
Data Shows Shelter-in-Place Is Ending, Whether Governments Want It to or Not - nostromo
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2020/05/01/apple-data-shows-shelter-in-place-is-ending-whether-governments-want-it-to-or-not/
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JoeMayoBot
Driving through Las Vegas, you would hardly know there was still a mandatory
quarantine. Stores and restaurants have big signs saying "Open", the roads
have normal traffic, and there's normal sidewalk activity too. Yet, the
Governor is regularly on TV talking about how the state is still in quarantine
and the plan to gradually reopen. What is true is that casinos are shut down
and large public activities, like concerts and sporting events, aren't
happening. I won't speak to the morality because people have wildly different
opinions, but the reality is that a lot of people refuse to quarantine any
more.

~~~
taeric
Did Vegas see a large outbreak? It is actually one of the places that
convinced me before that we have a bad understanding of this virus. No model
of community spread made any sense as to how it was not in Vegas.

~~~
Libeste
An outbreak in Vegas would be more a case of tourists infecting each other
than the residents of the town getting sick.

And if you've caught something in Vegas and spread the disease across your
hometown, you're probably not going to admit it. This virus is no exception.

~~~
JoeMayoBot
There's no evidence to suggest that the government would intentionally lie
about numbers, let alone in Las Vegas. If anything, it's likely due to
ignorance and lack of resources in testing.

~~~
hcknwscommenter
It's not about the government lying. It's about individuals visiting vegas,
leaving after a few days, coming back and then having to come clean that they
were feeling a little under the weather when they got on the plane (which
could arguably be manslaughter depending on the exact circumstances).

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JacksonGariety
No matter how seriously you value your life, no matter how seriously you take
the quarantine, you simply cannot overlook the fact that all of this looks
exactly like every other recent TV sensation: it comes out of nowhere; the
media capitalizes on it; and now we're slowly getting bored, waiting for
something substantial to happen in our lives.

~~~
jamroom
I’m not sure I would call 65,000+ dead from coronavirus “waiting for something
to happen”.

~~~
DeonPenny
The problem is even if that doubles in 2018 flu had like 90k. Lets say by
November it doesn't reach 90k how angry would people be. All the business
owners and workers that were laid off.

~~~
jobigoud
If you deploy a contingency plan you can't then later say "see it wasn't so
bad" using the measured numbers. You have to use a model of what it would have
been without the containment measures.

~~~
DeonPenny
Based on the fact states/countries have used different levels of contingency
and some states have similar sizes its easy enough to use states as A/B tests
and figure out the p-value.

But Idk if it needs to be that complicated. People are simple. If texas which
just opened kills fewer people total and fewer people per million than NYC.
Theres no way people in texas don't look at this as a success.

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jakeogh
[https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/28/coronavirus...](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/28/coronavirus-
hype-biggest-political-hoax-in-history/)

~~~
mindslight
1\. Have a politicized society that is so dysfunctional that it is incapable
of coherently focusing on a shared problem.

2\. Downplay common sense individual actions like wearing masks, because it
would demonstrate lack of preparation

3\. Bail out large businesses quickly, throw individuals and small businesses
some scraps as a distraction.

4\. After gross shutdowns are effected, don't spend the effort to refine them
- eg reopening various small businesses that could operate hygienically.

5\. Reject fine-grained policy that would repudiate business-uber-alles, like
forcing new safety guidelines on essential industries.

6\. Get fatigued from the above, and write off everything that was attempted
as unnecessary waste doomed from the start. (thread article)

7\. Rationalize that nothing could be done, things just happen. The idea we
could do anything about it was a hoax. (your article)

8\. Repeat for next disaster.

We've basically given up, end of story. I keep trying to grasp the idea that
this is the societal death spiral taking hold, but I can't yet wrap my head
around it.

~~~
samcday
As an Aussie I grew up on a healthy diet of US exceptionalism propaganda. At
some point I came to the realization that the US is an empire in decline.

Now, I’m starting to think the US is already a failed state. I’m pretty
frightened to be living in this timeline. It’s like the collapse of Rome, but
with wifi, vape pens, memes and nuclear arsenals.

~~~
magicsmoke
Keep in mind that Rome collapsed over centuries, and as it did so many people
barely noticed it happened and lived out their lives like generations before
them in small farming communities. Even if the US collapses, there'll be vast
parts of the world like in Africa and India where it'll just be an interesting
international news tidbit with little impact on their actual lives.

As for someone living in Australia, you'll be fine in that corner of the
world. Why do you think so many billionaires are buying bunkers in New
Zealand?

~~~
def8cefe
>As for someone living in Australia, you'll be fine in that corner of the
world.

(While not a member) Australia relies on NATO. Without it they would exist at
the mercy of China. Without the US, NATO goes limp, especially in the naval
power department.

~~~
magicsmoke
Why would China wander over to Australia? China would probably look west into
the Indian ocean more than they would look east, because that's where their
oil comes from. They'd also have to get past Indonesia first, and frankly
Australia has had more foreign policy problems with Indonesia in the past than
with China. East Timor and illegal migrants come to mind.

Australia is as safe from a war in Eurasia as the Americas are. The events of
WW2 made that quite clear. Imperial Japan even at its greatest extent was only
able to make bombing runs on Australia's north coast. Frankly, there's nothing
really worth fighting over as far away as Australia is from the rest of the
world. Australia's key foreign policy objective is to play nice with the
global naval power. Not because it needs protection, but it needs to not get
locked out of the global shipping and trade network.

~~~
tiredyam
This whole argument is silly. War is dead. China will not conquer your land
but they will buy your corporates and leaders souls. Why did the brush fires
happen?

