
United Airlines piloting technology to manage the problem of oversold flights - tomhoward
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-12/united-wants-to-sell-your-seat-to-someone-else-for-more-money
======
tomhoward
The company mentioned in the article as the provider of this technology,
Volantio, is the entity that was previously called Adioso, which was in YC in
2009. Some HN readers may remember some blog posts I wrote a few years ago
about the struggles we went through.

If you ever wondered what happened to Adioso, well, here's part of the answer.
The company took the insights and technology assets it had developed for the
consumer market and turned them into enterprise services to offer to airlines,
and that has been the focus for the past 3-4 years.

As evidenced by this breakthrough, it has turned out to be a very good move.

The original Adioso product still exists but in a different entity, and its
current status is best described as _side-project_. I'm still optimistic that
the original vision we had for Adioso as a consumer product will be realised,
but it will end up looking very different to what it's been to date.

In the meantime, it's extremely pleasing to see Volantio making such an
impact.

~~~
thomasahle
Given you know the market well, how would you find a cheap destination given
two different places of departure?

For example, you live in country A and your special someone lives in country
B, and you want to list countries C and airports in order of smallest sum of
two return tickets.

Is there an api that flight search websites use, which you can get access to?
Or are there already websites offering such a feature?

~~~
robjan
The closest to an API which aggregates all flights is a Global Distribution
System (GDS), of which there are three in common use. Airlines publish their
inventory on the GDS and travel agents book through them.

There are some exceptions. GDS cost money so budget airlines usually don't
bother with them. In that case, they may publish an API which agents may
consume, or the agent may screen scrape them.

------
boyter
I don't really understand the reasoning behind overselling seats. Every time I
hear it happen when passing though the USA I am reminded of the Seinfeld line,

"You know how to take the reservation, but not how to hold the reservation."

Clearly there is some sort of profit motive for the airlines, but how can this
be legal. It seems wrong to oversell a limited resource like this. Even if not
legal it feels scammy on the lines of "upto" speeds for ISP's.

~~~
Someone
They wouldn't do it if there weren't a profit.

Say you're an airline, and you notice that all your planes get fully booked,
but on every flight, 2 to 5 passengers do not turn up or miss their flight.

That means that you can easily sell 2 extra tickets for each flight. That's
free money (as good as; fuel consumption will go up a tiny bit)

Now, there's the rare case where too many passengers turn up. So, you pick out
a college student or backpacker who is happy to take a flight an hour later in
exchange for money, a free ticket for another flight, or whatever. That costs
you a bit, but as long as it is rare enough, the net result still is extra
money, and, ideally, everybody is happy.

Airlines have departments that compute the ideal amount of overbooking.

So, how can it be legal? That's easy; if you book a flight, you accept terms
and conditions, and no government has seen reason to make it illegal.

~~~
davchana
I am very much ready to pay a single digit percentage of ticket price in
return of guarantee of no-bump seat.

~~~
Larrikin
What about those that can't afford to pay. Are their plans less important
because they can't afford the no-bump class?

~~~
Sleeep
I really can't understand this comment. I have a friend whose dream it is to
go to Japan but can't afford the cost. Should airlines lower the cost flights
just so her and her family can afford to buy tickets?

Anyways, the bumping situation only would come up rarely, most oversold
flights don't have to bump anyone and usually oversold flights have volunteers
before they have to involuntary bump someone.

~~~
Larrikin
The question has nothing to do with an entirely optional vacation. You've
bought a ticket for a funeral, a job interview, etc. Why should it be ok for
the airlines to bump you off your flight when you have bought a ticket? Just
so they can make a little bit more money when people occasionally don't show
up?

~~~
CaptainZapp
To be fair. Involuntary bumping is happening very rarely.

Airlines don't have an interest to bump passengers. At least in Europe this
can be relatively costly as in up to 600EUR compensation per passenger. Add
hotel rooms, multiple restaurant visits, taxis and communication costs to
that. Add the image loss if this happens too frequently.

Airlines employ extremely complex math and statistical models to avoid bumping
passengers, while filling the plane to capacity and mostly it works out. If it
doesn't they usually find volounteers, who are willing to be bumped, provided
that they are fairly compensated and provided with a reasonable alternative.

