

Wait, So 20 Phones On 4 Carriers Outsold 1 Phone On 1 Carrier? Shocking. - aresant
http://techcrunch.com/2010/08/02/iphone-android-sales/

======
Niten
Why do people always feel the need to point out that Android is supported by
multiple manufacturers whenever the issue of Android vs. iPhone market share
is mentioned, as though they think they've just dropped a bomb on the
conversation? Is this just some bizarre way of standing up for Apple's honor?

> But comparing iPhone sales to Android sales is comparing an apple to a
> bushel of oranges.

No it isn't. The real story is mobile OS market share trends, and how that
relates to third-party application development. From that perspective the
underlying hardware manufacturers and cellular carriers are largely
irrelevant.

However, this particular report doesn't take into account the iPhone 4 sales
numbers, so take it with a grain of salt...

~~~
Tamerlin
It's also a re-run -- this article only highlights exactly what lead the mac
into almost 15 years of marginal market share and an ad campaign based on poor
grammar. :)

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mattmaroon
Hilariously, I called this 2 years ago in response to a TechCrunch article
that said Android would fail.

<http://mattmaroon.com/2008/08/18/android-ftw/>

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JangoSteve
I think the more important point here is that mobile app developers are going
to want to get the most bang for their buck. If there are more Android phones
out there than iPhones, then the decision between preferred platforms swings
in favor of Android (disregarding questions of target-market, demographics,
ease of development, etc.). It doesn't matter if the OS is on 1 phone or 20
(ok, well sort of; it does make it more difficult to program for Android when
you have to account for multiple screen sizes and hardware capabilities).

~~~
Samuel_Michon
I think what matters most to developers is the number of customers who are
buying apps, and how much they are willing to spend. Right now, the ratio
free/paid apps in the Android Marketplace is a lot higher than in the App
Store. There is one way to pay for paid apps in the Marketplace, and that's
through the tedious Google Checkout. Quite a contrast with the iTunes Store,
which already has 100 million credit cards on file.

Even when there are more Android devices than there are iOS devices (which
will take a little while, there are 100 million iDevices out there), I doubt
Android will be more profitable for developers than iOS (not even counting the
inroads Apple is making with iAds). I think Android will have to outnumber
iDevices by a factor 2 or 3 before that happens.

~~~
megablast
Someone who gets it.

On top of all that, Google are only allowing a few countries to even sell apps
on the store, no Australia yet. And despite all the calls for it to get
started, we have not heard any word on when this will happen.

I think that with the average person getting into Android devices, they are
going to start to buy more and more apps, but we have not heard for google
once again on how well the marketplace is doing, and how much it has changed.

Until those two things change, I will stick with Apple.

------
jsz0
Android is enjoying the same pent up demand for a modern SmartPhone that the
iPhone enjoyed for a couple of years. If you use Sprint, T-Mobile or Verizon
and want a phone with a good third party app library and a modern web browser
you don't really have any choices. It's Android or nothing. I suspect things
will continue to be volatile. WM7, BBOS6, new HP/Palm hardware, MeeGo, etc is
going to shake things up. Eventually the iPhone will be on other carriers in
the US. In 2 or 3 years things could look completely different.

------
ryanhuff
What I find interesting is the Samsung Galaxy S. Despite Android being a
"free" OS, which would supposedly enjoy a price advantage over the other OS
players (Symbian, Windows Mobile, etc), Android phones continue to be sold at
the same price-point (in the US) as the iPhone ($199).

But now, the Samsung Galaxy S is being sold at discount pricing. It can be
found for $99 (with contract), and even cheaper.

Over the long term, it will be interesting to see whether Android can support
the margins that device manufacturers need, or if competition among Android
device manufacturers will drive margins to near zero in a game of volume. I
wonder if the Samsung Galaxy S is the first example in a long term trend in
discounting with Android devices. So far, that does not seem to be the case,
as buzz for the Samsung "feels" mild, while carrier supported devices (Droid,
etc) are doing well.

Its certainly more complicated given the third player (carriers), and how they
subsidize device purchases, but if manufacturer margins do drop because of
significant competition, Apple may be one of the few device manufacturers to
thrive in this market.

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wyclif
_That is, until Apple gets on another carrier in the U.S. We all know it’s
going to happen, it’s just a question of when. Will it be early next year?
Next Summer?_

Next winter? Next solar eclipse? Next ice age? Seriously, did anybody who saw
this headline not know it was authored by Siegler?

~~~
Samuel_Michon
In contrast to the always fair and balanced Michael Arrington, you mean?

In most countries where the iPhone is sold, Apple already has contracts with
multiple carriers. Ofcourse, in most countries all carriers use GSM. Until LTE
is widespread in the US, Apple's only choice to offer iPhones on other
networks is to make one that has a CDMA radio. They may do so, or they could
wait it out for a year or two.

~~~
wyclif
Except I wasn't talking about other countries, I was talking about the U.S.
Nothing you say here invalidates my point. "They may do so" you say. _That_
was my point. We're still waiting for Apple to do something on another
carrier. In the U.S.

