
UK COVID19 model published [pdf] - sgt101
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
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skmurphy
Contains a useful table

    
    
       Age Range   (1)     (2)     (3)
         0 to 9    0.1%    5.0%    0.002% 
        10 to 19   0.3%    5.0%    0.006% 
        20 to 29   1.2%    5.0%    0.03% 
        30 to 39   3.2%    5.0%    0.08%
        40 to 49   4.9%    6.3%    0.15%
        50 to 59  10.2%   12.2%    0.60%
        60 to 69  16.6%   27.4%    2.2%
        70 to 79  24.3%   43.2%    5.1%
        80+       27.3%   70.9%    9.3%
    

where (1) is % symptomatic cases requiring hospitalization (2) is %
hospitalized cases requiring critical care (3) Infection Fatality Ratio

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grey-area
This is really interesting and deserves a read. Modelling for both the US and
UK.

Unmitigated fatalities (no intervention) would be 0.5 million in the UK or 2.2
million in the US over just a few months.

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sgt101
head spinning stuff, the mitigation strategy (suppression in waves for 18mths)
is extraordinary.

Mitigation of suppression is going to be a big thing, there will be a premium
on anything that can lift the mantle on society.

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grey-area
I had to laugh at that bit, only an epidemiologist would think it was
practical to adopt a stop and start strategy for 18 months, opening and
closing schools and adjusting lockdowns etc. every few weeks. I suspect
governments will proceed to full lock down instead for as long as it takes
(6-8 months?).

Economically this is going to hit very hard, and lead to a global depression
and a lot of bankrupt companies. I almost fear the treatment might kill more
than the disease after all the global economic impacts are accounted for.

~~~
sgt101
To be fair to them they do comment that this is unproven and it may not be
viable. I can't see that a 6mth lockdown will work either though.

I guess that what will happen will be a muddle - increase healthcare surge
capacity, infection control with new tech (phones and reporting), better
testing and tracing - and use of limited amounts of vaccine when it becomes
available... even 10k shots would make a difference I suppose.

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mherrmann
I summarised what I think the paper will mean for Europeans in the next 18
months:
[https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10158255787747387&se...](https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10158255787747387&set=a.10151274103657387&type=3&theater)

~~~
sgt101
I think that you are not listening to the briefings or decisions from the UK
gov but instead reading the press - they have never said that they would let
it spread unhindered; but wanted to do (2) flattern the curve. Now they are
moving to 3 but are trying to time the move in such a way that childcare can
be managed for the emergency services. Apparently 1/3 of nurses have school
aged kids, the concern is that if they are out of school then they will be
with grandparents - thus precipitating the kind of disaster the model shows
could come.

I think that the hope that the government has is that they can build out a
bigger surge capacity in a few weeks/months and then be able to mitigate the
measures that they have in place. I think that this is wishful thinking at the
moment - but I really hope I am wrong.

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fancyfredbot
Very interesting. I noticed the model has the lockdown starting in April but
in fact it has now started in March. I wonder how much this effects the length
of lockdown required before we can afford to relax restrictions again
(briefly).

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dustinmoris
Ironically the only reason why we will see so many deaths in a pandemic such
as this is only because we are so overly overpopulated and we as a species
have become too good to cheat nature by keeping dead people alive.

Also ironically this pandemic is exactly what the world needs to shut
everything for 18 months and therefore finally take (involuntary) a real
measure to stop further global warming. On a philosophical level one might say
it’s better to fuck over one generation now and later save many more
generations to come by keeping this planet inhabitable. As if we got punished
because we were unable to act responsibly ourselves.

