
Tesla's Big Gamble: Can The Electric Car Go Mainstream? - ganjianwei
http://www.npr.org/blogs/alltechconsidered/2012/09/24/161700525/teslas-big-gamble-can-the-electric-car-go-mainstream?ft=1&f=1001
======
ChuckMcM
My parents used to joke that it took three owners to create a new ski resort,
the first to do all the permitting paperwork and go bankrupt, the second to
acquire that completed paperwork for free and then to go bankrupt removing
trees and rocks and installing lifts, then the third to get the paperwork and
the equipment for free and to start marketing it.

I really really really want Tesla to succeed. But I cannot convince myself to
buy a Model-S, it is just past my pain threshold. And for that I am sad.

~~~
daeken
> I really really really want Tesla to succeed. But I cannot convince myself
> to buy a Model-S, it is just past my pain threshold. And for that I am sad.

I'm largely in the same boat. I'm planning on buying a car in the next year
and while I think the Model S is downright beautiful, I can't do it. The base
model is right in the price range I'd be willing to pay, but the problem is
the range; even under optimal driving circumstances, it's quite a bit short of
what I'd need to make the trips I'd like to make. One of the higher end models
has the range I'd need, but I can't justify the extra $20k or whatever it is.

Hopefully in a couple years there'll be a car from them priced at the perfect
level with the things I need, but it's just not there yet.

~~~
sliverstorm
Depending on how compelled you are and how often you make those trips you'd
like to make, you could potentially shore up your garage with a cheap beater
from the 90's.

------
i2oc
I'm very excited for mine to arrive in the next 90 days. I know I will be an
early adopter in the EV world but I look at it as less of a splurge and more
of an investment that could move the industry forward. This will be my fifth
car owned and I am tired of two faced dealers, incremental improvements,
design without vision and an industry that can but won't improve because of
the lucrative parts & service aftermarket. Radio and television is littered
with people giving away cars with 0% financing (baking in the profit elsewhere
I suspect). It's only a matter of time before we have to bail the auto makers
out again.

I'm putting my money into Tesla because I believe that if they can make it to
the Model E (Bluestar - $30-40k sedan) then we'll have a whole new ballgame on
our hands in the automotive space. The Model S is the testing ground for
volume manufacturing, the Model X will test platform re-use, then we reach the
Model E which will drive down costs.

In the mean time I encourage you all to test drive one - even if you are not
going to purchase - it's quite the experience. The Tesla stores around North
America are now getting their in-store models for test drives. With leasing
opening up next summer (rumour has it) it should also make it a tad more
accessible to the general public.

~~~
nasmorn
Does the car come with stock? If not it is investing your money for somebody
else's benefit, aka charity. Not that there is anything wrong with that.

~~~
i2oc
If your focus in pure money ROI then I supposed you would be right. At some
point, however, we need to vote with our wallets to influence larger
investment decisions. At the early stages of adoption per-unit costs will be
higher than volume manufacturing. This is where Tesla is at this point (and
the EV segment as a whole). If I continued to buy internal combustion vehicles
because they were cheaper then I would continue to prop up a segment that
needs to either be deprecated or pivot.

At this price point I am willing to vote with my wallet in hopes that it will
spur on further investment to broaden the market in turn driving down prices
through better technology and higher volume sales. This is no different than
the PC market in the 1980s - very expensive to buy a PC, but if none of us did
then we would have had a different outcome.

What is different about this investment than, say, buying a Ferrari is that
this feels like something that is moving us forward rather than burning cash
on a cool car that the ladies will dig (although you do hope for that as well
- it's cool being green after all, right? :)).

------
confluence
I'm sorry but we're past the "can" stage.

Electric propulsion just _is_ better for any type of friction based transport
within our atmosphere (trains/buses/planes/cars/bikes). The only problem was
battery density per dollar. However, thanks to the incredible - and I mean
incredible - success of laptops, phones and tablets over the last decade that
problem is just about solved (due to astonishing volume/economies of
scale/incremental li-on research/massive factory investment).

