
Ask HN: What are the leading causes of cancer in San Francisco? - sean_patel
I saw this story and was alarmed. Why are there so many incidences of cancer in San Francisco for a relatively small population?<p>http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ucsf.edu&#x2F;news&#x2F;2016&#x2F;11&#x2F;404931&#x2F;broad-new-partnership-launches-plan-reduce-cancer-san-francisco<p>Is it something to do with the old construction, or is it the air, or is it lifestyle? I was under the impression that most San Franciscans (including myself) lead an active healthy life(style).
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dave_sullivan
A few things:

Cancer is basically the most likely thing to kill you besides heart disease. A
physically active population will have less death by heart disease and thus
more by cancer (because something has to kill you). So perhaps there's just
less heart disease in SF.

They say things like "rates are soaring" without saying how much and if it's
different than national averages.

This article has very little substance and is basically stating the fact that
a lot of people get cancer. IIRC, any given person today has a 25% chance of
getting cancer in their lifetime.

So don't worry: if you exercise and eat right, cancer will eventually get you
wherever you live.

(I should acknowledge the obvious of some environments are literally
carcinogenic, so if you live in a coal mine, 19th century London, or modern
Beijing, there's more cause for concern)

For anyone looking to learn more about cancer and its history, the book The
Emperor of All Maladies is very good.

~~~
taneq
> Cancer is basically the most likely thing to kill you besides heart disease.
> A physically active population will have less death by heart disease and
> thus more by cancer (because something has to kill you). So perhaps there's
> just less heart disease in SF.

True, and I'd take it a step further: Cancer is one of the two fundamental
failure modes of the human body. (The other one being death by senescence,
where cells self-terminate as they reach the Hayflick limit - which they do in
order to reduce the chances of a cancerous mutation.)

~~~
Gibbon1
Counter wisdom though the incidence of some types of cancer peeks and then
falls with age. Testicular cancer is very pronounced the vast majority of
victims are young men.

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icegreentea
Because the story is useless. Story shows that cancer death rate in SF is
~160-200 per 100,000 depending on demographic. Overall US cancer death rate is
about 170 per 100,000 ([https://www.cancer.gov/about-
cancer/understanding/statistics](https://www.cancer.gov/about-
cancer/understanding/statistics)).

The "real" story is SF has a lower rate of death from heart disease (which is
the leading national killer) than usual. And for reference, heart disease and
cancer nationally are almost neck and neck
([http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-
death.htm](http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm))

So yeah, it's a useless story.

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lj3
According to SFHip[0], San Francisco's lung cancer cases per 100,000 is 49 and
dropping each year. Nation-wide, it's 62.4.

The linked article is light on stats and heavy on rhetoric. Maybe they're
using it to drum up funding?

[0]:
[http://www.sfhip.org/index.php?module=Indicators&controller=...](http://www.sfhip.org/index.php?module=Indicators&controller=index&action=view&indicatorId=303&localeId=275)

------
Gibbon1
I tried skimming the article closely. It doesn't seem to say that there is
anything particularly unusual about San Francisco cancer rates. Since it's
UCSF I assume the article is the hospital doing its primary job of protecting
the residents of it's host city.

Risk factors, San Francisco is post industrial city with a significant number
of minorities, many foreign born.

Which brings up liver cancer. My understanding is liver cancer is highly
correlated with hepatitis B and C. A lot of South American and Asian emigrants
have been exposed to hepatitis B in their native countries. And they are thus
at higher risk. Hepatitis C is common among IV drug users. SF has a long
standing problem with IV drug use[1].

Also long standing population of heavy drinkers which also is associated with
cancers of various types.

Possible there is a legacy population of people exposed to industrial
carcinogens. And maybe some legacy carcinogens. Scuttlebutt is people living
close to the old unremediated industrial areas have more health problems.
Course they also tend to be poor which is a risk factor itself.

[1] Once found five 20 something white guys in suits passed out on Natoma
Street at three in the afternoon. Two in front of my door and three farther
down the block.

~~~
sean_patel
> Once found five 20 something white guys in suits passed out on Natoma Street
> at three in the afternoon.

Wow. Castro? That's pretty crazy.

~~~
Gibbon1
South of market. Guys looked totally like any other guys in suits you see in
the Financial district.

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sjg007
This is about increasing awareness and reducing the mortality rate by
screening at risk groups that have traditionally lacked access to
comprehensive care. It's not about rising cancer rates in general that aren't
otherwise explained.

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stevebmark
Why would anyone on Hacker News know the answer to this question?

~~~
foota
There's a lot of people on hacker news with a lot of strange knowledge.

~~~
sean_patel
> There's a lot of people on hacker news with a lot of strange knowledge.

Exactly! And the comments speak for themselves.

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happycodework
[https://np.reddit.com/r/AskScienceDiscussion/comments/59otfy...](https://np.reddit.com/r/AskScienceDiscussion/comments/59otfy/small_correllation_between_vaxx_rate_and_breast/)

I could use another brogrammer to verify some of what I'm seeing. I expected I
could just mention this to a researcher and be done, but I'm being attacked
for mentioning possibilities.

There was a catalyst in 1975 when vaxx rates doubled and kept doubling every 5
years, the graphs reflect that, imho. Other countries data should confirm or
deny.

~~~
wavefunction
I downvoted you for using 'brogrammer' and for pushing bunk science.

Correlation Z: Rates of cancer have increased at the same time as the number
of articles claiming vaccines cause autism have increased.

