
Hugh MacLeod on career prospects - danielh
http://gapingvoid.com/2009/11/08/fat-dumb-happy/
======
patio11
In China, if you are one-in-a-million skilled at your endeavor of choice,
there are _still_ a thousand people better at it than you. Ditto with India.

I had a facts-of-life conversation with myself prior to entering college on
how good of a computer programmer I am (decent, but not the best) and what my
competitive situation would look like next to 100,000 Indians graduating every
year (not so great). That is when I decided to double major in a language.
Playing the Venn diagram game, the circle of people who are better programmers
than me is pretty big, the circle of people who speak better Japanese than I
do is pretty big, but the intersection of those two circles is pretty freaking
small.

I really suggest that everyone play the Venn diagram game for themselves. And,
no, "speaks English kinda good" and "has a college degree" is no longer enough
to cut it. Find yourself a niche and be at or near the top of the skill curve
in it. (I rush to add, for my fellow ArtSci graduates, that it helps if the
niche has _cough_ economic value. Nobody says you can't be the world's leading
expert on traditional Louisianan pottery, but that may end up being your hobby
rather than your day job.)

P.S. "Can program way out of paper bag" INTERSECT "marketing skills" results
in a _disgustingly_ small set. This is great news for small businessmen!

~~~
DavidMcLaughlin
If I'm a one-in-a-million programmer in a population with one billion people
(which I assume is what you were getting at), to have a thousand people better
than me would assume that 100% of that population are programmers. They are
not. Say for arguments sake that 5% of the Chinese population are professional
programmers, then if I'm one in a million then I have around 50 other people
on my level in the entire country.

On the other hand if my entire gimmick is "I'm a decent programmer but I can
speak Japanese!" and you limit yourself to that market then the reality is
that your opportunities are drastically smaller than even "American programmer
who is self-qualified with good experience, solid skills and good work ethic
looking for a 9-5 job in America."

~~~
alanthonyc
Your numbers are more precise than Patio's, but I think they miss the bigger
point he is trying to make: distinguish yourself from the crowd, find a niche.

To your second point, he also does emphasize that you need to create a
_marketable_ niche. Programmers who speak Japanese would be very valuable, iff
there aren't a lot of Japanese speakers who can program.

~~~
DavidMcLaughlin
I got the point, I just don't agree that it's essential or even all that
effective to become niche. In fact I can think of many examples were becoming
niche will hurt you in the long term - I mean, hey, my niche used to be Perl
:)

Which I guess is my point - if you're a programmer and looking to add a
language to your toolkit, surely a programming language would be the better
choice?

------
Alex3917
"And in the back of my mind, I’m thin­king the same is star­ting to hap­pen to
white collar guys more and more, as well. But it’s not quite out in the open
yet. Society’s not quite ready to have that conversation."

This. I wonder how long it's going to take until we're allowed to talk about
this. It's pretty clear that five years ago if you graduated from an Ivy but
you weren't that smart, you could still get a pretty good job. But today these
people are mostly unemployed because they aren't willing to take a menial job,
and the thing is that it looks like they'll never get offered anything better
than a menial job. How big does this class of people have to get before this
is officially a 'thing'?

~~~
ovi256
Well, pretty big, because it has to override all the signals sent from the
actors that wish to perpetuate the status quo, such as the Ivy League schools
themselves, who are not interested in admitting that their education has lost
value. This, plus social inertia, is delaying recognition of this new social
status.

------
swombat
Am I the only one who feels that having to _actually try_ to get a good job
straight out of uni should be the norm rather than the exception?

College is not training for a job. It's something you should do because you
want to learn. If you go to university because you want a job, you're a fool.
There's no conceivable reason why simply "having a degree" (or, for the blue-
collar example, being alive) should be a guarantee of a "good job".

I didn't graduate all that long ago, from a top university, and yet I had to
actually struggle to get my first job (graduating right after 9/11 and being a
foreign student didn't help). I don't see that as abnormal, though. What's so
terrible about a little struggling? It's not like any of these so-called
thousandists are struggling to feed themselves. Does anyone really want to
just waltz out of college into a boring, reasonably paid job for the rest of
their life? I find it hard to empathise with anyone whose aspirations in life
stop there.

Sorry for the slightly incoherent rant, but this sort of thing (which I think
they call "an overgrown sense of entitlement") bugs me. Nothing's guaranteed
in this world, not even that you'll have a fair shot. Compared to most of
human history, these are fantastic times we live in, where almost everyone is
at least given the opportunity to do something with their life. Stop bitching
and get on with making the most of your life!

~~~
nollidge
> If you go to university because you want a job, you're a fool.

Even if that's what your elders had been telling you all your life? I'm not
saying it's their fault either; after all it worked for them [1], so it made
sense to pass on a working theory. I just don't think it's apt to label a
young person foolish just because they listened to the (flawed) wisdom of the
more experienced.

[1] I'm speaking only of the U.S. Baby Boomer generation like my parents,
since that's all I'm qualified to speak of.

~~~
waterlesscloud
Yes. If you listen to what everyone is telling you without evaluating it for
yourself, you are indeed a fool.

------
yan
This reminds me of a conversation I had with a friend of mine. I was ranting
to him how I didn't feel good enough in any single pursuit and was upset at
having so many hobbies and side-interests diluting my ability to be much
better at any one thing. He basically told me: "Well, no one has the exact
same set of skills that you do and being diverse in training is a virtue.
Plus, even if there is someone better than you at everything you do, that
person's really fucking busy right now, so there's still a lot of work to do"

------
tptacek
Doesn't the idea that there are thirty million piano-playing Chinese children
imply that there is also a massive impending expansion in total addressible
worldwide market?

The era of the 6-figure starting salary for MBA's may be drawing to a close
(though it is not, as my little sister will tell you, for law school grads),
but the forces that demolished Big Auto are specific and concrete; no similar
force applies to "white collar" in general.

~~~
UncleOxidant
"Doesn't the idea that there are thirty million piano-playing Chinese children
imply that there is also a massive impending expansion in total addressible
worldwide market?"

How many top piano players do you really need in the world? Especially a world
where music is so easy to reproduce and distribute. When it comes to cello
players, there's only one YoYo Ma - how many other notable cello players can
you name?

"though it is not, as my little sister will tell you, for law school grads"

Your little sister may want to rethink that. There was an article in the local
paper here a few weeks back about how recent college grads are having a tough
time finding work. One of the people profiled graduated from a fairly well
respected local law school back in the Spring and has yet to find anything.
She said that she and many of her former classmates are now on food stamps.

~~~
waterlesscloud
The idea of 30 million piano-playing Chinese isn't important because we need
piano players. It's important because the fact that someone can take piano
lessons implies a certain level of economic status beyond day-to-day survival.
It implies a growing middle and upper class. Those implications lead to the
conclusion of much larger markets, which leads to the idea of more wealth
creation resulting from people filling those markets.

------
dwightman
That is a powerful post. This is the HN moment. The HN community can play a
critical role in shaping the next decade.

Personally, as scary as the coming years may be, I've been expecting them, and
am excited.

