
Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is - jstelz7
https://www.worth.com/how-mass-hysteria-is-making-coronavirus-worse-than-it-actually-is/
======
steelframe
I live 1 mile from Evergreen Hospital and 3 miles from the Life Care facility,
and I'm immunocompromised. Most of my B lymphocytes and a bunch of my T helper
cells are gone. In the past couple of days 7 immunocompromised people within
walking distance of me were killed by this thing. I don't think I'm in
hysteria, but I sure as hell am not leaving my house until I can be convinced
that it's under control in my area.

So far it would seem that when COVID-19 finds its way into a care facility for
the sick and/or elderly, it incubates for a few days and then starts killing
people left and right. And some of the best hospitals in America (e.g.,
Evergreen and Harborview) can't save them.

We've seen what does and doesn't work in places like Japan, Korea, and Italy.
Meanwhile most of the schools around here are still open and the workers
transferring suspected COVID-19 patients to ambulances are using only loose-
fitting face masks as PPE.

I feel like we're collectively failing an open-book test right now.

~~~
irq11
You’re one of the few folks on HN talking about this who actually has
something to worry about...but ironically, you’re not spreading misinformation
or panic, like so many other people. I hope this doesn’t end up being as bad
for sick people as it seems it might.

That said, I think your comment about “failing an open-book test” is a bit
unfair. Yes, the governmental response around the world has been bungled, and
no, it isn’t good. But it’s also pretty much true that there was never going
to be a chance to contain this virus, outside of isolating it to Wuhan in
November (i.e. before anyone knew about it). And a bad flu will rip through
vulnerable populations as well...it’s why we beg and plead for people to get
the flu shot every year (even though they never do...)

There is simply no way to contain a respiratory virus that has spread to tens
of thousands of people. At that point, you need to plan for isolation and care
for the vulnerable, and stop flailing around with travel bans (which don’t
work) and quarantines and whatnot. It’s insane to me, for example, that
Seattle public health officials are operating as if this virus isn’t already
endemic. They have good evidence that it is!

The biggest test we’re failing right now is controlling panic and allocating
resources intelligently.

~~~
ygggvg
I have parents and grandparents. I like people. Im an uncle of 3 young kids.

I'm worries and don't think it is a problem if we would reduce the global
economy fora year to get rid of it.

Or that everyone on the planet should get vaccinated and should life more
aware.

~~~
irq11
First, the kids are fine. This virus doesn’t really seem to affect children.

Second, “worrying” accomplishes nothing. Wash your hands; avoid people when
you’re sick. Avoid sick people. Have a couple weeks of groceries on hand if
you think quarantine is likely. These are things you should be doing _every
year_ during flu season.

But I can’t stress this enough: there’s nothing we can be doing, rationally,
where we can shave off a bit of economic growth in exchange for less virus. At
this point, the virus is endemic. Quarantines make panicky people feel good,
but don’t actually help. Isolation of Wuhan was a good thing to try, but it
failed.

It’s time for the next step: acknowledgement that the virus is everywhere, and
directly protecting vulnerable populations. This is going to happen sooner or
later.

~~~
Der_Einzige
You could immediately fund the CDC to "absurd" levels, such as by giving them
say, 100 billion dollars. I think that would be far more effective than rate
cuts which are likely far more "expensive" but won't actually help.

