
Facebook Is Dying - JumpCrisscross
https://medium.com/crypto-oracle/facebook-is-dying-libra-wont-save-it-wall-street-is-clueless-47243c17f107
======
imagetic
I dealt with a lot of high traffic live streaming video on Facebook for
several years. We saw interaction rates decline almost 20x in a 3 year period
but views kept increasing. Things just didn't add up when the dust settled and
we'd look at the stats.

It wouldn't be the least bit surprised if every stat FB has fed me was blown
extremely out of proportion.

I'd say about half my friends in their late 20s to their mid-late 30s have
deleted their Facebook. A majority of the other half of people I know have
deleted it off their phones. A majority of those are highly educated
professionals with a like-minded social circle in the Bay Area. None of which
are in the tech industry though.

My parents and their friends seem to use it regularly still, mostly cause it
was such a useful communication tool for a network they lost contact with.
Replaces an address book for them.

IG seems to be saturating a majority of phone screens I see in passing.
Usually stories. I have noticed a decline in my friends circle with that.
People are posting a lot less as of recent. As a media person, I'm seeing less
return from IG without an immense amount of effort. I believe the feed is far
beyond it's max saturation level. The same thing happened to Twitter for me.
You either have to go all in and game the system or relinquish all reliance on
it as an important media outlet.

There is no statistical base to my findings, just something I have observed.

~~~
rblion
100% been my experience too.

The people most reliant on social media are those that need it for 'staying in
touch' or to feed their ego, let's be real.

I know people who live one life online and one life in person without batting
an eye.

My experiences with ayahuasca and bufo have made me stop caring so much about
social media metrics. Life is so much grander away from 'likes' 'followers'
'comments'.

~~~
EForEndeavour
> My experiences with ayahuasca and bufo...

One of those sentences is not like the others.

~~~
AtlasBarfed
I did searches expecting them to be social media alternatives.

~~~
rblion
instead you found a doorway to a new paradigm of existence.

------
gopher2
There's like one sentence of "because I said so" analysis in this article. The
idea that Facebook is dying because MAU is growing faster than DAU is
basically ... dumb. Both numbers are going up. Facebook users are growing.
Feels like people just like upvoting anything anti-Facebook even if the
content doesn't really make the case well or at all.

~~~
a13n
Yep. I'm pretty curious where the overwhelmingly negative FB sentiment on HN
comes from. I've never seen so many people pride themselves in never having
used / deleting Facebook.

~~~
Skunkleton
If you understand facebook's business, you wont view it positively.

~~~
jhobag
I would assume HN users have some idea of facebooks business..

that's beside the point. Facebook and its products are growing regardless if
you like them/know about their business (as if its some sort of esoteric
practice...?), to state otherwise isnt worth discussing much less posting
about on here

~~~
Skunkleton
The question was "where [does] the overwhelmingly negative FB sentiment on HN
come from?"

What does success have to do with popular opinion or morality? Has anyone here
said facebook isn't successful?

~~~
unforeseen9991
Exactly, Casinos are successful in a business sense as well.

These companies get most of their profit from addicting people and keeping
them addicted.

They have the same moral standing as a drug dealer.

------
jeeeeb
Without more context it seems hard to make conclusions from the data
presented.

In terms of the raw figures both Daily Active Users and Monthly Active Users
are up. However Monthly Active Users has increased at a faster rate than Daily
Active Users, therefore user engagement which is defined as the ratio of daily
active users to monthly active users has fallen.

Is this because existing users have reduced engagement with the platform,
while Facebook continues to signup new users, or is it because the new users
Facebook is signing up are not as engaged in the platform, or a combination of
both?

For example maybe Facebook is 'hacking' its user growth figures by signing up
marginal users at the cost of engagement.

~~~
dmix
Does engagement include interaction with FB messenger apps? Or just the social
network part?

I could see the profile based social network part being downplayed by them in
the future as they try to become the WeChat of the west - which is where you
have to look if you want to see where FB wants to be in 10yrs.

