
China overtakes U.S. for healthy lifespan: WHO data - Element_
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-lifespan/china-overtakes-us-for-healthy-lifespan-who-data-idUSKCN1IV15L
======
ludston
Congratulations to China and the Chinese people who have managed to measurably
improve their livelihoods over the last few decades.

~~~
joe_the_user
As a developing nation, China should indeed be experiencing an increased
lifespan. But under normal circumstances, China's life expectancy increases
should be getting closer and close to the curve of developed nations without
actually touching - because all countries should be making progress.

So the obvious story here is the actual decrease in US life expectancy, a
situation broadly reflecting declining living conditions in the US.

~~~
Andre_Wanglin
>So the obvious story here is the actual decrease in US life expectancy, a
situation broadly reflecting declining living conditions in the US.

True, however complicated by the obesity pandemic. Some informed estimates
posit that by 2030 the majority of Americans will not be merely overweight but
outright obese. [0] That alone is surely sufficient to retard and revert the
US life expectancy.

[0]
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22608371](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22608371)

~~~
brownbat
Recent declines are largely attributable to opioids.

After that, suicides and alcohol are major contributors.

[https://www.vox.com/science-and-
health/2017/9/20/16338996/dr...](https://www.vox.com/science-and-
health/2017/9/20/16338996/drug-overdoses-life-expectancy)

But yeah, the opioid epidemic is so large it's noticeably shifting overall
mortality stats.

Obesity related mortality actually improved from 2000 to 2015, though possibly
as a result of better interventions, I'm not sure.

~~~
dv_dt
I sort of feel like the contributors are a cluster of symptomatic problems all
rooted in inequality, from lack of universal healthcare, to more people in
prison than any nation (where prisoners then get substandard health care), to
underfunding of wages to an increasing underclass. It seems we have this storm
of rising problems in the US.

------
gggibi08
This study is backward looking; it hasn't taken account of China's current set
of factors that could skew the lifespan down tremendously for average Chinese
citizens. Factors such as

1.) Air pollution. In your typical big cities, e.g Beijing, it average AQI
100-150 for the past 10+ years
[https://young-0.com/airquality/](https://young-0.com/airquality/). In other
lower tiered cities, it average between 50-100. Just to compare, WHO recommend
only AQI of 25 in 24 hour span to be ok for your health. And even though
recently Beijing's AQI has gone down, what the government has done is they
pushed the coal-burning factories into the countryside, and moving the
pollutions there.

2.) Water pollution. Cancer causing ingredients have been found in several
water sources. for example: "Shanghai water supply hit by 100-tonne wave of
garbage " \- [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/23/shanghai-
water...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/23/shanghai-water-supply-
hit-by-100-tonne-wave-of-garbage) [https://qz.com/113751/only-3-of-shanghais-
river-and-lake-wat...](https://qz.com/113751/only-3-of-shanghais-river-and-
lake-water-is-clean-enough-for-household-use/)

3.) Smoking/smokers everywhere. "Smoking Will Kill 200 Million In China This
Century" [https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/smoking-will-
kill-200-m...](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/smoking-will-
kill-200-million-in-china-this-century-report-
says_us_58f26221e4b0da2ff8612b55)

~~~
intopieces
All valid points. The good news is that China has big ideas for dealing with
these, and will actually implement them.

I have no love for the CCP. I think they are an oppressive regime that unduly
subjects their people to censorship and control. But I do respect that they
invest in infrastructure and solving big problems for their people.

The US seems to have given up. It seems to think that the problems we face are
unsolvable by cooperation and have resigned us to crumbling roads, poor health
outcomes and failing schools so corporations can flourish.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
The CPC has always had big plans for solving air pollution and smoking
problems, ever since I started living there in 2007. Each campaign
subsequently failed, so they don’t have a great track record on actually
“getting things done.” Maybe it’s different this time, but a healthy dose of
skepticism is definitely warranted.

Once my wife was pregnant, we had to leave Beijing, there was no way the air
pollution problem would have been solved in time, even if the air got twice as
clean it would still be way too much. Say what you want about the USA, but
being able to open my windows everyday is incredibly liberating.

