
What a Difference 2 Percentage Points Make - pron
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/
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wodenokoto
While it is an interesting point, it is a weak excuse for their poor election
forecast, which right up till the end[1] had Clinton as a sure winner.

Now, the difference was in the margin ...

[1] [http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-
forecast/](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/)

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Scarblac
71.4% is not "a sure winner".

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wodenokoto
Okay, maybe "sure winner" was putting it on the edge, but 70% chance of
winning is still far from being decided by what is hidden in the margin error.

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inimino
I don't think you clearly understand what 70% means. If you call 70% and it
doesn't go the other way three times out of ten, you were poorly calibrated.

A lot of people seem to have read 70% as "no worries", which is simply wishful
thinking, and now are blaming Nate Silver for being "wrong".

If your doctor told you you have a 70% chance of surviving the week, you
probably wouldn't call that a "sure thing".

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garyclarke27
Amazing when you think about it, such a dramatic change in outcome from just 1
in a hundred persons voting differently. Same would have been the case with
UK's tragic Brexit vote.

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draw_down
So, we all finally stop listening to this guy now, right?

