
WHO: COVID-19 in 29 countries last Monday, now 56 - bookofjoe
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/28/810452948/who-says-risk-of-covid-19-is-now-very-high-at-a-global-level
======
DenisM
> "We do not see evidence as yet that the virus is spreading freely in
> communities," the WHO director-general said.

No longer true: CDC Confirms Possible Instance of Community Spread of COVID-19
in U.S.

[https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/s0226-Covid-19-sprea...](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/s0226-Covid-19-spread.html)

~~~
bhouston
Only 2 so far. I think there is a chance the us can avoid significant spread.

~~~
kansface
To the best of my knowledge (and not trying my to incite panic), there are
only 200 test kits in the entire state of CA. The official numbers are
meaningless given the inability to actually test. Why do you believe the US
will be able to quarantine the entire Bay Area?

~~~
altcognito
There are no concentrations of flu and respiratory problems according to
hospital case managers. Clusters aren’t likely to stay hidden for very long,
even without kits. I don’t think the goal is to quarantine entire regions,
just to slow it down by limiting groups of people in affected areas.

~~~
xiphias2
Of course not. Did you see the article of a person being billed $3000 for a
coronavirus test?

Testing it should be free (based on symptoms) if US wants to stop the disease
from spreading.

~~~
_bxg1
One of the joys of lacking a real healthcare system

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jacquesm
Right now it is all about slowing down the onset of the eventual peak. Any
delaying action will give healthcare systems in countries that are really
working on preparations (and they all should be) time to get more capacity in
place. The sooner that peak hits the harder it will be, the more people will
die.

------
zaroth
_On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the
currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%. In another article
in the Journal, Guan et al. report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with
laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease
severity.

If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases
is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality
rate may be considerably less than 1%.

This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may
ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a
case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to
those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which
have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively._

— New England Journal of Medicine, Feb 28, 2020

[https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?query=rec...](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?query=recirc_curatedRelated_article)

~~~
senordevnyc
_If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases
is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality
rate may be considerably less than 1%._

Well sure, if one assumes that, you can easily make yourself feel better. But
is there a specific reason to believe this? The widespread contact tracing and
testing in SK, Singapore, and Italy are not comforting. If there was a huge
number of asymptomatic cases, wouldn’t they be finding them?

~~~
zaroth
The point is that the fatality rate depends on the denominator chosen.

Choosing a denominator of only people with COVID who go on to develop
pneumonia, results in a rate of 2%.

Choosing a denominator of all people with laboratory confirmed cases of COVID,
results in a rate of 1.4%.

Clearly a denominator of “everyone who was infected with COVID” is larger than
the denominator of “everyone with a laboratory confirmed case”.

The question is, how much larger? The number of reports of asymptomatic and
mild cases which are asked _not_ to go to a hospital are specific reasons why
the true fatality rate is less than 1.4% and may be _considerably_ less than
1%.

~~~
senordevnyc
_The number of reports of asymptomatic and mild cases which are asked not to
go to a hospital are specific reasons why the true fatality rate is less than
1.4% and may be considerably less than 1%_

Total speculation. There is no reliable data on how many uncounted people
there are. I've been watching your comments on here for days and it's clear
you want this to be overblown, as we all do, but you're intentionally twisting
the uncertainty in the evidence and data to try and downplay things. Things
_could_ turn out to be worse than we think, not better. Look at the death
rates in Italy and Iran. Not to mention how high hospitalization rates could
overwhelm our medical infrastructure and push the mortality rate even higher.

In short, unless you're a working expert in a relevant field, there's exactly
zero reason to listen to you. I'll continue to listen to what health officials
are saying, and watch what they're doing. And when I do that, it's pretty
clear that you and others like you who claim this is overblown and no big deal
are almost certainly wrong.

~~~
zaroth
> _In short, unless you 're a working expert in a relevant field_

FYI, the italicized portion was a quote from the New England Journal of
Medicine from a working expert in a relevant field.

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ck2
It's been spreading since November 2019, initially news of it was muzzled by
China and then they didn't know or didn't have tests for it in other
countries.

So it's going to popup everywhere. Any town with an international airport or
university with international students will be flooded with cases in a month.
Absolutely no-one has immunity since it's never existed before and since
everyone feels entitled to still go to work or shop while very sick, it will
spread like wildfire.

Also remember there are millions upon millions in the USA without any kind of
insurance or easy access to healthcare.

~~~
pbourke
Not to mention that political leadership and one corner of the media is
throwing chaff in the air and blaming the Democrats and mainstream media for
sensationalizing the virus. Trust, which is absolutely key to having the
population take action, has been eroded.

~~~
beamatronic
They are taking action, there’s no hand sanitizer on the shelves

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01100011
[https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/02/28/santa-clara-county-
an...](https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/02/28/santa-clara-county-announces-
new-coronavirus-case/)

Second community acquired infection and it's in the heart of the valley.

~~~
gravelc
Given the incubation time, the virus has been spreading in the community for
at least 1-2 weeks. Not a US citizen and don’t really understand how things
work there, but you’d think it’s time for a response at scale to have any
chance of containment. From a distance, it seems politics is interfering with
this.

~~~
mullingitover
The smart thing to do at this point would be to abandon the fool's hope that
this will be contained in the US, stop trying to track cases and spread, and
just work on shoring up the heath care system for when it's inevitably going
to be overrun. Trying to keep it contained now is like putting up a truckload
of sandbags to stop a tidal wave.

If it wasn't possible to be reinfected, I'd say the wise thing to do would be
to get yourself infected now, while you can still get a respirator in the
hospital.

~~~
01100011
That assumes you can't get it twice, which we don't know yet. It also assumes
there are no long-term effects, and there are already reports of lung
fibrosis. You're better off delaying it as long as possible. Work from home if
you can, and try to avoid non-essential travel while people work on better
treatments.

~~~
mullingitover
> That assumes you can't get it twice

I'm assuming you can get it twice, based on recent news[1], that's why I said:

> If it wasn't possible to be reinfected

[1] [https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-
being/prevention-c...](https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-
being/prevention-cures/484942-japan-confirms-first-case-of-person-reinfected)

~~~
01100011
Sorry, missed that.

------
zaroth
There are only 4 countries outside of China which have at least 100 confirmed
COVID cases.

There are only 3 countries outside of China which have had at least 10 COVID
deaths.

The story at this point has been blown massively out of proportion relative to
a typical flu season. How many more people died last week from flu-related
complications than died of COVID?

It’s wise to take precautions, but it should be done rationally. IMO, I think
prophecies of WWIII level calamity should be flagged, as it’s not healthy
discussion but more like gruesome fan fiction.

~~~
sytelus
In other thread, people commented that "it's becoming real" because now we
have TWO cases in US among the population over 300M. The current economic
damage is at least $50M/death due to COVID-19 virus! I'm not sure if this is
the most dangerous disease but its certainly most expensive diseases the world
has seen so far. So yes, the hype is real.

~~~
detaro
how are you measuring economic damage?

~~~
sytelus
Loss in the stock market, manufacturing, 10% of China population in lockdown.
The number of deaths so far is under 2500.

