
Psychology of Human Misjudgment - neilkakkar
https://neilkakkar.com/Psychology-of-Human-Misjudgment.html
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melling
Charlie’s speech has been covered many times on HN. It’s worth reading the
past comments.

[https://hn.algolia.com/?query=misjudgement&sort=byPopularity...](https://hn.algolia.com/?query=misjudgement&sort=byPopularity&prefix&page=0&dateRange=all&type=story)

I’ve listened to the speech on YouTube a couple of times.

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neilkakkar
Thanks, this is a good idea!

The speech on Youtube is a shorter version of this text. He revisited it and
expanded on it in Poor Charlie's Almanac.

Here's the full extended text:
[http://web.archive.org/web/20151004200748/http://law.indiana...](http://web.archive.org/web/20151004200748/http://law.indiana.edu/instruction/profession/doc/16_1.pdf)

I think this is very well structured and complete, given Charlie had a lot
more time to figure this text out from the speech.

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wallace_f
There seems to be maybe one missing and that is the disproportionate bias from
reputation.

People can completely hate people they've never interacted with before just
because of what they hear said about them.

Once I stayed at a hotel with this guy who had some mental illness, bigoted
ideae, and who thought I was gay. There was a gay pride parade going on that
day nearby. He completely lost it and was yelling and harassing me. Of course
he ended up getting escored out, but what happened before that was possibly
even worse.

When I went downstairs the staff wouldn't even talk to me because he had gone
down there first and badmouthed me in advance. I was just lucky several people
came down and acted as witnesses. I also had a cell phone recording, but it
didn't even matter at the time because they wouldn't even give me the time of
day.

If you think about it, it's crazy how easily people can be made to put you
down.

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gniv
"One standard antidote to foolish optimism is trained, habitual use of the
simple probability math of Fermat and Pascal."

If somebody read the book, I'd like to understand what he means. Why does he
think people are generally so optimistic, and what is the math he's referring
to?

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tommymachine
By my reading of Munger, it’s not necessarily that people in general are
optimistic, but rather that foolish optimism is one of the flavors of human
misjudgment. Ever the practical ‘psychologist’, I don’t believe Munger focuses
on diagnosing the causes of the various forms of human misjudgments (beyond
their categorization into these forms) so much as he does on prescribing their
potential resolutions, or ‘antidotes’ as he says here.

The math he refers to is simply high school level probability math.

~~~
emmelaich
Warren Buffett has said the same thing.

All you need is high school mathematics and a sense of realism.

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norswap
For those that are interested in going further, I've written on the biggest
teaching/insights of Charlie Munger here:
[https://norswap.com/munger/](https://norswap.com/munger/)

In particular, here is a review/summary of his full list of 25 psychological
tendencies: [https://norswap.com/munger-
psychology/](https://norswap.com/munger-psychology/)

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Animats
He's still alive at 95, and still active in Berkshire Hathaway.

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m3kw9
How when some one say they won’t change if they get rich. Remind them of this:
Contrast-Misreaction Tendency

