
Japan plans new driver's license system for elderly as accidents surge - hhs
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/06/11/national/japan-plans-new-drivers-license-system-elderly-accidents-surge/#.XQFIh8opCf0
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diveanon
My grandmother in the US has severe dementia and an active drivers license.

My grandfather doesn't let her drive, but legally there is nothing stopping
her. It terrifies me when I go to visit their retirement village because any
car I pass could be a similar story.

Unfortunately there is no solution because no politician in Florida is ever
going to propose legislation that limits the elderly in any way.

~~~
sandworm101
Want to be really scared? Look at how many blind people are out there driving.
Being legally blind does not automatically mean you forfeit your license. Of
course, this is florida. Fully blind people (aka "black-blind") are allowed to
buy, own, and use guns.

~~~
masterofpuppets
Read up on Carey McWilliams, he uses a sound based targeting system, is blind
and is a really accomplished marksman and hunter with the technology.

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dfxm12
_In the wake of a slew of fatal accidents involving elderly drivers, the
government plans to create a new driver’s license system that limits senior
citizens to cars with safety features such as automatic brakes._

This seems like a feel good story for the papers and a way to further penalize
drivers who don't have the proper car for their license, but I wonder how this
works in practice to actually _prevent_ accidents, given the parameters of
what's being reported. On your 75th birthday, do they repossess your current
car and make you buy a new one?

Otherwise, there are still going to be a lot of dangerous autos on the road.

~~~
Analemma_
It will probably work, thanks to some Japan-specific quirks: every two years,
cars are subject to a "tax and inspection" fee that can run up to $1500, which
causes a lot of people to just buy a new car instead when it comes around.
Also, Japanese tax law encourages frequently buying company cars and letting
employees use them as their main vehicle, in lieu of additional salary. So
Japan already gets old cars off the road very quickly.

(Note: I don't think this is a great system, and it's pretty obviously a
hidden subsidy for the Japanese auto industry, but it does have the helpful
side effect of ensuring that almost all cars on the road in Japan are fairly
new and have the newest features)

~~~
Scoundreller
Seems to have worked great for the Japanese auto industry: they focussed on
resale value (aka: long term reliability).

~~~
azernik
Specifically, most Japanese used cars are exported abroad, since the
inspection criteria are quite stringent when it comes to condition and
features. So the cars are basically broken in by Japanese drivers, and then
live the rest of their lives in Indonesia or China.

~~~
jacquesm
Or in Western Europe. I imported two top of the line cars for a very low fee
in the past from Japan. Both had super low mileage and were a fraction of what
I'd pay for the same vehicles here. The websites typically look super sketchy
but they're legit, you may have to twiddle headlights and other details to get
it to pass inspection locally.

Important to check if there have been recalls that have not been applied to
the car you are interested in and to make sure that you have a good idea of
the tax and registration fees in your intended country of destination before
pulling the trigger.

Luxury European cars (MB, BMW, Audi) in Japan are typically LHD so no problem
there, but beware of buying Japanese vehicles there, there is a good chance
they are RHD.

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sandworm101
>> In both cases, it is believed that the drivers may have mistaken the
throttle for the break pedal.

No. That is either a translation error or an overly-polite way of putting it.
They did not "mistake" one for the other. Loss of coordination in the legs is
a normal symptom of old age. It is why old people shuffle, why they use
walkers. They did not make the mental mistake of forgetting which pedal is
which. They suffer from a physical condition, one unrelated to cognition, that
limits their ability to quickly and accurately move their feet.

Automatic brakes might help, but won't necessarily protect every kid walking
through a parking lot from being trampled by someone accidental slamming on
the accelerator. What might be needed is a combination of automatic brakes and
throttle limiters, devices that interpret someone slamming on an accelerator
as a mistaken attempt to stop.

Similarly, rapid acceleration in reverse should be disabled. That has killed
in many parking lots. So too rapid acceleration with the parking brake
applied.

~~~
avar
> [...]throttle limiters, devices that interpret someone slamming on an
> accelerator as a mistaken attempt to stop[...]

If there's a perceived need to install that sort of device the driver in
question simply shouldn't be driving.

Installing this sort of thing is just a recipe for disaster, now they'll cause
some horrible accident on a highway instead as they legitimately slam the
accelerator on an on-ramp, which the car will then auto-translate to slamming
on the brakes.

