
Vela Incident - pietroglyph
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vela_incident
======
ColanR
From the introduction:

> Today, most independent researchers believe that the 1979 [Vela Incident]
> flash was caused by a nuclear explosion — perhaps an undeclared nuclear test
> carried out by South Africa and Israel.

~~~
SiempreViernes
Yeah, I think this is the best clue of how the sputh africans tested their
nukes.

A weird nuclear policy that one: build and test in secrecy, never tell anyone
you have them unless things are really dire, and only then do a public reveal.
Explain that one with deterrance theory

~~~
ben_w
That sounds a bit like Israel’s policy — Although officially Israel’s policy
is one of deliberate ambiguity, if they have nukes then they are doing exactly
what you just said; and if they don’t, then presumably the scientist that they
imprisoned for revealing the existence of the nuclear program was a stooge
designed to make them look scary without any of the cost and complexity of
actually bothering to make any nukes of their own.

~~~
dogma1138
He wasn’t a scientist he was a low level technician.

He didn’t even finish high school completely (no diploma), and dropped out of
his engineering course at uni.

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mordechai_Vanunu](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mordechai_Vanunu)

While he did revealed some information a lot of the technical details he
talked about during his early interviews made absolutely no sense.

He was imprisoned on the basis of revealing classified information and taking
photographs of a sensitive site.

Whether Israel has actual assembled weapons or not, they are a breakout state
they have 2 reactors one at Dimona one at Soreq and even if in the 60’s and
70’s they didn’t had the knowledge to build nukes considering they took in
nearly 2M Russian Jews and their family members they probably could’ve gained
that capability from that immigration since the late 80’s to early 90’s.

Israel can also potentially posses a nuclear Triad however for Israel nukes
are only really useful as a deterrent against a conventional threat as due to
their size MAD will not work for them against any of their possible opponents
in the region.

MAD also requires that everyone in the equation will be sane and held
accountable, if there is an Islamist coup in say Pakistan or if a regional
theocratic regime gets nukes it’s not clear how MAD would work even if the
geographical and population sizes weren’t that different.

~~~
mieseratte
MAD still applies to Israel if they can field a sufficient submarine force to
retaliate against a first-strike, unless their opposition can also field
enough hunter-killer submarines to perform a full decapitation with surety.

Also worth pointing out, while a theocratic takeover of a state like Pakistan
would be infinitely problematic, (probably) particularly for non-
proliferation, MAD still applies unless the takeover is a flat-out doomsday
cult. Problematic as I may find an Islamist theocracy as a Westerner, they're
not insane, but simply of very different cultural belief. Should anyone want
to live to see tomorrow, and or allow their offspring to do so then MAD
applies.

------
trollied
Oh, wow. Didn’t realise that GPS satellites were equipped with Bhangmeters,
used to detect flashes caused by nuclear detonations.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhangmeter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhangmeter)

------
jonathanlydall
I am South African but only born in ‘82 so was unaware of this incident.

However, I recall an incident of a South African Airways crash in ‘87 [1]
which unsubstantiated theories stated were carrying nuclear materials or
something.

[1]:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_African_Airways_Flight_2...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_African_Airways_Flight_295)

~~~
yannis
I was in RSA in the early 80s. There were a lot of RSA ships doing research in
the area at the time. As was the custom the issued commemorating envelopes
with special postmarks at the time
[https://www.picclickimg.com/d/l400/pict/323741168155_/Antarc...](https://www.picclickimg.com/d/l400/pict/323741168155_/Antarctica-
RSA-South-Africa-cover-79-IV-24.jpg) they were all postmarked "Neutron
Research". At the time the rumour was that they were developing "a neutron
bomb". This and the red mercury
incidents[https://mg.co.za/article/1995-01-20-sadf-linked-to-red-
mercu...](https://mg.co.za/article/1995-01-20-sadf-linked-to-red-mercury) left
no doubt in my mind that the tests took place.

~~~
Tuna-Fish
Red mercury is not a thing. Or rather, it's a very pervasive repeated hoax
that plenty of people have fallen for.

~~~
yannis
Agreed, however the murders were real.

------
dmurray
How did South Africa and Israel end up as bedfellows here? From a common love
of apartheid? Apart from that, they seemed to be in quite different
geopolitical positions.

~~~
mieseratte
Perhaps ironically, Israel condemned apartheid South Africa in the UN as part
of a motion on the topic in the 60s.

With that said, they had early, good relations as SA recognized Israel very
early on, with a Prime Minister in support of Zionism, and this remained so
for decades.

[0] -
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–South_Africa_relation...](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–South_Africa_relations#Early_Israeli_relations_with_apartheid_South_Africa)

------
eccbits
Ehm why is this newsworthy? It was repeatedly shown to be nothing..

~~~
NotSammyHagar
Can you give pointers to the external information showing where it's
repeatedly shown to be nothing? The wikipedia description sound very
plausible.

~~~
ars
Did we read the same article in wikipedia? It quotes many many sources saying
it was not a nuclear test.

The quotes that it was a test were from journalists, and from people who
"heard" about it. None from actual scientists who studied it.

~~~
krisoft
Very good question. The article I'm reading says "Today, most independent
researchers believe that the 1979 flash was caused by a nuclear explosion"
What does yours say?

~~~
ars
Read the details that discuss the available evidence. Not just the summary at
the top which is not supported by the rest of the article.

~~~
Buge
It sounds like early on the US government said it was inconclusive in order to
not offend South Africa and Israel. But more recently, people have been saying
it was a nuclear test.

> A December 2016 report by William Burr and Avner Cohen of George Washington
> University's National Security Archive and Nuclear Proliferation
> International History Project noted that the debate over the South Atlantic
> flash has shifted over the last few years, on the side of a man-made weapon
> test.[1] The National Security Archive briefing concluded:

>> A Central Intelligence Agency-sponsored panel of well-respected scientists
concluded that a mysterious flash detected by a U.S. Vela satellite over the
South Atlantic on the night of 22 September 1979 was likely a nuclear test.

> The newly released research and subsequent report was largely based upon
> recently declassified documents in files at the National Archives of Gerard
> C. Smith, a former Ambassador and special envoy on nuclear nonproliferation
> during Jimmy Carter's presidency.[1][60][5] Smith had once said: "I was
> never able to break free from the thought that the event was a joint
> operation between Israel and South Africa." The documents cited a June 1980
> U.S. State Department report where Defense Intelligence Agency Vice Director
> Jack Varona had said the ensuing U.S. investigation was a "white wash, due
> to political considerations" based on "flimsy evidence". He added that the
> "weight of the evidence pointed towards a nuclear event" and cited
> hydroacoustic data analyzed by the Naval Research Laboratory. The data, he
> suggested, involved "signals ... unique to nuclear shots in a maritime
> environment" and emanating from the area of "shallow waters between Prince
> Edward and Marion Islands, south-east of South Africa".[1][5][60]

> In 2018, a new study made the case for the double flash being a nuclear
> test.[6][7][61][62]

