
Tesla Intrigue Deepens with Musk's Twitter Barrage - adventured
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-04/tesla-intrigue-deepens-with-musk-s-twitter-barrage
======
Someone1234
Tesla could have done a better job communicating that the internal look or
feel wasn't finalised.

Clearly that didn't impact pre-orders but I think a lot of people didn't love
the internal look even if they thought it was nice looking externally
(disclaimer: I was one of these people).

In my OPINION the 3 won't be fully self driving (for certification/legal
reasons). But we can reasonably speculate that it will have things like auto-
braking, lane keep assist, automatic cruise control, and similar. Since
competitor's vehicles have this, and in order to achieve "five stars in every
safety category" you actually need to have auto-braking.

Look at the requirements for the IIHS's "TOP SAFETY PICK+" which is the gold
standard for safety. A system like EyeSight, Honda Sensing, or similar is
required in 2016[0], and this vehicle will be looking for the 2017 or 2018
TSP+ rating no doubt.

So suggesting that it will have "auto-pilot"-like functionality[1] is very
reasonable. But that doesn't mean it will have full self-driving ("hands
off"), in particular given the regulatory landscape, development stage of the
technology, and the costs. We'll see.

[0] "Vehicles with optional front crash prevention qualify for either award
only when equipped with the technology."
[http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/TSP-
List](http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/TSP-List) i.e. without frontal auto-
braking as an option you cannot appear on the TSP+ list. But even vehicles on
the list only quality as TSP+ rated when the auto-braking option is installed
(without it they're TPS tier only).

[1]
[https://www.teslamotors.com/presskit/autopilot](https://www.teslamotors.com/presskit/autopilot)

~~~
dominotw
>auto-braking, lane keep assist, automatic cruise control, and similar

I bought a mazda cx recently with all of these feature. I must say I don't
find any of these really useful, but again I don't text while driving.

I think these features breed a false sense of security and encourage users to
text while driving. Features like these should be introduced only when they
can protect users from all cases of distracted driving not just one or two
situations.

~~~
kevan
To be fair, auto-braking isn't useful until you need it, and by that point
you're about a half second away from smashing into another car so you don't
have much time to think about it. That feature alone could reduce total
crashes by 10% [1]

[1]
[http://www.autonews.com/article/20160128/OEM06/160129871/aut...](http://www.autonews.com/article/20160128/OEM06/160129871/automatic-
braking-reduces-rear-end-crashes-iihs-study-finds)

~~~
dominotw
>That feature alone could reduce total crashes by 10% [1]

Well, ofcourse. I am talking about ppl become less safety conscious because
these features give them (false) sense of security.

eg: Anti-Tsunami walls killed more people than they saved during great
japanese tsunami because they gave people false sense of security and ppl
didn't take evacuation warnings seriously assuming walls would take care of
it. And ofcourse studies proved that having Tsunami walls is safer than no
walls.

~~~
Someone1234
> eg: Anti-Tsunami walls killed more people than they saved during great
> japanese tsunami [..] And ofcourse studies proved that having Tsunami walls
> is safer than no walls.

Huh? So walls killed more people than they saved but studies showed that they
are safer with the walls..?

I googled this, cannot find any information that the anti-Tsunami walls caused
more people to be killed.

~~~
dominotw
>Huh? So walls killed more people than they saved but studies showed that they
are safer with the walls..?

Studies was done with average tsunami heights from previous tsunamis. 2011 was
magnitudes higher than previous ones, walls were no match for the tsunami.

>I googled this, cannot find any information that the anti-Tsunami walls
caused more people to be killed.

I remember seeing this in a documentary, where they were interiviewing poeople
whose famalies died becuase they thought walls are going to save them.

I googled it now, this was the first result

[http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/03/22/japan-to-build-
massi...](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/03/22/japan-to-build-massive-sea-
wall-to-combat-tsunami-threat.html)

'The paradox of such projects, experts say, is that while they may reduce some
damage, they can foster complacency. That can be a grave risk along coastlines
vulnerable to tsunamis, storm surges and other natural disasters. At least
some of the 18,500 people who died or went missing in the 2011 disasters
failed to heed warnings to escape in time.'

------
spectrum1234
"Musk said the company was hoping for 0.21 drag coefficient. That's
exceedingly sleek."

I looked into this. 0.21 is insanely low for a production car. How come this
isn't bigger news? This alone is fascinating.

