

Is Adrian Peterson a Liability? A running back's fumble rate distribution - profquail
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/02/is-adrian-peterson-liability.html

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lhuang
Apologies for the tangent, but are there any HN users who are interested in
sports analytics?

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dustym
Very much so. I've been going through The Book[1] trying to work out some of
the calculations using clojure as an exercise in learning both topics.
Baseball has an incredibly rich data and deep knowledge ecosystem that is
fascinating (and sometimes profitable, just ask Nate Silver).

At my day job[2] we don't do much in the way of advanced analytics, but it's
on the wishlist. I'm veering into shameless plug territory now, but if you are
interested in this stuff, please check out our Saber blog[3]. Also if you are
a smart dev, come work with us :)

[1] <http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/>

[2] <http://www.sbnation.com/>

[3] <http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/>

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lhuang
Hi Dusty do you have an email address?

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dustym
Hiya. I just filled in some info in my profile, you can find it there.

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philwelch
I've noticed a couple of teams--like the mid-00's Packers and Seahawks--where
it didn't seem to actually matter who their running back was. Even their third
and fourth string backs would perform well. This is when I started to suspect
that a team's blocking--the offensive line and fullback--made more of a
difference to the running game than the running back. Not that you don't need
a good running back, but that the ability to run fast enough and go through
the holes created by the blockers are dime-a-dozen type talents and it's not
difficult to find someone to fit in that role.

If this is true, than probably the single most important thing that actually
hinges on the running back himself is fumble rate. (On the other hand, Adrian
Peterson seems like one of the rare running backs whose actual talent extends
beyond, say, an Ahman Green or Shaun Alexander.)

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dustym
This will be one of the questions that will always follow Barry Sanders. Can
you imagine him behind, say, Emmitt Smith's line? Or would hit have mattered,
given Sanders style of running (unbelievable field vision, lateral movements)?

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madh
This is one of the reasons for Sanders' early retirement.

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fefzero
Related to this specific article, I wonder how statistically significant these
figures are, because the sample size (number of touches) is comparatively
small. This has a lot to do with the reason baseball defensive metrics aren't
as good as batting metrics: a player gets a lot more chances at the plate than
he does in the field, and they're much easier to evaluate.

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gr366
So the conclusion was that based on the analysis he's not a liability...for
the Vikings. But as a pretty serious fantasy football owner, I wonder if —
given the fact that Peterson was the consensus #1 overall pick last season —
he was a liability to his fantasy owners. You pretty much have to play your
number 1 pick (and a homerun hitter like Peterson) every week, but were there
less glamorous, middle-tier running back choices that ended up giving their
owners a better chance of winning each week (assuming negative points for
fumbles lost in the scoring system)?

Yes, I _do_ want to be the Billy Beane of fantasy football.

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mattmiller
I owned Peterson, and although he didn't live up to the #1 spot, he did live
up to the first round. He was usually the highest scoring player on my team
even with 3 fumbles in a game.

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jsm386
Another issue with Peterson is that his yards per attempt have steadily
declined: 2007 - 5.6 ypa (2nd among backs) 2008 - 4.8 ypa (5th among backs)
2009 - 4.4 ypa (24th among backs)

In the playoffs this year he really declined (3.6 per attempt)

Source: ESPN ( To qualify, a player must have at least 6.25 attempts per
team's games played)

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mawhidby
I don't think this is necessarily something to put on Peterson. Over the
years, the Vikings have added more offensive weapons, notably a better
receiving core and aquarterback. With Brett Favre there this year, the Vikings
had a passing threat that was lacking with Tavaris Jackson, so Peterson wasn't
relied on as much to run the offense (This is similar in San Diego with LT -
his role is reduced now that Philip Rivers has become a better qb). I also
think that defenses are more prepared for him than in previous years, when he
was first breaking out on the scene.

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dschobel
I think a two-dimensional attack should, if anything, increase his efficiency
since defenses can't cheat and load the box with eight guys every down.

