
Why App Stores Are Not the Business Model for the 21st Century  - fiaz
http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/142/killer-apps.html
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stcredzero
So, his one bit of proof is that the LiveScribe digital pen's app store didn't
work? A digital pen is very firmly a _peripheral_ in the minds of users. Since
it lacks its own display, it's going to be very hard to position it as a
_platform_. Do users use it to unify data from other devices? Do users
_currently_ think of it as something to install stuff on?

No, LiveScribe is not going to have a future in App stores. But a Tablet
device might do very well with one. The downside of App Stores is control. But
the upside is the same. Do modern consumers want the chaos of the free market,
or do they want safety and convenience? There will be constituents for both.
But right now, safety is something that is still lacking for personal
computing.

My prediction: there will be more App Stores. These App Stores will only be
viable for _platforms_. Once they are widespread, there will be a backlash,
but the App Stores and their highly controlled platforms will be a fixture in
our digital future.

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joe-mccann
Yeah, App store not a viable business model. You're right, some of the biggest
players in tech have been wrong for so long: Apple, Google, and now Amazon.

Software engineering has been viable for years. The device is the only thing
that is changing. Moreover, the author states the 'web' is the 'app' that
works on every platform. The naivety here is palpable thru the page.

How many software titles work on Mac and PC and Linux? Plenty. Write code to
one code base? Hardly.

Frameworks like Phonegap and Appcelerator's Titanium allow for some code re-
use for mobile apps, but one is essentially utilizing the "web" view on those
devices. So if you are really looking for performance you are betting against
the phone's JavaScript interpreter to process your accelerometer video game
versus the phone's processor itself.

The app store business model should not be one someone banks on, in my
opinion, for all their revenue. However, the app stores existence and
attraction to businesses should be seen as an opportunity for devs to provide
services and expertise for clients WHO WANT/NEED apps. This demand, I don't
see falling any time soon...

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brisance
So what's the "business model for the 21st Century"? Advertising? No thanks.

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axod
advertising has powered the web for the last 10+ years. I'd expect it to be
there for the long term.

Advertising is nice because it's optional. You can click ads, or you can just
ignore them.

~~~
stcredzero
Ads are optional in the same way inhaling tobacco smoke was optional 20 years
ago. You could go to bars, or you could just ignore them.

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jdrock
App Stores are much more likely to be a viable business for an already-
successful technology company with a well-known brand.

Speaking from personal experience, App Stores don't work very well for smaller
companies with a smaller customer base. An App Store is going to require a
developer to learn a unique instruction set. The incentive for most developers
to do this is to earn money from the company's customers. If the company is
small and has a small base (even if it is growing), it's difficult to attract
a lot of developers. The hurdle of learning the instruction set + the low
potential of earning substantial revenue is not that interesting.

~~~
bad_user
People should look at the Android Market. While the platform is backed by a
strong brand, has big potential and it's open enough ... not too many
developers have jumped in.

This may change once Android phones are popular enough and there's a story of
someone getting rich in one month, working in his spare time.

The article does have a point ... the web eliminates distribution costs and
the need for middle-men. That was one strong incentive for web-apps happening.

Unfortunately, with big software houses (like Google and Yahoo) making great
apps available mostly for free to regular users ... people became accustomed
to free stuff on the web. As a result, there are few online businesses that
are profitable.

Even so, phones are becoming more and more like regular laptops ... and in
time, more open, since that's inevitable (App Stores being artificial
restrictions).

~~~
jdrock
Perhaps an additional requirement is good marketing from the App Store
company. Apple aggressively markets the iPhone App Store. I don't see Google
doing the same. iPhone Apps are a big success because they are "top of mind"
for the general population. Android apps, not so much. I am sure most people
have no idea what Android is or that there is an app market for it.

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kasterma
I really hope that app stores are on their way out, for exactly the reason the
article gives (lack of openness). So even though I am at this point doubtful
about them actually being on the decline, I like seeing articles that suggest
they are. Maybe the articles can help with this decline.

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RyanMcGreal
> Inspired by the spectacular success of Apple's App Store -- which observers
> believe pulls in more than a billion dollars in annual revenue (Apple isn't
> telling)

Isn't Apple a publicly traded company? How are they not allowed to disclose
this?

