
Apple's iTouch Tablet Will Become Its Flagship Product - Flemlord
http://seekingalpha.com/article/151137-why-apple-s-itouch-tablet-will-become-its-flagship-product?source=yahoo
======
cesare
> We are witnessing a transition in the way the Internet is used. Mobile
> content requires a tailor made user experience that is not efficiently
> delivered by the traditional website model. Although we have grown
> accustomed to navigating the Web by browsing websites on our PC, consumers
> are showing an affinity for the App Store model.

Couldn't agree more.

Some of us might dislike this but it's hard not to see where the users are
going.

At least in the near future. But I can't foresee a reason for turning back to
the browser.

Appstores are also a solution to all the speculations about how to monetize
content. If the medium is the message, websites (when interacting with them
with the browser) are mostly perceived as free content. Appstores are a
different brainframe.

Like I said in other comments I'm just observing the trend. I'm not saying
that I'm absolutely happy with this.

~~~
boucher
I think it's hard to make the claim that apps are more popular than websites
on the iPhone. Unfortunately, it's hard to find data on overall mobile web
traffic (or total web traffic in general), but over 60% of all web traffic
from a mobile device comes from the iPhone. My guess, though, is that the
number of websites visited since the iPhone's release hugely eclipses the
number of apps downloaded.

And I'm not sure you can call the app store a monetization solution either,
considering that >90% of all downloads are free apps.

~~~
allenbrunson
that's not what I've heard at all.

[http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/07/15/free-apps-no-longer-
dom...](http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/07/15/free-apps-no-longer-dominating-
iphone-app-store/)

according to that article, only 20 percent of apps in the store are free.

~~~
daeken
Apps in the app store and apps downloaded are two very different things, and
that article doesn't cover the latter.

~~~
boucher
Exactly. We're talking about download ratios, not sheer number of apps
available. And the total numbers are extremely lopsided in favor of free apps.

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bensummers
More accurately titled "I want you to believe Apple will have another iPhone-
like hit because I'm long on Apple stock, and I'm pitching my hopes on the
Apple tablet rumours finally being correct (it's got to happen someday, hasn't
it?)".

But that's not quite so catchy a title.

~~~
tvon
I don't agree with the article but I don't think it's fair to accuse the
author of trying to sway opinion for the sake of his stock. After all, he
probably wouldn't be long on AAPL if he didn't believe what he was writing.

~~~
bensummers
I'm just getting a bit bored of all the Apple tablet rumours. They've been
circulating for years.

~~~
tvon
Yeah, I agree. I suppose now that the phone is out we'll be stuck with
tablet/netbook rumors for the next half decade until the next big "wouldn't it
be cool if Apple made a ____ " comes along.... probably something wearable...

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conorgil145
A tablet will simply never replace the Kindle and other readers like it such
as thins article suggests. One of the most important feature of the Kindle is
that it uses E-Ink! It holds a particular screen and only uses charge to
change the text when a "page flip" occurs. A tablet will not come remotely
close to matching this kind of machine in battery life or readability (since
e-ink is less harsh on the eyes than an lcd).

I think people comparing the Kindle to the mysterious Apple Tablet is getting
out of control. If Amazon would just lower the crazy price tag on the kindle
it would spread like wild fire.....

I am anxious to see what apple does with tablet tech though. I own a tablet
already and if apple can make a better one for cheaper I would consider
switching.

~~~
MaysonL
Re tablets replacing Kindles: think PixelQi.

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snewe
Someone needs to keep track of these types of predictions and track how often
the author is wrong. It is costless to make big predictions, because rarely do
people come back and say "You were wrong." It would be nice if I could search
for this author's forecasting performance.

~~~
reidman
That was the entire premise of my YC app back in 2007, actually. Here's a
mockup, in case anyone's interested in working on it ;D

<http://reidesign.us/misc/veracifyWebsite3-5.png>

Promises are used like credit, but the tab often goes unpaid because people
forget. Politicians, blogs (especially Apple blogs), and talking heads have
made an art of exploiting this 'loophole', so it would be nice to have a
website where you could track their past performance re: promises and
predictions.

~~~
snewe
Exactly what I thought someone should write. I gather it didn't work out
because it was difficult to monetize?

~~~
reidman
Honestly, it just never went anywhere. I'd pick it up today if I wasn't
already seeing a lot of success bootstrapping an online retail store. It's
often in the back of my mind, though.

In a roundabout way, I suppose monetization is the root problem -- I didn't
(and still don't) have the time/money/connections necessary for a Twitter-
style 'build it and the money will come' business plan.

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jsz0
I very much doubt it. I see a limited market for this type of device.

Too expensive for the netbook market. Too big and redundant for the iPhone
market. Too slow & limited for the MacBook Pro market.

So who buys it? PMP fanatics? Tablet fanatics? There's probably a healthy
niche market there (ala Macbook Air) but not enough consumers to be a flagship
product. All bets are off if Apple releases it at a much lower price point
than rumored. A subsidized offering might play but only if Apple can work with
carriers who offer reasonable data-only prices.

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axod
This is a ridiculous 'article'. Where to start... Just flag it Ronnie, just
flag it.

~~~
piramida
It seems that "connecting the dots" failed in this article on so many
levels...

1\. No, I don't consider .99 fart apps as revolutionary improvement of my
living room

2\. Netbooks and Amazon kindles/other ebook readers comprise one of the most
rapidly growing markets, "fad"? Whatever.

