
Have We Hit Peak Podcast? - mooreds
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/18/style/why-are-there-so-many-podcasts.html
======
JansjoFromIkea
The majority of podcasts I listen to are almost exclusively supported by
Patreon and I think they probably need to be considered an entirely different
thing than ad-driven podcasts.

The former is likely to persist consistently, albeit as possibly a more niche
role than some currently occupy as opposed to a full time job for loads of
people. One consistency among the Patreon sponsored ones is that they tend to
involve a much looser approach and function almost as a kind of social
substitute (very fluid run times, casual vibe even if they've been
immaculately researched). In fact, there's a few I listen to where it's pretty
clear the main reason they still exist is so the hosts have an excuse to hang
out more than anything else.

The latter type seems to be either at or past the point of total saturation
where they're just too much work to keep up with and the format is just too
sterile to garner the kind of stickiness that the smaller and more casual ones
can generate. The kind of quality required to garner a substantial audience
for this kind of podcast is nearing the point of major TV shows. The peak was
probably about two years ago when any crappy true crime thing could become a
bit of a sensation (I'm looking at you, Dirty John)

------
augustl
I just started my own, and when I went to the music gear store to pick up a
pair of Shure SM7B, they were sold out because everyone is starting a podcast
these days... I tried to hide my embarrassment to the salesperson.

We do put a lot of time and effort into our podcast, though. We're avid fans
of Radiolab. The first episode was just rambling - but it was the 5th take of
rambling, at least. Our 4th episode was a thoroughly researched one where I
introduced my co-host to some basic statistics I had to learn as part of the
research (null hypothesis, precision/recall, ...) that Microsoft did after
Vista to figure out why it went wrong. The 5th episode was about Linus
Torvalds' book Just For Fun, where I read the book, annotated it heavily,
found an interesting narrative and perspective, and read from the book and
tied it into one of my favorite moments of the Breaking Bad insider podcast.
Our upcoming 6th episode is going to be about the early Stack Overflow podcast
episodes, where Joel and Jeff discuss in detail how they're going to make a
successful QA site that at the time absolutely was not guaranteed to be
successful. (Yeah, I know, very meta :D)

Maybe podcasts are like tenure at universities... 95% is wasted, but the other
5% is so good that it's worth it anyway? Hopefully we can contribute to the
good parts of the podcasting sphere.

(Our podcast is in Norwegian and is named Utviklingslandet, if anyone wants to
check it out)

~~~
namarie
> Maybe podcasts are like tenure at universities... 95% is wasted, but the
> other 5% is so good that it's worth it anyway?

Why do you think tenure is wasted?

------
pletnes
No way. A lot of topics are not yet covered, and a lot of people are not yet
listening. With a larger audience comes more $, and with more $ comes better
content, over time. I’d guess we are at a time when competition sets in, and
(some of) the people who are serious about making money off of their podcasts
will outcompete the hobbyists.

I’m guessing there’s no coincidence that spotify added podcasts to their apps
recently.

Of course, the «I want to talk about the trees outside» podcasts will suffer
the same fate as rarely updated, uninteresting blogs.

~~~
paulgb
If anything, we may be at peak interview/chatter and true crime, but
listenable shows that go in-depth on a topic and tell a story are few and far
between. Or at least, I haven't been able to find them as quickly as I can
listen to them.

~~~
alexhutcheson
In-depth research and storytelling are pretty expensive (lots of time needed
for research and editing), and it's not clear if there's enough money in the
ecosystem for many of the interested amateurs to make those sorts of shows on
a full-time basis. They'll probably continue to exist, but my guess is most
shows like that won't be able to maintain a regular release cadence, since the
creators will have to keep their "day jobs".

~~~
jfengel
I feel like there's a gap in the "tip jar" market. I have a lot of podcasts
for which I'd happily pay about 10 to 25 cents per episode, but it's not
trivial to do. If it were, it would take a few thousand people to do so --
which isn't a small audience, but not enormous.

Currently there's a voluntary "if you like us, find us on Patreon". Even being
able to provide a "connect to Patreon" button on the screen would be a boost.
UX and web site designers are well aware of how many people you lose with each
step. Such a button could also auto-switch to the ad-free stream; I once paid
for the upgrade but managing the different feed was a pain.

