
Teen birth rate hits all-time low, led by 50% decline among Hispanics and blacks - BinaryIdiot
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2016/04/28/teen-birth-rate-hits-all-time-low-led-by-50-percent-decline-among-hispanics-and-blacks/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_teen-births-115pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
======
Aelinsaar
"The first is the most important and may be obvious: Today's teens enjoy
better access to contraception and more convenient contraception than their
predecessors, and more of them are taking advantage of innovations like long-
acting injectable and implantable methods that can last years over a daily
birth control pill. But the second cause is something that goes against the
conventional wisdom. It's that teens -- despite their portrayal in popular TV
and movies as uninhibited and acting only on hormones -- are having less sex."

That's interesting, but lets just take a long look at the FIRST cause, which
has come at the cost of endless political fights and only exists through that
constant fighting. There are still a LOT of people who think that access to
birth control is the _problem_.

~~~
gozur88
How much actual _evidence_ is there that this has anything to do with
contraception? I'm getting old now, and from what I can tell contraception was
just as available when I was a teen as it is now.

~~~
bobbytherobot
There is _more_ contraception options now available to teens. I know for a
fact that IUDs were not being given to teens a decade ago, they were barely
just being given to adult women in the U.S. Access to the Morning After pill
has greatly increased for everyone. Then you have options like Depo-Provera.

On top of that, the stigma around using the pill decreases all the time.
Parents are willing to get the pill for their daughters.

There is more access for contraception for women. Sadly no real changes for
men. Although now you buy condoms online which reduces the stigma many young
people have about buying them in person.

~~~
mleonhard
Vasalgel, an excellent contraceptive for men is slowly making its way through
the FDA's testing process:
[https://www.parsemusfoundation.org/projects/vasalgel/](https://www.parsemusfoundation.org/projects/vasalgel/)

~~~
pygy_
Not sure why you're getting downvotes. From what I've read it is as effective
as vasectomy, but fully reversible.

~~~
LesZedCB
Their latest update was a survey saying that the reversibility trials were
proving less successful in their baboon studies after great success in
previous studies. They sent out a survey asking for comments on the importance
of reversibility about a month ago.

From the email:

> A key goal for the first Vasalgel studies, in addition to demonstrating the
> contraceptive's safety and effectiveness, was to establish its
> reversibility. Vasalgel was reversible after a year in rabbits, but as we've
> reported, reversibility has so far been elusive in large-animal studies.

> We suspect we simply haven't found a suitable large-animal model; for
> example the baboon vas deferens is smaller and more fragile than that of the
> human. We're cautiously optimistic that everything will be much easier in
> human trials, because the human vas is larger and sturdier. And we're hard
> at work trying some other things too. But in the meantime, the first
> clinical trial will be designed to include just men who aren't counting on
> reversibility, while we sort out those issues.

> Thousands of people would like to be in the first trial, but there are only
> a few spots. And the researcher will have to pick local men who are the best
> candidates and want vasectomy anyway. So we're trying to keep everybody's
> focus on the ultimate prize: getting Vasalgel to market, with availability
> to ALL. If trials go well, then the sky's the limit: we'll seek approvals to
> bring Vasalgel to market, starting in the U.S., E.U., and Canada... and
> expanding from there.

------
finch_
I'm surprised no one has brought up lead - childhood lead exposure leads to
more rash behavior, and the drop in teen pregnancy starts roughly when the
first children who were born after the removal of lead from gasoline and paint
started would have become teenagers.

[http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/02/unleaded-
gasol...](http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/02/unleaded-gasoline-and-
teen-pregnancy)

~~~
Alex3917
For what it's worth, here is the actual chart with blood lead levels:

[https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-10/documents...](https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-10/documents/biomonitoring-
lead-data.pdf)

IIRC the working draft of that report had a more detailed chart, but I don't
see it in the final version for whatever reason.

