
Bulgaria writes new chapter in long story of demographic decline - alberto-m
https://balkaninsight.com/2020/07/09/bulgaria-writes-new-chapter-in-long-story-of-demographic-decline/
======
nikolay
Bulgaria is a disaster due to being on the crossroads of the East, West,
Russia, and Turkey and the multitude of geopolitical and economic interests
andalso on the way of the drug channels from the Middle East to Europe. The
Balkan mentality, greatly twisted in the half millennium of Ottoman rule, does
not help much either. Things are much worse than what the numbers show,
unfortunately! The kleptocratic governments are covered up by the US and EU
just so that we can limit the influence of Russia in Bulgaria. Anyway, the
moral, mental, and health decline is much worse than the demographic one! From
a great example in the Soviet Bloc, we turned into the worst example in the
EU! Neither the West, nor Russia has interest in Bulgaria being a modern
country, because poor slaves are pulled by the nose much better!

Edit: I'm Bulgarian, I live in California since 1999, but I spend 2-3 months
every summer in Bulgaria and witness the constant decline every time.

~~~
selimthegrim
Ottomans have been gone for 200 years now, haven’t they?

~~~
MaximumYComb
The Ottomans have been gone for less time than the US has been free of
slavery. African Americans, as a group, are still struggling. I don't see why
an entire nation should be recovered.

~~~
mda
Comparing Bulgarians 200 years ago to african slaves in Usa is quite weird.
Blaming Ottomans for the todays Bulgaria's all problems is beyond ridiculous,
and maybe the sign of the real problem.

~~~
MaximumYComb
Would you prefer a comparison to Haiti, which gained independence 100 years
before Bulgaria?

~~~
selimthegrim
Did Bulgaria have huge indemnity to pay like Haiti?

------
axegon_
Starting with the first sentence, I have 1 single word for this - bollocks.

> Google “Bulgaria” and “demography” and you will rapidly learn that
> journalists and analysts have for years been reporting that the country’s
> population is one of the fastest shrinking in the world.

Looking at our press and journalists, the first thing you need to keep in mind
is that they rely solely on sensationalism: "everything is getting worse, we
are the most miserable and oppressed nation in the entire multiverse".
Essentially fox news, bild and daily mail. Because this is what sells best.
This is what gets facebook shares, comments and likes, simple as that. It
appears as if everyone has forgotten what the 90's looked like and what
queuing at 4 in the morning to get a bottle of milk was, daily shooting in the
streets and hyperinflation. Because this is what most of the 90's were. None
of which is happening anymore.

The population decline is a phenomenon which can be observed in most of
Europe, the big difference is that there is very small migration from anywhere
here which makes the issue more obvious (on paper) then in other countries.
There are a million and one reasons for this, like bad reputation(see the
paragraph above), language barrier which is a problem when it comes to daily
life and realistically racism, which may be a problem outside the capital(even
some large areas in the capital as well).

Families in most modern societies are shrinking. And while there was a lot of
immigration in the late 90's and 2000's, in recent years, the numbers have
gone down drastically and there is a factor which no journalist will dare
speak of because it goes against the "everything is worse than ever" rhetoric.
The number of people who have returned after a certain amount of time spent
abroad(me being one of them). I was one of the first that fled back for
multiple reasons. And while the question "but why" was pretty common back
then, no one has asked me that question in over 5 years.

~~~
jariel
While you can take umbrage with the tone of the piece, it seems your concern
for the 'bias' in the article has maybe led you astray with respect to the
fundamentals.

Bulgaria unquestionably has a demographic problem related to emigration that
is completely different from 'the rest of Europe'. Since 2000 (after the 'ugly
times') Bulgaria has gone from 8 -> 7 million.

This is not derived from 'family sizes' \- this is squarely a problem of
_emigration_ and it has everything to do with the social and economic
conditions there vis-a-vis other places in Europe.

What needs to be considered is how the EU of the last 20 years, which is a
merging of Rich/Poor Europe has resulted in the obliteration of healthy
working people and educated class from E. Europe overall, to the benefit of
the 'rich west'. There may be some neoliberal advantages, in that, those
people are perhaps able to achieve better employment and income with a
'greater net productivity for Europe' \- but it's not going to benefit
Bulgaria a whole lot.

Much like businesses make short term decisions on employee work spaces because
the 'sticker price' of cubes or offices is so much greater than 'open tables'
and whereupon the productivity if private spaces is hard to measure ... it
seems the 'free money' flowing from the EU is just too tangible to consider in
the face of the more 'strategic' concern of mass emigration.

