
The Illusion of Competence - DiabloD3
https://aeon.co/ideas/what-know-it-alls-dont-know-or-the-illusion-of-competence
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rwmj
_" One study found that 80 per cent of drivers rate themselves as above
average – a statistical impossibility"_

In a driving test, five drivers score 100, 100, 100, 100, 90. The average is
98, and so 80% of them are above average.

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dreamcompiler
Lay people confuse average with median. When you ask someone if they're "above
average" they often assume you mean "in the top half of the population in
ability" which is "above median." In which case 80% is impossible.

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ranit
What you say might be true, but the article is written by "the editor in chief
of Knowing Neurons and a PhD candidate in neuroscience at the University of
California". It seems that not only lay people confuse statistics terms, but
also the very people that make research and present the results. And this is
sad ... and in line with the article in some sense.

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zorak
I just want to be clear... Are you implying that the author doesn't understand
the difference between different measures of central tendency?

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mcphage
> Are you implying that the author [a PhD candidate in neuroscience] doesn't
> understand the difference between different measures of central tendency?

They probably are. There's this tendency in geek circles to assume that
someone—especially an expert in another field—doesn't know what they're
talking about unless they spell it out in such excruciating detail that those
geeks (who actually _don 't_ know what they're talking about) can follow along
as well.

I don't know why it is, and it's frustrating as hell. It seems like it's
related to the Principle of Charity, but I don't know if it's the same thing,
or just a similar thing.

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zorak
Glad to read this. I thought I might be the only one picking up on the irony
here. I mean, come on. He JUST read about D-K, then demonstrates it in action.

~~~
mcphage
I agree, although as I said to another commenter, I'm more bothered by
assuming others to be incompetent even though they are, than I am by assuming
yourself to be competent when you're not. And they're related, but not quite
the same?

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trendia
Consider if every person thought he/she was in the 60%ile for some skill.
Then, the best people would underestimate their skill and the worst would
overestimate.

This would produce the statistical results of the Dunning Kruger test, but I
don't think that's nearly as exciting as what is claimed.

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cortesoft
I was thinking this as I read it, and the author seemed to be shocked that
both extremes of the bell curve thought of themselves as being more average.
That just seems logical, to assume you are average.

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jachee
Ever since I learned about Dunning-Krueger, I've systematically questioned
many things to which I would normally feel competence or expertise.

It's basically redoubled my Imposter Syndrome. It's not crippling, but I often
wonder: "Do I _actually_ know this? Do I know enough to know it if I don't?"

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zorak
I wonder how expertise in one domain translates to D-K effect in other
domains.

~~~
Graziano_M
I'm a software engineer so I can confidently say that it does not.

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jimhefferon
So, what does convince the least knowledgeable?

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zorak
I have seen D-K written about in the context of beginner-experts; people that
don't have more knowledgeable peers to help them see the limitations of what
they know (think one-man IT team in a small company, or angry drunk Uncle
rambling on about politics in the recliner).

My observation is that D-K comes up in areas that people think are easy to
understand (but are actually complex). Especially if the person comes from a
domain with high perceived complexity. Example would be computer scientist
discussing education or psychology... That seems to be ripe territory for D-K.

~~~
mcphage
> people that don't have more knowledgeable peers to help them see the
> limitations of what they know

I've definitely met people like that; people who are used to being the
smartest people in the room, and so when they make pronouncements without
thinking long about a problem, everyone around them is used to assuming what
they say is right, because they're smart.

And once they're around other smart people, it's like talking to a brick
wall—they're so used to everyone else accepting their bullshit, that they
don't know how to handle being called on it, and they don't know how to defend
their ideas because they've never had to before.

Oy. Frustrating people.

