
U.S. Legalization of Marijuana Has Hit Mexican Cartels’ Cross-Border Trade - adamnemecek
http://time.com/3801889/us-legalization-marijuana-trade/
======
jussij
Who would have expected that outcome?

Lets look back in history to see how well prohibition has worked in the past.

The exact same result happened back in the 1920's with the prohibition of
alcohol. The 1920's prohibition resulted in nothing more than the rise of the
Mafia.

Back in the 1920's there was similar waste of government money fighting
alcohol, only to see the rise in the power of the Mafia.

Move forward to today's 'war on drugs' and once again government is wasting
massive amounts of public money trying fighting a loosing war.

The harder the fight the richer the drug kings become.

But now the states decide to go softer on a 'war on what ever' and guess what,
the 'drug kings' once again start to loose money.

Nothing more than history repeating :(

~~~
baldfat
The only thing that makes me hesitate this popular view:

1) There was a mafia in Italy and US long before Prohibition and after
Prohibition

2) The violence and deaths of police officers in the US started to rise in
1900 and peaked at 1921 and declined for another 30 years.

3) Doesn't explain the statistical violence peaks of the 1970s and 1980s in
our society.

4) We are at one of the least violent and peaceful decades in US History

[1] Police deaths in London and NYC (I could use other markers just this was a
lazy first choice
[http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2586786/](http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2586786/)
[2] US Crime Rate (Which I would argue is flawed since the recording of crimes
prior to 1960s was not tracked in the same way as records are now kept after
JFK assassination [http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Justice/2012/0109/US-crime-
rate...](http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Justice/2012/0109/US-crime-rate-at-
lowest-point-in-decades.-Why-America-is-safer-now)

~~~
AndrewKemendo
3) Doesn't explain the statistical violence peaks of the 1970s and 1980s in
our society.

I don't think the OP was making any correlation with crime in the 70s and 80s.
You could however link that rise in crime to the spread of crack cocaine
through NYC and LA if you _really_ wanted to.

4) We are at one of the least violent and peaceful decades in US History

Interestingly enough, while that is true, our incarceration rate is the
highest ever and it started just as the drug war started. See also The New Jim
Crow [1]

[1] [http://newjimcrow.com/](http://newjimcrow.com/)

~~~
JohnTHaller
Lead poisoning due to leaded gasoline has been one of the more interesting
(and common sense) explanations of that rise and fall of crime.

~~~
InclinedPlane
And it's almost certainly bullshit. There is no correlation with crime rates
and lead exposure. The pattern observed is a massive spike in crime during the
'80s and '90s due to gang activity from the crack boom, which then falls back
down to '60s/'70s levels afterward. What you'd expect to see if lead exposure
was the problem is a very gradual increase over time and then a gradual tail
off as exposure reduced. Instead the homicide rate _doubled_ for folks under
25 between 1983 and 1993, and then fell back to 1980s levels by the early
2000s.

The background crime rate increase from the 1960s forward is more readily
explained by societal changes, as well as the start of the "war on drugs".

------
acd
When will we legalize the hard drugs? Treating drug users is better than
criminalizing them. I always compare drugs being illegal to the alcohol ban in
the 1930s and the mafia like Alcopone that rose during that time. Legalizing
all drugs is the way forward. Drug money is corrupting police and financing
weapons for terror organizations.

~~~
brazzy
> Treating drug users is better than criminalizing them.

Not having them become drug users in the first place would be even better.
Let's not forget that a lot of drugs really are seriously harmful

Criminalizing drug _use_ is fucking stupid, sure, but I also really don't want
to have big companies spend big advertising budgets on making people addicts.

~~~
doikor
Easy solution would be something like what we have here in Finland with
alcohol. Allow sales but ban all marketing. There done.

~~~
bko
I don't know how effective or practical banning advertising would be. I'm
reminded of the song CoCo by O.T. Genasis [0] that proclaims the rappers love
for cocaine.

That being said, drugs, including more dangerous drugs, are already very much
part of our culture and glorified everywhere from music to movies. De-
criminalizing them is the obvious course of path for harm-reduction and
diminishing the influence of organized crime.

[0] [http://genius.com/Ot-genasis-coco-lyrics](http://genius.com/Ot-genasis-
coco-lyrics)

~~~
math0ne
Interestingly if you really want to look into that song and the culture that
created it, it is extremely anti cocaine use. It's all about selling and
profiting from cocaine.

