
Shady Numbers and Bad Business: Inside the Esports Bubble - somebehemoth
https://kotaku.com/as-esports-grows-experts-fear-its-a-bubble-ready-to-po-1834982843
======
toofy
I think esports will take off once a modern popular game allows local
communities and neighborhoods to host what we used to do with lanparties.

Part of what helped propel traditional sports into ubiquity was the ability to
have a ball and play anywhere with anyone you choose which allowed schools to
build teams with practice fields and community leagues etc...

Modern games, at least as far as I can tell require you to connect to the IP
holders company’s servers and often don’t allow you to pick and choose
specifically who you play against which in turn makes it nearly impossible to
build leagues and do team scrimmages, team practices, local community leagues,
etc...

And the other major issue I see is the lack of quality spectator features in
games.

My friends had a LAN party a few months ago and we played some older game,
quake3osp(?) Its definitely old, but it seemed to have the kind of setup I
imagine it would take for a modern game to really become as prolific as
traditional sports. It had amazing spectator functions where you could jump
from player to player at will, it had the ability to host the server yourself,
you could trade players from the sideline onto your team at anytime, you could
pause the match, you could practice on any map you wanted, you could pick a
map and run around for an unlimited amount of time practicing, etc.. etc...

Modern games require too much interaction directly with the companies who
control the IP for them to ever really take off.

Could you imagine if neighborhood kids playing football didn’t have the
freedom to just run around the same field for hours and play against the same
other team for hours? And were required to only play when everything is
controlled by the Professional league who controls the nfl or mls branding? It
never would have flourished.

~~~
ben-schaaf
> It had amazing spectator functions where you could jump from player to
> player at will, it had the ability to host the server yourself, you could
> trade players from the sideline onto your team at anytime, you could pause
> the match, you could practice on any map you wanted, you could pick a map
> and run around for an unlimited amount of time practicing, etc.. etc...

Other than subbing in players, most source games have all of these features.
Not sure about Dota 2, but certainly CS:GO and TF2 have all those features
with a community that uses them.

~~~
toofy
Interesting, can you host your own servers with cs:go on your own lan and
allow other random players to connect and spectate the match? If so I’m
impressed and I need to check it out. The ability to swap players from
spectators would be an important one as well. But even without this, I’d still
be really interested.

~~~
AmericanChopper
> can you host your own servers

So the thing holding esports back is not enough barriers to entry?

~~~
jaziek
Needing explicit permission / cooperation from the developer of a game to run
a tournament is more of a barrier to entry than needing to host a server.

~~~
AmericanChopper
I can’t think of a single popular online multiplayer game where I would need
permission or cooperation from the developer to operate a tournament with my
friends/local community...

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kibwen
The article ends up burying several important ledes: that whole companies are
built around inflating livestream viewership numbers, and that popular
streamers are threatening to slowly gut the competitive esports scene. For the
latter, note the perverse incentives: Twitch streamers famously lose so many
subscribers to even a day away from their stream (or, heaven forbid, a whole
weekend) that the amount of money needed to entice them to spend days at a
time traveling to attend tournaments leads to either ludicrous and
unsustainable prize pots or a competitive scene where, ironically, all the
best players decide not to compete because they would lose money by doing so
(especially ironic considering that they likely became popular by competing in
the first place).

~~~
meruru
>Twitch streamers famously lose so many subscribers to even a day away from
their stream

Are you saying people will unsubscribe from Twitch channels because it didn't
post a video for a day? That sounds crazy. Why does it happen?

~~~
Shoop
Yes. Ninja loses 15,000 subs every day he doesn't stream [0] (The linked
article is a super interesting profile -- definitely recommend it).

[0]
[http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/24710688/fortnit...](http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/24710688/fortnite-
legend-ninja-living-stream)

~~~
whymauri
This is outdated information. He was losing subscribers because the bulk of
his subscriptions in 2018 came from Amazon Prime, which were (maybe still
are?) not automatically renewable. His numbers peaked after a stream with
Drake in March of 2018. His attrition was from people forgetting to re-
activate their complementary Amazon Prime subscriptions. In fact, the people
who actually pay out-of-pocket for a 'tier 1' was estimated to be around
15,000. There's a cohort of unaccounted for 'hidden' subscriptions that are
impossible to categorize, but I guess my point here is that the attrition was
more of an entertainment bubble bursting over a couple months than a causal
result of a break.

