
Ask HN: Are we still in a tech bubble? - baron816
Haven’t heard people talk about that in a while. Has is just been overshadowed by the block chain bubble, or was there never really a bubble at all? Maybe it came in for a soft landing? Could it be that the media got tired of that story and it’s actually worse than ever and ready to pop?
======
justboxing
Bubbles, like Recessions, are designated with certainty as having occurred,
only a few months after they have occurred.

Mainstream media will always have stories like this every few months, because
it creates F.U.D (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) which is a beast that feeds
itself, with the end result that the stories get 100s and 1000s of pageviews
in a matter of days = ad $ converted for said media outlet.

This is very similar to how the sports section teams of major news outlets
declare that "Boxing is Dead" after every top boxer retires. They did it after
Ali retired, after Tyson retired and most recently, after Floyd Mayweather
retired. But Boxing is still alive and well to this day, even if viewership
has dwindled from that in the 80s.

Related: Larry Merchant still writes letters to the local paper. This one is
to the LA Times after their "Boxing is Dead" Article
[https://twitter.com/steveucnlive/status/779413847102722048](https://twitter.com/steveucnlive/status/779413847102722048)

------
anonu
When I think tech bubble I think of the dot.com years in the 90s. We're way
passed that... The internet remains the driving force and backbone of any
future tech.

If you think in terms of where the internet was, is and is going - you'll see
there's plenty of juice left...

Internet v1.0 was primarily the internet of "links". V2.0 - which we're at the
tail end of now - is the social network and connecting people. (I'm
appropriating this "versioning" concept from something I heard or read - can't
remember where)

We're on the verge of Internet 3.0 and there are multiple driving forces that
will shape it: 1. cryptocurrency and decentralization of payments 2.
blockchain and decentralization of ledgers 3. IoT 4. AI enhancements ... (non-
exhaustive list & should be taken with a grain of salt as the things we think
will be big never do end up being so... )

The focus on technologies that support decentralization and network resiliency
will most probably continue - especially with net neutrality repeal.

------
forgotpassagan
It doesn't feel like a tech bubble really. The recent crop of unicorns may not
be as successful as FB/Google but besides theranos they're making good money.
Most are busy burning free cash so there might be layoffs when/if that runs
out. But these aren't the vaporware companies of the 99 bubble, they all make
a lot of money.

Except magic leap...

Cryptocurrency sure as hell feels like a bubble. My friends grandma was asking
him how to invest over Christmas....

------
krona
The global financial system is in the midst of an _everything bubble_ , and so
in comparison to everything else, the tech bubble looks less significant than
a year ago.

The current regime wont last long if US inflation picks up in 2018, which is
likely but not certain.

~~~
muzani
How does everything go into a bubble? The cash or production of wealth has to
come from somewhere.

~~~
AznHisoka
Quantitative easing is 1 source.

------
twobyfour
We're in a VC bubble. Tons of ideas are getting funded that have virtually no
likelihood of producing any return.

I would guess that this bubble will fizzle rather than pop. When the pop
begins, the VCs themselves will rather abruptly find it difficult to raise
money for their next funds.

This will make it far more difficult for startups to raise or re-raise, but
there won't be a sudden mass extinction. We'll see many fewer getting off the
ground; and those that have already raised seed or series A will for the most
part spend out their runway and then die quietly.

Unlike in the first dot-com bubble, nearly all startups in this wave have
customers other than other startups, so we'll see some companies struggle but
less of a domino effect.

~~~
aglionby
My go-to example for this is Yik Yak, which raised >$70 million before
introducing features that drove their users away. I don't understand how that
much money could be justified given the feature set of the app, though I'm
inevitably underestimating the cost of scaling.

~~~
tudelo
They had something good while it lasted. On college campuses, it essentially
functioned as an open chatroom for large classes. Of course, most of the fun
was at the expense of the professor. That and random trolling.

------
thisisit
Everything is a bubble:

[http://www.mauldineconomics.com/editorial/infographic-the-
ev...](http://www.mauldineconomics.com/editorial/infographic-the-everything-
bubble-is-ready-to-pop)

This whole thing will come down to how the Quantitive Easing winds up:

[http://www.livemint.com/Money/hyDe0jAEnml43F1kd2FzhJ/Feds-
Gr...](http://www.livemint.com/Money/hyDe0jAEnml43F1kd2FzhJ/Feds-Great-
Unwinding-begins.html)

------
nostrademons
Nah, it's deflating in a relatively soft landing, though returns for most VC
funds in the next few years are probably going to suck.

Most bubbles only really affect the people who buy in at an inflated price
(the 2009 mortgage crash was an exception because there was so much
counterparty risk that it nearly took down the whole financial system). Dot-
com bubble made several retail investors lose their life savings, but if you
didn't invest in dot-coms and didn't work for them, you probably weren't
affected. Web 2.0 bubble meant that several young founders (myself included)
had to go get real jobs. The mobile bubble is going to hurt the funds &
accelerators that invested in these companies, and they may not be able to
raise again, but outside them most people will go on with their lives.

Crypto bubble will likely be the same - folks who buy in at an inflated price
now can expect to lose everything they invest, but losses will be limited to
that. I know a bunch of people who have invested (again, myself included), but
don't know of anyone who's put in money they can't afford to lose. I've heard
it's different in South Korea.

------
muzani
I think the bubbles have moved to blockchain, AI, and big data. Apps and dot
com have solved many of the low hanging problems, but there are plenty more to
solve or improve on.

Interestingly, people are solving these problems in the form of "side
projects". Perhaps this means that the remaining problems don't work with the
'unicorn' VC model, but can make some solo founder a millionaire on their own.

------
twunde
Tech appears to be going through a relatively soft landing at the moment. The
past few years have seen a series A crunch affect the VC and startup worlds.
More recently, the cult of the startup founder has started to crack with
ethics, sexual harassment and poor behavior.

------
tw1010
I suspect it is more likely that the bubble was way overestimated by the media
in the past.

------
luyi06
Yes, buzzword driven business.

