
Permafrost ‘bubbles’ are leaking methane 200 times above the norm - FuNe
http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/casestudy/news/n0681-now-the-proof-permafrost-bubbles-are-leaking-methane-200-times-above-the-norm/
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harwoodleon
Aside from the shock value of this, this underlines that there are feedback
systems that we have kicked in. I think the science is not clear, we are still
learning about the effects. Climate sceptics are right in a perverse way, we
have no idea really what we have done.

~~~
_Codemonkeyism
What feedback system would that be? Wouldn't methane accelerate warming? From
my limited knowledge of English semantics feedback - like in feedback loop -
would mean some controlling function?

~~~
andyjohnson0
I'm fairly sure that harwoodleon is referring to _positive_ feedback.

Negative feedback acts to oppose a change (think heating system temperature
control). Positive feedback acts to amplify a change, and can result in
runaway changes [1].

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_feedback#Examples_and...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_feedback#Examples_and_applications)

~~~
_Codemonkeyism
Thanks!

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haversine02
It's a shame that the whole matter of global warming has been politicized and
muddied so much by special interests that average person simply doesn't care
anymore. That's why it's especially weird to see something like this published
in Daily Mail. The positive feedback loop is definitely happening though, but
the magnitude and extents of it could still vary.

To be honest, I don't believe we can stop this, not with the current
population size and the current economic model.

~~~
sitkack
The best thing for Earth and possibly the thing for homo sapiens is a nuclear
winter. Hillary will just continue the drone war and statist business as
usual. Trump on the other hand, total wild-card, and possibly unwitting
instigator of nuclear war. The long term ecological choice is Trump.

~~~
mark-r
You need to read Scott Adams' blog, it really is an eye-opener on Trump.
(Scott Adams being the creator of the Dilbert cartoon). Start here:
[http://blog.dilbert.com/post/149983115751/why-trump-
doesnt-s...](http://blog.dilbert.com/post/149983115751/why-trump-doesnt-scare-
me)

~~~
sitkack
Scott Adams speaking through Ratbert is a sage, Scott Adams speaking with his
own voice, not so much.

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FrozenVoid
Its seriously bad, and we still argue about electric cars and profitability of
solar power: Methane is powerful enough to create rapid warming feedback loop
that cannot be stopped by current means(unless the world economies are changed
overnight), there is a model that shows +6C warming effects if methane reaches
1000ppm(2000 Gt release):
[http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00533....](http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00533.1)
Notice the predictions of methane release from 2013 are on track:
[https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-
insight/2013/a...](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-
insight/2013/aug/05/7-facts-need-to-know-arctic-methane-time-bomb)

~~~
vixen99
1000ppm methane would be a big problem. Meanwhile methane concentration (2015
figure) is 2.85 ppm. Please correct if you think this is way out.

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spiderfarmer
Serious question: Is there any research in how far will nature be able to
adapt? For example, if the permafrost melts, wouldn't that enable growth of
CO2 absorbing plants in those areas?

I found this article that says the predicted CO2 levels will increase plant
growth: [http://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/effects-
of-...](http://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/effects-of-rising-
atmospheric-concentrations-of-carbon-13254108)

~~~
api
We don't know what runaway climate change will look like. The system is
chaotic with lots of feedback loops. Stuff will happen, some of it counter-
intuitive. It may or may not be okay in the end.

I like Elon's take: yeah, it might not be that bad, but is it really smart to
do an uncontrolled experiment on your own biosphere and "see what happens?"

I also like George Carlin's: "Stop talking about saving the Earth! The Earth
is four billion years old. The Earth will be fine. We're fucked."

Carlin's comment is actually quite wise. Life will adapt, but adaptation is a
painful evolutionary process that often involves a lot of death. Concern over
things like climate change is entirely self-interested. We don't want to
unleash a Darwinian "adaptive" process at the global scale upon ourselves.

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pmyjavec
Those photos really look like something out of a science movie, hard to
believe we've let it get to this point.

~~~
codecamper
oh. it's going to get a whole lot worse. you can count on it.

I think it's pretty much 100% that we will see geoengineering attempts within
our lifetimes, maybe even within the next 20 years. Probably dust injected
into the atmosphere.

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bjz_
Yale Climate Connections on the melting permafrost in 2013:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLCgybStZ4g](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLCgybStZ4g)
\- sad to see we have been moving so slowly in the three years since I watched
it.

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TheSpiceIsLife
Somebody light a match! Seriously, why don't they burn it?

