
Stanford ramps up coronavirus testing to help other hospitals - chmaynard
https://scopeblog.stanford.edu/2020/03/18/stanford-ramps-up-coronavirus-testing-to-help-other-hospitals/
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infinity0
Lots of people in these coronavirus threads have been confusing "confirmed
cases" as reported by various countries, vs the actual number of cases, and
using this to propose various conspiracy theories about governments
downplaying or suppressing information about the situation.

Here is an interesting analysis including analyses done by Chinese health
officials to estimate the actual number of cases in the past on a given day,
based on symptom data collected from confirmed cases.

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCa0JXEwDEk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCa0JXEwDEk)

Other countries should follow suit.

Chart:

[https://miro.medium.com/max/5376/1*r-ddYhoUtP_se6x-NOEinA.pn...](https://miro.medium.com/max/5376/1*r-ddYhoUtP_se6x-NOEinA.png)

Commentary:

[https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-
peop...](https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-
die-f4d3d9cd99ca)

> This is one of the most important charts.

> It shows in orange bars the daily official number of cases in the Hubei
> province: How many people were diagnosed that day.

> The grey bars show the true daily coronavirus cases. The Chinese CDC found
> these by asking patients during the diagnostic when their symptoms started.

To be precise, even the grey bars are an underestimate of the true cases in
reality, since they would exclude unreported cases as some people were turned
away from hospitals. (In the UK they are advising people with non-severe
symptoms to stay at home, where they can't be tested.)

It's encouraging that a retrospective analysis confirmed that the Wuhan
lockdown had the intended effect however, to reduce the true spread of cases.

~~~
zamfi
> It's encouraging that a retrospective analysis confirmed that the Wuhan
> lockdown had the intended effect however, to reduce the true spread of
> cases.

If Wuhan is a guide, we should know starting Saturday if the lockdown in Italy
is also having an effect.

~~~
infinity0
It takes a few days to confirm a trend so I'd wait until late next week before
drawing any conclusions.

