
The SF Anti-Mask League of 1919 - 9nGQluzmnq3M
https://mobile.twitter.com/timkmak/status/1251936242834563073
======
accountinhn
If anyone is interested here is report published in 2007 by St.louis Federal
Reserve about the 1918 Flu pandemic.

[https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-
deve...](https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-
development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf)

------
mturmon
See also this article from the LA Times, comparing the LA vs. SF reactions to
the 1918-1919 pandemic:
[https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-19/coronavi...](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-19/coronavirus-
lessons-from-great-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic)

------
trhway
>On Jan 17, the day the masking ordinance went into effect, the # of new
cases/deaths declined, the first decline in quite some time. This continued
until the epidemic faded.

same-day effect, especially on the number of deaths, of the masks? To me it
sounds like it peaked and started to decline before any effects from the masks
as the masks effect on the death number would take a few days at least. I mean
i'm not against the masks, i do think they have positive effect, it is just in
that case it seems that the mask ordinance came too late. It was already
something like 2 months of the raging second wave.

~~~
hilbertseries
Sounds like the ordinance was announced before hand and then was going to be
required on that day. So people likely began wearing them more before that
day.

------
dnautics
It feels like the lesson here is that enforcement with arrests is going to
provoke a backlash, whereas convincing people it's good for them is a better
strategy.

~~~
DSingularity
Only if you assume people never change. I’m willing to bet people would
respond differently today - in times where a record will severely impact your
career potential.

~~~
scollet
This is not okay considering non-violent offense is heavily prosecuted,
especially among minority communities. Please consider a more nuanced
argument.

------
bcoates
Is there any reason to believe that gauze masks are even slightly effective
against influenza?

The flu can stay viable in air for hours, and the individual exhaled airborne
particles are vastly smaller than the holes in gauze -- it's "breathable"
(allows moisture droplets to pass)

I suspect the mechanism of action is inconveniencing people into not leaving
home at all, a no-pants order would probably have worked as well or better

~~~
Mr_P
Masks are effective at stopping people from unintentionally infecting others.

See: [https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/well/live/coronavirus-
fac...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/well/live/coronavirus-face-masks-
guides-protection-personal-protective-equipment.html)

"Even a simple mask is very effective at trapping droplets from your coughs
and sneezes. A recent study published in Nature from the University of Hong
Kong and the University of Maryland asked 111 people, infected with various
viral illnesses (influenza, rhinovirus and a more-mild coronavirus), to exhale
into a giant funnel. Sometimes their noses and mouths weren’t covered; other
times they used a simple, not-particularly-well-fitted mask.

Without the masks, the infected people exhaled contagious droplets and
aerosols, tiny particles that linger in the air, about 30 percent of the time
they were tested. When the infected patients wore a mask, it blocked nearly
100 percent of viral droplets and some of the aerosol particles."

~~~
DanBC
But see this research, which found masks didn't help prevent covid-19 from
leaving infected people.

[https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764367/effectiveness-
sur...](https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764367/effectiveness-surgical-
cotton-masks-blocking-sars-cov-2-controlled-comparison)

If people are going to wear masks we need to make sure that they don't touch
the mask or their face, or that they wash their hands immediately after doing
so.

~~~
erik
Interesting, they state the conclusion that "both surgical and cotton masks
seem to be ineffective in preventing the dissemination of SARS–CoV-2 from the
coughs of patients with COVID-19 to the environment"

But they also say this: "The median viral loads after coughs without a mask,
with a surgical mask, and with a cotton mask were 2.56 log copies/mL, 2.42 log
copies/mL, and 1.85 log copies/mL, respectively."

That seems like a significant reduction in transmitted viral load? I would
think that masks can have a positive impact even if they aren't perfect
filters. If you look at their table of data, the reduction trend is consistent
across their tests. But between the small number of patients(4) and samples,
and the number of Petri dishes that came back as 'Not Detected', it seems like
a pretty low powered study. :-/

They are also explicitly testing coughs. I wonder about the effects on
filtering droplets generated from normal breathing and talking.

~~~
em500
Indeed, the actual numerical results in the article table shows that masks are
very effective, so it's puzzling where their narrative conclusions came from.

~~~
bcoates
A log-reduction of around 0.5 isn't much. "very effective" would be like 3-4
which even this n=4 study is enough to rule out

~~~
C1sc0cat
No offence you might want to brush up on your Maths and how log scales work.

