
Uber Is Taking Millions of Manhattan Rides Away from Taxis - rhayabusa
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/uber-is-taking-millions-of-manhattan-rides-away-from-taxis/
======
CodeSheikh
I would take Uber over rude Manhattan cabbies any day. My personal experience
with Manhattan taxi drivers after living in NYC for last two years.

1) They drive as if they are on a rally track. I have had never experienced
motion sickness before until I moved to Manhattan.

2) If you ignore the tip or tip them in the range of $1-3 you get snarky
remarks from them.

3) If you try to hail a cab and (regrettably) ask the taxi driver to drive you
to a place where their chances of hailing a passenger back are slim then they
will rudely turn you away (Tip: First hop in then tell the direction. It is a
NYC law).

I can go on and on but point being Uber is the much needed necessary evil in
scarce resource cities like Manhattan.

~~~
brianwawok
Here is the problem

1) Uber comes in pays well - sources on the net for hip drivers - You get
awesome English speaking nice drivers

2) Uber starts to drop rates

3) Good Uber drivers quit for lack of pay, existing cabbies start to drive for
Uber

4) You end up getting the same cabbies as before Uber, but with surge pricing.

It takes a while, but eventually it ends back up in the same exact place as
before :( Totally happened in Chicago in front of my eyes.

~~~
mbca
The quality of Uber drivers in San Francisco has dropped all the way to the
point where I simply will not try to use Uber anywhere near downtown. They
will accept the ride and the app will show they are "1 minute" away, however
it will often take upwards of 15 minutes for them to reach me because they
don't know their way around the city and are confused by all the one-way
streets in downtown. I promise I"m not exaggerating, it really does take that
long. I've stood there and watched them on the map spending 10-15 minutes
driving very long distances _away_ from me before finally turning in the right
direction and painfully, slowly, starting to get closer. It's ridiculous.

If I'm in downtown or SOMA, I will use a taxi (either hailing or using
Flywheel). It's usually a huge time saver (and there's no "surge" pricing
either).

~~~
goondabba
That's more the Uber app's fault than the driver's. I've chatted with drivers
about this; the app doesn't actually tell you where the pickup is, it just
starts the navigation. It seems to be a security measure.

~~~
jzwinck
This might explain why the only time I used Uber the driver did not understand
where to find me. I was outside near a fence opposite the expressway. He was
told by the app to stop on the expressway and pick me up. This despite my
entering the street address when booking. It wasted one person hour of time.
The driver told me he can't make more than minimum wage with Uber, he just
does it as a hobby.

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vermontdevil
For a deaf or deaf-blind person, Uber is a godsend. As many would tell you,
getting into a random cab is a tough task. Often we have a written address
only for the cab to kick us out, ignore the address, or just can't read it.

Then they would try to rip us off by driving long routes when we know it's bs.
It's hard to argue with them afterwards.

Forget about calling a cab company for a pickup. They almost never show up.
It's maddening.

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jessriedel
The author takes pickups as a measure of congestion, but as they (sort of)
admit much later on in the article, this is a bad measure.

The argument of regulators is that, in the absence of proper congestion
pricing for cars on the road, the market equilibrium for number of taxis per
inhabitant will be higher than is efficient. That's how they justify a cap on
the number of cabs. (It increases wait times but, they argue, it is worth it
for the fewer number of cars on the road causing congestion).

So the question isn't "are there more Manhattan pick-ups after Uber entered
the market?", it's "are there more cars on Manhattan street?" or "Have average
trip times in Manhattan increased?".

~~~
Spooky23
It's more than that. There's a finite number of people seeking a ride, it's a
zero sum market where the supply of rides will crash, and Uber will jack up
the rates.

Uber ultimately will have enormous leverage to submarine any meaningful
competition and even to displace public transit. Their national scope will
make them a force to be reckoned with.

