
Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities - juokaz
https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-plans-to-split-hq2-evenly-between-two-cities-1541446552
======
excalibur
For some reason archive.is has four versions of this article stored, all with
the paywall intact.

This works [https://outline.com/pvJPEz](https://outline.com/pvJPEz)

~~~
tomphoolery
This was broken when I had content blocking on, turning it off did the
trick...

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dmode
Amazon is playing cities like chump. I had a sense in the beginning of this
process that Amazon doesn’t really want to build a HQ2. They just want to open
another office. Most large tech companies have large campuses across multiple
cities. This exercise is no different than that. But Bezos branded it HQ2 to
maximize handout. I also predict that they will end up hiring far less than
the 25k projected. There is a recession coming in the near future, which could
result in Amazon looking for cheaper developers globally.

~~~
standerman
"There is a recession coming in the near future, which could result in Amazon
looking for cheaper developers globally." It's dangerous to post speculative
things with such certainty. The future is never guaranteed.

~~~
rburhum
I am just going to leave you with this image here that shows the SP&500 since
1928: [https://imgur.com/a/JCMbIvU](https://imgur.com/a/JCMbIvU)

We have had 10 years of growth since the last recession (every gray line is a
recession).

If you take into account the market corrections that we have seen this year as
a sign, most people in finance will agree that there will be a correction in
the next three years. It is far from speculation.

The charts was generated from here:
[https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-
dat...](https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data)

Edit: FYI I did not imply that market corrections == recession. The reason I
put the image is to show that there hasn't been a recession in 10 years and
that we are due for one. We have had a few market corrections this year, but
no recession _yet_.

~~~
zjaffee
Market corrections and recessions aren't the same thing, the chart you posted
clearly shows Black Monday as not being a result of a recession. A rebalancing
of the stock market at large doesn't necessarily result in mass unemployment,
followed by mass foreclosure and so on.

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RubenSandwich
Ruth Graham, a writer for Slate, commented on this this morning[0]:

"

A sword was brought & Bezos said “Cut HQ2 in half. Each of you can have part
of it.”

“Please don’t split HQ2,” the true host city screamed.

“Go ahead, cut it in half," the other city said.

Bezos pointed to the first city. “This is the real host. Put the headquarters
here.”

"

It makes me wonder if this is another negotiation tatic by Amazon to get the
final city to shell out more incentives.

[0]
[https://twitter.com/publicroad/status/1059533656694362115](https://twitter.com/publicroad/status/1059533656694362115)

~~~
mcphage
> It makes me wonder if this is another negotiation tatic by Amazon to get the
> final city to shell out more incentives.

Alternately, Amazon has liked pitting cities against each other so much, that
they decided to keep doing it forever. "City A, we're looking to start a major
new project up. City B is willing to offer X, Y, and Z if we launch it in the
City B office, are you willing to beat that for us to open it in your office?"

~~~
hnmonkey
Agreed. It certainly seems like this is the case and the end result would be
both cities lurching towards becoming massively under Amazon's powerful thumb
and dependent on it in the long run (think the Walmart method of dealing with
businesses but... slightly bigger).

------
dunpeal
The whole "HQ2" festival was dubious from the start, especially in light of
this announcement.

Other similar companies - e.g. practically all FAANGS - just have one large
HQ, and several smaller offices in various locations to tap into local talent.

How is Amazon exceptional such that it needs this special "HQ2" office?

This never made much sense for them... Except as a big PR fanfare to drum up
huge benefit packages from cities on their various long/short candidate lists.

So now they cut the prospective office sizes in half. Will the benefit
packages be cut in half? Probably not.

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thebradbain
I’m biased, but I’ve had a feeling in the beginning it was always going to be
Dallas in some capacity:

1\. DC area may have three potential cities, but Texas is the only other
region that has two cities being considered

2\. DFW airport is one of the US’s busiest airports, and American Airlines is
headquartered there, so you can get a direct flight to anywhere in the country
in 3 hours tops. Amazon already has multiple warehouses here and also ships
freight through DFW and other airports in the area.

3\. Public transit (Dallas has the largest light rail network south of DC),
continued investment, world class museums, and honestly a pretty hip city with
a lot of activity in the center, not unlike Seattle. Also lots of millennials
moving there for its low cost of living and ample jobs.

4\. You can’t beat Texas’ business environment — Bezos even praised it when he
spoke at a business conference at SMU earlier this summer.

