

Go for it on fourth down? Ask Coach Watson - kerben
http://www.networkworld.com/news/2011/030711-sports-analytics-conference.html?hpg1=bn

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bartonfink
I've often wondered what real impact it would have if an American football
team decided, as a rule, to never punt and always go for it on 4th down.
Current strategy highly favors punting, even in circumstances when that seems
obviously non-optimal, and I'd like to know whether we can calculate specific
scenarios for which it's better to punt or go for it. Right now the whole
thing seems very fuzzy, and I think the biggest driver is a coaching staff's
fear of failing by doing something different.

I've heard of people running simulations on Madden, for example, but I'm not
sure if that offers the sort of hooks into the AI that it would take to alter
strategy to that degree.

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kerben
Most coaches would rather play it safe, especially where the risk of turning
over the ball with favorable field position outweighs the benefit of another 4
downs...but what if the 4th down decision to punt or to 'go for it' could be
crowdsourced? Meaning fans could weigh in with their decision from the stadium
or from home - maybe this would help tip the scales in those questionable
scenarios...

