

Prediction: Amazon will take over Android app distribution - switz
http://www.marco.org/2011/11/22/amazon-stole-the-android-app-market

======
w1ntermute
> A truly open facet of Android — the open-source codebase, minus Google’s
> apps — has enabled one company with a strong market position to step in,
> effectively close it, and make themselves the gatekeeper. And as gatekeepers
> go, Apple looks quite benevolent by comparison.

Wow, he's almost as bad as Gruber. Why is someone who admittedly has little to
no experience with Android (because he despises it so much) making predictions
about its future?

~~~
benatkin
> Why is someone who admittedly has little to no experience with Android
> (because he despises it so much) making predictions about its future?

I'm pretty sure that the average technically-inclined Android user knows more
about the Android than the average technically-inclined iPhone user. But
Marco's experience building _and successfully marketing_ mobile apps skews it
quite a bit.

Also it's quite common to be familiar with something you despise, for instance
in war people become familiar with the enemy.

Finally, to answer your question, he made the prediction because he thinks a
lot. He shared it because he didn't see anyone else saying it. If numerous
Android experts were already saying it, I don't think he would have bothered.

------
zrgiu_
There is no way amazon's few millions of tablets can compete with the hundred
of millions of phones AND tablets that come with Google apps preinstalled. To
say that _amazon will take over android app distribution_ is a very very far
stretch.

Comparison of downloads for one of my apps:

Android Market: 25.000 downloads / day

Amazon AppStore: 50 downloads / day

I'll believe that Amazon's AppStore is big (for everyone, not just for the
daily featured app) when I see it.

~~~
earl
Amazon AppStore is, I believe, the biggest android tablet app store. And
growing. If you believe numbers that come from Gruber (and his math seems
reasonable), as of July there were roughly 1.2MM android tablets [1]. Kindle
Fire has sold, or will this quarter, 6MM units [2]. Thus Marco's hypothesis
seems reasonable:

(1) if you want to make money on android tablets, you have to go where the
tablets are. That is Amazon's appstore. They are, by volume, already 3-4 times
the rest of the android tablet market. And this gap will probably continue to
row. I would be surprised if, by this time next year, they do not have 10-15
times the marketshare of any other android tablet. Remember every other
android tablet manufacturer has to make money on the tablet. Amazon probably
loses money in order to make it back when you buy books, movies, magazines,
music, etc, from them. Thus their tablet will almost certainly be cheaper, and
hence more common, than any other android tablet.

(2) this will bootstrap their presence on android phones, especially once they
release their rumored android phone. Which will be shitty but really really
cheap (my prediction).

[1]
[http://mobilechannels.eu/index.php?option=com_content&vi...](http://mobilechannels.eu/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=328:how-
many-android-tablets-out-there-&catid=60&Itemid=121)

[2] [http://news.cnet.com/8301-13924_3-57327907-64/amazon-
kindle-...](http://news.cnet.com/8301-13924_3-57327907-64/amazon-kindle-fire-
shipments-upped-to-6-million-in-quarter/)

~~~
fpgeek
Even if you ignore all of the issues with Gruber's math (non-Honeycomb tablets
matter a great deal, for instance, especially when you're trying to understand
the impact of the Kindle Fire), as of July is a very, very out-of-date number.
As of the beginning if November, ASUS alone has sold 1.2 million Transformers
[1]. A better number is 6 million Android tablets (from Andy Rubin at AsiaD)
[2], though that still leaves out important slices of the Android tablet
market like the B&N Nooks.

Putting this together, if Amazon hits their (rumored) goal of selling over 5
million Kindle Fires, they'll certainly get a substantial slice of the Android
tablet market and quite possibly a majority among US users (depending on what
you count, like Nooks). Nevertheless, there will still be a larger slice of
Android tablets with Google services and the Android Market, and the Android
Market will be dominant outside the US (e.g. if you believe the NPD numbers
ASUS might well have sold over 90% of their tablets outside the US [3]).

[1]
[http://www.maximumpc.com/article/news/asus_eyes_18_million_t...](http://www.maximumpc.com/article/news/asus_eyes_18_million_tablet_shipments_2011)

[2] [http://www.theverge.com/2011/10/19/2500959/6-million-
android...](http://www.theverge.com/2011/10/19/2500959/6-million-android-
tablet-andy-rubin)

[3]
[http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/11/22/npd.shows.hp.l...](http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/11/22/npd.shows.hp.leading.us.tablets.for.most.of.2011/)

~~~
earl
Thanks. I found estimates of 3.4MM android tablets as of mid October [1].
Pretty dismal figures or Google would be trumpeting them. Still, I think most
of my point holds -- if Amazon sells 5MM kindles they won't just have a good
slice, they'll have over half the market. And if your outside the US figures
are correct, Amazon will hold an even bigger slice of people who can afford
and will purchase android tablet apps.

