
GM’s CEO Offers to Make Ventilators in WWII-Style Mobilization - avonmach
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/kudlow-says-gm-ceo-offered-to-make-ventilators-for-outbreak
======
hodgesrm
This is how to respond to big challenges. There are going to be a lot of
comments about how we messed up, wasted time, etc., but they miss the point.

The WWII mobilization was a shitshow when it started. Kaiser Shipyards in
Richmond, California turned out ships at an amazing rate [1] but it didn't
begin that way. I remember hearing a story many years ago of what it was like
when they first started. People were wandering around trying to figure out
what to do, because nobody could read a blueprint. In the end some kid who had
had a couple of years of college just sat down with older guys and they
figured it out. (This was on NPR, sorry don't have the source.)

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richmond_Shipyards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richmond_Shipyards)

------
SiVal
It already does a lot of inflexible manufacturing, often by outsourcing
overseas, but I'd love to see part of the US military converted to a _rapid-
response, highly flexible, fully-domestic_ manufacturing system. LOTS of very
flexible automation, so they could take a wide range of designs and raw
materials and rapidly switch from making one thing to making another and the
ability to hugely ramp up production on demand without having to retrain
people or recertify facilities. The people involved would be trained to set up
for a different product every couple of weeks or so.

The system could be kept almost constantly humming, making one thing,
switching and certifying, making another, switching and certifying, keeping
them pre-trained, tested, and certified. The military itself has an ongoing
need to rapidly adapt to new situations, but things are needed domestically
for planned infrastructure, sudden large-scale destruction from
earthquake/fire/flood/tornado disasters, sudden economic changes (ex: some
sort of trade cutoff), strategic domestication (ex: immediately end reliance
on some import), round-robin top-off of local emergency prep supplies,
individual citizen preparedness supplies, etc.

~~~
gnopgnip
This is literally what the military is now. Under the berry amendment a lot of
what the military buys needs to be 100% domestic. A significant fraction of
military spending is to ensure that the logistics are in place in case of a
greater need in the future, not just to fulfill current needs and training, or
any specific mission.

~~~
joezydeco
This is a great 99PI podcast about the US Army Natick center, which develops
military rations.

[https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/war-and-
pizza/](https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/war-and-pizza/)

Part of the mission is to develop the technology and then commercialize it.
Now you have a number of factories that are capable of switching into ration
production if the need arises.

Things like powdered cheese, condiment packets, and retort packaging came out
of this research.

~~~
chrisjc
Off-topic, but my podcast list has been so enriched through reading HN
comment. Thanks for the link.

------
mgerdts
Manufacture of medical devices has specific regulation around Good
Manufacturing Processes [1] (GMP, one of many GxPs). This requires a Quality
Management System [2] (QMS) and very specific training for everyone involved.
Pretty much any manufacturer that is not already manufacturing in accordance
with 21 CFR Part 820 [3] and related regulations will have a ton of work to
establish a suitable QMS.

I'd like to think that at least some auto workers already have some taste of
working under the eye of regulators and auditors and as such their adjustment
to GMP has the potential to be smooth. The days of leaving empty beverage
containers in the hollow of a door are long past, right?

Management that is not experienced in FDA regulations will try to ignore or
short-cut them. In the best of cases, this turns into fines and manufacturing
delays. In the worst of cases, it turns into deaths due to defective product
or manufacturing delays. Every level of management needs to be experienced in
GxP.

The most reasonable path to getting a QMS in place and having compliant
manufacturing would seem to be to have the manufacturing capacity be leant to
an established manufacturer that has a solid QMS, the expertise to adapt it to
the new reality, and a solid relationship with the FDA. That is, the auto
manufacturer's management would need to be out of the picture or 100%
subservient to the experienced medical device manufacturer.

Once that is worked out, I suspect that manufacture of the devices is
comparatively easy. Put another way, it's probably easier to switch from
sedans to tanks than it is to switch from SUVs to almost any medical gizmo.

1\.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_manufacturing_practice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_manufacturing_practice)
2\.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality_management_system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality_management_system)
3\.
[https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cdrh/cfdocs/cfcfr/CFR...](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cdrh/cfdocs/cfcfr/CFRSearch.cfm?CFRPart=820)

~~~
jjeaff
I think you are a bit confused about the position the country is in right now.

Regulations and regulators can and will be damned in an emergency.

Of course, all reasonable precautions should be taken when producing medical
equipment. But if someone needs a ventilator, they are going to die without
it. It doesn't matter that there is a small chance that complications arise or
some flaw in the ventilator causes it not to work correctly. They would have
died without the ventilator in nearly 100% of cases.

Like many regulations right now, they will be temporarily suspended within
reason.

~~~
xyzzyz
It seems that in time of actual crisis, we're all libertarians.

~~~
shigawire
Only those who can afford medical care will receive it?

~~~
chmod775
Only if you subscribe to the weird capitalist modern bastard child of
libertarianism, which should really be called something else, given that
actual libertarians would probably hate it with a passion.

------
lsc
Yeah, I'm personally not too concerned with the "stuff" end of things. This is
America; in spite of rhetoric to the contrary, we remain a manufacturing
powerhouse. Apply enough money and we'll get whatever "stuff" we need on
pretty short order.

I think the big problem is medical technicians and doctors. My feeling is that
we should be focusing on training up medical people on a massive scale, as
that's something that the USA is notoriously bad at. Perhaps the military
could provide medical technicians the fastest? lots of healthy young people
who are trained in the use of serious PPE? (I wonder how the procedures differ
between nuclear, chemical and biological threats like these?)

People talk about beds... but the problem isn't physical beds. _I_ could make
you a physical bed. the problem is doctor and medical technician labor to make
the bed useful.

