
Coronavirus outbreak makes lobsters so cheap that sellers face a fatal blow - JumpCrisscross
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-05/virus-makes-luxe-lobsters-so-cheap-that-sellers-face-fatal-blow
======
nostromo
I'm honestly more worried about the economic toll than I am the health
impacts.

So many people are going to lose their jobs, their homes, and their
healthcare, if everyone continues to cancel all travel and entertainment.
These economic events have real impacts on families for a generation. And
service workers will be the hardest hit.

The median age of fatal infections is 75. And yet we have healthy 25 year olds
holed up in their apartments, hitting local economies hard. It's nonsensical.
Most people should be behaving normally with some added protections (like
washing their hands), and those who are at high-risk should be protected.

~~~
NicolasGorden
I honestly believe that the Corona virus is more of an illness of mass
psychological fear than it is a Virus. I'm not saying the virus isn't real, or
that those who suffer from it aren't real.

I'm simply saying that, at least for the US according to the CDC, 260 people
have become ill and 14 people dead... which is nothing compared to 300,000,000
entering a state of unreasonable fear.

I know people who don't get a yearly flu shot (50,000 dead/year), don't wash
their hands before eating (most viral and bacterial infections aren't
airborne), smoke (400,000 dead/year), drink (80,000 dead/year) and regularly
drive late at night when tired (35,000 dead/year)... yet they are taking every
possible precaution against corona virus, because they don't want to be the
15th death. It's so weird.

Again, not saying it isn't an issue or doesn't exist or can't become a bigger
issue. Just that the fear is so disproportional to the threat, it's mind
blowing for me. It feels like some mass psychotic event. I'm just disconnected
enough from most people's reality that I can't seem to share in it, so I stand
a contrarian outsider like I've always been, scratching my head.

~~~
natalyarostova
Meanwhile, our hospitals in Seattle are already filling up, and they're
diverting people to further hospitals; as this is a virus with an extremely
high hospitalization rate. We all need to do what we can to keep those
hospitalizations low, so our medical system doesn't collapse and turn people
away who need ventilation. That means doing _your part_ to not be a vector of
infection.

~~~
nostromo
Seattle hospitals appear to be filling up _because of unnecessary panic_ , not
because of COVID-19.

The point you responded to, of not overreacting, is indeed correct.

~~~
natalyarostova
I would love it if you're all correct on this. The problem I face is that I do
notice other countries who are a week or two ahead of us really struggling,
and taking increasingly drastic measures to try and maintain control. I guess
I just don't really understand the argument people are making who are saying
we are overreacting.

Are you saying we should do nothing, and just accept some tens of thousands of
deaths and overburdened hospitals across all major cities? Or that this isn't
really a big deal or contagious, and we should just ignore it?

It seems to me that the prudent and responsible thing is for us all to do our
best to lower the secondary infection rate, in order to guard against these
outcomes.

~~~
losttheplot
>I do notice other countries who are a week or two ahead of us

It is being reported that South Korea is testing 10k per day. The USA is still
having an issue in even delivering test kits where required. That's months
ahead, not weeks.

~~~
hawaiianbrah
I think they meant in terms of viral propagation and effects being felt.

------
cs702
Hopefully the collapse in lobster sales is just an isolated example in a
relatively small sector of the economy, and not a portend of things to come.

If more companies are forced to shut down or cut/postpone spending in response
to sharp drops in revenues, their suppliers and employees will react by
cutting or postponing their own spending, leading yet others to do the same,
in the worst case fueling a sudden and self-reinforcing feedback loop of
global contraction in economic activity.

It's possible that stock markets worldwide are now pricing such a scenario.
Let's hope it doesn't get _that_ bad.

But hope is not a plan. Please make sure you're well positioned to survive a
sharp economic downturn, just in case!

