
Coronavirus information and extenuating circumstances policy - DyslexicAtheist
https://www.airbnb.com/help/article/2701/coronavirus-information-and-extenuating-circumstances-policy
======
evilnames
Airbnb, and others, cancellation policies will be a major reason for the
spread of this virus. The sunk cost fallacy is alive and well here, people
don't want to lose money just because they feel sick even though they know
they shouldn't go when not feeling well. I think at this time the travel
industry needs to stand up and relax it's policies even further.

Airbnb will not refund you a stay unless your flight has been cancelled by the
airline. Unfortunately the airlines are giving options right now, Delta for
example let's you rebook or get refunds to some countries that are trying to
shut down this virus at it's source. But not feeling safe, along with being
given a refund on a nonrefundable ticket does not matter to Airbnb at all. My
recommendation is if you have to travel in the next three months to somewhere
in Asia or the Mediterranean is to make sure your booking is fully refundable
or get in contact with your host prior to booking and see how leniant they
are.

If you thought you could get trip insurance to cover the risk you are also
going to be in trouble. Your trip insurance will not cover pandemics, read the
fine print.

~~~
Shivetya
The major reason is far too many people exhibit an exaggerated state of self
entitlement which they use to excuse their actions including those which put
others at risk. Some will do it just to spite others, some will do it out
ignorance. We just have so many people who have the means to travel that you
cannot properly contain any outbreak so you do the best to mitigate the impact

The end result usually is the same, someone else will pay. Which means
business big and small for which some litigant finds a twist which a jury is
sympathetic to.

~~~
mlthoughts2018
I think you mean _corporations_ display an exaggerated sense of self-
entitlement, and by not making full refunds easy and well-understood, they
create these negative externalities.

Asking individuals to bear the financial risk related to these types of
emergencies seems wrong to me on all levels, moral, pragmatism, effectiveness,
social fairness, etc.

These types of risks should be borne by corporations in the form of strictly
less profit for executives and shareholders. Not by raising prices, not by
cutting staff, not by reducing employee benefits. These are risks that have to
absorbed by classes of people with extreme financial reserves to cushion the
blow, not by classes of people without those means.

~~~
maxerickson
The costs of the cancellations may exceed the profits of the company (In which
case it's still appropriate for investors to take the loss, I'm just pointing
out that there's a wider range of possibilities).

Or the pricing of refundable tickets vs non-refundable tickets. It turns out
if you agree to take on the risk of cancellation, most corporations are
willing to give you a lower price on the ticket. Constraining the conditions
that they can factor into non-refundable tickets _will impact prices_ , so you
can't just ignore consumer behavior, which for things like airplane tickets is
to pay as little as possible...

~~~
mlthoughts2018
> “ It turns out if you agree to take on the risk of cancellation”

This is a common fallacy that we can use the pricing mechanism to account for
the risk. But whether it’s food poisoning (cheaper prices for expired goods),
labor externalities (cheaper prices for goods made with slave / child /
exploitative labor), or geopolitical risks (cheaper prices for travel that can
be cancelled for reasons that regular citizens simply cannot adequately
prepare for), across the board it’s a failed idea.

The information asymmetries and burdens are simply too lopsided against
regular consumers. Pricing as information aggregation (thus reflecting correct
understanding of risks impounded in prices) is not a thing. It is theorized
but fails to exist.

And risks of insolvency are far worse for individuals than for corporations,
on multiple levels.

~~~
maxerickson
I'm not suggesting the pricing mechanism can be used to fully account for the
risk, I'm suggesting that it isn't simply a matter of banning certain
contractual conditions, that it is prudent to also consider the inevitable
increase in prices that will accompany some of those actions. If you are
comfortable with the higher prices, fine. As I point out in my other comment,
real world behavior suggests a preference for low prices.

I'm not arguing against regulation, I'm arguing for regulation that
acknowledges that certain regulations have an obvious impact on pricing.

There's plenty of middle ground. Bed and breakfast regulation could include a
provision allowing the government to make public health the higher priority
and require refunds during some declared period of time, and let operators set
their own terms otherwise.

