
USPS Discrimination Against Atheism? A Study by Atheist Shoes (2013) - franze
https://www.atheistberlin.com/study
======
joemi
I've been shipping over 1000 packages per month (mostly domestic, within US to
within US, but probably about 10-15% of those are from the US to other
countries) for the last several years. Always via USPS. The USPS loses a lot
of mail, in my opinion... At least 1% though probably closer to 2 or 3%. But
even worse, their delivery times can be _extremely_ erratic. Delays/losses
vary _heavily_ depending on location, especially with international mail.

So 178 items sounds like a ridiculously limited amount of shipments to
consider. The Atheist post seems to imply that they only sent 1 package to
Michigan. At best, on average, 178 shipments is a shade over 3 shipments per
state. Hardly enough for good statistics, and definitely not enough to draw
any strong correlations.

Also, it's important to note that in the comments, Atheist mentions that they
did not have tracking on their packages. In my experience, more people lie or
are mistaken about their package delivery than packages actually being lost.
Year after year, I'm continually surprised by how many people end up finding
their packages after you tell them "According to the tracking number, it's
been delivered. Could you check with anyone in you live with or share a
building with who may have accepted it?"

TLDR: As bad as the USPS is, 178 packages sent internationally without any
tracking seems like _far_ too few to draw any correlations about wide spread
religious bias in the USPS.

Edit to add: Just to be clear, I'm not arguing that atheists aren't
discriminated against in the US. (I'm pretty sure we're quite a few years away
from even the possibility of a POTUS being an atheist.) I _am_ arguing that
the post by Atheist (the company) doesn't indicate discrimination.

~~~
alexbeloi
Stats below:

If there is no bias, the lost packages reports would have equal probability of
having come from the athiest group or the non-athiest group.

The (frequentist) probability that the ratio would be 9:1 or worse (given 10
lost packages) is 10/(2^10) which is approximately 0.98%. If you're the type
to care about p-values, here we have p < 0.01.

Suppose there indeed exists this bias as it appears (9 times more likely to
lose athiest package), we might be curious to ask: how likely is it that we
would have detected a statistically significant (p < 0.05) bias with just 10
packages lost total?

Doing a similar calculation as above can check that we only see a statistical
significance bias if the loss discrepancy is (10:0, 9:1, 1:9, or 0:10). Now if
we suppose the bias is 9:1, how likely are we to have seen one of those
events? If we add up the probability of these events (10:0, 9:1, 1:9, or 0:10)
occurring under a biased scenario, we get about a 74% chance of us detecting
the bias.

A standard requirement is for this number to be at least 80%, our result is
close but would like to see more data before publishing in the Journal of
Atheist Footwear.

The latter metric is called statistical power or the probability of not
getting a false negative, whereas p-value is the probability of a false
positive.

~~~
joemi
I appreciate the statistics even though I don't really understand them all
that well. Since you seem fairly knowledgable of statistics (though I know a
lot of people here are too, so other chime in too if you want), could a case
be made that we shouldn't be comparing 9 lost decorative tape packages out of
178 with 1 lost non-decorative tape package out of 178, but instead be
comparing 9 directly with 1? When 10 packages

And if you're curious, please see my other reply as to why I think, even
including statistical significance of one type being lost more than the other,
we can't really draw a "religious bias" conclusion.

~~~
alexbeloi
Yep, the numbers I ran are already doing exactly what you suggest. Looking
exclusively at the 10 lost packages and considering how likely it should be
that 9 of them would belong to one category, compared to our expectation
(which is that they would be equally likely to have come from either category,
coming from the fact that the same number of packages were shipped with
Atheist labeling as without).

The statistics is entirely identical to flipping a coin 10 times and asking
the following questions: * Given that I saw 9 heads and 1 tail, how likely is
it that the coin is a fair coin. This is the p-value which was about 0.0098
(less than 1% chance) * Given that we are only tossing 10 coins, how likely
are we to have seen a statistically significant bias with the predicted bias
in place. This is the statistical power, which was 74%.

As you suggest in your other comment, the stats only point to a bias, the
origin of the bias is left for people to decide. That said, the packages were
sent in pairs, so subdividing the country into states and offices is
irrelevant since a given states saw the same number of packages from each
category as did each given office, the statistics are saying that on average
(across the whole country) there is a bias.

To ease your worries a little, this is not saying the USPS hates Atheist
packages 9x more than non-Atheist packages, most of the packages were
delivered successfully. All this is saying is that, for the ones that were
lost, it is very likely that they were lost because of their labeling. This is
the effect you would expect to see if 97.3% of USPS employees treated the
packages identically and the other 2.7% have a strong bias.

If we had more specifics about the delayed packages as well, we could get a
more nuanced picture, I suspect we would find that 80+% of USPS employees are
unbiased, some 10-15% might have some bias against Atheist labeling (would
delay an Atheist labeled package), and 2-3% have a strong bias against Atheist
labeling (would lose an Atheist labeled package).

If I was at USPS, I would push to conduct an experiment to try to identify
which offices were most likely to have some bias one way or another (not
necessarily specifically about Atheism, one could test whatever they wanted
presumably).

------
desdiv
The Pew Research Center surveyed 3,217 randomly selected U.S. adults[0] and
asked them to rate how positively they viewed each belief group. Here's the
ranking from most positive to least positive:

1\. Jews

2\. Catholics

3\. Evangelical Christians

4\. Buddhists

5\. Hindus

6\. Mormons

7\. Atheists

8\. Muslims

Surprisingly (at least to me), Atheists is second to last.

Interestingly enough, the low ranking of Atheists persists across party lines.
Both Republicans and Democrats rank Atheists only slightly higher than
Muslims, and by similar margins too: 2 points in the former and 1 point in the
latter.

[0] [http://www.pewforum.org/2014/07/16/how-americans-feel-
about-...](http://www.pewforum.org/2014/07/16/how-americans-feel-about-
religious-groups/)

