
Economic deja vu hitting tech startups - gibsonf1
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/04/22/BUU610261L.DTL
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pxlpshr
Web 2.0 is becoming convoluted with me-too-variants, it's the same thing that
happened toward the end of 1.0. Early-adopters and technocrats see past the
distortion, but your mass-consumer does not. Growth for middle-to-late comers
does not match that of the early 2.0ers for which they've structured their
model around...

In many cases, these socially focused applications/sites are caught in a
whirl-pool... interest trickles-in and trickles-out, making it difficult to
self-sustain the business, particularly when it relies on the end-user for
content. While Twitter is doing well now, I believe they suffered a full year
paddling against this traffic current.

In addition, I feel there are too many startups trying to encompass
everything-social shooting for that big valuation; focus on low-commitment
reward for the end user and get the data later. Rolling out with with a stage
set for 10,000,000 makes adoption intimidating, and makes your infrastructure
costs a significant burden.

3.0 will see an increase in service-oriented applications and hopefully a rise
in XMPP whereby data of interest comes to you, you don't go to it... With all
the major communication networks moving over to Jabber, it's shaping to be the
next secondary telecom-market. I believe Facebook is poised early to make a
move here, as they are mirroring GTalks success integrating with GMail. The
beauty of Jabber is that it's essentially universal and real-time, so services
can be network-agnostic (ie: AIM, MSN, Gtalk, etc..). Think communication-bot
on steroids.

A tech recession is normal and welcoming TBH. It filters out some of the
pollution and with a globalized market, there's an abundance of it..

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sharpshoot
This is over analysis to the point of paranoia. I've written about the
counterview here: <http://blog.snaptalent.com/?p=9>