5\. Establishing two offices will give Amazon influence in two places, and
covering Seattle (West Coast), DC/NoVa (East Coast), Texas (South) gives them
nationwide influence.

~~~
throwaway427
> Public transit, continued investment, world class museums, and honestly a
> pretty hip city with a lot of activity in the center, not unlike Seattle.
> Also lots of millennials moving there for its low cost of living and ample
> jobs.

Minus museums, this could be said of plenty of other cities that are in places
with less wacky politics. Museums don't mean a thing. Low cost of living as a
requirement means a relative low cost of living compared to the West Coast.

I'd prefer to see Denver as the location over Dallas. The State of Texas needs
a swift kick in the ass regarding their state politics, specifically the war
on women, and their continued absurd policies regarding weed. The last thing
they need more of is to be rewarded for unsustainable tax policies.

~~~
thebradbain
The writing is on the wall — Texas will turn blue sooner than later.

Dallas is a liberal stronghold in Texas, and in absolute numbers turns out
more for Democrats than any other city in the state, including Austin
(percentage-wise Austin wins by +5%, I believe). Unlike Austin, which is
gerrymandered in the state legislature, every single state/county/city
official in Dallas is a Democrat.

Dallas is also a gay rights stronghold, representing the only county and city
in Texas, again including Austin, with non-discrimination clauses in
employment and housing for LGBTQ+ individuals.

Furthermore— Texas is considering bi-partisan legislation to legalize weed.
Dallas has already decriminalized it, and the State, while backwards in other
regards, hasn’t indicated it will force Dallas to back down on that measure.
Dallas also has stricter gun laws than the state of Texas.

Texas has a long way to go, but I think if you would step in Dallas you would
learn to leave your preconceived notions of it at the door.

I believe an HQ2 would speed up Texas’ change.

~~~
chrisco255
Ft. Worth, right next door, is not though. I don't see this happening, by the
way. Abbott is up by 15-20 points in the polls this year. And Texas is just
different, culturally, than these other states.

You can have your LGBTQ anti-discrimination and TX still remain red, BTW.
They're not mutually exclusive.

~~~
thebradbain
Fort Worth is the largest non-Democratic city in all of the US, yes, but if
you also look at every election you can see it too is turning bluer and bluer.

Also, the government race is not a good indicator. Lupe Valdez has made
mistake after mistake in her campaign — I’m liberal, and even I wasn’t
enthusiastic about voting for her. She’s doing so bad that she’s polling less
than the percentage of registered Democrats there are in the state.

For change, look at the Beto polls — he’s not favored to win, but he’ll come
within 5 points. That’s huge considering Cruz previously won by +21.
Furthermore, in the 2016 election Texas was only +9 Trump — that’s less than
conventional swing states such as Ohio.

Hillary did better in Texas than any Democrat since Reagan. Also, Texas last
had a Blue governor in 1994. Texas hasn’t always been red — only for the past
two decades — and it won’t stay red forever.

~~~
thaumasiotes
> Texas last had a Blue governor in 1994. Texas hasn’t always been red — only
> for the past two decades — and it won’t stay red forever.

California last had a Republican governor in 2011, but people will look at you
funny if you try to cite that as evidence that California wasn't dyed-in-the-
wool Blue at the time.

~~~
thebradbain
That's a fair critique. I think my main point wasn't made clear by my comment:
all states – even those we consider as Blue as California or as Red as Texas –
won't necessarily stay their current color forever.

To discount any state as unchanging is doing a disservice to all US Citizens:
public opinion changes, demographics change, politics change, and people
change.

~~~
dragonwriter
Just to illustrate that point, California was a Republican presidential
stronghold up through 20 (EDIT: typo, 30) years ago; they won the state in
every Presidential election through that year except 1964 starting with 1952.

------
ProfessorLayton
I'm extremely curious what the cities who were working closely with Amazon
think of this development, as now it seems that they'll be getting half the
jobs for their concessions. Additionally, the reason cited for splitting their
new HQ is the lack of enough tech talent, which means that their concessions
may have been for naught if they didn't have enough talent for Amazon in the
first place.

~~~
jimjansen
I doubt that even spineless politicians would give up the same concessions for
half the jobs and investments.

~~~
jeffbax
See Foxconn

------
fipple
HQ2 was never going to be a true second HQ but now it’s not even going to be
close. Cities just fellated Amazon for a satellite office.

~~~
Kephael
The only HQ is where the CEO sits.

~~~
TomMarius
What if the CEO has a standing desk?

Just kidding. What about completely remote companies, or companies where the
CEO is remote?

~~~
why_only_15
How many companies exist where the CEO is remote? If you're being hired for
that important of a job, you're almost certainly willing to move.

~~~
TomMarius
I know some, but the CEO is always also the founder.

------
nextstep
I’d bet money on the two being Crystal City, VA and Denver.

The DC suburb makes sense for an East Coast hub, and it’s smart to be near the
capital for DoD contracts. And Denver is a nice, growing tech city with an
attractive lifestyle.

