
CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic - themgt
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/cdc-outlines-what-closing-schools-businesses-would-look-like-in-us-pandemic.html
======
James_Henry
Here are some actual documents on preparing for an influenza pandemic that the
CDC is repurposing to prepare people for the coronavirus because of the
similarity to the spread of the flu.

[https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/pandemic-
prepa...](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/pandemic-preparedness-
resources.html)

States will have their own influenza preparedness plans that they will
probably be following for the coronavirus as well.

One helpful thing that they advise governors to advise individuals to do is to
store up food and enough (but not more than enough) medications.

[https://www.nga.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Pandemic-
Infl...](https://www.nga.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Pandemic-Influenza-
Primer.pdf)

One thing to note is that a lot of the slowing down of disease spreading is
going to be from the voluntary efforts of individuals. We should prepare
ourselves and help prepare people around us to know what's up and what to do
if you think you may be sick.

~~~
numakerg
What are the chances that residential electricity, gas or water get shut off
as a result of an outbreak in North America? I live in a mid-sized town and we
have enough dry beans and cereals to last a few months, but without hot water
it would be a week at most.

~~~
humaniania
Extremely low IMO. From what I have read it's like a stronger version of the
flu.

~~~
koheripbal
I cannot believe people are still saying this. It's literally 1-2 orders of
magnitude more deadly than the flu, and 5% of the survivors walk away with
permanent lung damage.

~~~
humaniania
Where did you see that? I have not seen anything like that reported and I feel
like that would be pretty important information
[https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/as-coronavirus-
spreads-m...](https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/as-coronavirus-spreads-many-
questions-and-some-answers-2020022719004)

~~~
James_Henry
They say in the article that you linked that it looks like 20% of cases are
severe and that the mortality rate is around 3% (though that is probably high
because we are still early on in the epidemic). Last flu season around 1.4% of
symptomatic cases ended up in the hospital and less than .1% of symptomatic
cases ended with death. [https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-
seasons.html](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html)

As for the 5% permanent lung damage figure, ARDS is found in around 20% of
cases with mechanical ventilation for around 12.3%
([https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coronavirus-
disease-2019-c...](https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coronavirus-
disease-2019-covid-19))

Survivors of ARDS often have decreased quality of life including lung damage
and cognitive issues. I wasn't able to find percentages of these issues in
covid-19-related ARDS survivors though.

------
Reedx
It's looking like Coronavirus will be rocket fuel for all things remote. Work,
schooling, conferences... I think we'll see a lot of new tools and processes
emerge. More companies, schools, conferences being remote friendly.

Anyone seeing concrete signs of this at your employer or school yet? And what
other second-order effects do you think we'll see?

~~~
jcranmer
My workplace sent out this update not an hour ago:

> From March 2nd, employees should not attend any large meetings or events
> that are not hosted and controlled by [company], or where attendees cannot
> be confirmed as following a comparable travel policy. Individual or small
> group meetings where you can verify the travel histories of all attendees
> are fine.

~~~
orhmeh09
To clarify: Is your workplace asking you to refrain from attending meetings or
events, even in your private life, unless it is directly concerning your job
there?

~~~
jcranmer
No, this is in regards to official business travel. Personal travel is
entirely separate, and is right now at the stage of "if you visit <any of the
hardest-hit countries>, work from home for two weeks before coming into the
office."

------
twostorytower
I'm glad some people are starting to take this more seriously. We're still at
least a few weeks away from a shift in mentality in the US. Right now, it's
general apathy. Next, it'll be alert and preparedness. Last, it will be panic.
I don't think it will reach chaos, but you certainly don't want to be at
Costco in a few weeks.

There's no downside in being prepared - worst case scenario you slowly consume
the perishables or donate them. In related news, Zoom's stock is surging. I
wonder if Slack's stock will eventually have a similar boom.

~~~
trianglem
What does Zoom and Slack have to do with this?

~~~
Nannooskeeska
I'm assuming it's the increase in people working remotely, thus having to use
tools like Zoom and Slack to communicate more effectively with their teams.

