
San Francisco apartment rent prices are dropping fast - Reedx
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/san-francisco-one-bedroom-rent-price-drops-11point8percent-in-june-zumper.html
======
B4CKlash
I'll add to the anecdotal evidence.

I live in Denver and just resigned my lease without much in the way of
increased negotiation power. I run into two main issues here:

1). Extreme information asymmetry. While many of the properties are owned by
different investors, many of those same properties are managed by a
significantly smaller subset. Those property managers have a cartel like
effect. For instance, they can strategically hold back supply to keep a rent
floor and 'establish' extremely draconian lease terms under the guise of
'market forces.'

2). Draconian lease terms. This is a subset of the 1st point, but it's
extremely difficult to price the market when you're required to give (move-
out) notice well in advance of the actual lease date. Because the market here
is so fast, you're basically jumping in blind-folded at what might be
available when you go to look for a new lease. Great for landlords you can
fill a spot in a moments notice, but horrible for a tenet who's trying to
understand the cost of such a decision.

~~~
qqqwerty
My understanding is that these price crashes are largely happening in the
VHCOL (very high cost of living) like NYC and SF. One of the dynamics at play
in the VHCOL cities is that the rent is so expensive that the cost of moving,
even if only for a few months, is fairly trivial in comparison. If you are
paying $4k for a 1-bdrm apartment, packing your stuff up, putting it in
storage, and moving into a short-term rental in a lower COL area is likely to
be net positive in term of cash flow. Financially, this make less sense in
more moderate COL areas unless the pandemic/lockdown goes on for much longer,
or if you can work remote permanently.

So cities like Denver and Austin are probably not seeing as much outmigration,
but are also probably seeing some immigration from the VHCOL areas.

~~~
kulahan
Just a friendly FYI, the opposite of immigration is emigration.

~~~
senkora
For extra confusion, immigration and emigration are homophones in a Southern
accent because of the pin-pen merger:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pin–pen_merger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pin–pen_merger)

~~~
mywittyname
I've never heard the two sound different in any dialect and I'm not from the
south.

~~~
truckerbill
Not met many Brits then

------
luxurytent
In two weeks I move out of my $2,800/month, 3 bedroom apartment in Boston, MA.
We're moving to a lower cost-of-living city.

Our upstairs neighbours, who share a 3 bedroom apartment are also all out. One
moved to Denver (job opportunity), the other two are finding a more affordable
alternative outside the city. These are young professionals who enjoy a patio
and drinks on a Friday.

Our landlord originally listed our unit back at $2,800/month but I see it's
now at $2,500/month.

My anecdotal evidence of the shift :)

~~~
jseliger
As high-cost cities that refuse to allow adequate housing to be built force
residents out, the jobs are eventually going to follow. Established companies
may stay to an extent, but the new ones will grow up in Denver, Phoenix,
Austin, and so forth. It's a shift that may be impossible to arrest if or when
it really gets going.

Then we'll see thousands of articles about how SF, Boston, and so forth can't
pay for the public services the cities want to pay for, and how terrible it is
that companies are leaving. Those stories will contrast with the ones we've
seen over the last decade, about how companies are evil and driving up the
cost of housing.

Edit to add, the other question is eviction. Right now SF appears to have
banned eviction: [https://sfist.com/2020/06/10/sf-supervisors-extend-
eviction-...](https://sfist.com/2020/06/10/sf-supervisors-extend-eviction-
moratorium-indefinitely/). If or when that ends, we'll see what the market
clears at. I assume courts will eventually forbid an indefinite eviction
moratorium, but courts are already willing to go along with rent control, so
who knows?

~~~
jadbox
Why has Denver suddenly become a spot compared to the rest of the country? I'm
not too familiar with what's happening there.

~~~
jseliger
Denver is inexpensive compared to California, Seattle, NYC, and Boston. But it
is (relatively) urban, dense, walkable, and bikeable, with lots more bike
lanes incoming. It has a mass-transit system of sorts, although it really
needs a north-south subway connecting Cherry Creek to Downtown and past the
freeway, as well as an east-west subway along Colfax. It has relatively good
and sunny weather. The airport is very large and relatively easy to get to.
The economy is pretty strong. Taxes are not insanely high. I was looking at it
as a possible place to move.

