
France to end sales of new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040 - rbanffy
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/france-petrol-diesel-ban-vehicles-cars-2040-a7826831.html
======
anovikov
That's too late! Doesn't even make sense. By 2040 they will be banned in
nearly all developed world. Volvo doesn't plan to build any of them starting
2020 by the way (while they will still build mild hybrids, which are 80% ICE
vehicles). Germany is planning a ban from 2030 and that seems spot on, by this
time technology will be definitely up to it.

Doing it by 2040 is same as doing nothing, because gasoline cars will be
clearly competed away by that time without any legislative action.

~~~
greeneggs
> Volvo doesn't plan to build any of them starting 2020 by the way

"Around 2024" is what they said yesterday.

"Volvo’s transition will be gradual. It plans to still produce existing models
with conventional engines after 2019, but it will no longer introduce new
models with the older technology. Depending on demand, Volvo will completely
phase out cars powered solely by gasoline or diesel by around 2024."

[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/business/energy-
environme...](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/business/energy-
environment/volvo-hybrid-electric-car.html)

~~~
rsync
""Around 2024" is what they said yesterday."

As they _always say_. Please don't give volvo any credit or publicity for
issuing the same old "three of four years from now we will have some more
bolted-on hybrid models and some electric-clown-car[1] that nobody wants."

BMW and Audi and Merc (and now Volvo) can just recycle these press releases
every few years - nothing changes but the three-years-off date.

[1] BMW i3, Merc B class ...

~~~
putsteadywere
I love my BMW i3. Am I the only one?

------
TonnyGaric
Yeah.. The Netherlands will ban it 15 years before France.

[https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/apr/18/netherlan...](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/apr/18/netherlands-
parliament-electric-car-petrol-diesel-ban-by-2025)

(Passed the lower house, just needs to pass through the Dutch senate to become
legally binding)

~~~
phreeza
Maybe easier to do for them because you can cross all of the Netherlands in a
modern EV already?

~~~
jacquesm
A good percentage of the Dutch holidays in France or Spain and they take their
caravan with them. That sort of trip will be hard on an EV.

I also wonder what kind of exception they intend to make for cargo transport
because those vehicles (especially the smaller ones) are extremely price
sensitive.

------
tyingq
I assume this is limited to personal vehicles? Commercial trucks don't seem to
be on a trajectory to meet this deadline.

Also curious if the electric grid in France is on some plan to accommodate
this as well.

~~~
lmm
The French grid has a substantial surplus, because they've got a sensible
nuclear policy.

~~~
legulere
That does not have anything to do with nuclear power. France is a net-importer
from Germany which is abolishing its nuclear power, while it is a net-exporter
to Switzerland which has plenty of nuclear and water power:
[https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a8/Echg_int...](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a8/Echg_internx_élec_France.jpg)

~~~
adrianN
Net use doesn't seem to be very informative. France could be exporting at
crucial times to cover base load while importing when Germany's wind farms
have nowhere to dump their electricity because it's too windy.

~~~
jacquesm
> Germany's wind farms have nowhere to dump their electricity because it's too
> windy.

That's not how it works though. Electricity isn't 'dumped' other than by
lowering the price of the producers. It's not as if there is a giant resistor
somewhere that gets connected in parallel to get rid of unwanted electrons.

And if there are no consumers that want the power at any price what happens
instead is that windmills will simply be furled. Depending on in which country
this happens if the contract between the consumers and the producers
stipulates it the windfarms that are requested to shut down will still get
paid as if they're operational.

This situation has occured in Scotland, Germany and China in the last year or
so. If France can buy power from Germany at rates that are lower than what it
costs them to produce the power themselves then that's actually great news for
renewables.

It is often said that windpower can not be used to provide base load power but
that's not the whole story, you actually can provide base load power but
you'll have to install a huge surplus in windpower to be able to do so with
some regularity and you may end up transporting energy across distances too
large to be economic.

The bigger problem with this is that even if windpower generated can fluctuate
quite rapidly the only plants capable of matching those fluctuations fast
enough are hydro and gas turbines. Neither coal nor nuclear has the capability
to follow that quickly.

------
csours
Is there a site that tracks these initiatives? As pointed out here, the
Netherlands has a similar plan, and I think Norway might. China has aggressive
plans for the electric vehicle percentage.

Different states in the USA have different plans.

------
polotics
Typical politician promise for an event to happen long after their term is
over...

