
Scotland to seek second independence referendum - ruairidhwm
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39255181
======
Someone1234
Disclaimer: I'm English.

One can hardly blame them. I was a unionist during the first referendum simply
because I thought we were stronger together and felt that the Scottish made
the UK as a whole more liberal (which, to be clear, is a GOOD thing).

But after Brexit one cannot blame or criticise them for wanting to leave. I
want to leave too! If their choice is being part of a fairly progressive EU or
a conservative/paranoid/racist English-Welsh alliance then they're better off
leaving and trying to gain EU membership.

My only concern for Scotland is that they wouldn't be able to gain (re-gain?)
EU membership then would be left out on their own for many years. So I
definitely think the Scottish leadership needs to better plan out EU entry
relative to the last referendum.

With or without Scotland, England is a sinking ship, better that other
countries don't tie themselves to her mask as she flounders.

~~~
sambeau
Disclaimer: I'm a child of English parents who was born in Wales but grew up
in Scotland. I have Scottish and English children, in-laws and cousins. I have
a family home in Scotland but I currently live in England. My children live in
England and Scotland. Some of us live in Italy.

What a fucking mess of a total fucking disaster. None of this needed to happen
and it's a total nightmare for me and my family.

If this goes through the UK is gone totally and both countries could sink.

I have no idea whether I'd get Scottish Nationality without moving there.
Similarly, I assume the same goes for my children.

While the future back in the EU looks like it could be good (eventually) for
Scotland there is no guarantee that Scotland will match the criteria in the
short term and there may be no EU in the long term if Marine le Pen gets her
way.

Do I move to go with them? Do I stay here and wait until its too late?
Presumably if I qualify to be Scottish so does half of England. What happens
then?

As for the economics—they are super-scary—worse than the economics of Brexit
as Scotland not only proportionally trades more with rUK than UK does with the
EU there is the little matter of £9bn subsidy UK gives Scotland plus other
costs that Scotland will have to take on that look like being a £15bn a year
shortfall. Imagine what devastation those kind of cuts will wreak on a small
country of 5-6m people?

I'm terrified that once the dust settles and Scotland is free of the UK and
having to slash services to meet EU entry requirements the whole mood of
jolly, liberal, civic nationalism could come crashing down to normal nasty
nationalism and people like me and my family who are reasonably well-off with
english-sounding accents could soon see bricks crashing through the windows.
Similarly, once the IMF and European banks start to dictate spending policy,
European immigrants my be less welcome there than they are now. These are
fears not predictions but I think they are plausible scenarios—Hungary seems a
case in point here.

On the upside, weirdly, we may see a united Ireland come out of this fiasco.

~~~
pbhjpbhj
>Disclaimer: I'm a child of English parents who was born in Wales but grew up
in Scotland. I have Scottish and English children, in-laws and cousins. I have
a family home in Scotland but I currently live in England. My children live in
England and Scotland. Some of us live in Italy. //

This may be an indication of the problem. To my view your opener should be
"I'm a child of British parents, born in Britain and grew up in Britain. I
have British children. I, and my children, live in Britain. Some of us live
elsewhere in the EU."

Somewhere we've hung on to the the idea that we're a [loose] amalgam of
separate nations to which we really owe our loyalty [if any is owed]. Whilst
that doesn't seem to be the case in other parts of the world [corrections?].
Which other sub-divisions of single countries compete internationally in
sports for example?

~~~
sambeau
I would have but that would have made things very confusing: I feel 100%
British. My immediate family is scattered around the UK our forefathers were
scattered throughout the British Isles—one half of the family was Irish. Even
my English parents have Scottish blood somewhere down the line.

Even worse for me, I'm an internationalist and I felt very proud to be part of
the EU for many of the same reasons I felt proud to be part of the UK: civic
nationalism. The UK was the worlds most successful civic nation built on
mutualism between a number of ethnic countries. To break up on ethnic borders
and return to tribalism is heartbreaking.

~~~
pjc50
> built on mutualism

Was it?

