
Automakers Go Electric, Even If Gas Is Cheap - vwoolf
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/12/business/going-electric-even-if-gas-is-cheap.html
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danhak
Tesla has proven that electric cars can be fundamentally superior to their ICE
counterparts in nearly all respects, except for cost (for now) and the speed
to refuel (which is made moot by the convenience of refueling from home if you
have garage access).

The trend toward EVs despite low gas prices should be no more baffling than
the trend toward smartphones despite low flip-phone prices.

~~~
jseliger
_except for cost_

And the cost is falling with astonishing rapidity:
[http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/01/chevrolets-bolt-is-an-
el...](http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/01/chevrolets-bolt-is-an-electric-
vehicle-for-the-masses-and-weve-driven-it/). We may end up in a situation in
which electric cars are cheaper and simpler than ICE cars sooner than is
commonly supposed.

The scenario I'm sketching obviously isn't guaranteed, but it's gotta be more
than 10% likely and probably less than 85% likely. At the very least it's
likely enough to scare conventional carmakers.

~~~
vvanders
If you live in a place like the PNW where electricity is cheap there's some
really awesome synergy there.

First month of owning an EV I put ~3k miles on it at ~$40/mo electricity bill
increase. Most EVs range from 230-330 Wh/mi, gas for the car it replaced would
have been ~$250. If you drive a lot EVs make sense for a bunch of reasons(no
oil changes drop the per-mile cost even lower).

~~~
aembleton
How many KW/h of electricity is that in your first month? Which EV do you
have?

~~~
vvanders
~330 Wh/mi(Model S 85D) * 3k = 990kWh * 0.06c per kWh

Leafs come in around 230 Wh/mi from what I hear which is even better from a
cost perspective.

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barney54
Pop Quiz:

Did sales of electric cars grow or decrease in 2015 compared to 2014. Answer:
[http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-
scorecard/](http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/)

What about sales of ICEs? [http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/202980/us-auto-
sales-hit-all...](http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/202980/us-auto-sales-hit-
alltime-high-in-2015-what-about-2016)

So if overall car sales are up by EV sales are down, tell me why we are so
bullish on EVs?

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klipt
> “The government is regulating what automakers have to produce to meet new
> standards, but it isn’t what consumers want to buy,” said Michelle Krebs, an
> analyst with the firm Autotrader.

Why doesn't the fed just use higher taxes on gas to disincentivize gas
guzzlers, and let the market take care of the rest?

US gas prices are ridiculously low compared to most of the developed world.

~~~
outlace
That would disproportionately penalize poor people. Imagine gas prices
suddenly spike due to a new gas tax, poor people who can barely afford a used
2001 Toyota Camry are now even worse off, while your typical doctor or
software engineer just goes out and buys a fancy new hybrid or electric car.

Sure it may eventually change market conditions to favor electric vehicles,
but it will be a long time before there are cheap, used electric vehicles for
poor people to buy.

~~~
mgbmtl
Many cities have local gas taxes that are used to subsidize public transport.
In Quebec for example, there is a tax applied only in Montreal (where the
public transport system is almost usable, compared to other North American
cities), so gas is always 5-10¢/L more expensive in the city. So people living
in poorer rural areas aren't affected.

Other upside: a lot of gas stations have closed, converted to apartment/condo
buildings, which helps to revitalize parts of the city.

Downside: I don't feel like the provincial government has been investing at
all in public transport. On the contrary, they're investing in more
unsustainable highways to make suburbans happy. 1960s nostalgia.

~~~
vlehto
In Finland they have envisioned somekind of transmitters to all cars that
would signal if the car passes certain border close to Helsinki. This passing
would cause 20 cent traffic payment to be billed from that driver. Costs of
the system millions, goal is to bring down congestion. (As if people would
want to sit in traffic.)

You Canadians are freaking smart.

~~~
executesorder66
In South Africa our government built a system like that on most of the
highways around Johannesburg. (One of our main cities)

Everyone got pissed off, and refuse to pay, but still drive on the highway
anyway.

Result: still the same amount of traffic, and now the government is sitting
with billions of Rands worth of new debt.

------
bradley_long
Gas and oil will not be cheap forever. Now it goes down but when investors or
governments want to rise its price, it can be easily changed. Just make some
"noises" or "predictions" and the price will be affected.

Besides, electric cars have zero road emission. Drivers will not see the
exhaust emissions by themselves. Electric cars shifted the emissions to the
power plant so drivers will have less feelings about their contribution to
global warming.

~~~
danhak
> Electric cars shifted the emissions to the power plant so drivers will have
> less feelings about their contribution to global warming.

Even the filthiest conventional power plants are significantly more efficient
than the internal combustion engine and emit fewer greenhouse gasses.

Aside from that, the electric grid is becoming cleaner by the month which
means EVs automatically become cleaner as we transition to renewables and
clean generation. Gasoline engines never become cleaner.

That's the main sustainability argument for EVs: de-coupling transportation
from oil or any particular fuel, thereby enabling a clear path as the grid
continues to transition to renewables.

------
oppositelock
Cars are going to get much more expensive with these fuel efficiency mandates
and the affluent will drive electrics, while everyone else will drive old
cars.

We have ever increasing crashworthiness requirements, which make cars heavier,
which increases car weight. We have a ratcheting fuel efficiency mandate. The
convergence of these two pushes for lighter, more crashworthy cars, which
means expensive materials. Electric cars may be price competitive very soon as
prices for batteries fall, and as prices for gasoline cars increase.

However, these regulations, while well meaning, will be counter-productive.
People simply can't afford new cars anymore and are driving old cars much
longer. We have a lot of 1990's engines out there in fairly reliable cars, and
these emit far more pollution than a modern car, nevermind the fuel
efficiency.

