
Tesla is close to becoming the most valuable car company - theBashShell
https://www.axios.com/tesla-stock-most-valuable-car-company-2765c5d0-b31f-400c-a921-0f8545480ddc.html
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davedx
Despite the production chaos, missed deadlines, over promises and general CEO
fuckwittery, Tesla is a massive success story that was in the right place at
the right time and completely changed an industry. I have huge respect for
everyone who worked there and helped build it.

I was a (small time) shareholder from around 2013 until last year when I
happily liquidated my position and put in an order for a Model 3.

I don't think anyone can really say whether this share price is justified even
with all the future growth priced in. This is a company that has been at least
partly responsible for some quite fundamental changes in mobility, and they're
nowhere done yet. (I'm more excited about the Semi than Cybertruck).

They've also helped drive the price/watt of batteries right down which is
having a multitude of knock-on effects across many industries. Without Tesla,
would we have seen battery powered airplanes starting to be built? Maybe we
would, but they would probably be at the least more expensive.

I can't wait to see what the future holds for Tesla, and despite all his
shortcomings, I'm happy Musk is still in charge. This all simply would not
have happened without his insane drive and determination.

(Strangely, HN, that loved Apple in Steve Jobs' glory days, seems to have a
lot of irrational hatred for Tesla).

~~~
fsloth
"(Strangely, HN, that loved Apple in Steve Jobs' glory days, seems to have a
lot of irrational hatred for Tesla)."

Jobs was vocal in public about products they have already launched. They
delivered products that were obviously best at what they were intended for.
Musk is vocal about - well, apparently everything - and ICE:s are still a
superior option for a large category of car owners.

I think the biggest gripe is probably about overpromising autopilot capability
years before it's actually production ready.

Still, Musk is up there with Ford on a list of industrialists who made a dent
in the universe in my books.

~~~
davedx
> I think the biggest gripe is probably about overpromising autopilot
> capability years before it's actually production ready.

Very fair! This has been a pretty spectacular overpromise. I firmly believe
FSD will get here eventually but the timeframes were ridiculously off.

What I also read is an insane amount of comment on every SpaceX and Tesla post
here about how bad it is to have touchscreens in cars or spacecraft, and how
huge swathes of HN commenters are absolutely convinced touchscreens are
dangerous, regressive, etc. Even when professional pilots chime in about how
they're used in aircraft. Even when SpaceX designed their Dragon controls _in
consultation with the veteran astronauts who use them_ , HN was convinced this
was bad, and don't even mention they dared used Chromium!

(Not really a Tesla specific thing using touchscreens but seems to be a very
popular complaint about them here.)

~~~
Silhouette
_What I also read is an insane amount of comment on every SpaceX and Tesla
post here about how bad it is to have touchscreens in cars or spacecraft, and
how huge swathes of HN commenters are absolutely convinced touchscreens are
dangerous, regressive, etc._

[https://trl.co.uk/reports/interacting-android-auto-and-
apple...](https://trl.co.uk/reports/interacting-android-auto-and-apple-
carplay-when-driving)

 _Even when professional pilots chime in about how they 're used in aircraft._

Flying an aircraft is a very different experience to driving a car. The
procedures, instruments and control systems are so different that I'm not sure
there's really any meaningful comparison at all.

------
partiallypro
If you think this is insane, look at Nikola, an electric car company that has
never produced a single vehicle...is now worth more than Ford (as of
yesterday.)

~~~
dhosek
I'd never heard of them before. Here's wikipedia on them:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Motor_Company](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Motor_Company)

It appears that technically, your statement is incorrect in that they've
produced some prototypes. And they have orders (not sure if that counts as
sales), but they've not actually delivered a production vehicle yet. Which
makes their market cap seem insane, but it seems like most publicly traded
companies have had insane market caps since the 90s.

~~~
nickik
The 'orders' are basically you can go to their webside and say 'I want 1000
trucks' no information, account or down-payment.

Usually public companies go threw funding rounds, this company knew they
couldn't convince any real funds.

They claim to have battery technology that is way ahead of anybody else, and
that just sounds like a nonsense claim. They basically do nothing inhouse, say
about Tesla what you want but they have technical skills.

Seems to me Nikola is basically a scam designed to be as Tesla like as
possible but with a little twist to make it seem just different enough.

