
Belarus’s Soviet Economy - JumpCrisscross
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-27/belarus-s-soviet-economy-has-worked-better-than-you-think
======
stevesimmons
I had my second trip to Minsk last week to work with a local IT company.

I was very impressed with the technical skills of the people there. Belarus
and Minsk are advanced in many ways (metro with trains every 2 minutes),
electric busses (powered by capacitors, not batteries), mobile phone (MTS shop
at the airport sells a $9 SIM with unlimited data for a month), Yandex taxis
beats Uber, etc, etc.

The main downside I noticed was meals based on meat and potatoes, not many
vegetables.

All in all, I now am curious to find out more about Belarus... Need to spend
some time learning basic Russian now!

~~~
l1g2d5
> The main downside I noticed was meals based on meat and potatoes, not many
> vegetables.

Do you realize where belarus is? It gets cold in belarus. Meat and potatoes
are food that can be grown locally. Also, it is environmentally devastating to
transport all the vegetables all over the world like we currently do. Look at
how much globalism has damaged the environment, not to mention the problems
with climate change.

More people should be eating their local "meat and potatoes" rather than a
globalized diet.

~~~
throwaway8941
I'm not sure why this comment is being downvoted. I live in Kazakhstan, and
while it's not exactly the same as Belarus, we're living in very similar
conditions. In winter time, fruits and vegetables are very expensive here.
Most of the cheaper ones (the only kind available to most people, myself
included) look and taste like they're made of plastic, and are packed with
nitrites. I tend to avoid them altogether, you don't get to have a very
healthy diet with this kind of food.

~~~
Scoundreller
> In winter time, fruits and vegetables are very expensive here. Most of the
> cheaper ones (the only kind available to most people, myself included) look
> and taste like they're made of plastic, and are packed with nitrites.

It's not much different in the "West". We already plant crops for yield, and
in winter, we eat crops grown for yield and shipability. Out-of-season crops
will cost substantially more than what cost in-season.

Though storage tech is improving:
[https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2018/11/26/668256349/th...](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2018/11/26/668256349/thanks-
to-science-you-can-eat-an-apple-every-day)

And thank god for bananas.

------
sparkling
I had the chance to visit Belarus last year for a extended period. The
capital, Minsk, is by far the cleanest and safest place i have seen anywhere.

Putting aside the human right issues, i think the president there has run the
country quite well given the circumstances and the post-soviet situation he
inherited. Mostly staying out of conflicts, keeping a balance between the big
brother to the east and the western European countries, growing the economy
(with a big IT sector). But - unlike e.g. Ukraine - all without the usual
post-soviet hard system change that displaces workers from the old soviet
state companies and social structures they relied on.

/edit: Jesus, why the downvotes?

~~~
roenxi
> Putting aside the human right issues...

I'm not sure that is a safe start to an argument that a country is well run.
When human rights get suppressed that means people lose the ability to, eg,
honestly complain about massive problems or take basic steps to improve their
standard of living. Growing an economy at the expense of human rights is kinda
stupid. What is the point of making people's lives materially better if the
government is simultaneously suppressing their ability live better lives?
Pointless and counterproductive busywork.

I can see how a country can be good and have human rights abuses at the same
time - most great countries are involved in human rights abuses to some degree
- but they can't just be hand-waved at the start. Being a nice place to visit
as a wealthy tourist hand having clean streets is not a high bar.

You also inspired me to go and have a look at
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_Belarus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_Belarus)
. I wasn't impressed to read that they have laws where a "change of job and
living location will require permission from governors [for 9% of the
workforce]". I would call that catastrophically poor management of the economy
bordering on actual slavery. So either Wikipedia is misleading me or they are
not quite well run.

~~~
account73466
>> I wasn't impressed to read that they have laws where a "change of job and
living location will require permission from governors [for 9% of the
workforce]".

Do they have such laws or you believe that a proposed law (according to the
cited articled) is an existing law already? You seem to quickly go and claim
border-line slavery without checking it first.

~~~
SpicyLemonZest
Belarus is a dictatorship. If Lukashenko says “this should happen, I’m gonna
make it happen”, I think it’s reasonable to interpret that as a proclamation
of a new law unless there’s evidence it’s not being followed.

------
playing_colours
In the beginning of 1990s, Belarus had more potential than Poland and Baltic
states to become a strong prosperous democracy - it was a centre of
electronics in USSR, had very good universities with mathematics, physics,
electronics, engineering. It had developed textile industry, built heavy
carriers, tractors.