Amazon Prime subscribers are '5 seconds of fame' subscribers. His core
audience has stabilized to pre-Drake numbers as of December, around 5-6k tier
1 subscribers. Note, subscriptions on Twitch are different from 'follows.'
Subscriptions have direct monetary value and follows are indirectly valuable
metrics (analogous to subscriptions on YouTube).

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someexgamedev
Often viewers are incentivized to watch the tournament, by being offered
exclusive cosmetic items in game or some premium currency for the game. This
makes the view counts artificially inflated by people just looking for the
handout. But the esports coordinator gets to flex the big viewer number as if
it were organic.

Also esports competitors skew young because league participation means you are
taking 3-6 months off work to earn below minimum wage. These young players are
often delaying college educations to compete. You may mistake their hunger for
competitive spirit, but they're actually just hungry. Watch their streams in
the off-season and listen to them dread the return to the "gaming house" and
its frequency of ramen meals.

~~~
forrestthewoods
Professional sports do tons of promotions all the time. Bobble head night!
Deeply discounted multi-game packs. Twice a year the Mariners do “bark at the
park” and you can take your dog into the stadium. It’s great fun.

~~~
Semaphor
That's different though because you actually have to go and pay the entrance
fee. With esports you can just keep the stream running in the background, you
can usually even mute it.

The Elder Scrolls Legends (TESL) had "drops", watching streamers play the game
would give you in-game benefits. To the surprise of nobody, even small
streamers (as long as they promised to host another TESL streamer afterward)
had hundreds of viewers. Very, very quiet viewers who would not write in chat
even once. Rebroadcasts became a thing with the biggest TESL streamer simply
showing the same once recorded game-play over and over again. Because no one
had to make any effort or pay to _watch_ the stream.

~~~
de_watcher
There is also a very similar thing that we have in sports: betting.

Independent sites exist for esports betting. In Dota 2 there is also betting
on pro games with the in-game shards that are earned only by playing (if the
player is subscribed to this program with a fixed fee).

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throwaway38383E
I'm an investor in an Esports organisation that some of you may have heard of,
however I no longer have anything to do with it and am in the process of
selling my shares to the other investors. The reason has nothing to do with
profit but morality, in my opinion this industry is nothing but the
exploitation of some of the more vulnerable people in our society.

~~~
vvdcect
Talk to a journalist or send over any evidence you have of the said
exploitation.

[https://www.theguardian.com/securedrop](https://www.theguardian.com/securedrop)
[https://www.nytimes.com/tips](https://www.nytimes.com/tips)

------
scassidy
It seems to me like there's a mismatch between the traditional sports business
model and esports. E-sports may not end up looking like the NFL. It could just
be individuals with huge followings. Instead of teams that pay for housing and
training and salaries like the NFL, esports teams will just have
administrative staff and not much else.

~~~
majani
There are a lot of prolific people in esports that argue the same, that
esports should be a grassroots, fan-driven thing, rather than the sponsor-
driven model

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xkfm
I wonder if the bubble is mostly an issue with franchising coming out of Acti-
Blizzard and Riot Games? The CGS (championship gaming series, mentioned in
article) crushed CS in North America and it didn't pick back up until CS:GO
came out. It was also franchised.

Population density/internet quality may have something to do with it as well.
Europe and South Korea seem to have stronger esports scenes for just about
every game. The players from those regions tend to be better, and they have
more tournaments located there.

