

Ask HN: Where do you see web and desktop apps in 5 years? - OedipusRex

As the browser becomes home to more and more software that traditionally would be desktop only, where do you see web apps and desktop apps in 5 years?
======
lorddoig
Hopefully 5 years is long enough for us to stop and take stock of the
inevitable destination of the browser: an OS in a VM.

With any luck we might finally realise that we're not dealing with "documents"
anymore, that HTML, JS, and CSS do not a good UI framework make, and that JS
simply isn't good enough for what we need it to do and how we need it to do
it.

ECMAScript 7 will be pretty much ready to implement and the standards
committee will realise that they've run out of syntax for ECMAScript 8,
forcing a rethink. Fingers crossed a neckbeard will arrive and point out that
a LISP would be ideal for both defining the "DOM" and providing a base
language for targeting by other languages, who can just (ok, "just") serialize
their ASTs and pass it in.

Seriously: if, in 5 years, we're still perfecting the dominant user-facing
runtime by tweaking an arbitrary XML spec, a language with only one kind of
number, and a styling language so inept it almost _requires_ auto-generation
tools, well I might just kill myself.

~~~
no_future
After doing web for a little bit, ending up loathing it, and then checking out
iOS and enjoying it so far, I couldn't hope for this outcome more. I never
realized how crippled browser based web applications and the ancient, shitty
tools used for creating them are before developing on a web-connected platform
that uses a systems language directly for its applications. Pretty much
anything you can do with a computer, you can do in an iOS/Android app, and it
can connect to the web, which lets you create rich experiences far more
easily. To make any modern web application for a browser, you have to use
garbage like opinionated JS frameworks and a myriad of other crutches and
hacky solutions because the tools for the frontend are incredibly limited and
were not designed for what is demanded of them today. Plus browsers don't
easily support connection protocols other than HTTP, so this leads to a whole
other host of hacky backend solutions for developing so called "real-time"
applications, when you could easily use something like UDP were you not
limited by a browser. Only downside to iOS/Android platforms is that they are
governed basically by the Apple/Google dictatorships(which is somewhat
understandable, because it would be a disaster if anyone could so easily
distribute applications widely capable of executing malicious code on a user's
device), and it is completely up to them what is allowed and what isn't, in
contrast to the open nature of the web. I don't know how this could be
remedied, seeing as there is an undeniable trend of more and more consumer-
facing web activities being done through mobile apps, rather than browsers.
Something like a completely FOSS device OS with a decentralized marketplace;
e.g. anyone with a server can host their application, similar to how it is
with jailbroken/rooted phones? This still wouldn't solve the problem of people
being able to execute malicious code on a user device, but I guess if you
think about it it isnt much different from some idiot downloading "free
cursors" from some malware site and giving themselves a virus like what
happens all the time today.

~~~
passfree
Really? Web technologies are much easier to work with and make a much better
UI toolkit. Just look at the share amount of developers doing Web stuff and
compare them with the amount of developers doing iOS.

And btw, iOS development is easy for as long as you do not want to customize
things. Once you start changing the standard controls you are entering the
land of no return.

