
Tesla Gets Crushed in Germany by EVs from Volkswagen, Renault, and Hyundai Group - ckastner
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/08/10/tesla-gets-crushed-in-germany-by-evs-from-volkswagen-renault-hyundai-group-it-woke-up-the-giants/
======
wnorris
Tesla ships cars to different regions in waves.

The previous months were primarily going to US customers (partly due to an
ongoing pandemic). Notice how deliveries to Europe will spike in follow-on
months as ships arrive.

Tesla tends to have very vocal fans and haters. Each month there is a
different article highlighting how Tesla is in dire straights due to the
precipitous fall in sales in X country. The next month an article will say how
Tesla crushes competitors in X market.

Source:
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Uh_GSkShwPPlrE5mOJc...](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Uh_GSkShwPPlrE5mOJcrkZ-T3NmLkLnTo6xqbdtaOI/htmlview)

[https://electrek.co/2019/09/18/tesla-model-3-best-selling-
ca...](https://electrek.co/2019/09/18/tesla-model-3-best-selling-car-
netherlands/)

"With another wave of deliveries in the Netherlands, Tesla Model 3 has become
the best-selling car in the country for the year as it now surpasses 10,000
units.

Since the European launch of the Model 3 earlier this year, the vehicle
clearly reinvigorated Tesla’s sales on the continent."

~~~
cowpig
What's your source for this?

edit: in case it sounds accusatory I want to clarify: your statement is
totally plausible to me, I just want to learn about where you got the
information (and learn more myself)

~~~
gardaani
_" The automaker didn’t do as well in Europe, but that’s because it barely had
any supply for the market in Q2."_

[https://electrek.co/2020/08/13/tesla-sales-sliding-europe-
co...](https://electrek.co/2020/08/13/tesla-sales-sliding-europe-competition/)

------
cs702
This is... rather surprising to me.

My perception until now was that EVs from "traditional" car manufacturers like
VW, Renault, and Hyundai are not really competitive with Tesla's offerings on
range, efficiency, advanced features, and value/price. I would not have
expected Tesla's share of EV sales to drop so precipitously in any market.
From the OP:

    
    
      German EV registrations by Automaker
      
      Automaker       July 2020  YTD 2020  YTD Share
      ----------------------------------------------
      Volkswagen Grp      6,023    23,400      38.3%
      Renault             2,851     9,917      16.2%
      Hyundai Grp.        3,214     7,353      12.0%
      Tesla                 203     5,306       8.7% <--
      Daimler Grp.        2,105     5,305       8.7%
      BMW Grp.            1,499     4,898       8.0%
      Groupe PSA            301     2,026       3.3%
      Nissan                304     1,475       2.4%
      Jaguar                 73       386       0.6%
      Honda                  43       144       0.2%
      All others            182       886       1.4%
      ----------------------------------------------
      Total EVs          16,798    61,105     100.0%
    

In particular, I would not have expected _Mercedes /Daimler's and BMW's_
respective shares of the EV market to be so close to Tesla's this year in
Germany or any other market. Remarkably, it seems that Mercedes and BMW EVs
combined outsold Tesla by 18x in July (2,105 + 1,499 vs 203). Those two brands
compete in the same segments and for the same affluent customers as Tesla's
existing models (S, 3, X, and Y).

Perhaps there's something unique about the German market? Or perhaps there's
something unusual about the July figures, e.g., Tesla supply issues? Is there
anyone from Germany here who can shed light on this?

\--

EDIT: It appears that supply issues were a key driver of the loss of market
share. See [https://electrek.co/2020/08/13/tesla-sales-sliding-europe-
co...](https://electrek.co/2020/08/13/tesla-sales-sliding-europe-competition/)
(copied from gardaani's comment here
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24144057](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24144057)).

~~~
whalesalad
It’s only a matter of time. These companies are huge, with massive
infrastructure, partnerships, supply chain strength, R&D power and wisdom,
etc... they also do not want to see Tesla eat their lunch.

Electric vehicles are also not rocket science. A company who has been making
vehicles for a century will have a substantial leg up once they get some
momentum. They’re far more simple as far as the driveline goes than an ICE
powered vehicle would be. No transmission. No oil coolant lines. No
engineering the engine and trans to work together. No fuel tank, no fuel
lines, no injection system, no fuel pumps. The list goes on.

With an electrified powertrain it’s basically just a motor and juice (I’m over
simplifying, electric motors and batteries require cooling as well for
instance).

These companies are going to eat Tesla for breakfast as soon as they get
caught up.

