
Tesla’s success in Europe catches industry off guard - prostoalex
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/business/tesla-europe-success.html
======
ggm
Car purchase includes a huge amount of 'non rational actor' decision making. I
like old jaguars. Walnut burr, doors that go "thunk" -in every sense (fuel
economy, NCAP, reliability) they are irrational purchase: I still love them.
And the Citroen DS19.

EVs are in a segment with high discretionary spend. Choices in discretionary
spending are notoriously bound up in non-rational choices: I could invest in
diamonds, or snort it as coke, or fly to the bahamas in a helicopter is
totally different lifestyle choices to "I need to get to Walmart at 3am for
diapers, and I cannot afford to pay for more than basic AirConditioning"

When EVs are in the segment of rational-decision bound purchases, when they
are "boring" I will deem them to have succeeded.

As long as the competition is Fiskar, not VW, and Not the Ioniq, or other
Japanese low-end EV, its not baked yet.

The low-end EV have to get about 50% more efficiency and drop price about 30%.
There really is a sweet spot in most people's disposable income and on-road
costs and range anxiety (also a highly irrational place btw) which is just
around the corner:

under $20,000 in any local economy over 300km range in real-life chargeable
for usable amounts (10%? 20%?) in under 15min

~~~
imglorp
I think a lot of Tesla is simply that they're not the other guys. They're
giving people what they want. The dinosaurs have been refusing to innovate in
many areas, screwing customers with exploitive dealer networks, dragging their
feet on features when it's demanded of them, or just plain making everything
miserable about cars for decades. The dinosars deserve to get their ass handed
to them until they wake up and serve customers.

~~~
fxtentacle
I think a big part of Tesla is plain old dishonesty, or American bragging, if
you want to call it that way.

Consumers want autonomous self-driving cars. So Tesla creates marketing videos
and then calls their glorified lane assistance and distance keeping assistant
an "autopilot".

And now, Tesla buyers are frustrated that the software isn't ready yet, or
dying due to bugs in said software.

But Tesla gets to dodge legal responsibility by writing into the fine print of
their EULA that the so-called "autopilot" isn't actually meant to be used like
what autopilot means to most people.

If anything, Tesla has amazing marketing.

~~~
dr_dshiv
I ride in Teslas when that's what the Uber driver drives. Maybe other cars
have the same wow experience, but I don't get picked up in a Porsche or
Jaguar. But the wow experience of a Tesla vs a Benz is unquestionable.

I don't mind it being called marketing. But I'd call it overall experience
design. Or magic. You really feel it!

~~~
fxtentacle
Pretty much all the Uber Black trips that I took were traditional BMW like the
ones that taxis in Germany use.

I agree that's boring.

But it only is boring because BMW has such a crushing market share that the
occasional non-BMW car feels like a breath of fresh air. Tesla feeling nice
due to their low market share is, however, the opposite of what this article
argues for.

~~~
lexs
Sidenote: taxis in Germany are typically Mercedes, rarely BMW

------
jupp0r
I don't know if it's just me, but I find most non Tesla electric cars to be
incredibly ugly. If BMW made an electric 3 class sedan with > 350 miles of
range for a reasonable price, I think that would be hugely successful. Instead
they made the i3.

The VW ID.3 looks like it would have the same problem. I know this is very
subjective, but why not make a car that looks more like their already
successful models?

~~~
d1zzy
I'm the opposite, I find Teslas to be (externally) ugly. In general I find any
large sedan to be ugly. I don't get the sedan form factor, it seems to waste a
lot of space. I've always owned hatchbacks because I like the way they look
and they seem much more practical to me how I can bend the seats and carry a
ton of stuff in the back (which I take advantage of at least once a month).

~~~
jdhn
>I'm the opposite, I find Teslas to be (externally) ugly.

I'm 100% with you. The X is one of the most awkward looking SUV's ever made,
and the 3 looks awkward past the C pillar. In my opinion their best looking
vehicle is the S because it looks correctly proportioned, and also because it
has the semblance of a grille, even though it's just black plastic and doesn't
actually function as a ICE car's grille.