Now compare this with web technologies which are designed to be customizable.

~~~
MarkMc
> Just look at the share amount of developers doing Web stuff and compare them
> with the amount of developers doing iOS.

I think that is more because web apps can reach a much larger audience, not
because web apps are easier to develop.

------
puls
Same place we were five years ago: nobody cares what API you're programming to
as long as your apps are good.

No, seriously. The iPhone SDK came out in 2008. Google Maps came out in 2005,
ushering in the modern era of web apps. Mac OS X came out in 2001 and .NET
came out in 2002, representing the major desktop platforms we know today.

The web as a platform is no different than any other platform in that it's
just another platform with its own strengths and weaknesses. It just moves a
whole lot slower than the rest, which is why we're still asking this question
after this many years.

APIs and platforms come and go. Developers always have had and always will
have choices about which ones to pick for developing their apps against. These
choices have some impact on how easy it is to build various types of apps, but
at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is how well your app serves
the needs of those using it.

------
Lerc
I don't think things will change a great deal in 5 years. I would love to be
wrong, but the progress of web standards and browser technology is painfully
slow. The things at the leading edge of development are amazing, but there is
an enormous gap between the first browser supporting something and being able
to assume that most users will have support. There is also a very slow
progression due to the rather annoying notion that everything must have a 'Use
Case'. WebGL comes along and when that got into browsers the need for Typed
Arrays became more evedent, once people started making games and so-forth they
wanted fullscreen options once things were fullscreen people wanted to use
mouse movement rather than mouse pointer position so that FPS games could work
properly. Each advance demonstrates a new deficiency which gets fixed but it
takes another iteration of browser development and release.

I think the change is coming, it's just that the timeframe of 5 years is just
too short.

I started a project a few years ago aiming to do Desktop style things using
HTML+CSS+JS. When I started I was just mucking around and I expected something
better to come along and I'd abandon the project, but I'm still plodding along
(
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7namj7iy16Y](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7namj7iy16Y)
).

Along the way I came across a simple idea as a test of whether or not WebApps
were up to the job of desktop work. Completely replace the functionality
notepad.exe (or OS Specific equivalent level program) with a Webapp. The text
editing part is easily managed, but the test is not for what can be done but
what can't. What about opening all .txt files with it, editing then saving the
result to the desktop, or hacking on startup scripts when nothing else is
available?

Much of the behaviour of WebApps assumes that "It's on the Cloud". That is a
Deal breaker for a lot of people. Especially since Snowden.

We're getting there (or at least somewhere) but we're not doing it terribly
quickly.

------
hillis
A related question might be: where will mobile apps be in 5 years?

Hopefully, the answer is that web standards will evolve to allow HTML+JS to do
things currently only possible in mobile apps. This would mirror the original
transition of desktop apps to web apps, and would have positive implications
for the internet by bringing mobile users back to webpages (though I wouldn't
count on it being done in 5 years).

~~~
jordanpg
And its corollary: what will devices look like in five years? How big will
they be? And how will be people be carrying things that big?

~~~
bithive123
I was shopping for phones today and physically they're all bigger than my
almost five year old iPhone 4. The user interfaces are essentially the same as
on my iPhone or my even older G1.

I did see a curved smartphone for the first time though, so I predict in 5
years phones will be semicircular, about 40% larger than they are today, and
have slightly faster graphics.

~~~
jimlei
Going totally off topic here, but if you're willing to try something different
than iOS then have a look at the Sony Xperia Z3 compact. Small (by todays huge
standards) but packs a good punch in specs :)

------
notlisted
_More voice control_

No I don't like yapping at my phone or PC, but my 6yo kid loves FireTV's voice
search feature and uses google voice search all the time on her iPad, even if
she knows how to spell the words. As precision improves, I see my wife is
using it more too, for searches and dictation.

 _More support for device- /screen-hopping (state-in-the-cloud, continued-
commerce)_

 _Stick-computers_

Affordable devices optimized for streaming screens/desktops/apps hosted in the
cloud. Hardware upgrades only in data centers. Consumers investing instead in
high bandwidth/low latency connections.

 _Web 3.0 == forgetting (ignoring /hiding)_

More apps featuring some form of 'forgetting' (hiding older, unused,
unimportant, noisy data).

More apps assisting in the reverse: new mechanisms to improve recall/precision
of 'forgotten' information by 'priming' our searches with user input (sounds,
locations, colors, images) and/or interactive feedback (hot/cold,
before/after, similar/different, binary search)

~~~
aosmith
This also comes back to hands free for driving, etc. I don't understand why a
tesla d can drive itself but we're still using blinkers and manual actions to
change lanes...

~~~
notlisted
This may be in our near future as well. Did you see the Audi R7 piloted
driving stuff?

