
NYC is dead forever – here's why - elsewhen
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/nyc-dead-forever-heres-why-james-altucher/
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doomrobo
Previous discussion

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24175351](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24175351)

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CydeWeys
I live in Manhattan and this article is complete bullshit and riddled with
errors. For example, he's claiming that rents are down 30-50%, which isn't
remotely true.

I'm not going to bother wasting my time on a point-to-point refutation on all
the ways it's wrong, but suffice it to say it is completely wrong. Yes, the
city is suffering, but not remotely to the degree portrayed here.

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mrgordon
Yeah I keep checking rents and they really haven’t come down much. Maybe 10%
at most from a very high peak. I wish people would stop getting me excited by
claiming there are some huge deals to be had.

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mhb
I feel the same way about the supposedly cheap lobster I hear about.

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mrgordon
Yes same! Where is it?!

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jger15
Always find it interesting the narrative difference between those who stayed
in the city and those who left. Each side wants to be right.

I'm biased but I don't think I've ever seen the city more beautiful than this
summer with outdoor dining, street closures for more walkability, etc.

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bootlooped
It seems like there has been more litter on the streets in my neighborhood
than there was pre-pandemic, and there was already a lot there pre-pandemic.

I love the reduced cars on the road and outdoor dining.

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cs702
I disagree. Even if NYC goes "dead" for a while -- maybe even for a generation
-- it will eventually come back.

In every continent today, most major cities have been around for _millennia_ ,
surviving through all kinds of natural and man-made disasters:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_continuously_in...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_continuously_inhabited_cities)

It seems that as long as populations in surrounding areas survive (i.e., as
long as populations aren't wiped out, as apparently happened with, say, Mayan
cities), large cities tend to persist century after century, coming back again
and again.

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bootlooped
The part that scares me most is the finances.

The New York City subway is a crumbling, ancient embarrassment for a world
class city. The costs of doing anything with it are astronomical. With this
financial crisis, who can say it will plausibly get any better than it is now
in the next 15 years? It is more likely to get even worse!

For me, and probably millions of other people, the subway is the key to
accessing the things I love in NYC. I used to take it every weekday to and
from work and every weekend to and from entertainment and dining. It is
something where changes in the quality will be felt immediately.

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elindbe2
As someone who is currently moving out of a major city, I think this is
overblown. COVID will end, probably next year, and the vacuum that drew people
and dollars into NYC will resume. Some people and businesses will move out
during COVID. Many will move in once COVID is over and rents have fallen.

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SippinLean
The article is mostly anecdotal and, at this time, has grammatical errors. The
thing it does most effectively is advertise its author's comedy club.

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momokoko
I think the age of one of the largest generations and the timing of the
pandemic is important to think about.

If you were getting to your 30s, you are about at the age where dual income
career minded couples start to have children. The opportunity to work remote
is convenient to those couples that were looking to move to a smaller more
affordable area as their children made it to school age.

It’s not that the pandemic will never end, its that it gives a lot of people
an easy way to relocate as they do not have to quit their current job and/or
find a job while living outside the area they are trying to move to.

Even if their job requires them to start working in the office again, they’ll
have already had time to get settled in their new area and will have a much
easier tome finding a new job there.

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greghausheer
Please note that this article was written by the "Bitcoin" guy

[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meet-man-behind-bitcoin-
geniu...](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meet-man-behind-bitcoin-genius-ads-
internet-134441715.html)

I wouldn't take anything he says seriously. There's probably a buck in it for
him to flip to write something like this.

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game_the0ry
Here is my anecdotal experience:

* Moved to Manhattan in 2017 for work. When covid hit full steam in March, I decided to stick it out for a while, hoping things were turn or that the reaction to the virus was overkill. Turns out covid was legitimate, and started planning my move in April / May. Moved out at the end of June to live with family in one of the outer boroughs. Living in Manhattan was awful during that time. The city is a pain to live in when circumstances were good, but was pretty much unbearable with covid. It made no sense to stay - I was paying awfully high rent to live in the city and not enjoy it.

* My landlord was a baby boomer business owner who recently brought a 2nd retirement home out of state and was planning on retiring. Covid accelerated her plans, and not in a good way. She is trying to sell her Manhattan home and use the proceeds to pay the mortgage for her new place. She originally listed her home for $1.5M, and now its listed at $1.1M and is still struggling. Her story is likely not unique.

