
Anxiety and burnout: why kids are consumed with worry - petethomas
https://www.vox.com/first-person/2019/1/10/18174263/anxiety-kids-burnout
======
ergothus
I watched Stranger Things for the first time a few months ago (I know, I know,
but at least I did).

I cried. Not at the scenes I think most people might. I cried because there
was a scene where it was so obvious that the older brother was being treated
as the "Man of the House".

I'm over 40, and grew up as the older-by-5 years sibling with a single mom. I
had no idea I had all of this repressed trauma from being old enough to
understand I was being given all of this responsibility, but no way to
actually achieve it, or even a way to know if I was doing well enough. So I
could never DO well enough, despite always wanting to.

Despite this, I grew up considered a pretty laid back, Zen guy. Until I got
married. Now I'm a constant ball of stress. I'm unhealthy, and my sleep is so
messed up that "good" nights are those that are less bad. Doctors tell me I
should exercise more. All of this despite being financially successful and
very happily married. I constantly feel like disaster looms around every
corner. I'm aware of how lucky I am and how I screw this up (or just have it
screwed up for me) at any moment, and I feel like I can't every fully relax
because _I have to be responsible_.

Another poster here generalized beyond this article to say that we as a nation
(and perhaps world) are at a high level of anxiety, and we reflect it in
everything and kids pick up on that. I think they're very, very right. I find
myself reflecting way too often that I'm glad I don't have kids - they won't
have to live with the mess society is generating that I can't fix. Because no
matter what I'm doing, I can never do enough to fix it. And I'm very, very
tired.

~~~
Wowfunhappy
You, as a child, were given responsibility as the "man of the house" because
there was no father? Shouldn't your mother have been the head of household?

It says a lot about society that a male child was implicitly given
responsibility instead of his grown mother. And based on your age, I'd guess
this was in the 70s or 80s, not the 50s.

~~~
ergothus
This is very indicative of the 70s and 80s - at least for the US.

No fault divorce was first legalized here in California in the late 70s, and
in most states by the mid-80s. This increased the number of divorces, and I
don't know the numbers, but I imagine there was an initial "boom" of pent-up
unhappy marriages that took advantage at first before the numbers leveled out.

There's a reason the sitcoms of the era tended to involve single-parent homes
(often with friends/family filling in) - this was an attack on the cultural
idea of "norm". Putting children in the role of "man of the family" when there
wasn't a father was a big thing, at least in the culture I grew up in. And
since everyone now has grown up with that, it isn't going away quickly.

No idea of the quality of this db, but a search for "you're the man of the
family" in movies turned up over a dozen matches for that exact phrase:
[http://www.quodb.com/search/you're%20the%20man%20of%20the%20...](http://www.quodb.com/search/you're%20the%20man%20of%20the%20family),
with most being between 1980-2010 - and it looks like those were generally
delivered to children (a few to female children).

The Mom may have been head of the household, but the eldest son was (and is)
treated as if that Y chromosome imbues him with mystical powers and
responsibility, even if very young.

~~~
Wowfunhappy
Stupid question about that website, how can you see what character is being
spoken to? I'm curious what the context would be for telling a female child
"you're the man of the family", so I'd like to dig into those if possible.

------
munificent
I imagine success like a little island, a hill surrounded by ocean. You're
born wherever on the hill your parents happen to live. Your effort plus a lot
of luck determines how high up that hill you're able to climb.

The higher you reach, the better the view and the fresher the coconuts. But
more importantly, the farther you are from the sea. The next cyclone that
rolls by chance sometimes washes anyone living too close to shore out to sea.

For generations, Americans took for granted that the hill was getting bigger,
the slope was gentle, and each batch of kids could take a couple of easy steps
forward and comfortably land somewhere safer and more prosperous than Mom and
Dad.

But the last forty years or so of increasing economic disparity mean the peak
of the hill gets higher and the slope up to it steeper every year. Harder and
harder to climb, and easier to slip down, or get knocked down by a rival.

Meanwhile, outsourcing, offshoring and automation mean there is less and less
shore near the bottom where you can start from. The sea is rising and if you
can't at least reach the elevation marked "skilled worker", you better hope
you're a good swimmer. (On top of this, the seas _literally are rising_ ,
which will disproportionately harm the poor, just like Hurricane Katrina took
out the lowest-elevation neighborhoods the worst.)

It is clear that many of the rich in power in this country don't give a damn
about this. As far as they're concerned, the more people that get washed out
to sea, the more coconuts there are left for them. They're so high up now,
they can barely see the rest down there scrabbling to stay dry.

My hope is that a new wave of elected officials will change the direction
we're heading. But right now, the future looks grim, and our childrens'
anxiety is entirely rational.

~~~
manfredo
Is there any source to back up this claim that life is getting more difficult
for Americans? Inequality has risen, but that does not mean that things are
getting worse for those at the bottom ends of the wealth distribution. By most
metrics (really, all of them other than home ownership and healthcare costs -
both of which are primarily causes by an undersupply of housing and a growing
cohort of old people, rather then inequality) life has continued to get
better, even for the poor. Objective metrics like infant mortality, access to
infrastructure like electricity and plumbing, educational attainment, all
indicate positive trends. Measures of poverty based on post tax income and
purchasing power indicate a drop in poverty by factors of two and five
respecticely over the past 40 years [1].

The fact that many feel this way is an interesting perspective in and of
itself. But perhaps more interesting is the fact that this is directly at odds
with most objective metrics.

1\. [https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-
america/2018/03/01/po...](https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-
america/2018/03/01/poverty-in-america)

~~~
AlexandrB
> But perhaps more interesting is the fact that this is directly at odds with
> most objective metrics.

It's really not. Even the expected lifespan of Americans is declining. The
only objective metrics that look good are GDP - and growth in this area is
increasingly distributed upwards while the middle class doesn't really see a
benefit. A reduction in poverty is good (assuming it's real and not a
statistical sleight of hand), but the kids this article is talking about are
the middle class - which is in decline[1].

[1] [http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/05/11/americas-
shrinking...](http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/05/11/americas-shrinking-
middle-class-a-close-look-at-changes-within-metropolitan-areas/)

~~~
manfredo
> The only objective metrics that look good are GDP

The link I provided gave several objective metrics that indicate positive
trends. More people have access to goods and services that used to be more
exclusive. People without access to basic infrastructure (e.g. plumbing,
electricity)s are drastically fewer.