Though, I want to see the current CDC leadership out. They should not have
silently removed their total tests done. The world needs to see their current
incompetence as a lesson.

~~~
taylodl
Honest question - did that come from CDC leadership or from within the White
House?

------
scott_s
This is a claim from the submitted article with no evidence:

> In all likelihood, however, given the one-off infections that are being
> detected in disparate locations, thousands if not millions have already had
> mild or asymptomatic SARS-CoV2.

An assistance director general and epidemiologist for the WHO, Bruce Aylward,
makes the opposite argument in a recent Vox interview
([https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-
covid19-ch...](https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-
covid19-china)):

 _> Bruce Aylward: ... More of a surprise, and this is something we still
don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community.
Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been
done, how many people were tested, and who were they.

> In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people
> coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the
> outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the
> cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found
> there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a
> lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And
> that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the
> child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the
> population.

> Julia Belluz: If you didn’t find the “iceberg” of mild cases in China, what
> does it say about how deadly the virus is — the case fatality rate?

> Bruce Aylward: It says you’re probably not way off. The average case
> fatality rate is 3.8 percent in China, but a lot of that is driven by the
> early epidemic in Wuhan where numbers were higher. ... This suggests the
> Chinese are really good at keeping people alive with this disease, and just
> because it’s 1 percent in the general population outside of Wuhan doesn’t
> mean it [will be the same in other countries]._

I find Aylward's arguments cogent and backed with evidence from the ground. I
also don't see "mass hysteria." The evidence points to COVID-19 being more
severe than the seasonal flu, we have an opportunity to contain it, and we're
trying to do so. Canceling large events and unnecessary travel seems
reasonable.

~~~
pc2g4d
There is evidence of undetected transmission in Washington State:
[https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-
transmission/](https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/)

~~~
scott_s
That is a different situation, as there is not mass testing in Washington
State. There was/is in China. The point of this line of argument is to get an
idea if the fatality rate really is 2-3%. When we thought there might be a lot
of undiagnosed cases in China, we had reason to suspect the fatality rate is
lower than that. But when we systematically tried to find such cases and
diagnose them, we could not discover them. That supports the conclusion that
the fatality rate really is 2-3%. That people are being infected in
Washington, and we don't know how, does not counter what we think is the
fatality rate.

------
cryoshon
i think this article misses the mark.

consider that the preliminary WHO incident report regarding the chinese
response to the outbreak in wuhan essentially said that the radical and severe
measures taken by the chinese government were the only thing which allowed for
some semblance of control over the course of weeks. if we assume that the
chinese are not fabricating their numbers, it's not much of a relief for us
because they still had thousands of deaths despite their colossal efforts. if
we assume that the chinese have been faking their numbers, the picture is much
more grim.

a lot of the hysteria in the US is stemming from the fact that the CDC is
asleep at the wheel as a result of political pressure or potentially severe
incompetence. after seeing how seriously the chinese took the outbreak and how
badly iran is getting hit by it right now, it is extremely disconcerting to
see our own government doing absolutely nothing as cases continue to mount.

we're barely even testing people. daily life is continuing as normal when
perhaps it shouldn't be.

i know that this isn't the end of the world, but i'm starting to expect that
this epidemic might make life a bit less comfortable for a while.

if the US gets hit very hard and some of the preventable/fixable weaknesses in
american society end up being exposed and exacerbated by the epidemic, i think
we'll be in a severe crisis.

~~~
_bxg1
You also have to consider that population density in China is dramatically
higher than in most of the US. For this virus in particular, that makes a big
difference.

------
calvinbhai
For me, the critical pieces of info everyone should consider are these:

1) Washing hands often, significantly reduces chances of getting infected
(because virus has a fat membrane that breaks when in contact with soap)

2) If you are under 60 yrs old, covid-19 infection becoming fatal is extremely
low, which in turn means, keep older population away from anyone carrying this
virus, hence self-quarantine around elders is extremely important.

3) Wear mask only if infected.

4) The virus doesn't last long on dry surfaces, hot weather (bumped up the
heat in house by a few degrees, yet comfortable enough).

5) I try to eat cooked foods (no salads, no cold foods). This should further
reduce the chances of getting infected

6) Follow less frequent yet more reliable sources of news (this is the hardest
to achieve for most people).

(correct me if I'm wrong, or add more to it if needed)

~~~
titanomachy
> 4) The virus doesn't last long on dry surfaces, hot weather (bumped up the
> heat in house by a few degrees, yet comfortable enough).

What's your source for this? What temperature is required to see this effect?
How sure are you that your house is hot enough?

