
Show HN: CoronaVirus Report Number Simulator - GistNoesis
https://gistnoesis.github.io/nCoV/
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GistNoesis
Hello HN, here is a tool I did for myself in a few hours, to help understand
how to read the various numbers coming from the recent epidemic.

I'm not an epidemiologist, and this is just a fun data science/ curve fitting
experiment.

It's done using Vue.js and plotly.js so that it is reactive and you can update
and fit the parameters, but otherwise a spreadsheet or a python would have
been fine.

The TLDR is we don't have enough info from these curves to infer reliably any
parameters.

The code is available on github.

I released it as a fun toy to play with curves, please don't use some of my
parameters fit to push an agenda either way.

Also if the real numbers don't fit quite well the model, don't trust the model
over the real numbers as the model is as simplistic as it gets (because we
already don't have a lot of data so adding parameters would only make the
curves easier to over-fit).

