
Tesla’s “unexpected” new product reveal postponed til Wednesday - CapitalistCartr
https://techcrunch.com/2016/10/17/teslas-unexpected-new-product-reveal-postponed-til-wednesday/
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jfoster
I think the article is on the wrong track regarding autopilot speculation. It
seems unlikely that "a new product unexpected by most" would end up being an
autopilot upgrade.

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leadingthenet
Agreed. "Unexpected by most" has to mean a new product line, otherwise the
wording doesn't make too much sense (and would build up unnecessary hype, were
it only an evolutionary update to an existing product).

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martin_bech
"Unexpected by most" could be related to the pace of the uprade, Autopilot 2.0
with next level autonomy ready next month, hardware already in cars leaving
factory. I expect a big upgrade to Autopilot OR a new product line.

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leadingthenet
But isn't that precisely what we expect them to do? People have been
predicting a fully autonomous Tesla for years now.

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givinguflac
Tesla Truck?

Smart/Mini competitor?

Watercraft of some type?

Finally revealing the fictional electric plane mentioned in Iron Man 2?

Tesla Motorcycle?

A transforming amphibious Tesla vehicle?

As unlikely as most of these are, they are more likely than this much hype for
announcing the next level of autopilot.

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jacquesm
Were you around when Dean Kamen's 'IT/Ginger' was hyped so much people were
totally disappointed when it turned out to be the Segway?

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rdlecler1
This is a risky strategy. Tesla has been missing deadlines and has ambitious
timelines with the new FIFA factory, add to that a SolarCity integration and
Musk running a little rocket company called SpaceX, and I could see investors
punishing Telstar is this isn't absolutely magical and fully baked. Until the
Model 3 is delivered, everything else is a distraction.

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pi-err
> Until the Model 3 is delivered, everything else is a distraction

Agreed - except to increase cash flow to get to build >500k Tesla 3 fast
enough.

They're climbing a mountain of risk at this point. If the first T3 production
year is too low in quality and/or quantity, the rest of the reservations could
evaporate, especially as the rest of the industry is finally embracing
electric.

A utility version of Tesla X could churn out some hard needed cash.

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toomuchtodo
There isn't enough battery manufacturing capacity in the world for other auto
manufacturers without Tesla's Gigafactory.

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gwbas1c
There's rumors of a small Tesla SUV parked at LAX last Friday. I wonder if
they're re-revealing the Model 3, or a variant of it?

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jlebrech
Tesla Motorbike PLEASEEEEEE

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thenewwazoo
There are some players in this space already, and I don't think it would be a
smart play for Tesla to enter it.

Motorcycle manufacturing is a ~$4.4bn industry, and there were about as many
Toyota Camrys sold in 2015 as there were on-highway motorcycles, so the market
opportunity there is very limited. Motorcyclists as a demographic tend to be
conservative in their preferences (for example, see the debate over ABS,
Harley Davidson), as well as _very_ cost-sensitive. The machines themselves
are very sensitive to weight, and even the best batteries can't compete with
gasoline for energy density which either means very short range (see Zero's
offerings) or very heavy bikes (see the late Mission Motorcycles' 550lb R).
Finally, there are very few engineering synergies between motorcycles and cars
so cost savings by parts reuse is negligible.

Tesla's historical model of starting with a premium offering wouldn't work
because even the best LiIon motorcycle couldn't compete with a petrol-powered
competitor in any objective measure except for environmental friendliness...
which is insufficiently compelling to the typical rider to open the market.

Motorcycles are very cool, and I'm an avid long-time rider, but e-bikes are
necessarily a niche of a niche. Tesla is looking for hockey-stick growth over
the medium term.

Edit: forgot to add that US automobile manufacturing output was ~$61bn in
2015.

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perseusprime11
Tesla Hybrid similar to Prius?

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jlebrech
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fp_K71MM6Xk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fp_K71MM6Xk)

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gnode
Well they did say it would be unexpected.