[1] [http://www.slashgear.com/googles-honeycomb-offensive-
musters...](http://www.slashgear.com/googles-honeycomb-offensive-musters-
just-3-4m-tablets-14188065/)

~~~
fpgeek
Also, don't be so quick to conclude Amazon will have over half even the US
market. You're forgetting to count the Nooks (which have to be counted if
you're counting Kindle Fires, of course). The best number I've found is about
3 million from March 2011 [1], with B&N claiming an unspecified "millions" at
the Nook Tablet launch.

That means, to win in the US at the end of the year (since they're not
competing internationally), Amazon has to beat:

* ~3 million Nook colors sold as of March 2011 +

* Nook Colors sold between March 2011 and the end of the year +

* ~1 million Android tablets sold through October 2011 (NPD numbers excluding TouchPad) +

* Android tablets sold in November and December

Theoretically, 5 million might be enough for Amazon, but you'd have to think:

* that Nook Color sales collapsed soon after March

* the Nook Tablet will flop

* Android tablet vendors can't even replicate their sales-to-date during the holiday season (even though there are new quad-core models and cheaper 7-inch models, among other things)

Personally, I think the more interesting race is Kindle vs Nook one-on-one.
Nook, of course, has the early lead, but Kindle is selling faster. I think
everyone expects Kindle to win eventually (absent a game-changing move by
B&N), but will it be this year?

[1] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nook_Color>

------
fpgeek
Um, the Amazon Appstore will have limited relevance as long as it is US-only.
Even the number of people who will sideload apps onto their Kindle Fires will
dwarf the number of people who figure out how to get to Amazon's Appstore
outside the US.

~~~
foobarbazetc
Why would anyone _want_ the Amazon Appstore? It's horrible.

~~~
fpgeek
Free App of the Day, mostly. There are also a few exclusives, though, like the
official "Super Why" app (which my toddler adores).

------
bad_user
In regards to this prediction, there's an elephant in the room.

The power of Android comes from it being used by multiple vendors. That's the
reason why it exceeded iOS in numbers. And tablets sales are not so
flattering, but I'm already seeing Samsung doing a pretty good job and I'm
sure others will jump in.

So what makes anybody think that Amazon will do better than Apple?

This makes no sense.

~~~
simonw
"So what makes anybody think that Amazon will do better than Apple?"

I don't know if they'll do better than apple, but the Fire is half the price
of an iPad and is being heavily promoted to Amazon's enormous user base in the
run up to Christmas.

~~~
bad_user
I have no doubt the Kindle Fire will be a success, but we are talking here
about Amazon overtaking the Android's app distribution, as if Amazon could do
that by any stretch of imagination.

So what makes anybody think that Amazon will do better than Apple?

This is relevant, because for Amazon to take charge, either one of these 2
things have to happen: (1) Amazon should be so successful as to make
irrelevant the other Android device makers OR (2) Amazon should make the
device makers use their own Appstore

I'm not seeing (2) happening and as far as (1) is concerned, what can Amazon
do that Apple couldn't? If price is the only issue, that didn't stop expensive
Galaxy S phones from being sold, in spite of iTunes and in spite of a general
consensus that iPhones are better.

------
raldi
It would have been nice if you'd prepended "Prediction: " to your headline.

------
mikedougherty
You'll have to get developers on board, I think.
[http://shiftyjelly.wordpress.com/2011/08/02/amazon-app-
store...](http://shiftyjelly.wordpress.com/2011/08/02/amazon-app-store-rotten-
to-the-core/)

~~~
res0nat0r
I really wish this blog post would quit being passed around as Amazon screwing
every developer in the world over. I don't know how you can rationally believe
that they would offer to give your app away to thousands of people who have no
intention of spending any money on the app besides the fact that it is free
for the day, and just handing over free cash based on the random number of
people who clicked 'download' that day.

