

Jobs predicts iAds will steal 48% of mobile advertising market - thiele
http://venturebeat.com/2010/06/07/iad-apple-steve-jobs/

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xenophanes
> claims that 48% of spending on mobile advertising in the United States

So, to clarify, that's 48% by dollars not number of ads served. And it's US
only.

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Natsu
48% implies an accuracy of plus or minus 1%. I don't care how fancy the
spreadsheet that gave them that prediction was, that number appears to have
been sourced from someone's posterior. There's no way they can predict it with
that accuracy.

I'd believe that it's a target, or a goal, but that still doesn't sound right.
Why wouldn't they aim for 50% or 51%? Why can they _almost_ , but not quite,
capture a majority? An attempt to manage expectations?

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jstevens85
I don't see why 48% would imply an accuracy of less than ±1%. When people make
predictions or forecasts, they typically don't include error margins when
talking to the public. For example, the US 2010 deficit forecast is $1.17
trillion. I have no idea where one could find the margin of error for that
forecast.

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Natsu
There are two significant figures in "48%" so one assumes that it means ±1%
unless some other accuracy level is supplied.

Maybe it's overly pedantic of me to suppose that they even know what
significant figures are, but even so, I can't find any reasonable way for them
to arrive at a statistic like that doesn't involve making up numbers.

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kj12345
So I understand the delivery part of this technology and the appeal to app
developers, but what does the ad creation side look like? I mean is someone
(at Apple?) hand-coding html/css/js for each of these ads? Or will there be an
authoring tool analogous to the Flash dev environment?

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dirtyaura
As far as I've understood, Apple has said that they will handcraft the very
first ads. I assume that they will introduce tools/APIs to do ads later, but
if I memory serves me correctly, they haven't confirmed this.

I can see that they do it this way for two reasons: first, typical Apple
priorization: no time to do everything with limited resources so they first do
tools for themselves and then polish them for others. Second, by doing
polished ads themselves, they create an example of ad-culture they want.

Interesting aspect of iAds is that they require a much more work than e.g.
Google Adwords. This means that an ad agency ecosystem will evolve around
these ads. My guess is that agencies that specialize on these ads will have to
take a big role in selling these ads to advertisers. Which might be exactly
what Apple wants.

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kj12345
Interesting. Yeah I mean even the average interactive ad where a couple
screens of text slide in and then some links appear requires a bunch of back
and forth and refinement in my experience, so there'd definitely be a market
for competent creators of these ads.

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ugh
Apple’s ads are quite costly – they will probably never serve the most ads or
get the most eyeballs but they will probably have high revenue.

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wmeredith
Kind of like everything else they do.

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martythemaniak
Why not just revise the developer agreement to squeeze out AdSense/AdMob? They
kinda did already (with the 3rd party analytics), but I'm sure there's more
they could do.

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Isamu
Note that these appear to be premium, highly visual, highly interactive ads -
the territory previously served by Flash. Now they stand to profit nicely from
a native ad ecosystem. Could this have been in the works all along? Does this
partly explain the Flash strategy?

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jboydyhacker
How does he get to half of the U.S. market while just being on one carrier.
Unless he is planning on allowing the phone on Verizon I'm not sure how that
math works. Maybe he is..

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sorbus
The idea, it seems, is to get half of the spending, by providing more value
per view, as well as mandating both a minimum level of quality of
advertisements (I recall hearing that Apple's design team was doing the ads
for the first batch of companies on iAd) and implicitly supporting them by
allowing them on the platform.

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jgrant27
What is the state of the tech world when the CEO of the highest valued tech
company today, talks about advertising at a developer conference ?

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ryanhuff
Considering that another very large tech company owes its valuation to an ad
driven business model, I'd say its not a huge surprise to anybody.

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jgrant27
Does the other 'very large tech company' do this at their developer
conferences ?

<http://code.google.com/events/io/2010/schedule.html>

Have a look at the program guide and let me know ...

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jsnell
Yes, mobile ads were discussed during the Android keynote.

