
Nate Silver on how ignoring math skews political journalism - _pius
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/25/welcome-and-welcome-back/
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lmkg
Politics is entertainment. No matter how slam-dunk an election may be,
networks have an incentive to make it look like a photo-finish, in order to
make the viewing experience intense and drive viewer engagement. If you say
"yeah, it's pretty much over by this point," your viewers have no reason to
tune in for the rest of the week. If you say "it's so close, absolutely
anything could tip the scales," people will keep watching your live coverage
of butterflies in China.

Tangent: I first realize this before I was of voting age, watching the same
thing unfold on an episode of Survivor. For extra credit, describe how reality
television and political election coverage have influenced each other in
recent years.

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ugh
I wonder to what degree that’s US specific. I just don’t seem to see the same
thing happening here in Germany. Our campaigns are much shorter and we have
less of them, also no 24 hour news channels (none that count, nothing like
what you have in the US).

Coverage about the election is still dominated by the big public broadcasters
and seems a lot less hectic. All not very entertaining, if you ask me.

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philwelch
Maybe it depends on what relationship you have with your government. Americans
like to see their presidents, in particular, as Bold Heroes Leading The Free
World...to do something, at least, whether it's building the Panama Canal or
winning a war or sending men to the moon. We carve their faces into fucking
mountainsides over here. Americans really want inspirational leaders who can
be larger-than-life figures boldly changing history by sheer force of will.

There's no tactful way to say this, but the last time Germany tried electing a
bold, larger-than-life leader looking to change the course of history by sheer
force of will, it didn't turn out too well. So I'm not surprised German
culture has somewhat shied away from that tendency.

Frankly I'd be happy if Americans were satisfied with electing dull but
competent administrators rather than trying to look for epic historical
figures. It gets the expectations all out of whack, and leads people who
aren't up to it into making poor judgments.

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wlievens
It's not a German thing. It's the same across Europe, certainly in countries
that don't have a popularly elected head of state (the UK, the Netherlands,
Belgium, ...). Maybe it's just a Presidential thing? An election with one
winner is probably more entertaining than an election where the most exciting
outcome is party X gaining a slightly higher percentage than expected.

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philwelch
I'm not sure about that--none of the fascist leaders were actually the head of
state of their countries, at least to begin with (Germany had a ceremonial
President, Italy and Spain had kings). You can get the same aspirational
voting for a PM or Chancellor as you can for a President. But it's possible
that Europe as a whole is cynical on having the kind of aspirational leaders
Americans always try and go for.

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mooism2
Political journalism is surely more skewed by predicting or speculating on who
WILL win elections, instead of asking who SHOULD win.

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hypersoar
I am reminded of an article on Ars Technica (POTUS 2008: Are you ready for
some football?) from a few years ago about how political coverage has become
more and more like sports coverage. It's clichéd, but I agree that the media
should focus much more on the matters being discussed than on the people
discussing them. At best, this personality-driven media obfuscates the issues.
At worst, it tolerates and even encourages dishonesty.

As much as I enjoy and even respect what Nate Silver has done, he drives this
"who's winning the race" style coverage nearly to its logical extreme.

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mooism2
Absolutely; I expect I'd enjoy Nate Silver's blog a lot less if I was
American.

