
Predictions about 2020 made in 2010 - starik36
http://web.archive.org/web/20100414011424/http:/angryhacker.com/blog/archive/2010/01/03/14-predictions-for-2020.aspx
======
aazaa
Reminds me of the line from Fredrik Pohl:

"A good science fiction story should be able to predict not the automobile but
the traffic jam."

The author has focused mostly on predicting the car. But I think it's much
more thought-provoking to try to predict the traffic jam.

For example, the author was spot on regarding batteries:

> There will be a massively noticeable jump in the battery technology. If
> today, we are struggling to get the hybrid plug-ins on the road, in 10
> years, electric vehicles will rule. Why? Because right now there are way too
> many people are working on improving the batteries – someone is bound to
> make a breakthrough. Most new vehicles sold will be electric.

What traffic jam-like consequences happen when every car is electric? Unless
solar makes the giant leap forward predicted by the author, demands on the
power grid shoot through the roof. That kind of centralization can make
attacks of the kind described in the new book "Sandworm" even worse. The book
describes the ways in which malware is being used to bring down critical
infrastructure like power grids.

This one's also worth mentioning:

> Facebook will be history. People will simply get bored with it. It will be
> replaced by another fad.

Let's say it's true. What traffic jams could this cause? One that comes to
mind is that what replaces Facebook is even worse along one or more axes. Less
privacy. Greater addiction. Ever more centralization of the Web.

