
Why Your Next iPhone Won't Be Ceramic - colinprince
http://atomicdelights.com/blog/why-your-next-iphone-wont-be-ceramic
======
xoa
The author makes a good argument (and I always love reading about the nitty
gritty of Apple's construction and what they not merely do, but do at
incredible scale and consistency), and additionally some of the structural
tradeoffs involved in ceramics may be unacceptable for general survivability
in a phone-sized form factor. But even so I was surprised in his 3 option list
he ignored an obvious 4th. He's correct about scaling and switchover
challenges, and that at least as of right now Apple doesn't seem to have any
major leaps forward in ceramic manufacturing actively deployed in a product,
which in turn means iPhone-scale mass manufacturer would be incredibly
expensive/difficult, even for Apple.

But that's probably part of why _Apple doesn 't do it in the Watch either_.
Instead, they have an entire lineup of Watches, and then use a very expensive,
niche process only for an ultra premium skin. While I still consider it
unlikely (Apple hasn't done this sort of thing in one of its main lines since
the TAM in 1997), if they wanted to start the playing with an advanced
material they couldn't get to scale quickly one way would be to just port the
Apple Watch strategy and make it exclusive to a special high end model, ie., a
ceramic "iPhone Edition" for $2-3k or whatever along with the normal color
options. The 10th anniversary of the iPhone would be an occasion for that too.
That strategy would have the standard advantages in terms of natural market
forces: very high pricing simultaneously limits demand and ensures a large
margin for R&D, handling issues, and scale out.

There are still plenty of downsides and again ZrO2 ceramics may just plain not
be appropriate for the future of general Apple products _regardless_ of
manufacturing. But if they had a 10 year plan to do a major material shift in
their product lines, simply reflecting reality and making the new material
premium at launch then moving it down the stack seems like it'd be an option
they could now pursue given that they've already gone some distance to getting
the public used to the idea of differently priced "skins" on an identical
internal hardware platform.

~~~
Animats
_additionally some of the structural tradeoffs involved in ceramics may be
unacceptable for general survivability in a phone-sized form factor._

Um, yes. Look how much trouble Apple has with bending. Remember "bendgate". A
ceramic will crack, not bend.

The other direction, flexible phones, has promise. Flexible printed circuits
already exist. Flexible displays exist. Flexible batteries are probably
possible. Flexible front transparent cover should be possible. Samsung has
tried some things in this space, and has shipped a slightly curved phone. So
far, no really flexible phones. The main problem is making it flexible while
limiting the amount of bend. Maybe a stiff flat spring...

~~~
vegabook
I doubt anybody wants a bendy battery in their phone anytime soon, given
heightening consumer awareness of how dangerous high energy Lithium Ion can
be, and how sensitive they are to damage.

~~~
Declanomous
That sounds like a marketing opportunity to me.

"Normal lithium ion batteries are rigid, making them susceptible to damage.
When bent, they catch fire."

(Graphic of phone catching on fire)

"The new bendy battery bends, rather than breaks. This keeps you and your
loved ones safe!"

~~~
wolfgke
> "Normal lithium ion batteries are rigid, making them susceptible to damage.
> When bent, they catch fire."

This together with a bendable iPhone is marketing the iPhone to people that
the TSA rather does not want to let into planes. :-)

------
danso
The production issues and scaling make sense. But ignoring that, what would be
the advantage of a phone made out of ceramics? The OP makes mention of luster
and durability...is it lighterweight, too? Less prone to denting? I'm reminded
of the way ceramic knives are often sharper than steel, but much more prone to
shattering.

Edit: re-reading the post, I see that the site has chosen to indicate
hyperlinks by coloring them #000 instead of the body text color of #666, so I
missed the initial link to Quora, which contains a list of advantages:
[https://www.quora.com/What-will-the-iPhone-8-be-made-
of](https://www.quora.com/What-will-the-iPhone-8-be-made-of)

However, it does acknowledge the brittleness factor. Seeing how phones are
prone to being dropped, I'd take a scuff/dent in aluminum over the possibility
of a massive crack in my phone's body.

~~~
blt
Yeah, I understand ceramics to be very hard but brittle. It seems like a
ceramic-cased phone would shatter when dropped. I think it's OK for the
smaller, lighter watch in the same way that exoskeletons only work for
lightweight animals.

