
Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard - sambeau
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61
======
stickac
Non-mobile version:
[https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594...](https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

~~~
rmcpherson
Yes, the non-mobile version has a great layout and much more density of
information on a single page (unsurprisingly).

Does anyone know what the sources are for the data shown here?

~~~
est31
The sources are listed in the bottom center section of the dashboard.

~~~
rmcpherson
Thanks! From the blog post linked there posted on January 23: "Our primary
data source is DXY, an online platform run by members of the Chinese medical
community, which aggregates local media and government reports to provide
COVID-19 cumulative case totals in near real-time at the province level in
China and country level otherwise."

I'd surmise that it was the primary source since, at the time, the spread of
the virus was still contained within China for the most part.

------
alexandercrohde
Unfortunately garbage-in -> garbage-out.

That chart shows US at 233 confirmed cases.

According to NYT, over 10x that number are self-quarantined in NYC alone [1].

Now it's technically true that those cases aren't medically 100% factually
confirmed, because NYC has only performed 35 tests total so far. But it gives
a very inaccurate picture of reality. Garbage in, garbage out.

1\. [https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/nyregion/coronavirus-
new-...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-
cases.html)

~~~
yreg
This dashboard is not intended to visualize computed estimates from models. It
tracks the official confirmed cases, which is a very different and useful
piece of data.

You are unfair by stating it is garbage and misrepresenting what it shows
(confirmed cases vs. estimated cases).

~~~
davidw
What's garbage is the US response to it.

Italy is running 2500 tests a day.

Oregon has the capacity to run a total of about 40.

~~~
parsecs
Agreed. Seems like people in Oregon choose to mostly ignore the issue

~~~
davidw
It's not just Oregon; that's just a number I saw this morning in the local
paper, but I suspect it's similar everywhere. The US did not use the advance
warning we had to prepare.

~~~
ethbro
Georgia ran 50 tests yesterday. And that's after only 3 positive results so
far. All states not equally dysfunctional.

~~~
davidw
Let's do some numbers:

Georgia, with 50 tests/day and 10,000,000 people is at 0.005 per 1K people.

Oregon, with 40 tests/day and 4,200,000 people, is at 0.0095 per 1K people.

Italy, with about 2500 tests/day and about 60,000,000 people, is doing around
0.04 per thousand people. It's about an order of magnitude more.

The point isn't a pissing match between states, it's that the entire US has
not responded well so far. Hopefully things ramp up, so that we stop seeing
these situations where people get exposed and have no idea what's going on.

[https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-
many-...](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-
americans-have-been-tested-coronavirus/607597/)

I do not know why this is, just that it's not going well so far.

~~~
ethbro
More testing != useful testing.

The fact that Georgia and Oregon are testing at virtually equivalent rates is
what's wrong.

I feel like ~50/day is an appropriate number for GA. I feel like ~50/day is
not an appropriate number for Oregon (sandwiched in-between Washington and
California).

The federal goverent should be doing a stronger job of quarterbacking this to
allocate scarce resources.

If Oregon needs surge capacity of testing labs across the Midwest, then by god
make that happen.

Some amount of testing likely needs to happen in every state in order to
prevent panic, but the most resources should flow towards the places with the
most known infections.

~~~
davidw
This is a decent article explaining how things have gone wrong in various
ways:

[https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/what-went-wrong-
with-t...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/what-went-wrong-with-the-
coronavirus-tests/2020/03/07/915f5dea-5d82-11ea-b29b-9db42f7803a7_story.html)

------
plopz
I really dislike these maps that use circles. The circles overlap, are hard to
reason about spatially and the size seems to be an arbitrary scale without
meaning.

~~~
wiredfool
The thing that drives my OCD nuts is that in Europe, all of the circles are
centered the centroid of the country, except Germany.

~~~
dantillberg
Weird. Is Germany's circle at the centroid of West Germany, maybe?

------
Svip
I wish they also separated European countries by subnational jurisdiction. In
the US they do it by cities, surely they should be able to separate Italian
provinces, French departments and German states. They are reported like that
in the news.

I mention this because it's particularly northern Italy that's hard hit, not
southern Italy. I am still planning on travelling to southern France (by car!)
around Easter, and I kind of want a more precise map to know which areas to
avoid.

(I also think travelling by car is a safer option, both for me and others
around me. The plan is to stay at a house in the country, not a hotel.)

~~~
TacticalCoder
> I also think travelling by car is a safer option, both for me and others
> around me.

I thought about it because I'll need to drive a long drive in two days (across
France). I'm taking throwaway gloves with me...

Inside the car I'll be fine (and people outside the car too) but...

