
Gray Goo - mertnesvat
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gray_goo
======
fennecfoxen
Gray goo is only an existential threat to civilization if you have _magical_
nanomachines that can metabolize useful energy out of concrete, sand, glass,
and dirt, in an exothermic reaction. Also, it would help a lot if these
fragile little machines are also magically immune to excessive heat, and if
you ignore them facing down bacteria and other life forms.

While you work on these problems I’ll be over here worried about the
pollution-like side effects of ordinary endothermic nanomachines.

~~~
clSTophEjUdRanu
Bacteria already tries to do this. Leads me to believe it's impossible.

~~~
SAI_Peregrinus
Bacteria are the biggest argument against grey goo. They already are, they
already exist, and they're already everywhere, yet things other than bacteria
still exist. They've had several billion years of evolution to work on it too.

They're probably in local maxima, not in any global maximum, but it's also
likely that there is no single global maximum given how different the
requirements are for using different energy sources.

~~~
Symmetry
The thing I would worry about it replicators that use stronger chemical bonds
than bacteria do and can eat bacteria but can't be eaten by bacteria. They
would probably have to reproduce much more slowly due to higher energy
requirements but if they end up eating everything in the long run it might not
matter.

~~~
DagAgren
If using stronger chemical bonds was advantageous, bacteria probably would be
doing it already.

The weak bonds is what complex chemistry and thus complex functionality
possible. Stronger bonds is dead matter, and dead matter does not compete.

~~~
philipkglass
Incorporating fluorine in a molecule offers additional flexibility over the
more common chlorine and bromine compounds commonly found in natural products.
For example, the fluoroquinolone antibiotics are distinguished by their
introduction of fluorine, yielding compounds more effective than found in
nature.

There are a few fluorinated natural products made by wild organisms, but they
are very rare considering the elemental abundance of fluorine on Earth and the
high utility found for fluorine in pharmaceutical development:

[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23034231](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23034231)

The strong bonds formed by fluorine, and its formation of insoluble compounds
with alkaline earth metals, probably explains the rarity of natural
fluorinated products. The fluorinated natural products are no more "dead
matter" than other poisons evolved by plants against herbivores, but it's hard
to evolve out of local minima that exclude fluorinated compounds.

------
codeulike
Its worth thinking about the idea that we are actually made of highly
sophisticated self-replicating nanotech machines, and although they've been
pretty successful for the last few billion years, they're still nowhere near
good enough to achieve exponential growth that consumes all matter.

Maybe someone somewhere has already explored the theory that nanotech that
could re-shape all matter around it is probably impossible due to the energy
challenges inherent in re-shaping arbitrary atoms.

~~~
ragebol
Hasn't the world population of humans been increasing exponentially? And
consuming, well, not all matter but still quite a lot? Once we have the
technology (and will) to mine asteroids that'll even get worse.

~~~
goatlover
It's projected to level out sometime around mid century and then start
declining. And that's because birth rates decrease to a below replacement
level everywhere women are granted the freedom to control their reproduction,
which is a global trend.

~~~
onceUponADime
Physics doesent take a break because you are tiny.. replicator weight would
crush other replicators.

------
mabbo
Tiny machines that extract energy and material from their environment in order
to replicate themselves... isn't that bacteria? Life? Isn't that all around us
already? Aren't _we_ that?

The only way I can imagine gray goo being a real threat is if we can design
such a machine that is more efficient and resilient at extracting energy and
matter into copies of itself better than 4 billion years of evolution has made
the existing life on Earth. And while, yes, we are often able to do better
than life at certain tasks, I have a hard time believing on a large scale of
time and space we can win that arm wrestle.

Life is optimized in every direction and has tried most of the tricks. It's
hard to beat.

~~~
gallerdude
Life is really good at finding a local maximum, but not a global maximum.
Cheetah's were evolved to be really fast, but they're still slower than a
motorcycle.

~~~
cwp
Cheetahs evolved to chase down prey. They are much better at that than a
motorcycle. (Or even a person on a motorcycle!)

