
Electric Vehicles – It's Not Just About the Car - hunglee2
http://about.bnef.com/blog/liebreich-mccrone-electric-vehicles-not-just-car/
======
loeg
I think it's a good article, but misses on one of its claims.

> Another powerful driver for the uptake of electric vehicles is that they are
> a vastly superior platform for autonomous driving, infotainment, connected
> vehicle and transport-as-a-service technologies, ... And it simply makes no
> sense to have an inherently analogue power unit – vibrating, volatile-
> liquid-consuming, hot-polluting-exhaust-producing – at the heart of a fully
> digital, sensor-pervaded, solid-state-electronics-controlled system.

I don't think there's anything true about this statement, basically. There's
no reason not to put automated driving, connected vehicle, and transport-as-a-
service technologies in petrol cars (as long as it's still economical to make
and sell petrol cars).

~~~
derefr
Perhaps the point the article is aiming for there is: we've started down a
path toward cars becoming almost "System-on-a-Chip" designs, like mobile and
IoT devices currently are. But the analogue components of a car—places where
the motor is connected to analogue sensors, or analogue actuators, using
analogue (e.g. hydraulic, or rotating-shaft) signalling paths—resist this
vertical integration.

You're right that there's no reason to not put these technologies into petrol
cars. But there will be two opposing forces from that point forward: the
computerized side of the car trying to expand its digital signal-path
tentacles through the whole architecture, and the traditional petrol motor and
its associated parts resisting change-for-the-sake-of-change in favor of well-
known (analogue) engineering solutions.

In the end, I suspect the force of computerization will "win", and what we'll
end up with is every car essentially being an electric car architecturally,
just with some cars containing a petrol-fed _electric generator_ under the
hood.

Such an architecture likely _won 't_ be as fuel-efficient as current hybrid
designs are! But it will win anyway: due to the vertical integration possible
in electronic systems, it'll likely be much, much cheaper to produce, _and_
more reliable. The "core" of your car—everything that's not sensors or
motors—will be a $50 daughterboard, not even worth diagnosing when there's a
problem, just popped out and replaced. Just like phones are today.

~~~
loeg
I don't think we're remotely close to cars being SoCs, or that there's
anything about analogue components that magically resists monitoring with
sensors.

~~~
derefr
We're not close, but like I said, we're _headed_ that way. Maybe in another 20
years, say.

The analogue components of a car can, and indeed already _do_ , have out-of-
band digital monitoring. That secondary digital supervision feeds both your
dashboard, and the pin-outs repair shops connect to. It even feeds things like
fuel-efficiency microcontrollers that, in their roundabout way, send commands
back to the motor.

But the architecture of even current electric cars goes far beyond this:
electric cars don't _monitor_ the analogue components with digital sensors,
they simply have ADCs connected right to the sensors, and take the now-digital
signal from the sensor and feed it to the car's CPU, where that signal—that
_data_ , now—can produce many separate outputs.

Surprisingly (given the last 30 years of robotics), the key advantage of
electric cars over petrol ones is that the petrol architecture is inherently
subsumptive—digital "cognitive" actions overriding lower-level, directly-
connected analogue "reflex" actions—while the electric architecture can
centralize data-flow. You don't have to worry about the driver attempting to
move the car with the parking brake enabled; the information of "gas pedal
depressed" goes through the "brain" of the device, where it also knows that
the "parking brake engaged" line is high, so its desired-torque output should
just stay at zero.

~~~
majormajor
> You don't have to worry about the driver attempting to move the car with the
> parking brake enabled; the information of "gas pedal depressed" goes through
> the "brain" of the device, where it also knows that the "parking brake
> engaged" line is high, so its desired-torque output should just stay at
> zero.

You can do all of this centralization in an ICE car. Electronic throttles and
switches aren't new. (Though the design I've seen for this case is "oh, driver
pushed the pedal, let's disengage the parking brake since they probably just
forgot about it.")

------
dragontamer
This article is alarmist and seems to be very poor analysis on the part of
Bloomberg.

I don't see car repair shops going away. The only group that may die is Jiffy
Lube and good riddance to them. Last time I checked... electric cars need
their tires rotated (and all tire maintenance associated with that: Tire
Repair, Tire balancing, etc. etc.).

