
I dropped over 40 grand when I could have spent $100 - timborden
http://boondainc.wordpress.com/2013/04/18/i-dropped-over-40-grand-when-i-could-have-spent-100/
======
ericabiz
I agree with you that perfect sizing is the future of fashion retail--
especially online. However, I completely disagree with your methodology.

This demographic is going to be won over by _marketing_ , and you didn't have
the correct marketing play in hand when you ran this survey. I'm going to give
you an example:

If you ask people: "When shopping for clothes on the web, would you submit
your email address if...?"

Most people would probably say no. "Submitting your email address" sounds like
you're about to "submit to" a bunch of junk email!

However, if you ask them if they want a perfect fit (you'll probably need a
better way of saying this than you have right now--you'll want to do
demographic research to find out how high-income women actually would
articulate this), you can find a demographic that will say "yes". As a bonus,
you'll have the lingo they use and be more easily able to sell to them because
you are speaking their language.

tl;dr: Given the word choices and copy you could have used, "submit your body
measurements" was almost guaranteed to bust, but it doesn't mean you have the
wrong idea. It just means you have the wrong way of saying that idea in a way
that appeals to your market.

~~~
tarr11
"perfect fit" may be less of an issue than you think for high end fashion. If
you asked them if they have trouble finding the perfect fit, I wonder what
they would say. A lot of these women wear things like Lululemon, which fits
really well, and makes their butt look good.

They don't necessarily wear high end fashion (heels, skirts, whatever) because
it "fits". They wear it because they like how it looks, how it makes them
feel, etc.

My wife is an independent high end fashion designer. Working on fit is
incredibly hard and specialized, from a product and marketing perspective.
Good patterns are the fashion equivalent of good software. They take a long
time to get right and require a lot of work. They also don't necessarily
translate to an online experience that well, for several reasons.

Any business in this space needs to overcome them:

High end designers usually target particular body types, and then market
specifically to that group.

I worked on a project for Levi's in the 90s for getting the perfect fit for
jeans. We had laser cutters, 3D body scanners, and more.

It failed. Getting the right fit wasn't a just a matter of measurements. It
was a manufacturing issue too.

Even two garments that have the same measurements may not fit exactly the same
because of manufacturing issues, fabric tolerances, even customer perception.

When a customer tries a garment on, it can stretch, alter or rip. So if they
don't purchase it, the second person trying it on may not have the same
experience.

A garment that "fits" someone may not actually look good, depending on their
body type.

High end customers also have expectations of being able to return anything,
for any reason (think of how Nordstrom's handles this for example) These
things can really hurt margins.

~~~
HeyLaughingBoy
I'm a little puzzled by the "perfect fit" thing myself. In college I worked
for a men's specialty clothing store in NYC. All the expensive stuff (IOW,
most of what they sold) was adjusted by the in-house tailors. You'd buy
something off the rack, and then be immediately taken to someone who would
take your measurements and take it in/let it out to get a good fit.

Doesn't this kind of thing happen anymore?

D

~~~
alanctgardner2
Even cheap stuff looks better if you get it altered, but yeah; the price-point
this guy is targeting doesn't really wear 'off-the-rack' clothes. I wonder if
he did any research at all, or he just thought "People with lots of money will
pay lots of money for clothes". They shop pretty much entirely differently
than your average (or even above average) consumer.

------
GabrielF00
Unless I'm missing something here it looks like there were a total of 17
responses (8 yes 9 no). Are you really making a major business decision on a
survey with an N of 17?

~~~
columbo
This is a really good point, it was the first thing I noticed as well. 17
responses isn't even enough to throw a margin of error at, the entire survey
is effectively a margin of error of 100%.

If it really was only 17 responses that's the equivalent of asking five people
on the street if they like hot dogs and then deciding based on their answers
to open up a laundromat in Brooklyn.

~~~
hexedpackets
Once you add in a proper confidence interval, 17 responses on a yes/no
question is enough to make decisions like this - as long as you know in
advance what your target numbers are. The downside of the small sample is that
your margin is going to be extremely large, of course.

Using Clopper-Pearson at95% confidence tells us that between 23.3% and 70.8%
would answer yes to this question. I do agree that is probably still too broad
to decide to kill a business, but if you know you wanted a 60%+ (for example)
positive response from this audience to hen that sample is enough to cause
some serious worry.