~~~
dhosek
The wikipedia article claims Anheuser-Busch ordered 800 trucks in 2018 with a
2020 delivery target, so barring outright misinformation, that's probably a
legit order. Whether the order gets filled is a different question.

~~~
nickik
That order might be real, but of the 10 billion many are just clicks on their
website. Probably Anheuser-Busch thought 'free preorder, why not' and they
probably have a hand in a couple of future truck companies.

------
martythemaniak
Tesla is an industrial conglomerate that will power the 21st century. At the
moment they are a small, luxury car maker, but much like Apple was a small,
luxury computer maker, Tesla's ambitions are great and their stock price is a
function of how much the market believes that they will be able to achieve
that.

The parts of this conglomerate are:

* The vehicle manufacturing. This one is obvious - they have a big lead on other automakers in producing EVs and this lead is not closing. They will keep expanding their portfolio of models and markets until they're near the top.

* The mobility service. This will grow out of their Autopilot efforts and take on Uber et all. This will be much wider though, as it will include public transit services with the Boring Co, private cars, and even taking on rail with fleets of Semis.

* The electricity utility business. This one is simple as well - there's a ton of cheap solar and wind power. Pairing it with batteries and Tesla's management software means they'll be providing the infrastructure utilities use. They likely won't become a utility themselves, as that requires local certifications etc.

* The homes business. Your home needs a battery, a roof that makes power and a geothermal HVAC system. Tesla wants to sell them to you all tied up with great software.

* Planes. Electric flight needs the best batteries and electric motors, Tesla would be pretty crazy not to pursue this. No, they're not going to take on Boeing or Airbus, but small, regional commuter planes (range of several hundred km) are within reach in 10 years.

Anyway, it's pretty simple. If you believe the above, go long. If you think
it's BS, go short. If you think this is a bit too out-there/WTF, then just sit
back and enjoy the show.

------
coldcode
It has declining revenues, increasing liabilities, and sell expensive cars in
a strange recessive economy. Its stock is being treated like early Facebook.
Sure it might have some magical future where it dominates auto sales forever,
but supporting this valuation is nuts.

~~~
CrazyStat
Declining revenues? I want some of what you're smoking.

~~~
bhupy
I think it's incorrect to say that their revenues are declining, but in this
past year Ford and GM sold 60-70x more cars than Tesla did, each. Tesla would
have to monopolize car production on the entire planet to justify their
valuation, at least as a car company.

If you were to price this company as a combination of auto (Ford/GM) + energy
(Chevron) + ridesharing? (Uber/Lyft), then you could maybe justify this
valuation in the long run, but Tesla is yet to really prove any real revenue
in energy and ridesharing, at scale. The current value is pure hype and
expectation, and remains to be seen who ends up being correct in the long run.

~~~
nickik
They have not made money as a a ride-sharing company as they have not tried
this. The point is that when it comes online, they will have a huge fleet.
That means extra profit with very little investing.

~~~
bhupy
> The point is that when it comes online, they will have a huge fleet.

This might be correct in a world with full-self-driving, though as others
might point out, we're quite far away from that. Waymo is probably closer to
full-self-driving than Tesla is [1].

If you're talking about just raw Tesla car ownership, then ride-sharing
operations still requires a human being to be sitting in the driver's seat
that expects to be fairly compensated, at which point you have the same supply
growth problem that Uber/Lyft have.

[1] [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaOB-
ErYq6Y](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaOB-ErYq6Y)

------
u10
The world has gone insane... treating a manufacturing company like it's a tech
company and applying the "appropriate" multiples. People are going to lose
their shirts on this one.

~~~
the-dude
Tesla is by no means just a manufacturing company.

~~~
u10
Their core business is manufacturing. The vast majority of their RnD and capex
goes into manufacturing. They don't sell software, they sell cars.

------
samfisher83
The valuation on this stock is insane. However shorting it is also insane.

~~~
StavrosK
What word would you use to describe thinking that those sentences can both be
true at the same time?

~~~
CrazyStat
A recognition that the market may continue to be irrational for a long time,
so even if you believe a company to be extremely overvalued it may be unwise
to short it unless you have infinitely deep pockets.

If you insist on a single word, may I suggest "experience."

~~~
gpm
And even if you have infinite money, a short squeeze in the meantime can mean
that you permanently lose money on shorting the stock before it goes down.

------
tibbydudeza
Talk to me again when they make something for the common folk like the Toyota
Corolla or VW Golf ... sure they will become an important player but it will
be like Volvo.

~~~
AlanSE
The valuation basically assumes that the Corolla of Tesla will come around
sometime in the next 10 years, otherwise volume won't be enough. But not
before they run out of all the most profitable markets. Thus the consumer-
level truck.

------
A4ET8a8uTh0
I want to love Tesla, but between messing with car setup OTA, issues with
getting parts and basically treating car like a software release, it is
difficult for me to consider it for purchase ( and I do want an EV ). Eh, I
really hope other manufacturers deliver.

------
zaroth
Most of all it’s important to understand the headline is totally false. The
“value” of a company is not represented in its equity market cap.

Other car companies finance their operations through debt instead of equity.
It directly effects their market cap. It doesn’t directly effect their
“value”.

