
Trump withdraws from Iran nuclear agreement - m1
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/may/08/iran-nuclear-deal-donald-trump-latest-live-updates
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satokema
Can anyone actually give me an elevator summary of what this actually means
without relying on tribal language or dog-whistles? Clicking link related
doesn't actually explain why any of this matters to me outside of signaling
and posturing; it just sends me to a timeline of various pundits and
celebrities telling me how I should feel bad and angry about this.

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AnimalMuppet
The US had a deal with Iran where they wouldn't pursue nuclear weapons, and we
would ease back on the sanctions that were hurting their economy. Trump
scrapped the deal, which (I presume) means the sanctions are going back in
effect.

That's going to hurt Iran's economy (and, to a much lesser extent, the US
economy as well). It's also going to raise international tensions.

Whether it's good or bad depends on your interpretation of whether Iran was
keeping their end of the deal (the spirit, the letter, or both).

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dragonwriter
> The US had a deal with Iran where they wouldn't pursue nuclear weapons, and
> we would ease back on the sanctions that were hurting their economy.

Note that we did not agree to remove direct sanctions, only secondary
sanctions (sanctions on non-Iranian entities doing business with Iran.)

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rando444
Now that North Korea is becoming more friendly, one only hopes he's not
grasping at straws to create a military conflict to create a distraction from
his personal issues.

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yongjik
Unfortunately for everyone but Trump, if he _wants_ North Korea to be less
friendly, it's not exactly hard to do so. :/

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dragonwriter
Scrapping the Iran deal when Iran was widely viewed as being in compliance
would be a _very good_ way to make North Korea less inclined to deal.

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runesoerensen
Title should be _" Trump withdraws U.S. from nuclear agreement"_ or just _"
U.S. withdraws from nuclear agreement"_.

The distinction matters as this is something the U.S. (not just Trump) is
doing. The rest of the world care less about who or what causes the U.S. to
act this way.

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patrickg_zill
One chart that I saw, indicates that the amount of business with Iran that the
US does, is about $200 million dollars per year. The EU combined however, did
about $25 Billion in trade with Iran last year. So it is much more significant
to the EU than the US.

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velobro
Somewhere Putin is laughing historically. This is all so easy for him

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0xfaded
Hysterical laughter of historic proportion.

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LifeLiverTransp
The irony beeing that iran, culturally is much closer to the west then all
those "natural" allies in the region except israel. The few iranians i met
where quite open minded, scientific endavouring and driven people. Very
creative. They even have that messianic martyr streak that makes for such nice
founder stories.

"For one year we suffered, wearing the cross of 16 h days- and then my company
died, but on the third day, i pivoted and it ressurrected." the pull through
narrative of the champions.

Iran is one huge memorial for top-down modernization gone wrong along with
turkey and i presume very soon - saudi arabia. Turns out- that when some cruel
elite percived as a outsider force inserts a ideology, the people will reject
it quite violently and ralley behind whatever oppossition available.

The iran nuclear deal was a attempt to contain and prevent a local nuclear
arms race. Which now will go into full gear i presume- israel has nukes, saudi
arabia and iran will want them too - or at least join some retaliation strike
pact like NATO. Which can be provided by any major nuclear force in the
region. So lots of diplomats currently travelling and offering nuclear
umbrellas.

The colonial era drawn states dissolve and entitys alligned by
culture/religion re-appear. What remains are some mixed out of the way
clusters for minoritys, a small kurdistan, syria and a very large
iran(including most of the former iraq) with some proxy states, and a wahabi-
power block. Turkey will be cut off from the wahabi-block and get stuck in
something similar to vietnam.

Lots of the players will go for nukes to cement there conquered territories
and enjoy the status of North Korea - in particular since the US seem to be on
its way out into isolationism.

Russia supports iran currently by accident. Israel has chosen the lesser
competent evil as ally and supports saudi arabia against iran- although the
very same saudi arabia still propels most the religious narrative of the
islamic oppossition to israels existance.

Its a great game, and the west is actually percived by now as a unreliable
buisness-partner and dangerous - often absent replacable ally.

A good coherent strategy would be for the west to force its actual allies -
not by propaganda or current ruler, but by cultural development direction(
israel, kurds, iran) into a coherent block and leave the rest of the region to
do what it always does, repeat past mistakes.

PS: North africa is turning into a bunch of warlords playing europe for
ressources and bribes in return for holding refugees back.

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pasbesoin
Macron had it about right: Domestic reasons.

Also, Trump is more comfortable with as well as playing strong man. He doesn't
want the U.S. to win; _he_ wants to "win". If he could, I'm sure he'd scrap
term limits, fair elections, and line up his kids for dynasty.

Finally, I'll mention that China's in the process of de facto purchasing
Afghanistan. Not the political quagmire, but rather dominant if not sole
proprietorship over the commercial interests. This will place them at Iran's
border. And what's the name of that global trade "road" Xi is building?

The counterbalance there will be Russia, to the extent they can back up their
military with the commensurate expenditures. Not a counter-balance that works
in the U.S.'s -- nor Europe's -- favor.