------
tempodox
This shouldn't come as a surprise. It's pure logic. The most efficient way to
fight crime is to not create the criminals in the first place. Instead, you
control a legal trade with legal means. Heck, you can even raise taxes on it,
instead of sinking money into hopeless “law enforcement”.

------
plainOldText
Portugal decriminalized the possession of all drugs for personal use in 2001,
and their situation has actually changed for the better.

[http://www.tdpf.org.uk/blog/drug-decriminalisation-
portugal-...](http://www.tdpf.org.uk/blog/drug-decriminalisation-portugal-
setting-record-straight)

~~~
personlurking
The only 'problem' now are the 'drug' dealers on so many corners of downtown
Lisbon who sell fake drugs to tourists. They come up in your face and try to
sell to you a few times per day and it's really annoying. Now, I spot them
from far away and already make the no signal with my index finger w/o looking
at them, but this doesn't always work. Once I was way in the back of a
restaurant but with a clear view of the front door/street. One such dealer
stopped at the entrance and pointed to his nose (to mimick snorting) until I
shook my head so he'd go away. Since they sell fake drugs (basically to
tourists but also they try with locals), the police can't do anything.

A minor problem, all in all, considering what has changed here regarding
decriminalization, but thought I'd share.

~~~
violentvinyl
A variation on this theme occurs in most major cities I've visited though,
whether it's fake designer sunglasses, candy, demo CDs, or bootleg DVDs. I
suspect this has less to do with decriminalization and more to do with earning
some quick cash.

~~~
personlurking
It's both what's being offered and the frequency of it. Regardless,
unemployment is high here so the quick cash argument is also valid.

------
plongeur
Few days ago I watched "The Culture High"
([http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1778338/](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1778338/))
which highlights the connections between:

\- Prison-industry

\- Militarization of Police

\- Pharmaceutical industry

\- _and_ Marijuana prohibition

I highly recommend this flick. It is exceptionally well made in artistic as
well as subject-specific regards.

Also watch-worthy are "How to Make Money Selling Drugs"
([http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1276962/](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1276962/))
which features a similar approach to the subject _and_ "Narco Cultura"
([http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2504022/](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2504022/))
if you are interested in how this drug-crap even detrimentally influences
what's left of Mexican culture.

~~~
pizza234
"The house I live in"[0] is the another highly recommended documentary for
people with interest in the subject.

[0]
[http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2125653/](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2125653/)
[http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_house_i_live_in/](http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_house_i_live_in/)

------
spiritplumber
People have been saying this for years, with the securistas basically avoiding
an answer. Now there's data. Will they still avoid having a conversation?

~~~
plikan13
Legalization may provide a net health benefit for Mexican gang members.
Whether legalization will provide a net health benefit for American citizens
is still a point of contention.

~~~
stickfigure
While the health effects of marijuana are debatable, the health effects of
prison are pretty clearly established.

~~~
plikan13
The war of drugs has been done badly. Of course it's ridiculous that people's
homes get raided because they have some pot. That doesn't mean legislation
needs to jump to the other end of the spectrum. You can forbid trade of
cannabis and at the same time NOT put users in jail.

~~~
meggar
Why forbid trade?

~~~
brazzy
To avoid having someone who has an incentive to work towards more widespread
use.

~~~
82xx
We currently prohibit trade, and yet there are still drug dealers...

~~~
brazzy
So?

------
stretchwithme
Of course.

If you want to empower the thugs and the terrorists and the human traffickers,
make as many things illegal as you can.

Like many, many things, this should be handled locally. People should be able
to the drugs they want as long a neighborhood or city wishes to profit from it
and deal with the costs. And others should be able to live without drug use in
their neighborhoods.

------
edward
UK political party, Cannabis is safer than alcohol (CISTA) is fielding
candidates in the UK general election next month.

[http://cista.org/](http://cista.org/)

Funded by one of the co-founders of Bebo, a social network.

------
hackercurious
There are many organizations working to end the failed policy of prohibition.
I believe one of the most effective is the Drug Policy Alliance. DPA is a
national advocacy leader of drug law reform that is grounded in science,
compassion, health and human rights. If anyone know of a more effective
organization please share it.
[http://www.drugpolicy.org/](http://www.drugpolicy.org/)

------
ghshephard
I wonder if the the Mexican Cartel's have a good Lobby here in the United
States that is pushing for the re-focus on the _criminalization_ of Marijuana.
How ironic would that be.