~~~
r0m4n0
Agreed. I can't help but think back to a black ceramic watch I purchased. The
metallic black color and finish were pretty amazing (and it didn't really
scratch) but it took a whole 2 months until it slid off a table and the entire
band shattered on the floor. Some of the links were replaceable but some
weren't. I think I still have the leftovers in a shoebox somewhere. I'm not
sure I want my phone to be that fragile.

~~~
analog31
I'm reminded of a quote from _Skunk Works_ , attributed to Soviet engineer
Alexander Tupolev: "You Americans build airplanes like a Rolex watch. Knock it
off the night table and it stops ticking. We build airplanes like a cheap
alarm clock. But knock it off the table and still it wakes you up."

------
jlebrech
It'll even more Aluminum/Aluminium because the "glass" will be made of this
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium_oxynitride](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium_oxynitride)

~~~
eric_h
Ha! I didn't know that we'd finally invented transparent aluminum. Scotty
would be proud.

~~~
thescriptkiddie
Actually, sapphire is already more transparent than window glass and is 100%
aluminum oxide. Aluminium oxynitride is a transparent ceramic that has similar
properties to sapphire but is not quite as strong or as expensive.

~~~
DannyBee
+1

I'm weird, but the nicest part of sapphire for me was that it meant i could
keep my phone in the shop without worrying about the screen getting scratched
from saw blades, chisels, or carbide marking knives i put in my pocket.

Of course, i guess i'd have the opposite problem of the phone scratching those
things, but ...

~~~
jaggederest
That doesn't make sense, tungsten carbide is harder than sapphire. Carbide
tools should scratch it no problem.

~~~
DannyBee
It varies.

You are right that _some_ are harder than pure sapphire, but it depends on the
exact grade, etc, and depends on what you do to the sapphire.

Suffice to say: I have tested saw blades i have against sapphire screened
watches i have. They do not scratch.

¯\\_(ツ)_/¯

------
TaylorAlexander
This article made me really want to get a manufacturing job at Apple... So I'm
applying for one now. I never realized Apple was the world's largest owner of
CNC machines.

------
LordHumungous
One summer in college I interned for a company that was building components of
the 787 fuselage. If you want to talk about completely retooling a
manufacturing process, imagine going from aluminum riveted aircraft to an
entirely unprecedented full composite construction. It was something to
behold.

------
nik736
I love my ceramic Mi5 Pro! Feels awesome and I can't imagine something else
after using it. Sadly even Xiaomi probably won't build a ceramic phone again
because of the manufacturing hassle.

~~~
striking
Right? I have a black OnePlus One and the first thing anyone says is, "wow,
what's this made of?" Sandstone was an awesome choice. At least it's still
available as a snap-on case for the OP3.

------
wyager
I'm always amazed when I talk to mechanical/process engineers or designers
about Apple products. They put an insane amount of effort into quality and
aesthetics that many users will never notice or appreciate.

If only their software had the same quality as their hardware... iOS and macOS
have been degrading noticeably over the last few years. Perhaps they ought to
use software tech as hard-line as their hardware tech. A device machined to
within 10um ought to have a kernel to match.

~~~
snowwrestler
Software, in general, is hundreds to thousands of years behind metalworking as
an engineering discipline.

Most software is still made like early firearms: each piece uniquely crafted
one at a time from scratch.

We don't even know how to measure the quality of software, let alone how to
systematically improve it.

I wish Apple's software was better, but I feel the same way about everyone
else's software too.

~~~
UK-AL
Actually software can be repeatedly created with 100% accuracy.

Writing software is creating the design of a gun. Not the construction.

