
Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall - abshaw
http://bostinnovation.com/2011/07/28/harvard-study-the-electric-car-in-the-us-market/
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jdietrich
Here in the UK, gas (petrol) is well over $8 per US gallon (£1.30 per litre)
and has been for some time. It hasn't been less than 79p a litre for nearly a
decade. Most hybrid and electric cars are bought for use in London, where they
are exempt from the $16 per day charge to drive into the city centre. I live
in a large (>2 million population) city in the north of England and have
_never_ seen an electric car here.

~~~
dlokshin
The article is basing itself on market pressure while the UK is an example of
regulatory pressure.

~~~
dpark
You don't think that $8 gas and $16 congestion charges created market
pressure? If $8 gas in the UK doesn't make everyone switch to electric, how
will $5 in the US do the trick?

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iqster
I don't understand why electricity must be generated at charging stations.

"Electric charing stations must have charging equipment, generate their own
electricity and have the capacity to distribute a lot of electricity."

IMHO, the lack of a reasonable solution to the gas-station (err ... fill
station?) problem is the key problem here. I was at the NYC auto show and saw
the charging solutions for the Volt. They all sucked. As I recall, the fastest
charging solution they had required custom electrical wiring and could charge
the car in around 20-30 mins.

I've also encountered the idea of swapping batteries at the fill station. This
idea has a lot of problems too but probably gives the best end user
experience.

~~~
ph0rque
_I've also encountered the idea of swapping batteries at the fill station.
This idea has a lot of problems too but probably gives the best end user
experience._

You're probably thinking of a startup called <http://www.betterplace.com> . I
wonder what their analysis on gas prices would be to come to the continental
US (their strategy right now is to go for densely populated areas).

~~~
MaysonL
They just opened their first battery switching station in Denmark, of 20 they
plan to open there in the next year.

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postit
In Sao Paulo[BR] gas price hit US$5.5/gall __a couple of years ago, and I just
spotted 5 electric cars in my life, I know we're are so called emergent but
Sao Paulo is more similar to some american metropoles than anything in europe
or even US.

Our "cheap" alternatine, sugar cane Ethanol it's costing US$4.39/gall. I just
filled my VW with gas today and it cost me US$7.20/gall.

Mankind will adopt alternatives as soon we drain global reserves.

 __I did all conversions because we buy gas in litters

~~~
writetoalok
_litres_ , buy gas in litres ...

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mc32
Anecdotally CalTRain ridership picks up at around $4.25/gal. more or less. So,
it's possible they are on to something. Next car I get, I would like to get a
hybrid --to insure [hedge] against future gas price increases, rather than a
way to save now.

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Eliezer
The alternative to pure electric isn't pure gas, it's hybrid electric
vehicles. You can't beat the worst alternative to win, you've got to beat the
best alternative. That alone makes me not trust the rest of the study.

~~~
hugh3
Indeed. It also overlooks the fact that the price of fuel is only the second
most important factor in determining electric car adoption, with the most
important being electric car technology.

Electric cars are getting better rapidly, and I'll probably get one eventually
(preferably with a fuel-burning backup motor like a Chevy Volt) but I'm
waiting for the technology to get better and cheaper, not for the price of
fuel to reach some magic number.

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grannyg00se
A culture shift away from daily transportation of individuals would be much
more significant than going electric. I'm all for a reasonable all electric
alternative (I'm thinking motorcycle) but the reality is that until we stop
having so many people traveling back and forth every day we aren't going to
get away from the energy demand that such transportation requires.

~~~
rysulliv
I completely agree. I think what we really need is some rethinking and
innovating ideas on public transportation. I know that is a vague concept to a
lot of American's that live in cities other than NYC and maybe Chicago and a
few others, but it is a solution that works in other areas of the world. We
have some obstacles to get it to work here for sure, but good old American
ingenuity can surely solve those can't they?

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americandesi333
This prediction only holds true if the market has enough viable options of
electric cars. As for now, Tesla and Nissan are the only two all electric
cars.

I just purchased a diesel car and diesel fuel IS at around $4.40 per gallon...
I would have gladly purchased a electric car.

Tesla's price point is too high and their lower priced model is still a little
ways away from release. Nissan Leaf can run only for 100 miles before it needs
to be charged. This makes it a difficult substitute for a regular gasoline car
because it will not be able to satisfy most Americans driving needs.

Therefore, for this prediction to hold true, its important to have enough
viable options in market.

~~~
roc
> _"100 miles ... will not be able to satisfy most Americans driving needs."_

Most Americans commute 30 miles per day. 100 miles per day covers something
like three quarters of all drivers. Range anxiety is a largely psychological
concern; it has little to do with actual needs.

~~~
khafra
Renting a car sucks. I would not want to do that once every month, which is
about how often I drive over 100 miles.

Services like Zipcar will be strongly complementary goods to electric cars.

~~~
tansey
_> Renting a car sucks._

Now that I don't quite understand. I find renting a car to be a lot of fun.
The salespeople are always super friendly, they get you in and out quick, the
price is relatively low (~$70/day after taxes), and you usually get to drive a
brand new model.

Maybe doing it once per month would be a headache for some. Personally, I like
it and if it saved me money to drive an electric car, I would happily take
this deal.

~~~
khafra
It's fun, if you're on a trip and have a lot of time. But as a semi-regular
thing:

\- I have to drive to the car rental place unless I live close enough for a
pickup, in which case I have to wait around to be picked up.

\- I have to arrange my trip so that I both depart and return during the
rental place's hours. If I come back late, I have to pay a penalty and either
take time off from work the next morning or drive the rented car a whole extra
day.

\- Unless I rent from a 24-hour airport location, which is usually twice as
expensive and does not do pick-ups, so I also have to pay to park my electric
car at the airport.

etc. Essentially, it's just not good for routine use.

