
The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say - sciurus
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/coronavirus-restrictions-us.html
======
drinchev
Back in time ( end of January ) when I heard the news about Wuhan and what
happened there I was a bit worried, but always positive. When the virus spread
in Italy ( I live in Berlin ) I was daily asking "Why don't they stop people
from / to Italy?", "Why don't they go and help Italy?", "Where is a plan for
handling the situation?", "Why nobody knows >how< to handle the situation,
don't they see how China managed?"

All in all the answers were : "They don't want to kill the economy, that's why
no restrictions.", "We are democracy, that's why no restrictions."

Look at the situation now. Killed economy, unstoppable virus and nobody knows
for how long. They can't contain it anymore. What we do is flattening the
curve, not eliminating the thread.

Come on. These politicians, IMO should be investigated for committing crime
agains humanity. I can't believe that in 2020 there is no such thing as
emergency procedure / plan in case of ... well ... emergency. I tend to think
that all government decision makers make a "daily" for what should happen
today and then wait for tomorrow, with no further planning.

That's just irresponsible.

~~~
ensiferum
Proactively shutting things down and restricting freedoms are politically
impossible to implement. There's no incentive for any single politician to do
anything like this because if it actually worked there'd be no visibility to
the general public and thus nobody would understand what they actually did.

It's like the proverbial secret goverment agency that stops a bomb from going
off and nobody knows what they did.

In politics this mean that the general public would only see the downsides of
such measures and not the gains. This would not get a single politician re-
elected.

Therefore in terms of politics it's much better and safer to be reactive only
rather than proactive. Later speech can include statements "we could not have
possibly known", "there was no indication that...", "it was a complete
surprise...", "we acted as quickly as possbile..."

~~~
lb0
Not true, because there will be enough "test groups" due to this thinking
already (and I believe now even the last one realized that this will now go
everyhwere).

China locked down around ~400 known infections, in terms of spread we will
soon learn what it means to have only done similar but much less strict
lockdown at 1000, 4000, 8000 infections, actually it is all a number game, and
the numbers were sharp enough and visible for everyone during February
already.. we will pay a lot four our stupidity and "politically impossible",
we said this since start of the year about Chinas measures, but what was
politically impossible will now take longer and almost reach same strictness
levels here..

------
m23khan
There is one harsh reality I see in all this: World screwed itself by being
over reliant on China. At least Canada did. Big time. Big percentage of things
here in Canada is 'Made in China' \- yup, you name it -- Masks, gloves, and
items such as syringes, etc. heck even plastic cutlery and tooth brushes are
made in China.

Now that Chinese economy got shutdown and people in Canada went into panic
mode, we have severely decimated supply of essential items such as hand
sanitizers, masks, gloves, etc even for the health workers!

I know this pandemic nor future pandemic/wars would change anything because
humans are just collateral (and sometimes even treated as adversary) for the
mega corporations, but my wish is each Country (or atleast Geographical
region) learn to become self sufficient when it comes to making items such as
Clothing, medical and sanitary supplies, etc. This may mean that in places
like the West where Corporations have to hire local workers at higher cost to
produce the same clothing items being produced by $1/hr workers in Bangladesh,
but so be it -- in times of emergency, you need local production of items to
save you.

No need to put so much reliance on countries like China (manufacturing,
assembly, electronics, clothing, plastics), Germany (Manufacturing,
machinery), South Korea (Electronics, appliances), India (textile, assembly),
Mexico (assembly) and Bangladesh (textile).

~~~
Daishiman
That's really not an issue at all.

Asian countries that managed this crisis correctly took steps to prepare,
which mostly means having quick access to testing, and stockpiling materials.

Any Western government had in its power the ability to invoke urgent measure
to redirect production for face masks and equipment. That equipment could have
been bought beforehand if the governments had listened to the advice of its
own experts.

------
danmaz74
I'm an Italian living in the UK, so I've been following both the stats and the
debate in Italy (and elsewhere) very closely. My conclusion is that whoever
thinks that this problem can be not stopped, but contained to a manageable
level without very strict steps is in for a bad surprise. And, given the
exponential nature of initial growth, the earlier these steps are adopted, the
less harsh they need to be.

~~~
throwaway4787
If that's any reassurance to you they _are_ observing an inflection in Italy,
potentially a sign that the lockdowns have their desired effects. We just need
to hold on for a couple weeks before it curves back as in China. And that's
discounting the ongoing trials for treatments that could solve this quicker
than expected.

~~~
danmaz74
That's my point - it took pretty harsh measures before we started getting any
signs of the spread slowing down (and we'll need a few more days to verify
that those signs are actually reliable).

------
jtdev
I find it incredibly hard to believe that China has stopped community spread
within the country - I hope I’m wrong, but I think we’re getting PRC
propaganda when we hear about “all new cases we’re imported”.