~~~
intopieces
The Economist says the opposite: [https://www.economist.com/the-economist-
explains/2018/01/25/...](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-
explains/2018/01/25/how-china-cut-its-air-pollution)

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Are you saying that this article makes the claim that the government has
successfully dealt with the problem or just that the current campaign seems to
be effective?

------
drcode
I assume the WHO relies on local census & medical data to generate these
statistics (the Reuters piece doesn't have a citation on ths) so I'd take this
data with a grain of salt until we hear more details about the methodology.

~~~
adventured
I agree. Although, it also wouldn't be terribly surprising for China to pass
the US on this metric.

When you look at the obesity numbers:

US 36%, New Zealand 31%, Canada 29%, Australia 29%, UK 28%, Israel 26%,
Ireland 25%

Thailand 10%, Indonesia 7%, China 6%, Philippines 6%, South Korea, 5%, Vietnam
2%

Vietnam's life expectancy will overtake the US in the next 10-15 years as well
most likely (they're about three years behind). In most cases if you prevent
people from starving or suffering serious malnutrition, provide a basic level
of healthcare & sanitation, and have single digit obesity levels, you'll
almost automatically see 75-80 year life expectancies.

South Korea's life expectancy went from 65 years, to 82 years currently, from
just 1980 to 2015. They passed the US around 2003. South Korea's GDP per
capita was $14,000 at that time, versus $40,000 for the US. One would expect
China to have no problem replicating that.

It's a small wonder life expectancies in the developed, high obesity countries
are as high as they are. The US is no doubt expending hundreds of billions of
dollars extra per year on healthcare as a consequence of its obesity level
(cancer, disability, diabetes, etc).

~~~
dv_dt
It's not just obesity that drives poor US life expectancy performance.
Mexico's life expectancy is projected to rise meet the US life expectancy by
2030, and they're a nation with a fairly high obesity percentage.

[https://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/22/us-life-expectancy-is-low-
an...](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/22/us-life-expectancy-is-low-and-is-now-
projected-to-be-on-par-with-mexico-by-2030.html)

We have to acknowledge that the lack of Universal Healthcare in the US is a
big driver of our poor life expectancy showing.

~~~
adventured
Without question. The US for example had a higher life expectancy than New
Zealand during the 1980s, then the US began to trail off and fall behind. Now
it's ~2.7 years behind New Zealand. The US was also ahead of the UK as
recently as 1983.

What changed? A few big things. Healthcare in the US became wildly expensive
after the 1980s, following an extreme cost increase far beyond inflation,
whereas before it was not far out of line vs other developed nations (eg share
of GDP spent on healthcare; today it's commonly 2x the next closest nations on
cost). And obesity exploded dramatically higher after the early to mid 1980s.
Diets overloaded with sugar, carbs, high fructose corn syrup in everything,
drive thrus as a routine, etc.

I do believe universal healthcare would have prevented that life expectancy
gap from opening up between the US and the UK, Canada, New Zealand and
Australia. Based on the expectancy increase path the US was on as recently as
the early 1980s, it should be at 82-83 years now, rather than 78.x.

~~~
indemnity
I also found it interesting to see what the insurance companies predicted my
lifespan will be given I was born in 1980, don’t smoke, am fit & live in New
Zealand.

Apparently the actuaries reckon I’ll make it to 91 and wife to 94.

------
theparanoid
The US lifespan is decreasing due to opioid overdoses. Similar to Russia in
the 90's with alcohol.

~~~
kawaiikouhai
A quick google search would show this is untrue. Opioid overdoses kill 40,000
a year. 2.7 million Americans die per year.

Even if you were talking about a decrease in healthy lifespan, Opioids do not
generally cause a person to transition from healthy to unhealthy (they are
prescribed to treat a preexisting condition).

Sources:

[https://www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/index.html](https://www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/index.html)

[https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm)

~~~
nostrademons
That's not necessarily a disproof - if opioids are killing people who are
disproportionately young, then they could have an outsize effect on life
expectancy. Say life expectancy is 79 years. If a new cause of death occurs
that affects 10% of the population and kills, on average, at age 78, then life
expectancy goes down to 78.9. If a new cause of death occurs that affects 10%
of the population and kills at age 29, then life expectancy goes down to 74.
Same reason that infant mortality had a disproportionate affect on life
expectancy: the numbers of deaths might be small, but the reduction in
lifespan is large.