------
nathancahill

        def buy_ticket():
            if soldout:
                return False

~~~
opticalflow
Here, I fixed it for you:

if (globalservices) {

    
    
        yourescrewed=0;
    
        upgradeprobability=0.25f;
    
        bumpprobability=0.0f;
    

} else if (united1k) {

    
    
        yourescrewed=1;
    
        upgradeprobability=0.10f;
    
        bumpprobability=0.01f;
    

} else if (unitedplatinum) {

    
    
        yourescrewed=1;
    
        upgradeprobability=0.05f;
    
        bumpprobability=0.05f*(1-premiumeconomy*0.5);
    

} else if (unitedgold) {

    
    
        yourescrewed=1;
    
        upgradeprobability=0.001f;
    
        bumpprobability=0.10f*(1-premiumeconomy*0.5);
    

} else if (unitedsilver) {

    
    
        yourescrewed=2;
    
        upgradeprobability=0.000001f;
    
        bumpprobability=0.10f;
    

} else if (any_other_schmuck) {

    
    
        yourescrewed=NaN;
    
        go_f_yourself=1*(united_basic_economy);
    
        assault_probability=0.01f;
    
        upgradeprobability=0.0f;
    
        bumpprobability=0.20f;
    
        baggage_fees=1;
    
    }

~~~
SeoxyS
The probability of a bump for a 1K is more like 0.00001f (Source: I'm 1K).
Basically they'd have to bump every other non-elite and lower-elite before
even getting to you. The only time it can happen is if a gate agent screws up
(unloads you as a no-show before the 15min mark, or clears you from standby
into an already occupied seat (this has happened to me).

Also I would say a GS upgrade probability is closer to 0.9f. 1K can be
anywhere from 0.1f to 0.8f depending on the routes flown (a consultant flying
hub-to-hub around beginning / end of week will be 0.1f; me flying leisure
routes mid-week will be 0.8f).

------
mikeash
Sounds like a decent idea overall, except once again they're sticking to those
stupid useless travel vouchers instead of paying people actual money.

You want to solve this problem? Offer cash. I'd volunteer to be bumped 99% of
the time if they offered cash. As it is, my percentage is 0.

~~~
dmoy
There is a law in the US that they are required to give you cash. However they
will always ask if anyone wants to volunteer for a voucher first, and keep
raising the value of the voucher. If nobody takes it, whoever gets bumped gets
cash. Usually that never happens.

You can go to the faa website and read how much cash, it's some multiple of
the ticket price.

~~~
mikeash
That's not quite the same. Bumping people involuntarily and paying them the
minimum cash required by law is how you end up with security beating people up
to get them off the plane.

I don't think that law should exist. They should be required to pay whatever
it takes to get enough people to go willingly.

~~~
dmoy
The point is that they _do_ offer enough to get people to bump voluntarily,
and it _doesn 't include any cash like 90%+ of the time_, because people are
willing to accept travel voucher instead.

If no such law exists, and everyone refuses up to like a million dollars, than
what, the plane just sits there and nobody leaves? There should be some cap.
Maybe it should be higher, but not unlimited. (I'd be more in favor of no
overbooking at all honesty)

The other part of the problem is lack of awareness. Most people in the US
don't know you are legally entitled to cash if bumped involuntarily. If they
knew, more would hold out for cash instead of vouchers.

~~~
adekok
> f no such law exists, and everyone refuses up to like a million dollars,
> than what, the plane just sits there and nobody leaves?

Or maybe, the plane leaves because it's full, and everyone has boarded?

It's beyond me why anything thinks it's a good idea to hold up a full plane
because someone _else_ wants to board.

~~~
imgabe
Because that someone else also paid for a ticket and was told by the airline
that they would be on that flight. The airline is the one responsible here,
not the passenger who gave them money for a ticket with no idea that there
wasn't actually a seat to go with it.

------
tiku
Why not just sell the overbooked seats AS overbooked seats. So the person
booking that seat knows, it might happen, or not.. In that case the tickets
are more interesting to people who can get a flight a day later without
problems etc.. Simple money back policy so it wont resort to incidents with
cops or buyout money..

~~~
Simon_says
They already are; they're just not marketed as such. If you want a non-
overbooked seat, fly first class.

~~~
tiku
Exactly my point, they could and should market them as such.. Even could be
forced by the government for it, because it is a different product than a seat
that is available..

------
horsecaptin
United's problems aren't technological, they are cultural. It is their culture
that created the terrible episodes that we're so used to seeing.

~~~
bryanrasmussen
I was expecting the technology they were piloting was stun guns.

------
mrmcd
Oh boy, a "travel voucher" that likely has so many restrictions it's worth
1/10th the actual number printed on it.

