

Secret US Spy Plane May Be Too Mysterious - J3L2404
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/11/secret-spaceplane-eludes-observers-spooks-governments/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wired%2Findex+%28Wired%3A+Index+3+%28Top+Stories+2%29%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher

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run4yourlives
?

The fact that you and I can talk about it (with pictures to boot!) means this
isn't very secret.

Given the retirement of the SR-71, the knowledge that the F-117 went into
service in 1983 and stayed unknown for almost a decade, the rumours of pulse-
engines, contrails and specific aircraft like the tr-3 and Aurora, it is
almost certain that the US (and likely other nations) have aircraft or
spacecraft that are flying right now that the public doesn't know about.

It would be hard to gather intelligence if they didn't.

~~~
borism
Read past headlines. The issue author raises is clearly with it's dual use.
Secrecy in the title comes from that.

Satellites and UAEs have long replaced planes, no matter how fast or stealthy,
for intelligence gathering. One thing this thing will do good is deliver a
some payload to any place on Earth REALLY fast.

Anyway, since 2007-8 there's brand new hangar at Area 51, the biggest so far:
<http://dreamlandresort.com/area51/2007_new.html>

~~~
run4yourlives
Satellites will never replace aircraft until they can be "on demand". Orbits
have been able to be tracked for years... changing orbits demands fuel that
can't easily be replaced.

A fast aircraft with stealth is best for "cuban missle crisis" type issues. A
slow one for less urgent requests for tactical concerns.

As of current public knowledge, UAVs do not have the type of speed or range
that we're talking about here as being required... as far as we know...

~~~
borism
Just wanted to amend my previous statement a bit:

 _One thing this thing will do good is deliver a some payload_ (including
satellite or UAV) _to any place on Earth REALLY fast._

This thing is simply not very good platform for intelligence gathering in
itself. Not very easy to gather intelligence at speed of Mach 20+.

~~~
run4yourlives
Um, the ISS is moving at around Mach 24 right now, so I'd imagine most
satellites used for spying are already doing a similar speed, and they have no
issues snapping pretty high resolution pics.

I don't think this would be a concern for an aircraft doing a similar (or much
more practical, slower) speed.

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jonnycoder
Why should the US make this plane more transparent? What makes this author
think that if the US takes the high road, that China, Russia and other
countries will follow? Sure this plane could be use for weapons, but
intelligence is one area of our expenditures that actually makes more sense.

~~~
rwmj
It's not likely China and Russia would. But it allows the US to take the moral
high ground, which you cannot at the moment. The risk would be that other
countries would know of your capabilities, but it's fairly likely that they
know that anyway: since there's amateurs on the ground in the US tracking it,
it's a fair bet there are agencies in China doing the same, and I bet the
Chinese have spies in one of the many organizations tasked to build this
thing.

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SkyMarshal
Sounds like an interesting alternative to the spaceshuttle program. A cargo
bay big enough to fit any payload, but fully robotic, doesn't need to lug an
atmosphere up into space with it. Sounds efficient.

I wounder if it would be possible to fit the cargo bay with an atmospheric
module, in order to send astronauts up to work on things that only humans can
still do, like manually repairing the Hubble. They don't have to actually fly
it, just go along for the ride, do the mission, then ride back to Earth.

IANASE (space expert), but it really seems that robotic space exploration is
the way to go these days, be it earth orbit, interplanetary, or other.
Cheaper, more efficient, faster turnaround/iteration times, equally effective
for most missions, and less political risk.

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stcredzero
One thing I find highly interesting, is that the article seems to imply that
only the US can track other people's space vehicles.

 _Washington could get away with this sort of space espionage because no other
government has the technology to comprehensively track the activities of other
nations’ space vehicles._

I guess the word "comprehensively" is key here. Is there really such a huge
gap in other nation's capabilities? The Russians have a _space program_. What
are the facts the author is alluding to? How big or small are other nation's
space tracking capabilities? (I can just see the "Moon Hoax" nuts jumping all
over this!)

~~~
DougWebb
The US has bases all over the world that are used to communicate with manned
flights and deep space probes, and presumably these bases also have equipment
for tracking everything in orbit. Russia can cover a lot of sky from within
their own territory, and they've got ships that are floating tracking
stations, but probably not enough to cover the entire sky all of the time.
Other countries probably don't either; they most likely share the US bases and
don't get the 'track everything' data.

