
Ask HN: Avoid moving to LA/SF due to earthquake risk? - semi-nontechncl
I&#x27;m considering moving back to LA after a one year hiatus. However, after the recent earthquakes in Mexico, I started researching the probability of a major earthquake striking the LA area and the predictions are not reassuring.<p>For Southern CA, here are the stats for the next 30 years:
Magnitude 6.7 - 97%
Magnitude 7.0 - 82%
Magnitude 7.5 - 37%
Magnitude 8.0 - 03%<p>For the SF region, here are the stats for the next 30 years:
Magnitude 6.7 - 93%
Magnitude 7.0 - 68%
Magnitude 7.5 - 15%
Magnitude 8.0 - 02%<p>For reference, the 1994 Northridge earthquake was magnitude 6.7. Also, the Fort Tejon earthquake in 1857 in SoCal was magnitude 7.9.<p>I work in the film industry, so LA is the ideal place for me to live, but I could probably find work in NYC. I&#x27;m leaning towards not returning to LA due to the earthquake risk, but I&#x27;m wondering if I&#x27;m being irrational. Any thoughts on how to weigh odds that involve life&#x2F;death?<p>Source: https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pubs.usgs.gov&#x2F;fs&#x2F;2008&#x2F;3027&#x2F;fs2008-3027.pdf
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_ao789
We're moving our business to Portugal in the new year, Lisbon has a great tech
scene.... there are other places for film other than LA, particularly without
natural disasters. I'm sure others will provide more measurable experience in
their comments to follow.

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Piskvorrr
Lisbon, hmmm...I do recall a 9.0 magnitude earthquake there literally altering
the course of history ;)
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1755_Lisbon_earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1755_Lisbon_earthquake)

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_ao789
haha, that was literally 262 years ago. Much less common than the frequency
California seems to have of these things.

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mch82
Have you looked at the chances of modern construction surviving these quakes?

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semi-nontechncl
This is a good point. Because the rents are so high in LA, I generally end up
living in older apartment complexes. But here's a cool resource for seeing
when buildings in LA were built
[http://cityhubla.github.io/LA_Building_Age/#12/34.0532/-118....](http://cityhubla.github.io/LA_Building_Age/#12/34.0532/-118.4518)