Brakes still need to be replaced: which means the brake fluid industry needs
to remain, along with brakes and rotors need to be continuously produced.

Electric cars still need coolant flush every few years. Both for coolant
reasons and anti-corrosion reasons. Windshield wipers will crack. Windshields
will continue to be replaced. Bodywork needs to repair damage from accidents.

So hell, even the lowest tier, crap repair shop (Jiffy Lube) will still be
around 30 years from now. Jiffy Lube's current work is:

[https://www.jiffylube.com/](https://www.jiffylube.com/)

* Oil Changes -- the only thing that Electric Cars don't need

* Brakes

* Fluids (coolant / brake fluid. I guess transmission fluid might go away)

* Tires

~~~
taf2
I've driven my model s for 2 1/2 years and not yet had any need for service.
Single peddle driving almost completely eliminates the need for brakes. I
probably am due to rotate my tires. The AC works great and I don't think I've
refilled the windshield wiper fluid yet. Related to the brakes I almost never
notice dirty rims on a Tesla do you?

If model s is any indicator to the future of EV car reliability than basically
that leaves jiffylube maybe handling:

* tires * fluids

There would be huge drop in need for brake maintenance. I have no idea where
their profit center sits, but I can't imagine it's only in tires and fluids?

~~~
dragontamer
> I've driven my model s for 2 1/2 years and not yet had any need for service.

My car (2014 Ford Focus) is 2 and 1/2 years old. Here are the list of things
I've done to my car:

* Three oil changes and tire rotations. The tires should be rotated every 7500 miles or so, regardless of the vehicle.

* New Windshield Wipers -- Rubber degrades when exposed to the sun over long periods of time. I had to replace my windshield wipers recently.

* Air Conditioning Filter -- Pollen gets in there. Replaced at 20,000 miles (a few months ago).

* Windshield Wiper fluid -- I top it off every month or so.

* Three punctured tires -- Why are there so many screws on the road? Uggghhhhh. I check tire-pressure weekly and top it off at a gas-station to 35 PSI.

The __only __thing the Tesla gets rid of, compared to my car, are the three
oil changes, which happen whenever I rotate my tires anyway. (I do oil changes
/ tire rotations myself. Very easy job)

The cost of full-synthetic oil + filter is $35, spent every 7500 miles for the
oil change. Its basically negligible.

My previous car was a Nissan Maxima with 150,000+ miles on it. My family
changed its brakes twice in its lifetime (hand-me-down from my father as I
left for college). I think people are severely overestimating the amount of
times brakes need to be changed.

~~~
loeg
Tangential, but how do you stand to check tire pressure so frequently? Just
taking the dust caps off is enough of a burden I don't do it frequently.

~~~
dragontamer
Tire Pressure takes no more than 1-minute to check.

What do you do when you're waiting for your gas to fill up? Might as well be
productive, right? Plus, air-pump stations are all over gas stations. If
you're getting your gas filled up, might as well check tire pressure while
you're at it.

Leave a pressure gauge in your car.

~~~
fudged71
>What do you do when you're waiting for your gas to fill up?

Many gas stations around me don't allow you to walk away from the pump, they
have removed the locking latch on the handle that lets you do that. If there
ever is a latch, I use that time to wash the windows.

------
gwbas1c
Basically, I think this article underestimates EV adoption. I think we'll be
at about 100% EVs by 2030. (Just my opinion.)

Why? There are only three obstacles, but they are quickly getting eliminated.

1: Battery cost for long-range EVs is quickly dropping.

2: Charging time is also improving. We really only need to get down to about
10-15 minutes for a quick charge. That's enough time to pee, poop, and get a
snack during a long road trip.

3: Charging ubiquity is also improving. For people who can't charge at home,
businesses like grocery stores, malls, and restaurants provide a great
opportunity to charge without making an extra trip to the gas station.

~~~
erikpukinskis
I mostly agree (100% is obviously wrong, people still buy records and
renaissance clothing) but I think self driving is the biggest reason. Self
driving will make ride service cheaper per mile than car ownership. That will
make car ownership a luxury activity. Since electric cars will be cheaper per
mile, the self driving car sharing fleets will be all electric.

