
Latin America is set to become a leader in alternative energy - oska
http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21711307-power-andean-sun-latin-america-set-become-leader-alternative-energy?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/latinamericaissettobecomealeaderinalternativeenergy
======
m_mueller
FWIW I made a map this year about Non Fossil electricity usage around the
world and the results are quite surprising actually, supporting the article
for the most part. Btw. this was surprisingly quick to do with google
spreadsheets.

[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16K4gNhy_AN8Eg4Ov3z7p...](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16K4gNhy_AN8Eg4Ov3z7pF_dgON1oObkHQ8Px5I73Hvc/pubhtml#)

~~~
patall
You can stand to it as you wish but by which means is nuclear power a
renewable? (See France with 91%+ renewable with mostly nuclear power)

Edit: Or non-fossil, if that is a difference

~~~
m_mueller
After your edit, does your question really make sense to you still? Of course
nuclear is non fossil?

And yes, whether we go full renewable or a mix of nuclear and renewable is IMO
a second order question, the main focus should be carbon neutral to negative
economy ASAP.

~~~
patall
Well, only if you are pedantic with fossil meaning long dead organic (which is
true, of course). But for energy it makes more sense to distinguish between
sources that can be used or they are gone (sun shines on the planet and at
some point the heat dissipates back into the universe) and those that are gone
at some point because we have used them. So, yeah, point taken, but then I do
not think it makes much sense to distinguish between fossil and non-fossil for
the point you want make here, which is dependence on a time-limited resource.

~~~
m_mueller
I disagree on your last point. By far our biggest problem right now is to keep
the climate stable enough. Earth's carbon absorption rate is the most critical
resource we have, not the amount of non renewable energy resources that are
left. The first problem we have to solve within 1-20 years max., the second is
more like 100-500 years (Uranium/Thorium/Plutonium/Fossil Fuel that's
available).

------
TheAceOfHearts
Calling it "alternative energy" always strikes me as a bit silly. It's an
alternative source, the energy stays the same.

From my limited research into energy sources, both solar and wind seem like
good short-term goals. The fundamental problems with both seems to be that
it's not viable in many locations and it's not steady or predictable. With the
space craze that has started developing in the last few years, I'm hopeful
people will open up more to the idea of nuclear power. Nuclear is our only
path to the stars!

The article left me with more questions than answers. How do they define being
a "leader in alternative energy", and why is it important? They don't provide
enough evidence to prove this is the case. How do their efforts compare to
other countries around the world? What effects would we expect this have on
the host country? e.g. improved economy, quality of life, etc.?

~~~
pjc50
Nuclear is too slow and too expensive. Even once you get past the permitting
objections, it takes a long time to build the plants. And building nuclear
plants in countries that don't currently have any is extremely problematic
because of the arms proliferation question. I suspect that's a big factor in
South America.

I don't really see what nuclear has to do with space. Our short-to-medium term
life is a question of keeping Earth safe, both politically and
environmentally. While the energy costs of rockets are individually huge
they're still not a significant percentage of our global energy consumption.

The uplands of Chile, Peru, Bolivia etc are particularly suitable for solar,
entirely viable and cloudless for most of the year. I've been to the
altiplano: this
[https://www.flickr.com/photos/136766297@N06/21300817773/in/a...](https://www.flickr.com/photos/136766297@N06/21300817773/in/album-72157657104598053/)
is a short drive from La Paz, 4000m above sea level and 16 degrees south of
the equator. Ideal landscape for solar farming.

Edit: just remembered, while I was there I saw the floating islands of Lake
Titicaca, which is an incredible way for people to live; a sort of houseboat
built of reeds. The only modern convenience was a TV ... powered from a solar
panel and car battery.

Solar hot water is also already ubiquitous at that latitude - all you have to
do is put a black barrel on your roof.