Upper, middle, and lower class are artificial labels. They don't correspond to
quality of life. A decline or increase in one does not indicate a change in
hardship. The question I seek to answer is, "has life gotten better or worse
for the average person?" or "how has life changed for the Americans in the X
to Y income percentile?". Overall the trends are positive.

Even life expectancy has a overall upwards trend. It has gone from about 70 to
close to 80 over the past 40 years, which was the time frame that the previous
commenter referred to.

~~~
leggomylibro
It's comparing today to the '60s and '70s, of course it looks good by material
standards:

>These measures better reflect changes in household welfare. Bruce Sacerdote,
an economist at Dartmouth College notes the poorest quarter of households in
America had 0.75 vehicles per household in 1970 compared to 1.4 per household
in 2015. In 1960, more than one third of households in the bottom quarter of
the income distribution lacked indoor plumbing; by 2015 virtually all
households had indoor water and sewer systems. Microwave ovens have spread
from luxury to ubiquity alongside mobile phones—microwaves are now owned by
97% of households.

Sure, it's great that we aren't dealing with Cholera outbreaks anymore, but
that's not what people are talking about here and it might come across as a
bit insulting and disingenuous to point to the fact that indoor plumbing is
now available to people living in poverty as a counterpoint to skyrocketing
wealth inequality.

~~~
manfredo
> It's comparing today to the '60s and '70s, of course it looks good by
> material standards

That is the time frame specified by the original commenter.

> Sure, it's great that we aren't dealing with Cholera outbreaks anymore, but
> that's not what people are talking about here

Then what _are_ people taking about here? People in this thread (and society
at large) are saying life is getting harder over the past several decades, but
conspicuously absent are measurements that demonstrate that this is the case.

People can afford better things, are provided with better services. Post
taxes, less people are in poverty. Post taxes, and adjusted for purchasing
power, less than a fifth as many people are in poverty. This directly
contradicts the original poster's claim that it is easier than ever to slip
into poverty. The shore, to reuse his metaphor, is not shrinking. And yet,
many seem to harbor the idea that it is. That's the mysterious aspect.

~~~
throwaway218649
> Then what are people taking about here?

It is instructive to read Marx to answer this question. How much time do
working people need to work every day to earn enough to reproduce themselves?
College education is now expected for many jobs (working people reproducing
themselves means the next generation having access to similar jobs). How big
of a fraction of median income does a median college degree cost? What about
healthcare, rent/home prices? Food and clothing prices have declined a lot,
but the other prices have risen to a much greater proportion of median income.
How many people are now working two or more "part-time" jobs for a total of
more than 40 hours a week?

~~~
manfredo
I'm more than happy to answer your questions, at least insofar as you are
inquiring about facts:

> How much time do working people need to work every day to earn enough to
> reproduce themselves?

The Economist article linked above says that adjusted for inflation and taxes,
less than one fifth as many people struggle to do so as compared to 40 years
ago. Sure, it's valid to say that the percentage of people that experience
that struggle (~3-4%) is still a figure that is unacceptably high. But it has
been a drastic reduction from what it was four decades earlier (over 15%).

> College education is now expected for many jobs (working people reproducing
> themselves means the next generation having access to similar jobs).

A strange observation to make, seeing as the non-college educated reproduce at
a greater rate than those who do.[1]

> What about healthcare, rent/home prices?

I mention that those are exceptions to the overall trend, but also explain
that those are due to well known reasons: a large ageing generation, and an
unwillingness to build housing in many growing metro areas. They are not cause
by inequality, though good arguments can be made that they exacerbate it.

> Food and clothing prices have declined a lot, but the other prices have
> risen to a much greater proportion of median income.

Sure, some things like housing have gotten more expensive. But plenty of
others have gotten cheaper. In aggregate, costs are going down. That's what
the Economist article I linked above explains.

> How many people are now working two or more "part-time" jobs for a total of
> more than 40 hours a week?

People are spending less time on work on average.[2]

1\.
[https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/97facts/edu2birt.htm](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/97facts/edu2birt.htm)

2\.
[https://amp.businessinsider.com/images/520f835b6bb3f7730d000...](https://amp.businessinsider.com/images/520f835b6bb3f7730d00002f-480-360.jpg)

~~~
michaelchisari
_A strange observation to make, seeing as the non-college educated reproduce
at a greater rate than those who do_

You've misinterpreted his use of the word "reproduce". It's not about birth
rates.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reproduction_(economics)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reproduction_\(economics\))

------
gumby
I was appalled by the idea that kids in grade 9 are supposed to be taking
clusters of classes for career preparation. What happened to getting a broad
education (especially in high school!) so that you can think about a variety
of topics and participate as a member of civic society and have a foundation
to be able to learn to do whatever job is useful in the 2030s or 2040s? Kids
in the 80s didn't take classes to help them become web developers, but
hopefully they got the necessary skills to do that job when it eventually
arrived.

==

I went the opposite way with my own kid (do as well as you can in a bunch of
subjects, think about which ones you like) to try to prepare him better _and_
spare him a lot of the execution optimization anxiety. As a result: high
school was much better for him...but he now has these "what the hell will be
my career" and "am I taking the right classes" anxieties in college :-(.

At least he didn't jump in front of a train like a disturbing number of other
Palo Alto high schoolers did.

~~~
mrguyorama
There is this seemingly comprehensive belief here in America that is utterly
embedded in culture and common assumptions that the only value a human life
has is to increase the GDP and enrich someone else

~~~
nugget
Middle class American kids are raised to have certain expectations about
quality of life - that if they pursue a decent education then they can work 40
hours a week and afford a comfortable house in a safe neighborhood, resources
to attract a spouse and build a family, good schools for their kids, and so
on.

Most wake up in their mid 20s and realize that they have a pile of student
loan debt and housing in desirable areas is beyond reach. It's the fundamental
disconnect between what society (parents, media, culture) led them to expect
and the reality they are confronted with that causes confusion, despair, and
anger.

Reactions are varied. Some give up, some dig in. The American dream is still
alive and well it's just accessed differently than it used to be and we don't
talk about that enough with young people. Personally I'm surprised the
youngest generations aren't even greedier, more ruthless, and more focused on
economic value than they seem to be, based on the structure and incentives of
the world into which they were born.

