
Tesla delivered 83,500 vehicles in the third quarter, more than expected - jeffpalmer
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/02/tesla-third-quarter-auto-production.html
======
chollida1
\- accelerating China factory due to tariffs of about 40% into China, they
don't indicate what accelerating actually means

Numbers:

\- Q3 production 53,239, \- Bloomberg’s estimate: 53,457

\- North American deliveries of 55,840 rank the Model 3 among the 10 best-
selling sedans in the region--and the only one that's electric

\- pretty good news in the face of what other car companies are doing

\- GM sales are expected to fall 14%, after falling 13% in August.

\- Analyst estimates for Ford (-9%), Toyota (-6.5%), Honda (-4.1%)

~~~
wintercharm
Yeah, there's a clear shift coming in the automotive industry. The auto makers
who don't have plans for electrification right now are in big trouble.

Thankfully, the VW group will actually be okay - they've tasked Porsche's
engineers with electrification of all the companies owned by the group.

The Taycan will be built on the J1 platform (Porsche controlled/built).
Porsche is developing 3 different packages for other car makers: the SPE
(Sport platform electric) for Lamborghini, and then they’re developing a PPE
(Premium Platform Electric) for Audi and Mercedes, and finally, they’ll have
the MEB (modular electrification box) which is a kit for anyone else who wants
electric drivetrains (VW, others)

~~~
jackhack
And just for completeness, Porsche "only" sold 55,000 cars in 2017. Tesla
shipped 30%+ more automobiles in one quarter, yet there is debate about
whether Tesla is a viable company and no-one is predicting the imminent demise
of that tiny car company, Porsche.

Bias + old thinking dies hard, it seems.

~~~
neuronic
Did you just compare a subsidiary of Volkswagen to some singular Silicon
Valley startup in terms of production capability, available resources,
expertise and infrastructure?

Also, define Porsche:

"Porsche AG is headquartered in Stuttgart, and is owned by Volkswagen AG,
which is itself majority-owned by Porsche Automobil Holding SE." \-
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche)

I'm a bit skeptical whether Tesla will survive a behemoth like Volkswagen
shifting gear towards main focus on electric vehicles.

~~~
SEJeff
Tesla has a head start on serious automotive EV technology, and as a result,
has:
[https://patents.google.com/?assignee=Tesla+Inc](https://patents.google.com/?assignee=Tesla+Inc)

No matter what happens, anyone wanting to build serious EVs will at some point
be licensing patents, especially the stuff they do which really is cutting
edge around their battery packs.

~~~
threeseed
Head start is no guarantee of success.

History is full of examples of this to be the case. Has Apple ever had a head
start on any industry ?

~~~
SEJeff
My point is that they have a lot of patents around this tech in actual real
EVs. Other competitors would have to license it from Tesla.

~~~
lttlrck
Has Tesla reneged on the "open patents"?

[https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-
you](https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you)

~~~
SEJeff

        Tesla will not initiate patent lawsuits against anyone who, in good faith, wants to use our technology.
    

Define: Good Faith

------
iamleppert
Tesla has a product that people want, and, importantly appeals to the new
generation of prospective car owners in a way the other auto manufactures
can't come close to even hoping. Youth haven't really been interested in cars
in the same way and with the same level of excitement they once were for
awhile now until Tesla came along.

To put simply, they will eventually figure out their manufacturing and
economies of scale (they are already well on their way to doing so) and when
that happens it will be a dramatic rise and unseating of power. We've seen
time and time again market share and dominance means very little in the long
term and the ability to manufacture a car isn't an exclusive right to the
current incumbents.

~~~
ntsplnkv2
We'll see. It seems that this debate has quickly polarized.

The Model 3 is still wildly expensive. The ones being shipped now aren't
affordable cars. 35k really isn't affordable for a car either. It's firmly in
the luxury market until 35k models ship. Even then, it doesn't make financial
sense to buy a Tesla over another car without government incentives.

Charge time is a major issue and will be critical for Tesla to solve.

Durability and reliability for high miles remains to be seen. Batteries are
expensive to replace.

As for manufacturing, mechanically electric vehicles are far simpler. I highly
doubt there is much more to be gained from manufacturing improvements, and
most of the car already benefits from the already existing economy of scale on
hardware and metal forming. The issue is 1000% the battery. Everything with
Tesla hinges on that battery - making it cheaper, more reliable, longer
lasting. That's the hard part - because increasing range decreases efficiency
because of the size and weight of the battery.

I'm excited - I think with any changes that can disrupt a business a lot of
resistance will be faced. But I hope Tesla succeeds.

~~~
zaroth
The TCO of a Model 3 at a MSRP of $35k is comparable to what... a ICE car at
$25k? Maybe less. That's assuming all the cash incentives are long gone at
that point, and gas stays above $3.00. It's a bit uncharitable to call that
"wildly expensive" unless your context is a new grad buying their first ever
used car.

> _Durability and reliability for high miles remains to be seen. Batteries are
> expensive to replace._

Actually, we have very good data for longevity of the Model S batteries, and
it looks beyond great. [1] Reliability of drive train and suspension remains
to be seen for the 3 since it's so new, but the expectation is that
maintenance is significantly cheaper for an electric vehicle due to so much
reduced complexity.

