
Bitcoin Surges Past $400 - Timshel
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/11/03/bitbeat-bitcoin-surges-past-400-on-back-of-the-new-shining-star/
======
csomar
There is nothing that can guarantee that this ride is real, but here are a few
things:

1\. However big is MMM, it's probably too small for the size of the bitcoin
economy right now. Remember that if you are transacting in bitcoin, there is
one party buying and the other one selling. So you are not rising the price to
the moon.

2\. The number of transactions has been growing again as of late. It's heating
at the blockchain right now (
[https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions](https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions)
). With 1MB, bitcoin can support less than 300k transactions a day.

3\. The total output volume is jumping to crazy levels (
[https://blockchain.info/charts/output-
volume?timespan=all&sh...](https://blockchain.info/charts/output-
volume?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=)
) only seen in bubbles.

4\. I have a localbitcoins post. I usually get 1-2 requests per week. In the
last few days, well, I really lost count.

5\. Google trends is spiking:
[https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin](https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin)
But maybe this is happening because bitcoin price is rising, not the other way
around?

6\. If the price is rising fast, the supply will dry because nobody wants to
sell an appreciating asset. If an asset is appreciating, it'll drive demand.
Which will drive the price higher.

7\. Media will start talking about it. It'll drive more people. It'll drive
the price more.

8\. We'll see if the new fancy infrastructure that bitcoin got is rock-solid.

9\. If you don't own the keys, you don't own the bitcoins.

10\. It's nice, but only if you bought the dip and sold before the crash.

~~~
jcfrei
> However big is MMM, it's probably too small for the size of the bitcoin
> economy right now [...]

That's very hard to quantify, but there might well be a feedback loop
involving the media which leads to a price increase caused by MMM Global.

The following Google Trends data for South Africa and the Philippines shows a
nice correlation between searches for bitcoin and MMM Global:
[http://www.google.com/trends/explore?hl=en-
US&geo=ZA&cmpt=q&...](http://www.google.com/trends/explore?hl=en-
US&geo=ZA&cmpt=q&q=bitcoin,+MMM+Global&tz=Etc/GMT-1&content=1)

~~~
csomar
That's why I used "probably".

The thing is, transacting with bitcoin will not raise the price exponentially.
BTC is already being exchanged in many millions of dollars a day.

So unless MMM turns out to be a billion-dollar ponzi scheme I don't really
think it'll affect the BTC price much.

~~~
rsynnott
> So unless MMM turns out to be a billion-dollar ponzi scheme

While I don't know much about this incarnation of MMM, the original MMM ponzi
scheme in the early 90s is thought to have taken in about $10bn (not adjusted
for inflation).

~~~
nosuchthing
Never heard of MMM before,

Looks like Sergei is persistant with these pyramid schemes;

    
    
      In January 2011, Mavrodi launched another pyramid scheme 
      called MMM-2011, asking investors to buy so-called Mavro 
      currency units. He frankly described it as a pyramid, 
      adding "It is a naked scheme, nothing more ... People 
      interact with each other and give each other money. For 
      no reason!"[13] Mavrodi said that his goal with MMM-2011 
      is to destroy the current financial system, which he 
      considers unfair, which would allow something new to take 
      its place. MMM-2011 was able to function openly as Ponzi 
      schemes and financial pyramids are not illegal under 
      Russian law.[14] In May 2012 he froze the operation and 
      announced that there would be no more payouts.[15]
    
    
      In 2011 he launched a similar scheme in India, called MMM 
      India, again stating clearly that the vehicle is a 
      pyramid.[16] He has also launched MMM in China.[17] He 
      was reported to be trying to expand his operations into 
      Western Europe, Canada, and Latin America.[14] As of 
      September 2015 it had spread rapidly in South Africa with 
      a claimed 1% per day or 30% per month interest rate 
      scheme and warnings from both the South African and 
      Russian Communist Parties for people not to participate 
      in it.[18]
    

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMM-2011](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMM-2011)

