
The Airline of the Future - yomrwhite
https://twitter.com/romanitup/status/1242866315997728768
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NikolaeVarius
Why are we supposed to believe anything this person says.

Twitter profile shows CTO of a bitcoin startup and i don't see anything else
that this person knows anything above baseline about airlines.

Comments seem like "Things that I think would make a ideal airline if I
controlled the universe"

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scarejunba
It's a classic idea generation exercise. It isn't a prediction even if worded
as such. I found it interesting.

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gregoriol
I'm really really skeptical on the one: "This model also allows a lot more
freedom to crew members, without them letting airlines run their lives. Pilots
would be less sleep deprived (which is crucial) due to more flexibility. They
essentially become freelancers.". Sounds a lot like Uber, doesn't actually
provide the freedom nor sleep one expected...

This looks like a startup idea that, if Softbank puts some billions in, could
again fuck up an entire industry, and let people down.

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mprev
Uncited thoughts of non-aviation person from unrelated industry who says they
know no one in the airline industry.

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LatteLazy
Ya, more rambling twitter nonsense from some no body!

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redis_mlc
How the airline business works:

\- airlines are heavily regulated

\- slots are owned by airlines

\- pilot unions control major US airlines

\- a large percentage of airliners are already owned by leasing companies

\- airline flights are dispatched

\- airlines hedge fuel prices in advance.

\- pilot training is done on specific models and they do route checks. Their
"personal business model" is based on seniority at one airline, not like Uber
drivers

\- virtually anybody can start a new airline under the above rules.

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yomrwhite
Once the market situation changes (already did, actually) these things will
change too. Regulations, slots & unions are things to have during the good
times. Unions won't save you when there's no demand, no one will buy slots
when there's no demand, regulations are useless if no one is flying.

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mooreds
Interesting perspective.

It seems like an uberpool in the sky.

My question is, the risk of owning the planes needs to land _somewhere_. Who
holds that bag?

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leetcrew
according to the tweets, the concept is that the airline books a plane and
crew from a charter company, shifting the risk onto them. this implies the
charter industry drastically scales up.

the separation of concerns definitely makes this an appealing concept from an
engineer's perspective, but it's probably not great for the airline. if you
don't actually fly/own the planes yourself, you probably lose most of your
ability to differentiate yourself from competitors. plus the charter companies
are going to be a lot harder to push around than a bunch of uber drivers, so
they probably end up capturing most of the profit themselves.

edit: I also doubt that "most passengers" would be okay with the arrival time
(or even date!) being TBD at the time of booking. for city-to-city travel, it
might be fine, but if the flight is just the first leg of a journey that ends
with a four hour drive, you probably want to know in advance that you're not
arriving at 10pm local time.

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cardiffspaceman
> _if you don 't actually fly/own the planes yourself, you probably lose most
> of your ability to differentiate yourself from competitors_

There's been a whole ad campaign by someone who says we are being fooled by
the big legacy airlines when they delegate their routes to SkyWest or
HorizonAir. These operators don't seem to be too different to the charters
that you're talking about.

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leetcrew
I'd actually never heard of either of those before reading your comment. looks
like skywest flies routes for american airlines, delta, and united. frankly I
don't fly those very much and I couldn't tell you what the difference between
those brands is supposed to be in the first place. horizon seems to be an odd
setup. they only fly for alaska airlines which is owned by the same company as
horizon itself (?).

I mainly fly southwest, which I find to be a markedly different experience
than the other US domestic airlines.

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nunez
I hate to burst this guys bubble, but:

1) Airlines not owning any aircraft or flight crew have existed since forever.
It's called "wet leasing", and all of the majors do it to some degree.

2) The concept that OP is describing (essentially UberPool) has already been
tried. The most recent iteration of this is from Blackbird, and, assuming you
can work out the legal issues, it is much more expensive than flying
commercial because of unions, fuel, airport fees (which you as the airline
owner still have to pay, even if the aircraft is under lease) and safety.

3) The model of scheduling flights based on crowdsourcing demand would work if
aircraft wasn't bloody fucking expensive and everyone didn't want to go to
their destination right now for as cheaply as possible. The problem is that
aircraft is bloody fucking expensive and most people want to go to their
destination right now as cheaply as possible. In order to make the economics
work, you have to schedule flights, and because tons of factors go into that,
you have to do this well in advance.

4) The reason why Spirit Airlines, known for "notoriously cheap" flights, and
Southwest Airlines are the most profitable airlines right now (and are the
least worried about what's happening right now, which is to say, they are
shitting their pants less than the other guys) is because people absolutely
want to travel and will go to great lengths to do it. People visit families.
People attend sports events and concerts. People want to hang out in places
that aren't home. VACATIONS. All of these are things that air travel has made
significantly easier because, let's face it, folks would rather fly for 1.5
hours than drive for 8 if they can afford it.

If only businesses and wealthy folks (i.e. OP, maybe) were the only people who
wanted to fly, a coach seat from LaGuardia to Miami would be at least $1200
and y'all here would want to work for American Airlines instead of Facebook
because it would pay well and come with travel benefits (i.e. the 50s, 60s and
70s).

Now, for real talk:

1\. Airlines are hurting, but many of the legacy carriers have switched to
flying cargo because who else is gonna deliver 10M N95 masks to Germany hot
off the press? Given the demand at the moment, many are willing to pay the
premium prices airlines are setting.

2\. I (and probably many others) can almost guarantee that the day/week that
COVID-19 becomes manageable (through vaccine, anti-viral or otherwise), travel
demand will shoot through the moon. 9/11 was devastating long-term because
many people are afraid of flying, and ramming two narrowbodies into tall
buildings exacerbated that. This, while potentially more devastating than 9/11
economically, really has nothing to do with flying.

3\. If anything, airlines will use this experience to learn how to build their
reserves more efficiently. Things will definitely change, but I don't think
the changes will be as drastic as OP claims (or as 9/11 was to the industry,
and rightfully so).

