
How many needless Covid-19 deaths were caused by delays in responding? - doener
https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/19/faster-response-prevented-most-us-covid-19-deaths/
======
haltingproblem
Depends on your base-line. Take Taiwan.

Taiwan was masked up and implemented international quarantine in January along
with full contract/tracing. Yes, they have characteristics and infrastructure
we cannot perfectly replicate like a homogeneous population with _relatively_
even socio-economic status, social cohesions and a strong societal memory of
SARs with infrastructure to go along with it and a complete mistrust of
information coming from WHO and China.

But even if we did 80% as well as Taiwan we are talking about almost 100,000
deaths. I think the excess mortality is around 2x what we are seeing in the
official death figures so more like 200,000 deaths.

Add in the trillions in the bailout and economic damage, this might be the
worst decision ever.

Taleb et.al issued a warning on Jan 26 about this. As he said - governments
“did not want to spend pennies in January; now they are going to spend
trillions.” [1]

[1] [https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pandemic-
is...](https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pandemic-isnt-a-black-
swan-but-a-portent-of-a-more-fragile-global-system)

~~~
CydeWeys
> Add in the trillions in the bailout and economic damage, this might be the
> worst decision ever.

This was caused by the pandemic itself, not by the reaction to it. There's no
scenario in which a pandemic ravaging unchecked through the populace does not
create massive economic damage.

~~~
freeone3000
It didn't have to be unchecked. That's the thing. Taiwan never closed down.

~~~
CydeWeys
We would have needed a better president in the White House at the very minimum
to have had a better response. And that's enough of a counterfactual that I'm
just taking the current situation as a given. Given the president we do have,
the current result seems to have been inevitable one way or another. We
could've had fewer deaths here in NYC with a better governor and mayor who
acted more quickly, but again, this is a hell of a counterfactual.

------
gringoDan
Part of the problem is that as human beings, we are awful at assigning credit
and blame for hypothetical scenarios.

When in the best-case scenario nothing happens, politicians aren't
incentivized to take strong action at the expense of harming the economy.
They'll be blamed for the unemployment and harsh actions when "the disease
wasn't that bad" – even though it "wasn't that bad" due to the prevention
measures taken in the first place.

Look at Seattle vs. NYC. NY's Governor Andrew Cuomo has been largely praised
for his leadership, but that's purely optics. Had he acted sooner, lives would
have been saved. [1]

[1] [https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/04/seattles-
leade...](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/04/seattles-leaders-let-
scientists-take-the-lead-new-yorks-did-not)

~~~
Zigurd
The pandemic may also require us to conclude that a free market in health
care, and individuals making purportedly rational decisions about the value of
their own lives in the context of their economic status is not what should
happen in a modern society.

~~~
trentnix
“Our government response to the pandemic was terrible!”

...

“If the pandemic may also require us to conclude that we need more
government!”

I’ll never understand this line of thinking.

~~~
freeone3000
Okay, let me take a stab at it.

Linking health care directly to employment means that people CANNOT take off
work if they're sick. This is dangerous in normal times. In a pandemic, this
means that businesses shutting down isn't just an economic crisis, it's also a
health care crisis.

The idea of individual responsibility for group problems, like a pandemic,
leads to actors predictably behaving selfishly (staying open, no masks, going
to work) -- it's predictable and preventable by socializing the
responsibility.

And secondarily, because the US government is incompetent and has been for
years does not mean that government, in general, is a failure.

------
komali2
In another thread I commented that because of our knowledge of how the US
government handled coronavirus and disasters such as Katrina, it's vitally
important that individuals and families cast out any thought or hope of aid,
assistance, or rescue from the US fed government in a disaster and instead
work to prepare themselves and their community for events like this.

This article is demonstrating that this isn't a political position - it's just
a fact of life in the USA.

~~~
krapp
What you've described is a political position, and the result of political
policy - that of American conservatives, Republicans and libertarians.

It doesn't _have_ to be a fact of life in the US, but it is because half of
the country believes taxation is theft and "the government that governs least,
governs best."

------
11thEarlOfMar
Scaling up the population of one country and comparing to the US is not going
to be a valid comparison. Korea is comparable in size and population to
California, but you would not judge the timing of the response of California
against the response of, say, Kentucky.

Singapore is a bit smaller in population than the SF Bay Area, but you
wouldn't judge the timing of the response of Bay Area measures vs., say,
Miami.

There are 3 very good comparisons to make in Europe. Three different
approaches and 3 different outcomes, in terms of peak cases, peak deaths, and
timing of implementing various measures. Italy, Germany and Sweden would be
better comparison/contrasts than Singapore vs. the USA. For the USA, compare
on a regional basis versus the countries in the study.

Exaggerating to make the point, It's valid to do this type of analysis, but
comparing the attributes of a scaled up mouse to an elephant isn't going to be
of much value.

------
pstuart
Or by not having masks freely available and required for public space? A
couple billion dollars worth handed out as needed, with a social contract that
wearing a mask is patriotic.

~~~
war1025
> a social contract that wearing a mask is patriotic.

I don't know when it happened exactly, but I feel like the general public has
completely lost any sense of patriotism. I remember it being a big deal when I
was a kid in the 90s. These days, there just isn't really any national pride.
I guess probably related to 9/11, Iraq, Afghanistan,etc.

~~~
maxerickson
Americans are rabidly patriotic.

To the point where it's all about symbols and not even about shared values.

~~~
pstuart
If patriotic is declaring oneself to be a patriot, than your first statement
is true.

And do they love their symbolism, to the point where they declare that they
would die for a fucking flag.

------
redleggedfrog
As a matter of preference America values commerce over life. The slow response
is because in general America is trading lives for liberty. Essentially life
is cheap. You might disagree with assessment and chalk up the bungled response
to incompetence, but I don't think that makes sense in light of the reopening
of public life as the virus spreading accelerates. We're still opting for this
strategy now. And it might be the right decision for America. We'll just have
to accept the loss of life as collateral damage. I don't agree, but I'm not
making the decisions.

~~~
11thEarlOfMar
Life is not cheap in the USA. However, liberty is of greater value. Liberty is
possibly what Americans value above all else, life being a close second.

Hence: "Give me Liberty or give me death.", Patrick Henry, 1775

And: "Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.", Declaration of
Independence, 1776

------
chooseaname
Here in FL we just added 4000+ more cases. Every day we break our own record.
Our governor seems to think he can blame it on "Hispanics". Sigh.

Where did we go so wrong in this country? Why do people not _care_ about each
other?

------
catsdanxe
How many mental health issues are caused by excessive lockdown measures?

------
londons_explore
Effectively all of them... A decent response would have detected a new disease
before it got past 30 cases, and a good lockdown or tracing campaign at that
point would have eliminated it entirely.

~~~
SpicyLemonZest
The experiences of China and Korea strongly suggest that good lockdown and
tracing campaigns cannot eliminate it entirely.

~~~
londons_explore
Both cases likely failed due to imports from other countries.

If action was prompt before the virus spread to other countries, that wouldn't
happen.

------
chiefalchemist
It's easy to say "we should have locked down sooner." Monday morning QB'ing;
it's what humans do.

This is not hypothetical: Approx 50% of deaths are nursing homes related

However, allowing the ongoing attacks (i.e., we're at war) on nursing homes
was, and often still is, very real. Before we get districted by what could
have been, let's stay focused on reality.

Had nursing homes been hardened and protected - as they should have been - the
whole story changes.

