
Predicting Starman’s Return to Earth - rbanffy
https://hackaday.com/2018/02/19/predicting-starmans-return-to-earth/
======
erikrothoff
Feels like the probability of getting grabbed by a space pirate within the
next hundred years should be fairly high. Or maybe a space archeologist, just
like modern day archeologists digging up graves intended as vessels for the
eternal afterlife.

~~~
tardo99
If there was a way to collect on it, I'd bet good money there won't be space
pirates in the next hundred years. Without some sort of fundamental (and I do
mean fundamental) advance in propulsion technology, the notion of humans being
a multi-planetary species is a joke.

~~~
thaumaturgy
Today, we have this:
[http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_CEZblkf9NKw/TN_LssuYPHI/AAAAAAAAAB...](http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_CEZblkf9NKw/TN_LssuYPHI/AAAAAAAAABw/OOWfw4Vn8sg/s1600/a380.jpg)
[Airbus A380]

100 years ago, we had this:
[http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2u1lGwe_Jf8/TwW1lxbBrtI/AAAAAAAAJ7...](http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2u1lGwe_Jf8/TwW1lxbBrtI/AAAAAAAAJ7A/Zszdy8dn1LA/s1600/Ford-
Model-T-1.jpg) [Ford Model T]

100 years before that, was:
[http://animalpetdoctor.homestead.com/1800horsebuggy.jpg](http://animalpetdoctor.homestead.com/1800horsebuggy.jpg)
[1800s horse and buggy]

100 years before that, was:
[https://i.pinimg.com/236x/b5/46/5b/b5465bb591ec882f187d5b3d8...](https://i.pinimg.com/236x/b5/46/5b/b5465bb591ec882f187d5b3d8fd8c83e.jpg)
[horse]

100 years before that, was: [horse]

100 years before that, was: [also horse]

etc.

100 years seems like a very long time to humans, but each century has seen
continued exponential progress in transportation technology. Where you see a
joke, I see a certainty -- barring of course some unforeseen massive
catastrophe.

~~~
jhbadger
The whole point of post 1970s technology is that despite all the predictions
of flying cars, jetpacks, vacations on Mars, etc. they didn't happen.
Transportation is done. If anything, we've gone backwards -- we used to have
things like the Concorde, and now we don't. It isn't that technology has stood
still, of course, but the whole advance in communications means that the need
for transportation is reduced. Videoconferencing between New York and London
is better than a Concorde flight sending people across.

~~~
dwaltrip
> Transportation is done.

Do you actually, literally mean this? Or did you mean to say that the next big
change won't happen for a very long time?

I get your point -- it's a very good one, if said much more moderately.
Communication tech can be a replacement for transportation tech, and the next
big change in transportation tech may be quite difficult to achieve. But the
absolute statements drive me bonkers...

P.s. self driving cars may be mainstream in a few decades or less.

~~~
isostatic
Self driving vehicles make sense as the next major change, akin to the
jetliner, mass production car, steam train, and steamship.

Until something along the lines of antigravity is discovered, I can't see any
major modal change in aerospace. Fundamentally there's little different from
today's 787 or a380 than a 747 or 707. As was pointed out, you used to be able
to cross the Atlantic 3 times in a single day. The major change to open up
Europe-far east travel wasn't high speed planes, it was the opening of Russian
air space.

Aside from some modest range improvements there's little change in 50 years on
long haul travel. The only things on the horizon would be antipodal non stop
flights, but those distances tend to be uneconomic due to having to carry the
fuel. High speed trains are slightly faster than they were in 1980 but not by
an order of magnitude, things like the Shanghai maglev seem doomed to be one
off curiosities.

There's not much in today's transport world that would shock someone from 60
years ago.

------
jxub
Has anybody else read _Stallman_ at first? He is the Saviour in the church of
Emacs after all...

