
Driverless Cars Get Green Light in California - codegeek
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49167063
======
lunaru
Industries that will be disrupted: \- Taxi, shuttles, buses and limo services
\- Truck drivers, Delivery, Food delivery (auxilary: train and air
transportation as well) \- Insurance industry \- Fleet management (time to
write an app for managing 1000+ automated self-driving vehicles) \- Policing.
We won't need the CHP much in the future

And that's just from ~20 seconds off the top of my head. I'm glad lawmakers
are allowing the future to happen and I hope this puts pressure on other
states to join in.

~~~
olalonde
It's fun to speculate on what will happen when driverless cars become
mainstream. Essentially, the question boils down to: "What would happen if
every car owner in the world suddenly had a 24/7 personal driver?"

\- 7 year old kids can now own and "drive" a car.

\- Need a lift? Ask your dad/friend to send his car to pick you up.

\- Forgot your laptop at home? Send your car back and ask your flatmate to put
your laptop in the car.

\- Leaving New York for some vacations in Miami? Take the plane and pick up
your car whenever it arrives.

\- Want to take a nap? Pull down the windows and windshield curtains.

\- Traveling abroad for a few weeks and don't know what to do with your car?
Set it to taxi mode and profit.

~~~
mahyarm
I think eventually, car ownership will go down significantly, since companies
managing fleets of electric cars can do it far more efficiently than private
ownership of long range cars. Uber is faster than walking to the car you
parked half a mile away. There's always 'free parking' for your large house
party in the city. You can also create small cargo only cars for small
deliveries like that laptop situation. It's far more efficient from an
energy/vehicle cost/liability stand point. Amazon prime 'local' might just
replace stores from a pure efficiency standpoint. The number of total cars
neccesary will decrease and the large amount of real estate devoted to cars
will decrease significantly. Car maintenance costs will decrease with
predictable schedules, and economies of scale that come with fleets.

~~~
nradov
Car sharing only works well for urbanites without children living with them.
The rest of us keep a lot of _stuff_ in our cars: strollers, child seats,
spare clothes, shopping bags, diapers, pens, ski racks, toys, first-aid kits,
etc. Even with computer driven cars I'll still be willing to pay a lot to
avoid the hassle of loading and unloading every day.

~~~
aptwebapps
What if you kept all your car stuff in some sort of modular compartments that
could be easily loaded and unloaded? At the moment there isn't much incentive
to do so, but that might change with this scenario.

What I'm getting at is while your argument seems sound, and may in fact
prevail, when you change one piece of the puzzle sometimes other solutions
become possible.

~~~
anamax
> What if you kept all your car stuff in some sort of modular compartments
> that could be easily loaded and unloaded?

Where am I going to put these containers when I don't have a rental car?

Lugging them back and forth to the house is not a practical option.

~~~
mseebach
Maybe your driveway is replaced by a compartment container. Maybe (certain
kinds of) cars will be able to automatically load the compartments. Or maybe
you're completely right.

~~~
anamax
> Maybe your driveway is replaced by a compartment container.

Lots of folks don't have driveways, garages, and so on.

More to the point, they may not be at a "personal storage location" when
they're dropping off the rental car.

~~~
mseebach
s/(driveway|garage)/$WhateverSpaceYouCurrentlyParkYourCarInThatWillBeEmptyIfYouAreRentingInsteadOfOwning/

~~~
anamax
I can't leave my stuff in the street, especially since it isn't the same
location every time I park. In other words, there's not necessarily a
dedicated space that will be empty if I'm renting instead of owning, let alone
one that I control

In fact, folks who don't have dedicated/owned spaces are probably the best
audience for rentals.

Moreover, even if I'm willing to take said stuff into my residence, I may need
said stuff on my way to the drop-off.

~~~
mseebach2
It's getting kinda pointless. I'm suggesting something that might happen in a
future where self-driving cars have completely disrupted _all_ of
transportation. You're countering "there's no dedicated space" - well, just
_maybe_ , that can change? It's not even a full space, it's just a "dock" to
load the containers.

