
College enrollment rates are dropping, especially among low-income students - Amorymeltzer
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/education/wp/2015/11/24/college-enrollment-rates-are-dropping-especially-among-low-income-students/
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medymed
Very limited data provided in the article, and no subgroup analysis by college
type or major or other demographic variables. It is more worrying, to me, if
all low income future engineering students skip college to become line
workers. It is less worrying if the low income students are deciding not to
take 40k in debt for an English degree from a for-profit college they are
unlikely to graduate from.

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bphogan
One thing we've been watching is that there are less people graduating high
school - in other words, there are less people in the school system now. We've
been preparing for this for a couple years now by looking to attract more
veterans and non traditional students looking at retraining.

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nsxwolf
There's got to be a point where prices are high enough and job prospects are
poor enough that people will finally start questioning the "get a degree"
wisdom.

~~~
jseliger
Exactly. Also, I don't have a source for this off the top of my head, but from
what I've read most of the crisis in loan repayments comes from people who
don't graduate. Starting but not graduating may be the most perfidious
outcome.

In addition, "college" doesn't make much sense as a category of discussion,
because "college" is so many different things. I've been writing as much for
years: [http://jakeseliger.com/2012/12/15/college-william-
deresiewic...](http://jakeseliger.com/2012/12/15/college-william-deresiewiczs-
tsunami-and-better-ways-of-thinking-about-university-costs/) and doing so
mostly futilely, it seems.

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mrdrozdov
My impression is that education, like programming assignments, could be
modeled as a step function. You can make a lot of progress, but until you
reach a certain point, you won't see most of the value.

~~~
jseliger
Great point and great analogy. I'm going to start using it.

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grillvogel
why does everyone need to go to college?

why can't we have a apprentice/trade track for people who don't want to waste
time with college (like in most other countries)?

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intopieces
Your kids first. Studies have shown time and time again that despite all those
"Is it worth it?" talk, having a college degree in anything still equals
better earning prospects over a lifetime. Everyone I've talked to who proposed
"fewer people should go to college" / "more people should go to trade schools"
has at least one kid in or graduated from a 4 year degree program.

So when people say "fewer people should go to college," I hear, "other
people's kids should earn less so my kid doesn't."

It's time we took a hard look at how we pay for college and its costs, most
assuredly. But it's not time to discourage people from getting an education,
especially with all the predictions about automation.

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aantix
The colleges are taking a disproportionate amount of credit for kids that
probably already had the gumption to do what it takes to make a higher salary.

I remember a study from a Malcolm gladwrll piece where they compared the
earnings from students who could have gone to UPenn, but opted to go to the
state school, Penn St. The result, the state kids earnings were on par with
the Ivy League School kids.

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intopieces
>The colleges are taking a disproportionate amount of credit for kids that
probably already had the gumption to do what it takes to make a higher salary.

I'd like to know why you think that. When the job application says you must
have a bachelor's degree to be considered, gumption doesn't enter into it.

>The result, the state kids earnings were on par with the Ivy League School
kids.

State school graduates earning a similar wage to Ivy League graduates doesn't
extrapolate to trade school graduates earning as much as state school
graduates.

In any case, the hyper-focus on earnings is misplaced. It says nothing of the
intangible value of an education and the four year college experience, nor the
exposure to various other pursuits that influence a person's entire life
afterwards.

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xiaoma
>I'd like to know why you think that. When the job application says you must
have a bachelor's degree to be considered, gumption doesn't enter into it.

Yeah it does. Many of the jobs I've gotten have had various requirements I
didn't meet, including that particular one. Pretty much the only truly
inflexible sector I've encountered is government. Even there, it's amazing
what can be done if the right people want it done.

I think getting a degree was one of the poorer financial decisions of my life
and not that great in terms of educational outcomes either. Degrees rarely
imply the kind of "intangible value" you're talking of.

TLDR; education > schooling

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intopieces
I think you're an exceptional case. Take a look at the Earnings and
unemployment rates by educational attainment:

[http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htm](http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htm)

If most of these college graduates could have made it where they are without a
degree, wouldn't this count be a little more even? The drastic difference
appears somewhat artificial. I agree that a person doesn't "need" a college
degree to succeed -- but I think it's fair to say it helps quite a bit.

~~~
xiaoma
Earnings are difficult to compare due to the selection bias in admissions.
Even if that weren't the case, you'd have to factor in the compounded interest
from all of the money spent on schooling as well as that of the money not
earned during those four years.

Additionally, there's the cost of delaying and/or slowing one's education
while spending those years schooling (which generally moves at a glacial
pace).

There are some cases in which the schooling truly is worth the cost and yields
exceptional results for those admitted (as opposed to only admitting those who
would be exceptional regardless). Those cases are rare and getting rarer.

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seibelj
Could this have anything to do with the crackdown on for-profit (and often
poor quality) universities that used to vacuum up low income students?