I'm still using Pocket Casts, so it's possible that an integrated app like
Stitcher is already doing that. If not, I see a niche that would make it
easier for amateurs to scratch out a living. I think the money is there if you
make it easy for people to give it.

~~~
ghaff
This is the whole micropayment conundrum that Clay Shirky wrote about when it
first reared its head during the original dot-com era. In principle, if most
content were wired into some common payment system, the thought is that people
would be willing to pay 5 cents for an article/podcast/etc.

In practice, the wiring of everything together, the establishment of pricing,
and (Shirky's argument) the mental transaction costs of having to decide
whether to make constant small purchases has made this model very elusive.

~~~
jfengel
I think that since podcasts are often subscribed to, we might be able to
mitigate the micropayment problem at least a bit. There are a lot of podcasts
for which I'd be willing to pay, say, $10 per year -- though not enough to go
through the trouble of finding and connecting to them on Patreon.

~~~
ghaff
The thing is I dive in and out of podcasts. I don't want to subscribe. Plus
I'd actually say that $10 is a fair bit for most podcasts over the course of a
year. Maybe if there's one I'm particularly obsessed with. But not in general.

------
jccalhoun
"They called it “The Advice Podcast” and put about as much energy into the
show’s production as they did the name. [...]recorded themselves chatting with
an iPhone 5. But six episodes in, [..] the friends quit. "

<sarcasm>With all that hard effort I am shocked they didn't become rich and
famous.... </sarcasm>

------
subpar
The year was 2011 and I had just moved to DC after finishing undergrad. I
couldn't find work in the radio business so instead I got a contract gig
through Craigslist with the Internet Archive scanning books in the basement of
the Library of Congress. Its dark down there and the work is pretty
mechanical. The books themselves are only occasionally interesting.

My iPod Touch could connect to wifi so I started listening to NPR while I
scanned. I could do that for two hours or so, but once the segments started
repeating I got bored. A friend suggested I listen to Radiolab, so I did. When
I'd gone through their catalogue I tried out 99% Invisible. Then academic
lectures that had been turned into podcasts. Then audiobooks. Then whatever I
could find by searching for "good podcasts." Eventually I got tired of the
_sound_ of podcasts (they have a sound) and switched to WFMU and a couple
college stations I liked.

I haven't listened to another podcast since. Am I missing something?

~~~
JansjoFromIkea
WFMU and you didn't wind up hooked to the Best Show for at least a short
while?

~~~
subpar
Oh sure, I had my Best Show phase. Who hasn't these days?

------
acconrad
Both podcasts and blogs are difficult to monetize. But does that have to be
the _point_ of a podcast/blog? I'd say no.

Plenty of people write blogs for themselves and for learning/teaching. Why not
do the same thing for podcasts? Those who are truly invested in the medium and
want to provide value to others (and themselves) will do it long enough to
make it successful. I mean if you try a podcast for 6 episodes and
quit...sorry, you probably were never going to be successful as a podcast
owner.

~~~
ghaff
A lot of people are probably conflating the monetization angle with the
content of the podcasts themselves. It's true that you're probably not going
to see a lot of NPR or NPR-style highly produced podcasts from people just
doing it for fun. On the other hand, quite a few actually prefer the more
conversational and casual angle that comes from people just talking on mic or
over the Internet. And those are very doable for pretty much anyone who has
the interest and motivation.

------
paulpauper
thanks to podcasts I have 50 business logos, a year supply of dollar shave
club, 8 wordpress hosting accounts, and 5 mattresses

~~~
CoolGuySteve
Yeah, it feels like less than 10 companies are funding everything podcast
right now. Seems pretty fragile.

~~~
nytesky
Gimlet media’s startup talks about the narrow field of pod advertisers.

------
swalsh
The good podcasts take a decent amount of prep work. Hardcore history,
probably one of the best has months between episodes because Dan puts an
incredible amount of research into each episode.

On a side note, my dream podcast would be one analyzing the "time between".
History podcasts love to talk about war, and war is interesting, but I find
the political details before and after the war more interesting. One of my
favorite books is "Paris 1919", a book all about the peace conference after
the war. As great as Dan's podcast on WW1 was, he barely talked about the most
important part of the war. What happened after it. When the leaders got
together, the world was "shaped". It's a facinating read that gives a bit of
insight into how the sausage we live in was made.

