
It’s probably time to learn Chinese - dsr12
https://medium.com/@wheatpond/its-probably-time-to-learn-chinese-63587376c2d2
======
badrabbit
Hate to be a naysayer but I disagree. English is used in international
dealings and is spoken in a very large number of countries due to the british
empire's wide reach and influence compounded by americas dominance after WW2.

Mandarin is a great language to learn in as much as Japanese,French and German
are. Japan has long had a strong economy and exports a large number of
goods,same with France and Germany except their colonial past and EU
leadership positions makes their languages profitable to learn.

China wants to influence the world and be the dominant super power.
however,much like Japan and Korea,they are not interested in expanding their
cultural reach. Westerners wanted everyone to dress like them,speak like them
and act like them -- the "civilized" way. Sharing your culture eventually
leads to immigration and the cultural influence of others impacting yours.
Their ambition is purely for the success and prosperity of their own
people,not a "manifest destiny" conquest and as such I strongly suspect they
have little desire to force others to speak mandarin.

What I'm trying to say is that while Mandarin has good ROI if you learn
it,even 50 years from now it will likely still be comparable to learning
French,German,Arabic and similar languages,and even then only if you deal with
international trade and relations (or read tech/science publications -- seen
some great write ups from Korean and Japanese security researchers FYI).

Mandarin should not be thought of a replacement for english but rather a
complement. I can see a future where people speak both languages for academia
and international relations.

~~~
shanghaiaway
50 years from now, Mandarin will be much more useful than Arabic or French,
because it will be the largest market in the world. If you deal with China
professionally, knowing Mandarin will be an advantage.

~~~
BuckRogers
Markets are unifying, eg the EU, in reaction to large nations like the US and
China. It's extremely unlikely in 50 years that things are as you described. A
bi-polar Chinese and US world will accelerate single market pacts. These mega
nations are likely spelling the end of the nation state as a useful concept,
which after regional market pacts leads to world government. Trump is a last
battle cry against globalism, but it can't be stopped. US and Chinese power
guarantees it.

~~~
shanghaiaway
China will pass the US as the largest market within five years so what I'm
saying is certain to happen.

Sure, as a regular boring American 9-5er you won't need it but if you want
something more from life you better learn a language and Mandarin is
objectively going to be the most useful.

~~~
votepaunchy
Within 5 years India will overtake China as the world’s most populated
country, and Africa is expected to reach 4 billion by the end of the century.
China’s moment is now, not 50 years from now.

~~~
shanghaiaway
Africa is not a country.

~~~
balt_s
Where would you rather live and work: a random African country, or China? Does
this answer change in 50 years?

~~~
BuckRogers
Most people are going to think because China is more advanced in ways, or some
sort of admiration for Chinese history and ethnic creations, that the obvious
answer is China. I would disagree. Outside of a few war-torn failed states, a
random African country for me.

Not as many stories about people jumping out of factory windows to end their
lives in Africa. There are many hidden gems in Africa as well with perfect
climates and cultures that have little to no thievery or need for distrust.
These things aren't well-known or stereotypical because Africa is dismissed
outright so quickly by so many without further investigation, but it's true
anyway.

In 50 years, I think this will remain true and Africa becomes even more
desirable yet than China. If you want to work, or want your less fortunate
children to work at Foxconn pumping out iPhones with management practices that
westerners cannot even imagine at this point in their history, China may be an
option if they'd even welcome you. Of course everyone assumes they'll be the
boss at the desk browsing HN or scrolling through Facebook during the workday
instead, generally enjoying the good life.

Africa. This isn't even a contest.

------
KerrickStaley
I disagree with this article (and I've spent 8 years learning Mandarin part-
time). English is far more valuable in business and scientific contexts, and
the cost of becoming proficient in Mandarin is considerable (1000s of hours
before it's useful in a non-trivial way). And I expect things to remain that
way within the next 100 years.

Mandarin + English is not a very distinctive skillset: you're competing with
millions of native Chinese who also speak English, plus millions of Chinese
diaspora who learn Mandarin as a second language from a young age either
through their parents or in a Chinese school.

Also, "fun point" 1 in the article is wrong. Chinese is hard. The hardest
parts (for me) are memorizing characters and understanding colloquial speech
(colloquial speech is very informal and different from written Chinese).
Remembering tones is also hard for me, and some people also have trouble
pronouncing tones and consonants (but I got that part pretty easily).

As an aside, why do I learn Mandarin, then? A few reasons:

\- I think it's intellectually stimulating.

\- I have a personal goal of learning a foreign language and I think Mandarin
is one of the best to learn.

\- It allows you to travel and experience Taiwan and China in a way that you
otherwise couldn't.

\- I might live abroad in Taiwan or China some day.

\- Maybe I'm completely wrong and it will actually be economically valuable to
me in some significant way in the future. It _has_ been valuable in some ways
since my company partners with Taiwanese and Chinese companies and I've used
the language in to help me navigate business trips and also (very)
occasionally for technical communication. But I think I could have been almost
equally successful without knowing any Chinese.

