

How Computer Modelers Took On the Ebola Outbreak - newsbeagle
http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/software/how-computer-modelers-took-on-the-ebola-outbreak

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dmlorenzetti
The error bounds shown in the figure labeled "The Problem With Prophecy" are
almost comically narrow. DTRA is very familiar with propagating uncertainty in
their software. It's hard to imagine they weren't aware of how shaky these
predictions were likely to be.

Yet DTRA is also very familiar with the need to base decisions on the best
information available at the time the decision has to be made. It's hard to
imagine they weren't happy to have even shaky predictions at their disposal.

These guys live in a very different world to most of us. At one point my
research group was developing rules of thumb for first responders in the event
of a release of a chemical/biological agent in or near a building. We
vacillated on certain aspects of the advice, because no matter what guidelines
we proposed, we could always think of a scenario in which that was the worst
possible thing for a first responder to do.

Our indecision finally got broken when a group member talked to a professional
trainer of police. He flat-out stated (in paraphrase) "You don't have to be
right 100% of the time. If you are right 51% of the time, that's better than
having the guys on the ground making things up as they go along."

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bryanleroylewis
As one of the researchers in this article, i have to add my 2 cents, i like
how this story tells the tale of this work, it was challenging and
invigorating.

The long-term predictions were always provided as "no way this can happen" but
if nothing changes about people's behaviors, and these trends continue, this
is what the world would look like. Always meant as a guide to how serious the
problem we were facing was, never as an actual prediction.

I second @dmlorenzetti and their comment. Real-time support of decision making
and guiding policies is more about rough estimates of things being better or
worse and if your lucky a way to rank the possible actions on that scale.
Decision-makers are grateful for any qualifications and estimations they can
get in the uncertain world which they are operating in.

