
The German Amateurs Who Discovered ‘Insect Armageddon’ - sohkamyung
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/04/world/europe/krefeld-germany-insect-armageddon.html
======
giardini
This study appears to be an alarmist rehash of what was previously discussed
on HN:

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14323533](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14323533)

Here's one of the original papers:

[https://www.farmlandbirds.net/sites/default/files/Orbrioch%2...](https://www.farmlandbirds.net/sites/default/files/Orbrioch%20Nature%20reserve.pdf)

The 75% decline number appears to be from two data points from a 220-acre
plot. From that paper:

 _" What follows is a description of measured Insect-Biomasses from samples
collected in the Orbroich Bruch Nature Reserve, near Krefeld, using Malaise
Insect Traps. The results show that, in the same two areas, sampled in the
years 1989 and 2013, there was a dramatic fall in the number of flying
insects. Using the same traps, in the same areas, significant reductions of
insect populations, of more than 75%, were found. Our data confirms, that in
the areas studied, less than 25% of the original number of flying insects
collected in 1989, were still present in 2013."_

 _" The Orboicher Bruch, to the Northwest of Krefeld, is a designated Nature
Reserve of around 100 hectares (220 acres). Due to the reserve’s relatively
remote location and its rugged landscape, intensive farming came to the area
only recently."_

So alarmists are extrapolating from two data points (years 1989 and 2013) for
a 220-hectare plot of German farmland to the entire world. I think that is a
bit of a stretch, even for statistics.

Since different bugs breed in different seasons, and numbers depend on the
fruitfulness of previous generations, food supply, predation, disease,
temperature and so on, this bug weight could vary considerably from year to
year (or site to site) for any number of reasons. While one year cicadas
thrive, the next year there may be none.

BTW they're measuring the weight of dead bugs - not how many bugs or what
species of bugs - just the weight of bugs. Actually they're not even measuring
that, they're measuring the weight of dead bugs' soaked in 70-80% alcohol.

I could go on and on about controls in statistical experiments but I think you
get the idea.

See the original HN posting for discussions pointers to the earlier papers.

~~~
wazoox
This study confirms empirical observation all around. Insects are
disappearing. Birds are disappearing (populations are down 50 to 60% for many
species). Large animals are disappearing. Soils are disappearing. Fish are
disappearing. The situation _is_ quite obviously of imminent global
catastrophe, but you can harp until the end about "alarmist predictions".

~~~
gbog
Here on HN we need to back such affirmations with data. The bolder the
affirmations, the more solid the data-backed proof need to be.

If we were to exchange "philosophical" considerations here, I'd tell you that
sunday fishermen have complained weekly that there was much more fish in the
river before since the dawn of humanity. I'd also tell you that my own home in
downtown Beijing has seen a slug invasion this year, and that these animals
are not disappearing at all (at least in my courtyard).

~~~
JoeAltmaier
That's a symptom of ecological upset too. One species flourishing when another
dies off, and the resulting wild cycles. Not a good sign.

~~~
gerbilly
Here's a good article on that topic:

Planet of weeds Tallying the losses of Earth’s animals and plants By David
Quammen/Harpers Magazine

[http://courses.botany.wisc.edu/botany_422/readings/Quammen19...](http://courses.botany.wisc.edu/botany_422/readings/Quammen1998.pdf)

------
jaggederest
I think it's interesting to look at these kind of things related to the
"expected armageddons" of nuclear war, disease, gray goo, etc.

I suspect it's far more likely that, if humanity goes extinct, it's due to
some other subtle cause, rather than one of the big headliners.

Pretty terrifying thinking about all the various pesticides in use today and
wondering "Will one of these bioaccumulate and sever some critical link in an
ecosystem humanity depends on?"

~~~
arnoooooo
Climate change is a big contender (see
[http://climate.btmx.fr](http://climate.btmx.fr)).

But what's most scary is that there are multiple credible slow or fast ways
the whole of humanity is at risk, and that most are our own fault.

------
ptha
Don't worry about the insects, see the last quote: _As the scent of 82 proof
alcohol that preserves the bugs wafted, just a little, through the room, a
reporter asked if, at this rate, all the insects were going to disappear. “Oh,
don’t worry,” said Mr. Sorg, the wasp expert. “All the vertebrates will die
before that.”_

However, agreeing that we are indeed hastening the next mass extinction, might
be a good start to avoiding/postponing it.

~~~
QAPereo
The only way is population control, and how does that work outside of
nightmares and cautionary tales from history?

Great Filter here we come.

~~~
jdc0589
its really hard to have a serious conversation about population control. It's
just one of those topics that immediately label you as some kind of crazy
murdering nut-job in the eyes of lots of people.

Honestly, it may not have been super effective for certain reasons, but
China's child limit laws are about the least crazy solution I can think of.

