
How Computer Modelers Took on the Ebola Outbreak - caberus
http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/software/how-computer-modelers-took-on-the-ebola-outbreak
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nl
This is a dreadful article, even if it is an interesting topic.

 _Their forecasts, and those of many other modelers, vastly overpredicted the
actual toll of the disease._

No they didn't.

That prediction was in the absence of interventions.

They modeled the impact of various interventions and found a best would
produce around ~10,000 infections[1] in Liberia in November 2014. In reality
there were around 6500, so I'd say that was a pretty accurate prediction.

[1] guessing from a graph:
[http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/files/2014/09/LiberiaComb...](http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/files/2014/09/LiberiaCombinedTrajectory.png).
Complete paper:
[http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/obk-14-0043-model...](http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/obk-14-0043-modeling-
the-impact-of-interventions-on-an-epidemic-of-ebola-in-sierra-leone-and-
liberia/)

