
Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary - mooreds
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html
======
aazaa
> An important part of CDC’s role during a public health emergency is to
> develop a test for the pathogen and equip state and local public health labs
> with testing capacity.

Testing for COVID-19 has been an unmitigated failure in the US.

Whatever advantage may have accrued from closing travel routes has been
fritted away by preventing local authorities from testing. Without testing,
there's no way to say anything about the safety of the American people.

CDC needs to explain the American public how this was allowed to happen,
especially since other governments seem to have had no problems despite being
called into action much sooner.

Without a clear explanation, the public will have no confidence in what the
CDC says as the disease spreads.

The self-congratulation on the presidential podium during the last two
pressers has been disgusting and disgraceful. There's nothing to celebrate or
congratulate here. The entire group dropped the ball.

~~~
sizzle
This is a failure of our politicians who have been slashing funding of said
institution. How do you expect them to do their job properly when underfunded?

~~~
TMWNN
No. The CDC budget was never slashed.

The president proposes budgets, but that's the starting point of negotiations
within Congress. Congress has consistently increased the CDC budget.
[https://apnews.com/d36d6c4de29f4d04beda3db00cb46104](https://apnews.com/d36d6c4de29f4d04beda3db00cb46104)

~~~
newhere2020
The Trump administration fired the U.S. pandemic response team in 2018 to cut
costs.

Snopes TRUE [https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-
team/](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/)

~~~
TMWNN
COVID19 was not a surprise; that is, it was known to exist in China some time
before the first cases appeared in the US. It is not unreasonable for a
government to assemble a team to respond to something like a pandemic as
needed, as opposed to having people dedicated solely to the purpose and
nothing else. Both the NBC News and _Washington Post_ articles the Snopes
piece cites describe the action as part of moving people to related
departments as part of the new National Security Advisor's desire to have his
own hierarchy, and the head of the dedicated team resigning after not getting
his desire to keep the team the way it was.

You may or may not agree with this. But please don't claim that this is
somehow prima facie proof of the Trump administration's malfeasance/evilness.

------
dboreham
>This virus is NOT currently spreading widely in the United States.

Curious how this is known given practically zero tests have been done and
numerous cases with no contact external to the US have been discovered.

~~~
ransom1538
Easy. %20 of the cases require some type of hospitalization. %80 are mild and
don't require medical attention. If you have Covid-19 rampant in your town -
the hospitals will fill with persons experiencing a bad flu - that %20.

[https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-80-percent-
cases...](https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-80-percent-cases-are-
mild-2020-2)

~~~
EthanHeilman
Is it still the case that you have a two week latency before symptoms? If so,
that would make detecting the early stages of an outbreak without testing
exceptionally hard.

~~~
lubesGordi
I think that's true only if transmission is possible before noticing symptoms.

~~~
gattilorenz
Relatively rare but transmission between asymptomatic people has been
detected/confirmed for this virus.

------
nickjj
If anyone is curious, it's now officially in NYC.

Someone came off a plane from Iran. She was officially tested but since she
wasn't dying the hospital sent her home for self-quarantine.

Feel free to Google it to read it on whatever site you prefer, but here's a
snippet from the Weather channel's site (I saw it when checking the weather
today):

> _A woman in her late 30s contracted the virus while traveling in Iran, Gov.
> Andrew Cuomo 's office said on Sunday. She is currently self-quarantined in
> her Manhattan home. The woman has respiratory symptoms “but is not in
> serious condition and has been in a controlled situation since arriving in
> New York," the governor's office said. The statement didn't say when the
> woman returned to the city after her travels, though a statement from Mayor
> Bill de Blasio said the travel was recent._

~~~
hurricanetc
First tested and confirmed case in NYC. There have been numerous reports from
NYC residents who returned from areas with community spread, got sick, tested
negative for the flu, and the CDC wouldn’t test them.

I think in a few weeks we’ll find out that Coronavirus has actually been
spreading in NYC for 3+ weeks.

The CDC is incompetent.

~~~
simonh
The CDC doesn't do much local testing. Mainly they provide test kits to local
labs which do the tests.

Please bear in mind that CDC funding for international coordination on
pandemic control was cut by 80% a few years ago, and since 2018 they have not
had a representative on the National Security Council, and had their senior
Pandemic response positions eliminated.

Reports that their overall funding was cut are not accurate, Congress
fortunately re-instated their basic funding in the budgets before it came to
that, but they have taken a severe political beating and been very much
sidelined in recent years, which has not set them up to do their best work.

