
Why the iPad Will Change Everything - mjfern
http://www.newsweek.com/id/235565
======
jnoller
I think this is actually a fairly even-handed look at the potential (both
positive and negative) of the iPad. Even if the iPad is simply the spark that
kicks off the touch-tablet craze (iphone to nexus one anyone?) - it's still a
significant game-changer.

Will it displace desktops and laptops? Not for people who use them to get work
done. Anyone writing a book probably won't use an iPad - nor will someone
writing software, or doing accounting/etc. It will, however, one day replace
the things "most" people use computers for - consuming media, articles,
videos, writing short blogs, etc.

At it's heart - it's a consumption device with some capabilities of creating.
The content creation capabilities will simply get stronger with time (UX
mockup tools, Keynote/presentation tools, sketching applications, etc). As the
tablet/touch-interface market expands and more companies get in the game,
things will only get better. More tablets will come, more 3rd party hardware
addons will come - creators will be enabled.

Do I wish it ran OSX-Full, instead of iPhone OS? Yes, but while I _wish_ that,
I also see the fact that using an OS _designed_ for a touch-based system is
superior than a normal OS with touch-based interactivity "bolted on".

Anyone doubting how intuitive and natural a touch-based system is to work with
should try handing an iPhone to a two year old. They can figure it out much
more quickly than a mouse and keyboard. My poor daughter (my guinea pig) can
pick up my iphone, switch screens, find and start her game(s) in seconds.
She's still flummoxed by my laptop/touchpad and the little mouse icon on the
screen.

~~~
replicatorblog
"Even if the iPad is simply the spark that kicks off the touch-tablet craze
(iphone to nexus one anyone?) - it's still a significant game-changer."

Great point. I disagree about the iPad not being good for writing books. Won't
Incase or Mophie come up with a $100 keyboard/case that turns this into a
laptop? I think the app ecosystem will be greatly augmented by a hardware eco-
system. I'm bullish on the platform.

~~~
jnoller
Later in that comment I pointed that out - content creators will be enabled by
third-party add ons, and other companies building "competitors" which further
enable creation. I don't think that there is anything _blocking_ creation on
it - just that that's not the short-term aim.

~~~
joe_the_user
Nothing is blocking creation on the iPad except maybe Apple as the arbitrary
gatekeeper of the App Store.

~~~
jnoller
And in that; nothing is blocking apps aimed at creators from the app store.
Day one will see a new version of Pages and Keynote and at least one
artist/painter/sketching application.

The applications will make or break the device ultimately.

------
megaman821
Apple does have a history of entering markets ripe for explosion and then
facilitating that explosion. It seems a bit different this time. In the past
it seems the Apple was answering consumers' demands rather than publishers'
demands. Portable music sold one at a time came to the delight of consumers
and the detriment of the music industry. The iPhone's internet connected apps
encourage using more and more bandwidth is to the detriment of cell phone
carriers. Consumers outside of tech geeks and Apple fans seem to care less
about tablets. It is the publishers who pine for a new platform to sell the
wares on that seem to be the most vocal about how revolutionary the iPad is.
Even friends that have pre-ordered it do not exactly know what they will be
doing with it yet, only that the iPad is somehow revolutionary. Time will tell
if the iPad will be a success but I personally hope a more open platform will
win out.

~~~
swombat
There's "no demand" for a simple, easy to use tablet-sized internet/app device
that doesn't crash, just like there was "no demand" for a simple, easy to use,
pocket-sized music device 10 years ago.

There's plenty of demand for it. Most people just don't know they want one
yet. As I argued in my article after the iPad launch, people who don't
actually want a computer will be buying this in droves (instead of wasting
money on ugly, powerless netbooks - which are priced in the same region!).

~~~
megaman821
There was demand for a pocket-sized music device over 20 years ago. The Sony
Walkman was a success which was followed by the proprietary Sony MiniDisc
format which flopped. Then iRiver and Phillips had crappy mp3 players. The
iPod was the first portable music player since the Walkman that was a success.

I am not prescient, the iPad may be a huge success, but there currently not a
large market for tablets. There were large markets for portable music players
and smart phones when Apple entered those fields.

------
bmalicoat
Does anyone else find it weird and a little sad that Woz has to pre-order one
(or three) like a normal person?

Edit: To clarify, I mean sad that they don't just send him some. Since, you
know, he helped start the company and everything.

~~~
jkincaid
Pretty sure they'd be happy to send him ten if he wanted them. Sounds like
he's in it for the fun of the launch.

------
stcredzero
_I want one. ... It has a nice 9.7-inch screen, weighs only one and a half
pounds, and can play movies for 10 hours on a single battery charge. Right
away I could see how I would use it. I'd keep it in the living room to check
e-mail and browse the Web. I'd take it to the kitchen and read The New York
Times while I eat breakfast. I'd bring it with me on a plane to watch movies
and read books._

I also pre-ordered, but I will note that I do all of the above with my rather
old tc1100 tablet. (A p4 just barely squeaks by with video.) Even now, I'm
posting to HN from bed using the phenomenal Windows XP Tablet handwriting
recognition.

The iPad will change everything not because it's new. It will change
everything because of its execution.

