
Houston is a sitting duck for the next big hurricane (2016) - meneoh1
https://www.propublica.org/article/hell-and-high-water-text
======
adolph
Hey HN, thank you to Federal taxpayers, who funded matching grants to bayou
and watershed changes that, even in an incomplete state, have saved many
houses and people. The article focuses on an incomplete big set piece that if
fully funded would have likely starved the myriad smaller improvements that
have made life better for a large number of people and done nothing for this
week's disaster.

Everywhere I go I see the things people have done to mitigate weather events:
* commercial buildings with high water dams * freeway underpass pumping
stations * new suburban neighborhoods and commercial centers with large water
retention zones that become parks and playing fields in the 99% of the time
they aren't underwater * infill housing in existing neighborhoods that is
raised on piers to protect people without displacing water needlessly *
regional sized water retention ponds for established neighborhoods that have
become wetlands for migratory waterfowl and local wildlife.

Is there a lot left to be done? Sure. Could what is being done be done better?
Sure, we learn all the time. I think learning is the reason why the current
semi-organic approach is sound. The glass may be half empty or half full, but
the fill rate is moving in a direction of increased storm resilience (which
this week is toward empty for sure ).

------
hoodoof
Three Years After Sandy, Is New York Prepared for the Next Big Storm?
[https://insideclimatenews.org/news/29102015/three-years-
afte...](https://insideclimatenews.org/news/29102015/three-years-after-sandy-
new-york-prepared-next-big-storm)

California ill-prepared for the Big One, experts say
[https://phys.org/news/2016-07-california-ill-prepared-big-
ex...](https://phys.org/news/2016-07-california-ill-prepared-big-experts.html)

What Would Happen If Yellowstone's Supervolcano Erupted?
[https://www.livescience.com/20714-yellowstone-
supervolcano-e...](https://www.livescience.com/20714-yellowstone-supervolcano-
eruption.html)

America’s Crumbling Dams Are A Disaster Waiting To Happen
[http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/america-crumbling-
dam...](http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/america-crumbling-dam-
infrastructure_us_573a332be4b08f96c183deac)

Scientists say Seattle’s overdue earthquake could happen within 50 years
[http://mynorthwest.com/12944/scientists-say-seattles-
overdue...](http://mynorthwest.com/12944/scientists-say-seattles-overdue-
earthquake-could-happen-within-50-years/)

Ancient aliens are hibernating on Earth – and they are waiting to ATTACK -
shock claims [http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-
news/618941/ancient-a...](http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-
news/618941/ancient-aliens-hibernating-underneath-earth-attack-invasion-
encelladus-trappist-1-NASA)

There's nothing particularly interesting about old articles that appear to
have predicted current events.

When it happens, someone will dig up the old article saying "are we ready for
the floobledasch EVENT?!!!"

~~~
matt_s
Prepared or not, I think there is some element of it being really hard to get
funding to go fix things proactively vs. tapping into a Federal organization
which will fund the aftermath.

I wonder if there have been studies comparing the costs? The hurricane is
coming either way and there will be a need to cleanup.

Its the same in some software organizations, fixing things so they are right
takes a lot of convincing vs. band-aids when the problem comes up.

~~~
honestoHeminway
YAGNI. What a great gravestone inscription.

------
Sukotto
I found this "floodsplainer" series of tweets informative about Houston's
flood-mitigation infrastructure efforts.

