

Google+ will burst the tech bubble - dstein

We have seen the exact same scenario during the first tech bubble.  The tech darling of the time, Netscape, had it's head torn off by the 800lb gorilla (Microsoft) and that marked the beginning of the end of the DotCom bubble.<p>This time around the flagship startup, Facebook, now has a credible threat from Google.  The difference is Facebook isn't yet a publicly traded company.  And I have a funny feeling the artificially inflated valuation of Facebook is just as quickly deflating right now.  If Facebook's value starts declining before it goes public it could be trouble for just about every other startup that has not already gone public.
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mmaunder
Upvoted because this is a great debate!

I think the circumstances are different in this case. Many people I know don't
like Facebook or the idea of Facebook anymore, so Google may have a hard time
persuading people Social Networks are still the new-new thing. In the case of
Netscape, browser use was growing like crazy and still is 17 years later.

In a way Netscape helped tear it's own head off. There was the Netscape 6 nail
in the coffin. The team rewrote the entire product from scratch. It's been oft
quoted as an example of why not to do a rewrite. Facebook's engineering team
appears to be strong on the surface.

There is no network effect with browsers and social networks have the
strongest network effect of them all. So Google has to overcome that too.

Google does use second-mover advantage to great effect though, as MS has.
Imitating is fun when you're a monopoly with a great engineering team.
Companies they've taken ideas from:

Symbian

Nokia

Hotmail

Apple's App Store

iOS

MapQuest

Yahoo Finance

Altavista and all other search engines.

GoTo.com (first PPC ads)

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citricsquid
IMO Facebook is not in any great danger from Google plus. Smaller start ups
maybe, but Facebook has the not-tech-savvy market by the balls and google plus
certainly isn't going to take them away. My brother, sister and father all use
Facebook, none will be switching to google plus unless all their friends do,
their friends won't switch unless their friends do... the Myspace/Facebook
comparison doesn't work either, a large portion of Facebook users now didn't
ever use Myspace, it's not as if they've moved _away_. Myspace was popular in
the era where social networking was for teens and " _nerds_ ", Facebook rose
to popularity when social networking was for everyone, google plus can't just
waltz in and take all those users. Google plus is just another tech industry
circle jerk, it'll be a long time before it ever comes close to harming
Facebook (if it does). How many people are using google plus and _not_
Facebook? That's what matters most. Everyone I know who uses google plus
(which is a small group) is still using Facebook.

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troymc
It's not like you have to choose Facebook xor Google+. You can use both.

For me, it's looking like I'll use Facebook to keep up with old schoolmates
and relatives, and I'll use Google+ for keeping up with other circles (e.g.
photographers and tech reporters).

TV didn't kill radio.

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phyllotaxis
[Quote]TV didn't kill radio[\quote]

Nope, but the internet is. (i work in radio, BTW)

Can't happen soon enough, if you ask me.

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willheim
FB has but to do one thing to remain king of the heap and that is to maintain
focus. The more junk they add to the site, the more ads, games, stupid apps
(find out who's stalking you!) the uglier and more MySpace-like it becomes. FB
succeeded in large part because it refused to be everything to everyone and
become uglier. That said, the experience I get viewing my FB feed is
aesthetically less pleasing as the months go on.

G+ OTOH is the new, shiny, clean kid on the block and my feeds are still
pristine.

If FB continues on the path they are on the influential thought leaders who
hate clutter will completely leave for G+ and that will be the beginning of
the end of FB.

Would G clutter up G+ with junk? Not likely. They LOVE all that more detailed
info you're voluntarily giving them that they can then serve up tailored
(revenue-generating) ads on your Gmail, searches, partner sites, etc.

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totalc
Netscape's death throes began in 1998. The 90s tech bubble finally collapsed
in early 2000.

Assuming this year marks the beginning of Facebook's death throes and
extrapolating from recent history: Until 2013, let the (tech startup) good
times roll!

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az
Since gPlus has been integrated into the entire google experience, from gmail
to blogspot, I think they have a chance against fb, but it will take a while.

Second, they have to make gPlus extremely easy to use to ensure that people
will switch and stay with one product.

Third, gPlus has better video chat (multiple at a time I believe) than fb, so
they have to encourage this as often as possible to keep users engaged and
returning.

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pgathogo
I beg all of you to read this article by Douglas Rushkoff, it predicts the
demise of facebook cleanly. My opinion, time is up for facebook.

[http://edition.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/01/07/rushkoff.facebook....](http://edition.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/01/07/rushkoff.facebook.myspace/)

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neworbit
Arguably this drives up the values of everyone who is otherwise at Facebook's
mercy though. Zynga on Google+ and Facebook is less subject to Zuckerberg
"cutting off their air supply" - to repurpose a phrase from the 90s bubble.

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trungonnews
btw, Facebook Like button is way more popular than Google +1 button.

On my website, for every 1000 Facebook like button clicked, there is only one
Google +1 button clicked.

proof: <http://likehub.com/>

