
Global Markets, Initially Shaken, Edge Higher After Trump Victory - samsolomon
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/business/dealbook/stock-markets-election.html
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rdtsc
Was watching NBC news last night (for entertainment, I added them to the "fun
stations" list along with "Fox"). And it was funny how they were baffled and
backpedaling hard on why Trump won, and they never expected it.

However, one thing that seemed to make them happy was the stock markets. "Oh
look, stocks are crashing worldwide" and they kept belaboring that point, as a
validation in a way "see we warned you how bad Trump was" kind of sentiment.

For example US Steel (X) jumped a whopping 20% since yesterday. Something
tells me they probably won't be focusing on that.

One wonders, does anyone there look around and say "What have we become? Are
we just clowns here making stuff up? What if we actually tried to tell the
truth, maybe just turn the spin level from 9 to a 3 and see what happens... as
an experiment"

~~~
matwood
CNN was hilarious. King and Blizter kept looking at one county in WI, saying
'just wait'. You could tell they were not really mad as obvious HRC
supporters, but just completely shell shocked on what they witnessed. By the
end, they kept going back to that county looking for magical votes to appear I
guess.

Meanwhile, the NYT website had Trump as the >95% winner a couple hours prior.

~~~
mstade
The NYT site seemed to hone in on results pretty quickly and accurate overall.
Pretty impressive work!

~~~
m_mueller
Funny how yesterday there were posters here accusing the NYT model as pro
Hillary biased. What could they do better if the polls were simply wrong?
Their election day forecast model was pretty impressive - it detected the
swing early in the evening.

~~~
mstade
Yeah, it was a depressing read for Hillary supporters. I was hoping their
models were wrong but they were pretty much dead on almost everywhere. It
swung a lot in some places like Florida, but it got Wisconsin right pretty
early on. From a geek perspective it was definitely interesting to track.

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chollida1
Two points come to mind here, wrt the markets.

1) All the volatility happened in the after hours. If you just ignored the
markets when they were closed, today you are pleasantly surprised, assuming
you are the typical long only investor. Don't watch the markets, especially in
the after hours.

Heck don't watch them on a day to day basis unless its in your job
description. Life is stressful enough that you don't need to watch what your
google/amazon/etc RSU's will be worth on a daily basis.

2) There is an order type called stop loss. These were useful in the 90's but
haven't really had a good use since about 2005.

They allow a user to "lock in gains" or halt losses by being an order that is
triggered if the markets hit a certain level. Essentially the order isn't live
until its limit is crossed and then the order becomes valid.

Unfortunately if markets move alot you can get your order hit to close our
your position during a momentary drop or flash crash.

Nowadays with market's more likely to have short term volatility stop loss
orders aren't really an order type that anyone should use, ever.

The NYSE and Nasdaq are doing away with these orders but alot of regular
investors with self directed accounts have been brought up thinking that using
a stop loss order is a good idea.

it never is...ever.

[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nyse-joining-nasdaq-in-
elim...](http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nyse-joining-nasdaq-in-eliminating-
stop-orders-2015-11-18)

~~~
pbreit
Re #1, but that was all "real" market activity, right? Was it mainly that
overseas traders were just a lot more pessimistic?

~~~
matwood
It's real, but volume is typically much much lower so it tends to exaggerate
in either direction. I stopped trading futures at night because lower volumes
messed up my strategies.

~~~
pbreit
The volume on S&P and DJIA futures surely is sufficient to be legit?

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ddoran
It's not all positive. Gun makers Smith Wesson [SWHC, -16.13%] and Sturm Ruger
[RGR, -14.44%] down massively on the day as Trump supporters won't be rushing
out to take arms against a Democrat government they refuse to recognize.

~~~
gdulli
It's more likely due to this:
[http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/11/gun-ballot-
initi...](http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/11/gun-ballot-initiatives-
passed)

~~~
h4nkoslo
Gun control is great for gun sales - California for instance is seeing an
unprecedented boom in the run-up to their legislation kicking in on Jan 1.

The lack of gun control legislation prospectively coming from a President
Trump, as opposed to HRC's platform of re-enacting the assault weapons ban
etc., is driving those stocks lower.

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readhn
The guy is a speculator first of all so the market understands him very well
and he understands the market. He is not going to do anything stupid as he
knows there will be immediate negative consequences. He is actually in a hard
position now to deliver middle class America it's jobs without generating some
short term pain first. Yeah block China and watch that toilet paper cost climb
2-3x and see how adorable things are now middle America. Yes kick out illegal
workers and watch those tomatoes go for 10$ per pound. Its all bs fellas and
it's bad for You.

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tedunangst
But I was promised the crash would teach Trump voters a lesson!

