
Determining the Average Apple Device Lifespan - ingve
http://www.asymco.com/2018/03/01/determining-the-average-apple-device-lifespan/
======
oflannabhra
1) 2/3 of devices Apple has ever sold remain in use today [0]

2) The average lifespan of an Apple device is 4.25 _years_

That should put to rest the "Apple's planned obsolescence" narrative, but I
doubt it will. I think it has always been the case that Apple cares about
building really good hardware that lasts. That's not to say that they don't
make mistakes (they do), but they care most about making something good,
regardless of the "business case."

On the most recent earnings call, several investors had questions about how
Apple's new battery replacement program would affect business. For example,
would the cost bring down profits, would the replacement prevent upgrades,
etc. Tim's response was:

>On the battery, Toni, we did not consider it in any way, shape, or form what
it would do to upgrade rates. We did it because we thought it was the right
thing to do for our customers. And sitting here today, I don’t know what
effect it will have. And again, it was not in our thought process of deciding
to do what we’ve done. [1]

[0] - [http://www.asymco.com/2018/02/27/the-
number/](http://www.asymco.com/2018/02/27/the-number/) (this does not include
iPods, I don't think) [1] - [https://sixcolors.com/post/2018/02/this-is-tim-
transcript-of...](https://sixcolors.com/post/2018/02/this-is-tim-transcript-
of-apples-q1-2018-earnings-call/)

~~~
Analemma_
I will never understand why Apple gets all the "planned obsolescence!" flak,
when I still know people using iPhone 4S's and 2011 iPads and iOS devices get
software updates for 3-5 years. You're _lucky_ if your Android phone gets two
years of updates, and I don't there has ever been one with three.

~~~
220V_USKettle
I would love to be able to still use my 4S, but cannot install apps or upgrade
iOS.

Awesome hardware though. Built like a tank.

~~~
akoster
My mom is still happily using her original iPad mini with iOS 9. Some apps
these days are not compatible with it but asurprising number are still
targeting iOS 9. Lots of popular apps such as Telegram, Netflix, Overdrive
books support iOS 9 and still get updates (unsure for how much longer). Others
like the Target app, require later iOS versions and force her to use an older
version, which tend to still be functional, though without the latest
features.

~~~
scarface74
Even if they don't get updates. The older versions should still work. I
downloaded the older version of Netflix "the last compatible version" for my
first gen iPad running iOS 5 and it still works.

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SpikeDad
My Apple //e is still running. My Newton 2100 is still running. My iPhone 5s
is still running on original batter (on iOS 11 to boot). My MBP 2011 is still
running (albeit with new SSD).

Sadly my Macintosh Portable isn't running but that's only because the
batteries are dead and I haven't refurbished them yet.

No other hardware I've ever purchased has run for that long. My Palm Pilot is
dead. My Treo is dead.

No one who says Apple builds in planned obsolescence has probably never used
any Apple hardware.

~~~
wnissen
Apple is great at getting you to buy new hardware. This is, as you have found,
quite different from actual obsolescence.

~~~
FireBeyond
Right. My 2013 MBP had a "charging circuit" issue. The laptop worked fine, the
battery was fine, it ran on AC. It just could not allow a charge to the
battery.

Me: No problem. I'm sure it's no more than maybe $200, parts and labor.

Apple Store: So because we have to replace x, y and z to do this, you're
looking at $820.

Two thirds of the original purchase price of the laptop to repair the ability
to _charge its battery_.

~~~
Decade
My 2013 MBP had a charging circuit issue, too. I brought it to Apple, and they
said replace most of the internals, $800. I took it to a third-party
authorized Genius Bar (Create More on 3rd St), and they replaced just the
charging circuit for about $200.

~~~
FireBeyond
My frustration was with that, and then they were very eager to say "Hey, it's
going to cost you this, how about we start looking at a new Mac?", a very used
car sales vibe.

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linopolus
An average lifespan of about for years is just huge, even if this probably is
pushed a lot by Macs having a longer lifespan than phones.. On the other hand,
my mother still uses the iPhone 4S I handed down to get than I got my 6.

~~~
overcast
My Mac Pro tower from 2008 is still going as my main desktop, not a single fan
or hardware issue. iPhone 6S after a new battery, feels like a brand new
device. I've had every iPhone since the first one, and decided to just stop
buying new phones every year or two. I'll run this into the ground until it
stops working. Beyond email , text messaging, and instagram for business. It
doesn't serve much other purpose that requires the latest and greatest.

