
How Harley-Davidson's All-In Bet on Its Past Crippled Its Future - kqr2
https://jalopnik.com/how-harley-davidsons-all-in-bet-on-its-past-crippled-it-1830332227
======
jdhn
Two points that I wish that they would've touched on more in the article is
the general downturn in motorcycle sales in the US, as well as the huge used
market.

To the first point, motorcycle sales in the US never really recovered from the
recession, and it doesn't seem like they're coming back anytime soon. Is this
because new motorcycles (regardless of brand) cost more than they used to, a
lack of disposable income among the target audience, or failure of motorcycle
manufactures to branch out to new audiences? I don't have the answers to these
questions, but I think that they all play a role into the sales decline.

Secondly (and more specific to Harley), the used motorcycle market is HUGE. Go
on Craigslist and look at the motorcycles that are on sale. Near me, it seems
that every 3rd or 4th bike is a Harley. When the used market is so large and
the models don't change that much from year to year, why would you buy new
when you could pick up a slightly used bike and save 10% to 20% off of the
sticker price?

~~~
gambler
_> Secondly (and more specific to Harley), the used motorcycle market is HUGE.
_

Kind of sucks if this is really hurting the company.

Companies that design things that last should be somehow rewarded. This is
important and needs to be figured out. Otherwise we will drown in garbage that
self-destructs after warranty expiration or things that are deliberately un-
repairable.

Planned obsolescence is not as "smart" as some people make it out to be. It
wastes natural resources, contributes to pollution, makes things less reliable
and removes incentives to produce real innovation in the future.

Edit:

There is another post here that points out that Harleys might not be
particularly reliable:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18450005](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18450005)

Definitely worth reading. I wonder how a motorcycle can be unreliable _and_
have a large second-hand market at the same time. Are they highly modular? Can
you easily build one working motorcycle out of two broken ones?

~~~
michaelbuckbee
Not really disagreeing with your larger point, but in this specific instance
it's less "designed to last" and more "not actually used".

The article points out how owners are getting older, having more health
issues, etc. and that the bikes aren't actually used for anything but fun
rides on the weekends.

Harley Davidson is an incredibly powerful brand, but it's not a brand built
off of ultra reliability and the creation of long lasting vehicles.

~~~
mcguire
The brand is for a particular style; all of their attempts to expand out of
that niche have failed for various reasons, especially resistance from their
core audience.

------
wambotron
I bought my first bike here earlier this year aged 35. I took the MSF course
at a Harley dealer and talked a bit about what bike might fit me best for
riding as a casual/weekend rider (up to maybe 5k miles per year if I ride a
lot). No one really recommended a Harley. I got a couple Indian recs, but
mostly it was Yamaha and Honda. I ended up with a 2017 Honda Shadow Phantom
after sitting on it for a while in the show room of the Honda dealer and I'm
quite happy with it.

Harley absolutely feels like a fashion thing to me. I know a few folks who
really like them, but it doesn't seem to be based on anything other than
"they're Harleys, man." I don't think the Harley brand is going to die off,
but it does feel a bit pigeonholed right now as the rough and tumble, leather
& dome helmets type of rider right now. Honda doesn't feel like any particular
type of bike. I don't feel like I should be wearing anything in particular on
it, and I haven't had anyone look at me oddly for riding a matte black cruiser
with a high-vis helmet yet. I feel like I would've if I were on a Harley.

------
nimbius
Speaking as an engine mechanic, and avid motorcycle rider, Harley has burned a
lot of bridges. This island they stand on now is their own doing.

At some point they killed themselves with the myopic nature of metrics.
understanding the average rider age of a harley led them to start investing in
motor homes and golf carts assuming the market was going to vanish underneath
them. At the same time, the Milwaukee managers froze the plant in time out of
sheer terror that any change would drive away their customers. in the 80's the
"engine sound" patent was recognized which only nailed Harleys other foot to
the floor.

Harley still ran on a chain primary drive by 2007...the last car that ran on
this was the Packard in 1930. The only innovation that came to this was
plastic guide shoes to replace the old metal ones out of a cost saving effort
that basically empowered the transmission to kill the bike after 20,000 miles.

Management went completely deaf. in 2001 the death wobble for Dyna's sold to
the california highway patrol was ignored _twice_ by the company, and once
proven by CHP riders on a closed course, the company begrudgingly issued a
parts fix but no recall, and no replacement. Harley in 2010 still had single
crankpin, inlay type piston rod engine made largely from pot steel iron that
pushed 650lbs in their smallest sportster motorcycles. They were failing a
plurality of foreign emissions controls for both noise _and_ air quality but
didnt seem to care. 33 years ago most managers remembered the tariff they
lobbied government for, and how it saved harley. They expected another one.

comparatively they were getting crushed by better bikes. Japan had double
crankpin, liquid cooled, fuel injected, balanced and computerized engines that
outlasted harley davidson by hundreds of thousands of miles and ran on low
maintenance solutions like belt drive and shaft drive that didnt need service
for 100,000 miles. Even japans air cooled monsters like the Yamaha Raider
1900cc in 2006 could idle comfortably in 100 degree summer heat...something
Harleys largest models that were still 300cc's smaller could not achieve
without shutting down a cylinder and entering "parade mode"

Harleys v-rod, their only new design, came from Porsche, and their new exhaust
came from a consortium of other motorcycle manufacturers who offered options
and techniques for compliance. They desperately want to get out of the
manufacturing business and into the 'branding' business. Sure, the milwaukee 8
is a nice new engine, but at 40-50 grand for a new dyna glide, harley still
misses the point.

Gone are the boomers that will drop that kind of money. I'll go for a Honda
Goldwing which is not only more powerful, but more reliable and cheaper, than
a new bagger.

Harley arguably isnt a motorcycle company at all, its desperately trying to
just be a household brand. Better US motorcycle companies like Victory and
indian (polaris) exist with modern double overhead cam design, liquid cooling
and keyless start to name a few features, but victory learned the hard way
what it means to go toe to toe with a brand that exists as a living
anachronism.

