
Support Grows for a Seattle to Vancouver Bullet Train - jseliger
https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/support-grows-seattle-vancouver-bullet-train-feasability-study
======
JumpCrisscross
> _it would cost between $125 million to $1 billion per mile to build the
> Seattle to Vancouver line_

One of the problems with the American rail debate is you have people who like
rail and people who like low taxes. The two don't overlap. Thus, the former
sees any opportunity to lay rail as an opportunity to hose taxpayers.

"China’s high speed rail with a maximum speed of 350 km/h has a typical
infrastructure unit cost of about $17-21m per km, with a high ratio of
viaducts and tunnels, as compared with $ 25-39 [million U.S. dollars] per km
in Europe and as high as $ 56 [million U.S. dollars] per km currently
estimated in California" [1]. The Seattle/Washington per-mile costs above
translate to $78 to $625 million dollars per kilometre.

[1] [http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-
release/2014/07/10/co...](http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-
release/2014/07/10/cost-of-high-speed-rail-in-china-one-third-lower-than-in-
other-countries) _2014_

~~~
X86BSD
I'm a big fan of rail. I wish we had a bullet train going from E to W coast
through Kansas City. I would happily pay more taxes for it.

The thing for me is ive never understood why the cost per mile is so freaking
outrageously stupidly full retard high for rail. Road doesn't cost nearly as
much.

Is it the material? Labor? There isn't much material per mile. Why is it so
high per mile? Who has done extensive looking into this and can explain it?

~~~
kposehn
It's a ton of stuff rolled in to one.

First, regular railbed isn't nearly as hard to build because the standards are
much lower. When you're building for 70mph max freight you have a totally
different need than 186mph+ HSR.

For example, HSR uses a high alignment specification. This means a great deal
of effort goes into ensuring that there are as few variations in the alignment
as possible to ensure it is stable.

You also have cost of catenary (overhead wires), cost of bridges, tunnels and
grading for a much straighter tangent and finally all the electrical and
signaling infrastructure behind it.

(Note that the signals are in-cab signals but modern systems such as those
from GE/Alstom or Siemens still require lineside equipment.

~~~
gozur88
You have a lot more route flexibility with standard rail as well, since the
track doesn't have to be as straight. This is going to translate into lower
site acquisition costs.

I agree with OP, though - even taking that all into account it seems like
we're getting soaked.

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kposehn
Notes:

1\. The most realistic speed is actually 186mph (300kmh) max making for a
~90min trip between Seattle and Portland - which is still great.

2\. There's a completely alternate alignment for a good chunk of the Seattle-
Portland distance (former Milwaukee road branch lines and the old chela is
western). There is also a rebuilt alignment of the old Tacoma western that
will just went in service that will cut 30min off then trip from Tacoma to
Olympia anyway.

3\. Interestingly, it shouldn't be thought of as a mid-distance intercity
train. It's a commuter train at higher speed. In Japan a huge number of people
commute on the Shinkansen. Imagine if you could commute in 20min from Everett
to Seattle or Olympia to Tacoma.

~~~
jrpt
Sure it'd be nice, but at what cost? The estimate of $125 million to $1
billion per mile is incredibly expensive.

~~~
bildung
Is cost per mile a reasonable metric? Shouldn't that be cost per passenger per
year or something similar?

~~~
Arnt
Both are, for different purposes.

Cost by distance is reasonable for talking about construction (the supply
side). See
[https://pedestrianobservations.wordpress.com/2011/05/16/us-r...](https://pedestrianobservations.wordpress.com/2011/05/16/us-
rail-construction-costs/) for an overview. Even $125m/mile places the project
a little high on that list, among mostly-tunnel and all-tunnel projects, and
$1b/mile is in the WTF zone.

Cost by passenger or passenger-trip is reasonable for talking about utility
(the demand side).

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jdminhbg
Seattle is in the midst of a $1.9 billion 4.3-mile light rail extension that
will take over a decade to complete:
[http://www.seattlepi.com/local/transportation/article/Sound-...](http://www.seattlepi.com/local/transportation/article/Sound-
Transit-completes-tunneling-for-Northgate-9200711.php)

As awesome as this sounds, it sounds almost delusional in the current
planning/cost/funding climate to price this at $20-30 bn and 15 years.

~~~
twoslide
I am sure you're right, but it is disappointing that this is the case. Rapid
Chinese expansion of HSR suggests that it is technically possible to do it
much more quickly.

~~~
NotSammyHagar
We would be screwed by the border crossing from canada to the us. You'd have
to completely do it in canada. There's discussion of this below, but since i
now live in idiocracy, I have little hope.

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Tiktaalik
I've taken the Amtrak from Vancouver to Seattle and Portland and various stops
in between. Excepting the low speeds and infrequent departure times it's such
a great service. A HSR train that would fix these problems would be a dream
and there would surely be a big tourism boost along the corridor.

One of the benefits of rail would be that you have the ability to have
downtown to downtown service and you potentially take a lot of cars off the
road. Seattle is dramatically improving its transportation system and it's
pretty reasonable to think that in the near future it could be totally viable
to travel between Vancouver, Seattle and Portland without a car, leveraging
public transit and bike share (oh wait Seattle killed theirs...) to get
around.

Another big advantage of the train is that it's pretty simple and easy to take
a bike along. Pretty useful if you want to go on a bike touring trip in
Washington or Oregon or just dash into Portland for a weekend but have your
bike along so that you can move about the city easily.

