
Operation Popeye - segfaultbuserr
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Popeye
======
owenmarshall
Interesting list of goals, how it was implemented, how it is now illegal...

 _But_ nowhere on the page does anyone say "it worked!" or "it was a
boondoggle!", let alone share a statistical analysis that says "rain changed
by X sigma over normal". That's a bit disappointing.

~~~
mikestew
Agreed, I'm surprised "did it work?" does not seem to be addressed.

According to:

[https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/popeye.htm](https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/popeye.htm)

"In the end, however, it proved impossible to determine the amount of
additional rainfall caused by cloud-seeding rather than other factors, and
thus justify the recurring outlay. The Defense Intelligence Agency estimated
that seeding increased rainfall "in limited areas up to 30 percent above that
predicted for the existing conditions," but this figure admittedly was the
result of "empirical and theoretical techniques based on units expended and
the physical properties of the air mass seeded"-in short, a scientific guess.
Sensor data showed only that the enemy consistently experienced difficulty
keeping traffic moving through the monsoon rains, a normal problem for that
time of year."

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saagarjha
> The former U.S. Secretary of Defense, Robert S. McNamara, was aware that
> there might be objections raised by the international scientific community
> but said in a memo to the president that such objections had not in the past
> been a basis for prevention of military activities considered to be in the
> interests of U.S. national security.

A somewhat unfortunate use of precedent…

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mark-r
It bothers me that one of the cloud seeding compounds they used was lead
based. I wonder how much permanent pollution was left behind.

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tpmx
Regarding the effectiveness:

[https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/making-it-
rain/](https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/making-it-rain/)

> Operation Popeye had four main objectives: to turn the roads to mud, to
> cause landslides along roadways, to wash out river crossings, and to keep
> roads muddier for longer than usual. But cloud seeding at the utime, and
> even today, is far from an exact science. At best , the military could
> measure three things: what the average rainfall for that area was, what the
> estimated rainfall would have been, and what actually fell after a seeding
> mission. But, in the end, they couldn’t collect enough data to rigorously
> analyze the outcomes. “The rain is completely variable,” says Fleming. “You
> have a tremendous temporal variability, spatial variability, and that means
> that statistics are not robust about what your particular intervention did
> to that particular rainfall.”

> And even if the U.S. military could make it rain, they couldn’t precisely
> control where the rain landed. One official described accidentally dumping a
> ton of rain on an American Special Forces camp.

> Nevertheless, Operation Popeye was deemed effective enough to continue for
> five years, from 1967 to 1972.

~~~
morninglight
> Operation Popeye was deemed effective enough to > continue for five years,
> from 1967 to 1972."

If this farce had been successful in any way, politicians and their corporate
benefactors would have milked it for every dime possible. Remember, this is
America and the "success" of a war is only defined by which side of the cash
register you stand.

If that is too difficult to comprehend, then consider:

The Vietnam War was deemed effective enough to continue for twenty years, from
1955 to 1975.

The Iraq War was deemed effective enough to continue from 2003 to present.

The War in Afghanistan was deemed effective enough to continue from
2001–present.

~~~
jshevek
> _If that is too difficult to comprehend, then consider:_

> _Be kind. Don 't be snarky._

[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html)

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hirundo
So often conspiracy theories are incorrect not because nobody conspired but
because they tried and failed. Nudging complex systems in the preferred
direction is _hard_.

~~~
seiferteric
Even if it was effective, they wouldn't tell you anyways. The CIA is known for
this, they will claim it didn't work as cover.

~~~
duxup
The CIA telling you or not isn't really a factor if we know about it from a
leak, they're not deciding.

But more realistically if their cloud seeding was like so many other
attempts...they don't know if it works or not.

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cpr
[https://www.globalresearch.ca/haarp-secret-weapon-used-
for-w...](https://www.globalresearch.ca/haarp-secret-weapon-used-for-weather-
modification-electromagnetic-warfare/20407)

