
China About to Start $35B of Silk Road Plan in Pakistan - moritzplassnig
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-24/china-about-to-start-35-billion-of-silk-road-plan-in-pakistan
======
nikcub
Another traditional US ally re-aligning itself between the two major spheres
of influence. The balance will tip further in China's favor as the USA recedes
further from global development.

What's interesting is if you look at the parallel international institutions
that China are developing that will compete with the IMF et al, many of the
partners are traditional and very close allies of the United States.

For ex. with the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, six of the top ten
participants are all traditional very close allies of the United States -
including Australia, France, the UK and South Korea[0]

Long before Trump, Obama lobbied the leaders of these nations and advised
against joining the AIIB, to no avail[1] All that post-war development and
planning of building up the US sphere of influence slowly and steadily fading
away.

[0]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Infrastructure_Investmen...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Infrastructure_Investment_Bank)

[1] [http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-asia-bank-
idUSKBN0M...](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-asia-bank-
idUSKBN0MD0B320150317)

~~~
binarray2000
While your analysis is true, it only describes the effects which have lead to
today's situation.

Here are a few causes:

* In late 80's US empire has definitely thrown international law above the board by organizing color revolutions, destabilizing other countries and waging wars

* US empire and its vassals (other NATO members) leave a trail of blood where ever they show up

* Officially, US military - despite its huge budget, infrastructure and human power - still has not (15 years later!) defeated "the terrorists"

* US empire has definitely destroyed its financial reputation in 1971 by unilaterally canceling the "gold standard" and, since then, the masks are off and US dollar is being printed/created in the computer at the speed of light, without anything but military might to back it

* World Bank and IMF - two institutions majorly influenced by the US - wreak havoc in South America, Africa, South Asia and South Europe

* Russia is getting back on feet after 2000 and US empire has no means to counter it

* US empire and its media have done something remarkable in the 26 years since the fall of the Berlin wall: In 1990 USA was a country with a great image, in 2016 USA is arguably the most hated country in the world

The world outside of the empire sees all this. And runs away from the bully
who has ("long before Trump") made himself weaker by seeking refuge in those
who show at least some respect.

~~~
spiderfarmer
> America’s overall image around the world remains largely positive. Across
> the nations surveyed (excluding the U.S.), a median of 69% hold a favorable
> opinion of the U.S., while just 24% express an unfavorable view. However,
> there is significant variation among regions and countries.[0]

I think we can agree the US often acts like a douchebag and that it has a lot
of passionate haters, but the fact is that there are not that many great
countries in the world.

It's true that the US is not number #1 in a lot areas and I really believe
that's a good thing. The whole world should improve, not just the US.
Inequality is at the root of a lot of evil in this world.

[0] [http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/06/23/1-americas-global-
image/](http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/06/23/1-americas-global-image/)

~~~
tiatia
The US is probably the nicest and most responsible super power ever.

A super power like the Roman empire would have won the Afghanistan war for
sure. But in a different way.

~~~
robert_foss
Even the nicest mass murderer is still a mass murderer.

~~~
tiatia
I don't think the US did mass murder in Afghanistan. This was part of the
problem. The Romans would have just made a population reduction of XX% per
year and things would have been fine. I think you should put your judgement
into perspective.

~~~
coredog64
Decimation in the original sense of the word?

~~~
tiatia
Yes. But decimation, as far as I know, was something the Romans did to their
own divisions for "unsatisfactory" services. But regarding Afghanistan, if you
crucify a few thousand men, women and children every day for the smallest
offence, resistance breaks fast.

~~~
Fluid_Mechanics
"...if you crucify a few thousand men, women and children every day for the
smallest offence, resistance breaks fast."

You would know this, how? Look at the butchery in Syria and tell me how people
respond to genocidal despots.

~~~
tiatia
Ou dear. The looses in Syria a minimal.

By the way, the losses of the US in the Vietnam war were minimal too. They
lost 60.000 People. In the 10 years or what, I assume they lost more people in
traffic accidents and suicides. Just to put numbers a little bit into
perspective.

------
grecy
I'm in West Africa now, and it's staggering to drive out of a tiny jungle
track onto a highway equal in size and quality to anywhere in the world. It's
also staggering to catch up to the road crew and see they are all Chinese.

Same goes for the hydo plants, railways, etc.

Of course, almost all of the roads and railways are to extract resources, not
to help locals in any way.

