

China Passes Japan as Second-Largest Economy - danhak
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/16/business/global/16yuan.html?_r=1&hp

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IdeaHamster
Read to the second page, especially this:

 _Global companies like Caterpillar, General Electric, General Motors and
Siemens — as well as scores of others — are making a more aggressive push into
China, in some cases moving research and development centers here._

I am, personally, familiar with the movement of R&D to China. This, alone,
makes me believe that this is not a flash-in-the-pan, but a genuine long term
trend.

Also, as I recall the original estimate for when China would become #1 auto
consumer was 2012. They beat that by 3 years. So, I would hazard a guess that
it won't take them all the way to 2030 to become economy #1. What will be
really interesting about that, though, is that due to population size alone,
they will still have a far, far smaller per-capita income than the U.S.

~~~
nostromo
It's hard for me to envision it being too much earlier than that -- take a
look at this chart: [http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-
wdi&ctype=l&s...](http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-
wdi&ctype=l&strail=false&nselm=h&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=country:CHN:USA&tstart=-315619200000&tunit=Y&tlen=48&hl=en&dl=en)
\-- it's not like the US isn't a moving target.

Especially if the US and EU get serious about alleged currency manipulation --
it's funny to see a graph of US to Yuan stay virtually flat for many years
dispite their economic growth:
[http://www.google.com/finance/chart?q=CURRENCY:CNYUSD&tk...](http://www.google.com/finance/chart?q=CURRENCY:CNYUSD&tkr=1&p=5Y)
\-- compare that to organic exchange rates:
[http://www.google.com/finance/chart?q=CURRENCY:CNYEUR&tk...](http://www.google.com/finance/chart?q=CURRENCY:CNYEUR&tkr=1&p=5Y)
and
[http://www.google.com/finance/chart?q=CURRENCY:GBPUSD&tk...](http://www.google.com/finance/chart?q=CURRENCY:GBPUSD&tkr=1&p=5Y)

Btw, it seems China is the world's largest auto market by units sold, not by
dollars/yuan sold -- which is an odd way to think about it. Cars are
significantly cheaper in China.

~~~
eru
"GDP in current U.S. dollars. Not adjusted for inflation."

It would be nice to see the inflation adjusted figures.

------
amichail
Is there any danger to English as a universal language for the internet,
business, education, and research?

Will we need to learn Chinese in a decade or two?

~~~
boyter
No. The Chinese realize their language is a pain in the butt to learn and that
the writing system is terrible in comparison to any alphabet system.
Consequently they are all learning English so they can work with foreign
companies.

You need to keep in mind, China has few natural resources so they are reliant
on everyone else. Because of this they will be forced to learn English.
Chinese will still be the main language of China, but it won't become the
world language the way English has.

~~~
yuan
_No. The Chinese realize their language is a pain in the butt to learn and
that the writing system is terrible in comparison to any alphabet system._

As a native speaker of Mandarin Chinese, I think you are full of shit. No
native Chinese speaker I know thinks English is easier to learn than Chinese.
And I prefer the Chinese writing system myself if I have a choice.

It's true that many people are learning English, because today Chinese are
producing and selling. When the day comes when Chinese become buyers and the
rest of the world are trying to get sales from Chinese, they will start
learning Chinese.

~~~
gizmomagico
You lack some perspective and tact, you silly goose. It's not very surprising
you and your friends think your native language is easier and that you prefer
your own writing system. Way to navel-gaze, hello?

As someone whose native language is neither, having studied both, I'd say
English is much easier.

The tones in Chinese really fuck with someone whose native language isn't
tonal (and most aren't), and wouldn't you rather become literate by learning
26-30 symbols than by learning thousands of symbols? Makes sense, doesn't it?

Words in Chinese don't get conjugated much (if at all), but you've got a
relatively strict word order, whereas in English, you've got particles and a
more relaxed word order.

Not having tones and no _huge_ obstacle to becoming literate makes English a
hell of a lot easier to learn.

~~~
eru
Could you please be more polite? Thanks!

(And your native language was probably closer related to English than to
Chinese. Was it?)

~~~
gizmomagico
What exactly did I say that warranted a reprimanding like that?

