
The Amazon in Brazil is on fire – how bad is it? - allanberger
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49433767
======
hannob
This article completely fails to mention a very important issue: Scientists
are worried that the amazon may approach a tipping point after which the
ecosystem will completely collapse.

The guardian has a better take on the story:
[https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/23/amazon-f...](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/23/amazon-
fires-what-is-happening-anything-we-can-do)

~~~
sprafa
Sounds likely to me. If you mess around with any ecosystem enough it will
change unpredictably

~~~
bsaul
I hope you do realize your comment is about as rational as dark ages priests
and peasants blaming villager’s sins for the bad harvesting ( i don’t mean to
pick a personnal fight with you in particular, just that your opinion seems
very widespread even on this forum, and it worries me)

~~~
sprafa
Blah I said “sounds likely”. Is this priests said in the Middle Ages

------
b212
NASA came up with a follow up article and it seems like there's a lot of fire
in Amazon currently "making it the most active fire year in that region since
2010".

So looks like it's been worse only 9 years ago and in some stupid articles I
read that we lost 20% of Amazon in the last month or so... Amazon apparently
has "fire season" every year when fire blasts there for months.

I feel like someone is trying to set up Bolsonaro or maybe the histeria is
accidental because this years "fire season" in Amazon is "dry season" for
media?

The charts does not look so bad this year, but I suppose 99% people have no
idea Amazon burns every year:

[https://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145498/uptick-i...](https://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145498/uptick-
in-amazon-fire-activity-in-2019)

I mean it's really good we're finally opening our eyes (it might be too late
though), but I feel like we're being manipulated big time.

------
vfc1
When the Amazon turns into a savannah well into our lifetime, we will see how
this stuff looks like historically.

I suspect though that the attention that the press is giving to this year's
fires, which are catastrophic and need attention, has something to do with the
fact that Brasil is about to sign a historic trade agreement with the EU and
this is being used to politically pressure Brasil into stopping the increasing
deforestation.

Which I'm all for it, I get it that it's politics and that's how it works, I
just don't like the manipulation.

~~~
fwsgonzo
The "manipulation" to stop destroying the planet? To me its all about the
accelerated logging in the amazon basin that we know is fatal.

~~~
EugeneOZ
No. This year Russia lost 3 times more forest and nobody cares :) All the
noise is just about politics.

~~~
pvaldes
A hectare of forest lost in brazil is not equivalent to an hectare lost in
Taiga. Biodiversity in taiga is not even remotely close to the biodiversity in
rainforests.

There are decens of different species of trees, giving fruits, supporting
bromeliads, hundreds of orchids, arboreal frogs, monkeys, sloths, macrobats,
snails, spiders, scorpions, thousands of different insects, snakes, hundred of
birds, raptors, lizards, thousands of different fishes also in the flooded
soil ... You will never find that in a taiga's pine. Taiga is a frozen void
desert for many months of the year (and has been devoid of most of this former
macrofauna yet).

Is not always about politics.

~~~
EugeneOZ
Yeah, forest is "frozen void", lol. And each summer it's so "cold" there,
that's why forest is in fire every year.

Macron says nothing about "biodiversity", he is talking about oxygen. And
forest in Siberia makes the same oxygen (maybe just with small scent of
vodka). So in this case is just politics.

------
kebman
There is also a big forest fire in Siberia, but I can't remember seeing
anything on it in the Norwegian press. There are some stories about the Amazon
fire, though. Perhaps the one in Siberia is less dangerous? I don't know! Why
is the Amazon fire worse? Or can you compare them at all?

~~~
thewhitetulip
Amazon is the source for 20% oxygen. Brasil's president thinks climate change
is a myth (just like every conservative head of state these days)

It's scary how much he could damage the world by flattening the Amazon

~~~
austincheney
I don’t think that is accurate. Most of the oxygen produced by the Amazon
remains local and is consumed by local fauna. The rest of the world is almost
entirely dependent upon local systems and oceanic diatoms for oxygen.

There are many other serious environmental concerns at stake, but not oxygen
loss.

~~~
kibibu
What? This doesn't sound plausible at all. Do you have a citation for this
claim?

