

What You Really Need Is A Market, Not An Idea - route3
http://www.pfinn.net/markets-not-ideas-for-bootstrappers-founders.html

======
callmeed
This post appears to simply restate what it attempts to argue against (niche
ideas and the previous brainstorming post).

Niches _are_ markets. Dog walkers probably could use some kind of SaaS app.
Restaurants _desperately_ need better websites. And if you have a passion or
(especially) deep knowledge of those industries/markets/niches, there's
nothing wrong with experimenting with ideas.

No one is arguing against doing market research–in fact, multiple people
stated that as the first step in the HN post mentioned. And I doubt the OP on
that thread was saying "make some ideas up out of the blue with no basis in
industry knowledge". C'mon.

[1] <http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4917661>

~~~
hodder
I was the OP from the other thread. callmeed understands what my intent was
with the other post. Sadly, I either wrote up the post poorly, or the method
of asking outright on forums is a bad idea.

Coming from a business background, I just assumed that any idea people would
put out there would have been small solutions to small problems... not "sitcom
startups", products with no market, or funny stabs at combining nouns with an
airbnbnb business model. Perhaps I was wrong. Really the only thing I was
looking for were problems that could potentially be solved with minimal
capital, and only 1 or 2 people.

Maybe looking for small problems, solutions, and actionable ideas can't be
done on internet forums... It didn't seem too unthinkable for me to imagine
someone like Patrick responding to my initial post with something like this:

"You know what? Some teachers have approached me to build a Bingo Card
Creator, and are willing to pay for it. I may be able to introduce you to
them. Personally, I have zero interest in pursuing this, but maybe you do.
Obviously, you will want to do your own market research, but you likely have
at least a few sales. The market is niche, and I am pursuing something a
little bigger that interests me more, but it could be worth a look for you. A
sweet bonus is that this can probably be executed by a single person."

Interestingly, Paul himself seems to have started a company that might be
earning him money and could have originated in that thread.

I was looking for ideas like Posters for verticals. Maybe Paul didn't want to
start doing posters for microbreweries, but knew that people wanted them. Is
any sharing of small business ideas completely useless?

Yes he went on to validate the idea, knowing that spending half a year
building an app or product and trying to market it prior to validation isn't
very intelligent, but I thought that was implied.

~~~
callmeed
I'm glad you posted this for clarification, but I thought your original thread
was fairly clear (hopefully my reply there made sense too).

FWIW, I don't think it was wrong to post that question here. You just never
know what kind of response questions like that will get.

Also, I apologize for not adding more ideas (been traveling). Drop me an email
and I can share more.

------
duopixel
I think the article oversees an important factor in startup success: the needs
of the market is a vast land, and surely there is an intersection with a
passion yours.

I can't envision the founder of Bang & Olufsen being indifferent to sound
quality, or the founder of Herman Miller being indifferent to office
furniture. I chose these companies deliberately because I don't know their
founders, but I'm sure they were passionate about their field.

I can't fathom building a company for a market that might be lucrative, but is
meaningless to me. I'd rather build 10 failed companies than create a
profitable CRM for telemarketers.

~~~
hayksaakian
> I can't fathom building a company for a market that might be lucrative, but
> is meaningless to me. I'd rather build 10 failed companies than create a
> profitable CRM for telemarketers.

That's a luxury not many people have. Many can't afford 10 failures on top of
a family to feed or other debt and obligations.

~~~
te_chris
But they CAN get jobs (well, in theory, prevailing market conditions aside).
Not everyone is supposed to be an entrepreneur, but those that try gain
valuable skills they can apply elsewhere, even if it doesn't work out.

------
corford
An idea without a market is largely useless (from an income generating
perspective at least). But as a single founder currently slugging through the
mountain of work needed to get something off the ground, I know I couldn't do
it if my heart wasn't in it and I had no passion for what I'm working on other
than plugging a hole in a randomly identified market.

Despite having an entrepreneurial streak and coming from an entrepreneurial
family, I was 29 before I finally decided to quit my job and pursue the idea
I'm now working on. A big reason it took so long was because I was only
willing to risk everything on an idea that I believed in AND had a
demonstrated market. Having one or the other wasn't enough.

