
Which Areas Will Be Flooded with Homes Once Boomers Start Leaving Them? - SQL2219
https://www.zillow.com/research/silver-tsunami-inventory-boomers-24933/
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carrozo
_It seems likely that, in the coming two decades, the construction industry
will need to place a greater focus on updating existing properties, in
addition to simply building new homes._

Remodelling existing stock seems like an enormous opportunity for construction
tech.

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smhinsey
The elephant in the room here is that the lifespan of a lot of recently built
houses is not necessarily what we might expect. A lot of these houses will
turn out to have problems that will effectively “total” them as they age.
There are a lot of McMansions out there that simply have no real long term
future.

~~~
kevinyun
Could you expand on some of these points? For example, has there been new
construction material of which the long-term effects are unknown, or has there
been new architectural design methods?

Or were you saying that as a blanketed statement of opinion

~~~
manicdee
Not the new materials but the new design and construction methods. The decades
of shaving margins have had their toll to the point where apartment complexes
are not even making it out of the warranty period before developing major
structural flaws.

There is also, for example, the fascination with butterfly or hipped roofs
(where the main gutters are in the middle of the roof instead of the edges),
which will cause problems any time the rainfall exceeds the capacity of the
gutters and down pipes. Given we are heading into more extreme weather with
shorter, heavier downpours, it seems to me that hip and butterfly roofs are a
bad idea.

I have seen a few houses condemned because of water damage due to eg: one
builder using a three inch deep gutter instead of the specified six inch
gutter. Saving a few dollars at the cost of destroying the value of the
property.

Cutting corners and an increasing reliance on industry “self regulation” means
that housing built in the last decade here in Australia is only temporary.

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cletus
Florida is likely in for a double-whammy with climate change compounding with
the Silver Tsunami.

I wouldn't want to own property in Florida in the long term.

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Analemma_
I keep saying that once rise to the point where the problem is undeniable,
Floridians will demand— and probably get— a colossal bailout on the taxpayers’
dime for their property, either in the form of some megaengineering project to
hold back the ocean or just forcing the government to buy their homes, because
Florida is a swing state with a large number of crucial electoral votes and
neither major party can blow them off.

~~~
ohazi
It's literally not possible to hold back the ocean in Florida. The bedrock is
porous.

~~~
Analemma_
Yes, but that doesn’t mean we’re not going to spend billions of dollars
trying. Voters don’t like to be told “there’s no fix”; they’ll gravitate
toward any politician who promises to preserve their property values,
especially with other people’s money.

~~~
ohazi
_sigh_

You're not wrong...

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ggm
An example of "worth" (as in net worth) which has potential to simply
evaporate. Individually disastrous for families assuming intergenerational
wealth was safe in the parents house, fiscally disastrous because the economy
will be in shrinkage as it was in the sub prime, because of excess housing
stocks causing a decline in construction spend, and declining values forcing
more people into drawdown on capital, or a retreat from spending. Under
employment hits. Deflation isn't fun.

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nine_zeros
A lot of this also appears to be visible in the northeast. Entire towns
greying so rapidly that it's hard to find any services at all already. I
wonder what will happen with so many houses being dumped on the market.

~~~
lotsofpulp
Same thing that happens to any dying town. Decrease in property values and
decrease in quality of life.

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itronitron
I expect this will hit every city differently as a lot depends on what the
younger generations can afford relative to what the median price of boomer
housing is in the area.

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BXLE_1-1-BitIs1
A substantial portion of retiree houses will come onto the market as elderly
move into care homes, sometimes several years before they pass away. The price
houses sell for depends on who will be buying _ either other retirees or local
employed people, who may enjoy opportunities to upgrade. As usual housing
prices depend on either local incomes or outside cash.

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chmaynard
Corporate-sponsored research is always suspect. Why is this an important
research topic? Is the study notable or significant compared to other studies
in this field? Just asking.

~~~
Aeolun
Is this actual research? Or is it just Zillow extrapolating from data they
already have to drive traffic?

~~~
chmaynard
Well, the URL contains the word "research", so I assume Zillow considers this
to be a research report.

"I don’t think industry really does very much research. They come up with an
idea and they try to sell it. If it was a good idea, maybe they will make
money. Even if it was a bad idea, if they have good marketing people, they
might still make money and we never know..."

Héctor Garcia-Molina, 1953–2019

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perspective1
LOL. The article completely ignores that today's 40-somethings will be
60-something 20 years from now.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_State...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_States#/media/File:Uspop.svg)

edit: Seeing the flood of downvotes I'll give some data. Home ownership
increases with age. 60+ers leaving their homes from death, poor health or
inconvenience will be supplemented by today's 40+ers over the next 20 years.
[https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2018/08/homeownership...](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2018/08/homeownership-
by-age.html) . We were in the same situation 20 years ago, 21 years ago, 22
years ago, and so on.

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Spooky23
It’s very different. I’m fortunate to be in a good place from a retirement
perspective, but at this point my parents had made a 10x return on their home
that they purchased in late 70s NYC, plus a legacy pension, plus a retirement
healthcare.

Most of the housing wealth will be eaten up by health costs. With families
moving away and people retiring to alternate locales, property wealth will be
seized and sold off by the county to pay for Medicaid.

Many of the folks in our field are doing great, but tech is boom/bust and
people are making way too much money now.

~~~
matheweis
> Most of the housing wealth will be eaten up by health costs

Unless the home is somehow stripped down or otherwise damaged, the intrinsic
value of the housing wealth will not change; it just is owned by a different
entity.

