

Statistical analysis of NFL 4th down strategy - microtherion
http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/JPE_April06.pdf

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zdw
Could someone provide a TL;DR for this? Frankly, even the conclusion is pretty
obtuse.

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microtherion
TL;DR for football coaches: If you have a 4th & 2 from your own 10 in the
first quarter, go for it!

TL;DR for football fans: The take-away graph is Fig. 4 on pg. 353. The solid
line represents when a team SHOULD go for it on 4th down to maximize expected
points. The dashed line represents when teams DO go for it. Bottom line is
that teams go for it MUCH less often than would maximize their expected
points.

TL;DR for economists: NFL coaching could be assumed to be a case where (a) a
lot of objective data is available to base decisions on (b) the result to be
maximized (wins) would appear to be fairly obvious (c) decision makers
(coaches) are highly qualified and highly motivated. Yet in practice, coaches
systematically deviate from the strategy that would maximize wins. It's not
clear whether this is due to (I) the "true" result coaches are trying to
maximize is NOT wins or (II) coaches not making strictly rational decisions.

TL;DR for hackers: I found the analytical reasoning (opportunity cost; etc)
interesting, and found it worth reading the whole thing for that.

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waterside81
_If you have a 4th & 2 from your own 10 in the first quarter, go for it!_

No matter what the math says, no coach will do this (save for maybe Billichek,
but even he's not that bold). Sports is one of those areas where the "gut" and
conventions are more important than stats and probabilities. Moneyball is a
great book for anybody whose interested in the intersection of sports
conventions and math.

[http://www.amazon.com/Moneyball-Art-Winning-Unfair-
Game/dp/0...](http://www.amazon.com/Moneyball-Art-Winning-Unfair-
Game/dp/0393057658)

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microtherion
Actually, there was an article a while ago about a high school coach who NEVER
punted or tried a field goal:

[http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/jon_wertheim/0...](http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/jon_wertheim/09/17/no.punt/index.html)

I've read Moneyball, and I find it interesting that statistical methods have
been accepted so much more in baseball over the last decade or so, but seem to
still be shunned in football, at least for this particular situation.

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Anechoic
Gregg Easterbrook (Tuesday Morning Quarterback column on ESPN.com) has been a
huge proponent of "don't punt" and wrote about this paper a couple of years
ago:
[http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/...](http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060926)

[http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrookp...](http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrookpreview/070904)