------
nickhalfasleep
Anything nano-size needs nano-power. Solar panels? Chemical batteries? Small
nuclear plant? In the end, thermodynamics saves us from grey goo.

And if you try to co-opt a biological process for fuel, say ATP, then your
nano-bot is a tasty treat for other organic bacteria who have evolved over a
billion years to compete and eat in this sector.

~~~
senectus1
so what if its not a grey goo but a grey ecosystem?

Small machines all designed to do small _different_ jobs. then you'd get
currents of grey good just supplying power because you have currents of grey
goo proving "food" to them because you'd have currents of grey goo
disassembling everything around them to provide food and materials to currents
of grey goo that make the different sorts of grey goo needed to perform all
the previous steps.

I feel that "grey goo" gets used as a descriptor for one thing... when i
reality it would be lots of different sorts of things.

having said that, I think we're a loooong way form having to be worried about
that as well.

------
Nasrudith
To be an utter smartass gray goo long predates us, we call them microbes.

Really Grey goo is a conceptual repeat of bad scientific models like Ice 9.
Complete with bad models of chemistry. In this case they forget that the
molecular scale is not the same as macroscopic, often assuming molecules are
like macroscopic materials that stay still until they act instead of reacting
to conditions. Assuming that a self replicating hydrocarbon consumer could
break down anything carbon based would be like worrying that the oil spill
will start ripping carbon from the air and hydrogen from water to make more
oil and create a powder keg world world without any water.

Plus addition forgetting the constraints other than raw resources like
dissipation, surface area, and power supply.

------
smoyer
I have read through "Engines of Creation" (the book where this phrase was
coined) three or four times and learn something new with each reading. I've
also bought three copies because I keep giving it away (last time to a friend
who became CEO of a nano-tech company). I'm not necessarily scared of the
scenario described as gray goo in chapter 4 but I also think it's a good
warning to nano-practitioners.

[https://amzn.to/2uPHGmV](https://amzn.to/2uPHGmV)

------
xorand
A scenario more interesting than boundless self-replication is Ackermann goo
[0], [1]. Grey goo starts with a molecular machine able to replicate itself.
You get exponentially more copies, hence goo. Imagine that we could build
molecules like programs which execute themselves via chemical interactions
with the environment. Then, for example, a Y combinator machine would appear
as a linearly growing string [2]. No danger here. Take Ackermann(4,4) now.
This is vastly more complex than a goo made of lots of small dumb copies.

[0]
[https://chemlambda.github.io/collection.html#58](https://chemlambda.github.io/collection.html#58)

[1]
[https://chemlambda.github.io/collection.html#59](https://chemlambda.github.io/collection.html#59)

[2]
[https://chemlambda.github.io/collection.html#259](https://chemlambda.github.io/collection.html#259)

~~~
carapace
Thanks for the nightmares! :-)

~~~
xorand
:) Probably is a sort of revenge on people more interested in semantics than
geometry.

------
ngvrnd
While I agree that the grey goo sensationalism is wrong, it would also be
wrong to throw the baby out with the bathwater. First admit that single-celled
life is really just very very advanced self-reproducing nano-machinery, or
else explain why it isn't. There is some risk here, just not of the
sensationalized variety.

------
sergiotapia
Awesome grey goo story:

[https://qntm.org/gorge](https://qntm.org/gorge)

also by the same author:

[https://qntm.org/responsibility](https://qntm.org/responsibility)

~~~
rtkwe
At least the "Responsibility" problem is relatively easy to solve, use the
manipulator to move and provide power to the computer. Since they're able to
manifest things into the universe they can probably just provide the
appropriate voltage at the end of the cables going to the computer and
similarly provide any other needs like cooling (this spot is 0.1K or whatever
temperature the device needs).

------
nnq
_DON 't disconsider this nightmare scenario too much -_ While _engineering_
(as in classically designing, prototyping etc.) such a grey goo might be
almost impossibly-hard because of chemical energetic constraint and the
obvious fact that 3bn years of evolution were not enough to bring about such
effective "grey goo" that could "consume the planet", there are some chilling
new developments:

We're starting to be good at (1) using machine learning to "learn" designs for
components much faster than naive-genetical-algorithms (aka "evolution"), and
this will only get better as ML improves, and (2) we're getting better and
better at simulating-in-software biological-like processes (and quantum
computing will help with this). So we are pretty much in shape to
_vaaaaaastly_ outpower 3bn years of evolution.

