
The EU is beginning to believe the UK wants Brexit trade talks to fail - lawrenceyan
https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-trade-talks-eu-uk-negotiations-fail-transition-period-2020-5
======
Havoc
"Beginning to"?

I thought that was accepted fact at this stage.

Super short arguably impossible deadline, little progress, then COVID happens
and the UK insists keeping said deadline anyway?

Meanwhile the UK home press is hitting their population with quality gems
like:

>EU civil war erupts: States furious as Barnier poised to surrender [0]

Anyone expecting in-good-faith negotiations is in for a surprise.

[0] [https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1287373/Brexit-news-
Michel...](https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1287373/Brexit-news-Michel-
Barnier-UK-EU-trade-talks-fishing-rights-latest-update/amp)

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Traster
There is no point discussing anything about the UK's brexit process until the
deadline is either passed, or imminent, as has been shown time and time again.
The transition agreement the UK is currently in was meant to be 21 months
originally. The UK spent 10 months of that time deciding whether they actually
agreed to _have_ the 21 month transition.

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akerro
Everyone observing the topic knew this 2 years ago, but that's first time
someone important said it out loud.

~~~
Izkata
Yeah, I'm in the US and only have relatively vague knowledge from some
youtubers, and my response to this title was along the lines of "well, duh".

From what I remember the terms set by the EU would've put the UK in a worse
position than what caused Brexit in the first place, making people steadily
lean more and more towards a "just get it over with, no-deal Brexit".

~~~
Someone
I think “terms set by the EU” is framing. One could also call it “terms
negotiated between the EU and the UK”, and I think that’s closer to the truth.

The UK’s position _“we want to keep free trade, but don’t want to abide to the
rules that go with it, and there definitely can’t be a border between the UK
and Ireland in Northern Ireland, but there must be one between Europe and the
UK”_ won elections at home, but they never could have expected the EU to
accept them.

~~~
throwaway_pdp09
There's some weird delusory arrogance amongst BoJo and some large chunk of
conservatives (and some chunk of the electorate) that we're still special and
a world power. We're not, haven't been for a while. Being british is not the
magic incantation it once was. People need to grow up.

\- a brit.

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tialaramex
The more interesting question is what the path from here to a united Ireland
looks like. Under No Deal Brexit that's essentially assured as the outcome in
the opinion of people I know who grew up on the island or lived much of their
lives there. Change could be paused indefinitely while both parts of the
island were anyway members of the EU but that can't last now.

Is there a peaceful route? Or will the Troubles be reignited?

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anewdirection
When no-deal looks as appeling as the deals being offered, this was an
eventuality. I think many knew this going in. I doubt, however, that this is
purely due to foot-dragging by the current government, and more to do with
some hard-won lack of trust on both sides of the negotiating table. Both the
UK and the EU made some unfortunte moves, shady deals, and asinine assertions,
in the brexit adventure that will likely poison the well for years to come.
Until a compelling (military or financial) reason comes along, I expect the
situation to mostly remain the same.

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louniks
But why? From my very limited knowledge on this, it seems everyone is saying
that a no-deal crash out will be bad economically. So is it just ideology
(dare I say dogmatism) from the Johnson government at this point?

~~~
noir-york
A mix of tactics and politics.

While Brexit is bad economically, the political argument is different.

~~~
throwaway_pdp09
eh? politics = economics, pretty much

~~~
noir-york
politics = economics, pretty much?!

I'm afraid you are seriously mistaken. Just take court jurisdiction and
supremacy of parliament.

Politics is very much not economics, at least when it comes to Brexit.

~~~
throwaway_pdp09
People vote with their wallet, right or wrong.

As for "court jurisdiction and supremacy of parliament", given the way the
government has abused its powers at times, I'd like a higher court than the UK
one.

BTW I did raise a question illegality by the UK government with the EU. Stuff
started to get done. The UK government's standard brush-off to being
challenged on something they don't want to answer to, is "it's not in the
public interest". Which is bullshit.

If the UK government wasn't so tossy and incompetent, I might be a lot more
sympathetic to "court jurisdiction and supremacy of parliament"

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pmontra
As EU citizen I'm not worried about this. First, the UK is smaller than the EU
so the burden of a no deal is larger for them than for us. Second and by far
more important, there are plenty of countries outside the EU and we trade with
all of them. We'll keep trading with the UK too. My only wish was that they
left at least one year earlier (when they should have). We would have already
settled many issues by now.

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BrandoElFollito
As a French this is infuriating.

Brexit will have an impact on us and the UK. Fine. Now get out and the one who
is most interested will be back with negotiations.

I fully understand that there will be impacts. As of now it looks like two old
persons who are making their live miserable, but in the name of some vague
conventions do not want to divorce.

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Krasnol
UK knows it won't end well either way. But if the talks fail it'll be drastic
enough to blame the EU for everything. Same people voted for Brexit will buy
that too.

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krona
The current settlement is unstable and the uncertainty it causes will
ultimately (given enough time) cause more damage than a 'no deal' outcome.
Therefore while knowledgeable people can disagree about timing, it nonetheless
means that worst-case scenario for the UK is not the one the EU wants it to
be.

------
makomk
The EU has pretty good evidence for this - the UK won't even agree to any
realistic terms, where "realistic" is defined as not only giving the EU
everything they want now but also anything they might want in the future,
making them the ones who unilaterally decide how the deal is interpreted, and
giving them and only them the ability to punish the UK for perceived
violations of the deal.

I'm not sure this belongs on HN though. As you might gather, this is 100%
politics in its purist form.

~~~
quonn
Do you have a source?

~~~
noir-york
Just take a look at the EU's fisheries position which is basically the status
quo as if the UK had never left the EU.

Which is crazy; either the UK has left the EU and so cannot enjoy the same
market access as a member, and the EU correspondingly has reduced access to UK
market, or else there is full access for both parties.

Source: [https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-uk-fishing-in-troubled-
wa...](https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-uk-fishing-in-troubled-waters-in-
brexit-talks/)

~~~
evgen
The EU fisheries position is simply that the UK gets no special favours. The
problem the UK faces is that the fish they catch are varieties that are mostly
sold to European markets because UK consumers don't want them. Now they want
the benefits of their own fisheries policy and to somehow magically get free
access to the EU market to sell those fish they catch.

Oh, and a large chunk of the fishing rights to those waters were sold by UK
fishermen to EU fishermen several decades ago.

