
Timing your startup - bjonathan
http://cdixon.org/2010/11/07/timing-your-startup/
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madh
This reminds me a Steve Jobs quote:

"Again, you can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them
looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in
your future. You have to trust in something - your gut, destiny, life, karma,
whatever."

from [http://www.quora.com/Steve-Jobs/What-are-the-best-Steve-
Jobs...](http://www.quora.com/Steve-Jobs/What-are-the-best-Steve-Jobs-
quotations)

~~~
rguzman
This is also known as hindsight bias.

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias>

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catechu
I don't think Jobs is concerned about retrospectively predicting the successes
he had. Rather, I think he wants to emphasize their inherent _un_
predictability, together with the assertion that such unpredictability doesn't
matter. So it's not quite hindsight bias.

~~~
michael_dorfman
Actually, Jobs is paraphrasing Kierkegaard, who wrote _"Livet skal forstås
baglaens, men leves forlaens"_ (Life can only be understood backwards, but it
must be lived forwards), and then advocated _"Springet"_ (the Leap, usually
translated as "the Leap of Faith".)

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karterk
Being there at the right place at the right time definitely makes a
difference. But - somehow I feel that there is always an element of luck
involved in deciding that. You don't want to end up waiting and waiting and
realize, oops you were too late!

~~~
dmix
Exactly, there were examples of startups who had a product at just the right
time. But I've never heard of startups who _waited_ until the time was right
and then succeeded.

Given the nature of startups and short runways, it's a gamble for a startup to
depend on having the "timing right". There are much safer and proven methods
for building companies, but its fun to think about.

~~~
erikstarck
Uhm. You should read Founder at Work. What everyone is saying is that
persistence is key, not luck.

Here's another quote, not from the book:

"Timing, perseverance, and ten years of trying will eventually make you look
like an overnight success." - Biz Stone, Co-founder, Twitter

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8ren
Yes, _the harder I work, the luckier I get._ I think of a startup as a game
with a 1-in-10 chance - but you can play as often as you like. The odds of
failing _n_ times in a row is _.9^n_ \- so the odds improve _fast_. And of
course hopefully you'll learn _something_ general along the way to improve
your odds, and leverage specific money/tech/contacts/market presence too. If
you're persistent, failing begins to look extremely unlikely.

What _can_ stop you (apart from giving up) is if you can't (or won't) _learn_
some key thing, or can't (or won't) _do_ some key thing. Which is why having
mentors/colleagues is very helpful (for learning); and having co-founders and
being able to employ/outsource/team-work is very helpful (for doing).

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8ren
_The Innovator's Dilemma_ is full of inspirational stories of markets
discovered retrospectively. An example off the top of my head is honda
motorcycles being used as off-road recreational vehicles - this market was
discovered by a sales rep observing customers doing it. This could only be
apparent some time after the product was created, and sold.

Another is Xerography being rejected by IBM after careful (and accurate)
market assessments. The market significance only appeared after Xerography was
actually in use. (from _The Billions that Nobody Wanted_.)

So when pundits (not cdixon) tell you it's impossible to discover a market
retrospectively, they are simply wrong. But they're right that it's risky; and
that it's much safer to launch with buyers waiting (of course!). I think the
key take-home is that: a business needs customers. (Sounds obvious? Yet it's a
perennial downfall of engineer-lead startups.) Finding customers (aka
marketing) is at least as much work as creating the product in the first
place. To put it in perspective: if creating the product takes a few
prototypes over a few months or years, it's probably reasonable to put
comparable effort into marketing: a few markets and 4 P's over a few months or
years. The danger is when you exhaust yourself engineering it, and collapse at
the finish line - just when the second marathon starts, of marketing it. (of
course it's even better to run both marathons simultaneously... to torture the
metaphor).

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mailarchis
I remember watching a Youtube video of a talk by Jawed Karim on Youtube. He
talked about proliferation of digital videos as video cams prices were coming
down, broadband was cheaper and flash was something present in most browsers.
Guess most video sharing site before that used windows media player and real
player.

Guess this is the link <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nssfmTo7SZg>

~~~
rhizome
I probably first saw the "fat guy tearing up his cubicle computer" video in
RealMedia, but the simple history is that before flash was prevalent there
wasn't really a such thing as a "video sharing site." Modems were still the
primary means of internet access 7-8 years ago and codecs weren't yet
optimized for online access.

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mbansal14
I would prefer looking at it this way: "Being at the right place, at the right
time".

Neither you can sit and wait for the right time nor you can try to build
something for which the timing is right today.

Its more about being prepared for the future. Understand the future and build
something you feel excited/passionate about. Now just be fully prepared to
strike with full impact as soon as the iron is hot.

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prawn
Timing your startup? Do it ASAP. If it fails, do it again.

I doubt very many startups at all have timed their run intentionally. More
likely, they've been inspired, run to market before their motivation fizzled,
and things have fallen into place (right timing, met the right people, etc).

~~~
michael_dorfman
_Timing your startup? Do it ASAP. If it fails, do it again._

I think this is a bit too glib. If it is evident to you that the timing is not
right for your startup, the prudent thing is not to launch blindly, praying
for a miracle or a chance to try again after failure-- rather, to adjust your
idea/product/service to fit the market conditions.

~~~
prawn
Sure, but don't sit there like you're about to jump rope waiting for the
perfect timing that may never come. For those facing enough challenges
already, the last thing you need is another fear or excuse.

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joshfraser
You want to be early, but not too early. Ideally, you want to be the guys
who've spent enough time thinking about the space to appreciate the
opportunity when it strikes.

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andrew_wc_brown
I think you just have to have a great team that knows when the iron is hot and
where to strike it.

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eli
Seems to me that you can't possibly know if your timing is correct except in
hindsight.

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mahmud
What if you could _really_ understand why others have failed, and honestly
evaluate your ability to overcome those difficulties.

He notes the higher-quality flash player, proliferation of broad-band and
digital video cameras, and growth in blogs that wanted to embed video. If you
were the Youtube founders, and were able to correctly asses the situation,
then you COULD have foresight.

~~~
eli
Perhaps you're right. But most people were still on dial-up in 2005 and most
DV cameras were bad and expensive. Who really could have known that would have
been enough? I'm sure people earlier thought that the proliferation of webcams
meant they would succeed.

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cool-RR
Maybe the early startups should just be more patient?

~~~
davidedicillo
The problem is that when the money run out, patience won't save you.

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jonathanjaeger
That and, as Chris Dixon said, it's hard to know when these things will be
successful at scale.

