
Facts Still Matter, but They Don't Change Many Voters' Minds - Bostonian
https://reason.com/2020/01/10/facts-still-matter-but-they-dont-change-many-voters-minds/
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vanniv
Like so many articles and papers of this sort, the headlines and conclusions
make claims that the actual evidence can't back up.

In this particular case, they analyzed two particular "lies" from the 2016
Trump campaign.

First, Trump claimed that there was a rising tide of violent crime -- and
pointed to a 17% increase in the homicide rate in the 50 largest cities. This
was "debunked" by the statement that the FBI had found that the nationwide
murder rate had increased, but was below the level of 10 years before.

First, that _is_ an increase in the murder rate (actually, 20% more murders
per capita than just 2 years before), and second, Trump didn't make a claim in
any way related to the murder rate when compared specifically with 1991 (the
year chosen by the paper to "prove" the lie). He made a claim about violent
crime, and specifically about the homicide rate in the largest cities.

Then, the article goes on to "debunk" a second "lie" \-- this time about jobs
leaving Michigan and Ohio. The "proof" that this is a lie is that, after
decades of decline, there was indeed a modest uptick going on at the moment
that Trump spoke. As if 75,000 new jobs in 2016 can make up for the almost
600,000 Michigan jobs (over 10% of the labor force) that had been lost from
1999 through 2014.

With "fact checking" like that, it's hardly surprising that the "fact
checking" didn't change people's minds