~~~
mgob
The idea that uber will replace public transit in NYC is laughable. Sure,
there is a group of rich yuppies (and their parents) that will gladly give
uber their business, but NYC's transit system serves a much, much broader
demographic of customers that cannot and/or will not to pay ten dollars or
more every time they want to get around the city.

~~~
slimslam
Laughable? Check out the theory of disruptive innovation. From
[http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-
explains/2015/01/ec...](http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-
explains/2015/01/economist-explains-15):

"The theory of disruptive innovation was invented by Clayton Christensen, of
Harvard Business School, in his book “The Innovator’s Dilemma”. Mr Christensen
used the term to describe innovations that create new markets by discovering
new categories of customers. They do this partly by harnessing new
technologies but also by developing new business models and exploiting old
technologies in new ways. He contrasted disruptive innovation with sustaining
innovation, which simply improves existing products. Personal computers, for
example, were disruptive innovations because they created a new mass market
for computers; previously, expensive mainframe computers had been sold only to
big companies and research universities."

~~~
pavel_lishin
Okay, but Uber literally cannot put enough cars into the city to move five
million people around every day, and they're sure as shit not going to dig
their own tunnels.

~~~
codyb
They raised just North of a billion dollars [0] in September, the 2nd Ave
Subway is expected to cost $4.5b [1] for 1.5m of track, three new stops, and a
new entrance at an old stop. So yea, you can be sure as shit they're not
building their own tunnels. At least not here.

[0] - [https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/uber/funding-
rounds](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/uber/funding-rounds) [1] -
[http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/31/news/economy/nyc-subway-
cons...](http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/31/news/economy/nyc-subway-
construction/)

~~~
larrys
Obviously building a subway is not just having the money to build the subway.
Anywhere.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Avenue_Subway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Avenue_Subway)

------
suneilp
I can't say I'm sorry to hear taxis lose business. Uber is being innovative
and I like it. Taxi drivers, from what I understand, have been getting shafted
for a long time by a corrupt system.

Uber drivers might not be making bank, but from what I can tell they are doing
better. If I'm wrong about please correct me, I'd love to hear some feedback
on that.

I often ask Uber drivers if the pay is worthwhile since I don't want to be
supporting something that is screwing people over. So far it all seems
positive for the most part.

~~~
ihsw
I often ask Uber drivers the same and the response is generally:

* the pay is _decent_ (ranging from a hair above minimum wage to a healthy and sustainable source of income)

* the benefits are _non-existent_ (most don't seem bothered by this)

* the job security is _guaranteed_ (a huge plus)

* the work schedule is _at their discretion_ (another huge plus)

* the work environment is _quite good_ (passengers are usually very friendly, you work from the comfort of your car, the on-boarding process is quick and painless)

All in all it's a net benefit for most people, in terms of quality of life and
financial stability. What's not to love?

 _Note: this is all purely anecdotal and most drivers I have spoken to have
been working for <1 year, in most cases <6 months._

~~~
josh2600
"Job security guaranteed"... That's so ludicrous, I don't know where to begin.
Forget driverless cars for a moment and think about the fact that a few bad
ratings can remove your ability to earn income from this source forever.

Put another way, if a few someones you give a ride to rate you low, you lose
your ability to earn. That's hardly "guaranteed"... I would certainly contrast
it with the current model of "at-risk" employment we have now, but the
certainty of your word choice feels facetious at best.

~~~
prostoalex
It seems taxi services would also be quick to fire if a series of customer
complaints emerged, so not sure how Uber's model is strictly inferior to
status quo.

~~~
suneilp
I have to agree. I love the fact that it's easier to rate drivers and I'm
always judicious in rating drivers. I always give drivers 5 ratings if they
don't have issues.

There are complainers out there but from feedback I've gotten after commenting
on a driver once I suspect Ube at least attempts to handle those kinds of
situations.