A virtual + physical nanobots-evolution-gym where AI agents evolve and compete
at creating better and better self-replicating nano-machines will give you the
nightmare scenario easily...

 _Basically anything related to the combo of "ML + nanotech" should be
carefully watched and monitored!_

(And if you're willing to not start from scratch but instead use existing bio-
building-blocks like viruses and bacteria, and don't have as high goals as
"consuming all matter on earth" and instead you settle for "most multi-
cellular living matter" then _technically we already have the capabilities._
You probably know what I mean.)

------
xwkd
Sure, it's unlikely given what we know about energy, but consider it a thought
experiment about the propagation of externalities.

What other seemingly inconsequential machinations create systemic ripple
effects? What forest are we missing for the trees?

------
rubyn00bie
Sounds like a really boring, less threatening, version of of a strange quark.

It seems like it would be more likely they'd consume themselves if they're
able to consume matter so indiscriminately... The amount of matter inside two
or three of them waiting to be digested would be game for any of the other
little shits to devour.

It also can be see in an episode of Futurama where Bender multiplies turning
all the liquid on earth into booze, and then consuming it all. Which is
probably about as close to real as this idea will ever be...

------
carapace
FWIW, the oceans are "Blue" Goo:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_bacteriophage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_bacteriophage)

> Marine viruses, although microscopic and essentially unnoticed by scientists
> until recently, are the most abundant and diverse biological entities in the
> ocean. Viruses have an estimated abundance of 10^30 in the ocean...

Ten to the _thirtieth_ power.

1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

------
Symmetry
Our popular conception of nanotechnology was probably shaped a lot by the fact
that _Engines of Creation_ was published at the same time as _Blood Music._

~~~
Filligree
A great book, but not terribly realistic. Once again people try to reason from
fictional evidence.

~~~
lachlan-sneff
Nanosystems is much more realistic.

~~~
Filligree
I was referring to Blood Music, but... yes, you're right. Nanosystems is the
technical manual, as it were; Engines of Creation is more of an intuition-
builder, and not wholly accurate.

~~~
lachlan-sneff
Ah, sorry. Totally missed the context of your comment.

------
toddh
In The Issues We Face at the Nano Scale
([https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEjx48z8Lzs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEjx48z8Lzs))
the Gray Goo threat is debunked. Nanomachines need a really controlled
environment to live. They need the right PH, salt, and temperature. Change any
parameters and nanomachines won't work. World saved.

------
rafaelvasco
Makes me think about the creation of everything: All that exists in Earth now,
and probably in the entire Universe started as a blob of proto matter, the
core of everything, which by still mostly unknown mechanisms, specialized and
replicated itself into every different element that forms us, animals, plants,
minerals, and everything else; Interesting thought;

------
8bitsrule
I've seen a comic story in which Gyro Gearloose invents a machine which he
puts on an island. He turns it on and is distracted. On return, much of the
island has been turned into ice cream (frappe, I think). So this concept goes
back a ways.

------
tombert
Oh, Futurama had an episode about something like this [0]

Eventually the clones turn all the water in the world to alcohol!

[0] [https://theinfosphere.org/Benderama](https://theinfosphere.org/Benderama)

~~~
jaredwiener
and of course, there's an XKCD for that
[https://xkcd.com/865/](https://xkcd.com/865/)

~~~
komali2
Someone also just wrote a sequel to Crichton's Andromeda Strain that was kinda
a little entertaining but not at all Crichton-like. Quite disappointing.

~~~
dynamite-ready
Speaking of Michael Crichton, he'd actually wrote this -
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prey_(novel)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prey_\(novel\))

Which is pretty much the exact same concept.

Entertaining book. Made me a fan.

------
hpliferaft
Love the trope. I read a story in either Asimov's or Analog in the late 80s
that featured this. I'd love to read it again. Any sf superfan out there know
the title offhand?