~~~
mlthoughts2018
> “ that it is prudent to also consider the inevitable increase in prices that
> will accompany some of those actions. If you are comfortable with the higher
> prices, fine.”

I addressed this in my original comment above. These risks must be borne by
shareholders and executives _and not passed on to customers or employees._

Price increases to maintain the same level of profitability is inherently
_predatory_. Rather, it’s simply a cost of doing business borne by the
corporation and its shareholders. Airline prices are not higher in response to
the airlines bearing the cost of cancellation risks. Instead, airline profits
taken by executive bonuses, equity, c-suite perks, and shareholder returns are
just lower, while prices, wages and benefits remain the same. Any other
outcome where the corporation tries to deflect its responsibility to bear that
cost without impacting consumers or employees is immoral predatory behavior
that must become illegal, like lobbying, deceptive pricing, price gouging,
extensive contractual fine print that consumers are not equipped to read or
understand, offering consumers tiers of lower pricing that does not include
necessary protections, layoffs or benefit cuts to preserve executive
compensation hundreds of multiples above average employees, etc.

If this causes a business to fold, it only means they did not have a viable
business. Consumers don’t want the product. Figure out how to bear the cost of
these risks or else you haven’t got a business.

------
jtdev
Shocking to see that sunk cost fallacy and groupthink are driving decision
making rather than sound science and medicine.

Here’s a rather ironic example: HIMSS 2020, a conference of ~45000 attendees
from 90+ countries is still scheduled to go forward at Orange County
Convention Center March 9-13 - even as major participants withdraw from the
event.

I was actually blocked by HIMSS PR folks on Twitter for inquiring about their
preparedness plan... which is inadequate to say the least. To top it off, HHS
Secretary Alex Azar is a keynote speaker, so now it’s also a huge political
can of worms.

~~~
ghaff
What sorts of preparations would you consider adequate--other than not holding
the event? While some things are being cancelled or postponed, the fact is
that there are events and travel still happening more or less as usual around
most of the world. People are still taking public transit. People are still
going into offices. Sporting events are going on. I honestly have trouble
distinguishing most of the events that have been cancelled (outside of Asia)
from those that are going on.

For example, there was just a ~45,000 person security conference held in SF
last week.

~~~
pbourke
It’s simple: large, non-essential public gatherings need to be cancelled.
Especially if they involve substantial travel from attendees.

It’s fiddling while Rome has caught fire to do anything else.

------
entwife
I'm traveling in Seattle, where as of this morning the health department has
confirmed 6 cases of coronavirus of which only one was a recent traveler to
China.[0] I would appreciate the ability to cancel a reservation if I feel
sick, especially at a reservation with a shared bathroom.

[0]
[https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus](https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus)

~~~
PeterisP
If you're from Seattle, then the recent research of Trevor Bedford (Fred
Hutchinson Cancer Research Center) and the Seattle Flu Study group might be
relevant - they've posted a quick summary on
[https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233971278735761409](https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233971278735761409)
while there's still the weekend; but in essence they've done genetic analysis
of the Covid-19 strains in Washington sate, and it suggests the following
worrying things:

1\. their analysis (virus mutations / differences in individual patients?)
suggests it has been spreading in Washington state for some 6 weeks already;

2\. "Our best current expectation is a few hundred current infections" (that's
about WA only! not the entire USA) - it's not confirmed and identified cases,
but the number suggested by virus variation; it's not like there's 6 patients
who have all been "imported" or form a single clear cluster, they have been
infected by some patients who have not been identified, have not been
isolated, and have been spreading it in the cummunity.

To me the situation in Washington State seems very similar to where Italy was
a week ago.

~~~
selim_tiotoys
Why add the word "worrying" to your statement - just leave it neutral. No need
to make people panic. It only leads to irrational behavior.

For context - what might have happened in WA could actually be a positive spin
on the story. It would mean that the virus has been spreading for much longer
than anticipated and the number of infected people might be 100x or 1000x the
reported number. It's "positive" as it pushes the denominator up quite
significantly, which would mean that the fatality rate is much closer to a
"normal" Influenza than anything else.

If their profiling turns out to be correct - we're in a "much better
situation" than we thought.

