
Nine States Face Economic Contraction, Most Since 2009 Crisis - JumpCrisscross
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-02/nine-states-face-economic-contraction-most-since-2009-crisis
======
jeffmk

        1. West Virginia
        2. Pennsylvania
        3. Delaware
        4. Montana
        5. Oklahoma
        6. Vermont
        7. New Jersey
        8. Kentucky
        9. Connecticut

~~~
jdhn
I'm not too surprised by the makeup of this list. West Virginia and Kentucky
are resource extraction states that are primarily focused around coal, and
Oklahoma is focused around oil & gas. New Jersey and Connecticut have high
taxes, and are having a wave of retirees leave and take their spending dollars
with them. Vermont has very low population growth and is also facing a
demographic issue just like Jersey and Connecticut.

~~~
pjc50
The demographic and internal-migratory questions remind me of the EU and the
problems faced by e.g. Greece. I wonder if it will result in a campaign
against internal migration. Is freedom of movement within the United States
explicitly part of the Constitution?

~~~
cossatot
Internal migration is much more common within the US than within the EU, and
societal norms are much more accepting of intra-US relocation.

Based on the data I can gather from a brief search, it looks like in 2017, 58%
of Americans live in the state of their birth [1]. Because many people move
states and then move back (for college or a temporary job or something) then
it's reasonable to think that perhaps 50% of Americans move states at least
once in their lives.

In 2016, 93% of EU residents were living in the nation if their birth; 4% were
from outside the EU and 3% from another EU member nation [2]. (In the US,
14.4% of the population are immigrants, and this is ~20% of the total global
immigrant population [3].)

Furthermore (and in the absence of any supporting data), I think that the
assimilation process is for the most part easier for Americans moving between
states, especially those who are at least second generation American. While
there are definitely strong cultural differences between US regions, we
generally all regard each other as American (although this is surely different
for those from American territories such as Puerto Rico, Guam or American
Samoa). Relocation may also be quite challenging for minorities, especially
those moving to whiter states. But for the typical white American moving
states, it is probably easier to relocate than for an Italian moving from
Calabria or Napoli to Lombardia.

I've lived in 8 states and I think that some half-hearted jokes about dating
cousins or eating possum are about the most trouble I've gotten by hailing
from the Ozarks. In my experience there are also larger biases against
neighboring states (sports rivals) than far-away states. Freud's narcissism of
small difference and all that.

That being said, since at least the Reconstruction era following the Civil
War, there has been some local to regional resistance to internal migration.
Interestingly, today much of the resistance is put forth by residents of less
economically developed regions against those from more well-off places moving
in, pricing the locals out, and changing the culture. These changes are a sort
of Californication, the gentrification of mountain towns by richer and more
liberal whites, rather than poorer immigrants bringing down property values or
taking manual labor jobs. While there is little by way of legislation against
this, there is talk of some [3].

[1]: [https://www.citylab.com/life/2019/03/mobile-stuck-us-
geograp...](https://www.citylab.com/life/2019/03/mobile-stuck-us-geography-
map-where-americans-moving/584083/)

[2]: [https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-
explained/index.php...](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-
explained/index.php/People_in_the_EU_-_statistics_on_origin_of_residents)

[3]:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_the_United_Stat...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_the_United_States)

[4]: [https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-11-10/go-
back-...](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-11-10/go-back-to-
california-wave-of-newcomers-fuels-backlash-in-boise)

~~~
blacksmith_tb
People willing to relocate for work benefits employers, though this tends
isolate individuals from their extended families (which may seem like a plus,
until you, say, have kids but no grandparents to shuttle them around; or
unwell elders without anyone left to care for them).

------
thathndude
If this is true/accurate, and for the reasons others note, we’re right to be
skeptical, what makes it BS in my mind is the effort to suggest that it’s
indicative of a systemic issue.

It may well be that is the precursor to a nationwide contract. But looking at
the list of states, this also looks like a simple continuation of the ongoing
shifting in populations to larger, urban economic cores. The only one that
surprised me a little is PA, but that’s because I’m in Ohio, and I forget that
the East part of PA has a lot of big economic centers luring people and
industry away.

~~~
bilbo0s
> _The only one that surprised me a little is PA, but that’s because I’m in
> Ohio, and I forget that the East part of PA has a lot of big economic
> centers luring people and industry away._

Wait? Wouldn't that mean economic growth for PA as a whole? Why would big
economic centers luring people and industry to them result in contraction?

------
leereeves
Bloomberg sure is working hard to talk down the economy. Throughout 2019 they
were talking about recession.

[https://duckduckgo.com/?q=bloomberg+recession+2019&t=ffab&at...](https://duckduckgo.com/?q=bloomberg+recession+2019&t=ffab&atb=v63-1&ia=web)

~~~
wozniacki
He's been doing this since atleast 2016. I wouldn't rule out he having sights
on a presidential run since atleast then. He did form an exploratory committee
once before and abandoned the run when it showed he didnt have enough
support.[1] [2]

    
    
       Stocks keep climbing and climbing, but Michael
       Bloomberg isn't sure why.
       "I cannot for the life of me understand why the market 
        keeps going up," the former New York City mayor
        said Tuesday in an interview with CBS News' Anthony 
        Mason.
    
       "Our economy has some real challenges," he continued.
       "The infrastructure's falling apart. We're destroying jobs
        with technology. We are keeping the best and the 
        brightest from around the world from coming to America
        to create new jobs and create new businesses.
    
