
Navigant Research Leaderboard Report: Automated Driving - rbanffy
http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/navigant-research-leaderboard-report-automated-driving
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deepnotderp
Navigant's methodology is deeply flawed:
[http://www.thedrive.com/opinion/9024/who-is-really-1-in-
self...](http://www.thedrive.com/opinion/9024/who-is-really-1-in-self-driving-
cars-you-wouldnt-know-it-from-navigants-controversial-report?xid=twittershare)

~~~
rndmize
I agree with most of what he says, but I would put Tesla at the top of the
list by a fair degree.

> In 2016, Waymo logged more than 635,000 miles while testing its autonomous
> vehicles on California’s public roads compared to just over 20,000 for all
> its competitors combined.

[https://www.forbes.com/sites/chunkamui/2017/02/08/waymo-
is-c...](https://www.forbes.com/sites/chunkamui/2017/02/08/waymo-is-crushing-
it/#73cb28c6aa9f)

> Tesla’s sensor suite has so far been much lighter than Google’s, but that is
> now changing with the second generation sensor suite making its way to
> customers now. As of the end of October 2016, Google had accumulated about
> 3.5 million miles of data (2.2 million autonomous and 1.3 million manual
> miles) and it is adding about 25,000 miles per week with a fleet of just
> over 50 prototypes.

> On the other hand, Tesla is now adding millions of miles every day from its
> first gen Autopilot. The second generation, which aims to be fully self-
> driving like Google’s, should catch up with the first generation in term of
> data gathering during the second half of 2017, but with a much greater scope
> of information with now 360-degree camera coverage powered by ‘Tesla
> Vision’, as well as better ultrasonics and Tesla’s new radar technology.

[https://electrek.co/2016/11/13/tesla-autopilot-billion-
miles...](https://electrek.co/2016/11/13/tesla-autopilot-billion-miles-data-
self-driving-program/)

It feels to me like Waymo is trying to go from standard cars all the way to
level 4 in one leap, but with a tiny number of test vehicles and locations.
Tesla is going at it piecemeal instead, but are increasing their data they
collect and the capabilities of each generation exponentially; and as their
customer base grows, their data collection grows in scope and usefulness well
beyond what Waymo can deploy out of pocket.

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justin66
Volvo, who is testing autonomous vehicles on public roads, is in the bottom
half of the pack in terms of "execution." Okay...

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omarforgotpwd
GM and Ford are the leaders in self driving? Sounds like they funded this
report. I see Tesla and Google as the leaders but maybe that's just my Silicon
Valley bias.

~~~
frgtpsswrdlame
Why do you see Tesla and Google as leading?

~~~
inventtheday
Google because of their publicly reported disengagement data - as low as once
every 6,000 miles. Tesla because of their fleet approach to mapping and
training. I agree that these two are at the front of the pack.

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tabeth
Understandably, this is focusing on the driving of traditional, 5(+/-)
passenger vehicles. Is there a reason more work isn't done on driving buses
and other high(er) occupancy vehicles?

I would also imagine self driving a bus would be simpler, as unlike cars, they
have mechanisms to change the flow of traffic themselves (some buses have stop
signs, plus bus only lanes, bus stops, etc.).

~~~
seanmcdirmid
Higher occupancy vehicles are already well amortized, and they don't really
have parking problems. But it will happen eventually.

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matt_wulfeck
> _These players are rated on 10 criteria: vision; go-to market strategy;
> partners; production strategy; technology; sales, marketing, and
> distribution; product capability; product quality and reliability; product
> portfolio; and staying power._

These metrics seem absolutely stacked to favor incumbents with "wait and see"
approach.

Why not simply have self driving car algos compete in a random and controlled
computer environment and see which performs the best from a clearly objective
standpoint? Why such completely subjective metrics in this scale when these
types of technologies can be measured so easily with a single computer?

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rucker
I'm not sure I buy this. For one thing, the article makes no mention of the
major pivot Ford (who they call a leader of the pack) just made in investing
in Argo AI: [http://www.theverge.com/2017/2/10/14579126/ford-argo-ai-
one-...](http://www.theverge.com/2017/2/10/14579126/ford-argo-ai-one-billion-
investment-self-driving-cars)

------
mbloom1915
Anyone have more insight into how Uber is competing here?? They're lidar tech
is currently tied up in a $2B lawsuit w/ Waymo and it looks like there are a
few smoking guns. Perhaps the report is trying to make a consultant-like case
but bottom line is there aren't a lot of autonomous vehicle cos out there
today and Ford/GM can make noise (if they want to) since they have mature
manufacturing capabilities

~~~
mbloom1915
the report just seems like a money grab and not necc. making a good case for
any company or putting a tight criteria around the output

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vajrabum
GM owns Cruise Automation which I think rank them higher than I would have
guessed a year ago. That can do some cool stuff.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Tp6Ubf6mE4](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Tp6Ubf6mE4)
Any informed opinions on where that technology ranks against Waymo and Tesla?

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biomodel
Anyone who has worked in a consulting company knows that reports like these
are a complete joke - assembled by a team of overworked kids fresh out of
college for largely tech illiterate managers under narrow deadlines.

This is simply to win over new consulting clients and has very little bearing
on reality

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frik
Can this be right? Tesla and Waymo as contender and Ford and GM as leader? I
mean Tesla autopilot v2 and Waymo (Google) are pretty impressive.

~~~
maxerickson
They are probably looking more broadly than just the tech. Ford has decent
tech:

[http://www.theverge.com/2016/12/28/14100278/ford-new-self-
dr...](http://www.theverge.com/2016/12/28/14100278/ford-new-self-driving-car-
fusion-hybrid-testing)

[https://medium.com/@ford/building-fords-next-generation-
auto...](https://medium.com/@ford/building-fords-next-generation-autonomous-
development-vehicle-82a6160a7965)

But they also have the ability to be producing vehicles with that tech, at
volume, in a couple of years. Waymo has essentially 0 manufacturing capacity
and Tesla is still spooling up to get their annual production comparable to
monthly production for GM or Ford.

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rdlecler1
Detroit paid good money for this report. Driverless cars are going to be based
on data and talent. Just because Ford and GM overpaid for a couple of small
startups does not make them a contender. No one has more data right now than
Tesla. That they were in the middle of the pack speaks volumes to the flaws in
this report.

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ganfortran
Where is GM's product?

~~~
mbloom1915
if we're talking about level 1 autonomy, then I guess you could say every car
is their product? or for that matter, every care of every manufacturer is
autonomous since it has a backup camera and lane correction =/

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whafro
Tough to tell what this is really saying from this side of the paywall, but it
certainly doesn't fit the current narrative in the tech industry.

On the other hand, in looking for a new crossover SUV this year, I was
surprised at how many of the pieces of autonomous driving the 2017 Ford Escape
actually had in production. It's not as headline-grabbing as autopilot for
sure, but perhaps it's a relevant approach.

I've been pretty bullish about Volvo's approach (and put the brakes on that
SUV search to wait for the 2018 XC60), so it's a little disappointing to see
them relatively far down that list, while VW/Audi, which I see as weaker in
these areas, gets a better position.

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dochtman
tl;dr some consulting company says that the auto companies are doing better
than the tech companies by scoring "18 companies working on self-driving
technology on 10 different criteria related to strategy, manufacturing, and
execution."

The report itself is not available without logging in, apparently. The claims
seem rather vague to me, and (admittedly, as a techy) it would seem easy to
undervalue experience with software engineering at large in this endeavour.

~~~
StavrosK
> The report itself is not available without logging in, apparently

If you log in it just tells you the price: $3,800.