~~~
tomcam
Perhaps I misunderstand you, but writing software is not like creating the
design of a gun. Creating an algorithm is like creating the design of a gun.
You can implement an algorithm poorly, and you could build a gun from a
blueprint poorly, for example, using a soft metal. I am not trying to be
pedantic. I genuinely do not understand your point.

~~~
UK-AL
The specification of an algorithm is the code. Other ways of defining an
algorithm is simply a useful but leaky abstraction.

Once you understand that code is the (highly detailed)design, a lot of the
reasons why software is so hard to do well makes a lot more sense. Compiling
the code or running in a vm is the construction.

It explains why estimates are hard, and why software is not something pump out
like manufacturing line easily.

~~~
tomcam
Ok, I agree completely

------
Kenji
As pretty as aluminum is, it's way too soft. I have a CNC milled android
device and it's got some nasty bumps from me dropping it on the ground.
Plastic, while not as shiny and fancy, is much better suited and more
resilient if you value material strength and usability over looks. It's
cheaper too.

~~~
laurentdc
This. Drop a MacBook (or any other aluminum gadget) and it's bent out of shape
forever.

Good plastic (glass-fiber or carbon-fiber reinforced) is generally... plastic.

~~~
awqrre
Couldn't you reinforce aluminum with glass-fiber too (or carbon-fiber)?

~~~
ridgeguy
You can. Here's one company that does (ceramic) fiber reinforced aluminum.

[http://specmaterials.com/fra.html](http://specmaterials.com/fra.html)

There's lots of research literature on carbon nanotube reinforced aluminum.

------
tominous
The author goes to the trouble of using the phrase "takt time" and linking to
its definition but then misuses it. Assuming non-stop operations and 1 million
units a day, the takt time (average time between unit starts) is about 85ms,
not 3-4 minutes. Assuming a cycle time for interior milling of 240s, the
difference is a factor of about 3000, which matches the estimate for the
number of milling machines operating in parallel.

~~~
gak_pdx
You caught me!

Confession? I had a better surrounding blurb explaining takt time, because
people who read my (once a year) posts get off on the nerdery, but it was
clunky, so I sort of inaccurately dropped it in with a link to the real
definition to let people explore the term on their own.

------
brisance
Or maybe all this is leading to Apple learning how to transition to
transparent aluminium.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium_oxynitride](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium_oxynitride)

------
Theodores
The special properties of ceramics are what? Disc brakes and ball bearings are
all I know. In neither of these situations is brittleness a problem. Given
brittleness is a problem I cannot see iphones being ceramic any time soon even
as a back inlay. However that could be done and the assumptions of this
article all wrong. As an inlay the tolerances might be fine, no army of robots
needed. The aluminium band holding it together could be an extrusion,
hydroformed to have strength.

~~~
LeifCarrotson
Ceramics are extremely hard and tolerant of great heat (the latter not being
particularly relevant). They can also be lightweight for their strength, at
least in compression. They can also have a nice, smooth, cool feel in the hand
(partially as a result of their temperature insulation properties).

They're also a huge variety of materials, it's like asking why plastic is a
good material - do you mean silicone rubber, ABS, or Teflon?

~~~
DannyBee
"Ceramics are extremely hard and tolerant of great heat (the latter not being
particularly relevant)"

But very rarely are they not brittle upon impact.

This is why you don't see ceramic saw blades - carbide, even though brittle,
is much less brittle than ceramics.

(this is also why they don't use diamond saw blades except for abrasive
cutting - the diamonds we make are too brittle to be used to cut wood).

~~~
mrob
>carbide, even though brittle, is much less brittle than ceramics

To clarify, "carbide" here is short for "cemented carbide", i.e. ceramic
carbide particles sintered together in a metal binder. It's tougher than the
pure ceramic although still somewhat brittle.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cemented_carbide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cemented_carbide)

~~~
DannyBee
Yes. They rely on the metal binder to provide some help here.

But ceramic still wouldn't work.

(at least what we are talking about here. In theory, cemented carbide can be a
ceramic, depending on the exact terminology used).

