
Ask HN: How do you deal with the increasing global race to the bottom? - votr
Perhaps the question itself implies too much.<p>But I feel that as time goes on, my competition will increasingly be not just those in my market, but across the globe. It&#x27;s only a matter of time before programming labor is commoditized.<p>What are some strategies to deal with this beyond picking a hyper specialization?
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user5994461
>> What are some strategies to deal with this beyond picking a hyper
specialization?

Well, stop thinking about it. Not only it is depressing but it is also
seriously wrong.

I've been hearing that since before I started. Not only did it never happen,
but it's getting more unlikely to happen every day.

It's not possible to commoditize something that 99.xxx% of people are
unwilling and/or unable to do.

Yes, most people simply don't want to sit at a computer all day and/or don't
have what it takes to be a decent programmer. And everyday the barrier to
entry is getting a bit harder with more tools and more technologies and more
abstractions appearing, each adding a bit more complexity over the precedent.

If anything, look around you and watch the race to the top for the few who can
follow. There are entire companies in our industry which exist to attract and
bread the best and the brightest.

\---

Now, I can understand why some people would be afraid of a commodity market.

Somewhere in the world, there will ALWAYS be a guy who only has $10 to pay for
whatever thing he wants done AND there will ALWAYS be a guy that will offer to
do the job for that price.

That first guy will always accept the offer because he has no seemingly better
alternative and he'll just burn the money hoping to get something in return.
(note: ain't gonna happen. You just don't get anything real for $10).

The point being: Just because there are some guys with no money and some guys
who are screwing them. That doesn't mean that it's a "commodity market", let's
just call that a "scam market".

Anyone serious who wants to get the job done or anyone who can get the job
done will simply NOT participate in this scam market. When we're talking real
work, there is simply no commodity market whatsoever (in our field).

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doozy
Supply and demand, the one thing economists get right.

You seems to be assuming the supply of software developers will keep
outgrowing the demand for them. Why? I predict the exact opposite: As the
developing world develops, local demand for software will keep outpacing
global capability to create developers. I live in the developing world, I
should know.

99% of people cannot play an instrument. 99% of people cannot draw. 99% of
people cannot do math. 99% cannot develop software. And that's a conservative
estimate.

Today's computers "Just Work", no one needs to know anything to use one
anymore, and it shows. You find today people working as developers who would
have a lot of trouble just using a computer from as late as 20 years ago.

Developers are getting dumber, not smarter. As abstractions have been piled
upon abstractions actual programming skills have decreased. No one knows how
to do anything anymore without an IDE to hold their hand and a web browser to
look up everything. We've replaced the hacker with the hack.

Am I exaggerating? Try interviewing a few people for a developer position and
see for yourself. The level of incompetence is astonishing. Degrees,
experience or national origin seems to have no correlation whatsoever with
their skills.

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dhruvkar
Not knowing your currently technical niche, industry or passions, this
question implies that you think about yourself as a commodity.

Rather, think of yourself as a problem-solver, who has many tools at his/her
disposal, (a major) one being writing code.

This allows you to fit yourself into many different molds, rather than just a
fixed position as a programmer, much like a factory worker at a manufacturer.

I personally enjoy thinking of myself as a consultant, as it allows me to
focus on figuring out solutions to problems I encounter, rather than the tools
I have at my toolbox. This is not always natural or easy, but a continued,
concerted effort at developing this mindset has paid off for me.

~~~
votr
In response to you and codegeek, I do think of myself this way. I'm an
excellent communicator and actually stand out at work because of this
(technology at an investment bank).

Your response made me realize what I'm really asking...

How can I position myself _independently_ as someone with this skillset
(programming + wide toolbox) outside of a job?

Thank you, that's what I was really trying to ask.

