

Facebook is Dying - silkodyssey
http://www.baekdal.com/opinion/facebook-is-dying-social-is-not/

======
fnid2
As a consultant to the dot-com industry around the turn of the century, I
traveled a lot. I took a lot of long cab rides from airports to downtowns. I
talked to lots of cabbies. At some point, I knew the end was near. I knew the
end was near when cabbies started asking me if it was a good idea to invest in
some particular technology stock or another. Why are cabbies investing in
Juniper Networks?

Recently, I started another side business. One of my cousins who knows almost
nothing about technology came to me and said, "Let me tell you something. I
know how you can get your business started and I want to tell you about it."

At this point, I was already skeptical, but she continued... "There's this
thing on the internet called Facebook and millions of people use it and you
can make millions of dollars there..."

Oh no, I thought.

But I knew the end was near for facebook. I've known for quite some time.
Years in fact. I can't explain to them why I don't join facebook anymore than
I could explain to those cabbies why they shouldn't put their money in to
Juniper Networks or pets.com. Decisions like that can't be rationalized to
those who see a bright future in their bets.

But history tells us a lot and history moves very fast on the internet.
Facebook is not sticky. Share prices are not sticky. Users can leave and
investors can sell -- and they do. And they will.

Facebook will fall far and it could, and I suspect _is_ falling fast.

~~~
m0th87
My technically inept family members have been using Google for years. But I
don't see their shares tumbling.

~~~
jacquesm
I'm sorry, I don't see your point. Could you elaborate?

~~~
m0th87
I think it's a false dichotomy to compare the tech bubble with facebook. The
former was an economic phenomenon that was dependent on the continued supply
of new money from increasingly clueless investors (essentially a pyramid
scheme, like all bubbles). The latter is a business with a ton of users and a
disturbing amount of information on those users. They have several options for
further monetization that don't necessitate unsustainable growth.

I do hope facebook fails because of its stance on privacy, among other issues.
But I don't think its situation is at all comparable to that of the tech
bubble.

------
jacquesm
We're all dying, but that doesn't mean we'll be dying tomorrow.

Titles like that should come with a qualifying end-date.

Otherwise it's just about some undefined point in the future.

If facebook is dying I'd like to see some proof. I'm very much of the opinion
that facebook is transient, but I'd be very careful to stick an end-date on it
smaller than at least 5 years in to the future, and a lot can happen in 5
years.

In my own circle of friends facebook is definitely past its prime, indicating
that there is a lifecycle to a facebook account, if that is a universal truth
then we should see a downturn in facebook traffic in the next 12 months or so.

~~~
fnid2
It's much easier to predict what will happen than it is to predict when.

For example, I can make the following predictions:

    
    
      Facebook will collapse
      India and China will erupt into violent war
      We will experience a water crisis
      Oil will run out  (that one is actually easier, about 3 decades)
      Iran will be invaded
      

These are all fairly obvious predictions. Sometimes math can be used to zero
in on dates, but for most of us around here, we simply do not have enough
information to calculate exact dates. We can only speculate.

The article is analyzing the future of facebook, saying today, that it will
not be around at some point, which is contrary to many current opinions.

But I say the media will start to discuss an inflection point in Facebook
before the end of the summer. They'll talk about how its oldest users are
leaving, but its still getting new members. It will talk about a decline in
the length of the average lifetime of a facebook account. It will say fewer
people are logging in as much. Fewer new apps are being developed. Again, all
by the end of the summer.

By the end of this year, we'll start to see lots of "will xyz.com replace
facebook?" Apple could launch a social network. Bloggers/journalists will ask,
"When will apple create a social network?" They'll start to point out growth
in other social networks, they'll talk about where the facebookers are going.
All this by the end of 2010.

By the end of 2011, facebook will be passe among the internet elite. The
oprahs of the real world will start saying you can interact with them
somewhere other than facebook. Commercials on TV will mention some other
network instead of mentioning their facebook page like they do now.

By the end of 2012, the blogosphere will be talking about what mark did wrong,
why people thought it was different, why it was the same, lessons the new
start up social networks can learn from his mistakes.

