
Beijing Presses Hong Kong Government to Quell Unrest - JumpCrisscross
https://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-presses-hong-kong-government-to-quell-unrest-11564404626?mod=rsswn
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sambroner
The headline seems obvious, but this actually is an escalation. Beijing is
requesting change, by what seems to be any means necessary, in a public video
conference. It seems to be a warning, until this quote.

 _“We have noted that the special region’s government has already done some
serious summary and reflection,” said Xu Luying, a spokeswoman for the affairs
office, citing Mrs. Lam as saying she would “change the administrative style,
and listen to public opinion more openly and inclusively.”_

I'm surprised by that language as it seems to be targeted at a Western,
potentially even Coastal US, audience. Especially when sending Chinese troops
has appeared to be a possible option of last resort.

All in all, I'm not sure what to make of the situation, but I hope that the
conflict gets resolved in a way that allows Hong Kong to maintain further
sovereignty. I doubt that that it will.

~~~
mytailorisrich
Saying that sending troops is an option of last resort is stating the obvious
and legal reality (the Hong Kong executive can request help from the PLA by
law).

While this can be interpreted as a threat, I highly doubt that the central or
Hong Kong governments are considering the option.

Really, the central government does not need to do anything at the moment.
Realistically these protests cannot lead anywhere and the only ones they hurt
are Hong Kong people themselves and their future at a time when Hong Kong is
no longer strategically important (although still important).

~~~
georgeecollins
>> Realistically these protests cannot lead anywhere

Perhaps they could prevent legal extradition to the mainland? I think that
people in Japan, South Korea and most importantly Taiwan watch what is going
on. China has all the cards to play, but they will hurt their soft power if
they are too draconian.

~~~
ETHisso2017
≫Perhaps they could prevent legal extradition to the mainland?

Haven't they accomplished that already?

~~~
NicoJuicy
And they can pick it up later, when the unrest seddles.

So no :)

~~~
mytailorisrich
What do you suggest, though?

The government can propose bills. So even if they fully withdraw the current
bill you can never have certainty that there won't be a similar bill proposed
in the future.

Therefore I think that they have achieved all they could about this issue.

~~~
NicoJuicy
No,

Previously, Lam suspended the bill amid mass protests, saying it will expire
next July when the Legislative Council’s current term ends. But protesters
have continued to demand the plan be axed completely.

[https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/07/09/hong-kongs-carrie-
lam-...](https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/07/09/hong-kongs-carrie-lam-declares-
extradition-bill-dead-stops-short-full-withdrawal/)

------
duxup
While the running theory is "China can wait it out" has been going on for
quite some time, especially when HK was more critical to the Chinese economy.
I'm not sure that is entirely the case anymore.

China has been more aggressively pushing their priories in recent decades /
years internally and externally. Internally Xi has taken hold and arguably the
current Chinese government is far less tolerant of opposing views than in the
past.

I wonder if internally the ongoing issue in HK is seen by Xi and Co. as
something that makes them look bad. If they feel that the situation in HK is a
threat (even if just bad PR) to them... they may feel the need to act in new
ways.

~~~
ethbro
This seems similar to events during the Cold War.

The majority of the West's major miscalculations occurred because they were
evaluating Soviet responses through a democratic political lense.

When a fall from power means a firing squad (though less so now) or labor camp
and total asset seizure, political calculus changes substantially.

If Xi's grip on power were threatened, there are a lot of things that would be
reasonable for him to do... that would appear very unlikely to any observer in
a democratic country.

The PLA wasn't sent into Beijing in 1989 because it was the smart play. It was
sent in because the alternative was to cede power to a citizenry you'd just
spent decades terrorizing and murdering. (The madness of the Cultural
Revolution having happened about 10 years earlier)

~~~
duxup
Yeah and Xi seems to have much more centeralized control than party control in
the past ... an individual (or smaller group) may make far more unpredictable
decision than say a large party who may naturally wish for stability.

~~~
ethbro
Mao had a bit. ;)

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of_the_Communist_Part...](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of_the_Communist_Party_of_China)

~~~
duxup
I guess I should have qualified that as "since Mao" ;)

~~~
ethbro
I was honestly pretty surprised how short Xi's reign has been. I guess a few
decades will show which part of the list he falls under.

