
OpenTable Restaurant Performance Data - georgespencer
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRbPuAyJy74UmbF6kLXFGXDk2eX3N6zvRLzxPamG8FAA3E-SVqMOMSIht-eYEF_4qrNGOJuPbDjTsPD/pubhtml#
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Reedx
Brutal. Restaurants are already often hanging on by a thread.

Over 400 closed in SF last year[1] due to the high cost of doing business
there - some that had been operating for over 20 years. And that was with
normal demand! Imagine now that their traffic has dropped 51%?

[https://www.sfgate.com/food/article/411-restaurant-
closures-...](https://www.sfgate.com/food/article/411-restaurant-closures-San-
Francisco-Jardiniere-14928007.php)

~~~
ttul
Canada rolled out $10B in business financing just today to give businesses
like restaurants a lifeline through this challenging and unusual time. The
money is being pushed out via BDC (which is like the US Small Business
Administration) and EDC, an export development agency that provides guarantees
so that banks can lend to risky borrowers to support exports. On a GDP-scaled
basis, the Canadian financial package is the equivalent of a $90B package in
the US -- nearly twice what Trump's administration is offering.

~~~
config_yml
Switzerland did the same, they offered 10B in help. They also waived a lot of
bureaucratic paperwork for companies wanting to apply “Kurzarbeit”. I hope
people take advantage of it and not in a bad way.

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remarkEon
I wish this administration would do something like zero interest SBA crisis
loans for this situation. I've already seen two of my favorite places where I
live shut down indefinitely (I personally know one of the chefs at one of
them). These places really do operate on razor thin margins and count on major
holidays like St. Patrick's Day, and the summer in general, to make it through
the year. The Fed's $1.5T "injection of liquidity" falls on deaf ears to these
people.

~~~
xyst
Likely won’t happen. Historically, these bailouts are given to big business,
and the small businesses are subject to free market rules (adapt or die)

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mapmeld
When I saw drops on Mondays, I initially thought it was due to a year-on-year
weekday mismatch, but the analysis is sound

> For year-on-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of week from
> the same week in the previous year. For example, we'd compare Tuesday of
> week 11 in 2020 to Tuesday of week 11 in 2019.

Interesting that most have a double dip, with a big drop on 3/2 and then again
on 3/9 which is ongoing

~~~
conductr
Monday’s are big news days with markets reacting to weekend news, businesses
making worldwide directives, and the general dystopian state the world is
slipping into.

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adrr
Most Restaurants don’t provide paid time off for sickness and the back of the
house employees make near min wage. Seems like a huge risk to eat out during a
pandemic.

~~~
troydavis
Even in cities like San Francisco[1] and Seattle[2] where all employees must
receive paid sick leave, demand fell off a cliff (understandably!). There are
great arguments for offering and/or legislating paid sick leave, but if it's
made any impact on demand, the impact is too small to matter.

[1]: [https://sfgov.org/olse/paid-sick-leave-ordinance-
pslo](https://sfgov.org/olse/paid-sick-leave-ordinance-pslo) [2]:
[http://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/LaborStandards/...](http://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/LaborStandards/PSST%20QA%20%2006-29-18.pdf)

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trts
Data analysis does not need to be complicated to tell a story. This is simple,
relevant, and paints the whole picture. Thanks for sharing.

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jerzyt
Kudos to OpenTable for publishing this data. I've used OpenTable a few times
before - I will even more going forward.

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bentcorner
Can someone enlighten me on the effects this will have on the economy?

IANA economist, but it feels like I'm still relatively net-zero with my
spending. My family didn't go out to eat, we spent less on gas, but we spent
more on groceries at our local grocery store, and there's a little more in our
bank account.

People in the hospitality/tourism industry are certainly going through a lot
of pain. If people didn't spend money in those sectors, where did it go?

~~~
SomewhatLikely
The money doesn't have to go anywhere. Even slowing down how many hands a
dollar passes through in a year leads to a contraction. More info here:
[https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/velocity.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/velocity.asp)

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banana_giraffe
In a similar vein, it's crazy to me to compare traffic for the Seattle area
compared to an the same weekday a year ago.

