
10-year Treasury yield plunges below 0.5% - shreyshrey
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html
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mdorazio
It’s getting increasingly difficult to say we’re not entering a recession.
Pretty much every leading indicator is flashing red now. I’m expecting Q1
earnings reports and forecasts in a month to be the nail in the coffin.

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war1025
Doesn't seem like something that should catch anyone by surprise.

That said, it seems like this recession could have a significantly different
flavor to it than the others in recent memory.

As they say: All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in
its own way.

(Credited to Tolstoy where I looked it up just now.)

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H8crilA
This has got to be the best telegraphed recession of all times. I cannot
believe that anyone having skin in the economic game didn't know that it is
likely coming. Come on, don't be ridiculous.

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war1025
I really don't understand what it is you're replying about since the first
line of my comment was:

> Doesn't seem like something that should catch anyone by surprise.

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awillen
Things are definitely looking bad, but given how optimistic the market has
seemed over the past months even with lots of bad news coming out, I wouldn't
be surprised if there's a pretty sharp recovery once Covid-19 is contained.

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dforrestwilson
When and how do you see it being contained?

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badrabbit
Doesn't matter if it is contained. If people accept it as normal (i.e.: full
global spread) that's enough. There are bigger pandemics people have adopted
to (AIDS,flu,etc...) a vaccine would help too.

The market fears are not a result of being afraid people will die. It's mostly
around consumer spending,containment/quarantine efforts and supply chain
stability.

This by itself is a very recoverable crisis, you don't need bailouts and
mergers like in 2008. Nothing has collapsed (yet), which means everyone is
trying to "buy low" as soon as any sign of long term recovery is seen. The
only big fear is how politicians might throw gas into the fire for certain
political ends.

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blaser-waffle
Not sure why this is being downvoted. This is generally correct:

> The market fears are not a result of being afraid people will die. It's
> mostly around consumer spending,containment/quarantine efforts and supply
> chain stability.

It's a nasty virus, but this isn't the Spanish Flu devastating the post-WW1
landscape. It is absolutely going to screw up productions schedules and
messing with the supply chain. Turns out if millions of people have to miss
work the economy suffers, go figure.

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badrabbit
Probably because of the last bit about politics, that was just me expressing a
paranoia but to many their politics is like a religion to them and they assume
I meant their side in my comment (I just meant politicians in general,plenty
act in bad faith)

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gvhst
This isn't only because of COVID-19. The OPEC+ union between Russia and Saudi
Arabia broke down yesterday. The Saudi's are now flooding the market with
crude and are likely going to increase production to record levels. Crude is
down 30% as of 3/9 1AM EST. This uncertainty (plus people moving out of energy
bonds into treasuries) is also driving the flight to safety.

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fragsworth
There are three solutions:

1) Government makes more treasuries, sells them to the fed, and spends the
money on infrastructure. That increases government debt, but improves our
deflation situation and shrinks the loan bubble a bit. Preventing a
deleveraging.

2) Government literally prints money, and gives it to people. That will
rapidly increase inflation, which will increase corporate profits, shrinking
the loan bubble a bit, preventing a deleveraging.

3) Don't do 1 or 2 because it basically redistributes wealth. Wait for rich
people to spend their massive wealth on CPI-style goods and services, causing
poor people to eventually have and spend more money. This takes aeons.

As far as I can tell, the powers that be have decided that #3 is the solution,
and absolutely refuse to have a stable monetary system that involves giving
anything to poor people.

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JMTQp8lwXL
In the economically prosperous portions of our nation, inflation is doing just
fine. Housing prices have performed phenomenally in the past decade. The
overall CPI understates inflation because there's a great number of areas that
aren't economically relevant in the U.S. and consequently haven't experienced
the accompanying inflation.

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ddavis
Jeez, this really isn't the best time to start the process of getting my first
job post grad school.

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H8crilA
This too shall pass.

Also a recession is a cleansing thing (Austrian school). A lot of unproductive
people will be fired and a lot of stupid projects will be shut down, creating
space for new ventures. You should take risks exactly during the time of a
recession, not during the time of market & general confidence all time highs.
Same with young age - take risks when you're young and your downside is small.

But it ain't going to be easy.

(contingent on the recession actually materializing).

~~~
__s
For a novel that romanticizes this idea that recessions are the time to take
risks, see _The Driver_ by Garet Garrett

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H8crilA
Ahh, the times of bimetallism. Bimetallism was the Bitcoin of the times,
railroads were the "tech" of the times. Robert Shiller has a very entertaining
comparative research between Bitcoin and bimetallism in his book Narrative
Economics: [https://youtu.be/QV0JrMV5nnc](https://youtu.be/QV0JrMV5nnc)

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lgleason
Every year the flu kills 640,000 people world wide. Right now we are at 3648
from coronavirus. Also there is a lot of evidence to suggest that the actual
number of infections is much larger than the reported numbers. This means that
the actual death rate is much lower than what is reported.

All of this smells like a massive over-reaction to the coronavirus.

There has been a correction to world markets going on for a while with the US
being a possible exception. What actually shakes out it tough to say. Sadly,
the markets are controlled just as much by sentiment as by actual hard data
so...

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cjbprime
> Every year the flu kills 640,000 people world wide. Right now we are at 3648
> from coronavirus.

Great. How many people will die if coronavirus infections spread as widely as
flu infections?

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JMTQp8lwXL
The lack of a reputable statistic is concerning. I found the number 480,000
deaths (only U.S., not a global figure) circulating on sites including Daily
Mail, Business Insider, /r/China_Flu, and abc14news.com, a domain registered
in late 2018 and may or may not have any relation to ABC News the company.

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jml7c5
Answer: it does not. Pretty skeevy, since they're clearly hoping people will
confuse it with a local ABC broadcaster.

[https://abc14news.com/about-us/](https://abc14news.com/about-us/)