~~~
mjevans
I grow more resentful and despise the way many will vote for a politician and
hope and believe that change will happen, even with no track record to support
it.

44 at least got SOME kind of healthcare, but not enough, shoved through before
things gridlocked.

45 ... I understand and sympathize with why many followed this siren's call,
but it's all emotional rhetoric and very little of real substance. I hope they
are replaced soon and move on to making "The East Wing", a reality inspired
drama made for TV.

------
pat2man
My hypothesis: people are either consciously or unconsciously afraid that most
jobs will disappear in the near to medium future. This is manifesting itself
in many ways (nationalism, etc.). Adults feel it, children feel it. Our
leaders are doing their best to make us feel like they have it under control
but no one has a good solution, and until we come up with something these
problems are just going to get worse and worse.

~~~
monkeynotes
I am not sure it's just about jobs. Wealth in general is evaporating from the
lower/middle class rapidly. There was a time when middle-class wages were kept
in-line with inflation, this doesn't happen any more.

The wealth is being syphoned away from the economy at large into the coffers
of huge corporations/individuals who just warehouse the wealth.

There is very much a sense of resources being scarce and it's due to those
resources and wealth being taken out of the economy.

~~~
dantheman
Is it though? It seems spending on health, education, and housing are all
through the roof. Everything else is better and cheaper -- why are these 3
growing at outrageous rates?

~~~
rchaud
Education costs (college and up) are increasing because institutions have no
incentive to manage tuition costs if the default assumption is that people
will take out loans to pay them anyway.

~~~
kardos
And people keep taking out loans because the (anticipated) ROI is still
positive, eg, there is consumer surplus available to be captured

~~~
jimbokun
But the ROI keeps going down, and may be negative soon for many degrees.

~~~
ishjoh
I suspect it's already negative for a number of degrees but there isn't enough
data to prove that yet.

------
Loughla
A bit of a rant here - Having worked in education both here in the States and
in Korea, this makes a ton of sense.

We all lauded the accomplishments of Asian countries in measures of math,
science, and English. We sought to replicate their success.

And we have started. One thing about the US student was that we used to be
behind in math and science, but our creativity was our strength.

And we're educating that out of the system, in the pursuit of standardized
objectives (standardized objectives that encourage the development of things
like remind to constantly keep kids on track, career clusters for focus, and
the pressure to decide a career in 6th, 7th, or 8th grade).

~~~
moosey
I made a terrible mistake and I put a lot of pressure on my daughter to do
well in school, do well in extracurriculars, etc.

I made the measurement the goal.

Now I'm trying to undo that damage and put it in her mind that at any point
you can change direction, study, knowledge, but you need a few tools to do so:
self-criticism, discipline, critical thinking. Initial progress has been good
and our relationship is running quite a bit smoother, but Jesus I could have
left my kid seriously messed up.

I think that a huge amount of this derives, in the US, from the continued
degradation of the social safety net in this country. We have put an expensive
gateway in front of success with very expensive college, and even with that
there is no guarantee of a job that pays well enough for you to live
comfortably. That in addition to the traditional standard of the "Atomic
Family".

I have no proof of that, but it certainly seemed to have been a major factor
in our house, but I have to recognize that individual human brilliance can
occur at any point in life, and that the tools to act on it are more important
than many of the things that she is learning at school.

~~~
refurb
_continued degradation of the social safety net in this country_

What degradation? Spending on the social safety net has only ever increased,
not decreased.

~~~
sjg007
The population has grown. Obviously spending increases. However, access to the
safety net has decreased as have the net benefits. In other news water is wet.

~~~
nugget
I used to believe this but it turns out that net benefits (by almost any
measure) have increased continually:

[https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-05-16/the-u-...](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-05-16/the-
u-s-social-safety-net-has-improved-a-lot)

The fact that so many people don't "feel" more secure from these very
expensive investments may point to other structural problems.

~~~
Aeolun
Or maybe the social security net was always atrocious, now it’s just a little
bit less so.

(Not saying that’s necessarily the case, just that it could be)

~~~
refurb
The US has a larger social spending budget than Canada.

So if the US is “less horrendous”, then canada’s must be even worse?

------
almost_usual
Technology is only the reminder of the stress. Kids are dealing with:

1.) A constant reminder that rapid climate change on Earth is going to
drastically change the quality of their life in the near future.

2.) Less jobs, automation will inevitably consume more jobs for the next
generation resulting in more service level work or careers that feel empty
without much opportunity. The pressure to do compete for a desirable job will
continue at an increasing rate.

3.) Extreme competition to live where you grew up or where desirable jobs are.
The youth suicide rate in the Bay Area Peninsula (specifically Palo Alto) is
the highest in the country. Kids need to compete at a world class level to get
into a world class university to gain entry to a career where they _might_
have the ability to afford a home in their neighborhood. Anything less will be
seen as failure to their friends or family. Similarly children who didn't grow
up in the area face a life of trying to break in to a major metropolitan area
where the highly skilled desirable jobs are.

~~~
CalRobert
I wish more of these people knew you can escape the bay. Escape California.
Move somewhere cheap. Make your own life. You won't have a fancy car but if
you're clever enough you'll be OK. Hell, start a homestead. I'm increasingly
suspicious that we've managed to make modern life _worse_ than sustenance
farming for a not-tiny percentage of the population.

~~~
cordonbleu
...

~~~
jpindar
What? Vermont is 37th in population density. Alaska is by far the lowest (or
Wyoming if you're only counting the lower 48).

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States_by_population_density)

~~~
NeoBasilisk
Unfortunately, many of the people that grew up in Calfornia/NY/etc have the
view that there are a maximum of maybe 5 states worth living in.

------
osrec
Summary: the anxiety is driven by pressure to do well in life, amplified by
technology constantly reminding kids of this.

~~~
jpm_sd
I have 3 kids in elementary school. So far my career advice plan for them is
as follows:

Pick something and try to get really good at it. If that doesn't work, pick
something else.

(Privileged, top 5%-er) parenting in 2019 is a constant battle against the
temptations of over-scheduling and over-enrichment. Kids need time to relax
and goof around without being under pressure.

