
A guy just transcribed 30 years of for-rent and created a pricing model - martin_
https://medium.com/@andersem/a-guy-just-transcribed-30-years-of-for-rent-ads-heres-what-it-taught-us-about-sf-housing-prices-bd61fd0e4ef9#.jhjcr9wnu
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Vraxx
I don't think that coming up with a model that matches historical data ensures
that the model is predictive in any manner. I also have trouble believing
solutions that vastly simplify very complex interactions. Ultimately, I think
the data is surely helpful and that there is analysis that could be done with
it, but I think it's about as likely to predict the future of rent prices in
SF as we are to have a model that predicts the price of stocks based on three
simple variables.

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GFK_of_xmaspast
> I don't think that coming up with a model that matches historical data
> ensures that the model is predictive in any manner

How do you think predictive models are built.

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Vraxx
That might be part of the process, but the key word here was _ensure_. The
article seemed extremely confident that this model was predictive, to the
point of suggesting very drastic actions based on the predictions, which is
why I made the comment.

