
New COVID-19 cases reported across Japan - fspeech
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/19/national/diamond-princess-coronavirus/#.XkwTijWIZTs
======
oefrha
WHO daily sitreps provide very clear stats on transmission outside China. The
latest one for Feb 17: [https://www.who.int/docs/default-
source/coronaviruse/situati...](https://www.who.int/docs/default-
source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200217-sitrep-28-covid-19.pdf)

Japan (excluding the cruise ship): 59 confirmed cases (6 new), 26 cases with
travel history to China, 33 cases (6 new) without (what they call “with
possible or confirmed transmission outside China”).

~~~
Insanity
Semi-related, but the map surprised me. In my euro-centric world most maps I
see have Europe at the center with the US at the left. Took me a second to
realize the US was actually on there. :)

~~~
hef19898
Kind of like looking at British D-Day maps. They show France at the top, so
upside down! But they are driving on the wrong side of the road, so...

~~~
capableweb
You have any examples of that? Feels like it could be a urban legend and
searching for "British D-Day maps" on Google Images show all the maps with
France being below UK.

~~~
hef19898
Not at hand, but way back the day I saw some in old books covering D-Day. My
uncle had one lying around where it was shown this way, no idea what the title
was. But I remember it, I always turned it upside down to understand the map
and then back again to read the text.

Not sure if that was something that was down after the war or already during
d-day, so.

------
xvilka
If you are not a scientist this doesn't mean you can't help fighting this
particular or any other infectious and non-infectious disease. It is easy -
just help to improve the tools that scientists and laboratories use. For
example, something like BioJulia[1][2] and BioPython[3][4] - both have some
issues[5][6] that need help with or accepting donations[7]. Or R packages,
like survival[8]. There are many other tools that are used, feel free to list
them in the comments.

[1] [https://biojulia.net/](https://biojulia.net/)

[2] [https://github.com/BioJulia](https://github.com/BioJulia)

[3] [https://biopython.org/](https://biopython.org/)

[4] [https://github.com/biopython/](https://github.com/biopython/)

[5]
[https://github.com/BioJulia/BioSequences.jl/issues](https://github.com/BioJulia/BioSequences.jl/issues)

[6]
[https://github.com/biopython/biopython/issues?q=label%3A%22h...](https://github.com/biopython/biopython/issues?q=label%3A%22help+wanted%22+is%3Aissue+is%3Aopen)

[7]
[https://opencollective.com/biojulia#backer](https://opencollective.com/biojulia#backer)

[8]
[https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/survival/index.html](https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/survival/index.html)

~~~
vishbar
Realistically, how well will someone with a nonspecialist knowledge of biology
be able to contribute to these projects?

That statement's not intended to pass judgement; I'd really like to know as
it'd be great to contribute to a good cause.

~~~
searine
A lot of bioinformatics specialists aren't talented programmers, they are
biologists who know how to program as a means to an end.

As a computer scientist you can add a lot of value by contributing to
optimization and ease of use.

~~~
downerending
Not to mention correctness, which is often sorely lacking.

------
ohazi
> So far, at least 616 people have tested positive for the virus in Japan,
> including 542 from the ship and eight other cases across the nation on
> Tuesday.

So basically the vast majority of Japan's cases are due to the colossal
mismanagement of the quarantine on the ship.

A cruise ship is not an appropriate location for a quarantine -- it's a 3000
person cesspool. Many of the 500-odd passengers and crew who are now sick
would not have been infected if everyone had been immediately sent to their
home countries for quarantine on return, instead of being forced to wallow in
improperly isolated rooms on the ship.

Also, you can't just quarantine for two weeks, you need to have a two week
interval _without any new infections_. The two week counter should have been
resetting every day that the "new infection count" wasn't zero.

Many of the passengers who tested negative are already infected, but they're
going to send them home unencumbered anyway. This number is 50 times higher
than it needed to be, and will cause this pandemic to fucking explode. I hope
somebody goes to jail for this.

~~~
skrebbel
> I hope somebody goes to jail for this.

For incompetence?

~~~
SkyBelow
Maliciousness is not an inherent element of a crime. For example, many people
believe themselves perfectly safe drunk drivers when they drive home, but
their incompetence combined with taking actions that put others at risk result
in penalties.

If you do not punish incompetence when lives are on the line, then you should
expect more deaths due to incompetence. We send people to prison for far less
than this.

~~~
Seenso
> If you do not punish incompetence when lives are on the line, then you
> should expect more deaths due to incompetence. We send people to prison for
> far less than this.

