
Covid-19 reduces economic activity, which reduces pollution, which saves lives - bookofjoe
http://www.g-feed.com/2020/03/covid-19-reduces-economic-activity.html
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>Using the He et al 2016 estimates of the impact of changes in PM on
mortality, I calculate that having 2 months of 10ug/m3 reductions in PM2.5
likely has saved the lives of 4,000 kids under 5 and 73,000 adults over 70 in
China.

Given that:

1\. The calculated value of a human life is $129,000 per year of quality life
and $10,000,000 overall[0],

2\. 70 year olds will statistically live for another 10 years,

3\. The quality-adjusted year of life for each year above the age of 70 is
either 0.5 or 1.0,

then this amounts to $134 billion worth of additional life for a quality-
adjusted life year of 1.0 per year[1], or $87 billion worth of additional life
for a quality-adjusted life year of 0.5[2]. You can think about this as the
amount of money the government should be willing to spend to save all these
lives, as opposed to spending it on other life-saving measures.

Given that

* Every kg of CO2 emissions translates to $0.30 of increased economic activity, [3]

* The graphs in the linked post seem to show about a 10% drop in pollution due to Covid-19,

* China emitted 11,000 Megatons of CO2 in 2017[4]

it seems as if that 10ug per cubic meter drop ended up costing China's economy
$330 billion in economic activity[5]. That figure is far too close to the
previous numbers of $134 billion and $87 billion; this issue won't be settled
with a simple Fermi estimate. Nevertheless, this Fermi estimate undercuts the
apparent mandate to cut pollution at all costs.

I will stick with demanding that the government plants trees at $1 per tree,
with 1 ton of CO2 sequestered per tree, and doing absolutely nothing else for
the environment until that option has been completely exhausted[6].

[0]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life#United_States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life#United_States)

[1]
[https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALeKk00rf3n-TJyS5UIGiwyc...](https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALeKk00rf3n-TJyS5UIGiwycwZK2-9mKDQ%3A1584008702267&ei=_g1qXu3oD4GYsQXbxqWQCw&q=73000*10*129%2C000+%2B+4000*10%2C000%2C000&oq=73000*10*129%2C000+%2B+4000*10%2C000%2C000&gs_l=psy-
ab.3...10938.29483..30459...4.2..0.165.1994.12j8......0....1..gws-
wiz.......0i71j33i299.3Nx8ZkZEXYM&ved=0ahUKEwjt35Og3JToAhUBTKwKHVtjCbIQ4dUDCAs&uact=5)

[2]
[https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALeKk00q-bhIeMjWEofPOU21...](https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALeKk00q-bhIeMjWEofPOU214Pc8Yln3xA%3A1584009142054&ei=tg9qXrL3AoactgXM5aL4CA&q=73000*10*0.5*129%2C000+%2B+4000*10%2C000%2C000&oq=73000*10*0.5*129%2C000+%2B+4000*10%2C000%2C000&gs_l=psy-
ab.3...63271.67302..68021...0.2..0.102.699.7j1......0....1..gws-
wiz.......0i71.Hc9jUabrdWo&ved=0ahUKEwiyqu7x3ZToAhUGjq0KHcyyCI8Q4dUDCAs&uact=5)

[3]
[https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PP.GD](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PP.GD)

[4]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_di...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)

[5]
[https://www.google.com/search?q=11%2C000e6+*+1000+*+0.1+*+0....](https://www.google.com/search?q=11%2C000e6+*+1000+*+0.1+*+0.3&oq=11%2C000e6+*+1000+*+0.1+*+0.3&aqs=chrome..69i57j6.8691j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8)

[6]
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19714203](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19714203)

