

How to spot whodunnit: academics crack Agatha Christie's code - ingve
http://www.theguardian.com/books/2015/aug/02/academics-unlock-formula-agatha-christies-mysteries

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jawns
Now this is a mysterious affair!

The article notes that M=27 books were analyzed to create the "whodunnit"
formula, but N=83 books were published in her lifetime. So, does the formula
work for N, or only M?

If we employ our little gray cells, it should be possible for us to determine
just how accurate the formula is by running it against the novels that weren't
analyzed.

If I had to put my cards on the table, I'd guess that the formula is
overfitted.

~~~
jcl
For one, theta is parametrized on {Poirot, Marple}. According to the list on
Wikipedia, only about 45 of her novels featured those two detectives.

------
dmeeze
Or, to put it another way: no.

[http://www.badscience.net/2006/12/mediaslut-ideas-money-
corp...](http://www.badscience.net/2006/12/mediaslut-ideas-money-
corporatewhore/)