Active thread talking about Sergei's current scheme:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3p4kuf/mmm_global_...](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3p4kuf/mmm_global_republic_of_bitcoin/)

------
est
The China factor behind this "surge" is because this
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMM_(Ponzi_scheme_company)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMM_\(Ponzi_scheme_company\))
started doing business in China. It's growing very huge.

~~~
mikeyouse
There are thousands of videos popping up on YouTube with how much money these
people have 'made' on MMM Global, it's sad to see;

[https://www.youtube.com/results?lclk=week&search_query=mmm+g...](https://www.youtube.com/results?lclk=week&search_query=mmm+global+pays&filters=week)

It's very likely a big part of the price increase, many of the local MMM sites
advertise that they're bitcoin-only and all of the exchanges are
extraordinarily shallow so small surges in demand really move prices.

Here's a pretty good article from a mid October predicting the huge run-up
based on interest in MMM and how they reward posts to social media where
people show off how much they've "made":

[https://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/post/mmm-global-republic-
of...](https://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/post/mmm-global-republic-of-bitcoin-
cryptos-next-scandal)

If anyone pays for better website analytics, I bet you'd find a pretty
striking increase in the MMMGlobal rankings in the past month or so that
corresponds pretty strongly with bitcoin price. One more note is that the
exact same price runup happened in July with Litecoin based on a different
Chinese ponzi scheme:

[http://www.dailytradingprofits.com/4669/was-litecoin-
pumped-...](http://www.dailytradingprofits.com/4669/was-litecoin-pumped-by-a-
chinese-ponzi-scheme/)

~~~
simias
Thank you for those links.

It's crazy that people are falling for this even though they reuse the MMM
brand and feature Sergei Mavrodi prominently. A simple google search should
tell you what you need to know about the company and the people running it.
It's sad really.

~~~
drewm1980
I thought google wasn't doing business in China. Could be a local search
engine is getting kickbacks, or a cut of a the ad revenue.

------
g8oz
The Economist had a cover story last week on blockchain tech.
[http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21677198-technology-
be...](http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21677198-technology-behind-
bitcoin-could-transform-how-economy-works-trust-machine)

I'm sure that helped.

------
julianpye
That may become the fastest journey across the Gartner trough of
disillusionment that I have seen. So it answers Fred Wilsons's question at
[http://avc.com/2014/09/the-bitcoin-hype-cycle/](http://avc.com/2014/09/the-
bitcoin-hype-cycle/)

~~~
notahacker
From Wilson's blog you'd conclude the opposite though, that the speed of the
journey across the Gartner trough of disillusionment had been much slower and
dragged much deeper into the trough than he'd been expecting at the time.

Wilson thought it was "well into" the trough phase by Sep 2014, with the price
around ~$400 after one mini-recovery proved illusory. It then halved again,
and has taken more than a year for this latest mini recovery to take it up to
the heady heights of the bottom of Wilson's "trough"...

That trough sure looks long compared with that brief late 2013 spike....
[http://www.coindesk.com/price/#2010-07-18,2015-11-03,close,b...](http://www.coindesk.com/price/#2010-07-18,2015-11-03,close,bpi,USD)

------
TomGullen
I find it ironic that if MMM is having an impact on the price, that irrational
actors (people buying into MMM) are inflating the price of Bitcoin (mainly
promoted by libertarians).

Anyway, the up swing is impressive now and can't be dismissed as normal
volatilty:
[https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitfinex/btcusd](https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitfinex/btcusd)

There will be a big drop at some point, no one really wants to sell when it's
rising like this. This sort of upward movement is exactly why a lot of people
have bought Bitcoin. Trying to time the top will be hard though. I imagine a
subsequent drop of ~25% would be likely.

It's fun to be back at a time of thinking about when to sell again.

~~~
celticninja
If it is MMM driven then at some point the organisers will want to cash out, a
huge dump/sell of coins across multiple exchanges would kill the price,
however they are unlikely to be able to sell all of their coins so it would
hurt their remaining assets. A slow sell off would make more sense but given
the illegal nature of the scheme they may not have a choice in the matter.

