
Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips - ytch
https://sparrowsnews.com/2020/08/07/after-september-15-no-more-kirin-chips/
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acomjean
Long term I feel China is going to work around these sanctions and such and
end up completely independent of US tech.

~~~
moooo99
That'll probably happen in the long term. In the short term, China might
answer by completely banning US companies from the Chinese market.

I don't see anything to win here. Probably every large company, including
those from the US, have some kind of production facilities, storage or
supplies in China. China applying similar restrictions would probably be a
worse hit for the US than the current situation is for China.

~~~
innagadadavida
I doubt the Chinese will take any rash, knee-jerk reaction here. They are very
predictable and will stick to what is in their best interest. Since there is
no democratic government either, these decisions are not at risk of changing -
unless XiJinping loses a coop, which at this point is an impossibility.

~~~
nikofeyn
if you think about it, we have reached a time in which we are all benefiting
from china having a cool head about them and patience. it's really
highlighting the power vaccuum that's happening.

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robert_foss
This is a clear loss for consumers world wide. The Kirin SOCs were competitive
with Qualcomm, and now they practically have a monopoly again.

~~~
greatjack613
And a clear win for democratic governments who do not send dissenters to re-
training camps.

From a competitive landscape, yes it sucks. But Huawei / China needs to be
punished for its blatant IP theft, I think this is a great place to start.

~~~
greatpatton
At the same time the US caused (directly/indirectly) the death of 400-800k
people in Iraq. Somehow there is a double standard regarding human rights.

China is despicable but I think that the moral ground of the US regarding this
kind of issue is quite shaky.

~~~
greatjack613
We are a democratic country, don't support a war, vote for someone in office
who does not support it.

China on the other hand if you don't support putting muslims in concentration
camps, you end up there yourself

~~~
robert_foss
I don't think there was a vote for invading Iraq, or any of the other
countries targeted by the wrecking ball that is US hegemony.

Yes China is quite flawed, but this attempt at maintaining the status quo
really only serves to halt progress.

~~~
greatjack613
Please don't be pedantic, We do not have votes on whether the president should
sneeze into a tissue or a paper towel, but yes, the president that decided to
go to war was voted in by the majority of the population.

Please do not try to push the CCP's propaganda by knocking the United States,
it only ends one way, and that is all of us being slaves to winnie the pooh

~~~
renewiltord
I'm hardly of the opinion that the US is comparable to China, but it seems to
me that a democracy that commits a sin is somehow worse than an autocracy that
does so.

After all, if 150 million and one believe that killing a million civilians is
acceptable and is able to support carrying out that activity that means that
society is corrupt.

If 1 man believes that killing a million civilians is acceptable and is able
to carry out that activity that means that society is merely incapable of
enforcing moral will.

~~~
gruez
>but it seems to me that a democracy that commits a sin is somehow worse than
an autocracy that does so.

Isn't that what design-by-committee is? Or upper management hiring consulting
firms to "validate" a plan they already had in mind?

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mytailorisrich
China made a big mistake in being too reliant on TSMC, etc. or maybe it did
not have the capacity to go after too many targets. Or maybe it simply did not
think it could be a problem.

They are quick to learn and adapt, though, not least when the Chinese state
throws its whole weight behind something, so I'm thinking that after this
initial shock, in a few years the result will be a decline of the relative
importance of the Taiwanese semi industry because mainland China will have its
own, with all the potential strategic consequences that this might mean.

~~~
FooBarWidget
I don't think it's a mistake. It's more that they don't have a choice. There
are very few (maybe even only one?) foundries in the world with advanced
processes. Building a foundry is not trivial. For how long has Intel stuck
with 14nm now? The Dutch ASML lithography machine is one of the most advanced
machines in the world, and it's pretty much the only one of its kind. China
has been investing heavily in domestic foundries for years now, but it takes
time.

~~~
xster
I think it's just greed and poor risk management. Up until recently, china
couldn't even manufacture ball point pens (which I think only 2 companies in
the world produced). There's no money to be made at the bottom of the inverted
tech pyramid. They rather put their energy in buying ball point pens and using
those pens to write stuff that will in the short term make them more money on
to of a foundation of sand. Similarly all of the investment from giants like
Alibaba etc went into developing e-commerce on top of a tech foundation of
sand

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euix
Kirin's probably source something from U.S. designs right? Hence it's
production run must end. I am guessing this means Huawei needs to switch to a
design that is wholly originating from China (with possible input from Japan
and Korea) but right now they are not up to the level of the Kirins.

This may really just mean Xiaomi or Oppo gains an advantage over Huawei and
takes the top crown.

~~~
Nokinside
Huawei can still buy SoC with US technology in it if it's designed and
manufactured by others.

US restrictions are all about Huawei’s ability to use U.S. technology and
software to design and manufacture semiconductors abroad. BIS made targeted
rule "to impose a new control over certain foreign-produced items, when there
is knowledge that such items are destined to a designated entity on the Entity
List."

> (i) Items, such as semiconductor designs, when produced by Huawei and its
> affiliates on the Entity List (e.g., HiSilicon), that are the direct product
> of certain U.S. Commerce Control List (CCL) software and technology; and

> (ii) Items, such as chipsets, when produced from the design specifications
> of Huawei or an affiliate on the Entity List (e.g., HiSilicon), that are the
> direct product of certain CCL semiconductor manufacturing equipment located
> outside the United States. Such foreign-produced items will only require a
> license when there is knowledge that they are destined for reexport, export
> from abroad, or transfer (in-country) to Huawei or any of its affiliates on
> the Entity List.

[https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-
releases/2020/05/commerc...](https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-
releases/2020/05/commerce-addresses-huaweis-efforts-undermine-entity-list-
restricts)

~~~
euix
>Huawei can still buy SoC with US technology in it if it's designed and
manufactured by others.