Austin has many of those, but without mass transit, and Phoenix has some, but
it's less urban and the traffic is horrible.

~~~
jasondclinton
Also notable: virtually isolated from natural disasters: no earthquakes,
tornadoes, hurricanes, wild fires (in the urban areas), volcanoes, floods,
tsunamis, land slides, avalanches, or sink-holes.

Also, climate modelling says that it's going to get wetter which would make
its land more arable.

So, good retirement investment.

~~~
zip1234
Also, much nicer weather than people think.

------
jedberg
I think some of this is temporary. My friend just left NYC. They loved it
there, but since everything is closed, there was no reason to stay. The bars,
clubs, and restaurants were the main reasons they were there.

They figured they might as well save money and move back home with their
parents until everything opens again. Then they'll probably go back.

I suspect things will pick up in SF as the bars and clubs and restaurants open
again.

~~~
eli_gottlieb
Were people really living in the city for the recreation? I always thought
most people either lived in the urban core for work, or because they're _from_
the urban core and used to it.

But then again, I suppose I'm biased by living in Boston, which... kinda hates
fun and wants to make sure you go home early.

~~~
WrtCdEvrydy
NYC is open 24 hours a day.

Miami closes at around 2AM (generally).

It's night and day.

~~~
eli_gottlieb
Yeah, Boston wants you to be going home at 12AM, when the last trains are
leaving their stations, and they _force_ bars/clubs/restaurants/etc to be
closed by 2AM, period.

It makes me miss the random industrial city in another country I lived in for
my MSc. Admittedly, that's one of my favorite cities period, but _it had
night-owl bus lines_ , including BRT. You could go out at 20:30, stay out
until 04:30, and get home at 5:45.

~~~
Thriptic
Preach. Boston is damn near overly hostile towards young people. They hyper
regulate all activities and services that young people want to participate in
or use as you point out, do nothing to reign in housing prices, and then are
shocked when they have a hard time retaining talented people after they get
their degrees. It's absurd.

~~~
eli_gottlieb
>and then are shocked when they have a hard time retaining talented people
after they get their degrees.

I mean, come on. Are they _shocked_? Or is this how the townies want it? My
impression is that quite a lot of the "natives" who think of themselves as
"True Bostonians(TM)" (ie: not just those of us who've lived here for years,
married someone raised here, and own property here) _want_ this place to be
the world's most populous (but rather restrictive) college town.

Why would they want more people around to ruin _their_ city by walking around
_doing_ things? Come, spend your money like a tourist, fuel _their_
businesses, get your degree if you're one of those workaholic nerds, and _get
the fuck back out_. You can come back eventually if you manage to make the
tenure track!

------
DonHopkins
Amsterdam too.

My landlord tried to retroactively raise the rent on me during the COVID
crisis, so I got pissed off and rage-browsed the rental web sites, and found a
great deal I couldn't refuse:

I just moved from a 1 floor flat to a 4 floor house with 90% more space,
backyard garden on a canal, an indoor garage (for bikes and storage since I
don't have a car), near public transit, for 20% less rent!

They had to lower the rent 500 EUR a month to compete with all the AirBnB's
that were suddenly dumped on the long term rental market.

My previous butt-hole landlord was shocked I was leaving on such short notice,
and apologetic for the dick move that he tried to pull, and asked how he could
convince me to stay, because he liked me as a tenant. I told him he'd have to
at least give me the entire flat upstairs for free, to even get in the
ballpark, and anyway it was a moot point because I'd already signed the
contract.

Now I am much better prepared for the COVID crisis to last an indefinitely
long time, and actually have enough room to get a chest freezer for the
garage, for cooking and eating at home, and set up a big separate office
instead using my bedroom, for working at home.

~~~
onemiketwelve
Nice playa

~~~
DonHopkins
I have no interest in attending Burning Man.

------
AnotherGoodName
If you are trying to rent right now the going rate seems to be 2 months free
for a 12month contract. So almost 20% off.

I think the reason for the 2 months free is to avoid various rent controls. If
they actually gave 20% off they couldn't put the price back up 20% in the
future as easily.