~~~
malandrew
It’s not that we’re bad at training medical personnel. It’s that the AMA acts
as a cartel to limit the number of physicians train to keep income high. We
just need to allow more people into medical schools and make more residencies
available.

~~~
lsc
Yeah, remove the limiter, and how long does it take to make a doctor? I mean,
sure, some people are saying that this thing is still gonna be here in four
years (I am not a medical person, but that's what some of them say. something
about the type of virus this is that will make a vaccine difficult) so that
might not be a bad idea, but... I think we probably need to be focusing on how
we can increase medical capacity four weeks from now more than four years from
now.

~~~
jdc
Hell, we'll make it so med students can get a proper night's sleep during
their residencies while we're at it.

~~~
lsc
the disrespect for sleep the medical profession has is insane.

If someone is gonna be cutting on me, I want them to have a good night's rest.
They tell _me_ to sleep consistently and well quite often. seems like if it's
good for me it would be good for them, too.

~~~
8note
it's a hazing ritual

if too many make it to be doctors, the pay won't be as good.

~~~
vsareto
We should cut about $50-100B out of the military budget and make it for
training medical personnel _without_ raising tuition because it doesn't matter
if there's no population to defend or recruit from.

------
syntaxing
This is definitely great and uplifting news but I am not sure why GM or Ford
is the one on top of list for this endeavor? There are a bunch of second
source assembly houses that build medical equipment for the big players. Seems
like it would make more sense for them to build it with some sort of FDA fast
pass.

Discretion, I work for a carmaker company but my opinion is of my own only.

~~~
JumpCrisscross
> _why GM or Ford is the one on top of list for this endeavor?_

Ford and GM were massive manufacturers when WWII reared its head. That gives
them a rich history of wartime production [1].

The principal cost in these sorts of shifts can be bureaucratic. Having
cultural capital to call on is invaluable.

[1]
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry_in_the_U...](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry_in_the_United_States#Great_Depression_and_World_War_II)

~~~
MegaButts
> Having cultural capital to call on is invaluable.

How similar is the culture today compared to 75+ years ago?

~~~
JumpCrisscross
> _How similar is the culture today compared to 75+ years ago?_

Doesn’t matter. “We did this before and must do it again” is a powerful call
to action. That cultural capital spins up the bureaucratic flywheel.

~~~
thwarted
I first heard the song "We Did It Before and We Can Do It Again" on some old
Looney Tunes.

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veYIbxaU0A8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veYIbxaU0A8)

------
mgsouth
Quote from a recent Scott Manley episode seems appropriate:

    
    
        We choose to do these things not because they are easy, but because we asked ourselves "how hard could it be?"[0]
    

I'm pondering how long would it take GM to modify their ERP systems to handle
an entirely new business line. Never mind that... how long would it take them
to define the requirements for the plan to determine the framework for the
project to explore the changes needed to the organization? Turning on a dime
is not something a large corporation is good at, no matter how well-meaning.
It takes time for people to learn how to do unfamiliar things, it takes time
to organize large groups of people, it takes time to even decide what the
requirements are.

Many HN readers work in software development. We constantly deal with
stakeholders who have completely unrealistic timeframe expectations. Do we
really think GM could, in effect, create an entirely new division in a couple
of sprints? How long do you think simply creating new injection molds would
take? Does GM even know how to handle the kinds of plastics used in
ventilators?

Edit: Think war-room. The worst thing a manager can do during an emergency is
try to create new processes or add people to make things go faster. My job is
to let the folks who already know what to do _do it_. Sweep all obstacles out
of the way. Order pizza, arrange for day-care, rent the hotel across the
street. The only really quick ways to increase availability of medical
equipment is to give existing manufacturers whatever help they need to run
24x7, and to help their suppliers run 24x7.

At this point, anyone who is "offering to help" is going to be of little use.
If you have the infrastructure in place, you had better be doing everything
you can to be ramped up. If you need resources you should be screaming for
them--no one else is going to be able to tell you what you need or what to do.
If you don't have the infrastructure, knowledge, or contacts, then you're just
going to get in the way.

[0]
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=graC_Vib1IE](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=graC_Vib1IE)
@8:40

~~~
fma
FWIW automanufacturers in China did this. So this isn't anything, or out of
the realm of possibility (we do have more red tape in the US, i.e. see what
happened w/ the Seattle Flu Study when people tried to be helpful).

I don't have any English source for this. But Boris Johnson requested the same
in England, too.

~~~
dougweltman
UK asks automakers to join efforts to scale up ventilator production:
[https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-
britain...](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain/make-
us-ventilators-to-fight-coronavirus-uk-asks-ford-and-rolls-royce-
idUKKBN21316V)

~~~
fma
Yeah - I mean I didn't have an English source for the same initiative that in
China.

------
JonathanFly
Wouldn't it make more sense to make masks and other PPE first?

You don't need a ventilator if you don't get sick in the first place, masks
are much faster to put into immediate production, and impacting the curve
earlier is going to have a much bigger effect than later.

