
Ask HN: How often do gold-rush opportunities like iPhone’s App Store happen? - MetalGuru
What are the requirements for this to happen? For example, the internet created a whole new ecosystem of opportunity, but a bunch of government funding went into developing it. A bunch of work went into developing the iPhone. So is a new platform a requirement? Does anyone have any predictions for what future platforms might come into existence, and what signals are you basing these predictions on? Is there any pattern in the frequency of these kinds of game-changing platforms?
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taphangum
Seems to be about once every 10 years. But it might be accelerating due to
speed of technical innovation.

The most recent one has obviously been crypto. Whatever will be next is
probably bubbling somewhere on a forum or subreddit with a few people who
really believe in it, but most not really taking it seriously. The Paul Graham
'looks like a toy' [1] heuristic is a good one.

The chief requirement seems to be a small, organic but very intense group of
people, with a long term view, who are unflinchingly sure that it - whatever
it is - will work, eventually.

This seems to be as, if not more important than what the thing actually is.

[1]
[http://www.paulgraham.com/organic.html](http://www.paulgraham.com/organic.html)