~~~
gkop
Regarding SF rent control: this commenter sounds like they know what they're
talking about and say that landlords in SF cannot beat rent control with
temporary free rent offers:
[https://socketsite.com/archives/2020/06/complimentary-
rent-o...](https://socketsite.com/archives/2020/06/complimentary-rent-on-the-
rise-in-san-francisco.html#comment-394729)

~~~
jedberg
They're wrong. The new rent control law (effective Jan 1, 2020) specifically
excludes temporary discounts from the base rate calculation. See section
1947.12:

[https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtm...](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201920200AB1482)

~~~
srini
This is a state law and it still allows for stricter city level rent control.
If the unit is bound under the stricter SF city rent control, the city rent
control law may treat discounts differently?

~~~
jedberg
SF does not count discounts in the base rent:
[https://sfrb.org/section-372-definitions](https://sfrb.org/section-372-definitions)

------
code4tee
Seeing lots of evidence indicating that prices are falling in cities and it’s
very hard to sell.

Meanwhile in the suburbs around cities the market is booming in certain
segments. Lots of people who vowed they were always city dwellers are suddenly
keen to live in the burbs. Hearing lots of stories of houses in desirable
suburbs getting multiple competitive offers the first day they go on the
market.

In the rental space in suburbs and vacation communities heard lots of stories
of places being rented at above market prices sight unseen by people just
looking to get out of the city for the summer/year.

Things will probably pick up in cities once things start to return to normal,
but like a lot of things it’s likely going to be a very long time before
things get back to where they were before all this started.

~~~
nostromo
That seems to be the case in Seattle.

Apartments in the city center are desperate to sign leases. But houses are
actually a little more expensive this year, and they sell within a few days of
hitting the market.

And it make sense. New urbanism is dead at the moment: parks, cafes, and
theaters are closed. There are no events. Nobody wants to take transit. But in
single family neighborhoods, life is basically normal. Not to mention there is
no traffic and gas is dirt cheap.

~~~
tomcam
Also because, you know, a goodly chunk of Seattle was ransacked, covered with
graffiti, riddled with gunfire, responsible for at least 5 shootings in a
month, looted, boarded up, and deprived of any protection at all.

~~~
Klonoar
This is needlessly dismissive of why those events occurred to begin with. SPD
themselves (as evidenced by numerous videos) caused more than enough of the
anguish and problems, and Durkan's actions speak for themselves.

There are many reasons to not want to be in Seattle right now, but casting it
as a warzone without "protection" (from the very aggressors themselves) is a
bit much.

~~~
lr4444lr
What about the rampant homeless and drug use problems that predated all of
this?

~~~
Klonoar
I see people bring this up all the time for Seattle. However... I've literally
lived in the radius of the oft-demonized stretch of 3rd and Pike/Pine for the
past 2-3 years.

I can assure you that while it's bad, they generally don't bother people and
simply need a system that actually helps them. More police won't solve
anything here - I'm confident in this statement as they sit outside my window
daily and do absolutely nothing as it is.

~~~
xapata
You must live on a high floor. The homeless outside my window are annoyingly
noisy. Too often they wake me up at night or scare my dog when I'm out
walking. I'm tired of spotting needles in the bushes and I'm worried someday I
or my dog will step on one without a cap. The other day, I watched one guy
threaten another with a knife.

Call me callous, but I'd like to build drugs-allowed shelters so that they
leave the streets.

~~~
Klonoar
I live pretty close to street level, actually - sometimes people on the corner
by the Kress are playing music too loud, but this is a city: you're going to
hear some noise.

I walk two dogs here a few times daily and while the litter has been worse
post-COVID, it wasn't always this bad due to the city cleaners.

In general I agree with your shelters idea, Seattle does not do nearly enough
to help these people.

Without knowing what part of Seattle you're specifically referring to I can't
really explain more. If you're referring to Pioneer Square... well, I won't
fight you on that one - that area needs help.

------
ransom1538
I watch SF rents like a hawk. A decent 2ba/2br is $~4200 which is lower than a
year ago. Also! I am seeing apartments come on the market - that haven't been
on the market in 10 years: Views, custom kitchens, 1200 sqft, parking (wtf??).
A handful of listings are starting to give out 1 or 2 months free (this is
because they can't lower the rent due to rent control issues). But if you are
looking in SF - grab something that hasn't been on the market for a decade -
these are unique treasures.

~~~
asdff
What do you use to skim listings?

~~~
gen220
Not the poster, but I do identical surfing in NYC and use Zillow. It’s all
about the right filters (posted in last 24 hours, prices, neighborhoods,
amenities). You can set up email updates, but it’s more tedious to read the
emails than it is to browse their app.

My anecdotal data in NYC is identical, btw. I used to see a great apartment
_maybe_ once a week. Now, it’s closer to 5-8 per week. And they’re all “under”
priced by 10-20%. I saw a rent-controlled parlor floor brownstone in Brooklyn
heights recently. It’s unreal.

It’s just a bit sad to think how many of these households were lived in by
actual victims of the coronavirus.