It isn't all roses though. Even if you think you've got a good idea and a
valid market for it, it's still all for nothing if you can't get in front of
and retain a critical mass of customers. That's the piece of the puzzle I'll
shortly be faced with and I'm not relishing it.

~~~
zanny
Delicious networking and marketing!

------
babuskov
Riiiight... Mark Zuckerberg researched the worldwide market before starting
Facebook. Kevin Rose researched the market before starting Digg. And all the
other successful entrepreneurs are known for this.

"Research the market" approach is good if you want to build a regular
bootstrapped business. If you're building a startup, you should actually build
an MVP and "Test the market".

Please don't get me wrong, but I still believe that building a couple of duds
and failing is the better way to go. If you're building something truly
innovative and disruptive, most people you ask during "research" won't even
know that they need it.

~~~
codewright
Facebook hasn't really gotten its (profit) legs yet, and Kevin Rose (Digg for
that matter) is about the worst possible example you could've chosen.

Kevin Rose is the horse of choice for the Riders of the Startupocalypse
proclaiming the end is near.

I'd say there is an argument to be made in both directions. Clearly there are
a lot of startups that didn't arise from market analysis, but there's also a
lot to be said for not panhandling for VC money without understanding your
addressable market.

I'd rather not see those arguments unintentionally strawmanned by somebody who
is apparently unaware of the current state of Facebook's stock or what exactly
became of Digg and why. Or how Rose is widely reviled for throwing his
engineers under the bus for what were ultimately product decisions made high
up.

~~~
novaleaf
i don't think your counter-argument stands very well: trying to argue that
facebook is somehow not successful seems just silly.

------
Tyrant505
"It's really hard to design products by focus groups. A lot of times, people
don't know what they want until you show it to them" - Jobs

~~~
Too
_"If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster
horses."_ \- Henry Ford

~~~
icebraining
Still, faster horses is a useful requirement. Sure, you have to abstract away
the technology, but the need is there.

------
urlwolf
This post is gold. And agrees with Amy Hoy, Rob Wailing, Dane Maxwell, and
many others who have been writing about boostrapping for a while.

If you dedicate 70% of the time to find the market and isolate the pain point,
risk decreases hyperbolically :)

~~~
hasenj
Could you link to these people's blogs? Would make your comment so much more
useful.

~~~
gacba
Amy Hoy: <http://unicornfree.com/>

Rob Walling: <http://softwarebyrob.com/>

Dane Maxwell: <http://thefoundation.io/blog/>

------
hodder
I was the person who started the link referenced in the article, "Can we
brainstorm a list of sites like bingo card creator", and admittedly the post
was either a poor idea, or at the very least poorly phrased.

Coming from a business background, I just assumed that any idea people would
put out there would have been small solutions to small problems... not "sitcom
startups". I guess I was wrong. Really the only thing I was looking for were
problems that could potentially be solved with minimal capital, and only 1 or
2 people. I wasn't looking to bypass market validation, or solving poeple's
problems.

So, going back to the underlying question of starting businesses, how do you
go about finding a market, finding problems, finding solutions to those
problems, and finding paying customers? Preferably all without wasting a ton
of time or money?

I hope Patrick replies to this thread and walks us through his process. Did
Patrick start with the teachers market because he knew some teachers? Did he
ask them what problems they had? Did they complain to him that were dying to
play classroom bingo, that the existing solutions are terrible, and that they
would pay him if he provided a solution?

I know some people involved in trades, some in education, finance, and
consulting. Several of these people are either the business owners themselves,
or have the authority to pay for software solutions to their problems. These
are primarily offline markets. How do you suggest going from here, to paying
customers? Asking them outright what problems they have? What problems they
have that software might provide a solution? What problems they have with
current software solutions they use?

~~~
MDS100
He had some on a mailing list for his Company IIRC. He solved this for some
teacher on the list and 60+ showed demand for it. It's in his podcasts or on
his sites.

Ask them for problems/pain points and let them talk and you figure out how
software can help.

------
gelizondo
Well said.

I think that a lot of entrepreneurs also completely miss the concept of loss
aversion. No matter how much pain your potential idea may be solving, some
people are simply in love with their current shitty situation.

------
jere
Paul, did you apply this to Hoppy Press? Just curious what the market is for
hand made beer art.

~~~
yolesaber
Does Hoppy Press just make posters? It would be cool if they also expanded
into making labels / promotional materials for small brewers as well. I dabble
in homebrewing and it is non-trivial for me to get quality labels for my
batches.