~~~
nherment
Our ecology minister Nicolas Hulot is a known French environmental activist. I
wouldn't qualify him as the typical politician and I think most would agree.

He has been trying to influence our politics for some time now, from advising
politicians, threatening to run for president unless environmental strategies
get adopted, to refusing to become Ecology Minister without proper power
(ecology minister has mostly been a powerless position with no real drive).

Him accepting to join the current government was a sign that he would be able
to influence the country's environmental strategy. While it is probably too
early to see if he will have the right impact, it is good to see him drive
positive change.

While I would understand criticizing Nicolas Hulot's methods or his work at
the ministry, his motivations are clearly the betterment of France's approach
to ecology.

Blaming his policies as "Typical politician promise for an event to happen
long after their term is over..." shows a clear misunderstanding of our
minister and French politics.

~~~
JPLeRouzic
Nicolas Hulot is a known French environmental activist, _AND_ a politician and
a media producer. He survived in politics much longer than most "écologistes"
politicians.

I think French government decided to use more regulation and less funding (see
les echos [0]). But as most regulations come from EU, its regulation power is
quite limited as well, hence curious statements like this one by N. Hulot.

[0] [https://www.lesechos.fr/economie-france/budget-
fiscalite/030...](https://www.lesechos.fr/economie-france/budget-
fiscalite/030430628227-logement-sante-formation-les-pistes-pour-baisser-la-
depense-publique-2100297.php)

~~~
JPLeRouzic
In the CAE administration note [0] which is mentionned in the article cited
above there is the following text "Environmental policies are an emblematic
case. In theory, they should not weigh on the budget since it is a matter of
correcting an externality problem: the solution for this is to introduce an
incentive price signal, through eco-taxation or quota"

[0] [http://www.cae-eco.fr/IMG/pdf/cae-note043.pdf](http://www.cae-
eco.fr/IMG/pdf/cae-note043.pdf)

------
jabl
Well, if (big IF ?!) Tony Seba is right, it'll all be over by 2030 anyway for
traditional ICE cars (private ownership of ICE cars to be replaced by fleets
of autonomic electrically powered taxis):
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0)

------
Shivetya
just a few notes. this by no means a system entirely based around battery EV
technology. there is still time for ample replacements of traditional
combustion engines with fuel cells or similar. In many industries it is a near
requirement.

I am still not a fan of battery technology with regards to transportation in
its current state. nearly a half ton in weight to go less than three hundred
miles, usually a lot less, in optimal conditions. Coupled with charge times
that even the best are only down to an hour for a full charge.

the other initiatives he mentioned likely will get smacked by the WTO unless
it morphs into some kind of environmental policy with ever changing rules
about what is sustainable or not with regards to harvesting of crops. if
anything it would require subsidies to nations who crops are deemed
unacceptable.

~~~
unknown_apostle
Platinum is a nice speculative play on your first note.

"Replace diesels with batteries on timeline x-y-z. Bam, just like that.
Problem solved."

The platinum price has been dropping for many years, because Mr Market is
thinking 5 steps ahead of where we actually stand with this. With above ground
reserves likely dwindling, platinum has still managed to drop below gold again
(and rhodium has dropped below platinum).

But batteries are not yet ready to take over everything. Diesels or at least
combustion engines will keep improving for some time to come. In the meantime,
plenty of room for alternatives like the discredited fuel cell, which can also
use loads of platinum. (And on the supply side, you have the vulnerability
that the country supplying 70% of the world's platinum is looking increasingly
unstable.)

And for the record: I totally agree we should get rid of the combustion engine
as soon as possible.

------
digitalshankar
India to sell only electric cars by 2030.

~~~
sureshv
I would be more impressed if they replaced diesel trucks since they are likely
a larger contributor to air pollution in major Indian cities.

