
Study finds putting people in prison increases re-offence rate vs. probation - arikr
http://www.dailycal.org/2017/10/05/uc-berkeley-professor-co-authors-study-saying-people-sentenced-prison-likely-return/
======
prisonthrowaway
Throwaway because I want to put my past behind me.

I've been to prison. Convicted of assault when I turned 18 years old. At 20, I
was released and the system provided no re-integration efforts for me. In Feb
2003, I was homeless, no family, and I lost all my friends.

I applied for over 100 jobs while sleeping in the back of an abandoned car
with no luck.

Finally I lied to get employment at a local McDonald's. Then I begged a
literally insane person to let me sleep on her couch until I received enough
money to get a place of my own. I had to pay her in sperm donations (as she
wanted a child).

I had to steal food to eat in those first few months.

On top of that, I had $18,000 in restitution and 10 years of probation. If I
missed payments, I'd go back to prison.

Fast forward 10 years, I put myself through college, paid off the restitution
in full, got off probation 5 years early, moved the hell away from my home
town, and built a million dollar company.

I got curious a few years ago and looked up all my fellow inmates. 100% of
them were back in prison.

When I think of how lucky I am to have escaped that life, I have no words...

~~~
padobson
Wow, what an awesome story. I don't think you should be ashamed of it - really
inspiring.

Being a company owner, would you be more or less likely to hire folks with a
criminal record based on your experience?

~~~
prisonthrowaway
I wrote a book describing my experience in detail and how I overcame
particulars, but every time I think about publishing, I back down. The last
few years, I'm finally rid of that "black spot" over my head that I'm not
ready to bring it back quite yet. Not to mention, I need to focus on running
my company at the moment.

I never ask if a person has been arrested/convicted of a felony during the
hiring process. People can do great work regardless if they're black, white,
male, female, immigrant, or felon.

~~~
warent
Your story isn't just an inspiration, but it's also what the world needs.

I've never been to prison, but I have been homeless for months; battled
addiction; jailed for minor offense; still haven't achieved a higher
education. Still though, now I'm an engineer at Google.

What we can find is that being ashamed of our past is a very limited way of
thinking. There are millions of people out there who can benefit from our
struggle. People in better situations and worse situations. The more we share
our stories, it helps society as a whole.

And, really, that's what this is all about, isn't it?

Would love to read your book, and would definitely endorse it. Hell, I'd would
be interested talking more sometime as well. Add me to your mailing list if
you have one! Email: hello@wyatt.engineer

~~~
prisonthrowaway
Congrats on making it out as well.

I wrote the book thinking about the people I could be helping, but I don't
publish it because I finally feel "free." I'm not sure if it's an irrational
fear, or something I need therapy for, but the idea of going back to how I
felt is something that I'm not ready for right now.

Quick story for emphasis:

In 2011, just as my company was off the ground, I found out I had a warrant
for my arrest. When you're on probation and you are convicted of another
crime, you serve length of probation + new crime. In my case even though I was
not on active probation, my unsupervised probation cited that I would serve 10
years plus new crime.

The people who know me today would describe me as very stable and light-
hearted/funny. When I got that warrant notice, I had a complete meltdown. I
left work, physically ran to my apartment, and locked myself away. I was
informed on a Friday, so my attorney couldn't get back to me until Monday with
all the information as to why I was being warranted.

The reason? It turns out the State that I moved away from had lost all the
records of me paying my restitution.

Lucky for me, I'd been carrying those receipts around for nearly 10 years at
that point. I photocopied every single one of them and a week later, the
warrant was revoked.

I lived in chaos after prison for years, and in fear for more than 10 years. I
just need a bit more time to heal up before I'm ready.

I'm away from SF (where I typically live) for a few more months, but I'll
reach out when I'm back.

~~~
warent
I'm glad you had those receipts.

Looking forward to your contact :)

------
tyfon
Here is a presentation[1] of one of the maximum security prisons in Norway. If
you treat people better you will have lower rates of reincarceration[2]. In
essence, they are trying to create "good neighbors" out of the prisoners.

And we are certainly not a homogeneous society that many use as an argument
that this would not work elsewhere.

In my city, Drammen, a bit outside of Oslo, about 1/3 of the population are
not native Norwegians and there are over 100 nationalities here. My daughters
school has over 30 nationalities. (And I don't think this is a bad thing)

[1][https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pB037gVIpJc](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pB037gVIpJc)

[2][http://www.businessinsider.com/why-norways-prison-system-
is-...](http://www.businessinsider.com/why-norways-prison-system-is-so-
successful-2014-12?r=US&IR=T&IR=T)

~~~
rayiner
86% of Norway is ethnically Norwegian. Then there are the folks from Sweden,
etc. Suffice it to say Norway is highly homogenous.

~~~
wongarsu
73% of the US is ethnically European, Germany is 81% ethnic Germans, France is
89% ethnic French (and another 5% from their colonies).

Yes, Norway is fairly homogeneous. But most countries are fairly homogeneous,
Norway doesn't really stand out.