~~~
wmil
I haven't heard about heat before, but generally for the flu high (50%)
humidity is very helpful.

~~~
ygggvg
It's low humidit. You can read why on Wikipedia

~~~
kspacewalk2
Incorrect. High humidity is thought to somewhat reduce flu transmission [0]

[0]
[https://www.google.com/search?q=flu+humidity](https://www.google.com/search?q=flu+humidity)

~~~
ygggvg
Although a single sneeze releases up to 40,000 droplets,[96] most of these
droplets are quite large and will quickly settle out of the air.[94] How long
influenza survives in airborne droplets seems to be influenced by the levels
of humidity and UV radiation, with low humidity and a lack of sunlight in
winter aiding its survival;[94] ideal conditions can allow it to live for an
hour in the atmosphere.[97]

------
skybrian
This might be a case of excessively binary thinking? Stocking up on things you
normally use is not panic buying, it's a sensible no-regrets precaution. But
it tends to get called "hoarding" anyway.

Buying stuff you don't normally use can also be sensible. Consider putting
together an earthquake kit in California. Unfortunately, having a pandemic kit
ready isn't something most people do, but maybe it should be?

There probably are some kinds of preparation that are sensible and others that
aren't, and we should try to figure out the difference.

I'm also wondering if there might be an untapped market to help people be
prepared without keeping a lot of inventory themselves? Usually there is
advance notice for a pandemic so you just want some assurance that someone can
ship you something when it's time. This would avoid shortages by making it
profitable to keep inventory.

~~~
Loughla
>someone can ship you something when it's time.

The issue with 'prepping' as a lifestyle, the lifestyle you are wanting to
sell with this idea, is that it's about prepping for the unknown. You're
preparing for the worst disaster before it happens.

In that case, the idea of course is that regular routes to receive goods, like
shipping, are off-line.

>Usually there is advance notice for a pandemic

Where'd you come up with that?

~~~
skybrian
Diseases take time to spread. Unless you're particularly unlucky about being
where it starts, it's not like an earthquake where you have no warning.

------
toss1
Counterpoint

Like the Y2K bug, focusing a large amount of society's resources on the
problem is the only think that may prevent it from becoming catastrophic.

I also don't see much hysteria - some real concern, starting to slowly take
action, a long-overdue stock market correction that's already moderating, but
not hysteria.

Moreover, this author seems to have little knowledge of the dynamics of
exponential growth. They also miss the fact that the USA has essentially zero
testing capability, restrict the tests to absurdly tight criteria (returned
from a known hotspot, or contact w/+tested person), so new cases are now
popping up across the nation.

Mostly there is completely insufficient data, especially in the USA, where the
administration has gutted the science-based agencies including the CDC, is
trying to protect the stock market for it's re-election before protecting the
people, and so is basically flying the in the fog saying "it's fine, we don't
see any mountains".

Sitting the the same dataless fog and saying "it's fine we don't see any
mountains either" is not helpful.

------
ISL
I'd disagree. My impression is that the authorities in Seattle, in order to
minimize short-term disruption, are choosing to increase the potential
difficulty on long timescales.

To paraphrase: "We don't want to take aggressive action until we're certain
that it is actually bad.".

In many situations, that is a fine approach, but when the adversary scales
exponentially, it is a dangerous road to travel.

~~~
Apocryphon
I think there’s a difference between government emergency policy being being
sluggish vs. individual response being panicked and hysterical. The latter
leads to hoarding and all kinds of avoidable premature issues.

------
crocodiletears
This was originally going to be a reply to Fruffy's comment.

I don't see mass hysteria, but I do see growing concern.

The last several decades of child-rearing in the US have been marked by an
increased focus upon stress rduction, conflict mitigation, and obstacle-
clearing for the purposes of opening up a larger swath of opportunities for
our children in their futures.

Especially among the upper and middle-classes, I believe that this has
resulted in a larger portion of the population lacking the fundamental coping
mechanisms to respond rationally and proportionally to perceived threats.

