

There are 100 million electric bikes in China - ca98am79
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1904334,00.html

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felipe
> "The Chinese have a hundred million people on electric bikes," says
> Jamerson. "That means a hundred million potential customers" for electric
> cars.

That's the kind of absurd and ill-informed thinking that brought GM to
bankruptcy (and yes, this guy is a former GM employee). I moved to China a
month ago, and I was astonished to see the number of e-bikes here. There are a
lot of cars too, but they are clearly not practical. While US is designed for
cars (highways, suburbia life, big stores with parking, etc...) in China
owning a car seems extremely inconvenient: No places to park, horrendous
traffic jams, stress, narrow streets, not even mentioning the cost of the car
itself and maintenance.

In the city I live (Shenyang) a bus ride is 1 yuan (US$0.14). A taxi ride is
between 8 to 20 yuan (US$3). Plenty of streets have bike lanes and every store
has free bike / e-bike parking. The ROI in owning a car must be ridiculous,
and it is very inconvenient.

To believe that every e-bike owner one day will be a electric car owner is
totally naive IMO.

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garply
I live in Beijing. You would have to pay me to own a car here. The traffic
absolutely terrifies me.

I'm aso pretty certain renting (i.e. using a taxi here all the time) is
cheaper than owning in this case. And who doesn't like being chauffered
around?

All that said, I don't think people buy cars here so much for convenience as
for status.

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electromagnetic
Actually me and my wife worked it out for suburban Canada for one person. It
turned out its significantly cheaper monthly to use taxi's for all work travel
than owning even a cheap vehicle (not including tax, fuel, maintenance etc, we
did solely the 0% finance price for the duration of the warrenty). Assuming
the number of trips double after work, I think it just broke the 0% finance
price for monthly travel, again not including anything at all.

However, bus prices are at least 1/3 as that for a taxi; her work is
approximately $10 a trip, bus is $2.75 per trip. It works out to $20 a day for
taxi ($25 on a bad day), $5.50 a day for bus.

I'd say almost everywhere, people buy cars for status and not convenience. I'd
say it's a different matter when rural, but in the city it's certainly a
status symbol. I frequently see people driving a $50,000 SUV on their own, yet
I've been quoted $75 a day for a 7 seat SUV, which is pricey monthly, but dirt
cheap in the long run if your vehicle is regularly a 1 person car.

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yannis
This must be a great business opportunity! What do electric bikes need?

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freetard
electricity

~~~
yannis
Free electricity!

~~~
joeyo
Solar cells over back tire, then?

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abalashov
The energy ROI on that surface area of photovolcaic cells would not make that
feasible.

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TweedHeads
How different is an electric bicycle from an electric motorcycle?

See, I rather ride an electric hayabusa or a ninja.

Before, there was a difference between them, now that both can be powered by
electricity the line blurs.

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dublinclontarf
The only real difference is the electric bike has some stubby pedals. The
reality is that those moving up from electric bike will be moving up to
motorcycles. Can't beat two wheels with Chinese traffic. Nanchang resident 6
years, electric bike user 4 years, motorcycle resident in 6 months.