* I work with a team of 7 people at work, 4 of whom (including me) lived in the NY - 2 in BK, 1 in Queens, 1 in Manhattan (me). All are millennials - 3 moved in with family, 1 moved out of state.

* I would say 9/10 millennials I know who could move out of NY has already either moved in with family or out of state.

To emphasize - this is _my_ anecdotal experience. Mine could be exceptional,
but I doubt it.

I love Manhattan - moving to the city was the best decision I ever made and I
was certain I was going to die there. However, recent events are the most
depressing I have seen in my life. I hope NYC bounces back, but I don't see
that happening for a long time, and I don't think I'll be around for when it
does, because I am at the point in my life where I am looking to start a
family.

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jshaqaw
I started a family in NYC and we are still here. It’s very possible to do it
without being a billionaire and it’s a fantastic experience rich way to grow
up. I grew up in the burbs and that was great too. There is no one way to do
things. But if you really love NYC don’t believe you can’t have a great family
life here.

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game_the0ry
If covid did not exist, I would agree with you. But for me, it's not worth the
extra hassle, just my opinion.

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dgudkov
It read to me as a yet another rant, until this:

>In 2008, average bandwidth speeds were 3 megabits per second. That's not
enough for a Zoom meeting with reliable video quality. Now, it's over 20
megabits per second. That's more than enough for high quality video.

I think the author has a point. Not exactly because of the bandwidth (for
instance we're a remote company but we almost never use video in calls).
Advances in technology (mainly the SaaS-ification of everything) slowly
prepared everybody for remote work becoming mainstream. The pandemic only
accelerated it, and forced C-level managers to admit that remote work won't
kill their companies. If not the virus, the shift would've still happened a
few years later. Just more gradually. So from that perspective the author is
right - some changes are irreversible, because technology has made it so.

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tootie
Anecdotally, I've seen about 10:1 ratio of people talking about leaving NYC vs
people actually doing it. In fact, NYC has had a net negative migration rate
for a long time (eclipsed by birth rate). The company I'm with right now
recently declared they will never reopen their offices but NYC employees are
staying put. I can foresee a substantial mid-term decrease in commercial real
estate that may finally bring residential real estate back down to Earth.

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dangus
I read the whole article.

NYC nor any other major city will die from this.

10,000 people want to leave NYC on a Facebook group? NYC has what, 8 million
people?

Half the article is talking about the kind of fears that watching the local
news will get you. You think Phoenix doesn’t have any homeless people? You
think people don’t get shot occasionally in Phoenix? New York City is
literally statistically safer for murder per capita than many of these smaller
cities.

I think the author over-emphasizes how much bandwidth will keep all work
remote, too. Sure, it’ll work for some tech jobs, but the narrative that
productivity has increased across the board is not backed up by convincing
numbers. Only about half the country works a “desk job” from my understanding.

I know for me, personally, as soon as it’s safe to go back to the office, I’m
doing it. I’m tired of subsidizing my employer’s need for real estate. I want
my kitchen table back. But I know that’s a personal anecdote.

The 1918 pandemic didn’t mean that NYC died and I don’t see how this one is
very different.

Mark my words, we won’t be talking about COVID-19 in 2025.

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dahfizz
> New York City is literally statistically safer for murder per capita than
> many of these smaller cities.

This little trick is a pet peeve of mine.

Per capita crime statistics mean nothing to the people living in a city. It
doesn't matter that each person you run into each day is slightly less likely
to be a criminal if you run into 100x more people in NYC than in a small
suburb.

What matters is the question "how likely am I to be the victim of a crime?".
The answer is: a lot more likely in NYC than a small city.

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quicklime
Doesn't "murders per capita" answer that question?

It's "murder _victims_ per capita", not " _murderers_ per capita", so it
doesn't matter if you run into 100x more people in NYC.

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ponker
And even if it was murderers per capita, it would require the assumption that
each murderer is murdering a constant percentage, regardless of location, of
the people that he sees.

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RickJWagner
Wow. What an article.

I live in middle-America, things don't seem so dire here. I hope the author is
wrong, I hope NYC comes right back. My wife and I vacationed there and had a
ball.

Things will probably be different, but I hope it returns in some form or
fashion.

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ykevinator
Who's robyn?

