

Mobile will be bigger than you think - rpbertp13
http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-mary-meekers-internet-presentation-from-web-20-2009-10#mobile-will-be-bigger-than-you-think-1

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haseman
Woah there. This is the kinda stuff we saw in the early dot-com days. Mobile
will be big, but there are some huge hurdles to get over...just off the top of
my head:

1-Bandwidth limitations. Have you tried using AT&T in San Francisco?

2-Divergent platforms: I write mobile software for a living and I'd say about
60% of my time is spent making the same software work on a different device.
This is ruthlessly inefficient and I've yet to see anything (aside from the
single resolution iPhone) to address this issue.

3- User Interface: Small screens, small keyboards.

Mobile will be big, but it's got problems, and if too much VC is poured in now
we'll build up a market that can't be sustained. It's already happened, in
some ways, with the iPhone marketplace.

Easy does it.

~~~
ars
> Bandwidth limitations.

This is going to be a big problem - the simple physics of it, means it's much
more limited than wired.

> I write mobile software for a living

I always wondered about that. Do you write native apps, or is it some kind of
HTML? I see so many: WAP, WML, XHTML-MP. Which do I use if I want to get
started?

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haseman
I personally write native apps. J2ME for most low end AT&T phones and
blackberries. Brew (A SDK straight out of the 80's built on non-static C) for
Verizon. Java on Android for the Google phones and, of course, Objective C on
Mac OS for iPhones.

I'll work with any 3 of these platforms in a given day. 2 if I'm lucky, 1 if
there's a looming deadline ;-)

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joecode
Overall an interesting slide-show, though it contains some silly points, such
as:

o "New Computing Cycles Supported by 10X More Devices"

[The graph is extremely artificial. An extrapolation based on 4 made up
points. And really, the growth in units of computers can be better explained
by increasing market potential (i.e. cheaper, smaller => more users), not just
more devices multiplying like so many rabbits gone rampant.]

o "Apple market share / impact should surprise on the upside for at least the
next 1-2 years."

["should surprise"---what does that even mean? What if it doesn't surprise?
Would that also be a surprise?]

~~~
nfnaaron
_["should surprise"---what does that even mean? What if it doesn't surprise?
Would that also be a surprise?]_

It means that they are expected to exceed expectations. HTH. :)

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joezydeco
You should clarify. "Expectations that are set by people that have no idea
what Apple is really doing internally"

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CSunday
Of course mobile will be BIG! ___The signs are everywhere_ __

