
The app boom is over - taylorbuley
http://www.recode.net/2016/6/8/11883518/app-boom-over-snapchat-uber
======
rangera
I think the app boom is in decline, but I really don't see how illustrating
lower growth for the 20 most well known apps demonstrates this. Less people
downloading Facebook, WhatsApp, or Instagram? Account for how many people
already have it! There could be a saturation of those very well-known apps.

There's a lot more to consider once you look at how the entire app market is
changing, rather than just the very top.

~~~
Declanomous
Anecdotal, but I don't use an app for any service that offers substantially
similar service on their website. For instance, Facebook and Amazon have
horribly bloated apps. They run in the background and eat up my battery. Their
apps ask for permissions for unfathomable reasons. I place a link to the
website on my desktop instead, since I can at least trust my browser won't eat
up all my battery after I thought I closed it.

While I'm more tech savvy than most people I know, a lot of my friends have
uninstalled the Facebook app as well, for a variety of similar reasons.
Several have noticed what a battery hog it is, others got pissed off when
Facebook added the messenger app, and others did it for privacy reasons.

Interestingly, I've noticed I use Facebook a lot less since deleting the app.
I should see how my friends usage trends compare. I wonder if the friends who
deleted the app have noticed a decrease in their Facebook usage, or if all my
friends have decreased their usage and it's just a function of us being
older/in different stages of life.

~~~
Bartweiss
I'm relentlessly unwilling to use banking or shopping apps for similar
reasons. Not only are they bloated and wasteful, they're typically pretty
opaque, with a totally unknown attack surface.

My bank is barely competent to use HTTPS with valid certificates - why on
Earth would I chance using their new-and-untested app when I can't see if it's
worse than their website?

~~~
brianwawok
For banks specifically.. I can use an app to deposit checks via picture. I
cannot do this via the website. So of my 20 apps I have installed, something
like 3 are banks, 10 are games, and 7 are utilities...

~~~
0x6c6f6c
It's a sweeping statement to say that banking apps are bloated. Some are very
well made. I'm pretty happy with Chase's banking app to say the least.

------
anysz
Such clickbait.

Sure the gold rush, get-rich-quick-cause-there-are-two-of-you era for mobile
apps is over. But the boom for mobile apps will never be over, much like web
apps will never be over. How many billion dollar websites emerged a decade
after everyone said the web boom was over?

Apps are merely a distribution platform for services. As the world evolves, we
will never run out of needs for services.

As long as you're solving a need and you're capable of communicating it to
your target market, you will make lots of money.

Apps and software in general will forever be more efficient than their
predecessors, and thus, IMHO, the app boom has only begun.

~~~
notatoad
>But the boom for mobile apps will never be over

that is, by definition, not a boom. A boom is a period of unusual,
unsustainable growth. The boom is over and the app market is shifting into a
normal sustainable market where good products and services are valued and low-
effort or less useful apps have a hard time succeeding.

The headline wasn't "apps are dead" \- just because you misunderstood it
doesn't make it clickbait.

~~~
Touche
I'm not sure that the app economy wasn't a temporarily bubble. We've yet to
see many apps reach the sustainable part.

Very few apps are successful charging the customer. A few games are successful
selling in-app purchases, but even those almost never last. Social apps some
times get popular but rarely find a way to monetize, they wind up selling
themselves to larger businesses who use them as a loss-leader.

Compared to desktop and the web, the number of sustainable businesses on
mobile apps is depressingly small.

------
biztos
This article's primary source is a ComScore report purporting to show a
decline in mobile app downloads per user.

Is there any reason -- really, any at all -- to believe that ComScore has
accurate data on this?

I can't think of one. (And I did want to read about their methodology but spam
is the price of the "Whitepaper" download, so I didn't get there yet.)

Does Apple give them this information on their customers' habits? I don't
think so.

Does Google? That wouldn't be as exotic as Apple doing it, but still -- I
don't think so.

Facebook?

So what exactly is this data based on?

I'm not even arguing that the conclusion isn't true. I'm arguing that
ComScore, and Quartz, and Recode, and Peter Kafka too have NO IDEA what
they're talking about here. They are pulling numbers out of thin air, waving
their hands, and declaring their suppositions confirmed.

Oh wait, as a secondary source they have "Ad Intelligence" from "SensorTower."

So, self-reporting by ad-focused app companies that don't crunch their stats
internally? And nothing at all about every other app in the world?

OK, to be fair maybe it's not just "thin air." Maybe it's more like hot air.

Anyway, as a programmer who has several times almost-but-not-quite gotten into
the app world, it strikes me that you'd be crazy to do an indie app as a means
to financial glory, but if you have a Big Idea these days in the consumer
space you probably have to have a good app for it. Maybe several. Which means
the "boom" or lack thereof depends a lot on what you think the "app business"
is.

