
Tesla to achieve leading $100/kWh battery cell cost this year, says investor - prostoalex
https://electrek.co/2018/09/11/tesla-100-kwh-battery-cost-investor-gigafactory-1-tour/
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sschueller
Just FYI, electrek is consider very bullish on Tesla. A lot of their articles
lean. Just like a lot of the short sellers sites lean the other way.

~~~
compcoffee
> _Just FYI, electrek is consider very bullish on Tesla._

It's worse than that. The "analyst" is from Worm Capital. Every heard of them?
Probably not. But their fund is 60% Tesla.

Why is it that "shorts" are criticized for talking their book and spreading
FUD, but the "longs" are not criticized for all the stock pumping? Why are
Worm Capital and the YouTube guy getting factory tours?

~~~
specialp
There's always this feeling that shorts are predatory and making money off
other people's demise. Kinda like betting the "Don't Pass" line in craps.
Stocks go up, everyone wins right? Oh no not those pesky shorts trying to
drive the price down. But the misinformation and hype from the long side is
actually worse in general, and shorts aren't to blame for misplaced greed and
hype.

If I am long on a stock I applaud the shorts. After all, if they are wrong,
they have to buy back and drive up my price more. Also when a company is over-
hyped or worse and outright fraud, short sellers can bring attention to this
and slow the impending bust that is going to happen. I personally had shorted
a lot of stocks in the past and they are almost all bankrupt now taking with
them the sheer speculators that over extended themselves.

~~~
taneq
> If I am long on a stock I applaud the shorts. After all, if they are wrong,
> they have to buy back and drive up my price more.

You're right but I think a lot of hobby investors don't really _get_ 'long on
stock' \- once they buy stock in a company they feel personally invested and
want the price to go up, and damn the naysayers.

The only time this might not apply is when a company is taking a huge risk
(like Tesla with the push for the Model 3) and there's a real chance that
grassroots FUD could break a company.

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rjplatte
Thus reinforcing Tesla's dominance. Until other manufacturers can match
Tesla's price/range combination, Tesla will continue to dominate the market.

~~~
skykooler
I wonder whether Tesla will go into the market supplying batteries to other
manufacturers? Such a price point would give them a huge advantage in that
market.

~~~
WhompingWindows
Given their plans to expand their auto manufacturing with new factories in the
EU and China, and their growing ambitions to create stationary energy storage
for renewable generation, I'd say they won't be selling their automotive
batteries anytime soon. I think it more likely they sell their electric power
train, which they have done in the past.

~~~
GW150914
Doesn’t Panasonic make their batteries? To what extent can Panasonic decide to
sell the batteries without dealing with Tesla?

~~~
Retric
> Panasonic make their batteries

No, they are a partner and have put up a significant fraction of the capital
for the plant though.

~~~
GW150914
Right, but as I was under the impression that the actual 18650 Cells are made
by Panasonic in Japan.

~~~
stetrain
My understanding is that the article is referring to the new 2170 Cells (used
in Model 3) which are produced at the Panasonic/Tesla partner Gigafactory in
Nevada.

Even for the cells produced in Japan if they are using IP owned by Tesla in
their construction or chemistry they could still have a say in who Panasonic
sells them to.

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threeseed
I would take this with an even bigger grain of salt since Worm Capital who did
the visit has Tesla as their biggest stock holding. And surely your judgement
must be clouded if you think Tesla has the best in class self driving
technology.

~~~
shiftpgdn
Tesla DOES have the best in class self driving available today. Waymo is ahead
but I can't stroll on down to the dealer and buy their tech yet.

~~~
threeseed
Read the article.

It is talking about what Tesla is creating not what they have today.

~~~
codetrotter
Speaking of which.

> We believe Tesla is creating a best-in-class self-driving technology.

What are they basing that belief on?

> According to Tesla, the company believes it can gather 1 billion miles of
> data per year from current drivers.

Good training data is necessary but having a lot of training data alone is not
a guarantee for success.