~~~
eru
> You lack some perspective and tact, you silly goose. It's not very
> surprising you and your friends think your native language is easier and
> that you prefer your own writing system. Way to navel-gaze, hello?

I agree that yuan's "I think you are full of shit." is even worse (although he
addresses another `you'), and I even agree with your sentiment (if not your
wording).

On the other hand, boyter said, the "Chinese realize" their language is hard
to learn. And yuan disagreed. Navel-gazing was exactly what was called for.

So I agree with yuan and you. But your message was slightly out of context and
does not address yuan's message.

------
wslh
It's interesting to follow China ranking not just in the GDP but in PPP (GDP
per capita) and other indicators.There are 1.3billion people there and they
are currently cheap. In the PPP they have a lot of room to grow.

Beyond typical economic indicators it's interesting to analyze what are their
current asymptotes limiting China (economically) in the future: creativity?
democracy? social unrest? bureaucracy?

------
nopassrecover
I find it pretty amazing that Japan was second for so long given the country's
relatively small size and its 19th and 20th century history.

~~~
fgf
I don't.. It's population is as big as russias and bigger than any other
nation with a comparable average national IQ (besides the US) and some kind of
capitalism. I can't think of a single example of this combination not leading
to convergence with the highest gdp capita countries.

~~~
nopassrecover
I guess this is the key. Still the nation went from a level of pre-
industrialization and through the devastation of the second world war to be
the second largest economy in te world. If I understand correctly the economy
has been relatively stagnant for sometime too and has still held its position.

~~~
eru
The numbers for Germany aren't too dissimilar.

------
younata
I love how it's talking about china being #2, with a $1.33 trillion gdp, then
it drops US's $14 trillion gdp, as if it's an easy to achieve milestone.

I have no fears that china will outpace the US, for a number of reasons.

~~~
borisk
$1.33 trillion is China quarter GDP, $14 trillion is US yearly GDP. And the
second includes many trillions of financial "product".

[http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-
wdi&met=ny_gdp_mk...](http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-
wdi&met=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:CHN&dl=en&hl=en&q=china+gdp#met=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:CHN:JPN:USA)

~~~
sqrt17
The EU has $16 trillion yearly GDP. Wouldn't that make China #3? (The Eurozone
alone has ~$10 trillion yearly).

Don't come with the argument of, "oh they have all different governments and
all different languages". State governments in the US hold a great fraction of
legislative power (to the point where you're not a US lawyer, but a WA, TX or
CL lawyer), and provinces in China have local languages (yes, languages -
there's a point to using an ideographic writing system because you can use it
for languages other than Mandarin) and not everyone speaks Mandarin.

~~~
borisk
EU, as of now, is far less unified than US. 11 of the 27 members have their
own currencies. Some of the members are not part of the borderless Schengen
Agreement. Sending stuff and money across EU is subject to international taxes
and fees. People think of themself as German, French ... and not European.

[http://eu.techcrunch.com/2009/10/23/when-it-comes-to-e-
comme...](http://eu.techcrunch.com/2009/10/23/when-it-comes-to-e-commerce-
there-is-no-europe/)

~~~
rue
> _Sending stuff and money across EU is subject to international taxes and
> fees._

Generally no, from a consumer perspective. Perhaps I misunderstand what you
refer to? There are some oddities, such as Switzerland not being in the EU
which causes

The larger point is certainly correct: I would not consider EU a single
economic entity at this point. It is progressing toward it, though, things
such as the payment service/bank transfer unification are inevitably knitting
the area together. As such it may be useful to include the union
prospectively, if you will.

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known
And the weird thing is China ranks 89 and Pakistan 85 in
<http://www.doingbusiness.org/economyrankings/>

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keyle
Well, well, this reminded me why they speak Chinese in Firefly.

~~~
WildUtah
But it doesn't explain why there are no actual Chinese people on Firefly.

This does explain it: <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNmzegQUtFA>

~~~
vorg
But bet it doesn't explain why you can't access that website and video from
within China's borders!!!

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artpop
This and discovering water on Mars are my two all time déjà vu news articles.

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known
I think _management team_ and _shareholders_ should also go and _live in
China_ if they're sending jobs there.

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uuoc
Please do not post links to the NYTimes paywall.