Check out
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOYsI1cqUrw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOYsI1cqUrw)
or the long version
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeWriarFlsU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeWriarFlsU)

~~~
aosmith
Yea, so fucking cool. Also worth noting that this was on a closed course with
a known track... That makes everthing a lot easier.

Update: I never saw this video, very cool thanks!

------
olefoo
Software above the level of a single device.

Data is replicated, no item exists only in one place.

Data is shared, shareable and in formats that can be operated on both by the
owner and by the user, the visitor, the renter, the spectator of the items in
question.

Data is encrypted, watermarked, tagged, associated to immutable provenance
histories.

Data is ephemeral, guaranteed to be forgotten, subject to erasure, intended to
be unrecoverable once used.

The network is reliable. The network is unavailable. The network is on the
side of the people. The network will stab you in the back when you least
expect it.

Some programmers will insist on writing javascript to control medical devices.
Some programmers will insist that casual games running in sandboxed
environments be provably correct.

Someone will cobble together an AI and set it to rewriting enterprise java
apps, when interviewed after the disaster the AI will claim that humanity "had
it coming".

A software bug will start a small war. And a EULA clause will end another one.

You will be completely transparent and documented for everyone else to see.
You will not have sufficient permissions to find out anything about anyone
with any power over you.

Most applications will incorporate blockchain technology; but bitcoin will be
the subject of jokes and nostalgic pop culture trivia questions.

It will be the best of times ( for some ), and the worst of times ( for others
).

------
SwellJoe
Desktop and mobile and web will continue to converge. That trend is already
well underway. You would not go wrong by developing for the web, if you want
to build to be relevant five years from now.

About half of the high end and mid end laptops have touch screens now. More
will have them next year. The year after that, it'll be impossible to find a
laptop without a touch screen. Touch will become pervasive, as it is how kids
are comfortable interacting with devices and a lot of current kids will be
adults in five years.

JavaScript will continue to evolve and find its way into new places. While
Firefox OS probably won't make a dent in ChromeOS or iOS market share, the
paradigm of developing mobile/desktop apps using web technologies probably
will expand. It's hard to argue with tech that allows building run-anywhere
applications.

Performance of browsers will continue to approach desktop native performance,
further allowing more applications, including some that are currently
impossible in-browser, like good 3D games. Native games will be among the last
types of app to go browser, but they will come along, as well. The browser VM
is pretty good and getting better. Unity has already shown that a lot of games
can be built in a VM language and environment (and while Mono/C# is currently
faster than JavaScript for some things, and has more native access, that
likely won't be forever, and increasing machine performance will likely close
whatever gap remains).

Assume everything will be more powerful, and things that are just out of reach
today because of memory, or CPU speed, or disk space, will become mundane in a
few years. Maybe not five (Moore's law has slowed, as has every other "law"
about increasing computer performance, but it has not ceased), but in a span
of ten, the difference will be huge. So, when someone says you'll never make a
great 3D game on a table running in the browser, you should assume that really
means, "you won't make a great 3D game on a tablet in a browser _today_ ".

Network speed will be a continuing source of revolutionary change. Fiber is
making its way slowly, but surely, into the home. That kind of speed changes
_everything_ about how you interact, just like broadband brought us YouTube,
GMail, Netflix streaming, streaming every kind of media, etc. fiber will make
it seem entirely normal for every file to be stored in the cloud. We're
nervous about that, as nerds who understand the privacy implications, but
it'll happen, whether we trust it or not. Just like facebook continues to
happen, despite our misgivings about what a privacy nightmare it is. So,
building good encrypted ways to use that incredible network will be an ethical
and profitable way to predict and create the future. (Building un-encrypted
ways to use that network will be evil, but profitable.)

~~~
marcus_holmes
this. Convergence of everything on HTML/JS/CSS and the continued evolution of
those technologies.

and we're overdue for a bandwidth upgrade. The NBN in Australia is slowed by
politics, but not dead and people are beginning to realise how awesome it
actually is. The same I gather for Google Fiber in the USA? Are there any
similar projects in Europe? Elsewhere?

~~~
SupremumLimit
There's a similar project under way in New Zealand, but from what I see, the
uptake has been less than enthusiastic due to lack of online services like
Netflix and persisting traffic caps.

------
fineline
Developers will view REST APIs with the same dismissive disdain reserved today
for SOAP/COM/CORBA. In 5 years time there'll be something much cooler,
probably based on GIT. (GIT will live forever.)

The hot in-demand skill will be writing tight C code for ASM.JS based single
page holographic apps.

We will commute in flying cars and poverty will be history.

Or maybe not - who knows? The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
Nobody has a crystal ball, so it's really up to you.

~~~
cooper12
> The best way to predict the future is to invent it. Nobody has a crystal
> ball, so it's really up to you.

In a sense you're right, it usually takes a few people doing something
different, and if it's better, others will follow suit. However, by following
current trends and looking at how past trends played out, I'm sure we can have
a reasonable idea of what will decline and what will gain favor.

As the OP already noted, we can already notice a move towards web apps. Based
on that one might conclude that we'll all be using web browsers as our OS and
Chrome OS is a perfect example of that. However, we should also notice that
demand for desktop apps didn't suddenly die out as web apps gained popularity.
Desktop apps are still in demand, so the previous conclusion is too hasty. One
conjecture I want to make based on current trend is that developers will start
developing more for mobile platforms (phones and tablets), rather than the
desktop because this is where consumer demand and use is moving to.

In both cases we can use current trends to strengthen or weaken hypotheses.
It's not like the future happens in a crystal ball either, yesterday was
another day that contributed to the future.