~~~
svachalek
It's then breaking them down into subcategories. Look at the confidence
interval on the posted charts: +/- 80% on the high income responses this
survey was interested in. I.E. worthless.

------
edw519
_The target audience for Rewire Attire, the high end fashion marketplace, was
women with enough money ..._

Whenever I read "target audience" and "with enough money" in the same
sentence, I run the other way.

My experience with prospects "with enough money":

    
    
      - there are far less of them than everyone else
      - many of them didn't earn it themselves, so...
      - they really don't really understand the concept of "value"
      - they don't understand investing vs. consuming
      - they think they are actually the source of their own gifts, so...
      - they think they're better than others, so...
      - they will treat you like shit, not like a trusted business partner
      - they will second guess you
      - they will override you
      - they'll blame you for the bad things
      - they'll take credit for the good things
      - they won't pay you on time
      - they will protest their bills
      - they'll make you hate them and wonder why you're doing this
    

Save yourself the agony and just build something for the masses, where no one
can become big enough to make that much difference.

Edit: Like OP, I'm referring to B2C, not enterprise.

Edit 2: Normally when I see a bunch of bizarre replies to a post of mine that
begins with "My experience...", I just close my browser and go back to work.
But I guess I'm in a strange mood, so in order to avoid cluttering up this
thread (and in the spirit of good clean fun without malice), here goes:

diego, you say "One data point is not generalizable..." and then introduce
your own data point. It was never my intent to "generalize", just to share my
experience.

chc, I'd prefer to read about what you _did_ over of what you _hear_. If I'm
going to listen to someone else's antecdote, I'd rather do it over beers.

PaulHoule, nice story, but what's the point?

larrys, My list does not directly contradict the success of just about all
luxury brands that have been successful. They would probably agree. They've
just chosen to thrive in such an environment. I don't.

Samuel_Michon. I believe you. Thanks for sharing your experience.

fredsted, it pretty much does not differ from everybody else? I'd rather have
100 difficult customers with 1% of my ass than 1 difficult customer with 100%
of my ass. That's all.

(Sorry if the tone seems negative. I'd love to learn how to better communicate
in writing on-line without being misunderstood... It's a work in progress.)

~~~
PaulHoule
High end consumers are often jerks, but so are some people who sell to them.

I know a woman who makes hand-knit sweaters for about $250. She makes them out
of acrylic yarn, which shocks me. If I'm going to spend a lot for clothes I'm
going to want a nice material, like wool. Particularly when you consider the
cost of the labor, the extra cost of the wool is nothing.

She told me she did sell a wool sweater to somebody who went home and washed
in hot, it shrank, and then heard no ends of complaints about it, so she
resolved to never sell wool sweaters unless they are specially commissioned.

Some luxury retailers provide a great experience, like the ones around Rodeo
Drive in Beverly Hills. Other ones make it really clear they hate you. I know
of one retailer in the UK where if you buy something with a credit card you'll
get fraudulent charges from the UK just a day or two after your order.

Nasty.

~~~
larrys
"She told me she did sell a wool sweater to somebody who went home and washed
in hot, it shrank, and then heard no ends of complaints about it, so she
resolved to never sell wool sweaters unless they are specially commissioned."

n=1 there then, right? Perhaps she was a bit to hasty based on that single
data point?

One of the things luxury brands do is bake into their costs margin to account
for customers like this. Or to account for unreasonable people.

~~~
PaulHoule
I think I'm also unusually snobbish about materials.

If you go to a crafts store they usually have a big section of wall devoted to
acrylic yarn. You might find one or two kinds of wool yarn and maybe a blend,
but it's pretty clear that grandmothers who knit stuff for their grandkids
value 20 hours of their time less than the $10 or so difference in the price
of the materials.

~~~
Domenic_S
Look at it the other way: maybe acrylic yarn serves a pain point. Maybe
grandmothers spent 20 hours knitting a beautiful little hat or coat or
something, only to have it ruined in the wash by a young, sleep-deprived
parent, inexperienced in caring for quality hand-crafted goods.

