

Econometricians, Financial Markets and Uncertainty: An Anthropological View - abledon
http://fixingtheeconomists.wordpress.com/2014/08/21/econometricians-financial-markets-and-uncertainty-an-anthropological-view/

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mcguire
Whenever I see arguments like,

" _It is clear that Zaka the Malagasy thinks David the American’s questions to
be absolutely bizarre. It simply does not make any sense to him. Despite being
educated he does not even think to ascribe to chance a numerical estimate._ "

I start getting the suspicion that I'm being played. Do Malagasies not gamble?
He goes on with,

" _But when Graeber asks what the chance of the bus turning up is or whether
the cops will notice that he is parked illegally, these estimates are not
objective. They are entirely mystical._ "

Those estimates are not mystical. They're not backed up by good data and
they're not really objective, but "mystical" is absolutely the wrong word. The
probability of a bus arriving in the next five minutes can certainly be
quantified, as a single number.

On the other hand, it is also true that much of "econometrics", economics
based on numbers rather than the even-worse grand theories of the universe,
are _not_ backed by the solid grounding that bus arrivals are. Things like GDP
(or GNP; I can't remember the current term) or Black–Scholes do not have any
real evidence of existence and are certainly "mystical".

I see imagine the "performativity" aspect is going to be a hoot, too.

~~~
gwern
> I start getting the suspicion that I'm being played. Do Malagasies not
> gamble?

They may gamble, but who says they do so _well_? How well do Westerners
indulging in gambler's fallacy or gambler's ruin understand it? And remember
Blaise Pascal's invention of probability is ascribed to a dispute between
experienced gamblers (Chevalier de Méré).

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sinwave
The anthropology of economics and the economics of anthropology are equally
hilarious.

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calibraxis
Yes, it was amusing to read in Graeber's _Debt: The First 5000 Years_ about
economics' founding myth of barter. And "the fact that many of Adam Smith’s
most famous arguments appear to have been cribbed from the works of free-
market theorists from medieval Persia (a story which, incidentally, has
interesting implications for understanding the current appeal of political
Islam)."

Econ is indeed the dismal pseudoscience...

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MaysonL
Somehow, David Graeber on anything economic, is likely worth about as much as
his description of Apple's founding.

[http://www.businessweek.com/finance/occupy-wall-
street/archi...](http://www.businessweek.com/finance/occupy-wall-
street/archives/2011/11/david_graebers_odd_history_of_silicon_valley.html)

