
The iPad Mystery - robin_reala
https://mondaynote.com/the-ipad-mystery-54efb0a7c224
======
camillomiller
I'm surprised nobody mentioned that it could simply still be a normalization
phase. The iPad's growth exploded because everybody thought it was the new
iPhone. Analysts started analyzing it like if it WAS the new iPhone. But it's
a very different product, with a lifecycle much more akin to that of a laptop.
In this regard the iPad is indeed a computer. I'm typing this on a late 2014
MacBook Pro Retina. It's still a great machine, why change it? I can do
everything with it. Even video editing to a very good extent. The same for my
iPad Air, bought in 2014. Still rocking. I might be swapping it for a new iPad
in 2 years maybe, but so far, why bother?

My mom's iPad is my old short-lived iPad 3. She gets Pinterest, she browses
the web, she does her email, we Facetime. My dad borrows it from time to time
to buy a rare book online or to look for some obscure Prog Rock band from the
'70\. He is the typical proudly tech-illiterate son of the fifties, but well,
he actually loves to use his iPad 1 as a YouTube Radio when he's painting.

She has a laptop at home, but it's strictly connected to work related task.
I.e. spreadsheets. And that's it. Her laptop and her iPad are perfectly
complementary devices she is not really thinking about changing until they
will break or become unbearably slow.

There's no mystery: the iPad IS a computer, and its update cycle reflects it.

~~~
anjc
You say this as if an unexpectedly slow update cycle can be a retroactive
justification of the product. If Apple weren't expecting users to update iPads
so infrequently, then it will be an issue for them.

Also it can't be considered both "a computer" and considered to be in a
maturing lifecycle phase if tablet sales are down while laptop sales are
increasing. If you consider the iPad a computer, then Apple's product line is
cannibalising itself, which would also be an issue.

~~~
freehunter
>If you consider the iPad a computer, then Apple's product line is
cannibalising itself, which would also be an issue.

Say what? You know Apple doesn't sell just one computer, right? They don't
have any product called the Apple Computer. They have several different
laptops, several different desktops, several different AIOs, and if you
consider an iPad to be a computer, several different tablets. No one is saying
the Macbook Air is cannibalizing sales of the Macbook Pro, or that the Mac
Mini is cannibalizing sales of the 27" iMac. They might be computers, sure,
but different computers are built for different use cases. There's a world of
product differentiation between those offerings.

~~~
anjc
Cannibalisation refers to competition within your own product-line causing a
reduction in revenue.

E.g. with simple figures: Apple spend 1 billion producing iPads from start to
finish, and selling them produces 10b in income. They then introduce Macbooks
which cost 5b to produce and result in 10b in income. If the introduction of
lower margin Macbooks causes a 25% drop in sales of higher margin iPads, then
the profitability of their product line has been reduced due to inter-product
competition.

It's generally not a good thing and represents a waste of resources.

------
mmjaa
I wish I could buy tablets and computers the same way I buy synthesisers and
mixers: knowing full well that they'll be just as useful in 20 years, as they
are the day I bought them.

I look around me in the room I'm in currently and I see a massive collection
of much-loved, very respected, well-used hardware: synthesisers. But I'm
typing this message on a machine (MacBook) that is inevitably going to end up
being replaced by something else, just because after a few years its not going
to be as much use as it once could have been. This has happened already - with
many a MacBook/tiBook, my iPad1/iPad2 collection, and so on.

But yet, the musical instruments still remain, even 30 years after their
release, and even long after official support has ended. I chalk this up to
completeness: musical instrument manufacturers know that a musical instrument
that needs repair/maintenance/upgrades on a regular basis, isn't a musical
instrument. (Its more of a toy.)

I wonder what could happen that would bridge this gap between these two worlds
- on the one hand, effectively 'finished' products that are always very
reliable and still work the way they were intended, decades on - versus on the
other hand, 'unstable' products that will, basically, still work on a
fundamental level 10 years from now, as long as I'm willing to do the work
myself to keep them running.

I wish the computer manufacturers treated their products more like refined,
finished, musical instruments than half-finished/never-finished sort-of tools
whose functionality is never, really, set in stone for the ages.

~~~
CoolGuySteve
I think we're getting there for laptops. At the risk of sounding like 640kb is
enough for anyone:

\- CPU clock rate has leveled off, mobile processors have been 2-4 threads for
a while now and focus more on power efficiency

\- 600MB/sec SSDs are kind of 'fast enough' with regards to app loading and
boot times

\- retina displays are as good as anyone can see

\- the GPU is fast enough to draw a moderately 3D GUI

\- battery life is longer than an 8 hour work day

\- these days the power adapter is heavier than an ultralight

I think computers are starting to last longer and longer before going obsolete
on a practical level. What we're seeing now is more like planned obsolescence,
where new designs and form factors are getting introduced but the computer is
more or less the same.

There are also some classic designs that last multiple years with minor
refreshes much like a calculator: MacBook Air, XPS13, some thinkpads, the 10"
and 7" iPad

~~~
jp555
They wont be good enough for light-field-based mixed-reality computing just
like command line computers weren't good enough for GUIs.

How many more computers will we probably buy before mixed-reality jumps the
chasm and goes mainstream? I don't think it's more than 2.

~~~
TheOtherHobbes
I think you're right, but at the current rate of progress it's going to take a
while to get there.

We're currently in the modern equivalent of the mid-90s DOS plateau, where an
experience that's actually quite mediocre has become the default user
expectation.

Getting past this requires an order of magnitude increase in processor power.
Given what's happening in hardware that seems unlikely any time soon.

It's more likely tablets will gradually catch up and merge with desktops - but
there won't be any dramatic change in the UX offered by either. That needs
speed and UI technologies that are at least a generation away.

