
What if aviation doesn’t recover? - pedrodelfino
https://www.economist.com/the-world-if/2020/07/04/what-if-aviation-doesnt-recover-from-covid-19
======
tehjoker
Aviation has always been implicitly or explicitly state supported. Worrying
about the market is just a farce.

Think about how research is done, the aircraft makers get fat on their defense
grants, airport land and infrastructure are built with subsidies, the
transportation to and from the airport are usually public buses, metro, or
public roads, the regulation of airspace by the FAA is taxpayer funded, the
security theater is provided by DHS, it goes on and on. Only the most visible
part of the system is really "deregulated" and run by people trying to make
money. Even then they get bailed out whenever they whimper.

~~~
bcrosby95
Then what mode of transit isn't implicitly or explicitly state supported? Even
when I walk somewhere I use the sidewalk.

~~~
henryfjordan
Boating?

But that's kinda the GP's point, that the state WANTS you to be able to
travel. Travel encourages trade, which generates more tax revenue. Of course
the govt will support any sufficiently large mode of travel.

~~~
storyinmemo
Boating? NOAA, Coast Guard, charting work, navigation buoys, harbor masters,
etc.

~~~
mcpherrinm
Harbours, anchorages, canals, dredged channels, breakwaters

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m3at
Key excerpt:

"That covid-19 has exposed the fragility of globalisation is particularly
apparent in the case of aviation. [...] historians will write that it was not
radical environmental movements such as Extinction Rebellion that killed the
trend. Instead it was the combination of a microscopic virus and free-market
capitalism."

This reminded me of accelerationism [1], which seems more relevant now than
ever. To quote Wikipedia: " [Accelerationism may refer] to support for the
intensification of capitalism in the belief that this will hasten its self-
destructive tendencies and ultimately lead to its collapse"

[1]
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerationism](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerationism)

~~~
chrismatheson
Hmmmmm is it possible SoftBank are Accellerationists ....

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neonate
[https://archive.is/KXh7w](https://archive.is/KXh7w)

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mathattack
It will recover. The current investors might not.

~~~
dawnerd
I'm considering investing into the top few airlines knowing that eventually
they'll be back to normal. They'll get bailed out and the stock will go right
back up to where it was.

~~~
mathattack
I’m not an investment advisor. In some bailouts the equity holders get wiped
out.

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mshaler
I'm struck by our possible near-term loss of aviation and a possible post-
melange loss of space travel.

(Then again: 140 characters not flying cars.)

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xwdv
If aviation doesn’t recover then it’s back to the old days when a ticket costs
a minimum of $1000 and only a privileged few can travel very far. Hopefully no
one who is retiring now had plans to travel the world because whatever they
saved up won’t be enough.

~~~
justinator
Think when I get to retirement age, plan is to travel the world, by bike. The
Americas will take a while; once done with that, I'll maybe hop on a boat.

~~~
jbay808
I hope you retire very fit and healthy!

~~~
justinator
(me too!)

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catalogia
I suppose it would be too much to hope for more trains.

~~~
twblalock
Would you get on a train right now, during a pandemic?

I wouldn't, and I like trains more than most people do. I'n sticking with my
own car for transportation for the foreseeable future, and everyone else who
owns a car is doing the same. I'm not going to put myself in a large metal box
full of other people who might be sick.

~~~
darren_
Yes, and regularly, and so do millions of other Tokyo residents. Cases here
are up to ~200 daily new cases with (AFAIK) zero linked to public transit (and
this is weeks after our quasi-lockdown ended). If public transit/trains were
by definition a significant risk factor Tokyo's situation would look a _lot_
different.

Now maybe a train stuffed with non-mask wearing people talking constantly
would be a different issue.

~~~
idoh
Do you have any insight as to how that's possible? Not disputing the fact, but
those trains are packed super tight. It seems like ideal situation for
spreading. Are the only safeguards mask usage?

~~~
missosoup
The biggest safeguard in Japan is civic compliance. Pretty much 100% of people
with symptoms or who suspect they had contact, self-isolate. At low daily case
rates, that's enough. If the rates spike, then they'll have to set
restrictions again.

