
Ask HN: Is it too late to get into Bitcoin or cryptocurrency in general? - eibrahim
I missed the bus.  I recall playing with bitcoins like 10 years ago and didn&#x27;t see the potential and thought it to be very risky.<p>Is it too late to invest in bitcoin now?  How would you even get started?<p>PS: I am not talking about mining because the consensus is that it is too late for that - at least for an individual with a laptop.
======
cujic9
Buying Bitcoin is not investing, it is speculation. This may sound pedantic,
but its not. It really is a gamble to hold Bitcoin, you are betting on
specific uncertain events happening in the future. If they do not happen, then
Bitcoin will be worth $0.

You can invest in equipment to _mine_ Bitcoin, but if you hold the Bitcoin
that you mine, then you are speculating.

To answer (or dodge) your original question: nobody knows for sure if its too
late.

As of right now, the market is betting that it is better to own a Bitcoin than
to hold $5,663 in cash. (The current price is $5,664.)

Coinbase is your best bet for getting started in the US.

~~~
avar

        > Buying Bitcoin is not investing,
        > it is speculation. This may sound
        > pedantic, but its not.
    

There's no such generally agreed-upon definition of what constitutes
speculation and investing[1][2][3]. The most common use of the word
"speculation" just seems to mean "high-risk investment", but what constitutes
"high-risk" is a matter of taste.

    
    
        > nobody knows for sure if its too late.
    

If it ends up replacing all money then the value of a single bitcoin will be
around $200B, but I'd happily characterize that claim as speculation :)

1\.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speculation#Speculation_and_in...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speculation#Speculation_and_investment)

2\.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment#Related_terms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment#Related_terms)

3\.
[http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/speculation.asp](http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/speculation.asp)

4\.
[https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=8113.0](https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=8113.0)

~~~
arikr
> If it ends up replacing all money then the value of a single bitcoin will be
> around $200B, but I'd happily characterize that claim as speculation :)

Assuming "the total amount of money in the world is $84 trillion"
[http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-compared-to-all-of-
th...](http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-compared-to-all-of-the-worlds-
money-2017-6)

BTC currently has a market cap of ~$94b

$84t / $94b = ~894

894 * $5625 (current BTC price) = ~$5m/BTC

Am I missing something? I may be. But from my calcs seems like your $200b
estimate is off by a factor of 40,000x.

~~~
lee101
That sounds like a good guestimate :) it would be interesting to take into
account how diluted normal money vs bitcoin will be which could push the
numbers to something like 250t (5% inflation over 20 years) vs idk how much
extra bitcoin will be created, i'm guessing not much

------
stocktech
It really depends on how much time you have to invest. On the low effort end,
you can put some money into coinbase and speculate that way. On the high
effort side, you could mine the "up and coming" alt coins on a box.

Personally, I'm telling a lot of my friends to put a few hundred bucks (money
they won't mind losing) into coinbase and evaluate afterwards. At the least,
it's an interesting tech/story so having some money involved makes it fun.
There's also speculative upside, though idk if we're past the "easy money"
stage or not.

I still think "investing" in bitcoin is a gamble and I'm not convinced it
should have a place in your portfolio. Not only because of the speculative
risk, but the added risks of forks, hacks, etc. I'm really concerned about how
liquid the market is and should an event happen, the little liquidity that
exists will dry up.

~~~
panarky
> I still think "investing" in bitcoin is a gamble

Maybe there's more to be gained than an increasing exchange rate.

I've gained a lot of knowledge by running Bitcoin Core on testnet, grabbing
some free test coins from a faucet, and learning how to use the API.

There's a lot to learn! Not only sending and receiving, but also importing and
exporting private keys, signing and verifying messages, M-of-N multisig
transactions, paper wallets, brainwallets, etc.

And there are now several implementations of the Lightning Network for instant
and very low cost transactions which make micropayments feasible that you can
learn using the testnet.

Then once you understand the fundamentals of Bitcoin, you might do the same
for Ethereum and its smart contracts, solidity, and ERC20 tokens.

------
dabockster
It is never too late to throw in some money and play around with Bitcoin. Just
be aware of a few things:

1) Assume whatever you invest is lost instantly. Don't assume you'll get
profits at all.

2) Start with small amounts ($100-150) and ramp up once you feel more
comfortable.

3) Most alts are either "pump and dump" operations or scams. Do your research
before transferring out of Bitcoin into an altcoin.

4) Take any hype about Bitcoin with a grain of salt. Just like any other
trendy topic, there is a lot of misinformation out there.

5) Do your research.

6) Do your research.

7) Did I emphasize research enough? JUST DO IT.

8) Don't bother mining. The mining has been controlled by China for years.

And finally, research the underlying tech (blockchain). That's the real reason
why Bitcoin is becoming so popular.

~~~
31reasons
>> The mining has been controlled by China for years.

Can you elaborate on that? Afaik the very advantage of Bitcoin is that no
single entity can control it.

