
Shelter in place for Bay Area counties - jchallis
https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Bay-Area-must-shelter-in-place-Only-15135014.php?t=ebc54dc680
======
wolfgang42
Full text of the order, more info, and FAQs: [https://sf.gov/stay-home-except-
essential-needs](https://sf.gov/stay-home-except-essential-needs)

~~~
NonEUCitizen
Santa Clara county:

[https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-
co...](https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-
coronavirus/Pages/order-health-officer-031620.aspx)

------
hashamali
Important caveat:

 _Grocery stores and pharmacies will remain open, and restaurants may stay
open to provide takeout food only. Also staying open: veterinary services, gas
stations and auto repair shops, hardware and other home supply stores, banks
and laundry services._

 _Daycare centers may stay open, but children must be kept in groups no larger
than 12, and they must stay with the same group of children every day._

~~~
rconti
They also explicitly talked about going out to walk the dog, go for a hike,
etc, as long as you keep your distance. (presumably, not from the person you
live with and will get infected by anyway)

I'm not particularly interested in getting in a bike crash and taxing the ER
even further, but i'll be avoiding cabin fever for sure.

~~~
nitrogen
_the person you live with_

I wonder how this crisis and lockdown will affect dating and future birth
rates.

~~~
theengway
If you are a couple living together, it may increase your chances to make more
babies. Especially if you are not allowed to get out to buy some protective
gear (;

~~~
gregschlom
Counter point: [https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-19-peak-divorce-
rate-c...](https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-19-peak-divorce-rate-chinese-
cities-2020-3)

~~~
hef19898
Unfortunately, these points are not exclusive.

------
hisnameisjimmy
Another important one:

> Under the order, residents will still be allowed to take a walk, exercise or
> take a pet out to use the bathroom as long as people remain at least six-
> feet away from others who are not a member of their own household.

~~~
TomVDB
I was wondering about the exercising part: do I need to feel guilty about
going out for a run or a bike ride (by myself, of course) ?

~~~
yissp
Staying active is probably good for your immune system. At least that's how
I'm going to rationalize it :)

~~~
pmoriarty
Yes, but you don't have to go outside to exercise.

Plenty of exercise can be done indoors, and without any equipment either.

You could do bodyweight exercise like push-ups, L-sits, burpees, and many
others without any equipment.

For a small investment you could get a couple of barbells or a pull-up bar to
extend even further the number of exercises you can do indoors and in a very
small space.

~~~
spookthesunset
Or go outside and exercise without feeling guilty. Being outside is important
to your mental and physical health.

~~~
tekknik
Going outside could also be detrimental to your health. Humans are not so weak
they can’t stay inside for a few weeks. Please do us all a favor and take this
seriously. I promise you won’t die from staying inside for 3 weeks.

~~~
tanseydavid
The order says that one can go outside.

~~~
tekknik
Same response as the other one you commented on.

------
wespiser_2018
I'd be curious to hear what the rationale for taking this exact measure is,
versus something more or less severe. Yes, it's to stop the spread of the
virus, but what information is going into this decision? Is this simply an
effort to copy the effective strategies employed by China and Korea to slow
down the virus, or based off a simulation/modelling effort?

~~~
ralph84
Or even a basic cost/benefit analysis. "We expect this will save X lives, at a
cost of $Y to the economy." Shouldn't someone be doing that analysis? There
are lots of things that would save lives if we did them (e.g. ban cars), but
we don't because the cost is too high.

~~~
bduerst
That metric is hard to calculate because the transmission rate is still not
very well understood for Covid-19, i.e. In order to calculate the cost of
staying open, you need to accurately estimate the number of infected, number
of deaths, and impact on current healthcare capacity.

What is known is that it is incredibly contagious, so they're taking
precautions for a worse-case scenario with these shut downs.

~~~
pmoriarty
_" That metric is hard to calculate because the transmission rate is still not
very well understood for Covid-19"_

I've heard multiple times from the virologists at _This Week in Virology_ that
we're not going to know the real numbers until it's all over.

In addition to that, they are going to be highly variable depending on the
demographics, pre-existing conditions, and the level of medical care you are
able to get.

So it's going to be very difficult to calculate these sorts of metrics even
when the actual infection/death rates are known.

~~~
blaser-waffle
> In addition to that, they are going to be highly variable depending on the
> demographics, pre-existing conditions, and the level of medical care you are
> able to get.

Which is a big concern to the US, since there is no universal care. That said,
I'm in Canada and the healthcare options in rural areas is often hit or miss
-- sometimes just a clinic, sometimes just nothin.

------
twblalock
If we shelter in place and the disease is not eradicated, won't it just come
back?

It seems like we need to either eradicate it 100% or develop herd immunity by
exposing as many people as possible.

There is clearly value in limiting the rate of infection, but that means the
shelter in place is just a rate limit, and we are in for something much longer
than just a few weeks.

~~~
deelowe
Everyone just needs to shelter in place long enough for testing capacity to
improve. Early detection is key, but without that, we have to slow the spread.

~~~
matt-attack
How does _testing_ help anything? Other than just providing good reporting. It
doesn't address the issue, nor solve the actual underlying problem.

I mean, if I'm feeling sick wouldn't I just proceed _as if_ I had it? How
doesn't actually _knowing_ change anything? My course of action should be
identical.

~~~
kccqzy
Testing helps. If you do have the virus, it lets you know you do and then you
won't leave your home. If there's no testing, you might see that you have no
symptoms and mistakenly believe you don't have the virus, go out and infect
more people. It's about asymptomatic carriers.