~~~
asdfasgasdgasdg
WHO seems to believe. We would have a prior expectation that a strong lockdown
would reduce transmission to below 1 per case. China has a strong lockdown.
And it would be extremely hard for them to hide it plus massive downside risk
and limited upside. So why don't you believe them.

~~~
aww_dang
"The reason for the WHO’s failure to properly act to contain the outbreak, and
its repeated issuing of inaccurate and bad advice, is not merely the result of
incompetence. Rather, the malfeasance is the direct result of the CCP
deliberately buying out WHO’s leadership, with tragic consequences."

[https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/17/u-s-funds-world-
health-...](https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/17/u-s-funds-world-health-
organization-that-boot-licks-china-with-deadly-results/)

"The coronavirus crisis is raising questions over China's relationship with
the World Health Organization"

[https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/14/asia/coronavirus-who-
chin...](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/14/asia/coronavirus-who-china-intl-
hnk/index.html)

"Coronavirus: How WHO Corruption Helped It Spread"
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwFTZawOc9k](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwFTZawOc9k)

~~~
asdfasgasdgasdg
Yeah I'm not really buying what these articles are selling. The world had
plenty of time to act and opted not to. This all seems more like an attempt to
avoid blame than a credible analysis of the situation. It's a far better story
for the western politicians that the evil Chinese didn't give enough warning
than to acknowledge that plenty of warning was given and none was heeded until
the developing crisis was already realized in western countries.

~~~
mardifoufs
It's hard to prepare when the WHO [0] was still telling that the virus
probably doesn't spread between humans as little as 2 months ago. Of course
the western governments should've reacted earlier, but the margin wasn't that
big. The WHO were the observers on the ground and they chose to play down the
whole thing to ease china.

[0]
[https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152?s=20](https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152?s=20)

~~~
lonelappde
2 months ago China had already announced human to human transmission.

WHO isn't a an omniscient god. They don't have any information that regional
authorities don't give them. If Chinese government lies, that's the Chinese
government's crime.

People got sick at a fish market in December. It was reported up to government
as a potentially novel illness by Dec 31.

A mere 2 weeks later on Jan 14 there _was_ no clear evidence of transmission
yet, because viruses take time to transmit and incubate and sicken and get
reported to authorities. On Jan 20 Chinese authorities announced human
transmission.

[https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/timeline-china-
corona...](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/timeline-china-coronavirus-
spread-200126061554884.html)

------
MiguelVieira
It feels like Europe and the US only have a few options:

    
    
      * Let the virus run its course and accept a huge death count.
      * Continue the lockdowns for months, strangling the economy.
      * Do what's in this article and allow life and the economy to return to normal.
      * Hope for a miracle.

Am I missing something?

~~~
dbbk
I believe the UK just ordered millions of antibody tests, that will tell you
if you've previously had the virus. If we can confirm that people who
previously had it are immune, we should be able to selectively let those back
into normal society a lot faster.

That's my understanding, I may be wrong.

~~~
iso1631
Which creates a two-tier society. Those with antibodies get to go about their
business, go out to cafes and pubs, get hired for jobs which antibodyless
people can't do.

Those who don't have the antibodies are stuck under house arrest, so decide
"ahh screw it, I'm going to go and get infected".

~~~
bitcharmer
Would you rather keep the immune people at home to satisfy some odd urge of
"social justice"?

~~~
Dahoon
What next? Juden signs on houses?

------
dzdt
I do not believe the US nor any of its states have made it a goal to stop the
virus. Please give me links if this is wrong. Everything I have seen from
government sources talks about "flatten the curve" or "slow the spread" or
similar. The end result of any flatten the curve effort is 40-80% of the
population is infected until the combination of herd immunity and social
distancing stops the spread.

Please can anyone link to a government source saying that stopping the virus
is a goal? I would love to be wrong.

~~~
mrdrozdov
Look up the press conference by Cuomo.

~~~
amalter
I’ve watched every one of Cuomo’s press conferences. He message is always
clear - that we are trying to not overwhelm the health system.

He doesn’t say “flatten the curve” because he believes words matter and tries
to communicate to avoid panic (Hence his refusal to call “Stay Indoors” as
“Shelter in Place”)

But the medical side of the state government - along with their action - has
been consistently flatten the curve.

No one but the highly delusional believes we can roll back community spread.

~~~
scruple
> call “Stay Indoors” as “Shelter in Place”

This piece of this story is utterly fascinating to me right now. It's like
half the population has a completely different interpretation of the phrase
shelter-in-place. I feel like it's entirely too vague and has led to a
situation where, in my neck of the woods in Orange county, CA, people are
using the ambiguous language to justify going about their daily lives. Where,
to me, the order is very clear: stay in or near your home. The beach isn't in
or near my home. It isn't in or near the majority of our homes. And neither is
the dog park, or the county or state parks, or the national forest near us,
etc.. And, yet, on social media, it's very easy to find people complaining
about how surprised they were when they went to the beach, or where ever, and
it was totally packed with people. It's making me question my sanity that we
can have such wildly different interpretations of this situation.

