
His 2020 Campaign Message: The Robots Are Coming - sndean
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/10/technology/his-2020-campaign-message-the-robots-are-coming.html
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grzm
Earlier discussion (7 months ago, 37 points, over 30 comments):
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16354566](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16354566)

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taneq
People looking at the Automatiopocalypse as being the result of advanced AI
and super high tech are missing the scary point: We don't need self-driving
cars or Turing-test-passing chatbots to put 30% of the population out of work.
We just need to finish the roll-out of bog standard dumb automation to
supermarket checkouts, airport baggage drops, self-service kiosks, fast food
restaurants etc. People at the low end of the market are already scratching
for jobs and they're running out of higher land to run to.

~~~
ObsoleteNerd
Couldn't agree more. Self-driving cars are exciting to report on, so get all
the attention, but I'm absolutely convinced that general day-to-day automation
of award-wage jobs will be the sneaky left hander that shakes society up.

When they get supermarket self-checkouts to be as foolproof as staffed
checkouts (eg some kind of NFC/RFID based walk-through scanning, and not this
current "customer does the work" one that still needs constant assistance and
staffing), you're already putting a HUGE number of people out of work.

McDonalds has been pushing their automated systems HARD here in Australia,
with all kinds of perks if you use their app or in-store touchscreens to order
and pay. Our local one in the last couple years alone went from 4-5 staff on
front, to 1, maybe 2 in peak.

Online grocery shopping is so common here now that I don't know many people
who actually go to the shops for their big weekly shop, just to grab a few
items for cravings and bits and pieces on the way home from work. Of my 5
closest local friends, 4 do their primary weekly groceries online, whereas a
couple years ago it was 1.

Ikea does self-checkout now, and sometimes has no staffed checkouts open here,
unless you have special needs then they'll open one for you (we're usually
dragging kids and prams so they'll open one for us).

I now renew my car rego, insurance, license, etc online. Just a few years ago
that HAD to be done in person, at the dreaded roads authority. I haven't been
in there for a couple years now, and it used to be 2-3 times a year for
various things.

The robots aren't coming, they're already here.

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taneq
Exactly. People see the one attendant standing near the self-checkouts and
think "See? The jobs are still there!" But there's one attendant. Where are
the other five checkout chicks they used to employ? They're not designing
automated machinery or coding vision algorithms, that's for sure.

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mc32
He's not wrong. But I think the biggest impact of all this restructuring will
be underdeveloped economies which don't have natural resources to lean on.
Economies with young and growing populations.

Western Europe, East Asia and the US will be much less affected than those
whose natural populations have not stabilized. You can expect upheaval there
from generations with no future either at home or abroad (if Yang's
predictions come true).

What's surprising to me is that you have two different factions on the left:
Traditional pro-labor camp who are worried about this possibility and the new
technocratic progressive left which is trying to downplay the possibility.

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taurath
> But I think the biggest impact of all this restructuring will be
> underdeveloped economies which don't have natural resources to lean on.

Almost our entire cultural value is based upon labor and hard work being able
to make a living for yourself. If you can no longer do so, what happens?

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mc32
As a non-economist, all one can do is take a stab at an idea. The natural pops
of mature economies are decreasing, which eases the pain, but that also means
a smaller contributory pop. funding non-workers. Can basic income close the
gap? Doubtful. That gap is huuuuge. Bernie is crazy if he thinks radical
taxation can cover the gap.

Underdeveloped economies may or may not be able to achieve widespread
affluence, if there is no natural ladder to climb in an economy. On the other
hand their expectations are lower than that of the pops in mature economies.
Still, it seems calamitous.

Still, if his prediction plays out, then pain lies ahead. If it's slow coming
like the one Japan is virtually experiencing, it may be palatable, to a great
degree.

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013a
Everyone keeps saying that automation will mean we have/get to work less.
People were saying it in 1900. People were saying it in 1950. People were
saying it in 2000. People are saying it in 2018. Still waiting for those
unemployment numbers to not be the lowest they've been in recent history.

Turns out people rather like working, at least more than the alternative. Most
jobs suck. I'm not hoping for or expecting a future without jobs; I'm hopeful
for a future with better jobs.

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senectus1
if robots are going to push people out of work, then how will people earn
money to buy the things that the expensive robots will make?

Its not zero sum.

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mirceal
Pay the robots a wage. Robots will buy things. /s

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Glyptodon
I continue to worry that housing supply might need to be addressed in most
major urban areas for basic income type proposals to work at all.

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mooneater
I believe him, but i think it will be hard to win the popular with that
platform. Voters are not known for planning ahead.

