
Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk - rgbrenner
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/11/09/trumps-sweep-could-be-a-big-setback-to-tesla-and-elon-musk/
======
tlack
He doesn't seem totally opposed to renewable energy sources:

"It should be the goal of the American people and their government to achieve
energy independence as soon as possible. Energy independence means exploring
and developing every possible energy source including wind, solar, nuclear and
bio-fuels. A thriving market system will allow consumers to determine the best
sources of energy for future consumption."

From [https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-president-
ele...](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-president-elect-trump-
views-science/)

~~~
lingben
if you have been paying attention to what he says, then you would have heard
that he is incredibly against renewable energy sources, especially wind (he
has a major grudge against wind farms ever since his battle with them in
Scotland)

[http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-loses-battle-to-stop-
wind-...](http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-loses-battle-to-stop-wind-farm-
near-his-scottish-golf-resort-1450275439)

[https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/22/trump-
re...](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/22/trump-resumes-
fight-against-windfarm-near-his-golf-course)

it is notoriously difficult to pin down what Trump stands for because it
really depends on the day and time and situation since he only truly cares
about himself and only thinks about what will benefit him. but his
pronouncements against renewables and his penchant for "clean" coal, opening
up drilling on public lands, fracking, etc. is crystal clear

~~~
hoorayimhelping
> _it is notoriously difficult to pin down what Trump stands for..._

> _he only truly cares about himself and only thinks about what will benefit
> him... and his penchant for "clean" coal is crystal clear_

Which is it? It's hard to pin down what he stands for, or is it crystal clear?

~~~
cma
You should put the "..." in brackets or even replace it with the original
text, because you edited out the word "but".

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rgbrenner
It talks about Tesla, but I'm not really sure how much oil prices can really
decline. I would be more worried about SolarCity and solar in general. Trump
says he wants to expand coal, nat gas, etc.. and cheaper prices for those (and
perhaps discontinuation of credits for renewable energy) would discourage new
solar installations.

What would be really sad is if this policy change causes bankruptcies in
renewable energy companies... it would take a while to rebuild that, even if
the policies are restored later on.

~~~
hx87
Natural gas would have to be really cheap in order to beat spot prices for
solar on sunny days, especially in the southwest. It's still good for peaker
plants though. Coal, on the other hand, I don't see being profitable unless
Congress starts taxing solar directly, since it still can't beat solar spot
prices and it's categorically unprofitable to run coal plants as peakers.

~~~
JoeAltmaier
If we harvest Methane Hydrate deposits undersea and pipe them into coastal
cities, then natural gas could become essentially free. That would be hard to
beat.

~~~
hx87
The capital costs though...and if you ignore capital costs, sunshine is free.

~~~
JoeAltmaier
They're huge and convenient. Capital costs paid once; gas flows for centuries.
It'll amortize to almost nothing.

------
loourr
This is based on completely the wrong premise, Tesla is an unsubsidized car
company. Even if the Solar City deal goes through and the value goes to $0
within a year Tesla will still be a great thriving company.

Not only is Tesla a shinning example of American manufacturing (a main Trump
tenant), they create cars that are better and more performant then competing
gasoline cars, they do it at much higher margins.

Tesla is hopping to produce about 500k cars within 2 years while the average
automobile manufacture produces about 10MM cars per year. And they plan to do
it at a 20-30% margin.

Even if gas prices go down by 75% they would then only match the price of
fueling a Tesla, which in itself would be an incredible feat given how
subsidized oil already is.

~~~
dcosson
> Not only is Tesla a shinning example of American manufacturing (a main Trump
> tenant)

Except that they use a ton of automation. I'm very curious how this will play
out under Trump. Because even if he does all the things he's been talking
about (pulling out of trade deals and raising tariffs) and even if it has the
intended short-term effect of bringing more manufacturing back to America,
there will be a lot of automation and it probably won't look very much like it
did in the pre-globalization good-old days that his base wants to revert to.

What then? They'll need somewhere other than trade deals to point the blame.

~~~
loourr
That's a good point though they still employ a lot of people.

It'll be interesting when people start trying to deal with the job loss from
automation. I'm not sure how you can practically restrict the use of software
and robots.

------
toomuchtodo
Counterpoint:
[https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-11-09/trump-c...](https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-11-09/trump-
cannot-halt-the-march-of-clean-energy)

------
vvanders
I think Tesla will do okay, they've got a solid product that stands on its
own.

What I'm worried about is rooftop solar tiles. One of the thing that can make
it cheaper than a traditional roof is that the whole thing will qualify for
solar subsidies. If that goes away it could make things incredibly difficult
for Solar City.

~~~
terravion
I guess it depends on whether you think that net metering is a subsidy and
whose eyes are beholding the payments. Those tiles are generating electricity,
why shouldn't they get paid same as large generators?

~~~
icebraining
My understanding is that the extra complexity of the network to support a
multitude of small generation points precludes most of the gains from the
extra energy supply.

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avmich
> he will roll back regulations on fossil fuels

Does it mean no more subsidizing fossil fuel companies?

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johansch
I was really surprised by TSLA not taking a very rough and immediate hit. It
took a slight hit after a while though,

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pman2000
Awesome! Another reason for outrage. That's exactly what we need.

At this point, shouldn't he be trying to get the 'other' half of the country
on his side instead of pissing them off further?

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pklausler
On the plus side for Tesla, though, there's probably going to be fewer
liberals buying cars from the Rust Belt states.

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anon1253
Hey Elon, just move all your assets and manufacturing to Europe!

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merc285
More typical anti-trump propaganda. Tesla is a private company. Trump supports
free market and private business. He even went as far to say he wants to
improve our efforts in space.

This is also from the Washington Post. The mainstream media has zero
credibility at this point.

~~~
saretired
Trump received a 40-year, $120 million full tax abatement from NYC for the
Grand Hyatt (Newsweek 6/17/90) . He sought a residential tax abatement for
Trump Tower, an abatement designed for low- and middle-income housing (NYT,
8/6/1983), and an abatement for another luxury tower, Trump Palace, and for
Trump International Hotel (NYT 7/17/94). He sought a $356 million low-interest
loan from the federal government for the West Side Yards, received a $34
million tax abatement in Florida, and had the assessed value of a Las Vegas
property lowered from $180 million to $8.6 million (LA Times, 5/11/2011).

~~~
merc285
please explain to me how this has anything to do with tesla

~~~
saretired
Well, if you read the article, it mentions the tax breaks that Tesla buyers
get, and that the "future of these tax credits may come into question based on
Trump's opposition to the government picking winners and losers."

How is constantly seeking government hand-outs capitalism? How is taking those
hand-outs not allowing the government to pick winners and losers?

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dreta
If Tesla’s not competitive, then it’s not competitive. I’m glad to see the
government involvement being reduced. Let the free market handle things.

~~~
codingdave
Letting the free market handle things works, IF your only goal is economic.
And while that is important, there are bigger pictures to worry about. Like,
preserving a habitable planet.

~~~
merc285
yes because we can undo china and india's record breaking smog and pollution.
/s

~~~
flukus
Assuming manufacturing got moved back to America then yes, it can be solved.

~~~
codingdave
Even if not, giving up on doing the right thing just because other countries
aren't helping is a very short-sighted approach to worldwide leadership. We
can lead the efforts towards a better world.