------
agumonkey
Where's the alexa plugin that infers your covid19 status based on the sound of
your voice, breathing, coughing and internet queries for medicine and things
you can binge watch for a month ?

~~~
DyslexicAtheist
> things you can binge watch for a month?

this should get you through March :) ...

The Seventh Seal (1957)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0050976/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0050976/)

The Last Man on Earth (1964)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0058700/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0058700/)

The Omega Man (1971)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0067525/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0067525/)

The Andromeda Strain (1971)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0066769/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0066769/)

Dawn of the Dead (1978)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0077402/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0077402/)

Outbreak (1995)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0114069/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0114069/)

12 Monkeys (1995)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0114746/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0114746/)

Cabin Fever (2002)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0303816/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0303816/)

Resident Evil (2002)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120804/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120804/)

28 Days Later (2003)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0289043/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0289043/)

Children of Men (2006)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0206634/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0206634/)

28 Weeks Later (2007)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0463854/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0463854/)

I Am Legend (2007)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0480249/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0480249/)

Blindness (2008)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0861689/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0861689/)

Carriers (2009)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0806203/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0806203/)

Daybreakers (2009)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0433362/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0433362/)

Black Death (2010)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1181791/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1181791/)

Contagion (2011)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1598778/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1598778/)

Maze Runner: The Death Cure (2011)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4500922/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4500922/)

World War Z (2013)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0816711/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0816711/)

Maggie (2015)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1881002/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1881002/)

Train to Busan (2016)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5700672/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5700672/)

The Girl With All The Gifts (2016)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4547056/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4547056/)

93 Days (2016)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5305246/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5305246/)

Cargo (2017)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3860916/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3860916/)

It Comes At Night (2017)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4695012/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4695012/)

Rabid (2019)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5628902/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5628902/)

The Hot Zone (2019)
[https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4131818/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4131818/)

edit: There is actually a Wikipedia page for the genre (duh!):
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Films_about_viral_out...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Films_about_viral_outbreaks)

~~~
Thorrez
Is watching 1 movie/day considered a binge?

~~~
pensatoio
Apparently, I've been doing it all wrong.

------
koheripbal
I remember during the SARS outbreak, one of the most common vectors for mass-
contamination was hotel usage.

I'm going to stay away from Hotels and airbnbs for the next 18 months until
the vaccine is ready.

~~~
msoad
I was told we were not successful developing vaccines for any of previous
Coronaviruses unfortunately

~~~
londons_explore
Have we tried though? How about the old-fashioned techniques of "culture a
load of the virus, then either cook it or put it in a nuclear reactor for a
bit to kill it, and then inject it into people"?

~~~
simonh
Yes a lot of effort has gone into developing treatments. The term vaccine is
often used in the press to refer to all sorts of different treatments, such as
anti-viral drugs. Actual vaccines are tricky, we know a lot about influenzas
for example and have a wide variety of the viruses to study and experiment
with and understand how to develop vaccines against new strains pretty
quickly. There has never been a successful vaccine against Coronavirus family
viruses though, they seem a lot harder to target effectively.

~~~
learc83
We had candidates for SARS but it was contained before trials began.

Coronavirus is generally too mild and there are too many varieties to worry
about developing vaccines for them. It's not that they are particularly hard
to develop a vaccine for.

------
jpxw
If you’re in a major city, this is the time to start taking preventative
measures. Avoid mass gatherings and public transport if you can.

~~~
Retric
There are 70 known cases of Coronavirus in the US. Making precautions at this
point is reasonable, going to extremes is not.

My suggestion is to prepare for the possibility of major disruption starting 2
to 6 months from now. Avoid non refundable trips etc.

~~~
adnzzzzZ
[https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-
us.html](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html) There are
only 70 known cases because the US has only tested 472 people. Compare this to
South Korea which has tested 90k+ people or Italy which has tested 9.5k
people. The virus is well spread around the world and you shouldn't base your
decisions around the confirmed number of cases.

~~~
sersi
Where can I find how many people have been tested per country? This seems to
be critical information yet I don't find an easy source of information.

~~~
adnzzzzZ
[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/)
This is not updated often so it's a few days behind current numbers. But
basically it comes from CDC's and health ministries of other countries.

