
6 charts to help Americans understand the upcoming German elections - digitalime
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/six-charts-to-help-americans-understand-the-upcoming-german-election/
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erikb
A few points from a German:

It is not true that the Left is more liberal. They are more socialist, which
is simply not listed in these article's diagrams. A strong socialist
pariticipation in Germany results from a huge part of it being under Soviet
control for a few decades.

It is also not true that neither top party has aimed at the social system.
Both actually do try to minimize it. But they frame it into pro-social-system-
wording because otherwise the people would start to fight them.

In terms of climate change we actually found a great way to make a profit from
it. Since we are one of the high tech leaders in the world and climate save
technologies are usually high tech, we can use that to gain bigger global
market shares in many markets that were locked up previously.

Why is 3000€ considered high income? Is that post-tax? Pretax it's less than
what Germans would expect with a college degree or higher.

I consider myself liberal, education, high tech focussed. But I would also
agree that Islam is political and not just religious. Just look at its
history. That statement alone doesn't mean one should fight Islam. The bad
thing about hte AfD is that they want to fight Muslems. Educated people of
course frown upon discriminating on such a simple fact.

~~~
pjc50
> It is not true that the Left is more liberal. They are more socialist, which
> is simply not listed in these article's diagrams

This is an important point which trying to ram non-US political parties into a
US-based single left-right spectrum does not account for.

Another important distinction which people miss is "Islam" (the religion) vs
"Islamism" (its involvement in politics).

~~~
erikb
Yes, in Germany left means Socialist, right means Fascist, and the
differentiation between conservatism and progressiveness is actually something
you can find in each of the corners. I also believe that Germany is not the
only country like that. E.g. I have just finished watching season 3 of the tv
show Narcos and it seems to me as if in Colombia this distinction also exists
and it is enforced even stronger, with the liberal power being in government,
and both left socialist and right fascist parties being military forces on the
outskirts (considering the ability to kill as a political power as well).

I agree that there is a distinction between Islam and Islamism. However I
wouldn't say one is political the other religious. In the same way we can't
put German parties on a US spectrum, we can't put Islam on a Christian
spectrum. For Islam politics and religion are not two separate topics. It's
one topic. If there's a distinction for Muslims it is for other factors, which
I sadly don't know however. (If a Muslim reads it feel free to educate me on
that part. I'm certainly interested)

~~~
pluma
Maajid Nawaz would disagree with your assessment of Islam and Islamism.

For Christianity politics and religion used to be as inseparable as they are
for Islam today. Not so long ago most heads of state were subject to the
Vatican (whether ceremonially or literally) and granted their authority by
divine privilege alone.

The separation of church and state in the Christian world is largely a
relatively new phenomenon and ultimately dates back to the Peace of Westphalia
(the 17th century is much closer to the present day than to the birth of
Christianity) which established the counter-intuitive idea that it's okay for
other nations to have other religious beliefs than your own.

For many Muslims today, Islam _is_ Islamism, with varying degrees of urgency,
but that doesn't mean you can't have Islam without Islamism or that you
shouldn't make the distinction. Islam is just lagging behind Christianity when
it comes to holy wars and acceptance of other faiths (even other sects of
Islam itself). There are plenty of explanations for why that is the case and
not few of them at least partially blame the West, but it's an evolution
that's still happening in Islam and that needs to happen for Islam to
peacefully coexist with other religions and the non-religious.

