
Texas Is Too Windy and Sunny for Old Energy Companies to Make Money - JumpCrisscross
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-06-20/texas-is-too-windy-and-sunny-for-old-energy-companies-to-make-money
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toomuchtodo
It appears we're at the inflection point where even natural gas (in addition
to coal) is getting pushed out of the generation mix. Good! About time.

This may require paying natural gas generators for their ability to quickly
throttle to back renewables, but only as a temporary measure until utility
scale batteries fall in cost.

~~~
saryant
Natural gas energy can be transported much more easily than solar or wind. As
more export capacity comes online in the US I would expect natural gas
projects in the US to continue apace even if domestic consumption stays flat
or declines.

~~~
toomuchtodo
There are multiple transmission line projects in progress in the US to drag
wind energy to major load centers. Solar can be produced anywhere of course.

Natgas exports _may_ increase, but it appears everyone is getting off of
fossil asap.

You cannot compete against an energy source with no fuel cost.

~~~
majewsky
> Solar can be produced anywhere of course.

I take issue with "of course". It will be always be wildly more economic to
produce solar power in places with a lot of sun. And without checking, my
ballpark guess would be that you get at least 10 times more solar energy out
of a panel in Texas than a panel in, say, Canada. Our eyes are just so good at
adapting to different light levels that we don't notice the different energy
densities that much.

~~~
SAI_Peregrinus
It would also be pretty difficult to use solar in Murmansk, Russia, for about
a quarter of the year (it's within the arctic circle, so the sun is below the
horizon for most (or all near the solstice) of the day during the winter.

And it can actually be less efficient if there's too much sun, solar panel
efficiency decreases with temperature. Solar thermal also depends on
temperature differential, so if the environment around the plant is too hot
the efficiency drops.

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bdauvergne
Noboby wants to live in Murmansk.

~~~
SAI_Peregrinus
True, but I'm being pedantic about the use of "anywhere". Also it's a pretty
important port for Russia, though of course the population is small at only
300k people.

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davidf18
I wonder what the economics would be without the federal tax incentives for
wind and solar. Does anyone know?

EDIT: Someone above provided a link that provides the figure I was looking
for:

"Between 2010 and 2016, subsidies for solar were between 10¢ and 88¢ per kWh
and subsidies for wind were between 1.3¢ and 5.7¢ per kWh. Subsidies for coal,
natural gas and nuclear are all between 0.05¢ and 0.2¢ per kWh over all
years." [1]

I wonder how much of a subsidy there is for LED lighting. A lot of energy goes
for incandescent lighting.

Also, there should be a lot of subsidies to replace heaters in building
burning #6 and #4 fuel oil which is very, very dirty and pollution (NYC where
I live banned #6 a few years ago but #4 is allowed to persist until 2030 I
think).

[https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2017/05/30/why-do-
fe...](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2017/05/30/why-do-federal-
subsidies-make-renewable-energy-so-costly/#69da9278128c)

~~~
leephillips
It's a complex question. In trying to answer it, one should keep in mind that
the tax incentives for fossil fuel production dwarf the $15 billion per year
or so that supports renewable energy. In addition, fossil fuels impose an
estimated $200 billion/yr in social costs (external costs), in the form of
pollution, etc. And it would be hard to estimate how much of our defense
spending should be attributed to the need to secure the middle Eastern oil
supply.

~~~
rayiner
The Harvard study estimated the negative externalities of coal at 200-500
billion annually. The study estimates the effective subsidy from not including
these costs at 9-27 cents per kilowatt hours.

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fencepost
Very amusing that the article ends with

    
    
       “It’s pretty slim pickings right now,” 
       Ferguson said. “God is not manufacturing 
       more coastal property.”
    

Part of the concern for renewable energy folks is that you could argue that
God _is_ arranging for more coastal property, though not perhaps in ways
useful to wind farmers on the Texas coast.

~~~
masklinn
> Part of the concern for renewable energy folks is that you could argue that
> God is arranging for more coastal property

Not really though, the overall coastline length will shrink so assuming
constant coastal property size, the number will go down not up.

~~~
TazeTSchnitzel
Climate change will make climates in parts of the globe more extreme though,
no? Is that beneficial to wind power?

~~~
masklinn
No. More extreme = less consistent, and likely too violent, these are not
things you want for wind power.

You want consistent wind within the efficiency band of your turbines. Wind
spikes are not a good thing, best case your turbines go into protection (they
brake and the blades are feathered), worst case they're on fire. Significant
gusts also increase wear of the blades, aging them prematurely and increasing
the risk of catastrophic failure.

~~~
chaosbutters314
what about offshore wind farms? More water wouldn't be "so bad". haha. Plus,
there was a cool idea about how they could be use in mass to mitigate
hurricanes' strength to some degree but I'm not sure how feasible that is

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shepardrtc
After driving through Texas last year, I really can't overstate just how many
wind turbines there are, and how windy it is. I stopped at a little rest stop
right in the middle of the state - in the middle of the day - and I was nearly
blown over getting out of the car. And the number of turbines... Just amazing.
Miles and miles and miles. It really looked like an endless landscape of
turbines.

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SOLAR_FIELDS
The last lines of the article elicited a bit of cynicism:

"That’s because the market is so oversupplied that it’s even difficult for the
wind guys to make money at these electricity rates. And besides, it’s hard to
acquire land by the water at reasonable prices."

“It’s pretty slim pickings right now,” Ferguson said. “God is not
manufacturing more coastal property".

In 70 years it will be nice and cheap at this rate, which is ironically and
sadly just the sort of problem cheap wind power would help alleviate.

