
Ask HN: What are the possible outcomes of bombing Guam? - artur_makly
Seems there are a lot of gamers and military aficionados on HN.. using this tool: https:&#x2F;&#x2F;nuclearsecrecy.com&#x2F;nukemap&#x2F; and other historical facts, how do you think this could be played out if you were a top General in the Pentagon.
======
AnimalMuppet
Well, first of all, either they hit or they miss. I wouldn't take hitting as a
certainty.

If they miss, well, the US has more options. They don't _have_ to immediately
destroy NK - not that I think that would stop a hothead like Trump.

What I'd do, from the US side: Destroy their nuclear facilities, and anything
associated with it, plus decapitation strikes.

What I'd expect them to do in response: Immediately begin attacking South
Korea.

What I'd do in response to that: Attack every military facility I know of in
NK, and keep attacking them until they're non-operational. Also unleash
everything available to help SK at the front.

What I'd expect them to do in response: Unleash everything they have.

I'd expect to win, and totally destroy the government and military of NK - at
the price of a million or more NK dead, maybe that many SK dead, and perhaps
10,000 US dead. It's a horrific price, but I don't see where along the way
there's a place where it can stop. As soon as NK launches against Guam, it's
game on, and nobody can back down.

I wish had a better answer for that...

But there's a subtle distinction that needs to be made here. You asked about
NK bombing Guam. In fact, NK has announced plans to fire a test missile to 40
km away from Guam (going over Japan on the way). If they do, that is _not_ the
same as bombing Guam. In that case, first, I would try to shoot it down when
it goes over Japan, and then again on approach to Guam. Second, I would
announce, and carry out, an ICBM test launch that landed 40 km off of North
Korea.

My rationale is this: NK is sending a clear, provocative message. They don't
care about violating norms of territorial integrity, only about actual
military action. Fine. Then as they do, it will be done to them - equal
provocation in return, with an equal message.

------
warrenm
Pretty interesting discussion going on over on /r/neutralpolitics:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/NeutralPolitics/comments/6sp6x0/wha...](https://www.reddit.com/r/NeutralPolitics/comments/6sp6x0/what_strategic_benefits_would_north_korea_gain/)

