
Germans in the race to bring electric cars to market - Tomte
https://global.handelsblatt.com/our-magazine/the-germans-are-coming-for-tesla-motors-624915?ref=MzQ4NDA1&utm_source=outbrain&utm_medium=contentmarketing&utm_campaign=outbrain-retfeb17-longlast&utm_content=The%20Germans%20Are%20Coming%20for%20Tesla%20Motors&utm_term=00c8e13c1b4dbd08a35b361af495798fcf
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geff82
This year marks the 20th anniversary of the Toyota Prius. Yet, German
manufacturers have no competing product to offer: cars with electric
components are those at the high end of the price list, totally overpriced.
And when you ask the salespeople, they will tell you in all honesty to better
NOT take that hybrid because of the questionably quality. Cars like the
Renault ZOE, Kia Niro, Hyundai Ioniq and a lot of other types show that you
can make a hybrid/electric car at reasonable prices and good reliability. The
German manufacturers seem to have nothing learned from it yet. This summer,
the new fully-electric Smart comes out. Range: 120km. Who needs that shit?
They say "most people don't drive more than that to work every day". What a
bad excuse! They had that 5 years ago. Yet people love their Teslas because
they don't have to think about charging every few kilometers. Buy a regular
Golf: 17.000€. Buy a plugin-hybrid Golf (one of the very few German
offerings): 35.000€. Clearly a sign they try to ride a dead horse. Invest now
- live off the scaling effects tomorrow! Something that seems unthinkable in a
traditional shareholder-value driven industry like the German car industry,
that prides themselves to be at the forefront of technology, yet don't want to
stop depending on 130 year old technology. Do you know what Mercedes began to
offer in the year the Renault ZOE came out? They were proud on their brand new
Mercedes G AMG65 with 12 cylinders. A 32 year old car that (almost) no one
needs nowadays.

Look at the (German) Audi website. They have their G-Tron initiative. Looks
quite impressive, next to their E-Tron stuff. G-Tron is CNG gas... they are
just using the old engines further, branding them as "green" somehow.

~~~
finchisko
Nothing can express, their aversion against innovation as Fiat CEO statement:
"Please don't buy Fiat 500e electric car".

They only made Fiat 500 electric to fulfill regulation requirements, so they
can sells more of 130 years tech, which is cheaper then investing into new
clean tech . Only Tesla's success, made them finally innovate. I personally
consider this attitude arrogant and would never buy product from such a
company.

[http://www.reuters.com/article/chrsyelr-ceo-evs-
idUSL1N0O71M...](http://www.reuters.com/article/chrsyelr-ceo-evs-
idUSL1N0O71MS20140521)

~~~
simo7
If you look at the history of Fiat/Chrysler in the last years is a history of
resurgence from troubled waters, probably not the right company to be the
innovator in a money-loosing field at this point in time.

So I don't think their attitude is conservatorism or lack of vision, judging
from the business results of the last years I bet they'll jump on the EV
bandwagon as soon as it starts making money.

------
kfk
Good, but a lot of models have yet to hit production and here in Germany the
only fancy electric cars you can see are Teslas...

Also, I don't think Tesla's advantage is batteries as somebody here is
commenting - it's software and data. Tesla is probably the best in class when
it comes to software between automakers. German automakers don't make good
software and I'd argue don't take it seriously enough even (just look at
status and salary of programmers in Germany vs US). Tesla is collecting data
on each of their cars, German automakers don't do that yet.

Driveless cars are going to be about software and data and German automakers
are weak in both categories.

The only competitive advantage I see is production scale, but how long will
this last?

~~~
ccozan
Re: collecting data. They will never do it. The cannot because the law does
not allow it. A more stricter law is coming. For the suppliers of self driving
components is a nightmare, they only can infer datapoints.

Tesla also cannot collect any data from cars driving in EU, but they gather
enough data in US.

~~~
paganel
> Tesla also cannot collect any data from cars driving in EU, but they gather
> enough data in US.

I'm a relatively recent driver (I've only gotten my license 3 years ago), but
even so, from what I've read and what I've seen with my own eyes driving
cross-border around several European countries I can tell you that there
definitely is a "cultural" difference in driving between different areas of
the globe.

