
Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives? - kiloreux
Basically how will life be different from now ? What elements of it will be significantly better&#x2F;worse ?
======
27182818284
I have the feeling in the US, the rate of increase of partially meatless,
vegetarian, and vegan households is going to increase. (i.e., meatless
adoption acceleration)

The polling seems to be all over the map with Gallup saying that vegetarianism
was just 6% in 1999 and 5% in 2018 showing no growth [1] while other
publications say 6% of US consumers now claim to be vegan, up from just 1% in
2014 [2].

In my experience it is definitely the latter. In my part of the country, it
used to be that grocery stores carried Boca burgers at best in specialty parts
of the store. Now they carry several brands in dedicated sections typically
labeled something like "Meatless Meals". Instead of just Boca, it is now
routine to see Boca, Gardein, and Beyond Meat. The last of which is reportedly
going to go public as a company[3]

1: [https://news.gallup.com/poll/238328/snapshot-few-
americans-v...](https://news.gallup.com/poll/238328/snapshot-few-americans-
vegetarian-vegan.aspx)

2: [https://www.reportbuyer.com/product/4959853/top-trends-in-
pr...](https://www.reportbuyer.com/product/4959853/top-trends-in-prepared-
foods-2017-exploring-trends-in-meat-fish-and-seafood-pasta-noodles-and-rice-
prepared-meals-savory-deli-food-soup-and-meat-substitutes.html)

3: [https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beyond-meat-is-going-
publi...](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beyond-meat-is-going-
public-5-things-to-know-about-the-plant-based-meat-maker-2018-11-23)

~~~
PerfectElement
In 10 years it's likely that clean meat will also be widely available. I just
listened to an interesting podcast episode about it:
[https://youtu.be/rE93wKm0Ok8](https://youtu.be/rE93wKm0Ok8)

------
joekw
I work in the fishing industry. Based on what I am seeing - fully autonomous
fishing boats/cleaning/packing plants. You know how you have a single farmer
handling hectares of farmland, its really looking like fisheries are going to
go the same way easily in 10 years.

~~~
elliekelly
This is really concerning. The fishing industry is fairly manual but many fish
populations are already pushed to the brink. I went to Antartica a few months
ago and I was shocked at how many squid boats we could see at night on our way
down. Hundreds and hundreds with huge bright lights to lure them to their
machinery. Overfishing is a real problem to the point that the current
situation is almost unsustainable. I worry automation will push it over the
edge.

~~~
eldavido
Overfishing is a regulatory, not technical, problem.

Though I do think many of the hardest problems today are regulatory (climate,
health, digital political advertising), not necessarily technical.

~~~
elliekelly
I disagree. Regulations and technology go hand-in-hand. Often the technology
comes first and regulations try to keep up.

~~~
eloff
I don't think technology is the issue here, it will just exacerbate an already
existing problem of unsustainable fisheries management.

------
rootusrootus
\- Another lost decade of growth, with Generation X realizing their 401k won't
actually grow enough to let them retire before 70.

\- Autonomous cars will continue to be a tantalizing but unrealized dream for
all but a few niche markets.

\- AI will fade back into science fiction. Automation will continue to be the
boogeyman that isn't quite here yet.

\- I think public support of the health insurance status quo will collapse and
Medicare for All will become an actual Thing.

\- Facebook and Google will face legitimate disruptors. Apple will try to
pivot away from reliance on iPhone for growth and try to be another Alphabet
instead.

~~~
eldavido
> I think public support of the health insurance status quo will collapse and
> Medicare for All will become an actual Thing.

I'm almost certain about the first part (collapse) but much less certain about
the second.

The fundamental issue is affordability: we can't afford the health system we
have. No matter who pays, the burden is going to be substantial. It's just a
question of whether it's foisted onto shareholders (capital), households, or
taxpayers.

I'm honestly 50/50 on whether we'll head toward more widespread government
insurance or whether coverage will become harder to get, thereby forcing more
people into the private markets, with healthcare orgs working more like auto
repair shops -- mostly private with a lot of price competition, and broad
affordability. Either outcome has its pros and cons.

