
Number of deaths has been outside the IHME prediction intervals 70% of the time - starpilot
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062257v1
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gus_massa
I had to read Table 1 like 10 times to understand what it says. It's an
horrible way to present the data.

The Figure 2 is strange. It's a graph of the error in the forecast for 1 day
and the error in the forecast for 2 days. It´s not surprising that is is
correlated. I´m not sure if it's clear why it is so linear, but perhaps it is
necesary to read the underlaying model to undestand that. Anyway, if it is so
linear, perhaps it may be useful to use as a empiric correction.

I should undust my probability books, but IIRC the number of cases should
follow a Poisson distribution, with a different lambda each day. In that case
the 95% interval should be huge, like from almost 0 to 3lambda. It looks
difficut to miss an interval that is so huge.