Combined with a lack of actual experience dealing with pandemics in our
cultural memory, lower social capital in our immediate communities preventing
stronger bonds of mutual reassurance/support, and our ability to communicate
our concerns with a broad likeminded audience over the internet, and I don't
wonder that an unreasonably high number of young individuals panicking over
the COVID outbreak.

I don't know that this is the case in Europe, as it is outside my direct
experience. But Europeans seem to have a greater sense of institutional trust
than we do here stateside.

We seem to be in a constant state of cultural hyperventilation right now. Of
all the wolves we've worried about wandering the earth, COVID's the one that's
actually coming for us, irrespective of ethnicity, gender, or creed, and it's
also the one we lack the tools to effectively combat at scale.

Even though the article raises a number of reasons why the outbreak may not be
as bad as we fear, if someone's truly concerned that they're in danger of
passing from it, reach out to them and ask how you can help.

Especially among the lower-classes, self-quarantine isn't a realistic option,
and constructing a network of mutual support for the event that it does become
as bad as our most panicked commentators say it might be is a good way to keep
everyone's emotional and physical struggles down while we weather the storm,
if and when it comes.

------
m23khan
I will counter: How can you not feel bit of panic when you see coronavirus
cases being reported daily from all parts of the World where travel is common
or where there is large population?

Then you have excellent leadership in Iran which knowingly hides their
coronavirus situation and thus have exported the virus to poor and incapable
places like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq?

Heck, compared to Iran, even Pakistan is being much more stringent and
transparent.

~~~
NicoJuicy
Because the curve is almost not rising, even in linear form ( I thought it was
logarithmic even before yesterday).

The amount of casualties seem to be in control.

Okay, Iran is acting stupid. But we don't even do business with them. Tourism
is minimal.

Hell, I'd even prefer to get it, so I'm over it ( 32 years old)

~~~
robjan
This isn't like the common cold. There have been cases of reinfection reported
already.

~~~
halfmatthalfcat
They are most likely not reinfections. You can still have the virus
reproducing in your body, yet have recovered and are no longer spreading it.
If you’re in this post-infection period, you’ll still intermittently test
positive (especially when your stool is sampled). This is similar to EBV or
HIV.

These tests (RT-PCR) also aren’t sensitive enough to test whether the virus is
alive or dead, they test for the presence of genetic material.

~~~
jbd0
Viruses are not living things.

------
NicoJuicy
Mass hysteria ? I don't think that's the case, people are carefull, but don't
seem to be scared.

( Belgium)

~~~
raxxorrax
True, but the general reaction was severe. Large events were cancelled and
people quarantined.

To be honest, I am due for a skying trip in three weeks and the most fear I
have is that they just shut down the location and don't let me in (bad) or
don't let me out again (not that bad).

~~~
NicoJuicy
Big events are getting cancelled and people quarantined, correct.

Seems to me that's a good thing, that is stopping the spread / not allowing it
to go out of control.

------
divbzero
“Mass hysteria” sounds extreme and seems to exaggerate our joint response to
date.

What I’ve observed from friends and news out of Seattle is general caution and
a measured public response, which if successful can dramatically slow the rate
of transmission.

------
raxxorrax
There is a dilemma. Nobody knows beforehand how bad things are going to get.
Perhaps this is just a cold, perhaps an aggressive virus that can kill a lot
of people.

For public institutions responsible for health, you would never say that
things aren't that bad. There is nothing to gain here. If it isn't too bad,
you would have been too careful, no big deal. If you are downplaying the
issue, you can get in a lot of trouble because you are suddenly responsible
for every single person who died from this if the outbreak is worse than
previously assumed.

Of course there are some other options like hiding the outbreak completely.
Those fail as the information cannot be contained anymore.

------
moultano
The author is not an epidemiologist, and does not appear to have any other
relevant expertise to assess the situation. The people who do have that
expertise consistently say that it is very serious.

