
Emissions of banned, ozone-depleting chemical CFC-11 have climbed 25% since 2012 - ytNumbers
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/05/16/someone-somewhere-is-making-a-banned-chemical-that-destroys-the-ozone-layer-scientists-suspect/
======
nimbius
As an engine mechanic, Hanlons Razor comes to mind.

We once had a "thief" in our garage who was stealing expensive welding gasses
and getting away with it. Sometimes she would steal whole tanks, other times
she would siphon tanks until they were almost dry. We took to naming her
Shirley.

After about a month we caught the culprits. The tank theft was due to a
manager in another location who was greedily stealing our gas bottles without
filing the correct paperwork, to use at his location. The other thief was a
gas safety relief system that measures tank temperature and pressure, and
preemptively vents the contents if theres an irregularity. One of its 2 post
sensors had died and the alarm for it was just being silenced by our cleaning
crew.

~~~
Clubber
That's the most insidious thing about theft. Your mind starts blaming the
innocent people you know (friends or colleagues) and you convince yourself
someone is doing it and start treating them differently.

I have to constantly remind myself that it's probably lost or I misplaced it
or something.

------
tpeo
The overall, just-worrying-factor of this aside, I think it's rather
surprising that _" someone, somewhere"_ is putting up CFC-11 in the atmosphere
and somehow the only way people got a hold of this was by looking at the ozone
layer. If that's indeed the case, that would be a reminder that though there's
a lot of information about a lot of stuff nowadays, much of what matters to us
can still be going on on completely in the dark.

EDIT: Alternatively, and more innocently, this could be due to the end of the
life-cycle of several appliances in Second/Third World countries -- or maybe
even First World (do you know anyone with an aging fridge?). While a lot of
people might have done away with their old fridges a long while ago, those
that didn't might be seeing them all fail nearly at the same time.

~~~
cptskippy
> Alternatively, and more innocently, this could be due to the end of the
> life-cycle of several appliances in Second/Third World countries -- or maybe
> even First World (do you know anyone with an aging fridge?).

I don't think this can be overstated. True or not, the common belief held by
most people in the US is that older Freon based systems are better than modern
systems. This is due in part to the high cost and lower efficiency of those
systems when they started showing up in the early 90s. As such many people
chose to hold on to their older systems and maintain them.

The last two houses I have owned each had HVAC systems dating back to the 70s
and early 80s and each had slow leaks that required refilling each year. The
cost to refill a system has steadily increased but it is still under $500.

Modern chillers are not compatible with older furnaces so replacing your AC
unit requires replacing your entire HVAC system. Prices start at around $4000
and many homes in the United States are multi system. We were quoted
$12000-18000 to replace the two systems in our home last year.

Given the cost disparity between maintaining a 40 year old system and
replacing it, what do you think most people would choose?

~~~
dsfyu404ed
Older Freon based systems are much less picky about system condition than
systems with newer refrigerant and in practice that makes them much more
reliable because you can just top them up and keep going. They're also much
more easily user serviceable so anyone doing their own service just keep
repairing them.

------
tom_
Now I know I'm old, because the headline refers to CFCs by symptom than by
name...

(Wikipedia article about the guy behind them, no one-trick pony:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Midgley_Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Midgley_Jr.))

~~~
CompelTechnic
>In 1940, at the age of 51, Midgley contracted poliomyelitis, which left him
severely disabled. This led him to devise an elaborate system of strings and
pulleys to help others lift him from bed. This was the eventual cause of his
own death when he was entangled in the ropes of this device and died of
strangulation at the age of 55

Wow.

~~~
rangersanger
Environmental historian J. R. McNeill opined that Midgley “had more impact on
the atmosphere than any other single organism in Earth’s history”,[19] and
Bill Bryson remarked that Midgley possessed “an instinct for the regrettable
that was almost uncanny”.[20]

------
bb101
China? Pertinent parallels with this part of Chai Jing's censored talk "Under
the Dome"[1] (worth watching the whole thing actually).

[1]
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6X2uwlQGQM&t=42m23s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6X2uwlQGQM&t=42m23s)

------
DangerousPie
Link to paper:
[https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0106-2](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0106-2)

------
new299
Does anyone have an idea of how difficult it would be to create a sensor
network to monitor for CFCs?

What would the PPM at source be? Quick googling suggests that there are
sensors that can detect down to 1000PPM [1], but I'd guess you'd need
something substantially lower than that.

[1] [https://docs-apac.rs-
online.com/webdocs/15a6/0900766b815a66d...](https://docs-apac.rs-
online.com/webdocs/15a6/0900766b815a66db.pdf)

~~~
sp332
Around 200 parts per trillion in the atmosphere in general.
[https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/05/it-seems-someone-
is-...](https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/05/it-seems-someone-is-producing-
a-banned-ozone-depleting-chemical-again/) At the source it might be high
enough.

