
California's other drought: a major earthquake is overdue - asclepi
http://strangesounds.org/2018/03/california-major-earthquake-drought-big-one.html
======
cjensen
The article asserts there is a "drought" because Earthquakes on certain faults
haven't occurred in the last N years. But the article fails to even suggest a
frequency of expected occurrence which would lead to such a conclusion. This
is just clickbait exploiting fear for money.

For facts, the USGS posts the best scientific evaluation of fault frequency.
Here's the one for the Bay Area [1]. Summary is that in the next 30 years,
there is a 98% chance of >= 6.0 (meh), 72% chance of >= 6.7 (ouch), 51% chance
of >= 7.1 (Loma Prieta class), and 20% chance of >= 7.5 (Great SF Earthquake
class). The fact sheet goes into detail on the likelihood of earthquakes on
each fault.

[1] PDF
[https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf](https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf)

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pmoriarty
I'm so disappointed that California doesn't have something like Mexico's
Seismic Alert System, which has historically given 60 seconds of warning
before an earthquake.[1] Something like that could save so many lives.

 _" CIRES transmits earthquake early warning alerts through a network of VHF
stations similar to the NOAA Weather Radio service in the United States,
including use of Specific Area Message Encoding, but with faster lead times in
order to issue more timely warnings within two seconds or less. CIRES offers
alert systems for buildings and personal use, which also come pre-installed
with the official warning sound used for earthquake alerts in Mexico. On its
network of transmitters, CIRES issues required weekly tests every three hours
to ensure receivers are connected to its network, as well as earthquake
warnings when necessary. More than 90,000 users in Mexico City, including
almost all public schools, have receivers. The Mexico City Metro additionally
receives SASMEX alerts, although not for public dissemination but instead to
stop trains or delay departures as necessary."_

[1] -
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SASMEX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SASMEX)

~~~
maxxxxx
What would you do with 60 seconds warning? Crawl under a table? I am not
facetious. It's probably not enough time to run out of a building.

~~~
dawnerd
60 seconds is better than nothing. Similar to japan, that 60 seconds could
mean stopping trains and anything else sensitive to the ground moving.
Elevators could be stopped and people directed out. Gas and water shut off.
Quite a bit more too, really.

~~~
mikeyouse
Partial list of things that can happen with even 10 seconds of warning:

* Elevators stop at closest floor and doors open, preventing people from being stuck between floors.

* Critical garage doors & gates at fire stations / hospitals will open, allowing emergency vehicles to quickly exit.

* Other critical doors & gates will close to prevent people from entering tunnels or other areas that could be blocked off.

* Trains will slow or stop to prevent derailments.

* Oil/Gas pipeline pressures will be reduced and valves will close to lessen impact if line is compromised.

* Hospitals alert to prevent mishaps in surgery or other dangerous areas (like MRIs).

* Airports alert to stop takeoffs/landings in case there are buckles in the runway.

In short, there are a ton of things that you can do to prevent really bad
outcomes (many of which are prefaced on doing something before the power cuts
out) that are much more difficult and expensive after the shaking has started.

~~~
nostrademons
Could also post electronic signs on freeways that warn motorists to stop and
pull over immediately, particularly before hazardous areas like bridges,
tunnels, viaducts, and onramps. IIRC most of the civilian casualties of the
1989 Loma Prieta & 1994 Northridge earthquakes were from viaduct or bridge
collapses that pinned cars underneath. With a minute's warning, you can
prevent any more cars from entering the bridge and get most of the existing
traffic out.

~~~
hyperbovine
I can almost guarantee you that a warning like that, broadcast at certain
times of the day on all major freeways in LA or the bay area, would kill more
people than the events that you mentioned.

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xenihn
I hope everyone in California who reads HN is prepared with emergency
supplies. At the very least stock up on emergency drinking water so that you
won't have to go out of your way to get it if things get particularly bad.
You'll have plenty of other things to worry about, so you may as well mitigate
what's arguably one of the easiest and cheapest issues to prepare for now.

~~~
beambot
I live in San Jose and have 10-20 gallons of fresh water stored in large
bottles for precisely this purpose. I'm _amazed_ at how many people give me
flak about that single preparation -- too few people in this area have lived
through a proper natural disaster and are woefully ill prepared.

~~~
pascalxus
Yeah. I don't understand why people are so opposed to being prepared. My wife
got super angry at me when I suggested we stock some extra water.

But don't you have to replace the water every 6 months? That's gonna be a huge
chore, to do for the next 50 years. Is there an easier way?

