
31% of likely voters think US civil war likely within 5 years - mikenyc
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/june_2018/31_think_u_s_civil_war_likely_soon
======
toasterlovin
I can't actually see how a civil war would work mechanically. The right side
of the political divide makes up almost all of the armed forces, first
responders, and police; their civilians also own most of the guns; and they
control the food supply.

Beyond all of that, though, my reading of history is that civil wars usually
have a geographic component. So, there is usually one region (that may be home
to a different ethnic group) which elevates it's political grievances into
actual war. But how would that even work in the United States? This isn't like
the US civil war where it was the North against the South. This would be
geographically isolated urban cores versus their surrounding suburbs and rural
areas.

And, finally, I don't think Americans have the stomach for casualties. Life is
pretty damned good here. So good that we soured on Iraq and Afghanistan after
a few thousand casualties (where we never even had to look at dead bodies,
just flag-draped caskets). Somehow I don't see us being okay with the corpses
of our dead children littering the streets of Los Angeles or Manhattan.

~~~
mikenyc
To me, the interesting thing about these survey results was not that they
convinced me this was actually likely to happen, but rather to contemplate
that 31% of Americans (and likely voters at that) could actually believe this
is likely in the next 5 years.

What does that say about the state of America? As I noted in another comment,
at least somewhat it probably says people aren't very conscious of the
immensity of what a US civil war means. So that speaks to civics and
educational issues, which are real and relevant.

But I would just say that in a society people's feelings matter, whether
rational or irrational. Irrational feelings lead to real world outcomes all
the time.

So even if you think that believing this outcome is likely in the next 5 years
is extremely irrational, the fact that a significant proportion of the voting
population could believe this has real-world implications.

~~~
justin66
> So even if you think that believing this outcome is likely in the next 5
> years is extremely irrational, the fact that a significant proportion of the
> voting population could believe this has real-world implications.

We're in a country where a lot of people believe the president when he says
_three million people_ voted illegally. [1] If you believe in the existence of
those imaginary people, you might wonder what will happen when they take up
arms.

[1] [http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-
meter/statements/2016/nov/...](http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-
meter/statements/2016/nov/28/donald-trump/donald-trumps-pants-fire-claim-
millions-illegal-vo/)

------
SCAQTony
The only scenario I can see of a civil war happening is if it follows the same
template or series of events that occurred in 1860. i.e. Some state or states
declare independence and create their own currency. I don't think that is
going to happen but nationalized terrorism within seem plausible due to the
way some "tribes" are advocating violence against journalists.

~~~
Schumer
Sources on the last point please?

~~~
SCAQTony
"…Right-wing provocateur Milo Yiannopoulos says he was trolling members of the
media when he said he couldn’t wait for “vigilante squads” to attack
journalists. ..." [https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/milo-yiannopoulos-
wa...](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/milo-yiannopoulos-walks-back-
original-call-for-violence-against-journalists-says-he-was-trolling)

"After meeting with North Korean dictator, Trump calls press America's
'biggest enemy'" [http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/13/media/trump-tweet-
media/inde...](http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/13/media/trump-tweet-
media/index.html)

------
dooglius
The ordering of the questions [0] strikes me as lending to a priming [1]
effect, the first two questions evoke memories of media reports of violence on
both sides, which makes the leap to civil war seem more likely by the third
question.

[0]
[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/ques...](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/questions/pt_survey_questions/june_2018/questions_civil_war_june_21_and_24_2018)

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Priming_(psychology)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Priming_\(psychology\))

~~~
mikenyc
I agree. There is some priming in the cadence of the questions.

It's also likely that given the state of civic knowledge and education in the
country that respondents conflated something like "violence" or "minor
fighting with a political tinge" to "civil war" without really understanding
how immense of a thing a US civil war actually would be.

But still, to me, even the idea that a much smaller percentage of Americans
(let's say 15%) could imagine a civil war happening in the next 5 years was
shocking on its face, and worthy of awareness and discussion.

------
cyberpip
Great discussion on
[https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/8t4py1/would...](https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/8t4py1/would_a_regular_us_citizen_in_1860_be_able_to_see/)
recently about the lead up to the American civil war and how people were able
to see it coming.