~~~
dhruvkar
I'm in the same boat as you - trying to figure out how to do that as well.

~~~
votr
I've just started dipping my toes into education; sharing stuff through my
blog to demonstrate how clearly I can convey things.

I don't know about your personality, but if you're similar to me, then it's
about stepping out of our comfort zone and building a network.

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codegeek
Don't be good only at programming. Know how to sell solutions and have the
ability to communicate effectively. You will be pleasantly surprised how far
along you will be if you have those extra skills other than the programming
one.

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akg_67
IMO, you are on the right path by looking beyond hyper specialization. There
is a devaluation trend for all type of labor. Sooner or later your hyper
specialized labor will also be devalued. Will this devaluation happen in your
lifetime, that is the only open question?

In the end, we all are either a labor provider or capital provider. With the
ongoing devaluation of all type of labor, instead of moving from one type of
labor to another type of labor that may get devalued in the future, you should
be thinking and planning about moving from being labor provider to becoming
capital provider. You might want to consider exploring labor to capital
conversion path.

\- Maximize labor to capital conversion rate. Favor "love what you do" over
"do what you love."

\- Maximize storing of capital. Favor much lower spending than what you make.

\- Maximize capital generation through stored capital. Favor experiences over
things.

Once your capital is generating enough capital, you no longer need to focus on
the devaluation of labor. You can focus on doing what you love irrespective of
the value of that labor.

~~~
chii
I fail to see how a majority of people can generate money via capital.
Investment income only works when there are people willing to take the
investment money and produce goods or services. In a world where the majority
have an over abundance of capital, and little to nobody to actually work to
produce, where would the value be created? The system works right now because
most people are poor and have to work to live rather than invest to live.

~~~
meric
We have an appearance of abundance of capital, but not an actual abundance.

An actual abundance of capital will mean people can consume their capital
instead of participating in the labor market. But they cannot, as you said,
because they're poor, which means they lack capital.

You can see this in the hockey stick graphs of all sorts of debt in the global
economic system. A lot of that debt, is counted as "capital". There's so much
debt, so central banks and government think we have an abundance of capital.

But, a lot of that debt is _never_ going to be paid back. That debt is only an
_appearance of abundance capital_. An analogy would be the Venezuelan
government giving out tons and tons of food coupons that can be redeemed next
year. It appears there's an abundance of food, so the price of food initially
drops. And then people realise the coupons are never going to be redeemed, the
price of food will skyrocket.

Once there's a Minsky moment where everyone realises this, it will be a lot
easier for people to generate money via real capital - for now the returns on
capital are price controlled by the central bank, which exacerbates shortfall
in real capital. When people realise there's a shortage of real capital, the
price control mechanism will collapse.

And then, people will learn to invest again.

I'm not saying everyone can live off capital income, I'm saying there's
potential for more people to do so.

------
elevensies
The economic system we live in is Capitalism, and if you want to maximize your
control of your outcomes you need to be a Capitalist.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitalism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitalism)

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johngalt
I don't agree with the premise. But if you do believe that the future of
programming will be commoditized workers making peanuts, then you would want
to position yourself ahead of that curve. Be the guy who is putting together
teams of low paid offshore programmers to take on the whales who have high
margins/salaries.

Anytime you feel that the future will be X, while the present is Z, you should
focus on being Y.

~~~
insoluble
The basic idea here is that arguing with reality is counter-productive. To be
effective, one should embrace those changes that cannot be avoided.

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insoluble
For many in the field, a bigger issue than commoditisation is probably wage
gaps between higher and lower cost regions of the globe. While it should not
be expected that the average person can or even could compete with top-notch
developers, for most of us, we still have to compete with good developers in
extremely low-cost regions. Until the globe evens out in cost-of-living, this
issue should continue to exist. Until quality programming and engineering do
_not_ require substantially above-average intelligence, these professions
should not become a commodity.

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samfisher83
Everything is cyclical. People were getting crazy money late 90s early 2000.
Then dotcom crash happened and a lot of people left the industry. Everything
is cyclical. Look at the oil industry, financial industry, etc. I guess the
medical industry is the only that doesn't have cycles.

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ImTalking
I don't understand these types of questions. If you can program, can't you
create stuff? Stuff that people are willing to use/buy?

Techies will always think as techies. A techie that can think like a
businessperson is as rare as a unicorn.

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swah
Right now, I kinda feel like you. I think its just a narrow mindset - we
should change into an abundance mindset instead..

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DrNuke
Entrepreneurship (creating jobs) is the way to stand out and command respect
within your community and maybe globally.

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banku_brougham
yet, remote work is limited not by tech skill as much as communication
difficulties, at my large tech company.

