
Ask HN: How to invest in the time of Covid-19? - throwCovMarket
I&#x27;m a salaried person living in France. I have never owned stock. Every Euro I have in my bank account comes from salary. And to be honest I have only a very basic understanding of the market.<p>I have been reading that stocks have been going down massively in the past 48 hours, and I was wondering how one would invest some saved up money? If I buy a stock that is now 16$ but was 26$ a few days ago, will it go back to that price and i can make a small profit ?<p>I&#x27;m not talking about putting a huge amount of money, just a few thousands Euros i can spare.
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schoen
> If I buy a stock that is now 16$ but was 26$ a few days ago, will it go back
> to that price and i can make a small profit ?

Most people think _probably_ , since the stock markets have always recovered
after previous crises. But it might potentially take weeks, months, or years
(if the impact of the pandemic and other troubles causes an ongoing weakness
in the economy). There's also a risk that particular companies or industries
will be so severely affected that they never fully recover; for example,
individual companies could go bankrupt or could be acquired at a lower
valuation than their peak value.

Here in California, which currently has a less disruptive COVID-19 outbreak
(and less disruptive responses to it) than much of Europe, there have already
been reports of some small businesses failing. Someone who invested in those
businesses on the assumption they would later recover could have lost the
whole investment. Larger businesses can fail, too, though usually on a longer
time scale. For example, it's possible that some travel-related companies that
are especially impacted by reduced travel will have to sell off their assets
and operations to other companies, maybe at a comparatively low value.

The point of this is that, in general, stock markets as a whole, and economic
sectors as a whole, have always recovered from crises and disasters --
potentially providing profit on some timescale to people who invested during a
crash -- but that this may sometimes take a very long time¹ and is definitely
not guaranteed for any individual company. Therefore there is never an
opportunity to invest in stocks with absolutely no risk, although a financial
advisor may be able to help you estimate and manage your risk.

Even if a particular community is convinced that a certain stock or the market
as a whole will _probably_ move in a certain direction, it's never a
guarantee. Your gamble may have a positive expected value, but that doesn't
disqualify it from being a gamble.

¹ If you get really unlucky, there could be other economic disruptions that
interrupt the recovery (other disease outbreaks, natural disasters, political
instability, wars, effects of climate change?) and so the economy may not
recover on the timescale that you expected it would.

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60secs
Market cycles for recessions/depressions have sudden drops and then long
bleeds. We're in falling knife territory. Wait for fundamental good news and
then wait for the bounce with confirmation (retest with higher low). For the
short term, cash is king, unless you are able to short.

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troydavis
> will it go back to that price and i can make a small profit ?

No one has any idea, here or anywhere. However, what you’re describing isn’t
investing, it’s a lotto. Read some posts about why you aren’t going to be able
to time the market (which is what you’re asking about doing):
[https://www.google.com/search?q=stop+trying+to+time+the+mark...](https://www.google.com/search?q=stop+trying+to+time+the+market)

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tobltobs
> will it go back

In theory this might be true. But with the current corporate debt bubble not
all will survive this recession.

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allovernow
The way things are going now, it looks like we're heading into global
recession or possibly depression territory.

The combination of the current global economy and this sudden crash brought
about by a global pandemic is unprecedented. We are in uncharted territory. It
all depends on how much faith you have in world leaders - this virus is
shaking up geopolitics and markets may not bounce back from this for _years_ ,
though that's quite a pessimistic take.

Personally I feel like a lot of the world has been propped up on a house of
cards and this virus is about to expose a lot of it, which means hard times
are coming.

So tl;dr if you have faith in world leaders, wait another week or two because
the market is probably going to crash even harder when the fed pumps $1.5T
into the market (we've shut down trade with Europe and China is still not back
online so this can only lead to a dead cat bounce) and then if you have
disposable income buy up some bargain stocks. But the most important advice
I'd give you is to _only spend what you are prepared to lose_. Your general
impression is correct - if a stock is significantly lower now than it was two
months ago, it's technically a bargain if you buy and _hold until this is
over_.

Now, that said, if we miraculously find a cure or vaccine in the next month or
so, I imagine markets will skyrocket overnight. And given that this is
probably the most attention a disease has ever been given in history, it's not
impossible.

