
The Siege of Carrie Lam - raleighm
https://idlewords.com/2019/12/the_siege_of_carrie_lam.htm
======
kenneth
(For context — am an expat living in HK.)

Living in HK the last few months has been frustrating for me, primarily
because of growing spread of misinformation and the untrustworthy reporting on
the situation. It's getting hard to know what information to believe, and
that's even for myself living here, who has seen all of it from my own eyes.
How could you expect anyone reading the news or social media from a foreign
country to be reacting to valid information?

The western media is making it sound like Hong Kong is Syria. Protester
private channels makes wild unfounded claims about mass-scale executions and
rapes. Chinese media makes it sound like HK is under siege by terrorists.
SCMP's reporting is increasingly suspiciously lacking and pro-establishment.
The government is entirely untrustworthy and straight up lying about
everything and anything.

There are a few people doing good work (e.g. OSINT HK), but it's not enough to
rise about the noise drowning it all out.

Of course the real situation is more nuanced. It's also all entirely
pointless, with no hope for de-escalation or positive resolution.

That said, it's also not nearly as dramatic and disrupting to daily life as
you'd expect. Living in HK is still far safer than in downtown San Francisco
(or anywhere in the US for that matter). For those wishing to stay out of it,
avoiding protests is fairly easy (I mean — unless you live in Mong Kong or
Prince Edward). The handful of times I ended up right in the middle of it,
nobody really cared to bother any bystanders.

The government seems to be on a mission to do anything in its power to make
things worse, from repeatedly escalating the situation through violence,
inflammatory policy, and generally being a party-pooper and cancelling all
ordinary celebrations (e.g. Halloween).

Today, walking down the street in Sai Ying Pun, I observed workers replacing
the wooden paneling they've been installing in front of the mainland Chinese
banks to protect them from the thrashings with welded metal paneling. It was
somewhat of a sign that they're getting ready for this to continue in the long
term.

~~~
cafard
What western media? The NY Times and the Washington Post make it sound
troubled, but not like a war zone.

~~~
klenwell
> Western media is making it sound like Hong Kong is Syria. Protester private
> channels makes wild unfounded claims about mass-scale executions and rapes.

Yes, I was going to say I never got this impression listening to NPR.

[https://www.npr.org/tags/352993831/hong-kong-
protests](https://www.npr.org/tags/352993831/hong-kong-protests)

------
mamborambo
The hopeless situation of Carrie Lam fronting the CCP and having to execute
its policy, is what drove Hong Kong into the people's revolution of 2019.
Under the CCP, local administrators do not need ideas, just obedience. Carrie
Lam's misfortune was to be sandwiched between the increasing paranoia of Xi
Jin Ping, and the increasing rebelliousness of HKers, and she has no strategy
to resolve the two forces.

Except she could have chosen to take the HKer's side. She is after all a HK
citizen and its representative even without true election. Seven million
rebels can parallelize a city, but pissing off a few thousand bureaucrats in
the politburo simply leads to tantrums and rhetorics. If she had done that,
HK's economy would not have stalled, HKers would rally behind her, and the
whole Two System debate could be channelled into a consultation process that
can remain civil and reasonable.

HKers will not forgive her for her missteps and police brutality that led to
thousands of arrested and hundreds of maimed/injured/raped/dead. That will
always be her legacy.

But HKers can thank her incompetence for triggering the nationalistic feeling
of a Hongkonger. The city of immigrants and world refugees has never been so
clearly in sync, and the common enemy so in focus.

~~~
navaati
> Except she could have chosen to take the HKer's side.

Could she ? Wouldn’t she have been "disappeared" as well as her family ?

Not trying to excuse anything of course, she chose her side a long time ago,
but still…

~~~
idlewords
No, she would not have been disappeared. Hong Kong is not a society where
senior public figures and family members are purged for stepping out of line.

But let's say you believe that dark scenario. In that case, even small
gestures, like visiting a school or hospital, or not calling protesters
"enemies of the people", would have been a sign of sympathy.

~~~
fieryscribe
She chose to visit injured police officers and broken Octopus machines
(turnstiles in the local metro) instead of victims of police brutality.

She did visit the local mosque to apologize when the police blasted it with
tainted water, after she was called out on it. She did not visit nor apologize
to local churchs which experienced worse behavior.

She simply refuses to learn what Hong Kongers truly think of her. The district
elections were a stinging rebuke to her administration, yet she believes that
she is right.

We Hong Kongers will remember her and her cronies forever, in the same way we
remember the June 4th crackdown.

------
sumgame
‘ No one on either side of the conflict , then or now, has a satisfactory
theory of why Carrie Lam won’t form an independent inquiry into police
violence, the demand that is the emotional core of the protests.’

Does China have anything to loose with an independent inquiry into police
violence ?

The Hong Kong situation is still quite baffling. I initially thought that the
emotional motivation was independence. But it seems like that’s not the crux
of the issue

~~~
pgeorgi
> I initially thought that the emotional motivation was independence.