~~~
adwn
> _While the energy costs of rockets are individually huge they 're still not
> a significant percentage of our global energy consumption._

The limiting factor for chemical rocket propulsion is not the total energy
consumed, but the specific impulse (the "mileage", i.e., efficiency). This is
because rockets have to carry and accelerate all their fuel with them, leading
to the size of the rocket growing exponentially with the speed you want to
reach. For nuclear propulsion, it's still exponential, but the exponent is
much smaller.

Furthermore, electricity generation using solar panels quickly becomes
infeasible with growing distance from the sun.

------
bgammon
While riding in an Uber through Washington DC, my dad and I had a chat with
the driver about his plans to build two solar installations in the US.

He also mentioned the likelihood that their company would soon enter Latin
America, where higher electricity rates for consumers would allow them to make
more money for selling the same amount of electricity compared to the US. He
said this was the main angle he was using to attract investors.

~~~
iamskeptic
I'd be curious to understand how driving a Uber fits into that strategy.

~~~
pavlov
Maybe driving a Uber in Washington DC lets you meet some interesting/useful
people?

------
m_mueller
Right now I'm most worried about two places when it comes to carbon footprint:
US and India. The US is very worrysome now, India in a decade or two. China is
worrysome as well, but at least there you can see progress being made on a
national scale, which can't really be said yet about the US, and with a Trump
administration I'm afraid that even commercial attempts could be spoiled again
with an artificially propped up fossil fuel economy. If that happens it's
borderline suicidal really.

~~~
thewhitetulip
Just a few days back India installed a huge solar electricity generation
project in Tamil Nadu, we have a working smart grid in place like Latur, in
the next 2-3 years there is a mandate that all railway platforms shall use
solar energy. I think India is taking solar energy seriously. Upto this limit
that Indian PM and transport min went to meet Musk about starting Tesla
manufacturing in India for Asian markets!

~~~
m_mueller
I wasn't aware of this, thank you for the heads up. India is critical -
hundreds of millions of soon-to-become energy consumers, it's imperative that
gas/coal gets trumped by alternative thats both carbon neutral and cheaper.

If India gets this right the next bigger problem will be Indonesia -
unfortunately with a much more worrisome government.

~~~
thewhitetulip
Yes, even I was unaware of this, it was after meeting a lady who lived in
Latur that I realized that we have a smart grid working. They have to install
solar panels, use electricity and if excess is generated they can sell it to
the grid

although, I will say, not a lot of people are using it because of the cost.
Money and cost are interpreted in a funny way in India, you ignore it when you
do what you like and tend to think too highly of it when you do something you
don't want to do.

For instance, a typical Indian lady would go xx km to get a short discount on
clothing, they'll spend more $ on fuel as compared to the savings they'll get
due the the discount, but that's fine. When it comes to installing solar,
which will pay itself out within a few years, "no, it costs a lot of $$". It
is here that we face deadlock, unless everyone else does it, we don't do it.

One positive highlight I'd like to do is that most of India uses solar water
heater, at least we have that. Plus with Tesla, I hope we get to a point where
solar panels are cheap, and we can store a lot of electricity and not require
special cabling for the solar electricity, everything should be a drop in
replacement, plus, solar panel prices are said to drop steeply.

We are living in interesting times!

------
alexpoulsen
The most important part of this article was a mention of connecting national
grids. If we had a global grid, the section of earth with enough sunlight
could power the rest of the world. And hence no need for non-renewable energy.

~~~
hrxn
Well, transmitting all this energy is not that trivial, that's the point..

