
Nevada passes law authorizing driverless cars - iqster
http://blogs.forbes.com/alexknapp/2011/06/22/nevada-passes-law-authorizing-driverless-cars/
======
alanh
We expect people to be frightened of robotic cars for the same reason they are
scared of dying in a plane crash: Some deep-seated fear of dying in a manner
that isn’t our own fault. Thoughts:

1) Marketing/PR for autonomous vehicles needs to really drive home their
safety, so when you hear “robot car,” you think “… saves lives.”

2) Is it hard to imagine the opposite fear in children born 10 years from now?
Having seen mostly robotic cars in real life, and human-driven cars getting in
accidents on TV and in movies, might the child of the future react with terror
when the robotic chauffeur intones, “human driver detected, approaching from
rear”?

~~~
anti
3) Loss of jobs. When we're heading to a future of robotic anything that will
replace an entire profession, drivers in this case. What will be the economic
effect of it?

~~~
bh42222
I don't know why you're being down-voted, it's a valid question.

Computers have eliminated a lot of jobs over the last 30 to 40 years. For
example VisiCalc, did a lot of what many tax accountants charged for. It used
to be that humans, mostly women, switched (or routed if you will) phone calls.

Automation certainly does eliminate many jobs. But interestingly it also seems
to make previously impossible things possible. For example, if we still used
humans to switch phone calls, we'd need far more humans then are available.
And I don't mean looking for work, I mean _everyone_ could be working a switch
board operator and it would not be nearly enough.

On the down side, many people speculate that our tax laws have become as
complicated as they have, partly because tax prep software makes it possible
to still do your taxes for relatively cheap.

Driver-less trucks will certainly suck for truck drivers, I can just see that
History channel show taking a sad turn as more and more of its real life stars
are slowly replaced by self-driving trucks.

But what possibilities will it create? Could cars, or for that matter trucks,
become like a subscription? You just subscribe and then if at any point and
any where you need a ride, you just dial a number and a few minutes later a
dirverless vehicle arrives to take you anywhere.

The same could work for goods. Request as much trucking capacity as you need,
minutes before you need it. The trucks just show up.

How many hours total (everyone's added up) hours sitting in traffic could be
eliminated if a clear majority of the cars are intelligent and networked?
Thousand? Millions? All that previously unproductive time, now productive.

All the lives saved from accidents, will they create jobs?

~~~
nooneelse
Personally, I look forward to self-driving sleeper cars and a new type of
motel that is little more than a secure parking lot plus some nice bathrooms.
What is the feeling of "where you live" if you switch cities each time you
sleep?

Also, in your hypothetical, if we are all routing calls as our day job,
doesn't that mean that at any one time, 1/3 of humans are asleep, 1/3 routing
calls, 1/3 possibly on calls. With at least two people per call. How can that
not be workable?

~~~
sbierwagen

      With at least two people per call. How can that not be workable?
    

He was partially referring to the internet. What would the web look like if
two servers that wanted to move data between each other, (say, in a stock
exchange) had to use circuit-switched telephony?

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mkr-hn
I think driverless cars could be the future of public transportation. Instead
of big trains and buses with limited reach, we would have thousands of public
vehicles that take you where you need to go when you need to be there. It
eliminates the big barriers to public transport--the lack of personal space,
timing, and reach.

No car? Just hop on the municipal/county dispatch website, request a car, pay
your fee, and wait for the nearest open vehicle to bring itself to you. It can
even coexist peacefully with private transportation.

~~~
DanielStraight
How do you deal with the inherent inefficiency of having a separate vehicle
for every passenger (or small group of passengers)?

Publicness is not the only benefit of public transportation. Trains and buses
are incredibly efficient per passenger mile. They also take up a lot less
space than cars, and last longer and cost less per passenger to manufacture.
Making a car driverless doesn't solve these problems.

