
Waymo's Self-Driving Cars Are Near: Meet a Teen Who Rides One Every Day - Fricken
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-07-31/inside-the-life-of-waymo-s-driverless-test-family
======
pnloyd
This is a super interesting article. Here are some interesting bits.

\- Miles driven per needed human intervention 2017, Waymo: ~5700; GM: ~1300;
Nissan: ~250, everyone else sucks at around 100.

\- Tesla is not talked about at all, surprising considering Elon is constantly
saying it's around the corner.

\- Waymo has an Uber / Lyft esque app that the customers testing it's pilot
program are using.

\- Waymo's showing (not charging) prices similar to Lyft and Uber
($1.70/mile). An analyst thinks without paid drivers they could go as low as
70¢/mile, and only 35¢/mile by 2020.

\- Waymo is only testing is places with perfect weather.

\- Waymo plans on launching their first location for a ride hailing service by
the end of 2018.

~~~
tintor
"Miles driven per needed human intervention ..."

Driving in an urban environment is almost nothing like driving in the suburbs.

These numbers not comparable for many reasons: \- GM Cruise drives in high
density San Francisco (city roads), while Waymo drives in low density Mountain
View / Phoenix (incl. highways). [1] \- GM Cruise is not optimizing to reduce
driver interventions, as that can actually decrease safety (ie. drivers
delaying the intervention)

I work at GM Cruise.

[1] [https://medium.com/kylevogt/why-testing-self-driving-cars-
in...](https://medium.com/kylevogt/why-testing-self-driving-cars-in-sf-is-
challenging-but-necessary-77dbe8345927)

~~~
cromwellian
IF you rely on drivers being aware and able to intervene at any time, then you
are creating a dangerous situation. Human beings can’t re engage and obtain
situational awareness in emergencies.

~~~
trhway
that seems to be the situation with Uber killing that woman. If i remember
correctly they said that the emergency braking was disabled and they hoped on
the driver taking over (and the driver was probably asleep or something like
this as the woman had been for several seconds crossing those 2 lanes while
being highlighted by the car's headlights - the video that Uber published and
which let them off so easy obviously comes from a low sensitivity configured
camera and doesn't correctly reflect the normal sensitivity of human eyes and
what humans see in car headlight's field)

~~~
charleslmunger
The driver was actually watching "The Voice" on their phone.

------
seancoleman
My sister, 29, just got approved for the Waymo program in Phoenix. She has
epilepsy and hasn’t driven in 10 years since she had a seizure while driving
on the freeway and crashed. Miraculously she had no serious injuries.

We sarcastically joke about how Silicon Valley is making the world a better
place, oftentimes for privledged individuals but Waymo is completely changing
her life.

~~~
ageek123
New tech almost always starts out being available only to privileged
individuals but then becomes commoditized and available to everyone.

~~~
michaelt
If the new tech is a robot that cleans your toilet, costs can come down until
nobody ever has to manually clean a toilet again.

If the new tech is an on-demand market that hires a person to clean your
toilet, the amount of manual toilet cleaning in the world is unchanged :)

~~~
JulianMorrison
Instead of working for a unionized cleaning company with a minimum wage, you
too can be your own employer in the new app economy of toilet cleaning to
order and be paid less, expected to buy your own equipment, and denied sick
pay and holidays. But still subject to sacking if you don't put in 12-hour
days, or get a sub-four-star review.

------
Animats
Well, Waymo is doing it right, and everybody else is nowhere.

The next big jump will be when the next-generation LIDARs come out. All solid
state, and much cheaper. Industry analysts say 2020 for that.[1] They can be
built now, but nobody is prepared to order enough of them yet. Continental,
the big European auto parts company, is probably in the lead. (Quanergy keeps
announcing, but try to order what they announced in 2016.)

[1] [https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-and-china-
in...](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-and-china-in-vehicle-
lidar-industry-report-2017-2022-300676717.html)

~~~
dev_dull
The hardware will surely be commoditized... so the big differentiator seems to
be software. Software is one thing that Google surely does well.

~~~
Animats
Advanced LIDAR requires some less-used semiconductor fab technologies, like
indium gallium arsenide. So you can't just send an order into a commercial
CMOS fab like TMSC. Continental bought Advanced Scientific Concepts, which had
semiconductor physics PhDs figuring out how to do this. The devices work fine,
but early models were for DoD and space applications (the Dragon spacecraft
has one), built by hand, and priced accordingly.

Once there's a market for a few million a year, the price will come way down.

