

Man on the run: Former CIA spies on what they'd do if they were Snowden - rdl
http://www.andmagazine.com/content/phoenix/13012.html

======
runjake
With all due respect to the former CIA officers, there's a bunch of poor and
outdated advice in this article.

The one I'll point out is using a dead person's birth certificate to get ID
and an SSN. The databases for the death index were cleaned up after 9/11 and
if you try this, your attempt will be flagged and you'll likely be visited by
law enforcement pretty shortly. You will not get an ID nor an SSN.

The best way to hide is to not leave any (legitimate) money/electronic trails.
Practice disinformation. For example, use a credit card to buy a plane ticket
to Bangkok on Saturday, then go buy a bus ticket to Mongolia with cash for
Friday and similar tactics. It won't stop professionals from eventually
finding you, but it will buy you (sometimes significant) time.

All this is pointless because almost certainly the US IC knows exactly where
Snowden is already. It's laughable that anyone believes they're still
searching for Snowden.

~~~
psn
Your comment amuses. On the one hand, its possible that the CIA folks in the
article are offering bad advice, either knowingly or unknowingly. For example,
I imagine that the CIA has a guy in the basement making fake ids, rather than
having field agents make their own. On the other hand, I doubt you know more
about it than they do. Of course, you'd never show off your collection of fake
ids to win a internet argument...

~~~
Shish2k
> I imagine that the CIA has a guy in the basement making fake ids

As a government agency, don't they already have legitimate access to the real
ID printing machines?

~~~
andyjohnson0
The guy in the basement is making fake _non-US_ IDs.

~~~
narag
Why in the basement? Is it _illegal_?

Sorry, I'm flabbergasted at the legal/illegal discussion over massive spying
on non-US citizens.

------
einhverfr
In a couple points. Much of the advice may be more valid for overt CIA
operations than in Snowden's case. Snowden is writing his own rulebook and it
is based on a fairly narrow array of relatively novel tactics plus more
standard tools I suspect he picked up in his special forces training (remember
he has at least some special forces training).

A careful look at Snowden's tactics is that he is working off an understanding
at how to play various groups and people off eachother. He has a keen sense of
what everyone's interests are. His goal is not to be invisible but rather to
be too hot to handle for anyone.

~~~
taktix
I wish more people understood the situation like you, but there are many
fickle HN users who are silly putty in the hands of big media.

~~~
einhverfr
Also according to some sources he has been planning for years (according to
some sources he held off in 2008 because he was hoping for action by Obama).
He is uncommonly bright and prepared. I don't think the choice of regions or
timing can be a coincidence at all. He announced he was in Hong Kong when the
leaders of both Hong Kong and China were in the US, and he has managed to very
skilfully play various groups off eachother.

He almost comes across as too prepared. Occasionally I have wondered if
someone was coaching him, but if he has been planning for years, he could have
half a million dollars stashed somewhere (or at least a sizeable fraction of
that), and he may simply have spotted his opportunity and known it wouldn't
come again.

~~~
antimagic
On the other hand, I would have thought that he might have been better off
just letting himself get arrested in the US. He has the attention of the
world, and every time his case moved in court he would be on the front pages
again. I can't imagine the US government having the courage to face the public
opprobrium that would come with placing a whistleblower acting _for_ the
people in prison. This guy is no Bradley Manning - he wasn't revealing
legitimate US state secrets that could put innocent people in danger, he was
revealing potentially illegal behaviour of the US government with respect to
its own citizens.

Whilst on the run however he _can_ be "disappeared". How do we tell the
difference between a Snowden lying low in some forgotten corner of the world,
and a Snowden chained up in some forgotten US prison cell, or a Snowden burned
to ashes in a car in Afghanistan? In both cases he is invisible to us.
Dangerous, dangerous game. In fact it's so dangerous it's bordering on
unbelievable for me.

------
mindcrime
You almost wonder if he'd be better off "hiding in plain site" if he does
intend to hide, by staying in the (continental) US. I mean, the USA is a BIG
place, and outside the major cities, there are some damn remote areas in the
US, where the population density is pretty low, and you could probably hole up
out of site for quite some time and rarely even be seen. Look at how long Eric
Rudolph stayed hidden in the Appalachians, for example. Although, to be fair,
while he may not have been a "trained operative" he was apparently a
survivalist type, and had quite a bit of skill at living in the woods and
living off the land. I have no idea where Snowden falls on that.

But still, it's not that hard to find a job in the US doing some kind of
manual labor, where they don't ask for any ID, pay cash, don't pay any taxes,
and where the crew usually all go back to the bosses house and burn a few
joints after work. If you're willing to swing a hammer and can run a mitre-saw
and/or rip a piece of plywood on a table-saw, without cutting your hand off,
you can probably find a construction job working "under the table". Finding a
place to say would be tougher, since most (all?) US states require hotels /
motels / etc. to collect ID information. But if you can find somebody friendly
to let you crash on their couch, or find a low-paid motel clerk in some hick
town, who'll take a small "donation" in order to rent you a room without ID...

Bus around the country, move periodically, and dye your hair a different
color, grow a beard, let your hair grow out, and you could probably stay
hidden in the US for quite some time.

