
How’s the Economy Doing? Watch the Dentists - prostoalex
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/10/upshot/dentists-coronavirus-economic-indicator.html
======
jonnycat
Given the innovation we've seen from some industries in these times, I'm
surprised I haven't seen any in dentistry.

I'm probably just naïve about the challenges – or maybe it's happening and I'm
just not aware. But I'm surprised my family (3 dental offices between us)
hasn't gotten any emails from our dentists selling cleaning kits with
elaborate instructions or offering Zoom consultations where they ask the same
old questions they'd be asking at a cleaning, planning treatment, etc.

Yes, I realize these things are no replacement for regular cleanings or
appointments, but certainly they'd be better than... nothing?

~~~
ghaff
I'm pretty sure many dentists are open to remote consultations. I know my
doctor is. I assume my dentist would be as well.

I'm not sure what remote cleaning would look like other than "Be particularly
observant to your brushing and flossing." I imagine untrained people hacking
around with dental tools would cause more harm than good.

------
claudeganon
What’s strange to me about all these stories is their veiled, counterfactual
suggestion that any of this is really safe given the trajectory the US is on.

If the US had reacted early and competently, like South Korea, New Zealand,
Taiwan, or many other countries, people could be going to dentists without too
much concern. But we didn’t, are on a bad and dangerous path, and now have to
somehow pretend that we’re not, based solely on popular sentiment.

The reality of COVID-19, how it spreads, and what’s proven to quash it have
absolutely nothing to do with how people feel about the pandemic.

~~~
ReticentVole
COVID-19 is endemic. Even if first-world countries like the ones you mention
can control it, it just takes one infected traveller from a 2nd/3rd world
country to restart the whole thing.

The reality is that COVID is a relatively minor ailment, which is not deadly
for the vast majority of people - the CDC estimates its IFR at 0.26%:

[https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-
cdc-b...](https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-brings-
down-the-covid-19-death-rate-to-just-0-26-as-against-whos-3-4/)

There are already no excess deaths in the USA:
[https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm)

I think its quite likely that without the media storm, we would have put it
down as a really bad flu, once in a quarter century, and got on with life.
Last time Sweden's death rate was this high was during their 1993 Flu pandemic
(an event which is entirely forgotten).

If we value life, we are about to bring a huge amount of misery to the world
from our lockdown policies, already pushing 71 million into extreme poverty:
[https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/updated-estimates-
impac...](https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/updated-estimates-impact-
covid-19-global-poverty)

And allowing existing, mundane diseases to spread rapidly:
[https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/health/coronavirus-
vaccin...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/health/coronavirus-vaccines-
measles.html)

The underlying factor is the aging of populations in the West. Look at the
forecast age profile for Italy in 2050:
[https://www.populationpyramid.net/italy/2050/](https://www.populationpyramid.net/italy/2050/)
about 13% of the population will be aged over 80! Mundane flu waves will kill
scores of people, simply due to the demographics.

It is unfair to throw the rest of the planet's population under the bus to
protect Baby Boomers in the West.

Its also remarkable that we can muster such effort to 'save' a fraction of the
population, already sick and elderly, yet do very little to combat climate
change which will impact humanity and the planet forever - not to mention the
lives saved now from reducing air pollution.

~~~
DanBC
> the CDC estimates its IFR at 0.26%:

You've misunderstood this. Why didn't you link to the original CDC document?
Please could you show where CDC estimates IFR at 0.26%?

[https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-
scena...](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-
scenarios.html)

> New data on COVID-19 is available daily; information about its biological
> and epidemiological characteristics remain limited, and uncertainty remains
> around nearly all parameter values.

> The parameters in the scenarios:
    
    
        Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning.
        Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.
        Do not reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions.

~~~
mrfusion
The CDC only lists the estimate for CFR (.4%) on that page.

If you consider their projection that 35% of all infected cases remain
asymptomatic (same page), the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) drops to
just 0.26 %.

~~~
DanBC
But they give 5 projections, and they say that none of these are accurate
estimations, they're only to be used for modelling, and that they will change
as new information is found.

------
mnm1
Dentistry is the last industry I'd watch as a harbinger of the economy. Going
to the dentist is truly playing russian roulette with corona. The
aerosolization of particles is inevitable as is inhaling them. If there is
corona to be aerosolized and transmitted, it will be. I can't imagine anyone
getting elective dentistry right now. Then again, many Americans seem to have
a death wish right now and would risk their lives for a cleaning.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Most Americans will get COVID, and the risk of death is exceedingly low
(0.3%). “Death wish” is exaggerating the situation. If you’re young and
healthy (or even middle aged and healthy), it’s reasonable to take what others
interpret as risky actions.

