
Ask HN: How are we modeling the outbreak? - jt2190
Some U.S. states are now telling their citizens that they don’t need to be tested for COVID-19 except after consulting with a physician.<p>The U.S. government and media are reporting <i>confirmed</i> cases (an absolute number).<p>It <i>seems</i> like the government is using a statistical model to quantify the number of infected <i>without testing</i>. Does anyone here know what the model is? If not, are there models that are likely to be used in this case?
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jt2190
The Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard University has a
series of tweets that are a good introduction to epidemic modeling:
[https://twitter.com/CCDD_HSPH/status/1222257431230631936](https://twitter.com/CCDD_HSPH/status/1222257431230631936)

The tweet thread has a link to this paper at the National Center for
Biotechnology Information, U.S. National Library of Medicine: "How generation
intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive
numbers":
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1766383/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1766383/)

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kirubakaran
Here is a collection of few links I use to keep abreast of the situation:
[https://histre.com/pub/notebooks/bjzie1md/corona-virus-
stats...](https://histre.com/pub/notebooks/bjzie1md/corona-virus-stats/)

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jt2190
This HN thread gathered a few links to some data and graphs:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22642370](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22642370)

