
A robotic sewing machine could throw garment workers out of a job - svepuri
http://www.economist.com/news/technology-quarterly/21651925-robotic-sewing-machine-could-throw-garment-workers-low-cost-countries-out
======
ThomPete
Outsourcing really just is the last step before automation.

The major trend to look for is always cost of production where labour being
the number one cost.

In order for products to keep getting cheaper the cost has to come down. This
trend doesn't stop just because we outsource it to China or Brazil or India
and so even they become too expensive.

Unless economist start factoring in technology as one of the key economic
factors rather than treating it as they do now as an externality we will still
fight about whether too much government or too little government is going to
save us all. And the politicians wont do anything because they don't see it
projected in the forecasts their advisors give them.

In the meantime robots are going to slowly but surely put most of us out of a
job in almost all the industries we know of right now.

Or put another way – it's the technology stupid.

~~~
astazangasta
The problem as always is the basic premise of capitalism: who reaps the
benefits of productivity gains. It doesn't matter a fig if we automate away
all of the labor in the world if all (or nearly all) of the gains go to the
people who "own" the machines. Since 1970 this has been almost entirely the
case - none of the productivity gains made by American workers have gone to
the working class, they have gone to the rich,and mostly to the ultrarich.
Why, then, should we cheer for any productivity gains?

This problem is purely political, not at all technological, and we can only
solve it by clawing power away from capitalists. So, sure, robot sewing
machines. But let's make sure we all get to eat the benefits.

~~~
ThomPete
Capitalism will always be in play even if robots take most normal jobs. As
long as there are humans with needs and humans who can provide for that need.

So yes it is technology that is creating this winner takes all principle and
it would be in a socialist society too. It's apolitical if you'd like.

------
Sanddancer
This seems pretty much an obvious area for automation, seeing as how
repetitive sewing can get...and that automation in the clothing/textile
industry was the birthplace of one of the first disruptive technologies.
Thousands of people lost their jobs, thousands of people gained jobs as
clothing could now be made faster and easier than before. This just continues
a trend that's been going on for centuries.

~~~
dalke
As perhaps the most relevant predecessor, look at the effect the cotton mills
of Lancashire had on textile production in India.

------
zach
This is highly relevant for the recently-bankrupt American Apparel, which has
a fundamental proposition (even in its name) of producing clothing in the USA:

[http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-american-apparel-
manuf...](http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-american-apparel-
manufacturing-html-20151005-htmlstory.html)

Wages in their current location will be rising from $9/hour to $15/hour over
the next five years. It doesn't seem tenable in that situation to produce
goods at the same level of technology that overseas workers use. So this may
be the perfect opportunity to get serious about automation for clothing
manufacturing. Send in the sewbots.

~~~
marincounty
When I first learned American Apparel was made in the U.S. years ago, I really
tried to like their products. In my case I wanted to buy their underware, and
sports ware.

Every year I would feel that material, and think to myself, who buys their
product. Their choice of material was always cheap feeling, and didn't fell
good when put on.

I don't know why declared for bankruptcy, but quality of manufacture was the
reason I didn't buy. A few years ago, I was astounded they were still in
business.

I had no gripes to the quality of sewing; it was their fit, and grade of
material that didn't get my dollar. Yea, I know a lot of you loved their
hoodies. I have a bulky, polyester blend you can have in my closet. I might
have used it while working under my truck, because I didn't care if it was
ruined?

(In all honesty, the last time I looked at their clothing line was at least
ten years ago. They might have cleaned up their act, but it was too late for
me.)

~~~
tcdent
Higher labor cost has to be accounted for elsewhere. In their case, with a
high retail price and low quality materials.

I think material cost is also the main reason why they only use a few types of
fabric. Putting in the largest possible order will have the largest possible
discount.

------
douche
Seems like a natural consequence of rising standards of living in the
countries that this work was previously outsourced to. The garment industry
has always exploited low-cost workers - from children, to women, immigrants,
China, south-east Asia. When the cost of labor is no longer a significant
input to the equation (because there is little to no actual human labor
involved), I would expect to see production move back into the markets nearer
to customers, to cut the cost of transportation.

And transportation costs are going to go down, as the distribution networks
become more automated, so I suppose the next domino is going to be the cost of
energy.

------
neil1023
[http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/05/21/408234543/will-...](http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/05/21/408234543/will-
your-job-be-done-by-a-machine)

^Some researchers gathered some data and tried to determine the chances of a
job being automated by robots. It's a little scary but impressive how so many
jobs that exist today can just be done by robots.

~~~
cheepin
Interesting how they predict Programmers have a higher chance of automation
than the other areas of engineering since programmers are the ones automating
other things. I figure once programming is fully automated, pretty much
everything else is automatable.

~~~
gutnor
I guess they are actually talking about the actual translation of precise
requirements to code.

Most of the programmer in western countries handle a lot more than the coding
of things. If your job contains even a tiny bit of analysis, the probability
drop significantly. Computer system analyst has a 0.6% chance of being
automated according to this. Software Developer is 4.2%.

~~~
bendykstra
I'm having trouble imagining any sufficiently specific and unambiguous format
for writing requirements that does not look like programming. Even something
like SQL, which only needs to describe database queries, is still the domain
of the programmer.

~~~
techdragon
Diagrams, other visual and high level declarative programming are all readily
grasped by non programmers. The full impact of their "program's" behaviour may
not be. But since when has there never been a junior dev position who's work
couldn't be made better by knowing more. The very notion of junior dev implies
they have more to learn.

------
svepuri
While I appreciate the advances in technology to sew garments, I wonder how
this will negatively impact the economies, which are thriving because of the
garment business.

