
India will overtake the US economy by 2030 - alphagrep12345
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/01/india-will-overtake-the-us-economy-by-2030/
======
cromwellian
As Andrew Yang has pointed out, GDP is a pretty poor measurement, and at least
in China's case, not transparent and most likely inflated by localities self-
reporting to meet central government targets.

GDP is proportional to population, so if you have a larger population, your
GDP can be proportionately larger. The question is, what's GDP per capita or
GDP per capita PPP? China per capita GDP is 1/7th-1/8th of the US, and India
per capita GDP is 1/30th of the US, will they make it up in 10 years? China
could, if they can keep up their growth and not experience a major recession
or depression, which seems unlikely.

~~~
outlace
But if current dominant country A has GDP of 100 units and rival country B is
poised to get to 150 units, then won't country B be able to wield more
economic power than country A even though country B's GDP/person is lower?

It's sort of like a company that has 100 units of revenue and 20 units of
costs versus a company with 150 units of revenue and 90 units of cost, the one
with greater revenue may still have more economic power (e.g. ability to
leverage suppliers, etc) despite having lower profit margin.

~~~
benj111
Agreed, if you want some idea of quality of life, GDP probably isn't the best.

If you want to measure who has the most resources either to potentially trade
with them, or decide if you have the resources to fight them, GDP becomes more
useful.

~~~
gzeus
If you look at it this way, there is no real measure to see which is a better
place to live.

The only thing one can agree from this article is that some countries are
expected to grow at a higher rate than others only due to a larger population.
I think this only makes sense if everyone is educated and the unemployment
rate is low.

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pacala
Wildly speculative. Turkey is predicted to have 9.1 [some unit], while Germany
6.8 [some unit]. There are two countries with similar demographic profiles,
with Germany having 5x the [nominal] GDP of Turkey today. Short of nuclear war
or an asteroid landing in Ruhrgebiet, it's hard to imagine what would lead to
Turkey's economy overtaking Germany's in 11 years.

PS. "nominal GDP using purchasing power parity exchange rates" is nonsense.
Not sure if the error lies with the journalist or with the source.

~~~
bdod6
A lot of that speculative growth comes from Turkey's comparatively younger
population (hence more productive hours worked each day), and their continued
population growth. Germany's demographics are sliding the other way, with an
aging and stagnating population.

~~~
pacala
Everything you said applies _today_ to the demographic pyramids of the
respective 2 countries, with only an 11 years delta. And yet Germany has 5x
the GDP.

[https://www.populationpyramid.net/turkey/2019/](https://www.populationpyramid.net/turkey/2019/)

[https://www.populationpyramid.net/turkey/2030/](https://www.populationpyramid.net/turkey/2030/)

[https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2019/](https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2019/)

[https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2030/](https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2030/)

~~~
changchuming
Germany had 10x the GDP of Turkey twenty years ago. That just proves that
Turkey has caught up a lot. Demographics take a long time to have an effect on
GDP, they're just forecasting that the tipping point is 2030.

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bretpiatt
In PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) they will, in real dollars China is
forecasted to but India won't be close. As a US based tech company my
customers pay me in real dollars so we use real vs. PPP for our market size
analysis.

[https://www.statista.com/statistics/271724/forecast-for-
the-...](https://www.statista.com/statistics/271724/forecast-for-the-
countries-with-the-highest-gross-domestic-product-gdp-in-2030/)

In real dollars the US ($19T) still has a substantial lead on China ($12T)
today so the 2030 forecasts assume continued substantial growth for China.

[https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.cd?year_hig...](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.cd?year_high_desc=true)

~~~
JumpCrisscross
> _As a US based tech company my customers pay me in real dollars_

Transactions occur in nominal dollars. “Real” is an adjustment made so nominal
figures at different points in time can be compared.

~~~
bretpiatt
I suppose we could debate about if I'm paid in real or nominal dollars for my
tech I sell to folks. Today I'm paid in nominal dollars, over my 10 years of
history it's real ones.

The core point is I'm not paid in PPP dollars from India with a 17/1 PPP
adjustment over the US.

