
The 10,000 Year Clock - dfgdghdf
https://longnow.org/clock/
======
ricree
Another project from the Long Now Foundation that people might find
interesting is Long Bets ([https://longbets.org/](https://longbets.org/)), a
site for charitable wagers based around longer term predictions of the future.
With the site approaching 20 years old now, we're starting to see many of the
medium term bets coming up for settlement, and it's interesting to look back
and see what people were predicting around the turn of the century.

Some of the ones I found particularly interesting that are/will be settled
this decade:

Bet 12 ([https://longbets.org/12/](https://longbets.org/12/)) - No one will
win a Nobel Prize for string theory by 2020

Bet 1 ([https://longbets.org/1/](https://longbets.org/1/)) - The Turing test
will not be passed by 2029

Bet 4 ([https://longbets.org/4/](https://longbets.org/4/)) - Pilotless
passenger planes will be routine by the end of the decade.

Bet 712 ([https://longbets.org/712/](https://longbets.org/712/)) - A
commercial driverless car service will be available (in Las Vegas)

The site was also somewhat notable for the "million dollar bet"
([https://longbets.org/362/](https://longbets.org/362/)) between Warren Buffet
and Protege Partners about whether a curated portfolio of hedge funds would
outperform the S&P500 over a ten year span.

~~~
kbaker
Don't forget this one:

Bet 9 ([https://longbets.org/9/](https://longbets.org/9/)) - A bioterror or
bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event within a six
month period starting no later than Dec 31 02020.

If it was truly an accidental lab release, it could be a winning bet...

~~~
samatman
If reality were in fact a gritty cyberpunk novel, instead of just strongly
resembling one, a team of private investigators hired by friends of the Long
Now would be the force which finally cracks this case wide open...

~~~
p1mrx
That seems implausible, with a whole $400 at stake.

~~~
gorgoiler
I like this story idea a lot!

In the story universe, The Longs keep a low profile by publishing the bets in
dollars.

In fact, an international cabal of power players have $400,000,000 riding on
this one. The Longs don’t want to cause alarm.

------
dang
Here's an attempt to collect all the interesting previous discussions. Can
anybody find one I missed? (Note: this is just for curiosity. Reposts are fine
on HN after a year or so:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html))

2018
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16210106](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16210106)

2015
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8875319](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8875319)

2014 (a bit):
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8555122](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8555122)

2014 (a bit):
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7979761](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7979761)

2013 (a bit):
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6155469](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6155469)

2011
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2665380](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2665380)

2011
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2983359](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2983359)

2011
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2691452](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2691452)

2011 (a bit):
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3197789](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3197789)

Starting off 2020 with a nasty bit:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22184282](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22184282)

~~~
M4v3R
While reading one of the 2011 threads I came across this incredible comment by
Eliezer (who I didn't know about before) replying to someone else:

> > In 100 years I hope to have grandchildren who knew me still living.

> > In 1000 years it's a stretch that there will still be an accurate note of
> my existence.

> > In 10000 there may not even be a myth about the existence of any of us
> here.

> 10,000 years from now, I'm going to remind you that you said that, and we'll
> both think it was pretty funny.

The thought of this for some reason captured my imagination, so I clicked on
the username, and then his website, which led me to the AI-Box Experiment and
oh boy... what a journey this was. Highly recommend reading about this.

~~~
dgellow
AI Box experiment:
[https://yudkowsky.net/singularity/aibox/](https://yudkowsky.net/singularity/aibox/)

~~~
searchableguy
It looks interesting but I don't buy that an AI or any human can convince a
sufficiently motivated and capable individual to let them out of the prison
with no materialistic profit. (like the two defeated individuals)

Let's assume the gatekeeper is a cold hearted psychopath or a person with AI
phobia/paranoia to the extreme.

Why would they let the AI out when they can't feel anything for it?

The author does explain the time gap but what if that is only for collecting
information about the person beforehand in order to blackmail them or steer
the conversation into a pinching point? What if you start with s person with
no identity?

There are no ethical concerns here. Maybe author will shout horrible things
enough times and since you as the gate keeper needs to keep talking and
engaging, you may let the AI out but well, we have a psychopath here.

Do people need to engage in good faith with AI? Can I continue to say _Sorry,
I can 't answer that._? Yes? Does the gatekeeper need to be honest? Can I use
a client side toxicity filter or censor certain words?

There is nothing that would restrict above so what if I censor AI from saying
let me out or similar phrases?

Can you increase the handicap for the AI?

~~~
M4v3R
What I find fascinating is that two people already were convinced that they’d
never release the AI and yet during the experiment they ultimately did. And
they had money incentive to do otherwise (Eliezer would pay them if they
decided not to let him out). You cannot really say that there’s nothing that
could convince you since the conversation was off the record so we’ll never
know for sure how would we react if we had that conversation instead.