A gas station has to be one of the riskiest place to catch the virus because
you are forced to touch the gas pump. And that's the same for everybody who
just filled his car. Same with electric chargers for EVs. Anyone with the
virus would cough, while driving, and the virus would be on one of his hand.
Then that person would fill the car. Then the virus would stay there for
hours?

It's a combination of two things: a great many people passing there and all
these people being forced to touch something hundreds of people recently
touched too. Hence the throwaway gloves.

Not to mention that if anyone in a car has the virus, it's likely that the one
driving may have it on its hands (even if he's not infected ?).

I'm very mindful not to touch anything outside the house unless when I'm
buying groceries (but at the grocery store when I pick, say, a thuna can,
hopefully there haven't been a hundred people touching that on thuna can in
the last x hours). At the gas station I know I'll have no choice.

~~~
addandsubtract
SARS-CoV-2 has a viral envelope, which reduces the transmission possibility
via objects[0]:

"The lipid bilayer envelope of these viruses is relatively sensitive to
desiccation, heat, and detergents, therefore these viruses are easier to
sterilize than non-enveloped viruses, have limited survival outside host
environments, and typically must transfer directly from host to host."

[0]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_envelope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_envelope)

~~~
swebs
Corona viruses can survive on surfaces for up to 9 days.

[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S019567012...](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195670120300463/)

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eth0up
This ([https://ncov2019.live/map](https://ncov2019.live/map)) started as the
best, most (practically, conveniently) informative and updated "dashboard"
I've found. It was posted to HN several times (where I discovered it), but
underwent some curious changes over the last few days. Initially, it showed
all known events and included links for additional information. Then,
peculiarly, all the cases in Florida disappeared with no trace, and now the
southern US seems to have been scrubbed of accounts.

It was produced mostly by a highschool student in WA.

~~~
jpindar
The data page seems to be more up to date than the map.

[https://ncov2019.live/data](https://ncov2019.live/data)

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claudeganon
This map seems effectively useless in the US, given absence of meaningful
testing. Frontline nurses, _treating COVID-19 patients_ , are having their
tests stonewalled and delayed by the CDC:

[https://act.nationalnursesunited.org/page/-/files/graphics/N...](https://act.nationalnursesunited.org/page/-/files/graphics/NU-
Quarantine-RN-press-conf-statement.pdf)

I’ve seen multiple people referencing it to prove the absence of real threat
in the US, which seems beyond absurd at this point.

~~~
wahern
The problem with wide scale testing is that it makes the CFR incomparable to
seasonal flu or previous outbreaks. CFR is by definition deaths/confirmed
cases. It's _not_ a measure of infection lethality or mortality rate, even
though that's what most of us think it is and what we're most curious about.

For crisis management and planning, you want a CFR that is comparable to
something like the seasonal flu or previous outbreaks. "Confirmed" cases of
respiratory illnesses are roughly equivalent to the number of people who
present to a hospital with severe respiratory symptoms, minus the base rate.
We don't go out and run an assay for any person suspected of having the flu,
for example, _especially_ not asymptomatic people. If you do that for SARS-
CoV-2, the number of "confirmed" cases will sky rocket and the CFR will drop.
But that lower CFR can't be meaningfully compared to anything else, and is
pretty much useless except as a curiosity.

So it's understandable that the CDC isn't keen on widespread testing; it'll
ruin the data, or at least ruin the characteristics of the data most important
for crisis management. What matters _now_ from a public health perspective is
knowing whether SARS-CoV-2 is circulating. If you know it's circulating in an
area, then you should just assume any respiratory illness is a SARS-CoV-2 and
quarantine. Test if and only if it becomes severe and you need to know the
cause for treatment.[1] You can calculate a more accurate and consistent CFR
_later_ by subtracting the base rate of presented respiratory infections from
the outbreak rate.

Identifying a local outbreak does request testing, but the major problem there
was a temporary problem with getting assay kits out. But going forward, it
doesn't help to test people who aren't presenting with severe symptoms. At
least, it doesn't help from an epidemiological perspective.

