
Tesla's batteries aim to rework the math for electric cars and the grid - hourislate
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-tesla-batteries-exclusive/exclusive-teslas-secret-batteries-aim-to-rework-the-math-for-electric-cars-and-the-grid-idUSKBN22Q1WC
======
eloff
I would like to see the ability to use a Tesla as a Powerwall. A backup
battery for the house of the grid goes down, and a way to smooth demand so I
draw more on the grid when the price is low and less when the price is high.
That of course would depend on your electric company, if they charge consumers
variable rates.

It would reduce the life of the batteries, but it would also save needing a
Powerwall or a generator. It might complement rooftop solar well.

It would be less useful if you use the vehicle to commute and it's parked at
work all day.

My parents live in a remote area and suffer frequent power outages. They'd
love something like that.

~~~
gregwebs
You can buy a 1000W inverter for < $100 and use that with a normal car. [1] A
true sine wave inverter is more than double that.

Presumably this is very inefficient, but a lot of power needs can be satisfied
by running it for shorter periods of time to run compressors on refrigerators
and charge batteries. I would imagine this should work very efficiently for a
Tesla as long as the computer doesn't stop you.

In either case though you want to have a full tank/battery. If your Tesla is
low it won't help much, so although it would work really well most of the time
it would be difficult to rely on it. In a remote area it is usually relatively
safe and relatively cheap to store some gallons of extra gas.

Perhaps what they are hinting at here about having cheaper recycled batteries
(not in cars) will make more sense for these kinds of applications: cheaper
powerwalls. But I agree it would be nice to be able to put power back into a
power wall from a Tesla. Particularly given that the default setting will
assume a temporary outage and start charging the Tesla from the powerwall.

[1] [https://www.consumerreports.org/cro/2012/02/can-a-pint-
sized...](https://www.consumerreports.org/cro/2012/02/can-a-pint-sized-power-
inverter-replace-a-generator/index.htm)

~~~
olyjohn
The problem is your alternator is going to be pissed off if it's running at
idle speeds all day, and still trying to keep the battery charged while you're
pulling an 80 amp load on it. Most alternators are designed to operate above
idle speeds. Sure they can work at idle, and it might get you by in a short
emergency... but it's probably not a great idea.

~~~
kube-system
Wonder if it would work a lot better on a hybrid with a big beefy motor-
generator instead of an alternator.

~~~
omgwtfbyobbq
It does.

[http://priups.com/others/index.html](http://priups.com/others/index.html)

[https://forum.solar-electric.com/discussion/11546/using-a-
pr...](https://forum.solar-electric.com/discussion/11546/using-a-prius-as-a-
generator/p1)

[https://www.bizjournals.com/boston/stories/2008/12/22/daily2...](https://www.bizjournals.com/boston/stories/2008/12/22/daily20.html)

------
close04
> With a global fleet of more than 1 million electric vehicles that are
> capable of connecting to and sharing power with the grid, Tesla’s goal is to
> achieve the status of a power company, competing with such traditional
> energy providers as Pacific Gas & Electric and Tokyo Electric Power.

Is this an apples to apples comparison? Power generation, distribution, and
storage are quite different aspects. And then there's also the fact that Tesla
would manufacture the batteries but not own them.

The battery is analogous to a fuel tank. When not used to power the car both
can be used as an energy buffer as any car could be used as a source of
electricity. This doesn't make any of the major car manufacturers "power
companies". Is the statement coming from Musk/Tesla or is it Reuters'
interpretation?

~~~
rcMgD2BwE72F
>And then there's also the fact that Tesla would manufacture the batteries but
not own them.

This can be changed easily. Most Zoe owners lease their batteries from Renault
and it might possible to set up a deal to share the revenues generated from
the batteries.

>This doesn't make any of the major car manufacturers "power companies". Is
the statement coming from Musk/Tesla or is it Reuters' interpretation?

Tesla has been working on that for years:
[https://gulfnews.com/business/energy/tesla-executive-
hints-v...](https://gulfnews.com/business/energy/tesla-executive-hints-
vehicles-will-soon-drive-the-grid-1.1899411)

More details in this well-researched video:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPIpOB9dya8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPIpOB9dya8)
(this channel is excellent BTW)

~~~
close04
> This can be changed easily

Would this change the fact that they just manufacture the "vessel" not the
contents, or distribute the contents from the source? I see this more as
"democratizing power", giving people more flexibility, and indeed maybe even
changing the way we use the grid. But it certainly wouldn't put Tesla in the
same segment as companies like PG&E or TEPCO.

