
Showdown looms between Silicon Valley, U.S. states over contact tracing apps - ckcheng
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-apps/showdown-looms-between-silicon-valley-u-s-states-over-contact-tracing-apps-idUSKCN22702F
======
mirimir
I agree 100% with the Alphabet/Apple approach. There's no additional absolute
location tracking. But it's easy to get the contact histories for all those
infected.

If health authorities want to identify infection hotspots, they can request
location histories from infected people and their contacts. That's no more
than health authorities have requested in the past. It's just easier to
produce, and more accurate.

------
gundmc
My understanding of the proposal was that no third party including Google and
Apple could access any real information from this. It honestly seemed like
privacy was the primary consideration in the design. I realize that's a losing
perception battle to fight.

~~~
creato
If anything, the approach has prioritized privacy to such a degree that it
probably won't be very helpful. The design seems to require a very high rate
of adoption to be useful, and that probably isn't going to happen unless it is
opt out, which seems unlikely to be the case.

~~~
beefield
I assume these are going to be branded as _completely voluntary_. Like,
completely voluntary until you want to have health insurance, buy a flight
ticket or maybe be employed in certain/most industries. In those cases someone
is going to tell you that, you must to be running the app or whatever tool is
invented to track your contacts.

~~~
encom
I'll be honest, this virus situation has me super scared. Governments
everywhere are giving themselves powers they should not have, and I doubt they
are going to relinquish them once this blows over. Police are acting gestapo-
ish in a lot of places. Meanwhile, Big Tech are developing even creepier ways
to track everyone while pretending to save the world.

In fact, every time some tech company involves themselves with this covid
situation, it rubs me completely the wrong way. Apple, just go back to making
overpriced computers. Twitter, Facebook and Google wants to have the final say
of what is and isn't the ultimate truth, like the goddamn thought police. On
the whole, people are capable of sniffing out bullshit for themselves, and if
they're not, Facebook can't save them from themselves, and convince them that
5G does _not_ cause bat flu. Just stay out of it, and let the medical
professionals sort out this mess.

I think the world has broken, and it won't go together again properly.

~~~
zrobotics
I actually ran across a YouTube comment the other day that was claiming the
bar that comes up below any covid related video was part of their attempts to
suppress the truth. I know that poe's law says it might have been sarcasm, but
somehow I don't think any of the actions the big tech companies have taken
have really done all that much to stop these beliefs.

It might be somewhat the opposite; the classic conspiracy theory meme is that
the powers that be are suppressing the truth. It has been well publicised that
these sites are cracking down on what these people believe to be the truth,
which could easily be taken as evidence that they hold the correct view.

I wish I had some sort of idea of how to prevent this, but as I see it these
sorts of actions are possibly worse than doing nothing. The only positive
thing I've noticed recently is that YouTube has somewhat mitigated the
recommendation algorithm pushing ever-more extreme polarizing content.

------
tlrobinson
> said location data is stored on a Microsoft Azure server that he rents and
> to which only he and one other person have the keys

Sorry, not good enough.

There are privacy-preserving cryptographic solutions to contract tracing.
Anything less is unacceptable.

------
tinus_hn
This is feature creep, now instead of knowing who has been close to infected
people, they ‘need’ to know who has been close to whom and where many people
have been close to each other.

Hardly surprising governments can’t stop talking about this once in a lifetime
opportunity of peeking inside everyones private lives. Surely this information
would _never_ become available to secret services..

------
devonproctor
We're taking an approach that empowers individuals to take their data out of
big tech companies and contribute it directly to their local healthcare
providers and public health agencies:
[https://www.covidcontacttracing.com/](https://www.covidcontacttracing.com/).

This approach is highly practical -- the penetration (location history in
Android, Google Maps) is already there, and we've already built out a set of
tools around it to deliver insights to first-responders, epidemiologists and
doctors, while ensuring individual privacy.

I think the only way to do effective contact tracing while respecting
individual privacy and agency is to put the user in control of the data, and
make sure that any data transfer is done with consent and deliberation.

~~~
xiphias2
,,the only way to do effective contact tracing while respecting individual
privacy and agency''

The problem is that the government wants to achieve just the opposite. They
see the current crisis as a way to extend their power over people, and intend
to do that as much as they can get away with.