~~~
hypervis0r
China has around 70% [1] of the Bitcoin mining power, and the top three miners
hold around 50%, which is so massive, it makes everyone else seem negligible,
like an experimental error.

[1]:
[https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/mining/china/](https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/mining/china/)

------
0x4f3759df
If you want to buy bitcoin, open a coinbase account and buy some, then
transfer to a hardware wallet. I think they will appreciate because I believe
China is coming back online and hedge fund money is coming [1]. Also 20k users
join Coinbase every single day. Imagine if 20k users joined the stock market
every single day and there was only 1 good stock? What do you think will
happen?

[https://news.bitcoin.com/hedge-funds-investing-in-
cryptocurr...](https://news.bitcoin.com/hedge-funds-investing-in-
cryptocurrencies-exploding-62-in-pipeline/)

------
noddy1
Bitcoin market cap is around 92 billion, 2/3rds of IBM.

If bitcoin becomes the global reserve currency, that will probably go to 10
trillion, a ~100x gain.

If you think bitcoin has >1% chance of becoming the global reserve currency,
you should buy at the current price.

~~~
Top19
Interesting reply / good point with your math, but the United States will go
to war before ever letting that happen.

The people who run the government now I know aren’t the best, and they are
hemmed in by systems that have accidentally been created, probable elitism,
and many other sins.

That being said I would much rather them, the United Nations, any socialist
candidate, or any populist candidate govern before letting some new global
financial elite take the helm for no reason at all other than a speculative
bubble.

------
theossuary
I would have said it was too late when it was ~350 a coin, then it went up to
~4k. I then would have said it was definitely too late at ~4k, right now it's
at ~5.5k. That said you really have to look at the graphs and decide for
yourself; and remember all of these coins are essentially zero-sum, a lot of
suckers have to lose money for you to make it (or vice-versa).

~~~
deweller
I disagree that Bitcoin is a zero-sum game.

If the network continues to grow it could enable things that provide value
that didn't exist before. When that happens, worldwide productivity increases
and wealth is created. Therefore everyone wins.

------
smt88
> _didn 't see the potential and thought it to be very risky._

This hasn't changed.

> _Is it too late to invest in bitcoin now?_

It's too early to "invest" in Bitcoin, but you can certainly gamble in it.

~~~
bitxbitxbitcoin
Investing is not the right word - gambling isn't either, but it is closer :).

------
mbrock
Hacker News isn't a trading forum or a place for investment advice!

But here's a hacker-friendly strategy for investing in cryptocurrency:

Buy some tokens. Then spend your time, energy, and genius on significantly
improving the protocol and ecosystem for those tokens, and then enjoy your
return on investment!

------
DougN7
Because there is an upper limit (from my understanding) of the number of
Bitcoins that can be created, their worth will still multiply by 10 or 100 or
more, IF they exist and grow as planned. Splits only increase that value if
you own pre-split.

------
Casseres
It's still pretty early in the adoption phase. I think cryptocurrencies still
have room to appreciate in value.

As for Bitcoin, it will still probably increase in value, but I believe Monero
will increase more.

A lot of people have the misconception that Bitcoin is anonymous, but it's a
public ledger. It's not fungible - a key requirement for any currency. Monero
is fungible and is what people thought Bitcoin was originally. If you want
financial privacy, use Monero.

Bitcoin will most likely always be considered "crypto gold" though, so if you
decide for yourself that it's not too late and want something safer, you
probably will do okay by just buying Bitcoin.

~~~
ldiracdelta
Bitcoin could be tulips[1] instead of gold. Low transaction throughput and the
insane lack of privacy for transactions via the public ledger. I concur more
with your Monero position.

[1]:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania)

------
wakeywakeywakey
Depends what "the bus" means to you. If you mean 10000%+ gains, BTC may not
see that sort of growth again. However other coins/tokens may, and there is
plenty of volatility to exploit if you're into high-risk daytrading.

That being said, the real, long-term value of crypto is in practical
commercial applications. Each coin may surface a "killer app" in time, and you
could be the one to build it. Crypto is still nowhere near mainstream in this
area. There is also a mountain of legal and logistical groundwork to work
through which will take decades.

Remember: investing your money is not the only way to get in; you also invest
your time.

------
cwkoss
Because the price just went up, may be wise to dollar cost average at this
level: ex. buy $XX worth once a week. I think Coinbase has an option to set up
automatic weekly buys. Less reward if it spikes next week, less risk if it
crashes next week. Removes emotion from trading decisions. Something to
consider, be sure to factor in fees.

I think the buy-side support has been surprisingly strong after this recent
push, so I think this rally still has a bit of legs, but Bitcoin is always
hard to predict.

------
thrill
Predictions are hard, especially about the future. Cryptocurrency is still
quite risky. I made a decent living for several years as a private investor.
It gets old and on average is hard work, unless you're lucky enough to get a
few solid serious wins in there, which makes anyone look good. Now I have what
capital I'm willing to risk engaged with "a trading pool that uses artificial
intelligence" to trade cryptocurrency. There's still risk of course but it
fits my desire to avoid feeling a need to be knee-deep in my investments.