Cases have declined in China only because of the extreme measures they
undertook to stop it. (In other words, "hysteria.")

~~~
war1025
There is a difference between an epidemiologist doing their job and the media
over-hyping the situation to deal with a slow news week.

The medical community should absolutely be in high gear right now. That
doesn't mean the rest of us need to act like its an end of the world
situation.

~~~
moultano
The medical community is asking us to prepare. You should be changing your
behavior to reduce contact with other people, learning the necessary
sanitation techniques, and preparing to be self sufficient in your home for a
few weeks.

------
scarmig
Terrible take and wishful thinking; this article will not age well.

You can't write off the Diamond Princess as "well the people on it were old,
so their mortality doesn't count." It's the one natural experiment where we do
have good, hard numbers. In terms of access to treatment, they're the optimal
scenario, and so it's likely that the mortality rate will be around 1% for
older people with access to treatment. This is far higher than the flu and a
disaster in itself.

But what makes this a mega-disaster is what happens when the medical system is
overloaded. That's when you get the scary 2%+ overall mortality. And we are
getting closer and closer to the point of no return where community
transmission swamps all medical facilities. It is what happened in Wuhan, and
it can happen in Western countries.

Beyond that, the author piles on as many optimistic assumptions as possible:
every death is accurately counted! Millions of people are asymptomatically
infected! The USA will be as effective as Singapore in responding! Cases are
peaking and will start to decline! I'd usually refrain from calling something
like that idiotic, but since he's more than happy to lodge insults like
hysterical and witch hunt, yes, he's saying idiotic things.

The thing is, by approaching the issue with seriousness and diligence, it's
possible to avoid that death spiral! China did in all of its other provinces.
And, in a better and more applicable way, Singapore has responded with
effectiveness and humanity.

But it seems like the main opinions among the ruling class in the US range
from "it's just the flu" to "it's a hoax!"

------
saiya-jin
I think this shows how much people trust their government and system overall,
and how much they just consume junk media like twitter, FB etc. of these days.

Here in Switzerland, I see practically no change apart from few people on
streets wearing masks (by few I mean like 2 today, for the first time since
months). No panic shopping, our company is not going crazy just doing what
seems adequate (extra hand disinfection available, there was a question of
checking if remote works OK if needed). Shops have +-same amount of people,
nobody binge shopping, all is available (apart from useless face masks in
pharmacies, of course). Bear in mind that in my town we have at least 5 cases,
could be more (not following this closely, what would be the point apart from
getting into negative mental spiral).

Same look in France just across the border - big shopping centres seems
exactly same as before. Went last weekend to Grenoble and ended up shopping at
Carrefour there - again, business as usual. Nobody checking anything at EU
borders, in nor out.

Back home in Eastern europe, some folks are going a bit mental and things for
sure look a bit differently there.

------
outside1234
I don't know - a 15% mortality rate for 80+ year olds is pretty bad. Or do
their lives not count? Or are we not responsible for trying to slow the
spread?

~~~
DyslexicAtheist
and it's up to around ~6% - 10.5% risk for those with a precondition. If this
estimate[0] turns out to be correct, everyone will either have been directly
affected by loss of somebody, know somebody who lost someone, or are dead
themselves.

[0] [https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-
se...](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-
demographics/)

    
    
      PRE-EXISTING CONDITION | DEATH RATE confirmed cases | DEATH RATE all cases
    
      Cardiovascular disease | 13.2%                      | 10.5%
      Diabetes               | 9.2%                       | 7.3%
      Chronic respiratory    | 8.0%                       | 6.3%
      Hypertension           | 8.4%                       | 6.0%
      Cancer                 | 7.6%                       | 5.6%
      no pre-existing        |                            | 0.9%

