

Show HN: I mixed selling t-shirts with a little bit of game theory - seekely
http://getnifty.com
I had this idea rolling around in my head for the last couple of years, and I finally decided to build the damned thing just to get idea relief.<p>The backend is a typical LAMP stack with the Symfony2 framework backing the P.  Varnish sits in front of all the Chef managed Linode boxes.  The site will work without Javascript (up until the checkout), and the style degrades really nicely depending on your viewport (try it out by resizing your browser).<p>I'm open to all comments and critiques, so let me hear them.  And if you are into graphic t-shirts, here is a code for a Hacker News 20% discount: 4803-7940-0816-5604!
======
seekely
I had this idea rolling around in my head for the last couple of years, and I
finally decided to build the damned thing just to get idea relief.

The backend is a typical LAMP stack with the Symfony2 framework backing the P.
Varnish sits in front of all the Chef managed Linode boxes. The site will work
without Javascript (up until the checkout), and the style degrades really
nicely depending on your viewport (try it out by resizing your browser).

I'm open to all comments and critiques, so let me hear them. And if you are
into graphic t-shirts, here is a code for a Hacker News 20% discount:
4803-7940-0816-5604!

~~~
wdewind
Nice site, just wanted to say I really like the phrase "style degrades"
instead of "responsive design." It's much more accurate and I will be using it
from now on, thanks.

~~~
neilk
The full idiom is "graceful degradation". It's been common on the web since
the 90s, but I think it actually came from networking jargon.

It's not the same as responsive design. Graceful degradation implies a sort of
hierarchy, where you subtract features on platforms that don't support them.
So if you're using an supercool advanced browser feature, like colored text,
you don't break the site for older browsers.

The responsive design idea is really more about _different_ use cases than
adapting to a more primitive environment.

~~~
wdewind
I know what graceful degradation is.

I'm actually disagreeing with what you are saying: responsive design is such a
poor solution to the problem of providing a mobile or tablet site, that it is
actually _more_ accurate to refer to it as graceful degradation, rather than
as addressing a new use case.

------
citricsquid
I like the idea, but I have the feeling your t-shirts are overpriced.

I had what you could call a t-shirt problem, I purchased over 150 in the space
of a year, anyway one common thing I noticed is that a _brand_ (eg:
Threadless, Bustedtees) that sold based on merit and not gimmick could sell at
a much higher price than somewhere that was relatively unknown or sold based
on some sort of gimmick. For example teefury.com is a site that does a sort of
similar thing to you with time based sales, they sell at around $10 each but
would never do well at $25 each.

My (anecdotal -- myself and friends) understanding of why people aren't
comfortable spending $25 on a time-sale t-shirt is that you're selling selling
based on 2 things, the t-shirt itself and the idea that it's time-exclusive,
this adds pressure. If I purchase a t-shirt from somewhere like Threadless I
know it's likely if I wait 2 weeks it's going to be there still, so I don't
feel like "I must buy now!" and then I don't feel like I'm paying for
something I might not want in a week, whereas if I see a t-shirt on your site
with 1 day to go: "That t-shirt is cool! Hmm, but I have to buy it right
now... and $25 is a premium t-shirt price... I might not like it in a few
days... I'll skip". This behaviour is especially so with the added idea that
I'm possibly buying a t-shirt nobody else likes, it makes me think maybe it's
just a crappy t-shirt.

Your site is a site that customers would constantly be coming back to, so
while you might not make such a good margin on a $12.50 shirt vs. a $25 shirt,
it would be made up for in the average customer purchasing 20 shirts a year
vs. 5 if they had to be considerate about their purchases.

I'm not sure if I explained that well, if not I can try and re-word it.

~~~
seekely
As a very frequent t-shirt purchaser myself, the reason sites like TeeFury
(which I love) do not sell at $25 is because their t-shirt quality, design,
and printing style is not anywhere near as nice as Threadless or
DesignByHumans. I am hoping Nifty will earn a reputation more like the latter
sites than the former.