By the end of 2013, facebook will be a distant memory...

~~~
revorad
Care to put some details on the India-China war prediction?

~~~
jacquesm
I'm not so sure about that one either (though I can see why the GP might think
there would be, given the fact that they are in relative proximity and both in
ascendancy), but those alone are not reason enough.

I'd hate to lay odds on a Pakistan - Indian nuclear exchange though, or the
next time a nuclear weapon is used against a city, too many unstable
characters are already in possession of nukes or will probably get them within
the next 30 years or so.

Seoul? Islamabad? Teheran? Bombay? Cairo?

The mind reels when you think about the consequences of a nuclear exchange in
those regions.

I've always been very much shocked at the ease with which the US decided to
try its nuclear weapons on populated areas, the 'we saved lives, the war ended
sooner' argument doesn't hold water in the context in which it is usually
given.

But in the longer term, it may have helped to stave off use by a whole raft of
nations after world war II, given that the horrors of the aftermath were known
before more powerful devices were built.

History is fickle that way, we only get to see one of all the possible future
threads.

------
michaelkeenan
I'd like to bet against the notion that Facebook is dying. I suggest this
metric: on May 7, 2015, Facebook will still be one of the top five websites in
the USA, measured by Alexa traffic ranking
(<http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/Facebook.com>), and it will still be the most
popular social networking website in the USA, again measured by Alexa traffic
rankings.

USD$200, winnings go to the winner's favorite charity? Feel free to suggest
different terms, metrics, betting amounts, or to make it a personal bet, not a
charitable bet.

~~~
fnid2
I'll take the top 5 metric charity bet. I bet that by May 7, 2015, Facebook
will _not_ be in the top 5 sites as ranked by Alexa.

I think it's an easy metric free of dispute. In 5 years, we may argue, "What
is a social network?"

But I highly doubt facebook will be in the top 5.

I choose my high school as the recipient of your money when I win. :) I'll be
back here in 5 years to see who the winner is. Adding an item to my calendar
now. Will respond to this post with the identity of the recipient institution.

~~~
sasmith
What if Alexa is no longer around?

~~~
fnid2
Yeah, I thought about that, or what if HN isn't around. There is
<http://www.longbets.org> This is the perfect bet for there.

If alexa isn't around, we can substitute the most popular website ranking
website.

~~~
qeorge
LongBets.org is awesome! Thanks for sharing it.

This wager is tailor made for it.

------
GiraffeNecktie
One data point: management at my large government enterprise are suddenly
getting all jiggy with social networking and want to do an internal Facebook
(for no discernable business reason).

That's a sure sign that something has passed it's prime.

~~~
nradov
IBM is actually trying to build a business around that through Lotus
Connections and related products.
<http://www-01.ibm.com/software/lotus/products/connections/> And, by the way,
I'm not criticizing IBM for that. It's a useful product and can add a lot of
value for large enterprises.

------
tptacek
This is a definition of "dying" that appears to reduce to "becoming less and
less likeable to the author of the article".

------
mburney
I check my facebook account quite often but don't actually use it for
anything. Only about 5% of my friends frequently update their status. It is
strange how the habit has remained with me despite the content being no longer
relevant to my life.

Reminds me of what Nietzsche said about religion. God is dead (even though
churches are not).

Does anyone have statistics on the ratio of "facebook site hits"-to-"actual
usage"?

------
jsz0
_It got so complex that people had no other choice than to look at simpler
solutions_

The big difference is these extended features, inconsistencies, and
functionality overlaps don't really effect the core usability of Facebook for
the masses. Most people look for the text box, write something, and click
Share or they use the 4 icons under the same text box for video, photos,
events, links. That's it. Very simple.

~~~
JoeAltmaier
Simple, it is not. I've used it for months, still don't have any idea what the
tabs are for, not sure who can see what I post, not sure where my "wall" is.
Not because I'm an idiot, but I have an arrogant disregard for confusing
interfaces and refuse to spend even a few minutes decoding their arcane
controls.

------
plesn
Ok, so now I need a social network obeying the following constraints:

\- I control my data. My data are where I decide they should be, on my server
or web-hosted somewhere. So it is decentralised and everyone has it's node.