An interesting thought: anything that is orbiting is predictable. You don't
have to watch it constantly to know where it is at any given time, you just
have to watch it while it passes by and calculate the orbit. So the
comprehensive tracking is only necessary for tracking things which are not
following consistent orbits: either they've got the ability to shift their
orbit, or they're not really orbiting at all but are in powered flight. Manned
flights typically shift around until they get where they are going, and I
guess if they're secret they may never settle into a stable orbit. Military
satellites probably do the same thing, but they'd have a limited fuel capacity
to keep moving around, and a satellite is an expensive device to fly for a few
days/weeks and let burn up (now that we're not using shuttles to recover
them.)

~~~
icegreentea
If you combine your two points together, you realize that to track anything
with a non-changing orbit, you just have to have to detect it once. And since
everything is strictly line of sight, if you've been overflown by a satellite
(spied on), then you've also had an opportunity to track the satellite and now
know when the next fly-over / where will be.

What the US has the potential ability to real-time track every satellite
around the entire world. In fact, we're pretty sure that that capability
exists because they've also tracked everything in orbit larger than a screw.

While the X-37 has the capability to make some countries nervous, honestly
space does have its own (weaker) version of MAD. I mean, if anyone does
something stupid, then the rest can ruin it for everyone. I mean, do you think
the US would go about laying mines in space when Russia/China probably have
(will have) the capability to knock down GPS satellites? I mean, everyone
knows where they are, everyone has the capability to insert into the same
orbit.

The US would be beyond stupid to use the X37 for anything other than recon
(spying!), or grabbing it's own satellites/payloads. Anything else would been
as dumb as co-locating satellite launch sites with ICBM silos.

Also, despite the lack of public information given out by the Air Force and
government, it's entirely likely that the Chinese and Russians know a lot more
about the hardware and its capabilities than Wired and the public. Spy
agencies exist for a reason. Even amongst 'friends'.

~~~
borism
Anyone can track anything (*that remains in it's orbit) from the comfort of
their home:

<http://www.heavens-above.com> <http://www.satobs.org/seesat/seesatindex.html>

------
semipermeable
The author needs to get past the fantasy that the US government is the big bad
guy in a room full of innocent school children. Russia, while weakened over
the past few years, is a global military power. China (and India) are starting
to flex their muscles. North Korea is still ruled by a cantankerous despot.
The technology advantage the US has held since WWII is waning, and with it
goes the luxury of military complacency. I'd rather the skirmishes happen
behind the scenes than with more large-scale conventional warfare.

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MattyDub
The Wired article says the "X-37 periodically changes orbits". However, the
linked article from the CS Monitor
([http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2010/0824/Secret-Air-
Force-...](http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2010/0824/Secret-Air-
Force-X-37B-space-plane-changes-its-orbit)) only indicated one orbit change.

~~~
maukdaddy
The wired article was all-around poorly conceived and written. The author
advocates open information sharing - but it's a fucking spy plane! Does he
have no idea how the spy industry works? Not like the US and USSR shared data
on the SR-71 or equivalents.

~~~
oiuyhgrftgthyju
This isn't a spy plane - it's a potential space minelayer.

The nice thing about the SR71 was that it wasn't that secret, you knew from
the speed and altitude that it was an SR71.

But suppose your spyplane flew at the same height and speed as a B52 and was
the same size as a B52 - the other guys might be a little more nervous, and
more likely to react, when it flew over their territory.

~~~
maukdaddy
This is smaller than the space shuttle so you should also be able to uniquely
identify it as it passes overhead. Might not be in the same spot each time,
but it is a spy (multi-purpose) plane afterall.

~~~
oiuyhgrftgthyju
But you don't know what it is doing. The problem with space - and the reason
we have avoided militarizing it - is that it's difficult to stay out of other
people's territory.

You wouldn't allow an anonymous N. Korean/ Chinese/ Russian/ Fredonian warship
to wander around US waters unchallenged but you have to allow a satellite to
pass overhead - thats orbital mechanics.

Now if you start doing things with your space plane, the other side decides
it's going to have to defend itself by shotting down anything that passes over
it's territory, and 20 minutes later you shoot down their stuff when it passes
over your head.

Pretty soon nobody has any satellites. We realized this didn't really work on
the high seas several hundred years ago and came up with the idea of laws and
flags.

