
Ask HN: Germans and Spaniards – Why the dramatic difference in death rates? - pwned1
https:&#x2F;&#x2F;coronavirus.jhu.edu&#x2F;map.html<p>Germany and Spain have roughly the same number of cases. Yet deaths in Germany are at 25 and in Spain they are 20x that 600. What is the difference?
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rurban
The German expert who worked on site in the German epicenter has explained
that phenomenon that they went aggressively after all contacts, very early on.
Italy and Spain did not.

German seniors also don't live at home with their families, and it hadn't hit
their homes yet. Once it does and it's pretty close, the rates will jump up.
The health system itself is not better than in Italy or Spain.

I think it's also geography. All the major epicenters are on the same
latitude. Germany is more northern.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_parallel_north](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_parallel_north)

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lumberjack
At-risk people in Germany are getting infected at a slower rate due to their
living arrangements. For example, it is maybe more typical for Spanish people
to have their grandparents living with them, or maybe old Spanish people live
near big cities whereas in Germany they live in smaller towns. Germany
population density is lower across the whole country so that definitely helps.

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test_not_ok
I'd say that there are several reasons:

\- Spain's government celebrated the 8 of May parade against recommendations
of EU and Madrid regional government [1]. In 1918 Philadelphia suffered from
this mistake [2].

\- Spains's government and journalists downplayed the fears to the COVID-19 of
people during weeks while Italy was having more than 1k contagions. They also
encouraged people to get out, go to bars, etc. Because, "it's only the flu"
[3].

\- Madrid Barajas Airport has the biggest flow of air traffic in country.

\- Spain is depopulated but there are a great concentration of people living
in Madrid [4] and Madrid hospitals have collapsed (they have a death each 16
minutes [5])

[1]
[https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2020/03/14/5e6bf851fc6c83330c8...](https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2020/03/14/5e6bf851fc6c83330c8b46c7.html)

[2]
[https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/15/us/philadelphia-1918-span...](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/15/us/philadelphia-1918-spanish-
flu-trnd/index.html)

[3] [https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20200225/lorenzo-mila-tve-
desde...](https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20200225/lorenzo-mila-tve-desde-italia-
hablando-del-coronavirus-se-extiende-mas-alarmismo-datos/2004471.shtml)

[4]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Spain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Spain)

[5] [https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-18/lunes-un-muerto-
cada-...](https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-18/lunes-un-muerto-
cada-16-minutos-en-los-hospitales-de-madrid.html)

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wareotie
Don't know for Germany but 50% of the cases in Spain are in Madrid so
hospitals are collapsed. That info is not in the link.

I would say we need more information per country to understand differences.

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randie63
Some user has pointed out in some other corona HN post, that Italy has a very
high antibiotic's resistance. And corona does not kill directly after all in
most cases. Its the bacteria and other illness you might have, which gets you.

[https://atlas.ecdc.europa.eu/public/index.aspx?Dataset=27&He...](https://atlas.ecdc.europa.eu/public/index.aspx?Dataset=27&HealthTopic=4)

~~~
randie63
Spain does not have that high resistance. But still wanted to point out this
info

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rasz
Propaganda, deaths are recorded under other medical conditions. The same
reason German national TV broadcaster does this
[https://twitter.com/ThomasKycia/status/1239671652755091456](https://twitter.com/ThomasKycia/status/1239671652755091456)
Translation: Bad Poland breaking union of EU, very next day strong Germany
limiting access for the good of our people.

keine Grenzen, unless there is 3M distribution center full of face masks on
our territory, then
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-09/germany-f...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-09/germany-
faces-backlash-from-neighbors-over-mask-export-ban)

~~~
liqu0rice
Are you able to provide any evidence for your claim? You would know that how?

~~~
Glawen
I also suspect that germany is not attributing death to coronavirus when the
dead had other disease like cancer. But i lack source as well.

It's just that the number are so off with other countries that it is too good
to be true, like the dieselgate.

~~~
dirkt
This rumor is being debunked e.g. here:

[https://old.reddit.com/r/germany/comments/fkp75t/coronavirus...](https://old.reddit.com/r/germany/comments/fkp75t/coronavirus_in_germany_question_about_statistics/)

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jsilence
Have no source, only heard the story that in Italy (or Spain, or both)
deceased who have not been testet for Covid-19 before their death, are being
tested afterwards. This is not being done in Germany. Thus the difference in
reported deaths from Covid-19.

Not sure whether this is true. Would be grateful to get a reference to an
actual source to verify or falsify this.

------
Someone
[https://apnews.com/ad9a6af47c3b55fd83080c9168afaaf4](https://apnews.com/ad9a6af47c3b55fd83080c9168afaaf4)
claims it is a matter of testing more people, including younger ones, and
using the outcomes of those tests to quarantine patients.

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joefarish
Spain probably has more cases but is doing less testing.

~~~
yulaow
South korea is doing far more tests than Germany and still has 3+x the deaths

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keith___talent
Awesome Conjecture! A load of experts in this thread.