More exactly, a driver in Switzerland in Germany will react and act
differently on the road compared to a driver from Romania, and a driver from a
smaller city will certainly drive differently compared to a driver from a big,
congested city (I noticed this phenomena with my own eyes a couple of weeks
ago when I went to a quieter part of my country and I didn't understand why
most of the incoming drivers weren't "negotiating" more when the roads were
getting narrower, like it happens in the big city where I currently live, they
were just sitting in front of my car not making any maneuver, waiting for I
don't know what).

Taking all this into consideration, I'm pretty sure that the differences in
driving styles between Europe and the USA are big enough that Tesla's data
collected in the States will be of not that much use when applied to European
driving styles. Also, see this recent thread on /r/cars of car-obsessed
redditors discussing about why German-like autobahns could never work in the
States:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/cars/comments/6p30xd/would_an_ameri...](https://www.reddit.com/r/cars/comments/6p30xd/would_an_american_autobahn_be_feasible/).

~~~
dispo001
I remember a chap who enjoyed driving around the US for days. Then when on the
Dutch road he was completely worn out after 2 hours explaining there was way
to much going on for his taste.

------
Pica_soO
Imagine you are CEO of a german car company- and you see the change coming,
you want to change your whole company to adapt to that.

Now first thing you would have to break is the "Zyklus". The "Zyklus" is a 5
year period, in which a care is designed, everything is specified, prototypes
are produced and tested, part-deliverers are driven in "netherland"-auctions
to go to the lowest price for a specified part (like the software), assembly
lines are errected (and "Sonder-maschinen" are ordered for that) and finally
the car is produced.

Each of this departments is in more or less open rebellion against your
intentions. And they got good arguments. Electric cars are not green
currently. They are coal cars - says the marketing department.

Methanol-Cars, using re-synthesized straw is a 100 % green fuel and could re-
use our existing technology not dropping our advantage says engineering. And
there have been some small-scale breakthroughs there recently regarding method
efficiency. Fuels are definatly a better storage then batterys.
[https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/BtL-
Kraftstoff](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/BtL-Kraftstoff)

All parts vital for a electric cars are easy to get at any time, except
batterys, so lets avoid those and switch later, when we dont have to re-invest
so much for the tech - says the "Einkauf".

Its a death by a thousand stings. The best thing they could do, is basically
form completely seperate companys inside there old mother companys, that are
not bound to these cycles and rules.

This is where the power-structure comes to kill you. In any feudal-
hierarchical power-structure creating a new department - creates a rush of
power-thirsty individuals who want to get to the top. So far so natural. These
individuals, will migrate from the old-parts of your company into the new
part- bringing along the experience and the mindset of the old company.

And thats it. Thats is how a dinosaur dies. Willing to change, but the body
wont rearrange.

~~~
catdog
Another factor is that fuel based propulsion systems are a key differentiator
for them, it's complex machinery which is not simply bought from some supplier
like most other components. Electric propulsion is way simpler with a lot less
moving parts, "everybody" can do it. This also will result in jobs
disappearing and politics, which is deeply tied to that industry does its best
to delay that inevitable change. Without outside pressure you can't really
fight these internal power structures because currently business is still
running great.

------
matt4077
Well, they are paying lip-service to electric cars now. I am, however, still
rather sceptical: these companies have so much baggage, it remains to be seen
if they're capable of such changes.

They are, for example, extremely enamoured with whatever tech someone who is
now in power masterminded 20+ years ago when he came through the ranks. If
every road everywhere were to move underground, they'd still install
windshield wipers, if that was the CEO's specialty at some point. Just look at
their obsession with Diesels, with got quite close to sinking VW, and may
still spread to others (Mercedes seems to have done much the same).

But they'd be the best windshield wipers, ever. Obviously.

The move to electric means they can throw away around half their technology.
Make that 70%+ if they're also self-driving. Just the difference in weight,
and where the components are mounted, means you're redesigning everything.

I'd also fear that consumers will regard "electric car" as a separate, new
category, where the formerly most-regarded manufacturers are suddenly the old
guard. For Tesla, or tech companies like Apple, this could be a window where
they can capture mindshare.