~~~
rconti
I bought a new iMac 2 years ago to replace my 2006 Mac Pro; unfortunately even
with 9GB of RAM it's simply too slow to edit the monster 20MP images coming
off pocket cameras these days. It was a great machine for me, though. The old
Mac Pros are stuck back on Snow Leopard or something; it hasn't been eligible
for a software update in quite a few release cycles, although I think the
SLIGHTLY newer Mac Pros are still supported.

~~~
overcast
It's pretty trivial to get older Mac Pro's on the latest OS release, and it
works fine. I've been running High Sierra since the day it was release without
issue on my 2008. 32GB of RAM, and still the old 2600XT video card. No problem
editing 45.7 megapixel raw files from my D850 for a side marketing business.
With that said, it has its slowdown with just too much shit running, 3+ VM's,
IDE's, whatever else I'm developing. Definitely is a powerhouse for ten years
later though.

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mtgx
So 4 years is the _average_ lifespan, not the maximum. That's pretty crazy,
and even more than I thought it would be (4-5 years max).

And to think that virtually all the other OEMs barely even support their
phones beyond a year and a half. Even Google is only supporting its own phones
for 3 years, which is still less than the _average_ lifespan of these phones
(iPhones may be higher quality, but I doubt the avg lifespan for other
flagship devices is much smaller).

I've argued before that there should probably be a law that says an electronic
device has to be supported until at least 80% of the units stop being in use.

So,for instance, if 10 million people purchased a Pixel 2, Google should
deliver software updates until fewer than 2 million Pixel 2 units are under
active use. According to this report, that may very well be 5 or 6 years.
Remember phones tend to continue to be used even after the _original buyer_
stops using it, whether it's because they sold it or handed it to someone
else.

~~~
zeveb
> And to think that virtually all the other OEMs barely even support their
> phones beyond a year and a half. Even Google is only supporting its own
> phones for 3 years, which is still less than the average lifespan of these
> phones (iPhones may be higher quality, but I doubt the avg lifespan for
> other flagship devices is much smaller).

I think the numbers include _all_ Apple devices: iPhones, iPads, Airports,
Macintoshes &c.

Certainly, I don't know anyone with a more-than-three-year-old iPhone.

~~~
aeorgnoieang
I've got an iPhone that's more than three years old.

~~~
dwc
Mine is also more than 3 years old. I hesitate to upgrade because I don't want
to lose my headphone jack, but also I don't need to upgrade yet because it
still runs fine.

~~~
memco
Have you considered the SE? It's been a pretty reliable phone, it's durable,
has a lot of the nicer features of the newer models, but still has a headphone
jack, a decent battery life (though my battery is in need of a replacement
after 2 years) and is fairly inexpensive.

------
jfasi
This is very clever from a financials analysis perspective, but I'd be careful
taking it to mean anything from an end-user perspective. This can be phrased
as: suppose some number of devices are in the wild at a given time. How long
does it take for that many devices to become inactive?

Note this is very different from: how long does it take _for all the devices
on the market at the time to become inactive?_ If these would be equivalent if
(1) iPhones were homogeneous and (2) devices had a constant lifetime, but the
truth is there are many models available and different devices become inactive
at different rates.

Concerning point (1): As an extreme example, imagine Apple releasing a rock
solid phone (iPhone RS) with a ten year lifespan followed by a crappy phone
(iPhone CR) that dies in a year. Within a year of the CR's release, they'll
all be inactive, meanwhile all the RS's will be plugging along (assuming they
all last exactly their lifespan). Meanwhile the average lifespan will be
identical to what it would be if they were released in the reverse order.

Concerning point (2): These numbers can be skewed by devices with different
lifetime distributions. If we assume, realistically in my opinion, that device
decay is a Poisson process, different devices with different decay rates mixed
together in this analysis would render this analysis way too simplistic.

For consumers who buy the very newest of devices, this isn't a particularly
helpful metric because of (1). For consumers who buy older devices, it's not
very helpful because you don't know the distributions pointed out in (2).

For financial analysts, however, this is a very interesting analysis because
it can be used to make predictions. For instance, if you assume the lifecycle
is increasing, then you see a strong incentive for Apple to get their hands on
older-but-still-functional devices so they can resell the same phone again and
again. My takeaway is I'll keep an eye out for how aggressively they market
the iPhone Upgrade Program.

~~~
oflannabhra
I think I follow what you are saying, but I'd disagree with one thing: For
consumers, all these devices come from the same company, and are developed
with (broadly) the same process. Because these products are related, a
consumer _can_ make assumptions about both new and old devices. In fact, there
is evidence that they do, if you take a look at secondary markets for Apple
devices.