With that in mind, I will definitely test price points and appreciate the
perspective from a fellow t-shirt buyer.

~~~
citricsquid
That's true (re: quality), I've spent $50 on a few t-shirts from my favourite
quality companies (<http://jinx.com> t-shirts wear like a dream)

An idea that might fit with your site would be to offer a shirt of the month
deal (bustedtees example: <http://www.bustedtees.com/shirtofthemonth>).

$200 upfront for 12 months of shirts (works out at about $13/m), every third
week of the month you generate a random shirt for me from that weeks shirts
and if that shirt matches the least popular I also get a bonus shirt (fits
with the theme of the main weekly sale) or maybe if I am a subscriber I get
double the chance of a bonus shirt (maybe least popular and most popular or
least popular and second least popular) or something.

You could even do it like a loss leader type deal, have a yearly subscription
for $100 (which would be ridiculously low and pull lots of people in) and then
use the marketing from that (people telling their friends about the cool shirt
that just arrived, tweeting about it etc. every month).

Although I guess as you're doing t-shirts on demand there's probably not much
financial outlay so cash up front might not be worth potentially losing
profits.

If your shirt quality is good (I'm going to order a shirt later to find out)
then I'd sign up to that sort of deal ($200, or $100) without a second thought
because there's nothing better than getting a surprise t-shirt.

~~~
seekely
The t-shirts are of quality, I promise :)

The subscription suggestion is great and might be a better fit for Nifty. I'll
have to give some thought.

Another direction I am thinking of going is more clearly separating the
purchase from the pick. So you pick your shirt to buy and then make a separate
pick for the least popular. I worry the additional UI may complicate things,
but it is probably worth testing.

~~~
kerneis
No, regardless of UI, I think the dilemma of having to buy yourself the least
popular one to get an extra t-shirt is important. And what would happen to
your buisness model if everybody liked (and ordered) t-shirt A but nominated
t-shirt B? You would have to ship two t-shirts to everybobdy, whereas your
current plan guarantees that no more than 20% of customers get a free t-shirt
--- which also makes it more challenging to play the game.

------
drharris
I really like this. I found myself with a gradually widening smile as I
realized the ramifications of the whole concept. The brilliance from the
commerce standpoint is that the freebie is by definition minimized by the
number of shirts sold, and a typical loser product will see more activity than
usual. From a customer standpoint, you have effectively 20% chance of getting
a freebie, making the perceived purchase price 80% of $25, or $20, a very
reasonable price for a graphic t-shirt. However, since it's the least
purchased number getting freebies, I'd expect your actual revenue to be more
like $21 per shirt, thus creating profit out of thin air. Customer pays a
decent marginal price (for a hopefully quality product), you get a built-in
profit from the mechanics, and the game mechanics nearly guarantee a larger
volume of purchases than normal. Overall, a great strategy!

------
steve8918
I saw this site last week or maybe the week before, and to be honest, I was
put-off by the obnoxiousness of trying to get people to buy the "least
popular" t-shirt. To me, it came across as you trying to unload your shittiest
product through some clever trick. It had a Zynga-esque feel to it, and I
didn't like it at all. The fact you give a clue like "this was the worst
selling t-shirt in the last hour" makes me feel like you're tricking me, and
I'd rather do business with someone else than risk getting played or ripped
off. Sorry, but that's the feeling I get when I see this site.

If you want some additional feedback:

Instead of the gimmicky "you lose I win", I think you need to make it some
sort of win-win type gimmick. Like the price goes down the more people buy it,
and whoever buys it earlier will get some money back on their next purchase.

You need to make the "game" shorter, I don't have patience to wait a week
until I know if I "won".

$25 is something I would pay if the t-shirts were good quality, like American
Apparel, but you didn't list the manufacturer.

You need a lot more designs. I was looking for the button for additional
designs, but I finally figured out you only have those 5. If I hate all 5 of
them, then I won't likely remember your site, and won't come back.

~~~
seekely
Below in the comments, I mention I am very curious to find out if people will
take buying the least popular t-shirt as a positive (I'm unique) or negative
(Why would I want a trash shirt). You clearly fall in the latter category,
which is very reasonable. I am very open to tweaking the game mechanics so it
is perceived as a win win by everybody while still a sustainable site.

The shirt and printing style are of high quality. I need to do a better job on
the site emphasizing that.

Sorry you did not like this week's designs. Maybe next week (or not based on
your comment =p)

~~~
steve8918
The fact that you only reveal the last hourly sales, which really has zero
relevance to total sales and whether or not you "win", makes it feel like a
game of 3-card monte, as I mentioned in another comment.

Maybe you need to be more transparent and show the total sales or the ranking.
This might help show you're not trying to scam anyone. Then, it turns into
something more where people can decide "do I want to buy this t-shirt in a
2-for-1 sale" since they get the next shirt free.

