most of the
day. I'm not a part of the rat race for the latest and greatest to run apps
that I don't care about, or want. I used to. Most apps are crap imo and a
waste of time. I use my phone mostly as a work and communication tool and
really just have like 5 apps installed. I've removed myself from the pointless
yearly upgrade game. I no longer care about having the newest and shiniest
gadget in my pocket. My quality of life is improved as I don't spend much time
on my phone, and I've saved quite a bit of money since I bought the phone
outright at the time of purchase. Nothing during the last few years is really
revolutionary. You can throw more resolution at it and my eyes see it the
same. I mean on something that is 5" or 6", 1080 looks about the same as 4k.
You can throw in a higher clock speed and more memory, but my apps run just as
fast.

> That is not a long term solution for most people.

I agree. Someone just needs to make an app to install roms from a repository
source easy, so anyone can do it. Like how easy it used to be to jailbreak an
iphone simply by just visiting a website and pressing a button.

