
Dissolving the Fermi Paradox (2018) - jtolds
https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404
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jtolds
My summary: the Drake equation takes a bunch of scenarios and multiplies their
expected values/average probabilities. But this is a bad way to combine
distributions that are not normally distributed (and may look more like
bathtub curves)! It turns out, if you combine these potential scenario
probability distributions in a smart way, an improved "Drake" equation
predicts a much stronger likelihood that we'd see no life anywhere.

So there's no Fermi paradox, no Great Filter, no nothing. It's reasonable
we're alone.

