

Android Has Market Share, But Windows Phone Has Mindshare  - aespinoza
http://moconews.net/article/419-npd-android-has-market-share-but-windows-phone-has-mindshare/

======
kemayo
The article doesn't say, and I didn't see a link to the report which might
have provided useful information...

However, I can see two basic forms this survey question might have taken.

First: "which smartphone would you consider buying: iPhone, Android, Windows
Phone, Blackberry, ..." (Or asking type-by-type "would you consider buying an
X?"

Second: "which sort of smartphone would you consider buying?"

You can get wildly different answers by changing the form of the question.
Providing a list and saying "which would you consider?" is probably going to
get a lot of people saying "sure, I'd consider that", whereas asking without
the prompt is going to produce a list of the devices with actual _mindshare_.

~~~
crenshaw
The other thing that is interesting is:

"Android and iOS are covered tons in the media, and Windows Phone—surprisingly
for a Microsoft product—seems to have missed the boat on brand awareness. An
embarrassing 45 percent of consumers surveyed by NPD said they were unaware of
Windows Phone 7.

And among the 50 percent of consumers who said they will be buying a
smartphone, but didn’t want to buy a Windows Phone, the biggest reason,
accounting for 46 percent of respondents, was because they didn’t know enough
about the Windows Phone OS."

Basically if you know about WP then you'd consider it. But nearly as many
people don't know about it at all as those that have heard of it.

------
wccrawford
44%? I've never met anyone who was considering a Win7 mobile phone. I've met
many that were considering iPhone and Android, though.

I might have considered one, if I didn't remember WinCE.

~~~
hvs
The "people I've met" demographic isn't usually the best for determining
market demand. Especially since we tend to associate with people similar to
ourselves.

~~~
wccrawford
Normally I'd agree, but 0% to 44% is a huge jump. I'm finding it hard to
believe.

~~~
hvs
Is it actually 0%, though? Do you make a point of asking everyone you know if
they plan on buying a Windows phone? Everyone?

------
crenshaw
A lot of people wondered why in the world would MS endorse a 4'7" phone (the
HTC Titan). From people I know who work retail, including a cousin who works
for ATT retail, people come into stores wanting either an iPhone or a
smartphone.

The iPhone users are pretty set. Their kids have it, or they had one before,
or their wife has one, or everyone tells them it is the best.

For people not set on iPhone, it sounds like the decision is often made in the
store. And apparently big screens and thin phones area big deal. Android has
dominated the retail presence. If WP can match the retail presence, it can
probably start splitting some sales with Android.

~~~
wccrawford
I'm all for big screen, but 4 ft 7 inches is just too big. Titan is a good
name for it. ;)

I suspect you mean 4.7" instead. :)

~~~
laconian
"Titan" indeed!

------
alttag
It's amazing that Microsoft can engender so much mindshare, but of the
*-shares (mindshare, marketshare), the article leaves out share of profits,
which makes neither Android nor Microsoft look particularly compelling.

One of the troubles Android is facing is that the nature of an open system
(... and perhaps this is why Android is becoming less open ...) allows
competitors lower entry barriers and enables low-cost providers. There is a
race to slash prices and operate on thinner margins. All of this dilutes the
value of the brand at the high end, and makes higher-end products stand out
less. It's a valid strategy, and Android has successfully shipped an
incredible number of units because of it, but profits for phone vendors are
thin as a consequence. (Tangentially, unit-based marketshare is exactly what
Google wants, as it sells eyeballs to advertisers.)

If Microsoft can avoid these downsides of commoditization with Metro, the
mindshare the article reports on could become very worthwhile for them.

------
runjake
WP7 user here (I even left the iPhone for it).

Mindshare? What mindshare? Even die-hard Windows users I encounter think that
WP7 == Windows Mobile, and thus, think it's total crap... until I show them
the actual experience and apps.

Seems like every time I'm at a wireless store, there's an employee showing a
customer phones who shows them a WP7 dismissively.

If the person selling you a phone thinks it sucks (for whatever reason or
prejudice), what are the odds you're going to buy that phone?

Microsoft has a lot of image fixing to do. There's a huge image problem here.

~~~
kpao
I think this is going to change. I was at an AT&T store this morning and saw
one of the sales rep taking a quizz with questions about WP7 and Mango. If all
the sales reps go through it, maybe it'll change the vision they have and what
they tell customers.

------
tomkarlo
What does it even mean that they're "considering" WinMo phones? When I bought
a car, I "considered" buying a Kia - I was aware they exist and of their
brand, value, etc.... that doesn't mean there was any actual chance I was
going to buy one. The only car brands I didn't "consider" were ones no longer
selling in the US.

~~~
aespinoza
If Apple began building cars, would you "consider" buying one? Comparing the
Microsoft brand with the Kia brand is not leveled. Microsoft is a top brand in
Enterprise software. It is just getting into a different industry.

Now the most interesting thing, is that Microsoft was a worthy competitor
years back with their Window Mobile brand. So it is not so far fetched to
think they can regain the market share they lost, and maybe even more.

~~~
tomkarlo
Yeah, I'd "consider" it. I'd probably reject it, but just to reject it would
mean I "considered" it - simply forming an opinion about something, positive
or negative, means you've considered it.

Kia's a perfectly good brand, in my view. I wasn't using it to be negative
about Microsoft, that's your bias or defensiveness. I'm just saying that the
article is citing the number of people who would "consider" buying Windows
Mobile, which is a really weak indicator for how many would buy it.

What % of people would "consider" getting kicked in the nuts for $10? I'd
argue nearly 100%, but how many would actually agree to it?

~~~
aespinoza
I understand your point. I think what is interesting about this story is not
about how the word consider is being used. It is mostly about interest. People
are open to a Microsoft Phone, and that could definitely drive expectations.

I don't want to drag this discussion further. I understand your points, and I
actually agree. We are just talking about two different things.

------
nextparadigms
Windows Phone has mind share? Didn't we see some articles recently that even
store clerks confuse Windows Phone with Windows Mobile phones, and don't care
much about them?

------
neworbit
That shouldn't be too strange. I'd consider buying one, and I don't use many
MS products. No reason not to evaluate it in a purchasing decision.

All things being equal I'd probably buy another Android device, but I'm not
zealous enough to say "if MS makes a better product I won't buy it!" (Though
if you do say that about Apple or Microsoft, I can understand the
sentiment...)

------
jsz0
This does not surprise me. I've had many problems with my Android phones (3 so
far) I really don't see the point in getting another one. I'd rather give WM7
a try at this point. Maybe in 2 years or whatever I'll give Android another
shot but my needs are basic enough (web/mail) that it seems silly to suffer
with Android any longer.

