
A Model Estonian Soldier Who Spied for Russia - prostoalex
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/estonia-russia-deniss-metsavas-spy/592417/
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sandworm101
>> He had accepted money for information—“That was the first step,” he told
me—and met the man who would be his handler for the years to come, Anton.

So Russian. So KGB/GRU. America will spend billions putting a satellite up in
orbit to spy on a man in a tent. Russia will get the same level of information
with a couple fake cops, a girl, and a few dollars paid to vulnerable kid.

>> an artillery specialist

He was the perfect target. Artillery doesn't translate into the civilian
world. Artillery people are more afraid of losing their military jobs than
other trades. A sex video would put more fear into an artillery person than
say a pilot or medic, people who could walk away from the military into a
stable civilian career.

>> While Metsavas was in Afghanistan, GRU agents had traveled to Russky
Island, off the coast of Vladivostok, to meet with his father. Volin had
retired there from London years earlier to be closer to his new wife’s
parents, but his partner had fallen ill.

And he has family retired to somewhere accessible to Russian agents? I
wouldn't be surprised to hear that his father's new wife was also an agent.
Again, sooo Russian. They checked every human intelligence box. America
leverages technology. Russia leverages people.

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secfirstmd
The frightening thing about an intelligence officer pitching you is the moment
that it happens and feelings of fear, being overwhelmed (Is this really
happening? Who are they? Where are they from? I thought they were X but really
they are Y? Why me? Why now? What do they want? Will they hurt me or my loved
ones if I don't agree? Are they recording this? Who else can I not trust? What
do they know about me? How much do they know about me? How did they find out
about XYZ? Do they know about my other thing? How can I stop this? Do I want
to stop this? Can I trust them? Etc etc etc)

If the person being pitched can compose themselves and buy time to think there
is _nearly_ always a way out. Despite what people think intelligence pitching
usually has an element of bluff. A handler making a pitch deep down knows
this.

If the person being leveraged can find a way to call the bluff (and fight the
fear of blackmail) usually the handler will back off - despite what they may
say they might do ("We will expose you"). It's generally too risky for the
handler to get involved in games and threats of exposing the blackmail
evidence. Afterall, they want to continue in their job and aren't gonna risk
damaging their own cover, career etc by trying to burn a source who rejected
them. _Most_ pitches fail.

Plus a person willing to fight their fear and run the risk of the blackmail
compromise being exposed isn't likely to be someone who you are going to
easily be able to control. The KGB trying to blackmail the Indonesian
President over sex tapes comes to mind...the perfect response:

 _Given Sukarno’s boasts, the KGB shouldn’t have been too surprised that its
efforts to blackmail him went astray. “When the Russians later confronted him
with a film of the lurid encounter, Sukarno was apparently delighted,” Lister
wrote. “Legend has it he even asked for extra copies.”_

[https://medium.com/war-is-boring/the-cia-and-kgb-tried-to-
bl...](https://medium.com/war-is-boring/the-cia-and-kgb-tried-to-blackmail-
this-world-leader-with-sex-tapes-927fc7ddbd48)

Of course it is worth pointing out that blackmail isn't usually a very good
method of pitching someone and turning them into a source. It comes with too
many problems. Smart and more effective pitches tilt towards cooperation not
coercion.

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hammock
How do you know so much and can you talk more about the intelligence trade?

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secfirstmd
I've done various bits of training over the years. My company provides
security for NGOs, journalists and activists all over the world. It's an
unfortunate part of the job that this sort of stuff happens to a lot of the
people we work with.

~~~
heavenlyblue
If the lady is cooperating with the intelligence agency - he would then be
imprisoned in Russia for her rape. Esp. knowing how they do that in Russia.

I think the only reasonable thing to do in this situation is to do what
another comment in the thread mentioned: to contact your commander.

But in this situation there was another issue for the guy: his relatives live
in Russia, so there might have been a case of him never seeing them again. Or
having to work as a double-agent.

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dullgiulio
I find it funny that Christopher Nolan is shooting a spy movie less than a
hundred meters away from this guy's prison cell.

Somehow I don't expect the movie to be as interesting as this real story is.

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rolltiide
Interesting, so she must have led him to the camera bugged sex motel and
particular room, where he was then accused of rape

exasperated by prostitution being illegal in Russia and just fighting that
alone would have torpedoed his military career in Estonia

fascinating.

so many tweaks to personal choices as well as that society which could have
prevented all of this.

~~~
secfirstmd
That's his perception and what (if this story is fully true) led him to take
that particular option.

The alternative and smarter choice would have been to walk straight into his
commander, tell them what happened, pass it up the chain to Estonian Counter
Intelligence, deal with the short/medium term repurcussions and live a normal
life. This stuff happens all the time in business and government. Though it
seems like it, it's actually not a massive deal to report this stuff, it's why
counter intelligence exists (or corporate security in the business context).

I would guess and say there have probably been dozens of times in Estonia
alone when people took the smart option and reported things.

~~~
scarejunba
Well, he doesn’t know it’s an intelligence op at that time, right? He’s only
overwhelmed and doesn’t actually know what cooperation means. They’re
subverting the same instinct that people in America have which needs to be
protected by “Don’t talk to the police” which is “you’ve done nothing wrong.
Just be upfront and we’ll help you out”. Then as time passes, the hold
constricts around him.

An allegation of rape will have finished off his career. No doubt about it.
Take the Assange situation, then add an actual video of him having sex. Even
if it were obviously not a single cut, enough people will hate him for it.
“It’s a GRU op” people will be treated as conspiracy theorists.

I’m not saying the Assange situation is like this (that he was entrapped) to
be clear, but the reactions you read online to that will be similar to what
this man would have received had the video been made public.

On the up-side, he wouldn’t have been imprisoned for spying against his
country. On the downside, his blossoming career would have ended. But in the
moment, the upside seems unlikely, rare and far off. The downside is
immediate. The upside is subject to hyperbolic discounting.

The reason I doubt the theory of “this happens quietly many times” is that
KAPO would be aware of the strategy and would have every incentive to
inoculate Estonians about it, and to crow about their native heroes who
escaped Russian clutches. Instead they only allowed revealing of the strategy
via a caught spy.

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javabean_
"Looks like you are offline" \- the Atlantic. HTTP response code : 200 .
Interesting way of framing.

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vasilia
New Netflix show?