~~~
RealityVoid
I've seen the Conti ASC promos but they haven't posted the range on the solid
state lidar's. I was veeery excited about the tech, but from what I understand
it's very hard directing the laser of a high enough intensity to implement
this in a usefull way.

~~~
Animats
About 200m in the older ASC models.[1] There's a tradeoff between field of
view and range, depending on lens option. It's likely that a vehicle would
have a pair of forward looking units, a narrow beam long range one and a wide
beam short range unit.

Advanced Scientific Concepts has been making good flash LIDAR units for years,
price point around $100K. Continental acquired ASC and their team, and is
transitioning this from a handmade product made by PhDs in Santa Monica, CA
into a volume product made like an German auto part.

I saw the original optical bench prototype back in 2003 when we were preparing
for the original DARPA Grand Challenge. They aimed it out a garage door into a
sunlit parking lot and took 3D images. But it wasn't portable back then, so we
couldn't use it.

[1]
[http://www.advancedscientificconcepts.com/products/overview....](http://www.advancedscientificconcepts.com/products/overview.html)

~~~
RealityVoid
According to Wikipedia, Velodyne radars have a range of about 120m. If ASC
managed to get 200M that is hella impressive. I did hear that their tech has
some gotcha's keeping it from series production but it's not really clear to
me what is _really_ happening. I do think if they manage to launch this at an
acceptable price range it's going to be a big thing.

------
Tiktaalik
This is why cities are gonna have to regulate the hell out of autonomous
vehicles to reduce congestion.

The induced demand from affordable autonomous cars is going to be incredible,
as the set of available drivers expands to include those below 16, the elderly
currently unable to drive, and the unlicensed.

If everyone starts sending their kid to school via their own autonomous car
its going to be a disaster.

A much better idea that doesn't run into issues of limited road space is of
course is autonomous public transit.

~~~
notatoad
Hopefully this regulation materializes as a regulation on personal transit,
rather than a regulation on autonomous transit. There's no reason a self-
driving car with one occupant is any less efficient than a manually-driven car
with one occupant.

If everybody starts sending their kid to school in a private waymo it's going
to be a disaster, but right now everybody drives themselves to work in a
private car and it already _is_ a disaster.

The Phoenix public transport director who hopes that waymo can bring people to
the high-capacity bus lines and the lrt has the right idea. If the waymo (or
Uber, or Lyft) app can integrate with public transit networks, that's the
ideal solution. I look forward to a day where you open your ride-hailing app
and you see options for "Uber all the way: $14, 18 minutes journey, pickup in
5 minutes" or "Uber+bus, $10, 20 minutes journey, pickup in 10 minutes" where
the Uber+bus option syncs with the bus schedules and schedules your pickup
with just enough time to catch a bus and schedules a pickup at the end of the
bus segment of the journey.

~~~
Tiktaalik
> The Phoenix public transport director who hopes that waymo can bring people
> to the high-capacity bus lines and the lrt has the right idea.

This is a nice hope to have, but so far all the evidence I've seen is that
Lyft/Uber competes with public transit, driving down public transit use and
making the streets more congested. I would expect autonomous ride hailing
would have an even greater effect.

~~~
dmortin
It's about pricing. If automated driving gets perfected then a ride with an
automated bus can be cheaper than with an automated taxi, because a bus have
less cost per seat than a car.

------
oska
A revealing quote showing how car transport often turns humans into aggressors
against pedestrians:

> “Kids walk and it halts,” she says. “It’s so polite. It's like, ‘Oh sorry.’
> It’s not rude enough.”

~~~
incompatible
A passenger can potentially be just as rude as a driver.

~~~
DoreenMichele
That quote is actually from the passenger criticizing the self driving car as
being "too polite."

