

Elon Musk: Next Six Months Crucial to Tesla's future - ca98am79
http://www.technologyreview.com/view/428882/elon-musk-next-six-months-crucial-to-teslas/?ref=rss

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pwny
Elon Musk, I forbid you to let Tesla fail before I can afford to buy a model
S.

~~~
atae
If he knows it's going to fail, he should consider putting a death ray on a
militarized Model S with bullet proof windows. Maybe with optional retractable
VTOL (Tesla's last patent) side lifters. He could probably sell it to the US
government and save Tesla.

~~~
MartinCron
I'm sure that Bruce Wayne would buy one, maybe two.

~~~
scoot
I thought the minimum order to disguise the purchase was 10,000?

~~~
scoot
(Obscure _Batman Begins_ reference)

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atae
What's stopping Elon Musk from working with Shai Agassi at Better Place?
Doesn't Shai have an open offer for a $3-4 billion contract for a US automaker
to produce an electric car that works in their battery-swapping station
network?

I realize the offer is to a major US automaker which is much different but it
just seems like a brilliant billionaire like Elon Musk and an amazing
entrepreneur like Shai Agassi (who has raised $900MM+) could pull it off.

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tocomment
Here's a creative idea to partially solve the charging problem. Have people
buy the fast chargers for their homes, and then get listed in a database where
people could stop by and pay for a charge on their travels. It would be like
AirBnB but for charging electric cars.

~~~
schiffern
Why would I buy a fast-charger for my home? It will never pay for itself in
fees, and you don't need one at home – overnight charging meets essentially
everyone's needs in that case.

Edit: just to be clear, I support people sharing their chargers. But _fast
charging_ is overkill.

~~~
CamperBob2
IMO, the whole idea of electric vehicles is a waste of time unless the
government (or at least a dominant market player) steps in and standardizes
battery sizes for fast replacement at existing service stations. It should
take _less_ time to recharge an EV than it does to refill a gasoline tank, not
_more_.

Anyone who has ever exchanged a propane cylinder for their backyard barbecue
should understand why this is the only conceivable way to make electric
vehicles work. I can't begin to imagine why I'm the only person who actually
thinks that way.

~~~
ta12121
Most people don't drive their cars 24/7. Even on road trips it's more like 12
or 18 hours.

Once battery capacities reach the point where you only have to charge it at
night for a full day's drive, you've solved the problem and you don't need to
swap.

And, while the price tag is high, the 300 mile claimed range of the highest
trim Model S gets a substantial part of the way to that standard.

~~~
CamperBob2
_Once battery capacities reach the point where you only have to charge it at
night for a full day's drive, you've solved the problem and you don't need to
swap._

Perhaps that's true... once batteries get about 2x as good as they are now,
owners of cars like the Tesla won't have to worry so much about whether there
will be power available at their destination.

My impression is that the next 2x improvement in battery tech is pretty far
over the horizon, though. Plus, we simply do not have the grid capacity to
replace most Americans' automobiles with rechargeable EVs. Not even by
charging them at night. Once 80% of the houses in your neighborhood plug in an
8-kw load at night, this inconvenient truth will become obvious enough.

Exchangeable batteries could be charged anywhere, anytime, not just where and
when they are needed. That's a big win regardless of what happens with the
core technology of power storage.

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andyl
I appreciate Musk's honesty. I've seen many critical situations where leaders
fudge to make things seem more stable than they are. I'm rooting for Tesla's
success.