~~~
Hamuko
Similar thoughts on the Model S. And I find the Model S facelift much worse
than the original design due to the "look, it's not a grill design", where
they don't have a grill, but they have an awkwardly shaped flat spot anyways.
Porsche Panamera is a much better example of a grilleless design.

As for the upcoming Roadster, that looks smashing. Too bad it's massively
expensive.

------
lloeki
I find it a very strange coincidence that the recent law in France to update
the tax incentives against CO2 emitters and towards EV placed a new,
previously nonexistent limit precisely right below the base Tesla price,
excluding everything above (and thus every Tesla car) from the incentive.

As it turns out, local EV cars such as the Renault Zoe are below the
threshold, not the least because you buy the car but rent the battery, so the
price appears much lower to the consumer, and the price of the battery is
magically not factored in against the threshold.

~~~
londons_explore
France is well known for lawmaking to help companies with french values
outcompete rivals.

Airbus wanted to build a new freeway through a protected forest to deliver
planes on, but EU rules prevented it. Instead they built the road and put a
thin surface of gravel on top so they could claim it was a "forest track", and
it became legal.

~~~
xutopia
Do you think any other countries are different?

~~~
londons_explore
Some countries have far more rigid rules with less interpretation flexibility,
which allows less flexibility for favouring some companies over others.

Other countries are just bad at getting anything done, for local or foreign
companies.

------
JackPoach
This title is highly misleading. Tesla isn't incredibly successful 'in
Europe'. It's very successful in VERY few European countries (Netherlands,
Norway). And it's due to local incentives mostly. You aren't going to be blown
away by a number of Teslas in Italy or Greece or Poland or France. But when
you walk through Amsterdam - yes, there are a ton of Teslas parked everywhere.

~~~
Doctor_Fegg
Very much this. I think I’ve seen a single-figure number of Teslas here in the
UK, ever. (I presume there are more in London but I don’t live there...)

~~~
auiya
I was just in London for a week not too long ago. I saw about the same number
of Teslas as I did pick up trucks, which is to say hardly any at all.

------
CydeWeys
The same thing is happening to traditional automobile manufacturers now as
what happened to the likes of Kodak and Xerox when the digital revolution
came. They'll deny that the change is happening until it's way too late, and
then become obsolete. Even when any outsider can look at the industry and say
it's obvious that the future is electric and any manufacturer that hasn't
already seriously dived into making EVs is being stupid.

And yet, here we are ...

~~~
rootusrootus
GM has announced what, 22 EVs in the next couple years? I don't think they're
in any danger of becoming obsolete due to Tesla. If anything, Tesla should be
getting worried. When competition heats up people will start caring more about
reliability, features, and looks.

~~~
intopieces
Did GM announce a charging network? Most people may be able to charge at home,
but they also want peace of mind the 1 time a year they travel on a road trip.

I picked Tesla for my next EV because of the charging stations. Level 2 and
even CHAdeMO and CCS are just too slow, and there’s not enough of the latter
two.

~~~
bradlys
I don't think the vast majority are buying electric cars with it being their
only vehicle. Aren't 80% of Tesla owners also homeowners? Likely living with a
spouse, who has a non electric car for those longer road trips. And maybe a
Tesla owner uses the Tesla network for road trips but I think the majority of
electric owners without a network have a gas car too.

Even then, I think those buying an electric can afford air travel.

