
A Startup Turns to Saffron to Help Afghanistan Regrow - miraj
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/11/business/smallbusiness/a-start-up-turns-to-saffron-to-help-afghanistan-regrow.html
======
fny
A few ponderings:

\- Using saffron as a means to transform poppy fields is a 12-year-old+
idea[0] that doesn't seem to have made a dent in opimium production, which has
skyrocketed since 2004.[1] What makes this iteration different?

\- In 2011, saffron prices dropped 60% to due to an oversupply.[2] Given that
the market for saffron is relatively established, isn't there concern that
Rumi's growth might outpace demand and cause a similar price drop?

\- What makes Rumi different than current companies run by locals such as the
Afghan Saffron Company?[3]

[0]:
[http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/1...](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/1458504/Afghan-
farmers-turn-to-saffron-as-replacement-for-their-opium-crops.html)

[1]: [https://publicintelligence.net/unodc-afghan-opium-
survey-201...](https://publicintelligence.net/unodc-afghan-opium-survey-2015/)

[2]: [http://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-
asia-13848820](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-13848820)

[3]: [http://www.afghansaffron.com/](http://www.afghansaffron.com/)

------
AndrewKemendo
These are some of my best friends and fellow veterans. We couldn't be prouder
of what they are doing. They are part of YC's fellowship as well if that
wasn't already known.

What you all here might be interested in that isn't discussed is how they are
opening up and transforming logistics and supply chain into previously closed
markets. That is the huge opportunity here that few have the skills or
background to properly navigate. These are still hard to win supply lines, but
there are openings there.

Congrats Kim and Emily!

~~~
mc32
This is a great idea and hopefully offers another opportunity for some of the
farmers there and helps grow their economy one step at a time.

------
kimboleek
Hi friends, I'm Kim, the CEO of Rumi. We're so excited to be one of the YC
fellows, and we would love to answer any questions if you have any. Shoot! And
buy saffron please- makes excellent gifts.

~~~
0xmohit
I thought that you would be shipping internationally. Appears to be limited to
the US.

~~~
kimboleek
Great question. We do ship internationally for B2B orders but must contact us
directly. Info@rumispice.com. Otherwise it doesn't make any sense for us to
service customers directly to other countries unless we can find a distributor

------
lnanek2
Pretty bizarre we haven't genetically modified a saffron yet to have more than
three little threads of spice produced per flower. Heck, considering the
variety our race managed to breed dogs into and the amount of change we
created in corn and other projects, you'd think we could have done that with
selective breeding alone.

------
rezashirazian
I come from an Iranian background and saffron is a staple in Iranian cuisine.
I'm not sure how much demand it would have in western cuisines, although
according to the article it's used in some spanish and french dishes. It would
be interesting to see where this goes.

~~~
pazimzadeh
I'm half French and half Iranian. I love saffron. It would be nice if the
local Mediterranean/Indian/Iranian restaurants had access to more saffron,
instead of diluting it with orange coloring.

------
6stringmerc
Please pardon my question if it's inappropriate, but isn't saffron prized for
psychoactive potential in the black market? I'm ignorant about the scale to
make it worthwhile considering this memory is based on some illegal logging
elsewhere in the world. I'm simply curious because rebuilding in Afghanistan -
or really any place that the world tends to ignore - is an absolutely human,
noble cause and I hope for positive outcomes!

~~~
aab0
I think you might be confusing saffron with poppies. Saffron is sufficiently
expensive and widely used in cuisine it's hard to see it being popular for any
psychoactive properties it might have compared to, say, nutmeg.

~~~
regrewarvreq
He is confusing it with sassafras, as I did upon first glance.

~~~
6stringmerc
Ah! Thanks! Good to know there's a strong market for a spice without the
baggage. Appreciate the clarification for sure.

------
roymurdock
I worked at a telecom company in Afghanistan a few years ago when the country
was relatively safe. I'd like to leave HNer's with some statistics that are
not included in the NYTimes article that might explain why it is so vital to
move any part of the agricultural crop away from opium:

Afghanistan's opium production currently goes into more than 90% of heroin
worldwide.

According to a UN doc cited on wikipedia, production reached a peak in 1999
with a bumper crop of 4,500 metric tons. [1] Shortly afterwards in 2000, 99%
of poppy cultivation in Afghanistan was wiped out by the Taliban, who
controlled Afghanistan with an iron fist and declared the cultivation of poppy
"un-islamic". This amounted to a 75% reduction in the world supply of opium.
So total world production was ~6,000 metric tons in 1999.

According to this 2014 UN report [2] the total area of opium poppy cultivation
in Afghanistan was estimated at 224,000 hectares with an average yield of
28.7kg/hectare. Converting this to metric tons: 224,000 * 28.7 / 1,000 = 6,429
metric tons of opium produced. Report cites a possible range from 5,100-7,800
metric tons produced.

So not only is Afghanistan back to pre-Taliban production levels, it is
producing more than the entire world production of opium in 1999. This is just
15 years after a 99% eradication of the crop in the region. Ironically, opium
production has ramped up massively since 2002, under US/Karzai governance.

The farm gate value of this opium is only $850m. Using an average of the
conversion ratios cited in the report (18.5:1 for pure heroin, 9.6:1 for
export-grade heroin) and a price of $60,000USD/kg of heroin [3] we get a total
processed value of $27.4bn. That's a crazy amount of value locked into
processing and distribution.

Any amount of possible change towards other crops will be hugely beneficial
for smaller-scale farmers who do not wish (or do not have the connections) to
sell into the drug trade, and who only see 1/30th of the processed value of
their crop. Not to mention it will be putting a dent in the world supply of
heroin.

This is an ambitious and well-intentioned project. I'm glad to see HN
sponsoring these types of ventures, especially as it falls outside the scope
of the tech world and does not have the TAM/SAM/SOM projections that I'm sure
VCs dream about. Good luck to the founding team, and stay safe.

[1]
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opium_production_in_Afghanista...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opium_production_in_Afghanistan#cite_ref-13)
[2] [https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-
monitoring/Afghanistan/...](https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-
monitoring/Afghanistan/Afghan-opium-survey-2014.pdf) [3]
[http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-drug-dealers-next-door-
how-n...](http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-drug-dealers-next-door-how-nyc-
heroin-mills-are-blending-in/)

~~~
refurb
Did the Taliban's crackdown on opium have any impact on heroin use? I'm going
to guess no.

~~~
roymurdock
If the global supply of heroin fell 75% the price would have increased
dramatically, reducing use.

~~~
vertex-four
If the global supply of heroin fell 75% the price would have increased
dramatically, increasing crime by drug users and keeping demand around the
same level.

Nobody says "I love heroin, but I'm going to stop because it's too expensive".

~~~
DelaneyM
You'd be surprised.

Narcotics are remarkably fungible, much to the disappointment of drug
enforcement agencies and social workers.

I spend a few hours a week at a transitional house for folks who've been down
on their luck (homeless or no fixed address) and are trying to get into the
support system. Most are dealing with addiction.

When you ask what they're taking, they often have a long equation of how much
they take of X when they can't get Y, and how much of Z takes the edge off Y
when their dealer is unavailable or they can't afford it, etc. Many have
managed to get into a long cycle of a number of different substances, each
being a transitional drug off the last. Since this is a behavior pattern
they're used to, we're getting a lot of mileage using (now legal) marijuana as
a bridge to sobriety whey they're not willing to submit to detox.

I'm 100% confident that if heroin doubled in price tomorrow usage would drop
through the floor, but unfortunately addiction would be pretty stable.

