
The Sunspot Enigma: The Sun is "Dead", What Does it Mean for Earth? - gibsonf1
http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2008/06/the-sunspot-mys.html
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dandelany
A couple relevant links:

[http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/11jul_solarcycleupda...](http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/11jul_solarcycleupdate.htm)

NASA solar physicist David Hathaway thinks that this is mostly alarmist
nonsense, and after looking at his solar cycle graph, I'm inclined to agree
with him. The Maunder Minimum was a huge departure from the cycle, and it's
far too early to extrapolate and assume a similar departure.

<http://www.spaceweather.com>

Space Weather tracks daily sunspot activity, as well as lots of other cool
tidbits of current astronomy.

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grimoire
There is some serious smack-down in that NASA article.

"In the early 20th century there were periods of quiet lasting almost twice as
long as the current spell."

"In summary, "the current minimum is not abnormally low or long.""

"Hathaway anticipates more spotless days, maybe even hundreds, followed by a
return to Solar Max conditions in the years around 2012."

Along with some interesting graphs, it looks like everything is business as
usual for the sun.

A google search on the author, Rebecca Sato, shows that she typically writes
lots of "what if" and other fluff pieces.

Sounds like fear mongering to me.

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kajecounterhack
Whatever it is, what does it matter if we can't predict what's going to
happen? As far as we know, the world's getting warmer and its time to start
buying priuses wherever we can afford them ;)

~~~
kingkongrevenge
> As far as we know, the world's getting warmer

Temperature peaked in 1998.

~~~
ojbyrne
It would be nice to have a reference for that.

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Retric
The earth acts as a block body so it's input energy must approximate its
output energy or its temperature changes. So what magnitude change in input
energy would equal a change of .7f? Well black body radiation (power out) =
(T1^4 - T2^4) [in kelvin] so 1.0057x the power output or .57% but the
estimated change in solar output is ~0.1% variation over the last 2,000 years
which does not add up.

Granted the global temperature is not uniform and the earth is not a true
black body but these numbers are not even close and it would take a huge swing
in solar activity to get changes in the 1+ deg range.

PS: La Niña - is the likely culprit.

~~~
gibsonf1
Is it possible that the disappearance of sun spots for the first time since
the "little ice age" indicates a huge swing in solar activity?

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Retric
They disappear every ~11 years and have been for a while but the next cycle
has not started yet so some people think it might be while. Anyway, check:
(<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation>)

Edit: If you graphed solar radiation received at the outer surface of Earth's
atmosphere you would see solar output over the last 100 years as a long line
of 1,366w/m with some peaks at 1,367w/m and a possible drop into 1,365
territory.

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dandelany
Global warming + Miniature ice age = There is a God!

~~~
boredguy8
In competitive academic debate, we've long been reading evidence that we're
'due' for a new period of global cooling and so all the global warming
activity is good because it's helping stave off the next ice age.

~~~
gaius
Indeed, in the 1970s the "green" movement was very worried about a new ice
age, and the solutions they proposed to global cooling were, strangely, almost
the same solutions now proposed to combat global warming.

~~~
Retric
There are always wacko's saying the end is near but most of them are far from
credible. Unfortunately it can be hard to tell who is full of it when they
extrapolate past reason. Anyway, particulate matter does lower global
temperatures but unlike CO2 it does not stay up for vary long.

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river_styx
Can any of the physics gurus here offer an explanation of how sunspot activity
is related to heat output? It doesn't really explain that in the article. Less
heat output means less fusion reaction, means less magnetic activity, means
lack of sunspots, I presume?

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ars
The sun is actually a very good insulator. All the heat is generated in the
middle and takes millennia to reach the top.

So anything that basically "mixes" the sun will cause more heat to be emitted.
No sun spots=no mixing, and all the heat remains trapped.

I think that after trapping heat for so long, the sun gets hotter and
generates more sun spots because of all the extra energy. The sun spots bleed
it out, and the cycle continues.

~~~
ced
Uh, what? Sun spots come from the magnetic flux tubes from the inner layers
becoming unstable and rising to the surface, forming loops. If anything, I'd
guess that sunspots _inhibit_ the flow. The mixing happens mostly because of
the persistent convection cells in the sun and of course the turbulence.

I don't know offhand the answer to the parent's question, but in my
experience, the above doesn't make sense.

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ars
Convection cells are the baseline mixing, but any activity in the sun, and sun
spots are far from quiet areas, despite being dark, would cause additional
mixing.

Why would you say sunspots would inhibit the flow?

"magnetic flux tubes" would not arise from nothing, they would arise from
large amounts of ions moving (making an electrical current), and therefor
mixing the suns layers.

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bpreece
Also, the statement "That period coincided with a little ice age on Earth that
lasted from 1650 to 1700" is inaccurate. Actually, the period from 1650 to
1700 is not for the little ice age, but for the Maunder Minimum, the previous
period when there were few sunspots. The little ice age has no sharp
beginning, and is variously said to start almost anywhere after the medieval
warm period - say anywhere from mid-14th century to the mid-17th century. The
little ice age ended with the beginning of global warming in the mid-19th
century.

~~~
gibsonf1
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_ice_age>

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KevBurnsJr
What's not important here is the amount of radiation coming from the sun.

What is important is the systems at work within the sun. A blank sun is the
calm before the storm.

Solar flare : Dec 21st, 2012.

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humanlever
Gotta love that Mayan calendar Voodoo.