~~~
higherpurpose
Their lobby is probably the DEA (who would also prefer to _keep_ their jobs I
imagine):

[http://world.time.com/2014/01/14/dea-boosted-mexican-drug-
ca...](http://world.time.com/2014/01/14/dea-boosted-mexican-drug-cartel/)

~~~
rasz_pl
Dont forget ATF (Fast and Furious).

------
sshagent
This is the vid that i thinks carries the best all round anti-prohibition
argument
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8yYJ_oV6xk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8yYJ_oV6xk)

------
jroseattle
After reading the article, the title makes me question correlation/causation.

"A key problem is that cartels have diversified to a portfolio of other
crimes, from sex trafficking to stealing crude oil from Mexican pipelines.
They also make billions smuggling hard drugs. Seizures of both heroin and
crystal meth on the U.S.-Mexico border have gone up as those of marijuana have
sunk..."

EDIT: The title _sounds_ like it is impacting overall drug traffic, as opposed
to simply a shift in the type of traffic.

~~~
dtech
U.S. Legalization _of Marijuana_ Has Hit Mexican Cartels’ Cross-Border Trade (
_of Marijuana_ )

------
bayesianhorse
The question is, what will those gangs of violent, well armed men start doing
when smuggling isn't profitable any more?

~~~
sogen
The key problem is that cartels need money, and have moved on to what is more
profitable to them, and more violent: crimes affecting the general population:

Kidnapping people, Organ trafficking, etc ...

------
at-fates-hands
This makes sense if you think about it from the cartel's standpoint, but it
won't change much in the big picture. All the cartel's are doing is switching
products, producing more cocaine, more meth, heroin, and ecstasy. All of which
are vastly more popular and generate tons more revenue in the US than
marijuana anyways.

Most of the articles I've read, talk about how marijuana is effectively a
third or fourth tier product to them. Sure they bring a lot of it in, but it's
not a huge money maker like other drugs are. This isn't hardly going to put a
dent in their operations. When you have an organization generating BILLIONS of
dollars, a few million here or there isn't going to affect them very much.

~~~
aianus
How did you come to the conclusion that those drugs are more popular than
marijuana in the US? I've never met anyone who did coke, meth, heroin, or
ecstasy and didn't also smoke weed.

~~~
at-fates-hands
What I meant was the numbers for these drugs seems to be increasing while
those numbers for marijuana seem to be staying steady or increasing slightly.
There have always been high numbers of marijuana users, but in the last 5
years, usage for the other drugs is increasing, giving the cartels an easy way
to pivot to those drugs to recover their losses from legalization here. Sorry
if the wording was misleading.

 _" Across the U.S., heroin abuse among first-time users has increased by
nearly 60 percent in the last decade, from about 90,000 to 156,000 new users a
year, according to the U.S. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services
Administration (SAMHSA)."_

source: [http://www.forbes.com/sites/daviddisalvo/2014/01/14/why-
is-h...](http://www.forbes.com/sites/daviddisalvo/2014/01/14/why-is-heroin-
abuse-rising-while-other-drug-abuse-is-falling/)

 _" Emergency room visits related to MDMA -- known as Ecstasy in pill form and
Molly in the newer powder form -- increased 128 percent between 2005 and 2011
among people younger than 21. Visits rose from about roughly 4,500 to more
than 10,000 during that time, according to a report released Tuesday by the
U.S. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration."_

source: [http://www.webmd.com/parenting/news/20131203/ecstasy-use-
on-...](http://www.webmd.com/parenting/news/20131203/ecstasy-use-on-rise-
again-among-us-teens-report)

 _" A report by the National Drug Intelligence Center released last August,
“National Drug Threat Assessment 2011,” stated methamphetamine use was
increasing, especially among the young. The report attributed the rise to
Mexican drug cartels that control smuggling routes across the Southwestern
border, which can produce, transport and distribute the drug. "_

source: [http://www.drugfree.org/join-together/methamphetamine-use-
ap...](http://www.drugfree.org/join-together/methamphetamine-use-appears-to-
be-on-the-rise-reports-suggests/)

------
Lancey
I'm surprised that even a small amount of legalization is having such an
effect on the drug trade, and I've always cited this as a reason to legalize.
Seizures being down a third in mexico and a fifth in the U.S. should just be
hard evidence that the way to win the war on drugs is to kill the pipeline.

More sweeping measures, including federal decriminalization and the passage of
recreational use in the American Southwest, would probably sink the black
market altogether. Let's see if republicans get the message or if they'll
continue to cover their ears and eyes.

