
The Early Stage Slump - dforrestwilson
http://avc.com/2017/12/the-early-stage-slump/
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ericand
The wise words at the end:

You can tell where there is too much money and too little money by looking at
valuations. When valuations are extended, that means there is too much money.
That was seed in 2014, growth in 2015/2016, and ICOs in 2017. The trick is to
get into these sectors before the money shows up and get out when it does. And
then get back in after it leaves. And not get burned along the way.

~~~
ericand
Or as Warren Buffett put it:

"...be fearful when others are greedy and... be greedy only when others are
fearful"

[https://www.investopedia.com/university/warren-buffett-
biogr...](https://www.investopedia.com/university/warren-buffett-
biography/warren-buffett-most-influential-quotes.asp)

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rokhayakebe
Or maybe more entrepreneurs are starting sustainable businesses and monetizing
earlier therefore not needing to raise money.

~~~
matte_black
No, it's definitely harder to raise seed money right now.

~~~
simonebrunozzi
It is harder today, compared to one year ago.

I also submitted an "ask" on HN yesterday, regarding valuation/cap in my seed
stage startup - I would be grateful if any of you could provide
comments/suggestions:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15858585](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15858585)

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CalChris
Although Wilson titles his piece _The Early Stage Slump_ , he correctly goes
on to say that this is _a return to normal_ , that _we believe 2012-16 was a
bubble in early-stage funding_.

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bluetwo
Perhaps a sign of uncertainty? There seem to be many risk factors right now:

\- A government that is close to shut-down

\- A president that could get indicted or fire the special prosecutor anytime,
either of which will cause rioting in the streets

\- A fed that seems on-target to raise rates this month, which will have many
ripples in the economy

\- A stock market that is standing on it's toes to justify the lofty prices of
the day

\- The possibility of nuclear war with North Korea

\- An enormous tax cut bill that is still being crafted whose impact is yet to
be understood

~~~
ericand
Despite all these the stock market is doing relatively well. In fact, the
potential tax cut and Trump administration have lifted stocks. There are
always a few concerns out there but I think most investors are feeling okay
about political environment.

