
All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years in oil and auto ‘death spiral’ - fmihaila
http://business.financialpost.com/news/transportation/fossil-fuel-vehicles-will-vanish-in-8-years-in-twin-death-spiral-for-big-oil-and-big-autos-says-study-that-shocking-the-industry
======
neogodless
I feel like writers of such a study have spent exactly 0 days in rural America
(which is a very, very large portion of America.)

How much does it cost to replace the gasoline infrastructure with charging in
North Dakota?

How many people living in rural America, driving gasoline trucks and using
them on the job are going to "suddenly stop driving them", pay to get rid of
them, and switch to an all-electric truck? And who is covering the costs of
blanketing those rural areas with charging stations that are fast enough to
remove the pain of waiting to charge a truck that needs enough power to haul a
fifth wheel?

~~~
RijilV
"NoDak" is a bad example - that state is fairly well off and organized. Years
ago they got it their head that having 100% cell coverage was a good idea so
they did it. New federal recommendations for shoulder width so they went and
redid their roads. The /tiny/ ILEC that serves my family farm years ago ripped
out all of their copper and only runs fiber.

If someone got it in their head that non-gas cars were what they should be
doing in North Dakota, it would happen.

I think poorer states with more conflicted interest would have a harder time.

(Sorry for the OT NoDak rant)

~~~
pythonaut_16
Are you saying that NoDak has generally available fiber internet at reasonable
prices?

~~~
RijilV
In the rural parts of the state, yes. That ends up being roughly 60% of the
state[0]. In terms of pricing, my family who's nearest neighbors are over a
mile away pay less each month than I do for more bandwidth than I get, and I
live in a major tech hub.

There's a bit of encouragement from the state government and the rural
providers also get free money that everyone else in these United [sic] States
pays on their telecommunications bills. However it is still a good example of
what can be accomplished in consumer Internet if not for the mega-corporations
we have doing it today. If a small provider who's customers are frequently
over a mile apart can do fiber to the home, why can't we have the same in
metros?

The one disadvantage is the transit providers they plug into aren't the best -
IIRC I was going through cogent in MSP to get to most popular cloud providers.
Their network is worth looking at though[1][2]

0: [http://www.csgmidwest.org/policyresearch/0616-fiber-optic-
No...](http://www.csgmidwest.org/policyresearch/0616-fiber-optic-North-
Dakota.aspx)

1:
[http://dakotacarrier.com/services/overview/](http://dakotacarrier.com/services/overview/)
2: [http://broadband.nd.gov/nd-broadband-map](http://broadband.nd.gov/nd-
broadband-map)

------
Animats
"Stanford University economist Tony Seba" is not a real Stanford faculty
member. He's a "thought leader" and "keynote speaker". It says so right on his
web site.[1] He lectures at Stanford Continuing Studies, which is Stanford's
edutainment night school. Current courses there include "Great Opera
Performance" and "The History of Wine". There are no admission requirements
for students. (I've taken a class there taught by a former personnel manager
for a major hotel chain. Good insights on how to hire maids.)

[1] [http://tonyseba.com/](http://tonyseba.com/)

------
michaelbuckbee
I agree with the other comments here that the timeline is a likely too
aggressive, but it's probably not too early to start thinking in "death
spiral" terms for a big chunk of the oil and gas industry.

It's not crazy to predict a pretty vicious feedback loop where at 15-25% EV
car usage that gas stations start closing, more EV cars are sold so further
gas stations close, as demand falls even further, even more close, etc.

I still feel like there are some weird brand/identity aspects to the denialism
about the EV future.

If I introduced a gas powered vehicle tomorrow that:

\- Had 1/3 the parts of today's vehicles

\- Cost 1/10th the energy per mile

\- Would work for 90% of people's commutes

\- Comparable sticker price

There'd be no question that it would massive disrupt the current
infrastructure.

~~~
AnimalMuppet
> It's not crazy to predict a pretty vicious feedback loop where at 15-25% EV
> car usage that gas stations start closing...

OK.

> ... more EV cars are sold so further gas stations close...