~~~
golergka
Since they didn't seem to specify religious jews, their survey is just mixing
ethnic with belief group, which doesn't make much sense.

~~~
irrational
Isn't this the case with most of the groups? I would imagine even atheist Jews
have been to synagogue at least a few times. I would consider Catholics who
only go to Easter and Christmas mass to not be religious.

~~~
jedberg
The difference is that Jewish is actually an ethnic group as well as a
religious group. There is some overlap between them of course, but for example
there are Asian Jews and Jewish Catholics.

The Jewish ethnic group are people historically descended from the people of
Eastern Europe and the Middle East who practiced ancient Judaism (the
religion). That's why 23andme can identify someone as X% Jewish.

------
silveira
Although I agree with their conclusion, I'd like to see how it would go with
other names rather than "atheist" as a group control to eliminate the
possibility of a difference between branded and non-branded differences.

~~~
daveguy
I agree. If you could add the same tape with different words it would
eliminate the possibility that the worded tape was interfering with some auto-
sort functionality.

~~~
13of40
They definitely should have tried it with Arabic, Cyrillic, and maybe
Wingdings for a control group.

~~~
icelancer
>Wingdings

95% package loss rate incoming

~~~
colejohnson66
If you want all your packages to be lost, print the addresses in Wingdings

------
zaidf
They only state the average when they should also state the median along with
the entire data set. Let's say they sent 10 shoes of each type. Nine shoes of
each type took exactly the same time. But one pair of Atheist shoe was delayed
by 100 days. Now, on _average_ , atheist shoes take 10 days longer to arrive
because _one_ of the pairs took 100 days longer to arrive.

------
daveguy
This post is from (2013) but I doubt there has been any change in the past 3
years. It is concerning that there is any difference at all in shipping times
when tape with the word "atheist" on it is used. The difference was
significant (p<0.001). I would love to see a similar study with a variety of
packing tape ("Atheist", "Christian", "Muslim", etc).

~~~
Declanomous
I'd be interested in trying "Happy Holidays" vs. "Merry Christmas". I assume
this only happens with hand-sorted mail as well. I'd be interested in breaking
it down by zip code too.

I have a related anecdote. I live in Chicago, which has the slowest mail
delivery in the country. I've lived in a number of zip codes, and I've never
found the mail to get lost, merely delayed. However, I recently moved to a new
place, and I've started losing mail. I've generally liked my mail people, but
I'm convinced that the mail people at my new place are lazy. I've had issues
with mail getting rained on because they never shut the top of the mailbox,
I've had mail go missing. They have "signed" for certified mail for me.
They'll leave a package on my steps, but they won't close the gate on the way
out. They ignore the name printed on the mailbox and deliver mail for old
tenants, despite mail regulations forbidding them to do so. Plus, I've tried
talking to my mailperson, and she is always on the phone and refuses to talk
to me. I know delivering mail isn't the most glamorous job, but have some
pride.

~~~
LeifCarrotson
>Plus, I've tried talking to my mailperson, and she is always on the phone and
refuses to talk to me.

As much as we like to try to fix problems systemically, and place blame or
praise on organizations as a whole, an awful lot comes down to the bottom of
the pyramid/the top of the tree. I would blame most of those complaints on the
one person who actually brings the mail to your house when the giant machine
spits it all out.

I am fortunate to have a great relationship with our mail carrier. If you're
reading this, Patricia, thank you!

~~~
Declanomous
> I am fortunate to have a great relationship with our mail carrier.

In all fairness, this is the first time I've had problems with my mail
carrier. Normally I've found my mail carriers friendly, helpful and
conscientious. I appreciate how hard the job can be, especially in Chicago,
where the weather is all over the place, and the traffic is a nightmare.

------
leephillips
The results are interesting.

But as a godless guy, I don't get it. Why would I care about the theological
stance of the people who make my shoes? Why would a shoemaker want to
advertise its religion, or lack thereof, on its shipping boxes? We can't leave
tribal politics out of shoes now, even?

