
The Long and Lucrative Mirage of the Driverless Car - haltingproblem
https://www.theringer.com/tech/2019/5/16/18625127/driverless-cars-mirage-uber-lyft-tesla-timeline-profitability
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haltingproblem
Originally motivated by Rodney Brooks post - AGI has been delayed [1].

 _" I think these three criteria need to be met before someone can say that we
have autonomous taxis on the road.

The first challenge, no human safety driver, has not been met by a single
experimental deployment of autonomous vehicles on public roads anywhere in the
world. They all have safety humans in the vehicle. A few weeks ago I saw an
autonomous shuttle trial along the paved beachside public walkways at the
beach on which I grew up, in Glenelg, South Australia, where there were two
“two onboard stewards to ensure everything runs smoothly” along with eight
passengers. Today’s demonstrations are just not autonomous. In fact in the
article above Luckerson points out that Uber’s target is to have their safety
drivers intervene only once every 13 miles, but they are way off that
capability at this time. Again, hardly autonomous, even if they were to meet
that goal. Imagine having a breakdown of your car that you are driving once
every 13 miles–we expect better.

And if normal human beings can’t simply use these services (in Waymo’s Phoenix
trial only 400 pre-approved people are allowed to try them out) and go
anywhere that they can go in a current day taxi, then really the things
deployed will not be autonomous taxis. They will be something else. Calling
them taxis would be redefining what a taxi is. And if you can just redefine
words on a whim there is really not much value to your words.

I am clearly skeptical about seeing autonomous cars on our roads in the next
few years. In the long term I am enthusiastic. But I think it is going to take
longer than most people think."_

[https://rodneybrooks.com/agi-has-been-delayed/](https://rodneybrooks.com/agi-
has-been-delayed/)