------
asimjalis
I live in the Bay Area and this has not been my experience. Looking at
Craigslist and Zillow the rents are stable. Perhaps the rate of increase has
slowed down slightly. That is all.

~~~
AnotherGoodName
Yeah as i stated above if you're actually looking call them up and they'll
suggest 1-2months free. Source: I'm looking right now and pretty much everyone
will say yes to 1 or 2 months free. They just don't want to drop their listed
prices. Perhaps to avoid renewals in the same complex citing the lower prices
and negotiating or perhaps to avoid rent controls locking in rates when this
ends.

~~~
bradlys
Are you looking mostly at large apartment complexes?

This is not the case with single family homes for rent - as far as I can tell.
The single family homes and in-law units are vanishing as fast as they ever
have in the desirable areas.

~~~
AnotherGoodName
Yes. Also i think you're right there. Everyone's moving out from the more
central areas to houses in the suburbs.

------
narrator
What happened to San Francisco is that public transit is vastly degraded, and
you can't use the bathroom at most private businesses, even if you buy
something. Thus, you are leashed to the bathroom distance from your house.
Thus, you must drive everywhere, which makes city living much much less
attractive vs. being in the suburbs. Add to that that remote work is the norm
now, and there seems to be a higher crime rate in the cities with all the
rioting, and living in the suburbs makes a lot more sense.

~~~
GaryNumanVevo
Having lived in SF for 10 years, it's really easy to use the restroom, there
are plenty of public restrooms as well... Not sure where you lived.

~~~
selectodude
Last time I was in San Francisco I noticed the entire city was an open
bathroom :)

~~~
SomeoneFromCA
Open bedroom, open bathroom and beyond.

------
cephaslr
“300 landlords who own more than 10,000 apartments”

Wow, that’s allot of concentrated wealth. Anyone have some insight on these
fine folk?

If each landlord owns 100 apartments renting for $4k each(average) that’s
$400k a month gross. That’s allot of potential venture capital money to
capture monthly, over $20M in five years.

~~~
AnimalMuppet
Sure, _if_ they own outright, rather than having borrowed money to buy the
apartment complexes, and _if_ they don't have to pay maintenance, insurance,
landscaping, and so on.

It's not just free money. They're making money, sure, but considerably less
than your calculation.

~~~
jeffbee
Not sure how much you know about the SF market. We only get glimpses, but it
gives you an idea of how much wealth these landlords capture.

The building at the corner of Fillmore and Waller was bought for $1.05
million, 20 years ago. It has 6 retail storefronts and 18 apartments upstairs.
Just one of the retail doors rent for $10000/month, or it did before this rent
strangled the tenant:

[https://hoodline.com/2020/04/cafe-du-soleil-shutters-
after-1...](https://hoodline.com/2020/04/cafe-du-soleil-shutters-
after-15-years-in-the-lower-haight)

The building is assessed for $1.4m, so the taxes are around $15000/year (which
the tenants pay under NNN terms) but the gross is probably well over
$50000/month. And there's no landscaping, obviously.

These people are absolutely stacking cash. They are just parasites.

~~~
jedberg
> They are just parasites.

They are providing a service. You arrive in a new city with no money. Where
will you live? The landlord is assuming the risk of owning and maintaining the
building and all you have to do it put in a deposit.

The main reason they are "parasites" is prop 13. Without that, their building
would be assessed at a reasonable level, and most of their profits would be
property tax payments.

If you live in California, make sure to vote yes on the two partial repeals of
Prop 13 this November:

[https://ballotpedia.org/California_Property_Tax_Transfers_an...](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Property_Tax_Transfers_and_Exemptions_Initiative_\(2020\))

[https://ballotpedia.org/California_Property_Tax_Transfers,_E...](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Property_Tax_Transfers,_Exemptions,_and_Revenue_for_Wildfire_Agencies_and_Counties_Amendment_\(2020\))

~~~
oa335
Landlords may provide services, but they primarily extract economic rent,
essentially profiting from their their monopoly on that particular piece of
land.

