
How real US economy collapse is? - knivets
I see a lot of articles and interviews from economists who are constantly repeating that the US collapse is inevitably coming in the next years. So the question is pretty simple, what is your thought about all this hype?
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seanccox
I'm taking your use of "collapse" too literally, probably. I do expect a
decline and possible deflation.

Several troubling indicators exist: \- US employment rates are only now on par
with pre-2008 crisis levels \- Current new job creation tends to be in low-
income employment \- Margin debt in equities has been touching historic highs
\- Household debt, particularly among new graduates, is also at or approaching
historic highs \- Oil and other commodities prices are falling, representing
declining demand for goods created with such resources \- Political risk is
rising and US capacity to deal with it effectively is, in my estimation,
limited

Taken alone, these are all concerning indicators. Taken together, they have
prompted economists and, recently, the IMF to issue strong warnings about
exposure to equities and the upcoming US economic climate.

However, I wouldn't say this constitutes a near-term "collapse". The US will
likely go into recession, or stagnate for the coming two or three years. Much
of the growth in the past six years has been on the back of Federal Reserve
management, so when the support ends, the economic cycle will continue a
downward course. This in turn will make it cheaper to resume manufacturing in
the US, compared to other countries, and production of a number of new
technologies and components being developed now (solar energy, semiconductors,
autonomous vehicles) may grow in the US, leading to wider growth and recovery.
US infrastructure is also due for a makeover, so programs investing in the
restoration of roads and bridges will also lead to improved employment and
growth.

Of course, several of these factors require government action, rather than
trust in market actors, so it's really a matter of personal politics whether
you expect collapse, decline, or growth. Still, as I pointed out, the
indicators are difficult to ignore. I personally pulled a lot of cash out of
equities and decided to build a cash base to insulate me from a stock market
correction and provide liquidity for either buying after a correction, or
investing in real estate. Or maybe I'll be able to get a boat on the cheap...
always wanted a boat. All of this is to say, you can't predict the future, but
I'm expecting a decline and I've created options for myself to deal with what
I expect.

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sbt
(1) Check whether the economist peddling this view incidentally has a lot of
gold he needs to unload, or is running a shop or fund for gold.

(2) Check whether the economist peddling this view incidentally is funded by
the Russian government (e.g. works for RT) or a similar entity interested in
pushing up US treasury yields.

(3) Check whether the economist peddling this view has been repeating the call
for a collapse bi-weekly since the Carter administration. A clock is right
twice a day after all.

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cbd1984
(4) Check whether the economist peddling this view describes themselves as an
Austrian or a follower of praxeology. Those are the "Creation Science" of
economics: Faith-based and with no successes to their name. They even deny the
role of evidence in economic theory, because if evidence is flawed and
sometimes biased it should (apparently) be discarded entirely.

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rthomas6
I don't know if I'd be _that_ hard on the Austrians.

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cbd1984
Seeing a sibling comment: Yes. I meant Austrian School economists. I'm sure
economists who happen to live in or work in or be from Austria are just as
competent, on average, as economists from anywhere else. I never really
anticipated that anyone would misinterpret that.

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JSeymourATL
Confirmation Bias Overload from Forbes...23 Charts Prove That Stocks Are
Heading For A Devastating Crash

[http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2014/07/01/these-23...](http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2014/07/01/these-23-charts-
prove-that-stocks-are-heading-for-a-devastating-crash/)

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hecty
pertly short but it quiet off .will be having big decline in job.s car house.
those 3 plus some small tech bubbles. plus are us wary monger trying go to
syrea ny nip lie he been trying work up noting that plus some ethic probems
with sheech and veiws of some event like how some conopery kown some wastin
realy live to fund warlord prop them a big bogy man sadly in cases as I seen
over yr i don't personaly care for the Birgs banks ecmoicaly can't be ingoerd
in realy. to ware big amto infsine an hit as end restal but bobbles be pushed
. that wa i'm personaly saying out risky assist right now. one housing go back
down my think about buy but the buyrs probemly won't thare for long bit of
time.

~~~
johntdyer
Wow, this is gibberish