~~~
DINKDINK
>I don't get it

Let's say you're gay. You shoe maker belongs to the Mormon Church. When you
purchase shoes from her, 10% of her income typically goes to the church[1].
The Mormon Church then uses that money to lobby the government to deny your
civil rights, and succeeds[2]. It's not rational to contribute to your own
oppression. That's why some people don't want to "leave tribal politics out of
shoes". You're asking someone to leave politics out of politics.

[1] [https://www.mormon.org/faq/church-
tithing](https://www.mormon.org/faq/church-tithing)

[2]
[http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/15/us/politics/15marriage.htm...](http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/15/us/politics/15marriage.html)

~~~
abandonliberty
I suspect what you fund has an impact similar to what you vote.

Like movies? Ethical companies? Give them money.

Dislike what a corporation is doing or donates to? Don't give them money.

I'm just about to attempt switching my soap supply to Dr. Bronners. Family
owned business with a 5X earning cap from the lowest paid employee to the CEO.
They do some neat stuff: [http://www.triplepundit.com/2016/09/dr-bronners-
says-bye-bye...](http://www.triplepundit.com/2016/09/dr-bronners-says-bye-bye-
to-organic-trade-association/)

~~~
nerdponx
I used their soap for years. As much as I like the company and what they do, I
just don't like their soap for saily use. It's great for camping trips,
though.

~~~
pigscantfly
Have you ever tried the lavender scent? I can't handle most of their
fragrances for daily use, either, but that one seems significantly easier on
the nose and skin for some reason.

------
tokai
I wonder if printing a tv on the box would help. Or maybe it only works for
large boxes.

~~~
FuckOffNeemo
Are you referring to the article where a Bicycle manufacturer put "Television"
on the box and saw a considerable change in the number of damaged goods
received by the customers? :D

------
aikah
No surprise, it's a well known fact that Americans in general despise
atheists, left to right. No amount of PR bullshit will change that fact, US is
a extremely religious country.

------
petre
Just use non branded tape. Problem solved.

~~~
jasonkostempski
A better solution would be to shut down the USPS.

~~~
joemi
How is that a solution?

~~~
mcguire
Nothing is expected to get through; nothing gets through. No problem.

------
Animats
(2013), please.

------
davidgerard
(2013)

------
ramgorur
it's completely understandable, especially for those missing cases, angel
Gabriel took them by the lord's command.

eat those stinky shoes, you atheist scums, none can escape the lord's wrath.

------
pipio21
Oh, man!! you accuse other people of having prejudices about yourself while
making prejudices yourself.

Your control experiment was "we put labels and we did not put labels". That is
a very weak one.

People in customs anywhere are going to stop and look at anything out of the
ordinary. That is their job because drugs, diamonds and so on use to be in out
of the ordinary packages.

We send 3d printer pieces around the world. We are part of an engineering NGO
that promotes education using new technologies, specially in poor countries.

At first almost anything we sent was stopped, opened and inspected(and
delayed). Now everything goes smooth.

Difference? We asked customs or people in other countries the actual reasons
for being delivered late and the reasons made a lot of sense. Reasons like
terrorism in Colombia for example.

They also teach us ways to improve our packaging so next time we send it much
better. Around the world there are different conventions for putting
serializing address for example. You put it in wrong order and the postman
will have serious problems.

There is also people there(in customs or in the companies), when they know you
it is way easier. Not because you are atheist or not, but because you can be a
drug dealer and they could lose their job if they don't detect it.

Seriously, you are not that important. They have bigger problems to worry
about.

------
dlbucci
While this is an interesting story, and it's sad to see this sort of stuff
happening, I'm kind of more focused on what makes a shoe atheist. Are holy
shoes blessed in some manner, or are all shoes naturally religious and some
process is applied to the atheist shoes to make them secular? Based on what I
can tell from the site, atheist shoes really just need to say "I'm an atheist"
on the sole, but I want to believe there's more than that, because what sad
individuals are buying shoes just for that. (And if people only buy the shoes
because of the style, why do the shoes need to have such sacrilegious soles?)

~~~
leereeves
People buy clothes with religious, political, and identity writing all the
time.

Why would you call atheists "sad individuals" for doing the same?

~~~
sushid
As an agnostic, I wouldn't call them "sad," but it's like Neil deGrasse Tyson
said. [0] It's fine to see people interested in golf congregating and talking
about it, but it'd be stranger to see a bunch of anti-golfers congregating and
talking about how they don't like to play golf.

[0]
[https://twitter.com/jonathan_blow/status/273582094448476161](https://twitter.com/jonathan_blow/status/273582094448476161)

~~~
johnfactorial
If golf were responsible for as much tragedy as religion, congregations of
anti-golfers would make a lot of sense.

