
Apple Watch Is and Isn’t - donmcc
http://www.mondaynote.com/2014/09/14/apple-watch-is-and-isnt/
======
cromwellian
Ok, you're stuck in an airport and bored. You flip out your 4.7" or 5.5"
phone. Can you spend an hour or more playing with it, consuming content, even
doing work? Yes you can.

Now, you're stuck in an airpot and bored. You keep your phone in your pocket
and stare at your watch with a 38mm screen. Can you imagine spending an hour
or two interacting with and consuming content on this thing?

These watches deliver the information density of WAP feature phones with
interactive models that are not much different (scroll wheel), plus panning
and zooming on a tiny screen.

The people projecting the launch of the 2007 era iPhone as an industry
defining moment that's going to kick off whole new app business models I think
are extrapolating without thinking about it.

These devices are primarily best suited for sensors, and for information
radiation tasks: notifying you of information and allowing quick response or
dismissal.

But a 300Mah "smart" device with a 38mm screen being something you're going to
spend a lot of time downloading apps and using "on the device itself" (and not
on the iPhone) I think is too far of an extrapolation.

Maybe I'm wrong and this will be claim chowder thrown in my face in a few
years, but to me, the trend towards bigger screens on phones is a perfectly
example of why these watches will always be limited.

Humans are visual creatures, and a device that has the screen size and
interactivity of a virtual tamagotchi is a fashion accessory toy, not
something we will build our whole life around like mobile phones and tablets.

~~~
spudlyo
The watch isn't meant to compete with your phone for content consumption, it's
for subtle notifications and alerts. Who is calling me? What meeting am I
going to in 10 minutes? Who just texted me? I see myself getting a completely
silent alert and then discretely glancing at my wrist during a meal or some
other time it would be inappropriate to be fiddling with my phone. I can
politely excuse myself if it's important.

I don't expect to watch a movie on it, I just want it to look stylish and help
me stay connected in a less douchey way. The fact that it may replace my Polar
heart strap and watch when I'm working out (Hopefully it's more reliable than
the Basis watch) is just icing on the cake.

I have a feeling there will be some interesting third party applications, off
the top of my head it might be nice to know when my boss is nearby, perhaps
based on strength of his phone's bluetooth signal.

~~~
bane
But I think that's kind of the point isn't it? Out of the box, the watch will
more or less do all the thing anybody really wants it to do. It's going to be
very hard to build a large viable app ecosystem for these things. At best I
think Smartwatch apps will just be secondary notification displays for apps
you're already buying and putting on your phone.

~~~
madeofpalk
Isn't that how it is though? Anyone expecting anything more is going to be
sorely disappointed.

I don't recall Apple pitching this as something you watch to play around with
for a couple of hours at an airport with.

~~~
bane
> I don't recall Apple pitching this as something you watch to play around
> with for a couple of hours at an airport with.

You're right, they didn't. But I'm hard pressed to figure out a great deal of
apps for the watch other than what's pretty much going to be shipping with it.
reddit mail notification? point to my car?

I dunno. It seems like there's a very limited ecosystem (read:business) to
spending lots of effort making Apple Watch apps for exactly the reason you're
stating.

------
CoolGuySteve
I think the problem is that when you talk to "watch guys", they're all after a
very specific aesthetic and functional goal. But that market is extremely
small and self selecting.

Meanwhile, the mass market watch is something very different (and nearly
extinct after the cell phone display accomplished the same goals).

So let's learn from two wildly successful watch brands in the 90s:

\- The information density on the Apple Watch display more comparable to
something like the Timex Ironman watches than a mechanical watch. Apple also
implies their watch can 'take a lickin' with their sapphire display and
completely encased motherboard design.

\- The ability to customize the bands and face designs is in line with Swatch
in the 90s. People will likely buy several band accessories the same way
Swatch's customers bought multiple Swatches.

The only thing not mass market about the Apple Watch is it's price.

I'm guessing the low end of the product line will fill out the same way the
iPhone did. They will keep all the tooling and production the same, but
gradually reduce the price to $100 while they work out the software kinks.

But in the end, the product will be amazingly successful because it has the
DNA of amazingly successful predecessors.

~~~
letstryagain
> I'm guessing the low end of the product line will fill out the same way the
> iPhone did. They will keep all the tooling and production the same, but
> gradually reduce the price to $100 while they work out the software kinks.

The iPhone's price did not drop over the years. The cheapest iPhone 6 you can
buy today is $650. The original iPhone launched at $600 back in 2007.

EDIT: I'll eat my hat if Apple ever sells a Watch for $100.

~~~
wodenokoto
The original iPhone was 600 dollars ON contract, which was later dropped to
500.