The problem seems to be one of political perception. Most epidemic and
pandemic threats originate outside the US and so significant parts of the CDC
are oriented towards detecting, isolating and eliminating threats outside the
US borders. They also work closely with international health agencies. The
current US administration confuses this with 'aid for foreigners', when it's
actually vital national defence.

~~~
whatshisface
Of course, this is not related to the weird issue with tests not being
available. Local hospitals are being prevented from running their own tests
not by a lack of availability, but by a special directive that activates
during a public health emergency.

~~~
dotancohen
Can you elaborate on that? I haven't heard of this.

~~~
whatshisface
Take a look at this:
[https://twitter.com/davidalim/status/1233032552056807426](https://twitter.com/davidalim/status/1233032552056807426)

Fortunately I heard this is in the process of being lifted. We should see the
tests coming soon.

------
wolfhumble
Situation reports for the whole world from the World Health Organization (WHO)
are posted here every day: [https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-
coronavirus-2...](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-
coronavirus-2019/situation-reports)

This link was posted 34 days ago on Hacker News, but was then [flagged], but I
am not sure why (?):
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22168119](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22168119)

------
jtdev
Seems like social distancing and a recommendation from the CDC of cancelling
mass gatherings of > 5000 would be a great measure to slow the waves of
infection that are likely to hit and overwhelm healthcare systems if such
measures are not taken.

HIMSS 2020, a conference of ~45000 attendees from 90+ countries is still
scheduled to go forward at Orange County Convention Center Orlando March 9-13
- even as major participants withdraw from the event and Florida declares a
state emergency. It's very telling of the motives in the health tech industry.

~~~
jtdev
Oh, and many of these 45000 attendees are in fact healthcare workers! So
following the event, any attendees exposed to COVID19 are likely to bring it
back to the healthcare facilities and communities where they work, creating
many additional clusters of infections and transmission.

------
eden_hazard
Just want to drop this story from Reddit:
[https://old.reddit.com/r/nyc/comments/fayko1/my_covid19_stor...](https://old.reddit.com/r/nyc/comments/fayko1/my_covid19_story_brooklyn/)

------
Footkerchief
Striking summary from the WHO report: [https://www.who.int/docs/default-
source/coronaviruse/who-chi...](https://www.who.int/docs/default-
source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf)

> Much of the global community is not yet ready, in mindset and materially, to
> implement the measures that have been employed to contain COVID-19 in China.
> These are the only measures that are currently proven to interrupt or
> minimize transmission chains in humans. Fundamental to these measures is
> extremely proactive surveillance to immediately detect cases, very rapid
> diagnosis and immediate case isolation, rigorous tracking and quarantine of
> close contacts, and an exceptionally high degree of population understanding
> and acceptance of these measures.

------
lettergram
Sent this to my friends and family yesterday:

> it is important to note that current global circumstances suggest it is
> likely that this virus will cause a pandemic.

CDC really isn’t mincing words - this is going to be bad and we should start
social distancing to slow the spread.

~~~
hartator
Pandemic is defined when a virus reaches multiple continents so it’s already
the case.

------
danmaz74
For those who want constant updates about the international situation, this is
the best source I found so far:
[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

By the way , I'm wondering how much the high cost of the test in the US is
responsible for a number which looks (to me at least) suspiciously low.

~~~
oneredoak
I’m a big fan of the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 map, with the ability to click on
individual states:
[https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

~~~
akeck
Using the JH dashboard numbers, is the death rate calculated by
3000/(3000+45000) or 3000/89000?

~~~
whatshisface
Neither, both would be skewed. That's because death happens after infection
and recovery takes longer than death, and the number of cases is growing. What
you want is dead/recovered N (28 for example) days after infection, which you
will have to find elsewhere.

------
say_it_as_it_is
And now I have to question the accuracy of the reports by a government agency
that is under a constant threat of job termination if it does not comply with
misleading the public..

------
unityByFreedom
> Updated February 29, 2020

Why post this here/now?

This page is updated once every few days and there is no change log so it is
hard to see news. I don't think anything has changed significantly in the past
couple days.