~~~
lancesells
I had to venture out Friday in NYC and parks and streets were filled with
people. Lines to get cocktails going down the street. Basketball games. No one
wearing masks. For the first time since it started I started to be worried
about my family and myself.

I think "Stay In Your Home" or "Stay the F __k Home " are needed as daily SMS
messages and voicemails.

~~~
mancerayder
Because the American conception of "gently tell people to do the right thing,
and their good ole spirit will volunteer to do the right thing" is false.

In France, there are drones flying around blasting speakers at high decibals
for people to stay in their homes. There are fines, and repeat offenders can
face six months of jail.

In NYC (I live in NYC), we've denigrated the police for the past few years as
"fascist" \-- ask any average 25 year old you meet in a coffeeshop or Brooklyn
bar -- there are protests over arresting people who do illegal things. Police
enforcement of simple crimes is considered "a waste of police resources" at
best and at worst "systemic racism in action." If you talk about enforcement
of subway vagrancy and crimes like smoking on the platform, urinating and so
forth, you'll hear a lecture about redlining and some other academic topics
from history, you'll be reminded of stop and frisk, quotas and so on. So there
you have it, the Left made it hard to sustain order. But the Right doesn't get
away scot-free: every Trump supporter I talk to says, "It's my Constitutional
Right to do what I want!"

So there you have it. Both Right and Left united in favor of individualism and
against common good.

~~~
Dahoon
That's what happens when both the left and right is actually right wing.

------
cracker_jacks
Which experts are proposing the way forward is actually a total lockdown? This
article is distorting what experts are actually saying. This virus will not go
away, it needs to be managed. Please consider the following articles of what
experts are ACTUALLY saying:

[https://medium.com/@AmeshAA/covid19-a-path-
forward-868d5e8dc...](https://medium.com/@AmeshAA/covid19-a-path-
forward-868d5e8dc53) [https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/coronavirus-us-must-
confront...](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/coronavirus-us-must-confront-how-
were-going-to-live-with-it-expert-says.html)

~~~
lower
> Which experts are proposing the way forward is actually a total lockdown?

The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, for example:
[https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-
college/medicine/s...](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-
college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-
modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)

In Germany, the Society for Epidemiology has a similar analysis with similar
conclusions:
[https://www.dgepi.de/assets/Stellungnahmen/Stellungnahme2020...](https://www.dgepi.de/assets/Stellungnahmen/Stellungnahme2020Corona_DGEpi-21032020.pdf)

~~~
Mvandenbergh
It is important to understand the context and timing of the Imperial paper. It
was produced as part of UK government decision making in the days leading up
to the 12th of March in order to make a binary decision between to immediate
alternatives: Mitigate and flatten the curve or suppress and crush the curve.

It was well understood by the authors that a permanent lockdown was not
possible and that there would need to be a step 2. They did some modelling of
possible step 2 (proposing alternating lockdowns with relaxations for example)
but did not go into detail on other options such as enhanced contact tracing,
widespread testing, or other options.

~~~
lower
Right, both papers are mainly what should be done right now. They both
conclude that a hard lockdown is the only realistic option that won't overload
the health system in the next few months. It's not so clear what to do
afterwards.

------
austincheney
Stopping the virus takes a negative growth rate, such that the rate of
recovery exceeds the number of new cases. Like the article said some East
Asian countries are proof it can be done, but it requires great deliberate
inconvenience.

------
jpxw
People in the UK aren’t taking the advice of the government. Many think a full
lockdown is coming, possibly today.

------
neonate
_Some_ experts say. From the article:

"Americans must be persuaded to stay home, they said, and a system put in
place to isolate the infected and care for them outside the home. Travel
restrictions should be extended, they said; productions of masks and
ventilators must be accelerated, and testing problems must be resolved. But
tactics like forced isolation, school closings and pervasive GPS tracking of
patients brought more divided reactions."

------
nikolay
I hear many keep saying "stay positive"! Wishful thinking and optimism
typically lead to shorter lifespans and the reasoning is optimists
underestimate threats, ignore symptoms, don't prepare to handle threats. Not
to panic, but be more on the pessimistic side, save lives - including your
own! We have an excellent saying here in America, which the young do not
follow (especially in Flordia!) these days: "Better safe than sorry!"

------
dis-sys
There is no way to stop the virus in the US - 10 million undocumented
immigrants in the US can not afford to sit at home and watch TV for 3 months,
they can't help you to do your fancy contact tracing to expose their families
and friends who are also undocumented. They can't afford to be tested or
treated as none of them will be on the government hands out list.

How could you stop the coronavirus when 10 million REAL people are totally
ignored from all these measures? That is the size of the Wuhan population.

