
Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration - mattnumbe
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-22/aging-japan-wants-automation-not-immigration
======
mc32
Japan is at the forefront of a post-industrial society. Much of the rest of
the west would be in a similar position, if not for imported labor or
outsourcing labor.

China will be in a similar spot soon. Eventually all of the world will be
where they are.

The things and lessons they learn and discover will be useful to other mature
economies soon enough.

The headway will make them leaders in innovating in this area of the economy.
Automation will only keep on advancing and displacing jobs --Japan's workforce
and jobs are in sync in this regard and if they thread it right, the reduction
in human jobs will diminish with the number of able workers.

~~~
surfmike
There seem to be two contradictory narratives: one, that rich Western
societies are aging and need to make up for a big shortage of workers; and
two, that automation has killed and will kill millions of jobs. Probably both
trends are true, but each one pulls in the opposite direction for the demand
for labor.

Maybe things aren't as bad as people fear on either side.

~~~
derping69
Because the goal of mass immigration of unskilled workers isn't what's best
for the country, its to bring in people who will be reliant on the government
and thus always vote for more government, thus further consolidating power.
Also has the benefit of driving wages down resulting in more natives being
reliant on government.

If we really needed more workers why wouldn't we incentivize our own citizens
to have kids instead of spending that money on refugees and immigrants?

~~~
sumedh
> why wouldn't we incentivize our own citizens to have kids

I am assuming by "incentivize" you meaning tax payer funded policies so are
you ready to pay more taxes?

If you are ready to pay more taxes but what about people who dont want kids.

~~~
mc32
Singapore, a multicultural society, has a pretty progressive baby bonus[1],
among other countries. They think that's what works best for their society.
They could import labor, but they prefer do it their way. It seems to work for
them.

[1][https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_bonus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_bonus)

~~~
StudyAnimal
No it's bad for society. Kids cost money, immigrants earn money. Penalize
breeding, encourage immigration.

~~~
derping69
Will those uneducated immigrants earn money when they are no longer needed due
to automation? If you have to pay to educate them anyway why not just have
your population have kids instead of importing?

~~~
StudyAnimal
The uneducated ones we need to fill the jobs that educated locals won't do and
won't be automated in their lifetimes. But a lot of them are educated and we
need them too.

------
mikekchar
This is an opinion piece backed up with practically no information whatsoever.

If you want to know about immigration policy in Japan, you need look no
further Japan's ministry of foreign affairs website. For example, here are the
categories where you can get a long term visa [0]

You will notice there is a points system [1]. You need 70 points to get in. A
degree gives you 10 points. A salary of ~$100K gives you 40 points. Being
under 30 gives you 15 points. Having 5 years of experience gives you 10
points. N1 on JLTP gives you 15 points.

I mean, it's _ridiculous_. And this is a 5 year visa with relaxed permanent
residence requirements, ability to sponsor your parents, ability to work in
_any_ field (even jobs that aren't related to your skill set!!!). The list
goes on!

And if by some incredibly unfortunate circumstance you can't qualify for that,
there are still over 10 categories where you basically only need a relevant
university degree and a job offer for a 3 year visa.

And if that isn't enough, you can start a company in Japan with about ~$50K
and sponsor a business visa for yourself.

My wife is Japanese and I'm here on a spousal visa. The application process
took 1 week and was free. I am also eligible for relaxed permanent residence
status.

Seriously, compare this to your home country and then come back and tell me
that Japan doesn't want immigration.

Now if you want to know why Japan doesn't have a lot of immigration, it's
because it is difficult for foreigners to live here if they can't speak
Japanese and/or they can't accept Japanese culture. But as far as the
government is concerned, the red carpet has been rolled out for a _long_ time.
If you have an established company in many foreign countries and wish to open
a branch office in Japan (so that you can transfer people here), the
government will even give you free assistance!

[0] -
[http://www.mofa.go.jp/j_info/visit/visa/long/index.html](http://www.mofa.go.jp/j_info/visit/visa/long/index.html)
[1] - [http://www.immi-
moj.go.jp/newimmiact_3/en/pdf/point_calculat...](http://www.immi-
moj.go.jp/newimmiact_3/en/pdf/point_calculation_forms.pdf)

~~~
darklajid
I just got a (admittedly: limited to 2 years for now, bound to the corporate
sponsor) working visa for Singapore. Looking at your description:

\- I don't have a recognized degree (I do, but .. it's complicated)

\- I never had, nor will for the foreseeable future, reach 100k USD (DE
doesn't pay like that, neither will SG in the future based on sources like
Glassdoor etc.)

