

Mobile applications, RIP - blackswan
http://mobileopportunity.blogspot.com/2008/02/mobile-applications-rip.html

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TheTarquin
As someone who develops mobile apps for a living targeted at industrial
markets, I would amend that headline to read:

"Mobile Consumer Applications, RIP". I'm sure the authors comments are spot-on
in the general consumer market (which seems to be his area of expertise), but
the custom, industrial mobile app market is alive and well. Admittedly, most
of the companies involved are large beasts and move slowly, so I'm still
developing for Embedded DOS and older Windows CE versions, but the market is
quite healthy.

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BrandonM
What the hell was the point of those charts? I couldn't make this up... he
said, "Here's a chart to help explain the situation," then he showed two
graphs with no figures on them whatsoever based on data that he pulled out of
his ass. Then he spent two paragraphs talking about these charts. He could
have just as easily related the same idea without showing pseudocharts.

That gripe aside, the article was quite solid, but it failed to mention the
business implications. If a mobile provider was smart enough to open up its
devices, create an API for developers, and allow that API to be used for free
by any device manufacturer, that provider would see an influx of new devices,
app developers, and customers. Other providers, wanting to enable these
applications on their network (and maintain their customers) would be forced
to open their devices as well, devices with the same API layer. Problem
solved; mobile apps everywhere.

Instead, in the US at least, providers continue to try to lock every customer
into a two-year contract to keep them from leaving, instead of relying on
their quality of service.

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misterbwong
Hm. It seems like the mobile space is following the same path as the PC space.
Phones (like PC's) are tending more towards thin client status. As soon as
Android and Webkit are up to snuff with rich web apps, we will be seeing
mobile phones in a whole new light.

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jamescoops
Yeah just develop mobile internet sites - forget the java apps for now

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BrandonM
Forget the Java apps for now? I would forget them for longer than that. Java
is not particularly optimized either for programming or for the OSes of mobile
phones, and it's losing market share in the programming world to other
language alternatives. If there is a "next mobile language", it will either be
something akin to the C/Unix paradigm (where the interface between language
and OS/hardware is a thin layer), or it will be high-level enough to be worth
its runtime inefficiencies. The best case would be that it would be both, and
someone would write a compiler which would convert the latter to the former.

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jan_g
Two words : google android.

At least emulator looks ok, we have yet to see actual devices.

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davidw
This is my biggest fear with Hecl. Hecl makes mobile apps easier, putting them
within reach of people who aren't Java whizzes, but the web makes it easier
still.

However... people are still worried about connection charges, and phones _are_
getting more capable, to the point where you can do some fairly interesting
things on them, like with Android.

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dualogy
"people are still worried about connection charges"

Don't count on that for too long. Over here, the web didn't take off on a
massive scale with broadband, but with the introduction of flat rate
subscriptions. Mobile web flatrates are a reality already. Next, carriers
might compete on price for their flat rates. At some point, connections
charges might become a non-issue.

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apathy
My wife's iPhone has free unlimited data, not-free text and mobile-to-land-
phone minutes. Guess how she harasses me to pick up our daughter or buy
specific groceries?

FWIW, I've rarely seen such a brilliantly executed electronic device in my
life. I thought it was outrageously overpriced -- now I'm wondering if it
isn't a halfway decent deal for the interface and capabilities of the thing.

I continue to carry the cheapest Motorola piece of shit that will accept my
SIM card, but I'd be lying if I said I didn't envy the iPhone.

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mercurio
The iphone might yet change this.

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apathy
The iPhone is driving the change he writes about -- the mobile Web, instead of
mobile-specific Java apps (for example).

It strikes me as a colossal ''duh''. Would any of us be here reading this site
if Paul Graham hadn't had a similar insight with regards to selling shit (via
the Web) in 1995-96?

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mercurio
I meant native apps on the iphone. A lot of people are looking forward to the
SDK.

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axod
I'm not so sure it matters TBH.

What can you do in a native app that you can't do with some javascript and a
pretty webapp these days :/

The days of native apps is ending. On the desktop, on mobile phones,
everywhere.

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jacabado
Save energy? IMHO it matters a lot!

Javascript-based apps are bad enough on desktop, I don't want to have them in
my mobile device.

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axod
I'd rather be able to use the same app on my phone as I do on my desktop, as I
do in an internet cafe, as I do on my wii, etc etc.

Webapps are the true "Write once run anywhere".

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gustaf
Great post!

