
The silent victims of the US embargo against Iran - kushti
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanonc/article/PIIS1470-2045(18)30751-4/fulltext
======
programmertote
I was born in Myanmar and grew up there for more than two decades. The impact
of economic sanctions are felt not by the ruling class (the military
generals), but by the average citizen. Looking back, I firmly believe that
sanctions simply deteriorates the human capital and resource (and thus the
potential to spur any progressive change) rather than creating any sort of
difficulty for the military.

Because of the sanctions, there's always constant emigration and drained my
country of a lot of intelligent and hard working people. We are still
suffering from that and the current democratically elected government can't
easily find competent people to help rebuild the country...

~~~
dsfyu404ed
Gutting the lower classes is how you punish the ruling class. Ruling class A
wants to make ruling class B hurt so they hurt the people from whom ruling
class B derives its wealth. Sucks but it's how things work.

~~~
athenot
That only works if ruling class B actually cares. The traditional line of
thinking is to spur revolt but the power imbalance is now a lot stronger than,
e.g. 1789 France.

~~~
dsfyu404ed
The upper classes don't need to be deposed via revolt. Diminishing their
wealth and influence to the point where they can no longer do whatever it was
that pissed you off in the first place is good enough. For example, if nobody
was buying Saudi oil they wouldn't have the money to spend fighting a war in
Yemen.

------
boomboomsubban
It's important to remember that US actions have consequences like this. No
matter how poorly you think the Iranian government is behaving, our actions
toward their country have led to hundreds of thousands of dead Iranians over
the years. There is good reason for countries to doubt "US assistance," and
further intrusion will likely cause tremendous suffering for their citizens.

~~~
sonnyblarney
"our actions toward their country have led to hundreds of thousands of dead
Iranians over the years."

This false and inflammatory, moreover, 'sanctions' are totally unrelated to
'assistance'.

Today, Iran can de-facto trade with most of the world either directly or
through intermediaries. The purpose of any embargo is to weaken a state
economically, not withhold specific medicines, obviously.

~~~
AriaMinaei
> Today, Iran can de-facto trade with most of the world either directly or
> through intermediaries. The purpose of any embargo is to weaken a state
> economically, not withhold specific medicines, obviously

This is not true. Even opening a foreign bank account (necessary for trade) is
impossible for Iranians companies, making trade extremely difficult for all
companies.

European banks are legally permitted to trade with Iranian companies, but the
threat of fines from the U.S bars all of them from doing so.

> The purpose of any embargo is to weaken a state economically, not withhold
> specific medicines, obviously.

In reality, one of the immediate effects of sanctions is scarcity of medicine.

Source: I lived there through the Obama-era sanctions.

~~~
acct1771
This perspective would make an excellent NYT piece.

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gumby
The idea of these constraints on trade is to push ordinary people to the point
where they rise up and overthrow the regime. This is the same reason for so-
called strategic bombing where you bomb civilians in the hope of the same aim.
Neither has ever been demonstrated to be effective.

(as a side point the use of the term "sanction" in this way became annoyingly
weird in the 1990s -- it's actually sanctioning a _restriction_ on trade).

~~~
devoply
The only reason you can get away with this sort of thing is because Americans
have never had to experience these sorts of policies or any of the other
things that they do to other people. If they had they would change their
minds.

At the end all these policies are to steal resources, and have nothing to do
with human rights.

That being said Iran's government needs to be pushed into the sea.

~~~
LifeLiverTransp
Well you could see the hipocrisiy it in the cuba-missile crisis. All of europe
was expected live under direct missile thread- and the same was to be expected
for the russians (missiles in turkey) - but as soon as the very same standards
apply to gods chosen country, it was considered worth starting world war 3 to
stop that.

So much for equality, so much for freedom.

~~~
Mirioron
I've wondered for a long time whether the US (and Europe) would get into so
many conflicts if their own civilians were put at risk as well. The US was
fighting a war in the Middle East, but back home it was business as usual.

------
Synaesthesia
It’s really inexcusable to have sanctions on essential lifesaving drugs.