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_versus_nominal_value_(e...](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_versus_nominal_value_\(economics\))

[https://data.oecd.org/conversion/purchasing-power-
parities-p...](https://data.oecd.org/conversion/purchasing-power-parities-
ppp.htm)

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gandhium
Maybe they will or maybe not.

I can remember similar predictions about Japan and... let's say they didn't
make it.

~~~
aaaaaaaaaaab
Why was this comment downvoted to death?

Remember the huge geisha advert in the 1982 Blade Runner? People were
extrapolating from decades of Japanese economic growth, and thought that Japan
will leave everyone behind...

~~~
dragontamer
You don't even need to enter the realm of sci fi actually.

"Gung Ho" (1986) and "Die Hard" (1988) both feature Japanese corporate
overlords doing things as core elements of the plot. Not necessarily evil, its
just kinda assumed that Japan would take over large parts of even the US
Economy back then.

Japan's "economic miracle", although it was cut short by the 1990s, was an
incredible rise. Japan is still one of the major world economic powers, in
large part due to its humongous growth.

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dnene
This article is somewhat misleading. Although the image caption says Nominal
GDP, the bottom of the image says the GDP is in PPP terms.

AFAIK the most optimistic estimates make India the second largest economy in
nominal terms measured by exchange rate no earlier than 2050.

India is expected to be growing pretty fast. But nowhere close to the rate
which would be needed for this to be true in currency exchange rate terms. PPP
terms really doesn't mean much.

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puranjay
I know I'm in the minority, but in terms of household income, most of my peers
are already at American levels in absolute dollar figures (> $85-100k) here in
India.

I've also found that US-based clients are far less skeptical of my skills than
they used to be half a decade ago, and that they are also willing to pay US
rates for quality work (as opposed to expecting third world rates)

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JoshTko
Just came back from India and I would easily bet against India overtaking the
US by 2030. It took me 45 min to travel 3km during rush hour.

~~~
olcor
Ha! I had a similar experience in the valley (mountain view) during an
interview. Took me 15 minutes more, and I got late for my first round.

Driving in NYC is out of the question any time of day.

~~~
vkou
Fortunately, you can get around NYC reasonably quickly without driving.

~~~
hiyer
Same applies to lots of cities in India as well, like Delhi, Mumbai and
Chennai.

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screye
Is this the new superpower 2020?

I have heard the same horn be tooted in India over the last 2 decades, and
India is no closer to the that goal than it was 2 decades ago.

The problems India faces can't be solved in 20 years. 1 generation for that is
too little.

I do however think that India will undergo a massive push ahead the second we
have a few cities where expats can return to without incurring a major loss in
QOL or effective wages.

~~~
olcor
> where expats can return to without incurring a major loss in QOL or
> effective wages.

I’m moving back to India soon (NYC -> Mumbai). My quality of life will likely
increase; wages will not even be close (savings rate might be the same
though). Which cities are on your mind for this?

~~~
anticodon
Quality of life is not only income. It's also infrastructure, environment,
many other things. I had only briefly visited Mumbai, but visited many big
cities in India. They're extremely noisy, congested, air quality is poor.
Power and Internet outages are frequent. There no parks in most Asian cities
so if you're tired and want to relax in a quiet place under the trees you
should drive for hours out of the city.

~~~
olcor
Exactly; quality of life isn't income (if that was the case, I wouldn't be
bothering to move). It's all you say; it's also food you're used to, the
people around you, family ties, the freedom to have multiple income streams
without your visa blocking you, and also the lack of worry that you'll be
thrown out of the country.

