
The Importance of India - kolchinski
https://alexkolchinski.com/2020/06/22/the-importance-of-india/
======
sohamsankaran
I think there is no alternative but for the west to tie itself closely to
India if they want liberal democracy to prevail. India is deeply flawed, but
has a deep and abiding affinity for democracy, and a polity that is
sophisticated about things like strategic split-ticket voting to prevent too
much power being concentrated in one political party. As such, it frustrates
me that Western countries don't help us consolidate our position in
international affairs, including by allowing us to officially be a member of
the Nuclear Suppliers Group and supporting our bid to be on the UN Security
Council.

If you're interested in how India's history informs our politics, economy, and
foreign relations today, take a look at Today in Indian History, a newsletter
which my brother and I recently launched. Four times a week, we lay out the
context and consequences of an event in India's past that happened on that
date. Link below:

[https://honestyisbest.com/today-in-indian-
history/](https://honestyisbest.com/today-in-indian-history/)

~~~
sameerds
This looks interesting, but I could not find an RSS feed for the site. Could
you please add one, I would definitely prefer that over subscribing to an
email newsletter!

~~~
benrapscallion
Use kill-the-newsletter.com to turn the emails into RSS feeds, since the
author is unwilling to add them.

~~~
sohamsankaran
I endorse this as a temporary solution, thanks for the suggestion!

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centrist
I am taking a note of how some privileged individuals possibly from rich
western countries or elite Indians conforming to a political ideology here are
mocking and judging a country which has been looted, enslaved and
intentionally left illiterate for centuries.

India is not perfect. But just to bring things into perspective, the cited
"beacon" of liberal democracy, USA, didn't allow women to vote until as recent
as a hundred years ago. The civil rights movement is not even a century old.
Compared to that India has been independent for less than 72 years. Democracy
takes time but results are permanent.

Now please take a note all the naysayers: Indians will strive and they will
excel without any "great leaps" or "gulags" like they have in last 70 odd
years. "Jantantra" or democracy is an integral part of India, and it will not
falter in face of systemic racism by the west (and far east) or bullying by
likes of China. There was a time when a whole bunch of people thought that
democracy will never work in India or even worse, India as country will not
exist because of its extreme diversity. The British even believed Indians are
incapable to "govern themselves". But fast forward to present - they all have
been proved wrong.

Democracy is slow, but that is the only and the universally accepted way
forward for a diverse country like India.

~~~
centrist
It's almost funny how an apparent Chinese (sympathizer?) (check the activity)
user below calls India a "semi Slavery society" with zero context about the
country and even tries to hijack the present BLM in almost propaganda like
move.

Now, facts. Upon independence, India's constitution was written by the
constituent assembly presided over by an "untouchable". This constitution
abolished discrimination on basis of caste, and as an affirmative action
reserved seats in educational institutions and jobs in all state sponsored
educational and public institutions.

This reservation system has rapidly been increasing over the years and now a
staggering 60 - 70% of all positions are reserved today. What's more, the
current Prime Minister of India and the President of India are from backward
castes and scheduled caste respectively, and a majority of political parties
and multiple Chief Ministers presently belong to traditionally backward
castes. Even election constituencies are reserved, so that there is fixed
amount of representation in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha (lower and upper
houses) no matter which government is in power.

The best any authoritarian regime can do right now is portray as propaganda
that India is a "semi slavery society" which has no "liberal" shared values
with the democracies in the West so everyone should shun it.

It's a standard divide and rule strategy.

~~~
selimthegrim
This “untouchable” had to get elected to Constituent Assembly from reserved
seat from East Bengal thanks to Jogendranath Mandal because the one-Anna
Congresspeople were still mad about Poona Pact. To a neutral observer does
that sound like someone who was about to be put in charge of drafting?

------
sand_castles
Demographics is not destiny, if it were true, Pakistan would be more powerful
than Russia.

How you organize your society matters much more, Japan/SK has fraction of the
global population, and somehow maintain their economic importance.

India has all the problems of a democracy without much of the benefit. It's
more likely that India becomes a CCP style country than stays a democracy.

If India was so great it's smaller immediate neighbor wouldn't be so hostile
towards it, and friendly to CCP.

CCP was able to organize G77, so they have the numbers on their side, it's
just that poor people don't have a voice, China is providing hard power to the
masses of humanity against the interests of G7.

It's a major shift in world power, whether G7 likes it or not.

I am no fan of CCP, nor is CCP a fan of how they do things ! but its the world
we live in, where the state department can just overthrow the govt of a major
country if it likes, you need the use of hard power to survive.

~~~
TriNetra
> If India was so great it's smaller immediate neighbor wouldn't be so hostile
> towards it, and friendly to CCP.

