
Look out, Nissan Leaf: Tesla S will sell for under $50,000, run for 160 miles - evo_9
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/110193-look-out-nissan-leaf-tesla-s-will-sell-for-under-50000-run-for-160-miles
======
bgentry
Worth mentioning that they're already sold out of cars next year and are
expecting to turn a profit by 2013:

<http://www.mercurynews.com/cars/ci_19219782>

That's impressive for a company that requires that kind of capital investment
(R&D, manufacturing facilities, tons of engineers, etc..)

~~~
silentscope
That is worth mentioning. I smell an underserved market.

------
ryandvm
> Wouldn’t you rather contribute to a cleaner environment with an electric car
> that looks like a Maserati than with an electric bubble car styled to look
> at home disgorging a dozen circus performers?

You would think - but I believe it was Freakonomics that did a story wherein
they discovered that a large part of the Prius' success over other hybrids was
due to its unique and recognizable styling. It's a very visible way to
broadcast your eco-credibility.

~~~
anamax
> You would think - but I believe it was Freakonomics that did a story wherein
> they discovered that a large part of the Prius' success over other hybrids
> was due to its unique and recognizable styling.

That "success over other hybrids" is local. Specifically, the freaonomics
folks found that the market share of hybrids that don't look different is
pretty much constant across the US. The prius, which is distinctive, doesn't
sell like that. Its market share seems to vary with the dominant political
party - it's very popular in Dem regions and just average in Repub regions.

------
candre717
At $50,000 v $27,700 for the Nissan Leaf, the Tesla S is also targeting a
different type of buyer, too. The article is almost like comparing a Toyota
Camry buyer with a Lexus GS 350 buyer - they're similar but not the same.

------
anamax
No, the Tesla doesn't sell for "under $50k". It might cost some buyers that
after a tax credit, but other buyers might not be eligible for that credit or
the full amount of the credit.

------
bdfh42
Carping I know but:

The car might go that far in daylight if it isn't raining and the batteries
are fresh - oh and you do not go very fast...

Plus Tesla are hardly a volume car company - very few cars on the road when
you take all the fuss into account - Tesla produces publicity rather more than
cars.

~~~
goodweeds
_Tesla produces publicity rather more than cars._

Very well said! Tesla is in the business of marketing their brand and begging
for corporate welfare, they only manage to build products as a side-effect.

~~~
rubinelli
In the meantime, Nissan sold more than 20,000 Leafs. That's tiny compared to
the 2 million Priuses sold, but it's still 10 times the number of Roadsters
out there.

~~~
ericd
You do realize that they're not at all comparable, right? The Roadster was a
luxury sports car (and having ridden in one, it is _batshit insane_ how fast
it is), and it's priced in that range. They're hand-built. They were never
meant to be a volume car, they were meant to build a brand, which they've done
quite successfully.

Now comes the second phase, where Tesla makes a luxury sedan that seats 7 and
has the 0-60 times of a 500 horsepower BMW M5. I don't know about you, but I
plan on buying one as soon as I can, and I bet a lot of other people do to. I
wouldn't buy the Leaf at half the price, because it has an unusable range.
Model S doesn't have that problem.

~~~
rubinelli
That's true, but my (poorly-made) point was that the Leaf is an actual mass-
produced car, delivered to real customers. Creating a niche, hand-made product
is in itself hard, but it's the jump to mass production that has killed most
new car manufacturers. I hope you are able to buy a Model S in the not-too-
distant future, but I wouldn't count on it.

~~~
ericd
Ah I see, "one's real and one's not real yet". That's fair, only time will
tell how the Model S works out in mass production.

------
ck2
Don't we all win when there is an electric at every price level? With lots of
competition?

Half of the cost of these cars is the battery - we really need some kind of
battery price/performance breakthrough ASAP but sadly it still looks like
mostly a slow evolution rather than a revolution.

------
jdeibele
Someone who lives near me has one of the Tesla Roadster. The only reason I
know that is because I've seen the car outside with a Tesla technician working
on it. He's got a Tesla uniform and the van is labeled.

On the one hand, nice that they come to you. On the other hand, it seems like
it's getting serviced a lot relative to the time being driven.

~~~
thrill
A good friend of mine bought one of the first Tesla Roadsters. I remember when
it was delivered at midnight, and we took a test drive. Executive summary: Oh.
My. God.

