
Apple gold - zdw
http://leancrew.com/all-this/2015/03/apple-gold/
======
acqq
Reading

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_matrix_composite](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_matrix_composite)

"MMCs are nearly always more expensive than the more conventional materials
they are replacing. As a result, they are found where improved properties and
performance can justify the added cost. Today these applications are found
most often in aircraft components, space systems and high-end or "boutique"
sports equipment."

So it seems the goal was really first to have the more durable material.

~~~
bpicolo
Not necessarily. "Nearly" is a key word. They're saving gold, which is a
pretty expensive metal...

~~~
acqq
...while paying more to produce the composite vs. what they'd pay to make an
alloy. Still, I wanted to see what numbers are:

[http://www.ebay.com/gds/How-Much-Gold-Is-Really-In-A-
Rolex-W...](http://www.ebay.com/gds/How-Much-Gold-Is-Really-In-A-Rolex-
Watch-/10000000001632748/g.html)

We see that the golden Rolex has most of the weight in the bracelet and I
haven't seen the "full gold" bracelet on the Apple site. The body of the
golden Rolex apparently has cca 2 thirds of the golden ounce of pure gold,
which is at the moment not more than 700 USD. If Apple can save a half of it,
it's around 350 USD saved, not counting the higher expense to make a composite
which would reduce the saving.

Now if we accept Gruber's guess that the most expensive watch will be priced
in the order of 10 K USD, compared to all the profits per unit, it doesn't
seem to be a big percent. But if we factor the expected number of the items
sold it's not something that should be ignored. Still I can imagine that they
could have simply made a body with the steel "reinforcement" inside and nobody
would blink.

I sure expect somebody will properly tear down the Apple Watch Edition to
measure the exact amount of gold. If Archimedes managed to do this 2
millenniums ago, why wouldn't we?

~~~
kudu
Gruber's guess is still just a guess. I'm inclined to side with Marco Arment,
who thinks Apple is going for more of a $5k-ish price.

~~~
kenrikm
I have the feeling that the gold watch portion will actually be significantly
smaller portion of the 5K price (if it is 5k) Something like $999 - $1999. The
rest of the price will come in the bands at 2 - 4K each.

~~~
delsalk
They still have to sell the watch itself with their margins however. There's
nothing stopping you from buying an aftermarket strap, and if they require you
to purchase a strap with the watch -- well then it doesn't matter how they
split the price up.

~~~
shalmanese
If the bands are forward compatible with future generations, then it becomes
more attractive to spend more on the band vs the face.

------
comex
Of course, an 18k gold watch, with the same size as Apple's, that contains
more gold is _heavier_ by definition. I wouldn't be surprised if that factored
into the decision.

~~~
threeseed
Surprised people aren't mentioning this more.

Weight is critical to the iWatch. Look at the advertising they have done to
date. It has all been in women and men's fashion magazines (with a particular
focus on Asia) whose readers will generally have slighter frames.

The iWatch is quite different from other watch makers in this respect since
they are targeting both men/women with the widest age range probably ever seen
in the industry. This means the same watch needs to be capable of being worn
on a 13 y/o Chinese girl as well as a 35 y/o 6 foot American guy.

~~~
mkr-hn
> _It has all been in women and men 's fashion magazines (with a particular
> focus on Asia) whose readers will generally have slighter frames._

This is something I've never heard. What is this based on?

------
mstolpm
The biggest concern for Apple would be the processing part. The new "Apple
Gold" could be favorable not only for cost efficiency but especially for
machinability. Classic gold watches need a lot of manual work, as far as I
know. The new material could help in mass manufacturing the Apple Watch.

~~~
auxym
I don't know anything about watch-making, but gold is pretty soft and likely
easy to machine. Ceramic-based composites, on the other hand... I'd be
surprised if this were the case.

~~~
tim333
Yeah I guess you'd get a rough surface and then probably electroplate more
gold on top.

------
mrkelley
It appears that Apple is making gold better - amazing.

