
Apple Plans Giant High-End iPhone, Lower-Priced Model - uptown
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-26/apple-is-said-to-plan-giant-high-end-iphone-lower-priced-model
======
oflannabhra
> Despite months of breathless hype, the iPhone X hasn’t sold as well as
> expected since its debut last year. Apple sold 77.3 million iPhones in the
> final quarter of 2017, below analysts’ projections of 80.2 million units.
> Some consumers were turned off by the iPhone X’s $1,000 price despite liking
> the design even as they wanted something more cutting-edge than the cheaper
> iPhone 8. With its next lineup, Apple is seeking to rekindle sales by
> offering a model for everyone.

This seems like color commentary that isn't supported by their sources, or
data. I'm not sure how they are supporting this statement. Apple's recent
quarterly earnings [0] showed iPhone sales as (essentially) stable, year over
year. ASP increased to $800 dollars (!) which would point to the iPhone X
doing relatively well, despite not being available for the entire quarter.

Even beyond that, there is no way for Apple to begin product development at a
point _after_ they saw the Q4 results. There is far to much lead-time required
for them to be able to wait until now to do so.

My guess is that 1) the rumors of these 2 new models are true, 2) Apple
committed to this product roadmap a long time ago, and 3) Bloomberg is adding
it's own spin to make the leaks more salacious.

[0] - [https://sixcolors.com/post/2018/02/apple-reports-its-
holiday...](https://sixcolors.com/post/2018/02/apple-reports-its-
holiday-2017-earnings-today/)

~~~
akvadrako
There is a decent amount of evidence that Apple's sales from the iPhone X
(specifically) are less than expected, including 2-for-1 deals and Samsung
cutting production of OLEDs. At the same time the margins on the X are better
than ever.

I agree it's unnecessary commentary, but based in fact without too much
speculation.

~~~
oflannabhra
I haven't seen any iPhone X 2-for-1 deals, in the US at least. Samsung's OLED
production glut can't be pinned solely on Apple [0]. Most of the "Apple
slashes iPhone X production forecast" rumors seem to be... unreliable at best
[1] [2].

[0] - [http://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-
apple/2018/02/apples-i...](http://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-
apple/2018/02/apples-iphone-x-is-the-instant-scapegoat-for-samsungs-failure-
to-win-oled-orders-from-chinese-vendors.html)

[1] - [https://www.ped30.com/2018/02/20/nikkei-slashes-
apple/](https://www.ped30.com/2018/02/20/nikkei-slashes-apple/)

[2] -
[https://twitter.com/rjonesy/status/958421107245232128](https://twitter.com/rjonesy/status/958421107245232128)

~~~
tooltalk
Yeah, we hear this every 1Q's. Apple's sales peak during the release quarter
and steadily declines over the next three quarters, until the new one comes
out next year. I think this natural decline has been misinterpreted by
reporters who really don't know any better and misreported as "declining
demand."

~~~
leoc
Apparently [https://www.cnet.com/news/samsung-reduces-oled-panel-
product...](https://www.cnet.com/news/samsung-reduces-oled-panel-production-
citing-poor-iphone-x-sales/) (warning: autoplaying video with audio :( ):

> Samsung Display, Samsung's panel-making division, is reducing OLED panel
> production at its South Chungcheong plant, according to the Nikkei Asian
> Review, thanks to lower than expected iPhone X sales.

> The report states Samsung now plans to cover 20 million or fewer iPhone X
> devices for the quarter ending in March, a large decrease from the expected
> 45 to 50 million units.

(I certainly can't confirm the reporting.)

~~~
Someone
[https://www.statista.com/statistics/263401/global-apple-
ipho...](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263401/global-apple-iphone-sales-
since-3rd-quarter-2007/) claims Apple sold 50.76 million iPhones in the
equivalent quarter a year ago.

If that is correct, expecting them to sell 45 to 50 million iPhone X’es this
quarter, to me, seems a tad optimistic.

Similarly, [https://www.statista.com/statistics/276306/global-apple-
ipho...](https://www.statista.com/statistics/276306/global-apple-iphone-sales-
since-fiscal-year-2007/) claims Apple sold 216 million iPhones in total in
2017, but [https://www.androidauthority.com/apple-samsung-iphone-x-
oled...](https://www.androidauthority.com/apple-samsung-iphone-x-oled-
display-824718/) claims

 _”Samsung shipped Apple 50 million OLED displays for the iPhone X in 2017.
That number looks to quadruple to 180-200 million in 2018.”_

Who is pulling numbers out of thin air, statista.com or Samsung?

~~~
cosmie
> Who is pulling numbers out of thin air, statista.com or Samsung?

These numbers don't necessarily contradict each other. Since the X is the
first OLED iPhone, and the X wasn't realeased until November, those "50
million OLED displays in 2017" were only for enough production to cover 2
months of sales. Projecting 180-200mm units in 2018 isn't unreasonable, based
on that initial demand.

