
It's been 500 years since California has been this dry - JohnHammersley
http://www.washingtonpost.com/rweb/biz/flame-engulfed-california-hasnt-seen-drought-like-this-for-500-years/2015/09/14/24b67fa7f6b9a2f517640cfaa3d3acc8_story.html?tid=kindle-app
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jrapdx3
The drought is affecting several western states, including Oregon where I
live. The severity here isn't (yet) as extreme as in California, but it
definitely is having palpable detrimental effects on water supply and
agriculture in parts of Oregon.

There's been ongoing study of this weather phenomenon by various research
institutions including Oregon State Univ. Apparently a "blob" of warmer-than-
usual water in the northern Pacific is associated with the drought condition.
It's uncertain if it's connected to global warming--that's a subject of
ongoing study.

There's a lot more information here: [http://www.climateprediction.net/new-
climatology-results-for...](http://www.climateprediction.net/new-climatology-
results-for-western-us-drought-experiment/)

The graphic data presentation is quite interesting, e.g., comparing
California, Oregon and Washington. The research relies on distributed
computing to run experimental climate models, some HN readers might be
interested in participating.

------
SCAQTony
Then we are due for an ArkStorm or Atmospheric River.

From the USGS:

"...This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter
storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have
designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an
examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding),
physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic
consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West
Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862
that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated
to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced
on average once every 500 to 1,000 years."

[http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1312/](http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1312/)

~~~
nkurz
An interesting report, but is there any reason to conclude that "we are due"?

If the lack of rain is random (like flipping a fair coin), the expected time
to event would still be 1000 years. Believing that "heads" is more likely
after a string of "tails" is the classic Gambler's Fallacy:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy)

If on the other hand the current drought is caused by a change in climate,
there is even less reason to believe that we are due for a gigantic amount of
rain. If the coin is biased (bent) logic would conclude that one should bet
that recent performance _is_ an indicator of future performance.

While it's not impossible for alternation to be most likely, it requires some
physical process that would explain it. Interestingly, weather in the Central
California often does follow multi-week cycles, with hot inland weather
leading to rising air at the coast, leading to fog flowing inland, leading to
a cooldown[1]. But I don't know of any process that would explain this for
century scale rainfall. Do you?

[1] This article offers an explanation of the "fog cycle", but with the
cautious wording "Until recent years, the conventional explanation for the
fog’s behavior was a simple one". I wonder if there is now better knowledge:
[https://baynature.org/articles/cutting-through-the-
fog/](https://baynature.org/articles/cutting-through-the-fog/)

~~~
cbennett
"An interesting report, but is there any reason to conclude that "we are
due"?"

Yes, El Nino, which may bring torrents of rain this winter to the US west
coast. The combination with epic drought will be disastrous, whether or not if
fulfills the mythic criterion of an "ArkStorm'

FYI: occurrence of rain or lack thereof is not like flipping a coin; this is
more like a chaotic system with non-linear patterns evolving; once we see a
large-scale pattern that occurs, and we identify it recurring through time
such as El Nino, we can spot its tell-tale signs ahead of time and warn folks
that worse may be on the way. Nevertheless, there are no guarantees, all we
can do is wait and watch- But it certainly changes our Prior to know about
these recurrent global-weather-scale patterns.

[http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/09/el-nino-set-
strongest-...](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/09/el-nino-set-
strongest-150913093902800.html)

~~~
nkurz
_occurrence of rain or lack thereof is not like flipping a coin_

Yes, absolutely. El Nino is a fine reason to believe that the pattern will
change. At a decadal scale, there is reason to believe that recent drought is
a predictor of future rain. My point though was that there was not (a priori)
a reason to believe that "It's been 500 years since California has been this
dry" would imply "we are due" for a 1000 year storm.

------
jobu
uBlock didn't allow the new site design at all, and I didn't really like it
either.

Here's the link to their "classic" view of the article:
[http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-
environment/wp/201...](http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-
environment/wp/2015/09/14/scientists-say-its-been-500-years-since-california-
was-this-dry/)

~~~
jrapdx3
Yeah I noticed that too. However, with current Firefox the "Reader View"
worked well, and I was able to read the article just fine.

