

Can Desktop Linux Stay Relevant in the Era of Cloud and Mobile? - klintron
http://servicesangle.com/blog/2011/11/23/as-ubuntu-declines-can-desktop-linux-stay-relevant-in-the-era-of-cloud-and-mobile/

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rbanffy
I don't think desktop Linux was ever relevant outside a small software-
development centered ecosystem.

Now... Mint being the most popular Linux with more share than all others
combined? Fedora overtaking Ubuntu? I wonder where their data comes from.

~~~
tomwalsham
As someone's who has exclusively used Linux since early 2000s, I never saw the
aspiration for Linux to ascend to mainstream popularity on the desktop as
something I favoured. I wanted feature parity - browsers, plugins, sdks etc. -
and for several years these have all been released near simultaneously. The
'mainstream' ambition required stripping out the fragmentation/customization
which has always been one of the biggest draws for me. Unity is the eventual
conclusion of this goal - the pursuit of generic, supportable 'usability'.

As for the premise of the article, the massive skew in Distrowatch's stats are
deeply misleading. It's not downloads or active installs, it's hits to an
informational page. DW is #3 on Google for 'Linux Mint' so it's a barometer of
general interest, but the only conclusion you can draw is 'the negative
reception of Unity as default was capitalized on by Mint to drive interest'.

Not to say it won't result in an upswing in Mint installs (I was considering
it myself until I discovered the baked-in search engine capture), but DW stats
make Alexa look like a paragon of accurate reporting.

~~~
klintron
"The negative reception of Unity as default was capitalized on by Mint to
drive interest."

That's a good hypothesis, though in that case I would assume the surge in
interest in Mint would be accompanied by at least steady interest in Ubuntu
instead of a drop. Also, the interest in Mint has been rising for quite some
time and interest in Ubuntu has been decreasing steadily. This could just be
that by now everyone who's interested in Linux knows all they want to know
about Ubuntu, but interest in alternatives is starting to increase.

My premise has less to do with the particulars of the exact numbers of Ubuntu
vs. Mint users, and more to do with the fact that there's not really a go-to
distro for new users anymore. Ubuntu, Mint and Peppermint are all contenders
for this role, and openSUSE and Fedora are still options as well. I think this
lends to an uncertainty about which to choose and which will have continued
support. The problem is compounded by the fact that a lot of applications are
being accessed from browsers and/or mobile devices, so that even as Ubuntu
could be gaining power users its pushing power users away in an attempt to
gain mainstream users that they may never get.

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jmathai
Any chance Linux had in overtaking Windows on the Desktop was ended by Apple.

UI on mobile is even more difficult to get right than on the desktop. This is
where Linux has always struggled. Even Ubuntu (Linux's best attempt to date)
is several years behind everyone else.

I love that they're putting forth a serious effort but I don't see it making a
meaningful dent.

~~~
astrodust
Does Android count as Linux?

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j2labs
Android isn't a desktop os.

~~~
vacri
The OP referenced 'UI on mobile'.

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3pt14159
Yes it is still relevant.

The only thing stopping my non-programmer flatmates from using Ubuntu is
_only_ MS Office.

They are envious of the interface and the ease at which I get all sorts of
packages without worrying about malware.

~~~
wavephorm
Star Office is awfully good.

Office productivity isn't the only issue. The issue is they already have
Windows, and Office on their computer so there is no real advantage after
switching to a free alternative, and there are some REALLY HUGE disadvantages
like having to edit bash scripts to manage your computer.

Linux desktop failed. The sooner the Linux community gets over it and starts
to focus on cloud stuff (virtualization, management) the better.

~~~
jaetldev
The best brains in *nux should be focusing on the next generation FOSS/GNU
tools to 'power the web'. If desktop OS itself is at risk of extinction , this
is one fight which the Linux community has taken on for too far and too long.

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JohnTHaller
The DistroWatch numbers don't measure installs, active users or downloads.
They only measure hits to informational pages about each distribution on
DistroWatch. So anyone quoting them and calling them trends of actual Linux
usage, doesn't know what they're talking about. It's like quoting the
W3schools browser numbers and saying the represent actual browser share (they,
too, only measure visitors to their website).

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sycren
Well on one hand linux is free apart from support and the cloud would offset
this support for a fee on usage. I think desktop linux will still stay
prevalent for high-end computing. For example the London Stock exchange runs
on linux starting from this year. Research projects in universities and
institutions prefer linux over other OS's.

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twstws
I think they've got it backward. 'Cloud computing' makes all desktop OS
irrelevant. Which means it's easier than ever for me, working in a Debian
ecosystem with Fluxbox/Emacs/Firefox as my main apps, to collaborate with
peers using OSX or Windows, without them knowing or caring.

Besides which, whether Ubuntu is the top Linux distro is completely orthogonal
to the capacity of Linux in general to serve as a desktop.

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hexis
"“It’s disappointing when an old friend releases such a terrible interface,”
Lucas Charles, a linguistics major at Portland State University who has been
using Ubuntu since 2001, told me. “It’s not inherently bad, just buggy.”"

Considering Ubuntu had its first release in 2004, this article should probably
be taken with a grain of salt.

~~~
klintron
Thanks for pointing that out, I meant to write Linux, not Ubuntu. I've
corrected it.

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wavephorm
The entire "desktop computing" paradigm is coming to an end. Overlapping
windows, buttons, icons, cascading menus... it's over. We're entering the next
phase of computing, touchscreen, voice, hand gestures, AI.

No, Linux desktop is no longer relevant.

~~~
vacri
I take it you don't work in an office of any kind. Do you really think all
office workers are going to switch to tablets for the daily grind?

~~~
wavephorm
I'm betting my startup idea on it.