~~~
route3
Yes, just posters. We've been asked about expanding in to labels before but
we're happy sticking to screen prints for now (currently it's successful
enough to make it worthwhile and it's a fun side business, but no plans to
take it further).

You aren't alone though, the need for label/promo materials has been mentioned
a few times over in the homebrewing subreddit.

~~~
yolesaber
Perhaps I ought to talk to some of them. Sounds like there is a niche to fill!

------
mthoms
This belongs on "the best of HN" (if such a thing exists) and should be
required reading for any aspiring startup founder.

In the online startup community very little space seems to be devoted to
methods and tips for researching markets. Perhaps this is an opportunity
itself? Someone should research this niche and then start an on online
information resource if the demand is there.

(edit: yes, I realize how meta this is)

~~~
pukka_my
It may not be as widespread in the 'online startup community', but user-
centricity is at the heart of design. (full transparency: I'm a user
researcher/strategist who typically does this kind of work for more
traditional CPG/service companies and at uxhours.com)

------
keithpeter
" _Be prepared to adjust the binoculars as go -- you may discover a market
existing where you didn't know one existed. Like teachers needing bingo
cards._ "

Why do teachers need bingo cards? Because they need easy ways of making
_interactive_ and _attractive_ games and puzzles for their students. And they
will pay for stuff, but not _huge_ amounts. You might get a monthly fee for a
Web based authoring system if the figure is low. We have to be careful about
putting students on Web sites, so probably _not_ a fully Web based membership
system.

Plenty of room there, UK has around 600,000 teachers, US must be 5 times that.
Similar for Europe and other continents.

~~~
MaxGabriel
It was a reference to Bingo Card Creator, patio11's company.

~~~
keithpeter
Yes, I know, and I thought it might be useful to state a few obvious reasons
why some game software might be useful to teachers!

------
sgdesign
This is a great article, and definitely something I could recommend to a lot
of people.

But what about passion? Identifying a market is one thing, but should you go
after it if you don't have any interest for that particular domain? I know
that's what Patrick did with BingoCardCreator, but I personally don't think I
would be capable of that.

Of course market research is primordial, but I still think there's something
to be said for following your passion and building something really cool. You
might not make as much money, but on the other hand maybe you'll enjoy the
process more.

------
Matt_Mickiewicz
Great read, if you pick the right market, it's easy to become profitable very,
very quickly.

In our case, we picked "Developer Recruiting in SF" as our initial market
after years of personal experience dealing with incompetent recruiters,
expensive job board ads that didn't produce results and talking to hundreds of
founders/CEOs/CTOs who where all complaining about the same thing.

------
rsobers
I feel like this has been said a billion times. (Isn't this what Steve Blank's
customer development methodology is all about?) I do realize, though, that now
matter how many times we say it, people fall into the trap of thinking their
idea is enough.

In very rare cases where there is no market yet, ideas do matter (e.g., the
automobile).

------
mbesto
The Pmarca Guide to Startups, part 4: The only thing that matters
[http://web.archive.org/web/20070701074943/http://blog.pmarca...](http://web.archive.org/web/20070701074943/http://blog.pmarca.com/2007/06/the-
pmarca-gu-2.html)

------
armenarmen
having built stuff (that failed) based on "a good idea" I can not agree more
with the post

~~~
donebizkit
seconded! story of my life

------
IceCreamYou
Marc Andreessen nailed this point years ago:

[https://pmarca-archive.posterous.com/the-pmarca-guide-to-
sta...](https://pmarca-archive.posterous.com/the-pmarca-guide-to-startups-
part-4-the-only)

------
zeynalov
Similar discussion about ideas - <http://www.vusal.me/essays/ideas/>

------
ahoyhere
Nice to see another one of my 30x500 alumni rocking the HN charts. With great,
solid advice. Congrats, Paul. Great post.

------
eriksank
I am involved in a bunch of smaller things, each with different people that I
met along the way of doing other things -- serendipitiously -- and I never
felt the need to drop everything to do a big, risky startup around a "great
idea" or a "great niche market". None of the smaller things I do, actually has
a full-time person working on it. That's the beauty of websites. They are
always there, but there is no need to attend to them on a full-time basis.
It's all running on solar power and wind energy ;-) I may do something bigger
one day or another, but I don't see the pressing need to actually make that
happen. It will only happen by serendipity.

------
aaroncray
What you really need is a new category not a market.