~~~
rayiner
The US is 61% non-Hispanic white, which is not a single ethnicity but a
grouping that includes everything from Irish to North Africans. And of course
there is a long history of race-based conflict between those groups (e.g. see
the local politics in Chicago or NYC).

~~~
dragonwriter
> The US is 61% non-Hispanic white, which is not a single ethnicity

The idea that "non-Hispanic white american" is not a distinct ethnic identity
(usually just "White American" or even "American", with Hispanics viewed as
non-White , actual ancestry aside, outside of bureaucratic systems and foreign
in ethnicity) despite recognition of distinct _national_ origin, is somewhat
dubious. Its true that some of those national origins _historically_ were
viewed more as distinct ethnicities and even treated as just as non-"White
American" as Blacks (or, perhaps more germane to the point, White Hispanics)
are now, but while the national identities persist, that treatment has largely
changed. I mean, sure there is a time when _by virtue of his mere name_ Bill
O'Reilly would be a reviled enemy of the nativist defenders of White American
identity, rather than in a position to be an icon of nativism. But that time
is long past.

------
zelos
But the decision between probation or a custodial sentence is based partly on
the attitude, risk profile and situation of the offender. Surely that's going
to skew the statistics?

~~~
jackvalentine
I hope that was controlled for somehow. I’m on mobile and can’t pinpoint the
paper itself to read and find out -
[http://scholar.google.com/citations?user=t5XxEi8AAAAJ&hl=en](http://scholar.google.com/citations?user=t5XxEi8AAAAJ&hl=en)

~~~
zelos
My knowledge of statistics is negligible, but is it possible to measure a
system and control for the same factors that the system itself is trying to
control for?

~~~
omginternets
>is it possible to measure a system and control for the same factors that the
system itself is trying to control for?

It's hard to have a meaningful discussion of these issues in the abstract, but
the short answer is:

    
    
        1) it depends
        2) bias correction is not a trivial matter
    

Firstly, you have to have some sort of quantitative estimate of the bias. This
is not always possible, and even in cases where it is, said estimate may be
noisy or, itself, biased.

Bias correction is useful and often legitimate, but its use should always be
interpreted as weakening the epistemological rigor of the analysis. In lay
terms: bias correction should be consumed with a grain of salt.

General entry point into the subject matter:
[https://stats.stackexchange.com/q/31253/17054](https://stats.stackexchange.com/q/31253/17054)

------
b0rsuk
The bad part of jail system is that law-breakers are put in contact with other
law-breakers. It's no secret environment infuences people and people learn by
example.

This post is inspired by Finnish education system. I read an article which
mentioned a bad behaving class, which was merged with a good behaving one.
Their behavior improved, because they were suddenly under good influence and
bad behavior was no longer universally tolerated.

What I'm trying to say is perhaps law-breakers should be inserted into some
MODEL society, some kind of modern utopia/forced labor camp where people are
treated nice and work is hard but satisfying. And not a place where everything
they get is for free.

Do you know any examples where something like this took place ?

~~~
codesnik
we need new Australia! but on Mars.

~~~
b0rsuk
Ahh, Australia, the continent where going to toilet at night requires checking
your shoes and looking under toilet seat. Where even silly looking platypus is
venomous.

------
program_whiz
Seems like the study is confusing cause/effect. Those on probation are
probably less likely to commit another crime partly because the crime they did
commit was a first offense, less serious/violent, etc. -- otherwise they
probably would not have been paroled (e.g. you're more likely to go to prison
if you killed someone than if you got caught with a small quantity of illegal
drugs).

Similarly, the article talks about how "education reduces recidivism by 50%".
However, this is a self-selecting group of prisoners who decide to go to
school/college, and so they are less likely to commit future crimes. I doubt
those kind of numbers would hold if you forced all inmates to gain education.
Since HS education is free, and most people now can get a loan for college and
go somewhere (at least as good as prison college), almost all of these people
who didn't get the education "on the outside" decided not to pursue it. So
logically, those prisoners joining these classes voluntarily are mostly
prisoners who realize they need to change and already see education as a "way
out" \-- so its not really a cause/effect but a correlation.

