
The End of the War on Drugs and the Emergence of the Cannabis Industry - carlchenet
http://techcrunch.com/2015/05/04/the-end-of-the-war-on-drugs-and-the-emergence-of-the-venture-backed-cannabis-industry/
======
rayiner
The war on drugs is not ending. Marijuana is the only thing people want to
legalize. 80-90% want to keep everything else illegal. That is a problem.
Legalized marijuana will surely cause cops to ease up on suburban white kids,
but that'll remove the exigency from the injustice that continues to play out
in other parts of the system.

~~~
Nursie
I can see this going one of two ways.

Optimistic - people in mainstream society realise cannabis is not destroying
society and slowly come to appreciate that alcohol is not the only drug, and
that drugs (and drug users) aren't the devil. The edifice comes tumbling down
and we start looking at drug policy (and our massive drug-related budget) in
terms of harm reduction.

Pessimistic - the largest group of drug users is brought into the fold of the
mainstream. The idea of 'hard' and 'soft' drugs is reinforced and users of
anything other than cannabis and alcohol are pushed even further into the
category of 'other'. Drug-war resources used against cannabis are diverted
into continuing to make everything worse for everyone when it comes to all
other drugs. Central and South America and West Africa continue to get torn
apart by cartels feeding off Europe and North America's insatiable appetite
for cocaine. Other parts of the world that have the raw materials for other
drugs (sassafras, poppies) go the same way (if they haven't already). NPS with
unknown health profiles continue to be churned out and consumed by the
kiloton.

Unfortunately I think the pessimists probably have the right of this one for
the next several years at least.

~~~
saturdaysaint
I'm an optimist. The success of cannabis gives a playbook for successful
liberalization: find good medical uses, push hard to allow more research, show
that society can handle prescription access, educate, legalize. This is
already starting with MDMA and psychedelics.

In some ways, it's funny that in our hyper-medicated age, that a stimulant and
a heavy painkiller are still unspeakably taboo. I mean, every graduate school
and Ivy League college in our country is awash with powerful stimulants
(Adderall). It wouldn't surprise me if a properly controlled/dosed drug with
coca extract in it could be more effective than amphetamines for attention
issues. I never want to touch heroin, but with the abuse of prescription
painkillers, criminalizing usage of one drug (and thus funding criminal
networks) seems like a worse and worse strategy.

~~~
maxerickson
It's a meaningless anecdote, but a recent newsworthy drug bust around here was
a prescription pill ring (Buprenorphine/Suboxone). So there is also criminal
distribution of prescription painkillers.

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kazinator
To test whether the war on drugs has ended, try starting a cottage industry
around cocaine production. Doh!

All that is happening, essentially, is that marijuana is being reclassified as
a new form of alcohol. That makes it okay with conservatives, who are okay
with alcohol, by and large.

So, nothing is really changing.

The WOD will end when you can legally get any substance you want. Including
any legitimate pharmaceutical, without a damned prescription.

~~~
rdudek
Don't forget the taxes part! Conservatives are pretty OK taxing it.

------
VeejayRampay
From my European perspective, the equation looks simple:

In the U.S., money talks. And it's loud. If the figures showing up from the
states of Washington and Colorado (there are others) are good and they mean
people are making boatloads of cash with that crop, legalization will spread
like wildfire. It is one of the good aspects of a more deregulated market
after all.

~~~
chimeracoder
> From my European perspective, the equation looks simple: In the U.S., money
> talks.

This is true literally everywhere in the world. Some places may be more up
front about it and others may try to hide it more, but in the end, everyone is
subject to the same constraints of economics.

~~~
VeejayRampay
It is indeed true of pretty much everywhere in the world. But the people in
the United States have, in my opinion and understanding of the world, a more
natural tendency towards cold mercantilism where the personal feelings don't
take precedence over good business models and potential financial gain. It is
a trait that I believe is true of many protestant-based, trading-infused
societies (like the UK, the Netherlands and others).

That should have read: "Money talks everywhere, but even more so in the U.S".

------
saturdaysaint
Funny, it's practically an old hippy canard that there wouldn't be much money
to be made if it were legal. I'm sure that there's money to be made somewhere,
but this is a pretty easy plant to grow/cultivate if it's ever legal to have a
few plants in your backyard - far easier than brewing your own beer.

My guess is that the money will go into building a few solid brands. I
wouldn't be surprised if edibles were the focus here, too - they're much
easier to make at scale than by individuals, a lot of people probably prefer
eating to smoking, and they provide a lot of opportunity for brand
differentiation.

~~~
vidarh
I've never used cannabis, and I certainly couldn't be bothered to grow it even
if it was legal. Nor would I be interested in smoking. But I might try it in
edible form if only just to have experienced it.

(And this is not down to lack of access - despite never having tried cannabis,
I'd have no problem getting hold of some today if I suddenly decided I had to
try it, which shows just how much of a total failure criminalisation of it has
been)

I definitively agree with you. There'll be plenty of people who'll want to
grow their own, but also plenty of people like me or somewhat more interested,
that'd be interesting in trying or indulging in it now and again, but who's
not interested in tending for a plant (just like I'm not growing my own
vegetables...), not interested in smoking, and not interested enough to pay
attention to how to find a good quality product, who'd prefer to be able to
just recognise a large brand that'd be a sign of _sufficient_ quality and
trust.

For that kind of market segment price matters less than recognition - I'd
happily pay a "not having to spend time researching what to look for on the
internet" premium of 100% or more if I at some point decide to try, the same
way I drink alcohol so rarely that when/if I do I stick to a handful of well
known brands that I'm comfortable with.

~~~
saturdaysaint
"just like I'm not growing my own vegetables..."

This keeps getting brought up, and I'm not really saying there's not a good
business here, but the economics are vastly different. A tomato plant might
save you $3 and provide you with a meal or two. If states aim to keep prices
near current street prices, a good harvest from a few plants could provide
north of $500 worth of value for a minimal outlay of money (quite possibly
nothing) and little work.

------
kephra
I've heard rumors, that Monsanto is behind the legalization of marijuana,
planing to sell seeds, fertilizers and herbicides.

Is there any truth behind this rumor?

~~~
Nursie
It would not surprise me if many large agri-tech companies had plans for
if/when it becomes fully legal from production to consumption in more places.

However I have definitely heard lots of conspiracy-theory type stuff coming
from the more crunchy end of the pro-pot spectrum. Some of them even actively
resist legalisation because they don't want 'corporations' involved in the
trade.

Personally, I think the greater virtue is getting rid of our terrible laws and
war on drugs, we can sort out marketplace ethics later.

~~~
EiZei
It amazes me that some people prefer the DEA and for-profit prisons to
corporations. At least Monsanto doesn't show up in your home unannounced in
the middle of the night and shoot your dog.

~~~
sageabilly
Not unless you're growing corn without a license.

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pinaceae
so this means that the previous generation of distributors, african-americans
who all went to jail, were simply ahead of their times.

now that the whites have changed the rules, all big entrepreneurs in this area
are white. note also which states have started this.

------
pmlnr
2015 - also known as After Ford 107
[http://www.huxley.net/soma/somaquote.html](http://www.huxley.net/soma/somaquote.html)

~~~
kolbe
I hate to be the one to break this to you, but the US has been going the way
of BNW for a long time. This whole time we've been scared of 1984 being
imposed on us that we've let BNW naturally creep in.

