
Sell everything; this looks very much like 2008 [pdf] - vincent_s
http://static.guim.co.uk/ni/1452594796380/European-Rates-Weekly-08011.pdf
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vincent_s
“My bullet point themes into 2016 are (remain): o bearish China o bearish
global commodities (hards, softs, fluids). And more specifically . . . o
bearish oil (target $26, then clear risk of $16) o CBs (mostly everywhere)
will ease more o The world has far too much debt to be able to grow well –
global output gap widens o Emerging market majors (outside India & Eastern
Europe) all remain sells o Automation on its way to destroy 30-50% of all jobs
in developed world o Currency war / mercantilism And my new bullet point
themes: Andrew Roberts My old credit crunch mantra makes a comeback: Return of
capital, not return on capital European Rates Weekly | 8 January 2016 Page 3 o
Global disinflation risks turning into global deflation in 2016 o Everyone
thinks ‘goldilocks’. We thought this strongly for >2 years (on our liquidity
theme) but now worry about equities/credit, both huge, multi-year, well held
positions. Negative returns in 2016 are probable, though without a recession
they should be manageable, think -10-20%, rather than a rout o If we see
weaker ‘risk on’ products, the last safe ‘high yielder’ is the EMU periphery.
Our new 0.75% 10y BTP target could prove too high a yield o Risks to 0.16% new
10y bund target are on the downside, not upside o Main risk comes from oil. A
plunge sub $20 would aid consumption”