~~~
jnoller
Precisely. The point people need to realize is that having a well-executed,
easy-to-use touch-based interface _is the killer feature_ of the iPad. That
"shiny user interface" _is the point_ of it.

------
faramarz
_as long as you're willing to do it the Steve Jobs way._

~~~
krav
Enough are - look at Apple's market cap.

------
mojuba
Excuse my ignorance and non-appleness for this simple, non-technical,
potentially stupid question:

While my 13" MacBook Pro rests on my knees, I can smoke with one hand, hold my
coffee in the other hand, and read this article at the same time. I started it
in the kitchen and finished in the bedroom.

How is iPad going to make my life better? Will I be able to do 3 things at a
time with it? I suspect one hand will always be busy holding the thing. It
will get tired, let alone that I won't be able to smoke and have my coffee and
read an article (and always have the UNIX shell at hand) at the same time.

This seems like an iPad killer in the bad sense to me. I'm sorry.

~~~
superjared
Maybe you should quit smoking.

Seriously though, the iPad isn't made for the likes of us on Hacker News
(though I still kinda want one). It's for people like my father who don't
really give a damn what a computer is as long as it's easy to use.

~~~
mojuba
He probably should care that his arm is going to get tired holding his iPad
for more than 15-20 minutes. Seriously, I'm failing to picture any long-time
user of this device being really, really happy with it.

~~~
stcredzero
I'm jazzed about my Windows slate at 3 pounds, and yes, I can browse and post
on HN all day with it, even from bed. You don't have to hold it up to use it
in any context you can use a hardcover book.

My iPad will weigh half as much and won't require a stylus.

------
jkincaid
I think that the iPad and similar devices down the road really could change
everything as far as print and multimedia consumption is concerned. But it's
going to take a long time (years, perhaps) until these publishers are
producing content that's compelling enough that people will actually buy it as
opposed to finding similar stuff for free on the web.

My hunch is that these first attempts by magazines will look cool but feel
_really_ gimmicky, to the point that they're a bit of a joke. Think cheesy
quizzes and games and video content that's been available on the web for weeks
(remember, these digital magazines will take time to produce). I wrote about
this topic a bit more back in January if you're interested:
[http://techcrunch.com/2010/01/26/apple-tablet-book-
revolutio...](http://techcrunch.com/2010/01/26/apple-tablet-book-revolution/)

~~~
mgcross
And I'm sure the magazines will be littered with canvas tag-based banner ads
that would be much more intrusive than a full page print ad. No ad-blocker
plugins on an iPad.

------
viraptor
(Ignoring the article itself here) The top picture reminded me of this
ok/cancel comic strip: <http://okcancel.com/comic/3.html>

I know it's not the environment where you'd normally use the device, but still
- how are you even supposed to hold it?

------
marze
The killer app on the iPad is DRM. Without it, there would be no for-purchase
TV shows, movies, books, or magazines as it would be impossible to license the
content.

The closed and managed system is not an option for Apple, it is essential to
the success of the product.

~~~
lurkinggrue
One reason I would avoid those products.

It may be elegant but I would rather a more open device even at the cost of
some "Ease of use."

------
mikecane
Just three words needed: One million sold.
[http://ipadtest.wordpress.com/2010/03/27/one-million-
ipads-s...](http://ipadtest.wordpress.com/2010/03/27/one-million-ipads-sold/)

------
papachito
This article should be renamed:

"Why we wish the iPad will change everything for us publishers".

~~~
lotharbot
Right. Much of what the article said the iPad would "transform", I already do
on my PC and lots of others do on their laptops or tablets -- things like
watching TV, for example. The only thing the iPad does is puts it in a small,
portable shell with a slick interface that channels revenue to Apple.

There's a market for that. But I don't see it as being "transformational" in
any significant way.

~~~
stcredzero
_There's a market for that. But I don't see it as being "transformational" in
any significant way._

The combination of features, form factor, and App Store, will put all of the
above within reach with practically _no requirement_ for being tech savvy.
That's "transformational". I can do everything the iPad will do with my 4 year
old tablet. But only the truly tech savvy would tinker with it as much as I
have to get it to that point, and it's still not as slick as the iPad appears
to be. I suspect my 71 year old Dad will be able to pull his out of the box,
turn it on, and have an even slicker experience.

Lots of non tech-savvy folks with money will want one.