~~~
jseliger
An interesting set of points. It seems HD is still missing the boat:

 _And Harley’s response—an electric bike called the LiveWire set to debut next
year—isn’t so much of a Hail Mary as it is a capitulation. It also won’t be
nearly enough._

Zero Motorcylces: www.zeromotorcycles.com is shipping electric bikes right now
and has ten, or almost ten, years of experience actually doing so. What's HD
going to add to that besides branding?

~~~
wlesieutre
Maybe theirs can make louder noises. As far as I can tell that's the main
selling point.

~~~
CathyWest
Great, then we'll have to listen to inverter whine all summer when the next
generation hits their midlife crisis.

~~~
mcguire
Wouldn't that be similar to the sewing machine noise ofa BMW K-bike? :-)

------
bartread
I like the cruiser riding style, and the aesthetic of at least some of the
bikes. It can be very comfortable for long distances (I rode 1200 miles in NZ
on a HD Road King), but I expect that style to be married to some substance.
I'd like a bike that:

\- Doesn't weigh more than the moon

\- Can do 0-60 in 2.5 seconds or so

\- Has a top speed >150mph

\- Has fuel economy >40mpg (imperial)

\- Has decent wind protection

\- Hard, capacious luggage (both panniers and topbox)

\- New OTR cost of £15-20k, ideally at the lower end of that range

The fundamental problem with Harley Davidson is they're all show and no go.
All that sound and thunder sadly amounts to very little.

Triumph and Moto Guzzi do better, and the latter have embraced a more
modern/futuristic aesthetic (as with the Suzuki M109R BOSS), but for almost
all cruisers (Rocket 3 aside) power disappointingly tops out at around 100
+/\- 20 bhp.

Yes, that's right: I'm saying I want it _all_ , and I'm making no apology
whatsoever for that. I want the riding style and looks of a cruiser (or
futuristic cruiser), married to the light weight and performance of a sports
or hyperbike (ZZR1400 weighs in at a "mere" 270kg or so).

Motorcycle companies: I know you can do this so please stop faffing around and
get on with it.

~~~
VBprogrammer
I think mostly the problem you've got there is that people looking for most of
those things would go out and buy a BMW 1200GS. Ok, it's not a cruiser but
it's just about as comfortable to sit on. All the luggage options and wind
protection you could ask for and well ridden can keep up with most sports
bikes in the real world.

There are some bikes which get close to your brief; you mentioned the Rocket
III but if you're willing to compromise on what a cruiser would look like
you've also get the Ducati Diavel. I'm not sure how much more room there is in
this segment.