I think a lot of the next 15-20 years is going to depend on what happens
during the next 5. It's basically two outcomes.

Scenario A: Interest rates continue to climb, urban housing affordability
improves through some level of deregulation/less aggressive zoning, tech fans
out a bit. The sense that prosperity is too concentrated starts to dissipate.
Ocasio-Cortez and co. lose steam and the US turns back toward a more moderate
politics.

Scenario B: Things continue as they are now. More young people embrace
socialism because growing student debt, unaffordability of housing, and
rising/unavailable healthcare lead to a greater desire for government control
of the economy. US takes a hard left turn, we get Bernie or someone of the far
left for president. US is in the grip of populism (both left-populist Antifa
and right-"blood and soil" nativism), things go backward.

If we get scenario B, we're going to get some form of national single-payer.
If we get A, I'm less certain.

~~~
rootusrootus
I think scenario A is plausible ... but I live in a bubble. I frequently
lament the completely broken insurance system I'm participating in now, where
I have a high deductible plan that expects me to pay for everything up to $6K,
while at the same time completely depriving me of the price information I need
for that to work out in my favor.

The bubble I live in is that I've actually got enough money to pay the out-of-
pocket costs if the insurance company screws me. It won't bankrupt me, at
least not in the near term. But looking outside my reality, there are a huge
number of Americans without anything even approaching that luxury. Especially
younger generations. When I look at the numbers, I think your scenario B looks
a bunch more realistic. Right now I just have political ideology, but I see a
lot of people who have real skin in the game and I wonder how long we can
maintain the status quo before those folks collectively realize just how
numerous they are and how much change they can effect if they try.

~~~
RaceWon
> how long we can maintain the status quo before those folks collectively
> realize just how numerous they are and how much change they can effect if
> they try.

My 2 Cents: America is FAR from Perfect, but do you bench Lebron because he
only won 3 Championships? Change?.. Yeah, sure, some is worth a gamble--But
fer christs sakes you gotta let James start!

------
smackay
This is a bit cliched but does anyone think there should be a set of end of
year predictions made/voted on by everyone on HN ?

It would certainly be a bit more interesting and informed than the average
celebrity blogger predictions that we are usually subjected to.

~~~
alan_wade
Check out [https://www.metaculus.com/](https://www.metaculus.com/)

~~~
cfj
Also [http://longbets.org/](http://longbets.org/)

------
hourislate
That there will only be clean energy because using anything else will cost
more and be disadvantageous. The Countries that move to cheap/free clean
energy will have an advantage of cost in manufacturing, etc.

Electric cars will be the norm, it will cost significantly more to drive an
ICE car.

Air Travel will still be brutal.

Jobs will be more difficult to find and keep for the untrained and uneducated.
Most services will be self serve or accessed remotely with little to no human
help required.

Self Medical Diagnosis will be available to everyone who has a mobile phone
like device. You will have access to all your vitals and through your camera
be able to determine certain ailments reducing doctor visits.

Exoskeletons will replace wheel chairs for certain injuries and conditions.

Affordable Treatments (Stem Cell/Exosomes) will be available for curing,
rejuvenation and general well being.

The rate that processor power/AI/Quantum Computing/Machine Learning/etc is
progressing, will drive more change in the next 10 years than in the last 50.

------
eldavido
Not directly answering the question, but, one I've been thinking about: what
skills/traits allow a person to make such predictions with high accuracy?

One thing is that I think you need a pretty wide set of priors--breadth. Stuff
like history, anthropology, economics, the history of art. Lots of knowledge
about human behavior, politics, culture, stuff like how emotions guide
behavior, etc.

When I look at a typical STEM education, we deliberately don't prioritize this
stuff. We know lots of things about how electrons behave and which sorts of
functions grow the fastest and how cellular mitosis works. Not as much about
why empires fall, the role of greed in political revolutions, or the changing
role of women over the last 500 years. I think this puts HNers (I think STEM
people are probably overrepresented here) at a significant disadvantage at
making these kinds of broad predictions.

The thing we do have going for us is our ability to understand the course
technology is going to take: what's possible, what will and won't work, and
why.

