

Ask YC: What do you think of my new startup? - topgear

Please could you spare a few minutes to check out: http://foobets.com and give me your honest opinion.<p>The basic idea is to allow a community of users to 'pitch' and 'bet' on predictions in tech, sport, politics etc.<p>The first few hundred folk to sign up get a free Pro Account, which I'm considering charging at $10 per year, but might give away free if I decide to ignore 37 Signals advice and follow PG's strategy to grow as quickly as possible.
======
tx
I find it hard to believe that kick-ass Linux kernel developers (among many
others) give away a whole operating system, worth billions in dev. costs, yet
on the same planet someone is thinking about charging $10 for a time waster.

There is nothing wrong with trying to make a buck. But the disparity of
programmers' mindsets is amazing.

~~~
ericb
The majority of the world chooses not to work for free. My landlord certainly
won't let me live rent-free. I can't go to a movie for free. So I'm not sure
who are _the weird ones_ (or disparate) in this equation.

That said, I love, use and appreciate open source. It's just not the only
answer, and many people working on open source are compensated by a sponsor
(IBM, Sun, etc.). Is it fair to pick on someone for expecting to be _paid_ for
their work? World of Warcraft isn't much more than a time waster.

~~~
tx
I am not picking on anybody, I don't code much for free either (should be
apparent by looking at my profile). I am just wondering out loud how some guys
afford to do that, while others (myself included) try to follow PG's advice of
building something small and easy on top of mountains of free products created
by others.

In fact, if I were Zuckenberg, I'd give a fat chunk of Facebook stock to
various free software projects such as PHP, etc. Moreover, I believe it should
become a tradition, those guys are the reason why "startups are so cheap!"
(quote) these days.

~~~
aditya
They did, with VA Software when all the free software hackers became
temporarily rich. And we all know how that story ended :)

------
Kilimanjaro
I'll give you a few tips that will make you rich, listen carefully.

Let people bet with paypal in every prediction, just $1 per bet. Winners share
the pot and you keep 5% of proceedings.

Make a triple choice so odds are more distributed Yes,No,Tie and use simple
icons for one-click-bet (like digg).

Put sports, lots of them (but don't over saturate).

Keep it simple as it is right now.

Put a section at the top with the top ten predictions by bets, for marketing
(one million dollars bet on obama/mccain will draw a lot of attention).

You will charge for VIP accounts a year later for extra services but you won't
need that money, you'll be rich already.

Good luck and remember me if you hit the jackpot.

I know you will!

~~~
Kilimanjaro
More tips:

Don't let people post predictions to the front page, you be the filter and the
editor, you are the decider.

Let people buy 10, 20 or 50 "tokens" to fill their account so they don't have
to go through paypal everytime they bet.

Allow a maximum of tokens per certain period of time (100 a month) so people
don't get addicted and ruin your site with lawsuits.

Also, keep suspicious "winners" at bay with algorythms.

Pay prizes directly to users accounts (not back to paypal) so they "reinvest"
again playing, so the money is always in your control and you will make lots
of money in interests, (you could give away your comission if you want so the
whole pot goes to the players).

If they decide to cash out, send the money to their paypal account. Not
everybody will, so less overhead at the end.

~~~
0x44
To take the token idea further, make sure it's impossible to evenly divide
tokens by an action. For instance, if $10.00 purchases 1000 tokens, charge 150
tokens for each "bet".

------
ashleyw
Yes, don't try to charge for this, you will get nowhere fast..

Giving away a few hundred Pro accounts may get you so far, but as soon as you
stop you will come to a brick wall - I can't see people paying for this.

Though I do like the idea a lot! ;)

------
alexk
Just a thought: you could add a brief explanation on what people can get using
your app, just a couple of words on the start page.

------
krschultz
What problem are you solving? Why would people want to get involved in this?
Aren't there established competitors (I know for sure there are in politics)
with communities? Why do you think people will pay $10 a year when they don't
even pay for the most important thing online (email). This is the 0 cents vs 1
cent arguement - most people won't pay for anything if it requires them to go
through the effort of pulling out their credit card. I'd say if it is a free
time waster, you might grow a community, but even then, where is the money
coming from? Ads? I think free time waster ad supported websites as a business
model is failing - if YouTube and Facebook are struggling, why would yours
work?

------
ivey
Another site to be aware of is <http://inklingmarkets.com/> ... they have a
free prediction market that anyone can use, and then have it available as a
platform for enterprisey goodness.

Your site is the cleanest of the ones I've seen, so that may be a win. Make it
easy to embed predictions in websites, and make an API for people to build
mashups with.

As others have said, though...I don't think many people will pay $10/mo unless
there's something much more compelling that we haven't seen yet.

Oh, a "Closing Soon" search would be nice, too.

------
axod
Charging won't work IMHO... However, why not make it an actual betting system
where people can make money, then skim a profit from each bet/trade/etc.

Sure, might have some legal hoops to jump through, but an online betting on
tech things could be fun and profitable.

Positioning it as something that you can make money with, makes it a whole
different thing IMHO.

------
seekely
I like the idea. Though, in its current form, probably not enough to pay.

As a suggestion, I think the site could be little more fun/game-y instead of
looking like a list of articles. And maybe make the current hot/popular
prediction be the most prominent thing on the page asking 'Do you think
<link>X</link> or <link>Y</link> will happen", so a new person on the site
immediately has something to see and do.

Good luck!

------
antidaily
The percentage indicator seems misplaced. Its a bit confusing at first to even
know what it means.

------
FredSource
check out www.predictify.com --- might give you some ideas on how to make a
buck (and what you are up against!)

~~~
jsmcgd
Some guy I know is doing the same thing. This validates your idea but
obviously also implies a bit more competition. <http://www.hubdub.com/>

~~~
whatusername
And for anyone who missed this one lately ---> look at the stakes on this bet!
<http://www.longbets.org/362>

------
thrill
you might consider adding an openid signup/signin