~~~
hippich
they have to cash out all the time, since they need to keep paying their
members to get more youtube videos about "MMM pays XXX $"

------
LoSboccacc
I keep biting my finger off, trading bitcoins seems so nice but to enter you
need to give RID access to shady merchant, which is a bummer.

Anyone know an exchange where btc can be bought simply with paypal?

~~~
TimSchumann
Ranked in order of my preference.

[https://www.coinbase.com/global](https://www.coinbase.com/global) \- Initial
setup can be slow, as with identity verification, but once you're set up
buying is relatively painless. Withdrawing can sometimes be slow, expect to
wait 2 to 5 business days after purchasing before you can withdraw. _Shadiness
Level - Just shady enough it might work. 4.5 stars would cupcake again. (They
're a YC company too, so you'd be helping, airquotes, the cause - as it were._

[https://www.bitstamp.net/](https://www.bitstamp.net/) \- Better for trading,
more like an actual exchange whereas Coinbase is much more of a broker/dealer.
(Correct me if I'm wrong on that someone who would know better) _Shadiness
Level - Low. They 're venture backed, Slovenian based, and good peoples in my
experience._

[https://btc-e.com/](https://btc-e.com/) \- Great for variety of coins traded.
Based on my experience I'd recommend. That being said... _Shadiness Level -
Moderate. Nobody really knows who runs the site, although there has been
speculation. I think they 're based out of Russia._

[https://www.bitfinex.com/](https://www.bitfinex.com/) \- This would be my go
to for actual trading if I wanted to make/lose a lot of money. Based in
Singapore IIRC. _Shadiness Level - Low from what I 've heard, just low on the
list because I haven't had any personal experience with them. Something about
Singapore and Financial makes me think of super villains though._

[https://localbitcoins.com/](https://localbitcoins.com/) \- Limited by who is
selling in your area, have to meet in person, cash only, and markup is usually
high. (5% to 7.5% above market) _Shadiness Level - hit-or-miss, ranges from
awesome people to scum of the earth types. Make sure you meet in a public
place._

~~~
corin_
At least in the UK and France, localbitcoins.com let's sellers/buyers use
alternatives to meeting with cash, for example direct bank transfer, or some
apps we have (like Barclays PingIt in the UK) - the coins go into the site's
escrow and the seller releases them once money comes in - which is usually
instantly, unlike in America I guess. Not sure how prices or UI compares to
other options, but certainly no shadiness if using it that way.

~~~
hackerboos
America has ACH transfers, Canada as interac.

Problem with all of these is that they can be reversed.

------
jbssm
Actually the break of price parity between China and Western exchanges is
historically very bad news for bitcoin. It will mark China as purely
speculative and will break ties with the only force that was keeping the price
at the 300 USD level in the past months.

It's similar to what happened with MTGox. When the price parity was over
(although there was always a ~1-2% premium on MtGox price) bitcoin crashed
hard and never recovered.

------
amelius
Could somebody comment on how "future proof" the bitcoin technology really is?
How large can the trading volumes become, and is there a limit? What advances
have been made in crypto-currencies that will replace bitcoin?

~~~
kristofferR
Bitcoin is in constant development, so it's a hard question to answer.

If Bitcoin core development suddenly stopped right now it wouldn't be very
future proof. Trading volumes are irrelevant from a scaling perspective, what
matters is number of transactions per second (tps). Right now Bitcoin has a
really low capacity, just 7tps, way below VISA for example.

However, progress is underway on creating the Lightning Network [2], which
will enable billions of transactions per day. Just 11 days ago a major
requirement of the Lightning network was merged into Bitcoin core, and things
are moving fairly quickly in the right direction.

