
Counting Down to the End of Moore’s Law - mcav
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/22/counting-down-to-the-end-of-moores-law/
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grandalf
Doesn't this story run about once every 18 months?

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RiderOfGiraffes
Ouch - you just made me snort coffee through my nose. I wish I could up-mod
that dozens of times.

It's interesting to go back to Moore's original words. Quoting from Wikipedia:

    
    
        The complexity for minimum component costs
        has increased at a rate of roughly a factor
        of two per year ... Certainly over the short
        term this rate can be expected to continue,
        if not to increase. Over the longer term, the
        rate of increase is a bit more uncertain,
        although there is no reason to believe it
        will not remain nearly constant for at least
        10 years. That means by 1975, the number of
        components per integrated circuit for minimum
        cost will be 65,000. I believe that such a
        large circuit can be built on a single wafer.
    

For reference, the transistor count has been roughly doubling every two years
since 1971.