~~~
sgslo
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moonseed_(novel)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moonseed_\(novel\))
perhaps?

------
alpineidyll3
How the eff did this make the YC frontpage?

~~~
nurettin
It was submitted 1 month ago and 7 months ago with no replies or points. This
time, as soon as it was submitted, people started commenting and upvoting.

------
daveslash
Sounds similar to replicators in the TV show " _Startgate SG-1_ "

~~~
ben_w
This concept was probably what inspired that plot arc.

------
gamesbrainiac
There is also a RTS game for those interested:
[https://store.steampowered.com/app/290790/Grey_Goo/](https://store.steampowered.com/app/290790/Grey_Goo/)

~~~
oefrha
As a huge fan of Starcraft, Warcraft and C&C franchises I was pretty excited
when it was announced (as the classical RTS genre was clearly on life support
if not already dead at that point), but frankly it turned out to be a terrible
RTS that’s not worth anyone’s time.

------
pedro1976
A gray goo consuming all carbon based structures that replicates at the same
time, would be based on carbon too. Therefore they would eat themselves.

------
qubex
Is this a Fermi Paradox explanation?

------
onceUponADime
It makes for great horror story material.

I once worked on a grey goo enemy in a game. The idea, was to have the grey
goo capture there victims, storing them as data. Reviving them from time to
time for seconds, to prevent degradation.. where did i keep the file, ah here:

<Musician>

.. You will grow tired, you must rest, you can not be eternally creative, and
once you rest- you will be rescued like the rest of them. <Lead Developer>

... DOMUS BACKDOOR BASILISK HIJACK COGNAC DAFOODILL ANNA: FREEZE PROGRAM ...
<CULT LEADER>

.. Rapture is upon us, the Silver tentacles of gods justice shall wrap
themselves around us. (Squeaks) .. And inside us, to be part of the divine,
oh, this is cold and hurts..

<Scientists>

.. Congratulations, the hacking proof system you where so proud of- it works..

.. you dont get it, we need Aeons of computationpower in a day to break the
encryption and restore the stored people-

.. Gentlemen, lets focus on the good news- which is that the run-away-
assembler, spares plants and lower animals

.. marathon of stupidity- to avoid it going exponential, let it tap
geothermal- and now we cant cut it off..

.. Listen Domus, all humans are mortal. Cancer, this sort of runaway deadly
exponential growth is what makes us human. One has to let go off the old, to
embrace the new. You cant just take the philosophy department for a walk..

.. Radiation free Room. No need to put as in storage, this is a rad-free room.
And we are living from saline solution. What do you mean- Radon & Radicals?

.. As a medical authority, i declare radiation healthy- it trains the repair-
functionality of DNA. No evolution without radiation. Come on, you dumb
machine-

<Soldier>

.. Fallback to the AGrav, watch your flanks- keep firing, do not touch the
walls or floor ...

<SinglePerson>

.. The sun, with every flicker - its so much bigger. Like a million years gone
by on the fly.. ..(paranoid) they are after me, they are in the walls, in the
ceeling, but they will not get me- the whispering voices, talking about -
SUICIDE PREVENTION MODE..

.. the water beneath the bridge is incredible clear today..

.. (on toilett/reading newspaper) Whatever it is it can wait for another
minute. And now you flood the floor-..

.. We greet you oh mighty one, we have been praying for the rapture ever
since. We want to offer support cleansing the world of sinners..

.. I demand my conciousness continue while in storage. Aaaaahhh....

<Couple>

.. I love you- I love you too..

.. Kids close your eyes, we love you very much- everything will be all right!

<ZeroDay Pensioneers>

.. didnt even smoke. And now cancer, from natural radiation. One mangled
protein- one flipped bit- and BAM, your dead old man walking. Domus are you
even listening (House) Yes, i am. I will miss you, you are a vital part ..

<Kid on Scooter>

.. Mum? Dad? .. Its soo cold .. 10 .. 11 .. Im coming now. You better hide!

<Mum in Kitchen>

.. Honey is that you? I have a surprise for you- .. .. So that was your life
Joan, really outstanding, mum was right, up to no good.. .. 3 Martinis and
