

Thinking This iPad Mini Thing Even Througher - raganesh
http://daringfireball.net/2012/08/ipad_mini_even_througher

======
alwaysinshade
For anyone wondering why Daring Fireball is able to garner a lot of attention
(and for that matter, almost any article pertaining to Apple) I refer you to
two studies:

\- When, Why, and How Controversy Causes Conversation by Zoey Chen and Jonah
Berger

\- What Makes online Content Viral? by Jonah Berger and Katherine L. Milkman

Results from the first study reveals that controversy significantly affects
likelihood of discussion. The second study comes to a similar conclusion but
fleshes it out a little more eloquently:

"Importantly, however, our findings also reveal that virality is driven by
more than just valence. Sadness, anger, and anxiety are all negative emotions,
but while sadder content is less viral, content that evokes more anxiety or
anger is actually more viral. These findings are consistent with our
hypothesis about how arousal shapes social transmission. Positive and negative
emotions characterized by activation or arousal (i.e., awe, anxiety, and
anger) are positively linked to virality, while emotions characterized by
deactivation (i.e., sadness) are negatively linked to virality. More broadly,
our results suggest that while external drivers of attention (e.g., being
prominently featured) shape what becomes viral, content characteristics are of
similar importance (see Figure 2). For example, a one-standard deviation
increase in the amount of anger an article evokes increases the odds that it
will make the most e-mailed list by 34% (Table 4, Model 4). This increase is
equivalent to spending an additional 2.9 hours as the lead story on the New
York Times website"

Apple is well known for controversy and Gruber is known for his snark (though
I found this article to be insightful speculation) - the two seem to really
complement each other and a lot of their success comes down to their
behaviour. So for anyone who feels inclined to write another "Why is Gruber on
HN?" post, that's why.

~~~
jopt
Backing your opinions up with studies is great. There sure are plenty of
reasons (other than quality, which is the elephant in the room IMHO) that
Gruber might sometimes find himself on HN.

But your analysis is more about why _any_ article of his can qualify. Wouldn't
it be better to judge this individual piece on its merits instead of pleading
the general case?

If you label each of his articles as "Controversial; Pro-Apple" you run a risk
of forgetting to read them. Today's piece should count against that label, not
reaffirm it.

------
ghshephard
I'm not sure what's gotten into Gruber lately, but not only is this entire
essay basically attitude free, he's also got a lot of content, and, dare I
say, math/geometry in this piece?

He gives credit to Digitimes of all orgs for the original (March!) prediction
of a thin-bezel ipad - and goes out on a bunch of limbs predicting what the
new iPad Mini might look like. In particular, his weight prediction, of 265
grams, is somewhat hard to believe - but would be very much appreciated by
those of us who spend 2-3 hours a day reading books on our (somewhat overly
large for that function) iPad.

I guess we'll know in another 30 days.

~~~
TillE
If you're just reading text-based books, why not go with a Kindle? They're
cheap and much better suited to the task.

Graphics-heavy stuff beyond the scope of the Kindle is usually larger format
anyway, and even the 10" iPad feels a bit small for that.

~~~
officemonkey
EInk Kindles can't really do email, or twitter, or skype or angry birds. Right
now I tote around three devices (four when I haul my laptop.) A smaller iPad
means I get rid of the Kindle and the iPod touch.

~~~
philbarr
Really? I find reading on any device for a decent length of time that isn't
e-ink a real pain.

~~~
officemonkey
EInk is definitely better, but I read the entire "Game of Thrones" series last
summer on my iPod touch using the Kindle.app.

~~~
geon
I have used the GoodReader app on iTouch/iPhone and read about 10 MB of txt
files so far. (The 2001 triology, all Stainless Steelrat, the Red/Green/Blue
Mars triology, a lot of Heinlein, the Ringworld triology)

I find the iDevice very easi to read on. Perhaps e-ink is even better.

------
twoodfin
I'm glad Gruber seems to be writing more of these long form pieces. Short and
snarky is not as much of a strength for him as he thinks it is.