~~~
viewer5
Why is diabetes a risk factor?

~~~
pvaldes
Diabetes produces high blood sugar that damages the walls of the arteries and
veins

A combination of damaged lungs (less oxygen intake than normal) and troubles
moving the scarce oxygen around the body trough a partially blocked
circulatory system is not good news for the patient and can increase the risk
of a heart failure and dead. If the lungs fail, the heart will fail next.

------
perchecrik
Did I panic? I don’t know. I began to prepare in early February for the
possibility of draconian cordon sanitaire, widespread panic, and the
consequent interruption in supply after learning that in Wuhan initial
warnings had been suppressed, and mass gatherings permitted during a time the
virus was in the population. Because of that head start, and the dramatic R_0
of this bug, I sensed this was no ordinary outbreak.

I resumed my efforts in mid February after learning that the CDC had rejected
WHO test kits, then had produced defective test kits, which, coupled with
unreasonably strict test criteria, caused virtually no surveillance in the US
to be done. It did not inspire confidence that mass gatherings continued to be
held, and were even encouraged (e.g., San Francisco's Mayor's issuance of a
statement encouraging RSA conference attendance, or the recent Bernie Sanders
rally in San Jose).

Note that the failure of the US to adequately surveil, moreover its failure to
respond quickly to that failure, mirrors what transpired in Wuhan. In the case
of Wuhan, the national state only became aware of the problem when the local
medical system was overwhelmed, and the epidemic had gone, ahem, viral.

Given the similarity between the surveillance gap in China and the US, and the
failure to respond to that gap in the US, I thought prudent to continue to
prepare.

I might, though, have a different perspective due to the fact that my father
was head of serology and virology labs with reporting, diagnostic, and
research responsibilities for animal diseases for a US state. Or, maybe a
little knowledge is a dangerous thing, I don’t know. But I can, thus,
recommend journalistic potboilers such as “Rats, Lice, and Men” and “Plagues
and Peoples”. More seriously, David Quammen, given the background he gained in
evolutionary biology from writing “Song of the Dodo”, in “Spillover” gives
what’s probably the best elucidation of zoonotic pathogens.

Previous zoonotic pathogenic outbreaks have killed more than probably all wars
combined. Disruption of habitat by human colonization and climate change have
intersected with mass jet travel to increase the likelihood that pathogens
will make it from animal reservoirs to our species.

~~~
Ruthalas
Do you have any preparations tips or guides you'd care to share?

------
BearOso
Classic situation for Pascal’s Wager.

Shouldn’t we opt for action assuming the worst even though we may deem it an
overreaction in the future? Then if it _is_ bad we’ll have done what we could.

------
pc2g4d
For the most part, I think we should trust people's instinct to secure
resources for themselves in expectation of upcoming hard times. I live in
Seattle. Due to the minimal testing that has occurred, we are just now
learning of multiple cases which are being retroactively classified as
Covid-19. These are from the very few that have actually been tested, which is
a small proportion of those who showed severe enough symptoms to warrant
testing.

Genomic analysis suggests that the virus has been spreading undetected in the
community since January 15th [https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-
transmission/](https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/) This is
from a virologist at Fred Hutch Cancer Institute who is part of a viral
epidemiology study. If the virus doubles every 6 or 7 days as estimated,
then... well, you're all good with your powers of 2, there are likely hundreds
of cases already.

Every day there are new announcements of deaths from this disease just miles
away, of new people showing symptoms, of people whose "flu" has been diagnosed
after the fact as coronavirus. In a dense urban center like this with people
crowded together on streets, in buses, in workplaces, I am working under the
assumption that it is already in my neighborhood. I don't think that's
unreasonable. The pharmacies in the area have been filling people's
prescriptions for three months' worth without any prompting. They are planning
for a long slog in which they want to keep people AWAY from the pharmacy as
much as possible. The county has purchased a hotel to repurpose as a
quarantine center, and is prepping portable isolation units. We've seen what a
lackadaisical response brought Wuhan---it is not "hysteria" to work to avoid
that same fate.

For the rest of the nation, I think it's eminently sensible to get a supply of
nonperishible food, of prescriptions, of some fever reducer, etc. to last two
weeks to a month. Get in the habit of washing your hands regularly, thoroughly
according to CDC recommendations. Get in the habit of NOT TOUCHING YOUR FACE
(it's very hard!) and all the usual stuff but actually applied. Be mindful of
who in your family and community might be vulnerable, have respiratory
conditions, be elderly, be in treatment for cancer, have an impaired immune
system, etc., and make plans for how to protect them in the event of an
outbreak in your community.