I mean, that's how it's taught in schools, but how well does that reflect the
actual history? Certainly it doesn't represent the UK's history with Ireland,
which _really_ isn't taught in schools. That's how people like Melanie "wrong
about everything all of the time" Phillips can write national newspaper
articles in which Ireland has a "tenuous claim to nationhood".

This is kind of the problem, we have all this national mythos that runs up to
about 1966 and then stops. And it doesn't bear scrutiny in the modern age. The
last attempt at building a national narrative that worked for everyone was the
Blair era "cool Britannia", and half a million dead Iraqis took the shine off
that a bit.

Not to mention the inward focus of Unionism. Everyone looks towards London,
but London doesn't look outwards. Occasionally it dispatches a foreign
correspondent to Manchester to report on conditions. The average English
person thinks of Scotland little and NI not at all.

~~~
rmc
> I mean, that's how it's taught in schools, but how well does that reflect
> the actual history? Certainly it doesn't represent the UK's history with
> Ireland, which really isn't taught in schools.

How it's taught in schools in UK/England perhaps. In Ireland the history class
is all about how England is a horrible oppressor of Ireland. ;)

------
byefruit
What a legacy Cameron has left.

Alienation of our nearest neighbours and the likely dissolution of the Union.

It's also looking likely that Brexit will cause problems for the Northern
Ireland peace arrangement.

~~~
edblarney
The people voted, not Cameron.

One could argue that the root political problem is the EU itself.

Nationalist movements are on the rise across Europe: The Dutch are about to
give their top choice a pretty hard core 'anti Muslim' guy. The French will
have a runoff between Le Pen and probably Macron. The Sweden Democrats are
polling at 22%. True Finns have incredible influence. Austrian nationalists
lost the presidency by a tiny margin. Brexit. Poland. Danish nationalists form
government. Admittedly, Catalonia and Scotland are a different strain.

And a massive division between periphery, core and Eastern Europe on
'existential' issues.

For most of these issue, failure of EU leadership, and hostility and
intransigence towards the will of the plebes led to this. It could have been
avoided.

'For or Against' \- the EU as we know it is dead - it didn't want to adapt -
so Europe is adapting underneath it.

I don't think it will break up, but nothing will ever be the same in EU-land.

~~~
holri
* Austrian nationalists lost the presidency by a tiny margin. *

46.21 % to 53.79 % is NOT a tiny margin.

~~~
jpetso
Those are the numbers for the second attempt, where the first attempt was
50.3% vs. 49.7%, won only after counting mail votes, and that first result got
annulled because of challenged vote counts.

~~~
holri
This second attempt is a huge success of the far left wing candidate, while
everybody was and is still babbling about an unstoppable right wing trend.

------
planetjones
The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's
now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will
be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the
case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland
must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very
strongly - and I think the issue of currency will be a central issue (if
anybody other than the SNP can be bothered to campaign - the Westminster
Government will have their hands full with brexit negotiations, so I doubt
Scotland's independence will be top of their agenda)

~~~
edblarney
"The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed."

Polling for almost a year (see Wikipedia) indicates that it will not succeed -
there's only one of more than a dozen or so polls that puts independence ahead
- and then only by one point. 'Remain' are ahead by 10 points in the rest.

The easy trump card to play is the fact that Spain and others (Belgium) will
not allow Scotland to join the EU, even if they do - it will take years.

An 'independent Scotland from an independent UK' is a huge pile of risk for
people to stomach.

With the UK faring economically well since Brexit (I know A50 has not been
triggered, but investors have already priced in what they know, and A50 is a
sure thing) - this is not the 'Brexit horror' story the indyreffers wanted.

I would also point out that these things can fatigue on people, and that after
a while, even soft Nationalists see the tactics of separatists.

The SNP said the last referendum was a "once in a lifetime" event - and that
was 4 years ago. 'The situation has changed' \- surely - but nevertheless, it
makes them look rather without credibility on the surface of it.