The difference here (vs drunk driving) is the situation that led to this
particular kind of incompetence is unlikely to be repeated. The situation also
involved significant unknowns and gaps in basic understanding of the danger.

IMHO, it would be wrong to put anyone in jail for the handling of the cruise
ship quarantine. That would be unnecessarily punitive. Might as well just kill
a literal scapegoat. This seems like more a situation for a fault-free
retrospective aimed at improving procedures and training for future epidemics.

~~~
potiuper
Cruise ships are notorious for norovirus transmission. They are not built for
a quarantine. Whomever made the decision should be stripped of their
credentials along with jail time, which is what the passengers had to go
through as is, in order to make an example of what should happen to anyone in
authority making such an ignorant, if not publicly malicious, decision in the
future.

------
arbuge
It appears to be spreading in the community now, which makes me think stopping
a pandemic at this point will be very hard. One can only wonder what happens
when it reaches places with much weaker health infrastructure, such as Africa
and also many parts of India.

This seems to me like an accurate assessment of the situation:
[https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/02/harvard-
exper...](https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/02/harvard-expert-says-
coronavirus-likely-just-gathering-steam/)

~~~
ipnon
Let alone the United States, a country in which people delay healthcare until
the latest possible moment to avoid the costs. This strategy is advantageous
to the individual but disadvantageous to the group. The individual may survive
without treatment, but without quarantine they proceed to infect those around
them. Those around them may be in similar financial conditions.

~~~
Notorious_BLT
The United States has already been handling the few cases it has pretty
aggressively, and following up with anyone who might have come into contact
with each person. This feels like you're just jumping on the opportunity to
say "US healthcare is bad, guys", which doesn't really make sense when
comparing our handling of an outbreak (in which the CDC will mobilize and
largely bypass the issues in our healthcare system to mitigate disaster) to
India and Africa not having anywhere near the infrastructure to handle this.

People are still dying of swine flu in India, a decade later. There's really
no comparison, no matter how much you may dislike the US healthcare situation

~~~
dboreham
Infected people in the US so far were wealthy (traveling back from China) and
so didn't have the cost concerns mentioned above.

~~~
partiallypro
You don't have to be wealthy to have traveled on a cruise ship. The US is also
pretty well organized, and generally very transparent about this sort of
thing. While China is...not. The US, on a relative basis is also a much
cleaner and sanitary country than China.

~~~
CodeMage
Replace "wealthy" with "not poor" and the grandparent's point stands.

~~~
wtallis
Or even just interpret "wealthy" in a global context instead of local.

------
DyslexicAtheist
_> Those who test negative will be allowed to leave between Wednesday and
Friday, while those who test positive will be hospitalized. The same measures
will apply to crew members. Most of the passengers to be released on Wednesday
will be Japanese, with priority being given to the elderly._

How is this enforced? Do they shepherd the infected straight into quarantine
after the test, or is it more of a "we trust that you go there now" kind of a
situation?

And how is that enforced on those that don't have health insurance - is covid
automatically covered?

I wonder (not so much about Japan, where things tend to go down mostly
orderly) about other countries with poor healthcare. How is it "managed" in
areas where people are already misinformed and/or maybe who rather take the
risk (to themselves and others) of sitting it out, because they fear costs or
other drawbacks (losing your job etc).

~~~
aikinai
Everyone in Japan is covered. Even if they find out you weren’t paying, you
just owe the back payments for the public option but they never consider your
coverage lapsed.

~~~
Aeolun
Still need to have an insurance card from city hall though. You are not
‘automatically’ covered.

~~~
aikinai
Just looked it up and yeah, you’re right; it is possible to be totally
uninsured. Fortunately, even worst case you’d only pay 3 times the insured
cost and be able to deduct from taxes, so it’d still be cheaper than somewhere
like the US.

~~~
Aeolun
To some extend, you’d be able to sign up at city hall and still get a discount
regardless of whether you’ve paid the premium (which would be like 6000 yen
per year if you have no income).

I think city hall would come after you after about a year or so, and then you
could call them and set up a deferred payment plan (or get the cost completely
rescinded maybe).

------
christkv
Those Tokyo cases. I hope they are connected to existing known cases or its
gone communal.

~~~
mazsa
Gone communal: "Authorities also confirmed two more cases: a doctor in his 50s
who works at a hospital in western Japan and a man in his 20s who lives in
Chiba, near Tokyo. None had a record of travelling abroad in recent weeks or
contacts with Chinese nationals – a possible sign that the virus is spreading
inside the country." [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/japan-
reports-...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/japan-reports-
first-coronavirus-death-as-44-more-cases-confirmed-aboard-cruise-ship)

~~~
sitkack
The virus can spread between asymptomatic hosts for as long as 8 days before
showing signs of infection.

