
‘High Likelihood of Human Civilization Coming to an End’ Starting in 2050 - onetimemanytime
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/597kpd/new-report-suggests-high-likelihood-of-human-civilization-coming-to-an-end-in-2050
======
T-A
On inspection, this article turns out to be based on a "report" [1] containing
11 pages of wide-spaced text, which break down as follows:

p. 1: Title.

p. 2: List of contents, blurbs about the authours.

p. 3: Foreword by retired admiral endorsing "this policy paper", same text as
in [2].

p. 4: Overview and introduction (half page empty).

p. 5: Complaint about "scientific reticence" (2/3 empty).

p. 6: Explanation of the term "existential risk".

p. 7: Rumination about existential risk management.

p. 8-9: The "2050 Scenario" justifying the title. Turns out to be nothing more
than the kind of synopsis a writer might jot down while planning a short
story. No new research results are presented. It's just a story.

p. 10: Discussion and policy recommendations, and the obvious reason for the
retired admiral's endorsement: the last point is "Urgently examine the role
that the national security sector can play in providing leadership and
capacity for a near-term, society-wide, emergency mobilization of labour and
resources".

p. 11: Empty, except for a "BreakThrough" footer.

So what we have here is two elderly gentlemen suggesting that the task of
leading Australia should be turned over to the military, a retired admiral
enthusiastically endorsing this as a great idea (shocking, I know), and a
chorus of (I'm willing to bet) mostly liberal, progressive young people
chiming in on the basis of a "report" which they haven't read.

[1]
[https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/papers](https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/papers)

[2] [http://www.climatecodered.org/2019/05/can-we-think-in-new-
wa...](http://www.climatecodered.org/2019/05/can-we-think-in-new-ways-
about.html)

------
bad_good_guy
One of the biggest challenges we face is the ingrained apathy toward this
issue by older generations. How can they care as much as younger generations
when it will be unlikely to affect them much in their lifetime?

As much as people may claim to have empathy for others, it's undeniable that
their own personal viewpoint and stake has massive influence on mindsets.

Just imagine for a moment how children or teenagers feel about news like this
while they see the 'elders' in charge of the world do so little and act with
almost no sense of emergency

I'm quite young, in my early 20s, but I still struggle to comprehend how
someone age 10 or even 15 must feel.

~~~
philwelch
It’s because the world has always been coming to an end. If you’re 50 years
old today, you grew up hearing that nuclear war or acid rain or the population
bomb would be the end of the world and the sky was falling. Eventually you
stop listening to kids crying wolf.

------
bayareanative
0\. Forget prepper YAGNI nonsense, get into stealth, defensible greenhouse
farming outside of population centers with abundant and reliable access to
freshwater.

1\. Don't depend on electricity or civilization.

2\. Get really good at the tools and techniques of tracking, hunting and war.

3\. a) Have lots of kids and b) have enough trustworthy confederates who can
keep their mouths shut.

~~~
onetimemanytime
>> _b) have enough trustworthy confederates who can keep their mouths shut._

when that thing hits the fan, "trustworthy" or "brother" takes a whole new
meaning. But, yeah, far, far away from people and get ready to go back 5000
years. Just in case. To be prepared for a lot of people costs next to nothing,
but rewards can be immense. So it pays to be prepared.

~~~
bsmitty5000
There's also immediate benefits, like helping to alleviate some of the current
issues with our mass-produced food chain, eg less concern w/ salmonella in
your romaine if you grew it yourself, higher quality eggs and meat if you
control what your birds eat, etc.

------
fuzz4lyfe
If anyone here believes this I'd happily pay $100 today for all of your assets
come 2050.

~~~
onetimemanytime
what am I going to do with your $100 the minute civilization collapses? And
that's leaving out all our issues...such as insurance, or keeping them just in
case since $100 is nothing.

~~~
fuzz4lyfe
$100 today, not in 2059

>just in case

But the science is settled I'm told, do you lack faith?

~~~
onetimemanytime
Getting cute? Fine, want my PayPal address to send the $100? in 2059 come and
get my earthly possessions

------
leptoniscool
We are in a period between ice ages, couldn't this recent human-powered
warming be a good thing in that it delays the onset of another ice age?

~~~
11235813213455
The problem is really not just global heating, but the pollution, CO2, loss of
wild life, trees - the lungs of this planet. Also the variability of the
climate is very detrimental for the vegetation
[https://youtu.be/Q_m_0UPOzuI?t=131](https://youtu.be/Q_m_0UPOzuI?t=131)

And I think, before governments set a global plan, people should already
change their own behaviors: consume way less, drive less, travel way less
(above all when it's 'just' for vacation), stopping to have pets (pet industry
is quite large, so quite polluting, and they provide no benefits to the
ecosystem, unlike wild animals, even if it's not significant compared to human
consumption, it's worth) and so on

