
Hindsight – it's not just for past events (2014) - Tomte
http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2014/may/10/hindsight-in-advance-premortem-this-column-change-life
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TillE
I've very often found that people will speak dismissively of "hindsight", when
in fact there were many people beforehand pointing out exactly what was likely
to go wrong.

As the article suggests, it's usually not even very hard to think about things
from different perspectives.

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mikeash
This came up in discussion about the Challenger explosion. Basically: the
O-ring problem is obvious now, but how were they to know at the time that this
one problem was the one they had to address, among the thousands of other
issues they were dealing with?

But if you go back and look at it, that was a loud problem with people saying
"astronauts are going to die if you don't fix this," and there wasn't anything
else of similar urgency.

Hindsight bias is definitely common. "They should have known!" But so is a
sort of anti-hindsight bias. "They never could have known!"

