
Coronavirus: How scared should we be? - mrfusion
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52758024
======
nate_meurer
At this point it's clear that the most dangerous aspect of this disease is the
risk of overwhelmed healthcare systems, which makes every one of us part of
the "vulnerable population" regardless of our current physical conditions.

When (or if) our healthcare systems adjust to this threat enough to be
reasonably robust in the face of outbreaks, and to no longer be centers of
infection, then lockdowns and strict distancing measures can no longer be
justified simply to _save lives_. Nobody genuinely disagrees with this, and
the reason you know this is that nobody is advocating for lockdowns and strict
distancing to save lives from other widespread infectious diseases. In other
words, lockdowns and strict distancing would undoubtedly save millions of
lives every year from the multitude of infectious diseases we already live
with, but nobody serious has ever suggested we sacrifice our economy to fight
them in this way.

~~~
makomk
It is indeed difficult to justify locking down indefinitely to save lives if
you compare this to how we treat other infectious diseases, which is why the
idea that it's monstrous to sacrifice even a single life in the name of saving
the economy tends to go hand in hand with the belief that this must not be
compared to any other infectious disease or cause of death.

------
mrfusion
I thought this quote was interesting:

“What is remarkable about coronavirus is that if we are infected our chances
of dying seems to mirror our chance of dying anyway over the next year,
certainly once we pass the age of 20.”

~~~
pmorici
I'm uncertain that is a reasonable statistical comparison. Seems like they are
trying to use that to say it isn't a big deal but doesn't that mean that it
doubles your risk of dying in a given year? It also doesn't include risk of
serious long term complications.

~~~
iguy
We're uncertain about the death rate by at least a factor of 2 anyway. This
"about one year" comparison corresponds to an estimate around one percent.
Whether you think it's a big deal or not, it seems like a useful way to
picture the numbers.

And it's interesting that the age profile follows relatively well. This was
not true (for instance) for the 1918 influenza, which had higher fatality
among young adults.

------
pjc50
No mention of the potential long term effects or long recovery time?

Certain groups seem to have unexpectedly high death rates:
[https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-
london-52752022](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52752022)

So the situation seems very much to depend on the risk of infection you face
in day to day life. If that can be controlled, you're OK.

If only we had a working tracing program.

~~~
verdverm
It's essentially illegal or would be ineffective in the States. Can't gather
the necessary detailed gps data (illegal) and enough people will not opt in
that you can't catch all super spreaders, and individual actions (like
crossing the street because you saw something) matrer

~~~
pjc50
It would easily be perfectly legal in the UK, we've just done it badly.

(Not just about apps: plenty of countries have done a pencil and paper job,
which is significantly better than nothing)

~~~
verdverm
It's mostly illegal there, most govts are figuring out what to do next time,
as this ship has sailed

------
cybwraith
Its understandable since this is BBC, but it also ignores the dramatic
financial impact being hospitalized for COVID19 can have on the average family
in the US. It could be 0.0001% fatality regardless of demographic, and people
in the US should still be very cautious if the hospitalization rate stays the
same.

How many can afford to miss 3 weeks of work while recovering, let alone the
bills afterwards or long-term health impacts. Will survivors end up needing
expensive prescriptions or frequent doctor visits to maintain a normal quality
of life post COVID19?

If the US really wants to 'restart' the economy and have things kicking,
government-guaranteed health coverage (at minimum for COVID-related issues)
should be priority #1.

~~~
lumberingjack
They did that with Obamacare we have Obamacare

~~~
cybwraith
Most people have to pay for ACA plans out of pocket, and those plans still
have massive coinsurance. 20-30% typically, which when your total hospital
bill is $50k-100k, still adds up to enough to wreck most US family finances.

------
giardini
Good article! Answer: not very scared!

I'm surprised to hear people hyperventilating in fear while speaking of
returning to the gym, school, or work. The press has a lot of fools whipped up
into a frenzy with this virus.

Granted it is _very_ contagious, but there are still _very_ few cases relative
to the population. And it kills so rarely!

Over a period of 4 weeks I have periodically and anecdotally polled all
friends by asking the questions:

1\. Have you or anyone you directly know caught Covid-19?

2\. Have you, or anyone you know, _heard indirectly_ (i.e., someone told you)
of someone they knew who had Covid-19?

For me, the answer to 1 was "One person": an in-law who was in longterm care
in a Hong Kong hospital and died of Covid-19.

For me, the answer to 2 was still "One person".

When I extended the questioning to _all acquaintances_ the answer to 3 was
"Six persons": the in-law and what a clerk described as "five men I know who
are workers from South America." I asked him how the five dealt with the
ailment and he said "They worked through it; they're young and strong and they
need the jobs!"

