
Ronda Rousey fights like a statistical outlier - zabramow
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/ronda-rousey-fights-like-an-outlier/
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bmelton
As someone who has trained in MMA extensively, "the greats" tend to be those
who embody this for long whiles in their careers before eventually (and
generally, inevitably) regressing to the mean.

Anderson Silva, Matt Hughes, BJ Penn are all common names to MMA devotees (or
at least were as recently as a few years ago) , and each of them share the
same trait -- they win when they aren't supposed to.

I've never been remotely as good as any of them (nor Ronda Rousey), but
eventually, when you defy the statistics for long enough, you become looked at
as a modern-day Superman. Anderson Silva, for example, ran a hugely long
undefeated streak in which he not only bested his opponents, but often
embarrassed them before suddenly falling off the mark twice, and to the same
opponent.

As a result, he has fallen from grace as the once "best pound for pound
fighter in the world" to almost average, depending on who you're talking to.
Regardless, his fight record[1] tells the story of a man who simply knows how
to win, except against Chris Weidman, and as such, is worth fearing, despite
being older than average and much, much better than average.

The point that I appear to be dancing around though, is that a guy on a
10-fight win streak seems invincible, while a guy on a 2-fight losing streak
seems positively wimpy by comparison. Looking at the fighter's record on the
whole is probably the best gauge of their talent, but as your statistical
record approaches the mean, so does the level of fear you might otherwise
instill, commensurately.

~~~
balls187
> As someone who has trained in MMA extensively, "the greats" tend to be those
> who embody this for long whiles in their careers before eventually (and
> generally, inevitably) regressing to the mean.

You can make the case that both age, and the sport evolves around them and
they regressed towards the mean.

Except for Anderson. I attribute his decline simply to no longer being
motivated to train hard. In many of his later fights, he would "play around"
and toy with fighters. With Weidman, that cost him a brutal knockout. The
psychological damage compounded with his next fight, which was immediate
rematch that ended up in brutally shattering his leg.

For BJ Penn, there were a lot of questions about his motivations, and by time
it seemed like he was properly motivated, the sport had passed him by. Despite
all that, he is one of the few fighters that have belts in multiple weight
classes, and beat Matt Hughes, and Gomi in their prime (you could argue he
beat the piss out of GSP in their first match, despite it being a loss). Full
Disclosure: BJ Penn is one of my favorite fighters of all time.

~~~
bmelton
BJ Penn is easily one of my favorites. I'm actually upset at the fact that
seemingly, the more motivation he found, the more likely he was to engage in a
stand-up battle, despite his obvious advantages on the ground.

Quite possibly there are factors that I'm not privy to (like age inhibiting
his flexibility or something), but I've never seen anybody as creative on the
ground as he was (though there are some modern fighters that are getting
there), and definitely not of his time, but yeah, for a long time, he rode the
coattails of his raw talent and didn't train as competitively as many of those
who ultimately passed him by.

Frank Mir is, in my opinion, his polar opposite (in too many ways to list).

~~~
mistermann
I actually think BJ and Frank are very similar in that their downfall was lack
of training.

In BJ's case, being generally in poor shape much of the time, but mainly not
focusing on his core talents and as you say, getting by on raw natural talent
until that was no longer the case. The part that makes me so sad about BJ is,
he was a once in a lifetime fighter, but there really aren't that many fights
of his that are worth rewatching many times, really wish he would have stayed
on top of his game for longer. I feel similarly about Nick Diaz - a _good_
Diaz fight (ie vs: Lawler, Zaromskis, Santos) and a _good_ BJ fight are just
wonderful to watch.

In Frank's case, he just always gases early, often by the end of the first
round. He's very talented but if you can't use that talent for much more than
3 rounds, you can't get too far.

~~~
bmelton
I don't think Mir has that much ambition at being a 5-round fighter any time
soon. Not that he probably couldn't do it if he set his sights on it, but I
think he's reached the golden years of his career and knows it. I don't expect
a Couture-style championship run, nor do I think he's particularly aiming at
one.

As for his conditioning, it is generally very rare to see a full heavyweight
with great conditioning. I can think of a handful, so it's not impossible,
obviously, but carrying that much weight, and having to lug all that arm-
weight around for each punch just seems arduous.

Nice reference to the Diaz/Lawler fight. That's literally one of my favorite
fights of all time, and catapulted Diaz into a totally different tier from
where I thought he was. Joe Rogan's announcing on that fight was also,
ironically, perfect.

~~~
mistermann
I'm not even asking for great cardio, just not atrocious! I hope Frank gets
some work commentating, he's very knowledgeable.

I love the Lawler fight, but to me the Zaromskis fight was Nick at his peak,
and the Santos fight showed his mastery of striking and finishing on the
ground.

Joe Rogan is always great, to me he is almost the perfect commentator, deep
knowledge of the sports, loves it with a passion, picks up on the smallest
things and communicates all this beautifully.

------
petegrif
It is really fascinating how many people take seriously the idea that Rousey
would be remotely competitive with ANY decently trained MMA fighter. She
wouldn't stand a chance. Period. End of story. Don't go there. This is nothing
to do with how skilled she is, how motivated she is, or her track record. She
is a fantastic highly trained mentally strong athlete. But she's not remotely
strong enough to fight a trained man. Could she kick my ass? Absolutely. Could
she kick your ass? Probably. But a trained guy? No! Emphatically not. With the
best will in the world there are very real differences between the sexes that
can't be glossed over. It may be great marketing to present her as someone who
could beat guys at MMA but it isn't real.

~~~
Strom
Can you provide any examples of trained women vs trained men fighting in a
martial arts competition? I haven't encountered such fights myself. If you
haven't either then I do wonder, what exactly do you base your opinion on so
strongly?

