
Internet TV and The Death of Cable TV, really - thiele
http://techcrunch.com/2010/10/24/internet-tv-and-the-death-of-cable-tv-really/
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jsz0
Cable isn't totally out of the loop on IP. I've seen some demos of Cisco's
IPTV solution for cable operators (vDoc) and it's a really good solution. I
would expect to see it start replacing a lot of traditional linear video
services within 3-5 years. So what will most likely happen is Comcast Cable TV
will become another IPTV video service delivered via your cable modem. This
will give the providers an opportunity to continue bundling packages in a
mostly anti-competitive way. So for example data service + Comcast IPTV is
$100/month but data service alone without Comcast IPTV is $90/month. Part of
this strategy includes data caps. Comcast IPTV won't count against your
250GB/month in the same way PacketCable voice traffic doesn't count against
your cap today. This won't kill off other IPTV solutions entirely but cable
operators are going to have a big competitive advantage.

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w1ntermute
The key caveat is buried in one sentence in the second-to-last paragraph:

> I know a lot of folks who keep cable for live sports, but cable surviving as
> a sports-only service is hard to fathom.

As long as sports are not available _live_ anywhere else, cable will continue
to rule. Because of the bundle packages people are forced to buy, they'll keep
buying everything else as well.

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chaosmachine
Here in Canada, hockey (the only sport that really matters) is broadcast live
in HD on the CBC's website. The quality is not perfect, but it gets better
every year. Our tax dollars at work. :)

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jamesteow
You can also pay the NHL directly to get a live online feed and watch multiple
games at once.

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dkokelley
Anecdotally: I never plan on subscribing to any traditional TV service (Cable,
Satellite, etc). I can watch all of my shows online, between Hulu and Netflix.
Also, I never plan on getting a traditional landline, as my cell phone coupled
with Skype and Google Voice does the job quite nicely.

The only way I will get either of the two above mentioned services is if it's
bundled inexpensively in a home data package (ie. Verizon FiOS or AT&T
Uverse), because bandwidth is all that I really want/need.

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metageek
Bandwidth is all I really want, too, but I don't have good options for it. I'm
about 15,000 feet from my CO, so the DSL I used to have was limited to
384kbps, and would flake out when it's hot. Comcast provides something like
14Mbps, and is more reliable than DSL, but still not reliable enough for me to
trust their phone service. (I have kids; if I call 911, I want to be sure I'll
get through.) I would consider getting unbundled IP from Comcast if it were
available at a reasonable price, but it isn't, so I keep paying the $13.95/mo
for my statutory minimum cable (just the stuff I could get over the air).

I sometimes get calls from Comcast, advertising their voice service. One time
I explained I needed something reliable; they told me they had 93%
reliability. And they seemed to think this was a _good_ thing.

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dkokelley
What are you using for a phone right now? I have our local sheriff's station
in my phone book, so I use that instead of 911.

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metageek
We mostly use our cellphones, but we also have the cheapest POTS plan we can
get.

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mark_l_watson
Satellite services are also feeling the heat:

I was surprised to get a call from Directv a few nights ago offering a slight
reduction in cost and 6 months of "everything free." My wife has been digging
getting all of the channels but since we are both heavy Netflix streaming
customers, we may drop Directv in a few years when all programs are available
for a reasonable fee on the Internet but we are in no hurry because Directv
does offer a great product.

Off topic but: it is really important that new entertainment business models
do not freeze out small content producers. I want more options, not fewer, and
I would hope that a pay as you watch (or with commercials) Internet option
will help small producers thrive.

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jawngee
I've been cable free for nearly a year now.

Not only do I find myself spending less time zoning out in front of the faint
glowing glory of my TV, when I do, I'm generally watching stuff that is more
... substantial? than I was before.

I get Netflix on my 360. I have a heavily modded mac mini serving up Plex
(content via RapidShare and Usenet) and Hulu. I do VOD-style on both the 360
and PS3 for newer movies. iTunes for TV show subs.

I save about $100 a month.

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jay_kyburz
Does anybody know of good articles that describe how new TV content is paid
for and how this is linked to pay TV subscriptions. Are Google, Apple and
Netflix going to have to go into the business of making new content if they
run the traditional networks out of business?

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jcromartie
Every single one of my close friends is done with broadcast/cable/satellite.

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dinkumthinkum
Yeah, right. I don't see it happening. The idea of getting rid of all cable is
very popular with this kind of crowd, as well as the "Man cannot stop telling
people he doesn't watch TV" crowd (of Onion fame) but in reality it's just not
really there yet and I'm not sure about the idea of killing off cable is
really coming any time soon.