~~~
andersen1488
The Model S is already at 0.24 (most efficient car in production)

~~~
jandrese
I'm guessing Tesla gets to cheat a bit since they don't use heat engines and
don't have to run a bunch of air over a giant mesh screen to keep the engine
from burning up.

Also, that giant pane of smooth glass over the top probably helps.

~~~
erikpukinskis
So by "cheat" you mean "solve the same problem in a better way"?

~~~
jandrese
They get to play on a tilted playing field. They do have to lug around the
weight of the batteries, but for cruising at highway speed (where the aero
figure is most important), extra weight matters little.

------
grecy
Unveil part 2 is "super next-level".

And the "steering controls and system feels like a spaceship"

And Musk tweeted a little while ago about getting a special team of Software
Engineers reporting directly to him for self-driving that was "top priority"
within the company.

And there are no gauges directly in front of the driver at all, which has been
confirmed to be like that for production.

At this point, can it be anything other than full autonomous? (and maybe
you'll have to take over sometimes, but I'm thinking 95%+ of the time it will
be driving itself)

~~~
yoodenvranx
> At this point, can it be anything other than full autonomous?

There is no way that autonomous driving is going to work in most small
European town and villages. There are so many downtowns which were never meant
to be used by car and it is already difficult to navigate those places as a
human. I just don't see how this should work over here in Europe.

Selfdriving on the highway or in a typical suburban sprawl in the US? Yes,
that might work in the near future. Navigating twisted one-way streets in some
old town from the middle ages during rush hour? That will take a long time to
do this fully autonomously.

~~~
Laaw
Why? What specifically is hard about narrow streets? That actually sounds like
the kind of thing a self driving car could excel at.

The bigger problem, is imagine, would be weather. I dunno how completely
they've solved that problem yet.

~~~
mantas
I recently drove in freezing storm. Whole frontend was covered in icy-slushy
mixture. Parking sensors were freaking out and working totally randomly in
such conditions.

If I ever get an autonomous car, manual driving is a must-have feature :|

~~~
grecy
I once had a car that didn't work at all when it was below about 32 or above
about 70.

Keeping my horse was a must for those situations.

I once rode in a plane that could only go a few hundred miles before
refueling.

Keeping my car was a must for those situations.

I once rode in a train that could only go ~60 mph.

Keep my car was a must for those situations.

(hint, I'm talking about early stuff)

------
mattlutze
I'm hoping we'll indeed see some tweaks to the nose -- it looks like a blank
waiting for a cut-out to fit a grill and will leave the car feeling nearly-
finished if it stays that way for production. Only bit that wasn't really a
home run for me (for a pre-production, anyways).

But otherwise... shooting for autonomous-first at launch will be interesting
indeed. How would that effect the opinions of the folks now on the wait list?
I wonder how much we're really going to need/want these levels of performance
with the car doing the driving for us, of if having the go-fast will end up
being mostly a safety feature for collision avoidance?

~~~
wimagguc
That mask started to grow on me: it makes the car look like a spaceship, and
even more importantly, it sets it apart from all other cars out there.

It's like the hatchback-shape of the Prius. I don't think anyone does actually
find that attractive, but it's a great design to tell everyone from a distance
that you're a better person than them.

~~~
SkyMarshal
Except a hatchback actually has a functional purpose, the Model 3's grill-less
grill not so much.

~~~
analyst74
I've noticed the trend in recent years of more prominent grill on many brands,
especially the low end luxury lines.

I can't be the only one who hates those, I mean, Trypophobia is one of the
most common phobias.

~~~
gknoy
FYI for anyone tempted to google search for it: there are some pretty gross
image-search results that I wish I could un-see, helpfully inserted by Google
before most of the results.

From wikipedia:

> Trypophobia is a proposed phobia (pathological fear) of small holes,
> particularly irregular patterns or clusters of small holes. The term was
> coined in 2005 from the Greek τρύπα (trýpa) "hole" and φόβος (phóbos)
> "fear". Thousands of people say they have the condition. It is not a
> recognized diagnosis or condition in the American Psychiatric Association's
> Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) or other
> scientific literature.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trypophobia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trypophobia)

------
S_A_P
So I watched the Model 3 unveil. I found it to be pretty awful. I had seen
Musk unveil the battery swap, and felt that he looked way more polished than
he did in the Model 3 unveil. The reveal kind of stressed me out the way he
was stammering over the words. It seemed as though he had either not practiced
the script, not written one, or had a bout of stage fright. He really didnt
"sell" the car. Just said yes its going to be great and gave 3-4 bullet points
on features. It was not something that I would compare to any apple product
reveal by any stretch.

