
Let's do this again. Predictions for the 2020s - DanielBMarkham
Since recently my post from 2010 was shared asking for predictions for the upcoming decade[1], it made sense to go around one more time. This time let&#x27;s do a little more structure.<p>1. What do you think were the three biggest changes in the 2010s (Events or inventions)?
2. What do you think will be three things of significance that happen over the next decade?
3. If you played last time, how would you score yourself? If you made mistakes, why do you think that is? Any lessons you picked up from reading your previous post and comparing what actually happened?<p>1. Elon Musk and truly reusable rockets, technology shown to be a much more dangerous thing than we believed (social media, surveillance state, addictive gaming), and exoplanet discoveries<p>2. disaggregated groups of people radicalizing one another and the fallout from that, human lifespan lengthened through medication (aging treated as a disease), and fusion finally<p>3. I made three predictions. The last one, that flat panel displays would never truly approach wallpaper sizes for the home, was right. The second one, ubiquitous computing finally arrives, I&#x27;m going to score half-right. We didn&#x27;t get RFID chips and walk-up computing, but we do have computers and net access with everything from our TVs to sous vide machines. The first one, that Iran would see some sort of drastic change? Blew that one completely. They look today about the same as they did then, on the razors edge of disaster.<p>To me the most interesting part of this comparison is how incremental the 2010s were. Current trends in 2010 tended to continue along. I blew it when I thought &quot;this trend cannot continue&quot;. Turns out it did. This is a humbling lesson.<p>I am also happy that my stretch goal, finding earth-like exoplanets, was reached (mostly). I did not realize that this exoplanet story is likely one to span several generations. Damn, science moves slowly at times.<p>1 https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=1025681
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colund
1\. I think the biggest change was that almost everyone got addicted to their
phone screens and Facebook and got connected all over the world. I know
Facebook is pre 2010 but I think it really took off with the use of
smartphones.

2\. I think the biggest things of significance is that treatment of cancer
will improve even more and global warming will be acknowledge as a fact by
most people. It will be more common to work as self-employed (often from home)
rather than in big corporate open offices.

3\. N/A

