
House passes bill to hike the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour - valinsky
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/18/house-passes-raise-the-wage-act-15-per-hour-minimum-wage-bill.html
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harryh
It's important to note that there is a ~0% chance that this will pass the
Senate or that the current President would sign it.

This is best discussed as politics and not policy.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Correct. It will apply substantial political pressure on Mitch McConnell, as
everyone who would see a benefit (anyone making under $15/hr) is unable to if
he won't bring it up for a vote.

~~~
marcusverus
It will apply zero political pressure to Mitch McConnel.

Even if Dems had the Senate, the would still face a presidential veto.

This isn’t an issue of one man preventing a change. Dems only control 1 of the
3 institutions required to pass this law.

~~~
toomuchtodo
He’s running for re-election in 2020. Amy McGrath [1], the democratic
challenger, is polling within two percentage points of him. There are more
lower income voters than wealthy conservatives in Kentucky.

Of course nothing will happen today, it’s for campaigning.

[1] [https://twitter.com/AmyMcGrathKY](https://twitter.com/AmyMcGrathKY)

~~~
harryh
That's much closer than I would have guessed. What poll is this?

~~~
toomuchtodo
Was just referenced in a Ditch Mitch PAC marketing email that went out an hour
ago. I've contacted their team to ask for a citation and will report back with
it when I receive it.

EDIT @ 1563753486: [http://kentuckytoday.com/stories/mcgrath-comes-out-firing-
in...](http://kentuckytoday.com/stories/mcgrath-comes-out-firing-in-battle-
for-mcconnells-seat,20426)

“Change Research conducted a poll of 1,629 likely 2020 voters in Kentucky from
June 15-16 and found that retired Marine Amy McGrath is already essentially
tied with Senator Mitch McConnell in a hypothetical 2020 general election
Senate matchup, despite half of Kentucky voters not even having an opinion of
her yet. If the election were held today, 47% would vote for McConnell
compared to 45% for McGrath, a deficit well within the margin of error.

Ayoub added, “Senator McConnell is extremely unpopular in Kentucky, with 22%
viewing him favorably and 61% viewing him unfavorably. Even among Republicans,
roughly as many view him favorably (40%) as unfavorably (39%). This stands in
stark contrast to other prominent Republicans like President Trump, who is
overall well-liked in Kentucky (58% favorable, 40% unfavorable) and nearly
universally beloved among Republicans (92% favorable, 4% unfavorable)."

~~~
tptacek
McConnell was approximately as unpopular in Kentucky leading into the 2014
election, when he trounced Alison Lundergan Grimes (KY's Secretary of State)
by 16 points.

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luxuryballs
Effectively banning/exporting any jobs that aren’t productive enough to be
worth paying as much. Price fixing always creates shortages and is an
inefficient way of allocating resources. Less people will be hired, businesses
will go under. Stupid idea and should be a constitutional violation, you
should have the right to work for whatever wage you want.

~~~
Liron
Right, plus there are plenty of Americans who want to work for say $13/hr if
the job is a rewarding one. The current federal minimum wage of $7.25 is
arguably low enough to raise somewhat because why not, but $15/hr is clearly
high relative to the current supply/demand equilibrium.

~~~
syshum
It seems market forces are already working to do that with out the need for
government intervention.

Many Companies (walmart, Amazon, Target, etc) have all raised their companies
minimum starting wage to well above the federal minimum, some even to $15

This is correct way for wages to raise, not by government demand

~~~
londons_explore
I suspect those companies have raised their minimum wages not because of the
local labor market, but instead because of nationwide PR risks.

That is just as bad as a law really. The companies will end up employing fewer
people at higher wages, while other people end up unemployed, and the total
nationwide labor salary gets reduced.

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joey_bob
How might a $15 minimum wage might affect the current (engineering) internship
system? Almost every non-software engineer I know earned $15, or marginally
more, during undergraduate for internships related to their field. If minimum
wage jobs are price-competitive with an internship, what is the impact? Will
large employers of engineers raise internship pay? Will they continue to hire
as many interns?

~~~
NotSammyHagar
$15/hour would be unlikely to have any impact on engineering internship wages,
it's far too low. $15/hr is $31k per annum. 20 years ago we paid interns a pro
rated wage higher than that! Today we pay our interns a pro-rated wage over
80k at the startup where I work. Are there any engineering interns paid such
low wages in the western world? Double or trip $15 and you might have some
impact.

~~~
cr1895
>Are there any engineering interns paid such low wages in the western world?

