
Carpocalypse now: Lyft's founders are right – we're in the endgame for cars - hourislate
https://www.businessinsider.com/carpocalypse-cars-automobile-sales-data-us-europe-2019-3
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Aegaeus10111
Good news. The amount of resources devoted to cars is nuts. Just for parking
in an average city.

We do need transportation but private cars are an incredibly inefficient
solution for most people. Sharing / renting, public transportation and...
walking work great in at least 80% of my needs. I'm gonna guess the same
applies to at least 80% of urban and suburban dwellers (and if not, resources
should be shifted from Free Parking and other car oriented things to excellent
public).

I've lived nearly my entire life without one. I do live in cities but so do
half the population.

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ars
Your experience is not universal. Public transportation covers maybe 5% of my
needs, and that's if I'm being generous.

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Aegaeus10111
Honestly? I walk most palaces. Bad weather is my biggest reason to riding. And
most people in cities can do that much more. Within an hour I can walk to most
of my meetings throughout town. I live in a central-ish spot. Nice, affordable
and walk-able - part of the choice. Driving takes almost as much time. The
trams or metro save time only if the walk is over 30 min - and even at 60 min
save only about half the time at best.

But as I posted, I didn't claim to be some universal example. I guessed 50% of
people live in urban or sub-urban areas - high enough density to make public
transportation practical. And I guessed that walking / public is appropriate
for of transport needs.

Those who live in rural areas and/or have special needs would not be covered
by the 50/80% easily (but I bet a very high percent would be covered by shared
or taxi services)

Owning a car is absurdly inefficient. It sits parked 90% or more of its
existence. We all pay taxes to support massive infrastructure for private cars
- such as street parking in cities and police for drivers who can't stay
within the law and choose to endanger my kids lives for their own convenience.
Our whole view on car ownership is backwards.

I'm not preaching though - it's my choice to spend my money on things I find
more useful than a status symbol parked where it might get stolen, broken
into, and generally cost money. Everyone gets to make their own choices. :-)

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wurst_case
I'm not convinced by this argument. One factor he isn't addressing is that
cars may be getting more reliable, as in people drive them for longer. My
grandmother for instance switched to Toyota 25 years ago and has two cars that
whole time.

Another problem I see is that car sales aren't necessarily in s huge of
downturn as he says. 2016-2017 according to his own graph shows massive growth
and it looks like the UK has returned to 2016 numbers. Considering the weaker
pound and the fear around Brexit, this doesn't seem to me to be all that bad
long-term.

China and Turkey are both having economic downturns along with Britain. I
wonder if he could make the same argument while using economicly stable
countries.

One thing I'm thinking that might aid his argument is that the baby boomers
are beginning to get old enough to stop driving or dying. Could that harm
sales? Also I'd like to see how Lyft came up with the 300k riders who stopped
owning a car.

~~~
Aegaeus10111
I agree with you. Though your grandmother is obviously more sensible than the
average car buyer, she's not representative.

I think 300k is fantasy.

But, that Lyft is actively taking on the car economy is encouraging. They
aren't a band of hippies, it's a business that sees an opportunity in doing
so. They may fail, or they may be what Tesla is to electric cars. That I find
encouraging.

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frosted-flakes
From the article:

> Although extreme, Turkey proves one thing. Today's cars last so long that if
> bad times happen consumers can simply stop buying new ones and get along
> just fine with their old ones.

Is this true? Despite (or perhaps because of) the many improvements in
technology, cars are also becoming more complex. Certainly what I've seen is
that you can't do anything without an expensive diagnostics tool anymore, and
it's harder to get by with simple fixes an average car owner might be able to
do.

For example, I drive a 20 year old VW whose windshield wipers recently decided
to keep going non-stop. Diagnosis was simple: the clicking relay unit under
the steering wheel was malfunctioning. Repair was even simpler: popping open
the relay revealed the simplest, most organised piece of electronics I've ever
seen, and it was clear that all that was necessary was to clean the contacts
on one of the relays and pop it back in the car. Job done.

Compare that to a modern car in 20 years, where any similar problem will
likely require an electrical engineering degree to even diagnose, if planned
obsolescence hasn't done its work by then.

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NicoJuicy
This is exactly why I like older cars instead of new ones.

The car company that make a simple, good, mechanical-& environmental-friendly
car will earn a lot of money.

But they are so concentrated on high-tech and owning the vehicle/dealerships,
that they forget what's truly important for their consumers.

I would love to see a modern Mercedes 190 Electric version, that is easy to
repair.

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jaclaz
Allow me to doubt that Lyft (or Uber) or both actually influence a market
where they do not exist at all or are very, very marginal (like - say -
Turkey) and even if they do, they alter it by 60%:

[https://isturkeysafe.com/Is-Uber-safe-in-Turkey](https://isturkeysafe.com/Is-
Uber-safe-in-Turkey)

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konschubert
I’m afraid that the reduction in demand for cars may also be a result of an
expected economic downturn?

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konschubert
> It's hard to say whether car manufacturing is hurting because the greater
> global economy is faltering, or whether the faltering economy is hurting
> cars.

Hmm, aren’t both parts of the sentence saying the same thing?

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DigiMortal
I'll always want my private vehicle, in the future it will just drive itself.
But I want to own mine. I like to go to Utah and go off roading

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zulln
Cannot you just rent on an extended period of time then? Even if you want to
"go off roading" once in a while, you probably are not constantly using it.

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gpapilion
Subprime car loans may explain the delinquency rise. That business was
expanded hugely in the last 10 years, and was one of Uber major loss areas.

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redsavagefiero
I always want a nice high performance vehicle with luxury features as long as
I can drive. Pub transport is not an option for anything but work and cars are
one of the last pleasures in the gen X life.

