

Tesla founder Elon Musk may be headed for a "stunning fall" - amark
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-02-28/tesla-is-a-car-not-a-revolution

======
cromwellian
Heard the same arguments when Musk tried to get into rockets. He has no
experience making rockets.

Then there was the naysaying when Apple was first getting into phones. What
does Apple know about phones? How can they possibly compete with the likes of
Nokia?

Often industries are disrupted by newcomers who aren't constrained by the
thinking of the existing players. Yes, Musk can't violate the laws of physics
or economics. But the cost structures of existing players aren't always
dictated by the fundamentals, but also by their own organizational baggage and
structure. Hence, SpaceX can compete effectively with DoD defense contractors
hooked on hugely inefficient government contracts. Is it that Boeing or
Lockheed can't things as cheaply, or that SpaceX quality has to suffer? Maybe
the way the government dictates things get funded and manufactured leads to
inefficiencies, like spreading things around congressional districts.

Likewise, for other car companies, the Big Three in particular, they are
somewhat constrained by their existing investments, existing unions, and just
plain old conservativism and aversion to risk taking.

So maybe Musk will fail utterly. No pain, no gain I say. He also has a chance
of succeeding spectacularly.

~~~
barlescabbage
Perfectly stated

~~~
monsterix
Besides that, even if he fails I am happy to have lived with someone like him
among us.

Every time I see these negative media people pulling the right things down and
the wrong things up, I feel these blokes are by design all about increasing
entropy (Could be true!). There is no fix for broken media so to speak.

------
Steko
Auto-industry consultant predicts victory for incumbents over silicon valley
auto startup. Commenters at startup focused website skeptical. News at 11.

~~~
crdoconnor
Bloomberg probably just signed a juicy advertising contract with one of the
big 3. This is the second such article in the last few days.

------
iends
Interesting the article makes fun of Musk because of the hyperloop idea, but
fails to look at SpaceX, which, to me, legitimizes Musk's grand visions.

Who would have thought 20 years ago a private company would be reloading the
ISS instead of NASA?

~~~
jamdavswim
At an order of magnitude less cost

~~~
toomuchtodo
Also, SpaceX iterates stupid fast. How long did we have the Shuttle? The next
Falcon 9 rocket already has landing legs on it to test its helium pneumatic
pistons in preparation for first-stage return to launch pad.

------
bbrain
I think it's hilarious that Edward Niedermeyer links to complaints about
mechanical issues on a Tesla forum to prove that Toyota is somehow more
reliable or innovative.

Did he conveniently forget about all this?:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009%E2%80%9311_Toyota_vehicle_...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009%E2%80%9311_Toyota_vehicle_recalls)

------
schainks
Just some more media trolling, nothing to see here, folks.

Even if he is were for a "stunning fail", let him fail gloriously and
fantastically. It only means he'll be that much better at this next time
around.

I'm completely confident in his ability to fail in order to succeed.

IMHO, Musk is a rare entrepreneur because it's obvious he considers all
lessons learned, isn't afraid to learn new ones, and carries that wisdom
forward into each decision he makes.

------
barlescabbage
He also fails to mention when he's bashing the quality of the Tesla that it
was ranked by consumer reports as the best car of 2014. As well as motor
trend's car of the year in 2013. The stock might be overpriced, but the Tesla
is the only car that has non car enthusiasts talking. My Father in law and my
mother, two out of touch folks both wanna get a Tesla and can't stop talking
about them. There is serious consumer demand waiting in the wings for a
cheaper Tesla.

------
doktrin
I'm a reluctant fan of Musk at very best. I admire his accomplishments, but I
wouldn't shed too many tears if he "failed".

With my prejudices being what they are, I'm part of the core target audience
for this piece. This piece is, however, an embarrassment even by editorial
standards. It consists of sensationalist claims followed by hypothetical straw
man arguments("if he thinks x and y then z may happen" \- seriously?).

------
JunkDNA
I for one am not totally convinced by all the hype around electric vehicles.
Battery capacity has never in the past been able to make gigantic leaps. It
has always been slow incremental year-over-year progress. Nothing seems to
indicate that situation will change any time soon, but I'd love to be wrong
about that because I certainly like the idea of having a car that doesn't need
oil changes and all sorts of other routine maintenance that we take as a given
with internal combustion engines.

All that being said, Elon Musk is no ordinary entrepreneur and you ignore that
at your own peril. I think Wall Street is making a long-term bet that he's
going to pull this whole thing off. Has this author not read "The Innovators
Dilemma"? This is straight out of the playbook. Capture a small portion of a
market largely being neglected by the established players and use it to work
into larger and larger pieces of the market, learning and refining as you go.

------
panther2k
What's the purpose of articles like this? Sure, you can make a reasoned,
persuasive argument that Tesla is overvalued and/or unlikely to succeed
spectacularly but this article isn't that. It's simply a spew of vitriol and
derisiveness. Was this supposed to be convincing? Musk can't succeed because,
well, E.W. Niedermeyer says so?

------
bluthru
We've seen these detraction pieces every step of the way.

------
kapad
I've heard the same argument in respect to almost anyone who is successful
today.

Saying that Person X will fail because their project/idea is not based in
reality is a cliche.

Musk and a lot of other entrepreneurs who can be classified as visionaries,
are not bound by reality, simple because reality is bound within the scope of
the present. Visionaries aren't concerned with the present.

------
sidcool
The article seems like more of negative outlook instead of being based on
sound data. It lays more emphasis on "It's not been done before, so it's not
possible again". It looks more like the view of a Wall Street skeptic.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Perhaps to drive TSLA stock down so interests who didn't get in at a lower
price can?

------
AutoCorrect
Says the people that do nothing but report the news.

"She can tell you bout a plane crash, with a gleam in her eyes. They love to
cut you down to size."

------
kev009
This is quite sensational.. "You mad bro?"

------
kirk21
Conclusion: buy Panasonic stock to reduce your risk (works with Tesla +
Toyota). It's cheap as hell atm.

------
KamiCrit
Seems like someone wants a faster horse.

------
leobelle
Please fix the title editorialization.

------
andyl
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you
win.