~~~
mst
Except that the changes you propose would take all of the fun out of the game
for those of us who -do- like the idea.

Though in fact, if there was UK shipping I have a feeling I might've bought
the Graphic Love T-shirt just because it's clever.

However, it seems to me very much like you really don't find the concept
entertaining and thereby end up feeling like it's trying to rip you off rather
than entertain you; I don't think the site's owner can solve that without
destroying the things that make it potentially interesting to other people.

------
polshaw
I love the idea. It's really great to see something innovative here. I was
almost going to say a little bit of genius, but i have a few more reservations
now i have thought the idea over-- mainly that i don't think i'd see value in
the 'game' (that is, saving potential) unless i really liked all the tees on
offer. So that sets the proposition to me[1] as very close to any other online
t-shirt retailer (would anyone suspect their favourite was going to be least
liked?).

BUT in the very worst case scenario, you have a fantastic marketing gimmick to
drive people to the site, and keep many of them coming back perhaps. I really
wish there was a 'control' to compare this to, to see what effect this has on
sales- it seems it will be hard to know how much the game is driving sales vs
people just liking the tees. My current feeling is the idea might function
better slightly tweaked.. eg. offer the shirts at $18 normally, or $20 with
the freebie game.. only count the $20 sales toward the totals.. might offer
some balance-- for example, the 'better' (popular) one won't currently have a
lot of appeal WRT. the game, because most will rightly assume it wouldn't be
least popular. Add the tweak and there is an element of double-guessing that
might make more people believe they have a chance of 'winning'? Hope that made
sense.. it's not a fully worked out idea, but worth thinking about perhaps.

Also, consider following OKcupid and having an onsite blog.

[1] perhaps not everyone is like me (or us here), though

------
whiletruefork
Adding some type of effect to show that the shirts are actively being bought
(I imagine every few seconds half a shirt 'flash') would give the sale more of
an active-feeling. Right now I don't feel strongly urged to make a decision
right now, but rather that I could come back later.

Second comment: Rather than giving away the least popular shirt, you could
apply some type of variable pricing depending on when a user purchased a shirt
given its popularity?

~~~
nrlucas
Increases and Decreases like some T-Shirt Market.

------
jedberg
After you do this for a while, please please release your data. I'd love to
see what kind of influence the star has on things, and the variation between
least popular and most popular.

~~~
seekely
If I have data worth releasing (i.e. sales volume), I most certainly will. I'm
very curious myself!

------
ankeshk
I like the game mechanics.

A story that comes to my mind is: there was a grocery store in London in the
1950s who didn't have the best of locations. They ran a contest: They would
randomly select a half an hour time period (eg: 2.20 to 2.50pm). People who
had shopped during that time on the previous day could come back with their
time stamped receipts and get cash back.

The store tripled their number of customers per day.

This however worked because people didn't go out of their way to buy new
things. They just went out of their way to buy the things they needed at a
different store to get a chance to get cash back.

So my suggestion is this: source out the "winning" designs on threadless etc
in the past 3 months. And list those t-shirts on your website only. Don't ask
your audience to submit their designs.

And announce this fact. Re-assure people that they are buying the same "hot"
stuff they would buy on other t-shirt sites. But they could just earn a free
t-shirt too.

Take away the neg that comes with the "least popular tshirt" tag.

------
stefanobernardi
Cool idea, agree with the comment about regrettable purchases so I think you
need to figure something out for that.

I think there's a lot of space to apply game theory / gamification in
e-commerce. Still need to get a clear understanding on the regulatory
framework for this.

Also, which fulfillment service are you using?

Good luck!

~~~
seekely
I am fulfilling the orders myself (with help) via USPS and FedEx until it gets
out of hand.

~~~
brador
How are you handling the printing on these? Do you plan to buy in bulk and
ship out once it ends or screen print the tees yourself?

~~~
seekely
The shirts are being water/discharged printed by <http://forwardprinting.com>.
A very high quality and award winning printer.

------
olalonde
Shouldn't that be "I mixed selling t-shirts with a little bit of
_gamification_ "? I don't really get the game theory angle (as in
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory>). Very clever idea in any case!

