
Luck and startups: Our journey - jenthoven
https://www.kapwing.com/blog/make-your-own-lightning/
======
cyberferret
I agree with the premise of this article. In my nearly 40 years as a (self
employed in 3 of my own businesses) software developer and watching many
companies make it (or go under), it appears that pure, unadulterated luck is a
_massive_ factor in whether a company makes it huge, or just potters along.

It is sad that many founders or business owners tend to gloss over this fact
when they go on to write blog posts or write a book or go on the speaking
circuit when they have 'made it'. It is easy sometimes to attribute to 'good
old fashioned hard work' what can be attributed to pure luck.

Running a successful business is somewhat akin to a lottery.

~~~
jenthoven
[This is Julia, the OC] In some ways, this article is a response to this
sentiment. It's true that luck is an important factor, but you can make your
own luck through hard work. Being successful with startups is not like winning
the lottery, because lottery winners just sit around holding a ticket. Startup
founders are constantly working to attract more luck - or lightning - to
themselves.

~~~
cyberferret
I appreciate the sentiment of 'making your own luck', and while I think that
it is true to a certain extent, there are also the opposite cases.

Let's look at one totally random example off the top of my head - Grumpy Cat.
Now, GC's owners basically sat there while the owner's brother I believe,
posted the cat's picture on social media, which turned into a storm that
netted GC's owners multi millions of dollars in marketing deals. Sure there
was probably some hard work after the fact in managing those deals, but
initially, it was just pure dumb luck of the cat's picture being posted in the
right place at the right time to ignite the response of the world. Tons of
other cat pictures go unnoticed every day.

I had a client many years ago - a nice chap, but not what I would call a good
businessman. He had trouble stringing a coherent sentence together, and had a
bad drinking and gambling problem. Only he happened to start an aboriginal art
retail business right when 'Crocodile Dundee' came out and Australian
Aboriginal Art was the big thing. He basically had a $1M annual turnover
business overnight, and had no clue how to manage it. In fact, we were called
in to run an audit because some of his employees were embezzling truckloads of
money from him right under his nose. He just lucked into a thriving business
but not due to any sort of acumen or hard work. Next door to him there was an
auto mechanic business I also worked with whose owner (who was in a wheelchair
BTW) worked 80+ hours per week to struggle to put food on his family's table.
I found it hard to look at these two businesses literally running side by
side, and say that it was anything but dumb luck that separated them,
regardless of hard work.

~~~
TheOsiris
these are not startups though and you can't compare them to a startup.

sure, luck is a factor in everything but it's not a make or break factor in
startups. in startups you make your own luck. you work hard, suffer the small
wins and losses, until you get yourself in the right place at the right time.
some people find that opportunity early, some later but both get there because
they worked at it. even Uber founders had to work hard for it. and don't even
get me started on Airbnb's founders

~~~
jenthoven
[Julia again] Y'all should read the article! These examples of "lightning
striking" absolutely happens to people that don't work hard for it. But
knowing and appreciating the role of chance doesn't mean that hard work
doesn't pay off, because hard work can make you more likely to experience a
stroke of luck.

~~~
TheOtherHobbes
The question is the extent to which that is true, and whether or not it's the
primary factor involved in a success.

Work hard => success is a simplistic and misleading mythology, not an
evidence-based reality. It also leads to toxic relationships with workers,
because if a founder or manager believes that more hours = success they'll
make some very stupid business decisions and trash the quality of life of some
of their employees _for no good reason._

If hard work (how is that measured?) isn't a primary factor - and plenty of
research suggests it isn't - then the realistic way for founders to increase
their chances of success is to understand that factors that actually
contribute the most, and maximise those.

------
vinayms
I often think that people conflate bad product with bad luck. Specifically wrt
tech startups/companies, there are way too many copycats that churn out half
baked and substandard products that are yet another version of an already
established and popular product. Further, there won't be many important things
that set them apart from the products they intend to siphon off the customers
from. These are destined to fail.

If anything, some copy cats are indeed lucky and take off, leaving most
wondering how exactly did they succeed. Of course, these lucky ones later
cobble together stuff that makes then a bit different from the competition,
possibly eventually acquiring big competitors.

The only thing I agree with is that weak promotion and marketing can harm the
success of a good product. That said, it is my firm belief that quality always
wins. A really good product will become a sleeper hit sooner or later if it
has gathered enough mass.

~~~
pryelluw
I would go as far and say that people confuse bad luck with with bad
execution.

