
Platform wars: the final score - prostoalex
http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2016/7/25/platform-wars-final-score
======
Illniyar
So he predicts the amount of smartphones to double from 2.5b to 5b, implying
that the majority of it will be android phones, but the "Platform wars" are
over?

Nothing is over, even the "browser war" is now back on in full force, I
suspect a new operating system (or perhaps windows 10? who knows) will emerge
that will challenge both iOS and Android. Why? because something like this
always does.

~~~
CaptSpify
I kind of agree. I have no stats for this, but my impression is that neither
Android nor iPhone users are really happy with their devices, they just
tolerate them. That sounds like a ripe market for a disruptor.

~~~
bendiksolheim
I think that impression might be quite subjective – my impression is the exact
opposite. I don't have any numbers either, but most people I know, both
Android users and iOS users, are quite happy with their devices. They do of
course have minor issues, but that will almost always be the case with
something targeting such a broad audience.

I am not sure how I could be more happy with my device. Right now it mostly
does what I want it to do, the battery lasts a couple of days, and it rarely
bugs out.

edited: changed "really" to "more" in the second paragraph.

~~~
Swizec
How about a smaller (but not thinner) phone that is strong enough to act as a
laptop when hooked up to monitor/keyboard/mouse?

That would be cool. Give me a 3GHz i7 quadcore with 500gb ssd that I can also
put in my pocket and have the battery last 2 days.

Always having 2 or 3 expensive computers on my person seems dumb.

------
mrmondo
I think what's lacking here is a real definition of what 'winning' means.

~~~
lloeki
1\. survival: is the platform expected to be alive after next year?

2\. relevance: is the platform even considered for any reasonable, non-niche
task, use, or development?

3\. influence: is the platform halo strong enough that it can nurture/trigger
changes outside the platform (feature parity, pressure to improve/innovate)?

Apple and Google cross all thresholds by a significant margin, and adding more
numbers (doubling even) to either one will not change that. "Winning" is not
about market share as an end.

At a vanishingly distant 3rd and 4th places, MS is desperately fighting for 1.
and 2. (and can only do so thanks to the now unified Windows platform), while
BB has clearly lost 2. and is arguably losing 1. Don't even talk about 3. for
either one.

~~~
mrmondo
Absolutely could not agree with you more!

One thing I'd add - likely related closely to survival and relevance is around
product sustainability and platform responsibility - I'm talking mainly in
regards to consistently demonstrating due-diligence of maintaining, servicing
and supporting the platform / services such as widespread, timely security
patching controlled and measured across a reasonable age range of products
while also responsibly protecting customer privacy.

While on the surface this may seem more like measures of product quality
rather than success - I believe they are critically important, key indicators
of a successful product / deliverable.

As you say - winning is not solely about market share or pure profit, but also
sustainability and social responsibility which in turn then feeds back into
both relevance and survival in the long run.

*Pleasse excuse any typos, rushed my reply just on my phone late at night when I should be sleeping.

------
kazinator
> _Apple and Google won_

How can the war be over when two rivals are standing?

Unless the objective of any war in the computing arena is to be understood as:
"Microsoft is not there".

Another definition of "war is over" might be that everyone has some open
hardware in their hands (that they actually own), which runs a fully open
source everything from the boot firmware through to the system UI and apps. In
other words "Microsoft is not there; Google is not there; Apple is not there
..."

~~~
mwfunk
I assumed the author meant that the market had stabilized and the period where
you might see large gains or losses by the individual players over small spans
of time (like a year) is over. The war metaphor is just a metaphor after all
(and a pretty lousy one at that, clearly).

~~~
kazinator
So, effectively, there is a "ceasefire".

------
ZeroGravitas
In the comments there's an interesting take on the Wintel era desktop wars,
apparently Apple wins that decisively, as long as you don't count Microsoft.

I wonder if that will be the long term view on Android vs iOS, that Apple won
it as long as you focus on Lenovo and HTC and Samsung and other manufacturers
and ignore Google.

Though as Google seems a little bit less focussed on capturing all the
profits, possibly everyone will benefit from the competition.

------
billpg
If anyone needs me, I'll be sulking in the corner with my Windows Phone.

~~~
skc
I really do miss my Windows Phone, which has sort of surprised me, having
expected to be wowed by current Android device.

The app gap is/was a brutal death blow to an otherwise very nice platform.

~~~
paulryanrogers
Sometimes I feel this way. Yet I wonder if it's just that my WP didn't have
many apps. Had it been fully loaded the battery and speed advantages may have
disappeared.

------
untilHellbanned
This is another vague post by Ben Evans. His work goes after the hot topics
and either states the obvious or makes several low information content, i.e.,
not disapprovable points. Sorry to be negative but not seeing in his work
what's that interesting to discuss.

~~~
randall
Ad Hominem, while not completely useless, is still less useful than discussing
specifics of vagueness in a comment.

If you want to add to the discussion constructively, maybe consider more
specifics about why the vagueness is annoying?

~~~
vilmosi
It's not ad hominem, he talks specifically about the article, not the person.

>>> His work goes after the hot topics and either states the obvious or makes
several low information content, i.e., not disapprovable points

~~~
randall
"his work" not specifically how the work does it.

------
JustUhThought
The Chinese and Indian markets are just now beginning to wake up. Even if it
were reasonable to say anything is ever settled in the technology space
(Blackberry anyone?), given that companies coming out of these new markets are
sending clear signals they intend to make their own way, given saturation of
the mobile market in these economies is incomplete, given their governments'
are more explicitly hands on with issues of technology and it's social
implications, given their clear break with U.S. policy on I.P. (be it
technology or pharmaceuticals),,, I'd hardly feel comfortable putting my money
on the "it's all settled" bet.

------
perseusprime11
Things shake up all the time. Take the example of Microsoft announcing the ML
based Editor feature yesterday, a number of people in my office were genuinely
excited to use Word after that. Bottom line is things come from left field
from time to time and it is foolish to predict things.

------
sievebrain
I guess the most interesting move possible now is what happens if Android does
a desktop/laptop edition and starts trying to compete with MacOS/Windows in
the business space.

~~~
kbart
I doubt that. Google bets on cloud solutions, so you can get Google "OS" on
any device that's capable of running a modern browser.

------
sharemywin
I'm not sure the point if I were going to develop an app today I would
probably use xamarin because it could be developed a lot cheaper for both
platforms.

