

Recruiting: There is no such thing as a developer shortage - sarajo
https://medium.com/p/cb25263dfe4

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lkrubner
There are less computer programming jobs in the USA than there were 20 years
ago.

Stats from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (USA):

[http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-
technology/c...](http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-
technology/computer-programmers.htm)

1990 Number of Jobs 565,000

2010 Number of Jobs 363,100

2012 Number of Jobs 343,700

This is a shrinking industry. Computer programming jobs are tied to
manufacturing so as manufacturing leaves the USA, so to do the computer
programming jobs. Don't get caught up in the hype about startups: look at the
actual numbers. The government tracks these jobs. The numbers are shrinking.

Especially worth a look:

[http://americawhatwentwrong.org/story/programming-jobs-
fall/](http://americawhatwentwrong.org/story/programming-jobs-fall/)

"In its 1990 Occupational Outlook Handbook, the U.S. Department of Labor was
especially bullish: “The need for programmers will increase as businesses,
government, schools and scientific organizations seek new applications for
computers and improvements to the software already in use [and] further
automation . . . will drive the growth of programmer employment.” The report
predicted that the greatest demand would be for programmers with four years of
college who would earn above-average salaries.

When Labor made these projections in 1990, there were 565,000 computer
programmers. With computer usage expanding, the department predicted that
“employment of programmers is expected to grow much faster than the average
for all occupations through the year 2005 . . .”

It didn’t. Employment fluctuated in the years following the report, then
settled into a slow downward pattern after 2000. By 2002, the number of
programmers had slipped to 499,000. That was down 12 percent–not up–from 1990.
Nonetheless, the Labor Department was still optimistic that the field would
create jobs–not at the robust rate the agency had predicted, but at least at
the same rate as the economy as a whole.

Wrong again. By 2006, with the actual number of programming jobs continuing to
decline, even that illusion couldn’t be maintained. With the number of jobs
falling to 435,000, or 130,000 fewer than in 1990, Labor finally acknowledged
that jobs in computer programming were “expected to decline slowly.” "

~~~
sarajo
Not according to the Collage Board Research Report done in 2011
[https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/spa/zb6oconppspu388/svm4hp...](https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/spa/zb6oconppspu388/svm4hp9n.png)

~~~
lkrubner
I hope you do not believe that graphic, because only a fool would believe that
graphic. The title says:

"Projected Annual Growth of STEM Job Openings 2010-2020"

And then for "Computing and Mathematics" it says 52%!!!!!

Think about that! 52% annual growth! In an economy growing perhaps 2% or 3% a
year, when things are good! That is absolutely ridiculous!

Also, note that this is a projection, and the projections on this subject have
been reliably wrong. Consider the history of Bureau of Labor Statistics that I
quoted above. They kept projecting growth when the reality was the loss of
jobs.

Even if you make the charitable assumption that the 52% was actually a
projection of all growth from 2010 to 2020, it is now 2014 and we know the
first 4 years of their projection is entirely wrong.

The evidence is strong: computer programming is a profession that is shrinking
in the USA.