What is the desirability of gold? It is the essence of the metal or the
appearance? If apple is able to improve the essence of the metal and improve
the longevity of the appearance - I say it's a win.

~~~
minikites
Gold is desirable because all of the other elements are worse at being
currency:

[http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/02/15/131430755/a-chemis...](http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/02/15/131430755/a-chemist-
explains-why-gold-beat-out-lithium-osmium-einsteinium)

\----------------------------

So we're down from 118 elements to 30, and we've come up with a list of three
key requirements:

\- Not a gas.

\- Doesn't corrode or burst into flames

\- Doesn't kill you.

Now Sanat adds a new requirement: You want the thing you pick to be rare. This
lets him cross off a lot of the boxes near the top of the table, because the
elements clustered there tend to be more abundant.

At the same time, you don't want to pick an element that's too rare. So osmium
— which apparently comes to earth via meteorites — gets the axe.

That leaves us with just five elements: rhodium, palladium, silver, platinum
and gold. And all of them, as it happens, are considered precious metals.

\----------------------------

~~~
unfamiliar
> So we're down from 118 elements to 30

Without stating why it needs to be an element in the first place. Why not any
compound?

~~~
praptak
Compound is at danger if a very effective manufacturing process appears. So
it's better if there is a rare element in the compound. So it looks like the
rare element is there to stay.

------
Evolved
Fun fact: the fact that boron carbide is used and happens to also increase
hardness of the watch band is interesting as boron carbide is the most common
type of base ingredient in armor plates for soldiers due to its hardness which
results in the ability to fragment rounds before they can achieve any
significant penetration. [1]

[http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Protective_Insert](http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Protective_Insert)

------
mark-r
Lower cost, higher hardness. Seems like a win-win.

Makes you wonder why nobody ever thought of it before?

~~~
culturestate
People have thought of it before. Notably, Hublot[1] has a material that they
call "Magic Gold" which is just this sort of gold/ceramic composite.

1\. [http://www.watchtime.com/wristwatch-industry-
news/technology...](http://www.watchtime.com/wristwatch-industry-
news/technology/hard-timers-hublot-conjured-magic-gold/)

~~~
besserwisser
This should be higher! The patent, filed in 2014, claims exactly what's
described in this article written in 2012. That's incredibly blatant.

------
MRSallee
Who buys gold by volume?

This seems like a complete non-issue. "18 karat" isn't a measure of gold by
volume, nobody buys gold by volume, and this "Apple gold" has the same amount
of gold by weight as any other 18k gold.

~~~
abbot2
Everyone. You are not buying "5 grams of golden earrings", you are buying
earrings which fit you, hence the volume.

~~~
gutnor
Not really - unless you are wealthy enough to ignore the price when buying
jewellery, you are buying by weight. Except for the high end jewellery, the
price has a direct relationship with weight in gold, not the volume of the
piece.

------
mdbook
I heard that 18k gold must be 75% solid gold by weight.

Anyway I'm not a metallurgist, but it seems to me that if Apple watch is
successful the gold watch will sell in large numbers. If that happens it seems
to me it might spawn a cottage industry of gold refining to float off the
ceramic and such and reclaim the gold. They aren't the first to make a hybrid
like this, but they'll be the first to do it in large quantities.

Also, as others have pointed out the idea that you have to upgrade Apple
products when new models come out is bunk. I use my iphones for at least 4
years. My current iphone is 4 years old and I will probably keep it for 5
years. I don't see why (if successful) the Apple watch after getting past the
teething phase by the 2nd or 3rd revision you won't be able to keep it as long
as an iphone.

People don't need to upgrade their iphones every year. Those that do are doing
it purely out of their own desire. Apple devices last in a useful fashion
quite a long time. The fact that they design them to do that inspires
confidence in their institutional integrity. The fact that people who must
have the latest thing don't acknowledge that they're usually upgrading purely
for their own felt reasons–not that I'm opposed to it in any way–and not
because anyone is forcing them to is just a way to hide the true reasons they
upgrade from themselves. They made me do it!

------
bch
I wonder if Specialized lawyers are working overtime... (Specialized
introduced a metal matrix bicycle in 1990, and they love to sue [1]).

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Specialized_Bicycle_Components...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Specialized_Bicycle_Components#Litigation)

EDIT: though, apparently most (all?) of their suits are trademark related,
however specious.

~~~
joosters
Oh no! The evil corrupt patent system is stopping me from owning a bicycle
made of gold...

~~~
BinaryIdiot
> Oh no! The evil corrupt patent system is stopping me from owning a bicycle
> made of gold...

Damn. Time to delete the thing from my cart. _Sigh_ , it was prime too.

------
vbezhenar
It's the color and reflections that matters. Not the weight. But competitors
will surely make a joke of it.

