
Vinod Khosla with Sam Altman on How to Build the Future [video] - craigcannon
https://blog.ycombinator.com/vinod-khosla-on-how-to-build-the-future/
======
thinkcontext
I'm surprised he's still considered relevant given how spectacularly his
cellulosic ethanol companies failed, taking probably hundred of $M's in
investor and government money with them. [http://fortune.com/kior-vinod-
khosla-clean-tech](http://fortune.com/kior-vinod-khosla-clean-tech)

edit: fixed the link

~~~
sonnyblarney
80% of VC investments are essentially failures, it doesn't mean they were bad
bets, or even wasted time.

More to the point, everything Vinod said was fairly reasonable, some of it
even contrarian (i.e. 'most VC's don't add value) which is useful given that
most VC's wouldn't even dare say such a thing ... it allows for a conversation
wherein one would not normally be possible.

Sam, for all of his influence and insight, doesn't yet have the
clout/standing/safety to make such public statements about his own industry
without severely risking his neck (and YC reputation as well). _Very_ few
people do, in any industry. I always like to hear someone taking 'their own'
to task.

~~~
thinkcontext
> everything Vinod said was fairly reasonable

He was promising he could beat gasoline at $1.80/gallon by misstating the
yield of ethanol per ton of wood chips.

From the Fortune article I posted:

> The Securities and Exchange Commission has been examining whether the
> company made false statements, including on a critical point: the yield of
> its biofuel (the amount that can be made per ton of wood chips). Two KiOR
> executives and Khosla himself are also facing a class action suit alleging
> that company executives misled investors about production volumes and yield.

...

> During investor calls in 2012, CEO Cannon said KiOR expected to achieve 72
> gallons at a larger commercial production facility in the future and would
> aim to reach 92.

> The problem was that the company wasn’t regularly producing anything close
> to 67, much less 92. In the summer of 2011, after the company’s IPO, its new
> chief operating officer, Bill Coates, told management that it appeared that
> the company had grossly overstated its yields, according to a KiOR
> consultant who spoke with him and was quoted in the state’s court papers.

------
sajid
The signal to noise ratio in this video is extremely high.

~~~
davidw
That goes for a lot of videos, TBH. Lots of introductions, jokes, uhms, ahs
and other junk, and you can't even search them to look for, say, a thing
you're interested in.

~~~
adpirz
Think OP meant lots of signal, ie, not much fluff.

~~~
davidw
Ah, ok. Still, I'd vastly prefer a transcript.

~~~
saurabh20n
90% of the page at the bottom is the transcript. Right below the audio file is
the time annotated transcript as well. Might have been added after you opened
it: should recheck.

------
oth001
Interesting how all comments which voice reasonable criticism of Vinod get
deleted...

~~~
metildaa
YCombinator bans people left and right here on Hacker News for even the most
tame calling out of VC Techbros for their criminal behavior.

Stay safe! The site operators of HN are off the chain, and hate discourse on
this genre of topic. Probably has something to do with YCombinator also being
a VC.

~~~
oth001
I'm sure it does. I thought it was an interesting talk nonetheless.

------
jhayward
There are several comments here about Khosla and his efforts to convert public
right of way to private property on the California Coast. It's fair to ask,
"why is this relevant to a video of his views on the future (tech)?"

It's relevant because the beach controversy shows that the future that Kohsla
wants to create is inimicable to the future that I want to see. He sees a
big-L libertarian future, where the strong eat the weak, wealth is the sole
source of power, and the wealthy act with a large degree of impunity.

So at best, I would watch with that in mind and have to critique everything he
says to pick apart when he is trying to advance that view, vs observations and
ideas that are not tied to it. In this case, I haven't bothered. There are
others I can listen to for insight.

~~~
evancharles
I'm weary of getting into this, but I don't think that's the right conclusion
from the beach issue. I'm not intimately familiar but if you care about it,
I'd recommend reading what he wrote about it.
[https://medium.com/@vkhosla/martins-beach-a-matter-of-
princi...](https://medium.com/@vkhosla/martins-beach-a-matter-of-principle-
property-rights-b32f4de1c97)

(I work at Khosla Ventures and have raised money from Khosla in the past)

~~~
beatpanda
Here's a more recent status update from the other side of this dispute:
[https://www.surfrider.org/coastal-blog/entry/whats-next-
for-...](https://www.surfrider.org/coastal-blog/entry/whats-next-for-martins-
beach)

The Supreme Court refused to take up Khosla's most recent appeal, leaving in
place the requirement that he leave the gate open to the access road to
Martin's Beach.

It will be interesting to see what Khosla does now, given that he has
exhausted his appeals in the court system.

~~~
iaabtpbtpnn
He claims he'll litigate for the rest of his life. I suspect he'll keep
finding new ways to refuse to comply, each time getting a type of citation
that is different from the others based on the letter of the law (though not
its spirit), and appeal each one as far as it'll go.

~~~
jlarocco
Disgusting. It's too bad he'll get away with it. Normal people would go to
jail after a while.

------
dangero
They talk in detail about how at many well known startups, the early employees
went on to start their own companies, which indicates that they were good
early hires because they were great entrepreneurial thinkers.