On the content: Right on. I will definitely be surprised if the words
"thinner" and "lighter" do not feature prominently in Apple's keynote, both
vs. the Retina iPad and the Google/Amazon competition.

~~~
tambourine_man
_I'm glad Gruber seems to be writing more of these long form pieces. Short and
snarky is not as much of a strength for him as he thinks it is._

My thoughts exactly. His recent talk with Siracusa must have helped.

[edit]

From the show, 1h24m23s: “You haven't done one of those in a while where you
do like screen shots and stuff, you used to do that more…”

He also changed his favicon soon after Siracusa remarked that it wasn't retina
ready, so he probably listens him.
<http://daringfireball.net/graphics/favicon.ico?v=005>

~~~
recoiledsnake
He still manages to come up with gems like this:

[http://daringfireball.net/linked/2012/08/01/nokia-nail-
polis...](http://daringfireball.net/linked/2012/08/01/nokia-nail-polish)

He and Siegler come off as partisan hacks and nothing else. Hence mostly only
Apple fans seem to think he writes great. I do not know why they have to hate
other competing platforms so immensely to love Apple.

~~~
shinratdr
Even outside impartial observers see the Nokia situation just getting worse
and worse, and Windows Phone doing absolutely nothing to pull them out of the
hole they're in.

I appreciate Gruber because he's unapologetic about something like that. We
can dance around it forever, but judging by sales and in-the-wild presence of
WP7, that briefly if crudely summarizes the Lumia & WP7 ecosystem to date.
Doing this stupid old world stuff like distributing nail polish that matches
your phone isn't distracting anyone from the increasingly untenable situation
Nokia is sliding into right now. Moreover, moves like that make it seem like
they're treating their situation flippantly.

It's not about "hate", it's about not candy coating things to appease certain
groups. We heard for the last two years about how beautiful and fast and
revolutionary WP7 is and how nice the Lumia hardware looks. Now it's time to
put up or shut up and they just haven't. That's a fact, and I don't see why
someone should have to ignore that and paint a happy face on the situation to
not be considered a "hack". Moreover, I don't think you can extrapolate from
that that Gruber hates Nokia, the Lumia or WP7. It's just a snarky
observation.

If your issue is with the joke itself, I'll give you that. It wasn't all that
funny or anything. I also agree he's a much better writer when in long form,
and his snark does get over the top. I see where he's coming from here though.

~~~
cooldeal
See, even you managed to write many more words than him. It's not just that
one post linked which is bad, it's a whole series of posts especially about
Google and Android full of smugness, snark and sneering designed for his
target audience, Apple fans and apparently, Google haters. It's like some of
his posts are inside jokes at a fraternity club, and frankly are of that
quality. It's tabloid journalism and nothing else, frankly.

You think any article by someone calling Ping a brown piece of shit would ever
be featured on HN? Hell, even Paul Thurott's Winsupersite is hellbanned on HN.

------
mcantelon
>If you think these stories appearing within a day of each other in the two
most-respected business publications in the U.S. — at the same time the Nexus
7 reviews began appearing and the device started shipping to customers — is
merely coincidental and not a strategic competitive leak from Apple PR, then I
would like to invite you to play in my poker game.

>The angle to these stories is not merely “Apple is set to release a smaller
iPad”, but “Apple is set to release a smaller iPad and it could squelch the
Nexus 7 and any other smaller tablets before they ever really get a chance to
take off”.

Gruber will apparently even try to spin a "me too" response by Apple as
genius.

~~~
__chrismc
You seem to assume the "iPad Mini" hasn't been in development since well
before the Nexus 7.

Given how short a timeframe (4 months) Google gave the development of the
Nexus 7[1], and Apple's supposed "don't release until it's 'perfect'"
attitude, I wouldn't be surprised if it was indeed the case that the iPad Mini
entered development first. If so, does it really count as "me too"? Or just
later to market?

(speculation) What if the Nexus 7 was a response to the rumoured possibility
of a 7-inch iPad? A way to try and capture that segment of the market before
Apple rolled into town?

[1]:[http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielnyegriffiths/2012/08/06/se...](http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielnyegriffiths/2012/08/06/seven-
inches-four-months-a-number-one-sales-target-how-asus-built-the-nexus-7/2/)

~~~
huggyface
_Given how short a timeframe (4 months) Google gave the development of the
Nexus 7_

The Nexus 7 is a rebranded Asus device that was talked about last year. Then
consider the Galaxy Tab, and the basic fundamental that Android has never
dictated the sizes of devices.