It will be very interesting though.

~~~
drzaiusapelord
> this is not the 'Brexit horror' story the indyreffers wanted.

I think its going to kill a lot of people when they see 'Brexit horror' not
materializing. The UK has a powerful economy (number 5 in the world) and as
such can certainly work out beneficial trade deals alone. Its not a Greece-
like mess that benefits from the Euro and the Euro's backers. Without the
shared currency and having a land border with other EU nations, its
questionable if the benefits are worth it. At least, they come with
liabilities.

I certainly see the various pro EU political argument at work here and many
have validity, but the economic one is fairly weak sauce. If anything, the UK
has a stronger negotiation position as its own entity, assuming they play
their cards right. If Scotland wants to go independent then fine, but using
brexit as an excuse is very questionable.

>even soft Nationalists see the tactics of separatists.

I wonder how many separatists are being honeydicked by Russia. Russia has been
funding separatists and far-right political parties in the West for its own
gain for quite some time now. Perhaps people are starting to see through their
ultra-tailored Facbook newsfeed, hysterical yellow journalism, legitimately
fake news, and other biased media. I suspect the Trump win the US is showing
people that yes, an electorate can go crazy with outsiders and extremist
policies, but that doesn't mean that's actually good for the electorate.

Ignoring Spain's own separatist fears, the EU members probably are fairly wary
of any separatist talk right now, especially after seeing what happened in
Crimea, and don't want to encourage it and certainly don't want to signal that
separatism is a quick way to EU membership. Not to mention NATO membership,
are the Scots ready to invest 2% of their GDP into defense (nearby $4bn)?
We've probably moved towards an anti-separatist attitude in the West for the
foreseeable future due to recent events. According to the guardian, the yes/no
spread is the same was it was in 2014, so the idea that Scotland has become
more separatist is questionable:

Between August and December last year we polled over 3,000 Scottish adults and
found yes to Scottish independence on 46% and no on 54% – just a fraction
different from the result two years earlier.

[https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/27/shift-...](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/27/shift-
scottish-independence-yougov-nicola-sturgeon-balancing-act)

~~~
pjc50
> UK has a powerful economy (number 5 in the world)

Not 5th any more:

[http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4056296/India-
overta...](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4056296/India-overtakes-
Britain-world-s-sixth-largest-economy-earth-planning-send-130-million-aid-
end-2018.html)

(yes the mail is unreliable but I thought I'd pick the most Brexity source)

~~~
drzaiusapelord
Looks like India's recent growth have edged them out, but I just want to point
out that's why, not because the UK is falling. Its just India is, finally,
catching up to the rest of the world. This is good news for India and doesn't
take away from the UK. Also, remember we're talking about an economy of merely
65m people that chimes in at 6th.

UK GDP growth fits in at almost 2% which is where the USA sits at as well and
typical of later-stage capitalist countries. EU darling and once economic
powerhouse France is at .3%. Spain is only recently getting out of negative
growth, for comparison.

~~~
selectodude
UK GDP growth is almost entirely due to financial services and legal sectors
in London, who just received the official notification that London is no
longer the banking center of Europe.

~~~
drzaiusapelord
Yet somehow everytime I see these fairly dramatic predictions about the US
losing its petrodollar and the dollar collapsing or banking moving to
$other_country, $cryptocurrency, etc or everyone switching to the Yuan or
Ruble, etc they are almost always wrong.

I think you're dismissing how powerful inertia is in the financial sector and
how the EU needs the UK and as such will work out agreements to keep things
going. London wealth and banking is most likely very safe. Remember, London as
the premier financial center of Europe predates the EU by a few hundred years.
It is not an outgrowth of EU membership.

------
Y_Y
Self-determination and post-colonialism only seem to apply away from home.
Madrid has a big influence on this because of Catalonia and Basque country,
but there are tons of non-self-governing territories[0] which are swept under
the rug, or clung to with claws of "economic uncertainty".

It's funny that Scotland lost its (semi-)independence by trying their own hand
at colonialism[1].

[0] [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_list_of_Non-
Sel...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_list_of_Non-Self-
Governing_Territories#List_not_complete) [1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darien_scheme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darien_scheme)

------
dijit
I am Scottish from birth- I spent nearly my entire life living in the middle
of England.

The English are very angry about this and are touting Sturgeon as a crying
"remoaner". They believe that they had a referrendum recently and therefore
it's just "keep trying until you get the result you wanted".

If you're a person with that in mind I have a few things to say:

1) the UK being a member of the EU was something sorely needed, but people
consider it a trade union deal and not anything else. Therefore they use the
argument that the EU has changed enough to warrant leaving.

2) Scotland largely voted remain last time because it was immediately evident
that the EU would not allow Scotland to join- since Spain and the remaining UK
was in strong favour of vetoing entry. This has fundamentally changed.

3) Now Scotland will not remain in the EU despite voting overwhelmingly to
remain. Leaving the EU now would be the antithesis of "the will of the
people".. so you can't say that "they voted, get over it".

I'm rather sour on the whole experience regarding Brexit, there has been a
_lot_ of smug mudslinging from the leave side, and they've already tried to
scapegoat the remain campaign as being "not with the program" and subsequently
sabotaging the leave campaign.

