
Minimum unit pricing may have helped reduce alcohol-related deaths in Glasgow - DanBC
https://www.scotsman.com/health/scotland-s-minimum-unit-pricing-thought-to-be-a-factor-in-the-decline-of-glasgow-drinking-deaths-1-5007185
======
ApolloFortyNine
Japan is sitting at .25 deaths per 100k without any such law. [1]

Sounds like this is a case of "law of small numbers." The deaths dropped by 40
in a single year in a single city? 40 people? Does that not see drastically
small to use to back something like this up?

I only thought of Japan because they sell alcohol (beer and sake) in vending
machines there. Doesn't really get much easier to buy than that. And alcohol
is popular there, it's not as if it's a country with prohibition.

[1] [https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-
death/alcohol/b...](https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-
death/alcohol/by-country/)

~~~
VangelicSurgeon
I haven’t seen alcohol vending machines here in Tokyo in many years, however
you are correct that alcohol is cheap and easily available. You can buy a
330ml can of 9% alcohol drink called Strong Zero at the supermarket for close
to ¥100. Many restaurants offer ‘all you can drink’ specials for as little as
¥1200 for two hours.

I’m actually surprised that alcohol related deaths are so low.

~~~
sushid
Just travelled to Osaka and I can confirm They have vending machine with
alcohol here although I literally only found one so far in my trip.

------
ck425
Is it not a bit soon to be drawing conclusions? Also there are so many other
factors involved. I'm a scotsman and I'm personally not a fan of this law, nor
the 10am-10pm licensing laws. They're blunt instruments that fail to tackle
the root causes. I'm not saying they don't work or that they're not relatively
easy to implement but I wouldn't be surprised if we soon see an increase in
deaths from other drugs.

~~~
Someone1234
How should they tackle the "root cause?" It is fine to criticize the existing
solutions, but this isn't offering a counter proposal that could be used when
they're scrapped (and until this proposal exists and comes on-tap, they're
better than nothing).

~~~
ck425
The root causes vary, but include mental health issues and poverty in general.
We should instead focus on those issues more.

The main alcohol related root cause is the culture of binge drinking. The way
to tackle that is to create and encourage a culture of moderate drinking.
Change licensing laws to make it easy for families to go to pubs for example.

~~~
tempguy9999
> binge drinking. The way to tackle that is to create and encourage a culture
> of moderate drinking

In _scotland_?? Drinking culture is tied in to masculinity at least in the UK
midlands ('beer or queer' \- that kind of shit though thankfully fadin) and
I'll bet it's the same in scotland. And you've got an entire drug industry,
the drinks industry, working hard to get people to abuse, NOT use, to ABUSE to
excess, their product.

It's a deep problem with very difficult solutions. Externalised costs of
capitalism, shitty lives, poverty, people who can't see a way out and if
offered won't take it...

~~~
ck425
From what I've seen the beer is manly culture is going away. There's also a
lot more awareness of drinking levels and sobriety. It's far easier and more
socially acceptable to drink moderately now. These changes are mostly driven
by healthy living concerns.

Educating people about lifestyle is proving effective.

------
bodyfour
On the other hand, maybe some are moving on to harder stuff?
[https://www.economist.com/britain/2019/07/18/scotland-
overta...](https://www.economist.com/britain/2019/07/18/scotland-overtakes-
america-as-the-worlds-drug-overdose-capital)

~~~
krilly
That's been the experience among my circle of friends (cash strapped
students). Why spend a fortune on beer when you can get a strong pill for a
fiver?

~~~
nmeofthestate
Minimum unit pricing doesn't really affect beer - certainly not in a way that
makes it cost a "fortune". It makes cans cost a few pence more than ones that
you could get on a special offer in England. And people have been taking pills
forever - it's not something people have started resorting to now they have to
pay fifty pence more to get pissed on lager.

~~~
twic
To put some numbers on this, Stella Artois is 4.8%, so a 568 ml can contains
27.264 ml of alcohol, or 2.7264 units. A minimum price of 50p a unit
establishes a minimum price of £1.3632 per can, or £5.4528 per four-pack.
Tesco currently sells four-packs in England for £5.50:

[https://www.tesco.com/groceries/en-
GB/products/250317180](https://www.tesco.com/groceries/en-
GB/products/250317180)

