
Optimal Time-Inconsistent Beliefs: Misplanning, Procrastination, and Commitment [pdf] - jonbaer
https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/TimeInconsistentBeliefs_0.pdf
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hippich
", people tend to postpone work because they hold overoptimistic beliefs about
the ease of the task" \- this is certainly not the case for me when I
procrastinate. Usually, I procrastinate when mentally exhausted, not seeing a
clear picture of how to achieve the end goal, not being extrinsically
motivated about the end result, depression. And most of the time it is a
combination of these, not just one. In fact, easily completable tasks are
something I fall back onto during procrastination (that's how I can keep my
kitchen sink clean)

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makmanalp
To be fair, they're talking about Kahneman's '79 research and then talking
about how they build on top of that. I guess yours maybe could be modeled as
the inverse planning fallacy - you hold over-pessimistic beliefs about the
ease of the task. This happens to me too: e.g. when I don't call the bank to
do something because I think I'm going to be on the phone for forever, and
when I finally get around to doing it it really only takes 5. So perhaps the
model could accommodate that, but I'll admit to having skimmed a bit and
closed the page. I agree with your sentiment though!

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x220
Can you post a citation to "Kahneman's '79 research"? I really want to read
that stuff since it sounds useful for me.

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parhurs
From the linked paper: Kahneman, D, and A Tversky. 1979. “Intuitive
prediction: Biases and corrective procedures.” TIMS Studies in Management
Science 12, 313–27.

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boogiewoogie
Okay how many saw Mansplaining?