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_rent](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_rent)

~~~
perl4ever
How can they profit from the unproduced value of the land when they had to buy
it? It seems to me that you're assuming landlords owned the land since before
high property values in SF or wherever were a thing. It seems unlikely this
situation accounts for much of the real estate.

------
throwawaysea
I hope many of the cities that have seen rapid growth in the last decade get a
similar reprieve from the strain of growth. As an example, Seattle has changed
in ways that have reduced quality of life - worsening travel times,
neighborhoods that look/feel completely different, visible blight everywhere,
over-subscribed/crowded city amenities, etc. The culture of the city has also
been overwhelmed by transplants, and with it, the old PNW spirit has
effectively been smothered. The politics of the city is also completely
different from what it was 15 years ago. I'd welcome an exodus here, even if
it means reduced a reversal of economic growth/houses prices/etc.

At the same time, I think these changes will be healthy for those who do move
out. Some are moving back in with families, and the cultural continuity of
multi-generational homes is an important part of human society historically. I
also hope it encourages people to discover cheaper towns in the country that
have been ignored and left out of the last couple decades' economic gains.
Many of those places have a lot to offer, and I bet those who give them a try
will be surprised how much they like it. The economies of those areas will
also benefit from the boost.

------
stephencoyner
Has anyone in SF successfully Renegotiated rent based on this? If so, would
love to hear about it.

I’ve been living in the same apartment for 3 years with no rent changes and
feel like it’s time for a drop

~~~
jonathankau
We recently renegotiated our rent for a 2br apartment in SF about 7% down
after having begun our lease in March. Used a 2 prong tactic of mentioning
some frustrations that we've had thus far as well as offering to extend our
lease. We didn't have much leverage, but offering something in exchange for
the rent reduction was probably what convinced them.

------
sevencolors
Ugh, they interviewed someone from J.Warvo. That company is scummy. They've
been renting out literal shithole apartments/studios for above average prices.
But barely respond to tenant needs. I hope they collapse

~~~
seehafer
Most of the SF Property Mgmt companies are what Peter Thiel famously referred
to as "urban slumlords".

------
burlesona
At my office (working in tech in downtown SF) about 30-40% of employees have
moved out of the city. Many plan for it to be temporary (why pay SF rent for
the months we are all remote). Some are clearly hoping it will be permanent,
but I think the chances of that are slim. I think we are on track to offer a
lot more remote options than we did in the past - but I think that in 2021 a
decision to stay remote will mean a huge pay cut.

------
jb775
I own rental property in suburbs outside Philadelphia, my tenant's lease was
up end of May and demand was off the charts compared to previous years. Only
anecdotal, but had multiple people mention they just wanted to get out of the
inner-city, but still be close.

Suburbs (around here at least) are a lot more millennial-friendly than people
give them credit for. I think as millennials age and get over the "must be in
walking distance of a social scene" mindset, this trend will accelerate. I
also think the inner-city riots/looting/etc will stimulate this across the US.

~~~
jeffbee
Well of course millennials can't afford the inner city, being the poorest
generation in modern history. Suburbs are usually cheaper (if you forget to
net out transportation costs) so that's where millennials will go.

~~~
jb775
I agree with you, but I don't think it will be entirely about personal
finances. Inner city living is a lifestyle that has high-highs (easy work
commute if you work in the city, more vibrant social life, nearby public
transit) and low-lows (higher crime/violence, unhealthy air quality, terrible
public schools). As the highs start to matter less (social life not as active,
remote working more acceptable, etc), and the lows start to matter more (they
have kids, etc), I think the natural progression is that they move out of the
city.

------
dionidium
The comments here are all about the rental market, but the opposite seems to
be happening in the housing market, at least where I'm at in Providence, RI.
We're shopping for houses in the city and the price graphs have gone
exponential. Seriously, look at the price graph on Zillow for these two places
near me:

* [https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/25-Brighton-St-Providence...](https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/25-Brighton-St-Providence-RI-02909/66095703_zpid/)

* [https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5-Alton-St-Providence-RI-...](https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5-Alton-St-Providence-RI-02908/65954264_zpid/)

The first one of those is in a very trendy gentrifying neighborhood. The
second is in an adjacent working-class neighborhood. In both cases the asking
price has shot way up from a year ago and has totally disconnected from the
prevailing trends of just a couple months ago.

Supply is very low. Rates are very low. And the result is that the market is
very hot. Every house we look at has multiple offers the next day, usually
above asking.

------
m_a_g
I hope this trend continues, but I feel like after the pandemic ends, prices
will bounce back up.

