

Microsoft’s OS Business Has Started to Decline - echair
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/microsofts-vista-problem-by-the-numbers/

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gamble
I've often wondered how much of Vista's adoption problem in corporations came
down to the higher system requirements. It was pretty common for companies
upgrading from earlier versions of Windows to buy the rock-bottom cheapest
systems capable of running XP, much less Vista. Upgrading to Vista would mean
replacing every computer in the office, on top Microsoft's bill. Why do that
if there's nothing fundamentally unsatisfying with XP?

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gaius
I actually watched my work PC booting up the other day and noticed that XP is
(c) 2001. No-one seems able to clearly articulate what exactly it is Vista
does that XP can't, in a corporate setting at least. That's Microsoft's
problem, that XP was "good enough". Whereas if you look at their server
products, the reasons to move from NT4 to 2000 to 2003 to 2008 are all, the
message is much clearer.

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jwilliams
I agree entirely - they are pushing themselves into a "change for change's
sake" scenario.

The same applies to their other cash cow - Office. Office 2007 has some
improvements I like... Powerpoint and Excel have some usability
improvements... but on the whole.. Word for me is still Word as it was in Word
2000. There is nothing in 2007 that is that compelling. For many people it's
probably Word 98, or Word 2.0.

Apple has avoided this by keeping OS X and the evolving it. This model seems
to be working much better for now.

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gaius
Whereas with Apple, if you ask "why should I upgrade from Tiger to Leopard"
the answer is simply, "Time Machine". Or with Sun, why should I upgrade from
Sol8 to 10, the answer is "dtrace and zones". MS really needs a snappy
comeback like that.

The most complex single document I've ever worked on was my MSc dissertation,
30,000 words, lots of cross-references, figures, footnotes, etc etc. I can't
remember if I used Word 97 or 2000, but it was more than sufficient for the
task. I could have done it in Word 6 or Word 5.1, even. It truly baffles me
why people (even within MS itself) want to keep upgrading it.

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Hexstream
I think the advertised domain should clearly be _bits.blogs.nytimes.com_ , not
_nytimes.com_.

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netcan
Where is the competition? All this 'MS is finished' talk. Fine. I understand
the reasoning. Makes sense. I just don't see any potential replacement.

OSs may eventually fade into the background. That's a possibility. But that
has nothing to do with MS.

The Vista launch & the netbook sales as described in the article would have
been a great opportunity for any competing OS to play. But none are there to
rise.

Apple plays a different game. 1. Do we really think one company will do all
the hardware & all the software of all PCs (or even half of them)? 2. They
would need to cut margins. No reason for them to do that. . Linux had a run
with the Eee PCs V1. Heard it got good reviews. But it didn't stick.

Anyway, it looks very possible that Vista is just a below average product that
gets below average sales & the next windows will be released, Vista forgotten,
& nothing (bar a couple of years of slightly reduced sales in one department)
changed in the long run.

They were weak for a couple of years.It might have been a good time for an
attack. But noone was there to do it.

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jimbokun
Linux and OS X probably won't overtake Windows in market share in any
foreseeable timeframe.

What they are doing is book ending Windows at the low and high end of the
market. Apple is doing an excellent job of sniping the high end part of the PC
market. And Linux makes possible a lower end of the PC market that Microsoft
would prefer not exist because of what it does to their margins.

~~~
raganwald
I suggest Apple wants the low end of the market as well, just that) they are
taking some of that market with the iPhone/Touch platform rather than with
Macintosh.

~~~
netcan
I would say that's a different market. An iphone isn't a cheap alternative to
a pc. It a supplement.

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kzar
I think the article missed the main cause, Visa isn't very good so people
don't want it.

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aneesh
I'd be wary of proclaiming this as "the beginning of the end", as the article
title seems to imply.

There were two things wrong with Vista: 1) issues with 3rd party software &
drivers, and 2) steep hardware requirements. The first was due to enhancements
to user accounts & security, and is largely fixed today.

Anyway, people aren't going to be using Windows XP for the next 5 years, so
they'll switch en masse to Windows 7 or to OS X. Apple still isn't competing
at the lower price points, so unless Windows 7 is just really bad, I think
we'll see the numbers pick back up when Win7 comes out.

~~~
jimbokun
The real possible "beginning of the end" problem is the popularity of $300
netbooks, and Microsoft only getting $30 on these versus $70 for a more
"traditional" PC.

If this trend continues to accelerate, the revenue Microsoft gets per PC will
steadily decline and likely offset the increase in revenue from increased
volume.