------
Doctor_Fegg
ITT: lots of Americans responding to an article about the European
car/mobility market with their exclusively American experience.

~~~
TulliusCicero
I'm an American, but I live in Germany, specifically Munich, the home of BMW.
Been seeing more and more Teslas around lately for sure.

While Musk has said and done some dumb things, I'm still rooting for Tesla.
Beyond the fact that electric cars are cool and good, I like the fact that
Tesla is shaking the industry up, especially that they don't use dealerships,
which are frequently scummy and often outright predatory. That we've tolerated
them exploiting the ignorant or unwise for so long is a black mark against us
as a society.

------
georgeecollins
Leaving aside (and I know this hard) the controversy of Tesla's valuation,
Elon Musk and the environmental virtues of electric cars, think what a
historic success Tesla is as a car company. There have been dozen(s) of car
companies started in the US since WW2 and you could argue that not one of them
has been a success. The biggest Kaiser Motors, has probably been surpassed.

For decades American and Japanese manufacturers have tried to compete with
European luxury brands. American companies had almost no success and Japanese
very little. Lexus does well, but it never displaced German car sales the way
Tesla is now. I am not a Tesla fanboy, but I do like cars. You have to respect
the product.

~~~
djehh3r7d
That didn't leave the controversy behind at all, most of the controversy is
far past their valuation. Tesla is only interesting as a car company to people
who are willing to lower their expectations below those placed on the actual
car companies.

They market themselves as environmentally friendly while representing a
comedically small percent of global emissions reduction. And within the auto
industry itself the increasing efficiency of ICE vehicles has reduced
emissions by far more than Tesla and their electric car hype.

At the same time, they advocate infrastructure expansions to accomodate their
vehicle's needs while handwaving away the emissions and environmental
consequences this process would create. And every time this is mentioned
people just blubber some line about the long term while covering their ears to
the tide of environmentalists saying that we need change /now/.

They might conquer Europe through legislation but the only reason that's
practical is because European countries are tiny so the range issue is less
relevant to them. Tesla hasn't actually cleared their hurdles, they've
surrendered to them.

Meanwhile, they drum up this idea that Tesla's can be more than toys for rich
people even though no one blue collar who isn't already a hard fan chooses a
Tesla. In fact, speaking of legislation, they're so uncompetitive that Europe
has to ban ICE engines for them to gain ground.

Even you framed this as Tesla competing against luxury brands, key word being
luxury. This world where they've paved the way for cheap mainstream electric
vehicles is a fantasy. They've paved the way for novelty in the luxury market
and since doing so have shown little aptitude beyond their ability to wield
that accomplishment as a shield to deflect criticisms.

~~~
random314
You should self reflect about how incredibly bitter you sound.

Tesla is a new successful electric car company that is helping with CO2
emission reduction. Nothing in your rant challenges this.

~~~
mehrzad
And how are the emissions of electric car and car battery production looking?

~~~
CydeWeys
Over the lifetime of the vehicle, much better than an ICE vehicle.

~~~
mehrzad
Compared to used cars and public transit though, it doesn't nearly look as
good. I like Tesla, but there is a lot more to be done before I consider their
work truly environmentally friendly.

~~~
AnthonyMouse
Nobody manufactures used cars. They all start as new and they all have a
finite lifetime as a result of wear and collisions.

A used electric car is better for the environment than a used ICE car, but the
only way to get used electric cars is to make new electric cars.

~~~
mehrzad
Isn't it better for society to focus on improving public transit than
electric? You could say "we don't have to choose" but it seems SV already did.

------
Yhippa
How much of a head start does Tesla have over traditional ICE-based auto
manufacturers? It feels like a 10-year head start from my uninformed opinion.
It will take a lot of work to change engineering ops, supply chains, and deal
with pensions.

~~~
foepys
Not really. German car companies buy most of the parts from suppliers. Those
suppliers often have decades of experience with electric motors and batteries,
see Bosch. If a supplier only does ICE components, they are out and the car
company will find a new supplier.

~~~
dillonmckay
“ I talk here about Tesla as an existential thread for the German automotive
industry, and why that is real and backed up with facts.”

[https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/25/tesla-an-
uncomfortable-...](https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/25/tesla-an-
uncomfortable-wake-up-call-for-germany-all-hands-on-deck/)

------
raphaelj
Aside luxury cars, it seems like German manufacturers are also losing against
French manufacturers in the electric compact car market.