Grandma figures out she can just use acrylic and now her work doesn't get
ruined by washing & drying, and as a bonus the moths don't eat it because who
has a cedar chest anymore?

------
jfarmer
I don't buy this. There's something about the article that annoys me, too. I
can't quite put my finger on it. I think it's because it has a linkbaity
title, a tone of confidence, but is filled with weird stuff.

Disclaimer: I co-founded Everlane (<http://everlane.com>), although I left to
start Dev Bootcamp (<http://devbootcamp.com>) last January. I'm just speaking
for myself.

First, look at the error bars. 100.0% (+0.0/-79.3) Saying "the sample size is
too small" doesn't even do it justice. Looking at numbers like this will put
you in a mindset where you make silly decisions because, hey, they're numbers!
They're objective!

Second, this is not how fashion works. As a rule I don't trust survey results
early on in a product life cycle -- customer's don't have sufficient context,
so you're learning more about their predispositions and biases than their
actual attitudes about your (potential) product.

Talking "scientifically," there's a huge uncontrolled variable here: brand.
Would women share their measurements with Hermès if it meant proper sizing?
How many women who shop for high-end clothes employ something like a personal
shopper? What about stores that sell more intimate products, like lingerie?
How about wedding gowns? Of course a woman would share he measurements to get
fitted for a high-end wedding gown.

I have yet to commit any capital or conduct any surveys and already I feel
like I have a decent framework for approaching these issues. If there are
high-end retailers with whom women are comfortable sharing their measurements,
what is it about those retailers that makes them comfortable?

Why would a woman be willing to share her measurements with Hermés but not
Ross Dress for Less?

IMO that's a 1000x better starting point than the one asked in the survey.

This survey is neither reliable nor valid.

~~~
timborden
You're right, there was more to the decision to pull the plug. Credibility was
something that we thought and worked hard on. If you're credible with your
shoppers, they'll trust you more. I still believe that data can improve fit,
but it may be better suited for a company like Everlane (that makes their own
product) than Rewire Attire (that retails product). The truth is, the survey
was the nail in the coffin. The suggestion of the blog post is that I might
have saved myself a lot of money had I done the survey early. The unspoken
question is, would I have proceeded with the business had I known earlier? Is
it an obstacle that I could overcome? Who knows. Do I regret the
experience....never.

------
modeless
This entire article is based on a failure to understand error bars. The graph
clearly shows that it's _possible_ up to 79% of affluent young women would
answer "yes" to this question, and more data is needed to draw an actual
conclusion.

------
timborden
Wow...thanks for all the comments. I've been a causal reader of Hacker News,
but this was my first post. I'm really impressed all the comments. Lots of
great questions/comments.

There was one thing I neglected to mention in the blog post, that I should
mention now. We ran a contest (prior to the survey) that required contestants
to submit their body measurements. We wanted shoppers to see the power of
submitting their measurements. We threw quite a bit of money and traffic and
the contest and we saw almost no engagment. My thinking was, if we can't get
shoppers to submit their measurements for a chance to win a free high end
fashion design, we might have a problem (let's do a survey!)

As @lmm suggested the demographic for high fashion is mostly women. Also, we
struggled to find high end men's fashion designers interested in our offering.

@ericabiz - We played around with the language on our site, however,
admittedly, I'm not a marketer, so there was definitely room for improvement
here. Which is why I've signed up for CoFoundersLab
(<http://www.cofounderslab.com>) so I can find a compatible partner before
jumping into my next start up.

~~~
dizzystar
Yuck. Without a doubt, the biggest failures in my marketing career started
with "let's give them a free..."

