
Game Over: Genomic Prediction of Social Mobility - beefman
http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2018/07/game-over-genomic-prediction-of-social.html
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vannevar
Wealth is a difficult confounding factor to remove. The wealthier you are, the
faster you will become even wealthier, on average; in other words, the faster
your social mobility. Even if genetics played a role in the initial
accumulation of family wealth, that effect would be quickly eclipsed by the
wealth-generating power of capital itself.

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restuijs
1\. The polygenic effect is very small, r of .12 or .15 in the most stringent
analyses.

2\. The figures are pretty, but consider the restricted SES ranges, and the
dominance of origin SES. Someone in a low SES origin group with high polygenic
score was only reaching the lower middle class range in some cohorts. In
ADDhealth, which in many ways is the most representative modern US cohort,
there was very little effect of the polygenic score. Basically, origin SES has
a huge impact, beyond the polygenic score, especially in certain cohorts. And
this is within the restricted ranges of the figures.

3\. European ancestry participants only. Pretty obvious why this is a problem.

4\. There's some funny business with ages of parents relative to ages of
participants when assessed. E.g. in some cohorts participants are being
compared to the SES of their parents in young-mid adulthood, when they're in
mid or late adulthood.