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ryanmarsh
Delaying coitus long enough to consider the economic consequences of an
unwanted pregnancy is some pretty hard-core adulting. If I remember anything
about that age it was the manic ache to fuck. No, I'm pretty sure access to
porn has something to do with it.

"widespread availability of broadband Internet"

LOL

~~~
mirimir
Good point. Porn for lots of boys, and celibacy for lots of girls. But hey,
maybe they'll just grow out of it. My generation eventually grew out of
promiscuity. Or maybe "aged out" is more accurate ;) HIV was a huge bring-
down, too :(

~~~
ryanmarsh
Girls look at porn. Times have changed man.

~~~
astrodust
I read about a study where they were trying to see if there were differences
between people who viewed internet porn and people who didn't, yet on the
university campus they could not find a single person in their surveying who
hadn't viewed porn at least once.

~~~
pavel_lishin
I think the joke goes that there are two kinds of people: those who look at
porn, and those who lie about it.

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bko
Despite teenagers having mobile unrestricted access to all sorts of supposedly
corrupting media available to them at all times, they still make rational
decisions regarding their bodies. This is very encouraging to all those that
value freedom.

~~~
rustynails
This theory doesn't make sense (and I read three articles that repeat what you
say).

If you use contraception, you won't have pregnancy. So why are the rates down?
Health? Then why are 25% of kids obese (I looked up those figures).

I can only assume that technology has created more social isolation.

~~~
JacksonGariety
> technology has created more social isolation

This. If you think that technology has done a good job of informing teens
about the risks of pregnancy and the importance of contraception, you are
probably being far too optimistic in the face of a dire situation (i.e. mass
estrangement).

~~~
icanhackit
> a dire situation (i.e. mass estrangement)

I don't know - could there be some observation bias given the forum we're
discussing this in? It also undermines digital relationships which have their
own positives aspects. Here we are having a civil conversation about an
important topic without having to commit to meeting at a certain time or place
or without knowing what shared interests we have.

The internet can act as a social lubricant of sorts which is valuable. The
legacy social lubricant is alcohol.

~~~
eric_h
> The internet can act as a social lubricant of sorts which is valuable. The
> legacy social lubricant is alcohol.

That is a very interesting point, though I suspect we'll never actually be
able to retire that legacy. If we do, I think it'll take at least a century.

Edit: honestly I think the social lubricant is actually pseudonymity,
empowered by the network.

~~~
JacksonGariety
> honestly I think the social lubricant is actually pseudonymity, empowered by
> the network.

Conversely, intoxication is its own kind of real-life pseudonymity! :-)

------
marchenko
Teenagers now engage in more virtual interaction over social media, and the
number of teens with driving licenses has decreased dramatically over the same
period - I think the scope of their social interaction has increased, but they
have significantly less physical privacy. They spend more of their time in
contexts where adult monitoring is possible. I also think the availability of
porn and the increased pressure to adopt a low-time-preference mindset also
alters the risk/reward calculus of potentially procreative sex. With the
disappearance of much well-paid blue-collar work, both in reality and the
public consciousness, derailing the fast track to college is much more costly
than it was in the past. On a more speculative note, I can't help but wonder
what the effect of more widespread hormonal contraception has been on female
sexual desire, and maybe even on the prevalence of environmental estrogens
potentially affecting males.

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maxander
The thing that will save the world from overpopulation- the internet. Both as
a source of information, and perhaps as a way of abstracting social
interactions that otherwise would have more opportunity to be acted out in
sweatier ways.