~~~
Baeocystin
That's the recommended interval if you're just storing the cheap water that
comes in thin bottles from the grocery store. Use a thicker food-grade
plastic, glass, or stainless steel container, and the water will stay
drinkable indefinitely.

~~~
ghaff
Yeah, I'm not going to worry too much about how long water will stay "good"
for an emergency situation. And, if you're worried about bacteria, keep a
filter/UV sterilizer/iodine/etc. with the water.

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jedberg
I was talking to someone the other day who is working on predicting
earthquakes by combining massive data sets with deep learning. They have a
promising technique that looks like it can predict 24-72 hours in advance.

Having lived through Northridge in '94, I really hope he succeeds before it
happens.

~~~
Apocryphon
This sounds like the sort of existential tool that Silicon Valley _ought_ to
be pouring as much funding into as possible. Or fueling the creation of
alternate tech hubs.

Martian colonies and mind uploading are unlikely to be ready by the time the
Big One comes.

~~~
nostrademons
Google runs earthquake drills every year in which they assume that the
Mountain View & other Bay Area offices have been completely destroyed, all
employees within them (including top executives) have been killed, and all
West Coast datacenters have been knocked out. Their aim is to ensure
continuity of operations. Although each drill usually identifies some
deficiencies and potential failure points, in the 5 years I was there the
simulation never actually resulted in Google going offline.

The big Silicon Valley companies are all huge multinationals at this point,
more powerful (and safer) than many nation-states. I'm not even sure a
worldwide nuclear war would take Google offline, although it would likely kill
90%+ of its customer base.

~~~
adventured
> I'm not even sure a worldwide nuclear war would take Google offline

All the major power generation systems in the US and Europe that Google needs
to operate, would likely be taken down. They're well known and those would all
be intentionally targeted. Google as a shell of its former self might stay up
briefly, that wouldn't last long outside of some stray regions. Further,
they'd have those stray regions severed by local authorities who would divert
the critical power to more important uses (literally keeping people alive).
Any resistance by Google at that redirect of their power use would be met by
military equivalent force.

~~~
nostrademons
Google usually has its own private power generation for major DCs, not
connected to the public grid. They're very big on renewables - they've built
their own hydro power stations on the Columbia River for their west coast DCs,
and they typically use geothermal or tidal power in Europe. Being close to
potential renewable energy sources is actually a major consideration for where
they put new DCs.

~~~
emiliobumachar
Private property rights might be the first casualties of the apocalypse.

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ChuckMcM
As disasters go earthquakes are intermittent enough that it is easy to forget
about them. I carry an earthquake kit in my car with enough to get out of my
car and hike (and possibly camp a bit) back to my house from most anywhere I
might be in the 99th percentile.

I did have the unpleasant experience of replacing my water cache and finding
that one of the barrels had been leaking into one of the dry goods boxes. That
was a gooey icky mess. And it reminded me to be more vigilant about rotating
supplies.

Still, when it hits, I expect a lot of chaos.

~~~
yumraj
Do you mind sharing the contents of your car earthquake kit?

~~~
casefields
[http://www.latimes.com/la-me-disaster17sep17-side-
htmlstory....](http://www.latimes.com/la-me-disaster17sep17-side-
htmlstory.html)

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Faaak
Very ignorant question, but could it be possible to artificially start an
earthquake in order to prevent "power build-up" ? Like many small man-made
earthquakes spread over a decade instead of a big natural one.

It's how it's done with avalanches: you start them before they get too big and
dangerous.

~~~
nordsieck
> could it be possible to artificially start an earthquake in order to prevent
> "power build-up"

Look up the research around hydraulic fracturing (specifically, waste water
injection).

It appears that there isn't much consensus around whether or not this is
beneficial.

~~~
randyrand
It obvious that it is beneficial (at least for areas that have large
earthquakes), but because it has to do with oil and GW many researches don't
want to admit there are side-benefits.

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zapita
For homeowners and building operators, there is a safety valve you can install
that will shut off the gas line when it detects earthquake-like shaking. This
reduces the risk of a fire or explosion in the aftermath of an earthquake.

Also, remember that emergency kits include perishable items. Keep an eye on
those, and remember to rotate your supplies.

~~~
dmckeon
Stockpile foods you like to eat anyway, and rotate as you resupply. You like
Campbell's soup? Keep 10 cans in stock, not 2. Same for any simple food with a
long shelf life.

That way you don't end up with 100 pounds of 10-year-old beans, rice, and
MREs. YMMV if you're planning for SHTF/TEOTWAKI rather than a big earthquake.

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mmanfrin
I've lived in the Bay Area all my life, was a baby when Loma Prieta hit. I had
scarcely felt an earthquake in my life except for a few occasions where I had
to ask people nearby 'was that just an earthquake?'.

A month or two ago there was an earthquake epicentered a 5 minute walk from my
house. It shook my house and wobbled my walls and I thought for sure it was
finally the big one. I find out the next day that it was only around a 4.0.
It's hard to imagine what the epicenter of a 7.0 (>30k times as powerful)
would feel like.