~~~
aantix
Do you think people will move back once the pandemic is over?

~~~
121789
Yep, I think the vast majority will. Many companies are allowing remote work
for the rest of 2020 with no change in compensation. Once that ends, I'd
expect people to come back. I think probably another driver of the decreased
rents are the recent college graduates that had no reason to move to SF once
the virus hit and everything closed. I'd expect them to move to the city once
things get back to normal

~~~
crooked-v
On the other hand, there might be a fair number of people who move to
comparable but much cheaper locations (and given the insanity of SF, that
includes most other major US cities) while still trying to work remote
indefinitely.

~~~
neilparikh
Yup, I suspect many of those live in SF want to be in a city rather than
suburbs, but they're not tied to SF specifically. They just choose SF because
that's where the jobs are, and would just as happy in a different urban area.

------
MobileVet
“Zumper has been tracking rent prices across the country for over five years
but we have never seen the market fluctuate quite like this,”

Five whole years?!?

Honestly, CNBC couldn’t find someone with more experience than this??

------
adaisadais
I think SF rents reached their zenith shortly before the pandemic.

Walking around the city you see a lot of commercial real estate signs and for
lease signs. Tons of companies and individuals are leaving for good.

If the trend of WFH (forever) continues the rent prices in SF won’t go back up
for a long time.

~~~
adfm
What made SF interesting was pushed out long ago. What's left is an insular
monoculture not unlike Cavendish bananas. Unless you've got deep roots there,
seriously consider the alternative.

~~~
pound
What would you suggest as a few examples to consider? (let's assume there is
no covid in place so everything is open as usual) Thanks!

~~~
momokoko
Everywhere else has less monoculture than SF. So just anywhere else in the US.
Don’t get me wrong, SF is cool and an easy place to live with the weather and
the parks and density level. But the people are as bland and similar as you
can get.

------
davidw
I am not sure we have concrete data, but I'm really concerned about what this
will do where I live: Bend, Oregon, which is more of a destination for the
types of people getting out of the bay area.

A gradual influx of people is good, as over time it leads to more of a local
talent pool, people starting companies, and that sort of thing.

But a rapid influx might be the last straw for a lot of people who are not
working remotely in highly paid jobs. Nurses, firefighters, teachers, police,
and so on.

In the past, I think our prices moved more or less in sync with other west
coast markets, broadly, but if there's a real exodus from cities, that might
not hold true this cycle.

------
snug
I've been casually looking on zillow. I have not seen rent go down in my
neighborhood (NoPa)

~~~
mbalex99
Same. I’ve been eyeing Laurel Heights and Marina and I haven’t seen those
places dip. However Berkeley has plummeted. It’s the only place in east bay
that i would consider because there are a lot of ethnic restaurants. Ethnic
diverse restaurants are key for me.

~~~
Ductapemaster
Berkeley is a fantastic place to live! Tons of great food (all open for
takeout right now), the music scene was really fun when it was open, great
fresh produce available at local markets, and most of what we need is walkable
from our place, including BART. Also the weather is awesome compared to the
city. It's sunny most days now, and the only annoyance is that it's pretty
windy in the afternoons.

We been here for 10 months now, and signed for another year at our currently
place with no rent increase. I didn't negotiate (our landlord offered us the
same rent), but we have the best working relationship with him that I've ever
had with a landlord and that's worth it to me. Also he's open to us modifying
the property, which is worth something as well — he paid for ceiling fans to
be installed and let me build a big garden in the backyard, for example. The
place isn't perfect, but for now and especially during SIP, it's great. I
expect if and when we move, we will continue to live in Berkeley.

------
winslow
Anecdotal evidence, I was able to negotiate $200 off my $3,300 monthly rent in
Los Angeles for a 2 bed / 2 bath 1,000 sqft. I think I could have negotiated
$300 off but just went with the $200 off for 7 months.

We haven't signed the new lease and are potentially rethinking of signing
since cases are starting to spike again and surrounding areas are looking
really attractive for similar accommodations at ~$2,500 monthly rent.

We're hoping to buy a house within the next year.

------
maxwellg
I'm moving out of my place at the end of July. Gonna do some short-term
sublets for a few months, then move in with some friends coming up from South
Bay. We've been checking Craigslist daily for weeks now and it's very exciting
to see how prices have come down. We're at a point right now where we're
holding out on getting a place since we expect prices to continue to drop.

------
tmpz22
I moved from a $3000 1BR in downtown to an $1100 private room (4br 2ba 3
roomates) in the outter Richmond in SF. There is no reason to live in downtown
SF right now with everyone working from home.

Many facebook groups are advertising significant rental decreases particularly
for roomate-situations. They're calling it a "COVID discount" but I suspect
its going to stick around for awhile.

~~~
sbierwagen
Yow, $1100 to have 3 roommates? That sounds painful.

