
Predictions.txt - philfreo
http://dcurt.is/predictions-txt
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captaincrunch
On my list from February, 2012 are:

\- Egypt's president will promise to protect all citizens

\- Tennis: Sharapova will rematch Lisicki

\- 346 homes will be destroyed in a fire in Colorado

\- Students who will bully a N.Y. bus monitor, will be suspended for a year

Point: post it in February next time dammit!!

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ams6110
_Retina screens will be the largest leap for computing in a decade._

Um, no.

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jasondenizac
I see this point as being fairly pessimistic. It's not saying that Retina
screens are completely fantastic (although they are), but that many of the
other tech revolutions won't have the impact on the mainstream that we expect
them to. High pixel density displays, on the other hand, will touch anyone who
spends much time at all looking at screens, and will change how interfaces are
made.

That said, 10 years is an eternity in this business.

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Smudge
Assuming screens stick around. Perhaps it's a long-shot prediction, but what
if Retina is the Blu-ray of flat panel displays? (Inarguably superior to most
of its predecessors, yet fails to gain critical mass and is soon replaced by a
whole new medium altogether.)

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beggi
Um, what medium could that be? I don't see any competitors to the screen right
around the corner

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Smudge
Again, a total long shot. But I was thinking both in terms of augmented-
reality (Google Goggles) and bigger transparent glass-like displays (Samsung
Smart Window).

But whatever it is, it would only catch on if Apple releases it.

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Roedou
gs/Goggles/Glass (I make the same mistake all the time.)

I broadly agree with you. However, I don't think that Project Glass will
replace desktops / traditional computers, but I could see them being a
replacement for tablets - in that it's the way most people will do un-
intensive browsing, cheicking emails while sat on the sofa, etc.

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Smudge
> Hilariously, it’s still the best non-iPad tablet you can buy.

Really? Pretty low jab at Android, calling the Fire the #1 tablet that isn't
an iPad.

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beggi
This was written in February. Nexus 7 I think everyone can concur is a better
tablet as of today.

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Smudge
Still, even most horrible Android tablets from last year were way more usable
than the Fire, in my opinion. And prior to February there were some pretty
decent tablets too. (Transformer Prime, Galaxy Tab, etc)

~~~
beggi
I think the Fire might have been more usable for people in general, that is
easier for normal people to setup and start consuming Amazon content. I don't
have a strong opinion on this though as I think all Android tablets I've seen
are crap (does not include Nexus 7 which I have not seen yet).

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bherms
I think several of these are spot on. You already nailed Retina obviously.
Next up is Apple Television sets, which many rumors are pointing to an
announcement either late this year or early next year. Kindle Fire will
ultimately either fail, increase in price (perhaps different versions of the
Fire?). Microsoft phones will catch on, but never lead the market. Hollywood
can't be killed any time soon. However, as tech gets better, the ability to
produce high-quality content will shift in favor of the indies. Free wireless
seems like a no-brainer, but the companies that control those channels are
already terrified of losing ground to new tech, so offering something for free
(that they can't arbitrarily raise the prices on to make up for other areas)
is something they won't be keen to do. Facebook needs to focus hard on mobile.
Everyone knows this.

Good read.

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hexis
"Some service in the future is going to curate the top 100,000 or 1,000,000
queries into a list of great, precise results."

So, basically, we'll see the development of yet another hierarchically
organized oracle?

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tthomas48
I can't imagine anyone buying a Facebook phone. Pretty much everyone hates
their tech. Even my parents. Why would anyone take a risk on a phone they were
involved with?

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jpxxx
Thought experiment: $100 subsidized, fun design, good accessories, amazing
social photo experience, great keyboard, and comes with all the free messaging
you can stand paired with a cheap data plan. Kin + Crackberry

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rat87
Why not google "what camera should I buy" instead of "digital camera".

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beggi
Do these results look that much better?

[https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=what%20camera%20sh...](https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=what%20camera%20should%20I%20buy)

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cheald
Yes, actually. Those results are information on how to select a camera. "Which
camera should I buy?" is such a subjective question that it's impossible to
usefully answer it without knowing more about the querying user's needs,
desires, and budget.

As nice as the pipe dream of Siri as the Star Trek AI who can magically infer
all the information needed to precisely answer an ambiguously-phrased question
is, it's not going to happen any time soon.

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bobsil1
Once you ask the user what matters, the problem is eminently solvable:
<http://daring.is> (my startup)

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frankdenbow
"Some service in the future is going to curate the top 100,000 or 1,000,000
queries into a list of great, precise results"

Isn't this exactly what Mahalo tried to do?

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nabilt
Off topic: I've been looking for some kind of app to keep track and share
predictions like these? Would you use it if it did?

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Roedou
Have you seen <http://longbets.org/> ?

Maybe it's over a longer time scale than you were thinking...

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nabilt
This is what I had in mind. Thanks.

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wink
There's also <http://kezera.com> \- but I can't tell how fast invites are
going out.

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gcb
Anything there non-obvious? Despite the Android hindsight...