------
vxNsr
Speaking of electric, how efficient are those solar panels on the top of some
priuses? Is there any way of getting to the point of them having a significant
impact on the battery charge? Is Tesla thinking of adding this sort of thing
to their cars?

~~~
greglindahl
The energy produced rounds to zero - didn't Toyota use it to power a fan to
reduce interior heating when the car was parked in the sun?

------
jotjotzzz
Why is this even news? This is similar to not doing anything and letting time
pass-by. Where's the urgency? Most of the polar ice caps will have been melted
by then.

------
TheGirondin
Pretty meaningless when, thanks to capitalism, all new cars will be electric
long before that date arrives.

~~~
cm2187
Well, electric cars are technically superior when the range / time to charge
problems have been solved. Less noise, less pollution in cities, faster
accelerations. They will replace gas cars like CDs replaced Vinyl.

~~~
Spivak
> Electric cars are technically superior once all the problems that make them
> inferior to petrol cars are solved.

Not exactly a glowing recommendation.

~~~
Skunkleton
> Trains are technically superior to cars, once you figure out the problem of
> needing tracks.

------
jkingsbery
The article doesn't say what fuel source charging stations will use.

~~~
ogrisel
Nuclear will be capped to 50% of France production. Coal will close. Natural
gas is comparatively expensive in Europe. Large hydro is almost saturated (no
more mountains).

So renewables (wind and solar) will have to grow as a mechanical consequence
which is good because will get cheaper and cheaper and a large park of car
batteries will give opportunity for large scale demand management and
therefore help with the integration of new renewables.

France has long coasts to develop offshore wind, especially if floating
offshore wind becomes a thing.

~~~
briandear
Why wind and solar but not nuclear? Fields and field full of noisy and ugly
windmills when nuclear requires far less land. Windmills and solar kill birds
at a much larger rate than activists would seem to care about.

~~~
rsynnott
France already has enormous nuclear capacity. They won't want to add much
more; as it is, they're one of the few places to use nuclear energy for load-
following.

Wind turbines and solar don't kill a significant number of birds; this is an
old myth recently revived by Trump. In the US, wind turbines kill about 300k
birds per year, power lines kill 30 million (mostly through collision), cars
kill 200 million, and collision with buildings kills _600 million_.

While there's certainly room to improve on bird-wind turbine interactions,
it's just not a major problem, and any resources used would be better spent
improving the safety of buildings for birds.

~~~
computator
> wind turbines kill about 300k birds per year, power lines kill 30 million
> (mostly through collision), cars kill 200 million

Statistics like that have to be adjusted "per capita" in some fashion. It's
going to difficult to pick the right units for comparison. Maybe the basis
could be birds killed per kilowatt-hours or joules worth of electricity
generated (windmills), carried (power lines), and consumed (cars).

~~~
rsynnott
I mean, you could do this, certainly, but is it necessarily useful? The point
of the numbers was just to show that turbines are very small compared to other
bird hazards. Even if there were 1000 times as many turbines as they are,
they'd still kill fewer birds than building collisions, and no-one but
ornithologists is really calling for anything to be done about buildings as a
hazard to birds.

The whole bird thing is a complete red herring.

------
alex_duf
It's ridiculous. ICE sales will drop long before that.

~~~
gruturo
Quite the opposite. The fact that ICE sales are expected to drop long before
that makes it a "safe" promise because it's happening anyway - a politician's
dream - but it still has value: it is likely to cause further acceleration of
the drop of ICE sales.

And that's good for the environment (doubly so in France, where a lot of
electricity is not generated by carbon-emitting methods).

~~~
alex_duf
By ridiculous, what I meant is that it's a PR stunt.

If anything it signals to the auto industry "don't worry you still have time
to produce combustion engines"

~~~
netsharc
Considering the German and French governments were found to have lobbied for
continued lax emissions testing during Dieselgate,
[https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/sep/24/uk-
franc...](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/sep/24/uk-france-and-
germany-lobbied-for-flawed-car-emissions-tests-documents-reveal) , it
shouldn't be a surprise. Non-corrupt beacons of democracies my ass...

~~~
euyyn
> Non-corrupt beacons of democracies

What European has ever said that of their government?

------
bohegeek
now that's as courageous as banning propeller-driven aircraft for commercial
long distance flight by 1970...

------
ea016
The title is misleading: they announced a ban of the _sales_ of new petrol
vehicles by 2040 [0].

[0] (in french) [http://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2017/07/06/nicolas-
hul...](http://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2017/07/06/nicolas-hulot-
annonce-une-prime-pour-remplacer-les-vehicules-les-plus-
polluants_5156706_3244.html)

