
How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond - bookofjoe
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02278-5
======
nikhizzle
I find it extremely puzzling to counterpose the predictions of disease
experts, politicians and economists with regard to COVID.

Disease experts are very cautiously optimistic over a period of years.
Economists are in sharp disagreement whether we will see a quick or multi-year
recovery, with a few dissenters pointing out the the economic effects could
last decades. And politicians seem to have unbridled optimism, which to an
outsider can only be explained by access to a persistent vault of champagne.

~~~
bryanrasmussen
One of the functions of politicians in recent decades seems to be being public
cheerleaders - Churchill in modern guise would have said something like "I
have nothing to offer you but some pretty good results that will be quite
enjoyable"

~~~
phenkdo
> One of the functions of politicians in recent decades seems to be being
> public cheerleaders

It's very easy to blame the politicians, the average American has led a
largely comfortable, coddled life and is unprepared to hear anything negative.
Politicians are also sales-persons and they tell the public what it wants to
hear.

~~~
atomi
> ...they tell the public what it wants to hear

That's because it's a sure fire way to get elected in a democracy.

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throwmeaway_pls
Neverending lockdowns belong in the dustbin of history besides eugenics and
nonconsensual human experimentation. The virus is endemic. The fact that
people don’t really understand that is a leadership failure. Let’s all move
on.

~~~
bryanlarsen
According to he article, modelling shows that lockdowns are unnecessary if
mask and hand washing compliance is > 70% and contact tracing effectiveness is
> 80%.

~~~
solidasparagus
The world is not going to wear masks forever. If we haven't solved the problem
in the next two years people are just going to accept Coronavirus as a normal
risk in life like car accidents, cancer and heart disease. Also, permanent
contact tracing sounds like a real dystopia - and I can't imagine it holding
up long-term in US courts.

~~~
thinkingemote
One thing that could be permanent is the world wearing masks when they have
cold symptoms. Like in Asian countries. The way to do that would be via social
pressure (like in Asian countries) than legal measures.

~~~
me_me_me
> The way to do that would be via social pressure (like in Asian countries)

Except that its not really a pressure, but a social contract.

'I am sick so the least i can do is wear a mask while outside to protect
others. So others do the same.'

Win-win.

~~~
threatofrain
One of the mechanisms of social contracts is pressure. Is this a radical idea?
A few individuals always have a different perspective on any deal, and the
majority will need a way to enforce the look and feel of community lifestyle.

Such as an agreement for racial harmony.

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tmaly
I hope they come up with a solution soon.

I was in the grocery store line yesterday. A lady in her late 50s behind me
said “how long is this going to take?”

I thought she was asking about the line, so I said “maybe 2 minutes”

She responded “No, I meant the virus”

I told her “I have no idea, I hope it goes away soon”

The social distancing is having a negative effect on people psychology in my
opinion.

Something good that can come out of this is a better way to develop vaccines
and testing technology.

~~~
yread
Lots of good things: much lower rates of influenza and other respiratory
infections; families staying close together; work from home becoming the norm
helping the environment; less money and resources wasted on organized sports
and other entertainment; me not having to have in-person meetings with my
annoying project manager; lots of motivation for learning new stuff about
biology/immune systems/virology. Of course most of these also have downsides.
But the upsides are there.

~~~
AnIdiotOnTheNet
> work from home becoming the norm

It isn't though. It might seem that way to people in cushy software
development positions in the valley, but I don't believe that is happening
very many other places.

~~~
yread
From my experience it is. Here in the Netherlands, just in the last few weeks
I spoke with accountants, auditors, lawyers, scientists, sales people, even
doctors (pathologists) and they all worked from home. I'm not saying that
everyone works from home but that it became more prevalent, it's very hard to
argue the opposite

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helen___keller
The article mentions outcomes based on duration of lasting immunity to the
virus, in particular the "annual winter outbreaks" pattern holds if immunity
lasts less than 40 weeks.

This should be something we can determine in the near future right? If the
outbreak started in China in mid or late december, then early infectees of the
virus should already be around week 35 or so.

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EdwinLarkin
I find it puzzling that some people are ok with this virus becoming endemic.

You might be asymptomatic now but what about 15 years from now on?

I dont think we should allow more viruses to become endemic and as widespread
as flu or cold.

Imagine a world where it's highly probable that you will catch a virus that
will make your life miserable even for a short period of time.

I think just a mere existence of flu or cold was a mistake. We should have
eradicated those years ago.

~~~
fuhrysteve
> I think just a mere existence of flu or cold was a mistake. We should have
> eradicated those years ago.

It's not clear to me how eradicating these would have ever been possible in
the past, or will be in the foreseeable future. The flu has (probably) been
around since at least 6000 BC, and numerous strains can be spread by birds &
many other species.

~~~
EdwinLarkin
I thought this is more or less a logistical nightmare. We cant create and
distribute that many vaccines for the N number of strains.

It would be possible but we just never really tried.

~~~
majewsky
No, a significant part of it is that immunity is temporary. The article
describes a particular cold virus where immunity lasts about 40 weeks, hence
it resurges every winter.