WeChat is taking over the lives of the average Chinese person in ways FB only
dreams about [1].

One big way WeChat has grown is through groups which act as mini marketplaces
and mini newspapers. Both formed organically by anyone or any niche.

I doubt FB would care about their social network stuff declining if they can
ramp up the use of mobile payments and groups. But I also have big doubts FB
can rebuild the trust they lost with the early adopters to really pull off any
big shift in payments. The group stuff I can see (continuing) to work with the
older audience but the younger crowd is where the future is.

It’s too bad WhatsApp sold, they could be trying to do WeChat style stuff,
with more privacy than FBs business model could allow.

1\. [https://www.wsj.com/video/series/moving-upstream/chinas-
grea...](https://www.wsj.com/video/series/moving-upstream/chinas-great-leap-
to-wallet-free-living-moving-upstream/09D91AAD-5839-49C0-BFBD-E369F25C55FB)

------
jasonjei
But people are using Instagram. I don’t have numbers/data to back this, but
anecdotally I see people using Instagram for viewing content, for sharing
content, and for chatting, over their use of FB.

Even if FB is in decline, FB made a wise decision to buy IG and hedge with IG.
Something about the simple UX is allowing IG to thrive, while FB has become
more complicated over the years.

~~~
strict9
It's 100% anecdotal but the observation has a 10-year run...

I've been riding the same train line in Chicago for almost 10 years (Blue
Line) and when I started I remember cringing that so many spent their free
time scrolling facebook before/after work on the ride home.

Now it's much less social networking--but when it is, it's definitely
instagram or occasionally twitter. Can't remember the last time I saw someone
scrolling the blue app on their phone.

Guessing people still use it at home sometimes because they have to, or in the
case of boomers, they're hooked on political memes.

Losing ground so much ground on the phone is an ominous sign.

~~~
dehrmann
I'm curious: what's replacing social networking during people's commutes?

> occasionally twitter

Can't believe I'm saying this, but it's looking like Twitter might outlive
Facebook as a relevant platform.

~~~
strict9
I haven't tabulated it but if it's not those two it's usually a game or (more
likely) sms, and a lot of news sites.

As an aside, I honestly have little interest in snooping (it's boring) but on
very crowded trains you can't always avoid it.

~~~
dehrmann
About games, ZNGA's outperformed FB in the past year.

------
threeseed
That's a bizarre way to interpret the numbers.

They aren't dying. They just aren't growing at the same rate.

Which you would expect as you saturate the markets that have internet access.

~~~
c256
His premise is that social media companies either grow or they die, and Fb is
running out of growth. The follow-on to the premise is that the delay between
growth falling and revenue falling can mask the signs of impending doom, at
least in the eyes of “the market”.

I’m not trying to claim that the premise is correct, but I would say that
there is some evidence to support it.

~~~
TazeTSchnitzel
Engagement fall happens when users lose interest, revenue fall happens when
advertisers realise users have lost interest. It makes sense to me,
advertisers will lag a bit.

------
Theodores
Plenty of people try to promote brands and businesses with social media but
the word on the street is that there are too many ads on Facebook/Instagram.

It is as if they have ended up with the wrong revenue model. Imagine if
telephone calls weren't metered and you could talk all you wanted to so long
as you were willing to wait out five minutes of adverts every ten minutes.
This would be fine for cheap people willing to 'be the product' but you would
not be able to have serious phone calls.

~~~
lossolo
You don't need to imagine, this mechanism was implemented many times in
various countries.

------
IshKebab
It's pretty obvious to see why: an insane number of adverts, and too much
irrelevant content (people posting in groups, friends commenting on other
friend's posts, people tagging you in "only 1% of people can solve this"
nonsense, etc.). It's fixable, but maybe not without sacrificing advertising
revenue.

By 2025 Instagram will be the same and I'm sure Facebook plans to buy whatever
people migrate to from that.

------
kerng
This analysis is interesting, as its the first time I see actually reflected
in numbers and graphs what I observe around my friends. Hardly anyone is using
it.

I thought that most likely the continuous growth in other countries is what
makes Facebook numbers go up -- but it clearly shows that user engagement is
significantly down and FB is the weakest performer amongst FAMGA (how the
other refers to the core peer tech companies)

------
konschubert
That's why FB is so paranoid & creepy about detecting the rise rival
platforms: It has the cash to buy the next 10 Instagrams, but it needs to get
in before they become too big.