~~~
throwaway13249
Nearly all grocers in England (Asda, Tesco, Sainsburys, Morrions) will have a
weekly offer on crates, you can nearly always find 20 crates of stella for 20
quid (20x400mlx2). I guess these aren't available in Scotland? You only really
pay over a fiver a four pack when you're in a rush at the co-op or tesco
express, if you're in the big store you'll change 4 stella to four kroneberg
for 3.29 or whatever similar, on mainstream lagers anyway

~~~
twic
True. I suppose pound-a-tin Polish beers from the corner shop would go away
too.

------
RichardHeart
"Minimum unit pricing" Just means making alcohol more expensive. Headline from
6-19-2019 "Alcohol sales in Scotland hit 25 year low after minimum unit
pricing introduced." Here's their governments website:
[https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Health/Services/Alcohol/minimum...](https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Health/Services/Alcohol/minimum-
pricing)

------
ChrisSD
Legalising safer drugs would also be an option.

~~~
Scoundreller
You got that right. Alcohol is a straight up dirty drug that’s only around
because it was simple to make and a part of Roman culture.

~~~
epicureanideal
I wonder if there's a startup (or multiple) here? If you take GABA supplements
it has some minor version of the affect of alcohol, and if I remember
correctly alcohol is a GABA inhibitor. Is there a way to engineer a better,
safer, equally or more enjoyable alcohol, maybe with less judgement
impairment?

~~~
buttcoinslol
This is what benzodiazepines are[0] and they are not safer than alcohol[1][2].
Alcohol and benzodiazepines are cross-tolerant with each other[3].

[0]
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/6147796](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/6147796)

[1]
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19465812](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19465812)

[2]
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4816010/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4816010/)

[3]
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2712270/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2712270/)

~~~
Scoundreller
You could also just make something fun that doesn’t work like alcohol or
benzos.

------
defertoreptar
> Glasgow has had a 21.5 per cent reduction in alcohol-related deaths from
> 2017 to 2018 - down from 186 to 146.

They really should be tracking all alcohol and drug-related deaths instead of
pretending that we live in a world free of negative externalities.

~~~
DanBC
Why do you think they're not tracking drug related deaths?

[https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-
data/statistics...](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-
data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/deaths/drug-related-deaths-
in-scotland)

~~~
magashna
Then they should note that drug related deaths went up by 27% from 2017-18

[https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/drug-
related...](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/drug-related-
deaths/2018/drug-related-deaths-18-pub.pdf)

~~~
mannykannot
Whatever figures you want shown, aso show what they are doing in areas that
have not had a comparable policy change.

------
choeger
Eli5 how does minimum unit pricing work exactly?

~~~
throwaway66920
Presumably you can’t go below a certain price per liter

~~~
recursion
Basically. There is a minimum price set of 0.50 per unit. This means a bottle
of whisky, 70cl at 37.5% ABV cannot retail for less than £14 whereas
previously these would be on promotion sometimes at £11/£12/£13.

By setting it per unit instead of quantity of drink the government targets
super strength cheap cider etc that were linked to lots of anti-social
behaviour and crime.

~~~
tomjen3
How about an offer of 15 with a 3 pound non-transferable (therefore worthless)
store credit?

------
brianmcc
Apologies for some domestic political comment on HN - but surely the Scotsman
isn't about to give the terrible SNP credit for something?!

Was there not a more negative spin they could've used, e.g. "deaths fall by
smaller percent than promised/hoped"?

I note this policy is being mooted UK wide - good. Overuse - and outright
abuse - of alcohol is so prevalent and "normal" in the UK it's shocking.

Impact to prices in bars and supermarkets has been totally negligible to
anyone enjoying e.g. a pretty cheap £6 bottle of wine or four-beers-for-£5
bundles. It's the supercheap £3 for 2L of strong cider this policy's targeted
at and it looks like it might be helping.

~~~
bArray
> I note this policy is being mooted UK wide - good.

To moot is to argue, but then your next statement seems to suggest you want
the policy to be rolled out across the UK? Are you for or against rolling this
policy out across the UK?

I currently live in New Zealand where alcohol is relatively expensive and it
has a massive drinking problem for young persons. When I go back to the UK,
the problem is about the same, but the young people aren't going broke buying
alcohol. I don't think it works. Increasing the price of Tobacco didn't do
much to stop smoking, but vaping and preventing smoking in public areas did.
Changing social attitudes to smoking is fundamentally what reduced it.

Personally, I think it's better to use the carrot and not the stick. It
shouldn't be the responsibility of the state to raise people's children
correctly.

