

Ask HN: For Bitcoin to be ubiquitous, what must happen? - markhall

As a believer in the utility and potential of bitcoin, I wanted to poll HN for additional opinions. 
In order for Bitcoin to be HUGE, ubiquitous and common among the world&#x27;s citizens, what specific things must happen? [List]
======
ljd
Liquidity is the most important thing.

The thing that holds back bitcoin is that I can't buy my groceries with it.
Once a currency can be used it is more valuable.

To overcome this, a company like Amazon would need to accept bitcoin or make
some kind of passthrough system, where merchants can accept Bitcoin and Amazon
takes their cut in bitcoins.

Once more companies accept it, it will be a prime candidate for the hold
currency because no government can artificially inflate it's value. Right now
the issue with having the USD, the Yuan or the Swiss Franc as the hold
currency is that the currency becomes more valuable which makes items in that
country more expensive for everyone outside of the country causing a decrease
in exports.

So no country really wants to be the hold currency, in fact it's why China is
manipulating their currency and artificially bolstering the USD by buying up
US Debt. It depresses the Yuan and keeps their export business alive.

It's why a strong dollar killed US Exports. The stronger your currency is, the
worse off it is for your exports.

Bitcoin doesn't have this issue, you can create a contract in bitcoin and not
have to worry if that country is going to inflate it because their exports are
decreasing. This gives the currency even greater liquidity.

------
Johnie
Price stability is one major factor.

Unstable currency is bad for both consumers and merchants. When the volatility
is high, it is high risk for people that hold that currency. Consumers and
merchants are not interested in hedging their currency risk and rather focus
on using the currency.

Let's say that the value of USD fluctuates 10% per day, most people would not
hold USD; they would rather hold a currency that is stable or move to gold.
Same thing is happening with BTC.

~~~
erikpukinskis
Bitcoin will only be unstable as long as there is disagreement about the
economics of it. Once we get reasonably close to consensus about that, price
will stabilize to where the consensus model says it should be.

I suspect that won't happen until some time after the current crop of incoming
economics PhDs are tenured.

------
edent
Usability. Primarily of payments.

For something like PayPal, I can send money to an email address. For M-Pesa
countries, I can send money to a phone number. If I'm in the UK, I can send
money to a sort code (12-34-56) and account number (98765432). For
international payments, I can send money to an IBAN (GB29 NWBK 6016 1331 9268
19)

For BitCoin? I have to send payment to "FHTbTN7omGUchDpmuHumii"

I can't read that out over the phone or easily copy type it - I certainly
can't remember it. There are no checksums, and no routing information.

So, for me, there's a high barrier to entry for doing something as simple as
paying someone back for a meal.

~~~
wcoenen
Bitcoin addresses do have a checksum[1]. And for most payments in person,
people will just scan a QR code[2].

[1]
[https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1026.0](https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1026.0)

[2]
[https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=de.schildbach....](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=de.schildbach.wallet)

------
freework
Bitcoin needs to be understood before it can be used by someone. People's
ability to understand bitcoin is the current bottleneck to bitcoin adoption.

~~~
stevewilhelm
I understand Bitcoin, I just don't see any personal benefit verses my existing
credit card, bank and investment accounts.

~~~
floorlamp
Credit cards companies charge around 3% per transaction, and charges are
susceptible to chargebacks. ACH transfers take around a week. Wire transfers
cost $40. Bitcoin transactions costs a few cents each and are done in less
than an hour.

~~~
PeterisP
Credit cards pay me back around 1% per transaction, and if someone cheats me,
I can chargeback. Isn't it far better than Bitcoin? :)

Btw, why isn't ACH/wire transfers a solution? If done properly (unlike USA),
they cost a few cents and can be transmitted in less than an hour (not 24/7
yet, though).

~~~
mahyarm
People in developed countries with good credit scores and are not banned by
chexsystems will get no value from bitcoin. For everyone else there's
bitcoin(tm).

Being glib aside, there is a vast population of poorer people who either live
in countries with unstable banking systems or are just not profitable for
banking. These people will get the most value out of bitcoin.

It's like landline telephones. For people with established land line systems,
the value of a cellphone isn't that much. For people who've never had a phone,
and wont get land line service, a cell phone is amazing!

ACH/Wire transfers are very slow for Americans, and too much inertia makes it
seem like they're not going away soon.

~~~
tomphoolery
> It's like landline telephones. For people with established land line
> systems, the value of a cellphone isn't that much.

I get what you're saying but...this just doesn't make sense. If this was true,
how do you explain the now ubiquitous usage of cell phones? Neither I nor any
of my (in their 20s) friends have a land line, because we all have cell
phones.

