
Market Size and Demand for Marijuana in Colorado [pdf] - dsirijus
http://www.colorado.gov/cs/Satellite?blobcol=urldata&blobheadername1=Content-Disposition&blobheadername2=Content-Type&blobheadervalue1=inline%3B+filename%3D%22Market+Size+and+Demand+Study%2C+July+9%2C+2014.pdf%22&blobheadervalue2=application%2Fpdf&blobkey=id&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobwhere=1252008574534&ssbinary=true
======
alelefant
I'm surprised at how polarized the usage percentages are. Near 50% are using
between 1-5 times a month and a touch over 20% are using 26-31 times per month
(daily). It sounds like people are either using casually or they throw all
their chips in (not that I blame them).

Hopefully Wisconsin can join the club in the next decade.

~~~
YokoZar
I wouldn't call 4-5 times a month "very casual" \-- that's every weekend.

~~~
dyladan
4-5 times a month would tend to be weekends only. If it was drinking you would
consider that to be pretty casual.

~~~
njharman
Every weekend is "regular" usage. I equate casual with occasional. 0-2 times
month, with no regular pattern.

------
SheepSlapper
My hometown of Spokane, WA just opened the first legal marijuana store all of
two days ago. They sold out right away, so... the demand is definitely there.

What will be _really_ interesting to see is how the state can compete with the
existing growers/dealers RE: price. Right now to buy marijuana legally in
Spokane it's about $700/oz. Your friendly neighborhood dealer will have it for
$200. As it is now, there's not a lot of incentive for the old growers/dealers
to go legal, because it'll cut into their profits (and their customers won't
want to pay more anyway).

~~~
gwern
The paper notes a similar dynamic: right now, it's much cheaper to buy
marijuana there as a medical marijuana user, and so 'retail' sales are only a
small fraction of total consumption because they're having a hard time
competing on price. (This explains something that confused me in coverage: out
of state visitors represent a majority of retail purchases, it seems, but they
represent <10% of _total consumption_ \- because all the locals are buying
medical marijuana, growing their own, getting weed from 'caregivers', etc.0

------
cloudwalking
Marijuana is an enormous growing market. Legalization will take hold over the
next 10 years and the market will grow 100x what it is now. This is a golden
opportunity for entrepreneurs.

~~~
GregorStocks
The market could perhaps grow to 100x the sales volume, although that seems
doubtful considering 7% of US adults already claim to smoke marijuana -
[http://www.gallup.com/poll/163835/tried-marijuana-little-
cha...](http://www.gallup.com/poll/163835/tried-marijuana-little-
changed-80s.aspx). There's no way it'll grow to 100x the revenue, though.
Without illegality driving up the price, its price ought to plummet until it's
about as cheap as any other agricultural product, apart from high sin taxes
(which don't help potrepreneur profit).

~~~
dvanduzer
cheap as any other agricultural product, like tobacco and processed hops,
which (as I understand it) are things that everyone in south carolina grow at
home.

bathtub moonshine has left Pete Coors a pauper.

this was actually one of the _least expensive_ investor expos in town this
year: [http://cannabiscapitalsummit.org](http://cannabiscapitalsummit.org)

------
bruceb
Lots of non state residents buy: purchases by out of state visitors currently
represent about 44 percent of metro area retail sales and about 90 percent of
retail sales in heavily visited mountain communities.

So nearby state might want to stop losing money and make it legal also.

~~~
bellerocky
Wow. I'd think that transporting any kind of marijuana across state lines as a
seriously illegal act. If so it strikes me as incredibly risky and ill
advised. Why would so many people risk so much for pot?

~~~
gdubs
I think you'll find that people have been taking legal risks for marijuana
(and any other drug) for a very long time. Take New York, for example. There
have historically been laws so strict that possession of even small amounts
can result in long jail sentences. The people taking pot out of Colorado
probably don't see it as more risky than buying it illegally in their native
state.

~~~
DonGanja
I'm not sure NY is a great example because possession and consumption in
private has been legal for decades.

Your point stands however-- draconian anti-cannabis laws do exist, and
enthusiasts will nonetheless take risks to indulge.

------
pjeide
I think it is worth mentioning that violent crime and property crime are down
more than 10% post-legalization, that the state forecasts $30M in tax revenue,
and $2M has already been created for local schools.

[http://rt.com/usa/163644-colorado-marijuana-crime-
drop/](http://rt.com/usa/163644-colorado-marijuana-crime-drop/)

~~~
beambot
The 10% stat is from Denver. Does it hold state wide? Statistically
significant? Confounding factors?

I'm genuinely curious, but want to make sure such things are sound before
using them in national debate.

~~~
steveklabnik
> Statistically significant?

A statistically insignificant result is politically significant: it wrecks the
'omg pot smokers will lead to tons of crime' argument some politicians were
making.

------
gdubs
"The demand for marijuana by Colorado adult residents is estimated to be 121.4
metric tons in 2014"

Big number, tough to visualize: [see answer below, which did the conversion
better than my attempt :]

~~~
windsurfer
To make it easier to visualize, it's a little over the carrying capacity of a
Boeing 747-200F aircraft

~~~
dyladan
Or 2 times the weight of an average blue whale.

------
DanBC
The war on drugs has caused immeasurable harm.

[http://www.irinnews.org/in-depth/100080/114/war-on-drugs-
col...](http://www.irinnews.org/in-depth/100080/114/war-on-drugs-collateral-
damage)

Making drugs legal means we can treat the medical harms; spend time and money
tackling the actually nasty things in the supply chain (two friends sharing a
lump of cannabis = fine; a trafficked worker being forced to work in an
illegal squat cannabis factory = probably bad).

