
The ego depletion saga demonstrates the importance of effect sizes - luu
https://pigee.wordpress.com/2018/06/15/eyes-wide-shut-or-eyes-wide-open/
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lalaland1125
The real news is that if current trends continue, ego depletion will soon
change sign [https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/11/19/break-
out-...](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/11/19/break-out-the-
marshmallows-friends-ego-depletion-is-due-to-change-sign).

This will bring about the ego singularity as the positive feedback loop
quickly spirals out of control.

~~~
toolslive
that's a great link!

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rmbryan
I found this helpful:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ego_depletion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ego_depletion)

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klingonopera
Me too. When I started reading, I realized that my cluelessness is what
computer illiterate people probably feel when reading about IT stuff.

But on the whole, I felt that the article was rather trying to state that
effect sizes matter, using the ego depletion theory as an example for that.
The implications at the end of the article are particularly interesting, or at
least, if I were to be more brazen, don't really deny commonly held prejudices
on soft sciences...

~~~
larnmar
It seems to me that if a psychological effect is so small that you can meta-
analyse hundreds of studies and still not be sure whether it exists or not,
then it doesn’t matter if it does or not.

This isn’t physics, where the existence of a tiny effect such as time dilation
might nonetheless have significance beyond the observable regime. If a
psychological effect is barely measurable then it’s of no use to anybody. In
particular you don’t need to go around taking it into effect in your everyday
life.

Compare to the original analogy of a muscle. An actual muscle, if you work it
close to its limit, will be weaker one minute later... but if you work it to
its limit three times a week for a month it will get stronger. These effect
sizes are large, they’re consistently observed in ~100% of healthy adults, and
you can actually apply them in your life.

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heracles
I am so sick and tired of the muscle analogy (not criticizing you, but the
general usage)! Almost always when I see it used, it is to describe a
situation where we know almost _nothing_ about the fundamental phenomena! So
any so-called similarity is 100 % speculative.

I'd consider "it is like a muscle" a red flag when reading news/science.

~~~
AstralStorm
It's doubly funny, because we actually have not enough of an idea how muscles
do what they do... Even so far as immune system may be involved in their
growth and strength adaptation.

~~~
eru
So it's an apt analogy after all.

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heracles
I don't think so, no. Here is why: the basic behavior of muscles are decently
well understood. For example why and how they contract and relax, and why they
tire. We know of several reasons why muscles might malfunction. What is not
well established is how and why muscles become stronger over time.

Compare this to for example ego depletion, and I would say that the analogy is
not apt.

~~~
eru
Yes, true.

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code_biologist
Great article. This hits close to home as a product developer. I'm certain
this phenomena happens in "data driven" product decisions. Top of the funnel,
we have the numbers to get statistically sound outcomes on A/B tests quickly.
I work on a B2B product (high value, low volume sales cycle) and bottom of the
funnel or internal sales process experimentation we try our best at is sketchy
and hard to do. Experimental design is hard trying to get adequate power.

Any HNers have tips for working in low-data regimes (N=low hundreds)? Is there
some magic Bayesian angle I don't know about?

We haven't systemically looked at effect sizes and this article is a good push
for me to dig into that.

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jack_pp
More data = better prediction.

If you have a million users you can get few data per user but lots of data in
total.

If you have 100 users you can get a lot of data on each one by direct contact

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AstralStorm
That always depends on the goal.

Locking yourself into 100 early adopters may or may not be prudent.

Main thing to answer is how representative your sample of target users is. The
deeper the questions asked, less likely it is.

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Angostura
For those who may nbot be familiar with the term: From Wiki:

Ego depletion refers to the idea that self-control or willpower draws upon a
limited pool of mental resources that can be used up. When the energy for
mental activity is low, self-control is typically impaired, which would be
considered a state of ego depletion.

~~~
yebyen
I've been following this through the lens of Beeminder (and "Quantified Self")
-- taking away the idea that if you know your own willpower better, you can do
magic tricks like "only promise what you can deliver on" and "incrementally
ramping up your own willpower"

After looking up this concept of Ego Depletion, which seemed like a new idea I
haven't heard of before, when I clicked this discussion today... I can see
it's basically the same idea. But what I hadn't considered is that the same
ideas are able to be used by, eg. advertisers!

While my goal of study in this field is making the most of my own efforts,
there is someone out there looking at the same charts, trying to figure out
exactly where is the right place to put their advertisement to maximize the
effect it has on me, even going as far as to get me to buy something that I
wouldn't have bought otherwise.

That's just fascinating. (Alternatively, that's a horrifying idea...)

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twic
What is an "experimental theoretician"?

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seibelj
Sure fire way to make it to the top of psychology / sociology academia:

1) Go to Ivy school, get your phd, make all the key connections

2) Find something that makes intuitive sense to a highly educated person, and
create a test that you claim measures it. Even better if it’s really fuzzy,
like “ego depletion”. For example, call it “mood enhancement”. This is if your
mood is elevated. The test would ask 20 questions about your current mood,
like “Do I feel happy” and “I feel above-normal positive emotions”. These 20
questions will use 1 to 5 scale and provide a 100 point outcome.

3) Use your connections to get people in the academic industry to start
promoting it and using it. Publish a paper showing what baseline is.

4) Now is your time to strike. Start making experiments that you anticipate
would modify someone’s mood, like giving them a glass of wine before the test,
or having them call their mother. Do control and experimental and see the
boost to “mood enhancement”.

5) Publish paper after paper on your amazing discoveries of how to boost “mood
enhancement”. Get others to cite your publications and make a cottage industry
of “mood enhancement” research experts. More people, more papers, more funding
- and you started it all with the key genesis “mood enhancement” paper!

6) Write books, go on NPR as a guest speaker, give speeches. You have
quantified mood and determined how to boost it. “My research shows that a 7.2
percent increase in mood occurs when you call your mother before a big company
presentation. It’s science!” You are now a public figure and can get tenure
and big corporate speech bucks. The world has been forever changed by your
mood enhancing research!

~~~
dang
Despite its length, this comment is a shallow dismissal in the sense that the
site guidelines ask you not to post here: " _Please don 't post shallow
dismissals, especially of other people's work. A good critical comment teaches
us something._"

Elongating an extra cynical rant does not count as teaching us something, so
please don't post like this to HN. If what you're writing is based on
knowledge or experience, please share your knowledge or experience directly.
If it isn't, please post elsewhere.

[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html)

~~~
seibelj
I am indeed throwing stones at the entire academic discipline of psychology
and sociology. I see your point but I am curious in the counterpoints in
replies, given the massive edifice that has been constructed on taxpayer
dollars and has been shown to have absolutely no basis in reality with further
pre-registered studies. I can link to many articles about this crisis if you
are unaware

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Angostura
It's impossible to make a counterpoint, because you don't actually make a
clear point other than "its all rubbish"

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coldtea
"It's all rubbish" is a very clear point, and it might very well be true.