~~~
LifeLiverTransp
Well, its actually exuseable, due to chemistry. Given enough energy, almost
everything can be made dualuse.

Add to that the effect of government bureaucracy trying to make there
decisions future proof and voila.

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xhdix
In the same circumstances, Iran sent 200 tons of medicine to Iraq. The Islamic
Republic lied. Medicine and food are not under US sanctions. This is the
oppression of the Islamic Republic's mafia to the Iranian people.

[https://www.isna.ir/news/97071810369/%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1%DA%A...](https://www.isna.ir/news/97071810369/%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1%DA%AF%DB%8C%D8%B1%DB%8C-%DB%B2%DB%B0%DB%B0-%D8%AA%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%88-%D9%88-%D8%AA%D8%AC%D9%87%DB%8C%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%B1%D9%81%DB%8C-%D9%BE%D8%B2%D8%B4%DA%A9%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82)

~~~
forkerenok
There is difference between trading medicine and just "sending" it.

I think this comment explains the issue well:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19481707](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19481707)

~~~
xhdix
The Iranian government can communicate anywhere ... sell something or buy
something. I live in Iran, and I see that the Islamic Republic's mafia instead
of buying medicines and food supplies its capital to suppress people in Iran
and promote violence and assassination elsewhere in the world. They kill the
Syrian people, and tell the people of Iran that I am defending you.

They can buy medicines for their people instead of buying weapons. Surely
buying medicine is more convenient. But the Islamic Republic's mafia is just
thinking of itself.

------
emiliobumachar
Suppose Iran passed a law invalidating all patents of drugs it cannot buy on
the market at market prices. Possibly appointing an agency to sort out which
ones they are exactly and publish lists. Any drug featured in such lists would
be thereby clear for anyone to manufacture in Iran.

What would the consequences be?

~~~
A2017U1
India blatantly does this already. They've cancelled valid patents when it
suits them. To add insult to injury they also sell huge amounts back to
America, it's their biggest pharma export market.

Ive seen estimates around tens of billions of lost revenue from US biotech
companies every year.

~~~
AsyncAwait
> They've cancelled valid patents when it suits them.

You mean when it has the potential to save millions of lives vs pay less in
pharma CEO bonuses?

> Ive seen estimates around tens of billions of lost revenue from US biotech
> companies every year.

Cry me a river.

~~~
A2017U1
It's actually incredibly harmful to Indians, the healthcare costs gained
aren't much, medicines are licensed for a fraction of what consumers pay in
the West.

Yet because of their incredibly weak IP protections many drug companies are
reluctant to sell there. Hundreds of medicines simply aren't available despite
being released a decade earlier and Indians in need have to pay European
prices for access to modern pharmaceuticals. It's entirely destroyed any
chance for local r&d too.

It's not a net benefit.

I'm all for sticking it to the Man and especially criticising big pharma but
suggest reconsidering your viewpoint here.

[https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2014/09/09/indian...](https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2014/09/09/indian-
patients-suffer-from-indias-weak-pharmaceutical-patents)

------
humanrebar
The article seems to be lacking some context:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_and_state-
sponsored_terro...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_and_state-
sponsored_terrorism)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran)

~~~
boomboomsubban
Sorry, but how the hell does that justify allowing children with cancer to
suffer and die?

------
Udik
It is so frustrating that the EU doesn't have the capacity or the courage to
stand up against these unjustified and illegal sanctions. We really are
powerless in the face of the whims of a capricious fool and his warmongering
friends.

~~~
matt4077
That's also... largely not true?

Europe was the only party that ever had /any/ power. The US did not have much
of an economic relationship with Iran to begin with. Therefore, their
sanctions were mostly symbolic. It was EU sanctions that eventually forced
Iran to the negotiating table and made the nuclear deal possible. As the
article shows, the US has the power to be _cruel_. But the price being paid is
humanitarian, not economic.

Accordingly, in succeeds only in killing children, not creating pressure. This
is best shown by Iran's decision to stay in the JCPOA. The US is being
ignored, because it is comparably irrelevant in purely economic terms.

The EU has also passed legislation prohibiting EU companies from implement US
sanctions and indemnifying them against US fines:
[https://www.bbc.com/news/world-
europe-45085205](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45085205). And there's
an EU venture to replace US institutions in Iran-bound financial transactions:
[https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-
releases/2019...](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-
releases/2019/02/04/iran-council-adopts-conclusions/)