Hard drive manufacturers are never considered "content companies" regardless
of how they sell or lease the drives, and what content they store. And Toyota
or VW are not considered oil companies even if their cars probably move more
gas than many small ones.

~~~
kjksf
Tesla is aiming to becoming an energy provider, not just seller of batteries.
[https://evannex.com/blogs/news/tesla-bids-to-become-a-
giant-...](https://evannex.com/blogs/news/tesla-bids-to-become-a-giant-
virtual-utility) is a decent intro.

They would not be competing with PG&E (which has monopoly on power grid) but
with companies that generate energy to PG&E e.g. the companies that burn coal
or run gas peakers.

Currently Tesla mostly sells batteries to such companies and they in turn make
money selling energy to PG&E (for example PG&E instead of buying energy from a
company using gas peakers to generate it, they would buy it from company that
"cached" energy in a battery and is selling it to PG&E during peaks).

It's a natural progression for Tesla to become such company themselves as they
make the most costly part of running such business (i.e. battery).

It'll take several years (there's regulation around this stuff and Tesla needs
to learn the new business) but that's where they are heading.

~~~
close04
I understand, they would be in the energy storage and reselling market, rather
than generation or distribution.

~~~
rcMgD2BwE72F
Tesla was installing 1,000 solar roof per week in the US, just before COVID19.
They plan to ramp that quickly and roll this out globally. If they're able to
deploy solar roofs in volume for both residential and commercial building, you
can expect them to slowly become one of the biggest generator of renewable
energy.

------
zpeti
Knowing the pace that Musk dictates I would love to know what else Tesla is
working on or what the pipeline is. Perhaps 2-3 years ago legacy car companies
could have caught up if they focused their efforts, but I think Tesla is so
far ahead now they will be impossible to catch.

The biggest risk is running into cashflow issues but I believe at the last
report they had about 2 years worth of capital expenses in the bank, so this
is also unlikely to be an issue.

~~~
thatfrenchguy
> but I think Tesla is so far ahead now they will be impossible to catch

Are they really though ? You don't see Tesla being much more efficient than
any other EVs so far ?

~~~
eyesee
Actually yes, they are noticeably more efficient than other electric vehicles
in their class (similar weight and range). One example shows Tesla as 20% more
efficient:

Chevy Bolt:
[https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/42191.shtml](https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/42191.shtml)

Tesla Model 3 Standard Range+:
[https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/42278.shtml](https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/42278.shtml)

Here's a complete list:
[https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/byfuel/EV2020.shtml](https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/byfuel/EV2020.shtml)

~~~
semi-extrinsic
Comparing Model 3 vs Bolt on efficiency is just aerodynamics. A lower, longer
car is of course more efficient than a taller, shorter one.

The Hyundai Ioniq is a similarly shaped EV as the Model 3, and it gets very
similar numbers - 133 MPGe (Ioniq) versus 141 MPGe for the best version of the
Model 3 Standard Range, a difference that's smaller than going from 18 to 20
inch rims on the Model 3 Long Range Performance.

It is essentially useless to compare cars that are within 10 MPGe of each
other at 130+ MPGe. If your tires are slightly off optimal pressure, or you've
left something heavy in the trunk, or you've chosen different rims than
standard, you've lost more than this. God forbid if you've put on a roof rack,
probably drops you 30 MPGe down to 100-ish.

This discussion also underpins why MPG is a poor unit to measure efficiency
with. The inverse measures used in Europe like L/100km or kWh/km are much
easier to compare, as differences can be compared directly between a low and a
high efficiency car

~~~
kube-system
I don't think many people realize that MPG is not a linear measure of
fuel/energy consumption.

[https://nudges.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/mpg-
graph.jpg](https://nudges.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/mpg-graph.jpg)

If an average driver (12,000mi/yr) switches from a 12 mpg car to a 15 mpg car,
they save 200 gallons of gas per yr.

If someone who drives the same distance switches from a 60 mpg car to a 63 mpg
car, they save 10 gallons of gas per yr.

If someone who drives the same distance switches from a 133 mpg car to a 141
mpg car, they save 5 gallons of gas per yr.

~~~
tomjakubowski
I agree that subtraction is not especially helpful when comparing two cars
fuel efficiency using MPG. A simple way to frame it is that doubling MPG
halves your fuel needs for the same distance.