In fact, even today, people who don't have a dedicated space (even if that
space shifts around a bit, ie. is a "pool" space on the street) _can't_ own a
car: Where would they leave it? People who are renters today already have to
deal with not leaving stuff in the car, so this discussion doesn't apply to
them.

Long story short: Your original argument was that not owning your own car will
not be be an option for you, because you leave a lot of stuff for your kids in
your car. My argument is that, with a bit of fantasy, maybe this isn't an
insurmountable obstacle.

> I may need said stuff on my way to the drop-off.

Why would you drive your self-driving vehicle to the drop-off?

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jamesaguilar
It'll be interesting to see whether and how much protectionist BS makes it
into the final regulations. I'm all for very strict safety regulations on
these vehicles. The first accident caused by one could set the industry back
decades, Challenger-style, unless the vehicles are so demonstrably safer that
legislators can resist the inevitable panic of their irrational constituents.
But I hope any such regulations are driven by the actual need to make the
vehicles safe, not by the desire on the part of existing stakeholders to make
the vehicles' introduction as painful and difficult as possible.

~~~
ahallock
Existing stakeholders will protect their turf and rely as you say on the
'panic of irrational constituents.' And it would be irrational given the
amount of human error already occurring--people falling asleep at the wheel,
texting, drunk driving, carelessness, etc. Also, the market will take care of
this without State regulations--who would want to purchase a perceived unsafe
vehicle?

~~~
khuey
A large part of the problem is that much of the total risk of driving is borne
by people other than the car's occupants. People in other cars, pedestrians on
the sidewalk, etc.

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arthurrr
I don't see this being disruptive at all. I think they will be adopted in
industrial applications, such as self driving dump trucks on mine sites, where
humans are not riding in the vehicle, and where there will be significant cost
savings.

There is also the human factor. People aren't going to give up their
livelihood quietly, and people won't be willing to trust their life to a
computer.

Also, who's going to control these vehicles, government? Does that mean that
the government has the power to redirect a car to anywhere they please,
depending on the passenger, who has been identified by facial recognition?

Trains/trams/buses are proven, already exist, and are a much better solution
for public transport.

~~~
mayneack
Does the driver have to be awake? Sleeping and driving can become the new
texting and driving.

------
guimarin
I predict that we will have to legislate Driverless as the default state of
all vehicles within the coming decade. why? because at greater than 10%
penetration of automated vehicles, those people still in 'manual' mode will
become more and more reckless.

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welp
Whether or not you believe in the climate crisis or global warming, I strongly
recommend all proponents of driverless cars to read The Energy Glut[1] in
order to get a good idea of one potential scenario of how America will end up
if every man and his dog can use a car to get anywhere. If anything, the
studies which are referenced in the book are rather hard to ignore.

As a quick example of the sort of thinking in this book: more cars on the road
means that there will be fewer people willing to risk being outdoors anywhere
near a road (i.e. most residential areas in this day and age), resulting in
higher levels of obesity. As more people become obese, fewer people are
willing to walk or cycle ever-decreasing distances, so they get a car --
increasing the number of cars on the road. After that, we enter a rather
vicious circle. The average weight of the world population will increase
rather quickly, and we will end up like the people in Wall-E. I'd rather ride
my bike, but thanks for the offer.

[1] <http://zedbooks.co.uk/paperback/the-energy-glut>

~~~
MordinSolus
Then let them be obese. It is not my responsibility to make sure other people
don't get fat. We shouldn't stifle innovation ( _if_ that's what you're
getting at) because we're scared that people will get.. even more fat.

And isn't obesity more about diet than it is exercise anyway?

~~~
welp
Hah, that's a fair approach. From what I can understand, obesity is more about
the lack of opportunities to exercise rather than the amount of calories eaten
(see [http://dc.streetsblog.org/2012/01/17/maps-show-striking-
corr...](http://dc.streetsblog.org/2012/01/17/maps-show-striking-correlation-
between-car-travel-and-obesity/) for an example, although obviously
correlation != causation). It seemed to be the case that as the number of cars
on the road increased, calorie intake actually went down.

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nancyhua
This is awesome and revolutionary. No more looking for parking spots- just
send the car to the nearest garage or back home. Also the cars could
coordinate to minimize traffic. So many possibilities!

