
In Australia, Coal Remains King - pseudolus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-05-07/in-australia-coal-remains-king-despite-climate-fears
======
schappim
>> This might be about to change as Australia has an election due in the next
few week.

Unfortunately, the opposition is also backed by the CFMEU (Construction,
Forestry, Maritime, Mining and Energy Union) which includes the Mining &
Energy workers.

As such, the opposition isn't likely to take action that threatens the jobs of
union members.

The other thing to remember is that minerals dwarf all other parts of the
Australian economy. Turning off coal will tank the Australian economy, this
represents a real challenge for any prospective government.

We've already seen what happened to the Australian dollar when China's
northern port of Dalian banned imports of Australian coal and will cap overall
coal imports from all sources for 2019 at 12 million tonnes.

Australia rapidly needs to grow other industries. An obvious place to start
would be to recreate the manufacturing industries that have all but been
destroyed[1].

[1] Written as someone with an electronics manufacturing business in
Australia.

~~~
Arnt
There's one thing I'm wondering about... I understand that the coal-friendly
parties don't want to restrict mining. But what are they saying about export
and demand and markets and all that?

Coal has few friends on the buyer side. There seems to be real chance that the
demand for Australian coal drops by >50% in the next few years. What are the
coal-friendly parties in Australia saying about that?

~~~
mikemotherwell
> Coal has few friends on the buyer side

Which type: metallurgic (used to make steel) or thermal (for power)?

Metallurgic coal is the more expensive, loved kind (as you need it to make
buildings) and that is what Australia produces, at ~40% of total exports by
volume (not sure via value).
[https://minerals.org.au/sites/default/files/181012%20Commodi...](https://minerals.org.au/sites/default/files/181012%20Commodity%20Insights%20Met%20Coal%20Report.pdf)
BTW: that is 3X the next biggest metallurgic coal exporter (the USA).

> There seems to be real chance that the demand for Australian coal drops by
> >50% in the next few years

Where are you getting that figure from? Coking coal looks pretty solidly in
growth from what I know.

~~~
Arnt
I base that on a combination of two assumptions:

1\. Coal is used for for generating electricity because it's the cheapest. Its
buyers aren't loyal friends, its buyers want the cheapest.

2\. The price for new wind/solar plants is dropping quickly, and if that goes
on at the same rate as recently, then at some point in the next few years,
building new wind/solar plants becomes a cheaper source of electricity than
operating existing coal-fired plants.

The price might not go on dropping, but I think there's a real chance it does,
and if it does drop far enough and coal's customers actually want the
cheapest, then one of the two key markets for coal withers as fast as
customers can switch.

EDIT: That ">50%" might be high. I glanced at wikipedia: "About 75% of coal
mined in Australia is exported […] and of the balance most is used in
electricity generation" and: "Coking coal generated A$22.4 billion of export
revenue in 2012/13 financial year with thermal coal bringing in A$16.1
billion". But I mixed up value and volume.

------
jussij
This might be about to change as Australia has an election due in the next few
week.

The current government is very much pro-coal and have spent the last six years
working hard to hinder the renewable sector.

The opposition is much more renewable friendly.

The polls suggest there is a growing mood in the community for action on
climate change, which might see the current government removed. Time will
tell.

However if the current government do manage to hang on then Australia's love
of coal will definitely continue for at least the next three years.

~~~
barongrounds
The opposition has spent the last several years pushing the Adani mine through
in Queensland.

------
bigiain
Same day: [https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-09/uk-coal-free-
week/110...](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-09/uk-coal-free-
week/11095220)

"Britain records first coal-free week since the Victorian era, thanks to gas,
nuclear power and renewables"

(Admittedly, that was 56.7% natural gas, so not nearly as renewable as I'd
like...)

~~~
azinman2
Natural gas is a much less dirty source at least.

~~~
erdewit
Right, two thirds of the energy of natural gas comes from the hydrogen atoms
which, when burned with oxygen, produce water.

On the other hand burning "beautiful, clean coal" only yields CO2 and a bit of
SO2.

~~~
mrob
>two thirds of the energy of natural gas comes from the hydrogen atoms which,
when burned with oxygen, produce water

Natural gas, being mostly methane, has the highest proportion of hydrogen of
any fossil fuel, but it still emits at least 50% of the CO2 of coal for the
same energy production:

[https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=73&t=11](https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=73&t=11)

------
holografix
Australia has all the “primary ingredients” for a world class renewable energy
industry: highly educated population, abundant sun and wind and a history of
technology innovation (wifi for starters).

Why oh why are we not investing more in the manufacturing of renewable energy
products and services?

