
The End of California? Dream On - fjabre
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1931582,00.html?cnn=yes
======
Kaizyn
As a life-long resident of California, I should like to say that if this is
where the rest of the country is headed, then the Republic is doomed. Adopting
the policies of California will bankrupt any other state in the country as it
has this one. If this be the future, then we as a nation are headed straight
off a cliff.

~~~
joecode
Well, Silicon Valley is in good shape anyway. It still produces things, unlike
most of the rest of the country. Hollywood is likely to keep ticking, too, and
I don't see the wine country having much trouble either. Meanwhile, the state
is a pretty damn good place to grow tasty, nutritious fruits and vegetables.

As a California resident, all this doom and gloom has struck me as utter
nonsense. California has especially noticeable problems because it is such a
huge and dynamic economy. So perhaps it reacts to U.S./World economic
conditions in an especially intense manner. But this is something like a
healthy immune reaction in my opinion. California will get over it, and it
will be stronger in the end.

Perhaps I sound too infatuated with California. Well, come here and see for
yourself. It almost makes me feel patriotic---for California, that is.

~~~
splat
I agree with you that the state of California is, all things considered, not
doing too badly, and it looks as though it will be doing better in the near
future. I think that the original commenter was referring to the _government_
of the state of California, which is in serious fiscal trouble. And it looks
as though the state government's problems are going to be exacerbated in the
future by the tendency of the state legislature for the last several years to
"solve" any fiscal problems with temporary fixes and postpone real solutions.
The state itself certainly still has a very bright future, but unless the
legislature makes some drastic changes in the near future, the state
government's future looks very troubled. "California" and "the government of
California" are two very different things, and it's important not to conflate
the two as often happens in these "California is going down the shitter"
debates.

~~~
Retric
Something else to consider when looking at all the doom and gloom around
California is the relative income of the average person in California vs. the
rest of the US.

    
    
      Median Household Income
      California $61,021
      United States $52,029
      Personal per capita income
      California – $33,749 
      United States of America – $31,632 
    
      Taking the population 35,893,799 of California * the income gap ($33,749 – $31,632 ) = 75,987,172,483 call it 76 billion per year.
    

So yes they had a state budget gap of about 1/3 of the extra per person income
vs. the rest of the country. But the idea it's bonds or IOU's became worthless
is silly.

Median income tends to reduce the apparent income gaps. If you look at the
simple average, California makes a lot more money than the rest of the country
on average. But they solved the problem by reducing spending and not taxing
people more. <http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124814401981267445.html>

PS: I expect USA to do the same thing, a minor tweak to our spending and taxes
can quickly stop deficit spending.

~~~
shpxnvz
_PS: I expect USA to do the same thing, a minor tweak to our spending and
taxes can quickly stop deficit spending._

The Congressional Budget Office predictions were for the combined deficit for
the next 9 years to be $9.27 trillion, and half of that from new spending.
Those "tweaks" you are counting on to stop deficit spending don't seem to be
so minor, and aren't even going in the right direction.

~~~
Retric
Stop fighting wars in the Middle East and then double check those numbers.

[http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_deficit_chart.ht...](http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_deficit_chart.html)

<http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/defense_chart_30.html>

Also breakeven is having the national debt grow as fast as inflation even
though CBO considers that a deficit. 12 trillion * .03 = 360 billion / year.

PS: There is still a gap but doing things like increasing the SS minimum age
by 1 year and cutting back on defense spending might hurt but they don't
exactly break our society. Next up remove the tax break on charitable
donations.

~~~
shpxnvz
So, then, the "minor tweak" you are relying on is for the U.S. Government to
pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan tomorrow? I don't see any indication of that
happening.

When the government actually puts any of those ideas into practice I'll be
elated. Until then it's nothing but fantasy, and sure as heck no reason to
expect that our deficit spending is under control.

~~~
Retric
I don't expect anything to change quickly.

The US federal government is a long way from a true crisis and without that
impetus it's far easier for politicians to keep spending silly amounts of
money. However, when looking at budget projections you need to realize there
is no mandatory spending. “Fixing” SS seems like a deal breaker but we have
already increased retirement age with few real grumbles. In the past we
drastically cut defense spending with few problems. And despite all the fear
pulling out of Vietnam was hardly the end of the free world.

So, yes, I think we will pull out of the middle east within 10 years but a few
trillion her or there is not going to break the US economy assuming the
government can keep paying such low interest rates. The important thing is
adjusting future spending so we can keep those low interest rates.

------
mynameishere
_microchips, freeways, blue jeans, tax revolts, extreme sports, energy
efficiency, health clubs, Google searches, Craigslist, iPhones and the
Hollywood vision of success_

So much bullshit, any intelligent person will have stopped reading
immediately. TIME seals its status as the worst newsweekly.

 _microchips_

From wiki:

 _The idea of an integrated circuit was conceived by a radar scientist working
for the Royal Radar Establishment of the British Ministry of Defence, Geoffrey
W.A. Dummer (1909-2002), who published it at the Symposium on Progress in
Quality Electronic Components in Washington, D.C. on May 7, 1952.[1] He gave
many symposia publicly to propagate his ideas._

 _freeways_

Hitler.

 _blue jeans_

Strauss came from California, blue Jeans did not. Again, see wiki.

 _tax revolts_

Fuck you. The Pennsylvania Whisky rebellion is BY FAR the most prominent tax
revolt in American history, and it is 1000s of years too late to be considered
the inventor of the phenom.

 _extreme sports_

Rome.

 _energy efficiency_

Watt.

 _health clubs_

Rome.

 _Google searches_

Altavista essentially the same, CMU.or Massachusetts, I forget.

 _Craigslist_

Charging zero for an established service is not an innovation.

 _iPhones_

Finland.

 _Hollywood vision of success_

Marx.

~~~
dimitar
"That gave us" doesn't always mean "that invented".

~~~
mynameishere
What does it mean then? One example: Energy Efficiency. I draw attention to
this because:

Energy efficiency has ALWAYS been a concern of industry. And James Watt has
done more for industrial efficiency than the entire state of CA will ever do.
Sorry, but that's a fact. Even if you discount the low-hanging fruit of
efficient steam-engines, then companies like Toyota are still at the
forefront, not California. I am simply pointing out bullshit where I see
bullshit.

And _Freeways_? Really, _freeways_?

EVERYBODY, and even the ignorant part of American society knows that the US
freeways were years behind Germany. I'm just pointing out gross stupidity.
Nothing else.

------
chrischen
Anywhere's probably better than Detroit. Having never visited California in my
life (closest I've come was living in Texas), I really want to see how great
it is. So please, Paul Graham, if you are reading this, please at least give
me an interview so I can fly there for free.

~~~
csbrooks
I'm not sure Texas counts as getting close to California... (I've lived in
both, currently in Austin.)

~~~
chrischen
Well Michigan vs Texas, which one is closer to california? Texas is hot like
California, and it's economy is better than michigan's. I said it's the
closest I've been, and I also didn't mean physically either.

~~~
csbrooks
It's true, and there are parts of Texas that remind me a lot of parts of
California.

~~~
chrischen
Also both make me think of the color orange.

