

How Reliable will the Falcon 9 be? - btilly
http://bentilly.blogspot.com/2012/10/how-reliable-will-falcon-9-be.html

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btilly
D'oh. I had to fix all of my numbers.

The bottom line is that if we a priori thought that all possible reliabilities
for the engine were equally likely, then based on current data we'd currently
estimate a 3.6% failure rate per launch. That's significantly worse than the
shuttle. However if there are a few more successful launches, then those
numbers will improve rapidly.

I leave updating the simple proof of concept script that I put up to handle
arbitrary numbers of launches and engine failures as an exercise for the
reader.

