Ask HN: What happens to society if we run out of oil? - taw55
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diafygi
We won't. Over 80% of oil we pull out of the ground is burned for energy, and
we are switching to alternatives at a rate that should have us fully
transitioned before we run out.

And thank god, too. We can only pull up a quarter of our proven reserves
before hitting 2 degrees warming (the Paris agreement). We hit 3 degrees
warming (where the Pentagon says wars start over food) when we pull up a third
of proven reserves.

I work in cleantech, and people used to wonder if oil would die at a high
price (due to lack of supply) or low price (due to low demand). Nowadays
everyone knows it will die at a low price. Also, here's my favorite climate
change joke, "They say we won't act until it's too late...Luckily, it's too
late!"

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_bubble](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_bubble)

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badrabbit
One thing people often forget when talking about petroleum is plastics and
many other uses that have nothing to do with converting petrol into energy.

Is there a raw material that can be used to substitute for petrol to make
plastics or is there an alternate to plastics for mass production and other
uses?

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muzani
I think we've developed many plastics alternatives, but they aren't in use
because of high prices. I hear a lot about things like sugar for plastic bags
and jellyfish for tampons and diapers.

When we do start running out of oil, the prices for this should rise quite a
bit, making research into the alternative much more likely.

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twobyfour
Tampons are made from cotton, not plastic. Maybe you're talking about the
applicators (which are also sometimes made of cardboard instead of plastic)?
Or maybe you're talking about menstrual pads, which - like diapers - have a
plastic lining to protect against leaks.

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zhte415
To clarify, muzani mentioned jellyfish for tampons and sugar for plastics.

Not plastic for tampons.

~~~
twobyfour
Ah, I see.

Is cotton production significantly affected by oil shortages? I thought cotton
was an issue mostly because farming it is water-intensive and too much of it
is produced in dry regions.

~~~
zhte415
>Is cotton production significantly affected by oil shortages?

I have no idea. I was just correcting your incorrect comprehension of the
message you replied to.

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twobyfour
A lot of things become much more expensive (likely gradually as supplies
dwindle).

Electricity, until petroleum-burning plants are replaced with nuclear or
renewable alternatives.

Travel and shipping, while we come up with alternative ways to fuel jets and
ocean liners, and replace our car and truck fleets with electric ones. This
cost trickles down to any goods not manufactured locally with locally-sourced
materials.

Food, until we come up with alternatives to petroleum-derived fertilizers and
retrofit our farm machinery to use electric motors.

Electric motors and batteries and the raw materials needed for the batteries,
as demand for them rises.

Plastics (made from petroleum derivatives).

Food again, as some crops are diverted into use as combustion fuel or to
produce plastics.

Some of this is already happening to a limited degree as we exhaust the least
expensive sources of petroleum.

If the process were to accelerate - and especially if it were to outpace our
capacity to substitute non-petroleum-dependent tooling and processes for
petroleum-dependent ones - rising prices (especially of food) would presumably
lead to social unrest and possibly even instability.

~~~
woodandsteel
>Electricity, until petroleum-burning plants are replaced with nuclear or
renewable alternatives.

Except for home generators and the like, no one uses oil for electricity
generation. Coal and natural gas are used, since they are much cheaper.

~~~
adventured
Saudi Arabia as an oddity gets 2/3 of its electricity from oil power plants
(the rest from natural gas and steam).

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pjdemers
There is a quote from an OPEC meeting decades ago: The stone age didn't end
because the world ran out of stones; the oil age will end long before the
world runs out of oil.
[http://www.economist.com/node/2155717](http://www.economist.com/node/2155717)

~~~
jabl
And the implied corollary: Don't you worry your pretty little heads about
climate change, fossil fuel pollution, or your societies being dangerously
dependent on a volatile part of the world with autocratic leaders with a
medieval mindset. Mankind will always invent its way out of whatever problem
it finds itself in. In the mean time, fill up your tank, enjoy life and stop
worrying!

~~~
nostrademons
It's not really implied, at least in the article:

"The best way to curb the demand for oil and promote innovation in oil
alternatives is to tell the world's energy markets that the “externalities” of
oil consumption—security considerations and environmental issues alike—really
will influence policy from now on. And the way to do that is to impose a
gradually rising gasoline tax."

Rather, the article assumes that people _will_ worry their pretty little heads
about climate change, fossil fuel pollution, or their societies being
dangerously dependent on a volatile part of the world, and that will provide
the political incentive to enact taxes that nudge the market to renewables.
Or, if the political spark doesn't occur, the rising cost & instability of
extracting that oil will provide the market incentive needed to switch over.

We already _have_ invented our way out of this problem - solar, wind, hydro,
geothermal, batteries, and electric motors exist already, as do fuel cells &
electrolysis at a somewhat higher price point. It's just that those
technologies are only recently competitive economically with fossil fuels.
Raise the price of oil and suddenly there's no reason to use oil anymore.

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oil7abibi
I’m an exploration engineer at Saudi Armaco. It will be a long long time
(hundreds of years) before we run out of oil; and each year we discover new
kinds of crude reservoirs.

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xaedes
Most reservoirs are on land under earth, right?

Is oil from the ocean floor a big thing in the future?

~~~
adventured
Nearly 1/3 of global oil supply is from offshore.

[https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=28492](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=28492)

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sunstone
First society will quickly transition to electric transportation. Second,
society will start synthesizing the organic feedstock it needs for making
plastic products.

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mythrwy
We'll use other hydrocarbons assuming we haven't mostly (hopefully)
transitioned off of hydrocarbons by then. Coal (which can be liquefied),
natural gas, there is a lot of energy left in the ground.

But the dirtiness of burning hydrocarbons has become well recognized so it
looks like we won't get to that point at all.

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graycat
Oil? Can make essentially oil from coal, water, and electric power. We can get
electric power from nukes, water from the oceans, and here in the US we've got
lots of coal. E.g., last I heard, a major fraction of the state of Utah has a
layer of coal about 30 feet thick.

~~~
twobyfour
Pretty sure you need fresh water rather than salt water for that. And
desalination is an energy-expensive process.

~~~
graycat
Agree.

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muzani
Elon Musk's group of companies are look for complete solutions to running
society without oil, mainly because they can't take oil to other planets.
Everything from transportation to power generation and storage.

So if we do run out of oil, Musk would probably achieve world domination.

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rurban
Him or Bezos. Looks more like Bezos currently.

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matt_the_bass
One less topic to argue about at holiday dinners.