~~~
Igglyboo
A lot of the reason is due in part to having new suppliers, a lot of people in
non-legalized states are now getting weed from Colorado/Oregon as opposed to
Mexico. If you casually browse /r/darknetmarkets and/or /r/worldnews you'll
see that the USPS are starting to scrutinize outbound packages from weed legal
states for more heavily as of recent.

------
sarciszewski
Somewhat off topic: A lot of the people commenting in this thread seem like
they have experience with illegal drugs. Please be careful with what you
publish on the public Internet; you never know what the DEA is up to.

An HN post could lead them to your front door, and then parallel construction
could cover the trail.

~~~
kirsebaer
Please, stop with the paranoia. The majority of US middle-aged and young
adults have experience with illicit drugs. Illicit drug use is extremely
common in the US.

------
dataker
That really doesn't come as a surprise in the U.S : one must only observe what
happened at the Prohibition.

------
bontoJR
Legalization has been always proved to be effective as coutermove to illegal
traffic and, on the other hand, it's a great money source for the state
applying taxes. Now, the problem now is that regulations must be clear and the
price well balanced to avoid the black-market price war.

------
TeMPOraL
How surprising.

Actually, let's have Samaritan from Person of Interest explain how it works:
[http://imgur.com/a/yaLPk](http://imgur.com/a/yaLPk).

(This is _the best_ infographic I ever saw on the topic.)

------
staunch
I grew up around a lot of friendly country weed growers, but I cannot believe
how many of my old friends are in the business now. California Weed Rush.

------
torus
> Americans spend about $100 billion on illegal drugs every year

So that's $350 per capita on average. That's a lot higher that I expected.

~~~
tim333
Wikipedia:

>The Organization of American States estimated that the revenue for cocaine
sales in the U.S. was $34 billion in 2013. The Office of National Drug Control
Policy estimates that $100 billion worth of illegal drugs were sold in the
U.S. in 2013

34 sounds more realistic to me

~~~
DanBC
$34b refers to cocaine; $100b refers to everything.

It's not an unreasonable guess.

The numbers are hard to get right. Here's something about different
statistical methods that end up with very different numbers (about 650,000
people who used heroin in a year vs about 1.5 million people; about 60,000
people who use heroin nearly daily vs neary a million people who used heroin
nearly daily.)

> [http://www.forbes.com/sites/jacobsullum/2014/03/10/how-
> many-...](http://www.forbes.com/sites/jacobsullum/2014/03/10/how-many-daily-
> heroin-users-are-there-in-the-u-s-somewhere-between-60000-and-1-million-
> maybe/)

------
jalcazar
I heard that U.S. Legalization of Marijuana has had other side effects in
Mexico, like making harder to get good quality weed in Mexico

~~~
akilism
was there ever good quality weed in mexico?

------
jheriko
yes. its nice to see the common sense, with tons of historical data that
indicates it, being backed by some data we are collecting right now today.

well done to those bits of the US for being progressive and intelligent
instead of reactionary and ignorant. i'm glad its paying off. :)

------
akilism
Man there are a lot of half-baked ideas in this thread regarding drug
prohibition, the prison industry and crime rates.

