
What could individuals have done to have predicted this crisis? - topaztee
Hindsight is 20&#x2F;20. What mental models&#x2F;questions could we periodically ask ourselves to predict these kinds of crisises?
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gus_massa
Q: Will the SARS epidemy of 2002-2003 get repeated?
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome)

A: Yes

Someone said that one of the reasons that Taiwan has controlled the epidemy is
that they are preparing for SARS2 since 2002-2003. (And it is an island, that
reduce the entry points.)

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karlicoss
So, at the moment we've got a virus spreading, not even particularly vile
(which is of course not an excuse not to contain it etc.). Flu-like virues is
something people are fairly familiar with, it's impressive how we've got the
genome sequences and strains classified so fast. However, some people have
warned/predicted that would happen, you could dismiss this as a hindsight, but
still, pandemics are something people can foresee and know how to deal with.

Even more insteresting question, IMO is: how do we prepare for some event we
can't even think of?

Is there a good framework for brainstorming and thinking about potential
events threatening the whole civilization? Any low hanging fruits (in terms of
preparedness and knowledge)?

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topaztee
"how do we prepare for some event we can't even think of?" this question is
much better phrased & where my intention for this thread lies.

