

I predicted the iPhone 4S in August, 2007 - rjurney
http://datasyndrome.com/post/19646944562/i-predicted-the-iphone-4s-in-august-2007

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jjcm
No, you predicted natural language personal assistants that were integrated
into your phone. Demos of those already existed in 2007, and natural language
assistants have been in the works since the late 80s. Here's a paper from 1993
that describes a lot of the Siri functionality that exists today:
<http://www.media.mit.edu/speech/people/lisa/interchi93.html>

Siri and the iPhone 4s is nothing new, Apple simply tied a lot of things
together that already existed and added a bit of shine and sparkle.

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rjurney
Well, actually I predicted that:

1) The iPhone would become the new dominant computing platform. 2) There would
be a dev kit for more tightly integrated applications. 3) A Siri equivalent
would be on the iPhone, possibly delivered by a startup or Apple itself. 4)
That this would be happening soon, in a subsequent version of the same device,
or I would build it myself.

While this isn't magic, it is a pretty good prediction, and a lot more
specific than what you just stated.

Finally, if this was all so obvious, why didn't anyone else predict it?

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tatsuke95
Have to say you were pretty close, but:

> _"1) The iPhone would become the new dominant computing platform."_

By what measure?

> _"why didn't anyone else predict it?"_

Absence of evidence =/= evidence of absence.

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rjurney
Now you proved that you didn't read the prediction. GOTO line 1 of the comment
and answer your own question.

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tensafefrogs
That's nothing. I predicted the iPhone in 2005 and even built a prototype.

<http://www.flickr.com/photos/tensafefrogs/49199489/>

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jspark
I love the first comment at over 6 years ago.

>yeah, exactly, why the hell would you want an itunes phone!? silly apple,
jacks are for pods.

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Volpe
Actually Apple predicted this when they released the knowledge navigator
video[1] in 1987

[1]<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGYFEI6uLy0>

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melling
All this was predicted a couple of decades ago. There is a natural progression
here. Sometime in this decade, you'll slide a keyboard and mouse next to your
phone and it will be your desktop computer. Hopefully, the video to the
monitor is wireless too.

The real trick is to figure out how to get it all sooner.

~~~
rjurney
You're right. I read history. But still, it was cool that as soon as the
iPhone was out, I knew they had too. And that they would deliver.

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shaggyfrog
This is as predictive as Darren Brown showing people how to win the lottery. A
billion anonymous Internet denizens typing on a billion keyboards, and so on.

Any real legitimacy in this realm is only derived fron being a consistent
predictor over a long period of time.

~~~
rjurney
I do pretty well with predicting Amazon Web Services and data stuff, a couple
years out, as well as bottlenecks.

~~~
shaggyfrog
Filed under "for what it's worth" in the "random HN user" folder.

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alexobenauer
It sounds like you've got some serious Futuristic
(<http://gmj.gallup.com/content/673/futuristic.aspx>) in you. Harness the crap
out of that strength.

~~~
rjurney
Thanks :) That is a really great link, reading it now.

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koeselitz
"The step after that will be glasses which will coordinate with GPS and cell
location to overlay 3D imagery on the street, in malls, etc..."

Is that a prediction of the forthcoming Google Glasses there, too? ;)

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rjurney
Yes, and the Apple ones after those.

