
What to expect from Elon Musk’s Mars colonization update this week – The Verge - rbanffy
https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/26/16360348/spacex-elon-musk-iac-mars-colonization-interplanetary-transport-system
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cstross
Just guessing here, but watch for a significant date: July 16th, 2019.

That's the 50th anniversary of the launch of Apollo 11. It's also 6-12 months
on from the projected date of Musk's translunar tourist trip on a Falcon Heavy
(which I'm willing to bet will be delayed a few months, minimum, because no
new launch vehicle _ever_ flies on time, especially a crew-rated one).

I don't expect a lunar landing in 2020. It'd require the development of a new
lunar module, space suits, and a mission profile and training in only two
years, which is almost certainly very difficult if not impossible (not only
for today's sclerotic NASA but also for SpaceX — agile management will only
get you so far). It'd also require at least two Falcon Heavy launches to put
the stack in Lunar orbit — Falcon Heavy, even in non-reusable form, has a
significantly smaller payload than Saturn V. But a circumlunar flag-waving
flight ( _sans_ lander) over the anniversary of Apollo 11 is entirely
possible, using a single Falcon Heavy and Dragon 2.

It's also a date within the term in office of Donald Trump (or Mike Pence,
depending who's in the Oval Office by then), which means there's some chance
of convincing the current POTUS that he can get to make a historic phone call
in front of the TV cameras. Trump is of an age to have young-adult memories of
Apollo and I can't see the idea _not_ appealing to him if he can find a way to
take credit for it.