Sure, they needed innovations, market thinking, and transparent controlled
privatization, but there were hope and enthusiasm in the beginning of 1990s.

My opinion, Russian influence killed it eventually - they helped Lukashenko to
stay in power in 1996 and made the country dependent on Russian markets, oil,
gas, money - and Lukashenko spent all the money on economically ineffective
government projects, lost investors, kept inefficient model. The rigid,
indecisive, and toothless politics of the EU toward Lukashenko did not help
either. In a short perspective, it may look morally wrong to work and
cooperate with “Last Dictatorship”, but politics is a long game of planting
seeds and growing influence, small wins, and changing minds - such strategic
thinking is unfortunately beyond and above our bureaucrats.

Now the country is basically lost and hopeless. Do not be under the spell of
its software industry and some improvements in Minsk - it is a tiny part of
the picture.

Young and active leave the country. More than half of people who studies CS,
physics, or applied maths from my generation (30-35+) live in Europe, US,
Australia. State medicine is poor - medical professionals just run away from
the country. Construction workers, trade professionals leave for Russia,
Poland, Baltic States. I learnt from my connections there that many bright
young people learn German, English, Polish, or Czech to go study after school
abroad and then stay there, no plan B to stay in Belarus. They see no future
in country.

Recently, it got even worse: first, Belarusian military pushed for stricter
draft rules, and, second, Russia has successfully pushed for further
integration. It leads to even more migration of the young and educated, plus
people living abroad drop their citizenship for a new one - few are excited to
find themselves one day a subject of Russian Federation.

~~~
gdy
"made the country dependent on Russian markets, oil, gas, money"

How exactly did they do it? It's not like with different president Belarus
wouldn't need all that.

You need to take responsibility for your country instead of blaming Russia and
emigrating.

~~~
qualmer
I can see Russian trolls have infiltrated HN as well. They are abundant in my
country's (Lithuania) news sites, but didn't really expect to find any here.
Oh well, at least visitors of this site can see right through the utter
nonsense you guys put out.

~~~
gdy
Says an account created 4 months ago to an account created in 2012.

------
daniel-cussen
Does anyone else find the pictures of tractor engines hypnotizing? It's a
total antithesis of American or Chinese-for-American manufacturing, where
everything is maximal or minimal. Instead everything is "reasonable", a
reasonable cost, a reasonable engine efficiency, a design that makes simple
sense, parts that aren't optimized to the micron in order to save
plastic...it's so refreshing to look at the inside of a mass-market machine
that doesn't look over-optimized.

~~~
CapricornNoble
My opinion: It's the Soviet engineering mentality, forged during WW2, and
honed during the Cold War. From more than a few sources I've read, the Soviets
basically optimized their country from top to bottom to fight and win a
nuclear war, and that included manufacturing equipment that was considered
highly durable, and easy to repair in harsh weather conditions (up to and
including post-nuclear ones).

But hardware that is over-optimized for the worst-case scenario ended up
highly inefficient during normal peacetime operations, hence their economy was
hugely underperforming. I suspect the Soviet economy would have proven
surprisingly robust in another total war .....fortunately we didn't find out.

~~~
iguy
Yes, it seems to me that they really thought they would fight that war.

At the tractor-engineering level, isn't it partly that they didn't iterate
many times? What Ford was making in the 50s was not so different. But they
junked the whole factory several times since then, or rather were forced to do
so by competitors... it's easy to see how hard it would be to persuade even a
well-meaning bureaucrat that you want to close down and replace a factory
whose tractors worked just fine last year.

I have read (but am not completely sure) that every factory had a second
purpose ready to go, e.g. your tractor factory had the tank blueprints ready,
and made sure their machines could work for both. If true this must have been
another enormous incentive not to change... if your plan for switching to
lighter more fuel-efficient tractors means you can't make all the tank
components you were supposed to, then you aren't going to get permission.

------
netcan
We're now a full generation since the west "won the cold war" and I think it's
just now that our "wartime" mentalities we're ready to think past simple
binary communism-x-capitalism binaries.

For example, "privatisation." In Russia & parts of the west, privatisation was
a major 90s policy.

But like everything else, details can outweigh labels. One privatisation is
not like another.

There's a massive difference between encouraging/allowing entrepreneurship, &
"selling" state sectors to "private" owners.

I use scare quotes there because the "sales" were generally paid for with
state-backed loans and the "private" owners are either multinationals or
"oligarchs" as we now know the "private" Russian buyers.

The former is closer to a capitalist ideal, but doesn't affect the "key
industries, at least not fast. The latter is instant, but it also involves
something approximating giving away a state's wealth for free.

One big hindsight problem Soviet privatisation encountered is a running theme
in modern "capitalism:" the failure/inability of states to get value for/from
it's owned assets & wealth.

Neither western economies, Soviet ones or post-soviet ones have a tool in
their toolbox for this. Norway's oil fund might be the one exception.

