

Where have all the graduate students gone? (2002) - physcab
http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0725/p25s01-cogn.html

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dkarl
I dropped out of a top-ten math PhD program because I looked around and
thought, "Most of these guys aren't going to get jobs, and I don't feel like
one of the exceptions. I'm not going to spend five years in graduate school to
end up a failure."

Of course, by "job" I meant a tenure-track research position in a livable
city, and by "failure" I meant... well, basically, by "failure" I meant my
father, who taught at a small, bad public university in a rural wasteland. I'm
pretty sure my mom hated him for every hour and minute she had to live in that
town. If I picked up a wife or girlfriend in the hip, thriving city where I
lived, would she follow me to Bumfuck, USA? Would I let her if she wanted to?
I constantly obsessed over the fear of ending up teaching hopeless kids at a
double-directional school in a little town at the end of the universe,
watching my kids grow up alienated from their provincial peers and underserved
by the school system, burdened with the knowledge that it was _my_ failure
that forced my family to live there.

So I quit and got a job as a programmer to keep myself afloat while I figured
out what to do with my life. It turns out there are lots of challenges in
computing, and I've worked alongside a couple of math PhDs on interesting
problems. I think grad school would have been a lot more fun if I had realized
that failing to get a hot tenure-track position wouldn't ruin my entire life.

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gamble
"...there are far more post-docs working at universities than there are
permanent jobs for them to move into, so a lot of people get stuck in limbo."

The author answers her own question. Since the era of expansion in higher
education and private research labs driven by the baby boom and cold war came
to an end in the 1980's, the scientific job market hasn't been matched to the
number of qualified applicants. If anything, there should be fewer grad
students.

For all the rhetoric about higher education as a bastion of left-wing
politics, academics put up with an employment system that would make Ayn Rand
smile. Aside from an ever-shrinking pool of tenured professors, most academics
have low salaries, high workloads, little-to-no job security, and few
employment prospects outside academia.

~~~
davi
Yup. I came up with some back of the envelope numbers around this here:

<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=470181>

~~~
gamble
Interesting analysis. I suspect it's only going to get worse in coming years,
with the economic crisis taking a big chunk out of endowments and professors'
retirement savings alike.

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cia_plant
The obvious answer is that a good science student can make 6 figures today as
a programmer or in finance, or they can go to grad school and work harder for
much less money.

My own reasons are actually different. I'm not particularly interested in
money, and I love to teach and to do research. The academic environment just
seemed stifling to me. As someone who values creative freedom enormously, the
phrase "publish or perish" is very frightening.

~~~
asciilifeform
Where, if at all, did you finally find creative freedom?

~~~
cia_plant
I haven't really found a good way to support myself while doing what I want,
yet. Right now I live frugally and work part-time as a programmer. One reason
that I hang out at news.yc is that I'm hoping to turn some of my ideas into
some sort of startup, even though I don't really fit the profile of a startup
founder (I'm not very driven or passionate, at least not when it comes to
business.)

------
Tangurena
One reason not mentioned in this article (but mentioned in others like at The
Chronicle of Higher Education) is that changes in immigration and visas
post-911 have strongly discouraged students from coming to the US. Many of the
students who would have come, are prevented by ICE. Consequently, many don't
even try for student visas in the US and seek higher education in other
countries (for example, UK and Australia).

Another reason not mentioned is the soaring cost of education in the US.
Rising far faster than inflation, higher education has become unaffordable for
many. Post-baccalauriate degrees are even further out of reach.

And as for domestic students, the salary difference between a bachelors and
masters (at least in electrical engineering, which was my first bachelors)
would never pay for the time and money needed to get the degree. When I got my
BS back in the 80s, the difference between BSEE and MSEE was $5k/year salary
differential. Between the money and time lost getting the degree, presuming
zero cost of money, going for the masters would have paid off after about 30
years in the workforce.

People in engineering are likewise worried about where the next generation of
engineers are going to come from. Students have been voting with their feet
and wallets to get away from short-term professions like engineering (the
half-life of an engineering career is 7 years, which isn't long enough to pay
off your student loans before you have to find a different career).

~~~
lliiffee
The cost of education isn't much of an issue. PhD programs in the sciences
almost always cover tuition and provide a stipend in exchange for teaching or
research work.

~~~
blogimus
But there is the opportunity cost of missing real income when you stay out of
the work force.

~~~
dlaz
Generally people who want to pursue a PhD do not do it for the money. A PhD is
about loving the field you're in and loving research.

~~~
geebee
True, but there comes a point where the sacrifices become too great.