Peugeot and Renault are having a decent success with their latest cars:
[https://uk.motor1.com/news/401562/europe-ev-sales-
january-20...](https://uk.motor1.com/news/401562/europe-ev-sales-
january-2020/)

~~~
tonyedgecombe
VW are on the verge of launching the ID.3, it will be interesting to see the
figures in a years time.

------
w-m
Tesla seems to be somewhat ahead in technology - their range is currently
higher than in the Porsches/Audis/... and the software seems quite a bit more
advanced.

Tesla can use this to their advantage to sell more cars while the traditional
automakers play catchup. But eventually they will get closer.

And Volkswagen alone can introduce dozens of new models every year, based on
their building blocks (MEB) and numerous brands. There will be cars this year
from 15.000€ (VW e.Up and friends) to 150.000€ (Porsche Taycan), and a few
others in between. VW alone plans to introduce 70 electric models in the
coming years.

How will Tesla, who did 4 models in ten years, compete with the sheer breadth
of this market? Looking at what’s parked in the street, people choose lots of
different types of cars, there’s no one-fits-all.

~~~
Infinitesimus
> How will Tesla, who did 4 models in ten years, compete with the sheer
> breadth of this market? Looking at what’s parked in the street, people
> choose lots of different types of cars, there’s no one-fits-all.

Imagine this argument:

"How will Apple, who only has one phone model, compete with the sheer breadth
of this market? Looking at what’s in people's hands, people choose lots of
different types of phones, there’s no one-fits-all."

Yet here we are. Having so many car models is frankly exhausting.

One of my silly little hobbies is trying to spec out cars online I dream of
buying and everything becomes a chore after the first 10 seconds. Options that
I don't want to think about being nickel-and-dimed for, features that should
come standard but require an upgrade 'package' I dont want etc.

Until they change how they think about cars, Tesla will keep beating them in
the market in the price ranges Tesla competes in. And shit will hit the fan if
Tesla ever figures out a way to make a much cheaper car for the mass market

~~~
veggieburglar
Apple is currently selling six different iPhone models on its website.

~~~
Infinitesimus
Yep, but they didn't launch with all 6. In fact, they added each one after
tremendous market pressure (larger phones, multiple sizes, a one-handed
budget-friendly model).

Tesla might very well have 10 cars in the future but for now, buying a Tesla
is an easy decision: 1\. Do I want a big sedan? Model S 2\. Do I want a big
suv? Model X 3\. Do I want a smaller sedan? Model 3 4\. Do I want a smaller
suv/crossover/cuv? Model Y

And just like apple, you get very similar experience across the entire lineup.
Autopilot, automatic updates, etc. Not "Well, you can buy the
lexus/bimmer/merc if you want a more luxurious experience but the base model
is honestly just okay so you should probably get a specced out mid-tier car
instead unless you have the $$ to spend on a top trim"

------
anentropic
> One of the Model 3’s big selling points is its autonomous driving software

Is it really though?

It's not something I would ever want to use in its current form (which I
understand is not safe enough to leave 'unattended', as it were, so so it
seems to fall into a dangerous valley where it's autonomous enough that I
don't have to pay full attention but also inadvisable not to)

I'm pretty sure the main selling points are all around the electrification -
superior range to other electric competitors plus the running cost benefit of
electric vehicles in urban areas with pollution taxation.

------
throwsprtsdy
> But, while technically innovative, with a carbon-fiber body, the i3 is
> essentially a very expensive hatchback.