It seems highly likely to me that the reason so many of the first employees
started their own companies later is because they got a great exit and didn't
need a regular job after that. In addition the experience of being an early
employee at a unicorn startup probably teaches you a lot about how to build
something similar again.

------
StreamBright
I am not sure how relevant the view of these billionaires when:

\- they did it exactly once

\- we know from studies that these people are nondeterministicly getting
rich[1]

[https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610395/if-youre-so-
smart-...](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610395/if-youre-so-smart-why-
arent-you-rich-turns-out-its-just-chance/)

~~~
ryanmercer
In regards to that article:

>If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance.

Someone in the industry, someone with considerable influence, someone active
on this very forum, once told me when asked what their secret was "I worry
it's been more luck than skill".

At the time my immediate thought was "bullshit, you had to have busted your
ass but your background also had to have had great influence but hey fine,
don't tell me". But as time has passed, much reflection, looking at their
peers I now fully believe it. It was largely luck. While the individual had an
interesting idea which started their journey towards success, they've had
fortunate event/connection after fortunate event/connection that have allowed
them to get where they are today. That has allowed them to be doing what they
want to do, pursuing what they want to be pursuing, working towards a goal
that they want more than anything else.

I'd say 10% idea, 20% work ethic, 70% luck.

Wish I had some luck (and maybe the ability to pass some hindsight of my
personal life back to a much younger me so I'd have gotten a degree, avoided
my personal bankruptcy and thus been in a much better position to actually get
opportunities but alas).

~~~
naravara
In a lot of cases I would say that working your ass off basically buys you the
lottery ticket, but whether it pays off is largely luck. Innate talent and
ability might skew the odds in your favor slightly, but I think it's more
likely that they just lower the work-cost of the lottery ticket.

~~~
uniformlyrandom
Exactly. You cannot make it without luck (you need to be in the right place at
the right time), but you greatly improve your chances if you are at the right
place most of the time.

~~~
sidlls
Being at the right place requires a fair bit of luck, too.

------
1024core
My comment
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18866778](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18866778)
got downvoted and flagged because I called out Khosla's selfish and boorish
behavior. Apparently calling a spade a spade doesn't sit well with some of the
hive mind here.

~~~
netvarun
I think it's a tired meme - just like the 'Stephen (Wolfram) The Braggadocio'
meme. It starts getting quite annoying after a while. Especially in the latter
case since Stephen blogs quite a bit and lot of his articles do trend on HN.

Repeatedly pointing out, hmm, their 'flaws', just detracts from the actual
subject matter. And btw, I did enjoy this talk and likewise most of Stephen's
blog posts/writings. [Only exception when such a comment would be warranted is
when Stephen talks about humility ;)]

~~~
PostOnce
There's more to life--and business--than money. Do we want to take advice from
a man who hates the public? Do we want to build that future?

Even if what he says sounds legitimate, should we not question whether there
are motives and ethics unmentioned that we might not have noticed, given his
past behavior?

Should we mention it to viewers who may not be aware of who the man is, so
they can ask those same questions as they watch?

If a man runs for office, and it turns out he used to be a member of the Klan,
should that not weigh on the rest of his speeches, since presumably you can
determine who he is not from what he has said, but from what he has done?

~~~
m0llusk
Hates the public? Are you sure? He bought some property and dared to imagine
he actually owned it. Foolish and untrue, but at some level reasonable enough.
None of that changes the demonstrated value of his advice regarding business.

~~~
PostOnce
It may not change the value of his business advice... but then again, it may.
It may be that he doesn't care about people. It may be that he would recommend
you pollute a river to save money. I'm not saying his advice is without merit,
I'm just saying there may be side effects of his advice that he's not
mentioning, given who he seems to be as a person.

All that said, I haven't met him, I've just read the news, and maybe they have
their own narrative and that isn't who he really is. I'm just saying we should
consider both sides.

------
newyankee
As much brilliant as Vinod Khosla is, i always think about him as the
billionare who blocked public beaches

~~~
jamesblonde
The society that lets you get away with it is also culpable.

~~~
asdfasgasdgasdg
Even if that were true (it ain't), society isn't "letting him get away with
it." It's processing the issue through the legal system, which unfortunately
takes time.

~~~
jamesblonde
I would not say unfortunately, i would say that it has become that way to
reflect power interests. I am a surfer so i feel for the affected...

------
ProAm
This is the public beach lawsuit guy right?

------
thrillgore
I'm not going to give Vinod any thought or consideration until he stops his
seizure of public lands.

------
tomlock
I find it hard to take Altman seriously as a well-reasoned thinker after his
comments on political correctness which were intermeshed with him praising
China's approach to the topic.

~~~
TACIXAT
Context on his comments?

Edit: [http://blog.samaltman.com/e-pur-si-
muove](http://blog.samaltman.com/e-pur-si-muove)

I don't see anything awful in here. There are absolutely people in the bay
area who wish to silence other opinions. I'm a pretty liberal person and this
place is ridiculous.

~~~
tomlock
There are literally arms of the government in China that wish to silence other
opinions.

If Altman feels comfortable in China it is only because _he_ is divorced from
the context there.