------
MarkMc
Here's something a little out of left field, but worth considering: By adding
support for Android apps, Google Chrome has the potential to completely
dominate desktop and mobile development.

Using a simple hack [1] it is already possible to write a single Android app
that runs on (a) Android tablets; (b) Mac computers; (c) Windows computers;
(d) Chrome OS computers; (e) Nexus Player set-top boxes. If Google were to put
its full weight behind this strategy then I think it would quickly become the
default platform for desktop development and thereby destroy the Windows
empire. It might even mean Android apps being developed for what would
normally be the domain of web apps.

[1] [http://lifehacker.com/how-to-run-android-apps-inside-
chrome-...](http://lifehacker.com/how-to-run-android-apps-inside-chrome-on-
any-desktop-op-1637564101)

~~~
rimantas
I don't remember which book it was (maybe "Inmates are running the asylum"),
but there was an example of dancing bear. It is amusing to see that bear is
able to dance at all, but that is by no means are good dance.

Also, how many users are constantly switching between different platforms? If
all I see is the lousy app on my platform of choice I could not care less
about its capability to run on others platforms.

~~~
MarkMc
A similar quote I read was "A horse that can count is a remarkable horse, not
a remarkable mathematician".

You are right that users don't care about having one app running on multiple
platforms. Instead, it is the software developers who would benefit by not
having to write the same app three times.

You seem to be assuming that an Android app running on a non-Android platform
would be 'lousy'. Is that because an app designed for a touch-based tablet
would provide a bad user experience when run on a desktop computer?

------
frozenport
>>As the browser becomes home to more and more software that traditionally
would be desktop only

Sorry I don't see that. All of my desktop apps are still desktop apps. On
Windows I still use Office, VS, Adobe CS, Amira.

I don't see this happening any time soon due to legacy codebase as well as
performance and ease of coding issues. For example, with great difficulty one
could port Photoshop, perhaps using clever off-screen WebGL buffers to do the
heavy computation, but why would you do that?

~~~
kristiandupont
There are plenty of Photoshop-inspired apps that run in the browser already.
None of them are on par with Photoshop obviously, and maybe none will be in 5
years but I don't think it's completely unrealistic.

There are a bunch of obvious advantages to webapps like no installation,
settings are kept no matter which computer you are working from, works
everywhere, etc. They may not outweigh the disadvantages in your view but it
does seem to be the trend in the world.

~~~
mercer
Do you think it's technically possible to get something on the level of
Photoshop with performance that is, at least, acceptable enough, in the
browser? Using asm.js I suppose?

~~~
kristiandupont
I don't see why not. I won't make any guesses about a timeline, but it seems
inevitable to me that it will happen at some point or another. Current
technologies allow you to do quite a bit locally and it might even make sense
to offload heavy expensive operations to a server instead.

~~~
mercer
Ah, sorry, I meant to ask if you think it's _currently_ possible with asm
perhaps, considering that we can already do quite a bit of heavy stuff in js
right now. I have no doubt over time it will be doable, I'm just curious if we
might already be there (purely technically, of course, I can imagine we might
not have the right tools to actually pull it off right now).

------
alkonaut
The dream of "convergence" will reverse starting with windows 10. Web and
mobile will tend towards html5/js, desktop applications such as browsers,
games, ide:s, media production, cad,... will remain heavy C++ (or possibly
Java/.NET) applications. In 5 years we will see no dramatic change in the
landscape. People will realize that even moderately complex applications
should never be browser based and ideas such as browser based word processors
or drawing programs will be remembered as a fad.

Rust will ease the pain of heavy desktop development somewhat. C and C++ needs
to retire, but that won't happen over night. It will take 30 years, not 5.

Web dev will be helped by ES6, or even better: AtScript/TypeScript. JS becomes
the assembly of the web and hopefully no one has to actually write todays JS
directly.

------
variables
I see everything moving to a ChromeOS-like model, with HTML+JS and WebGL for
graphics-heavy things. If not those technologies in particular, something
equivalent.

Essentially the consumer OS will be reduced to being a platform for a browser
(I use "browser" loosely here -- I consider iOS to be an app browser in this
sense). The OS will disappear from visibility.

To make this work you'll need a lot more standardization on APIs and data
formats (because in the future consumers won't touch "files" anymore). I also
think that's coming.

Finally, I see the server/client sides being even more divorced from each
other. Clients will become dumber (single-purpose) and servers will become
smarter (multi-purpose), and both will be much more connected.