More like autonomy: apparently Hong Kong citizens don't mind being part of
China as long as they can keep their self-governance.

And that ties in to your question:

> Does China have anything to loose with an independent inquiry into police
> violence ?

Such an inquiry would emphasize HK's autonomy (and also paint government as
potentially fallible, something the party doesn't like to see discussed). On
the other hand: does China have anything to win with such an inquiry? I can't
see anything (there are four more demands and giving in on this would likely
increase support for demanding the rest), so for them it's all risk and no
gain.

~~~
jandrese
> More like autonomy: apparently Hong Kong citizens don't mind being part of
> China as long as they can keep their self-governance.

So they don't mind being a part of China so long as they aren't actually a
part of China. I can't blame them either, the current system has worked out
well for the island, and China's internal polices have not had quite as much
success on the mainland.

But Chinese officials were pretty clear from the start that they intended to
integrated HK eventually and that the semi-detached existence was only
temporary. They see this as inevitable and the HL population is just dragging
their heels on something that has to happen in the end.

~~~
nailer
I think some folk in the west naively assumed that a wealthy populace on the
mainland would get tired of corruption and rule by self appointed officials,
and eventually liberalise. Harmony would be achieved this way.

Instead China is implementing totalitarianism on a first world region and the
Cantonese hate it.

~~~
bllguo
HK is largely cantonese but not all cantonese are from hong kong. let's use
accurate language

------
irjustin
Best of luck to the HK people. I called it home for better part of 2 years. I
lived in Wan Chai on Hennessy rd near the computer center.

Plenty of atrocities committed - people being shipped off in train cars
reminiscent of pre-WWII photos that I have only learned about in school.

Best wishes.

[EDIT] I agree I should have said alleged atrocities. Sadly, hardly anyone
left in HK is impartial but hopefully independent enough investigations are
opened.

To the trains - I was referring to this I saw a few weeks ago:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/dxz3xd/transporti...](https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/dxz3xd/transporting_prisoners_by_train_potentially/)

It is not a good look loading anyone in trains who is captive. True, we don't
know where they're headed, could be fine - it's a bad look given the
situation.

~~~
XuMiao
HK has been in a bad economic situation for many years. Without mainland
China's support, it's even worse. The tension in the HK society is at the
breaking point. Young generation has less opportunities to improve their life
quality.

People who support CCP believe that it is the greedy capitalism caused the
problem. Implementation of the CCP regime can rebuild HK. People who support
democracy believe that it is the CCP iron fist caused suffocating.

No one is backing down. It ended up with a civil war.

Humans repeat their mistakes generation after generation.

~~~
treden
It's an extraordinary claim that mainland has been supporting HK. What support
do you mean by this?

~~~
goblin89
Economically, a lot of businesses profit from mainland Chinese tourists (some
mainly thanks to them). Reduced travel in light of this year’s events has
caused a serious drop in sales of luxury products, for example.

Yesterday I talked about just that with an HKer who works in marketing.
Democracy supporters acknowledge that this trend is hurting the economy,
though on bright side they welcome businesses starting to target local long-
term customers more.

~~~
kenneth
Business is bad.

The number of restaurants and bars I see closing on an almost daily basis is
getting sad. My friends in the F&B industry here confirm that they're hurting.
Bad.

Hospitality is hit even harder with hotels at 30% occupancy and many having to
offer rates at 50% or higher discounts, and having to lay off staff.

~~~
throwaway1997
HK has been over-reliant on these businesses to provide employment for a long
time. Most of the F&B outfits that are closing are fly by night outfits which
would only work when everyone in CBD has more money than sense. It will be a
good thing if this leads to us diversifying our economy a bit more.

------
ng12
I'm not sure I buy the argument that Lam is just a bumbling politician failing
to deal with a crisis when she's backed by the most powerful authoritarian
regime in the world.

~~~
battleangle
Yeah it's hard to believe, but that's part of the issue. She's never been a
politician, and was a second rate administrator / civil servant at best before
she was chosen for the position. I think that we often overestimate the
abilities of leaders everywhere in the world...

In addition, China is happy to let Carrie and HK stumble...to a certain extent
of course. But they truly have been very hands off on the HK protests. I think
it's worth noting that China is perfectly fine with HK getting burned by
itself just as long certain lines aren't crossed (independence, violence
against PLA, etc.). They weren't worried about losing HK when it was under
British colonial rule, they certainly aren't worried now.

Furthermore, things really aren't that bad considering how the media has been
reporting HK. It's still an extremely well-to-do city and life goes on in most
parts.

~~~
bobthepanda
To add onto it, she was basically picked because the other potential candidate
was a little too good at being a politician, and campaigned for the position
without Beijing’s blessing.

~~~
idlewords
You can't just mention him in passing and not say that he was widely known as
Mr. Pringles, for his majestic moustache!

~~~
yowlingcat
Were I to achieve not just being a successful politician, but one known as Mr.
Pringles. What a life.

------
anm89
It's really sad to say but a vicious fight, even with no endgame seems to be
the only sensible move for the Hong Kong people at this point.

