

A chart showing a fascinating historical perspective of the current housing crisis.  - rthomas6
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_wFWqWIH-WFU/SPnTDZ-G-pI/AAAAAAAAGLw/EmInfXSfe00/s1600-h/housing_projection.jpg

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thwarted
Buh, there is an extra tick mark between 2000 and 2010.

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time_management
The natural trend for housing prices should be down, as technology makes
equivalent houses cheaper to buy, and better transportation infrastructure (in
theory) increases the supply of viable housing.

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netcan
Not disagreeing with you on the general idea but there are other factors
pushing up. Mostly to do with rising population. 'Existing' houses stand in
places that will over time become more central, more developed & therefore
more scarce.

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pg
These are both good points. I was wondering why the supposed trend was so
flat. The answer is that there are so many other random factors pushing in
both directions that there probably is no real trend.

It would probably be more reliable to predict the bottom by looking at the
ratio of house prices to income. _That_ shouldn't change too fast.

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netcan
An interesting bit is that you'd need to use different samples to infer about
the 'cost of housing' then what you would need to infer about the 'value of
property.'

Most places, the cheaper houses are new developments on the city's fringe.
Since a lot of people live there, you need to take them into account when
looking at 'housing costs.' But you don't take into account new developments
when looking at real estate as an asset. You're not buying 'housing' your
buying 'houses.'

Existing properties can increase while cheap new houses keep averages down.