Only Apple so tightly coupled their API with very precise, specific form
factors and sizes. It is impossible to view Apple's move (especially after
widely criticizing a 7" tablet -- recall the sandpapered fingers nonsense) as
anything but a me too maneuver.

~~~
officemonkey
Jobs used to disparage a product line while secretly working on a superior
product. Anyone remember 2009 and netbooks? Jobs dissed them the entire time
Apple was working on the iPad.

The "sandpapered fingers" bit was just Jobs saying "small tablets are junk.
We're working on the problems so our product won't be junk."

~~~
nchlswu
I'm being pedantic, but wouldn't the Air be a more appropriate netbook
comparison?

As for the sandpapered finger thing, I imagine that you're right, but at the
time, I wouldn't necessarily think the sandpapered fingers comment was just
blowing smoke.

I'd guess that Jobs was simply conveying his findings at the time. Obviously,
this is purely speculation, but the in years leading up to the iPhone and iPad
touchscreens and software weren't that great and users weren't familiar with
them either. I'd wager that the testing that went into touch-target
optimization led to results that made Apple/Jobs uncomfortable with releasing
a 7-inch.

~~~
officemonkey
>I'm being pedantic, but wouldn't the Air be a more appropriate netbook
comparison?

The Air predates the brief netbook craze. The netbook was supposed to be the
cheap computer you can take everywhere. People were surfing the net from their
couch, using it on long commutes, and bringing them everywhere. The iPad
pretty much killed the nascent netbook market.

The Mac Air took a couple iterations to get popular, but it's now
cannibalizing the college kid/small business person's laptop. The Air might be
as light as a netbook, but it's not a cheap compromise, like the netbooks
were.

------
beloch
I'm not a regular reader of daringfireball, but that blog post is very long on
speculation and decidedly short on facts. It's random chance whether any of
the resolutions, dimensions, weights, or features he settles on wind up
proving to the true. This is firmly in the "Bluray support will be native in
the next version of OSX!" sort of speculation.

~~~
ryanstewart
I've started to read DF posts like this with the mindset that he has some
inside information. It is very short on facts, but the logic seems mostly
sound. Unfortunately it comes across to me as a "I have 75% of the info, I
need to create 100% of the story" kind of piece.

~~~
Tyrannosaurs
It's exactly that sort of piece but that's actually why I read Daring
Fireball.

Gruber obviously comes from a very specific position when it comes to certain
things, but whatever you think about him he's someone who watches Apple very
closely and has done for some time.

With someone like Apple where 100% of the information isn't out there, if I'm
going to read speculation then I'd rather read Gruber's speculation than most
because he's far better equipped to try and fill in the gaps.

------
JVIDEL
I wonder if Apple is going to replace the iPod Touch with this.

Think about it: the Touch didn't get a spec bump while the iPhone, iPad and
even the AppleTV did, and it sells for the same price of a Kindle Fire, Nexus
7 or Nook Tablet, all popular small tablets in the category where this iPad
mini would compete.

PMPs are dead mostly because the same kind of people who bought PMPs are now
buying tablets and Apple can't make this new iPad too expensive or it will be
too close to the iPad2 and consumers will buy that one instead, nor can it
make the Touch cheaper or it will cannibalize the Nano.

