

Venezuela's squatter skyscrapers; as the country declines - ck2
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/world/americas/01venezuela.html?_r=1

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petercooper
And, yet again, a dystopian J G Ballard (late British sci-fi author and author
of _Empire Of The Sun_ ) story becomes reality..

Ballard's _High Rise_ (1975) - <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Rise> \-
shares a lot of similarities with this outcome (though the tower in the book
was in London) and is a fine read to boot. The eventual outcome is the
formation of different "clans" of residents based on blocks of floors having
intra-building "wars" with each other. I believe that, finally, a movie is
being created of this film by the guy who created _Cube_.

~~~
EdiX
> I believe that, finally, a movie is being created of this film by the guy
> who created Cube.

It seems that wikipedia also believes that:

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vincenzo_Natali>

~~~
petercooper
I'm hesitant because movies based on Ballard books make Duke Nukem Forever
look like a sure thing.. ;-)

~~~
EdiX
OTOH Duke Nukem Forever is a sure thing now.

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ck2
How long is their oil supply supposed to last?

Because after that, it's really going to get harsh, it's 80% of the country's
income.

This has also happened in Brazil.

~~~
michaelchisari
The very conservative estimates put the readily recoverable amount at around
380 billion barrels. World oil consumption is 90 million barrels a day, or
32.85 billion barrels a year. That means that if Venezuela was the only place
left for oil, we'd be looking at around 11 years until it runs out.

In the real world, that means 234 years at current rates. Obviously, as oil
runs dry, that means market forces push up the costs, and Venezuela becomes
wealthier.

I think that Venezuela nationalizing the oil fields was a good decision, and I
support the principles of the Bolivarian revolution in theory, although I
think Chavez has been incompetent at implementing them, although there have
been important positives, especially when dealing with issues of severe
poverty. I especially support the push for direct democracy, but of course, I
think it should be further decoupled from the government.

Most in the US are familiar with Chavez through his foreign policy, which is
god damn awful. It's embarrassing at best, and in the case of his support for
Gaddafi, unconscionable in the worst of times. It's unfortunate that this is
the most outside Venezuela know about its politics.

At the top economic level, there are other models to learn from, Rwanda's
universal health care and internet investment, and China's infrastructure
investment for instance, but I think a mix of a Lula-style approach and a
Norwegian style social investment of oil money would be the best approach.

Oh, to answer your question: Not for a very long time.

~~~
lionhearted
I'd like to show you some graphs. I'm going to use link shorteners because
they're very very long ugly urls.

Homicides per 10,000 people, 1983 to 2003:

<http://bit.ly/hmivsb>

<http://bit.ly/gOATzm>

Starting in 2004, the government prohibited release of the figures.

<http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35766.htm#econ>

About 25% of the country lives in abject poverty, despite the fact that the
country is doing over $10 billion in profits on $30 billion of revenues for
oil.

Before I analyze, let me lay my cards on the table here philosophically - I'm
a classical liberal, but I'm kind of flexible in my positions - I think a
diverse set of governments across the world is good, and then let people vote
with their feet. Different structures work for different people - I wouldn't
want to live in Norway's system, but I think Norway's system is awesome for
most Norwegians.

Now, let's talk about Venezuela. I think Venezuela is one of the most
criminally misgoverned places on the whole planet. There's more violent deaths
in Caracas in any given month than Baghdad. _Baghdad_ , dude.

This is my beef with the sort of government Venezuela has - I think it's very
conducive to degenerating into rule-by-bandit, which is what they have. (I'm
in Vietnam, which is also under rule-by-bandit)

The biggest argument against Venezuela's sort of government isn't necessarily
abstract philosophy - it's that it doesn't really work well in the real world.
I think Venezuela is criminally misgoverned and in desperate need of change.

You and I are probably very, very far apart in political philosophies, but I
wanted to write this anyways.

I'm kind of vaguely of the belief that capitalism + strong welfare state can
work for some people, especially with a population that has similar goals and
unified culture. There's downsides to it, but there's downsides to everything.
But I'm pretty damn sure that the Venezuelan model leads to rule-by-bandit,
leaving many people impoverished, and explosive growth in crime and violence
and unrest. I don't know 100% what my goal here is with this comment - I guess
just to put some numbers and views on the table. I think the Venezuelan model
is a disaster for Venezuelans, and indeed, the whole world. I think everyone
should work together against governments like Venezuela, North Korea, Libya,
places like that, even if you'd like to live somewhere like Scandinavia.
Venezuela ain't no Scandinavia.

~~~
calibraxis
Now let me share with you some info about the US:

More than 1 in 100 adults in the United States are in prison. The United
States has less than 5% of the world's population and 23.4% of the world's
prison population.