This paper suggests quite the opposite.
[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S209592731...](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S209592731830375X)

~~~
austincheney
There is a large HN discussion about it:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20789771](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20789771)

------
nafey
Not gonna lie I had the impression that Amazon was gonna get wiped out in a
matter of weeks considering the amount of attention this story has been
getting.

~~~
superpermutat0r
All the rainforest will disappear around 2040-2060 based on current
projections. Not that I blame the developing world for growing palm trees or
soybean that feeds the cattle or gets into products for the developed world.

Hail Globalization!

------
edmundo
Our information ecosystem is truly polluted. It's hard to find impartial
journalism these days – or maybe it was always like that? I think that our
willingness to share content (without thinking) is exploited to spread
disinformation.

~~~
makomk
Even this article isn't great, though it's obviously better than the hoaxes on
social media. For instance, they start off the article with the claim that
Brazil has seen a record number of forest fires in 2019 and a scary-looking
graph of them increasing from 2013. They then follow up with a repetition of
activists' claims that right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro is to blame. You
have to scroll down several pages to the very end of the article before you
find out that actually, the fire activity is close to average and 2013 was an
unusualy fire-free year - and also many of the other countries in the region
are seeing similar increases in the number of fires.

~~~
Tycho
“this article isn't great”

From your description, that seems like an understatement. If you cherry pick
starting points to make s graph look dramatic and leave out crucial context so
that readers will assume the worse, that’s not just “not great” it’s flat out
fraudulent, manipulative propaganda.

------
pvaldes
Duh... _very_ bad?

State of emergency in the largest state of Brasil

75.000 wildfires in 8 months, double as in the last year

200 millions of tonnes of CO2 released, actively boycotting any chance of
fixing climate of the planet

Deforestation accelerated in a 278%, actively increasing the six extinction
rate

But, but... this is happening since the last decades also!, so, oki doki. All
is fine like soy ice cream. Not Bolsonarson fault.

------
Spoppys
I'm seeing a lot of apparently conflicting information about these Amazon
fires. I've seen sources saying its about average, and I've seen sources
saying it's the worst since 2010.

Are they in disagreement, or are they measuring different things, so aren't
disagreeing? Or is something else going on? I'm kinda lost

~~~
makomk
From the Guardian article, the amount of ash and particulates in some
Brazilian states has hit the highest levels since 2010. There are 27 states in
Brazil (though I'm not sure all of them are downwind from rainforest or
agricultural areas). Basically, in some areas it's the worst it's been since
2010, but overall it's about average.

------
meerita
All I have seen these days in the press is to blame Bolsonaro, of some fires
that occur, every year, for decades on an area of 5,500,000 km2 and you will
tell me how a person can monitor so much surface, which is not even People can
travel. Presidents of other countries that I am not going to mention have
campaigned against Bolsonaro using old photos. It is unfortunate the political
use that is being given to this, added to the contribution that the press is
making to the levels of hysteria of the people, does not help at all.

~~~
fwsgonzo
Bolsonaro is a dangerous far-right buffoon who is accelerating logging in the
amazon basin. If you want to talk about politics then why was his direct
opponent put in jail during the election?

[https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-
politics/brazils-b...](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-
politics/brazils-bolsonaro-names-judge-who-jailed-his-rival-as-justice-
minister-idUSKCN1N65CE)

He is basically the encyclopaedia image of corruption.

~~~
meerita
His direct oponent was guilty of several corruption cases. It went on an
extensive judiciary process i believe you have followed or you understand. It
wasnt jailed summarily. The supreme court even denied by votation so, it is
not something we can relate to the amazonian fire season.

~~~
guilhas
His opponent was jailed with zero proof, in a sham that clear at the time for
anyone that understands the justice process. But recently it was clear for
everyone with the judge Moro leaked WhatsApp messages.

[https://riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/rio-
politics/national...](https://riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/rio-
politics/national-politics/new-lava-jato-leak-while-mocking-lula-moro-was-
instructing-the-prosecution/)

~~~
andrenth
Here, take your mortadela sandwich.

~~~
dang
This comment breaks the site guidelines. Can you please review them and use HN
as intended?

[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html)

Edit: we've had to ask you multiple times not to do political flamewar on HN.
Please don't use this site for political battle, even if other commenters are
wrong or annoying. It destroys the intellectual curiosity that HN exists for.