\- I'm over 30

I guess what I'm trying to say is: For me the list you provided is merely a
curiosity and doesn't feel like I would have a good way to migrate to Japan if
I'd like to. It was trivial for Singapore. "Incredibly unfortunate
circumstances" seem to imply that you believe that nearly anyone can check all
the boxes. Which for the salary requirement alone seems rather insane from my
European point of view.

That said: I have no clue about immigration requirements for Germany, so I
cannot compare Japan to my home country. DE might be worse.

~~~
jaredklewis
Indeed, the kind of visa discussed is actually one of the more difficult ones
to get. Most people come in on category based visas which have more
restrictions, but more lax requirements. Usually a university degree (for
young folks) or a bunch of industry experience (for folks like yourself) is
enough. No big salary or young age required.

------
ericdykstra
Here's a more in-depth look at the issue of immigration vs automation as it
relates to Japan, from 2 Japanese economists:
[http://www.japanpolicyforum.jp/archives/economy/pt2014103018...](http://www.japanpolicyforum.jp/archives/economy/pt20141030182705.html)

My commentary with support from that article follows:

A country with the population of Japan has no chance of maintaining a higher
absolute GDP than countries with multiples of their population and more land
to expand population. A policy to try to maintain their status in the world in
terms of GDP is just silly.

If, however, Japan is more interested in the well-being of their population
than some sort of international power-play, then this is the route to go.
Population growth has no correlation to GDP per capita, so what's the point of
increasing immigration of low-skilled workers? The upside is minimal, and the
potential downside is unknown and unbounded.

I've been living in Japan for a little over 2 years now, and haven't talked to
anyone who is worried about the long-term prospects of Japan's economy. There
are structural changes that can and probably should be made, as outlined in
the link above, but the country is not on some death-spiral like a lot of
Western media would have you believe.

Is Japan a magical land of far-advanced technology, delicious food, safe and
clean cities, beautiful countrysides, and amazing public transportation?
Actually, yes; the "far-advanced technology" part just doesn't extend to mass-
market consumer electronics in the same way any more.

~~~
rdtsc
> Is Japan a magical land of far-advanced technology

Is the technology really that far advanced. I understand it was in the 80s
maybe? None of the devices I have are made by Japanese companies. None of the
software I use is developed in Japan primarily. My car is but that's about it,
but I picked it because of reliability not because of high tech features.

~~~
fzeroracer
Software development is still viewed as being a 'lesser' or 'menial' career in
Japan by larger corporations. That's why you see so little software come out
of Japan these days and also why so many Japanese websites are disasters of
design.

Granted this has been slowly changing because of startups spinning up as well
as foreign company HQs. Still, wages for developers in Japan are terribly low
in most scenarios.

~~~
hkmurakami
Something to keep in mind is that "software" (usually meaning system
integration) is distinct from "web services companies" in Japan.

They've made significant headway in the latter at least for consumer services.

------
neptunespear
Automation has changed from when Japan was on top. The focus is now on
software and open collaboration in a globalized society, not hardware built by
factory workers with proprietary standards (looking at you, FeliCa)

China may surpass Japan in the automation/AI sphere. Lots of young, English-
speaking, western-educated workers, plus the PRC has already innovated so much
in manufacturing, shipbuilding, etc., and an ecosystem willing to splash cash
on daring startups (albeit a lot of that is state funding, and you need CCP
connections to come up in the Chinese startup world) in ways that leave Japan
in the dust. Look at how Nvidia is working in China, look at the rise of
Aliyun, Baidu Cloud and Tencent Cloud.

