
The Future of the Tablet, and It Isn’t the iPad 2 - pitdesi
http://www.fastcompany.com/1736602/the-future-of-the-tablet-and-it-isn-t-the-ipad-2?partner=rss
======
zdw
The future of the tablet:

\- Nobody will beat Apple on price until manufacturing ramps up so they get
parts at competitive rates, or they pull a game console and sell hardware for
a loss.

\- Because people buy on price, they'll buy Apple, and thus will obtain apps
on that platform, and get used to the interface.

\- Because of past investment and comfort, people will keep buying iPads.

To win as a non-Apple tablet company:

\- Develop a great product , with a great interface and bleeding edge tech, at
price parity or better prices than Apple, then announce it and ship within a
few weeks (so you don't end up in HP or RIM's situation - product announced,
Apple leapfrogs you even before you ship).

\- Give a few thousand hardware units to developers who are known to turn out
great stuff, see what happens.

\- Pray that you don't have any major problems and that people are willing to
take a chance on you.

\- Support that product with firmware updates, make promises as such, so
people don't feel like next year they'll be abandoned.

~~~
pitdesi
Agreed... It's somewhat analogous to the smartphone wars... Apple has created
a new product category and it will take others some time to catch up. I think
android will catch up to the iPad sooner than it did for the iPhone though (3
years).

~~~
zdw
I doubt this, only because the markets are different

\- Phones are considered a "necessary" item whereas tablets are a more
optional purchase, especially if you already have a laptop or similar.

\- People also are used to upgrading their phones at end of contract, and
getting whatever the "new thing" is. Often, on non AT&T, this meant whatever
Android phone you could get.

\- Phones are subsidized by the phone companies (at least in the US), thus
hiding the true hardware cost.

\- Tablets parts are in shorter supply, and more costly except for in volume,
and nobody but Apple is shipping tablets in volume.

Because of the above, current Android tablets are screwed. Future Android
tablets might do better once the manufacturing volume for tablet sized parts
is established and prices get driven down.

------
nopassrecover
Reposted (<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2304858>). This was first.

------
bobds
Am I the only one that is seeing a severely mangled page here? Must be a
strange bug.

<http://i.imgur.com/qROl4.png>

I'm running the latest Firefox 3 (with NoScript). And before you blame
NoScript, here it is with JS and friends enabled:
<http://i.imgur.com/JzPGP.png>

Edit: Never mind, it was NoScript blocking a couple of the countless embedded
scripts. I think the culprit was addthis.com/sharethis.com.

------
cpr
_While other companies could try to leapfrog Apple in the race to the "mature"
tablet, they face a company that has been wizened by failure. The big
difference between Apple today and the Apple that lost to Microsoft in the
personal computer market over two decades ago is that Apple allows other
companies to create software--now called applications--for its device._

I can't make sense of this statement. Apple certainly had third-party
developers on Mac OS (Classic) since the beginning. Makes the rest of the
article somewhat suspect.

 _If not, then it is up to a competitor with enough foresight and financial
wherewithal to leapfrog the iPad 2 and re-conceptualize the tablet as a
productivity tool instead of as an entertainment tool._

The iPad has the most serious and capable productivity tools ever seen on a
non-stylus tablet to date: Pages, Keynote and Numbers. What are they talking
about?

~~~
dhimes
Yeah- in fact, an early mac developer was...wait for it... Microsoft

------
mikelbring
I personally think webOS as an OS is better in tablet form than iOS.

~~~
pitdesi
Can you elaborate? I haven't seen it.

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cabose07
Wasn't the Kno canceled and is trying to sell off its hardware? Yet somehow it
is the future....

------
cletus
We live in interesting times.

Apple created the iPhone. Now every (smart) phone looks like an iPhone.
Android has equaled or exceeded iPhone shipments through a combination of
factors (lower price points, more carriers in the US and so forth).

Apple reinvented the tablet as a capacitive touch device very much like the
iPhone. Everyone copies that design. People predict the same outcome in the
tablet market as happened in the phone market.

I disagree, for several reasons:

Firstly, the base functionality for a phone is much higher than that of a
tablet. A phone can make and receive calls, make and receive SMSs and (in the
category we're talking about) browse the Web. At that point you've covered
over 90% of the usage of most people.

Tablets are (IMHO) a different beast. I haven't seen stats on this (I'd love
to, if they exist) but I would guess, as an iPad (and iPhone) owner, two
things:

1\. A greater percentage of iPad owners buy apps than iPhone owners;

2\. iPad owners buy a larger number of apps than iPhone owners;

3\. iPad apps on average cost more (although this gap is narrowing and will
probably disappear); and

4\. iPad users spend more time in nonstandard (standard being mail, maps,
photos and Web browser) than smart phone users.

If true--and I stress again that the above is my _guess_ \--the conclusion you
reach is that the apps, and the infrastructure that goes around that
(including payment and developer ecosystems) are far more important in the
tablet market than the phone market.

Secondly, in the US at least, people generally choose carrier first and
handset second. In all places, people first make a decision around having
mobile phone service (and usage) and then buy a handset/plan.

Tablets on the other hand are primarily used at home or in the office. While
3G models sell very well and people have 3G data services, I would guess that
the overwhelming majority of iPad usage is on Wifi, unlike phones.

Third, Apple is leading the market on _price_. What kind of topsy-turvy world
do we live in where Apple leads the market on _price_?

Apple has beautifully designed products with the best ecosystem that lead the
market on price. How exactly is this not Apple's game to lose?

Drawing parallels between what happened in phones and what's happening in
tablets is (IMHO) foolish.

As for the OP's claims, there are four basic methods that we have for writing
stuff today:

1\. Audio and/or video recording;

2\. Using a physical keyboard and/or mouse;

3\. Using a touch surface; and

4\. Using pen and paper.

For students who want to take notes and so forth my opinion is that old-
fashioned pen and paper and the almost archaic keyboard will rule the roost
for some time to come. They just have inherent advantages in input speed and
flexibility. Even a stylus on a tablet just can't compete (IMHO).

------
edw519
_...then it is up to a competitor with enough foresight and financial
wherewithal to leapfrog the iPad 2 and re-conceptualize the tablet as a
productivity tool instead of as an entertainment tool._

It won't be a real "productivity tool" until it has a dock with a real
keyboard and a 32" display and can move seamlessly between desktop and
travelling modes.

I _really_ want to get rid of everything else. Anybody listening?

~~~
zdw
It sounds like you want the Moto Atrix, except everything (phone and docking
station) doubled in size.