I mean make everything. But I have family members working in hospitals right
now and they are asking me to search the internet and find masks for them. Not
ideal.

~~~
xvector
Can’t say I agree. Surprisingly few people wear masks even when they are
available - my local hardware stores have had plenty in stock and yet they
barely get used. Finally, the benefit of masks is questionable since most
people are now performing social distancing.

Ventilators are needed for serious cases and cannot be produced as quickly as
masks. While masks may or may not help, more ventilators will definitely help.

~~~
diarmuidc
Because masks don't help prevent you getting it
[https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-
coronavirus-2...](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-
coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks)

~~~
javagram
Your link says “ If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are
taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection.” - in other words,
it does help prevent someone from getting it.

The reason health organizations outside of Asia are not recommending mask
wearing by the general public is there are not enough to go around, so they
are trying to stop the public from hoarding them when the masks are vital
equipment needed by medical providers.

Wearing the masks also helps prevent infected persons (some of whom are
asymptomatic with this coronavirus) from spreading it, if previous research on
flu viruses is considered applicable.
[https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/features/face-masks-
flu/](https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/features/face-masks-flu/)

“These results suggest an important role for aerosols in transmission of
influenza virus and that surgical facemasks worn by infected persons are
potentially an effective means of limiting the spread of influenza.”

------
thomk
As a 5th generation Detroiter; this offer makes me very, very proud.

~~~
hodgesrm
I grew up in Ann Arbor. Can we open up Willow Run again? :)

------
lysp
> Australia's military is on standby to dispatch more engineers and health
> professionals to deal with the outbreak of coronavirus as the nation's
> response to the global pandemic ramps up.

> The Australian Defence Force has already deployed specialist staff to work
> with the federal Department of Health as part of its response to the spread
> of COVID-19.

> ADF engineers have also been sent to the regional Victorian town of
> Shepparton to help manufacture face masks to combat a global shortfall.

...

> Discussions are also taking place for engineers and other specialist staff
> within the ADF to help establish pop-up fever clinics.

> The ADF has appointed three-star general John Frewen to head a new taskforce
> to lead the military's response to the pandemic.

------
JohnJamesRambo
This made me feel a twinge of patriotism. Something I haven’t felt in a long
time.

~~~
spectramax
We are Americans, we have gone through a lot in this country. In dire times,
when humans get together to solve problems - I get goosebumps and tears in my
eyes. In our normal day to day life, consuming media and seeing how fragmented
this nation has become - incidents like this bring us all together to fight a
common enemy. We should have the onus and the courage to help everyone in the
world, not just the US. Our image is blemished but the fabric of our
principles is still strong. I've never felt patriotism in my whole life in
America - but times like this, fuck its amazing.

~~~
ironmagma
It's times like this that make us so great. We've been riding on success for
so long, it's been easy to forget how we have a goal in the world and that our
existence is not guaranteed.

~~~
fermienrico
Definitely, most city dwellers I know do not feel proud of being an American,
but they only choose to do so to avoid nationalism and patriotism from
clouding their judgement - not because of the lack of the American spirit.

The American spirit is always there. They will always seek truth, keep a tab
on the government and fearlessly criticize authority, value freedom of speech,
liberty and freedom of press. This isn't unique to US, but to Canada, EU, UK,
Switzerland, India, Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand and many other
democracies around the world.

------
bluenose69
A line at the top says "Musk tweets Tesla will make ventilators if there’s a
shortage". Well, the "if" part does not really seem to be a question.

With US cases at 10^4 today, and a doubling time of 2.5 days (note 1), and
with the estimates of available stockpile, it seems well past time to get
started on this. I doubt that making a ventilator is as simple as knitting a
scarf.

Another way to contribute would be to figure out a way to make masks quickly.

There's lots to do, and help from the innovative and diligent will be greatly
appreciated by those who remain.

1\. Doubling time inferred from a regression in log space of the last 2 weeks
of data provided at
[https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_...](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series).

~~~
blauditore
Viral spread is more complicated than a simple exponential curve. This is even
visible when just eyeballing graphs in log space, e.g. here:
[https://mackuba.eu/corona/#total](https://mackuba.eu/corona/#total)

~~~
_Microft
The world-wide total numbers are a _very unfortunate_ choice of graph. It
overlays the earlier development in China and their static number of cases (no
new ones) with exponential growth in the rest of the world (= the beginning of
a logistic curve looks like an exponential).

Better look at each of the different countries.

China and South Korea as examples when the problem is managed ; Italy, Germany
and Spain as examples when country did not yet.

[https://mackuba.eu/corona/#china](https://mackuba.eu/corona/#china)

[https://mackuba.eu/corona/#south_korea](https://mackuba.eu/corona/#south_korea)

[https://mackuba.eu/corona/#italy](https://mackuba.eu/corona/#italy)

[https://mackuba.eu/corona/#germany](https://mackuba.eu/corona/#germany)

[https://mackuba.eu/corona/#spain](https://mackuba.eu/corona/#spain)

------
melling
While we do need some equipment, instead of treating the symptoms, we could
lock ourselves down and avoid the surge.

We saw China stop the problem a month ago. South Korea seems to have stopped
the problem with testing.

Buy ourselves a month so we can ramp up testing.

The US just past South Korea and France yesterday in covid-19 cases.

We have 9400 cases and 150 deaths.

By the way, China is reporting no new domestic cases.

[https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

~~~
themaninthedark
China destroyed data and tried to cover up when the outbreak first started,
now they are kicking journalist out of the country.