[1]
[https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Scalability](https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Scalability)

[2] [https://lightning.network/](https://lightning.network/)

I doubt anything will replace Bitcoin, further crypto-currency advances will
likely be built on top of it (like the Lightning Network and sidechains).
Ethereum is looking incredibly promising (has been dubbed Bitcoin 2.0), but I
think it will be used primarily as a blockchain programming framework instead
of as an alternative currency.

~~~
mike_hearn
Lightning isn't going to happen any time soon. Bear in mind it's not even
block chain based, nodes are stateful and control signing keys, and no
existing software works with it.

Lightning will require entirely new wallets to be created for it, and those
wallets will be very complicated. It's a multi-year project at most.

The reality is that Bitcoin will fall apart if too much load is placed on it,
and it's getting closer to its (entirely arbitrary) 1mb scale ceiling too fast
for comfort.

~~~
thescriptkiddie
The good news is that support for BIP 101 is growing fast, so we should see
larger blocks sooner rather than later. If the tps limit is reached before
then, we will likely see increased adoption of micropayment channels, since
most transactions at the moment are quite small.

------
Marazan
Hmm, time o check the googlentrends "bitcoin" chart vs the bitcoin price chart
again. They had a 1to1 correlation last time I looked.

EDIT: Just went back to look and peek Google Trends interest in Bitcoin
happens prior to peek Bitcoin price so public interest leads Bitcoin price as
I suggest. Trends crash before the price does.

~~~
tjbiddle
Correlation does not imply causation.

~~~
Marazan
You're the kind of person who upon seeing a gun shot victim and as the coroner
says, " He was killed by a bullet entering the body and piercing the heart"
would shout out "Correlation does not imply causation" reflexively.

Do you really not think the general population's interest in bitcoin has any
effect on the price?

~~~
verroq
Or maybe price is driving the interest?

~~~
vanderZwan
Perfectly fair question, but I _highly_ doubt there would be a 1:1 causal
relation from BC price to twitter mentions of it. Trending topics are more of
a critical-mass "hashtags trending with exponential growth" kind of thing.

~~~
makomk
Nearly all the Twitter mentions of it I've seen lately were people talking
about the price rise.

------
chrisbennet
Bitcoin seems more like a speculative commodity than a currency. As long as
Bitcoin is experiencing such instability, how can it be useful as a currency?

~~~
Synaesthesia
It's been stable for a long time before this jump, and over much of its
history. Yeah it is disruptive!

It's very easy to use as a currency since it's the only way you can send value
instantly around the globe with almost no cost and without any regulatory
issues.

~~~
chrisbennet
Ok, that makes more sense. Thanks.

------
jdc
Coincidentally, the Economist published two articles on Bitcoin two days ago,
one of which was featured on the front page print edition (which I just got in
the mail today).

[http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21677198-technology-
be...](http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21677198-technology-behind-
bitcoin-could-transform-how-economy-works-trust-machine)

[http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21677228-technology-b...](http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21677228-technology-
behind-bitcoin-lets-people-who-do-not-know-or-trust-each-other-build-
dependable)

~~~
jdc
Too late to edit now, but it turns out the articles were actually published
_four_ days ago.

------
sfjailbird
There is a LOT of talk about "blockchain technology" going around these days.
It seems like another "cloud", i.e. some vague concept that consultants can
sell to CTOs who are afraid of appearing behind the technology curve. New
clothes for the emperor.

Since bitcoin is the reference implementation of "blockchain technology"
obviously all this interest rubs off. And since bitcoin at this point is all
promise without much reality behind it (like a "pre-monetization" startup), it
is a great vehicle for hype driven speculation, meaning that any price
increase drives further speculation, until the next hard crash.

~~~
Marazan
The Economist had an article of the magical wonders of the blockchain last
week that kind of skimped on the downsides.

------
xacaxulu
I slowly bought about 25 BTC since January. Honestly this is very exciting
right now and I've basically been daytrading for the last few days. I'm no
expert by any stretch of the imagination, but it's been enjoyable to set
alerts for different price points then buy/sell as necessary. I like the
liquidity and 0 government involvement/taxation - something I couldn't do with
stock/options/CDs etc.

