
The Imprisoner’s Dilemma - lujim
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-imprisoners-dilemma/?ex_cid=538fb
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IIAOPSW
I would go a step beyond just "diminishing returns". Higher than optimal
incarceration rate actively creates more crime by way of 1-2 million broken
homes.

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ggchappell
I'm a little worried about this article. It seems to me that it might be
emphasizing certain aspects of the data that tend to support a conclusion that
is relatively popular in many circles. (Indeed, I'd like to see the U.S.
imprison fewer people; but that doesn't mean we should distort the data.)

In particular, the conclusions are largely about the _marginal_ effect of
increased incarceration rates in the _last couple of decades_. So: we should
not imprison more people than we are now. Fine. But that is not the same as
saying that the huge increase in incarceration since the mid-1970s did not
cause a large -- and highly beneficial -- decrease in crime.

According to the graphs, incarceration rates went up by about 60% in the 1990s
and have remained more or less flat ever since. But rates _more than doubled_
in the 1980s. This fact, and its possible impact on crime rates, apparently go
completely unexamined in the article.

So don't think this article is up to the usual standards of
fivethirtyeight.com -- unless I'm missing something.

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jhwhite
I thought I have read that with CompStat, precincts also started fudging what
crimes they were writing up. Major offenses were getting written up by police
as smaller offenses to "cook the books".

