
Ask HN: What stock will you buy in 2015? - davidshariff
With 2015 fast approaching, what stock do you plan to buy and why? What sort of returns are you hoping for, and what time period are you looking at?
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adventured
Hopefully dirt cheap oil industry companies.

Eg. Halliburton (HAL) is currently 40% off. Or Continental Resources (CLR),
currently 50% off (assuming I think their balance sheet and earnings hold up
well enough to the pricing pressure and there's no threat of insolvency).

I'd love to get Exxon (XOM) in the $50's or $60's on a bearish run. Its
earnings will fall with oil, and its valuation should come down according
(despite holding up currently); it hasn't had growth in years, this will make
that much worse. Despite the lack of growth, Exxon would be a great dividend
at lower prices. I view Chevron (CVX) in a similar light.

Solar companies will plausibly take a beating as well, the lower oil goes.
Emotion will likely cause investors to make typical mistakes here, and push
valuations too low. First Solar (FSLR) is near its 52 week low, and will
probably drift lower with oil. SolarCity (SCTY) is also near its 52 week low.
This while the stock market is at all-time highs.

I think the damage will get worse yet, providing great bargains. If the market
happens to turn south as well, at the same time oil is down, there could be
extreme bargains, ala the oil lows of 1999/2001 and the great recession crash.

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fredmonroe
[http://www.valueshares.com/qval](http://www.valueshares.com/qval)

long term holding period, more information here
[http://etfdb.com/2014/affordable-active-alpha-inside-the-
u-s...](http://etfdb.com/2014/affordable-active-alpha-inside-the-u-s-
quantitative-value-etf-qval/)

i'm a fan of Wes Gray's writing and philosophy and approach, if you really
want detail read: [http://www.amazon.com/Quantitative-Value-Practitioners-
Intel...](http://www.amazon.com/Quantitative-Value-Practitioners-Intelligent-
Eliminating-
ebook/dp/B00B1FK0AS/ref=sr_1_1_twi_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1417660915&sr=1-1&keywords=quantitative+value)

disclaimer: i am good friends with an principal investor in their ETF
business.

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GuiA
(Disclaimer: I only buy tech stock with the money I truly don't need - I
essentially see it as a lottery for nerds. My savings/retirement planning/etc.
go in more traditional places)

I feel like Tesla might be worth it for the very long term. (again, I buy
technology stock with the intent of not looking at it for 20 years)

A grid of electric self driving cars seems to be a pretty likely human future
for large metropolises by 2050, and Tesla is in a good position to have a
solid lead and be the Microsoft of their industry. Imagine if all of Tokyo,
NYC, Beijing, etc. were traveled solely by electric autonomous cars and Tesla
operated most of them.

Tesla will be to General Motors what Apple is to IBM in terms of revenue and
cultural impact.

~~~
toomuchtodo
I'd like to second this, and by that, I mean scream it from a rooftop.

As /u/GuiA says, "I feel like Tesla might be worth it in the long term." Tesla
isn't going to be Apple in my opinion though, they're going to be Google for
mobility and energy storage. If you're an automaker who isn't stupid enough to
go after fuel-cells, you're going to need automotive cells, and Tesla will be
waiting to sell those cells to everyone.

Renewables continue to deploy at an increasing rate, but base load is still a
problem. Would you rather install new nuclear or combined cycle natural gas
plants? Or lithium (ion, polymer, whatever) cells stacked in cargo containers
at critical power grid locations to smooth out supply and demand? Tesla will
be there to sell you those too, as well as the battery packs for your home
(made from repurposed Tesla vehicle packs that are no longer feasible for
mobility, but are just fine for stationary applications).

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zwiteof
Vanguard target date retirement fund. Auto-invest set and forget. Maybe once I
have more I'll do a 3-fund portfolio to reduce the expenses a bit. Returns
should generally track the market, pretty much hold until retirement.

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logn
I always like this blog which focuses on stable/growing dividends:
[http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/](http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/)

But I tend to think that an S&P 500 index fund is just as good. However, I
also believe central banks have been investing in the S&P as well, and that
it's due for a large correction (valuations are currently 2x historical
norms).

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chuhnk
Definitely some sort of index fund like vanguard. Then try to de-risk my
portfolio by making some non-tech investments. And finally leave some money
aside to wait and see what IPOs next year. Investing starts with the new tax
year which is April in the UK.

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munimkazia
I think Oil and oil related industries would be good bet. Plastics,
fertilizer, etc.