~~~
blantonl
If you convert BTC to $$ or your local currency, expect a tax situation.

~~~
thescriptkiddie
Why would you want to do that when you can just pay for things directly?

~~~
Goronmon
_Why would you want to do that when you can just pay for things directly?_

That doesn't change the fact that in many places you'll still owe taxes,
regardless if you don't cash out in a distinct step somewhere. At least as far
as I understand things.

------
sakopov
I don't know if this is good outside of just pure speculation profit. Bitcoin
seemed to hit a fairly decent stable point around $250 before this new bubble.

------
ca98am79
From a technical standpoint, BTC formed a nice base around $200-$250 over most
of 2015. It was mostly quiet in the news, so it was an ideal time to invest.
Now it is breaking out to the upside of that base. Sell when your neighbor
tells you to invest in bitcoin.

There is a chance the price could go nuts (e.g. $1 million/BTC) - it could be
a serious bubble, because of the technology behind it, and the implications it
could have to the world.

"It is one of the great paradoxes of the stock market that what seems too high
usually goes higher and what seems too low usually goes lower." \- William
O'Neil

------
nvk
For anyone that has been around BTC for long enough, this is expected, but
also expect more rallies and more crashes.

Quick plug: If you are looking for a secure wallet with good privacy for your
fresh Bitcoin, Try [Coinkite
Multisig]([https://coinkite.com/multisig](https://coinkite.com/multisig)), up
to m-of-15, any/all keys can be generated offline, option to escrow backup,
notifications, multi-user-multisig, support, notifications, works well with
Ledgers, and the list goes on!

~~~
dkns
Why was this expected? Care to explain to someone who isn't around BTC?

~~~
bduerst
There's a lot of pump and dumps [1] with bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

[1] [https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/wp-
content/uploads/2014/07/P...](https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/wp-
content/uploads/2014/07/Pump-and-Dump-Char.png)

~~~
Atheros
There is no evidence of a pump currently happening. This is not a pump and
dump.

~~~
bduerst
Right - they asked about Bitcoin in general which is rife with pump and dumps.

The bubble right now is mostly a response to the MMM buzz.

------
jarboot
The little pile of bitcoins I had laying around from a couple weeks ago has
doubled in price. Should I spend them now in anticipation of a bubble bursting
or wait for the price to possibly go up?

~~~
godzillabrennus
As with any volatile investment you should get out when you are ahead, or in
need of the money. You may lose out on further gains but the likelihood of
another crash is high. It's better to win than lose.

~~~
aianus
> It's better to win than lose.

Mathematically that's just not true. In objective terms not winning an extra
$100 is exactly the same as losing $100.

This psychological fallacy (called 'loss aversion') is the primary reason the
average player loses at poker. They're afraid of losing $100 when they might
be behind but they constantly fail to extract that extra $100 value bet when
they know they're likely ahead.

------
bkolobara
And it's starting again. Kraken is now down for me
[http://i.imgur.com/quLUvxf.png](http://i.imgur.com/quLUvxf.png)

------
nosuchthing
Normal people don't buy groceries with bitcoins.

Actually I don't think I've ever seen a local brick & mortar business
advertise their ability or willingness to accept BTC.

------
edward
The price is now $500.

~~~
sakopov
It seems to have hit the ceiling at $500. The price has backed off a few times
throughout the day.

------
sonium
It is however less likely to be due to exchange manipulations this time
because the exchanges are more diversified.

~~~
pille
No, not really. If you can manipulate the price on one exchange, it will drag
the prices in the other exchanges along with it.

MtGox's high BTC rates were too close to arbitrage until it was clear you
wouldn't get your money out.

~~~
aianus
I was arbitraging MtGox vs US/Canadian exchanges up until 6 months before they
blew up. The spread was easily 3% even then. Thankfully they took 28 days to
wire me $10k and I saw the writing on the wall and stopped in time.

------
dear
"The blockchain is the new shining star, and it spills over to the bitcoin
world as well.”

------
murbard2
The convoluted way they tie this to DAH is somewhat hilarious.

------
spooningtamarin
how would one trade bitcoin fast enough to profit?

can one short bitcoin in a single day?

last time I tried it was insanely slow to buy bitcoin, and then sell it...