~~~
rewqfdsa
He's going through a massive divorce that could cost him billions.

~~~
JoeAltmaier
Assuming its 'his' to begin with. Not hers already?

~~~
rewqfdsa
I'm quite sure that Musk is the one responsible for the increase in value of
his companies, not someone who's been uninvolved in running them.

~~~
rmwaite
I am able to concentrate on growing my career because of my spouse, not in
spite of them.

~~~
rohit89
That's not the case for everyone.

------
wesleytodd
_WARNING_ : Auto-playing video ads that are not muted

~~~
mattbeckman
Yeah. Also, TIL you can "Mute Tab" in Chrome before anything starts playing.

~~~
aerovistae
Please elaborate.

~~~
bluehawk
Right click, mute tab.

~~~
bryanlarsen
@mattbeckman said you could do it before anything starts playing, is that
possible?

------
alexhawdon
I'm as incredulous as the next person that a mostly self-driving car will be
available by 2017-8 and that this will be it.

That said, on the way to full autonomy I can foresee a car that can handle 99%
of the driving itself but calls on the driver to help out during the other 1%.
In such a scenario the car may know where it is and isn't safe to drive, but
not exactly where, or when.

Examples include the 1-lane, 2-directions-of-traffic rural roads. Unmapped car
parks and private premises. Navigating around roadworks. Basically all the
'edge-case' scenarios people often cite.

The car could guess the route and you use a joystick to control the forward
speed. You can use the joystick to change the proposed route as you drive. And
if you wanted to leave the detected 'safe area' ("no, I really do want to
drive into that car - it's a tow truck and I need to get on it!") you
acknowledge a bunch of ominous warnings and control the car directly, albeit
at a very low speed.

------
knodi123
Can someone clarify for me- will the existing Model S have any features NOT
present in the vastly cheaper Model 3?

~~~
osteele
Speed (acceleration). Current Model S 0-6 times are from 5.2s to 2.8s,
depending on trim. The Model 3 is “under six seconds” and maybe “substantially
faster”: it could overlap the slower current Model S trims.

Range. Current Model S ranges are from 240m to 270m, depending on trim. Model
3: 215m.

Cargo volume. The Model S has 31.6 ft^3. The Model 3 looks much smaller.

Free lifetime use of superchargers? I haven't seen this speculated, but I'll
be surprised if the Model 3 includes unlimited supercharger use; I suspect
paid use of the network will be a new Tesla revenue stream.

On the other hand, smaller makes for easier parking and maneuvering, in
addition to the cost savings. And I expect the Model 3 to have more and better
sensors, in support of better autonomous driving, than the current Model S can
support.

All said, IMO the major advantage of the existing Model S is that it exists
today. Owners are paying a huge premium to get semi-autonomous driving a
couple of years ahead of schedule. “The future is already here — it's just not
very evenly distributed.” – William Gibson

~~~
Bedon292
He stated in the talk that supercharger was included with all Model 3's.

~~~
johnward
Supercharging hardware is included. Did not confirm it will be free. On the
Model S there is a charge for supercharging hardware.

~~~
Bedon292
He said supercharging was included in the talk. And everywhere is reporting it
as included on all models. "and supercharging, even for the basic version of
the car." [http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/04/the-post-
model-3-reveal-...](http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/04/the-post-
model-3-reveal-reveals-what-we-know-about-the-new-tesla-four-days-out/)

~~~
johnward
You don't understand. "Supercharging" means hardware. It takes additional
charging hardware to be compatible with a supercharger. On the Model S
supercharging hardware was an option. I hope you are right but at this point
it's still unconfirmed.

[https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/4dc6rs/officia...](https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/4dc6rs/official_response_tesla_has_not_decided_if_model/)

~~~
Bedon292
Thanks for that link. To me, 'supercharging' is the act of charging. And he
specifically said supercharging, not supercharger hardware. So that is where
the confusion came from.

------
mrtron
Part 2: Some sort of heads up display in the windshield? Could work well with
self driving mode on highways.

------
jusben1369
One of the things I find fascinating, and that Tesla has to grapple with at
some point with real ramifications, is: are they a self driving car company
that just happens to be an electric car company? Or the other way around?

