
Bitbookie: Parimutuel Bitcoin Sports Betting - jmtame
http://bitbook.ie
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hackerboos
Damn. Owner of Bitbookie.com here.

A 'no-compete' clause in my current contract meant I couldn't work on
BitBookie.com - although I was thinking a simple exchange similar to Betfair.
What you've done looks interesting.

Good luck!

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bosco
@hackerboos, I am looking to build something somewhat similar and looking to
get some advice. Would you be willing to help?

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hackerboos
Sure just email me (see profile).

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scottcanoni
In case you were curious how they make money, here is BitBookie's answer:

"It's too early to monetize, but when we do, it will probably be through ads
or affiliate programs.

I think that not charging a house take will have a positive effect on the
quality of the site. Most sites do have a house take and that creates an
incentive for them to be very pushy about driving bets. It's annoying and
distracting. It's like being in a real casino!"

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tzs
Aren't ads and affiliate programs hard to make money on unless one i very
pushy with them?

I'd expect making money via a house take would require much less pushiness,
because that involves making money off of something that people are coming to
the site to do (gamble).

With ads, one is making money off of something no one is coming to the site
for.

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TheBiv
I used to have an online gambling website, and it is very lucrative to be a
publisher. Mainly bc the model is different than traditional affiliate
programs. The typical mode is that if you drive someone to sign up, you get a
flat amount ($50-150) and a percentage of that users' LIFETIME input into the
website (typically 8-10%)

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the_cat_kittles
Is this vulnerable to a scenario where they have a bunch of coins in escrow
and then they run off with them? If, for instance, the betting pools for world
cup start filling up, whats to stop them from doing that?

edit: how in the world is this a dumb question / comment

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fatbat
Where did you see about an escrow? Or are you asking hypothetical? Since the
site does not address this issue, there is nothing to stop the site from up
and leaving with all the coins. With a mixer, they can easily disappear too.

There is however a phone number listed here,
[https://bitbook.ie/contact](https://bitbook.ie/contact)

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the_cat_kittles
as I understand it, the bets go to holding pools (presumably controlled by
bitbook.ie) until the events outcome is determined, at which point they are
dispersed accordingly, maybe I got that wrong

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adsfasdf23f23f
Am I correct to understand that it is not possible to determine the payout for
winning at the time of placing a bet, since the proportion of bets could
change? Payouts are determined when the book closes, not based on the ratio
when the bet is placed?

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hanasu
Correct, they use parimutuel betting, where all bets are placed in a group pot
and the winners are paid their original stake plus some portion of the losers'
stakes. This means that bitbookie doesn't have to set betting lines
(probabilities) for all the events, which is something that takes a lot of
skill and effort. Essentially it's easier for those who are not familiar with
sports betting to say 'I pick team A to win' as opposed to 'I think team B is
going to lose, but not by more than 7.5 points, so I should bet on them even
though they're the worse team" that is a common play in spread betting.

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glomph
A problem with this is it gives a huge incentive to bet as late as possible.
You know where the money is you have more information about the event and so
your bet can be better placed. Unfortunately this will mean there isn't any
point betting later either as people will not have bet earlier.

Bitbet attempts to solve this by giving a higher weight to earlier bets. Not
sure how well that works but the site seems to be used.

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jessaustin
Suggestion: horse racing, or at least the big race this weekend. California
Chrome could win the Triple Crown! (That hasn't happened since 1978.) I expect
even a simple CC vs. the field event would see a lot of bets...

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scottcanoni
I agree. Why isn't the Belmont Stakes listed on this site?

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aklarfeld
This is really awesome.

I'm really interested to see how the 'no cut' ideology helps circumvent the
stupidly strict USA gambling laws.

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hanasu
It probably doesn't, but since they're using bitcoin it circumvents the way
that the US government enforces things like the UIGEA - pressure on
banks/payment processors to not accept this class of funds. Bovada is a site
that offers both sports betting and poker to US customers, but has to do some
tricky things in regards to payment processing. Full Tilt Poker was shut down
and their funds seized for this reason, circumventing the payments process by
claiming that players bought bogus items instead of funds on the poker site.

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malbs
How long does it take to go from wanting to place a bet, to your money being
in the pool? My knowledge of bitcoin is lacking but I was of the understanding
that there is some time before the transaction/transfer is verified? Thus if
you wanted to submit a wager close to closing time, you would probably be
unable to?

IS there trend data available? Can see see where the public money is going, or
is it simply a case of monitoring the blockchain for transactions going to the
wallets (pools) you're interested in?

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adsfasdf23f23f
I placed some bets yesterday before but near the closing time. They were shown
as included in the pool but after the event they were considered rejected. I
would think that the blockchain would include some information that would
allow it to be determined that it was sent before the closing time.

Interestingly, my rejected bets for the losing team were not returned, but
instead paid out to the winner. I'm informed the site owner already.