All that at a moment where they're financially hurting from the Diesel affair,
with the next (a cartel) just being reported now. With their dominant position
in bot the industry and the country, they've had a decade+ of growing
complacent, creating somewhat-corrupt structures, and laughing at the
competition that may be eating their lunch, soon. Meanwhile, the car is no
longer the status symbol it once was. In their home market, young people no
longer buy cars. A 2-digit % of them doesn't even bother with a driver's
license anymore. When you do use a car, the brand isn't that important
anymore–both because of the loss in status, but also because cheaper foreign
brands have come a long way. (Except US cars, obviously. Those are still a
tasteless abomination)

(I'm German, btw)

------
eb0la
I wonder why there so much focus on "carmakers" like BMW or Daimler instad of
"partmakers" like Bosch that have been working in electric car parts for
years, and are able to manufacture up to 60-70% of the inner components of a
(electric|gasoline|diesel) car.

~~~
ccozan
Also Infineon is quite a leader of power components for electric cars.

Teoretically Bosch + Infineon could team up and produce an electric car with
no help from outside.

------
finchisko
Few years ago, CEO of Audi and others was making fun of Tesla and today all of
them jumping on same boat as Tesla did, because of FOMO. Reminds me classical
quote: "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you,
then you win." I hope Tesla wins, because they deserve it. There was no real
innovation for ages, as auto companies only did minimum to keep their profits.
Also we should not forget diesel gate scandal. They didn't want to invest into
cleaner cars and rather cheated. I've personal aversion agains this industry,
because of that.

~~~
tajen
And Tesla even affords the attitude to say they don't want to claim the whole
market and they're happy to let others use their ideas, because they want a
world with fewer carbon. So, even if they don't win, they can claim it was
their plan all along ;)

~~~
Cthulhu_
The traditional car companies will catch up with them (Apple was 5 years ahead
of the competition at the time of the iPhone too for example), but by then
Tesla will have over 50% of the world's battery production, and guess what all
electric cars need? Batteries, and lots of them, and they will need to be
replaced every 7-10 years.

Tesla right now does pretty well as a car manufacturer and the Model 3 will
probably do well too, but by 2025 when the established car companies (like the
German ones) have caught up, unless Tesla innovated far beyond those, it'll be
a marginal car company - but a huge battery and energy company, as well as a
"fuel" company with their supercharger networks.

~~~
ckastner
> but by then Tesla will have over 50% of the world's battery production

I'm not sure whether you are referring to control or consumption, but in case
it's the former: the cells Tesla uses are produced by Panasonic, so
technically, they would be in control.

------
vr46
Tesla has advantages but they're not making cars with broad appeal outside
technocrats. The performance is great, but it's not everything. They're pretty
ugly, the interiors are naff and the dashboard + software is distracting in
the worst way. I don't drive often, but when I do, it's for covering long
distances across Europe and I cannot imagine wanting to be in a Tesla compared
to my 11-year-old Audi. The major automobile companies are starting to
understand their own strengths and more competition here should help everyone
raise their game.

~~~
a_bonobo
How does Tesla's 'autopilot' fare with German streets? I've only seen videos
from wide multi-lane US-American streets, nothing with cramped 100-year old
German inner-city streets

~~~
Cthulhu_
In addition, how does it do on Germany's high-speed highways? They have a
number of unlimited speed highways, great for high-performance BMW's and
Audi's but probably not great for battery powered cars.

~~~
vr46
I imagine Teslas perform well, I've seen a few on the autobahn, but battery
life will be limited somewhat at very high speeds, which is why I imagine they
limit the top speed of the Model S. Autopilot is all very well, but on two-
lane autobahns, where the speed disparity between lanes can be very high
(Lorries in one lane, overtaking in the other), one needs to be fairly
vigilant.

~~~
ccozan
I drive daily my german Autobahn. With no exception, I haven't seen a Tesla
drive faster than 120 Km/H. Most of them trail behind a truck, probably to
conserve energy - less wind resistance.

