
Tracking Coronavirus by Smell Test - lordmax
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-01/tracking-coronavirus-by-smell-test-is-risk-manager-s-project-now
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tjansen
About 6 weeks ago, I had a cold. I didn't think much about it, because at that
time the virus wasn't supposed to have arrived here (reports started a week
later). I had a dry cough initially, chills on two nights, but without fever,
and some light trouble of breathing, which isn't that unusual for me in Winter
and I blamed on my allergic asthma. However, when it was mostly over, I
noticed that I wasn't able to smell my daughter's dirty diapers. Usually I am
pretty good at smelling her even if she's in another room, but I smelled
absolutely nothing, even when changing the diaper. That was long before I read
the first reports of anosmia. Ever since I wonder whether I already got it.. I
guess I will never know..

~~~
ageitgey
I had pretty bad Corona-like symptoms in late January/Feb in London. There was
documented community transmission at that point, but it was very early (single
digits) so it's technically possible but not mathematically likely that I had
it.

The more I've mentioned this to people, the more I've heard people bring up
their own stories and theories that they all had super bad flus this year
unlike any other year and are all convinced they already had COVID. So
everyone has convinced themselves that they already got it, no matter what
city they were in at the time and whether they got sick in November or
February.

This is hard to grapple with because I'm sure that any give year, a lot of
people randomly get a bad flu like they've never had before with unique
symptoms. And if you happen to be that person this year, then of course you
would think you had this new disease that matches the symptoms. But given the
lack of secondary community effects at the same time (other hospitalizations
in your area), it's more likely that most of us are wrong and it's just a co-
incidence. But if you are the person suffering the coincidence, it appears the
same as if you are the person who actually got infected.

So who knows? I guess until antibody tests are widely available, none of us
will know for sure.

~~~
abnry
This sort of thing reminds me of a story about the Seattle windshielding
pitting phenomenon.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seattle_windshield_pitting_epi...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seattle_windshield_pitting_epidemic)

The point is, often things that are quite common but otherwise unnoticed all
of a sudden appear to be an outbreak due to some sort of new found public
consciousness. Everybody is analyzing their latest cough and fever so you are
going to get a lot more stories of people with coronavirus symptoms even if
people getting those sorts of symptoms is quite common (relatively speaking).
It's just reporting of those symptoms has increased.

With respect to COVID-19, the real sign of its unusualness is the increase in
hospital admissions for respiratory issues.

~~~
omgwtfbyobbq
There were an increase in outbreaks, flu related deaths, and I believe
hospitalizations around the end of the year in California when comparing 2018
to 2019.

2018
[https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/CDPH%20Document%20...](https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/CDPH%20Document%20Library/Immunization/Week2018-1952_FINALReport.pdf)

2019
[https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/CDPH%20Document%20...](https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/CDPH%20Document%20Library/Immunization/Week2019-2052_FINALReport.pdf)

I could be just the flu, but it could also be the start of something else
circulating with the flu. Even in that case odds are that something else was
not covid-19, but it could be. The only way to tell would be to test blood
collected at the time for serological evidence of covid-19.

~~~
abnry
Yes, one of the things we need to do to get past all of this is to widely test
for antibodies. I am really hoping that comes soon.

------
YeGoblynQueenne
>> If enough people who suddenly found themselves without a sense of smell
self-reported their condition, you might well create an early warning signal
that told you where the virus was heading, and how fast.

I am skeptical. A test based on the sense of smell would have a very high
amount of noise. There is no good, concrete measure of a person's sense of
smell. One has to ask the person to get a "measurment" and it's very hard to
know what different people would mean by "I can smell fine" or "I can't smell
as well as I used to".

Maybe some people would convince themselves they have no sense of smell (like
some people convince themselves they are gluten or lactose "intolerant").
Maybe some people who have a weak sense of smell anyway (because they smoke or
live in places with a high level of air pollution) would tend to ignore having
completely lost their smell.