~~~
incompatible
I assume their regular driver is always willing to wind down the window and
yell at pedestrians, or use the horn.

Perhaps passengers in self-driving cars should have a horn button.

~~~
DoreenMichele
Perhaps the passenger, who is described as someone acting like she has a
chauffeur, should learn better manners and more respect for other people
instead.

~~~
incompatible
That would be ideal, but I'm not expecting any major changes in human nature
simply because of technological change.

------
dsfyu404ed
>Trucking: Waymo has outfitted several Peterbilt Class 8 semi trucks with
autonomous packages. The hardware is exactly the same as what’s used on its
Pacifica minivans, and Krafcik says the software is 95 percent similar

Is that 5% the 5% that lets them pick routes that don't include under-height
structures , stupidly sharp turns, highly congested areas, or other places one
generally prefers to not be driving something larger than a panel van?

If so I highly look forward to the eventual (and already severely overdue
considering how trivial the problem is) release of this feature to their
consumer facing maps product.

Yes, I'm kind of annoyed that it's 2018 and I can't just check a checkbox that
says "avoid known under-height structures"

>The experience of riding in a Waymo is surprisingly mundane. The robotaxi
drives like a very careful human

I would really like to know how careful they mean. There's a fine line between
a good chauffeur for grandma and being so timid that anyone capable of driving
themselves would be very frustrated with its performance and people would honk
or make obscene gestures at you regularly

~~~
toast0
> I would really like to know how careful they mean.

Most of the Waymo vehicles i saw on the street around Mountain View were
pretty timid. Not enough that I needed to honk, but they basically were
sending out engraved invitations to pull in front of them. Most recent
example, in rush hour, at ~ 5 - 10 mph, maintaining 3 car lengths following
distance, signaling for an offramp maybe 10 car lengths before the painted
exit lane opened, and then following the traffic until the painted lane
started -- but the shoulder was wide and the exit lane was clear. Most human
drivers in this situation would either not signal until they were just about
to turn, and would probably have driven on the shoulder outside the lines for
some of the way, given the wide shoulder and clear exit lane.

~~~
dirkgently
So following rules is a problem now?

If Waymo gets caught violating even a small rule, there will be a thousand
articles on HN on self-centered Big Bad Silicon Valley.

~~~
toast0
Following the rules is better than say, merging into a bus and hoping it moves
or basically anything the Uber cars did ever. But following the rules when
it's totally safe to bend them means trips in a self-driving car take longer
than trips where a skilled human is driving, which lowers potential
accpetance.

~~~
Jyaif
You are just saying that the rules are bad.

~~~
toast0
The rules are missing nuance, but nuanced rules are hard to enforce.

The better rule would be "don't block the shoulder", instead of "don't drive
on the shoulder". But then someone ticketed for blocking the shoulder could
claim they weren't blocking it; but blocking is a question of degree, not a
question of fact.

If you're aware of the situation, and know you won't block the shoulder, it's
reasonable to drive on the shoulder, and you're unlikely to be ticketed for
it, even if an officer observes you, but not doing it in the presence of an
officer is part of situational awareness.

Yes, selective enforcement, but driving rules enforcement is going to be
selective unless you live in a police state or have big brother watching your
high res GPS all the time.

------
dev_dull
> _while a longer 11.3-mile trip lists a cost of $19.15. That’s similar to the
> cost of a ride from Uber Technologies Inc. or Lyft Inc., and cheaper than a
> local taxi._

I’m really curious to learn more about the economics of this price. My
understanding is that the lyft/uber pricing is subsidized. If Waymo can do the
same but at a profit, then that will make them hugely competitive.

~~~
kjksf
I guess-estimated the numbers from several angles.

What I came up with is that a single occupancy (i.e. one person per car) cost
will be less than $10/hour, which is competitive with public transport ($2.50
(subsidized) bus ticket in San Francisco, assume an average 15 min ride).

And it would drop significantly when sharing (2 to 4 people per car) or when
deploying mini buses (they cost more to build and operate but can carry 12 to
16 people, like Chariot buses).