~~~
TazeTSchnitzel
Privatisations are disasters because they are designed to be. Its proponents
want to see the state fail.

------
barry-cotter
The article talks about Belarus’ low levels of economic inequality, its Soviet
past and the continuing heavy hand of the state and the KGB but it fails to
connect them. I would be shocked if government employees don’t have a far
higher standard of living than their pay packages would suggest. This is a
less severe case of the problem with using Communist era statistics on income
to track inequality as if they’re equivalent to the “same” measurements in the
post Communist era. If access is more important than money and you measure
money things can be very unequal and you’ll have no idea by looking at the
statistics.

~~~
sparkling
Agreed. Many government workers and state company employees in Belarus receive
different forms on non-monetary compensation. Subsidized apartments etc.,
although these benefits things are slowly going away.

------
rayiner
The former soviet states are a great natural experiment in economics.
Countries that liberalized their economies, like Estonia, Lithuania, Czech
Republic, and Latvia (the "mostly free" countries here:
[https://www.heritage.org/index/ranking](https://www.heritage.org/index/ranking))
have grown much faster than countries that retained socialism and central
planning, like Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova. See:
[https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/aug/17/ussr-s...](https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/aug/17/ussr-
soviet-countries-data). Remarkably, much of the economic growth came before
Estonia, Lithuania, (Czechkia and Slovakia), and Latvia joined the EU. Indeed,
their democratic and economic reforms, along with corresponding growth, paved
the way for EU membership.

~~~
scottlocklin
Ukraine liberalized its economy and it pretty much destroyed the place.

The whole GDP growth fetish is a lot of horse shit; some measure needs to be
taken that the increase in GDP doesn't destroy the lives of some large swathe
of the population like it did in Russia. Belarus may be led by a repressive
dictator, but the fact that it didn't experience the absurd declines in life
expectancy and quality of life in the 90s that Russia did will keep him
popular, even if they do have to pay more for oil.

~~~
rayiner
Ukraine is listed as “mostly unfree” in the listing above, so no.

~~~
EGreg
Ok so let’s look at the countries highest on the Economic Freedom index.

Hong Kong tops the list right? It has what you would expect...

Capital has flowed in and normally that would have pushed blue collar workers
and children and elderly out, with people commuting 2 hours each way as in SF.
But since these are islands, the poor live in coffin like shoebox apartments,
far smaller than anything allowed in US cities. Millions form entire
communities of poverty around there, raise children there etc.

How large an effect are we talking? 20% of Hong Kong is below the poverty
line. I did the math and any four people below the poverty line cannot
together afford a studio apartment in normal areas of Hong Kong.

Hong Kong has had to aggressively increase its welfare and safety nets. It has
over 40 public hospitals and 20 private ones.

Suffice it to say that around the world, government-run and single-payer
healthcare and schooling has been compatible with high scores on economic
freedom. It’s only in the USA do we have this ridiculous fearmongering about
that.

Hong Kong has, in many measures, a very strong safety net and strong public
sector. Ditto for Singapore etc. And larger countries in Scandinavia, and
Canada and Australia etc. are similar.

Much of the centrally coordinated infrastructure investment has paid off - in
the US we had the interstate highway system, China lifted more people out of
poverty in 20 years through centrally planned “ghost cities” than any place on
Earth ever, and the USSR did a great job of increasing literacy, electricity,
bringing universities, rights to women and minorities, to countries like
Uzbekistan and that whole region. Child mortality declined greatly, as people
got better access to healthcare.

Not to say that everything is black and white, but “economic freedom” and
capitalism isn’t the only way science and technology and prosperity moves
forward.

~~~
NicoJuicy
China hasn't fixed poverty though. A lot of migrant workers are left out in
pensions, getting as low as 80$ per month.

Moving to those ghost cities have wrecked an entire generation, as it seems.

Moving people out of poverty includes the pension challenge. Which is the
hardest one and I'm pretty sure that the one-child policy didn't contribute
well to that part.