I would argue that electric car companies are appealing to a much smaller
subset of potential customers than are self driving cars. But the mission
behind each is very different and that flows into all the key design and
marketing decisions you have to make.

Tesla can easily pivot from one to the other. But Musk is so passionate about
the first, and therefore so are so many of their key people, that you wonder
what happens if they pivot to being first to market with the best self driving
cars that just happen to be electric.

~~~
electrograv
Why do you need to define a car company in a single adjective like "[self
driving] car company" or "[electric] car company"?

Both are clearly the future. So what's wrong with doing both?

You say "pivot" as though these are incompatible goals, when in fact they're
perfectly complementary paths to a future ideal of ground transportation.

To me, your point is like asking "Is Google a search company, or an
advertising company?" They're both, in a fully symbiotic sense. You cannot
describe it as one of these accurately, without the other.

~~~
jusben1369
Everything about Tesla has been around helping/saving the environment by
accelerating the adoption of battery driven cars vs ICE. Nothing about self
driving cars says they have to be electric. In fact, if the first fully self
driving car was gasoline that would probably impede Tesla's growth. So it
impacts where your limited R&D, manufacturing and sales and marketing $$"s go.
I don't think a company as small as Tesla can be both - at least not
effectively. One will have to give to the other.

~~~
saturdaysaint
Nothing about making computers says you have to make phones (Apple). As the GP
mentioned, nothing about search says you have to sell advertising (Google).
And none of the above say you have to make a self driving car (as both are
reported to be attempting).

I think you're drawing some arbitrary distinctions here. Making big bets in
several areas is no small part of why Apple, Google and Tesla are magnets for
the best engineers and programmers. There's nothing unfocused about marrying
great software and hardware, which is ultimately what Tesla is doing.

A lot of Musk's bet in AV is founded on the understanding that the existing
automakers are/were quite capable of making a good electric car - they just
have too much incentive to drag their feet. Autonomous driving will actually
be the major differentiator in an industry that didn't have the software
expertise to create a decent infotainment system.

------
ycombdev
"The rear-wheel drive cars will be able to go zero to 60 in less than 4
seconds."

Wasn't it like 6 seconds before? Or is this the top level rear-wheel drive
version?

~~~
cloudwalking
He said 6 seconds at the presentation. I think 4 is a typo.

~~~
johnward
The 4 seconds comes from speculation from an article before the reveal. Maybe
that's the target for the performance variant?

------
esterly
One of the folks Musk responded to, Brian Reed, did an nice job filling in the
gap in this article and video [http://bgr.com/2016/04/04/tesla-model-3-hidden-
details-video...](http://bgr.com/2016/04/04/tesla-model-3-hidden-details-
video/)

------
pbreit
So does communicating on Twitter comply with regulatory requirements around
public company communications? Cool, if so.

~~~
johnward
I'm not a lawyer but it's a public site.

------
davnn
Just flying over the comments I find it interesting that a lot of people try
their best to find negative aspects of self-driving cars. I always try to be
open to all parties, but a lot of people are wayyy too confident in human
abilities. We are pretty bad, seriously.

------
djloche
I wonder, when Tesla unveils something that doesn't fit within the parameters
that those people think of as a 'car', how many will drop their reservation?

Since we don't know the details yet, we don't know how much of a departure it
will be.

~~~
electrograv
I doubt that the demographic that pre-orders a Tesla Model 3 (years before
shipping), is a demographic that is unwilling to embrace change.

I also doubt that it will have _no_ manual control mode, so it shouldn't an
issue regardless. Tesla is clearly going the route of being a strict super-set
of the capabilities of other cars, until the market decides what features are
obsolete many years down the road (e.g. steering wheels).

~~~
djloche
It's really a question of demographics. How many people that have put down a
reserve are buying a car _to drive_ vs buying a means of transportation?

