
Russian WW2 parade: A tank-spotter's guide - aymenim
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32588868
======
exar0815
Apparently, one of the Armatas broke down during the Parade, and one of the
Buk missile launchers caught fire.

Admittedly, the Tank looks usable, but the question of the value of a
completely new MBT is a really urgent one. Especially as the worth of armor
diminishes more and more, as it already did once in the 60s. Modern ATGM are
capable of smashing every modern MBT at the first hit, and the only protection
are active protection systems as fitted to modern Israeli Merkavas. As long as
the russians don't equip this Tank with one of those, its as big a casket as
an old T-54.

~~~
drzaiusapelord
This a million times. Tanks are ceremonial items at this point, at least
against a sophisticated NATO-like enemy. This is just a propagandist display,
something Russians are prone to do. Russia doesn't even have the autonomy to
properly invade a non-military power like Ukraine without the West stepping
in, thus all the "that's not really us" shenanigans. I'm not sure what enemy
they plan to use this stuff on as anyone within their limited military range
can trivially get Western ATGM's or already has them.

The reality is that long-range power projection, automation/comm/logistics,
long range targeting, advanced arms, drones/UAVs/unmanned, air superiority,
quick carrier group deployments, etc decide modern war outcomes. Russia
struggles with this level of sophistication, hell, they are trying to get the
French to build carriers for them and are woefully behind in several critical
key measures. Pretending its still WWII and bulking up in armor, especially
ones without counters to modern ATGM's, makes as much sense as building
another Maginot line. Russian reactive armor leaves a lot to be desired. ATGM
tech usually outstrips armor tech quickly and NATO's current offerings are
pretty impressive. Not to mention the cost of reactive armor raises the cost,
per tank, anywhere between 300-500k, which makes it economically infeasible to
retro-arm older tanks frequently.

Russia's tank force is mostly a 1970s relic, the T-72. Constant retrofitting
is still lipstick on a pig and to NATO forces. Older DU based munitions like
the M829A3's and others punch through these things with ease. Fifth generation
M829E4's take out the best Russian armor today. A $10,000 NATO round punches
through $500,000 tank armor. Tank armor is a fool's errand at best, as
munitions catch up too fast and armor development takes too long/tank lifespan
is too long/tank retrofitting is too expensive. The Russians know this, but
lack the sophistication to modernize in other ways, so they double-down on
tanks, which will probably have a long service life on the usual parade route,
but not be effective in combat. Especially now that Putin has rebranded
himself anti-NATO, anti-West, anti-Democracy, pro-Autocracy, pro-Annexation,
pro-Assad, pro-Jong-Un, etc. He's not partnering up with NATO for some peace
mission, he's pointing his guns at them and compared to NATO he's at a massive
disadvantage militarily with these tanks, which just become very expensive
coffins for Russian tank crews.

~~~
DominikR
Yeah, that's also what Napoleon, Hitler and every other major power that tried
to invade Russia in the last 500 years also said.

~~~
adventured
That's a strawman. Who is talking about invading Russia? Nobody. The parent
comment is talking about the low value proposition offered by Russia's tank
upgrade.

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snake_plissken
For those interested, Tom Clancy's Red Storm Rising presents a pretty accurate
account of a major modern day tank battle/ground war between two advanced
armies. It's also a great Cold War era novel. Basically, short-range (1-4 km)
anti-tank guided missiles wreak havoc on tanks and neutralize any advancing
armor columns. Attack helicopters also are important but their effectiveness
ends up being severely limited by Man-portable air-defense systems (think
Stinger Missiles). Air superiority, for both sides at first, is limited by
over the horizon radar and mobile SAM units, and so it ends up being too risky
to use air assets to attack ground forces.

As for how it would turn out today, I think about the same. Point defense
systems to intercept ATGMs are still relatively new and have only been tested
in the field by Israel against Hamas during their 2014 war. They were
supposedly very successful with intercepting RPGs and Metis-Ms
([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K115-2_Metis-M](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K115-2_Metis-M)).
I'm unconvinced drones like the Predator or Reaper would be effective in an
extended conflict. The real power of drones lies in their ability to loiter in
area for an incredibly long amount of time and wait for a target to present
itself. In a modern battlefield where the sky is constantly being illuminated
by radar, a loitering craft in the area of battle is not going to be there for
long.

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coldcode
I was hoping it was a parade of WW2 era tanks. Still the new tank is pretty
interesting design.

~~~
sologoub
They did have T-34 and either SU-100 or SU-85 (can't tell the difference
between them). Only video I found has an RT reporter right in the middle
obstracting some view:
[https://youtu.be/fo-P98cVtq8](https://youtu.be/fo-P98cVtq8)

Tanks are first 50 seconds, then it moves on to modern stuff.

~~~
exar0815
I think they are SU-100, but I would have loved to see some more of the
WW2-Veterans. But as most of them molder and rust away in a sorry state in
some open air museums...

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guiomie
What's with the tarp on the Koalitsiya-SV ?

~~~
pavel_lishin
Hiding the shoggoth controlling the vehicle.

[http://www.infinityplus.co.uk/stories/colderwar.htm](http://www.infinityplus.co.uk/stories/colderwar.htm)

------
trhway
Russia is ready to win the next WWII. It is just so happens that WWII is
already in the past, and the next wars will be won by drones and other high-
tech weapon systems which Russia isn't capable to produce. The drones they flt
in Ukraine war are foreign (bought from Israel).

~~~
jnardiello
Sure, drones and high-tech weapon systems. I can clearly see how hyper-tech
weapons will function at -40C, with N meters of snow and covering distances
where you need Nk-km to reach the closest village.

I don't really mean to sound caustic but you clearly have no idea what you are
talking about. There are two big mistakes which are commonly made these days:
1) technology is overrated (vs nature) 2) as humans we think we are in control
and only first hand experience would teach us otherwise.

Pull out a phone at -40, it won't even switch on. Circuitry won't work,
batteries won't last. Russia is a harsh country, with harsh people which has
first hand experience of a territory where western technology wouldn't simply
stand a chance.

~~~
adventured
You don't defeat Russia by invading it and fighting in -40 degree weather.

You defeat Russia before the war begins, by keeping them impoverished as they
are today. So long as they retain their current system, they will remain that
way perpetually. Putin was bailed out by the dollar induced boom in the price
of commodities from 2002-2014, specifically oil; that party is over. He has no
second trick up his sleeve, which is why he is now turning to invading his
neighbors.

Today Russia's economy is 1/9th the size of the US economy. In just 15 years,
the Russian economy will fall to 1/12th the size of the US economy.

When you are so far behind economically, and showing absolutely zero potential
for progress, the long-term military threat you can pose (outside of nukes),
becomes proportionally restrained. Russia is now a regional power, barely able
to maintain its own mass, much less project power against something like NATO.

Russia's ability to project force outside of its borders, is dramatically
lower than it was during Soviet times, and it's going to remain that way.
There's no need to fight inside of Russia, when they can't fight outside of
Russia.

~~~
jnardiello
Yes, I do agree with you. That's the real weapon we - as people from the
western block - have and comes with little surprise that Russia is trying to
redefine the whole economical system by joining with China.

[http://nationalinterest.org/feature/could-chinas-renminbi-
ri...](http://nationalinterest.org/feature/could-chinas-renminbi-rival-the-
dollar-the-next-reserve-12851)

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fapjacks
From an article online: "And Russia's RT news says the Armata could 'evolve
into a fully robotic battle vehicle'."

~~~
trhway
A good sergeant in Russian army boot-camp can make a robot out of any freshly
drafted organic.

