
BMW's Electric Strategy Makes No Sense - valiant-comma
https://jalopnik.com/bmws-electric-strategy-makes-no-sense-1838996510
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rsync
"Eight years ago, it looked like BMW was positioning itself in a good place
for the electric future."

No, it didn't. They had a single, sub-brand model (the i3) that was neither
technologically interesting nor performant.

"It founded BMW i, a sub-brand to bring electrified products to its dealers"

I didn't want a cutesy little i-car. I wanted an electric 7-series. There have
been three model iterations of the 7-series since the Model S was revealed ...
and they have nothing to show for all of that time.

To auto makers: We don't want your _electric car_ , we want _your car,
electric_.

"... BMW’s current plans as reported by InsideEVs, which include keeping the
6-year-old i3 around for a few more years and canceling the i8 entirely."

The i8 was not an electric car - it was a a hybrid car with a little chainsaw
engine inside that had worse performance than (I believe) even a base spec
Tesla 3 series (for example).

There was never a serious strategy and there were was a single (silly)
e-mobile/i-car.

I repeat: We don't want your " _electric car_ ", we want _your car, electric_.

~~~
cnasc
> No, it didn't. They had a single, sub-brand model (the i3) that was neither
> technologically interesting nor performant.

The i3 didn’t exist 8 years ago. What BMW did have then, and for some time
before, was essentially a test fleet of electric 3-series sedans. They had a
graphic applied to the sides so you could tell it was one of them.

Those were essentially what you’re asking for, and what the article says was
poised to be a sensible strategy. For whatever reason they decided to do the i
sub brand instead, and that’s where there strategy makes no sense.

~~~
tdiggity
People loved these too. The problem was that you couldn’t buy the car after
the lease was up, bmw wanted them all back to destroy.

~~~
foepys
Maybe they wanted them back to study the parts? It's a completely new type of
vehicle for them so they might have wanted real world data about the
components.

~~~
tdiggity
Yea, that could be. At the time, the Leaf was just released, and The Tesla
model S was on the verge of being delivered. To consumers, it felt like BMW
wasn’t listening to their customers. We just wanted a normal car that had an
electric drivetrain and reasonable range. When the i3 debuted, its styling
skewed towards the Leaf/Prius. A lot of people didn’t want a car that stood
out like that. I think a not-insignificant part of Tesla’s success was that
the Model S looks pretty normal.

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mdorazio
BMW's EV strategy makes perfect sense from a short-term perspective. Re-
tooling factory lines for EV powertrains is expensive and time consuming.
Coming up with a post-sales revenue model that doesn't rely on
fixing/replacing ICE powertrain parts is hard. Scaling battery pack and
related components production to meet potential demand for something like an
electric 3-series is hard _and_ expensive. Meanwhile, gas prices haven't shot
through the roof and the overall auto market is shrinking, which is putting _a
lot_ of pressure on OEM margins.

Is it a foolish long-term strategy? Yes. Does it make sense if your goal is to
maximize profits over the next three years? Absolutely.

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gok
Traditional auto manufacturers are mostly approaching EVs the same way old
mobile phone makers approached smartphones. They remain convinced that ICE
cars (dumbphones) and hybrids (featurephones) will remain relevant
indefinitely, even when there is ample evidence that BEVs (smartphones) are
the only logical path forward.

Without a dramatic change in course I don't see many of these car companies
surviving another 15 years.

~~~
xallace
> I don't see many of these car companies surviving another 15 years

especially BMW, they are a very conservative brand. their whole culture
revolves around old money, do they understand the future? do they care?

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tjansen
I remember reading that many of the assumptions BMW made for the i3 didn't
hold true. The main design focus of the i3 was the expensive low-weight
carbon-fiber body. They regretted that later when it turned out that the cars'
weight didn't have that much of an impact on the efficiency.

Also, when I drove an i3, I was seriously underwhelmed. It just felt too small
to be practical and didn't drive well enough to be fun. I think Tesla's
strategy of starting with large, expensive vehicles make more sense. Most
people who can afford an expensive car don't want a tiny car.