Not so fast. For this to be a feedback loop, the first set of gas stations
closing needs to _cause_ more EV cars to be sold (presumably because it's less
convenient to buy gas). But if 15-25% of the gas stations closed, that might
mean that there are 8 instead of 10 within a 2 mile radius around my house.
That's not going to be the tipping factor in making me decide to buy an EV.

------
pascalxus
He's right about the general direction things are going, but I don't think
it'll go that fast, nowhere near that fast. Anyways, I like it. Cleaner air,
and reduced maintenance costs. As for gas powered cars disappearing
completely, it remains to be seen if electric cars can compete with gas
powered cars on price - electric still has a lot of work to do in this area.

Sounds like someone shorted the oil industry and is hoping to make a killing.

~~~
_jal
Sounds like an academic wants attention.

The replacement rate for the consumer-fleet is, depending on who's counting,
somewhere between 10.2[1] or 11.5 years (can't share the source).

So right there, the prediction requires millions of car owners to find more
value in switching than the cost of 2.2+ car-years. Granted, network-effect
pickup is not linear, but I have difficulty seeing how that happens. I still
see commercial interstate transport as the first place we see real change, and
would be surprised if eight years from now 50% of long-haul trucks are
automated. The sunk costs in gasoline infrastructure are _enormous_ , and I
just don't see the countervailing pressure to force abandoning it without what
I would consider frankly draconian legislation[2], and now.

And you can guess my estimate of those odds.

[1] [https://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/08/study-shows-
that...](https://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/08/study-shows-that-car-
replacement-has-slowed/)

[2] For reference, I'm pretty far on the "you climate-denier morons are
killing us all" side. I just don't see how you destroy that much wealth with
anything not draconian.

~~~
nfriedly
I'm still driving a 2001 civic (if it ain't broke...), so I can believe an
average of 10-11 years.

------
newyankee
I wish, if not 2030 at least 2040, this report is one extreme. The other
extreme are reports published by Oil industries that predict 10% EV
penetration even around 2030 or 2040 which are laughable as well given how
much tech changed in just 5 years

------
woopwoop
"Crude oil prices will drop by half in eight years" seems like the kind of
thing you go bet on and make a lot of money off of, not the kind of thing you
publish in an article on the internet.

~~~
excalibur
Or perhaps you publish an article to influence the market and increase the
profitability of your bet.

------
rhino369
This won't happen until EVs roughly hit price parity with ICE. Most people
aren't willing to pay more for an EV. Many people would pay a premium for ICE
(for ease of refueling).

But once EVs are cheaper the change will happen quickly. But quickly in terms
cars still isn't fast. Even if another ICE was never built or imported to the
USA, it would probably take about 8 years for EVs to the majority. We keep old
cars around for a long while.

Also, a lot of people assume self driving and electric go hand in hand. But
really, there is no reason they need to. In fact, if you really do have a
fleet of cars, that might make EVs less attractive due to charge time. Though
you can make it work anyway.

~~~
syncsynchalt
Not long then, a Chevy Bolt's only twice a Honda Fit. ICE cars won't disappear
in eight years (as the article claims), but I could see price parity in that
time.

------
fnovd
I'm hopeful that self-driving electric cars will become the norm in the next
10 years, but I don't think it will kill the fossil fuel industry. A 50%
discount on crude, fueled by decreased demand for personal transportation,
simply gives more freedom to other industries that rely on fossil fuels.
Imagine how cheap an international flight might be, for example. Efficiency
will be gained in other sectors.

------
FussyZeus
As I've said I don't know how many times before in these threads: This doesn't
take into account, not even rural areas, but areas that are simply not
metropolitan cities. The idea of vehicles-on-demand out here where I live,
where I still commute between farmers fields, is utterly laughable. Who on
Earth is going to buy them and operate them? And where is everyone going to
warrant the service?

More to the point, when you're doing things with your vehicles that don't
involve just moving from A to B with a laptop case, the idea of sharing
vehicles gets a little more complicated. A good 4/5 of my friends have done
some kind of modification to their cars, not adding spoilers or that nonsense,
but changing how they work to do a job better than they did before. Add to it
other tasks like towing equipment, pulling other vehicles loose from mud,
plowing snow, on and on and this idea that no-emissions EV's are going to
replace all of this is frankly stupid and shows once again the disconnect
between a whole LOT of the US alone and I'd imagine elsewhere and the cities.