------
rdtsc
> also because alternatives exist, making it hard to imagine what the market
> for CFC-11 today would be.

Well I've heard of someone who was stockpiling and was planning to sell banned
Freon. That was years ago. There is a black market for it because equipment
that uses it doesn't simply work on newer approved stuff. If I randomly heard
about it, chances are there are more insantces of it. And if there is demand
someone probably spun up a factory to make it.

~~~
NedIsakoff
CFC-11 is cheaper then alternatives. If I'm a shady factory owner making cheap
fridges for shady countries, who is gonna complain?

~~~
evek
Shady countries? Those are people and regular families...

~~~
SanityIsRare
I live in one of those "shady" countries and I wish that I was never born.

~~~
kbutler
Please get help to realize your value and the opportunities you have to
contribute positively to your area and the world. You can be a force for good
if you choose.

This assumes you're not just trolling, but actually, it applies if you are
trolling as well.

------
donttrack
How big a factory would you need to do this? I mean that sounds like some
pretty low hanging fruit right there for the evil scientists out there, who
wants to destroy human kind.

~~~
IshKebab
Not many people really want to destroy all human kind including themselves.

------
FrozenVoid
Related: Shrinking Ozone layer: [https://qz.com/1199846/earths-ozone-layer-is-
still-shrinking...](https://qz.com/1199846/earths-ozone-layer-is-still-
shrinking-and-scientists-dont-know-why/) dichloromethane:
[https://www.earth.com/news/dangerous-threat-ozone-
layer/](https://www.earth.com/news/dangerous-threat-ozone-layer/)

------
PerilousD
Back of the envelope calc says this is about the weight of say a dozen
passenger cars or say 1 passenger car (weight) per month over a year? Doesn't
sound like a major industrial operation to me and how many tons are STILL out
there in old air conditioners and refrigerators that could be leaking?

~~~
caf
You're out by a factor of 1000.

~~~
PerilousD
Yeah you're right - sorry about that - need to buy a much bigger slide rule
:-)

------
epx
China, obviously.

------
titzer
Welcome to the long tail of hyper-optimizing Capitalism and the tragedy of the
commons. If someone, somewhere, perceives an economic advantage in producing
something banned or destroying something hard to replace, they will try it.
Thinking through not only the regulatory regime but enforcement protocols
necessary to maintain 100% bans on some activities, we're in for a mess in the
long haul.

~~~
krona
What in particular has the production of CFC gas got to do with capitalism?

In the 1980's, the Soviet Union had an estimated growth-rate of CFC production
at 18% annually (estimated because they couldn't be bothered to measure it
themselves accurately) which by 1990 would've accounted for 50% of global CFC
production.

~~~
titzer
Maybe I am using capitalism in too broad a sense: I meant to express that if
the use of CFC gives one competitor an advantage over another, they may go
right ahead and do it, regardless of the consequences. Capitalism constantly
prides itself on how great competition is, but competition actually makes this
problem worse, not better.

~~~
pc86
If by "too broad a sense" you mean "incorrectly," then sure.

~~~
titzer
"An economic and political system in which a country's trade and industry are
controlled by private owners for profit, rather than by the state."

\--Oxford

Did you have a different definition in mind?

------
Fjolsvith
Then someone, somewhere needs to make ozone.

~~~
youngbullind
And get it up to the ozone layer, because at ground level it's a pollutant
which causes lung damage.

~~~
cptskippy
Falcon 9s?

------
towndrunk
What about rockets like SpaceX etc. and volcano's erupting like in Hawaii?
What effect do those have on the ozone?

~~~
jimmy1
What does that have to do with a nation violating an international accord to
stop producing CFC emissions?

~~~
towndrunk
I was actually just curious.

~~~
jimmy1
My apologies!

------
caf
I've got a shiny dollar that says they're in the northern hemisphere.

~~~
ethor
There seem to be some trails pointing towards SE asia. From the article:

”The scientists don’t know exactly who, or where, that person would be. A U.S.
observatory in Hawaii found CFC-11 mixed in with other gases that were
characteristic of a source coming from somewhere in eastern Asia, but
scientists could not narrow the area down any further”

------
matte_black
If this is true and we found the place where it was being produced, could we
be justified in destroying the facility by missile strike in order to save the
world?

~~~
jessaustin
How about just having police visit? They're more likely to apprehend the
owners of the facility (you know, the actual culprits) and to preserve
evidence of exactly what has occurred. Also in many nations they are less
likely than a "missile strike" to kill everyone present.

~~~
matte_black
Sure, but what if the corruption goes very high up, and the police do nothing?
Or it’s an uncooperative rogue state?

Do we just let the ozone burn?

~~~
jessaustin
Sometimes it's quite difficult to remind oneself that those with inexplicably
martial attitudes are more likely to be deluded victims of the war media than
actual employees of the military-industrial complex.

