
COVID19: U.S. Officials Warn Americans to Brace for Likely Outbreak - kharms
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/25/world/asia/coronavirus-news.html
======
erentz
It's been a little bit frustrating watching the evolution of this. Even today
a lot of people are very unaware of whats coming and the preparations, at
least from what we can see on the outside, are woefully inadequate in the US
and other countries.

Back on Feb 10th the CDC had done 398 tests, it's now Feb 25th, 15 days later
and they've only done 426 tests. The surveillance testing that was meant to be
set up totally failed to work and still hasn't started.

The virus is 3+ generations on in Italy where it's gone from no cases to 322
cases and 11 deaths in a few days, and now cases are showing up in neighboring
countries. Expect a similar kind of surprise "outbreak" to appear here in the
US once we eventually get testing capabilities up to speed.

Probably the biggest disappointment has been the deliberate and dangerous
misinformation that was spread online and on the news saying the flu was more
dangerous. Most people I've spoken to have been under this false belief.

~~~
stolenmerch
I'm sorry, I don't at all follow your last sentence. The flu IS more
dangerous. Upwards of 45 million people get the flu every single year,
hundreds of thousands of those are hospitalized, and tens of thousands of
those are killed by Influenza. I'm not at all seeing the "deliberate and
dangerous misinformation."

~~~
erentz
My last sentence is referring to exactly what you're saying, your statement is
dangerous and irresponsible because it is designed to make people think SARS-
CoV-2 is less dangerous than regular seasonal flu. Comparing annual deaths
from an established virus to the current deaths from an emerging virus is on
the face of it absurd. You need to compare mortality rates, the rate of
spread, and projected infections. You can come back and compare total deaths
in two years after it has become endemic everywhere like the flu already is.

If I gave you the choice tomorrow of being infected with this seasons flu or
the coronavirus, which would you pick? Hopefully you're smart enough to
understand the difference between a 0.1% mortality rate and a 2% mortality
rate.

Leading people to believe the flu is more dangerous has slowed (and is still
slowing) the response, reducing preparedness, increasing the spread, and as
such will have a part to play in loss of life from this virus.

~~~
stolenmerch
No, the flu is still more dangerous. We're not talking about whether I have
the choice of being infected with "this year's strain" or Covid-19. We're
talking about risk assessment and realistic chances of catching them. The
mortality rate of covid-19 outside Wuhan is 0.7% [1]. In the U.S. it's zero so
far. I have a MUCH higher chance of getting influenza and dying where I and
most people live. This could change and I certainly reserve the right to
modify my preparedness and anxiety appropriately.

Alarmism and panic do far more harm in situations like this than the actual
virus itself.

[1][https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-
update-79339-c...](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-
update-79339-cases-2169-deaths-clusters-emerge-in-iran-and-italy-2020-02-24)

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isusmelj
We just got the first confirmed case in Switzerland today:
[https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-
diseas...](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-
disease/coronavirus-news-uk-italy-china-south-korea-pandemic/)

~~~
crmrc114
Since the main GIS tool died I was using to monitor this outbreak I have been
using
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22409640](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22409640)

~~~
phasecode
This one still seems to be working:

[https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