It looks like from the parents CNET article that they may have trimmed that
outlook since then, potentially based on a stronger tapering of demand than
they expected. But the original number isn't quite in the realm of thin air
and lived comfortably in the land of the mildly optimistic (if improbable).

~~~
Someone
Two months with pent-up demand (Apple announced the iPhone X on September 12,
and ‘everybody’ knew a new phone was going to be announced at least two weeks
before) in the quarter were Apple typically sells a third of its yearly number
of phones.

If you assume the other three quarter each do 22% of sales, that 50 million
already goes down to 34 million. Anything more, for me, would be a big
surprise.

But chances are this is more to blame on reporters hunting for attention than
on Samsung. Samsung may just have said they would sell fewer displays than the
50 million of last quarter.

------
thomasedwards
> Despite months of breathless hype, the iPhone X hasn’t sold as well as
> expected since its debut last year. Apple sold 77.3 million iPhones in the
> final quarter of 2017, below analysts’ projections of 80.2 million units.

Considering the iPhone was going to be a flop by those same analysts, I’d say
selling 77.3 million of them is pretty good.

Who actually writes this rubbish? They missed out on 3 million phones, based
on a number you made up? It was out of stock for weeks and is only now really
available.

~~~
astrodust
Analysts always make these wildly stupid predictions and then throw a fit when
Apple magically doesn't meet them. It's absurd.

Meanwhile other companies like Uber lose "only" a billion dollars and the
analysts are losing their minds.

~~~
dep_b
It's kind of weird that gaining marketshare in a shrinking market while
increasing revenue per sold phone would be a bad thing just because some
analist thought it would even sell better.

~~~
astrodust
Apple has always had a strange relationship with analysts, but post Jobs they
started to generate increasingly insane projections.

Part of the blame here is on Apple, they run an unusually secretive operation,
where other companies would give a lot more in the way of guidance to help
keep expectations more realistic.

~~~
allwein
They don't provide guidance on product mix, but they do provide guidance on
expected revenue and margin. For Q1 2018 they projected between $84-$87
billion and came in at $88.3 billion.

Apple has been historically accurate in nailing their projections, yet when
analysts calculate the expected product mix, they either forget the mix and
assume Apple is going to sell $80 billion in only iPhones, or they include the
mix, which must mean they expect Apple to sell $120 billion worth of stuff.

------
taylodl
" _Apple has tried selling cheaper phones in the past with poor results._ " I
love the iPhone SE. They can keep gradually improving that model and I'm good.

~~~
hgontijo
I have an iPhone 6/64GB and it has been running really slow. Last thing I
tried is to disable all location services (besides for specific maps apps) and
helped a little bit. Apple diagnosed that its battery still good. Question,
how is your iPhone SE performance?

~~~
hnrodey
I'd still replace the battery regardless of what they tell you.

Apple once told me I had a good battery even though my phone would randomly
shut off and attaching to a charger was the only solution to get the phone to
turn on. Thankfully I had AppleCare and pushed for them to replace the phone.

~~~
eisa01
Yup, download GeekBench and do a test

My iPhone 7 was had a crippled batter after one year - it performed like an
iPhone 6..

------
Bokanovsky
Do you know what I really want from an iPhone? A more stable iOS. They've got
a lot of bugs creeping in that seem like regressions. Little cracks appearing
around the corners. Stuff that shouldn't really be bugs as they should have
tests in place for this. I don't want fancy talking animated emoji. Or
balloons flying around when I send an iMessage. I just want something solid.

One of the most annoying issues I have is with basic SMS from a non-iPhone
user. The notification doesn't give me the sender's name, it just gives me
their number, even though it's in my Contacts and I've just sent them an SMS.
Not everyone I send messages to lives in an iMessage bubble or has WhatsApp or
whatever. I've raised this as bug with Apple and they've flagged it as a
duplicate. Many iOS updates later it somtimes it says [Maybe: <Person's Name>]
as the notification. Why maybe? It never use to say that.

~~~
CharlesW
> _Do you know what I really want from an iPhone? A more stable iOS._

Apple (apparently) hears you:
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-12/how-
apple...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-12/how-apple-plans-
to-root-out-bugs-revamp-iphone-software)

I also recommend this Steven Sinofsky tweetstorm:
[https://twitter.com/stevesi/status/963142502604779520?lang=e...](https://twitter.com/stevesi/status/963142502604779520?lang=en)

------
rjplatte
As long as they don't kill the SE, this is fine. I like having a truly
functional decently new iPhone.

------
jeffbax
Hopefully lower-priced isn't just cheaper parts alone, but also the option for
a smaller phone.

Edge-to-edge, I want a phone the size of a 6/7 screen. Smaller form factor
without losing usable area is my dream iPhone, not something larger or even
the X size.

------
egypturnash
I keep on thinking about ditching my iPhone for a Mini with cellular
capability. I never make phone calls any more; mostly it gets used for
Mastodon, IM, email, and running the Kindle app. Maybe I'll try that when the
next upgrade happens. If it does; MacRumors says the main rumor is of it being
discontinued soon...

------
tyingq
I'm an Android user because I don't want to spend more than $250 on the device
in my arsenal that takes the most abuse.

A good Apple product that competed with, for example, the Moto G4, could
change the game. I'd love a mostly disposable iPhone that was as good as a
mid-range Android.

