

Twitter is going to die - karjaluoto
http://www.ideasonideas.com/2008/12/twitter-is-going-to-die/

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rantfoil
Twitter isn't going to die. The argument that Twitter is like high school is
valid. What's not valid is saying that high school doesn't matter or isn't how
the world works.

Twitter is like high school because the real world is like high school. Web
2.0 is DEFINITELY like high school. Even if we wish it weren't so.

~~~
tdavis
_the real world is like high school_

I'm interested to hear your argument on this, mostly because I've found the
real world to be nothing like high school. When it comes to "Web 2.0" startups
right now, sure, today's "hotness" might be nothing tomorrow, but the
companies that rely on sheer high school-like popularity will fail sooner or
later, just like those types of people eventually failed following high
school.

In cases of direct correlation, I at least see it working both ways. Yes,
there will be edge cases; certain people seem to be able to make a living
online without actually providing anything of real worth, but this is hardly
confined to the Web; tabloids have been doing it for decades.

~~~
rantfoil
Popularity matters, self-promotion matters, etc. It matters a ton. That's how
distribution happens. As a startup, that's the most important thing out there.
We get stuck in 'if you build it they will come' mode when we build our
startups, but it's just not true.

Spend a few minutes looking at quantcast/compete/alexa's top 1000 and it's
clear that the web is high school. From my high horse, it's filled with non-
enjoyable, valueless, spammy, low-brow cruft. But my high horse doesn't mean a
damn -- the only thing that matters is $$$ =)

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njharman
"Twitter is high-school"

Author needs to open their minds just a little more and they'll realize.

"Practically all social networking sites/things is high-school."

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shadytrees
Because publicly predicting the deaths of things (Perl, Python, Facebook,
MySpace, digg, reddit, Apple) based on one or two people's opinions _always_
works out.

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brandonkm
Interesting how the author completely dodged around twitters lack of revenue
problem. As of right now, twitter is having no trouble keeping afloat and will
possibly have a revenue model in a couple years. When twitter makes money it
won't "die" for quite some time, if twitter fails to make money, it will carry
along like it always has, propelled by its first mover status and the hype
it's created throughout all the years. I say this while setting the "its like
high school" and "everyone just collects followers" arguments aside. Those
seem to be hyperbole reasons to justify an argument that has no tangible
bearing on twitters actual situation and status as a company and as a service.

~~~
iamdave
Or - this is just a thought here - he just doesn't care?

Is he responsible for ensuring Twitter has a financial future? No. Are you?
No.

He's more interested in the social interaction aspect of the site, if he
_wanted_ to talk about revenue I'm sure he would have.

~~~
brandonkm
I doubt it, given how weak his argument that twitter is going to die based on
perceived reasons like "its like high school" and "people just collect
followers" make me wonder if this guy really knows what he's talking about or
is he just going for a shock title. I just think if we're writing articles
called "twitter is going to die" and giving reasons to support that based on
the social interaction aspects of the site (like you stated), then better
reasons should be stated. Contrary to his argument, i'm sure twitter is not
like "high school" to millions of users, and people are not just "making" or
"collecting" friends but rather tapping into their interests and networks to
stay updated on things in real time. I've seen similar arguments made for
myspace, but twitter is a fundamentally different type of social site, so the
"collecting followers" argument dosn't hold up as well here.

~~~
karjaluoto
I rarely know what I'm talking about. Thanks for the insights. ;-)

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petercooper
_So, it doesn’t matter that someone says really interesting things, it just
matters that you’re friends with the prom-queen._

Noo.... what matters on Twitter is that the prom-queen is friends with _you_.

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pmjordan
I don't know. The people I follow on Twitter don't seem to use it in the "high
school" way, and neither do I - I don't automatically follow someone just
because they follow me. I might, if they're saying interesting or fun stuff;
I'm not saying I only tweet nuggets of wisdom myself, but I do aim for some
degree of quality.

I don't follow "influencial" people for the sake of it, I have my doubts that
really helps. On the other hand, I've met some really cool people and also
clients through it, which helped a lot, especially as I moved to Vienna
knowing virtually nobody.

I have however found that I do need to keep my follow list in check, or the
stream of information is overwhelming.

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lallysingh
Sounds more like a maturity problem, probably reminiscent of what email had
decades ago.

I'd love some client-side filtering & prioritization of my twitter data. While
it doesn't have the same archival needs of email, I definitely care more about
my infrequently-twitting friends than the dozens of them coming off the more
famous tweeters.

As for high school, that's what you get when any social system starts to
stagnate.

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steveplace
Checkout stocktwits.com . I use the application regularly and have nothing but
good things about the app.

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webwright
Yaw, software VC is reeling a bit... But do you honestly think that the
investors that Twitter has won't throw a few million at it to keep it running
given that it's growth curve is so outstanding? Dead in 6 months is a near-
ridiculous prediction.

~~~
karjaluoto
I'm not implying that the company will be out of business in 6 months. My
suggestion is that given it's rate of acceleration, mass fatigue with it will
start to set in amongst many and soon.

Perhaps the title should have read: We're going to have to change how we use
Twitter. Then of course, that seems a little dull, doesn't it? :-)

~~~
mechanical_fish
_mass fatigue with it will start to set in amongst many and soon_

What, you mean like it did with email and the telephone? ;)

I think Twitter will have a lot of staying power. The magic of Twitter is that
it remains _very_ simple relative to, say, Facebook. There is a very bare-
bones set of social-networking relationships: Basically, you can follow, and
you can be followed. And following doesn't _necessarily_ carry the social
subtext of, say, your Facebook friend list, perhaps because it comes with far
fewer consequences, ramifications, and options.

I find it interesting that my (now nearly middle-aged) generation has finally
discovered Facebook en masse... and that the number one use case seems to be
"keeping in touch with your classmates from high school and college". Facebook
was originally designed for students, and that design permeates its DNA to the
point that even people who've been out of school for twenty years revert back
to Student Mode when they use it: It becomes an ongoing class reunion. But I
don't think Twitter will work out quite the same. I think Twitter is more like
the phone: In the hands of teens, it's a gossip tool. In the hands of
corporate consultants, it's a business tool. In the hands of moms, it's a
parenting tool. It's sufficiently abstract that people can find their own uses
for it.

I mean, take me. I just don't understand what this fuss is about, anymore than
a corporate Blackberry user understands the culture of middle-school text
messaging. I don't use Twitter as a high-schoolish gossiping tool and I never
have. I don't follow that many people, and I don't see a high volume of
tweets. I don't tweet much myself, and I have very few followers. I don't talk
to personal friends on Twitter. (Most of them are not there yet; As I said, a
lot of them are only just starting to digest Facebook. They'll need another
two or three years to discover Twitter.) I still don't understand what these
#hashtags really do for you or where you go to see them. I'm the most boring,
out-of-touch Twitter user in the world. _But I still love it._ So I don't
think Twitter is going anywhere soon. Fads will come and fads will go, but the
desire to communicate goes on.

~~~
pxlpshr
I disagree with this blog article, and your response is dead on.

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hardik
its not

