
Ask HN: Why is market so bullish in past few weeks - currio
I know predicting future of stock market is not easy and most of all predictions are wrong.<p>But I think people are (relatively) better at explaining past events when it comes to stock market.<p>Is it because market is optimistic businesses will open and business will be usual in few weeks.<p>Optimistic about arrival of vaccine<p>...
?<p>Thanks
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mattbillenstein
I don't know if it's bullish - down 30% at one point off the peak, the
quickest selloff in history, followed by an impressive run -- it's certainly
volatile right now...

I think the thing people don't understand about the market, is buying stock is
buying a right to participate in a company's future earnings and risk -- it's
_forward_ looking. Where as most economic data (jobs reports, earnings, etc)
is _backward_ looking - by the time we get that data, it's effectively already
priced-in in an efficient market.

If I'm buying right now, I'm thinking stocks are actually on sale; I get more
for my money - and I'm looking to hold for multiple years, so any one day's
news good or bad doesn't really matter to me.

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currio
Thanks.

I agree with your metrics as lagging indicators. I am still puzzled at the
growth these days after the selloff.

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maxharris
The rise in the markets has been driven by the fed/treasury stimulus actions,
and the fall in new coronavirus cases in the US and Europe. Stocks would still
be very low without the government manipulating everything.

I know this is the case because I invested my entire life savings on this one.
(I have been glued to CNBC and E*TRADE.) I decided to start buying on March
16th...

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currio
Interesting. Thanks

Stimulus would only prevent (some) companies from going bankrupt. So at best
it avoid crash. Not sure why market is optimistic though.

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maxharris
I'm optimistic on certain stocks. Allow me to illustrate using the one stock I
hold the most of (108 shares at the moment):

I believe that TSLA will ultimately end up on the very high end of where ARK
invest says they'll be: [https://ark-invest.com/wp-
content/uploads/2020/01/Tesla-pric...](https://ark-invest.com/wp-
content/uploads/2020/01/Tesla-price-target-scenarios_ARK-Invest-1536x824.png)

Tesla's Battery Day is coming in May, and that's a very big deal. I expect
they'll announce that they've hit $100/kWh (which is the point you need to be
at in order to sell an electric car with a price and range comparable to a gas
car). The fact that they have the world's best battery tech is also very
important for the future industries like eVTOL, which are completely dependent
on these things. (I have a position in EH as well...)

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currio
All the best. Hope it works out for you

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maxharris
[https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/reopened-wynn-
resorts...](https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/reopened-wynn-resorts-will-
have-thermal-cameras-masks-ceo-says-2010013/)

I hold a position in WYNN. I also think that the CEO has a realistic plan for
opening in May, and we should all get behind that.

