
Tesla Q4 2019 Vehicle Production and Deliveries - reddotX
https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries
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xvector
I love my Model 3.

Yes, its "luxury" is not up to the price. Sure, the customer service sucks.
Yeah, repairs take a long time.

But for me, when I ride in a Tesla, I get a giddy feeling, like the first time
I held an iPhone. You just _know_ it's the future. There are so many radical,
bold, and _correct_ ideas. Every time I get a software update I'm a kid on
Christmas morning. It is just such a fun experience, and for those of you who
love to be on the bleeding edge, you'd probably love it too.

It's not a car for everyone but I get the same feeling about Tesla as I did
about Apple when they came out with the iPhone. 8 years later and no company
has managed to come up with a car that seriously competes with the 2012 Model
S. Tesla was the first to market and remains the market leader. They've
solidified their position in the minds of Americans. They have a grand vision
and they're executing on it. This company is headed to the moon.

~~~
lotsofpulp
I would consider a Tesla if it offered CarPlay. And I would prefer tactile
controls instead of that hideous tablet.

~~~
null_turkey
It's funny, people often compare Tesla (or electric cars in general) to the
transition to iPhones from our flip phones and the complaints are the exact
same: "I would prefer tactile controls"

~~~
lotsofpulp
I would consider the fact that one’s eyes should be on the road while driving
to make the complaints slightly different.

~~~
gkfasdfasdf
Do you really use dashboard buttons or knobs without looking? I can't.

Steering wheel buttons / stalk controls I can use without looking, but Tesla
has those as well.

~~~
ericd
I might glance quickly to find where the knob is, but I don’t have to keep my
eye on it to grab it, nor (more importantly) to adjust it to where I want it.

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ricw
This is impressive, but the most impressive part is that Tesla will likely
grow another 50% in the coming year given their guidance.

Tesla China can now produce 3k cars a week, let’s extrapolate that to the year
at a really conservative 2k, which results in about 100k extra cars annually.
The same can be expected from the model Y ramp which according to Tesla rumors
is already well under way, given that it’s effectively the same process as the
model 3.

All while not being legally allowed to sell in half of the USA due to outdated
car dealership rules, I’d expect this trend to continue given their product
roadmap. If they can keep this trend going for 10 years, they’ll be the
largest car manufacture in the world. Hah kidding, that would just be
impossible to keep up for so long.

~~~
ortusdux
On a separate note, I've been wondering how Tesla's relationship with China
will affect Starlink. When I first learned about Musk's satellite internet
plans, I was optimistic that it could bring unfettered internet access to the
billion+ people subject to aggressive internet censorship. Now I doubt Musk
will go against a country that is providing over a 1/5th of his car sales.

~~~
iddqd
Starlink is done by SpaceX, not Tesla.

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xxpor
Why do you think China will make that distinction?

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hourislate
The auto industry is really going to go through some changes in the next
decade. It wouldn't surprise me if a few majors like GM, Ford, BMW, Mercedes,
Chrysler, Nissan. etc are still around or on their way out. At this point
Tesla seems to be doing better every month while other manufacturers just
can't mount a serious challenge when it comes to EV's. The more time that
passes, the stronger Tesla seems to get.

~~~
aguyfromnb
This EV transition will likely wipe a few out, for sure. It's hard to imagine
how the pension burdened American co's will survive. But Tesla actually _lost_
market share quarter-over-quarter in the US. It's a rough market for autos
right now.

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davidgould
Say what? Where did you see that? Autos overall are down, Tesla is selling
record numbers, how did they lose market share?

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aguyfromnb
> _Autos overall are down, Tesla is selling record numbers, how did they lose
> market share?_

Tesla's revenues as a percentage of total auto sales decreased last quarter.
Simple math.

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davidgould
Please cite sources or numbers. As I understand it global auto sales are down
and Tesla is up, so simple math would not support your claim. If you have
evidence, please present it.

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adrr
I thought Elon tweeted early last year that Tesla was on track to build 500K
cars in 2019 year. 370K is way off from that number.

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Someone1234
So he violated his agreement with the SEC again? Specifically he didn't get
his statement pre-approved by Tesla's lawyers to assure accuracy (since it is
factually inaccurate).

In fact this exact type of tweet is listed by expressly in the updated
agreement[0].

[0] [https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/26/business/elon-musk-
tesla-...](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/26/business/elon-musk-tesla-
sec.html)

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awrence
If the SEC's new standard is to reprimand every CEO that makes a forecast the
company ends up coming short on they're gonna get pretty busy pretty quick...

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Someone1234
It isn't. It is a settlement agreement that Musk personally and Tesla agreed
to in order to avoid additional fines and penalties from his previous
misconduct.

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marvin
There was a lot of drama when Musk made this tweet, and we don't know what
sort of discussions or agreements have been made behind closed doors.