I also wonder whether the people you're around influence your ability to
predict what's next. On one hand, it's a well-established fact in social
science that many social trends, at least in the US (things like marriage and
divorce rates, educational trends, changing attitudes around dating,
purchasing behaviors), start in the upper-middle classes, as they have the
numbers (population) to make real differences in buying habits, politics,
etc., whereas the rich have more money but much smaller population. On the
other hand, the lower classes in the US vastly outnumber what I'd consider a
typical HN reader. Something like 70% of US adults don't even have a
bachelor's degree, and the US median income for an individual is around $40K.
Keep that in mind as you think about this stuff.

One guy I'll point out who's studied this topic (predictions) a lot is Philip
Tetlock
([https://www.sas.upenn.edu/tetlock/](https://www.sas.upenn.edu/tetlock/)).
He's spent much of a long, fruitful academic career studying questions like
whether it's possible for certain people to consistently do better than random
at predicting things, and what sorts of traits make those people better. I
won't try to summarize a 30+ year academic career here other than to say he
does seem to believe it's possible to beat the odds. Good reading; check it
out.

~~~
PurpleRamen
> Not directly answering the question, but, one I've been thinking about: what
> skills/traits allow a person to make such predictions with high accuracy?

The same that make people succesfull at the stockmarket and investments. So
mainly luck with a spot of knowledge and information and many small
investments to get one good hit

------
abhshkdz
\- AR: Handheld devices will make way for wearables with augmented reality
displays. This will largely be led by usability advantages. Like Google Maps
will see a shift towards glasses with augmented reality displays. Think
navigation instructions from Google Maps overlaid on street view-like camera
imagery on a wearable device.

\- Robots: Robot sidekicks, like Vector: [https://www.anki.com/en-
us/vector](https://www.anki.com/en-us/vector), but bigger and more useful,
will become common. Tbh Vector is currently at best a cute and expensive toy.
With progress in AI, specifically at the intersection of language
understanding, computer vision, and robotics, these robots will become easier
to talk to and work with.

\- Self-driving cars: Self-driving cars will be common, with some business
models getting to wider deployment faster than others, for e.g. Waymo, Uber,
Lyft. New set of traffic protocols will likely emerge on 100% self-driven
localities (humans' traffic rules are _extremely_ inefficient for robots) for
faster + safer transport.

\- Space: Space tourism will start to emerge. There will emerge entire
industries supporting this shift -- from ticketing aggregation services (like
Kayak.com, etc. for space) to data services (equivalents of AT&T, TMobile,
etc. for space) to cargo (faster earth-to-earth, earth-to-x), hotels,
hospitals, etc.

~~~
dangerface
[https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/news/orbital_debr...](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/news/orbital_debris.html)

We have filled up our atmosphere with so much junk that space travel may
become limited to our past rather than our future.

------
ksec
Well according to "The Birth & Death of JavaScript" prophecy, we will soon
have war in 2020 all the way to 2025. So far everything in the prophecy has
been true, so I am not sure if I am still alive in 10 years.

[] [https://www.destroyallsoftware.com/talks/the-birth-and-
death...](https://www.destroyallsoftware.com/talks/the-birth-and-death-of-
javascript)

------
brendonjohn
This probably sounds crazy... I think in the next ten years there will be a
cultural shift away from carrying any form of electronics on yourself. That's
including mobile phones and media devices.

~~~
eldavido
One of the things I find most striking when watching old movies is the general
attitude of people toward tech.

If you look at movies from the 70s and 80s, conspicuous display of tech was
common. Look at stereo systems of the time, and how people treated mobile
phones (they were huge and conspicuously displayed). This partially echoes the
"machine age" [1] of the early 20th century, a a time when tech was seen as
"modern" and a force for progress.

Whereas these days, we want things to be light, invisible, and out of the way.
That's a major change in attitude.

I actually feel we might see fewer "screens" in the next few years if the
combination of voice and AI becomes powerful enough that most things can be
done by voice or thought. I think more and more decision-making (things like
which plane to book/flight to take/etc) will be made by automated systems that
know our preferences and we'll be picking from fewer and fewer menus. Sort of
like a human assistant, but available to the masses and more accurate.
Google's Duplex is a big step in this direction. The key is ceding more
decision-making authority to software.

In any case, I wouldn't be surprised if we all just have earphones, either
over-the-ear, or implanted in our heads, in 15 years. The broader theme is
that I think we'll want things to be invisible rather than visible.

I also think you're right that the rich will want less of this stuff. There's
already a huge socioeconomic difference in how people use tech. Look at how a
rich family eats in the US today vs. a poor family. Rich families put their
phones away, poor families spend the entire dinner posting stuff on Snap. Just
walk into a burger king vs. a fine dining restaurant to see that trend in
action.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Machine_Age](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Machine_Age)