And in the longer term (10+ years) they'll be even cheaper thanks to mass
production of cars, transitioning to electric cars, continuously improving
reliability of cars based on analyzing what breaks most frequently,
contracting own solar plants for cheapest charging etc.)

The obvious conclusion is that not only traditional taxis and uber and lyft
are done but also buses because it makes no sense to subsidize them with
hundreds of millions per year (for San Francisco) when private alternative is
cheaper and better.

You can see my full reasoning at
[https://blog.kowalczyk.info/article/ac23f6cdd3b543b3b89d9f68...](https://blog.kowalczyk.info/article/ac23f6cdd3b543b3b89d9f68e00435b8/predicted-
cost-of-robo-taxis.html) and
[https://blog.kowalczyk.info/article/e79db1cb2fcf4329ac37591b...](https://blog.kowalczyk.info/article/e79db1cb2fcf4329ac37591bfbb00782/how-
profitable-can-waymo-be.html)

~~~
nicoburns
Presumably self-driving buses would be cheaper still!

~~~
Skunkleton
Maybe. If the model were changed so that people scheduled rides ~15 mins in
advance and met for pickup/dropoff at a semi-centralized location.

~~~
QML
This idea naturally lends itself to a clustering problem such as k-means! We
can imagine a geographical density as a cluster and that semi centralized
pickup point as a centroid. As for deciding k, the number of cluster-centroid
pairs, we can leave that up to market prices.

One way to adapt the k-means algorithm to this would be to add a
“regularizing” or penalizing term proportional to the number of cars needed to
be deployed — you can think of this as the cost per car.

------
CaliforniaKarl
I see the Waymo test vehicles so often; I am really looking forward to this
rolling out on the peninsula!

------
analogmemory
This might be a dumb question, but are there any negative impacts of all these
LiDAR components with our eyes? I feel like I see all the excitement (and I'm
excited too) but has there been any studies on the effects of these laser
sensors?

What happens when they are ubiquitous?

------
donclark
What does this mean for car ownership/insurance companies/auto
dealers/mechanics/public transportation/etc?

Has anyone seen a roadmap that includes how other industries are
affected(disrupted)?

Should we think hard about selling our cars now before they are de-valued or
become more costly to drive?

Clean Disruption - Why Energy & Transportation will be Obsolete by 2030 -
Oslo, March 2016

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxryv2XrnqM&t=639smost](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxryv2XrnqM&t=639smost)

~~~
xyzzy123
One thing I haven’t seen much discussion of is the value of the data that
fleets of these cars are going to throw off.

It’s possible that the value of this data could subsidise ride costs. They
basically become a ubiquitous street level surveillance system and for this to
be effective you want a lot of them driving around.

Some examples:

Detailed local weather mapping.

Potential for near real time street view.

Very detailed sensing of traffic flows and trends, can also estimate
pedestrian traffic.

Could use the sensors to track _non_ self driving cars by alpnr. Locate stolen
or wanted vehicles.

Automated reporting of traffic infringements, dangerous driving or accidents.

Can estimate patronage of almost any business, via rides to destination,
counting carparks, local foot traffic etc.

Can sell data on infrastructure conditions (pothole location, missing signs,
etc) to cities.

Lots of other detailed profiling on riders, consumers, businesses. For example
can automatically distinguish between blue collar bars and cocktail lounges.

Almost certainly lots lots more I couldn’t imagine. It’s the _data_!

~~~
puranjay
With Google's existing maps knowledge, I can very easily see them subsidizing
the rides by showing passengers advertisements as they pass certain landmarks.

Say, you pass a mall and the passenger sees an ad on the car screen about a
sale at Macy's located inside the mall. With a single tap, the passenger has
the option of re-routing the car to the mall.

No way Google isn't going to try to monetize it with targeted ads

~~~
xyzzy123
Ooh that’s not bad. You could also pay to be higher in the rankings when
someone asks to be taken to someplace generic like “I want breakfast” or “what
liquor stores are nearby”.