In any case, it would be very hard to track real infections with such an
unreliable measure.

~~~
pen2l
I’m covid19-positive and I don’t have any impairment in my ability to smell
nor do I recall having such impairment in recent time. The most salient
symptoms for me have been GI problems.

~~~
akavel
_" [The doctors] concluded that roughly 80% of the people who lost their sense
of smell would test positive for the coronavirus, and that somewhere between
30% and 60% of those who had tested positive for the virus had also lost their
sense of smell."_

covid19? --> ~30-60% chance of loss of smell

loss of smell? --> ~80% chance of covid19 [in the data they collected]

~~~
gnulinux
Is this loss of sense of smell permanent? That sounds very scary.

~~~
wollstonecraft
Olfactory neurons are somewhat notable for their ability to regenerate.

~~~
gnulinux
Does the virus damage olfactory neurons, or does it cause loss of smell via
different mechanism?

For what it's worth, my grandma lost her sense of smell permanently in her 30s
after a car crash. Unfortunately, now she can't tell if the food is burning.

------
adrianmonk
I've seen two other neat ways proposed to try to track the virus:

(1) Do PCR tests on wastewater. Viruses show up in excrement, and sewer pipes
are a ready-made aggregate sample collection system. See
[https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.29.20045880v...](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.29.20045880v1)

(2) Figure out which keywords correlate with other data about the spread, then
mine social media data for those keywords. See
[https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.24.20026682v...](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.24.20026682v1)

~~~
joelvalleroy
Would 1) work if the tap water has chlorine? Can a dead or inactivated virus
still be tested for?

[https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-does-
chlorine...](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-does-chlorine-
added-t-1998-05-04/)

"To ensure continued protection against harmful organisms, a certain amount of
chlorine must remain in the water after treatment. The remaining chlorine is
known as a residual chlorine. It is this tiny amount that you sometimes smell
in your tap water."

[https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/water.html](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/water.html)

"Can the COVID-19 virus spread through pools and hot tubs? There is no
evidence that COVID-19 can be spread to humans through the use of pools and
hot tubs. Proper operation, maintenance, and disinfection (e.g., with chlorine
and bromine) of pools and hot tubs should remove or inactivate the virus that
causes COVID-19."

~~~
adrianmonk
Chlorination is an interesting question. On the one hand, the paper says the
researchers did tests of actual sewage and found it worked in practice. On the
other hand, wikipedia says
([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_supply_and_sanitation_in...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_supply_and_sanitation_in_the_Netherlands))
chlorine isn't generally added to the water supply in the Netherlands.

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jessriedel
I am baffled that even in the age of corona the author feels the need to begin
a story about proposed vital monitoring methods with a vingette about his
father. If the author discovers the secret to medical immortality, will the
article he writes about it first tease us with a love story to hook our
interest?

~~~
zwieback
I'm as nerdy as the next guy here but I enjoyed the opener.

~~~
jessriedel
I enjoy stand-up comedy, but the usefulness of journalism suffers if mere
enjoyment is the standard for inclusion.

------
jermeh
Anecdotal, but someone very close to me who works on machinery realized one
day that he could not smell gasoline at all. A few days later, he tested
positive. It seems to be a good indicator for some.

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bpaddock
Body Zinc levels are linked to the sense of smell.

One of the many places linking Zinc and sense of smell:

[https://www.mayoclinic.org/drugs-supplements-
zinc/art-203661...](https://www.mayoclinic.org/drugs-supplements-
zinc/art-20366112)

There have been reports of Zinc being used in conjunction with other
medications to address C19.

~~~
bitwize
I've been using zinc suckies as a form of prophylaxis against respiratory
viruses for a while now. There's actually some research that suggests it's
effective at preventing cold virus particles from attaching to and invading
the throat, so it doesn't surprise me that it would also be effective against
COVID-19 (which is kind of a super-Saiyan cold virus).

~~~
spookybones
How often do you take them? I have some that advise to stop using after seven
days, which leaves me wondering whether I should take them as a precaution or
take them if I feel any early indicators of a virus. Also, I notice that they
dry out my tongue.

