

Predicting the Future of Computing - klwolk
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/12/06/science/20111206-technology-timeline.html

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caller9
Too bad you can't move Mobile Wallet back to the time when it became common in
Japan.

The AI singularity will probably end with a space-faring AI that leaves our
asses here. It will be too smart to share this knowledge with us before it
leaves. We will be a concern that may inhibit these plans, not much more.

However, if we mistakenly make something that closely mimics the human brain,
it may not end up growing exponentially before it decrees that further self
improvement is unnecessary for world domination then also goes nuts and turns
all Skynet on us.

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vetler
Here's my prediction: the future won't be like we imagine it.

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erkin_unlu
AI future timeline is scary, why would people are so arrogant that we are so
sure that we can give all the power to machines and then we can control them
all we want?

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loup-vaillant
We don't control the AI. If we manage to build a self-improving AI (first hard
problem), it _will_ take over the world, and there will be _nothing_ we can do
about it. Assuming of course that the Intelligence Explosion scenario is
correct. I believe it to be likely.

Now the second, crucial, super-hard problem is making sure the AI is
_Friendly_. Even harder, define what "Friendly" could possibly mean. It's a
Literal Genie you have there, be careful what you ask for. A tiny mistake may
mean we're all doomed.

Oh, and we're not sure at all it will _actually_ go well. But it might be
worth a shot. (What is _not_ worth a shot is launching an AI first, and
checking it is a Good™ one after the fact. You need to be super-certain of
your design before you launch it.)

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iwwr
I haven't read a convincing argument on how such an entity would actually take
over. She would have to be endowed with physical means, not just intelligence.
She'd have to have humans do her bidding to a great extent and for a long
time.

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loup-vaillant
<http://yudkowsky.net/singularity/aibox>

Basically, all the AI needs is a text terminal interface. From then it will
almost certainly convince an operator to let it out and take over vulnerable
computers on the internet. Then it will have much more humans at its disposal
to do its bidding.

Even if you're not as certain as I am, keep in mind that Eliezer Yudowsky is
but a human (though a very smart one), yet he did got out of the box. I find
hard to imagine that anything smarter than him couldn't do the same.

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iwwr
"keep in mind that Eliezer Yudowsky is but a human (though a very smart one),
yet he did got out of the box"

Not quite sure what this means. Any references?

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loup-vaillant
Edit: you're right, I'm not clear. An experiment was made, in which Eliezer
and some other person talked during 2 hours on IRC. Eliezer played the AI, and
the other played the Guardian. The AI is supposed to convince the Guardian to
"let it out" by the end of those 2 hours. No word play or such, the Gardian
has to make a _concious_ decision for the AI to win. The result is to be
acknowledged publicly by PGP signed e-mail by the losing party. Eliezer won
twice, over people who publicly stated that there was no way an AI would
convinced them. Even though they could just say no, they didn't, and later
sent the e-mail acknowledging they let the AI out.

Relevant links:

<http://yudkowsky.net/singularity/aibox>

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_box> <http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/AI-
box_experiment>

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brohee
"2080 Bicentennial Man"

Didn't occur to them than that person would have to be 131 year old now....

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nazgulnarsil
lol at any prediction after AI.

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david927
Where can we vote that none of this will happen this way?

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Lambdanaut
The bell curve for educated guesses on things that can't be known for sure
usually settles on something close to correct. Maybe they're onto something!
(This at least usually works with guessing the amount of candy in a jar)

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alexholehouse
You've hit the nail on the head though - "educated". Perhaps unfair, but I
find it hard to believe that people making guesses on these items could be
genuinely educated regarding the issues surrounding them.

I completely include myself in this category - what do I know about the
logistic changes needed to change manufacturing for some of these devices, or
market demand etc. I can speculate regarding the technology, but even then
it's just speculation based on a totally superficial understanding. It's so
easy to ignore things like FDA approval, production scale up, resource
shortages etc.

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rrrazdan
Is it just me or is everyone overtly optimistic.

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loup-vaillant
Think of each prediction as "I estimate there's 50% chances of that happening
by that date". Now, there's so many predictions that they do add up to a very
detailed, and therefore improbable, story.

It may explain a good deal of perceived optimism.

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g3orge
It's constantly updated. Nice.

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chunky1994
This is quite a decent prediction, except for the Sci-fi in the AI future
timeline!

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keymone
a million lemmings can't be wrong, yeah