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davidp
I think he may have just tanked his chances. People buying cars in that price
range 1) expect to have mechanical service available for the foreseeable
future, and 2) don't like to be associated with losers. You don't want to drop
$90k on a cool new car and then six months later have your friends roll their
eyes or pity you when you roll up at the party.

~~~
manaskarekar
Are you familiar with the Tesla strategy mentioned by him in a some interview?

Their goals are:

\- High price low volume car.

\- Medium price medium volume car.

\- Low price high volume car.

They seem to be on their way.

Also the article claims he said 'It's going to be tough.' He has always been
pretty straightforward with that. Check out any of his interviews.

Check out his interview after Falcon 1 failed
<http://www.wired.com/science/space/news/2008/08/musk_qa>

An excerpt from that:

 _"Wired.com: At the end of the day you're still zero for three; you have so
far failed to put a rocket into orbit.

Musk: We haven't gotten into orbit, true, but we've made considerable
progress. If it's an all-or-nothing proposition then we've failed. But it's
not all or nothing. We must get to orbit eventually, and we will. It might
take us one, two or three more tries, but we will. We will make it work.

Wired.com: How do you maintain your optimism?

Musk: Do I sound optimistic?

Wired.com: Yeah, you always do.

Musk: Optimism, pessimism, fuck that; we're going to make it happen. As God is
my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work."_

~~~
Retric
Considering the next 2 launches where successful I think he had reasonable
expectations at the time. As CEO your in a strange place of needing to be
advertise and create a positive image without creating unrealistic
expectations so people trust what you say in six months.

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startupfounder
This is the issue: charging times & price point.

To sell units beyond their first adopters they need to address key issues with
electric cars (and I am all for EVs). What they need to do is license their
technology to Ford and GM to get mass market appeal and to help build/develop
EVs in the $20k range. As the article states, "It projects selling 20,000 cars
next year, which is a relatively high number among luxury brands."

This is really what is going to happen: the will be acquired by a larger
brand.

~~~
at-fates-hands
"It projects selling 20,000 cars next year, which is a relatively high number
among luxury brands."

Actually this is quite low. BMW sells around 110K units a year in the US alone
- <http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html>

Although I do agree the best bet for the survival of the technology is to get
bought by a larger brand.

~~~
cynicalkane
BMW has 10 different models, and their best-seller--the 3 series--has a
considerably lower base price than the Model S.

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nhebb
> _The base price is just under $50,000 after factoring in a $7,500 tax
> credit. But models with a large enough battery to allow for a 300 mile range
> will be priced at $87,900 after the tax credit._

Great. So American taxpayers are essentially subsidizing luxury automobiles.

~~~
zach
We should subsidize things that are already affordable instead? Um...

~~~
aggronn
Or rather we should subsidize things that need to be affordable. Luxury cars
are explicitly _not_ meant to be affordable, so his point stands. What both of
you have missed is the actual reason for subsidy, which is the fuel
efficiency.

~~~
nhebb
I can't speak for others, but I didn't miss the fuel efficiency aspect. If
electric automobiles are ever going to make a significant environmental
impact, they will need to priced for the masses.

~~~
schiffern
You do know that that's _exactly_ Tesla Motors' stated goal, right?

[http://elonmusktesla.wordpress.com/2012/07/16/truly-
affordab...](http://elonmusktesla.wordpress.com/2012/07/16/truly-affordable-
tesla-electric-sedan-to-launch-in-2015/)

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kylecordes
It seems to me that the critical period for persuading people to buy them, is
down the metaphorical road a bit. At the moment it appears from their web site
that they are still selling "reservations". There is a nice video on their web
site celebrating delivery of some cars - which I think implies they aren't
just handing them over to willing buyers yet.

The hard part starts when all that is past: when they build enough cars to
have them sitting at dealerships, either being bought or not.

(For that matter, if they really want revenue, why not keep churning out the
Roadster? Surely there would be a few thousand more people willing and able to
buy one.)

~~~
Synthetase
Demand is not an issue. There were 12,200 reservations as of July. That's
enough to keep busy for the rest this year and into Q2 of next year. If demand
were truly an issue, we would see some sort of advertising spend. When was the
last time you saw a Tesla TV commercial?

The next six months are critical because it determines whether or not Tesla
can be a profitable venture. Can they make a profit with full production? If
they have any unforeseen expenditures they are screwed. If there are any
recalls, they are screwed. However, I am pretty confident Tesla will be able
to pull through given their track record.

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ttunguz
The big challenge no one speaks about is the auto workers' unions which will
change the cost structure to produce these cars. This cost increase is coming
in the next few years.