The new UX will come from voice, AI, and robotics, which will make computing
more physically interactive, and less tied to the glass typewriter/document
library model.

~~~
jp555
I largely agree, although I think mixed-reality will be the new UX, with voice
& AI being a big part of it as well. But we may need _2 orders of magnitude_
in GPU/Watt performance before light-field glasses replace 2D screens.

Given the gargantuan data/compression requirements of light-fields (Lytro's
cameras capture >300GB/sec of lightfield data!!!), plus rendering, persistent
SLAM, etc, we'll need the power of a GTX1080Ti or better, but able to run flat
out using only 1-3Watts of power instead of ~250W.

The good news is this is what the global smartphone manufacturing ecosystem is
working towards, with a relatively short device life-cycle to finance the huge
effort that will be required to get there. But mid to late 2020s will be all
about mixed reality. I am convinced that it will be so incredibly compelling,
that any 2D screen, no matter the size, resolution, dynamic range, or refresh
rate, will be like command line compared to GUI today.

------
abalone
I don't know how many of you have kids, but the iPad is a revolution for kids.
They can literally start using it independently from age 2. I think most
families will have at least one in the house.

They also have a very long service life. That's probably a big reason why the
growth rate doesn't compare well to the iPhone. The upgrade cycle is like 5-6
years, not 1-2.

I've thought a lot about Steve Jobs' "cars vs trucks" analogy.[1] Personally I
don't use the iPad much anymore, owing to the narrowing of the gap between my
bigger phone and slimmer, all-flash Macbook. But although I work in tech I
don't see my Mac as just a "truck". I prefer it for web browsing, email,
writing, etc., all "car-like" things. If you had a car and a truck in the
garage you probably wouldn't pick the truck to drive the kids to school.. but
that's what I do with my Mac, metaphorically speaking.

So I would expand the analogy slightly. If iPads are cars and desktop
computers are trucks, then Macbooks are the SUVs. Still a very appealing
choice for regular non-industrial users who just want a bit more capability.

[1] [http://allthingsd.com/20130109/steve-jobs-was-right-
tablets-...](http://allthingsd.com/20130109/steve-jobs-was-right-tablets-are-
cars-pcs-are-trucks/)

~~~
m_eiman
We've got four iPads in the house, and we're only now replacing the iPad Mini
(first generation) with a new iPad 2017; we've also got an iPad 2 that's next
in line for a replacement, but since it's still handling Netflix et al almost
acceptably the 4yo can use it a while longer.

These things have survived three kids, I don't think we've had any other thing
they've used live this long. Pretty darn impressive.

------
swombat
I got a max-specced iPad Pro after returning my top spec 2016 MBP... It's now
become my main work machine. I still need my 2012 MBP at home for tasks that
can't be done on iPad, but those are rare and quite specialised (music
production, dj library management, bits of programming, and some more advanced
document preparation).

It's working well. I love the lightness (with the Apple keyboard case it's a
fair bit lighter than an MPB), the quasi-infinite battery (though some apps
like Slack and, weirdly, Notes, can, without announcing it, suddenly go into
battery draining mode... I'd love a more battery-friendly replacement), and
the freedom of not needing wifi in most countries that I'm likely to travel
too (thanks to the UK network "Three"'s "Feel At Home" feature that allows me
to continue using my phone and iPad data as if I was in the UK). It feels
really liberating.

Worth adding a disclaimer: I no longer do much or any programming. Most of the
"value adding" work I do consists of talking to people, preparing the odd
document and sending emails.

~~~
anjc
> bits of programming, and some more advanced document preparation

If you can't do them on an iPad then you simply can not consider it a "work
machine", in the general sense. You can do those on a 15 year old laptop with
ease.

~~~
mcphage
> If you can't do them on an iPad then you simply can not consider it a "work
> machine", in the general sense. You can do those on a 15 year old laptop
> with ease.

If it's something you can do on a 15 year old machine, which is otherwise
nearly unusable (last week I turned on my 2001 Titanium Powerbook G4 for the
first time in years; it could see my WiFi network, but not connect), then
maybe that's not a very useful definition for "work machine".

------
dep_b
I wouldn't buy a new iPad since my iPad Mini 2 (Retina) is still super smooth
in daily use, but it's seeing tons of use every day. We still have to fight
for it sometimes!

Main use:

* YouTube

* More casual or turn based games like Ticket to Ride, Space Hulk, Candy Crush, Pinball Arcade, etc.

* Light web browsing when looking for things together

* Light creative application (both Snapchat-y things and Adobe suite)

* Remote maintenance through RDP when on holidays. Having limitations on what I can do helps preventing doing more than I should but it's enough to not bring a laptop.

I would replace it immediately if it was broken or stolen. Probably I would
buy a bigger one instead. I'm still tempted to buy a new one but since I
already have one and I still need to invest in:

* A MacBook for my wife

* Probably the iPhone 8 if it has new features I need to develop for

* I still don't have the Apple Watch

* Or an Apple TV

* Or even a decent 4K OLED TV to hook it up to

....so it probably won't happen until it breaks.

And I guess most people are in that boat. Apple makes them too damn good for
their own good.

~~~
bhouston
My daughter uses our tablet every day in car rides and to play various games.
Was using a 3 year old Andriod tablet until recently when its Andriod 4.x
didn't allow for the latest games to install (required Andriod 5.) Tablets are
the best device for young children for sure -- especially if they do not yet
need a phone (which in our neighbourhood seems to be occuring around 12 years
old.)

~~~
digi_owl
I only retired an Android tablet because the USB port broke, so i could no
longer charge it (it just jumps straight to the firmware install screen for
some reason).

Right now i am making due with a cheap Windows tablet i bought because of
curiosity, and it seems to get the job done for the most part.

Actually i am eyeing another Windows tablet, because it offers a keyboard and
a couple of USB ports in a 8" package. And the lack of such ports is what i
feel has held back tablets as being nothing more than big PMPs with a net
connection so far.

Yeah sure, there is OTG. But that means tying up the one micro-USB port on the
device. And I know there are supposed to be some standard for charging docks
related to OTG, but i have yet to find one that actually works.

------
mark_l_watson
He nails it in the article: once you have a fairly modern iPad there is not
much reason to frequently update. That said I would expect Apple to make money
also on selling media like TV shows and movies, books, Apps, etc.

I think Apple's best strategy is to work hard to have the best integrated,
iPhone, iPad, macOS, iTV, iWatch. Apple loyalist will keep the revenue stream
healthy.

I feel like I have gone over to the dark side here: I have quit my FSF paid
membership, shelved my Linux laptops, and have a much less complicated work-
flow and entertainment experience with my macOS, iPad Pro, and iPhone. I feel
like I have greatly simplified my life at the expense of free software, etc.
ideals.

------
intoverflow2
Depresses me that Apple is trying to force real computers to stop being a
thing just to try and make the iPad the true revolution that they still
believe it is.

I feel Jobs saw the value in real computers even if a bit more locked down
than self built they were still real computers. Compared to Cook who doesn't
seem to understand or even like computers and thinks the future is in devices.

I just don't see why Apple can't accept that iPads might be great for kids,
people who purely use machines for consumption and my parents but iPads are
worthless to some of us who need to actually use the full potential of
computers.

~~~
votepaunchy
What do you consider a "real computer"?

~~~
evv
Personally I consider a computer "real" if you can use it to write its own
software. Until you can actually develop iOS apps on iOS, it will just be a
toy.

~~~
ry_ry
Wrote some code on an iPad this morning on my way to work.

Never again. It's not even a question of the software being that of a
glorified phone.

Even using a 3rd party code editor with its software 'coding keyboard' it was
an exercise in inefficiency and anti-ergonomics. So by the time you've added a
Bluetooth keyboard, you've effectively got yourself a ramshackle laptop that
isn't quite as useful as an actual laptop.

