
Stockholm Won't Reach Herd Immunity in May, Sweden's Chief Epidemiologist Says - Xplor
https://www.npr.org/2020/05/25/861923548/stockholm-wont-reach-herd-immunity-in-may-sweden-s-chief-epidemiologist-says
======
DC-3
> With 39.26 deaths per 100,000, Sweden's mortality rate is not only higher
> than that of the U.S. (29.87 deaths per 100,000) but also exponentially
> higher than those of its neighbors Norway (4.42 per 100,000) and Finland
> (5.56 per 100,000)

Small thing, but the usage of 'exponentially' in this context, comparing
several discrete datums, really does bug me. If humanity's greatest weakness
really is our failure to understand the exponential function, then we don't
help ourselves by using the term as a clumsy proxy for 'substantially bigger'.

~~~
raziel2p
> If humanity's greatest weakness really is our failure to understand the
> exponential function

If this is in regards to dismissing coronavirus concerns, I don't think that
was the problem - more a case of people assuming the exponential growth would
be magically stopped earlier by some governmental force or whatever.

When the first case in the city I live in was announced, I remember thinking
to myself, it's just one case, they're now quarantined and they've _probably_
done proper contact tracing and the country is preventing people coming in
from infected regions abroad. I was perfectly aware how quick exponential
growth happens, but to some extent had faith that "the system" would prevent
it from going out of hand.

~~~
JoeAltmaier
Oh I never imagined it could be contained. It's not the 1950's where folks
lived and died within 2 miles of the spot they were born.

People travel promiscuously today. Even if only 1 in 100 did, it'd defeat
'containment'. And far more travel than that.

Heck we are more careful with pets and cattle, than with people. Because,
disease. People were somehow exempt because it's inconvenient to quarantine -
takes time. And now we're reaping the result of this.

~~~
SpicyLemonZest
If you thought it was inevitable as soon as a single case appeared in your
country, that just seems misinformed. SARS was contained.

~~~
JoeAltmaier
Nope. SARS burned out that summer. Became less virulent when conditions
changed.

A disease that was killing folks worldwide, cause zero deaths in the USA.
Despite spreading across half the country.

~~~
bryanlarsen
So you're saying that the doctors and nurses who sacrificed their lives
fighting SARS in Toronto and elsewhere did it in vain?

~~~
JoeAltmaier
No. They very well may have saved thousands, and god bless them. But nature
lent a hand as summer came on and it got to the USA.

~~~
bryanlarsen
Summer had very little to do with it, IMO. SARS spread almost exclusively in a
temperature controlled environment, hospitals. Hospitals around the world
learned their lessons from the mistakes made in Toronto, applied them
effectively, and stopped the disease.

~~~
JoeAltmaier
So, that sounds consistent. Outside, the disease quit spreading. Because it
was summer, and hot.

------
K0nserv
I'm Swedish but I live in Scotland and I've been watching the Swedish approach
to COVID with great interest. I remain fairly sceptical but I also thought
this interview[0] with Johan Giesecke who was the previous state
epidemiologist and is advising both WHO and the current state epidemiologist
interesting. In particular it seems like Sweden messed up the response in
elderly care which is something that everyone is admiting to.

I do think it's too early to say whether Sweden's approach is as bad as it
currently looks, likely this is not something that can be measured and
compared to other nations for years.

0:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY)

~~~
rob74
About "messing up the response in elderly care": I wonder what the strategy
was there - if you want to protect the elderly, you also have to limit the
freedom of movement of the employees that care for them and of the visitors,
otherwise one of them will inevitably bring the infection in. But even if you
do that, these persons can be infected by the people they live with - where do
you draw the line? So I don't think it's about messing up in elderly care,
it's more that the whole plan is unrealistic, it's just in elderly care that
it shows...

~~~
SpicyLemonZest
You can only accomplish so much, but many places didn't even do the basics. I
don't know what Sweden did specifically, but there are stories from many
countries of elder care homes being required to accept coronavirus patients.

------
truckster
I don't condem their approach on this situation, not having a lockdown. What I
don't aggree with is not making wearing a mask mandatory. At least this
should've been made a must for everyone

~~~
glofish
You may find this hard to believe that but there is very little evidence that
masks work for this particular disease,

The group think is strong with the masks - but in reality, the scientific
evidence is scant and inconclusive at best. This is why CDC never recommended
them in the first place.

There are a large number of people that put all their faith in masks, because
what else is there? They fervently hope and really want masks to work. And I
understand that I wish masks worked, but do they really? The scientific
evidence is just not there.

This post will be heavily downvoted for the same reason. It is a psychological
thing. When they put on the mask people feel like they are doing something.

People strongly believe that masks _HAVE TO WORK_ it just _MAKES SENSE THAT
THEY WORK_ , _HOW COULD MASKS NOT WORK?_ , in reality, the evidence is not
there. Masks feel to me like a superstition or flat earth belief. Where is the
evidence?

Questioning the efficiency of masks is heresy, you'll get banned from Youtube
or Facebook for questioning masks, but not for questioning vaccines or for
promoting vitamin C as a cure for cancer ...

Why is that? Because there is no evidence, if there were you'd be pointed to
that.