3\. Skype is already here. And, "free" and "Apple" don't go next to each other
in a sentence. Steve will find a way to monetize on your free skype chats.

4\. Take any other non-apple phone - see, no carrier exclusivity.. right now,
without needing to go to the future and buy new apple gadget.

No really, I think it might live in some homes but revolution? Now come on,
there's not a single hint. I think it will be EOLed by 2011.

~~~
jstevens85
Isn't a "rapidly growing market" part of the definition of a fad?

~~~
potatolicious
Yes, but a fad involves a rapidly growing market, whereas a rapidly growing
market does not necessarily have to be a fad.

I don't think netbooks are a fad, but I also don't think they will last in the
long term. Netbook manufacturers have been cannibalizing their higher-margin
products with razor thin margins on their netbooks. This cannot continue if
these companies expect to survive.

Not to mention netbooks have been absolutely destroying user experiences all
around.

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blhack
As seen here: <http://www.gibsonandlily.com/blogs/72>

I have heard countless rumors like this one; about apple developing a tablet.

The question becomes "why?".

I think that very few people would try to make the argument that the iPhone
has NOT been a phenomenal success. Lets look at why...

The iPhone is a computer. A pretty one, that can run lots of shiny, pretty
apps covered in gradients. When people see it, they are immediately aware of
how hip the person wielding it is. Apple took everything great about their
desktop computers (pretty, fashionable, stable, simple) and condensed them all
into a small, even more fashionable, even more convenient, simple package
called an iBook. Coffee shop dwellers wielding an iBook could let their fellow
caffeine-solution enjoyers just how hip they were, just how PRODUCTIVE they
were with their wonderful macbooks.

Then came the iPhone. Apple took all the wonderful things about their desktops
(stability, simplicity, etc.) plus all the wonderful things about their
notebooks (simple, fashionable) and combined them into a wonderful even MORE
portable packaged called an iPhone. This iPhone could be carried in its
owner's pocket. The look-at-me oppurtunities were endless. People could admire
the superior technical prowess (complete with white apple logo displayed in
stark contrast the black case on the back of the thing) of iPhone users on the
train, or on the bus, or on the sidewalk, or in a coffee shop, or the office,
or in the kitchen, at a restaurant...ANYWHERE!

A tablet, however...what does this supposedly offer that the iPhone doesn't?
It isn't as mobile, meaning less oppurtunites for look-at-me, it would likely
run Mac OSX or some derivative of it.. meaning a hefty tax to the apple
gods...it would undoubtedly be covered in ultra-high-gloss plastic, meaning
that any hopes of replacing something like a panasonic toughbook would be
seriously mis-guided.

The only market that apple has not yet tried to dominate, and that it is in
any sort of position to even enter, is netbooks.

They had a sort-of false-start called the MacBook Air, something that I think
everybody would agree is an example of just how much of a failure apple can
produce.

The next itteration of the iPhone is, most certainly, a netbook. The question
is whether or not apple is willing to forfeit its position as a luxury item in
exchange for increased penetration. A sub-300-dollar netbook is something that
is likely NOT in apple's future.

Apple has got something really great going for them right now. People WANT an
apple. Macs are seen as something that is, in some way, better than their
windows-based counterparts. Even Microsoft seems to be willing to admit this
in their latest ads.

In conclusion, apple will NOT be creating a tablet; it simply does not follow
with the current trend of their products. If anything, they will produce a
$500 netbook that is still seen as "better" than its competitors. If this
happens, I predict low market penetration and ultimate failure.

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semiquaver
he forgot "fucking expensive" in his list. An iPhone is supported by a massive
carrier subsidy. an iTablet would likely cost upwards of $700, seriously
limiting its mass-market appeal.

Also, I'm rooting for nokia's next generation n900 tablet series.

~~~
misuba
The first iPod - look at those stats! So limited! - was $400. So I wouldn't
pronounce this one dead out of the gate. (I wouldn't pronounce it a home run
either, but with the right marketing, who knows?)

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lunchbox
What would be the intended target market/use case for such a device? Are
people expected to carry around both this and a smartphone at the same time?

~~~
madebylaw
Well as a color e-book reader it would be way better than anything out there
now. That is, if apple could manage the distribution correctly. So I can
imagine, say, kids in college buying books on their device instead of carrying
around heavy sheets of paper.

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lsb
How is the concept of an iTouch tablet any different from a jailbroken iPhone
with a bigger screen and a DisplayPort output?

~~~
tdavis
And what happens when you give it a full-featured version of Safari? Does
everyone still use closed App Store apps when you've got Safari on a 10.1"
screen?

I know a _lot_ of developers would prefer to create web apps tailored to an
iTouch via Cappuccino or whatever, rather than battle the App Store for
inclusion. Even Apple started off telling app developers to use Mobile Safari
along with standard HTML and Javascript.

This guy's suit-logic is a waste of time.

~~~
lsb
It's not suit-logic: I'm genuinely interested. Gruber had a blog post about
how PowerBook specs from 2002 are equivalent to iPhone specs, and the Air's
got gesture support. And Apple hasn't pre-announced anything, obviously, so
everything that everyone's saying is pure speculation.

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jpwagner
This guy should consider comparing what he speculates about this product with
other imminent products (ie crunchpad...)

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mattdennewitz
"Apple Finally has an App Machine" – aw, geez, i thought thats what my macbook
was

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rimantas
I don't see how can it be more popular than iPhone/iPod Touch and successors.

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Tichy
If it was e-ink, maybe. Seems unlikely, though.

