
Fish and (micro)chips: Why I’m relatively relaxed about robots - gpresot
https://bankunderground.co.uk/2016/10/10/fish-and-microchips-why-im-relatively-relaxed-about-robots/
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paulsutter
TL/DR:

After 900 words, he realizes the question is when machines can exceed human
intelligence. Then, he concludes that there's no way it can happen in 40-50
years[1], based on, apparently, _the opinion of a couple other economists_.

> Perhaps automation will be qualitatively different ... because robots will
> have a cognitive function...

> But the million dollar question is whether this change in substitutability
> will occur, and if so, how fast...

> Perhaps in the distant future robots might displace large swathes of human
> labour. But unless there are rapid advances in medicine or time travel, I
> fear I won’t be there to see it…

[1] looking at his CV he appears to be 40ish, that's where I get an implied
40-50 year time horizon
[http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/researcher...](http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/researchers/johnlewiscv.pdf)

~~~
rjsw
Or alternative TL/DR:

Economist has read about the concept of the outside world.

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GarrisonPrime
This guy is delusional and ignores inconvenient facts. Such as there being
limited fish, and a limited appetite for fish.

Congrats, John Lewis. In your attempt to convince me automation isn't going to
be too disruptive, you've instead nudged me towards the opposing opinion.

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lpcamacho
The problem is not automation of jobs. The problem is that developed countries
don’t need to consume as much as they used to. We can reallocate jobs until a
certain point, but if we catch more fish that we need, we will eventually
reach unemployment.

~~~
treehau5
A league of fish catching nations, (who knows, maybe they will call themselves
the Organization of Fish Exporting Countries, or OFEC) will form and they will
control fish catching operations.

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legacynl
"Previous economy wide transformational changes didn’t happen in a short space
of time. "

Hmm yeah thats true. But since the industrial revolution there has been a lot
of changes. Especially in the way of infrastructure and communication.
Industrial revolution took 50 years, the advent of the smartphone has only
taken 5 years.

