
Bitcoin breaks $3K to reach new all-time high - janober
https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/04/bitcoin-3000
======
mmaunder
That was quite a stair step up around 8pm PDT. Anyone know what happened?
[http://imgur.com/a/W6m6n](http://imgur.com/a/W6m6n)

~~~
xiphias
In the last week there was a fear of the Bitcoin Cash fork splitting the
community. The fork failed so spectacularly that the biggest problem for
Bitcoin / Bitcoin Cash holders was how to dump Bitcoin Cash when all reputable
exchanges are afraid of implementing Bitcoin Cash. Now it's clear for most
people that Bitcoin Cash failed.

Also Segregated Witness will lock in on Aug. 8 with a very high probability,
and activate at the end of August.

~~~
oskarth
> The fork failed so spectacularly

Really? How do you quantify this? Most people who are pro big blocks felt it
went well (r/btc) and it'll take a while to make it profitable for miners to
mine it. Many people who are against big blocks thought it'd immediately dive
to $1, which is 1/200 of where it is currently at. It also seems like many
pro-Blockstream people would dump Bitcoin Cash regardless, just because they
don't believe in the rationale for it (r/bitcoin threads about how to sell
Bitcoin Cash w/o analysis).

You could argue about market liquidity etc, but 4B market cap is hardly a
failure. This doesn't mean it is a success. It is more accurate to call it
_undecided_ for the time being. To call it a failure is definitely premature
and uncharitable, though.

~~~
xorcist
> people who are pro big blocks [...] > people who are against big blocks

Please don't play up this narrative unnecessarily. It's an easy narrative, but
it's also wrong and misses important things about governance and identity. It
makes it sound like the Segregated Witness proposal, which won supermajority
support on the development list, does not increase block size (which it does,
just in a backwards compatible way).

It has been known for quite some time that apart from a bug in the software,
that could destroy value in an instant, the biggest challenge will be managing
an open source project in the face of competing interests. It's the first time
the IETF governance model meets fintech, and if Bitcoin continues to grow it
will make the patent drama round rtcweb look like child's play.

> pro-Blockstream people

This is also simplifying beyond what's reasonable. Bitcoin is an open source
project. There is a mailing list. You can join it.

It's not always roses and civilized technical discussion, but every argument
can be heard out and there are enough people lurking the sidelines to act as a
guard against abuses of power.

The Blockstream narrative plays down the contributions of Lau, Lopp, Lombrozo
and dozens of others which do a lot of the development and release management
of the software.

~~~
makomk
Using the Blockstream narrative to dismiss contradictory ideas is basically
how r/btc maintains their belief it's a success. It's been very entertaining
watching them seize on every big block as proof the "small-blockers" are wrong
that nodes couldn't keep up even though the overall transaction rate is
actually a small fraction of Bitcoin's right now and arguing that the price
going up was a sign that everyone claiming they'd dump their BCH was lying
back when no exchanges were accepting deposits.

Also, as you point out big block isn't really the defining characteristic of
the Bitcoin Cash fork since in principle Bitcoin is having a block size
increase in the near future too. The bigger difference is ripping out the
SegWit fix for transaction malleability, with the stated intention of making
Lightning Network off-chain payments which require malleability to be fixed
not work. In an interesting attack of irony, the ViaBTC exchange (one of its
main proponents) just has to stop withdrawals because transaction malleability
was breaking them:
[https://twitter.com/ViaBTC/status/893744282087047168](https://twitter.com/ViaBTC/status/893744282087047168)

~~~
xorcist
> The bigger difference is ripping out the SegWit fix for transaction
> malleability,

Sure, and as ironic as it may be that BCH deposits was malleability attacked
earlier today, I still don't think it is a good idea to focus on the technical
features of these forks. Who is behind the fork is more interesting than what
is in the fork.

This is not a conflict among developers, with a few notable exceptions. This
is a governance conflict. That is why the conflict is not very visible in the
developer community, but rather outside in social media.

The open source project is a multi stakeholder model which can be very foreign
to people who consider themselves influential. In many ways it looks more like
academia than a corporation. Everyone would like the developers on their
payroll, but no one wants to pay for it. Pretty much like academia, I suppose.

------
perpetualcrayon
Not saying the alternative (fiat) is a substantially better alternative, but
this is what happens when markets aren't regulated.

My prediction: There are going to be a lot of naive poor folks who are going
to become poorer, maybe even dirt poor, and some very savvy wealthy people who
are going to be even more wealthy when this is all said and done.

~~~
divenorth
The more that I think about banks the more I realize they are no longer
relevant. Why do I need to pay a "bank" to keep my money that is simply stored
as a digital record? Seems absurd once you stop and think about it.

~~~
vkou
The primary purpose of banks in our society is not storing money, but lending
it out.

~~~
divenorth
Of course. But then why am I paying bank fees for a checking account? And
savings accounts don't even pay enough interest to cover inflation.

~~~
EduardoBautista
Have you bothered to read the requirements for waving the bank fees? And if
you are concerned with beating inflation, you are supposed to look into, at
the very least, bonds or something similar.

Savings accounts are more suited for money you will need at any moment.

