
Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think - jseliger
http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-electric-cars-will-be-here-sooner-than-you-think-1472402674
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kylec
I was talking to my father a few weeks ago about electric cars, and I wanted
to quantify how much going electric would save him so I ran some numbers.
Where he lives gas is currently somewhere around $2.20/gallon. His car gets
around 30mpg combined, so he's paying ~$0.073/mile.

Tesla's website contains a "charging estimator" for the Model S, which
estimates a cost of $12.04 for a total charge of 300 miles in a 90D. In the
fine print, they state that the calculation is based off of the assumption of
$0.12/kWh cost for electricity, which works out to a total of 100kWh to fully
charge a 90D to 300 miles of range. However, he pays far more than $0.12/kWh -
he actually pays $0.22/kWh. This means that the fuel cost of the Model S for
him is exactly the same: ~$0.073/mile.

I write this to say that I had always assumed that electricity was far cheaper
than gasoline, and I was surprised when I ran the numbers and saw that it
wasn't. It seems that articles like this assume that _of course_ people will
switch to electric cars in droves once the cars get cheap enough and the range
is good enough, but unless electricity becomes cheaper or gas becomes more
expensive, many people, like my father, will choose to continue to drive gas-
powered cars.

~~~
evandijk70
I guess it makes a lot more sense to own an electric car in Europe, where
gasoline prices are around 1,50 euro per liter, or $6,50/gallon, while
electricity prices are around $0.20/kWh.

Still, recharging an electric car is still a lot more inconvenient than
refueling a normal car.

~~~
petra
But the tax difference is just temporary - if EV's become popular - charging
will be taxed too.

~~~
kylec
I think it would be impossible to tax charging (how would you know if someone
is charging off the grid via solar?), but you could probably institute some
sort of per-mile charge when renewing the car registration.

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andykellr
Unless Tesla goes out of business and nobody manages to produce a similar
electric car, I will never buy a gas car again. Electric cars are quick, fun,
quiet, clean, safe, and convenient. It would feel like a big step backwards
for me to buy a gas car again.

They're not for everyone right now and I think it will take a long time to
reach significant penetration, but more people will try it and many will never
go back.

~~~
thinkcontext
The Chevy Bolt will beat the Model 3 to market and have similar specs, ~$37K
and 200 mile range.

~~~
james-watson
The BlackBerry was also the first widely adopted smartphone. Many experts
laughed at Apple's attempt to enter the phone industry.

------
foxylad
I just bought a 2014 Nissan Leaf. It's excellent and I'd recommend one (with a
couple of caveats, see below).

A few (hopefully) interesting comments:

 _There 's no premium for being "cool" or "green" any more._ It cost 26,000
NZD for a 2014 Japanese import, which is about the same as an ICE (internal
combustion engine) two-year-year-old mid-level vehicle costs (yes, NZ car
prices _are_ mad). And I'm guessing the trend will continue and they will soon
be significantly cheaper.

 _The real savings will come from maintenance._ Apart from battery chemistry,
an EV is far simpler than an ICE. You don't need to pump noxious fluids
around, no oil, no complex transmission... just an electric motor connected
directly to the wheels. Not even any brake pads, thanks to engine braking. If
you know a mechanic, tell them to start pivoting to ICE car rental for EV
owners wanting to take long trips; EV battery replacement; charging station
installation; and providing a mobile EV fast-charging service.

 _It 's just a car._ If you buy one expecting a radically different
experience, it might be an anticlimax. Yes, it's cool the first couple of
times you roar off (great acceleration, BTW) without any roar, but you quickly
realise it's the exact same thing you've done thousands of times before. Your
granddad won't have any difficulty the first time he drives one.

Caveats:

 _You need off street parking._ I don't think it's ever going to be acceptable
to run electric cables across footpaths, so unless you can park on own your
property you'll need to figure out how to charge the darn thing. Maybe
chargers will become a perk of working in an office one day, and there is
probably a good business in installing charging stations for employers and
shopping destinations.

 _They aren 't good for long distances._ Duh. Unless you have a Tesla, in
which case I hate you! You will probably be able to use an EV for 95% of your
driving, but you will have to have a contingency plan for any long trips you
make. Currently we find neighbours are more than willing to swap their ICE car
for an EV for the weekend, but I think there is potential for a very local car
hire service to handle this requirement.

~~~
mikestew
One small correction: your Leaf has brake pads.

~~~
foxylad
Thanks for your undeniably better-informed comment.

Would I be right that regenerative braking should substantially reduce brake
pad wear?

~~~
Gibbon1
My boss has a Prius. Had to replace the front brake pads at 120,000 miles.
Rear ones supposedly good for a while longer.

~~~
LoSboccacc
Meh. I've a 3.2L alfa gt having 120k km. Front pads got changed at 100k
because they were getting old and hard, not because consumption. Rear pads are
still stock. Got one spark plug and belt change at 90k km, anticipated because
I did extra maintenance after a track days season.

Maintenance is baskcally changing oil every two year.

That's to say veihcle that are cheap to maintain are easily found if that's a
priority, even amongst unexpected make/models.

~~~
Gibbon1
100,000 km is 62000 miles. My bosses Prius had 120,000 miles, so 193,000 km.

You want crying my old E150 cargo van eats a set of pads every 15-20,000
miles.

