
How Bad Entrepreneurial Judgment Killed Half-Life 3 - jjordan
https://mises.org/blog/how-bad-entrepreneurial-judgment-killed-half-life-3
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accountface
Interesting that there isn't anyone at Valve that feels enough ownership to
the franchise to push it along.

It seems like if you threw a compelling script into a development studio it
would be hard NOT to make it happen... there's such a desire for it (but maybe
that's also scary now).

On the other hand... I guess a huge part of Valve isn't a development studio
these days and a lot of their development projects involve short-term
profitability vs long-term investments (DOTA kind of is/isn't an exception to
that).

I also wonder if the flat "do something good for the company" structure cramps
the creative process a bit — if someone tools around with an idea for a year
without anything beyond concept work to show for it... is that welcome at
Valve? or would it be perceived as a burden by others who are working on
short-term projects?

I do recall there being a previous falling-out there with an employee doing
R&D hardware work (was it VR related? I can't remember)

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rawnlq
Gabe Newell is doing an AMA on reddit later today:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Gaben/comments/5o8fsy/gabe_l_ne...](https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Gaben/comments/5o8fsy/gabe_l_newell_will_be_joining_us_tuesday_the_17th/)

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cezar_sl
When asked about rumors about HL3 begin canceled today he responded :

"I personally believe all unidentified anonymous sources on the Internet".

source:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Gaben/comments/5olhj4/hi_im_gab...](https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Gaben/comments/5olhj4/hi_im_gabe_newell_ama/dck9hyk/?context=10000)

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Impossible
Although I know gamers and fans want HL3, and I say this as a huge Half-Life
fan, I can't imagine a scenario where releasing Half-Life 3 would be a good
business decision for Valve.

Releasing Half-Life 3 or episode 3 in 2008-2010 could have been good for
Valve, in the sense that it would tie up lose ends in the story for players
and would have sold well enough to be profitable. At this point Half-Life 3 is
the most hyped game that has never existed and it'd be very hard for them to
live up to most people's expectations. Valve is a pretty data driven company,
and they have a lot of data about what sells and what players are playing. I
don't think it's coincidence that most of the top played and top grossing
games on Steam are Valve games and that Valve has moved away from single
player games in favor of multiplayer games as a service.

There haven't been many commercially successful single player only, or
primarily single player AAA campaign based first person shooters in recent
history. Half-Life 3 could probably follow the model of last year's Doom and
be successful, but it wouldn't live up to a lot of people's expectations.
Doing something weirder, niche, outside of the box or supporting Valve's new
business models (making HL3 VR only or a online competitive multiplayer or
sandbox game) would alienate people, even if the game is amazing and
innovative, because its once again not what they want from a Half-Life game. I
don't believe Valve can make a Half-Life game without angering a large segment
of fan base and ending up in a No Man Sky type situation. The cost of AAA
single player games has skyrocketed as well, so I'm not sure if Valve wants to
hire and spend the money on Half-Life 3 in terms of production values and
content. Maybe eventually there will be an HL3 once Valve creates a game
making AI that can read your mind and perfectly tailor a game to your
expectations :). Valve could also make "Half-Life 3" without calling it Half-
Life 3, I guess.