       "All of those things would give you pause to worry
        about the future."[3]
    
    

[1]

Former New York mayor Bloomberg mulls presidential run on heels of Trump surge

[https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jan/23/michael-
bloo...](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jan/23/michael-bloomberg-
considers-third-party-presidential-bid)

[2]

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg Will Not Run for President

[https://time.com/4250295/michael-bloomberg-president-
trump-c...](https://time.com/4250295/michael-bloomberg-president-trump-cruz/)

[3]

BLOOMBERG: 'I cannot for the life of me understand why the market keeps going
up'

[https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-news-michael-
bl...](https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-news-michael-
bloomberg-2017-9)

~~~
alamaslah
Why is this being downvoted?

It is a interesting contribution and gives valuable insight into the article
that has been posted.

~~~
ianai
HN tends to take a dim view of political discussions in my experience.

There have been a number of indicators of a slowing economy for quite some
time now. There was at least one run towards bonds in recent months. The Fed
has been famously weighing its rate decisions sighting troubling economic
outlooks. The yield curve inverted. GDP figures are trending downward. This is
all just off the top of my head.

~~~
merpnderp
Most importantly of all, a stagnating economy is likely the only way anyone in
the Democratic primary can beat Trump. And there's not an editor in the
country who isn't carefully weighing this when picking what finance stories to
run.

------
endorphone
Why is every single reply thus far head in the sand, fingers in the ears
denialism? This is a report that simply repeats what the Federal Reserve Bank
of Philadelphia predicts.

The US economy is cyclical, and it's had a very good boom cycle (which was
sweetened by QE, historically low interest rates, AND a trillion dollar
deficit, all absolutely incredible during full-employment and full-growth. The
US is now at a point where during a downturn it has few tools left to do
anything to respond to a slowing of the economy, and where that trillion
dollar deficit is going to look really foolish in retrospect)

The whole _" fake news!"_ retort to everything on here has grown incredibly
depressing, and profoundly self-defeating. Short of legitimate evidence to the
contrary, it should be immediately shouted down

~~~
metalliqaz
Humans have a natural tendency to discount things that are unpleasant. A site
like this one contains a lot of people that have a lot to lose if the economy
makes a downturn.

This kind of blind spot was featured prominently in The Big Short, especially
the Brownfield Capital plot line (2015 film).

[1] [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negativity_bias#Decision-
makin...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negativity_bias#Decision-making)

~~~
bilbo0s
> _Humans have a natural tendency to discount things that are unpleasant._

I think it might be more accurate to say we discount things that do not
support our world views. If something is unpleasant, but supports our world
view, even if that thing is not entirely true we give it a lot of weight. If
the unpleasantness does not support our worldview however, well, yeah, even if
it is completely true, we tend to dismiss that information.

~~~
metalliqaz
I think what you say is true, but I was referring intentionally to unpleasant
things in general. It goes beyond worldviews. There are plenty of things that
don't really have to be filtered through a worldview to be bad, like losing
your house to a flood, or having your entire retirement wiped out, or being
under-insured when you get cancer. Even professional analysts tend to lowball
the risk on doomsday events.

------
barrygwn
Now that Michael Bloomberg is running for president, I can't help but question
if there is an ulterior motive behind each article at Bloomberg.com

~~~
rjtavares
Honestly, I assume all media outlets have ulterior motives behind each article
(ranging from the simple "catering to their specific audience with facts
supporting their view" to more nefarious "willfully manipulating the people
with falsehoods").

~~~
Dirlewanger
A good start would be to ban wholesale both Bloomberg and Washington Post
articles from HN. Nothing from those publications should be trusted.

~~~
smileysteve
> and Washington Post

Is Jeff Bezos running for Political office too?

You just moved the line from running for Presidential party nomination,
skipped over mayor of major city, and jumped right to billionaires.

Add on; If all of a sudden you can't be wealthy and own (part of?) a media
company, it really hurts the quality of journalism; you'd be left with small
town or independent blogs; more susceptible to fake news -- and, more
concerning, fear of publishing.

~~~
pjc50
On the contrary, the media consolidation that has left papers in the hands of
a few individuals has been tremendously bad for journalism. The only safe
types are either diverse private ownership (more than two owners) or blind
trusts. Yes, this rules out a lot of existing news outlets.

Virtually all the UK papers are now narrowly owned by individual billionaires
whose agendas are very visible in the paper.

~~~
elliekelly
Blind trusts are a political fiction.

------
jxramos
I'm always leery when media begins to tout a new word. Maybe _economic
contraction_ has some history to it and a precise definition, but maybe its
being coopted or is void and ready to fill with whatever new line of rhetoric
we will soon be assaulted with.

Would be great to have a headlines database to see trending terms and when
something is really unprecedented in headlines.

~~~
endorphone
"Economic contraction" is an economic word with many, many decades of broad
use behind it. Your own personal ignorance to it doesn't turn it into some
media scheme that you have outed.

~~~
jxramos
Definitely personal ignorance to the trends and history around it. I've
vaguely heard of it before, but can't recall a time I've actually seen it in a
headline. It's definitely not unprecedented though
([https://news.google.com/search?q=%22economic%20contraction%2...](https://news.google.com/search?q=%22economic%20contraction%22&hl=en-
US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen)).

I thought the more interesting bit was the ability to scan headlines. I'm not
claiming to have outed any media scheme, but that's a pretty catchy phrase
you've come up with.

