
Nokia Chief Elop Is Top Gambling Pick to Be Next Microsoft CEO - dkoch
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-08-28/microsoft-s-next-ceo-a-tough-bet-as-online-gamblers-favor-elop
======
kig
I can imagine the Elop-to-all-employees memo as MS CEO: Windows 8 is a
disaster. Windows 9 is not ready yet and won't be ready for years. We're on a
burning oil platform in the middle of the night. The only way to survive is to
jump into the icy cold waters of the Puget Sound.

We're announcing a platform shift to Symbian, which we'll be licensing from
Accenture Consulting at $15/pop. But they're our strategic partners so they're
going to give us marketing money to market the new Microsoft Symbian 800, so
it's almost like it's free.

In order to take advantage of the synergic benefits of outsourcing our core
business, I'm going to sell the Microsoft headquarters, fire all the obsoleted
software engineers along with 50000 employees who cost too much to employ in
our new revenue structure. We will also be EOLing Windows, Xbox, Windows Live,
Hotmail and Office and focus on rocking the world with Bing and the Microsoft
Symbian range of products, supported by the amazing Accenture Symbian App
Store.

Our exclusive partnership with Lenovo to sell Microsoft Symbian in countries
where we have traditionally done badly is going to form the cornerstone of our
new strategy. The new $1999 Lenovo Symbian smart tablets are industrial-
strength products designed to make a massive impact from Sichuan to Gansu.

------
sker
Problem is, if MS hires Elop, the new Nokia CEO may embrace Android, as well
as some of the other alternatives (Firefox, Ubuntu, etc.).

Microsoft needs Elop running Nokia as part of a bigger strategy.

~~~
harrytuttle
I doubt it.

Why would Nokia want to be another Android pusher with no competitive
advantage? Value-adds on Android are all shit (crappy launchers and bundled
shitware) and the platform is fragmented to fuck. Firefox OS isn't even off
the ground and Ubuntu is dead as well.

Nokia hit the spot with windows phone. People will realise that in time.

The platform is worth it just for Nokia Here+ for a lot of people (myself
included) and the fact that the hardware is decent.

~~~
Nursie
>>Nokia hit the spot with windows phone. People will realise that in time.

Ohwaityouwerebeingseriousletmelaughevenharder.jpg

That's some great comedy material you have there. How many years before this
happens do you think? They've already had several. Elop has been an MS stooge
since the word go and nokia has paid the price for it.

~~~
harrytuttle
Haters will be haters.

In 2016 I reckon the market will look like the following:

    
    
       25% - iOS     - Luxury/fashion sector.
       25% - WP      - business/teenage/student sector.
       40% - Android - Mainly generic landfill sector + Samsung
       10% - Everything else (probably still mostly S40)
    

Plenty of room for growth and a sensible return.

People used to take the piss out of me when I decided to invest in ARM
Holdings, Microsoft, Apple and Raytheon. Who's laughing now?

~~~
Nursie
I don't know why people would take the piss out of those fairly sensible
investments, MS has been solid for decades, Apples rise has been unstoppable
since the original iPod and ARM has been on the rise for decades too.

But your predictions for winphone are hopelessly optimistic, and MS has
already lost the business sector for phones. They had a strong position a few
years ago and threw it all away...

~~~
harrytuttle
They took the piss because I bought on a low when the companies were in deep
doo. Apple just started shifting Firewire Mac-only iPods and the buggy POS
that was OSX 10.1 which were laughed at initially, ARM was still suffering
from Intel's pull-out of the DEC purchased StrongARM product and Acorn fiasco
and Raytheon was pre-911 and had fucked up several major contracts. MS was in
a good position (as always) but they were riding low.

MS's business sector proposition had a _reasonable_ position in the market.
The market was fragmented to bits then as well. A lot of it was Symbian and
WinCE stuff with some fallout from proprietary platforms and the POS that was
J2ME.

They let that go with WP7 and to iOS a bit (c'mon it's a version 1 product)
but are clawing it back now with WP8.

Not one business person I know uses Android anymore though citing it's
unreliable. I see a rough distribution of 70/30 iOS/WP8 and that's falling
because dropping an iPhone is an expensive problem to sort for corporate IT
departments and individual users. You can afford to throw away a couple of WP8
devices a year for the same cash per user as a 4S and 4 WP8 handsets for the
price of a 5.

