
PG&E could shut off power across Bay Area on Wednesday and Thursday - bookofjoe
https://www.berkeleyside.com/2019/10/07/pge-could-shut-off-power-across-bay-area-wednesday-and-thursday
======
fortran77
I think they don't want to be liable for fires anymore. And they're not
"liable" for cutting power to prevent fires. Problem solved, at least from a
legal standpoint.

~~~
akira2501
> And they're not "liable" for cutting power to prevent fires.

State granted monopolies must serve the public good. If, as a broadcaster, I
just can't manage to keep our transmitter on -- we're going to lose our
license to someone who can.

Either PG&E needs to explain why they can't do appropriate line maintenance or
needs to have their lines put up for bidding.

~~~
kelnos
I'm actually a little sympathetic at this point. How can you be expected to
spend money fixing problems when the fines and lawsuits in the aftermath of
the last crisis have bankrupted you?

Obviously ideally they never should have let maintenance get so neglected in
the first place, but here we are... how do we get out of this hole?

I'm of the opinion that the state should assume ownership of PG&E in exchange
for bailout money, just as was done with some banks a decade ago. Use public
funds to stop the bleeding and make headway on fixing the problems that caused
all this in the first place. If that means drastic leadership changes, so be
it. Once PG&E is back on its feet and has proven it can be responsible, the
shares owned by the state can be sold back to the public, presumably for a
tidy profit.

We should also examine the regulatory environment around all this to figure
out what contributed to the current state of affairs, and try to set up PG&E's
next incarnation for success.

Another interesting option could be to strip PG&E for parts, and let smaller
municipalities (city, county, region) buy up the infrastructure, take care of
repairs (likely with funding support from the state), and run in perpetuity in
a more distributed manner. I imagine there are certain efficiencies in having
ownership more centralized in theory, but clearly that hasn't worked in CA for
decades.

~~~
inferiorhuman
_I 'm actually a little sympathetic at this point. How can you be expected to
spend money fixing problems when the fines and lawsuits in the aftermath of
the last crisis have bankrupted you? _

How? Pretty easily I suppose, especially if you're blowing your safety budget
on executive bonuses.

[https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/PG-E-diverted-
safety-...](https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/PG-E-diverted-safety-money-
for-profit-bonuses-2500175.php)

------
greesil
Map of affected areas:

[https://www.pge.com/en_US/safety/emergency-
preparedness/natu...](https://www.pge.com/en_US/safety/emergency-
preparedness/natural-disaster/wildfires/psps-service-impact-map.page)

Most reasonably dense areas are not affected, for some values of reasonable.
If you live anywhere near a eucalyptus-fueled tinderbox, probably your power
will be cut.

------
rachelbythebay
Welcome to the new dark ages, courtesy of our PG&E overlords.

I noticed that in the list of counties, SF isn't there. That's fascinating. Is
that because they're SFPUC? But doesn't SFPUC get power by way of PG&E
transmission lines? Do they have their own generation and/or transmission
capacity to survive?

Also, what about Santa Clara (the city, not the county)? They have their own
electric utility too. Do THEY have enough capacity to do their own thing?

It's gonna be stuff like this that'll kickstart the next recession. Just break
the back of the valley's economy and the rest will take care of itself.

~~~
inferiorhuman
_I noticed that in the list of counties, SF isn 't there. That's fascinating.
Is that because they're SFPUC? _

Most likely San Francisco doesn't have the sorts of transmission lines PG&E is
worried about. A fair chunk of the power lines in SF are underground, and
there aren't that many places in SF with tons of fuel where you're going to
see hot, dry, windy weather like you would in rural Napa or Contra Costa.

~~~
marnett
The electricity still has to be generated somewhere. That somewhere is usually
quite far away (nuclear, hydroelectric, wind, coal/oil/natural gas powered
facility). The generated energy now needs to be transmitted (via transmission
lines across the country side) and distributed (via substations)[0].

GP's main remark was how are these major metropolitan areas generating the
electricity they are distributing? Is generation near the city, or is PG&E
shying away from turning off power for thousands of business and millions of
users for political reasons.

[0] A great video about electricity generation, transmission, and distribution
(and subsequent in-depth videos of each step) can be found here:
[https://youtu.be/v1BMWczn7JM](https://youtu.be/v1BMWczn7JM)

~~~
inferiorhuman
_GP 's main remark was how are these major metropolitan areas generating the
electricity they are distributing? _

Fossil fuels. There's a plant in Antioch and there was, up until about a
decade ago, a plant in BVHP.