As soon as you start to value those intangibles, it would seem that an
economic union might actually have made more sense than a social one.

~~~
axegon_
This is a very simplistic view. Keep in mind that before 2007 emigration was
borderline impossible. The first time I set my foot on foreign soil was in
2002 in Greece. And that was for a holiday with an invitation which went
through the Greek embassy and a copy of my parents' income to verify that our
intention was indeed to go on a holiday. A process which took around 4-5
months. So once the gates were opened, understandably, many fled. I know a few
people who fled before that and many of them spent years living in migrant
camps and this isn't for everyone.

I'd argue that the vast majority of the people who have left/are leaving are
not educated. Statistically most of them are construction workers, taxi
drivers and so on. Yes, arguably some of them have education. I know one which
was an electrical engineer but I'm not joking when I say that he has no idea
what the difference between direct current and alternating current is. Hence
the reason why he ended up delivering pizzas. Which is not to say there aren't
educated people who have emigrated but that's not a real issue:

And the counter argument - people like me who went there young, studied abroad
and returned afterwards. Which was the case for many of the people around me.
60 people out of 90 in my class from school went to study abroad. 59 returned.
And believe me, when I left I had no intention of returning and neither did
most of the others. But things have changed and at a certain point it made
more sense to make that step. Which is arguably one of the best decisions I've
personally ever made. And for those 59 people, we were the early adopters of a
huge wave of people to do that. The one that didn't return? Well honestly, a
tiny country has very little to offer to a world class cancer researcher. I
see nothing wrong with that, on the contrary - bravo.

At this point I'd say the biggest problem the country is facing is not
economical, or political but... I can't even call it social. Mental is
probably the right word. The notion that the grass is greener everywhere else.
The idea every country has it better. And annoyingly that comes from people
who have never lived anywhere else or even worse-never even been anywhere
else. The problems you face elsewhere are simply different and as an alien,
they are much MUCH worse and often you have even less people to rely on. Been
there, done that.

------
krastanov
I am confused by the negativity expressed in this comment section. This
article presents a fairly positive outlook on how things are changing in
Bulgaria (when you wrap your head around the idea that for a small country it
is not the total number but the structure of the population that matters). The
article mentions a number of serious outstanding challenges, but it also lists
multiple reasons to be pleased with how things have changed.

~~~
pgtan
this is because the Bulgarians, unlike the Germans for example, are capable of
(social) self-criticism and self-irony.

~~~
krastanov
Are you saying the negativity is ironic or sarcastic? That sounds like a cheap
excuse.

Self-criticism and self-irony are also extremely important, but they need to
be constructive, not just self-flagellation.

But your claim that Germans are not self-critical now makes me think your
comment was sarcastic and I missed the sarcasm. I apologize if that is the
case.

------
ggm
No young bulgarian-australians would go home permanently, based on the
experience of the one who did, tried to helm a Rom, wound up on a stabbing
murder charge, and has been held against high court judgements he should be
allowed to go home, all because the dead person was the son or relative of a
senior Bulgarian minister. Revenge politics writ large.

If they want to reverse a demographic decline, they will need to respect
fundamental rule of law.

~~~
hinoki
Due the the typo (helm a Rom => help a Roma), I couldn't follow, but some
Googling turned up Jock Palfreeman [0].

[0]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jock_Palfreeman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jock_Palfreeman)

~~~
ggm
The same source, if explored for Roma/Romani:

 _In the Romani language, Rom is a masculine noun, meaning 'man of the Roma
ethnic group' or 'man, husband', with the plural Roma._

------
seer
People in HN might be interested to know that Bulgaria has one of the (second
place I think) biggest difference between average salary in IT and average
salary for everybody else.

Being part of the EU it’s easy to find an IT job, with all the work from home
initiatives now more than ever. SO being the poorest country in EU you can get
to some ridiculous standards of living if you are in IT.

And in the recent five years or so the bigger cities in the country have upped
their game quite a bit. Before the covid crisis I liked to hang out with
foreigners visiting the country and all of them mentioned it being a very
positive experience. They often start researching rent prices and such.

~~~
f6v
I guess that is true for any Eastern European country, especially if there's
an easy way to avoid taxation.

The cost of life is low for anyone working in IT, especially remotely.
However, I wonder if the infrastructure makes it worthwhile. The roads in
Sofia have probably not been repaired since 90s. And there's no public
transportation routes available in Google Maps.

~~~
distances
> And there's no public transportation routes available in Google Maps.

I don't think this signifies anything though. It's up to the cities to decide
if they want to publish the routes and timetables, and many choose not to.
Including western cities, such as Montpellier and others in France.

