
Why millions of people are getting hit with a surprise tax bill this year - kimsk112
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/2/6/18214039/irs-tax-refund-withholding-trump
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elipsey
I suspect that many Americans do not actually compute their effective tax rate
each year. I think this is happening because people I talk to seem to
construct their beliefs about tax rates based on claims made in political
rhetoric and by journalists, but then proceed to astonish me by not knowing
their own realized income tax rate from the prior year when I ask them.

This article, and the linked twitter posts, suggest a great strategy for
lobbying the public: increase withholding rates while claiming to lower taxes.
I wonder if we will see more of this?

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peapicker
All I know is while my refund is smaller than I expected, when I ran the
numbers my tax bill is 1% less of my gross than last year. So the withholding
math from my paycheck made things more even.

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vlucas
TL;DR: The tax withholding calculations changed, so less people are overpaying
on taxes (withholding from each paycheck is lower), and thus less people are
getting refunds, or are getting much lower refunds than last year. The overall
tax burden still went down for most people.

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joezydeco
_The overall tax burden still went down for most people._

Citation, please? With the kneecapping of SALT deductions this number is going
to swing radically.