~~~
pharrlax
This is the problem with the iPad, on a fundamental level, for me.

It's not a laptop, because it's missing crucial laptop features (ability to do
work on it). And it's not a phone because it's missing crucial phone features
(portability and calls).

So when mine broke, I just didn't feel it was worth replacing. I've lost no
value from not having an iPad, because everything it did could also be done on
something else I own.

------
blikdak
I've been trying to replace my MBP with iPad since the original and almost
have a viable solution with the iPad Pro and the Razer Mechanical keyboard
case except for two main things:

\- Integration between apps is still not there. There's some good code editors
out there with syntax highlighting and project based but none support git.
There's some good git clients but there is no workable path between them and
your coding environment without intermediaries like Dropbox etc, and none that
share the concept of a project. You are at the mercy of the developers to
support everything you need or to integrate with another (possibly third
party) app. On MacOS there is always the lowest common denominator, the
terminal which can glue any workflow together.

\- The combination of iPad Pro and keyboard is bigger and thicker than a 13"
MBP. Which would I rather take then...

~~~
rahoulb
I really enjoy using Textastic with Working Copy - you can mount your git repo
from Working Copy as a folder, edit in Textastic, then commit and push via
Working Copy.

This (exposing your internal file-system as a mount point) is available to all
apps, since iOS 10 - it's just only Working Copy and Textastic that seem to
support it.

------
Darthy
I think the reason why the iPad is down while the Mac is up in the market is
that it is not a full computer. My definition of a full computer is that I (1)
can write software on the device itself that (2) can do everything you could
imagine the device could do, and then (3) distribute that software to any
other machine, be it your second machine, or 1 billion of your closest
friends, (4) define yourself under what rules and what price that software
could be bought, and (5) at no point will there be any other party (like the
device creator) that could do anything to prevent you from doing any of these
steps.

The iPad is so very much lacking in all of these terms, and the Mac is not, to
me it's no wonder why the iPad sales numbers are going down while the Mac
sales numbers are going up.

~~~
threeseed
That definition is completely arbitrary and more than a little ridiculous. The
majority of the population do not program and so for them a "full computer" is
anything that allows them to complete all of the tasks they would ever want to
do. For many an iPad could well be that device. For others it might not be.

Because there are platforms like Chromebook and Windows 10S which also do not
satisfy your criteria but many would consider to be a computer as well.

~~~
Darthy
You don't have to program to be positively affected by my suggested change.
You could be just a user of an app that currently does not exist on the iPad,
or the user of a feature that does not exist.

Would you like to group all your files that belong to a certain project
(photos, texts, presentations etc) together in one thing, like a folder? The
iPad currently cannot do that. After that change, somebody could do a patch
that would. And then Apple would see that there is a demand and do a proper
version of that.

Would you like to use the great Apple Photos app, but also have all your files
on dropbox/google drive? Well if you do that currently, you need to have your
photos twice, and work with two different apps. With my suggested changes, one
could create a patch app that just stores all your documents on the service of
your choice.

Would you like to use the Google or Amazon Alexa voice assistants when you
long press the home button? Currently you can't, but in my future you could.
Any you would be surprised how much better they often are. That would create
more competition, and would motivate Apple to up their Siri game.

Would you like to have a SNES emulator? A bittorrent client? A bitcoin client?
A podcast client that can do flattr? All of these things are constantly shut
down by Apple. You are not allowed to have these. With my suggested changes,
you can have these.

Would you like to have something like Maya? Current iOS rules prevent any app
from implementing their own windowing GUI, with the reason being that in this
way, apps cannot become their own platform, which would be problem for Apple
because then another party would become a platform owner. Well many
professional apps like Maya are their own platform.

The list goes on an on. You do not have to be a programmer to suffer from the
limits Apple currently imposes on iOS.

And it's not arbitrary at all. It just returns to the same state computing was
in for 30 years until iOS arrived.

Also, watch your words. "More than a little ridiculous" is not an objective
rational statement, it's just pure ad hominem.

~~~
majewsky
> Also, watch your words. "More than a little ridiculous" is not an objective
> rational statement, it's just pure ad hominem.

Not at all. He said (paraphrasing) "this claim is ridicuolous", not "you are
ridiculous".

~~~
Darthy
I disagree. Saying "this claim is more than a little ridiculous" also contains
the connotation that the speaker must be out of his mind.

And in case, we're doing a meta discussion on rhetorical semantics now, which
is besides the point - because you can't argue away that saying "this claim is
more than a little ridiculous" is just plain bad form.

------
ritchiea
I'm typing this on my iPad & it strikes me that there's not a lot of motive to
upgrade your iPad once you have one. It's a consumption device, as long as I
can continue easily browsing the internet, listening to podcasts and watching
movies I have no reason to upgrade.

My laptop I may want to upgrade to improve computing power and phone form
factors continue to improve. Both of those things sort of affect the iPad but
not nearly to the same degree. I carry my phone around in my pocket, if it's a
tiny bit lighter it makes a huge difference. I mostly use my iPad at home,
it's great for the things I use it for and there's no upgrade I can imagine
that would significantly increase its utility.

~~~
tangue
Here's why I upgraded my Ipad : webdesign. My Ipad 1 still works perfectly,
unfortunately it cannot handle javascript heavy websites. People love to talk
about planned obsolescence but React, Angular (and others frameworks), stupid
parallaxes etc bricked my Ipad, not Apple.

~~~
duncanawoods
Apple is not blameless. I use an iPad4 as a radio and the podcast app is a
miserable laggy and unresponsive experience. 30s lag for tapping something is
not unusual. The idea I have to replace a 2012 device to render a bloody list
with start/stop buttons is pretty shameful.

~~~
tangue
Here's the bad news : even with a brand new Ipad, the stock podcast experience
sucks. Indeed it declines with each version of iOS. (You can however install
Overcast)

------
jacobolus
Everyone in this thread has been going on about how iPads are “toys”, “game
machines for kids”, “only consumption devices”, “for movies and casual web
browsing”, etc. But I use my 13" iPad as a drawing tablet, and it’s amazing.

I wouldn’t want to code or a write book with it, and the software is in some
ways more limited than I would prefer, but the hardware (display, stylus) are
great and it’s a lovely tool for proofreading/annotating PDF files (or other
material), making doodles, writing mathematical notes, sketching out user
interface designs, drawing technical diagrams, planning carpentry projects,
and so on (I know others also use it for drawing comics, making visual art, &
cetera).

