

For Y Combinator startups, the average Series A is 5x larger than in 2008 - dmor
http://mattermark.com/y-combinator-series-a-average-round-size/

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minimaxir
> _I also thought it would be interesting to remove the time aspect and simply
> look at these Series A rounds as a progression of deals, regardless of when
> they took place. This graph looks at the 10 deal moving average of Series A
> round size._

That's not how moving averages work. You can't just take an unordered
univariate and smooth it however you want.

You argue in your first chart that time is a relevant factor; therefore, you
must smooth as a time series for that analysis to make any sense. (which
wouldn't make sense in this case anyways, due to the nonconsistancy in timing
of seed funding.)

Also, the annotations in the first chart make absolutely no sense since they
are not relevant in any way. (unless you are asserting that correlation of
these events implies the causation of the increase, which is _very bad logic_
unless you have proof otherwise)

~~~
dmor
My thinking here is that YC would try to get better at helping companies with
their Series A with each deal... regardless of what amount of time elapsed
between these deals. I think it fits well with the way investors think about
the learning process, which is why I tried it out.

Regarding annotations in the 1st chart, they are to set context for readers
who do not necessarily follow major milestones in the private markets
landscape.

~~~
minimaxir
It's faulty logic, because you can't isolate the impact of YC has the _sole
contributory variable_ for the amount of Series A. Otherwise, you're asserting
that correlation implies causation.

There are _many_ other contributory factors in the raising of a Series A and
why the amount has increased over the years, one major one of which is the
fact that the US economy has vastly improved since the Great Recession of 2008
and investor confidence has rebounded. (notice the huge dip in the year of
2008)

Chart annotations usually indicate events which have a causal, identifiable
effect on the data that the user would otherwise question as odd without an
explination, which is why adding the annotations only confuses your point.

~~~
dmor
I didn't assert that.

------
xiaoma
The first graph would have been clearer if the two sets of labels for the
vertical axis were the same color as the lines they referred to.

As for the trend itself, it's probably due to overall market trends, and the
increasing prestige and network effects YC companies receive as the number of
them increase.

~~~
dmor
I looked into the market trend question, and it looks like YC Series A is
trending up significantly faster than the market as a whole.

Graph:
[https://twitter.com/DanielleMorrill/status/49357608066654208...](https://twitter.com/DanielleMorrill/status/493576080666542080)