~~~
KirinDave
I was a tween when LP hit. I remember my TV shooting out of of an 8 foot tall
entertainment cabinet and taking the whole thing down with it inside. Outside,
I watched our 3 acres of squared off of ranch fencing visibly ripple and
distort as the waves passed through.

More than one window shattered, and our well (I lived in a remote area)
actually was stressed so that it collapsed. We were lucky we only lost power
for a week. People further up in the mountains didn't have it for over a
month.

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masonicb00m
Reminds me of "WHAT IS THE CHANCE OF AN EARTHQUAKE?" by David Freedman.
[https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~stark/Preprints/611.pdf](https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~stark/Preprints/611.pdf).
A fun read if you're into stats.

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vondur
This is one drought I'm ok with. I was here for the Northridge quake and awake
at the time. Not that fun.

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saagarjha
I've always wondered if it would be possible for a warning system to provide
5-10 seconds of warning for an earthquake. For a large earthquake and p-wave
speeds of 10 km/s, if acted upon immediately couldn't you push out an alert
with a lead time of a couple dozen seconds?

~~~
bamboozled
I believe this is how bullet trains avoid catastrophe in Japan. They have an
early warning system and the trains stop before the actual ground starts
trembling.

~~~
fyfy18
Further reading on this:

[https://www.railway-
technology.com/features/feature122751/](https://www.railway-
technology.com/features/feature122751/)

The most surprising part for me is although most of the network was closed due
to infrastructure being damaged on the day of the earthquake, everything was
repaired and fully operational the next day.

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mmilano
Maybe it's from living in CA all my life, but having ridden many out many
quakes, my concern for 'The Big One' is a little less than my concern is for
an astroid hit... which isn't much.

~~~
solipsism
Seems odd. We have a non-zero (hopefully pretty good) chance of spotting an
incoming asteroid, at which point we would calculate everything about the
time, place, and severity of the strike with extremely high precision. We have
none of that for earthquakes.

~~~
mmilano
I really meant a 'cataclysmic astroid hit', one we could do nothing about...
but fascinating point none the less.

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your-nanny
Is due. Just because something hasn't happened for some time doesn't by itself
mean it's immminent. How are the distributions of earthquake events and
magnitudes typically modeled?

~~~
mikeash
Earthquakes tend to come from relieving built up stresses, so the “due” term
is appropriate. They’re not purely random.

~~~
Waterluvian
It's one of those times gamblers fallacy isn't accurate. The longer since an
earthquake, the more likely it becomes. Pretty fascinating.

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jraines
For the geologists in the house:

I live in a new construction home with a post-tensioned slab foundation about
4 miles from the Hayward fault -- in a vertical line straight down.

How worried should I be?

~~~
wiredfool
Roughly, I'd say your biggest danger is falling objects, like books, and fire.

Building codes for new construction do most of the obvious now, the walls are
tied to the foundation, there are shear panels.

5 to 15 stories is the worst height range, but shorter buildings can be bad if
they're very asymmetric, like one with a parking under a two story appt, with
one shear wall and poles for gravity support.

otoh, in a big enough earthquake, anything will be damaged.

~~~
shostack
What year did the "walls are tied to the foundation" bit become code? If I'm
in a 50+ year old house, what are the main things to check for?

I've heard that there is shockingly little consistency with retrofit companies
and the work they do, and that the inspections aren't really great for those
things, but I know next to nothing about making sure one's home is properly
fitted.

~~~
wiredfool
It was well known when I did civil engineering in the mid 90s, I want to say
that it was post Northridge that it started to bubble through the code. 50
years is probably pre-foundation tiedown. Current construction is going to
have long sheet metal straps or j bolts into the foundation, I'm not sure what
a retrofit will have.

An easy thing to check is the hot water tank. If it's not well strapped to
studs, then I can't imagine anything else has been done. If it has, then at
least you know that has been done, it it doesn't really tell you anything
else.

I know when I was selling my house in Wa, that was one of the things the
inspector looked for, so it's highly probable that it's been done, as its
quick and easy.

Inspections are the only way to know for sure, but it can be invasive to get
into the walls enough to see.

~~~
shostack
Thanks for the info. Water heater has two metal straps to the studs and is on
a raised platform, so that's taken care of.

The foundation is slightly raised on post and pier with no sheering panels or
bolts in the posts that I can see, but the exterior walls look like they may
be bolted to concrete the foundation perimeter.

Any tips on making sure a retrofit company is legit? My biggest concern is I'd
heard that the inspections for getting a retrofit aren't super consistent or
thorough, which is a huge concern.

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yuhong
I have been paying attention to lunar tides as a factor for earthquakes
myself.

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artur_makly
how could a +7.0 affect AWS and Coinbase? should people consider redundancy
and moving to a different wallet?

~~~
rnet85
I don't think they have their datacenters in the same place. These kind of
events are anticipated and large companies like those will have detailed
disaster recovery plans with multiple redundancies.

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jbverschoor
Better move your s3 data ;)