High battery density at low cost (key) + 92% efficient electric motors
(already done) = cheap, efficient transport for all - everywhere (think the
electrification of trains - but throughout suburbia). Hook up this electrified
network and make it fully autonomous (cars/trains/buses/planes) - and we've
just turned the physical world into the Internet. No more oil shocks, no more
traffic jams, no more pollution (in city centres), no more time wasted, fully
networked, no more car ownership, no more driver deaths - for more see Google
car discussions elsewhere.

We will utilise fully electric transportation systems within the decade for
the same reason that gasoline/diesel based transport dominated electric back
in 1900 - it's just better, faster and cheaper.

It also has the benefit of allowing us stop giving a shit about the hell hole
that is the Middle East (I went there).

With the introduction of electric cars, the astonishing growth and dramatic
lowering in cost of solar PV (thanks to China) and the development of nuclear
fusion with the ITER plant - you'll soon wonder why you cared about the price
of oil at all.

The electric car will send everyone in the Middle East back to Africa level
care and development levels - a.k.a. We will no longer give a shit and brutal
poverty.

~~~
sliverstorm
Electric motors are awesome, but you're underestimating how far behind battery
technology is as a automotive power source compared to gasoline.

~~~
confluence
Perhaps - I'm willing to concede.

However the facts of the matter are such:

Gasoline is only ~15% efficient. Gasoline is assumed to be past peak oil -
hence prices must rise with time (look at your local petrol station). Battery
tech on the other hand falls in cost by 5% per year. Electric engines are 92%
efficient - batteries fall in cost 4x over next decade - EV cost/range parity
will occur by 2018.

Give it 5 years and they'll be electric Toyota Corolla's rolling around with
middle class drivers behind the wheel.

~~~
sliverstorm
It's less the cost that I'm thinking of, but the weight and the recharge
times. Of course these can be accepted as trade-offs, but they fly in the face
of your apparent idea that electric power is equal or better in all ways aside
from cost and thus complicate matters.

Don't forget, by the way, we have to power electric vehicles with _something_.
I expect as gasoline rises in cost, electricity is going to as well,
offsetting some of this differential.

It doesn't have to be that way, but what with our fear of nuclear power...

Anyway, I am completely in favor of electric vehicles for many reasons, but to
call them inevitable _within the near future_ , I think is unrealistic. Unless
we come up with capacitors of wildly improved energy density (on the order of
1,000x) at which point I hope and expect the gasoline automobile market will
fold overnight.

~~~
siphor
not really offsetting, (according to this car review site anyway
[http://www.motortrend.com/roadtests/alternative/1208_2012_te...](http://www.motortrend.com/roadtests/alternative/1208_2012_tesla_model_s_test_and_range_verification/viewall.html))
at the end it has a little breakdown...

"During our drive, we used 78.2 kW-hrs of electricity (93 percent of the
battery's rated capacity). What does that mean? It's the energy equivalent of
2.32 gasoline gallons, or 100.7 mpg-e before charging losses. That BMW 528i
following us (powered by a very fuel-efficient, turbocharged, direct-injected
2.0-liter four-cylinder engine) consumed 7.9 gallons of gas for a rate of 30.1
mpg. The Tesla's electrical energy cost for the trip was $10.17 (at
California's average electrical rate); the BMW's drive cost $34.55. The 528i
emitted 152 lbs of CO2; the Model S, 52 -- from the state's power plants."

~~~
sliverstorm
No, not completely offset- partially. I don't mean I expect it will cost an
electric car just as much to drive as a gas car; I mean that the falling costs
of electricity storage cannot be taken in isolation against the rising cost of
gasoline. Let's not forget as well that if everyone is suddenly driving
electric cars, electricity demand will explode and prices will rise. I expect
the result is simply that it will draw out the "crossing point".

Really, that's all I'm arguing, is that we are not twenty-four months away
from the electric car takeover. It's probably more than a decade out.

~~~
confluence
We agree then - that's what I said - one decade to mainstream.

