

Annual Nobel Predictions Announced, but Forecasting still a Tricky Business - gsivil
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2011/09/21/annual-nobel-predictions-announced-but-forecasting-prizes-remains-a-tricky-business/

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gsivil
And the relevant link:

<http://science.thomsonreuters.com/nobel/2011predictions/>

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mathattack
Predictions are so much easier after the fact. :-)

It seems a little shady for them to claim victory with people staying on the
available list year over year. With 120 candidates, how can they not be lucky
at least a few times?

I have seen studies that Nobel winners live longer. I'd be interested in the
NPV of the career benefits above and beyond the award. Is it more lucrative in
some fields than others?