~~~
valine
You’re ignoring Tesla’s software and super charging network, neither of which
the legacy automakers seem capable of duplicating.

~~~
dominotw
1\. super charging network

2\. brand name , a car is still a status symbol, owning a bmw, kia ect is not
a social signal.

3\. autonomous driving and software

~~~
actuator
Wait, I must have missed something. Is BMW's image bad? That wouldn't explain
them able to survive some of the high price points, they sell cars at.

~~~
p_l
Depends which BMW :D

In Poland, BMW can mean "expensive luxury sports car", or "Bolid Młodzieży
Wiejskiej", a pejorative name that means "Village Youth Vehicle", as a lot of
used BMW from specific series were available cheap and with good performance.
To the point that road police started stopping cars based on them being
specific BMW models.

~~~
actuator
I think this sort of image, high end car plays like Jaguar, Lexus avoid to an
extent. I don't see how Tesla would maintain an edge of luxury over them if
they can get good performance in their EVs.

------
yalogin
I welcome competition but I am very skeptical of this. The article feels like
is using some shady stats. All cars are not the same. The price point
absolutely matters, even more so in EVs. The correct way to compare them is in
the appropriate market segment. Nissan Leaf sells in droves in the US but it
doesn’t mean they lose a threat to Tesla. I want to see the breakdown by
segment and if people are actually choosing a comparable car over a model 3 or
S or X.

Also the biggest advantage Tesla has is their supercharger network. I haven’t
seen it replicated anywhere and it takes years to do so. I would give the edge
to Tesla and only buy their cars as long as they have that insurmountable
advantage.

~~~
throwaway0a5e
I agree. This article is basically rage bait for the fanboys.

Of course a bunch of EV compacts entering the market is gonna detract market
_share_ from the big EVs because all the "I'll only buy a compact" people just
entered the market and cast their lot in with the compact.

Tesla might be losing market share but EVs are very much a "rising tide lifts
all ships" situation as they slowly replace more and more ICE vehicles so
that's not necessarily indicative of anything. This is very far from a zero
sum game.

~~~
bhupy
Tesla's current valuation is predicated on it essentially becoming the new
Toyota (it's worth more than $TM right now). There's little doubt that Tesla
can be a sustainable, successful electric automobile business in the "big EV"
segment, but a big question is whether it will replace the Toyota Corollas,
Camry's, and Priuses of yesteryear. If the answer to that question is "No",
then maybe the market cap of TSLA is inflated.

~~~
throwaway0a5e
I know that what you're portraying is every online fanboy's wet dream but it's
really unlikely to happen.

Tesla's thing is bleeding edge tech. Bleeding edge tech is not what you fill a
car full of if you want to sell cars to hordes of people who just want A to B
transpiration and are willing to pay a hefty premium for consistency.

------
gchokov
It is not surprising to me at all. Tesla are bad at servicing their cars in
Europe. Model 3 and X are FULL OF ISSUES. Embarrassing issues, solved decades
ago by brands like VW. I myself live in Europe, liked a Tesla, went to see it
and compared it to my 10 year old German car. Decided to stick with a German
car in the end.

~~~
toomuchtodo
Conversely, we live with the minor fit and finish and service issues with our
Teslas because we prefer it to legacy automaker offerings (and, of course, the
Germans are going to defend BMW and VW to the bitter end like Wirecard minus
the accounting fraud because it’s a significant amount of their economy).

Going to a dealer? Nope. Supporting emissions cheaters? Nope. Supporting
automakers who had to be dragged to develop EVs by Tesla? Nope!

Different strokes, the market will sort it out. As long as Tesla does well in
large markets like the US and China [1], they’ll be fine. Europe isn’t exactly
a car centric society.