I'm not saying gas is forever, it is obviously going away and you'd be stupid
to say otherwise. But to say that because Tesla and Chevrolet has made an
admittedly perfectly good and arguably attractive alternative to the compact
runabout used by a lot of city dwellers who hate driving anyway means that all
gas powered cars are going away is fucking absurd. The only EV I know of
capable of towing ANYTHING is the Tesla Model X, and even then it's towing
capabilities have gotten extremely mixed reviews, ranging from complaints
about the range absolutely plummeting when anything of substance is being
moved, to the vehicle not handling the strain on the rear axle well.

I know I'm in the minority here on HN not living in a huge city with
infrastructure aplenty who's ready to bail on cars forever, but seriously,
there is so much ground to cover yet for EVs.

~~~
6d6b73
"This doesn't take into account, not even rural areas, but areas that are
simply not metropolitan cities. "

The report takes that into consideration that's why it states that "95 percent
of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous
electric vehicles owned by fleets". Simply, you fit in that 5% left.

~~~
goatlover
What's going to happen to all the existing cars on the road in the next 8
years?

~~~
danielharan
Mostly scrap. If you're in the market for a vehicle, do you take a gas-powered
car with high operational and maintenance cost, or do you buy one with low
costs?

Most people won't even buy, as it's cheaper and faster to rely on a self-
driving vehicle that picks you up like a taxi would.

Existing cars are about as valuable in those scenarios as a horse and buggy.

~~~
goatlover
Quite a few people were I live own trucks or SUVs. Also, we have buses here,
but the only people who ride them are ones without cars. People do take Uber
of course, but that's generally when they're not in a state to drive, or they
don't have their car in walking distance.

~~~
danielharan
"car in walking distance" is going to seem nonsensical very soon. These
changes are predicated on autonomous vehicles.

~~~
goatlover
I have a hard time seeing it be very soon outside of major cities, where "car
in walking distance" has always been somewhat nonsensical given the ubiquitous
public transportation.

------
tuxidomasx
How will the police patrol roads when all these cars are self-driving?

Police forces will either need less patrol officers or they'll need to re-
assign them somewhere other than roads. Or maybe surveillance inside vehicles
to prevent any crimes being committed whilst in-transit.

What happens when someone decides to drive a non-autonomous car on the road?
If they are banned someone is going to need to pull them over. If there are
less police officers patrolling the roads, who will be doing all this
enforcing of self-driving cars?

I like futuristic projections in that we really don't know how things will
settle after a shake-up.

------
HutchSaxony
Yes, and the suburbs are dying:

[https://www.amazon.com/End-Suburbs-Where-American-
Moving/dp/...](https://www.amazon.com/End-Suburbs-Where-American-
Moving/dp/1591846978/)

Except, of course, that they aren't:

[http://www.newgeography.com/content/005610-d-j-vu-and-
dilemm...](http://www.newgeography.com/content/005610-d-j-vu-and-dilemma-
planners)

------
gjem97
The problem is that the feedback loop on the commodity side goes in the wrong
direction for a "death spiral". A reduction in the number of gasoline burners
on the road causes a reduction in the price of gasoline, which makes gasoline
burners MORE attractive, not less. Also because turnover on automobiles is
slow, 8 years seems much too fast, if it ever happens at all.

------
rrggrr
Not having to pump gas in the freezing cold. I don't need any other reason to
drive an EV. Not this one in particular:

>“The electric drive-train is so much more powerful. The gasoline and diesel
cars cannot possibly compete,” Seba said. The parallel is what happened to
film cameras – and to Kodak – once digital rivals hit the market. It was swift
and brutal

------
anovikov
I don't buy it because people don't buy cars for efficiency, they buy it as
status symbol. So no, autonomous-vehicles-on-demand won't kill personal cars.
They'd still make life easier in foreign trips though. And BMW can still make
expensive electric cars and make profit happily.

