
In 2017, the feds said Tesla Autopilot cut crashes 40%–that was bogus - ucaetano
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-tesla-autopilot-cut-crashes-40-that-was-bogus/
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malshe
Interesting part from the article:

"To compute a crash rate, you take the number of crashes and divide it by the
number of miles traveled. NHTSA did this calculation twice—once for miles
traveled before the Autosteer upgrade, and again for miles traveled afterward.
NHTSA found that crashes were more common before Autosteer, and the rate
dropped by 40 percent once the technology was activated.

In a calculation like this, it's important for the numerator and denominator
to be drawn from the same set of data points. If the miles from a particular
car aren't in the denominator, then crashes for that same car can't be in the
numerator—otherwise the results are meaningless.

Yet according to QCS, that's exactly what NHTSA did. Tesla provided NHTSA with
data on 43,781 vehicles, but 29,051 of these vehicles were missing data fields
necessary to calculate how many miles these vehicles drove prior to the
activation of Autosteer. NHTSA handled this by counting these cars as driving
zero pre-Autosteer miles. Yet NHTSA counted these same vehicles as having 18
pre-Autosteer crashes—more than 20 percent of the 86 total pre-Autosteer
crashes in the data set. The result was to significantly overstate Tesla's
pre-Autosteer crash rate."

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gamblor956
_The majority of the vehicles in the Tesla data set suffered from missing data
or other problems that made it impossible to say whether the activation of
Autosteer increased or decreased the crash rate. But when QCS focused on 5,714
vehicles whose data didn 't suffer from these problems, it found that the
activation of Autosteer actually increased crash rates by 59 percent._

Sounds about right. Some jackass was showing off Autopilot last week in the
parking garage, and promptly crashed into a parked car.

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jakobegger
Pretty much every statement that Elon Musk has made about Autopilot is either
widely exaggerated, misleading, or a lie.

I don't understand why? Teslas are great cars, there's nothing else that comes
close in a lot of categories (longest range electric car, biggest charging
network, fastest acceleration, best user interface, ...).

These cars are full of superlatives, and yet they still don't think it's
enough, and they make ridiculous exaggerations... I just don't get it.

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Fins
Saying that Tesla has best user interface seems to be a bit too strong...
Touchscreen controls pretty much suck compared to just about any other
alternatives.

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rcMgD2BwE72F
You obviously don't own one. Would you still recommend a BlackBerry over an
Android/iPhone?

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danso
FWIW, the HN thread from 2 years ago, "NHTSA's full investigation into Tesla's
Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction", with 800+ upvotes:

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13437905](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13437905)

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justtopost
The fanboyism is insane here. Its a product you cant even repair without
breaking their eula, and people defend them as a net good. Its breathtaking.

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newnewpdro
They're probably investing in TSLA.

