
Mac’s share falls to five-year low - danjoc
http://www.computerworld.com/article/3155088/apple-mac/macs-share-falls-to-five-year-low.html
======
jameslk
I keeping hearing the narrative from this crowd that the MBP is on its way out
of being in vogue for developers, but I don't buy it at all.

First of all, this is market share up to the release of the new MBP. It's not
surprising that their market share has been slipping given that up to this
point they haven't released a significant update to the MBP since 2013.

But getting to the point, the Mac ecosystem is now ingrained into open source
development. Believe me I used to use a PC not too long ago and nothing would
work because OS software is designed to run on top of a NIX environment. I
recently had to go through this exercise with a colleague who was in denial.
But over time, it ends up the same: software built to run on Linux servers
runs best under an environment that is designed more like Linux. He now owns a
MBP.

So Windows is out (for non .NET devs). That leaves us with what, Linux itself
as the OS? Anyone who suggests doing this either hasn't done it before or has
way too much time on their hands. I use macOS because I don't have time to
hunt for drivers, trying to understand an obscure error discussed in a long
forum thread or having all my software no longer work just because I updated a
package. I've already tried that twice once with Gentoo and then with Ubuntu
years later hoping it would be different. I know plenty of others who have as
well. Ultimately we have jobs and we need to debug our own software.

Which brings us back to the Mac. I fully expect this release to be their
Windows 8 moment, a beta event from which they will recover from given time
for hardware to catch up. Not every release can be a stellar event. Give it
time.

~~~
gshulegaard
> the Mac ecosystem is now ingrained into open source development.

Interesting...

> Anyone who suggests doing this either hasn't done it before or has way too
> much time on their hands.

Oh...

Quick question, when was the last time you did it?

Currently I have three full time Linux boxes:

* Custom PC build I did myself

* System76 Galago UltraPro

* Dell XPS 13 Developer Edition

Oddly enough, the one that gave me the most issues was the Dell supported XPS
13 DE but I didn't have to do a thing, just waited for driver updates from
Dell which I could install via:

> sudo apt-get update

> sudo apt-get upgrade

But at the end of it I have a Linux laptop with premium build quality, 8 hour
battery life (with 4K screen), and an external battery pack that easily
extends my battery to a full day of work before needing an outlet.

My company gave me a Mac, but literally _every_ other computer I personally
own, right down to the Dell T710 server I have is running Linux (Ubuntu
14.04.3 specifically) without issue.

I don't expect Linux to take over the Desktop market. But for Developers I see
the current MBP as just another reason to seriously consider just getting a
Linux laptop from an OEM like Dell or a niche player like System76.

Let's face it, this MBP just highlights the fact that its target market is not
developers or power users. Which is fine, and it probably can be a successful
product with or without us...

~~~
fritzw
The second you compile one package to get any of those boxes to work, for me,
the pro-linux box argument is negated. Particularly for work machines, I don't
have time to compile and install just to get my box up and running. Mac worked
for me for this reason, I presume the reasons are the same for many. You like
the freedom and power your boxes allot you, I like the simple operation of the
mac. My problem is Macs are quickly becoming more work with all of there
services and issues. When I start having to search for drivers online I might
consider switching to Linux, but this won't be a cure all, because I deal too
much in graphics.

~~~
eikenberry
> The second you compile one package to get any of those boxes to work, for
> me, the pro-linux box argument is negated.

This seems a strange things to say considering everyone I know who uses a Mac
for dev uses homebrew, which compiles as part of the install.

~~~
robotmlg
Homebrew tries to download a binary for pretty much every package, and only
rarely compiles from source.

~~~
nkkollaw
True. It used to be like that at the beginning, but now it's rare.

------
eridius
PSA: This "news" comes courtesy of a company called Net Applications, which
I've never heard of before. Looks like they're a web analytics firm. So take
this with a huge grain of salt, because they can't actually see real user
share, all they can see is the share of people who browse to their clients'
sites.

~~~
bitflipman
So what would be the best way to estimate OS market share? Stopping short from
including household OS usage in worldwide census?

~~~
eridius
I'm not sure, but you could start by asking someone who's in a position to
observe a much larger portion of internet usage. For example, I bet CloudFlare
could collect some interesting statistics.

~~~
CamelCaseName
While CloudFlare would be a much better source, I think it's not so bad to
compare a large number of sites, with their previous selves.

------
vijucat
Also see the relative growth of /r/buildapc vs. /r/apple:
[http://redditmetrics.com/r/buildapc#compare=apple](http://redditmetrics.com/r/buildapc#compare=apple)
(click on Total Subscribers). March 2013 was the crossover point.