~~~
ticmasta
I too have 3 in elementary, and offer similar advice, adding:

Don't look to me to tell you _what_ you should do; the hottest vocations of my
generation will likely not even exist for yours (example: petroleum engineer).
Look externally, experiment, measure, iterate. (essentially your first point)

* Make lots of mistakes, because mistakes mean you're trying new things, but with 2 caveats:

1/ try not to make any fatal mistakes

2/ don't repeat the same mistakes

* You have the resources of multiple generations of lucky & hard-working people at your disposal; don't waste them but make sure you use them (meaning educated families, diverse experiences and money)

* Your overall goal is to do your best to leave the environment you were born into better-off than it was when you started, meaning you've worked to improve the position of your family, community and the broader world.

~~~
rchaud
> * Make lots of mistakes, because mistakes mean you're trying new things, but
> with 2 caveats:

This is all well and good when they're in school and still dependent on your
financial support. Once they're on their own (say, at age 22), and start
making mistakes, the stakes are a lot higher and the margin for error a low
narrower.

Let's say you majored in something but did poorly overall. That's mistake #1.
You won't have as wide of a berth for mistake #2, because you are likely still
suffering the consequences of #1.

------
JamesBarney
This seems to resonate with me. My little sister who is graduated highschool
in 2014 had a very different experience than I did graduating in 2004.

I'd stay up late finishing homework in highschool but usually it'd be a rare
occurrence caused by my own procrastination.

She'd routinely stay up past my parents because she just genuinely had 6-10
hrs of homework a night.

~~~
rb808
Dude my _elementary_ school daughter often stays up past one of her parents as
she has genuinely had 6-10 hrs of homework many nights.

~~~
otikik
I am not going to tell you how to educate your daughter. I can tell you that
if my son was going through that, I would think that something was very wrong.

~~~
ngngngng
Same, I would certainly not enforce my child finishing all of that homework. I
might go so far as to tell them not to. There's no way that wouldn't interfere
with family time.

------
tomsthumb
Author claims it isn’t social media, then proceeds to describe the use of what
is effectively social media applications where students communicate with their
school and teachers. The apps are noted as a problem due to their
notifications and because it’s more difficult to leave school at school since
the app is on their phone. Curiously, this is similar to what Jonathan Haidt
points out as one of the big negatives of social media.

~~~
gumby
I wouldn't consider the school texting you your marks to be "social media".

This example was used in the article to show how the kids are randomly sent
stimulations for which they are not prepared. Plausible, but unproven (not
that this article pretends to be science; it's a collection of useful
anecdotes with some reflections on them).

~~~
tomsthumb
The article explicitly mentions that students use an app called Remind. I
would not call this, along with the web portal etc, social media per se, but
it does approximately fulfill the ISocialMedia interface.

~~~
gumby
I think there's an important distinction. Social media are by definition
social, so what happens there is public.

Getting your marks sent to you when you are in a different context is private;
you can feel shame or stress and in fact _not_ know how you rank vs your
peers.

The social stress isn't that new, and as far as marks went both my parents
grew up under systems where the marks were posted outside the classroom and
class ranking was also public.

I was really struck about the "prepared" part -- a lot of this should be
considered spam: I don't need to know my marks (or bank balance etc) in
realtime; I want to be able to get that info when I am ready to ask for it.
The continual barrage of requests for attention is itself stressful. Having
access to uninterrupted quiet (and boredom, especially for younger kids) is
important for mental health and creativity.

Social has its own positive place as well. HN is a form of that.

~~~
bluntfang
disagree that social = public.

~~~
gumby
Sorry, I don't mean "public" in the sense of "universally accessible".

I'm using the sociological sense where "private" means "to one's self" and
"social" or "public" mean "part of a common experience or utterance with at
least one other person" because I think that's the important distinction in
this thread.

------
AtlasBarfed
It's the boomers. Especially the ultra-rich boomers.

A generation that has bankrupted the nation, destroyed its foundations,
disenfranchised entire following generations, vastly inflated the relative
cost of housing, education, and healthcare and leaving a massive debt.

~~~
the_jeremy
You might be right, but given that they didn't set out to do this, that they
want their children and grandchildren to grow up and lead happy, successful
lives, and that they weren't just some generational error where everyone was a
selfish bastard but were mostly well-meaning people, how does this attribution
help? It doesn't appear that we're learning from their mistakes with our
current political climate or policies.

~~~
NeoBasilisk
Our current political climate is due to their voting patterns over the last 30
years.

------
rdiddly
The irony of the "career clusters" in the one kid's course registration manual
(that are supposed to help you get a high-skill/high-wage/high-demand job), is
that they are the usual well-meaning suggestions by people who have no idea
how to get a high-skill, high-wage, or high-demand job. Mind you I'm not
taking a pot-shot at educators here (though you could read it that way); I'm
just saying, nobody has an accurate idea what the landscape will look like in
6 or 8 years (which is when this kid will be out in the job market), much less
how best to prepare for it. There is doubt attached to both the forecast and
the preparation methods.

------
dudewhodoesmath
I sometimes feel skeptical about `privilege' and `white privilege' and I think
of them as over applied twitter concepts. But then I read articles like this
and I am reminded of the meaning of privilege. I'm basically not stressed. I
am very happy with my financial outlook. I'm about to lift weights. I bake my
own bread. I have a supportive and kind partner. I do math. Biases go in my
favor. The narrative in this article basically doesn't jive with my lived
experience. Each year my life has basically monotonically improved.

My one interaction with a peace officer was scrubbed from my record because of
a nice apology letter I wrote.

I guess that is privilege and it is real.

------
abledon
Harvard Psychologist on Joe Rogan commented on this phenomenon in the past
couple days, social media was definitely part of it:

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CI6rX96oYnY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CI6rX96oYnY)

------
JDiculous
What a sad country the U.S. has become. I wonder if this state of anxiety is
also the norm in European countries?

It seems to be a lot more sane in countries like Germany, Finland, etc where
university doesn't require $60-150k+ in student loan debt, healthcare is free,
you actually have job stability and can't get fired without good reason, you
can work any job and support yourself, housing isn't obscenely expensive,
1.5-2 months vacation. Not to paint these countries as a paradise because of
course they have their problems too, but I wonder what Europeans think when
they read articles like this?

~~~
CalRobert
As someone who moved from the US to Europe, I agree with you wholeheartedly.
Unfortunately Europe seems to be trying to become more like the US, and my
adopted home (Ireland) is an eager student.