It’s also telling that back then when those experiments were initially
conducted you could have a gentleman’s agreement like this (to not disclose
the method of convincing) with a complete stranger on the Internet. Sadly
nowadays many people would probably do a YouTube video about that immediately.

~~~
searchableguy
> What I find fascinating is that two people already were convinced that
> they’d never release the AI and yet during the experiment they ultimately
> did. And they had money incentive to do otherwise (Eliezer would pay them if
> they decided not to let him out). You cannot really say that there’s nothing
> that could convince you since the conversation was off the record so we’ll
> never know for sure how would we react if we had that conversation instead.

Yeah I do too. I am super curious but the dataset of two highly filtered
individuals isn't enough. I lack the imagination to think of a scenario where
I would let it out. I want to know why I would let it out.

> It’s also telling that back then when those experiments were initially
> conducted you could have a gentleman’s agreement like this (to not disclose
> the method of convincing) with a complete stranger on the Internet. Sadly
> nowadays many people would probably do a YouTube video about that
> immediately.

I wouldn't and I think many active HN members wouldn't too. Trust comes from
small tightly knitted communities which would reflect the older internet. It's
not that the people changed fundamentally. They are the same but the dynamics
of how many communities there are for the same topics. People fear being
ostracized but when there are enough options, they put personal responsibility
below other goals.

------
wburglett
One of my favorite ideas for how to address this kind of problem is to build a
'clock' based on continuous performance that serves as its own explanation.
The best example I can think of is the Halberstadt performance of John Cage's
ASLSP
([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/As_Slow_as_Possible#Performanc...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/As_Slow_as_Possible#Performance))

~~~
fipar
I thought about Cage when I saw this submission, and submitted the Wikipedia
page for this piece right away. I see your comment now and I’m glad I’m not
the only one that made the connection!

------
divbzero
The 10,000 Year Clock was part of Neal Stephenson’s inspiration for _Anathem_.
[1]

[1]:
[https://www.nealstephenson.com/anathem.html](https://www.nealstephenson.com/anathem.html)

------
artpi
There is a book by the same title - "Clock of the long now". My favourite line
is "In the long run saving yourself requires saving the whole world."

I am getting kind of obssesed how all the problems we are experiencing now
stem form externalizing consequences to the future. Climate change, messed up
economy or even technical debt stem from making choices that have only short-
term consequences in mind.

Speaking of technical debt- I have a post in the works adapting the principles
of the long clock to software design. The work of the long now foundation is
underrated.

Go slow, Avoid sliding friction (gears)

Avoid ticking

Stay clean

Stay dry

Expect bad weather

Expect earthquakes

Expect non-malicious human interaction

Dont tempt thieves

Use familiar materials

Allow inspection

Rehearse motions

Make it easy to build spare parts

Expect restarts

Include the manual

Scalability and Evolvabilty:

Make all parts similar size

Separate functions

Provide simple interfaces

Here is my summary of the book: [https://piszek.com/2019/10/12/long-
now/](https://piszek.com/2019/10/12/long-now/)

~~~
shadowprofile77
That's a great list of characteristics that you could apply to so many
technical constructions for extreme long term use (habitats, power systems,
space ships, colonies etc)

------
Animats
It's _still_ not finished? They've been working on that, and collecting money,
for over 20 years now. The one in Van Horn is just the prototype, too.

~~~
WJW
What a few decades in construction when it's supposed to last for multiple
millennia? The society of the Long Now probably even considers it an
advantage, in some sort of symbolic way. Most cathedrals are also built for
eternity and some take centuries to complete.

~~~
arethuza
There are probably too many distraction from the outside world - best to build
a wall round the area and let those within focus on their work. Perhaps there
could be gates in the wall that open at suitable time periods...

~~~
WJW
Maybe have concentric rings with gates that open at 1, 10, 100 and 1000 year
intervals to keep things simple?

~~~
alasdair_
I never managed to finish that one. Worth it in the end?

~~~
drxzcl
Only if you like Stephenson Endings.

~~~
alasdair_
I liked Snow Crash, Diamond Age, Cryptonomicon, Interface, Zodiak and even
REAMDE and The Big U and cobweb (to an extent). I never finished the Baroque
cycle though, despite buying the first book in hardback in day one.

I also never quite finished Dodge in Hell either but probably will some day.

------
drdeadringer
About 10 years ago I swung by their San Francisco office. They had an alcove
set up with speakers to demonstrate what the clock might sound like. It was
very Brian Eno, a la "Music For Airports" but like "Music For Time".

------
RichardHeart
I'd trade it for a better chance of personally seeing New Year's eve in 2200.

------
tempsolution
> If you have a Clock ticking for 10,000 years what kinds of generational-
> scale questions and projects will it suggest?

Like... None? This seems like a complete waste of resources. It's probably a
life-like toy from someone with too much money? The world needs more 10,000
year clocks, we don't have any other problems...

If you want a 10,000 clock, you bury a radioactive rock with a note about the
decay pattern at the time of creation and future radiologist will know how
long it's been "ticking". Problem solved.

