
Ask HN: Why doesn't somebody buy every combination of the Powerball? - hanniabu
With how big the powerball is, it now seems feasible for somebody to buy every combination and still come out in the green.
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ASpring
Here's the math for those wondering:

Odds to win = 1/292,201,338

Cost of Ticket = $2

Buying All Combinations = $584,402,676

Current Prize ~ $1,300,000,000

Takehome Annuity(1) ~ $900,000,000

Lump Sum Takehome ~ $550,000,000

You'll likely end up splitting the prize at this point with at least one other
ticket which will put you in the red by over a hundred million. This is the
primary deterrent.

1: After 30 years of payments. 900m is lower end after state taxes.
[https://www.usamega.com/powerball-
jackpot.asp](https://www.usamega.com/powerball-jackpot.asp)

~~~
joezydeco
You would also need to buy about 900 tickets per second from the moment the
first drawing is over until the second one begins, hoping all the time for a
rollover.

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bensandcastle
This strategy makes sense when the odds of winning are known, and the jackpot
is not shared.

The powerball jackpot is shared so you would need to factor in the likely
number of people you would share with which would be complicated to figure
out.

There are cases in gambling where the jackpot is not shared, for example poker
machines.

The odds of winning remain fixed, yet the jackpot slowly increases, moreso
when there are many machines linked to build the same prize.

At a certain level of jackpot the math works out and it's a sound strategy to
pour money into the machines.

See: break even point
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_jackpot](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_jackpot)

Here's a person who's written about dedicating their life to this approach:
[http://www.amazon.com/Million-Dollar-Slots-Peter-
Liston/dp/0...](http://www.amazon.com/Million-Dollar-Slots-Peter-
Liston/dp/0987272969)

If you were going to invest in lotto with shared jackpots I've heard anecdotes
that choosing numbers 32 and higher is a better way to go because people tend
to pick birthdays. I think looking at past drawing results and whether there
was a winner or not you could analyse if numbers are picked
disproprotionately, but I'm not sure what sample size would be needed to
generate meaningful results.

All that said, I can think of many things I'd rather develop expertise in than
reverse engineering the payout odds of poker / progressive jackpot machines.

------
rabidonrails
Asked and answered a couple times, but here are the highlights.

1\. Possible splits: should you win and have to split the pot you would
probably lose a large amount of money.

2\. Timing: You can't purchase the tickets fast enough. Say, for example, you
wanted to purchase all of the tickets. Even if you purchased a new ticket each
second, with only 86,400 seconds in a day and 292.2M outcomes, it would take
you something like 5.5 years to fill out all of the tickets.

------
logiclabs
A group attempted this in a state lottery which I saw in a documentary about
it a long time ago. There weren't even close to the numbers or potential gain
involved in the Powerball and needed a fair bit of luck rather than all the
numbers, but still they profited big. Back then I think the problem was that
they couldn't print and submit the paper lottery tickets quick enough to get
all the numbers, so ended up just chancing it. I guess using the internet
these days should make it quicker, but still, in the UK last weekend the
online demand for a £50m prize lottery managed to shut down the online site.

Some discussion of the state lottery win on reddit:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/comments/1t8ool/til_i...](https://www.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/comments/1t8ool/til_in_1992_an_australian_gambling_syndicate/)

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eecks
What if another random person wins it so the jackpot is shared?

------
strangecasts
As a historical aside, the French mathematician Charles Marie de La Condamine
(with the help of some guy named Voltaire) did almost exactly that in the
1720s:

[http://www.damninteresting.com/the-enlightenment-guide-to-
wi...](http://www.damninteresting.com/the-enlightenment-guide-to-winning-the-
lottery/)

------
jeffmould
First and foremost, it would take more money to buy all the combinations than
the payout. Also, while $1.3 Billion sounds like a great big number, when you
consider the taxes (even with a good tax attorney you are going to pay a
substantial tax on that number), and whether you would take that as a lump sum
or annuity, other factors come into play.

~~~
toomuchtodo
How much in losses can you write off from the losing tickets against your
winnings?

~~~
loumf
At that level, probably none:

[http://www.fitz-cpa.com/gambling.aspx#GM7](http://www.fitz-
cpa.com/gambling.aspx#GM7)

Once you are in AMT territory, you lose the deduction.

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AznHisoka
Because there's a limit to how much most people can spend.

It's why the martingale strategy sounds ok in theory but fails in practice.
You don't have infinite money (plus most tables have max bids too)

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tmaly
you would have better chances starting your own startup

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melling
And break even if no one else wins?

