
If Sweden succeeds, lockdowns will all have been for nothing - 1cvmask
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/25/sweden-succeeds-lockdownswill-have-nothing/
======
endogui
Unlike other countries which announce fatalities on the date they become known
to authorities. Sweden updates its fatality chart retroactively on the day
each person actually died. Since it takes a long time to get/process death
information to/in the national government, the effect of this is that Sweden's
Covid fatality chart always looks like it has just peaked. The apparent dip in
daily deaths is just a delay in reporting.

[https://mobile.twitter.com/NiklasJonsson91/status/1252976186...](https://mobile.twitter.com/NiklasJonsson91/status/1252976186277462016)

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JohnJamesRambo
[https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/sweden-
coron...](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-
deaths-lockdown-social-distancing-denmark-finland-norway-a9470771.html)

"Alarming data has shown Sweden’s approach to containing coronavirus has led
to a far greater number of fatalities than their Nordic neighbours."

Is this article I read a week ago not true anymore?

~~~
tomohawk
A more representative comparison:

[https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/new-covid-deaths-per-
mill...](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/new-covid-deaths-per-
million?tab=chart&time=2020-03-08..&country=BEL+FRA+DEU+ITA+ESP+SWE+GBR+USA)

It's great that Norway and Finland are doing well, but Sweden isn't doing that
bad.

~~~
IAmEveryone
Here's the comparison of the four Scandinavian countries:
[https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-
mi...](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-
million?tab=chart&year=2020-04-25&country=DNK+FIN+NOR+SWE)

Yeah, no. Sweden doesn't look particularly successful.

~~~
phillipseamore
To compare; it's important to note that in a typical month, twice as many die
in Sweden compared to Denmark, without Covid.

~~~
IAmEveryone
The numbers are per capita. Unless Swedes have a life expectancy of around 40
years, this is properly normalised.

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Gustomaximus
1) Sweden has significantly higher deaths per capita.

2) Even if this works out for Sweden, they took a massive gamble with their
citizens lives going for herd immunity with so many unknown.

An extreme example but its like that guy that sold everything bet it on
red/black at Vegas. He doubled his wealth in a day but it still doesn't make
him a model of financial management.

~~~
bjourne
That's not an apt analogy since Sweden's strategy _is_ guided by
epidemiologists and not gamblers. In other countries politicians have taken
more extreme measures than recommended by the experts. For example, the UK
planned to apply the same strategy but the death tolls became too high and
political pressure forced them to change course.

I'm not an epidemiologist so I cannot say (yet) who is wrong and who is right.
But I can for sure say that they are doing their best and they are not
gambling with citizens lives.

~~~
Gustomaximus
I would position they gambled. We're still not sure if people become immune
and if so how long.

We have an idea of better statistics but there is much unknown, especially in
the early days of these decisions. Gambling at an analytical level is playing
the odds as much as these guys are playing odds from a position of expertise
from their field. Maybe we dont call it game ling because it's "analysis" but
the difference is language but the fundamentals are the same. They are both
taking bets based on incomplete information and what they feel is the best
option.

If the knew more and weren't modeling off big assumed variables I'd agree with
you. But when you make decisions off big unknown variables I say it's gambling
regardless of your education or level of expertise.

------
glofish
I now believe that no one really knows much about the spread of this virus.
Hence I find it naive to predict that the peak was on one day or another, plus
it is very unlikely that Sweden would not get even more cases. They are most
certainly not at their peak.

Look at Spain, locked down hard on March 14th, yet the number of cases on
April 4th were the same as on April 24th (!) (and among of the largest
observed over 6K). No one would have ever predicted that back in March 14th,
that after more than a month of keeping the population like prisoners the
number of cases would be still so high with no chance of going to zero any
time soon. Eventually, within weeks now, they have to relax the rules, and
with that they will be right where Sweden is.

When it is all said and done who did better, which society is better off
overall. My bet is on Sweden, but the answer will not be determined tomorrow,
next week or even next month. Perhaps by this time next year.

~~~
iampims
The number of cases is a function of the number of tests. The number of
fatalities would be a better representation of the lockdown effects.