Musk hasn't made similar tweets since then, so it seems plausible that SEC did
indeed give some sort of warning, or that the parties have had some sort of
clarifying exchange regarding their agreement.

~~~
gpm
The SEC publicly sued over this tweet, and basically lost. All they got out of
it was the new agreement that makes the previous agreement clearer. Not the
sort of punishment they were asking for.

This is all a matter of public record, it was not handled behind closed doors.

~~~
marvin
Thanks for the info, I wasn't aware of the lawsuit and its conclusion. That
definitely settles the initial point.

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MDWolinski
It's a great quarter for Tesla, but how much was driven by the end of the tax
rebate in the US at the end of the year? It'll be interesting to see how Q1
2020 compares in terms of deliveries in the US. International growth may
become a higher percentage of growth over the next year, if they break it out
that way.

I'm also wondering if sometime in 2020 Tesla reduces the price of the vehicle
to offset the previous tax incentive.

~~~
rconti
If I remember correctly, it was down to $1850 for Q4, from a high of $7500
when we bought ours.

We've been hearing this "what about when the tax handouts go away" story for
awhile, and it hasn't really panned out. Of course, Tesla has taken the edge
off of that by strategically lowering prices, but now that it's down to $1850
(well, okay, $0 today) the benefit is marginal at best.

I actually had 3 friends ask me, unsolicited, for my referral code, in Q4
alone. 2 of those have been delivered, one hasn't ordered yet.

My only other referral was a year ago.

If anything, the increasing interest over time surprises me. I really did
think they'd have a hard time sustaining sales once the initial backlog
cleared out.

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oblio
The main thing I actually care about:

How on-track are they with deliveries for Model 3, especially outside of the
US? Do you still have to wait 2 years to get a car?

Are they delivering the base model? Not the super expensive 60k EUR model, but
something closer to the 35k USD.

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michaelt
In the US you can get a $40k model from stock right now.

Their website claims "$6,300 potential incentives and gas savings" to argue
it's really more like a $35k car. Whether you find that convincing is up to
you.

~~~
FireBeyond
How much does an electrician cost to install a 240V line and outlet to your
garage? That probably eats a bit of the "potential savings" from their "TCO
pricing"...

~~~
wilg
Looks like usually less than $1000
([https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/wall-charger-
installat...](https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/wall-charger-installation-
cost)).

Plus you don't need 240v, you can charge slowly on 110 which could make sense
depending on how much you drive.

Plus you can charge elsewhere.

But yes the incentive number is silly on their pricing page.

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tyingq
I'm interested to see what the used market for Model 3's will look like. We're
close to hitting the point where a notable number of original owners might
want to trade in.

Im guessing it will be an odd market, since parts and service might be
difficult for secondary owners. And a fair amount of the Model 3 parts have
had a less than stellar history for durability.

~~~
rconti
Why would parts and service be more difficult for 2nd hand owners vs original
buyers? The model should be the same. Schedule in the app, take it to a
service center.

If anything, I'd wonder about warranty vs off-warranty. But don't they have
even MORE of an incentive to service off-warranty vehicles which represent a
revenue stream vs a cost?

~~~
tyingq
Tesla seems to have a bad reputation for parts availability. I suspect they
would prioritize new owners.

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drukenemo
I wonder if the new factory in Germany will lower the costs for the European
market. Currently it's pricey to fully own (not lease) a Tesla in Europe.

~~~
gerikson
That assumes that an EU factory will find economies of scale and efficiencies
to counter the higher real wages in EU compared to the US and China. And that
Tesla won't simply add those efficiencies to their bottom line.

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Klathmon
Are the wages in Germany really higher than in Fremont, CA (right outside one
of the highest cost of living areas in the country)?

~~~
gerikson
This article (1st Google hit) suggests they are:

[https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/98986/the-global-
car-...](https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/98986/the-global-car-
manufacturing-wage-gap-what-do-car-factory-workers-earn)

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agumonkey
Stock is on a clear path.

Not too long ago Tesla was a risk, let's see how they operate with confidence.

I hope their semi will deliver.

ps: also battery technology and chemistry. Very important.

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ntsplnkv2
I just want actually affordable electric cars.

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agumonkey
Think larger, climate change and all that

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tardo99
You don't think the cost of the car is at least partially a proxy for the
amount of energy required to produce the components (primarily the battery)?
Some pretty smart people have questioned whether, absent innovations in
battery recycling, electric cars are actually green.

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agumonkey
I don't know much about battery recycling but from the few I've read lithium
batteries are above the 90% recycling mark (I've read 99%). Electric cars are
far from totally green, but ICE are one order of magnitude more polluting
(more parts, more lubricant, more cooling fluid, less lifespan).

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abc_lisper
Onward and upward!

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jacknews
decent, but there must surely be a government grant that can improve those
numbers?

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Cthulhu_
Why? They're still in the luxury position where demand outweighs production
and still need to scale up. That said they are getting government help in the
form of tax breaks and stipends for consumers. Some of which are being toned
down now (since this year) because a government's money isn't infinite either.

~~~
jacknews
yeah, irony doesn't work well on the internet

my point is that his empire is largely ssupported by government grants etc,
even though I do greatly admire his innovative approach and successes.