~~~
kevinconaway
Crystal City is a nightmare from a commuting perspective and an awful place to
live.

Its more or less a ghost town since BRAC moved out a bunch of agencies and
contractors a few years ago. This had the effect of hollowing out what little
independent retail / dining there was there as most of it catered to the
office lunch crowd.

From a commuting perspective, its right across the river from DC which makes
it very difficult to get to from a driving / bus perspective. Taking the metro
is somewhat better but would require a transfer for many people.

~~~
jandrese
On the other hand, having lots of available empty office space just ready to
go sounds like a bonus. Retail will move back in once there are customers to
serve.

~~~
blueatlas
And there is a large pool of young talent a couple of metro stops north in
Arlington.

------
oh-kumudo
This drama is getting ridiculous. HQ2-1, and HQ2-2? What does HQ even mean
then? Even if they are called HQ, it is hard for me to imagine they can
function as one.

~~~
mxuribe
Sure, some business have multiple "HQs"...in that they split where some of
their major divisions are "headquartered". For example, maybe the original HQ
in Seattle is where Jeff B. sits, but maybe the crystal city HQ (if that's one
of them) is where AWS - as a business/major division - is "headquartered",
etc. Oh, and i would venture a guess that they likely will name them something
like HQ1, HQ-East-1, HQ-West-1, HQ-South-1, etc. ;-)

~~~
philsnow
with certain AMZN HQ services[0] only available in HQ1 / HQ-NorthWest-1

[0] like AMZN GetPromoted or AMZN WorkOnTheProjectYouWant

~~~
mxuribe
My dayjob employer is currently kicking off a 150-year project to validate
whether the AMZN GetPromoted service is worthwhile to eventually implement
internally. But, alas, already there are project delays. ;-)

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the_reformation
All these kneejerk comments about this being phase 3 in Bezos' grand plan to
defraud America's wealthiest cities- I do not understand. No cities have
committed anything to Amazon and can volunteer to walk away or attempt to
renegotiate if they so wish. Not much of an grand master plan.

~~~
philistine
The crux of the issue is that every big metro center in North America gave
Amazon a list of incentives they were willing to provide. Next time Amazon
negotiates with any city for any development, it can mine this private
treasure trove of extremely potent information about how much each city is
willing to bend over.

Wouldn't you agree that knowledge is power?

------
filereaper
Can't speak for the other cities but there's been a steady expansion of Amazon
in Toronto.

I suspect in the end they'll keep expanding in a quiet and steady pace while
never officially declaring a "HQ2" at all whilst the cities feud over who gets
the title and keep handing out incentives.

~~~
johan_larson
You'd think the low salaries and easy immigration would have put TO over the
top.

~~~
filereaper
IIRC there was some concern that HQ2 should be on American soil or withstand
the backlash of the current political climate.

~~~
poulsbohemian
Big companies are funny animals in that they appear on the surface to make
short-term decisions to appease the market, but behind the scenes tend to plan
out a decade or more. A good fifteen or more years before Boeing moved their
HQ out of the Seattle area and moved significant production elsewhere, they
were putting out messages to suburban governments where they had smaller
plants to not count on them being around. I would bet Amazon or any other
company thinking of a move of this magnitude has a plan that stretches well
beyond 2020.

------
hnaccy
How do bookies decide if they need to payout or not in this case?

~~~
TheBiv
What happens when a material event occurs that vastly changes the outcome is
that they just return the money.

------
taurath
I was hoping for a significant cooling of the Seattle housing market with a
full fledged hq2, but it appears it will be seattle first for quite a while
I’d guess.

~~~
slm_HN
The Seattle housing market is already cooling faster than anywhere in the
country, and has been for a while (newspapers tend to be a few months behind
in this type of news):

[https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-
ho...](https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-home-sellers-
seeing-new-reality-are-lowering-list-prices-faster-than-anywhere-else/)

~~~
taurath
Its got a very high perch to cool down from. There's definitely a seasonal
element to the current slowdown - price drops are happening, but prices are
still up 5% YOY. I'm hoping for a correction or at least 0% for a little bit.