------
ilamont
So I see this information from the CDC and news outlets, but the head of the
World Health Organization seems to be saying something quite different:

 _“For the moment, we are not witnessing the uncontained global spread of this
virus, and we are not witnessing large-scale severe disease or death.”_

[https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/who-tries-to-calm-
ta...](https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/who-tries-to-calm-talk-of-
pandemic-says-the-word-does-not-fit-the-facts/)

~~~
sky_rw
If this pandemic has exposed anything, it's that the WHO is a political entity
woefully unequipped to handle any real scenario. The leadership has been
seemingly downplaying this from day 1 and repeating talking points from the
CCP. They are obviously trying to avoid causing panic in the financial
markets, and putting that above actually informing world leaders and the
public of the danger.

See their recent release stating that they can't call this a pandemic because
they conveniently don't have the criteria setup for that classification any
more.

~~~
soared
Or maybe... they are more equipped than anyone else and are taking the proper,
measured actions?

~~~
sky_rw
The answer to your question is no.

------
y-c-o-m-b
I'm lucky enough to work remotely so if schools do close, I can still earn a
living while the kids are at home. I can't even imagine what kind of hell it's
going to bring parents if schools shut down for any extended period of time.

Same thing with small businesses - shutting them down is really going to hurt
local economies. In my city, small business are about to shut down because of
construction on a main stretch of road where people would ordinarily find
parking. With no parking spaces, the businesses are on the verge of collapsing
due to lack of customers. A shut-down due to this virus would really be
catastrophic.

~~~
ianlevesque
Sure, but killing 2% of the world population instead of closing down a couple
stores also seems bad.

~~~
AncientTree
The 2% figure is misleading, mortality is overwhelmingly restricted to the
elderly and particularly those with existing health problems:

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION DEATH RATE*

Cardiovascular disease 10.5%

Diabetes 7.3%

Chronic respiratory disease 6.3%

Hypertension 6.0%

Cancer 5.6%

no pre-existing conditions 0.9%

AGE DEATH RATE* 80+ years old 14.8%

70-79 years old 8.0%

60-69 years old 3.6%

50-59 years old 1.3%

40-49 years old 0.4%

30-39 years old 0.2%

20-29 years old 0.2%

10-19 years old 0.2%

0-9 years old no fatalities

Shutting down the economy and quarantining whole areas will do more harm than
the virus. Tens of thousands of Americans already die of the flu and
Coronavirus us just a very virulent form of that.

I realise that its grim to talk about, but there may actually be economic
benefits from the very sickest dying from the virus and thus relieving the
burden of large pension and healthcare expenses.

~~~
davidw
2% of the US population is 6 million people.

That's a lot of people.

 _Edit_ : and it might climb if people aren't getting proper care because the
medical system is overloaded.

~~~
AncientTree
The annual death rate in the USA is 2.8m. The virus will spread throughout the
biosphere and become a standard part of the human virus paradigm, like the
common cold or flu.

The best than can be done is to manage and stage its extent as much as
possible, to avoid overwhelming healthcare services all at once. The Japanese
seem to have the same idea.

Cases should be triaged and medical resources dedicated to those aged 50 and
lower, who are still working and in generally good health.

The US pension system across many states, companies, and the federal
Government itself is unsustainable, so this virus may be the key to bring
those programs back into proper operation. Cities like Chicago will face a
huge relief as Coronavirus spreads and lessens their pension burden.

Additionally, the housing freed up could be used by younger people and
families, dramatically improving the quality of life for much of society.
Inheritances could be used by younger generations to invest in businesses or
upgrade personal living situations.

Lower pension and healthcare expenditure will allow lower taxes, perhaps
allowing the elimination of payroll taxes.

The deaths will be tragic but from a purely economic perspective Coronavirus
looks like a major opportunity for Western societies to de-age. We are very
lucky that unlike other Pandemics, this virus is restricted to the sick and
elderly, and barely impacts the young and healthy, unlike say the Spanish Flu.