That's why everyone needs to stay home until we have enough testing to
accurately determine who can safely go out.

~~~
pmoriarty
In addition:

 _Having the ability to test quickly means you can save hospital isolation
wards from unnecessary overcrowding, because you can now know whether a person
who comes in with respiratory symptoms actually has Covid-19 rather than
having to treat everyone as though they might. "It means you can move from a
presumptive stance to a more informed stance"_[1]

If doctors know you're sick with COVID-19 and your disease is severe enough,
they might offer you one of the experimental treatments for it, or you might
be offered to participate in one of the hundreds of ongoing research studies.

Testing will also help determine where scarce medical resources need to be
allocated, which people need to be isolated, and around which people medical
personnel need to wear protective equipment.

Finally, testing will let epidemiologists track the progress of the disease
and have better estimates about how severe it's going to be, and possibly
predict in which communities it'll get better or worse. This will help public
health officials decide where and when to declare or end
quarantines/lockdowns.

[1] - [https://www.wired.com/story/fda-approves-the-first-
commercia...](https://www.wired.com/story/fda-approves-the-first-commercial-
coronavirus-tests-in-the-us/)

------
moverthrowaway
Does anyone know if this is legally binding, or just a recommendation? I'm
moving from one of the affected counties to another of them very soon. I've
already paid a deposit on movers and signed a lease, and I need to move out of
my old apartment or I'll be paying rent in two high-rent areas at the same
time. I can't afford to pay over $7000/mo while I wait to see when this will
be lifted. If my movers refuse to disobey the health order then I don't know
what I'm going to do. I just don't have the money...

~~~
ghufran_syed
It just counts as necessary travel - no cop is going to give you a hard time
about moving apartments

~~~
moverthrowaway
I'm not worried about me personally getting pulled over, I'm worried about
moving companies not operating. I need a moving truck in order to vacate my
old apartment or I'm stuck still paying rent.

~~~
hkmurakami
Yeah this is a real concern. I have heard that home staging companies (for
home sales) are not operating, and appraisers may follow suit. Movers are a
sort of adjacent industry and may shut down operations. Try giving them a
call. They probably don't know for sure either but may give you some peace of
mind and/or direction.

------
ourmandave
People ordered to stay home except for "essential jobs" which are defined in
this article as:

[https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Bay-
Area-...](https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Bay-Area-must-
shelter-in-place-Only-15135014.php)

 _A wide swath of businesses that do not provide “essential” services must
send workers home. Among those remaining open are grocery stores, pharmacies,
restaurants for delivery only and hardware stores. Most workers are ordered to
stay home, with exceptions including health care workers; police, fire and
other emergency responders; and utility providers such as electricians,
plumbers and sanitation workers. BART will remain running for essential
travel, and airports are not closing._

~~~
dx034
I don't get why they don't close airports for all but cargo traffic. That way
they could close off all terminals, probably saving ~90% of personnel. With
cargo only, just warehouses and a minimum of security and air traffic control
would have to be on site. Keeping terminals staffed when people aren't
supposed to travel anyway doesn't seem logical.

------
29athrowaway
1) Stop panic buying and price gouging.

2) Read the story of South Korea's Patient 31.

[https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-
CLUSTER...](https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-
CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html)

3) It's not the flu. It's more contagious and if you get pneumonia you will
have permanent lung damage. It can also invade your nervous system.

4) Pneumonia will not kill you, but it requires hospitalization. The US has
less than 3 hospital beds per every 1,000 people.

5) Reported cases are a small subset of the actual number of cases. There are
not enough test kits.

~~~
Cyberdog
> The US has less than 3 hospital beds per every 100,000 people.

Citation, please. Here's a counter: This list shows about 29 _ICU beds_ (so
not even just beds more broadly) per 100,000 in the US:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds)

~~~
29athrowaway
Corrected: per every 1,000. Thanks.

------
rlt
> The order calls for the sheriff or chief of police to “ensure compliance.”

What does this mean?

~~~
lsllc
I'm genuinely curious as to the legality of any kind of lockdown order
(presumably that's the next step). I don't doubt that people really need to
stay home, away from others in order to stop the spread. But can the governor
or a mayor actually order you to stay home under penalty of law?

We've heard that in Italy there are fines and jail time ... but does that even
pass constitutional muster here in terms of freedom of movement?

~~~
rlt
This is probably an unpopular opinion, but...

I intend to break any sort of mandatory lockdown/curfew, without putting
myself or anyone else at risk (e.x. going for a walk in a non-crowded outdoor
area). I'm not comfortable with the government telling me when and where I can
be on such a broad and open-ended basis.

To be clear, I'm not being reckless like people still going on vacations or
eating at crowded Red Robins or whatever
([https://brobible.com/culture/article/miss-nevada-katie-
willi...](https://brobible.com/culture/article/miss-nevada-katie-williams-red-
robin-coronavirus/)). I've already been social distancing for a week and am
now in full self-imposed lockdown (excluding mentioned outdoor walks and
picking up essential supplies)

~~~
nokcha
>I intend to break any sort of mandatory lockdown/curfew, without putting
myself or anyone else at risk (e.x. going for a walk in a non-crowded outdoor
area)

Going for a walk in a non-crowded area is permitted under the order. See
[https://sf.gov/stay-home-except-essential-needs](https://sf.gov/stay-home-
except-essential-needs) :

>It is OK to go outside for walks if you are not in a group.

------
leftyted
(A bit off topic) The current situation is a good argument for owning a car.

