
EU referendum: Cameron sets June date for UK vote - tristanguigue
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35621079
======
TazeTSchnitzel
This is going to have wide-reaching consequences no matter what way it goes.
Off the top of my head, potential issues include:

* Combined with the sovereign debt crisis and the migrant crisis, this could be the end of the EU (perhaps unlikely, but)

* The UK leaving the EU with the Republic of Ireland staying in (there's little support for RoI leaving) could create problems in Northern Ireland

* The UK voting to leave the EU, with Scotland having voted to stay, could lead to another Scottish independence referendum

* The UK voting to stay in the EU, with England having voted to leave, might (though I don't know how likely it is) upset people in England

* Whatever way the result goes, it might bring down the current UK Government and force elections

* If the UK leaves, other countries might consider it as well

* If the UK stays, other countries might want to renegotiate their terms as well

* This will bring up the European Convention on/Court of Human Rights, and Human Rights Act, issue again - what happens if the UK actually does leave the ECHR or repeal the HRA? Especially in Northern Ireland, where the HRA is part of the Good Friday Agreement, and in Scotland, where laws must comply with the ECHR

I'm not an expert on any of this. It'll be interesting to see what happens,
certainly.

~~~
aembleton
Membership of the EU requires you to sign up to the ECHR, but countries
outside of the EU are also members of the ECHR. We can continue to be part of
the ECHR without being inside the EU.

By leaving the EU, all our existing legislation that has been enacted will
stay. It just means that our elected government will have the power to remove
legislation without getting permission from unelected commissioners.

Under the Lisbon treaty, we will continue to be members of the EU for two
years following a vote to leave. I expect if we vote to leave, there will be
another referendum in 2017 after the EU has had some serious introspection
about the democratic deficit. I would expect them to try to keep the UK as a
member.

~~~
antillean
Gove's statement today -- [http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-
referendum-...](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-
michael-goves-full-statement-on-why-he-is-backing-brexit-a6886221.html) \--
sounds to me like he'd also like the UK to leave the ECHR.

~~~
TazeTSchnitzel
Does it say that? I'll admit to have only Ctrl-F'd and not read it, but I see
references to the ECJ in Strasbourg, which is an EU institution, not to the
ECHR.

~~~
antillean
Ah, yeah, you're right. My bad.

------
ZeroGravitas
Worth noting this is only happening because the British electoral system is
broken.

A small anti-EU, right-wing party could have stolen just enough votes on this
issue to turn the tide on the two party system result due to the brain damage
of first-past-the-post[1], so the main right-wing party started this hare-
brained scheme in motion to head that off.

This, in a nation where PR and full democracy is derided because... well
actually mostly because the status quo benefits the powerful and well
connected.

Footnote 1: just struck me what a misleading name this is. I've never seen a
horse race where a horse with a similar color Jersey to you going faster, can
slow you down.

~~~
calpaterson
Indeed it is happening because the political system is broken, but in the
exact opposite way from how you have described.

"A small anti-EU, right wing party" \- UKIP got nearly 13% of the vote and
would probably be part of a coalition government with the Conservative party
if we had a proportional representation system. Instead they have 1 MP. The
SNP got only 8.6% of the vote and they have 56 MPs.

The referendum is happening because finally the grassroots of the Conservative
party prevailed on the parliamentary Conservative party that we had to have
one. Polling has historically shown that at least 40% of the country want to
leave the EU. All of the traditional parties support the EU membership.

The UK joined an economic community that has somehow transformed into a
superstate. You need to have democratic process if you want to make a change
that big.

~~~
TazeTSchnitzel
> The UK joined an economic community that has somehow transformed into a
> superstate

I've seen some variant of this claimed time and time again, but I don't really
get it. The EU has always been supranational, always been pro-harmonisation
and -integration. The scope of what it covers may have expanded somewhat over
time (and that's been actively participated in by the UK anyway), but is it
really a fundamentally different institution in 2016 from what there was in
1975? The main thing it did in 1975 and does in 2016 is set common rules for
trade. Okay, it has nominal leaders now and some semblance of democratic
process, but that's a feature of the UN, too, and nobody describes it as a
superstate.

~~~
calpaterson
The EU simply did not exist in 1975. That's not just a technical comment: it
really didn't exist until 1992 with the Maastricht Treaty. Since 1975 there is
a currency (and monetary policy), there is a proper and separate legal system,
there a real political process with a parliament and an executive and many
other changes. Trade is now only a part of a much bigger story.

In 1975 there wasn't even a flag - the circle of yellow stars was a symbol
used by different pan-national organisation (that still exists) with no
relation at all to the EEC.

~~~
TazeTSchnitzel
> The EU simply did not exist in 1975. That's not just a technical comment: it
> really didn't exist until 1992 with the Maastricht Treaty

Under its current name, yes, but the European Union we know today is really
the successor to the European Communities of yesteryear.

> Since 1975 there is a currency (and monetary policy),

Which the UK doesn't participate in, mostly.