See also: [https://medium.com/sequoia-capital/coronavirus-the-black-
swa...](https://medium.com/sequoia-capital/coronavirus-the-black-swan-
of-2020-7c72bdeb9753)

~~~
toomuchtodo
The US Fed's actions recently (emergency meeting, 50 bps rate cut [1], futures
markets anticipating a 89% chance of a 75 bps cut in March and a 59% chance of
a cut to 0% in April [2]) seem to indicate that these events are "canaries in
the coal mine"; policymakers and central banks are already seeing current and
forward looking data ahead of what is publicly available indicating an
economic contraction is in progress. I know the Fed has access to electronic
payment data (credit card transactions) in the US through an agreement with
those networks, and uses that info for decisioning (among other data sources
not publicly available).

Also, 10 year treasuries are at a record low today below 0.7% [3]. This is
unheard of, and an indicator that capital markets are seeing an unprecedented
flight to safety [4].

Not intended to be alarmist, these are simply observations (although I heard
someone say very recently, "the bond market is basically signaling that all
hell is going to break loose."). It appears macro econ policy folks are trying
to engineer a soft economic landing, but monetary policy only goes so far. Be
prepared, make good personal finance choices in the near term.

[1] [https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed/in-an-
emergency-m...](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed/in-an-emergency-
move-u-s-federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-to-battle-coronavirus-
idUSKBN20Q22F)

[2] [https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-
to...](https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html)

[3]
[https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?count...](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx)

[4] [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight-to-
quality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight-to-quality)

~~~
joe_the_user
It's not that common shocks to an economy to have a permanent effect.
Businesses and investors understand that the event will be temporary, some
businesses may shut down during the event but once the event ends, the pent-up
demand it generates and allow spending on recovery, tends to more than
compensate.

That said, the economy was an extremely fragile condition before all this
began so this might be an exception.

~~~
semi-extrinsic
For many of the things affected by the coronavirus (events, going to
restaurants, going on holiday etc), you basically don't aggregate any pent-up
demand. People won't take twice as much holidays next year. It's tricky to
argue for the recovery on that.

~~~
kortilla
A great portion of people have very little self control when it comes to
spending and will spend the money that would have been on a vacation on
something else (weekend travel, a new phone, extra eating out, etc) so the
money does indeed usually flow back.

~~~
Proziam
"I didn't get to go on vacation so instead I'll..."

I've heard variants of this from so many people at this point that I'm
convinced the default human behavior is to consume - not to preserve or save.

------
ggm
Oysters were poverty food right up to Dicken's day. Times change!

If I was a lobster (they can live over 50 years, so its not impossible given
I'm old now) I'd be delighted if people stopped pulling me out of the sea for
no cents.

~~~
rolltiide
I think its really interesting how most people imagine expensive things taste
better just because they are expensive, specifically lobster, caviar. They
exist in scarcity right now and thats the only distinction as there are longer
periods of time where they weren't "delicacies" but still tasty parts of a
meal.

~~~
setr
There's also the aspect that, as the price goes up, the more it'll be cooked
by more expensive/better chefs -- which presumably produce better food, or at
least, better looking food (and if you believe in eating with your eyes,
translates to better food)

In which case, it does actually taste better as a group. It probably finds
better recipes as more experienced cooks take a stab at it (whereas before, it
was so low-class few would likely even consider doing anything with it beyond
the simplest/cheapest combinations).

These kinds of things are usually compounding, or even feedback loops; it's
rarely useful to only look at a single step of impact. Though I wouldn't doubt
cost isn't a part of the explanation (and ofc it goes the other way too --
good things made cheap, cheapen the perceived value. Perhaps they were also
good when it was cheap... But cost was so low you wouldn't accept it as good-
eatings)

~~~
JohnBooty
This is so true. Lobster is not particularly flavorful on its own. People
typically drown it in butter, salt, and maybe some Old Bay seasoning here in
the US. It has always been pretty obvious to me that folks are enjoying the
salt and the butter probably more than the lobster!

~~~
technofiend
You missed deep fat fried lobster. Yes, it's a thing. And quite frankly for
what it is, it's delicious.

[http://www.binions.com/dining/binions_steakhouse.php](http://www.binions.com/dining/binions_steakhouse.php)

------
jboggan
Really curious to see data on the California commercial lobster fishery, 98%
of which goes abroad to Japan and China. They run $35-40/lb over the last year
or two, so I imagine they have much further to fall, which is great for the
recreational divers in the area.

Edit: wow, falling to $25 already, I saw this same site for $42/lb last year.

[https://store.catalinaop.com/products/live-whole-
california-...](https://store.catalinaop.com/products/live-whole-california-
spiny-lobster)

~~~
mhb
Why are these so much more than Maine lobsters?

~~~
pvaldes
Better quality and logistic difficulties.

California's lobsters had the finest flavour, are more dangerously deceiving
to naive fishermen (crushing's fingers creature), and much more challenging to
catch and put in a table. They have a bad habit of losing legs at the
slightest opportunity (and nobody wants to buy a three legged lobster).