~~~
hippiefahrzeug
I've never seen a business person use a WP phone. Never. And I do get to talk
to quite a lot of them. It's iOS most of the time with very few Androids. WP
is simply not a factor. There are markets/territories where WP is doing quite
well, especially in low income countries because you get them quite cheap. But
when I say 'doing quite well', I mean: You actually get to see them in 1 out
of 10 phones.

------
freehunter
Ignoring the ignorant comments here about Elop "killing" Nokia, I would wonder
who would replace Elop in the middle of what could very well be a turnaround
for the company? Microsoft is still fairly strong, they certainly don't need a
savior in the way Nokia still does. Microsoft could certainly buy Nokia and
put Elop at the top of the whole thing, but that's not without its risks.

Would Microsoft sacrifice their only real friend in the mobile world just to
grab their executive back? If Elop comes over, either Nokia follows or
Microsoft disappears from the mobile market.

~~~
Zigurd
I could write a 50 page indictment of Elop for killing Nokia, but Tomi Ahonen
already has, so here is the tl;dr: There is no reason Nokia couldn't have had
Meego and Android alongside Windows Phone. Other OEMs, including Samsung and
LG launch products with alternative OSs because they don't want to be caught
out if OS preferences change. Several OEMs tried Windows Phone and/or Windows
RT. Those products failed to gain traction and were abandoned. These OEMs and
others will launch Tizen, Firefox OS, and Ubuntu products for the same
reasons.

Sticking with Windows Phone exclusively in light of its failure at other OEMs
looks more like career management than strategy. Launching a Windows RT
product, as Nokia is rumored to be doing, is recklessness bordering on
insanity.

As for Microsoft disappearing from mobile, it looks to me that Ballmer's
departure anticipates that happening. Nokia can't keep going the way it is for
much longer.

~~~
jeswin
I disagree with every comment you have made here.

 _There is no reason Nokia couldn 't have had Meego and Android alongside
Windows Phone._

Really? How will their marketing handle this? Imagine three entirely
incompatible operating systems. Add to that, they need to sell Symbian for a
few more years anyway.

 _Samsung and LG launch products with alternative OSs because they don 't want
to be caught out if OS preferences change._

OS preferences don't change just like that. You need apps in the app store. It
gets harder if you've already spent money on paid apps. Also, Samsung has
gotten nowhere with their alternative OSes.

 _Those products failed to gain traction and were abandoned._

Windows RT was lame and deserves to die. Windows Phone is by no yardstick dead
yet. It is actually doing a better job than many expected.

 _Several OEMs tried Windows Phone and /or Windows RT._

Exactly what Nokia wants. Nokia has become _the windows phone_. As of now,
Lumia accounts for 75% of windows phone sales.

 _Microsoft disappearing from mobile, it looks to me that_

Microsoft is not disappearing from mobile. Lumia sold 7.4 million phones this
quarter. Up from 5.5m and 4.4m earlier. How is this a failing company, or a
failing product?

~~~
dalai
_Really? How will their marketing handle this? Imagine three entirely
incompatible operating systems._

Exactly the same way Samsung, HTC are/were handling it.

 _Add to that, they need to sell Symbian for a few more years anyway._

Nokia essentially dropped Symbian two years ago.

 _Also, Samsung has gotten nowhere with their alternative OSes._

Funnily enough one of their alternative OSes that is getting them nowhere is
Windows and they decided to focus on Android instead.

 _Nokia has become _the windows phone_._

I don't see how that is helping them. They had huge brand recognition. It used
to be that 1 every 3 phones sold was made by them. Not saying that Elop was
the source of all their misery, but the Windows Phone strategy doesn't seem to
be helping them much.

 _As of now, Lumia accounts for 75% of windows phone sales._

The latter being around 3% of total smartphone sales, comparable to the
marketshare of Bada OS two years ago.

