

Awesome explanation of Bayesian probability - globalrev
http://yudkowsky.net/bayes/bayes.html

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pz
flippant summary of bayesian stats: normalize the likelihood, multiply by a
prior (which you can just set to whatevs).

oh, and you are allowed to assign probabilities to non-repeatable events, i.e.
what's the probability there is life on mars?

~~~
epe
_you are allowed to assign probabilities to non-repeatable events, i.e. what's
the probability there is life on mars_

I get the impression that believers in the Bayesian Revolution often also
subscribe to the many worlds quantum interpretation, which would make P(life
on Mars) a repeatable event.

~~~
jey
Many-worlds QM isn't a necessary assumption for subjective Bayesian
probability, nor is "repeatability".

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jodrellblank
If 80 in 10000 people who read Hacker News click on that link and 80% of them
read all of the page, and 9 in 200 of them would previously have voted up the
link and 32% of them leave New York at 14:10 travelling at 55mph, what is the
probability that one of them is Bruce Willis?

~~~
theoneill
Easy: zero.

~~~
Tamerlin
And you call yourself a geek? We all know that the answer is in fact 42!

:)

Note: Units are, of course, left as an exercise to the reader :)