~~~
glofish
The problem with the number of fatalities is that only one fatality is
tracked.

Where is the counter for the children that die because not getting immunized
because of the lockdown? (Turns out there are already tens of millions of them
not getting vaccines, measles immunization is down 50%) Where is the fatality
counter for depression, for weakened immune systems that lockdown causes, etc.
Where is the counter for all the diseases not treated because of the lockdown?
Where is the counter for famine and poverty?

Do you see the problem? There is only one counter up there ticking up every
day, all common sense sacrificed to make the tick go slower.

If we had a counter for all the deaths caused by the lockdown there would be
no lockdown at all.

~~~
IAmEveryone
> Where is the counter for the children that die because not getting immunized

They don't die. They are protected because the vast majority _is_ vaccinated.

It's something called herd immunity. You seem like you should have heard of
it.

> for weakened immune systems that lockdown causes

That's not a thing.

> If we had a counter for all the deaths

You're in luck: almost all the statisticians are trying to switch to all-cause
mortality. That should be the definite answer to all your questions.

~~~
glofish
ok bascially you are saying that no deaths have been or will be caused by the
lockdown

and why vaccinate since herd immunity already affects everyone (never mind 10
if not 100 million vaccines have not been administered)

there is no such thing as a weakened immune system after being locked up in a
house for weeks if not months.

and that is your scientific reasoning ...

------
smitty1e
Hannan is a serious, thoughtful writer and does not merit flagging merely for
broaching an opinion athwart the narrative.

~~~
Ozzie_osman
Yeah I agree. Why is this flagged?

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IAmEveryone
Sweden has 10x as many deaths as its neighbours Finland and Norway each, or 5x
as many scaled to population. It's third neighbour, Denmark, also has about
half the population and only 1/5th as many deaths. All these countries are
somewhat similar in wealth, rural vs. urban population, etc.

It has 4x as many deaths as Germany adjusted for population, and 4x as many
deaths as Austria (not adjusted for population, because they are similar).

And so on... Take the worst European countries: Spain and Italy. These two
have about twice as many deaths as Sweden relative to population. But then
again, their numbers are declining, while Sweden's is still growing.

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cm2187
I also don’t think we can completely exclude that the peak observed in sweden
corresponds to the seasonality of the virus.

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imustbeevil
Sweden: 10M population, 18K cases, 2K deaths [0].

North Carolina: 10M population, 8K cases, 300 deaths [1].

[0]
[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/)

[1]
[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

~~~
lsllc
Massachusetts: 6.8M population, 53.3K cases, 2730 deaths. [0]

[0] [https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-
april-25-2020/do...](https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-
april-25-2020/download)

~~~
imustbeevil
Overlooking the fact that with 200% more cases Massachusetts has only 35% more
deaths:

Sweden population density: 64 people / square mile.

Massachusetts population density: 890 (14x) people / square mile.

\---

Stockholm population density: 5,200 people / square mile.

Boston population density: 13,800 (2.5x) people / square mile.

(all sources just wikipedia entries)

------
detaro
Just a few other recent Sweden coronavirus discussions:

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22919074](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22919074)

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22944891](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22944891)

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22908103](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22908103)

------
TomMckenny
Likewise as it fails, their higher fatality rate helps show what was avoided.
Although most countries under lock down could not handle the peak
hospitalizations that Sweden can which would mean far more deaths. And one
would need to compare Sweden's results to similar countries like others in
Scandinavia. And at the moment Sweden's death rate is 6 to 10 times its
neighbors[1]. So a success or failure in Sweden is extremely informative but
not completely transferable.

Swedes are pretty generous conducting this experiment on their population for
the edification of the survivors.

[1][https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/new-covid-deaths-per-
mill...](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/new-covid-deaths-per-
million?tab=chart&time=2020-03-08..&country=SWE+NOR+DNK+FIN)