I'm trying to compare Apple on it's own turf here (tapping into the enthusiasm
of retail / consumer folks). That's a lot of mindshare lost, IMHO, by defining
themselves as the "Bose of computer hardware".

Important mindshare at that: young people. Once these young folks struggle
with BSODs, fiddling with BIOS settings, NVidia drivers, screwdrivers and
thermal paste, and get a rig up and running, it becomes an addiction. I find
it ironic that it is the very opposite of what Apple offers, a trouble-free
"It just works" experience, that is the appealing factor of /r/buildapc.

The one thing they should have learned from Steve is: everything has a
context; it's OK to change your opinion.

~~~
akgerber
I'm not sure I believe your assertion that building a PC makes people love it
for life— I built a PC in high school, then switched over to a Macbook for
college and haven't looked back.

Now that fiddling with computers is my job, it's less appealing as a hobby.

~~~
electic
Agree. I used to build PCs as well. I even had a review site that received 2MM
uniques a month and manufacturers would send me motherboards and top end video
cards, for free, to review. I loved making PCs but would I trade my Macbook
Pro and go back to a PC/Windows setup, no.

I don't imagine anyone would want to go thru that. Getting a case, fiddling
with screws, power supplies, Video Card, and CPUs. Even worse, it is highly
error prone. Do something wrong and POOF that 800 dollar CPU you bought is
toast.

~~~
quickben
Arguably, you a trading the chance to lose 800 with a guaranteed loss of
around that much, just by paying the Apple premium.

~~~
electic
800 is the tip of the iceberg. There is a lot that "just works" in an Apple
ecosystem.

~~~
CamelCaseName
I was briefly an Macbook Pro user for four months (recently went back in late
Dec.) could you talk a bit more about features that "just work" in Apple?

------
alphaomegacode
Whether this was a reflection of overall PC slowdown, I don't know but Apple
execs need to make some course corrections sooner rather than later.

The apparent neglect of developers with respect to some of the changes (and
non-changes) in the laptop and desktop lines seems to be giving many
developers pause and concern.

~~~
sounds
One thing that Windows (somewhat famously) gets is "developers! developers!
developers!"

Apple has a passionate, loyal developer community. Developers who create iOS
apps use OS X machines to do it. They spend almost twice as much on an OS X
machine (vs. a Windows machine) to get over the barrier to entry.

Apple has never made anywhere close to the same investment in their developers
that their developers have made in Apple. Their mindset can be summarized as
(I think):

1\. iOS and OS X are "easy to develop on" (so Apple thinks) so WWDC is
sufficient as far as developer relations. Lately even WWDC is an empty shell.

2\. Huge software failures don't seem to touch Apple's revenue stream (e.g.
Maps, iCloud, security exploits), which over time makes Apple more and more
deaf to the realities of software outside their company.

3\. Apple execs are "courageous" and visionary. The company has a very top-
down culture.

~~~
Eridrus
I think Microsoft forgot about developers for a while. The Windows 8 timeframe
wasn't a great time to be a Microsoft developer. They have been recovering
mindshare lately, but it's the same back and forth. It's less clear that
developer mindshare even matters as much these days when the web is the real
desktop platform for most software.

~~~
pjmlp
Depends on the developers you talk to.

As someone whose Windows dev experience goes back to Windows 3.0, I was
thrilled with WinRT, having Visual C++ finally catching up with C++ Builder
and .NET finally going properly native as it should have been since .NET 1.0.

~~~
bostand
Yeah, but they also started a number of projects only to kill them later (eg
Silverlight). This was very annoying for developers who had invested a lot of
time.

Hopefully things will be more stable now.

------
fjarlq
Why does StatCounter disagree? They find OS X user share currently at an all-
time high of 11%: [http://gs.statcounter.com/#desktop-os-ww-
monthly-200807-2016...](http://gs.statcounter.com/#desktop-os-ww-
monthly-200807-201612)