------
greglindahl
This is an interesting setup -- because the example solar plant is in Chile,
which has a LOT of hydropower, they can plug in a lot of wind and solar
without having to worry as much about storage.

~~~
llekn
Well, is not as simple as it seems.

Indeed, here in Chile we have a lot of hydropower, but the overwhelming
majority of it is located on the center and south of the country (where most
of the population lives), while the big solar projects are located on the
north (where most of the mining activity happens).

Being such a long country this means that there are big distances between
hydropower and solar plants (1500+kms) rendering inefficient to make use of
combined energy sources due to energy loss on the transmission lines and the
cost of building these transmission lines.

In fact, the power grids of the north (SING) and the power grids on the
south/center (SIC) are not yet connected [0], causing a huge excess of energy
on the north system due to the recent addition of solar plants. The excess of
energy is being sold to Argentina [1] instead of being used on the south,
making me wonder what interesting things we should be doing with this
excess... (mining bitcoins, datacenters, etc).

[0] [http://www.nuevamineria.com/revista/se-nos-viene-la-
intercon...](http://www.nuevamineria.com/revista/se-nos-viene-la-
interconexion-sic-sing/) [1] [http://fen.uahurtado.cl/2016/noticias/quien-lo-
diria-chile-e...](http://fen.uahurtado.cl/2016/noticias/quien-lo-diria-chile-
exporta-energia-electrica-y-gas-a-argentina/)

------
partycoder
When you sell energy, you have a share of everyone's money, because energy is
needed for everything.

Solar energy will take a lot of that advantage away and that should create an
overall better world.

~~~
devoply
Though I think the world is going to be a better place. We're headed for a
very difficult political reality in my lifetime. We have a whole lot of
challenges coming up, and our leaders don't know what to do about them.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Luckily, on our current trajectory, its not as bad as you'd think. Even
without additional political support, clean energy can finally stand on its
own.

TL;DR The question is no longer if we'll make it, just when.

* Solar and wind are stupid cheap now, and getting cheaper, fast. In over 25 states, rooftop solar is a better investment than the S&P500. [1] You're seeing Power Purchase Agreements under 3 cents/KwH. [2] Solar will only get cheaper. Wind is still being built like crazy in Texas and the central Midwestern US. Some utilities even offer power for free at night wind power is so plentiful (and transmission capability lacking). [3] Tesla/SolarCity has already moved into Florida now that the utility-sponsored Amendment 1 failed. (Which was an underhanded utility attempt to hinder rooftop solar deployment)

* Utility scale battery storage has arrived. Again, its only going to get cheaper (Tesla's Gigafactory is a big deal, but lots of other players in the market as well) [4] [5] [6]. Tesla has already installed a microgrid on an island in the Pacific that satisfies all of the island's power needs, removing the need for their diesel generators to produce island power.

* Tesla will deliver its Model 3 in the next 12-18 months. I have no doubt Elon will drive Tesla into scaling up to 1 million vehicles/year in production (relying primarily on their recent German manufacturing automation acquisition) [7]. While I would like to see Nissan and GM make EVs that aren't purely compliance cars (Bolt? Pleasssssse), I think they're good enough for urban dwellers or car share networks where you're sticking to major metros. (Full disclosure: TSLA investor)

* OPEC has finally agreed (after 8 years) to reduce supply to push oil prices back up. Even with US shale coming back online at those profitable market prices ($60-80+/barrel) and some of OPEC cheating on those cuts (who wants to reduce their revenue artificially?), that only does one thing: accelerates the transition to EVs. [8]

* Repealing the Clean Power Plan will not be able to stop the phase out of coal power due to cheap natural gas. Market forces at work. [9]

* Federal electric vehicle subsides will phase out within the next 2 years for all manufacturers due to hitting the sales quotas dictated by the statute's phaseout provisions [10]. No point in trying to remove them.

* Solar and wind ITC tax credit extensions (to 2021) agreed to by Congress were bipartisan. In exchange, restrictions were removed on the export of crude oil from the US. This agreement will not be unwound.

