
Fracking’s Secret Problem–Oil Wells Aren’t Producing as Much as Forecast - throwaway5752
https://www.wsj.com/articles/frackings-secret-problemoil-wells-arent-producing-as-much-as-forecast-11546450162
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throwaway5752
_“I certainly expect many of today’s estimates will turn out to have been
pretty optimistic,” said Francis O’Sullivan, director of research for the MIT
Energy Initiative, which has examined shale forecasting. He said the complex
geology of shale basins and assumptions based on a small number of wells could
make forecasts unreliable. “There is profound variability in the performance
of these wells,” he said.

Schlumberger Ltd. , the oil-field-services giant, reported in a research paper
that secondary shale wells completed near older, initial wells in West Texas
have been as much as 30% less productive than the initial ones. The problem
threatens to upend growth projections for America’s hottest oil field, the
company said in October._

To see the full article, google for "Fracking’s Secret Problem" and the
referrer header should let you read it.

It could be incredibly disruptive to US and global energy prices if shale e&p
projects are such that multiple current companies are not economical (lower
recovery rates, and incrementally worse production at tighter well spacings)

