
Netflix Is Going to Rule TV After All - yarapavan
http://www.wired.com/business/2014/01/turns-netflix-going-rule-tv
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jerf
As I recall it, Netflix's Immanent Demise was overblown in the first place.
They faced a couple of challenges and stumbled for a couple of quarters, and
Wired rushed to declare them Walking Dead. They failed to keel over dead on
schedule, and now apparently Wired, which just isn't much for middle ground,
declare them the inevitable winners of a battle that has hardly even started
yet.

This is filler; they are no more inevitable now than they were doomed a year
ago. It's still a rapidly changing landscape, they still own a lot of the
territory, and it's still very difficult to guess the future. (My only guess
is a negative one; the market is _not_ stable with every content company
owning their own streaming service, because consumers are not going to pay 15
bills a month for video content, no matter how cheap they are. _Someone 's_
going to aggregate, _somehow_. My guess about the how is something more like
an Amazon hybrid model of subscription + optional premium content, but Netflix
is putting up a good fight on the subscription-only side, so.... _shrug_.)

~~~
foobarian
The content licenses are a real pain. Maybe one of the aggregators will just
power through and have so much more content available that it will squeeze out
everything else until new content only signs up with the winner, without
strings attached.

The other day I was trying to binge watch a season of a broadcast TV show, so
I tried the On Demand thing on the FIOS cable box. Just 5 latest episodes
available. Fine, this dinosaur is dead anyway, so I go to Hulu Plus; surely
they will have the whole season, that's why you pay the sub, right? 2 latest
episodes available! WTF.

These incumbents are not competing with Netflix et al, they are actively
burning the subscriber base and encouraging them to switch. I think if they
put up a huge banner saying "Please don't use this site and go to Netflix
instead" I would probably spend more time there than now. Sad panda is sad.

~~~
hsitz
" so I go to Hulu Plus; surely they will have the whole season, that's why you
pay the sub, right? 2 latest episodes available! WTF. . . . These incumbents
are not competing with Netflix et al, they are actively burning the subscriber
base and encouraging them to switch."

As far as I know, Netflix doesn't have current season of TV shows at all. So
Hulu Plus and the cable 'on demand' services are mostly complementary to
Netflix, purely complementary if you buy Hulu Plus for access to current
season shows.

~~~
foobarian
Good point, but still; the experience is so frustrating that it's actually
worth waiting until the entire season becomes available on Netflix, Amazon,
etc. so you can watch it in peace.

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protomyth
When the cable money collapses, Disney, HBO/TimeWarner, etc. will just create
their own streaming service and charge for it while removing all content from
other services. Netflix will just be one streaming channel among many. They
will have their own content and probably the content from folks not big enough
to do their own channel (assuming Amazon doesn't start stealing that).

Netflix is still the biggest, but so was Blockbuster and then the game
changed. When cable rates go poof, the game will change again.

~~~
w1ntermute
That's why Netflix's goal is to become HBO faster than HBO can become Netflix.
Do you think it's that easy to set up a reliable online streaming service?
Those content companies (Disney, HBO, etc.) will go through a lot of trial and
error before they can figure it out. If Netflix capitalizes on that
opportunity to get people to watch their shows instead (presuming that they're
good shows), then they've definitely got a shot at become an online content
company.

~~~
protomyth
If you haven't noticed, all of the content companies[1] are doing the initial
work. Look at how many of them are now on devices such as Apple TV. Time
Warner / HBO has quite a lot of content they can stream.

I don't have a doubt Netflix will survive, but it will be one of many and
probably the Indy / small provider company, if Amazon doesn't run them over.

1) even MLB

~~~
w1ntermute
> If you haven't noticed, all of the content companies[1] are doing the
> initial work

And most of them suck ass. You can't stream an NBA game live without it
buffering the crap out of itself.

> if Amazon doesn't run them over.

Based on what Amazon has done so far, it doesn't stand a snowball's chance in
hell. They have no understanding of content - their recently released pilots
were horrible. You can let a bunch of tech guys up in Seattle make content
decisions.

~~~
gnoway
Their insistence at treating their prime streaming like just an aspect of the
normal purchasing view is also annoying. If I'm searching through shows, It
doesn't help me to see multiple seasons of the same show 'on the shelf,' both
SD and HD versions. It just takes longer to find what I want that way.

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georgespencer
It just isn't going to happen for Netflix in the medium term.

You have to believe that Google cares about TV and video content. They've made
so many moves in this direction: YouTube, movies and TV on Google Play, the
deal for Girls (or whichever show it is) to premiere on YouTube before
anywhere else…

The challenges Netflix has are three-fold as I see it:

1\. They only have enough cash at hand to do, what, five pieces of amazing
original programming each year? Six? The halo isn't big enough to make them
huge like YouTube is huge.

2\. Google has an insane amount of cash. They could really "unify the
division" by creating the first truly undisputed king of content streaming
(which would just be YouTube + licensed movies and TV shows with a premium
version and a heavily ad-supported version). They could also finance new
shows.

3\. Content owners can see Netflix's share price. As soon as they start doing
well the price will go up on content licenses. Unless Netflix negotiate 5, 10,
or 15 year terms they aren't going to be able to avoid arbitrary price hikes.

