Ask HN:Can the current pandemic situation be called a black swan event? - tylordurden
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haspoken
No

From
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory)

Based on the author's criteria:

    
    
        1) The event is a surprise (to the observer).
        2) The event has a major effect.
        3) After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals.
    

It fails on the surprise aspect. Pandemics are expected. Failure to prepare
for them does not make it a surprise.

List of epidemics from wikipedia:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics)

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PaulHoule
Yes

