

RWW web predictions for 2008: 335 days later, hardly anything comes true - jyothi
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=92588

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catone
Confusing, I clicked through on my RSS reader, and somehow landed on the
original version of that post being submitted to HN -- and accidentally left a
comment on that page. Anyway, now that I'm in the right place...

I think I did alright in that post. #3 came true (for the most part, though
none of the big boys are relying parties). #2 was sort of half right. Sort of.
And, #5 was a little bit right -- iPhone 3G has been one of the best-selling
phones of the year and mobile apps are finally a big story (big enough to get
mainstream television coverage, at least).

Now, quick... someone buy Tumblr.

~~~
jyothi
half right, little bit right, sort of.. :) But agreed yours is better than the
rest. But your predictions were also pretty broad. [On #3 - we all know OpenID
hasn't taken off. <http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=375011>]

I found dcurtis predictions then a lot better. Except for #7 which was a total
give away.

1\. Semantic web searching will not even dent Google.

2\. EVDO/UMTS/WiMAX will finally make the internet as ubiquitous as cellular
phone technology. 2008 is the year of connected portable devices. Kindle,
iPhone, and Dash are its origins.

3\. The iPhone will gain a huge chunk of the mobile device market, and after
the 3G version is introduced with a spiffy sdk, it will engulf Windows Mobile
like a bear eating an ant.

4\. This election will have the most informed voters in history due to the
ease of research through Wikipedia. (Though the actual voting will be just as
aimless.)

5\. OpenID-based login systems will grow in popularity.

6\. Michael Arrington will be punched repeatedly.

7\. Ron Paul Graham will be elected president

[<http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=92635>]

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fortes
I would love to see a site that tracks predictors' prediction records.

It seems that almost all predictors' (or maybe all of them) have a dismal
accuracy record. (Especially in the financial sector as we've seen this year)

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jsmcgd
That's why I don't play the stock markets (that and a lack of cash).

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swombat
Ouch!

