

Millennials Lead the Trend to Less Driving. Will It Last? - hispanic
http://www.theatlanticcities.com/commute/2013/05/planning-our-transportation-future-millennials-mind/5575/

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freehunter
>It’s not entirely clear, though, exactly why this has happened

Really? It's not clear why miles traveled has gone down since 2004? Line up
these graphs for the last 10 years [1]. Or perhaps this one [2].

Gas prices are at record levels since 2004, and unemployment among the 16-24
year old population has skyrocketed. It's not any wonder why millennials are
driving less. They can't _afford_ to drive more. The rising cost of college is
putting even more strain on the pocketbooks of the young work force. The
article seems to want to attribute this trend to one source and no more than
one source. The real world doesn't work that way.

[1] <http://gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx>

[2] [http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/12/22/the-
global-...](http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/12/22/the-global-youth-
unemployment-crisis/)

~~~
Anechoic
_The article seems to want to attribute this trend to one source and no more
than one source._

? The article calls gas prices _twice_ as well as other economic problems as
reasons for the decline. For example: "Researchers have not yet been able to
disaggregate how much of our current decline in driving has been attributable
to gas prices, or the economy, or changing attitudes toward car ownership or
urban living"

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freehunter
It does say that, yes. It also says that it's not known why, and it says that
further up the article than any facts. They're implying that because
researchers are looking at multiple factors they have yet to filter it down to
one specific cause. I'm not discounting the researchers. I'm discounting the
article, and their false sense of mystery behind this trend.

~~~
scott_s
I don't think that implication is the author's intention. I read that as an
opening to say "researchers are still investigating the causes", not
"researchers have not yet found _the_ cause."

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saintx
I have a license, and my wife has a car, but I don't drive. Haven't, with some
exceptions on vacations and long road trips, since about 1998. Having grown up
in a rural community where driving was compulsory, I made it a goal, upon
moving to a large city to attend University, that I would live close to
grocery stores, restaurants, and my workplace so that I could walk and ride my
bicycle to work and class. It was a conscious lifestyle choice, and I still
adhere to it, 15 years later.

Side benefits are immense. I walk or ride somewhere in the neighborhood of 700
miles each year. Overall, the pedestrian commute energizes me in the morning,
and helps me quickly recover and decompress at the end of the day. The money
that would otherwise go into a second vehicle, fuel, insurance, and
maintenance instead goes toward higher quality food.

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VLM
"I walk or ride somewhere in the neighborhood of 700 miles each year."

"The money that would otherwise go into a second vehicle"

I don't think you're going to like the math very much.

700 miles divided by 4 mph which is real slow for a bike (maybe up a hill?) or
real fast for a walker, times maybe $100/hr as a consultant, equals about
$17500/yr or about $1450 per month. You can rent a decent new Porsche 911 for
about one grand per month as per leasetrader, so ... More realistically
selections of vehicle and billable rate scale hand in hand. Or if you like a
cost basis, my cost per mile has averaged under fifty cents per mile for my
car so you're talking about around a buck per day, which buys like one organic
apple around here. Which is better for you than no organic apples. I'm just
saying the extra food probably isn't enough to fatten you up.

Note I walk about most nights after dinner and also after lunch. For health,
and fun. Have to be realistic that neither of us are saving any money doing
so. Long term medical bills, maybe.

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mlwarren
~700 miles each year is about 2 miles each day. Presumably if saintx hadn't
structured his or her life around maintaining walkability then it would be
necessary to travel longer distances each day. This would drive the total cost
up. I don't know anyone who owns a car and only drives 700 miles each year.

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VLM
"I don't know anyone who owns a car and only drives 700 miles each year."

My grandma and mother in law resemble that remark. Once you get old enough
that shopping is an agony instead of a fun hobby, and you no longer work,
there's not much but Dr visits. Also beyond a certain age people expect to
drive to visit you rather than you drive to visit them, sign of respect or
whatever. Finally, much like maintaining / living in a suburban single family
house, still being able to drive a car at advanced age becomes a status symbol
rather than a tool or recreation. "I might be old, but I'm still healthy
enough to drive that thing... if I wanted to" An 80 year old woman in a
suburban house, with a car, is pretty much the same mentality as a 40 yr old
dude with red sports car and girlfriend half his age.

~~~
mlwarren
Sorry. What I meant was I don't know anyone who owns a car and is able to
charge a $100/hr consulting rate and only drives 700 miles each year. Barring
edge cases, I expect the usage pattern for the average person for car driving
is >700 miles per year.

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superuser2
With expensive safety features and the increasing cost of college, we are no
longer in a world where most middle-class teenagers could realistically save
up for and purchase a (reasonably safe) car. My parents wouldn't want me in
something without a strong frame, airbags, ABS, and traction control. That
puts the minimum cost of safe car at more like $5,000 than $500.

If I ever see that much money in one place (I haven't), it'll go straight to
my tuition bill. No way could my family justify spending that much on my
entertainment. And even if it never needed repairs, I doubt I'd break even on
driving to a minimum-wage job for 2-3 years.

Owning and taking pride in our cars is not a part of life for teenagers in my
town like it was for my parents in the 60s and 70s. Things have changed, and I
think college and car ownership costs are a major factor.