------
tonyquart
I have just read a little bit of information regarding the legal side of self-
driving cars at [https://www.lemberglaw.com/self-driving-autonomous-car-
accid...](https://www.lemberglaw.com/self-driving-autonomous-car-accident-
injury-lawyers-attorneys/). I think the most important thing that car
companies and lawmakers should think seriously is the regulation. We all know
that we would never completely avoid accidents on the roads, so fixed
regulation is the most important thing when there are many accidents with
these robot cars involved.

------
CptMauli
The pricing is way too high. The price should be compared to a car sharing
program, not with a taxi service.

The trip to school for my kid would cost, when using a car from a car sharing
program around 4€. This is quite a difference to the mentioned $19. Even
DriveNow, which is maybe the most expensive car sharing service in Germany, we
are talking about maybe 9€.

------
DoreenMichele
_The Jacksons, who Waymo made available for this story, have largely ditched
their own cars and now use self-driving vehicles to go almost everywhere
within the 100 square-mile operating area: track practice, grocery shopping,
movies, the train station.

All rides are free for volunteers, but the Waymo app recently started to show
hypothetical prices.

A Waymo spokesperson says the placeholder price is a way to solicit feedback
from volunteers and “does not reflect the various pricing models under
consideration.” It’s certainly got the Jackson family wondering how the
service they’ve come to rely on will soon fit into their lives._

I am assuming no one promised them free rides for life. How easy it is to
become dependent on something "free" and not think about what it might cost in
the future when you can no longer live without it.

~~~
pnloyd
For my next job I plan on going full Uber + public transit for transport. Uber
to the bus terminal and take a nice relaxed bus ride to downtown Seattle
dropping me off directly next to my job. I did the math and at 8$ per ride my
monthly expense should be 8$ * twice per day * 20 days per months = $320, well
below the cost of ownership for a vehicle.

Maybe they thought about it and came to the conclusion it's worth it. In my
case it's surplus, not a cost.

~~~
ericpauley
Don't doubt the park and ride! Living in Seattle area, and for work I drive
less than a mile to a bus stop with ample parking, occasionally stop for
coffee, then get dropped off right at work.

The great outdoors of Washington are too good to waste, be sure to factor that
into your numbers.

~~~
dingaling
> I drive less than a mile to a bus stop

At that distance shouldn't you be doing walk and ride?

~~~
ericpauley
Just looked, it's 1.2 miles. I've walked it before but when I wake up in the
morning an extra 20 minutes of sleep is usually more appealing.

------
yaseer
One thing I wonder is; how will these companies test software updates to
production?

Does anybody know if there is legislation around software testing when human
life is at stake?

------
lawrenceyan
Any info on when paid rides are going to roll out?

~~~
kjksf
I don't know but reading between the lines: soon.

This article happened because Waymo wanted it to happen.

Waymo has a very strict NDA which is why outside of Google press releases we
haven't heard a word about how this early rider program works.

Google explicitly allowed Bloomberg reporter to interview few people who used
Waymo car.

The only reason for Waymo to allow this publicity is because they are gearing
up for a public, unrestricted release.

~~~
Firerouge
Google doesn't usually do public unrestricted releases out the gate,
particularly not for disruptive technologies.

Expect a few years of invite only closed beta.

~~~
kjksf
They publicly stated they plan to launch this year
([https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/waymo-self-driving-car-
se...](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/waymo-self-driving-car-service-
launch-this-year-phoenix/))

------
sandworm101
>> ... to convince this 17-year-old to put off an American rite of passage:
getting her driver’s license. As Kyla puts it, “What’s the point?”

Get the license. Driverless tech or not, a driver's has use for all sorts of
things. A 17yo looking for a job? Get it and don't use it. Don't wait until
you are in your 20s and you loose out on an opportunity for or at work because
you don't have a valid DL. Same too for passports.

~~~
tomjakubowski
Other than for jobs that directly involve driving, why wouldn't a state ID be
equally valid for work? It would be very strange in the US to accept a drivers
license as identification but not a state ID.

~~~
SeanBoocock
A driver's license is one of the most ubiquitous forms of government issued
photo identification in the United States. There is no national ID and most
people have a driver's license in lieu of any state identification card. It
might be equally valid, but is quite less common in practice.