~~~
erikpukinskis
Doubtful. The price per mile to rent a self driving electric will be lower
than the cost per mile for gasoline in fairly short order.

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pstrateman
Federal and State governments are literally paying people to buy plug-in
electric vehicles.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-
in_electric_vehicles_in_t...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-
in_electric_vehicles_in_the_United_States#Government_support)

~~~
vvanders
This is a good thing. We should be incentivising move towards clean energy
rather than letting things with hidden costs continue.

~~~
forgetsusername
Sure, everyone loves subsidies when they are the ones getting them.

Having the government pick winners is a losing proposition. The correct
solution is to properly price the externalities of ICEs, then let the market
sort it out.

~~~
vvanders
I agree carbon tax is the right way to go, although politically it might be
difficult(see other thread here). I'd rather have something(subsidies) than
nothing at all.

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jfoutz
It was very kind of Saudi Arabia to allow us to develop so much oil extraction
technology at $100 and now teach us how to use that new technology profitably
at $35.

I'm not exactly a fan of fracking and tar sand extraction, but it is quite an
achievement.

------
dilemma
Move to electric vehicles and produce the electricity needed by burning fossil
fuel in large scale regional plants with higher efficiency, where it is also
economic to invest in filter systems to reduce pollution.

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desireco42
This is how it should be, whatever is influencing prices now will pass, this
is the future.

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Shivetya
Other than, well we are seeing the results of two to as many of five years of
the pipeline coming out finally. It isn't like they can plan for cheap gas. GM
would know this best with the second generation Volt landing when gas prices
were already on their way down.

The real opportunity here isn't for the automakers, it is for the Congress to
change the law with regards to fuel taxes so as to set a floor price on fuel
to encourage the shift to more economical vehicles; not necessarily full ev. A
tax system could be set to provide a floor and a ceiling - meaning if the
product price got to high the tax would decrease a bit to compensate

Still, what did you expect from the big companies in the face of the fleet
mileage requirements? You cannot do that without at least hybridization.
Finally, with GM, did anyone really expect them to cede the everyday car buyer
market when it came to electrics. GM even has the production capacity to make
the cars when people want them

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brownbat
Electric cars trade pump prices for grid prices. In the long run, that should
make sense whether there's an oil glut or not, since oil should affect prices
in both columns.[0]

Hybrids trade pump prices for cost of additional (non-oil-based) components.
That's going to be a better trade when pump prices are high. It's more
contingent.

So... low oil prices could mean we should see more electrics, but fewer
hybrids.

[0] Should, hasn't yet, I don't know why. So far lower oil costs are reflected
in transportation fuel, but not in household electricity costs.[1] Maybe
because the grid just takes a really long time to shift its energy portfolio?
Maybe I'm just completely wrong...

[1]
[http://www.eia.gov/pressroom/presentations/sieminski_0226201...](http://www.eia.gov/pressroom/presentations/sieminski_02262015_csis.pdf)
: slide 11.

[2] Yes, embedded footnotes. And unreferenced footnotes. Madness.

~~~
greenyoda
_" So far lower oil costs are reflected in transportation fuel, but not in
household electricity costs."_

In 2014, petroleum only accounted for 1% of US electricity generation, so the
price of oil isn't likely to have much of an effect on the price of
electricity:

[http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3](http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3)

------
intopieces
Now if the government would just raise the fuel tax, we'd really be in
business. Start making up for the drop in prices and incentivize electric
vehicles on the consumer side as well.

~~~
jfoster
Wouldn't that risk turning a government anti-EV, since they would be addicted
to the revenue from fuel?

~~~
intopieces
This is a good point. It's important to remember, though, that local and state
governments think in the short term. In the short term, gas vehicles are going
to be around for a long time. The average age of cars on U.S. roads is at a
record 11.5 years, according to research firm IHS Automotive.[0]

That is to say, if 2015 were the last year anyone could buy a gasoline-fueled
car, we'd be looking at 2027 for that last batch to age out.

[0][http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-ihs-
average-c...](http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-ihs-average-car-
age-20150729-story.html)

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Donwangugi
Sidenote: Is there a hackernews or lobsters for automotive technology?

~~~
csours
Lobsters?

~~~
positr0n
[https://lobste.rs/about](https://lobste.rs/about) \- It is like hacker news
but requires invites.

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rokhayakebe
Something else: electric everything and using less oil is the only way out of
political instability in some parts of the world.

