
What Will Replace The Internet? (2000) - hammock
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,997263,00.html
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easong
Maybe I'm seeing through some powerful nostalgia goggles, but I remember Time
as a serious magazine running well thought out and enlightening articles by
informed people fairly frequently not so long ago.

Now look at the top links - 10 Weirdest Theme Parks! Top 10 Fashion Ad
Campaigns! Elizabeth Taylor's Killer Beauty! ''It Gives Fart Jokes a Bad
Name": The Six Harshest Criticisms of "Jack and Jill!" Worst Oscar Dresses Of
All Time: A Gallery Of The Academy Awards' Biggest Fashion Flops (PHOTOS)

I think that the self-imposed infantilization of the average consumer is the
biggest trend that I didn't see coming until it was here.

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chubot
Yup. I used to read Time Magazine all the time when I was in my teens... then
I picked it up recently and I'm like "was I an idiot when I was a kid?" But I
think it's really that Time Magazine became trash at some point...

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jacques_chester
_The Daily Show_ addressed the yawning gap between the credibility of the US
and international editions of _Time_ in the past week or so.

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jaredsohn
Daily Show: [http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-
february-14-2012/time-...](http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-
february-14-2012/time-magazine-s-u-s--edition)

US vs. other magazine covers: <http://imgur.com/gallery/W2Y5u>

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sumukh1
It seems eerily accurate. Some quotes that caught my eye.

>Equipped with radio links, a pda can serve as an appliance-control remote, a
digital wallet, a cell phone, an identity badge, an e-mail station, a digital
book, a pager and perhaps even a digital camera <\- iOS/Android

>One can imagine driving in the car, asking our WIDGET [Smartphone] for the
name of the nearest Thai restaurant, getting an answer, asking for
reservations and then for directions.<\- Siri

>Privacy will come at a premium. Enormous quantities of data about our daily
affairs will flow across the Internet, working to make our lives easier.
Despite our penchant for giving up privacy in exchange for convenience, our
experiences online may make us yearn for the anonymity of the past.<\-
Facebook etc.

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user24
> programmable devices will become so cheap that we will embed them in the
> cardboard boxes into which we put other things for storage or shipping.
> These passive "computers" will be activated as they pass sensors and will be
> able to both emit and absorb information <\- RFID

But some of it's so accurate I wonder if they're being a bit cheeky and
describing what was bleeding edge at time of publication in slightly vague
terms, then if it catches on they seem visionary further down the line?

Like if I was to have predicted when I first saw eInk at a science museum that
one day we'll be instantly buying and reading books on low powered wireless
devices. Well yeah, I've just seen eInk! It's only visionary if I predict it
_before_ I see the early prototypes.

For example, RFID has been around since at least the 1980s, so it doesn't seem
that impressive that Vint predicted its rise in 2000.

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Game_Ender
The by line explains why the article feels so spot on: "Vinton Cerf". The big
glaring mistake is that we call "WIDGETs" Smartphones.

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Dn_Ab
I came here to write just that. The only predictions I am sceptical about
(more hoping against hope) are nanoscale atomically precise manufacturing and
an interplanetary backbone. I've heard Vint Cerf talk about that
interplanetary network before and although I hope I am wrong, I don't think
the economic incentives will be aligned to make ventures into space worth
taking by 2020. As for nanoscale that one is a free variable like nuclear
fusion power, and superhuman AI. They all seem like they are missing a key
that when unlocked will just lead to a cascade of progress. I predict
synthetic biology to be a precursor to a lot of what nanomachines will be good
for.

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SideburnsOfDoom
In the short term, the answer is "more better internet". It’s entrenched, so
it must improve while maintaining compatibility.

what replaces cars on roads? – this is another entrenched set of interlocking
technologies, so there’s a lot of value in improving the cars and the roads.
Even electric cars on smart roads isn't a breaking change.

Likewise, HTML5 over SPDY over 4G mobile isn't a breaking change to the whole
idea of "internet", which was once NNTP, POP and HTML1-over-HTTP, all over
ethernet cable, it's just a set of evolutionary upgrades.

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ChrisNorstrom
The Matrix.

No really. Some form of "The Matrix". Think about it. Look at our world. All
the land has already been claimed. There's no where new left to go to. If
society wanted to start over and try out a new government that's next to
impossible without serious bloodshed because there's no land left to escape to
and settle on. You have to take it from someone else. Just look at the
Palistinian/Israeli conflict. Ownership over one little strip of land has
caused so much bloodshed and destroyed so many lives. On top of that, all the
good spots have already been taken (fertile land). But with virtual reality
you can simulate all of these things.

In it's current form "second life" is a sad representation of virtual reality
because of a lack of advancement in the underlying technology. The way we
build worlds, the limitation of their size, the way we render 3D environments,
the way we allow people to control their limited actions in that world are all
very pathetic at the moment.

But looking at brain wave readers, simulators, contact lens displays. In the
future Virtual Reality will be the ultimate escape. Look at how desperate
people are to escape reality already. They drink themselves to near death,
LSD, Weed, hallucinogens, meth, anti-depressants. People are so desperate to
escape the pain of reality that they are even willing to self destruct and put
themselves in deliberate harm. So if you can make a way for people to fulfill
their dreams safely, you've hit gold. Better than gold actually. Hope.
Happiness. Life. What every human being wants. Fuck the gold. You can bypass
it.

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gaelian
I wonder if ultra-realistic VR would be easier or harder to achieve than
colonizing the sea.

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ChrisNorstrom
Hmmmmm. VR would be less risky and less maintenance, it would be more software
based rather than hardware and construction based. So I'd guess the ultra-
realistic VR would be easier.

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kalynovskiy
Apparently full digitization of surrounding world is unavoidable. And
digitization nowadays of course means internetization and wi-fiization. Pardon
me for new terms but I can assure you they are unavoidable too :) Digital
gadgets industry just started to grow couple decades ago and imagine what will
be around us 50 years from now. We constantly improving stuff and trying to
modernize things by digitizing them. I wonder how soon I'll see knife with
meat thermometer build-in into its handle displaying temperature on electronic
LED monitor and listening voice commands in order to confirm medium-well
temperature on some cooking server via wi-fi. Ideas are endless, it's
execution of those ideas that hold us down. We need more startups around!

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sniperjoe
The ability of the author to predict the future of technology is spot on.
Makes me shudder to think about what will be written when we're all 90 year
old men. What science / technological wonders we'll never see.

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GraffitiTim
I wonder what the most accurate current 20 year prediction of technology is.
Anyone want to hazard an attempt?

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abecedarius
I was impressed with Vernor Vinge's novel _Rainbows End_ set around the late
2020s or so. Big deals included augmented reality with wearable interfaces,
robots and ubiquitous computing, social software, biotech, and some brain
hacking. And Hollywood and the national security state basically winning the
fight against Turing machines.

(It was published 5 years ago.)

My own guess is we'll see game-changing nanotech sooner than most people
think.

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iscrewyou
He is on the right track as of 2012. Edit: Accidentally put 2011.

