

National Intelligence Estimate: The Chinese Cultural Revolution (1967) [pdf] - ca98am79
http://www.foia.cia.gov/sites/default/files/document_conversions/89801/DOC_0001095914.pdf

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snake_plissken
It's interesting to look back at the Cultural Revolution with an intelligence
document like this that was written in the beginning of it. Its analysis and
predictions are very accurate in many ways (especially the parts about Zhou
Enlai, Maoist Dogmas eventually disappearing) but in it fails to express the
significance and and potency of what was going on, which is understandable as
I don't think anyone really thought it would last the better part of ten
years. It's amazing one man was able to cause such drastic changes in the
different structures of a country the way Mao did.

I've always found that the most enlightening aspect of the Cultural Revolution
is that many of the principles it was against eventually became defining
aspects of post-Mao China. As a social revolution, it seems to be alone in
this regard. I am unsure if this outcome is surprising or not, as the Four
Modernizations were originally proposed in 1963.

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pavlov
_... many of the principles it was against eventually became defining aspects
of post-Mao China. As a social revolution, it seems to be alone in this
regard._

Maybe I misunderstand what you're saying, but isn't that the typical outcome
of revolutions? Something along the lines of "thesis - antithesis -
synthesis", I guess.

If you look at the French Revolution, the post-Revolution society in France
oscillated between the Royalist and Republican extremes for the better part of
two centuries before settling on a balance where both the left and right
segments of French politics can today claim to be inheritors of the
Revolution.

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fndrplayer13
This was a pretty good read.

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notastartup
What really happened during this time? I often hear about it but not sure what
was experienced by the Chinese people and what the long term effects were.

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a3n
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Revolution)

I have had this described to me by people who lived through it. They were
relocated to the countryside as slave labor, as described in the wikipedia
page. It was a bad time.

"The Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution, commonly known as the Cultural
Revolution, was a social-political movement that took place in the People's
Republic of China from 1966 until 1976. ... The movement paralyzed China
politically and significantly affected the country economically and socially.

...

Millions of people were persecuted in the violent factional struggles that
ensued across the country, and suffered a wide range of abuses including
public humiliation, arbitrary imprisonment, torture, sustained harassment, and
seizure of property. A large segment of the population was forcibly displaced,
most notably the transfer of urban youth to rural regions during the Down to
the Countryside Movement. Historical relics and artifacts were destroyed.
Cultural and religious sites were ransacked."

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gnu8
Remember when the intelligence community produced useful work, instead of
playing with armed drones and spying on kids' cell phone nudes?

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krschultz
I don't doubt they continue to write these kind of documents, we've just added
the other 'responsibilities' to their budget.

~~~
trhway
looking at the events that took all by surprise - 9/11, Sunny insurgence and
sectarian violence in Iraq in ~2004, Arabian Spring, ISIS - i'd say that the
"responsibilities" replaced instead of having been added.

