
Federal report: AI could threaten up to 47 percent of jobs in two decades - happy-go-lucky
http://arstechnica.com/business/2016/12/federal-report-ai-could-threaten-up-to-47-percent-of-jobs-in-two-decades/
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qwrusz
>> "The critical question that researchers cannot answer is whether job
growth, which traditionally has offset the loss of 6 percent of US jobs every
quarter due to downsizing or closing businesses, can likewise absorb losses
due to automation."

This sentence is basically saying researchers cannot predict the future when
it comes to jobs. So job growth could be robust or it could fall, they have no
idea. Yet this is a report by these same researchers predicting the future of
jobs! How the heck can we take it seriously.

If someone can't answer questions about future job growth I would just be a
bit careful how much to trust their opinions about future job losses.

AI and automation is a real issue for employment and should be studied, but
don't just scare people without also mentioning how many uncertainties there
are about the pace of change or who will be effected first or effected
hardest.

Side note: Economies have done just fine when more than half workforce is not
employed. One place to look for examples and lessons where this happened is
_all of modern history_ : half the population is women and they only really
entered the workforce very very recently and only in a few places, more so in
the West. We have seen economies with half of able workers not having jobs,
the world kept turning, economic growth and innovation still happened.
"History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes"