I'm assuming by small country you meant Pakistan. If so, this couldn't be
further from truth. Pakistan isn't hostile toward India because India isn't
great; the reason is in the reason of its creation and a relentless need to
justify that reason. Pakistan came into existence based on an idea that
Muslims couldn't survive in a democratic nation with majority Hindu population
as Hindus would be a de-facto rulers. (Although this argument has turned out
to be a completely false as in India the population of Muslims have grown from
8% to 14%+ after independence. On the other hand, minority population -
Hindus/etc. - have declined considerably in Pakistan.) Be it culture, history
or language, Pakistan has most things common with India. If there's piece
between both, people would soon start questioning reason to stay separate -
together both can be a great powerful nation on the world. Many outside
interests (read super-powers) wouldn't like this to happen so they keep
fueling aggressive elements. Similarly, rulers of Pakistan can't allow this to
happen for obvious reason. Till date, you can hear their leaders justifying
separation from India in their speeches by highlighting some stray incident
happened with some Muslim in India.

~~~
polotics
Spot on! Don't you think it's interesting to see the current Chinese ruling
class's propaganda on HN always harping on their dreamed up superiority of
top-down social organisation? Completely oblivious to the value of chaos. One
hope they will learn.

------
ripvanwinkle
Speaking as an Indian

There is a presumption in that article that population numbers are all that
matters.

There's a lot more that needs to be analyzed - for example the natural
resources available and the productivity and availability of education and
healthcare for the population.

To be clear, I believe there is plenty of opportunity as well as risk for
India. The article seems to gloss over the risks

For example India's biggest threat might actually be its depleting ground
water

[https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/why-india-does-not-
hav...](https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/why-india-does-not-have-enough-
water-to-drink-1557669-2019-06-28)

[https://gpm.nasa.gov/education/videos/indias-disappearing-
wa...](https://gpm.nasa.gov/education/videos/indias-disappearing-water)

~~~
fmajid
Protecting India's water supply is why India took over Kashmir, and why the
Chinese presence in Ladakh and bordering Arunachal Pradesh is so dangerous for
India, as those two areas are the source for half of India's water supply.

India must shed Nehru's outdated non-aligned stance (as if China's 1962
treachery hadn't discredited it already) and ally with the US and Japan on
equal terms to contain China. India should also invest massively in solar-
powered desalination technology to lessen its dependance on river systems that
will be disrupted by climate change even without Chinese mischief.

------
lappet
The population factor is a very interesting observation. I think this is
missing India's point of view of the situation. India has always been wary of
being very close to the US or other Western powers because of history. During
the Cold War India was closer to the Russians. If the US wants to improve
relations with India, it needs to recognize that India will likely remain
independent (another pole in a multi-polar world)

------
praveen9920
This is true in the case of manufacturing based economy, which world is
currently now majored in.

But with knowledge driven economy coming into picture, Having a huge
population has any advantage?

First world countries certainly have head start in this case, who are already
attracting best brains from across world ( universities and companies)

So, India will retain the importance only if it can sustain current brain
drain which means huge investment in younger generation.

~~~
knolax
Most of the "knowledge driven economy" is bullshit imo. They're busywork that
allows societies that already have a lot of wealth to distribute it to their
middle and upper class. People like HFTs don't create nearly the same amount
value as their income justifies.

~~~
praveen9920
It's interesting to note that India's 7% gdp is from software and tech related
exports. Knowledge driven economy is not a myth in the case is india

~~~
desikoder
Well, most of that comes by building products from established standards by
the west and providing support services. So, the point remains, knowledge
based economy, while certainly useful, is not the only way for an economy to
grow. Sheer hardwork can be an immense force too, that's what the chinese did
over the years and what this article points to as well.

~~~
praveen9920
My point is that, with the transformation coming, sheer hardwork will lose the
relevance.

China did it when world still needed humans to do lot of manufacturing which
is changing very rapidly. In fact, India's manufacturing sector is not
adapting lot of automation just to make sure they can capitalise human effort
which may be cheaper now but may not be in future ( just like in China)

------
typon
India being "a counterweight to the rise of authoritarianism in the 21st
century" while Modi and BJP are in power. This is so misguided its funny.

~~~
jayp
Wasn’t Modi democratically elected — twice?

