
What Everyone’s Getting Wrong About the Toilet Paper Shortage - smacktoward
https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0
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ineedasername
Nope. You can't claim it's increased demand for consumer varieties under these
conditions. Such increased demand of TP would see a fairly smooth increase in
purchase & usage patterns as people ran out of their current supply and
purchased their normal replenishment slightly more often. That's not the
behavior we've seen. Indeed, if it _had_ been that behavioral pattern, then
the modest elasticity in production capacity (roughly 20% IIRC from
manufacturers) would have been enough to smooth over the issue during the time
necessary to ramp up further and perhaps repurpose commercial lines for
consumer packaging.

That isn't what happened. Near me, it literally disappeared overnight about
3-4 weeks ago, and hasn't come back since.

~~~
FrojoS
I don't know one way or the other but I wouldn't be as sure as you are. Like
others have said here, its probably a combination of many things, including a
bit of a panic, but its an interesting analysis for sure.

Yes, there was a bit of a 'bank run' effect. But it wasn't as huge as one
might think. I saw some numbers for Germany from Spiegel.de and sales of
toilet paper went up by 'only' ~100% (compared to 700% for hand sanitizer)
[1].

Compared to the out-of-need increase of ~40% that is cited in the article
here, that's not as huge a difference as I had assumed. If you assume that
rational people are forward looking and are slightly stocking up with out
panicking. Once there was an obvious shortage, people might have panicked a
bit. But not for no reason. Here in Switzerland, the sewer system did get
clogged up by toilette paper alternatives like wet wipes and cotton [2]. So it
seems, that indeed some people ran out of toilet paper. Of course they should
have used water instead. But it shows, that our just-in-time, high efficiency
economy is very fragile, even without mass irrationality and panic.

[1] I couldn't find today's source from a quick google search. But another
article cites a 200% increase [https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/corona-krise-
nachfrage-nac...](https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/corona-krise-nachfrage-
nach-desinfektionsmittel-verachtfacht-
sich-a-7befcedb-a1ee-4342-8bd7-bc5f8c8e59ec) , I assume the 100% was for the
whole of March [2] [https://www.20min.ch/schweiz/news/story/Feuchttuecher-
bedroh...](https://www.20min.ch/schweiz/news/story/Feuchttuecher-bedrohen-die-
Abwassersysteme-23998381)

~~~
ineedasername
I didn't say there wasn't some element of increased demand due to more home
use, I was responding to the article's assertion that nearly all of the
shortage was a result of that.

------
ChuckMcM
As with most things I suspect there is a bit of everything in the actual
shortage (panic, lemming behavior, production limits, Etc.) I can attest to
the fact that the commercial toilet supply paper people weren't (at least a
few weeks ago[1]) particularly "low" on toilet paper. I assume that has only
gotten less low since the number of people working from home means less used
at the office.

[1] When I ran engineering and operations for Blekko I hired the janitorial
company for the space. I reached out to the owner of the company we had used
and asked if he still had access to toilet paper and said he had plenty.

~~~
adfm
A washlet beats a rag on a stick any day. You can lead a horse to sufficiently
advanced technology, but you can’t make it think.

------
goldcd
erm no.. that doesn't even make sense

The reason everybody is panic buying toilet paper, is because they read the
stories and they see the empty shelves in the shops.

So they then maybe grab the odd extra pack when they see stock - and the cycle
continues until all domestic storage space is exhausted (or full shelves are
seen again).

Toilet paper is especially susceptible to this as it's cheap, has a supply
chain designed for constant/continuous/even demand - and is bulky so tends to
be produced relatively close to where it's consumed, magnifying these effects.

Or in summary, you don't know what the future holds - but you know you're
going to be ploughing through that decreasing pile of rolls in the cupboard.

So in a capitalist market, why wouldn't they just make more and run the
factory 24x7 (like say an RNA test or respirator maker)? Well because the
actual consumption is a flat line. Sure, you could pay new workers to man the
new night-shift - but then in a month or two you'd have to lay off both
shifts, as we all work down our reserve and don't buy any TP.