~~~
f6v
But also ordering a taxi didn't work for me, since you have to call a phone
number, where they promise a taxi at the airport, and it doesn't arrive. I
assume Amazon or anything like that isn't present as well.

------
thiagocesar
At some point, the EU has to see a pattern of degradation and corruption, and
start engaging actively with the people of the countries, instead of just
expecting places such as Bulgaria and Romania to wake up and decide to be rich
and developed out of nowhere.

~~~
mschuster91
The EU knew the state of Bulgaria and Romania before inviting them to join.

The general idea was that a certain amount of nation-scale wealth transfer
(e.g. via infrastructure projects, ag subsidies) and individual wealth
transfer (e.g. remittances of people working abroad) would help bring the
former Eastern Bloc countries up to speed, gradually remove corruption and
transform towards democracy.

Let's keep it at "the idea was nice, the actual execution was... flawed".

~~~
kavalg
Just out of curiosity, when you say actual execution do you mean the execution
done by EU bodies or the execution of the government(s) of Bulgaria?

~~~
mschuster91
Both to be honest, and that's not just for Bulgaria/Romania but all former
Yugoslavian and USSR countries, and even Western-allied countries such as
Greece and Italy.

The EU failed to predict local government's corruption or outright destructive
behavior (e.g. Visegrad blockade in refugee questions), its foundational
assumption was that member states were all aligned towards one common goal and
not behave actively destructive. Local governments failed to uphold their
values and more often than not saw the EU as a cash cow waiting to be
exploited.

------
stanislavb
Some insights: after the communist regime fell, the country was taken over by
mafia organizations and most of the old secret services took many places in
politics. i.e. there was a seeming democracy serving mostly the people playing
against the law and same old and corrupt guys that used to be part of the
communist party. As a result, many capable and smart people just left as soon
as they could. Unfortunately, that is still the fact - the country is run by
the mafia and it has the highest level of corruption in EU.

~~~
m000
And that's the problem with the EU. It will happily turn a blind eye to
corruption as long as the exports keep flowing.

~~~
digianarchist
The fact that Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania were given membership to the EU is
baffling.

Fast forward to today, Liviu Dragnea is serving time for abuse of power,
Bulgaria is still dealing with corruption and the Hungary government continues
its assault on democracy.

It's beggar's belief why any of these nations membership has not been
suspended.

~~~
selimthegrim
Isn’t EU’s top anti corruption official Bulgarian? I don’t think she got there
by being bad at her job

~~~
veselin
No. She is Romanian. As a result, Romania's GDP was going in a much better
trajectory before the local politicians tried to stop her and bring the
country back on the old corruption path.

~~~
bad_user
The old elite fighting back was inevitable.

I am optimistic however. These things happen in a two steps forward, one step
back fashion. And unfortunately for the corrupt in this country the geenie is
already out of the bottle.

You'll see in the following years.

My Romanian bretheren tend to be more pessimistic. I recommend this book:
[https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/34890015-factfulness](https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/34890015-factfulness)

------
okareaman
I read the article but I didn't see a definition of the problem. Fewer
Bulgarians means what?

~~~
atdt
It means whole towns with no children, and older people wasting away in agony
because there is no one left around to care for them.

~~~
p2t2p
I am a Russian who moved to Australia. My parents kept voting for Putin for
last 20 years, were never politically engaged and never supported the
opposition.

If Bulgaria situation is any similar then for those older people that agony is
of their own creation.

------
demarq
it seems to me things get better as the population reduces, i’m not sure why
there is a focus on maintaining it or increasing it.

in fact one of the most interesting parts of that article is that
discrimination was no longer tenable given that the value of each worker had
gone up

------
hristov
The main problem with Bulgaria is mobsters and corruption. Bulgarians tend to
be hard working and there are a lot of successful Bulgarians abroad but inside
of the country one always has to live in fear that too obvious success will
attract the wrong attention and the mobsters which more or less control the
courts will just take everything they want from him.

So a lot of the smarter and more ambitious people leave to try to make a
living in the west, while the rest try to live and work while being careful
not to piss off the wrong person.

On top of that you have the West screwing over the country the usual way the
west screws over developing countries. By buying out infrastructure and then
raising prices, etc. This they do glove in hand with the mobsters and the
corrupt government.

So the result is that most major businesses are oligopolies of some type or
another. Either because they have been taken over by the mob or a couple of
western conglomerates have bought out all the options. Or combination of the
both. Prices are high in comparison to salaries and most Bulgarians live in
what one would consider poor conditions. Thus family formation is low.

