

The Nexus One is a Failure (Fat Chance) - cschanck
http://designbygravity.wordpress.com/2010/03/21/the-nexus-one-is-a-failure-fat-chance/

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ryanhuff
While Google shouldn't be unhappy with Android's progress in the market, the
failure (to this point) in the Nexus One has everything to do with their
attempt to flip the distribution channel of consumer phones. If there is any
disappointment at Google with Android, its related to the direct to consumer
model, and not the phone itself.

Today (in the US), most consumers purchase through retailers (wireless carrier
stores and 3rd party retailers), and the phones are directly tied to specific
carriers. The Nexus One was an attempt to marginalize this model by providing
a direct channel together with a menu of carrier choices for the consumer to
pick from. So far, the sales of the Nexus One show that direct to consumer
hasn't worked. However, as the choice of carriers available for the Nexus One
is just now more plentiful, its a bit premature to judge whether the al-la-
carte carrier choice will have significant impact.

The problem I see for the Nexus One is that its now approaching middle-age for
a mobile phone, and newer phones are certainly going to emerge in the coming
months that steal the attention. So the al-la-carte carrier choice model may
be too late in coming to have an impact, and therefore may not be the force
for change in how consumers purchase phones and choose carriers.

~~~
yanw
It's only now that it's available on the other carries. They did not spend
money advertising the phone, all the advertising was on their property in a
time of year when they had available advertising space, if they wanted to
aggressively push it they would have run an ad on the Superbowl rather than
the "Parisian love" commercial and they would have sold much more, but then it
would cannibalized the sales of the Motorola Droid and Verizon wouldn't have
liked that. The N1 is the phone Google gives away in conferences and gifts to
developers, it's the phone they demo new android features on control the
fragmentation, it's now available unlocked and on most carries in the US which
is a first for any such device which is good because the carries subsidised
model is shit and should be done with.

~~~
ryanhuff
First, I'd love to have an N1. My MyTouch is woefully underpowered, and I
can't wait for my contract to end. Google, if you're reading this, send me an
N1. :)

While I agree that Google seemed hardly interested in promoting the N1, I
don't necessarily connect this to Google not having higher expectations for
the phone. There was certainly much back-channel promotional activity prior to
the N1 launch that was setting up the public to expect the N1 to be the force
to bring change to how phones are sold. Go back and look at the press
coverage. Google had ample opportunity to manage those expectations publicly,
but did not do so. Perhaps, as you said, this had to do with a desire to push
the phone covertly so as to not upset their carrier partners (Verizon). It
makes sense but is hard to know. I do believe that going into the N1 launch
they hoped more from the device than it just being a reference standard and a
give-away. If that was main intent of the phone, why even try to get it on all
carriers? I also do think that Google wants to push device manufacturers to
innovate, but with all the promise that people had in the N1, having it
flounder doesn't help Google, Android, or help push device manufacturers.

I do believe that Google had/has every intent to disrupt the mobile phone
market, and this is just the first step. Its in Google's interest to turn
carriers into dumb pipes. And the N1 is certainly the first step. However, I
can't believe that people within Google who worked on the project and
management didn't have higher expectations for sales, and that Google wouldn't
have used superior N1 sales as a means of pushing their agenda.

Despite all of the dynamics involved, the N1 hasn't sold well, and has been
more of a nudge to carriers and device manufactures than a force for change.

------
buster
To me those numbers just come down to:

    
    
      - Apple has good (the best) marketing -> many units sold
      - Motorola/Verizon starts huge ad campaign -> many units sold
      - Google had _no_ marketing -> few units sold
    

Google did _nothing_ except putting a website up with one page, no tv ads or
alike, the nexus one only appeared in a few selected blogs and tech sites 99%
of consumers don't even read.

To me it's proof how people are controlled more by marketing and advertising
then everything else and in effect controlled by media overall which is kind
of scary.

All in all, google will only look how android spreads around the world and not
on a single device.

besides: 60000 android units are shipped per day, nowadays, thats what is
important for google.

~~~
lenley
Google advertises the Nexus One fairly heavily online.

~~~
kylec
I would LOVE it if they could stop showing Nexus One ads to people (like me)
that already have them. It must be possible to read my Google account cookie
and see that I bought an N1.

~~~
enomar
Possible, yes, but worth dedicating an engineer's time?

~~~
kylec
If you consider that every Nexus One ad I see is space that could be used to
display other, more relevant ads to me and the ~200k N1 owners, I'd say that
it is worth a few hours of an engineer's time.

------
tvon
> _In their first 74 days on the market, Flurry estimates that Google has sold
> 1.14 million Nexus Ones and Droids combined. In the iPhone’s first 74 days
> on the market, it sold 1 million units._

How long people will keep comparing other phones sales to the iPhone 1G sales,
which was $500, edge-only, physically unavailable for the first 21 days, and
sold without the App Store?

Besides, the 3G and 3Gs _each_ broke 1 million in _3 days_.

If you're going to compare numbers, at least compare numbers that make sense.

------
martythemaniak
My thoughts on this from a few days ago:
[http://martin.drashkov.com/2010/03/nexus-one-as-halo-
product...](http://martin.drashkov.com/2010/03/nexus-one-as-halo-product.html)

------
btipling
I don't know about the sales, but I love my Nexus One. I never had an iphone
3Gs but the Nexus One blows away my old iPhone 3G.

~~~
towndrunk
Blows away the iPhone how?

~~~
ben1040
I can't speak for the grandparent poster here but for me, the killer
difference between the N1 and the iPhone is that the browser is far, far
faster in the N1.

The rendering speed of the N1 amazed me the first time I pulled up a page. It
also has enough RAM to keep more than one page open at a time without having
to re-load as you switch windows (as I discovered with the iPhone). This may
have been addressed somewhat in the 3GS but I only had a 3G model.

I also appreciate OTA syncing for contacts and calendars that doesn't cost me
$100/year.

The integration with Google Voice is also a plus (having it auto-switch your
voicemail over, and make all outgoing calls through your GV number).

~~~
gamble
The speed issue is mostly a shortcoming of the 3G. The 3G is so slow under
iPhone OS 3.0, I'd have a hard time recommending it to anyone. The 3GS doesn't
have the same problem, but as I don't have a N1 it's hard for me to compare
them.

------
lenley
Don't you need to compare the pricing difference between the different phones
to get a more accurate count?

Iphones at $600, $400 or $200? Droids at $200 or $500 ? Nexus ones at $200 or
$500 ?

Eyeballs are great in theory; however, if the units sold aren't as profitable
as your competition, then I'm not sure it is a good idea to get far outside
your core areas.

In addition, given the strategy and ideas for Android Google is competing more
with Microsoft then Apple in the mobile market.

