
Oil Prices Jump Most on Record After Saudi Strike - divbyzer0
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-15/oil-prices-jump-19-after-attack-cuts-saudi-arabian-supplies
======
mtw
I can't wait for electric vehicles to be more widespread so we would be more
independent from the sh*tshow in the Middle East

~~~
Brakenshire
We’re just entering into a cycle which will vastly reduce the importance of
the oil market. If the price goes up more people switch irretrievably to
electric vehicles, if the price goes down investment suffers. And every year
the cost of batteries falls by 20%. BNP Paribas recently estimated that over
25 years oil will have to come down to $9 per barrel to compete with the cost
of delivering the same amount of energy to vehicles using batteries and
electricity. Oil is just going to become one chemical feedstock amongst many,
important but no more so than other major commodities.

~~~
flurdy
Until we figure out better alternatives to plastic (or rather are more
incentivised to use alternatives), and other by-products, then we will be
stuck with our total dependence on petrochemicals.

True, more use of EVs will reduce oil demand somewhat and lower prices. Though
that again just means less investment in exploration and research, and
temporarily seal low yield oil fields, we will still pump more or less the
same enormous amount of oil we do today, if not more due to ever-increasing
Earth population.

~~~
Brakenshire
Petrochemical feedstock only makes up 10-20% of oil demand, and road
transportation 50%. And there are multiple different sources for those
feedstocks. As I say, oil will remain an important commodity, but its days as
the pre-eminent commodity, and a key driver of geopolitics, are already
numbered.

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carlsborg
At $59.7 WTI is just back to where it was in early July, and some distance
away from the highs of April ($65.x). And the futures curve is in
backwardation - markets are pricing Jun 2020 futures at $55.55 with a mere
$2.83 jump because of these attacks.

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lnsru
If it was really a drone attack, it shows that’s drones are unstoppable. There
should be a huge market opportunity for anti drone equipment right now. Looks
like, that soft solutions as [https://www.rohde-
schwarz.com/lv/solutions/aerospace-defense...](https://www.rohde-
schwarz.com/lv/solutions/aerospace-defense-security/security/law-enforcement-
public-safety/countering-drones/countering-drones-theme_233578.html) do not
really work. Maybe it’s time for commercial version of Israel’s Iron Dome. Or
something from USA:
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phalanx_CIWS](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phalanx_CIWS)

~~~
avip
There _is_ a commercialized version of iron-dome, baring the noninteresting
name drone-dome [0]

And there are multitude of other players in this field* [1]

* _examples are from Israel because I already know the names so the search is faster, surely there are multiple global providers of similar systems_

[0] [https://www.rafael.co.il/worlds/air-missile-defense/c-uas-
co...](https://www.rafael.co.il/worlds/air-missile-defense/c-uas-counter-
unmanned-aircraft-systems/)

[1] [https://convexum.com](https://convexum.com)

~~~
lnsru
But is there enough laser energy to change the course of fixed wing drone? I
am afraid, that such drone shot by laser will still deliver explosives to
intended location. Of course, quadcopter has no chance against it.

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dr_dshiv
I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but some people are going to make a lot of
money from this. Who makes the most? Unclear. Even Saudi Arabia benefits, if
it results in persistently higher prices and greater geopolitical support.

~~~
rapsey
What you said is entirely meaningless. Someone is always making a lot of
money. Any situation results in winners and losers.

~~~
bb123
By your logic no one should ever question the financial motivations of anyone,
ever. It seems completely reasonable to me to question who stands to gain the
most from something like this.

~~~
rapsey
I was replying to the first statement. You are talking about the second and
putting words in my mouth.

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nkkollaw
That's only 5% though at ~$70/barrel. Didn't it use to be $100/barrel and
civilization didn't end?

Seems to me to be sensationalism to get clicks.

~~~
cf141q5325
And to gather support for a war against Iran.

~~~
jwr
Exactly. I don't understand why everybody in the US seems to just accept that
there needs to be a war against Iran. How is the US endangered by Iran?

These strikes were on oil production facilities of the Saudi kingdom, which is
known for beheading people, murdering journalists, and supporting the 9/11
attacks. The US is one of the top oil producers and has its own oil, as well
as strategic reserves. Why does everyone accept that the US has to "retaliate"
or wage war against Iran? Why is Iran even being named at this point?

I think it is sad that we are allowing this to happen. Instead of making sure
we don't completely destroy our planet and go extinct, we accept our
politicians' war-drumming as a fact of life.

~~~
bayesian_horse
Trump killed the Iran deal. Iran has to get out of their sanctions somehow, so
they have to start their nuclear program again. And before they finish their
first bomb, or immediately after the first successful test, Israel has to
attack them. And if the US doesn't want Iran to crush Israel (Iran probably
wouldn't win, but they can devastate Israel), the US (and others) have to help
Israel.

Trump had a choice, the rest of the path to war is almost inevitable.

~~~
cf141q5325
Israel has to do nothing of the sort, they have more then enough submarines
carrying nuclear weapons to scare off any first strike. Its the sole reason
why Germany sold them at a highly subsidized price in the first place. Neither
does the US have to support yet another war of aggression. The only thing
nuclear weapons for Iran would change is that they wont be the victim of yet
another illegal "intervention" in the region. Northkorea showed that rather
clearly. Looking at the despots, warcriminals and aggressors in the region who
openly talk about annihilating Iran, not forgetting the attrocities of the
Irak Iran war, its a rather reasonable idea.