([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_the_United_Sta...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_the_United_States#Comparison_with_other_countries))

The 2009 U.S. military budget accounts for approximately 40% of global arms
spending and is over six times larger than the military budget of China. The
United States and its close allies are responsible for two-thirds to three-
quarters of the world's military spending (of which, in turn, the U.S. is
responsible for the majority).

([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_S...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States#Comparison_with_other_countries))

From wars against the Mideast, healthcare, the environment, teachers, working
class, democracy; and in favor of corporations, capitalism, etc... Many (maybe
most, like myself) here are from the US, and I think the US's wealthy elites
are a greater threat to the world than teachers unions and Venezuelans. So
let's focus on not only what we're in a position to affect — as citizens with
above-average power and privileges — but what matters too.

~~~
rick888
"The United States has less than 5% of the world's population and 23.4% of the
world's prison population."

Did you ever stop and think that if some of the other countries mentioned
weren't so corrupt, they might also have a higher prison population? Our
system is pretty, damn fair, even though once in awhile it fails and an
innocent person goes to prison.

"The 2009 U.S. military budget accounts for approximately 40% of global arms
spending and is over six times larger than the military budget of China. The
United States and its close allies are responsible for two-thirds to three-
quarters of the world's military spending (of which, in turn, the U.S. is
responsible for the majority)."

The US has to babysit the world. I wish it wasn't the case, but most countries
do not have their shit together.

"US's wealthy elites are a greater threat to the world than teachers unions
and Venezuelans."

Teacher's unions directly threaten good education, which can lead to
uneducated citizens and poverty. It's very difficult to get fired while you
are in a teacher's union and there is no incentive to actually teach well.
I've seen the same thing happen in the auto unions. It's like a mini example
of why communism doesn't work (everybody is equal and since you not only get
an automatic raise every year, and everybody in your department/position needs
to get a raise if you do, it offers no reason to actually do better).

Capitalism isn't a bad thing. It's provided the best standard of living the
world has ever seen. There may be some problems with it, but we shouldn't
discount it as a whole.

I don't know how you can say the US is against the environment. If you mean
global warming, then yes. Global warming isn't a religion. I need more
evidence than what we have (which is based on falsified data) to prove that
it's man-made. It's also become such a politicized issue, that if you are a
scientist and go against it, you can lose funding from the government and
respect from your peers. Nobody scientist would want to do this.

~~~
arethuza
You might want to compare incarceration levels in the US with other not-
particularly-corrupt countries:

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration>

~~~
yummyfajitas
Compare us to the UK, but compare like for like. Most of our prison population
is comprised of high crime groups who do not exist to any significant degree
(35% of the US, 2.6% of the UK) in the UK.

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_and_crime_in_the_United_St...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_and_crime_in_the_United_States#Racial_demographics_of_the_US)

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_Kingdo...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_Kingdom#Ethnicity)

That said, our prison population is still large even after accounting for
this, just not as large as the naive statistics make out.

~~~
michaelchisari
_majority of the prison population in the US comprise only 2.4% of the UK._

I'll point out another statistic which doesn't look good for our incarceration
rates, regardless of the racial demographic argument you're making:

 _Half_ of all persons incarcerated under state jurisdiction are for non-
violent offenses, and 20% are incarcerated for drug offenses, in State
prisons. _Federal prison percentages are higher._

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dmm
Democracy isn't a panacea. See also: South Africa, the crumbling rape-capital.

~~~
diego_moita
As a South American that doesn't want the return of military dictatorships
era, I need to add this:

> Democracy isn't a panacea. See also: South Africa, the crumbling rape-
> capital.

No, it isn't a panacea. But dictatorships are a disease and democracy is a
cure for that particular disease.

Also, you can fight crime in big cities in a democracy (e.g.: NYC, Sao Paulo
and in the last months Rio de Janeiro)

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rbarooah
The most interesting point to me was the fact that one of the people mentioned
had a finance job with the government and _still_ has to squat in this tower.

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VMG
I wonder how long it takes for organized crime to get involved with this.

ps: for me nyt only displays correctly with adblock disabled

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ck2
nyt works with adblock for me, but after you read 5 pages you have to clear
the nyt cookie or it forced login

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kragen
This is a wonderful article. I wonder how much of it is true?

I didn't know Sambil had been taken over by the government; that's where I
used to go to get internet access when I was in Caracas.

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trenton
NYT paywall got you down?

[http://www.google.com/search?q=45-Story+Walkup+Beckons+the+D...](http://www.google.com/search?q=45-Story+Walkup+Beckons+the+Desperate)