If you told me to find a Covid-19 patient I would be hard pressed to do so w/o
visiting a local hospital or funeral home. Even then I doubt they would have
one on hand.

~~~
lma22
>Granted it is very contagious, but there are still very few cases relative to
the population.

There's entire nations on lock down to stop the spread. Without such an order,
you'd have much more than "very few cases". You said it, COVID-19 is "very
contagious".

>And it kills so rarely!

If it spreads, there's less medical equipment, space, and personnel to help
fight. This will increase the death rate. You can look at NY and Italy as an
example. Not to mention, people are not statistics. If you mom dies, it
doesn't comfort you that the mortality rate is so low. You want to keep mom
safe.

>When I extended the questioning to all acquaintances

What's n? Is it statistically relevant? Where do you live?

>If you told me to find a Covid-19 patient I would be hard pressed to do so
w/o visiting a local hospital or funeral home. Even then I doubt they would
have one on hand.

What is even the point of this statement? Illness can be a danger to society
without _you_ knowing where to "find" a patient.

~~~
giardini
The point of my post was precisely what I said in the first line of that post:

"Good article! Answer: not very scared!"

To elaborate: people are panicking unduly and they need to quit being scared,
they need to calm down, they need to relax and go about their day w/o being on
edge every minute. I'm not saying that people should not take precautions: I'm
saying that, once you take precautions, there isn't much else one _can_ do
that will make one safer than to relax and enjoy the ride as best one can. So,
for example, I read, exercise, eat right and live a somewhat normal life.

The point of my last statement was _emphasis_ : I was emphasizing how uncommon
Covid-19 is and, in particular, how rare Covid-19 deaths are.

The topic or thought of death is what seems to trigger panic in most people
about Covid-19. Mention of the reality of Covid-19 is like waving a magic
amulet: all I need do is utter "A Covid-19 death..." in a meeting and half the
participants appear to void their bowels and the other half begin to make
attempts to exit the room. Everybody needs to calm down and focus.

~~~
lma22
You have no point.

Entire nations are on forced quarantine. That is slowing the spread (and
deaths) of COVID-19 significantly. Without the quarantine, hospitals will be
filled, leaving many who would otherwise live (with treatment) to die.

There are hundreds of thousands of at-risk individuals where COVID-19 is a
deadly threat. No amount of "chilling out" or "exercise" will make that not
true. To this, quarantine _is_ the precaution you speak about.

US states that have started to re-open are seeing surges in infection rates.
Browse Google News to learn more.

Please do the bare minimum to be educated before throwing about your childish
ramblings that can lead to deaths.

~~~
giardini
With a few exceptions, hospitals in the USA were never filled and their ICUs
were never filled. We built extra facilities that are now being dismantled:

"Houston Looking at Dismantling $17M Temp Hospital That Didn't See a Single
Patient":

[https://www.westernjournal.com/houston-looking-
dismantling-1...](https://www.westernjournal.com/houston-looking-
dismantling-17m-temp-hospital-didnt-see-single-patient/)

Meanwhile patients who should have gone to the hospital for conditions other
than Covid-19 are sitting at home dying instead. The hospitals are mostly
empty and are losing money b/c of Covid-19 panic.

Quarantine is primarily for the susceptible or the sick. To extend quarantine
to everyone has proven too costly IMO.

Re-opening states are seing increases, NOT _surges_.

"Please do bare minimum to be educated before throwing about your childish
ramblings that can lead to death."

Please complete education in English language before posting to most honorable
ycombinator website using childish Eastern-language-style grammar that can
lead to boredom by most respected readers!8-))

------
pmorici
I really dislike the way the discussion around this has been framed. It seems
to have centered around two polar extremes. On on end you have the idea that
we should stay in "lockdown" until there is a cure or vaccine. On the other
end you've got the "it's just the flu" crowd who doesn't want any public life
restrictions while also nay saying zero cost things like masks that greatly
reduce risk.

Neither of those positions seems reasonable. Where are the reasonable leaders
that recognize that it isn't practical to to have a "lockdown" waiting for a
vaccine that is going to take a year in the most optimistic case while at the
same time recognizing that promoting small inexpensive behavior changes that
keep this in check and reduce risk while that plays out is the way to prevent
the need for more draconian measures.

I also think the idea that taking any precaution even minor some how means you
are "afraid". Total nonsense.

~~~
ghthor
Masks are not zero cost, they are emotionally and physically taxing. I not
wearing a mask if I'm not sick.

~~~
DoreenMichele
Masks are nasty and I hate them. Most people using them have no idea how to
use them and seem to think wearing a mask is sort of like wearing your +2 Item
Of Immunity from The Game Of Covid19 and you don't need to do anything
differently. They just _magically_ help, no matter how much stupid stuff you
do.

My son said he saw someone wiping down a shopping cart with a wipe. It fell on
the floor and and they picked it back up and kept wiping down the cart with
it.

This is not unlike how many people relate to their masks.

~~~
pmorici
"It fell on the floor and and they picked it back up and kept wiping down the
cart with it."

Why do you think this a problem? If it is a disinfectant wipe it doesn't
matter it just made the floor a little cleaner.

