

Ask HN: How much revenue can cars potentially  make for Google? - lacero

I just read about the Alan Mulally Google appointment and can&#x27;t help but wonder if automobiles are a serious play for Google. I suspect that Google&#x27;s car plan may turn out to be  more like air traffic control and computer assisted flight control. A sort of transportation &quot;internet&quot; for assisting drivers to move more safely and efficiently.<p>Out of curiosity, how much could Google potentially make a year in revenue if through consumer sales and government contracts they are able to install software that assists the drivers of cars? Billions, millions, or red numbers? This is all speculation but I&#x27;m thinking things like automatic accident avoidance, vehicle deceleration, evasive maneuvering and traffic control without traditional traffic lights can all be greatly enhanced by computer networks and AI.
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panarky
Assume 60 million cars produced each year, 10% with Google autonomous driving
software and sensors, with a $1,000 per car licensing fee. That's a $6 billion
per year business with very high margins.

If net margins are 50% and this division commands the same multiple as Google
itself, then the division would be worth about $100 billion. That's about 25%
of Google's current market value.

Today, there's talk of Uber being a $200 billion company[0]. Google Ventures
is an investor in Uber, and if they could combine the autonomous vehicle tech
with the Uber network, what would that be worth?

[0] [http://www.businessweek.com/videos/2014-06-13/uber-could-
be-...](http://www.businessweek.com/videos/2014-06-13/uber-could-be-
worth-200-billion-volpi)

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informatimago
Infinite! Well, almost. Imagine, people spend on average 10 hours a week in
their car. They don't have to drive the googlecar, so it can be fitted with
screens instead of windshields, and you can push onto them 10 hours a week of
endoctrinement^W advertisement (for "free" driving)! Priceless!

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amarcus
IMHO - Google's role is to get people to spend more time online. They make
their money from search...so, the more people online, the more money they
make. Phones, glasses and cars are all designed around this objective. If you
aren't driving a car, then that is more time that you are spending the net and
thus, more money that they can make from you.

