
The Antarctic Ozone Hole Will Recover (2015) - apsec112
https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/30602
======
jdblair
It's interesting to consider a thought experiment: what if the ozone depleting
nature of CFCs had been discovered during the modern Internet age? Would the
ozone hole be dismissed as a hoax? Would we be able to organize an
international effort to successfully phase out CFCs?

~~~
ars
The phase out of CFCs worked for one simple reason: there was an alternative
that worked well.

For all the noise and fury about climate change there is simply no alternative
energy source that works very well.

Everything else: climate denial, climate alarmism, it's all noise and means
nothing.

Neither the politicians (both for and against), nor the activists (again, both
for and against) have any effect whatsoever.

~~~
tempestn
A combination of solar, wind, nuclear, and hydro where available works just
fine. I agree that the change is harder than with CFCs, but it's not that
we're without a viable alternative to burning fossil fuels, outside of some
special cases like aviation.

~~~
ailideex
> nuclear

That one is the kicker though. What do you think the support for this is
amongst the extinction rebellion crowd and the likes of Greta "I see CO² with
my naked eye"[1] Thunberg? This problem would be solved already if people were
actually interested in solving it as opposed to politicking about it by doing
things like demanding the end of economic growth in the west.

[1] [https://www.afrinik.com/my-daughter-can-see-co2-with-the-
nak...](https://www.afrinik.com/my-daughter-can-see-co2-with-the-naked-eye/)

> She can see carbon dioxide with the naked eye. She sees how it flows out of
> chimneys and changes the atmosphere in a landfill.

~~~
eggsmediumrare
Did you read the article you posted? Like two paragraphs down they say she
(her mother, Greta herself never said this) doesn't mean it literally.

~~~
ailideex
[https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/naked_eye](https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/naked_eye)

> Eyesight, unaided by equipment such as a telescope or microscope.

[https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/naked-
ey...](https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/naked-eye)

[https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/naked%20eye](https://www.merriam-
webster.com/dictionary/naked%20eye)

[https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/the-
nak...](https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/the-naked-eye)

Saying X and then later saying that when you said X you obviously did not mean
X is the textbook definition of gaslighting.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaslighting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaslighting)

> Gaslighting is a form of psychological manipulation in which a person seeks
> to sow seeds of doubt in a targeted individual or in members of a targeted
> group, making them question their own memory, perception, and sanity. Using
> denial, misdirection, contradiction, and lying, gaslighting involves
> attempts to destabilize the victim and delegitimize the victim's beliefs.

~~~
tempestn
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperbole](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperbole)

> Hyperbole is the use of exaggeration as a rhetorical device or figure of
> speech. In rhetoric, it is also sometimes known as auxesis (literally
> 'growth'). In poetry and oratory, it emphasizes, evokes strong feelings, and
> creates strong impressions. As a figure of speech, it is usually not meant
> to be taken literally.

Since everyone knows gaseous CO2 is invisible to the naked eye, this is
clearly an example of hyperbole. Presumably Greta's mother just gave people
enough credit to realize that.

~~~
ailideex
If someone says they can see jesus with their naked eye and then tell people
clearly they did not mean they can see jesus with their naked eye when they
said they could because everybody knows jesus is not real is not hyperbole -
it is either signs of mental instability or some half arsed attempt at
gaslighting.

I'm pretty sure when her mother said "She can see carbon dioxide with the
naked eye", what she meant was "She can see carbon dioxide with the naked eye"
and I base this belief on the fact that "She can see carbon dioxide with the
naked eye" is verbatim what she said. I don't see why you are berating me for
claiming someone said something which they said without qualifying that they
did not mean what they said. If she did not mean what she said she also can
clearly say that instead of trying to gaslight people.

This would be like Bloomberg trying to defend themselves in that case where
they were fined by France for publishing fake news by claiming clearly it was
not fake news but hyperbole because everybody knows it was not true - which -
if it is not clear to you - would be absurd.

~~~
eggsmediumrare
I'm not sure why you're so eager to write off a teenager, especially who has
become the voice of a rightfully scared and angry generation.

------
magicbuzz
IIRC there was a ‘Sudden Stratospheric Warming’ this year that caused the
ozone hole to be much smaller than usual. As a resident of the South Island in
New Zealand, I find these articles of much interest.

------
nielsbjerg
I remeber reading recent news about CFC emmittance raising in China recently.
Does anyone know of a more recent study than the one linked here?

~~~
mturmon
One of the original papers reporting Chinese CFC emissions is here

[https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0106-2.epdf?refer...](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0106-2.epdf?referrer_access_token=e3U8HfFs2Y70qFtak9n0wdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0ObYgkb7dfDTYXtPv1emzlBU-
NXtAeuSd3TWCDDbIhzRhCB77Vx-
ChS6XuK_3FAPTyvZh3Or4IVbdZGyqs39BYwiyrG1Za6cdpTYXfMrSZ0g2-Is2bwHDmvJWZV76zKvZ0feu_C8oyDkT1ez-
Xm0PCPATmVwsJ4pMOgEaEpDG-
ipI7CKGWdQkUDF1zgwaOpprE%3D&tracking_referrer=www.bbc.com)

A later one (2019) is

[https://eos.org/articles/banned-cfc-emissions-tracked-to-
eas...](https://eos.org/articles/banned-cfc-emissions-tracked-to-eastern-
china)

Both use very sparse ground based measurements, which makes good emissions
localization hard. There are also confirmations from satellite measurements.