~~~
EGreg
No doubt about it, getting off the addiction to the pyramid for social
security will require a lot of automation (Japan is dealing with this now).
But it’s the only sustainable way forward.

Look, China may not have eradicated poverty but certainly it was able to make
the average wages go up 5x a decade for 20 years. Could this be done by
uncoordinated market activity of private actors? Perhaps, but the USA has
never been able to pull it off so fast.

Now one can argue the US always had a far higher starting point so it ran into
diminishing returns. And that is a fair argument.

But keep in mind USSR’s GDP grew faster than USA and they faced the aftermath
of two world wars, lost 30 million people and also subsidized lots of other
countries in the Warsaw Pact (their version of the Marshall Plan). Compare
apples to apples, eg the GDP of Romania after it joined the Eastern Bloc vs
Hawaii after it was annexed as the 50th state of the US. Or compare GDP growth
of Georgia and Puerto Rico.

It’s not actually clear which system led to more economic prosperity, and as I
said the USA had the advantage of oceans protecting it, the dollar was the
reserve currency all around the world after Bretton Woods, and we could import
cheap goods all year long by just printing dollars. That has a massive effect
on prosperity.

~~~
SamReidHughes
China's growth was the result of uncoordinated market activity of private
actors. They switched systems.

I don't think Romania and Hawaii form an apples-to-apples comparison.

Romania: a country in Europe, occupied by the Soviets after World War II, with
16 million people. Neighbors Hungary, Yugoslavia, Ukraine, and the Black Sea.

Hawaii: a U.S. territory for half a century, with 620 thousand people. Noted
for its proximity to Johnston atoll (825 miles from Honolulu), Midway Island
(1311 miles), and San Francisco (2393 miles).

~~~
EGreg
What would you say is an Apples-to-Apples comparison?

And with China, I don’t think it is at all accurate to say that the millions
of miles of new roads, bridges, infrastructure, ghost cities etc. were built
because private market actors woke up one day and decided to make massive
infra investments. It was central planning. And a lot of the science, electric
vehicles etc. is sponsored by govt too, that is why China is the world leader.

~~~
SamReidHughes
If you're talking about roads and bridges, that's all we need to hear. You're
constructing a strawman.

~~~
EGreg
All the infrastructure including entire cities. Why is it a strawman

~~~
SamReidHughes
China's ghost cities were privately developed.

Edit: A better example for you would be Singapore, with its history of public
housing, which gets privately owned (or 99-year-leased). They also have public
roads.

~~~
EGreg
Can you please back up your assertion with sources? Here is the opposite of
what you said:

 _Developers acquire new plots of land from local governments and are mandated
to construct something more or less immediately.[10] Developers can 't sit
idly on vacant land and wait for the surrounding area to develop until it's
economically viable.[10] This creates the quick-buck mentality in developers
to rapidly build in the new area without the necessary demand for
housing.[10]_

 _" The cities are product of plan-driven economy that many cities are not
expected to be complete or vibrant after 15 years of construction."_
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Under-
occupied_developments_in...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Under-
occupied_developments_in_China)

~~~
SamReidHughes
You literally backed it up for me.

~~~
EGreg
I backed up pretty much the opposite of what you said. Massive government
involvement setting the rules and mandates for developers who take the
project.

------
Ericson2314
If the main leverage is oil more than export markets, it would be awesome they
can tangle some sort of big environmental deal with the EU to up their
negotiating position.

Putting aside the realpolitik, after the west completely bungled the post-
soviet transition just about everywhere else in a fit of market-worshiping
obliviousness, I'd say they owe it.

------
RyJones
[https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/europe-s-last-
soviet...](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/europe-s-last-soviet-
economy-approaches-its-hour-of-reckoning/ar-BBXouy6?ocid=ob-tw-enus-677)

------
shmerl
_> Glaz also pushed back against the whole concept of Russian subsidies,
arguing that Moscow is obliged to sell energy to Belarusian companies at the
same price as to Russian ones under the integrated market rules of the
Eurasian Economic Union, to which both countries belong._

Russian mafia run by Putin sees "Eurasian Economic Union" as a source of money
for their thief pool (obtshak). I.e. it's designed for the sole purpose of
extracting resources from those territories. It's not built to give anything
back to the people in the participating states, except for collaborationists
which sell off their countries to that mafia. So joining it is clearly a
damaging idea for any state, and only happens due to corruption of the local
government.