I almost laugh when I see them crawling like that.

~~~
prostoalex
> Most of them trail behind a truck, probably to conserve energy - less wind
> resistance.

Most likely the car is on autopilot, and the driver opined to take his
attention off the road and do something else. I see that occasionally with
Teslas driving from LA to Vegas - a giant semitruck up front is something that
you know radar won't screw up, plus it removes incentives for other guys to
cut in front of you, as a spot behind a truck is rarely that desirable.

------
haberman
> Last year, they teamed up to buy Nokia’s HERE, a digital mapping service
> crucial for driverless cars. Volkswagen’s Müller says he does not want to be
> dependent on digital services companies in the fast-growing market for self-
> driving technology and mobility services. “We want to be in control of our
> destiny,” he told Handelsblatt in June.

I can understand why they want that, but as a consumer I want a good
experience. When non-software companies write software, it seems it is almost
invariably inferior. I never actually enjoyed the experience of using a car
stereo until I got a deck that supports CarPlay (Apple) and Android Auto
(Google). These standards let you attach your phone to the stereo and let the
phone run the UI. They are so much better than the software that comes on
stereo decks.

Even Apple Maps, made by a good software company, is still noticeably inferior
to Google Maps in my opinion. Apple has severely demoted Google Maps on its
platform, presumably for the same reason as the carmakers: they don't want to
be dependent on Google. So you can't use Google Maps in CarPlay, and if you
click on an address in iMessage "Open in Google Maps" is not an option. For
Apple I'm sure they see this as being less dependent on Google, but for me as
a user it's pushing me away from their platform. I want the best maps product
out there, and for me that is Google Maps. So I'm planning for my next phone
to be a Google phone.

(It's almost hilarious how far Apple goes in this. If you delete the Apple
Maps app from your phone, and then click an address in iMessage, "Open in
Google Maps" _still_ isn't an option. But there is an option to _re-install_
Apple Maps. This strikes me as pretty insecure that their maps product can
compete on its merits.)

EDIT: I had slightly misunderstood: HERE is an acquisition consisting of all
the Navteq data. So it does have legitimately good data behind it.

~~~
Tomte
HERE is superb. In my experience it works better for (car) navigation than
Apple or Google.

It goes back a long time, I've already had it on my Nokia 5800 and then on my
Windows phone.

~~~
sddfd
I reguarly drive rentals from all German premium brands. All their navigation
is good, but the VW/Audi navigation system stands out. It has the cleanest
interface and displays exactly the information you need.

Also, the VW/Audi system that offers route changes around traffic jams is the
most transparent.

Years ago, I would navigate using my smartphone. Haven't been doing that
though. The only thing I am missing is voice input for addresses.

~~~
Tomte
Unfortunately, map updates to car navigation systems are quite expensive.

Anecdote: My father used to drive an Audi that showed all kinds of places on
the map: restaurants, gas stations, Audi dealers. All could be switched off.

Except cemeteries. Those were always shown, quite prominently. You were
driving overland, and you were constantly seeing cemeteries.

Maybe Audi's contribution to traffic safety education...

~~~
sddfd
Funny story :)

> Unfortunately, map updates to car navigation systems are quite expensive.

I thought cars would get their updates via a connection to a cell network?

~~~
Tomte
No. You're buying a CD that is physically swapped for the old one.

------
kensai
Article is 2016, please put it on the title, this isn't exactly new news.

------
daryas
> Volkswagen is investing heavily in batteries and reportedly working on its
> own factory. > Batteries are a commodity once production is established.

I would like more info on what it takes to establish battery production for
the output of millions of cars (especially in terms of resource availability
and timescale for the big players). Pretty much all the articles I saw skip
this point all together.

------
adrianN
Great news for Tesla, they are a battery company after all and only produce
electric cars for advertisement.

~~~
foepys
I think it's the other way around. Tesla knew that they need batteries for
their cars and that the battery market is highly competitive and volatile. The
only way to ensure a reliable supply chain for batteries is to build batteries
themselves.

~~~
Cthulhu_
Either way they'll win - make batteries at cost for their own cars, or sell
batteries with profit for other manufacturer's electric cars. They also win in
goodwill. And with the supercharger network, which I'm sure they'll open up
(if they aren't already) to all electric cars. How much does a charge cost
there?

------
solarkraft
Total bullshit. Handelsblatt is a german website. We have nothing.

The industry is slowly getting it, but I doubt it'll really get big in EVs.

------
stesch
"it has no technology or business model that others can’t easily copy"

Well, Tesla even made their patents free for you to do so.

------
dovdovdov
race, contest, cartel...

[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-21/audi-
join...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-21/audi-joins-
daimler-in-diesel-recall-as-emissions-scrutiny-grows)

