
I Sold My Entire Investment Portfolio One Hour Ago - karanke
https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/i-sold-my-entire-investment-portfolio-one-hour-ago-f71a6ed534c7
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PacketPaul
The problem I have is pulling my money out immediately reduces it by 15-30%
because of taxes. So for every $1000 in stocks gains, I will only have $850 to
invest in the future. So taking money out is a guaranteed reduction of your
investment portfolio.

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theonlybutlet
That portion is a basically a sunk cost. You don't have that money you're just
holding onto it for the taxman. Assuming any future gains will be taxed at the
same rate, in effect you are not earning anything more off of it by holding it
as the proportion of tax will be the same. The only way it would be different
is if you expect the tax law to change in the future in your favour.

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naveen99
Your tax bracket could change also if you lose your job or retire, or suffer
other losses.

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esotericimpl
But did he consider that Jerome Powell has a money printer that goes brrrrr?

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aliswe
Good one, very insightful. Inflation should definitely be considered as well.

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zenincognito
Note that while interest rates remain low almost every asset manager is going
to remain invested. So are people like Buffet. Invest in Index. Don't pick
stocks.

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ID1452319
Interesting you should say that. That is exactly my theory as well. If you
sell you have to put your capital elsewhere. Historically, interest rates gave
a decent return in cash and bonds. That doesn't exist today. That's why you're
better off sitting out any falls - as the one in March has shown, they are
very short term.

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kory
Sitting in USD is more risky than tech.

Tech is still the future. Recession isn’t hitting tech as hard as others,
recent financial results prove that.

The dollar is being printed on a massive scale. That’s what’s pushing up
stocks. It’s not a bubble as much as it is moving the baseline value of stocks
relative to USD.

Property will also be going up in the near future (this has already happened
in today’s super low interest rate environment). Property historically holds
its value; this article reeks of recency bias. Because most investments aren’t
doing well now, real estate is an attractive place to park all of those “on
paper” printed gains (which are not real gains, of course).

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zatertip
Nitpicking, the pandemic was hardly a black swan. People around the world have
predicted it since forever, it was only semi-black swan in the amount of
preparation for and willingness to deal with it that the US mustered.

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Udik
I don't get this. Then no crisis is ever a black swan, as we're always
expecting the next one. Financial crises, pandemics, meteorites, terror
attacks? All expected.

A black swan must be an event that is unpredictable in the sense that it
happens suddenly with little warning signs in the immediately preceding
period.

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ericmay
Largest analysis mistake here is looking at past events CDOs as mentioned and
believing the exact same thing will happen again. The outcome won’t be the
same, because if it were to be then the fact that we know the outcome would be
the same changes everyone’s investment decisions.

Sitting on cash is almost universally a bad idea in my opinion (more than a
few months of emergency or if you are saving for something). It means you
think you can predict the market. You can’t.

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aww_dang
The author makes some good points, but glosses over USD valuations as a risk
factor.

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bsaul
Yeap. You’re never « exiting » all the markets. You’re moving from one market
to another. Betting on the dollar vs company’s share is one strategy, but i
wouldn’t say it’s totally risk-free either in the current environment.

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matt-attack
It cannot be described as risk free. It is 100% guaranteed to lose money to
inflation at the bare minimum.

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thoughtstheseus
A 100% cash portfolio is highly exposed to inflation.