------
_bxg1
Everybody's saying China, and, well, maybe. But what about North Korea?
Despite China having a reputation for shady business practices, the Chinese
government at least often gives the environment a higher priority than the US
does. Also, North Korea probably has tons of outdated hardware, I would guess,
and little respect for the outside world.

God help us if it is North Korea. Things are delicate enough as it is, with
the peace treaty and the nuclear situation.

~~~
Synaesthesia
Heck it could be South Africa - it has a larger economy and population than NK
AFAIK. (Or at least equal economy)

My father here in SA had a tank of CFC gas when he was an air conditioner
repairman.

~~~
_bxg1
The data suggested southeast Asia

------
DiabloD3
Ozone production is tied to solar activity disproportionately, and the 11 year
cycle between the solar maximum and the solar minimum effect ozone
measurements. We are currently at solar minimum, and we are also possibly
headed into a grand solar minimum (an extended period of low solar activity).

Zaelke also does not seem to have published a paper on his findings, and all
of his quotes in this article are largely political-oriented fluff. The latest
thing I can find with anything that has his name on it is from 2009, and only
discusses the Montreal Protocol in relation to lowering CO2 emissions.

So, the article just tells us CFC-11 detectors detected something (which may
or may not be CFC-11), but cannot tell us how much, where, or how it effected
climate activity during a time of natural low ozone production.

Also, this does not discuss if this was _production_ , or just older
appliances breaking down or being taken apart for recycling improperly.
Without a paper, we cannot tell how they accounted for this.

~~~
titzer
> how it effected climate activity during a time of natural low ozone
> production.

The article I read didn't discuss anything about the effect on the climate.
AFAIK the primary concern isn't about direct effects on climate, but the loss
of the ozone layer lets through vastly more UV light, which has a sterilizing
effect on the oceans and is extremely harmful to human health. The fact that
this did not have a big economic impact (the way action on climate change
could) also means that it's been less controversial to actually do something
about it.

~~~
rhodrid
Crops don't like it much either. Same with trees.

------
RobertRoberts
Can someone summarize how CFCs achieve the result of depleting the ozone
layer?

When I was a kid someone pointed out that CFCs were quite heavy and it was not
possible to make it up to the ozone layer. Also, my kid logic considered the
science experiment where the teacher showed us a basketball with a light
shining through a peg-board onto. At the polls the circles were elongated,
thus demonstrating how less light (therefore less radiation) hits the poles.

The fact that the hole in the ozone layer is only at the poles, and according
Wikipedia [0], the ozone layer absorbs "97 to 99 percent of the Sun's medium-
frequency ultraviolet light" [0]. And that I have never heard of any
prevailing wind patterns [1] that would send _all_ of the CFCs in the world to
one or two locations, means I have questions...

Two facts seem to make me think there's a flaw in blaming CFCs for the ozone
hole.

1) It may simply be a naturally occurring phenomenon because there simply is
less ultra violet radiation there. (ie, ozone may exist in part because of
ultraviolet radiation, not in spite of it)

2) If CFCs are causing the hole, then shouldn't there be holes right above the
factories that make the stuff? (or some similar localized affect first before
a distant one?)

Another science experiment from 7th grade, our teacher sprayed a scented mist
in the corner of the room. And described the process that eventually (because
of entropy) the mist would disperse evenly throughout the room. Claiming a gas
would collect in one spot is to claim that the scented mist would disperse and
then regather, which is a similar claim to the CFCs. Sure pollution air can
gather, but it's in valleys, not the sky.

Consider all the pollution from really polluted cities and factories all over
the world, I've never once heard a distant affect claimed from some of these
cesspools, yet, somehow CFCs pollute unlike any other gas/chemical known to
man?

I don't believe in magic, so there has to be an experiment done to show how
CFCs get to the south pole and fly straight up thousands of feet, and then,
and only then, do they react with the ozone... something is amiss.

[0]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_layer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_layer)

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prevailing_winds](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prevailing_winds)

~~~
caf
CFCs don't concentrate at the poles.

The reason they have the strongest effect there, and not locally where they're
produced or globally in the stratosphere, is because the stratosphere is very
dry and only in the extreme cold of a polar winter can stratospheric clouds
form. The particles in these clouds catalyse the reactions that allow a each
free chlorine molecule to destroy many ozone molecules.

That's also why the hole is worse in the Antarctic. It is colder and has more
polar stratospheric clouds.

~~~
RobertRoberts
That seems like a valid explanation for the "start" of a hole if there was a
continuous stream of _only_ CFCs and chlorine.

Doesn't the ozone gas itself get blown around in the wind also? Wouldn't this
mean that ozone would eventually fill the hole back up unless there was a
steady stream of CFCs/chlorine to that one spot?

~~~
brorfred
CFCs effectively function as a catalyzer and aren't consumed by the process,
hence the hole is more of a Ozone sink. Wikipedia explains the effect of
large-scale transport in the stratosphere well:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_layer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_layer)

