
Allan Lichtman's has correctly predicted Presidential elections since 1984 [YT] - colinprince
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mp_Uuz9k7Os
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antasvara
Obviously very impressive, but I've been wondering how likely it is that
someone would get this by chance. If we assume there's a 60% chance of getting
it right on average (this could be lower, but a 10% increase in accuracy seems
like a reasonable amount considering the amount of polling data
available),there's a 1% chance someone could get that record by chance. Given
the amount of individuals in politics, is it too far outside the realm of
possibility that this is largely chance?

