
Who Will Buy Facebook? (and why TC thinks Google is a possibility) - danielha
http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/05/20/who-will-buy-facebook/
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nickb
They will IPO. TC and their false speculations are really getting old.

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rms
What if facebook got their full $6 billion price? It'd be one big buy for
Google but it's not like Google is going broke.

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aston
I don't think Google can afford a $6 billion buyout. They're on track to make
maybe $16 billion this year. Microsoft is probably the only software company
with a decent interest in the web and the pocketbook to pay for a highly
valued site. And the aQuantive buy is the biggest they've ever done (and
probably will ever do).

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far33d
This is (sort of) a misunderstanding of how most buyouts work. Google, were
they to "acquire" facebook for $6B would almost certainly structure it as a
stock-swap merger. This way the acquisition isn't a taxable event, and they
can use stock instead of cash.

At GOOG's current market cap, $6B of dilution would be pretty minimal.

Not mention the $10B of cash equivalents (and growing, fast) on their balance
sheet to buyback stock or even do a full cash deal if they were feeling crazy.

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aston
I suppose I was using "afford" somewhat loosely. I still think $6 billion
would be a huge amount for Google to drop in one place, stock or (especially)
otherwise.

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danielha
I don't think an IPO is too big of a stretch for the Facebook people.

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menloparkbum
Do all the mega-buyouts lately mean good things for new startups, or does it
mean that all the potential acquirers have already spent too much money?

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danw
I think facebook are in it for the long haul, might even do an ipo and be
almost google sized themselves

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natrius
They'll probably IPO, but there's no way they'll be Google-sized. Google is
basically a money printing machine because the dominated the most monetizable
activity on the internet: searching. People are looking for things to click on
when they search, so if an ad comes up with something that's similar to what
they're looking for, the click on it. On Facebook, people are looking for
information about other people and generally zone out the ads, which is why
they get such low clickthrough rates, as was reported a while back. That puts
it on the opposite end of the spectrum from Google. In between are media
sites, which are generally passive, but more conducive to clicking on ads than
an active site where what you're looking to do is completely different from
the ads.

They will be/are profitable and will probably IPO, but I don't think it'll be
huge. The numbers don't justify it.

Unless they have something crazy up their sleeves, which is a definite
possibility.

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nostrademons
Remember, though, that nobody thought search was monetizable when Google
dominated it. They didn't have a business model until almost 2 years in: at
the time, the fad was to turn search engines into "portals" and cash in
through banner advertising on the home page.

FaceBook also has the advantage of being locally-based: ads can be targetted
very specifically _to people within range of local businesses_. People don't
really search for restaurants within walking distance, and even if they did,
Google doesn't know where they're located. Facebook does, however, and can
display ads for local businesses that the user might not be looking for now
but might want to visit later.

