Ask HN: How bad do you think the Covid-19 pandemic will get? - gautamcgoel
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lqs469
At present, the most likely situation is that as the temperature rises and
summer is approaching, the virus's ability to spread begins to decline. At the
same time, the strengthening of people's isolation measures makes the spread
of the virus continuously decrease. Then, whether the infected person has
cured or died, the virus is slowly disappearing from the human community.
However, the premise of all this is: (1)the government attaches sufficient
importance and has the ability to segregate his people and persist until the
summer comes. (2)The virus does not mutate.

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tobltobs
As it stands, scientists do not know how temperature changes will influence
the behavior of SARS-CoV-2.

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tomohawk
What we've already seen to date in affected areas is that the medical system
gets slammed, and any non-emergency medical care goes out the window. Elective
surgeries, or any surgery that can be put off at all will be put off. So,
death rate of other things goes up.

People with co-morbidities will die at higher rates. Diabetes, heart disease,
etc each add 5% or so. Up to 30% death rate for 60 years plus age range.

On the political side, more of what we're already seeing with a lot of finger
pointing and yelling, and not enough adults in the room willing to put aside
differences and work together.

