
Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board - ComputerGuru
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51029994
======
aaronbrethorst
A three year old Boeing 737-800, which does not have any known safety issues.
It feels deeply implausible that this airplane would simply crash due to
mechanical issues two minutes after taking off from Tehran just hours after
Iran retaliated against the United States's assassination of General Qassem
Soleimani, but then again there was also an earthquake in Iran just a few
hours ago, so I guess maybe these things just happen occasionally? I hope.

[https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/iran-earthquake-
busheh...](https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/iran-earthquake-bushehr-
nuclear-plant-1634863-2020-01-08)

~~~
cm2187
It’s going to be hard to remove the suspicion. The investigation will probably
be run by an Iranian authority. I doubt the NTSB will be invited in the
current climate. How credible will be its finding? Usually in this case a
neutral third party is invited (like France’s BEA). But pretty much all
western countries are being threaten by Iran now.

~~~
mikejb
> But pretty much all western countries are being threaten by Iran now.

Are they? If I remember correctly, Iran threatened the US / Trump specifically
(more so since Trump threatened to attack cultural sites). Were there any
threats to other western countries?

~~~
cm2187
The UK seems to think so:

[https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/british-strike-on-
ir...](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/british-strike-on-iran-cant-be-
ruled-out-mps-warned-sqnc2klfb)

~~~
iso1210
The UK is desparate for a 'trade deal' with america having voted to completely
cut ties with the EU.

------
hideoto
Official list of victims' nationality [1]:

Iran: 82 Canada: 63 Ukraine: 2 + 9 crew members Sweden: 10 Afghanistan: 4
Germany: 3 UK: 3

[1]
[https://twitter.com/VPrystaiko/status/1214821876742213632](https://twitter.com/VPrystaiko/status/1214821876742213632)

~~~
shadowprofile77
After a whole comment dump of speculation, why the bloody hell is this comment
of all things being downvoted?

Very surprisingly large number of Canadians by the way.

~~~
keiferski
My guess is that a significant portion are dual citizens / have family in
Iran.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Canadians](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Canadians)

------
amluto
Better article:

[https://avherald.com/h?article=4d1aea51&opt=0](https://avherald.com/h?article=4d1aea51&opt=0)

~~~
22c
Thanks for this. Reporting seems to have been pretty bad so far.

I noticed that the Associated Press (and news stories derived from AP) are
reporting on the age of Iran's commercial fleet, as though that has anything
to do with a plane belonging to a Ukrainian airline.

> _Iran’s commercial passenger aircraft fleet has aged, with air accidents
> occurring regularly for domestic carriers in recent years, resulting in
> hundreds of casualties._

[https://apnews.com/2a253e68d45381f16b89edc5cc45bba1](https://apnews.com/2a253e68d45381f16b89edc5cc45bba1)

~~~
TomMarius
And a three year old one!

------
Aeolun
[https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ps752#23732569](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ps752#23732569)

Is there a reason a flights transponder data would just suddenly cut off in
the middle of the air in case of engine failure? Maybe really explosive engine
failure?

I recall seeing the full history (right up until the plane hits the ground),
in other cases of airplane crashes.

~~~
goodcanadian
Well, if it exploded in the air (which is what the videos suggest happened),
the transponder will most likely stop working.

------
jgwil2
> In a sign of the potential difficulties facing crash investigators, the head
> of Iran's civil aviation organisation was quoted as saying the Ukrainian
> plane's black box would not be handed over, either to Boeing or the
> Americans.

Would they hand it over to Ukraine who could then hand it over to Boeing? If
not, how likely is it the investigation will be reliable?

------
garganzol
There are suspicious smaller holes near portholes of the aircraft debris.

Could it be shrapnel? This is the basic principle of how anti-air systems
damage the aircraft engines.

The smaller holes also might be caused by explosion during the ground impact
though.

This is going to be the hell of an investigation given the current tensions in
the region.

~~~
koheripbal
Multiple small holes in the aircraft shell is generally not caused by hitting
the ground, and is indicative of a missile strike.

~~~
valcker
In the case of a missile strike, wouldn't the aircraft disintegrate in the
air?

~~~
garganzol
Aircraft may partly disintegrate, but this is not the main mode of operation
of air defense systems.

The main mode of operation is to produce a relatively small near-by explosion
that creates a wave of moving particles (shrapnel). Shrapnel causes the
destruction of everything it touches.

Engines, radio transmitters, communications, and sadly... people.

------
actuator
Does anyone remember how much time it took to nail down the cause of MH17
crash?