That Valve has not released HL3 and probably never will shows a strength in
their business and business model, not an inability to execute or a flaw.
Current day Valve is not the same company that made Half-Life and Half-Life 2,
but I think they foster innovation and high quality games in a more impactful
way (Steam, hardware, VR, etc.)

~~~
eridius
They could avoid the hype situation by just releasing HL3 without any buildup.
Drop it on us out of the blue. Sure, it wouldn't live up to many people's
(unrealistic) expectations, but they wouldn't have an NMS problem because
nobody would have pre-ordered it, or been actively anticipating it before
release. It would just be out, and people could buy it, or they could read
reviews first, or whatever else they want to do before plunking down their
money for a copy.

That said, I agree that Valve will probably never release HL3. There's not
much benefit to doing so at this point, and it will likely piss off a lot of
gamers when the game doesn't match their expectations.

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captainmuon
An interesting tidbit about Valve is that for some time, Yannis Varoufakis
worked there, before he became the finance minister of Greece. He became of
course (in)famous for his work in the left-wing government, his rejection of
the "troika"'s demands, and being one of very few influtential economists with
a Marxist background (not to speak of his unconventional style). But before
that, he was advising Valve on virtual enconomies (I think for Team Fortress
2).

So, I wonder if there is any connection between Valve's unconventional
organisational structure, and the fact that they attracted this influential
left-wing thinker. What I heard about Valve reminds me of some left-wing
cooperatives I know in Europe (factories, shops, farms, ...), where the
employees share ownership and decision making. Unfortunately, many of those
struggle with similar problems - but not all, some are also fairly successful.

I don't think there is neccessarily a left-wing or liberal political idea
going on at Valve, but probably there was a kind of co-evolution of this
hierarchy-less idea in tech and in leftist circles? A quick google search
suggests that Varoufakis (who blogged about his time at Valve) was aware of
this similarity.

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Synaesthesia
I believe he was doing an academic study of the economics of in-game purchases
with them.

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quantumhobbit
This just confirms what I have always suspected. That Valve's flat structure
couldn't get people to work on it.

Which is a shame because even an inferior hl3 would have been guaranteed to
make money. Hell they couldn't even finish hl2 episode3.

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bmh_ca
Perhaps they should sell the rights to another developer. I wonder how that
would work in the flat structure.

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tapoxi
I believe this was actually the case, Arkane Studios was contracted to work on
a Half-Life title before they were purchased by ZeniMax

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rvlouie
(And how Valve doesn't care since Steam prints money.)

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Thaxll
People don't understand that Valve is not really a video game company anymore.

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theandrewbailey
That's vague (thus arguably incorrect). Valve makes a video game every few
years, and sells more video games except for about five other companies.

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Impossible
This is commonly mentioned on the internet because Valve puts a lot of effort
into Steam and hardware, but they also have (at least) three games in active
development that are among the top grossing games on Steam, and among the top
grossing and most played PC games.

No one would say, Blizzard, Riot, Supercell or Machine Zone aren't game
companies because they rarely release new games and most of their revenue
comes from a few, large player count (or high monetizing), consistently played
games. I've taken it mostly as code for "Valve doesn't release Half-Life or
Portal games as much as I'd like" :).

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gumby
This is consistent with discussions I've had with various Valve employees and
former employees over the years. If you want your project to succeed you need
to evangelize it within the company and get people to join you. Which is a lot
of work!

Note: I have never worked at valve!! Though I visit friends there from time to
time.

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ttoinou
I'm glad they never released HL3 yet ; maybe they (collectively ?) feel they
need to find something really new and exciting before releasing a new HL.

I'm really interested in understanding/criticising Valve flat management but
this article doesn't seem to make a good argument

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francasso
So what? They couldn't be bothered to create another sequel. They went on and
did something different. That is admirable, not something to frown upon...

Many economists don't have a clue...

~~~
gdulli
That's also something the article mentions. If you're not going to read it,
indignant superiority is a risky attitude to project.

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zekevermillion
I'd like to see more of the concept art from episode 3! Less talk, more art
please!

Anyway, Valve can always do another sequel, I don't think age will make that
any worse an opportunity.

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microtherion
Libertarians discovering the benefits of central planning… film at 11!

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da02
When they use "central planning", they mean when the decision making process
is interfered by a govt/state authority. Their wiki is down, but here is an
archive for more info. on their definition of "central planning":
[https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:YXC5Xl...](https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:YXC5XlteU_UJ:https://wiki.mises.org/wiki/Central_planning+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us)

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akjainaj
I suppose as long as they keep being showered with money from Steam, they
don't really have an incentive to end with that chaotic way of organising the
corporation.

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soylentcola
At the same time, it would be nice to have that level of resources to devote
to a project like HL3, even if it was only "sold" to the bean counters as an
excellent way to boost the company's reputation and "standing" from a
marketing angle.

Then again, as picky and vocal as gamers can be, would they even want to risk
ending up with a less than stellar result? At this point the status of HL3 has
become so huge as to provide countless running jokes and cliches. Could they
even risk putting out something that wasn't the second (third?) coming?

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gohrt
Is it long-term good to make a something no one wants to make well?

Remember what happened to Star Wars? Lucas pumped out a prequel trilogy that
made a ton of short-term money, but then put a 15 year delay to wash away the
filthy taste, before Disney took over and started self-perpetuation engine
pumping out enjoyable and massively profitable movies