~~~
mtgx
That's at least 10 years too late for sales of new cars, unless they means
hybrid. I don't think any new car should be gas-powered after 2030. And Volvo
is already doing it 11 years earlier. I guess they may change that goal later,
and it could be just a "signal" that these governments are taking banning of
gas-powered cars seriously, but at the same time they don't want the car
makers to freak out.

~~~
cjrp
> Volvo is already doing it 11 years earlier

They're not getting rid of petrol/diesel engines completely, since they'll
still be selling hybrids.

~~~
twothamendment
Hybrids, in my opinion, are the next logical step for the masses. A pure
electric vehicle has range and charge time issues that keep many of us from
considering them. Plug in hybrids make the transition even easier.

------
Helmet
I'm at a loss here. Why is this authoritarian decree being cheerleaded on this
site?

~~~
mindcrime
_I 'm at a loss here. Why is this authoritarian decree being cheerleaded on
this site?_

It wasn't always like this. At one time there were a LOT more of traditional
hacker-mindset types here, the ones who held to ideals like:

    
    
        Mistrust authority.
    
        Always yield to the Hands-On Imperative.
    
        Promote decentralization.
    

But things have shifted over the past few years and authoritarian / big
government ideas have gained a lot of currency here. I attribute it to
something like the "Eternal September" phenomenon. As more and more new users
flood in, the percentage of old-skool "hackers" who hold to those ideals
falls.

~~~
oblio
Oooooor, HackerNews has become more international and as a result has moved
further left since as far as political axes go, the US is to the right of
almost any other country on this planet, especially among the developed ones
;)

~~~
mindcrime
Mistrust of authority and aversion to bureaucracy isn't really a "left" OR a
"right" thing though. That's why libertarians, for example, are often referred
to as "left of left and right of right".

I'd go as far as to say that "left" and "right" don't even really mean
anything anymore. Those terms now are just pejoratives that refer to a
perceived group that "doesn't agree with me". I mean, who in this day and age
has a strong stake in the preservation of the French monarchy?

~~~
euyyn
> I'd go as far as to say that "left" and "right" don't even really mean
> anything anymore. Those terms now are just pejoratives that refer to a
> perceived group that "doesn't agree with me".

I can see that being the case in the US, and in other countries with de jure
or de facto bipartidism. But left and right still retain their economic
meaning.

------
mnglkhn2
2040 is a long time away from now! It is a bet made that by then there will be
no need to rely on diesel for transport trucks. It looks more like virtue
signaling at the moment.

~~~
d_e_solomon
> What started off as a clever way to win arguments has become a lazy put
> down. It’s (Virtue Signaling) too often used to cast aspersions on opponents
> as an alternative to rebutting their arguments. In fact, it’s becoming
> indistinguishable from the thing it was designed to call out: smug posturing
> from a position of self-appointed authority.

[https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/20/virtue...](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/20/virtue-
signalling-putdown-passed-sell-by-date)

~~~
mnglkhn2
:) you might be correct. My point is that showing up in 2017 to tell how great
you're going to be in 2040 does not have any practical reason other than to
make nice for the moment of today.

I would love to hear your argument as to why you think this is something
newsworthy and relevant.

The underlying message was in fact to show that the French respect the Paris
agreement, whereas US just pulled out of it.

So, what better way for the new French president and his administration to
show how great they are at promising 23 years into the future?!

~~~
d_e_solomon
Sure, sorry to be slow in replying - busy day. So it goes further than that.
It sets an expectation for industry that they will need to develop technology
to make the 2040 deadline.

If auto firm A makes the deadline and is able to sell awesome EV vehicles and
auto firm B and C have only so-so, because they didn't take the law seriously,
A is going to sell a lot more vehicles. So autofirms have to start considering
these sorts of government regulations in their R&D budgets today. The
investments made today will help determine their outcomes in 2040.