Yes, some people figured out how to crack the SIM-lock, so they could use a
different sim card and not activate the AT&T contract that you were supposed
to activate when first connecting it to iTunes, but that's an edge case that
doesn't change the fact that it was sold on contract.

The 650 dollar price for iphone 6 is OFF contract. So the iPhone price has
significantly dropped over the years.

~~~
shalmanese
The original iPhone was on contract but unsubsidized. The iPhone 3G was
launched at $199 with a 2 year contract and every iPhone since then has stuck
exactly at that price point at launch.

~~~
seanmcdirmid
You guys are only talking about the states right?

------
programminggeek
The only thing that is "wrong" so far is the price for the average user, but
so was the iPod, the iPhone, and my beloved MacBook Air. Give price a few
years and it will be a mass market $99 (nano) $199 (standard) $299
(pro/luxury).

So far there are 2 smart watches that have nailed the design the Moto 360 and
the Apple Watch. The rest have a ways to go.

A smart watch has to function pretty well as a nice looking fashion accessory
before it ever is going to do anything else useful.

~~~
nilkn
Personally, I think the Moto 360 is simply far too large. It looks fairly good
on someone with a very wide risk, but a little ridiculous on someone with a
small wrist (like me).

This is a problem with circular displays. They naturally have quite a smaller
area than the circumscribing square -- they're missing all four corners, every
one of which can be used for a UI element. To compensate, the display just
needs to be larger -- too large, in the case of the Moto 360, in my humble
opinion.

~~~
axaxs
You do realize that, inch for inch, a circle has the highest area/perimeter
ratio, right?

~~~
tzs
There are at least two constraints on wristwatch size. Let the Z axis be in
the direction of the thickness of the watch. Let the X axis be in the
direction parallel to your arm. Let the Y axis be perpendicular to the X axis
and the Z axis.

1\. You do not want it to extend along X axis too far toward the fingers, or
it will interfere with moving your hand at the wrist.

2\. You do not want to extend too far either way along the Y axis, or it will
be too easy to accidentally hit things with it.

The point of the post above yours is that if a circle with diameter D is an
acceptable size--it doesn't extend too far in the X or Y directions to
interfere with your wrist or hit things--then a square of side D will
generally also be acceptable. The square will give you more face area than the
circle.

------
threeseed
Most of the top shelf watches are going to be fine. It's the Casio, Seiko and
Swatches of the world that are going to be in trouble. As is every fitness
tracker or health monitor.

But the best quote for me is this one:

"In the future though I see a risk: a generational fracture. The old people,
you and me, sticking to the good old mechanical watches and the young people
sticking to digital watches - their comfort zone."

~~~
x0x0
I'm curious how good the heart rate tracking is. Most current fitness gadgets
suck terribly at tracking heart rate while exercising. afaik polar or garmin
plus a chest band is the only thing that does a good job, whereas most fitbit
type gadgets are only good at calculating resting heart rates. If apple can
crack that, they'll find a lot of purchasers. And garmin / polar will be
roadkill: their devices are expensive, single use, a big hassle (that damn
chest strap is annoying, plus now you have _two_ batteries to worry about),
with shitty software.

~~~
craigmccaskill
The heart monitor technology used via diodes on these smart watches isn't very
accurate. I can't seem to find the article I was reading but I remember a
roughly +/\- 10bpm error rate. That's also roughly what I've experienced
myself on the LG and Moto watches I've tried.

That said, if you buy a Garmin or similar heart tracker watch, they package it
with a Heart Rate monitor transmitter you strap around your chest. Garmin
would love to be able to cut costs and keep everything in one piece of
hardware, but the prosumer crowd who buy this hardware for Triathlons etc
would be furious if the product was inaccurate.

------
S_A_P
I see this being moderately successful for apple. This is probably one of the
first product launches that I saw where I thought all the work they did was
cool, but just can't see myself ever wearing one of these. In fact I stopped
wearing watches in general because I had a smartphone pocket watch. The less
jewelry I can have, the better...

~~~
bane
It's one of the few Apple products that really made me sit up and say "wow,
they _really_ produced something that's a better, more polished version than
the competitors, nicely done!".

And then I realize I got rid of watches when I start carrying a phone around
with a clock on it and have no interest in returning to wearing them at all. I
got rid of them for a reason, and the burden of pulling my phone out of my
pocket every once in a while isn't so bad that I feel the expense plus
discomfort of _any_ kind of watch is a good tradeoff.

------
mathattack
I find the most interesting thing about this article is the writer - Gassee. I
am curious what the opinion on him is from current Apple employees and Apple
watchers. Has time improved or hurt his reputation?

------
girzel
Seems like, if you've got Siri on your wrist, and voice recognition got a
little better, the screen would be much less of an issue.