------
6d6b73
I find it interesting to compare what's CDC is doing right now ( messed up
tests, not enough testing, protecting markets but not people) to what we can
see CDC doing in movies like Contagion where they are on top of everything
before anyone else even knows that the there is a new virus in the wild.

~~~
HelloMcFly
I can tell you with absolute certainty that the CDC often _does_ know about
outbreaks and events before it's generally known to the public. Usually these
instances are only of interest to the local communities they are operating in.
This is of a different magnitude, and while they haven't slept on the job
there's been both external factors and misjudgments in the response that have
left them playing catch-up.

~~~
justforyou
You know a handfull of people at the org, and were downplaying problems at the
CDC last month.

The CDC slept on this during critical periods, and employees at the CDC did
not step up and whistleblow when there was a chance to have a meaningful
impact on the spread of the virus.

Stop making excuses for them.

------
jcadam
My family just got over some sort of respiratory bug that had most of us sick
last week. This morning I awoke to find that 2 cases of this thing have been
identified in my area. Huh.

We most likely just had a cold. Most likely.

~~~
101404
Go for testing. The virus is still present (but not contagious anymore) some
time after you recover.

~~~
peterwoerner
why would s/he pay $3000 to get tested for something s/he already recovered
from?

[https://twitter.com/NickKristof/status/1234140218023989253](https://twitter.com/NickKristof/status/1234140218023989253)

~~~
lm28469
This is plain ridiculous. It's like the US is 50 years late on
social/health/worker conditions. Mandatory paid sick leave sounds like a
win/win thing no matter how you look at it.

> The U.S. is the ONLY wealthy nation that doesn't guarantee all workers paid
> sick leave, paid family leave & health coverage. This means many workers go
> to work sick

~~~
101404
Don't blame the US. Here in Germany, its 300 EUR out of pocket to get tested
(source: tagesspiegel from a few days ago, a story about a guy in Berlin,
returning from a trip to Italy and wanting to get tested before getting
together with his wife and kids. Doctors didn't want to see him, and the only
clinic that was willing to do the test would charge 300 EUR. Public health
insurance doesn't pay. Private health insurance probably would though, but it
sounded the like he had just public).

------
lurquer
Serious question...

In light of the fact that this virus has never been tested for before, how
does one know the virus hasn't been part of the popilation for centuries? How
do you know your last flue wasn't in fact Covid-19?

With some illnesses -- say smallpox -- you can 'count' the number of cases by
symptoms alone.

But for this, it seems the symptoms in the majority of cases are
inonsequwntial... similar to the flu or cold.

I don't know what happened in Wuhan. But, as far as the rest of the world,
there does not appear to be any significant increase in actual illnesses
requiring hospitalization. At least nothing that wouldnt otherwise manifest
itself during flu season.

~~~
eqdw
According to this very report, 80% of cases are "mild or moderate". This can
mean anything from getting the sniffles for a while, to full on pneumonia (but
not enough pneumonia to have to go to the hospital).

Yes it is technically correct that the majority of cases are mild. I wouldn't
call that "inconsequential", or "similar to the flu". Maybe "Similar to the
worst flu you've ever had", although the important distinction (need hospital
vs get better on your own) remains the same. But that statement is true in
roughly the same way (and with roughly the same probability(+)) as saying "the
majority of people who play Russian Roulette win". Yes, I have an 83% chance
of living. I still don't want to play that game

\----

(+) According to this very study that we are all commenting on right now, ~20%
of cases need hospitalization, and a majority of those cases will be fatal
without it

~~~
lurquer
Thanks for the response.

But, my question remains... what evidence is there that this virus is new as
opposed to something that has been in the milieu -- causing pneumonia and
deaths in the elderly -- for decades?

Put aside the 'confirmed cases' and the like, and focus on sheer symptoms: is
there any statistically significant uptick in the number of seriously ill
people in the non-Wuhan populations? (I exclude Wuhan because, frankly,
neither I now anyone else knows what the hell is going on there.) I keep
hearing of one or two 70- or 80-year olds dying here and there... In the same
time-frame thousands in this same cohort have died from, presumably, influenza
and any other number of respiratory illnesses.

How do we know that the elderly haven't been getting Covid-19 and dying of it
at these rates for decades?