Oil producers are indeed in trouble.

~~~
goatlover
Also, for convenience for families and people who haul stuff in the back of
their trucks. Is soccer mom going to be using autonomous vehicles to haul her
kids around?

------
bencollier49
This is a remarkable load of hogwash. Wish it wasn't, though.

------
HillaryBriss
curious how this will play out in the long-haul truck routes across the
Australian Outback.

on the one hand it's currently large diesel or gas powered trucks with very
large fuel tanks and few service/fuel stations en route.

on the other hand, if a 600 horsepower electric truck could be recharged at
solar powered charging stations spaced out more frequently on all these remote
roads -- well, they _do_ have plenty of sunshine down there.

------
vkou
And, presumably, most of the United States will starve to death?

Tractors? Semis? Diesel trains? How exactly will we electrify those? In 8
years?

My girlfriend drives a 20-year old ICE vehicle. I suppose everyone with a
5-year old ICE vehicle will just ditch theirs, and buy a brand-new, $35,000 EV
by 2025?

~~~
6d6b73
If you read the report you would know that this is not what they are claiming.
The report bases everything on a simple assumption - it will be much more
expensive to own the car vs to have one rented to drive you to your
destination. Also the report talks mainly about the passenger cars, but
electrifying semis and tractors is not really that unrealistic.

~~~
goatlover
I don't see this being realistic or even desireable for the majority of people
outside major cities in countries like the US.

------
eveningcoffee

      Cities will ban human drivers 
    

Except it goes against basic human liberties like freedom of movement.

~~~
6d6b73
Unless your liberty to drive your car infringes on my liberty to breath a
clean air.

~~~
AnimalMuppet
That's not related at all. A human can drive an electric car.

~~~
eveningcoffee
Exactly. Banning cars with a combustion engine in the cities in the near
future would be a really welcome step, but considering how large investment it
would require then I do not think that it would really happen before than
10-15 years after wider adoption of electric engines.

------
iandanforth
No, they won't.

------
OliverJones
It's a shame these financial press editors are so naive.

I'm an electric transportation fanboy. I'm a Tesla Motors customer and I have
a photovoltaic array on my roof. I've done these things because I'm an early
adopter, not because they're even marginally cost effective in 2017.

The economics aren't happening for an EV tipping point in one decade.
Certainly not in the vast US.

Why not? Because: the places people in Sili Valley call "flyover country."
Because: utility companies. Because: recharging time. Because: infrastructure.
In the US, we have our own kind upper class twits (cf Monty Python). Many of
them live in Sili Valley. The guy who wrote this study is a candidate for that
honorific.

EVs require widespread charging capability. I'm lucky. I own my own house, and
I had the money (til I spent it) to upgrade my electric service and get my 40A
charging port installed. It cost money, and it leveraged resources (house,
driveway) I already own.

The charging rate at 40A is about 26 mph: one plugged-in hour gets me 26 miles
of range. It all works for me: it's my car, and I sleep. Still, a fossil-fuel
vehicle can take on a full load of fuel in a few minutes.

What about apartment dwellers? There may be a few apartment developments
offering charging ports. But not many. It's costly to add that stuff. Tell
landlords they have to install charging ports at the rate of one or two per
apartment, by 2022. Let us know how those conversations go.

It's true that car charging is a time-shiftable load, so it won't require a
lot of extra peak-load generation capacity. But for time shifting to work at
scale we need to persuade the electric utilities to implement some sort of
"smart grid." It takes years of regulatory battles to do easy stuff. And the
"smart grid" is hard. Tell the legislatures, bought and paid for by big
companies, they'll be compelling utilities to adopt smart grids in five years.
Let us know how those conversations go.

OK, OK, those things aren't important, because robot uber. Because of self-
driving hired vehicles. Visit Ohio or New Mexico. Tell the third-shift nurse
she'll be taking cabs to work from now on. Tell the electrician who rigged my
40A port she won't own the van she drives to work sites, and won't even
control it. Let us know how those conversations go.

Telll robot uber's investors they have to pony up the capital for all those
robot taxicabs, and the insurance costs for operating them 365 days a year
rain or shine, sleet or snow. Let us know how that conversation goes.

Yes, electrified transport is the future. Yes, peak oil will look like
declining oil prices and gas stations getting steadily shabbier as demand
dries up and margins get thinner. But is it gonna "tip" by 2027 in the USA?
no. In Norway and Singapore? Maybe.

