
Infographic: The Everything Bubble Is Ready to Pop - kensoh
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/editorial/infographic-the-everything-bubble-is-ready-to-pop
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sixhobbits
A lot of valid criticism already about this "info graphic" (advert).

Also not proof of "a bubble", but more interesting to me are the four metrics
presented graphically here
[https://isthestockmarketgoingtocrash.com/](https://isthestockmarketgoingtocrash.com/)

And it's fun to watch those astronomically large debt numbers increasing in
real time.

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pkilgore
Let's say everything written here is accurate, not cherry picked, and fully
contextualized.

Even assuming all that, I'm not sure this site could ever convince me it is a
'problem', given the clear purpose of this site is to sell me something to fix
that 'problem'.

That said, this infographic is missing a lot of context, and basically any
sort of rigorous analysis.

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ebbv
This infographic isn't very convincing. It shows a bunch of forms of valuation
and debt have drastically increased in the last 7 years, but that doesn't
alone mean it's a bubble. You need to establish that the rate of growth is the
same type of thing that preceded other corrections. You need to show that the
growth is irresponsible or problematic.

I believe we are in a bubble, because the valuations of a lot of companies
defy all real logic, and for a number of other reasons I won't get into
because it will just devolve into an argument about what I believe. But I
still find this infographic lacking.

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DenisM
Please indulge? I feel there is a bubble, and I know why, but I’m entirely
powerless to understand how can it possibly deflate? Panic might cause
temporary flight to safety, but there has to be something drastic going on for
the bargain-hunters to sit this one out and let it fall...

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ebbv
Were you not around for the first dot com bubble?

All it takes is the right high profile failure(s) and investors get spooked.
They stop investing, which causes more collapses of companies that can find
investment. They pull their money out, the selling undermines market
confidence and things go kablooie. That's just one example of how it could
happen based on how it did happen before, not a prediction of what will
happen.

The valuations are based on confidence, if the confidence is reduced (not even
entirely gone) it can start a downturn. That can go fast or slow.

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junkscience2017
but in the first .com bubble, companies lived and died only on their stock
activity. these days, the winners have enough cash piled up that a recession
would actually be welcome; it would allow them to buy companies and employees
on the cheap, and many of their flimsy competitors would fold.

if you think Apple, Google and Facebook dominate now, wait until the next
recession. can your company laugh off losing half it's market cap temporarily?
they can

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ebbv
Apple, Google and Facebook are not the issue dude. All the companies that have
yet to really be profitable are. Come on, that's obvious. Of course those
companies which have cash on hand would be fine.

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0x4f3759df
QE money inflated asset prices and low interest rates mean bonds don't deliver
good return so people buy stocks instead. And since we have the looming
pension crisis the we will need a lot more money printing.

If everything is in a bubble, what will pop the bubble? An interesting take is
the baby boomers hit max earning power at 55 and buy a second house, but then
around 65 or 70 they realize the don't need either big house and they downsize
(which will create downward pressure on housing) and they want to annuitize
their assets (sell non-dividend paying stocks, etc)

~~~
toomuchtodo
> An interesting take is the baby boomers hit max earning power at 55 and buy
> a second house, but then around 65 or 70 they realize the don't need either
> big house and they downsize (which will create downward pressure on housing)
> and they want to annuitize their assets (sell non-dividend paying stocks,
> etc)

My initial assumption was that you'd see a glut of housing because of this
(Boomers unloading real estate to downsize), pushing down home prices, helping
first time home buyers. I've recently updated my assumption: Boomers are going
to hold onto their property as long as possible as rentals. People are seeking
out returns where ever they can, which is going to make this intergenerational
housing problem drag on for at least another decade or two.

Housing supply metrics:

[https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/10/23/heres-why-
ho...](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/10/23/heres-why-house-
hunting-so-frustrating-right-now/786034001/)

[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR)

~~~
0x4f3759df
Good point, why sell your house when you can't buy anything that gives a good
return? Better to rent it. So we're in the everything bubble and there is no
pin in sight.

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toomuchtodo
> So we're in the everything bubble and there is no pin in sight.

Indeed. The only solution is to either 1) hustle incredibly hard and hope for
success/a liquidity event/etc or 2) walk away/opt out and find another economy
where you can succeed.