Gaining market share or customers via free X promos is a doomed strategy. I
have my theories, but the main thrust is some mumbo jumbo about perceived
value. I've sat in interviews with more than one company that said with a not-
ironic face that suffering now will cause explosive results in the long term.
I pipe up and explain why this isn't so. Why I offer this advice for free is
beyond me.

~~~
fludlight
I recall reading an article about a pair of grad students who realized that
there was a correlation between price and perceived value. IIRC they were
researching condom use in the third world and figured out that the locals
would use condoms purchased at stores, but would discard condoms passed out
for free by NGOs. So the grad students started their own NGO that uses "cool"
Trojan/Durex-style marketing to sell condoms dirt cheap.

I can't find the article, but it may be this group:

[http://www.law.harvard.edu/news/bulletin/2005/summer/classno...](http://www.law.harvard.edu/news/bulletin/2005/summer/classnotes_02.php)

Also see:

[http://www.fordham.edu/images/undergraduate/economics/facult...](http://www.fordham.edu/images/undergraduate/economics/faculty/brent/condoms.pdf)

From page 4:

 _Obviously, the whole point of providing condoms is that they be used for
sexual activities...They are not meant to be used, for example, for water
storage. However, if they are free, then there are a large number of possible
uses for condoms that generate positive utility even though the benefits do
not cover the costs and they do nothing to prevent the spread of HIV. For
example, Epstein (2007, p271) reports that when the CSM run by PSI in Zimbabwe
tried to distribute free female condoms, the officials found that people were
removing the plastic rings and selling them as jewelry._

------
larrys
"I found this out by spending $100"

"The target audience for Rewire Attire, the high end fashion marketplace, was
women with enough money to afford high end fashion and that are young enough"

Not so fast. Forgetting even the small sample size and methodology I'm
wondering whether the OP did any other research at all? And "sharing
measurements" is only 1 factor in making this business a success.

Additionally no reason that they couldn't have forked/morphed/pivoted the
model built to some other group (say the men who buy custom made suits for
thousands - not saying that would or would not work but even if OP is correct
about the market info (and I don't think enough research was done to prove out
the point anyway) it could work in another group.)

------
btilly
Surveys may be getting at the wrong question.

As <http://paulgraham.com/startupideas.html> says, you want to work on an idea
that a few people _really_ want. Then you want to go out and find some of
those people. Talk to them. And make what they want.

Concrete case in point. I remember reading an example of how an early focus
group mostly panned a particular automobile, but 1/3 of people REALLY LOVED
IT. On a survey it would have looked bad, but went on to be one of the most
successful vehicles on the road. (I think it might have been the Ford Bronco,
but don't quote me on that.) You don't care how many won't buy, you want
something that you can find sufficient enthusiastic customers for.

When a woman finds something perfect, she likes to tell her friends about it.
Suppose that your friend is standing in front of you in great clothing talking
about how good the clothing from ____ is, you just sent them your
measurements, browse the clothing, and they will send them to you tailored to
fit, then you're likely sold. You've got to get those women started.

To do that you've got to do like Zappos did. You've got to have a generous
return policy. Furthermore when you get returns, you need to try to get
information about why it is returned. Because one of the reasons why stuff
will get returned is fit, and the descriptions you get back are going to help
you learn more about how to customize clothing to that women to give her a
better fit next time. This is essential.

There is a lot to learn to make this work. And if you want it to work, it is
absolutely necessary that you've got to get it right before trying to get
popular.

~~~
SonicSoul
that's a good point. there are plenty of successful niche market businesses.
sometimes 5% of market share is all you need. It stands to reason that the
more niche your audience, the more important marketing becomes.

------
swamp40
It looks to me like out of 899 responses, only THREE were from the $100K-149K
female target.

Two of them said NO, and one said YES, making the results 66% negative and 33%
positive.

Just not enough "on target" data to surmise anything.

------
film42
I believe we all make this mistake, event outside of startups. Think way back
to middle school when you had a crush on that girl or guy and everything
seemed perfect, and you were in love, but they didn't know it yet. All the
signs were pointing to, Go for it! But you still waited months and months
developing in your mind a perfect moment where you would ask them out, and
they would say, "Yes!! I've been waiting for you to ask me forever!!" Then,
you finally get enough courage to ask the question, just to get shut down.

A 10% positive response is often enough to ignore the other 90%. It's
something we're all working on.

------
nathan_long
>> The pitch was to get away from inaccurate generic sizing terms like
“small”, “medium” and “large” and move to a system based on body measurements.

I'm a man and possibly missing something, but it seems to me that women's
clothing is _deliberately_ inaccurate.

When I buy pants (in America), the measurements are expressed in inches. I
rarely even try them on.

