

Lottery Math 101 - yarapavan
http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/lottery-math-101-801/

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electromagnetic
I wonder if you created a giant supercomputer to do the statistically right
bet on thousands of lotteries around the world if you would even break even or
not.

I mean is betting the most statistically lucky numbers give you a better
chance of winning than blind luck, or is the lottery just seriously futile.

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dschobel
huh? it's a random draw and each drawing is an independent event.

The "statistically right bet" is zero.

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electromagnetic
I was proposing a thought experiment: create a program that bets the lowest
frequency numbers and see if it is even capable of breaking even.

Right now the Ontario Pick 3 has a frequency deviation of 1/20th from norm, in
that the number occurrences have been >5% off of a 1/10th share between the 10
numbers. Would betting the three most statistically likely to occur numbers
change your lucky enough above random probability.

To put it even simpler: after 100 coin flips and 57H/43T would betting T give
you greater odds than betting H, or are you equally as likely to win as if you
flipped a coin yourself to decide your bet?

~~~
dschobel
"Would betting the three most statistically likely to occur numbers change
your lucky enough above random probability."

No. It would not. The drawings are statistically independent events. Same
thing for your coin flip example. If after 100 flips of a coin you have
99H/1T, the probability of the next flip being H or T is still 0.5 (assuming
your coin is fair).

