

The Internet sky really is falling - urlwolf
http://www.networkworld.com/cgi-bin/mailto/x.cgi?pagetosend=/export/home/httpd/htdocs/columnists/2009/050609-johnson.html&pagename=/columnists/2009/050609-johnson.html&pageurl=http://www.networkworld.com/columnists/2009/050609-johnson.html&site=print

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slavox
I found this article, rather vague..

How is it that computer networks will override moore's law? Either networking
is inherently too costly on CPU/Hardware Or someone miscalculated that with a
rise in computer power the networking infrastructure also rises in power..

Also using Youtube as an example for "clogged tubes" is silly, Youtube is
clogging their own tubes (Ours too but only because we're not keeping up in
rolling out new networks) Think of delivery via means like Bittorrent (no that
doesn't instantly mean piracy) But rather as a protocol for distribution and
even streaming media..More efficent so it makes the youtube costs much smaller
and the overall load more distributed.

There is a maximum amount of traffic that could flow on the internet
currently, but theoretically we will one day have a limit to our consumption
above 1080p we might only ever need 2k and so that will be video, text is too
small to worry about and music will only change in quality to a few gigs per
album, So what more could we transfer?

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jodrellblank
Ah, another "we must be at the end of the future now" post.

 _So what more could we transfer?_

Multiple video streams for a start, for enhanced 3D or choose-your-own-
viewpoint or choose-your-own-ending.

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slavox
I agree, But how many Video streams would we need to stream at once for it to
overrun moore's law is what i don't get, Sure it's a heck of a big job, but
it's not a falling sky as such.

3D enhanced video sounds great! but all these technologies really won't be
loading more than 3-6 streams of data at once, which we can keep up with
easily.

It's just that choking bandwith doesn't cause any loss of customers until the
competition offers better..at least that's how it is here

(NZ)

But i get it, there are huge files, But i still think we can keep up.

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jodrellblank
It's only routing tables that they claimed are growing at a rate outstripping
Moore's Law, as I read it.

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danh
If this was true, we should be seeing bandwidth becoming more expensive. At
least here in Sweden, the opposite seems to be true: prices seem to continue
to fall.

And for the idea that we will someday hit a "capacity ceiling" to be true,
price elasticity for bandwidth (and IP numbers) must be very, very low. I
don't know of any evidence that we are ready to pay humongous amounts for
tomorrows 3D, 2160p, video streams.

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chaosmachine
In North America, bandwidth is becoming more expensive in the form of overage
charges for exceeding your bandwidth cap. My ISP charges a ridiculous $2 per
GB for anything past 90GB.

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slavox
How much is your monthly charge though? I mentioned mine just above..

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chaosmachine
It's about $70 for 10mbit down, 1mbit up. They also throttle bittorrent to
about 10% of that.

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chaosmachine
Does anyone have more info on YouTube "discontinuing video delivery to certain
geographies due to lack of access capacity"? From what I understand this was
more of a "we can't monetize 3rd world traffic" problem.

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josefresco
You're right, he pulled that into the article to support his very weak
argument.

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klon
She

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pert
I don't agree with the "lack of access capacity" being a blocker for Internet
growth/development. This problem can be solved easily by more investment from
the cable/Telecom companies.

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jmtame
Really? As if that hasn't _already_ happened?
<http://www.newnetworks.com/tellthetruthverizon.htm>

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pert
Some ISPs have done very well in staying ahead of the demand curve. Others,
such as BT and Virgin Media here in the UK, are not investing in areas of
their network where demand has _already_ outstripped supply.

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quoderat
I remember seeing this same alarmism in 1995. And 1997. And 1999.
And...and...and. Tired of it.

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jodrellblank
Oh please don't call the successor technology "LISP".

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CodeMage
Maybe they should call it "ARC" instead ;)

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theblackbox
I often wonder if the Beeb could implement a location aware torrent based
streaming app for iPlayer... I think they could drastically cut their costs if
they just let their data exist on license payers personal networks, and it
would make a hell of an experiment on optimising data flow.

~~~
slavox
Torrent streaming is very efficient for the server costs, However you have to
stop trying to lock everything down somewhere because though it's a nice
thought it only annoys the legit users.

In the end there is no way to stop someone just "dubbing" the video manually
if there are a million software blocks in place, If you can see it you can
steal it, Is the way media goes.

All the anti-piracy protections hurt more consumers who pay than the pirates
who won't be worried by it once they have it.

However more to the point, Torrenting would be a wonderful alternative
especially if it was made aware to the users that by leaving it streaming
they'd HELP the BBC, It'd make for great content distribution.

<http://trial.p2p-next.org/moreinfo/moreinfo.html>

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theblackbox
thanks for the link, it seems interesting!

One of the problems with this solution is that the content itself must become
"location aware" as it wouldn't be fair to stream BBC content to the rest of
the world when it's only being paid for by UK license payers. I see this as
one of the founding principals of BBC iPlayer:- they have had the technology
and the content to distribute BBC media worldwide for a good few years, but to
do so fairly and maintain the illusion of order (because as you say "If you
can see it you can steal it") the BBC have needed a rather robust piece of
software to keep an eye on things. I hope they reach a point where they will
turn off the "7 day listings" for license payers and have all the content
available for download and sharing via an "in house" iPlayer Torrent.... guess
it's not beyond the realms of possibility... and just think, we could finally
have Later with Jools Holland on tap! That alone is enough to make it a
worthwhile endeavour, when you factor in David Attenborough.... it's almost
utopian ;)

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johnbender
'cable companies are implementing "usage caps" to keep users from, er,
consuming "too much" bandwidth'

used as proof that we're running out of capacity...

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Ardit20
Perhaps the broadband providers are 'capping bandwidth' because the research
these guys did seems to give them some added legitimacy to do so?

