

The Next Big Consumer Application Will Possibly Not Come From An Accelerator - Ataub24
http://alexstechthoughts.com/post/32195169760/the-next-big-consumer-application-is-most-likely-not

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zacharycohn
1\. Correlation != Causation.

2\. You just picked random companies that support your point.

3\. I don't understand the logic behind "accelerators slow you down." Most
accelerators encourage you to do a ton of customer validation and to pivot -
or ditch your idea completely - when necessary. By maintaining a fast paced
environment with a lot of mentors around, they help you move faster, not
slower.

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Ataub24
Have you gone through any accelerator programs? From some friends I hear the
mentorship can very much slow you down- constant meetings. Maybe they just did
it wrong, but I hear accelerator programs can slow you down in certain
scenarios.

Company's are not random. They are mainstream consumer apps. The next big
consumer app = mainstream. Does that not make sense?

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ChuckMcM
_"The next big consumer app = mainstream. Does that not make sense?"_

No it doesn't, that a big consumer app is considered 'mainstream' is an
artifact of the fact that app got marketshare, its a dependent variable, not
an independent variable.

Your claim is similar to ones that argue college is a waste of time, spend
that four years doing things instead of learning stuff you'll never use. The
fallacy of the college argument, and yours, is that structured learning has
benefit in information gained over time at the start which is unmatched by
unstructured learning.

Consider the time spent in an accelerator at those 'useless' mentoring
meetings, they are with folks who have done a lot of different things, seen
what is successful and what isn't, and more importantly know what traction
'feels' like when its happening. That lets one quickly learn the right stuff
without having to waste time chasing ideas which aren't really having an
impact.

I noticed that you backed off your argument a bit here: "I hear accelerator
programs can slow you down in certain scenarios." If you're being honest with
yourself then you can understand that "certain scenarios" is not "all
scenarios" and by that reasoning your thesis fails. By that reasoning you
would have to change your thesis "most likely" to maybe "possible".

If you want to reason about what makes a consumer app either a good fit or a
bad fit for an accelerator that would be good to talk about. What sort of
problems are ill suited to an accelerator environment and why? (and trust me,
meeting frequency is not a good metric) There are a lot of accelerators out
there [1], why not go through their funded projects and rank them
consumer/non-consumer (you will need to define consumer app fairly precisely I
suspect) and then bring some reasoning to the table that lets folks know how
you arrived at the conclusion you did and why you believe it. We'd love to
hear about it.

[1] <http://tech.co/top-startup-accelerators-ranked-2012-08>

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Ataub24
Your argument is logical. I will change "most likely" to "possibly."Most
likely is more sensational. Thanks for the comment. Also- I don't think
mentoring is useless and I think school is important.

------
bmr
1957: Future NBA superstars are unlikely to be black.

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ig1
Lets take a more scientific look at the YC generation of accelerators (which
significantly differed from earlier incubators).

Since 2008 there have been only six consumer startups founded that have hit
the billion dollar valuation mark: Instagram, Pinterest, Dropbox, Evernote,
Groupon and AirBnB (you might choose to exclude Dropbox and Evernote from the
consumer market).

Two of them are from YC, and Pinterest was founded by a YC alumni.

~~~
ig1
(correction: AirBnB was actually founded in 2007)

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nchlswu
1 - what's the proportion of incubators/accelerator companies are pursuing
consumer applications?

2 - it's very easy to pick home run successes that are rare to begin with.
It's relatively easy to crunch numbers to give the number of successes that
come out of an accelerator. It doesn't make sense to cherry pick those
successes to be compared to let alone conclude that they will essentially
reduce your chances. I'd guess that the odds about the same between
accelerator and non/accelerators wrt the success the author is talking about.

3 - I don't think the proposition makes much sense to begin with given how
accelerators are so trendy and may be of questionable quality. A note: this is
my anecdotal observation, I haven't taken a look at incubators/accelerators in
detail.

4 - Has anyone done any investigative work on where accelerator alumni have
gone? There are many other benefits to incubators that can't be quantified by
a binary outcome. I'd guess that in a good incubator (like YC), alumni are on
average, better off, for a variety of reasons

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mwww
I think the reason might be that people who are able to build "the next big
consumer app" just don't need an accelerator to start building. Just like
Steve Jobs didn't need an MBA from Harvard in order to build Apple.

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yesimahuman
I would say this is more a function of the improbability of social products
becoming mainstream than anything else. I don't think there is enough data to
draw any conclusions yet.

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tomasien
The only way it comes from an accelerator/incubator is if it built there, a-la
Reddit from YC. Reddit is quickly becoming something that should fit the list
at the beginning of this post (it's blowing up) and it was built during YC's
first class.

However, the odds of say, Twitter, joining an incubator as they were blowing
up seems unlikely.

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Ataub24
Yea- it's at the end of the post with other YC consumer apps that are
mainstream...

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jpdoctor
Original title: The Next Big Consumer Application _Will Possibly_ Not Coming
From An Accelerator

Linkbait title: The Next Big Consumer Application _Is Most Likely_ Not Coming
From An Accelerator

GMAFB.

Edit: Title changed, blood pressure returning to normal. Thanks mods.

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Ataub24
read comments. it changed because of feedback :)

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finkin1
I think going through an accelerator/incubator is seen as sort of a quick path
to success. They are short. You can get decent press right away. Great
products often require much more time, thought, and energy than
accelerators/incubators allow for. YC is definitely one of the best.

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interg12
This article doesn't really make a strong case for anything, it just states
the title as though its true.

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mattmanser
The guy's just picked random companies that supports his point, most of them
pre-incubator and made some silly conclusion out of it.

But of course YC doesn't count. Even though it was the first incubator by a
couple of years. So of course has had the first successes.

Coincidence perhaps?

Why is anyone upvoting this?

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mammalfriend
YC is by no means the first incubator. There were hundreds in the late 90's in
silicon valley. Lots of junk, and few that turned out big businesses. Some of
those big businesses failed in the .com crash simply because the capital
markets imploded (and others because their business had been over-valued).

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wilfra
YC is the Stanford, Harvard, Yale, Princeton, MIT and Caltech of accelerators,
all rolled into one. But that doesn't mean startups who can't get into YC are
wasting their time going through other accelerators anymore than students who
can't get into S/H/Y/P/M/C are wasting their time going to Berkeley or Cal
State Stanislaus or wherever they can get accepted. Ya, they'll have a lower
chance of success, but there will still be guys who go to liberal arts
colleges in Oregon - and dropout after a year - who change the World.