------
democracy
The people of Belarus know they don't live in democracy while the citizens of
many other countries think they do.

------
m0zg
>> Rolled over through the centuries with Moscow's wars with other parts of
Europe

What a profoundly backward perspective. It's the other way around. Belarus was
a part of the Russian Empire. So much a part of it, in fact, that the long
form of the title of the Russian monarch contained its name. You can't "roll
over" something you already own. It wasn't Russia's wars with European states
that repeatedly fucked up Belarus. It was Europe's wars with Russia. Napoleon
and Hitler were two notable examples - both defeated, but both rolled through
Belarus first, killing and raping everything that moved.

~~~
pound
It was only temporary part of russian empire (for about a century), with every
attempt to fight it drowned in blood. During that time russia tried to
exterminate any self-identity, forbidding to even have a name and calling it
"north-western area". To get an idea of what was happening in that region
historically you may read about Great Duchy of Lithuania

Another point to consider: much of the Rus (Ruth) that russia claims to be
descendent of is modern Ukraine and Belarus lands, and historically they were
figthing most of the time with moscow armies.

~~~
konart
>Another point to consider: much of the Rus (Ruth) that russia claims to be
descendent of is modern Ukraine and Belarus lands, and historically they were
figthing most of the time with moscow armies.

Russia claims to be descendent of many things, from vikings to Byzantine
Empire, from slavic tribes to mongols. Russia is a mix of many things, where
Kiev and Kievan Rus is just one of the main starting points. Not to mention
that Kiev became the capital only ofter Oleg captured it after leaving
Novgorod. Not to mention that any fights between Moscow and whatever entity
you are talking about have happened centuries later.

And even if we are talking about geography only:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus%27#/media/File:Prin...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus%27#/media/File:Principalities_of_Kievan_Rus'_\(1054-1132\).jpg)

here is the map of the Kievan Rus (1054-1132). Lands of the modern Ukraine and
Belarus take less than a half of the territories as can be clearly seen. Even
considering that this is a 'flat' map.

~~~
pound
russia is indeed big so I will not make broad generalizations, but I've never
met any russians who would claim vikings, byzantines or mongols as someone
russia has originated from (for many mongols is a conflictive/sensitive topic
though, but not in an acceptive way). I'm looking at dominating there slavic
'Rus' history view.

~~~
konart
Well, those are historical facts. Not sure about the russians you've met, but
they surely have read about
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_route_from_the_Varangian...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_route_from_the_Varangians_to_the_Greeks)
at least. Not to mention
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rurik_dynasty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rurik_dynasty)

And you can't really have any talk about Russian state over here without
mentioning that 'Russia is still a Byzantine Empire descendant'. Even
newspapers usualy mention that:
[https://www.gazeta.ru/comments/2016/05/30_e_8271917.shtml](https://www.gazeta.ru/comments/2016/05/30_e_8271917.shtml)
(in russian, obviously)

Anyway, this topic has lots of material if one is interested.

------
based2
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maps.me](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maps.me)
[https://maps.me/](https://maps.me/)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_of_Tanks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_of_Tanks)

------
aurizon
Russia is in decline due to the same reasons the USSR declined and fell. The
costs of communist oligarchs taking the products of their 'slaves' and wasting
them on assorted diseconomies with not enough production feedback. There is a
joke where Ivan says to Modred in Mpscow, "you know that after the next 5 year
plan we will all have our own personal aircraft?", Modred then says
"Excellent, if we hear they have matches (or toilet paper) in Vladivostok, we
can fly there and be first in line!). Now Putin has imposed a from of the same
system that 'overtaxes' by kleptocratic means essentially all the growth the
current free 'slaves' create. Thus the amount of work product (money, stuff
etc) each of these 'slaves' has at their disposal decreases every year. This
is well documented in unofficially reported economic aspects of life. The
reported ones are glorious. Military expenditure is essentially a complete
waste of money, as it is in the USA, however the USA bears it more easily from
it's far far larger base. China is the bear in tha dark that China is readying
it's military for - they have nothing to fear from the USA but fear itself.
China fears the assembled warheads Russia has - against which it has no
defence. Sure it can bomb Russia back, but Russia has it's nor-so-secret
cobalt
submarines.[https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a24216/pen...](https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a24216/pentagon-
confirm-russia-submarine-nuke/) a few dozen of these could devastate and
dender into death zones for 100 years large swathes of China. This will make
China think twice about expanding into the Russian far East. Russia has a
population in serious decline. Only the Moslem areas are growing. Other
Russians are in a devastating decline
[https://www.fairplanet.org/story/simply-math-no-russians-
by-...](https://www.fairplanet.org/story/simply-math-no-russians-by-2200/), So
why does Putin not change? He has the classic Tiger by the tail problem. He
and his fellow oligarchs have beggared the Russian economy - how does he
unbeggar it? He can not. He can only hand on until he is inevitably devoured
by the tiger - or his own friends when he tries to rein them in!

