
As France reopens, just 4.4% of population infected by coronavirus - pseudolus
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-france-reopens-population-infected-coronaviruswell.html
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iamthemonster
This article is based on a false premise it makes very early: "[scientists]
note that in the absence of a vaccine, the only way out of the pandemic is
through herd immunity".

No, scientists do not note that. The clear consensus is that you reduce the
number of cases down to the capacity of your contact tracing capability and
you use quarantine to shut down local outbreaks. China, South Korea,
Australia... what do you think they are doing?

Letting the virus go wild among the population to establish "herd immunity" is
nobody's idea of a good time. Are 70% of people under the age of 50? Is it ok
to kill 0.2% of the country? Even if you don't die, what is it like to have
Covid? Are you even immune after having it? Nobody is seriously considering
letting the virus loose.

Western Australia currently has nobody in hospital with Covid, and
restrictions are significantly easing on Monday. Their rate of immunity is
basically zero and they seem to be doing just fine.

~~~
user_50123890
^ herd immunity is a 19th century solution to a pandemic.

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tinus_hn
So the message is that the lockdown is a failure, the only way it could help
if it is maintained until there is a vaccine.

Good luck with that!

~~~
mrpopo
That's the message you are reading. The lockdown brought precious times for
supply chains to start relocating, for cosmetic industries to start producing
hydro-alcoholic gel, for hospitals to enter crisis mode without the staff
burning out too fast, for legislators to discuss emergency measures, etc.

All these things helped France prepare for the lockdown measures lifting, and
most likely saved lives.

No country except Sweden is setting a goal of reaching herd immunity. Reaching
herd immunity is a failure in itself, it means a good fraction of the
population will die (whether the hospitals are overloaded or not).

~~~
z_open
Herd immunity is absolutely not a failure. The point is to have young healthy
people get the virus who will neither die, nor require hospitalization. Once
this population has substantial immunity, risk drops drastically for the at
risk people.

~~~
mrpopo
> The point is to have young healthy people get the virus who will neither
> die, nor require hospitalization.

This is a novel virus that is not entirely understood yet. Maybe the majority
of these young healthy people would not die (only 0.2%, and I wish you won't
be one of them), but they might get serious complications that will accompany
them for the rest of their lives. Maybe they will be more subject to strokes,
lung failures, etc. later in life. Maybe the virus won't kill them now but
reduce their life expectancy by 10 years. How does that sound?

~~~
z_open
> How does that sound?

It sounds hypothetical. You said herd immunity involves a good fraction of the
population dying which you don't know. Serious complications for the non-risk
population is neither known nor expected.

~~~
mrpopo
> You said herd immunity involves a good fraction of the population dying
> which you don't know

It's well-known by now that even the low-risk population (<50 age group) still
has a 0.x% risk of dying directly from covid. It's insane that people are
still minimising this.

> Serious complications for the non-risk population is neither known nor
> expected.

1) it's "low-risk". "No-risk" is for the 0-20 age group, and they are not
enough to provide herd immunity.

2) here is one known and documented complication for young people affected
with covid.

Doctors Link COVID-19 To Potentially Deadly Blood Clots And Strokes
[https://www.npr.org/sections/health-
shots/2020/04/29/8479170...](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-
shots/2020/04/29/847917017/doctors-link-covid-19-to-potentially-deadly-blood-
clots-and-strokes)

There is not enough data yet to infer on long-term complications yet. But
doctors are definitely monitoring this.

~~~
s1artibartfast
for what it is worth, I believe it is a 0.0X% chance of dying for < 50\.
Alternatively put, x/10,000.

[https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/12/scie...](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/12/science.abc3517)