~~~
bryanlarsen
Correct.

Toyota enterprise value: $325B

Tesla enterprise value: $200B

[https://ycharts.com/companies/TM/enterprise_value](https://ycharts.com/companies/TM/enterprise_value)
[https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/enterprise_value](https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/enterprise_value)

------
stunt
Stock market is just a money game now. Don't try to make sense of it.

------
syllable_studio
People will never understand Tesla's value if they don't understand that Tesla
is more than just a car company. (But no comment on the current stock value.)

~~~
jariel
Actually, really the opposite.

People will never understand Tesla unless they understand it really is just a
car company.

There is no magic leap here. Cars are becoming smarter, and more electric and
car manufacturers have been adjusting all along.

Most car buyers are not caught up in the heady-dreamspace that the Tesla brand
is built on - they will just by what they perceive to be value at price.

What is 'amazing' is that someone was able to actually break into making cars
in the 21st century! That's a hell of an achievement.

But it's just a car.

~~~
klmadfejno
People treat 'tech' as a type of company. It should really be a modifier. It's
still noteworthy though. The advantages of being tech literate and building
your processes from the ground up with software in mind cuts out enormous
swaths of labor costs and decision making tedium. It's not something that
legacy companies of any industry are often successful at reshaping towards.

------
pbreit
Elon is the greatest entrepreneur of the era and possibly ever. Stockholders
are paying for a large piece of his attention and interest.

------
sixQuarks
Do the fundamentals justify Tesla's market cap? No.

Is Tesla just a car company? No.

Does Tesla still have an exponential growth outlook? Yes.

Has Tesla been able to meet their stated goals in the 1st 10 years? Yes.

Do you think Tesla will meet their stated goals for the next 10 years?
Probably

This is why Tesla market cap is nearly 200 billion.

~~~
sschueller
"Has Tesla been able to meet their stated goals in the 1st 10 years? Yes"

Where is the full self driving car? They are selling a feature that most
likely will never exist.

~~~
nickik
That there is so much tech conservatism on Hacker News is quite baffling. The
idea that self driving cars will not exist is just nonsense, and Tesla is best
place to exploit it.

~~~
bhupy
Honest question: why is Tesla in a better place to "exploit" self driving than
Waymo?

~~~
sixQuarks
billions of miles of real-world driving data from a million and growing fleet
of vehicles.

Tesla has built their own chip optimized fully for self-driving.

all-in on vision based full self-driving, which seems to be the only way to
solve all the edge cases. Even if google accomplishes self driving with lidar,
lidar will never be able to compensate for all edge cases. Human vision
already compensates for all edge cases, thus the case for vision based self
driving.

~~~
jcranmer
It's been such a long time since I've heard someone trot out the "Tesla has
the best raw data" canard that I thought it had finally died off for real.

For starters, Tesla still seems to have this annoying habit of not detecting
large, white trucks that are stopped in the middle of the highway, and will
happily drive into them at full speed. This isn't exactly an "edge case" issue
here.

~~~
sixQuarks
I didn't say best raw data. Lidar obviously produces better raw data on an
individual basis. Tesla has more real-world driving data overall.
Nevertheless, it doesn't matter. Tesla is the only one going all-in on vision
based self driving. That's the key thing that's going to get us to full self
driving. Everyone will eventually need to do this.

~~~
jcranmer
> I didn't say best raw data. Lidar obviously produces better raw data on an
> individual basis. Tesla has more real-world driving data overall.

The "real-world driving data" is what I'm calling the "raw data" here, as it's
the raw data from the standpoint of the (perceived) AI algorithms driving
self-driving cars.

> Tesla is the only one going all-in on vision based self driving. That's the
> key thing that's going to get us to full self driving.

Why is it the key thing? Why should worsening the quality of your input data
improve the results?

~~~
sixQuarks
Because the important part is the software that interprets that data.

Our eyes get worse data than lidar, yet our brains are able to process this
data more effectively.

Also, lidar is super expensive. It will take much longer to get affordable
lidar into everyday vehicles.

~~~
jcranmer
The hardware necessary to emulate our brain capabilities with neural nets is
several orders of magnitude more expensive than lidar.

Running with a more responsible hardware stack means the software has to be
more cleverly designed, and that design is mostly not in the just-throw-data-
at-a-neural-net stage. Building your visible-light-only driving system is
going to cause you to struggle a lot harder at getting a good subroutine for
"how far away is that object?" while providing you no benefit to solving the
harder problem of "what will that object react to my coming nearer to it?"

~~~
sixQuarks
I was using an analogy with the brain. You don't have to replicate a brain for
full self driving.