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bankim
Paywall. Can we get access to the full post?

~~~
vsareto
outline.com/[https://www.economist.com/the-world-if/2020/07/04/what-if-
av...](https://www.economist.com/the-world-if/2020/07/04/what-if-aviation-
doesnt-recover-from-covid-19)

~~~
dredmorbius
Direct URL: [https://outline.com/VVqWMy](https://outline.com/VVqWMy)

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option
it would be very sad and a huge net negative for the world.

Being able to cheaply and quickly travel practically anywhere makes us see
others as much less different from us and helps us see global issues as _our_
issues

~~~
Kiro
And cause global issues while you're at it. No, it would be a net positive for
the world and the environment for sure.

~~~
jejay
Or maybe we want to keep the peace induced through learning about different
cultures via cheap travel. Maybe building dams is cheaper than recovering from
a world war three.

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Kiro
I hope it doesn't and I'm disgusted with the romanticization of something so
utterly destructive and unnecessary. The right thing is to never travel with
plane again. I'm glad I live in a country where flying became taboo long
before corona.

~~~
hwillis
per passenger-mile, flying is much less polluting than driving a car, even
after you account for the fact that pollution in the stratosphere is more
damaging. If getting rid of air travel results in more people driving across
the country, that makes the greenhouse worse.

In terms of absolute consumption, yes it would be great if people stopped
spending so much on things that are damaging the environment... but it would
be FAR better to instead spend money on renewable energy and electric cars,
which are by far the most effective ways to reduce CO2.

~~~
pacifist
This infographic disagrees on the cars vs planes:
[https://media2.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2017_39/2168831/17092...](https://media2.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2017_39/2168831/170926-fig1full-
ac-416ap_935dc9cfc68ad2d79320499127779c76.fit-560w.jpg)

It's from this article: [https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/best-lifestyle-
choice-s...](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/best-lifestyle-choice-
saving-planet-just-might-surprise-you-ncna804936)

TLDR: One transatlantic flight is just under giving up driving altogether.

~~~
dredmorbius
Infographic for much larger ants, if you prefer (via TinEye):

[http://www.kimnicholas.com/uploads/2/5/7/6/25766487/fig1full...](http://www.kimnicholas.com/uploads/2/5/7/6/25766487/fig1full.jpg)

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sushshshsh
I'm banking on a political wind-shifting event where suddenly the vogue thing
to do will be to allow all commerce to proceed like normal and social
distancing will suddenly be relaxed. Not sure what political events would
cause that to happen but it is within the realm of possibility.

~~~
gonzo41
I think you're right, that this will probably happen, but until there's a
vaccine COVID will flare up again and again smashing multiple sectors.

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lsllc
So what? While the convenience of air travel is nice, I think the
environmental cost right now is too great -- don't get me wrong, I love being
able to hop on a plane and travel to say France (not that I can do that
anymore with C19). It's somewhat selfish though, there's a pretty decent CO2
cost associated with it.

Maybe I get to go overseas if I make a commitment to offsetting the CO2 that I
use (e.g. carbon credits) ... but that's hardly very progressive (why should
only the wealthy only get to travel).

I suppose we could try to clean up shipping [bunker fuel] so we could go via
some sort of gas turbine / wind powered cruise ship.

Or maybe this change in economic fortunes makes solar powered airships viable!
Slow(-ish), but clean (& maybe fun!), I'm thinking the Mark Twain airship in
"The Long Earth".

... I think I like the Mark Twain airship idea ... it sounds fun.

~~~
TheCapeGreek
This would only work in a culture that fully embraces remote working, and the
ships would need high availability bandwidth that doesn't cost insane amounts
for terrible speeds.

This is because there's I'd either have to waste a week or two of my leave
time just traveling, or would have to convince my employer to let me work
remotely.

~~~
lsllc
Not sure how this is different from a cruise-ship but I don't see why between
satellites and high-altitude stationary relays (or something like Tesla
Starlink) couldn't work.

For sure though, it's a different life-pace.