~~~
AnimalMuppet
Yes. So? You can have a democratically-elected authoritarian. The
authoritarian part is about how they govern, not how they get to power. (And,
perhaps, how they stay in power. Venezuela is a good example of
authoritarians, once in power, stacking the deck so that the next election
keeps them in power. And as they become more unpopular, they continue to stack
the deck farther and farther. I don't know if Modi and BJP are doing that.)

~~~
TriNetra
The problem is that most of your understanding about Modi government is coming
from western media which has repeatedly shown to be inherently bias against
India [0] becoming strong. Part of the reason could be that India didn't join
western club after Independence contrary to their expectations and chose to
remain non-align (though it gravitated more toward USSR).

You wouldn't hear that though Modi has won federal elections twice, his party
has lost many state elections during the same time. But he hasn't really done
anything nefarious that could stop such losses. People has chosen Modi because
at this stage, there's no alternative strong figure that can solve many
India's problem. YOu'd hear about MOdi removing article 370 from Kashmir, the
Citizen bill, but you won't get the details about the real reason of why those
are needed to solve the problem India has been facing since independence but
no prior gov attempted to implement them (despite agreeing in principles on
multiple occasions) just because of vote-politics.

0: [https://www.organiser.org/Encyc/2020/5/22/Foreign-Media-
and-...](https://www.organiser.org/Encyc/2020/5/22/Foreign-Media-and-Fake-
News-against-Bharat.html)

~~~
infinite8s
> YOu'd hear about MOdi removing article 370 from Kashmir, the Citizen bill,
> but you won't get the details about the real reason of why those are needed
> to solve the problem India has been facing since independence but no prior
> gov attempted to implement them (despite agreeing in principles on multiple
> occasions) just because of vote-politics.

So what is the real reason then to solve the problem India has been facing
since independence?

------
BIackSwan
I find such broad sweeping projections about population growth, big population
numbers = more power, “eclipsing USA” and further conclusions emanating from
this kind of line of thinking making zero sense.

Nobody has a clue on how population growth is going to be in next 30 yrs for
both China and India. Its too dynamic and impossible to forecast, let alone
make broad sweeping action items to advocate for.

~~~
bryanlarsen
Population growth over a 30 year period is quite predictable. The rate is very
cultural, and cultures change slowly.

And it's quite clear that population is a component of world power. Definitely
not the only component, and probably not the most important component, but if
all else is equal, the larger country will be the more powerful.

------
AsyncAwait
India's been leaning right for a while from what I've seen, I'd rather the EU
decouple itself from U.S. foreign policy and be an independent, serious
counterbalance to China, India, Russia and the U.S.

But I suspect the possibility of that happening is rather slim, sadly.

------
csours
If someone recognized that they had some level of prejudice against persons
from India, what would you advise they do.

To be clear, I have friends of Indian descent, and I value them, but I also
work with people from India and I'm afraid I find them more annoying than not.

~~~
dqpb
I think it depends on what annoys you. I find myself annoyed by any kind of
cultural tick. Phrases, mannerisms, cliches, tropes, all bother me to the
extent that they are common and pervasive (in any culture).

But by far I see this the worste in youths. Highschoolers and undergrads are
so painfully unoriginal. But, that's life. Better to focus your attention on
people who you find unique and impressive than to worry about people who are
still finding themselves.

~~~
phillipcarter
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYAuR5bkIlQ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYAuR5bkIlQ)

~~~
dqpb
All I'm saying is this - I've worked with people across many ethnic/cultural
groups. If I can draw any stereotype, it's that the most unique, intelligent,
and competent people are those in their 40s.

------
wtmt
> If China rises to heights of power that eclipse the US completely, _only
> India may be strong enough to speak for liberal democracy._

With recent history in mind, I doubt the emphasized part. India is not
actually a beacon of a liberal or a constitutional democracy, as has been
shown in the last six years by the party in power in the central government.
If anything, India is regressing and ignoring constitutional protections while
also becoming more protectionist and closed to other countries. Mass
surveillance, rights being curbed, an authoritarian state that requires
citizens to submit to its orders (without legal backing) and other factors are
serious concerns that shouldn’t be ignored by outsiders.

~~~
ramshanker
Your doubt is typical Indian opposition viewpoint right now. They are so just
for the sake of opposition.

~~~
throwaway384629
And your doubt is typical Indian government viewpoint right now.

------
known
"A country is not made of land; a country is made of its people" \--Unknown
[https://archive.vn/bS2fL](https://archive.vn/bS2fL)

------
ankitkumar98
Having a huge population doesn't help much. I am from India and I can say that
the current state of the country is not good. There are some good initiatives
such as the Digital India initiative and some good advancements on the Fintech
scene but the country is not in the best state right now. At least, not
positioned for remarkable growth like China had in the past few decades.

~~~
virattara
> Having a huge population doesn't help much.

The article highlights this by saying "India currently punches below its
weight on the world stage" and it's true if we go by the numbers. Also, if we
go by the numbers the country is in the best state ever compared to its past.
Modernization in manufacturing or agriculture will surely increase the
country's output which I believe should be the target of governance.

------
known
India is Feudalism masquerading as Democracy
[https://archive.vn/pOmij](https://archive.vn/pOmij)
[https://archive.vn/8HKHz](https://archive.vn/8HKHz)

------
seemslegit
Country of 1.3 billion people immensely grateful to a valley wantrapaneur for
recognizing its importance.

------
peisistratos
Then Nigeria and Bangladesh have a significant advantage over Japan, Germany,
France and the UK.

