
Early climate models successfully predicted global warming - eaguyhn
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00243-w
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spodek
_Limits to Growth_
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth)
didn't try to predict specifics so much as find trends, which they did, like
overshoot and collapse, the counterintuitive effects of technology and
innovation, the importance of population, goals, and values.

Nonetheless, their Business As Usual model from 1972 is eerily accurate and it
applies to more than just climate. This study
[https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-
pap...](https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-papers/is-
global-collapse-imminent) tracked predictions to 2014 and the Business As
Usual model continues with reasonable accuracy.

That's not good news for its predictions for the next few decades, at least
not if you like food and a stable human population.

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pstuart
My fear is that the models have been too conservative.

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dirtydroog
To be honest, your fear is being realised since every couple of weeks or so,
there's an 'X worse than previously thought' article about something.

~~~
pstuart
My fear is being realized because the evidence is in plain sight: coral
bleaching, ocean acidification impacting sea-life, record heat waves, etc.

Trivializing it by making my comment into nothing more than overreacting to
tabloid journalism is insulting.

