
Virtual reality: a billion dollar niche - jstrieb
https://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/pages/technology-media-and-telecommunications/articles/tmt-pred16-media-virtual-reality-billion-dollar-niche.html
======
caconym_
So how did reality stack up against these predictions? A lot of comments in
here seem to be implying that this article was overly optimistic, but I don't
see any real numbers backing that up.

I do get the feeling that sales fell short of expectations, but is that really
true? And by how much?

~~~
sgift
> I do get the feeling that sales fell short of expectations, but is that
> really true? And by how much?

No one actually knows at the moment, or rather: The people who know don't
tell. There are many rumours flying around (e.g. "Vive was sold around 140k
times" based on SteamSpy data) with corresponding dismissal ("We have sold
many more than 140k units and are very happy" was HTCs answer) and so on. I
think it will take a while until we can say if sales fell short or not. Maybe
in a year.

~~~
georgeecollins
The market for high quality headsets is still small to support high quality VR
content, which is expensive to develop. Casual (phone) headsets don't generate
much revenue. So it's growing, but not generally profitable. The question is
will it grow enough to support a large ecosystem?

~~~
Mahn
High quality VR is simply too expensive right now for anyone but the most
hardcore PC gamers due to the requirement for a high end gaming rig in
addition to the headset. Facebook and Valve will have to continue subsidizing
VR content and developers until they can change this.

~~~
actsasbuffoon
Playstation VR hits a decent sweet spot on price/quality IMHO. $350 for a PS4,
$100 for a pair of PS Move controllers, $60 for a PS camera, and $400 for the
headset. That's a total of $910, but cheaper if you already own some of the
components. 36 million homes already had a PS4 as of this past January, so
they can cut $350 from that price.

The quality isn't as good as a Vive, but I've been able to play for hours
without nausea. I bought an Oculus DK1 shortly after launch and suffered
pretty severe nausea within 20 minutes most of the time. I was worried that I
might be one of these people who just doesn't have the stomach for VR, but now
I suspect it was the lack of head tracking on the DK1.

------
CoolGuySteve
It really bothers me that VR is segmented between "full featured" and "mobile"
as outlined in this report.

Roughly speaking, the extra features needed to bring a high end phone to
Occulus/Vive level is 90fps (make it optional to save battery of course) and
USB-C video in. The rest of the tracking sensors/LEDs and whatnot can be built
into the headset.

Meanwhile you're expected to pay $700 for a phone and $700 for a headset, each
of which has about an 70% overlap in the most expensive components.

On top of all that, it sucks that the headsets for full featured VR vary in
comfort and design but are hard wired to the displays. Most reviews say Vive
is the least comfortable of the batch but the most immersive.

Ideally the head mount would be a separate thing from the display/processor
like in the mobile VR space. That would allow you to find the head mount most
comfortable for you, and also to upgrade your VR internals while keeping the
same head mount for several generations of technology.

So in my ideal world, VR would be a licensed or open standard system like
Dolby whatever or THX are for audio. For example, if you bought a phone with
the Whizbang VR logo on it, it would work with your Whizbang VR logo head
tracking sensors, Whizbang VR logo head mount, Whizbang VR logo controllers,
and be compatible with the Whizbang VR software API. But all that stuff could
be made by different manufacturers.

~~~
DiThi
> So in my ideal world, VR would be a licensed or open standard system like
> Dolby whatever or THX are for audio. For example, if you bought a phone with
> the Whizbang VR logo on it, it would work with your Whizbang VR logo head
> tracking sensors, Whizbang VR logo head mount, Whizbang VR logo controllers,
> and be compatible with the Whizbang VR software API. But all that stuff
> could be made by different manufacturers.

That are exactly the goals of OpenVR and OSVR. Both APIs allow any vendor and
any software to communicate with each other. In fact I used a Rift DK2 with
razer hydras and leap motion (the driver for the latter being third party).
Riftcat and trinus are two examples of third party OpenVR HMD drivers.

You can now buy lighthouse sensors and make and sell devices royalty free
(currently with a temporal condition for licensing of attending a seminar).

The reason Vive controllers connect to the HMD instead to a USB dongle or link
box is that dev kit users complained the wireless connection was problematic
sometimes; But you can use them with a different HMD (through USB) or you can
use different controllers with the Vive.

There are limitations at this time with mixing different tracking systems but
I think it's reasonable since it's currently unusual, and I'm sure there will
be third party solutions for either API when it's not that unusual (in the
case Valve themselves don't offer a solution). The Hydra driver already has a
calibration step to have it match the HMD.

In a few days Oculus users will be able to access a big library of Vive games
using their Touch controllers. But unlike with the Vive and all other vendors,
Oculus hardware can only be used with their runtime.

------
baldfat
> There are hundreds of millions of gamers on consoles and PCs, and many of
> them buy hardware accessories to improve their game play. However, the vast
> majority of the top selling peripherals are $30-50.

They obviously don't focus on PC players. Graphics cards should count as a
peripheral and mice and keyboards are above the $50 price point for most PC
gamers.

