

The Year the Monarch Didn’t Appear - bowerbird
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/24/sunday-review/the-year-the-monarch-didnt-appear.html

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whyenot
For better or worse, we are currently in the midst of another mass extinction.
It's something that will play out for generations as humans continue to modify
the planet for our needs. We don't really know yet what the end result will
look like. Our grand kids probably won't know either.

Just one example: somewhere around 1995 a nursery in California, most likely
in Marin or the North Bay, imported some plants from Asia. What they didn't
know at the time was the leaves of those plants were infected with the fungus-
like organism _Phytophthora ramorum_. That organism would eventually escape
and infect tanoak and coast live oak throughout central California. A few
years later it was found in Oregon. That organism causes the disease called
sudden oak death. While it is difficult to make predictions, the impact on
oaks in California will likely be profound. One study predicted that 90% of
the coast live oak and black oak in California will be dead within the next 50
years. Animals that use acorns from these species for food will probably
experience a decline, and one could imagine further ripple effects throughout
the ecosystem.

If you live or work in Silicon Valley, and you look to the west at the coast
range, most of that green stuff that you are seeing on the mountains is coast
live oak woodland. Now imagine 30%, 60%, 90% of those trees dead.

(The above information is based on a talk by Matteo Garbelotto, a plant
pathologist at UC Berkeley.)

By the way, you may of heard of California's "golden hills"? Non-native annual
grasses. Brought to California by the Spanish when they first explored the
state. Over time, the non-native grasses crowded out most of California's
native perennial grasses. If you had lived in California 700 years ago, many
of the hills wouldn't be golden, they would have been tinged green.

~~~
wobbleblob
The same thing happened to the American chestnut and various species of Elm.
Around 100 years ago, the chestnut was the most common deciduous tree east of
the Mississippi. The chestnut blight, an accidentally introduced Asian fungus
that causes the bark to fall off, effectively wiped the species out in less
than 40 years. Only suckers from ancient root stocks remain. As soon as a stem
grows thick enough to support a thick bark, the fungus kills it.

During the second half of the 20th century, the Elm effectively became extinct
in the wild, both in Europe and North America, due to the Elm disease.

More recently the Hemlock came under attack from the hemlock woolly adelgid,
an accidentally introduced Asian insect. The next generation will not be able
to imagine what a mature hemlock looked like.

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thaddeusmt
I remember catching monarch butterfly caterpillars, as a child in New York,
and keeping them with milkweed stems until they formed their chrysalis and
eventually "hatched" as butterflies. Amazing.

We moved West eventually, and I've rarely seen monarchs since. I figured it
was just because of the different habitat (no milkweed), but apparently it's
not just that.

All insects are amazing in their own ways, but monarchs just have that extra
curbside appeal to humans. Sad to hear they are in decline.

Regardless of the link-bait/fear-mongering at play in any environmental
journalism these days... I have genuine concern about growing the impact of
humans on the earth. It's hard to remain optimistic sometimes, even as a
technology-positive person.

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rosser
I'm starting to wonder seriously if we haven't already passed an inflection
point in the wanton destruction of the environment from which we'll never
fully recover. Someone please convince me we haven't broken our planet beyond
its ability to carry us.

~~~
Daishiman
We already have. You think the CO2 in the atmosphere is going to go away by
itself?

The only question is how long we're in for the ride. The most pessimistic but
fact-based theories speculate thirty years before the increase in methane and
CO2 emissions produces a 4+ degree increase in temperature and begins the
truly profound changes that could result in the death of billions.

The rest is just speculation; depending on how big the exponential curve is
(that's the problem with exponentials, small variations in the parameters have
huge long-term impact), it's anywhere between 30 and 300 years.

Now, if we get the more drastic theories out of the way or if we pretend that
the melting of the Siberian peat bogs won't matter (that is, nothing that I
wrote about is particularly outrageous scientifically), then we're looking at
80 years before the ocean's Ph drops to the point where a substantial amount
of molluscs simply die off because of their inability to incorporate calcium
to their shells.