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dpweb
All for electric cars here, but think a minute about the convienence of
gasoline auto travel, especially refueling at a gas station. They must get
electric charging stations everywhere, but they also must reduce the 30 to 60
min. Recharging time. Gas is what 2 minutes? Especially in the age of tech and
gadgets people will not stand for LESS convienence, only more. Replacing gas
will take a while.

~~~
hyperbovine
> Gas is what 2 minutes?

Depends quite a lot on where you are. There are 12 gas stations south of 96th
St. in Manhattan. SF will have lost 40% of the service stations it had 10
years ago as of 2017. Boston, same. The gas station at Divisadero and Fell has
what looks like a 20 minute wait at all times. This is all due to real estate
prices. Getting gas in affluent coastal metropolises is not a pleasant
experience. Not coincidentally, these are the same people who are buying
electric cars.

~~~
honkhonkpants
20 minutes is still 30x faster than charging. And how many charging stations
do you think there are south of 96th street?

~~~
toomuchtodo
Tesla charging stations outnumber gas stations in Manhattan. Guess which will
continue to decrease in number and which will continue to be deployed.

[http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/225088-tesla-charging-
sta...](http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/225088-tesla-charging-stations-
outnumber-gas-stations-in-manhattan)

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teach
> By comparison, the average new car in the U.S. today sells for about
> $33,000.

That may be the mean but I'll bet it's nowhere near the median.

~~~
gremlinsinc
yeah, and maybe they should factor in the average car bought and sold, there's
still a LOT of car owners/buyers that stick to the used lots.

~~~
Gibbon1
You can buy a fairly low mileage used Nissan Leaf for approximately $10,000
right now. Look on Craigslist take your pick. For the life of me I cannot
imagine why you wouldn't be able to buy the same cars for $5,000 five years
from now.

~~~
ourmandave
The warranty on the battery pack is 60 months / 60,000 miles. A replacement
battery costs $5,500 plus taxes and labor. I wonder how many on Craigslist
don't want to write that check.

~~~
Gibbon1
A fair number of vehicles on Craigslist at the $10k price range have 20-40k
miles on them. More than likely the battery will last 100k/10 years. Unlikely
someone selling a leaf with 25k miles on it is doing so because they fear the
replacement cost of a new battery.

Also, replacement battery costs are dropping year by year. So if one bought a
used leaf, drove it for five years and replaced the battery you wouldn't pay
$5500.

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bitL
"Sooner" \- I thought it would happen in 2012 when in Germany one of their
largest energy provider "secretly" built a network of chargers which are more-
less unused today.

Also, Lithium is a finite element, battery production causes quite a lot of
environmental damage during extraction, manufacturing and disposal (of course
not amortized to future necessary environmental cleanup, but who cares about a
remote place in Zimbabwe?), all of them energetically demanding as well and
the proposed scheme of paying $80/month flat fee for a battery swap as well as
electricity costs might not come cheaper than fossil fuels...

~~~
PhantomGremlin
_battery production causes quite a lot of environmental damage during
extraction_

Do you have a link to more info about this? My idealized view is that Lithium
is more-or-less there for the taking.[1] E.g. here is what SQM says:

 _Salar brines are pumped from beneath the saline crust in two different areas
of the salar. In one of them, extracted salar brines contain unprecedented
concentration levels of potassium and lithium._

 _salar brines are located in SQM 's solar evaporation ponds that cover 1,700
hectares approximately. Atacama Desert is the driest place on earth, with a
solar evaporation index of 3,200 millimeters and average precipitations of
only 15 millimeters per year. This results in an extremely efficient process
of solar energy concentration_

Neither "pumping" nor "solar evaporation" seem to be so environmentally
damaging. But the devil is in the details, is it not?

Also, lithium will eventually be recycled, much like current lead-acid car
batteries are.

[1] [http://www.sqm.com/en-
us/acercadesqm/recursosnaturales/salmu...](http://www.sqm.com/en-
us/acercadesqm/recursosnaturales/salmuera.aspx)

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SamPhillips
One interesting development is that I see the small "Nissan Leaf" style
electrics competing against electric bikes now for the "second car / commuter
car" role. For 1/10th the price ($4000) you can get a very top-of-the-line
electric bike which is free to park, doesn't get stuck in traffic, has no
regulatory costs, more flexibly to charge (removable battery), etc, etc. Of
course it also has downsides (weather, exercise, safety), but I see those
bikes more and more around Cambridge and they seem to make a lot of sense.

~~~
clarry
I mostly commute by cycling, and would like to consider an electric for longer
commutes. There are a few problems, but the biggest one I'm concerned about is
theft. It's so darn easy to steal a bike and get away with it.

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fma
I was looking at buying a new car recently. I wanted a commuter car while my
wife kept the utilitarian Rav 4. I wanted to buy the GM Spark, the electric
version.

[http://www.chevrolet.com/spark-ev-electric-
vehicle.html](http://www.chevrolet.com/spark-ev-electric-vehicle.html)

The irony being that a car named Spark originally isn't electric, but only in
certain markets.

~~~
haddr
Spark is somehow crucial in traditional car engines...

~~~
foobarian
...and doesn't exist in electric cars.

~~~
jeffbush
hopefully! :)

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rob74
So, a plug-in hybrid will be lugging around a gas engine and (probably full)
gas tank which it won't be needing for 90% of all trips. Am I the only one who
thinks this is terribly inefficient?

~~~
antisthenes
Not as inefficient as using a 1.5 ton vehicle to move 1 person around.

It's somewhat ironic to see that question posed as a genuine concern, when
presumably you already made the choice to travel by automobile, the least
efficient form of transportation.

~~~
loco5niner
Least efficient in economic/environmental terms, not necessarily in
time/safety terms.

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mac01021
> In part, this is because electric cars are gadgets, and technological change
> in gadgets is rapid.

Does anyone take this to be valid logic? It doesn't seem like a very useful
analysis to me.

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cloudjacker
Because it's already late 2016 and we always expected them by 2018?