\- It's based on a standard API, not a product. It defines identities (openid
url?), associated publishing of data (defined by its url), relation between
data (like a comment on a photo. So some JSON here), and mainly access rights
on this data by other identities.

\- friends I accept are based on some sort of authorized_keys mecanism, with
more detailed access rights.

\- I can define some data-stores elswhere, like my photos being on Flickr...
Of course I loose some control, but I can revert this.

\- there is a canonical open source implementation I can install at home.

\- I can easily move my account or some of my data seamlessly, have my url
point to it. It should be easier than moving a blog if you own your domain!

So it's just the web, openid, and some standards, or am I missing something.
Is someone making this ?

edit: I precised some ideas.

~~~
gamache
You are basically talking about the World Wide Web itself.

~~~
plesn
All parts exist on the web (OpenID, OAuth, JSON, RSS, microformats, etc...),
but not in a usable form as easy to use as Facebook.

------
albertsun
The only part of Facebook that is useful to me now is as a directory. I think
the time is ripe for a start-up to challenge them in that field.

~~~
techiferous
Yep, that's the _only_ way I've been using it during the past year. As an
address book.

------
lsb
Like Microsoft is dying?

~~~
potatolicious
A bit, yeah. Granted, given their size and cash in the bank they'll hobble
along for quite a while longer - decades perhaps - but their days as a fast-
growing industry leader are almost done (if not so already).

One of their two cash cows is doing well, the other (larger one) is losing
market share rapidly to a competing desktop OS, as well as having its
profitability absolutely shredded by low-cost computing (read: netbooks).

Their cash cow is almost milked out, and their desperate forays into other
fields have been met with little success. The Xbox division is the only bright
spot in a long, long, list of failures (even that has profitability issues,
but at least the product is winning) - Zune? WinMo (though we will see how the
new version does)... Seen any Surfaces around lately?

Their domination of the internet browser has not been so for years now, and
keeps slipping ever further. For now, their customer base seems to be heavily
reliant on the stickiness of existing institutional installations - this
historically does not bode well for the company, when a large portion of your
income is from customers who are legacy-locked into your product. It seems
peachy until a more agile startup comes and eats your lunch.

~~~
JoeAltmaier
Ok, not to digress too much, but Microsoft is not an industry "leader" and
perhaps never has been. A leader has to know where they're going. Microsoft
expands "vegetatively", trying everything and putting money behind what wins.
DOS sold well for 10 years; Microsoft pushed DOS. And NT, and CE, and Windows
Mobile. They "lead" until margins; then they abandon and rush off to whatever
is winning this quarter. This is nothing like leadership; its what a follower
does, except in this case Microsoft is following their own shadow. It leaves
us all spinning from technology to technology trying to guess if this next
great thing is going to last.

------
junklight
You go and tell that to all the people I know in real life that use facebook -
the mothers in the school playground for example.

Facebook is so big most of its users don't care about any of that stuff. For
them it has one simple function - its a good way to interact with friends and
family.

These are people who probably couldn't program the VCR to record a program in
advance, who shrugged their shoulders when our (uk) government left all their
children's records on a train, whose technical knowledge is minimal.

Facebook is doing just fine - just techies who worry about the details who are
going off it. For the mainstream it works just fine.

(and as an aside - one of the weirdest things ever is hearing people who would
have thought that me and my mates playing D&D when we were younger was geeky
and strange - talking about things like farmville in just the same way)

------
lukeqsee
Wow. This is the 5th post of the demise or disgust of Facebook -- today. Are
we just hating on them, or are these posts signaling a drastic change in our
posture towards them? I don't know, but I suspect FB will have to respond to
these cries, or risk their hacker users.

~~~
fnid2
You gotta understand, for hackers, most things are binary: black or white.
Either facebook is great, or they are evil and the switch just got flipped.