~~~
edanm
This reminds of an interesting story from Robert Caro's great biography of
Robert Moses (The Power Broker). Very paraphrased from memory, but:

Robert Moses built large parts of New York City, including a lot of its
roads/infrastructure. When Moses was growing up, cars were very new, and a
luxury item. Driving through a scenic route was a very fun experience for most
people. Therefore, Moses built the roads to emphasize these scenic routes.

This later became problematic, as he kept doing it well into the age when
being in a car was considered a nuisance, rather than an attraction.

------
scarface74
Just for reference...

Check out:

[http://tenyearsago.io/](http://tenyearsago.io/)

And see how little things have actually changed in the last ten years.

I have nothing to do with this site. I found out about it via a Show HN a
while back.

------
samblr
Robo-servants at home.

Imagine not doing any mundane tasks at home (cooking, cleaning etc)

On the worse side : if there are robos at home. There will be sure outside in
streets too. So we will have to figure out new jobs for ourselves.

~~~
eloff
People have been predicting this for 50 years. It turns out it's a really hard
problem - I'm comfortable saying it's still much more than ten years away. We
could possibly get fusion power before we get this the way things are going.

~~~
adamnemecek
Progress is exponential. Right now a lot is possible but maybe not
commercially viable.

------
Jaruzel
There will be another monolithic internet company doing shady things with our
data that we all complain about.

~~~
adamnemecek
Seems like regulation is around the corner.

------
alan_wade
VR will replace monitors, AR will replace smartphones (at least somewhat),
electric self driving cars become normal, Elon Musk's spaceship makes it to
Mars, some huge AI breakthrough (that none of us did predict).

More Facebook/Google sized companies. Hopefully, a startup that makes medicine
suck a lot less than it currently does.

------
nuguy
People will become even more absorbed in their electronics and our culture and
social lives will continue to change because of it.

Right now we only unlock a tiny part of the potential of our electronics. This
is because your system of input is very limited. The bottleneck is not your
brain or the computer but the link between them. We will have very simple
devices for input that allow you to communicate with your computers with
incredible speed. This comment is taking like five minutes to type with my
thumbs. You could make a device with today’s technology that would allow it to
be done in seconds. And it would be cheap. Better than a keyboard and totally
mobile.

Imagine that and then include improvements in Image and sound delivery. Then
throw in full internet access everywhere for everyone via starlink. It’s going
to make our phone habits look very quaint.

------
tmaly
Here are my wild guesses

Automation is not spreading the wealth, I think you will see even less of a
middle class and more extreme divisions of wealth between the classes.

The corporation seems to be the new power structure like the church use to be.
You will see more concentration of power and less accountability with this new
power structure.

In the US you will see a transformation of the demographic shift accelerate.
You may also see a change in politics with a move more towards policies you
see in Europe. However they will still not work due to the change in the power
structures.

National debts will accelerate to make up for short falls in pension funding
and retirement plans like social security. How this ultimately plays out, I
have no idea.

------
michalskop
Being from Europe: Many more tourists from Asia, beginning of touristic boom
from Africa. Many Europeans (and Americans) will be priced out from vacations
they can enjoy now.

------
adamnemecek
It’s a stretch but urban farms: malls will be turned into farms. The produce
will be on racks so you might have 20 layers. Right now like half of all
produce spoils. This way you can also deliver fresh produce the day it will be
consumed. You can deliver the perfect combination of water and nutrients for
plant growth. No pests, transportation, weather damage etc. it’s gonna be big.