~~~
pdkl95
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FM0hczFNDZI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FM0hczFNDZI)

~~~
TheSpiceIsLife
Yep, that's the video I had in mind.

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csours
I didn't read the article closely enough, but I'd be interested to see if this
methane is released from a stored source or if it is from rotting vegetation.

Much of the permafrost area is a frozen swamp; when it thaws, the swamp plants
rot.

In other words, this may be a one-time outgassing of a limited amount of
vegetable material, at least in this case. We still have the clathrate gun to
worry about.

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vixen99
Elsewhere in the arctic: Geophysical Letters 22 JUN 2016:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069292/pdf reports "No signiﬁcant
increase in long-term CH4 emissions on North Slope of Alaska despite
signiﬁcant increase in air temperature"

------
patrickmn
Related interview with Natalia Shakhova from the International Arctic Research
Center: [https://youtu.be/kx1Jxk6kjbQ?t=9](https://youtu.be/kx1Jxk6kjbQ?t=9)

Very ominous.

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dharma1
I have wondered if we couldn't engineer solutions to capture the methane.
Locating the leaks should be straightforward with spectral satellite imaging

~~~
dvh
It's everywhere, dead leafs under the tree that used to be frozen now are
being composted by bacteria producing methane, you would have to cover ground
with plastic foil.

~~~
phkahler
>> dead leafs under the tree that used to be frozen now are being composted by
bacteria producing methane

This is THE thing people overlook. There used to be trees there! There used to
be lots of vegetation, that's why there's so much carbon trapped in the
permafrost in the first place. We're not releasing something bad, we're
returning the earth to a better equilibrium. Imagine if the Siberian tundra
were replaced with forests and farms. Imagine if we avoid the next glaciation
- which is coming if we do as the climate alarmists want, yet there is
evidence that we can't prevent it even if we try.

~~~
mikeash
Imagine if the Siberian tundra were replaced with forests and farms, and
current forests and farms were replaced with desert.

You can't just look at the potential upside, assume it will be huge, and also
assume there aren't any negative effects that might outweigh it.

The argument that the Earth used to be warmer or cooler or whatever is
completely nonsensical. We're not worried about Earth, we're worried about
_people_ , and more specifically _civilization_. The fact that the tundra used
to be lush doesn't mean anything in that respect.

~~~
phkahler
Civilization could "just" relocate. As for desertification, see this TED talk:
[https://www.ted.com/talks/allan_savory_how_to_green_the_worl...](https://www.ted.com/talks/allan_savory_how_to_green_the_world_s_deserts_and_reverse_climate_change)

And remember, the alternative is still glaciation.

~~~
mikeash
Yeah, and "just" relocating ain't exactly trivial or foolproof.

The alternative is glaciation? If we have enough control over the climate to
make it a bunch warmer, surely we have enough control (should we choose to
exercise it) to keep it in the middle.

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tominous
The headline is incredibly misleading and looks like a misinterpretation by
the Daily Mail (not known for their quality journalism in the first place).

The "200" figure refers to the concentration of methane in the released gas
compared to the atmosphere, not the total amount released in the Arctic
compared to usual.

Poor article.

EDIT: This HN post originally linked to a Daily Mail article with a bad
headline. The Siberian Times headline is still misleading but not quite so
egregiously wrong.

~~~
denzil_correa
> The headline is incredibly misleading and looks like a misinterpretation by
> the Daily Mail

Daily Mail could be one of the top list of websites that can be banned from
HN.

~~~
lawless123
They always have really good pictures though, if someone made a plugin that
overlaid the article with a good one while keeping the pictures it would be
great.

~~~
denzil_correa
Tabloids use more pictures per screen area over normal websites. I have no
particular problems with the usage of pictures btw.

A lot of times they also use screen shots from a video (for example - Youtube)
and write a text commentary to generate an article.

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phaemon
Original story is from the Siberian Times:
[http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/casestudy/news/n0681-now-
th...](http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/casestudy/news/n0681-now-the-proof-
permafrost-bubbles-are-leaking-methane-200-times-above-the-norm/)

(the Daily Mail? Seriously?)

~~~
biot

      > (the Daily Mail? Seriously?)
    

Reporting quality seems to be good with a lot of images. If the message is
good, why criticize the messenger?

~~~
mobiuscog
Because it's extremely rare for the reporting quality to be good with the
Daily Mail.

~~~
biot
I can agree with that assessment... they're typically fairly trashy. I've
submitted content from them before when it was an AP article (so the text was
identical on all sites that carried it) but they had additional relevant,
higher resolution images accompanying the text. Got unnecessary flak for it of
course.