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kevindeasis
Here is a guy driving away from Anderson Spring fire:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lVPB3HI9Wg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lVPB3HI9Wg)

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olivermarks
It's the last thing on most people's minds right now with the drought, but an
ARkStorm style event this winter (or even just heavy persistent rain and
flooding) could be disastrous for the Sacramento delta levies, which are in a
very delicate state. Hoping for a slow and steady refill of the reservoirs
this winter...

~~~
matheweis
I hate to be the harbinger, but it's shaping up for just that kind of
scenario: "El Nino set to be strongest ever"
[http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/09/el-nino-set-
strongest-...](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/09/el-nino-set-
strongest-150913093902800.html)

~~~
gdubs
The question is whether the "Ridiculously Resilliant Ridge" \-- the name for
the blob of warm water sitting in the pacific -- will continue to prevent the
moisture from reaching the costal states, as it has been doing for some time
now.

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craigyk
Driest surface in 500 years. I wonder how long it's been since the aquifers
have been at their current levels.

------
thaumaturgy
Yeah, everything I read on the current trends in California's climate just
keeps sounding more and more dire. I was stuck inside all weekend due in large
part to thick smoke and ash; I don't want to live in a drought or on the cusp
of a drought every year for the foreseeable future and I don't think it's real
smart to breathe smoke from wildfires year after year either.

California could mitigate a lot of this, and probably will, eventually. But,
it's only been about 6 years since the CRU email leaks led to it being dubbed
"climategate" and a whole bunch of people loudly declared that it was proof
that AGW was a vast climate scientist conspiracy. There's going to be a
tremendous amount of resistance from all angles to any attempts to mitigate
the effects of the climate in California.

So I started looking for work out of state a while ago, and will keep looking.

Nice place, but it would be dumb of me to stay here.

~~~
anigbrowl
Hmm...there's resistance within California from the inland counties that are
heavily Republican, but politically the Democrats are largely in the driving
seat, plus as far as water management goes the coming infrastructure public
works are backed by the voters in a ballot initiative last year, which is
probably politically insurmountable. A sufficiently disastrous flood in the
central valley will sideline the remaining political opposition to a great
degree. Betweent he drought and the El Nino this is going to be a pretty rough
winter which I think will firm up support for mitigation measures.

I'm curious to know what you consider the safest places in terms of
environmental safety and sustainability.

~~~
thaumaturgy
I've no idea, honestly. As a practical matter, first I have to find someplace
I can work. And there are no utopias.

There are a few things I'm not fond of: tornadoes, wildfires, periods of
extended drought, heavy traffic, extremely high crime, dislike for
Californians (Oregon & Montana). A few things I don't mind: cold and snowy
Winters (it's just mountaineering with more infrastructure and support),
regular storm seasons, earthquakes and hurricanes. A few things I really
appreciate: mountains within a couple hours' drive, lots of outdoor
activities, younger and more active and better-educated populations. Maybe
Utah? (But: [http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-utah-
drought-20150530-st...](http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-utah-
drought-20150530-story.html))

Unfortunately, snowfall over the entire Rockies seems to be on a declining
trend
([http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/weather/news/2011-06-10-clima...](http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/weather/news/2011-06-10-climate-
change-global-warming-rockies-snow_n.htm)), so any place that relies on the
Rocky Mountain watershed is going to be dealing with drier conditions for the
foreseeable future.

I'm open to suggestions.

~~~
wtbob
> dislike for Californians (Oregon & Montana)

Have you considered that the dislike for Californians is due to them turning
any state in which a great number of them settle…into California?

It's a perfectly natural process: whenever we leave a place, even if we
dislike some aspects of it, it's still our home. We're liable to find our new
homes just fine, oh 'except for just a few things.' Add up enough ex-pats, and
razor-fine margins on many issues, and suddenly a relatively small number of
people can have a relatively high impact on a state, while the natives
residents look about themselves and wonder what the hell happened to their own
homes.

Those natives then move, and the process repeats itself…

~~~
geebee
Yes, but there may also be something more insidious at work here.

[http://www.washington.edu/uwired/outreach/cspn/Website/Class...](http://www.washington.edu/uwired/outreach/cspn/Website/Classroom%20Materials/Pacific%20Northwest%20History/Lessons/Lesson%201/1.html)

It's an interesting essay, but I would call your attention reason six.