------
aytekin
If you have patience and persistence, this is the secret:

“Put up as many metal rods as possible” x Time

I made a list of 30 things we need to do to reach 1 million users. I didn’t
think we’d ever reach a million users since we were only getting like 100
signups/day.

Today, we have 3.5 million users and getting 3000 signups per day. It took us
12 years to get here but when I look at that list I see that I have tried
everything on it but pretty much none of them really worked. I have tried
hundreds of other things and found a few things that worked.

So, lightening is a good metaphor.

~~~
jenthoven
Damn, 3.5 million users?? Congratulations. That's a lot of lightning rods.

~~~
nikanj
That's a product-market-fit. Promotion will get you sign ups, but if there's
no demand for your product, no amount of lighting rods is going to save you.

------
keerthiko
My favorite analogy to describe "luck x startups" is that it's like your first
game of darts, except you only get 5 shots, and then you can never play again.
Theoretically it's skill-based, and if you had the time/resources to practice
you could perhaps nail the bullseye 85% of the time, but your first 5 throws
are mostly luck, and that's all most people ever get when it comes to
startups.

Also, even though you theoretically are better when throwing #5 (4 shots of
experience and learning), it's still random enough that you could score worse
than throw #1

------
nikanj
I've seen Kapwing on HN repeatedly, and I've been convinced they're very
successful. Still no idea what their product is, though.

It almost seems like a pre-planned acqui-hire play, where they build up a
reputation for the entrepreneurs, not the product itself.

~~~
justswim
I'm Eric, the other cofounder at Kapwing! Our product vision for now is an
online video editor (think iMovie in the browser).

We're definitely not a pre-planned acqui-hire play haha. We're completely
bootstrapped and just trying to build a website that can pay our bills and
make money so we don't have to go back to the corporate grind. We would love
to build a reputation for the product but it's hard and takes time. For now,
we just wanted to share about our startup experiences along the way!

The video editor itself might not be too relevant for the HN community but I
think our startup learning lessons definitely can be.

------
blunte
Takeaway: promote promote promote promote promote.

Seems like most of what they are doing is (self) promotion. Nothing wrong with
that; but I think we can distill their advice down to that.

~~~
yoz-y
It also does work, somewhat. I spend my evenings finding places where I can
promote my side project without being obnoxious.

------
whatyoucantsay
It's very easy for a highly credentialed person who has lived in the first
world of the first world for years before this startup.

These are becoming spammy.

~~~
justswim
Yeah definitely (I'm Eric, a co-founder at Kapwing). Julia and I have so many
advantages it's crazy. We are really lucky to start out with. I appreciate
your feedback and hope you know that we often think about how we can be more
cognisant and responsible with who we are.

------
forkLding
Mum ran a small successful chain of restaurants for 20 yrs, she pretty much
agrees, a lot of stuff happens, business isnt one way up or one way down as
most people believe but mix of sudden huge ups and downs over way too many
yrs.

However have to be very prepared, risk tolerant and actually have something
that stands out and attracts customers and you're either quarter or halfway
there.

Luck in business is more like societal movements, consequences and jerks that
catch people by surprise

------
rosege
This is a relevant speech by Michael Lewis posted on HN not too long ago
[https://youtu.be/CiQ_T5C3hIM](https://youtu.be/CiQ_T5C3hIM)

~~~
luxpir
Hmm... this isn't pure luck when you actually already move in circles that
involve Wall St. execs and can get to Princeton in the first place. There is a
base-level of 'good breeding' he could use to launch from.

------
goatherders
You need some luck to build a billion dollar business. You just need work
ethic and persistence to build a million dollar business. And I would suggest
that anyone who looks down their nose at the latter has never owner a million
dollar business.

~~~
enraged_camel
I think you need more than just work ethic and persistence to build even a
million dollar business. Those things help you with execution, but you also
need a decent idea that is valuable to others and also motivating and exciting
to you.

~~~
nikanj
For a million dollar business, just pick any existing million-dollar business,
and execute well. Consulting shop, restaurant, laundromat, etc. Billion-dollar
companies need brilliant ideas and new paradigms, million dollar ones work
very well with decades-old ideas.

------
unit91
It's amazing to me how many people think luck is a causal force.

~~~
pluma
Luck is a catalyst. A lot of success stories are really stories of people
getting extremely lucky if they're honest. But those stories wouldn't exist if
those people hadn't been in positions where they could have taken advantage of
those lucky circumstances or if they hadn't taken the right actions to do so.