If memory serves me right, during the MH17 shoot down over Ukraine it was
established quite early that it was a work of a surface to air missile
launched by rebels.

If Iran did really shoot down the plane by mistake, can they cover it up by
not giving access to the debris?

~~~
bitcoinbutter
The investigation is on Iranian soil. There is no access to the FAA or similar
agencies. Iran would have every reason to want to cover up an erroneous
missile launch.

In Ukraine, there was a cooperative effort to investigate the crash, and it
was found to be a Russian missile.

~~~
actuator
Yeah, that's what I was thinking as well. But others are saying it is possible
to track missiles with systems other countries have. So, hopefully we will
have some answer.

~~~
AstralStorm
Not possible for a low altitude SAM that would be used for something like
that, unlike MH17 at much higher altitude.

To track it you'd have to be really close. Like next neighborhood or so.

------
est
flightradar24 data

[https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ps752#23732569](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ps752#23732569)

------
BinaryIdiot
Happening hours after Iran's strike against bases in Iraq raises the obvious
question: is this in any way related to the strikes or a coincidence?

I'm guessing it'll be at least a few months before we hear about the why but I
wonder if there will be additional focus on it due to the recent tensions.

~~~
sparkling
I won't point fingers at anyone, but:

\- A 3-year old 737 operated by a reputable airline does not just turn into a
huge fireball mid-air and crash like a rock like we see it in the video:
[https://youtu.be/xRc31DTStwA](https://youtu.be/xRc31DTStwA) \- It just
doesn't happen.

\- Iran declaring it a "technical error" just hours after the crash is
dubious/untrustworthy to say the least. We need a indepedend aviation agency
to look at the case, investigators from the manufacturer and some experts from
the carrier on ground. Unfournately such investigation will be very difficult
with the current political tensions.

~~~
p_l
Southwest Airlines is, AFAIK, also a reputable airline.

They had two accidents on this type of plane with this engine, randomly
disintegrating the engine in flight.

~~~
sparkling
What flight numbers?

~~~
p_l
The southwest ones were 737-700, but "close enough" (I think the same engine,
not even a different variant)

Deadly one:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwest_Airlines_Flight_1380](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwest_Airlines_Flight_1380)

Safe landing with no injuries:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwest_Airlines_Flight_3472](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwest_Airlines_Flight_3472)

------
torgian
Just had maintenance. Could have been someone being lazy and left FOD in the
aircraft that finally made its way into the engine.

Could be any number of things, but probably FOD.

~~~
majewsky
For those not familiar with the term, FOD is "Foreign Object Damage" according
to Wikipedia:

> The term FOD is used to describe both the foreign objects themselves, and
> any damage attributed to them.

------
echelon
(Edit: We don't know what caused this incident. Speculation follows. It's best
to not form conclusions until the experts examine the evidence.)

It looks like it was shot down with an air defense missile. You can see the
plane on fire as it falls to the earth.

Video taken during the crash, the plane is clearly engulfed in flames:

[https://mobile.twitter.com/isna_farsi/status/121475622529397...](https://mobile.twitter.com/isna_farsi/status/1214756225293979648)

Video of the aftermath / wreckage:

[https://twitter.com/Looper_i/status/1214772061580615681](https://twitter.com/Looper_i/status/1214772061580615681)

[https://twitter.com/Looper_i/status/1214773020885041152](https://twitter.com/Looper_i/status/1214773020885041152)

It might have been mistakenly triggered as part of Iran's anti-aircraft
missile defense or a similar system. The plane probably wasn't safely diverted
from an active war zone, and Iran is already in a heightened state of watchful
defense.

Similar incidents:

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655)
(TIL; caused by the USA)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17)

~~~
JumpCrisscross
> _It looks like it was shot down with an air defense missile. You can see the
> plane on fire as it falls to the earth._

Come on. Don't do this.

Planes are complex machines. They're pressurized and propelled by a continuous
explosion. There are lots of ways for things to go wrong.

A good rule of thumb in aviation is to ignore the first 24 hours of news.
There are no facts. Everyone is an armchair crash investigator. And mindshare
is competed for with salaciousness.

It could be an attack. It could be an air-defense error. Or it could be a
mechanical error. One of _countless_ possible mechanical errors. Either way,
it's a tragedy to which no service is done by baseless speculation.

~~~
tempsy
what is the point of this being the top post on HN then if there’s no point to
speculation? What are people supposed to be commenting for, really?

~~~
JumpCrisscross
> _What are people supposed to be commenting for, really?_

I don't know. And I don't have to know.

Just because one can't come up with a value-adding comment doesn't require the
content be censored. Nor does it mean the void should be filled with nonsense.