The EU membership has been very beneficial in putting in infrastructure and
the sort. However, EU membership has also brought in a lot of real estate
appreciation without a commensurate raise in ability to pay rents.

I think things are improving. Mostly because of software and technology. In my
experience Bulgarians seem to value education and hard work so there are a lot
of programmers. Also, the mobsters who at this point own all the important
real estate, have decided to more or less leave technology companies alone.
They have figured out that this will maximize the value of their existing
holdings.

Thus there seems to be an unwritten license to run a tech company in Bulgaria.
The industry seems to be thriving with native Bulgarian startups and R&D
offices being open by major western companies. Lately I have even noticed a
trend of expats from western countries going to Bulgaria to do a start up
where life is cheaper. Most Bulgarians in the big cities speak some English.

The tech industry also tends to give out decent salaries, so people in that
industry do not quite live in poverty. In trendy bars and restaurants in Sofia
and Varna you can usually see the mobster crowd and the tech crowd living side
by side uneasily giving each other furtive glances.

Thus far the government seems to value and encourage tech business. For
example, in contrast to the crumbling roads, Bulgaria seems to have some of
the best internet in the world. But the government and their friendly mobsters
run the show and they can do anything they want in the future. So my optimism
is very measured.

~~~
econcon
Same is true for most developing countries like India, Pakistan, etc...

The people have control over others through muscle power and threats and law
can't reach them as they also control all guardians of law.

------
SergeAx
Back in the late 80s when I was spending days hacking on USSR-made clones of
Apple II in my school, lots of components (floppy drives and diskettes,
monitors) was made in Bulgaria. I wonder what happened to then most
technologically advanced country of Eastern Block?

~~~
tenebrisalietum
If you played around with the Agat you should write some blogs. Agat seems
really interesting from what I've been able to learn about it - it was like a
32-column Apple II with SECAM color.

~~~
SergeAx
Yes, it was. Not in the mood for retroblogging yet, maybe 5-10 years later,
thanks for the idea)

------
11235813213455
"dramatic", "pessimistic".. Hey, isn't it beautiful to have less dense human
populations and more room for nature? I mean it's not as if humans were an
endangered species

------
forgotmypw17
If you can't get past the splash image like me:

[http://archive.is/LGCzt](http://archive.is/LGCzt)

------
pippy
I've never bought into the ruse of an increasing population implying a higher
standard of living. Politicians love this as a stagnating economy can appear
to be doing better, by pointing to an increased GDP that usually rises with an
increased population. They'll never mention how much per capita adjusted for
inflation it is. When inequality rises, they'll pretend it's unrelated. Of
course the extra stress on the infrastructure, housing, hospitals and schools
are all things that their predecessors will have to worry about. They're the
first things that conservatives will conventionally not increase funding for.

We measure GDP as it's traditionally an indicator for a standard of living.

------
dutch3000
why is a declining, human population bad?

------
f6v
Bulgaria is the EU imperialism poster child. Make it impossible to find a job
inside the country and blame everything on communists.

Beautiful country though, and the food beats everything I've seen elsewhere.

------
JBiserkov
"All other countries have a mafia, in Bulgaria the mafia has a country."

~~~
ekianjo
Can we say the same thing about Mexico and the cartels?

~~~
wahern
The Mexican federal government seems to be fairly independent. All the various
high-profile corruption cases prove this out, as they generally seem to have
been singular installations and conversions of corrupt officials from below,
however numerous. I think the problem in Mexico is the sheer inability of the
federal government to effectively project its power across the country, both
because of lack of resources and because of systemic corruption at the local
level. Sometimes this seems to rise to the level of complicity, but I think
it's more a reflection of the fear that exposing their impotence through
failed enforcement operations would only worsen the situation.

By contrast, the allegations are that Bulgarian political leadership isn't
simply in the pocket of the mafia, they _are_ the mafia leadership. It's sort
of like in a military coup where the General-cum-President installs all his
lieutenants into government office and otherwise changes the system so that
the military controls all the levers. That's a quite different situation than
in Mexico, and I'm not aware of any analogous situation anywhere else unless
you play semantic games--e.g. consider as "mafia" the oligarchs and
aristocrats of kleptocratic regimes. Such gross equivocations are great for
manipulating outrage, including diversionary outrage--e.g. whataboutism--but
not particularly constructive.

~~~
ekianjo
> political leadership isn't simply in the pocket of the mafia, they are the
> mafia leadership

If the mafia becomes the government, technically you can't call them the mafia
anymore, because they have become legitimate once they gain political power.

------
jojobas
Oh just import few million of refugees, worked everywhere else. /s