~~~
infecto
No offense but you should do a better job at explaining whats wrong instead of
telling someone to brush up on math.

------
strategarius
We have huge fines here in South-East Asia, if you leave home without a mask.
Even if probability of decrease transmitting 10%, on 1 million cases it's 100
thousand people.

~~~
scollet
Are the fines more of a signal (i.e. fines for jaywalking) or are they more
cut in stone and expecting recuperation?

------
tgsovlerkhgsel
So what was the problem with the masks? The thread calls it "The dollar sign
is exalted above the health sign" but why was this a money tradeoff? Due to
the cost of the masks?

~~~
javagram
Business leaders were opposed to the mask ordinance because they thought it
would reduce the people shopping in the stores.

Wearing the masks was seen as uncomfortable and so people didn’t want to do
it.

~~~
agumonkey
It's funny how logic operates. Dead customers come a lot less in stores.
Masking is a little discomfort for prolonged "benefits" (morality quotes).
Business type persons should know better about long term investment..

~~~
Fricken
If Covid is ignored you might lose 3% of your business over the long run.
Shutting down indefinitely to avoid Covid means you go bankrupt.

~~~
agumonkey
Over the long run I think it's fair to say nobody knows. What happens with an
uncontained epidemic ?

------
refurb
This is a great example of "there is nothing new under the sun".

People may feel we live in unique times, but yet again, not much has changed
since 1919.

~~~
kevin_thibedeau
> not much has changed since 1919.

The 1919 SF Chronicle was easier to read.

~~~
refurb
Since they didn't have Reddit as a source, they actually had to put some
effort into stories!

~~~
take_a_breath
And people actually paid for it, too!!

------
marcell
Early 1900's were also the heyday of eugenics.

The author above says civil libertarians were worried about a slippery slope,
where mask laws could lead to forced vaccines "or any experiment or
indignity." I think anti-mask concern is more interesting in that context.

------
mindslight
The restless extrovert's outlook is super bizarro. I'm personally looking
forward to wearing a mask long after this pandemic has passed, to defend my
privacy against ubiquitous facial recognition.

I want to live in a world where these things aren't legally mandated, but
everyone does them because they're good ideas. Apparently that world is
impossible.

It's similar to the people that don't wear their seatbelt to somehow stick it
to the government. Apparently their driving is so lame that they've never
appreciated the seatbelt while cornering? Sigh.

~~~
Melting_Harps
> I want to live in a world where none of these things are legally mandated,
> but everyone does them because they're good ideas. Apparently that world is
> impossible.

Helmet laws in the several US states are a good example, I grew up in SoCal,
where its mandated for bikes/motorcycles, but more importantly spent a lot of
time in 4 wheel motorsports and saw their efficacy on more occasions than I
can count. I used to be the only one to wear one during canyon carving as well
as track events.

I didn't ride a motorcycle until I got to CO, where helmets are optional, and
despite that I would never swing a leg over a bike without one. The only
people I ever see ignore helmets are harley riding guys with bare skin exposed
all over, often way older, as most of the sport bike community understand that
gear is everything in even a low speed, low side if they've been in one.

After a lowside myself with cheap gear, except my helmet as that was a $700
write off, due to a negligent driver and inexperience on my part
(specifically: how not to panic towards that as it frequently occurs on the
street) I learned the hard way how important 'dressing for the crash' really
is and not just a helmet only priority.

The only time I ever rode without a helmet was riding my motorcycle from one
end of the parking lot to my storage unit (maybe 1/2 mile, if that) during my
first incoming snap frost/blizzard and it felt so incredibly stupid at 10MPH
in 1st gear feathering the throttle I'd never do it again.

I'm not sure what serious lack of self preservation you must have to ever
willingly ride at speed without one, but perhaps its not so bad to weed that
out of the gene pool and not having it expedites the process?

~~~
hinoki
Helmets should be optional so long as you are an organ donor. You could have a
different coloured license plate.

Maybe that would get the point across?

~~~
RhysU
Trading body parts for liberty is a dodgy precedent.

------
teekert
Pretty confusing that the first tweet starts with 2018, should be 1918 I
guess. Man I hate platforms that don't allow editing ones sentences, like
Whatsapp. So often I find mistake, very often the last word that was
autocorrected between the time I typed it and hit enter and couldn't stop my
finger from going down on that send key anymore.

------
js8
Can somebody please explain this expression: "I'm not kidding I went HAM
researching this"

~~~
oblio
[https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/go_ham](https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/go_ham)

------
EGreg
Masks could have prevented the quarantines, and will be needed again when they
end. The quarantines are a last resort, after the failure of public policy and
non-medical-interventions to contain the virus.

