
Brexit has put the UK in an impossible position. This Venn diagram explains why - neverminder
http://www.vox.com/2016/7/5/12098156/brexit-eu-britain-venn-diagram
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Pamar
From what I understand (I am not a British citizen) the plan seems to be to
delay triggering Article 50 for as long as possible, and then get the actual
triggering to be voted in Parliament (expecting Parliament to vote against it
and therefore nullifying the Brexit). This will dilute the (understandable)
feeling of betraying for Referendum voters, especially if during the
intervening period media and UE will scare people in believing that an actual
Brexit would be a catastrophe.

~~~
internaut
> This will dilute the (understandable) feeling of betraying for Referendum
> voters, especially if during the intervening period media and UE will scare
> people in believing that an actual Brexit would be a catastrophe.

I am not confident the government won't plot its way out of Brexit but I am
confident that politics will take on a new character if they defy the outcome
of the vote. After all it was the largest vote by numbers in the history of
the state.

This was an historic victory, and a complete one, by a group that has rarely
had its opinion accepted as valid in the media or government. If you dismiss
their vote they have nothing left. This is an important point! There is
nowhere else to turn. There is no way to get their desired policy enacted
democratically or by playing the game. UKIP had one MP. One!

[http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/i-loathe-ukip-one-mp-3-9-million-
vo...](http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/i-loathe-ukip-one-mp-3-9-million-votes-
national-disgrace-1501080)

Media propaganda will not work. Neither the Trump support nor the Brexit Leave
voters give it any credibility. Surely you have noticed this. That is why the
prediction machines appear to be broken. That tool is no longer functional for
anything except stroking the neurosis of the middle class. If I were a
mischievous person I would wonder if that were always the case.

The Exit camp do not care what happens to the economy either, not in the short
term. They are not sitting down and biting their fingernails about share
prices or house prices. For them this is primarily about dignity, their pride
in their British identity and national sovereignty. Repudiating that as
xenophobia/fascism and then defying a democratic outcome is interesting. A
reasonable person would wonder if perhaps the people were bored and sought
wish fulfillment of some kind from the drama of history.

Thinking this will pass off peacefully is delusional. You cannot back so much
as a dog into a corner and hyperventilate if it bites you. The British police
are more likely to join the Exit rioters than stop them. They hold identical
views to the working class because they are the same people. The best they
will do for civil order is call a 'sickie'. That means this escalates
promptly. The riots of 2011 were only based on a few thousand people and it
seemed like half of London was on fire at the time, imagine the 2016 riots
with 10x to 100x that number, not looking for shops to loot, but heads to
crack.

Now I prepare for my daily allotment of downvotes for saying the obvious. You
can play with internet points, you can flag me or even ban me, but the fact
remains that defying this vote is a dangerous move. I lived in a British
housing estate for years, I think I know how they think. My prediction is
conservative, but if I told you everything I know I would be dismissed as
scaremongering.

The middle class left wing always protest, always are on the streets. For some
of them it is an occupation, for others it is more about free expression. They
have packed lunches and t-shirts for the occasion.

Do you ever remember a right wing protest? I mean outside of political rallies
of course, that is not protest. They are quite unusual as protests go, because
they are so rare. Have you noticed how sheepish and amateurish the PEGIDA
protesters seem? They are not used to this. So. If you do get to see a mass
protest of the right in your lifetime, be prepared, because this time it will
be serious.

~~~
Pamar
First of all: I was not saying that this is necessarily the best choice, or
that I endorse Remain or Leave.

I was just trying to explain what - from what I read so far - seems the most
probable strategy for the next months.

Also, while the economic results of the Leave might be exaggerated (as part of
the same strategy I was explaining) do you think that Leave supporters have
properly considered the risks of splintering UK (Scotland, Northern Ireland
and possibly Wales deciding to get independence)?

~~~
internaut
> First of all: I was not saying that this is necessarily the best choice, or
> that I endorse Remain or Leave.

Oh I understand, my post is mostly aimed at those who appear to believe
defying the vote result will be just shrugged off as if it were just another
case of politics.

The working classes are quite hard to politicize, but once they are involved
it is like a train speeding up on a track. The middle classes tend to have,
ah, more flexible opinions and less conviction about the world and their
beliefs shall we say. This isn't good or bad for either case, it's just so.

I think the chattering classes are underestimating the effects of a backlash
because they themselves are more flexible / less committed and their (wrong)
intuition that everybody else is the same. Sure there are lots of enthusiastic
and firm believers of <political paradigm> in the middle class, but they are a
minority. Most middle class people will eventually accommodate the idea of a
Britain without the EU. The working classes will not respond in the same way,
because once they commit to a political ideal it is much harder to shift them.
That's a grudge that's never going away, even if there somehow magically was
no rioting.

> I was just trying to explain what - from what I read so far - seems the most
> probable strategy for the next months.

That would be my hunch too. Looks like we're about to enter interesting times.

> Also, while the economic results of the Leave might be exaggerated (as part
> of the same strategy I was explaining) do you think that Leave supporters
> have properly considered the risks of splintering UK (Scotland, Northern
> Ireland and possibly Wales deciding to get independence)?

No. I don't even think the Remain side considered this proper or they would
have emphasized it much more in their propaganda instead of economics. However
Scotland wants to leave anyway, Brexit is more of an pretext for that than a
cause. I am confident Wales and Northern Ireland will stay with England.
Politically speaking the Scots and Home Counties don't have a lot in common,
the South is much more right wing than the North, so I don't think a 'deal'
ameliorates the situation if it succeeds in Scotland staying and Britain stays
in the EU.

I suspect, and I'm not very sure of this, this is just a guess, that the EU
officials are going to deny Scotland entry to the EU even if they become an
independent state which will piss them off no end (this is to prevent a
precedent setting off country fragmentation in Europe e.g. Catalonia). I think
the closing of ranks against Juncker has something to do with this. Then an
olive branch will be offered to the British. Obviously there's quite a gap
between the cup and lip here so we'll have to wait and see.