~~~
jwooden
I disagree, although it may be potentially a problem in the future. It seems
like Tesla however isn't using manufacturing techniques/processes that the
rest of the industry follows. Most of the assembly is done using advanced
robots, the cost increase seems to be the support and the development of these
robots.

The reason I appreciate tesla, is because it doesnt have all the legacy and
baggage a traditional car manufacturer has, and thus they have the ability to
try bold things. On top of it, they are doing it all in america.

~~~
andrewtbham
Most car manufacturers have production plants in the US. I live in Alabama
there are Mercedes, Honda and Hyundai plants. BMW is in South Carolina. Toyota
Prius is built in Mississippi.

The land and power are cheap, the wages are reasonable and there is not a lot
of union activity.

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racbart
I wouldn't buy a car if I expected the company might be dead in six months.
Who'll service my car then? This isn't a well-known and old brand with
independent service centers. Did Elon Musk just told me not to buy their cars?
Thanks for the tip.

~~~
pbreit
A fair concern but probably unwarranted since a larger company would snap it
up at some price. And then you might actually have better (more, at least)
service options.

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bubbleRefuge
Heard on NPR that batteries on EV's can only be charged around 500 times. This
came from that Berkley professor that was a global warming skeptic until the
recent conclusion of a research study -that he participated in- indicating
that most of global warming was caused by fuel burning. Of-coarse the study
was funded by the Koch brothers and proposed that the world move to natural
gas. It wouldn't surprise me if the Koch brothers have large investments in
natural gas. Does anyone know if the battery charge comment has any validity?

~~~
Retric
The electric cost of a charge is ~2$, and you get ~250 miles a charge x 500 =
125,000 miles for 1,000$. Assuming 3.5$/G gas + 30MPG + 125,000 miles costs
14,500$. That leaves ~13,500$ to pay for the next battery pack and the
overhead charging.

PS: The real issue is it's not a smooth transition, but if you assume the 2nd
battery pack is not worth it you get 250,000 miles including 1 replacement
pack.

~~~
beefman
The battery pack costs more than that, alas. The price may come down as the
scale of recycling (and hence, the amount recyclers can pay for used
batteries) goes up. The price per Wh for Li-ion has also been falling at a
fairly steady rate. And of course, gas prices may go up.

We should also consider the depreciation of components in a conventional car
that the electric drivetrain replaces. They should depreciate faster because
they are less efficient and must deal with the additional heat they dissipate.
They require an intake and exhaust system, complicated transmission, pumps,
valves, lubricants...

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lazyjones
They should launch in Europe earlier, we spend a lot more money on cars here,
have shorter daily routes (guessing!) and care a little more about fuel costs
(more expensive here).

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mgallivan
This might seem obnoxious but I'm sure Mr. Musk has a number of celebrity
acquaintances. Surely their help would put him well on his way to 20,000?

~~~
wmf
I suspect they're having no trouble selling cars; the only question is whether
they can manufacture the cars they've already sold.

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elchief
I work with a car dealer and he said that one cannot import a Tesla to Canada.
Anyone know why? Thx

~~~
colmvp
Are you sure about that? Seems like it is becoming possible.

[http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/canadian-pricing-
out...](http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/canadian-pricing-out-i-am-
tears)

Also: lol at the price. I get why it's that expensive (tariff, taxes) but wow,
I can't see them moving many.

~~~
elchief
Maybe he meant "at a reasonable price"

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akandiah
If gas prices do not rise, Telsa will be in trouble.

~~~
draggnar
Not necessarily. What Tesla is proposing is a better car. The Model S is
safer, more comfortable, and more practical. The demand is clearly there, at
this point it is a question of if Tesla can deliver.

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BigTuna
Ctrl-F "Friedman Unit"

0 results.

HN, I am disappoint.