Edit: Clarity of last sentences

~~~
gipp
> Seems like the study is confusing cause/effect.

The article provides literally no context on which to base that judgment. The
study could most certainly have been designed to (at least attempt to)
disambiguate all of the issues you're talking about here. Everything you've
mentioned is experimental design 101, these are routine things to take into
account.

Of course, since the study
([http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/09/26/1701544114.abst...](http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/09/26/1701544114.abstract))
is PNAS and not open-access, I also have no context to make any conclusions.

~~~
thanatosmin
Quickly reading through the study, they stratify prisoners by severity of
crime, claiming this is a natural experiment because the only remaining
variation is in the judge selected. Not an expert in sentencing but I thought
extenuating circumstances can be considered which wouldn't be corrected for
here.

------
jaclaz
Am I missing something?

The leading picture is about California prisoners, the study is on Michigan
ones (BTW between 2003 and 2006), and most considerations are about US in
general.

Besides obvious differences in demographics and possibly "types of crimes",
AFAIK in Michigan there is no "three strike Law":

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-
strikes_law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-strikes_law)

(while there is, and it is seemingly enforced very aggressively, counting even
what other states/coutries would define minor offences) in California.

------
olavolav
Dear HN audience. For almost all of the topics discussed here, if you haven't
already, please go read this book:

Michel Foucault, Discipline and Punish: The Birth of the Prison [1]

The seminal book on questions like: Where do prisons come from? Why did anyone
ever think that they were a good idea? Do they work?

Highly recommended

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discipline_and_Punish](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discipline_and_Punish)

~~~
Double_a_92
People that did bad things are not running around freely anymore... It's not
rocket science ._.

~~~
olavolav
Well, I think the OP should give you the idea that if your goal is (for
example) to reduce violent crime rates overall, then the answer might be more
complicated than that...

------
imroot
The problem with prison in the US is that we, as a country, really don't have
a way to separate the difference between those who we're truly afraid of as a
society versus those who we are just upset with.

------
rutierut
Wow what a miracle who could have seen this coming -_-. It is an absolute
mistery to me how a county this big still runs a prison system that is so
obviously dysfunctional.

~~~
rurban
It's a misery, but it's very functional for them:

1\. cut democratic voters by half. Blacks used to vote democratic. Once in a
prison you cannot vote anymore. 50% of all young black men in the working age
once were in prison. Mostly due to selective targeting and drugs policies.

2\. prison for profit. It's modern slavery, free workforce. Together with the
colluding justice system a perfect slavery system.

------
indubitable
Studies like this are frustrating. The conclusion confirms my own biases, so I
want to respect the study - but there are, invariably, issues that make it
difficult to take their conclusions at face value. Put another way, it's
entirely possible somebody looking at the data a different way could present
an entirely incompatible conclusion.

For instance an issue this study faced was that it's difficult to control for
the fact that extenuating circumstances and other factors help determine the
sentencing for individuals. A judge, presumably, will make some effort to
attempt to sentence individuals who are less likely to reoffend to probation
rather than prison, and vice versa. The study argued that the random
assignment of judges to cases, each of whom has their own sentencing
tendencies, works as a control here but I think that is less than compelling.
A judge may be more or less lenient on average, but that does not change the
fact that all judges are going to be aiming to achieve the same thing. You're
not comparing apples to apples.

It seems the only solution would be genuine random sentencing in a controlled
experiment, but there are obviously certain ethical issues there. It's
unfortunate since our system is completely broken. You create environments
where individuals are treated like dehumanized animals and pushed towards
greater degrees of sociopathy with no meaningful effort made towards
rehabilitation. And suddenly after being in this situation for years, they're
supposed to come out better than ever ready to integrate and become a
productive member of society? Obviously the idea is that fear of being put in
that circumstance is supposed to be a deterrent. But given an overall
recidivism rate now of 76.6% [1] over 5 years, it should be self evident that
this idea is quite obviously not working.

[1] -
[https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=4986](https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=4986)

------
VikingCoder
I saw someone suggest on Reddit, "What if after someone is released from
prison, we paid the prison a bonus every year they go without being convicted
of a crime?"

Seemed super smart to me. Incentivise the right behavior.

