
Are You Ready for the Financial Crisis of 2019? - paulpauper
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/10/style/2019-financial-crisis.html
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adetrest
A broken clock is right twice a day. These articles get old, if you predict a
financial crash "very soon" (as has been the case for years now), you'll
eventually be right. It doesn't mean you predicted accurately, you just got
lucky.

~~~
cinquemb
Are you buying/long now? If so, what are you buying?

~~~
adetrest
I buy 4 index funds (domestic stocks, foreign stocks, domestic bonds, foreign
bonds), same amount, every month. I don't pick stocks because I don't believe
that's a viable strategy.

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ryansmccoy
Let's be completely honest for just a second, the left-leaning/never-trump
news sources (i.e. nytimes, wapo, bloomberg, reuters, possibly the economist)
are clamoring for a recession and right-leaning/pro-trump news sources (i.e.
foxnews, maybe wsj) do not see a recession in sight.

In the most recently reported quarter, Q318, the S&P 500 saw Earnings growth
+28% Year-over-year (IBES) and Sales Growth +8.5% Year-over-Year. On a forward
looking basis (the more important indicator), estimates for 2019 are currently
at Sales Growth +5.6% Year-over-Year and Earnings growth of +8.5% Year-over-
year (which is a more normalized trend, remember tax-cuts will become a head-
wind in 2019).

IMO, the two biggest risks to the market, 1) China Trade Deal, 2) Slowing of
Raising of Interest Rates. If you see progress in either of these, I think
you'll see the market follow in suit. In terms of what's currently priced into
the market, I'd say that a more pessimistic scenario is currently being priced
in and thus risk/reward favors the upside.

IMO, the markets have a psychological component to them and the fear of an
upcoming recession can cause a recession. So, these articles are like adding
fuel to a fire, "Recessions have psychological and confidence aspects. For
example, if companies expect economic activity to slow, they may reduce
employment levels and save money rather than invest. Such expectations can
create a self-reinforcing downward cycle, bringing about or worsening a
recession." [1]

Finally, I think the following excerpt, written by a former Morgan Stanley
Equity Research Analyst, does a great job at explaining how one might approach
analyzing the news:

"Be skeptical, very skeptical, and even more skeptical. Great analysts rarely
accept anything at face value. ... Good Analysts always challenge what they've
been told or given. Over time, if a source of information proves accurate, let
it into your circle or trust. If we include the financial press, and
everything distributed by companies, I'd say at least 75% of the information
out there for consumption is misleading or omits an important piece of
information relative to the topic." [2]

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession)

[2] [https://www.amazon.com/Best-Practices-Equity-Research-
Analys...](https://www.amazon.com/Best-Practices-Equity-Research-
Analysts/dp/0071736387)

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thatoneuser
I really hate to make generalizations about either side tanking the integrity
of the news, but I’m at the point of total over saturation for believing the
left’s cries about doomsday being around the corner. I just emotionally and
mentally have a hard time accepting it. It’s been more than 2 years (nearly
3?) of this type of nonsense.

All our allies will turn on us. We will be engaged in more and more wars. The
economy will rank, jobs will disappear, and every social benefit we’ve built
over the last century will be eradicated. That’s all I’ve heard since Trump
got on our radar. And so far I look around and none of it’s come to pass.

It’s the boy who cried wolf. Maybe the economy will take a nose dive. Maybe.
But I’m done investing myself in the major reporting channels. They’ve
demonstrated to me that being accurate or reflective isn’t even an
afterthought for them. They’d rather stir the pot for financial gain and then
absolve themselves of responsibility. Not a behavior I’m going to invest my
beliefs into any further.

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throwaway98121
Your views are entirely subjective.

To many, Trumps foreign policy seems to be centered on breaking down Western
order in favor of despots and not from a strategic perspective in favor of
American interests but entirely his own financial schemes.

Just about everyone from his administration has resigned, is in the midst of
some investigation despite the Republican Party owning all branches of
government, or both.

There have been over 30 indictments related to the various investigations the
last time I checked.

The market has recently been wiped pretty hard. Issues are student loan debt
are only getting worse, with the education secretary openly supporting
predatory lending.

I haven’t even gotten to the environmental rollbacks.

I’m not saying the media is on Trump because they stand on some moral
pedestal, but I do think something is seriously messed up, orthogonal to what
any journalist or entertainer claims.

The thing Trump has succeeded at is propaganda. If only not for immigrants
whether legal or illegal, it would be like the good old times when blacks were
slaves or at least had to use separate water fountains. Hispanics and Muslims
are supposedly parasites. I’m just repeating the things I hear my staunchly
pro Trump colleagues say at work at a very Republican company (energy).

I have one coworker who literally said she’d support Trump even if he was
found to be working with Russia the whole time. She believes he’s the only one
who can protect us from Shariah law.

I think there are several real issues in this country. My personal politics
are fiscal conservatism while being socially liberal. I’m now a democrat
although I voted against Obama twice because the Republican Party has become
the party of blind nationalism led by a conman with a deemphasis on critical
thinking.

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sbmthakur
> To many, Trumps foreign policy seems to be centered on breaking down Western
> order in favor of despots and not from a strategic perspective in favor of
> American interests but entirely his own financial schemes.

As if the CIA didn't prop up "despots" back in the day. There was no Trump
when the US was supporting Pol Pot or the brutal East Pakistan regime.

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Bombthecat
I don't think there will be a crisis. Maybe a little correction. But than
stocks will keep rising. Especially high tech, robot, automation etc stocks..

