

Nokia's Burning Ship Strategy - strandev
http://www.asymco.com/2011/02/21/nokias-burning-ships-strategy/

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jdap
I don't think this piece has taken into account the fact that Nokia isn't
jumping onto the "ice cold" Windows Phone right now, but a software iteration
downstream.

It looks to me as though Elop has taken the decision that the best chance
Nokia has to leverage the assets it has created in its own historic portfolio
is through a credible platform it can (at least partly) steer.

The multi-platform guys haven't gone all out for WP7 - why would they? And
operators have been tentative. Nokia's arrival in this space is huge for the
platform, and huge for mobile network operators all over the planet.

But what's also huge is the risk. Apple's doing OK, but Android is
snowballing. 2012 is very, very late to get in to the smartphone 2.0 party.

~~~
fraserharris
It's not "very, very late" when you consider that only 1 in 4 American's own a
smartphone [1]. The 75% that still own dumbphones are the majority & laggard
adopters, who likely make cellphone purchasing decisions in store. The Nokia
brand still engenders some goodwill and WP7 is reputably a decent platform.
Never mind that Nokia has overwhelming market share in Asia, Africa and South
America [2].

[1] [http://www.comscoredatamine.com/2010/09/u-smartphone-
penetra...](http://www.comscoredatamine.com/2010/09/u-smartphone-penetration/)
[2] [http://www.muniwireless.com/2011/02/14/apple-dominates-eu-
an...](http://www.muniwireless.com/2011/02/14/apple-dominates-eu-and-us-nokia-
rules-rest-of-the-world/)

~~~
jdap
The eye-opener to me, visiting Mobile World Congress, was that it's fully
plausible that smartphones can hit 80% of developed world phone shipments in
2-3 years.

I'd have laughed in anyone's face who'd suggested that a year ago. But the
economics of volume have kicked in big time, and the marginal production cost
difference has shrunk while the cost and risk of designing the next
featurephone keeps going up.

2011 is volume build year. Nobody expects that Apple can retain its market
share. Android needs to be smoothed out a lot, but with the breadth and depth
of OEM commitment that will happen this year.

Nokia is banking on the cellphone industry moving slowly as it tends to do.
Consumers may move faster.