------
samuel88
I'm new to Bitcoins. Just trying to choose a good hardware wallet to store the
coins. All the wallets have a positive and negative aspect. Overall, I used
them all and tested and practiced. There is no a single perfect solution for
everyone. This review may be useful -
[http://www.beautifullife.info/industrial-design/best-
bitcoin...](http://www.beautifullife.info/industrial-design/best-bitcoin-
hardware-wallet-reviews/) .

------
DennisP
You can still mine GPU-based cryptocurrencies. Two examples are ZCash and
Ethereum.

It'd definitely not too late to get into smart contract development on
Ethereum. It's what I do for a living, and demand is _high_.

If you want to just buy some coins, it's pretty easy to set up an account on a
solid, regulated exchange. In the U.S., Coinbase, Gemini, and Kraken will let
you fund an account directly from your bank.

~~~
acconrad
How did you get into contract ethereum development? What does that require in
terms of skill set (C/C++)? Where are you finding these jobs that claim high
demand? I'm thinking about breaking into contract development and working on
block chain tech, and this seems like a good opportunity.

~~~
DennisP
You need a reasonable understanding of how Ethereum works (and blockchains in
general). The primary language is Solidity, which is pretty simple but has
some security gotchas to be aware of. Javascript is most important for writing
UI. There's also an API for Go, so that can be pretty helpful. The main
clients are written in Go, Rust, C++, and Javascript.

Write some open source code, blog about it, participate in the community, and
if you impress people they'll come to you. Resources:

ethereum.org

[https://github.com/ethereum/wiki/wiki/White-
Paper](https://github.com/ethereum/wiki/wiki/White-Paper)

[https://solidity.readthedocs.io/en/develop/solidity-in-
depth...](https://solidity.readthedocs.io/en/develop/solidity-in-depth.html)

[https://github.com/ethereum/wiki/wiki/JavaScript-
API](https://github.com/ethereum/wiki/wiki/JavaScript-API)

r/ethereum

r/ethdev

[https://gitter.im/ethereum/home](https://gitter.im/ethereum/home)

ethereum.stackexchange.com

truffleframework.com

[https://github.com/ConsenSys/smart-contract-best-
practices](https://github.com/ConsenSys/smart-contract-best-practices)

[https://medium.com/@weka/announcing-the-winners-of-the-
first...](https://medium.com/@weka/announcing-the-winners-of-the-first-
underhanded-solidity-coding-contest-282563a87079)

~~~
acconrad
An impressive and thoughtful response, thank you Dennis for taking the time to
inform me!

~~~
DennisP
Good luck, and if you go for it, welcome aboard!

------
pascalxus
Fred Wilson from AVC is pretty bullish on bitcoin. His advice was to have 10%
of networth in bitcoin! but, I don't know if he meant you should buy in at the
price it's at right now.

But, unlike the stock market, or the housing market, there doesn't seem to be
any PE ratio we can keep an eye on to determine whether or not bitcoin is over
valued or under valued, so it really feels like a crapshoot.

------
sevensor
Too late? Surely it's too early, with the vast amount of hype circulating
around cryptocurrencies. Wait out the inevitable crash, unless your interest
is techonlogical rather than pecuniary. Granted, my advice is like telling you
not to invest in internet stocks in the late '90s, but you can't tell whether
this is 1995 or 2000.

------
feelix
Bitcoin seems to be following Metcalfe's law[1] down to a tee. So, based on
that, it seems it's not too late.

[https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@eric-blair/does-metcalfe-s-
law-...](https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@eric-blair/does-metcalfe-s-law-aptly-
describe-bitcoin-s-value)

------
runjake
Too late for what?

To get rich? That's a lottery situation. Good luck, be in the right place at
the right time.

To use? No, of course it's not too late.

~~~
eibrahim
to invest and get a decent ROI (vs other investment like stocks, real estate,
etc...)

~~~
where_do_i_live
If someone had an knowable answer to that, wouldn't they invest all their
money into it already?

Its a speculative investment, not 1% savings account. The original question is
a bit naive.

------
dom0
It is positively the correct time to shovel some money into the trash fire ^W
^W ^W ^W ^W ^W ^W invest wisely, in BTC.

------
rramdin
If you have to ask this question, you're not ready for this kind of risky
investing.

~~~
technofire
I think this attitude is silly. Finance academics and banking executives (i.e.
Jamie Dimon) who have spent their entire lives studying finance and working in
banking are still grappling with this question. Are they also not ready?

------
barnabee
It's not too late.

It is risky, but then no good investments aren't. The trick is to diversify.

------
slantaclaus
Just my two cents, but I think Monero has a fair amount of potential

------
mellowdream
If anybody on HN knew, they wouldn't be on HN.

~~~
bitxbitxbitcoin
I feel like I've read a lot of anecdotal stories of successful Bitcoin
"investors" here on HN. So they're still here!

