
Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching - JumpCrisscross
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/08/29/world/asia/japan-north-korea-missile-warning.html
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NedIsakoff
I posted this to a friend's facebook when he asked, I need to re-write it
better but the idea is there. No one wants DPRK to fall or KJU to die, its too
many fucking refugees.

What you don't realize is that no one (I don't mean average person, I mean
politicians and leaders) really cares what the DPRK (by extension the Kims) do
to their own people as long as they are not a threat to anyone else. China
likes having the DPRK there as a buffer against the American forces in South
Korea. It also provides a distraction as China is claiming the entire South
China Sea.

South Korea while officially saying they want re-unification doesn't really
want it. If and when the DPRK falls, you got 25 million refugees who are
barely able to function in the modern world streaming to China or South Korea.
China will not take the refugee in, they will either deploy PLA at the border
and stop them or take over the DPRK as a puppet state. The economic cost to
absorb the refugees is enormous. In the 20 years after West Germany and East
Germany merged, over 1.3 trillion euros was spent on the former East Germany
and its still behind economically the former West Germany. The GDP per capita
for East Germany at the time of the merger was 10000USD (1990 dollars) and
right now for DPRK it's less than 1500USD (current dollars). West Germany was
also economically much stronger at the time then South Korea is now and has a
much higher population (~60M West, ~15M East) compared to the Koreas (~50M
South, ~25M North). South Korea doesn't have the money or the economic
poweress help the DPRK like West Germany did with East Germany.

EDIT: read this instead, this guy explained what I said much better on Reddit
[https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1etaxd/north_kor...](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1etaxd/north_koreas_hidden_labor_camps_exposed_a_new_un/ca3mnrf/)

~~~
apetresc
I don't know very much about geopolitical whatevers, but can anyone explain-
like-I'm-five why everyone assumes that taking out the North Korean government
has to involve 25 million refugees (which is the entire population of the
country) streaming into China and South Korea? They're not going to nuke all
of NK into inhabitability, people will still live there. I'm sure some people
will want to leave now that they're not under pain of death for doing so, but
probably the vast majority will stay. Did Russian emigrants overwhelm Europe
when the Iron Curtain fell, or Germans when the Berlin Wall did?

(Not trying to be snarky, genuinely curious, because _every time_ this subject
comes up, everyone starts throwing around the "China doesn't want 25M refugees
overnight" argument, so I assume there's some background I'm missing.)

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golergka
> Did Russian emigrants overwhelm Europe when the Iron Curtain fell

Not Europe, no - because most of them didn't have the legal status to gain any
european citizenship. But million jews rushed into Israel, with a total
population of 8 million, which greatly affected the country.

Given that South Korea officially 'wants' unification, they won't have any
other choice but to grant citizen status to everyone - and I don't doubt that
a LOT of north koreans will jump on this opportunity right away.

~~~
tome
> Given that South Korea officially 'wants' unification, they won't have any
> other choice but to grant citizen status to everyone

Of course they'll have the choice not to immediately grant citizenship to 25
million!

~~~
NedIsakoff
The comparison is East Germany vs West Germany, which did.

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sdrothrock
None of the people I know across various providers (iOS and Android alike) got
the alert in Tokyo. Almost everyone I know in Gunma (around 75 miles from
here) got the alert, though... and Gunma is a good 650ish miles away from
southern Hokkaido. It's a mystery to us why some people got the alert and
others didn't.

~~~
solicode
I don't know either, but I got the alert through Yahoo's 防災速報 app. I'm on an
MVNO, so I don't think I would have gotten the alert otherwise.

~~~
kalleboo
If you're on iOS and in the affected area you should have received the alert.

If you're on Android you might need a device sold in the Japan market to get
them (seems there are mixed reports on this, would love to hear from someone
in the industry - does this stuff use standard GSM features and are these
enabled on Android by default? could weird manufacturer skins disable them?).

You also need to be in the affected area to receive the message, although
third party apps often let you customize the range or priority of messages to
receive.

On my US-sold iPhone running on an MVNO I reliably receive earthquake/flood
alerts. But I didn't receive the alert this morning since I live in the other
end of the country where it was not broadcast.

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solicode
Interesting, I assumed it was the carrier, but it might be the model. I have a
Galaxy S7 which I got in Hong Kong. With this variant, I can't find the
emergency alert settings anywhere. That might explain it.

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flor1s
I'm in Ibaraki, my girlfriend received the messages but I didn't. Most people
in my laboratory received the messages as well.

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bemmu
Didn't get this alert here in Tokushima. However we are quite used to typhoon
alerts. It's rather impressive when a room full of phones start alerting at
full blast.

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Double_a_92
Does the alert override your volume settings?

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kobeya
Most alerts are designed to. It probably uses the same underlying system as
the Amber alerts in California, which do override volume settings.

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dogma1138
Well could be worse [http://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/16/world/meast/mideast-
israel...](http://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/16/world/meast/mideast-israel-
rocket-app/index.html)

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ageofwant
Seems Kim called the world's bluff on that missile "shield" touted ad nauseam
whenever NK pops off a cracker. This thing flew basically through the middle
of Japan's airspace and dropped in the drink on the other side. Getting the
distinct impression that most of that American missile shield hardware is kept
down with tent pens.

