
The next outbreak? we’re not ready (2015) [video] - savrajsingh
https://youtu.be/6Af6b_wyiwI
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mindfulplay
It's interesting to look back at these sort of prescient events and laud the
people who got it right and ignore all the people that 'got it wrong'.

However in Bill Gates' case, he really was being realistic and not prescient
given his close work with global healthcare. He must have seen up close how
fragile this whole setup was.

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throwaway5752
Let's discard present circumstances, then, and notice that he just resigned
from his board seats with Microsoft and Berkshire to focus all of his energy
on climate change. He is treating that far more seriously than he treated
pandemic preparedness.

Also, we should forever be thankful that such a mild version of the
coronavirus mutated a structural upgrade like the furin cleavage site. If this
had happened with SARS, MERS, or a hemorrhagic fever it could have been real
trouble.

~~~
petilon
> _to focus all of his energy on climate change._

Not true. Press release says "global health, development, education, and his
increasing engagement in tackling climate change".

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facethrowaway
How is this some sort of prescient statement? There have been movies made
about this exact issue for decades. On a societal level, it is a bug marked
WONTFIX similar to preparing for asteroid impact, the next Big One in SF (come
on guys, we _arent_ prepared for it), the next volcano, large scale terrorist
attack using chemical weapons, and so on.

It seems nobody has a memory to remember that Microsoft hobbled local
governments attempts to build and use open source software instead of paying
their tax. In a way, you’re basically thanking Bill Gates for redistributing a
small fraction of the money he’s stolen from global governments through the
Microsoft monopoly.

If you think this is a conspiracy theory go talk to IT staff who worked in the
German government in the late 90s.

~~~
Ididntdothis
“How is this some sort of prescient statement? There have been movies made
about this exact issue for decades. On a societal level, it is a bug marked
WONTFIX similar to preparing for asteroid impact, the next Big One in SF (come
on guys, we arent prepared for it), the next volcano, large scale terrorist
attack using chemical weapons, and so on.”

Exactly. A lot of people know the risks but we are not willing to pay for
preparedness.

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wintorez
We're not ready for anything, because most of our decision-makers are short-
sighted, and populist. Long-term decision making requires long-term thinking
which is not compatible with our current economic and political models.

~~~
pintxo
Let’s add our media model in here as well, although it’s also a subset of our
economic model.

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notRobot
Full title:

Bill Gates: The next outbreak? We're not ready. (2015) [video]

Also watch: What Bill Gates is afraid of:
[https://youtu.be/9AEMKudv5p0](https://youtu.be/9AEMKudv5p0)

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notRobot
_" In fact, if there's one positive thing that can come out of the Ebola
epidemic, it's that it can serve as an early warning – a wake-up call – to get
ready. If we start now, we can be ready for the next epidemic"_

He said this in 2015. No one listened.

~~~
Ididntdothis
This reminds me of the financial crisis in 2008. A ton of people knew what was
going on and issued warnings but not many listened. What I don’t like is the
effort to make some people like Gates into heroes that saw what nobody else
saw. Public health experts warned for decades that we are not prepared but
nobody wanted to pay for action.

~~~
bdcravens
> What I don’t like is the effort to make some people like Gates into heroes
> that saw what nobody else saw

Though I suspect if it was Elon Musk who said the same thing, there would be
no shortage of hero worship.

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slowmovintarget
Have we found his underwater lair yet? He's trying very hard to be a comic-
book mega-industrialist. But his kind of character seems far more like a Bond
villain. Dr. Not Yet?

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chiefalchemist
We've known for quite some time that globalization and air travel creates
risks. Those who benefit from that model haven't been concerned; profits have
been priority #1. The rest of have been complacent and complicit.

I'm surprised anyone is surprised.

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fulafel
Yep, it's worrying how little people question the continuing growth of air
travel given both its climate and public health damages.

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buboard
i wonder if this crisis will set up a long-term discussion about this issue
from now on

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slowmovintarget
I'm more interested in whether we address supply-chain and infrastructure
fragility. Not for economic reasons, but for overall survival and quality of
life issues.

Imagine this sort of thing going on contemporaneously with people fleeing
coastal cities due to flooding.

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buboard
not sure how fragile it is, frankly logistics is very robust (and has been
since the middle ages). Even with centralization it survives multiple trade
wars at this moment. And it depends a lot on information tech which is also
robust.

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Ididntdothis
I think anybody who worked in that area and was honest would have said the
same thing.

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buboard
Maybe that's why its not crazy to consider conspiracy theories about the
nature of this virus. It would be beneficial for humanity in the long term to
shift e.g. from cyberwarfare defense spending to biowarfare defense. The side
benefits of the first are at best marginal , while a massive shift of
investment to biodefense would be life-changing

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breatheoften
What percentage of bio defense funding will end up going into the bio-
equivalent of pen testing and red teams ...? At some point some loon in power
will chant “The best biodefense is a good biooffense” ...

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buboard
it will inevitably come to this. but we also live in a world of deterrence
through mutual destruction, not defense