~~~
rdl
If you are a member of the frequent renter programs (e.g. Hertz gold club) it
is a lot easier, too -- no need to fill in paperwork or even talk to a human
each time, since your car should be waiting for you in a stall. Still not
quite zip car.

The thing I hate about zip car I'd that the cars aren't maintained between
users, so they are often dirty.

The thing I hate about both is that I like having a comprehensive trauma kit,
tool kit, zombie/civil insurrection, wifi and inverter, nav system, etc. in my
car, so it is not really convenient to transfer all of that between vehicles.

My solution will be company shared f-350 diesel and leased electric, shared at
the office for work/personal use.

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crikli
There is precedent, sorta, in aviation: 100LL hit $4.50 a couple years back
and is now between $5-$8.

Cessna started developing an electric 172 in 2010:
[http://green.autoblog.com/2010/08/11/cessna-developing-
elect...](http://green.autoblog.com/2010/08/11/cessna-developing-electric-
powered-172-skyhawk/)

I say "sorta" because it's not an industry-wide movement.

~~~
kragen
I think the energy economics are different for planes and cars, though.
There's no equivalent of regenerative braking, or for that matter stop-and-go
traffic, for planes.

And adding weight to a car doesn't make it use more energy at high speeds,
which is how an old van can get 15 miles per gallon while a fully loaded semi
truck gets 10 miles per gallon. Adding weight to a plane _does_ make it use
more energy. The effect of adding weight is relevant because batteries weigh
almost 500 times as much per joule as fuel does.

~~~
beej71
> There's no equivalent of regenerative braking

Point the nose down with the power off?

~~~
ratsbane
Nose up to slow down: altitude = stored energy

~~~
kragen
Right, but you don't need an electric airplane to do that. With cars, electric
is much more efficient for stop-and-go driving because regenerative braking
becomes possible.

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ralfd
Oh really? The current gasoline price in Germany is around 1.588 Euro per
liter which is 6.01 Euro per gallon (stupid imperial unit) or glorious 8,57
Dollar.

Still no electric cars.

~~~
Legion
Different culture. Different daily life transportation realities.

~~~
roel_v
This is claimed very often. I did some very basic research here:
<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2766844> (in a related discussion). In
short, I don't see a substantial reason to believe that Americans drive all
that more than Europeans do, and certainly not enough to say that the US
switch to electric would happen significantly below the current gas price in
Europe.

(there may be other factors - Americans' general tendency to go to
technological solutions earlier than others, other interests that will drive
development/adoption of non-petrol powered cars, ...)

~~~
Jabbles
This supports your view: <http://www.bsfrey.ch/articles/456_07.pdf>

Suggests that the the average US commute time is comparable to Germany's (48
vs 42 minutes). Germany's time has an SD of 19 minutes.

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mindcruzer
Cool. Where does the electricity come from?

~~~
onemoreact
Worst case Coal which costs far less than Oil. The really good news is the US
has a lot of Coal and Coal has a drasticly lower carbon footprint because of
reduced extration, refining, and transportation costs per BTU.

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newmediaclay
I don't think it makes sense to term this prediction in price of gas. Even as
they say in the study, one of the most weighted factors in a purchasing
decision is the number of charging stations available. It's the cart and the
horse, even if gas is $5/gallon, consumers won't be super motivated to buy
cars b/c of a lack of charging stations, and charging stations won't be built
due to a lack of existing demand.

These things need to happen together to make the change, not just the gas
price hike. Like others have alluded to, there needs to be more of a cultural
shift or incentives from the government.

I think it makes sense to do this study with more focus on number of charging
stations or public/private investment in the space rather than gas price.

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fab13n
There are many places where prices are higher than that, I would have liked
them to explain why those places don't have electric cars.

As a concrete example, nowadays a liter of gaz is at about EUR1.50 in France.
That's 1.50 EUR/L * 3.8 L/gal * 1.43 USD/EUR = 8.2 USD/gal.

Of course people drive less here: cities are less car-friendly, public
transportation is more developed, and when choosing a house, people take
transportation to work/shops/leisure into account. But there is virtually no
electric car, despite significant tax breaks and nuclear electricity at 0.10
EUR/KWh.

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cschmidt
I paid $4.53/gallon for diesel in Boston yesterday, so I guess we're all good
to go on the electrics. (I bought a diesel instead, which does get great
mileage.)

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VladRussian
to me the situation reminds the 1976 when somebody needed to build and start
selling usable personal computer, ie. Apple. We have all the components in
place, yet attempts to convert regular car into electric (amateurs as well as
Tesla/Nissan, etc...) clearly show limitations of that approach. The 500kg
30KW $10K block of batteries is the centerpiece (or spread along the floor)
around which the car needs to be (re)designed the way it is designed now
around gas engine and transmission. Designing for the pure electric one would
get the main things taken care about - weight and shape resulting in 200+
miles range car.

Saw here, on 101, a guy driving at ~60mph a bare metal 4 wheel electric drive
platform (with a couple of kind of roll-over bars) and it strangely evoked
associations with Wozniak's Apple I.

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jcslzr
Has any of you seen "Collapse"?

Its a Documentary, and in it this guy states that there is no realistic
substitution for oil, and once we run out of it society will collapse.

Pretty scary.

~~~
felipemnoa
If we run out of it all of a sudden yes. We are starting to feel the pain at
least here in America and already we are starting to adapt. So no, our society
won't collapse. We will find a way, we always do.

~~~
jcslzr
I hope we do, but it seems to me that a lot of components of an electric car
will depend directly or indirectly to oil, that it will be like saying that if
we run out of water, we can always drink coke.