~~~
jariel
"They see the current crisis as a way to extend their power over people, and
intend to do that as much as they can get away with."

Where is your evidence for this?

While it's always a risk, I see people trying to mitigate a crisis the likes
of which none of us have ever seen.

There are literally _billions_ of people _locked in their homes_ and there is
_no feasible plan_ to get out. 'Contact tracing' Korea style is the only
proven option on the table.

There's no reason to believe reasonable operational elements can't be put in
place.

~~~
xiphias2
I'm from a country that just made dictatorship official (Hungary), took away
most money from the opposition, raided hundreds of big companies with the
Hungarian military while keeping the companies secret, distributed more PPE
outside the country than inside for us.

In US the states are fighting for getting PPE for the doctors (fighting over
millions of dollars), while the FED increased the balance sheet by more than
70% (trillions of dollars) to prop up big zombie companies that were already
highly overvalued, bailed out Blackrock investments instead of paying salaries
for people who they want to stay home.

I'm right now in France, where people are getting their paychecks every month
normally, just not from their employer, but the government.

Regarding south Korea, I read an earlier interview where he doesn't understand
why the western world doesn't use masks (basically he called us stupid, just
didn't say the word).

Masks were working 100 years ago, and everybody had one, I just don't believe
that the government couldn't have ramped up production if they really wanted
instead of just thinking of their investments potentially losing value.

~~~
jariel
\+ Hungary is obviously problematic but most Western countries are not
relevant.

\+ Your comment about US PPE is completely wrong: the issue is not a lack of
money, it's the scarcity of the resource.

\+ France is teetering on real bankruptcy, and will have vicious unemployment,
low wages and not a lot of opportunity while the US will rebound quite well
(inequality notwithstanding). PS I lived in France as well. Their socialised
medical program is obviously good, but France is broken and poor. I now live
in Montreal where there are tons of French citizens flooding in looking for
jobs.

\+ The masks issue may or may not be relevant - it's certainly not the primary
factor. Absolutely without question the aggressive contact-tracing/testing
done by the South Korea teams is 'the gold star' in terms of Covid response.

Contact-tracing is the _only known solution_ to the problem and frankly it
work well, people have to work together.

As for Hungary ... there are 20 other problems you get to before the problem
of 'the government has my location'. First - the government already knows
where you already knows where you are if you're there -> you're at home!
Second - you need a functional and intelligent governmental apparatus to do
the 'contact tracing' system. Lots of people, lots of procedures. Hungary
probably doesn't have the capability. FYI they probably don't have the
capability to do a whole lot with location data anyhow.

~~~
xiphias2
> FYI they probably don't have the capability to do a whole lot with location
> data anyhow.

I thought before that Hungary won't be able to implement a survaillance state
that fast, because the government doesn't have any IT capability, but what's
happening is even scarier: they started outsourcing it to Chinese companies,
and I wouldn't be surprised to see that trend continuing.

~~~
xiphias2
I believe that Palantir is behind China in surveillence software (especially
gathering data about people from public cameras, but of course using GPS data
is much easier.

Of course the funniest thing is that the name of the surveillence software is
SkyNet, because the CEO of the company loves Terminator.

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLo3e1Pak-Y](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLo3e1Pak-Y)

------
tempsy
The only way something like this would even be useful is if the majority of
the population voluntarily downloaded this and opted-in to it.

Does anyone think that’s actually realistic? I’m not optimistic.

~~~
ojbyrne
If it becomes a condition of employment people will opt in. Just like peeing
in a cup.

~~~
walterbell
Some would. Some would choose different jobs or jurisdictions.

~~~
pmontra
I won't bet on that for more than a few people. What if they live in a country
mandating an app like that to be able to get out of home? And even if that's
going to be voluntary, I don't expect many people to move to another state or
country or be jobless for more time because of privacy concerns. I mean,
they'll be concerned but they'll still install the app when they have to.

~~~
walterbell
Americans have the option of filing lawsuits. The US attorney general said
that the federal government may join lawsuits filed by businesses against
states, for constitutional issues.