~~~
dwighttk
>In 70 years it will be nice and cheap at this rate

what?

~~~
SOLAR_FIELDS
The implication is that the rise in sea level will make those formerly coastal
areas effectively worthless.

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1024core
> It blows the most in the dead of night, precisely when there’s the least
> demand for electricity. That’s true for just about every wind-blown spot
> across the U.S., from the foothills of the Tehachapi Mountains in California
> to the coastal plains of North Carolina.

I live in Northern California (SF). Winds don't start until about 1pm or so.
And it's almost never windy after 8pm.

I think this pattern holds for most coastal places, because as the sun reaches
the peak, it heats up land, forcing the air over the land to rise; but the
water doesn't heat up as much, and hence winds come in from offshore, to
replace the air rising above the land.

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anon3939
Seems to be a smart idea, really allowing capitalism to thrive... \-
[https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2017/05/30/why-do-
fe...](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2017/05/30/why-do-federal-
subsidies-make-renewable-energy-so-costly/#35791d2f128c) \-
[http://www.nationalreview.com/article/436228/wind-energy-
sub...](http://www.nationalreview.com/article/436228/wind-energy-subsidies-
billions-and-billions-your-tax-dollars)

~~~
chc
In the absence of a fair pollution tax, I don't think subsidies for less-
harmful technologies are necessarily bad. Unless you are actively in favor of
the tragedy of the commons, these negative externalities have to be addressed
somehow.

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jostmey
I live in Dallas Texas and buy renewable (wind or solar) electricity from the
grid. It cost only marginally more

~~~
davidf18
I'm assuming this is a joke since there aren't separate power lines for
renewable energy. :-)

~~~
jostmey
No it is not. As a consumer in Dallas we get to choose which power company we
want to buy from. Basically, we have to buy our share of electricity that is
used from the grid.

~~~
davidf18
But in this case, you are simply throwing your money away since the green
producers aren't going to produce more energy because you and other consumers
are paying them to. They will produce the same amount regardless.

In that case, better to give the money to some charity that say, replaces
incandescent bulbs with the newest LED lamps starting with your own house and
office if you haven't already converted. Also, better to take mass transit
than use the car.

BTW, our brilliant NY Govenor Cuomo is putting a lot more carbon-based fuel
back on-line. Because nuclear is more expensive than gas powered generation,
he is removing the Indian Point nuclear power plant from the grid. This plant
generates 1/4 the electricity for NYC and adjacent Westchester County.

The population of NYC is 8.5 million, Westchester County is about 1 million.
So removing the carbon-free power for about 2.5 million people.

All will be replaced with carbon-based fuel generation. So much for people
like you trying to be responsible and green.

~~~
jostmey
Are you trying to tell me that they won't build more windmills if that's what
people are paying for?

~~~
hueving
Are you suggesting the transmission company would refuse the electricity from
the wind mills if enough people aren't paying for the clean option?

I'm curious how this works. What happens if you pay for clean and the wind
isn't blowing at night? What happens if everyone paying for clean turns on
their appliances and the demand outstrips the clean supply?

I highly doubt there are blackouts in these occasions so it seems like someone
is getting screwed.

~~~
jt2190
There is a secondary marketplace of "green energy futures".

edit: Going from memory... The fine print on your electric bill in Texas says
something like: "If we, the electricity provider, don't have enough renewable
energy to meet your current need, we promise to offset the amount of non-
renewable energy we provide to you now with a future purchase of the same
amount of renewable energy from an electricity generator." In other words, you
get the electricity today, they get the money today, but they have to buy more
renewable energy in the future.

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agentgt
They didn't really go into the wind surfing enough to point out why Texas is
actually damn good for water sailing sports.

One of the non obvious reasons is the inner gulf coast has very little chop.
Chop (which is basically little waves of water turbulence at the surface as
well as constant little swells) massively decreases boat/board speed even for
planing boats/boards.

Of course large swells are generally worse (with some exceptions... like
wanting to do tricks and if your going downwind).

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api
I think we're in the early stages of a genuine disruptive event.

"They were actually worried about an 'energy crisis' back then. Didn't they
realize free energy falls from the sky all day long?"

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rbanffy
I assume the natural gas people are fighting against shallow-water coastal
wind generation. That would add a lot of surface area to build and could
probably supply more than 50% of the energy mix.

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notadoc
I'm sure the politicians will solve that problem.

~~~
GoToRO
Yep. I've seen some documentary where they said that in a very sunny region of
Spain it was too expensive to put solar panels on your own roof due to taxes.
The large companies made sure it was not feasible for home owners to do so.

~~~
jononor
It's unfortunately a nation wide law, so all regions are affected.

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london888
This is such good news.

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Katastrophial
Texas is right now the 5th ring of hell in the summer

