
AMD over $10 a share today, price last seen back in 2007 - martell
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AMD:US
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pastullo
Looks extremely overpriced due to lots of investor hoping to get similar gains
as the one from NVIDIA stocks.

Without starting a flame war, i personally think AMD is lagging way behind
NVIDIA, which lately has been releasing incredible products. They have been
expanding in both the gaming market as well as gained a strong foothold in
emerging B2B markets such as the automotive industry and virtual reality.

Sure both AMD and NVIDIA will keep growing but now they really feel
overpriced.

~~~
webaholic
I don't think AMD is that far behind Nvidia. They Fury series is on par with
the latest Nvidia products if they use the Vulkan API.

The upcoming Polaris is supposed to be using HBM2 which should give it a
boost.

~~~
jdietrich
AMD are in a death spiral.

In the gaming market, AMD have completely lost the high-end and are barely
managing to keep a foothold in the mid-range. The RX480 is just barely
competitive with the GTX 1060 in gaming, performing worse in DX11 and edging a
marginal (~5%) lead in DX12 and Vulkan. The R9 Fury has been all but abandoned
by card partners, because it's barely faster the GTX 1060 or the RX 480 while
costing 50% more.

None of that really matters, because AMD are absolutely nowhere in the GPGPU
market. The market for consumer video cards doesn't have much room to grow,
but there's exponential growth potential for GPGPU compute in server and
embedded applications. Nvidia are selling rackloads of premium-priced cards to
data centers and increasing quantities of chips to the automotive industry.
They're in a virtuous circle of economies of scale, with the video and GPGPU
markets supporting each other.

AMD have gained some market share in terms of unit volume, but they're in deep
trouble when it comes to margins. Nvidia can afford a price war in the mid-
range, because they've got a monopoly on the high-end. Nvidia could do to
Radeon what Intel did to Opteron.

I like AMD. I particularly like AMD's support for open standards (Freesync,
Vulkan etc), but I think that this is a desperation move. Polaris has been a
massive disappointment, at least in comparison with Pascal. Unless Zen turns
out to be _spectacular_ , AMD are in deep trouble.

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webaholic
Everyone is expecting Zen to perform well. AMD also has been hyping it up a
lot. I hope it doesn't turn out to be a pile driver kind-of architecture.
Intel needs competition to keep prices sane, which currently they are not.

~~~
theandrewbailey
AMD is going to have a live stream next Tuesday to show off Zen, but it's more
gaming oriented.

[https://www.amd.com/en-us/innovations/new-horizon](https://www.amd.com/en-
us/innovations/new-horizon)

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spikengineer
This is because of the rumors that Intel is going to cross license AMD GPU
patents for use in their integrated GPU's as the intel-nvidia gpu cross
license agreement is going to expire next year.

~~~
snotrockets
Wasn't their agreement long term, until patent expiry?
([http://investor.nvidia.com/secfiling.cfm?filingid=1193125-11...](http://investor.nvidia.com/secfiling.cfm?filingid=1193125-11-5134&cik=1045810))

Or am I missing something?

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johngalt
It all depends on Zen providing real competition to Skylake. I am skeptical.
Even if zen is a killer chip, it will land is a sparse environment. AMD needs
a win on CPU _and_ chipset.

Most likely outcome: Zen is decent but not enough to make a dent in intel. At
most it pushes Intel's prices down a little.

ARM is the real competitor to Intel not AMD.

~~~
martell
Unfortunately ARM was bought out so we can't buy shares in them any more.

With news of the windows x64 emulator for aarch64, 2017 should be a very
interesting year on the x86 arm battle for sure.

Might be worthwhile picking up qualcomm shares or stock in some other
companies that license from ARM.

~~~
johngalt
I expect ARM to be a threat more as a scorched earth commoditization manner.
It's not that ARM chip manufacturers will take over Intel's billions, but
instead they will deflate the CPU balloon by allowing cheap and ubiquitous
devices that have 'enough' CPU.