I would not believe anything they are saying at this point in time.

~~~
fragmede
That's an over reductive view, and throws out the baby with the bathwater.
China is not a monolithic entity, and while the CCP has, and exerts a lot of
control, it is not omnipotent. The number of cases as reported by China will
always be suspect, but we are already seeing some information from China being
borne out elsewhere. In particular, Italy has been showing similar numbers as
China - Covid-19 is particularly lethal to those over 80, less so in children.
There are other bits of information we can learn from them, even if we never
believe the number of cases is accurate.

As far as the emergency hospital situation and the number of cases in China,
I'm sure the US government has been keeping track of the situation via spy
satellite. The CCP would never have let the fact that one of the hospitals
collapsed escape the country otherwise.

------
non-entity
This is something I've been hoping to see since the pandemic started.

But, I'm pretty ignorant regarding this industry and I've also wondered this:

There are numerous manufacturing plants within the US, but how easy is it
switch from manufacturing knew product to another? Is the equipment and
machine used generally the same?

~~~
kanzenryu2
I'm working on the setup of a new factory line. It's amazingly complex and
makes just one thing... a washing machine bowl. Here's a video of an older
version of the line.
[https://vimeo.com/306316617](https://vimeo.com/306316617)

------
BurningFrog
Meanwhile, _actual_ ventilator manufacturers are not getting many orders:

[https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/18/ventilator-...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/18/ventilator-
shortage-hospital-icu-coronavirus/)

~~~
ajross
Right, because no one has stepped up to write a check. Hospitals are
businesses, they're not going to do this on their own. GM is a business,
they're not donating those ventilators, they're trying to make a sale into a
new market. States, most of them, can't do it because their budgets are fixed
by their constitutions and they can't take a loan or write a bond without a
referendum.

There's basically one entity in this country with the ability to actually make
this happen, and the people trying to point out that _it isn 't doing anything
useful_ are fighting downvotes here just to be dark enough to read.

~~~
jacquesm
Whoever thought that running your healthcare system in a commercial fashion
was the right idea in the first place? A lot of fundamental decisions are
going to be re-thought in the aftermath of this virus' impact, but for now we
can ignore all that and focus on what matters: eradicating the thing. And if
GM making ventilators on a war footing is what it takes I'm all for it, let's
divert some of those funds to them and _give_ the hospitals what they need.

~~~
barry-cotter
The US has more intensive care unit beds per capita than any other country.
Among developed nations they will not come out of this with the highest COVID
death toll per capita. The Italian healthcare system is closer to the not for
profit ideal and it’s not doing great right now.

~~~
CraigJPerry
I’m not sure where you’re getting that from. There is no universally accepted
definition of “intensive care unit bed“ due to fundamentally different
approaches to healthcare in different countries.

What you can easily compare are hospital beds for acute care - this is a much
bigger pool than just icu.

You can also easily compare number of doctors per capita.

In both of these measures the US system lags behind places like Italy.

~~~
lima-lima
I agree with the parent. There are a number of places in these comments where
the number of ICU beds per capita seem to be justification for personal
viewpoint; all cite the same sources.

In the interest of avoiding possible hubris, I think it's worth noting that
the numbers in the Statisica chart on ICU beds/100k persons (included in the
oft cited link [1]) counts in its data for the USA all ICU beds, while the
European numbers come from a study that explicitly exclude [2]:

"...private healthcare providers, neonatal and paediatric intensive care beds,
coronary care, stroke and pure renal units"

The 34.7/100k number for the US does _not_ exclude the above. According to [1]
the US has:

"There are 68,558 adult beds (medical-surgical 46,795, cardiac 14,445, and
other ICU 7318), 5137 pediatric ICU beds, and 22,901 neonatal ICU beds."

Attempting to match the criteria of both studies gives the USA about 46,795
beds. Assuming 320 MM people gives 14.5, not 34.7, per 100k. I haven't looked
at the sources for other countries, but we can expect differences in
methodologies of ICU bed counting.

I think this casual sort of comparison of national capabilities (like [3])
which lacks rigor is more dangerous than useful. I hope one will take a deeper
dive if they're evaluating risks based on the numbers that have been posted.

[1] [https://sccm.org/Blog/March-2020/United-States-Resource-
Avai...](https://sccm.org/Blog/March-2020/United-States-Resource-Availability-
for-COVID-19) [2]
[https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00134-012-2627-...](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00134-012-2627-8)
[3]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds)

------
int_19h
The mobilization of American industry during WW2 produced some interesting
artifacts. For example, many people might know what an M1 Carbine is, if only
from movies and video games - but how many know that they were manufactured
by, among other companies, IBM, Rock-Ola, and National Postal Meter Co?

After the war, most of those ended up on the civilian market, so even today,
you can own a gun that has a legit "IBM" logo on the barrel.

------
dajn9
I'm a simple minded engineer. In my work I use ventilators frequently and I
often have to service them so I'm not entirely unknowlegeable about these
devices.

There is a large need for mechanical respiratoration (a ventilator) then I
have a thought.... Has anyone considered one HUGE pump working as a
ventilator? The average hospital has a capacity between 300 and 1000, why not
have one huge shared resource as a pump. The pump should have the capacity of
sourcing sufficient O2/Air to hundreds or thousands of patients. There are
obvious supply chain and technical challenges (thinking of how you create all
that O2, the valving, filtering etc).

Example: 6 liters of air/breath * 500 patient bed hosptial so a pump volume of
3000 liters * 12 breaths or 36000 liters/min capacity, pumps of this magnitude
should already exist. This effective giant set of bellows could then could
source into a large diameter tube which runs throughout an entire hospital or
nursing home. Each patient would have individual takeoffs with valve
controland similarly a return exhale system (one giant collector, sterilizing-
filter, etc).