I don't own a car -- I take the subway to work (about 25 minutes each way).
But it seems dumb to use the subway at this time, which means I have to work
from home. If I had a car, I'd feel safe commuting.

~~~
jMyles
It is unlikely that this virus will kill more people than die in car crashes
in a single year. Let's keep some perspective.

edit: Commenter below asked for citations, which is reasonable. :-)

This comment applies to the USA only.

There were 37,991 deaths classified under one of the WISQRS "Motor Vehicle
Traffic Death" codes last year.[0]

Another 1000-3000 are reasonably counted also, for example, the 203 deaths
coded as "Pedestrian injured in nontraffic accident involving other and
unspecified motor vehicles." (this includes some cases of people injuring
themselves with cars on private property, etc).

I think we can safely say 40,000, without even including any part of the long-
term health effects of cars; this is just deaths from crashes.

We've had 71 deaths from COVID-19 so far[1]. We don't know how many total
infections or transmissions have occurred; estimates vary unbelievably wildly
because of so little test coverage. [2]

It's possible that our death rate is high, more likely that, at least so far,
it is much, much lower than has been published in the media (the 8% of people
over 65 figure, for example, uses only confirmed cases, which almost certainly
represent only a tiny fraction of cases).

Based on these numbers and sources, I think it's a reasonable assertion that
the number of otherwise unexpected deaths to result from COVID-19 is unlikely
to be higher than the number killed by cars.

0: [https://webappa.cdc.gov](https://webappa.cdc.gov)

1:
[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

2:
[http://perkinslab.weebly.com/uploads/2/5/6/2/25629832/perkin...](http://perkinslab.weebly.com/uploads/2/5/6/2/25629832/perkins_etal_sarscov2.pdf)

~~~
raphlinus
Deaths so far is an astonishingly bad metric to use for this, it's analogous
to 63 grains of rice on the 6th day of the classic chessboard story.

If we _don 't_ do drastic measures, many experts are citing numbers in the
high hundreds of thousands to over a million (example [1], which is well worth
reading). But if we do act, the experience of China, South Korea, and
Singapore teach us that we can do better.

[1] [https://tincture.io/dispatch-4-from-the-front-
lines-79c74fa6...](https://tincture.io/dispatch-4-from-the-front-
lines-79c74fa67ae0)

(I want to link [https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/notes-from-ucsf-expert-
panel-...](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/notes-from-ucsf-expert-panel-
march-10-dr-jordan-shlain-m-d-/?published=t) which actually does give numbers,
but that might no longer be available)

~~~
jMyles
It is not the case that "many experts are citing numbers in the high hundreds
of thousands to a million people". From the blog post you've cited (and which
I agree is thoughtful, and which I had already read when another friend sent
it my way a couple hours ago): "There are no experts. There are only good
people trying their best to sift through the raft of information coming in
extremely fast."

But the numbers you've cited do not represent a mainstream view in the papers
currently being reviewed and published as far as I can tell.

Give this a read, "2019-novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case
fatality rate—a word of caution":
[https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203](https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203)

...and for that matter, take some time to consider generally the resources on
CIDRAP; they are one of the few academic centers that seem to be actually
focused on science instead of hype.
[http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/](http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/)

~~~
raphlinus
Thanks for the article link and the reference to CIDRAP. I'm trying to take in
a lot of information, especially views dissenting from the mainstream. These
are useful resources.

> It is not the case that "many experts are citing numbers in the high
> hundreds of thousands to a million people".

You are objectively wrong on this. The UCSF panel on 3/10 presented an
estimate with a range of 1.5 million on the high side. Dr. Osterholm said on
the Joe Rogan podcast, "We conservatively estimate that this could require 48
million hospitalizations, and over 480,000 deaths over the next 3-7 months."
The Imperial report warns of up to 2.2 million in the US, and even with
mitigations in place a large number of fatalities. Not one of the
epidemiologists I follow on Twitter has called this estimate into question,
and many have praised the report.

Nobody has the real answers, and we all have to do our best interpreting the
evidence that's out there, but making shit up is not helpful.

ETA: I found a working link to the 3/10 UCSF panel: [https://tincture.io/an-
expert-covid-19-panel-from-ucsf-664a3...](https://tincture.io/an-expert-
covid-19-panel-from-ucsf-664a34c1d593)

~~~
jMyles
edit: OK, wow, I realize that I did indeed misinterpret Osterholm's statement
on the podcast - at first listen, I thought he was discussing worldwide
numbers. You are correct; his warning, based on the American Hospital
Assocation, is 480k deaths in the United States.

As best I can tell, he is citing the "leaked webinar" for hospital prep from
the American Hospital Association. I can't find this document or other
interpretations of it.

But yeah, I was dead wrong about what he said. \---

Ahh, gotcha.

I think there's some confusion about what we're talking about.

I thought you were talking about a number of deaths _in the USA_ (ie, compared
to my pointing to the approximately 40k traffic deaths).

480k deaths, the CIDRAP estimate cited by Osterholm (which, by the way, I
can't find a PDF for - do you happen to have a link), is unlikely to include
more than 40k US deaths; I don't think there has ever been a pandemic where
the US accounted for 9% of the worldwide deaths, has there?

For example, the 2009 H1N1 outbreak saw 284,000 deaths worldwide, with 12,000
in the USA. [0]

> The Imperial report warns of up to 2.2 million in the US, and even with
> mitigations in place a large number of fatalities.

We might need help interpreting the 2.2 million number - it is described as
the calculation of an "unmitigated pandemic", and appears to take the worst
death rate for each age group observed worldwide and combining it with the
"cumulative ICU cases trigger" (the report loses me here), and then simply
applying it to the USA population.

In other words, I don't think it's meant as a prediction, but a ceiling to
define the parameters of the report.

But again, I'd appreciate some help interpreting.

0: [http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2012/06/cdc-
estim...](http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2012/06/cdc-estimate-
global-h1n1-pandemic-deaths-284000)

