
Outlier Scenarios: 7% U.S.GDP Growth in 2011? - atularora
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2010/12/outlier_scenari.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+InfectiousGreed+%28Paul+Kedrosky%27s+Infectious+Greed%29
======
zzleeper
I'm getting tired of constantly hearing unrealisticly good predictions from GS
and other institutions with vested interests. (And yes, I know that this is
the _outlier_ scenario)

This reminds me of the earlier article today from Zed Shaw. Why is GS so
optimistic, constantly overestimating growth? Because they know that with
their reports they can influence growth (aka, self-fulfilled profecy, so
common in economics). And with more growth, they have more deals (IPOs, M&Ms,
etc), and thus more money.

------
whiletruefork
While the economics of this are interesting - it will be depressing to see
republicans claim the turn around was due to the actions they've taken since
the mid term elections, and the democrats claiming it's proof what they were
pushing has led to a recovery and ... I should really listen to less talk-
radio.

------
miked
Shorter Kedrosky: "Goldman Sachs says that if lots of Americans start buying
lots and lots of stuff -- which might or might not happen -- then the GDP will
go way up."

No attempt to identify a reasonable set of underlying factors beyond private
deleveraging or to consider countervailing factors. E.g., the widely predicted
10 - 20% continued fall in housing prices as larege numbers of delayed
foreclosures kick in this coming year, with subsequent loss of consumer
confidence.