Yes, absolutely: your experience is certainly not everyone's.

The 80k salary for an intern sounds nuts to me...in the Netherlands, interns
in my engineering field usually make less than minimum wage. Usually it's a
few hundred euros per month.

Most full-time, experienced engineers in the entire country earn a whole lot
less than $80k.

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crb002
Counterpoint those making $10 an hour are on Medicaid and employers are
freeloaders. Help if Medicaid had a 5% wage garnishment and all could be on
it; just those making $$$ would scoff and take lower cost private insurance.

~~~
crb002
IMHO this would be in alignment with SCOTUS ruling that the US Affordable Care
Act mandate is a tax.

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Jolter
So how much of today's dollar is $15 going to be worth in 2025?

I mean, I think it's great, but it should have been sooner and/or more.

~~~
NamTaf
Assuming 3% inflation per year, it'll be $15/1.03^6 (6 years), or about $12.56
in today's dollars.

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exabrial
I'm starting to miss the days when people are buying votes with their own
money instead of other people's money. /s

I hope Congress also doubles all pour savings as well, because the purchasing
power of those is about to be diminished.

~~~
rayiner
The purchasing power angle makes no sense. Purchasing power will only be
diminished if you increase the total money supply. Minimum wage won’t do that.

~~~
rjf72
Bloomberg ran a nice piece on what it's like to own a McDonald's franchise
here [1]. The raw numbers sound nice - $2.7 million gross, $1.8 million in
gross profit. But after your various expenses come into play, the honeymoon
ends - you end up taking home about $150k for a mountain of work that's
required to keep a franchise running in good shape. You're buying a job.

The reason this matters is because those numbers are is pretty representative
of many regular businesses; well outside 'our' world of VC driven mutual
lotteries. You're taking home $150k yourself, but you're paying $540k in crew
(non-managerial) payroll. And many of these guys are at or near minimum wage.
Increase their wages just 30% (and going from $7.25 to $15 is a > 100%
increase) would cost you $162k. And now you're losing money. And McDonalds are
pretty primo in terms of profit. Life's often much harder for for the
countless no-name businesses out there.

It's the really counter intuitive nature of business. A company can make
millions, yet have owner(s) that are, out of necessity, living relatively
modestly. So imagine your labor costs skyrocket. What do you do? You really
don't have any options. You increase prices or you go out of business.

This seems likely to have a paradoxical effect. It means company with large
profit margins are fine, but you squeeze the very low profit margin companies.
And the low profit margins companies tend to have low profit margins because
they're providing products at extremely cost to cost. E.g. company selling $50
steaks = no problem. Company selling $1 tacos = problem. So the very
businesses who are doing to their most to cater to lower income people end up
being the most negatively affected. Of course now their customers can afford
to pay more, but that's precisely the definition of a reduction in a
purchasing power per dollar.

[1] - [https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-mcdonalds-
franchises...](https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-mcdonalds-franchises/)

~~~
rightbyte
If the minimum wage increased fast food joints would, as you note, just have
to raise their prices. There is McDonalds in Norway and Switzerland too.

I find it quite disturbing that McDonalds prices are about the same in SF as
else where. There is no way that is working out for the employees. If people
want to live there they would have to be prepared to pay not just for their
own housing ...

Of course, some businesses would not be profitable at raised prices.

~~~
gwright
> Of course, some businesses would not be profitable at raised prices.

It is hard to tell from your comment, but you see that as a problem, right?

I agree that _some people_ will benefit from an increased federal minimum
wage, but I don't understand how the negative aspects can be dismissed:

    
    
        * some people will be unemployable at $15/hour
        * some business models will be unworkable at $15/hour
        * some people will lose jobs as headcount is reduced
        * some people will lose jobs as businesses fail
        * some businesses will be less profitable
        * $15/hour ignores geographic cost of living differences
        * consumers will pay more for good/services
    

In a free market, all these competing problems are resolved through millions
of independent decisions by business owners, employees, and consumers for
their particular situation. The idea that a bunch of politicians have
magically come upon a single hourly wage that is optimal for all these
situations is just non-sensical to me.

~~~
rightbyte
Ye, it's a problem if businesses fail. For both the owners and the formerly
employed employees. And I think the concerns you present are valid.

Where I live now (Denmark) there are not even any minimum wage. So having one
is probably not really important. Any large coorparation that would pay "too
low" would be blocked by unions. Small companies can pay whatever.

In practice a minimum wage is like a really crappy government worker union.
It's some protection against usary but the worst usary is not legal businesses
anyway.