------
linkregister
It appears that Uber significantly improved the coverage for the more
economically and ethnically diverse boroughs of NYC:

(from the article):

    
    
     	CHANGE IN APRIL-JUNE PICKUPS, 2014 TO 2015
        BOROUGH 	 	UBER 	        TAXI 	        NET
        Brooklyn 	 	+1,123,969 	+299,388 	+1,423,357
        Queens 	 	+655,525 	+191,974 	+847,499
        Manhattan 	 	+4,045,735 	-3,685,504 	+360,231
        Bronx 	 	+126,283 	-265 	        +126,018
        Staten Island 	+3,920 	        +192 	        +4,112
        Manhattan (core) 	+3,818,179      -3,830,621      -12,442
    

This lends credence to the accusations that taxi drivers exhibit racial
discrimination and underserve economically disadvantaged areas.

~~~
colmvp
As a person who often had to deal with Manhattan cabbies who would lock me out
if I dare mention Brooklyn: Good. Fuck those assholes.

------
cmurf
I can pretty much guarantee the city will find a way to screw this up, one way
or another. There is a pile of money behind the monopolies called medallions.
Those owners expect their monopoly enforced, or why bother? Clearly going into
debt to buy a newish card to get better Uber rates is a better economic
decision than going into debt to buy a medallion which doesn't directly do
jack squat for you. So the city in turn will want its cut somehow: it'll be a
tax, or a fee, or both, probably multiple fees.

A while ago the city found income taxes weren't enough, and the state and feds
didn't give them enough, so there's a separate NYC income tax. And then that
wasn't enough so if you're a small business there's a separate unincorporated
business tax. It's not enough to just add a new line or worksheet to compute
this tax, it's a whole separate form, a whole separate set of duplicative
questions, a separate mailing address, a separate check. And then that wasn't
enough so they created the MCTMT income tax, which again is a separate form,
separate mailing address, and its own check.

The tax amount isn't as costly as the additional bureaucracy generated at both
ends of the equation. Raise the rate? Nah. Add a new line for computation?
Nah. They want completely separate offices, forms, addresses, and their own
check.

Oh and each one of those wants separate estimated income tax payments made 4x
per year. It's just insane.

~~~
Laaw
This is one of those things that even the people in positions of power won't
ruin because they're users as well. You think members of city council or
whomever want to ride in taxis any more than you do?

------
gregwtmtno
What I find interesting is that Uber doesn't seem to be having an effect on
private car use.

From the article, in the busiest part of New York, "Uber gained 3.10 million
pickups, while taxis lost 3.09 million."

I read this to say that almost every Uber ride would have been a taxi ride if
Uber did not exist. It doesn't seem to be replacing private car use at all. If
it were, we'd see Uber rides increasing faster than taxis ride are decreasing.

~~~
egocodedinsol
how much private car usage is there, actually, in Manhattan?

~~~
mizchief2
Nobody drives; there is too much traffic

~~~
thoman23
Perfect! RIP Yogi Berra.

------
soyiuz
I think the discussion on Uber often misses the point. Uber is not disrupting
the Taxi business. Look at the endgame: in most unregulated markets Uber
simply becomes another hail and route management app for an existing taxi
fleet.

Uber is therefore primarily disrupting the shit electronics powering the
current "yellow cab" style cabs. These include the meter, the dispatcher and
radio system, and the advertisement screen. That is the real source of
disruption.

The ratings etc. are just noise to poach costumers away from taxis. Or more
correctly, to force taxis to adopt Uber as logistics provider. Once monopoly
is established the consumer-facing niceties become irrelevant. Nothing
prevents Uber from lowering their minimum ratings requirements, for example.

~~~
Steko
Uber pretty clearly has two main innovations:

(1) the efficiency of the app/gps combo vs traditional cab dispatch. This
seems fairly easy to copy by incumbents and new entrants and in fact being a
private company operating your own network has shown some weaknesses (ghost
cars injected into map to fool customers, drivers not given accurate pickup
info to protect from competitors which delays pickup, etc.)