~~~
ori_b
Not for a while: "The regulations would allow vehicles to operate
autonomously, but a licensed driver would still need to sit behind the wheel
to serve as a backup operator in case of emergency."

Given the current state of the technology, this makes sense. And in the
future, we may yet have fully driverless cars, instead of merely autonomous
ones.

Edit: The way google has been testing these cars, AFAIK, is through a special
"experimental vehicle" permit.

~~~
MiguelHudnandez
Indeed -- They'll have to be on the road for years before they are allowed to
operate without a person inside.

I have a few concerns about the short term ramifications.

1) The person behind the wheel can't do work, read, eat, or apply make-up if
their primary responsibility is to second-guess the computer. So the most
tantalizing benefit of being driven wherever you want is going to have to wait
until some future day.

2) A vehicle that obeys the speed limit and makes a full stop at stop signs is
going to infuriate some drivers. They should probably avoid matching the speed
of adjacent cars when possible, to prevent blocking aggressive drivers that
want to pass. These cars are probably going to avoid the fast lane.

3) I can see plenty of scenarios where an autonomous vehicle acts safely but
still gets in an accident. Slowing to avoid a collision could result in being
rear-ended, or a human driver might merge into the car because he failed to
check his blind spot. So there will be accidents. I assume the cars will have
to be rigged with video cameras and telemetry to prove that the car's
programming was not at fault.

~~~
danielweber
_They should probably avoid matching the speed of adjacent cars when possible,
to prevent blocking aggressive drivers that want to pass_

As a sibling comment said, this is unsafe. The Google car actively avoids
being in another car's blind spot as much as it can.

~~~
MiguelHudnandez
My concern is mostly for edge cases, like stretches of two-lane highway where
both lanes are going the same speed because of congestion. Is the car going to
fluctuate its speed often, to try to isolate itself from neighboring cars? Or
would it reduce its speed even further below the limit so that the left lane
is constantly passing?

Keeping the left lane moving faster is probably wisest, but it's going to
infuriate the drivers behind the autonomous vehicle, even though they're in
the slow lane.

How far would a car go to avoid being rear-ended? Would a tailgater be able to
cause the car to accelerate? At what point would the car stop trying to avoid
an accident because it's safer to get rear ended than continue avoiding? When
you put these things on the road, human drivers are going to start messing
with them.

------
tobyjsullivan
You just know this will lead to Google Street View getting updated a little
more often as the cars get to navigate themselves around constantly.

Oh right, except for this: "The regulations would allow vehicles to operate
autonomously, but a licensed driver would still need to sit behind the wheel
to serve as a backup operator in case of emergency."

~~~
kibwen
_"In 2009, Google obtained 3,500 miles of Street View images from driverless
cars with minor human intervention.[citation needed]"_

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_driverless_car>

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rbellio
I'd love to see other cars in their testing group too. Don't get me wrong, I
harbor no ill will towards Prius or their drivers, I just don't fit in them.

Public transit with these installed would be fabulous as well. You'd still
need someone behind the wheel as backup, but it would be great to have a
potentially tireless public transit system.

~~~
jamesaguilar
How big are you? The latest Prius is essentially a full-size sedan in terms of
the front seat. What kind of car do you prefer?

It's hard to imagine that this tech won't be available for all classes of cars
once it is sufficiently well tested.

~~~
rbellio
6'6" and built like an NFL lineman. Last time I got in one, I couldn't sit up
straight, my knees were resting on the dash and I couldn't close the door. I'd
prefer something in the full size category but would rather it was a van, SUV
or truck so I didn't have to squat down so low to get in. I do a lot of
outdoors stuff that takes me on some rough roads and I usually have need of
hauling and some cargo space.

------
lr--rw-rwx
Ok, driverless cars are cool, because they have this robot touch which is
appealing to computer scientists. Furthermore, we will get there eventually,
as they will drive saver and (without a driver) will decrease the costs for
transport and logistics industries.