I can't imagine going back to less than a month of PTO a year, and even that
feels skimpy.

------
motohagiography
Globalization means kids are now competing globally even for local social
mobility and they can sense it. The consequences of failure are worse than
they were, and they are running to stand still. They'll figure things out, but
it's not going to look like the past.

------
NoPicklez
I saw this growing up as a millenial absolutely, I saw it throughout years
10-12 considerably as we were doing mock job interviews and planning our year
11-12 subjects based on our proposed career prospects.

You feel pressure from your peers that if you don't know exactly what career
you want and know exactly how you are going to get there, that it's a problem.

You are pushed to plan early and to do well, it's only when push comes to
shove when you are neck deep in year 12 exams and the prospects of your
University entry scores are near, that the school insists that University
isn't the only option, and that you shouldn't be stressed because your results
don't define you as a person. It's only then do they say that.

For me the stress comes down to this, we are told to plan as early as
possible. So that if I do these subjects for years 11 & 12, and I get X mark,
I will most likely get into X University, to then graduate and get a career in
X, which will provide me with a fulfilling career/life of achievement and
success. This is the baseline, this isn't just the overachievers, everyone has
this idea.

Any hiccup along the way in this process and you feel immense stress and
anxiety that you will not be successful and happy. Because your entire
schooling/education has led up to this moment, and as a teenager you are none
the wiser that it isn't the end of the world, because it can sure feel like
it.

I should say off the back of this that I was lucky and I was able to achieve a
successful career, through the path of University.

~~~
Gibbon1
> For me the stress comes down to this, we are told to plan as early as
> possible. So that if I do these subjects for years 11 & 12, and I get X
> mark, I will most likely get into X University, to then graduate and get a
> career in X, which will provide me with a fulfilling career/life of
> achievement and success. This is the baseline, this isn't just the
> overachievers, everyone is fed this idea.

I have a friend that got a CS degree from Princeton. Went to work, found he
hated it, spent 10 years working to pay off his student loans. Paid them off
and quit.

Basically blew 15 years of his life doing what everyone told him was the
'right thing'

~~~
germinalphrase
Sure - but how can you know? I don't dread my job, but I believe I could
better my life in some ways by changing careers to make more money. I would
have specific kinds of freedom and security for my family that we don't have
right now, but there's a lot of feel fulfilled about in my current line of
work that might be lost in the change. If I knew the right path, I would have
taken it already.

~~~
NoPicklez
Well nobody can know for sure, but it's about providing an environment that
fosters the right outcome, rather than simply an outcome.

------
jf
I can relate to this article on a personal level. Even though I was
homeschooled, I grew up in the Silicon Valley during the late '90s and early
'00s and felt a lot of pressure from my peers and their parents to "succeed"

Two clear memories stick with me from those times:

\- A visual image of my education as a Saturn-V type rocket, but with no
destination in mind.

\- A strong desire to make myself a shirt with a picture of a Golden Calf that
was simply labeled "Education"

------
40acres
This article goes very well with the recent NYT "Relentless Parenting" story
[0].

If you live in America, its not surprising that once you reach the age where
you can think in-depth about your future and the consequences of "failing"
that an existential sense of dread may loom over you.

School age kids have to worry about the pressures related to school and
getting into a good college, college students have the pressure of college and
debt. Millennials are dealing with high college debt, a substandard labor
market overall, and high rent. Middle aged folks are dealing with rising
healthcare costs for their children and parents, along with debt and other
issues. It just goes on and on.

There might have been an idea in the 50s that by the turn of the century most
Americans could escape the rat race, but it's probably just gotten worse.

0: [https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/25/upshot/the-
relentlessness...](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/25/upshot/the-
relentlessness-of-modern-parenting.html)

------
fallingfrog
Also see another article today titled “US is an oligarchy, not a democracy”.
Let’s put 2 and 2 together folks

------
fallingfrog
I mean, teenage angst, midlife crisis, and elder depression are not separate
disorders, or really disorders at all. They are natural reactions to an insane
world.

------
Jedd
> While on a youth retreat with my church...

For a secular person - the proverbial outside looking in - this sounds like a
significant conflating factor.

Kids are especially vulnerable to suggestion, and any group that preaches the
likelihood of eternal unpleasantness is _not_ likely to engender mental
tranquility.

------
DyslexicAtheist
I think kids _absorb_ a lot of the pressure their parents are in. people today
deal with a lot more insecurity (jobs/financial etc) than in the 80ies or
before, while the leisure / off-time now is reduced to being on a screen. Add
the screen time the kids themselves are exposed to (minus the exercise they
used to have before the "digital revolution") got to add up. Looking at what
many eat today (fast or pre-cooked stuff rather than home-cooked and more
sugar is gotta have some effect). Hyper-connectivity is killing us I think.

------
danielor
As a related aside, kids can often reflect their parents anxiety. Adults are
super stressed and anxious about the future, and I am sure that is having a
noticeable effect on children.

------
clairity
on one hand, it would be easy to dismiss the issues noted in the article as
first-world problems, but it lays bare the intersection of technology-induced
anxiety and economic realism affecting not just kids, but the larger culture
in the US.

as an economy, we are prosperous, but to achieve even a meager share in any of
that prosperity feels increasingly hopeless. the future depends on making
uncomfortable changes, opposed by the rich and powerful, that lead to a little
more just and equitable world.

------
ismail
Question:

1\. Anyone considering or practicing unschooling/self directed education [0]
for your children?

2\. Were you home schooled/unschooled/practiced self directed education ?

What’s your story?

I am Considering this approach. Just finished reading free to learn [1] and
Peter gray makes a compelling case for this approach. Also the documentary
“schooling the world” covers some of the chilling effects of compulsory
schooling. [2] it has made me seriously question our current education system.

Thoughts?

[0]
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unschooling](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unschooling)

[1] [https://www.amazon.com/Free-Learn-Unleashing-Instinct-
Self-R...](https://www.amazon.com/Free-Learn-Unleashing-Instinct-Self-
Reliant/dp/0465025994)

[2] [https://schoolingtheworld.org](https://schoolingtheworld.org)

[https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XLSIgZWNR9M](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XLSIgZWNR9M)

~~~
goodoldboys
I'm considering it. I went to public school my entire life but I've spent the
better part of the last decade with self-directed learning (programming).