~~~
tempsy
comments shouldn’t be censored because you’re personally allergic to
speculation

------
akkawwakka
It’s being reported there was an “engine failure”. I’d assume that engine
failure and fire detection systems are pretty good, not to mention that pilots
train on engine fires/failure and single engine procedures regularly.

Are there situations where pulling the fire handle to extinguish a fire or
shutting down an engine wouldn’t be adequate to alleviate some sort of grave
failure?

~~~
Filligree
If the turbine disk disintegrates, it's liable to slice through the entire
width of the airplane. This can sever all sorts of connections -- there have
been crashes due to this in the past.

It's an unlikely thing to happen today, or ever, but it would certainly
account for the rapid crash.

~~~
avh02
IIRC engine cowling is supposed to contain most catastrophic failures,
obviously there have been situations where this doesn't happen so no idea how
stringent those requirements are

~~~
DreamScatter
Cowling could contain a single blade failure, but not a full disk failure.

------
seren
I thought that because of the embargo Boeing could not deliver replacement
parts or provide technical assistance, so I am not sure how they can be
involved in the post crash investigation either.

~~~
p_l
Ukrainian aircraft, not Iranian.

~~~
seren
That's a good point, I thought it was Iranian.

------
sparkling
Note: while this is a 737-800, it is NOT the 800-MAX Version that was in the
headlines for the last few months.

~~~
Yetanfou
Also, the failure mode of the 737-MAX thus far did not have it fall from the
sky _in flames_ \- assuming that the video which purportedly shows the plane
doing just that is a true depiction of the event. Furthermore it seems
unlikely for a 3 year old plane to be affected by the 'pickle fork' problems
(where cracks have been reported in the wing attachment assembly on older
planes) reported in this series.

------
taspeotis
PPRuNe’s my go-to for information on these sorts of things but please note the
posts can come pretty quickly without much verification.

[https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/628650-ukrainian-
aircraf...](https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/628650-ukrainian-aircraft-
down-iran.html)

~~~
LewYard
Indeed, this does not look like good content to me as many of the post do not
quote their sources: “report says...” It is better on the long term ? Do you
find solid information ?

------
chvid
My guess is that they shot down their own plane. Also losing control of a
funeral and having 50 people killed in a stampede. Plus claiming 60 dead us
troops in their revenge attack which as far as I can tell had no casualties.

My interpretation is that this is the Iranian regime falling apart.

------
dirtyid
Engine failure, not missile, caused crash of Ukrainian airliner in Iran:
Ukrainian embassy

[1] [https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-crash-
engine/engine-...](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-crash-
engine/engine-failure-not-missile-caused-crash-of-ukrainian-airliner-in-iran-
ukrainian-embassy-idUSKBN1Z70W5)

The fallout / propaganda from this is certainly going to be interesting.
Either Iranian air defense / Russian arms is unreliable or another nail in the
coffin for Boeing. I wonder what's Ukraine's angle in all this in context of
Trump drama. Is this an deescalation signal (at the request of whom?) or are
they trying to burn Trump / Boeing. The amount of intersecting interest is
staggering.

~~~
hnarn
Wow, that's a quick investigation by the Ukrainian embassy /s

~~~
dirtyid
Well the question is, what is the motive behind releasing this statement? It
doesn't really benefit Ukraine to shit on Boeing so rashly and publicly
because they're still beholden to US support. The calculation behind the
messaging is very curious. Did Iran request Ukraine to release this statement?
Why would Ukraine oblige them. Did the US ask Ukraine because maybe Iranians
will attribute the crash to US hostility like 655 and they're trading Boeing
reputation for deescalation.

Presumably US/Russia/ everyone in the region is watching Iranians skies very
carefully post retaliation, if there's signs of the plane was shot down, it
would be easy to confirm. If there's no signs, then it can be quickly
dismissed as technical error to deescalate an already confusing situation.

~~~
saberdancer
To me it looks like Ukrainian embassy in Teheran reported to Ukraine what
Iranians told them. This then gets repeated in Ukrainian media, picked up by
western media and we have a story how Ukrainian embassy says it's not a
missile. I doubt they know for sure at this moment.

There is no way anyone can know cause of the crash unless if it was shot down
or bombed (in that case the missile comanders and/or terrorists would know).

~~~
dirtyid
>There is no way anyone can know cause of the crash unless if it was shot down
or bombed (in that case the missile comanders and/or terrorists would know).

There's enough surveillance on Iranian airspace after the missile launches
that every state-actor with the capability in the region should be able to
determine whether the plane was shot down.