~~~
k2enemy
It actually is an interesting game (in the game theory sense). I make no
claims about whether or not it is a good business idea, or how people will
actually play, but a quick and incomplete theoretical analysis follows.

First, some simplifications: * an infinite number of players * everyone agrees
on the ordering (quality, utility, etc) of shirts * only look for symmetric
equilibria (where everyone plays the same strategy)

Some notation:

Let there be N shirts (N=5 for this application). Order the shirts by their
utility (that everyone agrees on). x1 < x2 < ... < xN. Let the utility from
the bonus shirt be z, where z > xN.

The most simple strategy is for everyone to randomize and put equal
probability on each shirt. If everyone plays according to that strategy, then
the expected payoff for any given player is avg(x1, ... , xN) + z/N. But this
can't be a Nash equilibrium because an individual player could deviate and
choose xN with probability 1 and get payoff xN + z/N.

The (maybe not the only) Nash equilibrium is probabilities p1, p2, ..., pN
such that sum(p1, p2, ..., pN)=1 and x1+p1z = x2+p2z = ... = xN+pNz. These
probabilities make a player indifferent between choosing each shirt with
certainty.

I haven't spent the time to see if there is a nice formula for the
probabilities, but for the case of N=2, you get

p1=(x2-x1+z)/2z and p2=1-(x2-x1+z)/2z

This doesn't take into account that people have different tastes, or the
sequential information that the star creates. The game gets very complicated
with these added in.

------
chrispatton
I'm friends with seekely, and we have gone back and forth about the idea of
framing the "winner" as the "least popular", which as a negative connotation,
vs. using terminology like "unique", which has a more positive connotation. It
could be that by using the more negative language, people would believe that
the free t-shirt is a consolation prize for having bad taste, as opposed to
being excited about being special somehow. However, it's a completely
subjective assessment in either direction. What did you all get as a first
impression (or did it even register with you in that way)?

~~~
polshaw
My take would be that i DGAF if other people on the internet/US share my taste
in t-shirts. My sole concern in that area would be geared towards wanting a
free one. Personally, I wouldn't buy one I wouldn't be happy to pay the full
price for, and of course my brain sees it as very unlikely that this would be
the least popular. Also, it seems a poor gamble to go for one I like less on
the hope that I might get another free. So if i picked the least popular, my
reaction would just be 'bonus, free tee!' (i wouldn't have any feeling of
'special unique little flower', either).

As for the language specifically, firstly, 'least popular' is functional. It
tells me exactly what you are talking about. If i read 'most unique' i would
have no idea how you were measuring that, and would probably feel uneasy about
it-- like you were using the phrase as cover to pick whatever you wanted to.
(Which is funny, since 'least popular' is already the best financial option
for yous!). Secondly, it doesn't seem too negative to me (compare 'least
awesome' vs 'worst'). That is for the landing page (and if any commiseration
email), anyway. As far as congratulatory email, I would probably agree to
frame it as 'most unique'.

Hope that helps!.. I know how difficult it can be to get basic perspective
when you are too involved with something.

------
fudged71
On first glance, I feel like people would simply choose the shirt that they
think looks the least fashionable, which just leads to regrettable purchases.

~~~
seekely
I do not want people making regrettable purchases, so I will play around with
the concept if that's the impression I get from buyers.

I am very curious to find out if people will take buying the least popular
t-shirt as a positive 'i'm unique' or negative 'i suck'.

~~~
fudged71
It would be very interesting to see how people use the site.

------
bootload
One slightly annoying thing I noticed. If I select a t-shirt ie:
<http://getnifty.com/market/1001/product/1002> the sizes appear

    
    
      0S 0M 0L 0XL
    

which for a second till I ran the mouse over them realised it was a form
selection. Can you pre-populate or add spacing?