[1] [https://electrek.co/2020/08/11/tesla-dominates-electric-
car-...](https://electrek.co/2020/08/11/tesla-dominates-electric-car-sales-
china/) (Tesla still dominates electric car sales in China, over 11,000
deliveries in July)

EDIT: @bzb4 [https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/study-americans-
fee...](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/study-americans-feel-taken-
advantage-of-at-the-car-dealership-300301866.html)

> One clear takeaway: people are fed up with the old-school experience of
> buying and selling a car at a dealership. 87% of American adults dislike
> something about the process of purchasing a vehicle at a traditional car
> dealership.

> More than three in five Americans (61%) feel like they're taken advantage of
> at least some of the time when shopping at a car dealership.

> Over half of Americans (54%) would love the ability to buy or sell a car
> without ever leaving home.

> Two in five (42%) would be comfortable purchasing a car online without a
> test drive if certain assurances (like a money-back guarantee) were in
> place.

~~~
bzb4
>Going to a dealer? Nope. Supporting emissions cheaters? Nope. Supporting
automakers who had to be dragged to develop EVs by Tesla? Nope!

Seems like things 0.1% of buyers care about. Really, not buying the car you
want to avoid talking to a dealer? Is that some kind of social phobia?

~~~
valuearb
You must be be among the few that that have had a positive experience with the
dealer monopoly.

~~~
bzb4
How are dealers in Europe a monopoly?

~~~
jiofih
That’s the key. In Europe most dealerships are _brand_ dealers. They sell and
service one or two manufacturers at most, and have a brand to uphold. That is
not the case in much of the world: dealers are independent, and sell whatever
they want at the price they want without a single fuck given to your feelings
since you won’t be coming back in a decade and they will most likely go out of
business by then.

The buying experience can be incredibly painful, especially if you go to a
dealer know for better prices (there is no such a thing with Tesla).

------
throwaway0a5e
No surprises here.

In markets where all cars are taxed a lot and fuel is taxed even more an
expensive EV will do good because of the fuel savings relative to a comparably
equipped ICE vehicle (basically it's more car for your dollar over time).

In markets where all cars are taxed a lot, fuel is taxes more and there exists
cheap EVs those cheaper EVs are gonna steal a substantial market share from
the expensive EVs (all the people who were over-served by the expensive EV but
bought it anyway because it was still cheaper than the ICE vehicle).

Basically just roll fuel cost and taxes into ownership cost and this makes
perfect sense. Teslas are cheap (relative to similar ICE cars) in Europe.
Other EVs are cheaper still (because the lower the purchase price the more the
operating cost dominates) so of course people buy them and that steals share
from Tesla.

Also, drive-trains and prices aside, Tesla doesn't sell compacts and Europe
buys a lot of compacts.

Edit: Since apparently this doesn't go without saying, I'm not making a value
judgement on fuel cost+taxes, car taxes or anything else. I'm just saying that
these things contribute to the total cost of ownership and that you have to
look at total cost of ownership in order to make sense of the stats the
article presents. It doesn't matter where the number comes from, just what it
is.

~~~
TeeWEE
Teslas are not cheap in europe, they are top expensive.

However for leasing they have become the cheaper choice.

Private owners often for more affordable cars such as BWM i3.

------
bryanlarsen
Tesla was significantly supply limited in Europe because of COVID-19.
Traditionally the first month in a quarter is for European builds, so they can
get on a boat and be delivered before the end of the quarter. Which is what
happened in January. However, in April their factory was shut down. And
because being profitable in Q2 was super important to Tesla because 4
consecutive quarters of profitability would allow them to join the S&P 500,
the cars they manufactured in May & June were shipped in North America rather
than to Europe.

Until Tesla becomes demand limited rather than supply limited, any analysis of
any particular market is prone to error -- spikes in one direction or the
other may be just due to shifting shipping choices.

So the drop may mean nothing, or it may be significant. I suspect the answer
is somewhere in the middle.

------
cgufus
Here is a nice page to check on current EV models: [https://ev-
database.org](https://ev-database.org) (They also include measurements on
real-range).

------
justapassenger
Tesla is extremely overhyped Silicon Valley darling. In the real world, they
have tons of struggles, like: \- quirky interior \- very limited model
selection \- dated outside design \- quality issues \- polarizing CEO \- very
limited features (outside of computer tech) \- limited service capacity \-
expensive \- all is their cars are huge

And list goes on. It’s not hard to see why they won’t dominate market. Doesn’t
mean they don’t have place there, but there’s basically 0 rational reasons to
expect them to be a leader in a maturing market.

