
28M Mail-In Ballots Went Missing in Last Four Elections - forgot_my_pwd
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/24/28_million_mail-in_ballots_went_missing_in_last_four_elections_143033.html
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rgrove
The article's title is misleading, and it misrepresents the content and
conclusions of some of its sources.

The 28 million ballots in question aren't "missing"; they're ballots that were
mailed to voters and weren't used.

In some cases the voters in question likely didn't bother voting (common in
local elections) or simply forgot (I've done this when I accidentally stacked
other mail on top of a ballot and then didn't find it again until too late).
In other cases, voters may have moved and failed to update their voter
registration. This situation isn't unusual or alarming, and the opportunities
for fraud aren't nearly as plentiful as the article tries to imply.

The article cites a 2008 report by the CalTech/MIT Voting Technology Project
as recommending that states abolish absentee voting due to fraud concerns, but
that report contains only a single paragraph proposing a theoretical
_potential_ for fraud due to "unsecured" mail channels. It provides no
evidence that this is common or has even occurred, and in fact devotes
significantly more space to discussing the inconvenience of mail-in punch-card
ballots with Styrofoam backings — something I had never heard of despite
having voted by mail for almost two decades.

The article also cites a 2008 Reed College study, which again raises
theoretical concerns about fraud but offers no substantive evidence that it's
an issue, and in fact states that "A report commissioned by the federal
Election Assistance Commission, authored by Tova Wang and Jed Seberov,
concluded, on the basis of interviews with experts in the area, that there was
little evidence of voter fraud."

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joelhoffman
There's nothing magic about ballot sheets. Anyone could run off as many as
they want on a copier. What protects elections in vote by mail systems is the
fact that you can check your ballot status and everyone can only vote once. If
you steal my ballot, I get a replacement and we both vote, that will be
flagged. Plus you need to know how to forge my signature, which they _do_
check.

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masonic

      everyone can only vote once
    

Does your registrar even check that? SV's doesn't even check if a given voter
voted both precinct and absentee or if one voted in multiple precincts (e.g.
prior and current neighborhood after a move to another precinct). They don't
even check for existing registration in other precincts (let alone counties)
unless the voter explicitly provides prior-address data.

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specialist
Who is SV?

Every jurisdiction I'm aware of in the USA does ballot reconciliation, to
detect double voting. Some are using electronic poll books, updated in near
real time, to help prevent it.

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masonic
Silicon Valley, e.g. Santa Clara County.

"Ballot reconciliation", executed _perfectly_ , can only detect multiple
ballots by the same registration.

I'm talking about an individual registered _multiple times in separate
precincts_ simultaneously.

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specialist
Unreturned (uncast) ballots are not "missing".

USPS's UAA (undelivered as addressed) rate for first class mail is ~1%. Both
ways. Something for postal ballot advocates to consider. Make sure your
jurisdictions have online ballot trackers.

~~~
smitty1e
No, no, no.

These "improvements" are anything but.

If we value the integrity of our elections, we need to minimize the amount of
metadata generated.

You need:

\- a small pollbook of legal voters

\- a location for those voters to obtain and secretly mark a paper ballot

\- a means to cast that ballot and tally that polling place's numbers

\- a chain of custody for all ballots that protects the election's legitimacy

Elections, and the political power that they grant, demand that we curb our
natural tendency to over-engineer systems.

The more shiny, spiffy gadgets and doo-dads we apply to this process, the
greater the harm its legitimacy.

If you want, I can flog this dead horse all the way down to glue.

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cy_hauser
> \- a location for those voters to obtain and secretly mark a paper ballot

But then how do you get more poor and minority folks to vote? These are the
people harmed by not having mail in (or more appropriately called "time free"
voting.

Don't we want more participation? Especially by those who find current rules
end in a trade-off of wages for the ability to vote?

~~~
specialist
During the aughts, my small cadre opposed "vote by mail" (100% postal ballots,
limited in person voting) because we believed it'd disenfranchise the poor,
minorities, and students.

Anecdotally, because we had trouble accessing the relevant data, we reasoned
those populations are more mobile, with inferior mail service, so postal
balloting faces more challenges.

Until very recently, it seemed as though our predictions were proving true.

However, in my jurisdiction, since 2016, both voter registration and
participation has increased, seemingly durably. I dare not hope, for fear of
jinxing it, these trends continue.

Fast forward to today. I'm very worried about 2020. For so many reasons.

I've always supported postal balloting such that it enfranchises people who
would otherwise be disenfranchised. (Postal balloting was invented for people
serving in the military and otherwise wouldn't be able to vote.)

So during this pandemic I don't see any other choice than to permit postal
balloting for any and all (on demand, no justification necessary).

But knowing firsthand the challenges my jurisdiction had with a gradual well
funded switch over, it's going to be a nationwide fubar. Especially in non-
urban counties without the institutional knowledge.

Now, more than ever, we need to pour resources into election administration.
And managing expectations. For example, final results are going to take A LOT
longer, so people (especially media) should be prepared to wait.

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threatofrain
> States and local authorities simply have no idea what happened to these
> ballots since they were mailed – and the figure of 28 million missing
> ballots is likely even higher because some areas in the country, notably
> Chicago, did not respond to the federal agency’s survey questions.

> This figure does not include ballots that were spoiled, undeliverable, or
> came back for any reason.

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akhilcacharya
Blaming “ballot harvesting” on Hillary Clinton winning three popular vote is
really something.

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forgot_my_pwd
Well it's certainly part of the reason.

More philosophically, when one's voting agency is shared with another person,
as is the case in ballot harvesting, the opportunity for abuse multiplies.
This is why most states have outlawed ballot harvesting.

Consider: I come to your door with a ballot. You had not thought about voting
because you didn't particularly care about the candidates, but I am an agent
for candidate A and because I got to you before the agent for candidate B, I
convince you - good salesman that I am - to vote for someone you wouldn't have
otherwise.

Thus the voting process become less about what the voters themselves think or
care about and more about which candidate has the most resources to send
agents out to ballot harvest.

The corruption that such practices invite completely undermine the voting
process and it is only with a blatant disregard for the voting process - a
fixation on power above principle - that a state would allow such practices.

~~~
akhilcacharya
> Well it's certainly part of the reason.

No, the reason is that Trump is a historically unpopular person and President.
Blaming "ballot harvesting" is hilarious on the order of claiming Russia
altered vote totals.

The article makes a similar point regarding the loss of Orange County
Republicans, despite the fact that their prior strength has been eroded for
years based on the OC's demographic trends, the vilification of refugees in a
region with a vibrant Vietnamese community, and the elimination of the SALT
deduction. The article is partisan hand-wringing, pure and simple.

