
What Percentage of Your Worries Come True? - rspivak
http://www.jamesaltucher.com/2016/08/percentage-worries-come-true/
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johansch
99% of the things I predict will not come true, both good and bad.

[Citation needed]

~~~
coldtea
No, it's not really needed at all.

First, it's a casual turn of phrase -- he means "most of them". Is the art of
the conversation completely lost?

Second, he speaks of his own personal experience, so there are no citations.
Unless some team of statisticians studied him, he is the utmost authority on
the matter (of his own life), and others can just take his claim or leave it.
What they won't get is a citation -- or rather, he just gave you the citation,
his own.

A lot of people have forgotten to think independently -- without Cliff's Notes
and citations to give them pre-digested knowledge.

Heck, most papers, even in hard sciences, have been found in meta-studies to
be worse than 50% right and not reproducible either -- so unless someone plans
to reproduce and further study a paper on their own to verify the results,
having a citation is almost the same as flipping a coin to decide on the
matter, as far as the truth of the subject is concerned.

