
A Roadmap for the Upcoming U.S. Treasury Bull Market - apo
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2018/10/08/a-roadmap-for-the-upcoming-u-s-treasury-bull-market-1
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graedus
An alternate view I've seen is to look at the last 30(+) years as a giant bull
market in bonds that is slowly, finally, coming to a close[0][1]

[0] [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-10/is-
the-30...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-10/is-the-30-year-
bull-market-in-bonds-over)

[1] [https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamsarhan/2016/11/16/is-
the-30...](https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamsarhan/2016/11/16/is-the-30-year-
bull-market-in-bonds-over-ray-dalio-other-hedge-fund-managers-think-
so/#6ea5d7a01427)

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rplst8
Maybe the market is whatever you want it to be depending on the zoom level.
Like a giant fractal.

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nosuchthing
The fractal TA theory was commissioned into an actual esoteric piece of
software by Terence McKenna, called “Timewave Zero”

[https://youtube.com/watch?v=k9vkoDkeaVM](https://youtube.com/watch?v=k9vkoDkeaVM)

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gammateam
The crux of their argument is based around a trend line of yields, and
correlating the approach of yields to that trend line with actual human
behaviors.

I think this is flawed.

The only reason the trendline is sustained at this point is because feds rate
went all the way to ZERO for almost 8 years. I don't think we have enough
information to predict what the tolerable funds rate and treasury yields are.
Assuming the 3% line is really going to spell doom and gloom for the market is
reasonable, but not reasonable enough to extrapolate anything from it.

Yes, if we get enough recessio where lending dries up and stocks crash, people
worldwide will still rush to put their money in US Treasuries, resulting in a
bull market for US treasuries. The favorable aspects of treasuries - which are
LIQUIDITY and geopolitical position - have not been eclipsed by any asset
since the last time US treasuries had these advantages over any other asset
class.

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RyanShook
Any good resources on understanding and using treasuries to complete a
portfolio? Without leverage they look so unappealing today but I know they’re
important.

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purplezooey
I saw a late night commercial the other day, it had Boone Pickens saying we
should thank the Donald for our economy and watch out for the Millennial
socialists who will bring it all down. It was almost a parody of itself.

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outside1234
This is dumb as rocks -- and probably written by someone trying to get out of
a trade -- so buyer beware.

It is clear that the driver to higher rates are endless and large deficits in
the dollar, which going to lead to printing more dollars. It will end when the
deficit shrinks or the yield rises to cover the expected inflation from these
deficits.

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NTDF9
> It is clear that the driver to higher rates are endless and large deficits
> in the dollar, which going to lead to printing more dollars

That only happens for the 2 yr fed fund rate. When the FED sees a sudden spike
up or down in 2-yr rate, they buy the 2 yr bonds by printing to stabilize.

But, if they do that for 10 yr rate, US will become like Japan with money
fleeing the country because of expected inflation.