~~~
dkokelley
Theoretically, driverless cars could be programmed to behave in a collective
fashion. Yes, a train is incredibly efficient when 300 people need to go from
the same place to a different place. But in reality, 300 people are coming
from 300 places and going 300 places. Driverless cars could calculate partial
carpools or transfers to more efficient vehicles like trains depending on the
needs of the commuters. A "smart car" could drop the commuter(s) off at the
train station, and another car could pick the commuter(s) up for the final leg
of their trip.

~~~
graywh
This.

A few weeks ago, I left my house for the grocery 2 miles away. I followed a
car from my subdivision to the grocery. After shopping, I followed the same
car back from the grocery to my subdivision.

~~~
groby_b
Of course, this points out a failure in public engineering, not the need for
automated cars. (As much as I'd love to have them)

Urban sprawl is a gigantic problem that we need to address, and soon. It not
only affects transportation - there's general maintenance cost, social
effects, land use, etc.

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iqster
Apparently, Google had been lobbying the state of Nevada for this.

It's very interesting to read this Scientific American article from late May
(mentions Google's lobbying efforts):
[http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=google-
driv...](http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=google-driverless-
robot-car)

Edit: NY Times article talking about this more directly ...
<http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/11/science/11drive.html?_r=1>

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kellishaver
As an individual who is legally blind and cannot drive, I very much welcome
the day when this technology becomes wide-spread and affordable.

It is extremely annoying to be in your mid 30's and have to rely
on/inconvenience someone else to drive you around.

So whether it were getting my own vehicle or seeing vast improvements made to
less-than ideal public transportation systems, either would be great.

~~~
esoteriq
I was thinking that driverless cars would be a boon for people who cannot
drive (for whatever reason -- visual or otherwise).

I do wonder, however, if laws will require driverless cars to have a person
who is able to drive. (For legal or liability reasons in case of an equipment
failure.) I do hope that doesn't happen, but it's possible.

~~~
yichi
Actually once it's been proven that robots drive much better than humans
(which is not very difficult), people will want to probably outlaw human
driving.

~~~
esoteriq
I wasn't really thinking about driving skills, but about equipment failure.
There will always be a risk of equipment failure for automated machinery.
Also, there's a risk of human error in the code governing driving.

One possible workaround is to have several people at some centralized location
monitor driverless car performance. A monitorer could override the car and
drive the car remotely in the event of equipment failure or bugs in the code.

But, maybe that's a pipe dream.

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darrennix
I believe one of the most overlooked benefits of driverless cars is that it
makes small-engine, low acceleration (high efficiency) cars acceptable for the
American market. Most Americans are currently unwilling to drive a 1 liter
engine car because of its no fun to drive, but if you are lounging in the back
seat you won't care.

~~~
jessriedel
As an American who is exactly as you describe, I agree. This may be a way to
sell the idea to skeptical people of certain political persuasions, but the
other benefits of driverless cars (greatly reduced numbers of death and
injury, huge amounts of human time freed) will dwarf the gas efficiency
improvement.

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stevenp
This means there's going to be a market for in-car bar equipment! Someone is
going to make millions on DC-powered blenders and cup holders that can safely
accomodate cocktail shakers. :)

~~~
bh42222
In-car big screen TVs, right in front of the windshield! Two seater sized
cars, but with only one set of very specious seats/recliners.

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rmason
My state of Michigan is known as the birthplace of the automobile. We had the
first stretch of paved road in the world as well as the first stoplight.

But we've abdicated our leadership in the automotive industry by turning our
back on this development. Michigan rightly should have been the first state to
legalize this technology.

It seems as if the auto technology breakthroughs are coming from Silicon
Valley. Bob Lutz said the Chevy Volt was developed in response to the Tesla's
embarassing us. Now its Google's turn to embarass and challenge Detroit's
engineers.

~~~
nitrogen
_We had the first stretch of paved road in the world_

What qualifications are you adding that exclude stone-paved streets in ancient
South America, Europe, and the Middle East?

~~~
Aloisius
I imagine the poster meant paved with asphalt which in the US is called
pavement.

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rdouble
I'm surprised by the comments that imply we'll solve traffic congestion and be
snoozing safely in the passenger seat as our robot cars zip us to work in
10-20 years. I live in a technical world where a team of geniuses can barely
keep a system up that exchanges 140 character messages.