~~~
greedo
The article mentions that most TP factories are working at 100% capacity
around the clock.

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apetrovic
Oh, bullshit. The shortage isn't because people are buying TP more often, the
shortage is because a lot of people bought a lot of TP in short period of
time.

I don't live in US, and even if some morons here started hoarding TP, the
majority of population acted more or less reasonably. I went to the store
today, there's an usual amount of TP and paper towels in the shelves.

~~~
dgritsko
Did you read the article? The argument being made (whether it's accurate or
not, I have no idea) is that more people being home means shifting demand
towards consumer TP and away from commercial TP, and pointing out that the
supply chains for both are already highly optimized and not able to easily
cope with such a dramatic shift in demand.

~~~
amanaplanacanal
TP near me ran out before any closures happened.

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pedrocr
This would be a reason for gradual supply issues as quarantine goes into
effect. That's not what happened, we had a huge spike. It also happened right
after clickbait hungry journalists all over the world started running this
story, even when it hadn't happened in their particular location. So that's a
much more likely explanation. Supply chains can adapt to 40% increases over
weeks. They will visibly struggle with 10x increases over days.

------
taurath
Grocery stores are still restocking really frequently as people have shifted
from eating out to eating and cooking at home. Everyone is also learning to
make bread and/or bake at the moment, because I haven't seen flour or sugar in
stock consistantly for a while.

~~~
lostlogin
Where I am it’s a packing problem, not a flour supply problem. Previously
bakeries, cafes and restaurants bought big sacks every so often. That has
stopped and homes are now wanting 1,2 or 5kg bags and there aren’t any. The
flour is available but in the wrong bags.

~~~
tathougies
People who are unemployed should buy wholesale flour and repackage

~~~
lostlogin
That is everyone right now. New Zealand is on a complete lockdown. No travel,
essential services allowed only.

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FPGAhacker
This does seem like a contributing factor, but the TP run started before the
mass shift to work from home / self quarantine.

~~~
eppp
I read back in mid-late February that Hawaii had shelves empty of toilet
paper. It was only a matter of time for that to spread to the mainland. Did no
one pay attention to what was happening?

~~~
creato
I was buying non-perishable food easily (it all looked fully stocked) for
weeks while TP was sold out.

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bambax
> _There have been shortages in Hong Kong, Australia, the United Kingdom, and
> the United States._

All English-speaking countries, and, until now, moderately hit by the
pandemic.

I don't know about Italy or Germany (except that there seemed to be few photos
of empty shelves running around the Internet), but I can testify that here in
France, there is no visible toilet paper shortage, or people fighting in the
aisles of the supermarkets to get the last roll.

Yet all "rich" countries, with the possible exception of Japan, use toilet
paper in the same manner. So why the difference between countries?

~~~
tathougies
This is a form of mass hysteria. The media reports on some silly commodity
like toilet paper having run out in one store (maybe they didn't get their
delivery, unrelated to coronavirus at the early days). People take this signal
to mean that toilet paper is going to run out. Now, afraid of being left
without toilet paper, and worried that others are hoarding it for a reason
they do not yet understand, others go to buy it.

It's the same reason why people start buying ridiculous things when a
celebrity is seen wearing them. People look at it, don't understand what's
going on, but don't want to be left behind, so demand increases irrationally.

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theandrewbailey
> Talk to anyone in the industry, and they’ll tell you the toilet paper made
> for the commercial market is a fundamentally different product from the
> toilet paper you buy in the store... _The paper itself is thinner and more
> utilitarian._

I can't be the only one that wondered what's up with that. I've purposefully
held a #2 until I got home just so I can use better TP. Maybe that's the
point?

~~~
dpc_pw
Thinner TP clogs the pipes less often. At least that's the explanation I
heard.

~~~
ineedasername
I don't know, I use significantly more under those conditions, so it might be
roughly a net-0 in terms of paper going through the pipes. Also, commercial
toilers typically have a wicked strong flush to them which would probably
overcome typical TP use, double use, a roll of paper towels, and maybe even a
small tree.