Basically it’s a great tool any time you want a computer (unlimited pages,
many drawing tools in one, easy to import/share content, undo support, layers
and versions, ..) with pen input rather than mouse/keyboard. The latency and
precision of the stylus are as good or better than other graphics tablets, the
screen is gorgeous, and the price is competitive as a drawing tablet.

I’d recommend one to anyone who can afford it, and does any kind of critical
reading, design work (e.g. great for flow-charts), or work in a visual medium.
It doesn’t replace a laptop, but it’s a great complement.

~~~
bobbles
I'm using an iPad mini 2nd gen - I would love a newer one but this one just
keeps on being usable...

I seriously think the upgrade cycle for these devices is just much much longer
than most people think it is

~~~
wiredfool
The mini2 is a really nice iPad. I think it's at a similar sweetspot in the
power/support curve that the Ipad2/mini1 was at -- something that's going to
be usable for a good long time. (They sold something with the guts of the
ipad2 for something like 4 years)

My mini2 has been used solidly for 2 years, I'm only looking to upgrade
because the ipad2 the kids use has taken a beating and needs replaced.

------
_ph_
I have been an iPad user from day 1. In the beginning, I have been very
enthusiastic about the iPad, but while I am still using mine, it is only very
lightly these days. The reasons and some things for Apple to change are:

\- The iPad is getting cornered between large smartphones, which cover many
mobile needs and the very portable laptops.

\- Software. There are very few iPad-specific apps, which are really great
productivity-wise. Software development was ruled out by the App Store
conditions and still is difficult. The builtin applications didn't really grow
over the years. Last time I tried, photos still didn't support hierarchical
folders. This worked well in my first year of usage, but after 5 years it
became unusable.

\- Data transfer. For anything relating to productivity, the individual
sandboxing of apps just gets into the way of working productively. Also
getting data in and out of the iPad is not seamless.

\- Software again :). The "desktop" just showing a grid of icons was nice for
the iPhone, but the life tiles of Metro looked more useful on a phone already.
A larger device like an iPad needs this or any other "real" desktop. I am not
talking about "MacOS on the tablet" though. It needs a tablet-optimized
desktop, but not a phone OS either. Multitasking needs to be improved. And why
is it, that external bluetooth keyboards are still not fully supported with
all special keys, e.g. for ssh clients? Why can't I browse photos on a SD-Card
without importing them?

\- Connectivity. Have courage, Apple, add USB-C. Have a real HDMI out, and if
there were an HDMI-input dongle, it would be an instant buy for me. Duet is
nice, but having the option to use the iPad as a real second screen would be
great. A mode for the iPad pro where it would be an extension screen for a
MacOS computer with full pen support would probably sell a lot (and hurt
Wacom)

~~~
kalleboo
> Last time I tried, photos still didn't support hierarchical folders

iOS 10 does support it, but it's kind of hidden (you have to long-press on the
add album button to get an action sheet to add a folder) and I don't think it
supports re-arranging anything (gotta do that on a Mac and sync it)

~~~
_ph_
I am trying to sync hierarchical folders from photos to the iPad, but they get
flattened to one level of hierarchy of folders, i.e. only the folders
containing the pictures remain, but no hierarchy above them.

~~~
kalleboo
Interesting.

I only tested on an iPhone, since I made the unfortunate decision of buying a
16 GB iPad, so if I turn on iCloud Photos it effectively stops working because
it fills up its internal storage (despite being "optimized").

I'm surprised something works on the iPhone but not the iPad. Are you syncing
via USB or iCloud?

~~~
_ph_
I am syncing via USB or WLAN - would need to buy iCloud storage to sync my
images. But if it works for you via iCloud, then the rumors I heard of it
being different are true :). But this only confirms that the software is quite
quirky.

------
wodenokoto
In the 8 years since I bought my current laptop (and still daily driver) I've
bought 1 tablet (still using it after 6 years) and 4 smart phones (of which I
only use 1)

This is of course just an anecdote, but I am in no way surprised that
smartphones are outselling their bigger siblings.

~~~
nerdponx
That's because phones are heavily subsidized (whether as a discount or a
payment plan) by mobile service providers, who put heavy marketing effort into
making sure you always have the latest and greatest.

Meanwhile the iPad is basically a toy.

What's surprising to me is that anyone is surprised by these numbers.

~~~
wodenokoto
I never buy my phones subsidised. General electronic vendors also want me to
have the latest and greatest iPad.

If my iPad is a toy because it is mainly used for browsing reddit and watching
youtube, then my laptop and my phone are also just toys.

~~~
nerdponx
I would say that yeah, they are toys. Or at least "luxury conveniences" \---
rather than some kind of essential tool.

------
throwanem
Totally unrelated to Gassee's main point, but of note in a tangential way: The
best place to find AAAA batteries, like those the Surface Stylus takes, is
inside 9V batteries, which are all but universally composed of six AAAAs wired
in series to reach the specified voltage and packed in a metal can.

Of course, getting the metal can open in an airport, especially on the
"secure" side where you'll have been relieved of any personal toolkit you
might ordinarily carry, is a separate consideration - but in a real pinch, a
house or car key will probably do, because all you really need to manage is to
pry out the top bulkhead with the terminals. If you can do that, you can get
the batteries out, twist them off their solder tabs, and use them.

~~~
givinguflac
This just seems like a terrible idea to try at an airport.

~~~
throwanem
I'd tend to agree, but if you just have to use that stylus right then, it's
probably your best shot. AAAA cells on a blister card are rare as hen's teeth.

~~~
_ZeD_
What's wrong with rechargable batteries? I usually go out with a spare pack
and an ac recharger

~~~
majewsky
Do rechargable AAAA batteries even exist? I've only ever seen AA and AAA.

~~~
throwanem
They seem to exist in the NiMH chemistry [1], but you might have to try a few
brands to find decent-quality ones. That said, if you can find ones that work
reasonably well, they'd be by far your best option. And I'd be amazed to see
them in a brick-and-mortar shop, other than a specialist battery store, and
maybe not even then. (If those even still exist, anyway.)

Another potential issue is that NiMH cells seem to run at a somewhat lower
voltage than alkalines do throughout the discharge curve. I'm not sure whether
that would pose an issue for a device like this; while it probably sips power,
it might have a large voltage drop, which could conceivably result in shorter
operating time from a cell that runs at a lower voltage to begin with. Still,
I'd say it's certainly worth a try.

(Edit: forgot link.)