~~~
weinzierl
This will work until someone young and hungry comes around and says: _" I
don't know what I could do with the money. I'd just start another social
networking site. I kind of like the one I already have."_ [1]

[1] [https://www.inc.com/allison-fass/peter-thiel-mark-
zuckerberg...](https://www.inc.com/allison-fass/peter-thiel-mark-zuckerberg-
luck-day-facebook-turned-down-billion-dollars.html)

~~~
odyssey7
Evan Spiegel has been turning down Facebook for a few years now. Snapchat's
strategies are kind of different from Instagram's and Facebook's, and I'm
curious to see how things work out.

[https://www.bizjournals.com/losangeles/news/2018/12/24/snap-...](https://www.bizjournals.com/losangeles/news/2018/12/24/snap-
reportedly-turned-down-facebook-a-second-time.html)

~~~
busymom0
Anecdotal but everyone I know who used to be on Snapchat has now moved to
Instagram. This is mostly 18-26 age group I know and a lot of them moved to IG
when Snapchat did their Ui change last year I believe.

------
Mediterraneo10
The death of Facebook might represent a considerable loss of human history. So
much online interaction, so many communities have moved to Facebook, but
unlike the various forum websites that people used before, Facebook groups do
not get picked up by the Wayback Machine and conveniently stored for scholars
or for just anyone who wants to delve into the past. I hope that if Facebook
goes – and I would not mourn all the downsides of social media – appropriate
archiving of public posts is done.

~~~
pier25
Considerable loss in volume, but also in value?

Unlike Reddit or HN, Facebook is the worse social network for having any kind
of meaningful conversation. The UI is terrible once you get past 1st level
replies.

~~~
ImaCake
But it does have a wealth of useful data! It has the social graphs of a lot of
people, it has a somewhat meaningful list of things they are interested in,
and it has a bunch of photos of them. Those things tell stories all of their
own, regardless of how shit facebook is.

~~~
pier25
I'm not sure if you are being sarcastic or not.