~~~
ryanmercer
Back flow causing cross contamination, different rate and flow, etc

------
growt
> Elon Musk said the company would make ventilators if there is a shortage

Well he should better start, because there will be a shortage.

------
cutenewt
I hope companies step up and create surgical masks. It's such a basic item,
but we don't have enough. Forget about guns, it's like asking troops to fight
without shoes.

~~~
adventured
The federal government has placed an order for 500 million N95 masks.

[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/trump-
say...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/trump-says-u-s-
ordered-500-million-n95-masks-to-combat-virus)

~~~
bagacrap
What does that even mean? Placing an order doesn't magically solve production
shortages.

~~~
Slippery_John
It protects the manufacturer against ramping up supply only for demand to
suddenly disappear.

~~~
yourapostasy
A one-time order isn't what that company is looking for. They're only
responding to hospitals that sign onto a five-year contract, for example.
Likely the only way to get to the front of the line with him now is to have an
authorized 10-year contract signed by the board of directors with a capped
total, with an attached note, "fill in your price, up to this amount", handed
over face-to-face by the customer's CEO stepping into the factory.

Even that isn't really sufficient. Looking at the capex depreciation table
[1], he'll only depreciate the new machinery in five years, and likely still
be paying a note on it. Commercial industrial/flex space leases in the DFW
area where he's near are typically around 3-5 years. After all is said and
done, he's likely roughly breaking even, and not netting a giant personal
profit at the other end.

He needs the Federal and state governments committing to evergreen disaster
preparedness on a decades-long timescale. That takes much more than
stockpiling.

[1]
[https://cs.thomsonreuters.com/ua/fixa/cs_us_en/ass_life_tbl/...](https://cs.thomsonreuters.com/ua/fixa/cs_us_en/ass_life_tbl/hid_help_asset_lives.htm)

------
duckfruit
This is inspiring. Echoes of
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arsenal_of_Democracy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arsenal_of_Democracy)

------
1propionyl
To everyone saying "great, but why didn't this start months ago?"

Well, sure, but the second best time to start is now.

~~~
anthony_r
Because Elon thought that the coronavirus panic is dumb.

[https://elonmusk.today/](https://elonmusk.today/)

[https://www.thestar.com.my/tech/tech-
news/2020/03/11/tesla-c...](https://www.thestar.com.my/tech/tech-
news/2020/03/11/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-thinks-the-coronavirus-panic-is-dumb-a-
million-twitter-users-liked-his-tweet)

~~~
chrononaut
The content quoted in the "The Star" makes it seems more to me that he's
calling the _panic_ dumb, not the necessities required to fight the pandemic,
which he acknowledges exists in his follow-on tweets, at least the ones "The
Star" quoted.

I also think the "coronavirus panic" is dumb, but I'm defining the "panic"
when I say this as people buying 5 years of toilet paper, and unless there's
more context that's what I am also assuming he is referring to.

~~~
endorphone
Elon Musk's words-

“My frank opinion remains that the harm from the coronavirus panic far exceeds
that of the virus itself. If there is a massive redirection of medical
resources out of proportion to the danger, it will result in less available
care to those with critical medical needs, which does not serve the greater
good.”

“My best guess, for what it’s worth, based on the latest Center for Disease
Control data, is that confirmed COVID-19 (this specific form of the common
cold) cases will not exceed 0.1% of the US population. Moreover, I do not
think when we look back on 2020, that the causes of death or serious injury
will have changed much from 2017.”

No, he wasn't talking about toilet paper hoarders. He was yet another overly
self-absorbed person who thought that because he knows about something, ergo
he knows about everything. HN is full of those types. That the "panic"
response of actual professionals who are experts in this field just didn't
match his imagination of how to respond to this "form of the common cold".

As an aside - the MAGA brigade is out in heavy force lately. The type of
comments that are being flagged is absolutely _ludicrous_. If you find a
comment that's politically unpalatable, be sure to flag it.

~~~
zozbot234
> My best guess ... is that confirmed COVID-19 ... cases will not exceed 0.1%
> of the US population

My own best guess agrees with that. Really, it's all about how many cases you
choose to "confirm". That's not very reassuring though.

~~~
bildung
That would be 330k. With the current growth rate of 25% per day we'll find out
in 16 days.

------
giarc
Why don't they offer assistance to the companies already manufacturing them?
Can they send supply chain specialists? Even things like sending material
handling staff to relieve their regular staff will help.

------
empath75
I’m not actually sure the bottleneck will be our stock of ventilators, nor do
I think it will be very difficult to build enough within the next month or two
— at least not to the point where we’d need a wartime mobilization

They don’t run themselves, however. They require specialists, many of whom
that will themselves catch the virus and have to quarantine. It’s not just
doctors but anesthesiologists, nurses, technicians, etc.

Not to mention just having physical room in the hospitals.

~~~
malandrew
The issue as you highlighted is correct. We lack intensivists. In terms of
ventilators and critical care beds, the US is actual well ahead of most other
countries.