What you are saying is similar to telling a consumer that they should not
trust Toyota vehicles to last longer than any other brand. When, in fact,
there is a general trend that Toyotas _do_ last longer. Sure, you aren't
_guaranteed_ that one specific Toyota Corolla will last longer than another
specific Ford Focus, but there is a general trend you can rely on.

~~~
jfasi
While my criticism is of a more technical nature than this, you do have a good
point that this can be used as a comparative metric. This certainly has value
to the marketer, but then again any number that goes up has value to a
marketer, so I suppose it should go without saying...

------
gervase
As an end-user, this is obviously a big benefit to me, as I don't need to
purchase devices as often, but how does this play from a business perspective?

Is Apple consciously promoting this as a differentiator, or is it a side
effect of their hardware/software ecosystem? How will this affect their sales
numbers long term, either positively (by promoting their platform overall) or
negatively (by reducing in-ecosystem churn)?

~~~
hedora
It helps Apple by driving the tolerable purchase price (and therefore
tolerable profit margins) up.

Put another way, they capture the same share of your computing budget and of
the App Store market but build fewer laptops and phones.

Also, Apple is highly diffentiated at the high end (walk in repairs and
support, long software compatibility timespans). Driving up expected lifespans
makes their offering _cheaper_ than the low end in the long term, allowing
them to capture increasing percentages of the total market.

They just need to execute better on the software and industrial design side
than they did in 2017. Laptops without usable keyboards, the new busted
gesture based iPhone UI, and iOS 11.0 are all bad enough to force long term
users to other ecosystems.

~~~
mfoy_
I was thinking of changing from my old Android phone to the iPhone 8... Is now
not a good time?

~~~
dkonofalski
FWIW, the iPhone 8 and X are awesome phones. There have been a few software
issues with iOS but nothing major. For example, there was recently a crash
caused by a very specific set of unicode characters. People could crash your
phone by sending it to you via a text for a whole 2 days. Now that the novelty
has worn off and Apple has patched it, it's not an issue.

------
nscalf
I mean, I guess that's interesting, but the controversy was never about the
broader lifespan of Apple devices. It has always been, as far as I've heard
and experienced, about the lifespan of Apple's phones. To think that the
knowledge that their devices quickly dropping in CPU speed wasn't considered
when they decided to throttle based off battery life is naive. They definitely
did this, and if they didn't, they are doing something seriously wrong.

------
delibes
I occasionally boot up a PowerBook G4 running Leopard - I think the last
version to support PPC. It's had a battery replacement and an SSD installed
but is still quite slow (and hot after a while). But the screen and keyboard
are nice and I think it'll last another 10+ years if I'm careful.

Still, somewhere it pops up in web analytics as an outlier :)

~~~
reaperducer
I might as well join the anecdote bandwagon.

Currently operating in my household: \- A 2003 iMac G4 (iLamp) acting as a
audio media server \- A 2004 17" PowerBook G4 that I use for long-form writing
because the keyboard is just. so. comfortable. \- A 2008 iPhone 3G (not 3GS)
with a remote dock that plays music in the library. \- A 2011 MacBook Air that
I carry around in my bag and use almost every day. (Though the battery life is
down to two hours.) \- A 2012 iPhone 4 I just replaced the battery in. It
pumps out music to the neighborhood AM radio station in my closet. \- And
finally, a launch day 2007 iPhone, which I don't use regularly, but keep in my
desk drawer and turn on every once in a while for kicks, and to make sure it
still works. Man, that screen is very hard to look at now after becoming
accustomed to retina displays.

On the other side of the coin, I can't seem to make an Airport last more than
18 months. Fortunately, there's a neverending supply of them for $5-$10 at
Goodwill.

~~~
classichasclass
The iMac G4 is a design landmark. Even though my 1GHz system is by far the
slowest of my daily drivers, I just love using it because of the form factor
(the arm on this 15" is still great, springs move well).

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triviatise
the hardware is great. I still have ipod minis that are in use playing music
everyday in my kids' rooms. However the 1st gen ipads are basically bricks as
most software wont run. Existing games work and we can run netflix, but not
amazon.

The hardware is excellent, the software deprecation path is out of sync with
the quality of the hardware.

~~~
amanzi
This is exactly the issue. I still have a MacBook Pro from 2009,a first gen
iPad, and a first gen iPod Touch. All still work well, though I did have to
replace the battery in the MacBook. But none of them can run supported
software...

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godelmachine
I'm using my iPhone 4 which I bought in Jan 2011 :)

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nickpeterson
Just a heads up, something seriously NSFW in the comments of the linked
article. Funny, but NSFW...