~~~
pjdemers
A while back I saw some study said that said women who grow up with a TV in
the house have on average, 1 less child than their mother. And this was
holding even as we go into the 3rd generation of kids with TVs at home. The
Internet, and especially mobile Internet, are like TV * 5. So maybe this is
right.

~~~
andyjohnson0
There is a theory that, in Brazil, the popularity of telenovelas (ie soaps)
have directly caused a decrease in the number of children that women choose to
have [1]. Quote:

 _" The secret sauce of influence is the telenovela's subtle promotion of
extravagant materialism by means of a smaller family as opposed to the
relative poverty of large families. It's also had the effect of promoting
urban lifestyles."_

I don't know how directly relevant this is to teenage pregnancy, but there
does seem to be evidence for media consumption affecting reproductive
outcomes.

[1]
[http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/06/how...](http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/06/how-
brazilian-soap-operas-can-save-the-world/259139/)

------
mirimir
> Veronica Gomez-Lobo, director of pediatric gynecology at Children’s National
> Medical Center, said the trend of abstinence has been mostly among younger
> teens rather than older ones. While there's not good data on why this is
> happening, she thinks of it as a “contagion” factor. So many teens are
> waiting to have sex, she suggests, that the peer pressure goes the opposite
> way than it might have in the past.

OK, so the interesting question is whether the birth rate for this cohort will
increase as they get older. Hypothesis: Sex has become unworkable for many
young people, and they will just opt out of reproduction. In recent decades,
birth rates have dropped in many Western European countries, Russia, Japan,
etc. The reasons have been diverse. Too many other options. Social disruption.
Whatever. But time will tell ...

------
koolba
> But the second cause is something that goes against the conventional wisdom.
> It's that teens -- despite their portrayal in popular TV and movies as
> uninhibited and acting only on hormones -- _are having less sex_.

Could rising childhood obesity be contributing to this as well?

~~~
vox_mollis
Plausible. The recent advent of ready, instant, and varied access to video
simulation of sex is also plausible.

Both are unpopular hypotheses, however, because all bodies are beautiful and
sex positive porn has zero externalities.

~~~
morgante
> sex positive porn has zero externalities

Who claims porn has zero externalities?

Conservatives claim it somehow has negative externalities while I'll happily
claim it has positive externalities (happiness, less rape, less pregnancy,
etc.).

------
dpweb
As a teenager in the 80s, (as a joke) tried to buy condoms. Guy wouldn't sell
them to me said I was too young.

~~~
protomyth
I take it that the gas station bathroom didn't have them? In ND, every gas
station seemed to have had the same condom dispenser. I've always wondered
what company was responsible for them and who stocked them.

~~~
coldpie
Almost certainly the gas station itself maintained them. Just buy a dispenser,
buy condoms, have an employee fill dispenser when you're cleaning the toilets
anyway, make profit. You'll get some sales from people too embarrassed (or in
a hurry) to bring condoms up to a cashier.

~~~
protomyth
Funny thing is I don't remember them ever selling them in the gas station
itself. I'm not so sure it wasn't the same model as Coke/Pepsi showing up and
refilling the machines.

------
throwawaybookst
As of this post, three of the 20 comments on this story conjecture that
obesity plays some role, and a full _half_ of the comments are on subthreads
discussing this hypothesis.

Interesting because I've never heard this hypothesis before and other online
discussion of this article does not mention obesity.

~~~
nsxwolf
It seems a little silly to me. Especially because when we talk about obesity,
most people visualize morbid obesity. There are plenty of textbook definition
"obese" people who can still attract mates.

~~~
esaym
I think the point is that obesity causes infertility....

------
gozur88
I wonder how big a role obesity plays in all of this. It may be that teens are
having less sex because so many of them have effectively taken themselves out
of the sexual marketplace.

~~~
orky56
Are you referring to obesity in terms of attractiveness or ability to
conceive?

~~~
gozur88
I was just thinking in terms of attractiveness. Kids today have an unlimited
supply of videos of beautiful people having sex. Not only are their
expectations rising, but their choice of attractive mates is falling.

~~~
nsxwolf
So they'd rather just watch porn than lower their expectations and have some
sort of sex?

~~~
gozur88
It's not so much that they'd rather watch porn. It's that porn sets their
expectations regarding what sex is and with whom they expect to have sex.

If I'm a 4 and I won't settle for less than an 7 (which is a step down from
what porn is teaching me about averages), it's likely I'm not going to father
many children.

~~~
nsxwolf
If you're a 14 year old boy wouldn't you go for pretty much anything you could
get?