~~~
basch
>higher fatality rate helps show what was avoided

Isn't the opposite of flattening the curve, to absorb the hit all at once. You
would expect a much higher death rate for a shorter amount of time.

~~~
foogazi
> You would expect a much higher death rate for a shorter amount of time.

Only if surviving covid-19 provided immunization against a other infection

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6nf
This submission was flagged. I wonder why? Political reasons? I don't think
it's a bad article.

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nxcho
This is a very good explanation of the how and why of the Swedish strategy
[https://bppblog.com/2020/04/23/the-swedish-
exception/](https://bppblog.com/2020/04/23/the-swedish-exception/)

------
cczizou
Can we really compare conscientious Swedes with bold Brits or brash Americans?
I live in a state in the USA where our Governor has instated a full lockdown.
Yet, our citizens are out and about intentionally going against guidelines.

~~~
koheripbal
Being outside isn't necessarily dangerous if you are maintaining safe
distances. What continues transmission, more than anything these days, are
infection chains that spread through families, at healthcare facilities, and
at other essential services that remain open and include person contact or
item contact.

Of course, the degree to which people take social distancing seriously impacts
the R of contagion, but as the number of cases increase, so do the percentage
of people that take it more seriously.

~~~
cczizou
I agree. Where I live, social groups and families have continued to meet in
person without regard to spreading the illness. My state is seeing new case
counts flatten but my specific county is still gaining new cases at a higher
rate than the rest of the region. It’s hard to not feel a little frustrated
with these folks.

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DeonPenny
Yeh it's should put of lot of eggs on faces but I doubt it. if this ends up
being the right decision no one will hear about it cause it makes to many
people look incompetent

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WheelsAtLarge
I think it's very hard to extrapolate Sweden's result to other parts of the
world. We have seen what New York and Italy have had to deal with in terms of
deaths and that's after they went into a lockdown. I'm sure there are parts in
the world where a lockdown was not needed but how can you figure that out
beforehand.

I'm sure there have been mistakes made during this pandemic but it's too early
to decide which have been good or bad.

------
chadash
Some of the comments here are missing the point. Yes, Sweden has more deaths
than it's neighbors. But obviously that's true... they didn't lock down.

The issue is that lockdowns can only last so long. The initial hope was that
we can quickly find an effective treatment for this virus, but so far, that's
looking unlikely. Hydroxycloriquine and Remdesivir were the best hopes and in
controlled studies, they aren't showing effectiveness. While an effective
treatment is still possible, it will likely require a new drug to be developed
and tested, which is a far more time consuming process than using a drug that
is already approved for other uses (since you already understand the side
effects). Meanwhile, a vaccine is still a year or two away according to most
experts, if we ever find one at all (some viruses are very hard to find
vaccinations for).

So eventually, countries will need to lift their lockdowns. People in
democracies are already getting restless. And once that happens, rates of
infections will go up, and countries that have had very low death rates so far
due to lockdowns will start to see their numbers climb. Meanwhile, Sweden will
have already had a large share of their population who already had the virus
and are (hopefully) immune to it, at least short term.

That said, Sweden's strategy might not work for every country even if it ends
up working for them. They have a very strong healthcare system and a
relatively healthy population. Other countries may not fare so well.

~~~
basch
>Hydroxycloriquine and Remdesivir were the best hopes and in controlled
studies, they aren't showing effectiveness. While an effective treatment is
still possible, it will likely require a new drug to be developed and tested

They were the best hopes in the sense that stockpiles existed, not that they
were the best at fighting it. For example, Camostat and Favipiravir are other
candidates but not approved in the US.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_drug_repurposing_rese...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_drug_repurposing_research)

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foogazi
Good for the swedes, we’ll find out eventually right?

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sudoaza
Sweden new cases by day are still growing

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kindly_fo
I hope they succeed.

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rspoerri
You cant compare a country already mostly isolated (like sweden) with one
heavily infected (like italy) and say it was meaningless to shutdown. Thats BS

