
We’re heading into a jobless future, no matter what the government does - mikeleeorg
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/innovations/wp/2014/07/21/were-heading-into-a-jobless-future-no-matter-what-the-government-does/
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m52go
I think this notion of a jobless future is extreme. Hear me out.

What we're witnessing is the dawning of a new era in which _relying upon a
job_ to earn a livelihood becomes extinct.

That's very different.

Instead of submitting to an employer to be _productive_ members of society,
we'll need to actually _produce_.

We'll all need to be entrepreneurs: creative problem-solvers who go out and
get our own. Not necessarily venture-backed billionaire-destined heroes, but
tradesmen solving small to midsize problems in our communities. Remember human
life before the 401(k)? Enterprising souls who earned livings without mega-
corporations?

All this technology we're developing now will be instrumental for that era.
With Meteor, a tattoo-artist can (and has) create an enterprise-ready app.
That's the epitome of productivity in a technology-driven society, and I think
we'll see more of that as we move into this 'jobless' environment. AKA
'innovate or die'.

Problems to solve aren't going anywhere (technology always causes people to
think there's "nothing left to do." there always is). The need to earn our
keep isn't either (we'll always need food, shelter, and love).

This jobless future is exaggerated...but the effects aren't. We'll just need
to be more enterprising and more creative in how we handle those effects.

~~~
fizx
A problem with your vision of the future is that finding (and keeping) a
profitable niche is _hard_.

Historically, you could always own the corner store, and always get business
from at least your block. However the trends driving the "jobless future" will
see local businesses absorbed into larger entities. The corner store will be
replaced with instant delivery.

So you have to find a niche that is global, and when you find it, you'll
instantly be bombarded by global competitors, and you'll have to grow or die.

In the "jobless future," individualism looks like etsy--super-niche artisan
work for the status of owning something unique. Handmade luxury items can't
replace an entire economy.

~~~
m52go
I agree that artisan work can't replace an entire economy. But I also don't
think that artisan work will be the only viable means of earning a living in
that world.

Notably, I don't think the corner store (in terms of local services) is going
very far. Sure, retail has an enormous battle to fight. But that's just one
front.

People will always depend on each another for one thing or another. Beyond
retail, whether it's local products like food or local services like domestic
contracting or professional services, I think the community will play an even
more significant role than it does now in spite of a burgeoning global scene.

I've been deeply influenced by Charles Hugh Smith's writings on community.
It's a term we tend to devalue, but it's one Smith thinks is a fundamental
building block for the future. He's a bit extreme, as he tends to expect a
large macro-disturbance, but his ideas are sound. Here's one piece:

[http://www.oftwominds.com/blogsept13/community-
economy9-13.h...](http://www.oftwominds.com/blogsept13/community-
economy9-13.html)

~~~
dragonwriter
> Notably, I don't think the corner store (in terms of local services) is
> going very far.

A lot of services can be automated, and actual retail -- well, once you have
sufficiently economical self-driving vehicles and product picking robots,
local _automated delivery hubs_ from which products are dispersed to
purchasers are a lot more likely than local retail shops -- they'll be
"stores" in the sense of places that store things, but customers won't ever
have to set foot in one; potentially, no one will go there except to service
the robots.

------
RV86
Keynes put forward a similar thesis decades ago and we were supposed to be
there by now. Check this out:

[http://mitpress.mit.edu/books/revisiting-
keynes](http://mitpress.mit.edu/books/revisiting-keynes)

Perhaps there is something more basic in our natural dispositions than either
of these great economic thinkers is appreciating. We don't really want an
excess of leisure to the extent that mass boredom results.

I'm reminded of two quotes by Pascal:

"The source of all man's unhappiness is his inability to sit alone in a room
with his own thoughts."

"If a soldier or labourer complains of the hardship of his lot, set him to do
nothing."

------
angelortega
Meanwhile, in "first-world" places like Spain we're on the verge of starvation
due to global unemployment and poverty.

~~~
beachstartup
i think saying that spain is on the verge of starvation kind of does a
disservice to people who actually are.

there's no shortage of food in europe.

------
larrys
"robots will drive our cars, manufacture our goods, and do our chores."

"Drones will take the jobs of postmen and delivery people."

I can't take seriously an article that makes absolute statements like this.

Not only are drones not able to operate during certain inclement weather (and
in certain geographic environments) but you can't deliver a refrigerator (as
only 1 example) with a drone.

There was a time when people thought that everyone would be flying around in
their own personal airplane so the devil is in the details of course being
able to predict human behavior as well as technology is very important as
well.

------
ankitml
Somehow he misses few crucial points : 1\. Medicine is not getting better. We
are losing the war with bacteria. Rate at which antibiotics are rendered
useless because of resistance is greater than the rate at which they are being
discovered. 2\. Energy cost of Food production has been increasing since
industrial times. (combine this with energy scarcity) 3\. Energy cost of
producing energy has been increasing. Once taken into account, all is not rosy
in the future. We have lots of work to do to make future better.

------
jwatte
More people not doing menial tasks means more people able to apply their
brains. The society that can best capitalize on that resource will win.

------
afterburner
I don't disagree with the article, but I hope this isn't taken as an excuse to
do nothing about current high unemployment due to low aggregate demand, which
the government can certainly do something about.

------
jinushaun
Seeing all the debate whenever this topic comes up, it reminds me of the
argument that Star Trek was actually a dystopia. Surprisingly, a jobless
future with basic income really scares people.

~~~
reflectiv
Some people just feel the need to be told what to do. They lack the desire or
insight to choose their own path.

Also, some people just simply don't understand how a 'jobless'/basic-income
future would look...and what they don't understand scares them.

------
mtdewcmu
This is a peculiar viewpoint. Kurzweil is a utopian. This accepts Kurzweil's
premise that technology is accelerating, so it's not quite dystopian. Anti-
utopian, maybe?

------
pwnna
> unlimited energy

Doesn't that violate the laws of thermodynamics?

~~~
gipp
It's clearly supposed to mean "more than we could conceivably need." It's not
a scientific paper.

------
paulhauggis
Is this were we start talking about "basic income" again? Where the few that
work are taxed almost all of their income to pay for the rest that isn't?

~~~
johnward
What are the alternatives? I still believe at a point we won't need very much
human labor. So what do we do with all of those people that don't/can't work?

Others have mentioned that the economy will just create new, even more
mindless, tasks for us to be paid for. I don't believe that because there is
no incentive for companies to employ people for jobs machines can do cheaper.

~~~
wyager
We won't need human labor because labor will be abundant. Anyone can have
access to production technology. You don't need to steal to make that happen.

~~~
gress
How can 'anyone have access to production technology' (which incidentally
includes the education necessary to utilize it), if they have no income?

~~~
wyager
Some charitable rich guy will give away a cheap nano-factory, and then that
guy uses the nano-factory to make more nano-factories, gives those away, etc.

Education is basically already free, and free education is on the way to being
as good as paid education. Information reproduction costs are near zero.

You are stuck in the pre-free-labor mindset.

~~~
gress
When does this magical tipping point arrive?

