
Taleb: The only man who has a clue - mjirv
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/04/taleb-the-only-man-who-has-a-clue.html
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BubRoss
The only thing this guy understands is marketing. I assume somewhere in his
book he gets past talking about how great he is from being the first to trade
a certain asset class, but I wasn't able to make it that far.

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mjirv
I recommend reading Fooled by Randomness (his first book) if you want the one
that maximizes substance and minimizes the bluster.

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anm89
Good to know, because anti fragile was unreadable. I also gave up before
getting to any real content.

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ornornor
I had the same experience.

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warmfuzzykitten
That's a self-assessment, right?

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WheelsAtLarge
He has certainly been proved right about black swans been way more common than
people assumed. Kind a sux.

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mjirv
To be a little pedantic, this isn't really how I would summarize Taleb. His
main idea is that Black Swan events are extremely important because of their
outsized impacts, not because they are more frequent than people think.

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downshun
Well if you define a black swan event as important then, sure, it's bound to
be important.

"Black swan defining characteristics:

First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular
expectations(...).

Second, it carries an extreme 'impact'.

Third (...) we concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making
it explainable and predictable."

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woodandsteel
No, the conventional belief is that only a very small proportion of extremely
rare events have a major impact, as measured by standard criteria of the
importance of impact. Taleb is arguing that a much larger proportion them do.

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downshun
If asked to plot the exact distribution of events in the (rarity, impact)
vector space then I'm bound to getting it inaccurate more than not.

