

Keeping Prediction Honest - DaniFong
http://einfall.wordpress.com/2008/07/20/keeping-prescience-honest/

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snewe
She says:

"when I make predictions, instead of casting them abstractly into the air,
I’ll post them here: einfall.slinkset.com. And I won’t delete my predictions —
if they turn out wrong, I’ll keep them there, as permanent reminders to learn
from."

Here is the strategy that I recommend: predict less often and predict things
that are easy to predict. Unfortunately, "big" predictions get you web traffic
and short-term attention. When the outcome reveals itself, the vast majority
of people forget that you made a prediction. So I don't think this is that big
of a move. Now, if you put money behind it...

~~~
DaniFong
Most of these predictions are those I've made long before, I just hadn't
nailed down the specifics. So my rate of prediction hasn't quite settled yet.
And the predictions are likely to arise from things that I think about, which,
more often than not, are fairly 'big' in nature. But I agree that smaller,
more specific, short term predictions are valid and helpful too.

