
The simple rule that can help you predict the future - hhs
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190624-how-to-think-about-the-far-future
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mdorazio
To save everyone the read, this is an explanation of Taleb's take on the
"Lindy Effect"[1]. One-sentence explanation from the article:

"The controversial author Nassim Nicholas Taleb offers a counter-intuitive
rule-of-thumb for answering questions like this. If you want to know how long
something non-perishable will endure – that is, something not subject to the
limits of a natural lifespan – then the first question you should ask is how
long it has already existed. The older it is, the more likely it is to go on
surviving."

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect)