~~~
cm2187
I understand US sanctions ban any company doing business with the US to also
do business with Iran. Companies doing business with the US is pretty much
100% of large companies in the world. So US sanctions did affect all commerce
with Iran, not just US commerce with Iran.

~~~
matt4077
Yes. Read my comment again. Following that US attempt to change longstanding
international law is, in turn, illegal in the EU. Companies are indemnified
against damages, and the EU will presumably try to claw these back if it ever
comes so far.

Does something in all this need to give? Yes, definitely. Presumably, the US
will shy away from trying to enforce. If not, US courts are actually somewhat
likely to uphold long-standing precedents in international law, because the
only other possible outcome is a completely unworkable quagmire going forward
where no company could simultaneously operate in the EU and the US.

~~~
Udik
Unfortunately, things are not as you describe them. All the major EU companies
have ceased their trading with Iran, as risks are too high and of course it's
impossible to punish somebody for _not_ trading with a foreign country.

The only meaningful thing for the EU to do would be to retaliate by
sanctioning US companies and freezing US assets to compensate for the effect
of the US sanctions. Which would mean full scale economic war and sanctions on
the US, something the EU of course cannot afford.

~~~
Fjolsvith
The meaningful thing that needs to be done is that Iran needs to solve their
government problem.

If I recall, the US had to do something like that back in 1776, and Germany
had to have some assistance in it back in 1939-41.

Growing pains.

~~~
pjc50
Iran had a somewhat democratic government until the US overthrew it and
replaced it with a monarch in the 50s. Iran subsequently had another
revolution with a total purge of foreign influence in 1979. Subsequently a
huge number of Iranians were killed in the Iran-Iraq war, where the US
supported Iraq.

Modernization can happen, but only if it's not visibly pro US.

~~~
refurb
The US didn’t overthrow the Mossadegh gov’t in a coup. It did back the
opposition during a very turbulent time in Iranian history (massive protests
against the Mossadegh gov’t), but to say the gov’t would have survived in the
absence of US involvement is a major overstatement.

~~~
dragonwriter
> The US didn’t overthrow the Mossadegh gov’t in a coup.

On the contrary:

 _In August 2013, sixty years afterward, the U.S. government formally
acknowledged the U.S. role in the coup by releasing a bulk of previously
classified government documents that show it was in charge of both the
planning and the execution of the coup, including the bribing of Iranian
politicians, security and army high-ranking officials, as well as pro-coup
propaganda. The CIA is quoted acknowledging the coup was carried out "under
CIA direction" and "as an act of U.S. foreign policy, conceived and approved
at the highest levels of government"._

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d'état](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d'état)

~~~
refurb
Exactly. The CIA aligned itself with already existing groups within Iran to
lend assistance in the coup. People act like without the CIA Iran would be
some functioning democracy. Iran was a huge mess of competing factions at the
time. The Mossadegh gov't would have fallen regardless. The CIA just decided
to help out.

Very similar to what happened with Vietnam and the Diem regimen.

~~~
dragonwriter
> The CIA aligned itself with already existing groups within Iran to lend
> assistance in the coup.

No, it (and the British who actually started trying to pull off a coup first)
paid people and deployed propaganda from multiple different angles, and
including false flag operations, to energize _multiple_ , mutually
antagonistic factions in order to destabilize the Mossadegh regime; a lot of
the anti-Mossadegh opposition was organized crime groups paid by the CIA to
put up a front as political opposition. They didn't care about the politics;
they did care about the money.

Heck, even the Shah—the monarch who superficially seized total power in the
coup—was opposed until the CIA threatened to depose him as well if he didn't
go along.

~~~
refurb
Not sure your comment contradicts anything I wrote.