Those decrying "mass hysteria" do have a point---prudence can become paranoia,
preparation can become panic. But mostly I think people should be encouraged
rather than discouraged to prepare, because this will very likely be in your
area soon.

------
seanieb
Anyone who doesn’t think this has the potential to be a big deal and worth
worrying about doesn’t understand numbers. Couching this in some facts about
the seasonal flu is all you need to reveal those that are ignorant. I’m not
even going explain why. The comparisons to the flu have been eviscerated so
many times in the month or more.

~~~
scottlocklin
On the contrary: his points were exactly correct. We're dealing with extremely
biased estimators due to the cost and supply chain for the Covid virus test
which is basically only given to very sick people, radically biasing the
estimator high. At the very least, the estimator is extremely uncertain, and
anyone who works with numbers should be acutely aware of this.

We're also dealing with people who completely forgot how hysterical people
were over the swine flu, SARS, MERS and so on, which ultimately turned out to
be nothingburgers. And a completely broken mass media system where pretty much
all sources of news are about as reliable as the National Enquirer, and
significantly more politically biased.

Flagging this was foolish and a further contribution to the mass hysteria.

~~~
Jwarder
> SARS, MERS and so on, which ultimately turned out to be nothingburgers

As a reminder, SARS and MERS were contained thanks to massive international
effort to identify the spreaders, quarantines (including whole hospitals), and
restrictions on air travel.

~~~
scottlocklin
There's no question that quarantines prevent the spread of disease: there is
plenty of question as to whether the disease justifies it; including in the
cases of SARS and MERS.

For example: most new flus come out of China due to their agricultural
practices; building a wall around China until they change the practices and
isolating people in the rest of the world population who get it would actually
remove the flu from the human experience. I believe flu killed 60,000 people
in America last year. Are we ready to do that? Should only take a couple of
years!

~~~
udkyo
SARS and MERS killed ~1 in 10 and ~1 in 3 of the people who contracted them.

If a contagious disease with a 34% mortality rate don't justify containment.
What does?

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fredgrott
lets see major virus that affects the load of relying upon hospital services
infrastructure..seems that coronavirus concerns are justified not overblown

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perchecrik
[ deleted -- sorry about that. ]

~~~
woutr_be
What's going on with this comment? Why did someone else post the exact same
thing:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=ChibaCity_](https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=ChibaCity_)
([https://imgur.com/a/XgSpxie](https://imgur.com/a/XgSpxie))

~~~
perchecreek
Gah, no, it's me...I was struggling to recall login/pw, and despite that the
interface seemed to have denied login, the posts later appeared. Sorry.

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beamatronic
Anecdotally, I see attitudes among friends and family towards Coronavirus
split along the same lines as whether they support or despise Trump.

~~~
drewg123
Which way does the split go? Trump supporters are panicking about the virus,
or not panicking?

~~~
beamatronic
Trump supporters are downplaying the whole thing.

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akimball
Panic gets a bad rap. It is much better to panic early, when you have the
leisure to plan ahead with abundant resources. Panic becomes bad late in the
game when resources are constrained and there is not time to implement or
optimize a plan. In short: The time to panic is now.

------
Zenst
Yip and it's all down to the media outlets and anti-social media who allow it
to perpetuate and then claim the high-horse.

Tweets of mass-disruption have done more than any WMD.

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fourstar
I flagged this article and I think others should too. Here's why: We don't
HAVE enough data points yet. Can't trust anything coming out of China and the
incubation time is a couple weeks. If you look to Iran -- it's a mess.
Downplaying this entire thing is the reason why we've seen this virus pop up
all over the US. No one is taking quarantining seriously.

~~~
djtriptych
Flagged also. This is pretty close to active disinformation.