~~~
ISL
If the trajectory was measured and expected to miss Japan, there would be no
need to use any defense system.

Those playing defense have a lot of incentive to keep their plans and
capabilities quiet and uncertain until they are absolutely required. Once the
defensive strategies are employed openly, the offense can more-reliably
develop countermeasures.

~~~
kobeya
It went over Japan. ICBMs are capable of adjusting their target mid-flight.
There's no way to know it wasn't going to hit Japan.

~~~
kalleboo
From what I've read, the most reliable period to shoot down these things is on
their down-trajectory. At which point it was probably already no longer over
Japan.

edit: for instance this Reddit comment
[https://www.reddit.com/r/japan/comments/6wmnxp/north_korea_f...](https://www.reddit.com/r/japan/comments/6wmnxp/north_korea_fired_a_missile_over_hokkaido_first/dm9a182/)

> The THAAD system that is deployed in Japan intercepts an incoming missile as
> it is coming down on the target, with a maximum altitude of about 150 km.

Which gets you to reading
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_High_Altitude_Area_De...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_High_Altitude_Area_Defense)

> Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), formerly Theater High Altitude
> Area Defense, is an American anti-ballistic missile defense system designed
> to shoot down short, medium, and intermediate range ballistic missiles in
> their terminal phase (descent or reentry) by intercepting with a hit-to-kill
> approach.

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kobeya
The most reliable time to shoot down a missile is when it is just lifting off.
It's moving slowly, lots of fuel, etc. All it takes is a high powered laser
hitting it almost anywhere in its cross section.

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jff
So you're saying all Japan needs to do is station high-powered lasers near all
North Korean missile sites? Seems easy enough.

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kobeya
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_YAL-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_YAL-1)

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program_whiz
This NK situation is crazy -- seems like there is no good way to deal with
this guy. If we silently ignore, he keeps testing until its too late. If we
get aggressive, he pulls the trigger. And "diplomatic pressure" doesn't seem
to be having any effect. We've already had years worth of sanctions -- and
well, this just happened.

~~~
program_whiz
Is our only option to just surprise strike this guy into obvlivion and hope
for the best, take casualties now? Assume that his capability is going to grow
over time, just take whatever losses and assume eventually he will strike --
so best to eliminate the threat now while at the smallest point (but still
obviously huge damage could be done to the innocent).

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andrepd
That is an extremely bad idea. It's easy to talk off-handedly about
casualties, but remember these could be on the scale of _tens of millions_.
This is not something which you just shrug and do. Direct military action has
almost 0% of occurring, by initiative of the West at least.

~~~
yomly
I am not convinced KJU would fear a nuclear fallout. He has nothing to lose.
If he were determined to survive, he is sure to have bunkers to protect him
and he could almost certainly smuggle himself out of the country.

If he really valued the lives of his citizens, you would probably expect a
different means of governing. I don't think you can treat this person as a
rational individual when negotiating...

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usefulcat
Nothing to lose, apart from wealth, power, luxury, the prestige of being the
leader of a nation with a large nuclear-equipped military, not to mention
quite possibly his life... all things I suspect he values quite highly.

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quoquoquo
I wonder why it's okay to not give a shit when it's non-white people
suffering.

It's the same deal with holocaust. Worse things are going on in North Korea,
yet the West seems more concerned about events that happened 70+ years ago.
It's like you are automatically an anti-semite for saying what's happening in
North Korea are equal if not worse than what Jews have gone through, as if
Jews have suffered the most out of human history or something. Of course it's
fucking horrid what Jews went through but it's time we start paying more
attention to modern day holocausts happening around the world.

~~~
dang
We've banned this account for repeatedly violating the Hacker News guidelines.
Would you please stop creating accounts to do this with?

[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html)