------
simmons
I've thought for a while that certain web technologies that Google is
developing or promoting (e.g. WebGL, NaCl/PNaCl, V8, Chrome app store,
Chromebook, etc.) has implied a vision of web apps being just as capable as
desktop apps, perhaps even in categories such as video games that need raw
access to the CPU/GPU. However, progress towards this vision seems to be going
much more slowly than I would have expected, and desktop apps will no doubt
continue to fill certain needs and niches even if a fully realized web
platform is achieved.

Of course, mobile apps (and the consumer electronics revolution that has
allowed many people to consider their phone as a primary computing device) are
also competing in this space.

------
gansai
IMHO, Prediction of software sustenance depends primarily on following points:
a) Current Usage b) Current set of users c) Availability of internet d) Kind
of exposure to apps

Current Usage: Current desktop apps are used by the majority for purposes such
as documents, presentation, image modification, watching videos. If these
purposes are served in fullest and flexible enough to adopt, then web apps
will start dominating.

Current set of users: By numbers, if we go, majority of current set of users
for desktop apps will fall in the category who might not be aware of a browser
turning to be a replacement for all their needs. It will take 5 years for web
apps to expand and become popular enough and reach out to this majority for
extinction of desktop apps.

Availability of internet: Currently desktop apps are predominantly used for
offline purpose, since connection to internet is not required. And places
where there is no connectivity to internet is present, still desktop apps
would survive. But web apps requiring internet connectivity at all times for
each request-response will not be able to reach out to places where there is
lack of internet connection. Web apps will need to provide a offline
environment similar to desktop apps, then web apps would dominate. Otherwise,
if internet connection is provided to everyone like how sun provides light to
every corner of the planet, then web apps would burn down desktop apps.

Kind of exposure to apps: Currently, majority of users tend to sit in a
cubicle and perform work, which is more related to desktop apps. If majority
of users tend to become more mobile, for example, all the personal PC boxes
become tablet/iPads/smartPhones then web apps (mobile apps) would need to
replace desktop apps.

------
dharma1
I think about this a lot, part of my job is designing mobile apps for Ubuntu
touch that scale to tablet, desktop, TV using the same code base (but
different layouts). We are working towards convergence and the native Qt/QML
apps we build for mobile can already run on Ubuntu desktop. I know other
desktop/mobile platforms are also working towards the convergence goal, it
will be interesting how it plays out. I can see Android desktop apps not being
too far away, for instance.

5 years goes past pretty quick, if I think of desktop or web apps 5 years ago
not that much has changed.

I have a lot of faith in browser engines continuing to make a great progress,
and web as a platform has more developers and momentum than anything else so I
expect to see a lot of interesting things coming out as web based SaaS
software.

If I think of some of the more complex desktop apps I use (things like
Photoshop, After Effects, 3DS Max, Logic Pro, Davinci Resolve) I don't think
those will be replaced in 5 years by apps running solely on web technologies.
I think something like Qt offers a better fit for these types of apps if
cross-platform is a goal.

Having said that, apps of that complexity are a small fraction of what people
actually use - as web closes in on the quality of user experience of native
apps I think more and more traditional desktop and mobile apps will be built
with web technologies.

And there will probably be some curve balls in terms of how people interact
with computing devices like IoT devices and Oculus Rift/Magic Leap type
wearables with completely new interfaces.

------
rimantas
Well, reading comments was interesting. A lot of "we need a faster horse"
thinking, and, sadly, a lot of "we don't care about the users" thinking too.
By "we don't care about the users" I mean thinking purely from the developers
perspective, not from "make it harder for the database easier for the user"
POV. And you can substitute database with developer. For those hoping for the
rise of web, I'd suggest a few points to consider. The most important: what
advantages does this kind of approach have compared to native — and to think
about that form user's perspective. Run the same app everywhere? Ok, but
typical user does not switch platforms that often on the same kind of device.
Switching desktop/mobile is another matter, but there is an alternative to
running the same everywhere, e.g. Apple's continuity.

Ease of updates: just go to the same URL and you get the version. Well ok,
what if I don't like the new version? How do I keep the old one? And how big
advantage is that (again, from users perspective) compared to app stores and
auto updating, that is already there?

