

Android Will Be Number 2 Mobile Operating System Worldwide by Year-End - Garbage
http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/android_will_be_number_2_mobile_operating_system_worldwide_by_2010.php

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cryptoz
While the Year of the Linux Desktop may forever be a joke, 2010 is the Year of
Linux on the Small Computer you Carry With You Everywhere.

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jonknee
And the Small Computer you Carry With You Everywhere is the new Desktop so in
the end Linux will get there.

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jacquesm
If and when android tablets are going to be sold in numbers the 'small
computer' may not even be all that small.

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cryptoz
I think Chrome OS tablets and netbooks/desktops are more likely to succeed
than Android tablets actually. They both run the Linux kernel so for this
discussion perhaps the point is moot.

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brownleej
I've never understood the point of these marketshare prediction pieces. What
does it matter if some form of Android runs on more phones? Who actually
cares? I know that emphasizing the horse race drives up page views, but is it
actually worthwhile news?

Market share numbers for Android have to be interpreted differently. A phone
can run Android without using any Google services, or running any third-party
Android apps. This will become more common as Android becomes more popular on
low-end devices, as this article predicts. If a phone doesn't run Google
services, then it's not generating any more revenue for Google than a non-
Android smartphone. If it's not running third-party apps, then it's not
relevant for developers deciding which system to invest in.

On desktop systems, we have a clear idea of what market share means. A higher
Windows market share means more revenue for Microsoft, and a better return for
their investors. It also means a larger market for third party developers. The
same can be said of Mac OS, and even Linux, to an extent. It doesn't work for
iOS and Android. I think we need a better metric than market share when
evaluating the mobile market.

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jacquesm
It helps if you are not large enough to support both platforms. Even though
yesterdays relaxation of the app store rules goes a long way towards making it
possible to run the same app on both (that will never be the 'optimal'
solution on either platform though).

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mjfern
A big question for me is what are the implications for Apple iOS given the
quick diffusion of the Android OS. Will Apple iOS and the iPhone go the way of
the Macintosh? A niche player in a very big market?

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cmer
Once the iPhone is available on more networks, I can see these numbers
changing DRASTICALLY.

Here in Canada, the iPhone is available on all carriers and you rarely see an
Android phone. The iPhone totally dominates the market. Most smart phones are
iPhones and Blackberrys.

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cryptoz
It's pretty hard to buy an Android phone in Canada actually. I live in
Montreal and I'm an iPhone 3G owner, and for the last month or so every time I
walk by a phone kiosk in a mall, or a Bell or Rogers store, I ask if they sell
Android phones. The answer is usually "No", but occasionally "Yes". I think
Bell is the only company that actually let me look at an Android phone itself,
all others have told me that I'd have to buy one without seeing it first.

It's almost like the carriers here are trying to hide the Android phones.
Anyway, I am certain that low Android adoption in Canada has more to do with
it being difficult to get than about consumer desire.

If a developer and nerd who _knows_ about Android (me, for example) has a hard
time buying one, think about the average consumer. There's _no way_ an average
Joe would buy an Android phone in Canada over an iPhone.

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smokinn
I've been trying to buy the Samsung Galaxy S for a week but they've been
completely sold out in all of Montreal and Laval until today. This afternoon I
finally found a FutureShop that had one.

And they refused to sell it to me.

The girl at the counter said that because it's such a popular phone they only
sell it with 3 year contracts.

I bought the at&t version on ebay a few hours ago but still, it's ridiculously
hard to get an Android phone whereas iPhones are everywhere and pushed hard.

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jan_g
Really interesting. Here in Slovenia (Europe), iphone is not even officially
available for purchase (people that want it, mostly go to Italy to buy it). On
the other hand, Android is everywhere. Htc desire, Samsung Galaxy S, SE
experia x10, Motorola Milestone ... you name it. And people buy them a lot.

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protomyth
It seems they are not counting iPod touches / iPads. For a developer, total
ecosystem size and probability that owners will buy apps is a little more
important.

On a tangent, Nintendo Wii had really good sales numbers, but I wonder if the
number of games bought per console was around the same amount as the PS/3 or
XBox 360? I have my doubts. I think the game console market shares is a more
probably predictor of phone market share than PC sales (i.e. no highlander).

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bcrawl
The article clearly mentioned, "mobile operating system". iOS powers iphone,
ipod, ipad, etc.

On a tangent, there hasnt been much talk about how the corporate policies have
evolved since the smartphone era. I bet we will see companies rolling out
custom android OS deployed on stock hardware such as EVO given out to
employees, with restricted permissions and access.

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protomyth
Well, I would dispute the numbers then. It doesn't look at all like the iPod
touch is really given consideration.

I could see that if Dell was a bigger android player, but it really takes a
vendor with sales / support leading the charge. HP would be a probable except
for the Palm purchase.

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diego_moita
Nobody in HN pays attention when you say that Apple doesn't really matter that
much, but I'll try it anyway: Apple's share in the smartphone market is too
small and decreasing. Source
<http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-20015799-94.html>

The real contenders are Android and Symbian. Blackberry is small but seems
stable. Windows 7 might become a surprise. Apple will not lead the pack.

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rbanffy
Symbian is dead - or will be as soon as dumbphones die. That leaves iOS and
Android and, perhaps, RIM. For WinMo 7 to be measurable, Microsoft will have
to pull one heck of a miracle.

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credo
Given the iPhone's exclusivity with AT&T in the US, Android's US growth isn't
surprising.

However, it is interesting to see Gartner worldwide projections. Does anyone
have links to Android vs iPhone market-share-data for countries where they are
both available on all/most carriers ?

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keithwarren
I always get a laugh out of people who get excited about this, I think the far
more interesting statistic would be stickiness factors - once you are on a
phone platform, how likely are you to stay. For example, what percentage of
people get an iPhone and then when their 2 year contract expires - get another
iPhone because they love it (despite AT&T). It is hard to judge Android in
that context right now because for all the noise it has made in the past year
it is still relatively new in the scope of phone devices and carrier
contracts. I think RIM has been pretty strong historically in this kind of
metric and iPhone has proven well here too.

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jsm386
On Stickiness - It doesn't look good for RIM (this was back in March):

Some 40% of Blackberry users, according to CrowdScience, prefer the iPhone as
their next smartphone purchase. Even more, some 32% of Blackberry users said
that they would drop their Crackberry for the latest Android offering, the
Nexus One.

[http://thenextweb.com/mobile/2010/03/15/blackberry-users-
iph...](http://thenextweb.com/mobile/2010/03/15/blackberry-users-iphone-
android-envy-report/)

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keithwarren
Unless Google gets a handle on consistency in the user experience then this
wont last long. I love my EVO and left iPhone for it but the 3rd party app
market is crap and I feel like I have a phone with multiple personalities.

