
The Curve Is Not Flat Enough - pmoriarty
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-forcing-american-hospitals-ration-care/609004/
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ckdarby
> Those who might end up in a hospital, which is to say all of us

Unnecessary fear setting. Not even close to all of us will need to go to the
hospital at all.

Example, last time I looked at the stats, 20-40 had 0.2-0.4% chance of being
critically ill from covid19.

~~~
paulryanrogers
> Example, last time I looked at the stats, 20-40 had 0.2-0.4% chance of being
> critically ill from covid19.

Source? Because I think you'd need a lot more testing to say for sure, at
least in the US

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ckdarby
[https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#case-fatality-rate-
of...](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#case-fatality-rate-of-
covid-19-by-age)

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ehacke
For decades large portions of the US population have prided themselves on
ignoring whatever the government says. Until the bodies start piling up in
their own town, people will not take it seriously, and possibly not even then.

~~~
dntbnmpls
> For decades large portions of the US population have prided themselves on
> ignoring whatever the government says.

The fault lies where? The government/state that has lied about pretty much
everything or the people who have been lied to?

The amount of "believe government", "trust government", "obey government"
throughout social media makes me wonder. Not to mention all the messaging
about compliance. Even more astounding coming from someone who has "hack" in
their username.

Also, "ignoring the government" to some degree and "civil disobedience" is
part of being american. It's what separates the US from Britain, EU, China,
etc.

~~~
credit_guy
Just to add to your point, the Surgeon General recently advised "don't wear
masks". I personally disobey this every time I step out of my apartment. And
I'm proud of that.

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nostromo
It’s actually too flat in Seattle.

We’ve flatlined at about 100 new cases a day. At that rate, we won’t get heard
immunity for many decades.

If we raise quarantine in May it’ll just start spreading again, and we’ll have
kicked the can down the road.

I think we should start considering letting young, healthy people return to
public spaces, should they so desire.

~~~
eBombzor
What? Why don't we not risk another wave by letting people out and instead
just wait for a vaccine before completely resuming normality. Less people die
this way.

~~~
zamadatix
12-18 months of quarantine has both a direct and indirect cost to life as
well. For the indirect - shutting everything down for a couple of weeks has
already created ENORMOUS financial stress for millions now out of work. Many
of these people don't have a month of savings left for bills let alone 18
months (which is beyond the recommended runway to have in savings for those
already better off) and society isn't prepared to pickup the cost for them
either.

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DeonPenny
WHats this flattening point. I keep doing the graph but anyone know what they
are using for ICUs that would even flatten the curve and the delta we are
missing it by? Its just seems like so blanketed that it seems like its damn if
we do damn if we don't

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eBombzor
Doesn't it vary highly on the location and its surrounding population density?
That's probably why it's so vague. But why does it matter? Exponential growth
can reach extremely high numbers in short iterations. Maybe a smaller hospital
in Ney Jersey will be overwhelmed a few days before a larger hospital in New
York would be.

~~~
DeonPenny
Because we can figure out the rate and inform people how much distancing they
can do. I don't think this is tenable. IN SF, for example, April 7th is the
date restaurants/bar are all openings again. This city is filled with smart
people, but its very apparent if a max rate of daily interaction is shown
people will start to ignore it. Honestly, they already are.

