

Android overtakes iOS in desired smartphone surveys - sadiq
http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/?p=27418

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codex
The Android installed base is 37% but only 31% of smartphone buyers-to-be want
Android to be their next phone. The iPhone installed base is 27% but 30% of
users want the iPhone to be their next phone. Whether or not this indicates
the strength of Android, or the weakness of Android, depends on how many of
those polled already own a smartphone. If most of the polled group don't own a
smartphone at all, then it's pretty good for Android. If the polled group
reflects current smartphone market share, then iPhone looks relatively strong,
because that would indicate more existing Android owners want to move to the
iPhone than vice-versa.

Other factors may also play a role. For example, Android is now outselling
iPhone by a two to one margin. Most of these sales could be to people who have
never had a smartphone before, and they could be totally wowed by Android. So
it would make sense that these users, when polled, would prefer another
Android phone--after all, it's miles better than the dumb phone that they were
previously using. They've never used an iPhone and don't see why they need
one, especially given the higher price of the iPhone (most Android phones are
cheap, relatively speaking).

~~~
innes
I find the rationalizations made in these iPhone/Android threads fascinating.
Not sure doing so is healthy though.

~~~
codex
Agreed. One of the delights of ambiguity is that it allows one to project
one's own prejudices into the data. Allow me:

For example, what does it mean that 31% of people want an Android phone but a
whopping 50% of them buy one? Is it because the lower price is compelling
undecideds to switch? Or is it because carriers promote Android in-store
because the advertising rev. share is more profitable for them (see
[http://paidcontent.org/article/419-androids-secret-sauce-
goo...](http://paidcontent.org/article/419-androids-secret-sauce-googles-
little-known-advertising-rev-share-deals-/)). Or is it simply that Android
simply kicks ass? Or all three?

But, on the other hand, what does it mean that the Android installed base is
37% greater than iPhone, but Android browser share is only 10% greater? Does
that indicate that some people aren't using the smartphone features of
Android, and instead are just buying them as cheap phones with cool cameras
and email?

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Andys
Some iPhoners have said consumers were preferring to buy iPhones because they
are somehow superior. I think that the masses really just want to buy the new
hotness. They want what the other guy has.

------
rlmw
Its interesting because Android was outselling the iphone when the iphone was
the most desired platform. It wouldn't be surprising if android took an even
greater market share lead in future.

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zheng
I'm excited to see that the populace at large (not just tech enthusiasts) are
learning about something other than iOS, but I'd be wary of calling this a big
win for Google or something similar. Remember that APPL is still raking in
much more cash off of their iOS devices than Google is from Android. This is
probably true even if you consider the indirect income Google sees from
Android.

I think something more telling is that RIM is still slipping. Will they be
able to recover?

------
ajg1977
I find it hard to believe that 30% of potential mobile phone purchasers even
know what Android is.

I would love to know how they performed this survey.

~~~
NickPollard
Why do you find it hard to believe?

You should adjust your belief to fit the available data, don't adjust the data
to fit your belief.

~~~
wriq
_You should adjust your belief to fit the available data, don't adjust the
data to fit your belief._

I would normally agree, but in my opinion, surveys fall into the "Lies, damned
lies, and statistics" category. They hold the same value as apache-bench
numbers that are posted every time a new webstack appears.

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ares2012
That's interesting, but I suspect it was biased a bit by the affordability and
ubiquity of Android devices. It's hard to turn around in a mobile store these
days without bumping into a load of extremely cheap Android phones.

Perhaps people are planning to get Android devices but would love an iPhone if
it was the same price. It's the same with cars. If you surveyed people most
would say they plan to get a Toyota, but only because Ferrari is outside their
price range.

~~~
aditya42
Well, of course.

It has been argued for years that pitting Android against the iPhone is unfair
because Android comes in so many devices at many price points whereas the
iPhone is just that-- _the_ iPhone. There are just two models (the previous,
and the current. It used to be just one until 2 years ago.), one hardware spec
(with varying memory sizes, sure).

But that's the game Apple chose to play. They intentionally crippled
themselves (even if they don't think so), so this is really a comparison of
Apple's strategy vs. Google's strategy. And Google's strategy seems to be
winning in some aspects.

~~~
wvenable
Google and Apple aren't playing the same game. Apple doesn't care about market
share, they care about profits. Google cares only about market share: the OS
is free, they give search revenue to manufacturers and app revenue to
carriers.

Both strategies are winning given their specific (and different) goals.

------
tobylane
~45-50% of people want to vote republican, but only 1% will benefit (and those
1% are probably the only people who know and believe all the details and
tricks). I'm not saying Android is evil, or wrong, but its adverts have to
depend on less truth and internal/natural interest than iphone ads.

