

Predictive market for startups - sharemywin

Would you enter your startup in a predictive market if your startup could win $10k?<p>Would you trade stock(not real money) in a predicitve market on startups if you could win $1k?
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mchannon
Interesting idea. To set prices, etc. there'd have to be "buyers" and
"sellers" of some sort, and some way of attracting outside parties (or perhaps
other startups) to do the buying and selling even if it's not for real money.

The main thing to keep me from participating would be the distraction factor-
rather than going through the unsexy fundamentals (making a good product and
keeping it good) I'd be tempted to drive a different set of metrics. $10k is a
powerful motivator, but not as powerful as making a living or hitting a grand
slam.

The key to making this work is making it require very little additional effort
on the startups themselves beyond what they'd ordinarily be doing.

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mchannon
So is this like an intrade for startup success or failure? Kinda like a
deadpool?

I'd think there'd be too much potential for gaming such a system if I
understand it right. I can bet on who will win an election and that works out
because a candidate won't throw the election in order to bet and win on his
opponent.

That's not necessarily the case with startup X #119, particularly when I can
set up startup X #120 with the same IP and concept and game things again.

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sharemywin
Any start up that registers would have a stock price as they progress through
creating a working product, adding a feature, filing a patent, publicity etc
their stock price would go up or down based on who's trading on it. Only 1
unique stock trader per domain. or a valid telephone number maybe using
automated verification. Something that has an external cost to entering but
not an outright entry fee(legal reasons). The contests would only run like 3
months similar to Ycombinator.

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sharemywin
the value to the startup isn't the prize but the feedback from the stock price
and helping to build a community around the product.