Vancouver is currently undergoing the a planning process for the Flats
industrial neighbourhood, which includes the old central rail station. I was
the nerd that went to the transportation meeting and stuck the "keep the door
open to HSR" post it note on the ideas board. I was happy to see that there
was a mention of the potential for HSR in the area in the draft plan, though I
doubt city planners really believe that strongly that it's a potential
reality.

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stevenjgarner
I wonder what portion of cross-border travelers make transport decisions based
on immigration concerns? I sincerely doubt Jay Inslee's feasibility study will
look realistically at the role immigration plays in cross-border travel
decisions. I was denied entry into Canada in the past few months, while
holding an airline ticket from Chicago to Victoria. My Electronic Travel
Authorization (eTA) was not approved by Canadian authorities. This left me
with no other option other than to change my air travel to fly to Seattle,
rent a car, drive across the border to Vancouver (during a blizzard) and catch
the ferry to Victoria (all at great extra cost, but otherwise without
incident). I was told by several airline staff on different airlines and by
border officials themselves that this was all too common. The Canadian eTA web
process is broken (I am still unable to upload simple PDF files to my
application), and I can only assume such a Bullet Train would require eTA
approval.

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revscat
Won't happen. The political reality is that America is opposed to these
things, and I'm not sure which party is more to blame.

Sorry, but it's true. These things come up over and over again, only to be
killed root and branch by whatever means necessary.

~~~
matheweis
I think it's simply that America has a larger geographical scale relative
Europe causing there to be a lower ROI...

That being said, I never have understood why we can't get support for a bullet
train from San Francisco to Los Angeles.

~~~
coliveira
It has little to do with geography and everything to do with the auto
industry. They don't want to allow public transportation as government-
sponsored way to reduce the profits of the auto industry.

~~~
Agustus
What active work do the automotive companies do to discourage rail?

The light and high speed rail companies put on a very good dog and pony show
to representatives. They shower them with money, explain the economic
incentives and all sorts of other items. The government will then actively try
to sell it to the tax base. Any person speaking out against it is called as a
Luddite or sponsored by the oil industry (although these are contrived, as
they are actually representatives of a economic think tank). The head winds
for rail is always heavily supported by a directly benefiting industry. So, I
am genuinely interested in your source for the automotive statement you made.
Also, please do not use l up the unproven "conspiracy" from prior to world war
2.

~~~
Kluny
Usually it comes in the form of telling blue-collar people that any threat to
their business model is a threat to their jobs. It seems to be very effective.

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StClaire
That whole area is completely geologically unstable. Before we build a bullet
train we need to reinforce major buildings in Seattle and prepare Vancouver
_Island_ for a tsunami

~~~
blazespin
I think you meant to say Vancouver Island. Vancouver has a massive island
protecting it from a tsunami.

~~~
flukus
Would the island protect it or help to funnel all the water up the bay?

~~~
chx
Protect it. I live on the shores of English Bay and the water typically barely
ripples, waves are rare and more than that is practically unheard of. Compare
this to the Pacific Ocean storms out on the open.

~~~
kobeya
That's not what a tsunami is though. A tsunami is not a wave in the sense you
allude to, it is the whole water level rising in unison. A breakwater does not
protect you from a tsunami.

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Canada
This would be so great, but the biggest impediment to transport between
Seattle and Vancouver is the border. Both sides treat incoming passengers in
an appalling manner.

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kposehn
There's been a lot of comments about Chinese HSR here costs, figure I can
cover a few things:

1\. Their labor cost per mile is a tiny fraction and their work safety
standards are far different.

2\. Iirc (not 100% sure) the cost per mile is lower as well because they are
not taking into account property acquisition costs.

3\. The actual equipment they use comes from companies either not selling at a
profit or at a steep discount.

I still don't have an accurate enough picture here, but it doesn't seem apples
to apples at least.

~~~
saosebastiao
You would expect that the US would have costs that align more with Germany,
UK, France, or Switzerland, wouldn't you? And yet, those countries' costs look
far more like China's than they do the US. The US is the outlier here, not
China.

~~~
kposehn
Hmm, good point.

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hackuser
I wonder how recently intensified U.S. customs enforcement will affect this
project?

It affects demand for travel to the U.S.:

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13742033](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13742033)

And the difficulty of crossing the border could deter some passengers:

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13741423](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13741423)

~~~
bruceb
Currently for VAN-SEA train they inspect your passport before at the train
station before you board. It also stops at the border but they just walk
through the train. Of course they could hold you then but for the most part
you would be denied entry on the train without being detained.

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dexterdog
> it would cost between $125 million to $1 billion per mile to build the
> Seattle to Vancouver line

$2 billion per mile is a lot of money.

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GingerBoats
Honestly, I would prefer that Seattle get their own transportation system in
order for commuters. Support and focus on a "bullet train" to Vancouver is a
rather moot point, especially at the price point.

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guyzero
One hour travel time and three hour delay while the CPB agent grills you on
the wikipedia definition of a red-black tree.

([https://twitter.com/cyberomin/status/835888786462625792](https://twitter.com/cyberomin/status/835888786462625792))

~~~
angry_octet
I kept reading the tweets because I was sure it was a joke. That is bizarre! I
wonder how big their corpus of questions is? Are they going to save all the
answers to do deep learning on? INS CAPTCHA!

If only I had the balls to put down Gerbil Rancher for profession.