~~~
wjruoxue
Could be a win-win situation for both the Chinese and the local.

~~~
grecy
China stripping all the resources at a fraction of the international price,
raping the environment, hiring zero locals, and building roads and railways
that go from some place useless to another place useless.

No, It's really not helping locals.

~~~
lethargic_meat
Yep, I forgot about the masses of Chinese workers currently there (e.g.
Ghana). One can only hope rising Chinese standards and wages will eventually
convince them to hire local instead.

------
LordFrith
The Karakoram Highway, between Pakistan and China, is an amazing engineering
achievement.

The cartoonist and author Ted Rall has visited Central Asia many times.

[http://rall.com/2009/06/04/the-karakoram-
highway](http://rall.com/2009/06/04/the-karakoram-highway)

~~~
caf
That's a great article - it'd be interesting to know if the KKH has changed
much in the intervening 17 years.

~~~
Animats
Apparently there are still bad sections, but more of the highway has been
upgraded.[1] China is providing most of the money. In 2010, a major earthquake
caused landslides which created a new lake, taking out part of the highway. It
took until 2015 to build a new route with 5Km of tunnels.

Here's a partial list of projects being funded in Pakistan by China.[2]
China's government seems determined to get a land linkup to Europe. Yet this
isn't the main "New Silk Road" route - that's further north, through Iran and
Iraq.[3] With all the wars in that area, China apparently sees a need to have
multiple alternate routes for trade. Good thinking in Beijing.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconstruction_of_the_Karakora...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconstruction_of_the_Karakoram_Highway)
[2]
[http://boi.gov.pk/userfiles1/file/List%20of%20MoUs.docx](http://boi.gov.pk/userfiles1/file/List%20of%20MoUs.docx)
[3]
[http://www.xinhuanet.com/silkroad/english/index.htm](http://www.xinhuanet.com/silkroad/english/index.htm)

~~~
zhte415
China is also extremely interested in economically developing its inner
regions, as they've lagged economic development which has come to coastal
regions due to high cost of logistics. Anything bought in Islamabad that's
'made in China' was likely manufactured on China's east cost, and arrived via
ship.

If it would be economically viable to have the same thing manufactured in
Xinjiang or Qinghai, and shipped by road, it would be a huge boost for those
areas. Especially if linked through Pakistan's road network to sea ports,
bringing easy access to Middle East, Europe, Africa as ships would no longer
have to navigate via Singapore.

An in reverse, it would be a huge diversification of import routes for
commodities could come in via another route. Not oil specifically, but all
kinds of bulk. Bulk carries of commodities are far less efficient than oil
ships, the largest with a capacity of 100,000 tons but 30-60k capacity more
common (far less than the capacity of a supertanker). So commodities needed to
develop the west of China now have a simpler, more efficient route.

------
pk22
I am from Pakistan and I really wish it was the US. I wish they had spent
1/10th of the money on development they spent on the war. This could have been
something that brought stability and more US influence in the region. I think
China will reap all the benefits now.

~~~
bromuro
Where in the world has the US brought stability with its international
politics?

~~~
Tepix
Europe for a couple of decades following WW2.

~~~
discordianfish
Why just couple of decades? Its still quite peaceful here.

~~~
Arnt
Yes, but not significantly due to recent US policy or actions.

The Taiwan policy has been pretty good over the last many decades, and there
have been other interludes of excellence, such as that offer to Marcos ("you
can live in the US and enjoy the spoils of your crimes in peace if you move
NOW and PEACEFULLY"). I'm sure there are more.

------
scaraffe
The one thing the article doesn't mention is that some of the projects under
this plan passes through the Pok (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir), which creates a
precarious situation between India, Pakistan and China over Kashmir.

~~~
fdsak
None of this goes through POK
([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azad_Kashmir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azad_Kashmir)),
could you reference any? If you are thinking of Gilgit-Baltistan
([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilgit-
Baltistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilgit-Baltistan)), it got
independence from Dogra Raj in 1948 after a short war, then the tug-of-war b/w
Pakistan and India and rest is history.

~~~
surmkm
The princely state of Jammu and Kashmir was comprised of Jammu region, Kashmir
Valley, Ladakh, Gilgit, Baltistan and a bit of Aksai Chin.[1] So, India have
Jammu, Ladakh and a part of Kashmir. Pakistan have POK (Azad Kashmir + Gilgit-
Baltistan). And, China have Aksai Chin.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jammu_and_Kashmir_(princely_st...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jammu_and_Kashmir_\(princely_state\))

~~~
fdsak
You are right upto 1948, when we fought for our independence to get rid-off
Dogra Raj, and became independent and affiliated with Pakistan. So Pakistan
did not occupy us. Each side (both India and Pakistan) narrate this story for
her benefit :)

------
knight17
When this goes live, China will gain access to an Indian ocean port in Gwadar.
This project runs through Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir; these are
contested/disputed territory between India and Pakistan. China and India
already have boundary disputes in Kashmir and in Arunachal/Tibet

More than an Indian ocean port (which could be blockaded by India in case of a
war with either of Pakistan or China), this will connect China by road with
Middle East Asia and other Central Asian states; China hopes this connectivity
will boost trade in the future.