> there is a proper and separate legal system,

This isn't new. There has been EU law since before the UK joined. The European
Communities Act 1972 specifically provides for the conversion of EU law into
UK law, and its supremacy over UK law.

> there a real political process with a parliament and an executive and many
> other changes.

The European Parliament existed long before the UK joined, and has been named
that since 1962. But in fairness, it only started having elections in 1979 (it
was previously appointed).

The European Commission, the executive, also existed before the UK joined. It
has been a single body since 1967 (and there were three executives before that
- their merger is sometimes considered the beginning of the modern EU).

> Trade is now only a part of a much bigger story.

It's always been part of a bigger story. The European Economic Community,
after all, was only one of the three European Communities we joined.

> In 1975 there wasn't even a flag - the circle of yellow stars was a symbol
> used by different pan-national organisation (that still exists) with no
> relation at all to the EEC.

So? Lots of international organisations have flags. The Commonwealth of
Nations has its own flag, and it's never considered a superstate.

~~~
calpaterson
Most of these ultimately come down to a Ship of Theseus problem - how many
changes can something be subject to until it becomes a different thing
altogether? Is the European Parliament of today really the same as the
unelected body of 1962? Is the judicial system really the same one?

Clearly you think that it is the same body. I hope you can also see how others
could be cynical about this expanded scope and view it as surprising and
undesirable.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus)

~~~
TazeTSchnitzel
Yeah, I can understand that. Undoubtedly the EU has changed over time, and
many people might not like those changes. I'm just suspicious of the claim
that the EU is very different from the EC voted on in 1975. In some respects
it is, but I feel it is misleading to look back and say it was just something
like a loose free trade agreement. It was much more than that even when we
originally joined, though it could be argued that the general public weren't
very aware of it.

On the other hand, I don't know if the general public understands the EU now,
either.

------
k-mcgrady
I'm pretty worried about this. I don't think most of the public are well
enough informed to make this decision and I can't really blame them given all
the propaganda. I could see many people making their decision based on
immigration alone. One place that's going to be particularly hard hit by an
exit will be Northern Ireland considering it shares a land border with the
Republic of Ireland. In order to keep the current abilities to travel across
the border with zero restrictions (the border is essentially invisible
currently) I'm sure a lot of new laws will need to be worked out. I could also
see a lot of businesses simply shifting offices 50 miles across the border to
keep business within the EU.

~~~
antillean
Uh, no. Neither Ireland nor the UK is in the Schengen. The UK didn't want to
be, and Ireland opted out because of the UK. From the BBC[1]:

"The UK and Republic of Ireland have opted out. The UK wants to maintain its
own borders, and Dublin prefers to preserve its free movement arrangement with
the UK - called the Common Travel Area - rather than join Schengen."

1\. [http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-
europe-13194723](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13194723)

~~~
k-mcgrady
Shocked I wasn't aware of that! I still think it'll be pretty bad from a
business perspective with Northern Ireland losing companies to the Republic
and more difficult trading between the two.

~~~
aembleton
More concerning will be the future of the Good Friday Agreement and the peace
in the area.

~~~
antillean
True.

------
venomsnake
I really hope for an exit. I just want to see what will happen with UK outside
of EU. Especially since they have done nothing to fulfill their pre referendum
Scottish promises. The imperial preference days are over. That is a lesson the
British need to learn. And a self inflicted wound will be the best way to do
it.

So either UK will be in EU as with all other or not at all. The current state
of affairs as we are in EU only for the good stuff mightily annoys me.

~~~
vertex-four
That sounds like you're treating this as a game. Fact of the matter is, if we
leave the EU, a whole bunch of minorities lose a whole bunch of human rights
protections. When this happens, the ability to lead a life of any sort
decreases and suicide rates increase.

The UK being "kinda-sorta part of the EU" is not a wonderful thing, but being
out of it entirely would be far worse for real people. Fight for more
integration with the EU if that's your thing.

I'll note that Scotland would likely become independent and join the EU a few
years after a British EU exit, but there's plenty of English, Welsh and
Northern Irish people who'd get stuck.

~~~
venomsnake
Cameron started treating it as a game. I just want to play in such a way to
make it best for europe. I am sick of British blackmail. Pax Britanica is
over. It is a small regional player. And I want it seen treated as. such. And
if minority protections are so important said minorities should have done more
for preventing him to come to power.

~~~
MLR
Categorising the UK as a small regional player shows a ridiculously limited
world view.

------
edko
The rest of the EU countries should also hold a referendum about granting the
UK these special conditions. It is very likely that, event after getting these
privileges, they will act as if they were making us a favor to stay. Just
leave. Maybe a free Scotland joins back in a few years.

~~~
Gmo
Agreed. I would love to be consulted on this deal. Because I don't think the
UK should get (any more) special rights. Stay as it is or leave, but why the
special treatment ?

------
bjourne
I hope Sweden leaves too, and/or Brexit causes the union to collapse. We have
paid billions in aid to the poorer EU countries for years and all we get back
are refugees, Romanian beggars and criminal gangs from the Balkans.

~~~
dang
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