
Chinese government is working on a timetable to end sales of fossil-fuel cars - mikeash
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-09/china-to-ban-sale-of-fossil-fuel-cars-in-electric-vehicle-push
======
orf
A common talking point from the right during the withdrawal from the Paris
accord is that "It's just talk, China isn't actually going to do anything". I
wonder what the new talking point going to be after this news? Something
something developing country, coal power plants?

This seems like pretty good news in general though, combined with other
smaller bans (like the UK+France ban on Diesel cars). But I'm not sure how I
feel about China itself leading this green push.

~~~
microcolonel
This is _an announcement of a desire to set a target_ , not an achievement.
Automobiles are not the core of China's emissions problems, they are still
installing a large number of new coal reactors, to my knowledge.

~~~
orf
> an announcement of a desire to set a target

Isn't it an announcement of a future target? Seems more that "we will set a
target" than "we want to but these lobbyists are making it really hard"

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brownbat
EVs in China produce two to five times the amount of smog as gas vehicles,
because the supporting energy mix is so dirty.

[https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/in-coal-
powered-c...](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/in-coal-powered-
china-electric-car-surge-fuels-fear-of-worsening-smog/)

Should be good long term, if China realizes other energy sourcing goals,
just... EVs alone don't fix everything.

~~~
ecpottinger
Yet somehow this study leaves out how much China is adding solar and wind
energy to it's supply.

Infact China is closing down it's worse coal plants.

See:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_China)
[http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40341833](http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40341833)
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-19/china-
add...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-19/china-adds-
about-24gw-of-solar-capacity-in-first-half-official)
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_China)
[https://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/13/china-and-us-lead-way-
with-w...](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/13/china-and-us-lead-way-with-wind-
power-installations-says-global-energy-report.html)

~~~
brownbat
> Yet somehow this study leaves out how much China is adding solar and wind
> energy to it's supply.

Ahem...

> The good news is that China has shown a firm commit- ment to prompt
> renewable energy use, improving energy efficiency and reducing pollutant
> emissions from power plants. Great efforts have been, and will continue to
> be, made by the Chinese government to reduce the emissions of power plants,
> such as setting an aggressive target to reduce national SO2 emissions by 10%
> from 2005 to 2010 by installing FGD and closing a large number of small
> generating units.

They project out to 2030 and examine different international assumptions about
realistic future energy mixes.

But yeah, it's still an optimistic story long term. They'll also need things
like low rolling resistance tires and new braking tech to reduce pm 2.5, and
reforms in ag, industry, and home heating. But every step is part of it.

[http://www.tsinghua.edu.cn/publish/ess/7778/2012071915174608...](http://www.tsinghua.edu.cn/publish/ess/7778/20120719151746087644973/%5B18%5D%2520Huo_EST_2010.pdf)

------
amrrs
First, I don't get it, Politicians pushing Electric Vehicle for PR or really
to help locals with realistic setup in place? But this being china they can
literally get anything running in a very short time. While this is all good,
what would happen to car manufacturers, countries import and export in terms
of Crude oil. What kind of impact will this bring on China's economy?

------
_ph_
I am pretty sure that electric cars are going to take over the car market.
Tesla has shown that electric cars can be more desirable than combustion
engined ones. They are also the best way to reduce the environmental impact of
cars. Currently, the market share is limited by the higher price and more so
even by the small number of different electrical models offered. The price
does not matter if you cannot get the car model you want in the first place.

So any threats to fossil car sales is about accelerating the switch and push
car makers into quickly offering a wider variety of electric cars. As soon as
electric cars cross 50% market share, combustion engine cars probably will
become less desirable and difficult to sell. So a total ban should not matter
too much then, the trick is getting to 50%.

~~~
majewsky
> They are also the best way to reduce the environmental impact of cars.

From an individual perspective, maybe. From a city-planner perspective, the
best way to reduce the environmental impact of cars is to deploy public
transit. (And the Chinese know that:
[https://twitter.com/yicaichina/status/867494851511672832](https://twitter.com/yicaichina/status/867494851511672832)
)

------
maxxxxx
If everybody switches to electric do we have enough raw materials for
batteries like lithium to supply the whole world?

~~~
aphextron
>If everybody switches to electric do we have enough raw materials for
batteries like lithium to supply the whole world?

This is a common misconception about batteries. Lithium makes up about 2% of
the mass of a Li-Ion battery, and it is more abundant in the Earth's crust
than lead or tin.

~~~
duckfruit
And unlike oil, Lithium can be recycled indefinitely

~~~
mimsee
"As of 2017, the recycling of Li-Ion batteries generally does not extract
lithium since the many different types of Li-Ion batteries require a different
extraction process."

Source: "Battery Recycling > Lithium ion batteries"
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battery_recycling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battery_recycling)

~~~
mikeash
This would change if there was a shortage. Nobody recycles it now because it's
cheaper to mine more.

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vorticalbox
Is the world really ready to push battery power this quickly? We need to
install millions of charging ports.

What worries me is charge time. Say it takes 2 hours to charge my car I pull
over and all the charging ports are taken.

I could be waiting 2 hours to get a port and then another 2 to charge.

~~~
hammock
Yes. The Nissan Leaf has a range of 107 miles. How is most of Florida supposed
to evacuate before a hurricane if they all drive EV's? There already isn't
even enough gas down there for everyone.

~~~
tobyhinloopen
Bus or Train?

~~~
TomMarius
What about partially/fully immobile family members, larger than small physical
things, supplies, lower income households (that use their car as a storage and
live in a tent)...?

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davesque
Whenever I see news like this, it just makes it seem like the US is going to
become irrelevant in the future global economy if it doesn't get more serious
about renewable energy.

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guelo
Holy shit! Maybe it is better if the west cedes global leadership to China.
Western billionaires have figured out how to own our governments. China's
communist party seems to be immune to their influence so far.

~~~
manmal
Why? There are many countries that already have such a timetable.

