
NetFlix Everywhere: Sorry Cable, You're History  - raghus
http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazine/17-10/ff_netflix
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mrshoe
Like most people here, I would love to cancel my cable TV and TiVo
subscriptions and just get all my content on demand. However, aside from
streaming every movie and TV show, Netflix/iTunes/whatever also needs to nail
these two features:

1) Live events. Sports, breaking news, presidential inaugurations, etc.

2) Same day for new TV episodes. I don't want to find out what happened in The
Office at the water cooler the next day.

The other hurdle is that the cable companies practically have a monopoly on
broadband in many areas. I can already see how the call to Comcast will go.

    
    
        "You're on the special TV+internet plan, which is $99/month." 
    
        "OK, I just want internet now, so cancel the TV portion."
    
        "No problem, that brings your monthly bill to $98/month."
    
        ....
    

Wonderful.

~~~
SwellJoe

        "You're on the special TV+internet plan, which is $99/month." 
    
        "OK, I just want internet now, so cancel the TV portion."
    
        "No problem, that brings your monthly bill to $98/month."
    

This is actually accurate. My cable Internet plan is $68 per month with
Comcast. To get basic cable television would cost one dollar more (and yet I
still don't want it, since I don't own a TV; which was stunning to the
salesperson). I hate Comcast.

~~~
jsares
That's because if they charge you the extra dollar they get to count you as a
customer to the advertisers.

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prat
I think if the cable industry had a platform for developers to make apps (like
on iphone/android etc), the cable software could have been much better. Look
at time-warner/comcast/at&t interface - they all suck so much yet there is no
one to tell them the first thing about good design or functionality.

I think it is inevitable that this would change in the next few years (with
entrants like apple or google in cable business) and you would have all the
functionality of netflix on cable. This would be the end of dvds altogether
and netflix would die as a business model just like blockbuster is dying today
and video tapes died back in time.

~~~
mikeryan
They do, there are two but they're just starting to get traction.

tru2way is a standardized Java stack for set top boxes.

EBIF is a scaled down interactive TV software for legacy boxes that can't do a
full java stack. It's just starting to get deployed.

Actually and Verizon is doing their own Lua based widget platform. But tru2way
and EBIF are standardized so those will be run on multiple cable co's.

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DannoHung
Netflix instant watch is such a killer feature. If they could arrange
concurrent live broadcasts through Instant Watch, I'd even consent to watching
commercials.

~~~
smokinn
With a combination of Hulu for TV and Netflix for movies, live broadcasts are
the only thing cable has left going for it. Once sports events are broadcasted
over the internet as well cable TV will have been thoroughly supplanted.

~~~
wmf
HBO/Showtime are also a problem if you're into that sort of thing.

~~~
philwelch
People already pay extra for HBO and Showtime. I really don't see any barrier
to having people pay to stream HBO and Showtime rather than add it to their
cable bill.

~~~
wmf
Sure, _if that was offered_.

<http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118008861.html>

"Pay TV outlets have responded by ramping up their proprietary video-on-demand
services and keeping a tight rein on the availability of their shows on
outside platforms. They aim to get subscribers hooked on the ease and
convenience of using their services ... and keep them hooked."

Translation: You want HBO, you _must_ have cable. Bummer.

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nobody_nowhere
The irony is that Netflix sees its top near-term competitor as RedBox, not the
cable companies. Netflix has effectively eliminated (or at least hamstrung)
Blockbuster and all of the other rental stores as predicted, and now they're
going head to head with a kiosk company going after the value-conscious
segment of the market. I find that fascinating. Slay the giant, and a little
micro version of it pops up to nip at your heels.

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SwellJoe
I just signed up for NetFlix this past weekend, and set it up on the XBox I
bought to play Rock Band. It's dead awesome. The instant stuff is mostly what
convinced me to sign up (though the availability of some stuff that can't be
streamed anywhere currently is also a benefit).

I've been using Hulu and Amazon Unbox (both of which I wish would come to
XBox!) and love them both. Netflix doesn't _quite_ match the Amazon
experience, as far as video quality goes, but the selection is getting better
(I'd canceled NetFlix about 1.5 years ago, because I wasn't watching DVDs
anymore, and the streaming selection was dramatically worse than Hulu, but
that lack of content begun to change).

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mikeryan
The Roku box is flat out an awesome deal.

That being said there's a whole next generation of TV's with internet access
where you don't even need another box. I have a new LG that has both Netflix
and Vudu (pay per play on-demand service). It also has the new Yahoo Widget
engine and can connect over my home network to watch videos off my media
server.

On Thursday at the Intel Developer Forum they are going to be announcing some
really cool advances on the TV front.

~~~
wmf
TVs last 10 years; do you want to bet that "Yahoo Widget engine" will still be
awesome in 2019? I'd rather have the box.

~~~
SwellJoe
I doubt current generation TVs will last 10 years. They are now more like
computers than traditional home electronics, and the computer life cycle is
_dramatically_ shorter. I'd be surprised if TVs bought today average even
seven years. It'll probably be about five. They're getting cheaper, bigger,
more efficient, and more capable, with every generation.

Then again, 1080p is likely to be the maximum useful resolution for at least
ten years (since most current "HD" content sources are actually 480 or 720),
so maybe things will slow down once everyone has 1080p-capable TVs.

~~~
wmf
_I doubt current generation TVs will last 10 years._

And that's a bad thing that we shouldn't encourage IMO. I intentionally bought
a "dumb" 1080p TV so that it would last. Since an "obsolescence inside"
warning label for smart TVs isn't likely to catch on, maybe the cheaper/dumber
TVs should be marketed as "future-proof" or "built to last".

~~~
SwellJoe
I made no judgment call on whether it's a good thing. I don't think it is, but
what I think is good isn't generally what the market does (otherwise everyone
would be vegetarian, never wear baseball caps except when playing baseball or
driving an 18-wheeler, and "Hummer" would not refer to a vehicle).

I just think technology in televisions have evolved to be more like
televisions, and the cost/capability curve is shaping up somewhat similarly (I
guess more similarly to computer monitors, but those still evolve much faster
than TVs and are upgraded far more frequently; I replace my monitor about
every 36 months, which is slightly less often than I buy a PC and about the
same frequency as I replace my laptop).

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samg
One thing I'm struck by is how willing Hastings is to kill a a feature or
product that isn't quite ready. They wait until the timing is right and then
change the game. "No" (or, "not yet") is often the better answer.