~~~
divenorth
Of course I have. I need to keep $3000+ in my checking account. Either way I'm
paying for the account either by lending them the $3000 or by a $15 a month
fee. Either way I lose out especially since I don't think I'm getting any
value from my bank. I'm planning on switching banks.

I have some money in other investments but I just think banks are a rip off.

------
wfunction
Can someone explain how old Bitcoin works post-fork? Can you sell the same old
Bitcoin twice now? Is this already priced in somehow and still going up?

~~~
JoshTriplett
Bitcoin works the same as it always did. However, anyone who had N Bitcoin on
a particular time on August 1 also has N "Bitcoin Cash" using the same private
keys, and can go spend that separately on the forked blockchain, without in
any way affecting their existing Bitcoin. Both have their own price and
market, and they don't interconvert beyond that one-time thing except by
selling/buying/trading between them.

~~~
wfunction
Thanks! Isn't this something a currency should fundamentally prevent? I don't
know of any real-world currency that can be used twice.

~~~
AgentME
Bitcoin Cash is a separate project and currency from Bitcoin. You can't pay
someone who is expecting Bitcoin by sending Bitcoin Cash to them or vice-
versa.

Bitcoin's code is open source and the balances of all addresses are public, so
anyone could create a fork (a new separate currency based on it, optionally
starting with the same balances).

~~~
wfunction
Right, but presumably a reasonably large merchant would find that they need to
accept both though, right? And now you would have more purchasing power with
them which feels a bit weird, since the old Bitcoin and the new Bitcoin would
not have the same purchasing power...

~~~
dongcarl
Right now, the exchanges have only just allowed Bitcoin Cash deposits. I'm not
aware of any merchant that accepts Bitcoin Cash. I believe that because of the
massive price difference (purchasing power) between Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash,
merchants would have to accept them just like merchants accept different
currencies in Hong Kong (RMB, HKD, USD).

~~~
mirimir
You can just convert your BCH to BTC.

~~~
dongcarl
True! But that alone usually isn't enough for merchants to want to accept a
cryptocurrency. (e.g. very few merchants accept ETH or LTC).

~~~
mirimir
Sure. But my point is that there's no need for merchants to support BCH. Or to
keep supporting BTC. As long as it's easy to exchange one for the other. As it
is with ShapeShift.

------
paulpauper
Been long bitcoin since 2013. I felt like I was late but it has been awesome
.glad I ignored the headlines about bubbles . the news is useless. for every
bubble they call correctly, the get 10-20 of them wrong. Bitcoin is like
General Electric..its not going anywhere. Against all odds it succeeded and
surpassed everyone's expectations.

~~~
xupybd
It will crash, its only a matter of time. It's also to be seen if it'll crash
to a value lower than it currently is. Even if bitcoin becomes a major
currency there will be overshoot in its value.

~~~
oskarth
This type of prediction comments always strikes me as nonsense and containing
zero actual information. If you believe this, either post fundamental analysis
that argues your case and have the hope of providing some valuable insight, or
- even better - put your money where your mouth is.

The same thing happened when people claimed to be 99.999% sure Trump would
never be president, but of course they never actually bet any money on it.

One could argue the grandparent doesn't argue their point either, but they
definitely seem to put their money where their mouth is. All these people who
are so against crypto and like to sit at the sidelines moaning about a bubble,
why don't you either short it or bet against it? A la
[http://blog.samaltman.com/bubble-talk](http://blog.samaltman.com/bubble-talk)

~~~
pg314
You can be right that it will crash and still lose your shirt if you short it,
if you are wrong about the timing. As Keynes said: “the market can stay
irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

There is an inherent asymmetry between going long and short. If you're going
long, your losses are capped at what you put in, and your gains are unlimited.
The opposite is true if you are going short: your losses are unlimited, but
your gains are limited.

~~~
SeoxyS
You don't have to sell short, you can buy puts which give you far greater (not
unlimited) upside than your capped downside.

~~~
pg314
True, but then your timing is even more crucial. You can be right about a
coming crash, but if it happens after your put option expires, it won't do you
any good...

------
gaetanrickter
A rising tide lifts all boats and I can imagine this breakout boosting the
entire cryptocurrency market. Just wait until we enter a bear market, we'll
start seeing just about every cryptocurrency spike in value.

~~~
runeks
Perhaps if you measure in USD. Measured in BTC, Bitcoin Cash has been nothing
but falling for the past couple of days:
[https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin-
cash/#BTC](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin-cash/#BTC)

~~~
pmorici
Bitcoin Cash is only a few days old. It is going to take some time for the
market to find it's true price. That will take more and more exchanges
supporting it so that markets function more smoothly. In the meant time it
would be expected that there are wild price fluctuations and differences in
price globally.

------
mrkgnao
This link posted a couple days back may be of interest:

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14891968](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14891968)

------
nikolay
Yeah, but look at the trading volumes - at least an order of magnitude lower
than 2 years ago!

