
The Gamblers Betting Against Donald Trump … and Getting Rich - thisisit
https://www.theringer.com/2018/3/21/17130490/predictit-politics-elections-gambling
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zeveb
It's an interesting article, but folks buying shares in what they _want_ to
happen are the greater fools in a prediction market (this applies to people on
both sides of political questions). What you want to do is determine how much
an event will cost you or benefit you if it happens, and bet for or against it
in order to hedge your bets.

E.g. if you think law X will cost you $1,000 if it passes, you don't bet
$1,000 against it passing; you bet enough to make $1,000 if it passes. If it
doesn't pass, you are only out the cost of your bet (< $1,000), and if it does
pass, then you break even.

