

Oil price shock means China is at risk of blowing up - iamelgringo
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/07/ccview107.xml

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hugh
One thing I've wondered: why aren't there more factories in Mexico? With low
wages, high unemployment, semi-skilled workers, lax environmental laws and
easy access to the world's largest market it would seem to be an ideal place
to outsource manufacturing to. What does China have that Mexico doesn't?

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mynameishere
There are lots of factories in Mexico.

 _The industrial sector as a whole has benefited from trade liberalization; in
2000 it accounted for almost 90% of all export earnings._

 _25.7% of total GDP_ (...vs about 40 percent for China.)

I think there might be some differences, though, as the success of Japan,
Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong seems to be predictably repeating itself.
Something about the Asian character doesn't seem typical,

[http://www.motherjones.com/news/exposure/2005/07/exposure_58...](http://www.motherjones.com/news/exposure/2005/07/exposure_580x468.jpg)

[I haven't done the above since the 3rd grade. Lining up for a bathroom break.
Geez.]

~~~
hugh
_[I haven't done the above since the 3rd grade. Lining up for a bathroom
break. Geez.]_

You obviously don't go to the same bars I do, then.

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geuis
So my opinion is not one that many people necessarily agree with.

Good. China needs to be knocked back a couple of pegs. We have been looking at
nearly 1/6th of the population of the world controlled by an incredibly
repressive regime and most of their citizens aren't even aware of how
restricted they are.

I also look at this from the perspective of an engineer. How in the history of
the world did we ever get to a point where it was cheaper to ship parts from
the U.S. to China for assembly and then back to the U.S. than to do all of the
manufacture here at home? The shear amount of energy that has been expended
has been ridiculous.

All of the cheap cash inflow into China has fueled the massive growth of very
inefficient coal plants throughout the country by the thousands. The people in
China have energy needs, but because of the disregard and corruption of the
government they have been polluting themselves in the headlong rush to catch
up to the Western world.

The system of global trade that has emerged over the last 20-30 years is an
extremely inefficient system that needs to undergo some serious refactoring.
This will result in some major temporary economic disruption across the world,
but we'll all be better for it in the end.

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drcode
We won't be better in the end- All crude that can be extracted will still be
extracted and burned in an engine. Furthermore, if China's economy goes
downhill they'll never cut back on their coal burning.

Also, they aren't polluting themselves because of "government corruption" but
because they have no other avenue to economic growth. A democracy in their
position would act no different.

I'm not sure it helps anyone or anything if China "gets knocked back a couple
of pegs."

This isn't a game of cribbage where the US "wins" because the other guy's peg
got knocked back a couple of notches. If they lose, we lose. The reason we
have our high standard of living is because we've been mooching off the
Chinese population's cheap labor for our consumables all this time.

The only way the world will burn less oil is if there isn't enough left to
burn- Not because the "nice guys" win and will chose to stop polluting...
there are no "nice guys".

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helveticaman
China is a little too 1984 for my tastes. It's not as bad as North Korea, a
literal 1984 society, but it's pretty awful.

~~~
michaelneale
Having traveled there a few times it doesn't "feel" that way (or perhaps it is
hard to detect the surveillance !).

