
You Don’t Need a Master Plan, You Just Need to Start - silvaben
https://medium.com/startup-grind/you-dont-need-a-master-plan-you-just-need-to-start-9a3ec0455866#.n2c6xn1hg
======
lordnacho
Maybe worth explicitly mentioning that the very fact that you have a trillion
dollar plan could be negative to your chances of achieving even 1K/month.

The pie in the sky is tasty, and everyone wants to sink their teeth in it.
Moon shots will naturally attract a certain type of individual, and the
incentives will favour big gambles. Think of it as an internal land grab or
gold rush.

I was in a place where we got the gold fever. People were getting insanely
unrealistic ideas about the value of the idea. We applied to YC with it, and
people questioned whether we were giving away too much (one them said "who are
they" which is both funny and not funny at once). This is at the stage where
we had 1 competent programmer, zero customers (but lots of connections), and a
barely working prototype with fantasies that people wanted added. Funnily
enough, nothing came of it, except my old colleagues still think I was trying
to defraud them.

Slow and steady is less glamourous. I'm not surprised the anecdote is about a
small family humbly trying to put something together. And you don't get
fantasists thinking they need a piece of this trillion dollars.

~~~
danieltillett
The easist person to con is always yourself.

------
mehrdada
> _Startups are overdosing on ambition these days_

> _Not every billion dollar business starts with a billion dollar idea. Not
> everything unfundable by VCs is unworthy of doing._

It's interesting the author is being a VC is understandably blinded by the
bubble that never reports on such businesses. The vast majority of businesses
created in the world, _i.e._ almost all small businesses, are exactly that.
It's been done before and it's being done now, in large quantities. It's just
so common that people don't feel writing medium posts about it and you don't
tend to call them _startups_ per se without the VC-funding and fast growth
factor[1]. If you restrict the definition of a startup to this, then almost
_by definition_ you need such ambitious visions.

[1]:
[http://www.paulgraham.com/growth.html](http://www.paulgraham.com/growth.html)

I remember Joel Spolsky talked at Startup School a few years back on this
subject and he was spot on[2].

[2]:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPJf8KrvJXU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPJf8KrvJXU)

~~~
hugs
It looks like you haven't been following Bryce close enough. He put his money
(and PR) where his mouth is and started Indie.vc.

------
dandare
> Startups are overdosing on ambition these days

I was turned down recently by several _EARLY STAGE_ investors on the basis
that the Total Addressable Market (TAM) of our first target niche is only in
the hundreds of millions while they only invest in billion dollar
opportunities (ideally you should also have a proven product market fit or be
profitable or both, you know, early stage). Trying to explain, that this is
only the first niche we want to target and once we will have users we can
experiment with ways to monetize them, didn't help either.

~~~
sage76
Exactly this. We have revenues and repeat users and yet, we got rejected
everywhere. Some places want a "world domination vision", others (even
supposedly great investors) are just blindly running after buzzwords
("Revenues? Profits? Pass.... AI/Machine learning based hyperlocal customer
engagement platform TAKE MY MONEY PLEASE RIGHT NOW")

There was only one investor who was honest with us and said "Look, don't ask
investors anything. We don't know. If it works, it's a good idea."

------
dsacco
I left this blog post deeply curious about that family's business. I'd like to
know how they set out to earn an extra few thousand each month and
accidentally stepped into an "empire" that will gross $100M in the span of a
few years, without venture capital.

~~~
coldtea
> _I 'd like to know how they set out to earn an extra few thousand each month
> and accidentally stepped into an "empire" that will gross $100M in the span
> of a few years, without venture capital._

That happens a lot more than 1 billion exits happen, and even outside the
startup space.

There are tons of 10-100M companies in all kinds of sectors, even in local
fast-food chains...

~~~
mehwoot
No kidding- a single supermarket can gross $100m a year

~~~
nostrademons
Net margins are only 1.5%, though, according to the industry trade group [1].
With median sales of about $25M/year, that's under $400K profit for running a
supermarket. It's a decent living, but before giving up programming to buy a
supermarket, consider that you can get to $400K/year income a lot quicker with
less risk than you can grow a business with 1.5% margins to $25M/year.

Business is about profit, not revenues. $100M revenue is considered a huge
number in software because it's assumed that your marginal costs are close to
zero, and so that's basically pure profit. $100M in many other industries
gives you a decent living in exchange for a lot of work. Hell, I could easily
build a billion-dollar business selling $100 bills for $99.99, but I'd lose
$100K on it.

[1] [http://www.fmi.org/research-resources/supermarket-
facts](http://www.fmi.org/research-resources/supermarket-facts)

~~~
jmnicolas
> [...] $400K profit [...] a decent living [...]

You startup people always make me think I live in the third world :-)

~~~
ryanSrich
With 700 square foot shacks being sold for >$1m $400k won't take you far.

~~~
rmason
Who says that your supermarket needs to be in the Valley? In Michigan you can
live like a member of the elite on $400K a year. In Detroit you could live
like a king.

