
Nearly half of Bay Area residents want out, poll shows - SQL2219
http://www.sacbee.com/news/business/article212449489.html
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dragonwriter
The headline accurately reflects the text of the article, but the text doesn't
accurately reflect the poll it is based on.

> A poll released Sunday by a local advocacy group showed that 46 percent of
> Bay Area residents surveyed said they want to move out of the area within
> the next few years.

1\. A poll will only be released by an advocacy group if it can be spun to
confirm the propaganda interest for which it was commissioned, and such groups
will continue to commission new surveys until they get one that confirms their
narrative to release. But it's a bad sign when they have to release something
they still takes massive spin to confirm the narrative...

2\. The poll didn't survey residents, it surveyed registered voters which are
demographically and otherwise a nonrepresentative group compared to the wider
pool of residents, so even if it were a valid survey of registered voters
(which is a dumb universe to poll on this question), its not valid to
generalize from that to residents.

3\. The poll doesn't ask them if they _want_ to leave, it asks them if they
_expect_ to leave. That’s a radically different question.

4\. It's a quite transparent push poll, where the “do you expect to move out”
question is the last question, and both the first question and the immediate
preceding question (the two most influential in leading the response) are
negatively framed, while all other questions are neutrally framed, with no
positively framed questions.

5\. While the numbers change year to year, it's a repeated poll which always
produces a big number that gets breathless media coverage, but there's no
evidence that the responses actually predict the magnitude of Bay Area exits
(even in the RV population.)

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jonny_eh
And how many people want to move in?