~~~
alanfalcon
I've seen it suggested that the Nexus 7 isn't the Android iPad, it's the
Android iPod Touch. This makes sense to me, and it makes sense to me that
Apple could be moving in a similar direction with the iPod Touch itself,
especially if it can hit those weight goals. This would also seem to open up
some space for the iPod nano to gain functionality.

~~~
fratis
Alternatively, maybe soon – with the small iPad filling the $249 price gap –
Apple will finally kill the iPod Classic and cut prices on the rest of the
line. They've been manufacturing the lower quality retina display for the iPod
Touch for two years, and costs must be down significantly.

Combine that with falling costs for flash storage, and I could see them going
down to $150-$250 for the Touch ($150 for 16GB up to $250 for 64GB), $100/$125
on the Nano, and keeping the Shuffle at $49.

~~~
zachrose
I'm hoping they keep the iPod Classic around, regardless of how well they
sell. In my mind, it's the seed of the Apple renaissance.

~~~
freehunter
There really is a dearth of high-capacity PMPs anymore. I still have my Zune
120 in my truck, constantly plugged into the stereo. I sync it over wifi when
I want to add new music, and I have my entire music collection available if a
certain song unexpectedly pops into my head and I have to listen to it. 64GB
is still too small and too expensive to be feasible for carrying around an
entire catalog. With the Zune gone, Apple is the only game in town for high
quality, high capacity media players (surprisingly, CNet doesn't include it in
their "best hard drive mp3 player" list, only the mediocre Archos 5 at $500).

------
zachwill
After reading both this and the iMore article, I really feel like Q4 this year
is going to be like nothing we've ever seen. There won't be a reason for the
average consumer _not_ to get an iOS device. I think we're heading into a time
where Apple's dominance will pass the threshold of what Microsoft had in the
90's.

And, if you consider a revamped TV is on the way in a couple years — man,
we're talking about iOS in the living room, in your lap, and in your pocket.
It's astonishing to think that the iPhone is only 5 years old at this point.

~~~
ajross
Um... So a quarter notable mostly for Apples entry _into a tablet form factor
market already pioneered by other competitors_ is somehow a testament to the
platform's... dominance?

(I really want to respond to the idea of yearning for another IBM/Microsoft-
scale monopoly too, but I'll limit myself to simple snark for now.)

~~~
officemonkey
Apple's entry into the phone market already pioneered by other competitors is
a testament to the platform's dominance.

Also, no one would be making tablets of any size if it weren't for the success
of the iPad (introduced January 2010.) If you recall, 2009 was all about the
netbooks. Remember them? Nobody else does either.

The Nexus 7 (released at the end of June) is the first non-iPad tablet of any
size that has ever gotten a legit positive review. It's hard to see how the
unimpressive Android tablets of the past two years and the Kindle Fire
constitute successful pioneering. And now Apple looks to introduce a very
strong competitor three months later.

Here's my prediction. Unless the iPad mini is an unmitigated turd, Apple's
iPad mini will outsell the Nexus 7 five-to-one during the Christmas quarter.
That's platform dominance.

~~~
duiker101
it will outsell the Nexus 7 just because it has an apple on it's back. I know
that like everyone in here.

------
DirtyCalvinist
From the standpoint of a mobile developer and a user of one of Samsung's 7"
tablets, the 7" form factor is too big for phone apps to really feel right on
it, and too small for the big tab apps to be naively scaled down and feel
right. So any Apple tablet at that size will suffer from a lack of good
software until everyone catches up.

On the plus side, with the entry of an Apple device, there will be a much
greater incentive to create workable design paradigms for the form factor, and
both Android and iOS devices this size will benefit.

~~~
simonh
You're assuming that an iPad mini screen would be roughly as usable as a nexus
7 screen, but if the rumours are correct they would be very different. The
Nexus 7 has a 'letterbox' widescreen aspect ratio compared to the iPad's
chunkier 4x3 screen. Also the iPad screen would be 40% bigger. These are not
small differences.

------
Someone
I do not see how anybody might think it would have iPad-like edges

An edge to place your thumb on must be about an inch wide. A 7 inch diagonal
screen is 4 by 6 inch or so. With a one inch edge, the edge would be 16 square
inches, or about a third of the area of the device. I do not see how they
could sell you that (well, maybe, if they used them for solar cells and
managed to power the device from it)

------
css771
This was a very good piece from gruber and I say that as someone who has
consistently hated his snarkiness and apple fanboyism in the past. He makes
deep analyses of the ipad mini here and dare I say, sets himself apart as a
key asset in the Apple tech press. There should be someone as capable of doing
in-depth analyses in other tech fields too. I was thinking specifically about
android device news. The folks at androidpolice are the best I know. But not
of Gruber's calibre.