~~~
sygma
24h volume 2 years ago was around 22 million USD [0] Trading volume in the
last 24 hours is 1.6 billion

[0]
[https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#charts](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#charts)

~~~
foepys
OP meant the Bitcoin trade volume, not the US-Dollar volume. The BTC trading
volume is extremely low currently. [0]

0:
[https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/2y?r=week&t=a](https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/2y?r=week&t=a)

~~~
kobeya
He said "the trading volumes." Could have been either, but BTC trading volume
is even more meaningless than USD trading volume. An inflation-adjusted
aggregate volume is probably the best metric, which is closer to the USD trade
volume than BTC.

------
vedoza
now bitcoin price $3,173
[https://www.exchangeratesdata.com/convert/BTC/USD/](https://www.exchangeratesdata.com/convert/BTC/USD/)

------
discombobulate
Programmable money makes coders powerful.

For some reason, a large fraction of HN hates crypto. They seem to like
getting fucked up the ass by everyone. Groveling to VCs for funding. Looked
down on my MBA-types.

Coders/hackers should be embracing what's happening. Finally, merit > dick
sucking.

~~~
tasuki
What merit?

~~~
discombobulate
Investment. Tokens sales are going to fund projects without gatekeepers.
Personal brand is going to become more important.

You're on an investment website -- for startups.

------
jjlane
buying all that afghani heroin 10 years ago really fucked me out of being a
millionaire

------
jeremynixon
Legendary. Huge thanks to all of the engineers behind segwit.

~~~
erentz
But segwit isn't active yet is it? Is it likely to go ahead?

~~~
dongcarl
I usually check the status here: [https://www.xbt.eu](https://www.xbt.eu)
Since 100% of the blocks mined during this period has been SegWit, I would say
it's very likely that it gets activated!

~~~
runeks
It’s not a matter of probability. Miners decide what to do, and right now a
majority of them will ignore non-SegWit blocks. Doesn’t mean they can’t change
their minds, though.

------
lightedman
It had to reach an all-time high, otherwise there's no way there's going to
possibly be any money to back Bitcoin Cash, since I'm pretty sure the people
that forked it have no real assets to back up this currency otherwise.

~~~
kgwgk
I'm not sure if this is a joke, but certainly I hope so.

~~~
lightedman
Where'd the sudden money come from to back Bitcoin cash? Who put in the
initial currency valuation? Did you watch the quick and near-parity change in
price between Coin and Cash, only for Cash to suddenly double and then drop
right back toparity with BC, then the jump to over 3,000 on Coin to nearly-
mirror the needed missing reserve to back Cash?

It's pretty simple - follow the money. The pattern is BEYOND evident.

------
tryingagainbro
So it's 2009-2010 and someone has $6000 laying around. Hears about Bitcoin and
buys 100,000 shares at 6 cents each. Wakes up in 2017 and miraculously all is
there, in the old computer. $6000 to $300,000,000 in 7 years.

Have we ever seen such appreciation in an investment /speculation?

Oh, it will crash, as soon as a 'better' cryptocurrency comes in. It has value
for as long as people buy it.

~~~
0x0
I'm curious - if you actually had $300m worth of bitcoin and started selling
it, would you be able to actually sell everything off for that price before
the price started dropping like crazy? Would whatever exchange you're using
even be able to wire $300m USD to your bank account after the sale just like
that?

~~~
ErrantX
Well you'd have 100,000 BTC which is handily also approximately the daily
trading volume looking across all the exchanges (at a cursory glance; I
expected it to be higher). So it would take more than a day but not a
significantly long time to shift them.

------
generalseven
I'm a board member and founder of
[https://www.bitcoinwednesday.com/](https://www.bitcoinwednesday.com/)

What happened on 1 August and with the prices immediately after suggests how
the conflict over the blocksize has been widely misreported.

Bitcoin was not ripping itself into two in a civil war, but innovating new
forms of governance and token distribution for new projects.

We now have a technically proven, and from the looks of it, established new
method of token distribution that is arguably far superior to crowd sales and
ICOs.

If you don't like the BCH or Bitcoin implementation, there are already
hundreds of other cryptocurrytencies, but you can also fork your own from the
biggest, original (and arguably most widely distributed).

BCH now has a "market cap" of about $3.7 billion dollars, probably a world
record for a startup (open source project) that was literally released to the
world a few days ago.

If you own bitcoins before the fork, you should now own equal amounts on both
sides of the coin, and (hopefully) soon will be able to buy or sell either
token, depending on your preference.

Bitcoin itself has a $52 billion dollar market cap right now post fork not
only because it survived the challenge and may soon implement Segwit, but
because it will be one of the best chains from which to fork new projects.

There is no need to take sides from this perspective. Just sell the token you
don't like and use the gain to buy more that you do like. OTOH, it's perfectly
fine to like and hold both just like it was once okay to use more than one web
site.

[post edited: BCash to the more neutral BCH ]

~~~
antocv
BCash is a fork ZCash.

For running a bitdoinwednesday you seem to be misinformed about what bitcoin
is.

~~~
generalseven
Indeed I stepped right into the next "civil war" by using "BCash" instead of
its symbol, BCH.

Chill out, please. I don't want to see it fail at all.

Read my original remark more closely. This is good for the whole industry. We
are holding both.