~~~
jeswin
_Exactly the same way Samsung, HTC are /were handling it._

Samsung, HTC, LG are selling Android. Their other phones aren't selling
really. If Nokia sold Android, they would be far behind in the Android market,
and won't sell too many Lumias either.

 _Nokia essentially dropped Symbian two years ago._

They sell low cost Asha phones here in India (and probably in SE Asia), which
I thought was an S40 derivative. (It seems so.)

 _The latter being around 3% of total smartphone sales, comparable to the
marketshare of Bada OS two years ago._

Breaking into smartphones is hard. Nokia knows than Windows Phone isn't going
to be shuttered. Windows Phone 8 was the first real Windows Phone OS. I
recently was at a Nokia showroom. The $140 off-contract Lumia 520 was smoother
than my Nexus 4. You should try it.

~~~
dalai
_Samsung, HTC, LG are selling Android. Their other phones aren 't selling
really. If Nokia sold Android, they would be far behind in the Android market,
and won't sell too many Lumias either._

My feeling is that they are not selling because they are not pushing them
much. I don't think Samsung ever made a serious, competitive Windows Phone.
Also Lumia is not selling the volume it's selling just because of the OS
(actually for some is a disadvantage because of the smaller marketplace). It
would be interesting to see how a Lumia with Android would fare.

Anyway, three years ago Samsung had 5% of the market and Nokia over 35%. They
had a good lead over everyone no matter what OS they decided to back.
Admittedly going with Android would have meant that they would have more
competition, but I believe that they had a good chance on brand recognition
alone. Perhaps it would have been worse, no way to tell now.

 _Nokia essentially dropped Symbian two years ago._

I think they have outsourced Symbian support. I am not sure anyone is
developing for it or updating it any more.

------
Piskvorrr
After sinking Nokia, Elop returns to Microsoft. Mission: accomplished.

~~~
Clepsydra
Nokia stocks has risen ~40% in the last year. You call that sinking?

Aug 29 2012: 2.75 Aug 29 2013: 3.97

Compare that to Apple.

~~~
hga
According to Yahoo Finance, it was 10.06 on the NYSE the day before he became
the CEO. Went up a bit to 11.06 a couple of times in the next two quarters,
but otherwise not good, and 3.94 in pre-market trading today.

~~~
bojan
That is not completely fair, though. At the time of his arrival Nokia was a
desperately sinking ship. The price would drop before rising no matter what
direction the company took at the time.

~~~
pessimizer
At the time of his arrival, Nokia was a stagnating dinosaur, with a tiny bit
of hope in an innovative operating system that was mismanaged, buggy, and
couldn't ship on time. Elop _accidentally_ announced that they were
discontinuing support on horrible Symbian, which was at the time the most
popular smartphone operating system in the world, and turned Nokia into a
desperately sinking ship.

Elop wasn't the worst CEO possible, but he was the worst CEO available.

------
graycat
In the mainstream media there is now the implication, hint, suggestion, claim,
etc. that somehow Google, Facebook, Apple, and Samsung beat Microsoft at its
own business. I don't buy that.

That hint, etc. plays well with consumers who see computing just in terms of
consumer client devices.

Here are two blunt facts:

First, many more client devices need servers, and Microsoft with Windows
Server, SQL Server, and many software tools for system installation,
monitoring, and management has demonstrated that it knows how to run one heck
of a big server farm with surprisingly small staff.

Second, people still need to work, at a computer 'work station' complete with
a good, physical keyboard, the old kind with keys that move, and one or more
screens, hopefully large, and maybe more than one. And they need to run some
major software applications in graphics, high end word processing, video
creation, editing, and production, engineering, statistics, etc., and for that
people still need a high end desktop computer with, from Microsoft, Windows 7
that can run both 32 bit and 64 bit software. That work station may have 32 GB
of main memory and 12 TB of disk memory. So, no smart phone or tablet can
compete.

Yes, Apple sold a lot of iPhones, and McDonald's sold a lot of hamburgers, but
that doesn't really mean that Microsoft should get in either the phone or
hamburger business or was beaten by either Apple or McDonald's.

For the new CEO of Microsoft to push Microsoft into mobile client devices in
competition with Apple and Samsung and software for such devices in
competition with Apple and Google and to ignore desktops and servers would be
huge mistake.

Yes, generally if there is a new business opportunity that involves software,
Microsoft should consider getting in, e.g., search and Bing. And maybe
Microsoft should push mobile client devices and associated operating system
and application software, etc., but to ignore desktops and servers would be
dumb, dumber than anything Ballmer did.

------
gjulianm
Apart from the fact that this is a non-story ("a gambling website picked Elop
as the favorite", which website? with how many users?), as others have said,
Microsoft needs Elop in Nokia to keep getting their support with Windows
Phone.

