
Social Media Cracked the Case of MH17 - henrik_w
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-10-14/social-media-cracked-the-case-of-mh17
======
korisnik
Russian/rebel social media also played a role in all this, in a way that's not
mentioned in this article.

There are some official and close-to-official social media accounts that are
used by the Russian rebels to announce progress (Twitter, Facebook, VK)
usually straight from the mouths of commanders and higher ups.

When MH-17 was downed they boasted about shooting down a Ukrainian plane only
to find themselves quickly deleting all mention of it several hours later.

Those same accounts also boasted about acquiring a Buk missile launcher weeks
earlier, but those status updates were also deleted.

~~~
anc84
Are there any reputable sources or archives for this claim?

~~~
korisnik
Yes. Many news sources reported on it.

As for the actual content in question - here's an archive of a tweet of them
boasting about having Buk missile launcher, the tweet was later deleted:

[http://web.archive.org/web/20140707150151/https://twitter.co...](http://web.archive.org/web/20140707150151/https://twitter.com/dnrpress/status/483248037629018112)

Here's a screenshot of the VK account where their (now former) commander and
defense minister (and allegedly "ex" FSB member) claimed the downing of a
Ukrainian plane, later the content was deleted:

[http://i.imgur.com/fi4Zkx6.png](http://i.imgur.com/fi4Zkx6.png)

The Wikipedia article covers all that in depth:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17)

------
jacquesm
"Meanwhile, Russian officials denied the allegation. Officials of the producer
of the Buk missile, Almaz-Antey, told a news conference on Tuesday that they
had carried out their own analysis of traces found on the aircraft. They said
even if the jet was shot down by a Buk, it was an old type that is no longer
used by the Russian military.

The official also hinted that the missile was fired from a village in the
Donetsk region, where Ukrainian forces were said to have been stationed at the
time of the crash.

Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov called the report an attempt to
make a biased conclusion. He argued that the report had failed to take account
of the Russian investigations."

From:

[http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/english/news/20151014_06.html](http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/english/news/20151014_06.html)

So, even if the truth is out in the open (and given the tweets right after
hitting the plane there wasn't much doubt) there is apparently no way Russia
is going to own up to this.

~~~
07d046
The report that this article is based on discusses this and concludes:
"Alternative scenarios presented by the Russian Ministry of Defense and Almaz-
Antey are at best deeply flawed, and at worst show a deliberate attempt to
mislead using fabricated evidence."

[https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-
europe/2015/10/08/mh1...](https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-
europe/2015/10/08/mh17-the-open-source-evidence/)

~~~
psykovsky
The Bellingcat guy must like polonium tea. Brave dude.

~~~
captn3m0
For those who didn't get the reference:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Alexander_Litvine...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Alexander_Litvinenko)

~~~
TeMPOraL
We have a joke in Poland, about Russia's head of intelligence getting scolded
by Putin for creating a mess.

\- "Mówiłem, żeby mu dać tylko parę 'rad'!" ("I told you to only give him some
'advice'!")

\- "Rad, polon, co za różnica towarzyszu?" ("Radium, polonium, what's the
difference comrade?")

~~~
cema
A good one, but it only works in Polish.

------
r721
This all also shows how important (neutral) web-archiving services like
archive.org or archive.is are - they work like a free equivalent of a
notarized screenshot, as usual .png screenshots can be forged with simple
browser tricks.

------
panamafrank
There's good on book on MH17 that was published a while ago:
[http://www.amazon.co.uk/MH17-story-shooting-Malaysian-
airlin...](http://www.amazon.co.uk/MH17-story-shooting-Malaysian-
airliner/dp/151238660X/ref=tmm_pap_title_0?ie=UTF8)

It came to a similar conclusion as the dutch report, the main issue with the
dutch report is it's too little to late and the government had repeatedly
delayed publishing it while they searched for a way to indirectly accuse
Russia. The dutch report is quite weak in that it won't take the next logical
step given the evidence available and accuse Russia of ordering the downing of
MH17.

~~~
jsmeaton
They ordered the downing? That's probably not right is it? I thought the
rebels didn't realise it was a passenger plane. I don't get why Russia just
doesn't say "yep, we supplied it, but we didn't fire it, too bad so sad".
Russia aren't alone in supplying rebel forces with weapons.

~~~
danmaz74
According to most sources, the rebels didn't have the trained personnel to use
such an advanced weapon - this is no MANPAD. So, actually, it was almost for
sure one of Putin's soldiers to pull the trigger.

~~~
ethbro
> So, actually, it was almost for sure one of Putin's soldiers to pull the
> trigger.