------
lisper
I hope someone from Tesla is reading this. I really, really wanted to buy a
Tesla. But the Roadster was too small, and the Model S is too big. At 196
inches long, it's almost as big as a BMW 7 series. The Right Size for an
electric car is ~170-180 inches, about the size of a Prius (or a Lexus IS or
an Infiniti G). I was a little dismayed to see that the next car in the
pipeline, the Model X, bills itself as a blend of SUV and minivan. That is
totally the wrong direction IMHO. You already have one very big car and one
very small one. You need a compact-to-midsize to fill out the lineup, not a
second huge car.

~~~
eduardordm
I think their rationale is: Their cars are very expensive. People would buy a
196 inches-long expensive car, they also would buy an expensive sports cars.
They wouldn't buy an expensive Prius easily. Maybe they are using their high
margins on those cars to have some chance against Asian makers in the future.
But, sad truth is, they will develop the very tech that nissan, toyota,
hyundai, et al, will use to kill them.

~~~
jlgreco
Tesla is licensing some of their tech to Toyota iirc. I think they are of the
attitude that in the current market more electric cars from everyone is good
for business.

~~~
brooksbp
and mercedes

~~~
patrickk
They have a deal to get some of the interior trim from Mercedes. And Daimler
(Mercedes parent company) owns a chunk of Tesla.

------
bane
Tesla, here's what I want.

\- $30k base (I buy around $20k, but can justify the delta because of the fuel
savings), could care less what the top end is, but probably no more than $45k.

\- Accord or Sonata size. I'd even settle for a BMW 3-series or C class size.

\- For the base price I want 300 mile range.

\- Seats 4-5 adults

\- don't need leather seats or other fancy stuff, just a/c am/fm/hd/xm radio
with an Aux in. Don't care about touch screen nonsense, GPS nav, maybe just
give me a place to put my phone and it'll fill in for all that stuff. I don't
even care about a CD player, the phone will handle it all through aux.

\- Cruise control is cool, but I won't pay a dollar more for it

\- 0-60 in under 6 seconds.

\- 5 star crash ratings all around

\- sell it with civic/accord like reliability for 5 years

\- then I'll buy it

everything else is cool, hell I'd love to plunk down on a top of the line
model-S, I drool when I watch Veyron top speed runs, I love this stuff, but
honestly when I get down to it, I think of cars like rapidly depreciating
transport appliances. They have to be cheap and reliable, utilitarian and just
reasonably comfortable (not luxurious). I don't care if the car is 50/50
weight balanced, or the car can park itself, or the cup holders retract into
the dash. I don't give a shit about this. It's not that I can't afford it,
it's just that I'd rather do other things with my money. This is not a value
judgement on those that do spend on cars, but it's not what I spend _my_ money
on.

I'm the type of car buyer that buys 1 car every 10-12 years and drives them
for over 250k miles or till the wheels fall off. I buy in the segment of cars
that sells something like a quarter million cars a month in the U.S. alone.
There are a lot of us.

(and yes, the model-S and X are probably among the most beautiful production
cars in the world today)

~~~
sliverstorm
I think that was about as useful a list of demands as mine:

\- $30k base price

\- Be a Ferrari

You're basically asking for the performance and size of an M3, the reliability
of a Civic, the range of a Japanese gasoline car, all for the price of...
well, a Civic. Presumably all while maintaining electric's 200mpgE+. Of
_course_ it would sell; it would be the biggest bargain in automotive history.

*mpgE = miles per gallon equivalent

~~~
bane
I don't think so. I'm basically asking for them to sell me an all electric
replacement for a V-6 accord with the absolute minimum trim level (which runs
around $25-27k) But with the inconvenience of having to spend several hours
charging it instead of a few minutes refueling it.

------
sksksk
I think in order to make the electric car go mainstream, we need to move past
the idea of car ownership.

For a lot of people, car sharing provides people with the benefits they need
from a car without the hassle of owning it.

In the case of electric cars, where a huge barrier to using one is the
charging time, car sharing nearly completely solves the problem. Because cars
are returned to the same locations in between reservations, they will be
constantly charging during the time they're not being driven. Plus all the
infrastructure cost is shared over the members (if, for example, you live in a
city, you might not be able to install a charging station because you have on
street parking)

------
simonsarris
> Musk says eventually the company will make another car that many more of us
> could afford.