~~~
fjarlq
StatCounter's answer to that question: [http://gs.statcounter.com/faq#net-
apps](http://gs.statcounter.com/faq#net-apps)

~~~
tyfon
This stuck out for me, but I might be wrong:

Net Apps base their stats on unique visitors per site per day. ("We 'count'
unique visitors to our network sites, and only count one unique visit to each
network site per day.") We [StatCounter] base our stats on page views

So if an os x user read more pages than a linux user on a specific site, that
same user will have more "weight" in the statcounter analysis.

Basically.. different methods that actually measures different things.

------
innocentoldguy
I can understand the fall, since I myself am torn or the subject. I am a huge
fan of Apple laptops for two reasons: 1. I can do all my development on the
same Unix environment I run Adobe and various DAWs on. 2. Apple's trackpads.
Having said that, I've been considering a move back to my previous two-laptop
setup; one Linux machine for development and general use, and one Windows
machine (shudder) for Adobe and DAWs. I can get a PC with the same specs or
better than a Mac, with memory capacities up to 32GB of RAM (twice what Apple
offers), for around $1,000.00 less. I could also solve the problem of the
vanishing hardware (e.g. ports, Esc key, etc.) by going this route.

However, I still like macOS a million times more than I like Windows. I'm not
ready to switch yet, but I'm thinking about it. If Apple continues to neglect
their Mac line, and fail to offer specs comparable to their competitors, my
thoughts may turn into action. I imagine others are feeling the same way.

------
themihai
They are expensive and underpowered. I used to get the top of the line macbook
but it's not worth it anymore. It's starts to look like the John Sculley era.
If it wasn't for the pro audio support I would jump on the linux boat.

~~~
edblarney
Apple prices like a luxury item: no sales etc..

But the thing is - tech is not like fashion. You can't just call it 'Gucci'
and hold the plebes at bay with high prices.

It's utility - so when there is less utility, people will drop apple and go
elsewhere.

If they want to keep luxury brand status they actually have to provide
something of value.

~~~
dijit
This is an odd sentiment to hear on HN.

We are usually technical people, surely we can see past "spec" as the only
differentiator of two laptops.

Apple are priced like a high-end business quality laptop. (except upgrades are
a higher mark-up) if you compare laptops based on the quality of their build
Apple laptops are quite competitive.[0]

That's before you factor in little things that don't seem to make it to
business line laptops even like protection against USBKiller[1] and getting
BIOS firmware updates 8 years after buying a laptop.[2]

It's disingenuous to compare an Apple Macbook with an Acer Aspire on things
like specification without taking into account all the little things.

If you haven't noticed, spec selling has thoroughly destroyed the bottom end
of the laptop market, it's super difficult today to get a decent quality
laptop because manufacturers are just throwing out devices with high spec and
corner cuts everywhere else.

I say this, as a person attempting to buy a Dell Precision 5520. I'm not an
apple fanboy, but I appreciate quality. It's not a fashion label.

[0] [http://i.imgur.com/Gjnr0sw.png](http://i.imgur.com/Gjnr0sw.png)

[1] [http://www.express.co.uk/life-style/science-
technology/71174...](http://www.express.co.uk/life-style/science-
technology/711745/USB-killer-2-0-Macbook-Pro-Apple-Macbook-Air)

[2] [https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT201518](https://support.apple.com/en-
us/HT201518)

~~~
themihai
You may compare apples to oranges because the CPU and other components may be
slightly different(usually they are older and cheaper on the mac). It's a
known fact that Apple has the highest(by far) margins on laptops.

Apple used to be priced and marketed as a high-end business quality laptop but
now I feel it's marked more as a lifestyle product.

~~~
dijit
the CPU is on display for the precision 5510 in the screenshot.

That's the same CPU used in the high end 15" macbook pro. I'm failing to see
how what you said holds true when the original price of the Dell is $1,000
higher than the Macbook. (with a smaller m.2 SSD, even.)

------
davidf18
IBM for one is converting their laptops to mostly Macs, claiming to calls to
support is way down compared with users of PCs (e.g., look at total cost of
ownership -- TCO). IBM has software which helps to deploy Macs in the
Enterprise.

The integration of Macs/ Mac OS with the iPhone / iPad eco-system is helpful
as well. I use iMessage a lot on my Mac.

For those that need it, tech support is readily available in Apple stores.

~~~
Someone1234
IBM is selling enterprise Apple support, them claiming that the TCO is lower
is like a car salesman telling you the TCO of their specific brand of vehicle
is lower. Take it with a huge grain of salt. IBM has a vested interest in
pushing Mac enterprise adoption.

------
edblarney
I think it's as simple as better PC's and Macs that have not really improved
and are just really expensive.

~~~
CountSessine
Certainly with laptops; PC laptops 4 years ago were really a cut below the
macbook pro. PC laptops have improved so much in 4 years. And apple just
gimped the latest mbp with a really bad keyboard and another $500 on the
sticker.

------
freehunter
Personally I'm hopeful. I think Apple does their best work when they're on
their back foot. When they get to be the market leader (however you want to
define that term) they get lazy. I wouldn't like to see a repeat of their
situation in 1997, but it certainly did spur some big changes.

