
Just 7.3% of Stockholm’s inhabitants developed Covid-19 antibodies by April 30 - bookofjoe
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/maj/forsta-resultaten-fran-pagaende-undersokning-av-antikroppar-for-covid-19-virus/
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bookofjoe
>However, the public health agency had previously said it expected about 25%
to have been infected by 1 May

[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/just-7-per-
cen...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/just-7-per-cent-of-
stockholm-had-covid-19-antibodies-by-end-of-april-study-sweden-coronavirus)

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ksaj
I keep seeing completely contradictory information on this. Just a few days
ago I saw that they were on track and expecting to reach herd immunity some
time in June. Then I read there is doubt, and it would take a month or so
longer. And now, they are nowhere near that goal.

It is easy to understand why there is so much frustration in the world over
this pandemic. For my household, we're going to continue to err on the side of
caution.

~~~
thu2111
It's because new cases peaked at the end of April for Sweden, so the
population is probably already most of the way towards herd immunity.

How is that possible? Two main theories are being explored:

1\. The population didn't start out 100% susceptible like the models assume.
Some large fraction of people may have pre-existing immunity from prior
coronavirus infections.

2\. The population is non-homogeneous. The models assume everyone is equally
virulent and equally susceptible. If that assumption is changed and the models
re-run, they show the epidemic taps out at about 15-20% infected.

[https://www.nicholaslewis.org/why-herd-immunity-to-
covid-19-...](https://www.nicholaslewis.org/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-
reached-much-earlier-than-thought/)

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gerland
Just a notice - there is a "in English" button in the top-right corner.

