

The Next Evolution of SCOTUS Predictions - dalek2point3
http://joshblackman.com/blog/2014/07/29/the-next-evolution-of-scotus-predictions-predicting-7000-cases-over-60-years-with-71-accuracy/

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comex
So the algorithm is correct 70% of the time, while (later in the article) the
Supreme Court reverses 65.9% of its cases?

This is not much of an improvement over always guessing "reverse".

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aaronharnly
Yeah, I'm surprised to see them repeatedly reporting accuracy, when recall and
precision are so widely established as the appropriate measures of binary
classification quality.

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djent
Not very impressive, I would say, at 70%. Although there are some data points
at 90% that interest me.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds)

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dang
Url changed from [http://arstechnica.com/science/2014/07/algorithm-predicts-
us...](http://arstechnica.com/science/2014/07/algorithm-predicts-us-supreme-
court-decisions-70-of-time/), which points to this.