~~~
gberger
Are you predicting 500-900k deaths in the USA due to COVID-19?

~~~
toomuchtodo
Not a domain expert, so I make no predictions myself but do consume data from
subject matter experts on the topic.

Healthy middle aged person who wears a mask in public but goes about his life
with his family as if nothing happened. Haven’t gotten COVID, but if I do,
I’ll take sick days and move on. What else would you expect people to do, hide
inside forever? Curve was flattened, there’s no appetite to do so further if
necessary, life goes on (or it doesn’t).

~~~
criddell
You don't think we would be better off if we had been as aggressive as
countries like South Korea?

~~~
toomuchtodo
I think we would, but we won’t, so that’s what folks will optimize for (“open
for business”).

Can’t fault people for responding to incentives and policy accordingly.

~~~
criddell
It's hard for me to reconcile that you educate yourself by reading what
experts are saying and you still are going about your life as if nothing had
happened.

Are the policies and incentives so powerful that it's overriding your
knowledge that you and your neighbors would be better off if you continued to
self-quarantine as much as possible?

~~~
matz1
I too go about my life as nothing had happened. Simple reason: many people who
get it are asymptomatic, many who get it only have mild symptoms, yes few
unlucky people will be dead but the number are exceddingly low. Not worth it
to be worrying about it.

~~~
jhayward
This is such a repugnant and ignorant statement that it makes me despair for
our society.

~~~
matz1
repugnant is very subjective but ignorant ? Can u point out which part of my
statement that is ignorant ?

~~~
jhayward
One only needs to look at Italy, Spain, NYC to spot the main problem(s) with
the statement. I'm being generous in attributing them to ignorance - there is
a very strong likelihood in today's environment that it's willful mis-
statement.

Not the least problem is that it implicitly assumes that others will take
steps to reduce the worst effects, so that you don't need to bother. The basic
anti-social anti-vax position.

In any case it's so easily dissected that I'm going to invoke Brandolini's Law
[1] and decline to waste the time to refute BS.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandolini%27s_law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandolini%27s_law)

~~~
matz1
>One only needs to look at Italy, Spain, NYC to spot the main problem(s) with
the statement

Many are asymptotic, many have mild symptom, yes there is deaths but low in
number. Is it not the same case as in Italy, Spain, NYC ?

>Not the least problem is that it implicitly assumes that others will take
steps to reduce the worst effects, so that you don't need to bother

I don't assumes others will take steps to reduce the worst effects. Even in in
the worst case situation where everyone eventually will get infected
(including me), it didn't bother me.

~~~
jhayward
> Even in in the worst case situation where everyone eventually will get
> infected (including me), it didn't bother me.

Like I said, the unnecessary deaths of hundreds of thousands to millions
doesn't bother you. That is repugnant, and sociopathic.

~~~
matz1
There are millions of death happened due to various cases every year even
before pandemic. If I let this bother me, I would be depressed all the time.
Why would I want that?

~~~
jhayward
As I said earlier, I'm not inclined to participate in the refutation of BS,
which is what you are trolling out.

This is a once-a-century pandemic of a virus that is not at all the influenza
or any other common virus. If left to itself it would kill, most likely,
millions in the US alone. That's not millions who were going to die anyway, it
is millions of avoidable deaths with 10's of millions of years of life
extinguished.

The sociopathic narcissism of individuals who feel like that's fine as long as
they personally don't feel at risk, which this exchange typifies, is
deplorable.

------
doliveira
What is the deal with this denialism on Hacker News? Suddenly it seems
everyone here incarnated the Elon Musk spirit.

~~~
ghaff
You don't need to be denialist to think that it may be appropriate to get back
to delayed medical procedures.

~~~
doliveira
I assume emergency procedures are still being done.

~~~
ghaff
I'm not sure what that statement has to do with mine. Many medical
procedures/visits that don't need to happen _right now_ should nonetheless not
be postponed indefinitely. Dental cleaning is certainly one of those. Others
are operations to correct chronic pain or to forestall a future emergency.

Now, you're certainly welcome to think that we should continue pushing those
kind of visits/procedures out indefinitely but health officials in most places
disagree.I'm being quite conservative in general but I have gone back to the
dentist since they reopened.

