
Fifteen years ago the CIA tried to predict the world in 2015 - bootload
http://www.theage.com.au/world/fifteen-years-ago-the-cia-tried-to-predict-the-world-in-2015-heres-what-they-got-wrong-20151222-gltquh.html
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drallison
There have been several different Global Trends reports. Currently in progress
is Global Trends 2035, which is being prepared by crowd sourcing rather than a
team of experts. See
[http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-
int...](http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-intelligence-
council-global-trends) for a description. The earlier reports (2010, 2015,
2020, 2025, and 2030) are linked at the bottom of the page. Other reports can
be found at [http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-
int...](http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-intelligence-
council-nic-publications).

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drallison
There have been several editions of the Global Trends reports, all interesting
both for what they got right and what they got wrong. Please note that the
reports are not "predictions" but "forecasts". The methodology tries to
identify trends and drivers that are thought to be significant in the evolving
future. For a few of them, scenarios are created to explore how different
interacting trends and drivers might create a future.

HN readers interested in learning more about forecasting might read Philip
Tetlock's book, Superforecasting, [http://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-The-
Art-Science-Predi...](http://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-The-Art-Science-
Prediction/dp/0804136696), which has been justifiably on many must read lists.

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Area12
I can't remember the details, and can't find it in google, but ... in my
possibly faulty memory the FDR administration produced a similar report in the
1930s on the future of the USA. They missed five keys future game-changing
events that unfolded not long after:

1\. The rise of the superhighway and the importance of personal long-distance
travel and trucking

2\. The rise of cheap air travel and shipment

3\. Nuclear weapons and energy, and the impact of nuclear weapons on
geopolitics

And two others I can't remember. Probably at least one of those was WWII.

My point is that producing reports of even near-future trends is HARD. It is
very likely multiple game-changing events will not be foreseen.

