
Trump’s Tough Talk on NAFTA Suggests Pact’s Demise Is Imminent - TuringNYC
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/11/business/economy/nafta-trump.html
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igravious
Whoops. Somebody should tell the Brits.

[http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/10/britain-could-
joi...](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/10/britain-could-join-nafta-
trade-alliance-us-canada-mexico-post/)

“Britain could join trans-Atlantic trade alliance bigger than the EU if there
is no deal on Brexit”

(Article only _two_ days old at time of writing!)

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pjc50
Brexiteers have been pushing nonsense like this for ages, usually under the
delusion that Britain and America would be equal partners.

Meanwhile we're facing another Trump related trade dispute with Canada that
affects the UK: [http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-
ireland-41592474](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-41592474)

What's not stated in all of this is that the collapse of a major employer plus
other Brexit fallout plus the collapse of devolved government in NI could
result in a resumption of terrorist violence.

~~~
igravious
I don't think there's any appetite for a return to violence. Besides – as you
probably know – the former IRA's political arm, Sinn Féin, is in power north
and south of the border.

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bryanlarsen
Prediction: this is going to kill a lot of American jobs short term. It may or
may not be good for America long-term, but in the short term it's a huge
disruption, and in disruptions jobs get lost quickly and gained slowly.

Example: right now, an American firm builds widgets in Mexico with Canadian
resources and sells to all three countries. In the future, the American firm
builds in America and sells only to Americans. A Cana-Mexican firm builds in
Mexico with Canadian resources and sells to Cana-Mex. You can argue which is
better for America & Cana-Mex. But there's no doubt that the transitional
period will suck for all.

In the transitional period the Cana-Mexican firm hasn't been founded yet, nor
the American factory built, so the pre-demise scenario continues. But now
prices double for everybody due to increased tariffs, non-tariff barriers and
currency fluctuation. So sales drop through the floor or are lost to Chinese
competitors. Lose-lose-lose.

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TuringNYC
I know when we hear about NAFTA we usually think of industrials and
manufacturing. Curious if anyone has a good analysis of NAFTA and the
(obvious) first-order benefits it presents to the information economy -- since
the US is a large net positive on that front.

~~~
danmaz74
Yes, I expect that if Trump continues on his protectionist direction in some
industries, there will be consequences in other ones. Why should the rest of
the Western world allow Amazon, Google, Hollywood etc. to dominate their
respective fields without tariffs or restrictions if the USA becomes
protectionist where it suits Trump?

~~~
readittwice
The EU and its countries are actively trying to tax Facebook, Google, Apple,
Amazon, etc. more than today for some time now. It's just not so easy. But
that doesn't have anything to do with Trump, this started well before most
people in Europe even knew him.

~~~
danmaz74
That's because those companies pay _lower_ taxes than local companies. The
real beef here isn't with the companies themselves, but with some smaller
member states that steal the tax base of other bigger member states.

~~~
readittwice
You are right, that's what e.g. the verdict against Ireland/Apple was about.
But this is only part of the story. The verdict in this case was that Ireland
let Apple pay lower taxes compared to other local companies. Some other EU-
countries want to tackle a different thing: Apple (just to give an example)
not paying taxes on the profit they make in each country individually but only
in Ireland (in the case of Apple) for all (EU-)countries combined.

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blowski
Trump’s negotiating tactics do genuinely seem quite clever, despite me not
liking the man at all or supporting the aims of the negotiation.

He seems to combine the “madman” theory with “good cop, bad cop” to produce a
“crazy leader, sensible leader” tactic. It’s probably a very effective
strategy, if all you’re interested in, is optimising the short-term, very
narrow, very selfish interests of a part of the US population. It’s a strategy
I’d like to try in a board game.

~~~
theyregreat
The crybully is similar but he rotates through all three phases of the Karpman
Drama Triangle often in order to play hero. My hypothesis is many sociopathic
leaders of different stripes use/d similar tactics to hit people’s emotions
and bypass their rationality. It is what it is, and many people are seduced
when times seem rough that someone has a panacea or a plan to make everything
better. I wish people focused more on manipulating _him_ into doing what
actually needs to happen and less on useless demonizing or lionizing.
Polarization is gonna kill more people by not tackling huge problems like
locked-in climate change... the world needs CDR, solar shade or whatever
scales as fast as possible, “moon-mission”-style.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karpman_drama_triangle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karpman_drama_triangle)

~~~
mercer
> I wish people focused more on manipulating him into doing what actually
> needs to happen and less on useless demonizing or lionizing.

While I'm hope to be wrong and corrected about this, the impression I get is
that this is exactly what's already happening. Except it's the 'bad guys'
doing what they feel needs to be done.