I don't get it, if the U.S. wants to cripple Huawei why would they let you buy
SoC that way? The whole point I thought was that any company dealing with
Huawei that used some material proportion of U.S. originated technology to
deliver goods to Huawei had to stop. Which means in order for Huawei to build
chips it needs a supply chain that is almost completely independent of the
U.S.

The closets analogy I can think of is like building nuclear submarines. They
are notoriously hard because its not possible to globalize the supply chain,
everything in its design must be sourced within the country thus requires a
specialized supply chain.

~~~
Nokinside
US actions must be proportional and related to the damage that they attribute
to Huawei.

Even in close to lawless Trump era there WTO exists and sanctions can be
challenged and ignored by other countries if they are excessive.

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DiogenesKynikos
Trump has put the WTO out of action by blocking the appointment of judges.

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dade_
Either the PRC has overplayed their hand, or they are up to something. 2020
still has nearly 5 months to deliver more gifts.

~~~
alfiedotwtf
If you think the Trump administration has out-thought China, you need to re-
read this sentence.

~~~
whytaka
When you're a gorilla, you don't really need to think through your punches if
all you want is maximum damage.

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chvid
I thought that SMIC were producing Kirin chips:

[https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1187993.shtml](https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1187993.shtml)

~~~
bildung
When rereading the article with this in mind, Yu only announced the end of
"Kirin high end chips", not of the complete Kirin line. So I assume those are
still alive?

~~~
chvid
I don’t know this particular website but it seems like the article was angled
in a certain manner.

Here is the same story from Gizmo China:

[https://www.gizmochina.com/2020/08/07/huawei-mate40-last-
fla...](https://www.gizmochina.com/2020/08/07/huawei-mate40-last-flagship-
kirin-chipset/)

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greatpatton
Can someone provide more context about what SoC they are going to use for
their phones from now on as this is not really clear from the article.

~~~
Nokinside
Most likely MediaTek for the lower end and Qualcomm's Snapdragons for flagship
phones.

Huawei still needs license from BIS to use Snapdragons but it should be easier
to get.

~~~
greatpatton
But Qualcomm is an American company. How would they be able to sell to Huawei?

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hungryhobo
the US's goal was never to stop selling to Huawei altogether, it's to prevent
Huawei from moving up the value chain, i.e designing their own SOC. It's the
same reason why other Chinese companies like Xiaomi and Oppo are not included
in the entity list. You can bet once they starts to develop their own CPU, or
their own OS, they would be immediately placed on the entity list because of
"national security" reasons.

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euix
Lot of talk about TSMC building a plant in Wisconsin but as far as I could dig
up its basically the same as what they already have in Nanjing. A play meant
to make them appear like a neutral party.

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trynumber9
TSMC's fab is planned for Arizona, not Wisconsin.

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Ijumfs
What they're not saying is that the Chinese will have to completely shut down
many of their silicon foundries because of a lack of specialized chemicals
only available from the USA and Japan.

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gumby
Until now it hasn’t been cost effective to develop internal sources for these
supplies.

Now the US has provided an (essentially infinite) price support for domestic
production and all the infrastructure and supply chain that go along with it.

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Markoff
this news does not make sense, what chips they would use for high end
smartphones? because it can't be qualcomm

also what are they gonna use for smart watches, TV and their other products
which are powered by kirin chips? you can't replace those that easy

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bosswipe
A plausible start of WWIII would be China seizing Taiwan in order to regain
access to TSMC.

~~~
FooBarWidget
I really doubt it. China has its own fabs, they're just a few generations
behind (14nm). That "only" means their chips are not competitive in certain
contexts (heat, power), not that they can't have chips at all. They're
investing heavily in research and development. It's just a matter of time
before they catch up. There's no need to do something risky and expensive,
like starting a war over Taiwan.

And taking over Taiwan will cripple TSMC's ability to provide to anyone. The
moment they invade Taiwan, 100% of its population becomes anti-China (right
now a portion of Taiwanese are still sympathetic to the idea of
reunification). TSMC employees will revolt and the island will turn into a
perpetual guerilla war zone. How do you produce chips in such an environment?

I still think WWIII could plausibly happen, just not because of TSMC.

~~~
MrBuddyCasino
Not to mention that Taiwan will trigger the explosive devices that they have
embedded into infrastructure and manufacturing plants. China may coerce
Taiwanese scientists, but won’t find a functioning chip fab to use.

~~~
molszanski
Hmm. Where can learn more about this deterrence measure?

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MrBuddyCasino
If you expect a map with locations marked X, well good luck. This is just a
long-standing rumor, as these things are obviously kept secret, but the fact
that both west-germany and switzerland did this (we actually have hard
evidence) to stop advancing soviet forces in the event of war makes this very
credible.

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molszanski
I don't expect any form of hard proof. I am curious about the subject and
looking forward to any reading or viewing material

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bit33
Maybe the Chinese government can fix this with using some extra slave labour
or else steal and extortion it from some small countries? Can't they just
invade Taiwan or Korea and just grab it? As a last resort they could become a
democracy, without slavery, without stealing and play by the rules, but hey
what a weired idea if you can be a thug as well!