Personally I would bet on obesity being a bigger contributor to declining
lifespans than opioids, but I'm just showing that raw numbers of deaths cannot
automatically disprove the hypothesis that a decline in lifespan is due to
opioids.

~~~
OscarCunningham
For a cause of death affecting 40000/2700000 it could only reduce life
expectancy from 79 to 77.8, even if all the victims were age 0.

EDIT: I suppose it could be lowered a bit more if all those who died were
those who would otherwise have lived longest.

~~~
bpicolo
> I suppose it could be lowered a bit more if all those who died were those
> who would otherwise have lived longest.

That would average out in a population size of 40k

~~~
OscarCunningham
No, I mean there could be some actual effect that selected for those people.

For example if rich people were culturally more likely to use heroin than poor
people, then overdoses would lower the life expectancy more than you would
expect, because rich people (when not overdosing on heroin) have better access
to medical care and hence longer life expectancy.

------
ShabbosGoy
It’s not surprising. The stereotypical American is obese and not too
intelligent when it comes to dealing with that problem. See the whole “fat
shaming” movement for a prime example of this.

------
poster123
"Asian-Americans outlive whites by an average of nearly 8 years" according to
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4567918/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4567918/)
. Differences in life expectancy across countries are probably due to both
genetic and social factors.

~~~
muddyrivers
Diet might be another important factor. Asian tend to have balanced meals that
include significant amounts of vegetables, fish, seafood, etc.

I think the condition is improving. More and more people realize the
importance of balanced meals. It shows in grocery stores. They stock more
variety of vegetables and fish than before.

------
dynofuz
Source
[http://www.who.int/gho/mortality_burden_disease/life_tables/...](http://www.who.int/gho/mortality_burden_disease/life_tables/hale/en/)

------
skookumchuck
> life expectancy at birth

This can be affected by how one defines birth. The US, for example, goes to
fairly heroic lengths to save premature babies, and counts those that fail as
infant mortality, whereas other countries may classify them as miscarriages.

A more portable figure would be life expectancy at one year.

~~~
pjc50
.. but is apparently fairly terrible at saving mothers?
[https://edition.cnn.com/2017/11/15/opinions/op-ed-christy-
tu...](https://edition.cnn.com/2017/11/15/opinions/op-ed-christy-turlington-
burns-every-mother-counts-2017/index.html)

------
weliketocode
Even assuming that this data is flawless, I have a disdain for articles with
such surface coverage of a topic.

This article brings you so many questions about the methodology used that it
is hard to even begin to consider implications...ie:

What defines healthy life vs non-healthy life? Are current and expected levels
of pollution, drug/alcohol dependences, and depression being considered? Is
this including some sort of happiness/satisfaction measure? Does this include
premature births which could the skew the US numbers lower if China is not
including them?

------
droidist2
This map shows the life expectancy of different Chinese provinces in terms of
other countries: [https://www.economist.com/china/2015/10/31/noodles-of-
longev...](https://www.economist.com/china/2015/10/31/noodles-of-longevity)

------
wazoox
_The United States was one of only five countries, along with Somalia,
Afghanistan, Georgia and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, where healthy life
expectancy at birth fell in 2016..._ _Meanwhile U.S. life expectancy is
falling, having peaked at 79 years in 2014, the first such reversal for many
years..._

This is also inequality and poverty taking their toll. May it be sign? In
1976, Emmanuel Todd announced the coming fall of USSR from its dropping life
expectancy and other poor demographic results.

~~~
i_am_nomad
Poverty is one of the US’s major imports.

