
24% of Tesla Model 3 orders have been canceled, analyst says - x43b
https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/19/technology/business/tesla-downgrade/index.html
======
patagonia
Said another way, Tesla still has _existing_ orders that will keep it busy for
a couple years, by which time the Model 3 line will be profitable. Which is to
say, Tesla will have succeeded in creating a mass market electric vehicle and
turning a profit while doing so, thus changing the landscape to one in which
electric vehicles are in some instances preferred to internal combustion
vehicles, and so competitors follow suit. Thus accomplishing Tesla’s stated
goal of: “to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing
compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible”.

Which is jaw dropping.

But everyone is still jumping on the schadenfreuden wagon, why idk.

In other news. While you were sleeping SpaceX has a successful launch of one
of their block 5 rockets. Oh and landed stage one on a moving target in the
ocean. While in parallel developing a rocket to take people to mars.

This is insane. And we should all enjoy it while it lasts. Because it’s not a
given that these type of accomplishments happen any given day, year, or
decade.

~~~
microdrum
More and more I agree with this.

Google and Facebook are boring monopolists. It makes sense that we enjoy their
failures.

But Tesla is a really amazing company. The media coverage makes more sense
when you realize that most journalists are deeply unhappy people who are,
internally, banging their heads against the wall as a result of never having
learned any practical skills. They viscerally hate the idea of progress,
because by definition they will not be part of progress. They much prefer that
the world be stuck.

~~~
eganist
Wait, what? If the world stayed the same, there wouldn't be anything novel to
cover.

The survival of journalism is inherently motivated by a need to keep things
changing, which is why most outlets by-and-large are either progressive or
reactionary: it's change either way.

~~~
microdrum
Science journalists, of whom there are comparatively few, cover new things.

Most journalists cover vituperation, politics, and angst.

~~~
some_account
They take press releases from Nasa, rewrites them, publishes. Profit.

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bilal4hmed
$60000 is a lot to pay for a $35000 car. The insides look at like a nissan or
a honda. At $60k the benz and audi do feel luxury as compared to this.

~~~
askafriend
Luxury for me means a touchscreen that works, a media/navigation system that
doesn't make me want to gouge my eyes out, a car that adapts to my preferences
at every step of the way, evolves as technology evolves around it and an
experience that was deliberately crafted from start to finish.

Luxury for me does not mean fancy stitching, special leather, a mechanical
clock on the dashboard for no reason, software that doesn't get updated,
exquisite wood grain in random places, lots of knobs, shiny trims, "dealership
experience", or 4 years of free oil changes.

I think you'll see the definition of luxury change as our concept of mobility
changes. Traditional markers of luxury won't matter anymore and that will
leave incumbents who have traditional luxury as their core competence in a
weird place.

~~~
tzahola
This. Traditional “luxury” cars are like those Nokia phones they made with
gold plates and swarowski “crystals”. Nothing but gimmicks, and a laughable
feature set compared to an iPhone.

~~~
Fins
Except that the Tesla's huge touchscreen is about as usable as the Vertu
phone. And unlike Vertu, Tesla has no precious materials in it. Tesla has the
innards of an old Hyundai.

I can understand when you laud Tesla for being emissions-free, or for high
torque, or for figuring out how to cool Panasonic's battery packs properly.
But pretending that it is a luxury car is just silly.

------
guard0g
I cancelled, but only because I want an extended battery version with
autopilot. I'm sure others cancelled their orders for the base version to
speed up delivery.

~~~
dayaz36
You have it backwards. They're only selling the long range version right now.
Standard range won't be out till next year

~~~
i_cant_speel
It sounds like he cancelled the standard range order to order the long range
one.

~~~
dkoston
There is no distinction in the reservation. When your reservation becomes
available, you can configure any “trim” that is currently available. That was
the long range first, and now long range and performance.

------
jonathankoren
I've been considering a Tesla, but I can't pull the trigger. The 3 looks
boring S knockoff, and have been plagued with quality issues. Supposedly the
issues are more under control now, but the early 3s in the parking lot at work
have crooked body panels. It turned me off.

I do like that Tesla made an electric car that doesn't look stupid and doesn't
suck. For far too long all that existedd were citicars[0] and NEVs[1]. Also,
the diamond lane sticker is very seductive. The thing that I can't stand is
the interior. It's so empty. The infotainment sucks just as hard as legacy
manufacturers (knockoff Pandora, shitty maps, stupid apps like Paint), doesn't
have any gadgets (e.g. blindspot detection), and then the standout features
features are gimmicks. An autodrive that falls in the uncanny valley, a self
park that required to me to hug bumpers on a crowded parking lot, and summon,
which is essentially a three four line macro (although, that is something).

Ultimately, the car is disappointing. I guess I'll just wait and get a Porsche
Taycan[2], which is ironic because it wouldn't exist without Tesla.

