
India’s Covid 19 Moment of Truth - imartin2k
https://www.mindthismagazine.com/indias-covid-19-moment-of-truth/
======
eklavya
That was a pretty elaborate "nothing" and unnecessarily political. "The way
forward" advises the government to do more than it has ever done before. Well,
no shit Sherlock.

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eqtn
Indian government went to Supreme Court(SC) to control the news of Covid19 in
media(to control fake news, as per government). SC upheld the right to free
discussion about COVID-19, even as it directed the media to refer to and
publish the official version of the developments in order to avoid
inaccuracies and large-scale panic. Aftermath is that the government got a
chance to under report the positive cases and deaths and over report the
testing capabilities.

source: [https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/coronavirus-
supreme-c...](https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/coronavirus-supreme-
court-upholds-right-to-discuss-covid-19/article31218565.ece)

~~~
rinka_singh
Given the amount of fake information floating around and the impact it will
have in such scary times, it will be better to have control on it. Granted
that we must not stop alternative points of view from bubbling up but we have
enough and more people generating fake news and muddying the water.

Given the emergency situation it is much better have a greater degree of
control. This is similar to the war time (WW-II) control on news agencies. The
situation is similar.

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WantonQuantum
Archived version:

[https://web.archive.org/web/20200401075505/https://www.mindt...](https://web.archive.org/web/20200401075505/https://www.mindthismagazine.com/indias-
covid-19-moment-of-truth/)

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chvid
Why is there no major outbreak in India? One would expect it given the high
population density.

~~~
adventured
Because it's 32 degrees in New Delhi, 33 degrees in Mumbai and 36 degrees in
Hyderabad.

This doesn't cease all transmission of SARS-CoV-2, it considerably reduces the
rate of infections. The virus does not do well in higher temps (ideally with
high humidity; which is why it's doing so very poorly in both Hawaii and
Singapore, despite entirely different approaches to dealing with the virus).
Singapore gets up to 32-33 degrees this time of year and Hawaii is at 25,
which is enough.

There is overwhelming evidence at this point that SARS-CoV-2 is slowed by
temperatures over ~18 degrees. China and the US have both seen the same thing.
Prior studies on influenza indicate that its transmission rate plunges over
roughly 17-18 degrees. Which also matches what the MIT study (below) found
looking at the infection data for this virus. There are two other recent
studies mentioned below, that reach a similar conclusion.

Here's China seeing the same thing:

[https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767)

Here's the US:

"The results: In the most recent analysis, which used data compiled by Johns
Hopkins University, two MIT post-docs in the civil engineering and cognitive
science departments found that the maximum number of coronavirus transmissions
has occurred in regions that had temperatures between 3 and 13 °C during the
outbreak. In contrast, countries with mean temperatures above 18 °C have seen
fewer than 5% of total cases. This pattern also shows up within the US, where
southern states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona have seen a slower growth
rate than northern states like Washington, New York, and Colorado. California,
which spans north and south, has a growth rate that falls in between."

"Two other preprint papers have drawn similar conclusions. The first, posted
on Monday by two researchers from Spain and Finland, found that 95% of
positive cases globally have thus far occurred at temperatures between -2 and
10 °C"

[https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615381/coronavirus-
spread...](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615381/coronavirus-spread-could-
slow-with-warmer-weather/)

Note: that publish date for the article is from March 19. The predicted
results have not only continued to hold well globally, they have unfortunately
proven to be a future forecast for what happened in NYC due to its climate.

~~~
chvid
Then why the lockdown if there is no outbreak and it is too hot for the virus
to spread?

~~~
mkl
Heat slows it (edit: ?), but exponential growth is still exponential growth.
From the article, India's doubling time is currently about 5 days [1]. In 20
days, that means going from 200 cases to 200 * 2⁴ = 3200. In 40 days, 200 * 2⁸
= 51000, and 62 days is enough to pass 1 million. The US has been doubling
every 2-3 days, so it will get there faster (probably in spite of the measures
being taken). Even Japan and Singapore still seem to be following an
exponential curve, just with a doubling time of ~10 days.

[1] See here for many countries (some data a day behind):
[https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infection-trajectory-
flatte...](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infection-trajectory-flattening-
the-covid19-curve/)

~~~
totalZero
Do you have evidence that heat slows contagion of this virus, or is that
simply an assumption based on other viral respiratory illnesses? Brazil has
~200 deaths while the average high in Sao Paulo for March is generally around
82F.

