
The hidden lives of MySpacers - Why opinions from anybody but users rarely matter. - danw
http://bokardo.com/archives/the-hidden-lives-of-myspacers/
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timg
It is really frustrating how lazy bloggers/investors always are rationalizing
why great startups _should_ be doing bad, instead of figuring out what makes
these "bad" startups do so great.

Nice example.

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ecuzzillo
I don't think Myspace has any merit. I think it's doing well for the same
reason that hit songs are doing well: random network butterfly effects. That
experiment about showing people which songs were popular vs. not showing
them-- due to totally random noise, one song (or startup) will be a little
ahead, and then whoosh, it has all the listeners (or users). There's nothing
about Myspace itself that makes it more likely among a field of similar,
better-designed contenders to do well; it's just the random fluctuations of
the market that made it king.

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danw
_I don't think Myspace has any merit_

It doesnt matter if you don't think it has any merit, it's the 25+ million
unique users per month that matter. Myspace is a great site in that it allows
you to craft your profile into any look you want. This identity creation is
what teenage users want. Combined with the network effects and you have the
reasoning for myspaces success.

 _better-designed contenders_

There are a few better designed contenders such as BeBo and Mixi who are doing
very well outside of the US. I don't believe facebook counts as a competitor
since it's lack of customisability and requirement for users to 'conform' does
not appeal to the same users as myspace.

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ecuzzillo
You're missing the point. I'm saying that the reason for their success is not
their own merit, but this random butterfly effect described in the linked
study. It's a relevant discussion to have, since it indicates that there's a
limit on how much you can control your own destiny in a social startup.

~~~
Goladus
There is a butterfly effect, yes there is a limit on how much you can control
your own destiny in a startup. But it's not an insurmountable obstactle. It
means you can't just copy myspace exactly, improve it in a few minor ways, and
expect to win over all their users.

In terms of competition, you may not realize what your competitor is doing
that is stealing all your customers. From what I remember, the main competitor
to Myspace was LiveJournal, and the networking features of myspace were far
superior. Customized pages with photo albums and links to all the people you
know are a lot more intrinsically interesting than an article about taking
your cat to the vet. The other competitor I read about was friendster, which
had a head start in social networking but was beaten because musicians and
their fans used myspace. [0]

I remember the first time I saw myspace, all I really noticed was the music.
The random user profiles barely registered, although I remember thinking it
would be cool to have a band page with lots of fans attached.

[0] <http://emergic.org/collections/tech_talk_the_myspace_story.html>

