
Down hundreds of staff, Weather Service ‘teetering on the brink of failure’ - cryptoz
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/10/26/down-hundreds-of-staff-weather-service-teetering-on-the-brink-of-failure-labor-union-says/?utm_term=.28628bdad950
======
iamthirsty
> The National Weather Service Employees Organization, its labor union, said
> the lack of staff is taking a toll on forecasting operations and that the
> agency is “for the first time in its history teetering on the brink of
> failure.” Managers are being forced to scale back certain operations, and
> staff are stressed and overworked.

> “It’s gotten so bad that we’re not going to be able to provide service that
> two years ago we were able to provide to public, emergency managers and
> media,” said Dan Sobien, the president of the union. “We’ve never been in
> that position before.”

It makes me deeply discouraged that something so vital to life in general is
almost impossible to keep staffed (mostly because of a lack of funds), yet the
military's budget increased by $54 Billion this year — to a total of $639
Billion for FY2018.

[1]:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States#Budget_request_for_FY2018)

~~~
bryanlarsen
The article quotes the union “understaffing is not due to underfunding”

~~~
cryptoz
As peterwwillis points out below, a part of it is due to a direct Trump order
to not hire any staff earlier this year.

~~~
peterwwillis
Both are correct. Funding is not the issue, but the Trump order did exacerbate
the issue, as well as the lack of nominating key positions in NOAA and NWS.

~~~
dmix
Both being correct does not make them both equally correct.

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aezell
If you go to the USAJOBS site and search for National Weather Service, you get
about 270 results. If you then limit that to jobs that are open to the public,
you get just under a hundred jobs. So, I think both sides are telling A truth.

The NWS says there are around 270 open positions. That is demonstrably true.

The union is saying there are about 700 open positions. They might think there
are vacancies for which requisitions have not yet been made.

Perhaps, therein lies the discrepancy. And it speaks to the rest of the odd
financing and accounting discussed in the article.

~~~
dmix
Are union jobs like that really all open to the public on sites like USAJOBS?
I was just reading an article about how many them are handed out through
connections to other union members, it's usually the same group of tight-
knight union workers on every public works project.

~~~
acdha
> many of them are handed out through connections to other union member

Government hiring doesn’t work like that. Positions are usually open to
everyone (or at least US citizens) or only existing staff.

~~~
gebeeson
There are many positions that are in effect only for those already in the
employ of the contract. Either lateral or promotion but only for an 'insider'.
This is not particular to this single contract but can be applicable for all
contracts depending on many factors.

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timmaah
Why is the headline here missing "labor union says"

The actual Weather Service seems to think they are doing just fine.

“Let me state emphatically that we would never take an action that would
jeopardize the services we provide to emergency managers and the public,” she
said. “NWS is taking definitive steps to ensure the health and well-being of
our employees through guidance to local managers on scheduling and
flexibility.”

~~~
techwizrd
Also, from the article:

> The vacancy situation has not gone unnoticed by Congress. In its 2018 fiscal
> year budget markup for the Weather Service, the Senate Appropriations
> Committee wrote that the “extended vacancies are unacceptable — particularly
> when the Committee has provided more than adequate resources and direction
> to fill vacancies expeditiously for the past several years.”

It looks like Congress agrees that the Weather Service is understaffed.

> Martin said staff morale is in the tank. “Some people have been denied
> vacations, because there are not enough bodies to fill shifts,” he said. “I,
> myself, worked a 15-hour day about a week ago. You get a lot less sleep. You
> start to wonder if you’re safe on the road. You don’t see your loved ones,
> which eats into family life.”

If this is even remotely true, it definitely seems they're understaffed
despite the statement from the Weather Service. Of course the Weather Service
would put out a statement they're doing fine. I see no reason as to why we
should take their word for it over the word of Congressional committees and
actual employees.

~~~
timmaah
Congress needs to take some action then. Perhaps replace the head of the
organization that believes they are fulfilling their mission correctly.

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th0ma5
This has wide and serious ramifications for business. Private weather data is
nice, but most of it is derived from NOAA resources.

------
dmitrygr
Keep in mind, it is not just your weather channel and your little Weather
Widget on your iPhone that is at stake here.

They also provide forecasts that your airliner uses to plan safe flights.

------
peterwwillis
_" the National Weather Service had 216 vacant positions it could not fill due
to a governmentwide hiring freeze imposed by the Trump administration,
according to a recently released document."_
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-
ene...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-
energy-202/2017/09/27/the-energy-202-trump-s-hiring-freeze-shrunk-national-
weather-service-staff-before-hurricanes-hit/59cabf8330fb0468cea81c01/)

 _" The Weather Service’s head count finally stabilized in 2016 [...] But the
staffing dip resumed in 2017, falling from 3,425 in December to 3,368 in
August,"_

 _" Staffing had declined so much that the Government Accountability Office
wrote in May that employees were challenged in their ability “to complete key
tasks.”"_

 _" “There's no question that the hiring freeze had an effect,” said Dan
Sobien, NWSEO president. “But really it was the straw that broke the camel's
back.” He added, “The camel was already weighed down to the ground.”_

 _" The National Hurricane Center, a Weather Service division, has been led by
an acting director since May. An acting career official is heading NOAA until
President Trump nominates and the Senate confirms a permanent replacement.
Trump has waited longer than any other president to fill that role."_

 _" In either case, the vacancies at the Weather Service were numerous enough,
even before Trump was inaugurated, for the GAO to audit the agency's hiring
practices."_

 _" In July, the Senate Appropriations Committee wrote in a report that
lawmakers are “very concerned with the continued number of employee vacancies”
even though Congress has provided enough money to fill them."_

------
creaghpatr
Wonder where The Weather Company fits in here- after all, they seem to have no
trouble hiring at a rapid clip- I assume most people get their weather from
the Weather Company but I live in Atlanta where it's located so it's a given
here.

I'm guessing the private sector pay is better, wouldn't be surprised if they
were poaching NWS employees.

