
The Shadow Superpower - cs702
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/28/black_market_global_economy
======
solson
Meanwhile in the highly planned and regulated Swedish economy... they are
planning to end cash, a step which the government elites tout as progress and
sell as a safety measure. Looks like the underground will need to find an
alternative currency. Bitcoin?
[http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/economy/voice-of-
opposition...](http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/economy/voice-of-opposition-
grows-as-sweden-considers-going-cashless)

~~~
bilbo0s
Hmm...

Not really sure bitcoin could compete well in Systeme D. You are dealing with
a lot of people who believe in cash or precious metals. These bring trust in
Systeme D.

One thing the article doesn't mention is that the Somalis are actually making
a pretty big impact as proprietors of a sort of 'banking' system for these
kinds of transactions. If you give a Somali 'banker' ... say ... 2000 Euro in
Norway, you can count on your cousin in St. Paul, MN getting 2000 Euro from
one of the local Somalis. The same is true if you want money to go from Sao
Paolo to Capetown. Or Shanghai to Dubai, etc.

Their system is robust, extremely trustworthy, and most important, quiet. It
is DEEPLY lodged in shadow trans african trade, and rapidly growing in shadow
global trade. It will be hard to displace a system like that. Unless the
world's Governments decide to invade Somalia, which does seem to be the case
lately.

One place bitcoin might be useful is in large transactions. The Somalis don't
seem to be interested in facilitating these yet, and for obvious reasons,
merchants do not want to use cash. If bitcoin builds a reputation for trust on
large transactions, perhaps through the convenience of mobile phones it can
work its way down the food chain so to speak.

But... yeah ... right now there are a lot of Africans for instance, who trust
the Somali networks more than the banks in their own countries. Trust like
that is hard to earn...and very expensive to buy. It could happen for bitcoin
though if boosters put in the work.

~~~
solson
Agreed, but if there is no paper or coin cash like Sweden is proposing, how
would the "Somali Banker" get digital currency to a party in the jurisdiction
without paper currency? I assume it is all done in paper cash today. Barter
seems impractical.

~~~
bilbo0s
You might have noticed I used the example of inputting Euro into the Somali
system in Norway. The fact that Norway uses the Krone does not mean that Euro
are not readily available. Likewise, Sweden may switch to digital, but Euro
and dollars, and certainly silver and gold will be readily available. Doesn't
matter that a person gives the Somali CFA in Cameroon, Euro will come out in
Paris.

The Somalis are good with that sort of thing. You just tell them how much and
exactly who is supposed to get it. They can make it happen. What's crazy is
that they can even make it happen in war zones. Even in a place like Goma with
genocidal Hutus and lunatic Tutsis running around. I suspect it actually works
better in places like that because the corrupt generals need some way to get
their ill gotten gains out.

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oskarth
Single page view:
[http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/28/black_marke...](http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/28/black_market_global_economy?page=full)

EDIT: Nevermind my suggestion to post the single page view. It was my belief
that readability ought to be valued more than double-submission-prevention
mechanisms, but it seems like a lot of people disagree with that notion.

~~~
tokenadult
To the contrary, please post the canonical URL of any article,

<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3571353>

and let the user decide what page view or what display defaults to show. (On a
well designed website, the user's user agent will be autodetected, and the
default display will be a reasonable view that leads to options for single-
page or other special display formats.) That lets the Hacker News duplicate
submission detector do its best work. It is, of course, all right (but not
strictly necessary) to mention a link to another view of the article, as you
kindly did, in a comment.

------
peter_l_downs
Also described in this excellent wired article, which I think is a more
concise overview of the subject:

<http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/12/mf_neuwirth_qa/>

~~~
cs702
Thanks for that link. The Wired article is less in-depth and lacks links to
all the external research and data, but it's a good alternative for readers
who just want to grok the key points quickly.

------
rvkennedy
tl;dr: Having conducted an exhaustive study of the world's economic future, it
turns out that it conforms almost exactly to my libertarian worldview!

~~~
crusso
I definitely believe the "dr" part.

The article is just describing an economic ecosystem that is in play today. It
reads like someone's attempt to wrap his head around something new and
different that needs to be understood.

If this economy is as large and successful as it's claimed to be, then we
should be making an effort to understand it as well.

You'd need to be pretty heartless to decry it on face value when it does
something so basic in our modern world as provide electrical power for people
who have been denied it by their current economic system or government for one
reason or another.

If you have a reason to counter the facts in the story, by all means speak up.

~~~
stcredzero
_You'd need to be pretty heartless to decry it on face value when it does
something so basic in our modern world as provide electrical power for people_

Have you ever been at a large campground with widespread portable generator
use? There are >definite< externalities.

I would take steps to further lubricate commerce. Technology that can leapfrog
the build-out of infrastructure like roads is one possibility.

~~~
crusso
I don't understand your point.

No one is lubricating commerce for these people. Their current government and
economic system is failing them miserably.

What they've done to better the lives of themselves and those around them,
they've done for themselves in spite of their current government and its
forced economics.

These people aren't trading in drugs or slaves. They're doing something quite
remarkable and how they're doing it should be studied.

~~~
stcredzero
_No one is lubricating commerce for these people. Their current government and
economic system is failing them miserably._

Yes, so imagine if we came in with technical solutions that leapfrog their
failed government? For example, there's a program to replace mail service with
small parcel delivery by quadcopter drone. No roads during the rainy season?
No problem!

------
corford
It's a good read and instantly made me think of Bitcoin. "Bitcoin - The
currency for the System D generation"

~~~
cs702
Agree. An expert on e-money on crypto currencies just articulated exactly the
same point here: [http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/03/19/could-
bitc...](http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/03/19/could-bitcoin-
become-the-currency-of-system-d/)

~~~
corford
Thanks for the link! I think he's dead right (the last sentence says
everything).

~~~
cs702
I think there's a good chance he will be proven right over time. You may
appreciate this blog post too: [http://cs702.wordpress.com/2011/05/29/on-the-
potential-adopt...](http://cs702.wordpress.com/2011/05/29/on-the-potential-
adoption-and-price-appreciation-of-bitcoin-in-the-long-run/)

------
stcredzero
"Shadow Superpower" is perhaps misleading. To me, a Superpower can project
concerted military or economic power over an extended period of time, and has
considerable resistance to the tried and true tactics of "divide and conquer."

Then again, perhaps it's not. Is the US so resistant to "divide and conquer?"
Can we still project concerted military or economic power over an extended
period of time?

------
xccx
"Systeme D.", débrouillard, resourceful, ingenious, inventive, self-starting,
entrepreneurial, "l'economie de la débrouillardise." ingenuity economy, the
economy of improvisation, self-reliance, do-it-yourself, or DIY, economy of
skill, joy.

------
CountHackulus
Isn't this essentially the Star Trek economy? These people work to improve
themselves and their surroundings.

~~~
sunir
The exact opposite. They lack any financial security or a society that
protects then so they must hustle to survive.

In Star Trek they live in a society with abundance and so the state can
provide everything.