~~~
sintaxi
Very interesting prediction. Anything in particular lead you to this apart
from the discovery of grow towers?

~~~
adamnemecek
Minimization and cheapness of sensors and small computers. Also malls going
away. And willingness of investors to invest into non-traditional tech fields.

------
RickJWagner
The stock market(s) will have crashed. And recovered nicely.

20 year olds will be extremely socially liberal. Today's 20 year olds
(30-something then) will begin criticizing them and will be trending more
conservative.

American Democrats will hold some extremely progressive planks, but will also
have returned to center to broaden the base. Republicans will have less
religious planks and will have made significant inroads with minority
communities.

We'll have a mix of autonomous and traditional automobiles, but they will be
owned only by those outside of big cities. The rural poor will have some nice
rides (ICE machines), the rich will have self-driving luxury mobiles. Gasoline
will be silly expensive.

There will be fewer wars and more international companies. Capitalism will
become infused (in one form or other) into every economy. European-style
socialism will also be omni-present.

Young folks will be engrossed in ever-more outrageous ultimate sports. Old
folks will take great interest in geneology and the weather. Everyone will
claim they know what's best to deal with the global climate.

------
eptcyka
My predictions for the next 10 years of our daily lives are useless.

------
vowelless
You ask for prediction, not wishes. So here goes:

We will have a major recession, much bigger impact than the previous one. This
will curtail development. It’s possible climate effects will continue to
become more severe. This could lead to human displacement in heavily populated
Asian coastal towns. Will be compounded due to the recession.

Left wing and right wing polarization will grow and be compounded due to the
above points. I don’t think there will be civil wars, but could be a tough
situation in some parts of the world, especially Europe.

Technologically? I don’t think fully self driving cars will be a thing in 10
years. We could see regulations passed regarding social media companies. It
could curtail the growth of a Facebook disruptor. We could see some changes in
the financial industry due to the recession. But that still won’t change much
for the industry.

What I wish:

Self driving cars. A Facebook disruptor. Mainstream crypto currency.

~~~
nuguy
What is going to cause the next recession?

~~~
briandear
Wishful thinking if you listen to Bill Maher:
[https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/economy-
bill-m...](https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/economy-bill-maher-
recession-trump/)

------
CM30
Based on where I'm living now (the UK):

Brexit will probably be pretty rough on society, though it won't be quite the
disaster some people think it'll be. Think less 'mass starvation/riots/panic'
and more 'bad tax deals and export limits when it comes to dealing with the
EU' (plus maybe a few legal issues when UK and EU law inevitably differ).

Facebook may not weather the storm. Twitter and Reddit are probably gonna go
the same way as Digg and Myspace too.

Lootboxes are going to cause all kinds of legal changes related to the gaming
industry, and likely some large fines for companies involved. Certain games
with them will probably be discontinued in many regions.

Social media sites will get even more crap for their privacy violations, and
the lawsuits and fines are probably coming there too. Also, all those sites
'complying' with GDPR by offering a banner that says 'accept all cookies or
get lost' are probably in for a nasty surprise.

I have no idea what web design/development trends will come about, but part of
me thinks flat design could be here for a while now.

Authoritarianism and far right/far left politics will continue to rise, as
existing parties obliviously ignore the issues that led to it. Chances of war
are mixed though; don't suspect a World War 3 is anywhere on the horizon.

Trump will be outright moderate compared to some of the people elected in the
next ten years.

Criminals and extremist nutcases will figure out that cyber security + the
internet of things + other technology is a recipe for disaster, and exploit it
to all hell. The results will probably mean far more government scrutinty over
security holes in tech products.

Self driving cars will not take over. Human drivers will also not get
replaced. No politician or political party would risk electoral suicide by
doing anything there.

AI won't change much. It's coming, but it's just not there yet to lead to any
Jetsons style sci-fi future or what not.

VR will get a bit less niche, but AR may catch on a bit more. The applications
for that have been advertised a lot better with stuff like Pokemon GO,
Snapchat/Instagram/whatever filters, the Nintendo 3DS, etc.

There's a decent chance the UK railways will be renationalised, since Labour
keep crowing about the idea. If so, there's also a decent chance they may
realise said chance has its downsides as well as upsides.

Wages for software engineering will probably decline a bit, as more people
enter the field in hopes of Silicon Valley style lifestyles. Eventually, it
could go from doctor/lawyer level salaries to something closer to office
worker ones.

And that's about all I can think of right now.

Edit: Oh, and it's possible high costs of living will make marriages and
relationships a necessity for many younger people now. Maybe we may even see
the social status there flipped, with those who don't need to marry/live with
someone else getting more respect than those who do.

------
dv_dt
In ten years we will know one way or another if short term profits matter more
to us than the long term prosperity of our civilization. And not just
individuals, but how our overall system of collective government responds to
individuals at a national and global level will be answered in the test.

