
America Isn’t Ready for the Lanternfly Invasion - clumsysmurf
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-02/america-isn-t-ready-for-the-lanternfly-invasion
======
Confiks
I wonder if any of the genetic control strategies used with the Aedes aegypti
mosquito [1] could be used in this case. The obvious difference would be that
males would also be harmful to the environment in this case. The strategy
could also be improved if actual non-viable offspring was produced, increasing
opportunity cost of reproduction and spent energy.

[1]
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4001467/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4001467/)

[2] [https://www.popsci.com/mosquitoes-designed-self-
destruct](https://www.popsci.com/mosquitoes-designed-self-destruct)

~~~
spott
I would love to see this kind of thing done with the [0] pine beetle. It isn't
an invasive species, but is killing off huge numbers of ponderosa and
lodgepole pines in the rocky mountains due to the combination of forest fire
surpression and unusually hot and dry summers.

The exploding number of pine beatles is commonly attributed to climate change
giving the pine beattle a second generation of bugs every year[1]. A genetic
control strategy that thinned the population I think would be really helpful
at reducing their effect.

[0]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_pine_beetle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_pine_beetle)
[1] [https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2012/03/climate-change-
sends...](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2012/03/climate-change-sends-
beetles-overdrive)

~~~
pecanpie
It saddens me to see how the pine beetles are killing off the pines, but won't
they ultimately improve the pine populations by thinning out the weakest
trees? And over the course of the next hundred years, give some more climate-
resilient strains room to spread, or migrate?

~~~
spott
I think part of the issue is that one of the consequences of killing tons of
trees is creating a lot of dry, dead, flamable wood. So the weakest trees get
killed off by the beatles, but then _all_ the nearby trees are killed in the
resulting forest fire, which hurts the evolution argument a little.

On the other hand, part of the reason that this kind of thing is so bad is
that we fight forest fires so aggressively. In the historic past, as trees are
killed off en-masse by the beatles, a forest fire would ravage the area,
decimating the beatles population. Because these fires aren't allowed to go
unchecked anymore, the beetle population can continue to grow.

------
blakesterz
Ugh. We're dealing with the Emerald Ash Borer around here and it's really sad,
and dangerous. There's acres and acres of dead tress that are going to start
falling and taking down power lines in the next few years. It costs thousands
to have them taken down if they're in your yard. Damn little things are just
monsters. Now I'm not looking forward to when those Lanternflies get here.

~~~
jchb
The Emerald Ash Borer was officially detected in the US in 2002. Likely
arrived to the US in the beginning of the 90s [0]. Probably with packing
material. Relevant regulation of wooden packing material seem to have been
passed in the end of the 90s [1][2].

If anything, this story supports the precautionary principle. Nice quote from
Wikipedia: "Strong precaution holds that regulation is required whenever there
is a possible risk to health, safety, or the environment, even if the
supporting evidence is speculative and even if the economic costs of
regulation are high" [3].

[0]
[https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/jrnl/2006/nc_2006_Poland_003....](https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/jrnl/2006/nc_2006_Poland_003.pdf)
[1]
[https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/7/319.40-5](https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/7/319.40-5)
[2]
[https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-1998-12-17/pdf/98-33444.pdf...](https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-1998-12-17/pdf/98-33444.pdf#page=4)
[3]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precautionary_principle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precautionary_principle)

------
toss1
Gene Drive technology is needed for more than mosquitos/malaria.

It inserts a dominant gene that impairs reproduction in future generations and
collapses populations.

Funding for this type of research for all kinds of invasives would be helpful,
IMO. Certainly seems better and more specific than trying to import predators
also, who may end up preferring the local species over the invasive pest
species.

[https://www.nature.com/news/gene-drive-mosquitoes-
engineered...](https://www.nature.com/news/gene-drive-mosquitoes-engineered-
to-fight-malaria-1.18858)

~~~
tptacek
This is the second comment on this thread suggesting that invasive species be
driven to extinction through technology. We consider eradicating mosquitos
because they are the cause of almost unimaginable human suffering. That is not
a bar cleared by a hapless tropical bug that just happened to get shipped from
Vietnam to a Pennsylvania vineyard.

~~~
quotemstr
So what if there were a third or fourth or tenth comment on this thread
suggesting driving this species to extinction? Why is the comment count
relevant? Is there something wrong with proposing this measure? It sounds like
you think this idea is not only bad (which is fine) but that you think it
should be unspeakable. Can you clarify? Thanks!

~~~
tptacek
No, I just think it's a bad idea.

~~~
ip26
A bad idea to eradicate the invasive? A bad idea to use new technology instead
of pesticides? Which part is the bad idea?

------
hamburga
Just curious, what's the state of the art of global ecology modeling? How
well, if at all, could we model, for example, what'd happen if the Laternfly
landed in Italy? Or what'd happen, for example, if we CRISPR gene-drived these
bugs out of existence as so many are suggesting?

I get that this is very computationally and scientifically hard, in so many
ways. But how good are we at this, at this point? How much harder should we be
trying?