~~~
ImaCake
I'm not. Facebook has a massive store of data that will likely be very
interesting to future historians. Just because it is biased and unreliable
doesn't mean it isn't useful.

~~~
brighter2morrow
I'm concerned about future powers using data to target me and my family for
"re-education camps"

------
bardworx
Are FB/Twitter/etc. user engagement numbers influenced by removing fake
accounts, battling misinformation, and banning some groups from using their
platform?

Or are the number of stories/accounts removed so small that it doesn't move
the needle either way?

------
fock
> Believer that Crypto is the biggest thing to happen in the history of
> mankind.

Well, there's apparently a reason why this guy is your average Silicon-Valley
millionaire and Mark Zuckerberg is a billionaire.

------
cpollard0
What is the basis for creating a peer group (dubbed FAMGA) or unrelated
businesses? Comparing Facebook’s growth (a social media platform) to Amazons
(retail and cloud computing) seems pointless.

------
ctdonath
I've followed social media since BBS days. Every site has a finite lifespan.
Every unstoppable juggernaut disappeared seemingly overnight. Even as user
counts grew, so did discontent and a desire for a new paradigm & host.

Facebook is no different. It's showing the same patterns in the same
timeframe. The format is obsolete, the banter toxified, a critical mass
looking for a way out but for a new destination.

------
aladine
Facebook is not dying soon, but I wish it would happen. I don't delete my FB
yet, just to keep old contacts of friends, but I deactivate frequently. The
controversy of exposing user data makes it become far away from the original
Facebook few years ago.

------
6gvONxR4sf7o
Is there a public metric of active users defined as people who actually post
things, rather than idly scrolling and hitting the like or share button here
or there?

------
warabe
I think HN folks, incl me, hope so, but numbers don’t lie.

I wish it’s really dying, but sales and earnings keep rising... \\_(シ)_/

------
HelloNurse
A DAU/MAU ratio oscillating within a <1% band for over two years implies
stability, not "dying". Such an extraordinary stability that unreliable data
is a more plausible explanation than the absence of any trend.

------
unethical_ban
Lou Kerner believes that "that Crypto is the biggest thing to happen in the
history of mankind". He has a community-first crypto VC. He has written
multiple articles on how bad Libra is.

I question the bias of the article.

------
tanilama
Politics aside, I don't really FB is an effective medium to communicate
anymore. I posted something on Facebook recently after a long while, there is
like 1-2 follow-ups I got, it feels obsolete to me.

------
techrich
I suspect its not, but it would be nice if it did go.

------
iamleppert
Forgive me, but the numbers presented in that graph look to be growing, it’s
their relationship that’s changing. People are still using Facebook, they are
just using it on a more reasonable frequency that is common to all things,
after a certain infatuation period is over. It appears to me they are just
reaching a steady state. If you look at any relationship between two events
sampled at different intervals you tend to see this pattern.

------
Jemm
If only Medium.com would also go away.

------
Zenst
This whole XXXX is dying, we have seen this before and how many of them actual
die? None I'm aware.

But it has become the defacto headline grabbing go to for so many and always
operate on the premise that the company will stay stagnate in innovation and
not evolve in any way.

------
buboard
Long live Instagram

Facebook didnt monetize itself until they took captive for ransom the audience
that brands had built with Facebook Pages . They 'll pull the same with
instagram

------
Meph504
I wish exaggerated titles were dying too.

------
fullshark
His key metric moved from 66.3% to 65.7%, this is his evidence of death.

------
mnm1
Sounds like good news for everyone, including casual FB investors like myself.
The quicker this platform dies, the better. It is a cancer on our society, our
government, and all its people including those who don't use it. And not just
our society but every society in the world, some more than others. Investors
losing a little money is a miniscule price to pay. I just hope the author is
correct. Maybe Facebook users have tired of the privacy invasion, rigged
elections, genocides, and social malaise this platform brings upon the world
(to name just a few negative consequences).

~~~
mruts
Why would you want a current investment of yours to go down? It doesn't make
much sense..

~~~
billfor
To short it :-)

~~~
mruts
It's called "short selling" because you sold it, and no longer own it. Also,
in economics and finance, the term "investment" almost always refers to an
asset in which you have long exposure.

------
mtgx
Remember all the skepticism around here that scandals like Cambridge Analytica
would affect Facebook and people using Facebook's positive press releases and
financial results from like a month later as "proof" that the scandal didn't
affect the company?

I said then it doesn't work like that. Give it a year.

~~~
threeseed
Facebook is still growing though and the slow down in growth predates any of
the scandals.

So based on the evidence we have the theory that people are impacted by
privacy concerns isn't founded. Also you are piggy backing on the slow down
when the more logical reasons are (a) market saturation, (b) competitors like
Instagram and (c) the growth impacts from younger users as Facebook's average
age increases.

~~~
rightbyte
Without further insight into the numbers it's impossible to evaluate if FB is
growing or not. I mean, imagine John Doe is logged into FB with some
persistent cookie. Does every page view that contains an FB-thumbs up frame
count as an interaction? FB could have hundreds of million thrice a year users
that they count as active due to this.

[https://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-grew-monthly-
averag...](https://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-grew-monthly-average-
users-in-q1-2019-4?r=US&IR=T)

"The world's largest social network is now even larger: Facebook reported 2.4
billion monthly active users (MAU) in Q1, per its earnings released
Wednesday."

So every third european is active on facebook.com each day. The number doesn't
make sense at all. I guess it's hugely exaggerated.