Women's sizes vary by brand and seem engineered to flatter rather than
describe. A woman buying a "size 0" has not expressed her desire for a
predictable, sensible sizing system.

~~~
natesm
You should, there's lots of vanity sizing nonsense going on. For example, a
3sixteen ST-100x in size 30 is actually a 31 inch waist, and it will stretch
about another inch!

[http://www.3sixteen.com/collections/homepage/products/st100x...](http://www.3sixteen.com/collections/homepage/products/st100x-slim-
leg-raw-indigo-denim)

------
thedz
It should be noted that while the screenshot shows only 17 responses, the
_actual_ survey* has 899 responses. Looks like only 17 responses fit the
filters on the sample set.

[http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=b...](http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=bzmnn6ltiujd6&question=1)

~~~
reverend_gonzo
He filtered on Female and 25-34, while comparing on income. That shows the
same chart as his screenshot.

However, that tendency holds at higher age groups which do have more data. I
noticed the charts also have what I believe are standard deviation bars, which
show that the results are not even close to being statistically significant.

------
bryanlarsen
I wonder if the age filter was too low. Older women are more likely to be
affluent, and to be more comfortable sharing their body size. Women over the
age of 35 buy lots of stuff online, at least the ones I know...

------
kailuowang
Quite an intriguing article. Just wanna add that the opportunity cost of 1
year is way more than 40 grand. Back to biz school 101, market research is
always step 1.

------
Aardwolf
Why would it only be for women? I live in Europe and would love to get some
thinkgeek tshirts. The shipping cost is high however, so I'd order multiple at
once, but I have no clue whether "small" or "medium" will fit me better. So I
don't risk ordering them, or they could all be the wrong size. I'm male by the
way.

~~~
lmm
He was deliberately targeting the high end, designer stuff; the demographic
buying >$500 clothes is overwhelmingly female.

~~~
Aardwolf
Ah, I see. True that :)

------
incision
>"high end apparel/fashion" x 4

Everbody wants clothes that fit.

I don't know the first thing about fashion, and my wardrobe is anything but
high-end.

However, I'm well-paid and ready to be a lifetime customer for anyone who can
sell me slacks that simultaneously fit a >36" inseam, <38" waist and thighs
which are no stranger to squats.

------
ansible
This is good advice in general, but the trick is knowing what questions to
ask. To knowing which of your (many, many) assumptions might just be wrong.

Humans are strange beasts. There are so many seemingly simple things we could
do that would vastly improve our lives, yet we refuse to do them.

------
calinet6
The data is interesting, but maybe incomplete. Doesn't look like you have
quite enough information to truly understand the market.

Apologies for name-dropping a colleague's project, but you might want to look
at <http://validate.io> for a more comprehensive, scientific analysis that's
actually done by someone who knows how to design surveys and analyze data
(they have a PhD design and run a survey for you, it's pretty sweet). A little
more than $100 but worth it to have good data on your market. You might still
avoid wasting $40k going the wrong direction, but you might be able to trust
it more.

------
omegant
Did he tried with men?. I defenitely would give my measures to be able to buy
clothing online, tshirts, hoodies, pants, even caps. I don't buy online right
now unless is a bramd I already know and I go directly for my size. Is

~~~
ig1
If you click on the google survey results image he links to the results where
you can look at the male segment as well.

~~~
omegant
Thank you. Any way I was meaning if he did pivot to men apparel, sports
tshirts, etc...

------
overgryphon
The OP is way overestimating the importance of body measurements and is
targeting the wrong demographic.

1\. What looks flattering varies drastically from one woman to the next, and
the determining factor of what looks good on you isn't body measurements. It's
body shape. Designers tend to target a specific body type, and women who shop
for designer clothing need to identify which type they are. This is where
style is hard, and where women could use help.

2\. Body measurements help determine type, but it's not that straight forward.
Petite women with have smaller differences in measurements to indicate type.
Shape of certain body features (especially bust) isn't fully indicated by
measurements.

3\. Type is important not for fit but to determine what styles you should
wear. If a user's measurements indicate narrow shoulders, you should not be
displaying halter tops, even if the bust, waist and hips sizes are correct.