Given how critical this is for us to sustain life and adapt to the changing
environment, it seems like a no-brainer that we should be pouring vast
resources into ecology modeling. Maybe instead of building rockets to "make
life interesting" (Musk) or to "build solar panels in space because people can
have a right to consume exponentially more energy every year" (Bezos).

~~~
Recurecur
Maybe instead of spending endless hours vacuously consuming entertainment of
various kinds...or providing handouts for those unwilling to produce anything.

Musk and Bezos are doing worthwhile things. There are plenty of better
potential funding sources for new projects.

~~~
hamburga
But they have a disproportionate impact on mindshare -- on defining what the
limited supply of professional scientists and engineers perceive as the most
interesting and important problems to solve. This is a zero-sum game: every
minute a bright college student spends talking about rockets is a minute that
she's not talking about ecology.

~~~
Recurecur
> But they have a disproportionate impact on mindshare -- on defining what the
> limited supply of professional scientists and engineers perceive as the most
> interesting and important problems to solve.

The supply of talented (as opposed to just "professional") scientists and
engineers is quite large and growing all the time. Space exploration, IMNSHO,
is just as important as ecology, in the first place. However, there will still
be plenty attracted to that discipline.

Believe it or not, the best and brightest are among the most motivated to seek
their own interests.

------
CapitalistCartr
We weren't ready for the Chestnut Blight a century ago, Dutch Elm Disease,
Japanese Beetles, Kudzu, etc. The Everglades are full of exotic snakes
including Anaconda. Destructive, invasive species suck. There will be many
more.

------
sambull
We should get used to these massive movement of species. Local habitats are
changing rapidly, faster than the inhabitants can adapt. They'll have to move.
On the current course the average global temperature will be much >7f warmer
by 2100, that's a estimate that is really on the low end, and factors no
positive feedback, which we are already seeing. Plants, animals and bugs are
going to be moving and trying to find new habitat. So are humans, also
changing places where we may have not been before, and their local
flora/fauna.

~~~
jchb
Please. Average global temperature raising is a thing, but peddling it in
every single discussion about the environment does nothing but help the
sceptics. This particular invasion has nothing to do with the temperature, and
everything to do with US goods trade with China: [https://cdn.static-
economist.com/sites/default/files/images/...](https://cdn.static-
economist.com/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20170401_BBC263.png),
and other Asian countries. In combination with insufficient pest control of
imported goods.

~~~
UweSchmidt
A different climate may be beneficial to an invasive species, so climate
change csn be relevant to the topic.

~~~
jchb
Sure, it is relevant to the broader topic of invasive species. But starting a
comment with a call to action like above ("We should get used to these massive
movement of species"), isn't exactly additive to the content of the article.
Rather it sounds like the commenter wants to sell something. I believe that in
the political environment we have that can be counterproductive.

By the way, looking up the specifics of the Lanternfly - apparently it is
skilful in laying eggs so that those survive even cold winters, meaning
climate change at most have a moderate effect.

------
0xcafecafe
This reminds me of a documentary I watched last decade called "Strange days on
planet Earth", narrated by Edward Norton. One of the episodes was about this
unwanted migration. They suspended a rubber ring in the water in one of the
ports and a few months later found that about 90% of the animals living on
that ring were hitchhikers from a long way away.

------
honkycat
Perfect candidate for genetic control via CRISPR if viable.

Could you imagine what our ancestors would say if they knew we had the
technology to successfully kill a pestilence? It would seem like complete
madness. They would think us insane for not using it.

~~~
mikestew
Replace your first sentence with "nuclear bomb" and the second paragraph (with
a looser definition of "pestilence") would be almost as valid. Because our
hypothetical ancestors have not been fully informed of the down-side.

Now, I don't know that there _is_ a downside to genetic modification, but
history is littered with unintended consequences.

~~~
honkycat
In my brain, the sterile mosquito did not spread and kill the entire world's
mosquito population, so I'm unsure why that would happen with the Lanternfly
population.

And I'm unconvinced the "kill 'em all!" approach to dousing everything in
insecticide is that much better.

But, it's obviously a very dangerous and powerful tool that should be
thoroughly considered. After watching the emerald ash borer devastate my home
state I am a but bullish on killing off invasive species.

------
mrfusion
What ever happened to stink bugs? A few years ago they were overrunning
everything. Now I hardly see them?

Did animals adapt to eat them?

~~~
tuxidomasx
Southern Virginia here. Stinkbugs are EVERYWHERE right now (and have been for
the past few years around the end of the summer and into fall).

As I read the headline for this post I saw one slowly meandering up my wall. I
also began to think about the possibility of this being done intentionally...

You see, the brown marmorated stinkbugs we have are native to asia. They have
no natural predators except for a tiny small wasp that parasticies their eggs
(also native to asia).

When I was researching them, I thought "What if China intentionally introduced
them to the USA as some sort of ecological attack?" That would be some next-
level warfare. Or just a really mean prank.

And then this impending laternfly invasion re-piqued my interest in this
theory. It turns out that a similar type of parasitic wasp is the natural
predator for laternflys too...

Could this really be a coincidence? Could it be a response to the new tariffs?
What if they offer to sell us some bio-engineered wasps (a la Monsanto ) to
help control our infestations? But the wasps die after a generation, so we
have to constantly buy then...

Of course it could still all be coincidence, but it's fun to think about.

