
Show HN: World Cup 2018 Predictions with Bayesian ML - lum
https://kickoff.ai
======
lum
Short technical explanation: We've extended a pretty cool skill-based model of
comparison outcomes called TrueSkill Through Time [1], developed by Microsoft
Research.

Compared to TrueSkill, our model is able to learn the dynamics of football
teams' skill in a more flexible way, and therefore we achieve slightly more
accurate predictions. It also makes for great visualizations!

For those of you who know the Elo rating system: our model is similar but
beats Elo by ~10% [2]

Our goal is to use the kickoff.ai platform to continuously evaluate and
improve our models. We hope to become the FiveThirtyEight of football! [3]

Links to our Euro 2016 model & show HN:

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11868863](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11868863)
[http://euro2016.kickoff.ai](http://euro2016.kickoff.ai)

[1] [https://www.microsoft.com/en-
us/research/publication/trueski...](https://www.microsoft.com/en-
us/research/publication/trueskill-through-time-revisiting-the-history-of-
chess/)

[2] in terms of log-loss, compared to a baseline that gives probability 1/3 to
each outcome.

[3] Actually, FiveThirtyEight also has football predictions (albeit only for
club competitions): [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-
predictions/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/)

~~~
ajra
Awesome project, I love the use of TrueSkill Through Time here! Really
interesting that it beats out Elo as well.

FiveThirtyEight actually posted their WC predictions earlier today [1].
Finding where the two models diverge is a fun exercise -- they have Morocco as
a 40% favorite tomorrow while your model has Iran as a 46% favorite.

It would be interesting to test the model by applying the Kelly Criterion [2]
when you have an odds advantage to a fake initial $1000 bankroll and seeing
where you end up at the end of the tournament.

If Iran does end up being a 46% favorite tomorrow then that Kelly test will
start to look really good, really quickly - the market is only giving Iran a
~25% chance right now!

[1] [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-
predicti...](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-
predictions/matches/)

[2] [http://www.elem.com/~btilly/kelly-
criterion/](http://www.elem.com/~btilly/kelly-criterion/) for the background,
[http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/](http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/)
for a useful calculator

~~~
lum
Thanks! Regarding the Kelly Criterion—that's a great idea, I'll look into it!

I think we were off to a good start after Morocco vs Iran (for which we had
significantly different predictions and got it right), but lost quite a bit
with Danemark vs Peru (we had Peru as favorite).

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noso
It will be interesting to see the Portugal v Spain result, now the manager has
been sacked.

Looks really good and I love this stuff. Great work!

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senatorobama
What did you predict for ARG v ISL?

~~~
noso
I think it was:

ARG 73% to win for a draw 19% ISL 8% to win

~~~
lum
Yes, exactly!

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gakos
Sweet project!

