
Ask HN: Is it possible 2019-nCoV is already endemic? - keithwhor
Armchair virologist &#x2F; epidemiologist, studied viral biochem in college. Hoping somebody can direct my thinking here, and maybe tell me what I’m missing?<p>‪Is it possible that 2019-nCoV is already endemic and the outbreak in Wuhan just represents a particularly virulent strain?‬<p>‪The “ease of transmission”  — asymptomatic, across 12 floors of a building, etc — Occam’s razor might suggest it’s simply a previously unidentified mild pathogen and a recent mutation is wreaking more havoc in Wuhan than the typical presentation — which, under this hypothesis, would be very mild.<p>‪The facts as I understand them are that sick people we test for 2019-nCoV sometimes have it. But we only test people (right now) with connections to Wuhan.‬<p>‪Assuming we keep finding asymptomatic transmission cases pop up, we’re faced with two possibilities; this is the fastest-transmitting and most robust coronavirus we’ve ever seen OR people keep turning up infected because it’s already endemic in the global population.‬<p>‪If my assumptions are correct about how we’re testing for the virus right now there’s huge sampling bias, both hypotheses will produce identical results <i>unless</i> we start testing control groups in completely unrelated areas.‬<p>‪Is there something I’m missing? Can any real epidemiologists weigh in? I would think folks at the WHO &#x2F; CDC must already be thinking about this?
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tristanj
This article gives more info on the most probable source of the virus. In
2004, Chinese researchers discovered a bat cave with a virus 96% genetically
similar to the coronavirus spreading today.

> _“We found viruses in bats that could infect human cells in a lab,” he
> said._

> _The team drew samples from people who lived near the bat caves and found
> that three per cent of them had developed antibodies to the viruses —
> proving that the strains can and have infected humans in the past._

Responding to your question, it's very possible the virus is endemic to the
region & a particularly virulent strain is spreading.

[https://nationalpost.com/news/world/cave-full-of-bats-in-
chi...](https://nationalpost.com/news/world/cave-full-of-bats-in-china-
identified-as-source-of-virus-almost-identical-to-the-one-killing-hundreds-
today)

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teapot01
Australia has in some states added nCov-19 to the standard testing panel for
all respiratory illnesses, and we haven't seen a spike in detection so far.
I'd expect to see an increased detection rate if it was in-fact endemic.

