

Middle class leaving San Francisco, census says - storborg
http://blog.sfgate.com/techchron/2014/02/07/middle-class-leaving-san-francisco-census-says/

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saalweachter
Once again, the income range quoted in the article seems to correspond to the
Thompson & Hickey 2005 definition of "Lower middle class". Mostly likely the
people moving in to replace the displayed Lower-middle-classers are Upper-
middle-classers making $75,000-$250,000, with only a sprinkling of Upper-
classers (aka the 1%).

So once again pitting the middle against itself...

([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lower_middle_class](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lower_middle_class))

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sillysaurus2
$75k in San Fran isn't upper middle class.

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1945
That's for sure. Pulling a figure out of thin air, but with an understanding
of the cost of living (I live in the area), I'd say upper-middle begins at
around $150+.

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entendre
Have fun commuting from Oakland or living with 4 bros on 100k. Middle class
is, "can I have a kid comfortably?"

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davidjnelson
Exactly. Middle class in San Francisco is $250k-$500k. These type of articles
are so out of touch with the reality on the ground it's ridiculous. 1 bedroom
apartments with a washer and dryer, no mold, no neighbors cigarette smoke, and
two parking spots _start_ at $4k per month. And that's after taxes.

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codex
A net loss of 1500 individuals spread out over four years: in other words,
almost nothing.

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e40
I can tell you that all the people that have moved into my East Bay
neighborhood with good schools have been from SF. People with kids that can't
handle the price for private schools and deal with the kid unfriendly nature
of SF.

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sven98
You mean the broken needles in the gutters, the people taking dumps on the
sidewalk in broad daylight, hustlers trying to sell you crack and meth on
every corner downtown, and the general ambient smell of piss?

Come on, nothing builds character like that.

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cmelbye
That's a little harsh.

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hueving
Yeah, but after a while you get used to the smell.

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anovikov
I think it's some definition of 'middle class' coming from the 1970s and never
inflation-adjusted since then. A person making $35K is anything but a middle
class in every place i seen, let alone Silicon Valley. Maybe, a lower middle
in totally clapped out East European countries like Ukraine.

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billyjobob
The American English definition of 'middle class' is bizarre and seems to
include anyone who has a job and isn't homeless. The correct English meaning
of the word is someone who works for themselves rather than a boss in a
profession which has a guild to ensure exclusivity, e.g. doctor or lawyer. Or
the owner of a small business which employs other people. It's mostly
inherited upon birth and has little to do with income. For example the son of
a doctor will be born middle class and will maintain that status even if he
becomes a wage labourer working for an employer. After perhaps 20 years of
wage labour he may then consider he has fallen into the working class.
Similarly someone who wins millions on the lottery will never really be 'upper
class' because they weren't born of aristocratic stock, although if they
maintain their wealth while avoiding work then their children might be.

The people in Silicon Valley working for others are working class.

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eaurouge
I think it's bizarre that in England your status in society is based mostly on
whether you won or lost the birth lottery.

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DanBC
Do you think it's bizarre that it is more true for the US?

EDIT: accidentally downvoted you. Sorry.

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eaurouge
I don't think it's more true in the US. It's easier to get into the best
universities in the US than it is in the UK. If you manage to make _it_ , (for
the most part) no one cares who your parents or grand parents were. In the UK
these things matter to the point of absurdity. In the UK, the system was
rigged centuries ago; here in the US our rigged system is still very much in
its infancy, relatively speaking of course.

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barry-cotter
I'm pretty sure the US super elite schools (HYPS) do not cover as much of the
population as the UK super elite schools (Oxbridge). I believe it's something
like 1-2% for the UK and 0.4% for the US. I may misremember the components
(i.e. it may be for merely elite schools, like the Russell Group or the rest
of the Ivy League plus MIT and Cal Tech etc.)

Super elite term taken from Lauren Rivera's "Ivies, Extracurriculars, and
Exclusion"

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w1ntermute
It's amazing how, in a city full of so many supposedly socially conscious
people, the government has been able to allow things to get so bad for the
middle class.

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kaonashi
The government can accommodate (or fail to), but most of the driving factors
here originate from the private sector.

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spikels
Bullshit! The private sector is the same in the places the SF middle class are
moving to. It's the selfish, short sighted SF government that's causing this.

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kaonashi
Tech companies dumping tons of money into the real estate market is _not_ a
government generated problem.

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spikels
Wow! Hiring people and paying them well is a problem?

SF has severely restricted supply for decades with some of the most
restrictive planning and building codes in the US. In SF anyone can force a
hearing on a building permit - after planning review, neighbor notice,
hearings appeals, etc. This is unheard of anywhere else and is why it takes
years to build new housing. Then there is the rent control ordinance that
stopped new apartment building for a decade and keeps thousands of units
vacant today.

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kaonashi
It causes problems for the middle class being priced out of the market, yes.
How is dropping rent controls supposed to anything but exacerbate that
problem?

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spikels
Price controls, like rent control, have the well know effect of reducing
supply. Along with extremely restrictive building policies, SF housing supply
has become inflexible and is unable to keep up with demand thus prices will go
up. This is exacerbated by the various low income housing policies which also
reduce the supply of market priced housing that the middle class occupies.

This was entirely predictable. There is no free lunch. You can't have cheap
housing for some without raising the price for everyone else. SF is just a
particularly extreme example.

BTW - Don't worry about rent control going away anytime soon - we are locked
in politically. And planning restrictions are unlikely to ease either. So
expect continued above inflation price/rent increases and a slow exodus of the
middle class. Due to the poor schools we have already lost many families.

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kaonashi
> keeps thousands of units vacant

> have the well know effect of reducing supply

This critique seems rather incoherent.

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spikels
Many SF landlords have voluntarily removing units unit from the market by
simply not rerenting after they become vacant because of all the hassles of
rent control. This is one of several way that rent control reduces the number
of units available for occupancy, known as "supply".

Understand? I'd not, I suggest reading any basic economics text.

Rent control in standard economic theory

[http://homepages.wmich.edu/~u5nwaogu/Overhead/Chapter%206%20...](http://homepages.wmich.edu/~u5nwaogu/Overhead/Chapter%206%20-%20Supply,%20Demand,%20and%20government%20policies.pdf)

Rent control in practice in SF

[http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/07/opinion/king-of-my-
castle-...](http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/07/opinion/king-of-my-castle-yeah-
right.html?_r=1&)

[http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2011/05/because-of-rent-
control-...](http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2011/05/because-of-rent-control-sf-
has-31000.html)

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kaonashi
The second link you posted made no reference to rent control.

The third made a lot of noise about rent control, but then cited another
article which, again, made no reference to the practice.

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yeukhon
The data doesn't show why they are leaving. Renters or land owners? When they
count individuals, what is the number of couple leaving SF?

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jprinzo
What's a middle class?

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Fasebook
Pretty clear that workers came to SF, worked and then left when they were
done. Land value inflation worked as intended.