~~~
bart_spoon
Most of those claims have been walked back, as far as I know. There were
initial reports that the virus can be spread asymptomatically, but since then
there has been more skepticism about the data around those claims. Right now I
don't think anyone knows for sure if the virus can be spread in asymptomatic
hosts or not.

~~~
sitkack
Was the German claim walked back? What about the folks in Japan right now?

Doubt is good, but asymmetric doubt is foolish.

~~~
Fomite
The German claim was walked back - the original authors didn't interview the
actual person they were claiming were asymptomatic.

------
christkv
I really hope this can make it to market quickly as it would make it easier to
protect ourselves.
[https://www.nature.com/articles/srep39956](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep39956)

------
cpascal
I think its more likely than not that COVID-19 will progress into a global
pandemic. I don't think its a bad or rash idea to begin preparing to self-
isolate/quarantine before panic-buying of supplies begins. Having a stock of
non-perishable food, medication, masks, and disinfectants will definitely make
things easier if COVID-19 can not be contained.

~~~
jerf
There's two elements of prep work that anybody can and should do: 1. The cheap
stuff that you may never use, but if you don't, isn't that big a deal: First
aid kits, a supply of disinfectant, masks if it isn't already too late for
that, etc. 2. Stuff you're going to buy anyhow, like canned food you already
use, stuff you can easily freeze in advance without it being too big a deal,
etc., that, again, you would have used anyhow. This is just pulling purchases
forward rather than spending new money.

After all, just because COVID-19 may in fact end up contained doesn't mean
you're not going to be in a serious earthquake next week or something. Having
this stuff widely distributed greatly increases the resiliency of society
against all sorts of issues, means you'll be one less person draining valuable
resources in case of some disaster, etc. Being at least a bit prepped is the
_socially responsible_ thing to do.

Also, don't forget some of the specialized things for an extended in-home
stay, which a lot of prep lists don't necessarily focus on (as a lot of them
are assuming the problem is that you don't have a home anymore): Toilet paper,
paper towels, salt & spices, etc. Anything you don't want to have to suddenly
run out and get.

~~~
allovernow
>The cheap stuff that you may never use, but if you don't, isn't that big a
deal

Not a bad idea to stock up on rice and beans. The proteins in rice and beans
are individually to incomplete but together are sufficient for long term
survival, and they're cheap and last for years if kept in a cool damp pantry.
On a developer's salary you really don't have an excuse not to spend a couple
hundred dollars on months worth of emergency food that will keep you (and
possibly your community) prepared for years.

Don't forget that such preparations are for any unforseeable future event.
It's just good to do if you have the space and cash.

~~~
allovernow
Can't edit now but it should read "cool, dry pantry", not damp.

------
senordevnyc
Is it just me or do COVID-19 stories get buried here much faster than their
upvotes would justify? Flagging?

------
manojlds
At this rate the Tokyo olympics might be cancelled.

~~~
mongol
Will the entire 2020 olympics be cancelled in that case? Or would it be moved
or postponed?

~~~
rtkwe
It's too late to move it. The run up to hosting an Olympics lasts years and
even recent hosts like Rio (2016) would have to do a lot of work to refresh
facilities. [0]

[0] As soon as a year after they were already just sitting empty and falling
into disrepair.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMgPEz29abI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMgPEz29abI)

~~~
jerf
If it gets serious enough for Japan to cancel, nobody else is going to be able
to host it either. It's supposed to be a worldwide competition, there's no
point having it if half the world can't attend and the other half really,
really doesn't want to.

~~~
rtkwe
If national quarantine's were holding in theory they could maybe move it if
another venue were possible.

It'd be shocking to say the least, the only Olympics that have been skipped in
the modern era were '16, '40 and '44 and that's because there were the World
Wars going on at the time. The closest I think we've gotten to a similar scare
would be SARS on 2002 but that was just starting iirc when the winter games in
Salt Lake City started.

------
huyegn
Meanwhile a man from the Westerdam cruise ship, where one passenger already
tested positive, escapes quarantine, books ubers, and multiple flights, is
arriving back in Seattle:

[https://komonews.com/news/local/man-stranded-on-
coronavirus-...](https://komonews.com/news/local/man-stranded-on-coronavirus-
infected-cruise-ship-arrives-at-sea-tac-airport)

Some people can't get more selfish. Also, what a colossal failure on the part
of customs and immigration.