My source: anecdotes and extrapolation. Which admittedly may not be more
accurate than dodgy pseudo-statistics, but I'm sticking with it.

------
TheAceOfHearts
I'm tired of all these useless (for me, I'm sure they're probably useful for
others) apps. Recently I uninstalled most of the third-party apps from my
phone, and it's been great. I've noticed my battery life has improved, and it
reduces the number of companies that track and nag at me.

I'm down to ten non-Google apps, and three of em are work-related. This means
that, excluding Google (which I've already accepted tracks my every move),
only seven apps are solving some problem of mine. And out of those seven, I
only use two on a daily basis.

The most important app I have on my phone is Firefox. You can install addons
for uBlock Origin and HTTPS Everywhere, which makes mobile web very pleasant.

My biggest problem with native apps is that they often show a total lack of
respect for my time and attention. I don't want useless notifications that try
to increase my engagement (looking at you Twitter and Instagram). I don't want
you running in the background for ANY REASON at all unless I've given you
explicit permission.

There's too much focus on trying to jam more and more features into apps. I
want very fast and highly stable applications without any bullshit, and I'm
willing to pay a high price tag if that's what it takes.

~~~
scarface74
Don't blame the apps, blame the OS. iOS can block apps from running in the
background and can stop them from using notifications.

~~~
gman99
> blame the OS. iOS can block apps [...]

Well, to be fair, you can disable notifications from apps since android 4.0
(which is a long time back)

And Android 6.0 and up should automatically disable background running apps
([https://developer.android.com/training/monitoring-device-
sta...](https://developer.android.com/training/monitoring-device-state/doze-
standby.html#understand_app_standby)) unless there is a good reason for them
to be running

But apps can still work around these restrictions (even on iOS; for eg the
facebook app was caught "accidentally" playing silent audio.) Even if that was
truly a bug, the point remains that it's better to use the website unless you
want something specific (offline access, push notifications, etc...)

------
Kinnard
Is it just me or is it obvious that "the app boom is over" . . . until another
great app worth downloading comes out . . .

~~~
adrusi
Yeah but your app didn't used to have to be any good for people to download
it.

~~~
jasonsync
Yeah, it just had to make fart sounds.

------
vthallam
The download of new apps may decline, but with Google Instant Apps arriving,
more users will use apps without installing.

~~~
ProxCoques
Google Instant Apps will fade away after a couple of years because nobody gets
it and it's a solution looking for a problem again. They specialise in auto-
failing ideas like that.

~~~
alttab
I disagree its a solution looking for a problem.

The problem is most internet/computing usage is done on mobile. Increasingly,
this information is inside of Apps. This makes Google's search results less
and less effective overtime.

That is, unless I can click on a google search result and end up in the middle
of an app I've never downloaded.

I think a better criticism is that Instant Apps is attempting to rebuild
internet, using apps. A destination I can go to, and only download what I need
to run the experience in that view? And I can still click on other things and
load those when I need it? It's called surfing the web, dude.

~~~
bluedino
>> The problem is most internet/computing usage is done on mobile.
Increasingly, this information is inside of Apps. This makes Google's search
results less and less effective overtime

Google's problem, not users.

------
kin
The data in the article doesn't really show anything people didn't already
know. There's no surprise that the download rate of the top 20 apps will
eventually decline. I mean, look at their saturation amongst users, it's still
ridiculous.

What's interesting is going to be the new subscription model incentive that
gives publishers an extra 15% for subscription retention after the first year.
Don't forget, App Store 2.0 is just around the corner and it could change the
game. Not saying that it will, but it could.

~~~
0x6c6f6c
Honestly interested in reading some good content on App Store 2.0 if anyone
has a quality read.

~~~
kin
I think it was top of HN yesterday:
[http://www.theverge.com/2016/6/8/11880730/apple-app-store-
su...](http://www.theverge.com/2016/6/8/11880730/apple-app-store-subscription-
update-phil-schiller-interview)

------
thesimpsons1022
how can you say anything about a market when all you are looking at is the top
15 apps? Seems absurd. Maybe the bottom 50 pct have seen increased adoption?
We don't know.

~~~
Bartweiss
An extremely strong app market would actually produce the same results as a
weak one for the top few products.

If people are eager to download apps, high-profile products like Instagram hit
saturation quickly and a drop-off in downloads even though their user base is
massive. If people are hesitant, they get some downloads and slow-but-steady
growth. If people are unwilling, they don't get users at all (but we know what
hasn't happened).

There's really no value for anyone else in a top-apps evaluation - the rest of
the world isn't plastering Times Square in ads.

------
matt_wulfeck
A big part of preferring a website over an app for me is sandboxing. A website
via safari can't access and email all of my contacts, or record my location
via GPS, or any other nefarious thing I'm constantly on my guard against.

By forcing everything through Safari I have reasonable protections against
these privacy violations, as well as good blocking of ads and trackers.

