

HTML5, Flash and Silverlight. Which one is dead? - herbrandson
http://blog.scratchaudio.com/2010/11/html5-flash-silverlight-which-one-is-dead/

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yardie
Probably Flash.

* HTML5 has widespread support amongst all new browsers and mobile platforms.

* Silverlight will probably move on to embedded corporate applications or atleast that is how microsoft has described it. Plus they have the funds to bankroll it for a decade. One thing about Microsoft, either they kill it early or kill it very late. There are some platforms that have lived long past everyone forgetting they ever existed.

* Flash is going to be fighting a shrinking pie of mindshare. It won't happen right away but once it reaches a tipping point these things go really fast.

So the question should be which is dead first?

~~~
bad_user
[http://www.google.com/trends?q=adobe+flash,+microsoft+silver...](http://www.google.com/trends?q=adobe+flash,+microsoft+silverlight,+HTML5)

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zdw
Flash should have died years ago.

I do work with blind people, and a Flash site is a smack in the face to them.
They most commonly access the web the same way Google would - as text.

Yes, you can make Flash that supports accessibility, but in practice nobody
does this - they really don't care about anyone using their only available
alternate method of viewing the web.

~~~
poppysan
Flash is accessible -- unless devs dont use it properly. My problem with the
flash debate is that terrible developers are the root of nearly every issue,
not the language...

~~~
kj12345
Yeah the whole issue is being talked about in a very bizarre way. If Flash
were really just dying, no one would be talking about it (see JavaFX). If
Flash/Flex were simply not accessible, there would be a push to get better
accessibility support. (For the record Flex, at least, does have fairly solid
accessibility support:
[http://www.adobe.com/accessibility/products/flex/overview.ht...](http://www.adobe.com/accessibility/products/flex/overview.html)
)

Instead what I think is going on is that there's a big pushback against Adobe
for failing to develop and open up the platform, and this anger at Adobe is
being worded as analysis.

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devmonk
It might still be used heavily, but Microsoft has stated that they will be
investing more fully in HTML5. Silverlight won't last.

~~~
TomOfTTB
Microsoft is being foolish about Silverlight so you might be right but on the
facts themselves you are just wrong.

HTML5 has gotten to the point where I think we can safely assume there won't
be major new features added. Meaning HTML5 won't be able to...

\- Record audio and video

\- Support advanced video features like overlays

\- Support pay media features like tracking, DRM, etc...

\- Support out of browser experience (though I suppose each browser could
implement this)

\- Support multi-threading (though I suppose each browser could implement
this)

\- and others I can't think of off the top of my head

So either Flash or Silverlight will still have a future long after everyone's
using HTML 5 based browsers. The question is whether Microsoft can capitalize
on Flash's diminishing position and use successes like Netflix to supplant
Adobe.

(Which is why I said Microsoft is being stupid by not giving Silverlight more
support)

~~~
sgrove
A few points:

I'm not sure what you mean by "Record audio and video", but there is a device
access API for webapps to get to webcams, mics, video game controllers, etc.

Mozilla's audio api also allows Javascript to generate raw audio data, and I
expect (well, certainly hope) that this will be adopted by the other browsers
as well.

Video overlays - I'm not sure what you meant since there are a few different
terms like this. If you mean routing the video data in a certain way, you're
right, I don't see that happening. If you mean overlaying one video on top of
another (or anything like that), that's already possible - check out
<http://html5doctor.com/video-canvas-magic/>

The rest of it you may be right. DRM will have to be browser-specific, and
it's likely to fit in at all with an OSS project. Multi-threading seems like
it would likely require a change to the Javascript implementations.

~~~
TomOfTTB
On the video over lay I actually meant overlaying dynamic text onto video
which was wan more of a pain than I ever imagined it could be.

As for your other points I don't disagree there are other options from the
various browsers (Mozilla being the most aggressive) but they aren't part of
the standard and will be browser specific. The beauty of Silverlight is that
the plugin works in every browser in the same way.

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extension
It is a huge waste to build a such large piece of software on a platform with
so little life remaining and that is already so crippled. That 75% install
base is only going to go down and already the coolest people and devices can't
use your app.

If you're going to make something as progressive as a web-based DAW, make sure
it has a future, even if it's not quite ready for the present.

~~~
gabrielroth
This. Skate to where the puck is going to be—especially if you're making
something cool and ambitious. Take your best guess as to what the installed
base for Flash, Silverlight and HTML5 will look like in two years. _Two
years!_ An eyeblink!

I think the word 'dead' can be confusing, because the hackery meaning differs
from the ordinary meaning so much. None of those technologies is 'dead' in the
sense of 'defunct.' But 'dead' meaning 'on a road whose only endpoint is
obsolescence'—I'm gonna say Silverlight and Flash are dead.

~~~
OmniBus
Every software will be obsoleted eventually. Software will evolve into another
piece. But it is long time to go.

Full Standard implemented by vendors takes exceptional long time. It is very
frustrating. Developers have to deal with numerous compatibility issues. So it
is too early to say either Silverlight or Flash is dead.

Even if there is a mature JavaScript library and framework that comparable to
existing Silverlight and Flash. It still takes long time to change. Companies
and developers investing heavily on one technology will not adapt new
technology very soon, considering that large base of existing software, human
talents relies on that technology.

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simonw
tldr: "Silverlight isn't dead", claims developer who bet the farm on
Silverlight

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deadmansshoes
In the example there is one technology briefly reffered to and then ignored -
desktop apps. For recording and editing music why limit yourself to a browser
or browser plug-in?

~~~
herbrandson
There are so many desktop DAW's out there that we felt we needed something
unique about us in order to compete. Our site focuses on a cloud based
experience. The goal is to make collaboration and sharing really easy.

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jstein1
flash...no question

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GrandMasterBirt
Currently on linux. Can't play most silverlight content. Sorry homie.

