
Tesla Is Slowly Pushing Germany into Recession - ykm
https://www.ccn.com/tesla-is-slowly-pushing-germany-into-recession/
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aazaa
> Problem is, electric cars don’t require the same workforce to build. As
> Reuters writes, ‘electric cars provide less assembly work than combustion
> engine vehicles.’

This may be the most interesting factor of all, but the article doesn't cite
much in the way of support.

AFAICT, the electrical system on a Tesla is an entirely new level of
complexity, but the rest of the hardware is vastly simplified. No engine. No
fuel system. No emissions system or multi-state/country-specific
modifications. The battery placement gives the car a low center of gravity,
which simplifies safety engineering.

If so, then it's far from clear how German car makers survive this. They'll
need to not only retool factories built a great cost (often, for diesel, which
is now almost certainly dead), but will need workers with some very different
skillsets.

This seems more like a problem for any country with an established auto
industry. It's a great opportunity for countries without one.

~~~
PHGamer
electric wont kill diesel as towing still kills the battery fast. once
electrics can tow long distances then I will worry for the tech. (in consumer
of course disel is dead and in some states yes, electric is better . ie
southern cali and if your rich enough to have solar panels )

~~~
sunstone
Ok, you _might_ have a five year window max for that to remain a valid point;
batteries continue to improve year by year.

~~~
Arbalest
Even if it is 15, that's still not long enough for many regulatory
environments to respond effectively.

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spurdoman77
"The Tesla Model 3 is outselling every major German rival in US sales and in
Europe. Source: CleanTechnica"

The article is written by a tesla shill, who also pulls out facts out of his
ass. In the US this is true as per the graph, but in europe while model 3 is
selling well it is not the best selling, at least yet.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Non-CleanTechnica posts.

[https://insideevs.com/news/395418/december-tesla-
model-3-sal...](https://insideevs.com/news/395418/december-tesla-
model-3-sales-europe/) (Tesla Model 3 Was #3 Best Selling Car In Europe In
December)

[https://insideevs.com/news/400134/tesla-model-3-demand-
europ...](https://insideevs.com/news/400134/tesla-model-3-demand-europe-high/)
(Tesla Model 3 In Europe Is Mostly 'Sold Out For The Quarter')

Tesla is supply constrained, every Model 3 built is being sold.

~~~
Fjolsvith
I.e. If they could build them faster they would likely be the best selling.

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abc_lisper
Germany is not just about cars. They make lot of machinery for various
industries. While it is reasonable to assume that German auto industry is
under pressure, it is a stretch to say Tesla caused it. While the YoY revenues
for MB/BMW may be down, they are not too bad, they are at 2013-2014 level. Not
to say about all the commercial vehicles BMW and VW sell, like vans, suvs and
buses. This article is concentrating on small sliver of economy, and applying
to all of it.

~~~
Arbalest
Perhaps. Simply having watched "Who killed the electric car" it was clear that
it was already heading in that direction, even if it was snubbed at that time.
Tesla was the agent in making electric cars cool though. It's true from a
wider perspective that Tesla is a replaceable part of that timeline and
perhaps inevitable, but the fact remains that it was Tesla who got the
mindshare that has moved this forward.

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Barrin92
This is a very sweeping statement about the German economy that I find hard to
comprehend. The global car market in 2019 was 80 million vehicles sold. 1
million of which were electric cars. 300k of which were Teslas.

The automotive industry in Germany constitutes about 5% of the German GDP. Now
losing a tiny fraction of that market to Tesla is not going to push the
country into a recession, and it's not even going to bother the carmakers much
in the short term.

the EV question for Germany is going to be an issue 10-15 years down the line,
not now, and the reason for sluggish economic growth are more broadly related
to the contraction in international trade due to the trade tensions between
Europe, the US and China which has not just hit the German car market, but the
entire industrial sector.

~~~
vardump
> the EV question for Germany is going to be an issue 10-15 years down the
> line, not now,

The EV question is going to occur the moment consumer sentiment turns into
considering ICE vehicles a risky purchase. Like for fear of resale value or
high fossil fuel taxes.

Or simply because equivalent EV purchase price becomes lower than ICE vehicle.

Societal tipping point can occur _long_ before EVs become dominant. If I had
to guess, I'd say it'll occur before 2025. Eventually, people will be worried
about availability of gas stations.

~~~
Barrin92
Current prediction is that by 2040 EV will be about 20% of the global market
share while total number of cars will go from about 1 billion now to 2 billion
then. So there's plenty of room to grow for conventional engines.

Mind you the large car manufacturers don't make the lion share of their income
in Norway or Sweden where environmentally conscious wealthy people buy Teslas.
The lions share of the future car market is the developing world.

~~~
natch
One word for the people making these conservative predictions: Test drive.

OK, two words.

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raarts
I think a more likely reason is the absurdly high energy prices in Germany
(for example double the price of France) which affects all industries and
having been rising sharply the last 15 years.

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Sohcahtoa82
A better headline:

German car manufacturers failed to adapt to changing market demands and Tesla
is eating their lunch.