It's not about "privacy" or an "app". It's about core principles upon which
countries and states were founded. These principles and laws are not optional.
History has many lessons for those who surrender principles. People lost their
jobs and much much more.

~~~
cinquemb
As an american that has avoided jobs, people and now living abroad, I'm
willing to subvert, corrupt, and exploit technology by these tech companies
against their own employees, owners, useds and teach others around me how to
go about doing it if got out of hand (which I think it will eventually). This
might diverge from the current tech group think zigiest, and I'm ok with that,
because I think these tools should ultimately empower everyone to be able to
work together if they chose to do so and accept the fact that some people may
not, as apposed to levered by the few against the masses.

Because of the asymmetric reach of tech, I think the few like me, have an
advantage that most aren't willing to explore the ramifications of.

"Freedom ain't free, especially 'round my way"

------
slowdog
This is one of the great parts of America, personal liberties. But
simultaneously one of the downsides of the individual > whole scheme,
sometimes sacrifices hurt the individual but are good for the whole.

Quite the conundrum, once you go down the whole > individual route, where do
you stop?

~~~
zaroth
The Constitution actually has a framework for this. For individual liberties,
any limits must pass “strict scrutiny”. Warrants must not be general, but must
be _particular_ in the persons and places to be searched.

So in short, IANAL, but I doubt the government could ever require such an app
be built. However, there’s nothing short of market forces stopping the major
tech companies from building the dragnet and deploying it in an OS update to
billions of devices completely voluntarily.

...Unless, perhaps, there’s a privacy or data protection framework that might
happen to apply but which doesn’t get immediately waived for this application?

~~~
swasheck
If market forces demand some sort of contact tracing application, but it
largely violates Constitutional ethos, can the “business” be declared
Unconstitutional? Is that even in the purview of the Constitution? I wouldn’t
imagine so, but I’m just musing on the topic. When our foundational ethic runs
in direct conflict with our economic ethic, which takes priority?

~~~
a1369209993
> can the “business” be declared Unconstitutional?

Strictly speaking the business would be criminal (like a protection racket or
slave market), but noone ever enforces that, so it's a bit of moot point.

------
zaroth
Are there any studies, or even computer models, which attempt to estimate the
efficacy of contact tracing in a pandemic which already has double-digit
prevalence?

> _Some public health leaders and infectious disease doctors are questioning
> the timing of this launch. Galea said contact tracing is usually more
> effective at the beginning of an epidemic, before a disease like the
> coronavirus has spread._

> _“I don’t know that it’s too late, it’s certainly late,” he says. “Had we
> had the tests and were we organized enough to do contact tracing right up
> front, it would have potentially taken us down a very different path in this
> epidemic.”_

While we roll out the red carpet for the most invasive dragnet ever created,
do we have any scientific reason to think it will be effective?

~~~
walterbell
As Naval said,
[https://twitter.com/naval/status/1252185901087592448](https://twitter.com/naval/status/1252185901087592448)

 _> Recent serology studies may be wrong. But if wrong, they‘re all wrong _in
the same direction_.

    
    
      Finnish: 20-50x undercount
      Scottish: 27-55x
      Stanford: 50-85x
      Italian: 30x
      Mass: 17x
      Germany: 0.37% CFR
      Denmark: 0.21%
    

> If true, COVID19 has much more spread and much lower fatality._

So we have consistent data showing that the risk is much lower. Could we
update our now-incorrect models that were used to justify contact tracing and
Palantir social network analysis?

If we don't trust these expensive studies that all point in the same
direction, why should we trust Bluetooth? If we don't trust the tests used in
the above studies, how can we use _those exact tests_ to forcibly quarantine
not only the people who "test positive" but their entire Palantir contact
chain?

It would be helpful if we can pick one mathematical dystopia and stick with
it. The math-rhetoric dissonance is deafening.