------
vmurthy
The story mentions a few stories and it might be a lead indicator but I tend
to "follow the money" ;-) and this is what the money tells me[1]:

"Last year, VCs invested just over $200 million in various podcast platforms
and related businesses, per the PitchBook Platform. That includes a $50
million funding for the online radio app TuneIn, about $20 million for Gimlet
Media and another $20 million for HowStuffWorks, the company behind the
popular show "Stuff You Should Know" as well as other original podcast
content.

So far this year, VCs have shelled out $64 million on companies in the space,
including a $40 million NEA-led round for Luminary Media, the operator of a
subscription-based podcast platform, and a $13.5 million Series B for podcast
startup Castbox"

[1] [https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/vcs-love-fundingand-
host...](https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/vcs-love-fundingand-
hostingpodcasts)

The implication to me at-least is that the tools to launch podcasts will
continue to proliferate (how else will all those platforms for podcasts make
money?) and we can expect a lot more podcasts in the future. Would love to
hear differing views.

------
apotatopot
I don't think so. My wife and I have started a podcast that's pretty much
about our personal lives. Two of our recent guests went off and started a
podcast of their own. Two more are talking about it, but haven't started, yet.

That said, IMO, the amount of podcasts that exist is just starting to ramp up.
There are so many people who have yet to start listening/making one. The
tools, like anchor, are miles ahead of where they used to be, but still have a
long way to go.

~~~
paulkon
What do you feel is missing in anchor?

And do you think more podcasts will be done with remote guests? Any good tools
you recommend for getting good audio or video in that case?

~~~
ghaff
>And do you think more podcasts will be done with remote guests?

If there were a magic bullet, take my money. But I doubt if there is, given
the state of corporate video conferencing--which doesn't optimize for sound
quality.

The "best" quality solution I've found is to have the other person make a
separate audio recording and email it to me. But that certainly introduces
friction and not everyone has mics laying around. However, in a lot of cases,
consistently getting in the same room as people is tough.

One thing I've done is to try to take advantage of in-person opportunities as
much as possible and just accept that there's going to be a lot of background
noise at conferences, etc.

------
jccalhoun
I think we are near peak corporate podcast. I listen to radio in the morning
and I hear a lot of commercials for "advertorial" podcasts by lyft (or is it
uber? I don't pay attention) and something hosted by Ariana Huffington with
some mattress sponsor. And I can't imagine that a lot of these celebrity
podcasts will last more than a year or two.

However, I think the non-corporate podcasts will be around for a long time.

------
ijpoijpoihpiuoh
Does it matter at all that people start and end low quality podcasts? Nobody
listens to them, nobody spends money on them, and the producers lose little by
trying something and stopping.

What I care about is the availability of high quality talk and news available
on Podcasts. There seems to be plenty, and even if the ecosystem contracts by
50-75% there will still be far more good content than I have time to listen.

Also, considering "podcast" just means "digitally delivered serial mostly-
spoken audio," it's hard to imagine it going away permanently. We have five
senses, only two of which are typically used for informal communication. We
have a few communication modalities for vision: video, graphics, text. And we
have two that I'm aware of for listening: music and speaking (podcasts).

------
mgamache
Peak podcast? Not sure that oversimplification makes sense. The number of
podcasts may decline as a we get fewer, but higher value podcasts. I see this
happening with YouTube. Higher production value shows with good content are
winning.

~~~
ghaff
It wouldn't surprise me if you end up with something of a bifurcation.
Relatively simple podcasts by people doing it for fun or supporting them
professionally on the one hand and professionally-produced podcasts that make
money on the other. Of course, that's an oversimplification and at least some
number of people will devote lots of time to podcasts even though they're just
making a few dollars from fans through Patreon or whatever.