[1] [https://solarpowerrocks.com/infographics/solar-
infographic-s...](https://solarpowerrocks.com/infographics/solar-infographic-
state-solar-investment-returns/)

[2] [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-03/solar-
dev...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-03/solar-developers-
undercut-coal-with-another-record-set-in-dubai)

[3] [http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/09/business/energy-
environmen...](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/09/business/energy-
environment/a-texas-utility-offers-a-nighttime-special-free-
electricity.html?_r=0)

[4] [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-15/tesla-
win...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-15/tesla-wins-utility-
contract-to-supply-grid-scale-battery-storage-after-porter-ranch-gas-leak)

[5] [https://electrek.co/2016/10/25/tesla-powerpack-first-grid-
sc...](https://electrek.co/2016/10/25/tesla-powerpack-first-grid-scale-
powerpack-installation-asia-pacific/)

[6] [https://electrek.co/2016/11/22/tesla-island-microgrid-
batter...](https://electrek.co/2016/11/22/tesla-island-microgrid-battery-
solar/)

[7] [https://electrek.co/2016/11/08/tesla-acquires-german-
enginee...](https://electrek.co/2016/11/08/tesla-acquires-german-engineering-
firm-create-tesla-advanced-automation-germany/)

[8] [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-30/opec-
said...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-30/opec-said-to-
agree-oil-production-cuts-as-saudis-soften-on-iran)

[9] [http://www.utilitydive.com/news/tva-ceo-clean-power-plan-
com...](http://www.utilitydive.com/news/tva-ceo-clean-power-plan-compliance-
natural-gas-part-of-future-strategy/431143/)

[10] [https://cleantechnica.com/2016/04/19/how-the-ev-tax-
credit-w...](https://cleantechnica.com/2016/04/19/how-the-ev-tax-credit-works-
tesla-model-3/)

~~~
melling
Solar is less than 1% of electricity:

[https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3](https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3)

Current projections have the United States at 10% solar power by 2025:

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_the_United_St...](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_the_United_States)

"A report finds that solar power's contribution could grow to 10% of the
nation's power needs by 2025:"

I don't think that's enough clean energy to make a sufficient difference.

My feeling is that if we were on a good trajectory, Bill Gates and friends
wouldn't be looking to create a huge fund for more research:

[http://qz.com/859860/bill-gates-is-leading-a-
new-1-billion-f...](http://qz.com/859860/bill-gates-is-leading-a-
new-1-billion-fund-focused-on-combatting-climate-change-through-
innovation/?linkId=32225791)

Being discussed here:

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13155146](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13155146)

~~~
toomuchtodo
93% of new generation capacity coming online each month is from renewables,
according to the EIAs "Electric Power Monthly" and "Electricity Monthly
Update" reports.

[http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/#tabs_unit-4](http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/#tabs_unit-4)

[http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/](http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/)

~~~
melling
I think you're reading it wrong:

[http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm...](http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_es1b)

Natural gas: 1,087,236 1,011,464 7.5%

Solar: 28,058 19,684 42.5%

A lot more natural gas came online than solar. The solar percentage is so high
because it's an increase over a much smaller number.

~~~
toomuchtodo
EDIT: I included natural gas in the total generation mix. That's my mistake.

I don't discount additional natural gas coming online; that's a good thing. It
throttles faster than nuclear and coal, and produces far less CO2 than coal
generation. Natural gas is almost a requirement as renewables scale up until
batteries for utility scale storage have dropped in price to be competitive.
This is already happening: Tesla is contracting with several utilities to
replace their natural gas peaker plants with battery storage substations.

[http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25172](http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25172)

"Electric generating facilities expect to add more than 26 gigawatts (GW) of
utility-scale generating capacity to the power grid during 2016. Most of these
additions come from three resources: solar (9.5 GW), natural gas (8.0 GW), and
wind (6.8 GW), which together make up 93% of total additions. If actual
additions ultimately reflect these plans, 2016 will be the first year in which
utility-scale solar additions exceed additions from any other single energy
source."

~~~
melling
United States 1,068.4 Gigawatt

It doesn't make sense to include natural gas. We added 15GW of renewable
energy to our 1068 GW. We really need to do a lot better. Your optimism is
unfounded.

------
u42p37yYYRjvhD
haha this better be a fuckin joke down here everything is coal poweered

~~~
sctb
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