------
war1025
The toilet paper shortage reminds me of an anecdote I heard about the 1970s
gas shortages:

"The country had more gasoline than ever, it was just in people's tanks rather
than at the gas station"

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imchillyb
Lets say people use bathroom facilities to do their drop, 2x per day. One at
home, and another at a workplace.

Being under a quarantine or 'shelter in place' order, people are now utilizing
their own facilities 2x more than they were before.

This isn't a linear increase, but an exponential increase in usage patterns.
As more persons in the home stay home, more TP will be required to fulfill
needs that were, up until this point in time, served by employers / schools /
other facilities than their home.

Add to the increase issue: Humans are generally -horrible- at making
estimates. Budgets even if increased to account for additional usage may not
account for things like wrapping sanitary napkins in a wad of tissue.

Add to this that the children, who were at school all day and using the school
facilities, are now home and using more TP than is normally required (if you
have kids you know what I mean).

Add to that the panic purchasers...

and now we have a real problem that is not easily solved; unless by magic.

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mark-r
The even easier explanation is that it's the one thing you don't ever want to
run out of.

~~~
SlowRobotAhead
Eh... there are a million things you can use in place of toilet paper. Food is
much more important but for the most part the supply chains have kept up
there.

Installed bidet sprayers on all our toilets last year, I care not for your TP
panic! We have 8 rolls in the house, that’ll last us another 2 months or so.

~~~
NateEag
Yes, but most people 1) do not realize that, and 2) would not want to change
their butt-wiping habits even if they did.

~~~
SlowRobotAhead
Learning new wiping habits was one of the best parts of traveling around the
world. USA #1, but we have a thing or two to learn about butts.

------
merlyn
I don't buy it. If its all shifted away from the industry supply, why are all
the industrial supply stores devoid of industrial TP as well?

Just like all the baking supplies are gone from the stores, AND from the
restaurant supply houses as well. There's not a 50# bag of flour to be found
anywhere of those that that will actually sell to the normal consumer.

Although that industry is very closed in on itself, around my area if you go
in person, you have to show your corporate paperwork to get setup as a buyer,
and you can't just drop into willcall to buy restaurant quantities of what
they have without an account. I know other areas are different.

------
SlowRobotAhead
This doesn’t explain why the effect is so obvious with toilet paper.

I think it’s clear it was an irrational panic (the virus doesn’t make you shit
yourself to death) and is now a “it’s rare so I must buy some!” Which is
keeping it out of stock.

The same thing happened with 22lr ammo on 2015/2016\. It made NO DAMN SENSE
that people were stocking up on the weakest round you can buy, but it was out
everywhere for years. Some idiots started a panic, then otherwise rational
people were buying any amount or brand they saw at high prices because they
didn’t want to be out.... it was extreme irrational self-caused situation, I
see nothing but similarity here.

~~~
beart
Wasn't this also partially driven by the military buying up a ton of ammo? I
know they don't use 22, but I thought it put a lot of pressure on the
suppliers.

~~~
SlowRobotAhead
The US mil gets its ammo mostly from Lake City and Federal. The latter does
make 22, but basically a separate company. It was election panic at first; the
irrational buy-up. Everyone was out from European to Russian suppliers.

------
towb
We had about a half to one week of empty shelves here, at least that was what
I saw, wasn't there every day to look, no idea where it came from but glad
it's not a problem at all anymore. Here in Sweden we have the raw material and
the factories so the last thing that we'll run out of is toilet paper. Not
sure how the situation is in other countries so i wonder... where is your
toilet paper made? How long did you have to wait for it to get fully restocked
(not just the sandpaper nobody buys in normal times)?

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jimhefferon
I think, and I suspect others think, that you don't want to be buying during
the worst part. So I am buying ahead, and hoping that after the worst part I
can buy behind.

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gdubs
I have a picture in my mind of the global supply chain as a kind of chaotic
system, that is usually in equilibrium and is currently, turbulently,
adjusting to a new normal. Whatever that will be for the foreseeable future.

It also makes me think of highway traffic. One person taps their breaks a
little to hard and that ripples through the entire system creating waves of
traffic that persist despite the initial event being small and seemingly
inconsequential.

