
Welcoming Our New Robotic Overlords - stefie10
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/10/23/welcoming-our-new-robot-overlords
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boundring
The article is focused on robotic automation of menial tasks, primarily in
industrial settings (factories, warehouses), not automation of judgements
which could be subject to bias...

Thriftwy raises an interesting point, speculatively, but there's little bias
to be found in supply logistics or assembly of parts.

Marginally touched upon in the article was the displacement of lower-class
workers. Is expansion of automation going to lead humanity toward
dispossession of low-income workers, or will universal welfare become the
result of outmoded jobs?

I don't think Asimov's "Aurorans,"\--elite-yet-few humans supported by legions
of robotic servants--is possible, but it's a thing.

~~~
stefie10
I started working in robotics because I wanted to empower people and make the
world a better place. But what I have started to appreciate is that increasing
automation is by default a transfer of wealth from labor to capital owners.
The two million long-haul truck drivers who are going to be replaced by self-
driving trucks are going to lose income; the owners of the self-driving trucks
are going to capture that wealth. I am not sure what the right social policies
are to address this; retraining, basic income, and universal healthcare all
seem reasonable. But I think a lot of people don't appreciate how automation
leads to both increased productivity and also increased inequality.

~~~
indigochill
Although I agree automation necessarily moves wealth from labor to capital
sources, I think an underappreciated concept by those concerned about
automation is how increased productivity at least historically has benefited
the overall economy. The industrial revolution went a long way towards
advancing economic inequality, but had it not happened we collectively
wouldn't enjoy anywhere near the quality of life we now do (and that goes for
pretty much anyone who's worn a t-shirt).

But yes, it would be best if we could find ways to help laborers adapt to new
automation and advance technology in a socially responsible way. Not that I
have any great ideas for how that would work.

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ryandrake
Problem is: Tell that to the people losing their jobs. "Sorry you have to
choose between medication and rent now. But hey, the _overall economy_ is
doing great so you should feel happy!" This idea that a rising overall economy
benefits everyone is a lie told by the smaller number of people who it
actually benefits.

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thriftwy
I think that soon it will be considered a bad practice to possess a skill or
to use some knowledge for decisions..

If you have learned to do something, you will proceed by teaching a machine
learning system that. And then you will use that, and not your internal
knowledge.

The reason will be cited as follows: If you know something, this introduces
bus factor. People can't get in your head to validate if you're applying your
knowledge fairly, or biased, or maliciously misappropriating things. Your
reasoning is unverifiable. You can leave for greener pastures, carrying your
skills and knowledge with you.

While machine learning system is repeatable, you can have all kinds of checks
and KPIs. And it's protected by IP laws.

Human domain knowledge will be discouraged.

~~~
s_kilk
This would effectively freeze all development and leave us collectively stuck
at the current level of expertise.

If every doctor trains an ML algo, then forgets how to be a doctor, then
medicine stops dead at that level.

~~~
mholmes680
i dunno... i just read about alphago zero. Only needed to teach it the rules
of the game, and it thrashed the current level of cumulative human expertise
(alpha go) 100-0 matches, which had just thrashed a single human the year
before.

This seems like its happening at some hedge funds as well for stock picking.

I guess the closed system of the game rules is more manageable than all of
medicine, but... I can't agree with "stuck as the current level of expertise".

~~~
knicholes
I wasn't able to determine from what I read yesterday if AlphaGo Zero played
vs AlphaGo or vs itself (AlphaGo Zero). This probably isn't the place to ask,
but if it is, do you know?

~~~
nschucher
It was trained with self-play and evaluated on AlphaGo Lee (the version that
beat Lee Sedol) and AlphaGo Master (the version that beat Ke Jie and I believe
a number of online matches against top-ranked professional players).

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lubesGordi
Every single technological advancement relieves someone of work. This allows
people to put their money towards things that they would rather put money
towards, creating more jobs there. This makes the world a better place.

~~~
stefie10
I agree, but technical advancements can also lead to a transfer of wealth from
worker to capital owner. For example, there are roughly two million long-haul
truck drivers in the US today. When we have self-driving trucks, they will
lose their jobs. It's not a very fun job, and self-driving trucks will be
better and safer. But it will also transfer wealth from the worker to the
capital owner.

It may also create other jobs etc., but clearly the wealth transfer is one
part of the effect. I think that as a result it is important to pursue social
policies to mitigate the disruption experienced by displaced workers, and to
spread the benefit of the technology to a larger fraction of society.

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TYPE_FASTER
Jobs have been made obsolete many times over. There are fewer blacksmiths than
there used to be when a horse was a primary method of transportation.
Manufacturing jobs declined during globalization/offshoring during the
eighties. Did knowledge work take the place of those manufacturing jobs? Would
the employment numbers look different if VisiCalc hadn't come along?

The questions are: what do the population numbers look like that are impacted
by these changes in job-type demand? How many blacksmiths were many obsolete
by the car? How many manufacturing jobs were removed from the pool by moving
to offshore manufacturing? How many manufacturing/warehouse/etc. jobs will be
replaced by automation?

The last question is probably the hardest to answer, because we don't know
yet. It depends on the evolution of the sensors (solid state LIDAR), other
hardware, and automation methods.

