
Those Knowing History May Find It’s Time to Invest - robg
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/business/12stox.html?hp
======
smakz
I agree, it's a great time to invest, but remember - the market can stay
irrational longer then you can stay solvent.

It may take 15-30 years for the market to "recover", can you wait it out long
enough without being forced to withdraw money from the market at a bad time?

~~~
kingkongrevenge
So there is a New York Times article saying now might be a buying opportunity,
and you readily find posts here in the same vein. This STRONGLY indicates the
bottom is a LONG way away. At true secular bottoms nobody mainstream is even
asking if the bottom is in; they're too scared off the asset class.

Think of the mirror image: the top. In 2000 and 2007 did you repeatedly hear
the press and random normal people debate if the top is in and things were set
to plunge? No, you didn't. That's just not how mass market psychology works.

~~~
dmix
I see where your coming from, but this NYTimes article is far from the "mass"
opinion of the press or the average stockholder.

The simple fact is that people who have enough wealth/capital to take risks
during a recession, generally do very well when the economy recovers.

~~~
kingkongrevenge
> is far from the "mass" opinion of the press or the average stockholder

I think it is very much the mass opinion. People are expecting some sort of
rebound next year or the year after. Surveys show most home owners continue to
think their houses will appreciate substantially over the next three years.
The contrarian buy-time is WAY off.

------
Tichy
Hm, the prices might eventually rise again. On the other hand, they might
continue to fall even lower.

Information gained: zero

------
jasonkolb
They may also find themselves poorer in the future, which is an indication
that they need to understand more about the present to successfully invest.

------
jmtame
I still don't think I feel comfortable about putting money back into the stock
markets. Or even into stock markets altogether. The stock market, at least in
its current design, is by nature going to go through bubbles.

I'd almost rather take the money and invest it into something I know I have
control over, such as a side project or a startup of some sort.

~~~
eru
People are not feeling comfortable with the stock market - it may be a good
sign to get back in.

(Disclaimer: As a poor student I do not have enough disposable assets, yet, to
practise what I preach.)

------
fallentimes
Whatever you do, just do it slowly and mostly in dividend issuing
companies/money market funds/cash generating investments. World diversified
dollar cost averaging portfolios are hard to beat.

------
known
aka "be opportunistic"

------
TweedHeads
Not yet, I predict the dow to hit rock bottom around 5k in the next couple of
weeks, then rebound. Be alert, then buy.