~~~
stingraycharles
Wait, Tesla has a dated exterior design? I must be new here because when I
look at what’s on the road, Tesla strikes me as a very modern looking car.

~~~
ulfw
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Car designs change every few years to
keep sales up. Teslas look the same since the S was introduced (except for
minor differentiations in updated lights/grill etc).

------
devy
Looking at both the EV sales number by auto manufacturers and by auto brands,
you can see that EV sales is no different than all automotive sales, the
cheaper the cars, the more sales number they would have.

Cars (EV included) under VW and Hyundai brands are mostly affordable low-end
to mid range vehicles, so it makes sense that they are sold more than luxury
brands like Porsche, Audi, BMW, Mercedes Benz and Tesla. Yes, Tesla is still a
luxury brand with majority of the models selling at close to $40k USD or above
(the $35k USD Model 3 standard range version was removed from their website,
even though you can still technically order them by talking to a sales rep.)

Until Tesla can make their cars at below $30k range, they are not going to be
competing head to head with VW and Hyundai, or in other words, they won't
enjoy the sales number that VW or Hyundai has. There just aren't many who can
afford Tesla. This is basic economics.

PS: Nissan Leaf sales numbers low is probably outlier due to the charging port
(Nissan uses ChadeMo instead of CCS for fast charging, but they reverse course
at 2021 model year since ChadeMo is dead outside of Japan) and the charging
infrastructure issues.

PPS: Tesla manufacturing quality is also another issue - comparing to mature
automotive manufacturers like VW and Hyundai. VW has 80 years of history of
making cars, Hyundai has 50. Tesla is FAR behind in terms of the operational
and manufacturing quality control than traditional automotive competitors,
especially the German ones and Toyota (too bad, Toyota is betting big on
hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid technologies, not on EV).

------
manomanowicz
Tesla's current vehicle portfolio doesn't suit the current market trends in
Europe. Only the Model 3, S, and X are currently available. Two are sedans
which are losing market share to SUV type vehicles and the model X SUV is very
expensive for most consumers.

Most vehicle sales in Europe are in the B or C car segment (relatively small
vehicles by North American standards). Increasingly the sales of B and C cars
are moving away from hatchback models to CUVs (crossover utility vehicle)
models which offer a raised seating position and more interior space. Tesla
offer nothing in these segments which the likes of Volkswagen, Hyundai and
Renault do.

The Model Y should do well once it launches but I can imagine competitors who
can offer a lower price albeit compromising the range doing better in this
segment. Given that the distances driven in Europe are on average lower, the
additional range Tesla can offer is not massively compelling unless they can
undercut their rivals on price.

On a slight tangent, the other threat is the increasing hybridisation of
powertrains in Europe. Due to EU rules on the EU fleet -wide average Co2
levels of 95 gCo2/km coming into effect from 2021, vehicle manufacturers are
now offering hybrid options on many name plates to reach this target. These
PHEV and FHEV hybrid powertrains come at a significantly lower price compared
with full electric vehicles with the benefit of short range electric driving
only mode. Previously PHEV and FHEV were separate name plates which had unique
(read: polarising) designs. Now PHEV and FHEV are pretty much available in all
C car and above class vehicles in body styles not dissimilar from their
combustion powertrain counterparts. These hybrid powertrains offer the short
range electric only range consumers want for everyday driving with the
potential for long range driving using the combustion engine all with no
threat of range anxiety.

------
gvhst
BREAKING NEWS: During a recession people will try to save by buying cheaper
but lower quality goods.

There likely is also a non-trivial nationalism effect here. I don't think this
has anything to do with the relative quality of product.

------
blaser-waffle
Heard good things about the Kia Soul Electric and the Hyunadi Kona EV. If I
lived somewhere that is not deeply involved in oil production -- and thus not
friendly to EVs -- I'd consider the Kona. Not a lot of storage space, though,
and I don't believe the performance matches Tesla.

I'm still not sold on Teslas, too much hype and questionable behavior on
Musk's part, but if they keep delivering I'd think about them in the future
(again, pending leaving Oil Country).

VW lost my trust after Dieselgate.

