

Bad models and the end of the world - spindritf
http://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2014/03/23/bad-models-and-the-end-of-you/

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gus_massa
I think the analysis is interesting, but I don't like the tone.

A few remarks:

> _[...] All of the following assumptions are made by this model. [...]_

> _8\. Elites all have times a subsistence income, rather than a smooth
> distribution of incomes_

> _9\. Peasants all have , a subsistence income, rather than a smooth
> distribution of incomes_

This kind of hypothesis are standard in a rough model. They simplify the model
and with some luck they don't affect the result too much.

> _5\. The elite class of humans preys on the peasants and produces nothing_

This is not standard and has more ideological than empirical base. You can use
this as a definition of "elite class" and then proclaim that wealthy=elite,
...

> _There are more assumptions than this, but you get the idea: this model is
> ridiculous, over parameterized, and designed to get the answers that they
> did._

This is important. Overparameterization is a very strong red flag, unless you
have a lot of empirical evidence to support each (most of) parameter.

> _[Nafeez Ahmed in the Guardian 's story] asserts that the paper actually
> compares historical civilizations using this model. It does nothing of the
> sort. The paper mention historical civilizations, but they don’t even make
> legalistic arguments that, say, the ancient Egyptians, whose civilization
> lasted for thousands of years, somehow follow these equations._