~~~
jason_slack
I have been learning Chinese for 4 years now. I can read and write well but my
speaking always sounds awkward. I traveled to Xiamen for 2 months and knowing
Chinese made things a lot easier. There was still struggles because often
times colloquial speech was difficult for me to understand right away and also
locals didn't always understand my speaking because they weren't used to
someone speaking and it not sounding correct. My friends explains that to them
I am speaking jibberish if my tones aren't perfect. They aren't taking the
time to step back and think about what I meant to say. I love learning
Chinese. I learn something new every day.

~~~
KerrickStaley
Download Pimsleur's Mandarin III and spend time going through that. Pay close
attention to how you sound vs how the recorded speaker sounds.

~~~
jason_slack
Thank you!

------
BuckRogers
The canary in the coal mine here is that you have to keep practicing language
or you lose it.

All of that effort is admirable and intellectually interesting but if you have
no one to regularly speak with when you leave China, it's not a good use of
time and effort. Unless one never wants to return to their home country, or
marries a native.

He's right about French. It's probably my favorite language, I lived and
worked in France for some time. You will generally not be encouraged and will
definitely not be welcomed as one of them, ever. It's a very pervasive
attitude. I vowed to learn no more of their language. Which is not a problem,
I'd have to really go out of my way to find someone I wanted to speak with
anyway.

Outside of special cases, the only language that I've identified as a no
brainer for an American or Brit is Spanish. Both of us have very good reasons,
and plenty of people to regularly speak with. They're also very open and
welcoming people, at least Latin Americans. Over the next 30 years there will
be a rising power from Latin America as well, most likely Mexico. A nation
that will soon overtake its mother country's GDP, and is predicted by some,
including George Friedman, to be challenging the US for North American
leadership by the year 2100. Mexico in particular is China's anti-matter. If
anything happens to detail their progress, Mexico benefits tremendously.
They've always competed to supply the US market.

Ultimately none of that matters, you still need daily interaction with a
language to maintain it. It's key and for many of us, that would be difficult
with Mandarin. I'm with him though on the value and interest otherwise, but
long-term, thinking decades or even just years out, an inpractical choice for
most native English speakers.

~~~
amaccuish
> You will generally not be encouraged and will definitely not be welcomed as
> one of them, ever.

I study French, German and Russian at Uni. I am completely with you. As much
as I love the French language, I will not keep up my knowledge of it after
graduation. I've rarely had a positive experience of real french use, compared
to almost every time with Russians and Germans.

~~~
BuckRogers
That doesn't surprise me, and I really don't blame you. I heard a lot of
things, but in particular one coworker (in France), said that Quebecois speak
"like they're retarded". If you can't win as a native French-Canadian, then
it's not possible. For comparison, in my 36 years I've never heard a single
(fellow-)American refer to any other accent, dialect or second language
learner of English as sounding retarded. Which, knowing my own country, is
pretty surprising to me as a revelation. Contrary to popular belief, I think
people here are more open and accepting than many others. I've spent most of
my life around some classless, low-life people too.

Not to mention comments about other French speaking people, "la petite Belge",
other diminishing comments. I've never seen such a superiority/inferiority
complex, and I've seen some seriously challenged compatriots in my own
country. I do have many friends in France who are exceptions, very open
individuals, and love the countryside. These memories remind me of my time in
Moscow, a Portuguese kid was there, and told me that I was working in the
"wrong country" (France). The French guy there, who had previously told me
"France was BS", and was in Russia mostly to shmooze with Russian women,
perked up and asked "do you know where I am from?", suddenly defensive of the
homeland. Maybe I'm too critical of the French, I don't know, I want to always
be objective for sure, but I noticed the majority of other European
nationalities tended to agree or already hold views that I was building up to
with my experiences. Unlike the original blogger of this article, I'm not
afraid of appearing insensitive or blunt, as long as it's an objective reality
with some merit. Always some truth behind stereotypes (where there's smoke,
there's fire!), positive and negative for all of us.

Ultimately though, the proof of my feelings are in the results, my speaking
French is admiration and a favor for their culture and civilization. Like you.
It didn't really open up any doors for me. I was brought to France to work
with little knowledge in French. I don't have to do it, it was me being a
curious, good person, extending an olive branch. I will speak English in
France if I want to now. I'm not sour (I have no reason to be), but given what
I know, I won't feed into further glorification. Any time spent on language
will be spent on improving my Spanish instead, which has opened up a much
larger world for me. Useful vacation, retirement and remote work spots are
more accessible around the world, and a shocking number of people in the US
speak it. It's nice to be able to listen in!

------
jklepatch
I have been living in Asia for 8years and I have learned Chinese. Initially
because i thought it would help me to thrive professionally in Asia.

I am happy I learned Chinese, however I wished I had done it for the right
reasons. i.e to do something intellectually interesting.

Professionally, your time is way better invested in learning a tech skill,
developing a business or expanding your network. Those are the thing that you
can leverage.