~~~
dmix
One of the best things about wearing a mask is I no longer touch my face.
Without something covering it I rarely noticed how often I would do it.

I’ve also noticed people are less inclined to take elevators with me and takes
wider berths when walking. Which are all wins as far as I’m concerned.

The fact it prevents a cough or sneeze from shooting 6ft is also a benefit.

~~~
glofish
Touching your face makes not difference at all. Just one of the nonsense
promoted by the scaremongers. COVID patients do not sneeze either.

Touching face maybe reduces hepatitis and other gastro-intestinal diseases.

The virus enters your nose via aerosols that will pass through masks just
fine.

~~~
ModernMech
“COVID patients do not sneeze either.“

COVID prevents people from sneezing? I would assume one would still sneeze
whether or not they have COVID.

~~~
glofish
it is not a symptom, treating everyone as a potential suspect is the exact
problem that dehumanizes people

you should not be wearing a mask just because there is 1/100,000 chance you
might be sick.

~~~
JoeAltmaier
Yes, you should, if it decreases the R0 factor to the point the disease dies
out. Kind of the whole ball game here.

------
librish
The one thing that can be said about lockdowns is that it's not some obvious
clear cut "it definitely helps a ton" type of thing. If that were true we
should see nations and US states with strict lockdowns do _much_ better than
those without.

Instead some places with more strict measures (say the UK and Belgium) are
doing worse than Sweden, and Sweden's curve is also flattening. The number of
confounding variables just seem too large to make anything close to definitive
statements about anything at the moment.

~~~
jvm_
[https://www.facebook.com/1515215380/posts/10222241141166862/...](https://www.facebook.com/1515215380/posts/10222241141166862/?d=w)

------
Systemic33
In Denmark, which took a different strategy similar to most countries, we
never quite had a full lock-down as seen in many other countries.

Majority of retail continued throughout the "lock-down", but with an abundance
of care taken in terms of keeping a 2m distance, limited number of customers
in a shop (queue stretching out of stores is a common sight), and alcohol
sanitizers everywhere.

The majority of businesses and institutions have reopened (schools and
kindergardens being the first ones), and restaurants, café and cinemas have
just recently opened (with appropriate restrictions).

What is interesting is that Sweden has seen the roughly the same level of
economic contraction as Denmark, despite the vastly different policies.

~~~
username90
Closing schools is an over reaction though. Denmark has significantly lower
life expectancy than Sweden and will have it this year as well. Why? Largely
alcohol and tobacco. Sure, Denmark having less alcohol and tobacco measures
than Sweden is great for your economy, but limiting them like Sweden does
would save way more lives and have way smaller effects on peoples lives than
your current Corona measures.

All of these articles pointing at Sweden as if it was a failure really has
didn't consider how minor effect it had in Sweden, I'd say that the other
Scandinavian countries over reacted instead. Maybe not Norway since they seem
to value life higher, but both Finland and Denmark will still have lower life
expectancy than Sweden and if they cared about life they would put resources
on other measures than Corona.

------
guscost
Sweden also has a larger immigrant population, many of whom have difficulty
synthesizing Vitamin D. This factor should not be ignored.

[https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200512134426.h...](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200512134426.htm)

[https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1101/rr-10](https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1101/rr-10)

> A risk factor that we want to highlight, however, is the low vitamin D
> levels found in the Swedish-Somali population. Vitamin D status is strongly
> related to low sun exposure and dark skin. In two different studies, the
> great majority of Swedish women of Somali origin had very low levels of
> S-25(OH)-D (< 25 nmol/l).[3,4] In Finland, Somali women required more than
> twice the amount of vitamin D in order to maintain recommended vitamin D
> status. [5] In addition, vitamin D deficiency was twice as common,
> regardless of gender, in immigrants from Africa compared with those from the
> Middle East.[6]

------
jahaja
The superficial bashing by foreign journalists of the Swedish strategy will
become a case-study in confirmation bias. It's remarkable how eager a large
variety of people are to justify their own policies by sloppy and superficial
conclusions like for example deaths per capita, like lockdown or not is the
only single variable that goes into that.

