
Gokul's S.P.A.D.E. Toolkit: Square's decision-making framework - vii
https://coda.io/@gokulrajaram/gokuls-spade-toolkit
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aozgaa
> As a discrete set of alternatives start to emerge, I strongly suggest
> quantitatively modeling out the impact of each one and revisit your Setting
> — specifically the why, the optimization function. It can be very hard with
> ambiguous decisions to get down into the numbers, but it’s very valuable to
> do so. Figure out your value metric, your success criteria.

In software engineering decisions, estimating the superiority of an
alternative (eg: some performance measure) can be a long process depending in
the level of detail required. Napkin calculations can be done in minutes but
building a prototype can take as long as delivering a working product.

When the assessment of alternatives is abridged, confidence in the decision is
compromised. This may be one reason (not including changing requirements) why
agile methods are popular — they absolve stakeholders of committing to an
alternative up front.

Douglas Hubbard’s “How to Measure Anything” discusses some ways to assess the
information-value of improving estimates. His approach can help strike a
compromise between doing napkin calculations and building fully-functional
systems.