~~~
_sdegutis
Sorry but at this point I don’t think he’s ever going to return to earth :p

~~~
acct1771
On the contrary, he's apparently descending on a cloud as we speak - the last
five years have really ramped up "Well, shit...guess Stallman might have been
right" comments here.

------
interfixus
My money's on a SpaceX grab-it-and-land-it-on-Earth-or-Mars stunt somewhere
out in the future.

~~~
ryandrake
Or a more achievable but still impressive "Secure a second mannequin in the
passenger seat" challenge.

~~~
TomK32
One of the most sought after achievements in the Awesome-Life-App (Think now
to download the app into your Goozonpple Cortex Storage®).

------
samstave
Did the Tesla/starman have any sensors/camera/telemetry objects on board? Or
was it literally just space litter (I don’t mean that in a derogatory way, but
if it’s not reporting anything, why go to all that for a device in space that
doesn’t report anything at all(aside from a successful falcon launch))

~~~
dfcowell
The same reason they didn't put any other kind of valuable payload on the
rocket. They didn't know if it would blow up on launch or not, so didn't
invest in fitting anything. Most test launches like this (all?) just use a
steel block for the dummy payload.

~~~
samstave
I didnt realize this was the very first launch. For some reason.

------
jaclaz
As a side note, doesn't anyone else find ironic that the edge technology car
with autopilot is sent in space with the "driver" having both hands (glued) on
the steering wheel?

~~~
Casseres
It's a recognizable guesture and makes for an iconic picture. Also, perhaps
it's a message to the future that this is how things _used_ to be.

------
perseusprime11
I think it will fun to have a contest to find and bring back the starman alive
to Earth. Whichever country or whoever does it should get a major bounty.

~~~
trevyn
A...live??

~~~
TheOtherHobbes
No one said the challenge was easy.

------
walrus01
If The Expanse has taught me anything, it'll probably end up retrieved someday
by a robotic ion-propulsion craft and put on display in the corporate lobby of
Mao-Kwikowski Mercantile's Luna HQ.

------
kayall
I read it as "Predicting Stallman’s Return to Earth".

~~~
pvaldes
For a second I also had a mental image of a flying Stallman tearing his shirt
open and leaving the planet at super-speed. At least I wasn't the only one :-)

~~~
muterad_murilax
Sorry, GNU's Not a UFO.

------
platz
If this was the cold war, the Tesla would be a mirv device loaded with nukes

~~~
Piskvorrr
Hence, the Outer Space Treaty. Not a coincidence that this was signed shortly
after the Cuban missile crisis, and while Soviet and American space programs
were in full swing.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Space_Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Space_Treaty)

------
joemi
I wish HN would link to any other author's posts on hackaday other than
Benchoff. His articles are very clickbaity for a site that rarely does
clickbait, and he's frequently been openly hostile to commenters and to
readers in general. I sincerely believe HAD would be a better site without
him, and I wish his posts weren't also popping up on HN.

~~~
wanderingjew
Hey Joemi, Benchoff here. Glad to see my work is at least noticed.

To respond to your calls of clickbait, yes, I do have a habit of writing
articles that are picked up on Hacker News. I see that you have submitted a
total of zero items to HN, how about submitting a few other articles from
Hackaday (sparing myself, of course) to HN? I'm sure they'd appreciate it.

~~~
joemi
I'm not calling your HAD articles clickbaity because they get picked up by
HN... I meant they had titles that were actual clickbait, like you were
goading people into clicking out of anger because you'd say something
inflammatory or because you phrased something in a certain way so that it
sounded wrong. (And then you'd continue the goading in the articles.)

That said, I just glanced through your more recent HAD articles to offer up
some examples and they don't seem anything like that anymore, so I'll give
your stuff another shot. I guess your style's changed since a little less than
a year ago when I noticed and decided to filter out all your articles from the
RSS feed (in particular because you were telling people who offered
corrections to your articles that they're "shitting up the comments").

As to my zero submissions... I'm just not a submitter. _shrug_

