
Coronavirus Shock Is Destroying Americans’ Retirement Dreams - dredmorbius
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-26/coronavirus-shock-is-destroying-americans-retirement-dreams
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troydavis
So far, the peak-to-trough and peak-to-current performance is typical of any
significant past recession.

That is, while the coronavirus may not have been predictable, a 30-35% equity
market drawdown at some point was not only predictable, it was guaranteed.
Statistically, it might have even been likely to have happened sooner — the
2010s was the only decade without a US recession and bear market period.

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dredmorbius
For retirement and pension planning, less frequent, larger major market shifts
make equities-based investments less, not more, suited to individual
investors.

Risks are arbitrarily imposed on substantial cohort-wide populations,
irrespective of individuals' independent planning and preparation.

The present system is a multi-generational slow-motion trainwreck.

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troydavis
> less frequent, larger major market shifts make equities-based investments
> less, not more, suited to individual investors.

My comment may not have been clear. I wasn't claiming that equities (or a
certain % of one's portfolio in equities) are or aren't suitable for
individual investors. Rather, I was stating that a 30-35% decline during one's
ownership is normal:
[https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbeartables.pdf](https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbeartables.pdf)
page 4.

Between the end of the Great Depression and now, roughly every 5-10 years
you'll see a major decline. Since 1940, I count 13 peak-to-trough drops of
-20% or more and 7 of -30% or more (including -36% in 1968 and -48% in 1973 -
this isn't a new thing).

If you want to own equities, that's what you're signing up for.

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dredmorbius
Fair enough.

But: individual ownership means assuming all periodic market-wide risk, as
well as other burdens.

A socialised net can spread those risks intergenerationally.