~~~
temp246810
While I would agree with you a company is the sum of its people and right now
the personnel at Apple has changed just way too much.

I'm not as hopeful - Apple will continue to be a behemoth, but I'm afraid the
magic is gone. It may not go down the path of HP, but it will be closer to
Dell in the future than to Apple at its Zenith.

------
xja
Does this really matter?

I've also felt that recent mac desktop/laptop releases have been poor. But is
it really important to satisfy the masses in this market? It seems like we're
in a world where most people could be quite happy with doing most things on a
phone or tablet.

That's not to say it isn't likely an important strategic market (after all
it's the only platform you can develop iOS apps on). But having a large share
of this market might not be important.

~~~
coldtea
> _It seems like we 're in a world where most people could be quite happy with
> doing most things on a phone or tablet._

We're not those people, though, and we do care.

> _That 's not to say it isn't likely an important strategic market (after all
> it's the only platform you can develop iOS apps on). But having a large
> share of this market might not be important._

As long as people also have jobs, it will be.

~~~
Eridrus
The reason people make apps for iOS/macOS despite the small market share is
because those users spend a disproportionate amount of money. As long as Apple
keeps them there it doesn't matter.

But, if the people who are spending money are using Apple products because
they enjoy the integration across the entire product line and they become
disillusioned, the whole house of cards could come tumbling down.
Alternatively, if people evangelizing Apple fall in this camp and stop
recommending them, that could also have adverse affects. I don't know if this
will happen, but it's a risk for them for sure.

In the end a killer iPhone can probably solve everything, but Mac users
leaving is definitely a drag.

------
codeddesign
Oh please...this is like saying google shares fell. It's not like there is a
new competitor that entered the marketplace or that mass mac users are jumping
ship like a mass exodos for windows or Linux. It's because they haven't
launched an iPod or iPhone. But I guess people gotta write to get those clicks
these days..

------
zzzcpan
This overall slowdown could be the reason why Apple made a gimmick for
newcomers, i.e. the touch bar. They needed to try to boost sales.

~~~
coldtea
They don't think like that. "Let's make a gimmick for newcomers".

They just legitimately thought it was great and will it enough to impress
people and shut them up about the late revamp of the MBP line.

And it could be good, with certain provisions, but not will all the other BS
coming with it.

The main issue is it seems nobody at the top could see this -- and I mean see
this when they said ok initially, because surely they did know the issues
before launching the machine, when it got to wider testing (before that it was
only small teams that had seen the whole new laptop plus strip, as it their
usual modus operandi).

~~~
Patrick_Devine
If the touchbar is so amazing, why didn't Apple have the courage to just
replace the entire keyboard with one big OLED display?

You can easily see how the touchbar comes across as being gimmicky. Lenovo
already ditched their touch bar on the X1 Carbon (2nd generation) because it
was a terrible idea. Buttons are useful, particularly for people who touch
type.

~~~
coldtea
> _If the touchbar is so amazing, why didn 't Apple have the courage to just
> replace the entire keyboard with one big OLED display?_

Obviously this is no argument.

It basically is: If cake is so amazing why don't we eat cake or day?

Cake is indeed amazing to have in moderation, but it's also not the best thing
to solely eat. We could thrive on just greens and meet maybe, but we'd do
worse with just cake.

Standard alphanumeric keys are used far more often, and people rely on them
far more than they do on function keys (common people, the 95% of users, don't
use debuggers or vim). Without a great haptic feedback story that actually
gives the sense of clicking it would be disaster.

Plus, it would be way costlier, and just give diminishing returns (since most
of the time we just want the alphanumeric keys to be just that, whereas
function keys already had a double life as controller keys for sound, etc).

Third, even if it was ergonomically perfect and likable, it will obviously be
even more power hungry and expensive at this point.

~~~
Patrick_Devine
To make it cheaper, maybe they could just do half the keyboard. Say split it
between 5-6, t-y, g-h, and b-n and just make the left half with an OLED
screen. The best part is they could then sell you a new MBP in two years which
has a full OLED keyboard when the prices have come down.

Back to reality, the problem is that more than 5% of common people use those
function key buttons on a daily basis, and they need that haptic feedback. I
want my computer's volume, playback and brightness controls to be easily
accessible. I also want to be able to use my escape key. I don't want to have
to switch to some other application in order to turn the volume down or pause
my music when I'm interrupted by someone, and it's nice to be able to control
the screen brightness without having to switch applications in order to do so.

