

Mary Meeker's 2014 Internet Trends - rkudeshi
http://www.kpcb.com/file/kpcb-internet-trends-2014

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mikepmalai
TLDR:

1\. Still more runway for smartphone usage - 30% mobile penetration

2\. Tablets growing with plenty of penetration opportunity - 400M+ tablets vs.
800M Laptops and 1.6B smartphones

3\. Mobile internet install base will be 10x desktop install base

4\. More mobile, more security problems

5\. Things aren't so bubbly when compared to 2000

6\. Youtube is teaching your kids and that's a good thing (my words)

7\. Healthcare will hopefully get better with technology

8\. People love chat apps and sharing videos + pics

9\. Apps are unbundling: "There's an app for that..."

10\. Turn all your content into lists and you will strike social distribution
gold (my words)

11\. Apps will save you time, money, find your next love, and do everything
else for you same day by removing the friction of human interaction.

12\. Any bitcoin based chart looks like a hockey stick (my words)

13\. Big data slides - real time, sensors, cloud, data mining

14\. Hardware costs down, cloud usage up

15\. Online video is big and will be on your TV too

16\. China

17\. Drones

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vii
Once again, awesome analysis. Highlights for me

\- great breakdown of timespent/adspend per medium showing huge potential for
ads on mobile and overspend on print

\- the tablet/phone boundary is being stretched by Korea with very low
'tablet' use but high phablet use

\- clear age division on transition to online on-demand TV

\- music switching to subscription with collapse of pay per track

\- video consumption grows and grows on mobile

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sutterbomb
Tablet growth still booming, while iPad growth has slowed considerably and is
causing analysts to rethink importance of iPad/tablets.

Slide 96 helps tell the story - cheap generic tablets market in underdeveloped
countries as tv supplement/replacements.

~~~
the_watcher
iPad growth has slowed as it was originally designed as a high end device, so
most people who would buy one have bought theirs (same with those replacing
computers with them). It's hard to justify spending the money on something
that only offers a slight portability upgrade on a MacBook Air unless you do
something with it unique, like read comics.

The interesting piece is overall tablet use growing, as the non-iPad options
continue to improve and offer a cheap alternative for doing things like going
to a coffee shop or browsing on CalTrain.

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tmsh
'Ain't bout what you walk away from, it's bout what you walk away with.' -Lil
Wayne

I'd summarize the end of this report (which for me is the best part with):

a) it doesn't matter if you're first-generation or second-generation as a
founder b) if your app or site or service can participate in China, you have
10x booster thrusters.

~~~
mathattack
The China piece is a big insight. Huge population! I think the overseas
strength is what made WeChat so valuable.

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conorh
I figured this might appear on hacker news soon enough. If anyone has any
questions about the tech behind this microsite (although it is pretty
straightforward) let me know. We developed the site and the hosting to account
for an enormous amount of traffic in a very short period of time. So far
everything is working fine.

~~~
anonymous_
when I tried to view using firefox, the cpu bar kept high eating all the
memory and unresponsive. I saw in firebug net tab that every slide was being
fetch from slideshare in a loop. Does not happen in chrome.

~~~
Dorian-Marie
I can confirm that Slideshare is eating all CPU, maybe use Speaker Deck:
[https://speakerdeck.com/](https://speakerdeck.com/)

~~~
justincormack
Or start using HTML for slides. like with text and stuff, not images.

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iandanforth
Such poor design for mobile. Almost unusable on a nexus 4. Ironic given the
emphasis mobile gets in the presentation.

~~~
conorh
I'm interested to hear the feedback. We did the design for the site and tested
it extensively on mobile. What issue are you seeing? My email is in my profile
if you want to drop me a line.

edit: The slideshare embed is having some issues on mobile and desktop
unfortunately. Very slow. They are working on it.

~~~
masterleep
It was unviewable due to the slowness. Just linking to the PDF on a static
webserver somewhere would have been far superior.

~~~
properslang
We added a link to the pdf beneath the slidedeck. We should have considered
doing that in the first place - hindsight is 20/20.

It's listed above but here it is again: [http://www.kpcb.com/file/kpcb-
internet-trends-2014](http://www.kpcb.com/file/kpcb-internet-trends-2014)

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callmeed
From Slide 9: mobile usage as a % of web usage is now 25%. It was 14% last
year.

This seems contrary to what we hear about native apps dominating smartphone
usage. Obviously that web usage isn't "HTML5 Apps" per se and I'm sure apps
dominate services like Facebook, Yelp, etc ... but that number and growth
seems very significant.

~~~
dreamfactory2
I think everybody's stats are getting thrown out by the tendency of iOS
browsers (at least) to refresh page just about every time app or tab focus
changes.