~~~
zucker42
The Stanford study does not tell us 50-85x. The results they provided "have no
known statistical provenance as of now".
[https://twitter.com/wfithian/status/1252692365967384576](https://twitter.com/wfithian/status/1252692365967384576)

~~~
walterbell
As Naval said, if the studies are wrong, they are all wrong in the same
direction.

A good use of contact tracing would be to point Palantir at the social graphs
on each "side" defending or attacking specific virus studies, looking for
correlations with industry and other ties. Would be a fun project for social
network analysts.

------
rkagerer
The long term ramifications scare me. Even if you use rolling ID's as
suggested, someone with enough data points could infer identity from the
patterns.

This might be more palatable if it were approached in an "old school" fashion.
Start by clarifying your customer is _not_ any public health authority; it's
individual users. I could walk around with a notebook and keep track of
everyone I interact with - even if some strangers aren't recorded by name
(e.g. _Cashier working aisle 6 at 3pm on Thursday_ ). Design the app to mimic
that task and make it easier for me.

I keep sovereignty over my records. If some agency wants them, they have to
request them through _me_. Bake in meaningful, plausible deniability so I can
simply say "sorry, I don't have any" if I don't like the name of the agency.

Better yet, use encryption such that _both_ parties need to consent before any
particular contact link can be inferred.

Make it so secure that you could broadcast the scrambled bits on a blockchain
which any user can view through the lens of their private keys to check if
they might have had contact. In a sense, this problem shares some
characteristics with zero-knowledge proofs or anonymized financial
transactions (all I need to know is I might have been exposed; not any details
of how Covid found its way to me). Consider lessons learned hardening against
crypto tracing efforts.

If people feel it's safe, effective and anonymous, enough may even opt-in
organically of their own accord.

------
walterbell
From [https://blog.xot.nl/2020/04/19/google-apple-contact-
tracing-...](https://blog.xot.nl/2020/04/19/google-apple-contact-tracing-gact-
a-wolf-in-sheeps-clothes/)

 _> It is one thing to agree on a few best practices for contact tracing and
force app providers to adhere to those standards. It is quite another to bake
that standard into the operating system layer, active in the background, ready
to be deployed. We have to trust Apple and Google to diligently perform this
strict vetting of apps, to resist any coercion by governments_

There are countless attacks on Bluetooth. GPS is not accurate enough for
contact tracing. The data will not be reliable.

Imagine the lawsuits when dozens of people are required to mandatory
quarantine _away from home_ when someone (who they may not know) tests
positive?

Proposal for MA use of contact tracing data (MIT is in MA and they have
contributed to protocol design),
[https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/03/contact-
tracing...](https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/03/contact-tracing-
coronavirus-massachusetts-baker)

 _> then there’s the question of how to keep people who test positive isolated
so that they don’t transmit the coronavirus. Some people will have room to
isolate at home. But others who share bathrooms, kitchens and bedrooms, or who
live with someone at increased risk for a severe case of COVID-19, will be
given some options. The Baker administration is looking at setting up
isolation units in dormitories and hotels. People in isolation will need food
delivery, possibly child care and lots of additional help so that they don’t
interact with others._

Don't most homes share kitchens? Where are the dual-kitchen homes and
apartments? This means virtually everyone who was within six feet of a
positive contact would be isolated away from their home/family. So that can't
scale, because there aren't enough quarantine hotels/dorms to house the entire
population.

Every other pandemic in the history of pandemics focused on isolating high-
risk groups. That is more practical than Tracing Theatre.

~~~
Cpoll
We also had an article today about a Bluetooth RCE:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22971863](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22971863)

~~~
walterbell
Even Singapore, a virtual police state, barely got 20% of people to use
contact tracing apps.

As a silver lining, if Apple/Google surrender location privacy on their
platforms, it might finally give Purism and the other "libre" phones a chance
in the marketplace. And those $1000 flagship "mobile" phones can be replaced
by a $300 iPad without a GPS.

As for the "kids" who "don't care" about privacy? Ask them that question after
their first unnecessary 2 week quarantine-in-isolation-hotel due to glitchy
bluetooth.

~~~
Mediterraneo10
> As a silver lining, if Apple/Google surrender location privacy on their
> platforms, it might finally give Purism and the other "libre" phones a
> chance in the marketplace. And those $1000 flagship "mobile" phones can be
> replaced by a $300 iPad without a GPS.

There has been speculation that if some European countries make a contact-
tracing app obligatory for everyone or for some subset of people, saying “My
phone doesn’t run Android apps” will be no excuse. If you don't have a
smartphone that can run the required app, then you will be given a Bluetooth
fob instead and told to carry that around.

~~~
zucker42
That's incredibly dystopic. Do you have a link?