~~~
georgemcbay
"Robot cars" don't need to deal with the sort of scale or coupling that causes
systems like the one you described to fail (the system you reference itself
doesn't really need to be that way, technically... it is that way for the
purposes of centralized control).

The "robot car" I may be sleeping in doesn't have to worry about what the
other 300 million cars on the road are up to, only the 10 or so that happen to
be immediately around me.

Yes, there are real problems to be solved in this area but they are very
different sorts of problems than scaling and at the current rate of progress I
wouldn't be too surprised if automated driving were available as a high end
option on some cars within 15 years.

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cal5k
This is great news! Nevada is pretty consistently willing to be the reference
case on a lot of forward-thinking ideas.

~~~
phlux
Prostitution, Gambling, 24-hour alcohol sales, Driverless cars, rentable fully
automatic weapons!

Come to Nevada, we are the FUTURE!

EDIT: I was not actually bemoaning any of these, uh, services. I lived in
Nevada for a few years and aside from the fact that I was traumatized against
it by the game Fallout - actually like Nevada. It is one of those states that
actually fantastic to live in if you have enough money/your own business.

I plan to retire back to the Nevada side of Tahoe. Lets see how well those
driverless cars handle snow.

~~~
JoeAltmaier
No drive-thru beer vendors like Texas?

~~~
ktsmith
There are drive through liquor stores in some counties.

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wccrawford
I really didn't expect this to happen within 10 years. I'm amazed that this
happened so fast.

~~~
amalcon
Well, the technology has been nearly there for over a decade. The problems are
all legal. The obvious part was that automated cars are illegal to begin with.
Less obviously, the liability situation is unclear: who would be willing to
accept liability for the driverless car? The company that makes it would be at
a huge risk at the mass market stage, because there would be many cars.
Therefore, they would be unwilling. The passenger has no control over the car,
so they would likewise be unwilling. The state could do it, but this is
unlikely. The accident victim could be stuck with it, but this is
unacceptable.

So, who takes the liability?

~~~
mkr-hn
Insurance companies can see how reliable these things have become, and they
know how bad humans are at driving. Insurers will probably start mandating
automation (or offering incentives) in the next 5-7 years.

~~~
bh42222
Exactly, if these cars are statistically safer the insurance companies will
notice that in a very few years. And then they will strongly encourage
drivers, or should I say car owners, to get these.

Especially if you are in a demographic the car insurance companies consider
risky, you'll get to choose between paying A LOT to dive yourself, or a hell
of a lot less to have the car drive you.

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bh42222
YES!

Here is why this is great. As the industrial revolution was just starting up,
many places in Europe banned this or that new labor saving invention - to
preserve jobs. But not all, many others allowed the new machinery, this
quickly forced all other to either also allow it or fall behind economically.

Back to Nevada, Google will now start moving cars there. I can't be the only
who wants to sleep during the commute to work, people in Nevada will start
doing that. At least some old people will use this, and then more and more as
they see how great it works and grants them greater independence. Parents
could start using it for their teenagers. It will save lives. How long before
someone in Nevada starts an all driver-less taxi service?

This marks the beginning of an honest to goodness technological revolution,
how often do you see that happening in one lifetime? And it's staring in
Nevada.

~~~
JoeAltmaier
So next: car alarm clock! So you don't end up sleeping half the day away in
your work parking lot.

------
callahad
Can anyone comment on the state of autonomous vehicles with regard to their
ability to operate in mixed, human traffic? I would think that human drivers
would be dangerously erratic and thus extraordinarily difficult to account
for.

And what do you do, as a passenger, when your driverless car induces road rage
in a human driver?