My father is a professor (albeit of Medicine, where salaries are actually
pretty good). He easily bought a house in a great neighborhood in San
Francisco. On our street, there was a retired cop and a firefighter, and a
Communications Professor at SF State. A good friend of mine's father was a
physics professor at SF State, and they owned a nice, spacious house in the
Sunset. Another buddies parents were both public high school teachers, owned a
house in the Sunset no problem(one was full time, the other part time).

My brother is now a professor (tenure track) at SF State. He decided against
renting his own 1br (too expensive), so he rooms with a buddy from high school
(who teaches high school math).

So these two guys in their early 30s, one of whom is a success story out of
his PhD program, rent with a roommate -where their parents easily bought and
supported families.

You can say "well, that's the market at work", but then you lose your right to
fret about the shortage of Americans in PhD programs in the sciences.

Back when it meant you'll never be rich, but you'll be able to afford a modest
house in the western half of San Francisco", I could accept the argument that
it's not about the money. But nobody will sign up for 6 years of post-grad +
another couple of post-doc for near financial hopelessness or banishment to
tiny towns far from the coasts...

Unless, of course, it's the only way to get legal residency in the US.
Evidently, the US has decided to use this reality to staff PhD level positions
in science and engineering - in spite of all this talk about getting Americans
interested in math and science. Everything else is just pissing in the wind,
as far as I'm concerned.

------
timcederman
The title should include the note that the article is from 2002.

I'm sure that given the current economy it's not so much of a problem now.

~~~
physcab
Thanks. Fixed it! By the way, even though it is outdated, I still see some of
the problems prevalent today. Does anyone know where to find current
statistics?

I tried browsing through the U.S Census data but that was almost hopeless.

~~~
RK
You can find US physics data here:

<http://www.aip.org/statistics/>

------
tsally
Not sure how relevant the problem is today, but most analysis of this
situation is all wrong. It's K-12 math and science education that's the real
cause.

Developer A: "Our compiled code is slow!"

Developer B: "It must be a problem in our implementation, we should fix that."

Developer A: "But our C compiler is absolutely horrible. In fact, all it does
is compile the C code to Python and then pass that to a Python compiler."

Developer B: "Well why does it do that?"

Developer A: "We don't have funding for an actual C compiler. State law
requires us to use the Python compiler for everything. [1]"

Developer B: "It's too late to fix the compiler. We're already in the project
development phase. We can't fix the fundamentals, just optimize the code!"

Developer A: "Ok fine, how about we change compilers for the next project?"

Developer B: "Nah, that'd take too much work."

[1] Note: accurate reflection of the logic used in curriculum planning for
most K-12 city schools.

~~~
blogimus
As far as your statement on K-12 being a problem, this topic has been
discussed widely (read is a key concern) in the ACM. Here's a resource:
<http://csta.acm.org/> (Computer Science Teachers Association)

~~~
tsally
Yeah, I've been pretty happy with the ACM's response in regards to Computer
Science. Math on the other hand, is a completely different beast. At least
with CS there is an easy profession like game programming that students can
relate and aspire to. No similar profession exists in the mind of a kid for
Math that has the same appeal.

~~~
jimbokun
Math could conceivably be better preparation for game programming than
Computer Science.

~~~
tsally
It actually is. But not in the mind of a kid. :)

------
Dilpil
"Being a scientist is still a comparatively low-stress, high-pay career"

Compared to jobs done by those without college educations, sure.

Compared to the many career options open to anyone who is in the position to
become a scientist, not at all.

The author, like Obama and all the others demanding that (other) young people
become scientists and engineers, are living in a fantasy world where a)
science is an amazing career path an b) there is a shortage of scientists and
engineers.

------
giardini
Many U.S. citizen know that it's not worthwhile to get a Ph.D. and in some
instances, a Master's degree. See Philip Greenspun's "Career Guide for
Engineers and Computer Scientists" at <http://philip.greenspun.com/careers/>

------
varjag
"Learning physics is actually not so different a process as learning a foreign
language."

Uh, no.

------
asciilifeform
"Adjusted for IQ, quantitative skills, and working hours, jobs in science are
the lowest paid in the United States."
(<http://philip.greenspun.com/careers/women-in-science>)

Despite agreeing with everything in the article, I am still devoting my life
to somehow getting into graduate school - simply because my life goal is to
eventually spend all of my prime waking hours working on beautiful, elegant,
entirely non-commercial concepts, and there is still a non-zero number of
academic positions which allow this, in contrast with industry.

Like choosing gladiatorial combat in place of meekly kneeling for beheading,
it is an issue of having a sporting chance vs. no chance at all.

