
We Discovered Helium 150 Years Ago. Are We Running Out? - prostoalex
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2018/08/news-helium-mri-superconducting-markets-reserve-technology/
======
philipkglass
The atmospheric noble gas concentrations, in ppmv:

Helium 5.24

Neon 18.18

Krypton 1.14

Argon 9340

Xenon 0.087

[http://www.gly.uga.edu/railsback/Fundamentals/AtmosphereComp...](http://www.gly.uga.edu/railsback/Fundamentals/AtmosphereCompIII.pdf)

Krypton is rarer in the atmosphere than helium (by molar/volume
concentration), though more abundant by mass. Krypton is commercially produced
by atmospheric separation. I would therefore expect helium sourced by air
separation to cost _roughly_ 1/4-1/5 the cost of krypton production, per
liter, or 4-5 times as much per gram. A quick search on Google shows krypton
at 65 cents per liter in the early 2000s (according to an article about
windowpane gas filling). An Alibaba search indicates that 10-15 cents per
liter may be more typical now.

If those krypton prices are accurate, and I haven't made any major mistakes
with my helium ballparking, I would expect that applications like helium
filled hard drives would see only a tiny cost increase should they be forced
to use helium separated from the atmosphere. I think that most cryogenic
cooling applications would have to move to closed-cycle reuse of helium. I
don't know about welding and leak testing.

EDIT: "The Energy-Related Applications of Helium", 1980 report from Los Alamos
National Laboratory, specifically considers helium production from atmospheric
separation and from lean natural gas streams in section X.

[https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/5141581](https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/5141581)

 _A.W. Francis has discussed the recovery of helium from the atmosphere by
conventional methods. He predicts that, for helium produced from the
atmosphere as a by-product from air separation plants, the cost would lie in
the range of $200 to $300 per Mcf in 1973 dollars (over ten times present
cost).

...

To go further and separate helium by similar techniques but with helium as the
primary product would raise the cost by more than another order of magnitude
to about $7000 Mcf in 1980 dollars. _

Apparently one Mcf is 28,317 liters in SI units. That's 24.7 cents per liter
of helium from the atmosphere in 1980 dollars, or 80 cents per liter in CPI-
adjusted 2018 dollars.

~~~
criddell
Helium is so light, won't it rise to the top of the atmosphere? Wouldn't that
make it more difficult to extract from the atmosphere?

~~~
garmaine
It's not rising to the top of the atmosphere per se, but rather that atomic
helium is so light that at atmospheric temperature a significant percentage of
individual atoms are moving at Earth's escape velocity. Usually they bounce
into something else, but there's always some lucky few that make their way
through the upper atmosphere... and keep going.

That's why, for example, Saturn's atmosphere is 25% helium and 75% hydrogen,
but Saturn's moon Titan is basically all nitrogen-methane.

Which is also the real answer about helium. Hydrogen we have in near-infinite
supply by breaking chemical bonds (e.g. in water). Helium doesn't react with
anything, so so the small amount trapped in oil and natural gas deposits from
Earth's radioactivity over billions of years is all we have. After that...
we'd better start investing in outer solar system mining operations, skimming
the atmospheres of gas giants.

I, for one, look forward to a future working the gas mines.

~~~
DonHopkins
Why wait? Get started now!

[https://wiki.eveuniversity.org/Gas_cloud_harvesting](https://wiki.eveuniversity.org/Gas_cloud_harvesting)

------
egypturnash
I just get

Error reading 'isEmpty' on type
com.nationalgeographic.componentry.sling.model.promo.BetaRelatedContentListPromo

Cannot serve request to /content/science/en_US/2018/08/news-helium-mri-
superconducting-markets-reserve-technology.html on this server

Here's the latest Wayback Machine link for it:
[http://web.archive.org/web/20180820221804/https://www.nation...](http://web.archive.org/web/20180820221804/https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2018/08/news-
helium-mri-superconducting-markets-reserve-technology/)

~~~
morganvachon
I got that too, reloaded a few minutes later and it was fine.

------
nradov
As a scuba diver I often use >2000 liters of helium on a single open circuit
deep dive. I feel kind of bad about wasting a (mostly) non-renewable resource
but with rebreathers still being expensive and dangerous there isn't any good
alternative.

~~~
benzofuran
You’re doing high percentage trimix deco dives and still see rebreathers as
dangerous?

~~~
nradov
Yes there's a lot more that can go wrong with rebreathers. Open circuit is
much more forgiving. As long as you can breathe you can stay alive. No single
mistake will kill you and there are multiple opportunities to fix any problem.
Whereas with a closed circuit rebreather there are failure modes which are
essentially "silent" (or at least easy to overlook in a stressful situation)
that can kill you quickly. Most rebreather deaths involve some sort of diver
error, but I don't trust myself to be perfect every time.

~~~
benzofuran
I’d recommend giving them a shot - I honestly feel way better after rebreather
deco than OC. Portable gas blending is awesome.

If you’re using a rebreather properly and have sufficient bailout, they’re
pretty reliable these days. You can switch to OC for sanity breaths if you see
an issue and use the draeger ball-gag mouthpiece if you’re concerned about O2
hits.

------
woliveirajr
Sometimes this discussion arises, and as I remember it, there are two kind of
"Helium" that should be discussed.

The first case is the common helium, used to fill up baloons and so on. It is
mixed with many others gases, it is common, the price is very low, and despite
being used to many things, it isn't running out, supplies aren't getting
empty.

The second case is the "helium" as a pure gas, composed by helium and nothing
else (except for traces of other gases). This is rare, this is expansive, this
is hard to get (and it costs a lot to extract pure helium from the
atmosphere). This is the helium that we are "running out", despite being able
to extract it from sources, as the price might and will increase.