~~~
corecirculator
Google has tested their autonomous car for >10000 miles on US roads and
highways over the last few years. So yes, they handle human driver traffic.

~~~
callahad
Oh wow, I missed that those trials were on actual, trafficked roads and
highways. Thanks for pointing that out, corecirculator!

Cite: <https://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/10/science/10google.html>

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monkeypizza
from an open letter to the French Parliament in 1845:

"We are suffering from the ruinous competition of a rival who apparently works
under conditions so far superior to our own for the production of light that
he is flooding the domestic market with it at an incredibly low price; for the
moment he appears, our sales cease, all the consumers turn to him, and a
branch of French industry whose ramifications are innumerable is all at once
reduced to complete stagnation. This rival, which is none other than the sun,
is waging war on us so mercilessly we suspect he is being stirred up against
us by perfidious Albion (excellent diplomacy nowadays!), particularly because
he has for that haughty island a respect that he does not show for us."

"We ask you to be so good as to pass a law requiring the closing of all
windows, dormers, skylights, inside and outside shutters, curtains, casements,
bull's-eyes, deadlights, and blinds — in short, all openings, holes, chinks,
and fissures through which the light of the sun is wont to enter houses, to
the detriment of the fair industries with which, we are proud to say, we have
endowed the country, a country that cannot, without betraying ingratitude,
abandon us today to so unequal a combat."

from "A PETITION From the Manufacturers of Candles, Tapers, Lanterns, sticks,
Street Lamps, Snuffers, and Extinguishers, and from Producers of Tallow, Oil,
Resin, Alcohol, and Generally of Everything Connected with Lighting."

source: [<http://bastiat.org/en/petition.html>]

~~~
ciphergoth
NB to the casual reader: the above was always intended as satire.

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chacha102
I'm guessing that it will be really important to allow cops to disable
autonomous cars, or at least force them to pull over and stop.

I'm really interested in how they will handle that issue.

~~~
knieveltech
However they do it it better be secure, otherwise definitely expect a market
for illicit little devices that allow you to plow traffic out of your lane on
the interstate.

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roundsquare
Interesting that the limited the law to highways (edit: the law limited the
use of autonomous vehicles to highways) (section 2, paragraph 1). I suppose it
makes sense since highway driving is more predictable but its also higher
speed and thus accidents are more dangerous. Also, this limitation would
require the presence of a human driver to get the car to the highway.

~~~
esrauch
I actually suspect this will be the first use; real cruise control where you
safely drive yourself onto the highway and then activate the automatic driver.

------
Hawramani
[Survey question] What are Google's options for monetizing driverless cars?

~~~
patio11
Lease the technology to, without loss of generality, Toyota, for annual
license payments higher than the GDP of some nations.

~~~
orangecat
This. When I did rough calculations a few years ago, the total economic
benefits of driverless cars was on the order of a trillion dollars a year.
Capturing even 10% of that would make Google by far the most valuable company
in the world.

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hollerith
It would be more difficult for an innovation like driverless cars to get a
start in a country like France where almost any change in the laws requires
the involvement of the national government. (In the U.S., most legal cases,
including the laws of the road and most serious crimes like robbery, rape and
murder, are handled by the individual 50 states.)

~~~
esrauch
It's worth noting that the US is so significantly larger than France that it's
not really directly analogous to compare Nevada with something like Lorraine
in France. California + Texas together have about the same population as
France, the two combined have a significantly higher GDP than France, and
Texas alone is more land area than all of France.

I suspect that it would actually be harder for something like Marijuana
legalization to actually occur in California and Texas than it would be for it
to occur in France, because the lumbering Federal government exists where
there isn't really a close analogous overriding body in France (perhaps the EU
to some extent).

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icey
I can't wait to be able to buy one of these.

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allenp
This could make road trips a lot more fun.

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zaidf
Anyone else think this thread may be linked to 10-20 years from now when this
thing begins to take off?

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rmrm
unfortunately I get car sick. A robot car means either extreme boredom or
sickness, I cant look away from the road. But I will be happy to be the last
human driver, surrounded by safe robot cars.

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phlux
This should be a feature that one can enable should you have consumed any
alcohol.

~~~
jmonegro
Maybe measure your BAC according to your breath or something.

~~~
baconner
In fact breathalyzer based ignition locks already exist.
[http://www.technovelgy.com/ct/Science-Fiction-
News.asp?NewsN...](http://www.technovelgy.com/ct/Science-Fiction-
News.asp?NewsNum=2512)

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jarek
My other driverless car is a subway

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tejaswiy
Come on guys, no William Gibson references yet? - "The future is already here
— it's just not very evenly distributed."