~~~
sharemywin
Let's see how his trade wars versus his massive tax holidays play out.

I think the market thinks he's bluffing on the trade wars.

~~~
gdulli
He's had so many contradictory positions and has so clearly made up certain
positions solely to manipulate voters that no one really knows how he'll
govern.

~~~
noobermin
Didn't stop him from getting elected.

~~~
gdulli
Right. I don't think Americans are upset because he's President so much as
we're upset because we found out 60 million citizens of our country are people
who in general would vote for an absolutely disgusting person who campaigned
on transparent, trivially disproven lies and racist demagoguery.

~~~
CocaKoala
This is what really bums me out.

I have a lot of issues with the rhetoric of Donald Trump, and of the
Republican Party in general. This is not what I want to have our presidential
elections be, and I feel now that the lesson is "Lying constantly, being rude
and temperamental and petty, campaigning on vague and meaningless statements
that nobody expects you to hold WORKS and can win you elections."

What happens in 2020, when Donald Trump runs for re-election? Is he going to
temper his rhetoric and run a more moderate campaign that isn't based on
falsehoods and insults, or is he going to double down on what's been
established to work?

I feel like the state of political discourse in the country has been severely
changed, and I definitely don't think it's for the better.

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Animats
DJIA 18,502.47 ▲ 169.73 (0.93%)

Last night DJIA futures dropped several hundred points, but that didn't
translate to the actual stocks today.

~~~
matt_wulfeck
They started paring losses almost immediately as he was making his victory
speech, which was refreshingly magnanimous.

I believe the markets wanted stability more than anything else. If he would
have mentioned during his speech his desire to prosecute Hillary etc, I think
that would have really affected the markets in a very bad way.

~~~
adamiscool8
But to write off his rhetoric and uncertainty on the artifical stock market,
phony QE-driven economy, auditing the fed, protectionism, etc. on the way to
new all-time highs? Perplexing.

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bjourne
It's so silly that people still assign intent to stock market movements.
Stocks go up when gamblers/speculators/investors think they will go up and
down when they think they will go down. Didn't we learn anything from fucking
_yesterday_ when the markets indicated a clear victory for Clinton?

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snikeris
No discussion about what's going on with treasuries today?

~~~
notirk
Could you expand for those not in the know?

~~~
shoover
There was a relatively large upward movement in yields today (and
corresponding downward movement in price).

I bought a few with cash on hand in the retirement and college savings
accounts.

From Google Finance:

    
    
      Bonds [yields]
      3 Month	0.42%	+0.02 (5.00%)
      6 Month	0.53%	+0.03 (6.00%)
      2 Year	0.90%	+0.07 (8.43%)
      5 Year	1.48%	+0.12 (8.82%)
      10 Year	2.07%	+0.12 (6.15%)
      30 Year	2.86%	+0.10 (3.62%)

~~~
illumin8
This is actually much more indicative of the economic direction the market
thinks we will be headed in. Hint: it's not good.

The bond market is extraordinarily efficient at pricing risk, and right now,
they're beginning to price a significant risk of a long-term US default.

~~~
b_emery
So buyers of these things think interest rates will be lower in the future (eg
due to poor economy and further stimulus perhaps?)

~~~
shoover
Yes, or at least as insurance in case interest do go lower.

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return0
The markets proved smart. In contrast to brexit, it seems they had a better
hunch than the pollsters. Also, it seems Brexit is still more uncertainty to
the markets than Trump.

~~~
VMG
Betting markets did not prove themselves however. Just like with Brexit, they
were in line with the polls and only reverse at the last minute:
[https://i.imgur.com/tEDdMpT.png](https://i.imgur.com/tEDdMpT.png) (from
[https://electionbettingodds.com/WIN_chart_maxim_lott_john_st...](https://electionbettingodds.com/WIN_chart_maxim_lott_john_stossel.html))

~~~
return0
I'm happy to report i bet early on trump and reaped the rewards!

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mlinksva
Earlier indicator that traders expect higher volatility under Trump
[https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/what-
do...](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/what-do-financial-
markets-think-of-the-2016-election_102016_wolferszitzewitz.pdf)