I made a video which shows that masks are the answer, there is no shortage,
and that our government leaders were wrong in telling us not to wear them:

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppiPaYI-x4E](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppiPaYI-x4E)

~~~
woofie11
You should consider making a short article instead. No one will watch 30
minutes.

------
agumonkey
someone on reddit found some disturbing astroturfing

[https://old.reddit.com/r/bestof/comments/g3sw2l/the_user_udr...](https://old.reddit.com/r/bestof/comments/g3sw2l/the_user_udr_midnight_uncovers_a_massive/)

lots of new facebook groups like pages asking for reopening, then retweeted by
the president

crowds are so weird

~~~
SpicyLemonZest
I worry that the modern definition of "astroturfing" is so broad that it can
be applied to any kind of large-scale organizing. It shouldn't be surprising
to discover that the anti-shutdown movements in various states have ties with
each other and with anti-shutdown politicians.

~~~
takeda
Astroturfing is actually appropriate. The movement pretends to be grassroots.
This looks like it was organized in multiple states (possibly even countries)
by the same organization, that's not grassroots.

~~~
koheripbal
I would say almost all modern protests are like that - driven by specific
politicians and their media colleagues.

~~~
take_a_breath
Based on what evidence?

~~~
jeffdavis
It's kind of a grey area and debatable. A group of people starts protesting on
a small scale, and then quickly gets a lot of professional and political help,
along with a lot of attention from media that wants to push a narrative.

~~~
carapace
_Based on what evidence?_

~~~
jeffdavis
My point was that, for something that is fairly grey such as the coordination
versus spontaneity of protesters, you're not going to get solid evidence.

Any disinterested search for truth here would involve reams of original-source
facts. This is probably not the right forum for that.

FWIW I did not make the claim for which you are requesting evidence. I just
don't think asking for evidence in this case will be very fruitful.

~~~
carapace
Fair enough.

------
mike_d
A more readable version:
[https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1251936242834563073.html](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1251936242834563073.html)

~~~
TACIXAT
Thanks! I wanted to share this with my dad and with the difficulty I had
finding the "show thread" button on the Twitter mobile site I knew he would
only see the first tweet then bounce.

~~~
Kiro
Twitter UI is a disaster.

~~~
pjc50
Editable tweets are a problem when combined with retweets and likes: you could
end up liking something you really don't endorse and being harassed for it.

(I also suspect immutability simplifies their infrastructure a lot)

~~~
nradov
That's not a real problem. Facebook public posts can be edited, shared, and
liked. No one complains about that. I frequently edit my public posts to
correct typos and such.

~~~
ardy42
> That's not a real problem. Facebook public posts can be edited, shared, and
> liked. No one complains about that. I frequently edit my public posts to
> correct typos and such.

Socially, Twitter is more of a public forum than Facebook, though. That could
change how people use and perceive the feature on the different platforms.

------
yumario
Can we stop posting twitter treats?

~~~
notacoward
No. I'm not a fan of the format either, but if that's the way that someone
chooses to disseminate informative content then style concerns are
insufficient reason to forego it. The bikeshed doesn't have to be blue.

------
alex_young
This is not a civil rights thing. This is a public health thing.

Being opposed to keeping crowds off of beaches and people from infecting one
another in restaurants is akin to advocating against vaccinations or seatbelt
use.

Right now we are in the middle of a flaming inferno and there is a vital role
for our democratically elected government to play in mandating mask use and
other measures. This is very much a war like moment and we should unify in our
resolve to defeat our shared enemy.

------
icelancer
Comparing the SF health officer from 1918-1919 to Dr. Fauci is a bit rough
since Dr. Fauci was anti-mask and also said the risk of coronavirus was
miniscule in mid-February.

[https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/02/17/nih-
di...](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/02/17/nih-disease-
official-anthony-fauci-risk-of-coronavirus-in-u-s-is-minuscule-skip-mask-and-
wash-hands/4787209002/)

~~~
javagram
> Short of that, Fauci says skip the masks unless you are contagious,

I think since February we’ve learned more and more that people without
symptoms are contagious. The only way to follow Fauci’s advice in that case is
to wear a mask because we don’t know if we have the virus or not.