~~~
seekely
I have had the damnedest time getting the size right on those buttons. Can you
tell me your device/browser/screen size?

~~~
bootload
Ubuntu, x86, unity / Moz Firefox 14.0.1 / Running at 1280x1024 (low rez).

------
jere
Interesting, but I'm not sure I buy the "I'm unique" logic. It reminds me of
"big-choosers" from the Toilet Paper Problem: [http://gi.cebitec.uni-
bielefeld.de/teaching/2007summer/jclub...](http://gi.cebitec.uni-
bielefeld.de/teaching/2007summer/jclub/papers/toiletPaper.pdf)

If everyone was a big-chooser, you get into a dangerous situation because
rolls are being emptied at roughly the same rate.

Similarly, I am led to wonder what percentage of your users will be making
their choice based solely on the coupon (i.e. least popular shirt at the
moment). If it's a high percentage, then each shirt should approach 20% of
sales. Hardly unique at all.

By the way, "Virgin" is an awesome design. Reminds me of Dali. I can't imagine
opting for any of the other shirts in order to try to win a coupon.

------
vhf
I so wanted to buy the bicycle one for my girlfriend.

When checking out my cart, it didn't allow me to choose another country than
US, and I'm in Europe. Too bad for me (and for her) (and also for you, who
lost a sale ;) )

Great post, great idea, though ! Keep it up !

~~~
seekely
Bummer :(

I would really really like to ship to Europe (and everywhere), but as a 1 man
show right now, I can't logistically make that happen for some time.

~~~
pkhamre
I would easily pay $5-$10 extra for shipping.

------
fingerprinter
There are quite a few sources in this thread for quality t-shirts, but I don't
wear cotton anymore.

Curious if there are any t-shirt sites that sell on Nike dri-fit, Under Armour
style shirts. You know the kind, moisture wicking etc. They tend to be
polyester or even bamboo.

My favorite at the moment is this one I got from Lids. It is AWESOME.
<http://www.lids.com/NCAA/Hawaii-Warriors/20304981>

I just wish I could find more! Anyone know of any sites like that? And I of
course I know I'd pay a premium for that, so no worries there.

~~~
brador
Why don't you wear cotton anymore? Allergies?

~~~
fingerprinter
Honestly, because I don't like 1. that they wrinkle 2. that they shrink and 3.
they tend to be more uncomfortable than the others.

~~~
sodiumphosphate
And 4: they also fade.

I've been wearing the same seven solid black polyester tees for the past year
or so and I'm sold on them.

------
Professoroak
Interesting idea! Graphic tees are a great market to do an idea like this, as
well.

People who have the disposition to wear a lot of graphic tees seem like the
same people who would spend $25 on some generic tees just for the game aspect.
Personally, id rather bargain hunt on Gilt or something for some high quality,
well designed t-shirts, but im not your target audience.

------
ScottBurson
Interesting, but my reaction is, I'll just pick my favorite (if any) and not
worry about getting the special. It's not worth buying one I don't really like
just because it _might_ turn out to be free.

On another note -- would really like to be able to pull up some much larger
images of the shirts.

~~~
no_more_death
Perhaps the gimmick is not intended for you. It's for people who always buy as
cheaply as possible.

------
Nate75Sanders
This reminds me of the game mechanic in Puerto Rico (
<http://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/3076/puerto-rico> ) where money
accumulates on roles not chosen to incentivize people to pick that role.

------
jurre
My hands are itching to write a scraper that checks the site every 30 minutes
or so and tells me just before the countdown ends which shirt was the least
popular.. What's stopping me from doing so other than not being a jerk?

~~~
simonbrown
The star only tells you the least popular in the last hour. The least popular
overall wouldn't necessarily be the one that received the most stars, as all
the shirts are likely to be more popular at some times than others.

------
jdevonport
What a fantastic idea, I am a long time customer of Threadless, TeeFury etc.
You see a lot of clones springing up but you have done something really
interesting and unique, will defiantly give it a go!

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dlikhten
You sick bastard!!!! Now I had to buy 5 shirts just to make sure I get my free
one. How dare you! KHAAAAAAN!!!!

edit: set self destruct code: kirk0001 <\-- lol at complexity.

------
fileoffset
The game theory stuff is neat but to me inconsequential.

I just went to buy a really cool shirt but can't - USA shipping only :(

Pity! I doubt I'll ever come back to this site.

------
gojomo
Does this count as a Keynesian Ugly Contest?

------
zio99
Uber cool concept. Time limits + freebies = good bag of tricks and sorcery. +1
for your logo.

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gcr
It might be just me, but I can't see what the shirts look like in Chrome.

------
pkhamre
I would really love international shipping for the tshirts.

