
OECD Says 14% of Jobs Will Disappear in Next 10 Years - joeyespo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mocc2P6wMYQ
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seibelj
It wouldn't surprise me if 14% of existing jobs disappear every 10 years. Pick
any 10 year window and the jobs at the beginning will be different than the
jobs at the end, and most of the the jobs that remain will have different
requirements.

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Teichopsia
Ill bite. What jobs have disappeared in the last ten, twenty and thirty years?

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jerrysievert
not OP, but off the top of my head:

* mainframe administrators

* cobol developers

* punchcard operators

* manufacturing (in the united states)

* car mechanics (huge decline as car quality has gone up)

* mining (in the united states)

* farmer

that's without thinking too deeply about it ... i could think of more if you
want. note that a lot of these are declines, as opposed to eliminations.

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docbrown
Manufacturing jobs may have become less in numbers but they are no way near
gone. So i’m not sure that really counts as a valid answer.

Same with mechanics. These jobs are not _gone_ but possibly shrunk in total #
of jobs. Quality may have gone up but so has complexity of repairs.

Now, farmers. Again, these jobs may have shrunk but the jobs are still there.
I could count on both hands of families I know living in proximity to me that
run family farms for business. You can drive 30 miles from me and go through
three towns that are maintained because of farm land.

edit: on mobile so didn’t see your decline != elimination note at first

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jerrysievert
> Manufacturing jobs may have become less in numbers but they are no way near
> gone. So i’m not sure that really counts as a valid answer.

so, a large shrinkage of jobs isn't a decline? if the definition of jobs
disappearing is the whole profession being eliminated then you'll never have
any jobs "disappear" ... there will always be artisans in any field: look at
blacksmiths for instance. so i'm not sure how these wouldn't be valid.

same goes for mechanics, and farmers. the number of jobs have shrunk - those
jobs have disappeared. for farmers it's due to an increase in factory farms
and labor saving devices, sure there are still farmers (and quite a few where
i live, where locally grown food is sought after), but for the most part those
jobs have disappeared.

unless we're operating on a different definition of "disappear"? if 100 people
have a job that is now being done by 25 people due to either decline of need
or mechanization, then those 75 jobs have disappeared.

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andrenth
We have also to consider how many currently nonexistent jobs will appear.

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dpflan
Serious question, but silly premise: Are kids playing with AR/VR
(unintentionally) preparing for future jobs?

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RickS
Yes. Absolutely. Not only that, but just living in accordance with their own
preferences prepares them for future jobs, since future jobs are second-order
effects of changing cultural preferences.

I didn't set out to work in software. I just did stuff that seemed fun on the
computer and the rest of the world agreed that this was a thing we wanted to
keep doing.

I'm a designer, and the rise of mobile devices as a replacement for the
computer is illustrative of these changes. There are roles in a modern design
team where "I don't know a damn thing about how desktops used to work – my
default way of thinking is how this would work on an iPhone" is a cognitive
feature as much as it's a shortcoming.

I expect this will be true of many things, AR/VR being one, mmorpg/highly-
online-third-space being another. I feel old for only caring about offline
singleplayer campaign. The next generation of game designers will mentally
default to fortnight's group interaction model. In this way, deeply
understanding fortnight etc is absolutely preparing kids for the future of not
only gaming, but document authoring, telepresence, and who the hell knows what
else.

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pesmhey
The unfortunate part about this is when a child isn’t allowed to follow their
inclinations, in effort to keep up with today’s preferences. Happens so often
and it’s super sad. But yeah, fortnite, it’s pretty much team activities in
the 21st century. People who’ve never had to perform complex tasks over the
internet just won’t get it.

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kaiwen1
My son (11) is inclined to play Fortnite over essentially all other activities
that occur indoors. Outdoors is still a world filled with unstructured fun,
but indoors if he's left to his own inclinations then he's playing Fortnite
(and to lesser degree Scrap Mechanic). We've decided to limit his gaming to
alternate weeks and then limit on-weeks to 2 hours per day, except weekends
which are unlimited. I have no idea if this is a good approach. As a parent
who doesn't game and cares about balance, this is quite a hard problem.

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pesmhey
I definitely played too much when I was in high school. It was a symptom of a
bigger problem though. I’d also crunch a lot of numbers trying to optimize my
characters’ stats, and that inclination definitely stuck with me - it’s
basically my job now to write code to crunch numbers for people.

Best of luck, friend; you’re right, it’s a hard problem.

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macando
Demand for Talent Converges on Critical Roles in the U.S., U.K.
[https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/demand-for-
talent...](https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/demand-for-talent-
converges-on-critical-roles-in-the-u-s-u-k/)

\- 49% of all job postings by S&P 100 companies in 2018 were for just 39
roles. The remaining 51% were for 872 other roles.

\- 41% of all job postings by FTSE 100 companies in 2018 were for just 20
roles. The remaining 59% were for 641 other roles.

\- The most competitive roles are in critical functions across IT, research
and development, marketing, sales and customer service.

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toyg
It’s easy to postulate that advertised vacancies largely belong to two macro
groups: scarcity-driven (IT, R&D) and churn-driven (sales, marketing, customer
services).

Many (most?) jobs are never advertised.

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microcolonel
What is the baseline? Don't a lot of jobs disappear in an average decade since
the industrial revolution?

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vpcs111fm
Well, another recession will come in next 10 years (as always, it's a
pattern), and 14% of people will be laid off. These are hardly an insight.

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patrickg_zill
Doesn't this argue against a large amount of immigration by the unskilled,
into those countries which are already at high levels of youth unemployment?

