
Elon Musk vs. the Trolls - JumpCrisscross
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-22/elon-musk-vs-the-trolls?cmpid=BBD112216_BIZ&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=
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nixos
His biggest (current) problem regarding SpaceX is that satellites aren't mass-
produced.

If it was, buying a spot on a Falcon or on a Delta would be simple:

TCOFalcon = cost of launch + self-insurance-markup.

TCODelta = cost of launch + self-insurance-markup.

Falcon costs $1233/lb

Delta IV costs $8694/lb.

To compare apples to apples, to launch 50,000 lbs (a full Falcon FT 50,000
lb), a Falcon would cost 61,650,000, and a Delta IV would cost 434,700,000).

A Delta IV failed once out of 33, and the Falcon 9 failed three out of 29.

Therefore, TotalCostOfLaunch = CostOfLaunch+costOfSatellite * failureRate.

For TCODelta = TCOFalcon

CostOfLaunchDelta+costOfSatellite _failureRateDelta =
CostOfLaunchFalcon+costOfSatellite_ failureRateFalcon.

Plugging in Numbers,

434,700,000+c * (1/33) = 61,650,000+c * 3/29

c/33-2 * c/28 = 61,650,000 - 434,700,000

c = 5,100,126,428

Any satellite worth less than five billion (!! That's an _insanely_ expensive
single mission) would be cheaper to launch on a Falcon, despite its failure
rate

The only problem is that you have to wait for a new satellite

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ethbro
I see it as somewhat of a catch-22, which I think is the point of dogfooding
the boosters with SpaceX's own launch demand.

Nobody builds commodity satellites because there's no cost efficient way to
launch them (microsats aside), and nobody tries to pioneer more cost efficient
but lower reliability launch systems because there's no proven demand.

Your reasoning shows the edge under current economics. But I think the real
money will be made once we get to "Well, I could build a second satellite for
lower unit cost and have two in orbit." Because when demand shifts to that,
suddenly anyone without a cost-efficient launch system to offer gets priced
out of that chunk of the market.

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cconcepts
It must be a vote of confidence to have such shrill and obviously poorly
informed voices campaigning against you.

If they had some depth to their arguments they would at least make you think
twice but such desperate tactics pretty much tell you that you're traveling in
the opposite direction to the entrenched interests, attention seekers and
outright weirdos.

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jaimex2
That or is a testament of the low IQ behind the oil industry.

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sharkjacobs
The last line of the article is a summary

> The bottom line: Elon Musk attracts a wide array of real and fake online
> antagonists criticizing his work on electric cars, rockets, and solar
> panels.

Is "the bottom line" a thing Bloomberg has started including with some
articles or is this a bizarre one off?

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faragon
Elon: just don't feed the trolls.

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zbyte64
How is he feeding the trolls?

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faragon
“People tell me I shouldn’t talk about the fake rockets because it makes me
sound crazy”

edit: that quote was not from Elon, I misread the post. Sorry.

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seanbright
That quote didn't come from Musk:

 _Leech, who continues to file Tesla complaints, also insists that SpaceX’s
success in landing rockets back on earth is a hoax, videos of the landings
notwithstanding. “People tell me I shouldn’t talk about the fake rockets,” he
says, “because it makes me sound crazy.”_

~~~
sosuke
In all honesty I saw the quote and thought it was Elon Musk until I finished
RTFA. Only then did I realize it was the person obsessed with Tesla.