See this email from a government doctor on Feb 23:
[https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-r...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-
red-dawn-emails-trump.html)

[https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/04/11/us/politics/11dc-...](https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/04/11/us/politics/11dc-
virus-reconstruct-doc6-04-sidebar/11dc-virus-reconstruct-
doc6-04-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale&width=1200)

~~~
throwaway41920
> I think since February we’ve learned more and more that people without
> symptoms are contagious.

Here's an article from January[1]:

> "There's no doubt after reading this paper that asymptomatic transmission is
> occurring," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for
> Allergy and Infectious Diseases. "This study lays the question to rest."

I've noticed a lot of excuses for poor decisions, as well as rewriting of
history that's only a couple of months old. I doubt we're going to see much
accountability for the way the pandemic was mishandled.

[1] [https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/coronavirus-
asymptomat...](https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-
spread-study/index.html)

~~~
timr
Not for nothing...that paper was later debunked. Fauci was way out over his
skis on that one:

[https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/report-of-
asympto...](https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/report-of-asymptomatic-
transmission-of-2019-ncov-inaccurate-67060)

Current thinking is that there's statistical evidence for pre-symptomatic
transmission about 2-3 days before symptoms appear:

[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S138665322...](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1386653220300998?via%3Dihub)

~~~
belorn
The question then in context become if mask helps during those 2-3 days before
symptoms appear. There is a few links above that links to the effectiveness
against coughing and sneezing, but I would guess those are symptoms.

~~~
timr
Nobody knows. We know that "real" masks (i.e. n95 or better) are effective
when worn properly, but many people don't wear them properly.

The evidence for effectiveness of other kinds of masks in the prevention of
virus transmission is weak, at best.

------
nitwit005
I find the conclusion that the masks helped a little puzzling. I'm sure it
indeed slowed the rate of infection, but what they ultimately wanted to happen
was fewer total people getting sick. With constant travel through SF, slowing
the infection doesn't seem like it should produce that result, just spread it
out over more time.

------
Stranger43
The problem here is that when you start passing laws and fines on people not
for causing damage to other but "for their own good" that are essentially
violating core principles of modern democracy(as in the right to assembly, or
conduct commerce), the state are taking on the persona of an "benevolent
dictatorship" which are bound to drive some people towards contrarianism.

The measures taken might be completely right from an medical science
perspective but we have moved away from a system where an enlightened monarch
or central committee makes decisions on behaf of the ignorant people because
history have shown that such systems always devolve into conspiracies against
the many by the powerful few, so we cannot respond to every minor crisis by
having the government adopt the tactics and language of an benevolent
dictatorship and must govern by consent, ie it's the scientists job to make
the public understand the risks/benefits not dictate solutions.

~~~
notacoward
Where do you get the idea that masks are only about the person's own good, and
not to prevent damage to others?

~~~
Stranger43
From the enlightened central committee, who have yet to pass an law making it
illegal to unknowingly walk the streets while being infected with an virus(and
even the common cold is deadly to the vulnerable).

At what point will it ever be legal again to break isolation, and where were
the constitutional process that allowed the government to restrict fundamental
rights no simple parliamentary majority can interfere with?

This is the problem you have an government making decree's it never had the
authority to do because of an "crisis" with no clear star/end condition, which
basic sociology predicts will lead to people getting contrarian views and
reactions especially if the response to criticism is an "call to authority" no
matter how deserved that call is.

------
renewiltord
It looks like a pretty good strategy is to allow people who believe this to go
out and kill themselves. On the other hand, what if they’re right and no ones
going to die over this? You could require that they pay into a hazard bond
that pays out back to them if they don’t get sick.

~~~
fred_is_fred
This isn't like riding a motorcycle without a helmet. I personally don't care
if they want to go kill themselves, but these people are also at the grocery
store, or walking in neighborhoods, or at the gas station -- infecting and
possibly killing others.

~~~
sherincall
Even riding a motorcycle without a helmet has externalities - more severe
injuries from accidents could raise insurance rates across the board, and
these people take from the ER/ICU capacity that others could use.

I guess you could have a policy of just letting them die if they get into an
accident without a helmet, but that its own host of problems.

~~~
fred_is_fred
In fact not wearing a helmet might be cheaper - a quick death versus a
lifetime of care.

