
BMW Plans Board Shakeup, Change in Electric Cars Strategy - doener
https://global.handelsblatt.com/breaking/exclusive-bmw-plans-board-shakeup-change-in-electric-cars-strategy
======
jseliger
I like Paul Graham's Tweet: "BMW management meets to decide whether to follow
in the footsteps of Nokia" (in reference to this article:
[http://www.reuters.com/article/us-bmw-electric-strategy-
excl...](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-bmw-electric-strategy-exclusive-
idUSKCN11F25Y)).

Not too long ago, of course, no one could possibly catch the cell phone king
Nokia:
[https://twitter.com/azeem/status/773991128370647040](https://twitter.com/azeem/status/773991128370647040).

~~~
stonogo
All that tells me is that Paul Graham doesn't understand what Nokia's problems
were, or else he doesn't understand the market for electric cars.

If Nokia's executives skipped dog-and-pony shows in order to focus on making
coherent decisions, they would still be a major player in the handset market.

In addition, as you move, demographically, farther afield from tech
millionaires, interest in electric cars drops precipitously. People are
interested in a car that meets their needs; if that car is electric, they'll
buy it. If it isn't, they won't. It really is that simple.

~~~
3pt14159
The public doesn't know anything. iPhone hit the market and I saw the public
debate whether or not it was going to do well without a keyboard. Mention
voice commands to them and they'd just give you this dumb look.

Just as it was then, so is it now. These people don't get it. But they'll get
on board because:

1\. EV are cheaper per km in fuel. 2\. EV are cheapre per km in maintenance.
3\. EV are faster. 4\. EV are safer. 5\. EV are better for the environment.

There are only three things that EV are not:

1\. Better range. 2\. Fast refueling, but this matters less with better range.
3\. Cheaper sticker price.

But when two of those three things move over to the other list, it's game
over. 100% of people will buy / rent EV. They'll tax roads with cellphone
tracking or built right into the car.

~~~
ArkyBeagle
The iPhone was a draw to an inside straight. I don't know how much carry there
is from the iPhone adoption to E/V adoption.

Your "3\. Cheaper sticker price." dominates, I think. I think this because
most people are mainly constrained in consumption behavior by how much
financing they can qualify for. Even GM became effectively a finance company
that owned a carmaking apparatus.

But perhaps E/V will appeal to younger buyers - the sort of people who seem to
prefer bicycles now - _because_ it's not an IC engine. It then just depends on
how broke they are. And perhaps pooling/leasing may figure in.

~~~
3pt14159
Rent is the answer to high upfront cost and low maintenance operations cost.

------
seibelj
I would like to buy an electric car. I live in a city, so range issues aren't
a big deal. But I don't want to pay too much of a premium for an electric car,
and I don't want it to look "weird". Just make your normal cars electric. I
don't want to drive in something that attracts unnecessary attention for
looking strange, like the i3 does.[0] Obviously the price issues won't be
solved for a while, but in 5 or so years I hope to be purchasing an electric
BMW, Lexus, etc. without too much of a premium.

[0] [http://www.bmw.ca/content/dam/bmw/common/all-
models/i-series...](http://www.bmw.ca/content/dam/bmw/common/all-
models/i-series/i3/2013/at-a-
glance/charge%20slide%203.jpg/jcr:content/renditions/cq5dam.resized.img.585.low.time1447951029346.jpg)

~~~
jseliger
_Obviously the price issues won 't be solved for a while_

BMW is offering leases that have a TCO around $300/mo:
[http://www.bmwusa.com/special-
offers/lease.2016-BMW-i3-with-...](http://www.bmwusa.com/special-
offers/lease.2016-BMW-i3-with-Range-Extender.html), with a $199/mo sticker
price. Especially given the sticker price of the car, that's a pretty
fantastic deal.

Most current electric and hybrids have much better lease deals than purchase
deals. The three-year leases also make sense because by the time they expire,
the market will have shaken out in terms of the Tesla Model III, Chevy Bolt,
and other 200-mile-range cars.

~~~
honkhonkpants
Leasing an i3 appears to be a terrible deal. I actually tried to do this
thing, and I called the dealer and told them to warm up their rubber stamps
because I was coming to close the deal. Here's what happened when I showed up:

1: Oh, the deal that we were advertising that I specifically told you over the
phone was available actually isn't because [mumble mumble types of bullshit
about how that car is a demo etc etc bullshit] but this one comes out to only
$10/mo more.

2: Here's the insurance you should buy for the wheels, for $2k, because some
asshole at BMW thought that 19" wheels looked really cool, and the metal parts
of the really cool 19" wheel stick WAY OUT past the end of the really
expensive 19" tire, and you're guaranteed to ruin the wheel the first time you
try to parallel park the car, and each of these wheels costs $1500.

3: And furthermore we really suggest you purchase this other insurance policy
which covers among other things replacement of the headlamp windows, in case
they turn yellow over time. Because, you know, there's no assurance that just
because you leased a car with a sticker price of $58k doesn't mean that they
didn't make the headlights out of the cheapest plastic they could get their
hands on.

4: And more or less a constant parade of nickel-and-dime stuff until finally I
got up and walked out.

I really fail to see how anyone can make one of these cars pencil out. The
operating costs are not all that low. You really need to bring a very high
intangible value to driving an electric car before it appears rational.

~~~
TheSpiceIsLife
I'd expect the same sorts of sales tactics regardless of the car you were
trying to buy.

~~~
honkhonkpants
The cost of the end-of-lease parts and repairs is pretty specific to BMW.

------
daenney
Glad to hear they're considering doing something.

The i3 is the Fiat Multipla of electric cars. An electric 3 series is much
more appealing to me.

