
The Coronavirus Will Win - omarchowdhury
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/virus-will-win/612946/
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redis_mlc
> At this point, such hopes look unrealistic. After months of intense
> research, an effective treatment for COVID-19 still does not exist. A
> vaccine is, even if we get lucky, many months away from deployment.

I've been saying this for months.

Mother Nature won in the US, as it has in every previous pandemic.

We can choose how partial lockdown is sequenced, but we need to get to herd
immunity sooner than later.

We've never had a vaccine or cure for the cold (a coronavirus), and there's no
guarantee we'll find one for covid-19.

~~~
lbeltrame
The article writer totally underestimates the effort it takes to get a drug or
a vaccine to the patient.

"Months of intense research" have yielded at least 200+ compounds being tested
for various activities. Large consortia have formed. A lot of things are being
done in parallel to speed up testing (see vaccine research).

It takes time to prove efficacy: remedisivir only showed its efficacy in a
800+ people cohort. At first the time to administration was not correct:
lopinavir-ritonavir were thought to be not working, but perhaps they do if
given earlier in treatment, and what not.

I don't know what the author's expectations are, but we're witnessing a very
fast pace of drug development and testing (not without warts, of course). What
did the author expect, a miracle cure in 6 months? Most of the drugs being
tested at this point are repurposed: the new ones will be tested through the
summer and early autumn.

And there are wins like with dexamethasone, which is effective and cuts down
mortality.

I recommend (to the author) a thorough reading of what's going on before
launching in such a pessimistic piece. Yes, we might still be in hot waters.
No, it's not that we will be destroyed by this coronavirus.

By the way, indications from early data from vaccine development tells us that
it immunity is generated. The open questions are the duration, and the
efficacy in a diverse population. But that's what trials are for. The fastest
vaccine ever made took 4 years, IIRC. We're close to having results in 8
months (positive or not, the data will tell).

P.S.: The cold is mainly caused by rhinoviruses. Coronaviruses only account
for a small percentage of that.

~~~
redis_mlc
> we're witnessing a very fast pace of drug development and testing

Anything short of a successful human trial is ... nothing.

SARS-1 in 2003 even had animal trials, but no results in humans. (Covid-19 is
SARS-2.)

The false hope of a vaccine or cure has caused some US governors to announce
waiting for a vaccine before ending lockdown. 2022? What if that vaccine never
comes? How do you base policy on mere hope?

~~~
lbeltrame
> Anything short of a successful human trial is ... nothing.

RECOVERY just posted their preliminary results on dexamethasone. The NIAID
trials showed efficacy of remedisivir. But getting a trial right can take some
time. RECOVERY started in March, and had to enroll 10,000 patients or so.

A lot of trials are running at this point, it is a matter of collecting data
and drawing conclusions. Antibody based therapies are probably the ones going
to be the most effective, but I worry about the cost (they aren't cheap).

> The false hope of a vaccine or cure has caused some US governors to announce
> waiting for a vaccine before ending lockdown.

That is misguided as much as saying that there is no cure ( _yet_ ). In fact,
I'd say that most governments focused too much on vaccines and too little on
pharmacological interventions.

FTR, for SARS, a lot of programs were halted because it fizzled out, and so it
was impossible to actually test them. For MERS though, there were vaccines in
development (and still are), and that's why most of the stakeholders were this
fast in getting candidates ready.

~~~
redis_mlc
It's great that you're optimistic, but neither SARS-1 (2003) nor MERS (2012)
have vaccines:

"The first identified case occurred in 2012 in Saudi Arabia and most cases
have occurred in the Arabian Peninsula.[2][7] About 2,500 cases have been
reported as of January 2020.[4] About 35% of those who are diagnosed with the
disease die from it.[2] Larger outbreaks have occurred in South Korea in 2015
and in Saudi Arabia in 2018"

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndro...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome)