The only Japanese companies I know that are geared for automation for the new
economy are companies like Mujin, LeapMind and Preferred Networks.

As a side note, the fact that Japan has managed zero-growth despite a rapidly
shrinking, aging population; almost zero immigration; and roughly the same
economic policy as from the 1980, is nothing short of a Herculean endeavor. I
wonder what Japan is going to do when the population decline really gets in
gear around 2040.

~~~
smallnamespace
Why is total GDP the correct metric, if per capita GDP is on the rise?

~~~
neptunespear
The provincial government in my home province of British Columbia, Canada, is
developing a genuine progress indicator (GPI) to replace the GDP metric, which
was the idea of the BC Green Party. The point made here is that GDP is a very
imperfect solution. Christy Clark may have boasted about BC's booming economy
by pointing to GDP numbers, but do they explain the whole story?

I know that's neither here nor there, however.

------
temp-dude-87844
Japan has never been one to shy away from high-tech industries, and as the
article notes, aesthetic sensibilities towards kawaii robots make this a
natural progression for a high-tech, ethnically homogeneous, aging nation.

Although Japan was once an imperial power, its reconciliation with its past
has not included a transition to a multicultural post-colonial state promoted
by intellectuals and practiced by widespread (and largely economic) migration
from former colonies to the home country at the seat of power, as it has
occurred in the case of most other imperial powers. The difference being, the
places where this transition _did_ take place had been colonial empires for
longer, and had for centuries notions of nationhood derived from shared values
more so than shared ethnicity.

~~~
matt4077
Germany comes to mind as a counterexample: a homogenous nation until the late
1950s, with no colonies to speak of, and jus sanguinis. Yet it transition to a
functioning, diverse society today.

And Japan is arguably paying a steep price for keeping their blood oh-so-pure:
it's a society frozen in tradition and fear, with an economy in what is
essentially a 20-year recession.

Making robots care for the elderly will just be another step in the
dehumanisation of that society, indeed. It's the coup the grace for a
generation that replaced social life with "being in the office" and love life
with blow-up dolls and pornography.

~~~
mc32
I think you're projecting western values on Japan.

While we may see "dehumanization" they don't. Where you see a pornography
fetish, they see it as an extension of their sexuality. For them it's
progress. They have valued tradition and will continue to do so. It's not an
ephemeral value they hold.

Germany found a different path. It does not necessarily mean it's the one true
path.

And, long term, all societies will face the same issues. Some sooner, some
much later --but face it they will.

~~~
matt4077
I'm pretty sure the need for social interactions with other people is somewhat
central to being human, and not a trait of culture. That's why humans are
often called "social animals".

The suicide rate in japan being 3x European levels also seems to point at
something being amiss, although that may indeed be an artefact of culture.

------
irishasaurus
Hasn't this been the case since the 1980's?

[http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/manufacturing-
innovation-...](http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/manufacturing-innovation-
lessons-from-the-japanese-auto-industry/)

------
nopinsight
An idea: Some blue-collar workers displaced by factory automation could be
retrained to maintain and repair robots used in healthcare and home
assistance.

As developed nations age, there will be increasing needs for healthcare
workers including those for home assistance. Since the supply of people
wanting the jobs might be limited and many blue-collar workers tend to balk at
taking pink-collar jobs, robots could be the intermediary that satisfies both
the supply for services and demand for jobs.

~~~
nkrisc
The notion of retaining workers to maintain the robots that replaced them
reminds me of a quip from the sci-fi book series The Expanse. One of the
characters, a space vessel's engineer, remarks that hundreds of years ago on
Earth (today) he'd be a nuclear physicist, but in his time he's just a
mechanic.

------
oculusthrift
I think this is a brilliant solution for them because of the way their country
is setup. (Strong culture with extremely homogeneous population and low birth
rate) I really do think a lot of what makes japan special would go away with
too much immigration. That being said, America is the opposite and automation
would hurt us and so would restricting immigration.

~~~
Moshe_Silnorin
Why would automation hurt us?

