
Power Outage at Samsung Fab Destroys 3.5% of Global NAND Flash Output for March - jonbaer
https://www.anandtech.com/show/12535/power-outage-at-samsungs-fab-destroys-3-percent-of-global-nand-flash-output
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maxander
This sort of thing shows how scarily centralized electronics production is. If
a disruption at one plant can take out 3.5% of global production, how many of
these plants are there? On the order of 30? Imagine a terrorist group decides
to bomb them all simultaneously; there goes the production of every device
that uses these chips, potentially for years. Are they needed for something
critical? How many products do we rely on that all come from the same dozen or
so places?

~~~
simonh
I don’t think the terrorist threat is likely. It would have to be on the scale
of 30 simultaneous 9/11 attacks. Anything less would just be a temporary
inconvenience, 3.5% for a month is only 0.3% of annual production.

~~~
sm64
Also, a group capable of 30 simultaneous infrastructure attacks anywhere in
the world with the goal of disrupting civilization can easily find far better
targets than chip fabs, and various intelligence agencies will have
infiltrated such a large international group anyway. The notion is interesting
but unrealistic.

~~~
adrianN
What thirty targets with similar security as chip fabs do you have in mind? I
have a hard time coming up with anything other than nuclear plants for massive
damage, but they have somewhat stricter access control, I hope. Oil pipelines
are much quicker to repair and most countries have strategic reserves.
Refineries maybe?

~~~
stdclass
What about critical infrastructure? Dams which could flood big areas are one
example which would be absolutely destructive

~~~
adrianN
I don't think flooding one area is on the same level as killing a large part
of microchip production for a couple of years. Almost everything has a chip
inside these days.

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gizmodo59
The cost of RAM is already very very high. This has been surging for quite
sometime and now we might see the same for SSDs too. Not to call this news as
false, but its sad to see the price increasing :(

[https://www.reddit.com/r/buildapc/comments/73el5s/are_ram_pr...](https://www.reddit.com/r/buildapc/comments/73el5s/are_ram_prices_unusually_high_at_the_moment_or/dnpq1a4/)

~~~
sophacles
We've already been in it for SSDs for a while. We're just getting _back to_
$40/120GB SSD Sata drives. And that's mostly via on-sale prices.

(diclaimer - this is mostly via newegg/amazon pricing - hard drive prices are
something I follow in the background, this isn't a scientific/well researched
observation by any means, but other folks I've talked to have similar
observations)

~~~
verelo
I recall paying around $1/gb in ~2006, and that was for a 5400rpm drive (and
I’m sure the older members here will say something in the mb range). So while
i agree, the rate we have come to expect value to increase isn’t continuing on
that exponential curve we experienced the last 20 years, the prices are not
expensive by any means.

~~~
dawnerd
If you’re talking mechanical drive prices, the best deal I’ve seen around are
the wd easystores sold at Best Buy. When they go on sale for under 150 for the
8tb version, hard to beat that value. I filled my entire storinator up with
them.

Can’t wait until ssds can compete with price/capacity.

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gregoriol
Power can be critical in many ways: loose it at a meat processing plant and
all production is lost too.

Reminds me of another situation where power loss was... a huge problem:
[http://abcnews.go.com/US/texas-chemical-plant-braces-
explosi...](http://abcnews.go.com/US/texas-chemical-plant-braces-explosions-
fires-hurricane-harvey/story?id=49521170)

~~~
mikeash
The Fukushima meltdown was ultimately due to power loss as well. The tsunami
started the ball rolling, but the simultaneous loss of power from the
reactors, the backup generators, and the grid is what led to disaster.

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kissickas
"Power outages tend to happen on various semiconductor plants and at times
they harm production wafers."

One of the most meaningless sentences I've read in recent memory. The
journalist didn't bother to ask how often they have power outages and how
often those harm wafers, but they still put this in the final article?

~~~
wtallis
You don't see any value in pointing out to the lay reader that such events
aren't unheard of, unless their frequency and severity is precisely
quantified?

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arvinsim
It's not very hard to come to the conclusion that this might be done
deliberately...

~~~
drdeadringer
It's hard for me. Help me out.

~~~
cptskippy
There have been many instances of price fixing and collusion among DRAM,
Flash, and storage manufacturers going back to 2000 and before.

If however you can attribute the price hikes to a natural disaster, say a
flood or power outage, then you'll receive less scrutiny for sustained price
increases.

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toomuchtodo
Makes a great case for on site energy storage.

~~~
spyder
They have it, but not enough, probably because they would need a lot more.
From the comments of the article:

 _" Korean media has coverage of this.

Battery powered emergency power did kick in. However, some areas had to be
shut down because of the amount of power that battery power can cover. Stuff
that cannot be shut down were kept operational.

Not all the wafers will be thrown away. They are checking which are safe to
use. Maximum damage is estimated at about $50 million."_

~~~
aoeusnth1
Maximum damage is estimated at $50 million = 3.5% of global supply for a month

global supply for a month = 30 * $50 million = $1.5B

global NAND market = $18B/year

That seems low to me. Are there other figures on the value of the global NAND
industry to compare this with?

~~~
jsjohnst
$50B is likely their wholesale value, not end user value.

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Keyframe
Reminds me of that epoxy plant disaster (can't remember/find source atm) that
shot prices through the roof.

~~~
garblegarble
Is it this Japanese chemical plant explosion from 1993 perhaps?
[http://www.apnewsarchive.com/1993/Semiconductor-Industry-
Fac...](http://www.apnewsarchive.com/1993/Semiconductor-Industry-Faces-
Problems-After-Resin-Plant-Explosion/id-8fe2925b68d34d33f19a53e4892c74a2)

~~~
Keyframe
I think that's it!

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sunstone
These guys should think about a Tesla battery UPS for their risk mitigation
plan.

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ce4
Formerly discussed here
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16594694](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16594694)

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baybal2
Most likely silicon cruicibles. The reason there is no backup power is because
this would've taken building an own power plant.

~~~
CaliforniaKarl
Link? I've not heard of those before, and am interested to learn more!

~~~
selectodude
They're just the things that the silicon crystals are grown in. The furnace
cools off and the whole thing needs to be re-started/replaced.

~~~
baybal2
It does not work like that. The whole thing needs to be a single crystal. If a
minute temperature change creates a second grain in the melt, it is all gone,
along with the crucible.

~~~
CaliforniaKarl
Is there any place online, on a book, you suggest I go to in order to watch or
read more about this? That all sounds remarkably interesting, especially for
something which impacts all of our lives so much.

~~~
baybal2
[https://youtu.be/8QKzS_w_Ko0](https://youtu.be/8QKzS_w_Ko0)

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throwaway2048
Seems like this is going to develop into another years long excuse about why
NAND prices remain high. Totally not collusion though, absolutely not.