~~~
gbear0
On the premise that this virus does become standard, I've been wondering
whether post infection you have a better immunity towards other related SARS-
like viruses in the future? In which case, would there potentially be a net
positive if SARS-like viruses no longer have the same effect? Is it possible
that this could be like getting chickenpox young and protecting you from worse
things (measles as adults) in the future?

(note: I know nothing when it comes to health related issues like this so I'm
assuming it's completely naive thought since I haven't seen anyone else
mention anything similar)

------
kwindla
A good COVID-19 preparedness guide that is regularly updated and aimed at the
general population:

[https://theprepared.com/wuhan-coronavirus/](https://theprepared.com/wuhan-
coronavirus/)

------
robomartin
I'm advising everyone in my circle to prepare for a 30 to 45 day at-home stay
and assume no stores will be open during that time. I think this is the
prudent thing to do.

I would also advise speaking to your neighbors to make them aware of the need
to be prepared. To that point, buy a little extra of everything --well, maybe
food only-- so you can help a few people out during what is likely to be a
difficult time. Happy neighbors are as important to safety as anything else.

I'm actually thinking of making a preparedness checklist and going door-to-
door around the neighborhood to hand them out.

~~~
0xffff2
Since you asked,

>I'm advising everyone in my circle to prepare for a 30 to 45 day at-home stay
and assume no stores will be open during that time. I think this is the
prudent thing to do.

I think that's the paranoid thing to do. I'm stocking up a bit so that I can
stay inside if I personally get sick, but that doesn't require 30-45 days of
supplies. I don't even really have room for that much stuff in my tiny
apartment.

>I would also advise speaking to your neighbors to make them aware of the need
to be prepared. To that point, buy a little extra of everything --well, maybe
food only-- so you can help a few people out during what is likely to be a
difficult time. Happy neighbors are as important to safety as anything else.

>I'm actually thinking of making a preparedness checklist and going door-to-
door around the neighborhood to hand them out.

You're obviously much friendlier with your neighbors than I am. If any of my
neighbors did that I would probably assume they were a bit off and avoid
talking to them from then on. I certainly wouldn't act on some random dude's
checklist.

~~~
robomartin
Speaking of what you characterized as being paranoid...

Here's a dose of reality for you:

[https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australians-in-italy-s-
coronavir...](https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australians-in-italy-s-coronavirus-
red-zone-describe-apocalypse-era-conditions)

This could be reality in one or more US cities in days, weeks or months from
now. Would it be better to take the time to be ready for this before people
panic or just wait and wing it? Maybe go door-to-door betting for food and
supplies? Sure, that sounds like an excellent plan.

------
dekhn
Basically every household should already have, regardless of the origin of the
disaster: 1 month of clean drinking water or reliable (tested) filtration
devices and a impure water source (local streams likely to have various
bacteria that will make you sick). 1 month of food that requires minimum water
and fuel to cook (quick oats > slow cook oats). Enough fuel to cook that food
(most of your food should not require cooking). A reliable camping stove that
you have already tested. Plenty of ways to start a fire/stove. Warm clothes,
blankets, med kit, sleeping bags. Soap.

I've lived for 30 days in alaska on a glacier with only what I could carry in
a large pack; water and fuel were the largest by weight, sleeping
bag/tent/clothes were the largest by volume. By the end, campers had devolved
into small groups of people who didn't share food.

~~~
soared
Why should I prep for a disaster? The odds of needing those supplies is
effectively zero, and I don’t have the storage space for them.

~~~
dekhn
You should only prep for disaster if you want to survive a disaster, which is
rare for more people. I live in earthquake country, and though I have not
experienced anything larger than M4 in the past 28 years, stochastically we
can expect a very large ($BILLIONS, with massive short term problems) quake at
some point in Northern California in the next 50 years.

The items I describe fit on a single shelf (except the water; I have a water
filter and a nearby stream, so I only keep a few liters on hand).