~~~
sutterbomb
I suspect that's unlikely - most analytics are focused on time-based sessions,
where refreshes don't matter.

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mathattack
An open question - is Mary Meeker still taken as seriously as she was 15 years
ago? I don't talk to enough people in the investor community to know either
way.

~~~
ghaff
Mary and others like Steve Milunovich at Morgan Stanley were in a rather
unique place and time 15 years ago because the Internet was just becoming this
very-important-thing and very few people really understood it. Today's a lot
different. That said, this presentation is widely viewed as pretty important
annual snapshot of certain trends. Note though that Mary is at KPCB [Edit:
Corrected] these days so her focus is presumably a bit different than when she
was employed in financial services.

~~~
cschmidt
I think you mean KPCB, or else she still would be in financial services of a
sort.

~~~
ghaff
Duh. You're right of course. Corrected.

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patkai
If this is called "analysis" then there is no hope.

~~~
gone35
Indeed. In fact it's just a tad below what passes for state-of-art proprietary
"analysis" for clients in that industry. You'll never, _ever_ see error bars
in those graphs, for instance; nor any non-hand-waving rationale for the
implicit fungibility assumptions behind most (if not all) of their claims
about "potential" \---like the notorious "~$30+ bn mobile market opportunity /
print is overspent" one in slide 15, which blithely assumes that the value of
user engagement with ads per unit of _time_ spent ought to be the same
regardless of the medium: be it a tiny smartphone screen in the middle of a
stressful subway commute, or a full-page glossy magazine ad with enclosed
perfume sample on a weekend evening.

Apart from the satiric element of such analytic uselessness though, I like
these reports for what they reveal about the industry's collective anxieties
and fixations --- _tablet tablet tablet, social social social, ads ads ads,
data data data, china china china_. _Cf_ for instance, in slide 90, this eye-
opening jewel:

 _Biggest Re-Imagination of All = People Enabled With Mobile Devices + Sensors
Uploading Troves of Findable & Sharable Data_

If that is their "biggest re-imagination of all", then as you say there is no
hope, indeed.

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egfx
not a word about soundcloud, one of the fastest growing trends in 2014

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dbarlett
Original PDF:
[http://s3.amazonaws.com/kpcbweb/files/85/Internet_Trends_201...](http://s3.amazonaws.com/kpcbweb/files/85/Internet_Trends_2014_vFINAL_-_05_28_14-_PDF.pdf)

~~~
conorh
I recommend this url instead. It will redirect to the PDF file and will always
redirect to the most up to date version:

[http://www.kpcb.com/file/kpcb-internet-
trends-2014](http://www.kpcb.com/file/kpcb-internet-trends-2014)

~~~
dang
Alright, we'll change the url to that. Previous url:
[http://www.kpcb.com/internet-trends](http://www.kpcb.com/internet-trends).

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eevilspock
The ‘Made in USA’ slide (10) is nonsense. It shows a shift from non-USA OSes,
Symbian and Linux to 'Made in USA' OSes, Android, iOS and Windows phone. But
Android is built on Linux!

"USA controlled" may be a better way of putting it.

~~~
sp332
Android has a Linux kernel, but most of the OS is not what you'd find on a
normal Linux desktop distro. It was started by Android, Inc. in California and
is now developed almost entirely by Google.

~~~
eevilspock
HN is going downhill because more and more users down-vote comments not
because they are fallacious or illogical, but because don't like them.

sp332's comment is fair, as far as I know, but so is mine. _Android is a Linux
distribution according to the Linux Foundation, Google 's open-source chief
Chris DiBona, and several journalists._[1] "We assess the initial effort
needed to adapt the Linux kernel into Android and found that 99% of the
function-alities of Linux kernel 2.6 were reused into Android, and only 0.7%
of the reused files were modified to implement the requirements of
Android."[2]

I said the slide is "nonsense" because it is inconsistent in how it counts
Linux-based OSes.

[1] Wikipedia.
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Android_(operating_system)](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Android_\(operating_system\))

[2] Adapting Linux for Mobile Platforms: An Empirical Study of Android.
[http://swat.polymtl.ca/~foutsekh/docs/era-khomh-foutse-
adapt...](http://swat.polymtl.ca/~foutsekh/docs/era-khomh-foutse-adapting-
linux.pdf)

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allard
It's a nit perhaps but being as this is technical stuff I'd prefer the
standard SI prefixes rather than MM and the like used in some beancounting.