 _Is generation near the city, or is PG &E shying away from turning off power
for thousands of business and millions of users for political reasons. _

Oh give me a break. No, San Francisco is not being spared because it has
political clout. San Francisco doesn't have the same combination of
environment and poorly maintained above ground high energy transmission lines
that PG&E is worried about.

------
idunno246
They’ve been sending notices for months they may be shutting off power. The
fear they seem to be trying to generate, it almost seems like they’re gonna
try to ransom power, raising rates or get bailed out.

~~~
CaliforniaKarl
Last year when they shut off power (north of the Bay) they were criticized for
not giving enough warning.

I’m not saying that they shouldn’t be in this situation, but given that we
are, I’d prefer the warning.

------
dickeytk
I really wonder what the increased risk is of people using gas generators
instead. I suppose from PG&E's perspective this isn't their liability but it
still concerns me.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Expect to see a spike in Powerwall sales (battery storage in general really).
You even get the 30% federal tax credit if included with your rooftop solar
system.

 _If_ you have enough roof, and _if_ your consumption profile is appropriate,
you can run without utility power indefinitely.

Tesla already kicked off storm watch mode for folks with Powerwalls in the
areas affected to precharge them to 100% prior to the scheduled outages.

~~~
PeterStuer
100% off-grid is economically not the most cost effective as you have to
oversize capacity for peak too much. Current consensus is that 70% is the
sweet-spot. Off grid _will_ be taxed when the uptake becomes less niche. The
benefits in terms of (partial) autonomy will remain.

Since my previous comment where I said there will be clawbacks for lost
revenue by the grid operators was downvoted, let me quote from relevant
studies [1]:

"It should be noted that, in a scenario in which {such systems} undergo a
significant uptake, this mechanism is unsustainable since it generates revenue
shortfalls for government, municipalities and system operators. These losses
of revenues need to be somehow compensated, either by increasing the network
tariffs or by changing the tariff structure, e.g. switching from a volume
(i.e. per kWh) remuneration to a fixed or to a capacity remuneration for the
grid connection. Interestingly, this modification of the tariff structure is
already ongoing in various EU countries"

[1] [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333420646_Techno-
ec...](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333420646_Techno-
economic_Analysis_of_Residential_PV-battery_Self-consumption)

~~~
toomuchtodo
As utility rates increase to offset grid defections as storage costs come
down, a death spiral occurs (already occurring in Germany as you mention) [1].
I think it'll be politically untenable to attempt to rake people over the
coals financially, but TBD at this time.

It's not necessary to oversize your system for peak load either; you can opt
to instead shed large loads (AC), thereby reducing your capital costs for
average system loads (lighting, refrigerator, etc).

[1] [https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/this-is-what-
th...](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/this-is-what-the-utility-
death-spiral-looks-like)

~~~
PeterStuer
AC is pretty rare in Europe

~~~
toomuchtodo
I agree, but I included it for the sake of argument. Any self supporting power
system without AC is much easier to accomplish.

~~~
PeterStuer
Obviously if your energy needs are reduced and your potential energy
production remains equal, then your personal energy autonomy becomes easier.

That does not mean there is no difference in where that budget reduction comes
from. AC is typically active when it is hot, usually when there is lots of PV
potential. You are using more energy when your own energy production is
higher.

Suppose you do not have AC but instead electric heaters, then it is reversed.
You are requiring more energy when your own production is lower.

So even if your total energy budget would be the same, the former scenario
would involve less strain than the latter on energy autonomy because of how
consumption would correlate in time with production or not.