------
joshstrange
Not sure if this is the right place but what would be best for one stock up on
ahead of time? I'm thinking non-perishables or stuff with a high shelf life
but what else should you consider buying?

~~~
sky_rw
It seems reasonable to make a run to Costco or Sams club to load up on dry
goods and paper supplies. Better to do so now than after a panic hits. You
don't have to go all doomsday prepper and get 10 year shelf life cans of
beans. But maybe enough toilet paper, ramen noodles, and bottled water to last
through 30 days of not wanting to leave the house much.

Anecdotally, I was in Costco last week and saw a woman shopping directly from
a "Disaster Preparedness Checklist". I strongly suspect that there will be a
wave of panic shopping in the next few weeks. Better to get after it now.
Actually ignore that, wait until I finish shopping then go out.

~~~
joshstrange
Yeah, I'm not building a bunker or anything. I just wanted to stock up of
medicine/water/food in case there was a rush.

~~~
AnimalMuppet
Medicines have me a little worried. I can get a three-month supply, but only
when my previous supply is almost exhausted. I can't get three months extra
"just in case".

Anybody have a good way of dealing with this?

~~~
banana_giraffe
In the past when I've told my pharmacy I'm traveling somewhere with less
medical facilities than the US, they can get a refill sooner from my insurance
provider than I'd otherwise be good for.

That said, it doesn't work for all drugs. One of the medications I'm on now I
can't get filled one day early under any circumstance, nor can I get it
shipped to me. For extra fun points, if I'm late by more than a week, it's
doubtful I can get it refilled ever again.

------
allovernow
We are witnessing a massive geopolitical event. This could be a chance for the
U.S. to reassert it's global hegemony - China has been brought to its knees
over this virus, and a critical weakness of globalism has been exposed, the
dependence that comes with offshoring too much production. This could drive
the return of manufacturing jobs to the U.S.

Rumors abound in China about party members openly criticizing the government,
including a petition signed by 2500 academics and professionals demanding free
speech. Iran is also in full blown crisis after seeing its first case only 3
weeks ago. Two of the U.S.'s primary enemies are in "wartime conditions"
dealing with 2019-ncov.

This is not just another flu. This is not SARS of MERS, this is well into
Spanish Flu territory and it will test the modern geopolitical establishment
and the resilience of human government. At the very least it will define a
generation.

Edit: check the CDC's Twitter. They've suggested that individuals ,including
with families, start preparing "across all sectors" saying "disruption to
everyday life might be severe". The steady stream of silent downvotes I've
been receiving for a few days is a testament to how far people are willing to
go to deny unpleasant realities. This is why there are panics and bank runs
and why the stores will be empty in cities across the U.S. in the next week or
so. It's already happening in Italy.

~~~
hodgesrm
Can you cite evidence of governments that were overthrown or even moderately
affected by the Spanish Flu? It was a terrible epidemic but most effects seem
to have been at the personal or micro-economic level.

~~~
allovernow
I'm not a historian, but you're missing the big picture. The CCP has been
extremely secretive with it's handling of the virus, including employing the
usual means of thought control by forcing whistleblowers to deliver public
statements of apology and disappearing others.

If the rumors regarding dissent are remotely true, anti government sentiment
over how the virus was handled is unprecedented. There are hundreds of leaked
videos online of Chinese citizens publicly expressing discontent. In 2020 it
isn't just the party members that have internet access now - this virus is
likely acting as a trigger for the possible end of the CCP, or at least some
sort of reformation.

Further, the world was not nearly as interconnected and interdependent in the
1910s. And urban density was far lower as well. What's happening in China
alone is already disrupting global supply chains, and the virus has already
spread to other third world manufacturing economies like Vietnam, which shut
down all schools. In many ways this is a perfect storm.

------
mehrdadn
Anyone know if surviving with this coronavirus results in immunity to it
afterward?

~~~
DyslexicAtheist
surviving it might not be much fun either depending on the severity of the
case. survivors have a 45% risk of pulmonary fibrosis (onset within 3-6 months
after initial infection), then there is testicular damage in men, among
others, see
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22412112](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22412112)

~~~
y-c-o-m-b
> survivors have a 45% risk of pulmonary fibrosis

I'm not seeing this in the link you posted (
[https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v...](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v1)
)

A quick online search isn't yielding anything substantial on that either.

