
Is Genocide Predictable? Researchers Say Absolutely - mhb
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2018/12/20/675582639/is-genocide-predictable-researchers-say-absolutely
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squozzer
>Interestingly, the U.S. currently ticks off many of the early stages of a
country headed for a bloodbath, according to Stanton. There's polarization,
discrimination, dehumanization. But strong legal and government institutions
in the U.S. are likely to block such a disaster from happening, he says.

Any 'Murican with a social media account would agree with the first two
sentences.

But I'm not sure about the third. It seems our strong institutions are not
impartial, and can be bent to serve strictly political purposes.

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timoth3y
You can't really have a "prediction model" that does not make predictions.

Their research into the causes and contributing factors of genocide seems very
worthwhile, but it's not prediction.

In the same way, understanding and monitoring plate tectonics is valuable and
worthwhile, but its that is something very different than earthquake
prediction.

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opwieurposiu
South Africa is headed for genocide of the Boer, it's not a big secret.

Predicting it is easy, preventing it is not.

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vibrato
That is just a right wing conspiracy /s

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crowdpleaser
Headline: Is Genocide Predictable? Researchers Say Absolutely

Article: "We're not forecasting with precision. That's not the intention of
the tool"

Forget about learning how to code, this journalist should read Eliezer and
learn how to use language to describe and articulate uncertainty.

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zzzcpan
The article sounds a bit naively clueless, like the world leaders don't know
what genocides are and what could lead to them. They are the ones who approve
covert and overt operations that start all the conflicts leading to genocides.
They definitely know how war propaganda works and how and why genocides are
made. They have no problem with mass killings to begin with and they
definitely wouldn't want some model to stop them. Selling wars and genocides
to the public is in their job descriptions.

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woodandsteel
>like the world leaders don't know what genocides are and what could lead to
them. They are the ones who approve covert and overt operations that start all
the conflicts leading to genocides.

I strongly disagree. Genocides take place in specific, generally small
countries due to specific circumstances and politics. You seem to think that
everything bad that happens in the world is due to a few evil powerful
leaders, and things in every other country would be simply wonderful if it
weren't for them. I think that is terribly mistaken.