Hackers are trend setters on the web. Watch them.

~~~
lukeqsee
Quite true. I guess it was a rhetorical question. It seems the switch is
either flipped, or very, very close to being flipped.

------
badave
Well, something can only grow exponentially for so long.... It's growth might
be dying. It might be reaching its teenage years. Unfortunately it's only a
matter of time before its a big company that can't keep its startup mentality.

------
faramarz
What a crock of shit. Pardon my french.

If you're going to close your account, the world doesn't need to hear about
it. Those of you jumping on the bandwagon to close your accounts probably
can't come up with a real reason why you joined the service in the first
place. So stop your whining.

2 bloggers ranting about their demise doesn't count for the rest of the
population.

Facebook is here to stay. you know why? because it's the only app that you,
your mother and your grandmother (mine anyway) are on and navigating with
ease.

~~~
jacquesm
They seem to be somewhat desperate though, judging by the sign-off screen:

[http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/what_happens_when_you_d...](http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/what_happens_when_you_deactivate_your_facebook_acc.php)

~~~
faramarz
Thats not desperate, that's a great retention technique! Every startup can
learn from this. If you don't have a practice to retain your users, you don't
care about the success of your business.

~~~
pyre
That's a retention technique in the same way that, "Don't break up with me! I
Love You!" is a relationship reparation technique.

~~~
tyler
Not that I'd actually recommend doing it, but I'd bet that technique does work
some small percentage of the time. What does Facebook have to lose by seeming
desperate at that stage? I think it's smart.

------
motters
I agree with much of the criticism of Facebook in this article, and that it's
certainly not going to be the last word in social networking.

------
alxp
"Your engineers are running the aslum."

This is always the cliché, but I'm sure it's much more likely that some
product manager in charge of "community pages" has their own idea of how
things should work and insists that the devs make it work and the devs are
just doing what they can to please the different bosses.

------
char
I'm generally pretty understanding about typos and occasional grammatical
errors in articles, but this entire post is pretty ridiculous. I'll take that
back if this person is a non-native English speaker, but if not, I really find
it difficult to take anything he says seriously.

~~~
TheBurningOr
Thomas Baekdal is danish.

------
tdoggette
Okay, so I meet someone and decide that we ought to keep in touch. We swap
phone numbers, and I say, "add me on Facebook when you get home."

They say, "nah, I don't use Facebook anymore. Do you have a _______ account?"

Someone should really fill in that blank.

------
j_baker
Why does everyone seem to hate facebook here? I'm trying to think of the last
_positive_ story I've seen about them.

~~~
RyanMcGreal
Geeks hate Facebook in large part because we tend to pay more attention to
things like privacy and control over personal data than the typical user.

------
Aetius
Facebook launched in 04 and grew quickly. Then as now, people were saying it
was dead, that Twitter would overtake it, that they would run out of money,
that they would be the next Friendster, MySpace, AOL. It hasn't happened.
They're closing in on 500 million (yes half a _billion_ people use it!), and
still there are nonbelievers.

My not so witty prediction is Facebook will IPO and probably fetch a 200
billion valuation in 2 years and yet still the naysayers will persist, like
flies in China. Some things never change.

~~~
UnknownSource
I totally agree.

Let's face it, we all hate facebook, but there are no good alternatives yet.
Orkut and networks like friendstar are hopeless still, and whilst I'd love to
remove myself from facebook, the reality is that most invitations people
receive to do things are by facebook these days.

I can hardly wait for better alternatives though.

~~~
_delirium
I guess I use it differently, because for my uses, Facebook and Twitter are
almost equal contenders currently. Nobody in my social group ever uses
Facebook invites, so the main thing is the status updates and replies.
Facebook has somewhat of an advantage over Twitter on that still due to: 1.
more generous length limits; and 2. a series of replies to a status going into
a thread instead of the main flat status-update namespace; and 3. "likes" are
a useful way of acknowledging a status without actually replying. Twitter's
main advantage is that it feels less spammy and has nice 3rd-party clients;
I'm always playing whack-a-mole with hiding Zynga games and Quizzes from my FB
feed.

~~~
UnknownSource
Not a fan of Twitter at all honestly.. But thats just me..

------
c00p3r
Hey, even the Mona Lisa is falling apart. =)

Where is myspace,com today?