~~~
jesterson
It's not about "just people" \- look at those people at cruise ship, abandoned
by Japan, abandoned by cruise company and their countries. Little knowledge
needed to predict what would happen if those people were left on the ship
under what japanese officials called "quarantine".

What is it if not selfishness of the whole nations? So are we to blame this
single passenger?

------
reustle
Show HN: I made an open-source COVID-19 coronavirus tracker for Japan

[https://COVID19Japan.com](https://COVID19Japan.com)

------
Erlich_Bachman
There is a useful daily updated dashboard that tracks all the cases,
recoveries, death, geographical data and analytics about all that:

[http://avatorl.org/covid-19/](http://avatorl.org/covid-19/)

~~~
allovernow
Those numbers are likely at least an order of magnitude underreported. They
mirror the figures out of China, and there are a number of issues:

1\. They follow a quadratic distribution over time with a regression
coefficient of >.99. that's now how epidemics spread

2\. China ran out of testing kits weeks ago.

3\. Half of the population is on lockdown, and according to Chinese reports,
even those who are sick and need to go to the hospital are not allowed to
travel. So cases are not being counted

4\. Even if they were able to do so, hospitals have been overwhelmed for weeks
and have been turning cases away

In addition to other reasons, the authoritarian CCP has shown a willingness to
punish anyone who speaks toward how severe this infection actually is and
their numbers absolutely cannot be trusted. Just look at the unprecedented
response - 700 million people, 10% of the world's population, is under
lockdown.

~~~
z2
Can't speak to 2-4, but on 1., there seems to be research suggesting early
epidemic growth can actually be quadratic:
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27266847](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27266847)

Specifically, it notes that "Sub-exponential growth profiles may result from
heterogeneity in contact structures or risk groups, reactive behavior changes,
or the early onset of interventions strategies, and consideration of
"deceleration parameters" may be useful to refine existing mathematical
transmission models and improve disease forecasts."

Not sure if there are more striking examples of "reactionary behavior change"
than a massive lockdown.

~~~
jerf
The problem is really the regression coefficient rather than the fact that
it's quadratic. Nothing is that clean in real life.

------
tunesmith
Is it possible that disease density increases chances of fatality for a
particular person? The fatality rate seems so low outside of China, compared
to China.

~~~
nexuist
Chinese air quality is godawful, and this is a respiratory disease, so the
large fatality rate makes sense. It is more important to look at ages of those
who die and so far it appears to be far more fatal to those over 50.

Individually the fatality rate won't change, but as more individuals are
infected the amount of people who are older will also go up and some of those
cases will become fatal.

~~~
tunesmith
I came across someone else talking about "viral load" yesterday - I wonder if
that is actually a factor.

------
TurkishPoptart
>Avoiding unprotected contact with farm or wild animals.

Well, that's a nice way of saying it.

------
drcross
I've heard it mentioned by an unreliable source that perhaps the Asian
phenotype has more of a tendancy to succumb to the virus. I won't how true
this is as the majority of the infections seem to be based in Asian countries
so far. I wonder how strong the correlation is.

