

An Optimistic History of the Next 40 Years - typpo
http://io9.com/5873485/an-optimistic-history-of-the-next-40-years

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nkoren
A fun but thoroughly unrealistic read. A while ago, I tried my hand at
predicting the future of space, mainly from the perspective of its population
level (which currently stands at 6). The trick is that while new technologies
may come and go, the actual expansion of humanity into space is going to be
driven by a stepped series of economic concerns (not explicated in the
scenario below, although I suppose it would be fun to do so) which will always
go at a fairly deliberate pace. Space technology is not like internet
technology: even the most radical breakthroughs can't be promulgated
overnight, but require extensive periods of finance and R&D before they become
a significant force. Anyhow, predicting the future is a fool's game, but I
suspect that it might go something like this:

 _2010s_ : The ISS continues to operate with a crew of six. In the middle of
the decade, it is joined by a small Chinese station, raising the average
population of space to 8. By the end of the decade, a small Indian space
station has been built, and one or two small private space stations are in
orbit, and the average population of space has risen to 17. Throughout this
time, suborbital tourism becomes increasingly commonplace. Although this has a
very significant effect upon the total number of people who have _been_ to
space, it has little impact on the average population of space. Meanwhile, the
world population passes 7 billion people.

 _2020s_ : National and commercial space stations continue to be launched and
expanded. By the end of the decade, the average population of space has risen
to 40. A handful of these are workers in governmental lunar outposts.
Meanwhile, the world population passes 8 billion people.

 _2030s_ : Continuing incremental expansion of national and commercial space
habitats. This decade sees the first tentative missions beyond cislunar space.
By the end of the decade, the average population of space has reached 80
people. A few of these are wealthy retirees who now consider themselves to be
permanent residents, although they are still completely dependent upon Earth
for material resources.

 _2040s_ : Continuing habitat growth in cislunar space, including growing
numbers of "settlers". Further expeditions to asteroids and Mars, although no
permanent habitats yet. By the end of the decade, the population of space has
passed 150 people. Meanwhile, the population of earth passes 9 billion people.

 _2054_ : The world population peaks at just over 9.2 billion. The same year,
the first baby is born in space. The total population of space reaches 215
people, about 1/3rd of whom are permanent residents. This means that
0.00000078% of the total human population lives in space.

 _2061_ : 100 years after Yuri Gagarin's spaceflight, 340 people are living
and working in space at any one moment, including 120 permanent residents, 8
of whom were born there. The first continuously-crewed habitats have now been
built on Mars, home to a few dozen people.

 _2077_ : The population of space passes 1,000 people, including 500 permanent
residents. Meanwhile,the rapidly-aging population of Earth has fallen to 8.5
billion.

 _2100_ : The population of space passes 3,500 people, including more than
2,000 permanent residents. About 20% of the residents are native-born.
Meanwhile,the population of Earth has fallen to 7.6 billion.

 _2119_ : The population of space passes 10,000 people. Almost 90% live in
cislunar colonies, but over 1,000 now reside in habitats on Mars. Owing to
advances in micro-manufacturing, these settlements could be nominally self-
sufficient, but are in fact are largely dependent upon Earth.

 _2161_ : 200 years after Gagarin, almost 100,000 people live in space. Over
15,000 live beyond the cislunar system, in settlements which are increasingly
driven by internal economic activity rather than trade with Earth. Emigration
from Earth has increased substantially, with over 4,000 people making the one-
way journey every year.

 _2189_ : Net emigration from Earth peaks at almost 20,000 people per year.
The population of Earth has now fallen below 4.9 billion, and easing
environmental / economic pressures are making it a more attractive place to
live. Some reverse immigration from space is now also occurring, although in
very small numbers.

 _2213_ : The population of space passes 1 million people, approximately 23%
of whom are native-born. 75% of space residents are part of the cislunar
socio-economic sphere, but a number of fully self-sufficient societies are now
established on Mars and certain asteroids. Meanwhile, the population of Earth
has fallen to 4.3 billion.

 _2230_ : For the first time, native births in space surpass net migration
from Earth.

 _2247_ : The population of space passes 2 million people.

