

Improving startup virality using prediction markets to estimate failure probability. - amichail

The idea here is that users of your service will tell their friends about it if it is looking increasingly likely that your startup will fail without more word of mouth marketing.
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holaamigos
Most start ups fail. With a prediction market, betting on failure is a good
default option, even if you know little about the idea.

However, most startups require optimism and a belief that the team has
stumbled upon the best sliced bread since the big bang. Having nay sayers
betting on failure undermines this belief.

