

Greater than 50% chance of failure; kickstarted easily - jessaustin
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/sparse/sparse-bicycle-lights

======
jessaustin
OK, so this is kind of old, and the prototypes look really cool, and the
product name is cool. Apparently one can be a professional product designer or
even a professor of product design without understanding basic probability.
They identify 4 separate failure modes, and estimate probabilities of 15%,
20%, 25%, and 5%. By my math, if these failure modes are independent, this is
a 51.55% chance of overall product failure.

I suspect they overestimated the probabilities of each of these scenarios,
except for the 5% "acts of god" estimate.