 _2310_ : The population of space passes 4.5 million people. Native-born
spacers now out-number immigrant Terrans.

 _2382_ : The population of space passes 10 million people. Settlements have
been established in the Jovian system, engaged in mining the He3 fuel which
now powers the solar system's economy.

 _2461_ : 500 years after Gagarin, more than 22 million people call space
home. Many of these have never seen Earth's orb with their own eyes.
Meanwhile, the population of Earth has reached a steady-state condition at
just under 2 billion people.

 _2612_ : The population of space passes 100 million people. More than half of
these live beyond the cisulunar sphere. Much of the socioeconomic activity in
space is now entirely independent of Earth. Immigration from space to Earth is
becoming more tightly regulated, to ensure net zero population growth.

 _2846_ : The populaton of space passes 1 billion people. The inner solar
system still comprises the vast majority of the non-terran population, however
hundreds of new worlds have been established in the Kuiper Belt, with
populations ranging from a few thousand to a million apiece. These artificial
worlds are made from the vast hollowed-out interiors of nanotech-fortified,
spun-up Kuiper Belt Objects, with artificial suns floating at their centres.

 _2911_ : There are now more people living in space than on Earth.

 _2961_ : 1,000 years after Gagarin, 62% of the human population lives off-
Earth. Some of the self-sufficient trans-Neptunian worlds have decided to
become generation ships, and are accelerating at a low but continuous thrust
through the Oört cloud on their way to other solar systems.

 _3047_ : The total population of humans and human-derived species once again
reaches its 21st-century peak of 9.2 billion. This time, more than 70% of that
population lives in space.

 _3313_ : The population of space reaches approximately 100 billion people.
More than half live beyond the orbit of Neptune. A few hundred million live on
worlds which have passed the halfway points and are now decelerating towards
other suns. Less than 2% of the population lives on earth.

    
    
      "Our remote descendants, safely arrayed on many worlds through
      the solar system and beyond, will be unified by their common 
      heritage, by their regard for their home planet, and by the 
      knowledge that whatever other life there may be, the only 
      humans in all the universe come from Earth.
    
      "They will gaze up, and strain to find the blue dot in their 
      skies. They will marvel at how vulnerable the repository of 
      raw potential once was. How perilous, our infancy. How humble, 
      our beginnings. How many rivers we had to cross before we 
      found our way."
    
      -- Carl Sagan

~~~
itmag
Way cool! I would buy your sci fi novel if you wrote one :)

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raldi
Anyone want to write up one of these for the 99% of amazing upcoming
developments that _don't_ involve space travel?

~~~
zerostar07
Indeed, the space-hysteria is a remnant of the 60s i guess and we should be
over it by now. There's nothing special about our reachable outer space - just
dumb rocks and no possibility of life. Realistically speaking, an optimistic
version should include a smaller population of humans, the old megacities
replaced with sustainable habitat, people living extraordinarily long lives
(200+ earth years), the end of all disease, artificially intelligent agents,
the ability to "upload" knowledge to our brains, humans with enhanced
cognitive abilities, new life forms etc.

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Flow
The recent discovery of planets that seem to be "earth-like" is very exciting.
Imagine what the next Kepler and next Hubble would be able to find out about
our neighborhood?

Imagine if we could tell a planet light-years away was heavily industrialized?

Or if something like "sub-space signals", that is sci-fi today, was
discovered, and suddenly we hear so much chatter we would feel like a kid lost
in a big shopping centre. A very humbling thought.

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gcanyon
Any future history that doesn't mention nanotechnology loses credibility with
me.

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ljf
Alternative title: 'an optimistic history of the next 40 years of space
travel'

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aloneinkyoto
It always troubles me when people talk about the future and futurism
optimistically and without understanding the historical context and why it
might be a bad idea.

For you that don't know, futurism had its roots in 20th century Italy and was
a broad art and cultural movement that ultimately gave rise to fascism. It
also inspired both Lenin and Hitler and merged with the ideals of
industrialism to create communism (Leninism) and national socialism.

The difference is, back in those days futurism was considered avantgarde.
Today it seems to be modus operandi.

