
Public Transport in Wuhan Suspended Due to Coronavirus Concerns - theseadroid
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/01/22/798602296/public-transport-in-wuhan-suspended-due-to-coronavirus-concerns
======
cs702
Earlier today, researchers at Imperial College in London estimated that a
total of 4,000 cases of Coronavirus in Wuhan City (with an uncertainty range
of 1,000 to 9,700) had onset of symptoms by January 18. This compares with a
Chinese government report of 440 confirmed cases as of January 21:
[https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-
ana...](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news
--wuhan-coronavirus/)

According to the Imperial College researchers: "Exit screening (which
reportedly came into force on the 15th January) had no impact on exported
cases reported up to 16th January. Exit screening may have reduced exports in
recent days, in which case our baseline prediction may be an underestimate of
the true number of cases in Wuhan."

The researchers also write: "We assume all cases in travelers flying to
destinations outside mainland China are being detected at those destinations.
This may well not be the case. If cases are being missed in other countries,
our baseline prediction will underestimate the true number of cases in Wuhan."

If anyone has more recent or higher-quality data or information (especially if
it contradicts the Imperial estimates), please post it here!

~~~
devy
> Imperial College in London estimated that a total of 4,000 cases of
> Coronavirus in Wuhan City (with an uncertainty range of 1,000 to 9,700)

This is an estimate with a whole bunch of assumptions (may or may not be true)
and known factors and applied to a probabilistic formula (a very simple one
too.) Some I'd say this is a very rough attempt.

The 440 confirmed cases released by the daily official press release is a
fact, with all of them confirmed with lab tests and been quarantined. Those
are live numbers:
[https://3w.huanqiu.com/a/c36dc8/9CaKrnKp248?agt=8](https://3w.huanqiu.com/a/c36dc8/9CaKrnKp248?agt=8)

There is no reason to believe the simply probabilistic model would be accurate
(this is also why they suggested that the accuracy is between 1000-9700,
almost an order of magnitude difference). And there is no reason to believe
their assumptions were right either.

So you are comparing Apples to Oranges.

The best modeling for estimates about infectious disease is to use ordinary
differential equation (ODE) to model and estimate with a set of assumptions.
It talks about why the ICL's model only applicable to the early stage of the
outbreak.[1]

[1]:
[https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ab0fLOWr_9AvU4RA15rMCg](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ab0fLOWr_9AvU4RA15rMCg)
(in Chinese)

~~~
koheripbal
Given the reports of patients being turned away from hospitals, and the images
of flooded hospital corridors and ERs, it would be highly odd to conclude that
the Chinese gov't "confirmed" cases represent the extent of those infected.

The _only_ accurate method at this point is a probabilistic method.

------
supernova87a
China needs to crackdown on the ridiculous open air weird animal markets, and
have people stop sleeping with their goddamned poultry. Seafood, fine -- no
one's breathing in fish feces, getting some squid diseases. But birds,
reptiles, weird shit like that running around contaminating the air people are
breathing. I've seen it firsthand. Please, enough already.

It's demonstrably hurting their own interests at this point, after 3 recent
outbreaks of world news-worthy diseases originating in such circumstances.

~~~
forkLding
This sounds like a first-world comment, those open-air markets form because
the merchants are subsistence farmers or people living outside the city
without a lot of money and have to travel into the city. The farming in China
isn't as industrialized or corporatized as in America and you will encounter
poorer farmers or small traders who basically sell at these markets without
having to spend a lot of money for rent because it isn't a high-margin
business. Think farmers' market but filled with poor farmers. These merchants
aren't forming open-air markets for fun, it's because they have to. If you
force them out, then you will end up destroying poor people's lives.

The food and grocery companies in China who are selling in supermarkets are
already in the supermarkets.

EDIT: I dislike eating 'exotic' meats and discourage the practice, however
there's a fine line when you enforce the ban live animal market policy. Note
that it has been enacted in Wuhan when the disease started. I also support
stronger regulations and animal protections on these live animal markets and
am not deflecting blame from these live animal markets but straight-up banning
is not the right solution.

~~~
supernova87a
This sounds like an uber-liberal comment, from the mentality that no one
should be blamed and no one should be made to change their behavior because
it's not their fault. By that logic we would never be able to have any
regulations at all.

There are objective health and safety standards that countries need to impose
to move their development forward. As the other commenter stated below, when
it affects others internationally is one such time when the need becomes
painfully obvious. People will deal, and move forward. You underestimate how
people will deal with it.