------
getaclue
ah home sweet home

------
alexgrakov
Hi guys, I'm from Belarus, co-own a software development company in
HighTechPark in Minsk and would like to drop my "five pennies" here.

First of all, as we all live in diff countries, we have diff perception of
what is good or bad.

Moreover, we are live in humanism-driven era, that means that "there is no
authority expcept of me and my feelings".

In Middle Ages God and Priest told you want to do and what is beautiful, good
or bad.

In Socialism, Nationalism or Communism the Ruling Party told you what to do.

In Liberalism and more democratic countries Capitalism and MNC (Multinational
corporations) gaining more power and "providing the offer you can not refuse".

Whereas in Middle Ages there was no growth, now everyone is obsessed with
growth. And we would know the answer "who was right" only after we would come
into a lack of resources and an ecological disaster due to consumption rates.

So, as I'm not an authority for you, just focus on your feelings when you read
the text below.

I would say, that Belarus lives in autocrasy, rather dictatorship. The
President doesn't tell everyone what to do. We all have a freedom of choice,
can study, learn foreign languages and go abroad.

Many people did that, doing that and will be doing that. The country is facing
a challenge how to solve that question.

Singapore's advice would be: bring more investors to the country to build
enterprizes. There are issues with that. Same time, there opened "The Great
Stone" project, where you can invest $500K into a manufacturing enterprize and
get many tax exemptions for many years (terms are very attractive and
competitive in World). You would get access to low-cost workforce and get
profits.

Could be better? Yes. Could be worse? Yes. Can we improve? Yes.

ICT industry is one of the growth drivers and magnets retaining some of young
people from moving abroad.

President's decree #8 prolonged preferences for HighTechPark (HTP) until 2049,
gave legislation to cryptocurrency ventures (although there is only one
cryptocurrency exchange so far) and let our companies buy ads, hosting and
other digital services from abroad without paying 35% tax on top.

3 years ago there were 160 companies in HTP, whereas now ±600. IT sector is
booming.

Not only as R&D or devcenters as in other ex-USSR countries, but also product-
based companies and startups.

We have some remarkable stories:

1) Apalon (acquired by IAC) was in #10 in the World by downloads in
AppleStore.

2) Mobile Games made in Belarus were downloaded 3 500 000 000 (3.5bln) times.
That is not only Wargaming. We have plenty of other games studios (including
our own subsidiary).

3) EPAM (10bln evaluation)

4) Wargaming (was mentioned above)

5) exp(capital) and a group of its companies have a turnover of $2bln (yes,
billion per month) according to it's owner Victor Prokopenya.

6) There is a good food brand: Santa Fish and Santa Bremor with a 1bln
turnover per year (they produce products from salmon, $1bln also includes
another milk brand "Savushkin")

7) Viber (acq by Rakuten), PandaDoc, Maps.me (acq. by Mail.ru), MSQRD (acq by
Facebook), AIMatter (acq by Google)

Total turnover of HTP companies would be $2bln+ this year (the initial
investment in HTP was $40K and a small cabinet with a table and a chair, not
millions like in Russia's Skolkovo gone astray).

I think for a country, which is only 27 years old these results are exceeding
all possible expectations.

In 2016 I did a research on local IT market, you can view it here:
[https://www.slideshare.net/alexgrakoff5/belarus-it-
outsourci...](https://www.slideshare.net/alexgrakoff5/belarus-it-outsourcing-
industry-2016)

Inspired by that research, EY did there own:
[https://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/ey-it-industry-
in-...](https://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/ey-it-industry-in-
belarus-2017-and-beyond/$FILE/ey-it-industry-in-belarus-2017-and-beyond.pdf)

The main limits of growth for my company is: we don't have a foreign office
and can't sell at a higher price at the moment and the speed of salary growth
in IT-industry. There is no President involved in that.