~~~
raphlinus
My source for that quote was this transcript of the podcast:
[https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/joe-rogan-michael-
oster...](https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/joe-rogan-michael-osterholm-
podcast-transcript-infectious-disease-expert-talks-coronavirus)

------
wolfgang42
From the press conference, less than 30 seconds ago: “this order is
enforceable as a misdemeanor, but that is an absolute last resort.”

~~~
jameslevy
This probably means, in practical terms, to obey a police officer's request to
go home unless you know you are doing something important.

~~~
dsfyu404ed
I think in practice this will be a warning or civil infraction unless you make
a bad impression on the cop since that is basically how every other crime
where the officer had the discretion to choose between civil/criminal goes.

------
nostromo
Won't this just delay the outbreak for three weeks?

It seems we're just trying to delay the inevitable.

And before you respond about how we're trying to slow exposure so medical
services are available -- that would imply we're going to need to quarantines
for a few weeks every few weeks for, what, a year? More? There's no way this
action is sustainable.

This analysis suggests that actually flattening the curve would require us to
slow this virus down over the course of a decade:

[https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-
dea...](https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-
delusion-eea324fe9727)

~~~
raphlinus
flattenthecurve.com has a good general audience to smart person presentation
on why this is needed. For a more expert audience, the recent report from
Imperial College [1] provides detailed analysis.

[1]: [https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-
ana...](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news
--wuhan-coronavirus/)

[edit, as apparently you edited your comment after I posted my response] The
essay you linked praises the complete lockdown in Wuhan as being effective.
That said, it's written by an AI researcher, as opposed to a public health
expert.

~~~
hardtke
But given that it only applies to a limited geographical region with free
movement in and out not restricted it is unclear it will have the desired
effect. This policy needs to be at the state or national level to be
effective.

~~~
raphlinus
It would be better to have a coordinated response on this. But as a wise
leader once said, “You go to war with the army you have, not the army you
might want or wish to have at a later time.”

------
Phylter
It's coming to the rest of the country soon. My employer has already sent many
of their employees to work from home though they've never had a work from home
policy and very few exceptions to the rule. As the continuing jokes goes, I
guess we'll find out how well we can work from home after all.

~~~
Cyberdog
Your employer sending employees home does not have the force of law behind it.
You're probably not at risk of getting shot and/or imprisoned for violating
their request.

~~~
ourmandave
From official post:

 _It is OK to go outside for walks if you are not in a group._

I don't think they'll be shooting or arresting anyone.

And the other linked article said they'll be lax enforcement the first few
days to give people time to adjust.

~~~
npo9
How is this not an infringement on the right to assemble?

~~~
thereare5lights
Good luck getting a court of law to rule against this order.

~~~
mturmon
The Supreme Court has suspended sessions that have oral arguments, starting
today:

[https://www.supremecourt.gov/publicinfo/press/pressreleases/...](https://www.supremecourt.gov/publicinfo/press/pressreleases/pr_03-16-20)

“The Court’s postponement of argument sessions in light of public health
concerns is not unprecedented. The Court postponed scheduled arguments for
October 1918 in response to the Spanish flu epidemic. The Court also shortened
its argument calendars in August 1793 and August 1798 in response to yellow
fever outbreaks.”

------
lsllc
The FAQ seems well thought out, lots of answers and reasonable ones too (can I
walk my dog? -- yes if you keep 6 ft from other people).

~~~
starik36
Why does one have to keep the dog 6 ft from people? Afaik, dogs are not
Covid-19 vectors.

~~~
inferiorhuman
[https://www.sacbee.com/news/nation-
world/world/article240726...](https://www.sacbee.com/news/nation-
world/world/article240726876.html)

[https://nypost.com/2020/03/14/hong-kong-dog-with-
coronavirus...](https://nypost.com/2020/03/14/hong-kong-dog-with-coronavirus-
tests-negative-after-quarantine/)

I'd say it's likely that dogs can be carriers although it sounds unlikely that
they'll come down with full on COVID-19. They found the virus in the dog's
sinuses but later blood tests came back negative.

------
yumraj
Does anyone know how these are enforced?

Especially since the order says _Violation of or failure to comply with this
Order is a misdemeanor punishable by fine, imprisonment, or both._

------
jmspring
The wording of the Santa Clara order (only one I read) is interesting. If one
splits time between two locations (both private residences) one residing in
one of the impacted counties and one not, is transit between both allowed for?

I'm going with the assumption that surrounding counties outside the six
mentioned in the article will take up a similar measure.

~~~
lsllc
According to below (and I don't know enough about the Bay Area geography to
know if this covers your use-case), you cannot without leaving the area "for
good" (until the order is lifted):

> Am I allowed to leave the areas covered by this Order to travel to/from a
> vacation home outside the Bay Area?

> No, except to the extent that you leave the Bay Area and do not travel back
> or are leaving for a permitted purpose. That kind of travel runs the risk of
> spreading the virus around the state or elsewhere, and that puts others at
> risk. Stay put and don’t risk exposing yourself or others.

[https://sf.gov/stay-home-except-essential-needs#main-
content](https://sf.gov/stay-home-except-essential-needs#main-content)

(sorry, there's no anchor for the FAQ elements, you'll have to search for the
text).

------
ta1234567890
How about medical cannabis? Will people still be able to get it?