~~~
saberdancer
Exactly. Now we wait. The wreckage will be able to tell a lot as well, I'm no
crash investigator but if it was a missile the shrapnel will leave visible
marks.

------
idclip
like having a door slam while you try to gently clean your loaded shotgun.

------
tzfld
Not related to the Iran-US conflict, it seems.

~~~
beagle3
Could be e.g. the Iranian's shooting iit down due to hairline trigger Iranian
defense (or otherwise a mistake identifying the civilian aircraft as enemy
aircraft) - in this case, I would say it IS related to the conflict, even
though it is entirely on one side.

~~~
kitteh
Given how many other aircraft depart tehran on that same route to the
northwest that would be a massive error given how close it is to the airport.

~~~
saberdancer
That is what makes it problematic, but then again MH17 was also flying a
regular route.

People on edge make mistakes, and this plane was not flying on schedule which
could have been what caused them to misidentify the plane. In a normal
situation they'd investigate but this was not a normal situation.

~~~
kitteh
Eh to be fair there were plenty of NOTAMs out warning against the routes MH17
was on. However, the amount of garbage in NOTAMs makes it incredibly difficult
for people to parse and take appropriate action. There are some great efforts
by folks like Ops Group to try uplevel this space but it's difficult when
people are overly broad with warnings for the sake of covering their ass
legally. Then there are the situations where two countries are arguing over
airspace boundaries, etc.

------
actuator
Btw, @dang. It would be better if we change the title to say Boeing 737-800
just to emphasise this is a different plane than Max.

~~~
noitsnot
Is any airline even flying the Max at this point?

------
tyzerdak
Imo need to wait investigation because the new elected ua government are
braindead and full retards. They say on black is white and white is black for
9 months.

------
dustinmoris
Ukrainian president doesn’t know why it crashed, Ukraine International
Airlines doesn’t know the cause of the crash yet, but the embassy in Iran has
already single handedly worked out it was an engine failure. Ok boomer -.-

------
imvetri
And nobody gives a damn about people who might have got killed there, instead
puts up their theories on what would have gone wrong.

\- After reading the comments.

------
senectus1
To top that off they just had a decent earthquake near their nuke plant....
Q-anon are gonna go nuts.

------
sschueller
This will be a difficult investigation.

As we have seen with other Boeing crashes, Boeing will blame everyone else
before admitting anything.

Iran for sure won't admit it if they shot it down by mistake and if the US
shot it down they wouldn't admit it either.

~~~
nickserv
It'll be a very easy investigation: "pilot error".

This way there's no need to dig any deeper.

~~~
spease
Is there actually any kind of believable “pilot error” that can cause a
passenger 737-800 to catch fire in the air and crash?

~~~
t0mas88
No, there isn't. And an engine fire does not cause an airliner to crash. We
all train those every 6 months in the simulator, if you get that wrong you'll
fail the sim check and not get back to flying commercially until you've done
remedial training and a satisfactory check fight.

So there is more to this crash than just an engine fire, or simple "pilot
error"

------
aaron695
Iran used Fateh-313 surface-to-surface missiles in the recent attacks, some
media reported they launched 313 missiles which got to they launched hundreds
of missile.

But if the footage is real it was not a malfunction. Planes don't catch in
fire in the air like that.

But not sure if the footage is old rehashed footage yet or not.

~~~
p_l
Turbine and compressor blades can cause just that. Sometimes they also cut
through control lines. Sometimes they just depressurize cabin in a way that
kills passenger.

Recent 737-800 had two accidents confirmed to be caused by disintegrating
compressor (or was it fan itself?).

~~~
aaron695
What would explain the multiple holes in the pieces of wreckage?

It was hit or was part of a large explosions of some kind.

"the images coming out of Tehran of the downed Ukrainian 737-800 looks to have
frag damage."
[https://twitter.com/LostWeapons/status/1214803481782915072](https://twitter.com/LostWeapons/status/1214803481782915072)

If it was a accident, it seems something we have not seen the likes of. Engine
failure fits though, with multiple mistakes.

Given it was during a war, it more likely fits it was part of that war.

~~~
p_l
Ruptured turbine/compressor disks are known to throw, ahh, "interesting"
shrapnel. And having experienced first hand how crazy the shrapnel can be from
much lower speed helicopter main rotor...

BTW, blade disks disintegrating had, in past, done things like completely cut
all steering other than ailerons, and other "nice" damage.