~~~
vidarh
Until some prison warden decides to cripple as many prisoners as possible to
ensure they can't reoffend.

~~~
VikingCoder
That would be illegal. And they should be punished to the fullest extent of
the law.

------
spoiledtechie
Or, maybe just the harder criminals are always going to reoffend. Vs the
probation criminals did something, which they learn from. Because they are the
softer criminals.

------
Evolved
This is only partially related to the article but I still feel it is relevant
and I'd like to know if anyone has data to support either side on this. Summed
up, it explains that asocial violence or antisocial aggression in general are
directly correlated with warmer climates.

[http://www.bbc.com/news/science-
environment-23538771](http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-23538771)

------
lightedman
You honestly can't expect much more from a state whose top attorney says "We
need all this free slav^W^W prison labor to keep our state going!"

------
reubeniv
Tricky, because I would also think it's almost impossible to factor in the
likelihood of deterring a first offence either might have

------
jlebrech
some people deserve their full sentences and not probation, but instead they
are locked up and released early and recidivise.

~~~
gerbilly
> deserve

I don't think anybody is qualified to know what people 'deserve.'

------
arikr
Highly recommended for anyone who liked this article:
[https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/impact-
incarceration-c...](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/impact-
incarceration-crime)

------
whiddershins
It seems nearly impossible to do this study ethically and also remove all
confounding variables. The best way I could think of would be to compare the
results of sentences given by different judges or jurisdictions who have
different tendencies to imprison for the same exact offense.

The problem is that there’s not really any such thing as “the same offense.”

If you talk directly to people who work in law enforcement they indicate
sentencing is much less about the precise crime and much more about whether
all involved perceive the offender as a “bad guy.”

If the people involved (da, police, judge, jury) are in any way accurate in
that assessment, it will stand to reason a person incarcerated will be more
likely to reoffend. That’s what everyone was perceiving which is why they
incarcerated the person in the first place.

------
JulianMorrison
Prison was always about revenge. And slavery. Nasty, childish thing.

~~~
tyfon
Now, this is what has always baffled me about the US. I will try to condense
this a bit.

The US is primarily a christian country supposedly founded on christian values
etc.

I am an atheist, and a nihilist in that I do not think there is an inherent
moral in the universe. However, that means that life is a chance happening.
There is probably life elsewhere in the universe but it is rare as far as we
know. This means each life is inherently special and we should strive to
enable each and everyone to reach their maximum potential and explore this
great opportunity we have. This means adopting a humanistic approach to life
(and in my case, life as in all life not just humans).

Back to the US. I have read the bible and I have taken many lessons from it
even though I am not religious. Jesus was one of the first real humanists and
have many great things to say.

Do no kill.

Do to others as you want them to do to you.

Turn the other cheek.

Forgive..

This is the essence of christianity.

They make sense to me even if I am not religious. Many of his guidelines would
improve everyones life. But in the US you are so hell bent on revenge that the
words fall on death ears. I know I am generalising here and this is not the
case for every American. But as you say, prisons were always about revenge.

Is there any explanation for this paradox?

~~~
psyc
The Christian standard of appropriate punishment for even the smallest
transgression is burning in a fire for eternity.

~~~
tyfon
I can't believe I am actually defending christianity here, but yes this is
true. I am not religious and have just taken the humanistic parts of Jesus to
heart not the religious parts.

However even in christianity it is god who will exact this punishment, not the
people. He sais men is not to judge each other. I can't get this to fit with
the revenge mentality either.

For the record, the hell part is, in my opinion, one of the most glaring
inconsistencies in the religion. God loves all.. but you will still burn in
hell for eternity if you do not accept him/her/it blindly. I find that very
sadistic and cruel.

~~~
joshuahedlund
I feel it's worth noting that the doctrine of annihiliationism asserts that
non-believers will simply be consumed by hell and cease to exist, with
proponents asserting that the doctrine of eternal conscious torment is a mis-
reading of the original text influenced by Western/Platonic notions of the
immortal soul.

~~~
tyfon
This is actually what I think will happen when I die, I will cease to exist.
It is much better than being told that I will be tortured in hell forever :)

------
dovdovdov
just as intended, this is business, not some societal good doing.

~~~
wu-ikkyu
Despite the down votes, you are correct. Jon Oliver did a bit a while back
about for profit prisons, which revealed how "high recidivism rates" were part
of the investor sales pitch.

------
jasonmaydie
Study finds not putting people in prison increases crime rate

