

Andrew Chen: In a year, will Facebook be bigger? Or MySpace? Let's bet ;-) - andrew_null
http://andrewchen.typepad.com/andrew_chens_blog/2007/07/wanna-bet-in-1-.html
While MySpace is over 2X larger (109MM instead of 47MM), the Facebook growth in the last month was 22% whereas MySpace's was about 4.3%. If this rate were to continue, then Facebook would pass MySpace in about 7 months.<p>Will Facebook overtake MySpace? How long will it likely take?
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Tichy
While MySpace is very ugly, it seems to be considerably more interesting than
Facebook. At least people can express their individuality on MySpace. The
Facebook design, if it were black, would be suitable for funeral
announcements.

So my guess is that MySpace will prevail. Maybe they can't even be compared,
as they do different things.

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staunch
The average stay Facebook vs MySpace is what scares me. MySpace has an
_insane_ average stay of almost 30 minutes. Facebook has a pretty embarrassing
average stay of 13 minutes that tons of other sites beat.

[http://siteanalytics.compete.com/facebook.com+myspace.com?me...](http://siteanalytics.compete.com/facebook.com+myspace.com?metric=avgStay)

One year isn't very long. I wouldn't take that bet.

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joshwa
You know why MySpace's average stay is so much longer? It's slow, and you have
to click around to every single one of your friend's pages to see if they've
updated anything.

Facebook simplified this operation with the news feed and their handy yellow
update hilighting.

Consider it "shrinking the market"...

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epi0Bauqu
They also have different demographic centers, which each use the Internet
differently.

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steve
Hmm, that is a tough call.

[http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?site0=mysp...](http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?site0=myspace.com&site1=facebook.com&site2=&site3=&site4=&y=r&z=3&h=300&w=610&range=3y&size=Medium&url=willitblend.com)

I think that if myspace starts doing publicity on the level that facebook is
though, they still can stay on top.

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danw
I've noticed facebook always reports 'active' user numbers. Any idea how many
myspace accounts are active as opposed to abandoned or spam?

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menloparkbum
You could always just build a bot that adds 20000 MySpace accounts per day in
order to ensure that MySpace stays ahead.

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staunch
You'd have to break their CAPTCHA system first.

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sprice
I would take the same bet for Facebook

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crxnamja
i bet you like a gillion dollars. you have no idea!