I think this works in my experience. As a child, my parents would let me have
a small drink with a meal. As I grew up I never felt the need to drink to
excess, I knew how alcohol worked. My sibling had the same experience and
doesn't drink. My younger sibling still, was prevented from drinking anything
and then went crazy when they legally could.

~~~
otabdeveloper4
> Increasing the price of Tobacco didn't do much to stop smoking

This is factually false.

~~~
bryanlarsen
IIRC, it depends on your study period. Increasing the price of tobacco has
been found to have diminishing effects. It was very effective when they first
started doing it, but now the price is so high in some countries that price-
sensitive smokers have already stopped and further increases do little.

------
reportgunner
"may have" so it really hasn't ?

How do you read the title ?

 _Glasgow has had a 21.5 per cent reduction in alcohol-related deaths from
2017 to 2018 - down from 186 to 146_

Yep.

~~~
epicureanideal
One year with numbers that small doesn't prove it yet though. Maybe they're
just exited about the possibility of another referendum on Scottish
independence. Who knows, with this data.

------
hidiegomariani
“May have”

------
hogFeast
England doesn't have this policy. The rate of alcohol-related deaths is half
of that in Scotland. And alcohol is only one issue among many. Increasing the
cost of alcohol may reduce the number of alcohol-related deaths but what is
actually doing for people who need help? Either they have less money or they
go somewhere else.

The meta of this policy is kind of interesting too. This kind of price
tinkering, control freakery is very New Labour (and probably Conservatives now
too, although to a lesser extent). It feels sophisticated, and it is usually
accompanied by research from very serious civil servants who model the impact
down to the decimal point.

The problem is that these policies always has unintended consequences, you use
your blunt instrument to achieve your primary aim...but then other stuff
happens. I get that we need to give economists jobs...but can't they just do
it somewhere else?

Rather than tinkering with prices, why not focus on exactly why these people
are making these choices? The govt has had long enough. And, from what I have
read, NHS Scotland just whine about poverty (and now austerity the bogeyman de
jour). We have known for years (over a decade iirc) that these effects still
exist after income (rich people in Scotland die faster than in England too).
Maybe that is a link worth examining: doctors playing politics and patients
with poor life expectancy? Ineffective policy-makers (there is little evidence
that the govt are particularly competent in anything other than railing
against "Westminster")? Ineffective managers in the NHS?

~~~
clucas
Serious question: what if the answer to "why these people are making these
choices" turns out to be "culture"? As in, this is the way lots of big
Scottish people have behaved in front of lots of little Scottish people for
generations, and absent any opprobrium from the rest of society (which is
something this law provides, in addition to its purely economic effect), it
will continue that way for the foreseeable?

At that point would it be reasonable for Scotland, as a society, to decide to
put its thumb in the scale through a measure like the one discussed in the
article to try to reduce the harm?

Note: I've never been to Scotland, don't know any Scottish people, and
certainly don't have my finger on the beating pulse of Scottish culture, so
the above is purely a hypothetical! I'm just always curious to see how people
who emphasize the economic causes of problems think about possible non-
economic factors.

~~~
pjc50
Culture, and also despair. Perhaps similar to the US opiate crisis.

There are a lot of people in the UK who drink "too much", and a general
distribution of people genetically predisposed to addiction. To drink yourself
to death requires something more, usually falling off the edge of society.
People who feel economically and socially unwanted, growing up in a "hard"
culture.

Glasgow and Dundee in particular were cities of the Empire. When that came to
an end in 1950 onwards there was a huge spike in unemployment, and a lot of
the traditional heavy industries gradually left. This left a huge scar across
both the physical infrastructure of Scotland (run down housing) and its
culture. _Trainspotting_ isn't exactly a documentary but it's a culturally
appropriate portrait of how things were.

This is gradually changing as the country acquires 21st century industries
(satellites, biosciences, video games, banking), but that on its own doesn't
do a lot for the old drunks.

~~~
alistairSH
Just a note... Trainspotting was set mostly in Edinburgh, not Glasgow. Glasgow
is worse off - it's a larger city that historically had a larger reliance on
industry.

Rough stats... Glawgow's life expectancy is one of the lowest in the UK and
lower than Edinburgh by 2+ years for both men and women. Its employment rate
is nearly 10% lower than Edinburgh.

For Americans: comparing Glasgow to Edinburgh is a bit like Baltimore vs
Washington DC. Not a perfect comparison, but close enough to get the general
idea.