~~~
thebooktocome
Perfectly healthy people without dementia have confused the brake and
acceleration pedals. It's a design problem, not a competency problem.

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009%E2%80%9311_Toyota_vehic...](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009%E2%80%9311_Toyota_vehicle_recalls)

Maybe your point is that people shouldn't be driving in general?

~~~
avar
No, the premise of this discussion is not that humans are infallible up to a
certain age, but rather that at some point the elderly become more prone to
causing accidents.

I'm pointing out that what might sound like a sensible mitigation for that can
backfire. The control mechanisms of cars should not be messed with lightly.

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albertgoeswoof
Could we get a filter for HN that drops articles with hyperbole in the title?
E.g. Surge, slew, flock etc. usually indicate bias.

The article is based around this:

> there were 460 fatal traffic accidents in Japan last year caused by drivers
> aged 75 or over. The proportion of such accidents among all fatal accidents
> increased from 8.7 percent in 2008 to 14.8 percent in 2018.

But what it doesn’t say is how many fatal accidents there were overall in 2008
(what if the total number of accidents for the age group has gone down, and
the number of accidents in other age groups has just gone down by more), nor
does it talk about the number of accidents in any other year (what if 2008 was
an anomaly). There’s no way of knowing if this % change is statistically
significant.

It also doesn’t say whether the apparent rise in this age group is caused by
the age group being older, or if there are other factors at play (eg are older
people more likely to drive older cars?)

I don’t understand how anyone can form an opinion with articles like this,
there’s no fact base to start from and any discussion is moot.

~~~
diminoten
The way to do it is to assume it's correct for the duration of the article.
That way you can think about it in the way the author intended, but afterwords
you're not holding on to a fact or conclusion that isn't actually true.

Basically, play by the author's rules so you can benefit from the article, but
follow up with your own bit of research to ensure the author's premise was
sound. If it is, keep the information. If it's not, move on with your life.

------
yason
My grandad luckily fell, broke his hips, and become hospitalised until his
death before he managed to drive over any innocent pedestrians or crash into
other cars besides when parking.

I'd venture to suggest retaking the standard driving test at 65, 70, and 75,
and then every two years if an elder wishes to retain his license. You can
only figure out if someone is fit for driving by observing how he drives. A
doctor can't do it from his office, and relatives are too close. An
independent, objective driving test examiner would fail or pass elder people
by the same criteria he fails or passes young new drivers straight from the
driving school.

Basically, anyone on the public roads should be fit for passing a driving test
at any time, the elderly people included.

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thrower123
Massachusetts lets you turn in the driver's license of people with dementia,
which is good. However, if you want them to then have a non-driver's state
identification, that is a whole separate process. One of my coworkers just
went through a Kafka-esque process that chewed up a whole day at the DMV where
he turned in his elderly mother's license, then was unable to get the other ID
because this nonagenarian didn't have a copy of her birth certificate, from
some rural county in the South, where the original was destroyed because the
courthouse burned down decades ago, and they wouldn't accept the just-turned-
in driver's license as proof of her identity.

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RappingBoomer
if the elderly cause more accidents, then why are their insurance rates lower
than for young people?

~~~
spamizbad
My guess: they account for miles driven. If the elderly are driving less
frequently and for shorter distances you can probably assume no long daily
commutes during rush hour, and less driving during evenings and inclement
weather when accidents are likely to occur.

Here's some data on the subject matter:
[https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm](https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm)

65+ drive roughly the same amount as 16-19 year olds. Driving peaks in the
35-54 cohort and drops sharply from there. I imagine drivers who are pushing
80 are driving significantly less than their cohort overall.

~~~
filoleg
I agree with your reasoning, but the comparison to 16-19 year olds in the last
paragraph doesn't really make sense to me. If both groups are equally
dangerous on the road and drive about the same amount, why are insurance rates
for 16-19 year olds (talking about the US, because that's what I have the
context for) are through the roof, unlike the elderly?

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sergers
In BC Canada, you dont need a medical exam for license till you are 80!

~~~
xxpor
In the US, you never need one ever.

~~~
brianwawok
Various states have various requirements. For example mine requires an eye
test.

~~~
xxpor
I think every state requires an eye test, but that's at every age.

