

Apple Reports Q4 Results, $108B in annual revenue, $26B in earnings - acak
http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2011/10/18Apple-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-Results.html

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mpakes
To me, the biggest news here is the 1QFY12 guidance of $37 billion. Guidance
of 30% above their best recorded quarter ever. Wow.

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jcdavis
Yes, a monster guidance. And remember this is Apple's estimate, which is has
always been a lowball recently (even for this quarter, which was a little
disappointing). $40B is definitely possible.

Certainly the iPhone sales this quarter weren't that great, but given the
circumstances (most people knew the 4s/5 was coming), as well the 4s sold 4
million units on its opening weekend (almost 1/4th of all of last quarter's
sales), I don't think it was that bad at all.

Obvious disclaimer: long AAPL, may buy more tomorrow

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kprobst
Lowballing quarterly earnings seems to have been a Jobs thing. With Cook on
the saddle I'm guessing this will be the pattern going forward.

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DavidSJ
The headline could plausibly, and amusingly, be: "Apple Disappoints With 52%
Year Over Year Profit Growth"

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lefthem
Note that apple, which has >50% YoY growth, is trading about about 16.5 P/E
(ttm). Stock dropped about 6% after hours. As a point of reference, Yahoo also
announced results ( revenues down 5% YoY), has a P/E of 17.5, and it's stock
ROSE after-hours. Boggles the mind.

~~~
apaprocki
I'm not convinced the stock shift is fully explained by "missed estimates" as
you notice here. The highest open interest was piled into the ~390 puts for
most of the day and look where the stock wound up. This is relevant because
the monthly options all expire on Friday. Earnings hasn't happened before
options expiration in a while so there could be a lot of institutional play in
the market to zero in a particular price to prevent options exposure in both
calls/puts. Keep in mind only 0.95% of AAPL stock is owned by individuals[1].

[1] Checked holdings on a Bloomberg earlier out of curiosity.

EDIT: Some related theory:

[http://www.aaplpain.com/Site/Home/Entries/2011/10/18_Apple_O...](http://www.aaplpain.com/Site/Home/Entries/2011/10/18_Apple_Option_Pain__Step_1__Acceptance.html)

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Jayasimhan
Apple missed streets expectations. Please sell your stocks... so I can buy :)

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37prime
Anything Apple does these days always disappoint analysts. Well, most analysts
are overpaid for what they do anyway.

Financial Analysts has been underestimating Apple since 2004. This time
they're pumping up the expectations.

Overall it is still a spectacular Quarter for Apple.

~~~
seven_stones
I just read about how the stock tumbled because the results were less than
expected.

"Highest September Quarter Revenue and Earnings Ever" and it's a
disappointment.

This is like the market equivalent of "eh, her knees are too pointy".

Scumbag stock market. Why not forget IPOs and stay private?

~~~
function_seven
The reason the stock fell is because the expected results were built into the
price. So when the numbers didn't meet the market's expectations, the price
adjusted accordingly.

The expectations have nothing to do with where they were last year. Rather,
they're built on forecasts of how the market (and Apple) think they _will_ do
in the future.

~~~
seven_stones
As already mentioned in this thread, expectations of how it WILL do for this
quarter are astronomical. Sales numbers that are already in back this up.

Also see here: <http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3128143>

So, no, this shift is _not_ explained by how anyone thinks Apple will do in
the near future.

~~~
function_seven
Good link. I'm not sophisticated enough to consider those aspects. I was
really only referring to the spectre of beating YoY numbers by %50, and it
still being considered "below expectations"

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krobertson
I am curious if the expectations had taken into account the slipped release.
There is probably no doubt the slipped release hurt them, but typically, the
new iPhone comes out June/July and probably fuels a large portion of their Q4.
With the 4S just coming out, it will fuel their Q1 instead.

Additionally, if they did try to account for the late release, they probably
had more people than expected holding off for the new phone. That could prove
beneficial in Q1. Most of the articles call out that the dip in expectations
will likely be short lived, pointing to the sales in the first days of the
release.

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buckwild
The price seems to be dropping. $422.24 at close today and $393.74 after hours
(@3pm pacific 10/18/2011)...

[http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:AAPL](http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:AAPL)

~~~
forrestthewoods
Analyst expectations missed. <http://www.cnbc.com/id/44908357> Seems likely
due to iPhone 4S shipping later than their normal cycle? That'd also be why
guidance for the next quarter is so high I imagine?

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mikeryan
Apple always lowballs guidance (note Apple beat its own guidance by about 2B I
believe) so its up to the street to set their own view of what Apple should be
making (on top of Apple's estimations). Of course they're just guessing based
on past results so its way less accurate.

Its a bit of Apple's fault however. They're noted for low balling revenue
guidance which is why the street likes to tack a few billion on whatever Apple
says.

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phil
Gross margin was down 1.5% over last quarter. Anyone want to guess what lower
margin products they sold more of?

I'd guess Macbook Airs, but there are certainly other contenders.

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chugger
You don't compare numbers against the previous quarter, you compare numbers
against the same quarter, the previous year.

Apple's gross margin this quarter was 40.3 percent, compared to 36.9 percent
in the year-ago quarter

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phil
That's true of revenue, but as far as I know there's not as much annual
cyclicity for margins.

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DrJokepu
I don't know much about consumer product sales, but I wouldn't think that it's
entirely impossible that different products have somewhat different seasonal
sales patterns.

~~~
erikpukinskis
People buy lots of laptops in August/September for back to school. People buy
lots of iPods in December for gifts. People buy lots of iPhones in whatever
quarter they launch a new iPhone in.

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alexknight
I only have two words to say: Truly staggering.