~~~
irishcoffee
Or... closer than Maine

~~~
pvaldes
Is not about distances. We talk about two different animals. Not even in the
same genus. It's like comparing the prices of pork and beef.

------
soared
This sounds like the story leading up to a very smart marketer who comes in
with a creative solution to solve the problem. Comparable to the northern
european guy who convinced all of Japan that eating raw salmon was safe.

~~~
porlex
Do you have the name of that guy?

~~~
hencq
Bjorn Erik Olsen. There was a Planet Money episode on it (and pretty sure it's
been posted here before): [https://www.npr.org/2015/09/18/441530790/how-the-
desperate-n...](https://www.npr.org/2015/09/18/441530790/how-the-desperate-
norwegian-salmon-industry-created-a-sushi-staple)

And here's a little bit more detail on it:
[https://www.norwayexports.no/norways-introduction-of-
salmon-...](https://www.norwayexports.no/norways-introduction-of-salmon-sushi-
to-japan/)

------
ookblah
my issue is how to reconcile the way different countries have handled it. i
don't think this is a nothing burger, but i'm also wary of the "overreaction"
by the media and then you add signaling and political issues and it becomes a
mess.

\- america and some european countries. we haven't tested anybody in the US
and are basically treating it like it's nothing, but it's clear that this
thing has been spreading already. still yet to be seen how it plays out in
terms of overwhelming the system.

\- contrast this to a place like korea which is aggressively testing 10k
people per day, finding a low mortality rate, but still trying to balance
hospital resources.

\- compare that to italy and iran, where they are struggling w/ resources and
people seem to be dying at an alarming rate (imagine if like 3 politicians
just dropped dead from this thing).

\- now compare that to china, where they literally quarantined tens of
millions (and still are), had to build extra hospitals in a matter of days,
and are still implementing draconian measures to manage it. they basically had
to shut down their production briefly. and even then the actual numbers might
not be clear.

if someone could help enlighten me with an explanation that would fit all
these cases that would be much appreciated. right now it's too black and
white, that this is some world ender or "just the flu, bro".

~~~
jacobolus
This is a very serious disease for many of the infected when left untreated:
it causes pneumonia (inflammation of the lungs/airways) which makes people’s
respiratory system less effective, leading their blood oxygen levels to drop
and potentially leading to death, especially in the elderly and people with
pre-existing conditions like cardiovascular problems, obesity, diabetes,
compromised immune systems, asthma, other chronic respiratory issues, ....

A significant proportion of people over 60, a non-negligible proportion of
people ages 40–60, and still some proportion of people aged 20–40 need to be
hospitalized and put on supplemental oxygen. In severe cases people need
support from a mechanical respirator. In the WHO report from China 20% of
positive cases needed hospitalization. This might be a substantial
overestimate if there are many mild cases not caught by tests, but even if
that estimate is off by a factor of 5 or 10, if there are many cases this can
overwhelm hospital capacity.

When treated aggressively by a capable healthcare system (caught early before
severe symptoms start, treated with antiviral meds, patients put on
supplemental oxygen as soon as blood oxygen starts to dip, hospitals have
enough respirators for severely affected patients) so that people don’t die
while waiting for their immune systems to fight the virus off, many fatalities
can be avoided, as is happening in Singapore or some wealthier provinces in
China. But this depends on social distancing in the community, widespread
testing, aggressive isolation and contact tracing of infected people, and
efficient triage of cases.

If cases are not caught early and treated aggressively or if medical systems
get overwhelmed, it is bad news. If this virus is not checked and spreads
throughout the world quickly, the death toll could be in the millions.

Beyond being very dangerous to a substantial proportion of infected people, it
is also extremely contagious, and has been spreading very rapidly. It is
contagious even among pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic people. Perhaps most
dangerously, its early symptoms are close enough to ordinary cold/flu symptoms
(and some of the infected seem to not advance to the more serious stage) that
people who are shedding the virus continue to go about their everyday lives
without realizing they are infected with novel coronavirus instead of a
typical cold or flu.

~~~
zaroth
To be clear, at this time we only the “CFR” - known case fatality rate.
Likewise, we only know the known case hospitalization rate.

What we do not know, and can only estimate, is the “IFR” or the overall
infection fatality rate, and the overall infection hospitalization rate.

Imagine the flu was a brand new virus which we didn’t have any test for. In 3
months we would see 100,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths from this new
virus.

Only after testing became inexpensive and widespread would we come to realize
that actually 32 million people were infected with this virus, but only
200,000 per year went to the hospital, about 20,000 of which end up dying.

My point is, we do not know the infection hospitalization rate, nor the
infection fatality rate of COVID-19, but its _upper bound_ is the CFR and it’s
reasonable to suspect the actual value is at least an order of magnitude lower
than the current CFR data might indicate.

It’s not reasonable to state anything definitively about the overall
hospitalization rate of COVID at this time without the qualifier that it’s
based on only _known_ cases and therefore overstated by some unknown amount.

You may find this letter (written March 4th) from doctors specializing in
Emergency Medicine more compelling than my own summary:

[https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m606/rr-5](https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m606/rr-5)

~~~
jacobolus
Edit: I was basing my comment on a 2018 newspaper story, but thanks for
tracking down a peer-reviewed model estimate. I deleted my comment as it
didn’t make a grounded comparison.

