
This bitcoin graph has become so accurate again at the moment, it's scary - bonbon
https://www.tradingview.com/v/sSmoerF3/
======
Aardwolf
There are max 21 million bitcoins.

There are 7 billion people.

So there is 0.003 bitcoin per person.

So if bitcoin will one day become "THE" currency, isn't it more than logical
that 1BTC will become worth more than a million dollars or something like that
(not that dollars would still exist at that time, but, 1BTC would be worth as
much as an average group of 333 people owns)?

Or am I misunderstanding something about currency?

~~~
astrodust
Could this comment be more Hacker News?

There are _not_ 7 billion people that this will impact. How many of those have
no access to a computer of any sort, including a mobile phone? How many are
under the age of ten? That cuts out a huge chunk from that figure.

Then subtract all those too old to care about Bitcoin or internet anything.

Then remove from that those that have little faith in anything they can't
touch and hold, physical currency, precious metals, or simply commodity items.
Considering how reluctant some groups are to even use credit cards for online
purchases, regardless of the enormous level of consumer protection provided by
that service, this is an insurmountable hurdle for some.

There's _at most_ a billion people in this market and for it to get that
pervasive it will take an enormous upswing in popularity. At this point
Bitcoin isn't even as popular as Cuban Pesos.

~~~
panarky
> At this point Bitcoin isn't even as popular as Cuban Pesos.

Bitcoin replacing the US dollar is unrealistic.

But if it's this valuable at the Cuban-peso level, how valuable will it be
when it's as popular as, say, Canadian dollars or South African rand?

~~~
astrodust
It's not even at the Cuban Peso level and it's highly unlikely to eclipse the
valuation of all currency for any developed country.

Canada is the 11th largest economy in the world, slightly behind Russia and
India. South Africa is less than a quarter of that, but still _way_ bigger
than Bitcoin.

Cuba has a GDP of $68B. Is there that much Bitcoin being exchanged for goods
yet?

I'd be impressed if Bitcoin transactions have eclipsed the economy of EVE
Online.

~~~
panarky
> I'd be impressed if Bitcoin transactions have eclipsed the economy of EVE
> Online

You say that like it's a bad thing. Looks like upside to me.

I don't pretend to know the future of Bitcoin. If nothing else it's
demonstrated the possibility of transmitting real value across borders without
banks or governments.

That capability is worth a lot more than the GDP of Cuba.

I don't know if Bitcoin or something else will solve this problem, but now
that everyone knows what's possible, it's as inevitable as any other obvious
invention.

And whatever solves this problem will be worth a hell of a lot.

------
bonbon
It says: "It will end - rapidly - in an epic sell-off as people realise that
there are no more greater fools above them"

I was impressed with his prediction of the first top and drop. But if this
will play out like the chart says it will. Well... impressive.

What do you think?

~~~
a3voices
It's incorrect since Bitcoin usage is still high.

[https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-
addresses](https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses) does not look
bearish to me

~~~
bonbon
It was a short term prediction though. If you press play on the right side of
the graph, it will update up to present.

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jstalin
I wouldn't call this "scary." It's not tough to apply basic technical analysis
to charts. It may or may not go down, but TA isn't set in stone and only works
in the long run in retrospect.

See, e.g., the double top: [http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/price-
patterns.html](http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/price-patterns.html)

~~~
subzey
IMO, market cannot be predicted by just drawing lines. So, there's some kind
of outstanding luck or magic.

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c23gooey
> We have experienced all the bullish news that there is and, for now, will
> be.

I think he is being rather short sighted here. Especially with news coming out
that the Swiss parliament is investigating its potential to act as a legal
currency.

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throwaway9848
Leaving aside the bitcoin angle, this is actually a pretty good primer
explanation of the market mechanics and psychology behind technical analysis.

------
sbokov
The accuracy of predicted levels is amazing...