~~~
rayiner
Insofar as they’re not trending toward population extinction, yes.

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ianmobbs
Implying we need India to "defeat" China then going on to list all the reasons
Chinese citizens are doing better than Indian citizens seems to completely
invalidate your argument.

------
aparsons
India is what one calls a paperweight superpower. They like to think they’re a
superpower, meddle in regional affairs, yet get bullied by China and Pakistan
on the regular.

~~~
known
India is a paradox [https://archive.vn/bS2fL](https://archive.vn/bS2fL)

------
strooper
Capitalism is driving the world, and it is setting the policies as per
necessity, different ones in different countries. The west has stopped
exporting democracy around the world since the cold war was won. Many
countries have democratically elected government turned to
autocratic/authoritarian regime.

Oh, "populism" is the new best friend of the rising powers.

------
bzb3
>India currently punches below its weight on the world stage due to slow
economic development: 30 years ago, its GDP per capita was similar to China’s,
but is now 5x lower. However, if India were to enter a period of similarly
high growth over the next 30 years as China has for the past 30, it would
quickly become one of the most powerful countries in the world thanks to the
scaling factor of its immense population.

And if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a bicycle.

~~~
jeffreyrogers
Yeah, any comparison to China needs to acknowledge that China is largely
ethnically homogenous and has an authoritarian government that has relatively
consistent goals top-to-bottom. India is nothing like that and I don't see it
becoming like that anytime soon.

~~~
naravara
> China is largely ethnically homogenous

This is a fiction that was created by Chinese nationalists [1] [2] [3] over
the course of the 19th and 20th centuries.

"Dialects" between provinces can be very different and mutually unintelligible
verbally. In many other contexts they would have been considered different
languages, but since the imperial bureaucracy and the Chinese writing system
helped maintain a sense of unity in spite of it we don't.

All this isn't to say Han identity is any less real than any other identity.
The idea of "ethnic identity" is fundamentally constructed and imaginary
across the board. That's also why it's not a great explanatory factor for much
of anything. These categories aren't primordial, they're usually reflective of
the very thing for which you're trying to use it as an explanation.

[1]
[https://blogs.nottingham.ac.uk/chinesestudies/2016/09/23/863...](https://blogs.nottingham.ac.uk/chinesestudies/2016/09/23/8632/)
[2]
[https://www.jstor.org/stable/20025378?seq=1](https://www.jstor.org/stable/20025378?seq=1)
[3]
[https://escholarship.org/uc/item/07s1h1rf](https://escholarship.org/uc/item/07s1h1rf)

~~~
jeffreyrogers
Yeah, I'm aware of that, however, most Chinese still consider themselves Han
Chinese. So even if it is somewhat of a fiction, most people within China
consider it true, which is what is relevant for the purposes of having a
national identity.

~~~
naravara
My point is, they consider it true because of the country's political
cohesion. If the country wasn't politically cohesive, the ethnic identity
wouldn't be either. The unified identity is explained by the political
homogeneity as much as it explains it.

~~~
jeffreyrogers
I think the causality works both ways. If you have an ethnic identity, it's
easier to assimilate new arrivals, especially when you are numerically
superior. This has been the history of China for a long time.

------
gdsdfe
> If China rises to heights of power that eclipse the US completely, only
> India may be strong enough to speak for liberal democracy

right, both countries are systemically killing, displacing and putting muslims
in imprisonment camps

~~~
oliTwist23
Oh pls!! Trolling just for the sake of trolling, you can do it on Twitter.
Those imprisonments if at all happened, have a validity and supreme courts are
very good to handle any issues like that.

~~~
gdsdfe
How is this trolling? Millions are affected across China and India, people are
dying on a daily basis ... But yeah I get it they have no purchase power and
they're not white not Christian so who gives a shit

------
pearjuice
I don't rate India. Their legal framework is very weak, corrupt nation,
hygiene problems and massive overpopulated dense cities.

------
op03
India is like a thousand different things heading in a thousand different
directions. And those vectors change from day to day. There is no control in
such a system. Only an illusion of control.

Its as good as looking at two hurricanes and saying well this hurricane is
heading towards us, so we better "support" the other one and maybe cool shit
will happen.

It makes an engaging story though.

~~~
sbmthakur
> India is like a thousand different things heading in a thousand different
> directions.

The Republic of India more than 70 years old. And India is not the only
democracy with a multitude of cultures.

