
China’s Hunger for Commodities Wanes, and Pain Spreads Among Producers - jseliger
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/10/business/international/chinas-hunger-for-commodities-wanes-and-pain-spreads-among-producers.html?smid=tw-share
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Mikeb85
China's economy is transitioning from being manufacturing-based to consumer-
based. We all knew it would happen, it's just happening quicker than most
assumed. The sky is not going to fall.

China will keep on rolling, maybe not growing by 7% each year, but certainly
by 3-4%. They've already developed at an astonishing rate, perhaps quicker
than any other large nation in world history.

I wouldn't count them out...

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wmil
> They've already developed at an astonishing rate, perhaps quicker than any
> other large nation in world history.

Although I think that says more about the incompetence of the Mao government.
China had a long history of education, commerce, technology, and relative
peace. It had no business being that poor.

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Mikeb85
Immediately prior to Mao however they had colonialism, the Opium Wars, the
Boxer rebellion, civil war, invasion by the Japanese and WWII. They were a
poor, war ravaged agrarian state. And in ~65 years the world's largest
economy.

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gbog
When China consume too many ressources she is draining the world, but if
consumption weakens she is "rattling" the world.

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catnaroek
Haters gonna hate. Given the West's history with China, they're not in a
position to preach about anything.

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seanmcdirmid
Haters gonna hate, wumaos gonna wumao. There is plenty of bias all around, but
right now I want economic news on China that isn't propaganda, what other
choices do we have?

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catnaroek
That accusation is uncalled for. I'm not a Chinese person, I've never set foot
on China, and the most contact I've ever had with Chinese people other than my
grandparents was on IRC and other online avenues of discussion, but I happen
to have, um, a little bit of historical awareness.

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seanmcdirmid
I didn't accuse you have being a wumao, I just said "haters gonna hate" like
"wumaos gonna wumao".

These are interesting times, we need the critical articles to get us through
it, not the wumao or chinadaily "all is sunshine" variety.

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SixSigma
It's incredible that planners have fallen into the cobweb [1]. For enterprises
with long lag from set-up should be aware that you are not the only one
thinking "I'll have me a bit of that" and that you'll all be on-stream
together and then there will be too much.

It was first noted in the pig breeding in 1925 [2]. Breeders saw today's
prices, bred pigs based on it and then too many pigs were all born at the same
time depressing prices, so nobody breeds and then prices go up - repeat

> Companies that took advantage of the cheap debt to increase production are
> now stuck with a big bill that will be difficult to cover.

And they will be blamed, like householders that borrowed to buy McMansions.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobweb_model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobweb_model)

[2]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pork_cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pork_cycle)

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codersbrew
You can't expect China to keep growing at double digit rates. Everyone's GDP
normalizes over time ( see Japan, South Korea etc) and China is no exception.

Add to that a debt bubble because of cheap lending. Also, weren't most
companies taking out bonds or loans to do stock buybacks to drive share prices
up.

The slowdown is going to hurt most of the developing world while the dollar
gets stronger as folks flee their markets.