~~~
wmeredith
I'm sure Apple will cry all the way to bank.

------
ctdonath
One meme making the rounds now is that Apple will be consuming a significant
fraction of world gold production for making the upper end Watches. Those
calculations will now have to be recomputed, considering less will be used per
watch as previously anticipated.

~~~
gcr
How many people will purchase one?

I will be surprised if more than 1,000 are ever sold.

I will be shocked if more than 10k are sold.

A more delicious question is: how many watches would have to be produced to
create a significant impact?

------
freegroup
For table 1 of the patent, you should just ignore the Δ values in the last
column and use values from the previous column instead.

All samples are 18k gold, so the reduction in gold mass should be (and
actually is) exactly the same as the reduction in total mass.

Looking at their data, for some reason there is a reduction factor of 1.25
applied to all values, except for sample F which has no reduction. My
suspicion is that someone wanted to correct for the fact that 25% of 18k gold
is not gold, but even then they would have needed a factor of 1/0.75 =
1.333...

------
gfosco
This fits right in line with my prediction [1] that we're all overestimating
the amount of gold in the enclosure and that it's going to be cheaper than the
high estimates. I'm still thinking $2,499 max. Can't wait to see what comes
out on Monday.

[1]:
[https://twitter.com/newFosco/status/569407140151959555](https://twitter.com/newFosco/status/569407140151959555)

~~~
raldi
How many grams of pure gold do you think will go into each watch?

~~~
gfosco
Not sure... I saw estimates that it would contain ~$1,500 worth of gold, and
I'm speculating it's closer to ~$1,000.

~~~
raldi
You're not really giving me much reason to put any stock in your prediction.
Your complete lack of detail or explanation makes it sound like you're pulling
a number out of the air.

The people making much higher estimates of the gold watch's price (most
notably, John Gruber) are backing their estimates with analysis and citations.

~~~
DiabloD3
Gold bullion (99.9% or finer, or 24 karat) is around $1200 an ounce currently.
18 karat gold is around 75% pure, so an ounce of the gold Apple would have
been using is only worth around $900.

~~~
beggi
So with this process it's $450?

~~~
acveilleux
No, 900$ per ounce still... But it would take up a larger volume so you'd need
less mass per watch.

~~~
beggi
Right sorry, I was reading it as $900 for gold per watch not per ounce!

------
myth_buster
From an investment POV there is no change but there is tremendous implication
to the bling market.

------
giaour
Does this mean that when iWatch 2 comes out I won't even be able to sell my
original iWatch for gold scrap?

(I.e., can this special Apple Gold(TM) be melted and reused like regular gold,
or does it just go in a landfill after two years like every other apple
product?)

~~~
delsalk
You would probably get a better deal selling the watch as a watch itself than
melting it down for its raw gold.

Apple has let you bring you old devices in to be recycled in the past however;
Maybe they could extend this to buy back old watches? People have envisioned
some upgrade program, though I'm doubtful Apple would be too concerned with
melting down old watches for their gold.

~~~
giaour
If the tech is outdated enough that the OS no longer receives updates, then
it's value will be similar to that of a first generation iPad.

I'm sure Apple could buy back, clean, and reuse bands from obsolete watches,
but they might be the only buyers if iGold is too difficult for a regular
jeweler to work with. It will be interesting to see if one of Apple's first
moves on entering the jewelry market is to hamstring the independent secondary
market.

------
nroose
Not sure why anyone would think it was a bad thing to make a watch lighter and
stronger.

------
BjoernKW
While the process itself seems quite sophisticated the result isn't all that
surprising:

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archimedes%27_principle](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archimedes%27_principle)

------
Kiro
Why would he get blowback for that tweet? How is it inartfully put?

~~~
cowsandmilk
because the majority of the internet apparently does not actually understand
the relationship between density, mass, and volume.

Seriously, just click on the tweet and look at the ignorant responses.

------
gcb0
it karat is by volume, and it has less gold per volume, isn't advertising as
18 plain false?

~~~
hyperion2010
Karat is by mass not volume.

------
DiabloD3
I think you mean Apple black.

I'll let myself out.

------
higherpurpose
Apple Watch _Less_ -Gold.