------
6stringmerc
Apple and aluminum are design mates big time, I don't see that shift changing,
but rather evolving as glass/touch/sizing progress continues.

Because I'm an unrepentant geek for the stuff I'm going to want a carbon fiber
chassis phone eventually. Mass-production CF still isn't a reality as far as I
know, but it's being tested (BMW, golf companies, etc).

------
GrumpyNl
"Numbers sheet busting figures we all expect from the 10th Anniversary model
of the world's most successful product in history.", did we forget the
lightbulb?

------
jrowley
Interesting to compare Apple to Telsa, who is having to scale production like
crazy and is designing/manufacturing some their manufacturing machines
themselves

------
Anjin
The author ignored one of the most interesting parts of the Quora post, the
patent that Apple filed about a manufacturing process that casts ceramic parts
and silicon/rubber parts at the same time to make a single object that has
both hard ceramic structure and soft rubber. That would let them unify parts
like gaskets and bits that hold other bits into one single process.

So maybe even if the ceramic part of the process takes longer, they might be
able to make up for lost time but cutting out steps that are further down the
assembly process. To quote the patent:

"As one specific example, ceramic materials have numerous qualities that make
them particularly useful for use in electronic device housings. For example,
they may be highly scratch resistant, making them particularly well suited for
electronic devices that are frequently subject to bumps, scrapes, and
scratches, such as wearable electronic devices (e.g., smart watches, glasses
and the like), mechanical watches, and other consumer products (including, but
not limited to, media players, mobile computers, tablet computing devices, and
so on). As a specific example, the high hardness and optical clarity of
sapphire crystal (a crystalline ceramic material) may be very well suited as
the cover glass for a touch-screen of a wearable electronic device. Ceramic
materials may also be relatively light, making handheld or wearable electronic
devices easier to carry, wear, and use. Moreover, ceramic materials may be
able to achieve a high degree of surface polish making them particularly
aesthetically pleasing.

However, ceramic materials typically are more difficult to form into complex
geometries than plastics, and, thus, manufacturing housing components from
ceramic materials can be more difficult than for other materials. Accordingly,
described herein are housing components where a polymer material is co-molded
with a ceramic component to form a housing component that includes ceramic and
polymer material portions. (As used herein, the terms "polymer" and/or
"polymer material" encompass natural and synthetic polymers, plastics,
rubbers, and the like.) For example, a ceramic housing portion may be co-
molded with a polymer material to form a polymer clip that is directly coupled
to the ceramic material and can be used to retain the ceramic component with
another housing component. As another example, a polymer material may be co-
molded with a ceramic component to form a plastic coating on a portion of the
ceramic component

As described herein, a polymer material forming a polymer feature may be
coupled to a ceramic component by a co-molding process whereby the polymer
material is molded against the ceramic component. By co-molding the polymer
material directly onto the ceramic component, the polymer feature may be
bonded to the ceramic material without the use of an intervening adhesive or
other bonding agent between the ceramic and the polymer feature. For example,
instead of separately forming the ceramic component and the polymer feature,
and then adhering the polymer feature to the ceramic with glue, pressure
sensitive adhesive, heat activated films, epoxy, or the like, the polymer may
be molded directly against the ceramic material.

Thus, parts that include both ceramic and polymer components can be
manufactured more quickly and with higher precision than would be achieved if
the components had to be manufactured separately and thereafter coupled
together with adhesive. In some embodiments, the polymer material is injection
molded onto the ceramic component. In some embodiments, the polymer material
is molded onto the ceramic component using techniques other than injection
molding, such as gravity casting, or any other appropriate co-molding process.
Where the present discussion refers to injection molding, it will be
understood that other molding techniques may be used in such instances instead
of or in addition to injection molding."

------
addicted
At this point I suspect ceramics is the new liquid metal or sapphire.

Apple could certainly prove me wrong, but I have to see it to believe it.