~~~
hesarenu
82F or 27C would be average to low temp considering South India. Its around 32
now and might increase in coming months.

~~~
totalZero
That's a bit of hairsplitting, but I'll follow your line of thinking to
explain what I mean.

Saudi Arabia is asking Muslims to defer Hajj due to coronavirus. Today's high
in Mecca is estimated 99F (37C).

Today's high in Porto Alegre, a little bit to the south of Sao Paolo in a
state with hundreds of cases, is 89F (32C). That's just about the same
temperature as you might find today in Kerala.

All three places -- Brazil, Saudi Arabia, India -- get hot.

The point is that there is no evidence of a magic threshold temperature above
which we are safe. We can't assume that summer temperatures decrease
contagion. I hope it is true that the virus abates in warm weather, but hope
isn't a basis for decision-making.

People in squalid Indian slums are exposed to much sickness and death that
would be easily eradicated by access to good medical care, sanitation
infrastructure, and reliable pharmaceuticals. Child mortality is alarmingly
high in these slums. These poor people are vulnerable. It does them a
disservice for government administrators to convince themselves that there may
be a simple, inexpensive solution in the form of natural weather patterns.
It's an insidious thing, this suggestion. On the one hand, it feels hopeful to
think that the climate will interfere with contagion. On the other hand, the
idea is harmful because it counteracts the fear of outbreak that should be
motivating governments to listen to their public health officials and be
proactive and aggressive in mitigating the outbreak.

~~~
hesarenu
I mentioned the temp because you said san palo has high of 27C. 27C is like
night time temp in my home town for this season. So yeah its not a high temp.
Porto Alegre high seems to be around 29. We have high in terms of 32/34 etc.
Ahmedabad has high like 38plus which is very hot even for us southern guys.

I have no idea if temp makes a difference of not. Number of tests are very low
to determine that.

And one more thing not all people live in slums in India. India is too big and
varied. Visiting Mumbai slums does not mean we are filled with it.

~~~
totalZero
Ahmedabad sounds very hot indeed.

Guayaquil in Ecuador is another outbreak zone. 245km south of the Equator, 32C
today. Dead bodies rest in the streets for days, people are dying in front of
hospitals, morgues are full, and even the mayor has tested positive. The
official death count is above 60 but is considered by many to be a fraction of
the true toll, since testing capacity is scarce and deaths of the untested do
not contribute to the count.

[https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/the-impossibility-of-
bur...](https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/the-impossibility-of-burial-
doubles-the-pain-of-coronavirus-in-guayaquil/24350)

[https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/en-
espanol/noticias/sto...](https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/en-
espanol/noticias/story/2020-04-02/en-guayaquil-ecuador-la-gente-vive-entre-
sus-muertos)

I don't think all people live in slums in India. I've never been there. I've
been all over Latin America and have seen the good and the bad. The problem
with the developing countries here in the Americas isn't poverty; it's
disparity. The urban poor are truly destitute, face challenges that never
affect the rich, and are locked out of certain strata of economic and
political life. Yet, you can walk two blocks down the street from a slum and
find yourself in front of a luxury high-rise where life is totally different
and residents feel a mix of fear and pity for their less-fortunate neighbors.
I imagine that India has a similar combination of extremely developed and
extremely destitute areas. My personal view is that the ruling classes
tolerate this arrangement when crime can be contained, because slums are a
source of cheap labor.

Destitute areas are a risk when it comes to contagion management.

Tens of millions of people live in slums in India, and those places could be a
breeding ground among individuals who then carry their illness to work or to
hospitals. Annual childhood mortality has been counted in the millions in
India's slums, and COVID-19 wouldn't be the only disease making the rounds
there. The risk of secondary infection would increase mortality among a
population that already lacks good access to health care.

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livealife
" Misguidance in the form of suggesting cow urine as a protection against the
virus; religiously-oriented obligations that discourage social distancing; and
mass disregard and refusal to adhere to rules restricting and in some cases
prohibiting altogether cultural gatherings suggest that such behavior escapes
the particularity of any one religious, cultural and geographic identity. "

Can the author provide any relevant sources that proves the above fact. If you
write a column, you should be able to prove what you said. This hurts
sentiments of Hindu's, a religion which consists of majority of Indian
population.

~~~
livealife
Author clearly doesn't know what secularism means.

~~~
livealife
Outbreak of a pandemic doesn't give anyone right to spread hatred towards
Asians.

The important aspect of the outbreak is not the fact that there is loss of
human lives, but most importantly loosing the things that makes us human.

~~~
101404
Nobody is "spreading hatred". Please stop abusing this term to further your
agenda. Thank you.