~~~
p1mrx
At this point, it should all be considered medical. Cannabis is an effective
way to accelerate the perceived passage of time when you're stuck alone at
home for months.

~~~
JadeNB
> Cannabis is an effective way to accelerate the perceived passage of time
> when you're stuck alone at home for months.

Accelerate? Maybe medical marijuana is different, but my non-medical
experience was of time seeming to stretch out forever, not to speed by.

~~~
earthboundkid
Reminds me of the game Super Hexagon. It’s a great game but a terrible time
killer because you need all of your concentration to survive for… one minute.
Most of the time you’re dead in less than 10 seconds. It’s terrible when
you’re killing time at the bus stop.

------
Analemma_
What about delivery services? That's how a lot of people have been getting
food and other goods lately.

~~~
wolfgang42
From the FAQ that was just posted: "Businesses that ship or deliver groceries,
food, goods or services directly to residences" are an essential service and
can continue operating.

------
sershe
What is the constitutional take on this issue? I've started voluntarily
quarantining last week (skipped the gym and bars :)), but what I perceive as
escalating over-reaction has shifted my opinion over the last few days.

If this is an order in WA and they don't literally put a cop by my door, I
wonder where I stand when I willfully violate it.

I've tried to do some research but most of the freedom of movement cases seem
to be concerned with interstate and international travel.

------
shaunxcode
It worries me that this is not directly addressing the obvious issue of people
who will not be getting paid for 3 weeks needing to pay rent(not to mention
food and other living expenses). Will this need to be handled at the federal
level? What are the options? If it doesn’t get addressed soon the words “rent
strike” are going to become louder and louder.

------
CalChris
Alameda County joined Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa
Clara counties with the City of Berkeley on a legal order directing their
respective residents to shelter at home for three weeks beginning March 17.

[http://www.acphd.org/2019-ncov](http://www.acphd.org/2019-ncov)

------
guiomie
Do you think gun shops will close? I read in the news a lot of people were
lining up for guns recently in California. With that 10 days wait law, a lot
of these people would not get their purchase before the stay in shelter takes
effect. I also know the 2nd amendment is a big deal in the USA.

~~~
NonEUCitizen
Bay Area's view of 2nd amendment is somewhat different from what you perceive
to be USA's view.

~~~
erobbins
If this gets extremely bad, many people will change their view. Unfortunately
for them it will be too late.

------
woofie11
Good. Now all of America needs to do this at the same time for about 3 weeks.

Then we need to have infrastructure to trace, track down, and quarantine any
remaining cases like Korea.

~~~
rubidium
Many small businesses esp. in hospitality have to fire most of their staff
because of this. It’s not a trivial thing to do, and only worthwhile when the
infection/death rate starts climbing. Rural areas and smaller cities are
pretty safe if social distancing is used effectively. They don’t yet need to
resort to these drastic measures.

~~~
woofie11
If you delay, the only thing that happens is you need to resort to drastic
measures for longer, more people die, and more economic damage happens.

The trick is to manage the economic implications. The government can hire
those people, pay people to stay home, or whatever else. It will lead to
inflation, but that's better than a million deaths.

------
jakeogh
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22583594](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22583594)

------
aleatorisch
A surprising number of people commenting that this is an overreaction. I
suggest reading this[1] and this[2] before you're so hasty to dismiss this.
This is absolutely the right move (and if anything should have been done
sooner).

Also luckily the comment ranking here seems to mean your peers disagree with
you.

[1]: [https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-
peop...](https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-
die-f4d3d9cd99ca)

[2]: [https://www.flattenthecurve.com/](https://www.flattenthecurve.com/)

~~~
solidasparagus
One perspective is that people are tired of getting the short end of the
stick. Yet again the young incur an outsized proportion of the cost while the
old reap an outsized proportion of the benefit.

~~~
usaar333
Young people are underestimating the risk to themselves. A 0.1% IFR still
justifies spending $20k a person to avoid.

~~~
solidasparagus
But the current order is closer to mass job loss and I don't know that the
risk to young people justifies that.

~~~
pmoriarty
There's likely to be massive job loss either way. At least this way there's a
chance to keep our health care system from being overwhelmed as well.

Either way, we may be looking at an economic depression the likes of which
hasn't been seen for a hundred years.

Unfortunately, the current government is very unlikely to offer a New Deal to
get us out of it, and it remains to be seen what the voters who survive this
pandemic will do about it.

~~~
solidasparagus
I'm doubtful about your first statement. People are resilient - I find it hard
to imagine a maybe 2x increase in annual US deaths causing such widespread and
complete shutdown of economic activity.

~~~
pmoriarty
The estimates that I've seen have ranged from 330k to 10 million deaths in the
US.. and that's just directly from COVID-19 alone.

An overwhelmed health care system and lack of medicines and medical supplies
is likely to cause even more deaths.

That's not to mention other possible deaths due to the ensuing chaos and
social and economic disruption brought about by the above deaths, global
political instability, and reduced supply and demand from the rest of the
world as it battles this pandemic.

~~~
TACIXAT
400k people die from smoking related illnesses every year. Can we ban tobacco?
How about sugar to prevent obesity related illnesses? I think these measure
are reasonable, I think allowing other such stupid things is unreasonable.

