
Coronavirus: First case confirmed in Santa Clara County - axiom92
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/01/31/santa-clara-coronavirus/
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dan-robertson
It seems to me likely that the number of reported cases of this virus is much
lower than the actual number. There are various plausible reasons, eg
incubation periods, people not going to the doctors with flu like symptoms,
authorities wanting to look in control of the situation.

A reason that might be bad is that it implies the virus is more contagious or
at least more widespread than previously thought[1], and therefore more people
will suffer from it.

A reason that might be good is that it could imply that the virus is much less
deadly than previously thought[1], assuming that the deaths aren’t
underreported in the same proportion as infections.

I don’t really have any intuition as to which of these effects is more
significant.

[1] I think studies probably try to take underreporting into account and so by
“previously thought,” I mean naïvely implied by the statistics.

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istorical
The number of reported cases in China is pretty much unanimously understood to
be dramatically undercounted because there is simply a tremendous shortage of
testing kits. There are videos showing nurses in Wuhan hospitals bemoaning
this and social media posts suggesting this, patients are being turned away
unless they are dying to go home and self isolate and rest, in some cases
receiving injections daily but otherwise being told to return home.

Firsthand accounts by local journalists are one of the best ways we have to
understand what's actually going on behind the Great Firewall of journalism.

One of the best is this semi-celebrity lawyer/journalist in Wuhan who is
leaking video to YouTube visiting the outbreak hospitals (he's also pretty
much a wanted man at this point by Chinese authorities), you can turn on
subtitles for English:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AI3R41dGnU&ab_channel=Coron...](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AI3R41dGnU&ab_channel=CoronavirusLiveArchive)

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amylene
These firsthand accounts are great for identifying potentially systemic issues
that could cause under reporting. However, other than pointing to
directionality, it is dangerous to use them to estimate the magnitude.

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cliqueiq
> systemic issues

I like that euphemism

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gdubs
Bay Area parent here. This has been a _rough_ cold and flu season. Schools
send regular notices to families reminding people to keep their kids home if
they’re showing signs of illness: fever, runny nose, coughing, etc. This is a
good reminder to follow that guidance! Many kids have infant siblings or older
relatives at home who are vulnerable.

It’s hard, I realize. In this country a lot of people rely on schools as a
form of day care — that’s a whole different conversation. Hopefully as more
data comes in we’ll find this particular virus to be mild. But either way,
let’s all try and do our part to keep everyone healthy.

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pmoriarty
Something else to keep in mind is the importance of frequent hand washing, as
skin contact is how these viruses spread in the absence of coughing and
sneezing.

Hands should be washed for 20 seconds, all the way up to the wrist.

Frequent hand washing could cause skin dryness and cracking, so you might want
to only use mild hand soap. I've found that the soaps with the fewest
ingredients work best. You could also try applying moisturizer to your hands
afterwards.

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foxyv
It's good to see all these cases are from people visiting China and not
secondary cases from within the US. It suggests that the virus may not be
contagious during the long incubation period like Chickenpox. That will make a
huge difference in the speed at which is spreads preventing the huge flood of
cases that we would see otherwise.

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gteqlt
Would a regional (or national) "work remotely" two week period every year help
to reduce (eliminate?) the flu virus or something like coronavirus?

Probably there would have to be some skeleton crew of people keeping basic
stuff running, but maybe those people could be heavily screened first.

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Thespian2
Many jobs can't be done "remotely." What about food service, cooks and
waiters? Delivery people? Doctors, surgeons?

Randel Munroe of XKCD fame walks through this scenario in his "What If" book.

Link to sample on books.google.com

[https://books.google.com/books?id=tgZIBAAAQBAJ&printsec=fron...](https://books.google.com/books?id=tgZIBAAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=what+if&hl=en&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiqmuXKhK_nAhXdGjQIHUSSCusQ6AEwAHoECAAQAg#v=onepage&q=what%20if%20virus&f=false)

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armatav
But.. It does say he's been self-isolating and only leaving to see the doctor.
Thankfully.

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14
Well let’s hope that means something. Restaurants also have health rules they
are required by law to follow set up to help save lives from things like food
poisoning yet I can go to my local health authority website and look at the
violations from all the local restaurants. My point is if we are relying on
people to self isolate I am less then hopeful. How did he get to that doctor?
Did he use effective isolation techniques the whole way along? I know from
working in the hospital the gown and gloving procedure before entering and
leaving an isolation room is something I had to train to do and took reading
and thought. Does this guy have that training? Let’s hope.

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fortran77
One of the many Asian shopping centers near me in Santa Clara County (Wolf
Road, Cupertino) was much emptier tonight than it usually is. I think people
are staying home out of fear.

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kinguking
Everyone should start wearing face mask especially during commute hours if you
are taking public transportation like Bart of CalTrain now that the virus has
reached the Bay Area. With the peak load of passengers even if one is infected
then I could only hope that god bless us all :(