[1] [https://www.amazon.com/LUITON-Ni-MH-batteries-
rechargeable-O...](https://www.amazon.com/LUITON-Ni-MH-batteries-rechargeable-
Oureal/dp/B06XKPLBD7/ref=sr_1_5_s_it?s=hpc&ie=UTF8&qid=1494853722&sr=1-5&keywords=aaaa+rechargeable)

------
ianamartin
The "problem" with the iPad is two things:

1\. It's too good for some (most?) use-cases. 2\. It's not even close to good
enough for other use-cases.

If all you're doing is consuming content on an iPad, the replacement cycle is
absurdly long. The only reason I upgraded from an iPad 3 (the first retina
version) is that I bought my dad an iPad air for Christmas one year, and the
next year, I bought him a new iPhone. He stopped using the iPad when he got a
large form-factor phone. So I took the iPad air. The 3 is still pretty
functional.

But I can't really do anything with it. It's probably the world's most perfect
porn delivery device, but you know, I can't write any meaningful code on it on
a day-to-day basis that wouldn't be a huge compromise.

I know that there are some people who have successfully transitioned to iPad
as a primary machine. But I'm just not there yet. Yeah, I wanted the hell out
of one when they first came out.

Now, I'm glad to have one, but the one from a few years ago is good enough.
Why buy a new one?

------
BadassFractal
Who's the demographic for the iPad? Is there one?

My iPad is relegated to being either an eBook reader or a Spotify player for
my bluetooth speaker. Can't really be bothered to use it for anything else,
the iPhone 7 plus is more than enough for most other tasks. Also can't see it
becoming relevant for any sort of serious creative work with applications like
Lightroom, Photoshop, Movie editors etc, those are all super shortcut driven
once you become a power user and have to crunch through a ton of work.

~~~
wingerlang
I'd say the demographics is huge since it is so broad. Anyone consuming
content online is essentially a target. Gaming as well.

~~~
w0utert
The demographic _is_ huge, an insane number of tablets have been sold and are
being used. I'd estimate over 50% of the people I know have a tablet at home,
and most definitely more have a tablet but not a PC, than vice-versa.

The whole 'problem' with tablet sales is not that they are not useful or
convenient, but that current models are actually so useful and convenient
there is no reason to upgrade. I would only consider this a 'problem' if you
are trying to sell tablets, from a user perspective it's actually a good
thing.

The fact that tablets cannot comfortably do many things a laptop or PC can has
been obvious to me from day one, they are complementary devices where the
tablet is primarily a more convenient/more comfortable device for many things,
but not suited at all for others. Convertible/hybrid laptops may seem to
follow naturally, to unify all use cases in a single device, but personally
I'm not sold on this idea. I'd guess the demographic who really wants a full
PC-like experience typically doesn't mind having separate devices that are
best at a subset of tasks, instead of one device that's merely 'ok' at all of
them. At least I know I don't mind...

------
pdimitar
Why is everyone on these outlets always evangelizing growth?

iPads are pretty long-term devices. I bought the iPad Pro 12.9" for my
girlfriend March 2016 and she said "I don't want another until this one breaks
up, it works perfect for me".

Does it occur to these journalists that the sales decline is not coming only
from the fact that the tablets are niche devices, BUT ALSO from the fact that
Apple's tablets in particular are relatively long-lasting?

~~~
noxToken
1st gen iPad Mini owner here. I received it as a Christmas present in 2012,
and in the first few months, I couldn't figure out how it was supposed to fit
in with a laptop and phone always in tow. I eventually found the sweet spot,
and I am a mini tablet evangelist. It's still chugging along fine 4.5 years
later in spite of all of the abuse it has received.

I bought a Nexus 7 in lieu of the iPad in 2015. The Nexus 7 is only 2 years
old, but it chugs along fine as well. My only complaint is that the standby
battery life on the Nexus is abysmal. It's not an age thing - it's always been
bad.

There is no need to be on the upgrade wagon for tablets like with phones. This
isn't quite the case anymore, but 2 years on the same phone used to be a very
long time in terms of hardware/software breakthroughs. A 2010 version of a
smartphone was usually markedly different from a 2012 version of a smartphone.
Once the 2nd generation of tablets was released (to fix the missteps of the
1st generation), then there was little incentive to upgrade.

~~~
pdimitar
That's exactly my point, thank you. IMO we hit a plateau of the need to
upgrade around the second half of 2016 -- mostly.

While things like Bluetooth 5.0 -- which allows you to be connected to more
than one device -- are important and improve quality of life for people with a
lot of tech (which inevitably will be all of us in a few decades), CPU/GPU
performance and the need for more RAM have ground to a halt. I've seen people
game on an iPhone SE and being happy about it, too. Wi-Fi can't honestly be
developed much further from now; nobody's phone needs even 50MB/s, let alone
the insane projections for 5G speeds. 2560x1440 smartphone displays are
meaningless; very few people can spot the difference between that and a
1920x1080 screen in a 5.5" factor; even fewer need that difference. The list
goes on.

Add to that the previous point of both of us -- that the iPads are long-
lasting -- and I only see such articles as the OP as meaningless clickbaits
that don't inform anyone in any meaningful way.

People don't buy tablets like they're a cheap new pair of seasonal shoes. They
buy them for long-term value.

------
nirav72
This is simple. No one wants to buy a new Ipad model every year. I personally
just hand mine down to my kids before I purchase a new version every 3 years.
But since the first gen Ipad Air, I haven't felt like I need to buy a new one.
The first air was light weight and had a decent enough processor to handle all
the apps that I use. I can probably push it for one more year before IOS
updates slow things down.

~~~
coleca
True. I have an iPad 4 that I only use for reading iBooks, occasionally
browsing the web, and watching YouTube / NetFlix occasionally. I find I'm
using it less and less because it's unbearably slow. When I first got it, I
used it at work as a laptop replacement to take notes in meetings, manage my
calendar / email, etc. I can't imagine doing that on the same device now. It
takes 20-30 seconds to launch Safari, 10 seconds to switch between apps, etc.
I'm going to try and reset it back to factory and just load iBooks and a
couple other apps to see if it restores it back to the speed it ran prior to
iOS 10.

------
MrBuddyCasino
* who paid for your iPhone?

* who paid for your MBP?

In many cases, your employer did. After the MBP is written off and after the
phone contract renews, you get a new one. Not so for the iPad.

Also, iPads serve mostly three purposes:

* feed a bluetooth speaker

* watch movies in bed

* lookup recipes in the kitchen

It does this very well, and you don't need a new one every two years.

~~~
a012
> * watch movies in bed

Without a proper ipad holder, watching movies in bed with iPad is painfully,
your arms get tired quickly after opening.

~~~
throwanem
Rotation-lock the iPad in landscape mode. Lie on your side, tuck your upper
arm under your pillow, rest one narrow side of the iPad on the bed, and hold
the opposite side with that arm's hand.

Now your arm won't get tired, because it's no longer fighting gravity, and
while you will drop the iPad when you fall asleep, it won't hit your face
unless you're a lot more nearsighted than my -3.5 diopters. (That's a lot -
~20/120 in old money.) It'll also land face down if you hold it with a slight
tilt toward you, which helps prevent the screen light from interfering with
sleep any more than it already will because you're watching it in bed.

