

Do NBA Players Try Harder in the Playoffs? - lukas
http://www.slate.com/id/2217721/

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amalcon
They didn't provide very much info on methodology here, which I suppose is
acceptable for a lay article. Still, it makes it impossible to make any real
use of this information. Did they compare statistics during the playoffs
against aggregate statistics for the same teams over the entire year? Did they
only use the middle 50% (or some other arbitrary portion) of the season, to
remove early-season unfamiliarity and the effects of late-season "lame duck"
teams? Did they only compare stats for games between teams that reached the
playoffs (thus ensuring that they are at least vaguely similar caliber)? Did
they discount elimination games, where of course the teams will be less
worried about being tired and aching tomorrow, because there might not _be_ a
game tomorrow?

A better way to do a study like this would be to compare non-elimination games
between the same two teams, in the playoffs and out. Unfortunately, you lose a
large portion of your sample size when you eliminate variables in this way.

It would also be better to go the other way: do various regressions to figure
out which stats tend to change in the playoffs, and then ask actual basketball
players and coaches if it's plausible that those stats could be correlated
with effort. It's not perfect, by any means, but it's better than picking some
stats that we think should be correlated with effort and seeing if they change
in the playofs.

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lawrence
ugh, as a baller this doesn't make any sense.

not only do folks crash the offensive boards harder when it matters, they box
out harder as well on the defensive boards.

i love stats + basketball but you need at least a little knowledge of the game
to make it work.

~~~
ibsulon
The crew at Basketball Prospectus know their stuff. What I saw from this was
that nobody knows how to quantify effort yet, so here are a few first guesses
that don't really work.

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umjames
Of course they do, not only are they playing for the right to win a
championship, but their contracts have incentive clauses for advancing through
and winning the title.

It also means they'll have more leverage when they negotiate for higher
salaries since they have proven success in the playoffs. Some players are
well-known (and well-paid) for just their playoff performances. "Big shot"
Robert Horry has hit clutch shots while winning championships for the Rockets,
Lakers, and Spurs.

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cameldrv
This article doesn't make much sense. They hypothesize that effort increases
in the playoffs, and to try to prove this, they find the statistic that
changes the most between the playoffs and the regular season, and call that
"effort."