The thing is, the only thing that can save us at this point is incredible
developments in energy technology (10x battery storage capacities, fusion
power, more politically acceptable nuclear) coupled with a global reduction in
per-capita consumption on a massive scale.

None of the superpowers in the world are willing to drop the current model of
the consumer society, and fusion is, thus far, just a dream, so in most ways
we're at the mercy of the climate now.

There is a very real possibility that we'll be the last generation before the
Earth becomes a profoundly different, far less ecologically diverse, desert
planet, at least as far as the tropics go.

~~~
bananacurve
Doom sells and fuels consumerism. The plane crash gets reported while
thousands land safely unmentioned. Allow me to take a contrary tack. Humans
are now in a position to find and divert a world ending impact event. The
slope of progress has never been steeper and we survived the biggest threat,
global nuclear war. We will prevail with quiet aplomb and all that will be
deemed too uninteresting to be reported.

~~~
Daishiman
...or not.

The phenomena of modern times are exponential in nature and difficult to
predict, but past success is no guarantee of future survival. Nuclear war is
_peanuts_ compared to climate change; this is an issue several orders of
magnitude worse.

~~~
bananacurve
>Nuclear war is peanuts compared to climate change; this is an issue several
orders of magnitude worse.

Hyperbole undermines veracity.

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JoeAltmaier
I live in Iowa; I haven't seen a Monarch butterfly in years. Used to be (I
grew up here) you couldn't walk outside without one landing on you.

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trekky1700
Ironically, where I live in Canada, I've been noticing more and more monarchs
(and their close cousin the viceroy) each year in my gardens and the milkweed
fields. Perhaps some change in environment/temperature is causing this. Or
maybe they just like free healthcare.

~~~
leandrod
It stands to reason that, if temperatures are rising, insects will benefit in
cold climates such as yours.

~~~
TheCraiggers
I feel the need to point out that global warming doesn't warm every area and
is calculated as a global average increase in temperature. Some areas may
actually get colder due to the environment changes, not warmer.

Interestingly enough however, Canada are one of those areas that is getting
warmer more than average.

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VladRussian2
>Another major cause is farming with Roundup, a herbicide that kills virtually
all plants except crops that are genetically modified to survive it.

now i know explicit answer why GMO is bad. You never know before-fact, yet can
always be sure that whatever good at first look thing appear it will
ultimately be turned into real bad one.

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the_honorable
God this is sad.

~~~
vincie
God this is going to get sadder.

~~~
downer96
Don't worry! Patented, genetically-modified agribusiness will save us by
giving us all the food for free!!!

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k__
"YOU’VE REACHED THE LIMIT OF 10 FREE ARTICLES A MONTH. Subscribe to continue
reading."

What the...

~~~
ajtaylor
Go to google, copy-n-paste the url into the search box, click the link from
the search results page and you're in!

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zachrose
When I was a kid I had a VHS tape—I think it was a National Geographic—that
was about Monarch Butterflies in Mexico and also Fire Eaters in Mexico City.

Does anyone else know what I'm talking about? I can't find any titles or clues
on the web.

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GotAnyMegadeth
I know that most species that have ever existed have gone extinct, but every
time I hear about a new one I can't help feeling sad. That doesn't just apply
to the cute an cuddly ones either. Insects and fish are ace.

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llamataboot
The usual suspects: monoculture and Monsanto and strange corp/govt hybrids (in
this case wrt biofuels)

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jimhefferon
Roundup-resistant. You know that's bad.

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bowerbird
by the time y'all realize how serious it is,

it's definitely going to be _way_ too late...

and when awareness hits like a ton of bricks?

humans don't act or think too well in a panic.

-bowerbird

~~~
Zerowaster
Would it be a public service if Monsanto created a roundup ready milkweed and
granted it freely to the world? Would that tide us over until Monsanto goes
extinct?