~~~
gozur88
Yep, that was the case for me. But two things: One, it's not the boys who
decide when sex happens, for the most part, and two, the amount of effort a
boy (or a man) is willing to put into wooing a woman depends in some part on
how attractive she is to him.

------
personjerry
Isn't it typically "teen pregnancy" rather than "teen birth"? Is the nuance
between pregnancy and birth significant?

Also, this wording can seem confusing (i.e. you can't give birth to a teen!).

~~~
tetrep
Births are what matter, as a pregnant teen can get an abortion, resulting in
skewed statistics if you're trying to figure out how many teens are having
babies, which (imo) is the thing society should actually care about, as
unready parents tend to be a drain on collective/social resources.

~~~
gozur88
>Births are what matter, as a pregnant teen can get an abortion, resulting in
skewed statistics if you're trying to figure out how many teens are having
babies...

That's true, but if your argument is the lower number of births is due to
widespread availability of contraception, you have to address pregnancy and
not just births.

~~~
Larrikin
Access to abortions is just as important as access to contraceptives.

~~~
gozur88
Important for what?

------
blisterpeanuts
This article doesn't mention the religious communities where young people
commonly marry and start having children before age 20.

A friend of mine grew up in one such fundamentalist community in rural Iowa;
she married at 20, but some of her peers were already moms by that age. I
wonder whether they include this type of parent in the statistics, or are they
only talking about unwed mothers here?

There seem to be a lot of rural counties in the first quintile of teenage
pregnancy, and I venture to guess that some of them, the ones not in large
cities or general urban areas, are traditional or fundamentalist communities
where teenage girls often marry.

Unfortunately, our socio-economic system (outside these specialized
communities) is just not set up to accommodate pregnancy at the age when we
are most fertile. It's too bad, given how many of us are delaying having
children until our 30s, even 40s, and running into all sorts of issues for
both the mom and the child; I have personal experience in this.

Anyway, this looks like a good trend, that kids are either finally "getting
it" or else they're simply too distracted by technological toys to be fooling
around like they used to!

~~~
renox
> Unfortunately, our socio-economic system (outside these specialized
> communities) is just not set up to accommodate pregnancy at the age when we
> are most fertile. It's too bad[cut]

I'm not so sure: I feel like I wouldn't have been mature enough to raise
children correctly in my twenties.. IMHO the ideal age for raising children is
your 30s: not only you're mature and young enough but if your parents had you
in their 30s, they can also help raising the children especially if they just
retired: win-win.

~~~
blisterpeanuts
The ideal age for raising children probably is the 30s. In traditional
societies, the grandparents had a large role in child rearing. It makes sense;
the young'uns are fertile, strong and energetic; perfect age to bear children.
The oldsters are well qualified to teach and provide guidance.

I think we've lost something, a certain quality of life, as a result of the
dispersal of families. 100 years ago, it was common in both rural and urban
America for extended families to be under the same roof or at least nearby.

Now, kids move away, sometimes very far away, wait until their 30s to have
kids, when the grandparents are getting too old and tired to help (except
maybe financially) and the kids miss out on the rich multigenerational
experience that was how people transmitted their wisdom, experience, and
traditions.

------
hokuriku
Counties where abstinence-only sex ed is common lead in teen birth rates.

It's kind of like that (public) high school in the Midessa region of West
Texas, the one that had an abstinence only sex-ed policy and a chlamydia
outbreak. Or Mike Pence shutting down Planned Parenthood clinics in rural
Indiana which led to an HIV outbreak (and Pence having to sign a needle
exchange bill to limit the spread of HIV).

------
milesf
Wow. If you treat teenagers like the young adults that they are, and not talk
down to them like children but rather give them solid information, they rise
to the challenge of taking personal responsibility for their lives.

Whodathunk? ;)

~~~
blue_dinner
Teenagers still don't have the wisdom or experience of someone in their 30s
and I would hardly call them 'young adults'.

I knew so many kids that had parents that would treat them like adults..and
they still made all of the stupid mistakes as the rest of us.

It's most likely a culture change. So many teenagers are becoming non-social
and filling their time with the phone rather than sex.