~~~
smallstepforman
Coal is also used to manufacture steel ...

~~~
adrianN
About 15% of hard coal is used for steel, i.e. we could reduce coal production
by at least 85%.

------
jazzabeanie
“Coal is abundant worldwide so if Australia doesn’t supply it, somewhere else
will, but it will be of a lesser quality.”

If this is true then the only reason not to approve the coal mine from a CO2
perspective is to increase the cost of coal, thereby making renewables more
attractive. You can effectively accomplish the same thing with taxes.

Australia should tax the mine as much as it can without pushing it off shore,
and focus on reducing its own carbon emissions.

~~~
taneq
I believe a fair portion of Australian coal is metallurgical coal, used for
steelmaking, and so isn't really substitutable with renewables.

~~~
jussij
Australia exports vast amounts of both coking (i.e. steelmaking) and thermal
(i.e. electricity) coal.

The _coal fight_ currently going on here in Australia is over the new Adani
mine which is a thermal coal mine.

~~~
taneq
Huh, I was basing my statement on a conversation I had a couple of weeks ago
with a geologist who works in the industry, and said it was producing
metallurgical coal. That'll teach me not to cross-check my sources...

------
aoner
There's a great profile on Australia’s complex climate politics and rising
fossil fuel exports made by carbonbrief: [https://www.carbonbrief.org/the-
carbon-brief-profile-austral...](https://www.carbonbrief.org/the-carbon-brief-
profile-australia) Highly recommended

 _Australia had the world’s 15th largest greenhouse gas emissions in 2015 and
its citizens’ per-capita contribution is around three times the global
average.

It is the world’s second largest coal exporter and recently became the top
exporter of liquified natural gas (LNG). Its electricity system remains
heavily reliant on coal, despite ramping up the use of gas and renewables,
especially rooftop solar.

It is also highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including
extreme heat, drought, bushfires and agricultural impacts.

Based on its current trajectory, Australia is off track on its international
pledge to cut emissions 26-28% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels._

------
simcox90
This is largely because our politicians have been corrupted through generous
donations, aka, bribes. The greens are looking to reform the legalities of
those donations for this very reason.

~~~
ozmaverick72
I agree that the coal industry does have a big influence over both parties.
I'm sure donations do have a big influence but I think there is also the fact
that coal mining does contribute a significant amount to the economy as
outlined in the article. Also labour is influenced by the fact that its member
unions represent members that are employed in coal mining. I agree with the
greens to some extent. Coal mining is definitely bad for the environment, puts
the barrier Reef at risk and contributes to global warming. It's easy to say
just ban the Adani mine but you need to have a real plan to replace the
economic loss and the loss of jobs. Tourism and technology and green
industries are the obvious areas to target but there needs to be a real plan
as opposed to hand waving and broad statements.

------
ozmaverick72
A very well written article that covers all sides of the debate. This issue
has all but paralyzed the government of the country for at least the last
three parliaments. It looks like this election will still be close with no
side being able to win a commanding majority. Unfortunately it looks like we
are going to get more of the same indecision and inaction.

------
cerealbad
australia is a continent nation that has been out of ecological equilibrium
for at least 200 years. for the previous 100,000 years the human population
was wide spread and used aggressive mass burning of the land to hunt and
gather resources. the types of plants and animals that developed in this
forced selection event are hardy, drought resistant, fast growing and vastly
underutilized by the settler-colonial civilization that developed. the
introduced species: cats, dogs, horses, cows/water buffalo, camels, toads,
rabbits, deer, goats, pigs, foxes, are causing mass extinction of native fauna
species which are either prey or cannot compete in their environmental niches.
honey bees thrive in australian conditions since they are bred for efficient
pollination and can work almost year round with mild australian winters.
ironically the flammable flora is spreading faster than it can be control
burned, causing catastrophic wildfires across the habitable coastal and inland
regions which get progressively worse every year.

the solution is clearly to promote harvesting of introduced species at scale,
while also creating an export market around unique australian products from
flora and fauna - because of the lack of natural predators and the general
disinterest in controlling their population as a food resource - kangaroos, a
native species, are breeding completely out of control and rapidly exhausting
their natural environments, and the giant inland deserts grow bigger every
year. you add to this powder keg a general lack of understanding between a
remote and rural population which must deal with in-climate conditions
mentioned above and a well meaning but uninformed city population which fails
to grasp the situation and wants to promote a laisse faire attitude towards
sound ecological management and you get political wedges which always tiptoe
around the major issue.

the idea that australia will create some sort of tech hub to compete with
india, china, south korea, japan, singapore, hong kong etc is ridiculous. look
at a world map and corresponding population density.

~~~
catmanjan
I wouldn't say there is a disinterest in kangaroos as food, it is a difficult
thing to scale though - 8ft+ fences, on farm slaughtering/butchering because
you can't really transport them alive

Maybe if we started selectively breeding them they would be farmable in a few
hundred years?

~~~
Creationer
More that the hyper-efficient food supply chains of modern supermarkets demand
rigourous reliability, which industrialised growing and slaughtering of cows,
pigs and chickens can provide, but hunting kangaroos cannot.

I also suspect that when considering transportation costs, chicken farming is
probably more energy efficient than industrialised kangaroo farming. If
Australia had a more developed hunting community, it would provide a good
protein source for rural/regional communities though - like deer and boar do
in the USA.

Why not introduce Kangaroos into the wild in the USA or other landmasses, if
they are ecologically efficient?