China overnight banned gasoline powered motorcycles and mopeds, in the name of
public health. Show me how that destroyed the lives of millions of people.

Sometimes you can't live with all the excuses why it can't be done, and just
do it and see why it can.

~~~
infinity0
You need to come up with an alternative for people to keep getting their
income, before imposing knee-jerk regulations. Which is something that I'd
guess you've accused "uber-liberals" of before.

~~~
asfarley
No, I don't think an alternative is necessary. It might be enough to say 'this
harm is unacceptable; finding an alternative is the people's responsibility'.

For example, this is how the law treats people who sell drugs. Do you make the
same argument re: drug dealers needing an alternative source of income before
we criminalize it?

~~~
AdamJacobMuller
> Do you make the same argument re: drug dealers needing an alternative source
> of income before we criminalize it?

Unfortunately, yes, I've seen people make that argument.

I've had people tell me drug dealing is the only job available to some people
in some communities, thereby making it acceptable morally and it shouldn't be
prosecuted criminally (at least not so harshly).

------
anon463637
I've seen panic buying of face masks in Palo Alto and San Jose, mostly by
people who appear of Chinese ancestry. I was doubtful on its efficacy, but it
appears there is some benefit combined with hand-washing. It's probably a good
idea to have hand sanitizer and face masks on-hand rather than waiting until
they're sold out.

~~~
fspeech
But it certainly has altruistic value: if you are a carrier, wearing a mask
should greatly reduce the chance of infecting others.

------
leptoniscool
Isn't this overreacting?

In the US, the common flu has killed up to 61,000 people each year. This new
virus has so far only killed 15 as of 2020/1/22.

[https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html)

~~~
freewizard
You have to look at the CFR(case fatality rate) and how wide it will be
spreading.

For flu, case fatality rate is usually <0.1% [1]. As comparison, SARS in 2003
is 15% [2]. This time it's still developing (17 of 444 as of today[3]) so hard
to know for sure, but nature of this 2019-nCoV virus is close to SARS.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_pandemic)

[2]
[https://www.who.int/csr/sars/archive/2003_05_07a/en/](https://www.who.int/csr/sars/archive/2003_05_07a/en/)

[3]
[http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-01/22/c_138727379.htm](http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-01/22/c_138727379.htm)

------
hker
It is reported that some Chinese are taking antipyretics to suppress symptoms
of fever to evade quarantine checks, to get into other places like France (in
traditional Chinese [1] and Google translated [2]), Japan (in traditional
Chinese [3] and Google translated [4]) or other cities in China (in simplified
Chinese [5]).

Edit: change one source.

[1]:
[http://www.rfi.fr/tw/中國/20200122-武漢發熱女承認用退燒藥降溫後入境法國](http://www.rfi.fr/tw/中國/20200122-武漢發熱女承認用退燒藥降溫後入境法國)

[2]:
[https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%...](https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rfi.fr%2Ftw%2F中國%2F20200122-武漢發熱女承認用退燒藥降溫後入境法國)

[3]:
[https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/20200116/bkn-20200116084329...](https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/20200116/bkn-20200116084329841-0116_00822_001.html)

[4]:
[https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https...](https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fhk.on.cc%2Fhk%2Fbkn%2Fcnt%2Fnews%2F20200116%2Fbkn-20200116084329841-0116_00822_001.html)

[5]:
[https://i.lih.kg/540/https://na.cx/i/U1uhtVv.jpg](https://i.lih.kg/540/https://na.cx/i/U1uhtVv.jpg)

~~~
ETHisso2017
Three of your four non-duplicative sources are LTN or LIHKG, which are both
_extremely_ biased against China. I'd take what you're hearing with a grain of
salt.

~~~
hker
Thanks for explaining reasons for downvote.

I just changed one news source from LTN to a pro-Beijing news source Oriental
Daily News, which reported the same news.

Also, although the image (1 out of 3 non-duplicative sources) is hosted and
curated by LIHKG, the image is allegedly a screenshot on Weibo (Chinese
twitter), which unfortunately is behind a login wall and hence must be
screenshot.

I don't think Weibo is extremely biased _against_ China, unless you're
questioning the authenticity of the image, which yourself could verify by
searching 逃離武漢 on Weibo.

I hope people can engage in a civil discussion instead of/after downvoting.

------
aaron695
Given this SARS 1.5 has already spread around the world, what's the
mathematics behind this?

------
nehagup
Think about people who went there as a tourist and are suffering. ️

------
awillen
The last two books I read were Station 11 and Severance, and they make it
tough not to be at least a little paranoid about this.

Great books, though.