The whole point of being featured as the Free App of The Day is for exposure.
Not monetary handouts.

~~~
mikedougherty
I'm not expecting Amazon to hand out money to developers. But, as a developer*
, I don't want to put myself in a situation where my work (that I would have
otherwise charged for) is being given away for free.

Conversely, as a user, if there aren't quality free apps in the amazon store,
why would I use it in the first place? I can get the same content from the
built-in Market.

So, from both a developer and user standpoint I see no reason why Amazon
should "take over Android app distribution".

* Hypothetical, I don't develop for mobile at this time.

------
kgutteridge
Inclined to agree Amazon might garner a substantial lead for Android tablet
app distribution, but theres still an awful lot of phones, compared to tablets
and I for one cannot see this changing in the short term.

One good thing to note is Android 4.0, is asking for credit card details on
initial start up now, so hopefully paid users++ when it comes to the Google
Market, which might also help quell the myth of Android users "don't buy apps"
which I feel at the moment is self reinforcing by the fact most published apps
choose to ad support

~~~
fpgeek
Beyond that, Ice Cream Sandwich unifies "phone" and "tablet" apps (a
distinction that already makes much less sense in an era with large, 720p
"phones"). That completely changes his inferred dynamics of the Android app
stores. I think the Android Market and the Amazon Appstore (and GetJar and
Handango and ...) and direct sales from developers will happily coexist for
the foreseeable future.

~~~
notatoad
The distinction between phone and tablet apps on android has always been
pretty blurry, ICS is about unifying the operating system features, not the
apps. Talking about a 'tablet app store' is silly, even ignoring ice cream
sandwich.

~~~
fpgeek
I agree talking about a "tablet app store" is silly (note the quotes around
"phone" and "tablet") since many Android apps scale quite nicely for both form
factors and more will with time, but, sadly, the Honeycomb detour confused
people (especially for iOS-influenced outsiders).

------
foobarbazetc
I fucking hope not.

Amazon are the most developer-hostile company in existence.

They make Apple's App Store look like a utopia of freedom and openness.

------
mrschwabe
Excellent assessment. Can't see it happening on the scale you have suggested,
since it is unlikely Google will ever lose influence on more than half the
marketshare of the Android app ecosystem....

Yet another equally plausible scenario would be an eventual deal between
Amazon and Google. In wherby Amazon would acquire / take-over the Android
brand and replace Google's role as leader of this platform. Cause some of us
have a suspicion that Google will eventually transition their focus to 100%
Chrome anyway; 'dropping Android' and/or selling whatever control it currently
has on it to another company. Amazon seems ready.

~~~
bad_user
Google giving up on Android for Chrome makes no sense.

Taking control away from other companies over the future of mobile phones is
the biggest reason why Google released Android, a genius move nonetheless.
It's the same reason why they have been paying shitloads of money to Mozilla,
it's the same reason why they released Chrome ... to make Google's search the
default.

And Chrome is nice and all, with Chrome OS being an interesting experiment,
but the importance of Chrome pales in comparison with Android - their biggest
success since GMail.

I also do not think Amazon will take over anything. The power of Android comes
from being used by multiple vendors. That's the reason why Android exceeded
iOS in numbers.

Really, what makes anybody think that Amazon can do better than Apple?

------
dave1619
Amazon also has an app review process that slows down development for
developers. This will keep many developers preferring the Android Market.

~~~
estel
As a developer, I've had horrible, horrible experiences with the Amazon
Appstore that will keep me away for many months yet; with apps being rejected
and moved through all stages of the feedback process without so much as a
whimper of feedback from Amazon. Genuinely the worst "customer" experience I
can recall.

------
nhangen
I agree. I've been waiting for this moment since the Android launched. Where
the Google version of the Android store has started to get the ball rolling,
Amazon's 1 click purchase is going to take that snowball and turn it into an
avalanche.

Granted, I'm still an iOS dev at heart, but I'm jumping into Android dev (for
Amazon) with both feet.

------
Tichy
So there will be an Amazon phone soon?

------
shareme
He forgot one major point..

Google Appstore is slightly curated to remove harmful apps by a system built
by skilled engineers. Amazon has no system setup to scan for harmful apps and
to remove them from their market.

And.. yeah there is an and..Kindle Fire is a tablet bastardization in that its
a tablet off the phone code base not android 4.0..that means some app
rewriting to put it in the Amazon store as Amazon does not use Google services
such as License verification, Google maps, etc. The offer by amazon to
developers would have to be very compelling to get developers to spend time
rewriting applications. That offer is not compelling yet..

Its more likely that the two parties would partner to do android app
distribution rather than Amazon taking over..