How many people will die from climate change? It really feels like unless it
is an uncontrolled threat to baby boomers we will not take action on it.

~~~
arcticbull
> 400k people die from smoking related illnesses every year. Can we ban
> tobacco?

400K people die from smoking related illnesses, as a result of consuming
something they knew would do that to them. What we outlawed was second-hand
smoke, where we prevented innumerable deaths of people who _didn 't_ get to
choose whether they smoked: at bars, at restaurants, at casinos, on airplanes.
That is a fair place to draw the line. If you want to kill yourself smoking,
you know the risks, and so long as you're not impacting anyone else, have at
it.

> How about sugar to prevent obesity related illnesses?

As in this case a debate should be had: personal liberty vs. companies who
know they're selling a harmful product. The right place to draw the line could
easily be to outlaw advertising of sugar-added products to children.

> I think these measure are reasonable, I think allowing other such stupid
> things is unreasonable.

Not going out to the detriment of others is far closer to second-hand smoking
than to first-hand smoking so I'd wager an entire couple of decades of case
law and precedent exists.

> How many people will die from climate change? It really feels like unless it
> is an uncontrolled threat to baby boomers we will not take action on it.

Boomers represent 22% of the US population as of 2018, and obviously, falling.
If I remember my math right, democracy gives the youth a pretty big edge so
they can't really pin this one on the boomers anymore.

------
baby
> This order is in effect until April 7.

What happens after that?

And when will we extend this to the whole country?

------
SubiculumCode
Healthcare is National Defense, and should be funded as such. Full stop.

~~~
nickff
Healthcare gets much more money than Defense, even if you only look at the
federal budget.

[https://www.nationalpriorities.org/budget-basics/federal-
bud...](https://www.nationalpriorities.org/budget-basics/federal-
budget-101/spending/)

~~~
SubiculumCode
Oh heck. You are right.

------
nomel
Have there been any legal analysis of this? Is this constitutional?

~~~
zozbot234
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_power_(United_States_co...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_power_\(United_States_constitutional_law\))

~~~
nomel
> provided these measures do not infringe upon any of the rights protected by
> the United States Constitution

I had the right to free travel in mind, specifically.

~~~
arcticbull
Each and every right has reasonable restrictions as interpreted by the court.
_Each and every one_. Y'all come out of the woodwork every time something bad
happens and showcase the worst civics education America has to offer.

~~~
nomel
Excuse me? Just because I don't know the details of the constitutional doesn't
mean I'm crawling out of the woodwork. Maybe you've had police law in your
city before, but this is the first time I've experienced someone saying I
can't go where I want, so I'm genuinely curious how all of this works.

Of course there are limits, and I'm asking what they are, in this specific
case.

Feel free to contribute to the discussion.

------
yingw787
Somehow I feel like we're still being let off easy. Antibiotics still work for
the vast majority of bacterial infections. The U.S. government has (at last)
come together-ish to fight this. The U.S. dollar is still the world's reserve
currency via Bretton Woods and we can print money to alleviate pain and
suffering. So...what will happen to us when these facts may no longer hold
true?

I don't think this pandemic is do-or-die. This pandemic is just a stress test
for what's to come.

~~~
axaxs
I think your last point is perhaps most important. The way the fed is printing
cash, I feel the dollar would have absolutely tanked were it not the dominant
world currency.

~~~
yingw787
Right?? 1.5T as a knee-jerk reaction to a market dip? Did they even consult
Congress w.r.t. liquidity injection via fiscal policy? We should have rolled
back QE years ago and suffered the pain of a small or medium recession, but
nobody wanted to go for it because recession bad. Now we have a big recession
looming and risk running out of tools, and I don't think this is the biggest
recessionary event possible.

~~~
axaxs
Even before the 1.5T, the fed has been pumping imaginary money, especially to
the repo market hoping they'd get it back.

I disagree that this isn't the biggest recessionary event. Never in my
lifetime, or even my parents, has EVERYTHING shut down at the same time. This
is economically bad. We're promising to help the affected industries, which is
more cash printing. The USG cannot support the entire economy for months.
Either the market or the government has to break, and I feel it's gonna be the
former.

~~~
yingw787
Dude...don't jinx us man...

On a serious note, there are many, many things we're doing well on that might
change, the financial aspect is only one of them. If we're doing bad, we could
be doing so, so, so, so much worse. I can't stress that enough.

------
DougN7
How will we ever get herd immunity at this rate? Don’t we have to get sick at
some point? At least 200 million of us in the US?

~~~
inamberclad
The odds are that you'll still get infected. Prevention has been mostly
abandoned, the point now is to slow the spread enough that there will be
enough ICU beds for whoever needs them.

~~~
DougN7
I seriously wonder how that will work. At 10 million per month it would take
almost two years. Can we do social distancing that long?

~~~
inamberclad
Gave it some thought, and the best case I can think of is that this'll burn
itself out if everyone can keep the proper distance for long enough.
Basically, the track, test, and isolate route that South Korea did.

~~~
DougN7
I’d like to believe that. But the darn thing is infectious enough that just a
small handful of people still having it will restart the whole thing.

------
fortran77
It should be a "misdemeanor" for people to buy more product than they need
for, say, a week.

~~~
artursapek
Define "need". Are you going to start fining obese people for over-eating?

~~~
SubiculumCode
This is not a time to be pedantic.

~~~
Cyberdog
When people want to speak broadly about taking rights away, it's a perfect
time to be pedantic.

~~~
SubiculumCode
There is plenty of precedent for enforced rationing. e.g. during WWII.

~~~
Cyberdog
WWII also gave us precedent for imprisoning citizens based solely on their
race.