(2) the quasi-legal setup of "we will pick you up and take you to somewhere
else for money but we're not a taxi company" that allows them to disrupt the
medallion ecosystem where it exists. This advantage only manifests in areas
where supply has been heavily and artificially constrained and disappears once
the medallion bubble has been burst.

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nextweek2
I am pleased with progress but it does seem like Uber is on track to be the
next PayPal, eBay, Facebook.

Ten years down the line are drivers going to be complaining about the Uber tax
after a price hike?

~~~
Agustus
Ten years down the line the drivers will be replaced by automated vehicles.

------
bettyx1138
Uber is a superior service compared to NYC taxis. If NYC taxis want to
compete, they should use clean cars (!!) and get an app on the market!

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pavornyoh
>New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio took aim at Uber this summer, trying (and
failing) to set a cap on the number of its for-hire cars operating in the
city.

They should stop trying to take aim at Uber and use the opportunity to learn
from them. They should study why Uber is so successful and what they - the
taxi company can do to compete. It is the only way they stand a chance.

------
slr555
I take cabs and cars everyday in Manhattan. It is as hard or harder to get a
yellow cab than it has been in the 25 years I have lived in the city. My
routine goes like this; if I can't get a cab in 10 minutes, I get an Uber. I
end up taking Uber a lot more than I would like but that is just how it is. I
am not only trying during rush hour and rain storms. Even in "light" volume
hours getting a medallion cab is not easy. The providers that have been hurt
the most by Uber are the old gypsy cab companies. These were TLC "black cars",
usually beat up old town cars that were dispatched by radio. Their system of
radios and dispatchers has been decimated by Uber. The drivers of those cars
have in large part become Uber drivers.

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tobinharris
Uber isn't just taking bookings away from taxis, it's taking drivers. It would
be interesting to see a study of how cab company fleet sizes change after Uber
arrives in town.

Uber raised the bar in terms of user experience, so the industry is scrambling
to react. No harm with a little competition. My company (Pocketworks) do a
taxi app in the UK that's effectively competing with Uber.

Does anyone know if Ubers long term plan is around disrupting logistics?
Having a network of drivers that can move anything on demand would be really
powerful.

------
vhold
The most awesome part is they put the data, and some of the Freedom of
Information correspondence that led to them getting this data on github:

[https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/uber-tlc-foil-
response](https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/uber-tlc-foil-response)

------
oleganza
The title should have been "Millions of Manhattan riders prefer Uber to
taxis".

------
tmaly
I wish Connecticut had more uber drivers

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ps4fanboy
There is literally no reason why the taxi industry cant provide the exact same
service and UX as Uber, but they continue to refuse to catch up.

------
fjordames
I think the word "earning" is what the author meant.

~~~
exstudent2
Yes, why "taking"? What Uber is doing is obviously working.

Pre-Uber days, getting a cab in NY was painful. You can't call them to come
pick you up. More often than not, the cabbie will complain about taking a
credit card or just say the machine is broken. Rides TO the airport are a
mixed bag of using the fixed fare vs the cabbie encouraging you to go off of
it.

Are there are legitimate complaints about Uber that don't come from the
standpoint of defending the incumbent cab industry? I just don't get the
constant hate they receive.

~~~
marcoperaza
>I just don't get the constant hate they receive.

Everyone is looking out for number one (themselves), so the protected cab
industry is going to fight uber tooth and nail. They'd be stupid not to. Any
protected industry would do the same. It's on the rest of us to see that for
what it is.

------
ilaksh
Wow, I didn't realize there still was a taxi industry in Manhattan. Thought
Uber had taken over.

I guess its actually slightly harder in an area like that to compete with cabs
because there are lots of cabs and you can just wave one over. Although the
app is pretty easy to use.

Do the taxi companies have an app now like Uber and are they competitive in
pricing and pickup times?

~~~
odonnellryan
I don't think there is an app, but yes, there are certainly a ton of yellow
cabs still in NYC.

