
Scientists say most likely number of contactable alien civilisations is 36 - Amorymeltzer
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jun/15/scientists-say-most-likely-number-of-contactable-alien-civilisations-is-36
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Amorymeltzer
Link to the paper (behind a paywall):
[https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/ab8225](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/ab8225)

Per the abstract:

>[T]here should be at least 36 (+175,-32) [communicating extra-terrestrial
intelligent (CETI)] civilizations within our Galaxy: this is a lower limit,
based on the assumption that the average lifetime, L, of a communicating
civilization is 100 yr (since we know that our own civilization has had radio
communications for this time). If spread uniformly throughout the Galaxy this
would imply that the nearest CETI is at most 17,000 (+33,600,-10,000 lt-yr
away and most likely hosted by a low-mass M-dwarf star, likely far surpassing
our ability to detect it for the foreseeable future, and making interstellar
communication impossible.

~~~
eindiran
I'd be interested to know if the paper discusses how many civilizations they
expect to exist in the Milky Way under the Weak Astrobiological Copernican
scenario.

On an unrelated note, I laughed pretty hard about the headline:

The conclusion of the article - supposing that there are 36 CETI civilizations
in our galaxy, then we are probably far enough away from them that
interstellar communication is impossible for the foreseeable future.

The conclusion of the headline editor: SCIENTIST SAYS that we can communicate
with 36 ALIEN civilizations RIGHT NOW!!!!