Though I'm all for trying out new designs there's something to be said for not
going completely overboard. Tesla stuck to a much more traditional design but
that doesn't seem to have hampered them. I'm reminded of Renault a couple of
years back, they've also toned down their "cubic" design a lot.

------
LargeCompanies
I will never buy another German car as their maintenance and getting the right
parts is a pain.

I bought a 2002 VW Jetta with 88k miles on it in 2013. I'm not one who needs a
fancy car and or car payments. The upkeeps on this thing has a been a
headache(mechanic shops don't have great access to VW parts and it costs a
lot) and it's on it's last legs; lucky if it lasts me to the end of the year.

My last car was a 1997 HOnda Civic in which I bought in 2006 (88k miles on it
then too). I drove that til 2013 until I ruined it mistakenly; still would be
driving that now at probably 250k miles on it. Civics are reliable beasts ...
Hondas in general are. VolksWagens stay away from if your anything like me.
This possibly holds true for other german cars to in terms of reliability and
more so maintenance.

~~~
superuser2
>2002 VW Jetta

Early 2000s were the worst years of VW in recent history. Things have vastly
improved in Mk5, 6, and 7.

~~~
LargeCompanies
Emission scandal now.

VW never again and any German car for me!

------
rurban
Ha! After they lost all the heads of their previous electrical team to China
because the company didn't follow their initial EV plans, they are turning now
180. The electric Mini is back. The Handelsblatt failed to mention any of
these internal conflicts.

But the question is: Will the old team come back? What about their much better
plans they initially had? In-wheel motors? The i8 is already much better than
the Tesla S, but had no chance against it. The i3 is arguably better than the
new Tesla 3.

~~~
sammydavis
It's questionable to say the i8 is better than the Tesla. The i8 is cooler
looking than a tesla. But it's a hybrid, with about 15 miles electric only
range. It's just a plug in hybrid. After having had a tesla, I'd never go
back. I might consider a hybrid if it has large electric range 100+miles, and
cool styling plus awd and cool interior like a tesla. But that doesn't exist.
Maybe the all electric porsche will be a cool all electric, but it won't have
a supercharging network. They claim 15 minute recharge time but there are 0
recharge sites in the world. They won't be able to invest too much in it, they
will also be afraid of cannibalizing their existing gas sales.

------
intrasight
They, like the majority of car companies, are doomed no matter what they build
- because people won't be owning cars.

~~~
m_mueller
"Miele is doomed! Now that there's laundromats and pickup by mail, no one will
buy a washing machine anymore!"

~~~
intrasight
Not comparable. There will be no washing machine tax. For cars, there will be
a) a road tax b)insurance. My claim is that there is going to be a state
transition once the cost of personal car ownership becomes much higher than
automated transportation. This state transition is going to be very painful
for car manufacturers.

~~~
m_mueller
'on an infinite timescale' (as Siracusa likes to say) you could be right but
looking at the political realities I don't expect this within my lifetime.
Take my home country Switzerland: We already have ~50% of commuting done by
public transport, no automation needed. You could certainly make an argument
that it would be much cheaper for the other half to switch as well so the
roads can be used by buses and delivery vehicles - yet noone would even get
that idea. Cars have become such an integral part of culture that it will take
a long time until you find majorities for restricting access (with the
exception of inner cities where this is already happening).

Plus, even in Switzerland where there is practically zero stigma in taking a
bus, there are lots of regions where not having a car is impractical even once
automation is there (an auto still has to get to you when you live in a tiny
mountain village).

~~~
intrasight
The "restricting access" is naturally going to spread out from the city
centers. There are powerful economic forces at play, plus the changing mindset
of the new generation. The cost of building roads is going up faster than the
rate of inflation.

------
weinzierl
> and replace Friedrich Eichiner as chief financial officer.

Just to mention: As CFO Eichiner is also head of the BMW's IT division.

------
nimish
Maybe they'll stop using the autobahn as their yardstick and focus on real
world usage outside of germany.

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sunstone
Damned if they do and dead if they don't.

------
osi
an electric mini would be awesome

------
mtgx
> In addition to the fully electric “i3” models, which have been in production
> since 2013

What? BMW selling "fully electric" i3's is certainly news to me. Weren't all
i3's hybrids?

~~~
lispm
The 60Ah battery-only version is rated to have a 160km range.

With an added optional range extender they make up to 300km.

The new battery will have 94 Ah, instead of 60Ah. Which will extend the range
a bit. With some maths this might be: 250km with battery and 390km with added
optional range extender.

[http://www.bmwblog.com/2016/06/17/2017-bmw-i3-specs-
revealed...](http://www.bmwblog.com/2016/06/17/2017-bmw-i3-specs-revealed-
surprises/)

~~~
sammydavis
Amp hours seems like the wrong measure. How many volts are the batteries?
Tesla's kwh is much clearer. A tesla with 85kwh is rated for 425 km (265
miles).

The only reason I can imagine to use amp hours instead of kwh is to hide the
fact that their batteries have way less capacity than a Tesla. Can someone
explain why you'd use amp hours?

The article below says the 94 Ah battery is 33kwh. Wow, that's a lot less
energy than an 85 or 100kwh tesla. The article below says range of "up to 115
miles". Tesla 85kwh is EPA 265 miles, which is no doubt more real than the
manufacturer "up to" mileage. Why doesn't BMW make a bigger battery car?
Expense, weight, ability to keep it cool while charging?

They seem far behind. The roadster, that came out in 2008 had a 53kwh battery
(last year they offered an upgrade to 80kwh for $29k). Tesla needs better
competition to keep them honest. Maybe in 2018 when the all electric Porsche
comes out, and the model 3, they will be closer.

[http://insideevs.com/official-2017-bmw-i3-gets-33-kwh-
batter...](http://insideevs.com/official-2017-bmw-i3-gets-33-kwh-battery/)