~~~
linksnapzz
Heck, how does restricting immigration hurt us?

------
0xbear
This explains a lot of recent moves by SoftBank.

------
StudyAnimal
"One small manufacturer insisted that immigration would dilute Japan's
homogeneous society. " Good, that's exactly what Japan needs.

------
cylinder
Common sense. A large population is going to be a big liability going forward.
The Anglosphere hasn't figured this out yet.

------
zxcvvcxz
Makes a lot of sense. Why risk their cultural homogeneity - something clearly
valued by the majority of Japan - if there are technological solutions to
increasing productivity?

Edit - why the downvotes?

~~~
mc32
I think people tend to project their western cultural framework onto Japan and
see it not fitting well.

Much of east Asia is very internal-looking (China was the middle kingdom for a
reason). They tend to keep to themselves as a society and value their values
from their perspective --not as self-critical as other societies, in some
ways. It's something anathema to a number of westerners.

So of course to some people it looks like Japan (or east Asia in general) is
not "sharing" in their wealth with others as your implicit agreement is kind
of a non-sequitur for some people.

Going on a tangent here, but for example, in India, Dalits will at times use
English but primarily western philosophy to argue their position vis a vis the
dominant castes because they lend themselves better to examine these
questions.

------
petre
At least it's better than paying for immigrants that forced their way into
your country as the Germans are doing now.

~~~
StudyAnimal
Go away racist. Refugees need a safe place and germany needs fresh foreign
blood to keep its society running. It's a win win. German children are going
to take a long time before they start contributing and even then they will end
up on Hartz IV before they accept a normal job.

~~~
dang
> _Go away racist_

Please don't respond to a bad comment by violating the HN guidelines yourself.
Indeed, please don't respond to bad comments at all. Flag them instead:

[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html)

------
tanilama
Automation is no cure for Japan. Their influence is waning rapidly, in many
sectors. I would say that, with an aging population, Japan is turning into a
stale country, culture wise and economy wise alike.

~~~
fiblye
I think the average Japanese person doesn't care about how stale outsiders
think they are, and they certainly don't feel like they need a "cure." If
anything, society here is reverting more to a norm after being in a massive
economic bubble.

Really, it's honestly kind of freaky how often I see western media articles
about how Japan needs to act now, or they're doomed to fail and their
population will vanish. Yet I see nothing about Bulgaria losing 25% of its
population in 25 years or Belgium needing to reevaluate its global image for
fear of irrelevancy.

~~~
matt4077
> If anything, society here is reverting more to a norm after being in a
> massive economic bubble.

So, you're agreeing that Japan is on a long downward slope to economic and
technological irrelevance, but you believe the average Japanese would rather
accept this than immigration?

~~~
fiblye
Japan is reverting to a state of being as technologically and economically
irrelevant as Western European countries.

The most common thing I see on the news and hear people worry about is the
violence going on in America and in the increasingly common European terror
attacks. The attitude to immigration is only being solidified here, and none
of the "but what about your GDP???" stuff matters to anyone but degree mill
economists. The country is safe and stable, and population is coming down to a
number that's more sustainable for a small, mountainous, mostly non-arable
country. That's all that people really care about.

~~~
matt4077
Here are a few things correlated with GDP. Note that we don't know the
direction of causation, so either Japan's GDP is going sideways because
corruption is on the rise–or they can expect corruption to rise because the
economy is stagnating.

low levels of GDP and high levels of corruptions are correlated

poverty reduction and per capita income growth performances are correlated

economic freedom is correlated with income

Rule of law is correlated to GDP per person

There is only a partial correlation between democracy and economic growth but
stronger correlation between democracy and level of GDP

As per capita income increases to around US$5,000 per annum, environmental
quality falls, but then from around $8,000 per capita onwards, the
environmental quality rises again

GDP and happiness is correlated

GDP per capita is correlated to percentage of population who donate to charity

GDP is correlated to individualism in a country

Wealthier countries tend to have less income inequality

