

Endgame: collapse is beginning in earnest - dood
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2010/02/endgame.html

======
rsheridan6
I remember coming across an innumerate post on this blog once before, bringing
in some reality, and being told to leave. I note that there's no quantitative
analysis in this post. His message seems to be that the sky is about to fall
because some state governments aren't paying for food stamps, etc, which is
reading a bit much into it.

Here was that post: [http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2008/07/trailing-
edge...](http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2008/07/trailing-edge-
technologies.html)

He thinks that going back to the 50s and getting rid of microcontrollers in
sewing machines would save substantial amounts of energy, and he didn't let
the fact that those microcontrollers draw minuscule amounts of energy compared
to the sewing machines and could result in a net savings if they allowed it
run for a second less change his mind. So I would take anything he says with a
grain of salt.

~~~
dood
I confess (as the poster) that I'm not a huge fan or even a regular reader of
this blog.

But his writing is often stimulating, provocative and insightful; and moreover
provides a useful counterpoint to the startup and technology blogs I spend
most of my procrastination time reading.

Edit: note that he is not saying "the sky is about to fall", on the contrary
he specifically says "the changes involved won't be sudden". Whatever flaws he
has, he is not the alarmist, paranoid type. He is urging awareness and
preparedness in the face of some worrying trends.

------
davidw
> half the American workforce has no steady work, decaying suburbs have
> mutated into squalid shantytowns, and domestic insurgencies flare across the
> south and the mountain West,

Lucky for me I'd been off-planet on vacation at the time of the war. There
wasn't much to do. All the bowling alleys had been wrecked, so I spent most of
my time looking for beer. One day I was out looking for a nice place to build
a city for my children when I spotted a mutant in the forbidden zone. I landed
my vehicle to pursue and destroy this genetic freak before he could warn other
mutants in the underground caves.

~~~
nathanwdavis
Thank you, you have made my day.

------
ilamont
_"If I read the signs correctly, America has finally reached the point where
its economy is so deep into overshoot that catabolic collapse is beginning in
earnest."_

The problem is the author did not read the signs correctly. There are definite
problems to be sure, but the catastrophe he is predicting ("stock their
pantries ... learn a practical skill or two") is paranoid, head-for-the-hills
nonsense that seems to crop up a lot these days, not only because of the
political and economic changes that have occured over the last decade, but
also thanks to the Internet, which lets such views gain a much wider audience
and amplification than they would have in the 20th century.

One comment about local tax revenue: There will be a correction in some
states, starting with California and many municipalities. The end of state
funding and a sharp reduction in property tax revenue will force layoffs,
bureaucratic restructurings, and an end to the generous pension and benefit
plans that many public servants now enjoy. It just can't be sustained. But he
is going too far in his suggestion that it's part of some "end of days"
scenario.

~~~
dood
_paranoid, head-for-the-hills nonsense that seems to crop up a lot these days_

It is worth noting that this blogger, while a major commentator in the
'collapse scene', has always been on the other end of the spectrum, arguing
for calm and reason against the paranoid, head-for-the-hills types.

Not that he is telling people to head for the hills in this post - rather he
seems to be arguing that we should pay attention to some what is really going
on, and prepare ourselves for possible repercussions accordingly.

~~~
westbywest
Doesn't the mere existence of a 'collapse scene' suggest such commentators
still enjoy enough idle time (aka sufficient employment, food supply, shelter,
leisure time) to make the commentary in the first place, and thus that the
prognosticated magnitude of the economic collapse is exaggerated?

People are not dying of exposure or starvation in refugee caravans across the
plains, as they did in the 30s. Urban families are not sending their pre-teen
daughters to work 14hour factory shifts 6 days a week just to be able to
afford semi-rotten food from the nearby grocer, as they did at the turn of the
last century.

It seems we would have much further to fall before genuine survival is
imperiled.

~~~
dood
_It seems we would have much further to fall before genuine survival is
imperiled._

I quite agree, things have to get a lot worse before most of us here are
seriously affected. But I think it is worth being aware of the trends.

To quote Gibson: "The future is already here. It's just not very evenly
distributed"

------
yannis
For the sake of all my American friends here as some sure signs of a country's
imminent collapse (from direct experience). First there will be water
shortages and the mains water becomes undrinkable. Second you will get
electricity blackouts at irregular intervals and then the country will reach a
point where the electricity is more off than on. Thirdly the pot holes in the
roads will start growing. Fourthly the cops - especially the traffic cops will
become very friendly in the pursuit of bribes and very zealous in enforcing
all rules and regulations.

If you are experiencing any of these recently in the State you are living, I
suggest you increase your debt to maximum (you can pay it down the line with
hyperinflation money or just ignore it) stock up on your ipods and laptops and
host your application on a .eu or .asia domain and enjoy the new exchange
rates!

For more information on survival tactics you can contact the
flatearthsociety.org :)

------
hans
Why does he say to "clear your debts" in preparation for the collapse, I would
think you should fire up more debt, its all going down anyway ... ?

~~~
prewett
I think because he's predicting deflation. In deflation, the currency
increases in value, so your debt effectively gets bigger. In a deflationary
time, cash is king.

------
zephyrfalcon
I don't care for the doom and gloom talk, but the story "Star's Reach" from
the same author is interesting: <http://starsreach.blogspot.com/>