[https://sccm.org/Blog/March-2020/United-States-Resource-
Avai...](https://sccm.org/Blog/March-2020/United-States-Resource-Availability-
for-COVID-19)

The reason people think we have fewer beds per capita is because they are
counting regular hospital beds and don't include beds available in outpatient
facilities.

What I was unable to find out is how many intensivists per capita are
available per country. If anyone can find that data, I'd be curious to see it.

------
tibbydudeza
But it took one very capable, talented and gifted person (“Cast Iron Charlie”)
to make Ford become the largest manufacturer of B24 bombers during WW2.

Read on Willow Run Assembly plant and how it came about.

[https://www.assemblymag.com/articles/94614-how-fords-
willow-...](https://www.assemblymag.com/articles/94614-how-fords-willow-run-
assembly-plant-helped-win-world-war-ii)

------
lurquer
There are probably more ventilators in the US than the total number of
hospitalized covid patients in China at the peak. This is getting crazy. Has
anyone happened to notice that this disease is not ravaging the rest of China,
malayasis, Vietnam, Japan, or the US for that matter? It's been FOUR months --
at least -- and there are fewer dead worldwide than the deaths in Florida
during a nasty flu season.

~~~
joshu
China instituted massive lockdowns. People are suspect of Japan’s numbers.

You need to compare rate of growth, not the current number. Otherwise you are
arguing that a Camry at 60mph is faster than a parked jet.

------
oliwarner
Can they also manufacturer anesthesiologists and acute care nurses? Medical
beds? Hospitals? Effective PPE so what few staff we have can carry on working?
What about safe, medical grade oxygen?

It's not enough to have ventilators and beds for 15% of your population. You
need a joined up response across the board. This is good, but it's not enough.

~~~
dcolkitt
> Can they also manufacturer anesthesiologists and acute care nurses?

There's a lot of smart and talented people currently sitting home, doing
nothing right now. It may not be medical school but four weeks on Khan Academy
can get you up to speed on routine tasks. Then you work under the supervision
of a real medical practitioner handles corner cases. This is how medics are
trained in wartime.

> Medical beds? Hospitals?

Tons of hotels are sitting empty. Their beds could easily be retrofitted into
field hospitals.

> Effective PPE

Apparel companies. H&M and other fast fashion outlets can boot a new design
pattern in as little as six days.

> What about safe, medical grade oxygen?

Tons of Scuba shops have gas compressor capacity, which is obviously safe for
human consumption. Most of those shops are sitting empty, because of the
current collapse in tourism.

~~~
oliwarner
Even if those were viable solutions —I have reservations— we're still just
talking about this. Medical staff are being exposed today due to lack of PPE.
Cases are still rocketing.

If we want to avoid the situation where we can only make our parents and
grandparents comfortable in death, leadership needs to emerge and commandeer
the resources available to our countries. Waiting for volunteers isn't enough.

------
huffmsa
As they should.

The United States can manufacturer its way out of this problem, it just needs
to mobilize.

Uber is a hyper local, infinitely scalable logistics network.

All of those startups making modular homes out of shipping containers could
and should be making temporary hospital wings (which would conveniently fit on
an 18 wheeler for easy transportation).

------
SlowRobotAhead
I have an M&M Mars Co 1911 that was made by the candy company as a effort to
show they could help with WWII efforts.

So definitely not an unheard of scenario to move excess capacity to out of
industry items.

But I think my 1911 is more collectible than a Tesla Ventilator. Still,
someone might pay decent money for that some day.

------
jariel
I still can't believe that most large companies were not offering everything
they could several weeks ago.

All Army/Navy/Air Force medical personnel should already be deployed to the
field with makeshift drive-in testing spots. The Army is good at creating
controlled zones. They can direct traffic while someone takes a swab.

All other military personnel should be working with hospitals to do 'anything
non-medically related'. Taking names, providing transportation, direction
people, providing backup generators.

All labs capable of doing testing should be preparing/getting processes ready.

3D printers printing whatever they can for equipment support.

Anyone laid off should be hired immediately by the government to provide free
grocery and medicine delivery to those quarantined. This would serve as an
economic stimulus.

All trained medical staff in the country should be triaging based on the 'new
normal': family doctors are no longer family doctors, they only treat regular
patients if needed, otherwise, it's 4 days a week dealing with Corona.

A tidal wave is about to hit the nation, it's 'all hands on deck'.

~~~
rstupek
The military is legally prohibited from operating on US soil (kind of
something the framers didn't feel comfortable with). Perhaps you mean the
National Guard, which is controlled by the governor of each state?

~~~
jariel
I mean deploy them without weapons, or possibly uniforms if necessary. If
that's still illegal, they put many of them on 'leave without pay' if they
were with a different federal agency wherein they operate without rank or
difference to their military status i.e. 'bodies for work'. They can be
filtered into roles given qualifications.

Uniforms are not necessary and they would have no real legal authority, the
legality could be enforced by local law enforcement if necessary.

Don't need guns, uniforms or much training or authority to divert traffic,
take peoples names, guide them in parking lots while they wait for test
results.

------
onetimemanytime
>> _Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said the company would make ventilators
if there is a shortage_

well, there is. Either get off Twitter or shoot a tweet to your underlings to
get going. Pretty much countries will buy any ventilator that someone makes,
money is no object.

