
Nowcasting and forecasting the potential spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak - zhte415
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext
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dzdt
The key finding in that paper is downright scary:

 _Given that 2019-nCoV is no longer contained within Wuhan, other major
Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks. Large cities
overseas with close transport links to China could also become outbreak
epicentres, unless substantial public health interventions at both the
population and personal levels are implemented immediately. Independent self-
sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because
of substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of
large-scale public health interventions. Preparedness plans and mitigation
interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally._

Essentially, they find a pandemic is at least somewhat likely and everyone
should be preparing for that outcome.