~~~
Samuel_Michon
I didn't set out to invalidate your post, just to offer an explanation as to
why, in the US, the iPhone isn't offered on any other network but AT&T, and
what would need to happen for that to change.

It sounded as if you're not convinced that the iPhone will _ever_ be available
on any network other than AT&T. Given that Verizon is by far the largest
carrier in the US, I can't imagine Apple not wanting a piece of that action.
But fact remains, Verizon is still on CDMA, and that tech has had its best
days.

As Steve Jobs said at D8:

 _"Apple is a company that has succeeded by choosing which horses to ride
technically, that have a future, that are headed up. Different pieces of
technology kind of go in cycles. They have their springs and summers and
autumns and then go to their graveyard of technology. We try to pick things
that are in their springs."_

[http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2010/06/01/d8-steve...](http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2010/06/01/d8-steve-
jobs-live/)

~~~
Tamerlin
At least Apple is consistent about choosing bad horses, eh? (G4, G5, AT&T)...

------
endtime
This article completely misses the point.

>The real interesting data would be if any single Android phone is outselling
the iPhone.

This isn't a handset war, it's a platform war. So, yes, Android outselling
iPhone is meaningful, even if Android is available on more carriers and have
more handsets. If that's the way to get the bigger user base, then Apple has a
suboptimal market strategy.

------
njharman
Shocking is the fact that darling, must have, hype phone from 1 (really
crappy) carrier is no longer outselling every smartphone under the sun.

That it's no longer "obvious" that if you build just for iPhone you've reached
90% of the market.

That if you're serious about having a mobile pressense, you have to build,
maintain, support etc. two rather different platforms.

------
sprout
That's the point of open source. Take what in the hands of a single company
would be a monoculture and turn it into a vibrant market with lots of choice.

Yes, of course it wins. It's a better development model.

~~~
TomOfTTB
Didn't work for Desktop Linux. Many fans of Linux on the desktop would tell
you its better than Windows yet it didn't come close to " winning"

Same here. Android owes its success to licensing far more than it does to
being Open Source

~~~
blahedo
"didn't"? More like "hasn't yet"---and while I don't necessarily predict that
desktop Linux will "win", whatever that might mean, it continues to gain
market share.

~~~
Lewisham
"hasn't yet" is the same thing people have said for the last decade.

~~~
blahedo
While this is perfectly true, Linux is A) not dead and B) gaining market
share, so it is simply disingenuous to claim that it has lost or that it
definitively didn't "win". To the extent that it's even meaningful to refer to
"winners" and "losers", the game's still on.

------
NathanKP
I find it interesting that despite all the buzz about Android surpassing
iPhone in sales, the users of the iPhone is still much more loyal than the
Android users. A considerably higher percentage of Android users were
considering moving to iPhone or another platform, than were iPhone users.

~~~
darrenkopp
This means that while android has explosive growth, apple can sell it's new
phones to it's existing customers, which is OK, but let's look at RIM and
where they are heading.

~~~
Samuel_Michon
Customer loyalty is nice ofcourse, and Apple scores well in that department.
Of the iPhone owners who were asked, an extraordinary _89%_ indicated they'd
buy another iPhone.

What's more telling is that 29% of the Android phone owners said they did
_not_ want another Android phone, and 72% of those people said their next
phone would be an iPhone.

As for Blackberry, it's all downhill for RIM from here on out. Of all
Blackberry owners, only 42% answered that they'd buy another Blackberry, and
69% of those who wanted to switch would choose an iPhone.

[http://gigaom.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/smartphone-
switch....](http://gigaom.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/smartphone-switch.jpg)

------
Daishiman
The relevant issue in this article is that this will definitely alter the
mindshare aspect of the platforms.

~~~
Samuel_Michon
I doubt it. We're talking about trend info from a market research firm that
estimates that in _one quarter_ , the one preceding the launch of a widely
publicized new iPhone model, more customers opted for Android handsets.

And even if next quarter Android handset sales continue to be higher than
iPhone sales, iOS' installed base will still be higher than Android's, with
all the iPod touches and iPads out there. That's not to say that Android
devices won't ever outnumber iOS devices -- that day simply isn't here yet.

------
ndimopoulos
The question that comes to mind after reading the article is "Who cares?"

Nowadays - in my humble opinion - people purchase phones to satisfy a need
inclusive of the basic phone call one. Some users think that the X phone is
cool or easier to use than the other one. If say the iPhone is cooler than an
Android based one, then no article from Techcrunch is going to convince the
user to purchase one over the other.

Let's not forget that the people that do not follow stats and capabilities and
specifications and purchase a phone because it is cool are not going to read
Techcrunch therefore the article brings the "Who cares" question in my mind.

Concluding, don't we have better things to discuss than oh how the mighty
iPhone has been surpassed by the even mightier Android one?

~~~
megablast
Who cares?

Well, as an application developer I care.

As someone who runs a mobile company, do I need to start looking at android,
and even other OS?

~~~
rodh257
why? if you are an application developer you should care about market
statistics not what bloggers think of the phones.