~~~
_-___________-_
Actually, right now there is not a shortage of ventilators. Few hospitals have
ordered more, and there are large stocks. There probably will be a shortage
soon, but unless someone orders them and guarantees payment it's hard to
imagine any manufacturer re-tooling their factory and spinning up production
on a wing and a prayer.

~~~
onetimemanytime
do you really think they will be unsold? No one is willing to export those few
that are manufactured so getting guaranteed payment is not an issue, I'm sure.
USA, UK, Germany, France, Italy and everyone has opened their wallets...
[https://www.wired.com/story/ventilator-makers-race-to-
preven...](https://www.wired.com/story/ventilator-makers-race-to-prevent-a-
possible-shortage/)

------
DavidSJ
Ford too:
[https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/124041736308791705...](https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1240417363087917056)

------
danans
I hope that, like the world war II manufacturing effort, this puts a lot of
out of work people back to work.

I'm already hearing about service industry people getting laid off all around.

------
neonate
[https://archive.md/rx8j8](https://archive.md/rx8j8)

------
iso947
Offers schmoffers. Tell me when the first ones come off the production line.

That goes for musk too.

------
akeck
Where's Toyota? Rapid adaptation is their bread and butter.

------
biolurker1
While tesla decides to illegally keep plant working...

------
josiahtullis
Contrast this w/ Elon Musk's response...

------
asdfman123
If we were halfway rational, we would have started this in January. Failing
that, start now.

~~~
caymanjim
This is pure hindsight. This didn't warrant that kind of response in January,
not by a longshot. In January it looked exactly like the other comparatively
minor respiratory viruses that pop up every few years. We can't shut down
industry and retool factories just in case.

~~~
cm2012
Tell that to South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan who mobilized _immediately_
(South Korea had their first case on the same day we did, Jan 8)

Also, for H1N1 (which ended up being much less deadly) Obama had a million
tests made in the first 2 weeks from the first US case. We're now 2 months
from the first US case with less than 20k tests done.

~~~
danenania
Amazing. It shows us that the power law is at work in government
effectiveness.

A capable executive branch can get _orders of magnitude_ more accomplished in
a given timeframe than an inept one.

It’s likely that thousands will die who didn’t have to because many American
voters forgot the importance of a baseline level of administrative competence.
Hopefully this will remind them.

~~~
cheese4242
I'm not convinced things would have played out much differently under any
other administration to be honest.

Note that many other western countries are struggling as well.

~~~
danenania
It seems indisputable that if we had manufactured a million tests in the first
two weeks after cases started showing up, we’d be a _lot_ better off right
now. And realistically, “a lot” is probably a massive understatement.

Rare as they are in politics, we have a case where two presidential
administrations faced almost directly analogous challenges. The results would
appear to speak for themselves.

~~~
cheese4242
"directly analogous challenges"? I don't buy it.

This is unprecedented.

~~~
danenania
The need to rapidly scale up testing for a dangerous new pathogen clearly is
not unprecedented, considering it happened during the previous administration.
It seems pretty analogous to me, apart from the stakes turning out to be much
higher this time around :-/

------
alex_young
This is what Musk should be doing.

~~~
lightgreen
Elon Musk does not owe people anything. If he decides to produce them, that's
fine, but he doesn't have to.

But the governments should buy these ventilators from private companies, so
private companies like Tesla or GM were incentivized to produce these
ventilators.

Edit: added and then removed a comment about downvotes

~~~
ocdtrekkie
The point is not whether or not Musk owes it to anyone. But that some people
claim to be making the world a better place, and others batten down and
actually do make the world a better place. And usually the latter is a lot
less glamorous than the former.

~~~
vvanders
Yeah, I'm as big of a Tesla fan as you'll find but the lack of closing the
factory in one of the epicenters has really lowered my opinion of his
leadership.

While I understand he's one to zig when everyone zags I feel like this will be
a case where it will become clear that it was a bad call.

~~~
lightgreen
I guess people at the factory do few close contacts which can lead to virus
transmission. And I guess they are supplied with hand sanitizers and
handwashing is mandatory.

On the other hand, people get paid, the factory is saved from bankruptcy so
people can continue working in the factory even after the end of the outbreak.

I'm not sure that closing the factory is a universally good decision for
society.

Edit: English

~~~
vvanders
Considering that the virus can live for up to 9 days on metal, glass or
plastic[1] I'm not sure that mandatory hand washing is going to do much in an
assembly line where everyone interacts directly vehicles on the line.

[1]
[https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-670...](https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701\(20\)30046-3/fulltext)

~~~
Rapzid
I think the absolute risk must be low for surface transmission. Otherwise we'd
just be getting our coronavirus from the grocery store and deliveries?

~~~
vvanders
From what I've seen it survives 2-3x less on cardboard[1] compared to
plastic/metal. Probably a vector, but less likely than hard surfaces.

That said the best way to not transmit it is to shut down non-essential
services and focus on flattening the curve.

[1] [https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200317-covid-19-how-
lon...](https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200317-covid-19-how-long-does-
the-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces)

------
throwaway5752
I don't want to disappoint anyone, but they are stating "we stand ready to do
this" but the tacit follow up is _" when we are asked to"_.

The president has stated he is not ready to ask them

 _" He's casting doubt over whether he will actually implement a move to
invoke the Defense Production Act -- that he signed on Wednesday and that
gives him authority to order industry to work towards homeland defense and
national goals. In this case, it could speed the production of badly needed
ventilators, masks and other supplies for hospital workers"_ \-
[https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/politics/donald-trump-
leaders...](https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/politics/donald-trump-leadership-
coronavirus/index.html)

FEMA and the Army Corp of Engineers have said the same thing. For some reason
they are not being mobilized while CA, WA, NY/CT/NJ are dealing with a crisis
and have asked for that help, formally and officially. Meanwhile, ICE is fully
deployed and arresting people in hospitals, then concentrating them together
without adequate separation.

GM and Tesla (and Ford, and all other domestic manufacturers that have done
so) should be saluted for volunteering to help. But there is a slow-walking of
the response and something very, very rotten is going on in some areas at a
coordination level in the US.