------
dougmwne
With gas prices what they are and likely to be there for the next few years,
now is a great time for Tesla to hit purchase price cost-parity with ICE
vehicles. Hopefully this new battery can deliver on that promise. In theory,
we could look at total cost of ownership and say that a Tesla is a good buy,
but unless the sticker price looks good there are plenty that will keep buying
sub-$2 gas guzzlers.

~~~
marvin
It's also lethally good for consolidating their lead in tech and manufacturing
cost. Fossil car manufacturers have been given the apparent gift of lower gas
prices, but this is really a curse in disguise.

While fossil-fueled cars may now be a good cost proposition for a few years
more, this means that there will be even _less_ incentive for the established
manufacturers to develop their EV programs. Meanwhile, Tesla keeps charging
ahead, investing billions per year and iterating with feedback from three
generations of vehicles in the field. Battery prices were dropping 14% per
year even _before_ Tesla's insane R&D programs. It won't stop.

Assuming Tesla can stay somewhat profitable and don't hit any liquidity-
induced catastrophes on the way, the established manufacturers will be in big
trouble when the other shoe drops along with a possible oil price comeback in
a few years. This has been two decades in the making, but everyone will still
act surprised when EVs are suddenly the obviously best option.

------
aphextron
It's rather disappointing that Tesla is still completely focused on the niche
luxury market, though. The entire lineup of new models (Y, Roadster,
Cybertruck) are still just expensive toys for the upper class. They could
build a stripped down "Model 2" with a 60kWh pack right now for $25k MSRP and
totally change the car buying equation for most new buyers in the US.

~~~
cowmix
They are delivering as much value as fast as possible given X metrics.

The cheapest Model 3 price is within the ASP of the average US car, and it is
good value.

As soon as they can do cheaper, they will.

~~~
aphextron
>The cheapest Model 3 price is within the ASP of the average US car, and it is
good value.

The average, sure. But nowhere near the median. Average prices in the US are
heavily weighted by pickups and luxury sales. The median for new buyers is
somewhere around $25k [0]. The cheapest Model 3 you can actually buy is still
~$40k without incentives. That's an $800 car payment - firmly in luxury
territory. It won't be until the average joe can buy a 60kWh electric car for
a $200 payment with a couple thousand down that EVs will go mainstream. At
$80/kWh there's no reason Tesla couldn't do this right now.

[0] [https://www.concannonbc.com/how-much-does-a-typical-
american...](https://www.concannonbc.com/how-much-does-a-typical-american-
actually-pay-for-a-car/)

~~~
pil4rin
What would be the incentive for this? There is still a heavy demand for cars
30k+, why would they stop doing that for a cheaper car when they are selling
every car they are producing at a higher profit? This is currently an issue of
manufacturing capacity, accompanied by a demand curve the 3 set in place.

------
neural_thing
Brought to you by the people who promised 1 million robotaxis for this year.

They just need to raise capital again. I wish for once they were just honest -
need more cash because of the virus. Instead they are going to promise
batteries that break the laws of physics.

~~~
DanCarvajal
Honesty would cash their house of cards, can't have that.

------
olivermarks
Musk successfully achieved his three quarter of a bilion paycheck by keeping
Tesla's stock price up during the biggest global depression in a hundred
years. This is the sign of an insider financial genius.
[https://www.bloombergquint.com/technology/tesla-s-musk-
clear...](https://www.bloombergquint.com/technology/tesla-s-musk-clears-last-
hurdle-to-collect-706-million-award)

~~~
rcMgD2BwE72F
Did he? He recently said the stock was too damn high, but I guess some
investors only followed what Jeff Dahn has been working for the past few years
(cf. what Reuters is just revealing but you can learn about his results
elsewhere too). They expect Tesla's financials to keep improving thanks to
price reduction and performance improvements, while competitors realize they
haven't even started to dip their toes in EV technology.

It might be too late for the rest of the industry, but this has nothing to do
with the recent stock price (this is about battery technology and production
ramp, something that very few journalists/analysts have covered correctly
while Tesla kept increasing its lead).

~~~
olivermarks
I'd counter argue the reason Tesla stock remains so high is due to brilliant
PR about 'aims' rather than actual performance. The carrot is always dangling
for investors. It's genius that Tesla retains such a high stock price in the
face of global realities, not least of which is the current US China trade war
headwinds.

~~~
cowmix
Hence the factory in China... which is fully owned by Tesla.

~~~
olivermarks
Exactly. That's where the battery raw materials are too.

