
Altucher: NYC Is Dead Forever - tomcam
https://jamesaltucher.com/blog/nyc-is-dead-forever-heres-why/
======
cddotdotslash
I live in Manhattan and stayed put throughout the pandemic. Compared to months
ago, NYC is doing quite well, culturally at least. Yesterday I took a walk
from midtown to FiDi and back. Restaurants were open, diners were enjoying
outdoor seating, families were out and about, stores were open, bikers were
biking, and it really felt like _something_ was back to some semblance of
"normal." Not to mention that compared to the rest of the country, it feels
like we've passed the worst of the pandemic storm.

There is a whole other financial issue affecting the city right now, however.
Tax income is going to drop off a cliff, many stores have closed, and some
percentage of wealthy people may leave, which will force the government to
confront its sky-high spending and investments in social programs.

NYC will certainly look different, and may take several years to fully
recover, but I think declaring it dead at the height of a globe-altering
pandemic is premature.

~~~
StanislavPetrov
There is also this issue of skyrocketing violent crime that many people are
choosing to ignore. As an older person who lived through the "bad old days" of
NYC in the 70s, 80s, and early 90s what's happening today is, unfortunately,
very reminiscent. The pandemic aside, the utter and total leadership failures
of Deblasio and the City Council have led us to where we are. The NYC that
many people have come to know and enjoy for the last 25 years is sliding back
into a very different kind of city, with our "leaders" doing absolutely
nothing to address the issue.

[https://gothamist.com/news/49-people-shot-72-hours-wave-
gun-...](https://gothamist.com/news/49-people-shot-72-hours-wave-gun-violence-
continues-nyc)

------
greghausheer
Please note that this article was written by the "Bitcoin" guy.

[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meet-man-behind-bitcoin-
geniu...](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meet-man-behind-bitcoin-genius-ads-
internet-134441715.html)

I wouldn't take anything he says seriously. There's probably a buck in it for
him to flip to write something like this.

------
brooklyndude
Soho is packed with outdoor diners.

I went from phone call to CT Scan in 17 mins at NYP hospital.

Museums open August 24.

Whole Food delivers to my front door. Your local herb friend probably does
too. And how many Apple Stores?

Got my new NYC lease. Landlord raised the rent. Guess he’s not buying the doom
and gloom?

NYC will do just fine. We’ll figure it out.

:-)

~~~
hansvm
> Got my new NYC lease. Landlord raised the rent. Guess he’s not buying the
> doom and gloom?

He doesn't think you buy the doom and gloom anyway. You did pay after all.

------
AtlasBarfed
Rents are down, so that will eventually attract people back. A supply and
demand problem in the classic case.

Office buildings can be converted to housing in the short run.

In the long run, in-person offices will probably beat distributed teams in
many industries, like finance where small margins produce results. Especially
since Goldman Sachs probably likes to discuss strategic plans like
destabilizing national economies in private and in person.

Near-tautological cycles of real estate appreciation in high demand urban
centers have prevented addressing major glaring problems, so a correction to
the demand curve and valuations may enable zoning reform in order to get
people back to the city.

Finally: why would anyone move to Phoenix with looming global warming?

~~~
jgalt212
> Office buildings can be converted to housing in the short run.

This is just not feasible in the short run due to huge costs of extra plumbing
and other infrastructure changes. Hotel to housing conversions are much
cheaper.

------
onecommentman
Two obligatory comments:

1\. Manhattan is not NYC. There are five, count them, five boroughs. Didn’t
Johnny T on Glove and Boots teach you numbskulls nothin’? Manhattan is one
borough. The author would probably wet his pants if he stepped into Brooklyn,
and require a full adult diaper if he found himself on Staten Island.
(Exaggeration for humorous effect, but he should know better.)

2\. The “how dare you kick my dog, he’s great" posts that show up when NYC is
disparaged are par for the course here. They show an admirable love and
loyalty for Manhattan and, who knows, they may have read about the Bronx in a
book somewhere. There will always be a Manhattan unless they tow it out to sea
and sink it. (Imagine the Environmental Impact Statement for that project.)
Will the Manhattan of the mid and late 1900s still be around? Paris still
thrives, but does the Paris of the 1920s still exist?

3\. Waiting for the inevitable dumping on New Jersey that happens when NYC
starts getting insecure...

~~~
PhantomGremlin
I grew up in Manhattan in the 1970s. There was only one borough that mattered.
Nobody gave a fuck about any of the others.

I suppose it's different now, parts of Brooklyn might matter.

 _inevitable dumping on New Jersey_

Mr. Richard Feder of Fort Lee, New Jersey, is that you? Roseanne Roseannadanna
says "you belong in New Jersey".

------
CydeWeys
This guy can't see past the end of the pandemic and on that basis alone is
declaring NYC dead forever?? What a garbage article.

~~~
cvhashim
Sensationalism pays

------
infoaddicted
The author's context is too narrow, NYC will definitely be a different place
going on, but that has been true for centuries.

------
bobosha
With due apologies to Winston Churchill: "the rumors of my death are greatly
exaggerated" \- NYC

~~~
anonu
Mark Twain

------
kuang_eleven
You see this kind of reactionary pearl-clutching every day of the history of
the human race. NYC will change, as will everywhere on Earth, it is not dead.

~~~
gridlockd
NYC is dead _right now_. The question is whether it will come back to life.

My hunch is yes, because it is still a good brand.

~~~
beamatronic
Are the fundamentals still sound?

The biggest fundamental being challenged now is “Do people need to work in the
same physical location?”

~~~
Mediterraneo10
Wouldn't remote working actually make hipsters across the country free to move
to a city that has a brand that resonates with them?

~~~
paul_f
New York is not built on taxes collected from hipsters.

~~~
Mediterraneo10
The era when some of New York City (even parts of Manhattan) had substandard
public services didn't stop hipsters moving there. A city might not be
corporately "thriving" with a tax base of such residents, but due to the power
of its brand the city can still draw alternative young people and keep the
legacy of art and culture going.

------
gbronner
NYC has taxed the wealthy very aggressively to pay for cultural entertainment
(to keep the wealthy) and social services that help reelect the politicians
who set up this system. Clearly there will be changes coming.

------
jshaqaw
If there is a viable vaccine or vaccines by early 2021 then all of these
histrionics will vanish into the clickbait ether from which they came.

------
markrages
Netcraft confirms!

------
Jaruzel
> _But NYC is the center of the financial universe._

Erm...? I think London, Singapore, Hong Kong and Tokyo would disagree.

I stopped reading at that point tbh.

~~~
gridlockd
Orbiters...

------
scroogeydop
Why do I care what this random guy thinks? Is this “old man yells at clouds”
hour?

~~~
brooklyndude
He’s not some random guy.

~~~
scroogeydop
He’s nobody to me. Also his writing is very poor and full of histrionics. He
should take a class somewhere.

~~~
smkellat
That leaves the question of who you are and why your opinion matters then. You
could be a rogue GPT-3 experiment for all any of us know.

~~~
scroogeydop
At least I’m not out there writing condescending blog posts where I bloviate
about cities ceasing to exist. Gimme a break.

------
3327
This poor person is broken, clearly he has a rough time and is a defeatist.

I try to never hire defeatists into my companies and screen for them.

the pendelum will swing back and corporates will see that culture and office
also matters.

~~~
gridlockd
Maybe, but sometimes change is permanent and cities lose their elevated status
forever.

History is rife with examples.

~~~
3327
Of course, history is full of such examples.

Calling timing is hard, he may be right but it may not be this time round.