[https://twitter.com/CorbettMatt/status/901959336850804737](https://twitter.com/CorbettMatt/status/901959336850804737)

~~~
LeifCarrotson
That was a painful way to read that informative content. Here it is in a more
readable form, links at the end, abbreviations like 'HTX' replaced with the
complete words, sentences and paragraphs consolidated. Inline links might be
nice, but HN-formatting works a whole lot better than this ridiculous
"twitstream". Links are in my comment below:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15124561](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15124561)
because the whole thing was too large to fit in one HN comment. Much less a
140-character tweet.

 _A Houston floodsplainer, by Matt Corbett_ [caveat]

There will inevitably be extreme hottakes regarding flood planning and monday-
morning quarterbacking of officials. This is for context. Some good links: [1]
[2] [3] [4].

Houston is on a flat, mostly featureless plain, which is naturally drained by
a number of Bayous. ("The Bayou City" refers to Houston, not New Orleans.) The
bayous all run (and drain) from west to east, converging on either the ship
channel or San Jacinto Bay.

It also has varying development density. Here's a satellite photo which will
roughly show that density: [Sat pic] (Note: I've highlighted 2 areas- Addicks
& Barker reservoirs and the medical center, because I'll mention them later).

Houston has sandy soil and a high water table, and so has some limited ability
to rely on absorption. (Related: No houses have basements and it would be
nearly impossible to construct a subway.) Most of Houston is ~35-45'/12m above
sea level.

Flooding risk is almost entirely from rain, not storm surges. Being on the
Gulf Coast, Houston gets ~50" of rain a year. Gulf thunderstorms can get
intense. Four-to-six-inches-in-8-hours storms happen about once a year.
Flooding is essentially a rate problem: can you drain the water as fast as it
comes? When the answer is 'no', water backs up along the drainage routes. [Sat
pic with drainage routes] As a result, any person's flooding risk is mainly
about proximity and elevation vs the nearest bayou.

The primary backups for the bayous handling too much water are the roads. In
the 90s, Houston was getting large enough that relying on groundwater was
starting to cause subsidence problems. The powers that be decided (wisely,
mostly) to slowly convert all the roads into a giant rain collection network,
so every time an asphalt road needed to be repaved, it got replaced with curb
& gutter concrete with a big storm sewer underneath. This has been highly
obnoxious to anyone living nearby when such a project was underway, but
ultimately quite effective. It usually means that in flooding situations,
roads briefly become rivers and then drain, saving houses from flood damage,
but it's also a work in progress that has proceeded at the rate roads needed
replacing, and it varies greatly by location.

The next backup for water are sections of freeways. Here, for example, is a
section of I-69/US-59 (as [indicated on map].) Given the flood risk indication
of the neighborhood immediately south, that sunken section serves a flood-
relief purpose: [Flooded freeway]

Thus, flood control in Houston is and has been in a continual state of upgrade
for 20 years. However, Houston has also been growing rapidly in that time,
adding about 100-125 thousand people per year for 15 years. The result of this
growth is that at any given time the flood control has been adequate, but only
for the city T-5 years ago, not now. The currently least-adequate parts are
usually around the geographic periphery and immediately downstream.

The key incidents forming city officials' decision making have been the
experiences of Allison (2001), Rita (2005), Ike (2008) and the flooding events
of the past 2 years (Memorial Day 2015 and Tax Day 2016).

Conceptually, Harvey is closest to Allison, which was a tropical storm that
parked itself over Houston for 3 days and dumped 20" of rain [Tropical Storm
Allison wiki]. A key quote:

> _Despite massive flooding damage to entire neighborhoods there were no
> drowning deaths in flooded homes. In the area, there were twelve deaths from
> driving, six from walking, three from electrocution, and one in an
> elevator._

Rita (2005) was a huge storm, occurring ~1 month after Katrina. For a few days
it was forecast to hit Houston directly, but it ultimately drifted eastwards
and hit Port Arthur. Given the recent experience of Katrina, an evacuation was
(very understandbly) ordered. The result, as described in an [Aman Batheja
tweetstorm]:

> _...as the Houston Mayor debated evacuation, he had to weigh whether he was
> directing millions to sit in traffic as Harvey reached landfall, and also
> whether he might be creating thousands of new people who refuse to evacuate
> ever again._

Hurricane Ike (2008) is least directly relevant- in Houston it caused immense
damage but comparatively little flooding and death except in the medical
center, which lost power, and sustained lots of flood damage. The med center
is an utterly critical component of Houston, and understandably a high
priority for flood control. It employs ~150k people, conducts enormous amounts
of cutting-edge research, and most importantly, at any given time has a large
number of very sick, very immobile patients. It has therefore received (again,
understandably) disproportionate flood-control attention in the past decade,
but often at the expense of other areas in the city.

The other section I highlighted was the [Addicks & Barker reservoirs]. They
are flood control reservoirs that date from the 1930s. They remain highly
useful and functional, but given Houston's growth are now inadequate to the
nearby area, which is where the worst flooding in Allison occurred. They are
the focus of the Texas Tribune article linked above under [Good link 3], and
I'd guess that's where the worst flooding will happen this time.

With all that background, now for the city's Harvey choices:

As of mid-last week, it was forecast that Harvey would produce "up to Allison"
levels of rainfall. That was when any evacuation order would have had to be
made. It's not possible to evacuate all of Houston inside of 48 hours. Too
many people, not enough roads or time, and Houston would inherently be a lower
priority than people closer to the coast. City & state leaders knew the
rainfall would be very, very bad. But the experiences of Allison & Rita would
lead to the belief that evacuation, especially on short notice, would lead to
more death than hunkering down. Also, given that roads & freeways [flood] BY
DESIGN, "stuck on the road" is the absolute worst, most dangerous place to be,
thus an evacuation that stranded people mid-storm would be worst-case
scenario. Embedded in that is a gamble that emergency services will be able to
rescue people at the rate they become endangered.

That's a hard choice to make, and it will be examined for a long, long time
[with] 20/20 hindsight. But decisions have to be judged by the best
information available at the time, and at the time, it was justifiable.
Perhaps on closer examination it will have been the wrong choice, but it is an
entirely defensible one.

Many have noticed something of a gap a gap between Mayor Turner and Governor
Abbott on this choice and hinted some sort of R/D partisan issue. More
relevant is likely the Governor's handicap. Famously, within Texas, Governor
Abbott is in a wheelchair, and is thus highly sensitive to the risks for
people with limited mobility, who of course are/would be in the most danger if
hunkering down proves the wrong choice. So the Governor likely has a different
sense of risk than does the Mayor. This doesn't make it right or wrong, just a
different value judgement. Judgement calls are as much about being able to
live with a choice being wrong as they are about picking the outcome one
thinks will be best. It's easy to see both sides of this one.

Addendum: Bill King, who narrowly lost to Turner for mayor, emphatically says
Turner made the right call: [Times op-ed]. @MichaelBerrySho, former
councilman, & frequent Turner critic also 100% agreed on the no-evacuation
call: [Michael Berry tweetstorm].

> _This is a complicated issue, & awful damage, but not ordering an evac was
> the correct decision. I ran for mayor AGAINST @SylvesterTurner. I've fought
> w/@EdEmmett. & I am SUPPORTING their good decisions during #Harvey._