I think it's that combined with my belief that our current educational model
is broken and inefficient (as well as articles like these) that makes me want
to explore unschooling more. Thanks for sharing these links.

~~~
ismail
thanks. What do you think is broken with the current model?

Added an Ask Hn for the question.

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18878153](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18878153)

------
robbrit
Seems to me like we've gone too far down the "add more schooling" solution to
a changing world. This approach tries to anticipate what will be in demand for
the 40-50 years after these kids graduate from high school and enter the work
force; that is a pipe dream.

A shift to different skills would be more preferable: skills like creativity,
adaptability, ability to learn new things. A worker who can adapt easily to a
new world will be much better suited to navigate life than one who is educated
in a single career path.

These skills are not new, nor is economic and technological change. My grandpa
developed these skills early on and used them to great advantage through all
the recessions and technological change of the 1970's and 80's. He did quite
well for himself, despite not doing anything related to his formal education.

------
jancsika
> They’re constantly stressed, and they’re growing aware that there’s no
> payoff for it all.

If that's true then one would expect to see _lots_ of misbehavior,
insubordination, and absurdist pranks. At least that the usual escape valve
for that age and that problem.

Do we see those kinds of problems with this generation?

~~~
kaitai
With this generation, pranks and insubordination are often dealt with by the
school police officer! When I was in high school, I got a talking-to at most,
or a blind eye because I was a "good kid". Now my old high school has a lot
more law enforcement presence.

~~~
jancsika
I'm thinking more along the lines of christmas-treeing the state administered
IQ test. I remember a classmate doing that in high school.

It was as if a bunch of ostensible gang members met a real gang member who
showed them they were only ever singing and dancing in a musical about gangs.

------
bigmit37
I seem to have this fleeting anxiety with me all the time that gets triggered
very easily. It seems as if part of me mind is always focused on my body
sensations and goes off when I try to focus my mind off my body. I’m also
triggered by any thoughts of illness or falling sick. Just reading about how
anxiety can cause problems in this thread triggered me. I’ve tried myriad of
medications and therapy such as CBT, talk therapy, hypnosis , yoga, Chinese
herbal medicine , accupuncture, Ayurvedic treatments, SSRIs, benzos, Xanax,
remeron, risperdol etc. Even exercise doesn’t really help.

I’m currently on a very low dose of Prozac for sleep. Most medications help
with sleep at the very least.

I still need to try a SNRI but after that I need may try some hallucinogens as
I’ve never done so, and people seem to be responding well to it.

I’m currently late 30s and don’t have any physical problems but in the back of
my mind I’m always afraid I’m going to get sick soon. I eat bowl of veggies
with every meal now, I do yoga prayanamic exercises in the morning and I try
to walk daily or almost daily.

As for anxiety ,

I’m not sure if it’s due to my childhood (Dad was abusive and very angry ) or
if it’s genetic. My dad has cooled down now so my relationship with him is
okay. I don’t have any flashbacks or anything so I’m assuming my problem is
genetic?

Nonetheless, I want to feel some what normal. Part of me wants to go into the
health field just to understand what’s going on in the body and have more
control. I also want to reverse aging as I feel like I missed out a lot of my
earlier years due to anxiety.

I only started programming a couple of years ago and would need to become much
better at data mining , machine learning to be of help to researchers. Though
I’m really curious about lab work as well and really would like more
biochemistry, microbiology etc. Ideally I would to get I knowledge in both. It
seems most researchers have decades a of knowledge though and not sure if I
can be of any help. I’m very curious about these science fields and like to
watch moocs to build my knowledge.

------
GauntletWizard
Feedback on learning has a very long feedback cycle. With the speed of which
we are making changes to society, education has tried to keep up, but it was
off the rails before we entered our modern technology Accelerando. The
additional speed has only hurt it further.

~~~
randomdata
I would suggest that it fundamentally cannot keep up.

In the olden days you would start working on the family farm as soon as you
were old enough to walk. This is where the life lessons were learned.
Schooling was meant only to broaden horizons into more theoretical subjects
that were not directly applicable to every day life.

But with our newfound fear of having children work every so often (to the
point that is illegal for most children to work; children of farmers working
on the family farm remaining one of the few exceptions), they no longer have a
place to learn about everyday life. They only get the theoretical, and it ends
there. Then, in their 20s, they're spit out into the real world and all of a
sudden have to figure out the life lessons that were once given over the span
of decades under the guidance of a caregiver.

We have attempted to try to bring practical lessons to school, but as anyone
who is an adult knows, there is simply no replacement for actual experience.
Everything you think you have learned about it ends up being completely
different once you live it.

~~~
watwut
I think that you are idealzing a bit outcomes of children in the past. They
had their own set if problems - including higher violence and criminality
rates and alcoholism etc.

~~~
randomdata
Violence and crime rates are down due to the reduce use of lead in gasoline.
Alcoholism seems to be down due to much greater difficulty in being able to
drink (can't drive the bar anymore without fear of stiff penalties) and
greater information.

But I don't think I am idealizing anything. The benefits of having a job when
you are young are abundantly clear, and remain abundantly clear for those who
still do so today. There is no reason why children cannot work and also have
pursuits that are useful in other areas. It is not an either-or situation.
They do not need to be full-time jobs. There is plenty of time for other
pursuits.

~~~
watwut
I had job as teenager. There was no obvious long term benefit and no short
term benefit except a bit money more. It did not harmed me either except being
unable to do certain activities I wanted to (which would gabe me more back
then, but not more enough to regret it too much).

You can't explain all past farms violence by lead, that explains violence peek
in 1990. The past rural situations and societiés in general were not nearly as
idyllic as people make them be.

------
HellDunkel
quite shocked those kids receive their grades by an app. here in germany we
have this discussion on whether to have computers/phones in classrooms. i’d
say no to all of that- except for computer programming classes.

~~~
sdinsn
How is getting grades with an app different than getting grades via paper?

~~~
HellDunkel
first, there should be a teacher to personally tell you if you messed up and
why. second there is a time and place for these kind of things. imagine the
teacher decides to check tests at night. do you really want your kids to
constantly check their phones instead of gettibg sleep? we have a long way to
go with that tech...