~~~
riggins
_Content owners can see Netflix 's share price. As soon as they start doing
well the price will go up on content licenses. Unless Netflix negotiate 5, 10,
or 15 year terms they aren't going to be able to avoid arbitrary price hikes._

this has been claimed for a couple of years now. It hasn't played out that way
so far. I haven't looked closely in 6 months but generally their content costs
have been flattish rather than a sharp escalation (this is after the ramp up
to make their initial content acquisitions).

Furthermore, I think there are 2 reasons why content providers won't be in a
great bargaining position.

1\. Part of what makes a show a success is the built in audience. Think
Friends or Seinfeld ... Thursday night prime time slot used to guarantee an
audience in the millions. The networks don't have that advantage anymore. It's
Netflix that has a guaranteed audience of millions.

2\. If content providers push for major price increases, Netflix has the
option of producing their own content, which they've shown they are capable
of.

Netflix has been disciplined in their content spending. I don't think content
providers will be in a position to change that.

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swombat
I really want to like Netflix, but in the UK I've now switched most of my
movie-viewing to Now TV. Now TV seems to operate on the same model, except
they have much fewer of the "movies that hardly anyone wants to see" category,
and much more of the "recent movies that you want to see" category.

As a result, at the moment I'm paying for both Now TV and Netflix, but when I
want to watch a movie I'm much more likely to go to Now TV, so maybe next time
I sign up for those things I'll get just Now TV (or an equivalent player that
actually has content licences to good things).

~~~
cdash
I am not sure what content has in the UK but I can tell you that Netflix has
become much more focused on TV shows than they have on movies in the US and I
don't mean Netflix original series only.

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kriro
I enjoy Netflix quite a bit more than Hulu+...so much so that I don't care
about watching recent stuff anymore and gladly wait for a bit.

Hulu+ requires you to link with your cable provider to watch a lot of the new
stuff anyways which is a no go for me since...the point is not having a cable
provider anymore.

Also...entire series simply don't stream if you're on Linux. Community and
Linux-Flash don't work for example, something about their crappy DRM.

Netflix isn't exactly Linux friendly (Silverlight) but the Wine Netflix-
Desktop at least works for all their content.

Antagonizing HBO isn't smart imo. Pretty juvenile comments.

~~~
notatoad
Antagonizing HBO wouldn't be smart if netflix had anything to lose, but they
don't. HBO and Netflix have no relationship, and there is virtually zero
chance of any HBO show ever coming to Netflix as their relationship currently
stands.

They aren't taunting HBO because they want anything from HBO. They're taunting
HBO because they want consumers to see them taunting HBO. It's just marketing.

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guelo
I'm still sceptical. If it costs $100 million to produce a quality show season
it doesn't seem like Netflix can produce more than a handful per year. Is that
enough content to keep people subscribed if Hollywood keeps taking away more
and more of their stuff?

~~~
gumby
I agree they can't fill their pipeline alone. Yet the studios have Netflix by
the gonads since the studios control who gets to see what when.

You can see this from Netflix's crappy selection of streaming videos compared
to their selection of DVDs. Not to mention that films mysteriously appear and
disappear from the streaming library due to license expirations.

No way Netflix would want to do that on their own.

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Oculus
The real power Netflix has is they're at a point where they'll decide the
entire future of an industry. TV-advertising will have to adapt to a world in
which most people watch Netflix. In House of Cards they did quite a few
product placements, but I don't think that's sufficient to absorb the multi-
billion $ industry that advertising is. It'll be interesting to see where
Netflix decides to carry the torch.

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sergiotapia
My biggest fear is other networks going online and removing their content from
Netflix. If it comes to that there's no way IN HELL I'm paying for 5+ online
services. Fuck that.

I absolutely love Netflix, let's hope they manage to keep ahold of their
catalog.

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doug3465
Someone please help me understand how HBO, Showtime, and now even Netflix can
make so much quality programming and it seems all the networks can do is
complete shit. Do they just not give a fuck anymore?

~~~
vinceguidry
The networks have the problem of having everything they make have to have
broad appeal. There's censorship rules they have to abide by. Subscription
services don't have this problem, they can make anything.

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zackmorris
I love Dish Network but with them and DirecTV charging upwards of $90 a month
for a couple of DVR receivers, they are forcing me to consider an internet-
only solution (and Dish started out so affordable!). I just got a rate
increase of $5 a month in the mail. I get the feeling though that it's not
their idea, that the stations call the shots. So I applaud Netflix for keeping
their price so low but wonder how long it will last.

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jonathansizz
I don't understand why Netflix aren't also making their own regular
nightly/weekly shows (topical comedy, politics, current events, etc.), such as
you find on HBO and Comedy Central. They could make several of those type of
shows on a relatively modest budget, and it'd give viewers greater reason to
continue subscribing.

~~~
samatman
Topical comedy based on current events from Netflix?

With Kevin Spacey?

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Cards_(U.S._TV_series)](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Cards_\(U.S._TV_series\))

I feel the idea of releasing the whole 'season' at once is perfect for the
Netflix model. No need to drag it out: Netflix knows their core base likes to
marathon binge on good TV.

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stcredzero
What of net neutrality?

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jgalt212
NFW. b/c the best stuff on Netflix is only available on DVD and not via
streaming.

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leoplct
Zapping.io has great potential too