~~~
MrBuddyCasino
That delightfully detailed description is definitely HN approved.

I'll add another one: lean your back against the wall sitting upright, pull
your knees towards you so they form an inverted V and prop the iPad up against
your legs. Slightly awkward but workable.

~~~
throwanem
Unless you wear bifocals, in which case the screen is _just_ outside the
comfortable range of focus for the magnifying lenses, yet too low in the field
of view to be comfortably seen through the distance lenses - you end up with
your chin on your breastbone and a crick in your neck.

Maybe an Air is light enough to prop more up against your knees. My 4th gen
certainly isn't!

------
ChuckMcM
Interesting that iPad was introduced into a market that didn't need to refresh
them all of the time. Look at the lifetime ownership of a game console for
example, many are owned for 3 - 6 years. The more interesting question would
be to get hold of Apple's internal update/active numbers. How many iPads are
in daily use as identified by them checking the App store for updates? I'd
love to see that number but I'm not holding my breath.

------
zumu
I theorize the rise Chromebooks has at least partly contributed to the slump
in tablet sales. I thought it was odd they weren't mentioned at all in the
article, esp. given they are increasingly touch enabled and run Android apps
now.

Speaking of which, I'm kind of blown away Apple hasn't tried to take all their
touch expertise from the iPad and add it to MacBooks in some fashion.

~~~
jkchu
Really? I personally feel adding a touchscreen to a laptop is pretty much
useless. The smudging of the screen far outweighs the negligible usability
improvements (are there really any?).

At any rate, Apple has already been using their touch expertise on MacBooks.
Their touchpads are highly regarded, and they recently added Touch Bars to the
new MBPs.

------
killjoywashere
I use an iPad Pro almost daily. My experience has been that the high-
productivity, specialty specific apps I would use haven't caught up. To a
great extent, the IT departments are still struggling with the cloud-vs-local
problem, let alone any serious amount of mobile, or mobile-ish, apps.

~~~
mapgrep
>My experience has been that the high-productivity, specialty specific apps I
would use haven't caught up

Strong agree — lack of robust development environment for DEEP apps is holding
iPad back.

Yes, iPhone has plenty of apps. Session times on an iPhone are short and it's
enough to have just app-ified websites like Facebook app, Instagram, Snapchat,
banking apps. Even transformative truly native apps like Uber do not require
much development on the mobile platform side (the real work is in the
network).

On an iPad your sessions are much longer and there's room for more expensive
apps you spend more time with. Truly great games, for example. Art, media
creation, notes, documents of all sorts, but most of all things that we can't
conceive because they're only possible on an iPad. But there's a void here.
Free to play dominates gaming, and the result is a lot of crap, with even the
gems tarnished by need to drive in app purchases. The "pro" apps are too few
and far between.

Why? Well, insufficient developer buy-in due to the crappy landscape. You have
an app store with weak discovery driven by a combination of whims of a small
team of editors and easily gamed, lowest-common-denominator popularity charts.
You have uncertainty in the development landscape due to Apple fickleness
(store rejections, opaque and changing rules, etc). You have weak cloud
tooling from Apple so simply saving state becomes a unique snowflake challenge
for each dev.

The iPad needs a killer app. The fact that most people can replace one with a
knock-off Netflix/YouTube machine is damning. It should be good at more than
that. It should be brilliant.

~~~
mcgrath_sh
I think the "killer app" is the Pencil. I had a mini that had a shattered
screen and the cost of replacement wasn't worth it to me. I hemmed and hawed
for a year about getting another iPad. It would have been nice to have, but I
could not justify the expense. The Apple Pencil changed that.

I have never used another stylus that comes within 100 yards of the Pencil. I
got the iPad Pro 9.7" heading into my last year of grad school. What a
difference reading and annotating with a Pencil than with my Mini just a year
and a half earlier or even my laptop. I loathe reading anything that I need to
annotate or really understand anywhere else besides my iPad (and that includes
paper).

The Pencil swung me from "meh, nice to have" to "I will replace this
immediately if it dies." I am using a 2011 MacBook Pro that I cannot justify
upgrading and will _probably_ not replace if it dies. But the iPad with a
Pencil is something I can't imagine not having now.

------
blackoil
While ipad do a lot of things it is at best mediocre at all those things. It
can do quick mails and chat, but my phone is more portable and always in my
pocket.I can watch movies on it, but Chromecast shows it on bigger screen with
home theatre sound. I can write a document but it's keyboard isn't good
enough. I can write some code but debugging is painful.

It's not just the sales of these are going down, the usage on web traffic
tracker has also peaked in early 2015, and is going down since, meaning not
only people are not buying them, they are leaving them in drawers and
forgetting about them.

------
ianai
They're too expensive relative to consumer income. The form factor is
wonderful. The price and relative fragility are awful. I think Apple has gone
from monopoly pricing to potential market failure.

------
hmottestad
The iPad marked for >= 9.7" actually grew last quarter. This article has a
graph where the ipad mini is split out as a separate component of the graph.
Big phones have eat up a lot og the ipad mini market, but there is still a big
market for bigger ipads.

[https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2017/3/29/apple-is-
pushing...](https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2017/3/29/apple-is-pushing-ipad-
like-never-before)

Diagram is about 2/3 down the page.

------
vbezhenar
I bought iPad 3, it was good at its time. Now it's laggy but I don't want to
buy another one, it's waste of money. So it's only natural that sells are
slowed, people who wanted to buy one already did it, and not everyone wants to
replace working device every few years.

The only thing that I could desire is if Apple would revive iOS 6 and allow
downgrading. It's awesome OS, much better than following releases for iPad 3.
But, I guess, it won't happen.

------
Stranger43
There is only a mystery if you assume that apple is really chasing the same
strategy as google and microsoft, and not a model where they only really care
about high margin products.

The current Mac ecosystem will not tolerate a rent seeking appstore acting as
middlemen between app or content producers and the end users where as the
vision of taxing the content producers are a reality on iOS. Or to put it
differently the per user profit will trend to be lower for MacOS then iOS so
if apple is going to follow though with their philosophy of only maintaining a
few products in order to be able fuss over every detail, then it makes perfect
sense to double down on iPads and sideline the MacOS lines as something that
will one day be merged with iOS.

