
Ending coronavirus lockdowns will be a dangerous process of trial and error - sohkamyung
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/ending-coronavirus-lockdowns-will-be-dangerous-process-trial-and-error
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undersuit
I agree. Governor Bullock has Montana re-opening on the 24th. Why are we re-
opening? It's the start of tourism season people! We already had plenty of
out-of-staters flee to their vacation homes in the state and the infection
rates in the cities that service them shows. Now we're bringing more people
in?

[https://covid19.mt.gov/](https://covid19.mt.gov/)

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redis_mlc
The US lockdown as of April 14 is idiotic for several reasons:

1) Lockdown was started to reduce need for ventilators. Since they don't work
66% - 90% (80% in NY) of the time, that's moot. (But Chinese papers have
published that since January, so I guess we're slow learners.)

2) 98% of people who catch corona virus recover fine on their own. Of the
remaining 2%, most are older, just like the flu every year.

3) The US is not S. Korea - we're not setup for testing or tracing, and won't
be for months. We'll run out of food and most small businesses will be ruined
for no good reason.

4) Corona virus has spread world-wide. There is no way to predict if it will
come back next month or not, so let's get rolling on herd immunity.

My practical suggestions are, to use a medical metaphor, just rip the bandaid
off:

1) Spend a week creating dedicated quarantine hospitals, just like Wuhan did
in Dec./Jan.

2) Tell everybody to sew a mask.

3) End the lockdown after communnicating the above, and let the flu runs its
course, just like every other year in human history.

I understand that it's human nature "to want to do something", but we have no
cure for this.

~~~
DoreenMichele
_but we have no cure for this._

We also basically have no treatment, and that's why people are freaked out.

I'm personally encouraged by the speed at which people have risen to the
occasion, adapted and begin developing new hypotheses. I think if we can
figure out a more effective treatment modality, people will calm down
dramatically.

~~~
IfIEverCatchYou
> We also basically have no treatment

Not so:

[https://www.cancernetwork.com/news/clinical-trial-
explores-a...](https://www.cancernetwork.com/news/clinical-trial-explores-
azithromycin-hydroxychloroquine-combo-covid-19-treatment)

Edit: Besides, what if the cure already exists, and Big Pharma wants to make
more money selling long-term treatment drugs and equipment?

~~~
DoreenMichele
Clinical trials are not the same thing as reasonably effective, proven
treatment.

We are seeing an 80% death rate for people on ventilators. This means when the
worst happens, most people die, even with heroic measures and the most
advanced technology available.

When they have a more reliable means to treat people in serious distress, I
think people will be more amenable to easing the lockdown. Until then, it's a
big fat _fuck you_ to people in high risk categories.

I am hearing that doctors are comparing it to high altitude sickness and
trying to come up with a more accurate mental model that may yield more
effective treatment than ventilators. I hope that happens rapidly. A big
breakthrough in that area, where we know what the hell to do for you when
things get really bad, would make a very big difference in this situation.

Edit in reply to your edit:

I don't think that's at all what is going on.

I think I have some idea of what would help. It's mostly not more serious
drugs.

As a former homemaker, no one much cares what I think. But just as one human
to another in a stupid online discussion, I'm all for blaming big pharma for a
lot of things, but not this time.