~~~
Mediterraneo10
It has been several weeks now since I read the article that I had in mind, but
I have found this other article[0] on the use of wristbands to enforce
quarantines, and towards the end it mentions the possibility of wristbands for
contact tracing that I posted about above. It is easy to assume that if such
tech exists, then governments will expect you to use it if you are one of
those weirdos like us (or very elderly) who don't have an Apple or Android
smartphone.

[0]
[https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-52409893](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-52409893)

~~~
walterbell
SmartFence! It could zap the wearer when they get within 6 feet 6 inches of
another human. That ensures no crossing of the six foot boundary and cuts down
on expensive quarantines and contact tracing. Also teaches obedience and
deters shoplifting.

------
russli1993
For me, my argument is this: yes the contact tracing apps could infringe on my
privacy rights as an individual. But app could be effective in notifying
potential exposed individuals. If that individual knows this information,
he/she can take the right action to protect him/herself and his/her family.
Thus the app protects people's right to live and right to good health. I know
people always talk about right to free speech and movement etc, but I believe
right to live is another human right, in fact, its the most important human
right. Rights to free speech is useless if you are dead. Second, when the
virus is not growing exponentially, this contact tracing capability would
allows us to quickly stop emerging outbreaks, then we can feel comfortable to
stop stay at home orders and open up the economy. Therefore, the app also
protects right to movement.

So its a trade off, would you want to trade privacy rights to right to live
and right to move? For me, it is yes.

In addition, we know that we can reduce the risk of privacy infringement by
designing the system properly, as they are doing it here. We could also use
block chain technology to implement the database so that no central authority
can know which exact individual has been to where. The database could also not
store personally identifiable information. We could use cryptographic
computing techniques so that no one, not even the software engineers working
the project can know which person has been to where.

I know people are scared about the potential privacy infringement here. But if
we don't try to come up with effective ways to stop the spread of the virus,
there are people dying due to getting sick. And there are families who could
not feed themselves because we shut down the economy.

~~~
fg6hr
That's the good old choice between safety and freedom.

~~~
gremlinsinc
It's more like which type of freedom do you want...right now we're anything
but free. I mean you can freely move about w/ a privacy sucking app, or you
can stay home in quarantine indefinitely but keep your privacy - but we know
where you're at - you're at home, duh.

They need to tie these w/ an UBI at least then people are getting something
for their privacy unlike FB which basically steals your data and sells it.

~~~
dchyrdvh
I'd rather let people follow the social distancing policy and stop this mental
gymnastics about the necessity of tracking. P.S. I'm in the US, so I can
actually freely move now.

------
alfiedotwtf
Remember when the CIA did fake swab tests in Pakistan to promote vaccinations,
but it was just a smokescreen to catch Osama Bin Laden? Yeah, no... I’m not
trusting PRISM Partners to enable this on any of my devices

~~~
mehrdadn
Not commenting on the underlying issue, but regarding the comparison, it's a
little bit unreasonable to think they're trying to pull the same thing here.

------
nytesky
I know my phone and location is tracked heavily for advertising and such. If I
care to be anonymous I leave phone home and carry cash. Even then there are
cameras everywhere.

So i expect this location data likely tracked either way, so might as well go
to help the greater good.

~~~
rlt
Sigh. This is exactly the attitude that leads to the erosion of civil
liberties.‘

2010: "It's just a private company doing it for advertising, why not?"

2020: "Eh, private companies are already doing it, might as well let
government have access for contact tracing, just temporarily."

2022: "The government has had access to my location data for the past 2 years,
nothing bad has happened to me yet, and they say it's necessary to continue
fighting future outbreaks. Might as well keep giving them access".

------
ratsmack
Many people don't have smart phones and, like me, many people don't always
take their phone with them everywhere they go.

~~~
partiallypro
You're still in the vast minority of people in the US. Even my 65+ year old
parents have smart phones.

------
pocket
Cause data has never leaked from cloud server storage rented by individuals or
companies before… oh, wait… (but trust him, it’s just him and a buddy who have
access, what could possibly go wrong).

------
corporateslave5
Seems like all I read about on hacker news is big techs negative effect on
society. When did this website become so negative about all this? The google
bashing was one thing, but now it’s all surveillance and censorship. Where’s
the startup talk? Programming language talk? Open source code?