~~~
duxup
Well he wasted no time in consolidation of power.

------
ab_c
The PLA will happily storm HK if the HK govt requests it... but they won't.
The reason is money.

If the PLA move in, the wealthy elite in HK will start moving their assets out
-- likely to Singapore. Political instability is never good for investments
and when a handful of the millionaires/billionaires start migrating their
wealth, it'll become a mass exodus.

~~~
jorblumesea
HK only amounts to a small percentage of China's GDP now. This is also why HK
has less free rein in its affairs. The "one state two systems" policy was
convenient when HK was a giant in China and they needed the cash. With the
economic free zones and growth of China itself, it's just less important
compared to other cities in Guangdong. China would absolutely take a 2-3% GDP
cut to be ridden of HK problems.

China is far more worried about public image and international condemnation.
Especially with all of the other scrutiny on China's affairs (xinjiang
concentration camps etc)

~~~
headsupftw
"HK only amounts to a small percentage of China's GDP now" Echoing this
statement, HK accounted for 18% of China's GDP when it became part of China in
1997. Today its neighboring city Shenzhen alone generates more GDP than HK.
Nobody saw this coming twenty years ago.

~~~
jorblumesea
The Chinese definitely saw it coming. The special economic zones were a
specific plan to undercut HKs power and fuel mainland growth, which the CCP
directly controlled. The mainland has always distrusted what it deems to be
subversive ideas. HK and its ideas towards democracy has always been an
existential threat.

------
justicezyx
CCP does not care much. As someone said recently, the economical and political
and cultural value of HK is diminishing rapidly in the past, and HK as to
China becomes much less relevant.

The bottom line is no more political advancement that might causes dissidents
inside the mainland. That's just no political reform in HK. And there should
not be large scale violence. Everything else, up to the local government.

HK won't be a role model for Taiwan. Despite numerous people using that for HK
to be treated as somewhat more precious than it has been. My simple read is
that everyone in China know Taiwan is different than HK, no one in China
believe Taiwan will go through HK's struggle. For one thing, Taiwan has a real
substantial economy that is complimenting to the mai land and is much larger
in size and diversity, and HK does not.

~~~
thedudeabides5
What would change in your assessment then were the mainland government to
mobilize the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in the next two months?

How likely do you think that is to occur?

~~~
justicezyx
There is various law to govern that.

I doubt though that will happen.

Plainly, military force is not needed. If HK was ruined, so be it. That's what
I read from mainland's sentiment.

~~~
tepidandroid
This is my take on mainland sentiment also. If it comes down to HK being torn
apart by some group, the CCP would rather that group be the HKers themselves
than the PLA. HK is sufficiently culturally, politically and geographically
insulated that don't have to worry about the unrest spreading over to the
mainland. They’ll let them burn their own city down if that’s what they want -
and if they do, the problem largely solves itself because an act like that
would alienate most reasonable HKers from their cause.

What they won’t tolerate is an external force stepping in on behalf of the
protestors because that would be a direct challenge to their sovereignty over
the region. That’s the one and only scenario where the PLA has a possibility
of being deployed.

The CCP has time on their side when it comes to dealing with this issue. Are
the businesses in HK attempting to conduct their day to day operations able to
say the same thing [1][2]?

[1] [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-29/hong-
kong...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-29/hong-kong-
protests-knock-investor-confidence-in-city-s-shares)

[2] [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-28/hong-
kong...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-28/hong-kong-s-
economy-hit-by-protests-finance-secretary-chan-says)

~~~
pertymcpert
How do you know all of this?

