
The Next American Car Recession Has Already Started - jbredeche
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-13/the-next-american-car-recession-has-already-started
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elihu
I wonder how many potential sedan buyers are just deferring their purchases
awaiting a cheap electric with good range?

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btbuildem
Waiting for a station-wagon, actually

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King-Aaron
This.

BTW, fellow wagon connoisseur... Have you seen the 2018 Porsche Panamera
wagon?

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alistairSH
And the Panamera can tow a boat (seriously, IIRC, the euro model can tow a few
thousand pounds - US car isn't rated because lawyers).

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King-Aaron
Yeah, but...
[https://c1.staticflickr.com/4/3817/9066371914_b93ba47d92_b.j...](https://c1.staticflickr.com/4/3817/9066371914_b93ba47d92_b.jpg)

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ndiscussion
Is this affecting non-American manufacturers? If not, why?

To a casual observer, the writing has been on the wall for sedans for some
time. Why would I want to buy a sedan when I could buy a crossover SUV with
the same fuel economy for the same price?

Ford has been on top of this trend - they announced they are discontinuing ALL
sedan production earlier in 2018.

Car manufacturers come out with new "generations" of vehicles every 5-10
years, so change in production methods is part of the industry. Why can't
American manufacturers adapt?

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jpatokal
> _Why would I want to buy a sedan when I could buy a crossover SUV with the
> same fuel economy for the same price?_

Because you live in a city designed for horses and carriages? It's tough
enough driving a small sedan in Sydney, the idea of trying to park an
American-style monster SUV here scares me. Much of Europe and Japan is
exponentially worse.

Fun fact: in California, most lanes are 12 feet (3.7m) wide. In Sydney, many
major roads including the Harbour Bridge have 2.8m lanes, and there are buses
2.5m wide driving on them.

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chrisseaton
But why do you want to drive a car into a city?

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jpatokal
I don't and very rarely do, but there are narrow lanes on many Sydney arterial
roads well outside the city, like Parramatta Rd.

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S_A_P
Funny thing about SUVs. Everyone seems to universally hate them on the
internet, but they make up for > 50% of all new car sales in the US. Even
funnier to me is the folks that in one breath say they want the W126 manual
wagon but then scoff at an SUV which is a STATION WAGON, slightly raised.
Subaru has been killing it by marketing their SUVs as wagons or vice versa. I
drive an SUV. Its a grand cherokee. Its the SRT model. Its my favorite car
ever.

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alistairSH
I don't get it. Having owned both SUVs, wagons, and hatchbacks, I'll take a
wagon or hatchback every time. Better handling (usually), better fuel economy
(usually), and easier to get into (SUVs are tall), and usually less expensive
(because SUVs have higher margins). If I really needed a third row, I'd buy a
minivan.

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S_A_P
Unless we are vastly different heights, an SUV is always much easier to get
into. I had an Audi A4 prior to the Grand Cherokee, and nearing 40 years of
age, I grew tired of the "fall in/climb out" ingress/egress of a sedan that is
low to the ground. Im 6'2", and my Grand Cherokee (which sits about and 1.5"
lower than the other models) is pretty much perfect sit height. I don't need a
third row, and the grand cherokee is not 3 row, you have to get the Dodge
Durango for that extra row. I love wagons and hatchbacks and SUVs. They are
variations of the same flavor. That was the point I was driving at. A wagon is
the same shape as an SUV. The spaciousness of a wagon is practical. An SUV
sits higher and is easier for some to get in and out. I don't see why there is
any distinction made. I would not correct anyone who called my Grand Cherokee
a "wagon". Remember the original Grand WAGONeer?

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alistairSH
You're 7 inches taller than me, which I'm sure makes a difference!

Yeah, it really depends on the SUV. The big Lexus/Land Cruiser is tall like a
truck. The mid-size RX is, like you said, effectively a tall wagon. Same for
the Tahoe vs whatever GMC calls their mid-size these days.

And, yeah, the wife's little BMW is low and if I've had a few hard workouts
(and the resultant sore back/legs/etc), it's an effort to get in/out. Getting
"old" sucks (turn 42 this weekend).

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samfisher83
Suv sales are going up. It's just people don't like sedans. I think title is a
little misleading.

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agumonkey
I've read somewhere that SUV attracted people because they were in an easier
emission category, which meant they appear cheaper for the size.

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berberous
Sedans are also less desirable as more and more people drive SUVs -- it makes
it hard to see traffic and it's more dangerous when you are the lowest person
on the road.

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swerveonem
Nah, low center of gravity with nimble handling is better. I'll take an all
wheel drive S4, ATS, C class or 3 series over an SUV any snowy day. Sport
sedans have swagger too, the only swaggerific SUVs are the Escalade, Cullinan,
Urus, Porsche SUVs. But those are out of the price range most of humanity can
afford to buy within. I have never had a problem seeing traffic.

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u801e
> I'll take an all wheel drive S4, ATS, C class or 3 series over an SUV any
> snowy day

I hope you're putting on the correct type of tires for snowy days. A lot of
those models come with summer/performance tires which are incompatible with
snow. For my S4, I have a set of Bridgestone Blizzak snow tires that I use
during the winter months.

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berbec
I had an awd ats with blizzak all around. It handled the snow better than any
suv I'd been in.

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RickJWagner
With gas under $2 a gallon, it's not surprising that SUVs are selling like
hotcakes and sedans are barely moving.

Bump gasoline up a dollar or two, then SUVs and trucks will slow down.

Cars are also better these days, lasting longer. I've got a 10 year old car
(had it for a year), it's been rock-solid reliable. I think good used cars are
a compelling alternative to a new vehicle.

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mastax
>Bump gasoline up a dollar or two, then SUVs and trucks will slow down.

That was true in 2003, but I don't think it is anymore. The MPG penalty for a
crossover compared to a sedan is only about 15% now which is probably worth it
for most Americans.

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RcouF1uZ4gsC
Looking at the graph in the article, it seems that the total number of
vehicles across sedans, suvs, and pickup trucks has actually increased.

Given that the demand for vehicles is actually increased, the automobile
manufacturers don't have too many plants overall, they just don't have the
right mix of plants.

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shove
My Mazda 3 hatchback manual gets 39MPG. I’m 6’2” and have 3 kids. Probably the
best car I’ve ever owned. _shrug_

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woodandsteel
ICE sedan sales may be falling, but the Tesla Model S and Model 3 are selling
just great.

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SovietDissident
#thanksobama for throwing taxpayer money at GM, only to have them do their
inevitable restructuring a few years later than otherwise.

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maxerickson
The "GM" that got the money was already restructured, it is "new GM", the
shareholders in old GM were wiped right out.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motors_Liquidation_Company](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motors_Liquidation_Company)

Propping up GM legitimately helped hundreds of thousands of workers. Whether
it was a good use of the money is a different question than that, but the
money didn't go to shareholders, it went to keeping the operations going.

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SovietDissident
It's impossible to tell exactly what would have happened in a bankruptcy, but
the entire company would have almost certainly been restructured, which would
have meant generally clearing out the dead wood: shuttering factories,
renegotiating anachronistic/extravagant union contracts, etc.

Coercing private citizens to pay for mismanaged companies and subsidize the
gold-plated pension benefits of Baby Boomer employees is utterly immoral.

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maxerickson
If you click the link I gave up there, you'll see that it was reorganized in a
bankruptcy.