[1] However, SARS-CoV-2 causes primary viral pneumonia. By contrast, severe
symptoms from seasonal flu are caused by secondary, bacterial pneumonia.
There's not much that can be done for the former; for the latter you can
prescribe antibiotics. So for severe cases it might just make sense to
prescribe antibiotics, which would be benign for the viral infection
(COVID-19) and even possibly a prophylactic for secondary bacterial pneumonia.
In other words, in terms of treating a severely ill patient with a clear case
of pneumonia, positive or negative COVID-19 identification might not provide
any benefit.

~~~
claudeganon
Nothing about what the CDC is doing is “understandable.” They’re stonewalling
and delaying frontline responders testing puts the healthcare system more at
risk of being overwhelmed and we’ve already seen cases of large numbers of
nursing staff having to be quarantined once retroactive exposure was
determined.

There was also not a “temporary delay” with the kits, there is still nowhere
near the necessary testing capacity and they’re throwing out absurd, false
numbers like “1 million test kits” that then have to be walked back. And the
whole absence of testing is because they rejected the WHO’s test kit and
donations of them! We could have began testing immediately.

I’m not sure where you’re getting all this nonsense about the absence of
testing being “good for the data”. Every epidemiologist I’ve seen is saying
the exact opposite, e.g.:

Michael Mina, Asst Professor of Epidemiology & Immunology & physician @
Harvard School of Public Health/Medicine

> 1 in 6 positive samples in China were asymptomatic and choice was made to
> not report those. This information is crucial for epidemiological modeling
> and developing appropriate mitigating strategies. Reporting all positives as
> symptomatic or not should be standard reporting.

[https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/12343556205575454...](https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1234355620557545473)

Why are epidemiologists saying that testing and reporting asymptomatic cases
is necessary for responding appropriately, counter to what you claim?

~~~
wahern
What value does knowing the total number of asymptomatic cases provide
_today_? Such data is doubtlessly invaluable for studying the virus, but it's
unnecessary _today_ for managing the outbreak.

Yes, the data can help us more accurately estimate the rate of infections, but
that'll take months or years to pin down to the precision that such fine-
grained data promises. In the mean time, you can roughly determine the spread
of _impactful_ cases by the change in number of presentations of respiratory
infections, just as we've done for _decades_.

You characterize what they're doing as stonewalling, but I'm charactering it
as prioritizing. The biggest priority is collecting data on severe cases, and
generally following established protocol to minimize unforced errors. The
number of asymptomatic cases doesn't help you figure out how many ventilators
you might need, at least not in a timely manner. The middle of an epidemic is
not the time to revolutionize the practice and science of medicine. If you
don't think things through carefully--i.e. the impact of false negatives and
false positives of assay kits--you can easily fsck things up.

Researchers want data, but the primary concern right now is juggling medical
resources and finding treatments. More data is not always helpful, especially
data not directly relevant to the present task.

You're also assuming that hospitals and doctors are itching to run assay kits
on every suspected case. Why, because some nurse's complaints went viral on
social media? To out-do Singapore? Because "more data"? Doctors _not_
interested in running millions of assay kits aren't going to be the ones
complaining, not unless you forced them to run the tests. An assay result
won't change the way you treat a patient with characteristic signs of a severe
respiratory infection in the middle of a global SARS outbreak.

~~~
claudeganon
This is just a series of counterfactuals to everything that’s been reported
and said is necessary by frontline healthcare staff, epidemiologists, and even
the WHO.

You can keep making these evidence-free, self-justifying claims, but that’s
the sum total of what they are.

You can’t even respond to an epidemiologist saying they’re necessary to put in
place appropriate mitigating strategies without espousing straw men like
“outdoing Singapore” or “one nurse going viral.”

I guess all these other doctors and nurses, describing chaos in California
because of the lack of testing, are just trying to “go viral” too?

[https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-06/chaos-at-
ho...](https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-06/chaos-at-hospitals-
due-to-shortage-of-coronavirus-tests)

------
concerned_user
This reddit live thread post includes lots of links to various dashboards and
sources:

[https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/fcolqr/livethrea...](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/fcolqr/livethread_global_covid19_outbreak/)

I personally also look at worldometer dashboard (as it usually gives source
link for every count increase) from there and I find Hopkins dashboard to be
lagging behind, on some countries for several days.

------
nickcw
If you prefer your WHO data in tabular form, some wikipedia volunteers have
made this page

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019%E2%80%9320_coron...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak_data/WHO_situation_reports)

It also shows the doubling rate, which seems to be about 4 days outside China.

~~~
raisedbyninjas
Assuming a consistent growth rate, that's 84 days until U.S. population is
infected.

------
DennisP
Deaths / Deaths + Recoveries gives a 5.7% death rate.

Obviously there are mild cases that are never diagnosed, but it seems if you
get sick enough for a confirmed diagnosis, your risk is higher than generally
reported.

~~~
Alupis
The problem here is, from what doctors seem to be saying, there's a massive
amount of the population that has or has had COVID-19 and will never know -
since the symptoms in an otherwise healthy adult are similar to the common
Flu.

So that death rate is likely far, far lower than what it seems. The flu kills
between 15-60k people in the US every year, and it's around 1% fatality rate
(and nobody seems overly concerned about that).