The mystery part is in explaining that Apple dont nesserily want a dominant
marketshare if they have to compete on cost to get it and is totally willing
to shed profitable product lines if they feel it distract mangement from the
long term strategy. Weather or not thats a smart philosophy is a good question
but it's pretty much at the core of how job's managed to turn two bankrupt
companies into one of the biggest success stories of the post dotCOM age.

------
Zigurd
When 10" tablets were introduced I would have bet, at the time, that they
would replace laptops on many corporate desks where tasks were limited to
document creation and email. After all, touch was such an obvious advancement
in UI, especially for the users least into technology for its own sake.
Tablets seemed like the ideal device. On top of all that, one of the first
places I saw iPads proliferate was among MDs. Hospital elevators were a focus
group that seemed to predict success for tablets.

Instead they have hardly made a dent. Even in schools, the tablets used by
Amplify in Chicago schools were a notable failure. The market seems to be
mostly discretionary use at home. I have a tablet with a touch sensor that's
dying and there isn't a compelling new product I would buy. Strange.

Meanwhile, Microsoft is unflaggingly digging away at realizing a consistent,
compatible implementation of Windows everywhere and polishing a touch-able
Windows so that you don't run into tiny touch targets and other pitfalls. I
had predicted touch-first platforms would run away with the market before
Microsoft could grind off the jagged edges of a touchable Windows.

------
eridius
> _Steve Jobs proclaims that “if you see a stylus, they blew it”._

> _But only idiots never change their minds._

> _It’s now September 2015: All hail the 12.9” iPad Pro…with a keyboard and
> stylus (pardon, a Pencil)._

Why do people love to trot out that Steve Jobs quote and then completely
misinterpret it? The context of that quote was a device that _requires_ a
stylus. Steve was not dissing the concept of styluses in general.

~~~
duskwuff
Indeed. That comment was implicitly referring to operating systems like Palm
OS and Windows CE which had user interfaces which were essentially impossible
to use without a stylus. (You could sometimes muddle your way through with a
careful fingernail, but it was awkward going.)

The Apple Pencil is something rather different -- it's an entirely optional
add-on for artists/designers who want to use the device as a drawing tablet.

~~~
gommm
To be fair though, Palm OS' handwriting recognition Graffiti was very very
efficient and convenient. I still miss it when using my iphone.

~~~
_ph_
Yes, I would like to have the option to use the Apple Pencil with an iPhone
with Graffiti or some modern alternative. Handwriting still beats typing on
the on-screen keyboard.

~~~
kalleboo
The company that bought PalmSource actually released Graffiti as an Android
keyboard
[https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.access_com...](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.access_company.graffiti_pro&hl=ja)

------
cableshaft
I had the original iPad Mini pretty much since its release in 2012 and only
recently replaced it with an iPad Air 2, and even then the only reason I could
come up with to replace it was "I'm wanting to make apps for these devices
again, and I need something newer to test on."

Sure the browser on the iPad Mini couldn't handle too many tabs at once, and
some apps started looking like they took a bit longer to load, but overall the
iPad Mini was still doing everything I needed it to do: play Netflix, board
game apps, music, browse the internet, and still felt pretty much as fast as
the day I got it.

Which I can't say the same about Android devices. Those tend to feel like
slugs over time.

------
reacweb
Before buying a tablet, we have a need in mind. If the need is filled, we
either do not need to change the tablet or change it quickly to have a
stronger one more adapted to the need. If the need is not filled, the tablet
is almost not used (often given to children) and we do not buy another one.
The candy crush like applications almost never requires a tablet: they work as
fine on a phone.

The use case is very different from phones. Obsolescence is very different. I
am still using my palm III XE (very rarely) for the single application that
motivated buying it 18 years ago.

------
chadcmulligan
I don't understand why the iPad doesn't support a mouse - it really limits it
as a word processing tool - touch while having the iPad with a keyboard is sub
optimal

~~~
pier25
I feel that's one of the reasons the iPad is failing as a laptop replacement.

The CPU/GPU power is there, but iOS is too restrictive.

------
dovdovdov
Wait a few years, children will grow old enough to inherit the old iPads, and
there will be another boom.

Thing is, iPads are powerful, even though Apple tried their very best to
cripple most of them by software updates.

The vicious circle is, that people who are not power users (demanding the
latest features) are the ones less likely to update the software.

So here we are, with a ton of iPads working flawlessly with their stock
firmware.

I mean, even I still own a first gen, just for kicks (and synths,
synthstation49).

~~~
danieldk
_Thing is, iPads are powerful, even though Apple tried their very best to
cripple most of them by software updates._

There are other plausible theories:

1\. When the iPad was introduced, the average smartphone screen size was
between 3 and 3.5". I couldn't find statistics for 2016, but I would guess
that the average is just north of 5". Large phones have considerably more
screen estate than they had in 2010, so a lot of things that were done on
tablets in 2010 can now be done conveniently on a phone.

2\. There was initially a lot of enthusiasm for the iPad and other tablets,
but over time people realized that iPads are mostly limited to media
consumption. The form factor is not convenient for serious work.

In the end it's probably a mix of all of these: people wait longer before
upgrading tablets; phablets have cannibalised tablets; most of the initial
tablet hype/optimism has died out.

[https://medium.com/@somospostpc/a-comprehensive-look-at-
smar...](https://medium.com/@somospostpc/a-comprehensive-look-at-smartphone-
screen-size-statistics-and-trends-e61d77001ebe)

------
peter303
I've semi-retired my iPad first generation mini because it has trouble
rendering beffier web pages like Business Insider and New York Times. It
reloads several times when it runslowon memory for rending. Pages with
multiple viedos are a problem. Also Apple no loner upgrades the OS for this
model.

I replaced it with the new cheap iPad. It has twice the memory, twice the
screen resolution and 20 times faster CPU, and costs less.

------
jarjoura
Something untouched in the article, or at least I missed it, both companies
I've worked at have seen declining iPad users.

My interpretation is that for people that love the device, LOVE it. For people
that thought it was going to be a laptop replacement and wanted to try it,
decided it wasn't.

For everyone else, it just became that device that sits uncharged on the
coffee table or bookshelf now.

------
gommm
> Yes, Tim Cook says he does all of his work on an iPad

That may be a reason why mac OS X has become so unstable in the past couple of
years. My system crashes once a week with random slowdowns once a day. I also
feel that Apple is completely out of touch with what people actually want on a
mac and that would explain it too.

------
pier25
Meanwhile Chromebooks are growing really fast. IMO Google is nailing the OS
for the masses in the post mobile era.

------
Marazan
Also known as the _Netbook_ mystery.

------
rythie
The iPad is a luxury device mostly.