Obviously, this is all speculative since they haven't revealed what they're
talking about.

~~~
marssaxman
I might like to buy a car with the Model 3's general parameters - I had the
electrical service on my house redone a couple of years ago in part because I
wanted to have the capacity to add a car charger someday - but I am almost
completely uninterested in a Tesla because I am not on board with their "just
sit back and trust us" philosophy. No, thank you, I don't trust you, or any
car maker, and don't want your auto-updating auto-everything machine!

And I basically just hate trying to deal with touch screens. They get smudgy
and gross at the blink of an eye, and their total lack of tactile feedback
demands a tedious degree of conscious attention which makes them inefficient
ways of performing routine tasks, which adjustment of an automobile's cabin
controls ought to be.

------
dorianm
I couldn't believe it was gonna be a fully autonomous car long-term until I
saw the empty dashboard in the video:
[http://i.imgur.com/XcUjuDv.jpg](http://i.imgur.com/XcUjuDv.jpg)

~~~
vrfcodf
How could it be? The regulations don't allow it. I don't see it happening
sooner than 10 years. If so, what is their plan?

~~~
zardo
NHTSA is scrambling to make it possible, this is the biggest safety innovation
in cars since the seat belt. And as long as they have the hardware
capabilities, Tesla wouldn't have to launch it with full autonomous mode
available.

~~~
johnward
Just imagine how safe we will be if we reach Level 5 autonomy, no driver
control possible? I think the Model 3 is going to be the first production car
to reach Level 4. I'm hoping that's what the "part 2" update is.

------
gist
Windshield stretching from front to back (the roof) will be quite a bit more
expensive to replace than a standard windshield no doubt. Ironic given the
price point.

~~~
bryanlarsen
There are seams, it's not one giant piece of glass.

------
tkinom

       Is there any good analysis on the impact of EV on the gas and oil demand on the world? 
    
     ??% of Ca, US cars are EV, as results, ??%  of Ca, US gas/oil consumptions are reduced.   If the trend continue, here's what happen when % of EV reach 10, 20, 30, 50%, the global oil demand will be drop by ??,??,?? %.

------
po
> The Model 3 will come with standard rear-wheel drive, with an option for
> dual-motor all-wheel drive.

It better be fully autonomous if you've ever seen how rear-wheel drive
performs in a north-eastern snowstorm. Sure, there's a lot of weight over the
back wheels but that sounds crazy to me as the default.

~~~
wmeredith
Eh, you may be defeating your own argument there. The main reason that front-
wheel drive is better in slick conditions is more weight over the wheels in
the typical front engined car. Rear wheel drive may actually be better if the
battery pack is sitting on top of it.

~~~
bryanlarsen
That's only part of it. The other reason is that on a front wheel drive car,
torque is applied in the direction you want to go. On a rear wheel drive car,
torque is applied in the direction you are currently going.

~~~
johnward
A common complain about FWD is understeer though. It's worse with more torque
at the front wheels.

------
arcanus
'The rear-wheel drive cars will be able to go zero to 60 in less than 4
seconds. '

I don't believe that.

~~~
elorant
It’s a known fact that electric cars have superb acceleration mainly because
they deliver all power from the beginning, in contrast to internal combustion
engines that need to reach certain rpms to achieve the same thing. Even if
it’s 6 seconds instead of 4 it still is an impressive number for a car at that
price range.

~~~
forgetsusername
> _Even if it’s 6 seconds instead of 4 it still is an impressive number for a
> car at that price range._

Not really. There are multiple Ford and Suburau models (off the top of my
head) that will run sub-6.0, some models $10k cheaper than the Model 3.

~~~
bryanlarsen
How many of those can do it without revving the engine and popping the clutch?
An electric car's low end torque is usable for everyday driving.

Of course, where most people judge a car's power while driving it normally is
the 60-80 mph time. That's the only time most people floor the accelerator,
when they're pulling out to pass someone. Gasoline vehicles have a marked
advantage in this metric.

------
mentos
Didn't realize the price point has dropped to $35k that is the biggest news
for me.

------
justifier
my only head scratch on the design is the giant tablet attached to a thin pole
on the dash

i live in sf, where a book on your passenger seat will get you a broken window
and lose you a book

the tablet looks like it is going to inadvertantly encourage broken windows
and is inevitably going to be ripped out of the dash

here's to hoping it retracts to under the dash when off

~~~
adventured
It's an unfinished cabin design. I doubt they're going to leave a monitor
sitting in that spot as the end look. Most likely it'll be mounted flush into
the dash in some manner.

~~~
johnward
The Model X has a tablet sticking out like this for the pre-production but the
production model has it molded into the dash.

------
dismal2
Anyone else getting a vaporware vibe from this car?

~~~
aerovistae
Lmao what? After he's delivered the S and the X, and created reusable rockets,
you think this is _vaporware_? Wtf?

~~~
johnward
People are still trying to call Tesla the new Delorean. Even after all the
successful deliveries.

