
The pop star and the prophet - domador
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-34268474
======
stevoski
I feel that that the article often mixes cause and effect. It also neglects to
mention that the cost of producing music is much less than ten, twenty, fifty
years ago. I have the tools in my modest office to record a track, edit it,
cut it, release it, and promote it. That ease of production inevitably leads
to a much greater supply than the market can handle.

I believe software is on the same path. Ten, twenty years ago, to create,
distribute, and market software was a complex undertaking involving many
actors. But now motivated software developers can release and market products
with much greater ease than even shareware producers experienced in the
1990's.

Seven years ago I released my main software product (poker hand tracking and
analysis for OS X), a niche product within a niche market. I thought I would
own the niche forever. But due to the ease with which competitors could create
and launch, there has been a steady stream of competitors in my small, small
space. This increased supply should lead to a decreased average income for
mini moguls like myself.

~~~
cJ0th
> I feel that that the article often mixes cause and effect.

That was also my impression. I certainly agree with your observation that it
is the ease of distribution which influenced the development first and
foremost. It doesn't really take a prophet to point out that stuff which is
predestined to become "tap water" will be tap water one day. Mass markets (and
thus the pop music industry) have always wanted to sell stuff in huge
quantities. From a business point of view, I see rock and roll more as a
starting point of an iteration that aims at perfecting the generation of pop
stars than a revolution. Shows like American Idol demonstrate that we have
arrived. However, meanwhile people slowly get sick of casting shows.

So by borrowing some marketing vocabulary you could say that a _star_ became a
_cash cow_ and now turned into a _poor dog_

I am not sure how things will pan out in the world of physical goods, though.
While it is true that we will increasingly be able to manufacture stuff
ourselves there is also this need for exclusivity. People enjoy owning iPhones
and Beats headphones because they are portioned out by some sort of
authorities.

------
ryandamm
Fascinating that the economist predicted the decline of the music industry,
but everyone who's predicting that 3D printing will destroy the economy of
physical things either doesn't understand 3d printing, making physical things,
or both.

3D printing is great if you want crappy things made out of a single material.
In the future it will be better for things made of some composites, but at the
end of the day there are so many necessary processes and materials to create
physical objects that 3D printing will always apply to niche objects. You
can't print a coffee maker reasonably with any machine (glass? heating
element? electronics, etc?) much less an iPhone.

Furthermore, there will increasingly be a software layer. I imagine HN readers
are familiar with the economics of the software industry, but I'd just say
that if physical objects adopt a software model (freemium, charge for updates,
etc), and can do away with global supply chains etc, that will be a net _win_
, not some destructive, music-industry-scale disaster.

That said, I love 3D printing and use it all the time. But it's only useful
for customized, on-demand, or one-off stuff. It's already a burden to curate
your own goods -- that's what people who are into, say, fashion spend time on
-- who really believes we're all going to spend all day customizing our
things? Unrealistic.

So, no. Gotta say I don't agree.

~~~
fit2rule
I used to listen to "good quality music" \- classical. Then someone introduced
me to "lesser quality music" \- jazz. Then I started making my own crappy
music - synthesizers and samplers.

I've thoroughly enjoyed everything so far!

So the same is true of 3d printing. I used to buy high-quality parts for my RC
planes. Now I just print my own for less than 0.1% of the original cost. The
planes still fly, I'm still having fun.