I'm genuinely curious. At this point, the story is being driven by politicians
and bureaucracies with incentives to plan for the worst... I don't expect a
logical and rational analysis from them. But, I do from HackerNew posters.
Surely I'm not the only one looking at these numbers, the dearth of
information about the test's false-positive rates, the utterly inconsistent
data coming from Wuhan vs. the rest of the world, and scratching my head? Am
I?

~~~
jdance
I dont have much to add I’m afraid (feel free to downvote me) but I’m quite
intrigued of the HN reaction to this thing. The smartest people in the world
(kind of) are also just scared I guess. The usual coolheaded rationalism seems
for the first time skewed towards ”its bad I just know it”. I look at the
numbers and still cant quite understand what they’re seeing that I dont. I
guess its the fear doing it, because we really dont know, and thats just plain
scary. And maybe a tinge of satisfaction to be part of this huge drama plays a
part too :)

------
whoevercares
“Updated February 29, 2020”

It’s March 2nd already why this is still not yet updated again? This has to be
updated frequently...

------
NicoJuicy
What is "funny", is that the CDC pandemic team was not replaced by the Trump
administration. They quit because they got less funding.

So calling the CDC incompetent doesn't seem to describe the complete story.

------
hintymad
I was curious why Canada has not had a breakout, given that Canada didn't shut
down any flight, and many people from China, Iran, and Korea fly in and out of
Canada.

~~~
mclightning
I dont know if it counts as a breakout but Canada has 19 confirmed cases so
far.

------
DyslexicAtheist
the data posted to the CDC website seems all over the place. e.g.
[https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-
us.html](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html)

right above the table the report says:

    
    
       Updated February 29, 2020
    

Looking at their editing history on archive you can see how their numbers
evolved over time:
[https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://www.cdc.gov/coronaviru...](https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-
in-us.html)

inconsistencies/errors in the report (e.g. 21st Feb they claimed 479 total
tests):
[https://web.archive.org/web/20200221040933/https://www.cdc.g...](https://web.archive.org/web/20200221040933/https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-
in-us.html)

updating sites without linking to versioned data doesn't give a lot of
confidence, but then it's hard to blame them considering Trump admin slashed
their budget in 2018.

~~~
xenonite
.. Trump didn’t succeed in slashing the budget, however.

> Trump’s budgets have proposed cuts to public health, only to be overruled by
> Congress, where there’s strong bipartisan support for agencies such as the
> CDC and NIH. Instead, financing has increased.

[https://apnews.com/d36d6c4de29f4d04beda3db00cb46104](https://apnews.com/d36d6c4de29f4d04beda3db00cb46104)

~~~
DyslexicAtheist
thanks for clarifying that

~~~
xenonite
On the other hand I should add that the staff was cut or changes, with severe
impact nonetheless.

From
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22446649](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22446649)
:

> However he did indeed cut the people tasked to deal with pandemics.
> [https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-
> trump...](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump..).

>> But other White House efforts included reducing $15 billion in national
health spending and cutting the global disease-fighting operational budgets of
the CDC, NSC, DHS, and HHS. And the government’s $30 million Complex Crises
Fund was eliminated.

>> In May 2018, Trump ordered the NSC’s entire global health security unit
shut down, calling for reassignment of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer and
dissolution of his team inside the agency. The month before, then-White House
National Security Advisor John Bolton pressured Ziemer’s DHS counterpart, Tom
Bossert, to resign along with his team. Neither the NSC nor DHS epidemic teams
have been replaced. The global health section of the CDC was so drastically
cut in 2018 that much of its staff was laid off and the number of countries it
was working in was reduced from 49 to merely 1

------
nickjj
So here's a serious question.

What are the odds of you getting this virus by handling a DVD that was shipped
in the mail from someone who is infected?

I'm actually thinking about suspending my Netflix DVD subscription for a bit
because if people are put on "self quarantines" then they might be inclined to
watch movies which means they are potentially shipping contaminated DVDs
around the country.

Can this virus live for 1-3 days without a host?

This seems like a really bad way for it to spread if it can survive without a
host for a bit. There you are, sick, laying in bed at night, maybe rubbing
your nose, coughing, touching various parts of your body, laying in a bed
you've been in all week while you recover, and then you handle the DVD with
your hands, seal it up and send it across the country which is then shipped to
someone else.

~~~
Loughla
From the WHO:

>From previous analysis, we know coronaviruses do not survive long on objects,
such as letters or packages.

~~~
nickjj
Thanks.

Although, their definition of "do not survive long" isn't crystal clear.

The WHO article you've quoted came from here:
[https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-
coronavirus-2...](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-
coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters)

But that's specifically in reference to receiving letters from China which
might take a decent amount of time to cross the globe without human contact.
In the Netflix case, I'm sure the turn around time for a DVD to go from
household A to household B is a lot less time than China to the US.