I find it plausible that males have some advantage due to larger bones &
muscles, but there's a long spectrum of skill between "decent" as you say, and
what it takes to be a UFC champion. I don't think the extra muscle & bone mass
will do much if you're unable to defend the elite level judo throws.

~~~
oh_sigh
Has rousey ever used a judo throw in a match? The #1 time judo throws are used
is when another person is trying to judo throw you(that is, in a judo
competition)

~~~
bmelton
As has already been mentioned, yes, she's used judo throws extensively. Her
judo is exceptional. Her mother was AnnMaria De Mars[1], the first American to
win the World Judo Championships.

Beyond that, Rousey herself won the bronze medal in the 2008 Summer Olympics
in judo.[2]

[1] -
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AnnMaria_De_Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AnnMaria_De_Mars)

[2] -
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judo_at_the_2008_Summer_Olympi...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judo_at_the_2008_Summer_Olympics_%E2%80%93_Women%27s_70_kg#Medalists)

~~~
protomyth
Her mother is also pretty damn smart, and I would expect the daughter
inherited the same intelligence. That is a pretty nasty combination of brawn
and brains.

------
pokstad
Rousey is also the daughter of an outlier. Her mom was the first female US
Judo champion.

~~~
protomyth
Her mother has also has earned a PhD.

~~~
peteretep
So? Being a judo champion is a considerably bigger achievement than staying in
school a few more years.

~~~
engi_nerd
If getting a PhD were just a function of staying in school, a lot more people
would have PhDs.

------
Splendor
She's undoubtedly an outlier but I think that has more to do with the lack of
parity in women's MMA. Men's MMA has had decades to reach it's current level
of competition so it seems unfair to plot the performance of Ronda against all
of MMA.

------
sleazebreeze
Isn't this basically the plot of Million Dollar Baby or Maximus's first fights
in Gladiator? The fighter in both movies wins all their fights very quickly.
The difference is that in Gladiator, he is told to slow down and give the
crowd a spectacle. In Million Dollar Baby, nobody wants to fight her without
extra participation money.

I wonder what kind of pressure is being applied to Rousey by her manager,
agent and fight organizers?

~~~
krick
Well, I heard an opinion that the thing is pretty similar with what you said
about "Gladiator". Basically, professional sport is business. For it to be
profitable it must attract people (basically, to sell tickets, abut perhaps
even more importantly — sell adds for higher prices). And to attract people it
must entertain them.

All this Ronda-centered marketing stuff (like this whole thread, actually)
seems to do her well, but otherwise it's just not interesting to watch a fight
that lasts for 15 seconds and ends with submission by the armbar. Every time.

~~~
bmelton
> it's just not interesting to watch a fight that lasts for 15 seconds and
> ends with submission by the armbar. Every time.

Three of her last four fights were KO or TKO. She _can_ win with more than
just the armbar.

That said, I think you're underestimating the amount of people that tune in on
the potential to see her lose. Rousey's skill attracts a lot of fans, but her
attitude and status have definitely attracted plenty who would love to watch
her get beat, as well.

------
BryanBeshore
Rousey’s total cage time after 12 pro fights is 25 minutes and 36 seconds.
She’s ended eight of her pro victories in less than one minute each.

[http://mmajunkie.com/2015/08/ufc-190-post-fight-facts-
ronda-...](http://mmajunkie.com/2015/08/ufc-190-post-fight-facts-ronda-rousey-
into-uncharted-territory-in-just-ufc-six-fights)

~~~
bmelton
She could have fought her last five fights within a single 5-minute round.

------
zkhalique
Anna Kournikova also routinely beat people who had better technique in tennis.
There is something to be said about indomitable willpower!

~~~
afarrell
Indomitable willpower is what keeps you training for hours after it stopped
being fun.

~~~
rdancer
*months

------
adventured
"Top male fighters are wary of facing her."

First of all, that's false. Top male fighters, in an actual match, would
injure her. It would not be entertaining, it would be almost disgustingly
brutal. One need look no further than what Cristiane Justino - using
performance enhancing drugs - did to her opponents, to understand. Pound for
pound, top male fighters are going to be between 50% and 100% stronger than
Ronda.

I'm curious when this fantasy is going to stop being promoted? It seems to
commonly be in every thread about her, across every site.

Even more interesting, is to analyze the origins of it, why it exists, and why
people feel the need to keep it going. I can't decide if it's mostly fetish (a
male fantasy of being dominated physically), or something else entirely.

~~~
flipmonk
This assumes your 50-100% estimate is correct. A figure which is the result of
your bias that people are challenging.

~~~
baddox
The bias that men tend to be physically stronger than women, pound for pound?
The 50-100% estimate is probably an exaggeration, but from my quick glance at
competitive weightlifting results, 25% seems well-supported.

~~~
adventured
The 50% - 100% is based on top male fighters at the same weight levels.
They're going to be far stronger than her.

A strong male athlete can bench press 150%-175%+ his body weight. You think
Rousey can do 6 x 240 pounds? Not a chance.

~~~
IkmoIkmo
[http://www.exrx.net/Testing/WeightLifting/BenchStandards.htm...](http://www.exrx.net/Testing/WeightLifting/BenchStandards.html)

Very commonly referenced strength standards in lifting communities for most
people between absolute novice and absolute world class.

------
ps4fanboy
Why is HN increasingly turning into the front page of gender studies.

~~~
engi_nerd
There's some analysis on the fivethirtyeight post that is linked to, and
clearly this is a topic that interests a significant chunk of the visitors to
HN.

The plots in the post make no distinction between male and female MMA
fighters. I'm not seeing the "gender studies" aspect that you refer to, and
that bit of negativity is a little sour.

