
The Coming Technological Singularity (1993) - doener
https://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/vinge/misc/singularity.html
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e40
This gets posted from time to time. I highly recommend Vernor Vinge's _A Fire
Upon the Deep_. One of my favorite SciFi novels of all time. When I read it
(90s), before the www was in wide spread adoption and usenet was king, there
are some very funny usenet riffs in the book. Anyone that was alive and aware
of early usenet will appreciate it. My favorite Vinge usenet header:
Translation-Path.

~~~
indubitably
I've tried so many times to read that book, but I can never get past the packs
of communal-brain dogs.

~~~
hga
Indeed, it's essentially two books in one, and that half of it was always a
slog to get through.

 _Marooned in Realtime_ is better for getting the Singularity across, although
you really need to read _The Peace War_ first; this collection has both plus a
bridging short: [http://www.amazon.com/Across-Realtime-Vernor-
Vinge/dp/185798...](http://www.amazon.com/Across-Realtime-Vernor-
Vinge/dp/1857981472/)

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mchahn
> Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create
> superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.

This was written in 1993 so 30 years makes it 2023. That may not be too far
off.

~~~
pmoriarty
Fortune telling is a dangerous business.

It would be interesting to know if Vernor Vinge stands by his prediction and
still thinks that the end of the human era is only 7 years away.

~~~
simonh
To be fair, he admits in the article that it might never happen. It was just
an extrapolation based in a best guess of the computational complexity of the
human brain and advances in computer technology. But it was still just an
estimate.

It was also based on an implicit assumption that once we had computers
equivalent in power to the brain, that shortly afterwards we would have
computers as intelligent as a human brain. But that assumes that programming
an AI, or replicating the architecture of the brain, is essentially a trivial
task given the required hardware. I think it's pretty clear now that this
isn't true. We have very little idea how the brain really works. Even now
estimates of the computational power of neurons or cortical columns vary
enormously and are essentially guesses.

~~~
mchahn
> replicating the architecture of the brain, is essentially a trivial task
> given the required hardware. I think it's pretty clear now that this isn't
> true.

I think it will be like airplanes. We don't flap our wings but we fly.