~~~
Sir_Cmpwn
Population control probably isn't necessary. No one (informed) thinks that the
human population is going to grow out of control. It's likely to become stable
at around 10-11 billion within 100 years. Birth rates are declining in
developed countries and the undeveloped world is rapidly developing.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth)

~~~
darkmarmot
Honestly, evolution says that it won't. Long-term, breeders will "out-compete"
those that limit their household size. Without external political forces or
wholesale genetic engineering, we're in for a rough ride.

~~~
shezi
There are various examples where breeders did not outcompete, and instead a
population settled on a low birth rate. Any animal that is not predator-
dominated, really, but the best-known examples are New Zealands Kakapo [1] and
Panda bears [2].

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakapo#Breeding](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakapo#Breeding)
[2]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_panda#Reproduction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_panda#Reproduction)

------
s_m_t
I used to notice a lot more bugs when I was a kid. Until recently I thought it
was because I was closer to the ground back then :)

~~~
sogen
windshields filled with bugs

~~~
raarts
I remember my father cleaning the windshield and head lights at the gas
station to remove dead insects every time he filled up the tank. That was in
the sixties. I almost never do that.

~~~
semi-extrinsic
Has anyone considered that "no more bugs on windscreen" is an expected effect
of the vastly improved aerodynamics of cars since the 1960s? On a modern car
(anything made in the past 15-20 years), the windshield is swept such that
it's almost parallel to the airflow, so it would be very hard for bugs to hit
it.

I'm not saying whether or not there are less insects, just that this is a huge
confounding factor.

Perhaps someone who frequently takes classic cars for long trips at highway
speeds can chime in?

~~~
imeron
About 5-10 years ago you could see the difference between a German highway or
any other Eastern European highway. In my experience there was much less bug
splatter in Germany than in Hungary. It was so well known in my family that
this being a recent headliner surprised me a lot. I guess it's not that easy
to count those pesky little insects :).

~~~
mvdwoord
I actually notice a lot more bugs when I have driven a longish stretch of
Autobahn in Germany. My guess is that it is due to the higher speeds. Driving
elsewhere is 100-130 kmph, on the autobahn it regularly is 180-240 kmph.
Catches the little buggers by surprise :D

------
partycoder
We take insects for granted as they have always been there.

Sometimes science is not always about having all the answers but about
thinking in the right questions.

Even if the data is not accurate, bringing attention into this matter seems a
positive outcome.

~~~
genki
I wrote up a root comment but this is actually a better place. I agree with
this sentiment! The rest of this is additional commentary on the rest of the
discussion on this article.

I don't know why but I'm seeing a lot of anecdotes to support or dispute the
linked article. The world is much bigger than any one person's experience, and
the data indicates that overall, there are fewer insects. We may have
anecdotes that agree or disagree with that statement, but that doesn't
disprove the statement or in fact provide any useful content to the
discussion.

The real question here is 1. is this a bad sign (magic 8ball says yes) and 2.
what can we do about it (this is a deeper question that can't be easily
answered because we haven't done in-depth analysis of why these insects have
started to disappear, but the suspicion would be that large-scale agricultural
and suburban pesticide use is having a much larger and potentially disastrous
effect on the earth's ecosystem).

The discussion I'd like to see here is about the ways we can verify this study
(trust but verify), determine the source of the problem, and work torwards
eliminating that source.

------
b0rsuk
My mother is a lover of birds and she installed several nesting booths in her
garden. All but one are empty. I think it's not a problem with birds, it's
just they don't have anything to eat.

~~~
kaybe
Hm, so feeding them year-round (the right stuff of course) might be the
ethical thing to do now.

------
polskibus
There's a common anecdote among Polish drivers that drive through Europe. When
you wash the front of you car just before entering Germany from Poland, you
will have almost no bugs on the front of the car when you exit to France.

I also noticed almost no mosquitos in my several trips in the summer to and
passing through Germany.

------
singularity2001
Is there any millionaire here who can (secretly) hire a lawyer to shut the
pesticide industry down?

The destruction of whole ecosystems and causing of many diseases (even cancer
and death) is a capital a crime without any doubt. (Yes, lawyers still need to
read the proof to put them on trial).

~~~
lambdadmitry
You do realize that "pesticide industry shutting down" will cause widespread
famine, right? This attitude strikes me as incredibly privileged. Sure, the HN
community (which is definitely in global top 1% by income) may be able to cope
with x10 food prices. Too bad for the rest, it seems

~~~
singularity2001
If Monsanto kills all the insects (and some humans on its way) famine could
follow too.