------
patrickg_zill
Drop out the recent immigrants, as China has virtually no net immigration. Do
the numbers change?

~~~
tysonzni
No it does not. From NIH study:
([https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5026916/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5026916/))

>We use high-quality linked Social Security and Medicare records to estimate
life tables for the older U.S. population over the full range of birth
regions. In 2000–2009, the foreign-born had a 2.4-year advantage in life
expectancy at age 65 relative to the U.S.-born, with Asian-born subgroups
displaying exceptionally high longevity. Foreign-born individuals who migrated
more recently had lower mortality compared with those who migrated earlier.
Nonetheless, we also find remarkable similarities in life expectancy among
many foreign-born subgroups that were born in very different geographic and
socioeconomic contexts (e.g., Central America, western/eastern Europe, and
Africa).

------
albertgao
As a Chinese, I should say, well, fucking CCP, just another bribe

------
johan_larson
Any idea how honestly China reports these statistics?

~~~
tysonzni
I don't know how China collect its public health statistics, but its economics
numbers have been extensively studied. And the consensus is that its official
GDP growth figures were overstated historically (by as much as 67%), but had
been mostly accurate post-1996.

Study: [https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-
economist/s...](https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-
economist/second-quarter-2017/chinas-economic-data-an-accurate-reflection-or-
just-smoke-and-mirrors)

------
timwaagh
a very short trip in vietnam made me realise i dont want to be in the
netherlands for the rest of my life. there's better places out there.

------
diefunction
yes, China surpass US in a new sphere. When would those comparisons stop ??

------
kizer
Healthy and subject to a "social credits" system. I'd rather be morbidly obese
than have the government force me to play a social status game.

~~~
wetpaws
Pretty much every single being on this planet is playing social status game,
all China did is put a number on it.

~~~
ekianjo
A government issued number. Thats the key difference. In the real world you
can move in the country and start anew somewhere else.

~~~
pphysch
How is this functionally different than e.g. a criminal or financial record?

If you can escape these, you can escape other government records.

~~~
txcwpalpha
To add to those examples: standardized test scores (like those for college
admissions), education records (including collegiate degrees), health records,
residency records, credit scores, driving records are all permanent records
that are maintained by organizations that are either governmental or no better
than a govt org.

I'm not a fan of China's system either, but it's silly to act like it's
something new. Nearly every citizen of any first world country has a huge set
of permanent records being compiled on them, not just those in China.

~~~
briandear
My SAT score doesn’t dictate if I can board an airplane. My credit score
doesn’t affect me getting a passport. Comparing China’s social credit system
to US records is completely off base.

~~~
txcwpalpha
Your records certainly can affect you getting a passport. Depending on your
criminal past, you may be banned from getting a passport. Similarly, some
countries (Canada comes to mind) will ban you from entering the country for
things as small as running a stop sign while driving. You can also be banned
from getting a passport if you are behind on your taxes or child support
payments.

As for getting on a plane, all of the above apply too, as well as the fact
that you can be barred from flying simply by having a certain last name. Your
personal records also affect things like how easy it is for you to get through
customs and airport security. Global Entry/TSA PreCheck, for example, will be
completely off-limits to you if you have 'questionable' travel records in your
past.

Pretending the US/EU doesn't already have the Chinese social credit system in
place is sticking your head in the sand. All China has done is formalize it.

------
esturk
So what I'm getting from this statistic is that in China, if you get old and
sick, that's probably the end. In US, if you get old and sick, you might have
a few more years. Albeit with lower QoL. I'm actually ok with that.

~~~
beedogs
And in any other Western country, you'll both live longer and have a higher
quality of life.

------
asdsa5325
How is this article related to Hacker News?

~~~
swebs
>Hacker News Guidelines

>What to Submit

>On-Topic: Anything that good hackers would find interesting. That includes
more than hacking and startups. If you had to reduce it to a sentence, the
answer might be: anything that gratifies one's intellectual curiosity.

>Off-Topic: Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, unless they're
evidence of some interesting new phenomenon. Videos of pratfalls or disasters,
or cute animal pictures. If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-
topic.

[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html)

~~~
noncoml
"If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-topic."

~~~
TheSpiceIsLife
That might have been a relevant metric 10 years ago, but all sorts of tech and
health news now gets screen time.

------
baybal2
And US has universal health insurance, while China doesn't

~~~
asdsa5325
US does not have universal health insurance.

~~~
baybal2
Isn't medicare de-facto universal?

~~~
rpearl
no.

~~~
baybal2
Then I apologise