~~~
LeifCarrotson
[caveat]: I'm not a pro, just someone interested in how my city works. If a
real pro finds an error, please let me know.)

[Good link 1]
[https://www.harriscountyfws.org/](https://www.harriscountyfws.org/)

[Good link 2] [https://spacecityweather.com/](https://spacecityweather.com/)

[Good link 3] [https://www.texastribune.org/boomtown-
floodtown/](https://www.texastribune.org/boomtown-floodtown/)

[Good link 4]
[http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/cctv/transtar/](http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/cctv/transtar/)

[Sat pic]
[https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIRoKVNVYAAuzPc.jpg](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIRoKVNVYAAuzPc.jpg)

[Sat pic with drainage routes]
[https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIRokT7UwAEr53H.jpg](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIRokT7UwAEr53H.jpg)

[Freeway indicated on map]
[https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIRpK4-V4AAephw.jpg](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIRpK4-V4AAephw.jpg)

[Flooded freeway]
[https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIRpUBsVYAA2Gld.jpg](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIRpUBsVYAA2Gld.jpg)

[Tropical Storm Allison wiki]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Allison](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Allison)

[Aman Batheja tweetstorm]
[https://twitter.com/amanbatheja/status/901867083608285184](https://twitter.com/amanbatheja/status/901867083608285184):

The debate of whether Houston should have issued a mandatory evacuation is
more complicated than many probably realize. In 2005, the evacuation of
Hurricane Rita was a bigger calamity than the hurricane itself:
[https://apps.texastribune.org/road-from-rita/taking-on-
traff...](https://apps.texastribune.org/road-from-rita/taking-on-traffic/).
For days, major highways looked like parking lots. Dozens died before Rita
even reached Texas.