~~~
milesf
People rise to the level of expectations placed on them. The concept of
adolescence is a relatively new invention. For most of human history there has
been childhood, adulthood, and old age.

------
BurningFrog
Lot of guesswork in the text. I'll add my own.

The fall in this statistic looks quite similar to the fall in crime. Both are
reckless shortsighted behavior, and I'd bet there is a common cause.

~~~
losteric
Didn't freakonomics write about the reverse relationship? Contraceptives
helped reduce unwanted pregnancies... unwanted pregnancies turn in to unwanted
babies/children that eventually have a higher probability of turning into
criminals.

~~~
slv77
Other studies later refuted it and attributed the drop in violent crime to
phasing out of leaded gasoline.

~~~
TorKlingberg
The lead hypothesis is really interesting and certainly plausible, but I don't
think it's been proven. I would like something more substantial than "the
graphs look similar".

~~~
slv77
The paper based the freakenomics study was based on only looked at US data but
crime was dropping in the 90's globally. A global drop in crime would be hard
to explain based on US policy changes with regards to abortion while lead was
removed globally at different times.

[http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-27067615](http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-27067615)

The abortion hypothesis was also correlation study (i.e. These graphs look
similar) but didn't control for leaded gasoline. Also later studies failed to
find more direct links such as higher rates of abortion in high crime areas
that would explain the magnitude of the drop.

A later study by the author of the paper suggesting lead as the driver of
violent crime did a follow up study that incorporated lead, abortion and other
variables found that lead was the dominant contributor and abortion a
secondary contributor.

[http://www.nber.org/digest/may08/w13097.html](http://www.nber.org/digest/may08/w13097.html)

------
erroneousfunk
I haven't seen this one mentioned yet, but the trend may also be due in part
to choices the women are making about whether or not they want children. Most
of the comments assumed that all of these pregnancies were "accidents" to
begin with, but if you're a teenage girl, living in poverty, what kind of role
models do you see, and how might you envision your own future and goals? Just
like teenagers in some places can/could only have a life of their own by
getting married, it is and was very common for other teenagers in some
cultures to see having a baby as the only way out of their current situation,
as a way to have a better life, as a necessary step for building a life with
and getting support from a romantic partner, as a way to have more importance
or influence in their community, and add meaning to their own lives.

Anecdotally, I knew a few women in high school who got pregnant, and it seemed
to add a great deal of excitement and hope for their future, rather than the
other way around. If you have nothing going for you, having a kid can seem
like a good plan.

If you start giving people other options, other things to work for, and
exposing them to other cultures, they might find better alternatives. Heck,
this whole thing might still be caused by the Internet! But not for the
reasons some other people said...

------
afarrell
I wonder how much lower rates of in-person interaction is a factor here.

------
kazinator
> _widespread availability of broadband Internet_

Right; once Facebook figures out how you can make babies while you're all
alone, staring at your mobile device, that rate might be reversed.

------
ksec
Or may be in today's world many cant even economically afford to rise a child?

~~~
grahamburger
If that were enough to keep anyone from having sex we'd all have died off long
ago :)

------
ommunist
Must be a correllation with smartphones proliferation in the same strata, and
increased accessibility of pornsites.

------
iamleppert
What about the fact that anal sex is now less-taboo than it used to be? Most
of my straight friends are having it these days. I can only imagine what teens
are doing with their backdoors these days.

Anal sex has got to be the best form of contraception, although it definitely
isn't "safe".

------
colmvp
I like how they don't even bother mentioning Asian birthrates.

~~~
stephengillie
Japan's replacement rate is a worrying 1.9 children per couple.

------
benbou09
... in the US

------
Hbthegreat
I guess the phenomenon of netflix and chill. Is more like "netflix and safe-
chill". Either that or people are taking it too literally and actually
chilling.