I would say, many businesses have benefits now because of a lower salaries
(for some period of time). And I can't imagine now hiring a sales in US for
$200K/year.

Btw, I think now it is more cost-efficient to have a Belarus company, owning a
US company to sell digital services. You would have to pay 1% income tax and
9% dividend tax.

Do you know many stories of successfully built countries from scratch without
"open source framework"? Singapore, and maybe a few others.

Do you think that US is only good with the maximum personal freedom?

As you have a freedom market, you get: \- constant growth of educational costs
\- constant growth of health insurance costs ($28k/y for a family) \- no
limits for mobile plans/TV plans (it can cost $100/m in NY and $200 for TV)

You can read more on that topic here: [https://eand.co/why-america-is-the-
worlds-first-poor-rich-co...](https://eand.co/why-america-is-the-worlds-first-
poor-rich-country-17f5a80e444a)

The cost of property is so high, that you have to work 20 or more years to
afford it if you are not a Googler.

The cost of US effectiveness is that one can easily get homeless. They say
"our society tends to support mistakes and getting bankcrupt". I've been in 10
countries during last year and never saw such amount of homeless people as in
San Francisco, California.

And it can take 7 to 10 years to rebuild your credit score:
[https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/credit-
education...](https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/credit-
education/improving-credit/improve-credit-score/)

Eventually, everything is quite complicated, but in general during last 10
years many positive changes happen and this is noticed by all people who come
to Belarus.

Our country has a big potential in many industries, not only IT, just not
everyone has the right knowledge to make profit on that potential.

------
lattice
There are much better (and almost viciously critical articles) written on the
subject even 5 years ago [1]

There were similar predictions in 2014

>"... Lukashenko does face problems. Russia is cutting its subsidies.

Belarus struggles to sell its outdated tractors and trucks in an age of global
competition. The economy is deteriorating. ...

Russia's President Putin could engineer Lukashenko's removal simply by
stopping subsidised oil and gas deliveries altogether. Belarus receives
roughly four times more Russian oil than it needs for domestic consumption,
refines the surplus and sells it on the open market for a profit. Putin must
be tempted. He loathes Lukashenko, who has cleverly played Russia off against
the EU over the past 20 years, reneged on promises to Moscow, and frustrated
Russian attempts to gain control of the Belarusian state gas company,
pipelines and refineries.

... " [1]

These predictions did not really turn out to be true in terms of regime change
or Venesuela-like horror.

There are very few countries in the world, that in the last 100 years
experienced what Belorussians did:

> ".. The Nazis killed more than two million Belarusians - a quarter of the
> population.. " [1]

> "... Chernobyl disaster of 1986, which contaminated a fifth of the country
> and millions of its people ..." [1]

In a way, it explains a bit of how people think there... Basically, as long as
it is not worst then before -- than we are ok. And one can see from above, the
'before' was really bad...

Belorussians are not going to revolt, if there is a forced change in
leadership, the transition will not be perfectly peaceful, but will not be
bloody, And it will only happen to a person that Putin is ok with.

Russian is pretty much 'the language' in that country, and really the affinity
to Russia goes far beyond the language. In way of political views/desire to
change -- Belorussian's are much milder than Russians'.

Comparing Belarus to Estonia or Lithuania, in terms of 'what-would-happen', I
think are wrong. Those republics received a lot of help from the West, and are
culturally (including language) were much more aligned with Finland/Norway.

Belarus would more likely compare to a land-locked countries like Armenia or
Albania.

Many who did not like the regime, immigrated to Germany. Lukashenko is not
holding anybody from leaving.

Law enforcement in Belarus is one of the highest paid government-paid jobs. So
state apparatus used to monitor opposition (but unlike in US, they do not need
to cheat FISA courts, those things are already 'built-in') Especially, when it
comes to foreign-sponsored opposition

"....

Organisers of the protest, linked to George Soros, called the march “Freedom
Day”, evoking the independent Belarus that lasted just six months after the
First World War, in 1918. They tried to march down one of the major streets in
Minsk, but were blocked by police who arrested them, along with journalists
covering the protest, Alexander Ponomarev told AP news agency.

..." [2]

In terms how Belarus is positioning itself in the worlds import/export markets

It is same way, as Politicians use their family members and charity
foundations to do money loundring and bribes.... Basically a mechanism to
avoid sanctions and laws...