I'm not gonna hold my breath these people will actually offer cash.

~~~
Sleeep
The vast majority of travel vouchers are never redeemed. It's like printing
free money for them!

[http://www.seattletimes.com/life/travel/travel-wise-
donrsquo...](http://www.seattletimes.com/life/travel/travel-wise-donrsquot-
take-that-airline-voucher-mdash-go-for-cash/)

> >Redemption rates on vouchers hover somewhere between 5 percent and 8
> percent

------
mrfusion
They really just need a technology for treating people with dignity and
respect.

------
bogomipz
>"This week, United Airlines Inc. is quietly unveiling a new technology
platform that it will use to manage the problem of oversold flights—and, in
the same breath, turn them into a profit opportunity."

Not fix the problem but "manage" it. Imagine telling your boss you've decided
to manage a problem instead of fixing the root cause.

>"With the help of its new Flex-Schedule Program, the airline is piloting a
way to buck the trend of involuntary bumping—the term for kicking passengers
off oversold flights—without necessarily offering four-figure payouts to
passengers at the gate, or curbing their practice of overselling inventory."

Rather than fix a problem that they themselves are responsible for they are
instead going to treat it as a "revenue stream"? Why is this even legal? If
you experienced this at a car dealer, a restaurant or a hotel you would never
do business with them again.

Is there any other industry that knowingly engages in selling the exact same
item to two different people only to cause stress to one of those two people?

They are still bumping you, they just aren't doing it at the last minute. Vote
with your wallet and avoid this airline altogether.

------
IIAOPSW
United Airlines piloting technology to close barn door after horse has bolted.

------
chrisbolt
Delta’s had this since 2011: [http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/how-
delta-masters-t...](http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/how-delta-
masters-the-game-of-overbooking-flights/)

~~~
fencepost
More significantly, Delta does this at check in time and solicits bids, aka
'volunteering.' Because the people involved have volunteered, Delta can accept
the lowest bids AND because people have volunteered there's a big reduction in
legal protections of that becomes significant - they volunteered and
surrendered their seats, they weren't bumped.

~~~
chx
United is also soliciting volunteers at check in. I got $400 in Austin in 2014
to fly a day later. Sweet! Their first offer was $120 which I refused.

But certainly Delta has been paying more, it was a 3000+ ppl computer
conference ending and some sports event at the same time so the airport was a
total gong show and Delta paid a friend of mine $1200 to not fly to New York.

~~~
Jonnax
Is that real money or vouchers?

If it is vouchers, do you still need to pay fees on top of that?

~~~
paulmd
Also, vouchers can usually only be redeemed directly through the airline,
which usually means you'll be paying a "full price" fare.

That $300 flight you buy on Orbitz is considered a hugely discounted fare. The
same seat at "full fare" would be $900-1000.

So in this example, if you got a $400 voucher for being bumped from another
equivalent trip, the expected value of the voucher is -$200 because you would
have to pay the airline ($900 - 400 = $500) to book that $300 seat. You would
need to combine multiple vouchers before it made financial sense.

~~~
chx
I respectfully disagree and even question how experienced you are with the
flight industry.

The reality is that the lowest fares are often found on the airline website
and the airline website only and the voucher is good there. There are
sometimes but rarely real good offers on these OTAs but it's literally getting
rarer and rarer day by day.

------
opticalflow
Well, all I can say as a former Continental Platinum (and later United 1K) is
that the combination has resulted in the uttermost cesspool of service, fees,
annoyances, and outright insults (thanks for stranding me overnight in
Louisville KY on my way home to NJ and not even giving me a voucher for a
hotel!). Anything they can do to improve service is fine in my book, but I'm
not holding my breath. And just don't get me started on upgrades, delays, and
bumps... let's just say I never fly United unless it's a direct flight.

------
cgtyoder
IT'S NOT A TECHNOLOGY PROBLEM

------
Grue3
They're now going to use robots to beat passengers up?

~~~
barkingcat
No need to beat them up. The new robots are licensed to dispense tranquilizers
so the passengers become compliant.

------
Hnrobert42
I find it amusing that the article describes United solving the problem of
oversold flights as if United didn't create the problem itself.

~~~
tialaramex
Customers created the problem, not United.

People want to pay the _absolute_ minimum possible to travel, no exceptions.
If you tell people "For $5 more we won't have you kicked in the head by an
angry toddler" people loudly tell each other "Yeah, yeah, I really want that,
$5 is a steal". And then, they click "No thanks" and say to themselves "Saved
myself $5"

Every safety feature on an aeroplane is there because it's mandated by law. If
you let people go without for a dollar, people who'd use a dollar to wrap used
gum will forego the safety to save a dollar, because people think of every
dollar spent on air travel as somehow "wasted" even as they simultaneously
complain about how awful air travel is.

Over the years Airlines have _tried_ telling customers they're interested in
offering a better service for a higher price, and customers almost all say
that's what they want, and almost all choose a different, cheaper airline.
This is the customers' fault, as clear as day.

~~~
TillE
This is an incredibly popular meme, with absolutely zero compelling evidence
to support it.

Airlines are, in general, _incredibly bad_ at advertising the small ways in
which their coach seats are better. You have to go to weird niche websites to
find this information. And you're blaming the customers here?

------
elygre
For a second I thought they were going to start using transactions, to avoid
selling seats that they don't have.

------
exabrial
With the exception of Southwest, everyone else is as bad or worse than United.

------
dwighttk
Is it dragging?

------
shazeubaa
"United Airlines piloting technology" \-- I see what you did there.