Essentially, anyone who is price conscious at all will be on electric, which
means 90%+ of the market.

------
jseliger
#7, WRT ebikes, is particularly interesting: there have been a rash of ebike
Kickstarters (see e.g. [https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/hongquan/karmic-
kyoto](https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/hongquan/karmic-kyoto)) and
startups recently, and if the bikes get cheap enough they could really change
a lot of people's attitudes towards biking and bike infrastructure. They might
also make bike shares more attractive; Seattle is very hilly and its bike
share may go electric: [http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-
news/politics/leading-bi...](http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-
news/politics/leading-bike-share-bidder-proposes-all-electric-fleet-for-
seattle/).

My girlfriend bought an electric bike four years ago, but that was a little
too early, and when we moved to a place with stairs the electric bike had to
go. But the person who bought it on Craigslist loves it and rides it to drop
her kid off at daycare, then to work.

If you haven't ridden a pedal-assist electric bike, you should stop by your
local bike shop and try one out. They're quite remarkable, but in a way that
is difficult to appreciate over text. I personally don't need one because I
ride on flat terrain, so I prefer a Novarra Gotham
([https://www.rei.com/product/888337/novara-gotham-
bike-2016);](https://www.rei.com/product/888337/novara-gotham-bike-2016\);)
still, the appeal is there.

~~~
lordnacho
The natural taker for this is Boris Bikes in London. There's already loads of
stands for ordinary bikes, perhaps they could be reconfigured for electric?

Seems to work quite nicely already with locking and registration.

~~~
Symbiote
Copenhagen's city hire bikes are electric, and charge from the docking
stations.

I haven't used one, and I don't understand why they are electric - the city is
as flat as a pancake anyway.

------
endswapper
This was a good post because the car thing got my attention, but it turned to
have a much broader wake of analysis behind it.

What do you think about the idea that broad-based, multi-sector automation
will remove some of the essential challenges in life, and ultimately weaken
cognitive abilities?

My logic is that as we increase our conveniences, our requirement for physical
exertion diminishes and the average body mass grows. So, will the same thing
happen to our minds - without the need to exercise them will their performance
diminish?

If so, will that create a class of knowers and non-knowers, and if so who is
responsible for non-knowers?

I read a lot of desperation in the comments here and elsewhere while at the
same time believing generally that we live in a golden age
([https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12373014](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12373014)).

~~~
pm90
We already have a lot of automation and it has hardly lead to a weakening of
cognitive abilities. Washing machines, dishwashers etc. On the contrary, it
has increased productivity, allowing more people to dedicate their lives
towards medical research, specifically cognitive research.

Its true that future humans may end up as overweight, wheelchair ridden as
depicted in Wall-E. But It can also go the other way. Technology has also made
fitness to be very popular, for instance. We won't know until it comes to
pass. Evolution has generally favored fitness though (e.g. endorphins are
released during exercise) so it seems unlikely that the obesity epidemic will
spread everywhere or be so complete.

~~~
merb
hm... it could also lead to something like Idiocracy. I mean the more
technology you have the less you care about old things, like "how to build a
building". Just look at how much worse the whole building industry gotten. The
try to be cheaper which also comes with the cost of less trained people.

~~~
rm_-rf_slash
How has the building industry gotten worse? What metrics can be used to
evaluate it?

~~~
nkoren
The Empire State building was completed in 1931. It had 103 floors, took 13
months from start to finish, and cost $637M (adjusted for inflation).

83 years later, in the same city, the Freedom Tower was completed. It had one
more floor, but took 102 months to build and cost $4B.

Obviously that's only two data points, but it's broadly representative of the
general trend. Our capacity to build infrastructure has declined dramatically
over the past century. Obviously we're still able to do it, but the costs and
timescales have increased by orders of magnitude.

~~~
jamiek88
How many deaths and serious injuries in comparison?

~~~
gwright
> According to official records, five people died while constructing the
> Empire State Building. One was struck by a truck, another fell down an
> elevator shaft, a third was killed by explosives, a fourth struck by a hoist
> and the fifth fell from scaffolding.

On the other hand it doesn't seem like the Freedom Tower construction had a
very good record either (but I couldn't find any info on deaths):

> In fact, The News found at least 81 incidents involving dangerous work
> conditions at the site since construction began in 2003. Through this year,
> at least 42 of those incidents involved workers falling from a height far
> enough to seriously injure themselves.

