

Luck = D * T, where D is doing and T is telling others. - pajju
http://www.codusoperandi.com/posts/increasing-your-luck-surface-area

======
_delirium
I think a big missing factor is the field of endeavor, let's call it B for
background, which is the amount of money/interest/activity floating around in
the area you're doing things in. The more there is, the more likely you'll
profit from doing even fairly random, even mediocre, things in the area.
Plenty of people have gotten rich from mediocre-to-bad tech stuff (and plenty
more earn an OK living doing an outright terrible job of coding); your chances
of getting rich from not-great tech stuff are probably actually higher than
your chances of getting rich from even _really good_ music, say.

Or as they say in business school, picking your market is more important than
what you do in the market. I don't particularly like that way of looking at it
(I prefer people who picked an area because they're passionate about it, not
because they saw the most money in it), but I think the 'B' factor can't
really be overlooked; your odds are much better if the pie is big and money is
falling from skies, than if you're fighting to get pieces of a small pie.

In fact, from a pure monetary-success angle, it may be better to pick a big-
pie field that you're mediocre at, than a small-pie field where you'd be in
the 90th percentile, depending on how much bigger the pie is. Do stuff in the
vicinity of money, and you have a decent chance of some of it rubbing off on
you...

~~~
nickpinkston
I'd say that you're talking about a different measure of "return". You could
get very lucky and become the world's foremost bag pipes player, but you
probably don't have the likelihood of returns than your average real estate
hustler.

Luck is probably something closer to the OP's equation. Though you could be
right in that certain fields may have a lot more people willing to help you
out - perhaps cleantech people are all about making the world a better place,
they make more intros, etc.

It sounded more like the former than the latter though.

------
pajju
L =0. when D =0 and even when T is Large.

L =0. when T =0 even when D is Large.

If you actually do work hard and create something of value, but don't do a
very good job of telling the world about your passionate work, then you're
going to be ignored and relegated to obscurity.

~~~
zyfo
Really? Care to give an example on the second one? Sounds like a lot of hand-
waving to me.

Obviously, if _no one_ finds out about what you did, no one will know about
you. If you're doing something truly extraordinary an old diary, some notes in
the margin, or just visible side-effects are enough.

This kind of over-simplification doesn't say much at all. If you're finding
the cure for death people will find out eventually, and if you're someone who
accidentally got famous (catastrophe survivors, some TV-personalities) you
don't have to do anything to get lucky.

EDIT: Replace cure for death with say - trading strategy that makes you
insanely rich, or some software which helps you do x much faster than anyone
else, or anything really which carries the original signal forward. It was
just an extreme (and silly) illustrative example.

~~~
pajju
Luck is an attribute that comes into picture in various forms.

Life Saving, accidentally got famous, catastrophe survivors -

Which I feel is the Karma factor. Isn't it the doing factor(D)? Doing is
spreading good, consciousness and awakening. Karma is accumulated Points from
your past births + Present life deeds also plays its part.

So D is the karma you've got inside from all your births(Birth1 + Birth2 + ...
+ Birth7).

------
Jach
Except if you tell people you're going to do something you're less likely to
do it since your brain can trick itself into feeling the same happy feelings
it would feel if you actually did it... I'm not convinced the equation holds.

------
mtrn
Reminds me of this visualization of a similar concept:
<http://joeyroth.com/poster/>

------
vannevar
I would only add that Luck Surface Area does not equate to Luck itself. You
can buy half the tickets in the Lotto and still lose.

------
pajju
Take D as the karma factor. Isn't it the doing factor(D)? Doing is spreading
goodness, getting more conscious and ultimately awakening. Simple - Karma is
accumulated Points from your past births + Present life deeds also plays its
part.

So D is the karma you've got inside from all your births(Birth1 + Birth2 + ...
+ Birth7).

~~~
zyfo
I don't think redefining established terms like _doing stuff_ in order to suit
your argument is going to get you much karma here on HN.

~~~
pajju
Luck is an attribute that comes into picture in various forms. See the meaning
of karma.

<http://www.buddhanet.net/e-learning/karma.htm>