We can only wait and see how many people die from ncov-19 in Italy or anywhere
else.

~~~
zaroth
> _“We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981
> attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013 /14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and
> 2016/17, respectively, using the Goldstein index. The average annual
> mortality excess rate per 100,000 ranged from 11.6 to 41.2 with most of the
> influenza-associated deaths per year registered among the elderly.”_

> _“In the winter seasons from 2013 /14 to 2016/17, an estimated average of
> 5,290,000 ILI cases occurred in Italy, corresponding to an incidence of 9%.
> More than 68,000 deaths attributable to flu epidemics were estimated in the
> study period.”_

(Edited) The wording here is confusing. It’s an average of 5.2 million cases
per year for 4 years resulting in a total of 68,000 deaths over 4 years.
Meaning an average of 0.325% IFR due to Flu (ILI - “influenza-like illness” in
Italy.

That’s a high confidence IFR based on a well established surveillance network
and widespread testing. Meaning it is likely not being overstated. Versus
COVID’s know case fatality rate, which is an upper bound on the IFR and known
to be missing a _significant_ number of mild cases in the general population
from the denominator.

I agree that it remains to be seen how bad this will be in Italy and
elsewhere, but putting it in perspective to the flu (which we do not generally
“fear”) is useful.

[1] -
[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197121...](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285)

~~~
jacobolus
Consider the chain of reasoning in
[https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html)

~~~
zaroth
This is just dark fiction, not science.

If any of this were true, China would already be totally overrun. Instead they
are reported fewer than 150 new cases per day and closing their temporary
hospitals.

My prediction is that we will see the same thing happening in Italy and South
Korea in two/three weeks time.

~~~
jacobolus
The counter-prediction is irresponsible wishful thinking. China just did the
most extreme and largest-scale social shutdown in modern history.

I sincerely hope you are right though.

------
Causality1
I wonder if we'll see actual price reductions on the consumer end. Somehow I
don't see franchises like Red Lobster bothering to pass their savings on to
the customer.

~~~
jfengel
For restaurants that sell the lobster at "market price", you might see it
change by a dollar or two. But in general, note that the price of a meal is
driven much more by demand than by the cost of ingredients, which are only
about a third of the actual price of a meal.

~~~
nappy-doo
Most stores near me sell chicken lobsters (1-2lbs). Most recent years, the
lobster catches have been really good, and prices are generally
4.99$-5.99$/lb. Getting them steamed adds very little to the prices.

Those same chicken lobsters will cost you 20+ at a restaurant, and would be
15-20 for a lobster roll. Restaurant prices haven't moved (up or down) in more
than decade.

------
drcode
so... anyone know of any seafood chains that have specials that would let us
all get some yummy lobsters for cheap?

~~~
kortilla
It’s only 17% lower than the prices last year. Not gonna be that noticeable in
retail prices. Not even worth a 2 for 1 special.

------
jaequery
What other trickle down effects will we be seeing soon?

------
chewz
Perhaps FED could intervene buying lobsters to support this important asset
class..?

------
Taniwha
Same thing here in NZ, they're actually putting lobsters back in the sea.

------
jccalhoun
This is a great example of how interrelated so many economies have become.

------
neonate
[https://archive.md/5vDyW](https://archive.md/5vDyW)

------
xwdv
Is buying lobsters and freeing them back into the oceans a thing that people
do?

~~~
pvaldes
> people buying lobsters and freeing them back into the oceans?

I hope that not. Would be a disaster

~~~
xwdv
Why?

~~~
pvaldes
I can't see the point of releasing a pacific lobster from America in Brighton,
for example. Would be like releasing coyotes in France.

~~~
pvaldes
And there are the damages over $400 million dollars also and increasing... Did
I mention that?

------
cpeterso
From the headline, I was expecting a story about lobsters having a lobster
virus.

~~~
dang
We've added some disambiguation above.