~~~
dlss
Looks like the website is ladbrokes...
[http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/Specials/Microsoft-
Specials/...](http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/Specials/Microsoft-
Specials/Next-Microsoft-CEO-N-1z0z7huZ1z0z1etZ1z0ys9q/)

Traffic looks like 20k/day visits or so
([https://siteanalytics.compete.com/ladbrokes.com/](https://siteanalytics.compete.com/ladbrokes.com/))

------
josephpmay
Now that Ballmer and Steven Sinofsky are out, I could see J Allard coming
back.

(Edit) Reasoning:

1) He's one of the few Microsoft executives (at the time) who saw the rise of
the internet in the 90's and the rise of mobile in the early 2000's

2) He spearheaded Xbox, Zune, and Courier, which appear to be the direction
Microsoft wants to head towards

3) He must still be somewhat connected with Microsoft, as he appeared in the
Xbox One video reveal

------
ausjke
Somehow, out of instinct, I feel this guy will ruin Microsoft, which is not
necessarily a bad thing. On a "burning platform" he is too interested/risky in
changing his behaviour instead of putting off the fire first then bettering
things for the long term, MS is blind to say the least.

------
andridk
Another burning-platform-memo incoming.

~~~
dman
Will be funny if he retires the win kernel and announces a port to freebsd.

------
seshagiric
With people like Larry Page, Jeff Bezos leading its competition, MS sure does
need someone very technical. May be Bill G makes a comeback.

~~~
dman
How about Sundar Pichai?

------
unono
Microsoft should pick Elon Musk or a famous googler, one of Sergey Brin, Larry
Page, Eric Schmidt. That would create a tech super-empire. Then one of these
should run for president.

------
seunosewa
Why isn't anyone suggesting Eric Schmidt? He has a lot of experience in
winning and kicking ass as a software company.

~~~
1337biz
Somewhat some time ago he must have decided to become the elder statesman of
the technology circus. Not sure if it was such a great decision, but I would
be very surprised if he came back into the business of "running" things.

------
infocollector
Top Qualifications list:

1\. Steve Ballmer : Best man in Gates Wedding. 2\. Elop : Killed Nokia single-
handedly! 3\. -- : Doesn't matter: There is no MS anymore?

------
gesman
MSFT needs young cute girl (well, someone in late 30-ish) as CEO to distract
the world from Marissa Meyer's domination :)

Old, bald and stubborn is no longer going to cut it.

~~~
1337biz
Not sure if she qualifies for cute, but the only other female high profile
tech personality that comes to mind would be Sheryl Sandberg.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
And who is running HP??? Meg Whitman isn't high profile?

~~~
1337biz
She is more of a grande dame than someone who signals an infusion of fresh
thinking. But then again this could be just what MS is looking for.