I am afraid that in five years from now we will see the same we saw five years
ago: throwing in half-baked features into browsers to keep them "on-par" with
native APIs and endless search for THE framework. The trouble is, that while
native have those frameworks at foundation, web tech basically requires them
to be bolted on…

------
aikah
In 5 years you'll have to know C++ and emscripten as it will be the main way
to develop frontend applications.

~~~
imaginenore
Said nobody ever.

------
sferoze
What is happening now and will be even more prominent in the next 5 years is
that people will be using web technologies like html, css and javascript to
write one codebase that is transferable to any platform (browser or native).

Nowadays with node.js you can convert your web-app to an android, ios, mac,
windows app, etc. You have access to system hardware, and from the users
perspective it is no different than any native app, even though it is built
with web technologies.

It is quite amazing, html, css and javascript standards are becoming a
universal platform for developers. We are writing apps for html5 architecture
vs specific processor architectures. The browser is a compile target and
javascript is becoming like bytecode.

I see a future in which we develop multiple new ways of coding apps using web
technologies, completely different than the way we do now. We will have
various languages, methodologies to do it with but in the end it will all
compile down to code a browser rendering engines can understand. And we can
use this rendering engine to run the app outside the browser.

So basically I am saying we can code apps in various ways that compile down to
web-technolgies and use this single codebase to port to any platform. And the
user experience will be indistinguishable from native apps coded directly for
the platform.

------
pjmlp
Apps would have won as the browser still try to catch up with the richness of
desktop environemnts.

Everyone will be back to native application development, with REST/socket
protocols to communicate with micro services in distributed servers.

HTML will be used just as multimedia document format as a means of providing
an interactive reading experience, while a group would be pushing for HTML 6
as the real thing.

~~~
rimantas
Oh, how I'd like to see sanity going back to the web and identity crisis to be
over. I am sick of that constant search for the holly grail of silver bullet
framework. Guys, how about admitting that html, css and js are not really the
best tools for the job of building apps?

------
ivyirwin
It's an exciting future for web apps – I'm more interested to know who's going
to take us there. It will require a significant collaboration between the
browser makers and the operating systems – and while sometimes they are the
same people, the major players have a conflict of interest.

When the iPhone launched without an app store or sdk, apple pushed for web
apps. Yet [this
article]([https://developer.apple.com/library/safari/referencelibrary/...](https://developer.apple.com/library/safari/referencelibrary/gettingstarted/gs_iphonewebapp/_index.html))
hasn't been updated in over five years. And Apple has very little incentive to
do so now. The Chrome web app store is a promising concept, but I'm not
convinced it has great traction.

My fear is that as web apps gain access to native app features,
standardization will go out the window as each operating system (or maybe
browser at that point) competes for market share.

------
benologist
I hope we trend towards open, public APIs that make which interface you build
or use just a personal choice that others don't have to live by.

One example is HN, they've recently released an API and when that is full-
featured apps and alternative sites built on the API will be able to
completely replace the HN website for anyone who want them.

~~~
variables
It's a platonic ideal, but the internet runs on ads, and that ruins
everything.

An interface you don't control is an interface you can't advertise on. The
vast majority of players will never open their data in a manner that hurts
their ability to sell sponsorship, and this problem is entrenched in the
fabric of the internet.

HN is a very, very rare exception in that it never was and never will be
dependent on ad funding.

~~~
cooper12
What about licensing their API? Could that be a viable business model for both
the website and the app creators?

------
ericb
Javascript will no longer be the only viable language for working with the DOM
in a browser. With technologies like asm, I think it is only a matter of time
until we are freed of directly or semi-directly (coffeescript) coding
Javascript in every project. If it isn't asm, I think this will happen one way
or the other.

------
jordanpg
I like the idea of a gradual merger of the abstractions we now call browser
and operating system. I think that I first read about this idea years ago when
ASUS floated the idea of having a ChromeOS-like thing in firmware, but I can't
find the link.

The important point is that, like microwaves, for 99% of people (even devs),
it will make no difference at all who makes the software running in the
background. Sort of like BIOS. It will all look and act exactly the same:
basically a browser. I already see this convergence happening in mobile, web,
and desktop. There will be some other contentious thing to fill the HN
threads, some new interface abstraction or maybe VR. Whatever abstracts the
most away while working on the most number of devices seamlessly will become
increasingly more interesting.

------
bobajeff
Well, for Web Development, I hope it will have mature support for languages
and APIs compiling to JavaScript. Emscripten is a nice demonstration on how
given the right tools the web can be a great target for porting to. Today it's
missing some support for C++ features and libraries but one day maybe we'll
not only have the tools with full POSIX/UNIX APIs but Windows, Java and
Android APIs too.

As for Web practices I hope everyone embraces responsive design as being
served a separate ghetto version of a site with less features is lousy. I hope
everyone stops making a app for their site as that's usually just as bad as
the ghetto mobile site if not worse because perhaps the developers didn't have
experience in that platform.