~~~
georgeam
Do you mind sharing how many mg (milligrams) of zinc are in the one you have
which advises to limit use to 7 days? I noticed that the Mayo clinic site says
the maximum dose per day for an adult is 40 mg. I'm curious whether this 40 mg
is safe for indefinite use, or such a 40 mg limit would also be for a maximum
of 7 days.

------
rolivercoffee
Researchers crunching data from a COVID-19 symptom tacking app in the UK have
come to similar conclusions [1]

[1] [https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/research-update-
april-1-2020](https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/research-update-april-1-2020)

------
adrianmonk
Could postcards with scratch and sniff actually be useful here?

If you just ask people about their sense of smell, I'm not sure they can give
you a reliable answer. But maybe you could design a postcard to give them with
a few numbered squares on it, and they could tell you whether they notice
anything when they scratch each one of those. (It could be a blind test, too.)

Stick a URL or QR code on the postcard and you can collect the data.

The postcard could serve as both material for the experiment and
advertisement. Mail them out to random people in an area you want to sample.

I've gotten these sorts of things in the mail as advertisements in the past,
so obviously it's very feasible to produce them.

~~~
gentleman11
Just wave a container of garlic under your nose

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bamboozled
Is this so unusual though? I feel like when I get a flu or cold I often lose
my sense of taste/smell and it's partly why I lose my appetite ?

I guess it's due to a blocked nose / inflamed mucous membranes, maybe that's
what is different?

~~~
jryan49
I don't have any proof I had it but I think I did around Valentine's day. It
was very different from the type of smell loss from inflammation. I had no
inflammation in my nose and could breathe through it fine, yet nothing.
Usually with inflammation I can smell or taste if I sniff a bit. This was like
a switch was turned off. I haven't had anything like it before. It took almost
a week for it to start coming back. I thought it wasn't coming back that's how
pronounced and strange it was.

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HSO
Hendrik Streeck, the researcher who identified loss of smell and/or taste as a
covid symptom in the first place, recently stated that it seems to occur
primarily in the later stages of the disease (although he cautions that this
has not yet been studied enough to be sure about it). So I'm not sure if this
is really useful to track the disease.

Unfortunately I only have this German source handy:
[https://youtu.be/VP7La2bkOMo?t=178](https://youtu.be/VP7La2bkOMo?t=178)

------
neonate
[https://archive.md/PQyi9](https://archive.md/PQyi9)

------
terramex
Interestingly, you can see increase in searches for "I can't smell" on Google
Trends since 8 March.

    
    
      https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=i cant smell

~~~
seles
True, but it didn't really start to spike until around the march 22-28 bin and
there are articles about this around that time, for example a quick google
serach finds [https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-
diseases/coronav...](https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-
diseases/coronavirus/lost-sense-of-smell-coronavirus) from March 23

So this could easily be explained by people googling about the theory itself.

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m3kw9
CDC should include people that can’t smell recently to do a test right away as
a precaution.

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acd
Could you train Corona dogs then that would smell test patients like a check
by dogs at the border customs patrol?

~~~
est31
Yes, people are trying that. [https://www.marketwatch.com/story/highly-
trained-dogs-could-...](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/highly-trained-dogs-
could-help-combat-the-spread-of-coronavirus-heres-how-they-might-sniff-it-
out-2020-03-31)

Note that this article is about a corona symptom, Anosmia, not about the
ability to smell patients. According to this [1] source, it only shows up in
30%-60% of cases.

[1]:
[https://www.entuk.org/sites/default/files/files/Loss%20of%20...](https://www.entuk.org/sites/default/files/files/Loss%20of%20sense%20of%20smell%20as%20marker%20of%20COVID.pdf)

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Causality1
Google and Facebook could pull this off very easily.

~~~
wila
You can use google trends for that:

[https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=can%27t%20...](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=can%27t%20smell)