~~~
nradov
No there's really only one kind of helium, with varying levels of purity. Even
balloon helium is usually almost 100% pure. Helium is never extracted from the
air; there isn't enough of it there to be practical. We get it as a byproduct
of natural gas extraction.

~~~
ars
> Even balloon helium is usually almost 100% pure

Are you sure? I ask, because latex helium filled balloons slowly lose air as
the helium leaks out - but after some time they stop, and stay a fixed size.

But they don't float when they reach that point!

If it were pure helium, wouldn't a: all the helium leak out, and b: still
float if for whatever reason the helium did not leak?

Personally I suspect helium balloons have just enough helium to float when
full and the rest is regular air.

~~~
Kadin
Latex balloons deflate due to helium permeating the latex. IIRC this is
proportional to the difference in pressure between the inside and outside of
the balloon. (Because the rate is proportional to the difference in pressure.)

The balloon isn't going to deflate completely; eventually the pressure on the
inside and outside will equilibrate. The balloon doesn't return to its
original pre-inflated size because, I suspect, of some amount of irreversible
deformation of the rubber as it stretches when inflated.

But anyway, balloon helium is quite pure, it's typically "Class 4" or "four
nines" so 99.99% pure. At the local gas supply place, balloon grade and the
stuff used for welding shielding gas are the same thing. While a lower purity
might be fine for balloons, it presumably isn't worth it to them to either
dilute it with cheaper gas or maintain separate product lines.

~~~
dreamcompiler
Welder here. I don't buy helium for welding any more because it's too
expensive; most welders use argon nowadays. But in any case the whole point of
using inert gases in welding is to keep oxygen away from the hot metal. If
welding-grade helium tanks contained any significant amount of oxygen they
would defeat the whole purpose. And yes, for filling balloons, you just buy a
tank of welding helium and screw a special balloon regulator onto the outlet
port. The gas is identical. Makes you talk in a squeaky-high voice if you
breathe a little of it; kills you dead if you breathe a lot of it.

(Edit: I know somebody is going to ask why it kills you. Helium is not toxic,
but it suffocates you if you breathe a lot of it without a break for -- you
know -- real air.)

~~~
somebodythere
And it doesn't trigger the asphyxiation reflex that inhaling carbon dioxide
does.

------
siruncledrew
If helium is “running out” then shouldn’t we have some sort of embargo on
wasted helium uses like balloons? Or are consumer product uses of helium not a
significant dent in the supply?

~~~
savanaly
Can we not let the market sort it out? If we don't interfere in the free trade
of helium and plausibly commit to never do so, the current price will always
be the best estimate of the future price that we have, discounted by the
expected interest rate. And thus _if_ we are going to be running out _and_
that is going to cause a shortage, the price will go up now and incentivize
conservation.

~~~
js8
Markets cannot incentivize conservation. They are designed to maximally use
all available resources. In most cases it's a good thing, but in few cases it
is catastrophic. (Think about it - the more is the resource being conserved,
the more relatively abundant it becomes, and the cheaper it becomes in the
market. The conservation of resource can only be done if it's use and
extraction is punished, and free market only gives positive incentives.)

(That's why the markets cannot solve global warming for example, and that's
why free market fundamentalists are often unable to believe that global
warming is happening.)

~~~
whatshisface
> _Markets cannot incentivize conservation._

This is not true. If you and I believe that the scarcity of a resource will
rise tomorrow, we will try to buy it today so that we can sell it for a higher
price after it becomes harder to get. All resource speculation (and boy, there
is a lot,) is market-incentivised conservation.

~~~
shadofx
Some of our medical machines were invented under the assumption that Helium
would be dirt cheap. Once the price of helium rises those machines will become
absurdly expensive to operate, and people will start dying of treatable
diseases. Not your stated problem, but still a thing to keep in mind.

~~~
ISL
As the price rises, helium recapture and liquefaction will become more common.
As recapture and liquefaction becomes more common, the price of the necessary
equipment will tend to drop.

There is an experiment in our lab (ADMX, an axion search) for which it is
already financially more expedient to re-liquify.

In addition, new cooling technology is becoming more prevalent. Closed-cycle
pulse-tube cryocoolers are becoming common throughout physics.

------
lend000
I was unable to find the actual breakdown of helium consumption by
application, but I assume party balloons are pretty high on the list. Most of
the other commercial uses (such as in medicine, welding, diving, etc.) tend to
use smaller amounts of helium and do not lose the helium after one usage. This
seems like a great example of something where market prices will sort make
helium balloons obsolete before helium starts to become too cost prohibitive
for its more 'important' uses.