And on a side note: Why would any sane person want to live in space? Going
there to do some important science for a while, sure. But living in a tin-can
in an insanely hostile environment for the rest of my life? Not gonna happen.

~~~
waqf
Why would any sane person want to live in Nevada? I hear it's mostly desert.

~~~
aloneinkyoto
A more apt comparison would be Antarctica. But even in Antarctica you can go
outside and feel the sunshine on your face in the summer. You can't really do
that on a space station or on a Mars base.

I would personally probably miss the smells and the seasons the most.

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suprgeek
Predicting anything related to science discoveries past a 15 year threshold is
almost impossible. There are so many frontiers on which science advances that
predicting which one will hit the crucial break-thru that will alter human
life as we know it is an art.

Consider - Nano tech might make such a breakthru to make machines unimaginable
today common place, Or medicine may make living to 150 trivial or Genetic
manipulation may make extreme modifications easy, Or chemistry might make
exotic metamaterials possible, Hardware/Software may make a True Human scale
AI feasible or some kind of Man-machine hybrid trvial. Any ONE of these could
alter the shape of Humanity in the next 20 years.

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olaf
AI-Blahblah, some people haven't realized, that AI has not delivered yet, and
it is unclear, if it ever will.

I wouldn't bet on AI to happen.

I suppose, that we humans will have to solve our problems ourselves.

No childish waiting on some big other (Aliens, AI-robots, ...) recommended.

Act responsible.

~~~
TomAnthony
You are quite right, AI hasn't been delivered yet. However, I _would_ bet on
AI happening; the argument just is about the form it'll take:

Imagine in the future we could perfectly reconstruct a human brain using nano
technology. From this point we will have already acquired a lot of data about
the different areas of the brain and the effect they have on the various
facets of intelligence. So now we can begin to optimize the construction of
these synthetic brains to maximise whichever facets we select, and provided we
can interface them with some inputs and outputs we already have AI.

Personally, I don't think this is the form it'll take, but it is a fallback
that sidesteps the requirement for us to reconstruct the 'thinking' part
ourselves and seems something that will be plausible in the future.

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paulovsk
> Near the end of the decade, the first Earth-like planet – with spectral
> evidence indicative of life (O2-CO2 cycle) – is discovered 30 light-years
> away. We name this planet, "Destiny."

It seems to me a self fulfilling prophecy.

That said, it's really optimistic, but a good reading.

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DanielBMarkham
I hate to be grumpy old guy, but hell, there were articles in science
magazines that predicted the same 40-year future -- only 40 years ago. Why do
you think all those old sci-fi films put things happening in the early 2000s?
Anybody remember 2001? Because that's when inter-system space flight would
really be taking off.

There's a rule that anything impossible is always 20 years out. Perhaps a
corollary: anything that's truly fanciful should be predicted for 40 years
from now -- far enough away for audiences to have no idea of the practicality
but close enough that most of them will enjoy reading it because they like
believing such things might occur in their lifetime.

~~~
tomjen3
The space travel thing didn't turn out as they guess, but on the other hand we
now have regular cheap plane travel -- an ordinary guy can hop on a plane from
Europe to New York without breaking the bank.

Not to mention the fact that you can even read what I am writing -- thousands
of miles away, after it has been beamed through space and traveled under the
Atlantic. Aside from This Perfect Day I don't know any science fiction which
deals with an extensive communication network like that. And even in that book
it was strictly used to control and lord over the citizens.

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breckinloggins
I like how, whenever I read one of these, the Earth invariably becomes a huge
toxic waste zone in 30 - 50 years. I won't be at all surprised if the Earth in
50 years looks and feels pretty much the same as it does now (a tad warmer,
though).

~~~
paulovsk
Yep.

I don't think 50 years will fuck the Earth up. Maybe 100~150, if there's no
nuclear war.

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kunle
very optimistic. That said, fun read.

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norswap
Highly unoriginal and full of common tropes. I bet the next big thing will be
something that (almost) nobody saw coming.

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eddy_chan
Sounds like the utopian plot of Star Trek had Zefram Cochrane not been able to
invent the warp drive