4\. Women with enough money to buy designer clothes and care about fit also
have enough money to pay a tailor. They are much more concerned about style
and quality, and will pay someone else to make it fit them.

Mr. Borden, if you're still interested in the idea I have a few suggestions
for your next iteration. Target women with enough money for nice clothes, but
don't know how to shop for them.

Use either body measurements or some sort of questionnaire to determine a few
important body characteristics- type, bust-size, petite, plus, tall, broad
shoulders, ect- you could even ask what part of their body they like
most/don't like. Market your platform to women as a way to discover their own
personal style, to feel more confident in the body they have (self-image is a
huge source of shame for many women). Hire some personal shoppers to help
write blog posts on style, body type, confidence.

Then display clothing based on what would look good on that woman. Not size,
style. So if she has a large bust, don't display turtlenecks. This is where
you provide value.

You could take this a lot further- a user clicks on a top, show pictures of
skirts or belts or shoes that would go with it, or even generate outfits that
will flatter her.

Search is another way to provide value here. It would be awesome to say, I
want to look at dresses with this or that neckline, or shirts that match this
color.

------
realdlee
Surveys have their place, but I'm a little surprised that a student of Steve
Blank/Eric Ries' teachings wouldn't be "getting out of the building" and
talking to people.

~~~
mortenjorck
Indeed. Surveys can help you frame what you're looking for, but you _need_ to
talk to real people and get a bit more of an understanding of _why_ they feel
the way they do.

~~~
GFischer
Sometimes it's tough, and a survey is a poor but doable substitute - I don't
know how I would go about interviewing women in the +100k earnings range, and
for one of my projects I did a survey because the potential customers were
geographically far away.

However, I'd never have invested so much before knowing the audience.

And he had this HUGE problem of having invested his ego on a (probably very
cool) solution, which is one of the toughest challenges for us tech types.

------
mxfh
Fun fact: Women seem to be more willing to share their body measures than men:

[http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=b...](http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=bzmnn6ltiujd6&question=1&filter=gen%3AMale)

[http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=b...](http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=bzmnn6ltiujd6&question=1&filter=gen%3AFemale)

n about 450 each

~~~
chc
I'd wager that women are more likely to confidently know their measurements
than men.

------
AJ007
Any user who upvoted this story should lose all of their karma. A grade
schooler could point out what is wrong and horrifically unscientific about
this blog post.

------
hownottowrite
The margins in high-end apparel are so high that it would be better to send
three sizes rather than magically select the right one. It's also a better
customer experience as the consumer gets a chance to try on merchandise that
feel their way to the right choice for their particular body. It also appeals
to affluent buyers because they feel the merchant is catering to them in a way
that is common in an in-store experience.

------
rdl
This is why I wouldn't want to build a product where I'm not the target
audience. You don't see me doing women's fashion startups, or tampon
subscription as a service, or child/teen games, or whatever.

It's a problem because ~no 3 year old is an iOS developer, and most developers
are 15-40 year old men, so it's less likely you'll find good products for 3
year olds vs. developer tools, but it does avoid this particular problem.

~~~
crgt
FWIW, some developers do have young kids. I make software for mine.

------
mipapage
I this not just knowing your market?

I had a friend drop $20,000 on a new supplement and training business, built
out an app for trainers the way he saw thought it should be, and recruited
trainers. Lots. Showed them the app, and got a lot of feedback, but by then it
was too late. He was out of money and no dev wanted a piece of the pie.

He should have done his market research first. The OP too, no?

------
filopodium
<http://fits.me/>

These people are trying to solve this problem. They have also taken a very
interesting route and built a robotic mannequin which can change it's shape.

In any case I don't think I will ever be able to give a better overview than
the site itself.

------
PaulHoule
It's funny.

If you want to look better than average, the first thing to pay attention to
is how your clothes fit.

------
peripetylabs
It is not possible to infer anything from such a low sample population (45).
For statistically significant results, you would need to spend on the order of
$1,000 not $100.

------
markdown
> I dropped over 40 grand

Pick it up and be more careful next time.

------
bkorte
But really, the best line from Good Will Hunting is the "how about them
apples" line. <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmRe_fK7pbw>

~~~
timborden
So many good lines....and I agree, that is the best

