
Big Oil Is in Trouble. Its Plan: Flood Africa with Plastic - adrian_mrd
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/30/climate/oil-kenya-africa-plastics-trade.html
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chriselles
Is Big Oil really in trouble?

Or is it just the aspiration of so many hoping Big Oil is in trouble?

EVs are starting to sell in some volume in some locations.

Exxon Mobil has just been replaced on the S&P 500.

CV19 work from home is limiting some people’s personal direct use of liquid
energy.

But it wouldn’t be embellishment to say we die without liquid energy.

If I had to make one single bet with a 5-10 year time horizon it would be
going long on Big Oil.

Exxon Mobil’s specifically, due to it having the largest war chest, proven
reserves in stable countries, and extraction technology.

I look forward to a post-petroleum economy, but we aren’t going to get there
today, tomorrow, or next week.

~~~
aliswe
Haven't read the article yet, but it's relieving to see that someone else
other than me have identified the phenomenon: "Or is it just the aspiration of
so many hoping Big Oil is in trouble?"

Newspaper writers too often impose their own ideals on observations to
exaggerate or sometimes even "fabricate" trends.

Unfortunately, I fail to find any examples off the top of my head. But there,
I've said it anyway.

~~~
chriselles
I know Warren Buffett is catching heat lately for his poor investment returns.

But it's worth looking at his recent investments in 2019 in energy and gold
mining.

He didn't buy them for 12+ months, he bought them for 12+ years.

I genuinely look forward to a post-petroleum economy, but it's going to take a
long time to get there.

The extreme volatility from CV19 shockwaves, including short-term energy price
collapse, is going to have consequences.

Some of those consequences are likely to include increased instability in
peripheral energy producing nations with high production costs.

Even Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran will be suffering quite considerably from
the decline in energy prices. It may be 10x in peripheral energy production
dependent nations.

That increased risk of instability could lead to conflict and supply
contraction and rising energy prices(over time).

It's worth looking at the 80's Oil Glut and the impact it had on the world.

The Soviet Union fell and the First Iraq War both occurred in the wake of the
Oil Glut as both the Soviet Union and Saddam's Iraq were facing severe
economic crisis as a direct result of the glut.

I wrote a piece on it that got published:
[https://madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil/223-contagion-
covid-19s-i...](https://madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil/223-contagion-
covid-19s-impact-on-operational-environment-
part-1/?doing_wp_cron=1598822358.2033779621124267578125)

~~~
perl4ever
>He didn't buy them for 12+ months, he bought them for 12+ years

He just turned 90, didn't he? A standard actuarial table says his life
expectancy is 4 years or so. There is absolutely nothing he can do any more as
an investor, that will meaningfully impact his life, so his decisions mean
nothing.

~~~
chriselles
Well, he is investing on behalf of his Berkshire Hathaway shareholders.

~~~
perl4ever
Yes, of course. I'm saying there are no consequences for _him_ , positive or
negative. He'll never know what the outcome is of anything long term. Buying
gold and energy has no more weight, for him, than just expressing an opinion.
He not only can't lose anything, but he can't even be embarrassed, in the long
run.