~~~
TYPE_FASTER
I wonder if TWC uses NWS data in its forecasting.

~~~
maxerickson
NWS runs the preponderance of weather radar in the US.

They probably run all of it, I'm just not sure if there are any independent
ones.

~~~
rplst8
They don't run all of it. Many city news channels have their own radar and
forecast teams. That's not to say I don't think the NWS is an essential
government function.

~~~
awj
> Many city news channels have their own radar and forecast teams.

While this is true, it's probably also worth pointing out that those forecasts
likely depend on NWS data in some fashion.

------
novaleaf
i live in Woodinville, a suburb of Seattle, and have noticed over the last
couple years that the weather forecast is getting really bad. Often (maybe
once/month) showing 0% chance of rain when it's actually pouring rain. The
temperature forecast also seems suspect, but I don't own a thermometer so
can't provide numbers there.

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miguelrochefort
We still need humans for weather forecast?

~~~
cryptoz
Yes, very much so. Computer models are not forecasts, and it would be a
terrible state of affairs if we did not have human forecasters to make
forecasts.

~~~
Pyxl101
Why are computer models _not_ forecasts? Why would it be a terrible state of
affairs not to have human forecasters?

More specifically, what role do humans play in digesting the output of the
computer model and producing the forecast? What adjustments or corrections are
made to what the model says is going to happen, and based on what reasoning?
"My gut tells me the tornado is going to move east, even though the computer
says it will move west with an estimated 98% likelihood"?

Are the humans doing more than creating a human-consumable verbal summary of
what the computer model says will happen -- explaining the severity and
location of the predicted weather in human terms?

~~~
cos2pi
Computer models certainly produce forecasts, but humans are needed to
interpret these forecasts.

At each National Weather Service office, forecasters typically use model
output to guide their daily forecast products, such as temperatures and
precipitation probabilities. However, these forecasters are aware of smaller-
scale nuances of their forecast area, such as topographic influences, land-sea
interactions or urban heat island effects, which models may struggle to
resolve. Human knowledge of model limitations helps to produce a better
forecast.

A further example would be hurricane forecasting, where National Hurricane
Center forecasts typically outperform most models (see
[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml)
for starters).

~~~
Pyxl101
Thanks for the details.

------
pasbesoin
Given that government employees -- not to mention political appointees in
transitory leadership positions -- are increasingly enjoined, mandated, and
coerced to tow the party line (of the party in power), I'd pay a fair amount
of attention to what the employees' union has to say about the matter. A voice
with substantial political clout of its own, as well as some "anonym-ization"
from individual comments subject to punishment including career termination.

There is separate reporting to the effect of staff becoming extremely
stretched and overworked with the combination of hurricanes and fires that
recently hit.

There are the reported proposed cuts to NOAA/NCAR budgets of 15+%. Cuts
threatening to cripple current data collection efforts and ongoing innovation
and developments in same. At a time when year-upon-year environmental and
weather circumstances make increasingly clear that we need a better and more
detailed understanding of what is going on (and of how we might deal with it).

U.S. Government weather services provide the backbone upon which private,
commercial forecasting builds -- when they are not simply repackaging and
repeating the government-provided information.

Those services are also critical to the ongoing management and execution of
many commercial sectors within the U.S. economy. Agriculture, shipping,
transport, even the "dirty old fossil fuel" sectors. Forecasting was wrong one
one of our recent winters experiencing extreme cold spells particularly east
of the Rocky Mountains, and propane supplies that had not been bolstered ran
extremely low, leading to dramatic price hikes and shortages and considerable
economic distress downstream not just to households but to businesses, i.e.
other productive sectors.

These services are vital to a planful, productive execution of our economy.

But, as in many cases, the "government is bad" people refuse to acknowledge
this.

Look at the EPA. Those folks now can't speak publicly without "official sign-
off" of a political leadership. Politics before science.

Where present, set your sentiments about "unions" aside and look at why this
may be the primary or only route via which you are hearing about problems,
from the people in these institutions.

P.S. I forgot to mention: While I have mixed feelings about over-doing the
"soft skills" aspects of the following, part of the head-count concern right
now includes expanding efforts to translate data into communication that will
make people take pro-active action to minimize their own risks. For a
burgeoning emergency, making it clearer where may flood and what that will
look like, so that, for example, people evacuate before they are stranded and
at imminent physical risk necessitating risky and costly rescue. Reassessing
and better communicating environmental risks for specific areas, to spur more
pro-active zoning and other regulation as well as individual actions such as
seeking flood insurance (before an uninsured person ends up needing a
government-funded bail-out).

~~~
loco5niner
I would think it would be "toe" the party line ;-)

~~~
pasbesoin
I stand corrected. I hesitated over that, but was moving too fast and too
tired to get it right.

I also seem to be making more keying mistakes in my comments, recently. "that"
as opposed to "than", for example, IIRC from another recent comment.

Maybe be a medication I started a couple of months ago...

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loco5niner
.... according to it's union.