~~~
brianpetro_
Magnr give the best margins I've found, 10:1. You can short sell too.

My referral link
[https://www.magnr.com/?r=79019](https://www.magnr.com/?r=79019)

------
PhasmaFelis
It's amusing to me how, on this subject, Hacker News comments draw closer to
regular internet comments in terms of the ratio of detailed discussion to
biting one-liners.

I'm inclined to think that it demonstrates how very silly the whole thing is,
that even us eggheads get snarkily dismissive, but I'm sure some will
disagree...

~~~
AndrewGaspar
Referring to Hacker News posters as 'eggheads' in the large is a little too
gracious.

------
SpendBig
In the mean time, CasinoCoin gambles its way up as an alternative coin.

------
jcslzr
its because all those youtubers talking about a dollar collapse, because the
fed wont raise the interest rate (more like the fed can not raise rates)

------
cryptojuice
Time to dust off the ol mining rig, LTC to the moon!

~~~
bdcravens
Too bad difficulty increases mean your old rig will return a small % of what
it did before (if any at all)

------
wsxcde
A counterpoint to some of the pro-bitcoin hype.

The developers are still arguing about the 1MB blocksize limit. Currently
bitcoin is limited to a theoretical maximum of 7 transactions per second (~60k
transactions per day). This figure was derived assuming the smallest possible
transaction size but of course real transactions are larger and the practical
maximum is only about 2-3 transactions per second (~20k transactions per day).
This should have been a pretty easy limit to change, it's just a #define in
the code. But some core developers are against it and we're deadlocked and
have been this way for at least a year.

There is an alternative client called bitcoinxt, this supports larger
blocksizes but has literally no support among either the miners or chinese
exchanges which are driving the rally. (See
[https://medium.com/@octskyward/on-block-
sizes-e047bc9f830](https://medium.com/@octskyward/on-block-sizes-e047bc9f830)
for a summary.)

A number of DoS attacks on the bitcoin network: some based on spamming lots of
fee paying transactions, some based on retransmitting slightly modified
versions of existing transactions, have rendered it practically inoperable for
days on end. The fee paying attack isn't terribly expensive, costing only a
few tens of thousands of dollars per day, while the "malleability" attack
costs literally nothing other than an internet connection. There hasn't been
any significant progress on solutions for either of these problems.

The bitcoiner response to this is that you shouldn't have been affected by
either of these if you used the right client or paid the right fees, but
imperfect clients and fixed fees are a reality of the bitcoin ecosystem so I
don't see how wishing them away changes anything.

One of bitcoin's biggest advantages was supposed to be the ability to quickly
react to changing circumstances by modifying the protocol. Recent events have
shown this is pretty much impossible: too many people are too heavily invested
in its current form, and they want no risks and hence no change. Techniques
which supposedly allow risk free changes (called sidechains) still have a long
way to go before we can be convinced they work as intended. Besides they're
not even fully implemented on the bitcoin testnet, let alone real bitcoin.

Overall, even if people are buying into the "blockchain" tech, it doesn't seem
to me that they would be interested in bitcoin itself because of the problems
I've outlined. I think the safe money is still on this being a repeat of the
Willybot/Mt Gox fiasco where the exchange operator used nonexistent dollars to
buy bitcoin and drive the price higher. Other people were sucked in by the
uptrend and they ended up with nonexistent bitcoin/dollars which they weren't
able to withdraw from the exchange.

------
x5n1
here we go again.

------
a3voices
The Bitcoin dream of it being accepted by banks and replacing fiat currency
will never come true, especially since financial institutions are focusing on
blockchain technology as opposed to Bitcoin.