Surely you mean the retired and very much _ex_ -Russian Army _civilians_ who
voluntarily felt it was their _civic_ duty to travel to a neighboring country
and voluntarily engage in civil war... right, comrade?

~~~
panamafrank
no very much serving russian military personnel. get your information right.

------
TeeWEE
I"m from the netherlands, and i can say that the dutch report, didnt blame
anybody, because the researchers didnt have the 'mandate'. Basically they
didnt have the right the blame russia. Its clear from all the facts that this
is from russian-sepepratist.

------
dmichulke
How does this:

 _Higgins had played an important role in surfacing the use of chemical
weapons in Syria by the regime of Bashar al-Assad_

relate to this?

"Serious Questions about the Integrity of the UN Report"

[http://web.mit.edu/sts/Analysis%20of%20the%20UN%20Report%20o...](http://web.mit.edu/sts/Analysis%20of%20the%20UN%20Report%20on%20Syria%20CW.pdf)

~~~
pp19dd
It establishes him as a reliable source for verification of civilian
casualties, even relied on and confirmed by the U.N.

From the director of strategic communications, UNAMA: "Verification of
civilian casualties is a painstaking, long and often extremely difficult and
sensitive process, involving multiple sources and sometimes conflicting data
and reports."

What he said is an understatement. The 2011 casualty numbers for aerial
strikes in Afghanistan started at 305 at end of 2011, rose to 353 by end of
2012 and then rose to 415 by end of 2014. It took four years to get to that
"415" number and this highlights that it can take years to get accurate
counts. This year's UNAMA report, due soon, is bound to raise this number.

~~~
ethbro
Four years and how many person-hours. Is an accurate count really that
important? Couldn't 300 with some statistical bounds be used?

Don't get me wrong. I think every life is sacred and a single loss is an
incredible tradgedy. But I tend to think spending effort on the living is more
useful.

~~~
pp19dd
Yes, it really is important. I don't mean that in the sense that it's
dehumanizing to replace a human being with a number and then round up or down,
but in the sense of determining things like: are civilian casualties caused by
Allied Forces' aerial strikes rising or falling over the years?

I'll argue that this IS spending effort on the living. UN report is a credible
figure, which CENTCOM can't ignore, and that hopefully will result in strategy
or tactics change that result in fewer civilian casualties.

Take a look at this infographic, and you'll hopefully spot 2011 in it at once
on the top/bottom graphs: [http://projects.voanews.com/aircraft-weapons-
released-in-afg...](http://projects.voanews.com/aircraft-weapons-released-in-
afghanistan-2010-to-2015/)

It's 2010 that appears like it has greater number of aerial strikes, but
that's not the case. Yes, it has some big spikes, but it's actually 2011 that
cumulatively has more strikes. Below is the corresponding number of civilian
victims of aerial strikes as determined by the UN. The bottom numbers, the
casualty numbers, are going down after 2011. Note that the last "15" number
came from a preliminary UN report and will be updated soon.

Back to the person-hours you mentioned. Was it worth it to keep counting 2011
statistics, four-five years later? I think yes, because otherwise it's really
easy for CENTCOM or anyone else to either miss the correct numbers, or cherry-
pick them. If anyone had only cited the 2011 UNAMA report (which was initially
reported as 305), it would imply that number of casualties remained the same
instead of rising sharply like it did.

------
Kristine1975
This makes me question Bellingcat's work somewhat:
[http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/expert-
criticizes-...](http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/expert-criticizes-
allegations-of-russian-mh17-manipulation-a-1037125.html)

~~~
yc1010
Well it is not like Russian state is not known for hiring paid trolls and
having a well oiled propaganda machine + control of media whose main duties
include seeding doubt, spreading fud, and fueling conspiracy.

~~~
Kristine1975
I don't quite understand. Are you saying that the interview in Der Spiegel is
Russian propaganda?

~~~
yc1010
We do not know if "German image forensics expert Jens Kriese" who is
interviewed by Spiegel was paid off or threatened in one form or another,
especially if he happened to come from East Germany where the Soviet backed
regime had files on everyone back before reunification.

Spiegel.de != Jens Kriese

~~~
Kristine1975
Now who's spreading FUD?

~~~
tptacek
Well, you, right? You started this comment thread by pointing out a source
that nitpicks one non-critical bit out of a whole mess of open source evidence
Bellingcat came up with, and then suggested we shouldn't trust the site
because of that.

------
kitd
One crucial point made in this article which had somehow passed me by is how
devoid of credibility the West's intelligence agencies have become. I know it
has been known for a while since Snowden, but the implications are far-
reaching.

It has come to something when social media can point the same spotlight on
whole armies doing things they would rather keep secret as it has done on
politicians doing the same.

~~~
FreakyT
Wait, what?

Western intelligence came to the conclusion pretty early on that Russian
separatists were to blame -- only Russia's intelligence still contradicts the
content of this article, insisting that Ukraine was at fault.

~~~
jacquesm
And Russia's politicians and the so-called rebels. In NL there is a ton of
activity on various newspaper and news websites trying to discredit the
report. Makes you wonder how much of that activity is due to organizations
such as this:

[http://motherboard.vice.com/read/how-professional-trolls-
hel...](http://motherboard.vice.com/read/how-professional-trolls-help-russia-
with-online-propaganda)

~~~
r721
Here's an article on this particular topic trolls:

[http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/10/13/russias-reality-
trolls-a...](http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/10/13/russias-reality-trolls-and-
the-mh17-war-of-misinformation-buk-missile/)