~~~
tyingq
Not really understanding the downvotes here. I'm a potential Apple
afficiciando, but at the Moto G4 pricepoint. Does that make me fodder of some
sort?

~~~
grzm
Only reason I can think of is that it shows a bit of a misunderstanding of
Apple's business model. They've never competed on price in the phone market
and are unlikely to start any time soon.

------
s2g
Hmm, maybe I should buy a couple spare 7 or 8.

I’m not buying a phone without touchid.

------
40acres
I keep wondering when Apple will bite the bullet and make a phone for the
emerging market. The smartphone market is getting more and more mature and if
Apple want's to keep sales up I think segmentation will be key. I would not be
surprised if there is a philosophical battle going on in Apple right now about
whether or not to make a phone for India & Africa, but the market is there.

~~~
sf_rob
The budget market is generally a race to the bottom, and I don't see Apple
interested in such a market. I know the counter will be that Apple can combine
quality with fairly low price, but I think that's quite a high risk
proposition.

~~~
redditmigrant
I think the one good reason to make a phone for the budget market is app
developer mind share. While developers obviously cant avoid building for iOS,
the more data you see of overall users/your users coming from Android, you
implicitly start building for Android first and then your iOS app "catching
up". If you are a resource constrained company in India, in China, I imagine
you build for Android first and then iOS. This lost mindshare would be
problematic in the long term.

------
Kattywumpus
I do not want FaceID, and will resist it as long as possible. I do not want to
normalize the idea that security should depend on a camera taking images of my
face and environment. I am not alone in this, and believe this is one reason
the iPhone X is selling poorly.

~~~
DonaldPShimoda
FaceID doesn't "take images of your face and environment" though. It uses a
dot projection (the pattern is unique to each phone) to produce a 3D
approximation of your face's structure, and collapses this into some sort of
mathematical representation of your face. This information is stored in a
separate chip on the phone which the OS does not have access to (and it never
leaves your phone; Apple isn't using your face for processing in the cloud or
anything). By their statistics, FaceID is an order of magnitude less likely to
result in false positives than TouchID.

And aside from this, for people who are truly concerned about security, Apple
recommends not using either FaceID or TouchID anyway (as both can be compelled
by court order in the US).

~~~
Kattywumpus
> FaceID doesn't "take images of your face and environment" though.

From "How Apple's New FaceID Works" at Gizmodo:

"Face ID starts with an image of your face, but builds on top of it with the
TrueDepth’s dot projector, which will invisibly project over 30,000 dots onto
your face each time you look at your phone, creating and building on its map
of your features.

"'We use the image and the dot pattern to push through neural networks to
create a mathematical model of your face,' Apple’s Phil Schiller explained."

\- [https://gizmodo.com/how-apples-new-face-id-
works-1803813400](https://gizmodo.com/how-apples-new-face-id-works-1803813400)

Your objection to my objection might be that FaceID doesn't store the images
it takes, but uses them to construct a facial map that it stores instead.

But even if that were any better, that's not true, either.

From Apple's iOS Security Guide:

"Once it confirms the presence of an attentive face, the TrueDepth camera
projects and reads over 30,000 infrared dots to form a depth map of the face,
along with a 2D infrared image. This data is used to create a sequence of 2D
images and depth maps, which are digitally signed and sent to the Secure
Enclave."

\-
[https://www.apple.com/business/docs/iOS_Security_Guide.pdf](https://www.apple.com/business/docs/iOS_Security_Guide.pdf)

The public nature of your face inherently makes access to your phone less
secure than the private nature of your fingerprints or even a PIN. But it's
not the security of the phone, or the photos or face map stored on it that
trouble me.

It's the camera-based security paradigm I reject. It reduces resistance to a
surveillance society, and increases the incentives for other businesses to use
face-identifying software, which destroys privacy in the real world. I don't
want people to get used to surrendering their privacy to access their data,
and I won't buy a phone that sends a market signal telling the corporate world
that I accept these kind of privacy-destroying technologies.

Anyway, thanks for the thoughtful response.

~~~
yladiz
Are you arguing that a face map and high resolution infrared photo is more
public than a fingerprint?

~~~
Kattywumpus
No. I'm saying that your face is more public than your fingerprint, and that
makes your phone less secure. That's not my primary reason for being against
FaceID, but it's an obvious truth that Apple has engaged in a lot of
misdirection about.

------
betoharres
Apple just lost time with iPhone X, they don't know what they're doing,
they're loosing time tasting the market and giving away their path to
competition. Clearly someone with more vision is making the difference here.

