
Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure - JumpCrisscross
https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kong-protesters-keep-up-the-pressure-11561113839?mod=rsswn
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baybal2
I continue seeing military hardware being moved all around Dongguan

[https://imgur.com/a/qrsJ9af](https://imgur.com/a/qrsJ9af)

I saw a whole lot of bridge layers with troops yesterday, now that.

Occasional troop movements can't be said to be unusual around here (74th army
has bases all across the plain in between Huizhou and Guangzhou.) I used to
see the almost every day, but never before saw them on the move whole day
long.

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bpye
Has this been covered in any articles? I can't say I've seen it.

~~~
baybal2
I don't think so, but local chat groups were all abuzz about that for weeks

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627467
I sense a lot of exaggeration in hn regarding the likelihood of armed
intervention in the relationship between hk<>mainland. China has nothing to
gain from overt belligerence with its own special region which is clearly
regulated by legal framework (unlike Taiwan).

I support the cause of Hong Kongers, the general the idea of maintaining both
their political and social difference within greater China. I even accept that
some political movements in Hk exaggerate the possible threats of Mainland to
aid their political cause (considering Mainland might and their track record
of intervention in other regions - the threat narrative has factual backing).

But what is happening in HK is the democratic expression of a unequal
(politically) society and it will be workout politically and not militarily.

~~~
twblalock
If the protesters do not give the mainland government a way to back down
without saving face, then the mainland government simply cannot back down --
especially not during a trade war that is already hurting the government's
image.

I suspect the most likely outcome, if the protests continue, will be the
resignation of Carrie Lam followed by statements from Beijing about how she
screwed up. They will want to pin the blame on her. If the protesters don't go
home after that, the possibility of armed intervention will not seem so
remote.

~~~
JumpCrisscross
> _the mainland government simply cannot back down_

This is false. Beijing has many other options.

Xi's ineptitude and status as a lifetime leader does entrench China more than
it should be. But there are many options between total escalation and total
retreat.

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brendyn
Some pro-beijing opinions from a westerner:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCokRDKR89c](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCokRDKR89c)

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randyrand
It’ll be an unfair fight of China brings troops into this.

~~~
rider5
Wouldn’t guerilla warfare in the alleys and tight buildings be an absolute
nightmare

~~~
barry-cotter
Guerrilla warfare relies on willingness to abide by the laws of armed conflict
for its effectiveness. If you’re willing to kill everyone and the rebellious
population realises it you win. See Chechnya. Also, Hong Kong is a city. In
cities guerrilla warfare just plain doesn’t work. If it did the Israelis would
not have been able to occupy the Gaza Strip and West Bank for decades. This
without the willingness to disregard international law that harvesting Falun
Gong organs or keeping millions in concentration camps in Xinjiang shows the
CCP very obviously has.

Guerrilla warfare only works against weak states or strong ones that will
follow international law. The British won the Boer war. The PLA has more men
and Hong Kong is a lot smaller than South Africa or even just the Orange after
State. Hong Kong cannot win a guerrilla war.

~~~
lyrr
Total BS. Irish War of Independence is a good example of guerrilla warfare
beating the oppressor, and the British did not subscribe to 'laws of armed
conflict' in the slightest:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloody_Sunday_(1920)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloody_Sunday_\(1920\))

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_and_Tans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_and_Tans)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burning_of_Cork](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burning_of_Cork)

~~~
barry-cotter
The British had just finished WWI, they were broke and they had narrowly
avoided having a civil war over granting Irish Home Rule by virtue of WWI
breaking out[1]. If they had been willing to follow the same tactics in
Ireland as they had in South Africa only 20 years before they’d have won.
Armed irregulars cannot win against a well trained regular army that has
massive superiority in terms of training, discipline and logistics _if the
regular army is willing to kill everyone and the irregulars know that_.

People are generally not willing to die when they know defeat is certain if
life is an option. If the British had been willing to be as brutal as Cromwell
to retain Ireland they’d have won. They weren’t.

[1][https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curragh_incident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curragh_incident)

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lawrenceyan
[http://archive.is/zgwwa](http://archive.is/zgwwa)

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rasz
If Yellow Vests movement taught us anything, is that you can ignore protests
long term, even in the face of daily car fires.

~~~
dmix
At least until the next election. Where the next guy will make a ton of
promises to fix things and then once the shine of a new politician wears off
and the lack of actual results become obvious, it’s time for a new politician
to fix things!

I also wouldn’t use France for an analogy here. They protest over literally
everything. The politicians there must learn quickly how to ignore them.

This doesn’t happened often in Hong Kong, or most countries for that matter.
But most countries aren’t facing such a dire future as HK. The Yellow Jacket
people, while I support them, have no hardship comparable to facing
extradition to China for political wrongthink.

~~~
stcredzero
_I also wouldn’t use France for an analogy here. They protest over literally
everything. The politicians there must learn quickly how to ignore them._

Sounds like some sites like YouTube should take a look at how politicians in
France cope with protesters.

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tenpies
To be honest, the real protests should begin as key organizers magically
"disappear" over the next few months. I can only imagine the amount of
intelligence Beijing has collected over these last few days and what sort of
operations they have in mind.

The loss of face that they have suffered from this will not stand.

~~~
JumpCrisscross
> _The loss of face that they have suffered from this will not stand_

Beijing has limited force projection options. Rolling in the military means
inviting international sanctions and possibly military aid, if not for Hong
Kong then almost certainly for Taiwan.

The protesters are rationally responding to a ham-fisted (yet weak)
authoritarian move by Beijing. (The right move for Beijing is retreat. But
that option went off the table when Xi installed himself as leader for life.)

~~~
csomar
> Beijing has limited force projection options. Rolling in the military means
> inviting international sanctions and possibly military aid, if not for Hong
> Kong then almost certainly for Taiwan.

From my limited knowledge, the US has a military base in Taiwan. It'd be hard
to invade the country without conflict with such a base. And even a small
incident can spiral into a war with China. So no, I think Taiwan situation is
way different than Hong Kong.

~~~
JumpCrisscross
> _Taiwan situation is way different than Hong Kong_

It is. But re-integration remains a goal for Beijing. If not realistically,
then at least politically.

The more aggressive Xi has been with Hong Kong, the more Taiwan has stiffened.
Rolling tanks into Hong Kong would give Taiwan legitimate cover for being
supplied weapons. For a variety of reasons, China doesn’t want that. That, in
turn, gives the protesters leverage.

~~~
petre
Taiwan is supplied with weapons. US and Taiwanese gov't officials take Xi's
threats quite seriously. No need for legitimate cover.

[https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/us/politics/trump-
taiwan-...](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/us/politics/trump-taiwan-arms-
sale.html)

