
“40% Chance of Pandemic” – Is Moody's Coronavirus Risk Assessment Malpractice? - craigdalton
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/48606151-craig-dalton/5414304-40-chance-of-pandemic-is-moodys-coronavirus-risk-assessment-malpractice
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mytailorisrich
What is the definition of 'pandemic' used?

If we take the definition as being "an epidemic occurring worldwide" [1] then
it is still arguable whether a coronavirus pandemic has started just yet since
there is no reported cases of local transmission in Africa and in South
America.

The definition of the term is crucial to discuss Moody's report, or just to
have any discussion on the topic, and it seems a bit light that the article's
author only brushes on it at the very end of the article, and uses a
definition slightly different than the above ("global spread").

[1]
[https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/89/7/11-088815/en/](https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/89/7/11-088815/en/)

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downerending
No one knows. It might be mildly irresponsible of Moody's to hazard a guess,
but the author's contention that that guess is obviously wildly low is just
silly.