~~~
tjmc
Anand Lal Shimpi of <http://www.anandtech.com> is of that calibre and far less
partisan - particularly if you're looking to buy components like motherboards
or an SSD.

~~~
msh
I like Gruber, but Anand's reviews/analysis are of a far higher calibre than
grubers.

------
hack_edu
The thinness angle doesn't sound right to me and would be a bad decision to
trade it for real features. Thinness is important, don't get me wrong, but
nearly all iOS device users use cases.

The thickness of a case can often double overall size and weight in your hand.
This that isn't going to change, probably ever.

~~~
csmeder
The extreme popularity of the mac book air and now pc clones of that form
factor would indicate otherwise. I think Gruber hit the nail on the head with:
Don't think of it as an iPad mini but an iPad air.

Once the early adopters flash their iPad airs around with no case (or an
extremely thin mag cover), an ipad 3 is going to look fat and heavy. A nexus 7
is going to look bulky and old. Soon it will be a basic expectation that
tablets are light as feather computers with no perceivable thickness. Tablets
that don't come in this form factor will be seen as clunky relics of the past.

The best way to tell if an apple product will do well, is to ask your self:
"Once this product gets wide spread adoption, will this product make its
predecesor seem, old, clunky and/or unrefined". From a tactile and visual
stand point a iPad air will do this.

~~~
hack_edu
OK, but everything will still be in a case so still fat and heavy and clunky
looking. A shock proof case can only be so thin and only when you can prevent
thin glass/metal/plastic from breaking or warping so easily (let's see how
long that takes) will that cease to be the limiting factor. And the cases you
see around town aren't the mag covers, I'm talking about fully blown folio in
synthetics or leather. Mag covers only protect the screen from scratches and
provide the auto sleep function. You can't bring the MBA into the comparison.
People don't carry them around everywhere they go, whipping them out 100+
times a day and dropping them on a regular basis.

Full disclosure: despite my argument, I hate cases on my devices and refuse to
use them aside from a thin tablet screen cover.

~~~
tomflack
So they should make it out of rubber because "it'll end up in a case anyway
and be fat and heavy and clunky looking"?

There is a severe flaw in what you're saying - Apple didn't design the iPad 1,
iPad 2 or iPad 3 with a full case in mind _, in spite of the audience using
them lots.

_ Yes I realise they make the smart case. I think of this like the bumper -
offering something demanded, but the core product was designed without it.
They also introduced it significantly after the iPad 2.

------
sasoon
For me, ipad with 7.85" screen makes sense. You do not lose screen real estate
because it is the same resolution as iPad 1 & 2, it is easier to carry around,
apps will not need new versions to support iPad mini. This is real size
comparison of iPad 7.85" with iphone 4 and standard ipad:
[http://www.sizeall.com/compare/Apple-iPad-7-85-inch-
mockup-A...](http://www.sizeall.com/compare/Apple-iPad-7-85-inch-mockup-Apple-
iPhone-4-Apple-iPad-2-Wi-Fi/75)

------
greendestiny
This all makes sense to me and I can see this being a successful product. I
don't know if its too early yet, but normally when Apple telegraphs a new
product people will fall over themselves to hype up the specs and decry it as
useless if it doesn't meet expectations. That hasn't started happening yet - I
can imagine Apple hates the over expectations but I wonder if the opposite is
worse. Maybe this is just a better understood fit in the market, or maybe it
hasn't sparked peoples interest in the same way.