~~~
ErikCorry
Yes. The focus on weight makes perfect sense for their combustion engine cars,
but they went totally overboard with it on the i3. The cost of all that carbon
fibre made success impossible.

The other big mistake was the 2 gallon petrol tank on the hybrid version. They
had the opportunity to have the only hybrid on the market that has no gearbox,
no complicated transmission, no clutch and a decent sized battery. But nobody
wants to have to stop to fill up every 50-60 miles.

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KaiserPro
THe author dismisses the eletric mini out of hand.

Unlike any other electric car on the market, its _cheaper_ than the petrol
model.

That alone is far more disruptive than anything else. I accept that a lack of
high end electric is bad, but not end of the world.

~~~
thejenk
Is the electric mini cheaper than the standard 3 door hatch? The only price
points I'm seeing are £16195 for petrol [1] and £24400 after UK incentives for
the BEV [2].

[1]:[https://www.mini.co.uk/en_GB/home/range/mini-3-door-
hatch.ht...](https://www.mini.co.uk/en_GB/home/range/mini-3-door-hatch.html)
[2]:[https://www.mini.co.uk/en_GB/home/range/mini-
electric.html](https://www.mini.co.uk/en_GB/home/range/mini-electric.html)

~~~
tonyedgecombe
It’s only cheaper if you compare it to the high end Cooper. It’s an exercise
in positioning for BMW.

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jerome-jh
None of the EV strategies make sense from a CO2 emissions point of view,
because producing batteries already emits the equivalent of driving the same
petrol car for 80000 to 100000km. In countries where electricity is largely
carbon based (such as Germany), the EV never offsets the CO2 emissions of the
petrol one during its lifetime. Only hybrids make sense: it yields the largest
fuel reduction per kg of battery, while still being usable cars.

~~~
rhinoceraptor
The highest estimate for battery production I can find is 17.5 tonnes of CO2
for a 100kWh battery. Most EVs have smaller batteries than that.

One liter of gas will produce about 9.3 kg of CO2 (including production and
transport), so with an average fuel economy of 10.58 km/kg, you'd need to
drive 20,000 km before the 100 kWh EV makes up for its battery. That's a
little less than the average American drives in a year.

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moneytide1
I saw an ad for an electric BMW on Reddit today. The very first sentence was
"forget other electric vehicles." This tells me that someone writing copy for
a living was employed as a measure to somehow increase interest and sales. The
only thing they could do was reference other companies that make EV's (I'm not
even going to say the name of the one that everyone will automatically think
of when instructed to "forget other EVs").

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netfl0
Interesting analysis, but I wonder if they have plans the author is not aware
of.

BMW knows Tesla is eating their 3 series lunch. I’d be surprised if they had
nothing up their sleeve.

~~~
tachyonbeam
As far as I know, no other car manufacturer has the battery production
capacity Tesla has, and Tesla itself is limited by its own battery production
capacity. It will take them years to catch up on that front.

~~~
clouddrover
> _It will take them years to catch up on that front_

Not really. They'll just buy batteries from battery makers like CATL, LG, SK
Innovations, Panasonic, etc. as well as pursue partnerships with companies
like Northvolt:

[https://www.france24.com/en/20190502-asia-charge-electric-
ca...](https://www.france24.com/en/20190502-asia-charge-electric-car-battery-
production)

~~~
netfl0
This was my thought as well. Regarding modularity, batteries seem to be the
easiest to deal with. I was always impressed with Tesla’s idea of laptop
batteries, it essentially has not changed much. Lots of little batteries.

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tibbydudeza
BMW is a small car manufacturer but they will end up as SAAB or sold as brand
to another company (VW) ... won't surprise me if Tesla takes over their 3
series market once they get better at mass manufacturing.|

Toyota is another odd one ... they are still dreaming that Hydrogen fuel cells
is the answer ... as a layman I will be thinking Hindenberg.

~~~
fgonzag
2 million vehicles a year is small? Who's big then? Ford moved 2.5 million
vehicles in 2018...

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ivanstegic
I thought there was an iX3 in the works? No mention of that.