[https://imgur.com/a/8NHdDf8](https://imgur.com/a/8NHdDf8)

It's like a ghost town out there.

The couple of restaurateurs I've talked to don't know how they're going to
keep the doors open much longer.

~~~
divbzero
Tom Douglas [1] has closed 12 of his 13 Seattle restaurants. Only one remains
open to honor the terms of a contract. [2]

[1]: [https://www.tomdouglas.com/](https://www.tomdouglas.com/)

[2]: [https://www.seattletimes.com/life/food-drink/seattle-chef-
to...](https://www.seattletimes.com/life/food-drink/seattle-chef-tom-douglas-
is-closing-his-restaurants-temporarily-due-to-the-new-coronavirus/)

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zone411
I made a quick visualization based on this data: relative number of
coronavirus cases per state and restaurant performance from 3/11-3/12
[https://twitter.com/LechMazur/status/1238701800997490690](https://twitter.com/LechMazur/status/1238701800997490690)

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blackoil
Is this only dine-in or does it include delivery also? Both of them should
have different patterns.

~~~
milesskorpen
Dine in only. Reservations and walkins. (Source: I created this spreadsheet
with our data team)

~~~
usaphp
Could it be that people just don’t bother to place a reservation if they feel
like restaurants won’t be busy due to a virus, but they still go there

~~~
URSpider94
This includes walk-ins - anyone who sits down in the restaurant to eat.

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spqr233
This has a huge impact on the restaurants bottom line, but honestly, surprised
the numbers aren't worse. I hope they can weather these bad times.

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johntomczak
Does anyone know if they quit updating or if it just takes until later in the
day to post? I see up to and including March-15 but as of now, 11:07a CDT,
there is nothing for 3/16\. What do you all know / think?

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edgefield0
COVID-19 is going to wreck economies. We are all thinking that closures and
social distancing will end in a month, maybe two. This process will unfold
over many months, perhaps years. Every city and country is handling this
differently. We have containment measures in some US cities and states and
then Florida hosting an event with 50,000 visitors. Sure, we can reduce
infections in North Carolina, but then these 50,000 will disperse and bring
infections back again through out the country. The only end game here is
everyone gets infected, we develop a vaccine, or in unison we lockdown every
country and city for a fixed period of time, say 45-60 days (never going to
happen). And if COVID-19 mutates? We restart the whole process. I bet many of
us are still in lock down mode come fall 2020 and even into 2021.

~~~
ISL
No snowflake in an avalanche feels responsible. That's okay, because they're
snowflakes, not people. People should have enough respect for their fellow
humans (and for themselves!) not to attend any large events at this time.

Source: haven't interacted in-person with another human in the last ~30 hours
precisely because staying home is the right thing to do for our fellow humans
at this time. Leading by example is one of the most powerful ways to lead.

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ackbar03
im surprised new york dropped by so much (up to 50%). Is everyone just cooking
in their micro-appartments now? Or calling takeout?

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Danieru
From Japan with Love: it is irresponsible to go to a restaurant at this time.

A population's safety is worth more than a couple small businesses going into
mothball mode. If you want to support said small business your task is clear:
ensure 110% you and your family does not get infected. Risking infection just
to "save" a business is an oxymoron. These businesses are at risk because of
the infections, their pain will continue until the entire population treats
the virus seriously and contains it.

If you want to help restaurants: stay home.

~~~
lukasm
There has to be a trade-off between "social distancing" and being a productive
human being which can afford to buy food and medicine and can go to the store
to get the goods.

One could make an argument that is more socially responsible to go to a small
restaurant than to a crowded store.

~~~
lathiat
as stated maybe that sounds true, but you can visit a crowded store once with
one person and then feed a family of multiple people for a week (perhaps 21
meals).

Multiple people have to visit a restaurant once for each 1 meal.

So on the whole it would seem to scale much better if 1 person per household
visits the store once per week, and the store should also not be super
"crowded" if everyone is doing the same.

