

Facebook Will Disappear by 2020 - kenhty
https://mashable.com/2012/06/04/analyst-facebook-disappear/

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abraxasz
Ok, so basically the very deep and smart analysis consists in one argument:
Facebook is a website, so there's no way it's ever going to become a mobile
company.

Besides the shallowness of this argument, I think it makes two assumptions
that are not justified:

\- Since no company has succeeded in transitioning from one era to the other,
no company in the future will ever succeed. The premise is debatable (Is
Google really a failure?), but I think that the conclusion is flat out wrong.

\- The next generation of internet companies will be mobile, and the only way
forward for facebook is to go mobile. Well, mobile is obviously one way
forward, but is it the only one? Who knows what facebook is going to come up
with.

Anyway, I'm not sure that the article brings anything interesting..

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va_coder
You have to take everything a hedge fund trader says with a grain of salt.
These guys are making bets both upwards and downwards on the same day.

For all I know they've got a program that detects when this article hits the
web and that triggers a trade, and then an hour later their program triggers
another trade.

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thematt
Absolutely right. In the case of the short-sellers, it's well known these guys
flood the media with fake rumors in the hope it triggers a selloff.

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joshuahedlund
The article may make some good points, but I refuse to give page views to
arrogant link-bait "Contrarian Event X will Happen By Year Y" titles.

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technoslut
The title of the article is somewhat misleading. Facebook will likely
encounter monetization problems as the supremacy of mobile apps over the web
continues but it doesn't mean they will just "disappear".

If Facebook disappears like Yahoo is doing, someone is going to have to come
up with a disruptive solution (like Google did in search). Right now that
option doesn't exist.

There certainly will be web companies that won't make the transition but
Facebook seems to be in the best position to do so. The vast amount of
information that they have on their users makes it so.

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Turing_Machine
It's probably a safe bet that any web-based service will disappear by 2020, or
at least change so much that it's completely unrecognizable.

~~~
27182818284
I've always found HTTP and HTML limiting. I know that might be blasphemy to
say, but it seems like we've only put duct tape on duct tape, even with
advancements like HTML5.

~~~
quotemstr
Elaborate?

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27182818284
Well, I highly suspect Google won't be the same as it is now by 2020 either.
That isn't saying much. Part of reaching a so-called technological singularity
involves very fast changes.