------
hliyan
Perhaps a move away from apps to widgets -- users will continue to be
impatient with anything other than the fastest way of getting things done on a
device. So rather than launching an app, reaching a home screen and then
selecting an option from there, apps will provide direct links to specific
actions that can be invoked from the OS. For (a simple minded) example: you
don't launch the Twitter app to tweet, you invoke the 'tweet' action.

And possibly, the concept of API's might hit desktop environments and we might
be able to string together such actions much like we do with UNIX piping,
allowing for more automation (e.g. 'append this text to document x with time
stamp', where the doc is rich text document)

~~~
xerophyte12932
Somehow I don't see Apple doing that

------
ntakasaki
We will move to a cloud based model and all your data will be owned by the
cloud providers. Google, Apple and Microsoft are already ensuring this.

From a Google filing in court about Gmail privacy:

>Indeed, “a person has no legitimate expectation of privacy in information he
voluntarily turns over to third parties.” Smith v. Maryland, 442 U.S. 735,
743-44 (1979).

> it's "inconceivable" that someone using a Gmail account would not be aware
> that the information in their email would be known to Google.

Also referenced the scroogled ad campaign to support that users know and
accept this behavior.

/facepalm

~~~
timothya
The fact that your data is stored on a cloud provider doesn't mean that that
provider _owns_ your data. For example, from Google's TOS:

"You retain ownership of any intellectual property rights that you hold in
that content. In short, what belongs to you stays yours." [0].

The context of the quote from the court documents you referenced [1] is that
Gmail inevitably needs to be able to process your emails in order to send them
(and potentially filter out the spam). It is not, as you seem imply, about
violating your privacy.

[0]:
[http://www.google.com/intl/en/policies/terms/](http://www.google.com/intl/en/policies/terms/)

[1]: [https://www.scribd.com/doc/160041493/Google-
Motion-061313](https://www.scribd.com/doc/160041493/Google-Motion-061313)

------
kamikazi
[http://blog.intercom.io/the-end-of-apps-as-we-know-
them/](http://blog.intercom.io/the-end-of-apps-as-we-know-them/) \- This
article about where mobile apps are going resonated with me. It says we're
eventually moving away from a bank of homescreen icons to notification centers
and all actions related to certain context are present in the notification
itself (like, reply). Moreover certain products/services might not need to
have their own app - piggybacking as child cards of others app notifications.
Very fascinating read.

------
jacquesm
Shared interfaces used by browsers and apps alike. JSON will rule the
interface, JS will continue to dominate the client side but you'll never see
it because it's something generated by your server side framework if the
client is not 'native'. Browsers will be the step-up to downloading an APP or
a plug-in to the browser.

Pendulum comes fully around, it's already happening in some arenas.

Would you like to download 'facebook' to enhance your browsing experience?

------
artsrc
The thing you watch in the living room will increasingly be connected to the
internet, and be able to function interactively.

In the kitchen appliances will increasingly be connected to the internet and
be able to download recipes.

The ingredients list your blender displays for Pesto will be transmitted in
HTML. But I will write it in markdown.

Your crispy skinned pork roasting application will execute as JavaScript. I
wrote it in JavaScript, I will think about writing it in Clojure next time.

------
OedipusRex
I see web apps taking an even large slice of previously desktop apps. I
believe Operating Systems will no longer matter as much (this is happening
now) as they did in previous years. I would really like to see something other
than JavaScript (etc) on the web.

Other than that I see the mobile app market exploding. More people will (if
not already) be on mobile platforms than the standard computer. If there was a
seamless way to merge mobile and web apps the possibilities are endless.

~~~
rimantas
I am curious, which slice of previously desktop apps is already taken by web
apps?

~~~
OedipusRex
Of course not completely taken but to name a few: email, word processor,
calendar, music player, chat clients, and many more.

------
andywood
We don't have the same pace of innovation happening on the big screen that we
did in previous decades.

Desktop apps are the same except for upgrades to their UIs and engines. Web
apps are the same except for an explosion of .js libraries - some production
worthy - and a shift in popularity away from php.

Most of the innovation is on smartphones. Those in turn are most like the
desktop, but with more interesting I/O - at least for a developer.

------
skierscott
I believe that web apps especially will see an Internet of Things (IoT)
takeoff. Things like a web service to remotely control your house (lights heat
TV etc) are prime and ready and wouldn't require that much work.

