
What does the coronavirus mean for the U.S. health care system? - vo2maxer
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/
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vo2maxer
At a 10% hospitalization rate, all hospital beds in the U.S. will be filled by
about May 10. And with many patients requiring weeks of care, turnover will
slow to a crawl as beds fill with Covid-19 patients.

If I’m wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that
only changes the timeline of bed saturation by six days (one doubling time) in
either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds
by about May 4. If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until about May
16, and a 2.5% rate gets us to May 22.

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dgritsko
The complacency shown in the US thus far will be extremely painful to look
back on in a few weeks' time. I hope that I'm wrong, but I have little reason
to think otherwise at the moment.