~~~
iaw
A lot of housing in the outer Richmond is comprised of larger 4 bedroom 2
bathroom units making it not that cramped of a situation.

------
KoftaBob
_World 's smallest violin plays for all the landlords and homeowners who may
no longer benefit from the Bay Area's absurd restrictions on new housing_

In all seriousness, while I welcome the new openness to remote work, what I'd
love to see is a push towards something in the middle: distributed offices.

Rather than having to choose between moving to ridiculously expensive SF, or
working from home in their current city, employees could go to their local
coworking space.

They'd get the benefits of an environment more conducive to productivity, away
from the distractions of home, and the mental health benefits of social
interaction. I don't think that making a huge shift to working from home is
good for the already prevalent issue of loneliness.

Plus, having coworking spaces spread out within the city itself means that
even if your company is headquartered in your city, you don't have to make the
long commute to HQ if there's a closer coworking space.

------
netcan
It was early into social distancing that big techcos started
announcing/enforcing their policies on remote worker salaries... I though:
that's fast. This must be reactive. Maybe lots of employees have already
moved, or they expect them to.

Mainstream remote work has felt 5 years away for 20 years. We kind of stopped
pondering the side effects. Circa 2000 there was a lot of interesting
speculation though. Housing markets. Transport markets. If a 45 minute d2d
commute represents 10% of a workday, remote working increases productivity by
this much. Labour market flexibility and liquidity, for what that's worth.
Reversing regional brain drains.

Hopefully this is because of remote work relocations, not just insolvency.

On a side note, this recessing is freaking me out.

~~~
texasbigdata
Sleeping on a train, perhaps, is not the same as having the stamina to work
for another 2 hours.

------
jt2190
The report referenced in the article is here:
[https://www.zumper.com/blog/zumper-national-rent-report-
july...](https://www.zumper.com/blog/zumper-national-rent-report-july-2020/)

------
mcbutterbunz
I wonder what long term effects there will be with having more remote workers?
There are many positive side effects such as more time now that people dont
have to commute, cleaner air, happier individuals, fewer automobiles on the
road.

But, at the same time, will there be more urban sprawl? More alcoholism since
its easier to drink at home? More loneliness or feeling less connected to your
coworkers?

It'll be interesting to see how things play out. Maybe there's only a small
temporary change and things go back to the way they were once this is all
forgotten.

------
bitdotdash
Single family home rentals seem to be going the opposite direction. My lease
just came up for renewal. Tried my damnedest to talk them out of a 5% rate
increase based on covid and city wide rent declines, but they said that single
family homes were facing a massive inventory shortage as people were rushing
from apartments to houses. =/

------
colordrops
Will the drop in rent affect purchase prices? It doesn't seem that the cost of
houses is going down in SF and LA.

~~~
scurvy
In aggregate, possibly. It's highly location and feature specific. Does your
condo have an exclusive-use backyard or deed patio area? That price is jumping
by huge amounts right now in SF. Is it in a high-rise only served by
elevators, or do you have a private entrance? Shelter-in-place friendly
features are heavily in demand right now. The old selling points of Bay views
and walk-to-work are getting crushed right now. Some condos are seeing big
price drops, others are on the market a few days and selling way above a
healthy list. It will be interesting to see how things unfold in aggregate.

San Francisco SFR is still a hot market, especially with a back yard.

I'm selling my condo with exclusive yard access once I can find a place to
live in Contra Costa.

------
FabHK
> average rent for a one-bedroom apartment in San Francisco fell 11.8% year
> over year in June, following a 9% year-over-year drop in May.

So, assuming rent was approximately constant in the year up to April, it first
fell 9% now in May, and then another 3% in June? Wouldn't that be a better way
of putting the numbers?

~~~
hcs
It's calculated year-over-year by matching months because there are
significant seasonal effects, so you can't easily go from YOY to figure how it
changed month-to-month.

~~~
FabHK
Good point.

However, that also means that if there is a one-off drop of, say, 10%, then
newspapers could report a "10% drop YOY" in 12 successive months.

------
tomashertus
The first apartment I moved to in San Francisco in 2013 started on $2300/month
and the price jumped to $3300/month when I left 5 years later.

Yesterday, the exact same apartment after complete reconstruction was offered
for $2500/month plus two free months. That's pretty incredible.

------
omarhaneef
This is obviously (I believe it is obvious) related to COVID. But is this
because of the general economic malaise, or because people are moving out
enabled by remote work.