~~~
einhverfr
Actually he has been hiding in plain sight. His goal is not to be found. He
has told everyone where he is. He is writing his own rulebook and playbook. He
will be remarkably hard to touch.

He realizes he can't hide. He's taking quite a gambit with Hong Kong but the
calculations to do it have been extraordinarily well thought out.

~~~
mindcrime
I wouldn't necessarily classify what he's doing now as hiding, although he
does seem to have lowered his profile considerably the last couple of days.
But publicly he's said he doesn't really intend to hide, so I was speaking
more to the hypothetical case where he does decide to just flat out "go to
ground" and try to evade being found at all. As opposed to hoping the Hong
Kong government or some other political process will shield him.

------
guelo
The CIA is not going to disappear him now that he went public. And he can't
slip out of Hong Kong without everyone knowing. Seems to me that this can only
workout in one of two ways. Either he requests and receives asylum from some
3rd party country before the US requests extradition so that Hong Kong can't
stop him from leaving. But I suspect he has a short time window to make this
happen, maybe only days before the US delivers the extradition request. At
which point Hong Kong will probably take his passport.

If that doesn't happen then it'll just work its ways though the Hong Kong
courts. If he attempts a legal delay and obstruction tactic similar to Assange
it could take years. Meanwhile the US demonization will continue and the
US/China/Hong Kong politics will wax and wane. But most probably he'd end up
in a US jail eventually, with all the political fallout that that will entail.

~~~
rdtsc
He could be somewhat valuable for the Chinese in countering some PR claims
against itself -- "China is monitoring dissidents", "China is hacking peaceful
countries" etc etc. All that is true, but now that they have him in exchange
of asylum he could become a talking head for them so they can now say "Aha,
but US can't tell us anything concerting privacy, look at what they are
doing!" And then invite him on a TV show to describe all the massive NSA
surveillance apparatus.

What would he do? Would he cooperate with the traditional enemy? That might
put his motives in question and he would become an easier target to slander.
("aha, he was a traitor all along, a Chinese spy etc etc.")

~~~
aptwebapps
It wouldn't work for the reason in your second paragraph: he would loose too
much credibility if he was seen as a mouthpiece for China.

------
toddh
A large house in a suburban neighborhood in Pakistan has proven to be an
excellent place to hide.

~~~
gadders
Yes, but you need ISI support to pull that one off.

------
varjag
I never seen so many former federal employees promoting their books in one
post.

~~~
mahmud
And not just any federal employees: spooks. Gotta milk that James Bond cachet,
I guess ;-)

~~~
varjag
It's funny how they all seem to be rather theoretic, context-free comments,
not taking the details of Snowden's circumstances in account. He wasn't really
trying to hide, otherwise he wouldn't have made a public statement from a
known location.

And it seems most of those spooks interviewed never actually had to run for
their life, putting their theories to the test.

------
fnordfnordfnord
Everyone seems to think this guy should go and hide. But if he is hiding he
can't defend himself publicly. I think we all know that the US can eventually
find him. We also know that if he is found cowering in some hole, far from
media scrutiny, that he's likely to be killed, or secretly rendered for
torture. Retreating to a semi-friendly place like HK where the press might not
be completely captured by US influence, where the gov't might not be
completely pliable may have been the best thing he could have done.

------
Pherdnut
Are the CIA basically the not-so-bad guys now? Seems like they haven't been
busted for doing anything super-nasty lately.

~~~
tptacek
You mean besides running the secret prisons? It's exactly the opposite for me;
I can deal with the NSA overreaching on surveillance (so long as they
occasionally get slapped back), but the CIA is a national embarrassment.

------
kunai
This really sounds like something straight out of some Ludlum book, which,
incidentally, I loved.

This is by no means advice for Snowden, but it's worth a shot.

When you're on the run, burn your passport. Get rid of your wallet except for
cash. If you can, withdraw as much cash as possible and close your bank
accounts. Toss your wallet in a fire, taking only cash. Get rid of any
physical attributes that could be used to easily find you. If you wear the
same type of shirt every day, wear a different one every day. Shave your
facial hair, and get a new hairdo.

Be a nomad. Sleep in homeless shelters, and go from place to place, never
staying in one location too long. Set false breadcrumbs, like Facebook logins,
at strategic locations. Map out a route of where you plan to go, and map out
the route where you'll leave linked IPs, logins, property along the way, maybe
make a call or two with a prepaid phone and dispose of it.

When your money supply is running low, forge your own identity. Create a new
name, with a new ethnicity. Get a job. Live there for a while, never getting
too close to anyone. Disappear. Get off the grid permanently. If the United
States approves a pardon, then show up only after 4 months, it could be a
decoy.

Always stay on the run. And never. Trust. Anyone.

\------

for added effect, listen to
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dc7qiosq4m4](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dc7qiosq4m4)

~~~
contingencies
Snowden could enter China without paperwork from Hong Kong.