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partiallypro
Why stop there? Just scatter HQ2 into every city and municipality dumb enough
to give Amazon millions-billions in tax breaks and incentives.

~~~
rzzzt
GPS software will then guide you to the nearest HQ2 via anycast routing.

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ocdtrekkie
Another great example of why cities shouldn't be selling out their residents
to attract one of these large companies there. They'll never get their value
out of it. Here Amazon changes the game to half the benefits after most of the
discussions of incentives have been had.

Side by side with this story, it's hard to see why states and cities are still
willing to play ball: [https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/29/18027032/foxconn-
wiscons...](https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/29/18027032/foxconn-wisconsin-
plant-jobs-deal-subsidy-governor-scott-walker)

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kevin_b_er
So double the concessions?

~~~
WalterSear
He didn't become the world's richest shopkeeper by accident.

------
dpflan
The article mentions first that the move is motivated by recruiting tech
talent. Seattle is far-away in the eyes and minds of most Americans I would
bet. Splitting means they are probably going after northeast and south/east.

Check out this population density map from the US census:

>
> [https://www.census.gov/history/www/reference/maps/](https://www.census.gov/history/www/reference/maps/)

From the article:

"The driving force behind the decision to build two equal offices in addition
to the company’s headquarters in Seattle is recruiting enough tech talent,
according to the person familiar with the company’s plans. The move will also
ease potential issues with housing, transit and other areas where adding tens
of thousands of workers could cause problems."

------
johan_larson
Here are two scales, two buckets, and two knives. Whoever bleeds the most,
gets the HQ.

~~~
burlesona
Yep. You might enjoy this take on it:
[https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2018/2/6/in-the-
amazon-h...](https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2018/2/6/in-the-amazon-
hq2-contest-the-winner-might-actually-be-the-loser)

This thing already feels like a boondoggle and it hasn't even officially
happened.

------
kc10
Would it be HQ2 and HQ3? or HQ2.1 and HQ2.2? I hope they don't end up like a
hydra with 9 heads.

The whole HQ thing doesn't make any sense. It's just another office location.

~~~
cwkoss
If my experience with AWS has taught me anything, I'm sure someone will choose
a clear and unambiguous acronym.

~~~
kylek
My vote goes for "S3" (Seattle's Secondary Site, of course)

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dpeck
the Boston Atlanta Metropolitan Axis is clearly getting HQ2.

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ghobs91
My money's on DC area and NYC area. DC for the gov contracts, NYC for the
talent pool (Columbia, Cornell Tech, and NYU) and transit network.

~~~
lotsofpulp
NYTimes claims you could be right!

[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/technology/amazon-
second-...](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/technology/amazon-second-
headquarters-split.html)

~~~
ghobs91
haha would you look at that!

------
mcculley
I have been wondering if any of the cities that proposed will make their
proposals public once the final decision has been made. My own city, Orlando,
released only a redacted version of the proposal. How should cities and states
manage the tension between their duty to transparency and the competitive
advantage of keeping proposals secret?

------
xchaotic
Somewhere near DC is must to cater for DoD and other federal government
contracts

~~~
monocasa
Why? Most major defence contractors aren't HQed in or around DC.

------
donald123
So Amazon HQ2A and HQ2B?

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floatingatoll
This leak would be a terrific way to catch a leaker, if delivered to a single
individual under circumstances where all others present are aware it’s a test.

------
acjohnson55
I've still got Newark on the brain. Assuming one half of HQ2 is in NoVa,
Newark is a very easy train or flight away.

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bitxbit
I am pretty sure they decide to split into two and effectively double the
benefits (tax) they will receive.

------
sergiotapia
Hope it comes down here to Miami. Imagine the talent pool! Easy access to
south american engineers

~~~
whb07
There’s very little “talent” native to Miami. As far as S.A engineers that’s
also probably a tough one...I mean staffing a HQ with foreigners is a tough
sell, don’t you think?

If anything Miami is still alluring to those across the US for warm weather,
no income tax, and tanned guys/gals (or both?!). The Miami economy still is
dominated by tourism and real estate unfortunately!

~~~
goshx
No income tax?

------
SQL2219
The DC metro is as expensive as Seattle. Tough to recruit into those high cost
of living areas.

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sugarpile
Looks like the github wsjUnblock repo got nuked at some point and the most
recent version doesn't work on wsj anymore. Does anyone know if it's still
alive (under active development) anywhere? If not I'll probably start poking
around and see if I can get it working again.

~~~
phonon
You need to directly click on a twitter/FB WSJ shortlink while in incognito
mode.

------
insta_anon
Creating a bookmark with the following text will get you around the paywall:

    
    
      javascript:window.location.href='https://m.facebook.com/l.php?u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href);

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cauldron
Can't wait the battle for Amazon HQ3.

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ohsik
So where is the city for Amazon HQ2? :)

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codegoblins
I guess they couldn't get Garbagetown, Kansas to defund their public school
system enough for Jeff Bezos's liking.