~~~
thenomad
Also worth noting that a major point of the anti-independence campaign last
time was that Scotland _would get to stay in the EU_ if they stayed part of
the UK.

That has obviously changed somewhat.

------
sarreph
If you continue to give a misinformed, divided public chances at irreversible,
macro decisions, then they will eventually vote in favour.

This is why these kinds of decisions are not plebiscites!

------
andy_ppp
Can London please also seek independence and stop sending huge sums of money
to the rest of the UK. I'd even be happy with the Euro or our own currency The
London Pound. We might need to ask Donald Trump about building a wall
though...

You might not even have to charge people who lived in London income tax, for
example, due to the large number of companies based here.

;-)

------
johansch
[https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/27/why-have-polls-not-
show...](https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/27/why-have-polls-not-shown-shift-
towards-scottish-in/)

"Why have the polls not shown a shift towards Scottish independence?"

~~~
hackerboos
Latest polls have Yes on 49%.

The First Minister needs a big swing in the polls to Yes somewhere in the 6X%
to get this to pass.

[https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/scottish-
in...](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/scottish-independence-
why-second-vote-back-on-table-nicola-sturgeon)

~~~
danielsamuels
I think when the Brexit deal is clearer the swing will effectively be an
Scotland's approval rating of the deal.

~~~
hackerboos
You're right. Calling a second referendum is the best way to apply pressure on
the UK government.

If the terms are unfavourable to Scotland, they will likely leave the union.

------
tzs
Suppose Scotland does vote to separate from the UK, presumably with the
intention of attempting to gain EU membership.

My understanding, based on a whole minute or two of Googling, is that the
relationship between the parts of the UK, such as Scotland, England, Wales,
and Northern Ireland is similar to the relationship between the states in the
United States: if you are a citizen of the union, you are automatically a
citizen of whichever part you live in.

I wonder, then, if between the time of the vote and the time that independence
actually happens if Scottish independence would trigger a lot of movement (1)
to England of Scots who do not want independence from the UK or who do not
want to try to join the EU, and (2) to Scotland of English who want a shot at
staying in the EU?

~~~
Symbiote
Citizenship isn't clear at all. There's no clear concept of English, Welsh,
Scottish or Northern Irish citizenship -- we are British citizens, and
European Union citizens. During the previous independence vote in Scotland,
the people who voted were British, Commonwealth and EU citizens _resident in
Scotland_.

Around 800,000 people born in Scotland live elsewhere in the UK. Millions more
presumably have a parent born in Scotland, but weren't themselves.

I was born in England. I emigrated from the UK in 2015, and briefly considered
registering as resident in Scotland (rather than England) just before I left,
on the off-chance that Brexit went ahead without Scotland. However, the
likelihood seemed remote, so I didn't consider it seriously.

------
neverminder
I see this as a lose-lose scenario. If Scotland votes to split - it is
effectively the end of UK as we've come to know it for a very long time.
Fracturing is almost always a bad idea and bigger countries almost always do
better than the smaller ones. If they vote to remain that will be bad as well,
because it will embolden the politicians (tories in this specific case) that
they can get away with anything (breaking up the country with their disastrous
Brexit in this particular case). I am a european living in UK.

~~~
diakritikal
> Fracturing is almost always a bad idea and bigger countries almost always do
> better than the smaller ones.

This is demonstrably false: roughly half of the top ten countries ranked by
standard of living and quality of life are small European nations about the
same size as Scotland.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Dev...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index)

~~~
jonathansizz
I think neverminder meant that, amongst countries that separate, the larger of
the new countries will generally be better off than their smaller neighbour.
Your list doesn't address this point.

