
Brazil Oil Finds May End Reliance on Middle East - gibsonf1
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aBUoYKhu7PWk
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mlinsey
Hopefully this will be good news for Brazil in the long run - but I worry that
becoming a major oil exporter will be much worse for the Brazilian people. The
ideal workforce to make a country rich from technology and innovation is a
well-educated, relatively free one that can experiment and be creative. The
ideal workforce to make a country rich from a natural resource is a poorly
educated one that will fall in line with the regime that controls the
resource. Monopolies and tyrannies are bad for hacking but great for pumping
oil.

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arvid
Don't get your hopes up too much. Petrobras is a state run monopoly and has
had a number of recent corruption scandals. Even though the price of oil has
risen dramatically and Brazil continues to find more reserves, production has
actually dropped the last few years. This is due to the fact that a platform
sank a few years ago and 5 year's ago the government decided that all new
platforms should be Brazilian-built. Of course they are also behind schedule
with cost over-runs. These new fields are very deep and will require new
technology and significant investments. Given the government's tendency to
maintain political and economic control of natural resources, it is unlikely
that much external investment or technology will participate in the
exploration. The benefits from these new fields is many years away probably
much later than 2012.

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jrockway
I think this will be a good thing. The Middle East thinks they control the
world, which is a bad attitude (although true right now). For some reason, I
would love to see Dubai fall into ruins. It just doesn't sit well with me that
they are such an authoritarian regime that made money not by innovating but by
pumping liquid out of the ground. Such a flashy city... but no culture, just
money made from oil.

They're entitled to what they have, but I am entitled to not feel good about
it :)

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bilbo0s
Robbing Peter to pay Paul.

From reliance on undemocratic regimes who maintain a corrupt power structure
at the barrel of a rifle, to reliance on a democratic regime that maintains a
corrupt power structure and a societal stratification that can only be
described as economic apartheid. What could go wrong?

You'll forgive me if I believe we should keep looking for other options.

How about 'self reliance'?

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aflag
Please elaborate. I didn't quite understand what you said. What's societal
stratification and why can it only be described as social apartheid? What are
you talking about?

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bilbo0s
By way of clarification I guess I should explain that in Brazil there is a
sizable segment of the population that lives in abject poverty. Frequently
inhabiting tenement areas that are really no more than shanty towns, called
'Favelas'. High crime, few educational or employment opportunities, disease
and hunger are all found throughout Brazil in these areas. There is also a
racial component as well, as Blacks or darker skinned people are
disproportionately represented in the impoverished class.

As these types of problems can lead to social unrest, which inevitably impacts
politics and trade, I was intimating that the sort of reliance on Brazilian
Oil that the author of the article implicitly postulates is unwise.

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aflag
So it's unwise because Brazil has social problems? So reliance would be bad
because it would be supporting those social problems? Is that your point?

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bilbo0s
No. My point is that the chances of trade disruptions due to social unrest in
Brazil is uncomfortably high. Further, the chances of trade disruptions due to
... 'demagogue comes along and tells the impoverished masses that they are
being ripped off' ... is a virtual certainty in the presence of oil wealth.

It is not the social problems that I take issue with, the Brazilians can run
their nation as they see fit. It is the fact that these social problems have a
high probability of developing into something that would adversely effect us
if we were dependent on Brazil that I object to.

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fiaz
I like the hopeful note that this information rings. The real proof of this,
however, will be reflected in the price of oil in the markets.

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dnaquin
This is years away still. And pales in comparison to the possibilities in
Canada.

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tom_rath
The Alberta tar sands will not be profitable if this new deposit can be
accessed at a cost comparable to other deep sea drilling.

If that's the case.... -pop- goes the Alberta bubble, again.

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dnaquin
Unless we develop new technology.

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tom_rath
...which there will be no reason to develop if an abundance of cheap oil is
available.

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davidw
!HN

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jgrahamc
SM