Yep. When people buy high performance or luxury cars, part of the mystique is
that it is the latest evolution of some sort of classic. It's going to be hard
for BMW et al to position electric vehicles as belonging to any existing
lineage. This puts their brand at risk unless they can figure out how to make
a remarkable electric car. But nobody really knows what that would be.

~~~
bch
This is storytelling on the part of the automakers, so let me propose 2:

1) Porsche’s got 120 years of work since their first electric car [0]

2) I remember pulling the leg of some Tesla fans a long while ago (maybe when
the first roadster came out) about how the “no radiator, front trunk, smooth
underbody” sounded a lot like the air-cooled VWs we’ve all been enjoying since
the 1930s.

The manufacturers will find a way...

[0] [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lohner-
Porsche](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lohner-Porsche)

------
DrScientist
Note luxury car market. It's all about brand, and quick acceleration times so
you can show off on the road.

New is cool & electric cars have acceleration.

Also German cars companies have had their reputation tarnished with the
emissions cheating scandal.

I wouldn't see the 'autopilot' feature as a big draw - you'd be mad to use
that on most European roads, and you buy cars like that to _drive_

------
dhosek
Pet peeve from the first line: bemusement means confusion, not amusement.

I remember when newspapers had editors who cared about what words meant.

~~~
landtuna
Bemused and nonplussed seem to have changed in meaning.

------
adaisadais
I often wonder what would have happened to the American auto industry if the
US Gov’t had not bailed them out. Would we have multiple Tesla-like electric
powered automobile companies today? Probably not. But just a thought.

~~~
hristov
Keep in mind that the government bailed Tesla out too. Tesla took a hefty
government loan before the model S roll-out. (It has been repaid now). So we
might have had exactly zero Tesla like electric powered car companies today.

~~~
grecy
The government did not "bail out Tesla". They lent them $465 million, and
Tesla paid it all back, plus interest, ten years before it was due. [1]

The government DID paid out GM, Chrysler and Ford. I.e. it lent $80.5 billion
dollars and $10 billion will never be repaid. [2] Taxpayers paid for that so
those companies can keep making private profits.

I wish this kind of misinformation would die, because it's so easy to google
and it's factual.

[1] [https://money.cnn.com/2013/05/22/autos/tesla-loan-
repayment/...](https://money.cnn.com/2013/05/22/autos/tesla-loan-
repayment/index.html)

[2] [https://www.thebalance.com/auto-industry-bailout-gm-ford-
chr...](https://www.thebalance.com/auto-industry-bailout-gm-ford-
chrysler-3305670)

~~~
nl
Note that the government didn't "bail out" Ford either:

 _The Ford Motor Company didn 't need the funds since it had already cut
costs. But it asked to be included so it wouldn't suffer by competing with
companies who already had government subsidies._ (from your link).

I can't find anything about the $10B that won't be repaid. Do you have further
details?

~~~
grecy
> _Note that the government didn 't "bail out" Ford either:_

OK sure. The government gave a private company taxpayer money that didn't need
it so it's profits wouldn't suffer.

> _I can 't find anything about the $10B that won't be repaid. Do you have
> further details?_

Last sentance in the first paragraph of my link says "In the end, taxpayers
lost $10.2 billion." (with a footnote to [0])

[0] [https://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/financial-
stability/TAR...](https://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/financial-
stability/TARP-Programs/automotive-programs/pages/default.aspx)

~~~
nl
>> Note that the government didn't "bail out" Ford either:

> OK sure. The government gave a private company taxpayer money that didn't
> need it so it's profits wouldn't suffer.

Agreed. Same as Tesla (in your words: "The government did not "bail out
Tesla". They lent them $465 million, and Tesla paid it all back, plus
interest, ten years before it was due.")

> Last sentance in the first paragraph of my link says "In the end, taxpayers
> lost $10.2 billion." (with a footnote to [0])

Thanks. Ironically that reference says "While the auto industry rescue
resulted in a cost of $9.3 billion to the government". I guess maybe they are
correcting for inflation?

~~~
grecy
> _Agreed. Same as Tesla (in your words: "The government did not "bail out
> Tesla". They lent them $465 million, and Tesla paid it all back, plus
> interest, ten years before it was due.")_

No, not the same at all. One was a loan (which was paid back plus interest),
while the other was a gift that will never be paid back.

~~~
nl
> No, not the same at all. One was a loan (which was paid back plus interest),
> while the other was a gift that will never be paid back.

From your linked article:

 _On June 23, 2009, Ford received a $5.9 billion loan from the Energy
Department 's Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing program.... Ford will
repay this loan by 2022._

(Note "loan".. "repay").

------
integricho
If Tesla went bankrupt, would all the other manufacturers just stop producing
/ developing electric cars? Are they doing it now just out of fear of losing
the market to Tesla?

If that were the case, for the sake of humanity and the environment, we should
be obliged to support Tesla exclusively, otherwise we will never free
ourselves from diesel / gas based pollution machines.