~~~
themacguffinman
Giving feedback on what you messed up and why is pretty straightforward to do
electronically.

It's also unlikely (or at least unnecessary) that electronic grades are
released immediately after the teacher marks a test.

~~~
germinalphrase
I am a teacher. Our marks are immediately available once I have entered them
in the online grade book.

------
b_tterc_p
I think it’s largely constant reinforcement that kids aren’t especially great.
90% of people are in the bottom 90%. A lot of our culture is pushing people to
think that it’s either best or worst.

A lot of of young adult stuff commiserates in this, celebrating the tacit
knowledge that you’ll eventually fail. So many memes are about feeling how you
secretly suck. Or how they can do one relevant task well but fail at basic
fundamentals.

I also think this is mostly a mindset issue caused by worrying parents
constantly demonstrating why you need to be better.

------
bg4
A great book, imho, on this very subject is: How to Raise an Adult by Julie
Lythcott-Haims. I can't believe the level of material and amount of work for
my poor 4th grader. She's doing hours and hours of homework every night and
she's 10. Talk about diminishing returns!

[https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23168823-how-to-raise-
an...](https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23168823-how-to-raise-an-adult)

------
djnnskja
This is very worrying because, according to Dr. Gabor Mate, there is strong
evidence that stress in kids impacts brain development and leads to conditions
like ADD and addiction.

Dr. Mate's claims resonate with my personal experience (stress and lack of
emotional support as a kid leading to ADD and other psychological problems). I
recently found out about Dr. Mate's work, and if you are familiar with this
work I would be interested in hearing your opinion on it.

------
gwbas1c
The article describes the problems with getting a notification, at any point
in the day, about grades.

Probably one of my biggest disappointments with Android is that it's still
hard to regulate notifications.

One of my bigger disappointments with modern American culture is that we don't
push back on interruptions enough.

~~~
rchaud
You may want to look into an Android phone that has "Do Not Disturb" on. It
will hide notifications from showing on the statusbar. So unless you
explicitly open that app, you won't know if there's a notification to be had.

I have a Nokia 6.1 with Android 9.0. The other day, I actually missed some
important messages because I had DND turned on, thinking it was the same thing
as silent mode.

------
superphil0
sorry for the self promotion, but because it fits so well: This is exactly
what we are trying to solve with Pocketcoach:
[https://www.pocketcoach.co/](https://www.pocketcoach.co/)

------
i_cant_speel
Can the title be changed to something that's more descriptive and not click
bait?

------
SirLJ
Frankly, I wish my college kid is at least a bit worried for his future... to
me him and his friends are all spoiled, wanting for nothing, happy go lucky,
with no clear idea what the real life looks like...

------
giacaglia
[http://southpark.cc.com/clips/nr2bie/everyone-has-
anxiety](http://southpark.cc.com/clips/nr2bie/everyone-has-anxiety)

------
fromthestart
>All of them said they voluntarily get their grades pushed to their phones
through notifications. It took me a minute to realize just how annoying and
agonizing that must feel. It means that at any moment, they could find out
they bombed a test or missed an assignment. Instead of having the time to
mentally prepare to receive a bad grade

Our lives have gotten _so easy_ that we now write articles about how push
notifications of grades "consumes" children with anxiety.

Here's an idea. Maybe kids are more anxious these days because instead of,
especially in the case of faux adversity like going to school, teaching them
to be strong, we legitimize their anxiety, and worse, take them to doctors who
prescribe them with unnecessary drugs for what amounts to normal and healthy
teenage angst.

Here's another idea. It's normal for life to get a little scary when you're
starting puberty. And giving young kids terrifying materials like "43 pages
long" course registration manuals (the horror!) is an opportunity to teach
young teens the value in planning ahead and taking control of one's life. We
shouldn't normalize their anxiety over making decisions and commitments - it's
a year of schoolwork! Big deal! Just wait until real life!

What's the problem? If we don't expose these kids to stress and teach them to
accept it as part of normal life, they'll grow into helpless, anxiety ridden
adults, as I seem to see among many of my contemporaries, perpetual children
in their late 20s who do not understand commitment or forsight.

Given that this is from vox, I can't help but notice themes in common with
nonsense like toxic masculinity - this is all opportunity to begin on a path
of success from an earlier age, and instead of celebrating it, vox predictably
avoids the celebration of achievement and complains that it's too hard and
we're scaring our poor children with talk of futures and grades!

The rift in our country starts here. At the divide between collectivism and
individualism. But what vox et al. fail to understand is that when you
vehemently shun individualism and achievement, instead focusing excessively on
minimizing difficulty, your collective will fail, as those that exist within
it become increasingly incompetent.

~~~
kaitai
It's interesting that I agree with you at a few key points, but utterly
disagree with your post in a few other places. Agree: "The rift in our country
starts here. At the divide between collectivism and individualism."
Interestingly, I think the problems described in the article are entirely from
the whole-hearted embrace of individualism that America has fallen into. There
is not communal or collective effort at all; these kids are told that they
need to be fighting each other in the stack ranking of life for the next 18-65
years. No one will take care of them if they get sick or injured -- they need
to save for that, and saving requires a good-paying job, which requires the
right career path, which requires optimizing your class schedule in 8th grade
and not accruing a police record for tipping cows or outhouses or, God forbid,
spreading a little nitrogen triiodide in the high school hallway as a prank.
That'll get you a terrorism charge.

In some sense I again agree with your first paragraph: "Our lives have gotten
so easy that..." and the note about "faux adversity". I think we'd all be more
mentally healthy if we spent more time in the woods or desert, where Nature
doesn't care about your GPA or your career cluster, but you can truly test
yourself against physical reality. Heck, even weightlifting can provide a
touch of that. But again, it's not faux adversity when you see your parents
missing mortgage payments because of the government shutdown and you realize
that they went to college & did everything "right" and yet because they're not
5%-ers in the US your life in the good school district is precarious. It's not
faux adversity when you see your parents get the $24,000 bill (after
insurance!) for a broken arm from Zuckerberg Hospital. This is created
adversity. We have created a system in which there is no floor and no escape
from debts. All rests on the individual, and if you get old, or sick before
you're old, you're f*(&ed.

~~~
feistypharit
"Interestingly, I think the problems described in the article are entirely
from the whole-hearted embrace of individualism that America has fallen into.
There is not communal or collective effort at all;"

Totally agree. The every man for himself is a very harsh system to live in.