> "It's really been my goal from the beginning for Tesla to produce a mass-
> market car," Musk says.

It blows my mind that the article and comments here have yet to mention the
Nissan Leaf.

<http://www.nissanusa.com/leaf-electric-car/index>

Isn't that more mainstream already? By _miles?_ I see them in New Hampshire
for chrissake. You can get them for 27K after rebate.

Does nobody care because it doesn't look fast?

~~~
confluence
It is a mainstream car - but it isn't mainstream because their range is
atrocious (good for some - not for most).

We need ~250-300 mile range cars going at 30K for mainstream adoption.

------
ck2
Note that Toyota declared today they are getting out of the plug-in (no gas
engine) business entirely.

It's interesting it that it likely means they cannot make the margins they
want.

~~~
eduardordm
"Toyota Prius Plug-In adds electric-only mode"

[http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/08/11/living/automotive/...](http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/08/11/living/automotive/toyota-
prius-plug-in-adds-electric-only-mode.html)

~~~
illumin8
The problem with all of the plug-in hybrids is that they can only run about 12
miles on full electric power. I don't know about you, but I need an electric
car that can run at least 50 miles to get to work and back.

~~~
schiffern
The Volt has an EV-only range of 40 miles.

------
TheMakeA
Probably not when their cars start at $50,000. I would really love for it to
happen though.

But perhaps I am just poor.

~~~
ww520
50K is too much. That's in the luxury brand segments where car companies spent
decades to build up brand awareness to justify the price. Put it in the 20K to
30K range and they will make a killing.

May be their production capacity can't handle the high volume so they price it
to throttle demand.

~~~
bathat
The problem is that batteries are expensive. High-end cars have high margins
(it doesn't cost 2x as much to build a $50k car as it does to build a $25k
car). When Toyota introduced the Prius, they added all sorts of (what were
then) $30k car features. Why? Not because they wanted to make a luxury car, (a
friend of mine remarked that if they just added leather seats he would buy one
instead of an expensive Lexus) but because it costs next to nothing to add
those convenience features. That way people compare the Prius to a $30k car
and see only a $1000 hybrid premium instead of a $5000 premium. That's also
why you don't see $15k hybrids: Taking all the "premium" features out don't
make it cost any less.

The reason this is possible is that hybrids and EVs have the margins of much
less expensive cars.

Edit: added a sentence

~~~
ww520
The problem with material cost based approach is that it ignores the value of
the brand. Yes, it doesn't cost 2x as much to build a $50K car as a $25K car
but the branding of the $50K cars took a lots of money and a long time to
build up. People are willing to buy a $50K BMW instead of a $20K car not
because of the material cost but because of the intangible brand. A Prius
arguably does not have the branding of a $30K car. Toyota still sold tons of
them, kudos to them. Similarly Tesla simply doesn't have the branding power of
a $50K car now.

------
Zenst
I believe for cities and dense populated area's were charge points easily
viable that electric cars have there real niche if the price and incentives to
migrate are there. Offset against cleaner air in dense populated area's/cities
and its a win win. But until some extra leaps in power storage are made then
we still have a little way to go until things truely pick up.

Though a car that could act as a pod that could attach onto a transport train
line would truely open up interesting options in personal transport and
charging alternatives.

------
syousif
One of the big downsides I see in owning a Tesla is the need to also own a
house with a garage. The Model S has the range to handle my daily commuting
needs, but I have no place to charge it.

------
krupan
any numbers on cost per mile just to get from point a to point b as compared
to a gas-powered car?

~~~
revelation
Does it matter? Producing electricity is almost trivial to scale up when
compared to oil, especially if the political weather forecast for your region
is nuclear-friendly.

Wolfram has the estimate for you:
[http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%2885*kW*h%29%2F%28300*...](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%2885*kW*h%29%2F%28300*miles%29+*+%28electricity+price+usa%29)

Thats half of what you pay per mile with a Prius:
[http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%28gas+price%29+*+%281%...](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%28gas+price%29+*+%281%2F%2850MPG%29%29)

Not included in these calculations is the wear and tear of a standard gasoline
engine, which are still running on pretty much the design of the original 1885
Daimler Reitwagen.