Personally I'll definitely be buying one, but mostly because I'm very money
conscious and would love a slightly bigger iOS device.

------
jonknee
As a Kindle Fire owner I have to say the form factor of tablets this size is
great. I just wish there was a better fix to the resolution issues. Limiting
to low PPI for app compatibility seems like a hack.

~~~
bluthru
>Limiting to low PPI for app compatibility seems like a hack.

What, and give developers another resolution to develop for? No.

The iPad Mini will use the iPhone 3GS LCD pixel density. Then in a year, the
iPad Mini will adopt the iPhone 4 pixel density. This means that every
"retina" iPad app that currently exists will display natively on the device.

So basically: wait a year and then you'll have that crazy-good iPhone 4+
density.

~~~
jonknee
How will that work without having that other resolution you want to avoid? The
issue was avoided on the desktop by not requiring everything be full screen.

I understand the issue, but my personal iPad usage would not be affected by
more resolutions (I surf, read and watch video) but the greater PPI would be
very appreciated. That's why it's frustrating.

~~~
quarterto
It's pixel-doubled, so you just need to update the graphics, not redesign the
entire app layout.

------
gte910h
I think retina is very possible still:

iPad 2012 is 264 ppi at 9.7 inches

Gruber got a 7.85 in measurement somewhere (I think from a past article of
his).

264ppi / 7.85 * 9.7 = 326 ppi

i.e., if they made a 7.85in iPad Mini, it would have the exact same DPI as a
iPhone4/4S. I can COMPLETELY see this as a viable option, as they might be
able to use some of the same lines as they do for the phones and they already
know 326ppi is possible.

------
nazgulnarsil
ipod touch thin = ridiculously fragile screen, like the macbook air.

~~~
ghostganz
I haven't heard of anyone's Air screen breaking, they can't be that fragile.

(But I have heard of several people destroying them with coffee or beer).

~~~
duiker101
Well I think that if you pour coffee or beer you would destroy any device,
Apple or not.

------
abuzzooz
> You might need more thumb-rest room on the sides than you do on the iPhone,
> but not nearly as much as you do on the full-size iPad.

Why? The iPhone is meant to be held in one hand and manipulated by the other.
The iPad has a different use model and hence a slightly different design. How
would the use model of the iPad mini be different?

------
samirsoriano
Why don't you just wait for it to get released instead of obsessing over it
ahead of time!

------
zerohm
I enjoy reading Gruber quite a bit, but it's not for his snark or his
analysis. It's for his perspective. He has lots of readers because he can
connect the dots. He finds stories or details that may not seem relevant at
first glance, but are signs of where things are headed.

He also loves to call bullshit on trashy link bait.

~~~
smackfu
>He also loves to call bullshit on trashy link bait.

By linking to it. On his massive blog.

------
mcpoulet
I think the iPad Mini is just a huge misunderstanding. Here's what I think the
iPad Mini really is : [http://www.hteumeuleu.fr/wp-
content/uploads/2012/08/ipad-min...](http://www.hteumeuleu.fr/wp-
content/uploads/2012/08/ipad-minnie.jpg)

------
Kilimanjaro
My prediction: iPad Mini in seven delectable colors for just $299.

------
atc
Who the hell gives a shit?!

~~~
Hari_Seldon
With 97 comments (as I write this) I'd say many people :-)

------
newman314
Um, I think it's supposed to be "more thoroughly". Just saying.

~~~
shinratdr
That's if you're trying to say thorough, which he wasn't. He was saying
through. Different, although similar words.

This post is a direct continuation, picking up where the Thinking This iPad
Mini Thing Through post left off. It's "Through-er" both as a joke and to make
it perfectly clear it's a sequel to the previous post.

Thoroughly would imply something different, like he wasn't really thinking
about carefully it in the first post. That isn't his intent. It's not supposed
to supersede the other article, it's just "more".

~~~
rahoulb
When I read it I also immediately thought of Apple's "funnest iPod yet" line:
<http://daringfireball.net/linked/2008/09/09/funnest>