------
smhg
As a reminder, on a larger scale: Apple's main focus is on design. Not build
quality [0]. This doesn't exclude a unique production process of course. But I
think it is important to not mix up both when forming an opinion about them.

[0] [https://www.quora.com/Why-do-Apples-proprietary-cables-
break...](https://www.quora.com/Why-do-Apples-proprietary-cables-break-so-
often-or-so-easily)

------
joshu
Anyone know how touch machinable ceramics are? I have a small piece of Macor
but I haven't tried milling it yet.

~~~
gak_pdx
Crazy slow on the feeds and speeds, diamond coated tooling (Harvey is where to
go). Macor is highly structurally compromised compared to other ceramics to
make it machinable.

Typically, production (which is to say, low volume med/aero/optics parts)
ceramic machining is limited to cleaning up datum surfaces, walls, mating
surfaces, holes and (god forbid) threadmilling tapped holes. It sucks. Totally
not capable of meeting iPhone scale at all.

(source: author of linked article)

~~~
joshu
Neat. Are normal ceramics machinable this way?

------
dsfyu404ed
Why can't they cast/forge the base shape and mill the features?

------
baybal2
Ceramic ifone that shatters 10 times easier than a glass one?

------
guelo
> patent attempting to lay claim to any electronic gadget with a ceramic
> enclosure

I'm going to get a patent for enclosing electronic gadgets in "fuck you apple"
stickers.

------
lucasarruda
To sum up: no one really knows for sure!

------
kpwagner
Apple continues to regress, and that's kind of sad.

The post-Steve-Jobs Apple has continued to produce superb products. And it has
scaled to a truly impressive level while maintaining quality and financial
statement success. However, at this point it's an old story to say that Apple
has recently failed to capture our imagination and "show us the magic" the way
it did throughout the 2000s. I remember being blown away by the early iMacs
and Macbooks, the early-gen iPods, iPhone, iPad (don't forget how impressive
the iPad was when it first came out), and the Macbook Air.

When people speculate that the next generation of Apple products may be
ceramic, I think I know why: they want the magic. Ceramic? That's sounds new
and interesting. Maybe it's environmentally friendly. Reading Koenig's
article, the case seems pretty strong for Apple's disincentive to make such a
significant change. It's the same disincentive that all large, successful
companies face: they do pretty well with the status quo, so why incur the
massive expense to do something new and risky?

I can't really blame Apple. But I also can't help but be a little sad. The
same way I can't help but be a little sad when a talented movie director goes
mainstream. It's a reminder that we all have to face reality and make
practical decisions; we all contribute to the massive pile of human ambition
and pass our excrement to the level below us; and we all are getting older.

~~~
dcfun
The thing is, it's easy to say this, but doesn't it ignore the fundamentals of
what's behind the magic in the first place. All of their major breakthrough
products (Mac, iPod, iPhone and iPad) came at a time when the technology that
made them possible had just reached maturity. Add on top of that, their
undoubted refinement of UI and industrial design and they created some major
winners.

What I think Apple lacks at the moment, is any new just-mature technology on
which to base its 'next big thing'. That's not to say Steve Jobs didn't have a
huge roll in making all their previous products a big hit, just that there is
nothing new on the scene at the moment with which to craft a break through
tech hit.

~~~
kpwagner
Interesting thoughts. I don't wholly disagree. You are right that the maturity
of solid-state drives and multi-touch displays played a big role in the timing
of new Apple products in the past. Though, I could point to VR and Electric
Vehicles as just-mature technologies where Apple could have made a big
investment. How excited would people be if Apple released an electric car...
or just bought Tesla.

~~~
nilkn
VR is at that "just mature" cusp for _video games_ , but not for general
computing interfaces. I believe that's why Apple hasn't jumped in yet. They
don't want to be a video game company like Steam or Oculus. They want to
create a completely new general computing UI, and VR just isn't ready for that
yet, nor is AR.

~~~
Razengan
Personally I think/hope that the next "magic" thing will be practical and
affordable hologram projectors/volumetric displays _a la_ R2D2 (but of course
better.)