~~~
lodi
Sounds like we just need to import some Chinese wasps to eat all of the
stinkbugs, then needlesnakes to eat the wasps, then needlesnake-eating
gorillas of course... and in the winter the gorillas will simply freeze to
death! Easy.

------
beautifulfreak
Wikipedia claims there are over 50,000 invasive species in the US.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasive_species_in_the_United...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasive_species_in_the_United_States)

~~~
jchb
Nope, it says "50,000 non-native species". Invasive species are those non-
native species that are thought to be harmful to the local ecosystem. Some
non-native species can actually be beneficial. The Wikipedia article doesn't
offer any number on how many of those 50,000 are invasive, but other sources
suggest less than 10%.

------
quotemstr
Why should spraying and biological control be our only options? HN has had a
bunch of stories lately on using CRISPR and gene drive to render entire
populations infertile. Let's do that here and make this species extinct.

~~~
tptacek
Probably because we're not generally in the habit of rendering entire species
extinct simply because they've been transported by humans out of their natural
habitat?

~~~
fouric
If care is taken to ensure that none of the genetically altered species
members make it back to their native region (Asia), then we wouldn't
extinguish the entire species, just the ones over here, where they're not part
of our natural ecosystem.

~~~
tptacek
That's an almost tautological argument, since the premise under which we'd be
exterminating them is that we _weren 't_ able to prevent that kind of
migration from happening.

~~~
fouric
While any migration of an invasive species generally situates the species in
its new region permanently until something kills it off (and as such you must
continually guard against invasive species entering), we would only have to
prevent re-migrations of the "tainted" species back to their native regions
for the amount of time that it would take them to die out due to the
sterilization. Much easier.

Edit: relaxed claims.

------
treebro
Invasive species are the worst - Parthenium is everywhere in India, and has
ruined wildlife sanctuaries and land for grazing. There seems to be no way to
eradicate it.

------
partisan
I encountered these for the first time visiting family in PA this summer.

They are very large, oblivious to people, and were absolutely everywhere.
Several of them landed on my since I probably looked like a small tree in my
dark shirt and pants. I don’t know if some predator will come along and
balance out the equation, but in the meantime, it certainly did appear to be
an invasion.

~~~
sodafountan
I live just outside of Philadelphia and found two of them this morning next to
the bushes outside of my apartment building, they're definitely here.

------
robterrell
Wow... I just found one of these in my yard Saturday. (North SF Bay area.) I
thought it was just a moth with a clever camouflage.

------
gerardnll
Curious... I always read 'America' when people from USA talks about them. What
about the people from the rest of the continent?

~~~
Raphmedia
Canadian here.

It's simply because "The United States of America" is a mouthful so everyone
either uses the last word "America" or shorten it to "USA".

"US" can sometimes be confusing because then you are not sure if people are
saying "us" the object pronoun or "us" the country", so "USA" it is.

~~~
ubernostrum
Also, there's more than one "United States" on the North American continent
(check out the official name of Mexico).

~~~
Raphmedia
Good point.

------
pastor_elm
Capitalism gets away with another crime. Pretty funny that importing cheap
rocks from China could/will cost us tens of billions of dollars, yet there is
still no questioning of whether we should continue to import cheap rocks from
China. Can't live without those Chinese rocks!

Seems pretty logical to me to put a negative externality tax on these types of
imports to cover our losses, but the idea isn't even floated. What am I
missing?

------
macawfish
This is what happens when we've destroyed the habitats of birds and
amphibians.

~~~
joecool1029
No, it’s what happens when you ship shit from China and nasties hitch a ride.

BMSB, chestnut blight, camel crickets, asian ladybugs, dutch elm disease, the
emerald ash borer, and this lantern fly are just some of the things we have to
thank global trade for.

EDIT: Forgot to shout out to the ghetto palm mentioned in the article, which
is another introduced species that the lanternfly is attracted to. (It earned
its name for thriving on city pollution, it is also likely the fastest growing
tree in North America now)

~~~
bluejekyll
It’s pretty unlikely that global trade is going to be rolled back.

Instead of tariffs, we should be protecting our industries by forcing pest
removal on all shipments from overseas. This would be more effective use of
the money and properly align the economics and risks of global trade.

The net outcome would be similar.

~~~
jchb
Doesn't the US have any quarantine requirements on imported products? I could
find requirements for live animals, but for other goods? The EU [1], like
Australia [2] has quarantine requirements on certain imported goods, including
plants.

How well the ones in EU are enforced I don't know. For sure they are not well
enforced for individuals arriving to airports - you can just walk straight in
with your suitecases. Compared to Australia, which I understand has very
strict controls also for individuals arriving.

[1][https://ec.europa.eu/food/plant/plant_health_biosecurity/non...](https://ec.europa.eu/food/plant/plant_health_biosecurity/non_eu_trade_en)
[2][https://www.business.gov.au/products-and-
services/importing-...](https://www.business.gov.au/products-and-
services/importing-and-exporting/quarantine-requirements-for-imported-goods)