~~~
jandrese
I think it is the opposite. Party balloons are a relatively small consumer of
helium.

[https://geology.com/articles/helium/uses-of-
helium.gif](https://geology.com/articles/helium/uses-of-helium.gif)

It is lumped into the "other" category on this chart.

One of the problems is that our helium supply comes as a byproduct of the oil
and gas industry so as we switch to renewable energy sources the yearly supply
will diminish even as demand increases.

So party balloons may become unaffordable but that won't affect the total
demand very much. Or maybe we'll have far more exciting party balloons filled
with hydrogen gas instead.

~~~
hx2a
> far more exciting party balloons filled with hydrogen gas instead.

Far more exciting, of course, because the balloons will explode. My kind of
party!

~~~
saagarjha
Only if you bring them near a flame.

~~~
davidgay
Birthday party. Candles.

------
scythe
I thought we recently discovered a huge amount of helium in East Africa:

[https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/jun/28/huge-
helium-...](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/jun/28/huge-helium-gas-
tanzania-east-africa-averts-medical-shortage)

------
cm2187
Another interesting market is the isotope helium 3 [1], which has various
medical applications, and which only industrial source is the natural decay of
radioactive material in nuclear weapons, which need to be "purged" regularly
to collect the helium.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helium-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helium-3)

------
war1025
An interesting thing I learned a few years ago, don't remember where exactly,
is that when people say things like, "We only have x years of material y
left", what they are actually saying is that the known sources of that
material will last for the next `y` years.

There is almost always another way to get the raw materials, it just doesn't
currently make sense to look for them because there are existing sources that
are already available and meeting demand.

~~~
adrianN
We know how to make Helium using fusion, so we'll never "run out". However
we'll definitely run out of Helium that is cheap enough to fill your hard disk
with.

------
ww520
Could the helium shortage spurt a race to mining on the Moon?

~~~
ben_w
Unlikely. Even if it was easy and convenient to mine and transport as
moonrocks (it isn’t) the helium would have to be more expensive than gold to
be worth the cost.

------
akshayB
Naturally Helium is produced due to radio active decay of radio active
elements but all nuclear reactors also produce Helium as a by product which
can be captured (worse case most expensive scenario). I am also bit confused
by the fact that Helium is so cheap and easy to buy, why haven't the price sky
rocketed yet. You easily order a decent size tank of Helium for $50 online.

~~~
mchannon
Haven't been able to verify your claim "all nuclear reactors also produce
Helium as a by product". While Helium manufacture is a given for about all
forms of fusion (if fusion ever takes off we'll barely be able to supply our
party balloon demand since there's so little material needed for fusion).

Fission (as one would find in a nuclear power reactor) does not appear to
generate helium. Cesium-137 and Strontium-90 appear to be the major products,
the former eventually turning into Barium-137 (no alpha decay), and the latter
eventually to Zirconium-90 (no alpha decay).

~~~
yorwba
Poking around on Wikipedia, it appears that fission and its byproducts indeed
do not generate alpha particles, but the enriched uranium and plutonium also
undergo alpha decay, so simply collecting lots of fissile material in one
place should produce a noticeable amount of helium.

~~~
dfggdfsfsdfs
That's how He is made < natural decay of alpha emitters getting trapped in NG
wells.

It works on a geological scale, but not in industrial scales < the decay rate
is too low.

------
patient_zero
one of the links in the article leads to congress's passing of the helium
privatization act of 1996. could the fragility if the helium markets be a self
inflicted wound?

------
WindowsFon4life
...They say in high pitched voice.

------
coldtea
Well, concern about Helium consumption has reached a high pitch.

------
GW150914
This story seems to resurface every few months, and the answer to the question
of whether or not we’re running out of the second most common element in the
known universe is still “No.” It is true that most helium is the byproduct of
natural gas production, and demand for Helium is rising while (hopefully)
demand for fossil fuels will dwindle. It is also true that Helium may become
more expensive if we keep wasting it on party balloons. That is not the same
as “running out” however, and we’re not running out of it.

Maybe someday the media can honestly reflect reality in this case with a
headline that talks about being less wasteful of a valuable resource so that
it doesn’t become painfully expensive, rather than framing in terms of actual
scarcity on Earth. It’s also one of those areas where the market can probably
handle this because few people will be willing to pay big bucks for a single
party balloon. Given that balloons are harmful to the environment to begin
with, letting that tradition naturally die off seems like a win-win.

Edit: As another poster has pointed out, natural gas subsidies are a problem,
which artificially depress the price of Helium. That is still not “running
out” though.

~~~
noonespecial
>Helium may become more expensive if we keep wasting it on party balloons.

Not to nitpick, but only a tiny fraction of all helium use is "wasted on party
balloons". Most is used for cryo-cooling applications. Heck, we use more
helium by far scuba-diving than on party balloons.

~~~
GW150914
All helium that goes into a balloon is wasted, never to be recovered. In
scientific applications it is typically recycled. I don’t know about SCUBA,
but I’d venture to say that it’s a necessity for deep dives whereas in a
balloon it’s a novelty.