~~~
maxerickson
That's a rather strong definition of reasonably safe. I will certainly push
back on traction control, in situations where it impacts safety more than
handling, a teenager will generally have the flexibility to just stay off the
road (which is even safer).

ABS is a little more in the middle, but a safe driving mentality will provide
a lot more safety than ABS, so I probably wouldn't look at it as make or break
for a teenager car.

All cars have reasonably strong frames. Safer modern vehicles generally gain
some of that safety by crumpling, which they do by being weaker than their
predecessors. A Model T would bounce off a tree at moderate speed...

~~~
superuser2
I live in the Wisconsin, where snow and ice do make safety features that
improve handling a bit more important than they might be in the Valley. A safe
driving mentality only goes so far when the roads are coated in ice for the
several months.

By strong frame I mean a car that hasn't been in a serious collision yet.

~~~
maxerickson
I learned to drive in the U.P.

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chasb
Also: In 2010, the median marriage age was over 26 for women and over 28 for
men. More and more young people are staying in cities, where cars are much
less necessary.

[http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-
economy/2012/09/ne...](http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-
economy/2012/09/next-big-question-facing-cities-will-millennials-stay/3229/)

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jryan49
I'm a Millennial. I went to college in a city, and happened to just stay
(halfly because I'm sick of suburbia). I use public transit to go everywhere.
I make enough money to buy a car, but I don't need it.

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gavinlynch
Sure it'll last. Until they have children.

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bearmf
Because it is impossible to have children without a car. Right!

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gavinlynch
That's correct. It's just solid, non-debatable science.

:p

But seriously, unless you have the perfect storm of public transportation
systems and public schooling systems, you're either getting a car to shuttle
your kids to school or you move to the suburbs for better public schooling.

Of course there are exceptions. I'm talking trends, as this article is.

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bjterry
In the unknowable category, it seems like the availability of self-driving
cars will drastically change the cost-benefits ratio of driving and could
easily lead to a dramatic increase. Are you really going to want to fly from
San Francisco to Los Angeles, spending 2+ hours in transit time, when you
could get in your personal car, browse the internet or read a newspaper for
the 6 hours you'd spend driving?

I strongly suspect that any theories that we will be driving less will go out
the window in the next decade or two.

~~~
freehunter
Proponents of self driving cars seem to be forgetting the story that electric
cars are telling us right now. People (en masse) will choose the immediately
cheaper and more entrenched option. Maybe an electric car will save you
hundreds on your gas and maintenance bills. But it's also $5000 more upfront.
So people are not buying electric cars, even with all the studies showing that
a great number of people will not lose anything by being range-limited.

Will self-driving cars cost as much as gasoline cars? As much as electric
cars? Or will they cost more than both option? So pulling numbers out of my
ass: who is going to be buying a $50,000 self driving car when they can get
the electric option for $40,000 and the gas option for $35,000? We can't even
get them to buy electric.

~~~
bjterry
That is a true point for the first years that self-driving cars exist, but it
is not true on the timescale of a couple decades. The first Tesla Roadster was
delivered in July of 2009, and they are going to ship 20,000 cars this year
(compare with 5 million light vehicle sales in the last 12 months, for the
sake of honesty in statistics), in an environment where their car is at a
significant disadvantage due to lack of infrastructure. The first self-driving
car will be expensive, but eventually it won't be, and eventually it will have
a huge impact on people's driving habits. Unless everyone stars telecommuting,
which is a social change that will probably happen slower than technological
changes, I don't see how miles driven per year would reasonably go down.

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alloftheabove
Will they also lead the trend in riding in cars that drive themselves?

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jeffasinger
Maybe, but my theory is that this stems from a couple of factors: 1) Higher
driving costs, and lower incomes/ higher unemployment. 2) Less appeal of
consumerist lifestyle 3) Preference for walkable neighborhoods 4) Strong
avoidance of situations that involve drinking and driving

Only the last one is a case that they'll be interested in self driving cars.

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petercooper
I hope so. Clearer roads for those of us who like driving. Vrrrrooom!