~~~
jazzabeanie
That's a dangerous game. Australia played it many times and paid the price. I
don't think that they'd be so ecologically efficient in a different habitat.

A change in Australian culture to eat more kangaroo might help a lot.

------
chewz
> The first in a three-part series

Next chapters? Indonesia[1]... Poland...[2]

Coal is doing "good" despite green energy hype.

[1] [https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/04/article/film-exposes-
indon...](https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/04/article/film-exposes-indonesias-
coal-industry-abuses/)

[https://youtu.be/9f4yD44blpw](https://youtu.be/9f4yD44blpw)

[https://youtu.be/qlB7vg4I-To](https://youtu.be/qlB7vg4I-To)

[2]
[https://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2018/dec/14/...](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2018/dec/14/poland-
deadly-coal-addiction-in-pictures)

[https://www.ft.com/content/674ce754-6b9b-11e9-80c7-60ee53e66...](https://www.ft.com/content/674ce754-6b9b-11e9-80c7-60ee53e6681d)

------
BLKNSLVR
"The chief executive of Adani’s Australian mining division, Lucas Dow, rejects
concerns that Carmichael will create any damage to Australia—or to the world.
"

There was a recent incident where environmental damage has been caused by the
same company at the same port they'd use for the new mine:
[https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-03/adani-faces-multi-
mil...](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-03/adani-faces-multi-million-
dollar-fine-over-sediment-water/8494398)

Adani's use of the British Virgin Islands as a tax haven (backing up cam_|'s
point about profits from Australia's massive mineral deposits flowing
overseas): [https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-02/adanis-tax-haven-
ties...](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-02/adanis-tax-haven-ties-to-
british-virgin-islands-revealed/9007714)

The above is relevant to current politics as multi-national tax avoidance /
evasion / minimisation has been a hot topic in the last 12 months.

Australia's "leadership" has really dropped the ball on preparing Australia
for a changing economy, and it's the people that depend on coal for their day-
to-day livelihoods (not the fucking investors) that are left holding the bag.
There is no national plan with how to deal with displaced miners (as far as I
know).

The Labor party (not to say they're overall much better than the current
government at decent leadership) tried to improve Australia's communications
infrastructure with their Fiber to the Home NBN project, but that's now less
than a shadow of what it could have been, and the political will to repair it
just doesn't exist. Add to that the recent laws about mandatory data retention
and legislating the ability to secretly force developers to add backdoors into
their software, and Australia's reputation in the growing "digital economy"
stakes has being going in the wrong direction for nearly a decade.

Australia, with it's plentiful sunshine and wide open spaces had an
opportunity to lead the world in renewables, particularly solar. Nope, fumbled
that too. For the last seven years there's uncertainty around government
policy and funding for solar and wind farms, so there just aren't the number
of projects that there would have been with a bit more federal encouragement.
Much of what's been built in the last few years has been a result of
progressive state governments.

Australia got the biggest lithium battery in the world in a well-publicised
deal with Tesla / Elon Musk. The Prime Minister and his party ridiculed it
rather than celebrating being the leadership of a progressive country -
because it was implemented by the state, not federal, government. That's how
pissy Australian politics has become.

Ironically, agriculture is another of Australia's great strengths, and that's
already feeling the effects of climate change with the increasing frequency of
"once in a hundred years" scale floods in Queensland, and almost annual EL
Nino and La Nina weather patterns (which are the two extreme ends of the
spectrum). Not that agriculture is particularly environmentally-friendly,
depending on what agriculture it is, but it's a more permanent economic base
than minerals.

There are too many powerful people in Australia who got to where they are
because of, primarily, coal. It's understandable that they're defending it to
the hilt, it's human nature to cling to what you know. Unfortunately, in this
case, as a group they're powerful enough to hold back the entire country and
only an election has a chance to loosen the grip just a little bit. Evidence
of the dangers of being a one-trick-pony too successfully for too long.

~~~
daemin
Don't forget the fumbling of the Murray Darling river ecosystem where farmers
just suck up all the water out of it, leaving nothing for downstream. Without
better management of this resource I don't know how much longer Australia will
have an agriculture industry.

~~~
BLKNSLVR
A couple of articles about that:

[https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-08/second-fish-kill-
in-d...](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-08/second-fish-kill-in-darling-
river-at-menindee/10696632)

[https://phys.org/news/2019-01-million-dead-fish-
environmenta...](https://phys.org/news/2019-01-million-dead-fish-
environmental-australia.html)