> _Of the 139 deaths that the state linked to Hurricane Rita, 73 occurred
> before Rita reached Texas. Twenty-three people died in a bus fire. Ten
> others died from hyperthermia due to heat exposure._

It was clear in hindsight that many evacuees would have been better off riding
out the storm at home. Texas took measures to improve future evacuations but
state officials admitted to me in 2015 that they weren't enough. 3 years
later, the Texas evacuation ahead of Hurricane Ike went much better. But
that's partly because of this:

> _The Ike evacuation was also aided by tens of thousands of residents
> refusing orders to leave. For many, that decision was driven by the still-
> fresh memory of Rita._

Texas has grown like gangbusters since Rita. Growth in highway capacity hasn't
come close to matching that.

> _Between 2005 and 2014, the population of a 40-county area covering
> southeast Texas and the Gulf Coast grew by 20 percent, or more than 1.5
> million people. Over the same period, highway lane miles in that region grew
> by just 5 percent, or 1,707 miles, according to state data._

Houston is the 4th largest city in the country with 2.3 million people. So as
Houston Mayor debated evacuation, he had to weigh whether he was directing
millions to sit in traffic as Harvey reached landfall, and also whether he
might be creating thousands of new people who refuse to evacuate ever again.
This is not a defense of Sylvester Turner's decision not to evacuate Houston.
Just offering context of how complicated the decision was.

[Addicks & Barker reservoirs] [http://www.swg.usace.army.mil/Missions/Dam-
Safety-Program/](http://www.swg.usace.army.mil/Missions/Dam-Safety-Program/)

[Times op-ed] [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/28/opinion/harvey-
flooding-m...](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/28/opinion/harvey-flooding-
mayor-evacuation.html)

[Michael Berry tweetstorm]
[https://twitter.com/MichaelBerrySho/status/90237864039826636...](https://twitter.com/MichaelBerrySho/status/902378640398266368)
\- not going to break this one out, lest I reproduce all of Twitter.

------
rurban
And now you see how ridiculous this "Ike Dike" idea was. It would have
protected nothing. The problem was and is is still the massive rain falls, not
the incoming storm surge.

Energy industry could easily build such a "Ike Dike" but why should the city
of Houston do such a thing? Bush lobbied strongly for it on behalf of the
energy guys, but didn't get it. Now you see why.

~~~
manyoso
And with climate change it will continue to be hard to predict these events
other than to say that if you are near the coast... good luck.

~~~
FTA
I have not seen any evidence in journals that climate change will inherently
reduce predictability of short or medium range weather forecasts. I believe
you're implying that without climate change we could somehow be predicting
hurricanes years ahead of time in the current year, which is really not the
case.

~~~
bonesss
> ... climate change will [not] inherently reduce predictability of short or
> medium range weather forecasts

In the broad sense that's totally correct: weather will still be weather, and
the sensor data & computing resources we have to throw at prediction are only
getting better.

One aspect of this specific conversation relating to climate change, though,
would be the relative abruptness of multiple weather systems combining into
much larger storms. Sandy, for example, became a Frankenstorm in part due to
multiple slightly abnormal factors coming together. That trend should erode
predictability across multiple axes.

On the order of centuries, compared with the otherwise ability to predict
weather: I would expect to see a marginal decline in weather predictability as
more events, and more extreme events, are added to the atmospheric system.

------
zumu
Direct link to plain text version for those who prefer it:
[https://www.propublica.org/article/hell-and-high-water-
text](https://www.propublica.org/article/hell-and-high-water-text)

It is also linked from the article, but embarrassingly took me a minute to
find it.

------
unusximmortalis
We are all sitting ducks for next big natural disaster.

~~~
SolarNet
Yes, however every region has different natural disasters that can be prepared
for in different ways, so when they happen they cost many less lives.

------
frigen
Someone, at sometime, has previously predicted just about anything and
published it, making them appear prescient.

~~~
ghshephard
If you read the article you will see that it entirely _failed_ to predict what
just happened in Houston. The article goes on and on about Storm Surges, and
building Dikes - neither of which had anything to do with what just happened.

~~~
mohene1
ghshepard, true. The article focused on seawalls and surges, but still managed
to get the damage correct: 600,000 residents effected, $100 Billion in damage,
145 mph winds. Regardless, knowing the effects of the storm -shown through the
simulation - there could have been a plan for the ensuing catastrophe, e.g.
evacuating the city, relief efforts; which seem ad hoc.