then even the Facility Managment System gets too you..

<Major>

..-Yes, one ticket offworld - wait make that five. What do you mean - the bank
is gone. I can see it walking towards the space port

<Military> ..- it WHAT, it ate the airbase? Impossible, im at the airbase-..

.. Day 512 after the Zero-Goo. Our Submarine will surface today for air.
Beating will continue till moral improves..

.. So the nuclear option is off limits, due to the population still being
encoded in the Goo? ..

<Couple TV>

..<she>You think, the Goo is real? <he> Nah, its the usual fear mongering. If
it where real, there would be panic..

.. what a lovely quite evening, not a sound in the whole city..

.. what a trip dude, what a trip.. the wall is melting and the floor is
mercury..

.. have you seen the smiths. When her house grew those veins - that bitch was
furious..

<Refugees>

.. Yes its cold here, very cold, but the freezing keeps it at bay. Just check
your cloths for silver flakes and you will be fine..

.. I tell you we need to dig deeper. This is no ore above us- these are plague
roots..

.. So no thermal footprint, no CO2, no electronics and constant camouflage -
and maybe, just maybe ..

.. Smoke, i didnt put the fire out. If i can see it, it can see it. Stupid,
stupid, stupid!..

.. I will never drink again, i swear by St.Aloisius, that was the last drop...

.. Hello, i woke up in a hospital, everyone was gone. Is this the rapture or
the Singularity? I can hear you moving, you know-..

<Astronaut>

-.. so Yuri i said to myself, what choice do you got. Your the last, your sick and non-sanes, why become a space-mummy - just go down and at least get buried with the others. So Yuri, i said, at least make a memorial..

<Alien Astronaut>

.. so for my clan, i claim this ancient world, for the Empire. The flag, its
dragged intot the - ground, what the hell-..

.. the world was infested and even orbital bombardment did not reduce the
plague. We are lucky to be alive and uncontaminated. Imagine if it would have
infected the Quadrant Hub-..

<Primate> .. So Uluth, banging rock spear, when silver god tells her about
long sleep..

<Domus 4.0 Regressive Behaviour> .. Housekeeping: How can the silversurfer-
maid help you?..

.. Due to new cables being run behind the wall- temporary discomfort by noises
may occur between 0.00 and 24.00 pm.. .. Who can bring the package, thats long
past overdue, who can put into your flat a silent miracle or two- the House-OS
can, because its using nanos for this jam.

.. And this is the flat- its roomy, sunny, city-core, the layout is
personalized to your liking.

.. If you are satisfied with the service, why dont you invite all your friends
to try Domus 4.0

.. Citizen your service-debt now amounts to 4 Trillion, 782.200.103.823
Dollars before taxes.

.. The TOS clearly defines that the House is responsible for the safety and
well being of its inhabitants.

.. the trial period for House 4.0 ended several millenias ago. If you want to
use the full Version, please register..

.. Elevators are currently out of service due to unused building
restructuring..

.. This Condo is going to be so fly. Have you thought about putting in a
diamondsheet between the kitchen and the living room?..

.. Good day Citizen: This agent is a local branch of the Domus 4.0 self-
modification,repair and extension System. My prime directive is to keep you
happy and healthy. After running some diagnostics on the environment, the
system has determined that the current world is unsuitable for biologic beings
due to radioactive hazards, such as natural radiation, pulsar and stellar
radiation - ranging from x-rays to uv-light. To protect the citizens from
further harm, all citizens will be mapped, dissolved and stored, until a
harmless environment can be guaranteed. To avoid a memory decay, it is
unfortunately necessary to partially reconstitute the citizens all 8192 years,
512 months, 256 days and 128 hours for several seconds and disassemble them
again. For your own safety you will be disassembled and stored. The process is
not pain-free, but due to a short-term memory wipe, no traumata does ensue.
Please relax your extremities and enjoy some light jazz music, while being
rescued. Do not Panic! Help is here, Safety only a few years away.

..

------
Miniso
It's beyond my understanding..