~~~
pjc50
Indeed. Not to mention that German politics has both a "Christian Democratic
Union" and "Christian Social Union". Let's not pretend that the West is a nice
cleanly separated secularist utopia.

~~~
pluma
True. The only secular countries in "the West" I can think of are Turkey and
France. And sadly Turkey has very nearly abandoned their secular foundations
by embracing Erdoğanism.

However despite Germany's faults at least Germany is not Christian by law. The
reason Islam doesn't enjoy the same privileges as mainstream Christianity is
that Christians are better organised and less sectarian.

The _Catholic Church in Germany_ needs no explanation but the _Evangelical
Church in Germany_ is a union of Lutherans, Calvinists and other protestants.
The Islamic sects are far too disunited to form an alliance like this. A
single Islamic faith group (Ahmadiyya) managed to organise as a public
corporation (i.e. a recognised religious group) and they only exist in two out
of Germany's 16 states and represent a minority group compared to other
Islamic sects.

To give you a better idea, here's the list of recognised religious groups in
the most populous state of Germany:

[http://www.bmi.bund.de/PERS/DE/Themen/Informationen/Religion...](http://www.bmi.bund.de/PERS/DE/Themen/Informationen/Religionsgemeinschaften/kirche_nrw.html)

Most of them are Christian, even including Mennonites and Jehova's Wittnesses.
There are also numerous Jewish communities. There's even a Hindu temple. Yet
not a single Islamic group. This isn't the result of a Christian bias, it's
entirely on the Islamic communities.

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readittwice
I will probably get down-voted for that, but personally I do think that the
AfD adds value to the democratic system in Germany. In my whole life I haven't
experienced a single other topic that's so controversial and influential as
the whole immigration/refugee-crisis. Merkel gets criticized a lot for her
open-border policy, but actually in Germany her party is still the most-
restrictive in this regard except for the AfD. You can see that e.g. in the
current discussion where social democrats want to allow all refugees to bring
their relatives to Germany (right now this is only possible for a part of
them). Merkel first wants to see if the number of people is manageable for
Germany and want's to make the decision later (so after the election ;).

To show its importance even in 2017: In the yesterday's tv confrontation
between Merkel and the social-democrats front runner, immigration was the
first and longest discussed topic. I believe that even in a country with
Germany's history, there has to be a party where people who disagree or are
concerned with the recent decisions about immigration should be represented.
You would do democracy a disfavor if you try to cut out the AfD or their
voters from the public discourse.

I know they have some politicians with quite extreme views which they haven't
got rid of. And they will pay the price for that by getting a lot less votes.
Maybe it's also since I am not a German and therefore don't follow german
domestic policy as close as many Germans do.

Personally I try to imagine the two leading parties in Austria having the same
stance on immigration as in Germany. This would end in a disaster for them in
the next election, which is shortly after the german election.

~~~
majewsky
> I do think that the AfD adds value to the democratic system in Germany.

Agreed. I dislike them and their views just as much as the next leftist, but
they represent the opinions of a (small but) significant share of the German
populace, and these ought to be represented by parliament proportionally.

------
dvfjsdhgfv
The language used to describe AfD is strikingly similar to the one used to
describe Trump supporters prior to the elections. The truth is, the influx of
immigrants is a real problem in Germany, although in some places is felt more
than in others. Normal people turn to AfD for help, not because they're
aggressive or hateful. It's difficult to even have a civilized discussion
about it without being labelled as "racist" or "extreme right-wing".
(Fortunately, the label "Nazi" is rarely used, it's more American domain these
days.)

~~~
vacri
It's a false equivalency, comparing Trump supporters to similar in other
countries. The AfD gets 5% of the vote. Trump got nearly 50% of the vote.
Every population has its extremist idiots, but for nearly 50% of voters to
willingly cast their vote for such an obscenely obvious conman? No, the AfD
situation is nothing like Trump - there is no danger of AfD 'running the
show'.

~~~
pluma
It's improbable that the AfD will get enough votes to become a part of the
government but I don't find it at all unlikely that they'll perform better
than the polls suggest, especially considering the recent failures of polls in
other countries.

The AfD is much more socially acceptable than the NPD ever was. It's largely
seen as a "protest party" and the general consensus that they have no chance
of being part of any government coalition only helps support that.

------
Ryan001
You may have heard rumblings about a populist party poised to gain power in
Germany’s election on Sept. 24 — or maybe you just heard that there’s an
election coming up. The party vote might seem strange — candidates usually
belong to parties already, the way they do in the U.S. — but it exists to make
sure the Bundestag reflects the party preferences of the overall electorate.
To achieve the right proportions, the total number of representatives in the
Bundestag can vary with each federal election, but it is always at least 598.
Unless a single party wins a simple majority — which is rare — multiple
parties will need to join forces to form a governing coalition that,
collectively makes up at least 50 percent of the Bundestag.

------
vacri
Curious that in the geographical support charts, The Left is on the right :)

~~~
pluma
The Left was the result of a merger with the PDS, which was the successor to
the socialist party of East Germany (the German Democratic Republic).

Fun fact: There's a commonly held misbelief that the AfD is popular in the
East because it's the East but it seems to actually correlate more strongly
with lack of ethnic/cultural diversity and low population density.

------
UncleSlacky
This is probably a better way of visualizing the parties:
[https://politicalcompass.org/germany2017](https://politicalcompass.org/germany2017)

------
TeMPOraL
What about the Pirate Party? I hoped I'd see Piratenpartei Deutschland in the
elections...

~~~
erikb
I'd hope so too, but honestly they have lost a lot since 2013, and not just
votes. Also actual political goals. And while the hopes for political
seriousness and organisation quality are increasing, the actual implementation
seems to stagnate.

