
Ask HN: Is this a suckers rally? - sharemywin
anyone watch stocks close enough to predict?
======
PaulHoule
I would hate to try to predict.

Right now the economy is not that bad, but it is not that good either.

The P/E ratio is near the high end of "normal", which means if we got a 50%
rally in the next few years, we would be in bubble territory and I think that
would all get given up.

The long term factor is that there is too much capital built up, which is why
there is so much demand for US dollars, US government debt, etc. If they
really did anything to reduce the national debt it would create a crisis for
the international financial system since you really have to have a hole in
your head to buy EU debt, Chinese debt, etc.

It is heresy but I think a good burst of inflation would help align future
debts with reality. If I was boss I'd print money and give $100,000 to every
American. Trouble is it might wind up in the housing market or the stock
market and contribute to the problem, not the solution.

