
Ask HN: Predictions for 2020 and the New Decade? - csomar
A new decade is coming! What are your predictions for the next year and this new decade. To keep things orderly, please try these guidelines:<p>- Use lists instead of long paragraphs.<p>- One prediction per list-item.<p>- Separate next year and next decade in two different lists.<p>Historical:<p>2010 (one decade predictions): https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=1025681<p>2019: https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=18753859<p>2018: https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=16007988<p>2017: none?<p>2016: https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=10809767<p>2015: https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=8822723<p>2014: https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=6994370<p>2013: none?<p>2012: https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=3395201<p>2011: https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=1970023<p>2010: https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=1025681
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codegeek
My bottomline prediction: World won't change as fast as we always predict.
Case in point [0] the prediction a decade ago on HN. Most of the items on that
page are way off but precisely the reason why it is so hard to predict the
future.

If I do have to add my guesses, I would say that:

\- AI/ML hype will fade off and won't really be as mainstream as we want it be
right now.

\- Crypto currency will still not be mainstream.

\- We will have driverless cars but not mainstream yet. Trucking jobs in the
US won't go away as Andrew Yang is predicting them to be.

\- China and may be even India (due to sheer size and open markets) to an
extent will further become more important in World Affairs and US will
continue to lose it superpower status even though US will still be very
significant overall.

\- Mainstream news outlets on TV will keep becoming less important as Indie
Media outlets on youtube will become more mainstream. Looking at you
CNN/MSNBC/FOX news etc.

\- Gig economy will become more prevalent. A lot of people will start doing
their own thing since they cannot find traditional jobs. Not always tech.
related but freelance industry will grow even further.

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681)

~~~
username90
Based of this thread it looks like people were a lot more hopeful about the
future 10 years ago than they are today. Back then smart phones were new, the
AI winter looked like it was over, Google had just started testing self
driving cars etc.

But today, Google is still working on the same self driving cars, we are still
using smart phones as our main handheld device, and while the AI breakthroughs
gave us chatbots and face recognition it hasn't made much progress since.

So to me it seems like the exciting years are over as the last decade was
probably the least exciting technology wise for a very long time. I'd say
we'll need a huge fundamental breakthrough for the next decade to not become
even less exciting.

------
bluGill
\- There will be a new series of books that captures the attention of
"everybody" and we talk about for the next 10 years

\- Children in parks will try to catch pigeons which will fly away

\- Coffee will be a very popular drink, except for places that drink tea where
tea will remain popular. There will be limited respect between the two groups
while they will claim not to understand the other.

\- There will be at least 3 different diet fads that become popular. The big
names will seamlessly switch between them despite the conflicts in some tenant
of the fad.

\- Some object/hobby will become the in thing that everybody has to have/do.
(generally the object will count as tools for the hobby)

\- Teens will rebel from something their parents did, claiming they are unique
while doing exactly the same rebel thing every other teen is doing.

\- Clothing styles will change in some subtle way that requiring stylish
people to replace their wardrobe.

\- People will try to escape reality and become addicted to mind/mood
alternating drugs.

\- Somebody will make millions on their "Jesus is coming" campaign despite
numerous claims that directly contradict the bible.

In short nothing major will change. If you are in the right place at the right
time and have the right [lack of] morals you can become rich from the above.

------
unraveller
\- Porch pirates will use mission impossible style deep fake masks to evade
the doorbell camera's tranquilizer darts

\- People start pushing empty prams around everywhere to avoid being
sacrificed by self-driving vans which are often looted for booty

\- large low-powered coloured e-paper screens that open like a scroll and
increase definition/fps based on current eye focus replace the TV and
smartphone

\- e-powered 1-man vehicles for the last mile take off and compete with
warehouse blimps in the sky that listen to your conversations via the
vibrating glass window about being out of milk and drop one of the pre-defined
care packages.

\- micro-dosing via skin absorption, a biohack to the smartwatch, but no one
will admit to doing it, it's part of the placebo effect, actively discouraging
it gets the biggest leg up from it.

------
simonh
Mostly things that won't happen:

* Most taxis won't be driverless, in fact fewer than 10% will be. Those that are will be geographically and destination limited.

* Most cars on the streets in most countries will still have internal combustion engines, though many may be in hybrids.

* There won't be any operational fusion reactors feeding electricity into the grid.

* There will be at least 10 Op Eds or analyst notes every year saying what Apple has to do to stay relevant.

* Apple won't do any of them and will still utterly dominate profits in at least 3 industry segments at the end of the decade.

* Best estimates for the Singularity place it 25 years in the future.

------
psv1
While you're thinking about your predictions, I recommend to have a glance at
the 2010 thread - it's a great mix of predictions that are:

\- hilariously wrong

\- things people will still predict today for the next decade

\- occasionally spot on

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rotterdamdev
2020-2021: the first major attack on the global TCP/IP stack, causing major
internet outages for regions of the western world lasting weeks/months.

Decade: nuclear war between India and Pakistan, or peace talks spearheaded by
China. If the later, this will mark the beginning of global Chinese
diplomatical sovereignity.

------
AnimalMuppet
For the decade:

No human-equivalent AI, though there are more AI systems that trespass on what
used to be "human only" territory.

No massive speedup in CPUs - just incremental gains. CPUs in 2030 have double
per-core performance of those of 2020.

At least one designer drug with enormous addictiveness destroys a large number
of peoples' lives.

------
codesternews
Stupid VR will rule the world. Humanity will get further away from reality.