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gojomo
Parimutuel has simplification benefits for the pool-operator and casual
recreational bettor... but is of little interest to big-money/smart-money.

Why not? Unless they're the last money in, they might not be getting the odds
they expect... and thus might even have their money on the 'wrong side' of the
bet, given the final odds.

That could limit the interest and liquidity here.

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glomph
Yeah. There is a strong incentive for anyone using this site to wait as long
as possible. Unfortunately that probably results in a kind of feedback loop
preventing the site from being used.

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jessaustin
Clicking through to the World Cup page, I note a serious deficiency in this
"parimutuel" system: only _two_ entries per event, even when it's "wins the
World Cup"! It certainly explains why the pools are so tiny. Expect to see
_great_ arbitrage opportunities among the myriad different pools. Regular
bettors get screwed by this.

EDIT: I'm not wrong about this:
[https://bitbook.ie/make_bets/abf97e24-ded0-42bb-832d-669e275...](https://bitbook.ie/make_bets/abf97e24-ded0-42bb-832d-669e275cfdc8)

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gojomo
There is a deficiency - but it'd be hard to exploit at great scale, because as
you bet the advantage goes away, and then later bettors might leave your stake
with bad odds. Only being the 'last mover' in all the pools allows definite
arbitrage.

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jessaustin
_Only being the 'last mover' in all the pools allows definite arbitrage._

If so, now we know the actual profit model of this business.

Actually there would still be value in getting one's arbitraged wagers in just
before the window closes: at this moment the general public would be unlikely
to drive one out of the money and the site operator would have no incentive to
do so.

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gojomo
Actually, assuming that bets are respected up through one atomic blockchain
block before pool closing, the operator _can 't_ ensure they're last-to-move,
because of the mechanics of Bitcoin-transactions-into-blocks. All bets are
public, and all bets into the 'last block' before the pool closes would be
equally valid. (Bitbook.ie _could_ use some other 'we saw your transaction in
time, even though it didn't make a block' approach... but that would be so
open to abuse and customer complaint I doubt it'd fly.)

So this again presents more problems for potential arbitrageurs as soon as
there's more than one last-minute "sniper": not only are they unsure if their
bet will be minted into a block in time, they can't be sure N others following
the same strategy don't try the same thing, making the final odds awful.

To the extent the operator has any discretion, it's just to make a final
ruling on whether a block arrived "soon enough", or is the first block for
which bets are a "no-go". There's a very, very slight abuse potential in such
discretion: their decisions are publicly observable, and biased/arbitrary
decisions would result in a lot of griping and lost credibility.

On the other hand, large mining pools _would_ have significant power to
control the 'last money in', in the blocks just before an event closes. (If
they see imbalanced odds they like, they could blockade other bets, and only
allow their own confederates' late money in, and only to the extent that the
odds remain favorable.)

Maybe _that 's_ the real business model: kickbacks from side-betting mining
pools!

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jessaustin
_...they can 't be sure N others following the same strategy don't try the
same thing, making the final odds awful._

Sure, but this is a challenge with parimutuel wagering in general. It's why
the lines at the window are longest with one minute to post: there is more
information about odds closer to the end.

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nkuttler
Apparently there is zero information about who runs this site. Yes, it looks
nice, and seems to be a clever idea. But personally I wouldn't trust them with
my coins.

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jessaustin
There's nothing to stop one from starting with small bets, and then ramping up
as one grows more trusting. Since there would be no reason for a wager to move
from an entry-specific address before the event finished, one could even
verify that one's coins haven't been spent on something else before they
should. Actually we can look at all events in history and confirm that payouts
balance with bets, if we want.

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trevorcreech
The problem with this approach is that the scam sites start with proper
payouts until they can build enough trust to run off with a large take.

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jessaustin
This could be a concern while the site has only operated for a short period.
During that period, keep your wagers small. After the business is seen to be
profitable, it becomes something of a golden goose, and this threat would be
limited to rogue employees rather than the firm itself. Protecting against
rogue employees could still be an interesting problem.

Admittedly, the concern we're discussing is one reason why I _wouldn 't_ mind
if this firm charged a _really_ small distribution percentage.

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LargeWu
I like the idea, but I'm not sure I would get anywhere near this as a US
citizen. I can easily envision a federal prosecutor trying to make a name for
himself coming up with an argument that it violates the Wire Act, and since it
is parimutuel, then everybody who placed a bet also _accepted_ a bet.

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simonmales
The site is missing QR codes and 'bitcoin:' protocol prefix which would make
it wallet friendly.

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simonmales
Also for the sake of trust, I would like to see the historical payouts.

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adsfasdf23f23f
Historical payouts are available via the ledger (bitbook.ie/ledger)

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goeric
Does this work if you send from Coinbase? They don't let choose a specific
sender address.

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adsfasdf23f23f
I've been using it for micro-bets and got one refund for a bet made too late.
Didn't win any, so I can't say with any certainty.

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gesman
InGenius!

