

Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks - chaostheory
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/4229198/Shipping-rates-hit-zero-as-trade-sinks.html

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enra
I was already looking in to this couple of weeks ago. BDI was up till December
and it just hit the bottom in January.

BDI is a nice indicator of economy because 1) it's not speculative(you don't
buy shipping without products), 2) it's not elastic(it takes years to build
another ship and it's not easy or cheap to take ships of circulation).

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gravitycop
Good article on the BDI: [http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Baltic_Dry_Index_-
_BDI_(BALDR...](http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Baltic_Dry_Index_-
_BDI_\(BALDRY\))

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leonroy
these bits and pieces of financial news (eg. 'An MIT Blackjack team
perspective on the economy' on HN today) make it difficult to get the whole
picture of how serious an economic contraction we're going to see in the next
few years. It also is difficult (for myself at least) to understand what this
means for the average guy on the street. Are we talking Depression era
job/food lines? Something worse?

~~~
davidw
If anyone could actually predict that... the would keep it to themselves and
make a fortune. Of course, no one really can, so we get lots of hand waving,
theories and speculation, some of which are more reasoned and intelligent than
others. We also get lots of people trying to Prove a Point about their
particular political/economic views.

~~~
yummyfajitas
Forget predicting the future, there is plenty of data on the present. Here are
some nice graphs:

[http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/studies/re...](http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/studies/recession_perspective/index.cfm)

~~~
dogbait
Thanks for the v. useful link (and like your website :)

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tokenadult
"The World Bank caused shockwaves with a warning last month that global trade
may decline this year for the first time since the Second World War. This
appears increasingly certain with each new batch of data.

"Mr de Trenck predicts Asian trade to the US will fall 7pc this year. To
Europe he estimates a drop of 9pc -- possibly 12pc. Trade flows grow 8pc in an
average year."

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gravitycop
_Shipping journal Lloyd's List said brokers in Singapore are now waiving fees
for containers travelling from South China, charging only for the minimal
"bunker" costs. Container fees from North Asia have dropped $200, taking them
below operating cost.

Industry sources said they have never seen rates fall so low. "This is a whole
new ball game," said one trader._

Perhaps trade could be encouraged to healthy levels by subsidizing
importation.

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Prrometheus
I wonder how many of those who demonize trade realize that high volumes of
trade are associated with good economic times and low volumes of trade are
associated with the opposite.

