
Ukraine Mobilizes After Putin's 'Declaration of War' - ytNumbers
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/02/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA1Q1E820140302
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huhtenberg
Nothing will happen. Ukraine now is even deeper stalemate than it was two
weeks ago.

If they enter open confrontation with Russia, they can kiss their chances of
EU integration good bye. The last thing EU needs now is to take side of a
country in an open war conflict _against Russia_.

If they stay clear of a military conflict, but try to get into the EU, Russia
will just hike gas prices, tax or close their imports and Ukraine will be a
deepest financial butt of its entire existence. Again, would EU be even
slightly interested in getting Ukraine on board? Rhetorical question.

Ukraine is a strategic buffer between Russia and EU. Russia won't let Ukraine
go. Period. Therefore, Ukraine has exactly two options - stick with Russia or
split into Western (Ukrainian) and Easter (Russian) parts. But then, if they
split, then most of the industry and resources is in the East, so Western
Ukraine will again come out free, liberated and utterly broke. Its chances of
getting into EU? Slim to none. Whichever way you slice it, they just can't get
into EU.

~~~
feider
Something is already happened. "Nothing will happen" -mantra does not add any
value to analysis. Russia has reacted very unpredictable so far and outcomes
might be far from what you describe. Ukraine is also more than mere economical
issue to EU. In these kind of situations politics comes before business, not
the other way around.

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sillysaurus3
Isn't it a bit hypocritical that the US should tell Russia not to get
involved? We had no right to go into Iraq, for example.

If an entity is able to exercise political power, and there's an advantage to
do so, then it seems inevitable that the entity will always do so.

~~~
gaius
I am reminded of Thucydides, writing nearly 2500 years ago.

[https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/melian.htm](https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/melian.htm)

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melian_dialogue](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melian_dialogue)

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randallsquared
I wonder if there's regret in Ukraine now that they removed their deterrence
capability[1]? Can there be any doubt that this wouldn't be happening if
Ukraine could use nuclear weapons as a last resort?

[1]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine)

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coldcode
They have no chance of winning. Putin will not stop until he gets what he's
after, he's a power dictator. When you play by the rules you get beaten by
someone who cares little for nice rules.

~~~
Demiurge
What rules? Is there a rule that says if you have enough guns and people and
can storm the parliament you can usurp a democratically elected president?

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tty
Not saying you're wrong but there are many issues with "democracy" in states
under Russian control. Yanukovych's main opponent during his first stint as a
presidential candidate was "miraculously" poisoned. Federal units within
Russia that are clearly against Russian rule regularly give 100% of all their
votes to Putin during "democratic" elections (with turnouts reaching above
100%), and so on and so on.

~~~
Demiurge
Sure, there are these problems with Chechen region (not Ukrain). But the last
presidential elections of Yanukovich, because of the 2004 fiasco, were
extremely closely watched by very many groups and were internationally
acknowledged as legitimate.

