
Pakistan says it has shot down two Indian military jets and captured a pilot - sky_nox
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47383634
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mgolawala
Having two nuclear powers shooting each other's planes out of the sky should
make the whole world nervous.

In a perverse way, it is probably a good thing that they are both nuclear
powers. The stakes are too high for them NOT to call a truce and end this
madness before it gets out of hand. It seems like most remain hopeful that
both sides will stand down after a couple of rounds of chest beating.

Knowing humanity, it is only a matter of time though, before two nuclear
powers begin an all out war with each other. India and Pakistan are definitely
on the top of the list of candidates where such a war could start.

~~~
dogma1138
It’s much worse with India and Pakistan.

No centralized command and control, little to no fail safes once the physics
package is integrated and warmed up, no second strike capability all of this
results in a doctrine of tactical deployments with field commanders holding
launch responsibilities.

This isn’t the US and Russia where they can obliterate each other
conventionally and no one would be able to fire a nuke off unless the
leadership calls for it. This could start and end with a field level commander
in some valley in Kashmir hitting the button because they can’t get their
superiors on the line and some villager claimed they’ve seen a mushroom cloud.

~~~
amriksohata
No second strike capability? Do you really think either of these countries
have no second strike capability? I think you underestimate both sides armies
and their command and control.

~~~
dogma1138
Neither side have centralized command and control, no centralized launch
control, both Indian and Pakistani nukes are practically unsafe and neither
country has a nuclear triad nor hardened launch capabilities that can survive
a first strike, the only 2nd strike any of these countries would get is due to
the sheer incompetence of their opponent.

What’s worse is that both sides also lack proper early warning systems,
reliable IFF, centralized communications, and essentially everything needs to
ensure that no one is going to make a huge mistake.

India and Pakistan are both a joke sadly for the rest of the world not a
particularly funny one, and what will start with them won’t end with them
since Russia, China and the US would get dragged into the situation.

One of the biggest criticism of the nuclear non proliferation treaty is that
it lacks the provision to deal with nations that achieve break out of full
nuclear capabilities and allow the nuclear power to provide them with guidance
and the tools to actually secure their nuclear arsenal.

To put things into perspective China only now is establishing a centralized
and fault tolerant command and control infrastructure with continuity of
government and military command, both the US and Russia have been constantly
miss identifying anything form wild geese to sounding rockets as possible
first strike candidates and you if expect India and Pakistan to handle these
issues with competency then you might need to reconsider what you define as
such.

~~~
kuhhk
Where did you get all of this information about Pakistan and India's nuclear
strategy or lack thereof? Do you have a source or evidence for what you're
claiming here?

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ishjoh
I've been following this story and it makes me very nervous that these
skirmishes are getting more serious. I'm in the US so I don't have a good
sense of how the citizens of the two countries are reacting to the conflict.

Does anybody in India or Pakistan want to share the situation on the ground?

How loudly are the the war drums banging?

How are the media framing these events?

~~~
godelmachine
I am an Indian and until yesterday, I wholeheartedly supported the strikes by
us on Pakistan mainland. Please note that the strikes were to dismantle the
terrorist infrastructure with surgical precision.

Pakistan took offense to this and have retaliated. During this retaliation,
they caught one of our fighter pilots behind their lines. This happened when 2
MiG 21's from India engaged a dozen F16's coming from Pakistan. (Not sure
about all 12 of them being F16's. There were 12 for sure. Some reports say 4
F16's , 4 JF7 Thunder and 4 Chengdu J-7)

Since then, I want the pilot to be brought back home and want retaliation to
take a back burner.

Pakistani's too support going on the offensive.

~~~
dogma1138
India has nearly 250 SU-30’s which at least they have a chance who in the
world would’ve ordered Mig 21’s to scramble against western jets after seeing
how Soviet and Arab pilots faired in them against the Israelis in Mirages, F4s
and F15/16s between 1967 and 1981?

~~~
godelmachine
If you know anything about CAP
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combat_air_patrol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combat_air_patrol)
, the fighter aircraft which is closest to the intruders responds.

In our case, it happened to be MiG 21.

Had it been Sukhoi-30, we would had shot down at least half a dozen of them.

~~~
dogma1138
I think you over estimating what the SU-30 can do; it stands a better chance
but what you are describing is unlikely given the armament of the F16s.

The question is still why are the MiG 21s even operating in a contested
environment when the opposition is much better armed when there is a better
alternative.

~~~
godelmachine
Uh well, I asked the same question yesterday.

MiG 21’s are due to be phased out of service this year. India had signed a
deal with France for Dassault Rafale, but the deal stumbled coz opposition
party accused the government of misappropriation. Things are a bit clear now
and the deal may go through soon, and delivery may take around 2 years, but’s
that’s what it is.

India has also signed a deal with Lockheed to produce F16’s indigenously. That
may also take a while.

That’s the grim situation here. Our Air Force needs to upgrade the fleet.

Apart from all this, we have created our own Tejas, which is a Light Combat
Aircraft, But it will not see action anytime soon.

I personally believe Dassault Rafale can take down F16 Fighting Falcon in a
dogfight. What do you think?

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bdz
>Mess with the best. Die like a pest!

[https://twitter.com/zartajgulwazir/status/110069112527752396...](https://twitter.com/zartajgulwazir/status/1100691125277523968/photo/1)

Crazy that a minister can write something like that. Not really surprised but
still.

~~~
mc32
I have to ask, why are the maps labeled using the Latin alphabet?

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pknerd
Indian PM Modi was(is) in trouble. He lost elections massively in 4(?) Indian
states. He is also facing Rafael planes scandal in which former French
President also revealed a few things about the scandal. Opposition parties
like INC and AAP raised voice against Modi's moves to mess within and out of
the country. Unlike Pakistan, India has more hysteria for the neighbor and
like everywhere else, using religion and Pakistan could help to gain popular
votes. The attack by India was very predictable, even Indians[1] said it 5-6
months back. What actually made it worse for Modi that Pakistan responded back
and captured their pilot thus made Modi in trouble as the opposition is asking
questions.

Despite of warmongering Media and politicians, PM of Pakistan again asked for
dialogues. Even many sane Indians are appreciating it [2]

PS: All of the Info above about India politics is based on Indian newspapers
and their politicians' statements.

[1]
[https://twitter.com/ashoswai/status/1072503110118096897?lang...](https://twitter.com/ashoswai/status/1072503110118096897?lang=en)

[2]
[https://www.facebook.com/hanif.ajari/posts/2606114666071848](https://www.facebook.com/hanif.ajari/posts/2606114666071848)

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dfilppi
Why would they announce that? What strategy is forwarded by announcing it?

~~~
NTDF9
The announcement is done to achieve two things:

1\. Posture to their own populace that they're not backing down (thus winning
political scores)

2\. Show to the rest of the world that they are leadership to reckon with,
that they don't back down cowardly.

Imagine two high-school teens with some social status fighting on the
playground. They will not back off because of social status reasons.

Only here, the teens have nukes.

~~~
pknerd
I am a Pakistani and I do agree with you here. But we have left no choice
either. Modi wants to use jingoism to win elections

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bobbydreamer
It's mostly just media and their TRP

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stunt
How any of these stuff is related to HN?

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amriksohata
India have played a diplomatic masterclass. They can claim non-military action
against a terrorist group (that is supported by ex pakistani army men which
were probably killed too). 300 in total. Whilst Pakistan took down 1 of Indias
armymen and 40 soliders via a terror attack. India also claims to have down a
Pakistani jet. Overall India look better on the international stage and have
also manned down more numbers. Pakistan really has been useless both at
diplomatic and non diplomatic methods.