Let's look at other places. Non-tech places which still have good jobs in,
say, energy and medicine, in a place like, say, Houston:

[https://www.har.com/content/mls/?m=06&y=20](https://www.har.com/content/mls/?m=06&y=20)

Average prices in May are down 7% to San francisco's 9%. It would seem the
impact is very similar in very different cities.

This doesn't help us per se because the ability to telecommute may be as
valuable in Houston as it is in San Francisco.

However, if you believe the kinds of industries in Houston -- medicine and
energy -- are less able to be made remote (and I don't have evidence for
this), we might suspect that most of the collapse in pricing is driven by job
layoffs.

------
gumby
I’m not seeing it in Silicon Valley. Also: in the accessible sierras (e.g.
Calaveras county) rents and house prices are going up as ppl realize they can
work from home up there.

------
WalterBright
In other words, supply+demand works and has always worked.

------
tasuki
Why is everything in the article in year-over-year percentages? Can't they
just say how much the rent has _actually_ fallen?

------
some_furry
Good. This needs to happen.

The rent prices were way too damn high for a long time (which is the #1 reason
I refuse to live in a big tech city).

~~~
warent
Rent prices are dropping because more people are becoming homeless or dying.
Not good.

~~~
luxurytent
This is a wild claim! Do you have anything to back it?

~~~
throwaway_USD
Rent is falling across the country...Do you believe unemployment skyrocketing
to somewhere between 20-40 million people across the Country preceding the
rent price crash is coincidence? Do you have an alternative hypothesis why
rent across the Country is dropping? If its not a drop in demand...that would
suggest the entire Country increased its housing supply at the same time.

~~~
dgfitz
Perhaps a good percentage of millennials moved back in with parents? Perhaps
because lots of people are buying instead of continuing to rent because
interest rates are so low? Massive amounts of people dying seems like quite
the claim indeed.

------
coding123
It's probably because they can move closer to Palo Alto, San Jose and other
places now.

------
egypturnash
Oh awesome. Maybe someday my friends who are SF natives will be able to move
back home.

------
amiga_500
What happened? Did they change the zoning laws?

I think Hacker News always cites that as the main problem, right?

~~~
jedberg
There are two sides to the housing equation. Supply and demand. Demand has
been high for quite some time, so the only way to alleviate it was to increase
supply (aka change the zoning).

But now demand is down. Lower demand will probably be temporary until things
open up again. May people live in SF for the cultural aspects (bars, clubs,
theaters, restaurants). Once those open people will want to live there again.

~~~
kmonsen
Just to be clear, currently demand falls is addressing both global warming and
housing prices. But demand is a terrible way to fix things because it means a
lot of human suffering at the same time. So yes, taking away everyones money
is one way of solving expensive rents, but not the ideal way.

~~~
ghaff
There's taking away people's money but there's also just giving people more
flexibility in where they live. If everyone still wants to live in a
particular location regardless of any work requirements, that's one thing. But
if people are primarily there because they have to be that's another.

~~~
kmonsen
Totally agree, and it is a good thing if people who doesn't want to be there
doesn't need to anymore. But in general demand slumps are hard to fix and last
longer.

~~~
ghaff
I think there are a lot of (especially) younger people who are looking at this
through the lens of increased urbanization being inevitable. But the reality
is that most US cities were still losing population into the nineties.

When I graduated from grad school in the late 80s, basically none of my cohort
lived in Boston/Cambridge--including those whose jobs were in the city.
(Pretty much all of the tech industry jobs were in the suburbs/exurbs "Route
128")

So, yeah, if there's a mass exodus, even if somewhat transitory, the
restaurants and bars and shops will tend to be gone and it won't be easy to
refresh. And the people who moved out will be somewhat older and won't be
inclined to return and the younger generation won't really get the appeal.

------
nosequel
> According to Zumper, the median rental price for a one-bedroom apartment in
> San Francisco fell 11.8% year over year, from $3,720 to $3,280, beating
> May’s 9% drop. The survey also reports a 1% uptick in national rents, with
> the average median apartment in the U.S. renting for $1,229 in June.

With even the most hardcore "you must work IN the office" companies switching
to remote for at least another 6 months, and many probably staying that way, I
don't see how more people aren't flocking out of SF. 3x the rent and a
downtown slowly becoming
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamsterdam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamsterdam)
there doesn't seem much keeping people there. The old argument of, "but that's
where the jobs are" really isn't the case anymore.