Chinese language abilities? Not so much. Apart from the exaggerated
congratulations of chinese speakers after they hear you speaking 2 words of
Chinese, it wont provide you much business wise. Remember that if for any
position chinese language is important, they will just hire a local, never a
foreigner...

~~~
Kagerjay
I disagree with this statement

If you live in heavily populated Asian communities, there are a lot of
business oppurtunities, specifically in Mandarin. For instance, a law firm
specialized in one ethnicity. You'll find a lot of well off wealthy Chinese
clients coming overseas starting businesses in America. Controversally, if you
do any overseas importing, you'll have a larger selection of manufacturers to
work with if you speak Mandarin.

I don't speak Mandarin all that well though, granted I speak Cantonese and
studied 3 years of Japanese. I do agree that your time is better spent
learning a tech skill though.

------
baylearn
Why is Hong Kong (predominantly Cantonese speaking) used as the image for an
article about the need to learn Mandarin? Most people in HK do not speak
Mandarin natively (although English is spoken almost everywhere here).

~~~
kensai
Nice catch, but the title is also about learning Chinese, not Mandarin in
particular. But indeed in the text you see Mandarin...

------
whoisjuan
Everyone knows that Chinese is hard. "Hard" is of course subjective, but I
think everyone can objectively say that English is easier than Chinese. In
fact, easier than most languages.

For that very reason, Chinese doesn't have the potential or practicality to
become a default language.

~~~
iforgotpassword
For reading and writing I agree, but just the language itself definitely not.
At least not objectively, but how do you define that anyways?

~~~
lern_too_spel
Consider that you can improve your conversational English by just reading more
on your own. This is much more difficult in languages with logographic writing
systems.

------
mikestew
Just like bell bottoms, this little nugget from the Seventies is back, I see.
Same arguments, too, almost point-for-point. “Most speakers”, “large emerging
market”, yada, yada. Just like the 70s, if you’re trying to sell Coke in
China, might want to learn some Mandarin. OTOH, if you’re selling Coke in
Greece...

Of course, things have changed over the years, but if anything they’ve changed
toward a much more homogeneous world and I argue that learning any form of
Chinese to be potentially less useful than forty years ago. If you don’t do
business in China, what need is there to learn Chinese? And if you _do_
business there, well duh, you might want to learn some of the local language
like you would anywhere else.

------
Gys
It will probably not be very long anymore before we can use tools for instant
translation between major languages. See for example:
[https://www.skype.com/en/features/skype-
translator/](https://www.skype.com/en/features/skype-translator/) It might not
be perfect, but learning Chinese perfectly will be very hard as well.

~~~
posterboy
It's not hard, past a certain age, it's pretty much impossible to get anywhere
near proficiency.

And, since cultural aspects inform the language, it pretty much depends on
what you want to say, whether the machine can translate it or not. Hence,
machine translation is missing a large part of the reason to learn another
language, and I don't even subscribe to the sapir-whorff hypothesis.

------
grizzles
I just installed Pleco but I wish there was some more app suggestions. I've
dabbled in trying to learn Chinese but I've never found a great app for it.

The insight I gained from learning to speak Japanese. -> Chinese characters
are hard. So I'd very much prefer a language learning system that focused
entirely on spoken Chinese rather than written Chinese.

------
badpun
Investments of Chinese capital outside Chine are now greater than the foreign
investments coming into China. If you're going to work in the US or Europe in
a local branch of a Chinese global company, speaking Chinese should be a big
advantage, esp. when moving up the chain of command.

------
microdrum
Quite bearish on learning Chinese; and bearish, too, on articles such as this
one. These articles are a type. You would see similar articles in 1989
regarding Japanese. That was not a worthwhile investment for most people.
Trends about a country being ‘the hot new thing’ rarely pan out. The author of
this article should know: he’s the “founder of a crypto asset manager.”

Meteoric national growth curves don’t continue; and the closed nature of these
societies tends to mean they get hamstrung by unpredictable things in the
future. No one can say why China’s growth will slow (and it already is slowing
dramatically), but we can say for sure that it will be because of a lack of
willingness to change.

Learning Chinese will be a worthwhile activity for leading Western
businesspeople when the Communist Party is abolished or faces strong open
competition for power.

~~~
KerrickStaley
Unfortunately, just because China is illiberal doesn't mean it will
necessarily fail to achieve the economic and cultural dominance that the
United States now enjoys.

China's system of government is arguably more engineered and less chaotic than
what we have here in the US, and it has the potential to continue to guide the
country on a continued upward economic trajectory. Granted, the US system
provides more competition for people and ideas in government, and China's
risks getting stuck on bad people or ideas.

I think the US and the rest of the West should be looking to China for ideas
on how to better govern and promote economic growth. But the ideas we borrow
need to be re-implemented in a democratic way instead of the authoritarian way
seen in China.

------
GauntletWizard
I'm bearish on learning Chinese. Huawei is finally being blacklisted. Alibaba
is getting nowhere in US tech as companies are being named and shamed for
operating in China. Tencent owns lots of brands, but I suspect they're next
for a big wave of backlash.

