
Novel Coronavirus: Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Est [pdf] - shawndumas
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf
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nickysielicki
> Results show that if as low as 20% of infected persons are asymptomatic and
> can transmit the virus, then even 95% quarantine efficacy will not be able
> to contain the virus.

Heavy statement coming from LANL and not some random twitter user. I am firmly
in the “very afraid” camp now.

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lm28469
Have you noticed the "if" in the sentence you quoted ?

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earenndil
Do we have statistics about how many infected people are showing symptoms?

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lm28469
No, it's pure speculation. It might be above 20, it might also be under 20.

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saltedonion
This is beyond troubling. Especially given how conservatively the Canadian
government is reacting, for the sake of political correctness. They should
implement travel ban from china and get all Canadians out of China ASAP.

Edit: the confidence interval on the Ro is incredibly high, from 2.8 to almost
11. Further, data used was the official numbers, and we know from reporting
from the ground that there is a lot of doubt in those numbers. For example,
wuhan government limiting the number of test strips to prevent the case count
from skyrocketing.