~~~
Proziam
I see you're being downvoted, but I don't sense any malice in your post.
You're also not incorrect in your assessment, but your scope is a bit limited.
There are far more than just undocumented immigrants who can't afford to stay
home and will have to do whatever they can do to keep life going for
themselves. This is true everywhere, not just the US.

The last to comply won't be holding out due to malice or ignorance, but
necessity.

~~~
aquaticsunset
But the OP is misguided and targeting a beaten down population. What
difference does it make if you’re making $7.25/hr as a natural born citizen or
an undocumented immigrant? Either way this thing is hurting you hard, and
people are going to act like people.

It’s really, really misinformed to think that undocumented immigrants are the
only ones suffering, and that “good natural born Americans” can all afford to
sit inside for a few weeks.

~~~
Proziam
People are quick to assume the intent of another. The quickest way to make the
point that a non-compliant, but non-malicious population exists is to give an
example. OP gave one, but now people seem to assume that because of the
(heavily politicized) example given that they've "targeted" a group.
Overreactive responses make it difficult to have a serious discussion about
all sorts of issues.

OP also hasn't said anything even remotely akin to:

> undocumented immigrants are the only ones suffering, and that “good natural-
> born Americans” can all afford to sit inside for a few weeks.

It seems intellectually dishonest to make such lofty assumptions based on a
post the length of a tweet or two. Imagine if instead of assuming ill-intent
we just said 'hey he's right there are people that can't afford to comply...we
should consider that in our policy to the benefit of everyone involved...'

The world would be a better place.

------
baybal2
Mass testing, and quarantine is very simple.

Tell me why what some countries in Africa managed to do to reverse trends in
their countries early, cannot be done in the West.

Instead, the West went to listen to bizarre "management" theories, over
something clear, and obvious.

~~~
9nGQluzmnq3M
Did you mean Asia? The jury is still very much out on Africa, but it's not
looking great at the moment:

[https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236760-we-dont-know-
wh...](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236760-we-dont-know-why-so-few-
covid-19-cases-have-been-reported-in-africa/)

------
tines
In other words, it won't be stopped.

~~~
mythrwy
Until it runs it's course or we have a vaccine. But we do have some measure of
control on the timing of this.

------
oefrha
If there’s anything the current debacles in Europe and the U.S. has taught us,
it’s that selfish and/or irrational jerks abound, and asking nicely doesn’t
work at all.

~~~
bitcharmer
This. I'm terrified by the number of utter idiots violating the restrictions
and putting so many vulnerable people at risk. Or those people recorded while
spreading their spit all over a train cart. Where is this coming from? What is
those people's end game? It can't be due to stupidity; there must be some
malice in this behaviour as well, right?

~~~
meddlepal
I don't think there is any malice, it's just ignorance. We're in uncharted
territory here and people have no idea how to behave. Not to mention humans
are social creatures and it's very much against our instincts to be shut-ins
that don't interact.

~~~
h_r
What... what?! You think that

| ...those people recorded while spreading their spit all over a train cart.

are simply acting in ignorance because they have no idea how to behave?

~~~
meddlepal
Oh I misunderstood, yes some people vwant too see the world burn or
alternatively they don't understand the gravity of the situation and the
potential harm to themselves or others.

------
vanniv
Amazing how the NYT always proposes more authoritarianism as the solution to
every problem.

------
ShorsHammer
South Korea has virtually no new active cases daily, only 100 deaths after 4
months of exposure and hasn't brought in any laws even close the authoritarian
stuff that is going on elsewhere across the planet in the name of
covid-19/sars-cov-2

Buyer beware. Undoing laws and measures is a lot harder than enacting them in
a "crisis".

 _" Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary
Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." _ \- Benjamin Franklin

~~~
goblin89
In Seoul, multiple emergency alerts asking people to keep 2 meter distance and
to cancel trips and meetings were pushed to mobile phones for the first time
yesterday morning. Pedestrian streets in popular districts are still fairly
bustling tonight, even if less crowded given the season.

~~~
ShorsHammer
Pushing mobile alerts is what any country with half a clue should be doing. I
get regular ones telling me to wash my hands and avoid contact, it's
comforting to see them everyfew days.

~~~
goblin89
In South Korea they were a bit overused I think. In addition to hand washing
reminders, each phone is getting up to 2 loud but not-really-quite-actionable
alerts per day, which report on 2–3 new cases discovered in nearby city
districts.

(But then the government uses the same alerts to notify about strong winds and
elevated pollution levels, so it’s more or less a given.)

The ones from yesterday were the first to ask people to limit their mobility.

~~~
lostmsu
I don't know. That actually sounds like a good option to trace/warn contacts.