From the grid's macro perspective, in an environment without much AC (or other
appliances following the same consumption pattern), it has to potentially
absorb (or refuse) much more energy delivered to it when demand is lower,
while being able to still satisfy demand when it peaks and supply potential is
reduced.

At that grid level scope, widespread AC usage, even though in aggregate using
far more energy and thus net negative, might be easier to smooth out demand
wise and thus easier to satisfy.

------
StephenAmar
This is insane. Those power lines should've been put underground years ago.

California seems to always build infrastructure on the cheap.

------
tathougies
Hopefully all the tech talent in the bay area will start working on local
energy generation to send pg and e into proper bankruptcy

~~~
uniformlyrandom
pg&e owns the grid. A lot of bay area residents generate their own power, but
we all rely on pg&e for interconnect.

And without grid, solar panels shut themselves off.

~~~
tathougies
> And without grid, solar panels shut themselves off.

By legislation, not by technical necessity.

> A lot of bay area residents generate their own power, but we all rely on
> pg&e for interconnect.

I am aware. This is a legal thing that the legislature refuses to correct.
They've granted PG&E a monopoly and won't stand up to them properly. When I
was a California resident, I contacted my congressman about it almost monthly,
and got the same response: sorry can't do anything

------
ew6082
Well played, PG&E. Well played.

------
ListenLinda
I don't agree with this. Instead of California law makers fixing the problems
with the forests, they put the blame on PG&E. The state is just making the
problems worse by advocating that it's okay to miss-manage forests. We're
fighting one extreme problem with an extreme measure and solving nothing.

~~~
luckydata
lol, ladies and gentlemen we have our dear Potus amongst us.

~~~
dang
Please stop posting unsubstantive comments to Hacker News.

[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html)

------
gumby
We don't even _have_ PGE service in Palo Alto but they're telling us we'll be
cut off too. In 2000 we were subject to the rolling blackouts for reasons of
"solidarity" even though Palo Alto had access to power.

~~~
zamfi
PG&E still runs distribution even if you buy electricity from another
provider.

------
gesman
PG&E

Gone by the wind ...

------
paulsutter
“Choosing San Francisco in 2020 is like choosing Java in 2010... Proven, but
makes it harder to do simple things and doesn’t give you an advantage over
incumbents” -Balaji S. Srinivasan

~~~
cobookman
Yet Java is still a defacto choice even today.

Arguably minimal fuss & stable. Java code written today will still run without
change in 5 years. Can't say the same of other languages.

What other language would you recommend for a large eng organization of 1000+
ppl?

~~~
eloff
You literally could not pay me to program in Java. I've written non trivial
code in over twenty languages, but Java, php, and perl are so bad for team
projects that I would rather find a different job.

~~~
kjeetgill
I was ready to be sarcastic here, but I'm curious which of your 17 other
languages do you prefer? And why? And to do what?

I've always found that Java _particularly_ shines in team settings in a way
that a lot of individual productivity languages like python and Ruby fall down
atleast.

Obviously there is a broad spectrum of other languages between and beyond
them, but which do you prefer?

~~~
eloff
My favorite for a decade was Python, but it falls down in bigger teams and
projects. A little better these days with the static typing available and
proper linters and formatters, but not my first choice anymore.

I like Go and Rust the most these days. Not because they're perfect by any
means, but they avoid a lot of traps of the other languages and scale well for
the whole lifecycle of actual software development in teams.

Java is bad for a few reasons. The JVM makes everything an object on the heap,
which means you're always in a war with your garbage collector. You have to
run in bigger machines with plenty of memory headroom. There's a lot of
backward compatibility cruft, like the fake generics. The worst part is the
people though. The language is too mainstream but not hard enough to weed out
the bad coders, and they make a mess out of the code base.

------
ackbar03
Wow, really? A whole day without power? This is actually gonna happen?

~~~
pard68
Nearly the entire state of Connecticut was without power in 2012 for a few
days. Where we lived, city of 100k, we didn't have power for a week.

~~~
jsjohnst
Went without power for a week in the middle of Manhattan after Hurricane
Sandy. I lived on the 10th floor too and our elevators didn’t get restored for
over two weeks due to the basement flooding.