Precedent does not turn a civil-rights-destroying idea into a legitimate one.

------
H8crilA
That's one way to fight homelessness /s

Seriously though it's as if all those things that America is lagging the world
in seem to come together in one large event (financial over-leverage, lack of
public health care, denial of facts at highest levels of government, poor sick
leave, generally terrible social safety, low trust in the government).

~~~
dcftoapv
China and Europe have public healthcare and social safety. They've been much
worse off than the US so far. I'm not saying that won't change, but to sit
here and shit all over America's approach to limited government is a premature
celebration.

~~~
fiblye
They’ve also had widespread infection for longer. China got a 3 month head
start. It’s pointless to say one has an good outcome when it’s only now
beginning to grow.

And some countries like Japan have public health care. Despite being one of
the first countries with widespread infection, they’re still far below
America.

~~~
big_chungus
China also has a wider set of options to violate the liberties of her
citizens. That does come in handy some times, but we've decided we don't do
that here. Japan is very, very different culturally, so it's quite hard to
compare; she's also a small archipelago whereas America is a large landmass.

It will also be interesting to see the court cases that come from what
American governments have done so far; there's a serious case to be made for
violations of our right to freely assemble. Even the time, place, and manner
standard (which is still contested but is current precedent) may not cover
such drastic curtailment of all public gatherings.

Sadly, these things usually happen and get fought out in court later (see
Japanese internment camps) when in some sort of crisis state, so I doubt
constitutionality has any bearing on the pencil-pushers latest and greatest
idea.

Friendly reminder that, while I don't see any malicious intent in the current
actions, these directives specifically sound disturbingly close to those
issued by many an authoritarian government:

> You cannot engage in group activities in person with others.

> You cannot have dinner parties. You cannot invite friends over to your home
> to hang out.

The precedent set today could be abused in the future, particularly precedent
that looks like this.

~~~
arcticbull
> Friendly reminder that, while I don't see any malicious intent in the
> current actions, these directives specifically sound disturbingly close to
> those issued by many an authoritarian government.

And yet, China's number of active cases went from 81K to 9K in a few weeks.

~~~
dcftoapv
Don't trust Chinese statistics. They are manipulated to say whatever the
government wants them to say. This is the same country that starting running
empty production facilities so economists couldn't predict GDP impacts.

~~~
arcticbull
The WHO agreed with China's assessment, and if you don't believe them, Tim
Cook re-opened all Apple stores in China because the situation is effectively
under control now -- and shut them everywhere else in the world.

No matter how you feel about China, you can believe Tim.

~~~
big_chungus
It's also possible that the communists pressured Cook to re-open to send that
message. It wouldn't be the first time Apple has caved to the CCP.

To answer your earlier comment, even if the cases dropped, are you arguing
that we implement authoritarianism just because it's more convenient in this
case? Classic "trains run on time" argument. Of course it offers some
benefits, but the losses are far greater.

~~~
arcticbull
You think Tim Cook bowed to China and closed every Apple store in the entire
world except in China? That hardly seems likely.

> To answer your earlier comment, even if the cases dropped, are you arguing
> that we implement authoritarianism just because it's more convenient in this
> case? Classic "trains run on time" argument. Of course it offers some
> benefits, but the losses are far greater.

Not making an argument one way or the other just stating some facts. People
can make up their own minds.

------
elguap0
Can still go to groceries and stuff no? Will shipping be affected?

~~~
danso
The article says shopping is still allowed:

> _People in the six counties will still be able to go shopping for items such
> as food and household supplies, and seek medical care. They will be able to
> go outside for walks or exercise as long as they keep six feet away from
> anyone they don’t already live with._

~~~
elguap0
What about shipping? Will this affect supply lines? I understand local things
will be open but will the supply be able to get to em?

------
BurningFrog
And of course the homeless are exempt.

Don't think China or Singapore have that issue...

~~~
ahelwer
Because of robust social housing policies, yes. Homeless people exist but are
much more rare. A large number of homeless people is the mark of a weak,
dysfunctional society.

~~~
wolfgang42
Yeah, it's difficult to shelter in place when you don't have any shelter.

~~~
Animats
SF is getting trailers, but not sure where they intend to put them.

------
marknadal
And how do they expect to legally & constitutionally enforce this?

Not that SF isn't already a ghost town tho.

~~~
wrs
With, you know, public health law.

CALIFORNIA HEALTH AND SAFETY CODE DIVISION 105. COMMUNICABLE DISEASE
PREVENTION AND CONTROL

[https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displayexpand...](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displayexpandedbranch.xhtml?lawCode=HSC&division=105.&title=&part=1.&chapter=3.5.&article=&goUp=Y)

------
scarejunba
Anecdotally, traffic on the main street by my home looks normal, judging by
what I can see out my window in SF. Had a motorcade go by just now but apart
from that.

------
blintz
Three weeks is very long to lock down 6.7 million people. I assume that
enforcement will be assisted by someone like the National Guard. Wonder if
there will be a large fleeing out of the area (since people are not forbidden
from leaving).

~~~
onetimemanytime
It's not gonna be three weeks, we're not that lucky.