I believe a lot in Elon Musk and Tesla but I would like to hear a good
argument from Worm Capital about why they think Tesla will have the _best-in-
class_ self-driving technology.

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hinkley
In previous reports of delays in Tesla production I had assumed that the
delays were in vehicle assembly. This article asserts that battery production
was a major bottleneck, and that the provider of their equipment is getting
them a version that’s three times as fast and cheaper to run. I wonder how
much of this price point is just cheaper faster equipment?

~~~
WhompingWindows
While shortage of Panasonic cells and larger batteries containing multiple
cells has been a concern at times, you can't just look at the battery
production itself. I believe many of the delays in production have been due to
battery _pack_ production, whereby cells are organized into complex
hierarchies in specific orientations (+/-, current flow controlled) to achieve
greater heat dissipation and improve energy density. This workflow step is not
on Panasonic but on Tesla, and I believe they struggled with model 3 pack
shortages for months, though general vehicle assembly may have also been a
bottleneck.

~~~
hinkley
They’re a little vague, but it stands to reason they were referring to the
pack assembly machinery.

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SilasX
"Investor is bullish about company he invested in" is not news, let alone
"hacker news".

~~~
rcMgD2BwE72F
With that line of reasoning, no one should talk about the cost of any
component in a Tesla because it's either made by Tesla or by an entity that is
paid by Tesla.

In other words, few things can be said if only independent people can talk
about them.

~~~
SilasX
That doesn't follow from this line of reasoning.

I objected to an article premised on a self-interested statement from someone
who's inherently optimistic about Tesla. Neutral, grounded reporting about any
profit-making company is always welcome.

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syntaxing
Aside from their cars, I really wished they released a low cost 1-2kWh
powerwall. I would love to have a power bank without buying all the bulky AGM
batteries and capable to charge with <400W of solar panel capacity for
emergency purposes.

~~~
dev_dull
Do you want it hooked up to the grid? Otherwise that’s fun DIY project with
18650 batteries.

~~~
ant6n
Sounds like an incredible time sink and a fire hazard, for not that much of a
benefit. Sometimes it's just easier to go into a store and buy something.

~~~
syntaxing
Yeah, that's the downside of DIY. 2kWh of power is alot of energy to release.

~~~
ant6n
I hear the total chemical energy hound in batteries is much higher than the
usable capacity.

~~~
dev_dull
I wouldn’t ever want to be on the receiving end of a lithium fire. I’m pretty
sure it would melt the side of my house off.

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jacquesm
I know only very few investors that would be tech savvy enough to make that
call, and I don't know any investors that will publicly talk down a company
they have invested in. This is pretty much content free.

------
blakesterz
"That’s if “commodity prices remain stable”, but otherwise they came out of
the tour confident that they will achieve the important price target by the
end of the year."

What are these things made from and where does that stuff come from? Was any
of that part of the big tariffs that were recently announced?

~~~
hwillis
For Tesla the cases are steel, but that's a tiny cost. The cost drivers are
nickel, cobalt, and graphite in that order. Nickel stabilized lately but is
still subject to fluctuations in demand- entirely at the whim of stainless
steel, the main consumer. Cobalt is anyone's guess, but is usually fairly
stable and batteries still aren't the largest consumer (IIRC, but it's very
close). Graphite is pretty stable because >40% is synthetic. It's a somewhat
nasty process that requires a lot of acids and tons of energy, but it's
nothing special.

Nickel is a worry. Cobalt is unlikely to be a concern for tariffs since it
would probably help China to tax it. Graphite might be under threat too since
it's made in both the US and China.

Other materials like lithium or organics are unlikely to be taxed or are
manufactured at large scale.