But does it affect the average human? It just strikes me how many anecdotes I
read in connection with selfdriving cars ala' "calling the car to pick me up
from work".

Assuming that most HN users are from the US I can just conclude that public
transport is really bad and people do not use their bike there. E.g. most
people here (Europe) just do not need the service of a car in their daily
life. So in the end it's a logic step, but I do not think that it makes sense
to actually buy a self-driving car for yourself.

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enraged_camel
Isn't it a requirement for "driverless" cars to still have someone who can
take over control of the car during emergencies? I mean, the Google cars that
were driving had someone sitting in the passenger seat, I thought.

I don't think we'll see truly robotic cars anytime soon.

------
__jochen__
I welcome our robot overlords. I do wonder, however, who's going to do quality
assurance on these cars. The first startup launching MVP driverless cars with
a horrible accident record will set back the industry for years.

~~~
nuclear_eclipse
I think that's the whole point of setting out requirements that autonomous
vehicles must meet before going into production/sale. Just the same as current
car manufacturers have to meet certain safety requirements, in the future
manufacturers may have to prove some level of reliability, robustness, and
exception handling.

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kelliesmithe
Wow. Technology is really changing the world now. What's next? Flying
automated cars? I cant wait for the next invention! The government/inventors
should better make these driverless cars very functional and safe to use since
we all know that computers cannot think right away unlike human when it comes
to urgent incident situations. <http://sommer-solen.dk/cctv-have-en-
afskraekken..>.

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nradov
This is the big reason why high-speed rail in CA is a terrible idea and
destined to become an expensive white elephant. Driverless cars will start to
become available just about the time that the rail line is complete, after the
inevitable lawsuits, engineering problems, and construction delays. Why would
I buy a train ticket to LA and then deal with getting from the train station
to my final destination when my car can drive me directly door to door?

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sukuriant
So, as times change ... where will I be allowed to go to drive, myself..? For
people that enjoy driving; because, as has already been suggested by this
thread, these autonomous cars will probably be very boring on the road.

I suppose race-track memberships and racetracks will become more common --- or
perhaps they'll be like a horseman's club - a hobby for select members.

Maybe the USA could even get a Nürburgring ... or one per region.

~~~
khuey
Sure. We still allow people to fly planes, don't we?

I expect that once a drivers license is not a requirement to exist in much of
the US that the standards for being allowed to drive will be tightened
significantly though.

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olalonde
Does anyone else find it amazing that we have driverless cars but yet, most
subways and trains still require drivers/operators?

~~~
dag11
Unlike cars, trains can't stop on a dime if there's an obstruction on tracks.
Nor can they swerve to avoid it.

~~~
sparky
Is this an argument that a human driver is required? To me, it sounds like if
there's nothing you can do, the computer's job is much easier, not harder.

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squonk
I keep imagining the technology used with recreational vehicles. Spend a day
as a tourist in Chicago. Hop in the RV and go to sleep. Wake up in Memphis.
Visit Elvis, enjoy waffles & fried chicken, then hit the hay and wake up the
next day in Orlando. No down time.

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scarmig
What would be potential startups in this space? Besides the obvious "fleet of
driverless cars that drive people places."

It will be revolutionary, and Google is only going to get a plurality of the
profit that comes from it.

~~~
zrail
Curbside delivery. Build a truck that has a bunch of different little cubbies.
Load it up and send it around. App on the customer's phone beeps when the
truck arrives and gives them a locker number and an unlock code.

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ck2
Out of curiosity, what happens when someone spray paints the cameras on a car?

Because the car will stop if someone jumps in front of it right?

So it's a sitting target for a gang to vandalize it.

~~~
erikpukinskis
How is that different than slashing someone's tires?

Where do you live, Rio de Janeiro? I don't think there's a city in the U.S.
where "random disabling car vandalization for fun by gangs" is actually a
thing.

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codegeek
Imagine the possibilities.

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hbbio
Imagine your next Über driver.

