
Show HN: Betting game where you can choose your prize or your chance of winning - kaues
https://kaue.me/bet/
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JokerDan
Trying different things and settled on running with 2% chance.

At bet 600 I was at $191.25. Not too bad of a gain, but the I went 200 bets
without a win, putting me at -$8.75 and I stopped playing.

I always find things like this, chance and probability a very satisfying and
interesting thing to see how it works out.

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sshb
Did simulate this stuff
[https://github.com/sashabaranov/betting/blob/master/Betting....](https://github.com/sashabaranov/betting/blob/master/Betting.ipynb)

2% looks like good short-term strategy

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kaues
Cool simulation, I guess it could be extended to generate more than 2 lines
per config and aggregate all lines, and then it would likely converge to the
respective binomial distribution stats on
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution).

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codingdave
Playing with the options is mildly interesting, but the button to 'bet real
money' which is just a mailto link... that is a bit odd.

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kaues
Sorry, I'm experimenting with ways to contact. In the past I had a contact
form, but I suspect people typed their own e-mail incorrectly in the form. I
want to avoid using external sites such as Facebook or Twitter. I also use
Disqus for comments on some pages. Do you have other ideas?

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KajMagnus
A lower right corner chat widget? There's Intercom and like 20 alternatives :-
)

Or a discussion forum like Discourse or Flarum or Talkyard (I'm developing,
see my profile).

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kaues
Thanks, I'll check them out!

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rsecora
Nice page, but not a fair game. The expected value/return for all bets is
always lower than the 1$ bet. Just multiply probability by the outcome.

In the long run, you will always lose.

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tibanne
Have you come across [https://satoshidice.com/](https://satoshidice.com/)

It's similar except also provably fair.

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owenshen24
I think the Kelly Criterion can tell you what proportion of your funds to be
betting in situations like this.

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kaues
I agree, and I think on this case it would recommend betting a negative value
and taking the other side of the bet, since the expected value is negative.

Quoting from
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion):
"If the edge is negative (b<q/p) the formula gives a negative result,
indicating that the gambler should take the other side of the bet."