~~~
tenpies
Sort of depends on demand. Extremely cheap petrol - which we just got courtesy
of OPEC+ - and a recession - courtesy of COVID-19 - are not exactly a hot
market for new vehicles, much less luxury EV vehicles.

On the bright side, this might be excellent for the environment because the
best car for the environment is not a new car, it's to continue using the car
you already have.

------
richardknop
Personally, I don’t think the major move happening right now is from gasoline
cars to EVs. The major move is from cars to no cars. Tesla will not be a great
trillion dollar company in this scenario. It will be just another car
manufacturer.

~~~
lucasmullens
No cars? How do you leave a city? I could imagine a world filled with an
automated uber-like service of self-driving cars, but what would replace cars
for going to work in a small town?

~~~
tonyedgecombe
_No cars? How do you leave a city?_

Bikes, buses, trains.

------
jamisteven
Doesnt catch me off guard, europeans love modern, they love high tech, they
love american brands as status symbols and they are very, very environmentally
aware. Even if the Tesla isnt all that better than the really small engine's
already in most cars here, it is perceived as a social statement and
lifestyle. Not to mention it is unique compared to all the AUDI/VW/BMW's on
the road here.

------
classified
Is this some kind of bloody joke? In how much of a deep sleep do you have to
be to be caught "off guard" by Tesla?

------
neonate
[https://archive.md/TULea](https://archive.md/TULea)

------
rini17
I told my dealer 2years ago that I'm going to postpone replacing my kia cee'd
diesel till electric become available in that class. We aren't there yet, but
it's promising, now Kia/Hyundai do have couple of BEV models.

------
fmajid
The German car makers' arrogance and complacency cannot be overstated.

------
gryzzly
Like iPhone took Nokia "off guard" in 2009, after 2 years it was a thing.
These wise executives definitely deserve their big pay!

------
GrumpyNl
I dont know whats going on with those numbers but sales in Norway and Holland
are 80-90% down. They stopped with the tax benefits.

------
aSplash0fDerp
IMO, Tesla needs to branch into 80% complete coachbuilder models and in a
roundabout way, have a dealership in any town (or country) and shakeup the
industry a little more for sh!TS and giggles.

Once their production hits its stride and has a surplus of models, they can
bring oldworld craftsmanship to a modern canvas.

With the limited model lineup, who wouldn`t want a bespoke Tesla personalized
just for them.

I would still pick the 7-speed dogleg manual in the Vantage S, but a
personalized Tesla would be a close second.

------
Animats
I wonder what will happen in Japan. Toyota is still pushing hydrogen fuel
cells as the future and hybrids as the present.

~~~
reustle
My 2 cents, I don't know of any hydrogen fuel stations in Tokyo except for one
in Odaiba which seems shut down now.

------
baybal2
Competition is gooood!

What I don't conflate with "Iphone moment" is that European car companies are
not Nokias and there are no Elop style saboteurs in them. All of them are used
to "fight to bitter end" mentality, even though they haven't had such a moment
when they really needed to for a very long time.

------
tus88
Sounds like "industry" is as stupid as the short sellers.

------
olivermarks
I wonder whether Tesla will survive the current global economic contagion.
They are essentially a luxury novelty vehicle manufacturer that relies heavily
on subsidies and virtue signaling consumers of which there are a finite
amount. They are the WeWork of the car industry and have interesting
financials. Despite all this they have been a terrific r&d and mvp creator for
potential future electric vehicle production, although there is much work to
be done scaling electrical grids and vehicle recycling IMO

~~~
johnghanks
Now _this_ is a hot take.