~~~
JeffreyKaine
As good an argument for universal basic income as I've ever seen.

~~~
s73v3r
Won't happen. These are mostly poor countries. What'll happen is these people
will be cast aside, and forgotten.

~~~
nkoren
Basic income works in poor countries too:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_India)

~~~
on_
India has 1.23 Billion[0] people in it, and that wikipedia article is quite
short, with only 4 sources. They don't cite any of the sources for the figure
which stated 6460 people are in the program.

The program serves %0.000005 of India, or in much more familiar terms, if
implemented at the same scale in America it would help _slightly less_ people
than there were killed by lions in Tanzania over the trailing 20 years[1].

[0][https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India)

[2][http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/wildlife/5149977/Top-1...](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/wildlife/5149977/Top-10-deadliest-
animals-on-the-planet.html)

[3]Off by one errors.

~~~
nkoren
It's a pilot program, not a nationwide initiative. That said, the economics of
it would be positive if applied nationwide.

If you're interested in the pilot, it's documented very extensively in this
book, which the Wikipedia article _ought_ to be referencing:
[http://www.amazon.co.uk/Income-Renana-Jhabvala-Soumya-
Standi...](http://www.amazon.co.uk/Income-Renana-Jhabvala-Soumya-
Standing/dp/1472583116/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1444224784&sr=8-1&keywords=basic+income+in+india)

~~~
on_
Sure, to be clear I would like basic income. My point was that it is really
easy to raise capital and test it on a scale like this. While I was making a
joke, the implications are real. Inflation can rise if people are all still
buying things at the same economic level and region. Where does the money come
from?

The problem with basic income is that when the conditions exist to make it
possible, it wont matter anymore. We need large transition to solar, automated
farming, automated transportation and distribution networks, etc. Then the
marginal cost of food, transportation, energy will be $0 so we can afford to
give it away.

Economics is not always the zero sum game it is made out to be. Microlending
could work, and getting these people access to conputers and internet will
too.

------
justanother
Why does this remind me of the invention (and widespread adoption) of the
Cotton Gin, which itself is partly blamed for the United States Civil War? The
parallels to the Industrial Revolution are everywhere you look these days.

------
1024core
Why do we need to sew, anyways? Why not invent some sort of a glue (or a
binding agent, to be more vague) to hold the pieces together? Something
that'll last a 1000 washes and never wear.

~~~
svepuri
Sustainability takes 3 aspects into consideration: Economical, Social, and
Environmental. Inventing a glue and making the garment last 1000 washes makes
sense environmentally, but think about the negative impact it has on the
economies. Potentially, it will increase the unemployment related problems in
many developing nations.

~~~
benjohnson
You would need to balance this sentiment with the fact that poor people wear
clothing and would appreciate the cost savings with longer lasting garments.

~~~
svepuri
Thats a good point.

------
jpatokal
Good. Working in a garment factory is not just mindnumbingly monotonous, but
backbreaking and dangerous.

[http://hesperian.org/wp-
content/uploads/pdf/en_work_2013/en_...](http://hesperian.org/wp-
content/uploads/pdf/en_work_2013/en_work_2013_garments06.pdf)

~~~
svepuri
Garment companies can make the working situations better by implementing
sustainable work practices.

Sustainable Apparel Coalition is an organization working on this approach. Not
working is not any better than working in a potentially dangerous place, which
could turn better in the near future.
[http://apparelcoalition.org/](http://apparelcoalition.org/)

------
tcdent
What if garment workers were able to buy their own robotic sewing machines?
Then we could have distributed labor and manufacturing and nobody would be out
of a job.

Services like Uber will likely work this way when automation hits; invest in a
car and put it to work.

In any case, I'll take one!

~~~
nosuchthing
Infrastructure... as a service!

[https://www.3dhubs.com/](https://www.3dhubs.com/)

Open Source manufacturing equipment:

[http://openknit.org/build/](http://openknit.org/build/)

[http://github.com/g3rard/OpenKnit](http://github.com/g3rard/OpenKnit)

[http://instructables.com/id/Building-the-Open-Knit-
machine](http://instructables.com/id/Building-the-Open-Knit-machine)

    
    
      OpenKnit is an open-source, low cost, digital fabrication 
      tool that affords the user the opportunity to create their 
      own bespoke clothing from digital files. Starting from 
      the raw material, the yarn, and straight to its end use, 
      a sweater for example, in about an hour. Designing and 
      producing clothes digitally and wearing them can now  
      happen in the very same place, rewarding the user with 
      the ability to make decisions regarding creativity and 
      responsibility.

~~~
tcdent
Thanks! I can't believe I hadn't seen this yet.

I actually have a knitting machine, which works similarly, but haven't used it
much. Short programs are way more appealing than counting pins by hand.

------
aaron695
A conspiracy theorist might say there's more to this than meets the eye.

DARPA caring about the cost of uniforms seems silly. $1000? per year per
person who costs a stack more than that to train and pay.

------
kujenga
Where are the luddites when you need them?

~~~
brlewis
_As the Industrial Revolution began, workers naturally worried about being
displaced by increasingly efficient machines. But the Luddites themselves
“were totally fine with machines,” says Kevin Binfield, editor of the 2004
collection Writings of the Luddites. They confined their attacks to
manufacturers who used machines in what they called “a fraudulent and
deceitful manner” to get around standard labor practices. “They just wanted
machines that made high-quality goods,” says Binfield, “and they wanted these
machines to be run by workers who had gone through an apprenticeship and got
paid decent wages. Those were their only concerns.”_

Read more: [http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/what-the-luddites-
real...](http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/what-the-luddites-really-
fought-against-264412/#cFqIw584x2Gt01tx.99)