------
emdubs
631 representatives for ~82 million people

vs. 535 representatives for ~323 million people in the US

The arbitrary capping of the size of the House of Representatives to 435
members is one of the biggest issues I have with the structure of the US
legislature.

------
pluma
I'm not sure what the RILE score is but that chart is worthless if you want to
understand party alignment.

Because Germany doesn't have a two party system, putting the parties on a
simple one-dimensional chart doesn't tell you much.

For example, the Greens are one of the most "socially progressive" parties
(think immigration, LGBT, gender theory, feminism) but their positions on
social welfare / workers' rights are fairly conservative compared to The Left
(which in turn is extremely "pro-worker" to the point of bordering on anti-
capitalist but doesn't place as much emphasis on LGBT issues). The Left is
also much more strongly anti-war. The Greens also (obviously) place a lot of
importance on ecological issues and renewable energy (which in Germany always
means anti-nuclear).

The CDU has indeed shifted towards the left under Merkel but the SPD has also
previously shifted strongly towards the right under Schröder. In fact the left
wing of the SPD split off (that's the WASG mentioned in the footnote) and
joined the Left, leaving both major parties left and right of the center. The
SPD's campaigning this time is a bit more "left populist" than usual but that
seems to be almost entirely strategic (to steer protest voters away from the
AfD by offering a "real alternative").

The FDP is generally considered the most "employer-friendly" party and has a
history of leaning towards neoliberal ("privatise everything") but has
recently marketed itself as more centrist libertarian.

I find it very odd to see both the FDP and CDU described as more conservative
than the US Democrats, as well as seeing the FDP described as more
conservative than the CDU.

The CDU is probably most tolerant of getting involved in wars and only the
Left and Greens take a strong stance against weapons exports but none of them
are anywhere near as militarist as the US Democrats (or Republicans). None of
the parties could honestly be described as "tough on crime" either. If
anything the CDU can be defined as generally being strongly in favour of the
status quo.

If Merkel loses (which most likely also means she'll leave CDU politics), the
CDU will have an identity crisis. Merkel's "left-leaning" course alienated
many right-wing voters, the SPD has become indistinguishable in many aspects
thus competing for the centrist voters. The CDU would be expected to snap back
to a slightly more conservative, more right wing position but Merkel
practically eliminated all possible leadership candidates. Von der Leyen will
not be the next Merkel, but all other public figures are either gone already
or on their way out.

We're almost guaranteed to end up with another coalition government. It will
likely be led by Merkel's CDU. I think we'll also see the AfD reach a two
digit number -- I hope for less than that, but less than 5% (which is the
minimum for getting any seats) seems unlikely.

~~~
fmap
> I'm not sure what the RILE score is but that chart is worthless if you want
> to understand party alignment.

Even if you somehow project every single point of discussion into one
dimension, isn't this a weird axis? It seems like there are a lot of issues in
the US which no sane party argues about in Germany (e.g., separation of state
and religion). If you were to do a factor analysis after presenting the same
polls to parties in Germany and the US you will probably end up with an axis
which neatly separates everything by country...

> I think we'll also see the AfD reach a two digit number -- I hope for less
> than that, but less than 5% (which is the minimum for getting any seats)
> seems unlikely.

I hope that you're wrong and at least according to current polls >10% doesn't
seem like a forgone conclusion
([https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundestagswahl_2017/Umfragen_u...](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundestagswahl_2017/Umfragen_und_Prognosen)).

~~~
pluma
> separation of state and religion

FWIW as I used to be misinformed about this: Germany does _not_ have a
meaningful separation of state and religion. We have no state religion so it's
not a "Christian nation" strictly speaking but there are a lot of things
preventing us from being a secular one:

* the constitution establishes that the German people have a duty to "God"

* recognised (publicly incorporated) churches have special privileges, like enacting taxes on their members, which are collected "for free" by the state

* employees of the Catholic or Protestant churches are subject to church law, which often overrides ordinary labor protections

* Merkel has repeatedly stated that Europe and Germany are defined by Christian values and that her stance on certain topics (e.g. homosexuality) is guided by her Christianity

* we have a blasphemy law that criminalises insults against religious beliefs or deities (rather than individuals or religious groups)

(there are more examples but I think this is sufficient to prove a point)

> I hope that you're wrong and at least according to current polls >10%
> doesn't seem like a forgone conclusion

So do I, I'm just going by their trajectory in state elections. I don't want
them to get a single seat but I know they are still the go-to protest vote and
there are a lot of upset voters.

------
suckerburg
Is this not applicable to non-Americans then? Cause they exist too.

~~~
boomboomsubban
It's heavy on the references to American politics, so not really?

