
Researchers say surge in cars at Wuhan hospitals may indicate outbreak in fall - ilamont
https://abcnews.go.com/International/satellite-data-suggests-coronavirus-hit-china-earlier-researchers/story?id=71123270
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OldHand2018
The United States has an "Influenza-Like-Illness" surveillance system in
place. In my area, if you look at the data [0], the 2019-2020 season was
already above average by week 42 or 43 (October 2019). By December 2019, it
had significantly spiked, but was similar to the 2017-2018 season. It wasn't
until late January or early February 2020 that it had outpaced 2017-2018 and
by then the world already knew it was Covid-19.

We are looking at historical information with knowledge that wasn't available
at that time. You have to be generous in interpreting what you see because of
this. This analysis of Wuhan hospitals needs to be more than 2018 vs 2019.
What about 2017, 2016, etc?

[0] [http://www.dph.illinois.gov/topics-services/diseases-and-
con...](http://www.dph.illinois.gov/topics-services/diseases-and-
conditions/influenza/influenza-surveillance)

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scarmig
Very interesting. Our view of the dynamics of the disease would be upended if,
in fact, Wuhan hospitals were having to deal with three figures of coronavirus
patients in October or even earlier. If that's the case, it had probably
established itself in most of the world's major cities by December; if that's
so, why did we have to wait until March to start seeing the mass outbreaks?

I'd be curious to see if there were surges in cars at other major Chinese
cities, and how delayed they were compared to Wuhan.

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everybodyknows
>It is scheduled to be posted Monday morning on “Dash,” Harvard’s preprint
server for medical papers.

>On Monday morning the website for "Dash" suffered a temporary outage.

A link is provided, draws a blank page for me:

[https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42669767](https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42669767)

