
To Invent the Future, You Must Understand the Past (2015) - rbanffy
https://backchannel.com/why-silicon-valley-will-continue-to-rule-c0cbb441e22f#.8thpg4yly
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xlayn
I would question the above statement under the following premises:

    
    
      -Disruption is about taking a different path than the 
       historic "proven" one... example future based on the past
       bad product: motorcycle front suspension fork, disruption
       improved product: telelever suspension (or similar in 
       approach Mcpherson suspension)
      -Based on the past Genetic Algorithms could lead to local
       maximum; alternative option is always to let some non 
       top-fit elements to prevent or minimize this situation.
      -History provides context and therefore bounds... counter
       example of not taking history leads to more successful
       results [0][1]
    
      [0] http://www.snopes.com/college/homework/unsolvable.asp
      [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Dantzig
    

Edit: I would also suggest a "Confirmation bias" on the Article; from
Wikipedia:

> _The tendency to search for, interpret, focus on and remember information in
> a way that confirms one 's preconceptions._

With that said that would lead us to the already existing question of

if correlation doesn't imply causation what does?

Edit2:
[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11211583](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11211583)
which seems to state (a priori) the opposite idea.

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officialchicken
> I think I can answer those questions.

Actually, I don't think you can - you're too close to the subject to be
objective about it. Maybe in 100 years.

Counterpoint: 20 years ago Shenzhen was a sleepy fishing village. Nothing
about fishing explains my motherboard or phone. It was central planning not
organic growth.

Nexus, like the cities represented by them have always existed as a
socioeconomic force. This is true as far as we know further than written
history can tell us e.g. Hattusa [1]. And no one can explain them or create
them from scratch outside the fact that some last longer than others.

A visit to Amsterdam reveals the lasting power of the Tulip as both a symbol
and an economic force over centuries [2]. What physical form will SV take in
the future is more interesting than any postulating by the author - who as a
historian - should know better.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hattusa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hattusa)
[2]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania)

~~~
agumonkey
More and more I'm fascinated by this 'ocean' of forces, waves, pressure points
and voids that make something like shenzen pop and become a gravity center.
Until it's not. And the pole will shift somewhere else. I don't know if
there's a name for this, if it's just plain history. Or system theory.. but
I'd love to read more about it.

~~~
jacobolus
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World-
systems_theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World-systems_theory) is one
subdiscipline studied by a group of (mostly Marxist) historians/political
theorists, which might be relevant to your interest here.

~~~
agumonkey
Pretty cool. Reminds me that I was told about a French history scholar that
tried to spread a more 'fluid dynamic' view on history. I cannot recall his
name for my life which makes me even sadder.

~~~
bobwaycott
I don't suppose it would have been one of the _Annales_ historians, would it?
There are far too many participants to hazard a guess, but the notable leaders
of the different generations of _Annales_ historians would be Febvre, Braudel,
Ladurie, and Chartier.

~~~
agumonkey
It may be one of the latest generations, but no name clicks. All I remember is
a term he coined that was close to fluid dynamics or derivative history
(fields and waves, flows, you get the idea).

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danblick
I don't buy it. Look at Facebook. It was completely tasteless; they made it
big by showing up with the right dumb idea at the right time. The article
talks about Zuck studying the past in 2014. That was a long time after he'd
made his billions.

(Edit: This article is really about the question, "Why did Silicon Valley
happen in the first place, and why has it remained at the epicenter of the
global tech economy for so long?". I think that's an interesting topic, I just
disagree with the claim in the introduction.)

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daodedickinson
I hope AIs inherit the earth from us soon so the world can have well-read
beings again.

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amar-singh
Hi,

Perfectly said "To invent the future, You must understand the past". We can
relate it to analytics. Every company needs to analyse tehir performance in
all marketing campaigns also with customer feedback to come up with new and
best strategies to make their product itself a brand.

~~~
jsloss
True. But rarely do they analyze their way to innovation ...

Analysis leads to improvement. Improvement is not necessarily innovation.

~~~
NetHuntCRM
It's more about the evolution of ideas. Can we say that an automobile is an
innovation or is it just an improved carriage? So, probably, analyzing what
works and how it can be improved can lead to drastic changes in concept.