~~~
gnicholas
I think the Kona looks great and I’ve heard good things about Hyundai in
general. But the exploding battery pack gives me pause. [1]

Hopefully it was a one-off thing and their recent update [2] will prevent
future problems. But still, I won’t be buying one until a couple years have
passed with no more incidents like this.

1: [https://www.carandbike.com/news/hyundai-kona-electric-
explod...](https://www.carandbike.com/news/hyundai-kona-electric-explodes-in-
owners-garage-in-canada-automaker-launches-investigation-2078409)

2: [https://insideevs.com/news/428159/hyundai-updates-battery-
mo...](https://insideevs.com/news/428159/hyundai-updates-battery-monitoring-
system-fire/)

------
TeeWEE
Tesla is still biggest in Netherlands, but mainly because for Leasing it got
tax incentives until 01- 2020

[https://nederlandelektrisch.nl/actueel/verkoopcijfers](https://nederlandelektrisch.nl/actueel/verkoopcijfers)

Tesla cars are still considered expensive and viewed as having low build
quality.Especially the first model 3's and the Model X's.

German cars are hard to beat regarding build quality.

~~~
jiofih
Doesn’t the tax benefit apply to all EVs? Why would it benefit Tesla alone?

~~~
TeeWEE
All EV's below a certain price point. But the tax benefit has been cut
partially.

------
DrBazza
VW are offering the Up and Golf which are small and mid-sized EV vehicles
which are a lot cheaper than Tesla's larger saloons.

They're town cars, vs. motorway/freeway/autobahn Teslas. I suppose it's also
about range too. You don't need the range in a town or city, so a smaller
cheaper EV works fine.

~~~
reallydontask
The Golf is not a town car in Europe

------
qaq
even model 3 is huge compared to most cars on the road here.

------
HPsquared
It's the iPhone atory all over again.

~~~
outside1234
Who is the iPhone manufacture in that framing? Is it BMW? Or Tesla?

~~~
HPsquared
Tesla, having the first real breakthrough game-changer product in a new
category. Various clones then start to appear at lower price points, then
start to compete on quality. iPhone/Tesla continues to sell well, but is no
longer dominant.

------
Aviatore
Does anyone know exactly what is happening here? It feels like some of their
competitors may be selling their cars at a more affordable price due to
levies/import costs + perceived brand value for European, Korean and Japanese
products. I might be off the handle on this one. Also, if this trend
continues, how will TSLA pricing remain so high once the hype simmers.

~~~
actuator
I think it might just be simply cars available at different price points which
give a good value proposition for that price. Tesla starts at 44k euros in
Germany, there is plenty of space to undercut that. It is happening in a lot
of countries now with a myriad of automakers coming up with EV models.

Also, not all of them have to match Tesla on either range/performance. If they
can get 90% of the performance at say 70% of the price, it is a good buy. Auto
market has always been competitive on price.

------
picodguyo
As a Tesla owner, I welcome the competition and hope it comes to America soon.
I like my M3 but do not like driving an expensive car seen as a status symbol.
My criteria are 300 miles of range and large enough for a family and
unfortunately there aren't many options today.

------
valuearb
Tesla is being CRUSHED because a bunch of new entrants started selling EVs in
lower price points, causing the market to GROW 68% which is BAD for Tesla for
some reason.

Will the shorts ever quit? Sure Tesla sales dropped 20% in one unique market
that is home to their biggest competitors. Those competitors finally got their
EV act together and are targeting bigger markets with cheaper cars. But German
consumers are going to be especially biased towards VW, BMW, and Hitlers Staff
car maker. My dad worked for VW in in the US, so I never drove a non German
car till I was in my late 20s.