~~~
lukasm
sure, but in practice that ain't gonna happen. My point was about an average
trip to a restaurant vs average shopping.

If we are talking about the scenario with the minimal possible risk a
restaurant could still beat the shop. You are going to drive through or pick
up a pizza that you order online, so you spend a few minutes per meal with a
limited number of people, say, for 21 meals, you have contacted 50 people. No
need to touch trolleys, bags, boxes of pasta that people sneezed on. At home
you reheat the pizza in the oven to kill the viruses.

> The Institute of Transportation Engineers estimates that one Walmart super
> center receives 10,000 car visits per day

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freepor
Only down 50%? What kind of numbskulls are eating out at reservation
restaurants during an uncontained pandemic?

~~~
conductr
I ate out twice today. Maybe a numbskull but I honestly don’t care if I get
this virus. I’m probably an idiot for that. But I don’t access my personal
risk any more than the normal flu seasons.

Edit to note; both restaurants were packed. I’m not alone in this mindset

~~~
ajross
FWIW: I'm not super anti-restaurant personally. I think a certain amount of
social contact needs to be allowed (because it's inevitable) unless the
numbers are clearly showing a huge risk (and they aren't yet -- cases are
growing fast but outside of Milan not at a level where you're likely to see a
sick person on a regular basis).

That said: your analysis is wrong. You can be contagious without showing
symptoms, so the risk your assessing is NOT your "personal risk". You're
increasing the risk to others too simply by being around them.

~~~
conductr
I know that. But guess what, that other person is out in public too. If their
risk tolerance is such that they absolutely do not want to get sick & risk
taking it home to their elderly parent, well that’s fine but, they need to
self quarantine. My point is I have a higher risk tolerance level in terms of
contracting the virus from a non-symptomatic stranger in public because 1) i
don’t mind being sick enough to limit my activities 2) I can control my
exposure to high risk people except in public spaces (again, if you’re high
risk, why are you in public - that’s on you).

What you all are implying is that anything less than complete mandatory
quarantine is the correct course of action. I just don’t agree with this
doomsday situation given what I know about this virus at this point. Even 2
degrees of separation from confirmed cases isn’t being taken this seriously by
the CDC/medical community. And you’re essentially telling me I’m an idiot and
negligent/malicious person for going out in public with no other reason to
believe it’s unsafe. I just happen to believe nobody is negligent in these
situations and the responsibility lies with those at risk to reduce their risk
profile.

~~~
ajross
> What you all are implying is that anything less than complete mandatory
> quarantine is the correct course of action.

No. I'm saying you shouldn't be morally rationalizing it as you accepting a
"personal" risk. Any contact is a risk to everyone, and you need to accept
that.

NOR can you rationalize the chance of infecting others at the restaurant as
"their personal risk", for exactly the same reason! Any transmission is a
transmission, and it can lead to others. We're trying to keep the number of
transmissions low so it doesn't grow out of control.

Now, again: unless you're in a major hot spot a single restaurant visit is
(probably) a tolerable risk. But it is not and cannot be understood as a
"personal" decision. It's still an increase in pandemic risk and needs to be
understood that way.

~~~
conductr
> It's still an increase in pandemic risk and needs to be understood that way.

It’s not mutual exclusive. I do get your point. But if restaurants are open
and government allows them to remain open then this is a personal risk
assessment as to how much public and other people handling your food you are
willing to accept. That’s what I mean.

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isoskeles
I was hoping OpenTable released this data grouped by cuisine so we can better
understand the claims that "racism" is causing more economic pain for Chinese
restaurants.

~~~
ukabwlsbeux
Anecdotally, I have a friend who runs a middle eastern restaurant near a
handful of popular Chinese restaurants. Early on, before there was any
realistic threat to the area, but after it was known that a new disease was
coming out of China, the middle eastern restaurant started surging in
popularity because people were avoiding the Chinese ones all of a sudden.

I don’t think it’s racism, but I definitely believe the claim is real

