
Are You Successful? If So, You've Already Won the Lottery - isaacdl
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/22/upshot/are-you-successful-if-so-youve-already-won-the-lottery.html
======
matt_wulfeck
> Chance events play a much larger role in life than many people once
> imagined.

Wrong wrong wrong. If your parents are wealthy you're successful because of
them. If you're white you're successful because of your race. If you're male,
tall... Don't forget if you're good looking and outgoing! /s

At some point we'll exhaust all excuses for success in life other than grit,
dedication, and plain old hard work. Chance is just another one down the line.

~~~
aaroninsf
Do the math.

Vast numbers of people demonstrate grit, dedication, and work hard at the
expense of enjoying the rest of life.

Very very few of them succeed on the terms they are being told and sold they
deserve.

One of the biggest problems with the current extreme accumulation of wealth in
a very thin crust of super wealth is that the number of people who enjoy the
trappings of modest/qualified success is rapidly diminishing. I remember the
dream that was _the middle class_.

Sure, you wouldn't know it to drive around the Bay Area, but the Bay Area is
in another bubble fueled more by precisely the kind of unearned largess you
mock.

The rest of the US, minus the other urban darlings of international wealth
looking for a place to park or chasing some, any, return when interest rates
are globally low, is turning into a place no amount of grit or hardwork will
avail to rescue you from something not too far from permanent subsistence-
level existence.

~~~
IIlllIllIIIIlII
Who is telling them the terms? Who is telling them they "deserve" something
for working hard? Specifically?

Because it doesn't take very much thought to realize "hard work" is not the
key to success, it's hard work in an area that is demanded by employers. Spend
your 10,000 hours learning underwater basket weaving? Good for you, but good
luck getting paid to do it. Spend your 10,000 hours learning a career in
demand? Now we're talking.

If "no amount of grit or hardwork" is going to prevent subsistence-level
existence, what about all the people who get college degrees in areas with
high demand -- electrical engineers, software developers, accountants,
chemical engineers -- and get good, quality-paying jobs?

What about the people who start companies making a technology that other
companies are willing to pay for?

~~~
toomuchtodo
> Spend your 10,000 hours learning a career in demand? Now we're talking.

[http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/25/opinion/too-many-law-
stude...](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/25/opinion/too-many-law-students-too-
few-legal-jobs.html)

[http://www.wired.com/2015/10/robot-radiologists-are-going-
to...](http://www.wired.com/2015/10/robot-radiologists-are-going-to-start-
analyzing-x-rays/)

[https://www.washingtonpost.com/g00//business/economy/new-
mac...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/g00//business/economy/new-machine-
could-one-day-replace-
anesthesiologists/2015/05/11/92e8a42c-f424-11e4-b2f3-af5479e6bbdd_story.html)

[http://www.businessinsider.com/ibms-watson-may-soon-be-
the-b...](http://www.businessinsider.com/ibms-watson-may-soon-be-the-best-
doctor-in-the-world-2014-4)

------
rayiner
> But talent and effort are not enough. Luck also matters.

It's interesting that the author distinguishes between talent and luck. Talent
is to a great extent a matter of luck. Your draw in the genetic lottery may
well preclude you from being a successful physicist, basketball player, or
musician.

~~~
dikdik
You have a point, but I think it is a useful distinction when it comes to
work. Talent and skill (while affected by things out of an individual's
control) set the baseline of what you are able to accomplish/your potential.
Luck plays a bigger role in whether or not you get the opportunity to use
and/or grow those skills/talents.

Think about manufacturing a 2.6GHz processor. Many of them come out of the
line unable to reach 2.6GHz, some come out to 2.6, and some can even achieve
greater speeds. That is your talent/skill (which is predisposed on your luck
during the manufacturing process). The processor has no control where it ends
up (though the QC process will have some effect), it could end up in a
scientific computing cluster where it continually works on complicated
problems. Or it could end up in a soccer mom's PC where it is used for email
and light web browsing.

This is an imperfect analogy as a processor is not a biological medium so they
degrade, whereas a biological medium would more likely improve/strengthen when
stressed. So while there is luck in creating talent/skill/potential, there is
still a need for distinction between luck and the talent you are born with.

------
known
[http://www.monbiot.com/2011/11/07/the-self-attribution-
falla...](http://www.monbiot.com/2011/11/07/the-self-attribution-fallacy)