Lets please not sugarcoat or justify warcrimes and remember that a lot of the
people at Nurnberg were there for starting a war of aggression.

~~~
bayesian_horse
In reality there is a large international consensus that Iran must not get
nukes, and that such weapons would be an existential threat to Israel. The
Israelis definitely see it that way, and it's hard to blame them. The question
of who is the aggressor is pretty muddled because Iran has threatened to
annihilate Israel and is attacking all sorts country's assets, territory or
people all the time anyway.

Deterrence is a nice idea. When the opponent is rational, and the weapons in
question are not likely to depopulate the region. The Mullahs in Iran can not
be counted on to be rational actors. They also can't be counted on to keep in
power.

I'd have much preferred the old solution of delaying their nuclear breakout,
all the while their prosperity and development reaches a point where the
Mullahs lose their power.

~~~
cf141q5325
>In reality there is a large international consensus that Iran must not get
nukes

As long as its not based on a resolution of the UN security council that means
nothing. Might makes right isnt part of international law of war. Just because
we have actors who cant be held responsible for their illegal behavior at the
moment doesnt mean we should just ignore international law altogether.
Starting a war of aggression is still wrong and voters shouldnt be complicit
in such actions by authorizing politicians to do so. Our continuous failure to
do so in democracys sets an absolute horrible precedent, in which the voting
population of a country is responsible for warcrimes. Might I remind everyone
that that was the pretext for atrocities like the British punitive
bombardments of German cities during WW2 or, since we had the anniversary last
week, al Quaidas pretext for 9/11?

Ignoring international law sets a horrible precedent. If your side isnt
adhering to it, the opposite side will neither. This warmongering risks yet
again the few achievements we as humanity have made in the last century. I
myself really dont want to see a future where i have to worry about state
sponsored bio terrorism in response to a neocolonial might is right approach
of my government.

~~~
bayesian_horse
Even a resolution of the UN security council means nothing.

I wasn't talking about international law. Israel is willing to go to the mat
on this, and apparently convinced this is a life-or-death issue. A lot of
other countries, including the only superpower, NATO and the EU agree or at
the very least don't want to let Israel be destroyed if Israel chose to stop
Iran's nuclear program. As far as international consensus goes, that's pretty
strong.

"Aggression" is quite an arbitrary definition. Iran has threatened Israel with
annihilation for decades, and occasionally they tried. They do/did have a
nuclear program, they certainly have chemical weapons. They keep attacking
shipping and causing further armed conflict around the region...

"International Law", which today mainly consists of Russia and China
sabotaging everyone else, is not going to stop Israel from defending itself.

~~~
cf141q5325
>I wasn't talking about international law.

I know, I was. I dont care much for the semantics of how warcrimes are tried
to be painted as "the right thing to do".

> War is essentially an evil thing. Its consequences are not confined to the
> belligerent states alone, but affect the whole world. To initiate a war of
> aggression, therefore, is not only an international crime; it is the supreme
> international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains
> within itself the accumulated evil of the whole.

If you forgo international law in favor of might is right what you do is
cultivating terrorism as the victims get radicalized and have no other way to
left to respond. And thats not a new insight. Al Quaida was rather vocal about
drone strikes and the atrocities in Abu-Ghuraib and Guantanamo being the best
recruitment tools they could have ever asked for. And lets also not forget
that the war on terror only recently cumulated into the emergence of ISIS,
with the rank and file of Saddams dismantled army being there for the
creation. People cant be so thick that they believe the phrase "They hate us
for our Freedom". "They" hate us for invading their countries with our
politicians and soldiers acting with impunity. I mean the US even sanctioned
the ICC for gods sake. All those "necessary evils" breaking international law
are only making the situation worse.

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wiz21c
Is it me or I read a while ago that there are vast reserves in the US and
other places (accumulated when oil was cheap) and so, a little strike here and
there should not be a problem ?

Or is it the price of the "futures" (if I get that concept right) that goes up
?

~~~
sytelus
Only 5% of world oil supply is suspected to be affected but oil futures have
gone up by 15%. This is the result of speculation that causes initial large
spike and then subsequent oscillations to a stable value.

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whaddawhat
Is there a good source tallying up the (refined) oil reserves? How long until
a 5% decrease in production really propagates to the supply?

~~~
Tade0
The norm seems to be to have at least three months' worth of supplies, so the
question is rather how quick can those sources return online?

If that is not poised to happen anytime soon, the prices should go up almost
immediately.

So far I think we had a mixed response.

~~~
seventhtiger
According to WSJ, Saudi Aramco says they will have 30% of lost capacity back
on Monday.

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croh
Hope it helps Venezuela.

~~~
discordance
It would probably line the pockets of Venezuelan plutocrats rather than help
Venezuelan people if it did have any affect.

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sudoaza
So Yemeni fighters did more to fight climate change than Greta Thunberg, kudos

~~~
bayesian_horse
The oil is burning, however, releasing all the CO2 at once.

~~~
seventhtiger
The fire was controlled within hours.

~~~
bayesian_horse
Then that oil will find its way into the economy anyway.

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tomerbd
My parents were born in Yemen in hebrew "Teimani"