I think in some ways that's probably part of the problem Harley Davidson. New
genres of motorcycles have come an gone without them making any attempt at
competing with them.

~~~
merolish
Was going to say GS (RIP my G 650 GS) but you beat me to it. If I get another
bike it'll be a bigger GS, V-Strom, etc. They're fantastic machines.

------
pmontra
I'm under the impression that Harley customers (and customers of similar bikes
of other brands) like noise and acceleration. An ebike has acceleration but by
definition is quiet. I like speed and acceleration and I hate loud noise (one
of the few that like modern Formula 1 hybrids.) I could buy an ebike but I'm
not a biker. Would Harley be able to convert its customers to the new paradigm
or should it rebuild a totally different customer base?

A Harley owner once told me that he'll never buy a silent electric bike. He
was also worried about people not noticing a silent bike coming and crossing
the road at the wrong moment.

~~~
mcguire
Short, easy answer: Nope. They've tried before.

(Argh. "Loud pipes save lives." Gah.)

------
debacle
This article is romancing a company that has had consistent quality issues in
the last few decades, sold its image out to WalMart in the 2000s, and doesn't
appeal to modern riders.

------
noir_lord
I'm not a boomer (38) and would still like a motorcycle now that I have the
time and money to enjoy it but a Harley doesn't appeal at all (I'm English),
they really haven't moved with the times, if I was going to get anything it
would be something like an early 80's CB750 as when I was a kid they where the
'cool' bikes and I'd likely kill myself on anything more modern in short
order.

~~~
dugditches
Not necessarily true.

1\. As 'more modern' bikes are lighter, have better brakes,
suspension/handling and most importantly ABS.

2\. Harley can't move on with the times. They did with their 'V-Rod' featuring
a 'modern' liquid cooled engine designed by Porsche. They discontinued it this
year. Harley riders want the old Harley image.

They're trying to pivot into new markets as their customer base is becoming
too old to ride or simply dying off. [https://www.harley-
davidson.com/us/en/motorcycles/future-veh...](https://www.harley-
davidson.com/us/en/motorcycles/future-vehicles/pan-america.html)

~~~
VBprogrammer
Anyone who says they think they might kill themselves on a certain type of
bike shouldn't be allowed near any type of bike.

They are incredible fun but unquestionably dangerous.

~~~
maxxxxx
" Anyone who says they think they might kill themselves on a certain type of
bike shouldn't be allowed near any type of bike."

Or maybe they are self aware. Realistically only a very small share of the
people who are riding a 100+hp bike can really handle that power.

~~~
VBprogrammer
My motorcycle has 70hp. I can tell you that on the average ride I rarely use
half of that. I don't think that'd be any different if my bike had 170hp.
Realistically on the road you can't use that kind of power unless you are just
trying to lose your licence on an empty motorway (although it's still fun to
have it).

------
Jedi72
As someone who loves Japanese supersport bikes, I wonder if in 40 years I will
be the dying breed of people who just want to cling to old glories on a 600cc
petrol engine thats about 50x more bike than I'll ever be able to handle :,)

Ride on, old dudes.

------
eweise
I rode 10,000 miles all over the US one summer on a harley 883 sportster.
Loved it and the bike ran great. I actually like the lack of technology on the
bikes because they are easy to fix.

------
squozzer
Not a rider, but HD's story sounds very similar to Gibson's and Fender's -
whose past is going extinct but having difficulty moving or even figuring out
their future.

~~~
wambotron
I don't think these match up very well. While Gibson's most iconic guitar is
the LP and Fender's is the Strat, they still make a bunch of different guitars
that are NOT expensive, but play great. This is moreso true of Fender, who
makes amazing guitars in the $500-750 range. They also don't come with any
particular image associated with them. Strats have been used for all sorts of
music, from Iron Maiden to John Mayer.

Gibson feels a bit more stuck to an image, but it doesn't feel old and crusty
the way Harley does.

------
mcguire
Weird, they don't mention the recently cancelled V-Rod.

------
purple_ducks
To me, Harleys and their equivalently ignorantly noisy UK cousin(Triumphs)
should be legislated out of existence in their current form.

It's the equivalent of a child banging a drum for attention.

------
thecrumb
Buell(er)?

~~~
Aloha
Yeah, HD didnt really understand the Buell brand when they bought them, and
eventually killed the product in the process.

------
claydavisss
No "faiulure" here...HD has lasted far longer than the average corporation and
created an iconic product that still has hardcore devotees.

The electric bike will sell poorly and HD will retreat back into its market
for obnoxious hogs. One day when that market goes away, they can sell the
brand to some Chinese billionaire and call it a day.

Any company that operates profitably for a generation is a success in my book
regardless of how it ends.

~~~
aklemm
Brutal, but sounds about right.