~~~
protomyth
Hide it on other lines of revenue.

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gfunk911
The App Store model and the "free to install" model are not incompatible.

The App Store is hugely convenient, and makes it dead simple to install and
pay for software. The part of the App Store that doesn't involve restrictive
policies is a win. There is no reason that a sponsored App Store and the
freedom to install whatever you want cannot coexist. In a magical parallel
universe where Apple encouraged Cydia, that's exactly what we would have: App
Store as package manager with a user-friendly front end and payment
infrastructure.

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pchristensen
App Stores are an effective model because people are willing to pay for a
baseline level of filtering. I can read anything I want online but I love
buying certain magazines (New Yorker, Economist, Seed, etc) because I _know_
the stuff in them will be good. Sure, some good writing might not make it in
because of the editorial process, but I'm willing to live with that.

I think the future of App Stores is to branch into departments with their own
kind of branding. The control and profit for store owners is too good to give
up, but branded departments would give more variety. IE the Role Playing Game
Store, the Silly Diversion Store, etc. This is technically simple to partition
the stores like this, and it's would help solve the "big pile of apps"
discovery problem.

Apple is more likely to let people/orgs create their own "app storefronts" and
maybe give them 1% or 5% of the revenue. So if you shop at pg's App Store, you
would get things that are simple and useful, while if you shopped at Scoble's
App Store, you'd see every new tech gadget.

~~~
pchristensen
Please enlighten me as to the problem, whoever downvoted me? Apple could keep
some of the open aspects of the App Store while still keeping control of
distribution and profits - what's the problem?

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rgoddard
To me, the interesting part was the fact that the App store was basically an
after thought. Given how popular it has become indicates that it is filling a
need. The long term viability of it is in question, but I think it has a good
chance of sticking around.

~~~
Tichy
There is no alternative to the app store, so I think drawing conclusions from
it's popularity might be misguided. There certainly is a need for apps...

Besides, there is nothing wrong with App stores per se, just with them being
the only option.

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zck
Interesting that they consider pg's site a blog.

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joubert
There's a difference between web-delivered UI's and application that run on
the metal.

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mattmanser
Wrong, wrong, wrong. Consoles show that he is totally wrong. Closed platform,
totally controlled by the vendor and software sales are increasing compared to
the 'open' platform of PCs where sales are falling.

And who are these 'prominent' programmers he's talking about? Only prominent
programmers I've heard of are famous games programmers saying that if they
started now they'd be programming for the iPhone as it's so good.

What is it with people prematurely calling the demise of the app store?
Wishful thinking won't make it happen.

~~~
dojo
The fragmented nature of the mobile device industry is what makes it difficult
for any competitor to come in and "dethrone" the big, bad Apple. It's almost
like when it comes to smart and progressive mobile apps it's "Apple" vs
"everybody else".

So... what needs to happen is a marketplace that's been created specifically
for everything that's _not_ Apple iPhone; one that actually focuses more on
the software, instead of the hardware, and one that can spell out how that new
fun game "Kick the Squirrels off their Bicycles" can work on a Nokia and
Motorola, because (as they're all web-enabled), the most important aspect
would be the phone's web-browsing capability. Fennec [
<https://wiki.mozilla.org/Fennec> ] , for example, could be a pretty good
starting point.

Firefox put a significant dent in IE's share of the PC hardware browser;
something similar will happen with the iPhone, once people realize that
they're getting charged _way_ too much for those iPhone contracts (kinda like
ISPs screw[ed] people over by talking them into their 1+ or 2+ year "DSL modem
service" contracts).