Examples would include Pakistan-Bangladesh; Czech Republic-Slovakia; and
Sudan-South Sudan.

~~~
legulere
Your own list has a counterpoint: Bangladesh has a better HDI than Pakistan.
Republic of Ireland also has an higher HDI than the UK and they were in much
worse state than the UK when they became independent.

------
gozur88
What do these kinds of referendums mean? This is just three years after the
last "once in a generation" referendum. Let's say it goes independence. Will
supporters be okay with _another_ referendum three years later that might
reverse that decision?

It all smacks of opportunism and reminds me of all the other EU-related votes
that keep happening until voters pick the right answer.

~~~
restalis
It seems that the state affairs have the means to be more agile nowadays. It's
a good thing that switches can happen more than once in a generation.

------
ruairidhwm
I'm extremely excited for it. There's a huge amount of division in UK
politics, and in Scottish politics.

I suspect that there will be the arguments about currency and EU membership
which the UK government will lobby to make life difficult for Scotland, but as
the pound is doing poorly and we're leaving the EU anyway, there isn't much to
lose.

------
alkonaut
I thought the threat of Scotland leaving was what was going to sway the Brexit
vote to a clear No.

I hope everyone who voted leave understood that it was the dissolution of the
union they voted for, and not some backtracking into a pre-EU britain.

~~~
aembleton
The referendum was not binding. The decision to leave the EU was taken by MPs.

------
ed_blackburn
I wonder if this will effect the UN Security Council membership? The
dissolution of the UK and it's nuclear naval bases based in an EU country
which is anti-nuclear weapons.

------
bussie
There's no guarantee that Scotland will be allowed into the EEA or EU as an
independent nation. In fact, some member states are opposed to it.

~~~
nailer
> In fact, some member states are opposed to it.

Which ones? Generally the EU wants more stable democracies to hold up the
others.

~~~
NachoDuck
Primarily Spain I think? I couldn't find a good source saying they would block
the membership outright but there's an article here which includes some
details about which states are opposed the EU negotiating potential membership
for Scotland as part of Brexit (I realise that's slightly different to
Scotland joining as an independent nation).

'Brexit: Spain and France oppose Scotland EU talks' \-
[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-
politics-3665...](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-
politics-36656980)

~~~
Snowdax
Spain has just come out last week and said that they are OK with Scotland
joining the EU as long as England has signed of on Scotland leaving the UK
first and the independence process being completed. The implication being that
it would not set a Catalonian precedent as Spain would be inclined to never
sign off on Catalonia leaving in the first place.

~~~
nailer
> England has signed of on Scotland leaving the UK first

England doesn't 'sign off' for whether Scotland is in union or not as that is
Scotland's choice, not England's. England acknowledge this and would never say
otherwise.

------
mcbruiser1
how is voting to remain in the EU a vote for "independence"? seems like
exactly the opposite of independence.

~~~
6Typos
Scottish independence from UK

------
grabcocque
Based on current polling, it seems the SNP would likely lose this one too.
Which makes me suspect they're bluffing.

~~~
tomtoise
Ah yes, like the 'current polling' at the time suggested the UK would
definitely remain in the EU, or that President Clinton was a surefire thing.

~~~
arethuza
The "Project Fear" approach was used successfully in the 2014 referendum and
then failed in 2016 because very smart political strategists such as Dominic
Cummings worked out how to counter it.

Given that the approach used to achieve the Brexit vote has been documented in
great detail I wonder how we'll see them applied in this new referendum?

~~~
TheOtherHobbes
The approach used to achieve the Brexit vote was to lie about everything and
to write off rational reality-based objections as "Project Fear."

Unfortunately in international politics, winning a vote at home doesn't
translate to a winning move internationally.

The huge disconnect between how Brexiters think the world works and how the
world really works isn't subject to a popular vote or to media spin. It _is_
going to cause the UK - well, England - catastrophic problems over the coming
decade.