At least, if they get pummeled, in the end, it will be extremely clear that
whatever happened was not consensual and will set them up to fight another
round down the line.

------
iandinwoodie
Off topic, but the site creator should really toss Bruce Mahalski some credit
for his image they are using as their logo.

------
Merrill
The CCP is probably content to let the HK situation continue to fester. The
economic role of HK relative to the PRC will continue to wane. HK will
continue to be portrayed as an object lesson in the dysfunction of democracy.
The CCP can assert control whenever it needs to by simply turning off the
water and electrical supply.

------
battleangle
The Hong Kong situation is much more complicated than mainstream media outside
Hong Kong would like the world to believe, but that goes without saying.

The issue with the current HK government at the end of the day is that Carrie
Lam is a second rate administrator and is wildly unqualified for handling the
current situation in HK. Worse yet, she has one of the worst cabinets / teams
ever assembled (you would need to be familiar with local HK politics to know
this). In other words, HK couldn't have had a worse group to lead the city at
this point in time.

Having said that, Carrie is completely reliant on the police force at this
stage. There is no way she agrees to an independent inquiry or any major moves
against the police. At least not right now.

I'd say that the independent inquriy may be something that can be compromised
on at some point. But universal suffrage is out of the question, and demands 3
and 4 would never be accepted by the rest of Hong Kong nor would any
reasonable person accept it given what has taken place since the original
protests. In fact one of the key issues is that "the protest" isn't just one
unified movement that has been moving forward since its inception.

~~~
FDSGSG
> demands 3 and 4 would never be accepted by the rest of Hong Kong nor would
> any reasonable person accept it given what has taken place since the
> original protests.

Why wouldn't any reasonable person accept an independent inquiry into police
brutality? That doesn't sound very reasonable to me.

------
metabork
Are there any good reasons to support the take that the extradition law was
Lam's own initiative and not pushed for by China ?

~~~
idlewords
James Palmer writing in August in Foreign Policy gives what is the consensus
view among journalists in Hong Kong:

"Analysts generally believe that the bill was the initiative of Hong Kong
leader Carrie Lam, not a measure suggested or strongly pushed from Beijing.
Lam may have been aiming to please the Chinese authorities and strengthen her
position, or it may have been an attempt to put a formal procedure in place in
order to circumvent the Chinese authorities from simply kidnapping Hong
Kongers."

[https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/03/why-is-hong-kong-
erupti...](https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/03/why-is-hong-kong-erupting-
protests-china-extradition/)

~~~
metabork
Thanks, my impression was that Beijing tried to quickly capitalize on an
opportunity that presented itself with the Taiwan murder - if this is really
Lam's own doing then the level of either stupidity or self-dealing is
staggering.

------
spyckie2
As an ABC who currently lives in HK but has no ties to Asia (born and raised
in the US) and has no personal interest in what's happening in HK, what I
observe is a global increase in pace of change affecting this generation
across the entire world, with drastically different results per region / body
of people based on their current economic, cultural, and political positions.

I think earthquakes are a good illustration of what's happening. Energy that
builds up, friction developed between tectonic plates that gets released,
either violently or smoothly, with varying levels of impact depending on the
geological conditions surrounding it.

In the US, I mostly agree with the high level view that Andrew Yang ascribes
(which is actually just the technocrat doom and gloom point of view) -
economic changes that created waves of discontent, with an unconscious
realization that problems have become too big for individuals alone to deal
with, demanding escalation to the government level to solve, bringing in a
feeling that we need something radically different (Trump) to handle the
observed radical differences that the 21st century world is bringing in.

In Asia, the socio-economic changes that are happening are the same as the US,
except instead of having the strongest economy in the world with a wealth of
resources, education, a progressive history and lots of national-level
experience in dealing with shocking changes, you have... exactly what you see
in HK. Asian culture, stemming from confucian values, encourage and promote
people to power who like to keep things the same way and discourage adaptation
(harmony in society is defined as minimizing conflict which usually means not
rocking the boat).

While the US (at least compared to other countries) has a system in place that
can handle mistakes, has a rich history of how to handle change and how to
properly push for progressive value shifts, the whole of Asia lacks all of
that experience as a culture. What you have is a bunch of the older generation
who are used to the old way of doing things, and see the world more similar to
the godfather era rather than modern society. The rest of society has a value
to not rock the boat and to care for outward harmony over bring up legitimate
issues. This yields an environment where people are just not "trained for
change". The actions that the current Asian political powers are taking look
primitive to anyone who has lived in modern society and has observed how
progressive shifts actually take place (and many have taken place over the
last 5-10 years).

It will be very interesting to see how Asia adapts because modern society
isn't going anywhere, it's actually speeding up and clashing more and more
with how the older generation wants things to be.

~~~
calcifer
> As an ABC who currently lives in HK

ABC?

~~~
kenneth
(Not OP) a common acronym for American-born Chinese.

------
Lucasoato
Rip democracy

~~~
guramarx11
yep, RISE In Peace ;)