~~~
sintaxi
What did you purchase today and from whom did you purchase it? << there is
your answer.

"Never mind what they are selling, its what your buying" \--FUGAZI

~~~
briandear
Quoting Fugazi in HN officially wins the internet for today! Such an apt quote
though!

------
mchannon
Call me crazy, but I think H.G. Wells' prediction of the human race diverging
into two is less than half as crazy as it was 10 years ago.

One race, indoors-oriented, tribal, authoritarian, amoral, warlike,
domineering.

Another race, outdoors-oriented, disorganized, vain, self-obsessed,
subjugated.

I bet you will have minimal difficulty envisioning every person you know and
which track they're on.

That's more of a 1000-year prediction than a 10-year one.

 _The Time Machine_ predicted spinning "history rings" that produced sound
(CD's), and Wells' other works were equally prescient considering they came
from the 1800's. Morlocks and Eloi were dismissed as simply wrong, but perhaps
they were merely further ahead than the critics could see.

~~~
PopeDotNinja
> the human race diverging into two is less than half as crazy as it was 10
> years ago

Any thoughts on how that would happen? Genetic engineering? Divergent
populations? Earthbound and formerly Earthbound?

~~~
mchannon
It's not would happen, it's is happening.

The difference is preexisting, but only beginning to get expressed. Some
people resist authority and don't believe what they're told, and some people
crave authority and want to be told they're right. It's not an insult; it's
actually probably an evolutionarily superior approach to tend toward the
latter. Tribes have distinct advantages.

Increased CO2 levels, indoors and out, are giving rise to increased levels of
Oxytocin in everybody's body. It's more a tribal hormone than a bonding
hormone. This is where the increased expression is coming from, I believe.

------
MalevolentFlip
I hope I'm not a crackpot, but I have a really pessimistic outlook.

The increase in wealth disparity coupled with centralization of corporate
power will cause a proportionally large increase in poverty. You'll either be
fortunate enough to have a job (where your hours will rise, due to heavier
competition - those at the top will say to hell with the research claiming
productivity has an optimum with respect to hours devoted, just like we say to
hell with the research claiming we're destroying the planet) or be forced to
forage or pillage for your meals.

On another note, marriage rates will continue to decline, divorce rates will
continue to rise. The "nuclear family" will therefore become increasingly rare
(Why settle when you can swipe?). Suicide rates will increase. Maybe this
keeps overpopulation in check. Maybe there will just be more single-parent
"households". At any rate, I predict that there will be a much higher
incidence of "many unrelated members of the same sex uncomfortably sharing a
living space."

Those are both kind of high level, but as far as daily life goes, I think a
"social credit system" will either exist globally or see increased adoption
outside of the current canonical example(s).

I honestly hope I'm wrong. I hope that the internet dating paradigm doesn't
ruin our species. I hope that we can maintain steady employment rates and keep
the population at a healthy rate. That's just not what my first guess would
be.

~~~
dawidw
I don't understand why comments like above get minuses.

If you don't agree with the idea, just put that in comment. But giving minuses
because someone has different thoughts.

I understand minuses when somebody is just talking things completely not true
like that there never was World War II or X-Rays are safe for you.

Future is by definition not deterministic so everybody may have own
imagination. And by giving minuses you're discouraging the people with sharing
their thoughts with you.

At least explain you're giving minus.