[0]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citicar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citicar)

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neighborhood_Electric_Vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neighborhood_Electric_Vehicle)

[2] [https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/future-
cars/a12778510/...](https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/future-
cars/a12778510/2020-porsche-mission-e-news-photos-price-release/)

------
tpae
How can he be so certain of this? Analysis doesn't make it a fact, and even
Tesla spokesperson is denying it..

~~~
jonathankoren
Would you honestly believe a Tesla spokesperson? If these happened, seems like
it would show up in a quarterly earnings call. Those things have to be
somewhat trustworthy. Now if they don't deny the claims, then I'd worry a bit,
no matter what the spin is.

------
AndrewKemendo
_according to Needham & Co. analyst Rajvindra Gill. Tesla disputes that"_

I'm trying to find some substantiation for the claim but I'm not finding
anything. The closest I see is from BI that there was a "note to clients." The
claim is falsifiable so ostensibly this analyst has information other people
don't have somehow.

I'd sure like these analysts to show their work, when they do these
"projections." The news media and traders seem to respond to them, so there
must be something to it, but I'm incredulous generally.

Anyone have any insight on whether these analysts can actually substantiate
their projections?

[1] [http://uk.businessinsider.com/10-things-european-markets-
jul...](http://uk.businessinsider.com/10-things-european-markets-
july-20-2018-7?IR=T)

~~~
gamblor956
Tesla could easily refute the numbers by revealing actual cancellation
numbers. The fact that they haven't, legally speaking (referring to SEC
disclosure requirements), means the numbers are on point (but might have
different significant if explained in a different context).

~~~
AndrewKemendo
There's too many dependencies in your conjecture to make a strong argument for
that being the proof that the numbers are correct.

If Tesla executives don't care about this guy or his projections then they
wouldn't think it's worth their effort to respond.

It seems like the finance world's version of Twitter trolls.

------
twblalock
With all the hype around the original preorder, I suspect a lot of people who
preordered were not serious anyway, or fell victim to wishful thinking about
their ability to afford the car.

So in any case, even without the production delays, a higher than normal rate
of cancellations would not be surprising.

------
rustcharm
Many mainstream car companies, particularly GM with its all-electric Chevy
Bolt have cars with roughly comparable specs to the Model 3 and you get get
one today. The allure of getting something now instead of waiting surely
contributes to some of these cancellations.

~~~
ebikelaw
Yep. You can walk into any Chevy dealer nationwide right now and walk out in
an hour with a Bolt for under $35k. There are 114 of them sitting in inventory
within 25 miles of my house, according to Chevy's web site.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Telling that hundreds of thousands of people will wait for a Model 3 while
Bolts sit on the lot.

~~~
ebikelaw
It certainly says a lot about marketing and mass psychology. But then again,
anyone who will pre-order any kind of product is a self-identifying irrational
economic actor. There's no accounting for them.

~~~
toomuchtodo
If humans were rational economic actors, we wouldn’t have exhaustive
behavioral studies on how to nudge their decisions towards more positive
outcomes.

------
woodandsteel
This guy Gill says Tesla is going to go bankrupt because no one wants to buy
its cars, and he says it is going to go bankrupt because it won't be able to
produce cars fast enough to meet demand.

I wonder how much of his total fortune he has bet on shorting Tesla stock. It
sounds like he is getting pretty desperate.

------
usermac
The more I looked at the 3 the more I saw its less than desirable points. I
really wanted to like it.

~~~
ryanhuff
Such as? After having driven one for 6 weeks now, there isn't much not to
like.

~~~
jonathankoren
I think the touch screen on the 3 looks like someone glued an aftermarket
stand to the dash, and stuck a crappy android tablet in it. Tesla interiors
are subpar when compared to other luxury manufactures, and the infotainment
system sucks just as hard as everyone else, but with more knockoffs (Slacker
Radio). Just give me Apple CarPlay, and be done with it.

------
_ph_
Besides that I wonder how accurate the claim of the cancelled orders is, Tesla
at the beginning of the month clearly stated that they had about 420k
reservations. Whatever the number of cancelled reservations are, it seems that
the number of open reservations is quite stable.

It is not a surprise that there are quite a few cancellations. People might
need a car more urgently, or just reconsidered. On the other side, of course
people haven't stopped putting down reservations. And so far, Tesla has not
marketed the car.

This is just about to change, Tesla has prepared 100 Model 3 Performance to be
set up at the Tesla stores for offering test drives for the first time, since
the Model 3 came to market. That is certainly going to create more orders, as
most people wouldn't place an order without a proper test drive.

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solarkraft
This rate is extraordinarily low.

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kuro68k
The Model 3 is looking a bit over priced now, with cars like the Kona and
coming Lead 64 offering similar features, performance and better range for
less money.

~~~
ricardobeat
Performance? Not even close. The Kona will have a time of 9.7s for 0-100km/h,
vs 5.1s for the Model 3. Much slower charging too.

What is a Lead 64?

~~~
kuro68k
Kona confirmed for 7.4 0-100.

------
samnwa
I have been driving a Model 3 since for 3 months now and it's the most amazing
car I have ever had. I switched from a BMW 3 series, which is a no contest
comparison. The autopilot is the killer app for driving long distances on the
freeway especially in traffic. I let a friend drive for a while and then,
after driving home in his own car, said 'I feel like I just saw a washing
machine and now I have to wash my clothes by hand.'

~~~
masonic
BMW's target market is driving enthusiasts. You prefer to let the _car_ do the
driving, so it makes sense that you prefer the Tesla.