This recent price increase will possibly be viewed as a dead cat bounce.

~~~
mrb
What people like you who raise this argument forget is that the success of a
blockchain is intertwined with the success of whatever currency/reward is
granted to the miners who make the blockchain work. So if Bitcoin's blockchain
is adopted by banks, then Bitcoin the currency will succeed. And if banks
adopt another blockchain, then the currency of that blockchain will succeed.

It is literally impossible to have a functioning decentralized blockchain
without a proper reward/currency built on it to incentivize miners to mine on
it.

~~~
sanswork
Hey mate,

I feel like it has been ages since the two of us have talked bitcoin.
Hopefully you've made some cash in the recent run up. Funnily enough we're
both in NZ at the moment though I'm just here in Auckland for the week before
heading back to Sydney so no overlap. I'd love to revisit some of our topics
from last year though to see which ones each of us were right about. I have a
feeling though it's a pretty even split.

Enjoy your travels. My wife and I did our own at northandsouthnomads.com and
give me a shout on my email in my profile. I did always enjoy our debates.

~~~
mrb
Hey I did not know you were an Aussie. My travel blog is ~3 weeks out of date;
we are in Thailand at the moment :) I do not have much time to spend online
these days since traveling keeps us very busy, but you can shoot me an email
if you want to discuss anything.

~~~
sanswork
Canadian actually just live down here now. We did Chiang Mai for ~8 months
this year. Enjoy your travels.

------
Zarkonnen
Tulip bulbs! Got your tulip bulbs right here!

~~~
ojr
tulips that can be transfer digitally anywhere in the world at a low fee...

~~~
Dylan16807
If you wanted to sell a tulip ownership certificate this century it would also
be digitally anywhere in the world at a low fee...

~~~
ojr
Low just like Western Union and Moneygram got it ;)

------
mtgx
All aboard the speculation train!

------
gesman
More people are realizing that China and Greece are very close to default.

There are more holes in these economies than their respective governments has
fingers to plug them in.

Flight to bitcoin is the only natural and logical progression.

~~~
dragontamer
Where the hell is the flight to gold and bonds then?

Something else is going on. Gold is still at $1,120ish USD. There is no flight
to safety.

~~~
gesman
Two reasons.

1\. US markets are priming for a temporary rise till approx. end of spring /
mid-year 2016.

2\. Gold is no longer safe bet in the light of a large scale government
defaults and rather drastic domino effort that will follow.

For how long do you think Fed are going to kick the can down the road?

~~~
dragontamer
> 2\. Gold is no longer safe bet in the light of a large scale government
> defaults and rather drastic domino effort that will follow.

That makes no sense what so ever.

~~~
gesman
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102)

In case of drastic economic downturn this is a possibility along with currency
devaluation.

Back then there were no bitcoin in existence. Today it is.

~~~
dragontamer
If you're worried the evil gov'mt is gonna steal your gold, then why won't
they just steal your BTC too?

There's a reason why Swiss safety deposit boxes of gold exist. You gotta pull
that crap out of the country. Hell, if the US Government just declared
ownership of the BTC Network through subpeonas, they can effectively 51%
attack it and double-spend all the BTC they want anyway.

So no, your hyperbole does not convince me.

------
_Marak_
Price surge is in direct correlation with Winklevoss "Gemini" exchange going
online on October 8th. [https://gemini.com/](https://gemini.com/)

This chart shows the price surge starting the exact same day Gemini went
online:
[http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm...](http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv)

I really hope this is genuine growth, but I have a sneaking suspicion it could
be partially due to market manipulation by Gemini. The Winklevoss twins have a
lot of money riding on this play.

~~~
zilian
Your claim is really US-centric. Most of the exchange's volume right now is
from China. China is driving this and I don't see how an american-bank-only
exchange would be the main reason, if there is one.

~~~
_Marak_
I guess no one remembers MTGOX and the Willy bot.

I'll take my down-votes in stride.

Only the future will reveal the truth.

~~~
bdcravens
Of course they do. The volume required to do Willy-style manipulation is far
greater than what is occurring on Gemini.

