
"Doomsday Clock" moves one minute away from midnight - jacquesm
http://www.thebulletin.org/content/media-center/announcements/2010/01/14/doomsday-clock-moves-one-minute-away-midnight
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patio11
The Doomsday Clock covers _climate change_ now?

I thought the point of the PR device was to demonstrate that we're (at first
literally, then figuratively) minutes away from annihilation of the human race
if people get itchy trigger fingers.

The worst case scenarios for climate change are closer to "We're going to be
seriously inconvenienced as a species in a couple of decades if we don't do
something."

Am I allowed to call these folks unscientific alarmists? Please?

~~~
dazzawazza
I believe the reasoning is that climate change will destabilise regions
leading to world conflict.

The major destabilisation will come from resource shift, such as water
scarcity/abundance, leading to land conflict leading to major players
(US/Russia/China/Europe) posturing.

It may seem like 'serious inconvenience' but if Europe suddenly had it's gas
supply cut off by Russia and diplomacy failed do you not think they would
mobilise their army BEFORE the eastern European winter arrives? The same would
be true if water were scarce.

The dependencies between major blocks of our species are changing and climate
change will strain relations.

~~~
jacquesm
> if Europe suddenly had it's gas supply cut off by Russia and diplomacy
> failed do you not think they would mobilise their army BEFORE the eastern
> European winter arrives?

No, they would not.

If you thought that Europe would go to war with Russia over natural gas then
you're somewhat out of touch with the European sentiment on starting wars, and
on the ability of Russia to fend off invaders.

~~~
vixen99
"It's" is only ever an abbreviation for "it is'.i.e.,"its gas supply".
Otherwise articulate and smart people seem to have difficulty with this. I
can't fathom out why.

~~~
jacquesm
Thank you for correcting my ability to _quote_.

Otherwise articulate and smart people seem to have no problem in finding out
which part of a text is original and which part has been quoted.

------
TomOfTTB
The whole clock is kind of ridiculous. There's no metric to it at all. It's
just the opinion of a bunch of guys. Their whole reasoning is "a more hopeful
state of world affairs"

The fact that a Doomsday clock that was designed to warn against the problem
of nuclear weapons is being moved back mere months after Iran decided to defy
the UN and start building another uranium enrichment plant should tell you how
much of a crock this is.

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mattlong
Did anyone else first interpret this headline to mean it moved to 11:59 and
anxiously click to see which world event was more alarming than the Cold War
that somehow wasn't at the top of HN?

~~~
mootothemax
Yup, that was my exact reaction, even more disturbing after having read a
couple of newspapers this morning and wondering quite what had changed so
rapidly ;)

A bit of a personal coincidence for me as well, don't know why but for some
reason I've been reading up on nuclear events, scenarios and near-misses. It
would have almost been fitting, end of the world aside ;)

~~~
jacquesm
September 26, 1983

~~~
mootothemax
Indeed. This is one list of near-misses I read earlier on in the week:

[http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear-
weapons/...](http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear-
weapons/issues/accidents/20-mishaps-maybe-caused-nuclear-war.htm)

~~~
jacquesm
That particular one stands out for me because I think it is the 'nearest' of
all of the misses (or, as George Carlin would say, 'it's a near hit').

A lot of people owe their lives to Stanislav Petrov _not_ following his brief.

For more reading on this:

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov>

~~~
mootothemax
Terrifying stuff... and then two months later NATO pulls off operation Able
Archer:

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83>

A part of me rather likes the thought that if we're all going to perish, it's
because of someone's cock-up.

~~~
jacquesm
From the wikipedia article:

> culminating in a coordinated nuclear release

You have to love the language in there.

Pinnacle of euphemisms, kill a few million people and call it a 'coordinated
nuclear release'.

~~~
mootothemax
I saw this hypothetical nuclear war scenario linked on HN a few days ago, it
shares the same kinda language:

<http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/nuclear/nuclearwar1.html>

The UK produced a series of short TV programs to be broadcast in the event of
impending nuclear war called "Protect and Survive." Check them out on YouTube,
there's something terrifying about the calm language used.

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hubb
that's such a stupid title -- it sounds like the clock is at 11:59. it should
be 'doomsday clock more one minute further away from midnight'

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stralep
Call me in the morning...

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borism
It's easy to dismiss Doomsday Clock as alarmist or whatever.

It's much harder to devise a better index reflecting risks to mankind.

I applaud Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists for trying.