~~~
ryanSrich
No one, but this thread is talking about silicon valley so...

------
silvaben
> Starting something in the hopes of making an extra $1,000 a month is every
> bit as worthy as trying to colonize Mars. Start small and give your
> ambitions room to grow.

This was my favorite takeaway from this blog post. Rob Walling presents a
similar idea in his book "Start Small, Stay Small.

~~~
__krris
But most of us want to start small and grow big.

~~~
nathan_f77
You're probably right, and that's the only way a VC will make any returns. But
there's also a large group of us on HN who would be very content to bootstrap
our own projects and retire with a relatively small amount of passive income.

------
sduff
_Starting something in the hopes of making an extra $1,000 a month is every
bit as worthy as trying to colonize Mars. Start small and give your ambitions
room to grow._

I suppose smaller targets are just as applicable.

------
lucideer
Slight pedantic nitpick on the article title: should be "You Don't Need A
Master _Goal_ ". You still need a plan, but it just needn't be to aim for
Mars.

~~~
danblick
I believe the term "master plan" here is an allusion to Elon Musk's "master
plans", which were ideas for billions dollar businesses.

~ [https://techcrunch.com/gallery/dr-elon/](https://techcrunch.com/gallery/dr-
elon/)

------
pasta
I think the book 'Incredible Secret Money Machine'[1] by Don Lancaster is one
of the best startup books related to this.

For example this strategy: 'strategy secret - have: 0.834 employees'.

Of course this book might be the half truth, but imho it has a lot of value
for startups.

[1]
[http://www.tinaja.com/ebooks/ismm.pdf](http://www.tinaja.com/ebooks/ismm.pdf)
(10.4 MB)

------
callmeed
Bryce is one of my favorite Twitter follows from the VC world. He's one of the
few who seem _down-to-earth_ for lack of a better phrase. He's also one of the
few who has ever responded to a random email I've sent (I live 4 hours south
of SF and have zero connections to that world).

------
ImTalking
I agree. A person has no clue what will happen until one is in the 'game'.
Sitting on the sidelines writing a plan is a futile exercise. However, once
you are in the game then plans are important.

------
mSparks
actually. imho. the most important thing you need is the motivation to just
keep on going with the plan even when you only have $50 left in the bank and
everyone thinks you are crazy.

Pure cash isnt enough of a motivation for those kind of hurdles. And they will
come.

