
Preliminary assessment of the International Spreading Risk of Coronavirus [pdf] - Anon84
https://www.mobs-lab.org/uploads/6/7/8/7/6787877/wuhan_novel_coronavirus_jan26.pdf
======
devy
This is the paper summary: [https://www.mobs-
lab.org/2019ncov.html](https://www.mobs-lab.org/2019ncov.html)

And this is the Google Data Studio Visualization Dashboard:

[https://datastudio.google.com/reporting/3ffd36c3-0272-4510-a...](https://datastudio.google.com/reporting/3ffd36c3-0272-4510-a140-39e288a9f15c)

And data is provided by official source from DXY.cn,
[http://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia](http://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia)

------
devy
The least expensive and safest approach of preventing a spreading of 2019
nCorv outbreak globally is still isolation, isolation and isolation.

If the human contact is absolutely unavoidable, then you follow the guide in
the link.

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dzdt
This estimate is broadly consistent with that published last week by a Imai
et. al. [1] That previous work looked at foreign cases up to 18th January, and
concluded the number of contagious cases in Wuhan as of that date is likely in
the range of 1000 to 9700.

This paper gives estimates of Wuhan-area cases ranging from 7600 to 43600 for
January 26.

A doubling time of 6 days was estimated for the pre-lockdown phase of the
Wuhan epidemic. [2] That gives a factor of 2.5 increase in cases between Jan.
18 and 26.

Unfortunately the newer estimated case numbers are somewhat higher than 2.5
times as many; probably the older number were too low.

Note the estimated rate of increase is much LOWER than one would naively get
from looking at the officially confirmed case numbers. Confirmed cases have
been more than doubling every two days. This growth rate of confirmed cases is
really the rate of increase of China's capability of carrying out confirmation
labwork.

There exported case research shows there is still a huge backlog of
unconfirmed cases to be identified in the Wuhan area.

[1] See "Report 2" at [https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-
disease-ana...](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-
analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/)

[2]
[https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1505090-20200127.h...](https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1505090-20200127.htm)

~~~
cs702
2.5 indeed looks too low now.

The median estimate of the size of the outbreak by Imai et al as of Jan 18 is
4,000; the new median estimate by Chinazzi et al as of Jan 26 is 21,300
(assuming a catchment population of 20M, their middle case). If both median
estimates happen to be spot-on, the size of the outbreak would have grown by a
factor of 5.3 between those two dates.

~~~
dzdt
I don't think you've got the right conclusion. The earlier estimate of the
total cases was too low.

Probably the newer estimate of total cases is ALSO biased too low. The reason
for underestimate is they are assuming international surveillance found all
exported cases. The paper describes this shortcoming:

 _The estimates contained in this report have been constantly growing with
respect to older versions compiled with the data available at previous dates.
This is because the number of detected cases at International locations and a
travel history from Wuhan city has nearly tripled in the last week. It is
worth stressing that this is not implying that the epidemic is growing at the
same rate. The estimated size of the outbreak refers to all cases occurred in
the area since the beginning of the outbreak, and notification and detection
delays may play an important role that, at the moment, do not allow the
evaluation of the epidemic growth rate._

~~~
cs702
Thank you. Yes, you're right. It seems more likely that earlier estimates were
low.

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s_Hogg
This is interesting. China can't cover up the true scale of the outbreak
because the rate of infection overseas quickly gives the game away if they are
publishing very low estimates of domestic infection.

~~~
Anon84
It’s pretty hard to cover up the dimension of an outbreak after it gets
outside your borders. There are many things you can use to infer what the real
dimension is likely to be.

That being said, it’s also entirely likely that even the Chinese known exactly
how many cases there are:

1\. Cases aren’t detected unless you feel sick enough to go to the doctor

2\. Even if you go to the doctor, the symptoms have to be strong enough for
the doctor to order the specific test. This is a bigger factor in the early
days. After the alert is given they likely start testing everyone, at least
until the outbreak is large enough that it becomes moot

3\. The big question (that I haven’t seen answered yet) if how long the
assymptomatic incubation period is. In other words how long can you spread it
before realizing you’re sick.

In the end, the factor that will determine how large of a global outbreak were
actually dealing with is now transmissible it is from person to person. From
what I’ve seen all foreign (outside China) cases have been traced back to
China, meaning that person to person transmission isn’t a large factor yet.
If/when it does become a factor that’s when the real containment “game”
starts...

~~~
rixrax
Some other unanswered questions:

\- recovery time? E.g. How long for the virus to run its course for those that
recover.

\- total number of recovered people

\- why no babies / kids appear to show up on fatality statistics at least?

\- how useful are those surgical masks for preventing getting sick / infecting
others?

\- what kind of masks actually provide protection against virus?

~~~
mike_d
> \- how useful are those surgical masks for preventing getting sick /
> infecting others?

After SARS the CDC published updated guidance on masks in relation to
Influenza in general. TL;DR is use regular paper masks for general population,
hospital staff, and patients. N95 masks for staff doing intake and direct
treatment. This addresses the primary problem with N95 masks: hospitals
running out.

The "N95" rating means it filters 95% of particles 3 microns or larger.
Research showed only Influenza particles 4 microns or larger carried enough
RNA to replicate successfully.

~~~
s_Hogg
Any chance of sources for this? I could put a few minds at ease with this info

~~~
mike_d
Here is a bit of an overview:
[https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/masks.htm](https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/masks.htm)

You can also read _Respiratory Protection for Healthcare Workers in the
Workplace Against Novel H1N1 Influenza A: A Letter Report_ published by
National Academies Press for all the details.

------
imlina
I was a bit frustrated when I couldn't easily find an online guide to prevent
the spread of coronavirus.. so I went ahead and compiled all the info I read
and made this Coronavirus Prevention Guide
[http://stopcorona.org/](http://stopcorona.org/)

Hopefully it gets seen by enough people who will put the tips into practice
and slow down the spread of the virus.

~~~
CheesecakeFred
There is no information on the often-called "symptoms". What are the symptoms
one should be aware of, one should check for?

~~~
imlina
Symptoms and severity vary between individuals but most common is fever and
coughing. Very similar to cold and flu symptoms.

To learn more please try googling this topic and look for reputable resources
such as webmd or similar.

~~~
CheesecakeFred
Thanks.

You made a guide homepage in the post I answerded to, which repeatedly
mentions "if you have these symptoms". But the symptoms are not mentioned in
the guide.

I think for a proper guide you should absolutely list the symptoms of corona
virus at the introduction.

I searched in search engines. As far as I could find the corona virus symptoms
are similar to pneumonia. The main symptoms are fever, cough and pain in the
lungs.

This is not similar to flu symptoms which do not necessarily spread to the
lungs.

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botwriter
I'm amazed Phnom Penh isn't on that list.

there are a lot more cases which aren't on the official figures.

~~~
hackerbabz
What information do you have about that?

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AllegedAlec
I think it's frankly disgusting that the international community did not learn
from SARS. As has been said before, to stop the spread of a virus, you need
containment and isolation. All trafic to and from China should have been
stopped at the first mention of a new corona virus emerging there until the
point where it could be determined either to be contained properly, or it it's
lethality and infection rate were considered low enough to not be a potential
international risk.

Furthermore, I think China should get some very severe sanctions from the
international community for covering up the existence and how wide-spread the
virus was.

~~~
empath75
China is a massive country with a billion people in it. You can’t just shut it
down.

~~~
AllegedAlec
Why not? Don't allow ships coming from China to enter the harbour, don't allow
planes coming from China, either directly or indirectly, to land at your
airports, and for most countries outside of the China region of Asia that
would already create a quite effective containment.

