
LA Mayor closes movie theaters, bars, nightclubs, entertainment venues, gyms - ceohockey60
https://deadline.com/2020/03/los-angeles-mayor-eric-garcetti-bars-restaurants-close-1202883916/
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aphextron
> "However, the good news is that 75% of the tests coming back from county
> labs are negative."

How on earth is this good news? 25% of people coming back positive sounds
absolutely insane.

~~~
jfoutz
This is pure speculation based on incomplete and casually arranged data, feel
free to dismiss me as a crackpot.

The U.S. really didn't have any capacity to test for months. Only recently, a
small amount of testing has become possible. Oklahoma burned up nearly its
entire daily ration to test the Utah Jazz, for example.

I'd guess the biases in place would indicate whoever is able to authorize
tests had a fairly broad view of "who has ncovid" so they're burning their
tests on a broad array of very sick patients.

It's good news, because whoever can authorize testing will gain experience
about what severe cases really look like. Fewer critical but non infected
patients will be tested, so more tests can be used for less severe or possibly
even asymptomatic cases.

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jupp0r
I wonder whether this will be enough to sufficiently reduce infection rates or
if stricter measures will be required. It’s really like driving in the dark
with so few test being performed. By the time we realize that it’s not enough,
it might be too late. There is a 2 week delay in the feedback loop.

~~~
ericd
Not a doctor, but it seems pretty obvious from the state of our testing and
what's happened in Italy that everyone who is able needs to be self-
quarantining, now. Not like avoiding nightclubs, but more like avoiding
leaving their houses. We need to do something as closely resembling what China
did as we can bear. Since that seems unlikely to come from the top for a bit,
we need to start heavy social pressure on each other.

~~~
jupp0r
I agree with you but nothing I see around me in SoCal makes me think voluntary
self isolation is going to cut it.

~~~
ericd
I agree, the gym next door is still hosting dance classes. Just a way of
trying to slow it a bit. But it's going to take a formal lockdown.

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not_a_moth
Want to play devil's advocate

Closing all schools, closing gyms, closing restaurants

It's obvious we can't contain the virus

A ton of otherwise healthy adults and children, not at risk from virus, are
going to damage their health both mental and physical to "flatten the curve"
for the sake of the elderly

How about a different protocol: Society resumes per normal and if you're
elderly or high risk, stay indoors and avoid contact until there's herd
immunity, which given transmissibility could happen quickly

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bflesch
Problem is until we reach "herd immunity" it will overwhelm the healthcare
system and many people die unneccessarily due to degrading quality of
treatment.

~~~
not_a_moth
If won't overwhelm if the elderly or high risk are isolated and protocols are
strict with that segment

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maccam94
There is still risk for people outside the high-risk segment.

Let's say that it's only 0.2% risk of death without a ventilator for the
general population (based on
[https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-11/covid-19...](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-11/covid-19-risk-
healthy-young-person)). Let's say in the USA that we're talking 150M infected
people who aren't high risk (65% or ~200M of the population is between 15-65).
That's 300,000 people who will need ventilators (potentially for multiple
weeks -- [https://www.uchicagomedicine.org/forefront/prevention-and-
sc...](https://www.uchicagomedicine.org/forefront/prevention-and-screening-
articles/wuhan-coronavirus)).

"The latest study available estimates there are about 62,000 ventilators in
hospitals nationwide. That figure is seven years old — so the actual number
could be higher." \-- [https://www.npr.org/sections/health-
shots/2020/03/14/8156756...](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-
shots/2020/03/14/815675678/as-the-pandemic-spreads-will-there-be-enough-
ventilators)

So yeah, you don't want all of those infections happening the same month or
else hundreds of thousands of people will die.