EDIT: N/M found it, but they're saying it's a possibility due to observations
found during SARS:

> Gaohong Sheng et al. [20] have shown that viral infection can increase the
> risk of pulmonary fibrosis.Xie et al. [21] found that 45% of patients showed
> signs of pulmonary fibrosis within one month after being infected with SARS-
> CoV.Hui et al. [22] found that 36% and 30% of patients infected with SARS-
> CoV developed pulmonary fibrosis at 3 and 6 months after infection,
> respectively.Therefore, we believe that pulmonary fibrosis will become one
> of the serious complications in patients with 2019-nCoV infection.How to
> prevent and reduce the occurrence of pulmonary fibrosis in patients with
> 2019-nCoV infection is an urgent problem for medical workers in the
> treatment of 2019-nCoV.

~~~
DyslexicAtheist
sorry I haven't provided better context. yepp 100% only based on what we know
from SARS.

------
ausbah
as a college student, what would be the best foods other than ramen, beans,
and rice to be stocking up on?

~~~
adventured
Not food, however buy some cheap cases of bottled water. Usually at places
like Kroger or Walmart you can find generic bottled water for ~$2.50-$3.25 for
a 24 or 32 pack case. In theory the water supply should be fine, but, clean
water is one thing you can die without fairly quickly (compared to food), and
it's very inexpensive in non-panic times. Buy two or three cases of water and
put them to the side. If everything goes fine, you can drink them regardless.
If everything goes very badly, you will be thankful to have the supplies.

------
whb07
Know what’s worse than this virus? Panic.

This shit is no deadlier than the regular flu. If you’re not 80+ or have a bad
health you’re fine.

They need to fire these officials.

~~~
notabee
Even the rate in younger people, such as those in their 20s, is higher than
flu at 0.2%. The rate for flu in the 18-49 age range averaged about 0.001%[1]

It's not just the flu. Please don't assert that without checking the numbers.

1\.
[https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/179/2/156/123327](https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/179/2/156/123327)

~~~
whb07
I'll assert that panic and fear is worse than this disease. I'll also assert
that the tens of thousands that are surmised to have the virus are largely
unreported therefore this disease is vastly overplayed.

------
claudeganon
The tens of millions of people in the US who are underinsured, lack sick
leave, or can’t afford to miss work would seem to almost guarantee a disaster
if this hits with force, no?

27% of people in the US can’t even afford a $400 emergency expense, which is
(generously) the cost of maybe one visit to verify illness or moderate
symptoms.

~~~
sky_rw
Insurance is irrelevant if there aren't enough hospital beds or medical
staff/facilities to handle a widespread pandemic. I think you're focusing on
the wrong issue, likely based on the political nature of the current
healthcare debate.

The real guarantees of a disaster are: Do businesses have enough cashflow to
handle lack of just in time inventory from China if their shelves run dry? Do
millions of people in the US have enough cashflow to handle rent payments if
jobs are shut down due to quarantine and they don't get hourly wages? Do we
have enough pharmaceuticals on hand to overcome the supply dip, given that 80%
of our drugs are manufactured in the Wuhan area? IMO health insurance rates
are the least of our problems.

~~~
heavyset_go
> _Insurance is irrelevant if there aren 't enough hospital beds or medical
> staff/facilities to handle a widespread pandemic._

It's far from irrelevant. There are millions of people for whom a visit to the
ER means bankruptcy, and should they contract the virus, they will avoid
diagnosis, continue to go to work, and silently spread the disease to those
who come in contact with them.

~~~
sky_rw
People are doing that anyway. By the time critical symptoms appear and you
need to visit the ER, you have already been infectious and spreading the
virus. Meanwhile the 80% of cases that are not critical won't drive people to
even consider the ER (which is full of sick people with Coronavirus), and they
will go about their day spreading the virus. As an example, see the rest of
the world.