~~~
ruffrey
Can you point us to some current sources about ICE arresting people at
hospitals?

~~~
kemayo
There was a viral photo a few days ago. There a _lot_ of context around it:
[https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/03/the-right-
and-w...](https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/03/the-right-and-wrong-
lessons-to-take-from-that-viral-photo-of-an-ice-arrest-at-a-hospital/)

It basically boils down to "ICE has a policy of not arresting anyone at
hospitals; this was a special case where someone they were in the middle of
arresting had to be taken to a hospital, and they continued as soon as he was
discharged".

------
DelaneyM
Don't offer.

Do it.

Start making ventilators by the thousand. Screw patents, screw official
sanction - when things get dire, the world will take every one we can get.

~~~
penagwin
Yeah I'm not sure that's a good idea. I can only imagine it would cost
millions to retool for ventilators - especially if you start just cranking it
inventory.

Before you do that you want to make darn sure that they're actually needed or
you're just burning money.

------
thereare5lights
> There are going to be a lot of comments about how we messed up, wasted time,
> etc., but they miss the point.

That, ironically, misses the point of the existing comments about how we
wasted time.

By wasting time, lots of people are going to die that didn't need to die. None
of that has to do with mobilization itself or the issues that we run into
_during_ mobilization, it has to do with _when_ we decided to mobilize.

~~~
hodgesrm
At the risk of being argumentative I would point out that many Americans died
unnecessarily at the beginning of WWII as well. This is a common pattern in
wars.

~~~
untog
I think you can take this analogy too far. If I were to do so, I'd say that
the OP is suggesting that Pearl Harbor was attacked, the President said it was
no big deal, just one Japanese plane, and the country collectively twiddled
their thumbs while the enemy advanced.

~~~
bilbo0s
True.

Not sure why everything is always compared to a war in any case? We have a war
on this, a war on that. You can compare anything to a war, but that doesn't
mean you're going to get useful insights out of the exercise.

I mean, yeah, I suppose it's Pearl Harbor is attacked and we twiddled our
thumbs, but what insights useful right now in dealing with this virus does
that comparison uncover? It's kind of just noise at this point. Save it for
the post-mortem and the history books. It's not terribly useful right now. And
it's certainly not useful to tell Americans at this point that it's necessary
and common that many of them will need to die unnecessarily because, "that's
always the way".

~~~
untog
> It's kind of just noise at this point. Save it for the post-mortem and the
> history books. It's not terribly useful right now.

If we were serving in the White House right now I'd agree with you. But we're
just people shooting the shit online, I don't really see what harm it does to
discuss the things that are on our minds. Nothing we’re talking about here is
really all that _useful_ in terms of tackling the issue in front of us all.

------
nickik
That's a total fantasy when you consider rare earths. And they know it. The
military can produce basically nothing without resources for China.

~~~
phaemon
Nope, rare earth elements are common pretty much everywhere. The only reason
companies buy them from China is because they're cheaper due to their lower
wages and lack of environmental protection.

When China limited export of rare earths, leading to a dispute with Western
countries, all that happened was suddenly Western mining firms became viable
and attracted investment. China then dropped the export limits and dropped the
price to force those companies out of business.

~~~
semi-extrinsic
Same thing the Chinese did with solar panels back in the early 2000s.
Subsidise national production so it could run at a loss, forcing others out of
business and cornering the market.

In some sense it's pretty obvious that a free market capitalist system will
mostly lose in competition with a state regulated system, if the latter
decides it is important to have control of a sector.

~~~
mrfusion
On the other hand China is giving us free money/stuff when they sell it below
cost.

~~~
tashoecraft
Yes, so on the short term that’s a benefit. But when it means the us/world
doesn’t invest in a crucial piece of our infrastructure that would take many
years to establish then it’s a net loss.

------
endorphone
This is reported in the same way that the Google website debacle was --
someone offhandedly mentioned something, and this administration runs out to
scream it from the mountaintops as an accomplishment. Look, they're doing
stuff.

~~~
gkoberger
Hey, at this point, I'll take it.

------
alexandercrohde
Maybe a proposal is to loosen FDA requirements during emergencies, and allow
these ventilators to be sold on the free market after minimal testing (and
sold with the understanding that they are as-is).

Seeing how inefficient and slow our health-care system is, I think the free-
market approach may actually be better here.

~~~
matchbok
Ah yes, let's let a potential deadly thing go on the "market" and just hope it
works. Because every first responder is going to take time to read reviews and
ensure they thing they are wearing is actually going to work.

~~~
alexandercrohde
Meh, it's a hundred times better to let something be made in the next weeks
out there that has 90% effectiveness than to disallow anything from being made
because the testing process is too slow.

Maybe you're a bit oblivious to the problem, but the US has 160,000
ventilators and 372 million people. Even if only 1% need a ventilator we're
over 3 million short.

Do the math buddy, before you get snarky.