> ... _I highly doubt there is much more to be gained from manufacturing
> improvements_...

Says almost everyone ever about whatever the current state of the technology
is they are currently discussing? Materials science is constantly improving,
and it would be shocking to me if they are making the 3 basically the same way
20 years from now as they do today.

> _Everything with Tesla hinges on that battery..._

And hasn't Tesla proven that they are able to consistently drive battery costs
down and density and reliability up? Tesla has hinted at $100/kWh costs by the
end of 2018. They are at forefront of battery production, and have
consistently pushed the envelope since the 900lb, 53kWh battery in the
Roadster which cost something like $600/kWh to produce. [2]

[1] - [https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-
dat...](https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-data/)

[2] - [https://www.tesla.com/blog/bit-about-
batteries](https://www.tesla.com/blog/bit-about-batteries)

------
sidcool
This is great news for Tesla. Despite the Elon's recent conduct, the company
is doing well. I hope they continue the trajectory.

------
melling
“53,239 Model 3 vehicles, which was in line with our guidance and almost
double the volume of Q2.”

~~~
jaclaz
The 13 weeks by 5,000 per week making 65,000 still seemingly stand:

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18094836](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18094836)

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18095198](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18095198)

~~~
jaclaz
Hmmm, queer the downvoting on a simple multiplication...

~~~
hwillis
No, not at all, because as the guy below you in your link said, the guidance
was 50,000-55,000 and "we expect an average of 5000 Model 3s per week" was a
random offhand comment by Musk. He's probably thinking of the operating rate
(ie average cars per day) and not the overall rate, since the operating rate
is the statistic that he'd actually be capturing. There were 63 work days in
Q3, and IIRC there were about 8 days of planned shutdowns, which would put the
rate right at 5000.

Countering your nitpick with another nitpick seems inadvisable, but like...
you're blatantly ignoring the actual company guidance to focus on a single
random remark that was still essentially right. That's just goofy.

------
kbutler
Isn't "in line with our guidance" the key phrase here? How often does Tesla
get to say that?

~~~
rcMgD2BwE72F
Who care about quarter to quarter guidance, except the investors and short
sellers? What actually matters is how Tesla executes compared to their long-
term plans. Despite all the delays and "failed" promises, they keep exceeding
their multi-year goals.

Just check this out:
[http://www.autonews.com/article/20140113/OEM/301139981/audac...](http://www.autonews.com/article/20140113/OEM/301139981/audacious-
growth-plans-will-stretch-tesla-beyond-its-comfort-zone) (or watch any JB
Straubel's keynote)

They're killing it. In fact, the naysayers just keep moving the goalpost.

~~~
Latteland
Next year (March 2019) they will show the model Y, the smaller SUV based on
the model 3 platform, but I doubt they'll start making them. The next year
after that is the roadster. It's their secret plan that has been out on the
web for years.

------
brisance
From their press release:

"We also want to thank all of our customers who volunteered to help us with
deliveries, and our new customers who are showing their faith in Tesla by
purchasing our products in such large numbers."

Isn't it illegal for a for-profit company like Tesla to make use of
"volunteers"/unpaid labor? There are only narrow exceptions e.g. interns for
school credit.

[https://webapps.dol.gov/elaws/whd/flsa/docs/volunteers.asp](https://webapps.dol.gov/elaws/whd/flsa/docs/volunteers.asp)

[https://www.nomoreunpaidlabor.com](https://www.nomoreunpaidlabor.com)

~~~
vinceguidry
I suspect Tesla is referring to customers driving out to pick up their Tesla
from the factory or distribution center rather than waiting for Tesla to ship
it to them. Something likely encouraged by long wait times.

~~~
bewaretheirs
Nope. Sounds like volunteers did new-customer orientation:

[http://www.thedrive.com/news/23779/tesla-accepts-
volunteers-...](http://www.thedrive.com/news/23779/tesla-accepts-volunteers-
as-model-3-deliveries-ramp-up)

Sounds like a face-to-face version of the unpaid peer-to-peer "support" you
get in some product support forums.

------
lykr0n
Impressive, but they are going to need to dramatically increase that number to
if they wish to compete when the big car companies wake up.

~~~
sbradford26
Sure it benefits Tesla to produce more cars to compete with the big auto
companies. But I do not believe that suddenly any of them will be able crank
out a cost competitive electric car with the same range in any large quantity.

Sure your existing car companies are better right now at physically building
the conventional parts of a car, but the most expensive part of an electric
car is the batteries. Tesla's partnership with Panasonic (Gigafactory) is
their true advantage over all the other manufacturers, since they have a
reliable source for large quantities of batteries. The rest of car companies
are fighting for supply from LG Chem.

~~~
dgritsko
Don't forget the Supercharger network; seems like that's another big part of
Tesla's first-mover advantage that any serious competitor will need to address
at some point if they want to "catch up".

~~~
derekp7
Couldn't the mainstream auto manufactures install chargers at each of their
dealers? It seems that for any major car brand, there are more dealerships
than there are Tesla chargers.

~~~
kbob
Would you enjoy spending several hours of your vacation hanging around auto
dealers' showrooms?

~~~
ntsplnkv2
How is Tesla any different?

My road trip to the beach would take 4 hours more in a Tesla than a ICE. That
time would be waiting at rest stops along the way...