~~~
PeterisP
Places with really bad landline systems generally got much faster and more
widespread adoption & growth of cell phones and mobile services (such as
mobile banking, etc) than the advanced countries.

Now cellphones are everywhere, but pre-iphone era USA was rather backwards in
terms of mobile phone usage. Also, "majority of young people being mobile-
only" was an obvious thing in many much poorer places long before USA. None of
the people I know in their 30-ies have had a landline for more than 10 years
now - as far as I remember this was not the case in USA back in early 2000's.

------
codexon
It needs to be faster than 1-2 hours for every transaction because the store
is waiting for confirmations.

When every other normal store only takes a minute to process, 1-2 hours is way
too long.

~~~
celticninja
if you only require 1 confirmation, and for a coffee or lunch this should be
fine, which would take perhas 10 minutes at most.

~~~
ceejayoz
Waiting 10 minutes for your coffee payment to go through?

Pitch that to Starbucks and see how far you get.

~~~
celticninja
sorry i meant that for coffee you dont need to wait for a confirmation, a zero
confirmation transaction for $5 is safe enough, no one is going to bother to
double spend against that as the computational power required means it is not
economical to do so. Zero conf transactions are almost instantaneous

------
kbaker
I think a big driver of ubiquity would be a transaction processor / guarantor
similar to how Mastercard or Visa work on top of USD; then using BTC would be
as easy as using a credit card.

Why is this not an option right now?

\- Volatility of BTC exchange rate

\- Endpoint security

\- Trust in a big organization like this to securely handle BTC

\- Uncertain political future of BTC

\- Need to roll out merchant point-of-sale solutions globally

All these are being worked on though, and really there's nothing stopping
anyone from making this a reality Real Soon Now with a lot of investment.

The biggest risk might be a huge negative reaction from entrenched USD players
such as banks, financial corporations, Wall Street, and the Fed. With the
extent that they control the legislative branch, BTC might be excommunicated
and fizzle out.

------
gmuslera
Device security is a must, that looks like a showstopper, if at the very least
rotten apples in the NSA can take your bitcoins anonymously you are in
trouble, and most people don't have enough clue on how to be secure (i.e.
average windows users) to put "real" money there.

And of course, big adopters. For services and digital goods is a natural
method of payment. But it should have some price stability for that.

------
danielharan
Silk road was one example of a use case that could drive adoption. Liquidity,
usability and speed are important for mass adoption; for a niche, that's not
necessarily as big a concern.

Remittances and international transfers might be one niche where BTC could
shine. The currency isn't ready to beat VISA when you're buying a coffee, but
it could be a hell of a lot better than Western Union.

~~~
kbaker
But, remember that Visa doesn't transact immediately in cash-equivalent USD
either.

There's no reason why they couldn't settle accounts on the merchant and
consumer side using BTC instead, with equivalent convenience at the point of
sale.

------
Element_
A way needs to be found to scale the network to a size that can't be
interfered with by a nation state(s) before a nation state(s) interferes with
it. (e.g. if btc network gains serious traction yet is small enough a nation
state can interfere/control the network, a nation state will eventually
interfere/control the network)

~~~
PeterisP
For most of 'money' users 'scaling the network' would mean liquidity and
convertibility - it should be transparent, easy, safe and fast to interchange
bitcoin with all other currencies. This implicitly requires cooperation with
the nation states, not expecting no interference whatsoever.

For the billions people in the world who use money, "can't be interfered with"
is not even near the top of properties money must have. Above all, it should
be liquid (i.e., accepted in most places w/o hassle) and at least somewhat
stable in value. Heck, for most uses the old Zimbabwean dollar was a better
currency than Bitcoin - sure, it was under full state control and falling in
value like a lead weight, but millions of people could and did successfully
use it for their daily money needs.

------
tomasien
QQ: when you say you're a believer in the potential of Bitcoin, do you mean BC
itself, crypto-currency, or decentralized and fee-less ways to pay for things
and exchange funds? Is it the extra-governmental aspect of BC that you like or
what being extra-governmental has allowed it to be?

