
Don’t Lose the Thread. The Economy Is Experiencing an Epic Collapse of Demand - lisper
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/06/upshot/coronavirus-economic-crisis.html
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dopylitty
I'm constantly boggled by stories about how the "economy" is doing badly. Of
course it is. As part of a reasonable response to a pandemic people have
decided (at least until recently) that venturing out and exposing themselves
and their loved ones to a deadly virus is a bad idea and have stayed inside
rather than spending. Further, many governments have (until recently) instated
reasonable restrictions on businesses to curb the spread of the disease.
Complaining that the economy is doing badly is like a family in WWII
complaining that it's dark because they've shut off all the lights due to an
air raid.

All the hand wringing about the economy indicates a great failing of our
society, that we are incapable of viewing world events through a lens other
than that of the artificial and arbitrary statistics that have come to define
"the economy".

What's important is not whether "the economy" is doing well but whether people
are able to feed themselves, whether they have shelter, and whether they are
able to protect themselves from the virus, things that the numbers that define
"the economy" are unrelated to for the most part.

Governments should focus on those things rather than propping up some
"economy" by forcing people to decide between being exposed to the virus and
being able to provide food and shelter for their families.

We certainly don't lack food or shelter, at least in the US, so we should make
sure people have those, at a minimum. Certainly there's no collapse of demand
for those and I have no doubt that they can be provided to people in need
without endangering either the producers or the consumers until the virus
subsides.

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redis_mlc
Your lofty ideals do not match the reality of living in the US.

What you think governments should focus on is not what they are doing for
individuals. A $1200 stimulus check doesn't go that far.

Most small businesses pay their owner only a salary, they cannot afford to
shut down for several months. All that deferred store rent has to paid back,
and that isn't going to happen with 1% to 10% margins.

The mortality rate for corona is 1/1000 for people under 70, which is only
double a bad flu year. I can guarantee the coming economic problems will have
a much higher cost in terms of lives, and more, than that.

We are continuing lockdown post-April because of flawed corona models with a
deliberately late start date that inflates estimates.

This is exacerbated by the Nov. elections paralyzing politicians. And Newsom
wants to be President, so his best option is to make no decision that could
cause controversy for him later.

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mgamache
For those with uninterrupted income: I wonder how much the illusion of
consumption == happiness has been upended by the shutdown. People make other
people happy not stuff, and depriving a lot of people from contact with other
humans may (for a while) refocus our attention on that. Being able to be with
other humans is the new luxury.

For unemployed: They may be too sacred to start buying stuff if they do have
income (or govt checks) in case of a second wave (or relapse of the first).

Also, there's also a whole group who realizes the economy is in free fall and
are holding their collective breath. As my father would always say, the fall
doesn't kill you, it's just the sudden stop at the bottom.

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Fjolsvith
I own a shed manufacturing company in the midwest. Our orders are up 200%
since the _start_ of the lockdown.

If the economy is in free fall, we don't see it.

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rowawey
Anecdotal. Demand on particular goods and services has shifted, but is overall
net down. And whenever there is a threat of recession, large corporations
scale back investment, jobs, purchases, and manufacturing.

~~~
Fjolsvith
Not to mention that the booming housing market is making it difficult to get
lumber, plywood and siding for my business.

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lazylizard
Um. Everyone has been told to stay home and not socialise. Is it any wonder
that there's much less economic activity?

The problem is how fast we resume? Which does smell like it'll take mass
vaccination to be completed as a pre-requisite..