There is a tradeoff I am making, and weirdly India is better off in it. I will
miss the good air and the incredible work environment in the States, but apart
from that, Mumbai can offer everything else (not many power outages from what
I know, I grew up there), and quite frankly, I like the bustle.

~~~
anticodon
Fully agree.

I also hate obtaining visas and other bureaucratic issues, worrying if you'll
obtain the visa next year, not being able to speak your own language when you
want to relax and hang up with the friends, etc.

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thorwasdfasdf
The article didn't go into much detail about how all this was calculated out.
I don't think they took into account gov debt. that can be a huge factor.
Japan for instance has not had any increase in GDP over the last 25 years and
that doesn't look like it's going to change. So I don't see how their gdp can
jump from 4.8T to 7.2T in just 11 years!

Japan is currently at 230% and it weighing very heavily along with their aging
population. Their GDP hasn't been increasing at all in the last 25 years. The
US is heading in the same direction with budget deficit of 4% every year
whilst only growing 3.3% a year. US interest payments are expected to reach
25% of federal spending in 2028 if we continue with our current deficits. At
that point, unfortunately US growth will be a complete standstill, for decades
to come :(

Indonesia is an interesting one to watch, i keep forgetting how much people
are in that country!

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baybal2
This is a often reappearing topic, and to some people it sounds like the end
of the world, but that's just too sensationalistic.

Well, even when it happens, then what?

China will still be poorer per capita if it reaches parity in net GDP, and
beside the symbolic change in the modulus of GDP gap, nothing will change.

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baron816
They’re expecting Russia’s GDP to more than quadruple over 10 years? Not
likely.

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bobbydreamer
Don't know about china. India will overtake in population maybe but definitely
not in other categories( education, innovation, discipline, military, health,
agriculture, infrastructure). In 2001-2005 the story was about 2020. In
another 10 years no way, in the present scenario in 100 years also no way.

Why law & politics ? It's pay per use.

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DeonPenny
Anyone do the math behind this the Pe^rt math. It would take if the US grew at
2% china would need to grow 6% YoY. Anyone believe that China will still grow
at 10% in 10 years. Even with a economy that treats GDP at a input and not a
output

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reversengineer
PPP is and always will be a garbage metric. Don't compare my Pepperidge Farm
15-Grain bread, sold for $3 a loaf at the supermarket with steamed buns sold
for ￥1 each on the street.

~~~
asark
I want a "good cheese, good wine, good bread" price comparison metric. By that
measure, my money in the US only goes like 1/2-1/3 as far as the same amount
in France, since it takes about 2-3x the money to consistently match the
quality of their bog-standard stuff in those categories. Usually a good bit of
travel time, too, in the case of bread. :-(

[EDIT] actually 3x might be low on the bread. 3.5-4x, probably, around here,
to get a baguette that's on par with your average Parisian one, for instance.
You don't even hit "kinda OK" until $4 or so, and you're still not guaranteed
to be getting something that tastes like a baguette at all, let alone a decent
one, at that price. Croissants too. I've had exactly one in my city that was
close to the real thing and it was crazy expensive. They burnt it, though. So
close, yet so far.

~~~
Tade0
I think this is more related to the respective climates and local tastes than
anything else.

For example I can't for the life of me find any good potatoes, apples or bread
in Italy - or anything even remotely sour that isn't wine - apparently it's
not something the locals particularly enjoy.

~~~
pibi
Really? Not apples or bread? We have valleys known only for their unique
apples, like the Mela Renetta from Friuli. Don't let me started talking about
the apples from Trentino. So, maybe you are talking about apples in the south
of Italy. About bread: I see where you are coming from, best breads I eaten
are coming from bakeries on the mountains. They just taste so good. But
please, remember that bread in Italy is just a support for the main tastes,
like the olive oil.

~~~
Tade0
I've only ever been to the north and what I found is that leavened bread is
not a thing there.

As for apples: they're mostly okay but nothing special comparing to the
varieties found around the Baltic sea.

Case in point: you can't expect to just walk into any store and find apples
suitable for apple pie. Also apple juice exists in one variety and is fairly
hard to find.

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danschumann
Unless we go mine some asteroids or something.

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point78
Not hard to do when you don't respect the intellectual property of anyone and
close off your market

~~~
melling
At some point I would think companies need to do their own R&D if they want to
compete globally.

For example, if China wants to lead the world in AI by 2025, they need the
best people doing research.

~~~
screye
Well, that's the one area where they do have top talent in.

Too conferences like CVPR are overwhelmingly Chinese and a Tshingua and Peking
are world leaders in AI.

China is still lagging far behind in other areas, but they certainly haven't
dropped the ball when it comes to AI.