------
sarbaz
I've read like 10 articles about this so far, and they did not answer the
following questions:

\- How large, proportionally, is the burned region? How long would it
theoretically take for the whole thing to burn down at this rate?

\- How large, proportionally is the burned region in Siberia? How long has the
Siberian fire been burning, how long would it take for everything to burn
down, etc.

\- I've seen the 20% of the worlds oxygen stat a bunch. But how significant is
this fire in affecting that? Wouldn't we expect the Siberian fire to have a
larger effect because it covers a thousand times more area?

\- Can anyone explain the tipping-point business? How can a series of local
fires cause a global collapse? Especially considering that this is neither the
first nor the biggest fire?

\- Do these fires burn themselves out? How do they end?

~~~
NeedMoreTea
The best lay explanation of the tipping point business I saw recently was this
Economist piece: [https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/08/01/the-amazon-
is-...](https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/08/01/the-amazon-is-
approaching-an-irreversible-tipping-point)

In short beyond a certain point the local climate becomes unsuited to the
flora, further encouraging deforestation and changing the climate, which
becomes more prone to drought. Meanwhile the evaporative cooling from the
shrinking expanse of trees declines, changing the climate and encouraging
drought. It becomes a reinforcing effect.

------
guilhas
It is very bad because the current president policy is to sell and deforest
for farms or cattle, without any worry of the ecosystem or native people of
the area. Which should be preserve and protect.

In terms of the area affected by fire, more burned in Portugal in 2018, which
is a very small compared with Amazon size.

~~~
meerita
Do you have any oficial policy document that support that claim?

------
lazyjones
Like so many other articles, this one contains no information about the
possible causes and motives behind forest fires, just a bit of hearsay. Surely
in most countries, land that is forest has to stay forest even after a fire
and cannot legally be used as farm land? What is the legal situation in
Brazil? Could it be that reforestation has other economic benefits, like new
CO2 credits?

~~~
sprafa
Everyone who is Brazilian will tell you it’s a long shot that this is anything
but big landowners. They’ve been doing this for ages and they have murdered
people who tried to stop them.

The law in Brasil is not like in other places. You think someone will stop a
big landowner from getting more land after it’s been deforested? The new
President has gutted the environmental agencies so nothing will or can be
done.

Here’s an article on rolling stone with some more detail:
[https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-
news/brazilia...](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-
news/brazilian-farmers-believe-they-have-the-right-to-burn-the-amazon-875879/)

Notice how the local government office is under armed protection. This is to
protect them from the big landowners. This is not unusual in Brasil. Please do
more research

------
deepnet
The Amazon Rainforest Tipping Point is 20-25% deforestation total.

We are at 20% deforestation now.

[https://phys.org/news/2018-03-amazon-
deforestation.html](https://phys.org/news/2018-03-amazon-deforestation.html)

The forest fires stem from previous deforestation, so destruction is
cumulative, exponential.

Past the tipping point the rainforest dies.

To quote the Expanse, this is the cascade, (and we are nearing the point
where) this station is already dead.

~~~
brabel
> The forest fires stem from previous deforestation, so destruction is
> cumulative, exponential.

That's just wrong. The fires can actually make the forest stronger next
year[1]. This is part of the cycle of nature. Have you been to the Amazon?
Pretty much every inch of it has burned in the past, but after a year or so,
you could barely tell, as in the wet season, the plants grow a lot faster than
most people who are not from the region can even imagine.

[1]
[http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001...](http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652019000300855)

~~~
farseer
The forest does recover, unless the burnt area is cleared and planted with soy
or corn of-course.

------
Bombthecat
Last I read was, that die back is at around 20 to 25percent. We are at 20
percent. I would say, yeah it is bad :)

------
namaku0
VERY BAD, because now someone need to add 'in Brazil' to avoid confusion.

------
sc4les
Cheap burgers are cheap for reasons

------
lxhmj
In the average of the last 15 years:

[https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145464/fires-in-
bra...](https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145464/fires-in-brazil)

>As of August 16, 2019, an analysis of NASA satellite data indicated that
total fire activity across the Amazon basin this year has been close to the
average in comparison to the past 15 years.

~~~
guilhas
The problem is a combination of factors, what for others would have been a
tragedy to avoid, the current Brazilian president welcomes the fires as an
opportunity to dislodge natives and sell more land and wood.

