

Nuclear Fusion: the long road from dream to reality - t_fatus
http://www.paristechreview.com/2015/02/23/nuclear-fusion/

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Nihilartikel
I kind of wish that ITER and NIF would go away. In my opinion they are money
pits with little clear path to practical energy generation.

There are many credible, practical, small fusion research projects poised to
leapfrog the international megaprojects that are being grievously starved of
funding and mind-share by those big lumps. [http://www.industrytap.com/us-
fusion-funding-call-change/267...](http://www.industrytap.com/us-fusion-
funding-call-change/26786)

~~~
fluidcruft
Whatever happened to that shipping box thing the military was evaluating a few
years ago that was going to revolutionize everything?

~~~
Nihilartikel
Hmm, not sure. EMC2's Polywell (my favorite underdog) project had Navy funding
for quite some time, since it would fit handily onto a submarine. The only
other boxy generator that I recall was the Bloom box fuel cell.
[http://lawrencevilleplasmaphysics.com/](http://lawrencevilleplasmaphysics.com/)
will have a very reasonably sized final product too if their work pans out.
Same goes for Lockheed's compact fusion - they're one to watch since they have
big money ready and waiting if their experimentation yields progress.

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jseliger
This is also relevant and fascinating: "A Star in a Bottle – The International
Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor"
([http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/03/03/a-star-in-a-
bot...](http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/03/03/a-star-in-a-bottle)). The
HN discussion is good:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8307584](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8307584).

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vaadu
"the fossil reserves (oil, coal and natural gas) are being depleted, while the
cost to extract and exploit them is increasing"

Fossil fuel depletion aka peak oil is a fantasy that's been heard for decades.

The costs of extraction are not increasing. Why do you think the fracking
business took off - the costs to get to these previously untappable sources
dropped.

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abakker
If oil prices fall, fracking is too costly to be economical.

[http://static.cdn-
seekingalpha.com/uploads/2014/10/695520_14...](http://static.cdn-
seekingalpha.com/uploads/2014/10/695520_14132960335271_0.png)

~~~
protomyth
Although low oil price seem to be stopping new wells, it looks like the
existing can be profitable down to $40 (as told to me by the folks in western
ND). I posted a link a while back showing the breakdown.

~~~
Retric
The industry expects a large number of fracking companies to go bust if oil
stays under 60$. Traditional wells are generally profitable at 1/3 that price.
Worse, fracking has a lot of up-front cost in oil exploration and wells are
there not useful nearly as long so expect US production to fall quickly over
the next few years.

The good news is at ~100-150$ it’s profitable to directly manufacture oil, but
the price needs to stay there for years before companies will do the kind of
investments needed to meet current demand.

PS: Oddly enough, on average extracting oil and turning it into gasoline is
already a net negative in terms of energy due to all the extraction,
transportation, and refining costs.

~~~
protomyth
Can you point to your sourcing, I am doing a bit of comparison and I am seeing
a bit of oddity in the reporting.

~~~
Retric
Which bit?

[http://www.cnbc.com/id/102094881](http://www.cnbc.com/id/102094881) has some
numbers on regional break even prices.

[http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/08/energy-
bankruptcy-...](http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/08/energy-bankruptcy-
idUSL1N0UN2MA20150108) oil bankruptcy filings also
[http://www.cnbc.com/id/102318531](http://www.cnbc.com/id/102318531) "$68 a
barrel is not economical for a lot of these shale oil wells.
[http://www.cnbc.com/id/102222911](http://www.cnbc.com/id/102222911)

Manufacturing oil: _The new fuel is initially expected to cost around $3 to $6
per gallon, according to the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory ... “We 've
demonstrated the feasibility, we want to improve the process efficiency,"
explained Willauer. _ [http://www.ibtimes.com/goodbye-oil-us-navy-cracks-new-
renewa...](http://www.ibtimes.com/goodbye-oil-us-navy-cracks-new-renewable-
energy-technology-turn-seawater-fuel-allowing-1568455)

~~~
protomyth
The CNBC article jive with what I've seen $40 - $70 / $80 is the break even
price for shale in ND & Texas (although one section in ND is listed at $36
from other sources). I keep seeing quotes like the second one ($70 in most
cases) that quote the top of range. I'm still collecting a bit of research,
but it looks like the majority of wells are closer to the bottom than the top.

