
Humans of Simulated New York: an exploratory comprehensive model of city life - matthiasdv
https://arxiv.org/abs/1703.05240
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thetwentyone
Even though you can't draw any meaningful conclusions from this, I think this
is a great effort. The results are weird in the sense that the results in the
scenarios don't resemble our current outcomes. A couple of comments on that:

1) Models are hard to get right. You need to find the right balance between
simplifications and reality. The results indicate something is not calibrated
or functioning the same as our current state.

2) Models are intended to be simplifications. We draw meaningful results from
very simple models (e.g. supply and demand) but without modeling the complex
interactions it's hard to say what impact could a certain policy have on the
_system_. Agent-based models are a way to do this and the computing power
available is allowing us to experiment with this.

Re: #1. We may find that modeling and seeing outcomes similar to our own is
very hard to get to. This may be due to model specification, or it could be
that given the rules that govern our own interactions and intentions, our
current state may be the one we just chanced upon.

This is a hard challenge to tackle but I'm glad that the authors have
published this and shared their code. Don't expect to have prescriptive
solutions from it anytime soon though.

~~~
neilwilson
You may also find that the theory upon which you are basing the conclusions is
completely and utterly wrong.

And by that I mean most economic theory about how to run policy.

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coldcode
Seems similar to the various Simcity designs. I wish it was available in a
form we could interact with. When designing simulations like this of real
life, among other problems the initial conditions are hard to generate since
real cities grow in historical contexts, not at some recent starting point. I
assume the initial conditions probably result in a fairly unpredictable and
chaotic end state.

~~~
vdnkh
The scifi book Blindsight has a similar concept - simulated environments for
disease testing - but instead of creating a new simulation researchers use
MMOs. Thinking about real-life examples, I wonder if a game like WoW with
history and aspects of civilization would be accurate enough to research
disease spreading.

~~~
kolinko
This article:
[https://www.google.pl/amp/s/mrepidemiology.com/2011/09/07/us...](https://www.google.pl/amp/s/mrepidemiology.com/2011/09/07/using-
video-games-to-model-real-life-outbreaks/amp/)

And an amazing podcast, "This week in virology":
[http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-7-viruses-in-video-
games/](http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-7-viruses-in-video-games/)

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urschrei
It's not completely fair to judge the quality of this paper by the first few
references (8 and 25, in particular), but it does make me extremely dubious.
It's not really appropriate to cite Ed Glaeser in an urban modelling paper (or
anywhere, really, other than as a cautionary example), and that interpretation
of Bettencourt and West won't bear much scrutiny either. I won't address
the…contributions (I work in a department that does a lot of urban modelling
and ABM – it's cited in the paper – but I'm not a modelling / ABM person
myself)

~~~
L_Rahman
@urschrei: Seconding the request for Glaeser criticism.

~~~
furtadobb
Glaeser is cited in the context of advocating for cities as a green solution
(basically, the compact city advantage). See his comemercial book 'The triumph
of the city' [https://fee.org/articles/the-triumph-of-the-city-how-our-
gre...](https://fee.org/articles/the-triumph-of-the-city-how-our-greatest-
invention-makes-us-richer-smarter-greener-healthier-and-
happier/?gclid=CjwKEAjwtbPGBRDhoLaqn6HknWsSJABR-o5sMMq72bB0CsX2TH6_PaT7scV8BTJ8W9etZbofzXq30hoCnkXw_wcB)

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danbruc
Interesting what turned out to be the best scenario.

 _The scenario with ’Low technology’ seems to be the most reasonable one with
an initial decrease in quality of life that rebounds in the later run of the
model. That seems to happen, as prices remain much lower than those observed
in the ’Average’ and ’Positive’ scenarios, although not at zero as the
’Negative’ one_

Where the scenario »Low technology« is defined as follows.

 _• a massive solar flare from the sun disables all electronic equipment

• a bioengineered super-nutritional food is available

• disease has been totally eliminated_

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JackFr
I suggest it is a near certainty that these New Yorkers are living in a
simulation.

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binaricorn
A static version of HOSNY can be explored on our website: pubsci.agency!

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coolspot
That is how it begins.

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jmcmahon443
This is breakthrough. I'm telling you, it is a game changer, and it was coded
by women -- which is also significant.

Simulation of human life combined with reality capture and BIM software are
going to change the game. So-much-so that the market price of commodities like
copper and aluminum are going to become of GLOBAL interest.

This could not have come at a better time than when scientists are freaking
out about the Great Barrier Reef being almost completely dead.

~~~
kolinko
I think you're getting downvoted because your comment sounds like rambling.

Perhaps you have some good ideas, but the form is terrible.

~~~
prawn
I assumed it was a bot incorporating unrelated keyphrases.