~~~
dragonwriter
Yes, but that is not an argument for why you should get a DL instead of state
ID.

------
puranjay
I wonder if kids born today will ever need to learn how to drive.

------
cliffy
The pricing quoted in the article seems way too high. Comparable price to an
Uber or Lyft ride? People on the fench about autonomous vehicles are going to
pick human drivers unless the price per mile drops considerably.

~~~
pnloyd
The article says those are just demo prices to test customer's reactions, and
then goes on to say those prices reflect 1.70$ per mile, comparable to uber
and lift, but that an analyst said they could afford to go as low as 70 cents
per a mile now, and 35 cents per a mile by 2020. If that's true and
materialize, WOW!

~~~
neaden
I'm surprised by this, 35 cents is less than the IRS deduction for mileage at
about 55 cents a mile which is supposed to represent depreciation and direct
expenses, how would they get so much lower?

~~~
TangoTrotFox
While I think we can only speculate on exactly what Waymo is doing, in general
driverless taxis should be able to be operated for even less per mile than it
would cost if you purchased a vehicle yourself. The reason is economies of
scale along with the potential for vertical integration. There are pretty big
margins in most things related to vehicles from parts to maintenance to
repairs. Economy of scale can bring those much closer to 0, and vertical
integration can bring them literally to 0.

This is why I think driverless taxis will be much bigger than many people
expect, but also why this industry is going to get monopolized like none
other. Bigger players will be able to get taxis to you faster, offer them
cheaper, and still show bigger profit margins than smaller players. And
without scaling labor costs... whoever wins this industry is going to be
making a completely ridiculous amount of money. Consider that in 2016 3.2
trillion miles were driven in the US alone. 10% of those miles is 320 billion.
A profit margin of a nickle above operating costs is a _net_ of $16 billion.
That's at operating on a nickle per mile, with 10% of 2016's mileage, in a
single country.

On the other hand I expect all the players will realize this, so we should see
and benefit from some insane competition as long as the market remains
relatively free.

~~~
tomerico
I actually see this market much harder to protect (assuming self driving
becomes a solved problem).

With Uber, as it is today, you have the strong forces of a network effect
(where drivers are stuck because the passengers are there, and the passengers
are stuck because the drivers are there). This effect is historically very
difficult to break, a canonical example would be craigslist.

While rolling out self driving cars, simply requires money. If for example,
San Francisco has 1000 Uber drivers active at any time today, all you need is
to roll out 1000 cars yourself in the city, and the service you provide is
equivalent to Uber.

In other words, if self driving technology becomes common, the market is going
to be commoditized to the point where there is very little profit margin for
any player (such as in the airline industry).

~~~
kjksf
Market dynamics demonstrated in other commodity businesses say otherwise.

In a commodity market you win with combination of price and brand.

When it comes to price, a player with a fleet of a million cars can wage a
pricing war for longer than a player with a fleet of 10 thousand cars because
economies of scale mean that it costs them less, per car, to provide the
service.

If this is a new entrant, the incumbents also have an accumulated war chest
from past revenues they can use to outprice the competition.

And they also have more money to out-advertise the new guy. GM spends $3
billion a year on advertising which is why, not counting Tesla, the youngest
surviving car company was founded in 1925.

It's also why Kellog dominates in cornflake space, coca-cola in soda business
etc.

Which is why there will be a mad rush to grab the market share early on. Once
someone reaches significant scale, it'll be virtually impossible to catch up
with them.

------
mrweasel
A little off-topic: Are the Waymo cars absolutely huge or are the two women in
the first picture just tiny?

------
astazangasta
8 million miles in fully-autonomous mode. I'll repeat my favorite statistic -
the safety rate for auto driving in the US is about 1.5 deaths per 100 million
passenger miles. That is, Waymo is about 12.5X from having driven enough to
see a single death on average, if they're driving as well as a human. Not
enough data. Still, I imagine we'll fast-track this into place with no
regulatory oversight, because $$$$$$$$$.

~~~
lern_too_spel
0.7% of car accidents in Florida are fatal. That works out to more than one
accident every half a million miles for humans.

