
Amazon is the new Walmart - elsewhen
http://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-is-the-new-walmart-2017-8
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Nokinside
What everybody can agree with is that AMZN stock price is massively
overvalued.

Amazon is on low margin retail business. Amazons market cap is $475B. Assuming
10% ROI and 3% profit margin, Amazon must make $16 trillion in revenue some
time in the future to justify the current price.

US retail sales are $5 trillion.

Total retail sales across the globe are $22 trillion.

Even if Amazon continues to grow at current pace, it runs out of markets to
dominate before current stock price can be justified.

Bezos announced that he is unloading $1B per year. Smart man this Bezos guy.

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pmoriarty
If there's one thing that I've learned from living through the first internet
bubble is that there's no such thing as a stock price that's "too high" or
"overvalued". Some people will pay anything as long as they think they think
they can sell it for a profit to the bigger fool.

~~~
Nokinside
This is true.

Unfortunately markets have limited supply of fools with money. When the supply
runs out, there is a correction.

Figuring out when the correction happens is hard. It can take several years
before the AMZN value is corrected. I would say that it happens within three
years, but I could be wrong.

~~~
pmoriarty
People were constantly predicting Amazon's fall (and that of a ton of other
skyrocketing stocks) throughout the whole of the first internet bubble. They
were all wrong, until they were right.

~~~
Nokinside
There is difference between company failing and company price collapsing.
Amazon may do fine, it's just that Amazon's price will be radically adjusted.

When Internet bubble busted in last time. The Four Horseman of Tech
(Microsoft, Dell, Cisco and Intel) lost 75% of their market value.

Intel was valued $73.94 in 2000, now it's 36.3. The value of the stock never
recovered even if the company is still going strong.

Microsoft's value has been below it's bubble valuation 16 years and it broke
it's previous record last year.

It took Amazon stock price 10 years to recover from 2000 bubble.

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afinlayson
Amazon is the Middle/Upper classes Walmart.

It's hard to have a package sent to you if you don't have a secure way to grab
it.

