
A natural experiment study of the effects of imprisonment on violence - arunbahl
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-019-0604-8
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chrisco255
My theory is that prison is only effective on people that are already fairly
morally grounded and with pretty healthy social and mental dynamics. So those
folks can and do bounce back.

But prison does nothing to help with mental illness or help give folks a sense
of community once they're out.

~~~
PorterDuff
They may have a sense of community, it just might be one that is harmful to
your own.

My own theory is that prison has been set up to remove potential criminals
from the street, chosen via a demographic of
education/ethnicity/wealth/gender/aggressiveness, during their prime years of
being a nuisance. The results don't have to be particularly fair.

There's no real intention of transformation or revenge, just a form of
quarantine.

Looking at a chart of incarceration rate over time and murder rate over time,
this last a better indicator of crime than most, you can make a case that the
big ramp up in jailing somewhat matches the peak and fall of murders. It's
tough to find causalities in anything, but I rather like that one.

~~~
stcredzero
_They may have a sense of community, it just might be one that is harmful to
your own._

By some accounts, prison is an opportunity to network and gain mentors and
knowledge towards furthering a career as a criminal.

 _There 's no real intention of transformation or revenge, just a form of
quarantine._

If considered as a criminal networking opportunity, it's likely to transform
people into those who would seek revenge, and it would have the opposite
effect intended by quarantine.

EDIT: I'm reminded of a folk dance group I was once a part of. Usually, we
were obscure, and the one or two new people who might show up would become
immersed in what we did, and would quickly learn to dance. Once, there was a
local newspaper article about us, and 16 newcomers showed up all at once. It
was very difficult that evening, and I think a lot of the newcomers didn't
learn much.

If we want incarceration to make people less criminal, not more criminal, then
the prisoners should not be spending their time with criminals. The prisoners
should be spending their time with mentors, teachers, and counselors.

~~~
PorterDuff
By 'revenge' I'm referring to revenge by society by putting people in an
unpleasant situation for a term.

~~~
stcredzero
_By 'revenge' I'm referring to revenge by society by putting people in an
unpleasant situation for a term._

Sure, but revenge tends to beget revenge in a vicious circle. This is why
forgiveness is key to robust societal systems, when imperfect communication is
taken into account.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tit_for_tat#Tit_for_two_tats](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tit_for_tat#Tit_for_two_tats)

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RcouF1uZ4gsC
>Being sentenced to prison had no significant effects on arrests or
convictions for violent crimes after release from prison, but imprisonment
modestly reduced the probability of violence if comparisons included the
effects of incapacitation during imprisonment.

So in the final accounting, probation increases the probability of violence
while imprisonment reduces it. Imprisonment reduces violence while the
offender is in prison, and it doesn't seem like it increases arrests or
convictions afterward.

~~~
fifnir
In final accounting, in the words of the authors:

These results suggest that for individuals on the current policy margin
between prison and probation, imprisonment is an ineffective long-term
intervention for violence prevention, as it has, on balance, no rehabilitative
or deterrent effects after release.

~~~
SiVal
Yes, the words of the authors. But the final accounting according to the
_data_ of the authors: during incarceration they commit no crimes against
society and after incarceration they resume committing crime at the same rate
as if they had not been locked up. So, longer incarceration reduces crime.

I don't know if that conclusion is actually true or not. It seems as though it
would be as long as criminality didn't _increase_ after incarceration to an
extent that more than canceled the reduction during incarceration, but they
claim that doesn't happen. Well, okay then, longer sentences reduce crime by,
as they say, "incapacitating" the criminal during his incarceration.

They seem to be burying that lede.

~~~
fifnir
> So, longer incarceration reduces crime.

Killing them would also reduce crime
([https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/cells.png](https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/cells.png))
but I don't think that this is enough of a metric to judge something as good
for society

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siedes
What if we had prison cities where prisoners can live "freely" and have their
own economies and stuff? Let's see how they like trying to live normal lives
with other people who have no qualms about stealing and killing to get what
they want, just like they may have done themselves to innocent people before
they were imprisoned. Will the criminals learn to get along or will they end
up killing each other? I wouldn't care because they're in the prison city and
not anywhere near me and other normal people, which is what prison is for
right? Maybe we can even free those who prove themselves to be outstanding
citizens in those prison cities.

Just a thought.

~~~
p1necone
You seem to be under the impression that the prison population is made up
primarily of violent thieves and murderers - that is not the case.

~~~
siedes
We'll have nonviolent prison cities separate from the violent ones. :)

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swayvil
Prison is cheap torture. That's the long and short of it.

Torture is traumatic. Traumatized people are violent.

Simple.

