
DHH: Being at the right time at the right place is not the secret ingredient. - div
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ISOSyr_dMU
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ellyagg
He's absolutely right. The problem is that people buy their listeners some
temporary comfort with their false modesty, but at the same time disempower
them in the long term by saying that success is a function of luck.

Few people say their success was all luck, but many give it a bigger role than
it deservers. It you are successful on a 10% play, it's easy to pass that off
as luck. But if you made 10 plays like that, it's not really luck, now, is it?

Of course, sometimes the magnitude of the success is mostly luck.

~~~
_delirium
I think the last part might be why some big winners are modest about it. They
don't think of the question as, "was it luck that I was successful?", but as
"was it luck that I made $2 billion?". The answer's probably a lot closer to
yes on the 2nd question, which can make it tempting to say that you succeeded
due to luck.

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frederickcook
The size of the opportunity you choose to go after has a significant role in
the maximum success you may have, and that choice should not be discounted.
Founders of billion-dollar companies such as PayPal and YouTube foresaw that
the world was changing, and given many industries to choose from, they picked
a couple of the largest possible markets where they could have an impact.

If you decide to spend the next four years of your life making, say,
appointment scheduling software (first thing that came to mind), that is a
conscious choice not to go after a billion-dollar market, and right off the
bat, the potential magnitude of your success is constrained.

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jefarmstrong
What he's trying to say, I think, is that you can only benefit from "being at
the right place at the right time" if you have put in the effort to be ready
to capitalize on that moment. If you put in the hard work, then there are many
right moments and right places, otherwise they're just another moment that
passes you by. DHH seems to be very angry lately, no?

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stcredzero
Luck comes to the prepared mind. --Louis Pasteur

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mdg
luck = preparation + oppurtunity

\- Jim Greco

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joshu
opportunity = preparation - luck ?

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TheSOB88
Can you not math? Opportunity is luck minus preparation.

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joshu
I cannot math :(

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nostromo
Let's take Mark Zuckerberg or Bill Gates. Smart? Yes. Hard working? Yes. But
are they 1,000 or 10,000 times harder working and smarter than the average
techie? No way.

They were indeed working their asses off in the right place at the right time.

~~~
mapleoin
but maybe finding that right place and time is also one of their learned
skills

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ori_b
I don't know about that. It seems to me that luck is one of the secret
ingredients. It's not what turns an abject failure into a success, but it is
what sets apart the thousands of above-average individuals who are doing fine
from the roaring successes.

Ability is a necessary ingredient. Luck gives you the initial break, and lets
you set up a feedback loop of success. At least, this seems to be what I've
observed.

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linkfrek
quick byte: -(37signals before DH) During a job interview in which JF wasnt
very serious about landing the job, he randomly met an acquaintance. This
person agreed to work for 37signals as a designer. This person brought a
former client with him to 37signals. This client spent atleast 200,000 in
services from 37signals.

Who knows how 37signals would have turned out without that 200k during its
early years. This was 37signals big break, not saying it "made" 37signals,
just saying that 200k obviously helps and luck was a factor. Source: a mixergy
interview with JF.

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10ren
The reasoning reminds me of the Carol Dweck stuff (kids praised for their
talent are disempowered; those praised for their efforts are empowered), where
she was talking about the specific subset of luck that is natural talent.

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joshu
I think that luck can be manufactured. Being in the right place gets easier if
you can be in more places and get a sense for when to not be in the wrong
place.

Also, a LOT of entrepreneurs do stuff that minimizes their chances - not doing
that allows any luck you might actually get to shine through.

~~~
rmorrison
_a LOT of entrepreneurs do stuff that minimizes their chances_

Could you please give some examples of what you're referring to?

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joshu
Terrible communication. Story-based reasoning. Lack of planning. Betting on
low-odds outcomes, etc. Not being persistent. Being too persistent. Being
distracted. List goes on and on and on.

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rmorrison
_Story-based reasoning._

I find it easy to get wrapped up in this as an entrepreneur, and it took me a
lot of time and energy to fight this inclination.

Basically, it's so easy to visualize mass adoption of your product and how
your customers are going to benefit, you end up drinking your own Kool-Aid.
Then, when trying to explain your product you get caught up and end up doing a
poor job selling it to potential customers.

I think the best way to get over this this is to really listen to what the
customers are saying. What works for them, what doesn't work for them, and
then address these points. This means at times ignoring your visions and
focusing on reality.

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vannevar
When in doubt, apply Occam's razor. Consider a room full of 1000 coin
flippers. Each flips his coin, and if it comes up tails, he must leave the
room. After ten flips, there will be likely be one player who has flipped 10
heads in a row. He will be hailed as an expert coin flipper and make millions
writing a book about how he did it.

What's more, unlike coin flipping, money has memory. Having money makes it
easier to get more. Capital provides interest income with no labor required,
and more significantly, investors are much quicker to invest in someone with a
track record.

Hard work and intelligence can buy you the opportunity and provide a good
standard of living, but they alone cannot make you rich, at least not in the
short time frames we tend to think in.

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jonpaul
I wrote this comment: I completely agree with the spirit of what DHH is
saying. However, I think the most important message as he states is that
people shouldn’t blame lack of success due to not being lucky. That’s where
the emphasis on this topic should be placed. Those that say “I just go lucky”
or “I was in the right place at the right time” might just be trying to be
humble. At least that’s what I take from Jim Collins book “From Good to Great”

To recap: let’s emphasize the message that luck is bullshit and that it’s not
necessary for success.

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jimmyjim
"Audentes fortuna iuvat" ('Fortune favors the bold') - Vergil

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rjett
"The harder I work, the luckier I get" -Samuel Goldwyn

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asdflkj
Whom is he arguing against? Does anyone say any of those things that he
impersonated?

~~~
div
Maybe to a lesser extent on Hacker news, but I have definitely heard people
attributing success to luck or just being at the right place at the right time
more then a few times.

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armandososa
Isn't it the whole thesis of the Outliers book?

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sports_guy
Hard Work + Luck. The right circumstances let Gates have access to the right
technology where he could then put in 10,000 hours of hard work etc.

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ruang
Luck is a necessary but insufficient condition.

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vannevar
I think most lottery winners find luck to be quite sufficient. I think what
you mean to say is that luck is by definition scarce, so depending solely on
it showing up is likely to be a losing strategy.

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antidaily
"the more I practiced the luckier I got" - golfer Ben Hogan.

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david927
It was for you, David.

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c00p3r
...you also need to be prepared (have a rich parents with good connections, in
the first place, plus some character and perhaps some experience =)

The 'Catch the moment!' saying is a several thousands year old.

