
Ask HN: Would buying FB stock right now be a great idea or horrible idea? - rblion
Considering it. I don&#x27;t like FB or what they stand for but I think I could buy low and sell high. I know a vocal minority are upset right now but most people don&#x27;t care enough to delete their accounts or do care but are too addicted to delete their accounts. The government could regulate the industry but I think this is wishful thinking considering this is one of the largest corporations on the planet and is entrenched into the fabric of civilization and world history at this point.
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troydavis
This is not investment advice.

It would be a bad idea, but that has nothing to do with Facebook specifically
or recent news. Read a dozen of Matt Levine’s columns, starting with
[https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-10-09/retail-
vo...](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-10-09/retail-voters-and-
insider-traders).

The gist: in 2018, an individual isn’t going to have any insight about a
security that isn’t already priced in. Sorry. If this is a hobby, like buying
a few lotto tickets, great, do whatever. Your question sounds like you’re
seeking an investment thesis, though. If so, go with “I don’t know anything
about any company that isn’t priced in, so I should own a diversified basket
(which generally means mutual funds or ETFs, not specific equities other than
maybe for tax-loss harvesting) that is essentially the entire market.”

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cimmanom
Yes and no.

Market prices of securities these days are short term prices, especially with
the amount of automated trading and day trading going on. The people with the
funds to engage in arbitrage strategies are hoping to make a buck somewhere in
the next second to next month.

A long term (as in, decades-long outlook) buy-and-hold investor can still get
deals when a stock hits a local low. But the risk is different: in 20 years,
will Facebook be more like Microsoft is now? Or more like Enron?

If you're confident it'll continue to grow steadily once the media cycle is
over, buying while it's facing a short term scandal could be smart. Or the
scandal could turn out to be more than a hiccup, and they could be out of
business in a few years. Or they could just slowly fade to nothing over time.

I strongly agree that a diversified portfolio is a better long term strategy
than picking stocks. However, if you're already doing that and have a bit of
money left over that you're not afraid to lose, there's no harm in placing a
few more-specific bets. You just have to remember to treat them like bets and
have enough self control not to gamble with the rent money.

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greenyoda
FB is still very much in the news, and could drop more before it goes up. More
bad news will emerge as legislative bodies around the world start issuing
subpoenas for FB to testify about privacy violations, political meddling, etc.
I don't think there's an end in sight yet, since politicians can still get
publicity from beating up FB in the name of protecting privacy and democracy.
Journalists can also score points by digging up new dirt about FB (especially
if it's linked to politicians), and they'll continue to do so for a while.

Also, all the major stock indexes plummeted this week, and if they continue to
go down, FB will go down along with them.