I'm honestly _shocked_ that more first world countries with low birth rates
below replacement rate don't appeal to US citizens to import them, train them,
and have them join their society as valued workers (vs raking them over the
coals in the US with student loans, a broken healthcare system, underpaid/non-
existent jobs, and housing that might be forever out of their reach).

~~~
kogepathic
_> I'm honestly shocked that more first world countries with low birth rates
below replacement rate don't appeal to US citizens to import them, train them,
and have them join their society as valued workers (vs raking them over the
coals in the US with student loans, a broken healthcare system, underpaid/non-
existent jobs, and housing that might be forever out of their reach)._

Most higher education in Europe is free, even for international students. More
and more countries are offering programs at Bachelor or Masters level taught
in English.

What more of a red carpet welcome do Americans need?

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toomuchtodo
> What more of a red carpet welcome do Americans need?

This is a great point, which I'd counter with: marketing. Ever notice how many
locations around the world advertise to come bring your business there? Or
holiday/vacation there? Same idea.

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kogepathic
_> Ever notice how many locations around the world advertise to come bring
your business there?_

France made a very public appeal to climate scientists. [1]

 _> Or holiday/vacation there?_

Anecdotal evidence I know, but almost all of my friends in Canada have or want
to visit Amsterdam. But while they're enjoying pot brownies and the red light
district, Amsterdam has many startups who will hire English speaking
employees.

Or the people who really want to visit Oktoberfest. Munich also has many firms
willing to hire English speakers with the right qualifications.

I will grant that perhaps Europe can do a better (more obvious) job of
appealing to North Americans who want to immigrate. Personally I found it
extremely easy to immigrate from Canada to Europe (no family ties to gain Eau
citizenship), though I had already finished studying.

Another easy option that is often overlooked is the Working Holiday visa. It's
quite easy to obtain and allows someone under 35 to work and travel between
6-12 months in many EU countries.

[1] www.businessinsider.com/emmanuel-macron-american-climate-scientists-
france-2017-6

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bsaul
the choosen metrics seem very suspicious... "number of cryptocurrencies"
doesn't mean anything other than it's easy to create one. bitcoin market cap
growing means there's probably a bubble, but 65 billions is too small to
trigger a systemic crash by orders of magnitude. putting the two close one to
a other is a really cheap trick to make you feel like the monetary system is
in danger. Same for tesla, it doesn't make any sense other than to show that
stock is overvalued.

To call something a bubble you need to identify a market that's "bubbling", a
whole area or sector. otherwise you've only identified a few assets.

housing market is more sensible, but bubble on the housing market have been
announced for the last thirty years, and prices kept climbing. everywhere.
maybe it's not a symptom of a bubble, but just that there's more and more
people, and less and less places they want to live in.

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TheCoelacanth
What is supposed to be the relevance of stating that there are more
cryptocurrencies than fiat currencies. It seems like stating that there are
more cavalry troops than there are aircraft carriers. Both are true, but you
have to be completely deluded to think that raw numbers equates to
significance.

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Cthulhu_
Re: crypto, it's relatively easy to get into and there seem to be a lot of
success stories, so yeah, a lot of people jump into those which boosts the
price to bubble proportions. I'm fairly sure we're going to see a crash after
new year's, once tax evasion periods have passed.

But when it comes to the stock market, I think there's a lot of people that
have gotten on board with that in recent years; at least from my own
perspective, regular boring old savings account have gone from 5% or more down
to 0.5% or even negative interest in some cases; this is probably due to EU-
wide laws to help economic growth in the less economically well-to-do
countries, but still.

On the plus side of that equation however, is that mortgage interest rates are
still very low. I bought a house this year and fixed the interest for 30
years, I'm sure it's going to go up again soon enough.

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yuhong
I wrote [http://yuhongbao.blogspot.ca/2017/12/google-mozilla-and-
debt...](http://yuhongbao.blogspot.ca/2017/12/google-mozilla-and-debt-based-
economy.html) based on Twitter conversations with BrendanEich and others.

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davidpatrick
This is one huge advertisement

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corysama
If anyone has received the report, can you please post a quick tldr?