~~~
markhall
I mean that I believe in the fundamental need of BTC, the potential for
significant adoption and the reality that it can be simplified for all
consumers. I think BTC will win out versus other crypto-currencies because its
adoption thus far, which makes it hard for a secondary one to scale beyond
BTC. I own and wish I doubled down earlier...

~~~
tomasien
Ok but what part of it makes you believe in it, not just over other crypto,
but why it's needed in general?

------
johnymontana
Volatility must be reduced. BTC's price fluctuations reduce its usefulness as
a store of value. I'm curious if the Winklevis attempt to list a bitcoin ETF
is a play for this: an exchange traded BTC security could make it easier to
hedge currency risk.

------
mkramlich
I think there are 2 major categories of risk: one political/legal, the latter
technical/security. I have no realistic way of helping with the former. I've
started trying to help with the latter. We'll see.

~~~
markhall
Would you be interested in sharing how you are helping with the latter
(technical/security)?

~~~
mkramlich
Gladly, in private conversations. Esp with people that could be key
stakeholders or contributors. :-) Otherwise not ready enough to go very
public.

Emphasis on building and validating and iterating rather than too much talking
or guessing. Though a little of the latter is good and necessary sometimes I
think.

------
maaku
It needs to have secure-by-default consumer applications which are trivial to
use.

------
27182818284
Well, I'm ready to declare that cryptocurrencies are here to stay, even if BTC
itself loses. In that sense it is already pretty huge to me.

For some other definition of HUGE, the first thing that comes to mind would be
any top 20 GDP government accepting it as a way to pay taxes. Switzerland is
#20, so if they started accepting it, that'd be a HUGE deal, and doesn't seem
nearly as unrealistic as, say, Mexico accepting it.

~~~
markhall
Do you think another cryptocurrency can come in and surpass BTC at this point?
If so, how can the concept of cyrptocurrency be big if alternative options of
the same core concept exist (relative to consumer adoption)?

~~~
27182818284
Yes, because it is such an unproven area there is a lot of room for changes.
For example something Litecoin is working on is verifying Litecoin nodes with
as little as 200-300MB of disk storage. Now _that 's just an example_, but I
could see stuff like that making a currency in the future based on BTC more
popular than BTC itself is all. The arena is too new I think for me or anyone
else to say BTC is going to _be it_.

------
mkramlich
In the long run, it must become something "your mom" and "your grandfather"
use. Notice the use of quotes, speaking in metaphors/stereotypes by intent.
Essentially it needs to become understandable enough, and perceived as safe
enough, for the least sophisticated and/or most conservative or more
financially fragile.

~~~
erikpukinskis
I don't think this is true. There's no reason why it couldn't be
infrastructural like high tension power lines or crude oil. I have no idea how
to use either of those things, but they underpin almost everything I do.

Maybe you never use bitcoin but your landlord uses it to pay the mortgage, and
your cousin uses it to send money to your grandmother in Iran for you. Even if
it's only used by "pros" it can be huge.

------
phyalow
FED/Fiat collapse. Which maybe sooner rather than later given their inability
to ween QE and ZIRP.

~~~
krapp
I think it would be a fundamental flaw in the philosophy of Bitcoin to require
a global economic collapse for it to become relevant.

If anything, I think that for Bitcoin to become ubiquitous, it need to work
and be seen to work within the very system it seems designed to undermine.

------
ekm2
It needs to have a more intuitive user interface.

~~~
markhall
That will be inevitable with the growing attention and efforts of startups,
developers and tech ecosystem, don't you think?

------
stevewilhelm
It would need to be better than a credit card for the average consumer.

~~~
markhall
Do you think it can be? Wallets on mobile devices an POS technology can make
this happen

------
genericacct
hell must freeze over... twice

~~~
markhall
As a non-believer, what are your thoughts on its progress thus far?

~~~
genericacct
I believe it's a pretty fine technological achievement and i would totally be
buying into it if it was pegged to major currencies. As it is i can only see
it as a globalized casino.

As others have mentioned upthread, it's just not user friendly enough for
widespread adoptance. I code ASM at times and i find it difficult -- cant see
any 60 yrs old getting into it. And guess what? 60 yrs olds have the most
money..

Also some things about it sound so fishy i cannot think i'd ever put any money
into it. Like say, for example... what if quantum computers can find all
hashing collisions in a split second? That's what they were designed for more
or less.

And really, what kind of message does it send when you realize that the
creator(s) are unknown and anonymous? Great for a cypherpunk thriller, not so
great for a supposed store of value.

------
orasis
Trust.

~~~
markhall
Current price at ~$500 means that a growing trust is evident. I believe that
lack of awareness is a bigger hurdle than trust right now

~~~
drazvan
Current price at $600 means people are speculating like crazy - it's not a
measure of trust by any means, people are in it to make a quick (and easy)
buck.