~~~
mgamache
Right, the business model is getting nuanced with revenue from YouTube /
Patreon etc... Some will continue to do it as a form of marketing. Also,
there's a non-monetary social status benefit that will cause people to
continue even if it's not a money maker (that you are alluding to). Like most
other human activities it will follow something of a uneven distribution where
20% of the podcasts get 80% of the views (or something like that).

~~~
ghaff
Teasing apart motivations is hard.

There's definitely the "egoboo"factor, a term from the early days of user-
generated content that has sadly passed out of use

For many, they're definitely a way to increase professional recognition,
promote a consulting business, improve customer engagement/awareness, etc.
i.e. brand building/content marketing

For some, it's a hope that they are going to hit it big though this probably
applies more to YouTube and Instagram. (And, if there is a bubble, this is
probably the main reason.)

The fact that even just a few thousand dollars is worth putting a fair bit of
effort into for many.

Or a complicated mix of all of the above.

------
Tiktaalik
> Hosts aren’t starting shows “because it’s a fun, niche hobby,” he said.
> “They do it to make money or because it will make them an influencer.”

lol I'm pretty sure there are heaps, the NYT just decided not to interview
any.

------
moocowtruck
I'd say so; when I travel I load up a bunch of software related podcasts to
consume the time since I don't really listen to radio. To me it seems many
people say 'lets start a podcast!!!' then their first episode they realize
they need content to talk about. More power to them for doing a podcast, but I
will say many times I'm just listening to people ramble about personal stuff
or whatever.

Good content tends to take some serious prep, I guess is my takeaway

~~~
ghaff
I'm not sure it necessarily needs _serious_ prep but it does need some amount
of prep/planning and discipline not to go off the rails. Interview shows can
be good even when they at least come across as casual conversation about some
specific topic. However, I'd agree that a lot of podcasts have way too much
random chit-chat for my taste.

~~~
moocowtruck
I guess I did exaggerate the serious prep a bit, but I guess I used that term
because with my current schedule it would be tough to fit in.

Every time I do a developer workshop at work I want to do my best, but dang it
takes me a good month of my spare time to get something I feel is worthy of
consuming someone else's time.

I just have a difficult time thinking how I'd do a weekly podcast and keep it
interesting on topic! But I'm sure there are plenty of people better at this
than I am hehe.. At the end of the day though I'm probably happier people keep
producing even if I don't consume it all, just nice to know its there

~~~
ghaff
Weekly is pretty frequent. I aim for about every 2 weeks and am happy with 3.
I find that, by finding interesting guests who can improvise and speak off the
cuff, doing some prep, and keeping things to about 20 minutes it's doable.
Then, it's also sort of part of my day job so spending an hour or so per week
on it isn't a big deal.

------
floren
I recorded 41 episodes of a podcast with some friends of mine. It was a lot of
fun, and because we had a "format" it wasn't just "a couple of friends talkin'
about whatever, especially dick jokes!!!"

We went into it not looking for sponsors or to make money, and we were not
surprised :) It was a _lot_ of work to get all 3 of us together every week to
record, and then to get the episode edited and released on time. We'd
typically record an hour and a half of raw audio, then edit it down to
something closer to an hour, a process which took at least three hours--
basically, whoever was editing the episode that week had to spend a full
evening editing, which was hard for the two hosts with kids.

------
stefan_
I've listened to podcasts for more than 10 years now and every year it's been
either "peaking" or "declining". Meanwhile I just continue to listen.

------
doe88
I've told myself just that recently after trying a couple of recent _Wondery_
podcasts... Too much produced, too much narrated, denaturing the initial idea
and value of podcasts by over-complexifying everything and by emphasizing form
over content.

------
vkaku
And to think I haven't heard one podcast till date. I must be living under a
rock.

~~~
twic
I listened to one! It's basically someone reading out a blog post slowly.

------
unixhero
I keep enjoying every other non MMA Joe Rogan podcast.

------
nytesky
The article does not seem to mention Alex Inc., a main stream network TV show
about starting a podcast with a pretty high caliber star.

And of course, gimlets acquisition by Spotify is probably the nadir.

You know once do you have reliable text to speech for websites and newspapers,
podcast will be decimated. Or if audible goes a Netflix r you know once you
have reliable text to speech for websites and newspapers, podcasts will be
decimated. Or if audible goes a Netflix route.

~~~
ghaff
>You know once do you have reliable text to speech for websites and
newspapers, podcast will be decimated.

Why? It's a different format. There's no shortage of text being read today in
the form of audiobooks by people with a lot better voices than computers are
likely to be able to imitate for a while. Also NPR stories, etc.

------
RandomInteger4
No, but I think we've hit peak news media outlet ...

