

Freakonomics: Read this if you believe in Peak Oil - cwan
http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/read-this-if-you-believe-in-peak-oil/
related link: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/opinion/25lynch.html?_r=1
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gaius
There are only two possibilities here:

1\. The more oil we extract, the less oil is left in the ground

2\. The oil supply is infinite

I know which my money's on...

~~~
cwan
I'd amend #2 to say that the supply of oil is effectively infinite as a result
of substitutes. We will never extract the last drop of oil because it will be
too expensive to do - and as it gets more expensive, the incentives for
alternatives rises (as has been the case for every form of historical fuel
source - it's probably a good thing for us and whales that we don't depend on
whale blubber for light anymore).

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projectileboy
I agree, but that doesn't really refute the possible gloom-and-doom scenarios
proffered by the Peak Oil crowd. Whether or not we slowly wean off oil or
experience a chaotic shift depends on the particulars of just how expensive it
becomes to extract more oil over time, and how much global demand rises. I
believe in the power of the market as much as anyone, but it's not a given
that the market will find a cheap, easy alternative to fossil fuels within the
timeframe that we may need them.

~~~
cwan
We already have (though it is a fossil fuel) - natural gas
([http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/08/the_grand_energ.ht...](http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/08/the_grand_energ.html))
- the equivalent of between 80-120 years of equivalent oil consumption (if we
switched everything including consumer vehicles over). Conversion of existing
vehicles while not cheap, is still viable and not difficult.

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bengebre
This is so familiar. Smart economists tell us that something which seems so
unsustainable is in fact sustainable. Remember when we heard that home prices
had never declined on a year over year basis and that the extreme price
appreciation from 2000-2005 was somehow rational? This argument feels exactly
the same.

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pradocchia
I was hoping to find an intelligent rebuttal of Peak Oil, but it reads more
like a hatchet job than anything else.