That may seem obvious for web apps; there's a wiki page for IoT. For desktop
apps, I predict interfacing with mobile more. Making it seamless to go from
one device to the next. We're almost there but not quite.

~~~
jschwartzi
I think it will be less of a matter of you remote controlling your house, and
more a matter of your house learning your habits. If remote control continues
to be a matter of you reaching over to your phone, unlocking it and stating a
request, people will continue to just get out of bed to turn the lights on.

If, however, the house knows that you set an alarm last night for 4:00, and it
is designed to slowly bring the lights up to simulate a natural sunrise, then
you'll wake up with the lights on already, which is far more useful. If it
offers to start the shower and bring up the lights in the bathroom after it
confirms you're out of bed, even better.

I think we overestimate the amount of control people really want over the
mechanical and electrical systems in their living space. Most people just want
the thermostat to keep them comfortable, whatever that means.

------
eridal
I see a reborn over the LAN and even PAN with apps talking between them, on a
private network, without requiring internet access to provide services. IoT
would certainly be a major driver for this, but innovation in network services
and protocols is stagnated. The whole point is to bring services to the
connected clients, and a bunch of those services does not require internet
access, but better machinery.

------
hayksaakian
Chrome is going in this direction:

Packaged apps that have more and more hardware permission.

I think JS will be a compile target.

------
__d
Multiple concurrent screens (phone, tablet, desktop, living room) as viewports
onto your cloud-resident stuff.

The cloud will move away from being largely passive storage, into hosting
active applications/agents.

The underlying OS API will lose its grip, but the cloud framework(s) will take
over the role of application platform(s).

------
kakakiki
If rest of the world follows what apple is doing with Continuity, I would say
that is where we are going.

------
vonklaus
Most people think there is going to be a move to the cloud ITT. This requires
ubiquitous internet. TimeWarner merger is going to ensure the opposite, people
will have latent internet connections and will not have OS in the cloud.
15mbps is too weak for that to be a true option.

------
FigBug
Desktop apps are basically stuck where they were 10 years ago, and I don't see
them advancing much in the next 10. Office, Photoshop, etc will still be
getting upgrades every couple years. All the investment will be in what the
new hot platform is.

------
vayarajesh
I think in the next 5 years the focus will be shifted from desktop and web
apps to virtual reality (Oculus) and smart hardware apps (smart homes,
wearables etc).

Even for web apps it is going to be more mobile oriented than actual standard
web view

------
fsloth
Since running a complex desktop app in the server and serving it to browser
based clients is now a production ready solution I imagine this approach will
become a bit more popular. (ref. Adobe's creative cloud)

------
Derbasti
I hope that we'll see web-development-like desktop platforms. There are
certain classes of apps that are really simple to develop as a web site, but
comparatively hard as a native app. I would like to see something like node-
webkit with a broader range of native controls. On the opposite side, I would
like to see desktop toolkits to include more web-server-like functionality to
make desktop-web-dev easier.

in general, very much like the idea of Firefox OS, where you basically develop
a web-app, and publish it as a native app. I would like to see this on the
desktop as well.

Oh yeah, and a truly first class alternative to Javascript in the browser is
_really_ overdue.

------
threeseed
I actually see more and more web software becoming lazy.

i.e. long, single page applications where content is mostly displayed either
in cards or in a feed format.

------
Geee
There won't be a difference going enough in the future, but 5 years isn't
enough. Native apps will get all the benefits of browser apps and vice versa.

------
merfe07
Internet surfing is my hubby. Symbianize.com is my favorite site that gives
you access to many softwares that traditionally would be desktop only.

------
shmerl
I see them developing side by side. Native applications are here to stay and
the browser will become more and more of a versatile VM.

------
jp
Desktop software is desktop because of mouse. Touch software replaces mouse
with hand gestures on screen or panel. But web apps still trying to be 1990
desktop replacement. Soon biometric feedback makes this painfully obvious.
Security and compatibility is key. But Apple and Microsoft refuse to agree on
anything except basic web standards. Third player needed for anything to
change.

------
yunnnyunnn
I can't see them anymore. Five years is a long time.

------
mahdavi
I hope we ditch JS from web standards.

------
theflubba
Desktop software dead. Software exists only on the internet. Browsers evolve
into application runners.

Thin fucking clients.

~~~
tmuir
Commercial CNC machines and other motion control applications will _never_ run
off of web-based software. Not to say it isn't possible under the right
conditions, but those conditions can't be ensured. There will always exist
applications that require low response times that the internet cannot
dependably deliver.

High end CAD and CAM software also falls under this umbrella. There is simply
too much computation/rendering occuring.