~~~
partiallypro
Because in start-ups, the tech world, and programming we have to weigh
morality and society benefits sometimes.

~~~
perl4ever
You're replying to someone with the user name "corporateslave5" who is asking
why everybody is so negative about tech corporations.

------
xenonite
And for what? Bluetooth does not help to sufficiently trace airflow. It
doesn’t recognize walls. The data will be highly unreliable.

Nonetheless, people will be forced to use it because social and work pressure
let’s them do so.

Infections will rise again though because people and politicians assume it is
safe enough.

So it’s only use is for the Big Brother watching you.

If Apple and Google can’t manage to keep their platform privacy conscious,
this may even set an the end to the smartphone era. An old Nokia is waiting in
the drawer already.

~~~
iso947
It will be of some use - at least as a placebo if nothing else.

------
redis_mlc
> “Some people are completely opposed to an intrusion on privacy but there’s a
> younger generation sharing their location on dozens of apps,” Burgum said.

Funny, when you tell young people that by the time they leave the food court,
descend the escalator and exit the mall, 100 companies know what, where and
when they bought dinner, they stop using digital payments.

~~~
aspenmayer
But do they also turn off their phones while shopping? Just kidding, that
would be an absurd overreaction. Surely they at least do the responsible thing
and turn off Bluetooth and WiFi? No?

If the kids are alright, it’s in an ignorance is bliss kinda way.

~~~
redis_mlc
Your last sentence is so true.

For those who don't know what I'm talking about, retailers sell their
purchases info to Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc. who can then combine your
email inbox and browing history with your purchase data.

About as "1984" as you can get.

~~~
aspenmayer
We’re part of some Google Business listing navigation program or AdWords
conversion tracking program at work. We applied and got a postcard with a two-
factor code in our business mailbox. We validated our address in this way.
Later we received what appears to be either a Bluvison (now HID) BVBLN5W-IDT
or BVBI45W-IDT. The former does BLE beacon functions and motion detection. The
latter does even more:

Motion, Light, Vibration (3-axis, up to 800 hz), Magnetometer, Temperature
-13° to +149° F (-25° to +65° C)

I’m guessing for the Google program we are part of, we got the BVBLN5W-IDT.
It’s available for $31.20 USD in quantities of 20 or less direct from the
vendor HID, “for demo purposes only,” of course. Here’s some info I found
about it and the Google programs.

FCC info

[https://fcc.io/SL6-BEEKSIBEEK](https://fcc.io/SL6-BEEKSIBEEK)

Datasheet

[https://www.hidglobal.com/sites/default/files/resource_files...](https://www.hidglobal.com/sites/default/files/resource_files/idt-
hid-bluvision-beeks-beacons-ds-en.pdf)

Google Project Beacon info related to the My Business program

[https://developers.google.com/beacons/place-
visits](https://developers.google.com/beacons/place-visits)

Google My Business program beacon setup guide

[https://support.google.com/google-
ads/answer/7577917?hl=en](https://support.google.com/google-
ads/answer/7577917?hl=en)

A video that goes over the pack-in documents and the beacon and what it does

[https://youtube.com/watch?v=tm2Qr0e_JV8](https://youtube.com/watch?v=tm2Qr0e_JV8)

Who made the beacon we got

[https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20161201005500/en/HID...](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20161201005500/en/HID-
Global-Acquires-Bluvision-Expand-Bluetooth-Solutions)

------
jariel
A roundabout solution might be to only allow people out of quarantine if they
have an acceptable contact tracing solution so that if they become infected
they can notify others - and - others can notify them. Then see how supply and
demand work that out ... (although it would, of course, take too long).

If the draft can exist, so can contract-tracing, it's a matter of context and
proportionality. Right now the greater good favours contact tracing though
probably not after the pandemic dies down.