~~~
pieix
Per CDC numbers [0], in the US the death rate of the flu for the 2018-19
season was roughly 0.1%, an order of magnitude lower than the number quoted
above.

[0] [https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-
seasons.html](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html)

~~~
Alupis
That's interesting! Thanks for the link. It only proves my point further. From
your link, 34,200 people died from the Flu in the US last year - and not a
single person is panicked about those numbers.

~~~
adventured
> and not a single person is panicked about those numbers.

That's for a very obvious reason. If 40 million people in the US get Covid, as
with the flu, it will probably kill between 500k and 1m people.

That's unlikely to happen based on what we know so far. However if two million
people get it, that will kill as many as the flu and produce ~200,000 ICU
cases. That's far beyond what the US healthcare system can handle on top of
routine circumstances.

Along with a drastically higher mortality rate, Covid also produces a far
higher rate of ICU outcomes than flu does. It swamps healthcare systems, as we
saw so dramatically in China.

~~~
Alupis
> If 40 million people in the US get Covid, as with the flu, it will probably
> kill between 500k and 1m people.

This is a greatly, greatly exaggerated number based on incomplete reporting.

We cannot yet estimate the number of unconfirmed COVID-19 cases in the US. In
healthy adults, the COVID-19 symptoms are no worse than the flu. The CDC uses
projections to estimate the fatality rate of the flu every year, since actual
hard stats are impossible to generate. Time will tell, but this so far seems
nothing more than a media frenzy.

Does anyone remember the Swine Flu? How about the West Nile Virus? What was
the outcome of those media frenzies? How'd it turn out for all the people
hoarding toilet paper and water bottles back then?

> It swamps healthcare systems, as we saw so dramatically in China

I don't think it's even remotely relatable to the US healthcare system, and
the general health of the US population.

------
provenance1219
I prefer this one:
[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

------
kchhina
A Google sheet that's being kept up to date as well -

[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBbls...](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=drivesdk&sle=true&pru=AAABcNSGaw8*HF6G74ZiPH3FihkzOxewgA#)

(Edit) I should note that this sheet's tracking data at the subregion level
within affected countries.

------
loufe
I'm not sure this is much superior to Worldometer's tracker. It's been running
for weeks and seems to be lighter to load on my slow connection. The graphs
are definitely a plus, though.
[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

------
ISL
If you are interested in looking directly at their source-data, CSSE's github
repo is also quite interesting. We spent a bunch of time plotting it in
various ways last night.

[https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19)

------
samfi
I've found it helpful to view this data as time series (so that trends are
more apparent). This site uses this same dataset but shows historical trends
per country/region:

[https://www.covidstats.com](https://www.covidstats.com)

~~~
zachguo
Instead of the accumulated total, a better metric for showing trends is the
number of daily new cases, it shows whether the infection is accelerating or
not.

------
jfoster
Of those recovered, what condition are their lungs in? Currently the data
isn't capturing this but it's been suggested that covid-19 has a permanent
effect on the condition of many who are "recovered."

------
hcrisp
Adding to the list, this one US and Canadian only:

[https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en](https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en)

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mbaye
I find this one much more intelligible:
[https://covid19info.live/](https://covid19info.live/)

~~~
everybodyknows
Better presentation, but laggy: At this writing, no 03/06 data. Johns Hopkins
is complete through 03/06:

[https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594...](https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

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vezycash
Could they check to see if having Malaria inhibits infection by this virus?

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datashow
Something is wrong with the "Plots" tab. Two plots show different data points,
without title, but comes with same legends. And the legend does not make much
sense either. "Mainland China" and "Other Locations" make sense, but "Total
Recovered" as the third group? I don't understand this.

~~~
grenoire
Absolute versus logarithmic scale; the desktop version makes it clearer.

------
halliburton
much of this data (particularly the statistics on 'China') is unreliable.

~~~
Blaiz0r
I believe that has now been addressed, hence the spike in cases as shown in
the chart at the bottom rignt (on desktop).

------
jl2718
COVID-19 has probably saved more lives by reducing vehicle traffic than it has
killed.

------
stopads
The data is wrong for at least five or six cases near me, the county seems to
be missing or just wrong.

Why present a splashy tool like this if it just has bad data? This is
irresponsible.

------
dmitrygr
Whoever chose those graph colors (page 2: plots) needs to be taken to
accessibility training! WTF. A full 6% of all males are red green colorblind.
Who chooses yellow and green as graph colors?! Jeez

</Rant>

