

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit - abalashov
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency

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ivankirigin
There is no such thing as running out of oil. There is only oil becoming more
expensive to extract than alternatives.

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RyanMcGreal
Peak oil != running out of oil.

Peak oil means that the _rate of production_ is set to go into permanent
decline and the price of oil is set to become extremely volatile, as a
cyclical wave of super-spikes to kill off demand lead to sharp recessions and
a downward grind in material standards of living.

We just saw the first iteration of this trend in 2008 and 2009.

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ivankirigin
I know, and agree. I'm saying the title is close to link bait.

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abalashov
The title was extracted straight from the phraseology of the article - not a
deliberate formulation.

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TNO
Strange, that's not what I heard:

[http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090128183930.ht...](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090128183930.htm)
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/31884-can-royal-dutch-
shell-...](http://seekingalpha.com/article/31884-can-royal-dutch-shell-s-
shale-extraction-technique-end-peak-oil-paranoia)

~~~
fnid
I don't believe anything in these articles says that peak oil isn't a reality,
they only push back the peak. The only thing that could refute peak oil is
confirmation of abiotic oil production.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin>

Off topic: _[E]ngineers at Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) have applied for a patent
on a new method of extracting shale oil cheaply and cleanly._

How is this different from granting a patent on software that extracts data
cheaply and cleanly?

~~~
camccann
In practice "peak oil" is more a political catchphrase than anything else.
Objectively, the concept is both true and obvious. Yes, finite resources are
finite and if you keep using them they'll eventually run out. Not exactly
rocket science, there. In practice, it mostly gets discussed because people
like to worry over impending catastrophes, especially ones that can be blamed
on people they don't like. It's really just not that big of a concern.

Oh, and abiogenic petroleum is pretty much crackpottery, so that doesn't help.

~~~
RyanMcGreal
> if you keep using them they'll eventually run out

Peak oil isn't about oil running out. It's about the rate of production going
into decline and the economy struggling to handle extreme oil price
volatility.

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mhartl
These people need to stop talking and start buying oil futures.

~~~
bioweek
Is there any way for the common man to do this? It seems like a pretty sure
bet that oil will be more expensive in five years.

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mhartl
There are ETFs (exchange-traded funds) called OIL and USO which track the
price of oil and oil futures. You can buy them through, e.g., Scottrade, the
same way you buy stocks. Or you could just buy stock directly in oil
companies, which would certainly expose you to the future price of oil.

It may seem like a sure bet that oil prices will rise, but the return would
have to compensate you for (a) the opportunity cost and (b) the risk that
you're wrong. Peak oil alarmists imply that the current prices don't
accurately reflect future scarcity, so they should be able to make a killing
in the oil markets and encourage conservation (by making current oil more
expensive) at the same time. But if they don't have the confidence to put
their money where their mouth is, they really should have the good sense to
shut up already.

N.B. I do know some peak oil types who are long oil, and I respect them
greatly for it.

~~~
tome
I think part of the problem is that at the more extreme end they think that
the world economy is going to collapse, so that if they're right, there will
be no way those contracts will be honoured.

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tome
Interesting timing with Copenhagen looming. I'm usually the first person to
talk about the potential risks of the oil crisis, but I think think this
article is geared more towards the climate change talks than a serious
analysis of the oil issues.

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tptacek
... according to The Guardian's anonymous source. Flagged.

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ryandvm
Nice graph. Everything going swimmingly - until tomorrow, when the sky falls.

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camccann
If you're talking about the dark blue part of the graph, that represents
currently _active_ oil fields only, so of course it's going to drop starting
the day after the graph was made because it's defined to exclude new
production capacity!

The light blue apparently represents the expected production from known but
untapped fields, so the dark and light blue combined represent current known
oil reserves, and don't show any spurious drops.