~~~
GhostVII
I think it is pretty dangerous to tell the entire population that their
choices are either to install an app which tracks their movement, or
essentially be under house arrest. Even outside of the privacy issues, some
people just don't have the capabilities to do that, my grandmother is never
going to figure out how to work a phone, or get set up and monitor a contact
tracing app. Maybe we could provide a free alternative that protects your
privacy, eg. wearing a mask whenever you are in public.

~~~
jariel
The choice right now is 'stay inside or die'.

Just 'wearing masks in public' is obviously not a solution or else we'd be
doing it, or someone else would and we'd have evidence that it works, but just
the opposite.

Without a vaccine, our options are extremely limited.

'Universal Contact Tracing' with testing follow up is employed in Korea and
it's the only solution that has been shown to work (other than total
eradication like Taiwan, but you need very strong borders for that).

So 'right now' if we had our act together, we could probably start to loosen
up, so long as we had contact tracing - and teams ready to follow up on those
'positive tested' so that their contacts can be traced etc..

Just like with everything, there are winners and losers.

It wouldn't cost much to get granny a SIM+cheap mobile, and let her know all
she has to do is 'keep it on' for her own safety. She can do that with some
help.

~~~
GhostVII
Pretty much every freedom you give to people will cause more deaths, and that
was true before COVID-19. You could make the same argument you are making now
to justify requiring everyone to be tracked during a regular flu season - flu
deaths are certainly lower, but still in the tens of thousands and could be
reduced with contact tracing. Personally I think there is almost no scenario
in which it is OK to deny people access to things like grocery stores, or not
allow them to see their family living elsewhere, because they don't have a
tracking device on their person. It certainly has a cost, but so does things
like end to end encryption, freedom from unreasonable search and seizure, etc.

~~~
jariel
Sorry - but this logic does not add up:

Consider that this radically new environment requires a totally different
social calculus.

>>>>>>>>> _You are denied access to your family right now_ i.e. 'civil
liberties' are already exceedingly curtailed.

How are all these arguments against 'contact tracing' holding up against the
fact you are literally, right now, practically _locked in your home_.

In most places _if you see your family right now you can be fined_. There are
police out there right now checking to make sure you either going to the
grocery store or some other important thing.

Right now you are living under the _most serious curtailment of civil
liberties in American history_. So why are you not screaming against it?

The reason is that here on HN people care about 'government information'. It's
a 'hot button issue' so people react with concern.

>>>>>>>> You could make the same argument you are making now to justify
requiring everyone to be tracked during a regular flu season.

No, absolutely not!

The 'flu' is not existentially destructive to civilization, it's not requiring
you to be locked in your home right now.

COVID is pandemic, which we have 'controlled' by locking down in our homes.
Obviously, this cannot last, so we need a 'solution' to get going.

Masks are not enough and neither will be general social distancing. Absent a
vaccine there are only 2 proven solutions:

1) Eradication (like Taiwan) where nobody but incoming people might have it,
and they keep a very close eye on people coming in.

2) Contact Tracing (like Korea). People can generally move freely, but they
have to have contact tracing and if the gov. requires them to get a test, or
requires them to show their 'social contact history' they have to.

These are the only solution that has proven to work.

The 'lifting' of social measures over the next few months is in the US is
going to be very dangerous because COVID will just come right back again.

The US economy is like an airplane without an engine heading straight for the
ground, like a person who's heart has been stopped. It's going to come apart
at the seams unless something can be done.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The Choice

So the choice is:

1) Open up and have the pandemic come back 2) Stay in your home, the economy
tailspins, it falls apart, the country falls apart 3) Vaccine 4) An aggressive
social policy that works, the only one on the table seems to be Korea.

Obviously there are problems with 'social tracing' and government involvement,
but in light of the existential problem we face, they are small.

------
KCUOJJQJ
The C virus is as severe as a severe flu. It makes no sense to turn devices
into surveillance devices a little bit / a lot / completely. Google and Apple
will also lose trust if they do it.

Edit: The C virus is a deadly disease and the flu is a deadly disease. Google
and Apple must be sure that it's useful to have this tracking in this
situation. If it was not useful in this situation the 2 companies would lose
trust. From [1], which is a good article again and again because it demands
decisions based on data:

 _If we decide to jump off the cliff, we need some data to inform us about the
rationale of such an action and the chances of landing somewhere safe._

[1] [https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-
making-a...](https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-
the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-
data/)