This project is undertaken with the intent to engage the excess capacity of
the engineering firms that have grown and matured over the years with China's
economic surge in the last three decades. These companies have the expertise,
technology and project management expertise—to build roads, dams, bridges,
tunnels, rails, trains, engines, steel, cement and myriad other things—but
doesn't have any takers as they had earlier because of the economic slowdown
in China.

Another reading is that China has lots of Capital which it can invest abroad
but not at home. With the overheated economy at home it is wiser to redeploy
it in countries with friendly disposition to Chinese investments.

If all goes well China can get a new avenue for its products. Even if none of
it works it is not too bad, as China will get the host governments indebted.
Sri Lanka[1], with its Hambantota port project, can be considered as an
example.

[1]: [http://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2016/11/17/sri-
lanka...](http://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2016/11/17/sri-lanka-claims-
it-didnt-really-sell-key-national-infrastructure-to-china/)

------
AtlasLion
In (somehow) related news, Morocco is enlisting the help of China for building
a new City.

[http://qz.com/841803/morocco-wants-to-build-a-new-city-
from-...](http://qz.com/841803/morocco-wants-to-build-a-new-city-from-scratch-
with-china│)

They just finished building a Huge bridge near the city of Rabat.

[http://www.thearabweekly.com/Economy/5954/Rabat%E2%80%99s-ca...](http://www.thearabweekly.com/Economy/5954/Rabat%E2%80%99s-cable-
stayed-bridge-to-have-big-effect-on-Morocco)

------
knowaveragejoe
I'm not sure why the bottom comment is marked "dead", but it seems prescient
to me. Isolationism is exactly what China wants the US to do.

~~~
olalonde
Being off topic probably had more to do with it. Personally, I'm happy to see
that the first comment is related to the story and not the predictable China
bashing.

~~~
knowaveragejoe
I suppose you have a point, as it is just speculation. But if we are being
consistent, we should probably admonish the US-bashing as well, since it is
perhaps even more irrelevant.

------
mankash666
Ah. One hears a lot of complaining from Pakistan and it's citizens against the
US and it's apparently damaging policies.

It's unlikely for one to hear such complaints against China, as China will nip
any dissent in the bud, with an iron fist. The great Chinese censor and
censure machinery will soon hold a tight grip around the citizens, media and
politics of Pakistan. Happy 2017 and beyond!

------
ssvss
Related article regarding China's investment in Srilanka.

[http://thediplomat.com/2016/11/china-and-sri-lanka-
between-a...](http://thediplomat.com/2016/11/china-and-sri-lanka-between-a-
dream-and-a-nightmare/)

------
sanmon3186
With most of industrial China on the eastern side, I wonder how beneficial
will this trade route be, to China.

~~~
MagnumOpus
This creates more roads/rail from the ports (Gwadar/Karachi etc) to the inland
(Islamabad etc), so it will help Chinese trade goods, which almost exclusively
arrive by ship to the ports.

(Of course, facilitating trade is of secondary importance to the geopolitical
aim of gaining influence in Pakistan by making it more dependent on Chinese
money and less dependent on western capital markets or western multilateral
organisations.)

~~~
simonh
Anything that makes Pakistan more prosperous and economically stable is a good
thing for the west, the rest of the world and Pakistan.

Anything that gets China more positively engaged with the rest of the world is
good, because it makes China more interested in international stability,
property rights and the rule of law. Eventually I think China will come to
realize that, as a major investor and driver of economic development around
the world, their interests align very closely with those of the west.

~~~
hd4
>more prosperous and economically stable is a good thing for

This is such a crucial point. No one in the world needs an unstable, angsty
nuclear-armed state.

>think China will come to realize that, as a major investor and driver of
economic development around the world, their interests align

I think China realized long ago that being prosperous while having hungry
neighbors on its doorstep is not really conducive to regional peace. They
actually prop up NK exactly for this reason I believe.