~~~
golergka
I think that you have a stereotypical hardcore gamer in mind, not the silent
majority of people who have 8 games in their Steam library which they play
occasionally on their laptops. They may not be that vivid as a stereotype,
they don't post on forums, they don't read gaming press - but they are PC
gamers, and, most likely, the majority.

~~~
baldfat
> I think that you have a stereotypical hardcore gamer in mind, not the silent
> majority of people who have 8 games in their Steam library which they play
> occasionally on their laptops

I think you are making some assumptions. People have been downplaying PC
gamers as a minority but we can look at Steam hardware surveys. Also the
numbers don't lie when you look at games like league of Legends. League's
player count and also the eSport events and viewer counts shows how big this
PC player base is. It has been growing year after year.

People have just make assumptions that mom's playing casual games online
counts as the majority. BUT the vast majority of casuals moved to mobile years
ago. This analysis is just really missing the current picture.

[http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/](http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/)

60% of Steam Users use NVIDIA cards and dedicated chips

Look at the cards and you will see that the VAST Majority of Steam users have
video cards or dedicated video for their laptops.
[http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/videocard/](http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/videocard/)

VR gaming is kind of like motion controls. Cool idea that is fun for a bit but
can be exhausting for long term use. Best thing for VR right now is consuming
media or for short special experiences.

~~~
cma
Dedicated video on laptops basically doesn't work for VR unless it is the
NVidia 1000 series, or a select few other models, because of power saving
features that routed even dedicated video through the igpu and added latency.

------
kriro
Sine I have recently done a literature review on the topic the bullet points
for medicine/healthcare and emergency work are a bit thin. Specifically for
medicine there are tons and tons of academic publications and it's used for
all sorts of training (mostly surgery). Emergency services use it mostly at
the squad leading level and for some operational aspects. There are also some
police use cases (even though I haven't researched that). I do remember one
paper where researchers basically let criminals and students break into
virtual houses and steal stuff to understand the process better.

I remain a bit skeptical when it comes to VR outside consumer though (maybe
telepresence might be an exception). Most traditional businesses seem to be
more interested in AR (for warehousing etc.)

------
IshKebab
> Hotels can provide VR guides to properties.

Ha, most hotels barely provide photos.

~~~
usrusr
Also, photos are not only much cheaper than VR, deceptive photos are hardly
more expensive than honest ones (just don't point the camera to _that_
corner). With VR, there would be an enormous price difference between having a
VR presentation and having a VR presentation where your hotel actually looks
as good as on the pictures.

~~~
eswat
Sure, prices for doing this in VR are astronomical compared to photos today
(the article mentions this being one of the “commercially insignificant this
year” use cases).

But knowing that the required technology, like 360° cameras, spatial mapping
and easily “photoshopping” 3D spaces, will become cheaper down the road, it
makes sense for hotels to do some pilots to being testing the higher-level
applications of this.

------
s_q_b
After a few years around Gartner, Deloitte, and Accenture I have learned that
consulting reports are usually PR thinly disguised as analysis.

~~~
lowglow
If it's free, it's selling you something.

~~~
simonh
But if what it's selling you is a good impression of the depth and quality of
the author's analysis, that's not necessarily a bad thing. I've not read it in
detail, so I can't give any view on that.

------
cma
Is this old? 2016 is over. Are we supposed to be looking back at how
right/wrong they were? When was this originally published?

~~~
talklittle
archive.org's first scrape of the article was January 14, 2016.

[https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://www2.deloitte.com/glob...](https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/pages/technology-
media-and-telecommunications/articles/tmt-pred16-media-virtual-reality-
billion-dollar-niche.html)

------
lucb1e
Can't press the read more button on mobile. Why is that button there anyway,
isn't it pretty obvious that someone who opens the page wants to read the
content? More and more websites do this, mainly news sites.

~~~
planetjones
Shambolic website IMO. Large cookie banner at the top. Header comes and goes.
Read more button. An attempt to render a PDF I think. Everything that is wrong
with the mobile web would be an apt title for this link too.

~~~
Traubenfuchs
The stuff on top takes up 200px, 150px if you click away the cookie warning,
if you go beyond 1920px in width the "Contact Us" and "Explore Content" boxes
(Does anyone ever click on those?) break out of their boundries...

Why is the search box that prominent?

"About Deloitte" and location selection do not have hover css, when everything
else does...

If you resize your window the content is replaced with mobile content and the
obnoxious "Read More" button appears.

The z-index of the "Contact Us" bar is messed up (It disppears behind the
useless "Did you find this useful?" bar)

Those are just some bad things I noticed. Deloitte is not exactly a little IT
shack. Their web presence is embarrassing.