------
robohoe
This thread is making me depressed about the future.

------
fallingfrog
I feel like this author of this article is _this close_ to developing a
working class consciousness..

------
netwanderer3
It sounds like parents are really the ones who need to be treated, not those
kids.

------
rrggrr
The data does not support OP's article. Here's a good synopsis of what the
data does say courtesy of Joe Rogan's show.

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CI6rX96oYnY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CI6rX96oYnY)

~~~
alehul
This doesn't address OP's article's main point, aside from the backhand
comment of "it's not social media," which is meant more so as clickbait and
doesn't pertain much to the article's point of what _does_ cause the anxiety.

------
gene_vache
“why kids are consumed with worry” .. too much social media?

------
rconti
Training kids to be Sysadmins, smart.

------
bluntfang
"Cutting down on fat" is not sound diet advice and is rooted in the "fat
macro-nutrient = fat on my body" falsehood. I'm glad you are seeing success,
but please don't post about things you don't know enough about.

~~~
Aeolun
Please don’t post ‘you are wrong’ without supplying the correct information
either.

I’m now left wondering what the actual situation around fat is.

~~~
mandelbrotwurst
The short version is that your body needs a balance of all three
macronutrients - protein, fats, and carbohydrates, and that starving it of any
is unhealthy. Parent would probably suggest focusing on calories in / out
rather than minimizing fats.

~~~
barry-cotter
This is also untrue. You can live in perfect health on fat and protein alone.
Humans can’t make the essential amino acids necessary for making some proteins
so we need to eat protein, and there are a number of vitamins that are fat/oil
but not water soluble so we need at least some fat but a no carbohydrate diet
with sufficient fat is fine as long as you get enough fat. If you only eat
lean meat that will be bad for you.

[http://www.diagnosisdiet.com/all-meat-
diets/](http://www.diagnosisdiet.com/all-meat-diets/)

> To my mind, examples of real people eating mostly-meat diets for long
> periods of time gives us much more powerful information about meat and
> health than conventional scientific studies conducted over short periods of
> time in which one group of people eats a little more meat or a few extra
> servings of vegetables than another group of people.

> Meet the Meat Mongers

> The Inuit of the Canadian Arctic thrived on fish, seal, walrus and whale
> meat. The Chukotka of the Russian Arctic lived on caribou meat, marine
> animals and fish. The Masai, Samburu, and Rendille warriors of East Africa
> survived on diets consisting primarily of milk and meat. The steppe nomads
> of Mongolia ate mostly meat and dairy products. The Sioux of South Dakota
> enjoyed a diet of buffalo meat. The Brazilian Gauchos nourished themselves
> with beef.

[https://swizec.com/blog/week-17-what-happens-when-you-
only-e...](https://swizec.com/blog/week-17-what-happens-when-you-only-eat-
meat-for-a-year/swizec/6534)

[http://m.jbc.org/content/87/3/651.full.pdf](http://m.jbc.org/content/87/3/651.full.pdf)

~~~
mandelbrotwurst
Interesting, thanks for sharing that.

------
dickmoves
So, just a quick forecast (my personal hypothesis) of what this will lead to,
short term: _really_ bad, _profoundly_ ugly drug epidemics.

And we have seen bad. We’re in the middle of a bad one.

But ten years down the line, we’ll see a new generation show up, pent up and
ready to explode. And drug dealers will be there, ready to harvest some cash.

Every tightly wound miserable kid you see today is going to find a way to lash
out or somehow escape tomorrow, and most of the time, with regular people,
that takes the shape of getting annihilated as quickly and easily as possible.
In part, self destruction as revenge for vicarious ambition on the part of
authority figures. In part to literally render demanded performance an
impossibility, whether for spite or not.

Probably nothing can fix this. The die is cast. Public schools in the United
States are on a collision course with a transformative upheaval not unlike
what we’ve witnessed with the decaying husk of the formerly behemoth United
States Postal Service.

Actually, on second thought, we’ve been standing face to face with it, if you
consider how school shootings mirror “disgruntled postal workers” “going
postal” in the 1990’s, just prior to the sensational media coverage of school
shootings in particular.

No end in sight. C’est la vie.

------
peterwwillis
If we could stop telling kids they need to go to school, and instead tell them
why they should want to, that might reduce the stress of having to perform
well.

If you don't go to school, _you will not die in a gutter._ But if you do go to
school, _you will be very well prepared for life._ Tell this to your kids.

~~~
mrguyorama
>If you don't go to school, you will not die in a gutter.

America does not have a sufficient safety net for this to be true

~~~
DATACOMMANDER
Care to provide an example of someone (literally or figuratively) dying in a
gutter in the US within the last few years? I’m talking about someone dying of
hunger or exposure here, not overdosing.

~~~
eli_gottlieb
This happened just last year: [https://www.necn.com/news/new-england/Mans-
Death-Spotlights-...](https://www.necn.com/news/new-england/Mans-Death-
Spotlights-Winter-Struggles-of-Homeless-469823853.html)

~~~
DATACOMMANDER
The article says that the man’s drinking “played a significant role” in his
death. I don’t buy the idea that he slept outside only because there literally
wasn’t enough room for him in the shelter. If that were truly the case, more
than one homeless person would have died in that area for the same reason, and
it would have been a major national story.

~~~
eli_gottlieb
We had a bunch of people die in Boston during that same cold snap for lack of
space in shelters. What makes you think the nation was or will be _so_
scandalized by a bunch of homeless nobodies dying of exposure?

~~~
DATACOMMANDER
Okay, a few things. First, while my original question _was_ partly rhetorical,
I’m always willing to change my beliefs based on new information, so if you
can provide a citation for the claim that a bunch of people died of exposure
in Boston due to insufficient shelter space, I’ll stand fully corrected and
admit that it does happen in the US. Second, if that’s indeed the case, I find
it appalling. Finally, assuming it still happens, I’m still very inclined to
believe that it’s both extremely rare—like one in a hundred thousand or even a
million people per year—and much rarer than it was, say, 100 years ago. (I
have no idea what the rate was in 1919, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was
something crazy like one in a thousand or even higher. If we go back 200
years, a rate of 1-2% wouldn’t surprise me.)

