

How To Win As Second Mover - eladgil
http://blog.eladgil.com/2012/10/how-to-win-as-second-mover.html

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lazyjones
Is Google really "winning" with Android (example in the article)? Sure, they
have more smartphone deployments, but are they even earning any money with it?
Most likely nowhere near what Apple makes in that market.

~~~
lquist
Exactly. It's kind of embarrassing how much of the profit pool Apple has.

This article ([http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/05/03/with-8-8-market-
share...](http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/05/03/with-8-8-market-share-apple-
has-73-of-cell-phone-profits/)), though a bit outdated, show how insanely
lopsided this market is: Apple has 8.8% of the market of worldwide mobile
phones, yet makes 73% of the profit pool.

(An interesting note: Apple + Samsung combined make 99% of the profit pool)!

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aidenn0
Does the first mover ever win, absent a government sanctioned monopoly?

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eladgil
eBay, Yahoo!, Amazon, Craigs List, are all examples of first movers in their
particular markets.

In general, I mean "second mover" more generically. I.e. what do you do if
someone already has a strong or growing market position? How can you beat
them?

~~~
wtvanhest
eBay - maybe this one, but there was other eCommerce before them. Yahoo! -
Definitely not the first search engine, also not a "winner". See Wandex.
Craig's List - It may have been first, but it is unlikely it was the first
"online classifieds" since it wasn't started unti l998. (I believe 1995 he
started an email distribution though).

The point is, for every company that is a first mover that we know of, there
were usually lots of others started before it that failed. There are a number
of academic papers on the subject, one was called something like "First mover
disadvantage".

~~~
acgourley
I think you guys only disagree on what constitutes a first mover. You consider
a company who has simply launched as a mover. Although he doesn't explicitly
say it, I believe Elad only does so if the company has real traction.

Actually your definition of a first mover isn't useful, as very few companies
would fit it.

~~~
eladgil
Agreed. I am implicitly implying a lack of strong incumbents and a degree of
real traction rather then "has anyone ever tried anything remotely similar".

~~~
wtvanhest
You guys make good points and you changed my mind. I think you guys took the
more logical route on this than I.

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sopooneo
I listened to an interesting podcast (Under the Influence?) a while back about
first movers that lost out to their copycats. One famous example? Hydrox
cookies. They were the original.

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrox>

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hcarvalhoalves
The comparison between iPhone and Android doesn't make sense. iPhone is a
particular product, Android is just software licensed to 3rd parties. It
doesn't amaze me there are more _deployments_ of phones with Android than
iPhones, it's pretty obvious in fact.

Android is a second mover maybe if compared to Windows Mobile or other systems
licensed to manufacturers.

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jongs
International markets makes sense only if there is a clear path to
monetization or the potential acquirer has interests oversees