~~~
manojlds
There's a lot of travel within those regions, so can't say much, but one
theory is the difference is ACE2 receptors amongst asians.

~~~
christkv
There is definitively different phenotypes
[https://www.medsci.org/v14p0639.htm](https://www.medsci.org/v14p0639.htm)

What that means for the coronavirus is hard to say.

Ideally we would know the composition of the cruise ship in japan of ethnicity
(illness in each group, and outcome) and location on the ship so one can
control for likelihood of being infected (I would guess having a room with a
terrace might mean less chance of infection as you would not be only relying
on AC air, but its a complete guess).

------
kragen
Hopefully the pandemic has been delayed long enough to find effective
treatments: [https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/china-
approve...](https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/china-approves-
favilavir-covid-19/)

One month ago, on 2020-01-17, there were 62 confirmed COVID-19 cases in China.
Now Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan without the _Diamond Princess_ , and the
_Diamond Princess_ itself each independently have 62 or more confirmed cases.

The rate of contagion within China has dropped dramatically, down from the
neighborhood of 30% per day to the neighborhood of 3% per day. If a similar
improvement plays out in Japan, Singapore — and countries like Indonesia,
Malaysia, Vietnam, and Australia, which probably have a lot more cases than
those they've caught — it would take more than a year for the pandemic to
reach its peak (log(7.7 billion / 73437)/log(1.03) ≈ 391), rather than the two
months we've been predicting so far. That could provide enough time even for
vaccination campaigns.

There are people claiming that the slowdown in China is due to underreporting,
but as far as I can tell that's pure speculation. It seems more likely that
it's due to the Chinese health authorities putting 10% of the world population
under near house arrest.

\----

Some news about the _Diamond Princess_ , though, from
[https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/19/national/diamon...](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/19/national/diamond-
princess-coronavirus/)

> _All passengers aboard the cruise ship who have tested negative for the
> virus will be allowed to start disembarking Wednesday, health minister
> Katsunobu Kato said Tuesday, with the ministry having finished taking test
> samples from all passengers. ..._

> _A group of 328 American passengers from the vessel left for home early
> Monday on planes chartered by the U.S. government. Over a dozen had tested
> positive for the virus._

So the number of COVID-19 cases in the US has just gone from 15 to somewhere
between 27 and 343, and the number in Japan is going from 74 to somewhere
between 500 and 4000 today. Those repatriated to the US are subject to a
14-day quarantine, and I think Japan is taking similar measures, so maybe this
won't fast-forward Japan from China's January 17 to China's January 26, in
terms of spread of the disease.

This is going to be very interesting, in the same way that oncoming headlights
are very interesting to a deer.

Note that this comment was originally voted down to -1. The anti-intellectual
scum are out in force on HN today, it seems.

~~~
russli1993
Regardless whether there is underreporting. Placing ppl in house arrest and
avoid any public gather will massively cut down the infection rate. I am not
sure whether such action can be taken by other countries if the disease
becomes full on outbreak in other nations. I really hope we dont have another
wuhan-like outbreak in another city.

~~~
kragen
Sure, but will it cut the infection rate from 30% per day to 20% or to 3%? I
think it's most likely that the Chinese figures are correct, but there is of
course the possibility that they are not.

------
watatta
Has anyone seen this video yet? Apparently the government is so BAD about
handling this. Sadly, not a surprise.

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtHYZkLuKcI&t=265s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtHYZkLuKcI&t=265s)

------
trenning
Has the origin of this been discovered/ agreed upon by now?

I don't follow this too closely but I remember discussions on here about the
origin. It seemed very contentious at the time because it started in the same
city as a research facility so there was questions of it being accidentally
released vs appearing organically in the market.

Slightly of-topic, but idk where else to ask about this.

~~~
theseadroid
A recent paper suggested that there is strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is not
the product of genetic engineering.

source: [http://virological.org/t/the-proximal-origin-of-sars-
cov-2/3...](http://virological.org/t/the-proximal-origin-of-sars-cov-2/398)

~~~
nexuist
It can still be released from a lab without being genetically engineered. It
is possible that they had a sample retrieved from a cave somewhere, and that
is what somehow escaped. That would explain the unprecedented response.

I think the conspiracy theorists are hoping for something more impressive
other than "it was a lab accident." History has taught us that lab accidents
are a bit more likely than we'd like to admit - see "Biohazard" by Ken Alibek.
The Soviet Union (and China) had several accidental release incidents during
his time in _Biopreparat_.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Alibek](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Alibek)

As it stands, we have no way of knowing if it came from an animal or this lab
unless they tell us. Either is possible.

------
Aeolun
Tokyo will become the next Wuhan, except they won’t be able to quarantaine
anyone.

~~~
partiallypro
Japan is a much much cleaner country than China, with better health
infrastructure. So I highly doubt your assessment.

~~~
paganel
The problem is that as far as we know about 15% of the people who get infected
with covid-19 require intensive care. Combine that with the fact that covid-19
is very easily transmissible (even from people who show no symptoms) plus the
size of a megalopolis such as Tokyo and things could get really ugly really,
really fast. No government has tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands
of hospital beds at the ready in order to handle such a scenario (and this is
also why the Chinese had to resort to putting sick people in sports halls and
the like).

There’s also the very ugly fact that most probably half of the health workers
directly involved will also get infected in the first 3 or 4 weeks, at which
point you’d need to have a fresh batch of new doctors and nurses easily
available from the outside.

~~~
Aeolun
For that matter, Tokyo may be one of the best places to be. I think the number
of hospital beds per person in Japan is ridiculously high[0] at 13.1 per 1000,
as opposed to 4.3 per 1000 for China.

0: [https://www.statista.com/statistics/283273/oecd-countries--
h...](https://www.statista.com/statistics/283273/oecd-countries--hospital-bed-
density/)