------
aurizon
This is what they call an 'inflection point'. The traditional car makers are
trying to adapt, but they have so much union baggage in terms of work
practices, wages and pensions given too early and in excess that are
underwater in terms of their supportability in terms of the interest yield of
the underlying monies, which may well force them into bankruptcy. As they
start gas car sales aill fall off a cliff as people choose to wait for an
electric car instead of buying their next gas based car. Will they try to take
over Tesla? I think this recent Solar City takeover is part of a plan to
interdict any potential takeover, and all Musk has to do is ask his car owners
to buy 100 shares or more and bid up the prices and deny those votes to block
it.

~~~
joosters
So progress requires throwing away workers' rights?

~~~
sokoloff
To the extent that "workers' rights" as expressed in union contracts make
legacy car companies unable to compete, then yes, we might have to allow non-
competitive companies to be crushed by competitive companies.

------
awjr
I'm in a lucky position to be reviewing a series of e-bikes over the coming
weeks/months. This is particularly relevant as I live in Bath, UK with 7
rather impressive hills.

The current model I'm putting through its paces a mid-drive Bosch based bike
[http://www.ebco-ebikes.co.uk/products-page/ebco/ebco-
ucl-70/](http://www.ebco-ebikes.co.uk/products-page/ebco/ebco-ucl-70/)

I am 20st 8 or 130kg. It does rather well although I failed to get it up this
hill [https://scontent-
lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/t31.0-8/14086433_101541...](https://scontent-
lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/t31.0-8/14086433_10154191952101281_910221094967031248_o.jpg)
near Avoncliff (Winsley Hill).

I've come to the conclusion that e-bikes are not just a bicycle with motor. It
is not cycling in the sense of sport cycling or leisure cycling. It is a
transformative form of transport that offer you the freedom and the range you
need within an urban (and lesser extent rural) environment to just simply get
from A to B while being connected to your local community.

I've been lending the bike out to various people whenever I have stopped. The
Deliveroo (takeaway delivered by bike) couriers were absolutely stunned how
different it is. There isn't a single person that hasn't tried the bike out
that hasn't been absolutely stunned at what it can do. It really is nothing
like cycling.

I think the biggest impact for me is that I don't worry about hills any more.
It also gives you significant acceleration from a standing start. You are
usually up to 16mph within a 4-5 pedals. This is really important when
vehicular cycling. I feel a lot more confident in traffic on one of these.

Everyone seems to be talking about self-driving cars. Seriously, at an urban
level, do not discount just how important the e-bike is. It's the most
efficient and fastest way you can go from A to B in a city.

One other thing, don't buy a cheap bike. The mid-drive systems are expensive
but they are the best on the market. Hub motors are just not as good.

I can only suggest you try one of them. Find a local stockist and go borrow
one for an hour.

Of note my wife has one with a throttle. She has a bad knee. She refused a
mobility scooter, but a lovely blue bike with a basket on the front looks good
and she can peddle as much as she is physically able to, and then let the bike
take her home.

E-bikes are stunning. Really really amazingly good modes of transport.

After testing the one today on a 40mile round trip, I will state, next time
I'm taking my normal gravel bike. For leisure they are just not as demanding
physically so not as much fun for that. But that's me. For getting around the
city of Bath, I will always use the e-bike. Arrive fresh and relaxed. I feel I
can easily explore the city now without having to worry about hills.

~~~
alex_hirner
Where can the reviews be read and do they involve other vendors too?

~~~
awjr
[http://ebiketips.co.uk/](http://ebiketips.co.uk/)

Yes I will be getting different vendors and styles. The one I have is the
first one, so I'm working with the editor on the style of my review next week.

Should be similar to the "Justin says" "Dave says" sections of this article
[http://ebiketips.co.uk/content/reviews/electric-
bikes/ebco-u...](http://ebiketips.co.uk/content/reviews/electric-bikes/ebco-
ucr-10-402)

------
sunstone
"... oil prices -- currently around $80 per barrel but dropping fast" ?? I'm
guessing that was a typo and he meant $50 per barrel.