------
tn13
The best of Web came after the dot com burst. In fact to gain maximum from a
platform it is not enough if the platform got popular what matters is how many
people trained to write software for that platform are available and how
cheaply. Both Android and iOS developers are expensive compared to PHP
developers.

I think the best of Mobile is yet to come.

------
emitstop
So all they determined was everyone already has the top installed (and often
pre-installed) apps already installed? What a surprise.

Also I would love to install more apps but to do so I have to clear space on
my phone, and the apps I already have are slowing my phone down and eating my
battery. For me it's always a matter of resources.

------
Zombieball
I am not in the loop for latest in Android development. Can someone, who is,
comment towards whether they think the recently announced Android Instant Apps
will reverse this trend significantly?

~~~
Bartweiss
It should be a good thing. As is, there are lots of one-off use cases for apps
where people simply choose to do without.

As an example, if I'm buying a product online (and not from Amazon), there's
probably an app for the marketplace that's more mobile-friendly than the
website. But right now, I still choose the website because it's not worth
actually downloading something. With Instant, I can pick the better one
without the hassle and commitment of adding something to my phone.

------
abritinthebay
Yup, basically it's now a _mature market_ rather than a gold rush.

This is actually _a good thing_ but not if you were looking for a quick buck.

~~~
ido
It has not been a gold rush since maybe a year or 2 after the App Store became
available (July 2008, so it's been over for a log while now).

~~~
abritinthebay
I'd disagree. It's not the massive gold rush of those early days but it's
still been in that cycle up until maybe a year or two ago.

------
jpeg_hero
If apps are $1 per download, you need 100,000 downloads a month to have $100k
a month in revenue. That's what you need for an office space and a few people
working full time.

How many apps have 100,000 downloads a month.

Apps need subscriptions to survive, that App Store change can't happen soon
enough.

------
draw_down
I certainly have no interest in accumulating more of them. It's actually nice
to delete one whenever I realize I don't need it. Why do I even have so many
to begin with? I hate these damn things.

------
noer
Shouldn't this article have focused on number of downloads per person per
month or year or whatever? It seems like that would tell a better story about
the app boom being over.

~~~
palakchokshi
I think they did provide a link at the top of the article that said Most US
Smartphone users download zero apps per month [0] [http://qz.com/253618/most-
smartphone-users-download-zero-app...](http://qz.com/253618/most-smartphone-
users-download-zero-apps-per-month/)

------
greglindahl
Many of the ads that ad-supported apps use to monetize are ads for other apps.
That's not sustainable, and the end of that will be the end of the boom in ad-
supported apps.

------
sehugg
I think "interest in apps" (i.e. people experimenting with, talking about, and
sharing apps) plateaued in 2012. You can see this effect on Google Trends.

------
leroy_masochist
I am surprised that Tinder didn't crack the top 20.

~~~
jonlucc
Only so many people are single and looking, and of them, only so many want
what the app offers to single people. Even if the second number is 100% of the
first, it's limited.

~~~
leroy_masochist
I get that, I'm just surprised that it got beaten by something like Watch ABC.
Doesn't Tinder have close to a hundred million users?

~~~
bluedino
>> Doesn't Tinder have close to a hundred million users?

Active users, or total accounts? Tinder seems like something you'd use for a
few months and either hook up or give up and not use it again.

------
epeus
I've been pointing out the bursting of the app bubble for a while now, this is
a trailing indicator. Progressive Web Apps make way more sense.

~~~
king_magic
...and are way, way more limited in terms of leveraging device functionality.

I'm not hating on mobile-optimized web apps, just making the point that they
aren't a one-size fits all solution, and as such, I don't think a blanket
statement like "Progressive Web Apps make way more sense" really works.

~~~
palakchokshi
There are only a few apps that leverage device functionality e.g. gyrometer,
fingerprint, etc. Even location and camera are now available for web apps. So
for a majority of native apps a web app makes more sense.

~~~
millstone
Fingerprint sensor for authentication is a big hole. Mint integrates with
TouchID, and it's great. But my bank's webview-wrapping "app" requires a login
and password every launch, and it's very annoying.

~~~
palakchokshi
Apple might be making fingerprint sensing available for the web soon

[https://stripe.com/apple-pay](https://stripe.com/apple-pay)

------
douglance
Providing value to people will never be over.

~~~
swalsh
There's just a lot less low hanging fruit...

~~~
allsystemsgo
Right, which is totally understandable given that the app market has been
going for about 8 years now. There's obviously a shift towards apps that
provide more longer term and reoccurring value to customers which is great for
consumers and for the businesses that build/ship these apps.

------
allsystemsgo
You could also title this article "The App Economy Has Matured", but that
wouldn't get as many clicks.

------
mtgx
It doesn't help that Apple has been strangling users with 16GB of storage for
the base iPhone for years.