~~~
xemdetia
In that aspect I wouldn't consider it to be a bubble, but just a subsidized
product. What I think is silly is that LAN tournaments that used to be a
natural extension of other events to reduce overall costs have turned into the
same scheme as boxing/wrestling promotions. The game publisher's investments
really go all the way back to the fact that the traditional tournament scenes
from back in the day (kespa, wcg, etc) didn't kick anything back up to the
developers and could keep ticket sales/sponsorship costs. Now they subsidize
that market so they have some aspect of control and to also get their piece
through various monetization schemes.

The reason why I suggest it's similar to boxing/wrestling is that really all
you need to get into the market and trying to create an event is charisma,
connections, and time to pull off a single event. It's not like there is an
overarching master event planner for all events and leagues, it's a much more
loose market and you may be able to throw a few big promotions a year. It's
not too different than putting on an industry event like a home show, IT expo,
or any other kind of weird infrequent event. Since the actual profits for
those kind of events are slim at best people cut corners and be exploitative
in all sorts of fun ways.

The question is always just going to be when are the subsidies/sponsorships
are going to stop. A cynical part of me feels like there are a lot of people
on the inside of corporations writing sponsorship checks are driven by people
who are fans of esports as well- just the same as people who write checks for
golfers or NASCAR.

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socrates1998
>Esports diehards spent $5.00 each last year on esports, according to NewZoo,
with mid-level fans generally spending half of that.

Ouch. That's nothing.

~~~
wallace_f
The way that is written, it really sounds misleading to me.

Dota2's $25+ million prize pools are virtually entitely crowdfunded from the
fans. Yesterday, a commonplace tournament wrapped up giving the winners $300K
and a new Mercedes.

The article mentions Esports viewership is about to surpass pro sports, yet
pro sports have massive government funding and support from elementary school
up through stadium construction. They are further entrenched in monopolistic
competition through cable TV and regulatory laws. So then is esports really
the artificial bubble industry, and not pro sports?

Further, Esports has been linked with positive externalities such as cognitive
benefits--high IQ development--while some of the pro sports are literally the
opposite, being linked with CTE and other neurological destruction. Shouldn't
public funding change, then?

~~~
munchbunny
It's probably not a bubble, but also I don't accept the argument that esports
are better. Excluding football and boxing (brain trauma), I haven't seen
anyone destroy their careers over really enjoying playing physical sports. I
do, however, know plenty of classmates and younger kids who are addicted to
games like Dota or League of Legends, both of which are staple esports games.

If I had to choose a sport for my kid to have delusions of being able to go
professional, I wouldn't pick esports, despite myself playing many of those
games.

The intelligence argument is weak at best. Among other things linked with an
increase in intelligence: a good night's rest and regular physical exercise. I
will give you the hand eye coordination point though.

Ultimately, esports should be treated as exactly what pro (physical) sports
are: entertainment, best in moderation.

~~~
humanrebar
> I haven't seen anyone destroy their careers over really enjoying playing
> physical sports.

If you blow out your knees before the age of 22 due to playing competitive
team sports, you're probably not working on your feet for a living.

~~~
Libre___
If you get carpal tunnel in your twenties your career will likely be affected
as well

~~~
pferde
Any sport ("e-" or not), playing professionally on a high level, will put
immense strain on your body and mind. Pick your poison.

~~~
tatami
Not just sports, other careers like musicians suffer from the same.

