

The Promise of Prediction Markets [pdf] - Anon84
http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/jwolfers/Papers/PromiseofPredictionMarkets.pdf

======
Anon84
_Consider a contract that pays $1 if Candidate X wins the presidential
election in 2008. If the market price of an X contract is currently 53 cents,
an interpretation is that the market “believes” X has a 53% chance of
winning._

Some how this seems a bit too linear...

~~~
rw
"linear"? What do you mean?