He's had a service guy several times, but only once has it been for an actual
problem as I recall - the remainder were initiated by Tesla to head-off
problems they'd found on other vehicles I suppose. Tesla has been very
communicative with him the whole time.

------
hkarthik
I'd totally lease one to try it out and see if it fits my lifestyle and
availability of charging stations in my city.

~~~
marquis
Speaking of leases I'd like to see more people leasing cars over buying them.
It would lead to less old cars being on the road and better up-take of
electric vehicles. There are weeks or months when I rarely drive (I'm
travelling or over the summer months when I'd rather cycle). ZipCar et al are
great to see existing but cover a tiny, tiny niche. If there were some kind of
subsidy in the lease direction we'd probably also see better prices. I guess
car ownership in the U.S. is too far embedded though for this to really change
but I bet if leases were tax-deducible on a personal level we'd see something
happen quickly on that front.

~~~
rdl
It isn't as I'd the off lease used cars jut disappear. They get sold -- no one
leases 2-5yo used cars, but buying a nice $50k car used after 2y of lease with
better than new warranty and service for 25-30k and keeping it for 5-10y seems
to be working pretty well for me.

What you'd really need for leases to get old cars off the road is a design for
refurbishment and upgrade, like military vehicles, aircraft, etc. It is
reasonable to think electric cars may go that way, with drivetrain swapped out
for a new one, but that kind of design usually increases weight and cost. It
probably makes sense to just sell used cars at a discount, or to scrap them.

The only way to get used cars off the road is a progressive inspection and
road tax system like in Japan, and even them most of the old cars get exported
and driven elsewhere.

~~~
hkarthik
I've considered buying a $50K car used after 2 years. Are there any brands you
recommend sticking to when going this route? I know some of them just gouge
you on the maintenance costs after 30K miles or so.

~~~
rdl
You really need to look at the specific model, not just the brand. I think
there are sites like Edmunds TCO and Consumer Reports which are good about
model reliability.

I'm really happy with the Audi A4 (B7), made from 2006.5 to 2008, with the
2.0TSI engine. They're probably $10-25k used now.

------
ronaldj
They need to keep making the roadster.

~~~
dkokelley
I spoke with a representative at their Santa Monica dealership. The Roadster
was a joint venture with Lotus (who manufactured the body). Their contract is
just about over. As of now, the Tesla Roadster as we know it will not be
manufactured any longer. The Model S is an in-house design. After the Model S,
they will work on an even larger vehicle, and then a remake of the Roadster,
most likely built on the Model S platform. The Roadster will likely be back,
but in a different form.

------
bitsoda
While I appreciate the progress and ever-decreasing costs of EVs, does anybody
else wish some car manufacturer would produce, you know, a normal-looking
electric car in the $25k-$35k range? Most EVs resemble futuristic sex toys
more than they do conventional automobiles.

Edit: I should point out that the Tesla Model S has a tasteful look, but is a
bit too fancy pants for me at the moment.

~~~
zanny
The batteries are massively expensive to make, so the cost of making the cars
high end is nothing compared to the price of batteries.

Really, these Tesla 50k cars are probably around 35k battery, 10k frame and
body, 5k everything else. It is why the 240 mile and 300 mile versions are
each respectively 10k more expensive.

One thing nobody seems to be talking about is how these vehicles have much
shorter livespans than a well maintained gas guzzler. The batteries only have
around 100k charge cycles, and I read somewhere that the reality is the
batteries of electric cars half their charge life in 5 years, and probably
need replaced by 8.

~~~
r00fus
> One thing nobody seems to be talking about is how these vehicles have much
> shorter livespans than a well maintained gas guzzler. The batteries only
> have around 100k charge cycles, and I read somewhere that the reality is the
> batteries of electric cars half their charge life in 5 years, and probably
> need replaced by 8.

You ignore that modern gas engines require fixing/replacement of clutches,
transmissions, engine rebuilds etc. that an electric vehicle don't need/have.
Those things wear out faster than a HV battery.

I know folks with 10+ year old Prius who still get 45+ MPG.

Finally Tesla warranties the battery for 8 years [1]. So after 8 years you
might have to replace the battery, and the cost of which (given the rise of
electric cars) will have gone down considerably.

[1] [http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/model-s-update-pricing-
and-o...](http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/model-s-update-pricing-and-options)

------
thrill
Make a convertible option and I'll buy one.

------
resnamen
Does this figure include government subsidies? Let's just say that I'll
believe it when I see it.