A smartphone is pretty much essential in the modern world. Even those from
poorer backgrounds, will save their money to buy a smartphone. An iPhone is a
similar price to other top end devices and arguably better value since it
lasts longer (updates/resell value).

A Laptop is essential to learn or to work, it's a solid way, established tool
for work.

A tablet/iPad is mostly seen as thing to watch movies on, check social media
and play games. All of which you can do on your phone. Apple is going to have
a hard job convincing people that the iPad can replace a laptop - I don't
think people see it that way.

If every iPad came with a free keyboard cover, they much have some chance,
because people would give it a go and see if it works for them. But right now
in the UK a iPad pro + keyboard is more than twice the cost of an iPad 9.7 (to
which you can't add a keyboard later - for some reason).

------
amelius
Meanwhile, phones are getting bigger.

Could it be that this is the reason for the decline in tablet sales?

------
lsagar
While launching the first iPad, Steve Jobs said that it fills the gap between
a phone and computer. With phones getting beefier and bigger, and a lot of
apps reducing the need to go to websites, that gap is closing fast.

------
maherbeg
I think analysts overestimate the amount of creating the majority of folks do
at home vs at work. Yes, iPads may not take over the worksphere as envisioned,
but at home, they certainly will in most use cases.

------
mixmastamyk
There's one reason I'll probably not get another iPad and that's because I
can't copy files to and from it easily. And no, I'm not installing the
monstrosity named itunes to do so.

------
627467
Computing devices distributions soar proportionally to the revolutionary
applications they enable. The iPad rode the pocket computing revolution quite
late in its cycle and now it's just there along side laptops and even
smartphones. There are no reasons to keep buying new devices that are only
marginally better than the previous.

The main reasons smartphone renewal rates are better has to do with the
personal nature of it: I may want the latest style to display status or, I
need a replacement for a broken/stolen one. In many cases the phone is also
the only computing device I ever need.

iPads, like laptops and desktops sit a home/office, doesn't work as well as a
status symbol and is much less likely to get stolen/broken.

------
nasalgoat
Anyone know a use for an iPad 1?

I have one that works perfectly, but YouTube doesn't work anymore and I'd love
to install Linux or something on it but I couldn't find anything out there.

~~~
jumpkickhit
You should be able to use chrome or safari to load youtube videos in the web
player, up to 720p just fine on it.

------
itazula
My aunt's nursing home equips the nurses and aides with iPads. It seems like a
great use case, and I see a lot of usage.

------
trumbitta2
If I had the money for it, I would definitely use an iPad on the couch and my
iPhone on the go.

------
intrasight
In my opinion, they would have sold more if they'd have eliminated the
charging cord. Seems like a small, insignificant thing, but for the "tech
challenged" the need to plugging and unplugging something can be a show-
stopper. Just doesn't work with my parents for example.

~~~
lnanek2
Even as a mobile phone software developer, I love my wireless charging docks.
No more fiddling with a cable every time I sit down and constantly buying new
cables when they get loose. Charging with wireless is as easy as putting your
phone down. Battery life is sufficient as long as I charge at home and at
work, so I never need a cable except for development.

------
sigzero
I do more an more with my iPad. I may get the new Pro version when it drops.

------
simonh
There is a serious distortion in perspective underlying this narrative. iPad
sales are down and revenue is less than the Mac, therefore users don't want
iPads anymore because Macs are more useful and are the right answer for more
people.

Horse puckey. Last quearter Apple sold 8.9m iPads and only 4.1m Macs. That
means in the last 3 months twice as many people decided an iPad was the right
device for them and did the things they wanted to do better, than thought that
of the Mac. The iPad also has around double the installed base of the Mac. Ok,
iPads are cheaper and I'm sure that's a factor, but still. How does
dramatically better ongoing device sales of the iPad square with this iPad has
failed, Mac rules narrative? It just flat out doesn't.

The question then becomes, what are these devices being used for? Yes of
course the iPad is an excellent device for reading ebooks, watching video,
casual browsing, emails, social media, etc. Is that all they’re used for? Well
no, iOS has a thriving App Store and developing apps for the iPad is a multi-
billion dollar industry. Leading players such as Adobe, Microsoft and IBM
regard it as a key strategic platform they have to be on. There are also
thriving niches such as music production and visual arts where the iPad has
moved well beyond just casual or toy status. The decline in device sales don’t
appear to be threatening that as App sales continue to rise, so the sales
decline seems to be on the ‘consumption device’ side of the sales category.

We have not transitioned to a world in which more people buy Macs because they
are more useful. We're in one where instead of 3x as many people thinking the
iPad is the right device for them, now only 2x as many people think that. But
if this was a collapse in the iPad value proposition we'd be seeing a
reduction in ASP, margins and customer satisfaction. Actually these are as
high as ever.

Let's look at the expectation though. Suppose iPad sales had stayed flat at
their peak of 11m a quarter? By now the installed base would be 800m devices,
more than half the installed base of all laptop and desktop PCs. Is that the
definition of success? Anything less is failure? I would contend that current
sales of the iPad are very healthy, they just don't compare well to the
completely unsustainable, unprecedented success of it's early years.

So that’s the positive case. Even so the iPad faces some major challenges to
achieving it’s full potential. I completely agree with the posts here pointing
out it’s weaknesses. I use Pythonista heavily and the lack of convenient
Github integration is a major pain point. iCloud is a lot better than it used
to be, but still a very long way from where it needs to go. Many small
software studios are struggling to make money out of Apps. But this narrative
of a failed product that nobody needs anymore is simply not supported by the
facts.

The iPad is nowhere near killing off the desktop or Laptop, sales of both of
which by the way are also down industry wide. I can’t see a future in my
lifetime when I won’t want to own a desktop or laptop. Equally though you’re
going to have to take my iPad out of my cold dead hands. It’s actually pretty
much found it’s niche and is here to stay.

------
felipelemos
Jean-Louis Gassée is always a good read.

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harryf
It's not a mystery. It's obvious. What works better for watching Netflix in
bed? A laptop which naturally stands up on its own or an iPad which you need
to hold?

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valuearb
If you see a stylus they blew it, said Steve Jobs about tablets that required
one.

~~~
mwfunk
He was comparing the design goals of the original iPhone to the preexisting
smartphone market 12+ years ago. The fact that it was designed to not require
a stylus for basic usage WAS a big deal. If you never used a Palm Treo or a
Windows tablet or a PocketPC device in the early 2000s, you may not realize
what he's talking about, but a stylus was absolutely required for most or all
basic operations on competing devices at the time, and that UI model was
(clearly, in hindsight) holding back the entire industry. If you don't
remember having to use Graffiti to scrawl out characters on the bottom third
of a PalmOS device, this quote has likely never been contextualized for you.