~~~
scott_karana
Isn't that just survivorship bias? Almost all startups fail.

~~~
mSparks
Not really survivorship bias? Although if you can be clearer what you mean.

IMHO "Almost all startups fail" \- not because they don't have a good plan, a
great idea, or "fail to start"

They fail because they don't have the motivation (or capability) to push
through the inevitable hard times and come out the other side strong and
profitable.

It takes a very special dedication to take an idea from start to profit.

And it seems most "Master Plans" are to cobble together a good idea then sell
it for millions to a greater fool.

------
graycat
So, the subject of the OP is doing a successful startup.

On that, three of my thoughts are:

First, nearly all first, wild guesses for a successful startup are doomed to
fail.

Why? (A) Nearly no one wants the product/service, say, the _results_ , even
for free.

(B) Lots of people like the results, but nearly all of the those people regard
the price as too high.

We can call getting past both (A) and (B) as finding _product-market_ fit.

(C) Okay, but, still, say, for a battery with 10 times the currently best in
energy in KWh per kg of weight, we don't know how to do that. Similarly for
some software that is as _intelligent_ as a human in all respects.

Second, to have some idea that a project won't fail due to (A)-(C) or anything
else serious can easily think of, one should have some good plans and, of
course, check the plans as carefully as possible.

Then we can formulate a

Saying: If you fail to have a good plan, then you have a good plan to fail.

Lesson One: So, to avoid problems such as (A)-(C) and to improve chances of
success, IMHO good planning is important.

Third, startups that are successful enough to make money for venture
capitalists (VCs) and their limited partners (LPs -- the people the VCs get
the money from) are rare.

How do we know this? A VC firm may look at 1000 unique proposals from
entrepreneurs for each proposal they fund, and fund 20 proposals for each one
that is very successful and actually makes money for the VCs and their LPs.
So, for such a success, that VC firm has looked at 20,000 unique proposals.

Yes, if in some year there are a total of 20,000 unique proposals, there are
200 VCs, each proposal is sent to all the 200 VCs, each VC funds one proposal
out of each 1000 they see, then each VC funds 20 proposals and in total there
are (20)(200) = 4000 proposals funded of the 20,000. But, again, only one in
20 is successful for only 200 successes out of the 20,000 or 1 in 100.

So, depending on assumptions about the data, the chance of success from a
proposal is 1 in 20,000 to 1 in 200.

So, in a word, the desired success is _exceptional_.

Lesson Two: To have one of the 1 in 20,000 proposals that is successful,
instead of just luck, about the best approach is to have some good planning.

Is it possible to have some effective plans? Yes, e.g., there was the first
Xerox photocopying machine, the first daisy wheel printer, the first good dot
matrix printer, the first good inkjet printer, the first good laser printer,
the first good program to drive such printers, the first good spreadsheet
program.

Now, let's look at the arguments of the OP:

"But we have done something in the ecosystem to encourage this type of
outlandish promotion ... where you feel like you need to use words like
trillion."

Why is the planning for a trillion necessarily "outlandish"? We know that we
are planning for something exceptional, and maybe good and careful planning,
which is the kind we want, says that, really, if we do well and take all the
market, then we do get a company worth $1 T. An investor would prefer the
planning to be for $1 B or $1 M instead? Okay, if the company really looks
like it could be worth $1 T, then it is easy enough to cut down the estimate
to something much lower.

"Reality is, that for every thoughtfully articulated and executed world
domination master plan, most of the biggest and impactful companies started
out with much more humble ambitions. Some just wanted to give students an
alternative to a summer job. Others just wanted make their friends feel like
pimps."

This situation is likely true but doesn't say much:

Why? The situation says that most successes are from luck. Then the suggestion
is to forget about planning and count on luck?

Here is an analogy that explains the situation: Go to a famous golf course and
to a par 3 hole. Get the data for the past 10 years on who made a hole in one.

See, first, what fraction of the holes in one were made by (A) professional
golfers and (B) everyone else. Will likely observe that nearly all the holes
in one were made by (B), not the professional golfers but by everyone else.

How can this be true? Sure, there were only a few pro golfers but many more of
everyone else. So, in the end, the luck of the many got more holes in one than
the skill of the few.

See, second, what the probability of a hole in one was for (A) the
professional golfers and (B) everyone else. Will likely find that the chances
for the pros was at least 10 times higher than for everyone else.

So, we have that (i) nearly all the hole in one shots were from luck but (ii)
the chances of a hole in one were much better for players with real skills.

So, if you were betting on a hole in one shot, then you should put your money
on the pros with real skills.

Similarly for picking startup projects: Go with solid planning and not just
with luck.

"Most wouldn’t have cleared the hurdle of the billion dollar idea."

Fine: Discovering that fact is part of evaluating projects. But when do find a
project that looks like it should be worth $1 T, don't automatically throw it
away as "outlandish".

Sure, maybe on average the $1 T projects take more risk capital than the $1 B
or $1 M projects, but guessing here is foolish and not necessary. Instead, the
amount of risk capital needed should be part of the planning, the good
planning that is believable. As we know from many projects \-- long bridges,
tall buildings, deep tunnels, big dams -- it is possible to plan big projects
with accurate time and cost estimates.

Yes, time and cost estimates can be especially difficult for software
projects, but just multiply both by a factor of about 20 to account for work
not directly for the project but, say, for getting around bugs in
infrastructure software, bad documentation, time to learn new APIs, computer
system management Excedrin headache #228,884,454, etc. and might be closer to
reality.

"Over the years I’ve watch as that little company has grown from a couple
thousand dollars a month to a couple million dollars a month. Next year, that
unfunded family run business will do over $100M in revenue."

Terrific. But without good planning, that example represents some astounding
good luck, close to winning a lottery ticket. Betting on lottery tickets is
foolish for nearly everyone.

"You may be surprised with how little ambition it really takes to eventually
change the world."

Luck and lottery tickets are still poor bets.

Instead, we should have good planning. And if the plans point to a company
worth $1 T, then check the plans numerous times and ways and then cheer.

Once a father quite successful in business told his son:

"You have a lot of good ideas to invest $1 million and make $1 billion. Why
not have an idea to invest $1000 and make $1 million."

Yes, but better still, have an idea to invest $1000 and make $1 B or $1 T.

It appears that here is the main reason for regarding $1 T plans as
"outlandish" and discarding them: There are so far no $1 T companies.

So, in effect, this says that we can't plan and practice to make a hole in one
and instead should look like the non-pro golfers who made a hole in one with
luck So, we should not plan but copy the _pattern_ of the non-pro golfers,
copy their brand of cubs, shoes, hat, shirt, etc.

Instead, it really is possible to have an idea for something really new and
terrific, to have good plans to achieve it, and to achieve it essentially on
time and on budget, e.g., as a low risk project.

Many of the best examples are from the all-time, unique, world-class grand
champion of advanced information technology projects, the US DoD. For an
example? Sure, GPS.

Betting on luck instead of planning? I remain surprised that people would
suggest such a thing.

Or, when the given point does not make good sense, maybe there is a hidden
point that does. Or there is the advice "Always look for the hidden agenda".
For VCs, one guess at a hidden agenda is publicity for more "deal flow".