------
olivermarks
How recyclable are these batteries? I haven't seen much info on how they will
be handled at end of life.

~~~
hwillis
Extremely. Tesla batteries require some disassembly effort, and the model 3
makes recycling trickier because the cells are potted in plastic, but the
actual cells of any li ion battery are eminently recyclable.

The process involves shredding or incinerating the cells first, then dumping
the results in an electrolysis tank. Because the cells are essentially just
chunks of plastic, aluminum, copper (and steel for teslas) and various
powders, the large chunks can be easily sorted from the anode and cathode
material by washing. The powder goes into an electrolysis bath, which extracts
the high-value metals (cobalt and nickel) to a pretty good purity. The carbon
leftovers (anode, electrolyte, and plastics) collect at the bottom with the
lithium and leftover cathode material (aluminum, silicon, other things
depending on the chemistry). The leftovers are mostly sold as clinker.

You could extract the lithium from that, but at present it's not done. For one
thing, batteries actually have a lower concentration of lithium than lithium
brine and even some lithium-bearing ores. Recycling is also just so low-volume
that if you did extract the lithium you wouldn't really have enough to be
worth selling.

Regardless, the clinker material is ecologically inert. Nickel and cobalt are
the only hazardous materials in the battery. Everything else is extremely
common in nature- lithium is present in every water supply since it's a
natural component of salt. Carbon is obviously everywhere, even in elemental
forms. Any rock you pick up almost anywhere in the world is overwhelmingly
likely to be primarily made of silicon. Aluminum is similar. NB that all the
clinker materials will be in oxide or hydroxide forms.

~~~
mrfusion
Another option is to simply repurpose old batteries to stationary storage
applications. Even if it’s only holding a five percent charge, who cares if
they’re just sitting in a building somewhere.

~~~
snowwindwaves
Because they take up space and space in a building isn't free. Nor is the
equipment to use the batteries as storage

~~~
JoeAltmaier
Nor is the electricity lost due to heating the inefficient battery. Old
batteries also get hot, as their cathode(?) breaks down

~~~
hwillis
This is incorrect; the cathode only breaks down during a fire or something
catostrauphic. Li ion develops higher internal resistance due to SEI buildup,
which is less plastic and causes voltage sag as ions migrate. However this
effect is cubic (iirc, cant look it up on the throne) so at low draw its
heavily reduced.

What is low draw depends very heavily on the chemistry, but at <1 C most
batteries are only a couple percent less efficient. Every other energy storage
method including hydraulic is far less efficient.

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mpg33
That's still what $7500-$10K per Telsa though isn't it?

~~~
avelis
Yes more or less. It’s critical because now it is on cost parity with an ICE
drivetrain. Once it goes below it across the industry ICE drivetrains for
consumer cars is toast.

~~~
josefresco
Why is a battery alone being compared with an "ICE drivetrain" which consists
of many, individual components? Also, drivetrain and powertrain are two
distinct things, I believe you meant powertrain.

~~~
hwillis
Powertrain is technically correct, since only the flywheel/torque
converter/transmission/driveshaft (and occasionally the differential) are
really replaced from a drivetrain.

The battery has represented ~80% of an electric powertrain's cost, so it's a
reasonable proxy for replacing most of the powertrain. Even parts that aren't
fully replaced, like the heater core, A/C and radiator are made significantly
cheaper. It's very much an estimate, but it isn't inaccurate.

Recently it's becoming less representative. Drive stages (electronics) are
getting more exotic and expensive as manufacturers recognize the value in
them, and motors are probably going to continue using limited amounts of
neodymium magnets. And of course, batteries have become far cheaper.
Personally I can't wait- I want more focus to be on the motors and drivers,
which are way more accessible from an aftermarket perspective. It takes tens
or hundreds of millions to get into battery manufacturing, but only a few
hundred thousand to get into making world-class motors or electronics. Crate
engines for EVs are just waiting on the demand (and a friendly nod from
manufacturers).

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cpncrunch
Article is difficult to read. "now it’s about Worm Capital’s turn, but this
time it was a tour of Gigafactory 1."

Here is a better article:

[https://www.utilitydive.com/news/musk-says-tesla-can-get-
li-...](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/musk-says-tesla-can-get-li-ion-cell-
prices-below-100kwh-this-year/525162/)

It appears it's old news, from June (and the above is from the horse's mouth,
not an investor).