Once inside, train travel (usually, though this may have changed a year or so
ago) or long distance bus travel requires no identification and there are a
huge number of long and porous land borders to cross, particularly in the
Southeast Asian direction. Though he'd want to avoid part of the Vietnam one
due to the likelihood of leftover land mines.

The Shan, Wa and Kachin armies in northern Burma are known to be extremely
hospitable to visitors. Likewise, it's easy to stay off the grid in Laos for
decades.

While in China, the lack of a passport could be explained with an easily faked
'receipt' from any semi-local embassy: "they're making me a visa". This would
of course gel with one's travel story. (Hint: Between Hong Kong and SEA
borders there are international consulates for SEA nations in Nanning and
Kunming.)

(Edit: Cambodia has few hills. Vietnam has too high a population density. Laos
is a reasonable option. The Shan State Army is perhaps too affiliated with
neighbouring powers. The Wa or Kachin would be better destinations, the latter
are also near completely Christian due to US missionary activity, and on bad
terms with the central Burmese authorities of late so less likely to hand
people over. All in all, the Kachin would be a good bet.)

~~~
mahmud
Have to disagree on many counts. Though not the visa-receipt thing, that was
brilliant ;-)

1) Chinese public transport is subject to random stops and searches. Everyone
has to show identification.

2) The Chinese borders with Vietnam and Laos are not exactly tourist
destinations. The place is rife with ethnic tensions and saturated with
military presence, due to opium trafficking, smuggling of goods, and that
little war between Vietnam and China.

3) The hill-tribe and minority "armies" (gangs?) are just 2nd-rate heroin
traffickers, and that region is one of the most heavily infiltrated by intel,
specially Thai. Thailand is one of the closest U.S. allies, right up there
with Colombia and Jordan in terms of ass-kissing to State Department.

4) Both China and Vietnam are police states; any whiff of him and they can
mobilize undercover cops of an entire city. Hotel and taxi operators are the
gov's eyes and ears. Not to mention you're _required_ to register your
movement with nearest police station (no one ever does this ;-)

Bangkok would have been a perfect option, since the people are desensitized to
white men and no one would notice him.

~~~
contingencies
1) Not that random, but yeah, hence the 'my passports getting a visa in some
consulate' note (easily forged). 2) Your info is maybe 30 years out of date.
It's one of the largest tourism destinations in the country. I know, I lived
there five years. 3) The Shan State Army are ethnic Tai speakers, so yeah,
maybe. But further west, the Wa and yet further the Kachin are more
independent. 4) It's not hard to find hotels that don't care about
registration. Even if they do register, few report identities to the police
immediately. Even if they report immediately, few cops are going to be
bothered to check. By the time they do, you're gone.

Bangkok is indeed a good destination, except, as you point out, that Thailand
is a major US ally.

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syncerr
If he's smart, he's not even in Hong Kong anymore, nor has he been for some
time.

Prerecorded video explicitly stating where he's located? Seems like a ruse.

------
rdl
I assume he's actually in a journalist's apartment, not going out.
Intelligence agencies may know where he is, but no one is going to go after
him.

------
itazula
While trekking The Peak (formerly Victoria Peak) in Hong Kong, I ran into a
housekeeper walking the family dog. We saw a group of men getting into a very
nice car. She mentioned to me that the license plate on the car allows them to
travel into China without the usual checks.

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tn13
I think the best alternative for him is to get himself arrested in a wide
public eye.

I am absolutely sure that several people would come up in his support. He can
turn himself into a symbol. Any court case around him will be closely followed
and analyzed.

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exit
hey, maybe he has some bitcoins

------
codeulike
Did he plan for a picture of his face to be plastered all over every news site
for a week? Presumably yes, in which case he's probably not planning on trying
to disappear.

------
tn13
I will not be surprised if he is found dead by killing himself like Aron
Swarz.

~~~
6d0debc071
"How do you know it was suicide."

"There was a note. Jimmy, have they found the note yet?..."

------
itazula
All of your comments have been duly noted. ;-)