~~~
AJ007
Once the hospitals a past capacity and people are dying in tents, it will make
a lot more sense. This should have been done earlier but it wasn’t, and likely
could not be in a free country.

~~~
onetimemanytime
Dying is a charitable word...you'll be left to essentially drown fully aware.
Have you read the stories from Italian docs? Old and/or those with diabetes
and heart issues are left alone, not by choice. Triage.

[https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-
italy-...](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-italy-
doctors-intensive-care-deaths-a9384356.html)

[https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-italian-doctor-
says-f...](https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-italian-doctor-says-
fighting-covid-19-outbreak-is-like-war-11954229)

~~~
spookthesunset
Spreading panic helps nobody.

~~~
onetimemanytime
First it's true and I'm not telling it to a 4 year old. And second:

 _He bitterly scorned people "on social networks who pride themselves on not
being afraid and ignoring the rules, complaining because their normal
lifestyle habits are 'temporarily' in crisis - all the while an
epidemiological disaster is taking place"._

------
mlindner
This is ridiculous and completely overblown. WFH home is plenty along with
simply avoiding crowded spaces. They better not do something stupid like close
the airports I need to visit family beginning in April.

~~~
shadowtree
Most of Europe has suspended all domestic flights.

Why do you think this stupid? Why would the same not be necessary in a country
of 300m people?

You're not visiting anyone outside of your state in April. Start being calm
about it now.

~~~
rsanek
> Most of Europe has suspended all domestic flights

As far as I can tell, this is untrue. Many countries have placed restrictions
on _international_ travel, but few have closed airports completely.

Details available here: [https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-travel-
restricti...](https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-travel-
restrictions.html)

~~~
shadowtree
The equivalent of a flight from Austria/Vienna to Germany.Berlin is a flight
from Georgia/Atlanta to Massachusetts/Boston.

Vienna to Berlin is 425miles, same language, same currency.

You can't fly from Vienna to Berlin right now. You can't take a train from
Vienna to Berlin right now. You can't drive from Vienna to Berlin right now.
You can't walk from Vienna to Berlin right now.

Germany has closed its borders.

Atlanta to Boston is 1025 miles, same language, same currency.

------
jMyles
Are any well-informed researchers recommending this level of lockdown? At
least some experts, including CIDRAP, are opposed to closing schools, let
alone locking people down. Is anyone seriously considering and commenting on
the damage this policy will do to vulnerable populations?

This seemingly solid paper[0], published in the Journal of Medical Virology,
shows Vitamin D to be an important intervention. And obviously fresh air and
sun are generally important for health and well-being.

These steps seem uninformed, authoritarian, and wrong-headed.

0:
[https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25707](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25707)

~~~
ikiris
No they think this is to little to late, we should have done this massively a
week or more ago. Your comment reeks of uninformed, cherry picked to fit your
world view, drivel.

~~~
jMyles
Who is "they"? I linked a page full of papers, curated and updated daily, from
peer-reviewed journals, by experts in infectious diseases. Can you do the
same?

------
avalys
Insane that this is happening without federal coordination.

The text of the order itself is not available. I hope it is not as poorly
thought out as the article suggests. What about home maintenance providers -
plumbers and electricians? Surely they must be allowed to perform essential
services. Delivery personnel - can I still order things from Amazon? What if I
need medical supplies or equipment that is not available from a local
provider, who will deliver it?

~~~
tathougies
> Insane that this is happening without federal coordination.

Um... it's good. States have more powers than the federal government, being
the primary sovereign entities in the united states of america.

Also, most of the united states (and most states of the united states) are not
affected the way the west coast and new england are.

~~~
dnautics
minor nitpick, "being the primary sovereign entities" is _de jure_. _De facto_
, the primary sovereign entity has become the federal government.

That said I completely agree that it's a wonderful thing that these things are
happening at the local (not even state) level. That's the most sensible thing,
really.

Other things, like disease spread tracking, should probably happen at the
federal level. But absent a missing amendment that I don't know about legally
(A pity, the framers didn't know about disease theory) there's no clear
mandate for that, which contributes to the ambiguity of what the feds should
or shouldn't do about this, which becomes a matter of judgement, and there are
certainly pros and cons to both stances.

~~~
tathougies
Sure, but the states still have the power to do way more than uncle sam
without much oversight. They should exercise it at times like these. Moreover,
as I stated, this is only at crisis levels in some parts of the country. Local
action could have prevented a bigger outbreak overall. Some states are taking
much more preemptive action and will be better off because of it, like Ohio.

------
spaginal
Color me skeptical with the absolute necessity of this.

More and more I’m beginning to feel like these measures are being done to
destroy small businesses while the local governments know they can simply beg
for money from federal after the smoke clears.

The timing and severity of these measures seems all too convenient in light of
the huge money grab federal bill moving through the senate at this point.

~~~
sink
It's fairly easy to reason about the factors that go into the spread of the
disease. We have diligent data from Japan, Korea, Spain, and Italy. All show
infection curves with very similar shapes along the same timelines. What's
more, we can see how quarantining measures have benefited Japan and Korea. Not
to mention that the spread of infectious diseases, especially the flu, has
been studying quite heavily with modern scientific methods for over a century.

It is far more likely that these measures are being taken because they have
been proven effective to prevent harm to citizens, than as a conspiracy to
destroy small businesses.

This disease is both very infectious and relatively very deadly. We know that
the death rate can double or triple if emergency health care is not available.
We also know that without dramatic quarantining measures, the number of people
requiring emergency care will overwhelm our health care capacity.

I am a San Francisco resident, and I am grateful that my local government is
taking action. I agree with Mayor Breed's assessment that the federal
government's response is terrible.

~~~
nostromo
Korea is not using quarantine unless you have the infection or have been in
contact with someone who does.

They also have had the best results of any country to date.

~~~
jedberg
They also are testing anyone who wants a test for free. And if someone tests
positive, they are using cell phone location records to contact everyone you
may have been near while you were infected to come in and get a free test.