[https://belsat.eu/en/news/mensk-patlumachyu-rost-ekspartu-
be...](https://belsat.eu/en/news/mensk-patlumachyu-rost-ekspartu-belaruskih-
kivi-i-papai/) >"... The fact that Belarus is supplying the Russian market
with the enormous amount of exotic tropical fruits cannot but sparked a
massive public outcry. Although the fruit isn’t grown in the Eastern European
country, the export of kiwis went up by 151%.

At the same time, the ban imposed by Russia clearly prohibits re-export, and
that is exactly what Belarus is suspected of by Moscow.

The Belarusian Prime Minister claims that the fruits supplied should not be
affected by sanctions.

..."

Same goes, probably for military equipment exports...

[1] [https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/belarus-
dictatorship-a...](https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/belarus-dictatorship-
alexander-lukashenko)

[2] [http://freewestmedia.com/2017/03/26/another-soros-colour-
rev...](http://freewestmedia.com/2017/03/26/another-soros-colour-revolution-
for-belarus/)

------
nabla9
Technically Belarus and Russia form the Union State of Russia and Belarus.

Some speculate that Putin might want to turn this paper union into reality
before his term ends and become president of the union. He would avoid neatly
term limits for Russian president.

[https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-rejects-putins-call-for-
unific...](https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-rejects-putins-call-for-unification-
with-russia/a-15295158)

~~~
sparkling
My guess: not going to happen. The vast majority of people in Belarus oppose a
state union with Russia. Also the president (Lukaschenko) has nothing to gain
from this. Surprisingly he has been very hesitant to give in to various
Russian demands, openly criticizing Putin at world stages and in the media.

~~~
nabla9
Since Russia is subsidizing Belarus, they can start tightening the screws on
Lukaschenko politically any time they want.

Belarus is just one military exercise away from Russians taking over. Every
time these countries have a big joint military exercise in Belarus there is
possibility that Russian troops might not leave when the exercise is over.

~~~
account73466
>> there is possibility that Russian troops might not leave when the exercise
is over.

Why they would do that? Unless you organize a pro-West revolution like in
Ukraine. It is possible but making people dirty poor and desperate can take a
decade like in the latter case.

~~~
john_minsk
That's what the article is about. Most big employers work for Russian market.
If Russia stops buying - Belarus doesn't have deep pockets to sustain for
years without trade. People most often live from paycheck to paycheck, so if
suddenly a lot of them lose their jobs - escalation will be quite rapid.

------
ekianjo
> At the plant’s health clinic, 560 doctors and staff use sleek Western
> equipment to provide care from routine checkups to surgery, including laser
> eyesight correction.

So they are showing off equipment produced by Capitalism? How does that work
to prove their point?

------
timwaagh
All this talk of how everyone is cared for feels so cozy. I can understand the
desire for tight knit community. Everybody working for the greater good of
all. Everybody equal, why should anyone dream of more? No one left behind
under leadership of the great Sacha. Sure there is KGB and repression but
nothing unnecessary.....

But the reality is that most humans are fundamentally competitive and
fundamentally awful creatures. Only thing they will do given all this is find
ways to beat the system to give themselves advantage over others.

Dear communism, it's not you, it's us.

~~~
CapricornNoble
>>>Dear communism, it's not you, it's us.

Any system that doesn't take into account the realities of the human condition
is about as practically-applicable as the Borg Collective. No amount of self-
loathing will change that, or solve our collective problems.

~~~
timwaagh
I hope you will change your tune in future. You're not wrong, but its still
bad.

------
AdrianB1
The first sign of lousy journalism is the chart of poverty with the $5.5/day
limit, like the cost of life is measured in dollars and it is the same across
the board. No, it is not, in some places $1 is the equivalent of more than $10
in other countries.

~~~
Swizec
Traditionally purchasing power parity dollars are used for comparisons across
countries. Would be nice if journalists specified but you can pretty much
assume that’s what their sources used

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_power_parity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_power_parity)

Otherwise, as you say, these comparisons are meaningless.

~~~
AdrianB1
No, it is not pretty much assumed because most readers are not experts in the
area to know about PPP; I double checked the article, there is no mention
about PPP in any form: bad journalism.

~~~
projektfu
There was in the chart of per capita GDP.

------
baybal2
You can't talk of Belarus now, and keep China out of the picture.

If people says that East Africa is China's 24th province, than Belarus would
be double of that.