------
BearsAreCool
I've had a long time interest in gaming, getting into computers due to it like
I imagine many of you guys did. I also do have a fair amount of interest in
esports, having been involved in a competitive scene half a decade ago and
having watched a good number of esport tournament. However, it seems that the
recent surge in esports is insanity. My main concern is how it is viewed by
many, especially children, to be an easy and profitable career path. With
survivorship bias we "gamers" regularly see individuals who just spent more
time gaming winding up making millions every year, and that is a highly
appealing dream. At least with the traditional far fetched dream of being a
pro soccer player significant work had to be put into training, but that
really isn't needed for gaming as gaming was designed to be fun and addictive
from start to finish.

~~~
jwagenet
I disagree. Kids dreaming of becoming a professional gamer is no different
than the aspirations to become a pro athlete over the last few decades. I went
to schools with far too many pro baseball or pro football hopefuls. Kids train
their asses off to barely play college ball.

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madrox
I've been following this pretty closely over the last year. Gaming is a hits
driven business, and the last couple AAA titles to come out were DOA.
Viewership is either being questioned or outright down everywhere. Esports
numbers will be a little stickier overall because those are your most
passionate players, but the audience isn't growing. To grow the audience
interested in esports, you need more esports-ready games that aren't just
cannibalizing the audience of other esports games.

I suspect this may be one of the reasons why Nate Nanzer is headed to Epic. If
esports is in a bubble, then the best way to head it off is to boost
Fortnite's ailing competitive scene to draw new audiences. All games should
see a halo effect if Fortnite can start drawing the kinds of interest OWL has
in the last year.

~~~
majani
Problem is Fortnite really isn't that watchable on a competitive level.
Following a 100 player deathmatch on a third-person shooter is cumbersome to
say the least.

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challenger22
>As it turns out, it was a little too huge. According to Dot Esports, one
commentator for the first-person shooter Quake received a $300,000 salary in
exchange for live commentary that was poorly received. Counter-Strike players
received a reported $2,500 a month plus housing in Marina Del Rey. That added
up to about $1.8 million in salaries per year. “I know from firsthand
experience running a team that a lot of these teams have never even made that
much in revenue,” Fields said.

E-sports is a loss-leader for the video game industry. Duh.

~~~
majani
That would make sense if the game companies were the ones sponsoring the
teams, but they only support esports in small ways.

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dfxm12
New "sports leagues" have growing pains (as do most new businesses). The AAF
shuttered pretty quickly. Vince McMahon is planning on losing money for _at
least_ 5 years with the new XFL. Is "bubble" really the right word for this
situation?

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jimbob45
Video games and sports leagues should focus on getting leagues where everyone
can participate, not the select few who burn away 10s of hours a day no-lifing
the stuff. Such people are one-dimensional, uninteresting, and crowd out the
space for interesting people. Instead, cap the prize money and allow all teams
in your league under the same rules, a sort of massive Pro/Am league.

This might sound too radical but League of Legends already does this with
their ladder system: everyone who plays the game is ranked somewhere on the
gigantic ladder and, if you're good enough, you can play against the pros if
you get ranked up there. The NBA could do it too instead of attracting only 8
foot freaks of nature and guys who have been playing professionally since age
8. Fans would have a tangible reason to want to watch other than that the pros
are pretty good.

I dunno. The NBA also makes oodles of money and they'd hate my system too so
w/e.

~~~
Godel_unicode
Your system has one simple but fatal flaw; watching people who suck isn't
interesting. {,e}sports only draw viewers if the sport is played well, and
there are very few people who can do that for almost any sport.

Consider that rocket league has built in support for tournaments, and it's a
ghost town because they're always won by Grand Champs, who are also usually
twitch streamers, just destroying normal people.

Edit: it's also blatantly untrue that elite players are uninteresting, go
watch any press conference with Von Miller or James Harden. This kind of
uninformed pejorative just comes off sounding like sour grapes.

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wesleytodd
I actually see someone calling it a bubble as a good sign. Media outlets are
typically looking for stories like this, and even if most of this is close
enough to true, it is a new industry and has tons of room to grow.

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AFascistWorld
Esports is particularly time-wasting.

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majani
The article misses one crucial issue with esports. The appeal of mainstream
sports tends to be that the audience gets to watch genetic outliers perform
physical feats of wonder. It's a very primal appeal. Watching Sonicfox
dominate just doesn't generate the same level of emotion for most people as
watching Michael Jordan dominate.

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stunt
For many companies, Esports are a marketing tool to sell more.

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oceanghost
What a long-winded article.

